The effect of warmer winters on the demography of an outbreak insect is hidden by intraspecific competition

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goodsman, Devin W.; Grosklos, Guenchik; Aukema, Brian H.

Warmer climates are predicted to increase bark beetle outbreak frequency, severity, and range. Even in favorable climates, however, outbreaks can decelerate due to resource limitation, which necessitates the inclusion of competition for limited resources in analyses of climatic effects on populations. We evaluated several hypotheses of how climate impacts mountain pine beetle reproduction using an extensive 9-year dataset, in which nearly 10,000 trees were sampled across a region of approximately 90,000 km 2, that was recently invaded by the mountain pine beetle in Alberta, Canada. Our analysis supports the hypothesis of a positive effect of warmer winter temperatures on mountainmore » pine beetle overwinter survival and provides evidence that the increasing trend in minimum winter temperatures over time in North America is an important driver of increased mountain pine beetle reproduction across the region. Although we demonstrate a consistent effect of warmer minimum winter temperatures on mountain pine beetle reproductive rates that is evident at the landscape and regional scales, this effect is overwhelmed by the effect of competition for resources within trees at the site level. Our results suggest that detection of the effects of a warming climate on bark beetle populations at small spatial scales may be difficult without accounting for negative density dependence due to competition for resources.« less

The effect of warmer winters on the demography of an outbreak insect is hidden by intraspecific competition.

PubMed

Goodsman, Devin W; Grosklos, Guenchik; Aukema, Brian H; Whitehouse, Caroline; Bleiker, Katherine P; McDowell, Nate G; Middleton, Richard S; Xu, Chonggang

2018-05-29

Warmer climates are predicted to increase bark beetle outbreak frequency, severity, and range. Even in favorable climates, however, outbreaks can decelerate due to resource limitation, which necessitates the inclusion of competition for limited resources in analyses of climatic effects on populations. We evaluated several hypotheses of how climate impacts mountain pine beetle reproduction using an extensive 9-year dataset, in which nearly 10,000 trees were sampled across a region of approximately 90,000 km 2 , that was recently invaded by the mountain pine beetle in Alberta, Canada. Our analysis supports the hypothesis of a positive effect of warmer winter temperatures on mountain pine beetle overwinter survival and provides evidence that the increasing trend in minimum winter temperatures over time in North America is an important driver of increased mountain pine beetle reproduction across the region. Although we demonstrate a consistent effect of warmer minimum winter temperatures on mountain pine beetle reproductive rates that is evident at the landscape and regional scales, this effect is overwhelmed by the effect of competition for resources within trees at the site level. Our results suggest that detection of the effects of a warming climate on bark beetle populations at small spatial scales may be difficult without accounting for negative density dependence due to competition for resources. © 2018 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The effect of warmer winters on the demography of an outbreak insect is hidden by intraspecific competition

DOE PAGES

Goodsman, Devin W.; Grosklos, Guenchik; Aukema, Brian H.; ...

2018-05-29

Warmer climates are predicted to increase bark beetle outbreak frequency, severity, and range. Even in favorable climates, however, outbreaks can decelerate due to resource limitation, which necessitates the inclusion of competition for limited resources in analyses of climatic effects on populations. We evaluated several hypotheses of how climate impacts mountain pine beetle reproduction using an extensive 9-year dataset, in which nearly 10,000 trees were sampled across a region of approximately 90,000 km 2, that was recently invaded by the mountain pine beetle in Alberta, Canada. Our analysis supports the hypothesis of a positive effect of warmer winter temperatures on mountainmore » pine beetle overwinter survival and provides evidence that the increasing trend in minimum winter temperatures over time in North America is an important driver of increased mountain pine beetle reproduction across the region. Although we demonstrate a consistent effect of warmer minimum winter temperatures on mountain pine beetle reproductive rates that is evident at the landscape and regional scales, this effect is overwhelmed by the effect of competition for resources within trees at the site level. Our results suggest that detection of the effects of a warming climate on bark beetle populations at small spatial scales may be difficult without accounting for negative density dependence due to competition for resources.« less

Geographically variable response of Dendroctonus ponderosae to winter warming in the western United States

Treesearch

Aaron S. Weed; Barbara J. Bentz; Matthew P. Ayres; Thomas P. Holmes

2015-01-01

Milder winters have contributed to recent outbreaks of Dendroctonus ponderosae in Canada, but have not been evaluated as a factor permitting concurrent outbreaks across its large range (ca.1500 9 1500 km) in the western United States (US). We examined the trend in minimum air temperatures in D. ponderosae habitats across the western US and assessed whether warming...

Tracking of climatic niche boundaries under recent climate change.

PubMed

La Sorte, Frank A; Jetz, Walter

2012-07-01

1. Global climate has changed significantly during the past 30 years and especially in northern temperate regions which have experienced poleward shifts in temperature regimes. While there is evidence that some species have responded by moving their distributions to higher latitudes, the efficiency of this response in tracking species' climatic niche boundaries over time has yet to be addressed. 2. Here, we provide a continental assessment of the temporal structure of species responses to recent spatial shifts in climatic conditions. We examined geographic associations with minimum winter temperature for 59 species of winter avifauna at 476 Christmas Bird Count circles in North America from 1975 to 2009 under three sampling schemes that account for spatial and temporal sampling effects. 3. Minimum winter temperature associated with species occurrences showed an overall increase with a weakening trend after 1998. Species displayed highly variable responses that, on average and across sampling schemes, contained a strong lag effect that weakened in strength over time. In general, the conservation of minimum winter temperature was relevant when all species were considered together but only after an initial lag period (c. 35 years) was overcome. The delayed niche tracking observed at the combined species level was likely supported by the post1998 lull in the warming trend. 4. There are limited geographic and ecological explanations for the observed variability, suggesting that the efficiency of species' responses under climate change is likely to be highly idiosyncratic and difficult to predict. This outcome is likely to be even more pronounced and time lags more persistent for less vagile taxa, particularly during the periods of consistent or accelerating warming. Current modelling efforts and conservation strategies need to better appreciate the variation, strength and duration of lag effects and their association with climatic variability. Conservation strategies in particular will benefit through identifying and maintaining dispersal corridors that accommodate diverging dispersal strategies and timetables. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.

Windowpane flounder (Scophthalmus aquosus) and winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus) responses to cold temperature extremes in a Northwest Atlantic estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilber, Dara H.; Clarke, Douglas G.; Alcoba, Catherine M.; Gallo, Jenine

2016-01-01

The effect of climate variability on flatfish includes not only the effects of warming on sensitive life history stages, but also impacts from more frequent or unseasonal extreme cold temperatures. Cold weather events can affect the overwintering capabilities of flatfish near their low temperature range limits. We examined the responses of two flatfish species, the thin-bodied windowpane (Scophthalmus aquosus) and cold-tolerant winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus), to variable winter temperatures in a Northwest Atlantic estuary using abundance and size data collected during a monitoring study, the Aquatic Biological Survey, conducted from 2002 to 2010. Winter and spring abundances of small (50 to 120 mm total length) juvenile windowpane were positively correlated with adult densities (spawning stock) and fall temperatures (thermal conditions experienced during post-settlement development for the fall-spawned cohort) of the previous year. Windowpane abundances in the estuary were significantly reduced and the smallest size class was nearly absent after several consecutive years with cold (minimum temperatures < 1 °C) winters. Interannual variation in winter flounder abundances was unrelated to the severity of winter temperatures. A Paulik diagram illustrates strong positive correlations between annual abundances of sequential winter flounder life history stages (egg, larval, Age-1 juvenile, and adult male) within the estuary, reflecting residency within the estuary through their first year of life. Temperature variables representing conditions during winter flounder larval and post-settlement development were not significant factors in multiple regression models exploring factors that affect juvenile abundances. Likewise, densities of predators known to consume winter flounder eggs and/or post-settlement juveniles were not significantly related to interannual variation in winter flounder juvenile abundances. Colder estuarine temperatures through the first year of life were associated with smaller Age-1 winter flounder body size. For example, Age-1 winter flounder developing under conditions that differed by 1.9 °C in mean daily water temperature, averaged 98.7 mm total length (TL) and 123.1 mm TL, for the relatively cold vs. moderate years, respectively. More frequent cold temperature extremes associated with climate variability may negatively impact the overwintering capabilities of some flatfish near their cold temperature range limits, whereas cold-tolerant species may experience reduced growth, which imparts the ecological challenges associated with smaller body size.

Geo-spatial analysis of temporal trends of temperature and its extremes over India using daily gridded (1°×1°) temperature data of 1969-2005

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakraborty, Abhishek; Seshasai, M. V. R.; Rao, S. V. C. Kameswara; Dadhwal, V. K.

2017-10-01

Daily gridded (1°×1°) temperature data (1969-2005) were used to detect spatial patterns of temporal trends of maximum and minimum temperature (monthly and seasonal), growing degree days (GDDs) over the crop-growing season ( kharif, rabi, and zaid) and annual frequencies of temperature extremes over India. The direction and magnitude of trends, at each grid level, were estimated using the Mann-Kendall statistics ( α = 0.05) and further assessed at the homogeneous temperature regions using a field significance test ( α=0.05). General warming trends were observed over India with considerable variations in direction and magnitude over space and time. The spatial extent and the magnitude of the increasing trends of minimum temperature (0.02-0.04 °C year-1) were found to be higher than that of maximum temperature (0.01-0.02 °C year-1) during winter and pre-monsoon seasons. Significant negative trends of minimum temperature were found over eastern India during the monsoon months. Such trends were also observed for the maximum temperature over northern and eastern parts, particularly in the winter month of January. The general warming patterns also changed the thermal environment of the crop-growing season causing significant increase in GDDs during kharif and rabi seasons across India. The warming climate has also caused significant increase in occurrences of hot extremes such as hot days and hot nights, and significant decrease in cold extremes such as cold days and cold nights.

Climate and climate change and infectious disease risk in Thailand: A spatial study of dengue hemorrhagic fever using GIS and remotely-sensed imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuzera, Kristopher

The scientific community has widely accepted that climate plays a key role in the sustainability and transmission of many infectious diseases. Global climate change can potentially trigger the spread of disease into new regions and increase the intensity of disease in regions where it is endemic. This study explores the association between monthly conditions of climate change to changes in disease risk, emphasizing the potential spread of dengue fever due to climate change in Thailand. This study also develops techniques new to GIS and remote sensing that generate surfaces of daily minimum temperature toward identifying areas at greater transmission risk. Dengue fever expansion due to global warming is a serious concern for Thailand where warming temperatures may increase the size of the habitat of the disease-spreading vector, Aedes aegypti, particularly during cooler months when transmission is limited by environmental conditions. In this study, first, the association between past dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) and climate in Thailand is determined. Second, evidence of recent climate change is related to changes in DHF rates. Third, daily minimum temperature is derived from remote sensing toward identifying the spatial and temporal limitations of potential transmission risk. The results indicate that minimum temperature has recently experienced a rapid increase, particularly in the winter months when transmission is low. This is associated with a recent rise in winter DHF cases. As increasing minimum temperatures in these regions are anticipated to continue, we can expect dengue transmission rates to also increase throughout the year.

Analysis of temperature trends in Northern Serbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tosic, Ivana; Gavrilov, Milivoj; Unkašević, Miroslava; Marković, Slobodan; Petrović, Predrag

2017-04-01

An analysis of air temperature trends in Northern Serbia for the annual and seasonal time series is performed for two periods: 1949-2013 and 1979-2013. Three data sets of surface air temperatures: monthly mean temperatures, monthly maximum temperatures, and monthly minimum temperatures are analyzed at 9 stations that have altitudes varying between 75 m and 102 m. Monthly mean temperatures are obtained as the average of the daily mean temperatures, while monthly maximum (minimum) temperatures are the maximum (minimum) values of daily temperatures in corresponding month. Positive trends were found in 29 out of 30 time series, and the negative trend was found only in winter during the period 1979-2013. Applying the Mann-Kendall test, significant positive trends were found in 15 series; 7 in the period 1949-2013 and 8 in the period 1979-2013; and no significant trend was found in 15 series. Significant positive trends are dominated during the year, spring, and summer, where it was found in 14 out of 18 cases. Significant positive trends were found 7, 5, and 3 times in mean, maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively. It was found that the positive temperature trends are dominant in Northern Serbia.

Exospheric temperature and composition from satellite beacon measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Titheridge, J. E.

1974-01-01

Routine measurements of the slab thickness of the ionosphere, from 1965 to 1971, are used to infer the changes in neutral temperature and ion composition at a mean latitude of 40 S. Values of neutral temperature at solar maximum are 5 to 10% above Northern Hemisphere backscatter results. The diurnal and seasonal changes agree closely with satellite drag and backscatter measurements, except that the maximum temperature occurs after sunset in winter. Winter night-time values of the O(+)/H(+) transition height were 500 km in 1965-1966, 800 km in 1968-1969, and 700 km in 1971. Changes in the transition height lag about six months behind the changes in solar flux. Diurnal variations have a minimum just before sunrise and a maximum 1 to 3 hr after noon. On winter nights the transition height descends to the level set by chemical equilibrium. On summer nights the transition height is always above this level, giving a continual production of H(+) which serves as an additional source for maintaining the night-time ionosphere in the winter hemisphere.

Temperature Trends in the White Mountains of New Hampshire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, G.; Kelsey, E. P.; Raudzens Bailey, A.

2014-12-01

Located at the summit of Mount Washington (1917 m asl; ~800 hPa), the highest peak in the northeastern United States, the Mount Washington Observatory has meticulously recorded hourly temperature, humidity, cloud-cover, and other atmospheric variables for over 80 years using the same standard procedures to ensure high-quality, homogeneous data. Nearby Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (253 m asl; ~980 hPa), a Long-Term Ecological Research site, has recorded atmospheric and environmental data since 1956. Together, these two sites provide a unique opportunity to evaluate elevation-dependent climate changes. Using Sen's slope and the Mann Kendall non-parameteric test we examine annual and seasonal trends in minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures. Both Mount Washington and Hubbard Brook exhibit 56-yr warming trends for most seasons, however, the magnitudes and statistical significances are variable, suggesting the processes controlling these trends likely differ with elevation. Since 1957, for instance, spring maximum temperatures at Hubbard Brook have warmed 0.32 °C dec-1 and winter minimums have increased 0.54 °C dec-1, both well within the range reported for six neighboring low elevation stations from 1970-2012 (Wake et al, 2014a,b). In comparison, Mount Washington summit seasonal minimum temperature trends are typically weaker, with changes in winter minimums (the largest of the seasons) reaching only 0.33 °C dec-1. In this presentation, we highlight differences between these two long-term records and discuss possible role of moist processes and boundary layer/free troposphere exposure in causing their divergence. Authors are planning to study the effects of humidity and cloud-cover on summit temperatures and to investigate how changes in the frequency with which the summit is exposed to boundary layer and free tropospheric air masses influences these relationships.

Climate change in our backyards: the reshuffling of North America's winter bird communities.

PubMed

Princé, Karine; Zuckerberg, Benjamin

2015-02-01

Much of the recent changes in North American climate have occurred during the winter months, and as result, overwintering birds represent important sentinels of anthropogenic climate change. While there is mounting evidence that bird populations are responding to a warming climate (e.g., poleward shifts) questions remain as to whether these species-specific responses are resulting in community-wide changes. Here, we test the hypothesis that a changing winter climate should favor the formation of winter bird communities dominated by warm-adapted species. To do this, we quantified changes in community composition using a functional index--the Community Temperature Index (CTI)--which measures the balance between low- and high-temperature dwelling species in a community. Using data from Project FeederWatch, an international citizen science program, we quantified spatiotemporal changes in winter bird communities (n = 38 bird species) across eastern North America and tested the influence of changes in winter minimum temperature over a 22-year period. We implemented a jackknife analysis to identify those species most influential in driving changes at the community level and the population dynamics (e.g., extinction or colonization) responsible for these community changes. Since 1990, we found that the winter bird community structure has changed with communities increasingly composed of warm-adapted species. This reshuffling of winter bird communities was strongest in southerly latitudes and driven primarily by local increases in abundance and regional patterns of colonization by southerly birds. CTI tracked patterns of changing winter temperature at different temporal scales ranging from 1 to 35 years. We conclude that a shifting winter climate has provided an opportunity for smaller, southerly distributed species to colonize new regions and promote the formation of unique winter bird assemblages throughout eastern North America. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Uncertainties in observations and climate projections for the North East India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soraisam, Bidyabati; Karumuri, Ashok; D. S., Pai

2018-01-01

The Northeast-India has undergone many changes in climatic-vegetation related issues in the last few decades due to increased human activities. However, lack of observations makes it difficult to ascertain the climate change. The study involves the mean, seasonal cycle, trend and extreme-month analysis for summer-monsoon and winter seasons of observed climate data from Indian Meteorological Department (1° × 1°) and Aphrodite & CRU-reanalysis (both 0.5° × 0.5°), and five regional-climate-model simulations (LMDZ, MPI, GFDL, CNRM and ACCESS) data from AR5/CORDEX-South-Asia (0.5° × 0.5°). Long-term (1970-2005) observed, minimum and maximum monthly temperature and precipitation, and the corresponding CORDEX-South-Asia data for historical (1970-2005) and future-projections of RCP4.5 (2011-2060) have been analyzed for long-term trends. A large spread is found across the models in spatial distributions of various mean maximum/minimum climate statistics, though models capture a similar trend in the corresponding area-averaged seasonal cycles qualitatively. Our observational analysis broadly suggests that there is no significant trend in rainfall. Significant trends are observed in the area-averaged minimum temperature during winter. All the CORDEX-South-Asia simulations for the future project either a decreasing insignificant trend in seasonal precipitation, but increasing trend for both seasonal maximum and minimum temperature over the northeast India. The frequency of extreme monthly maximum and minimum temperature are projected to increase. It is not clear from future projections how the extreme rainfall months during JJAS may change. The results show the uncertainty exists in the CORDEX-South-Asia model projections over the region in spite of the relatively high resolution.

Tendencies of extreme values on rainfall and temperature and its relationship with teleconnection patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taboada, J. J.; Cabrejo, A.; Guarin, D.; Ramos, A. M.

2009-04-01

It is now very well established that yearly averaged temperatures are increasing due to anthropogenic climate change. In the area of Galicia (NW Spain) this trend has also been determined. Rainfall does not show a clear tendency in its yearly accumulated values. The aim of this work is to study different extreme indices of rainfall and temperatures analysing variability and possible trends associated to climate change. Station data for the study was provided by the CLIMA database of the regional government of Galicia (NW Spain). The definition of the extreme indices was taken from the joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team (ET) on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) This group has defined a set of standard extreme values to simplify intercomparison of data from different regions of the world. For the temperatures in the period 1960-2006, results show a significant increase of the number of days with maximum temperatures above the 90th percentile. Furthermore, a significant decrease of the days with maximum temperatures below the 10th percentile has been found. The tendencies of minimum temperatures are reverse: fewer nights with minimum temperatures below 10th percentile, and more with minimum temperatures above 90th percentile. Those tendencies can be observed all over the year, but are more pronounced in summer. This trend is expected to continue in the next decades because of anthropogenic climate change. We have also calculated the relationship between the above mentioned extreme values and different teleconnection patterns appearing in the North Atlantic area. Results show that local tendencies are associated with trends of EA (Eastern Atlantic) and SCA (Scandinavian) patterns. NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) has also some relationship with these tendencies, but only related with cold days and nights in winter. Rainfall index do not show any clear tendency on the annual scale. Nevertheless, the count of days when precipitation is greater than 20mm (R20mm) and the total precipitation when rainfall is greater than 95th percentile (R95pTOT) diminishes in winter and spring, but increases in autumn. This trend is related with NAO in winter and spring and with SCA in autumn.

Innovative trend analysis of annual and seasonal air temperature and rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin, China during 1960-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Lifang; Wang, Lunche; Lai, Zhongping; Tian, Qing; Liu, Wen; Li, Jun

2017-11-01

The variation characteristics of air temperature and precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB), China during 1960-2015 were analysed using a linear regression (LR) analysis, a Mann-Kendall (MK) test with Sen's slope estimator and Sen's innovative trend analysis (ITA). The results showed that the annual maximum, minimum and mean temperature significantly increased at the rate of 0.15°C/10yr, 0.23°C/10yr and 0.19°C/10yr, respectively, over the whole study area during 1960-2015. The warming magnitudes for the above variables during 1980-2015 were much higher than those during 1960-2015:0.38°C/10yr, 0.35°C/10yr and 0.36°C/10yr, respectively. The seasonal maximum, minimum and mean temperature significantly increased in the spring, autumn and winter seasons during 1960-2015. Although the summer temperatures also increased at some extent, only the minimum temperature showed a significant increasing trend. Meanwhile, the highest rate of increase of seasonal mean temperature occurred in winter (0.24°C/10yr) during 1960-2015 and spring (0.50°C/10yr) during 1980-2015, which indicated that the significant warming trend for the whole YRB could be attributed to the remarkable temperature increases in winter and spring months. However, both the annual and seasonal warming magnitudes showed large regional differences, and a higher warming rate was detected in the eastern YRB and the western source region of the Yangtze River on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). Additionally, annual precipitation increased by approximately 12.02 mm/10yr during 1960-2015 but decreased at the rate of 19.63 mm/10yr during 1980-2015. There were decreasing trends for precipitation in all four seasons since 1980 in the YRB, and a significant increasing trend was only detected in summer since 1960 (12.37 mm/10yr). Overall, a warming-wetting trend was detected in the south-eastern and north-western YRB, while there was a warming-drying trend in middle regions.

Estimation of minimum ventilation requirement of dairy cattle barns for different outdoor temperature and its affects on indoor temperature: Bursa case.

PubMed

Yaslioglu, Erkan; Simsek, Ercan; Kilic, Ilker

2007-04-15

In the study, 10 different dairy cattle barns with natural ventilation system were investigated in terms of structural aspects. VENTGRAPH software package was used to estimate minimum ventilation requirements for three different outdoor design temperatures (-3, 0 and 1.7 degrees C). Variation in indoor temperatures was also determined according to the above-mentioned conditions. In the investigated dairy cattle barns, on condition that minimum ventilation requirement to be achieved for -3, 0 and 1.7 degrees C outdoor design temperature and 70, 80% Indoor Relative Humidity (IRH), estimated indoor temperature were ranged from 2.2 to 12.2 degrees C for 70% IRH, 4.3 to 15.0 degrees C for 80% IRH. Barn type, outdoor design temperature and indoor relative humidity significantly (p < 0.01) affect the indoor temperature. The highest ventilation requirement was calculated for straw yard (13879 m3 h(-1)) while the lowest was estimated for tie-stall (6169.20 m3 h(-1)). Estimated minimum ventilation requirements per animal were significantly (p < 0.01) different according to the barn types. Effect of outdoor esign temperatures on minimum ventilation requirements and minimum ventilation requirements per animal was found to be significant (p < 0.05, p < 0.01). Estimated indoor temperatures were in thermoneutral zone (-2 to 20 degrees C). Therefore, one can be said that use of naturally ventilated cold dairy barns in the region will not lead to problems associated with animal comfort in winter.

Using Species Distribution Model to Estimate the Wintering Population Size of the Endangered Scaly-Sided Merganser in China

PubMed Central

Zeng, Qing; Zhang, Yamian; Sun, Gongqi; Duo, Hairui; Wen, Li; Lei, Guangchun

2015-01-01

Scaly-sided Merganser is a globally endangered species restricted to eastern Asia. Estimating its population is difficult and considerable gap exists between populations at its breeding grounds and wintering sites. In this study, we built a species distribution model (SDM) using Maxent with presence-only data to predict the potential wintering habitat for Scaly-sided Merganser in China. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) method suggests high predictive power of the model (training and testing AUC were 0.97 and 0.96 respectively). The most significant environmental variables included annual mean temperature, mean temperature of coldest quarter, minimum temperature of coldest month and precipitation of driest quarter. Suitable conditions for Scaly-sided Merganser are predicted in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, especially in Jiangxi, Hunan and Hubei Provinces. The predicted suitable habitat embraces 6,984 km of river. Based on survey results from three consecutive winters (2010–2012) and previous studies, we estimated that the entire wintering population of Scaly-sided Merganser in China to be 3,561 ± 478 individuals, which is consistent with estimate in its breeding ground. PMID:25646969

How mothers keep their babies warm.

PubMed Central

Bacon, C J; Bell, S A; Clulow, E E; Beattie, A B

1991-01-01

Details of room temperature, clothing, and bedding used by night and by day and in winter and in summer were recorded for 649 babies aged 8 to 26 weeks. Room temperature at night was significantly related to outside temperature and duration of heating. Total insulation was significantly related to outside temperature and to minimum room temperature, but there was wide variation in insulation at the same room temperature. High levels of insulation for a given room temperature were found particularly at night and in winter, and were associated with the use of thick or doubled duvets and with swaddling. At least half the babies threw off some or all of their bedding at night, and at least a quarter sweated. Younger mothers and mothers in the lower social groups put more bedclothes over their babies, and the latter also kept their rooms warmer. Many mothers kept their babies warmer during infections. PMID:2039255

High-frequency daily temperature variability in China and its relationship to large-scale circulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, Fu-Ting; Fu, Congbin; Qian, Yun

Two measures of intra-seasonal variability, indicated respectively by standard deviations (SD) and day-to-day (DTD) fluctuations denoted by absolute differences between adjacent 2-day periods, as well as their relationships with large-scale circulation patterns were investigated in China during 1962–2008 on the basis of homogenized daily temperature records from 549 local stations and reanalysis data. Our results show that both the SD and DTD of daily minimum temperatures (Tmin) in summer as well as the minimum and maximum temperatures in winter have been decreasing, while the daily maximum temperature (Tmax) variability in summer is fluctuating more, especially over southern China. In summer,more » an attribution analysis indicates that the intensity of the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) and high-level East Asian Subtropical Jet stream (EASJ) are positively correlated with both SD and DTD, but the correlation coefficients are generally greater with the SD than with the DTD of the daily maximum temperature, Tmax. In contrast, the location of the EASJ shows the opposite correlation pattern, with intensity regarding the correlation with both SD and DTD. In winter, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is negatively correlated with both the SD and DTD of the daily minimum temperature, but its intra-seasonal variability exhibits good agreement with the SD of the Tmin. The Siberian High acts differently with respect to the SD and DTD of the Tmin, demonstrating a regionally consistent positive correlation with the SD. Overall, the large-scale circulation can well explain the intra-seasonal SD, but DTD fluctuations may be more local and impacted by local conditions, such as changes in the temperature itself, the land surface, and so on.« less

Intraspecific variation in Pinus pinaster PSII photochemical efficiency in response to winter stress and freezing temperatures.

PubMed

Corcuera, Leyre; Gil-Pelegrin, Eustaquio; Notivol, Eduardo

2011-01-01

As part of a program to select maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.) genotypes for resistance to low winter temperatures, we examined variation in photosystem II activity by chlorophyll fluorescence. Populations and families within populations from contrasting climates were tested during two consecutive winters through two progeny trials, one located at a continental and xeric site and one at a mesic site with Atlantic influence. We also obtained the LT₅₀, or the temperature that causes 50% damage, by controlled freezing and the subsequent analysis of chlorophyll fluorescence in needles and stems that were collected from populations at the continental trial site.P. pinaster showed sensitivity to winter stress at the continental site, during the colder winter. The combination of low temperatures, high solar irradiation and low precipitation caused sustained decreases in maximal photochemical efficiency (F(v)/F(m)), quantum yield of non-cyclic electron transport (Φ(PSII)) and photochemical quenching (qP). The variation in photochemical parameters was larger among families than among populations, and population differences appeared only under the harshest conditions at the continental site. As expected, the environmental effects (winter and site) on the photochemical parameters were much larger than the genotypic effects (population or family). LT₅₀ was closely related to the minimum winter temperatures of the population's range. The dark-adapted F(v)/F(m) ratio discriminated clearly between interior and coastal populations.In conclusion, variations in F(v)/F(m), Φ(PSII), qP and non-photochemical quenching (NPQ) in response to winter stress were primarily due to the differences between the winter conditions and the sites and secondarily due to the differences among families and their interactions with the environment. Populations from continental climates showed higher frost tolerance (LT₅₀) than coastal populations that typically experience mild winters. Therefore, LT₅₀, as estimated by F(v)/F(m), is a reliable indicator of frost tolerance among P. pinaster populations.

Intraspecific Variation in Pinus Pinaster PSII Photochemical Efficiency in Response to Winter Stress and Freezing Temperatures

PubMed Central

Corcuera, Leyre; Gil-Pelegrin, Eustaquio; Notivol, Eduardo

2011-01-01

As part of a program to select maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.) genotypes for resistance to low winter temperatures, we examined variation in photosystem II activity by chlorophyll fluorescence. Populations and families within populations from contrasting climates were tested during two consecutive winters through two progeny trials, one located at a continental and xeric site and one at a mesic site with Atlantic influence. We also obtained the LT50, or the temperature that causes 50% damage, by controlled freezing and the subsequent analysis of chlorophyll fluorescence in needles and stems that were collected from populations at the continental trial site. P. pinaster showed sensitivity to winter stress at the continental site, during the colder winter. The combination of low temperatures, high solar irradiation and low precipitation caused sustained decreases in maximal photochemical efficiency (Fv/Fm), quantum yield of non-cyclic electron transport (ΦPSII) and photochemical quenching (qP). The variation in photochemical parameters was larger among families than among populations, and population differences appeared only under the harshest conditions at the continental site. As expected, the environmental effects (winter and site) on the photochemical parameters were much larger than the genotypic effects (population or family). LT50 was closely related to the minimum winter temperatures of the population's range. The dark-adapted Fv/Fm ratio discriminated clearly between interior and coastal populations. In conclusion, variations in Fv/Fm, ΦPSII, qP and non-photochemical quenching (NPQ) in response to winter stress were primarily due to the differences between the winter conditions and the sites and secondarily due to the differences among families and their interactions with the environment. Populations from continental climates showed higher frost tolerance (LT50) than coastal populations that typically experience mild winters. Therefore, LT50, as estimated by Fv/Fm, is a reliable indicator of frost tolerance among P. pinaster populations. PMID:22220195

Cryoprotection in dampwood termites (Termopsidae, Isoptera).

PubMed

Lacey, Michael J; Lenz, Michael; Evans, Theodore A

2010-01-01

In contrast to the majority of the Order, the dampwood termites of the family Termopsidae found in colder regions can experience frost and snow, either in cool temperate areas at high latitudes (45 degrees ), or alpine areas at high elevations (>1000m). This suggests that dampwood termites are adapted to cold climates. We investigated this hypothesis in two dampwood termites, Porotermes adamsoni Froggatt and Stolotermes victoriensis Hill. We measured nest temperatures and atmospheric temperatures of their alpine habitat during winter, and measured survival and recovery at subzero temperatures. We also determined the minimum temperature at which these species remain active and the LT50 values. We used a novel gas chromatographic strategy to examine eight metabolites from individuals of both species collected in winter and summer to identify possible cryoprotectants. Both P. adamsoni and S. victoriensis had significantly higher levels of trehalose, a known cryoprotectant, in winter than in summer; in addition S. victoriensis also had higher levels of unsaturated fatty acid ligands in winter than in summer, consistent with patterns observed for cold adaptation in other organisms. These results are the first to reveal that dampwood termites are adapted to cold climates and use trehalose and unsaturated lipids as cryoprotectants.

Climate and respiratory disease in Auckland, New Zealand.

PubMed

Gosai, Ashmita; Salinger, James; Dirks, Kim

2009-12-01

Increases in the incidence of diseases are often observed during the cold winter months, particularly in cities in temperate climates. The study aim is to describe daily, monthly and seasonal trends in respiratory hospital admissions with climate in Auckland, New Zealand. Daily hospital admissions for total respiratory infections or inflammations (RII), total bronchitis and asthma (BA), and total whooping cough and acute bronchitis (TWCAB) for various age groups and ethnicities were obtained for the Auckland Region and compared with climate parameters on daily, monthly and seasonal time scales. Seasonal and monthly relationships with minimum temperature were very strong (p<0.001) for RII over all age groups, for BA in the older age groups (14-64, 65+) and for TWCAB in the <1 year old age group. European, NZ Māori and Pacific Islanders all showed increases in admissions as temperatures decreased. Pacific Islanders were particularly susceptible to RII. There was a lag in admissions of three to seven days after a temperature event. Results show that increases in respiratory admissions are strongly linked to minimum temperatures during winter, typical of cities with temperate climates and poorly-insulated houses. There are implications for hospital bed and staffing planning in Auckland hospitals.

Climatic significance of the ostracode fauna from the Pliocene Kap Kobenhavn Formation, north Greenland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brouwers, E.M.; Jorgensen, N.O.; Cronin, T. M.

1991-01-01

The Kap Kobenhavn Formation crops out in Greenland at 80??N latitude and marks the most northerly onshore Pliocene locality known. The sands and silts that comprise the formation were deposited in marginal marine and shallow marine environments. An abundant and diverse vertebrate and invertebrate fauna and plant megafossil flora provide age and paleoclimatic constraints. The age estimated for the Kap Kobenhavn ranges from 2.0 to 3.0 million years old. Winter and summer bottom water paleotemperatures were estimated on the basis of the ostracode assemblages. The marine ostracode fauna in units B1 and B2 indicate a subfrigid to frigid marine climate, with estimated minimum sea bottom temperatures (SBT) of -2??C and estimated maximum SBT of 6-8??C. Sediments assigned to unit B2 at locality 72 contain a higher proportion of warm water genera, and the maximum SBT is estimated at 9-10??C. The marginal marine fauna in the uppermost unit B3 (locality 68) indicates a cold temperate to subfrigid marine climate, with an estimated minimum SBT of -2??C and an estimated maximum SBT ranging as high as 12-14??C. These temperatures indicated that, on the average, the Kap Kobenhavn winters in the late Pliocene were similar to or perhaps 1-2??C warmer than winters today and that summer temperatures were 7-8??C warmer than today. -from Authors

Trends in extreme daily temperatures and humidex index in the United Arab Emirates over 1948-2014.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, H. W.; Ouarda, T.

2015-12-01

This study deals with the analysis of the characteristics of extreme temperature events in the Middle East, using NCEP reanalysis gridded data, for the summer (May-October) and winter (November-April) seasons. Trends in the occurrences of three types of heat spells during 1948-2014 are studied by both Linear Regression (LR) and Mann-Kendall (MK) test. Changes in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) are also investigated. To better understand the effects of heat spells on public health, the Humidex, a combination index of ambient temperature and relative humidity, is also used. Using percentile threshold, temperature (Humidex) Type-A and Type-B heat spells are defined respectively by daily maximum and minimum temperature (Humidex). Type-C heat spells are defined as the joint occurrence of Type-A and Type-B heat spells at the same time. In the Middle East, it is found that no coherent trend in temperature Type-A heat spells is observed. However, the occurrences of temperature Type-B and C heat spells have consistently increased since 1948. For Humidex heat spells, coherently increased activities of all three types of heat spells are observed in the area. During the summer, the magnitude of the positive trends in Humidex heat spells are generally stronger than temperature heat spells. More than half of the locations in the area show significantly negative DTR trends in the summer, but the trends vary according to the region in the winter. Annual mean temperature has increased an average by 0.5°C, but it is mainly associated with the daily minimum temperature which has warmed up by 0.84°C.Daily maximum temperature showed no significant trends. The warming is hence stronger in minimum temperatures than in maximum temperatures resulting in a decrease in DTR by 0.16 °C per decade. This study indicates hence that the UAE has not become hotter, but it has become less cold during 1948 to 2014.

Analysis of rainfall and temperature time series to detect long-term climatic trends and variability over semi-arid Botswana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byakatonda, Jimmy; Parida, B. P.; Kenabatho, Piet K.; Moalafhi, D. B.

2018-03-01

Arid and semi-arid environments have been identified with locations prone to impacts of climate variability and change. Investigating long-term trends is one way of tracing climate change impacts. This study investigates variability through annual and seasonal meteorological time series. Possible inhomogeneities and years of intervention are analysed using four absolute homogeneity tests. Trends in the climatic variables were determined using Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope estimator statistics. Association of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with local climate is also investigated through multivariate analysis. Results from the study show that rainfall time series are fully homogeneous with 78.6 and 50% of the stations for maximum and minimum temperature, respectively, showing homogeneity. Trends also indicate a general decrease of 5.8, 7.4 and 18.1% in annual, summer and winter rainfall, respectively. Warming trends are observed in annual and winter temperature at 0.3 and 1.5% for maximum temperature and 1.7 and 6.5% for minimum temperature, respectively. Rainfall reported a positive correlation with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and at the same time negative association with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). Strong relationships between SSTs and maximum temperature are observed during the El Niño and La Niña years. These study findings could facilitate planning and management of agricultural and water resources in Botswana.

Sustainability of winter tourism in a changing climate over Kashmir Himalaya.

PubMed

Dar, Reyaz Ahmad; Rashid, Irfan; Romshoo, Shakil Ahmad; Marazi, Asif

2014-04-01

Mountain areas are sensitive to climate change. Implications of climate change can be seen in less snow, receding glaciers, increasing temperatures, and decreasing precipitation. Climate change is also a severe threat to snow-related winter sports such as skiing, snowboarding, and cross-country skiing. The change in climate will put further pressure on the sensitive environment of high mountains. Therefore, in this study, an attempt has been made to know the impact of climate change on the snow precipitation, water resources, and winter tourism in the two famous tourist resorts of the Kashmir Valley. Our findings show that winters are getting prolonged with little snow falls on account of climate change. The average minimum and maximum temperatures are showing statistically significant increasing trends for winter months. The precipitation is showing decreasing trends in both the regions. A considerable area in these regions remains under the snow and glacier cover throughout the year especially during the winter and spring seasons. However, time series analysis of LandSat MODIS images using Normalized Difference Snow Index shows a decreasing trend in snow cover in both the regions from past few years. Similarly, the stream discharge, comprising predominantly of snow- and glacier-melt, is showing a statistically significant declining trend despite the melting of these glaciers. The predicted futuristic trends of temperature from Predicting Regional Climates for Impact Studies regional climate model are showing an increase which may enhance snow-melting in the near future posing a serious threat to the sustainability of winter tourism in the region. Hence, it becomes essential to monitor the changes in temperature and snow cover depletion in these basins in order to evaluate their effect on the winter tourism and water resources in the region.

Seasonal variation in body mass, body temperature and thermogenesis in the Hwamei, Garrulax canorus.

PubMed

Wu, Mei-Xiu; Zhou, Li-Meng; Zhao, Li-Dan; Zhao, Zhi-Jun; Zheng, Wei-Hong; Liu, Jin-Song

2015-01-01

The basal thermogenesis of birds is beginning to be viewed as a highly flexible physiological trait influenced by environmental fluctuations, particularly changes in ambient temperature (Ta). Many birds living in regions with seasonal fluctuations in Ta typically respond to cold by increasing their insulation and adjusting their metabolic rate. To understand these metabolic adaptations, body temperature (Tb), metabolic rate (MR), thermal neutral zone (TNZ) and thermal conductance were measured within a range of temperatures from 5 to 40°C in free-living Hwamei, Garrulax canorus, in both winter and summer. Body mass was 61.2±0.3g in winter and 55.5±1.0g in summer, and mean Tb was 41.6±0.1°C in winter and 42.3±0.1°C in summer. TNZ was between 28.3 and 35.1°C in winter and between 28.7 and 33.2°C in summer. The mean basal metabolic rate (BMR) within TNZ was 203.32±11.81ml O2 h(-1) in winter and 168.99±6.45ml O2 h(-1) in summer. Minimum thermal conductance was 3.73±0.09joulesg(-1)h(-1)°C(-1) in winter and 3.26±0.06joulesg(-1)h(-1)°C(-1) in summer. Birds caught in winter had higher body mass, MR, and more variable TNZ than those in summer. The increased winter BMR indicates improved ability to cope with cold and maintenance of a high Tb. These results show that the Hwamei's metabolism is not constant, but exhibits pronounced seasonal phenotypic flexibility associated with maintenance of a high Tb. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

How changes of climate extremes affect summer and winter crop yields and water productivity in the southeast USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, D.; Cammarano, D.

2017-12-01

Modeling changes of crop production at regional scale is important to make adaptation measures for sustainably food supply under global change. In this study, we explore how changing climate extremes in the 20th and 21st century affect maize (summer crop) and wheat (winter crop) yields in an agriculturally important region: the southeast United States. We analyze historical (1950-1999) and projected (2006-2055) precipitation and temperature extremes by calculating the changes of 18 climate extreme indices using the statistically downscaled CMIP5 data from 10 general circulation models (GCMs). To evaluate how these climate extremes affect maize and wheat yields, historical baseline and projected maize and wheat yields under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are simulated using the DSSAT-CERES maize and wheat models driven by the same downscaled GCMs data. All of the changes are examined at 110 locations over the study region. The results show that most of the precipitation extreme indices do not have notable change; mean precipitation, precipitation intensity, and maximum 1-day precipitation are generally increased; the number of rainy days is decreased. The temperature extreme indices mostly showed increased values on mean temperature, number of high temperature days, diurnal temperature range, consecutive high temperature days, maximum daily maximum temperature, and minimum daily minimum temperature; the number of low temperature days and number of consecutive low temperature days are decreased. The conditional probabilistic relationships between changes in crop yields and changes in extreme indices suggested different responses of crop yields to climate extremes during sowing to anthesis and anthesis to maturity periods. Wheat yields and crop water productivity for wheat are increased due to an increased CO2 concentration and minimum temperature; evapotranspiration, maize yields, and crop water productivity for wheat are decreased owing to the increased temperature extremes. We found the effects of precipitation changes on both yields are relatively uncertain.

Autumn-winter minimum temperature changes in the southern Sikhote-Alin mountain range of northeastern Asia since 1529 AD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ukhvatkina, Olga N.; Omelko, Alexander M.; Zhmerenetsky, Alexander A.; Petrenko, Tatyana Y.

2018-01-01

The aim of our research was to reconstruct climatic parameters (for the first time for the Sikhote-Alin mountain range) and to compare them with global climate fluctuations. As a result, we have found that one of the most important limiting factors for the study area is the minimum temperatures of the previous autumn-winter season (August-December), and this finding perfectly conforms to that in other territories. We reconstructed the previous August-December minimum temperature for 485 years, from 1529 to 2014. We found 12 cold periods (1535-1540, 1550-1555, 1643-1649, 1659-1667, 1675-1689, 1722-1735, 1791-1803, 1807-1818, 1822-1827, 1836-1852, 1868-1887, 1911-1925) and seven warm periods (1560-1585, 1600-1610, 1614-1618, 1738-1743, 1756-1759, 1776-1781, 1944-2014). These periods correlate well with reconstructed data for the Northern Hemisphere and the neighboring territories of China and Japan. Our reconstruction has 3-, 9-, 20-, and 200-year periods, which may be in line with high-frequency fluctuations in El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the short-term solar cycle, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) fluctuations, and the 200-year solar activity cycle, respectively. We suppose that the temperature of the North Pacific, expressed by the PDO may make a major contribution to regional climate variations. We also assume that the regional climatic response to solar activity becomes apparent in the temperature changes in the northern part of Pacific Ocean and corresponds to cold periods during the solar minimum. These comparisons show that our climatic reconstruction based on tree ring chronology for this area may potentially provide a proxy record for long-term, large-scale past temperature patterns for northeastern Asia. The reconstruction reflects the global traits and local variations in the climatic processes of the southern territory of the Russian Far East for more than the past 450 years.

Climate influence on Baltic cod, sprat, and herring stock-recruitment relationships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Margonski, Piotr; Hansson, Sture; Tomczak, Maciej T.; Grzebielec, Ryszard

2010-10-01

A wide range of possible recruitment drivers were tested for key exploited fish species in the Baltic Sea Regional Advisory Council (RAC) area: Eastern Baltic Cod, Central Baltic Herring, Gulf of Riga Herring, and sprat. For each of the stocks, two hypotheses were tested: (i) recruitment is significantly related to spawning stock biomass, climatic forcing, and feeding conditions and (ii) by acknowledging these drivers, management decisions can be improved. Climate impact expressed by climatic indices or changes in water temperature was included in all the final models. Recruitment of the herring stock appeared to be influenced by different factors: the spawning stock biomass, winter Baltic Sea Index prior to spawning, and potentially the November-December sea surface temperature during the winter after spawning were important to Gulf of Riga Herring, while the final models for Central Baltic Herring included spawning stock biomass and August sea surface temperature. Recruitment of sprat appeared to be influenced by July-August temperature, but was independent of the spawning biomass when SSB > 200,000 tons. Recruitment of Eastern Baltic Cod was significantly related to spawning stock biomass, the winter North Atlantic Oscillation index, and the reproductive volume in the Gotland Basin in May. All the models including extrinsic factors significantly improved prediction ability as compared to traditional models, which account for impacts of the spawning stock biomass alone. Based on the final models the minimum spawning stock biomass to derive the associated minimum recruitment under average environmental conditions was calculated for each stock. Using uncertainty analyses, the spawning stock biomass required to produce associated minimum recruitment was presented with different probabilities considering the influence of the extrinsic drivers. This tool allows for recruitment to be predicted with a required probability, that is, higher than the average 50% estimated from the models. Further, this approach considers unfavorable environmental conditions which mean that a higher spawning stock biomass is needed to maintain recruitment at a required level.

How much have California winters warmed over the last century?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, K. J.; Williams, A. P.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2017-09-01

Extraordinarily warm 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 winter temperatures in California accompanied by drought conditions contributed to low snow accumulations and stressed water resources, giving rise to the question: how much has California's climate warmed over the last century? We examine long-term trends in maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) daily temperatures in winter estimated from five gridded data sets. Resulting trends show some consistent features, such as higher trends in Tmin than Tmax; however, substantial differences exist in the trend magnitudes and spatial patterns due mostly to the nature of spatial interpolation employed in the different data sets. Averaged across California over 1920-2015, Tmax trends vary from -0.30 to 1.2°C/century, while Tmin trends range from 1.2 to 1.9°C/century. The differences in temperature strongly impact modeled changes in snow water equivalent over the last century (from -5.0 to -7.6 km3/century).

Association between weather conditions and the number of patients at the emergency room in an Argentine hospital

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rusticucci, Matilde; Bettolli, Laura M.; de los Angeles Harris, M.

2002-02-01

The aim of this paper is to study the relationships between hospital emergencies and weather conditions by analysing summer and winter cases of patients requiring attention at the emergency room of a hospital in the city of Buenos Aires, Argentina. Hospital data have been sorted into seven different diagnostic groups as follows: (1) respiratory, cardiovascular and chest-pain complaints; (2) digestive, genitourinary and abdominal complaints; (3) neurological and psychopathological disorders; (4) infections; (5) contusion and crushing, bone and muscle complaints; (6) skin and allergies and (7) miscellaneous complaints. In general, there is an increase of 16.7% in winter while, for group 2 and group 6, there are more patients in summer, 54% and 75% respectively. In summer, the total number of patients for group 6 shows a significant positive correlation with temperature and dew-point temperature, and a negative correlation with the sea-level pressure for the same day. In winter, the same relationship exists, however its correlation is not as strong. The lags observed between these three variables: maximum dew-point temperature, maximum temperature, minimum air pressure and the peaks in admissions are 1, 2 and 4 days respectively. In winter, increases in temperature and dew point and decreases in pressure are followed by a peak in admissions for group 2. In winter, there are significantly more cases in group 5 on warm, dry days and on warm, wet days in the summer.

Climate variability in Andalusia (southern Spain) during the period 1701-1850 based on documentary sources: evaluation and comparison with climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigo, F. S.; Gómez-Navarro, J. J.; Montávez Gómez, J. P.

2012-01-01

In this work, a reconstruction of climatic conditions in Andalusia (southern Iberian Peninsula) during the period 1701-1850, as well as an evaluation of its associated uncertainties, is presented. This period is interesting because it is characterized by a minimum in solar irradiance (Dalton Minimum, around 1800), as well as intense volcanic activity (for instance, the eruption of Tambora in 1815), at a time when any increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations was of minor importance. The reconstruction is based on the analysis of a wide variety of documentary data. The reconstruction methodology is based on counting the number of extreme events in the past, and inferring mean value and standard deviation using the assumption of normal distribution for the seasonal means of climate variables. This reconstruction methodology is tested within the pseudoreality of a high-resolution paleoclimate simulation performed with the regional climate model MM5 coupled to the global model ECHO-G. The results show that the reconstructions are influenced by the reference period chosen and the threshold values used to define extreme values. This creates uncertainties which are assessed within the context of climate simulation. An ensemble of reconstructions was obtained using two different reference periods (1885-1915 and 1960-1990) and two pairs of percentiles as threshold values (10-90 and 25-75). The results correspond to winter temperature, and winter, spring and autumn rainfall, and they are compared with simulations of the climate model for the considered period. The mean value of winter temperature for the period 1781-1850 was 10.6 ± 0.1 °C (11.0 °C for the reference period 1960-1990). The mean value of winter rainfall for the period 1701-1850 was 267 ± 18 mm (224 mm for 1960-1990). The mean values of spring and autumn rainfall were 164 ± 11 and 194 ± 16 mm (129 and 162 mm for 1960-1990, respectively). Comparison of the distribution functions corresponding to 1790-1820 and 1960-1990 indicates that during the Dalton Minimum the frequency of dry and warm (wet and cold) winters was lower (higher) than during the reference period: temperatures were up to 0.5 °C lower than the 1960-1990 value, and rainfall was 4% higher.

Extremely cold events and sudden air temperature drops during winter season in the Czech Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crhová, Lenka; Valeriánová, Anna; Holtanová, Eva; Müller, Miloslav; Kašpar, Marek; Stříž, Martin

2014-05-01

Today a great attention is turned to analysis of extreme weather events and frequency of their occurrence under changing climate. In most cases, these studies are focused on extremely warm events in summer season. However, extremely low values of air temperature during winter can have serious impacts on many sectors as well (e.g. power engineering, transportation, industry, agriculture, human health). Therefore, in present contribution we focus on extremely and abnormally cold air temperature events in winter season in the Czech Republic. Besides the seasonal extremes of minimum air temperature determined from station data, the standardized data with removed annual cycle are used as well. Distribution of extremely cold events over the season and the temporal evolution of frequency of occurrence during the period 1961-2010 are analyzed. Furthermore, the connection of cold events with extreme sudden temperature drops is studied. The extreme air temperature events and events of extreme sudden temperature drop are assessed using the Weather Extremity Index, which evaluates the extremity (based on return periods) and spatial extent of the meteorological extreme event of interest. The generalized extreme value distribution parameters are used to estimate return periods of daily temperature values. The work has been supported by the grant P209/11/1990 funded by the Czech Science Foundation.

Seasonal prediction skill of winter temperature over North India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, P. R.; Kar, S. C.; Mohanty, U. C.; Dey, S.; Kumari, S.; Sinha, P.

2016-04-01

The climatology, amplitude error, phase error, and mean square skill score (MSSS) of temperature predictions from five different state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCMs) have been examined for the winter (December-January-February) seasons over North India. In this region, temperature variability affects the phenological development processes of wheat crops and the grain yield. The GCM forecasts of temperature for a whole season issued in November from various organizations are compared with observed gridded temperature data obtained from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for the period 1982-2009. The MSSS indicates that the models have skills of varying degrees. Predictions of maximum and minimum temperature obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climate forecast system model (NCEP_CFSv2) are compared with station level observations from the Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment (SASE). It has been found that when the model temperatures are corrected to account the bias in the model and actual orography, the predictions are able to delineate the observed trend compared to the trend without orography correction.

Performance evaluation of NCEP climate forecast system for the prediction of winter temperatures over India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nageswararao, M. M.; Mohanty, U. C.; Kiran Prasad, S.; Osuri, Krishna K.; Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.

2016-11-01

The surface air temperature during the winter season (December-February) in India adversely affects agriculture as well as day-to-day life. Therefore, the accurate prediction of winter temperature in extended range is of utmost importance. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) has been providing climatic variables from the fully coupled global climate model, known as Climate Forecast System version 1 (CFSv1) on monthly to seasonal scale since 2004, and it has been upgraded to CFSv2 subsequently in 2011. In the present study, the performance of CFSv1 and CFSv2 in simulating the winter 2 m maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures ( T max, T min, and T mean, respectively) over India is evaluated with respect to India Meteorological Department (IMD) 1° × 1° observations. The hindcast data obtained from both versions of CFS from 1982 to 2009 (27 years) with November initial conditions (lead-1) are used. The analyses of winter ( T max, T min, and T mean) temperatures revealed that CFSv1 and CFSv2 are able to replicate the patterns of observed climatology, interannual variability, and coefficient of variation with a slight negative bias. Of the two, CFSv2 is appreciable in capturing increasing trends of winter temperatures like observed. The T max, T min, and T mean correlations from CFSv2 is significantly high (0.35, 0.53, and 0.51, respectively), while CFSv1 correlations are less (0.29, 0.15, and 0.12) and insignificant. This performance of CFSv2 may be due to the better estimation of surface heat budget terms and realistic CO2 concentration, which were absent in CFSv1. CFSv2 proved to have a high probability of detection in predicting different categories (below, near, and above normal) for winter T min, which are required for crop yield and public utility services, over north India.

Does Day Length Affect Winter Bird Distribution? Testing the Role of an Elusive Variable

PubMed Central

Carrascal, Luis M.; Santos, Tomás; Tellería, José L.

2012-01-01

Differences in day length may act as a critical factor in bird biology by introducing time constraints in energy acquisition during winter. Thus, differences in day length might operate as a main determinant of bird abundance along latitudinal gradients. This work examines the influence of day length on the abundance of wintering crested tits (Lophophanes cristatus) in 26 localities of Spanish juniper (Juniperus thurifera) dwarf woodlands (average height of 5 m) located along a latitudinal gradient in the Spanish highlands, while controlling for the influence of food availability, minimum night temperature, habitat structure and landscape characteristics. Top regression models in the AIC framework explained 56% of variance in bird numbers. All models incorporated day length as the variable with the highest magnitude effect. Food availability also played an important role, although only the crop of ripe juniper fruits, but not arthropods, positively affected crested tit abundance. Differences in vegetation structure across localities had also a strong positive effect (average tree height and juniper tree density). Geographical variation in night temperature had no influence on crested tit distribution, despite the low winter temperatures reached in these dwarf forests. This paper demonstrates for the first time that winter bird abundance increases with day length after controlling for the effect of other environmental variables. Winter average difference in day length was only 10.5 minutes per day along the 1°47′ latitudinal interval (190 km) included in this study. This amount of time, which reaches 13.5 h accumulated throughout the winter season, appears to be large enough to affect the long-term energy budget of small passerines during winter and to shape the distribution of winter bird abundance under restrictive environmental conditions. PMID:22393442

Trend analysis of long-term temperature time series in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohsin, Tanzina; Gough, William A.

2010-08-01

As the majority of the world’s population is living in urban environments, there is growing interest in studying local urban climates. In this paper, for the first time, the long-term trends (31-162 years) of temperature change have been analyzed for the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). Annual and seasonal time series for a number of urban, suburban, and rural weather stations are considered. Non-parametric statistical techniques such as Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen slope estimation are used primarily for the assessing of the significance and detection of trends, and the sequential Mann test is used to detect any abrupt climate change. Statistically significant trends for annual mean and minimum temperatures are detected for almost all stations in the GTA. Winter is found to be the most coherent season contributing substantially to the increase in annual minimum temperature. The analyses of the abrupt changes in temperature suggest that the beginning of the increasing trend in Toronto started after the 1920s and then continued to increase to the 1960s. For all stations, there is a significant increase of annual and seasonal (particularly winter) temperatures after the 1980s. In terms of the linkage between urbanization and spatiotemporal thermal patterns, significant linear trends in annual mean and minimum temperature are detected for the period of 1878-1978 for the urban station, Toronto, while for the rural counterparts, the trends are not significant. Also, for all stations in the GTA that are situated in all directions except south of Toronto, substantial temperature change is detected for the periods of 1970-2000 and 1989-2000. It is concluded that the urbanization in the GTA has significantly contributed to the increase of the annual mean temperatures during the past three decades. In addition to urbanization, the influence of local climate, topography, and larger scale warming are incorporated in the analysis of the trends.

Stratospheric minor species vertical distributions during polar winter by balloon borne UV-Vis spectrometry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pommereau, J. P.; Piquard, J.

1994-01-01

A light, relatively cheap and easy to operate balloonborne UV-visible spectrometer was designed for investigating ozone photochemistry in the Arctic winter. The instrument was flown 11 times during the European Arctic Stratospheric Ozone Experiment (EASOE) in winter 1991-92 in Northern Scandinavia. The first simultaneous measurements of vertical distributions of aerosols, PSC's, O3, NO2 and OClO inside the vortex during flight no. 6 on 16 January, in cold conditions are reported, which show that nitrogen oxides were almost absent (lower than 100 ppt) in the stratosphere below 22 km, while a layer of relatively large OClO concentration (15 ppt) was present at the altitude of the minimum temperature.

Estimating flow rates to optimize winter habitat for centrarchid fish in Mississippi River (USA) backwaters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Barry L.; Knights, Brent C.; Barko, John W.; Gaugush, Robert F.; Soballe, David M.; James, William F.

1998-01-01

The backwaters of large rivers provide winter refuge for many riverine fish, but they often exhibit low dissolved oxygen levels due to high biological oxygen demand and low flows. Introducing water from the main channel can increase oxygen levels in backwaters, but can also increase current velocity and reduce temperature during winter, which may reduce habitat suitability for fish. In 1993, culverts were installed to introduce flow to the Finger Lakes, a system of six backwater lakes on the Mississippi River, about 160 km downstream from Minneapolis, Minnesota. The goal was to improve habitat for bluegills and black crappies during winter by providing dissolved oxygen concentrations >3 mg/L, current velocities <1 cm/s, and temperatures >1°C. To achieve these conditions, we used data on lake volume and oxygen demand to estimate the minimum flow required to maintain 3 mg/L of dissolved oxygen in each lake. Estimated flows ranged from 0.02 to 0.14 m3/s among lakes. Data gathered in winter 1994 after the culverts were opened, indicated that the estimated flows met habitat goals, but that thermal stratification and lake morphometry can reduce the volume of optimal habitat created.

Linking climate change and biological invasions: Ocean warming facilitates nonindigenous species invasions.

PubMed

Stachowicz, John J; Terwin, Jeffrey R; Whitlatch, Robert B; Osman, Richard W

2002-11-26

The spread of exotic species and climate change are among the most serious global environmental threats. Each independently causes considerable ecological damage, yet few data are available to assess whether changing climate might facilitate invasions by favoring introduced over native species. Here, we compare our long-term record of weekly sessile marine invertebrate recruitment with interannual variation in water temperature to assess the likely effect of climate change on the success and spread of introduced species. For the three most abundant introduced species of ascidian (sea squirt), the timing of the initiation of recruitment was strongly negatively correlated with winter water temperature, indicating that invaders arrived earlier in the season in years with warmer winters. Total recruitment of introduced species during the following summer also was positively correlated with winter water temperature. In contrast, the magnitude of native ascidian recruitment was negatively correlated with winter temperature (more recruitment in colder years) and the timing of native recruitment was unaffected. In manipulative laboratory experiments, two introduced compound ascidians grew faster than a native species, but only at temperatures near the maximum observed in summer. These data suggest that the greatest effects of climate change on biotic communities may be due to changing maximum and minimum temperatures rather than annual means. By giving introduced species an earlier start, and increasing the magnitude of their growth and recruitment relative to natives, global warming may facilitate a shift to dominance by nonnative species, accelerating the homogenization of the global biota.

Development of a winter wheat adjustable crop calendar model. [Colorado, Idaho, Oklahoma, Montana, Kansas, Missouri, North Dakota and Texas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, J. R. (Principal Investigator)

1979-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Least squares techniques were applied for parameter estimation of functions to predict winter wheat phenological stage with daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, daylength, and precipitation as independent variables. After parameter estimation, tests were conducted using independent data. It may generally be concluded that exponential functions have little advantage over polynomials. Precipitation was not found to significantly affect the fits. The Robertson triquadratic form, in general use for spring wheat, yielded good results, but special techniques and care are required. In most instances, equations with nonlinear effects were found to yield erratic results when utilized with averaged daily environmental values as independent variables.

High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble Projections of Future Extreme Temperature Distributions for the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Kotamarthi, V. Rao

2017-12-01

The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary conditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal-length time slices (2045-2054 and 2085-2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995-2004). Probability density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm-side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm-side shift with decreased variability. Using "business-as-usual" scenario, 5-day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5-10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥95°F days will increase by 1-2 months by the end of the century.

Climate trends of the North American prairie pothole region 1906-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Millett, B.; Johnson, W.C.; Guntenspergen, G.

2009-01-01

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is unique to North America. Its millions of wetlands and abundant ecosystem goods and services are highly sensitive to wide variations of temperature and precipitation in time and space characteristic of a strongly continental climate. Precipitation and temperature gradients across the PPR are orthogonal to each other. Precipitation nearly triples from west to east from approximately 300 mm/year to 900 mm/year, while mean annual temperature ranges from approximately 1°C in the north to nearly 10°C in the south. Twentieth-century weather records for 18 PPR weather stations representing 6 ecoregions revealed several trends. The climate generally has been getting warmer and wetter and the diurnal temperature range has decreased. Minimum daily temperatures warmed by 1.0°C, while maximum daily temperatures cooled by 0.15°C. Minimum temperature warmed more in winter than in summer, while maximum temperature cooled in summer and warmed in winter. Average annual precipitation increased by 49 mm or 9%. Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) trends reflected increasing moisture availability for most weather stations; however, several stations in the western Canadian Prairies recorded effectively drier conditions. The east-west moisture gradient steepened during the twentieth century with stations in the west becoming drier and stations in the east becoming wetter. If the moisture gradient continues to steepen, the area of productive wetland ecosystems will shrink. Consequences for wetlands would be especially severe if the future climate does not provide supplemental moisture to offset higher evaporative demand.

The Effects of Data Gaps on the Calculated Monthly Mean Maximum and Minimum Temperatures in the Continental United States: A Spatial and Temporal Study.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stooksbury, David E.; Idso, Craig D.; Hubbard, Kenneth G.

1999-05-01

Gaps in otherwise regularly scheduled observations are often referred to as missing data. This paper explores the spatial and temporal impacts that data gaps in the recorded daily maximum and minimum temperatures have on the calculated monthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures. For this analysis 138 climate stations from the United States Historical Climatology Network Daily Temperature and Precipitation Data set were selected. The selected stations had no missing maximum or minimum temperature values during the period 1951-80. The monthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures were calculated for each station for each month. For each month 1-10 consecutive days of data from each station were randomly removed. This was performed 30 times for each simulated gap period. The spatial and temporal impact of the 1-10-day data gaps were compared. The influence of data gaps is most pronounced in the continental regions during the winter and least pronounced in the southeast during the summer. In the north central plains, 10-day data gaps during January produce a standard deviation value greater than 2°C about the `true' mean. In the southeast, 10-day data gaps in July produce a standard deviation value less than 0.5°C about the mean. The results of this study will be of value in climate variability and climate trend research as well as climate assessment and impact studies.

Seasonal variation in carcass characteristics of korean cattle steers.

PubMed

Piao, M Y; Baik, M

2015-03-01

Climate temperature affects animal production. This study was conducted to evaluate whether climatic conditions affect beef carcass characteristics of Korean cattle steers. The monthly carcass characteristics of Korean cattle steers (n = 2,182,415) for 8 yr (2006 through 2013) were collected from the Korean Institute for Animal Products Quality Evaluation. Daily climate temperature (CT) and relative humidity (RH) data were collected from the Korean Meteorological Administration. Weather conditions in South Korea during summer were hot and humid, with a maximum temperature of 28.4°C and a maximum RH of 91.4%. The temperature-humidity index (THI), calculated based on CT and RH, ranges from 73 to 80 during summer. Winter in South Korea was cold, with a minimum temperature of -4.0°C and a wind-chill temperature of -6.2°C. Both marbling score (MS) and quality grade (QG) of Korean cattle steer carcasses were generally best (p<0.05) in autumn and worst in spring. A correlation analysis showed that MS and QG frequencies were not associated (p>0.05) with CT. Yield grade (YG) of Korean cattle steer carcasses was lowest (p<0.05) in winter (November to January) and highest in spring and summer (May to September). A correlation analysis revealed that YG frequency was strongly correlated (r≥0.71; p<0.01) with CT and THI values. The rib eye area, a positive YG parameter, was not associated with CT. Backfat thickness (BT), a negative YG factor, was highest in winter (November and December). The BT was strongly negatively correlated (r≤-0.74; p<0.01) with CTs. Therefore, the poor YG during winter is likely due in part to the high BT. In conclusion, YG in Korean cattle steer carcasses was worst in winter. QGs were not associated with winter or summer climatic conditions.

Seasonal Variation in Carcass Characteristics of Korean Cattle Steers

PubMed Central

Piao, M. Y.; Baik, M.

2015-01-01

Climate temperature affects animal production. This study was conducted to evaluate whether climatic conditions affect beef carcass characteristics of Korean cattle steers. The monthly carcass characteristics of Korean cattle steers (n = 2,182,415) for 8 yr (2006 through 2013) were collected from the Korean Institute for Animal Products Quality Evaluation. Daily climate temperature (CT) and relative humidity (RH) data were collected from the Korean Meteorological Administration. Weather conditions in South Korea during summer were hot and humid, with a maximum temperature of 28.4°C and a maximum RH of 91.4%. The temperature-humidity index (THI), calculated based on CT and RH, ranges from 73 to 80 during summer. Winter in South Korea was cold, with a minimum temperature of −4.0°C and a wind-chill temperature of −6.2°C. Both marbling score (MS) and quality grade (QG) of Korean cattle steer carcasses were generally best (p<0.05) in autumn and worst in spring. A correlation analysis showed that MS and QG frequencies were not associated (p>0.05) with CT. Yield grade (YG) of Korean cattle steer carcasses was lowest (p<0.05) in winter (November to January) and highest in spring and summer (May to September). A correlation analysis revealed that YG frequency was strongly correlated (r≥0.71; p<0.01) with CT and THI values. The rib eye area, a positive YG parameter, was not associated with CT. Backfat thickness (BT), a negative YG factor, was highest in winter (November and December). The BT was strongly negatively correlated (r≤−0.74; p<0.01) with CTs. Therefore, the poor YG during winter is likely due in part to the high BT. In conclusion, YG in Korean cattle steer carcasses was worst in winter. QGs were not associated with winter or summer climatic conditions. PMID:25656196

Effects of weather on survival in populations of boreal toads in Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scherer, R. D.; Muths, E.; Lambert, B.A.

2008-01-01

Understanding the relationships between animal population demography and the abiotic and biotic elements of the environments in which they live is a central objective in population ecology. For example, correlations between weather variables and the probability of survival in populations of temperate zone amphibians may be broadly applicable to several species if such correlations can be validated for multiple situations. This study focuses on the probability of survival and evaluates hypotheses based on six weather variables in three populations of Boreal Toads (Bufo boreas) from central Colorado over eight years. In addition to suggesting a relationship between some weather variables and survival probability in Boreal Toad populations, this study uses robust methods and highlights the need for demographic estimates that are precise and have minimal bias. Capture-recapture methods were used to collect the data, and the Cormack-Jolly-Seber model in program MARK was used for analysis. The top models included minimum daily winter air temperature, and the sum of the model weights for these models was 0.956. Weaker support was found for the importance of snow depth and the amount of environmental moisture in winter in modeling survival probability. Minimum daily winter air temperature was positively correlated with the probability of survival in Boreal Toads at other sites in Colorado and has been identified as an important covariate in studies in other parts of the world. If air temperatures are an important component of survival for Boreal Toads or other amphibians, changes in climate may have profound impacts on populations. Copyright 2008 Society for the Study of Amphibians and Reptiles.

Survival of rapidly fluctuating natural low winter temperatures by High Arctic soil invertebrates.

PubMed

Convey, Peter; Abbandonato, Holly; Bergan, Frode; Beumer, Larissa Teresa; Biersma, Elisabeth Machteld; Bråthen, Vegard Sandøy; D'Imperio, Ludovica; Jensen, Christina Kjellerup; Nilsen, Solveig; Paquin, Karolina; Stenkewitz, Ute; Svoen, Mildrid Elvik; Winkler, Judith; Müller, Eike; Coulson, Stephen James

2015-12-01

The extreme polar environment creates challenges for its resident invertebrate communities and the stress tolerance of some of these animals has been examined over many years. However, although it is well appreciated that standard air temperature records often fail to describe accurately conditions experienced at microhabitat level, few studies have explicitly set out to link field conditions experienced by natural multispecies communities with the more detailed laboratory ecophysiological studies of a small number of 'representative' species. This is particularly the case during winter, when snow cover may insulate terrestrial habitats from extreme air temperature fluctuations. Further, climate projections suggest large changes in precipitation will occur in the polar regions, with the greatest changes expected during the winter period and, hence, implications for the insulation of overwintering microhabitats. To assess survival of natural High Arctic soil invertebrate communities contained in soil and vegetation cores to natural winter temperature variations, the overwintering temperatures they experienced were manipulated by deploying cores in locations with varying snow accumulation: No Snow, Shallow Snow (30 cm) and Deep Snow (120 cm). Air temperatures during the winter period fluctuated frequently between +3 and -24 °C, and the No Snow soil temperatures reflected this variation closely, with the extreme minimum being slightly lower. Under 30 cm of snow, soil temperatures varied less and did not decrease below -12 °C. Those under deep snow were even more stable and did not decline below -2 °C. Despite these striking differences in winter thermal regimes, there were no clear differences in survival of the invertebrate fauna between treatments, including oribatid, prostigmatid and mesostigmatid mites, Araneae, Collembola, Nematocera larvae or Coleoptera. This indicates widespread tolerance, previously undocumented for the Araneae, Nematocera or Coleoptera, of both direct exposure to at least -24 °C and the rapid and large temperature fluctuations. These results suggest that the studied polar soil invertebrate community may be robust to at least one important predicted consequence of projected climate change. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation of daily minimum land surface air temperature using MODIS data in southern Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Didari, Shohreh; Norouzi, Hamidreza; Zand-Parsa, Shahrokh; Khanbilvardi, Reza

2017-11-01

Land surface air temperature (LSAT) is a key variable in agricultural, climatological, hydrological, and environmental studies. Many of their processes are affected by LSAT at about 5 cm from the ground surface (LSAT5cm). Most of the previous studies tried to find statistical models to estimate LSAT at 2 m height (LSAT2m) which is considered as a standardized height, and there is not enough study for LSAT5cm estimation models. Accurate measurements of LSAT5cm are generally acquired from meteorological stations, which are sparse in remote areas. Nonetheless, remote sensing data by providing rather extensive spatial coverage can complement the spatiotemporal shortcomings of meteorological stations. The main objective of this study was to find a statistical model from the previous day to accurately estimate spatial daily minimum LSAT5cm, which is very important in agricultural frost, in Fars province in southern Iran. Land surface temperature (LST) data were obtained using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard Aqua and Terra satellites at daytime and nighttime periods with normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data. These data along with geometric temperature and elevation information were used in a stepwise linear model to estimate minimum LSAT5cm during 2003-2011. The results revealed that utilization of MODIS Aqua nighttime data of previous day provides the most applicable and accurate model. According to the validation results, the accuracy of the proposed model was suitable during 2012 (root mean square difference ( RMSD) = 3.07 °C, {R}_{adj}^2 = 87 %). The model underestimated (overestimated) high (low) minimum LSAT5cm. The accuracy of estimation in the winter time was found to be lower than the other seasons ( RMSD = 3.55 °C), and in summer and winter, the errors were larger than in the remaining seasons.

Ring-widths of the above tree-line shrub Rhododendron reveal the change of minimum winter temperature over the past 211 years in Southwestern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bi, Yingfeng; Xu, Jianchu; Yang, Jinchao; Li, Zongshan; Gebrekirstos, Aster; Liang, Eryuan; Zhang, Shibao; Yang, Yang; Yang, Yongping; Yang, Xuefei

2017-06-01

Changes in minimum winter temperature (MWT) and their potential effects on plant growth and development have been gaining increased scientific attention. To better understand these changes across long temporal scales, the present study used dendroclimatological techniques to assess variations in MWT in Southwestern China. Using data from Rhododendron species distributed in areas above the tree-line, a regional composite chronology was generated for a 341-year period. Based on the significant negative correlation between MWT values and ring-width, the most reliable parts of this chronological data were then used to reconstruct MWT values for the past 211 years. This reconstructed MWT series showed decadal to multi-decadal fluctuations. Three distinct cold periods prevailed during 1823-1858, 1882-1891 and 1922-1965, while four warm intervals occurred in 1800-1822, 1858-1881, 1892-1921 and 1966-2011. Our reconstructed MWT reveals a warming trend over the most recent eight decades, which is in agreement with instrumental observations. However, the MWT values and rate of warming over the past seven decades did not exceed those found in the reconstructed temperature data for the past 211 years. Spatial correlations reveal that the MWT in Southwest China is strongly associated with regional temperatures in the Eastern and Central Himalaya, Northern China, and the Indian Peninsula. Larger scale climate oscillations of the Western Pacific and Northern Indian Ocean as well as the North Atlantic Oscillation probably influenced the region's temperature in the past.

Mainstem Clearwater River Study: Assessment for Salmonid Spawning, Incubation, and Rearing.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Conner, William P.

1989-01-01

Chinook salmon reproduced naturally in the Clearwater River until damming of the lower mainstem in 1927 impeded upstream spawning migrations and decimated the populations. Removal of the Washington Water Power Dam in 1973 reopened upriver passage. This study was initiated to determine the feasibility of re-introducing chinook salmon into the lower mainstem Clearwater River based on the temperature and flow regimes, water quality, substrate, and invertebrate production since the completion of Dworshak Dam in 1972. Temperature data obtained from the United States Geological Survey gaging stations at Peck and Spalding, Idaho, were used to calculate average minimum and maximum watermore » temperature on a daily, monthly and yearly basis. The coldest and warmest (absolute minimum and maximum) temperatures that have occurred in the past 15 years were also identified. Our analysis indicates that average lower mainstem Clearwater River water temperatures are suitable for all life stages of chinook salmon, and also for steelhead trout rearing. In some years absolute maximum water temperatures in late summer may postpone adult staging and spawning. Absolute minimum temperatures have been recorded that could decrease overwinter survival of summer chinook juveniles and fall chinook eggs depending on the quality of winter hiding cover and the prevalence of intra-gravel freezing in the lower mainstem Clearwater River.« less

Quantification of climate and vegetation from southern African Middle Stone Age sites - an application using Late Pleistocene plant material from Sibudu, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruch, Angela A.; Sievers, Christine; Wadley, Lyn

2012-06-01

In southern Africa numerous Middle Stone Age (MSA) sites document important steps in technological and behavioural development leading to significant changes in the lifeways of modern humans. To assess whether these cultural changes and developments may be related to environmental changes we need to ascertain past environments. To do this we apply a new quantitative method, the GIS-based Coexistence Approach (CAGIS), on fossil plant material from the MSA site Sibudu, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Previous qualitative environmental interpretations of the fossil fauna and flora of the site remain ambiguous. Because much of the material is anthropogenically introduced, it is difficult to distinguish between the effects of natural changes in the local vegetation and behavioural changes of the people that inhabited the shelter. CAGIS can be applied to such biased assemblages and seems to be an adequate method to directly quantify palaeoclimate and vegetation parameters at an archaeological site. The CAGIS analysis shows that during the Howiesons Poort (HP) Industry winters were slightly colder and drier than present, whereas during summer, temperatures and precipitation were similar to today. Post-HP winters were drier and colder than present, presumably colder than during the HP. Summer temperatures remained the same, but summer precipitation decreased from the HP to post-HP. Vegetation cover was less than today, may be even less than during the HP. The late MSA was observably warmer than the older periods, especially during winter. At the same time summer precipitation slightly increased and vegetation became more dense, but still remained generally open similar to today's anthropogenic landscape. Generally, climatic changes are most pronouncedly reflected in winter temperature parameters, especially in minimum winter temperatures, and to a lesser extent by changes in summer precipitation. The observed ecological trends seem to be affected mainly by variations through time in winter temperatures. This refinement of interpretation was not discernible using previous methods for analysing the Sibudu data.

Severe European winters in a secular perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoy, Andreas; Hänsel, Stephanie

2017-04-01

Temperature conditions during the winter time are substantially shaped by a strong year-to-year variability. European winters since the late 1980s - compared to previous decades and centuries - were mainly characterised by a high temperature level, including recent record-warm winters. Yet, comparably cold winters and severe cold spells still occur nowadays, like recently observed from 2009 to 2013 and in early 2017. Central England experienced its second coldest December since start of observations more than 350 years ago in 2010, and some of the lowest temperatures ever measured in northern Europe (below -50 °C in Lapland) were recorded in January 1999. Analysing thermal characteristics and spatial distribution of severe (historical) winters - using early instrumental data - helps expanding and consolidating our knowledge of past weather extremes. This contribution presents efforts towards this direction. We focus on a) compiling and assessing a very long-term instrumental, spatially widespread and well-distributed, high-quality meteorological data set to b) investigate very cold winter temperatures in Europe from early measurements until today. In a first step, we analyse the longest available time series of monthly temperature averages within Europe. Our dataset extends from the Nordic countries up to the Mediterranean and from the British Isles up to Russia. We utilise as much as possible homogenised times series in order to ensure reliable results. Homogenised data derive from the NORDHOM (Scandinavia) and HISTALP (greater alpine region) datasets or were obtained from national weather services and universities. Other (not specifically homogenised) data were derived from the ECA&D dataset or national institutions. The employed time series often start already during the 18th century, with Paris & Central England being the longest datasets (from 1659). In a second step, daily temperature averages are involved. Only some of those series are homogenised, but those available are sufficiently distributed throughout Europe to ensure reliable results. Furthermore, the comparably dense network of long-term observations allows an appropriate quality checking within the network. Additionally, the large collective of homogenised monthly data enables assessing the quality of many daily series. Daily data are used to sum up negative values for the respective winter periods to create times series of "cold summations", which are a good indicator for the severeness of winters in most parts of Europe. Additionally, days below certain thresholds may be counted or summed up. Future work will include daily minimum and maximum temperatures, allowing calculating and applying an extensive set of climate indices, refining the work presented here.

High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble Projections of Future Extreme Temperature Distributions for the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.

The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary con- ditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal-length time slices (2045–2054 and 2085–2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995–2004). Probabilitymore » density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm-side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm-side shift with decreased variability. Finally, using "business-as-usual" scenario, 5-day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5–10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥ 95°F days will increase by 1–2 months by the end of the century.« less

High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble Projections of Future Extreme Temperature Distributions for the United States

DOE PAGES

Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.; ...

2017-11-20

The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary con- ditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal-length time slices (2045–2054 and 2085–2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995–2004). Probabilitymore » density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm-side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm-side shift with decreased variability. Finally, using "business-as-usual" scenario, 5-day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5–10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥ 95°F days will increase by 1–2 months by the end of the century.« less

Vanishing river ice cover in the lower part of the Danube basin - signs of a changing climate.

PubMed

Ionita, M; Badaluta, C -A; Scholz, P; Chelcea, S

2018-05-21

Many of the world's largest rivers in the extra tropics are covered with ice during the cold season, and in the Northern Hemisphere approximately 60% of the rivers experience significant seasonal effects of river ice. Here we present an observational data set of the ice cover regime for the lower part of the Danube River which spans over the period 1837-2016, and its the longest one on record over this area. The results in this study emphasize the strong impact of climate change on the occurrence of ice regime especially in the second part of the 20 th century. The number of ice cover days has decreased considerably (~28days/century) mainly due to an increase in the winter mean temperature. In a long-term context, based on documentary evidences, we show that the ice cover occurrence rate was relatively small throughout the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), while the highest occurrence rates were found during the Maunder Minimum and Dalton Minimum periods. We conclude that the river ice regime can be used as a proxy for the winter temperature over the analyzed region and as an indicator of climate-change related impacts.

Seasonal variation of sudden infant death syndrome in Hawaii.

PubMed

Mage, David T

2004-11-01

To test whether the sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) rate displays the universal winter maximum and summer minimum in Hawaii where there is no appreciable seasonal variation of temperature. The null hypothesis is tested that there is no seasonal variation of necropsied SIDS in Hawaii. The numbers of live births and SIDS cases by month for the years 1979 to 2002 were collected and the monthly SIDS distribution is predicted based on the age at death distribution. The state of Hawaii, located in the midst of the Pacific Ocean, has a semi-tropical climate with temperatures fluctuating diurnally as 25 +/- 5 degrees C throughout the year. Therefore homes are unheated and infants are not excessively swaddled. The Hawaii State Department of Health maintains vital statistics of all infant births and deaths. The results reject the null hypothesis of no seasonal variation of SIDS (p = 0.026). An explanation for the seasonal effect of the winter maximum and summer minimum for Hawaiian SIDS is that it arises from the cycle of the school session and summer vacation periods that represent variable intensity of a possible viral infection vector. SIDS rates in both Hawaii and the United States increase with parity, also indicating a possible role of school age siblings as carriers. The winter peak of the SIDS in Hawaii is support for the hypothesis that a low grade viral infection, insufficient by itself to be a visible cause of death at necropsy, may be implicated as contributing to SIDS in vulnerable infants.

Secular Trend of Surface Temperature at an Elevated Observatory in the Pyrenees.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bücher, A.; Dessens, J.

1991-08-01

Surface temperature was measured at the Pic du Midi de Bigorre, 2862 m MSL, from the foundation of the Observatory in 1878 until the closing of the meteorological station in 1984. After testing the homogeneity of the series with the annual mean temperatures in western Europe and in southwestern France, the period 1882-1970 was retained for trend analysis.The mean annual temperature increased 0.83°C during the 89-yr period. This increase is the sum of a very significant increase in the daily minimum temperature (+ 2.11°C) and a decrease in the maximum temperature ( 0.45°C). In consequence, the most dramatic change in the temperature regime was the difference between maximum and minimum; this decreased from 8.05°C in 1882 to 5.49°C in 1970. A mean increase is observed in all seasons, but, as for western Europe, it is stronger in spring and fall than in winter and summer.Analysis of cloudiness data for the same period shows a 15% increase in annual mean cloudiness and also significant year-to-year correlations between cloudiness and the maximum and minimum temperature. In consequence, the change in the temperature regime observed at the Pic du Midi since the end of last century is most probably the result of a climatic change involving an increase in cloud cover and, maybe, an increasing greenhouse effect.

Towards understanding temporal and spatial dynamics of Bactrocera oleae (Rossi) infestations using decade-long agrometeorological time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marchi, Susanna; Guidotti, Diego; Ricciolini, Massimo; Petacchi, Ruggero

2016-11-01

Insect dynamics depend on temperature patterns, and therefore, global warming may lead to increasing frequencies and intensities of insect outbreaks. The aim of this work was to analyze the dynamics of the olive fruit fly, Bactrocera oleae (Rossi), in Tuscany (Italy). We profited from long-term records of insect infestation and weather data available from the regional database and agrometeorological network. We tested whether the analysis of 13 years of monitoring campaigns can be used as basis for prediction models of B. oleae infestation. We related the percentage of infestation observed in the first part of the host-pest interaction and throughout the whole year to agrometeorological indices formulated for different time periods. A two-step approach was adopted to inspect the effect of weather on infestation: generalized linear model with a binomial error distribution and principal component regression to reduce the number of the agrometeorological factors and remove their collinearity. We found a consistent relationship between the degree of infestation and the temperature-based indices calculated for the previous period. The relationship was stronger with the minimum temperature of winter season. Higher infestation was observed in years following warmer winters. The temperature of the previous winter and spring explained 66 % of variance of early-season infestation. The temperature of previous winter and spring, and current summer, explained 72 % of variance of total annual infestation. These results highlight the importance of multiannual monitoring activity to fully understand the dynamics of B. oleae populations at a regional scale.

Towards understanding temporal and spatial dynamics of Bactrocera oleae (Rossi) infestations using decade-long agrometeorological time series.

PubMed

Marchi, Susanna; Guidotti, Diego; Ricciolini, Massimo; Petacchi, Ruggero

2016-11-01

Insect dynamics depend on temperature patterns, and therefore, global warming may lead to increasing frequencies and intensities of insect outbreaks. The aim of this work was to analyze the dynamics of the olive fruit fly, Bactrocera oleae (Rossi), in Tuscany (Italy). We profited from long-term records of insect infestation and weather data available from the regional database and agrometeorological network. We tested whether the analysis of 13 years of monitoring campaigns can be used as basis for prediction models of B. oleae infestation. We related the percentage of infestation observed in the first part of the host-pest interaction and throughout the whole year to agrometeorological indices formulated for different time periods. A two-step approach was adopted to inspect the effect of weather on infestation: generalized linear model with a binomial error distribution and principal component regression to reduce the number of the agrometeorological factors and remove their collinearity. We found a consistent relationship between the degree of infestation and the temperature-based indices calculated for the previous period. The relationship was stronger with the minimum temperature of winter season. Higher infestation was observed in years following warmer winters. The temperature of the previous winter and spring explained 66 % of variance of early-season infestation. The temperature of previous winter and spring, and current summer, explained 72 % of variance of total annual infestation. These results highlight the importance of multiannual monitoring activity to fully understand the dynamics of B. oleae populations at a regional scale.

The potential impacts of climate variability and change on temperature-related morbidity and mortality in the United States.

PubMed

McGeehin, M A; Mirabelli, M

2001-05-01

Heat and heat waves are projected to increase in severity and frequency with increasing global mean temperatures. Studies in urban areas show an association between increases in mortality and increases in heat, measured by maximum or minimum temperature, heat index, and sometimes, other weather conditions. Health effects associated with exposure to extreme and prolonged heat appear to be related to environmental temperatures above those to which the population is accustomed. Models of weather-mortality relationships indicate that populations in northeastern and midwestern U.S. cities are likely to experience the greatest number of illnesses and deaths in response to changes in summer temperature. Physiologic and behavioral adaptations may reduce morbidity and mortality. Within heat-sensitive regions, urban populations are the most vulnerable to adverse heat-related health outcomes. The elderly, young children, the poor, and people who are bedridden or are on certain medications are at particular risk. Heat-related illnesses and deaths are largely preventable through behavioral adaptations, including the use of air conditioning and increased fluid intake. Overall death rates are higher in winter than in summer, and it is possible that milder winters could reduce deaths in winter months. However, the relationship between winter weather and mortality is difficult to interpret. Other adaptation measures include heat emergency plans, warning systems, and illness management plans. Research is needed to identify critical weather parameters, the associations between heat and nonfatal illnesses, the evaluation of implemented heat response plans, and the effectiveness of urban design in reducing heat retention.

Analysis and modeling of extreme temperatures in several cities in northwestern Mexico under climate change conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Cueto, O. Rafael; Cavazos, M. Tereza; de Grau, Pamela; Santillán-Soto, Néstor

2014-04-01

The generalized extreme value distribution is applied in this article to model the statistical behavior of the maximum and minimum temperature distribution tails in four cities of Baja California in northwestern Mexico, using data from 1950-2010. The approach used of the maximum of annual time blocks. Temporal trends were included as covariates in the location parameter (μ), which resulted in significant improvements to the proposed models, particularly for the extreme maximum temperature values in the cities of Mexicali, Tijuana, and Tecate, and the extreme minimum temperature values in Mexicali and Ensenada. These models were used to estimate future probabilities over the next 100 years (2015-2110) for different time periods, and they were compared with changes in the extreme (P90th and P10th) percentiles of maximum and minimum temperature scenarios for a set of six general circulation models under low (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) radiative forcings. By the end of the twenty-first century, the scenarios of the changes in extreme maximum summer temperature are of the same order in both the statistical model and the high radiative scenario (increases of 4-5 °C). The low radiative scenario is more conservative (increases of 2-3 °C). The winter scenario shows that minimum temperatures could be less severe; the temperature increases suggested by the probabilistic model are greater than those projected for the end of the century by the set of global models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The likely impacts on the region are discussed.

Variability of AVHRR-Derived Clear-Sky Surface Temperature over the Greenland Ice Sheet.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroeve, Julienne; Steffen, Konrad

1998-01-01

The Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer is used to derive surface temperatures for one satellite pass under clear skies over the Greenland ice sheet from 1989 through 1993. The results of these temperatures are presented as monthly means, and their spatial and temporal variability are discussed. Accuracy of the dry snow surface temperatures is estimated to be better than 1 K during summer. This error is expected to increase during polar night due to problems in cloud identification. Results indicate the surface temperature of the Greenland ice sheet is strongly dominated by topography, with minimum surface temperatures associated with the high elevation regions. In the summer, maximum surface temperatures occur during July along the western coast and southern tip of the ice sheet. Minimum temperatures are found at the summit during summer and move farther north during polar night. Large interannual variability in surface temperatures occurs during winter associated with katabatic storm events. Summer temperatures show little variation, although 1992 stands out as being colder than the other years. The reason for the lower temperatures during 1992 is believed to be a result of the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo.

Ecological covariates based predictive model of malaria risk in the state of Chhattisgarh, India.

PubMed

Kumar, Rajesh; Dash, Chinmaya; Rani, Khushbu

2017-09-01

Malaria being an endemic disease in the state of Chhattisgarh and ecologically dependent mosquito-borne disease, the study is intended to identify the ecological covariates of malaria risk in districts of the state and to build a suitable predictive model based on those predictors which could assist developing a weather based early warning system. This secondary data based analysis used one month lagged district level malaria positive cases as response variable and ecological covariates as independent variables which were tested with fixed effect panelled negative binomial regression models. Interactions among the covariates were explored using two way factorial interaction in the model. Although malaria risk in the state possesses perennial characteristics, higher parasitic incidence was observed during the rainy and winter seasons. The univariate analysis indicated that the malaria incidence risk was statistically significant associated with rainfall, maximum humidity, minimum temperature, wind speed, and forest cover ( p  < 0.05). The efficient predictive model include the forest cover [IRR-1.033 (1.024-1.042)], maximum humidity [IRR-1.016 (1.013-1.018)], and two-way factorial interactions between district specific averaged monthly minimum temperature and monthly minimum temperature, monthly minimum temperature was statistically significant [IRR-1.44 (1.231-1.695)] whereas the interaction term has a protective effect [IRR-0.982 (0.974-0.990)] against malaria infections. Forest cover, maximum humidity, minimum temperature and wind speed emerged as potential covariates to be used in predictive models for modelling the malaria risk in the state which could be efficiently used for early warning systems in the state.

The temperature characteristics of biological active period of the peat soils of Bakchar swamp

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiselev, M. V.; Dyukarev, E. A.; Voropay, N. N.

2018-01-01

The results of the study of the peculiarities of the temperature regime in the five basic ecosystems of oligotrophic bogs in the south taiga zone of Western Siberia in 2011-2016 are presented. The soil temperature regime was studied using the atmospheric-soil measuring complex at different depths from surface to 240 cm. All sites were divided into two groups according the bog water level: flooded sites (hollow and open fen) and drained sites (ridge, tall and low ryam). Waterlogged sites are better warmed in the summer period, and slowly freeze in the winter period. The analysis of the annual cycle of temperature showed that the maximum surface temperature is observed in July. The minimum temperature on the surface observed in February or January. The greatest temperature gradient was recorded in the upper 2 cm layer. The gradient at the open fen was -2 °C·cm-1 in February and 1.1 °C·cm-1 in October. The peak of formation of the seasonally frozen layer occurs at the end of autumn, beginning of winter. The degradation of the seasonally frozen layer was observed both from top and bottom, but degradation from the top is faster.

Persistence and long-term memories of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in southern South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naumann, Gustavo; Vargas, Walter M.; Minetti, Juan L.

2011-10-01

The persistence and long-term memories in daily maximum and minimum temperature series during the instrumental period in southern South America were analysed. Here, we found a markedly seasonal pattern both for short- and long-term memories that can lead to enhanced predictability on intraseasonal timescales. In addition, well-defined spatial patterns of these properties were found in the region. Throughout the entire region, the strongest dependence was observed in autumn and early winter. In the Patagonia region only, the temperatures exhibited more memory during the spring. In general, these elements indicate that nonlinear interactions exist between the annual cycles of temperature and its anomalies. Knowledge of the spatiotemporal behaviour of these long-term memories can be used in the building of stochastic models that only use persistence. It is possible to propose two objective forecast models based on linear interactions associated with persistence and one that allows for the use of information from nonlinear interactions that are manifested in the form of forerunners.

Trends in extremes of temperature, dew point, and precipitation from long instrumental series from central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kürbis, K.; Mudelsee, M.; Tetzlaff, G.; Brázdil, R.

2009-09-01

For the analysis of trends in weather extremes, we introduce a diagnostic index variable, the exceedance product, which combines intensity and frequency of extremes. We separate trends in higher moments from trends in mean or standard deviation and use bootstrap resampling to evaluate statistical significances. The application of the concept of the exceedance product to daily meteorological time series from Potsdam (1893 to 2005) and Prague-Klementinum (1775 to 2004) reveals that extremely cold winters occurred only until the mid-20th century, whereas warm winters show upward trends. These changes were significant in higher moments of the temperature distribution. In contrast, trends in summer temperature extremes (e.g., the 2003 European heatwave) can be explained by linear changes in mean or standard deviation. While precipitation at Potsdam does not show pronounced trends, dew point does exhibit a change from maximum extremes during the 1960s to minimum extremes during the 1970s.

Trends in snowfall versus rainfall in the western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knowles, N.; Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.

2006-01-01

The water resources of the western United States depend heavily on snowpack to store part of the wintertime precipitation into the drier summer months. A well-documented shift toward earlier runoff in recent decades has been attributed to 1) more precipitation falling as rain instead of snow and 2) earlier snowmelt. The present study addresses the former, documenting a regional trend toward smaller ratios of winter-total snowfall water equivalent (SFE) to winter-total precipitation (P) during the period 1949-2004. The trends toward reduce d SFE are a response to warming across the region, with the most significant reductions occurring where winter wet-day minimum temperatures, averaged over the study period, were warmer than -5??C. Most SFE reductions were associated with winter wet-day temperature increases between 0?? and +3??C over the study period. Warmings larger than this occurred mainly at sites where the mean temperatures were cool enough that the precipitation form was less susceptible to warming trends. The trends toward reduced SFE/P ratios w ere most pronounced in March regionwide and in January near the West Coast, corresponding, to widespread warming in these months. While mean temperatures in March were sufficiently high to allow the warming, trend to produce SFE/P declines across the study region, mean January temperatures were cooler. with the result that January SFE/P impacts were restricted to the lower elevations near the West Coast. Extending the analysis back to 1920 sho ws that although the trends presented here may be partially attributable to interdecadal climate variability associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation. they also appear to result from still longer-term climate shifts.

Numerical simulation of ozone loss in the Antarctic winters 2005-2008: Comparison with MLS measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuttippurath, J.; Godin-Beekmann, S.; Lefevre, F.; Pazmino, A.

2009-04-01

The ozone loss in the recent Antarctic winters were high enough to pause a lag in the recovery phase of stratospheric ozone above this continent. We quantitatively examine the extent of ozone loss variability during 2005-2008 with simulations from a high resolution chemical transport model, MIMOSA-CHIM. The simulated results are cross-checked with the observed loss from Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) satellite sensor data. This study uses the vortex averaged data at the potential temperature level 475 K from both MIMOSA and MLS to estimate the ozone loss by transport method. Minimum temperatures calculated from ECMWF analyzes over 50-90°S at 475 K are coldest in 2008 during June-July and in 2006 during September-November. In general, Antarctic winters experience NAT temperatures from mid-May to mid-October and ICE temperatures from June to September. Due to the saturation of chemical ozone loss, the year-to-year difference in temperatures do not have a large effect. The estimated cumulative ozone loss from MIMOSA-CHIM at 475 K is 3.2 in 2005, 2.9 in 2006, 2.8 in 2007 and 2.0 ppm in 2008. The measured cumulative loss in the respective years also show similar values: respectively 3.3, 3.2, 2.8 and 2.2 ppm in 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008. Both data sets show the same loss trend, as the cumulative loss is highest in 2005 followed by 2006 and the lowest in 2008, and are in accord with the chlorine activation and denitrification found in the respective winters. The simulations in 2008 lack adequate diabatic descent as assessed from tracer simulations in comparison with measurements. This eventually produced relatively lower values for ozone loss in 2008 in both data sets even though the observed chlorine activation was found to be similar to previous winters.

Life stage influences the resistance and resilience of black mangrove forests to winter climate extremes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Osland, Michael J.; Day, Richard H.; From, Andrew S.; McCoy, Megan L.; McLeod, Jennie L.; Kelleway, Jeffrey

2015-01-01

In subtropical coastal wetlands on multiple continents, climate change-induced reductions in the frequency and intensity of freezing temperatures are expected to lead to the expansion of woody plants (i.e., mangrove forests) at the expense of tidal grasslands (i.e., salt marshes). Since some ecosystem goods and services would be affected by mangrove range expansion, there is a need to better understand mangrove sensitivity to freezing temperatures as well as the implications of changing winter climate extremes for mangrove-salt marsh interactions. In this study, we investigated the following questions: (1) how does plant life stage (i.e., ontogeny) influence the resistance and resilience of black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) forests to freezing temperatures; and (2) how might differential life stage responses to freeze events affect the rate of mangrove expansion and salt marsh displacement due to climate change? To address these questions, we quantified freeze damage and recovery for different life stages (seedling, short tree, and tall tree) following extreme winter air temperature events that occurred near the northern range limit of A. germinans in North America. We found that life stage affects black mangrove forest resistance and resilience to winter climate extremes in a nonlinear fashion. Resistance to winter climate extremes was high for tall A. germinans trees and seedlings, but lowest for short trees. Resilience was highest for tall A. germinans trees. These results suggest the presence of positive feedbacks and indicate that climate-change induced decreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme minimum air temperatures could lead to a nonlinear increase in mangrove forest resistance and resilience. This feedback could accelerate future mangrove expansion and salt marsh loss at rates beyond what would be predicted from climate change alone. In general terms, our study highlights the importance of accounting for differential life stage responses and positive feedbacks when evaluating the ecological effects of changes in the frequency and magnitude of climate extremes.

Body Temperatures in the Elderly: A National Study of Physiological, Social, and Environmental Conditions

PubMed Central

Fox, R. H.; Woodward, Patricia M.; Exton-Smith, A. N.; Green, M. F.; Donnison, D. V.; Wicks, M. H.

1973-01-01

Two large-scale surveys of body temperatures in elderly people living at home were carried out in the winter of 1972. Most of the homes visited were cold with room temperatures below the minimum recommended by the Department of Health. Deep body temperatures below 35·5°C were found in 10% of those studied, and the difference between the skin temperature and the core temperature was also reduced in this group. Such individuals are at risk of developing hypothermia since they show evidence of some degree of thermoregulatory failure. Further research is needed, but meanwhile there are practical measures that could be taken to reduce the risk of hypothermia in the elderly. PMID:4686555

Smaller beaks for colder winters: Thermoregulation drives beak size evolution in Australasian songbirds.

PubMed

Friedman, Nicholas R; Harmáčková, Lenka; Economo, Evan P; Remeš, Vladimír

2017-08-01

Birds' beaks play a key role in foraging, and most research on their size and shape has focused on this function. Recent findings suggest that beaks may also be important for thermoregulation, and this may drive morphological evolution as predicted by Allen's rule. However, the role of thermoregulation in the evolution of beak size across species remains largely unexplored. In particular, it remains unclear whether the need for retaining heat in the winter or dissipating heat in the summer plays the greater role in selection for beak size. Comparative studies are needed to evaluate the relative importance of these functions in beak size evolution. We addressed this question in a clade of birds exhibiting wide variation in their climatic niche: the Australasian honeyeaters and allies (Meliphagoidea). Across 158 species, we compared species' climatic conditions extracted from their ranges to beak size measurements in a combined spatial-phylogenetic framework. We found that winter minimum temperature was positively correlated with beak size, while summer maximum temperature was not. This suggests that while diet and foraging behavior may drive evolutionary changes in beak shape, changes in beak size can also be explained by the beak's role in thermoregulation, and winter heat retention in particular. © 2017 The Author(s). Evolution © 2017 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Do Peatlands Hibernate?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorrepaal, E.; Signarbieux, C.; Jassey, V.; Mills, R.; Buttler, A.; Robroek, B.

2014-12-01

Winter seasonality with extensive frost, snow cover and low incoming radiation characterise large areas at mid- and high latitudes, especially in mountain ranges and in the arctic. Given these adverse conditions, it is often assumed that ecosystem processes, such as plant photosynthesis, nutrient uptake and microbial activities, cease, or at best diminish to marginal rates compared to summer. However, snow is a good thermal insulator and a sufficiently thick snow cover might enable temperature-limited processes to continue in winter, especially belowground. Changes in winter precipitation may alter these conditions, yet, relative to the growing season, winter ecosystem processes remain poorly understood. We performed a snow-removal experiment on an ombrotrophic bog in the Swiss Jura mountains (1036 m.a.s.l.) to compare above- and belowground ecosystem processes with and without snow cover during mid- and late-winter (February and April) with the subsequent spring (June) and summer (July). The presence of 1m snow in mid-winter and 0.4m snow in late-winter strongly reduced the photosynthetic capacity (Amax) of Eriophorum vaginatum as well as the total microbial biomass compared to spring and summer values. Amax of Sphagnum magellanicum and uptake of 15N-labelled ammonium-nitrate by vascular plants were, however, almost as high or higher in mid- and late-winter as in summer. Snow removal increased the number of freeze-thaw cycles in mid-winter but also increased the minimum soil temperature in late-winter before ambient snow-melt. This strongly reduced all measured ecosystem processes in mid-winter compared to control and to spring and summer values. Plant 15N-uptake, Amax of Eriophorum and total microbial biomass returned to, or exceeded, control values soon before or after snowmelt. However, Sphagnum Amax and its length growth, as well as the structure of the microbial community showed clear carry-over effects of the reduced winter snow cover into next summer. Altogether, our data indicate that peatlands are active in winter. However, a continuous snow cover is crucial for ecosystem processes both in winter and in the subsequent summer and a reduction of snow thickness or duration due to climate change may impact on peatland ecosystem functioning at various levels.

Impact of elevated carbon dioxide on soil heat storage and heat flux under unheated low-tunnels conditions.

PubMed

Al-Kayssi, A W; Mustafa, S H

2016-11-01

Suboptimal regimes of air and soil temperature usually occur under unheated low-tunnels during winter crop cycles. CO2 is one of the most important gases linked to climate change and posing challenge to the current agricultural productivity. Field experiment was conducted in unheated low-tunnels (10.0 m long, 1.5 m wide and 1.0 m high) during winter and spring periods to evaluate the increasing CO2 concentration (352, 709, 1063, 1407, and 1761 ppm) on net radiation budget, soil-air thermal regime and pepper plants growth development and yield. CO2 was injected into each hollow space of the tunnel double-layer transparent polyethylene covers. Recorded integral net longwave radiation increased from 524.81 to 1111.84 Wm(-2) on January when CO2 concentration increased from 352 to 1761 ppm. A similar trend was recorded on February. Moreover, minimum soil surface and air temperatures were markedly increased from -1.3 and -6.8 °C to 3.4 and 0.6 °C, when CO2 concentration increased from 352 to 1761 ppm. Additionally, soil heat flux as well as soil heat storage increased with increasing CO2 concentrations accordingly. Increasing the tunnel minimum air and soil temperatures with the CO2 concentration treatments 1063, 1407 and 1761 ppm reflected in a significant pepper yield (3.19, 5.06 and 6.13 kg m(-2)) due to the modification of the surrounding plants microenvironment and prevented pepper plants from freezing and the accelerated the plant growth. On the contrary, the drop of minimum air and soil temperatures to freezing levels with the CO2 concentration treatments 352 and 709 ppm resulted in the deterioration of pepper plants development during the early growth stages on January. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Record-breaking Ozone Loss during Arctic Winter 2010/2011: Comparison with Arctic Winter 1996/1997

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Godin Beekmann, S.; Kuttipurath, J.; Lefèvre, F.; Santee, M. L.; Froidevaux, L.

2011-12-01

Polar processing and chemical ozone loss is analysed during the Arctic winter/spring 2010/2011. The analyses with temperatures and potential vorticity (PV) data show a prolonged vortex from early December through mid-April. The PV maps illustrate strong vortex persistence in the lower stratosphere between 450 and 675 K, showing similar evolution with time. The minimum temperatures extracted from ECMWF data at 40-90°N show values below 195 K for a record period of first week of December through second week of April, indicating the longest period of colder temperatures for 17 years. At 10 hPa, there was a warming of about 10 K at 60°N and 40 K at 90°N around mid-January. The heat flux also showed high values in line with the increase in temperatures, of about 425 m K/s at 60°N at the same pressure level. However, the westerlies were strong (e.g. 35-45 m/s at 60°N) enough to keep the vortex intact until mid-April. Because of the cold temperatures in late winter and early spring, large areas of Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSC) were found in the 400-600 K isentropic level range. Though the maximum values of PSCs area are smaller compared to other cold winters such as 2005, the extended period of presence of PSCs during this winter was exceptional, especially in late February-mid-March, in agreement with the cold temperatures during the period. Ozone loss analyses with high resolution Mimosa-Chim chemical transport model simulations show that the loss started by early January, and was about 0.5 ppmv in late January. The loss progressed slowly to 1 ppmv by the end of February, and then intensified by early March. The ozone depletion estimated by the passive method finds a maximum value of about 2-2.3 ppmv by the end of March-early April in the 450-550K range inside the vortex, which coincides with the areas of PSCs and high chlorine activation. This is the largest loss ever estimated with this model for any Arctic winter. It is consistent with the unprecedented chlorine activation that occurred in the winter, as the modeled ClO values show about 1.7 ppbv in early January and about 1 ppbv in March at 450-550K. This is longest period of chlorine activation noted among the Arctic winters. The ozone partial column loss reaches about 115-150 DU in the range 350 - 550 K. These model results for ozone, ozone loss and ClO are in good agreement with those found from Aura Microwave Limb Sounder observations. Since the winter 1996/1997 was also very cold in March - April, a comparison between both winters 2011 and 1997 will be presented, based on temperature, PV, Heat flux data and ozone loss estimations. Similarities and differences in the polar processing and ozone loss during both winters will be discussed using various measurements and model simulations. Copyright 2011. All rights reserved.

Seasonal temperature variation around the mesopause inferred from a VHF meteor radar at King Sejong Station (62S, 59W), Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Yongha; Kim, Jeong-Han; Lee, Changsup; Jee, Gun-Hwa

A VHF meteor radar, installed at King Sejong Station in March, 2007, has been detecting echoes from more than 20,000 meteors per day. Meteor echoes are decayed typically within seconds as meteors spread away by atmospheric diffusion. The diffusion coefficients can thus be obtained from decay times of meteor echo signals, providing with information on the atmospheric temperatures and pressures at meteor altitudes from 70 to 100 km. In this study, we present altitude profiles of 15-min averaged diffusion coefficients in each month, which clearly show a minimum at 80 - 85 km. The minimum appears at higher altitude during austral summer than winter, and seems to be near the lower level of two temperature minimum structure around the mesopause seen by TIMED/SABER data at high latitudes. The higher mesopause level (95-100 km) of the SABER data does not appear in our diffusion profiles probably because it is too close the limit of meaningful diffusion coefficients that can be derived from meteor decay detection. In order to understand temperature variation around the mesopause more directly, we will discuss various methods to extract temperature profiles from the diffusion profiles. We will also present monthly averaged OH and O2 airglow temperatures observed at the same site, and compare them with those derived from the meteor radar observation.

Risk of hospitalization for fire-related burns during extreme cold weather.

PubMed

Ayoub, Aimina; Kosatsky, Tom; Smargiassi, Audrey; Bilodeau-Bertrand, Marianne; Auger, Nathalie

2017-10-01

Environmental factors are important predictors of fires, but no study has examined the association between outdoor temperature and fire-related burn injuries. We sought to investigate the relationship between extremely cold outdoor temperatures and the risk of hospitalization for fire-related burns. We carried out a time-stratified case-crossover study of 2470 patients hospitalized for fire-related burn injuries during cold months between 1989 and 2014 in Quebec, Canada. The main exposure was the minimum outdoor temperature on the day of and the day before the burn. We computed odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) to evaluate the relationship between minimum temperature and fire-related burns, and assessed how associations varied across sex and age. Exposure to extreme cold temperature was associated with a significantly higher risk of hospitalization for fire-related burns. Compared with 0°C, exposure to a minimum temperature of -30°C was associated with an OR of 1.51 (95% CI 1.22-1.87) for hospitalization for fire-related burns. The associations were somewhat stronger for women, youth, and the elderly. Compared with 0°C, a minimum temperature of -30°C was associated with an OR for fire-related burn hospitalization of 1.65 for women (95% CI 1.13-2.40), 1.60 for age < 25 years (95% CI 1.02-2.52), and 1.73 for age ≥ 65 years (95% CI 1.08-2.77). Extremely cold outdoor temperature is a risk factor for fire-related burns. Measures to prevent fires should be implemented prior to the winter season, and enhanced during extreme cold. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effect of temperature on the occurrence and distribution of colorado potato beetle (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) in China.

PubMed

Li, Chao; Liu, Huai; Huang, Fangneng; Cheng, Deng-Fa; Wang, Jin-Jun; Zhang, Yun-Hui; Sun, Jin-Rui; Guo, Wen-Chao

2014-04-01

Colorado potato beetle, Leptinotarsa decemlineata (Say), is the most destructive pest of potato in many countries of the world. It first invaded China from Kazakhstan in 1990s and now is a major pest of potato in many areas of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (Xinjiang). The objective of this study was to determine the effect of temperature on the spread of Colorado potato beetle in China after its invasion. Cold temperature in winter (December) and high temperature in summer (July) were analyzed in accordance with the absence and presence of Colorado potato beetle in Xinjiang. The boundary between the absence and presence of Colorado potato beetle in Xinjiang nearly coincided with the -8°C isotherm of monthly mean minimum temperature in winter. The stress of the low temperature in winter for Colorado potato beetle basically disappeared in the southeastern Hexi Corridor in Gansu Province of China, suggesting that the Hexi Corridor is the best channel to prevent any long-distance invasions of Colorado potato beetle into the Central Plains region. However, in Turpan City in northeastern Xinjiang, the extremely hot weather in the summer prevents the local colonization of Colorado potato beetle. Furthermore, according to our monitoring, high temperature in summer also limited Colorado potato beetle to diffuse eastward through Turpan. Results of this study suggest that it is essential to strengthen inspection and quarantine measures to prevent any artificial transmissions of Colorado potato beetle spreading eastward and thus to ensure the sustainable production of potato and other Solanaceae crops in northwest regions of China.

Monitoring of Freezing Dynamics in Trees: A Simple Phase Shift Causes Complexity1[OPEN

PubMed Central

Charra-Vaskou, Katline

2017-01-01

During winter, trees have to cope with harsh conditions, including extreme freeze-thaw stress. This study focused on ice nucleation and propagation, related water shifts and xylem cavitation, as well as cell damage and was based on in situ monitoring of xylem (thermocouples) and surface temperatures (infrared imaging), ultrasonic emissions, and dendrometer analysis. Field experiments during late winter on Picea abies growing at the alpine timberline revealed three distinct freezing patterns: (1) from the top of the tree toward the base, (2) from thin branches toward the main stem’s top and base, and (3) from the base toward the top. Infrared imaging showed freezing within branches from their base toward distal parts. Such complex freezing causes dynamic and heterogenous patterns in water potential and probably in cavitation. This study highlights the interaction between environmental conditions upon freezing and thawing and demonstrates the enormous complexity of freezing processes in trees. Diameter shrinkage, which indicated water fluxes within the stem, and acoustic emission analysis, which indicated cavitation events near the ice front upon freezing, were both related to minimum temperature and, upon thawing, related to vapor pressure deficit and soil temperature. These complex patterns, emphasizing the common mechanisms between frost and drought stress, shed new light on winter tree physiology. PMID:28242655

Effects of climate change on daily minimum and maximum temperatures and cloudiness in the Shikoku region: a statistical downscaling model approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tatsumi, Kenichi; Oizumi, Tsutao; Yamashiki, Yosuke

2015-04-01

In this study, we present a detailed analysis of the effect of changes in cloudiness (CLD) between a future period (2071-2099) and the base period (1961-1990) on daily minimum temperature (TMIN) and maximum temperature (TMAX) in the same period for the Shikoku region, Japan. This analysis was performed using climate data obtained with the use of the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM). We calibrated the SDSM using the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset for the SDSM input and daily time series of temperature and CLD from 10 surface data points (SDP) in Shikoku. Subsequently, we validated the SDSM outputs, specifically, TMIN, TMAX, and CLD, obtained with the use of the NCEP reanalysis dataset and general circulation model (GCM) data against the SDP. The GCM data used in the validation procedure were those from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3) for the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios and from the third generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) for the SRES A2 and A1B scenarios. Finally, the validated SDSM was run to study the effect of future changes in CLD on TMIN and TMAX. Our analysis showed that (1) the negative linear fit between changes in TMAX and those in CLD was statistically significant in winter while the relationship between the two changes was not evident in summer, (2) the dependency of future changes in TMAX and TMIN on future changes in CLD were more evident in winter than in other seasons with the present SDSM, (3) the diurnal temperature range (DTR) decreased in the southern part of Shikoku in summer in all the SDSM projections while DTR increased in the northern part of Shikoku in the same season in these projections, (4) the dependencies of changes in DTR on changes in CLD were unclear in summer and winter. Results of the SDSM simulations performed for climate change scenarios such as those from this study contribute to local-scale agricultural and hydrological simulations and development of agricultural and hydrological models.

Association between temperature and death in residential populations in Shanghai

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsia, L. B.; Lu, J. K.

1988-03-01

The study is focused on patterns of daily deaths in Shanghai for the period from 1 May 1979 to 30 April 1980. From May to September the deaths in all age groups are lower, but increase gradually from October and reach to a peak in February. This confirms results found in other countries, namely the death rate is increased in winter. The peak for the population aged over 70 is the highest of the three different age groups. Correlation analyses were carried out on three temperature parameters (daily minimum, maximum and mean temperatures) and six categories of death (heart disease, coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, cancer, respiratory disease and total deaths). The results reveal that the average daily temperature is very significant for the six categories of death. There are three correlations: straight line relationship, parabolic relationship and exponential relationship. These different types arise from the different morbidity rates. Death from the different disease is also increased during days when the daily maximum temperature is over 35° C or the daily minimum temperature is below 0°C. This shows, in general, that days of extreme temperature lead to an increase in the death rate.

Meteorological variables affect fertility rate after intrauterine artificial insemination in sheep in a seasonal-dependent manner: a 7-year study.

PubMed

Palacios, C; Abecia, J A

2015-05-01

A total number of 48,088 artificial inseminations (AIs) have been controlled during seven consecutive years in 79 dairy sheep Spanish farms (41° N). Mean, maximum and minimum ambient temperatures (Ts), temperature amplitude (TA), mean relative humidity (RH), mean solar radiation (SR) and total rainfall of each insemination day and 15 days later were recorded. Temperature-humidity index (THI) and effective temperature (ET) have been calculated. A binary logistic regression model to estimate the risk of not getting pregnant compared to getting pregnant, through the odds ratio (OR), was performed. Successful winter inseminations were carried out under higher SR (P < 0.01) and summer inseminations under lower SR values (P < 0.05). Successful inseminations during the summer were performed under significantly lower maximum T (P < 0.01), while winter inseminations resulted in pregnancy when they were carried out under higher maximum (P < 0.05) and minimum Ts (P < 0.01). Up to five meteorological variables presented OR >1 (maximum T, ET and rainfall on AI day, and ET and rainfall on day 15), and two variables presented OR <1 (SR on AI day and maximum T on day 15). However, the effect of meteorological factors affected fertility in opposite ways, so T becomes a protective or risk factor on fertility depending on season. In conclusion, the percentage of pregnancy after AI in sheep is significantly affected by meteorological variables in a seasonal-dependent manner, so the parameters such as temperature reverse their effects in the hot or cold seasons. A forecast of the meteorological conditions could be a useful tool when AI dates are being scheduled.

Meteorological variables affect fertility rate after intrauterine artificial insemination in sheep in a seasonal-dependent manner: a 7-year study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palacios, C.; Abecia, J. A.

2015-05-01

A total number of 48,088 artificial inseminations (AIs) have been controlled during seven consecutive years in 79 dairy sheep Spanish farms (41° N). Mean, maximum and minimum ambient temperatures ( Ts), temperature amplitude (TA), mean relative humidity (RH), mean solar radiation (SR) and total rainfall of each insemination day and 15 days later were recorded. Temperature-humidity index (THI) and effective temperature (ET) have been calculated. A binary logistic regression model to estimate the risk of not getting pregnant compared to getting pregnant, through the odds ratio (OR), was performed. Successful winter inseminations were carried out under higher SR ( P < 0.01) and summer inseminations under lower SR values ( P < 0.05). Successful inseminations during the summer were performed under significantly lower maximum T ( P < 0.01), while winter inseminations resulted in pregnancy when they were carried out under higher maximum ( P < 0.05) and minimum Ts ( P < 0.01). Up to five meteorological variables presented OR >1 (maximum T, ET and rainfall on AI day, and ET and rainfall on day 15), and two variables presented OR <1 (SR on AI day and maximum T on day 15). However, the effect of meteorological factors affected fertility in opposite ways, so T becomes a protective or risk factor on fertility depending on season. In conclusion, the percentage of pregnancy after AI in sheep is significantly affected by meteorological variables in a seasonal-dependent manner, so the parameters such as temperature reverse their effects in the hot or cold seasons. A forecast of the meteorological conditions could be a useful tool when AI dates are being scheduled.

Analysis of the relationship between the monthly temperatures and weather types in Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peña Angulo, Dhais; Trigo, Ricardo; Nicola, Cortesi; José Carlos, González-Hidalgo

2016-04-01

In this study, the relationship between the atmospheric circulation and weather types and the monthly average maximum and minimum temperatures in the Iberian Peninsula is modeled (period 1950-2010). The temperature data used were obtained from a high spatial resolution (10km x 10km) dataset (MOTEDAS dataset, Gonzalez-Hidalgo et al., 2015a). In addition, a dataset of Portuguese temperatures was used (obtained from the Portuguese Institute of Sea and Atmosphere). The weather type classification used was the one developed by Jenkinson and Collison, which was adapted for the Iberian Peninsula by Trigo and DaCamara (2000), using Sea Level Pressure data from NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis dataset (period 1951-2010). The analysis of the behaviour of monthly temperatures based on the weather types was carried out using a stepwise regression procedure of type forward to estimate temperatures in each cell of the considered grid, for each month, and for both maximum and minimum monthly average temperatures. The model selects the weather types that best estimate the temperatures. From the validation model it was obtained the error distribution in the time (months) and space (Iberian Peninsula). The results show that best estimations are obtained for minimum temperatures, during the winter months and in coastal areas. González-Hidalgo J.C., Peña-Angulo D., Brunetti M., Cortesi, C. (2015a): MOTEDAS: a new monthly temperature database for mainland Spain and the trend in temperature (1951-2010). International Journal of Climatology 31, 715-731. DOI: 10.1002/joc.4298

Persistency in monthly mean temperatures in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasol, Dubravka; Ólafsson, Haraldur

2016-04-01

Time series from a number of weather stations in Europe have been studied in order to assess the persistency of montly mean temperatures. In most regions, the correlation between the mean temperatures of two months next to each other in time has maxima in the summer and in the winter, while there are minima in the sping and the autumn. An exception from this is in the oceanic warm climate in the southwest, where the spring minimum is missing. A plausible explanation for the positive correlation in the winter may be related to snow on the ground. The snow is associated with cold spells and increases the albedo, contributing to extension of the low temperatures. The summertime correlation may be related to the water content of the soil. A cold and rainy period results in wet soil and subsequently, relatively large part of the energy of the incoming solar radiation is consumed by evaporation, rather than sensible heating. In the spring, there is generally no snow on the ground and in the autumn, the air temperature is not as sensitive to the water content of the soil as in the summer. This may explain the low correlation in spring and autumn.

Effect of seasonality, weather and holidays on the incidence of proximal hip fracture.

PubMed

Koren, Lior; Barak, Adi; Norman, Doron; Sachs, Ofer; Peled, Eli

2014-05-01

Proximal hip fractures in the elderly are common and place a heavy burden on health resources. Researching the timing of these fractures could contribute to diverting resources towards peaks in incidence and investing in prevention at certain times. To examine the effect of seasonality, weather and Jewish holidays on hip fracture incidence in older adults. The study population comprised 2050 patients aged 65 years or more who sustained a proximal hip fracture. The computerized files of the patients were reviewed for trends in incidence by season, precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures, day of the week, and certain Jewish festivals. Hip fractures were more likely to occur in the winter than in the summer (P < 0.0001). Factors that significantly correlated with hip fracture were the maximum daily temperature (r = -0.746, P = 0.005) followed by the minimum daily temperature (r = -0.740, P = 0.006) and precipitation (r = 0.329, P = 0.02). There were fewer fractures on Saturdays (the Sabbath) as compared to other days of the week (P = 0.045). Researching the incidence on Jewish holidays, we found an elevated incidence on Passover (P < 0.0001) and a reduced incidence on the Day of Atonement (Yom Kippui) (P = 0.013). In older people there is an elevated incidence of proximal hip fractures during the winter and on the Jewish festivals. On weekends and on the Day of Atonement the incidence of proximal hip fractures was reduced.

Features of seasonal temperature variations in peat soils of oligotrophic bogs in south taiga of Western Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiselev, M. V.; Dyukarev, E. A.; Voropay, N. N.

2018-03-01

The work presents the results of the study of the peculiarities of the temperature regime in the five basic ecosystems of oligotrophic bogs in the south taiga zone of Western Siberia in 2011-2016. The soil temperature regime was studied using the atmospheric-soil measuring complex at different depths from surface down to 240 cm. All sites were divided into two groups according to the bog water level: flooded sites (hollow and open fen) and drained sites (ridge, tall and low ryam). The waterlogged sites are better warmed in the summer period and slowly freeze in the winter period. The analysis of the annual cycle of temperature showed that the maximum surface temperature is in July. The minimum temperature on the surface is observed in February or January. The greatest temperature gradient was recorded in the upper 2 cm layer. The gradient at the open fen was -2 °C/cm in February and 1.1 °C/cm in October. The peak of formation of the seasonally frozen layer occurs at the end of autumn or in the beginning of winter. The degradation of the seasonally frozen layer was observed both from top and bottom, but the degradation rate from the top is faster.

White-tailed deer migration and its role in wolf predation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoskinson, R.L.; Mech, L.D.

1976-01-01

Seventeen white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) were radio-tagged in winter yards and tracked for up to 17 months each (881 locations) from January 1973 through August 1974 in the central Superior National Forest of NE Minnesota following a drastic decline in deer numbers. Ten vyolves (Canis lupus) from 7 packs in the same area were radiotracked before and/or during the same period (703 locations). Deer had winter ranges averaging 26.4 ha. Spring migration took place from 26 March to 23 April and was related to loss of snow cover. Deer generally migrated ENE in straight-line distances of 10.0 to 38.0 km to summer ranges. Two fawns did not migrate. Arrival on summer ranges was between 19 April and 18 May, and summer ranges varied from 48.1 to 410.4 ha. Migration back to the same winter yards took place in early December, coincident with snow accumulation and low temperatures. Social grouping appeared strongest during migration and winter yarding. Survival of the radio-tagged deer was studied through 1 May 1975. Four deer were killed by wolves, one was poached, and one drowned. Mean age of the captured deer was 5.4 years and estimated minimum survival after capture was 2.6 years, giving an estimated total minimum survival of 8.0 years. This unusually high survival rate appeared to be related to the fact that both winter and summer ranges of these deer were situated along wolf-pack territory edges rather than in centers. In addition, most summer ranges of the radio-tagged deer were along major waterways where the deer could escape wolves.

Body temperature, thermoregulatory behaviour and pelt characteristics of three colour morphs of springbok (Antidorcas marsupialis).

PubMed

Hetem, Robyn S; de Witt, Brenda A; Fick, Linda G; Fuller, Andrea; Kerley, Graham I H; Meyer, Leith C R; Mitchell, Duncan; Maloney, Shane K

2009-03-01

Using intra-abdominal miniature data loggers, we measured core body temperature in female springbok (Antidorcas marsupialis) of three colour morphs (black, normal and white), free-living in the Karoo, South Africa, for one year. During winter, white springbok displayed lower daily minimum body temperatures (37.4+/-0.5 degrees C), than both black (38.1+/-0.3 degrees C) and normal (38.0+/-0.6 degrees C) springbok. During spring, black springbok displayed higher daily maximum body temperatures (40.7+/-0.1 degrees C) than both white (40.2+/-0.2 degrees C) and normal (40.2+/-0.2 degrees C) springbok. These high maximum body temperatures were associated with larger daily amplitudes of nychthemeral rhythm of body temperature (2.0+/-0.2 degrees C), than that of white (1.6+/-0.1 degrees C) and normal (1.7+/-0.2 degrees C) springbok. Biophysical properties of sample springbok pelts were consistent with these patterns, as the black springbok pelt showed lower reflectance in the visible spectral range, and higher heat load from simulated solar radiation, than did the pelts of the other two springbok. Black springbok had lower diurnal activity in winter, consistent with them having to forage less because their metabolic cost of homeothermy was lower, but were disadvantaged in hot periods. White springbok, by contrast, were more protected from solar heat load, but potentially less able to meet the energy cost of homeothermy in winter. Thus energy considerations may underlie the rarity of the springbok colour morphs.

Impact assessment of climate change on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and mustard (Brassica spp.) production and its adaptation strategies in different districts of Gujarat, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandey, V.; Patel, H. R.; Yadav, S. B.; Patil, D. D.

2015-12-01

Gujarat is the western-most state of India with a long (1600 km) sea coast on the Arabian Sea. Average annual rainfall ranges from as high as 1900 mm in the sub-humid southeast to as low as 250 mm in the arid north. There are three distinct crop seasons- rainy (June to September), winter (Oct.-Nov. through Feb.-March) and summer (Feb-March through May-June). Wheat and mustard are grown during winter seasons. The past climatic records suggested increasing trends in rainfall( 2 to 5 mm per year), maximum (0.03 to 0.05 0C per year) and minimum temperatures (0.02 to 0.05 0C per year) at most of places in Gujarat. But the minimum temperature is fould to be increasing significantly at all the locations. This affects the winter season crops viz. wheat and mustard adversely. Simulation results with DSSAT CERES-wheat model revealed that with increase in temperature by 2 0C in different months (November to February) the decrease in wheat yield is observed between 7 to 29 per cent. The impact of increase in maximum temperature during early (November) and late (February) is less (<12.5 %) than that during active vegetative and reproductive period (December and January; >24.8 %). The climate change projections during 2071-2100 using PRECIS output suggested that there would be increase in maximum temperature by 3.2 to 5.2 0C in different districts of Gujarat over baseline period of 1961-1990 while minimum temperature is project to increase by 2.8 to 5.8 0C. Rainfall is also projected to increase by 28 to 70 per cent in different districts. The impact of climate change on wheat would be reduction in its duration by 14-20 days and the grain yield would be reduced by 20-55 per cent in different districts. In case of mustard crops the duration of crop would be reduced by 11 to 16 days and seed yield would be reduced by 32-50 per cent. In order to mitigate the ill effect of climate change, various adaptation strategies vis change in dates of sowing, change in variety, additional irrigation and fertilizer applications were simulated. Shifting of sowing dates of wheat by 15 days from its normal sowing (Nov 15), 5 to 10 per cent higher yield could be obtained. Similarly commonly grown cv. GW 496 is to be replaced by GW 322 to obtain 4-11 per cent higher yield. Two additional irrigation would increase the wheat yield by 5-15 per cent in different districts of Gujarat.

The effect of length and starting year on trend analyses of temperatures in Spanish mainland (1951-2010). Seasonal analysis: Winter (II)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salinas Solé, Celia; Peña Angulo, Dhais; Gonzalez Hidalgo, Jose Carlos; Brunetti, Michele

2017-04-01

In this poster we applied the moving window approach (see Poster I of this collection) to analyze trends of winter and its corresponding months (December, January, February) temperature mean values of maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) in Spanish mainland to detect the effects of length period and starting year. Monthly series belong to Monthly Temperature dataset of Spanish mainland (MOTEDAS). Database contains in its grid format of 5236 pixels of monthly series (10x10 km). The threshold used in spatial analyses considers 20% of land under significant trend (p<0.05). The most striking results are as follow: • Seasonal trend analyses of Tmax shows that global trend 1951-2010 was positive and significant mostly in central-western areas; from 1970 to 2010 there is less than 20% of land with significant trend. In the case of Tmin no relevant significant period is detected. • Monthly Tmax analyses show that December significant trend changed from positive (>20%) in between 1955-2010 until 1962-2010, to negative from 1976-2010. Meanwhile January does not show relevant period with significant trend; finally Tmax in February shows different periods with positive significant trend (>20% of land) 1951-2010 to 1954-2010 and 1962-2010 to 1968-2010. No significant trend is detected after this data. • Monthly Tmin trend analyses show that except exceptional period, no months present any significant trend. As conclusions, we have detected that for winter and winter-months, Tmax trends are not significant from 1970 across Spanish mainland. In the case of Tmin we conclude that no significant trend have been occurred in any temporal windows analyzed. Results differ from what traditionally has been assumed that the increase of the average annual temperature was due to the increase of trends in the winter season. And these analyses also show that seasonal trend values could hide monthly behavior. So extreme caution should be taken into account when seasonal values are offered.

[Analysis on concentration variety characteristics of atmospheric ozone under the boundary layer in Beijing].

PubMed

Zong, Xue-Mei; Wang, Geng-Chen; Chen, Hong-Bin; Wang, Pu-Cai; Xuan, Yue-Jian

2007-11-01

Based on the atmospheric ozone sounding data, the average monthly and seasonal variety principles of atmospheric ozone concentration during six years are analyzed under the boundary layer in Beijing. The results show that the monthly variation of atmospheric ozone are obvious that the minimum values appear in January from less than 10 x 10(-9) on ground to less than 50 x 10(-9) on upper layer (2 km), but the maximum values appear in June from 85 x 10(-9) on ground to more than 90 x 10(-9) on upper layer. The seasonal variation is also clear that the least atmospheric ozone concentration is in winter and the most is in summer, but variety from ground to upper layer is largest in winter and least in summer. According to the type of outline, the outline of ozone concentration is composite of three types which are winter type, summer type and spring-autumn type. The monthly ozone concentration in different heights is quite different. After analyzing the relationship between ozone concentration and meteorological factors, such as temperature and humidity, we find ozone concentration on ground is linear with temperature and the correlation coefficient is more than 85 percent.

Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum.

PubMed

Ineson, Sarah; Maycock, Amanda C; Gray, Lesley J; Scaife, Adam A; Dunstone, Nick J; Harder, Jerald W; Knight, Jeff R; Lockwood, Mike; Manners, James C; Wood, Richard A

2015-06-23

Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations.

Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and Solar Cycle Influences over the Winter Arctic Simulated by the WACCM4 Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, K. F.; Limpasuvan, T. L.; Limpasuvan, V.; Tung, K. K.; Yung, Y. L.

2017-12-01

Observations show that the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the 11-year solar cycle perturb the polar vortex via planetary wave convergence at high latitudes, a mechanism first proposed by Holton and Tan in 1980. Their perturbations lead to increases of stratospheric sudden warming events, and hence observable increases in temperature and ozone abundance in the polar vortex, during the easterly phase of QBO and the solar maximum. Here we simulate the changes in the polar atmosphere using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model 4 (WACCM4) with the prescribed QBO and 11-year solar cycle forcing. The simulation is diagnosed in four groups: westerly QBO phase and solar minimum, westerly QBO phase and solar maximum, easterly QBO phase and solar minimum, and easterly QBO phase and solar maximum. The simulated changes in temperature and ozone are compared with satellite observations.

Winter metabolic depression does not change arterial baroreflex control of heart rate in the tegu lizard Salvator merianae.

PubMed

Zena, Lucas A; Dantonio, Valter; Gargaglioni, Luciane H; Andrade, Denis V; Abe, Augusto S; Bícego, Kênia C

2016-03-01

Baroreflex regulation of blood pressure is important for maintaining appropriate tissue perfusion. Although temperature affects heart rate (fH) reflex regulation in some reptiles and toads, no data are available on the influence of temperature-independent metabolic states on baroreflex. The South American tegu lizard Salvator merianae exhibits a clear seasonal cycle of activity decreasing fH along with winter metabolic downregulation, independent of body temperature. Through pharmacological interventions (phenylephrine and sodium nitroprusside), the baroreflex control of fH was studied at ∼ 25 °C in spring-summer- and winter-acclimated tegus. In winter lizards, resting and minimum fH were lower than in spring-summer animals (respectively, 13.3 ± 0.82 versus 10.3 ± 0.81 and 11.2 ± 0.65 versus 7.97 ± 0.88 beats min(-1)), while no acclimation differences occurred in resting blood pressure (5.14 ± 0.38 versus 5.06 ± 0.56 kPa), baroreflex gain (94.3 ± 10.7 versus 138.7 ± 30.3% kPa(-1)) or rate-pressure product (an index of myocardial activity). Vagal tone exceeded the sympathetic tone of fH, especially in the winter group. Therefore, despite the lower fH, winter acclimation does not diminish the fH baroreflex responses or rate-pressure product, possibly because of increased stroke volume that may arise because of heart hypertrophy. Independent of acclimation, fH responded more to hypotension than to hypertension. This should imply that tegus, which have no pressure separation within the single heart ventricle, must have other protection mechanisms against pulmonary hypertension or oedema, presumably through lymphatic drainage and/or vagal vasoconstriction of pulmonary artery. Such a predominant fH reflex response to hypotension, previously observed in anurans, crocodilians and mammals, may be a common feature of tetrapods. © 2016. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Freezing avoidance by supercooling in Olea europaea cultivars: the role of apoplastic water, solute content and cell wall rigidity.

PubMed

Arias, Nadia S; Bucci, Sandra J; Scholz, Fabian G; Goldstein, Guillermo

2015-10-01

Plants can avoid freezing damage by preventing extracellular ice formation below the equilibrium freezing temperature (supercooling). We used Olea europaea cultivars to assess which traits contribute to avoid ice nucleation at sub-zero temperatures. Seasonal leaf water relations, non-structural carbohydrates, nitrogen and tissue damage and ice nucleation temperatures in different plant parts were determined in five cultivars growing in the Patagonian cold desert. Ice seeding in roots occurred at higher temperatures than in stems and leaves. Leaves of cold acclimated cultivars supercooled down to -13 °C, substantially lower than the minimum air temperatures observed in the study site. During winter, leaf ice nucleation and leaf freezing damage (LT50 ) occurred at similar temperatures, typical of plant tissues that supercool. Higher leaf density and cell wall rigidity were observed during winter, consistent with a substantial acclimation to sub-zero temperatures. Larger supercooling capacity and lower LT50 were observed in cold-acclimated cultivars with higher osmotically active solute content, higher tissue elastic adjustments and lower apoplastic water. Irreversible leaf damage was only observed in laboratory experiments at very low temperatures, but not in the field. A comparative analysis of closely related plants avoids phylogenetic independence bias in a comparative study of adaptations to survive low temperatures. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effects of fish farming on phytoplankton community under the thermal stress caused by a power plant in a eutrophic, semi-enclosed bay: induce toxic dinoflagellate (Prorocentrum minimum) blooms in cold seasons.

PubMed

Jiang, Zhibing; Liao, Yibo; Liu, Jingjing; Shou, Lu; Chen, Quanzhen; Yan, Xiaojun; Zhu, Genhai; Zeng, Jiangning

2013-11-15

Six cruises were conducted in a fish farm adjacent to the Ninghai Power Plant in Xiangshan Bay, East China Sea. Fish farming significantly increased NH4(+), DIP, and TOC concentrations, while it significantly decreased the DO level. These increase/decrease trends were more pronounced in warmer seasons. Although culture practices did not significantly increase phytoplankton density, it drastically enhanced dinoflagellate abundance and domination. Significant differences in species diversity and community composition between the cages and the control area were also observed. Temperature elevation caused by thermal discharge associated with eutrophication resulted in a dominant species shift from diatoms alone to dinoflagellates and diatoms. This is the first report of stress-induced toxic dinoflagellate (Prorocentrum minimum) blooms in winter and the winter-spring transition in this bay. Therefore, the effects of aquaculture activity and power plant construction in such a eutrophic, semi-enclosed bay require further attention. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Air pollution and emergency room visits for asthma in Santa Clara County, California.

PubMed Central

Lipsett, M; Hurley, S; Ostro, B

1997-01-01

During the winters of 1986-1987 through 1991-1992, rainfall throughout much of Northern California was subnormal, resulting in intermittent accumulation of air pollution, much of which was attributable to residential wood combustion (RWC). This investigation examined whether there was a relationship between ambient air pollution in Santa Clara County, California and emergency room visits for asthma during the winters of 1988-1989 through 1991-1992. Emergency room (ER) records from three acute-care hospitals were abstracted to compile daily visits for asthma and a control diagnosis (gastroenteritis) for 3-month periods during each winter. Air monitoring data included daily coefficient of haze (COH) and every-other-day particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter equal to or less than 10 microns (PM10, 24-hr average), as well as hourly nitrogen dioxide and ozone concentrations. Daily COH measurements were used to predict values for missing days of PM10 to develop a complete PM10 time series. Daily data were also obtained for temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity. In time-series analyses using Poisson regression, consistent relationships were found between ER visits for asthma and PM10. Same-day nitrogen dioxide concentrations were also associated with asthma ER visits, while ozone was not. Because there was a significant interaction between PM10 and minimum temperature in this data set, estimates of relative risks (RRs) for PM10-associated asthma ER visits were temperature-dependent. A 60 micrograms/m3 change in PM10 (2-day lag) corresponded to RRs of 1.43 (95% CI = 1.18-1.69) at 20 degrees F, representing the low end of the temperature distribution, 1.27 (95% CI = 1.13-1.42) at 30 degrees F, and 1.11 (95% CI = 1.03-1.19) at 41 degrees F, the mean of the observed minimum temperature. ER visits for gastroenteritis were not significantly associated with any pollutant variable. Several sensitivity analyses, including the use of robust regressions and of nonparametric methods for fitting time trends and temperature effects in the data, supported these findings. These results demonstrate an association between ambient wintertime PM10 and exacerbations of asthma in an area where one of the principal sources of PM10 is RWC. Images Figure 1. PMID:9105797

Demographics of an ornate box turtle population experiencing minimal human-induced disturbances

USGS Publications Warehouse

Converse, S.J.; Iverson, J.B.; Savidge, J.A.

2005-01-01

Human-induced disturbances may threaten the viability of many turtle populations, including populations of North American box turtles. Evaluation of the potential impacts of these disturbances can be aided by long-term studies of populations subject to minimal human activity. In such a population of ornate box turtles (Terrapene ornata ornata) in western Nebraska, we examined survival rates and population growth rates from 1981-2000 based on mark-recapture data. The average annual apparent survival rate of adult males was 0.883 (SE = 0.021) and of adult females was 0.932 (SE = 0.014). Minimum winter temperature was the best of five climate variables as a predictor of adult survival. Survival rates were highest in years with low minimum winter temperatures, suggesting that global warming may result in declining survival. We estimated an average adult population growth rate (????) of 1.006 (SE = 0.065), with an estimated temporal process variance (????2) of 0.029 (95% CI = 0.005-0.176). Stochastic simulations suggest that this mean and temporal process variance would result in a 58% probability of a population decrease over a 20-year period. This research provides evidence that, unless unknown density-dependent mechanisms are operating in the adult age class, significant human disturbances, such as commercial harvest or turtle mortality on roads, represent a potential risk to box turtle populations. ?? 2005 by the Ecological Society of America.

A 500 year seasonally resolved δ18O and δ13C, layer thickness and calcite fabric record from a speleothem deposited in equilibrium of the Han-sur-Lesse cave, Belgium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Rampelbergh, M.; Verheyden, S.; Allan, M.; Quinif, Y.; Cheng, H.; Edwards, L.; Keppens, E.; Claeys, P.

2014-10-01

Speleothem δ18O and δ13C signals have already proven to enable climate reconstructions at high resolution. However, seasonally resolved speleothem records are still scarce and often difficult to interpret in terms of climate due to the multitude of factors that can affect the proxy signals. In this paper, a fast growing (up to 2 mm yr-1) seasonally laminated speleothem from the Han-sur-Lesse cave (Belgium) is analyzed for its δ18O and δ13C values, layer thickness and changes in calcite fabric. The studied part of the speleothem covers the most recent 500 years as indicated by layer counting and confirmed by 20 U/Th-ages. Epikarst recharge occurs mainly in winter and lesser during spring and fall. a good correlation can be established between lower winter temperatures and lower winter precipitation (DJF) based on the measured data by the Belgian meteorological institute since 1833 indicating that a dry winter is also a cold winter. Colder and dryer winters cause lower winter recharge and generally drier conditions in the cave. Lower winter recharge decreases the amount of isotopically light (δ18O) winter precipitation added to the epikarst in comparison to the heavier spring and fall waters, which leads to a net increase in δ18O value of the water in the epikarst. Increased δ18O values in the Proserpine are consequently interpreted to reflect colder and dryer winters. Higher δ13C signals are interpreted to reflect increased prior calcite precipitation (PCP) due to colder and dryer winters, when recharge is lower. Thinner layers and darker calcite relate to slower growth and occur when drip rates are low and when the drip water calcium ion concentration is low due to increased PCP, both caused by lower recharge during periods with colder and dryer winters. Exceptionally cold and dry winters cause the drip discharge to decrease under a certain threshold value inducing anomalies in the measured proxy records. Such anomalies occur from 1565 to 1610, from 1770 to 1800, from 1810 to 1860 and from 1880 to 1895 and correspond with exceptionally cold periods in proxy-based, historical and instrumental records and may relate to different factors such as negative winter NAO phases, lower solar irradiance and/or volcanic eruptions. When the discharge threshold is not reached, lower amplitude variations are observed such as between 1479 and 1565 and between 1730 and 1770 with two periods of relatively warmer and wetter winters. Between 1610 and 1730 a period of relatively cooler and dryer winters occurs and may relate to a decrease in solar irradiance during the Maunder Minimum (1640-1714). Seasonal δ18O variations indicate a 2.5 °C seasonality in cave air temperature during the two periods with warmer and wetter winters (1479-1565 and 1730-1770), and correspond to the cave air temperature seasonality observed today. a smaller 1.5 °C seasonality in cave air temperature occurs during the interval with colder and wetter winters between 1610 and 1730 and suggests colder summers. The δ13C seasonal changes suggest that the seasonality in discharge was lower than the one observed today with a short interval of increased seasonality between 1600 and 1660 reflecting stronger summer PCP-effects due to decreased winter recharge.

Experimental temperature analysis of simple & hybrid earth air tunnel heat exchanger in series connection at Bikaner Rajasthan India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakhar, O. P.; Sharma, Chandra Shekhar; Kukana, Rajendra

2018-05-01

The Earth Air Tunnel Heat Exchanger System is a passive air-conditioning system which has no side effect on earth climate and produces better cooling effect and heating effect comfortable to human body. It produces heating effect in winter and cooling effect in summer with the minimum power consumption of energy as compare to other air-conditioning devices. In this research paper Temperature Analysis was done on the two systems of Earth Air Tunnel Heat Exchanger experimentally for summer cooling purpose. Both the system was installed at Mechanical Engineering Department Government Engineering College Bikaner Rajasthan India. Experimental results concludes that the Average Air Temperature Difference was found as 11.00° C and 16.27° C for the Simple and Hybrid Earth Air Tunnel Heat Exchanger in Series Connection System respectively. The Maximum Air Temperature Difference was found as 18.10° C and 23.70° C for the Simple and Hybrid Earth Air Tunnel Heat Exchanger in Series Connection System respectively. The Minimum Air Temperature Difference was found as 5.20° C and 11.70° C for the Simple and Hybrid Earth Air Tunnel Heat Exchanger in Series Connection System respectively.

Climate variability in Andalusia (southern Spain) during the period 1701-1850 AD from documentary sources: evaluation and comparison with climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigo, F. S.; Gómez-Navarro, J. J.; Montávez Gómez, J. P.

2011-07-01

In this work, a reconstruction of climatic conditions in Andalusia (southern Iberia Peninsula) during the period 1701-1850, as well as an evaluation of its associated uncertainties, is presented. This period is interesting because it is characterized by a minimum in the solar irradiance (Dalton Minimum, around 1800), as well as intense volcanic activity (for instance, the eruption of the Tambora in 1815), when the increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations were of minor importance. The reconstruction is based on the analysis of a wide variety of documentary data. The reconstruction methodology is based on accounting the number of extreme events in past, and inferring mean value and standard deviation using the assumption of normal distribution for the seasonal means of climate variables. This reconstruction methodology is tested within the pseudoreality of a high-resolution paleoclimate simulation performed with the regional climate model MM5 coupled to the global model ECHO-G. Results show that the reconstructions are influenced by the reference period chosen and the threshold values used to define extreme values. This creates uncertainties which are assesed within the context of the climate simulation. An ensemble of reconstructions was obtained using two different reference periods and two pairs of percentiles as threshold values. Results correspond to winter temperature, and winter, spring, and autumn rainfall, and they are compared with simulations of the climate model for the considered period. The comparison of the distribution functions corresponding to 1790-1820 and 1960-1990 periods indicates that during the Dalton Minimum the frequency of dry and warm (wet and cold) winters was lesser (higher) than during the reference period. In spring and autumn it was detected an increase (decrease) in the frequency of wet (dry) seasons. Future research challenges are outlined.

Response of winter and spring wheat grain yields to meteorological variation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feyerherm, A. M.; Kanemasu, E. T.; Paulsen, G. M.

1977-01-01

Mathematical models which quantify the relation of wheat yield to selected weather-related variables are presented. Other sources of variation (amount of applied nitrogen, improved varieties, cultural practices) have been incorporated in the models to explain yield variation both singly and in combination with weather-related variables. Separate models were developed for fall-planted (winter) and spring-planted (spring) wheats. Meteorological variation is observed, basically, by daily measurements of minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation, and tabled values of solar radiation at the edge of the atmosphere and daylength. Two different soil moisture budgets are suggested to compute simulated values of evapotranspiration; one uses the above-mentioned inputs, the other uses the measured temperatures and precipitation but replaces the tabled values (solar radiation and daylength) by measured solar radiation and satellite-derived multispectral scanner data to estimate leaf area index. Weather-related variables are defined by phenological stages, rather than calendar periods, to make the models more universally applicable.

A remarkable climate warming hiatus over Northeast China since 1998

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Xiubao; Ren, Guoyu; Ren, Yuyu; Fang, Yihe; Liu, Yulian; Xue, Xiaoying; Zhang, Panfeng

2017-07-01

Characteristics and causes of global warming hiatus (GWH) phenomenon have received much attention in recent years. Monthly mean data of land surface air maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), and mean temperature (Tmean) of 118 national stations since 1951 in Northeast China are used in this paper to analyze the changes of land surface air temperature in recent 64 years with an emphasis on the GWH period. The results show that (1) from 1951 to 2014, the warming trends of Tmax, Tmin, and Tmean are 0.20, 0.42, and 0.34 °C/decade respectively for the whole area, with the warming rate of Tmin about two times of Tmax, and the upward trend of Tmean obviously higher than mainland China and global averages; (2) in the period 1998-2014, the annual mean temperature consistently exhibits a cooling phenomenon in Northeast China, and the trends of Tmax, Tmin, and Tmean are -0.36, -0.14, and -0.28 °C/decade respectively; (3) in the GWH period, seasonal mean cooling mainly occurs in northern winter (DJF) and spring (MAM), but northern summer (JJA) and autumn (SON) still experience a warming, implying that the annual mean temperature decrease is controlled by the remarkable cooling of winter and spring; (4) compared to the global and mainland China averages, the hiatus phenomenon is more evident in Northeast China, and the cooling trends are more obvious in the cold season; (5) the Northeast China cooling trend occurs under the circulation background of the negative phase Arctic Oscillation (AO), and it is also closely related to strengthening of the Siberia High (SH) and the East Asian Trough (EAT), and the stronger East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) over the GWH period.

Progress and prospects of climate change impacts on hydrology in the arid region of northwest China.

PubMed

Chen, Yaning; Li, Zhi; Fan, Yuting; Wang, Huaijun; Deng, Haijun

2015-05-01

The arid region of Northwest China, located in the central Asia, responds sensitively to global climate change. Based on the newest research results, this paper analyzes the impacts of climate change on hydrology and the water cycle in the arid region of Northwest China. The analysis results show that: (1) In the northwest arid region, temperature and precipitation experienced "sharply" increasing in the past 50 years. The precipitation trend changed in 1987, and since then has been in a state of high volatility, during the 21st century, the increasing rate of precipitation was diminished. Temperature experienced a "sharply" increase in 1997; however, this sharp increasing trend has turned to an apparent hiatus since the 21st century. The dramatic rise in winter temperatures in the northwest arid region is an important reason for the rise in the average annual temperature, and substantial increases in extreme winter minimum temperature play an important role in the rising average winter temperature; (2) There was a significant turning point in the change of pan evaporation in the northwest arid area in 1993, i.e., in which a significant decline reversed to a significant upward trend. In the 21st century, the negative effects of global warming and increasing levels of evaporation on the ecology of the northwest arid region have been highlighted; (3) Glacier change has a significant impact on hydrology in the northwest arid area, and glacier inflection points have appeared in some rivers. The melting water supply of the Tarim River Basin possesses a large portion of water supplies (about 50%). In the future, the amount of surface water will probably remain at a high state of fluctuation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling the effects of climate on date palm scale ( Parlatoria blanchardi) population dynamics during different phenological stages of life history under hot arid conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Idder-Ighili, Hakima; Idder, Mohamed Azzedine; Doumandji-Mitiche, Bahia; Chenchouni, Haroun

2015-10-01

The date palm scale (DPS) Parlatoria blanchardi is a serious pest due to the damage it inflicts on its host tree ( Phoenix dactylifera). To develop an effective control against DPS in arid regions, it is essential to know its bio-ecology including population dynamics and climatic factors influencing the duration and timing of life history and also the densities of different phenological stages (crawlers, first and second instars nymphs, adult males, and adult females). Monitoring of biological cycle and population dynamics of the pest were achieved through weekly counts of DPS densities on leaflets sampled at different position of date palm trees in an oasis of Ouargla region (Algerian Sahara Desert). Within this hyper-arid region, DPS established four generations per year, the most important was the spring generation. Two overlapping generations occurred in spring-early summer and two in autumn-early winter; these two pairs of generations were interspersed by two phases of high-mortality rates, the first corresponds to winter cold and the second refers to the extreme heat of summer. Statistical analysis of the effects of the studied climatic conditions (minimum, maximum and mean temperatures, precipitation, humidity, wind, rain days, and climatic indices) on the DPS densities at different phenological stages showed great variability from one stage to another. Among these, adult females were the most affected by climate factors. For the total DPS population, high values of minimum temperatures negatively affected population density, while high maximum temperatures, hygrometry, and De Martonne aridity index showed a positive influence.

Modeling the effects of climate on date palm scale (Parlatoria blanchardi) population dynamics during different phenological stages of life history under hot arid conditions.

PubMed

Idder-Ighili, Hakima; Idder, Mohamed Azzedine; Doumandji-Mitiche, Bahia; Chenchouni, Haroun

2015-10-01

The date palm scale (DPS) Parlatoria blanchardi is a serious pest due to the damage it inflicts on its host tree (Phoenix dactylifera). To develop an effective control against DPS in arid regions, it is essential to know its bio-ecology including population dynamics and climatic factors influencing the duration and timing of life history and also the densities of different phenological stages (crawlers, first and second instars nymphs, adult males, and adult females). Monitoring of biological cycle and population dynamics of the pest were achieved through weekly counts of DPS densities on leaflets sampled at different position of date palm trees in an oasis of Ouargla region (Algerian Sahara Desert). Within this hyper-arid region, DPS established four generations per year, the most important was the spring generation. Two overlapping generations occurred in spring-early summer and two in autumn-early winter; these two pairs of generations were interspersed by two phases of high-mortality rates, the first corresponds to winter cold and the second refers to the extreme heat of summer. Statistical analysis of the effects of the studied climatic conditions (minimum, maximum and mean temperatures, precipitation, humidity, wind, rain days, and climatic indices) on the DPS densities at different phenological stages showed great variability from one stage to another. Among these, adult females were the most affected by climate factors. For the total DPS population, high values of minimum temperatures negatively affected population density, while high maximum temperatures, hygrometry, and De Martonne aridity index showed a positive influence.

Thermal tolerance of the invasive Belonesox belizanus, pike killifish, throughout ontogeny.

PubMed

Kerfoot, James Roy

2012-06-01

The goal of this study was to characterize the variability of thermal tolerances between life-history stages of the invasive Belonesox belizanus and attempt to describe the most likely stage of dispersal across south Florida. In the laboratory, individuals were acclimated to three temperatures (20, 25, or 30°C). Upper and lower lethal thermal limits and temperatures at which feeding ceased were measured for neonates, juveniles, and adults. Thermal tolerance polygons were developed to represent the thermal tolerance range of each life-history stage. Results indicated that across acclimation temperatures upper lethal thermal limits were similar for all three stages (38°C). However, minimum lethal thermal limits were significantly different at the 30°C acclimation temperature, where juveniles (9°C) had an approximately 2.0°C and 4.0°C lower minimum lethal thermal limit compared with adults and neonates, respectively. According to thermal tolerance polygons, juveniles had an average tolerance polygonal area almost 20°C(2) larger than adults, indicating the greatest thermal tolerance of the three life-history stages. Variation in cessation of feeding temperatures indicated no significant difference between juveniles and adults. Overall, results of this study imply that juvenile B. belizanus may be equipped with the physiological flexibility to exercise habitat choice and reduce potential intraspecific competition with adults for limited food resources. Given its continued dispersal, the minimum thermal limit of juveniles may aid in continued dispersal of this species, especially during average winter temperatures throughout Florida where juveniles could act to preserve remnant populations until seasonal temperatures increase. © 2012 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

EnviroAtlas - Minimum Temperature 1950 - 2099 for the Conterminous United States

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The EnviroAtlas Climate Scenarios were generated from NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-DCP30) ensemble averages (the average of over 30 available climate models) for each of the four representative concentration pathways (RCP) for the contiguous U.S. at 30 arc-second (approx. 800 m2) spatial resolution. NEX-DCP30 mean monthly minimum temperature for the 4 RCPs (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) were organized by season (Winter, Spring, Summer, and Fall) and annually for the years 2006 00e2?? 2099. Additionally, mean monthly minimum temperature for the ensemble average of all historic runs is organized similarly for the years 1950 00e2?? 2005. This dataset was produced by the US EPA to support research and online mapping activities related to EnviroAtlas. EnviroAtlas (https://www.epa.gov/enviroatlas) allows the user to interact with a web-based, easy-to-use, mapping application to view and analyze multiple ecosystem services for the contiguous United States. The dataset is available as downloadable data (https://edg.epa.gov/data/Public/ORD/EnviroAtlas) or as an EnviroAtlas map service. Additional descriptive information about each attribute in this dataset can be found in its associated EnviroAtlas Fact Sheet (https://www.epa.gov/enviroatlas/enviroatlas-fact-sheets).

Yearly simulation of a solar-aided R22-DEGDME absorption heat pump system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ileri, A.

1995-12-31

The performance of a solar-aided R22-DEGDME absorption heat pump system designed for 100 kW cooling capacity is investigated by a computer simulation using hourly data for Ankara. In summer the generator, and in winter the evaporator, receives solar energy while the remaining demands are met by auxiliary heaters. When needed, these boost the temperature of the water from the storage tank to the minimum allowable levels which are determined as 20{degree}C in winter and over 80{degree}C in summer. The system performance, judged by the fraction of the load supplied from solar energy, is affected mostly from the climate, source temperaturemore » limit, collector type and area but little from storage tank size, for the sizes and configuration under investigation. With 400 m{sup 2} of high efficiency collectors, the solar energy supplied 38% of the demand in winter and 91% of the demand in summer. 22 refs., 2 figs., 6 tabs.« less

Influence of North Atlantic modes on European climate extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Proemmel, K.; Cubasch, U.

2017-12-01

It is well known that the North Atlantic strongly influences European climate. Only few studies exist that focus on its impact on climate extremes. We are interested in these extremes and the processes and mechanisms behind it. For the analysis of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) we use simulations performed with the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). The NAO has a strong impact especially on European winter and the changes in minimum temperature are even larger than in maximum temperature. The impact of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability (AMV) on climate extremes is analyzed in ECHAM6 simulations forced with AMV warm and AMV cold sea surface temperature patterns. We analyze different extreme indices and try to understand the processes.

Using thermal limits to assess establishment of fish dispersing to high-latitude and high-elevation watersheds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunmall, Karen M.; Mochnacz, Neil J.; Zimmerman, Christian E.; Lean, Charles; Reist, James D.

2016-01-01

Distributional shifts of biota to higher latitudes and elevations are presumably influenced by species-specific physiological tolerances related to warming temperatures. However, it is establishment rather than dispersal that may be limiting colonizations in these cold frontier areas. In freshwater ecosystems, perennial groundwater springs provide critical winter thermal refugia in these extreme environments. By reconciling the thermal characteristics of these refugia with the minimum thermal tolerances of life stages critical for establishment, we develop a strategy to focus broad projections of northward and upward range shifts to the specific habitats that are likely for establishments. We evaluate this strategy using chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) and pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) that seem poised to colonize Arctic watersheds. Stream habitats with a minimum temperature of 4 °C during spawning and temperatures above 2 °C during egg incubation were most vulnerable to establishments by chum and pink salmon. This strategy will improve modelling forecasts of range shifts for cold freshwater habitats and focus proactive efforts to conserve both newly emerging fisheries and native species at northern and upper distributional extremes.

Retrospective analysis of associations between water quality and toxic blooms of golden alga (Prymnesium parvum) in Texas reservoirs: Implications for understanding dispersal mechanisms and impacts of climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Patino, Reynaldo; Dawson, D.; VanLandeghem, Matthew M.

2014-01-01

Toxic blooms of golden alga (GA, Prymnesium parvum) in Texas typically occur in winter or early spring. In North America, they were first reported in Texas in the 1980s, and a marked range expansion occurred in 2001. Although there is concern about the influence of climate change on the future distribution of GA, factors responsible for past dispersals remain uncertain. To better understand the factors that influence toxic bloom dispersal in reservoirs, this study characterized reservoir water quality associated with toxic GA blooms since 2001, and examined trends in water quality during a 20-year period bracketing the 2001 expansion. Archived data were analyzed for six impacted and six nonimpacted reservoirs from two major Texas basins: Brazos River and Colorado River. Data were simplified for analysis by pooling spatially (across sampling stations) and temporally (winter, December-February) within reservoirs and generating depth-corrected (1 m) monthly values. Classification tree analysis [period of record (POR), 2001-2010] using salinity-associated variables (specific conductance, chloride, sulfate), dissolved oxygen (DO), pH, temperature, total hardness, potassium, nitrate+nitrite, and total phosphorus indicated that salinity best predicts the toxic bloom occurrence. Minimum estimated salinities for toxic bloom formation were 0.59 and 1.02 psu in Brazos and Colorado River reservoirs, respectively. Principal component analysis (POR, 2001-2010) indicated that GA habitat is best defined by higher salinity relative to nonimpacted reservoirs, with winter DO and pH also being slightly higher and winter temperature slightly lower in impacted reservoirs. Trend analysis, however, did not reveal monotonic changes in winter water quality of GA-impacted reservoirs during the 20-year period (1991-2010) bracketing the 2001 dispersal. Therefore, whereas minimum levels of salinity are required for GA establishment and toxic blooms in Texas reservoirs, the lack of trends in water quality suggests that conditions favorable for toxic blooms pre-date the 2001 expansion. These observations are consistent with a climate change-independent scenario of past GA dispersals in Texas reservoirs driven by novel introductions into pre-existing favorable habitat. Reports of latent GA populations in certain nonimpacted reservoirs, however, provide a plausible scenario of future dispersals characterized by prolonged periods between colonization and toxic bloom development and driven by changes in water quality, natural, or anthropogenic.

Offshore Habitat Preference of Overwintering Juvenile and Adult Black Sea Bass, Centropristis striata, and the Relationship to Year-Class Success

PubMed Central

Miller, Alicia S.; Shepherd, Gary R.; Fratantoni, Paula S.

2016-01-01

Black sea bass (Centropristis striata) migrations are believed to play a role in overwinter survival and connectivity between juvenile and adult populations. This study investigated oceanographic drivers of winter habitat choice and regional differences between populations of juvenile and adult black sea bass. Trends in cohort strength, as a result of juvenile survival, were also identified. Oceanographic and fisheries survey data were analyzed using generalized additive models. Among the oceanographic variables investigated, salinity was the main driver in habitat selection with an optimal range of 33–35 practical salinity units (PSU) for both juveniles and adults. Preferred temperature ranges varied between juveniles and adults, but held a similar minimum preference of >8°C. Salinity and temperature ranges also differed by regions north and south of Hudson Canyon. Shelf water volume had less of an effect than temperature or salinity, but showed an overall negative relationship with survey catch. The effect of winter conditions on juvenile abundance was also observed across state and federal survey index trends. A lack of correlation observed among surveys in the fall paired with a strong correlation in the spring identifies the winter period as a factor determining year-class strength of new recruits to the population. A rank order analysis of spring indices identified three of the largest year classes occurring during years with reduced shelf water volumes, warmer winter shelf waters, and a 34 PSU isohaline aligned farther inshore. While greater catches of black sea bass in the northwest Atlantic Ocean remain south of Hudson Canyon, the species’ range has expanded north in recent years. PMID:26824350

Representing winter wheat in the Community Land Model (version 4.5)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lu, Yaqiong; Williams, Ian N.; Bagley, Justin E.

Winter wheat is a staple crop for global food security, and is the dominant vegetation cover for a significant fraction of Earth's croplands. As such, it plays an important role in carbon cycling and land–atmosphere interactions in these key regions. Accurate simulation of winter wheat growth is not only crucial for future yield prediction under a changing climate, but also for accurately predicting the energy and water cycles for winter wheat dominated regions. We modified the winter wheat model in the Community Land Model (CLM) to better simulate winter wheat leaf area index, latent heat flux, net ecosystem exchange ofmore » CO 2, and grain yield. These included schemes to represent vernalization as well as frost tolerance and damage. We calibrated three key parameters (minimum planting temperature, maximum crop growth days, and initial value of leaf carbon allocation coefficient) and modified the grain carbon allocation algorithm for simulations at the US Southern Great Plains ARM site (US-ARM), and validated the model performance at eight additional sites across North America. We found that the new winter wheat model improved the prediction of monthly variation in leaf area index, reduced latent heat flux, and net ecosystem exchange root mean square error (RMSE) by 41 and 35 % during the spring growing season. The model accurately simulated the interannual variation in yield at the US-ARM site, but underestimated yield at sites and in regions (northwestern and southeastern US) with historically greater yields by 35 %.« less

Representing winter wheat in the Community Land Model (version 4.5)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Yaqiong; Williams, Ian N.; Bagley, Justin E.; Torn, Margaret S.; Kueppers, Lara M.

2017-05-01

Winter wheat is a staple crop for global food security, and is the dominant vegetation cover for a significant fraction of Earth's croplands. As such, it plays an important role in carbon cycling and land-atmosphere interactions in these key regions. Accurate simulation of winter wheat growth is not only crucial for future yield prediction under a changing climate, but also for accurately predicting the energy and water cycles for winter wheat dominated regions. We modified the winter wheat model in the Community Land Model (CLM) to better simulate winter wheat leaf area index, latent heat flux, net ecosystem exchange of CO2, and grain yield. These included schemes to represent vernalization as well as frost tolerance and damage. We calibrated three key parameters (minimum planting temperature, maximum crop growth days, and initial value of leaf carbon allocation coefficient) and modified the grain carbon allocation algorithm for simulations at the US Southern Great Plains ARM site (US-ARM), and validated the model performance at eight additional sites across North America. We found that the new winter wheat model improved the prediction of monthly variation in leaf area index, reduced latent heat flux, and net ecosystem exchange root mean square error (RMSE) by 41 and 35 % during the spring growing season. The model accurately simulated the interannual variation in yield at the US-ARM site, but underestimated yield at sites and in regions (northwestern and southeastern US) with historically greater yields by 35 %.

Representing winter wheat in the Community Land Model (version 4.5)

DOE PAGES

Lu, Yaqiong; Williams, Ian N.; Bagley, Justin E.; ...

2017-05-05

Winter wheat is a staple crop for global food security, and is the dominant vegetation cover for a significant fraction of Earth's croplands. As such, it plays an important role in carbon cycling and land–atmosphere interactions in these key regions. Accurate simulation of winter wheat growth is not only crucial for future yield prediction under a changing climate, but also for accurately predicting the energy and water cycles for winter wheat dominated regions. We modified the winter wheat model in the Community Land Model (CLM) to better simulate winter wheat leaf area index, latent heat flux, net ecosystem exchange ofmore » CO 2, and grain yield. These included schemes to represent vernalization as well as frost tolerance and damage. We calibrated three key parameters (minimum planting temperature, maximum crop growth days, and initial value of leaf carbon allocation coefficient) and modified the grain carbon allocation algorithm for simulations at the US Southern Great Plains ARM site (US-ARM), and validated the model performance at eight additional sites across North America. We found that the new winter wheat model improved the prediction of monthly variation in leaf area index, reduced latent heat flux, and net ecosystem exchange root mean square error (RMSE) by 41 and 35 % during the spring growing season. The model accurately simulated the interannual variation in yield at the US-ARM site, but underestimated yield at sites and in regions (northwestern and southeastern US) with historically greater yields by 35 %.« less

Parameterized study of the ionospheric modification associated with sun-aligned polar cap arcs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crain, D. J.; Sojka, J. J.; Schunk, R. W.; Zhu, L.

1993-01-01

The local ionospheric modification that is due to a generalized steady state solar aligned (SA) arc structure is addressed. For a representative set of SA arc parameters which includes both convection and precipitation, emphasis is placed on the modification by SA polar cap arcs upon the F region electron density and the height integrated conductivity. At low fluxes and low characteristic energies, SA polar cap arcs have the most pronounced relative effect at F region altitudes in darkness for winter solar minimum conditions. The absolute enhancement in summer solar minimum and winter solar maximum is equivalent to that of winter solar minimum, but the higher ambient densities make the relative enhancement less. The TEC enhancement associated with an SA arc may be used to indicate the degree of plasma cross flow across the arc.

Quantifying Observed Temperature Extremes in the Southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sura, P.; Stefanova, L. B.; Griffin, M.; Worsnop, R.

2011-12-01

There is broad consensus that the most hazardous effects of climate change are related to a potential increase (in frequency and/or intensity) of extreme weather and climate events. In particular, the statistics of regional daily temperature extremes are of practical interest for the agricultural community and energy suppliers. This is notably true for the Southeastern United States where winter hard freezes are a relatively rare and potentially catastrophic event. Here we use a long record of quality-controlled observations collected from 272 National Weather Service (NWS) Cooperative Observing Network (COOP) stations throughout Florida, Georgia, Alabama, and South and North Carolina to provide a detailed climatology of temperature extremes in the Southeastern United States. We employ two complementary approaches. First, we analyze the effect of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) on the non-Gaussian (i.e. higher order) statistics of wintertime daily minimum and maximum temperatures. We find a significant and spatially varying impact of ENSO and AO on the non-Gaussian statistics of daily maximum and minimum temperatures throughout the domain. Second, the extremes of the temperature distributions are studied by calculating the 1st and 99th percentiles, and then analyzing the number of days with record low/high temperatures per season. This analysis of daily temperature extremes reveals oscillating, multi-decadal patterns with spatially varying centers of action.

Role of resolution in regional climate change projections over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Ying; Wang, Guiling; Gao, Xuejie

2017-11-01

This paper investigates the sensitivity of projected future climate changes over China to the horizontal resolution of a regional climate model RegCM4.4 (RegCM), using RCP8.5 as an example. Model validation shows that RegCM performs better in reproducing the spatial distribution and magnitude of present-day temperature, precipitation and climate extremes than the driving global climate model HadGEM2-ES (HadGEM, at 1.875° × 1.25° degree resolution), but little difference is found between the simulations at 50 and 25 km resolutions. Comparison with observational data at different resolutions confirmed the added value of the RCM and finer model resolutions in better capturing the probability distribution of precipitation. However, HadGEM and RegCM at both resolutions project a similar pattern of significant future warming during both winter and summer, and a similar pattern of winter precipitation changes including dominant increase in most areas of northern China and little change or decrease in the southern part. Projected precipitation changes in summer diverge among the three models, especially over eastern China, with a general increase in HadGEM, little change in RegCM at 50 km, and a mix of increase and decrease in RegCM at 25 km resolution. Changes of temperature-related extremes (annual total number of daily maximum temperature > 25 °C, the maximum value of daily maximum temperature, the minimum value of daily minimum temperature in the three simulations especially in the two RegCM simulations are very similar to each other; so are the precipitation-related extremes (maximum consecutive dry days, maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation and extremely wet days' total amount). Overall, results from this study indicate a very low sensitivity of projected changes in this region to model resolution. While fine resolution is critical for capturing the spatial variability of the control climate, it may not be as important for capturing the climate response to homogeneous forcing (in this case greenhouse gas concentration changes).

Biogas generation from in-storage psychrophilic anaerobic digestion.

PubMed

Giard, David; Choiniere, Denis; Cordeau, Sébastien; Barrington, Suzelle

2013-01-01

In-storage psychrophilic anaerobic digestion (ISPAD) is a technology allowing livestock producers to operate an anaerobic digester with minimum technological know-how and for the cost of a conventional storage cover. Nevertheless, the system is exposed to ambient temperatures and biogas production is expected to vary with climatic conditions. The objective of the project was therefore to measure ISPAD biogas production during the winter and fall seasons for a region east of Montreal, Canada. A calibrated biogas monitoring system was used to monitor biogas methane and carbon dioxide concentrations inside a two-year-old field installation with a 1000 m3 storage capacity. Despite a leaking pumping hatch, winter 2010 (January to March) methane concentrations varied directly with solar radiation and maximum exterior temperature, rather than with manure temperature at 2.4 and 1.2 m depths which remained relatively constant between 1 and 5 degrees C. During a six-month-period from November 2009 to April 2010, inclusively, the field ISPAD degraded 34% of the manure volatile solids corresponding to an average methane production of 40 m3/d. The ISPAD biogas production could be further increased by improving its air tightness and intrusion and by regularly pumping out the biogas.

Seasonal trends in vegetation and atmospheric concentrations of PAHs and PBDEs near a sanitary landfill

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

St-Amand, Annick D.; Mayer, Paul M.; Blais, Jules M.

Spruce needle and atmospheric (gaseous and particulate-bound) concentrations were surveyed near a sanitary landfill from February 2004 to June 2005. The influence of several parameters such as temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, as well as increased domestic heating during the winter was assessed. In general, polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDE) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) concentrations in spruce needles increased over time and decreased following snowmelt with a minimum coinciding with bud burst of deciduous trees. Atmospheric concentrations of PBDE and PAH, both particulate-bound and gaseous phase, were linked to daily weather events and thus showed more variability than those in spruce needles. Highest PAH concentrations were encountered during the winter, likely reflecting increased emission from heating homes. Pseudo Clausius-Clapeyron plots revealed higher PBDE gaseous concentrations with increasing temperature, but showed no correlation between PAH gaseous concentrations and temperature as this effect was obscured by seasonal emission patterns. Finally, air mass back trajectories and local wind directions revealed that particulate-bound PBDEs, along with both gaseous and particulate-bound PAHs were from local sources, whereas gaseous PBDEs were likely from distant sources.

Seasonal variations of mesopause temperature and the amplitude of the VLF signals of the Novosibirsk radio station during 2009-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korsakov, Alexey; Kozlov, Vladimir; Ammosova, Anastasia; Ammosov, Petr; Gavrilyeva, Galina; Koltovskoi, Igor; Pavlov, Yegor

2017-10-01

Dynamics of seasonal variations of the amplitude of the VLF radio signal received in Yakutsk from the navigation station near Novosibirsk and the P-branches of the OH band (6-2) radiation intensity in the wavelength range 835 - 853 nm are considered. The radiation variations give information about mesopause region measured at the Maimaga station (130 km from Yakutsk). The observation from 2009 to 2016 covers period with minimum and maximum solar activity. The mesopause temperature and the VLF signal increase with increasing solar flux F10.7 in winter. The mesopause temperature seasonal variations and the VLF signal strength for the Novosibirsk-Yakutsk path are regularly inverted from year to year. By decade data averaging the VLF radio signal strength dependence on the temperature of the atmosphere at the OH excitation height can be expressed by a linear function. The coefficient of determination: R2 = 0.59, the anticorrelation coefficient: r10 = - 0.77. The variations of the VLF radio noise and the radio station signal for the eight-year interval are similar to solar activity (F10.7 index). The signal level of the radio station and radio noise registered in the winter is more sensitive to variations of F10.7 index in 24th solar cycle activity.

European Temperature Variability and Climate Forcing Over The Last 500 Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luterbacher, J.; Wanner, H.; Dietrich, D.; Friedli, T. K.

We present seasonal temperature reconstructions back to 1500 for the European land areas (30W-40E; 35N-70N) on a dense 0.5x0.5 latitude by longitude grid. The reconstructions were developed using PC regression analysis based on the combina- tion of early instrumental station series of temperature and pressure and proxy data from Eurasian sites. The statistical relationships were derived over the 1901-1995 in- strumental period (New et al. 2000) and applied to the pre-1900 data. The reliability of the reconstruction and the time-dependent uncertainty ranges about the estimates are discussed. We derived a high precision winter (DJF), summer (JJA) and annual (J-D) mean Eu- ropean temperature time series from 1500-1998 through averaging of all the 5100 land gridpoints. We found several cold relapses and warm intervals on the decadal timescale, on which shorter-period quasi-oscillatory behaviour was superimposed. Warmer European winters were experienced in the first third of the 16th century, at the beginning of the 17th century and generally in the 20th century. The warmest decade was 1989-1998. Cooler winter conditions were found in the second part of the 16th century, during the Maunder Minimum and in most parts of the 19th century. The coldest decades in winter temperatures were 1586-1595 and the 1690s with 1.5C lower values compared to the 1961-1990 mean. Warm summers were observed from around 1530 to 1570, from the 1750s to the early 19th century, around 1950 and at the end of the 20th century. 1789-1798 and the 1990s were the warmest decades in summer temperatures. Cooler summer periods were prevalent from the 1570s to the beginning of the 17th century, in the middle of the 18th century and at the turn of the 20th century. The summers from 1902-1916 were among the coldest over the last 500 years. The low pass filtered timeseries of the annually averaged temperatures from 1500- 1950 were mainly below the 1961-1990 average. The yearly mean European tempera- ture are partly in agreement with Northern Hemispheric temperature variations (Mann et al. 1998). Finally, the statistical relationship between European annual temperature and recent estimates of climate forcing time series (Robertson et al. 2001) are presented.

Covariability of seasonal temperature and precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula in high-resolution regional climate simulations (1001-2099)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández-Montes, S.; Gómez-Navarro, J. J.; Rodrigo, F. S.; García-Valero, J. A.; Montávez, J. P.

2017-04-01

Precipitation and surface temperature are interdependent variables, both as a response to atmospheric dynamics and due to intrinsic thermodynamic relationships and feedbacks between them. This study analyzes the covariability of seasonal temperature (T) and precipitation (P) across the Iberian Peninsula (IP) using regional climate paleosimulations for the period 1001-1990, driven by reconstructions of external forcings. Future climate (1990-2099) was simulated according to SRES scenarios A2 and B2. These simulations enable exploring, at high spatial resolution, robust and physically consistent relationships. In winter, positive P-T correlations dominate west-central IP (Pearson correlation coefficient ρ = + 0.43, for 1001-1990), due to prevalent cold-dry and warm-wet conditions, while this relationship weakens and become negative towards mountainous, northern and eastern regions. In autumn, negative correlations appear in similar regions as in winter, whereas for summer they extend also to the N/NW of the IP. In spring, the whole IP depicts significant negative correlations, strongest for eastern regions (ρ = - 0.51). This is due to prevalent frequency of warm-dry and cold-wet modes in these regions and seasons. At the temporal scale, regional correlation series between seasonal anomalies of temperature and precipitation (assessed in 31 years running windows in 1001-1990) show very large multidecadal variability. For winter and spring, periodicities of about 50-60 years arise. The frequency of warm-dry and cold-wet modes appears correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), explaining mainly co-variability changes in spring. For winter and some regions in autumn, maximum and minimum P-T correlations appear in periods with enhanced meridional or easterly circulation (low or high pressure anomalies in the Mediterranean and Europe). In spring and summer, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation shows some fingerprint on the frequency of warm/cold modes. For future scenarios, an intensification of the negative P-T relationship is generally found, as a result of an increased frequency of the warm-dry mode.

Unravelling Diurnal Asymmetry of Surface Temperature in Different Climate Zones.

PubMed

Vinnarasi, R; Dhanya, C T; Chakravorty, Aniket; AghaKouchak, Amir

2017-08-04

Understanding the evolution of Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR), which has contradicting global and regional trends, is crucial because it influences environmental and human health. Here, we analyse the regional evolution of DTR trend over different climatic zones in India using a non-stationary approach known as the Multidimensional Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (MEEMD) method, to explore the generalized influence of regional climate on DTR, if any. We report a 0.36 °C increase in overall mean of DTR till 1980, however, the rate has declined since then. Further, arid deserts and warm-temperate grasslands exhibit negative DTR trends, while the west coast and sub-tropical forest in the north-east show positive trends. This transition predominantly begins with a 0.5 °C increase from the west coast and spreads with an increase of 0.25 °C per decade. These changes are more pronounced during winter and post-monsoon, especially in the arid desert and warm-temperate grasslands, the DTR decreased up to 2 °C, where the rate of increase in minimum temperature is higher than the maximum temperature. We conclude that both maximum and minimum temperature increase in response to the global climate change, however, their rates of increase are highly local and depend on the underlying climatic zone.

Coherent variability between seasonal temperatures and rainfalls in the Iberian Peninsula, 1951-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigo, F. S.

2018-02-01

In this work trends of seasonal mean of daily minimum (TN), maximum (TX), mean (TM) temperatures, daily range of temperature (DTR), and total seasonal rainfall (R) in 35 Iberian stations since mid-twentieth century are studied. The interest is focused on the relationships between temperature variables and rainfall, taking into account the correlation coefficients between R and the temperature variables. The negative link between rainfall and temperatures is detected in the four seasons of the year, except in western stations in winter for TN and TM, and in autumn for TN (for this variable a certain annual cycle is detected, with predominance of positive correlation in winter, negative in spring and summer, and the autumn as transition season). The role of cloud cover is confirmed in those stations with total cloud cover data. Using an average peninsular series, the relationship between nighttime temperature and rainfall related to long wave radiation is confirmed for the four seasons of the year, although in spring and summer has minor importance than in the cold half year. The relationships between R, TN, and TX are in general terms stable after a moving correlation analysis, although the negative correlation between TX and R seems be weakened in spring and autumn and reinforced in summer. The role of convective precipitation in autumn is discussed. The analysis of combined extreme indices in four representative stations shows an increase of warm and dry days, and a decrease of cold and wet days.

Evidence of Lunar Phase Influence on Global Surface Air Temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anyamba, Ebby; Susskind, Joel

2000-01-01

Intraseasonal oscillations appearing in a newly available 20-year record of satellite-derived surface air temperature are composited with respect to the lunar phase. Polar regions exhibit strong lunar phase modulation with higher temperatures occurs near full moon and lower temperatures at new moon, in agreement with previous studies. The polar response to the apparent lunar forcing is shown to be most robust in the winter months when solar influence is minimum. In addition, the response appears to be influenced by ENSO events. The highest mean temperature range between full moon and new moon in the polar region between 60 deg and 90 deg latitude was recorded in 1983, 1986/87, and 1990/91. Although the largest lunar phase signal is in the polar regions, there is a tendency for meridional equatorward progression of anomalies in both hemispheres so that the warning in the tropics occurs at the time of the new moon.

Simulations of a hypothetical temperature control structure at Detroit Dam on the North Santiam River, northwestern Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buccola, Norman L.; Stonewall, Adam J.; Rounds, Stewart A.

2015-01-01

Estimated egg-emergence days for endangered Upper Willamette River Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and Upper Willamette River winter steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) were assessed for all scenarios. Estimated spring Chinook fry emergence under SlidingWeir scenarios was 9 days later immediately downstream of Big Cliff Dam, and 4 days later at Greens Bridge compared with existing structural scenarios at Detroit Dam. Despite the inclusion of a hypothetical sliding weir at Detroit Dam, temperatures exceeded without-dams temperatures during November and December. These late-autumn exceedances likely represent the residual thermal effect of Detroit Lake operated to meet minimum dry-season release rates (supporting instream habitat and irrigation requirements) and lake levels specified by the current (2014) operating rules (supporting recreation and flood mitigation).

The Shifting Climate Portfolio of the Greater Yellowstone Area

PubMed Central

Sepulveda, Adam J.; Tercek, Michael T.; Al-Chokhachy, Robert; Ray, Andrew M.; Thoma, David P.; Hossack, Blake R.; Pederson, Gregory T.; Rodman, Ann W.; Olliff, Tom

2015-01-01

Knowledge of climatic variability at small spatial extents (< 50 km) is needed to assess vulnerabilities of biological reserves to climate change. We used empirical and modeled weather station data to test if climate change has increased the synchrony of surface air temperatures among 50 sites within the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) of the interior western United States. This important biological reserve is the largest protected area in the Lower 48 states and provides critical habitat for some of the world’s most iconic wildlife. We focused our analyses on temporal shifts and shape changes in the annual distributions of seasonal minimum and maximum air temperatures among valley-bottom and higher elevation sites from 1948–2012. We documented consistent patterns of warming since 1948 at all 50 sites, with the most pronounced changes occurring during the Winter and Summer when minimum and maximum temperature distributions increased. These shifts indicate more hot temperatures and less cold temperatures would be expected across the GYA. Though the shifting statistical distributions indicate warming, little change in the shape of the temperature distributions across sites since 1948 suggest the GYA has maintained a diverse portfolio of temperatures within a year. Spatial heterogeneity in temperatures is likely maintained by the GYA’s physiographic complexity and its large size, which encompasses multiple climate zones that respond differently to synoptic drivers. Having a diverse portfolio of temperatures may help biological reserves spread the extinction risk posed by climate change. PMID:26674185

The shifting climate portfolio of the Greater Yellowstone Area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sepulveda, Adam; Tercek, Mike T; Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Ray, Andrew; Thoma, David P.; Hossack, Blake R.; Pederson, Gregory T.; Rodman, Ann; Olliff, Tom

2015-01-01

Knowledge of climatic variability at small spatial extents (< 50 km) is needed to assess vulnerabilities of biological reserves to climate change. We used empirical and modeled weather station data to test if climate change has increased the synchrony of surface air temperatures among 50 sites within the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) of the interior western United States. This important biological reserve is the largest protected area in the Lower 48 states and provides critical habitat for some of the world’s most iconic wildlife. We focused our analyses on temporal shifts and shape changes in the annual distributions of seasonal minimum and maximum air temperatures among valley-bottom and higher elevation sites from 1948–2012. We documented consistent patterns of warming since 1948 at all 50 sites, with the most pronounced changes occurring during the Winter and Summer when minimum and maximum temperature distributions increased. These shifts indicate more hot temperatures and less cold temperatures would be expected across the GYA. Though the shifting statistical distributions indicate warming, little change in the shape of the temperature distributions across sites since 1948 suggest the GYA has maintained a diverse portfolio of temperatures within a year. Spatial heterogeneity in temperatures is likely maintained by the GYA’s physiographic complexity and its large size, which encompasses multiple climate zones that respond differently to synoptic drivers. Having a diverse portfolio of temperatures may help biological reserves spread the extinction risk posed by climate change.

Assessment of an extended version of the Jenkinson-Collison classification on CMIP5 models over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otero, Noelia; Sillmann, Jana; Butler, Tim

2018-03-01

A gridded, geographically extended weather type classification has been developed based on the Jenkinson-Collison (JC) classification system and used to evaluate the representation of weather types over Europe in a suite of climate model simulations. To this aim, a set of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) is compared with the circulation from two reanalysis products. Furthermore, we examine seasonal changes between simulated frequencies of weather types at present and future climate conditions. The models are in reasonably good agreement with the reanalyses, but some discrepancies occur in cyclonic days being overestimated over North, and underestimated over South Europe, while anticyclonic situations were overestimated over South, and underestimated over North Europe. Low flow conditions were generally underestimated, especially in summer over South Europe, and Westerly conditions were generally overestimated. The projected frequencies of weather types in the late twenty-first century suggest an increase of Anticyclonic days over South Europe in all seasons except summer, while Westerly days increase over North and Central Europe, particularly in winter. We find significant changes in the frequency of Low flow conditions and the Easterly type that become more frequent during the warmer seasons over Southeast and Southwest Europe, respectively. Our results indicate that in winter the Westerly type has significant impacts on positive anomalies of maximum and minimum temperature over most of Europe. Except in winter, the warmer temperatures are linked to Easterlies, Anticyclonic and Low Flow conditions, especially over the Mediterranean area. Furthermore, we show that changes in the frequency of weather types represent a minor contribution of the total change of European temperatures, which would be mainly driven by changes in the temperature anomalies associated with the weather types themselves.

Interannual changes in snow cover and its impact on ground surface temperatures in Livingston Island (Antarctica)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nieuwendam, Alexandre; Ramos, Miguel; Vieira, Gonçalo

2015-04-01

In permafrost areas the seasonal snow cover is an important factor on the ground thermal regime. Snow depth and timing are important in ground insulation from the atmosphere, creating different snow patterns and resulting in spatially variable ground temperatures. The aim of this work is to characterize the interactions between ground thermal regimes and snow cover and the influence on permafrost spatial distribution. The study area is the ice-free terrains of northwestern Hurd Peninsula in the vicinity of the Spanish Antarctic Station "Juan Carlos I" and Bulgarian Antarctic Station "St. Kliment Ohridski". Air and ground temperatures and snow thickness data where analysed from 4 sites along an altitudinal transect in Hurd Peninsula from 2007 to 2012: Nuevo Incinerador (25 m asl), Collado Ramos (110 m), Ohridski (140 m) and Reina Sofia Peak (275 m). The data covers 6 cold seasons showing different conditions: i) very cold with thin snow cover; ii) cold with a gradual increase of snow cover; iii) warm with thick snow cover. The data shows three types of periods regarding the ground surface thermal regime and the thickness of snow cover: a) thin snow cover and short-term fluctuation of ground temperatures; b) thick snow cover and stable ground temperatures; c) very thick snow cover and ground temperatures nearly constant at 0°C. a) Thin snow cover periods: Collado Ramos and Ohridski sites show frequent temperature variations, alternating between short-term fluctuations and stable ground temperatures. Nuevo Incinerador displays during most of the winter stable ground temperatures; b) Cold winters with a gradual increase of the snow cover: Nuevo Incinerador, Collado Ramos and Ohridski sites show similar behavior, with a long period of stable ground temperatures; c) Thick snow cover periods: Collado Ramos and Ohridski show long periods of stable ground, while Nuevo Incinerador shows temperatures close to 0°C since the beginning of the winter, due to early snow cover, which prevents cooling. Reina Sofia shows a very different behavior from the other sites, with a frequent stabilization of ground temperatures during all the winters, and last until late-fall. This situation could be related to the structure, and physical and thermal properties of snow cover. The analysis of the Freezing Degree Days (FDDs) and freezing n-factor reveals significant interannual variations. Ohridski shows the highest FDDs values followed by Reina Sofia. Nuevo Incinerador showed the lowest FDDs values. The freezing n-factor shows highest values at Ohridski, followed by Collado Ramos and Reina Sofia with very similar values. Nuevo Incinerador shows the lowest n-factor values. Snow cover doesn't insulate the ground from freezing, but depending on its thickness, density and the amount of heat in the ground, it decreases ground temperatures amplitudes and increases delays relative to air temperature changes. Even where snow cover remains several centimeters thick for several months, slow decrease of bottom temperature is possible, reaching a minimum value at the end of the winter. The results demonstrate that Reina Sofia and Ohridski sites, because of the seasonal behavior, FDDs and freezing n-factor, demonstrate higher winter ground cooling. This research was funded by PERMANTAR-3 (PTDC/AAG-GLO/3908/2012) project (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia of Portugal)

[Prediction model of meteorological grade of wheat stripe rust in winter-reproductive area, Sichuan Basin, China].

PubMed

Guo, Xiang; Wang, Ming Tian; Zhang, Guo Zhi

2017-12-01

The winter reproductive areas of Puccinia striiformis var. striiformis in Sichuan Basin are often the places mostly affected by wheat stripe rust. With data on the meteorological condition and stripe rust situation at typical stations in the winter reproductive area in Sichuan Basin from 1999 to 2016, this paper classified the meteorological conditions inducing wheat stripe rust into 5 grades, based on the incidence area ratio of the disease. The meteorological factors which were biologically related to wheat stripe rust were determined through multiple analytical methods, and a meteorological grade model for forecasting wheat stripe rust was created. The result showed that wheat stripe rust in Sichuan Basin was significantly correlated with many meteorological factors, such as the ave-rage (maximum and minimum) temperature, precipitation and its anomaly percentage, relative humidity and its anomaly percentage, average wind speed and sunshine duration. Among these, the average temperature and the anomaly percentage of relative humidity were the determining factors. According to a historical retrospective test, the accuracy of the forecast based on the model was 64% for samples in the county-level test, and 89% for samples in the municipal-level test. In a meteorological grade forecast of wheat stripe rust in the winter reproductive areas in Sichuan Basin in 2017, the prediction was accurate for 62.8% of the samples, with 27.9% error by one grade and only 9.3% error by two or more grades. As a result, the model could deliver satisfactory forecast results, and predicate future wheat stripe rust from a meteorological point of view.

[Indoor air quality in school facilities in Cassino (Italy)].

PubMed

Langiano, Elisa; Lanni, Liana; Atrei, Patrizia; Ferrara, Maria; La Torre, Giuseppe; Capelli, Giovanni; De Vito, Elisabetta

2008-01-01

This study evaluated the indoor air quality of 26 classrooms of secondary schools in the city of Cassino (Italy). Two types of school buildings were assessed: buildings specifically designed as schools, and former dwellings converted to schools. Measurements were taken in both winter and spring months, before students entered the classrooms and while the classrooms were occupied. Lower thermal comfort levels were observed during the winter months; in fact, during the winter, ideal temperature, humidity and air speed parameters were found in only a small percentage of classrooms and students were found to experience thermal discomfort as a result. Air velocity was often found to be inadequate both in winter and spring months and in both types of school buildings evaluated. Illumination levels measured during the winter months with both natural daylight and mixed illumination, were found to be below 200 lux, the minimum recommended level recommended by the ministerial decree 18.12.1975. Noise levels above the maximum level recommended by the ministerial decree 01.03.1991 were also frequently observed. The symptoms most frequently reported by students were headache, difficulties in concentrating, cough, and unusual tiredness. The various discomfort situations observed in both types of school buildings point toward a need for greater attention toward indoor air quality of schools as this can have affect students' attention, concentration, productivity and comfort.

Thyroid hormone fluctuations indicate a thermoregulatory function in both a tropical (Alouatta palliata) and seasonally cold-habitat (Macaca fuscata) primate.

PubMed

Thompson, Cynthia L; Powell, Brianna L; Williams, Susan H; Hanya, Goro; Glander, Kenneth E; Vinyard, Christopher J

2017-11-01

Thyroid hormones boost animals' basal metabolic rate and represent an important thermoregulatory pathway for mammals that face cold temperatures. Whereas the cold thermal pressures experienced by primates in seasonal habitats at high latitudes and elevations are often apparent, tropical habitats also display distinct wet and dry seasons with modest changes in thermal environment. We assessed seasonal and temperature-related changes in thyroid hormone levels for two primate species in disparate thermal environments, tropical mantled howlers (Alouatta palliata), and seasonally cold-habitat Japanese macaques (Macaca fuscata). We collected urine and feces from animals and used ELISA to quantify levels of the thyroid hormone triiodothyronine (fT 3 ). For both species, fT 3 levels were significantly higher during the cooler season (wet/winter), consistent with a thermoregulatory role. Likewise, both species displayed greater temperature deficits (i.e., the degree to which animals warm their body temperature relative to ambient) during the cooler season, indicating greater thermoregulatory pressures during this time. Independently of season, Japanese macaques displayed increasing fT 3 levels with decreasing recently experienced maximum temperatures, but no relationship between fT 3 and recently experienced minimum temperatures. Howlers increased fT 3 levels as recently experienced minimum temperatures decreased, although demonstrated the opposite relationship with maximum temperatures. This may reflect natural thermal variation in howlers' habitat: wet seasons had cooler minimum and mean temperatures than the dry season, but similar maximum temperatures. Overall, our findings support the hypothesis that both tropical howlers and seasonally cold-habitat Japanese macaques utilize thyroid hormones as a mechanism to boost metabolism in response to thermoregulatory pressures. This implies that cool thermal pressures faced by tropical primates are sufficient to invoke an energetically costly and relatively longer-term thermoregulatory pathway. The well-established relationship between thyroid hormones and energetics suggests that the seasonal hormonal changes we observed could influence many commonly studied behaviors including food choice, range use, and activity patterns. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Warmed Winter Water Temperatures Alter Reproduction in Two Fish Species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Firkus, Tyler; Rahel, Frank J.; Bergman, Harold L.; Cherrington, Brian D.

2018-02-01

We examined the spawning success of Fathead Minnows ( Pimephales promelas) and Johnny Darters ( Etheostoma nigrum) exposed to elevated winter water temperatures typical of streams characterized by anthropogenic thermal inputs. When Fathead Minnows were exposed to temperature treatments of 12, 16, or 20 °C during the winter, spawning occurred at 16 and 20 °C but not 12 °C. Eggs were deposited over 9 weeks before winter spawning ceased. Fathead Minnows from the three winter temperature treatments were then exposed to a simulated spring transition. Spawning occurred at all three temperature treatments during the spring, but fish from the 16° and 20 °C treatment had delayed egg production indicating a latent effect of warm winter temperatures on spring spawning. mRNA analysis of the egg yolk protein vitellogenin showed elevated expression in female Fathead Minnows at 16 and 20 °C during winter spawning that decreased after winter spawning ceased, whereas Fathead Minnows at 12 °C maintained comparatively low expression during winter. Johnny Darters were exposed to 4 °C to represent winter temperatures in the absence of thermal inputs, and 12, 16, and 20 °C to represent varying degrees of winter thermal pollution. Johnny Darters spawned during winter at 12, 16, and 20 °C but not at 4 °C. Johnny Darters at 4 °C subsequently spawned following a simulated spring period while those at 12, 16, and 20 °C did not. Our results indicate elevated winter water temperatures common in effluent-dominated streams can promote out-of-season spawning and that vitellogenin expression is a useful indicator of spawning readiness for fish exposed to elevated winter temperatures.

Warmed Winter Water Temperatures Alter Reproduction in Two Fish Species.

PubMed

Firkus, Tyler; Rahel, Frank J; Bergman, Harold L; Cherrington, Brian D

2018-02-01

We examined the spawning success of Fathead Minnows (Pimephales promelas) and Johnny Darters (Etheostoma nigrum) exposed to elevated winter water temperatures typical of streams characterized by anthropogenic thermal inputs. When Fathead Minnows were exposed to temperature treatments of 12, 16, or 20 °C during the winter, spawning occurred at 16 and 20 °C but not 12 °C. Eggs were deposited over 9 weeks before winter spawning ceased. Fathead Minnows from the three winter temperature treatments were then exposed to a simulated spring transition. Spawning occurred at all three temperature treatments during the spring, but fish from the 16° and 20 °C treatment had delayed egg production indicating a latent effect of warm winter temperatures on spring spawning. mRNA analysis of the egg yolk protein vitellogenin showed elevated expression in female Fathead Minnows at 16 and 20 °C during winter spawning that decreased after winter spawning ceased, whereas Fathead Minnows at 12 °C maintained comparatively low expression during winter. Johnny Darters were exposed to 4 °C to represent winter temperatures in the absence of thermal inputs, and 12, 16, and 20 °C to represent varying degrees of winter thermal pollution. Johnny Darters spawned during winter at 12, 16, and 20 °C but not at 4 °C. Johnny Darters at 4 °C subsequently spawned following a simulated spring period while those at 12, 16, and 20 °C did not. Our results indicate elevated winter water temperatures common in effluent-dominated streams can promote out-of-season spawning and that vitellogenin expression is a useful indicator of spawning readiness for fish exposed to elevated winter temperatures.

Lidar measurements of mesospheric temperature inversion at a low latitude

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siva Kumar, V.; Bhavani Kumar, Y.; Raghunath, K.; Rao, P. B.; Krishnaiah, M.; Mizutani, K.; Aoki, T.; Yasui, M.; Itabe, T.

2001-08-01

The Rayleigh lidar data collected on 119 nights from March 1998 to February 2000 were used to study the statistical characteristics of the low latitude mesospheric temperature inversion observed over Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E), India. The occurrence frequency of the inversion showed semiannual variation with maxima in the equinoxes and minima in the summer and winter, which was quite different from that reported for the mid-latitudes. The peak of the inversion layer was found to be confined to the height range of 73 to 79 km with the maximum occurrence centered around 76 km, with a weak seasonal dependence that fits well to an annual cycle with a maximum in June and a minimum in December. The magnitude of the temperature deviation associated with the inversion was found to be as high as 32 K, with the most probable value occurring at about 20 K. Its seasonal dependence seems to follow an annual cycle with a maximum in April and a minimum in October. The observed characteristics of the inversion layer are compared with that of the mid-latitudes and discussed in light of the current understanding of the source mechanisms.

Transient climate simulation from the Maunder Minimum to present day using prescribed changes in GHG, total/spectral solar irradiance and ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spangehl, Thomas; Cubasch, Ulrich; Schimanke, Semjon

A fully coupled AO-GCM including representation of the middle atmosphere is used for tran-sient simulation of climate from 1630 to 2000 AD. For better representation of changes in the UV/visible part of the solar spectrum an improved short-wave radiation scheme is implemented. The model is driven by changes in GHG concentrations, solar activity and volcanic eruptions. Solar variability is introduced via changes in total/spectral solar irradiance (TSI/SSI) and pre-scribed changes in stratospheric ozone. The secular trend in TSI is in the range of 0.1 percent increase from Maunder Minimum to present-day. Volcanic eruptions are represented via abrupt reduction in TSI. With the applied forcings the model does not simulate a clear reduction of the annual Northern Hemisphere (NH) mean near surface temperature during Maunder Minimum. By contrast the Dalton Minimum is characterized by distinct cooling and there is a significant raise of NH mean near surface temperature until the end of the 20th century. Focusing on the North Atlantic/European region the winter mean near surface temperature change pat-tern from Late Maunder Minimum (1675-1715) to present-day (1960-1990) reveals maximum warming over north-eastern Europe and cooling over the western North Atlantic with maxi-mum cooling west of Greenland. These changes can partly be explained by a shift of the NAO towards a more positive phase. The simulated changes in tropospheric circulation are discussed with special emphasize on the role of the solar forcing. Besides the stratospheric solar forcing which may affect NAO variability via downward propagation of the solar signal from the strato-sphere to the troposphere the magnitude of the secular trend in TSI might play a role. For the period from Maunder Minimum to present-day the simulation shows less near surface temper-ature increase especially over arctic regions when compared to simulations performed with the same model including the standard radiation scheme but applying larger TSI variations. The associated changes in lower tropospheric baroclinicity are more favourable for synoptic scale wave activity over the North Atlantic and might thereby contribute to strengthening of the NAO.

Nine year active layer thermal monitoring at Fildes Peninsula, King George Island, Maritime Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michel, Roberto; Andrade, André; Simas, Felipe; Silva, Tássio; Loureiro, Diego; Schaefer, Carlos

2017-04-01

Most global circulation models predict enhanced rates of climate change, particularly temperature increase, at higher latitudes witch are currently faced with rapid rates of regional climate change (Convey 2006, Vaughan et al. 2003, Quayle et al. 2002), Antarctic ecosystems are expected to show particular sensitivity and rapid responses (Freckman and Virginia 1997, Quayle et al. 2002, 2003). The active layer and permafrost are important components of the cryosphere due to their role in energy flux regulation and sensitivity to climate change (Kane et al., 2001; Smith and Brown, 2009). Compared with other regions of the globe, our understanding of Antarctic permafrost is poor, especially in relation to its thermal state and evolution, (Bockheim, 1995, Bockheim et al., 2008). The active layer monitoring site was installed in the summer of 2008, and consists of thermistors (accuracy ± 0.2 °C) arranged in a vertical array (Turbic Eutric Cryosol 60 m asl, 10.5 cm, 32.5 cm, 67.5 cm and 83.5 cm). All probes were connected to a Campbell Scientific CR 1000 data logger recording data at hourly intervals from March 1st 2008 until November 30th 2012. We calculated the thawing days (TD), freezing days (FD); thawing degree days (TDD) and freezing degree days (FDD); all according to Guglielmin et al. (2008). The active lawyer thickness was calculated as the 0 °C depth by extrapolating the thermal gradient from the two deepest temperature measurements (Guglielmin, 2006). The temperature at 10.5 cm reaches a maximum daily average (5.6 °C) in late January 2015, reaching a minimum (-9.6 °C) in in early August 2011, at 83.5 cm maximum daily average (0.6 °C) was reached in mid March 2009 and minimum (-5.5 °C) also in early August 2011. The years of 2008, 2009 and 2011 recorded thaw days at the bottom of the profile (62 and 49 in 2009 and 2011), and logged the highest soil moisture contents of the time series (62%, 59% and 63%). Seasonal variability of the active layer shows disparities between different years, especially in bottom most layer, where high summer temperatures trigger a increase in soil moisture content that can endure for several seasons. The winter of 2014 also deserves special attention, being the mildest winter recorded during the studied period; in July minimum monthly temperatures were -3.2 °C and -1.9 °C at 10.5 cm and 83.5 cm, it experienced 17 FD summing -0.61 FDD, average for the whole period was -7.5 °C, -3.9 °C, 27 FD and -55 FDD (2008 also had a mild winter but still hold 21 FD and -0,88 FDD at 83.5 cm in July). The summer of 2009 was the warmest facing 31 thawing days and summing 105 thawing degree days at 10.5 cm in January (28.7 thawing days and 66.3 thawing degree days average). The profile showed a increase in soil water content annual during warm summers, persisting for the following seasons, average is 44 % in 2008, 32 % in 2012 closing the time series with a annual average of 27 % in 2016, all values at 83.5 cm. Active layer thickness varied between 86 cm (max of 2015, March) and 117 cm (max of 2009, March). The active layer thermal regime over a 9 year period at Fildes Peninsula shows great variation between years, 2008, 2009 and 2011 presenting warm summers and 2014 being abnormally warm during Winter. Temperature fluctuations can affect the active layer in depth and the effects of warmer temperatures in the bottom of the profile can increase soil water content for several seasons.

Winter severity and phenology of spring emergence from the nest in freshwater turtles.

PubMed

Baker, Patrick Joseph; Iverson, John B; Lee, Richard E; Costanzo, Jon P

2010-07-01

Although many species of freshwater turtles emigrate to water soon after hatching, the offspring of some species overwinter on land and move to aquatic habitats in the following spring. Timing of emigration can affect the hatchlings' fitness, but the factors underlying phenology of nest emergence are incompletely understood. We tested the supposition that cold stress imposed during hibernation can influence the timing of nest emergence in three species of turtles in the central USA. In each year of the 6-year study, Chrysemys picta emerged in late March and early April and, on average, these hatchlings left their nests 2 weeks earlier than those of Graptemys geographica and 4 weeks earlier than those of Trachemys scripta. Emergence of conspecific hatchlings from different nests usually occurred over 3-7 weeks, but in some years lasted several additional weeks. Relatively few nests had siblings that emerged on the same day (i.e., synchronously); complete emergence of the typical sibling group required 1 to 2 weeks. In winter, subzero cold occurred with regularity in the nests of all species, though C. picta experienced the lowest temperatures owing to their shallower nests. However, for no species did emergence date or length of the emergence period correlate with winter minimum temperature and, at the level of the individual nest, neither did emergence synchrony or duration. Despite encountering lower temperatures, hatchlings of C. picta emigrated from their nests before those of sympatric species, suggesting that the fitness benefits of early emergence may lead to the improvement of cold-hardiness adaptations in northern populations of turtles.

Winter severity and phenology of spring emergence from the nest in freshwater turtles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, Patrick Joseph; Iverson, John B.; Lee, Richard E.; Costanzo, Jon P.

2010-07-01

Although many species of freshwater turtles emigrate to water soon after hatching, the offspring of some species overwinter on land and move to aquatic habitats in the following spring. Timing of emigration can affect the hatchlings’ fitness, but the factors underlying phenology of nest emergence are incompletely understood. We tested the supposition that cold stress imposed during hibernation can influence the timing of nest emergence in three species of turtles in the central USA. In each year of the 6-year study, Chrysemys picta emerged in late March and early April and, on average, these hatchlings left their nests 2 weeks earlier than those of Graptemys geographica and 4 weeks earlier than those of Trachemys scripta. Emergence of conspecific hatchlings from different nests usually occurred over 3-7 weeks, but in some years lasted several additional weeks. Relatively few nests had siblings that emerged on the same day (i.e., synchronously); complete emergence of the typical sibling group required 1 to 2 weeks. In winter, subzero cold occurred with regularity in the nests of all species, though C. picta experienced the lowest temperatures owing to their shallower nests. However, for no species did emergence date or length of the emergence period correlate with winter minimum temperature and, at the level of the individual nest, neither did emergence synchrony or duration. Despite encountering lower temperatures, hatchlings of C. picta emigrated from their nests before those of sympatric species, suggesting that the fitness benefits of early emergence may lead to the improvement of cold-hardiness adaptations in northern populations of turtles.

Plant cover, soil temperature, freeze, water stress, and evapotranspiration conditions. [Lower Rio Grande Valley Test Site: Weslaco, Texas; Falco Reservoir and the Gulf of Mexico

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wiegand, C. L.; Nixon, P. R.; Gausman, H. W.; Namken, L. N.; Leamer, R. W.; Richardson, A. J. (Principal Investigator)

1980-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. HCMM day/night coverage 12 hours apart cannot be obtained at 26 deg N latitude; nor have any pairs 36 hours apart been obtained. A day-IR scene and a night scene for two different dates were analyzed. A profile across the test site for the same latitude shows that the two profiles are near mirror images of each other over land surfaces and that the temperature of two large water bodies, Falcon Reservoir and the Gulf of Mexico, are nearly identical on two dates. During the time interval between overpasses, the vegetative cover remained static due to winter dormancy. The data suggest that day/night temperature differences measured weeks apart may yield meaningful information about the contrast between daytime maximum and nighttime minimum temperatures for a given site.

Decadal predictability of winter windstorm frequency in Eastern Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Höschel, Ines; Grieger, Jens; Ulbrich, Uwe

2017-04-01

Winter windstorms are one of the most impact relevant extreme-weather events in Europe. This study is focussed on windstorm frequency in Eastern Europe at multi-year time scale. Individual storms are identified by using 6-hourly 10m-wind-fields. The impact-oriented tracking algorithm is based on the exceedance of the local 98 percentile of wind speed and a minimum duration of 18 hours. Here, storm frequency is the number of 1000km-footprints of identified windstorms touching the location during extended boreal winter from October to March. The temporal development of annual storm frequencies in Eastern Europe shows variations on a six to fifteen years period. Higher than normal windstorm frequency occurred end of the 1950s and in beginning of the seventies, while lower than normal frequency were around 1960 and in the forties, for example. The correlation between bandpass filtered storm frequency and North Atlantic sea surface temperature shows a significant pattern with a positive correlation in the subtropical East Atlantic and significant negative correlations in the Gulfstream region. The relationship between these multi-year variations and predictability on decadal time scales is discussed. The resulting skill of winter wind storms in the German decadal prediction system MiKlip, based on the numerical earth system model MPI-ESM, will be presented.

The Yearly Variation in Fall-Winter Arctic Winter Vortex Descent

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schoeberl, Mark R.; Newman, Paul A.

1999-01-01

Using the change in HALOE methane profiles from early September to late March, we have estimated the minimum amount of diabatic descent within the polar which takes place during Arctic winter. The year to year variations are a result in the year to year variations in stratospheric wave activity which (1) modify the temperature of the vortex and thus the cooling rate; (2) reduce the apparent descent by mixing high amounts of methane into the vortex. The peak descent amounts from HALOE methane vary from l0km -14km near the arrival altitude of 25 km. Using a diabatic trajectory calculation, we compare forward and backward trajectories over the course of the winter using UKMO assimilated stratospheric data. The forward calculation agrees fairly well with the observed descent. The backward calculation appears to be unable to produce the observed amount of descent, but this is only an apparent effect due to the density decrease in parcels with altitude. Finally we show the results for unmixed descent experiments - where the parcels are fixed in latitude and longitude and allowed to descend based on the local cooling rate. Unmixed descent is found to always exceed mixed descent, because when normal parcel motion is included, the path average cooling is always less than the cooling at a fixed polar point.

Trees, History, and Isotopes - the Late Maunder Minimum (1675-1715) in the Pannonian Basin, Hungary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kazmer, M.; Demeny, A.; Grynaeus, A.; Racz, L.; Varkonyi, A.

2002-05-01

First results of a comprehensive study on climate change in the Pannonian Basin during the Late Maunder Minimum (1675-1715) are presented. The Pannonian Basin has continental climate, distinctly warm and dry in summer, cold in winter, unlike the Atlantic-type climate of Western Europe. Surrounded by the arc of the Carpathians, exposed to Atlantic, Mediterranean, and Siberian influences, the regional climate displays steep gradients. More than one tree-ring chronology for oak is being built, independent of the south German series. Rethly's rich database of historical sources has been assembled, and completed with recently published letters. Ring-width series are measured on oak, and skeleton plots are logged. Study of hydrogen isotope composition of tree rings is in progress. Tree-ring width faithfully reflects historical indices on spring (i.e. earlywood growth season) precipitation. Generally, precipitation - as shown both by indices and tree-ring width - was high and temperature low during the growth season in the first half of the LMM. The second half has seen a retardation in oak growth and an increase in spring temperature. The decades of the Late Maunder Minimum was a politically turbulent era: it saw the decline and fall of the Ottoman domination in Hungary, followed by a rebellion against Austrian rule, associated with disruption of national economy.

Long-term comparison of the climate extremes variability in different climate types located in coastal and inland regions of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghiami-Shamami, Fereshteh; Sabziparvar, Ali Akbar; Shinoda, Seirou

2018-06-01

The present study examined annually and seasonally trends in climate-based and location-based indices after detection of artificial change points and application of homogenization. Thirteen temperature and eight precipitation indices were generated at 27 meteorological stations over Iran during 1961-2012. The Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator were applied for trend detection. Results revealed that almost all indices based on minimum temperature followed warmer conditions. Indicators based on minimum temperature showed less consistency with more cold and less warm events. Climate-based results for all extremes indicated semi-arid climate had the most warming events. Moreover, based on location-based results, inland areas showed the most signs of warming. Indices based on precipitation exhibited a negative trend in warm seasons, with the most changes in coastal areas and inland, respectively. Results provided evidence of warming and drying since the 1990s. Changes in precipitation indices were much weaker and less spatially coherent. Summer was found to be the most sensitive season, in comparison with winter. For arid and semi-arid regions, by increasing the latitude, less warm events occurred, while increasing the longitude led to more warming events. Overall, Iran is dominated by a significant increase in warm events, especially minimum temperature-based indices (nighttime). This result, in addition to fewer precipitation events, suggests a generally dryer regime for the future, which is more evident in the warm season of semi-arid sites. The results could provide beneficial references for water resources and eco-environmental policymakers.

Development and testing of transfer functions for generating quantitative climatic estimates from Australian pollen data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, Ellyn J.; van der Kaars, Sander

2006-10-01

We review attempts to derive quantitative climatic estimates from Australian pollen data, including the climatic envelope, climatic indicator and modern analogue approaches, and outline the need to pursue alternatives for use as input to, or validation of, simulations by models of past, present and future climate patterns. To this end, we have constructed and tested modern pollen-climate transfer functions for mainland southeastern Australia and Tasmania using the existing southeastern Australian pollen database and for northern Australia using a new pollen database we are developing. After testing for statistical significance, 11 parameters were selected for mainland southeastern Australia, seven for Tasmania and six for northern Australia. The functions are based on weighted-averaging partial least squares regression and their predictive ability evaluated against modern observational climate data using leave-one-out cross-validation. Functions for summer, annual and winter rainfall and temperatures are most robust for southeastern Australia, while in Tasmania functions for minimum temperature of the coldest period, mean winter and mean annual temperature are the most reliable. In northern Australia, annual and summer rainfall and annual and summer moisture indexes are the strongest. The validation of all functions means all can be applied to Quaternary pollen records from these three areas with confidence. Copyright

The effect of extreme cold temperatures on the risk of death in the two major Portuguese cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antunes, Liliana; Silva, Susana Pereira; Marques, Jorge; Nunes, Baltazar; Antunes, Sílvia

2017-01-01

It is well known that meteorological conditions influence the comfort and human health. Southern European countries, including Portugal, show the highest mortality rates during winter, but the effects of extreme cold temperatures in Portugal have never been estimated. The objective of this study was the estimation of the effect of extreme cold temperatures on the risk of death in Lisbon and Oporto, aiming the production of scientific evidence for the development of a real-time health warning system. Poisson regression models combined with distributed lag non-linear models were applied to assess the exposure-response relation and lag patterns of the association between minimum temperature and all-causes mortality and between minimum temperature and circulatory and respiratory system diseases mortality from 1992 to 2012, stratified by age, for the period from November to March. The analysis was adjusted for over dispersion and population size, for the confounding effect of influenza epidemics and controlled for long-term trend, seasonality and day of the week. Results showed that the effect of cold temperatures in mortality was not immediate, presenting a 1-2-day delay, reaching maximum increased risk of death after 6-7 days and lasting up to 20-28 days. The overall effect was generally higher and more persistent in Lisbon than in Oporto, particularly for circulatory and respiratory mortality and for the elderly. Exposure to cold temperatures is an important public health problem for a relevant part of the Portuguese population, in particular in Lisbon.

Seasonal dynamics of VLF signals amplitude Novosibirsk radio station and mesopause region temperature in 2009-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozlov, V. I.; Korsakov, A. A.; Ammosov, P. P.; Ammosova, A. M.; Gavrilyeva, G. A.; Koltovskoi, I. I.

2017-11-01

Dynamics of seasonal variations in the amplitude of the VLF radio signal received in Yakutsk from the navigation station near Novosibirsk and the radiation intensity in the wavelength range from 835 to 853 nm, where the P-branches of the OH band (6-2) are located, is present. The radiation variations give information about mesopause region measured at the Maimaga station (130 km from Yakutsk). Observation period from 2009 to 2015 covers period with minimum and maximum solar activity (solar flux F10.7). In the seasonal dynamics of the VLF amplitude signals and the mesopause temperature are observed annual, semiannual and third-annual variations, increasing during nighttime for VLF signals. The mesopause temperature and the VLF signal increase with increasing solar flux F10.7 in winter.

Old Growth Conifer Watersheds in the Western Cascades, Oregon: Sentinels of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miles, K. M.

2011-12-01

In the Pacific Northwest, where the majority of precipitation falls during the winter, mountain snowpacks provide an important source of streamflow during the dry summer months when water demands are frequently highest. Increasing temperatures associated with climate change are expected to result in a decline in winter snowpacks in western North America, earlier snowmelt, and subsequently a shift in the timing of streamflows, with an increasing fraction of streamflows occurring earlier in the water year and drier conditions during the summer. Long-term records from headwater watersheds in old growth conifer forest at the H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest (HJ Andrews), Oregon, provide the opportunity to examine changes in climate, vegetation, and streamflow. Continuous streamflow records have been collected since 1953, 1964, and 1969 from three small (8.5-60 ha) watersheds (WS2, WS8, and WS9). Over the 40- to 50-year period of study, late winter to early summer monthly average minimum temperatures have increased by 1-2°C, and spring snow water equivalent at a nearby Snotel site has declined, but monthly precipitation has remained unchanged. Spring runoff ratios have declined in by amounts equivalent to 0.59-2.45 mm day-1 at WS2, WS8, and WS9, which are comparable to estimated rates of stand-level transpiration from trees in these watersheds. However, winter runoff ratios have not changed significantly at either WS2 or WS9, and have actually decreased at WS8 by 2.43 mm day-1 over the period of record. Furthermore, summer runoff ratios have not changed significantly at either WS8 or WS9, and have increased at WS2 by 0.34 mm day-1 over the period of record. These findings suggest that warming temperatures have resulted in a reduction in spring snowpacks and an earlier onset of evapotranspiration in the spring when soil moisture is abundant, but physiological responses of these conifer forests to water stress and water surplus may mitigate or exceed the expression of a climate warming effect on winter or summer streamflow.

Titan's Atmospheric Dynamics and Meteorology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Flasar, F. M.; Baines, K. H.; Bird, M. K.; Tokano, T.; West, R. A.

2008-01-01

Titan, after Venus, is the second example of an atmosphere with a global cyclostrophic circulation in the solar system, but a circulation that has a strong seasonal modulation in the middle atmosphere. Direct measurement of Titan's winds, particularly observations tracking the Huygens probe at 10degS, indicate that the zonal winds are generally in the sense of the satellites rotation. They become cyclostrophic approx. 35 km above the surface and generally increase with altitude, with the exception of a sharp minimum centered near 75 km, where the wind velocity decreases to nearly zero. Zonal winds derived from the temperature field retrieved from Cassini measurements, using the thermal wind equation, indicate a strong winter circumpolar vortex, with maximum winds at mid northern latitudes of 190 ms-' near 300 km. Above this level, the vortex decays. Curiously, the zonal winds and temperatures are symmetric about a pole that is offset from the surface pole by approx.4 degrees. The cause of this is not well understood, but it may reflect the response of a cyclostrophic circulation to the offset between the equator, where the distance to the rotation axis is greatest, and the solar equator. The mean meridional circulation can be inferred from the temperature field and the meridional distribution of organic molecules and condensates and hazes. Both the warm temperatures in the north polar region near 400 km and the enhanced concentration of several organic molecules suggests subsidence there during winter and early spring. Stratospheric condensates are localized at high northern latitudes, with a sharp cut-off near 50degN. Titan's winter polar vortex appears to share many of the same characteristics of winter vortices on Earth-the ozone holes. Global mapping of temperatures, winds, and composition in he troposphere, by contrast, is incomplete. The few suitable discrete clouds that have bee found for tracking indicate smaller velocities than aloft, consistent with the Huygens measurements. At low latitudes the zonal winds near the surface appear not to be westward as on Earth, but eastward. Because the net zonal-mean time-averaged torq exerted by the surface on the atmosphere should vanish, this implies westward flow o part of the surface; the question is where. The latitude contrast in tropospheric temperatures, deduced from radio occultations at low, mid, and high latitudes, is small approx.5 K at the tropopause and approx.3 K at the surface.

European seasonal mortality and influenza incidence due to winter temperature variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballester, Joan; Rodó, Xavier; Robine, Jean-Marie; Herrmann, François Richard

2016-10-01

Recent studies have vividly emphasized the lack of consensus on the degree of vulnerability (see ref. ) of European societies to current and future winter temperatures. Here we consider several climate factors, influenza incidence and daily numbers of deaths to characterize the relationship between winter temperature and mortality in a very large ensemble of European regions representing more than 400 million people. Analyses highlight the strong association between the year-to-year fluctuations in winter mean temperature and mortality, with higher seasonal cases during harsh winters, in all of the countries except the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Belgium. This spatial distribution contrasts with the well-documented latitudinal orientation of the dependency between daily temperature and mortality within the season. A theoretical framework is proposed to reconcile the apparent contradictions between recent studies, offering an interpretation to regional differences in the vulnerability to daily, seasonal and long-term winter temperature variability. Despite the lack of a strong year-to-year association between winter mean values in some countries, it can be concluded that warmer winters will contribute to the decrease in winter mortality everywhere in Europe.

Plasticity in body temperature and metabolic capacity sustains winter activity in a small endotherm (Rattus fuscipes).

PubMed

Glanville, Elsa J; Seebacher, Frank

2010-03-01

Small mammals that remain active throughout the year at a constant body temperature have a much greater energy and food requirement in winter. Lower body temperatures in winter may offset the increased energetic cost of remaining active in the cold, if cellular metabolism is not constrained by a negative thermodynamic effect. We aimed to determine whether variable body temperatures can be advantageous for small endotherms by testing the hypothesis that body temperature fluctuates seasonally in a wild rat (Rattus fuscipes); conferring an energy saving and reducing food requirements during resource restricted winter. Additionally we tested whether changes in body temperature affected tissue specific metabolic capacity. Winter acclimatized rats had significantly lower body temperatures and thicker fur than summer acclimatized rats. Mitochondrial oxygen consumption and the activity of enzymes that control oxidative (citrate synthase, cytochrome c-oxidase) and anaerobic (lactate dehydrogenase) metabolism were elevated in winter and were not negatively affected by the lower body temperature. Energy transfer modeling showed that lower body temperatures in winter combined with increased fur thickness to confer a 25 kJ day(-1) energy saving, with up to 50% owing to reduced body temperature alone. We show that phenotypic plasticity at multiple levels of organization is an important component of the response of a small endotherm to winter. Mitochondrial function compensates for lower winter body temperatures, buffering metabolic heat production capacity. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Upper lethal temperatures in three cold-tolerant insects are higher in winter than in summer.

PubMed

Vu, Henry M; Duman, John G

2017-08-01

Upper lethal temperatures (ULTs) of cold-adapted insect species in winter have not been previously examined. We anticipated that as the lower lethal temperatures (LLTs) decreased (by 20-30°C) with the onset of winter, the ULTs would also decrease accordingly. Consequently, given the recent increases in winter freeze-thaw cycles and warmer winters due to climate change, it became of interest to determine whether ambient temperatures during thaws were approaching ULTs during the cold seasons. However, beetle Dendroides canadensis (Coleoptera: Pyrochroidae) larvae had higher 24 and 48 h ULT 50 (the temperature at which 50% mortality occurred) in winter than in summer. The 24 and 48 h ULT 50 for D. canadensis in winter were 40.9 and 38.7°C, respectively. For D. canadensis in summer, the 24 and 48 h ULT 50 were 36.7 and 36.4°C. During the transition periods of spring and autumn, the 24 h ULT 50 was 37.3 and 38.5°C, respectively. While D. canadensis in winter had a 24 h LT 50 range between LLT and ULT of 64°C, the summer range was only 41°C. Additionally, larvae of the beetle Cucujus clavipes clavipes (Coleoptera: Cucujidae) and the cranefly Tipula trivittata (Diptera: Tipulidae) also had higher ULTs in winter than in summer. This unexpected phenomenon of increased temperature survivorship at both lower and higher temperatures in the winter compared with that in the summer has not been previously documented. With the decreased high temperature tolerance as the season progresses from winter to summer, it was observed that environmental temperatures are closest to upper lethal temperatures in spring. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Snow cover and temperature relationships in North America and Eurasia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Foster, J.; Owe, M.; Rango, A.

1983-01-01

In this study the snow cover extent during the autumn months in both North America and Eurasia has been related to the ensuing winter temperature as measured at several locations near the center of each continent. The relationship between autumn snow cover and the ensuing winter temperatures was found to be much better for Eurasia than for North America. For Eurasia the average snow cover extent during the autumn explained as much as 52 percent of the variance in the winter (December-February) temperatures compared to only 12 percent for North America. However, when the average winter snow cover was correlated with the average winter temperature it was found that the relationship was better for North America than for Eurasia. As much as 46 percent of the variance in the winter temperature was explained by the winter snow cover in North America compared to only 12 percent in Eurasia.

Climate influences on whitebark pine mortality from mountain pine beetle in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.

PubMed

Buotte, Polly C; Hicke, Jeffrey A; Preisler, Haiganoush K; Abatzoglou, John T; Raffa, Kenneth F; Logan, Jesse A

2016-12-01

Extensive mortality of whitebark pine, beginning in the early to mid-2000s, occurred in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) of the western USA, primarily from mountain pine beetle but also from other threats such as white pine blister rust. The climatic drivers of this recent mortality and the potential for future whitebark pine mortality from mountain pine beetle are not well understood, yet are important considerations in whether to list whitebark pine as a threatened or endangered species. We sought to increase the understanding of climate influences on mountain pine beetle outbreaks in whitebark pine forests, which are less well understood than in lodgepole pine, by quantifying climate-beetle relationships, analyzing climate influences during the recent outbreak, and estimating the suitability of future climate for beetle outbreaks. We developed a statistical model of the probability of whitebark pine mortality in the GYE that included temperature effects on beetle development and survival, precipitation effects on host tree condition, beetle population size, and stand characteristics. Estimated probability of whitebark pine mortality increased with higher winter minimum temperature, indicating greater beetle winter survival; higher fall temperature, indicating synchronous beetle emergence; lower two-year summer precipitation, indicating increased potential for host tree stress; increasing beetle populations; stand age; and increasing percent composition of whitebark pine within a stand. The recent outbreak occurred during a period of higher-than-normal regional winter temperatures, suitable fall temperatures, and low summer precipitation. In contrast to lodgepole pine systems, area with mortality was linked to precipitation variability even at high beetle populations. Projections from climate models indicate future climate conditions will likely provide favorable conditions for beetle outbreaks within nearly all current whitebark pine habitat in the GYE by the middle of this century. Therefore, when surviving and regenerating trees reach ages suitable for beetle attack, there is strong potential for continued whitebark pine mortality due to mountain pine beetle. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Nocturnal cooling in a very shallow cold air pool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rakovec, Jože; Skok, Gregor; Žabkar, Rahela; Žagar, Nedjeljka

2015-04-01

Cold air pools (CAPs) may develop during nights in very shallow depressions. The depth of the stagnant air within a CAP influences the process of the cooling of nocturnal air and the resulting minimum temperature. A seven-month long field experiment was performed during winter 2013/2014 in an orchard near Kr\\vsko, Slovenia, located inside a very shallow basin only a few meters deep and approximately 500 m wide. Two locations at different elevations inside the basin were selected for measurement. The results showed that the nights (in terms of cooling) can be classified into three main categories; nights with overcast skies and weak cooling, windy nights with clear sky and strong cooling but with no difference in temperatures between locations inside the basin, and calm nights with even stronger cooling and significant temperature differences between locations inside the basin. On calm nights with clear skies, the difference at two measuring sites inside the basin can be up to 5 °C but the presence of even weak winds can cause sufficient turbulent mixing to negate any difference in temperature. To better understand the cooling process on calm, clear nights, we developed a simple 1-D thermodynamic conceptual model focusing on a very shallow CAP. The model has 5-layers (including two air layers representing air inside the CAP), and an analytical solution was obtained for the equilibrium temperatures. Sensitivity analysis of the model was performed. As expected, a larger soil heat conductivity or higher temperature in the ground increases the morning minimum temperatures. An increase in temperature of the atmosphere also increases the simulated minimum temperatures, while the temperature difference between the higher and lower locations remains almost the same. An increase in atmosphere humidity also increases the modelled equilibrium temperatures, while an increase of the humidity of the air inside the CAP results in lower equilibrium temperatures. The humidity of the air within the CAP and that of the free atmosphere strongly influence the differences in equilibrium temperatures at higher and lower locations. The more humid the air, the stronger the cooling at the lower location compared to the higher location.

Physiological ecology of overwintering in the hatchling painted turtle: multiple-scale variation in response to environmental stress.

PubMed

Costanzo, Jon P; Dinkelacker, Stephen A; Iverson, John B; Lee, Richard E

2004-01-01

We integrated field and laboratory studies in an investigation of water balance, energy use, and mechanisms of cold-hardiness in hatchling painted turtles (Chrysemys picta) indigenous to west-central Nebraska (Chrysemys picta bellii) and northern Indiana (Chrysemys picta marginata) during the winters of 1999-2000 and 2000-2001. We examined 184 nests, 80 of which provided the hatchlings (n=580) and/or samples of soil used in laboratory analyses. Whereas winter 1999-2000 was relatively dry and mild, the following winter was wet and cold; serendipitously, the contrast illuminated a marked plasticity in physiological response to environmental stress. Physiological and cold-hardiness responses of turtles also varied between study locales, largely owing to differences in precipitation and edaphics and the lower prevailing and minimum nest temperatures (to -13.2 degrees C) encountered by Nebraska turtles. In Nebraska, winter mortality occurred within 12.5% (1999-2000) and 42.3% (2000-2001) of the sampled nests; no turtles died in the Indiana nests. Laboratory studies of the mechanisms of cold-hardiness used by hatchling C. picta showed that resistance to inoculative freezing and capacity for freeze tolerance increased as winter approached. However, the level of inoculation resistance strongly depended on the physical characteristics of nest soil, as well as its moisture content, which varied seasonally. Risk of inoculative freezing (and mortality) was greatest in midwinter when nest temperatures were lowest and soil moisture and activity of constituent organic ice nuclei were highest. Water balance in overwintering hatchlings was closely linked to dynamics of precipitation and soil moisture, whereas energy use and the size of the energy reserve available to hatchlings in spring depended on the winter thermal regime. Acute chilling resulted in hyperglycemia and hyperlactemia, which persisted throughout winter; this response may be cryoprotective. Some physiological characteristics and cold-hardiness attributes varied between years, between study sites, among nests at the same site, and among siblings sharing nests. Such variation may reflect adaptive phenotypic plasticity, maternal or paternal influence on an individual's response to environmental challenge, or a combination of these factors. Some evidence suggests that life-history traits, such as clutch size and body size, have been shaped by constraints imposed by the harsh winter environment.

Modelling short-term variability in carbon and water exchange in a temperate Scots pine forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vermeulen, M. H.; Kruijt, B. J.; Hickler, T.; Kabat, P.

2015-02-01

Vegetation - atmosphere carbon and water exchange at one particular site can strongly vary from year to year, and understanding this interannual variability in carbon and water exchange (IAVcw) is a critical factor in projecting future ecosystem changes. However, the mechanisms driving this IAVcw are not well understood. We used data on carbon and water fluxes from a multi-year Eddy Covariance study (1997-2009) in a Dutch Scots pine forest and forced a process-based ecosystem model (LPJ-GUESS) with local data to, firstly, test whether the model can explain IAVcw and seasonal carbon and water exchange from direct environmental factors only. Initial model runs showed low correlations with estimated annual gross primary productivity (GPP) and annual actual evapotranspiration (AET), while monthly and daily fluxes showed high correlations. The model underestimated GPP and AET during winter and drought events. Secondly, we adapted the temperature inhibition function of photosynthesis to account for the observation that at this particular site, trees continue to assimilate at very low atmospheric temperatures (up to daily averages of -10 °C), resulting in a net carbon sink in winter. While we were able to improve daily and monthly simulations during winter by lowering the modelled minimum temperature threshold for photosynthesis, this did not increase explained IAVcw at the site. Thirdly, we implemented three alternative hypotheses concerning water uptake by plants in order to test which one best corresponds with the data. In particular, we analyse the effects during the 2003 heatwave. These simulations revealed a strong sensitivity of the modelled fluxes during dry and warm conditions, but no single formulation was consistently superior in reproducing the data for all time scales and the overall model-data match for IAVcw could not be improved. Most probably access to deep soil water leads to higher AET and GPP simulated during the heat wave of 2003. We conclude that photosynthesis at lower temperatures than assumed in most models can be important for winter carbon and water fluxes in pine forests. Furthermore, details of the model representations of water uptake, which are often overlooked, need further attention, and deep water access should be treated explicitly.

Modelling short-term variability in carbon and water exchange in a temperate Scots pine forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vermeulen, M. H.; Kruijt, B. J.; Hickler, T.; Kabat, P.

2015-07-01

The vegetation-atmosphere carbon and water exchange at one particular site can strongly vary from year to year, and understanding this interannual variability in carbon and water exchange (IAVcw) is a critical factor in projecting future ecosystem changes. However, the mechanisms driving this IAVcw are not well understood. We used data on carbon and water fluxes from a multi-year eddy covariance study (1997-2009) in a Dutch Scots pine forest and forced a process-based ecosystem model (Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator; LPJ-GUESS) with local data to, firstly, test whether the model can explain IAVcw and seasonal carbon and water exchange from direct environmental factors only. Initial model runs showed low correlations with estimated annual gross primary productivity (GPP) and annual actual evapotranspiration (AET), while monthly and daily fluxes showed high correlations. The model underestimated GPP and AET during winter and drought events. Secondly, we adapted the temperature inhibition function of photosynthesis to account for the observation that at this particular site, trees continue to assimilate at very low atmospheric temperatures (up to daily averages of -10 °C), resulting in a net carbon sink in winter. While we were able to improve daily and monthly simulations during winter by lowering the modelled minimum temperature threshold for photosynthesis, this did not increase explained IAVcw at the site. Thirdly, we implemented three alternative hypotheses concerning water uptake by plants in order to test which one best corresponds with the data. In particular, we analyse the effects during the 2003 heatwave. These simulations revealed a strong sensitivity of the modelled fluxes during dry and warm conditions, but no single formulation was consistently superior in reproducing the data for all timescales and the overall model-data match for IAVcw could not be improved. Most probably access to deep soil water leads to higher AET and GPP simulated during the heatwave of 2003. We conclude that photosynthesis at lower temperatures than assumed in most models can be important for winter carbon and water fluxes in pine forests. Furthermore, details of the model representations of water uptake, which are often overlooked, need further attention, and deep water access should be treated explicitly.

Daily temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region derived from the BaltAn65+ reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toll, Velle; Post, Piia

2018-04-01

Daily 2-m temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region for the time period of 1965-2005 is studied based on data from the BaltAn65 + high resolution atmospheric reanalysis. Moreover, the ability of regional reanalysis to capture extremes is analysed by comparing the reanalysis data to gridded observations. The shortcomings in the simulation of the minimum temperatures over the northern part of the region and in the simulation of the extreme precipitation over the Scandinavian mountains in the BaltAn65+ reanalysis data are detected and analysed. Temporal trends in the temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region, with the largest increases in temperature and precipitation in winter, are detected based on both gridded observations and the BaltAn65+ reanalysis data. However, the reanalysis is not able to capture all of the regional trends in the extremes in the observations due to the shortcomings in the simulation of the extremes.

Spatio-temporal Trends of Climate Variability in North Carolina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad

Climatic trends in spatial and temporal variability of maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), mean temperature (Tmean) and precipitation were evaluated for 249 ground-based stations in North Carolina for 1950-2009. The Mann-Kendall (MK), the Theil-Sen Approach (TSA) and the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) tests were applied to quantify the significance of trend, magnitude of trend and the trend shift, respectively. The lag-1 serial correlation and double mass curve techniques were used to address the data independency and homogeneity. The pre-whitening technique was used to eliminate the effect of auto correlation of the data series. The difference between minimum and maximum temperatures, and so the diurnal temperature range (DTR), at some stations was found to be decreasing on both an annual and a seasonal basis, with an overall increasing trend in the mean temperature. For precipitation, a statewide increasing trend in fall (highest in November) and decreasing trend in winter (highest in February) were detected. No pronounced increasing/decreasing trends were detected in annual, spring, and summer precipitation time series. Trend analysis on a spatial scale (for three physiographic regions: mountain, piedmont and coastal) revealed mixed results. Coastal zone exhibited increasing mean temperature (warming) trend as compared to other locations whereas mountain zone showed decreasing trend (cooling). Three main moisture components (precipitation, total cloud cover, and soil moisture) and the two major atmospheric circulation modes (North Atlantic Oscillation and Southern Oscillation) were used for correlative analysis purposes with the temperature (specifically with DTR) and precipitation trends. It appears that the moisture components are associated with DTR more than the circulation modes in North Carolina.

Statistical inhomogeneity of dates of sudden stratospheric warmings in the wintertime northern hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savenkova, E. N.; Gavrilov, N. M.; Pogoreltsev, A. I.; Manuilova, R. O.

2017-05-01

Using the data of meteorological information reanalysis, a statistical analysis of dates of the main sudden stratospheric warmings observed in 1958-2014 has been performed and their inhomogeneous distribution in winter months with maximums in the beginning of January, from the end of January to the beginning of February, and in the end of February has been shown. To explain these regularities, a climatological analysis of variations in the amplitudes and vertical components of Eliassen-Palm fluxes created by large-scale planetary waves (PWs), as well as of zonal-mean winds and deviations of temperature from their winter-average values in high northern latitudes at heights of up to 50 km from the surface has been carried out using the 20-year (1995-2014) collection of daily meteorological information from the UK Met Office database. During the aforementioned intervals of observing more frequent sudden stratospheric warmings, climatological maximums of temperature perturbations, local minimums of eastward winds, and local maximums of the amplitude and Eliassen-Palm fluxes of PWs with a zonal wavenumber of 1 in the high-latitude northern stratosphere were found. Distinctions between atmospheric characteristics averaged over two last decades have been revealed.

Dynamics of Weight Change and Temperature of Apis mellifera (Hymenoptera: Apidae) Colonies in a Wintering Building With Controlled Temperature.

PubMed

Stalidzans, E; Zacepins, A; Kviesis, A; Brusbardis, V; Meitalovs, J; Paura, L; Bulipopa, N; Liepniece, M

2017-02-01

Honey bee wintering in a wintering building (indoors) with controlled microclimate is used in some cold regions to minimize colony losses due to the hard weather conditions. The behavior and possible state of bee colonies in a dark room, isolated from natural environment during winter season, was studied by indirect temperature measurements to analyze the expression of their annual rhythm when it is not affected by ambient temperature, rain, snow, wind, and daylight. Thus, the observed behavior in the wintering building is initiated solely by bee colony internal processes. Experiments were carried out to determine the dynamics of temperature above the upper hive body and weight dynamics of indoors and outdoors wintered honey bee colonies and their brood-rearing performance in spring. We found significantly lower honey consumption-related weight loss of indoor wintered colonies compared with outdoor colonies, while no significant difference in the amount of open or sealed brood was found, suggesting that wintering building saves food and physiological resources without an impact on colony activity in spring. Indoor wintered colonies, with or without thermal insulation, did not have significant differences in food consumption and brood rearing in spring. The thermal behavior and weight dynamics of all experimental groups has changed in the middle of February possibly due to increased brood-rearing activity. Temperature measurement above the upper hive body is a convenient remote monitoring method of wintering process. Predictability of food consumption in a wintering building, with constant temperature, enables wintering without oversupply of wintering honey. © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

European seasonal mortality and influenza incidence due to winter temperature variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodó, X.; Ballester, J.; Robine, J. M.; Herrmann, F. R.

2017-12-01

Recent studies have vividly emphasized the lack of consensus on the degree of vulnerability (sensu IPCC) of European societies to current and future winter temperatures. Here we consider several climate factors, influenza incidence and daily numbers of deaths to characterize the relationship between winter temperature and mortality in a very large ensemble of European regions representing more than 400 million people. Analyses highlight the strong association between the year-to-year fluctuations in winter mean temperature and mortality, with higher seasonal cases during harsh winters, in all of the countries except the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Belgium. This spatial distribution contrasts with the well-documented latitudinal orientation of the dependency between daily temperature and mortality within the season. A theoretical framework is proposed to reconcile the apparent contradictions between recent studies, offering an interpretation to regional differences in the vulnerability to daily, seasonal and long-term winter temperature variability. Despite the lack of a strong year-to-year association between winter mean values in some countries, it can be concluded that warmer winters will contribute to the decrease in winter mortality everywhere in Europe. More information in Ballester J, et al. (2016) Nature Climate Change 6, 927-930, doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE3070.

Mars' Annular Polar Vortices and their Response to Atmospheric Dust Opacity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guzewich, S.; Waugh, D.; Toigo, A. D.

2016-12-01

The potential vorticity structure of the martian polar vortices is distinct from Earth's stratospheric or tropospheric vortices. Rather than exhibiting monotonically increasing potential vorticity toward the geographic pole, as on Earth, the martian fall and winter polar vortices are annular with the potential vorticity maximum situated off the pole and a local minimum in potential vorticity at the pole. Using the MarsWRF general circulation model (GCM), we perform a series of simulations to examine the source of this annular structure. We find that latent heat exchange from the formation of CO2 ice aerosols within the vortex, in a region very near the geographic pole, destroys potential vorticity and creates the annular structure. Furthermore, we describe Mars Climate Sounder and Thermal Emission Spectrometer observations of "transient vortex warming" events, where the air inside the northern hemisphere winter polar vortex is briefly warmed. During the Mars Year 28 (2007) global dust storm, the temperature inside the vortex increased by 70 K and dust directly entered the vortex. Using additional GCM simulations, we diagnose the dynamical changes associated with these transient vortex warming events and find that poleward expansion of the descending branch of the meridional overturning circulation during periods of increased dust opacity disrupts the northern hemisphere winter polar vortex. These increased temperatures also suppress CO2 condensation at the pole, creating a more Earth-like polar vortex where potential vorticity is maximized near the geographic pole.

Evaluation of the ASOS impact on climatic normals and assessment of variable-length time periods in calculation of normals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kauffman, Chad Matthew

The temperature and precipitation that describe the norm of daily, monthly, and seasonal climate conditions are ``climate normals.'' They are usually calculated based on climate data covering a 30-year period, and updated in every 10 years. The next update will take place in year 2001. Because of the advent of the Automated Surface Observations Systems (ASOS) beginning in early 1990s and recognized temperature bias between ASOS and the conventional temperature sensors there is an uncertainty of how the ASOS data should be used to calculate the 1971-2000 temperature normal. This study examined the uncertainty and offered a method to minimize it. It showed that the ASOS bias has a measurable impact on the new 30-year temperature normal. The impact varies among stations and climate regions. Some stations with a cooling trend in ASOS temperature have a cooler normal for their temperature, while others with a warming trend have a warmer normal for temperature. These quantitative evaluations of ASOS effect for stations and regions can be used to reduce ASOS bias in temperature normals. This study also evaluated temperature normals for different length periods and compared them to the 30-year normal. It showed that the difference between the normals, is smaller in maritime climate than in continental temperate climate. In the former, the six- year normal describes a similar temperature variation as the 30-year normal does. In the latter, the 18-year normal starts to resemble the temperature variation that the 30-year normal describes. These results provide a theoretical basis for applying different normals in different regions. The study further compared temperature normal for different periods and identified a seasonal shift in climate change in the southwestern U.S. where the summer maximum temperature has shifted to a late summer month and the winter minimum temperature shifted to an early winter month in the past 30 years.

Projected changes in rainfall and temperature over homogeneous regions of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patwardhan, Savita; Kulkarni, Ashwini; Rao, K. Koteswara

2018-01-01

The impact of climate change on the characteristics of seasonal maximum and minimum temperature and seasonal summer monsoon rainfall is assessed over five homogeneous regions of India using a high-resolution regional climate model. Providing REgional Climate for Climate Studies (PRECIS) is developed at Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK. The model simulations are carried out over South Asian domain for the continuous period of 1961-2098 at 50-km horizontal resolution. Here, three simulations from a 17-member perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) produced using HadCM3 under the Quantifying Model Uncertainties in Model Predictions (QUMP) project of Hadley Centre, Met. Office, UK, have been used as lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) for the 138-year simulations of the regional climate model under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario. The projections indicate the increase in the summer monsoon (June through September) rainfall over all the homogeneous regions (15 to 19%) except peninsular India (around 5%). There may be marginal change in the frequency of medium and heavy rainfall events (>20 mm) towards the end of the present century. The analysis over five homogeneous regions indicates that the mean maximum surface air temperatures for the pre-monsoon season (March-April-May) as well as the mean minimum surface air temperature for winter season (January-February) may be warmer by around 4 °C towards the end of the twenty-first century.

Effects of Winter Climate Change on Plant and Soil Ecology of Cryoturbated Non-Sorted Circles Tundra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monteux, S.; Krab, E. J.; Rönnefarth, J.; Becher, M.; Blume-Werry, G.; Kreyling, J.; Keuper, F.; Klaminder, J.; Kobayashi, M.; Lundin, E. J.; Milbau, A.; Teuber, L. M.; Weedon, J.; Dorrepaal, E.

2014-12-01

Cryoturbation is the movement of soil particles through repeated freeze-thaw events, resulting in the burial of large amounts of soil organic carbon (SOC). Non-sorted circles are a common type of cryoturbated ground in arctic and alpine areas underlain by permafrost. They appear as sparsely vegetated areas surrounded by denser tundra vegetation. Climate change in arctic environments will likely increase winter precipitation in large parts of the Arctic in Europe, Asia and America, resulting in deeper snow cover. Snow is a good thermal insulator and modifications in freezing intensity and freeze-thaw cycles are therefore likely, which could affect the burial of organic matter. Moreover, vegetation, soil fauna and soil microbial communities, which are important drivers of SOC dynamics, may be impacted directly by the altered winter conditions and indirectly by reduced cryoturbation. We aimed to investigate this, and therefore subjected non-sorted circles in North-Swedish subarctic alpine tundra to two years of increased thermal insulation in winter and spring, using snow fences or fibre cloth (Figure 1). Both snow fences and fibre cloth manipulations increased surface soil temperatures, especially daily minimum temperatures, and strongly reduced freeze-thaw frequency. We compared the impacts of these manipulations on plant performance, soil chemistry, soil fauna and soil microbial communities between the centre of the circles and the dense tundra heath just outside. Directly after snowmelt, the extra winter insulation decreased plant leaf damage, both in the centre and in adjacent tundra, but responses differed between species. We will further present the responses of plant phenology and growth, soil pH and dissolved organic carbon content, soil fauna activity, Collembola community composition and body size distribution, as well as fungal and bacterial diversity profiles and functional groups abundance. We expect that winter warming due to increased snow cover and its effects on cryoturbation will stimulate the biotic components of non-sorted circles, but may change the interactions between organisms at different trophic levels of this ecosystem. The resulting new balance between increased productivity and decomposer activity might have large implications for this important carbon pool.

Effect of snow cover on soil frost penetration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rožnovský, Jaroslav; Brzezina, Jáchym

2017-12-01

Snow cover occurrence affects wintering and lives of organisms because it has a significant effect on soil frost penetration. An analysis of the dependence of soil frost penetration and snow depth between November and March was performed using data from 12 automated climatological stations located in Southern Moravia, with a minimum period of measurement of 5 years since 2001, which belong to the Czech Hydrometeorological institute. The soil temperatures at 5 cm depth fluctuate much less in the presence of snow cover. In contrast, the effect of snow cover on the air temperature at 2 m height is only very small. During clear sky conditions and no snow cover, soil can warm up substantially and the soil temperature range can be even higher than the range of air temperature at 2 m height. The actual height of snow is also important - increased snow depth means lower soil temperature range. However, even just 1 cm snow depth substantially lowers the soil temperature range and it can therefore be clearly seen that snow acts as an insulator and has a major effect on soil frost penetration and soil temperature range.

Contrasting Response of Carbon Fluxes to Winter Warming across Land Cover Types in Southern NH, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanders-DeMott, R.; Ouimette, A.; Lepine, L. C.; Fogarty, S.; Burakowski, E. A.; Contosta, A.; Ollinger, S. V.; Conte, T.

2017-12-01

Natural and managed ecosystems play a key role in climate through regulation of carbon dioxide, as well as their effects on other greenhouse gases, surface heat fluxes, and albedo. In the northeastern United States, winter air temperatures are rising more rapidly than mean annual temperatures and the depth and duration of seasonal snowpack is decreasing. Although winter fluxes of carbon are small relative to the growing season, there is mounting evidence that biological processes in winter contribute significantly to annual ecosystem carbon budgets and that changes in winter conditions could lead to shifting patterns and magnitudes of seasonal carbon uptake. To determine the response of differing land cover types to variation in winter conditions we used eddy covariance to monitor carbon exchange from a co-located mixed temperate forest and a managed grassland in Durham, NH from 2014-2017, which included an anomalous warm winter (air temperatures 3°C warmer than 14-year mean) with low snowpack in 2016. We examined cumulative winter and spring net ecosystem exchange, as well as the sensitivity of ecosystem respiration to air and soil temperatures in the presence and absence of a deep (>15 cm) snowpack. We found that warm winter temperatures and low snow conditions led to relatively large cumulative losses of carbon from the forest in February/March 2016, while the grassland was a moderate net sink for carbon during the same period. When temperatures were above 0°C, mid-day carbon uptake in the grassland was controlled by the presence or absence of snow cover. Our results suggest that forest carbon losses to the atmosphere in deciduous forests may increase during warm, snow-free winter conditions when vegetation is restricted in winter carbon uptake capacity by phenology. However, non-forested vegetation such as perennial grasses have a greater potential to activate photosynthesis in winter and to take up carbon in the "dormant season," perhaps moderating increasing winter carbon losses due to increasing winter temperatures.

Can the season of birth risk factor for schizophrenia be prevented by bright light treatment for the second trimester mother around the winter solstice?

PubMed

Schwartz, Paul J

2014-12-01

The season of birth risk factor for schizophrenia exerts a pervasive effect on the global population, particularly at northerly latitudes. The winter infection hypothesis and the low vitamin D hypothesis are both compelling but lack conclusive clinical data. The present work develops a maternal-fetal chronobiological hypothesis for this season of birth risk factor and its prevention by maternal bright light treatment. Around the winter solstice, due to decreased sunlight, the chronobiological apparatus of the at-risk second trimester mother is characterized by a reduced amplitude circadian pacemaker, and a reduced maximum of her nocturnal plasma melatonin concentrations (MTmax) and an increased minimum of her nocturnal core body temperatures (Tmin)--both of which exert adverse effects on the fetal hippocampus and dorsal striatum. The consequences for the fetus include reduced volume and increased excitability of the hippocampus, ventral striatal dysfunction, increased presynaptic nigrostriatal dopamine transmission, and increased propensity for pathological nigrostriatal neuronal phasic firing. Thus, the maternal-fetal chronobiological hypothesis fully accounts for the fetal precursors of the major pathognomonic abnormalities in adults with schizophrenia. Bright light treatment for the second trimester mother around the winter solstice, by increasing maternal circadian amplitude, could possibly prevent the fetal hippocampal and striatal abnormalities and eliminate the season of birth risk factor for schizophrenia. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Problems in evaluating regional and local trends in temperature: An example from eastern Colorado, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pielke, R.A.; Stohlgren, T.; Schell, L.; Parton, W.; Doesken, N.; Redmond, K.; Moeny, J.; McKee, T.; Kittel, T.G.F.

2002-01-01

We evaluated long-term trends in average maximum and minimum temperatures, threshold temperatures, and growing season in eastern Colorado, USA, to explore the potential shortcomings of many climate-change studies that either: (1) generalize regional patterns from single stations, single seasons, or a few parameters over short duration from averaging dissimilar stations: or (2) generalize an average regional pattern from coarse-scale general circulation models. Based on 11 weather stations, some trends were weakly regionally consistent with previous studies of night-time temperature warming. Long-term (80 + years) mean minimum temperatures increased significantly (P < 0.2) in about half the stations in winter, spring, and autumn and six stations had significant decreases in the number of days per year with temperatures ??? - 17.8 ??C (???0??F). However, spatial and temporal variation in the direction of change was enormous for all the other weather parameters tested, and, in the majority of tests, few stations showed significant trends (even at P < 0.2). In summer, four stations had significant increases and three stations had significant decreases in minimum temperatures, producing a strongly mixed regional signal. Trends in maximum temperature varied seasonally and geographically, as did trends in threshold temperature days ???32.2??C (???90??F) or days ???37.8??C (???100??F). There was evidence of a subregional cooling in autumn's maximum temperatures, with five stations showing significant decreasing trends. There were many geographic anomalies where neighbouring weather stations differed greatly in the magnitude of change or where they had significant and opposite trends. We conclude that sub-regional spatial and seasonal variation cannot be ignored when evaluating the direction and magnitude of climate change. It is unlikely that one or a few weather stations are representative of regional climate trends, and equally unlikely that regionally projected climate change from coarse-scale general circulation models will accurately portray trends at sub-regional scales. However, the assessment of a group of stations for consistent more qualitative trends (such as the number of days less than - 17.8??C, such as we found) provides a reasonably robust procedure to evaluate climate trends and variability. Copyright ?? 2002 Royal Meteorological Society.

Seasonal and Interannual Variations of Ice Sheet Surface Elevation at the Summit of Greenland: Observed and Modeled

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zwally, H. Jay; Jun, Li; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Observed seasonal and interannual variations in the surface elevation over the summit of the Greenland ice sheet are modeled using a new temperature-dependent formulation of firn-densification and observed accumulation variations. The observed elevation variations are derived from ERS (European Remote Sensing)-1 and ERS-2 radar altimeter data for the period between April 1992 and April 1999. A multivariate linear/sine function is fitted to an elevation time series constructed from elevation differences measured by radar altimetry at orbital crossovers. The amplitude of the seasonal elevation cycle is 0.25 m peak-to-peak, with a maximum in winter and a minimum in summer. Inter-annually, the elevation decreases to a minimum in 1995, followed by an increase to 1999, with an overall average increase of 4.2 cm a(exp -1) for 1992 to 1999. Our densification formulation uses an initial field-density profile, the AWS (automatic weather station) surface temperature record, and a temperature-dependent constitutive relation for the densification that is based on laboratory measurements of crystal growth rates. The rate constant and the activation energy commonly used in the Arrhenius-type constitutive relation for firn densification are also temperature dependent, giving a stronger temperature and seasonal amplitudes about 10 times greater than previous densification formulations. Summer temperatures are most important, because of the strong non-linear dependence on temperature. Much of firn densification and consequent surface lowering occurs within about three months of the summer season, followed by a surface build-up from snow accumulation until spring. Modeled interannual changes of the surface elevation, using the AWS measurements of surface temperature and accumulation and results of atmospheric modeling of precipitation variations, are in good agreement with the altimeter observations. In the model, the surface elevation decreases about 20 cm over the seven years due to more compaction driven by increasing summer temperatures. The minimum elevation in 1995 is driven mainly by a temporary accumulation decrease and secondarily by warmer temperatures. However, the overall elevation increase over the seven years is dominated by the accumulation increase in the later years.

Autumn migration and wintering areas of Peregrine Falcons Falco peregrinus nesting on the Kola Peninsula, northern Russia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ganusevich, S.A.; Maechtle, T.L.; Seegar, W.S.; Yates, M.A.; McGrady, M.J.; Fuller, M.; Schueck, L.; Dayton, J.; Henny, C.J.

2004-01-01

Four female Peregrine Falcons Falco peregrinus breeding on the Kola Peninsula, Russia, were fitted with satellite-received transmitters in 1994. Their breeding home ranges averaged 1175 (sd = ±714) km2, and overlapped considerably. All left their breeding grounds in September and migrated generally south-west along the Baltic Sea. The mean travel rate for three falcons was 190 km/day. Two Falcons wintered on the coasts of France and in southern Spain, which were, respectively, 2909 and 4262 km from their breeding sites. Data on migration routes suggested that Falcons took a near-direct route to the wintering areas. No prolonged stopovers were apparent. The 90% minimum convex polygon winter range of a bird that migrated to Spain encompassed 213 km2 (n = 54). The area of the 50% minimum convex polygon was 21.5 km2 (n = 29). Data from this study agree with others from North America that show that Falcons breeding in a single area do not necessarily follow the same migratory path southward and do not necessarily use the same wintering grounds.

Dehydration and Lagrangian Cold Point in the extratropical Tropopause region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoor, P.; Wernli, H.

2012-04-01

The tropopause region of the tropics and extratropics is sensitive to modifications of the radiation budget through changes of radiatively active substances like ozone and water vapour. Both may also modify the temperature structure and the strengths of the tropopause inversion layer (TIL). Stratospheric water vapour is mainly controlled by dehydration in the tropics. Ascending air masses encounter their minimum temperature in the TTL region (tropical tropopause layer) which determines the water vapour fraction which enters the stratosphere. In the lowermost stratosphere of the extratropics however, the tropical signal might be lost due to mixing with airmasses which crossed the tropopause (TST: troposphere to stratosphere) at higher temperatures, therefore carrying more water vapour to the extratropical stratosphere. We investigate statistical 90 day backward trajectories to investigate the role of dehydration at the extratropical tropopause for the water vapour budget at the tropopause at mid and high latitudes. We use a set of 800000 trajectories for summer and winter, respectively, on the basis of ECMWF-T799L91 operational data (kinematic wind fields). We analyze the trajectories for the time and locations of their cold point and TST. Our results indicate that : 1) TST and dehydration occur at different locations 2) Dehydration occurs in general before trajectories enter the stratosphere 3) Dehydration of TST trajectories can occur in northern winter after TST in the region of high tropopauses over Siberia

Thermal biology, population fluctuations and implications of temperature extremes for the management of two globally significant insect pests.

PubMed

Nyamukondiwa, Casper; Weldon, Christopher W; Chown, Steven L; le Roux, Peter C; Terblanche, John S

2013-12-01

The link between environmental temperature, physiological processes and population fluctuations is a significant aspect of insect pest management. Here, we explore how thermal biology affects the population abundance of two globally significant pest fruit fly species, Ceratitis capitata (medfly) and C. rosa (Natal fruit fly), including irradiated individuals and those expressing a temperature sensitive lethal (tsl) mutation that are used in the sterile insect technique. Results show that upper and lower lethal temperatures are seldom encountered at the field sites, while critical minimum temperatures for activity and lower developmental thresholds are crossed more frequently. Estimates of abundance revealed that C. capitata are active year-round, but abundance declines markedly during winter. Temporal autocorrelation of average fortnightly trap captures and of development time, estimated from an integrated model to calculate available degree days, show similar seasonal lags suggesting that population increases in early spring occur after sufficient degree-days have accumulated. By contrast, population collapses coincide tightly with increasing frequency of low temperature events that fall below critical minimum temperatures for activity. Individuals of C. capitata expressing the tsl mutation show greater critical thermal maxima and greater longevity under field conditions than reference individuals. Taken together, this evidence suggests that low temperatures limit populations in the Western Cape, South Africa and likely do so elsewhere. Increasing temperature extremes and warming climates generally may extend the season over which these species are active, and could increase abundance. The sterile insect technique may prove profitable as climates change given that laboratory-reared tsl flies have an advantage under warmer conditions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Winter Season Mortality: Will Climate Warming Bring Benefits?

PubMed

Kinney, Patrick L; Schwartz, Joel; Pascal, Mathilde; Petkova, Elisaveta; Tertre, Alain Le; Medina, Sylvia; Vautard, Robert

2015-06-01

Extreme heat events are associated with spikes in mortality, yet death rates are on average highest during the coldest months of the year. Under the assumption that most winter excess mortality is due to cold temperature, many previous studies have concluded that winter mortality will substantially decline in a warming climate. We analyzed whether and to what extent cold temperatures are associated with excess winter mortality across multiple cities and over multiple years within individual cities, using daily temperature and mortality data from 36 US cities (1985-2006) and 3 French cities (1971-2007). Comparing across cities, we found that excess winter mortality did not depend on seasonal temperature range, and was no lower in warmer vs. colder cities, suggesting that temperature is not a key driver of winter excess mortality. Using regression models within monthly strata, we found that variability in daily mortality within cities was not strongly influenced by winter temperature. Finally we found that inadequate control for seasonality in analyses of the effects of cold temperatures led to spuriously large assumed cold effects, and erroneous attribution of winter mortality to cold temperatures. Our findings suggest that reductions in cold-related mortality under warming climate may be much smaller than some have assumed. This should be of interest to researchers and policy makers concerned with projecting future health effects of climate change and developing relevant adaptation strategies.

Winter season mortality: will climate warming bring benefits?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinney, Patrick L.; Schwartz, Joel; Pascal, Mathilde; Petkova, Elisaveta; Le Tertre, Alain; Medina, Sylvia; Vautard, Robert

2015-06-01

Extreme heat events are associated with spikes in mortality, yet death rates are on average highest during the coldest months of the year. Under the assumption that most winter excess mortality is due to cold temperature, many previous studies have concluded that winter mortality will substantially decline in a warming climate. We analyzed whether and to what extent cold temperatures are associated with excess winter mortality across multiple cities and over multiple years within individual cities, using daily temperature and mortality data from 36 US cities (1985-2006) and 3 French cities (1971-2007). Comparing across cities, we found that excess winter mortality did not depend on seasonal temperature range, and was no lower in warmer vs. colder cities, suggesting that temperature is not a key driver of winter excess mortality. Using regression models within monthly strata, we found that variability in daily mortality within cities was not strongly influenced by winter temperature. Finally we found that inadequate control for seasonality in analyses of the effects of cold temperatures led to spuriously large assumed cold effects, and erroneous attribution of winter mortality to cold temperatures. Our findings suggest that reductions in cold-related mortality under warming climate may be much smaller than some have assumed. This should be of interest to researchers and policy makers concerned with projecting future health effects of climate change and developing relevant adaptation strategies.

The responses of microbial temperature relationships to seasonal change and winter warming in a temperate grassland.

PubMed

Birgander, Johanna; Olsson, Pål Axel; Rousk, Johannes

2018-01-18

Microorganisms dominate the decomposition of organic matter and their activities are strongly influenced by temperature. As the carbon (C) flux from soil to the atmosphere due to microbial activity is substantial, understanding temperature relationships of microbial processes is critical. It has been shown that microbial temperature relationships in soil correlate with the climate, and microorganisms in field experiments become more warm-tolerant in response to chronic warming. It is also known that microbial temperature relationships reflect the seasons in aquatic ecosystems, but to date this has not been investigated in soil. Although climate change predictions suggest that temperatures will be mostly affected during winter in temperate ecosystems, no assessments exist of the responses of microbial temperature relationships to winter warming. We investigated the responses of the temperature relationships of bacterial growth, fungal growth, and respiration in a temperate grassland to seasonal change, and to 2 years' winter warming. The warming treatments increased winter soil temperatures by 5-6°C, corresponding to 3°C warming of the mean annual temperature. Microbial temperature relationships and temperature sensitivities (Q 10 ) could be accurately established, but did not respond to winter warming or to seasonal temperature change, despite significant shifts in the microbial community structure. The lack of response to winter warming that we demonstrate, and the strong response to chronic warming treatments previously shown, together suggest that it is the peak annual soil temperature that influences the microbial temperature relationships, and that temperatures during colder seasons will have little impact. Thus, mean annual temperatures are poor predictors for microbial temperature relationships. Instead, the intensity of summer heat-spells in temperate systems is likely to shape the microbial temperature relationships that govern the soil-atmosphere C exchange. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Morphotaxonomy and seasonal distribution of planktonic and benthic Prorocentrales in Karachi waters, Pakistan Northern Arabian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munir, Sonia; Burhan, Zaib-un-nisa; Naz, Tahira; Siddiqui, P. J. A.; Morton, Steve L.

2013-03-01

Morphotaxonomy and seasonal abundance of dinoflagellates of the genera Prorocentrum and Mesoporos (Prorocentrales) were studied from nutrient-rich waters, Karachi Harbor and the mouth of the Manora Channel, Pakistan during May 2002-July 2003. Using both light and scanning electron microscopy, 13 species of Prorocentrales were identified according to cell shape, size, ornamentation of thecal plates, and architecture of apical platelets, apical pore area, marginal pores, and intercalary bands. P. sigmoides, P. arcuatum, P. scutellum, P. donghaiense, P. balticum, P. minimum, P. emarginatum, P. lima, P. faustiae, and Mesoporos perforatus constitute new records for sindh coast of Pakistan. The most abundant species were P. minimum/P. balticum (4.5×103 cells/L), P. micans (1.1×103 cells/L), P. gracile / P. sigmoides (2.5×10 2 cells/L) and P. donghaiense (6.6×103 cells/L) at temperatures of 29-31°C and salinities of 35-40. Maximum abundance was observed in winter and lower abundance in summer. There was no significant change in the distribution of species between stations except for the benthic species which occurred close to Karachi Harbor waters. Significant positive correlations were observed between Prorocentrum spp. and temperature ( R 2 =0.27) and negative correlations with salinity ( R 2 =-0.32) except for P. minimum and P. emarginatum which has negative correlation with temperature ( R 2 =-0.24) and positive with salinity ( R 2 =0.08, 0.19). The finding of potential okadaic-acid producing species of benthic Prorocentrum call for monitoring for possible human health problems in this region.

Re-emerging ocean temperature anomalies in late-2010 associated with a repeat negative NAO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taws, Sarah L.; Marsh, Robert; Wells, Neil C.; Hirschi, Joël

2011-10-01

Northern Europe was influenced by consecutive episodes of extreme winter weather at the start and end of the 2010 calendar year. A tripole pattern in North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), associated with an exceptionally negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), characterized both winter periods. This pattern was largely absent at the surface during the 2010 summer season; however equivalent sub-surface temperature anomalies were preserved within the seasonal thermocline throughout the year. Here, we present evidence for the re-emergence of late-winter 2009/10 SSTAs during the following early winter season of 2010/11. The observed re-emergence contributes toward the winter-to-winter persistence of the anomalous tripole pattern. Considering the active influence of the oceans upon leading modes of atmospheric circulation over seasonal timescales, associated with the memory of large-scale sea surface temperature anomaly patterns, the re-emergence of remnant temperature anomalies may have also contributed toward the persistence of a negative winter NAO, and the recurrence of extreme wintry conditions over the initial 2010/11 winter season.

Seasonal variation of benthic macro invertebrates from Tons River of Garhwal Himalaya Uttarakhand.

PubMed

Negi, R K; Mamgain, Sheetal

2013-11-15

Present investigation was carried out to assess the seasonal variation of benthic macro-invertebrates from the Tons river, a tributary of Yamuna River in Garhwal Himalaya, Uttrakhand during December, 2007 to November, 2009. The seasonal benthic diversity was correlated with various physic-chemical parameters which documented that the macrobenthic diversity is mostly regulated by the dissolved oxygen in the water while temperature and free CO2 were found to be inversely correlated with the benthic fauna. Maximum diversity of benthos was reported at the upstream site ('H' 0.204) during the winter season while it was recorded minimum during the rainy season at all the sites. Maximum diversity is reported during the winter season at all the sites. The benthic fauna is represented by three phylum, 4 classes and 10 orders with Insecta emerging as the most dominant class. Maximum genera were reported from midstream site as it acts as ecotone between upstream and downstream.

Impact of Climate Change on Potential, Attainable, and Actual Wheat Yield in Oklahoma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhakal, K.; Linde, E.; Kakani, V. G.; Alderman, P. D.; Brunson, D.; Ochsner, T. E.; Carver, B.

2017-12-01

Gradually developing climatic and weather anomalies due to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases concentration can pose threat to farmers and resource managers. This study was aimed at investigating the effects of climate change on winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) under the Representative Concentration Pathways 6.0 and 8.5 using downscaled climate projections from different models and their ensembles. Daily data of maximum and minimum air temperature, rainfall, and solar radiation for, four General Circulation Models (MRIOC5, MRI-CGCM3, HadGEM2-ES, CSRIO-Mk3.6.0), ensemble of four models and ensemble of 17 GCMs, at 800 m resolution, were developed for two RCPs using Marksim. We describe a methodology for rapid synthesis of GCM-based, spatially explicit, high resolution future weather data inputs for the DSSAT crop model, for cropland area across wheat growing regions of Oklahoma for the future period 2040-2060. The potential impacts of climate change and variability on potential, attainable, and actual winter wheat yield in Oklahoma is discussed.

Seasonal Disappearance of Far-Infrared Haze in Titan's Stratosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jennings, Donald E.; Anderson, C. M.; Flasar, F. M.; Nixon, C. A.; Kunde, V. G.; Achterberg, R. K.; Cottini, V.; deKok, R.; Coustenis, A.; Vinatier, S.;

South Polar Cap, Summer 2000

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2000-01-01

This is the south polar cap of Mars as it appeared to the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) on April 17, 2000. In winter and early spring, this entire scene would be covered by frost. In summer, the cap shrinks to its minimum size, as shown here. Even though it is summer, observations made by the Viking orbiters in the 1970s showed that the south polar cap remains cold enough that the polar frost (seen here as white) consists of carbon dioxide. Carbon dioxide freezes at temperatures around -125o C (-193o F). Mid-summer afternoon sunlight illuminates this scene from the upper left from about 11.2o above the horizon. Soon the cap will experience sunsets; by June 2000, this pole will be in autumn, and the area covered by frost will begin to grow. Winter will return to the south polar region in December 2000. The polar cap from left to right is about 420 km (260 mi) across.

Experimental winter warming modifies thermal performance and primes acorn ants for warm weather.

PubMed

MacLean, Heidi J; Penick, Clint A; Dunn, Robert R; Diamond, Sarah E

2017-07-01

The frequency of warm winter days is increasing under global climate change, but how organisms respond to warmer winters is not well understood. Most studies focus on growing season responses to warming. Locomotor performance is often highly sensitive to temperature, and can determine fitness outcomes through a variety of mechanisms including resource acquisition and predator escape. As a consequence, locomotor performance, and its impacts on fitness, may be strongly affected by winter warming in winter-active species. Here we use the acorn ant, Temnothorax curvispinosus, to explore how thermal performance (temperature-driven plasticity) in running speed is influenced by experimental winter warming of 3-5°C above ambient in a field setting. We used running speed as a measure of performance as it is a common locomotor trait that influences acquisition of nest sites and food in acorn ants. Experimental winter warming significantly altered thermal performance for running speed at high (26 and 36°C) but not low test temperatures (6 and 16°C). Although we saw little differentiation in thermal performance at cooler test temperatures, we saw a marked increase in running speed at the hotter test temperatures for ants that experienced warmer winters compared with those that experienced cooler winters. Our results provide evidence that overwintering temperatures can substantially influence organismal performance, and suggest that we cannot ignore overwintering effects when forecasting organismal responses to environmental changes in temperature. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Precipitation and temperature trends over central Italy (Abruzzo Region): 1951-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scorzini, Anna Rita; Leopardi, Maurizio

2018-02-01

This study analyses spatial and temporal trends of precipitation and temperatures over Abruzzo Region (central Italy), using historical climatic data from a dense observation network. The results show a general, although not significant, negative trend in the regionally averaged annual precipitation (- 1.8% of the yearly mean rainfall per decade). This reduction is particularly evident in winter, especially at mountain stations (average - 3% change/decade). Despite this general decreasing trend, a partial rainfall recovery is observed after the 1980s. Furthermore, the majority of meteorological stations register a significant warming over the last 60 years, (mean annual temperature increase of + 0.15 °C/decade), which reflects a rise in both minimum and maximum temperatures, with the latter generally increasing at a faster rate. Spring and summer are the seasons which contribute most to the general temperature increase, in particular at high elevation sites, which exhibit a more pronounced warming (+ 0.24 °C/decade). However, this tendency has not been uniform over 1951-2012, but it has been characterised by a cooling phenomenon in the first 30 years (1951-1981), followed by an even stronger warming during the last three decades (1982-2012). Finally, correlations between the climatic variables and the dominant teleconnection patterns in the Mediterranean basin are analysed to identify the potential influence of large-scale atmospheric dynamics on observed trends in Abruzzo. The results highlight the dominant role of the East-Atlantic pattern on seasonal temperatures, while more spatially heterogeneous associations, depending on the complex topography of the region, are identified between winter precipitation and the North Atlantic Oscillation, East-Atlantic and East-Atlantic/Western Russian patterns.

Impact of winter cooling on the northern part of the Black Sea.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savchenko, Anatolii

2016-07-01

Climate change in the future may have a negative impact on many countries due to the increasing surface temperature and sea level rise. Probably, unprecedented largest positive trend of surface temperature, which observed since the mid XX century, has associated with increasing human activities around the world. Moreover, this warming will continue in this century, and at the end of the XXI century will be 2 - 5 ºC. Thus, investigation and monitoring of current climate are very important and necessary tasks. Regional model data (downscaling) and satellite data are used, because of underdeveloped network of meteorological stations in the northern part of the Black Sea region. Experiment of downscaling was carried out for the Black Sea region with a high spatial resolution of 0.22° x 0.22° for 1958 - 2007(daily values). For the Black Sea were also used satellite data of sea surface temperature(SST) from MyOcean-2 Project, which CNR(Rome) has reprocessed Pathfinder V5.2 (PFV52) AVHRR data over period 1981 - 2012 with daily gap-free maps (L4) at the original PFV52 resolution at 0.04° x 0.04°. Correlation between satellite SST and surface temperature from regional model climate are amounted 0,99. Thus, surface temperature of model and satellite data for the Black Sea is much correlated between yourself. The following integral characteristics of the Black Sea are referred to the area of sea limited by the 44 - 47º N and 28 - 34º E. Maximum cooling of the north-western part of the Black Sea in winter is occurs after invasion of cold air across the northern border of the basin. In addition, this water area is also interesting in the presence of her huge oil and gas reserves, as well as the construction of liquefied gas (crude oil) terminals. The maximum values of total heat flux (sensible + latent heat fluxes= Q) corresponding to the minimum values of SST are observed during the periods of the negative phase of the NAO. Besides, fluxes with extreme days P (Q) = 95% (the number of which is 5% of the total number of winter days) contribute ≈ 16 - 18% of the total heat flux during the winter, and with P (Q) = 90% - approximately 30%. Typical synoptic situation of extreme winter cooling P (Q) = 95% is presence of anticyclone in the district of Carpathian Mountains. North-easterly flow of cold air at high velocities near-surface wind leads to extreme total heat flux and decreasing SST. Satellite images of clouds well illustrate such cases as, for example, cold air invasion to the Black Sea area on January 23, 2006 (Satellite TERRA). Because of increase of risk associated with climate change, this topic is particularly relevant for the marine area, which is subjected to strong weathering during extreme events in winter. The monitoring of this area will allow reducing the damage from extreme natural events in the future.

Analysis of a long drought in Piedmont, Italy - Autumn 2001

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gandini, D.; Marchisio, C.; Paesano, G.; Pelosini, P.

2003-04-01

A long period of drought and cold temperatures has characterised the seasons of Autumn 2001 and Winter 2001-2002 on the regions of the southern Alpine chain. The analysis of precipitation's data, collected by the Regional Monitoring network of Piedmont Region (on the south-west side of Alps), shows that they are far below the mean values and very close to the historical minimum of the last century. The six months accumulated precipitation in Turin (Piedmont chief town), from June to December 2001, has reached the historical minimum value of 206 mm in comparison with a mean value of 540 mm. The drought has been remarkable also in the mountain areas with the lack of snowfalls and critical consequences for water reservoirs. At the same time, the number of days with daily averaged temperature below or close to 0°C in December 2001 has been the greatest value of the last 50 years, much higher than the 50 years average, for the whole Piedmont region. This study contains a detailed analysis of observed data to characterise the drought episode, associated with a climatological analysis of meteorological parameters in order to detect the typical large scale pattern of the drought periods and their persistency's features.

Jet fuel from 18 cool-season oilseed feedstocks in a semi-arid environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, Brett; Jabro, Jay

2017-04-01

Renewable jet fuel feedstocks can potentially offset the demand for petroleum based transportation resources, diversify cropping systems, and provide numerous ecosystem services . However, identifying suitable feedstock supplies remains a primary constraint to adoption. A 4-yr, multi-site experiment initiated in fall 2012 investigated the yield potential of six winter- and twelve spring-types of cool-season oilseed feedstocks. Sidney, MT (250 mm annual growing season precipitation) was one of eight sites in the western USA with others in Colorado, Idaho, Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oregon, and Texas. Winter types of Camelina sativa (1), Brassica napus (4), and B. rapa (1) were planted in mid-September, while spring types of Camelina sativa (1), B. napus (4), B. rapa (1), B. juncea (2), B. carinata (2), and Sinapis alba (2) were planted in early to late April. Seeding rates varied by entry and were between 4 to 11 kg/ha. All plots were under no-till management. Plots were 3 by 9 m with each treatment (oilseed entry) replicated four times. Camelina 'Joelle' was the only fall-seeded entry that survived winters with little to no snow cover on plots and where minimum air temperature reached -32°C. Stands of 'Joelle' in the spring of all years were excellent. 'Joelle' plots were typically harvested in July, while spring types were harvested 2-6 weeks later. Severe hailstorms during the late growing seasons of 2013 and 2015 resulted in up to 95% seed loss, preventing normal seed yield harvest of spring types. The B. carinata and spring camelina were the least and most susceptible to hail damage during plant maturity, respectively. 'Joelle' winter camelina was harvested before the severe weather in both years, showing the benefit of an early maturing crop in regions prone to late season hail. Overall, camelina was the only winter type that showed potential as an oilseed feedstock due to its superior winter hardiness. For spring types, B. napus, Camelina sativa, and B. carinata showed the greatest potential. Seed yield, excluding the five winter types that succumbed every year to winter kill, ranged from about 200 to 2000 kg/ha, with B. napus hybrids (1900 kg/ha), winter and spring camelina (1700 kg/ha), and B. carinata (1300 kg/ha) showing the greatest feedstock potential. Other measurements taken, but not reported included crop phenology, canopy spectral reflectance, leaf area, leaf area index, canopy temperature, soil water use, crop biomass, yield components, seed oil%, seed fatty acid composition, and drought resistance. Overall, camelina was the only winter type in addition to spring types of B. napus, B. carinata, and camelina that showed good potential for jet fuel feedstocks in the semi-arid northern Great Plains, USA.

The coupled atmosphere-chemistry-ocean model SOCOL-MPIOM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muthers, S.; Anet, J. G.; Stenke, A.; Raible, C. C.; Rozanov, E.; Brönnimann, S.; Peter, T.; Arfeuille, F. X.; Shapiro, A. I.; Beer, J.; Steinhilber, F.; Brugnara, Y.; Schmutz, W.

2014-05-01

The newly developed atmosphere-ocean-chemistry-climate model SOCOL-MPIOM is presented by demonstrating the influence of the interactive chemistry module on the climate state and the variability. Therefore, we compare pre-industrial control simulations with (CHEM) and without (NOCHEM) interactive chemistry. In general, the influence of the chemistry on the mean state and the variability is small and mainly restricted to the stratosphere and mesosphere. The largest differences are found for the atmospheric dynamics in the polar regions, with slightly stronger northern and southern winter polar vortices in CHEM. The strengthening of the vortex is related to larger stratospheric temperature gradients, which are attributed to a parametrization of the absorption of ozone and oxygen in the Lyman-alpha, Schumann-Runge, Hartley, and Higgins bands. This effect is parametrized in the version with interactive chemistry only. A second reason for the temperature differences between CHEM and NOCHEM is related to diurnal variations in the ozone concentrations in the higher atmosphere, which are missing in NOCHEM. Furthermore, stratospheric water vapour concentrations differ substantially between the two experiments, but their effect on the temperatures is small. In both setups, the simulated intensity and variability of the northern polar vortex is inside the range of present day observations. Sudden stratospheric warming events are well reproduced in terms of their frequency, but the distribution amongst the winter months is too uniform. Additionally, the performance of SOCOL-MPIOM under changing external forcings is assessed for the period 1600-2000 using an ensemble of simulations driven by a spectral solar forcing reconstruction. The amplitude of the reconstruction is large in comparison to other state-of-the-art reconstructions, providing an upper limit for the importance of the solar signal. In the pre-industrial period (1600-1850) the simulated surface temperature trends are in reasonable agreement with temperature reconstructions, although the multi-decadal variability is more pronounced. This enhanced variability can be attributed to the variability in the solar forcing. The simulated temperature reductions during the Maunder Minimum are in the lowest probability range of the proxy records. During the Dalton Minimum, when also volcanic forcing is an important driver of temperature variations, the agreement is better. In the industrial period from 1850 onward SOCOL-MPIOM overestimates the temperature increase in comparison to observational data sets. Sensitivity simulations show that this overestimation can be attributed to the increasing trend in the solar forcing reconstruction that is used in this study and an additional warming induced by the simulated ozone changes.

Temperature characteristics of winter roost-sites for birds and mammals: tree cavities and anthropogenic alternatives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grüebler, Martin U.; Widmer, Silv; Korner-Nievergelt, Fränzi; Naef-Daenzer, Beat

2014-07-01

The microclimate of potential roost-sites is likely to be a crucial determinant in the optimal roost-site selection of endotherms, in particular during the winter season of temperate zones. Available roost-sites for birds and mammals in European high trunk orchards are mainly tree cavities, wood stacks and artificial nest boxes. However, little is known about the microclimatic patterns inside cavities and thermal advantages of using these winter roost-sites. Here, we simultaneously investigate the thermal patterns of winter roost-sites in relation to winter ambient temperature and their insulation capacity. While tree cavities and wood stacks strongly buffered the daily cycle of temperature changes, nest boxes showed low buffering capacity. The buffering effect of tree cavities was stronger at extreme ambient temperatures compared to temperatures around zero. Heat sources inside roosts amplified Δ T (i.e., the difference between inside and outside temperatures), particularly in the closed roosts of nest boxes and tree cavities, and less in the open wood stacks with stronger circulation of air. Positive Δ T due to the installation of a heat source increased in cold ambient temperatures. These results suggest that orchard habitats in winter show a spatiotemporal mosaic of sites providing different thermal benefits varying over time and in relation to ambient temperatures. At cold temperatures tree cavities provide significantly higher thermal benefits than nest boxes or wood stacks. Thus, in winter ecology of hole-using endotherms, the availability of tree cavities may be an important characteristic of winter habitat quality.

Titan Temperature Lag Maps

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-02-18

This sequence of maps shows varying surface temperatures on Saturn moon Titan at two-year intervals, from 2004 to 2016. The measurements were made by the Composite Infrared Spectrometer CIRS instrument on NASA Cassini spacecraft. The maps show thermal infrared radiation (heat) coming from Titan's surface at a wavelength of 19 microns, a spectral window at which the moon's otherwise opaque atmosphere is mostly transparent. Temperatures have been averaged around the globe from east to west (longitudinally) to emphasize the seasonal variation across latitudes (from north to south). Black regions in the maps are areas for which there was no data. Titan's surface temperature changes slowly over the course of the Saturn system's long seasons, which each last seven and a half years. As on Earth, the amount of sunlight received at each latitude varies as the sun's illumination moves northward or southward over the course of the 30-year-long Saturnian year. When Cassini arrived at Saturn in 2004, Titan's southern hemisphere was in late summer and was therefore the warmest region. Shortly after the 2009 equinox, in 2010, temperatures were symmetrical across the northern and southern hemispheres, mimicking the distribution observed by Voyager 1 in 1980 (one Titan year earlier). Temperatures subsequently cooled in the south and rose in the north, as southern winter approached. While the overall trend in the temperature shift is clearly evident in these maps, there is narrow banding in several places that is an artifact of making the observations through Titan's atmosphere. The moon's dense, hazy envelope adds noise to the difficult measurement. Although it moves in latitude, the maximum measured temperature on Titan remains around -292 degrees Fahrenheit (-179.6 degrees Celsius, 93.6 Kelvin), with a minimum temperature at the winter pole only 6 degrees Fahrenheit (3.5 degrees Celsius or Kelvin) colder. This is a much smaller contrast than exists between Earth's warmest and coldest temperatures, which can vary by more than 200 degrees Fahrenheit, or more than 100 degrees Celsius. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA20020

Seasonal Metabolic Acclimatization Varies in Direction and Magnitude among Populations of an Afrotropical Passerine Bird.

PubMed

Noakes, Matthew J; Wolf, Blair O; McKechnie, Andrew E

Avian metabolic responses demonstrate considerable diversity under fluctuating environmental conditions, a well-studied example being the seasonal upregulation of basal metabolic rate (BMR) and summit metabolism (M sum ) in temperate species experiencing harsh winters. Fewer studies have examined seasonal metabolic acclimatization in subtropical or tropical species. We investigated seasonal metabolic variation in an Afrotropical ploceid passerine, the white-browed sparrow-weaver (Plocepasser mahali; ∼47 g), at three sites along a climatic gradient of approximately 7°C in winter minimum air temperature (T a ). We measured M sum (n ≥ 10 per site per season) in a helox atmosphere, BMR of the same birds at thermoneutrality (T a ≈ 30°C), and resting metabolic rates at 5°C ≤ T a ≤ 20°C. Patterns of seasonal adjustments in BMR varied among populations in a manner not solely related to variation in seasonal T a extremes, ranging from BMR ∼52% higher in winter than in summer to no seasonal difference. Greater cold tolerance was found in a population at a colder desert site, manifested as higher M sum (∼25% higher) and lower helox temperature at cold limit values compared with a milder, mesic site. Our results lend support to the idea that greater variance in the pattern of seasonal metabolic responses occurs in subtropical and tropical species compared with their temperate-zone counterparts and that factors other than T a extremes (e.g., food availability) may be important in determining the magnitude and direction of seasonal metabolic adjustments in subtropical birds.

Time and temperature interactions in freezing tolerance of winter wheat

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In order to survive the temperature fluctuations that occur during the winter months, winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) plants must tolerate episodes of freezing to various temperatures for various lengths of time. In this study, the ability of six wheat cultivars to survive exposure to -13.5 to ...

Winter temperatures over the Korean Peninsula and East Asia: development of a new index and its application to seasonal forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Seon Tae; Sohn, Soo-Jin; Kug, Jong-Seong

2017-09-01

This study proposes a new index for monitoring and predicting winter temperatures of the Korean Peninsula based on the dominant atmospheric winter teleconnection patterns. The utilization of this index is further extended to the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) index because the new index is found to well represent the main feature of the EAWM circulation. Among the teleconnection patterns, the East Atlantic (EA) and Western Pacific (WP) patterns are found to be most strongly correlated with winter temperatures via their partial association with changes in sea level pressure (SLP) around the Korean Peninsula, i.e., the EA and WP patterns are associated with SLP variation over the Siberian High region and the Kuroshio extension region to the east of Japan, respectively. On the basis of this relationship, the two regions representing the northwest-to-southeast SLP gradients are determined to define the new index. It is found that the new index can represent the Korean winter temperatures consistently well regardless of their considerable decadal changes. When compared with the existing SLP-based EAWM indices, the new index shows the best performance in delineating winter air temperatures, not only in the Korean Peninsula but also in the entire East Asian region. We also assess the prediction skill of the new index with seasonal coupled forecast models of the APEC Climate Center of Korea and its capability to predict winter temperatures. This assessment shows that the new index has potential for operationally predicting and monitoring winter temperatures in Korea and the whole of East Asia.

Influence of sudden stratospheric warming and quasi biennial oscillation on western disturbance over north India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Remya, R.; Kottayil, Ajil; Mohanakumar, K.

2017-07-01

This study demonstrates the variability in Western Disturbance during the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) period and its eventual influence on the north Indian weather pattern. The modulations in the north Indian winter under the two phases of the Quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) during SSW periods are also examined. The analysis has been carried out by using the ERA interim reanalysis dataset for different pressure levels in the stratosphere and upper troposphere during the time period of 1980-2010. The daily minimum surface temperature data published by India Meteorological Department from 1969 to 2013 has been used for the analysis of temperature anomaly over north India during SSW. The period of intense stratospheric warming witnesses a downward propagation and intensification of kinetic energy from stratosphere to upper troposphere over the Mediterranean and Caspian Sea. When QBO is in easterly phase, the cooling over north India is much larger when compared to the westerly phase during instances of SSW. SSW coincident with the easterly phase of QBO causes an intensified subtropical jet over the mid-latitude regions. The modulation in circulation pattern in stratosphere and upper troposphere when ENSO occurs during SSW period is also analysed separately. This study provides the link among SSW, Western Disturbances and the north Indian cooling during winter season.

QBO/solar modulation of the boreal winter Madden-Julian oscillation: A prediction for the coming solar minimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hood, Lon L.

2017-04-01

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), also known as the 30-60 day oscillation, is the strongest of the intraseasonal climate oscillations in the tropics and has significant derivative effects on extratropical circulation and intraseasonal climate. It has recently been shown that the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) modulates the amplitude of the boreal winter MJO such that MJO amplitudes are larger on average during the easterly phase (QBOE) than during the westerly phase (QBOW). A major possible mechanism is the decrease in static stability in the lowermost stratosphere under QBOE conditions resulting from relative upwelling associated with the QBO-induced meridional circulation. Here evidence is presented that tropical upwelling changes related to the 11 year solar cycle also modulate the boreal winter MJO. Based on 37.3 years of MJO amplitude data, the largest amplitudes and occurrence rates, and the weakest static stabilities in the tropical lower stratosphere, occur during the QBOE phase under solar minimum (SMIN) conditions while the smallest amplitudes and strongest static stabilities occur during the QBOW phase under solar maximum (SMAX) conditions. Conversely, when the QBO and solar forcings are opposed (QBOW/SMIN and QBOE/SMAX), the difference in occurrence rates becomes statistically insignificant. During the coming solar minimum, at least one additional winter in the QBOE/SMIN category should occur (possibly as early as 2017/2018) during which especially large MJO amplitudes are expected and an initial test of these results will be possible.

Winter flounder antifreeze protein genes: demonstration of a cold-inducible promoter and gene transfer to other species

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, R.C.; Gourlie, B.; Price, J.

1987-05-01

During the late fall and winter, the winter flounder produces a family of unique antifreeze proteins (AFP) to prevent the lethal formation of ice crystals in its blood. They have been able to induce winter flounder AFP mRNA synthesis in vivo by lowering the ambient temperature of the fish from 18/sup 0/C in the summer months when AFP synthesis is at a minimum to 4/sup 0/C. Furthermore, they have demonstrated and thoroughly investigated this cold induction of AFP mRNA synthesis in vitro in isolated liver tissue and in nuclear preparations isolated from liver tissue. A drug selection vector (pRSV/sub gpt/)more » which uses RSV promoter for the expression of xanthine-guanine phosphoribosyltransferase (gpt) gene and contains an AFP gene and 1.7 kb of its 5' upstream control region has been constructed for studies of gene transfer into cells of other fish species. These studies were made using a variety of gene transfer techniques into tissue culture cell lines derived from rainbow trout, bluegill, and salmon. Drug resistant colonies from all three species have been obtained and the presence of AFP DNA has been positively identified by Southern analysis. In addition, Northern blot analysis has shown that both gpt gene and AFP gene are active in these cells since mRNA/sub gpt/ and mRNA/sub AFP/ can be detected by probing with the respective gene sequences.« less

Increasing frequency and duration of Arctic winter warming events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, R. M.; Cohen, L.; Petty, A.; Boisvert, L.; Rinke, A.; Hudson, S. R.; Nicolaus, M.; Granskog, M. A.

2017-12-01

Record low Arctic sea ice extents were observed during the last three winter seasons (March). During each of these winters, near-surface air temperatures close to 0°C were observed, in situ, over sea ice in the central Arctic. Recent media reports and scientific studies suggest that such winter warming events were unprecedented for the Arctic. Here we use in situ winter (December-March) temperature observations, such as those from Soviet North Pole drifting stations and ocean buoys, to determine how common Arctic winter warming events are. The earliest record we find of a winter warming event was in March 1896, where a temperature of -3.7˚C was observed at 84˚N during the Fram expedition. Observations of winter warming events exist over most of the Arctic Basin. Despite a limited observational network, temperatures exceeding -5°C were measured in situ during more than 30% of winters from 1954 to 2010, by either North Pole drifting stations or ocean buoys. Correlation coefficients between the atmospheric reanalysis, ERA-Interim, and these in-situ temperature records are shown to be on the order of 0.90. This suggests that ERA-Interim is a suitable tool for studying Arctic winter warming events. Using the ERA-Interim record (1979-2016), we show that the North Pole (NP) region typically experiences 10 warming events (T2m > -10°C) per winter, compared with only five in the Pacific Central Arctic (PCA). We find a positive trend in the overall duration of winter warming events for both the NP region (4.25 days/decade) and PCA (1.16 days/decade), due to an increased number of events of longer duration.

Ixodes ricinus parasitism of birds increases at higher winter temperatures.

PubMed

Furness, Robert W; Furness, Euan N

2018-06-01

Increasing winter temperatures are expected to cause seasonal activity of Ixodes ricinus ticks to extend further into the winter. We caught birds during winter months (November to February) at a site in the west of Scotland over a period of 24 years (1993-1994 to 2016-2017) to quantify numbers of attached I. ricinus and to relate these to monthly mean temperature. No adult ticks were found on any of the 21,731 bird captures, but 946 larvae and nymphs were found, with ticks present in all winter months, on 16 different species of bird hosts. All ticks identified to species were I. ricinus. I. ricinus are now active throughout the year in this area providing temperature permits. No I. ricinus were present in seven out of eight months when the mean temperature was below 3.5º C. Numbers of I. ricinus attached to birds increased rapidly with mean monthly temperatures above 7º C. Winter temperatures in Scotland have been above the long-term average in most years in the last two decades, and this is likely to increase risk of tick-borne disease. © 2018 The Society for Vector Ecology.

Climate change in Lagos state, Nigeria: what really changed?

PubMed

Sojobi, Adebayo Olatunbosun; Balogun, Isaac Idowu; Salami, Adebayo Wahab

2015-10-01

Our study revealed periodicities of 2.3 and 2.25 years in wet and dry seasons and periodicities of 2 to 5 years on seasonal and annual timescales. Minimum temperature (Tmin), maximum temperature (Tmax) and evaporation recorded increases of 2.47, 1.37 and 28.37 %, respectively, but a reduction of 19.58 % in rainfall on decadal timescale. Periodicity of 8 to 12 years was also observed in annual Tmax. Cramer's test indicated a warming trend with significant Tmax increase in February, April, July, August, October and November during 2000-2009 on decadal monthly timescale, a significant decline in Summer rainfall but significant Tmax increase in Spring, Autumn and Winter on decadal seasonal timescale. The low correlation of rainfall with temperature parameters and evaporation indicates that advection of moisture into Lagos State seems to be the dominant mechanism controlling rainfall within the State alongside other tropical and extra-tropical factors. In addition, our study revealed that the persistent state of minimum temperature often precedes the arrival and reversal of the phase of maximum temperature. Furthermore, our study also revealed that extreme and high variable rainfalls, which are associated with the increased warming trend, had periodicities of 1 to 3 years with a probability of 86.45 % of occurring every 3 years between April and September. It is recommended that government and private sector should give financial and technical supports to climate researches in order to appropriately inform policy making to improve the adaptive capacity and resilience of Lagos State against climate change impacts and guard against maladaptation.

[Freezing resistance and injury indices for different cultivars of winter-spring wheat in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. I . Comparison of freezing resistance for different cultivars of winter-spring wheat during mid-winter period].

PubMed

Mu, Cheng-ying; Yang, Xiao-guang; Yang, Jie; Li, Ke-nan; Zheng, Dong-xiao

2015-10-01

The relationships between mortality rate and low temperature for different cultivars of winter-spring wheat during mid-winter period were identified through two-year outdoor potting experiments and indoor manually controlled freezing experiments. We defined the lethally critical temperature and the density of antifreeze capability when the mortality rate reached 10%, 20% and 50% for different cultivars of winter-spring wheat during mid-winter period. The strong-winterness wheat (Yanda 1817 and Jing 411) showed the best freezing resistance and the 50%-lethal temperatures (LT50) of these two cultivars were -21.5 °C and -21.2 °C, respectively. The freezing resistance of winterness wheat and weak-winternes wheat were worse than that of strong-winterness wheat. The LT50 of winterness wheat cultivars Nongda 211 and Nongda 5363 were -21.1 °C and -20.3 °C, while that of weak-winterness wheat cultivars Zheng 366 and Ping' an 8 were -18.5 °C and -18.4 °C , respectively. Springness wheat (Zheng 9023 and Yanzhan 4110) showed the worst freezing resistance, and the LT50 were -15.4 °C and -14.7 °C, respectively. When temperature declined to freezing injury occurred, mortality rate increment for weak-winterness wheat was the highest for each 1 °C decrease. The mortality rates of weak-winterness wheat cultivars Zheng 366 and Ping' an 8 increased by 16.8% and 25.8%, and that of winterness wheat cultivars Nongda 211 and Nongda 5363 increased by 14.7% and 18.9%. The mortality rate of strong-winterness wheat cultivars Yanda 1817 and Jing 411 increased by 15.4% and 13.1%, and that of springiness wheat cultivas Zheng 9023 and Yanzhan 4110 increased by 13.8% and 15.1%. Comparatively, if temperature decreased continuously after the occurrence of freezing injury, the weak-winterness wheat would suffer greater risk.

Seasonally frozen layer in natural and drained peatlands at the South of West Siberia, Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dyukarev, Egor; Kiselev, Maxim; Voropay, Nadezhda; Preis, Yulia

2017-04-01

The temperature regime of soils in natural and drained peatlands at Bakchar bog located in the South Taiga zone of West Siberia is studied. Soil temperature for depths up to 320 cm was registered using autonomous temperature profile recorder during the period from August 2010 to September 2016. Maximal and minimal temperatures were registered at surface in July and February, consequently. Extreme soil temperatures at 320 cm depth shifts to December (maximum) and July (minimum) reducing absolute values. Annual peat soil temperature amplitude decrease with depth from 21,8 °C on surface to 1,1 °C at 320 cm. The analysis of daily, month and annual mean data of temperature in peat soil has shown that seasonally frozen layer was registered up to 20-60 cm depth. The duration of seasonally freeze layer existence varies from 130 to 180 days. Drained peatlands with the lowest water table have highest freeze depth. Soil at water-logged sedge-sphagnum fen in winter is warmer than soil in ryam ecosystem and mineral soil at upland. Maximal freezing depth in peatlands is up to 3 times lower than at drain areas.

Seasonality of diarrheagenic Escherichia coli pathotypes in the US students acquiring diarrhea in Mexico.

PubMed

Paredes-Paredes, Mercedes; Okhuysen, Pablo C; Flores, Jose; Mohamed, Jamal A; Padda, Ranjit S; Gonzalez-Estrada, Alexei; Haley, Clinton A; Carlin, Lily G; Nair, Parvathy; DuPont, Herbert L

2011-01-01

Up to 60% of the US visitors to Mexico develop travelers' diarrhea (TD). In Mexico, rates of diarrhea have been associated with the rainy season and increase in ambient temperature. However, the seasonality of the various diarrheagenic Escherichia coli pathotypes in travelers has not been well described. A study was undertaken to determine if ambient temperature and rainfall have an impact on the acquisition of TD due to different diarrheagenic E coli pathotypes in Mexico. We conducted a cohort study of the US adult students traveling to Cuernavaca, Mexico, who were followed during their stay and provided a stool sample with the onset of TD. The presence of E coli was analyzed by a direct fecal multiplex polymerase chain reaction for common E coli pathotypes including enterotoxigenic, enteropathogenic, enteroinvasive, shiga toxin-producing, and enteroaggregative E coli (ETEC, EPEC, EIEC, STEC, and EAEC respectively). The presence of pathotypes was correlated with daily rainfall, average, maximum, and minimum temperatures. A total of 515 adults were enrolled from January 2006 to February 2007. The weekly attack rate of TD for newly arrived travelers was lower in the winter months (range 6.8%-16.3%) than in summer months (range 11.5%-25%; p = 0.05). The rate of ETEC infection increased by 7% for each degree centigrade increase in weekly ambient temperature (p = 0.003). In contrast, EPEC and EAEC were identified in similar proportions during the winter and summer seasons. Temperature variations in central Mexico influenced the rate of ETEC but not EAEC-associated diarrhea in the US visitors. This epidemiological finding could influence seasonal recommendations for the use of ETEC vaccines in Mexico. © 2011 International Society of Travel Medicine.

Effects of living at two ambient temperatures on 24-h blood pressure and neuroendocrine function among obese and non-obese humans: a pilot study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanikowska, Dominika; Sato, Maki; Iwase, Satoshi; Shimizu, Yuuki; Nishimura, Naoki; Inukai, Yoko; Sugenoya, Junichi

2013-05-01

The effects of environmental temperature on blood pressure and hormones in obese subjects in Japan were compared in two seasons: summer vs winter. Five obese (BMI, 32 ± 5 kg/m2) and five non-obese (BMI, 23 ±3 kg/m2) men participated in this experiment at latitude 35°10' N and longitude 136°57.9' E. The average environmental temperature was 29 ± 1 °C in summer and 3 ± 1 °C in winter. Blood samples were analyzed for leptin, ghrelin, catecholamines, thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH), free thyroxine (fT4), free triiodothyronine (fT3), total cholesterol, triglycerides, insulin and glucose. Blood pressure was measured over the course of 24 h in summer and winter. A Japanese version of the Profile of Mood States (POMS) questionnaire was also administered each season. Systolic and diastolic blood pressures in obese men were significantly higher in winter (lower environmental temperatures) than in summer (higher environmental temperatures). Noradrenaline and dopamine concentrations were also significantly higher at lower environmental temperatures in obese subjects, but ghrelin, TSH, fT3, fT4, insulin and glucose were not significantly different in summer and winter between obese and non-obese subjects. Leptin, total cholesterol and triglyceride concentrations were significantly higher in winter in obese than non-obese men. Results from the POMS questionnaire showed a significant rise in Confusion at lower environmental temperatures (winter) in obese subjects. In this pilot study, increased blood pressure may have been due to increased secretion of noradrenaline in obese men in winter, and the results suggest that blood pressure control in obese men is particularly important in winter.

Modelling the influence of elevation and snow regime on winter stream temperature in the rain-on-snow zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leach, J.; Moore, D.

2015-12-01

Winter stream temperature of coastal mountain catchments influences fish growth and development. Transient snow cover and advection associated with lateral throughflow inputs are dominant controls on stream thermal regimes in these regions. Existing stream temperature models lack the ability to properly simulate these processes. Therefore, we developed and evaluated a conceptual-parametric catchment-scale stream temperature model that includes the role of transient snow cover and lateral advection associated with throughflow. The model provided reasonable estimates of observed stream temperature at three test catchments. We used the model to simulate winter stream temperature for virtual catchments located at different elevations within the rain-on-snow zone. The modelling exercise examined stream temperature response associated with interactions between elevation, snow regime, and changes in air temperature. Modelling results highlight that the sensitivity of winter stream temperature response to changes in climate may be dependent on catchment elevation and landscape position.

Record-breaking ozone loss in the Arctic winter 2010/2011: comparison with 1996/1997

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuttippurath, J.; Godin-Beekmann, S.; Lefèvre, F.; Nikulin, G.; Santee, M. L.; Froidevaux, L.

2012-03-01

We present a detailed discussion of the chemical and dynamical processes in the Arctic winters 1996/1997 and 2010/2011 with high resolution chemical transport model (CTM) simulations and space-based observations. In the Arctic winter 2010/2011, the lower stratospheric minimum temperatures were below 195 K for a record period, from December to mid-April, and a strong and stable vortex was present during that period. Analyses with the Mimosa-Chim CTM simulations show that the chemical ozone loss started by early January and progressed slowly to 1 ppmv (parts per million by volume) by late February. The loss intensified by early March and reached a record maximum of ~2.4 ppmv in the late March-early April period over a broad altitude range of 450-550 K. This coincides with elevated ozone loss rates of 2-4 ppbv sh-1 (parts per billion by volume/sunlit hour) and a contribution of about 40% from the ClO-ClO cycle and about 35-40% from the ClO-BrO cycle in late February and March, and about 30-50% from the HOx cycle in April. We also estimate a loss of around 0.7-1.2 ppmv contributed (75%) by the NOx cycle at 550-700 K. The ozone loss estimated in the partial column range of 350-550 K also exhibits a record value of ~148 DU (Dobson Unit). This is the largest ozone loss ever estimated in the Arctic and is consistent with the remarkable chlorine activation and strong denitrification (40-50%) during the winter, as the modeled ClO shows ~1.8 ppbv in early January and ~1 ppbv in March at 450-550 K. These model results are in excellent agreement with those found from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder observations. Our analyses also show that the ozone loss in 2010/2011 is close to that found in some Antarctic winters, for the first time in the observed history. Though the winter 1996/1997 was also very cold in March-April, the temperatures were higher in December-February, and, therefore, chlorine activation was moderate and ozone loss was average with about 1.2 ppmv at 475-550 K or 42 DU at 350-550 K, as diagnosed from the model simulations and measurements.

Record-breaking ozone loss in the Arctic winter 2010/2011: comparison with 1996/1997

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuttippurath, J.; Godin-Beekmann, S.; Lefèvre, F.; Nikulin, G.; Santee, M. L.; Froidevaux, L.

2012-08-01

We present a detailed discussion of the chemical and dynamical processes in the Arctic winters 1996/1997 and 2010/2011 with high resolution chemical transport model (CTM) simulations and space-based observations. In the Arctic winter 2010/2011, the lower stratospheric minimum temperatures were below 195 K for a record period of time, from December to mid-April, and a strong and stable vortex was present during that period. Simulations with the Mimosa-Chim CTM show that the chemical ozone loss started in early January and progressed slowly to 1 ppmv (parts per million by volume) by late February. The loss intensified by early March and reached a record maximum of ~2.4 ppmv in the late March-early April period over a broad altitude range of 450-550 K. This coincides with elevated ozone loss rates of 2-4 ppbv sh-1 (parts per billion by volume/sunlit hour) and a contribution of about 30-55% and 30-35% from the ClO-ClO and ClO-BrO cycles, respectively, in late February and March. In addition, a contribution of 30-50% from the HOx cycle is also estimated in April. We also estimate a loss of about 0.7-1.2 ppmv contributed (75%) by the NOx cycle at 550-700 K. The ozone loss estimated in the partial column range of 350-550 K exhibits a record value of ~148 DU (Dobson Unit). This is the largest ozone loss ever estimated in the Arctic and is consistent with the remarkable chlorine activation and strong denitrification (40-50%) during the winter, as the modeled ClO shows ~1.8 ppbv in early January and ~1 ppbv in March at 450-550 K. These model results are in excellent agreement with those found from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder observations. Our analyses also show that the ozone loss in 2010/2011 is close to that found in some Antarctic winters, for the first time in the observed history. Though the winter 1996/1997 was also very cold in March-April, the temperatures were higher in December-February, and, therefore, chlorine activation was moderate and ozone loss was average with about 1.2 ppmv at 475-550 K or 42 DU at 350-550 K, as diagnosed from the model simulations and measurements.

Decrease in glacier coverage contributes to increased winter baseflow of Arctic rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liljedahl, A. K.; Gaedeke, A.; Baraer, M.; Chesnokova, A.; Lebedeva, L.; Makarieva, O.; O'Neel, S.

2016-12-01

Rising minimum daily flows in northern Eurasian and North American rivers suggest a growing influence of groundwater in the Arctic hydrological cycle, while the impact of a warmer high-latitude climate system is evident in decreased glacier coverage and increasing permafrost temperatures. Multiple mechanisms have been proposed to explain the increased discharge, which is well documented but relatively poorly understood. Here we assess the long-term (up to 88 yrs) linkages between climate, glaciers and hydrology in Alaska, Canadian and Russian glacierized (from 0.3 to 60% glacier cover) and non-glacierized watersheds (31 to 186 000 km2). We are specifically interested in analyzing trends in late winter discharge from larger watersheds to refine our understanding of the regional aquifer status and annual discharge from smaller headwater basins. Field measurements of differential runoff in Interior Alaska show that glaciated headwater streams can lose significant amounts of water in summer to the underlying aquifer. The aquifer is in turn feeding the larger lowland river system throughout the year. Groundwater storage status in Arctic regions is especially prominent through winter river discharge as it is typically the only source of water to the river system for at least 6 months of the year. Our analyses aim to explore the hypothesis that the documented increase in later winter river discharge of larger watersheds can be explained at least partly, by increased glacier melt in summer as observed by long-term decreases in glacier coverage. If true, a decrease in winter freshwater exports to the Arctic Ocean could potentially follow as glaciers retreat to higher (cooler) elevations. Increased Arctic river baseflow can favor sea ice growth and fish habitats, while negatively impacting local communities in their river ice travel.

Impact of the Dominant Large-scale Teleconnections on Winter Temperature Variability over East Asia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lim, Young-Kwon; Kim, Hae-Dong

2013-01-01

Monthly mean geopotential height for the past 33 DJF seasons archived in Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications reanalysis is decomposed into the large-scale teleconnection patterns to explain their impacts on winter temperature variability over East Asia. Following Arctic Oscillation (AO) that explains the largest variance, East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR), West Pacific (WP) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are identified as the first four leading modes that significantly explain East Asian winter temperature variation. While the northern part of East Asia north of 50N is prevailed by AO and EA/WR impacts, temperature in the midlatitudes (30N-50N), which include Mongolia, northeastern China, Shandong area, Korea, and Japan, is influenced by combined effect of the four leading teleconnections. ENSO impact on average over 33 winters is relatively weaker than the impact of the other three teleconnections. WP impact, which has received less attention than ENSO in earlier studies, characterizes winter temperatures over Korea, Japan, and central to southern China region south of 30N mainly by advective process from the Pacific. Upper level wave activity fluxes reveal that, for the AO case, the height and circulation anomalies affecting midlatitude East Asian winter temperature is mainly located at higher latitudes north of East Asia. Distribution of the fluxes also explains that the stationary wave train associated with EA/WR propagates southeastward from the western Russia, affecting the East Asian winter temperature. Investigation on the impact of each teleconnection for the selected years reveals that the most dominant teleconnection over East Asia is not the same at all years, indicating a great deal of interannual variability. Comparison in temperature anomaly distributions between observation and temperature anomaly constructed using the combined effect of four leading teleconnections clearly show a reasonable consistency between them, demonstrating that the seasonal winter temperature distributions over East Asia are substantially explained by these four large-scale circulation impacts.

Seasonal- and temperature-dependent variation in CNS ascorbate and glutathione levels in anoxia-tolerant turtles.

PubMed

Pérez-Pinzón, M A; Rice, M E

1995-12-24

We determined the ascorbic acid (ascorbate) and glutathione (GSH) contents of eight regions of the CNS from anoxia-tolerant turtles collected in summer and in winter. Ascorbate was of special interest because it is found in exceptionally high levels in the turtle CNS. The temperature-dependence of CNS ascorbate content was established by comparing levels in animals collected from two geographic zones with different average winter temperatures and in animals re-acclimated to different temperatures in the laboratory. The analytical method was liquid chromatography with electrochemical detection. Turtle ascorbate levels were 30-40% lower in animals acclimatized to winter (2 degrees C) than to summer (23 degrees C) in all regions of the CNS. Similarly, GSH levels were 20-30% lower in winter than in summer. Winter ascorbate levels were higher in turtles from Louisiana (19 degrees C) than in turtles acclimatized to winter in Wisconsin (2 degrees C). Summer and winter levels of ascorbate could be reversed by re-acclimating animals to cold (1 degree C) or warm (23 degrees C) temperatures for at least one week. CNS water content did not differ between cold- and warm-acclimated turtles. Taken together, the data indicated that ascorbate and GSH undergo significant seasonal variation and that the catalyst for change is environmental temperature. Steady-state ascorbate content showed a linear dependence on temperature, with a slope of 1.5% per degree C that was independent of CNS region. Lower levels of cerebral antioxidants in turtles exposed to colder temperatures were consistent with the decreased rate of cerebral metabolism that accompanies winter hibernation. Cerebral ascorbate and GSH levels in the turtle remained similar to or higher than those in mammals, even during winter, however. These findings support the notion that unique mechanisms of antioxidant regulation in the turtle contribute to their tolerance of the hypoxia-reoxygenation that characterizes diving behavior.

Raising of Operating a Motor Vehicle Effects on Environment in Winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ertman, S. A.; Ertman, J. A.; Zakharov, D. A.

2016-08-01

Severe low-temperature conditions, in which considerable part of Russian Motor Park is operated, affect vehicles negatively. Cold weather causes higher fuel consumption and C02 emissions always. It is because of temperature profile changing of automobile motors, other systems and materials. For enhancement of car operation efficiency in severe winter environment the dependency of engine warm-up and cooling time on ambient air temperature and wind speed described by multifactorial mathematical models is established. -On the basis of experimental research it was proved that the coolant temperature constitutes the engine representative temperature and may be used as representative temperature of engine at large. The model of generation of integrated index for vehicle adaptability to winter operating conditions by temperature profile of engines was developed. the method for evaluation of vehicle adaptability to winter operating conditions by temperature profile of engines allows to decrease higher fuel consumption in cold climate.

Fossil palm beetles refine upland winter temperatures in the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum.

PubMed

Archibald, S Bruce; Morse, Geoffrey E; Greenwood, David R; Mathewes, Rolf W

2014-06-03

Eocene climate and associated biotic patterns provide an analog system to understand their modern interactions. The relationship between mean annual temperatures and winter temperatures-temperature seasonality-may be an important factor in this dynamic. Fossils of frost-intolerant palms imply low Eocene temperature seasonality into high latitudes, constraining average winter temperatures there to >8 °C. However, their presence in a paleocommunity may be obscured by taphonomic and identification factors for macrofossils and pollen. We circumvented these problems by establishing the presence of obligate palm-feeding beetles (Chrysomelidae: Pachymerina) at three localities (a fourth, tentatively) in microthermal to lower mesothermal Early Eocene upland communities in Washington and British Columbia. This provides support for warmer winter Eocene climates extending northward into cooler Canadian uplands.

Oral temperatures of the elderly in nursing homes in summer and winter in relation to activities of daily living

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakamura, K.; Tanaka, Masatoshi; Motohashi, Yutaka; Maeda, Akira

This study was conducted to clarify the seasonal difference in body temperature in summer and winter, and to document the thermal environment of the elderly living in nursing homes. The subjects were 57 healthy elderly people aged >=63 years living in two nursing homes in Japan. One of the homes was characterized by subjects with low levels of activities of daily living (ADL). Oral temperatures were measured in the morning and afternoon, with simultaneous recording of ambient temperature and relative humidity. Oral temperatures in summer were higher than in winter, with statistically significant differences (P<0.05) of 0.25 (SD 0.61) °C in the morning and 0.24 (SD 0.50) °C in the afternoon. Differences between oral temperatures in summer and winter tended to be greater in subjects with low ADL scores, even when their room temperature was well-controlled. In conclusion, the oral temperatures of the elderly are lower in winter than summer, particularly in physically inactive people. It appears that those with low levels of ADL are more vulnerable to large changes in ambient temperature.

Quantifying the risks of winter damage on overwintering crops under future climates: Will low-temperature damage be more likely in warmer climates?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vico, G.; Weih, M.

2014-12-01

Autumn-sown crops act as winter cover crop, reducing soil erosion and nutrient leaching, while potentially providing higher yields than spring varieties in many environments. Nevertheless, overwintering crops are exposed for longer periods to the vagaries of weather conditions. Adverse winter conditions, in particular, may negatively affect the final yield, by reducing crop survival or its vigor. The net effect of the projected shifts in climate is unclear. On the one hand, warmer temperatures may reduce the frequency of low temperatures, thereby reducing damage risk. On the other hand, warmer temperatures, by reducing plant acclimation level and the amount and duration of snow cover, may increase the likelihood of damage. Thus, warmer climates may paradoxically result in more extensive low temperature damage and reduced viability for overwintering plants. The net effect of a shift in climate is explored by means of a parsimonious probabilistic model, based on a coupled description of air temperature, snow cover, and crop tolerable temperature. Exploiting an extensive dataset of winter wheat responses to low temperature exposure, the risk of winter damage occurrence is quantified under conditions typical of northern temperate latitudes. The full spectrum of variations expected with climate change is explored, quantifying the joint effects of alterations in temperature averages and their variability as well as shifts in precipitation. The key features affecting winter wheat vulnerability to low temperature damage under future climates are singled out.

Winter climate limits subantarctic low forest growth and establishment.

PubMed

Harsch, Melanie A; McGlone, Matt S; Wilmshurst, Janet M

2014-01-01

Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52 °S, 169 °E) is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality  =  -5) with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of c. 0.6 °C since the 1940's has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium over the second half of the 20th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C), dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm). Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally.

Winter Climate Limits Subantarctic Low Forest Growth and Establishment

PubMed Central

Harsch, Melanie A.; McGlone, Matt S.; Wilmshurst, Janet M.

2014-01-01

Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52°S, 169°E) is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality  = −5) with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of c. 0.6°C since the 1940's has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium over the second half of the 20th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C), dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm). Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally. PMID:24691026

Observed Changes in the Himalayan Glaciers: Multiple Driving Factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romshoo, Shakil; Rashid, Irfan; Abdullah, Tariq; Fayaz, Midhat

2017-04-01

There is lack of credible knowledge about Himalayan cryosphere as is evident from the contradictory reports about the status of the glaciers in the region. Glacier behavior in Himalaya has to be understood and interpreted in light of the multiple driving factors; topography, climate and anthropocene. The observed changes in Himalayan glaciers, determined by studying a few hundred glaciers in the Himalaya, indicated that the glacier response varies across different ranges. Satellite images (1990-2015), DEM, altimetry data supported by selective field campaigns, were used to map the changes in glacier boundaries, snout, ELA, AAR, volume, thickness, debris cover and several other glacier parameters. The glaciers across the six ranges of Pir Panjal (PR), Greater Himalaya (GH), Shamasbari (SR), Zanaskar (ZR), Leh (LR) and Karakorum (KR) showed quite varied changes. It was observed that the glaciers in the KR show the least glacial area recession (1.59%) primarily due to the extreme cold winters with -18oC average temperature. Other glacial parameters like snout, ELA, AAR and glacier volume also showed very little changes in the KR during the period. The glaciers in the LR, with an average winter temperature of -6o C, have shrunk, on an average, by 4.19 % during the period, followed by the glaciers in the ZR showing a loss of 5.46%. The highest glacier retreat of 7.72% and 6.94% was observed in the GH and SR with the average winter temperature of -1.3oc and -6.2oc respectively. In the PR, almost all the glaciers have vanished during the last 6-7 decades due to the increasing winter temperatures. The glaciers in the Kashmir showed an overall recession of 26.40% in area which is one of the highest reported for the Himalayan glaciers. The glaciers in the valley showed the maximum reduction in thickness (2.56m) using the IceSat data from 2000-08 while as the Karakoram glaciers showed the least reduction in thickness (0.53m). It was found that the maximum recession of glacial area was observed in the mountainous ranges with altitudes below 4500m asl The glaciers above 5000m showed the lowest rate of glacial retreat in the region. The other parameters like snout retreat, ELA changes, volume and other parameters observed in all the six ranges also showed strong correlation with topography. Detailed analyses of the topographic, climatic and black carbon emission data was carried out to understand the enhanced glacial recession observed in the Kashmir valley. The climate change signals are quite loud and clear in the region and the higher rates of recession are due to the significant increase in the observed minimum winter temperatures. In Kashmir, precipitation is falling more as rain than snow due to the warming in winter. Further, the concentration of black carbon in the valley is highest compared to the other high altitude station in the Himalaya (5.9 gm-2). All these factors are responsible for the decrease in the volume and extent of the glaciers in Kashmir Himalaya.

Implications of potential future grand solar minimum for ozone layer and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arsenovic, Pavle; Rozanov, Eugene; Anet, Julien; Stenke, Andrea; Schmutz, Werner; Peter, Thomas

2018-03-01

Continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are expected to cause further global warming throughout the 21st century. Understanding the role of natural forcings and their influence on global warming is thus of great interest. Here we investigate the impact of a recently proposed 21st century grand solar minimum on atmospheric chemistry and climate using the SOCOL3-MPIOM chemistry-climate model with an interactive ocean element. We examine five model simulations for the period 2000-2199, following the greenhouse gas concentration scenario RCP4.5 and a range of different solar forcings. The reference simulation is forced by perpetual repetition of solar cycle 23 until the year 2199. This reference is compared with grand solar minimum simulations, assuming a strong decline in solar activity of 3.5 and 6.5 W m-2, respectively, that last either until 2199 or recover in the 22nd century. Decreased solar activity by 6.5 W m-2 is found to yield up to a doubling of the GHG-induced stratospheric and mesospheric cooling. Under the grand solar minimum scenario, tropospheric temperatures are also projected to decrease compared to the reference. On the global scale a reduced solar forcing compensates for at most 15 % of the expected greenhouse warming at the end of the 21st and around 25 % at the end of the 22nd century. The regional effects are predicted to be significant, in particular in northern high-latitude winter. In the stratosphere, the reduction of around 15 % of incoming ultraviolet radiation leads to a decrease in ozone production by up to 8 %, which overcompensates for the anticipated ozone increase due to reduced stratospheric temperatures and an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. This, in turn, leads to a delay in total ozone column recovery from anthropogenic halogen-induced depletion, with a global ozone recovery to the pre-ozone hole values happening only upon completion of the grand solar minimum.

Interactions with a Weather-Sensitive Decision Maker: A Case Study Incorporating ENSO Information into a Strategy for Purchasing Natural Gas.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Changnon, David; Creech, Tamara; Marsili, Nathan; Murrell, William; Saxinger, Michael

1999-06-01

During the 1997/98 El Niño event, a Northern Illinois University (NIU) faculty member and a group of undergraduate meteorology students interacted with the university's heating plant manager to determine whether climate information and forecast tools could assist him with NIU's natural gas purchase decisions each fall. Based on the El Niño-driven temperature forecasts and information developed by the faculty-directed student group, which indicated that northern Illinois would experience a warmer than average winter (December through March), the manager chose the option to ride the market on a continuous basis, buying incrementally to reduce total natural gas expenditures, rather than lock into a fixed price.To aid this annual decision process, winter El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) classifications, based on sea surface temperature (SST) data measured in the Niño-3 region, were analyzed to determine whether relationships existed between local mean winter temperature and the ENSO phenomena during the 1951-97 period. An SST ENSO model, which uses the past winter's ENSO state along with the SST trends from April through September, was developed to predict the upcoming winter's temperatures (above, near, or below average). The model predicted an 83% chance of a winter experiencing average to below-average temperatures following an El Niño winter, regardless of trend. Those winters following a non-ENSO winter with steady or increasing SST trends experienced average or above-average temperatures 79% of the time. These results supported the manager's natural gas decision, which in turn saved NIU approximately $500,000 and aided in the university's decision to hire a full-time applied meteorologist to provide advice on a continuing basis.

Altitudinal and climatic adaptation is mediated by flowering traits and FRI, FLC, and PHYC genes in Arabidopsis.

PubMed

Méndez-Vigo, Belén; Picó, F Xavier; Ramiro, Mercedes; Martínez-Zapater, José M; Alonso-Blanco, Carlos

2011-12-01

Extensive natural variation has been described for the timing of flowering initiation in many annual plants, including the model wild species Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana), which is presumed to be involved in adaptation to different climates. However, the environmental factors that might shape this genetic variation, as well as the molecular bases of climatic adaptation by modifications of flowering time, remain mostly unknown. To approach both goals, we characterized the flowering behavior in relation to vernalization of 182 Arabidopsis wild genotypes collected in a native region spanning a broad climatic range. Phenotype-environment association analyses identified strong altitudinal clines (0-2600 m) in seven out of nine flowering-related traits. Altitudinal clines were dissected in terms of minimum winter temperature and precipitation, indicating that these are the main climatic factors that might act as selective pressures on flowering traits. In addition, we used an association analysis approach with four candidate genes, FRIGIDA (FRI), FLOWERING LOCUS C (FLC), PHYTOCHROME C (PHYC), and CRYPTOCHROME2, to decipher the genetic bases of this variation. Eleven different loss-of-function FRI alleles of low frequency accounted for up to 16% of the variation for most traits. Furthermore, an FLC allelic series of six novel putative loss- and change-of-function alleles, with low to moderate frequency, revealed that a broader FLC functional diversification might contribute to flowering variation. Finally, environment-genotype association analyses showed that the spatial patterns of FRI, FLC, and PHYC polymorphisms are significantly associated with winter temperatures and spring and winter precipitations, respectively. These results support that allelic variation in these genes is involved in climatic adaptation.

Climate Warming May Threaten Reproductive Diapause of a Highly Eusocial Bee.

PubMed

Dos Santos, Charles Fernando; Acosta, André Luis; Nunes-Silva, Patrícia; Saraiva, Antonio Mauro; Blochtein, Betina

2015-08-01

Climate changes are predicted to affect the diapause of many insect species around the world adversely. In this context, bees are of interest due to their pollination services. In southern Brazil, the highly eusocial bee species Plebeia droryana (Friese) (Hymenoptera: Apidae: Meliponini) exhibits reproductive diapause in response to the region's rigorous winters. That diapause is characterized by a temporary interruption in brood cell construction by nurse bees and egg-laying by the queen, regardless of other internal tasks underway in the nests. In this study, we evaluated whether P. droryana enter diapause under experimental conditions. P. droryana colonies were kept in a germination chamber, and the temperature was progressively reduced from 20°C over a period of a few weeks until diapause was detected. Additionally, we also estimated the environmental conditions in the actual geographic range occupied by P. droryana and modeled it for predicted changes in climate up to the year 2080. Our findings indicate that P. droryana enter diapause between 10 and 8°C. We also found that the current minimum winter temperature (10.1°C, median) in the distributional range of P. droryana will probably rise (13.4°C, median). Thus, if our experimental data are somewhat accurate, ∼36% of the southern Brazilian P. droryana population may be active during the expected milder winter months in 2080. In this scenario, there may be a larger demand for pollen and nectar for that bee species. Greater conservation efforts will be required to preserve P. droryana populations and keep them viable in the coming decades. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Pooled versus separate tree-ring δD measurements, and implications for reconstruction of the Arctic Oscillation in northwestern China.

PubMed

Liu, Xiaohong; An, Wenling; Treydte, Kerstin; Wang, Wenzhi; Xu, Guobao; Zeng, Xiaomin; Wu, Guoju; Wang, Bo; Zhang, Xuanwen

2015-04-01

Stable hydrogen isotope ratios (δD) in tree rings are an attractive but still rarely explored terrestrial archive of past climatic information. Because the preparation of the cellulose nitrate for δD measurements requires more wood and a longer preparation time than preparation techniques for other isotopes in cellulose (δ18O or δ13C), it is challenging to obtain high-resolution records, especially for slow-growing trees at high elevations and in boreal regions. Here, we tested whether annually pooled samples of Qinghai spruce (Picea crassifolia Kom.) trees from northwestern China provided results similar to those derived as the mean of individual measurements of the same trees and whether the resulting chronologies recorded useful climate information. Inter-tree variability of δD was higher than that of measured ring width for the same trees. We found higher and significant coherence between pooled and mean isotope chronologies than that among the individual series. It showed a logarithmic relationship between ring mass and δD; however, accounting for the influence of ring mass on δD values only slightly improved the strength of climatic signals in the pooled records. Tree-ring δD was significantly positively correlated with the mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures during the previous winter and with maximum temperature during the current August, and significantly negatively correlated with precipitation in the previous November to January and the current July. The winter climate signal seems to dominate tree-ring δD through the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, i.e. the Arctic Oscillation. These results will facilitate reconstruction of winter atmospheric circulation patterns over northwestern China based on a regional tree-ring δD networks. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Solar Cycle/Seasonal Variations of H, D, H2 and He Distributions and Escape on Mars as Determined by the Mars Thermosphere Global Circulation Model (MTGCM)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bougher, Stephen

2005-01-01

The Mars Thermosphere General Circulation Model (MTGCM) was exercised for Ls = 90 (aphelion) solar minimum, and Ls = 270 perihelion) solar maximum conditions. Simulated MTGCM outputs (i.e. helium density distributions) were compared to those previously observed for Earth and Venus. Winter polar night bulges of helium are predicted on Mars, similar to those observed on the nightside of Venus and in the winter polar regions of Earth. A poster on this research was presented at the European Geophysical Society Meeting (EGS) in 2003. This research paves the way for what might be expected in the polar night regions of Mars during upcoming aerobraking and mapping Campaigns. Lastly, Mars thermosphere (approx. 100-130 km) winter polar warming was observed at high Northern latitudes during the perihelion season, but not at high Southern latitudes during the opposite aphelion season. Presumably, the Mars thermospheric circulation is responsible for the dynamically controlled heating needed to warm polar night temperatures above radiative equilibrium values. Again, MTGCM simulations were conducted for Ls = 90 and Ls = 270 conditions; polar temperatures were examined and found to be much warmer at Northern high latitudes (perihelion) than at Southern high latitudes (aphelion), similar to Mars aerobraking datasets. The Mars thermospheric circulation is found to be stronger during perihelion solstice conditions than during aphelion conditions, owing to both stronger seasonal solar and dust heating during Mars perihelion. An invited talk was given at the Spring AGU 2004 on this research. A forthcoming GRL paper was drafted on this same topic, but not submitted before the termination of this 1-year grant.

2008 Volunteer Potato Outlook

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Potato tubers left in the ground following a potato harvest often over winter in regions with mild winter temperatures resulting in a serious and difficult to manage weed problem in the ensuing crop rotation. Potatoes normally are killed when they reach temperatures below 28° F. Winter soil tempera...

Variability of Winter Air Temperature in Mid-Latitude Europe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Otterman, J.; Ardizzone, J.; Atlas, R.; Bungato, D.; Cierniewski, J.; Jusem, J. C.; Przybylak, R.; Schubert, S.; Starr, D.; Walczewski, J.

2002-01-01

The aim of this paper is to report extreme winter/early-spring air temperature (hereinafter temperature) anomalies in mid-latitude Europe, and to discuss the underlying forcing to these interannual fluctuations. Warm advection from the North Atlantic in late winter controls the surface-air temperature, as indicated by the substantial correlation between the speed of the surface southwesterlies over the eastern North Atlantic (quantified by a specific Index Ina) and the 2-meter level air temperatures (hereinafter Ts) over Europe, 45-60 deg N, in winter. In mid-March and subsequently, the correlation drops drastically (quite often it is negative). This change in the relationship between Ts and Ina marks a transition in the control of the surface-air temperature: absorption of insolation replaces the warm advection as the dominant control. This forcing by maritime-air advection in winter was demonstrated in a previous publication, and is re-examined here in conjunction with extreme fluctuations of temperatures in Europe. We analyze here the interannual variability at its extreme by comparing warm-winter/early-spring of 1989/90 with the opposite scenario in 1995/96. For these two December-to-March periods the differences in the monthly mean temperature in Warsaw and Torun, Poland, range above 10 C. Short-term (shorter than a month) fluctuations of the temperature are likewise very strong. We conduct pentad-by-pentad analysis of the surface-maximum air temperature (hereinafter Tmax), in a selected location, examining the dependence on Ina. The increased cloudiness and higher amounts of total precipitable water, corollary effects to the warm low-level advection. in the 1989/90 winter, enhance the positive temperature anomalies. The analysis of the ocean surface winds is based on the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) dataset; ascent rates, and over land wind data are from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF); maps of 2-m temperature, cloud cover and precipitable water are from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis.

Impact of warm winters on microbial growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birgander, Johanna; Rousk, Johannes; Axel Olsson, Pål

2014-05-01

Growth of soil bacteria has an asymmetrical response to higher temperature with a gradual increase with increasing temperatures until an optimum after which a steep decline occurs. In laboratory studies it has been shown that by exposing a soil bacterial community to a temperature above the community's optimum temperature for two months, the bacterial community grows warm-adapted, and the optimum temperature of bacterial growth shifts towards higher temperatures. This result suggests a change in the intrinsic temperature dependence of bacterial growth, as temperature influenced the bacterial growth even though all other factors were kept constant. An intrinsic temperature dependence could be explained by either a change in the bacterial community composition, exchanging less tolerant bacteria towards more tolerant ones, or it could be due to adaptation within the bacteria present. No matter what the shift in temperature tolerance is due to, the shift could have ecosystem scale implications, as winters in northern Europe are getting warmer. To address the question of how microbes and plants are affected by warmer winters, a winter-warming experiment was established in a South Swedish grassland. Results suggest a positive response in microbial growth rate in plots where winter soil temperatures were around 6 °C above ambient. Both bacterial and fungal growth (leucine incorporation, and acetate into ergosterol incorporation, respectively) appeared stimulated, and there are two candidate explanations for these results. Either (i) warming directly influence microbial communities by modulating their temperature adaptation, or (ii) warming indirectly affected the microbial communities via temperature induced changes in bacterial growth conditions. The first explanation is in accordance with what has been shown in laboratory conditions (explained above), where the differences in the intrinsic temperature relationships were examined. To test this explanation the temperature relationships of the bacterial community from winter-warmed plots and plots with ambient soil temperatures were compared. No change in optimum temperature for growth could be detected, indicating that the microbial community has not been warm-adapted. This fits with what was seen also in the laboratory experiment where no changes in temperature response occurred when exposing bacteria to temperatures below 10 °C within two months. The increase in activity measured during winter should thereby be due to changes in environmental factors, which will be further investigated. One big difference between heated and control plots was that heated plots were snow free during the entire winter, while control plots were covered by a 10 cm snow cover. The plant community composition and flowering time also differed in the warmed and ambient plot.

Winter warming as an important co-driver for Betula nana growth in western Greenland during the past century

PubMed Central

Hollesen, Jørgen; Buchwal, Agata; Rachlewicz, Grzegorz; Hansen, Birger U; Hansen, Marc O; Stecher, Ole; Elberling, Bo

2015-01-01

Growing season conditions are widely recognized as the main driver for tundra shrub radial growth, but the effects of winter warming and snow remain an open question. Here, we present a more than 100 years long Betula nana ring-width chronology from Disko Island in western Greenland that demonstrates a highly significant and positive growth response to both summer and winter air temperatures during the past century. The importance of winter temperatures for Betula nana growth is especially pronounced during the periods from 1910–1930 to 1990–2011 that were dominated by significant winter warming. To explain the strong winter importance on growth, we assessed the importance of different environmental factors using site-specific measurements from 1991 to 2011 of soil temperatures, sea ice coverage, precipitation and snow depths. The results show a strong positive growth response to the amount of thawing and growing degree-days as well as to winter and spring soil temperatures. In addition to these direct effects, a strong negative growth response to sea ice extent was identified, indicating a possible link between local sea ice conditions, local climate variations and Betula nana growth rates. Data also reveal a clear shift within the last 20 years from a period with thick snow depths (1991–1996) and a positive effect on Betula nana radial growth, to a period (1997–2011) with generally very shallow snow depths and no significant growth response towards snow. During this period, winter and spring soil temperatures have increased significantly suggesting that the most recent increase in Betula nana radial growth is primarily triggered by warmer winter and spring air temperatures causing earlier snowmelt that allows the soils to drain and warm quicker. The presented results may help to explain the recently observed ‘greening of the Arctic’ which may further accelerate in future years due to both direct and indirect effects of winter warming. PMID:25788025

Winter warming as an important co-driver for Betula nana growth in western Greenland during the past century.

PubMed

Hollesen, Jørgen; Buchwal, Agata; Rachlewicz, Grzegorz; Hansen, Birger U; Hansen, Marc O; Stecher, Ole; Elberling, Bo

2015-06-01

Growing season conditions are widely recognized as the main driver for tundra shrub radial growth, but the effects of winter warming and snow remain an open question. Here, we present a more than 100 years long Betula nana ring-width chronology from Disko Island in western Greenland that demonstrates a highly significant and positive growth response to both summer and winter air temperatures during the past century. The importance of winter temperatures for Betula nana growth is especially pronounced during the periods from 1910-1930 to 1990-2011 that were dominated by significant winter warming. To explain the strong winter importance on growth, we assessed the importance of different environmental factors using site-specific measurements from 1991 to 2011 of soil temperatures, sea ice coverage, precipitation and snow depths. The results show a strong positive growth response to the amount of thawing and growing degree-days as well as to winter and spring soil temperatures. In addition to these direct effects, a strong negative growth response to sea ice extent was identified, indicating a possible link between local sea ice conditions, local climate variations and Betula nana growth rates. Data also reveal a clear shift within the last 20 years from a period with thick snow depths (1991-1996) and a positive effect on Betula nana radial growth, to a period (1997-2011) with generally very shallow snow depths and no significant growth response towards snow. During this period, winter and spring soil temperatures have increased significantly suggesting that the most recent increase in Betula nana radial growth is primarily triggered by warmer winter and spring air temperatures causing earlier snowmelt that allows the soils to drain and warm quicker. The presented results may help to explain the recently observed 'greening of the Arctic' which may further accelerate in future years due to both direct and indirect effects of winter warming. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Biotic and abiotic controls of argentine ant invasion success at local and landscape scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Menke, S.B.; Fisher, R.N.; Jetz, W.; Holway, D.A.

2007-01-01

Although the ecological success of introduced species hinges on biotic interactions and physical conditions, few experimental studies - especially on animals - have simultaneously investigated the relative importance of both types of factors. The lack of such research may stem from the common assumption that native and introduced species exhibit similar environmental tolerances. Here we combine experimental and spatial modeling approaches (1) to determine the relative importance of biotic and abiotic controls of Argentine ant (Linepithema humile) invasion success, (2) to examine how the importance of these factors changes with spatial scale in southern California (USA), and (3) to assess how Argentine ants differ from native ants in their environmental tolerances. A factorial field experiment that combined native ant removal with irrigation revealed that Argentine ants failed to invade any dry plots (even those lacking native ants) but readily invaded all moist plots. Native ants slowed the spread of Argentine ants into irrigated plots but did not prevent invasion. In areas without Argentine ants, native ant species showed variable responses to irrigation. At the landscape scale, Argentine ant occurrence was positively correlated with minimum winter temperature (but not precipitation), whereas native ant diversity increased with precipitation and was negatively correlated with minimum winter temperature. These results are of interest for several reasons. First, they demonstrate that fine-scale differences in the physical environment can eclipse biotic resistance from native competitors in determining community susceptibility to invasion. Second, our results illustrate surprising complexities with respect to how the abiotic factors limiting invasion can change with spatial scale, and third, how native and invasive species can differ in their responses to the physical environment. Idiosyncratic and scale-dependent processes complicate attempts to forecast where introduced species will occur and how their range limits may shift as a result of climate change. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ionospheric reaction on sudden stratospheric warming events in Russiás Asia region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polyakova, Anna; Perevalova, Natalya; Chernigovskaya, Marina

2015-12-01

The response of the ionosphere to sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) in the Asian region of Russia is studied. Two SSW events observed in 2008-2009 and 2012-2013 winter periods of extreme solar minimum and moderate solar maximum are considered. To detect the ionospheric effects caused by SSWs, we carried out a joint analysis of global ionospheric maps (GIM) of the total electron content (TEC), MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder, EOS Aura) measurements of temperature vertical profiles, as well as NCEP/NCAR and UKMO Reanalysis data. For the first time, it was found that during strong SSWs, in the mid-latitude ionosphere the amplitude of diurnal TEC variation decreases nearly half compared to quiet days. At the same time, the intensity of TEC deviations from the background level increases. It was also found that at SSW peak the midday TEC maximum decreases, and night/morning TEC values increase compared to quiet days. It was shown that during SSWs, TEC dynamics was identical for different geophysical conditions.The response of the ionosphere to sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) in the Asian region of Russia is studied. Two SSW events observed in 2008-2009 and 2012-2013 winter periods of extreme solar minimum and moderate solar maximum are considered. To detect the ionospheric effects caused by SSWs, we carried out a joint analysis of global ionospheric maps (GIM) of the total electron content (TEC), MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder, EOS Aura) measurements of temperature vertical profiles, as well as NCEP/NCAR and UKMO Reanalysis data. For the first time, it was found that during strong SSWs, in the mid-latitude ionosphere the amplitude of diurnal TEC variation decreases nearly half compared to quiet days. At the same time, the intensity of TEC deviations from the background level increases. It was also found that at SSW peak the midday TEC maximum decreases, and night/morning TEC values increase compared to quiet days. It was shown that during SSWs, TEC dynamics was identical for different geophysical conditions.

Assessment extreme hydrometeorological conditions in the Gulf of Bothnia, the Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dvornikov, Anton; Martyanov, Stanislav; Ryabchenko, Vladimir; Eremina, Tatjana; Isaev, Alexey; Sein, Dmitry

2017-04-01

Extreme hydrometeorological conditions in the Gulf of Bothnia, the Baltic Sea, are estimated paying a special attention to the area of the future construction of nuclear power plant (NPP) "Hanhikivi-1" (24° 16' E, 64° 32' N). To produce these estimates, long-term observations and results from numerical models of water and ice circulation and wind waves are used. It is estimated that the average annual air temperature in the vicinity of the station is +3° C, summer and winter extreme temperature is equal to 33.3° C and -41.5° C, respectively. Model calculations of wind waves have shown that the most dangerous (in terms of the generation of wind waves in the NPP area) is a north-west wind with the direction of 310°. The maximum height of the waves in the Gulf of Bothnia near the NPP for this wind direction with wind velocity of 10 m/s is 1.2-1.4 m. According to the model estimates, the highest possible level of the sea near the NPP is 248 cm, the minimum level, -151 cm, respectively for the western and eastern winds. These estimates are in good agreement with observations on the sea level for the period 1922-2015 at the nearest hydrometeorological station Raahe (Finland). In order to assess the likely impact of the NPP on the marine environment numerical experiments for the cold (2010) and warm year (2014) have been carried out. These calculations have shown that permanent release of heat into the marine environment from the operating NPP for the cold year (2010) will increase the temperature in the upper layer of 0-250m zone by 10°C in winter - spring and by 8°C in summer - early autumn, and in the bottom layer of 0-250m zone by 5°C in winter - spring and 3°C in summer - early autumn. For the warm year (2014), these temperature changes are smaller. Ice cover in both cases will disappear in two - kilometer vicinity of the NPP. These effects should be taken into account when assessing local climate changes in the future

Fossil palm beetles refine upland winter temperatures in the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum

PubMed Central

Archibald, S. Bruce; Morse, Geoffrey E.; Greenwood, David R.; Mathewes, Rolf W.

2014-01-01

Eocene climate and associated biotic patterns provide an analog system to understand their modern interactions. The relationship between mean annual temperatures and winter temperatures—temperature seasonality—may be an important factor in this dynamic. Fossils of frost-intolerant palms imply low Eocene temperature seasonality into high latitudes, constraining average winter temperatures there to >8 °C. However, their presence in a paleocommunity may be obscured by taphonomic and identification factors for macrofossils and pollen. We circumvented these problems by establishing the presence of obligate palm-feeding beetles (Chrysomelidae: Pachymerina) at three localities (a fourth, tentatively) in microthermal to lower mesothermal Early Eocene upland communities in Washington and British Columbia. This provides support for warmer winter Eocene climates extending northward into cooler Canadian uplands. PMID:24821798

Cold-season temperature in the Swiss Alps from AD 1100-1500; trends, intra-annual variability and forcing factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Jong, Rixt; Kamenik, Christian; Grosjean, Martin

2010-05-01

To fully understand past climatic changes and their forcing factors, detailed reconstructions of past summer and winter temperatures are required. Winter temperature reconstructions are scarce, however, because most biological proxies are biased towards the growing season. This study presents a detailed reconstruction of winter temperatures based on Chrysophyte stomatocysts, silicious scales formed by so-called 'golden algae'. Previous studies (Kamenik and Schmidt, 2005; Pla and Catalan, 2005) have demonstrated the sensitivity of these algae to cold-season temperatures. Chrysophyte stomatocyst analysis was carried out on varved sediments from Lake Silvaplana (1791 m a.s.l.) at annual to near-annual resolution for two periods; AD 1100-1500 and AD 1870-2004. For both periods the reference date 'date of spring mixing' (Smix) was reconstructed using a transfer function developed for the Austrian Alps (Kamenik and Schmidt, 2005). In the Austrian Alps, Smix was primarily driven by air temperature in the cold season. The strength of stomatocysts as a proxy for winter temperature was tested by directly comparing reconstructed Smix with measured temperatures from nearby meteostation Sils Maria for the period AD 1870 - 2004. Correlation was highest (R = -0.6; p < 0.001) with mean October-April temperatures. The good agreement between reconstructed Smix and mean winter temperatures was interrupted only from AD 1925 - AD 1951, which was related to exceptionally high winter precipitation (thick snowpack) extending the ice-covered period. Strong lake eutrophication after AD 1950 only weakly affected the reconstruction of winter temperature. The winter temperature reconstruction (AD 1100-1500) shows strong interdecadal variability, superimposed on a cooling trend from around AD 1400 onwards. A direct comparison to summer temperature reconstructions based on biogenic silica and chironomid analysis from the same cores (Trachsel et al., in review; Larocque-Tobler et al., accepted manuscript) indicated strong fluctuations in intra-annual variability. A comparison to forcing factors shows that throughout the studied period, large tropical volcanic eruptions (Crowley, 2000) coincided with relatively warm winters in the study area. This is consistent with results from GCM experiments and observations of the limited number of eruptions during the much shorter instrumental period (Fischer et al., 2007). References: T. Crowley. Science 289, 270-277 (2000) E. Fischer et al. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L05707 (2007) C. Kamenik and R. Schmidt. Boreas 34, 477-489 (2005) I. Larocque-Tobler et al. Quat. Sci. Rev., accepted. S. Pla and J. Catalan. Clim. Dyn. 24, 263-278 (2005) M. Trachsel et al. Manuscript in review

Changes in atmospheric circulation between solar maximum and minimum conditions in winter and summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jae Nyung

2008-10-01

Statistically significant climate responses to the solar variability are found in Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and in the tropical circulation. This study is based on the statistical analysis of numerical simulations with ModelE version of the chemistry coupled Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. The low frequency large scale variability of the winter and summer circulation is described by the NAM, the leading Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of geopotential heights. The newly defined seasonal annular modes and its dynamical significance in the stratosphere and troposphere in the GISS ModelE is shown and compared with those in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. In the stratosphere, the summer NAM obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis as well as from the ModelE simulations has the same sign throughout the northern hemisphere, but shows greater variability at low latitudes. The patterns in both analyses are consistent with the interpretation that low NAM conditions represent an enhancement of the seasonal difference between the summer and the annual averages of geopotential height, temperature and velocity distributions, while the reverse holds for high NAM conditions. Composite analysis of high and low NAM cases in both the model and observation suggests that the summer stratosphere is more "summer-like" when the solar activity is near a maximum. This means that the zonal easterly wind flow is stronger and the temperature is higher than normal. Thus increased irradiance favors a low summer NAM. A quantitative comparison of the anti-correlation between the NAM and the solar forcing is presented in the model and in the observation, both of which show lower/higher NAM index in solar maximum/minimum conditions. The summer NAM in the troposphere obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis has a dipolar zonal structure with maximum variability over the Asian monsoon region. The corresponding EOF in ModelE has a qualitatively similar structure but with less variability in the Asian monsoon region which is displaced eastward of its observed position. In both the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and the GISS GCM, the negative anomalies associated with the NAM in the Euro-Atlantic and Aleutian island regions are enhanced in the solar minimum conditions, though the results are not statistically significant. The difference of the downward propagation of NAM between solar maximum and solar minimum is shown with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. For the winter NAM, a much greater fraction of stratospheric circulation perturbations penetrate to the surface in solar maximum conditions than in minimum conditions. This difference is more striking when the zonal wind direction in the tropics is from the west: when equatorial 50 hPa winds are from the west, no stratospheric signals reach the surface under solar minimum conditions, while over 50 percent reach the surface under solar maximum conditions. This work also studies the response of the tropical circulation to the solar forcing in combination with different atmospheric compositions and with different ocean modules. Four model experiments have been designed to investigate the role of solar forcing in the tropical circulation: one with the present day (PD) greenhouse gases and aerosol conditions, one with the preindustrial (PI) conditions, one with the doubled minimum solar forcing, and finally one with the hybrid-isopycnic ocean model (HYCOM). The response patterns in the tropical humidity and in the vertical motion due to solar forcing are season dependent and spatially heterogeneous. The tropical humidity response from the model experiments are compared with the corresponding differences obtained from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis with all years and with non-ENSO years. Both the model and the reanalysis consistently show that the specific humidity is significantly greater in the convective region in solar maximum compared to solar minimum for January and July. The column integrated humidity in all the model experiments with different composition, different solar forcing, and different ocean module, increased with solar forcing in the tropical band over the Atlantic sector in both seasons. The model's humidity response pattern is generally consistent with the paleoclimate records indicating increased precipitation near the equator that decreases at subtropical to middle latitudes with increased solar output. The differences in the zonally averaged vertical velocities indicate that the ascending branch of the Hadley cell is enhanced and shifted northward, and that the descending branch is weakened and shifted northward in the solar MAX simulation in January. The downward branch of the Hadley cell is strengthened in MAX in July. A possible link of climate response in midlatitudes to solar forcing is also presented by showing changes in zonal mean wind, changes in temperature gradient, and changes in E-P flux.

Winter Is Coming: Seasonal Variation in Resting Metabolic Rate of the European Badger (Meles meles)

PubMed Central

McClune, David W.; Kostka, Berit; Delahay, Richard J.; Montgomery, W. Ian; Marks, Nikki J.; Scantlebury, David M.

2015-01-01

Resting metabolic rate (RMR) is a measure of the minimum energy requirements of an animal at rest, and can give an indication of the costs of somatic maintenance. We measured RMR of free-ranging European badgers (Meles meles) to determine whether differences were related to sex, age and season. Badgers were captured in live-traps and placed individually within a metabolic chamber maintained at 20 ± 1°C. Resting metabolic rate was determined using an open-circuit respirometry system. Season was significantly correlated with RMR, but no effects of age or sex were detected. Summer RMR values were significantly higher than winter values (mass-adjusted mean ± standard error: 2366 ± 70 kJ⋅d−1; 1845 ± 109 kJ⋅d−1, respectively), with the percentage difference being 24.7%. While under the influence of anaesthesia, RMR was estimated to be 25.5% lower than the combined average value before administration, and after recovery from anaesthesia. Resting metabolic rate during the autumn and winter was not significantly different to allometric predictions of basal metabolic rate for mustelid species weighing 1 kg or greater, but badgers measured in the summer had values that were higher than predicted. Results suggest that a seasonal reduction in RMR coincides with apparent reductions in physical activity and body temperature as part of the overwintering strategy (‘winter lethargy’) in badgers. This study contributes to an expanding dataset on the ecophysiology of medium-sized carnivores, and emphasises the importance of considering season when making predictions of metabolic rate. PMID:26352150

Marine assemblages respond rapidly to winter climate variability.

PubMed

Morley, James W; Batt, Ryan D; Pinsky, Malin L

2017-07-01

Even species within the same assemblage have varied responses to climate change, and there is a poor understanding for why some taxa are more sensitive to climate than others. In addition, multiple mechanisms can drive species' responses, and responses may be specific to certain life stages or times of year. To test how marine species respond to climate variability, we analyzed 73 diverse taxa off the southeast US coast in 26 years of scientific trawl survey data and determined how changes in distribution and biomass relate to temperature. We found that winter temperatures were particularly useful for explaining interannual variation in species' distribution and biomass, although the direction and magnitude of the response varied among species from strongly negative, to little response, to strongly positive. Across species, the response to winter temperature varied greatly, with much of this variation being explained by thermal preference. A separate analysis of annual commercial fishery landings revealed that winter temperatures may also impact several important fisheries in the southeast United States. Based on the life stages of the species surveyed, winter temperature appears to act through overwinter mortality of juveniles or as a cue for migration timing. We predict that this assemblage will be responsive to projected increases in temperature and that winter temperature may be broadly important for species relationships with climate on a global scale. © The Authors Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Modelling uncertainties and possible future trends of precipitation and temperature for 10 sub-basins in Columbia River Basin (CRB)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadalipour, A.; Rana, A.; Qin, Y.; Moradkhani, H.

2014-12-01

Trends and changes in future climatic parameters, such as, precipitation and temperature have been a central part of climate change studies. In the present work, we have analyzed the seasonal and yearly trends and uncertainties of prediction in all the 10 sub-basins of Columbia River Basin (CRB) for future time period of 2010-2099. The work is carried out using 2 different sets of statistically downscaled Global Climate Model (GCMs) projection datasets i.e. Bias correction and statistical downscaling (BCSD) generated at Portland State University and The Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) generated at University of Idaho. The analysis is done for with 10 GCM downscaled products each from CMIP5 daily dataset totaling to 40 different downscaled products for robust analysis. Summer, winter and yearly trend analysis is performed for all the 10 sub-basins using linear regression (significance tested by student t test) and Mann Kendall test (0.05 percent significance level), for precipitation (P), temperature maximum (Tmax) and temperature minimum (Tmin). Thereafter, all the parameters are modelled for uncertainty, across all models, in all the 10 sub-basins and across the CRB for future scenario periods. Results have indicated in varied degree of trends for all the sub-basins, mostly pointing towards a significant increase in all three climatic parameters, for all the seasons and yearly considerations. Uncertainty analysis have reveled very high change in all the parameters across models and sub-basins under consideration. Basin wide uncertainty analysis is performed to corroborate results from smaller, sub-basin scale. Similar trends and uncertainties are reported on the larger scale as well. Interestingly, both trends and uncertainties are higher during winter period than during summer, contributing to large part of the yearly change.

Emergence of the significant local warming of Korea in CMIP5 projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boo, Kyung-On; Shim, Sungbo; Kim, Jee-Eun

2016-04-01

According to IPCC AR5, anthropogenic influence on warming is obvious in local scales, especially in some tropical regions. Detection of significant local warming is important for adaptation to climate change of society and ecosystem. Recently much attention has focused on the time of emergence (ToE) for the signal of anthropogenic climate change against the natural climate variability. Motivated from the previous studies, this study analyzes ToE of regional surface air temperature over Korea. Simulations of CMIP5 15 models are used for RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. For each year, JJA and DJF temperature anomalies are calculated for the time period 1900-1929. For noise of interannual variability, natural-only historical simulations of CMIP5 12 models are used and the standard deviation of the time series is obtained. For signal of warming, we examine the year when the signal above 2 standard deviations is detected in 80% of the models using 30-year smoothed time series. According to our results, interannual variability is larger in land than ocean. Seasonally, it is larger in winter than in summer. Accordingly, ToE of summertime temperature is earlier than that in winter and is expected to appear in 2030s from three RCPs. The seasonal difference is consistent with previous studies. Wintertime ToE appears in 2040s for RCP85 and 2060s for RCP4.5. The different emergence time between RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 reflects the influence of mitigation. In a similar way, daily maximum and minimum temperatures are analyzed. ToE of Tmin appears earlier than that of Tmax and difference is small. Acknowledgements. This study is supported by the National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Korea Meteorological Administration (NIMR-2012-B-2).

Physical activity levels of community-dwelling older adults are influenced by winter weather variables.

PubMed

Jones, G R; Brandon, C; Gill, D P

2017-07-01

Winter weather conditions may negatively influence participation of older adults in daily physical activity (PA). Assess the influence of winter meteorological variables, day-time peak ambient temperature, windchill, humidity, and snow accumulation on the ground to accelerometer measured PA values in older adults. 50 community-dwelling older adults (77.4±4.7yrs; range 71-89; 12 females) living in Southwestern Ontario (Latitude 42.9°N Longitude 81.2° W) Canada, wore a waist-borne accelerometer during active waking hours (12h) for 7 consecutive days between February and April 2007. Hourly temperature, windchill, humidity, and snowfall accumulation were obtained from meteorological records and time locked to hourly accelerometer PA values. Regression analysis revealed significant relationships between time of day, ambient daytime high temperature and a humidity for participation in PA. Windchill temperature added no additional influence over PA acclamation already influenced by ambient day-time temperature and the observed variability in PA patterns relative to snow accumulation over the study period was too great to warrant its inclusion in the model. Most PA was completed in the morning hours and increased as the winter month's transitioned to spring (February through April). An equation was developed to adjust for winter weather conditions using temperature, humidity and time of day. Accurate PA assessment during the winter months must account for the ambient daytime high temperatures, humidity, and time of day. These older adults were more physically active during the morning hours and became more active as the winter season transitioned to spring. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantitative Estimation of the Impact of European Teleconnections on Interannual Variation of East Asian Winter Temperature and Monsoon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lim, Young-Kwon; Kim, Hae-Dong

2014-01-01

The impact of European teleconnections including the East AtlanticWest Russia (EA-WR), the Scandinavia (SCA), and the East Atlantic (EA) on East Asian winter temperature variability was quantified and compared with the combined effect of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the Western Pacific (WP), and the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which are originated in the Northern Hemispheric high-latitudes or the Pacific. Three European teleconnections explained 22-25 percent of the total monthly upper-tropospheric height variance over Eurasia. Regression analysis revealed warming by EA-WR and EA and cooling by SCA over mid-latitude East Asia during their positive phase and vice versa. Temperature anomalies were largely explained by the advective temperature change process at the lower troposphere. The average spatial correlation over East Asia (90-180E, 10-80N) for the last 34 winters between observed and reconstructed temperature comprised of AO, WP and ENSO effect (AWE) was approximately 0.55, and adding the European teleconnection components (ESE) to the reconstructed temperature improved the correlation up to approximately 0.64. Lower level atmospheric structure demonstrated that approximately five of the last 34 winters were significantly better explained by ESE than AWE to determine East Asian seasonal winter temperatures. We also compared the impact between EA-WR and AO on the 1) East Asian winter monsoon, 2) cold surge, and 3) the Siberian high. These three were strongly coupled, and their spatial features and interannual variation were somewhat better explained by EA-WR than AO. Results suggest that the EA-WR impact must be treated more importantly than previously thought for a better understanding of East Asian winter temperature and monsoon variability.

Does the recent warming hiatus exist over northern Asia for winter wind chill temperature?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Ying

2017-04-01

Wind chill temperature (WCT) describes the joint effect of wind velocity and air temperature on exposed body skin and could support policy makers in designing plans to reduce the risks of notably cold and windy weather. This study examined winter WCT over northern Asia during 1973-2013 by analyzing in situ station data. The winter WCT warming rate over the Tibetan Plateau slowed during 1999-2013 (-0.04 °C/decade) compared with that during 1973-1998 (0.67 °C/decade). The winter WCT warming hiatus has also been observed in the remainder of Northern Asia with trends of 1.11 °C/decade during 1973-1998 but -1.02 °C/decade during 1999-2013, except for the Far East of Russia (FE), where the winter WCT has continued to heat up during both the earlier period of 1973-1998 (0.54 °C/decade) and the recent period of 1999-2013 (0.75 °C/decade). The results indicate that the influence of temperature on winter WCT is greater than that of wind speed over northern Asia. Atmospheric circulation changes associated with air temperature and wind speed were analyzed to identify the causes for the warming hiatus of winter WCT over northern Asia. The distributions of sea level pressure and 500 hPa height anomalies during 1999-2013 transported cold air from the high latitudes to middle latitudes, resulting in low air temperature over Northern Asia except for the Far East of Russia. Over the Tibetan Plateau, the increase in wind speed offset the increase in air temperature during 1999-2013. For the Far East, the southerly wind from the Western Pacific drove the temperature up during the 1999-2013 period via warm advection.

Event attribution: Human influence on the record-breaking cold event in January of 2016 in Eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, C.; Wang, J.; Dong, S.; Yin, H.; Burke, C.; Ciavarella, A.; Dong, B.; Freychet, N.; Lott, F. C.; Tett, S. F.

2017-12-01

It is controversial whether Asian mid-latitude cold surges are becoming more likely as a consequence of Arctic warming. Here, we present an event attribution study in mid-latitude Eastern China. A strong cold surge occurred during 21st-25th January 2016 affecting most areas of China, especially Eastern China. Daily minimum temperature (Tmin) records were broken at many stations. The area averaged anomaly of Tmin over the region (20-44N, 100-124E) for this pentad was the lowest temperature recorded since modern meteorological observations started in 1960. This cold event occurred in a background of the warmest winter Tmin since 1960. Given the vast damages caused by this extreme cold event in Eastern China and the previous mentioned controversy, it is compelling to investigate how much anthropogenic forcing agents have affected the probability of cold events with an intensity equal to or larger than the January 2016 extreme event. We use the Met Office Hadley Centre system for Attribution of extreme weather and Climate Events and station observations to investigate the effect of anthropogenic forcings on the likelihood of such a cold event. Anthropogenic influences are estimated to have reduced the likelihood of an extreme cold event in mid-winter with the intensity equal to or stronger than the record of 2016 in Eastern China by about 2/3.

Semidiurnal tidal activity of the middle atmosphere at mid-latitudes derived from O2 atmospheric and OH(6-2) airglow SATI observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López-González, M. J.; Rodríguez, E.; García-Comas, M.; López-Puertas, M.; Olivares, I.; Ruiz-Bueno, J. A.; Shepherd, M. G.; Shepherd, G. G.; Sargoytchev, S.

2017-11-01

In this paper, we investigate the tidal activity in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere region at 370N using OH Meinel and O2 atmospheric airglow observations from 1998 to 2015. The observations were taken with a Spectral Airglow Temperature Imager (SATI) installed at Sierra Nevada Observatory (SNO) (37.060N, 3.380W) at 2900 m height. From these observations a seasonal dependence of the amplitudes of the semidiurnal tide is inferred. The maximum tidal amplitude occurs in winter and the minimum in summer. The vertically averaged rotational temperatures and vertically integrated volume emission rate (rotational temperatures and intensities here in after), from the O2 atmospheric band measurements and the rotational temperature derived from OH Meinel band measurements reach the maximum amplitude about 1-4 h after midnight during almost all the year except in August-September where the maximum is found 2-4 h earlier. The amplitude of the tide in the OH intensity reaches the minimum near midnight in midwinter, then it is progressively delayed until 4:00 LT in August-September, and from there on it moves again forward towards midnight. The mean Krassovsky numbers for OH and O2 emissions are 5.9 ±1.8 and 5.6 ±1.0, respectively, with negative Krassovsky phases for almost all the year, indicating an upward energy transport. The mean vertical wavelengths for the vertical tidal propagation derived from OH and O2 emissions are 35 ±20 km and 33 ±18 km, respectively. The vertical wavelengths together with the phase shift in the temperature derived from both airglow emissions indicate that these airglow emission layers are separated by 7 ±3 km, on average.

Anthropogenically-induced changes in temperatures and implications for water resources in the western United States.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonfils, C.; Santer, B.; Pierce, D.; Hidalgo, H.; Bala, G.; Dash, T.; Barnett, T.; Cayan, D.; Doutriaux, C.; Wood, A.; Mirin, A.; Nosawa, T.

2008-12-01

Large changes in the hydrology of the western United States have been observed since the mid-20th century. These include a reduction in the amount of precipitation arriving as snow, a decline in snowpack at low and mid-elevations, and a shift towards earlier arrival of both snowmelt and the center of mass of streamflows. In order to project future water supply reliability, it is crucial to obtain a better understanding of the underlying cause or causes for these long-term changes. A regional warming is often posited as the cause of these changes, without formal testing of different competitive explanations for the warming. In this study, we perform a rigorous detection and attribution analysis to determine the causes of the late winter/early spring changes in hydrologically-relevant temperature variables over mountain ranges of the western U.S. Natural internal climate variability, as estimated from two long control climate model simulations, is insufficient to explain the rapid increase in daily minimum and maximum temperatures, the sharp decline in frost days, and the rise in degree-days above 0°C (a simple proxy for temperature-driven snowmelt). The observations are however consistent with climate simulations that include the combined effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols. We also address the benefits of conducting multivariate versus univariate detection and attribution analysis, with, for instance, a focus on changes in snowmelt, streamflow peaks and minimum temperature. With models of climate change unanimously projecting an acceleration of warming in the western United States, serious implications for water infrastructures and water supply sustainability can be expected, increasing already the necessity of developing adaptation measures in water resources management.

Phenology of temperate trees in tropical climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borchert, Rolf; Robertson, Kevin; Schwartz, Mark D.; Williams-Linera, Guadalupe

2005-09-01

Several North American broad-leaved tree species range from the northern United States at ˜47°N to moist tropical montane forests in Mexico and Central America at 15-20°N. Along this gradient the average minimum temperatures of the coldest month (T Jan), which characterize annual variation in temperature, increase from -10 to 12°C and tree phenology changes from deciduous to leaf-exchanging or evergreen in the southern range with a year-long growing season. Between 30 and 45°N, the time of bud break is highly correlated with T Jan and bud break can be reliably predicted for the week in which mean minimum temperature rises to 7°C. Temperature-dependent deciduous phenology—and hence the validity of temperature-driven phenology models—terminates in southern North America near 30°N, where T Jan>7°C enables growth of tropical trees and cultivation of frost-sensitive citrus fruits. In tropical climates most temperate broad-leaved species exchange old for new leaves within a few weeks in January-February, i.e., their phenology becomes similar to that of tropical leaf-exchanging species. Leaf buds of the southern ecotypes of these temperate species are therefore not winter-dormant and have no chilling requirement. As in many tropical trees, bud break of Celtis, Quercus and Fagus growing in warm climates is induced in early spring by increasing daylength. In tropical climates vegetative phenology is determined mainly by leaf longevity, seasonal variation in water stress and day length. As water stress during the dry season varies widely with soil water storage, climate-driven models cannot predict tree phenology in the tropics and tropical tree phenology does not constitute a useful indicator of global warming.

Measured Performance of a Low Temperature Air Source Heat Pump

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, R. K.

2013-09-01

A 4-ton Low Temperature Heat Pump (LTHP) manufactured by Hallowell International was installed in a residence near New Haven, Connecticut and monitored over two winters of operation. After attending to some significant service issues, the heat pump operated as designed. This report should be considered a review of the dual compressor 'boosted heat pump' technology. The Low Temperature Heat Pumpsystem operates with four increasing levels of capacity (heat output) as the outdoor temperature drops. The system was shown to select capacity correctly, supplying the appropriate amount of heat to the house across the full range of outdoor temperatures. The system'smore » Coefficient of Performance (Seasonal COP, or SCOP) over two entire winters was calculated, based on measured data, to be 3.29over the first winter and 2.68 over the second winter. A second seasonal efficiency calculation by a different method yielded a SCOP of 2.78 for the first winter and 2.83 for the second winter. This second seasonal efficiency calculation was determined by comparing measured heat pump energy use to the in situ energy use with resistance heat alone. This method is the ratio of the slopes of thedaily energy use load lines.« less

Mortality impact of extreme winter temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Díaz, Julio; García, Ricardo; López, César; Linares, Cristina; Tobías, Aurelio; Prieto, Luis

2005-01-01

During the last few years great attention has been paid to the evaluation of the impact of extreme temperatures on human health. This paper examines the effect of extreme winter temperature on mortality in Madrid for people older than 65, using ARIMA and GAM models. Data correspond to 1,815 winter days over the period 1986 1997, during which time a total of 133,000 deaths occurred. The daily maximum temperature (Tmax) was shown to be the best thermal indicator of the impact of climate on mortality. When total mortality was considered, the maximum impact occured 7 8 days after a temperature extreme; for circulatory diseases the lag was between 7 and 14 days. When respiratory causes were considered, two mortality peaks were evident at 4 5 and 11 days. When the impact of winter extreme temperatures was compared with that associated with summer extremes, it was found to occur over a longer term, and appeared to be more indirect.

Glove and mitten protection in extreme cold weather: an Antarctic study.

PubMed

Iserson, Kenneth V

2016-01-01

Background Myths, misconceptions and a general lack of information surround the use of gloves and mittens in extreme cold environments. Objective This study assessed how well an assortment of gloves and mittens performed in a very cold environment. Methods A convenience sample of gloves and mittens were tested in Antarctica during the winter of 2016 using a calibrated thermometer (range: -148°F to +158°F/-100°C to +70°C) three times over a 0.5-mile distance (~20 minutes). A small sensor on a 10-foot-long cable was taped to the radial surface of the distal small finger on the non-dominant hand. The tested clothing was donned over the probe, the maximum temperature inside the glove/mitten was established near a building exit (ambient temperature approximately 54°F/12°C), and the building was exited, initiating the test. The hand was kept immobile during the test. Some non-heated gloves were tested with chemical heat warmers placed over the volar or dorsal wrist. Results The highest starting (96°F/36°C) and ending (82°F/28°C) temperatures were with electrically heated gloves. The lowest starting temperature was with electrically heated gloves with the power off (63°F/17°C). Non-heated gloves with an inserted chemical hand warmer had the lowest minimum temperature (33°F/1°C). Maximum temperatures for gloves/mittens did not correlate well with their minimum temperature. Conclusions Coverings that maintained finger temperatures within a comfortable and safe range (at or above 59°F/15°C) included the heated gloves and mittens (including some with the power off) and mittens with liners. Mittens without liners (shell) generally performed better than unheated gloves. Better results generally paralleled the item's cost. Inserting chemical heat warmers at the wrist increased heat loss, possibly through the exposed area around the warmer.

Glove and mitten protection in extreme cold weather: an Antarctic study.

PubMed

Iserson, Kenneth V

2016-01-01

Myths, misconceptions and a general lack of information surround the use of gloves and mittens in extreme cold environments. This study assessed how well an assortment of gloves and mittens performed in a very cold environment. A convenience sample of gloves and mittens were tested in Antarctica during the winter of 2016 using a calibrated thermometer (range: -148°F to +158°F/-100°C to +70°C) three times over a 0.5-mile distance (~20 minutes). A small sensor on a 10-foot-long cable was taped to the radial surface of the distal small finger on the non-dominant hand. The tested clothing was donned over the probe, the maximum temperature inside the glove/mitten was established near a building exit (ambient temperature approximately 54°F/12°C), and the building was exited, initiating the test. The hand was kept immobile during the test. Some non-heated gloves were tested with chemical heat warmers placed over the volar or dorsal wrist. The highest starting (96°F/36°C) and ending (82°F/28°C) temperatures were with electrically heated gloves. The lowest starting temperature was with electrically heated gloves with the power off (63°F/17°C). Non-heated gloves with an inserted chemical hand warmer had the lowest minimum temperature (33°F/1°C). Maximum temperatures for gloves/mittens did not correlate well with their minimum temperature. Coverings that maintained finger temperatures within a comfortable and safe range (at or above 59°F/15°C) included the heated gloves and mittens (including some with the power off) and mittens with liners. Mittens without liners (shell) generally performed better than unheated gloves. Better results generally paralleled the item's cost. Inserting chemical heat warmers at the wrist increased heat loss, possibly through the exposed area around the warmer.

Thermal Acclimatization in Overwintering Tadpoles of the Green Frog, Lithobates clamitans (Latreille, 1801).

PubMed

Gray, Kathryn T; Escobar, Astrid M; Schaeffer, Paul J; Mineo, Patrick M; Berner, Nancy J

2016-06-01

Seasonal acclimatization permits organisms to maintain function in the face of environmental change. Tadpoles of the green frog (Lithobates clamitans) overwinter as tadpoles in much of their range. Because they are active in winter, we hypothesized that green frog tadpoles would display acclimatization of metabolic and locomotor function. We collected tadpoles in Sewanee, Tennessee (35.2°N) in winter and summer. Tadpoles collected during each season were tested at both winter (8°C) and summer (26°C) temperatures. Winter tadpoles were able to maintain swimming performance at both temperatures, whereas swimming performance decreased at cold temperatures in summer tadpoles. There was no evidence for seasonal acclimatization of whole-animal metabolic rate. Although whole-animal metabolic acclimatization was not observed, the activities of cytochrome c oxidase, citrate synthase, and lactate dehydrogenase measured in skeletal muscle homogenates showed higher activity in winter-acclimatized tadpoles indicating compensation for temperature. Further, the composition of muscle membranes of winter tadpoles had less saturated and more monounsaturated fatty acids and a higher ω-3 balance, unsaturation index, and peroxidation index than summer tadpoles. These data indicate that reversible phenotypic plasticity of thermal physiology occurs in larval green frog tadpoles. They appear to compensate for colder temperatures to maintain burst-swimming velocity and the ability to escape predators without the cost of maintaining a constant, higher standard metabolic rate in the winter. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Comparison of winter temperature profiles in asphalt and concrete pavements.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-06-01

The objectives of this research were to 1) determine which pavement type, asphalt or concrete, has : higher surface temperatures in winter and 2) compare the subsurface temperatures under asphalt and : concrete pavements to determine the pavement typ...

Characterizing the Seasonality and Spatiotemporal Evolution of the U.S. Warming Hole

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Partridge, T.; Winter, J.; Osterberg, E. C.; Magilligan, F. J.; Hyndman, D. W.; Kendall, A. D.

2017-12-01

Regions of the Eastern United States have experienced periods of cooling during the last half of the twentieth century inconsistent with broader global warming trends. While there have been a variety of mechanisms proposed to explain this "warming hole", the spatial and temporal definitions of the warming hole often differ across studies, potentially obfuscating the physical drivers leading to its existence. Further, a broad consensus on the causality of the warming hole has yet to be reached. We use daily temperature data from the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN) to conduct a thorough characterization of the spatiotemporal evolution and seasonality of regional cooling across the Eastern U.S., and define a dynamic warming hole as the region of most persistent cooling. We find that the location of the dynamic warming hole varies by season from the Midwestern U.S. during summer to the Southeastern U.S. during winter. In addition, the cool period associated with the warming hole is characterized by an abrupt decrease in maximum temperature (Tx) and a decline in minimum temperature (Tn) around 1957. While average Tn values in the warming hole recover after the decline and increase from the mid 1960's to present, Tx values for the second half of the 20th century remain below observed values from the first half of the century. To explore large-scale atmospheric drivers of the dynamic warming hole, we correlate SST teleconnection and regional atmospheric circulation indices with seasonal temperature values from 1901-1957 and 1958-2015. We show that 1957 marks a shift, where winter temperatures in the warming hole become more correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and less correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Summer warming hole temperatures become less correlated with the NAO post 1957 and are strongly negatively correlated with precipitation.

Mangrove species' responses to winter air temperature extremes in China

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chen, Luzhen; Wang, Wenqing; Li, Qingshun Q.; Zhang, Yihui; Yang, Shengchang; Osland, Michael J.; Huang, Jinliang; Peng, Congjiao

2017-01-01

The global distribution and diversity of mangrove forests is greatly influenced by the frequency and intensity of winter air temperature extremes. However, our understanding of how different mangrove species respond to winter temperature extremes has been lacking because extreme freezing and chilling events are, by definition, relatively uncommon and also difficult to replicate experimentally. In this study, we investigated species-specific variation in mangrove responses to winter temperature extremes in China. In 10 sites that span a latitudinal gradient, we quantified species-specific damage and recovery following a chilling event, for mangrove species within and outside of their natural range (i.e., native and non-native species, respectively). To characterize plant stress, we measured tree defoliation and chlorophyll fluorescence approximately one month following the chilling event. To quantify recovery, we measured chlorophyll fluorescence approximately nine months after the chilling event. Our results show high variation in the geographic- and species-specific responses of mangroves to winter temperature extremes. While many species were sensitive to the chilling temperatures (e.g., Bruguiera sexangula and species in the Sonneratia and Rhizophora genera), the temperatures during this event were not cold enough to affect certain species (e.g., Kandelia obovata, Aegiceras corniculatum, Avicennia marina, and Bruguiera gymnorrhiza). As expected, non-native species were less tolerant of winter temperature extremes than native species. Interestingly, tidal inundation modulated the effects of chilling. In comparison with other temperature-controlled mangrove range limits across the world, the mangrove range limit in China is unique due to the combination of the following three factors: (1) Mangrove species diversity is comparatively high; (2) winter air temperature extremes, rather than means, are particularly intense and play an important ecological role; and (3) due to afforestation and restoration efforts, several species of non-native mangroves have been introduced beyond their natural range limits. Hence, from a global perspective, mangroves in China provide valuable opportunities to advance understanding of the effects of freezing and chilling temperatures on mangroves. Within the context of climate change, our findings provide a foundation for better understanding and preparing for mangrove species-specific responses to future changes in the duration and intensity of winter temperature extremes.

Introduction to the special issue on the changing Mojave Desert

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berry, Kristin H.; Murphy, R.W.; Mack, Jeremy S.; Quillman, W.

2006-01-01

The Mojave Desert, which lies between the Great Basin Desert in the north and the Sonoran Desert in the south, covers an estimated 114 478–130 464 km2 of the south-western United States and includes parts of the states of Nevada, Utah, Arizona, and California, with the amount of land mass dependent on the definition (Fig. 1; Rowlands et al., 1982; McNab and Avers, 1994; Bailey, 1995; Groves et al., 2000). This desert is sufficiently diverse to be subdivided into five regions: northern, south-western, central, south-central, and eastern (Rowlands et al., 1982). It is a land of extremes both in topography and climate. Elevations range from below sea level at Death Valley National Park to 3633 m on Mt. Charleston in the Spring Range of Nevada. Temperatures exhibit similar extreme ranges with mean minimum January temperatures of −2.4 °C in Beatty, Nevada and mean maximum July temperatures of 47 °C in Death Valley. Mean annual precipitation varies throughout the regions (42–350 mm), is highest on mountain tops, but overall is low (Rowlands et al., 1982; Rowlands, 1995a). The distribution of precipitation varies from west to east and north to south, with >85% of rain falling in winter in the northern, south-western and south-central regions. In contrast, the central and eastern regions receive a substantial amount of precipitation in both winter and summer. The variability in topographic and climatic features contributes to regional differences in vegetation.

Seasonal variations in aerosol optical properties over China

Treesearch

Yuesi Wang; Jinyuan Xin; Zhanqing Li; Shigong Wang; Pucai Wang; Wei Min Hao; Bryce L. Nordgren; Hongbin Chen; Lili Wang; Yang Sun

2012-01-01

Seasonal variations in background aerosol optical depth (AOD) and aerosol type are investigated over various ecosystems in China based upon three years' worth of meteorological data and data collected by the Chinese Sun Hazemeter Network. In most parts of China, AODs are at a maximum in spring or summer and at a minimum in autumn or winter. Minimum values (0.10~0....

Use of real-time PCR to detect canine parvovirus in feces of free-ranging wolves.

PubMed

Mech, L David; Almberg, Emily S; Smith, Douglas; Goyal, Sagar; Singer, Randall S

2012-04-01

Using real-time PCR, we tested 15 wolf (Canis lupus) feces from the Superior National Forest (SNF), Minnesota, USA, and 191 from Yellowstone National Park (YNP), USA, collected during summer and 13 during winter for canine parvovirus (CPV)-2 DNA. We also tested 20 dog feces for CPV-2 DNA. The PCR assay was 100% sensitive and specific with a minimum detection threshold of 10(4) 50% tissue culture infective dose. Virus was detected in two winter specimens but none of the summer specimens. We suggest applying the technique more broadly especially with winter feces.

Use of real-time PCR to detect canine parvovirus in feces of free-ranging wolves

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mech, L. David; Almberg, Emily S.; Smith, Douglas; Goyal, Sagar; Singer, Randall S.

2012-01-01

Using real-time PCR, we tested 15 wolf (Canis lupus) feces from the Superior National Forest (SNF), Minnesota, USA, and 191 from Yellowstone National Park (YNP), USA, collected during summer and 13 during winter for canine parvovirus (CPV)-2 DNA. We also tested 20 dog feces for CPV-2 DNA. The PCR assay was 100% sensitive and specific with a minimum detection threshold of 104 50% tissue culture infective dose. Virus was detected in two winter specimens but none of the summer specimens. We suggest applying the technique more broadly especially with winter feces.

Actual and future trends of extreme values of temperature for the NW Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taboada, J.; Brands, S.; Lorenzo, N.

2009-09-01

It is now very well established that yearly averaged temperatures are increasing due to anthropogenic climate change. In the area of Galicia (NW Spain) this trend has also been determined. The main objective of this work is to assess actual and future trends of different extreme indices of temperature, which are of curcial importance for many impact studies. Station data for the study was provided by the CLIMA database of the regional government of Galicia (NW Spain). As direct GCM-output significantly underestimates the variance of daily surface temperature variables in NW Spain, these variables are obtained by applying a statistical downscaling technique (analog method), using 850hPa temperature and mean sea level pressure as combined predictors. The predictor fields have been extracted from three GCMs participating in the IPCC AR4 under A1, A1B and A2 scenarios. The definitions of the extreme indices have been taken from the joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team (ET) on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) This group has defined a set of standard extreme values to simplify intercomparisons of data from different regions of the world. For the temperatures in the period 1960-2006, results show a significant increase of the number of days with maximum temperatures above the 90th percentile. Furthermore, a significant decrease of the days with maximum temperatures below the 10th percentile has been found. The tendencies of minimum temperatures are reverse: less nights with minimum temperatures below 10th percentile, and more with minimum temperatures above 90th percentile. Those tendencies can be observed all over the year, but are more pronounced in summer. We have also calculated the relationship between the above mentioned extreme values and different teleconnection patterns appearing in the North Atlantic area. Results show that local tendencies are associated with trends of EA (Eastern Atlantic) and SCA (Scandinavian) patterns. NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) has also some relationship with these tendencies, but only related with cold days and nights in winter. The results of the applied statistical downscaling technique indicate that observed trends in maximum and minimum temperatures in NW Spain are expected to continue in the next decades because of anthropogenic climate change. The common tendency is that hot days increase while cold nights diminish all over the year. As expected, these tendencies change between different scenarios: they are more marked for A2 and A1B scenarios than for the for the B1 scenario. Moreover, the three models behave different under the same scenario, leaving a great uncertainty for the future. Nevertheless, we conclude that more frequent hot days, as well as an increasing probability of summertime heat waves are to be expected in the next decades. Cold days tend to diminish, decreasing the probability of wintertime cold waves and leaving a greater part of the area under study without frost days throughout the year.

Winter warming delays dormancy release, advances budburst, alters carbohydrate metabolism and reduces yield in a temperate shrub.

PubMed

Pagter, Majken; Andersen, Uffe Brandt; Andersen, Lillie

2015-03-23

Global climate models predict an increase in the mean surface air temperature, with a disproportionate increase during winter. Since temperature is a major driver of phenological events in temperate woody perennials, warming is likely to induce changes in a range of these events. We investigated the impact of slightly elevated temperatures (+0.76 °C in the air, +1.35 °C in the soil) during the non-growing season (October-April) on freezing tolerance, carbohydrate metabolism, dormancy release, spring phenology and reproductive output in two blackcurrant (Ribes nigrum) cultivars to understand how winter warming modifies phenological traits in a woody perennial known to have a large chilling requirement and to be sensitive to spring frost. Warming delayed dormancy release more in the cultivar 'Narve Viking' than in the cultivar 'Titania', but advanced budburst and flowering predominantly in 'Titania'. Since 'Narve Viking' has a higher chilling requirement than 'Titania', this indicates that, in high-chilling-requiring genotypes, dormancy responses may temper the effect of warming on spring phenology. Winter warming significantly reduced fruit yield the following summer in both cultivars, corroborating the hypothesis that a decline in winter chill may decrease reproductive effort in blackcurrant. Elevated winter temperatures tended to decrease stem freezing tolerance during cold acclimation and deacclimation, but it did not increase the risk of freeze-induced damage mid-winter. Plants at elevated temperature showed decreased levels of sucrose in stems of both cultivars and flower buds of 'Narve Viking', which, in buds, was associated with increased concentrations of glucose and fructose. Hence, winter warming influences carbohydrate metabolism, but it remains to be elucidated whether decreased sucrose levels account for any changes in freezing tolerance. Our results demonstrate that even a slight increase in winter temperature may alter phenological traits in blackcurrant, but to various extents depending on genotype-specific differences in chilling requirement. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company.

Winter warming delays dormancy release, advances budburst, alters carbohydrate metabolism and reduces yield in a temperate shrub

PubMed Central

Pagter, Majken; Andersen, Uffe Brandt; Andersen, Lillie

2015-01-01

Global climate models predict an increase in the mean surface air temperature, with a disproportionate increase during winter. Since temperature is a major driver of phenological events in temperate woody perennials, warming is likely to induce changes in a range of these events. We investigated the impact of slightly elevated temperatures (+0.76 °C in the air, +1.35 °C in the soil) during the non-growing season (October–April) on freezing tolerance, carbohydrate metabolism, dormancy release, spring phenology and reproductive output in two blackcurrant (Ribes nigrum) cultivars to understand how winter warming modifies phenological traits in a woody perennial known to have a large chilling requirement and to be sensitive to spring frost. Warming delayed dormancy release more in the cultivar ‘Narve Viking’ than in the cultivar ‘Titania’, but advanced budburst and flowering predominantly in ‘Titania’. Since ‘Narve Viking’ has a higher chilling requirement than ‘Titania’, this indicates that, in high-chilling-requiring genotypes, dormancy responses may temper the effect of warming on spring phenology. Winter warming significantly reduced fruit yield the following summer in both cultivars, corroborating the hypothesis that a decline in winter chill may decrease reproductive effort in blackcurrant. Elevated winter temperatures tended to decrease stem freezing tolerance during cold acclimation and deacclimation, but it did not increase the risk of freeze-induced damage mid-winter. Plants at elevated temperature showed decreased levels of sucrose in stems of both cultivars and flower buds of ‘Narve Viking’, which, in buds, was associated with increased concentrations of glucose and fructose. Hence, winter warming influences carbohydrate metabolism, but it remains to be elucidated whether decreased sucrose levels account for any changes in freezing tolerance. Our results demonstrate that even a slight increase in winter temperature may alter phenological traits in blackcurrant, but to various extents depending on genotype-specific differences in chilling requirement. PMID:25802249

Within-Winter Flexibility in Muscle Masses, Myostatin, and Cellular Aerobic Metabolic Intensity in Passerine Birds.

PubMed

Swanson, David L; King, Marisa O; Culver, William; Zhang, Yufeng

Metabolic rates of passerine birds are flexible traits that vary both seasonally and among and within winters. Seasonal variation in summit metabolic rates (M sum = maximum thermoregulatory metabolism) in birds is consistently correlated with changes in pectoralis muscle and heart masses and sometimes with variation in cellular aerobic metabolic intensity, so these traits might also be associated with shorter-term, within-winter variation in metabolic rates. To determine whether these mechanisms are associated with within-winter variation in M sum , we examined the effects of short-term (ST; 0-7 d), medium-term (MT; 14-30 d), and long-term (LT; 30-yr means) temperature variables on pectoralis muscle and heart masses, pectoralis expression of the muscle-growth inhibitor myostatin and its metalloproteinase activators TLL-1 and TLL-2, and pectoralis and heart citrate synthase (CS; an indicator of cellular aerobic metabolic intensity) activities for two temperate-zone resident passerines, house sparrows (Passer domesticus) and dark-eyed juncos (Junco hyemalis). For both species, pectoralis mass residuals were positively correlated with ST temperature variables, suggesting that cold temperatures resulted in increased turnover of pectoralis muscle, but heart mass showed little within-winter variation for either species. Pectoralis mRNA and protein expression of myostatin and the TLLs were only weakly correlated with ST and MT temperature variables, which is largely consistent with trends in muscle masses for both species. Pectoralis and heart CS activities showed weak and variable trends with ST temperature variables in both species, suggesting only minor effects of temperature variation on cellular aerobic metabolic intensity. Thus, neither muscle or heart masses, regulation by the myostatin system, nor cellular aerobic metabolic intensity varied consistently with winter temperature, suggesting that other factors regulate within-winter metabolic variation in these birds.

Winter to winter recurrence of atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia and its impact on winter surface air temperature anomalies

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

The persistence of atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia shows a winter to winter recurrence (WTWR) phenomenon. Seasonal variations in sea level pressure anomalies and surface wind anomalies display significantly different characteristics between WTWR and non-WTWR years. The WTWR years are characterized by the recurrence of both a strong (weak) anomalous Siberian High and an East Asian winter monsoon over two successive winters without persistence through the intervening summer. However, anomalies during the non-WTWR years have the opposite sign between the current and ensuing winters. The WTWR of circulation anomalies contributes to that of surface air temperature anomalies (SATAs), which is useful information for improving seasonal and interannual climate predictions over East Asia and China. In the positive (negative) WTWR years, SATAs are cooler (warmer) over East Asia in two successive winters, but the signs of the SATAs are opposite in the preceding and subsequent winters during the non-WTWR years. PMID:28178351

Winter to winter recurrence of atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia and its impact on winter surface air temperature anomalies.

PubMed

Zhao, Xia; Yang, Guang

2017-01-01

The persistence of atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia shows a winter to winter recurrence (WTWR) phenomenon. Seasonal variations in sea level pressure anomalies and surface wind anomalies display significantly different characteristics between WTWR and non-WTWR years. The WTWR years are characterized by the recurrence of both a strong (weak) anomalous Siberian High and an East Asian winter monsoon over two successive winters without persistence through the intervening summer. However, anomalies during the non-WTWR years have the opposite sign between the current and ensuing winters. The WTWR of circulation anomalies contributes to that of surface air temperature anomalies (SATAs), which is useful information for improving seasonal and interannual climate predictions over East Asia and China. In the positive (negative) WTWR years, SATAs are cooler (warmer) over East Asia in two successive winters, but the signs of the SATAs are opposite in the preceding and subsequent winters during the non-WTWR years.

Membrane stability of winter wheat plants exposed to subzero temperatures for variable lengths of time

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The ability to survive episodes of subfreezing temperature is essential to winter wheat. Fully cold-acclimated plants of six lines of winter wheat were exposed to -12, -14, -16 or -18° C, four 1-5 hours. Electrolyte leakage and plant survival were used to assess damage to the plants. Plants exposed ...

Long Term Decline in Eastern US Winter Temperature Extremes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trenary, L. L.; DelSole, T. M.; Tippett, M. K.; Doty, B.

2016-12-01

States along the US eastern seaboard have experienced successively harsh winter conditions in recent years. This has prompted speculation that climate change is leading to more extreme winter conditions. In this study we quantify changes in the observed winter extremes over the period 1950-2015, by examining year-to-year differences in intensity, frequency and likelihood of daily cold temperature extremes in the north, mid, and south Atlantic states along the US east coast. Analyzing station data for these three regions, we find that while the north and mid-Atlantic regions experienced record-breaking cold temperatures in 2015, there is no long-term increase in the intensity of cold extremes anywhere along the eastern seaboard. Likewise, despite the record number of cold days in these two regions during 2014 and 2015, there is no systematic increase in the frequency of cold extremes. To determine whether the observed changes are natural or human-forced, we repeat our analysis using a suite of climate simulations, with and without external forcing. Generally, model simulations suggest that human-induced forcing does not significantly influence the range of daily winter temperature. Combining this result with the fact that the observed winter temperatures are becoming warmer and less variable, we conclude that the recent intensification of eastern US cold extremes is only temporary.

The role of the Asian winter monsoon in the rapid propagation of abrupt climate changes during the last deglaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, Guoqiang; Sun, Qing; Zhu, Qingzeng; Shan, Yabing; Shang, Wenyu; Ling, Yuan; Su, Youliang; Xie, Manman; Wang, Xishen; Liu, Jiaqi

2017-12-01

High-resolution temperature records spanning the last deglaciation from low latitudes are scarce; however, they are important for understanding the rapid propagation of abrupt climate events throughout the Northern Hemisphere and the tropics. Here, we present a branched GDGTs-based temperature reconstruction from the sediments of Maar Lake Huguangyan in tropical China. The record reveals that the mean temperature during the Oldest Dryas was 17.8 °C, which was followed by a two-step increase of 2-3 °C to the Bølling-Allerød, a decrease to 19.8 °C during the Younger Dryas, and a rapid warming at the onset of the Holocene. The Oldest Dryas was about 2 °C warmer than the Younger Dryas. The reconstructed temperature was weighted towards the wintertime since the lake is monomictic and the mixing process in winter supplies nutrients from the lake bottom to the entire water column, greatly promoting biological productivity. In addition, the winter-biased temperature changes observed in the study are more distinctive than the summer-biased temperature records from extra-tropical regions of East Asia. This implies that the temperature decreases during abrupt climatic events were mainly a winter phenomenon. Within the limits of the dating uncertainties, the broadly similar pattern of winter-weighted temperature change observed in both tropical Lake Huguangyan and in Greenland ice cores indicates the occurrence of tightly-coupled interactions between high latitude ice sheets and land areas in the tropics. We suggest that the winter monsoon (especially cold surges) could play an important role in the rapid transmission of the temperature signal from the Arctic to the tropics.

A generalized conditional heteroscedastic model for temperature downscaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Modarres, R.; Ouarda, T. B. M. J.

2014-11-01

This study describes a method for deriving the time varying second order moment, or heteroscedasticity, of local daily temperature and its association to large Coupled Canadian General Circulation Models predictors. This is carried out by applying a multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) approach to construct the conditional variance-covariance structure between General Circulation Models (GCMs) predictors and maximum and minimum temperature time series during 1980-2000. Two MGARCH specifications namely diagonal VECH and dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) are applied and 25 GCM predictors were selected for a bivariate temperature heteroscedastic modeling. It is observed that the conditional covariance between predictors and temperature is not very strong and mostly depends on the interaction between the random process governing temporal variation of predictors and predictants. The DCC model reveals a time varying conditional correlation between GCM predictors and temperature time series. No remarkable increasing or decreasing change is observed for correlation coefficients between GCM predictors and observed temperature during 1980-2000 while weak winter-summer seasonality is clear for both conditional covariance and correlation. Furthermore, the stationarity and nonlinearity Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) and Brock-Dechert-Scheinkman (BDS) tests showed that GCM predictors, temperature and their conditional correlation time series are nonlinear but stationary during 1980-2000 according to BDS and KPSS test results. However, the degree of nonlinearity of temperature time series is higher than most of the GCM predictors.

Winter range arrival and departure of white-tailed deer in northeastern Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nelson, M.E.

1995-01-01

I analyzed 364 spring and 239 fall migrations by 194 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) from 1975 to 1993 in northeastern Minnesota to determine the proximate cause of arrivals on and departures from winter ranges. The first autumn temperatures below -7?C initiated fall migrations for 14% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0-30) of female deer prior to snowfall in three autumns, but only 2% remained on winter ranges. During 14 autumns, the first temperatures below -7?C coincidental with snowfalls elicited migration in 45% (95% CI = 34-57) of females, and 91 % remained on winter ranges. Arrival dates failed to correlate with independent variables of temperature and snow depth, precluding predictive modeling of arrival on winter ranges. During 13 years, a mean of 80% of females permanently arrived on winter ranges by 31 December. Mean departure dates from winter ranges varied annually (19 March - 4 May) and between winter ranges (14 days) and according to snow depth (15-cm differences). Only 15 - 41 % of deer departed when snow depths were> 30 cm but 80% had done so by the time of lO-cm depths. Mean weekly snow depths in March (18-85 cm) and mean temperature in April (0.3 -8.1 ?c) explained most of the variation in mean departure dates from two winter ranges (Ely, R2 = 0.87, P < 0.0005, n = 19 springs; Isabella, R2 = 0.85, P = 0.0001, n = 12 springs). Mean differences between observed mean departure dates and mean departure dates predicted from equations ranged from 3 days (predictions within the study area) to 8 days (predictions for winter ranges 100-440 km distant).

Winter temperature conditions (1670-2010) reconstructed from varved sediments, western Canadian High Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amann, Benjamin; Lamoureux, Scott F.; Boreux, Maxime P.

2017-09-01

Advances in paleoclimatology from the Arctic have provided insights into long-term climate conditions. However, while past annual and summer temperature have received considerable research attention, comparatively little is known about winter paleoclimate. Arctic winter is of special interest as it is the season with the highest sensitivity to climate change, and because it differs substantially from summer and annual measures. Therefore, information about past changes in winter climate is key to improve our knowledge of past forced climate variability and to reduce uncertainty in climate projections. In this context, Arctic lakes with snowmelt-fed catchments are excellent potential winter climate archives. They respond strongly to snowmelt-induced runoff, and indirectly to winter temperature and snowfall conditions. To date, only a few well-calibrated lake sediment records exist, which appear to reflect site-specific responses with differing reconstructions. This limits the possibility to resolve large-scale winter climate change prior the instrumental period. Here, we present a well-calibrated quantitative temperature and snowfall record for the extended winter season (November through March; NDJFM) from Chevalier Bay (Melville Island, NWT, Canadian Arctic) back to CE 1670. The coastal embayment has a large catchment influenced by nival terrestrial processes, which leads to high sedimentation rates and annual sedimentary structures (varves). Using detailed microstratigraphic analysis from two sediment cores and supported by μ-XRF data, we separated the nival sedimentary units (spring snowmelt) from the rainfall units (summer) and identified subaqueous slumps. Statistical correlation analysis between the proxy data and monthly climate variables reveals that the thickness of the nival units can be used to predict winter temperature (r = 0.71, pc < 0.01, 5-yr filter) and snowfall (r = 0.65, pc < 0.01, 5-yr filter) for the western Canadian High Arctic over the last ca. 400 years. Results reveal a strong variability in winter temperature back to CE 1670 with the coldest decades reconstructed for the period CE 1800-1880, while the warmest decades and major trends are reconstructed for the period CE 1880-1930 (0.26°C/decade) and CE 1970-2010 (0.37°C/decade). Although the first aim of this study was to increase the paleoclimate data coverage for the winter season, the record from Chevalier Bay also holds great potential for more applied climate research such as data-model comparisons and proxy-data assimilation in climate model simulations.

On the Influence of North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature on the Arctic Winter Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Newman, P. A.; Garfinkel, C. I.

2012-01-01

Differences between two ensembles of Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model simulations isolate the impact of North Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on the Arctic winter climate. One ensemble of extended winter season forecasts is forced by unusually high SSTs in the North Pacific, while in the second ensemble SSTs in the North Pacific are unusually low. High Low differences are consistent with a weakened Western Pacific atmospheric teleconnection pattern, and in particular, a weakening of the Aleutian low. This relative change in tropospheric circulation inhibits planetary wave propagation into the stratosphere, in turn reducing polar stratospheric temperature in mid- and late winter. The number of winters with sudden stratospheric warmings is approximately tripled in the Low ensemble as compared with the High ensemble. Enhanced North Pacific SSTs, and thus a more stable and persistent Arctic vortex, lead to a relative decrease in lower stratospheric ozone in late winter, affecting the April clear-sky UV index at Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes.

Seasonal variations in larval biomass and biochemical composition of brown shrimp, Crangon crangon (Decapoda, Caridea), at hatching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urzúa, Ángel; Anger, Klaus

2013-06-01

The "brown shrimp", Crangon crangon (Linnaeus 1758), is a benthic key species in the North Sea ecosystem, supporting an intense commercial fishery. Its reproductive pattern is characterized by a continuous spawning season from mid-winter to early autumn. During this extended period, C. crangon shows significant seasonal variations in egg size and embryonic biomass, which may influence larval quality at hatching. In the present study, we quantified seasonal changes in dry weight (W) and chemical composition (CHN, protein and lipid) of newly hatched larvae of C. crangon. Our data revealed significant variations, with maximum biomass values at the beginning of the hatching season (February-March), a decrease throughout spring (April-May) and a minimum in summer (June-September). While all absolute values of biomass and biochemical constituents per larva showed highly significant differences between months ( P < 0.001), CHN, protein and lipid concentrations (expressed as percentage values of dry weight) showed only marginally significant differences ( P < 0.05). According to generalized additive models (GAM), key variables of embryonic development exerted significant effects on larval condition at hatching: The larval carbon content (C) was positively correlated with embryonic carbon content shortly after egg-laying ( r 2 = 0.60; P < 0.001) and negatively with the average incubation temperature during the period of embryonic development ( r 2 = 0.35; P < 0.001). Additionally, water temperature ( r 2 = 0.57; P < 0.001) and food availability (phytoplankton C; r 2 = 0.39; P < 0.001) at the time of hatching were negatively correlated with larval C content at hatching. In conclusion, "winter larvae" hatching from larger "winter eggs" showed higher initial values of biomass compared to "summer larvae" originating from smaller "summer eggs". This indicates carry-over effects persisting from the embryonic to the larval phase. Since "winter larvae" are more likely exposed to poor nutritional conditions, intraspecific variability in larval biomass at hatching is interpreted as part of an adaptive reproductive strategy compensating for strong seasonality in plankton production and transitory periods of larval food limitation.

Attribution of low precipitation in California during the winter of 2013-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mera, R. J.; Ekwurzel, B.; Rupp, D. E.

2014-12-01

The record-setting drought in the state of California was further aggravated by extreme low precipitation in the winter of 2013-2014 and the associated low snow cover over the Sierra Nevada. Attribution work on the decline in Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover (Rupp et al. 2013) has shown that the decrease was likely the result of combined natural and anthropogenic forcing but not by natural forcing alone. Regional model superensemble simulations of snow water equivalent (SWE) with the Hadley Regional Climate Model (HadRM3P) shows the decline as a statistically-significant, linear trend for the Western US from 1961 to 2010. The present work focuses on attribution of these events by employing a superensemble of regional climate model simulations from the climateprediction.net (CPDN) experiment, which allows for robust statistical analysis of extreme events. Specifically, we compare the decade of the 2000s and the 1960s, which had different levels of heat-trapping gases and forcing from natural variability, among other factors. A linear regression of wet days and number of days with precipitation above 40 mm shows a strong drying pattern for the winter months of December, January, February, March (DJFM), especially for northern California and the Sierra Nevada. A strong warming pattern is also present during the winter months, with the minimum temperatures outpacing maximum temperatures for the Pacific Northwest. We will also investigate how simulations for DJFM 2013-2014, using only natural forcing provided CMIP5 HistoricalNat boundary conditions, compare against the model simulations using observations as boundary conditions. Results from this experiment also highlight the influence of increasing number of simulations on confidence intervals, which significantly reduces the uncertainty of both the change in magnitude of a given event and its corresponding return period.Rupp, David E., Philip W. Mote, Nathaniel L. Bindoff, Peter A. Stott, David A. Robinson, 2013: Detection and Attribution of Observed Changes in Northern Hemisphere Spring Snow Cover. J. Climate, 26, 6904-6914.doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00563.1

Intensity, frequency and spatial configuration of winter temperature inversions in the closed La Brevine valley, Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vitasse, Yann; Klein, Geoffrey; Kirchner, James W.; Rebetez, Martine

2017-11-01

Some of the world's valleys are famous for having particularly cold microclimates. The La Brevine valley, in the Swiss Jura Mountains, holds the record for the lowest temperature ever measured in an inhabited location in Switzerland. We studied cold air pools (CAPs) in this valley during the winter of 2014-2015 using 44 temperature data loggers distributed between 1033 and 1293 m asl. Our goals were to (i) describe the climatic conditions under which CAPs form in the valley, (ii) examine the spatial configuration and the temperature structure of the CAPs and (iii) quantify how often temperature inversions occur in winter using long-term series of temperature from the valley floor. Our results show that CAPs occurred every second night, on average, during the winter of 2014-2015 and were typically formed under cloudless, windless and high-pressure conditions. Strong temperature inversions up to 28 °C were detected between the valley floor and the surrounding hills. The spatial temperature structure of the CAPs varies among the different inversion days, with the upper boundary of the cold pool generally situated at about 1150 m asl. Although mean temperatures have increased in this area over the period 1960-2015 in connection with climate change, the occurrences of extreme cold temperatures did not decrease in winter and are highly correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation and the East Atlantic indices. This suggests that CAPs in sheltered valleys are largely decoupled from the free atmosphere temperature and will likely continue to occur in the next decades under warmer conditions.

The slab thickness of the mid-latitude ionosphere.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Titheridge, J. E.

1973-01-01

The thickness of the peak of the ionosphere depends primarily on the temperature T sub n of the neutral gas, and corresponds approximately to an alpha-Chapman layer at a temperature of 0.87T sub n. The overall slab thickness, as given by Faraday rotation measurements, is then tau = 0.22T sub n + 7 km. Expansion of the topside ionosphere, and changes in the E- and F1-regions increase tau by about 20 km during the day in summer. Near solar minimum, tau is increased by a lowering of the O(+)/H(+) transition height; if the neutral temperature T sub n is estimated, this height can be obtained from observed values of tau. Hourly values of slab thickness were determined over a period of 6 yr at 34 and 42 S. Near solar maximum the nighttime values were about 260 km in all seasons. The corresponding neutral temperatures agree with satellite drag values; they show a semiannual variation of 14% and a seasonal change of 5%. Daytime values of tau were about 230 km in winter and 320 km in summer, implying a seasonal change of 30% in T sub n.

ENSO's far reaching connection to Indian cold waves.

PubMed

Ratnam, J V; Behera, Swadhin K; Annamalai, H; Ratna, Satyaban B; Rajeevan, M; Yamagata, Toshio

2016-11-23

During boreal winters, cold waves over India are primarily due to transport of cold air from higher latitudes. However, the processes associated with these cold waves are not yet clearly understood. Here by diagnosing a suite of datasets, we explore the mechanisms leading to the development and maintenance of these cold waves. Two types of cold waves are identified based on observed minimum surface temperature and statistical analysis. The first type (TYPE1), also the dominant one, depicts colder than normal temperatures covering most parts of the country while the second type (TYPE2) is more regional, with significant cold temperatures only noticeable over northwest India. Quite interestingly the first (second) type is associated with La Niña (El Niño) like conditions, suggesting that both phases of ENSO provide a favorable background for the occurrence of cold waves over India. During TYPE1 cold wave events, a low-level cyclonic anomaly generated over the Indian region as an atmospheric response to the equatorial convective anomalies is seen advecting cold temperatures into India and maintaining the cold waves. In TYPE2 cold waves, a cyclonic anomaly generated over west India anomalously brings cold winds to northwest India causing cold waves only in those parts.

Climatic controls on the global distribution, abundance, and species richness of mangrove forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Osland, Michael J.; Feher, Laura C.; Griffith, Kereen; Cavanaugh, Kyle C.; Enwright, Nicholas M.; Day, Richard H.; Stagg, Camille L.; Krauss, Ken W.; Howard, Rebecca J.; Grace, James B.; Rogers, Kerrylee

2017-01-01

Mangrove forests are highly productive tidal saline wetland ecosystems found along sheltered tropical and subtropical coasts. Ecologists have long assumed that climatic drivers (i.e., temperature and rainfall regimes) govern the global distribution, structure, and function of mangrove forests. However, data constraints have hindered the quantification of direct climate-mangrove linkages in many parts of the world. Recently, the quality and availability of global-scale climate and mangrove data have been improving. Here, we used these data to better understand the influence of air temperature and rainfall regimes upon the distribution, abundance, and species richness of mangrove forests. Although our analyses identify global-scale relationships and thresholds, we show that the influence of climatic drivers is best characterized via regional range limit-specific analyses. We quantified climatic controls across targeted gradients in temperature and/or rainfall within 14 mangrove distributional range limits. Climatic thresholds for mangrove presence, abundance, and species richness differed among the 14 studied range limits. We identified minimum temperature-based thresholds for range limits in eastern North America, eastern Australia, New Zealand, eastern Asia, eastern South America, and southeast Africa. We identified rainfall-based thresholds for range limits in western North America, western Gulf of Mexico, western South America, western Australia, Middle East, northwest Africa, east central Africa, and west central Africa. Our results show that in certain range limits (e.g., eastern North America, western Gulf of Mexico, eastern Asia), winter air temperature extremes play an especially important role. We conclude that rainfall and temperature regimes are both important in western North America, western Gulf of Mexico, and western Australia. With climate change, alterations in temperature and rainfall regimes will affect the global distribution, abundance, and diversity of mangrove forests. In general, warmer winter temperatures are expected to allow mangroves to expand poleward at the expense of salt marshes. However, dispersal and habitat availability constraints may hinder expansion near certain range limits. Along arid and semi-arid coasts, decreases or increases in rainfall are expected to lead to mangrove contraction or expansion, respectively. Collectively, our analyses quantify climate-mangrove linkages and improve our understanding of the expected global- and regional-scale effects of climate change upon mangrove forests.

Fidelity and persistence of Ring-billed (Larus delawarensis) and Herring (Larus argentatus) gulls to wintering sites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clark, Daniel E.; Koenen, Kiana K. G.; Whitney, Jillian J.; MacKenzie, Kenneth G.; DeStefano, Stephen

2016-01-01

While the breeding ecology of gulls (Laridae) has been well studied, their movements and spatial organization during the non-breeding season is poorly understood. The seasonal movements, winter-site fidelity, and site persistence of Ring-billed (Larus delawarensis) and Herring (L. argentatus) gulls to wintering areas were studied from 2008–2012. Satellite transmitters were deployed on Ring-billed Gulls (n = 21) and Herring Gulls (n = 14). Ten Ring-billed and six Herring gulls were tracked over multiple winters and > 300 wing-tagged Ring-billed Gulls were followed to determine winter-site fidelity and persistence. Home range overlap for individuals between years ranged between 0–1.0 (95% minimum convex polygon) and 0.31–0.79 (kernel utilization distributions). Ringbilled and Herring gulls remained at local wintering sites during the non-breeding season from 20–167 days and 74–161 days, respectively. The probability of a tagged Ring-billed Gull returning to the same site in subsequent winters was high; conversely, there was a low probability of a Ring-billed Gull returning to a different site. Ring-billed and Herring gulls exhibited high winter-site fidelity, but exhibited variable site persistence during the winter season, leading to a high probability of encountering the same individuals in subsequent winters.

Temperature sequence of eggs from oviposition through distribution: processing--part 2.

PubMed

Koelkebeck, K W; Patterson, P H; Anderson, K E; Darre, M J; Carey, J B; Ahn, D U; Ernst, R A; Kuney, D R; Jones, D

2008-06-01

The Egg Safety Action Plan released in 1999 raised questions concerning egg temperature used in the risk assessment model. Therefore, a national study was initiated to determine the internal and external temperature sequence of eggs from oviposition through distribution. Researchers gathered data from commercial egg production, shell egg processing, and distribution facilities. The experimental design was a mixed model with 2 random effects for season and geographic region and a fixed effect for operation type (inline or offline). For this report, internal and external egg temperature data were recorded at specific points during shell egg processing in the winter and summer months. In addition, internal egg temperatures were recorded in pre- and postshell egg processing cooler areas. There was a significant season x geographic region interaction (P < 0.05) for both surface and internal temperatures. Egg temperatures were lower in the winter vs. summer, but eggs gained in temperature from the accumulator to the postshell egg processing cooler. During shell egg processing, summer egg surface and internal temperatures were greater (P < 0.05) than during the winter. When examining the effect of shell egg processing time and conditions, it was found that 2.4 and 3.8 degrees C were added to egg surface temperatures, and 3.3 and 6.0 degrees C were added to internal temperatures in the summer and winter, respectively. Internal egg temperatures were higher (P < 0.05) in the preshell egg processing cooler area during the summer vs. winter, and internal egg temperatures were higher (P < 0.05) in the summer when eggs were (3/4) cool (temperature change required to meet USDA-Agricultural Marketing Service storage regulation of 7.2 degrees C) in the postshell egg processing area. However, the cooling rate was not different (P > 0.05) for eggs in the postshell egg processing cooler area in the summer vs. winter. Therefore, these data suggest that season of year and geographic location can affect the temperature of eggs during shell egg processing and should be a component in future assessments of egg safety.

Climate impacts of the NAO are sensitive to how the NAO is defined

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pokorná, Lucie; Huth, Radan

2015-02-01

We analyze the sensitivity of the effects the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) exerts on surface temperature and precipitation in Europe to the definition of the NAO index. Seven different NAO indices are examined: two based on station sea level pressure (SLP) data, two based on action centers, and three based on correlation/covariance structures described by principal component analysis (PCA). The analysis is based on monthly mean data; winter and summer seasons are analyzed separately. Temporal correlations between indices are weaker in summer than in winter for most pairs of indices. In particular, low correlations are found between station indices on the one hand and PCA-based indices on the other hand. The NAO effects are quantified by correlations between the indices and station data in Europe. Effects of the NAO on precipitation amount and wet day probability are very similar, while NAO effects on maximum temperature are stronger than those on minimum temperature. The sensitivity of the NAO effects on both surface temperature and precipitation to the choice of the NAO index is considerably higher in summer. Correlations differ among the NAO indices not only in their magnitude but in some regions in summer also in their sign. These effects can be explained by a northward shift of the whole NAO pattern and its action centers in summer, away from the sites on which the station indices are based, and by a decoupling of the Azores high and Icelandic low from the centers of high covariability, identified by PCA. Considerable differences in SLP anomaly patterns associated to individual NAO indices also contribute to different responses in temperature and precipitation. Finally, we formulate two recommendations to future analyses of NAO effects on surface climate: use several different NAO indices instead of a single one, and for summer do not use station indices because they do not represent the circulation variability related to the NAO.

Winter CO2 efflux from cold semiarid sagebrush shrublands distributed across the rain-to-snow transition zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fellows, A.; Flerchinger, G. N.; Lohse, K. A.; Seyfried, M. S.

2017-12-01

Predicting winter CO2 efflux across the rain-to-snow transition zone is challenging in the cold semiarid northern Great Basin, USA, complicated by steep environmental gradients and marked heterogeneity in ecosystem properties. We therefore examined winter CO2 efflux over 9 site-years using 4 eddy covariance towers located in the Reynolds Creek Critical Zone Observatory. The sites were sagebrush shrublands located at 1425, 1680, 2098, and 2111 m, and spanned a large part of the rain-to-snow transition zone. We focused on two objectives. First, we quantified winter CO2 efflux at the sites, and considered how these varied with elevation. Second, we used a within-site and cross-site analysis to examine the biological and physical factors that impact winter CO2 efflux. Winter conditions were identified using temperature, snow depth, and CO2 exchange measurements and included 12,922 observations. The duration of winter conditions increased from 90 to 180 days with elevation. Peak snow depth increased from < 30 to > 100 cm with elevation. Cumulative winter CO2 efflux accounted for > 10% of the total annual CO2 efflux, increased with elevation, and was a key component of net ecosystem production at some sites in some years. The importance of winter CO2 efflux was accentuated by the region's long winters and also dry summers that decreased water availability and decomposition during non-winter periods. Preliminary regressions examining air temperature, soil temperature, wind speed, snow depth, and gross carbon uptake indicated some of these factors control the rate of winter CO2 efflux and require consideration, but that additional work is needed to disentangle co-linearity and assess the importance of these factors within and between sites. These findings suggest a consideration of winter CO2 efflux is warranted in cold winter-wet semiarid ecosystems, particularly where winters are long and non-winter CO2 efflux is strongly limited by water availability.

Ecology and demographics of Pacific sand lance, Ammodytes hexapterus Pallas, in Lower Cook Inlet, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robards, Martin D.; Piatt, John F.

2000-01-01

Distinct sand lance populations occur within the relatively small geographic area of Lower Cook Inlet, Alaska. Marked meso-scale differences in abundance, growth, and mortality exist as a consequence of differing oceanographic regimes. Growth rate within populations (between years) was positively correlated with temperature. However, this did not extend to inter-population comparisons where differing growth rates were better correlated to marine productivity. Most sand lance reached maturity in their second year. Field observations and indices of maturity, gonad development, and ova-size distribution all indicated that sand lance spawn once each year. Sand lance spawned intertidally in late September and October on fine gravel/sandy beaches. Embryos developed over 67 days through periods of intertidal exposure and sub-freezing air temperatures. Mean dry-weight energy value of sand lance cycles seasonally, peaking in spring and early summer (20.91 kJg-1 for males, 21.08 kJg-1 for females), and subsequently declining by about 25% during late summer and fall (15.91 kJg-1 for males, 15.74 kJg-1 for females). Sand lance enter the winter with close to their minimum whole body energy content. Dry weight energy densities of juveniles increased from a minimum 16.67 kJg-1 to a maximum of 19.68 kJg-1 and are higher than adults in late summer.

Effect of temperature on wheat streak mosaic disease development in winter wheat

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Temperature is one of the key factors that influence viral disease development in plants. In this study, temperature effect on Wheat streak mosaic virus (WSMV) replication and in planta movement was determined using a green fluorescent protein (GFP)-tagged virus in two winter wheat cultivars. Virus-...

76 FR 14616 - Approval and Promulgation of Implementation Plans; State of California; Interstate Transport of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-03-17

... during the winter time, when frequent and persistent temperature inversions occur, were specifically... winds and strong temperature inversions. These meteorological conditions may trap emissions within the... show a very high frequency of surface temperature inversions in the winter. Due to the meteorology...

Regional climate of the Subtropical Central Andes using high-resolution CMIP5 models. Part II: future projections for the twenty-first century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zazulie, Natalia; Rusticucci, Matilde; Raga, Graciela B.

2017-12-01

In Part I of our study (Zazulie et al. Clim Dyn, 2017, hereafter Z17) we analyzed the ability of a subset of fifteen high-resolution global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 to reproduce the past climate of the Subtropical Central Andes (SCA) of Argentina and Chile. A subset of only five GCMs was shown to reproduce well the past climate (1980-2005), for austral summer and winter. In this study we analyze future climate projections for the twenty-first century over this complex orography region using those five GCMs. We evaluate the projections under two of the representative concentration pathways considered as future scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Future projections indicate warming during the twenty-first century over the SCA region, especially pronounced over the mountains. Projections of warming at high elevations in the SCA depend on altitude, and are larger than the projected global mean warming. This phenomenon is expected to strengthen by the end of the century under the high-emission scenario. Increases in winter temperatures of up to 2.5 °C, relative to 1980-2005, are projected by 2040-2065, while a 5 °C warming is expected at the highest elevations by 2075-2100. Such a large monthly-mean warming during winter would most likely result in snowpack melting by late winter-early spring, with serious implication for water availability during summer, when precipitation is a minimum over the mountains. We also explore changes in the albedo, as a contributing factor affecting the net flux of energy at the surface and found a reduction in albedo of 20-60% at high elevations, related to the elevation dependent warming. Furthermore, a decrease in winter precipitation is projected in central Chile by the end of the century, independent of the scenario considered.

Geographic variation in winter adaptations of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gigliotti, Laura C.; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Sheriff, M.J.

2017-01-01

Understanding adaptations of nonhibernating northern endotherms to cope with extreme cold is important because climate-induced changes in winter temperatures and snow cover are predicted to impact these species the most. We compared winter pelage characteristics and heat production of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus Erxleben, 1777) on the southern edge of their range, in Pennsylvania (USA), to a northern population, in the Yukon (Canada), to investigate how hares might respond to changing environmental conditions. We also investigated how hares in Pennsylvania altered movement rates and resting spot selection to cope with variable winter temperatures. Hares from Pennsylvania had shorter, less dense, and less white winter coats than their northern counterparts, suggesting lower coat insulation. Hares in the southern population had lower pelage temperatures, indicating that they produced less heat than those in the northern population. In addition, hares in Pennsylvania did not select for resting spots that offered thermal advantages, but selected locations offering visual obstruction from predators. Movement rates were associated with ambient temperature, with the smallest movements occurring at the lower and upper range of observed ambient temperatures. Our results indicate that snowshoe hares may be able to adapt to future climate conditions via changes in pelage characteristics, metabolism, and behavior.

Evaluation of reanalysis datasets against observational soil temperature data over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Kai; Zhang, Jingyong

2018-01-01

Soil temperature is a key land surface variable, and is a potential predictor for seasonal climate anomalies and extremes. Using observational soil temperature data in China for 1981-2005, we evaluate four reanalysis datasets, the land surface reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA-Interim/Land), the second modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications (MERRA-2), the National Center for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR), and version 2 of the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS-2.0), with a focus on 40 cm soil layer. The results show that reanalysis data can mainly reproduce the spatial distributions of soil temperature in summer and winter, especially over the east of China, but generally underestimate their magnitudes. Owing to the influence of precipitation on soil temperature, the four datasets perform better in winter than in summer. The ERA-Interim/Land and GLDAS-2.0 produce spatial characteristics of the climatological mean that are similar to observations. The interannual variability of soil temperature is well reproduced by the ERA-Interim/Land dataset in summer and by the CFSR dataset in winter. The linear trend of soil temperature in summer is well rebuilt by reanalysis datasets. We demonstrate that soil heat fluxes in April-June and in winter are highly correlated with the soil temperature in summer and winter, respectively. Different estimations of surface energy balance components can contribute to different behaviors in reanalysis products in terms of estimating soil temperature. In addition, reanalysis datasets can mainly rebuild the northwest-southeast gradient of soil temperature memory over China.

Elephant (Loxodonta africana) home ranges in Sabi Sand Reserve and Kruger National Park: a five-year satellite tracking study.

PubMed

Thomas, Bindi; Holland, John D; Minot, Edward O

2008-01-01

During a five-year GPS satellite tracking study in Sabi Sand Reserve (SSR) and Kruger National Park (KNP) we monitored the daily movements of an elephant cow (Loxodonta africana) from September 2003 to August 2008. The study animal was confirmed to be part of a group of seven elephants therefore her position is representative of the matriarchal group. We found that the study animal did not use habitat randomly and confirmed strong seasonal fidelity to its summer and winter five-year home ranges. The cow's summer home range was in KNP in an area more than four times that of her SSR winter home range. She exhibited clear park habitation with up to three visits per year travelling via a well-defined northern or southern corridor. There was a positive correlation between the daily distance the elephant walked and minimum daily temperature and the elephant was significantly closer to rivers and artificial waterholes than would be expected if it were moving randomly in KNP and SSR. Transect lines established through the home ranges were surveyed to further understand the fine scale of the landscape and vegetation representative of the home ranges.

Survival of female American Woodcock breeding in Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Longcore, J.R.; McAuley, D.G.; Sepik, G.F.; Pendleton, G.W.; McAuley, Daniel G.; Bruggink, John G.; Sepik, Greg F.

2000-01-01

During 1986-1989, 89 female American woodcock (Scolopax minor) included in this study were radio-marked and survival estimated for the period 1 Aprii-15 June. Eleven woodcock died: five (45%) were killed by mammals, two (18%) by unknown predators, and one (9%) by a raptor; two (18%) died from entanglement in the transmitter harness; and 1 (9%) collided with a vehicle. Survival varied among years from 0.700 (1986) to 0.900 (1989) with a 4-year mean (95% CI) of 0.826. Survival did not differ between age classes (P = 0.900), or among years (P > 0.14), except for higher (P = 0.025) survival (0.875) in 1987 than in 1988 (0.735). A composite survival estimate--based on telemetry studies for the breeding, post-breeding, and winter periods-- was 0.363 for immatures and 0.474 for adults. Mean weights were not different between second year and after second year age classes (P = 0.167), but weight was related to woodcock capture date (P = 0.001). Survival for female woodcock was not related to mean snow depth or to mean, minimum temperature in winter or spring. Habitat use was different between females that died and those that lived, but sample size was small.

Seasonal changes in the cardiovascular, respiratory and metabolic responses to temperature and hypoxia in the bullfrog Rana catesbeiana.

PubMed

Rocha, P L; Branco, L G

1998-03-01

We assessed seasonal variations in the effects of temperature on hypoxia-induced alterations in the bullfrog Rana catesbeiana by measuring the heart rate, arterial blood pressure, breathing frequency, metabolic rate, blood gas levels, acid-base status and plasma glucose concentration. Regardless of the season, decreased body temperature was accompanied by a reduction in heart and breathing frequencies. Lower temperatures caused a significant decrease in arterial blood pressure during all four seasons. Hypoxia-induced changes in breathing frequency were proportional to body temperature and were more pronounced during winter, less so during spring and autumn and even smaller during summer. Season had no effect on the relationship between hypoxia and heart rate. At any temperature tested, the rate of oxygen consumption had a tendency to be highest during summer and lowest during winter, but the difference was significant only at 35 degrees C. The PaO2 and pH values showed no significant change during the year, but PaCO2 was almost twice as high during winter than in summer and spring, indicating increased plasma bicarbonate levels. Lower temperatures were accompanied by decreased plasma glucose levels, and this effect was greater during summer and smaller during autumn. Hypoxia-induced hyperglycaemia was influenced by temperature and season. During autumn and winter, plasma glucose level remained elevated regardless of temperature, probably to avoid dehydration and/or freezing. In winter, the bullfrog may be exposed not only to low temperatures but also to hypoxia. These animals show temperature-dependent responses that may be beneficial since at low body temperatures the set-points of most physiological responses to hypoxia are reduced, regardless of the season.

Historic Variations in Winter Indoor Domestic Temperatures and Potential Implications for Body Weight Gain

PubMed Central

Johnson, F.; Ucci, M.; Marmot, A.; Wardle, J.; Oreszczyn, T.; Summerfield, A.

2013-01-01

It has been argued that the amount of time spent by humans in thermoneutral environments has increased in recent decades. This paper examines evidence of historic changes in winter domestic temperatures in industrialised countries. Future trajectories for indoor thermal comfort are also explored. Whilst methodological differences across studies make it difficult to compare data and accurately estimate the absolute size of historic changes in indoor domestic temperatures, data analysis does suggest an upward trend, particularly in bedrooms. The variations in indoor winter residential temperatures might have been further exacerbated in some countries by a temporary drop in demand temperatures due to the 1970s energy crisis, as well as by recent changes in the building stock. In the United Kingdom, for example, spot measurement data indicate that an increase of up to 1.3°C per decade in mean dwelling winter indoor temperatures may have occurred from 1978 to 1996. The findings of this review paper are also discussed in the context of their significance for human health and well-being. In particular, historic indoor domestic temperature trends are discussed in conjunction with evidence on the links between low ambient temperatures, body energy expenditure and weight gain. PMID:26321874

Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes observed in Modena, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boccolari, M.; Malmusi, S.

2013-03-01

Climate changes has become one of the most analysed subjects from researchers community, mainly because of the numerous extreme events that hit the globe. To have a better view of climate changes and trends, long observations time series are needed. During last decade a lot of Italian time series, concerning several surface meteorological variables, have been analysed and published. No one of them includes one of the longest record in Italy, the time series of the Geophysical Observatory of the University of Modena and Reggio Emilia. Measurements, collected since early 19th century, always in the same position, except for some months during the second world war, embrace daily temperature, precipitation amount, relative humidity, pressure, cloudiness and other variables. In this work we concentrated on the analysis of yearly and seasonal trends and climate extremes of temperature, both minimum and maximum, and precipitation time series, for the periods 1861-2010 and 1831-2010 respectively, in which continuous measurements are available. In general, our results confirm quite well those reported by IPCC and in many other studies over Mediterranean area. In particular, we found that minimum temperature has a non significant positive trend of + 0.1 °C per decade considering all the period, the value increases to 0.9 °C per decade for 1981-2010. For maximum temperature we observed a non significant + 0.1 °C trend for all the period, while + 0.8 °C for the last thirty years. On the other hand precipitation is decreasing, -6.3 mm per decade, considering all the analysed period, while the last thirty years are characterised by a great increment of 74.8 mm per decade. For both variables several climate indices have been analysed and they confirm what has been found for minimum and maximum temperatures and precipitation. In particular, during last 30 years frost days and ice days are decreasing, whereas summer days are increasing. During the last 30-year tropical nights and warm spell duration indices are characterised by a particular strong increment, if compared to the ones of the entire period. Finally, a cursory comparison between winter precipitation and NAO index was done, showing a high anti-correlation, especially since the second half of 20th century.

Shearing at the end of summer affects body temperature of free-living Angora goats ( Capra aegagrus) more than does shearing at the end of winter.

PubMed

Hetem, R S; de Witt, B A; Fick, L G; Fuller, A; Kerley, G I H; Maloney, S K; Meyer, L C R; Mitchell, D

2009-07-01

Angora goats are known to be vulnerable to cold stress, especially after shearing, but their thermoregulatory responses to shearing have not been measured. We recorded activity, and abdominal and subcutaneous temperatures, for 10 days pre-shearing and post-shearing, in 10 Angora goats inhabiting the succulent thicket of the Eastern Cape, South Africa, in both March (late summer) and September (late winter). Within each season, environmental conditions were similar pre-shearing and post-shearing, but September was an average 5°C colder than March. Shearing resulted in a decreased mean (P < 0.0001), minimum (P < 0.0001) and maximum daily abdominal temperature (P < 0.0001). Paradoxically, the decrease in daily mean (P = 0.03) and maximum (P = 0.01) abdominal temperatures, from pre-shearing to post-shearing, was greater in March than in September. Daily amplitude of body temperature rhythm (P < 0.0001) and the maximum rate of abdominal temperature rise (P < 0.0001) increased from pre-shearing to post-shearing, resulting in an earlier diurnal peak in abdominal temperature (P = 0.001) post-shearing. These changes in amplitude, rate of abdominal temperature rise and time of diurnal peak in abdominal temperature suggest that the goats' thermoregulatory system was more labile after shearing. Mean daily subcutaneous temperatures also decreased post-shearing (P < 0.0001), despite our index goat selecting more stable microclimates after shearing in March (P = 0.03). Following shearing, there was an increased difference between abdominal and subcutaneous temperatures (P < 0.0001) at night, suggesting that the goats used peripheral vasoconstriction to limit heat loss. In addition to these temperature changes, mean daily activity increased nearly two-fold after March shearing, but not September shearing. This increased activity after March shearing was likely the result of an increased foraging time, food intake and metabolic rate, as suggested by the increased water influx (P = 0.0008). Thus, Angora goats entered a heat conservation mode after shearing in both March and September. That the transition from the fleeced to the shorn state had greater thermoregulatory consequences in March than in September may provide a mechanistic explanation for Angora goats' vulnerability to cold in summer.

Analysis of the synoptic winter mortality climatology in five regions of England: Searching for evidence of weather signals.

PubMed

Paschalidou, A K; Kassomenos, P A; McGregor, G R

2017-11-15

Although heat-related mortality has received considerable research attention, the impact of cold weather on public health is less well-developed, probably due to the fact that physiological responses to cold weather can vary substantially among individuals, age groups, diseases etc., depending on a number of behavioral and physiological factors. In the current work we use the classification techniques provided by the COST-733 software to link synoptic circulation patterns with excess cold-related mortality in 5 regions of England. We conclude that, regardless of the classification scheme used, the most hazardous conditions for public health in England are associated with the prevalence of the Easterly type of weather, favoring advection of cold air from continental Europe. It is noteworthy that there has been observed little-to-no regional variation with regards to the classification results among the 5 regions, suggestive of a spatially homogenous response of mortality to the atmospheric patterns identified. In general, the 10 different groupings of days used reveal that excess winter mortality is linked with the lowest daily minimum/maximum temperatures in the area. However it is not uncommon to observe high mortality rates during days with higher, in relative terms, temperatures, when rapidly changing weather results in an increase of mortality. Such a finding confirms the complexity of cold-related mortality and highlights the importance of synoptic climatology in understanding of the phenomenon. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seasonal regional forecast of the minimum sea ice extent in the LapteV Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tremblay, B.; Brunette, C.; Newton, R.

2017-12-01

Late winter anomaly of sea ice export from the peripheral seas of the Atctic Ocean was found to be a useful predictor for the minimum sea ice extent (SIE) in the Arctic Ocean (Williams et al., 2017). In the following, we present a proof of concept for a regional seasonal forecast of the min SIE for the Laptev Sea based on late winter coastal divergence quantified using a Lagrangian Ice Tracking System (LITS) forced with satellite derived sea-ice drifts from the Polar Pathfinder. Following Nikolaeva and Sesterikov (1970), we track an imaginary line just offshore of coastal polynyas in the Laptev Sea from December of the previous year to May 1 of the following year using LITS. Results show that coastal divergence in the Laptev Sea between February 1st and May 1st is best correlated (r = -0.61) with the following September minimum SIE in accord with previous results from Krumpen et al. (2013, for the Laptev Sea) and Williams et a. (2017, for the pan-Arctic). This gives a maximum seasonal predictability of Laptev Sea min SIE anomalies from observations of approximately 40%. Coastal ice divergence leads to formation of thinner ice that melts earlier in early summer, hence creating areas of open water that have a lower albedo and trigger an ice-albedo feedback. In the Laptev Sea, we find that anomalies of coastal divergence in late winter are amplified threefold to result in the September SIE. We also find a correlation coefficient r = 0.49 between February-March-April (FMA) anomalies of coastal divergence with the FMA averaged AO index. Interestingly, the correlation is stronger, r = 0.61, when comparing the FMA coastal divergence anomalies to the DJFMA averaged AO index. It is hypothesized that the AO index at the beginning of the winter (and the associated anomalous sea ice export) also contains information that impact the magnitude of coastal divergence opening later in the winter. Our approach differs from previous approaches (e.g. Krumpen et al and Williams et al) in that the coastal divergence is quantified directly by following the edge of the mobile pack ice in a Lagrangian manner.

Classification tree and minimum-volume ellipsoid analyses of the distribution of ponderosa pine in the western USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Norris, Jodi R.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Betancourt, Julio L.

2006-01-01

Aim? Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson & C. Lawson) is an economically and ecologically important conifer that has a wide geographic range in the western USA, but is mostly absent from the geographic centre of its distribution - the Great Basin and adjoining mountain ranges. Much of its modern range was achieved by migration of geographically distinct Sierra Nevada (P. ponderosa var. ponderosa) and Rocky Mountain (P. ponderosa var. scopulorum) varieties in the last 10,000 years. Previous research has confirmed genetic differences between the two varieties, and measurable genetic exchange occurs where their ranges now overlap in western Montana. A variety of approaches in bioclimatic modelling is required to explore the ecological differences between these varieties and their implications for historical biogeography and impending changes in western landscapes. Location? Western USA. Methods? We used a classification tree analysis and a minimum-volume ellipsoid as models to explain the broad patterns of distribution of ponderosa pine in modern environments using climatic and edaphic variables. Most biogeographical modelling assumes that the target group represents a single, ecologically uniform taxonomic population. Classification tree analysis does not require this assumption because it allows the creation of pathways that predict multiple positive and negative outcomes. Thus, classification tree analysis can be used to test the ecological uniformity of the species. In addition, a multidimensional ellipsoid was constructed to describe the niche of each variety of ponderosa pine, and distances from the niche were calculated and mapped on a 4-km grid for each ecological variable. Results? The resulting classification tree identified three dominant pathways predicting ponderosa pine presence. Two of these three pathways correspond roughly to the distribution of var. ponderosa, and the third pathway generally corresponds to the distribution of var. scopulorum. The classification tree and minimum-volume ellipsoid model show that both varieties have very similar temperature limitations, although var. ponderosa is more limited by the temperature extremes of the continental interior. The precipitation limitations of the two varieties are seasonally different, with var. ponderosa requiring significant winter moisture and var. scopulorum requiring significant summer moisture. Great Basin mountain ranges are too cold at higher elevations to support either variety of ponderosa pine, and at lower elevations are too dry in summer for var. scopulorum and too dry in winter for var. ponderosa. Main conclusions? The classification tree analysis indicates that var. ponderosa is ecologically as well as genetically distinct from var. scopulorum. Ecological differences may maintain genetic separation in spite of a limited zone of introgression between the two varieties in western Montana. Two hypotheses about past and future movements of ponderosa pine emerge from our analyses. The first hypothesis is that, during the last glacial period, colder and/or drier summers truncated most of the range of var. scopulorum in the central Rockies, but had less dramatic effects on the more maritime and winter-wet distribution of var. ponderosa. The second hypothesis is that, all other factors held constant, increasing summer temperatures in the future should produce changes in the distribution of var. scopulorum that are likely to involve range expansions in the central Rockies with the warming of mountain ranges currently too cold but sufficiently wet in summer for var. scopulorum. Finally, our results underscore the growing need to focus on genotypes in biogeographical modelling and ecological forecasting.

Beyond arctic and alpine: the influence of winter climate on temperate ecosystems.

PubMed

Ladwig, Laura M; Ratajczak, Zak R; Ocheltree, Troy W; Hafich, Katya A; Churchill, Amber C; Frey, Sarah J K; Fuss, Colin B; Kazanski, Clare E; Muñoz, Juan D; Petrie, Matthew D; Reinmann, Andrew B; Smith, Jane G

2016-02-01

Winter climate is expected to change under future climate scenarios, yet the majority of winter ecology research is focused in cold-climate ecosystems. In many temperate systems, it is unclear how winter climate relates to biotic responses during the growing season. The objective of this study was to examine how winter weather relates to plant and animal communities in a variety of terrestrial ecosystems ranging from warm deserts to alpine tundra. Specifically, we examined the association between winter weather and plant phenology, plant species richness, consumer abundance, and consumer richness in 11 terrestrial ecosystems associated with the U.S. Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network. To varying degrees, winter precipitation and temperature were correlated with all biotic response variables. Bud break was tightly aligned with end of winter temperatures. For half the sites, winter weather was a better predictor of plant species richness than growing season weather. Warmer winters were correlated with lower consumer abundances in both temperate and alpine systems. Our findings suggest winter weather may have a strong influence on biotic activity during the growing season and should be considered in future studies investigating the effects of climate change on both alpine and temperate systems.

Applying Fibre-Optic Distributed Temperature Sensing to Near-surface Temperature Dynamics of Broadacre Cereals During Radiant Frost Events.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stutsel, B.; Callow, J. N.

2017-12-01

Radiant frost events, particularly those during the reproductive stage of winter cereal growth, cost growers millions of dollars in lost yield. Whilst synoptic drivers of frost and factors influencing temperature variation at the landscape scale are relatively well understood, there is a lack of knowledge surrounding small-scale temperature dynamics within paddocks and plot trials. Other work has also suggested a potential significant temperature gradient (several degrees) vertically from ground to canopy, but this is poorly constrained experimentally. Subtle changes in temperature are important as frost damage generally occurs in a very narrow temperature range (-2 to -5°C). Once a variety's damage threshold is reached, a 1°C difference in minimum temperature can increase damage from 10 to 90%. This study applies Distributed Temperature Sensing (DTS) using fibre optics to understand how minimum temperature evolves during a radiant frost. DTS assesses the difference in attenuation of Raman scattering of a light pulse travelling along a fibre optic cable to measure temperature. A bend insensitive multimode fibre was deployed in a double ended duplex configuration as a "fence" run through four times of sowing at a trial site in the Western Australian Wheatbelt. The fibre optic fence was 160m long and 800mm tall with the fibre optic cable spaced 100mm apart vertically, and calibrated in ambient water ( 10 to 15oC) and a chilled glycol ( -8 to-10 oC) baths. The temperature measurements had a spatial resolution of 0.65m and temporal resolution of 60s, providing 2,215 measurements every minute. The results of this study inform our understanding of the subtle temperature changes from the soil to canopy, providing new insight into how to place traditional temperature loggers to monitor frost damage. It also addresses questions of within-trial temperature variability, and provides an example of how novel techniques such as DTS can be used to improve the way temperature (frost) is incorporated in crop damage models. This data set provided by DTS allows a level of detail that is not possible to record with traditional temperature loggers and shows how this emerging technology can be applied to agricultural applications. This research was supported by the Grains Research and Development Corporation National Frost Initiative.

A Reconstruction of Subtropical Western North Pacific SST Variability Back to 1578, Based on a Porites Coral Sr/Ca Record from the Northern Ryukyus, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kawakubo, Y.; Alibert, C.; Yokoyama, Y.

2017-12-01

We present a seasonal reconstruction of sea surface temperature (SST) from 1578 to 2008, based on a Porites coral Sr/Ca record from the northern Ryukyus, within the Kuroshio southern recirculation gyre. Interannual SST anomalies are generally 0.5°C, making Sr/Ca-derived SST reconstructions a challenging task. Replicate measurements along adjacent coral growth axes, enabled by the laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry technique used here, give evidence of rather large uncertainties. Nonetheless, derived winter SST anomalies are significantly correlated with the Western Pacific atmospheric pattern which has a dominant influence on winter temperature in East Asia. Annual mean SSTs show interdecadal variations, notably cold intervals between 1670 and 1700 during the Maunder Minimum (MM) and between 1766 and 1788 characterized by a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Cold summers in 1783 and 1784 coincide with the long-lasting Laki eruption that had a profound impact on the Northern Hemisphere climate, including the severe "Tenmei" famine in Japan. The decades between 1855 and 1900 are significantly cooler than the first half of the twentieth century, while those between 1700 and 1765, following the MM, are warmer than average. SST variability in the Ryukyus is only marginally influenced by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, so that external forcing remains the main driver of low-frequency temperature changes. However, the close connection between the Kuroshio extension (KE) and its recirculation gyre suggests that decadal SST anomalies associated with the KE front also impact the Ryukyus, and there is a possible additional role for feedback of the Kuroshio-Oyashio variability to the large-scale atmosphere at decadal timescale.

Annual and seasonal distribution of day and night Land Surface Temperature trend over Greece.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lakshmi, V.; Gemitzi, A.; Eleftheriou, D.; Kalea, A.; Kalmintzis, G.; Kiachidis, K.; Koumadoraki, P.; Mpantasis, C.; Spathara, M. E.; Tsolaki, A.; Tzampazidou, M. I.

2017-12-01

Climate change is one of the most challenging research topics during the last few decades, as temperature rise has already posed a significant impact on earth's functions affecting thus all life of the planet. The present study investigates the distribution of day and night Land Surface Temperature (LST) trends over Greece, a country in Mediterranean area which is identified as one of the main ``hot-spots" of climate change projections. Remotely sensed LST data were obtained from MODIS sensor in the form of 8-day composites of day and night values at a resolution of 1km for a 17-year period, i.e. from 2000 to 2017. Spatial aggregates of 10km x 10km were computed and the annual and seasonal temporal trends were determined for each one of those sub-areas. Results showed that annual trends of daily LST in the majority of areas demonstrated decrease ranging from -1*10-2 oC to -1.3*10-3 oC, with some sporadic parts showing a slight increase. A totally different outcome is observed in the fate of night LST, with all areas over Greece demonstrating increasing annual trends ranging from 4.6 * 10-5 oC to 3.1 * 10-3 oC, with highest values in the South-East parts of the country. Seasonal trends in day and night LST showed the same pattern, i.e., a general decrease in the day LST and a definite increase in night. An interesting finding is the increase in winter LST trends observed both for day and night LST, indicating that the absolute minimum annual LST observed during winter in Greece increases. Our results also indicate that the difference between the day and night LST is decreasing.

Large-Scale Antecedent Conditions Associated with 2014-2015 Winter Onset over North America and mid-Winter Storminess Along the North Atlantic Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bosart, L. F.; Papin, P. P.; Bentley, A. M.; Benjamin, M.; Winters, A. C.

2015-12-01

Winter 2014-2015 was marked by the coldest November weather in 35 years east of the Rockies and record-breaking snowstorms and cold from the eastern Great Lakes to Atlantic Canada in January and February 2015. Record-breaking warmth prevailed across the Intermountain West and Rockies beneath a persistent upper-level ridge. Winter began with a series of arctic air mass surges that culminated in an epic lake-effect snowstorm occurred over western New York before Thanksgiving and was followed by a series of snow and ice storms that disrupted Thanksgiving holiday travel widely. Winter briefly abated in part of December, but returned with a vengeance between mid-January and mid-February 2015 when multiple extreme weather events that featured record-breaking monthly and seasonal snowfalls and record-breaking daily minimum temperatures were observed. This presentation will show how: (1) the recurvature and extratropical transition (ET) of Supertyphoon (STY) Nuri in the western Pacific in early November 2014, and its subsequent explosive reintensification as an extratropical cyclone (EC), disrupted the North Pacific jet stream and downstream Northern Hemisphere (NH) circulation, produced high-latitude ridging and the formation of an omega block over western North America, triggered downstream baroclinic development and the formation of a deep trough over eastern North America, and ushered in winter 2014-2015, (2) the ET/EC of STY Nuri increased subsequent week two predictability over the North Pacific and North America in association with diabatically influenced high-latitude ridge building, and (3) the amplification of the large-scale NH flow pattern beginning in January 2015 resulted in the formation of persistent high-amplitude ridges over northeastern Russia, Alaska, western North America, and the North Atlantic while deep troughs formed over the eastern North Pacific and eastern North America. This persistent amplified flow pattern supported the occurrence of frequent heavy snowstorms, including blizzards, over parts of the northeastern United States and adjacent Atlantic Canada during the latter part of January and much of February 2015.

Nutrient losses from Fall and Winter-applied manure: Effects of timing and soil temperature

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil temperature is a major environmental factor that affects both the infiltration of meltwater and precipitation, and nutrient cycling. The objectives of this study were to determine nutrient losses in runoff and leachate from fall and winter-applied dairy manure based on the soil temperature at t...

Nutrient losses from fall- and winter-applied manure: effects of timing and soil temperature

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil temperature is a major environmental factor that affects meltwater and precipitation infiltration and nutrient cycling. The objective of this study was to determine nutrient losses in runoff and leachate from fall- and winter-applied dairy manure as affected by soil temperature at the time of a...

Observed Decrease of North American Winter Temperature Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rhines, A. N.; Tingley, M.; McKinnon, K. A.; Huybers, P. J.

2015-12-01

There is considerable interest in determining whether temperature variability has changed in recent decades. Model ensembles project that extratropical land temperature variance will detectably decrease by 2070. We use quantile regression of station observations to show that decreasing variability is already robustly detectable for North American winter during 1979--2014. Pointwise trends from GHCND stations are mapped into a continuous spatial field using thin-plate spline regression, resolving small-scales while providing uncertainties accounting for spatial covariance and varying station density. We find that variability of daily temperatures, as measured by the difference between the 95th and 5th percentiles, has decreased markedly in winter for both daily minima and maxima. Composites indicate that the reduced spread of winter temperatures primarily results from Arctic amplification decreasing the meridional temperature gradient. Greater observed warming in the 5th relative to the 95th percentile stems from asymmetric effects of advection during cold versus warm days; cold air advection is generally from northerly regions that have experienced greater warming than western or southwestern regions that are generally sourced during warm days.

Changes in winter air temperatures near Lake Michigan, 1851-1993, as determined from regional lake-ice records

USGS Publications Warehouse

Assel, R.A.; Robertson, Dale M.

1995-01-01

Records of freezeup and breakup dates for Grand Traverse Bay, Michigan, and Lake Mendota, Wisconsin, are among the longest ice records available near the Great Lakes, beginning in 185 1 and 1855, respectively. The timing of freezeup and breakup results from an integration of meteorological conditions (primarily air temperature) that occur before these events. Changes in the average timing of these ice-events are translated into changes in air temperature by the use of empirical and process-driven models. The timing of freezeup and breakup at the two locations represents an integration of air temperatures over slightly different seasons (months). Records from both locations indicate that the early winter period before about 1890 was - 15°C cooler than the early winter period after that time; the mean temperature has, however, remained relatively constant since about 1890. Changes in breakup dates demonstrate a similar 1.0-1 .5”C increase in late winter and early spring air temperatures about 1890. More recent average breakup dates at both locations have been earlier than during 1890-1940, indicating an additional warming of 1.2”C in March since about 1940 and a warming of 1 . 1°C in January-March since about 1980. Ice records at these sites will continue to provide an early indication of the anticipated climatic warming, not only because of the large response of ice cover to small changes in air temperature but also because these records integrate climatic conditions during the seasons (winter-spring) when most warming is forecast to occur. Future reductions in ice cover may strongly affect the winter ecology of the Great Lakes by reducing the stable environment required by various levels of the food chain. 

Recent Climate Changes in Northwestern Qaidam Basin Inferred from Geothermal Gradients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, J.; Zhang, T.

2014-12-01

Temperature perturbations under the ground surface are direct thermal response to ground surface temperature changes. Thus ground surface temperature history can be reconstructed from borehole temperature measurements using borehole paleothermometry inversion method. In this study, we use seven borehole temperature profiles to reconstruct the ground surface temperature variation of the past 500 years of the Qaidam basin, northwestern China. Borehole transient temperature measurement from seven sites in northwestern Qaidam basin were separated from geothermal gradients and analyzed by functional space inversion method to determine past ground surface temperature variations in this region. All temperature profiles show the effects of recent climatic disturbances. Inversion shows an overall increase in ground surface temperature by an averaged 1.2℃ (-0.11~2.21℃) during the last 500 years. Clear signs of a cold period between 1500 and 1900 A.D., corresponding to the Little Ice Age, have been found. Its coldest period was between 1780~1790 A.D. with the ground surface temperature of 5.4℃. During the 19th and the 20th century, reconstructed ground surface temperature shows a rising trend, and in the late 20th century, the temperature started to decrease. However, the highest temperature in 1990s broke the record of the past 500 years. This reconstructed past ground surface temperature variation is verified by the simulated annual surface air temperature computed by EdGCM and the cooling trend is also confirmed by other reconstruction of winter half year minimum temperatures using tree rings on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau.

Assessment of climate change downscaling and non-stationarity on the spatial pattern of a mangrove ecosystem in an arid coastal region of southern Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Etemadi, Halimeh; Samadi, S. Zahra; Sharifikia, Mohammad; Smoak, Joseph M.

2016-10-01

Mangrove wetlands exist in the transition zone between terrestrial and marine environments and have remarkable ecological and socio-economic value. This study uses climate change downscaling to address the question of non-stationarity influences on mangrove variations (expansion and contraction) within an arid coastal region. Our two-step approach includes downscaling models and uncertainty assessment, followed by a non-stationary and trend procedure using the Extreme Value Analysis (extRemes code). The Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) model along with two different general circulation model (GCMs) (MIRH and HadCM3) were used to downscale climatic variables during current (1968-2011) and future (2011-2030, 2045-2065, and 2080-2099) periods. Parametric and non-parametric bootstrapping uncertainty tests demonstrated that the LARS-WGS model skillfully downscaled climatic variables at the 95 % significance level. Downscaling results using MIHR model show that minimum and maximum temperatures will increase in the future (2011-2030, 2045-2065, and 2080-2099) during winter and summer in a range of +4.21 and +4.7 °C, and +3.62 and +3.55 °C, respectively. HadCM3 analysis also revealed an increase in minimum (˜+3.03 °C) and maximum (˜+3.3 °C) temperatures during wet and dry seasons. In addition, we examined how much mangrove area has changed during the past decades and, thus, if climate change non-stationarity impacts mangrove ecosystems. Our results using remote sensing techniques and the non-parametric Mann-Whitney two-sample test indicated a sharp decline in mangrove area during 1972,1987, and 1997 periods ( p value = 0.002). Non-stationary assessment using the generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions by including mangrove area as a covariate further indicated that the null hypothesis of the stationary climate (no trend) should be rejected due to the very low p values for precipitation ( p value = 0.0027), minimum ( p value = 0.000000029) and maximum ( p value = 0.00016) temperatures. Based on non-stationary analysis and an upward trend in downscaled temperature extremes, climate change may control mangrove development in the future.

Brief Report: Investigating Uncertainty in the Minimum Mortality Temperature: Methods and Application to 52 Spanish Cities.

PubMed

Tobías, Aurelio; Armstrong, Ben; Gasparrini, Antonio

2017-01-01

The minimum mortality temperature from J- or U-shaped curves varies across cities with different climates. This variation conveys information on adaptation, but ability to characterize is limited by the absence of a method to describe uncertainty in estimated minimum mortality temperatures. We propose an approximate parametric bootstrap estimator of confidence interval (CI) and standard error (SE) for the minimum mortality temperature from a temperature-mortality shape estimated by splines. The coverage of the estimated CIs was close to nominal value (95%) in the datasets simulated, although SEs were slightly high. Applying the method to 52 Spanish provincial capital cities showed larger minimum mortality temperatures in hotter cities, rising almost exactly at the same rate as annual mean temperature. The method proposed for computing CIs and SEs for minimums from spline curves allows comparing minimum mortality temperatures in different cities and investigating their associations with climate properly, allowing for estimation uncertainty.

Effects of season on sleep and skin temperature in the elderly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okamoto-Mizuno, Kazue; Tsuzuki, Kazuyo

2010-07-01

The effects of season on sleep and skin temperature (Tsk) in 19 healthy, elderly volunteers were investigated. Measurements were obtained in summer, winter, and fall, and activity levels were monitored using a wrist actigraph system for five consecutive days. The temperature and humidity of the bedrooms of the subjects’ homes were measured continuously for five days. During actigraphic measurement, Tsk during sleep was measured for two nights. The bedroom temperature and humidity significantly increased in summer compared to winter and fall. In summer, the total sleep time decreased (mean ± SE min; summer, 350.8 ± 15.7; winter, 426.5 ± 14.2; fall, 403.2 ± 16.4) and wakefulness increased ( P < 0.003) compared to those in fall or winter. The sleep efficiency index that was derived from wrist actigraphy was significantly decreased ( P < 0.001) in summer (81.4 ± 2.9%) compared with winter (91.6 ± 1.3%) or fall (90.2 ± 1.2%). The forehead Tsk significantly increased, while the chest and thigh Tsks were decreased in summer compared to those in fall or winter. These results suggest that, in the elderly, sleep is disturbed in summer more than in other seasons, and that this disturbance is related to fluctuations in Tsk.

Effect of winter cold duration on spring phenology of the orange tip butterfly, Anthocharis cardamines.

PubMed

Stålhandske, Sandra; Lehmann, Philipp; Pruisscher, Peter; Leimar, Olof

2015-12-01

The effect of spring temperature on spring phenology is well understood in a wide range of taxa. However, studies on how winter conditions may affect spring phenology are underrepresented. Previous work on Anthocharis cardamines (orange tip butterfly) has shown population-specific reaction norms of spring development in relation to spring temperature and a speeding up of post-winter development with longer winter durations. In this experiment, we examined the effects of a greater and ecologically relevant range of winter durations on post-winter pupal development of A. cardamines of two populations from the United Kingdom and two from Sweden. By analyzing pupal weight loss and metabolic rate, we were able to separate the overall post-winter pupal development into diapause duration and post-diapause development. We found differences in the duration of cold needed to break diapause among populations, with the southern UK population requiring a shorter duration than the other populations. We also found that the overall post-winter pupal development time, following removal from winter cold, was negatively related to cold duration, through a combined effect of cold duration on diapause duration and on post-diapause development time. Longer cold durations also lead to higher population synchrony in hatching. For current winter durations in the field, the A. cardamines population of southern UK could have a reduced development rate and lower synchrony in emergence because of short winters. With future climate change, this might become an issue also for other populations. Differences in winter conditions in the field among these four populations are large enough to have driven local adaptation of characteristics controlling spring phenology in response to winter duration. The observed phenology of these populations depends on a combination of winter and spring temperatures; thus, both must be taken into account for accurate predictions of phenology.

Variability of Surface pollutants and aerosol concentration over Abu Dhabi, UAE - sources, transport and current levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phanikumar, Devulapalli V.; Basha, Ghouse; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.

2015-04-01

In the view of recent economic, industrial, and rapid development, Abu Dhabi (24.4oN; 54.4oE; 27m msl) has become one of the most populated regions in the world despite of extreme heat, frequent dust storms, and with distinctive topography. The major sources of air pollution are from the dust and sand storms, greenhouse gas emissions, and to some extent from industrial pollution. In order to realize the accurate and comprehensive understanding of air quality and plausible sources over this region, we have made a detailed analysis of three years simultaneous measurements during 2011-13 of pollutants such as O3, SO2, NO2, CO, and PM10 concentrations. Diurnal variation of meteorological parameters such as temperature and wind speed/relative humidity clearly shows daytime maximum/minimum in summer followed by pre-monsoon, post-monsoon and winter. The prevailing winds over this region are mostly from northwesterly direction (Shamal wind). Diurnal wind pattern showed a clear contrast with the majority of the wind pattern during nighttime and early morning is from the westerly/northwesterly and daytime is from southwesterly/southeasterly directions. The diurnal pattern of O3 shows minimum during 08 LT and increases thereafter reaching maximum at 17 LT and decreases during nighttime. However, the diurnal pattern of SO2 and NO2 show a peak at ~ 08 LT and dip at ~ 14 LT during all the seasons with some variability in each season. On the other hand, the diurnal pattern of CO shows a peculiar picture of elevated levels during daytime peaking at ~ 10 LT (prominent in summer and post-monsoon) followed by a sharp decrease and minimum is ~14 LT. PM10 concentration has an early morning peak at ~ 02 LT and then decreases to a minimum value at ~11 LT and again increases in the afternoon hours (maximum at ~17 LT) depicting a forenoon-afternoon asymmetry. Monthly variation of PM10 shows maximum in pre-monsoon season and minimum in winter. Our observations show the diurnal pattern of pollutants are in contrast with the diurnal pattern of wind speed as evident from the previous observations. Wind rose diagram of pollutants reveal that the dominant source directions are scattered from northwesterly to southwesterly. Our results (2011-13) are compared with earlier observations from the same region (2007-08) and no alarming differences were observed in the pollutant levels. Our observations are discussed in the light of current understanding of pollutants sources over this region.

Variations in temperature acclimation effects on glycogen storage, hypoxia tolerance and swimming performance with seasonal acclimatization in juvenile Chinese crucian carp.

PubMed

Yang, Yang; Cao, Zhen-Dong; Fu, Shi-Jian

2015-07-01

The aim of this study was to test whether temperature acclimation (10 vs 20 °C) effects on tissue glycogen content, hypoxia tolerance, and swimming performance of Chinese crucian carp (Carassius auratus) varied with seasonal acclimatization (winter vs spring) and potential combined interactions. Both the routine metabolic rate (MO(2rout)) and critical oxygen tension (P(crit)) of the MO(2rout) increased significantly with temperature, whereas the seasonal acclimatization showed no significant effect. Only the high temperature group that acclimatized in spring showed a significantly higher aquatic surface respiration (ASR(crit)) value compared with the other three groups. Fish in spring tended to show ASR behavior at higher oxygen tension compared with those in winter, which might have been caused by a more active lifestyle. Time to show LOE prolonged by 25-34% under low temperature. Spring fish showed 20% shorter LOE duration at 10 °C, whereas the difference tended to vanish at 20 °C. Glycogen contents in both liver and muscle were higher in winter than spring. The liver and muscle glycogen content decreased by 5-42% after exposure to anoxic conditions, whereas the magnitude was much smaller in spring. When fish swam in normoxic conditions, fish in higher temperatures showed higher critical swimming speed (Ucrit) than low temperature (5.49 vs 3.74 BL s(-1) in winter and 4.27 vs 3.21 BL s(-1) in spring), whereas fish in winter also showed higher U(crit) than fish in spring for each temperature. However, when fish swam in hypoxic waters, fish in higher temperatures showed a more profound decrease (52-61%) in U(crit) compared to those in lower temperature (25-27%). Fish in lower temperatures that had acclimatized in winter showed the highest U(crit), which might have been caused by higher glycogen storage. The present study suggested that both glycogen storage and alterations in lifestyle had profound effects on hypoxia tolerance and swimming performance, which resulted in a profound difference between seasons and acclimation temperatures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bennett, Katrina E.; Cannon, Alex J.; Hinzman, Larry

Climate change will shift the frequency, intensity, duration and persistence of extreme hydroclimate events and have particularly disastrous consequences in vulnerable systems such as the warm permafrost-dominated Interior region of boreal Alaska. This work focuses on recent research results from nonparametric trends and nonstationary generalized extreme value (GEV) analyses at eight Interior Alaskan river basins for the past 50/60 years (1954/64–2013). Trends analysis of maximum and minimum streamflow indicates a strong (>+50%) and statistically significant increase in 11-day flow events during the late fall/winter and during the snowmelt period (late April/mid-May), followed by a significant decrease in the 11-day flowmore » events during the post-snowmelt period (late May and into the summer). The April–May–June seasonal trends show significant decreases in maximum streamflow for snowmelt dominated systems (<–50%) and glacially influenced basins (–24% to –33%). Annual maximum streamflow trends indicate that most systems are experiencing declines, while minimum flow trends are largely increasing. Nonstationary GEV analysis identifies time-dependent changes in the distribution of spring extremes for snowmelt dominated and glacially dominated systems. Temperature in spring influences the glacial and high elevation snowmelt systems and winter precipitation drives changes in the snowmelt dominated basins. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation was associated with changes occurring in snowmelt dominated systems, and the Arctic Oscillation was linked to one lake dominated basin, with half of the basins exhibiting no change in response to climate variability. The paper indicates that broad scale studies examining trend and direction of change should employ multiple methods across various scales and consider regime dependent shifts to identify and understand changes in extreme streamflow within boreal forested watersheds of Alaska.« less

Historical trends and extremes in boreal Alaska river basins

DOE PAGES

Bennett, Katrina E.; Cannon, Alex J.; Hinzman, Larry

2015-05-12

Climate change will shift the frequency, intensity, duration and persistence of extreme hydroclimate events and have particularly disastrous consequences in vulnerable systems such as the warm permafrost-dominated Interior region of boreal Alaska. This work focuses on recent research results from nonparametric trends and nonstationary generalized extreme value (GEV) analyses at eight Interior Alaskan river basins for the past 50/60 years (1954/64–2013). Trends analysis of maximum and minimum streamflow indicates a strong (>+50%) and statistically significant increase in 11-day flow events during the late fall/winter and during the snowmelt period (late April/mid-May), followed by a significant decrease in the 11-day flowmore » events during the post-snowmelt period (late May and into the summer). The April–May–June seasonal trends show significant decreases in maximum streamflow for snowmelt dominated systems (<–50%) and glacially influenced basins (–24% to –33%). Annual maximum streamflow trends indicate that most systems are experiencing declines, while minimum flow trends are largely increasing. Nonstationary GEV analysis identifies time-dependent changes in the distribution of spring extremes for snowmelt dominated and glacially dominated systems. Temperature in spring influences the glacial and high elevation snowmelt systems and winter precipitation drives changes in the snowmelt dominated basins. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation was associated with changes occurring in snowmelt dominated systems, and the Arctic Oscillation was linked to one lake dominated basin, with half of the basins exhibiting no change in response to climate variability. The paper indicates that broad scale studies examining trend and direction of change should employ multiple methods across various scales and consider regime dependent shifts to identify and understand changes in extreme streamflow within boreal forested watersheds of Alaska.« less

Tropospheric temperature climatology and trends observed over the Middle East

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basha, Ghouse; Marpu, P. R.; Ouarda, T. B. M. J.

2015-10-01

In this study, we report for the first time, the upper air temperature climatology, and trends over the Middle East, which seem to be significantly affected by the changes associated with hot summer and low precipitation. Long term (1985-2012) radiosonde data from 12 stations are used to derive the mean temperature climatology and vertical trends. The study was performed by analyzing the data at different latitudes. The vertical profiles of air temperature show distinct behavior in terms of vertical and seasonal variability at different latitudes. The seasonal cycle of temperature at the 100 hPa, however, shows an opposite pattern compared to the 200 hPa levels. The temperature at 100 hPa shows a maximum during winter and minimum in summer. Spectral analysis shows that the annual cycle is dominant in comparison with the semiannual cycle. The time-series of temperature data was analyzed using the Bayesian change point analysis and cumulative sum method to investigate the changes in temperature trends. Temperature shows a clear change point during the year 1999 at all stations. Further, Modified Mann-Kendall test was applied to study the vertical trend, and analysis shows statistically significant lower tropospheric warming and cooling in upper troposphere after the year 1999. In general, the magnitude of the trend decreases with altitude in the troposphere. In all the latitude bands in lower troposphere, significant warming is observed, whereas at higher altitudes cooling is noticed based on 28 years temperature observations over the Middle East.

Lowering Temperature is the Trigger for Glycogen Build-Up and Winter Fasting in Crucian Carp (Carassius carassius).

PubMed

Varis, Joonas; Haverinen, Jaakko; Vornanen, Matti

2016-02-01

Seasonal changes in physiology of vertebrate animals are triggered by environmental cues including temperature, day-length and oxygen availability. Crucian carp (Carassius carassius) tolerate prolonged anoxia in winter by using several physiological adaptations that are seasonally activated. This study examines which environmental cues are required to trigger physiological adjustments for winter dormancy in crucian carp. To this end, crucian carp were exposed to changing environmental factors under laboratory conditions: effects of declining water temperature, shortening day-length and reduced oxygen availability, separately and in different combinations, were examined on glycogen content and enzyme activities involved in feeding (alkaline phosphatase, AP) and glycogen metabolism (glycogen synthase, GyS; glycogen phosphorylase, GP). Lowering temperature induced a fall in activity of AP and a rise in glycogen content and rate of glycogen synthesis. Relative mass of the liver, and glycogen concentration of liver, muscle and brain increased with lowering temperature. Similarly activity of GyS in muscle and expression of GyS transcripts in brain were up-regulated by lowering temperature. Shortened day-length and oxygen availability had practically no effects on measured variables. We conclude that lowering temperature is the main trigger in preparation for winter anoxia in crucian carp.

Winter chilling speeds spring development of temperate butterflies.

PubMed

Stålhandske, Sandra; Gotthard, Karl; Leimar, Olof

2017-07-01

Understanding and predicting phenology has become more important with ongoing climate change and has brought about great research efforts in the recent decades. The majority of studies examining spring phenology of insects have focussed on the effects of spring temperatures alone. Here we use citizen-collected observation data to show that winter cold duration, in addition to spring temperature, can affect the spring emergence of butterflies. Using spatial mixed models, we disentangle the effects of climate variables and reveal impacts of both spring and winter conditions for five butterfly species that overwinter as pupae across the UK, with data from 1976 to 2013 and one butterfly species in Sweden, with data from 2001 to 2013. Warmer springs lead to earlier emergence in all species and milder winters lead to statistically significant delays in three of the five investigated species. We also find that the delaying effect of winter warmth has become more pronounced in the last decade, during which time winter durations have become shorter. For one of the studied species, Anthocharis cardamines (orange tip butterfly), we also make use of parameters determined from previous experiments on pupal development to model the spring phenology. Using daily temperatures in the UK and Sweden, we show that recent variation in spring temperature corresponds to 10-15 day changes in emergence time over UK and Sweden, whereas variation in winter duration corresponds to 20 days variation in the south of the UK versus only 3 days in the south of Sweden. In summary, we show that short winters delay phenology. The effect is most prominent in areas with particularly mild winters, emphasising the importance of winter for the response of ectothermic animals to climate change. With climate change, these effects may become even stronger and apply also at higher latitudes. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Effect of summer heat environment on body temperature, estrous cycles and blood antioxidant levels in Japanese Black cow.

PubMed

Sakatani, Miki; Balboula, Ahmed Z; Yamanaka, Kenichi; Takahashi, Masashi

2012-05-01

This study investigated the effect of summer heat environment on estrous cycles and blood antioxidant levels in Japanese Black cows. A total of 13 non-lactating Japanese Black cows (summer: 9, winter: 4) were examined. Body temperature was measured rectally and intravaginally using a thermometer and data logger, respectively. Estrous behavior was monitored using a radiotelemetric pedometer that recorded walking activity. Rectal temperatures were higher during summer than winter (P<0.001). There was an acute increase in vaginal temperature at the onset of estrus during winter but such an increase was not observed during summer. Walking activity during estrus decreased dramatically in the summer compared to the winter. Duration of estrous cycle was longer in summer (23.4 days, P<0.05) than winter (21.5 days), and the subsequent rise in progesterone concentrations following estrus tended to be delayed in summer. The level of thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS) in peripheral blood cells was higher during summer (P<0.05), while the levels of superoixde dismutase (SOD), glutathione peroxidase (GPx) and glutathione were lower (P<0.05). These results indicate that high ambient temperature during summer increases both body temperature and oxidative stress, and also reduces signs of estrus in Japanese Black cows. © 2011 The Authors. Animal Science Journal © 2011 Japanese Society of Animal Science.

Analysis and Comparison of the Temperature and Snowfall Conditions for the Winters of 2014/15 and 2015/16 at Three Ski Resorts in British Columbia, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pidwirny, M. J.; Pedersen, S.

2016-12-01

Most ski resorts located close to the west coast of Canada experienced extremely poor weather conditions during the winter of 2014/15. During this year, a persistent area of high pressure created "the Blob" in the North Pacific Ocean, which influenced weather patterns on the west coast of North America producing very mild temperatures inland. Further, for many ski resorts winter precipitation that normally arrives in the form of snow, instead fell as rain on many occasions. In Western Canada, ski resorts saw an 18% decrease in skier visits in 2014/15 relative to the average of the previous 8 years. NOAA forecasts for the winter of 2015/16 suggested another mild winter because of a strong El Nino event. Despite this forecast, ski resorts in Western Canada experienced a very good ski season. This research examines the climate characteristics of the winters of 2014/15 and 2015/16 in detail for three ski resorts in British Columbia, Canada: Whistler-Blackcomb, Cypress Mountain, and Big White. The climatic characteristics of these 2 years were also compared to the winter of 2012/13, the most recent banner ski year in the last decade. Data for this study came from Snow-Forecast.com, a web-based company that creates tailor-made weather forecasts for ski resorts around the world using climate model output from NOAA. From Snow-Forecast.com, we mined archived hindcast data that was available at the daily level to analyze and compare mean air temperature and snowfall patterns from November 1 to March 31. Daily temperature data was plotted in a line graph for each year. To better clarify trends, we also graphed an 11-year running mean for the temperature data. Snowfall data was plotted in a cumulative line graph. The winter of 2014/15 was on average warmer by 3.9°C for Cypress, 5.4°C for Whistler, and 4.4°C for Big White than the winter of 2012/13. The winter of 2015/16 was on average 2.5°C, 3.6°C, and 3.6°C warmer than the winter of 2012/13, respectively. Snowfall accumulations decreased by about 79% for Cypress, 57% for Whistler, and 9% for Big White in 2014/15 when compared to 2012/13. In contrast, the winter of 2015/16 saw snowfall increases of 10% for Cypress, 35% for Whistler, and 97% for Big White relative to 2012/13. Together, the colder temperatures and higher snowfall produced better than expected ski conditions in 2015/16.

Reproductive arrest and stress resistance in winter-acclimated Drosophila suzukii.

PubMed

Toxopeus, Jantina; Jakobs, Ruth; Ferguson, Laura V; Gariepy, Tara D; Sinclair, Brent J

2016-06-01

Overwintering insects must survive the multiple-stress environment of winter, which includes low temperatures, reduced food and water availability, and cold-active pathogens. Many insects overwinter in diapause, a developmental arrest associated with high stress tolerance. Drosophila suzukii (Diptera: Drosophilidae), spotted wing drosophila, is an invasive agricultural pest worldwide. Its ability to overwinter and therefore establish in temperate regions could have severe implications for fruit crop industries. We demonstrate here that laboratory populations of Canadian D. suzukii larvae reared under short-day, low temperature, conditions develop into dark 'winter morph' adults similar to those reported globally from field captures, and observed by us in southern Ontario, Canada. These winter-acclimated adults have delayed reproductive maturity, enhanced cold tolerance, and can remain active at low temperatures, although they do not have the increased desiccation tolerance or survival of fungal pathogen challenges that might be expected from a more heavily melanised cuticle. Winter-acclimated female D. suzukii have underdeveloped ovaries and altered transcript levels of several genes associated with reproduction and stress. While superficially indicative of reproductive diapause, the delayed reproductive maturity of winter-acclimated D. suzukii appears to be temperature-dependent, not regulated by photoperiod, and is thus unlikely to be 'true' diapause. The traits of this 'winter morph', however, likely facilitate overwintering in southern Canada, and have probably contributed to the global success of this fly as an invasive species. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Chemical composition and antifungal activity of the essential oils of Schinus weinmannifolius collected in the spring and winter.

PubMed

Hernandes, Camila; Taleb-Contini, Silvia H; Bartolomeu, Ana Carolina D; Bertoni, Bianca W; França, Suzelei C; Pereira, Ana Maria S

2014-09-01

Reports on the chemical and pharmacological profile of the essential oil of Schinus weinmannifolius do not exist, although other Schinus species have been widely investigated for their biological activities. This work aimed to evaluate the chemical composition and antimicrobial activity of the essential oil of S. weinmannifolius collected in the spring and winter. The essential oils were extracted by hydrodistillation, analyzed by GC/MS and submitted to microdilution tests, to determine the minimum inhibitory concentration. The oils displayed different chemical composition and antimicrobial action. Bicyclogermacrene and limonene predominated in the oils extracted in the winter and spring, respectively, whereas only the latter oil exhibited antifungal activity.

Use of Pavement Temperature Measurements for Winter Maintenance Decisions

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1988-01-01

Formation of ice and frost on roadways and bridges presents a significant potential impediment to safe winter travel in Iowa. Roadway surface temperatures are not measured routinely by the National Weather Service and are not part of public forecasts...

Use of pavement temperature measurements for winter maintenance decisions

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-01-01

Formation of ice and frost on roadways and bridges presents a significant potential impediment to safe winter travel in Iowa. Roadway surface temperatures are not measured routinely by the National Weather Service and are not part of public forecasts...

Use of Pavement Temperature Measurements for Winter Maintenance Decisions

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-01-01

Formation of ice and frost on roadways and bridges presents a significant potential impediment to safe winter travel in Iowa. Roadway surface temperatures are not measured routinely by the National Weather Service and are not part of public forecasts...

Long-term variability in Northern Hemisphere snow cover and associations with warmer winters

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, Gregory J.; Wolock, David M.

2010-01-01

A monthly snow accumulation and melt model is used with gridded monthly temperature and precipitation data for the Northern Hemisphere to generate time series of March snow-covered area (SCA) for the period 1905 through 2002. The time series of estimated SCA for March is verified by comparison with previously published time series of SCA for the Northern Hemisphere. The time series of estimated Northern Hemisphere March SCA shows a substantial decrease since about 1970, and this decrease corresponds to an increase in mean winter Northern Hemisphere temperature. The increase in winter temperature has caused a decrease in the fraction of precipitation that occurs as snow and an increase in snowmelt for some parts of the Northern Hemisphere, particularly the mid-latitudes, thus reducing snow packs and March SCA. In addition, the increase in winter temperature and the decreases in SCA appear to be associated with a contraction of the circumpolar vortex and a poleward movement of storm tracks, resulting in decreased precipitation (and snow) in the low- to mid-latitudes and an increase in precipitation (and snow) in high latitudes. If Northern Hemisphere winter temperatures continue to warm as they have since the 1970s, then March SCA will likely continue to decrease.

Long-term variability in Northern Hemisphere snow cover and associations with warmer winters

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Wolock, D.M.

2010-01-01

A monthly snow accumulation and melt model is used with gridded monthly temperature and precipitation data for the Northern Hemisphere to generate time series of March snow-covered area (SCA) for the period 1905 through 2002. The time series of estimated SCA for March is verified by comparison with previously published time series of SCA for the Northern Hemisphere. The time series of estimated Northern Hemisphere March SCA shows a substantial decrease since about 1970, and this decrease corresponds to an increase in mean winter Northern Hemisphere temperature. The increase in winter temperature has caused a decrease in the fraction of precipitation that occurs as snow and an increase in snowmelt for some parts of the Northern Hemisphere, particularly the mid-latitudes, thus reducing snow packs and March SCA. In addition, the increase in winter temperature and the decreases in SCA appear to be associated with a contraction of the circumpolar vortex and a poleward movement of storm tracks, resulting in decreased precipitation (and snow) in the low- to mid-latitudes and an increase in precipitation (and snow) in high latitudes. If Northern Hemisphere winter temperatures continue to warm as they have since the 1970s, then March SCA will likely continue to decrease. ?? 2009 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Freezing pattern and frost killing temperature of apple (Malus domestica) wood under controlled conditions and in nature.

PubMed

Pramsohler, Manuel; Hacker, Jürgen; Neuner, Gilbert

2012-07-01

The freezing pattern and frost killing temperatures of apple (Malus domestica Borkh.) xylem were determined by differential thermal analysis and infrared differential thermal analysis (IDTA). Results from detached or attached twigs in controlled freezing experiments and during natural field freezing of trees were compared. Non-lethal freezing of apoplastic water in apple xylem as monitored during natural winter frosts in the field occurred at -1.9 ± 0.4 °C and did not change seasonally. The pattern of whole tree freezing was variable and specific to the environmental conditions. On detached twigs high-temperature freezing exotherms (HTEs) occurred 2.8 K below the temperature observed under natural frosts in the field with a seasonal mean of -4.7 ± 0.5 °C. Microporous apple xylem showed freezing without a specific pattern within a few seconds in IDTA images during HTEs, which is in contrast to macroporous xylem where a 2D freezing pattern mirrors anatomical structures. The pith tissue always remained unfrozen. Increasing twig length increased ice nucleation temperature; for increased twig diameter the effect was not significant. In attached twigs frozen in field portable freezing chambers, HTEs were recorded at a similar mean temperature (-4.6 ± 1.0 °C) to those for detached twigs. Upon lethal intracellular freezing of apple xylem parenchyma cells (XPCs) low-temperature freezing exotherms (LTEs) can be recorded. Low-temperature freezing exotherms determined on detached twigs varied significantly between a winter minimum of -36.9 °C and a summer maximum -12.7 °C. Within the temperature range wherein LTEs were recorded by IDTA in summer (-12.7 ± 0.5 to -20.3 ± 1.1 °C) various tiny clearly separated discontinuous freezing events could be detected similar to that in other species with contrasting XPC anatomy. These freezing events appeared to be initially located in the primary and only later in the secondary xylem. During the LTE no freezing events in the bark and central pith tissue were recorded. Attached twigs were exposed to various freezing temperatures at which LTEs occur. Even if 60% of XPCs were frost-damaged twigs were able to recuperate and showed full re-growth indicating a high regeneration capacity even after severe frost damage to XPCs.

Airborne particulate in Varanasi over middle Indo-Gangetic Plain: variation in particulate types and meteorological influences.

PubMed

Murari, Vishnu; Kumar, Manish; Mhawish, Alaa; Barman, S C; Banerjee, Tirthankar

2017-04-01

The variation in particulate mass and particulate types (PM 2.5 and PM 10 ) with respect to local/regional meteorology was analyzed from January to December 2014 (n = 104) for an urban location over the middle Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP). Both coarser (mean ± SD; PM 10 161.3 ± 110.4 μg m -3 , n = 104) and finer particulates (PM 2.5 81.78 ± 66.4 μg m -3 ) revealed enormous mass loading with distinct seasonal effects (range: PM 10 12-535 μg m -3 ; PM 2.5 8-362 μg m -3 ). Further, 56% (for PM 2.5 ) to 81% (for PM 10 ) of monitoring events revealed non-attainment national air quality standard especially during winter months. Particulate types (in terms of PM 2.5 /PM 10 0.49 ± 0.19) also exhibited temporal variations with high PM 2.5 loading particularly during winter (0.62) compared to summer months (0.38). Local meteorology has clear distinguishing trends in terms of dry summer (March to June), wet winter (December to February), and monsoon (July to September). Among all the meteorological variables (average temperature, rainfall, relative humidity (RH), wind speed (WS)), temperature was found to be inversely related with particulate loading (r PM10 -0.79; r PM2.5 -0.87) while RH only resulted a significant association with PM 2.5 during summer (r PM10 0.07; r PM2.5 0.55) and with PM 10 during winter (r PM10 0.53; r PM2.5 0.24). Temperature, atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), and RH were cumulatively recognized as the dominant factors regulating particulate concentration as days with high particulate loading (PM 2.5 >150 μg m -3 ; PM 10 >260 μg m -3 ) appeared to have lower ABL (mean 660 m), minimum temperature (<22.6 °C), and high RH (∼79%). The diurnal variations of particulate ratio were mostly insignificant except minor increases during night having a high wintertime ratio (0.58 ± 0.07) over monsoon (0.34 ± 0.05) and summer (0.30 ± 0.07). Across the region, atmospheric visibility appeared to be inversely associated with particulate (r PM2.5 -0.84; r PM10 -0.79) for all humid conditions, while at RH ≥80%, RH appeared as the most dominant factor in regulating visibility compared to particulate loading. The Lagrangian particle dispersion model was further used to identify possible regions contributing particulate loading through regional/transboundary movement.

Statistical physics when the minimum temperature is not absolute zero

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chung, Won Sang; Hassanabadi, Hassan

2018-04-01

In this paper, the nonzero minimum temperature is considered based on the third law of thermodynamics and existence of the minimal momentum. From the assumption of nonzero positive minimum temperature in nature, we deform the definitions of some thermodynamical quantities and investigate nonzero minimum temperature correction to the well-known thermodynamical problems.

Indoor Thermal Factors and Symptoms in Office Workers: Findings from the U.S. EPA BASE Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mendell, Mark; Mirer, Anna

2008-06-01

Some prior research in office buildings has associated higher indoor temperatures even within the recommended thermal comfort range with increased worker symptoms. We reexamined this relationship in data from 95 office buildings in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Building Assessment Survey and Evaluation (BASE) Study. We investigated relationships between building-related symptoms and thermal metrics constructed from real-time measurements. We estimated odds ratios (ORs) and 95percent confidence intervals in adjusted logistic regression models with general estimating equations, overall and by season. Winter indoor temperatures spanned the recommended winter comfort range; summer temperatures were mostly colder than the recommended summer range. Increasingmore » indoor temperatures, overall, were associated with increases in few symptoms. Higher winter indoor temperatures, however, were associated with increases in all symptoms analyzed. Higher summer temperatures, above 23oC, were associated with decreases in most symptoms. Humidity ratio, a metric of absolute humidity, showed few clear associations. Thus, increased symptoms with higher temperatures within the thermal comfort range were found only in winter. In summer, buildings were overcooled, and only the higher observed temperatures were within the comfort range; these were associated with decreased symptoms. Confirmation of these findings would suggest that thermal management guidelines consider health effects as well as comfort.« less

Predicting top-of-atmosphere radiance for arbitrary viewing geometries from the visible to thermal infrared: generalization to arbitrary average scene temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Florio, Christopher J.; Cota, Steve A.; Gaffney, Stephanie K.

2010-08-01

In a companion paper presented at this conference we described how The Aerospace Corporation's Parameterized Image Chain Analysis & Simulation SOftware (PICASSO) may be used in conjunction with a limited number of runs of AFRL's MODTRAN4 radiative transfer code, to quickly predict the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiance received in the visible through midwave IR (MWIR) by an earth viewing sensor, for any arbitrary combination of solar and sensor elevation angles. The method is particularly useful for large-scale scene simulations where each pixel could have a unique value of reflectance/emissivity and temperature, making the run-time required for direct prediction via MODTRAN4 prohibitive. In order to be self-consistent, the method described requires an atmospheric model (defined, at a minimum, as a set of vertical temperature, pressure and water vapor profiles) that is consistent with the average scene temperature. MODTRAN4 provides only six model atmospheres, ranging from sub-arctic winter to tropical conditions - too few to cover with sufficient temperature resolution the full range of average scene temperatures that might be of interest. Model atmospheres consistent with intermediate temperature values can be difficult to come by, and in any event, their use would be too cumbersome for use in trade studies involving a large number of average scene temperatures. In this paper we describe and assess a method for predicting TOA radiance for any arbitrary average scene temperature, starting from only a limited number of model atmospheres.

The neotropical shrub Lupinus elegans, fromtemperate forests, may not adapt to climate change.

PubMed

Soto-Correa, J C; Sáenz-Romero, C; Lindig-Cisneros, R; de la Barrera, E

2013-05-01

Considering that their distribution is limited to altitudinal gradients along mountains that are likely to become warmer and drier, climate change poses an increased threat to temperate forest species from tropical regions. We studied whether the understorey shrub Lupinus elegans, endemic to temperate forests of west-central Mexico, will be able to withstand the projected temperature increase under seven climate change scenarios. Seeds were collected along an altitudinal gradient and grown in a shade-house over 7 months before determining their temperature tolerance as electrolyte leakage. The plants from colder sites tolerated lower temperatures, i.e. the temperature at which half of the maximum electrolyte leakage occurred (LT50), ranged from −6.4 ± 0.7 to −2.4 ± 0.3 °C. In contrast, no pattern was found for tolerance to high temperature (LT50 average 42.8 ± 0.3 °C). The climate change scenarios considered here consistently estimated an increase in air temperature during the present century that was higher for the maximum air temperature than for the mean or minimum. In particular, the anomaly from the normal maximum air temperature at the study region ranged from 2.8 °C by 2030 to 5.8 °C by 2090. In this respect, the inability of L. elegans to adapt to increasingly higher temperatures found here, in addition to a possible inhibition of reproduction caused by warmer winters, may limit its future distribution.

Antarctic Sea ice variations and seasonal air temperature relationships

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weatherly, John W.; Walsh, John E.; Zwally, H. J.

1991-01-01

Data through 1987 are used to determine the regional and seasonal dependencies of recent trends of Antarctic temperature and sea ice. Lead-lag relationships involving regional sea ice and air temperature are systematically evaluated, with an eye toward the ice-temperature feedbacks that may influence climatic change. Over the 1958-1087 period the temperature trends are positive in all seasons. For the 15 years (l973-l987) for which ice data are available, the trends are predominantly positive only in winter and summer, and are most strongly positive over the Antarctic Peninsula. The spatially aggregated trend of temperature for this latter period is small but positive, while the corresponding trend of ice coverage is small but negative. Lag correlations between seasonal anomalies of the two variables are generally stronger with ice lagging the summer temperatures and with ice leading the winter temperatures. The implication is that summer temperatures predispose the near-surface waters to above-or below-normal ice coverage in the following fall and winter.

Characteristics of carbonaceous particles in Beijing during winter and summer 2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, J. H.; Chen, T.; Guinot, B.; Cachier, H.; Yu, T.; Liu, W. Q.; Wang, X.

2006-05-01

Campaigns were conducted to measure Organic Carbon (OC) and Elemental Carbon (EC) in PM2.5 during winter and summer 2003 in Beijing. Modest differences of PM2.5 and PM10 mean concentrations were observed between the winter and summer campaigns. The mean PM2.5/PM10 ratio in both seasons was around 60%, indicating PM2.5 contributed significantly to PM10. The mean concentrations of OC and EC in PM2.5 were 11.2+/-7.5 and 6.0+/-5.0 mu g m(-3) for the winter campaign, and 9.4+/-2.1 and 4.3+/-3.0 mu g m(-3) for the summer campaign, respectively. Diurnal concentrations of OC and EC in PM2.5 were found high at night and low during the daytime in winter, and characterized by an obvious minimum in the summer afternoon. The mean OC/EC ratio was 1.87+/-0.09 for winter and 2.39+/-0.49 for summer. The higher OC/EC ratio in summer indicates some formation of Secondary Organic Carbon (SOC). The estimated SOC was 2.8 mu g m(-3) for winter and 4.2 mu g m(-3) for summer.

Warmer winters modulate life history and energy storage but do not affect sensitivity to a widespread pesticide in an aquatic insect.

PubMed

Arambourou, Hélène; Stoks, Robby

2015-10-01

Despite the increased attention for the effects of pesticides under global warming no studies tested how winter warming affects subsequent sensitivity to pesticides. Winter warming is expected to cause delayed negative effects when it increases metabolic rates and thereby depletes energy reserves. Using a common-garden experiment, we investigated the combined effect of a 4 °C increase in winter temperature and subsequent exposure to chlorpyrifos in the aquatic larvae of replicated low- and high-latitude European populations of the damselfly Ischnura elegans. The warmer winter (8 °C) resulted in a higher winter survival and higher growth rates compared to the cold winter (4 °C) commonly experienced by European high-latitude populations. Low-latitude populations were better at coping with the warmer winter, indicating thermal adaptation to the local winter temperatures. Subsequent chlorpyrifos exposure at 20 °C induced strong negative effects on survival, growth rate, lipid content and acetylcholinesterase activity while phenoloxidase activity increased. These pesticide effects were not affected by winter warming. Our results suggest that for species where winter warming has positive effects on life history, no delayed effects on the sensitivity to subsequent pesticide exposure should be expected. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Deficit irrigation strategies and wine grape cold hardiness

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Winter survival of winegrapes grown at northern latitudes depends upon the ability of dormant tissue to withstand low temperature exposure and acclimate to winter temperature fluctuations. Deficit irrigation is used extensively in arid wine grape production regions to manage growth for improved grap...

Climate Variability and Impact at NASA's Marshal Space Flight Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smoot, James L.; Jedlovec, Gary; Williams, Brett

2013-01-01

Climate analysis for the Southeast U. S. has indicated that inland regions have experienced an average temperature increase of 2F since 1970. This trend is generally characterized by warmer winters with an indication of increased precipitation in the Fall season. Extended periods of limited rainfall in the Spring and Summer periods have had greater areal coverage and, at other times the number of precipitation events has been increasing. Climate model projections for the next 10-70 years indicate warmer temperatures for the Southeast U.S., particularly in the Spring and Summer, with some indication of more extremes in temperature and precipitation as shown in the table below. The realization of these types of regional climate changes in the form of extended heat waves and droughts and their subsequent stress on facilities, infrastructure, and workforce could have substantial impact on the activities and functions of NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in Huntsville, Alabama. This presentation will present the results of an examination of the 100 year temperature and precipitation record for MSFC. Local warming has cause an increase in daily maximum and minimum temperatures by nearly 3F, with a substantial increase in the number of maximum temperatures exceeding 90F and a decrease in the number of days with minimum temperatures below freezing. These trends have substantial impact of the number of heating / cooling degree days for the area. Yearly precipitation totals are inversely correlated with the change in mean temperature and the frequency of heavy rain events has remain consistent with the changes in yearly totals. An extended heat wave index was developed which shows an increase in frequency of heat waves over the last 35 years and a subsequent reduction in precipitation during the heat waves. This trend will contribute to more intense drought conditions over the northern Alabama region, increasing the potential of destructive wildfires in and around the Center. MSFC has begun using this climate change information to adapt short-term and long-term plans for Center operations.

Impacts of Model Bias on the Climate Change Signal and Effects of Weighted Ensembles of Regional Climate Model Simulations: A Case Study over Southern Québec, Canada

DOE PAGES

Eum, Hyung-Il; Gachon, Philippe; Laprise, René

2016-01-01

This study examined the impact of model biases on climate change signals for daily precipitation and for minimum and maximum temperatures. Through the use of multiple climate scenarios from 12 regional climate model simulations, the ensemble mean, and three synthetic simulations generated by a weighting procedure, we investigated intermodel seasonal climate change signals between current and future periods, for both median and extreme precipitation/temperature values. A significant dependence of seasonal climate change signals on the model biases over southern Québec in Canada was detected for temperatures, but not for precipitation. This suggests that the regional temperature change signal is affectedmore » by local processes. Seasonally, model bias affects future mean and extreme values in winter and summer. In addition, potentially large increases in future extremes of temperature and precipitation values were projected. For three synthetic scenarios, systematically less bias and a narrow range of mean change for all variables were projected compared to those of climate model simulations. In addition, synthetic scenarios were found to better capture the spatial variability of extreme cold temperatures than the ensemble mean scenario. Finally, these results indicate that the synthetic scenarios have greater potential to reduce the uncertainty of future climate projections and capture the spatial variability of extreme climate events.« less

Impacts of Model Bias on the Climate Change Signal and Effects of Weighted Ensembles of Regional Climate Model Simulations: A Case Study over Southern Québec, Canada

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eum, Hyung-Il; Gachon, Philippe; Laprise, René

This study examined the impact of model biases on climate change signals for daily precipitation and for minimum and maximum temperatures. Through the use of multiple climate scenarios from 12 regional climate model simulations, the ensemble mean, and three synthetic simulations generated by a weighting procedure, we investigated intermodel seasonal climate change signals between current and future periods, for both median and extreme precipitation/temperature values. A significant dependence of seasonal climate change signals on the model biases over southern Québec in Canada was detected for temperatures, but not for precipitation. This suggests that the regional temperature change signal is affectedmore » by local processes. Seasonally, model bias affects future mean and extreme values in winter and summer. In addition, potentially large increases in future extremes of temperature and precipitation values were projected. For three synthetic scenarios, systematically less bias and a narrow range of mean change for all variables were projected compared to those of climate model simulations. In addition, synthetic scenarios were found to better capture the spatial variability of extreme cold temperatures than the ensemble mean scenario. Finally, these results indicate that the synthetic scenarios have greater potential to reduce the uncertainty of future climate projections and capture the spatial variability of extreme climate events.« less

Mesospheric temperatures estimated from the meteor radar observations at Mohe, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Libo; Liu, Huixin; Le, Huijun; Chen, Yiding; Sun, Yang-Yi; Ning, Baiqi; Hu, Lianhuan; Wan, Weixing; Li, Na; Xiong, Jiangang

2017-02-01

In this work, we report the estimation of mesospheric temperatures at 90 km height from the observations of the VHF all-sky meteor radar operated at Mohe (53.5°N, 122.3°E), China, since August 2011. The kinetic temperature profiles retrieved from the observations of Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) on board the Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere, Energetics, and Dynamics satellite are processed to provide the temperature (TSABER) and temperature gradient (dT/dh) at 90 km height. Based on the SABER temperature profile data an empirical dT/dh model is developed for the Mohe latitude. First, we derive the temperatures from the meteor decay times (Tmeteor) and the Mohe dT/dh model gives prior information of temperature gradients. Second, the full width at half maximum (FWHM) of the meteor height profiles is calculated and further used to deduce the temperatures (TFWHM) based on the strong linear relationship between FWHM and TSABER. The temperatures at 90 km deduced from the decay times (Tmeteor) and from the meteor height distributions (TFWHM) at Mohe are validated/calibrated with TSABER. The temperatures present a considerable annual variation, being maximum in winter and minimum in summer. Harmonic analyses reveal that the temperatures have an annual variation consistent with TSABER. Our work suggests that FWHM has a good performance in routine estimation of the temperatures. It should be pointed out that the slope of FWHM as a function of TSABER is 10.1 at Mohe, which is different from that of 15.71 at King Sejong (62.2°S, 58.8°E) station.

Detectability of change in winter precipitation within mountain landscapes: Spatial patterns and uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silverman, N. L.; Maneta, M. P.

2016-06-01

Detecting long-term change in seasonal precipitation using ground observations is dependent on the representativity of the point measurement to the surrounding landscape. In mountainous regions, representativity can be poor and lead to large uncertainties in precipitation estimates at high elevations or in areas where observations are sparse. If the uncertainty in the estimate is large compared to the long-term shifts in precipitation, then the change will likely go undetected. In this analysis, we examine the minimum detectable change across mountainous terrain in western Montana, USA. We ask the question: What is the minimum amount of change that is necessary to be detected using our best estimates of precipitation in complex terrain? We evaluate the spatial uncertainty in the precipitation estimates by conditioning historic regional climate model simulations to ground observations using Bayesian inference. By using this uncertainty as a null hypothesis, we test for detectability across the study region. To provide context for the detectability calculations, we look at a range of future scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble downscaled to 4 km resolution using the MACAv2-METDATA data set. When using the ensemble averages we find that approximately 65% of the significant increases in winter precipitation go undetected at midelevations. At high elevation, approximately 75% of significant increases in winter precipitation are undetectable. Areas where change can be detected are largely controlled by topographic features. Elevation and aspect are key characteristics that determine whether or not changes in winter precipitation can be detected. Furthermore, we find that undetected increases in winter precipitation at high elevation will likely remain as snow under climate change scenarios. Therefore, there is potential for these areas to offset snowpack loss at lower elevations and confound the effects of climate change on water resources.

Comparison of the Impact of the Arctic Oscillation and East Atlantic - West Russia Teleconnection on Interannual Variation in East Asian Winter Temperatures and Monsoon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lim, Young-Kwon; Kim, Hae-Dong

2014-01-01

The large-scale impacts of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR) teleconnection on the East Asian winter climate anomalies are compared for the past 34 winters focusing on 1) interannual monthly to seasonal temperature variability, 2) East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM), and 3) the Siberian high (SH) and cold surge. Regression analysis reveals warming by AO and EA/WR over mid-latitude East Asia during their positive phase and vice versa. The EA/WR impact is found to be comparable to the AO impact in affecting the East Asian temperature and monsoon. For example, warm (cold) months over mid-latitude East Asia during the positive (negative) AO are clearly seen when the AO and EA/WR are in the same phase. Near zero correlation is found between temperature and the AO phase when both teleconnections are in an opposite phase. The well-known negative relationship between SH and the AO phase is observed significantly more often when the AO is in the same phase with the EA/WR. Also, the indices of EAWM, cold surge, and SH are found to be more highly negative-correlated with the EA/WR rather than with the AO. The advective temperature change and associated circulation demonstrate that the anomalous large-scale field including the SH over the mid-latitude Asian inland is better represented by the EA/WR, influencing the East Asian winter climates. These results suggest that the impact of EA/WR should be considered more important than previously thought for a better understanding of East Asian winter temperature and monsoon variability.

Multidecadal changes in winter circulation-climate relationship in Europe: frequency variations, within-type modifications, and long-term trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Küttel, Marcel; Luterbacher, Jürg; Wanner, Heinz

2011-03-01

Using pressure fields classified by the SANDRA algorithm, this study investigates the changes in the relationship between North Atlantic/European sea level pressure (SLP) and gridded European winter (DJF) temperature and precipitation back to 1750. Important changes in the frequency of the SLP clusters are found, though none of them indicating significant long-term trends. However, for the majority of the SLP clusters a tendency toward overall warmer and partly wetter winter conditions is found, most pronounced over the last decades. This suggests important within-type variations, i.e. the temperature and precipitation fields related to a particular SLP pattern change their characteristics over time. Using a decomposition scheme we find for temperature and precipitation that within-type-related variations dominate over those due to changed frequencies of the SLP clusters: Approximately 70% (60%) of European winter temperature (precipitation) variations can be explained by within-type changes, most strongly expressed over Eastern Europe and Scandinavia. This indicates that the current European winter warming cannot be explained by changed frequencies of the SLP patterns alone, but to a larger degree by changed characteristics of the patterns themselves. Potential sources of within-type variations are discussed.

Seasonal cues of Arctic grayling movement in a small Arctic stream: the importance of surface water connectivity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heim, Kurt C.; Wipfli, Mark S.; Whitman, Matthew S.; Arp, Christopher D.; Adams, Jeff; Falke, Jeffrey A.

2015-01-01

In Arctic ecosystems, freshwater fish migrate seasonally between productive shallow water habitats that freeze in winter and deep overwinter refuge in rivers and lakes. How these movements relate to seasonal hydrology is not well understood. We used passive integrated transponder tags and stream wide antennae to track 1035 Arctic grayling in Crea Creek, a seasonally flowing beaded stream on the Arctic Coastal Plain, Alaska. Migration of juvenile and adult fish into Crea Creek peaked in June immediately after ice break-up in the stream. Fish that entered the stream during periods of high flow and cold stream temperature traveled farther upstream than those entering during periods of lower flow and warmer temperature. We used generalized linear models to relate migration of adult and juvenile fish out of Crea Creek to hydrology. Most adults migrated in late June – early July, and there was best support (Akaike weight = 0.46; w i ) for a model indicating that the rate of migration increased with decreasing discharge. Juvenile migration occurred in two peaks; the early peak consisted of larger juveniles and coincided with adult migration, while the later peak occurred shortly before freeze-up in September and included smaller juveniles. A model that included discharge, minimum stream temperature, year, season, and mean size of potential migrants was most strongly supported (w i  = 0.86). Juvenile migration rate increased sharply as daily minimum stream temperature decreased, suggesting fish respond to impending freeze-up. We found fish movements to be intimately tied to the strong seasonality of discharge and temperature, and demonstrate the importance of small stream connectivity for migratory Arctic grayling during the entire open-water period. The ongoing and anticipated effects of climate change and petroleum development on Arctic hydrology (e.g. reduced stream connectivity, earlier peak flows, increased evapotranspiration) have important implications for Arctic freshwater ecosystems.

Inflight fuel tank temperature survey data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pasion, A. J.

1979-01-01

Statistical summaries of the fuel and air temperature data for twelve different routes and for different aircraft models (B747, B707, DC-10 and DC-8), are given. The minimum fuel, total air and static air temperature expected for a 0.3% probability were summarized in table form. Minimum fuel temperature extremes agreed with calculated predictions and the minimum fuel temperature did not necessarily equal the minimum total air temperature even for extreme weather, long range flights.

Interannual variability of Dissolved Oxygen values around the Balearic Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balbín, R.; Aparicio, A.; López-Jurado, J. L.; Flexas, M. M.

2012-04-01

Periodic movements of the trawl fishing fleet at Mallorca Island suggest a seasonal variability of the demersal resources, associated with hydrodynamic variability. The area where these commercial fisheries operate extends from the north to the southeast of Mallorca channel, between Mallorca and Ibiza Islands. It is thus affected by the different hydrodynamic conditions of the two sub-basins of the western Mediterranean (the Balearic and the Algerian sub-basins), with different geomorphologic and hydrodynamic characteristics. To characterize this hydrodynamic variability, hydrographic data collected around the Balearic Islands since 2001 with CTDs were analized [1]. Hydrographic parameters were processed according to the standard protocols. Dissolved oxygen (DO) was calibrated onboard using the winkler method. Temperature and salinity were used to characterize the different water masses. At the Western Mediterranean, the maximum values of DO in the water column are observed in the sur- face waters during winter (> 6.0 ml /l), when these water in contact with the atmosphere absorb large amount of oxygen, favored by low winter temperatures and notable turbulence. Later in the spring, the gradual increase of temperature, and the beginning of stratification and biological activity, lead to a decrease of oxygen concentration mainly in surface waters. During summer, these values continue to reduce in the surface mixed layer. Below it, and due to the biological activity, an increase is observed, giving rise to the absolute maximum of this parameter (> 6.5 ml /l). During autumn, the atmospheric forcing breaks the stratification producing a homogenization of surface water. At this moment, DO shows intermediate values. Below the surface waters, about 200 m, a relative maximum corresponding to the seasonal Winter Intermediate Waters (WIW) can be observed. Intermediate waters, between 400 and 600 m, reveal an oxygen minimum (4.0 ml /l) associated to the Levantine Intermediate Waters (LIW) and underneath, the Western Mediterranean Deep Waters (WMDW) show a slight increase of these values (> 4.5 ml /l). Interannual variability of DO at the Balearic and the Algerian sub-basins and in the different water masses will be presented. A systematic difference (> 0.10 ml/l) is observed at intermediate and deep waters between the oxygen con- tent in the Balearic and Algerian sub-basins. This could be explained in terms of the longer path these water masses have to cover around the Mallorca and Menorca Islands, which implies a longer residence time and consumption as a result of respiration and decay of organic matter. During some campaigns minimum DO values (≈ 3.8 ml/l) were found in this area which are smaller that the values usually reported for the Mediterranean [2, 3, 4]. Different possible causes as the influence of the Easter Mediterranean Transient, the reported increase of surface temperature or just the interannual variability, will be discussed. [1] J. L. López-Jurado, J. M. García-Lafuente, L. Cano, et al., Oceanologica acta, vol. 18, no. 2, 1995. [2] T. Packard, H. Minas, B. Coste, R. Martinez, M. Bonin, J. Gostan, P. Garfield, J. Christensen, Q. Dortch, M. Minas, et al., Deep Sea Research Part A. Oceanographic Research Papers, vol. 35, no. 7, 1988. [3] B. Manca, M. Burca, A. Giorgetti, C. Coatanoan, M. Garcia,and A. Iona, Journal of marine systems, vol. 48, no. 1-4, 2004. [4] A. Miller, "Mediterranean sea atlas of temperature, salinity, and oxygen. profiles and data from cruises of RV Atlantis and RV Chain," tech. rep., Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts, 1970.

Detection of temperature trends within the course of the year using "shifting subseasons"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahynova, Monika; Pokorna, Lucie

2015-04-01

Recent global warming has not been ubiquitous - there are seasons, regions, and time periods with clearly discernible zero or downward air temperature trends. Regions that are not warming or are even cooling - also known as "warming holes" - have been previously detected mainly in autumn in the second half of the 20th century in large parts of North America as well as in Central and Eastern Europe. Daily maximum and minimum temperature (TX and TN, respectively) and daily temperature range (DTR) at 136 stations in Europe during the period 1961-2000 are employed to precisely locate the seasonal and subseasonal trends within the course of the year. Linear trends are calculated for moving "subseasons" of differing lengths (10, 20, 30, 60, and 90 days), each shifted by one day. Cluster analysis of the annual course of "shifting trends" reveals relatively well-defined regions with similar trend behavior. Over most of Europe, the observed warming is greatest in winter, and the highest trend magnitudes are reached by TN in Eastern Europe. Two regions stand out: in Iceland and the Eastern Mediterranean, the trends during the year are weak, positive in summer and mostly negative in winter, reaching statistical significance at only few stations. Significant autumn cooling centered on mid-November was found in Eastern and Southeastern Europe for both TX and TN; in many other regions trends are close to zero in the same period. Other clearly non-warming (or even cooling) periods occur in Western and Central Europe in February, April, and late June. Trends of DTR are largely inconclusive and no general picture can be drawn. Our results suggest that using different time scales, apart from the conventional three-month seasons or common months, is highly desirable for a proper location of trends within the course of the year.

Winter Refuge for Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus Mosquitoes in Hanoi during Winter

PubMed Central

Tsunoda, Takashi; Cuong, Tran Chi; Dong, Tran Duc; Yen, Nguyen Thi; Le, Nguyen Hoang; Phong, Tran Vu; Minakawa, Noboru

2014-01-01

Dengue occurs throughout the year in Hanoi, Vietnam, despite winter low temperatures <10°C. During July 2010 to March 2012, we surveyed monthly for Aedes larvae and pupae in 120 houses in 8 Hanoi districts. Aedes albopictus preferred discarded containers in summer and pupal density drastically decreased in winter. Aedes aegypti preferred concrete tanks and this preference increased in winter. Even in winter, the lowest water temperature found in concrete tanks was >14°C, exceeding the developmental zero point of Ae. aegypti. Although jars, drums and concrete tanks were the dominant containers previously (1994–97) in Hanoi, currently the percentage of residences with concrete tanks was still high while jars and drums were quite low. Our study showed that concrete tanks with broken lids allowing mosquitoes access were important winter refuge for Ae. aegypti. We also indicate a concern about concrete tanks serving as foci for Ae. aegypti to expand their distribution in cooler regions. PMID:24752230

Observational analysis and large-scale pattern associated with cold events moving up the equator line over South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viana, Liviany; Herdies, Dirceu; Muller, Gabriela

2017-04-01

An observational study was carried out to quantify the events of cold air outbreak moving above the Equator from 1980 to 2013 during the austral winter period (May, June, July, August and September), and later analyzed the behavior of the circulation responsible for this displacement. The observational datasets from the Sector of Climatological studies of the Institute of Airspace Control of the city of Iauarete (0.61N, 69.0W; 120m), located at the extreme northern of the Brazilian Amazon Basin, were used for the analyzes. The meteorological variables used were the temperatures minimum, maximum and maximum atmospheric pressure. A new methodology was used to identify these events, calculated by the difference between the monthly average and 2 (two) standard deviations for the extremes of the air temperature, and the sum of 1 (one) standard deviation for the maximum atmospheric pressure. As a result, a total of 11 cold events were recorded that reached the extreme northern of the Brazilian Amazon Basin, with values recorded at a minimum temperature of 17.8 °C, at the maximum temperature of 21.0 °C and maximum atmospheric pressure reaching 1021.2 hPa. These reductions and augmentation are equivalent to the negative anomalies of 5.9 and 8.7 °C at the minimum and maximum temperatures, respectively, while a positive anomaly of 7.1 hPa was observed at the maximum pressure. In relation to the dynamic behavior of large-scale circulation, a Rossby wave-type configuration propagating from west to east over subtropical latitudes was observed from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) since the days before the arrival of the event in the city of Iauarete. This behavior was observed both in the anomalies of the gepotencial (250 hPa and 850 hPa) and in the southern component of the wind (250 hPa and 850 hPa), both presenting statistical significance of 99 % (Student's T test). Therefore, a new criterion for the identification of "friagens" in the tropical latitude has been able to represent the effects of colds air outbreak and the advancement of the cold air mass, which are subsidized by the large-scale circulation, and consequently contribute to the modifications in the weather and the life of the population over this Equatorial region.

A 500-year seasonally resolved δ18O and δ13C, layer thickness and calcite aspect record from a speleothem deposited in the Han-sur-Lesse cave, Belgium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Rampelbergh, M.; Verheyden, S.; Allan, M.; Quinif, Y.; Cheng, H.; Edwards, L. R.; Keppens, E.; Claeys, P.

2015-06-01

Speleothem δ18O and δ13C signals enable climate reconstructions at high resolution. However, scarce decadal and seasonally resolved speleothem records are often difficult to interpret in terms of climate due to the multitude of factors that affect the proxy signals. In this paper, a fast-growing (up to 2 mm yr-1) seasonally laminated speleothem from the Han-sur-Lesse cave (Belgium) is analyzed for its δ18O and δ13C values, layer thickness and changes in calcite aspect. The studied record covers the period between AD 2001 and 1479 as indicated by layer counting and confirmed by 20 U / Th ages. The Proserpine proxies are seasonally biased and document drier (and colder) winters on multidecadal scales. Higher δ13C signals reflect increased prior calcite precipitation (PCP) and lower soil activity during drier (and colder) winters. Thinner layers and darker calcite relate to slower growth and exist during drier (and colder) winter periods. Exceptionally dry (and cold) winter periods occur from 1565 to 1610, at 1730, from 1770 to 1800, from 1810 to 1860, and from 1880 to 1895 and correspond to exceptionally cold periods in historical and instrumental records as well as European winter temperature reconstructions. More relative climate variations, during which the four measured proxies vary independently and display lower amplitude variations, occur between 1479 and 1565, between 1610 and 1730, and between 1730 and 1770. The winters during the first and last periods are interpreted as relatively wetter (and warmer) and correspond to warmer periods in historical data and in winter temperature reconstructions in Europe. The winters in the period between 1610 and 1730 are interpreted as relatively drier (and cooler) and correspond to generally colder conditions in Europe. Interpretation of the seasonal variations in δ18O and δ13C signals differs from that on a decadal and multidecadal scale. Seasonal δ18O variations reflect cave air temperature variations and suggest a 2.5 °C seasonality in cave air temperature during the two relatively wetter (and warmer) winter periods (1479-1565 and 1730-1770), which corresponds to the cave air temperature seasonality observed today. Between 1610 and 1730, the δ18O values suggest a 1.5 °C seasonality in cave air temperature, indicating colder summer temperatures during this drier (and cooler) interval. The δ13C seasonality is driven by PCP and suggests generally lower PCP seasonal effects between 1479 and 1810 compared to today. A short interval of increased PCP seasonality occurs between 1600 and 1660, and reflects increased PCP in summer due to decreased winter recharge.

Winter cold-tolerance thresholds in field-grown Miscanthus hybrid rhizomes

PubMed Central

Peixoto, Murilo de Melo; Friesen, Patrick Calvin; Sage, Rowan F.

2015-01-01

The cold tolerance of winter-dormant rhizomes was evaluated in diploid, allotriploid, and allotetraploid hybrids of Miscanthus sinensis and Miscanthus sacchariflorus grown in a field setting. Two artificial freezing protocols were tested: one lowered the temperature continuously by 1°C h–1 to the treatment temperature and another lowered the temperature in stages of 24h each to the treatment temperature. Electrolyte leakage and rhizome sprouting assays after the cold treatment assessed plant and tissue viability. Results from the continuous-cooling trial showed that Miscanthus rhizomes from all genotypes tolerated temperatures as low as –6.5 °C; however, the slower, staged-cooling procedure enabled rhizomes from two diploid lines to survive temperatures as low as –14 °C. Allopolyploid genotypes showed no change in the lethal temperature threshold between the continuous and staged-cooling procedure, indicating that they have little ability to acclimate to subzero temperatures. The results demonstrated that rhizomes from diploid Miscanthus lines have superior cold tolerance that could be exploited to improve performance in more productive polyploid lines. With expected levels of soil insulation, low winter air temperatures should not harm rhizomes of tolerant diploid genotypes of Miscanthus in temperate to sub-boreal climates (up to 60°N); however, the observed winter cold in sub-boreal climates could harm rhizomes of existing polyploid varieties of Miscanthus and thus reduce stand performance. PMID:25788733

High resolution pCO2 monitoring reveals ventilation of Bunker Cave (NW Germany) and its impact on speleothem growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riechelmann, Sylvia; Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.; Schröder-Ritzrau, Andrea; Immenhauser, Adrian

2017-04-01

Understanding the environmental processes that influence geochemical proxies archived in speleothems depends critically on detailed cave monitoring. Cave air pCO2 is one of the most important factors controlling speleothem growth. The pCO2 concentration of cave air depends on (i) the productivity of its source(s), (ii) CO2-transport dynamics through the epikarst and (iii) cave ventilation processes. We monitored the pCO2 concentration ca. 100 m from the lower entrance of the Bunker-Emst-Cave system (NW Germany) with a CORA CO2-logger at a two-hourly resolution between April 2012 and February 2014. Near-atmospheric minimum pCO2 concentrations of 408 ppm are observed in winter, while higher values up to 811 ppm are recorded in summer. Higher summer concentrations are due to increased plant and soil microbial activity, resulting in elevated CO2 in the soil, which is transferred to the cave with infiltrating water. Generally, the front passages of Bunker Cave are well ventilated. Besides the seasonal pattern, pCO2 concentrations vary at diurnal scale. Correlations of pCO2 with the temperature difference between surface and cave air are positive during summer and negative in winter, with no clear pattern for spring and autumn months. Thus, Bunker Cave ventilation is driven by temperature and density differences between cave and surface air, with two entrances at different elevations allowing dynamic ventilation. During summer, relatively cooler cave air flows from the upper to the lower entrance, while in winter this pattern is reversed due to ascending warm cave air. The situation is further complicated by preferential south/southwestern winds that point directly on the cave entrances. Thus, cave ventilation is frequently disturbed, especially during periods of higher wind speed. Modern ventilation systematics only developed when the two cave entrances were artificially opened (1863 and 1926). Before that, ventilation was restricted and cave pCO2 concentrations were presumably higher under natural conditions. Thus, the present-day ventilation system of Bunker Cave is not a direct analogue for natural ventilation conditions. pCO2 concentrations are relatively low compared to other caves, and because the difference between summer and winter pCO2 is relatively low (max. 400 ppm), a significant effect on seasonal speleothem growth rate is unlikely. In case of Bunker Cave, it is rather a combination of the availability of water, and thus of calcium and carbonate ions and pCO2 concentrations that allow higher carbonate precipitation during winter than summer. Holocene speleothems from Bunker Cave display relatively slow growth rates. We suggest that - with absence of major entrances to the cave system during the Holocene - ventilation was minimal and pCO2 concentrations significantly higher, making winterly water supply the governing factor regulating speleothem growth. Thus, stalagmites from Bunker Cave are likely to record a climatic signal biased towards the winter season.

Systematic errors in temperature estimates from MODIS data covering the western Palearctic and their impact on a parasite development model.

PubMed

Alonso-Carné, Jorge; García-Martín, Alberto; Estrada-Peña, Agustin

2013-11-01

The modelling of habitat suitability for parasites is a growing area of research due to its association with climate change and ensuing shifts in the distribution of infectious diseases. Such models depend on remote sensing data and require accurate, high-resolution temperature measurements. The temperature is critical for accurate estimation of development rates and potential habitat ranges for a given parasite. The MODIS sensors aboard the Aqua and Terra satellites provide high-resolution temperature data for remote sensing applications. This paper describes comparative analysis of MODIS-derived temperatures relative to ground records of surface temperature in the western Palaearctic. The results show that MODIS overestimated maximum temperature values and underestimated minimum temperatures by up to 5-6 °C. The combined use of both Aqua and Terra datasets provided the most accurate temperature estimates around latitude 35-44° N, with an overestimation during spring-summer months and an underestimation in autumn-winter. Errors in temperature estimation were associated with specific ecological regions within the target area as well as technical limitations in the temporal and orbital coverage of the satellites (e.g. sensor limitations and satellite transit times). We estimated error propagation of temperature uncertainties in parasite habitat suitability models by comparing outcomes of published models. Error estimates reached 36% of annual respective measurements depending on the model used. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of adequate image processing and points out the limitations of MODIS temperature data as inputs into predictive models concerning parasite lifecycles.

Developmental plasticity of mating calls enables acoustic communication in diverse environments

PubMed Central

Beckers, Oliver M; Schul, Johannes

2008-01-01

Male calls of the katydid Neoconocephalus triops exhibit substantial developmental plasticity in two parameters: (i) calls of winter males are continuous and lack the verse structure of summer calls and (ii) at equal temperatures, summer males produce calls with a substantially higher pulse rate than winter males. We raised female N. triops under conditions that reliably induced either summer or winter phenotype and tested their preferences for the call parameters that differ between summer and winter males. Neither generation was selective for the presence of verses, but females had strong preferences for pulse rates: only a narrow range of pulse rates was attractive. The attractive ranges did not differ between summer and winter females. Both male pulse rate and female preference for pulse rate changed with ambient temperature, but female preference changed more than the male calls. As a result, the summer call was attractive only at 25°C, whereas the slower winter call was attractive only at 20°C. Thus, developmental plasticity of male calls compensates for differences in temperature dependency between calls and preferences and enables the communication system to function in heterogeneous environments. The potential role of call plasticity during the invasion of new habitats is discussed. PMID:18302998

Effect of the environmental stimuli upon the human body in winter outdoor thermal environment.

PubMed

Kurazumi, Yoshihito; Kondo, Emi; Ishii, Jin; Sakoi, Tomonori; Fukagawa, Kenta; Bolashikov, Zhecho Dimitrov; Tsuchikawa, Tadahiro; Matsubara, Naoki; Horikoshi, Tetsumi

2013-01-01

In order to manage the outdoor thermal environment with regard to human health and the environmental impact of waste heat, quantitative evaluations are indispensable. It is necessary to use a thermal environment evaluation index. The purpose of this paper is to clarify the relationship between the psychological thermal responses of the human body and winter outdoor thermal environment variables. Subjective experiments were conducted in the winter outdoor environment. Environmental factors and human psychological responses were measured. The relationship between the psychological thermal responses of the human body and the outdoor thermal environment index ETFe (enhanced conduction-corrected modified effective temperature) in winter was shown. The variables which influence the thermal sensation vote of the human body are air temperature, long-wave thermal radiation and short-wave solar radiation. The variables that influence the thermal comfort vote of the human body are air temperature, humidity, short-wave solar radiation, long-wave thermal radiation, and heat conduction. Short-wave solar radiation, and heat conduction are among the winter outdoor thermal environment variables that affect psychological responses to heat. The use of thermal environment evaluation indices that comprise short-wave solar radiation and heat conduction in winter outdoor spaces is a valid approach.

Thermosphere Response to Geomagnetic Variability during Solar Minimum Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forbes, Jeffrey; Gasperini, Federico; Zhang, Xiaoli; Doornbos, Eelco; Bruinsma, Sean; Haeusler, Kathrin; Hagan, Maura

2015-04-01

The response of thermosphere mass density to variable geomagnetic activity at solar minimum is revealed as a function of height utilizing accelerometer data from GRACE near 480 km, CHAMP near 320 km, and GOCE near 260 km during the period October-December, 2009. The GOCE data at 260 km, and to some degree the CHAMP measurements at 320 km, reveal the interesting feature that the response maximum occurs at low latitudes, rather than at high latitudes where the geomagnetic energy input is presumed to be deposited. The latitude distribution of the response is opposite to what one might expect based on thermal expansion and/or increase in mean molecular weight due to vertical transport of N2 at high latitudes. We speculate that what is observed reflects the consequences of an equatorward meridional circulation with downward motion and compressional heating at low latitudes. A numerical simulation using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIME-GCM) is used to assist with this diagnosis. At 480 km GRACE reveals maximum density responses at high southern (winter) latitudes, consistent with recent interpretations in terms of compositional versus temperature effects near the oxygen-helium transition altitude during low solar activity.

Subseasonal Reversal of East Asian Surface Temperature Variability in Winter 2014/15

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Xinping; Li, Fei; He, Shengping; Wang, Huijun

2018-06-01

Although there has been a considerable amount of research conducted on the East Asian winter-mean climate, subseasonal surface air temperature (SAT) variability reversals in the early and late winter remain poorly understood. In this study, we focused on the recent winter of 2014/15, in which warmer anomalies dominated in January and February but colder conditions prevailed in December. Moreover, Arctic sea-ice cover (ASIC) in September-October 2014 was lower than normal, and warmer sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies occurred in the Niño4 region in winter, together with a positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO|+) phase. Using observational data and CMIP5 historical simulations, we investigated the PDO|+ phase modulation upon the winter warm Niño4 phase (autumn ASIC reduction) influence on the subseasonal SAT variability of East Asian winter. The results show that, under a PDO|+ phase modulation, warm Niño4 SST anomalies are associated with a subseasonal delay of tropical surface heating and subsequent Hadley cell and Ferrel cell intensification in January-February, linking the tropical and midlatitude regions. Consistently, the East Asian jet stream (EAJS) is significantly decelerated in January-February and hence promotes the warm anomalies over East Asia. Under the PDO|+ phase, the decrease in ASIC is related to cold SST anomalies in the western North Pacific, which increase the meridional temperature gradient and generate an accelerated and westward-shifted EAJS in December. The westward extension of the EAJS is responsible for the eastward-propagating Rossby waves triggered by declining ASIC and thereby favors the connection between ASIC and cold conditions over East Asia.

Airborne pollen and spores of León (Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández-González, Delia; Suarez-Cervera, María; Díaz-González, Tomás; Valencia-Barrera, Rosa María

1993-06-01

A qualitative and quantitative analysis of airborne pollen and spores was carried out over 2 years (from September 1987 to August 1989) in the city of León. Slides were prepared daily using a volumetric pollen trap, which was placed on the Faculty of Veterinary Science building (University of León) 12m above ground-level. Fifty-one pollen types were observed; the most important of these were: Cupressaceae during the winter, Pinus and Quercus in spring, and Poaceae, Leguminosae and Chenopodiaceae in the summer. The results also showed the existence of a rich mould spore assemblage in the atmosphere. The group of Amerospores ( Penicillium, Aspergillus and Cladosporium) as well as Dictyospores ( Alternaria) were the most abundant; Puccinia was common in the air in August. Fluctuations in the total pollen and spores m3 of air were compared with meteorological parameters (temperature, relative humidity and rainfall). From the daily sampling of the atmosphere of León, considering the maximum and minimum temperature and duration of rainfall, the start of the pollen grain season was observed generally to coincide with a rise in temperature in the absence of rain.

Developing and demonstrating low-energy climate control and production techniques for greenhouse-grown citrus and ornamental crops

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bodnaruk, W.H. Jr.

1983-04-01

The aim of this study was to develop and demonstrate low energy climate control and production techniques for greenhouse grown citrus and ornamental crops. Emphasis was placed on design, fuel efficiency and plant response to warm water soil heating systems using solar energy and LP gas. An energy requirement of 28Btus output per hour per square foot of bed space will provide soil temperature of 70/sup 0/F minimum when air temperatures are maintained at 60/sup 0/F. Soil heating to 70/sup 0/ increased rooting and growth of 8 foliage plant varieties by 25 to 45% compared to plants grown under 60/supmore » 0/F air temperature conditions. Providing soil heating, however, increased fuel consumption in the central Florida test facilities by 30% in the winters of 1980-81 and 1981-82. Solar tie-in to soil heating systems has the potential of reducing fuel usage. Solar heated water provided 4 hours of soil heating following a good collection day. Decreased in-bed pipe spacing and increased storage capacity should increase the solar percentage to 6 hours.« less

East Asian winter temperature variation associated with the combined effects of AO and WP pattern

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Hye-Jin; Ahn, Joong-Bae

2016-04-01

The combined effects of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Western Pacific (WP) teleconnection pattern on the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) over the last 56 years (1958/59-2013/2014) were investigated using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data (Park and Ahn, 2015). The study results revealed that the effect of the AO on winter temperature in East Asia could be changed depending on the phases of the WP pattern in the North Pacific. The negative relationship between the EAWM and the AO increased when the AO and WP were in-phase with each other. Hence, when winter negative (positive) AO was accompanied by negative (positive) WP, negative (positive) temperature anomalies were dominant across the entire East Asia region. Conversely, when the AO and WP were of-of-phase, the winter temperature anomaly in East Asia did not show distinct changes. Furthermore, from the perspective of stationary planetary waves, the zonal wavenumber-2 patterns of sea level pressure and geopotential height at 500hPa circulation strengthened when the AO and WP were in-phase but were not significant for the out-of-phase condition. It explained the possible mechanism of the combined effects of the AO and WP on the circulation related to EAWM. Reference Park, H.-J., and J.-B. Ahn (2015) Combined effect of the Arctic Oscillation and the Western Pacific pattern on East Asia winter temperature, Clim. Dyn. DOI:10.1007/s00382-015-2763-2. Acknowledgements This work was funded by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under grant KMIPA2015-2081.

Impacts of Synoptic Weather Patterns on Snow Albedo at Sites in New England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adolph, A. C.; Albert, M. R.; Lazarcik, J.; Dibb, J. E.; Amante, J.; Price, A. N.

2015-12-01

Winter snow in the northeastern United States has changed over the last several decades, resulting in shallower snow packs, fewer days of snow cover and increasing precipitation falling as rain in the winter. In addition to these changes which cause reductions in surface albedo, increasing winter temperatures also lead to more rapid snow grain growth, resulting in decreased snow reflectivity. We present in-situ measurements and analyses to test the sensitivity of seasonal snow albedo to varying weather conditions at sites in New England. In particular, we investigate the impact of temperature on snow albedo through melt and grain growth, the impact of precipitation event frequency on albedo through snow "freshening," and the impact of storm path on snow structure and snow albedo. Over three winter seasons between 2013 and 2015, in-situ snow characterization measurements were made at three non-forested sites across New Hampshire. These near-daily measurements include spectrally resolved albedo, snow optical grain size determined through contact spectroscopy, snow depth, snow density and local meteorological parameters. Combining this information with storm tracks derived from HYSPLIT modeling, we quantify the current sensitivity of northeastern US snow albedo to temperature as well as precipitation type, frequency and path. Our analysis shows that southerly winter storms result in snow with a significantly lower albedo than storms which come from across the continental US or the Atlantic Ocean. Interannual variability in temperature and statewide spatial variability in snowfall rates at our sites show the relative importance of snowfall amount and temperatures in albedo evolution over the course of the winter.

Leaf anatomical and photosynthetic acclimation to cool temperature and high light in two winter versus two summer annuals.

PubMed

Cohu, Christopher M; Muller, Onno; Adams, William W; Demmig-Adams, Barbara

2014-09-01

Acclimation of foliar features to cool temperature and high light was characterized in winter (Spinacia oleracea L. cv. Giant Nobel; Arabidopsis thaliana (L.) Heynhold Col-0 and ecotypes from Sweden and Italy) versus summer (Helianthus annuus L. cv. Soraya; Cucurbita pepo L. cv. Italian Zucchini Romanesco) annuals. Significant relationships existed among leaf dry mass per area, photosynthesis, leaf thickness and palisade mesophyll thickness. While the acclimatory response of the summer annuals to cool temperature and/or high light levels was limited, the winter annuals increased the number of palisade cell layers, ranging from two layers under moderate light and warm temperature to between four and five layers under cool temperature and high light. A significant relationship was also found between palisade tissue thickness and either cross-sectional area or number of phloem cells (each normalized by vein density) in minor veins among all four species and growth regimes. The two winter annuals, but not the summer annuals, thus exhibited acclimatory adjustments of minor vein phloem to cool temperature and/or high light, with more numerous and larger phloem cells and a higher maximal photosynthesis rate. The upregulation of photosynthesis in winter annuals in response to low growth temperature may thus depend on not only (1) a greater volume of photosynthesizing palisade tissue but also (2) leaf veins containing additional phloem cells and presumably capable of exporting a greater volume of sugars from the leaves to the rest of the plant. © 2014 Scandinavian Plant Physiology Society.

SkiSim - A semi-distributed model to assess the impact of climate change on ski season length and snowmaking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steiger, R.

2009-04-01

Winter tourism is highly sensitive to climate change. The altitudinally- dependent line of natural snow reliability (e.g. Abegg et al. 2007) is losing its relevance for skilift operators, as for example in Tyrol 70% of the ski slopes are already covered by technical snow production. Less snowfall at lower altitudes and rising temperatures increase the demand for technical snow. Simultaneously, periods cold enough for snowmaking will get shorter and less frequent. Studies incorporating snowmaking are still rare and there is need for an assessment of the suitability of snowmaking as a successful adaptation strategy. The aim of this study is to assess the development of ski season lengths and snowmaking requirements under different climate change scenarios for ski areas in North and South Tyrol. A semi-distributed ski season model "SkiSim" was developed based on the temperature-index snow model of Kleindienst (2000) and the ski season model of Scott et al. (2007). As input variables only daily minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation are needed. Additionally, measured snowfall and snow depth are used for the calibration of the snowfall temperature at each climate station. Further snow model parameters (e.g. degree-day factor, snow metamorphosis) were adopted from Kleindienst (2000) and tested at all stations. Snowmaking module parameters were derived from interviews with ski area managers based on the methodology of Scott et al. (2007). Daily data (1960-2100) of the high resolution climate model REMO (10x10km) was used to produce climate change scenarios for four time horizons (2020s, 2030s, 2050s, 2080s) under two emission scenarios (A1B and B1). The climate change signal for change in temperature, (in standard deviation of temperature, in precipitation and in dry and wet spells) was processed on climate station data by the LARS weather generator. In winter (DJF), the change signal for daily average temperature from the 2020s to 2080s compared to 1971-2000 is +1,4°C to +3,5°C in the B1 scenario, and from +1,2°C to 5,7°C in the A1B scenario. Precipitation change in the A1B scenario is between +5% and +10%, in B1 it is +5% to +20%. The synthetic daily data produced by LARS-WG is the input data for the ski season model. Temperature and precipitation are distributed for each 100m altitude band, ranging from the lowest to the highest point of the ski area. The ski season model produces results for the whole ski area and not just for one single point (e.g. the lowest point in a ski area). Thus it is possible to assess the impact of climate change on ski season length and snowmaking in much greater detail than in previous studies. Based on these results, the consequences for winter tourism destinations can be assessed. Following the methodology of Breiling et al. (1997, 2008), the contribution of winter tourism to the regional economy and the number employments in tourism serve as an indicator for the vulnerability of communities and regions to climate change. In total 120 ski areas in North and South Tyrol are investigated in the running project. Results of three ski areas, different in size and altitude, will be presented. Sources: Abegg, B., S. Agrawala, Crick, F., de Montfalcon, A. (2007): Climate change impacts and adaptation in winter tourism. In: S. Agrawala, Climate Change in the European Alps. Adapting Winter Tourism and Natural Hazards Management. Paris, OECD: 25-60. Breiling, M., Charamza, P., Skage, O. (1997): Klimasensibilität österreichischer Bezirke mit besonderer Berücksichtigung des Wintertourismus. Rapport 1,Department of Landscape Planning Alnarp, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences. Breiling, M., Charamza, P.,Feilmayr, W. (2008): Klimasensibilität des Salzburger Wintertourismus nach Bezirken, TTL, TU Vienna. Kleindienst, H. (2000): Snow hydrological models as tools for snow cover assessment and water resources management, Bern. Phd. Scott, D., G. McBoyle, Minogue, A. (2007): Climate Change and Quebećs Ski Industry. In: Global Environmental Change 17, 181-190.

Environmental and genetic influences on flight metabolic rate in the honey bee, Apis mellifera.

PubMed

Harrison, Jon F; Fewell, Jennifer H

2002-10-01

Flying honey bees demonstrate highly variable metabolic rates. The lowest reported values (approximately 0.3 Wg(-1)) occur in tethered bees generating the minimum lift to support their body weight, free-flying 2-day old bees, winter bees, or bees flying at high air temperatures (45 degrees C). The highest values (approximately 0.8 Wg(-1)) occur in foragers that are heavily loaded or flying in low-density air. In different studies, flight metabolic rate has increased, decreased, or remained constant with air temperature. Current research collectively suggests that this variation occurs because flight metabolic rates decrease at thorax temperatures above or below 38 degrees C. At 30 degrees C, approximately 30% of colonial energy is spent during typical foraging, so variation in flight metabolic rate can strongly affect colony-level energy balance. Higher air temperatures tend to increase colonial net gain rates, efficiencies and honey storage rates due to lower metabolic rates during flight and in the hive. Variation in flight metabolism has a clear genetic basis. Different genetic strains of honey bees often differ in flight metabolic rate, and these differences in flight physiology can be correlated with foraging effort, suggesting a possible pathway for selection effects on flight metabolism.

Precession-paced thermocline water temperature changes in response to upwelling conditions off southern Sumatra over the past 300,000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xingxing; Jian, Zhimin; Lückge, Andreas; Wang, Yue; Dang, Haowen; Mohtadi, Mahyar

2018-07-01

Modern variations of sea surface temperature (SST) and thermocline water temperature (TWT) off southern Sumatra are responding to local upwelling conditions which are controlled by the Australian-Indonesian winter monsoon. The relationships between SST, TWT and upwelling during the past glacial-interglacial cycles are less clearly understood. In this study, SST and TWT variabilities over the past 300 kyr are reconstructed by using foraminiferal Mg/Ca-paleothermometry in sediment core SO139-74 KL off southern Sumatra (6°32.6‧S, 103°50‧E; 1690 m water depth). Whereas SST shows a clear glacial-interglacial cycle, TWT displays a predominant cycle at the precession band. Generally, the TWT record varies with total organic carbon content, revealing that similar to today, TWT and upwelling intensity off southern Sumatra vary in concert during the past 300 kyr. The lack of glacial-interglacial variability in the TWT suggests a limited role of glacial boundary conditions, such as changing sea level and ice volume, on the upwelling intensity in this region. The vertical gradients of upper water δ18O and temperature at this site also reveal precessional cyclicity. Our model simulation of air-sea interaction further supports the low TWTs during periods of enhanced upwelling and precession minimum.

Body temperature null distributions in reptiles with nonzero heat capacity: seasonal thermoregulation in the American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis).

PubMed

Seebacher, Frank; Elsey, Ruth M; Trosclair, Phillip L

2003-01-01

Regulation of body temperature may increase fitness of animals by ensuring that biochemical and physiological processes proceed at an optimal rate. The validity of current methods of testing whether or not thermoregulation in reptiles occurs is often limited to very small species that have near zero heat capacity. The aim of this study was to develop a method that allows estimation of body temperature null distributions of large reptiles and to investigate seasonal thermoregulation in the American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis). Continuous body temperature records of wild alligators were obtained from implanted dataloggers in winter (n=7, mass range: 1.6-53.6 kg) and summer (n=7, mass range: 1.9-54.5 kg). Body temperature null distributions were calculated by randomising behavioural postures, thereby randomly altering relative animal surface areas exposed to different avenues of heat transfer. Core body temperatures were predicted by calculations of transient heat transfer by conduction and blood flow. Alligator body temperatures follow regular oscillations during the day. Occasionally, body temperature steadied during the day to fall within a relatively narrow range. Rather than indicating shuttling thermoregulation, however, this pattern could be predicted from random movements. Average daily body temperature increases with body mass in winter but not in summer. Daily amplitudes of body temperature decrease with increasing body mass in summer but not in winter. These patterns result from differential exposure to heat transfer mechanisms at different seasons. In summer, alligators are significantly cooler than predictions for a randomly moving animal, and the reverse is the case in winter. Theoretical predictions show, however, that alligators can be warmer in winter if they maximised their sun exposure. We concluded that alligators may not rely exclusively on regulation of body temperature but that they may also acclimatise biochemically to seasonally changing environmental conditions.

European temperature responses to blocking and ridge regional patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sousa, Pedro M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Barriopedro, David; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Santos, João A.

2018-01-01

Blocking occurrence and its impacts on European temperature have been studied in the last decade. However, most previous studies on blocking impacts have focused on winter only, disregarding its fingerprint in summer and differences with other synoptic patterns that also trigger temperature extremes. In this work, we provide a clear distinction between high-latitude blocking and sub-tropical ridges occurring in three sectors of the Euro-Atlantic region, describing their climatology and consequent impacts on European temperature during both winter and summer. Winter blocks (ridges) are generally associated to colder (warmer) than average conditions over large regions of Europe, in some areas with anomalies larger than 5 °C, particularly for the patterns occurring in the Atlantic and Central European sectors. During summer, there is a more regional response characterized by above average temperature for both blocking and ridge patterns, especially those occurring in continental areas, although negative temperature anomalies persist in southernmost areas during blocking. An objective analysis of the different forcing mechanisms associated to each considered weather regime has been performed, quantifying the importance of the following processes in causing the temperature anomalies: horizontal advection, vertical advection and diabatic heating. While during winter advection processes tend to be more relevant to explain temperature responses, in summer radiative heating under enhanced insolation plays a crucial role for both blocking and ridges. Finally, the changes in the distributions of seasonal temperature and in the frequencies of extreme temperature indices were also examined for specific areas of Europe. Winter blocking and ridge patterns are key drivers in the occurrence of regional cold and warm extreme temperatures, respectively. In summer, they are associated with substantial changes in the frequency of extremely warm days, but with different signatures in southern Europe. We conclude that there has been some misusage of the traditional blocking definition in the attribution of extreme events.

Earth sheltered bee wintering and solar honey house. Final technical report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

The construction and operation of an indoor wintering facility and a passive solar honey house are discussed. Goals for the project included both energy savings and financial savings for the beekeeping industry. The underground winter shelter provided a control temperature of approximately 46/sup 0/F in order to decrease both mortality rates and honey consumption rates of the bees. Three hundred square feet of glazing combined with wall insulation maintained comfortable work space temperatures for the ground level storage of honey. (BCS)

Chapter 13. Atmospheric Dynamics and Meteorology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Flasar, F. M.; Baines, K. H.; Bird, M. K.; Tokano, T.

2009-01-01

Titan, after Venus, is the second example in the solar system of an atmosphere with a global cyclostrophic circulation, but in this case a circulation that has a strong seasonal modulation in the middle atmosphere. Direct measurement of Titan's winds, particularly observations tracking the Huygens probe at 10 deg S, indicate that the zonal winds are mostly in the sense of the satellite's rotation. They generally increase with altitude and become cyclostrophic near 35 km above the surface. An exception to this is a sharp minimum centered near 75 km, where the wind velocity decreases to nearly zero. Zonal winds derived from temperatures retrieved from Cassini orbiter measurements, using the thermal wind equation, indicate a strong winter circumpolar vortex, with maximum winds of 190 m/s at mid northern latitudes near 300 km. Above this level, the vortex decays. Curiously, the stratospheric zonal winds and temperatures in both hemispheres are symmetric about a pole that is offset from the surface pole by about 4 deg. The cause of this is not well understood, but it may reflect the response of a cyclostrophic circulation to the onset between the equator, where the distance to the rotation axis is greatest, and the seasonally varying subsolar latitude. The mean meridional circulation can be inferred from the temperature field and the meridional distribution of organic molecules and condensates and hazes. Both the warm temperatures near 400 km and the enhanced concentration of several organic molecules suggest subsidence in the north polar region during winter and early spring. Stratospheric condensates are localized at high northern latitudes, with a sharp cut-off near 50 deg N. Titan's winter polar vortex appears to share many of the same characteristics of isolating high and low-latitude air masses as do the winter polar vortices on Earth that envelop the ozone holes. Global mapping of temperatures, winds, and composition in the troposphere, by contrast, is incomplete. The few suitable discrete clouds that have been found for tracking indicate smaller velocities than aloft, consistent: with the Huygens measurements, Along the descent trajectory, the Huygens measurements indicate eastward zonal winds down to 7 km, where they shift westward, and then eastward again below 1 km dawn to the surface. The low-latitude dune fields seen in Cassini RADAR images have been interpreted as longitudinal dunes occurring in a mean eastward zonal wind. This is not like Earth, where the low-latitude winds are westward above the surface. Because the net zonal-mean time-averaged torque exerted by the surface on the atmosphere should vanish, there must be westward flow over part of the surface; the question is where and when. The meridional contrast in tropospheric temperatures deduced from radio occultations at low, mid, and high latitudes. is small, approximately 5 K at the tropopause and approximately 3 K at the surface. This implies efficient heat transport, probably by axisymmetric meridional circulations. The effect of the methane "hydrological" cycle on the atmospheric circulation is not well constrained by existing measurements, Understanding the mature of the surface-atmosphere coupling will be critical to elucidating the atmospheric transports of momentum, heat, and volatiles.

Arctic multiyear ice classification and summer ice cover using passive microwave satellite data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comiso, J. C.

1990-01-01

Passive microwave data collected by Nimbus 7 were used to classify and monitor the Arctic multilayer sea ice cover. Sea ice concentration maps during several summer minima are analyzed to obtain estimates of ice floes that survived summer, and the results are compared with multiyear-ice concentrations derived from these data by using an algorithm that assumes a certain emissivity for multiyear ice. The multiyear ice cover inferred from the winter data was found to be about 25 to 40 percent less than the summer ice-cover minimum, indicating that the multiyear ice cover in winter is inadequately represented by the passive microwave winter data and that a significant fraction of the Arctic multiyear ice floes exhibits a first-year ice signature.

CO2 Ice Formation and CO2 Gas Depletion in the Polar Winter Atmosphere of Mars from Mars Climate Sounder Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kleinboehl, A.; Patel, P. K.; Schofield, J. T.; Kass, D. M.; Hayne, P. O.; McCleese, D. J.

2016-12-01

Temperatures in the martian lower atmosphere commonly reach the frost point of CO2 in the polar winter vortices over an extended vertical range. New retrievals from the Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) instrument on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter allow the characterization of the winter polar regions with improved accuracy. MCS is a passive infrared sounder with 5 mid-infrared, 3 far infrared, and one broadband visible/near-infrared channels. Each spectral channel uses a linear detector array consisting of 21 elements, which provides -10 to 90 km altitude coverage when pointed at the Mars limb. From the infrared measurements, vertical profiles of temperature and aerosols are retrieved with an altitude resolution of about 5 km. Due to their long optical path through the atmosphere, limb measurements are susceptible to horizontal gradients in temperature or absorber amount in their line-of-sight, an effect that is particularly important in polar winter regions due to strong latitudinal temperature gradients in the atmosphere. The new retrievals take horizontal gradients in temperature and aerosols into account by means of a two-dimensional radiative transfer scheme. The resulting temperature profiles reveal that temperatures in the south winter polar region repeatedly drop several degrees below the frost point of CO2. This behavior is consistent with the removal of CO2 from the atmosphere through condensation, resulting in an atmosphere that is depleted in gaseous CO2 and enhanced in non-condensable gases like N2 and Ar. In these regions emission features at 22 μm are often found in MCS limb measurements, consistent with the presence of CO2 ice in the polar vortex. We will map these depletions of CO2 gas and show correlations with the occurrence of CO2 ice. We will provide comparisons of these effects between the southern and the northern polar winter vortices.

Changes in the seasonality of Arctic sea ice and temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bintanja, R.

2012-04-01

Observations show that the Arctic sea ice cover is currently declining as a result of climate warming. According to climate models, this retreat will continue and possibly accelerate in the near-future. However, the magnitude of this decline is not the same throughout the year. With temperatures near or above the freezing point, summertime Arctic sea ice will quickly diminish. However, at temperatures well below freezing, the sea ice cover during winter will exhibit a much weaker decline. In the future, the sea ice seasonal cycle will be no ice in summer, and thin one-year ice in winter. Hence, the seasonal cycle in sea ice cover will increase with ongoing climate warming. This in itself leads to an increased summer-winter contrast in surface air temperature, because changes in sea ice have a dominant influence on Arctic temperature and its seasonality. Currently, the annual amplitude in air temperature is decreasing, however, because winters warm faster than summer. With ongoing summer sea ice reductions there will come a time when the annual temperature amplitude will increase again because of the large seasonal changes in sea ice. This suggests that changes in the seasonal cycle in Arctic sea ice and temperature are closely, and intricately, connected. Future changes in Arctic seasonality (will) have an profound effect on flora, fauna, humans and economic activities.

Torpor and activity in a free-ranging tropical bat: implications for the distribution and conservation of mammals?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geiser, Fritz; Stawski, Clare; Bondarenco, Artiom; Pavey, Chris R.

2011-05-01

Bats are most diverse in the tropics, but there are no quantitative data on torpor use for energy conservation by any tropical bat in the wild. We examined the thermal biology, activity patterns and torpor use of two tree-roosting long-eared bats ( Nyctophilus geoffroyi, 7.8 g) in tropical northern Australia in winter using temperature telemetry. Bats commenced activity about 20 min after sunset, ended activity about 2.5 h before sunrise and entered torpor everyday in the early morning even when minimum ambient temperatures ( T a) were as high as 23°C. On average, bats remained torpid for almost 5 h, mean minimum skin temperature ( T skin) measured was 22.8 ± 0.1°C and daily T skin minima were correlated with T a. Our study shows that even in the tropics, torpor is frequently employed by bats, suggesting that worldwide most bat species are heterothermic and use torpor for energy conservation. We propose that the ability of employing torpor and the resulting highly plastic energy requirements may partially explain why these small insectivorous bats can inhabit almost the entire Australian continent despite vastly different climatic and likely trophic conditions. Reduced energy requirements also may permit survival in degraded or modified habitats, reduce the need for foraging and reduce exposure to predators. Thus, the ability to employ torpor may be one important reason for why most Australian bats and other heterothermic mammals have not gone extinct whereas many obligatory homeothermic mammals that cannot employ torpor and have high energy and foraging requirements have suffered high rates of extinctions.

Evidence of the Lower Thermospheric Winter-to-Summer Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, L.; Burns, A. G.; Yue, J.

2017-12-01

Numerical studies showed that the lower thermospheric winter-to-summer circulation is driven by wave dissipation, and it plays a significant role in trace gas distributions in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT), and in the composition of the thermosphere. Direct observations of this circulation are difficult. However, it leaves clear signatures in tracer distributions. Recent analysis of CO2 observed by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) onboard the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics satellite showed dynamically driven dense isolines of CO2 at summer high latitudes. We conduct modeling and observational studies to understand the CO2 distribution and circulation patterns in the MLT. We found that there exists maximum vertical gradient of CO2 at summer high latitudes, driven by the convergence of the upwelling of the mesospheric circulation and the downwelling of the lower thermospheric circulation; this maximum vertical gradient of CO2 is located at a higher altitude in the winter hemisphere, driven by the convergence of the upwelling of the lower thermospheric circulation and the downwelling of the solar-driven thermospheric circulation. Based on SABER CO2 distribution, the bottom of the lower thermospheric circulation is located between 95 km and 100 km, and it has a vertical extent of 10 km. Analysis of the SABER CO2 and temperature at summer high latitudes showed that the bottom of this circulation is consistently higher than the mesopause height by 10 km; and its location does not change much between solar maximum and solar minimum.

Analysis of individual- and time-specific covariate effects on survival of Serinus serinus in north-eastern Spain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conroy, M.J.; Senar, J.C.; Domenech, J.

2002-01-01

We developed models for the analysis of recapture data for 2678 serins (Serinus serinus) ringed in north-eastern Spain since 1985. We investigated several time- and individual-specific factors as potential predictors of overall mortality and dispersal patterns, and of gender and age differences in these patterns. Time-specific covariates included minimum daily temperature, days below freezing, and abundance of a strong competitor, siskins (Carduelis spinus) during winter, and maximum temperature and rainfall during summer. Individual covariates included body mass (i.e. body condition), and wing length (i.e. flying ability), and interactions between body mass and environmental factors. We found little support of a predictive relationship between environmental factors and survival, but good evidence of relationships between body mass and survival, especially for juveniles. Juvenile survival appears to vary in a curvilinear manner with increasing mass, suggesting that there may exist an optimal mass beyond which increases are detrimental. The mass-survival relationship does seem to be influenced by at least one environmental factor, namely the abundance of wintering siskins. When siskins are abundant, increases in body mass appear to relate strongly to increasing survival. When siskin numbers are average or low the relationship is largely reversed, suggesting that the presence of strong competition mitigates the otherwise largely negative aspects of greater body mass. Wing length in juveniles also appears to be related positively to survival, perhaps largely due to the influence of a few unusually large juveniles with adult-like survival. Further work is needed to test these relationships, ideally under experimentation.

Assessing frost damages using dynamic models in walnut trees: exposure rather than vulnerability controls frost risks.

PubMed

Guillaume, Charrier; Isabelle, Chuine; Marc, Bonhomme; Thierry, Améglio

2018-05-01

Frost damages develop when exposure overtakes frost vulnerability. Frost risk assessment therefore needs dynamic simulation of frost hardiness using temperature and photoperiod in interaction with developmental stage. Two models, including or not the effect of photoperiod, were calibrated using five years of frost hardiness monitoring (2007-2012), in two locations (low and high elevation) for three walnut genotypes with contrasted phenology and maximum hardiness (Juglans regia cv Franquette, J. regia × nigra 'Early' and 'Late'). The photothermal model predicted more accurate values for all genotypes (efficiency = 0.879; Root Mean Standard Error Predicted (RMSEP) = 2.55 °C) than the thermal model (efficiency = 0.801; RMSEP = 3.24 °C). Predicted frost damages were strongly correlated to minimum temperature of the freezing events (ρ = -0.983) rather than actual frost hardiness (ρ = -0.515), or ratio of phenological stage completion (ρ = 0.336). Higher frost risks are consequently predicted during winter, at high elevation, whereas spring is only risky at low elevation in early genotypes exhibiting faster dehardening rate. However, early frost damages, although of lower value, may negatively affect fruit production the subsequent year (R 2  = 0.381, P = 0.057). These results highlight the interacting pattern between frost exposure and vulnerability at different scales and the necessity of intra-organ studies to understand the time course of frost vulnerability in flower buds along the winter. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Foliage Sampling Guides for Loblolly Pine

Treesearch

Carol G. Wells

1969-01-01

Loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) trees were sampled to determine the effect of growth flush, crown position of pole trees, and winter temperature extremes upon the nutrient content of needles. Winter temperatures did not have an important influence upon elemental content. Because concentrations of several elements differed for Ihe first, second, and...

Effects of environmental conditions on onset of xylem growth in Pinus sylvestris under drought.

PubMed

Swidrak, Irene; Gruber, Andreas; Kofler, Werner; Oberhuber, Walter

2011-05-01

We determined the influence of environmental factors (air and soil temperature, precipitation, photoperiod) on onset of xylem growth in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) within a dry inner Alpine valley (750 m a.s.l., Tyrol, Austria) by repeatedly sampling micro-cores throughout 2007-10 at two sites (xeric and dry-mesic) at the start of the growing season. Temperature sums were calculated in degree-days (DD) ≥5 °C from 1 January and 20 March, i.e., spring equinox, to account for photoperiodic control of release from winter dormancy. Threshold temperatures at which xylogenesis had a 0.5 probability of being active were calculated by logistic regression. Onset of xylem growth, which was not significantly different between the xeric and dry-mesic sites, ranged from mid-April in 2007 to early May in 2008. Among most study years, statistically significant differences (P<0.05) in onset of xylem growth were detected. Mean air temperature sums calculated from 1 January until onset of xylem growth were 230 ± 44 DD (mean ± standard deviation) at the xeric site and 205 ± 36 DD at the dry-mesic site. Temperature sums calculated from spring equinox until onset of xylem growth showed somewhat less variability during the 4-year study period, amounting to 144 ± 10 and 137 ± 12 DD at the xeric and dry-mesic sites, respectively. At both sites, xylem growth was active when daily minimum, mean and maximum air temperatures were 5.3, 10.1 and 16.2 °C, respectively. Soil temperature thresholds and DD until onset of xylem growth differed significantly between sites, indicating minor importance of root-zone temperature for onset of xylem growth. Although spring precipitation is known to limit radial growth in P. sylvestris exposed to a dry inner Alpine climate, the results of this study revealed that (i) a daily minimum air temperature threshold for onset of xylem growth in the range 5-6 °C exists and (ii) air temperature sum rather than precipitation or soil temperature triggers start of xylem growth. Based on these findings, we suggest that drought stress forces P. sylvestris to draw upon water reserves in the stem for enlargement of first tracheids after cambial resumption in spring. © The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

Effects of environmental conditions on onset of xylem growth in Pinus sylvestris under drought

PubMed Central

Swidrak, Irene; Gruber, Andreas; Kofler, Werner; Oberhuber, Walter

2012-01-01

Summary We determined influence of environmental factors (air and soil temperature, precipitation, photoperiod) on onset of xylem growth in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) within a dry inner Alpine valley (750 m a.s.l., Tyrol, Austria) by repeatedly sampling micro-cores throughout 2007-2010 at two sites (xeric and dry-mesic) at the start of the growing season. Temperature sums were calculated in degree-days (DD) ≥ 5 °C from 1 January and 20 March, i.e. spring equinox, to account for photoperiodic control of release from winter dormancy. Threshold temperatures at which xylogenesis had a 0.5 probability of being active were calculated by logistic regression. Onset of xylem growth, which was not significantly different between the xeric and dry-mesic site, ranged from mid-April in 2007 to early May in 2008. Among most study years statistically significant differences (P < 0.05) in onset of xylem growth were detected. Mean air temperature sums calculated from 1 January until onset of xylem growth were 230 ± 44 DD (mean ± standard deviation) at the xeric and 205 ± 36 DD at the dry-mesic site. Temperature sums calculated from spring equinox until onset of xylem growth showed quite less variability during the four year study period amounting to 144 ± 10 and 137 ± 12 DD at the xeric and dry-mesic site, respectively. At both sites xylem growth was active when daily minimum, mean and maximum air temperatures were 5.3, 10.1 and 16.2 °C, respectively. Soil temperature thresholds and DD until onset of xylem growth differed significantly between sites indicating minor importance of root-zone temperature for onset of xylem growth. Although spring precipitation is known to limit radial growth in P. sylvestris exposed to dry inner Alpine climate, results of this study revealed that (i) a daily minimum air temperature threshold for onset of xylem growth in the range of 5-6 °C exists and (ii) air temperature sum rather than precipitation or soil temperature triggers start of xylem growth. Based on these findings we suggest that drought stress forces P. sylvestris to draw upon water reserves in the stem for enlargement of first tracheids after cambial resumption in spring. PMID:21593011

Minimum retroreflectivity of traffic signs and pavement markings.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1995-11-01

This final report contains two separate reports which describe the retroreflectivity : levels of various traffic signs and pavement markings on the lowa primary road : system. The data was collected in the falll/winter of 1994 and given to the : Fede...

Climate Change in the Western United States: Projections and Observations (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Redmond, K. T.

2009-12-01

The interplay between projections and observations of climate, and the role of observations as they unfold, form the primary emphasis for this talk. The consensus among climate projections is that the Western United States will warm, and that annual precipitation will increase near the Canada/US border and decrease near the Mexico/US border. Inter-model agreement is greater for temperature than precipitation, though precipitation projections show some tendency toward slow convergence. Seasonal temperature changes are expected to be similar from month to month, slightly greater in summer and slightly smaller in winter. Coastal temperature increases are expected to be smaller than inland. High elevation increases may be slightly greater than those at low elevation. The precipitation season is in general expected to be more concentrated in winter, with less (or less increase, depending on latitude) precipitation in spring, summer, and autumn than without climate change. Climate should have started to depart from the baseline (no-change) case about 30-35 years ago. Observations show that temperatures West-wide did begin to rise during the 1970s. Precipitation changes have been more ambiguous. Annual temperature increases in the U.S. have been much more prominent in the West (and to some extent the north) than in the East, especially during the last decade. Summer in particular has shown a marked temperature increase since around 2000. Minimum temperatures have shown more increase (in many cases considerably more) than maximum temperatures. Annual freezing levels, from essentially independent data sets, have risen during this time. Acceptance of climate change in the public mind is increased when evidence visibly aligns with projections. This appears to have been particularly important in the western states. However, other sources of climate variability, of human or natural origin, on seasonal to decadal scales, can obscure or partially and temporarily mask expected effects of greenhouse gas forcing. Observational factors can likewise affect the reported climate history. Changes in climate elements have been detected, but parallel efforts at attribution are necessary to properly interpret the measurements, and provide the consistency desired by scientists and the remainder of the public. All of the above factors converge in the region's most prominent climate narrative, the ongoing Colorado River drought and its uncertain outcome.

Thermoregulation of alpacas bred in Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mattiello, Silvana; Formis, Elena; Barbieri, Sara

2011-03-01

The present study monitored daily and seasonal variations of rectal temperature in response to different environmental temperatures in alpacas bred in the Italian Apennines at 300 m a.s.l. In each season, the rectal temperature of 33 clinically healthy alpacas was measured three times/day (morning, midday, afternoon). Ambient temperatures were also recorded. Rectal temperatures ranged from a minimum value of 35.1 to a maximum of 39.4°C, with a maximum daily thermal excursion (ΔTrec) of 3.2°C. Temperatures increased throughout the day, with highly significant differences recorded in both young and adult animals between all the time bands ( P < 0.001). These differences were particularly dramatic for adults in summer, when the mean rectal temperature in the morning was 36.3 ± 0.13°C, probably as a consequence of recent shearing. Significant ΔTrec differences were recorded depending on the season in both young and adult animals ( P < 0.001), with the highest ΔTrec values recorded in summer (although the highest daily ambient excursion value was recorded in winter). In conclusion, similarly to alpacas bred in their natural environment, alpacas bred in Italy show a wide thermal neutrality zone, which is probably an adaptive response, that allows the animals to save energy. In the Italian Apennines, in order to prevent situations of hypothermia, with possible detrimental effects on alpacas' health and welfare, shearing should be carried out only in warm seasons.

Evidence for early postglacial warming in Mount Field National Park, Tasmania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rees, Andrew B. H.; Cwynar, Les C.

2010-02-01

Situated between the Western Pacific Warm Pool to the north and Antarctica to the south, Tasmania is an ideal location to study both postglacial and Holocene paleoclimates. Few well-dated, quantitative temperature reconstructions exist for the region so that important questions about the occurrence and magnitude of events, such as the Antarctic Cold Reversal and Younger Dryas, in Tasmania remain unanswered. Here, we provide chironomid-based reconstructions of temperature of the warmest quarter (TWARM) for two small subalpine lakes, Eagle and Platypus Tarns, Mount Field National Park. Shortly after deglaciation, TWARM reached modern values by approximately 15 000 cal a BP and remained high until 13 000 cal a BP after which temperatures began to cool steadily, reaching a minimum by 11 100-10 000 cal a BP. These results are consistent with sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions from south of Tasmania but are in stark contrast to temperature inferences drawn from vegetation reconstructions based on pollen data that indicate cool initial temperatures followed by a broad warm period between 11 600-6800 cal a BP (10 000-6000 14C a BP). The chironomid record broadly matches the summer insolation curve whereas the vegetation record and associated climate inferences mirror winter insolation. The Antarctic Cold Reversal and Younger Dryas cold events are not evident in the chironomid-inferred temperatures, but the Antarctic Cold Reversal is evident in the loss-on-ignition curves.

Climatic Implications of the Observed Temperature Dependence of the Liquid Water Path of Low Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DelGenio, Anthony

1999-01-01

The uncertainty in the global climate sensitivity to an equilibrium doubling of carbon dioxide is often stated to be 1.5-4.5 K, largely due to uncertainties in cloud feedbacks. The lower end of this range is based on the assumption or prediction in some GCMs that cloud liquid water behaves adiabatically, thus implying that cloud optical thickness will increase in a warming climate if the physical thickness of clouds is invariant. Satellite observations of low-level cloud optical thickness and liquid water path have challenged this assumption, however, at low and middle latitudes. We attempt to explain the satellite results using four years of surface remote sensing data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) Cloud And Radiation Testbed (CART) site in the Southern Great Plains. We find that low cloud liquid water path is insensitive to temperature in winter but strongly decreases with temperature in summer. The latter occurs because surface relative humidity decreases with warming, causing cloud base to rise and clouds to geometrically thin. Meanwhile, inferred liquid water contents hardly vary with temperature, suggesting entrainment depletion. Physically, the temperature dependence appears to represent a transition from higher probabilities of stratified boundary layers at cold temperatures to a higher incidence of convective boundary layers at warm temperatures. The combination of our results and the earlier satellite findings imply that the minimum climate sensitivity should be revised upward from 1.5 K.

Abrupt Decline in the Arctic Winter Sea Ice Cover

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comiso, Josefino C.

2007-01-01

Maximum ice extents in the Arctic in 2005 and 2006 have been observed to be significantly lower (by about 6%) than the average of those of previous years starting in 1979. Since the winter maxima had been relatively stable with the trend being only about -1.5% per decade (compared to about -10% per decade for the perennial ice area), this is a significant development since signals from greenhouse warming are expected to be most prominent in winter. Negative ice anomalies are shown to be dominant in 2005 and 2006 especially in the Arctic basin and correlated with winds and surface temperature anomalies during the same period. Progressively increasing winter temperatures in the central Arctic starting in 1997 is observed with significantly higher rates of increase in 2005 and 2006. The Atlantic Oscillation (AO) indices correlate weakly with the sea ice and surface temperature anomaly data but may explain the recent shift in the perennial ice cover towards the western region. Results suggest that the trend in winter ice is finally in the process of catching up with that of the summer ice cover.

A long-term assessment of the variability in winter use of dense conifer cover by female white-tailed deer.

PubMed

Delgiudice, Glenn D; Fieberg, John R; Sampson, Barry A

2013-01-01

Long-term studies allow capture of a wide breadth of environmental variability and a broader context within which to maximize our understanding of relationships to specific aspects of wildlife behavior. The goal of our study was to improve our understanding of the biological value of dense conifer cover to deer on winter range relative to snow depth and ambient temperature. We examined variation among deer in their use of dense conifer cover during a 12-year study period as potentially influenced by winter severity and cover availability. Female deer were fitted with a mixture of very high frequency (VHF, n = 267) and Global Positioning System (GPS, n = 24) collars for monitoring use of specific cover types at the population and individual levels, respectively. We developed habitat composites for four study sites. We fit multinomial response models to VHF (daytime) data to describe population-level use patterns as a function of snow depth, ambient temperature, and cover availability. To develop alternative hypotheses regarding expected spatio-temporal patterns in the use of dense conifer cover, we considered two sets of competing sub-hypotheses. The first set addressed whether or not dense conifer cover was limiting on the four study sites. The second set considered four alternative sub-hypotheses regarding the potential influence of snow depth and ambient temperature on space use patterns. Deer use of dense conifer cover increased the most with increasing snow depth and most abruptly on the two sites where it was most available, suggestive of an energy conservation strategy. Deer use of dense cover decreased the most with decreasing temperatures on the sites where it was most available. At all four sites deer made greater daytime use (55 to >80% probability of use) of open vegetation types at the lowest daily minimum temperatures indicating the importance of thermal benefits afforded from increased exposure to solar radiation. Date-time plots of GPS data (24 hr) allowed us to explore individual diurnal and seasonal patterns of habitat use relative to changes in snow depth. There was significant among-animal variability in their propensity to be found in three density classes of conifer cover and other open types, but little difference between diurnal and nocturnal patterns of habitat use. Consistent with our findings reported elsewhere that snow depth has a greater impact on deer survival than ambient temperature, herein our population-level results highlight the importance of dense conifer cover as snow shelter rather than thermal cover. Collectively, our findings suggest that maximizing availability of dense conifer cover in an energetically beneficial arrangement with quality feeding sites should be a prominent component of habitat management for deer.

A Long-Term Assessment of the Variability in Winter Use of Dense Conifer Cover by Female White-Tailed Deer

PubMed Central

DelGiudice, Glenn D.; Fieberg, John R.; Sampson, Barry A.

2013-01-01

Backgound Long-term studies allow capture of a wide breadth of environmental variability and a broader context within which to maximize our understanding of relationships to specific aspects of wildlife behavior. The goal of our study was to improve our understanding of the biological value of dense conifer cover to deer on winter range relative to snow depth and ambient temperature. Methodology/Principal Findings We examined variation among deer in their use of dense conifer cover during a 12-year study period as potentially influenced by winter severity and cover availability. Female deer were fitted with a mixture of very high frequency (VHF, n = 267) and Global Positioning System (GPS, n = 24) collars for monitoring use of specific cover types at the population and individual levels, respectively. We developed habitat composites for four study sites. We fit multinomial response models to VHF (daytime) data to describe population-level use patterns as a function of snow depth, ambient temperature, and cover availability. To develop alternative hypotheses regarding expected spatio-temporal patterns in the use of dense conifer cover, we considered two sets of competing sub-hypotheses. The first set addressed whether or not dense conifer cover was limiting on the four study sites. The second set considered four alternative sub-hypotheses regarding the potential influence of snow depth and ambient temperature on space use patterns. Deer use of dense conifer cover increased the most with increasing snow depth and most abruptly on the two sites where it was most available, suggestive of an energy conservation strategy. Deer use of dense cover decreased the most with decreasing temperatures on the sites where it was most available. At all four sites deer made greater daytime use (55 to >80% probability of use) of open vegetation types at the lowest daily minimum temperatures indicating the importance of thermal benefits afforded from increased exposure to solar radiation. Date-time plots of GPS data (24 hr) allowed us to explore individual diurnal and seasonal patterns of habitat use relative to changes in snow depth. There was significant among-animal variability in their propensity to be found in three density classes of conifer cover and other open types, but little difference between diurnal and nocturnal patterns of habitat use. Conclusions/Significance Consistent with our findings reported elsewhere that snow depth has a greater impact on deer survival than ambient temperature, herein our population-level results highlight the importance of dense conifer cover as snow shelter rather than thermal cover. Collectively, our findings suggest that maximizing availability of dense conifer cover in an energetically beneficial arrangement with quality feeding sites should be a prominent component of habitat management for deer. PMID:23785421

Establishing a Water Resources Resilience Baseline for Mexico City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behzadi, F.; Ray, P. A.

2017-12-01

There is a growing concern for the vulnerability of the Mexico City water system to shocks, and the capacity of the system to accommodate climate and demographic change. This study presents a coarse-resolution, lumped model of the water system of Mexico City as a whole, designed to identify system-wide imbalances, and opportunities for large-scale improvements in city-wide resilience through investments in water imports, exports, and storage. In order to investigate the impact of climate change in Mexico City, the annual and monthly trends of precipitation and temperature at 46 stations near or inside the Mexico City were analyzed. The statistical significance of the trends in rainfall and temperature, both over the entire period of record, and the more recent "climate-change-impacted period" (1970-2015), were determined using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. Results show a statistically significant increasing trend in the annual mean precipitation, mean temperature, and annual maximum daily temperature. However, minimum daily temperature does not appear to be increasing, and might be decreasing. Water management in Mexico City faces particular challenges, where the winter dry season is warming more quickly than the wet summer season. A stress test of Mexico City water system is conducted to identify vulnerabilities to changes in exogenous factors (esp., climate, demographics, land use). Following on the stress test, the relative merits of adaptation options that might improve the system's resilience and sustainability will be assessed.

Response diversity of wild bees to overwintering temperatures.

PubMed

Fründ, Jochen; Zieger, Sarah L; Tscharntke, Teja

2013-12-01

Biodiversity can provide insurance against environmental change, but only if species differ in their response to environmental conditions (response diversity). Wild bees provide pollination services to wild and crop plants, and response diversity might insure this function against changing climate. To experimentally test the hypothesis that bee species differ in their response to increasing winter temperature, we stored cocoons of nine bee species at different temperatures during the winter (1.5-9.5 °C). Bee species differed significantly in their responses (weight loss, weight at emergence and emergence date). The developmental stage during the winter explained some of these differences. Bee species overwintering as adults generally showed decreased weight and earlier emergence with increasing temperature, whereas bee species overwintering in pre-imaginal stages showed weaker or even opposite responses. This means that winter warming will likely affect some bee species negatively by increasing energy expenditure, while others are less sensitive presumably due to different physiology. Likewise, species phenologies will respond differently to winter warming, potentially affecting plant-pollinator interactions. Responses are not independent of current flight periods: bees active in spring will likely show the strongest phenological advances. Taken together, wild bee diversity provides response diversity to climate change, which may be the basis for an insurance effect.

Developmental arrest during embryonic development of the common chameleon (Chamaeleo chamaeleon) in Spain.

PubMed

Andrews, Robin M; Díaz-Paniagua, Carmen; Marco, Adolfo; Portheault, Alexandre

2008-01-01

Embryonic development of the common chameleon, Chamaeleo chamaeleon, was monitored from oviposition to hatching at a field site in southwestern Spain and in the laboratory under five experimental temperature regimes. Embryos were diapausing gastrulae at the time of oviposition; developmental arrest in the field continued as cold torpor during winter. Postarrest development in the field commenced in April, and hatching occurred in August, for a total incubation period of 10.5 mo. In the laboratory, one group of eggs was incubated at a constant warm (26 degrees C) temperature. The remaining treatments simulated field conditions and consisted of initial periods of warm temperature of 0, 27, 46, and 71 d, a subsequent 4-mo period of cold winter (16 degrees C) temperature, and a final period of warm (26 degrees C) temperature. Embryos in the constant warm temperature treatment were in diapause an average of 3 mo, with clutch means ranging from 2 to 4 mo. Hatching among clutches occurred over 2 mo. In contrast, for field and experimental eggs that experienced cold winter conditions, hatching within treatments occurred over 2-14 d; "winter" conditions synchronized development. The length of time between the end of cold conditions and hatching did not differ among treatments; development thus resumed as soon as temperature was suitable regardless of the initial period of warm temperature. Diapause in nature thus insures that embryos remain gastrulae after oviposition despite nest temperatures that may be warm enough to support development.

Winter cold-tolerance thresholds in field-grown Miscanthus hybrid rhizomes.

PubMed

Peixoto, Murilo de Melo; Friesen, Patrick Calvin; Sage, Rowan F

2015-07-01

The cold tolerance of winter-dormant rhizomes was evaluated in diploid, allotriploid, and allotetraploid hybrids of Miscanthus sinensis and Miscanthus sacchariflorus grown in a field setting. Two artificial freezing protocols were tested: one lowered the temperature continuously by 1°C h(-1) to the treatment temperature and another lowered the temperature in stages of 24h each to the treatment temperature. Electrolyte leakage and rhizome sprouting assays after the cold treatment assessed plant and tissue viability. Results from the continuous-cooling trial showed that Miscanthus rhizomes from all genotypes tolerated temperatures as low as -6.5 °C; however, the slower, staged-cooling procedure enabled rhizomes from two diploid lines to survive temperatures as low as -14 °C. Allopolyploid genotypes showed no change in the lethal temperature threshold between the continuous and staged-cooling procedure, indicating that they have little ability to acclimate to subzero temperatures. The results demonstrated that rhizomes from diploid Miscanthus lines have superior cold tolerance that could be exploited to improve performance in more productive polyploid lines. With expected levels of soil insulation, low winter air temperatures should not harm rhizomes of tolerant diploid genotypes of Miscanthus in temperate to sub-boreal climates (up to 60°N); however, the observed winter cold in sub-boreal climates could harm rhizomes of existing polyploid varieties of Miscanthus and thus reduce stand performance. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Experimental Biology.

Seasonal Acclimatization in Summer versus Winter to Changes in the Sweating Response during Passive Heating in Korean Young Adult Men.

PubMed

Lee, Jeong-Beom; Kim, Tae-Wook; Min, Young-Ki; Yang, Hun-Mo

2015-01-01

We investigated the sweating response during passive heating (partial submersion up to the umbilical line in 42±0.5℃ water, 30 min) after summer and winter seasonal acclimatization (SA). Testing was performed in July during the summer, 2011 [summer-SA; temp, 25.6±1.8℃; relative humidity (RH), 82.1±8.2%] and in January during the winter, 2012 (winter-SA; temp, -2.7±2.9℃; RH, 65.0±13.1%) in Cheonan (126°52'N, 33.38'E), Republic of Korea. All experiments were carried out in an automated climatic chamber (temp, 25.0±0.5℃: RH, 60.0±3.0%). Fifteen healthy men (age, 23.4±2.5 years; height, 175.0±5.9 cm; weight, 65.3±6.1 kg) participated in the study. Local sweat onset time was delayed during winter-SA compared to that after summer-SA (p< 0.001). Local sweat volume, whole body sweat volume, and evaporative loss volume decreased significantly after winter-SA compared to those after summer-SA (p<0.001). Changes in basal metabolic rate increased significantly after winter-SA (p< 0.001), and tympanic temperature and mean body temperature were significantly lower after summer-SA (p<0.05). In conclusion, central sudomotor acitivity becomes sensitive to summer-SA and blunt to winter-SA in Rebubic of Korea. These results suggest that the body adjusts its temperature by economically controlling the sweating rate but does not lower the thermal dissipation rate through a more effective evaporation scheme after summer-SA than that after winter-SA.

The effects of wind and temperature on cuticular transpiration of Picea abies and Pinus cembra and their significance in dessication damage at the alpine treeline.

PubMed

Baig, M N; Tranquillini, W

1980-01-01

The importance of high winter winds and plant temperatures as causes of winter desiccation damage at the alpine treeline were studied in the Austrian Alps. Samples of 1- and 2-year twigs of Picea abies and Pinus cembra were collected from the valley bottom (1,000 m a.s.l.), forestline (1,940 m a.s.l.), kampfzone (2.090 m a.s.l.), wind-protected treeline (2,140 m a.s.l.), and wind-exposed treeline (2,140 m a.s.l.). Cuticular transpiration was measured at three different levels of wind speed (4, 10, and 15 ms -1 ) and temperature (15°, 20°, and 25° C). At elevated wind speeds slight increases in water loss were observed, whereas at higher temperatures much greater increases occurred. Studies on winter water relations show a significant decline in the actual moisture content and osmotic potentials of twigs, especially in the kampfzone and at treeline. The roles of high winds and temperatures in depleting the winter water economy and causing desiccation damage in the alpine treeline environment are discussed.

The Unusual Southern Hemisphere Stratosphere Winter of 2002

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newman, Paul A.; Nash, Eric R.

2003-01-01

The southern hemisphere stratospheric winter of 2002 was the most unusual winter yet observed in the southern hemisphere climate record. Temperatures near the edge of the Antarctic polar vortex were considerably warmer than normal over the entire course of the winter. The polar night jet was considerably weaker than normal, and was displaced more poleward than has been observed in previous winters. These record high temperatures and weak jet resulted from a series of wave events that took place over the course of the winter. The first large event occurred on 15 May, and the final warming occurred on 25 October. The propagation of these wave events from the troposphere is diagnosed from time series of Eliassen-Palm flux vectors. The wave events tended to occur irregularly over the course of the winter, and pre-conditioned the polar night jet for the extremely large wave event of 22 September. This large wave event resulted in the first ever observed major stratospheric warming in the southern hemisphere. This wave event split the Antarctic ozone hole. The combined effect of the wave events of the 2002 winter resulted in the smallest ozone hole observed since 1988.

Effects of winter temperatures on gypsy moth egg masses in the Great Lakes region of the United States.

Treesearch

J.A. Andresen; D.G. McCullough; B.E. Potter; C.N. Koller; L.S. Bauer; C. W. Ramm

2001-01-01

Accurate prediction of winter survival of gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) eggs and phenology of egg hatch in spring are strongly dependent on temperature and are critical aspects of gypsy moth management programs. We monitored internal temperatures of egg masses at three heights aboveground level and at the four cardinal aspects on oak tree stems at two different...

Dynamic and thermodynamic impacts of the winter Arctic Oscillation on summer sea ice extent.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, H. S.; Stewart, A.

2017-12-01

Arctic summer sea ice extent exhibits substantial interannual variability, as is highlighted by the remarkable recovery in sea ice extent in 2013 following the record minimum in the summer of 2012. Here, we explore the mechanism via which Arctic Oscillation (AO)-induced ice thickness changes impact summer sea ice, using observations and reanalysis data. A positive AO weakens the basin-scale anticyclonic sea ice drift and decreases the winter ice thickness by 15cm and 10cm in the Eurasian and the Pacific sectors of the Arctic respectively. Three reanalysis datasets show that the (upward) surface heat fluxes are reduced over wide areas of the Arctic, suppressing the ice growth during the positive AO winters. The winter dynamic and thermodynamic thinning preconditions the ice for enhanced radiative forcing via the ice-albedo feedback in late spring-summer, leading to an additional 8-10 cm of thinning over the Pacific sector of the Arctic. Because of these winter AO-induced dynamic and thermodynamics effects, the winter AO explains about 22% (r = -0.48) of the interannual variance of September sea ice extent from year 1980 to 2015.

Winter climate change affects growing-season soil microbial biomass and activity in northern hardwood forests.

PubMed

Durán, Jorge; Morse, Jennifer L; Groffman, Peter M; Campbell, John L; Christenson, Lynn M; Driscoll, Charles T; Fahey, Timothy J; Fisk, Melany C; Mitchell, Myron J; Templer, Pamela H

2014-11-01

Understanding the responses of terrestrial ecosystems to global change remains a major challenge of ecological research. We exploited a natural elevation gradient in a northern hardwood forest to determine how reductions in snow accumulation, expected with climate change, directly affect dynamics of soil winter frost, and indirectly soil microbial biomass and activity during the growing season. Soils from lower elevation plots, which accumulated less snow and experienced more soil temperature variability during the winter (and likely more freeze/thaw events), had less extractable inorganic nitrogen (N), lower rates of microbial N production via potential net N mineralization and nitrification, and higher potential microbial respiration during the growing season. Potential nitrate production rates during the growing season were particularly sensitive to changes in winter snow pack accumulation and winter soil temperature variability, especially in spring. Effects of elevation and winter conditions on N transformation rates differed from those on potential microbial respiration, suggesting that N-related processes might respond differently to winter climate change in northern hardwood forests than C-related processes. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Lysosomal responses to heat-shock of seasonal temperature extremes in Cd-exposed mussels.

PubMed

Múgica, M; Izagirre, U; Marigómez, I

2015-07-01

The present study was aimed at determining the effect of temperature extremes on lysosomal biomarkers in mussels exposed to a model toxic pollutant (Cd) at different seasons. For this purpose, temperature was elevated 10°C (from 12°C to 22°C in winter and from 18°C to 28°C in summer) for a period of 6h (heat-shock) in control and Cd-exposed mussels, and then returned back to initial one. Lysosomal membrane stability and lysosomal structural changes in digestive gland were investigated. In winter, heat-shock reduced the labilisation period (LP) of the lysosomal membrane, especially in Cd-exposed mussels, and provoked transient lysosomal enlargement. LP values recovered after the heat-shock cessation but lysosomal enlargement prevailed in both experimental groups. In summer, heat-shock induced remarkable reduction in LP and lysosomal enlargement (more markedly in Cd-exposed mussels), which recovered within 3 days. Besides, whilst heat-shock effects on LP were practically identical for Cd-exposed mussels in winter and summer, the effects were longer-lasting in summer than in winter for control mussels. Thus, lysosomal responsiveness after heat-shock was higher in summer than in winter but recovery was faster as well, and therefore the consequences of the heat shock seem to be more decisive in winter. In contrast, inter-season differences were attenuated in the presence of Cd. Consequently, mussels seem to be better prepared in summer than in winter to stand short periods of abrupt temperature change; this is, however, compromised when mussels are exposed to pollutants such as Cd. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Winter behavior of bats and the progression of white-nose syndrome in the southeastern United States.

PubMed

Bernard, Riley F; McCracken, Gary F

2017-03-01

Understanding the winter behavior of bats in temperate North America can provide insight into how bats react to perturbations caused by natural disturbances such as weather, human-induced disturbances, or the introduction of disease. This study measured the activity patterns of bats outside of their hibernaculum and asked how this winter activity varied by time, temperature, bat species, body condition, and WNS status. Over the course of three winters (2011-2013), we collected acoustic data and captured bats outside of five hibernacula in Tennessee, United States. During this time, Pseudogymnoascus destructans, the causative agent of white-nose syndrome, became established in hibernacula throughout the region, allowing us to track disease-related changes in the winter behavior of ten bat species. We determined that bats in the southeastern United States were active during winter regardless of disease. We recorded activity outside of hibernacula at temperatures as low as -13°C. Although bat activity was best determined by a combination of variables, the strongest factor was mean daily temperature ( R 2  = .2879, F 1,1450  = 586.2, p  < .0001). Bats that left the hibernacula earlier in evening had lower body condition than those that left 2-4 hr after sunset ( F 7,932  = 7.225, p  < .0001, Tukey HSD, p  < .05). The number of daytime emergences from hibernacula, as determined via acoustic detection, increased the longer a site was P. destructans positive ( F 3,17 808  = 124.48, p  < .0001, Tukey HSD, p  < .05). Through the use of passive acoustic monitoring and monthly captures, we determined that winter activity was driven by both ambient temperature and the presence of P. destructans .

Late Holocene Winter Temperatures in the Eastern Mediterranean and Their Relation to Cultural Changes: The Kocain Cave Record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mert Gokturk, Ozan; Fleitmann, Dominik; Badertscher, Seraina; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Tuysuz, Okan

2015-04-01

Based on the δ13C profile of a stalagmite from the Kocain Cave in southern Turkey, we present a new proxy record of winter temperatures for the Eastern Mediterranean covering the last ~5500 years. In this region precisely-dated and highly-resolved paleoclimate records for the cold season are almost non-existent. The comparison of the most recent part of the Kocain record with meteorological observations reveals that stalagmite δ13C values correlate on decadal scale with the amount of snowfall above the cave, which correlates well with average winter temperatures. More negative δ13C values indicate higher drip rates in the cave due to more efficient infiltration during snowmelt above Kocain Cave, during colder winters. Cold periods in the rest of the record coincide with widespread glacier advances, especially with the ones in the Alps during the Bronze Age - Iron Age transition (from ~1000 BC on) and the late Little Ice Age (~1600 to 1850 AD). This further supports the interpretation of δ13C as a temperature proxy. Although winters during the Medieval Climate Anomaly were not continuously warm in the Eastern Mediterranean, winter warmth in the modern era was matched or exceeded several times in the last ~5700 years, especially during the time of Minoan civilization in Crete (~2700 to 1200 BC). Moreover, we provide evidence for the important role of winter cold and drought in the events leading to the unrest in the 16th century Anatolia during the Ottoman rule. Kocain Cave record brings insights into several climatically-induced historical changes in the Eastern Mediterranean, and has the potential to be a key record in a region with a long and vibrant history.

Could behaviour and not physiological thermal tolerance determine winter survival of aphids in cereal fields?

PubMed

Alford, Lucy; Andrade, Thiago Oliveira; Georges, Romain; Burel, Françoise; van Baaren, Joan

2014-01-01

Traits of physiological thermotolerance are commonly measured in the laboratory as predictors of the field success of ectotherms at unfavourable temperatures (e.g. during harsh winters, heatwaves, or under conditions of predicted global warming). Due to being more complicated to measure, behavioural thermoregulation is less commonly studied, although both physiology and behaviour interact to explain the survival of ectotherms. The aphids Metopolophium dirhodum, Rhopalosiphum padi and Sitobion avenae are commercially important pests of temperate cereal crops. Although coexisting, these species markedly differ in winter success, with R. padi being the most abundant species during cold winters, followed by S. avenae and lastly M. dirhodum. To better understand the thermal physiology and behavioural factors contributing to differential winter success, the lethal temperature (physiological thermotolerance) and the behaviour of aphids in a declining temperature regime (behavioural thermotolerance) of these three species were investigated. Physiological thermotolerance significantly differed between the three species, with R. padi consistently the least cold tolerant and S. avenae the most cold tolerant. However, although the least cold tolerant of the study species, significantly more R. padi remained attached to the host plant at extreme sub-zero temperatures than S. avenae and M. dirhodum. Given the success of anholocyclic R. padi in harsh winters compared to its anholocyclic counterparts, this study illustrates that behavioural differences could be more important than physiological thermotolerance in explaining resistance to extreme temperatures. Furthermore it highlights that there is a danger to studying physiological thermotolerance in isolation when ascertaining risks of ectotherm invasions, the establishment potential of exotic species in glasshouses, or predicting species impacts under climate change scenarios.

Effects of seasonal acclimatization on temperature dependence of cardiac excitability in the roach, Rutilus rutilus.

PubMed

Badr, A; El-Sayed, M F; Vornanen, M

2016-05-15

Temperature sensitivity of electrical excitability is a potential limiting factor for performance level and thermal tolerance of excitable tissues in ectothermic animals. To test whether the rate and rhythm of the heart acclimatize to seasonal temperature changes, thermal sensitivity of cardiac excitation in a eurythermal teleost, the roach (Rutilus rutilus), was examined. Excitability of the heart was determined from in vivo electrocardiograms and in vitro microelectrode recordings of action potentials (APs) from winter and summer roach acclimatized to 4 and 18°C, respectively. Under heat ramps (3°C h(-1)), starting from the acclimatization temperatures of the fish, heart rate increased to maximum values of 78±5 beats min(-1) (at 19.8±0.5°C) and 150±7 beats min(-1) (at 28.1±0.5°C) for winter and summer roach, respectively, and then declined in both groups. Below 20°C, heart rate was significantly higher in winter than in summer roach (P<0.05), indicating positive thermal compensation. Cardiac arrhythmias appeared with rising temperature as missing QRS complexes, increase in variability of heart rate, episodes of atrial tachycardia, ventricular bradycardia and complete cessation of the heartbeat (asystole) in both winter and summer roach. Unlike winter roach, atrial APs of summer roach had a distinct early repolarization phase, which appeared as shorter durations of atrial AP at 10% and 20% repolarization levels in comparison to winter roach (P<0.05). In contrast, seasonal acclimatization had only subtle effects on ventricular AP characteristics. Plasticity of cardiac excitation appears to be necessary for seasonal improvements in performance level and thermal resilience of the roach heart. © 2016. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Cytoskeletal regulation dominates temperature-sensitive proteomic changes of hibernation in forebrain of 13-lined ground squirrels.

PubMed

Hindle, Allyson G; Martin, Sandra L

2013-01-01

13-lined ground squirrels, Ictidomys tridecemlineatus, are obligate hibernators that transition annually between summer homeothermy and winter heterothermy - wherein they exploit episodic torpor bouts. Despite cerebral ischemia during torpor and rapid reperfusion during arousal, hibernator brains resist damage and the animals emerge neurologically intact each spring. We hypothesized that protein changes in the brain underlie winter neuroprotection. To identify candidate proteins, we applied a sensitive 2D gel electrophoresis method to quantify protein differences among forebrain extracts prepared from ground squirrels in two summer, four winter and fall transition states. Proteins that differed among groups were identified using LC-MS/MS. Only 84 protein spots varied significantly among the defined states of hibernation. Protein changes in the forebrain proteome fell largely into two reciprocal patterns with a strong body temperature dependence. The importance of body temperature was tested in animals from the fall; these fall animals use torpor sporadically with body temperatures mirroring ambient temperatures between 4 and 21°C as they navigate the transition between summer homeothermy and winter heterothermy. Unlike cold-torpid fall ground squirrels, warm-torpid individuals strongly resembled the homeotherms, indicating that the changes observed in torpid hibernators are defined by body temperature, not torpor per se. Metabolic enzymes were largely unchanged despite varied metabolic activity across annual and torpor-arousal cycles. Instead, the majority of the observed changes were cytoskeletal proteins and their regulators. While cytoskeletal structural proteins tended to differ seasonally, i.e., between summer homeothermy and winter heterothermy, their regulatory proteins were more strongly affected by body temperature. Changes in the abundance of various isoforms of the microtubule assembly and disassembly regulatory proteins dihydropyrimidinase-related protein and stathmin suggested mechanisms for rapid cytoskeletal reorganization on return to euthermy during torpor-arousal cycles.

Cytoskeletal Regulation Dominates Temperature-Sensitive Proteomic Changes of Hibernation in Forebrain of 13-Lined Ground Squirrels

PubMed Central

Hindle, Allyson G.; Martin, Sandra L.

2013-01-01

13-lined ground squirrels, Ictidomys tridecemlineatus, are obligate hibernators that transition annually between summer homeothermy and winter heterothermy – wherein they exploit episodic torpor bouts. Despite cerebral ischemia during torpor and rapid reperfusion during arousal, hibernator brains resist damage and the animals emerge neurologically intact each spring. We hypothesized that protein changes in the brain underlie winter neuroprotection. To identify candidate proteins, we applied a sensitive 2D gel electrophoresis method to quantify protein differences among forebrain extracts prepared from ground squirrels in two summer, four winter and fall transition states. Proteins that differed among groups were identified using LC-MS/MS. Only 84 protein spots varied significantly among the defined states of hibernation. Protein changes in the forebrain proteome fell largely into two reciprocal patterns with a strong body temperature dependence. The importance of body temperature was tested in animals from the fall; these fall animals use torpor sporadically with body temperatures mirroring ambient temperatures between 4 and 21°C as they navigate the transition between summer homeothermy and winter heterothermy. Unlike cold-torpid fall ground squirrels, warm-torpid individuals strongly resembled the homeotherms, indicating that the changes observed in torpid hibernators are defined by body temperature, not torpor per se. Metabolic enzymes were largely unchanged despite varied metabolic activity across annual and torpor-arousal cycles. Instead, the majority of the observed changes were cytoskeletal proteins and their regulators. While cytoskeletal structural proteins tended to differ seasonally, i.e., between summer homeothermy and winter heterothermy, their regulatory proteins were more strongly affected by body temperature. Changes in the abundance of various isoforms of the microtubule assembly and disassembly regulatory proteins dihydropyrimidinase-related protein and stathmin suggested mechanisms for rapid cytoskeletal reorganization on return to euthermy during torpor-arousal cycles. PMID:23951209

The Structure and Dynamics of Titan's Middle Atmosphere and Troposphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Flasar, F.M.; Achterberg, R.K.; Schinder, P.J.

2009-01-01

Titan, after Venus, is the second example in the solar system of an atmosphere with a global cyclostrophic circulation. The origin and maintenance of these superrotating atmospheres is not well understood, but Titan has a strong seasonal modulation in the middle atmosphere, and the seasonal changes in the winds may offer clues. The pole in winter and early spring is characterized by temperatures 20-30 K cooler at 140-170 km than those at low latitudes, and strong circumpolar winds as high as 190 m/s at 200- 250 km. At these levels the polar region is characterized by enhanced concentrations of several organic gases, and also detectable condensates. All this suggests that the polar vortex provides a mixing barrier between winter polar and lower-latitude air masses, analogous to the polar ozone holes on Earth. Because the concentrations of organic gases increase with altitude in the middle atmosphere, the observed enhancements suggest subsidence over the winter pole. Consistent with this are the observed temperatures approximately 200 K at the winter-polar stratopause (280 km), making it the warmest part of the atmosphere. The warm stratopause likely results from adiabatic heating associated with the subsidence. Recent observations in late northern winter and early spring indicate that the warm anomaly at the winter-polar stratopause is weakening;. In contrast to the middle atmosphere, latitude contrasts in tropospheric temperatures are muted. During the northern winter season, they were approximately 5 K at the tropopause and 3 K or less near the surface, being coldest at high northern latitudes. This is understandable in terms of the long radiative relaxation times in the troposphere, compared to times that are much shorter than a season in the upper stratosphere and higher. Curiously, the transition between the small meridional contrast (and presumably seasonal variations) in temperatures observed in the troposphere and the large variations observed at higher altitudes occurs abruptly above 80 km. Here the temperatures in the lower stratosphere, generally increasing with altitude, exhibit a sudden drop with increasing altitude at high northern latitudes, producing the contrast between low and high northern winter latitudes in the upper stratosphere described above. While the radiative relaxation time associated with infrared gaseous coolants decreases with altitude in the stratosphere, the abrupt transition suggests the presence of an optically thick condensate at thermal-infrared wavelengths. Near the surface, temperature lapse rates are adiabatic over the lowest 2 km, with the suggestion of a nocturnal stable inversion over the lowest 200 m in radio-occultation soundings near the morning terminator. At mid and high latitudes in both winter and summer hemispheres, the profiles are more statically stable (i.e., subadiabatic). This is most pronounced in the winter hemisphere.

Southern Hemisphere humpback whales wintering off Central America: insights from water temperature into the longest mammalian migration.

PubMed

Rasmussen, Kristin; Palacios, Daniel M; Calambokidis, John; Saborío, Marco T; Dalla Rosa, Luciano; Secchi, Eduardo R; Steiger, Gretchen H; Allen, Judith M; Stone, Gregory S

2007-06-22

We report on a wintering area off the Pacific coast of Central America for humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) migrating from feeding areas off Antarctica. We document seven individuals, including a mother/calf pair, that made this migration (approx. 8300km), the longest movement undertaken by any mammal. Whales were observed as far north as 11 degrees N off Costa Rica, in an area also used by a boreal population during the opposite winter season, resulting in unique spatial overlap between Northern and Southern Hemisphere populations. The occurrence of such a northerly wintering area is coincident with the development of an equatorial tongue of cold water in the eastern South Pacific, a pattern that is repeated in the eastern South Atlantic. A survey of location and water temperature at the wintering areas worldwide indicates that they are found in warm waters (21.1-28.3 degrees C), irrespective of latitude. We contend that while availability of suitable reproductive habitat in the wintering areas is important at the fine scale, water temperature influences whale distribution at the basin scale. Calf development in warm water may lead to larger adult size and increased reproductive success, a strategy that supports the energy conservation hypothesis as a reason for migration.

Effect of the Environmental Stimuli upon the Human Body in Winter Outdoor Thermal Environment

PubMed Central

Kurazumi, Yoshihito; Kondo, Emi; Ishii, Jin; Sakoi, Tomonori; Fukagawa, Kenta; Bolashikov, Zhecho Dimitrov; Tsuchikawa, Tadahiro; Matsubara, Naoki; Horikoshi, Tetsumi

2013-01-01

In order to manage the outdoor thermal environment with regard to human health and the environmental impact of waste heat, quantitative evaluations are indispensable. It is necessary to use a thermal environment evaluation index. The purpose of this paper is to clarify the relationship between the psychological thermal responses of the human body and winter outdoor thermal environment variables. Subjective experiments were conducted in the winter outdoor environment. Environmental factors and human psychological responses were measured. The relationship between the psychological thermal responses of the human body and the outdoor thermal environment index ETFe (enhanced conduction-corrected modified effective temperature) in winter was shown. The variables which influence the thermal sensation vote of the human body are air temperature, long-wave thermal radiation and short-wave solar radiation. The variables that influence the thermal comfort vote of the human body are air temperature, humidity, short-wave solar radiation, long-wave thermal radiation, and heat conduction. Short-wave solar radiation, and heat conduction are among the winter outdoor thermal environment variables that affect psychological responses to heat. The use of thermal environment evaluation indices that comprise short-wave solar radiation and heat conduction in winter outdoor spaces is a valid approach. PMID:23861691

Inter-annual Variability of Snowfall in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, L.

2016-12-01

Winter snowfall, particularly lake-effect snowfall, impacts all aspects of Michigan life in the wintertime, from motorsports and tourism to impacting the day-to-day lives of residents. Understanding the inter-annual variability of winter snowfall will provide sound basis for local community safety management and improve weather forecasting. This study attempts to understand the trend in winter snowfall and the influencing factors of winter snowfall variability in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan (LPM) using station snowfall measurements and statistical analysis. Our study demonstrates that snowfall has significantly increased from 1932 to 2015. Correlation analysis suggests that regionally average air temperatures have a strong negative relationship with snowfall in LPM. On average, approximately 27% of inter-annual variability in snowfall can be explained by regionally average air temperatures. ENSO events are also negatively related to snowfall in LPM and can explain 8% of inter-annual variability. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) does not have strong influence on snowfall. Composite analysis demonstrates that on annual basis, more winter snowfall occurs during the years with higher maximum ice cover (MIC) than during the years with lower MIC in Lake Michigan. Higher MIC is often associated with lower air temperatures which are negatively related to winter snowfall. This study could provide insight on future snow related climate model improvement and weather forecasting.

Lake Stability and Winter-Spring Transitions: Decoupled Ice Duration and Winter Stratification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daly, J.; Dana, S.; Neal, B.

2016-12-01

Ice-out is an important historical record demonstrating the impact of warmer air temperatures on lake ice. To better understand regional differences in ice-out trends, to characterize the thermal dynamics of smaller mountain lakes, and to develop baseline data for Maine's high elevations landscapes, sub-hourly water temperatures have been collected in over a dozen of Maine's mountain lakes since 2010. Both surface water and hypolimnion temperature data are recorded year-round, facilitating the determination of ice-in, ice-out, and the duration of winter stratification. The multi-year record from sites across as 250 km transect allows us to compare spatial variability related to lake morphometry and location with inter-annual variability related to local weather. All of the study lakes are large enough to stratify during the summer and mix extensively during the fall. Most years, our data show that the onset of winter stratification is nearly synchronous across the study area and is associated with cold air temperatures. Winter stratification can begin days to weeks before ice-in; the timing of ice-in shows more variability, with both elevation and basin aspect influencing the timing. Ice-out shows both the anticipated spatial and interannual variability; some years there is strong coherence between locations while other years show high variability, possibly a function of differences in snowpack. Ice-out is not always immediately followed by the end of winter stratification, there is sometimes a lag of days to weeks before the lakes mix. If the warm temperatures that lead to ice-out are followed by calm days without significant wind, the surface of some lakes begins to warm quickly maintaining the density difference and prolonging winter stratification. The longer the lag time, the stronger the density difference becomes which may also result in a very brief period of mixing in the spring prior to set-up of summer stratification. This year's El Niño event resulted in very late ice-in, leading to an unusually short ice duration period at most sites. However, ice-out for these sites was within the range observed previous years and there may not be a significant impact on summer water temperatures.

Weakening of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex by Arctic Sea-Ice Loss

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Baek-Min; Son, Seok-Woo; Min, Seung-Ki

2014-09-02

Successive cold winters of severely low temperatures in recent years have had critical social and economic impacts on the mid-latitude continents in the Northern Hemisphere. Although these cold winters are thought to be partly driven by dramatic losses of Arctic sea ice, the mechanism that links sea ice loss to cold winters remains a subject of debate. Here, by conducting observational analyses and model experiments, we show how Arctic sea ice loss and cold winters in extra-polar regions are dynamically connected through the polar stratosphere. We find that decreased sea ice cover during early winter months (November-December), especially over themore » Barents-Kara seas, enhance the upward propagation of planetary-scale waves with wavenumbers of 1 and 2, subsequently weakening the stratospheric polar vortex in mid-winter (January- February). The weakened polar vortex preferentially induces a negative phase of Arctic Oscillation at the surface, resulting in low temperatures in mid-latitudes.« less

El Niño-Southern Oscillation Impacts on Winter Vegetable Production in Florida*.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, James W.; Jones, James W.; Kiker, Clyde F.; Hodges, Alan W.

1999-01-01

Florida's mild winters allow the state to play a vital role in supplying fresh vegetables for U.S. consumers. Producers also benefit from premium prices when low temperatures prevent production in most of the country. This study characterizes the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Florida vegetable industry using statistical analysis of the response of historical crop (yield, prices, production, and value) and weather variables (freeze hazard, temperatures, rainfall, and solar radiation) to ENSO phase and its interaction with location and time of year. Annual mean yields showed little evidence of response to ENSO phase and its interaction with location. ENSO phase and season interacted to influence quarterly yields, prices, production, and value. Yields (tomato, bell pepper, sweet corn, and snap bean) were lower and prices (bell pepper and snap bean) were higher in El Niño than in neutral or La Niña winters. Production and value of tomatoes were higher in La Niña winters. The yield response can be explained by increased rainfall, reduced daily maximum temperatures, and reduced solar radiation in El Niño winters. Yield and production of winter vegetables appeared to be less responsive to ENSO phase after 1980; for tomato and bell pepper, this may be due to improvements in production technology that mitigate problems associated with excess rainfall. Winter yield and price responses to El Niño events have important implications for both producers and consumers of winter vegetables, and suggest opportunities for further research.

'Downward control' of the mean meridional circulation and temperature distribution of the polar winter stratosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garcia, Rolando R.; Boville, Byron A.

1994-01-01

According to the 'downward control' principle, the extratropical mean vertical velocity on a given pressure level is approximately proportional to the meridional gradient of the vertically integrated zonal force per unit mass exerted by waves above that level. In this paper, a simple numerical model that includes parameterizations of both planetary and gravity wave breaking is used to explore the influence of gravity wave breaking in the mesosphere on the mean meridional circulation and temperature distribution at lower levels in the polar winter stratosphere. The results of these calculations suggest that gravity wave drag in the mesosphere can affect the state of the polar winter stratosphere down to altitudes below 30 km. The effect is most important when planetary wave driving is relatively weak: that is, during southern winter and in early northern winter. In southern winter, downwelling weakens by a factor of 2 near the stratospause and by 20% at 30 km when gravity wave drag is not included in the calculations. As a consequence, temperatures decrease considerably throughout the polar winter stratosphere (over 20 K above 40 km and as much as 8 K at 30 km, where the effect is enhanced by the long radiative relaxation timescale). The polar winter states obtained when gravity wave drag is omitted in this simple model resemble the results of simulations with some general circulation models and suggest that some of the shortcomings of the latter may be due to a deficit in mesospheric momentum deposition by small-scale gravity waves.

Ecological principles: climate, physiography, soil, and vegetation

Treesearch

George R. Parker; George T. Weaver

1989-01-01

The central hardwood region is a land of transitions in climate, physiography, soils, plants, and animals. Winter temperature and drought are the two most important climatic variables operating on plants and animals. Occasional severe periods of low winter temperatures in the northern half of the region restrict the northern occurrence of many plant and animal species...

Decision-relevant evaluation of climate models: A case study of chill hours in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jagannathan, K. A.; Jones, A. D.; Kerr, A. C.

2017-12-01

The past decade has seen a proliferation of different climate datasets with over 60 climate models currently in use. Comparative evaluation and validation of models can assist practitioners chose the most appropriate models for adaptation planning. However, such assessments are usually conducted for `climate metrics' such as seasonal temperature, while sectoral decisions are often based on `decision-relevant outcome metrics' such as growing degree days or chill hours. Since climate models predict different metrics with varying skill, the goal of this research is to conduct a bottom-up evaluation of model skill for `outcome-based' metrics. Using chill hours (number of hours in winter months where temperature is lesser than 45 deg F) in Fresno, CA as a case, we assess how well different GCMs predict the historical mean and slope of chill hours, and whether and to what extent projections differ based on model selection. We then compare our results with other climate-based evaluations of the region, to identify similarities and differences. For the model skill evaluation, historically observed chill hours were compared with simulations from 27 GCMs (and multiple ensembles). Model skill scores were generated based on a statistical hypothesis test of the comparative assessment. Future projections from RCP 8.5 runs were evaluated, and a simple bias correction was also conducted. Our analysis indicates that model skill in predicting chill hour slope is dependent on its skill in predicting mean chill hours, which results from the non-linear nature of the chill metric. However, there was no clear relationship between the models that performed well for the chill hour metric and those that performed well in other temperature-based evaluations (such winter minimum temperature or diurnal temperature range). Further, contrary to conclusions from other studies, we also found that the multi-model mean or large ensemble mean results may not always be most appropriate for this outcome metric. Our assessment sheds light on key differences between global versus local skill, and broad versus specific skill of climate models, highlighting that decision-relevant model evaluation may be crucial for providing practitioners with the best available climate information for their specific needs.

Can Winter-Active Bumblebees Survive the Cold? Assessing the Cold Tolerance of Bombus terrestris audax and the Effects of Pollen Feeding

PubMed Central

Owen, Emily L.; Bale, Jeffrey S.; Hayward, Scott A. L.

2013-01-01

There is now considerable evidence that climate change is disrupting the phenology of key pollinator species. The recently reported UK winter activity of the bumblebee Bombus terrestris brings a novel set of thermal challenges to bumblebee workers that would typically only be exposed to summer conditions. Here we assess the ability of workers to survive acute and chronic cold stress (via lower lethal temperatures and lower lethal times at 0°C), the capacity for rapid cold hardening (RCH) and the influence of diet (pollen versus nectar consumption) on supercooling points (SCP). Comparisons are made with chronic cold stress indices and SCPs in queen bumblebees. Results showed worker bees were able to survive acute temperatures likely to be experienced in a mild winter, with queens significantly more tolerant to chronic cold temperature stress. The first evidence of RCH in any Hymenoptera is shown. In addition, dietary manipulation indicated the consumption of pollen significantly increased SCP temperature. These results are discussed in the light of winter active bumblebees and climate change. PMID:24224036

Responses of bluegills and black crappies to dissolved oxygen, temperature, and current in backwater lakes of the upper Mississippi River during winter

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knights, B.C.; Johnson, B.L.; Sandheinrich, M.B.

1995-01-01

We conducted a radiotelemetry study to examine the effects of dissolved oxygen (DO), water temperature, and current velocity on winter habitat selection by bluegills Lepomis macrochirus and black crappies Pomoxis nigromaculatus in the Finger Lakes backwater complex, Pool 5, on the upper Mississippi River. When DO was above 2 mg/L, both species selected areas with water temperature greater than 1 degree C and undetectable current. As dissolved oxygen concentrations fell below 2 mg/L, fish moved to areas with higher DO, despite water temperatures of 1 degree C and lower and current velocities of 1 cm/s. Areas with water temperature less than 1 degree C and current velocity greater than 1 cm/s were avoided. To incorporate the winter habitat requirements of bluegills and black crappies into habitat restoration projects, we recommend designs that allow the inflow of oxygenated water to maintain adequate DO without substantially decreasing temperature and increasing current velocity.

A newly developed container for safe, easy, and cost-effective overnight transportation of tissues and organs by electrically keeping tissue or organ temperature at 3 to 6°C.

PubMed

Ohkawara, H; Kitagawa, T; Fukushima, N; Ito, T; Sawa, Y; Yoshimine, T

2012-05-01

As there is only one skin procurement organization in Japan the Japan Skin Bank Network (JSBN), all skin grafts procured in Japan are sent by a commercialized delivery system. Preliminarily, bottles containing saline were transported in a cardboard box using a so-called "cooled home delivery service" using a truck with a refrigerated cargo container. During transportation the temperature in the cardboard box increased to 18°C in summer and decreased to -5°C in winter. For these reasons, we investigated whether a newly developed container "Medi Cube" would be useful to transport skin grafts. Four bottles with a capacity of 300 mL containing 150 mL of saline in a Medi Cube container were transported from Osaka to the JSBN in Tokyo between 4 PM and 10 AM using a commercialized cooled home delivery service. Two bottles were transported in a Medi Cube container without phase change materials (PCM) in winter and summer, respectively. Another two bottles were transported in the Medi Cube with PCMs in winter. The temperatures inside saline, inside a transportation container, and outside the container, and air temperature were monitored continuously with a recordable thermometer. The temperatures inside saline and inside a Medi Cube container were maintained between 3 and 6°C, even when the temperature outside the container increased during parking. The temperature inside a Medi Cube container without PCM decreased to -3°C when the inside of the cargo container was overcooled in winter. However, the temperatures inside saline and inside a Medi Cube container with PCM were between 3 and 6°C, even when the temperature outside the container decreased to below 0°C in winter. A Medi Cube container with PCM provided a safe, easy, and cost-effective method for overnight transportation of skin grafts. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hide and go seek with temperature signals of Northeastern US Tree Species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander, M. R.; Pederson, N.; Bishop, D. A.; Pearl, J. K.; Anchukaitis, K. J.

2017-12-01

Improving reconstructions of past climate is vital in providing long-term context for regional climate change. There have been only two published reconstructions of past temperatures in the northeastern U.S. (NEUS) since the 1980s, one based on Picea rubens, and one out in 2017 based upon Chamaecyparis thyoides (Atlantic white cedar; AWC). Because increased species diversity generally improves dendrohydroclimatic reconstructions and both Picea rubens and AWC have limitations as paleoproxies due to land-use and air pollution, we conducted a series of tests to ask, "Does species diversity improve reconstructions of temperature history in the northeastern United States?" The first two tests were performed on AWC and then a network of AWC and Picea rubens. Subsequent tests added groups of species or genera from a network of 230 tree-ring chronologies beginning with those having the strongest relation between warming temperatures and increased growth. PC1 of the AWC test represented 40% of the variance and showed a significant positive relation with winter temperature (r = 0.38). As additional species were included, the "winter temperature PC" accounted for less of the overall variance, ranging from 26% of the variance in test 2 to 5% by test 5. AWC is swamped by the hydroclimatic signal that dominates our network. Populations of species such as Fagus grandifolia, Fraxinus nigra, Juniperus virginiana, Liriodendron tulipifera, Pinus rigida, and Pinus strobus from our network loaded strongest with AWC on the winter temperature PC. Including multiple species accounted for almost 20% more variance in the winter temperature record than AWC alone. Although drought is a dominating influence of tree growth in this region, our results suggest that winter temperatures are recorded within NEUS tree rings. Increasing the species diversity of tree proxies has the potential for improving reconstruction of paleotemperatures in regions lacking latitudinal or altitudinal tree lines, such as those found in the NEUS.

Quantification of seasonal to annual mass balances from glacier surface albedo derived from optical satellite images, application on 30 glaciers in the French Alps for the period 2000-2015.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davaze, Lucas; Rabatel, Antoine; Arnaud, Yves; Sirguey, Pascal; Six, Delphine; Letreguilly, Anne; Dumont, Marie

2017-04-01

Increasing the number of glaciers monitored for surface mass balance is very challenging, especially using laborious methods based on in situ data. Complementary methods are therefore required to quantify the surface mass balance of unmonitored glaciers. The current study relies on the so-called albedo method, based on the analysis of albedo maps retrieved from optical satellite imagery acquired since 2000 by the MODIS sensor, onboard of TERRA satellite. Recent studies performed on single glaciers in the French Alps, the Himalayas or the Southern Alps of New Zealand revealed substantial relationships between summer minimum glacier-wide surface albedo and annual mass balance, because this minimum surface albedo is directly related to accumulation-area ratio and the equilibrium-line altitude. On the basis of 30 glaciers located in the French Alps where annual surface mass balance are available, our study conducted on the period 2000-2015 confirms the robustness and reliability of the relationship between the summer minimum surface albedo and the annual surface mass balance. At the seasonal scale, the integrated summer surface albedo is significantly correlated with the summer mass balance of the six glaciers seasonally surveyed. For the winter season, four of the six glaciers showed a significant correlation when linking the winter surface mass balance and the integrated winter surface albedo, using glacier-dependent thresholds to filter the albedo signal. Sensitivity study on the computed cloud detection algorithm revealed high confidence in retrieved albedo maps. These results are promising to monitor both annual and seasonal glacier-wide surface mass balances of individual glaciers at a regional scale using optical satellite images.

Effect of a Terminated Cover Crop and Aldicarb on Cotton Yield and Meloidogyne incognita Population Density

PubMed Central

Wheeler, T. A.; Leser, J. F.; Keeling, J. W.; Mullinix, B.

2008-01-01

Terminated small grain cover crops are valuable in light textured soils to reduce wind and rain erosion and for protection of young cotton seedlings. A three-year study was conducted to determine the impact of terminated small grain winter cover crops, which are hosts for Meloidogyne incognita, on cotton yield, root galling and nematode midseason population density. The small plot test consisted of the cover treatment as the main plots (winter fallow, oats, rye and wheat) and rate of aldicarb applied in-furrow at-plant (0, 0.59 and 0.84 kg a.i./ha) as subplots in a split-plot design with eight replications, arranged in a randomized complete block design. Roots of 10 cotton plants per plot were examined at approximately 35 days after planting. Root galling was affected by aldicarb rate (9.1, 3.8 and 3.4 galls/root system for 0, 0.59 and 0.84 kg aldicarb/ha), but not by cover crop. Soil samples were collected in mid-July and assayed for nematodes. The winter fallow plots had a lower density of M. incognita second-stage juveniles (J2) (transformed to Log10 (J2 + 1)/500 cm3 soil) than any of the cover crops (0.88, 1.58, 1.67 and 1.75 Log10(J2 + 1)/500 cm3 soil for winter fallow, oats, rye and wheat, respectively). There were also fewer M. incognita eggs at midseason in the winter fallow (3,512, 7,953, 8,262 and 11,392 eggs/500 cm3 soil for winter fallow, oats, rye and wheat, respectively). Yield (kg lint per ha) was increased by application of aldicarb (1,544, 1,710 and 1,697 for 0, 0.59 and 0.84 kg aldicarb/ha), but not by any cover crop treatments. These results were consistent over three years. The soil temperature at 15 cm depth, from when soils reached 18°C to termination of the grass cover crop, averaged 9,588, 7,274 and 1,639 centigrade hours (with a minimum threshold of 10°C), in 2005, 2006 and 2007, respectively. Under these conditions, potential reproduction of M. incognita on the cover crop did not result in a yield penalty. PMID:19259531

Effect of a Terminated Cover Crop and Aldicarb on Cotton Yield and Meloidogyne incognita Population Density.

PubMed

Wheeler, T A; Leser, J F; Keeling, J W; Mullinix, B

2008-06-01

Terminated small grain cover crops are valuable in light textured soils to reduce wind and rain erosion and for protection of young cotton seedlings. A three-year study was conducted to determine the impact of terminated small grain winter cover crops, which are hosts for Meloidogyne incognita, on cotton yield, root galling and nematode midseason population density. The small plot test consisted of the cover treatment as the main plots (winter fallow, oats, rye and wheat) and rate of aldicarb applied in-furrow at-plant (0, 0.59 and 0.84 kg a.i./ha) as subplots in a split-plot design with eight replications, arranged in a randomized complete block design. Roots of 10 cotton plants per plot were examined at approximately 35 days after planting. Root galling was affected by aldicarb rate (9.1, 3.8 and 3.4 galls/root system for 0, 0.59 and 0.84 kg aldicarb/ha), but not by cover crop. Soil samples were collected in mid-July and assayed for nematodes. The winter fallow plots had a lower density of M. incognita second-stage juveniles (J2) (transformed to Log(10) (J2 + 1)/500 cm(3) soil) than any of the cover crops (0.88, 1.58, 1.67 and 1.75 Log(10)(J2 + 1)/500 cm(3) soil for winter fallow, oats, rye and wheat, respectively). There were also fewer M. incognita eggs at midseason in the winter fallow (3,512, 7,953, 8,262 and 11,392 eggs/500 cm(3) soil for winter fallow, oats, rye and wheat, respectively). Yield (kg lint per ha) was increased by application of aldicarb (1,544, 1,710 and 1,697 for 0, 0.59 and 0.84 kg aldicarb/ha), but not by any cover crop treatments. These results were consistent over three years. The soil temperature at 15 cm depth, from when soils reached 18 degrees C to termination of the grass cover crop, averaged 9,588, 7,274 and 1,639 centigrade hours (with a minimum threshold of 10 degrees C), in 2005, 2006 and 2007, respectively. Under these conditions, potential reproduction of M. incognita on the cover crop did not result in a yield penalty.

Time allocation by Greater White-fronted Geese: Influence of diet, energy reserves and predation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ely, Craig R.

1992-01-01

I determined the amount of time Greater White-fronted Geese (Anser albifrons frontalis) allocated to various activities from September to May, 1980-1982 at their primary wintering areas in the Pacific Flyway of North America. The length of time spent on roosts during the day was positively correlated to day length. Geese at roost sites spent the majority of their time sleeping (24-46%), alert (17-40%), walking or swimming (6-24%), and in comfort behaviors (3-25%). The amount of time geese fed each day varied little from early autumn to late spring (4.5-4.9 hr), except during mid-winter when minimum temperatures were below freezing (3.9 hr), and immediately before migration in spring (6.3 hr). The proportion of time devoted to feeding and alert behavior, the two most dominant activities at field sites, varied significantly among seasons and locations. The amount of time geese were actively engaged in foraging each season was more dependent on feeding intensity than the amount of time spent at foraging sites (fields), and varied almost three-fold, from 1.8 hr during late winter to 5.1 hr during late spring. Geese fed in closer proximity to conspecifics, were more frequently disturbed, and spent less time feeding during the hunting season. Exploitation of high energy foods and catabolism of substantial energy reserves probably enabled geese to minimize foraging time during periods of harsh weather and high predation pressure. Seasonal variation in the proportion of time spent feeding corresponded closely to changes in body mass. Greater White-fronted Geese wintering in the Pacific Flyway spent substantially less time feeding than they do in Europe, as geese in California fed primarily on high energy cereal grains, while in Europe they subsist on green vegetation which has relatively less digestible energy than cereal grains.

Using sinuosity to measure the waviness of the extratropical circulation under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, F.; Vavrus, S. J.; Martin, J. E.; Francis, J. A.

2014-12-01

Extreme weather events, such as heat and cold waves, droughts, and floods, have substantial social and economic impacts. Whether these extreme events are related to one of the prominent components of climate change --- Arctic Amplification (AA)--- is controversial. The hypothesis proposed by Francis and Vavrus (2012) is that a reduced meridional temperature gradient owing to AA will cause a weaker and wavier extratropical circulation, which will result in slower progression of weather systems and more atmospheric blocking events. To test this hypothesis we borrow the concept of "sinuosity" from geomorphology to measure the waviness of the boreal extratropical circulation. As applied here, sinuosity is defined as the ratio of the curvilinear length of a circumhemispheric geopotential height contour to the perimeter of its equivalent latitude, where the contour and the equivalent latitude enclose the same area. We use 500hPa daily geopotential heights from NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis and from the CESM climate model's historical and RCP8.5 greenhouse simulations to calculate sinuosity. Observations and simulations exhibit similar annual cycles of sinuosity, with the maximum sinuosity occurring in summer and minimum sinuosity during winter. Although no long-term trend (1948-2013) in sinuosity is observed in winter (DJF) or summer (JJA), a positive linear trend has occurred since the 1980s and accelerated after 1995 at middle latitudes (winter) and high latitudes (summer). The 500hPa zonal wind is found to weaken at latitudes where sinuosity increases. The change of sinuosity and corresponding zonal wind in RCP8.5 simulations is also explored. Our study finds a strong negative correlation between observed daily sinuosity and the daily Arctic Oscillation (AO) index in all seasons. This negative correlation and the tendency of CMIP5 models to simulate a negative AO-like pattern aloft during winter in a warmer climate suggest a trend toward a wavier extratropical atmospheric circulation in the future.

Are the current thresholds, indicators, and time window for cold warning effective enough to protect cardiovascular health?

PubMed

Lin, Shao; Lawrence, Wayne R; Lin, Ziqiang; DiRienzo, Stephen; Lipton, Kevin; Dong, Guang-Hui; Leung, Ricky; Lauper, Ursula; Nasca, Philip; Stuart, Neil

2018-10-15

More extreme cold weather and larger weather variations have raised concerns regarding their effects on public health. Although prior studies assessed the effects of cold air temperature on health, especially mortality, limited studies evaluated wind chill temperatures on morbidity, and health effects under the current cold warning threshold. This study identified the thresholds, lag periods, and best indicators of extreme cold on cardiovascular disease (CVD) by comparing effects of wind chill temperatures and cold air temperatures on CVD emergency department (ED) visits in winter and winter transition months. Information was collected on 662,625 CVD ED visits from statewide hospital discharge dataset in New York State. Meteorological factors, including air temperature, wind speed, and barometric pressure were collected from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. A case-crossover approach was used to assess the extreme cold-CVD relationship in winter (December-February) and transition months (November and March) after controlling for PM 2.5 . Conditional logistic regression models were employed to analyze the association between cold weather factors and CVD ED visits. We observed CVD effects occurred when wind chill temperatures were as high as -3.8 °C (25 °F), warmer than current wind chill warning standard (≤-28.8 °C or ≤-20 °F). Wind chill temperature was a more sensitive indicator of CVD ED visits during winter with temperatures ≤ -3.8 °C (25 °F) with delay effect (lag 6); however, air temperature was better during transition months for temperatures ≤ 7.2 °C (45 °F) at earlier lag days (1-3). Among all CVD subtypes, hypertension ED visit had the strongest negative association with both wind chill temperature and air temperature. This study recommends modifying the current cold warning temperature threshold given larger proportions of CVD cases are occurring at considerably higher temperatures than the current criteria. We also recommend issuing cold warnings in winter transitional months. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Recent climate hiatus revealed dual control by temperature and drought on the stem growth of Mediterranean Quercus ilex.

PubMed

Lempereur, Morine; Limousin, Jean-Marc; Guibal, Frédéric; Ourcival, Jean-Marc; Rambal, Serge; Ruffault, Julien; Mouillot, Florent

2017-01-01

A better understanding of stem growth phenology and its climate drivers would improve projections of the impact of climate change on forest productivity. Under a Mediterranean climate, tree growth is primarily limited by soil water availability during summer, but cold temperatures in winter also prevent tree growth in evergreen forests. In the widespread Mediterranean evergreen tree species Quercus ilex, the duration of stem growth has been shown to predict annual stem increment, and to be limited by winter temperatures on the one hand, and by the summer drought onset on the other hand. We tested how these climatic controls of Q. ilex growth varied with recent climate change by correlating a 40-year tree ring record and a 30-year annual diameter inventory against winter temperature, spring precipitation, and simulated growth duration. Our results showed that growth duration was the best predictor of annual tree growth. We predicted that recent climate changes have resulted in earlier growth onset (-10 days) due to winter warming and earlier growth cessation (-26 days) due to earlier drought onset. These climatic trends partly offset one another, as we observed no significant trend of change in tree growth between 1968 and 2008. A moving-window correlation analysis revealed that in the past, Q. ilex growth was only correlated with water availability, but that since the 2000s, growth suddenly became correlated with winter temperature in addition to spring drought. This change in the climate-growth correlations matches the start of the recent atmospheric warming pause also known as the 'climate hiatus'. The duration of growth of Q. ilex is thus shortened because winter warming has stopped compensating for increasing drought in the last decade. Decoupled trends in precipitation and temperature, a neglected aspect of climate change, might reduce forest productivity through phenological constraints and have more consequences than climate warming alone. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Downturn of the Strong Winter-Warming Trend In Europe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Otterman, Joseph; Atlas, Robert; Bungato, Dennis; Koslowsky, Dirk; Wos, Alojzy; Atlas, Robert (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Surface-air temperatures measured in winter at 3 meteorological stations in central Europe rise substantially for most of the second-half of the 20th century. This means shorter winter, and longer growing season, which has positive implications for regional agriculture. However, these positive trends stopped in winter of 1996, and for the recent 7 years no further climatic amelioration is reported.

Changes in trumpeter swan (Cygnus buccinator) activities from winter to spring in the greater Yellowstone area

Treesearch

John R. Squires; Stanley H. Anderson

1997-01-01

Trumpeter swans (Cygnus buccinator), in the winter, primarily, slept 42% of the time, fed 30%, swam 12%; and preened 7%. Comparisons of swan activities among die periods during the winter indicated they increased feeding throughout the day into night, when they fed at their highest rate. Swans spent more time sleeping as winter temperatures decreased; feeding...

2012/13 abnormal cold winter in Japan associated with Large-scale Atmospheric Circulation and Local Sea Surface Temperature over the Sea of Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ando, Y.; Ogi, M.; Tachibana, Y.

2013-12-01

On Japan, wintertime cold wave has social, economic, psychological and political impacts because of the lack of atomic power stations in the era of post Fukushima world. The colder winter is the more electricity is needed. Wintertime weather of Japan and its prediction has come under the world spotlight. The winter of 2012/13 in Japan was abnormally cold, and such a cold winter has persisted for 3 years. Wintertime climate of Japan is governed by some dominant modes of the large-scale atmospheric circulations. Yasunaka and Hanawa (2008) demonstrated that the two dominant modes - Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Western Pacific (WP) pattern - account for about 65% of the interannual variation of the wintertime mean surface air temperature of Japan. A negative AO brings about cold winter in Japan. In addition, a negative WP also brings about cold winter in Japan. Looking back to the winter of 2012/13, both the negative AO and negative WP continued from October through December. If the previous studies were correct, it would have been extremely very cold from October through December. In fact, in December, in accordance with previous studies, it was colder than normal. Contrary to the expectation, in October and November, it was, however, warmer than normal. This discrepancy signifies that an additional hidden circumstance that heats Japan overwhelms these large-scale atmospheric circulations that cool Japan. In this study, we therefore seek an additional cause of wintertime climate of Japan particularly focusing 2012 as well as the AO and WP. We found that anomalously warm oceanic temperature surrounding Japan overwhelmed influences of the AO or WP. Unlike the inland climate, the island climate can be strongly influenced by surrounding ocean temperature, suggesting that large-scale atmospheric patterns alone do not determine the climate of islands. (a) Time series of a 5-day running mean AO index (blue) as defined by Ogi et al., (2004), who called it the SVNAM index. For reference, the conventional AO index is shown by the gray line. (b) a 5-day running mean WP index, (c) area-averaged Surface Air Temperature anomalies in Japan, (d) Air Temperature anomalies, (e) heat flux anomalies, and (f) Sea Surface Temperature anomalies. The boxed area on the Sea of Japan indicates the area in which the (d)-(f) indexes were calculated.

Data from the 2011 International Piping Plover Census

USGS Publications Warehouse

Elliott-Smith, Elise; Bidwell, Mark; Holland, Amanda E.; Haig, Susan M.

2015-01-01

This report provides results from the 2011 International Census of Piping Plovers (Charadrius melodus). Distribution and abundance data for wintering and breeding Piping Plovers are summarized in tabular format. An appendix provides census data for every site surveyed in every state, province, and island. The 2011 winter census resulted in the observation of 3,973 Piping Plovers. Expanded coverage outside of the United States led to the discovery of more than 1,000 Piping Plovers wintering in the Bahamas. The breeding census detected 2,771 birds in Atlantic Canada and the Plains, Prairies, and Great Lakes regions of the United States and Canada. Combining the census count with the U.S. Atlantic “window census” provides a total minimum estimate of 5,723 breeding birds for the species.

Winter Activity of Coastal Plain Populations of Bat Species Affected by White-Nose Syndrome and Wind Energy Facilities.

PubMed

Grider, John F; Larsen, Angela L; Homyack, Jessica A; Kalcounis-Rueppell, Matina C

2016-01-01

Across the entire distribution of a species, populations may have variable responses to environmental perturbations. Many bat species experience mortality in large portions of their range during hibernation and along migratory paths to and from wintering grounds, from White-nose syndrome (WNS) and wind energy development, respectively. In some areas, warm temperatures may allow bats to remain active through winter, thus decreasing their susceptibility to WNS and/or mortality associated with migration to wintering grounds. These areas could act as a refugia and be important for the persistence of local populations. To determine if warmer temperatures affect bat activity, we compared year-round activity of bat populations in the Coastal Plain and Piedmont of North Carolina, USA, two regions that differ in winter temperature. We established six recording stations, four along a 295-kilometer north-south transect in the Coastal Plain, and two in the Piedmont of North Carolina. We recorded bat activity over two years. We supplemented our recordings with mist-net data. Although bat activity was lower during winter at all sites, the odds of recording a bat during winter were higher at Coastal Plain sites when compared with Piedmont sites. Further, bats in the Piedmont had a lower level of winter activity compared to summer activity than bats in the Coastal Plain that had more similar levels of activity in the winter and summer. We found high bat species richness on the Coastal Plain in winter, with winter-active species including those known to hibernate throughout most of their range and others known to be long distance migrants. In particular, two species impacted by WNS, the northern long-eared bat (Myotis septentrionalis) and tricolored bat (Perimyotis subflavus), were present year round in the Coastal Plain. The tricolored bat was also present year-round in the Piedmont. In the Coastal Plain, the long distance migratory hoary bat (Lasiurus cinereus) was active in the winter but not present during the other seasons, and the long distance migratory silver-haired bat (Lasionycteris noctivagans) was active primarily in the winter, suggesting the Coastal Plain may be an overwintering ground for these two species. We suggest that the winter activity exhibited by populations of bats on the North Carolina Coastal Plain has important conservation implications and these populations should be carefully monitored and afforded protection.

A Study of the Severity of the Midwestern Winters of 1977 and 1978 Using Heating Degree Days Determined from Both Measured and Wind Chill Temperatures.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dare, Patricia M.

1981-07-01

The winters of 1976-77 and 1977-78 were severe by virtually any standard. In this study, heating degree day (NDD) accumulations for these two winters as well as for the 1941-70 normals are examined at 31 National Weather Service stations in Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Ohio, and Kentucky. In addition, a modified heating degree day (MHDD) based on wind chill temperature is accumulated. In both cases, the winter is defined as consisting of the months of December, January, and February. Three-month and one-month accumulations are plotted and analyzed to gain a view of spatial and temporal distributions of both HDD and MUDD. Both parameters are shown to be influenced markedly by the presence of the Great Lakes, an influence that diminishes as an extensive ice cover forms on the lakes. The winter of 1976-77 is found to have greater accumulations of both HDD and MI4DD. A comparative ratio also is calculated in order to give an impression of the extent to which the wind's influence is felt. The ratio values show that for 1976-77 the inclusion of wind data gives the impression of a more intense winter than would be given by temperature data alone. However, the reverse is true for 1977-78; the inclusion of wind data gives the impression of a less intense winter.

Ice Wedges as Winter Climate Archives - New Results from the Northeast Siberian Arctic and Discussion of the Paleoclimatic Value of Ice Wedges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Opel, T.; Meyer, H.; Laepple, T.; Rehfeld, K.; Mollenhauer, G.; Alexander, D.; Murton, J.

2017-12-01

Arctic climate has experienced major changes over the past millennia that are yet not fully understood in terms of external and internal controls, spatial, temporal, and seasonal patterns. The interpretation of stable isotope data in permafrost ice wedges provides unique information on past winter climate, not or not sufficiently captured by other Arctic climate archives. Ice wedges grow in polygonal patterns owing to frost cracking of the frozen ground in winter and frost-crack filling mostly by snowmelt in spring. Their oxygen isotope values are indicative of temperatures in the cold period of the year (meteorological winter and spring). Recently, an ice-wedge record from the Lena River Delta suggested for the first time, that Siberian winter temperatures were warming throughout the Holocene, contradicting most other Arctic paleoclimate reconstructions. As this was based on a single record, the representativity and spatial extent of the reconstructed winter warming signal remained unclear. In this two-part contribution, we first present a new ice-wedge δ18O record from the Oyogos Yar mainland coast (Northeast Siberian Arctic) and then discuss more generally the paleoclimatic value of ice wedges. The new Oyogos Yar ice-wedge record is based on paired stable-isotope and radiocarbon-age data and spans the last two millennia. It confirms the long-term winter warming signal as well as the unprecedented temperature rise in the last decades. This demonstrates that winter warming over the last millennia is a coherent feature in the Northeastern Siberian Arctic, supporting the hypothesis of an insolation-driven seasonal Holocene temperature evolution followed by a strong warming most likely related to anthropogenic forcing. Considering additional ice-wedge data from the Siberian Laptev Sea region we discuss the paleoclimatic value of ice wedges as high-quality winter climate archive. We assess potentials and challenges of this so far rather understudied source of paleoclimate information that remains to be evaluated systematically. In addition, we outline priorities for future ice-wedge research in order to fully exploit the potential of ice wedges for paleoclimate reconstruction, including e.g. better process understanding, dating, and data-model comparison.

Assessment of long-term monthly and seasonal trends of warm (cold), wet (dry) spells in Kansas, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dokoohaki, H.; Anandhi, A.

2013-12-01

A few recent studies have focused on trends in rainfall, temperature, and frost indicators at different temporal scales using centennial weather station data in Kansas; our study supplements this work by assessing the changes in spell indicators in Kansas. These indicators provide the duration between temperature-based (warm and cold) and precipitation-based (wet and dry) spells. For wet (dry) spell calculations, a wet day is defined as a day with precipitation ≥1 mm, and a dry day is defined as one with precipitation ≤1 mm. For warm (cold) spell calculations, a warm day is defined as a day with maximum temperature >90th percentile of daily maximum temperature, and a cold day is defined as a day with minimum temperature <10th percentile of daily minimum temperature. The percentiles are calculated for 1971-2000, and four spell indicators are calculated: Average Wet Spell Length (AWSL), Dry Spell Length (ADSL), Average Warm Spell Days (AWSD) and Average Cold Spell Days (ACSD) are calculated. Data were provided from 23 centennial weather stations across Kansas, and all calculations were done for four time periods (through 1919, 1920-1949, 1950-1979, and 1980-2009). The definitions and software provided by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) were adapted for application to Kansas. The long- and short-term trends in these indices were analyzed at monthly and seasonal timescales. Monthly results indicate that ADSL is decreasing and AWSL is increasing throughout the state. AWSD and ACSD both showed an overall decreasing trend, but AWSD trends were variable during the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. Results of seasonal analysis revealed that the fall season recorded the greatest increasing trend for ACSD and the greatest decreasing trend for AWSD across the whole state and during all time periods. Similarly, the greatest increasing and decreasing trends occurred in winter for AWSL and ADSL, respectively. These variations can be important indicators of climatic change that may not be represented in mean conditions. Detailed geographical and temporal variations of the spell indices also can be beneficial for updating management decisions and providing adaptation recommendations for local and regional agricultural production.

Seasonal dependence of aerosol processing in urban Philadelphia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avery, A. M.; Waring, M. S.; DeCarlo, P. F.

2017-12-01

Urban aerosols pose an important threat to human health due to the conflation of emissions and concentrated population exposed. Winter and summer aerosol and trace gas measurements were taken in downtown Philadelphia in 2016. Measurements included aerosol composition and size with an Aerodyne Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (AMS), particle size distributions with an SMPS, and an aethalometer. Trace gas measurements of O3, NO, CH4, CO, and CO2 were taken concurrently. Sampling in seasonal extremes provided contrast in aerosol and trace gas composition, aerosol processing, and emission factors. Inorganic aerosol components contributed approximately 60% of the submicron aerosol mass, while summertime aerosol composition was roughly 70% organic matter. Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) on the organic aerosol (OA) matrix revealed three factors in common in each season, including an oxygenated organic aerosol (OOA) factor with different temporal behavior in each season. In summertime, OOA varied diurnally with ozone and daytime temperature, but in the wintertime, it was anti-correlated with ozone and temperature, and instead trended with calculated liquid water, indicating a seasonally-dependent processing of organic aerosol in Philadelphia's urban environment. Due to the inorganic dominant winter aerosol, liquid water much higher (2.65 μg/m3) in winter than in summer (1.54 μg/m3). Diurnally varying concentrations of background gas phase species (CH4, CO2) were higher in winter and varied less as a result of boundary layer conditions; ozone was also higher in background in winter than summer. Winter stagnation events with low windspeed showed large buildup of trace gases CH4, CO, CO2, and NO. Traffic related aerosol was also elevated with black carbon and hydrocarbon-like OA (HOA) plumes of each at 3-5 times higher than the winter the average value for each. Winter ratios of HOA to black carbon were significantly higher in the winter than the summer due to lower temperatures. Aerosol compositional differences in winter and summer indicate Philadelphia resident's aerosol exposures vary significantly with season.

Dynamics of planktonic prokaryotes and dissolved carbon in a subtropical coastal lake.

PubMed

Fontes, Maria Luiza S; Tonetta, Denise; Dalpaz, Larissa; Antônio, Regina V; Petrucio, Maurício M

2013-01-01

To understand the dynamics of planktonic prokaryotes in a subtropical lake and its relationship with carbon, we conducted water sampling through four 48-h periods in Peri Lake for 1 year. Planktonic prokaryotes were characterized by the abundance and biomass of heterotrophic bacteria (HB) and of cyanobacteria (coccoid and filamentous cells). During all samplings, we measured wind speed, water temperature (WT), pH, dissolved oxygen (DO), precipitation, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), and carbon dioxide (CO2). DOC was higher in the summer (average = 465 μM - WT = 27°C) and lower in the winter (average = 235 μM - WT = 17°C), with no significant variability throughout the daily cycles. CO2 concentrations presented a different pattern, with a minimum in the warm waters of the summer period (8.31 μM) and a maximum in the spring (37.13 μM). Daily trends were observed for pH, DO, WT, and CO2. At an annual scale, both biological and physical-chemical controls were important regulators of CO2. HB abundance and biomass were higher in the winter sampling (5.60 × 10(9) cells L(-1) and 20.83 μmol C L(-1)) and lower in the summer (1.87 × 10(9) cells L(-1) and 3.95 μmol C L(-1)). Filamentous cyanobacteria (0.23 × 10(8)-0.68 × 10(8) filaments L(-1)) produced up to 167.16 μmol C L(-1) as biomass (during the warmer period), whereas coccoid cyanobacteria contributed only 0.38 μmol C L(-1). Precipitation, temperature, and the biomass of HB were the main regulators of CO2 concentrations. Temperature had a negative effect on the concentration of CO2, which may be indirectly attributed to high heterotroph activity in the autumn and winter periods. DOC was positively correlated with the abundance of total cyanobacteria and negatively with HB. Thus, planktonic prokaryotes have played an important role in the dynamics of both dissolved inorganic and organic carbon in the lake.

Dynamics of Planktonic Prokaryotes and Dissolved Carbon in a Subtropical Coastal Lake

PubMed Central

Fontes, Maria Luiza S.; Tonetta, Denise; Dalpaz, Larissa; Antônio, Regina V.; Petrucio, Maurício M.

2013-01-01

To understand the dynamics of planktonic prokaryotes in a subtropical lake and its relationship with carbon, we conducted water sampling through four 48-h periods in Peri Lake for 1 year. Planktonic prokaryotes were characterized by the abundance and biomass of heterotrophic bacteria (HB) and of cyanobacteria (coccoid and filamentous cells). During all samplings, we measured wind speed, water temperature (WT), pH, dissolved oxygen (DO), precipitation, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), and carbon dioxide (CO2). DOC was higher in the summer (average = 465 μM – WT = 27°C) and lower in the winter (average = 235 μM – WT = 17°C), with no significant variability throughout the daily cycles. CO2 concentrations presented a different pattern, with a minimum in the warm waters of the summer period (8.31 μM) and a maximum in the spring (37.13 μM). Daily trends were observed for pH, DO, WT, and CO2. At an annual scale, both biological and physical-chemical controls were important regulators of CO2. HB abundance and biomass were higher in the winter sampling (5.60 × 109 cells L−1 and 20.83 μmol C L−1) and lower in the summer (1.87 × 109 cells L−1 and 3.95 μmol C L−1). Filamentous cyanobacteria (0.23 × 108–0.68 × 108 filaments L−1) produced up to 167.16 μmol C L−1 as biomass (during the warmer period), whereas coccoid cyanobacteria contributed only 0.38 μmol C L−1. Precipitation, temperature, and the biomass of HB were the main regulators of CO2 concentrations. Temperature had a negative effect on the concentration of CO2, which may be indirectly attributed to high heterotroph activity in the autumn and winter periods. DOC was positively correlated with the abundance of total cyanobacteria and negatively with HB. Thus, planktonic prokaryotes have played an important role in the dynamics of both dissolved inorganic and organic carbon in the lake. PMID:23579926

Seasonal reversal of temperature-moisture response of net carbon exchange of biocrusted soils in a cool desert ecosystem.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tucker, C.; Reed, S.; Howell, A.

2017-12-01

Carbon cycling associated with biological soil crusts, which occur in interspaces between vascular plants in drylands globally, may be an important part of the coupled climate-carbon cycle of the Earth system. A major challenge to understanding CO2 fluxes in these systems is that much of the biotic and biogeochemical activity occurs in the upper few mm of the soil surface layer (i.e., the `mantle of fertility'), which exhibits highly dynamic and difficult to measure temperature and moisture fluctuations. Here, we report data collected in a cool desert ecosystem over one year using a multi-sensor approach to simultaneously measuring temperature and moisture of the biocrust surface layer (0-2 mm), and the deeper soil profile (5-20 cm), concurrent with automated measurement of surface soil CO2 effluxes. Our results illuminate robust relationships between microclimate and field CO2 pulses that have previously been difficult to detect and explain. The temperature of the biocrust surface layer was highly variable, ranging from minimum of -9 °C in winter to maximum of 77 °C in summer with a maximum diurnal range of 61 °C. Temperature cycles were muted deeper in the soil profile. During summer, biocrust and soils were usually hot and dry and CO2 fluxes were tightly coupled to pulse wetting events experienced at the biocrust surface, which consistently resulted in net CO2 efflux (i.e., respiration). In contrast, during the winter, biocrust and soils were usually cold and moist, and there was sustained net CO2 uptake via photosynthesis by biocrust organisms, although during cold dry periods CO2 fluxes were minimal. During the milder spring and fall seasons, short wetting events drove CO2 loss, while sustained wetting events resulted in net CO2 uptake. Thus, the upper and lower bounds of net CO2 exchange at a point in time were functions of the seasonal temperature regime, while the actual flux within those bounds was determined by the magnitude and duration of biocrust and soil wetting events. These patterns reflect both the low temperature sensitivity and slow initiation in response to wetting of photosynthesis compared to respiration by biocrust organisms. Our study highlights the importance of cool and cold periods for C uptake in biocrusted soils of the Colorado Plateau.

Large-scale dynamics of the stratosphere and mesosphere during the MAP/WINE campaign winter 1983 to 1984 in comparison with other winters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petzoldt, K.

1989-01-01

For the MAP/WINE winter temperature and wind measurements of rockets were combined with SSU radiances (Stratospheric Sounder Unit onboard the NOAA satellites) and stratopause heights from the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME) to get a retrieved data set including all available information. By means of this data set a hemispheric geopotential height, temperature and geostrophic wind fields eddy transports for wave mean flow interaction and potential vorticity for the interpretation of nonlinear wave breaking could be computed. Wave reflection at critical lines was investigated with respect of stratospheric warmings. The meridional gradient of the potential vorticity and focusing of wave activity is compared with derived data from satellite observations during other winters.

Observations of the diurnal dependence of the high-latitude F region ion density by DMSP satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sojka, J. J.; Raitt, W. J.; Schunk, R. W.; Rich, F. J.; Sagalyn, R. C.

1982-01-01

Data from the DMSP F2 and F4 satellites for the period December 5-10, 1979, have been used to study the diurnal dependence of the high-latitude ion density at 800-km altitude. A 24-hour periodicity in the minimum orbital density (MOD) during a crossing of the high-latitude region is observed in both the winter and summer hemispheres. The phase of the variation in MOD is such that it has a minimum during the 24-hour period between 0700 and 0900 UT. Both the long-term variation of the high-latitude ion density on a time scale of days, and the orbit-by-orbit variations at the same geomagnetic location in the northern (winter) hemisphere for the magnetically quiet time period chosen, show good qualitative agreement with the diurnal dependence predicted by a theoretical model of the ionospheric density at high latitudes under conditions of low convection speeds (Sojka et al., 1981).

Long-term temperature observations from the troposphere to upper mesosphere over Mauna Loa, HI (19.5N, 155.6W) and Table Mountain, CA (34.4N, 117.7W) by JPL Lidars and nearby Radiosondes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, T.; Leblanc, T.; McDermid, S.; Wu, D. L.

2007-12-01

The JPL Rayleigh lidars at Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO), HI (19.5N, 155.6W) and Table Mountain Observatory (TMO), CA (34.4N, 117.7W) have been operated for the regular nighttime data acquisition of temperature since 1994 and 1989 respectively. Using the monthly mean temperature vertical profiles observed by the JPL lidars (35- 85km) and nearby radiosondes (5-30km), and with the linear regression analysis, we are able to extract the temperature trend, solar cycle, El Nino South Oscillation (ENSO), and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) signals from the troposphere to upper mesosphere over MLO and TMO. The temperature trends show different behaviors at two sites, minor trend at MLO, but more negative trend at TMO. The solar cycle responses in temperature are generally positive above the middle stratosphere at both sites, but negative response at MLO and positive at TMO below. During the El Nino events, the warmer temperatures in the troposphere and upper mesosphere, and the colder temperatures in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere were observed at MLO and almost visa verse at TMO. The significant QBO oscillations were observed in the stratosphere with amplitudes of ~2-3K and with clearer downward phase progression at MLO than that at TMO. The mesospheric QBO near 75-85km is clearly present at both sites with amplitude of ~2K and with longer vertical wavelength than that in stratosphere. In addition, we calculated the GW variances using lidar temperature profiles with 30min and 1km resolutions in the upper stratosphere (38-50km) and lower mesosphere (50-62km), and nearby radiosondes in the lower stratosphere (18-30km). The monthly mean GW variances clearly show an annual oscillation with a maximum in the winter and minimum in the summer. The QBO signature could be clearly seen in the lower stratosphere. In the upper stratosphere, a longer period oscillation (~5-6 years) with maxima in 2000-2001 and 2006 was revealed to synchronize with the solar maximum and minimum. No clear signature of GW activity in the lower mesosphere could be associated to that in the upper stratosphere, suggesting that part of gravity waves may either dissipated or reflected when crossing the stratopause region.

What Controls the Temperature of the Arctic Stratosphere during the Spring?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newman, Paul A.; Nash, Eric R.; Rosenfield, Joan E.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Understanding the mechanisms that control the temperature of the polar lower stratosphere during spring is key to understanding ozone loss in the Arctic polar vortex. Spring ozone loss rates are directly tied to polar stratospheric temperatures by the formation of polar stratospheric clouds, and the conversion of chlorine species to reactive forms on these cloud particle surfaces. In this paper, we study those factors that control temperatures in the polar lower stratosphere. We use the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/NCAR reanalysis data covering the last two decades to investigate how planetary wave driving of the stratosphere is connected to polar temperatures. In particular, we show that planetary waves forced in the troposphere in mid- to late winter (January-February) are principally responsible for the mean polar temperature during the March period. These planetary waves are forced by both thermal and orographic processes in the troposphere, and propagate into the stratosphere in the mid and high latitudes. Strong mid-winter planetary wave forcing leads to a warmer Arctic lower stratosphere in early spring, while weak mid-winter forcing leads to cooler Arctic temperatures.

Diving through the thermal window: implications for a warming world

PubMed Central

Campbell, Hamish A.; Dwyer, Ross G.; Gordos, Matthew; Franklin, Craig E.

2010-01-01

Population decline and a shift in the geographical distribution of some ectothermic animals have been attributed to climatic warming. Here, we show that rises in water temperature of a few degrees, while within the thermal window for locomotor performance, may be detrimental to diving behaviour in air-breathing ectotherms (turtles, crocodilians, marine iguanas, amphibians, snakes and lizards). Submergence times and internal and external body temperature were remotely recorded from freshwater crocodiles (Crocodylus johnstoni) while they free-ranged throughout their natural habitat in summer and winter. During summer, the crocodiles' mean body temperature was 5.2 ± 0.1°C higher than in winter and the largest proportion of total dive time was composed of dive durations approximately 15 min less than in winter. Diving beyond 40 min during summer required the crocodiles to exponentially increase the time they spent on the surface after the dive, presumably to clear anaerobic debt. The relationship was not as significant in winter, even though a greater proportion of dives were of a longer duration, suggesting that diving lactate threshold (DLT) was reduced in summer compared with winter. Additional evidence for a reduced DLT in summer was derived from the stronger influence body mass exerted upon dive duration, compared to winter. The results demonstrate that the higher summer body temperature increased oxygen demand during the dive, implying that thermal acclimatization of the diving metabolic rate was inadequate. If the study findings are common among air-breathing diving ectotherms, then long-term warming of the aquatic environment may be detrimental to behavioural function and survivorship. PMID:20610433

Performance of winter rape (Brassica napus) based fuel mixtures in diesel engines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wagner, G.L.; Peterson, C.L.

1982-01-01

Winter rape is well adapted to the Palouse region of Northern Idaho and Eastern Washington. Nearly all of the current US production is grown in this region. Yields of 2200 to 2700 kg/ha with 45 percent oil content are common. Even though present production only 2000 to 2500 ha per year, the long history of production and good yields of oil make winter rape the best potential fuel vegetable oil crop for the region. Winter rape oil is more viscous than sunflower oil (50 cSt at 40/sup 0/C for winter rape and 35 cSt at 40/sup 0/C for sunflower oil)more » and about 17 times more viscous than diesel. The viscosity of the pure oil has been found too high for operation in typical diesel injector systems. Mixtures and/or additives are essential if the oil is to be a satisfactory fuel. Conversely, the fatty acid composition of witer rape oils is such that it is potentially a more favorable fuel because of reduced rates of oxidation and thermal polymerization. This paper will report on results of short and long term engine tests using winter rape, diesel, and commercial additives as the components. Selection of mixtures for long term screening tests was based on laboratory studies which included high temperature oxidation studies and temperature-viscosity data. Fuel temperature has been monitored at the outlet of the injector nozzle on operating engines so that viscosity comparisons at the actual injector temperature can be made. 1 figure, 3 tables.« less

Mask humidity during CPAP: influence of ambient temperature, heated humidification and heated tubing.

PubMed

Nilius, Georg; Domanski, Ulrike; Schroeder, Maik; Woehrle, Holger; Graml, Andrea; Franke, Karl-Josef

2018-01-01

Mucosal drying during continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) therapy is problematic for many patients. This study assessed the influence of ambient relative humidity (rH) and air temperature (T) in winter and summer on mask humidity during CPAP, with and without mask leak, and with or without heated humidification ± heated tubing. CPAP (8 and 12 cmH 2 O) without humidification (no humidity [nH]), with heated humidification controlled by ambient temperature and humidity (heated humidity [HH]) and HH plus heated tubing climate line (CL), with and without leakage, were compared in 18 subjects with OSA during summer and winter. The absolute humidity (aH) and the T inside the mask during CPAP were significantly lower in winter versus summer under all applied conditions. Overall, absolute humidity differences between summer and winter were statistically significant in both HH and CL vs. nH ( p < 0.05) in the presence and absence of mouth leak. There were no significant differences in aH between HH and CL. However, in-mask temperature during CL was higher ( p < 0.05) and rH lower than during HH. In winter, CPAP with CL was more likely to keep rH constant at 80% than CPAP without humidification or with standard HH. Clinically-relevant reductions in aH were documented during CPAP given under winter conditions. The addition of heated humidification, using a heated tube to avoid condensation is recommended to increase aH, which could be useful in CPAP users complaining of nose and throat symptoms.

Mask humidity during CPAP: influence of ambient temperature, heated humidification and heated tubing

PubMed Central

Nilius, Georg; Domanski, Ulrike; Schroeder, Maik; Woehrle, Holger; Graml, Andrea; Franke, Karl-Josef

2018-01-01

Purpose Mucosal drying during continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) therapy is problematic for many patients. This study assessed the influence of ambient relative humidity (rH) and air temperature (T) in winter and summer on mask humidity during CPAP, with and without mask leak, and with or without heated humidification ± heated tubing. Methods CPAP (8 and 12 cmH2O) without humidification (no humidity [nH]), with heated humidification controlled by ambient temperature and humidity (heated humidity [HH]) and HH plus heated tubing climate line (CL), with and without leakage, were compared in 18 subjects with OSA during summer and winter. Results The absolute humidity (aH) and the T inside the mask during CPAP were significantly lower in winter versus summer under all applied conditions. Overall, absolute humidity differences between summer and winter were statistically significant in both HH and CL vs. nH (p < 0.05) in the presence and absence of mouth leak. There were no significant differences in aH between HH and CL. However, in-mask temperature during CL was higher (p < 0.05) and rH lower than during HH. In winter, CPAP with CL was more likely to keep rH constant at 80% than CPAP without humidification or with standard HH. Conclusion Clinically-relevant reductions in aH were documented during CPAP given under winter conditions. The addition of heated humidification, using a heated tube to avoid condensation is recommended to increase aH, which could be useful in CPAP users complaining of nose and throat symptoms. PMID:29750062

Impact of recharge water temperature on bioclogging during managed aquifer recharge: a laboratory study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Lu; Gao, Zongjun; Zheng, Xilai; Wei, Jiuchuan

2018-04-01

To investigate the effect of recharge water temperature on bioclogging processes and mechanisms during seasonal managed aquifer recharge (MAR), two groups of laboratory percolation experiments were conducted: a winter test and a summer test. The temperatures were controlled at 5±2 and 15±3 °C, and the tests involved bacterial inoculums acquired from well water during March 2014 and August 2015, for the winter and summer tests, respectively. The results indicated that the sand columns clogged 10 times faster in the summer test due to a 10-fold larger bacterial growth rate. The maximum concentrations of total extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) in the winter test were approximately twice those in the summer test, primarily caused by a 200 μg/g sand increase of both loosely bound EPS (LB-EPS) and tightly bound EPS (TB-EPS). In the first half of the experimental period, the accumulation of bacteria cells and EPS production induced rapid bioclogging in both the winter and summer tests. Afterward, increasing bacterial growth dominated the bioclogging in the summer test, while the accumulation of LB-EPS led to further bioclogging in the winter test. The biological analysis determined that the dominant bacteria in experiments for both seasons were different and the bacterial community diversity was 50% higher in the winter test than that for summer. The seasonal inoculums could lead to differences in the bacterial community structure and diversity, while recharge water temperature was considered to be a major factor influencing the bacterial growth rate and metabolism behavior during the seasonal bioclogging process.

The Horizontal Ice Nucleation Chamber (HINC): INP measurements at conditions relevant for mixed-phase clouds at the High Altitude Research Station Jungfraujoch

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lacher, Larissa; Lohmann, Ulrike; Boose, Yvonne; Zipori, Assaf; Herrmann, Erik; Bukowiecki, Nicolas; Steinbacher, Martin; Kanji, Zamin A.

2017-12-01

In this work we describe the Horizontal Ice Nucleation Chamber (HINC) as a new instrument to measure ambient ice-nucleating particle (INP) concentrations for conditions relevant to mixed-phase clouds. Laboratory verification and validation experiments confirm the accuracy of the thermodynamic conditions of temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH) in HINC with uncertainties in T of ±0.4 K and in RH with respect to water (RHw) of ±1.5 %, which translates into an uncertainty in RH with respect to ice (RHi) of ±3.0 % at T > 235 K. For further validation of HINC as a field instrument, two measurement campaigns were conducted in winters 2015 and 2016 at the High Altitude Research Station Jungfraujoch (JFJ; Switzerland, 3580 m a. s. l. ) to sample ambient INPs. During winters 2015 and 2016 the site encountered free-tropospheric conditions 92 and 79 % of the time, respectively. We measured INP concentrations at 242 K at water-subsaturated conditions (RHw = 94 %), relevant for the formation of ice clouds, and in the water-supersaturated regime (RHw = 104 %) to represent ice formation occurring under mixed-phase cloud conditions. In winters 2015 and 2016 the median INP concentrations at RHw = 94 % was below the minimum detectable concentration. At RHw = 104 %, INP concentrations were an order of magnitude higher, with median concentrations in winter 2015 of 2.8 per standard liter (std L-1; normalized to standard T of 273 K and pressure, p, of 1013 hPa) and 4.7 std L-1 in winter 2016. The measurements are in agreement with previous winter measurements obtained with the Portable Ice Nucleation Chamber (PINC) of 2.2 std L-1 at the same location. During winter 2015, two events caused the INP concentrations at RHw = 104 % to significantly increase above the campaign average. First, an increase to 72.1 std L-1 was measured during an event influenced by marine air, arriving at the JFJ from the North Sea and the Norwegian Sea. The contribution from anthropogenic or other sources can thereby not be ruled out. Second, INP concentrations up to 146.2 std L-1 were observed during a Saharan dust event. To our knowledge this is the first time that a clear enrichment in ambient INP concentration in remote regions of the atmosphere is observed during a time of marine air mass influence, suggesting the importance of marine particles on ice nucleation in the free troposphere.

Health symptoms in relation to temperature, humidity, and self-reported perceptions of climate in New York City residential environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, Ashlinn; Shaman, Jeffrey

2017-07-01

Little monitoring has been conducted of temperature and humidity inside homes despite the fact that these conditions may be relevant to health outcomes. Previous studies have observed associations between self-reported perceptions of the indoor environment and health. Here, we investigate associations between measured temperature and humidity, perceptions of indoor environmental conditions, and health symptoms in a sample of New York City apartments. We measured temperature and humidity in 40 New York City apartments during summer and winter seasons and collected survey data from the households' residents. Health outcomes of interest were (1) sleep quality, (2) symptoms of heat illness (summer season), and (3) symptoms of respiratory viral infection (winter season). Using mixed-effects logistic regression models, we investigated associations between the perceptions, symptoms, and measured conditions in each season. Perceptions of indoor temperature were significantly associated with measured temperature in both the summer and the winter, with a stronger association in the summer season. Sleep quality was inversely related to measured and perceived indoor temperature in the summer season only. Heat illness symptoms were associated with perceived, but not measured, temperature in the summer season. We did not find an association between any measured or perceived condition and cases of respiratory infection in the winter season. Although limited in size, the results of this study reveal that indoor temperature may impact sleep quality, and that thermal perceptions of the indoor environment may indicate vulnerability to heat illness. These are both important avenues for further investigation.

Change in abundance of pacific brant wintering in alaska: evidence of a climate warming effect?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ward, David H.; Dau, Christian P.; Tibbitts, T. Lee; Sedinger, James S.; Anderson, Betty A.; Hines, James E.

2009-01-01

Winter distribution of Pacific Flyway brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) has shifted northward from lowtemperate areas to sub-Arctic areas over the last 42 years. We assessed the winter abundance and distribution of brant in Alaska to evaluate whether climate warming may be contributing to positive trends in the most northern of the wintering populations. Mean surface air temperatures during winter at the end of the Alaska Peninsula increased about 1??C between 1963 and 2004, resulting in a 23% reduction in freezing degree days and a 34% decline in the number of days when ice cover prevents birds from accessing food resources. Trends in the wintering population fluctuated with states of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, increasing during positive (warm) phases and decreasing during negative (cold) phases, and this correlation provides support for the hypothesis that growth in the wintering population of brant in Alaska is linked to climate warming. The size of the wintering population was negatively correlated with the number of days of strong northwesterly winds in November, which suggests that the occurrence of tailwinds favorable for migration before the onset of winter was a key factor in whether brant migrated from Alaska or remained there during winter. Winter distribution of brant on the Alaska Peninsula was highly variable and influenced by ice cover, particularly at the heavily used Izembek Lagoon. Observations of previously marked brant indicated that the Alaska wintering population was composed primarily of birds originating from Arctic breeding colonies that appear to be growing. Numbers of brant in Alaska during winter will likely increase as temperatures rise and ice cover decreases at high latitudes in response to climate warming. ?? The Arctic Institute of North America.

Internal hive temperature as a means of monitoring honey bee colony health in a migratory beekeeping operation before and during winter

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Internal temperatures of honey bee hives kept at different sites in North Dakota were monitored before and during winter to evaluate the effects of treatment, in the form of exposure to commercial pollination, and location on colony health. In October, hives exposed to commercial pollination durin...

Freezing tolerance of winter wheat as influenced by extended growth at low temperature and exposure to freeze-thaw cycles

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

As the seasons progress, autumn-planted winter wheat plants (Triticum aestivum L.) first gain, then progressively lose freezing tolerance. Exposing the plants to freeze-thaw cycles of -3/3°C results in increased ability to tolerate subsequent freezing to potentially damaging temperatures. This stu...

Historic Storminess Changes in North Atlantic Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dawson, A. G.; Elliott, L.; Noone, S.; Hickey, K.; Foster, I.; Wadhams, P.; Mayewski, P.

2001-05-01

Reconstructed patterns of historic storminess (1870-1990 AD) for North Atlantic region as indicated by measurements from selected stations in Iceland, Faeroes, Scotland and Ireland show clear links with the climate "seesaw" winters first described by Van Loon and Rogers. The stormiest winters appear to have occurred during periods when measured Greenland air temperatures at Jacobshavn and reconstructed air temperatures from the Summit ice core site have been exceptionally low and when air temperature across northern Europe have been well above average. Maxima and minima of recorded winter storms for the various stations are also in agreement with the Sodium chronology from GISP2 that points to increased sea salt precipitation on Greenland ice at Summit during Greenland "below" periods of the climate seesaw.

The effects of measurement site and ambient temperature on body temperature values in healthy older adults: a cross-sectional comparative study.

PubMed

Lu, Shu-Hua; Dai, Yu-Tzu; Yen, Chung-Jen

2009-11-01

Accurate baseline body temperature measurement is essential for assessment. Tympanic membrane temperature (TMT) measurement is popular, but there is no consensus on whether it is as accurate as oral temperature (OT) for use with the elderly at varying ambient temperature levels. To test agreement between TMT and OT measurement of body temperature among an elderly population; and to explore whether agreement between the two sites depends on ambient temperature. A cross-sectional comparison study. Two samples of older community-dwelling adults were recruited from 17 community senior citizen centers in Taipei, Taiwan in winter (n=262) and summer (n=257) of 2007. TMT and OT were simultaneously measured by electronic infrared ear thermometer and electronic digital thermometer. Ambient temperatures measured by digital thermo-hygrometer of the data collection setting were recorded when body temperature was taken. In winter mean TMT was 36.64 degrees C (S.D. 0.37), and mean OT was 36.74 degrees C (S.D. 0.18). In summer, the mean TMT was 37.05 degrees C (S.D. 0.30) and mean OT was 36.85 degrees C (S.D. 0.22). The relationship between TMT and OT were r=0.42 (p<0.001) in winter and r=0.57 (p<0.001) in summer. The values of OT were used as standard to assess the accuracy of the measurement. The bias between TMT and OT was -0.10 degrees C (S.D. 0.34) and 95% limits of agreement were 0.57 and -0.77 degrees C in winter; and bias was 0.20 degrees C (S.D. 0.25) and 95% limits of agreement were 0.69 and -0.29 degrees C in summer. The findings of this study demonstrate that the TMT has high variability that may under or over estimate body temperatures. There is a lack of agreement in body temperatures values between TMT and OT in community-dwelling elderly in both winter and summer. OT was more stable than TMT regardless of ambient temperature influences. Therefore, the oral cavity is preferable to the TM site for temperature measurement in alert elderly. The limitation of this study is that hospitalized patients who are most likely to need temperature measurement are not included in this study.

Persisting and strong warming hiatus over eastern China during the past two decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yang; Zhai, Panmao

2017-10-01

During the past two decades since 1997, eastern China has experienced a warming hiatus punctuated by significant cooling in daily-minimum temperature (Tmin), particularly during early-mid winter. By arbitrarily configuring start and end years, a ‘vantage hiatus period’ in eastern China is detected over 1998-2013, during when the domain-averaged Tmin exhibited the strongest cooling trend and the number of significant cooling stations peaked. Regions most susceptible to the warming hiatus are located in North China, the Yangtze-Huai River Valley and South China, where significant cooling in Tmin persisted through 2016. This sustained hiatus gave rise to increasingly frequent and severe cold extremes there. Concerning its prolonged persistency and great cooling rate, the recent warming hiatus over eastern China deviates much from most historical short-term trends during the past five decades, and thus could be viewed as an outlier against the prevalent warming context.

Internet survey of the influence of environmental factors on human health: environmental epidemiologic investigation using the web-based daily questionnaire for health

PubMed Central

Sano, Tomomi; Akahane, Manabu; Sugiura, Hiroaki; Ohkusa, Yasushi; Okabe, Nobuhiko; Imamura, Tomoaki

2012-01-01

With increasing Internet coverage, the use of a web-based survey for epidemiological study is a possibility. We performed an investigation in Japan in winter 2008 using the web-based daily questionnaire for health (WDQH). The WDQH is a web-based questionnaire survey formulated to obtain information about the daily physical condition of the general public on a real-time basis, in order to study correlations between changes in physical health and changes in environmental factors. Respondents were asked whether they felt ill and had specific symptoms including fever. We analysed the environmental factors along with the health conditions obtained from the WDQH. Four factors were found to influence health: minimum temperature, hours of sunlight, median humidity and weekday or holiday. The WDQH allowed a daily health survey in the general population in real time via the Internet. PMID:22946467

Interannual control of plankton communities by deep winter mixing and prey/predator interactions in the NW Mediterranean: Results from a 30-year 3D modeling study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Auger, P. A.; Ulses, C.; Estournel, C.; Stemmann, L.; Somot, S.; Diaz, F.

2014-05-01

A realistic modeling approach is designed to address the role of winter mixing on the interannual variability of plankton dynamics in the north-western (NW) Mediterranean basin. For the first time, a high-resolution coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model (Eco3m-S) covering a 30-year period (1976-2005) is validated on available in situ and satellite data for the NW Mediterranean. In this region, cold, dry winds in winter often lead to deep convection and strong upwelling of nutrients into the euphotic layer. High nutrient contents at the end of winter then support the development of a strong spring bloom of phytoplankton. Model results indicate that annual primary production is not affected by winter mixing due to seasonal balance (minimum in winter and maximum in spring). However, the total annual water column-integrated phytoplankton biomass appears to be favored by winter mixing because zooplankton grazing activity is low in winter and early spring. This reduced grazing is explained here by the rarefaction of prey due to both light limitation and the effect of mixing-induced dilution on prey/predator interactions. A negative impact of winter mixing on winter zooplankton biomass is generally simulated except for mesozooplankton. This difference is assumed to stem from the lower parameterized mortality, top trophic position and detritivorous diet of mesozooplankton in the model. Moreover, model suggests that the variability of annual mesozooplankton biomass is principally modulated by the effects of winter mixing on winter biomass. Thus, interannual variability of winter nutrient contents in the euphotic layer, resulting from winter mixing, would control spring primary production and thus annual mesozooplankton biomass. Our results show a bottom-up control of mesozooplankton communities, as observed at a coastal location of the Ligurian Sea.

Ilot de Chaleur a Quebec: Cas d'hiver

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leduc, Richard; Jacques, Ghislain; Ferland, Michel; Le Lièvre, Claude

1981-11-01

This paper describes the urban heat island in Quebec City on a typical clear winter night. This is a follow-up to a study made on a summer night in August 1980; the reader will find a detailed description of the region in Leduc et al. (1980). On February 25, 1980 at 21:30 EST, nearly 200 measurements of temperature were taken at preselected points by 17 mobile observers; a mini-sonde was launched near the Duberger meteorological tower while upper air data were obtained from a sonde launched at Valcartier CFB. Additional data were available from the five regular climatological stations in greater Quebec City and from 2 other thermographs in order to evaluate cooling rates. On the day of the 25th, a developing low pressure area over the eastern coast brought cold air from the northwest toward Quebec City. On that day, the maximum temperature was - 1 °C while the minimum on the following night dropped to - 19 °C. At the time of the experiment, the sky was clear and the winds were westerly at 1.5 m s-1 at the surface and northwesterly at 6 m s-1 at 122 m. A strong inversion was present in the lowest 200 m while upper inversions were noted on the upper air sounding. As noted in the summer experiment, cooling rates, according to the Oke et al. (1972) criteria, reflected a rural behaviour at all stations equipped with a thermograph. It is to be noted that no data on cooling rates are available for the highly urbanized sectors. One notes a relatively warm zone in the downtown area where temperature reached - 8 °C; there is also a cold zone, at the same location as during the summer experiment. The mean temperature gradient between the urban and rural sectors was 5 °C, which is comparable with that observed in August 1979 (6 °C). Thus, the urban heat island does not seem to be more intense in winter than in summer. Relatively large areas of uniform temperature were detected at places where the summer experiment indicated sharp spatial contrasts; this could be attributed to the presence of snow on the ground. The great number of measurements taken in the more urbanized sector revealed a complex spatial arrangement of smaller heat islands which are separated by boulevards or open areas (covered with snow). For the city dwellers, the temperature differences resulted in relatively sharp contrasts in clothing requirements for comfort. Urban morphology was analyzed and a multiple regression model was formulated between temperature on the one hand and altitude, land use and distance to the warmest point, on the other hand. It shows that, for both winter and summer the most important factor in explaining the heat island is distance to the warmest point while land use comes second; distance explains the form and land use explains the fine structure of the heat island.

A robust empirical seasonal prediction of winter NAO and surface climate.

PubMed

Wang, L; Ting, M; Kushner, P J

2017-03-21

A key determinant of winter weather and climate in Europe and North America is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the dominant mode of atmospheric variability in the Atlantic domain. Skilful seasonal forecasting of the surface climate in both Europe and North America is reflected largely in how accurately models can predict the NAO. Most dynamical models, however, have limited skill in seasonal forecasts of the winter NAO. A new empirical model is proposed for the seasonal forecast of the winter NAO that exhibits higher skill than current dynamical models. The empirical model provides robust and skilful prediction of the December-January-February (DJF) mean NAO index using a multiple linear regression (MLR) technique with autumn conditions of sea-ice concentration, stratospheric circulation, and sea-surface temperature. The predictability is, for the most part, derived from the relatively long persistence of sea ice in the autumn. The lower stratospheric circulation and sea-surface temperature appear to play more indirect roles through a series of feedbacks among systems driving NAO evolution. This MLR model also provides skilful seasonal outlooks of winter surface temperature and precipitation over many regions of Eurasia and eastern North America.

A major increase in winter snowfall during the middle Holocene on western Greenland caused by reduced sea ice in Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Elizabeth K.; Briner, Jason P.; Ryan-Henry, John J.; Huang, Yongsong

2016-05-01

Precipitation is predicted to increase in the Arctic as temperature increases and sea ice retreats. Yet the mechanisms controlling precipitation in the Arctic are poorly understood and quantified only by the short, sparse instrumental record. We use hydrogen isotope ratios (δ2H) of lipid biomarkers in lake sediments from western Greenland to reconstruct precipitation seasonality and summer temperature during the past 8 kyr. Aquatic biomarker δ2H was 100‰ more negative from 6 to 4 ka than during the early and late Holocene, which we interpret to reflect increased winter snowfall. The middle Holocene also had high summer air temperature, decreased early winter sea ice in Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea, and a strong, warm West Greenland Current. These results corroborate model predictions of winter snowfall increases caused by sea ice retreat and furthermore suggest that warm currents advecting more heat into the polar seas may enhance Arctic evaporation and snowfall.

Recent changes (2004-2016) of temperature and salinity in the Mediterranean outflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naranjo, Cristina; García-Lafuente, Jesús; Sammartino, Simone; Sánchez-Garrido, José C.; Sánchez-Leal, Ricardo; Jesús Bellanco, M.

2017-06-01

Temperature and salinity series near the seafloor at Espartel Sill (Strait of Gibraltar) have been used to analyze the thermohaline variability of the Mediterranean outflow. The series shows temperature drops by the end of most winters/early springs, which are the remote response to Western Mediterranean Deep Water (WMDW) formation events in the Gulf of Lion that uplift old WMDW nearby the strait. This process distorts the seasonal cycle of colder/warmer water flowing out in summer/winter likely linked to the seasonality of the Western Alborán Gyre. The series shows positive trends in agreement with previous values, which are largely increased after 2013. It is tentatively interpreted as the Western Mediterranean Transition (WMT) signature that started with the very cold winters of 2005 and 2006. It was only after the large new WMDW production of 2012 and 2013 harsh winters that WMT waters were made available to flow out of the Mediterranean Sea.

Influence of atmospheric energy transport on amplification of winter warming in the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alekseev, Genrikh; Kuzmina, Svetlana; Urazgildeeva, Aleksandra; Bobylev, Leonid

2016-04-01

The study was performed on base reanalysis ERA/Interim to discover the link between amplified warming in the high Arctic and the atmospheric transport of heat and water vapor through the 70 ° N. The partitioning transports across the Atlantic and Pacific "gates" is established the link between variations of atmospheric flux through the "gates" and a larger part of the variability of the average surface air temperature, water vapor content and its trends in the winter 1980-2014. Influence of winter (December-February) atmospheric transport across the Atlantic "gate" at the 1000 hPa on variability of average for January-February surface air temperature to north 70° N is estimated correlation coefficient 0.75 and contribution to the temperature trend 40%. These results for the first time denote the leading role of increasing atmospheric transport on the amplification of winter warming in the high Arctic. The investigation is supported with RFBR project 15-05-03512.

Season-dependent effects of elevated temperature on stress biomarkers, energy metabolism and gamete development in mussels.

PubMed

Múgica, M; Sokolova, I M; Izagirre, U; Marigómez, I

2015-02-01

In coastal areas, sessile species can be severely affected by thermal stress associated to climate change. Presently, the effect of elevated temperature on metabolic, cellular and tissue-level responses of mussels was determined to assess whether the responses vary seasonally with seawater temperature and reproductive stage. Mussels were collected in fall, winter and summer, and (a) maintained at 16, 12, and 20 °C respectively or (b) subject to gradual temperature elevation for 8 days (+1 °C per day; from 16 to 24 °C in fall, from 12 to 20 °C in winter and from 20 to 28 °C in summer) and further maintained at 24 °C (fall), 20 °C (winter) and 28 °C (summer) for the following 6 days. Temperature elevation induced membrane destabilization, lysosomal enlargement, and reduced the aerobic scope in fall and summer whereas in winter no significant changes were found. Changes at tissue-level were only evident at 28 °C. Gamete development was impaired irrespective of season. Since the threshold of negative effects of warming was close to ambient temperatures in summer (24 °C or above) studied mussel populations would be vulnerable to the global climate change. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Strong Costs and Benefits of Winter Acclimatization in Drosophila melanogaster

PubMed Central

Schou, Mads Fristrup; Loeschcke, Volker; Kristensen, Torsten Nygaard

2015-01-01

Studies on thermal acclimation in insects are often performed on animals acclimated in the laboratory under conditions that are not ecologically relevant. Costs and benefits of acclimation responses under such conditions may not reflect costs and benefits in natural populations subjected to daily and seasonal temperature fluctuations. Here we estimated costs and benefits in thermal tolerance limits in relation to winter acclimatization of Drosophila melanogaster. We sampled flies from a natural habitat during winter in Denmark (field flies) and compared heat and cold tolerance of these to that of flies collected from the same natural population, but acclimated to 25 °C or 13 °C in the laboratory (laboratory flies). We further obtained thermal performance curves for egg-to-adult viability of field and laboratory (25 °C) flies, to estimate possible cross-generational effects of acclimation. We found much higher cold tolerance and a lowered heat tolerance in field flies compared to laboratory flies reared at 25 °C. Flies reared in the laboratory at 13 °C exhibited the same thermal cost-benefit relations as the winter acclimatized flies. We also found a cost of winter acclimatization in terms of decreased egg-to-adult viability at high temperatures of eggs laid by winter acclimatized flies. Based on our findings we suggest that winter acclimatization in nature can induce strong benefits in terms of increased cold tolerance. These benefits can be reproduced in the laboratory under ecologically relevant rearing and testing conditions, and should be incorporated in species distribution modelling. Winter acclimatization also leads to decreased heat tolerance. This may create a mismatch between acclimation responses and the thermal environment, e.g. if temperatures suddenly increase during spring, under current and expected more variable future climatic conditions. PMID:26075607

Strong Costs and Benefits of Winter Acclimatization in Drosophila melanogaster.

PubMed

Schou, Mads Fristrup; Loeschcke, Volker; Kristensen, Torsten Nygaard

2015-01-01

Studies on thermal acclimation in insects are often performed on animals acclimated in the laboratory under conditions that are not ecologically relevant. Costs and benefits of acclimation responses under such conditions may not reflect costs and benefits in natural populations subjected to daily and seasonal temperature fluctuations. Here we estimated costs and benefits in thermal tolerance limits in relation to winter acclimatization of Drosophila melanogaster. We sampled flies from a natural habitat during winter in Denmark (field flies) and compared heat and cold tolerance of these to that of flies collected from the same natural population, but acclimated to 25 °C or 13 °C in the laboratory (laboratory flies). We further obtained thermal performance curves for egg-to-adult viability of field and laboratory (25 °C) flies, to estimate possible cross-generational effects of acclimation. We found much higher cold tolerance and a lowered heat tolerance in field flies compared to laboratory flies reared at 25 °C. Flies reared in the laboratory at 13 °C exhibited the same thermal cost-benefit relations as the winter acclimatized flies. We also found a cost of winter acclimatization in terms of decreased egg-to-adult viability at high temperatures of eggs laid by winter acclimatized flies. Based on our findings we suggest that winter acclimatization in nature can induce strong benefits in terms of increased cold tolerance. These benefits can be reproduced in the laboratory under ecologically relevant rearing and testing conditions, and should be incorporated in species distribution modelling. Winter acclimatization also leads to decreased heat tolerance. This may create a mismatch between acclimation responses and the thermal environment, e.g. if temperatures suddenly increase during spring, under current and expected more variable future climatic conditions.

The Effect of the Ionosphere on Radiowave Signals and Systems Performance Based on Ionospheric Effects Symposium Held on 1-3 May 1990

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-05-03

winter and a minimum in summer ; in contrast, at sunspot maximum the seasonal peaks tend to occur around the equinoxes and the minima in summer . ’riis is...more clearly seen in Figures 4(b) ahnd 4(c). Note that around sunspot maximum the summer noon value may be less than the summer midnight value. (3) The...seasonal variation of the midnight values show summer peaks and winter minima with high values near the peaks of the sunspot cycles and low values

Research on the enhancement of biological nitrogen removal at low temperatures from ammonium-rich wastewater by the bio-electrocoagulation technology in lab-scale systems, pilot-scale systems and a full-scale industrial wastewater treatment plant.

PubMed

Li, Liang; Qian, Guangsheng; Ye, Linlin; Hu, Xiaomin; Yu, Xin; Lyu, Weijian

2018-09-01

In cold areas, nitrogen removal performance of wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) declines greatly in winter. This paper systematically describes the enhancement effect of a periodic reverse electrocoagulation technology on biological nitrogen removal at low temperatures. The study showed that in the lab-scale systems, the electrocoagulation technology improved the biomass amount, enzyme activity and the amount of nitrogen removal bacteria (Nitrosomonas, Nitrobacter, Paracoccus, Thauera and Enterobacter). This enhanced nitrification and denitrification of activated sludge at low temperatures. In the pilot-scale systems, the electrocoagulation technology increased the relative abundance of cold-adapted microorganisms (Luteimonas and Trueperaceae) at low temperatures. In a full-scale industrial WWTP, comparison of data from winter 2015 and winter 2016 showed that effluent chemical oxygen demand (COD), NH 4 + -N, and NO 3 - -N reduced by 10.37, 3.84, and 136.43 t, respectively, throughout the winter, after installation of electrocoagulation devices. These results suggest that the electrocoagulation technology is able to improve the performance of activated sludge under low-temperature conditions. This technology provides a new way for upgrading of the performance of WWTPs in cold areas. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Efficacy of micronutrient supplementation on skin aging and seasonal variation: a randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind study

PubMed Central

Fanian, Ferial; Mac-Mary, Sophie; Jeudy, Adeline; Lihoreau, Thomas; Messikh, Rafat; Ortonne, Jean-Paul; Sainthillier, Jean-Marie; Elkhyat, Ahmed; Guichard, Alexandre; Kenari, Kamran Hejazi; Humbert, Philippe

2013-01-01

Background Several studies have confirmed dramatic changes in skin surface parameters during the winter months. Although there are many studies supporting the positive effects of topical treatment, there are no published studies demonstrating the effects of oral supplementation in the prevention of negative skin changes during winter. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of an oral micronutrient supplement in preventing the negative effects of winter weather on skin quality using noninvasive biometrologic instruments. Methods This study included 80 healthy female volunteers aged 35–55 years with phototype II–IV skin. Randomization was balanced. Two tablets of a micronutrient supplement (Perfectil® Platinum) or placebo were administered once daily for 4 months. The volunteers were examined at baseline, after 4 months, and 6 weeks after termination of treatment (month 5.5). The evaluation included skin microrelief by Visioscan® as the main outcome, and the secondary outcomes were results on standard macrophotography, skin tension by Reviscometer®, skin high-frequency ultrasound, and self-assessment. Results For all pseudoroughness and microrelief indicators, there was a significant increase from baseline to month 4 in the placebo group (P<0.05) but no change in the active group. Descriptive statistics for the mean minimum, mean maximum, and minimum to maximum ratio on the nonexposed study zone showed a significant and dramatic difference between baseline and month 4 and between baseline and month 5.5 (P<0.05) in the active group, indicating decreasing anisotropy of the skin. High-frequency ultrasound on the exposed study zone revealed that skin thickness was significantly decreased in the placebo group during winter but was stable in the treated group (P<0.01). The photography scaling and self-assessment questionnaire revealed no significant changes in either group. Conclusion These results indicate that the skin is prone to seasonal changes during winter, particularly in exposed areas. The data also indicate that oral supplementation can be a safe treatment, with no serious side effects, and may prevent or even eliminate the negative effects of winter on the skin. PMID:24255597

Efficacy of micronutrient supplementation on skin aging and seasonal variation: a randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind study.

PubMed

Fanian, Ferial; Mac-Mary, Sophie; Jeudy, Adeline; Lihoreau, Thomas; Messikh, Rafat; Ortonne, Jean-Paul; Sainthillier, Jean-Marie; Elkhyat, Ahmed; Guichard, Alexandre; Kenari, Kamran Hejazi; Humbert, Philippe

2013-01-01

Several studies have confirmed dramatic changes in skin surface parameters during the winter months. Although there are many studies supporting the positive effects of topical treatment, there are no published studies demonstrating the effects of oral supplementation in the prevention of negative skin changes during winter. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of an oral micronutrient supplement in preventing the negative effects of winter weather on skin quality using noninvasive biometrologic instruments. This study included 80 healthy female volunteers aged 35-55 years with phototype II-IV skin. Randomization was balanced. Two tablets of a micronutrient supplement (Perfectil® Platinum) or placebo were administered once daily for 4 months. The volunteers were examined at baseline, after 4 months, and 6 weeks after termination of treatment (month 5.5). The evaluation included skin microrelief by Visioscan® as the main outcome, and the secondary outcomes were results on standard macrophotography, skin tension by Reviscometer®, skin high-frequency ultrasound, and self-assessment. For all pseudoroughness and microrelief indicators, there was a significant increase from baseline to month 4 in the placebo group (P<0.05) but no change in the active group. Descriptive statistics for the mean minimum, mean maximum, and minimum to maximum ratio on the nonexposed study zone showed a significant and dramatic difference between baseline and month 4 and between baseline and month 5.5 (P<0.05) in the active group, indicating decreasing anisotropy of the skin. High-frequency ultrasound on the exposed study zone revealed that skin thickness was significantly decreased in the placebo group during winter but was stable in the treated group (P<0.01). The photography scaling and self-assessment questionnaire revealed no significant changes in either group. These results indicate that the skin is prone to seasonal changes during winter, particularly in exposed areas. The data also indicate that oral supplementation can be a safe treatment, with no serious side effects, and may prevent or even eliminate the negative effects of winter on the skin.

Decreasing but still significant facilitation effect of cold-season macrophytes on wetlands purification function during cold winter.

PubMed

Zou, Xiangxu; Zhang, Hui; Zuo, Jie; Wang, Penghe; Zhao, Dehua; An, Shuqing

2016-06-01

To identify the facilitation effect of a cool-season aquatic macrophyte (FEam) for use in effluent purification via constructed floating wetlands (CFWs) and to determine the possible pathways used during a winter period with an average temperature of less than 5 °C, pilot-scale CFWs were planted with the cold-season macrophyte Oenanthe clecumbens and were operated as batch systems. Although some leaves withered, the roots retained relatively high levels of activity during the winter, which had average air and water temperatures of 3.63 and 5.04 °C, respectively. The N and P removal efficiencies in CFWs decreased significantly in winter relative to those in late autumn. The presence of cool-season plants resulted in significant improvements in N and P removal, with a FEam of 15.23-25.86% in winter. Microbial N removal accounted for 71.57% of the total N removed in winter, and the decrease in plant uptake was the dominant factor in the wintertime decrease in N removal relative to that in late autumn. These results demonstrate the importance of cold-season plants in CFWs for the treatment of secondary effluent during cold winters.

Extreme mid-winter drought weakens tree hydraulic-carbohydrate systems and slows growth.

PubMed

Earles, J Mason; Stevens, Jens T; Sperling, Or; Orozco, Jessica; North, Malcolm P; Zwieniecki, Maciej A

2018-07-01

Rising temperatures and extended periods of drought compromise tree hydraulic and carbohydrate systems, threatening forest health globally. Despite winter's biological significance to many forests, the effects of warmer and dryer winters on tree hydraulic and carbohydrate status have largely been overlooked. Here we report a sharp and previously unknown decline in stem water content of three conifer species during California's anomalous 2015 mid-winter drought that was followed by dampened spring starch accumulation. Recent precipitation and seasonal vapor pressure deficit (VPD) anomaly, not absolute VPD, best predicted the hydraulic patterns observed. By linking relative water content and hydraulic conductivity (K h ), we estimated that stand-level K h declined by 52% during California's 2015 mid-winter drought, followed by a 50% reduction in spring starch accumulation. Further examination of tree increment records indicated a concurrent decline of growth with rising mid-winter, but not summer, VPD anomaly. Thus, our findings suggest a seasonality to tree hydraulic and carbohydrate declines, with consequences for annual growth rates, raising novel physiological and ecological questions about how rising winter temperatures will affect forest vitality as climate changes. © 2018 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2018 New Phytologist Trust.

Statistical downscaling of CMIP5 outputs for projecting future maximum and minimum temperature over the Haihe River Bain, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Tiezhu; Shen, Zhenyao; Heng, Lee; Dercon, Gerd

2016-04-01

Future climate change information is important to formulate adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change. In this study, a statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was established using both NCEP reanalysis data and ground observations (daily maximum and minimum temperature) during the period 1971-2010, and then calibrated model was applied to generate the future maximum and minimum temperature projections using predictors from the two CMIP5 models (MPI-ESM-LR and CNRM-CM5) under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) during the period 2011-2100 for the Haihe River Basin, China. Compared to the baseline period, future change in annual and seasonal maximum and minimum temperature was computed after bias correction. The spatial distribution and trend change of annual maximum and minimum temperature were also analyzed using ensemble projections. The results shows that: (1)The downscaling model had a good applicability on reproducing daily and monthly mean maximum and minimum temperature over the whole basin. (2) Bias was observed when using historical predictors from CMIP5 models and the performance of CNRM-CM5 was a little worse than that of MPI-ESM-LR. (3) The change in annual mean maximum and minimum temperature under the two scenarios in 2020s, 2050s and 2070s will increase and magnitude of maximum temperature will be higher than minimum temperature. (4) The increase in temperature in the mountains and along the coastline is remarkably high than the other parts of the studies basin. (5) For annual maximum and minimum temperature, the significant upward trend will be obtained under RCP 8.5 scenario and the magnitude will be 0.37 and 0.39 ℃ per decade, respectively; the increase in magnitude under RCP 2.6 scenario will be upward in 2020s and then decrease in 2050s and 2070s, and the magnitude will be 0.01 and 0.01℃ per decade, respectively.

Effect of Climate Change on Soil Temperature in Swedish Boreal Forests

PubMed Central

Jungqvist, Gunnar; Oni, Stephen K.; Teutschbein, Claudia; Futter, Martyn N.

2014-01-01

Complex non-linear relationships exist between air and soil temperature responses to climate change. Despite its influence on hydrological and biogeochemical processes, soil temperature has received less attention in climate impact studies. Here we present and apply an empirical soil temperature model to four forest sites along a climatic gradient of Sweden. Future air and soil temperature were projected using an ensemble of regional climate models. Annual average air and soil temperatures were projected to increase, but complex dynamics were projected on a seasonal scale. Future changes in winter soil temperature were strongly dependent on projected snow cover. At the northernmost site, winter soil temperatures changed very little due to insulating effects of snow cover but southern sites with little or no snow cover showed the largest projected winter soil warming. Projected soil warming was greatest in the spring (up to 4°C) in the north, suggesting earlier snowmelt, extension of growing season length and possible northward shifts in the boreal biome. This showed that the projected effects of climate change on soil temperature in snow dominated regions are complex and general assumptions of future soil temperature responses to climate change based on air temperature alone are inadequate and should be avoided in boreal regions. PMID:24747938

Effect of climate change on soil temperature in Swedish boreal forests.

PubMed

Jungqvist, Gunnar; Oni, Stephen K; Teutschbein, Claudia; Futter, Martyn N

2014-01-01

Complex non-linear relationships exist between air and soil temperature responses to climate change. Despite its influence on hydrological and biogeochemical processes, soil temperature has received less attention in climate impact studies. Here we present and apply an empirical soil temperature model to four forest sites along a climatic gradient of Sweden. Future air and soil temperature were projected using an ensemble of regional climate models. Annual average air and soil temperatures were projected to increase, but complex dynamics were projected on a seasonal scale. Future changes in winter soil temperature were strongly dependent on projected snow cover. At the northernmost site, winter soil temperatures changed very little due to insulating effects of snow cover but southern sites with little or no snow cover showed the largest projected winter soil warming. Projected soil warming was greatest in the spring (up to 4°C) in the north, suggesting earlier snowmelt, extension of growing season length and possible northward shifts in the boreal biome. This showed that the projected effects of climate change on soil temperature in snow dominated regions are complex and general assumptions of future soil temperature responses to climate change based on air temperature alone are inadequate and should be avoided in boreal regions.

Modeling temperature inversion in southeastern Yellow Sea during winter 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pang, Ig-Chan; Moon, Jae-Hong; Lee, Joon-Ho; Hong, Ji-Seok; Pang, Sung-Jun

2017-05-01

A significant temperature inversion with temperature differences larger than 3°C was observed in the southeastern Yellow Sea (YS) during February 2016. By analyzing in situ hydrographic profiles and results from a regional ocean model for the YS, this study examines the spatiotemporal evolution of the temperature inversion and its connection with wind-induced currents in winter. Observations reveal that in winter, when the northwesterly wind prevails over the YS, the temperature inversion occurs largely at the frontal zone southwest of Korea where warm/saline water of a Kuroshio origin meets cold/fresh coastal water. Our model successfully captures the temperature inversion observed in the winter of 2016 and suggests a close relation between northwesterly wind bursts and the occurrence of the large inversion. In this respect, the strong northwesterly wind drove cold coastal water southward in the upper layer via Ekman transport, which pushed the water mass southward and increased the sea level slope in the frontal zone in southeastern YS. The intensified sea level slope propagated northward away from the frontal zone as a shelf wave, causing a northward upwind flow response along the YS trough in the lower layer, thereby resulting in the large temperature inversion. Diagnostic analysis of the momentum balance shows that the westward pressure gradient, which developed with shelf wave propagation along the YS trough, was balanced with the Coriolis force in accordance with the northward upwind current in and around the inversion area.