Influence of finite-time Lyapunov exponents on winter precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garaboa-Paz, Daniel; Lorenzo, Nieves; Pérez-Muñuzuri, Vicente

2017-05-01

Seasonal forecasts have improved during the last decades, mostly due to an increase in understanding of the coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics, and the development of models able to predict the atmosphere variability. Correlations between different teleconnection patterns and severe weather in different parts of the world are constantly evolving and changing. This paper evaluates the connection between winter precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula and the large-scale tropospheric mixing over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Finite-time Lyapunov exponents (FTLEs) have been calculated from 1979 to 2008 to evaluate this mixing. Our study suggests that significant negative correlations exist between summer FTLE anomalies and winter precipitation over Portugal and Spain. To understand the mechanisms behind this correlation, summer anomalies of the FTLE have also been correlated with other climatic variables such as the sea surface temperature (SST), the sea level pressure (SLP) or the geopotential. The East Atlantic (EA) teleconnection index correlates with the summer FTLE anomalies, confirming their role as a seasonal predictor for winter precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula.

What is the variability in US west coast winter precipitation during strong El Niño events?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Arun; Chen, Mingyue

2017-10-01

Motivated by the fact that the spatial pattern of the observed precipitation anomalies during 2015/16 winter (a year of strong El Niño) over the west coast of the US and that of the El Niño composite precipitation pattern had considerable differences, the variability in the winter precipitation during strong El Niño events is assessed. The analysis is based on a set of hindcasts (1982-2011) and real-time forecasts (2012-2015) from NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), and the following aspects for seasonal mean precipitation variability were examined: (1) the mean signal during strong El Niño based on the composite analysis, and further, the variability from the composite on an event-to-event basis; (2) probability of occurrence for precipitation anomalies to be opposite to the signal (inferred as the composite mean); (3) the probability to have precipitation anomaly in different categories varying from wet to dry; and (4) variations in the characteristics of precipitation from OND, NDJ, to DJF (early to late boreal winter). The results show that the model forecasted seasonal mean precipitation composite for strong El Niño was similar to the linear regression signal with the Niño 3.4 index in observations, with negative anomalies over the Pacific Northwest and positive anomalies over California. However, although in response to an El Niño event, the California precipitation PDF was shifted towards positive values relative to the climatological PDF, the overlap between climatological PDF and the PDF for El Niño events was considerable. This is because of the large variability in seasonal mean outcomes of precipitation from one forecast to another, and therefore, chances to have precipitation anomalies with their sign opposite to the composite El Niño signal remain appreciable. In this paradigm, although the seasonal mean precipitation during 2015/16 winter over the west coast of the US differed from the mean signal for a strong El Niño event, the observed anomalies were well within the envelope of possible outcomes. This has significant implications for seasonal predictability and prediction skill, and further, poses challenges for decision makers in the uptake of seasonal forecast information.

February precipitation in the wintering grounds of the lesser whitethroat, Sylvia curruca: is it a cue for migration onset?

PubMed

Aloni, Irith; Markman, Shai; Ziv, Yaron

2017-02-01

Numerous studies report shifts in bird migration phenology, presumably owing to global warming. However, most studies focus on migration patterns in the Northern Hemisphere. In this study, we investigated associations between weather conditions in African wintering grounds of the lesser whitethroat, Sylvia curruca, and spring arrival time in Eilat, Israel. Using multivariate regression models, we analysed a 30-year dataset in order to examine correlations between median springtime arrival and 46 climate variables of the wintering quarters. The model obtained exhibited a highly statistical fit, involving mean precipitation in February and March with negative effects and number of wet days during November-February. February precipitation levels were also the major factor associated with the interquartile range of arrival time. Interestingly and contrary to published results, annual or seasonal precipitation showed no correlation with spring arrival time, nor did temperature. Moreover, winter in this region falls into dry season with negligible rainfall quantities. Hence, it is unlikely that precipitation effect on habitat productivity is a driving force of migration, as suggested by other studies. Instead, we propose that precipitation in February acts as a cue for the birds, indicating the approach of spring and migration time.

Effects of precipitation change and neighboring plants on population dynamics of Bromus tectorum.

PubMed

Prevéy, Janet S; Seastedt, Timothy R

2015-11-01

Shifting precipitation patterns resulting from global climate change will influence the success of invasive plant species. In the Front Range of Colorado, Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass) and other non-native winter annuals have invaded grassland communities and are becoming more abundant. As the global climate warms, more precipitation may fall as rain rather than snow in winter, and an increase in winter rain could benefit early-growing winter annuals, such as B. tectorum, to the detriment of native species. In this study we measured the effects of simulated changes in seasonal precipitation and presence of other plant species on population growth of B. tectorum in a grassland ecosystem near Boulder, Colorado, USA. We also performed elasticity analyses to identify life transitions that were most sensitive to precipitation differences. In both study years, population growth rates were highest for B. tectorum growing in treatments receiving supplemental winter precipitation and lowest for those receiving the summer drought treatment. Survival of seedlings to flowering and seed production contributed most to population growth in all treatments. Biomass of neighboring native plants was positively correlated with reduced population growth rates of B. tectorum. However, exotic plant biomass had no effect on population growth rates. This study demonstrates how interacting effects of climate change and presence of native plants can influence the population growth of an invasive species. Overall, our results suggest that B. tectorum will become more invasive in grasslands if the seasonality of precipitation shifts towards wetter winters and allows B. tectorum to grow when competition from native species is low.

Winter Precipitation Forecast in the European and Mediterranean Regions Using Cluster Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Totz, Sonja; Tziperman, Eli; Coumou, Dim; Pfeiffer, Karl; Cohen, Judah

2017-12-01

The European climate is changing under global warming, and especially the Mediterranean region has been identified as a hot spot for climate change with climate models projecting a reduction in winter rainfall and a very pronounced increase in summertime heat waves. These trends are already detectable over the historic period. Hence, it is beneficial to forecast seasonal droughts well in advance so that water managers and stakeholders can prepare to mitigate deleterious impacts. We developed a new cluster-based empirical forecast method to predict precipitation anomalies in winter. This algorithm considers not only the strength but also the pattern of the precursors. We compare our algorithm with dynamic forecast models and a canonical correlation analysis-based prediction method demonstrating that our prediction method performs better in terms of time and pattern correlation in the Mediterranean and European regions.

Detectability of change in winter precipitation within mountain landscapes: Spatial patterns and uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silverman, N. L.; Maneta, M. P.

2016-06-01

Detecting long-term change in seasonal precipitation using ground observations is dependent on the representativity of the point measurement to the surrounding landscape. In mountainous regions, representativity can be poor and lead to large uncertainties in precipitation estimates at high elevations or in areas where observations are sparse. If the uncertainty in the estimate is large compared to the long-term shifts in precipitation, then the change will likely go undetected. In this analysis, we examine the minimum detectable change across mountainous terrain in western Montana, USA. We ask the question: What is the minimum amount of change that is necessary to be detected using our best estimates of precipitation in complex terrain? We evaluate the spatial uncertainty in the precipitation estimates by conditioning historic regional climate model simulations to ground observations using Bayesian inference. By using this uncertainty as a null hypothesis, we test for detectability across the study region. To provide context for the detectability calculations, we look at a range of future scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble downscaled to 4 km resolution using the MACAv2-METDATA data set. When using the ensemble averages we find that approximately 65% of the significant increases in winter precipitation go undetected at midelevations. At high elevation, approximately 75% of significant increases in winter precipitation are undetectable. Areas where change can be detected are largely controlled by topographic features. Elevation and aspect are key characteristics that determine whether or not changes in winter precipitation can be detected. Furthermore, we find that undetected increases in winter precipitation at high elevation will likely remain as snow under climate change scenarios. Therefore, there is potential for these areas to offset snowpack loss at lower elevations and confound the effects of climate change on water resources.

Application of regional climate models to the Indian winter monsoon over the western Himalayas.

PubMed

Dimri, A P; Yasunari, T; Wiltshire, A; Kumar, P; Mathison, C; Ridley, J; Jacob, D

2013-12-01

The Himalayan region is characterized by pronounced topographic heterogeneity and land use variability from west to east, with a large variation in regional climate patterns. Over the western part of the region, almost one-third of the annual precipitation is received in winter during cyclonic storms embedded in westerlies, known locally as the western disturbance. In the present paper, the regional winter climate over the western Himalayas is analyzed from simulations produced by two regional climate models (RCMs) forced with large-scale fields from ERA-Interim. The analysis was conducted by the composition of contrasting (wet and dry) winter precipitation years. The findings showed that RCMs could simulate the regional climate of the western Himalayas and represent the atmospheric circulation during extreme precipitation years in accordance with observations. The results suggest the important role of topography in moisture fluxes, transport and vertical flows. Dynamical downscaling with RCMs represented regional climates at the mountain or even event scale. However, uncertainties of precipitation scale and liquid-solid precipitation ratios within RCMs are still large for the purposes of hydrological and glaciological studies. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

30,000 years of hydroclimatic variability in the coastal southwest United States: regional synthesis and forcings analysis.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirby, M. E.

2015-12-01

The coastal southwest United States is characterized by a winter dominated hydroclimate. Far from dependable, this region's supply of winter precipitation is highly variable and often characterized by hydrologic opposites - droughts and floods. Predicting future precipitation and hydrologic dynamics requires a paleoperspective. Here, we present an up-to-date synthesis of hydroclimatic variability over the past 30,000 years. A variety of terrestrial-based studies are examined and compared to understand patterns of regional hydroclimatic change. This comparison is extended into the San Joaquin Basin of California where future climate change will impact the region's agricultural stability and economy. Particularly interesting is the apparent role that Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) play in modulating the region's hydroclimate over a variety of timescales. Are past periods of above average Pacific SSTs analogs for future global warming? If yes, the region might expect an increase in winter precipitation as SSTs rise in response to global warming. However, how this potential precipitation increase is manifest is unknown. For example, will the intensity of precipitation events increase and thus present increased flood hazards and diminished freshwater capture? Finally, we present evidence for changes in the source of winter precipitation over time as well as ecological responses to past hydrologic change.

Intraseasonal variability of winter precipitation over central asia and the western tibetan plateau from 1979 to 2013 and its relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Heng; Liu, Xiaodong; Dong, Buwen

2017-09-01

Winter precipitation over Central Asia and the western Tibetan Plateau (CAWTP) is mainly a result of the interaction between the westerly circulation and the high mountains around the plateau. Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs), Singular Value Decomposition (SVD), linear regression and composite analysis were used to analyze winter daily precipitation and other meteorological elements in this region from 1979 to 2013, in order to understand how interactions between the regional circulation and topography affect the intraseasonal variability in precipitation. The SVD analysis shows that the winter daily precipitation variability distribution is characterized by a dipole pattern with opposite signs over the northern Pamir Plateau and over the Karakoram Himalaya, similar to the second mode of EOF analysis. This dipole pattern of precipitation anomaly is associated with local anomalies in both the 700 hPa moisture transport and the 500 hPa geopotential height and is probably caused by oscillations in the regional and large-scale circulations, which can influence the westerly disturbance tracks and water vapor transport. The linear regression shows that the anomalous mid-tropospheric circulation over CAWTP corresponds to an anti-phase variation of the 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies over the southern and northern North Atlantic 10 days earlier (at 95% significance level), that bears a similarity to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The composite analysis reveals that the NAO impacts the downstream regions including CAWTP by controlling south-north two branches of the middle latitude westerly circulation around the Eurasian border. During the positive phases of the NAO, the northern branch of the westerly circulation goes around the northwest Tibetan Plateau, whereas the southern branch encounters the southwest Tibetan Plateau, which leads to reduced precipitation over the northern Pamir Plateau and increased precipitation over the Karakoram Himalaya, and vice versa.

Younger Dryas equilibrium line altitudes and precipitation patterns in the Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kerschner, Hanns; Moran, Andrew; Ivy-Ochs, Susan

2016-04-01

Moraine systems of the "Egesen Stadial" are widespread and easily identifiable features in the Alps. Absolute dating with terrestrial cosmogenic radionuclides shows that the maximum extent was reached during the early Younger Dryas (YD), probably as a reaction to the intense climatic downturn subsequent to Lateglacial Interstadial. In recent years, several new studies and the availability of high-quality laser-scan hillshades and orthophotos allowed a significant extension of the database of YD glaciers as "palaeoprecipitation gauges" to large hitherto unmapped regions in the Austrian and Swiss Alps. The equilibrium line altitude (ELA) of the glaciers and its lowering relative to the Little Ice Age ELA (dELA) shows a distinct and systematic spatial pattern. Along the northern slope of the Alps, dELAs are usually large (around 400 m and perhaps even more), while dELAs range around 200 m in the well sheltered areas of the central Alps, e.g. in the Engadine and in western Tyrol. Both stochastic glacier-climate models (e.g. Ohmura et al. 1992) and the heat- and mass balance equation (Kuhn 1981) allow the reconstruction of precipitation change under the assumption of a spatially constant summer temperature depression, which in turn can be estimated from biological proxies. This allows to draw the spatial pattern of precipitation change with considerable detail. Precipitation change is clearly controlled by the local relief like high mountain chains, deeply incised and long valleys and mountain passes. Generally the contrast between the northern fringe of the Alps and the interior was more pronounced than today. Climate in the Northern and and Northwestern Alps was rather wet with precipitation totals eventually exceeding modern annual sums. The central Alps received 20 - 30% less precipitation than today, mainly due to reduced winter precipitation. In the southern Alps, still scarce spatial information points to precipitation sums which were approximately similar to modern values. As winter precipitation was probably much smaller than today, seasonal contrasts were more pronounced. In total, the pattern of YD precipitation change is remarkably similar to precipitation patterns caused by westerly and northwesterly cyclonic airflow during the present-day hydrologic winter (October - March). Kerschner, H., G. Kaser, R. Sailer (2000): Alpine Younger Dryas glaciers as paleo-precipitation gauges. Annals of Glaciology 31, 80-84. Kerschner, H. and S. Ivy-Ochs (2007): Palaeoclimate from glaciers: Examples from the Eastern Alps during the Alpine Lateglacial and early Holocene. Global and Planetary Change 60, 58-71.

Using Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnections to Analyze Interannual Precipitation Variability in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephan, C.; Klingaman, N. P.; Vidale, P. L.; Turner, A. G.; Demory, M. E.; Guo, L.

2017-12-01

Interannual rainfall variability in China affects agriculture, infrastructure and water resource management. A consistent and objective method, Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnection (EOT) analysis, is applied to precipitation observations over China in all seasons. Instead of maximizing the explained space-time variance, the method identifies regions in China that best explain the temporal variability in domain-averaged rainfall. It produces known teleconnections, that include high positive correlations with ENSO in eastern China in winter, along the Yangtze River in summer, and in southeast China during spring. New findings include that variability along the southeast coast in winter, in the Yangtze valley in spring, and in eastern China in autumn, are associated with extratropical Rossby wave trains. The same analysis is applied to six climate simulations of the Met Office Unified Model with and without air-sea coupling and at various horizontal resolutions of 40, 90 and 200 km. All simulations reproduce the observed patterns of interannual rainfall variability in winter, spring and autumn; the leading pattern in summer is present in all but one simulation. However, only in two simulations are all patterns associated with the observed physical mechanism. Coupled simulations capture more observed patterns of variability and associate more of them with the correct physical mechanism, compared to atmosphere-only simulations at the same resolution. Finer resolution does not improve the fidelity of these patterns or their associated mechanisms. Evaluating climate models by only geographical distribution of mean precipitation and its interannual variance is insufficient; attention must be paid to associated mechanisms.

Links between large-scale circulation patterns and streamflow in Central Europe: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steirou, Eva; Gerlitz, Lars; Apel, Heiko; Merz, Bruno

2017-06-01

We disentangle the relationships between streamflow and large-scale atmospheric circulation in Central Europe (CE), an area affected by climatic influences from different origins (Atlantic, Mediterranean and Continental) and characterized by diverse topography and flow regimes. Our literature review examines in detail the links between mean, high and low flows in CE and large-scale circulation patterns, with focus on two closely related phenomena, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Western-zonal circulation (WC). For both patterns, significant relations, consistent between different studies, are found for large parts of CE. The strongest links are found for the winter season, forming a dipole-like pattern with positive relationships with streamflow north of the Alps and the Carpathians for both indices and negative relationships for the NAO in the south. An influence of winter NAO is also detected in the amplitude and timing of snowmelt flows later in the year. Discharge in CE has further been linked to other large-scale climatic modes such as the Scandinavia pattern (SCA), the East Atlantic/West Russian pattern (EA/WR), the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and synoptic weather patterns such as the Vb weather regime. Different mechanisms suggested in the literature to modulate links between streamflow and the NAO are combined with topographical characteristics of the target area in order to explain the divergent NAO/WC influence on streamflow in different parts of CE. In particular, a precipitation mechanism seems to regulate winter flows in North-Western Germany, an area with short duration of snow cover and with rainfall-generated floods. The precipitation mechanism is also likely in Southern CE, where correlations between the NAO and temperature are low. Finally, in the rest of the study area (Northern CE, Alpine region), a joint precipitation-snow mechanism influences floods not only in winter, but also in the spring/snowmelt period, providing some possibilities for flood forecasting.

The role of internal variability in prolonging the California drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buenning, N. H.; Stott, L. D.

2015-12-01

The current drought in California has been one of the driest on record. Using atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs), recent studies have demonstrated that the low precipitation anomalies observed during the first three winters of the current drought are mostly attributable to changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice forcing. Here we show through AGCM simulations that the fourth and latest winter of the current drought is not attributable to SST and sea ice forcing, but instead a consequence of higher internal variability. Using the Global Spectral Model (GSM) we demonstrate how the surface forcing reproduces dry conditions over California for the first three winters of the current drought, similar to what other models produced. However, when forced with the SST and sea ice conditions for the winter of 2014-2015, GSM robustly simulates high precipitation conditions over California. This significantly differs with observed precipitation anomalies, which suggests a model deficiency or large influence of internal variability within the climate system during the winter of 2014-2015. Ensemble simulations with 234 realizations reveal that the surface forcing created a broader range of precipitation possibilities over California. Thus, the surface forcing caused a greater degree of internal variations, which was driven by a reduced latitudinal temperature gradient and amplified planetary waves over the Pacific. Similar amplified waves are also seen in 21st century climate projections of upper-level geopotential heights, suggesting that 21st century precipitation over California will become more variable and increasingly difficult to predict on seasonal timescales. When an El Nino pattern is applied to the surface forcing the precipitation further increases and the variance amongst model realizations is reduced, which indicates a strong likelihood of an anomalously wet 2015-2016 winter season.

A method of evaluating effects of antecedent precipitation on duststorms and its application to Yuma, Arizona, 1981-1988

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacKinnon, D.J.; Elder, D.F.; Helm, P.J.; Tuesink, M.F.; Nist, C.A.

1990-01-01

Precipitation causes several short- and long-term effects on wind-induced surface erodibility and subsequent dust emission. Among the principal effects considered by this paper are soil moisture, soil crusts, and vegetation. A quantitative method is developed to assess these effects using differences between the potential and the actual amounts of dust emitted from dust sources as inferred from surface meteorological measurements obtained downwind from those sources. The results of this assessment must be interpreted with caution, however, when the size and location of dust sources are unknown. Using meteorological data recorded near Yuma, Arizona at the Yuma Marine Corps Air Station (YMCAS), the method is applied to calculate the potential and actual amounts of dust emitted from upwind dust sources during the spring and fall/winter seasons between January 1, 1981 and May 31, 1988. (Spring is considered to be the period between February 1 and May 31; fall/winter, between October 1 and January 31.) Because summer precipitation is intermittent and wind patterns are localized, summer meteorological data are not used to evaluate regional correlations between precipitation and dust storms. For the period between 1981 and 1988, a correlation of -0.60 was found between fall/winter precipitation and the actual amount of dust emitted from sources upwind of YMCAS during the following spring. A particularly strong reduction in dust emission was noted during the springs of 1983 and 1984 following the start of an 'El Nino event' in fall/winter 1982. Photographs taken at a geological and meteorological data-collection (Geomet) site, located in the natural desert 25 km southeast of YMCAS, show a correspondence between increased antecedent precipitation recorded at the site and increased vegetation. Whereas the annual precipitation totals at YMCAS and the Geomet site from the beginning of 1982 through 1984 are high, their seasonal totals, especially during the fall/winter seasons, are disparate. This fall/winter precipitation disparity may account for evidence suggesting that significant vegetation growth occurred at dust sources upwind of YMCAS by spring 1983, but that such growth did not occur at the Geomet site until fall/ winter of 1983. Spatial inhomogeneity in fall/winter precipitation probably contributed to the relatively low correlation (-0.60) between fall/winter precipitation recorded at YMCAS and the actual amount of dust emitted from upwind sources during the following spring. ?? 1990 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

A teleconnection study of interannual sea surface temperature fluctuations in the northern North Atlantic and precipitation and runoff over Western Siberia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Peng, S.; Mysak, L.A.

The spatial distributions of northern North Atlantic sea surface temperature and the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere sea level pressure anomalies averaged over six consecutive warm SST winters (1951-1956) and six consecutive cold SST winters (1971-1976) are examined. Three SLP anomaly difference (i.e., warm - cold winters) centers, significant at the 5% level, are observed over the northern North Atlantic, Europe, and western Siberia. This anomaly pattern is consistent in principle with what was identified in a related analyses by Palmer and Sun, who used composite data from selected winter months. The SLP difference centers over the northern North Atlantic and westernmore » Siberia are in phase. The impact of the latter center upon the runoff from the underlying Ob and Yenisey rivers and especially the teleconnection between SST anomalies in the northern North Atlantic and runoff of those two rivers via the atmosphere are investigated. The temporal cross-correlation analyses of 50 years (1930-1979) of records of SST, precipitation, and runoff anomalies indicate that the winter SST anomalies in the northern North Atlantic are significantly correlated with the winter and following summer runoff fluctuations of the Ob and Yenisey rivers. Positive (negative) northern North Atlantic SST anomalies are related to less (more) precipitation, and hence, less (more) runoff, over western Siberia. Discussions of possible physical mechanisms and processes that lead to the above relationships are attempted. The analyses of spatial distributions of precipitation in the warm and cold SST winters suggest that precipitation fluctuations over Europe and western Siberia may be affected by shifts of cyclone tracks associated with the SST variations in the northern North Atlantic. 27 refs., 9 figs.« less

Evaluation of NASA's MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Lee, Jaechoul; Wehner, Michael F.; Collow, Allison

2016-01-01

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scale patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRA tends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1) MERRA shows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska and Kansas, which is most likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over the Gulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that the hurricane and winter seasons are contributing the most to these trend patterns in the southeastern United States. In addition, the increasing annual trend simulated by MERRA in the Gulf Coast region is due to an incorrect trend in winter precipitation extremes.

Evaluation of NASA’s MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

DOE PAGES

Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin; ...

2016-02-03

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC)U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scalemore » patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRAtends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1)MERRAshows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska andKansas, which ismost likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over theGulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that the hurricane and winter seasons are contributing the most to these trend patterns in the southeastern United States. The increasing annual trend simulated by MERRA in the Gulf Coast region is due to an incorrect trend in winter precipitation extremes.« less

Linking the pacific decadal oscillation to seasonal stream discharge patterns in Southeast Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Neal, E.G.; Todd, Walter M.; Coffeen, C.

2002-01-01

This study identified and examined differences in Southeast Alaskan streamflow patterns between the two most recent modes of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). Identifying relationships between the PDO and specific regional phenomena is important for understanding climate variability, interpreting historical hydrological variability, and improving water-resources forecasting. Stream discharge data from six watersheds in Southeast Alaska were divided into cold-PDO (1947-1976) and warm-PDO (1977-1998) subsets. For all watersheds, the average annual streamflows during cold-PDO years were not significantly different from warm-PDO years. Monthly and seasonal discharges, however, did differ significantly between the two subsets, with the warm-PDO winter flows being typically higher than the cold-PDO winter flows and the warm-PDO summer flows being typically lower than the cold-PDO flows. These results were consistent with and driven by observed temperature and snowfall patterns for the region. During warm-PDO winters, precipitation fell as rain and ran-off immediately, causing higher than normal winter streamflow. During cold-PDO winters, precipitation was stored as snow and ran off during the summer snowmelt, creating greater summer streamflows. The Mendenhall River was unique in that it experienced higher flows for all seasons during the warm-PDO relative to the cold-PDO. The large amount of Mendenhall River discharge caused by glacial melt during warm-PDO summers offset any flow reduction caused by lack of snow accumulation during warm-PDO winters. The effect of the PDO on Southeast Alaskan watersheds differs from other regions of the Pacific Coast of North America in that monthly/seasonal discharge patterns changed dramatically with the switch in PDO modes but annual discharge did not. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The boreal winter Madden-Julian Oscillation's influence on summertime precipitation in the greater Caribbean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curtis, Scott; Gamble, Douglas W.

2016-07-01

Precipitation totals in the greater Caribbean are known to be affected by interannual variability. In particular, dry conditions in the spring-summer have been physically linked to the positive phase of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the literature. In this study, it was found through regression analysis that an active Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in winter geographically focused over the Maritime Continent contributes to a positive NAO in March via the generation of Rossby waves in the Northern Hemisphere. Specifically, a negative Pacific-North American pattern develops in the winter and transitions to an Atlantic pattern in spring. The positive NAO is a transient feature of this evolving wave train, but a center of significant positive 200 hPa geopotential heights is entrenched over the southeast U.S. throughout the February to May time period and is manifested as high pressure at the surface. The southern flank of this system increases the speeds of the trade winds and leads to a cooling of the Caribbean sea surface temperatures and, thus, convection suppression and reduced precipitation. Thus, this study advances our understanding of the climate of the greater Caribbean by using climate teleconnections to relate the MJO to rainfall in the region.

Influence of sub-kilometer precipitation datasets on simulated snowpack and glacier winter balance in alpine terrain.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vionnet, Vincent; Six, Delphine; Auger, Ludovic; Lafaysse, Matthieu; Quéno, Louis; Réveillet, Marion; Dombrowski-Etchevers, Ingrid; Thibert, Emmanuel; Dumont, Marie

2017-04-01

Capturing spatial and temporal variabilities of meteorological conditions at fine scale is necessary for modelling snowpack and glacier winter mass balance in alpine terrain. In particular, precipitation amount and phase are strongly influenced by the complex topography. In this study, we assess the impact of three sub-kilometer precipitation datasets (rainfall and snowfall) on distributed simulations of snowpack and glacier winter mass balance with the detailed snowpack model Crocus for winter 2011-2012. The different precipitation datasets at 500-m grid spacing over part of the French Alps (200*200 km2 area) are coming either from (i) the SAFRAN precipitation analysis specially developed for alpine terrain, or from (ii) operational outputs of the atmospheric model AROME at 2.5-km grid spacing downscaled to 500 m with fixed lapse rate or from (iii) a version of the atmospheric model AROME at 500-m grid spacing. Others atmospherics forcings (air temperature and humidity, incoming longwave and shortwave radiation, wind speed) are taken from the AROME simulations at 500-m grid spacing. These atmospheric forcings are firstly compared against a network of automatic weather stations. Results are analysed with respect to station location (valley, mid- and high-altitude). The spatial pattern of seasonal snowfall and its dependency with elevation is then analysed for the different precipitation datasets. Large differences between SAFRAN and the two versions of AROME are found at high-altitude. Finally, results of Crocus snowpack simulations are evaluated against (i) punctual in-situ measurements of snow depth and snow water equivalent, and (ii) maps of snow covered areas retrieved from optical satellite data (MODIS). Measurements of winter accumulation of six glaciers of the French Alps are also used and provide very valuable information on precipitation at high-altitude where the conventional observation network is scarce. This study illustrates the potential and limitations of high-resolution atmospheric models to drive simulations of snowpack and glacier winter mass balance in alpine terrain.

A method for deterministic statistical downscaling of daily precipitation at a monsoonal site in Eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yonghe; Feng, Jinming; Liu, Xiu; Zhao, Yadi

2017-12-01

Statistical downscaling (SD) is a method that acquires the local information required for hydrological impact assessment from large-scale atmospheric variables. Very few statistical and deterministic downscaling models for daily precipitation have been conducted for local sites influenced by the East Asian monsoon. In this study, SD models were constructed by selecting the best predictors and using generalized linear models (GLMs) for Feixian, a site in the Yishu River Basin and Shandong Province. By calculating and mapping Spearman rank correlation coefficients between the gridded standardized values of five large-scale variables and daily observed precipitation, different cyclonic circulation patterns were found for monsoonal precipitation in summer (June-September) and winter (November-December and January-March); the values of the gridded boxes with the highest absolute correlations for observed precipitation were selected as predictors. Data for predictors and predictands covered the period 1979-2015, and different calibration and validation periods were divided when fitting and validating the models. Meanwhile, the bootstrap method was also used to fit the GLM. All the above thorough validations indicated that the models were robust and not sensitive to different samples or different periods. Pearson's correlations between downscaled and observed precipitation (logarithmically transformed) on a daily scale reached 0.54-0.57 in summer and 0.56-0.61 in winter, and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency between downscaled and observed precipitation reached 0.1 in summer and 0.41 in winter. The downscaled precipitation partially reflected exact variations in winter and main trends in summer for total interannual precipitation. For the number of wet days, both winter and summer models were able to reflect interannual variations. Other comparisons were also made in this study. These results demonstrated that when downscaling, it is appropriate to combine a correlation-based predictor selection across a spatial domain with GLM modeling.

Multi-scale heterogeneity in the temporal origin of water taken up by trees water uptake inferred using stable isotopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, S. T.; Kirchner, J. W.; Braun, S.; Siegwolf, R. T.; Goldsmith, G. R.

2017-12-01

Xylem water isotopic composition can reveal how water moves through soil and is subsequently taken up by plants. By examining how xylem water isotopes vary across distinct climates and soils, we test how these site characteristics control critical-zone water movement and tree uptake. Xylem water was collected from over 900 trees at 191 sites across Switzerland during a 10-day period in mid-summer 2015. Sites contained oak, beech and/or spruce trees and ranged in elevation from 260 to 1870 m asl with mean annual precipitation from 700 to 2060 mm. Xylem water samples were analyzed for 2H and 18O using isotope ratio mass spectrometry. Patterns in the temporal origin of xylem water showed regional differences. For example, trees in the southern and alpine regions had xylem water isotopic signatures that more closely resembled summer precipitation. The isotopic spatial range observed for mid-summer xylem waters was similar to the seasonal range of precipitation; that is, mid-summer xylem water at some sites resembled summer precipitation, and at other sites resembled winter precipitation. Xylem water from spruces, oaks, and beeches at the same sites did not differ from each other, despite these species having different rooting habits. Across all sites and species, precipitation amount correlated positively with xylem δ18O. In higher-precipitation areas, summer rain apparently displaces or mixes with older (winter) stored waters, thus reducing the winter-water isotopic signal in xylem water. Alternatively, in areas with limited precipitation, xylem water more closely matched winter water, indicating greater use of older stored water. We conclude that regional variations in precipitation deficits determine variations in the turnover rate of plant-available soil water and storage.

Adjustment of spatio-temporal precipitation patterns in a high Alpine environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrnegger, Mathew; Senoner, Tobias; Nachtnebel, Hans-Peter

2018-01-01

This contribution presents a method for correcting the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation fields in a mountainous environment. The approach is applied within a flood forecasting model in the Upper Enns catchment in the Central Austrian Alps. Precipitation exhibits a large spatio-temporal variability in Alpine areas. Additionally the density of the monitoring network is low and measurements are subjected to major errors. This can lead to significant deficits in water balance estimation and stream flow simulations, e.g. for flood forecasting models. Therefore precipitation correction factors are frequently applied. For the presented study a multiplicative, stepwise linear correction model is implemented in the rainfall-runoff model COSERO to adjust the precipitation pattern as a function of elevation. To account for the local meteorological conditions, the correction model is derived for two elevation zones: (1) Valley floors to 2000 m a.s.l. and (2) above 2000 m a.s.l. to mountain peaks. Measurement errors also depend on the precipitation type, with higher magnitudes in winter months during snow fall. Therefore, additionally, separate correction factors for winter and summer months are estimated. Significant improvements in the runoff simulations could be achieved, not only in the long-term water balance simulation and the overall model performance, but also in the simulation of flood peaks.

Shifting covariability of North American summer monsoon precipitation with antecedent winter precipitation

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Clark, M.P.

2006-01-01

Previous research has suggested that a general inverse relation exists between winter precipitation in the southwestern United states (US) and summer monsoon precipitation. In addition, it has been suggested that this inverse relation between winter precipitation and the magnitude of the southwestern US monsoon breaks down under certain climatic conditions that override the regional winter/monsoon precipitation relations. Results from this new study indicate that the winter/monsoon precipitation relations do not break down, but rather shift location through time. The strength of winter/monsoon precipitation relations, as indexed by 20-year moving correlations between winter precipitation and monsoon precipitation, decreased in Arizona after about 1970, but increased in New Mexico. The changes in these correlations appear to be related to an eastward shift in the location of monsoon precipitation in the southwestern US. This eastward shift in monsoon precipitation and the changes in correlations with winter precipitation also appear to be related to an eastward shift in July/August atmospheric circulation over the southwestern US that resulted in increased monsoon precipitation in New Mexico. Results also indicate that decreases in sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central North Pacific Ocean also may be associated with th changes in correlations between winter and monsoon precipitation. Copyright ?? 2006 Royal Meteorological Society.

Tree Ring Chronologies in Mexico and Dendroclimatic and Ecological Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villanueva-Diaz, J.; Cerano-Paredes, J.; Stahle, D. W.; Therrell, M. D.; Luckman, B. H.

2007-05-01

The understanding of historic hydroclimate variability is basic to determine the impact of atmospheric circulatory patterns and to plan for a proper management of limited water resources and ecosystem conservation purposes. The objective of this study was to develop a network of tree-ring chronologies for climate reconstruction and to analyze the influence of the ENSO warm phase in northern Mexico by using the Tropical Rainfall Index. Climatic sensitive tree-ring chronologies were developed in mountain ranges and riparian ecosystems of the Sierras Madre Oriental and Occidental, and central Mexico. A grid of over 30 new Douglas-fir, baldcypress, and pinyon pine chronologies were developed and seasonal winter-spring and summer precipitation reconstructions have been produced for northern and central Mexico. The seasonal winter-spring precipitation reconstructions extended 353 years (1450 - 2002) and 530 years (1472 - 2002) for Chihuahua, 228 years (1765 - 1993) and 504 years (1500 - 2003) for Durango, 602 years (1400 - 2002) for Nuevo Leon, 522 years (1474 - 1995) for Tamaulipas; and 342 years (1659 - 2001) and 410 years (1595 - 2004) for Coahuila. Some of the low frequency events were specific for each reconstruction, but common low frequency events (decadal resolution) were present in most of the reconstructions; specific cases are the droughts of the 1780s, 1810s, 1860s, 1870s, 1950s, and 1990s; and the wet episodes of the 1820s, 1830s, and 1890s.Trends in dry or wet periods were disrupted by above or below normal precipitation as affected by the ENSO phenomena, especially in the winter- spring period when this circulatory pattern produced in times abundant rains in northern Mexico. However, the ENSO influence on winter-spring precipitation has fluctuated through time. Cold fronts and hurricanes impacting the Gulf of Mexico may explain some of the hydrological behavior detected for northeastern Mexico. These results indicate that winter-spring hydroclimate variability in northern Mexico is influenced by a range of atmospheric circulatory patterns, and a greater grid of tree-ring chronologies should be developed to better explain climatic variability in this region. Currently, a couple of summer precipitation reconstructions have been developed and others are in process, but future research will focus on this issue. Summer rainfall represents over 70% of the annual precipitation in Mexico and provides water for agriculture, forest productivity, and other uses. On the other hand, fire frequency and forest dynamic studies are in process for restoration and conservation purposes.

Estimation of the isotopic composition and origins of winter precipitation over Japan using a regional isotope circulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanoue, M.; Ichiyanagi, K.; Yoshimura, K.; Shimada, J.; Hirabayashi, Y.

2017-12-01

Understanding the dynamics of the origins of precipitation (i.e., vapor source regions of evaporated moisture) is useful for long-term forecasting and calibration of water isotope thermometer. In the Asian monsoon region, vapor source regions are identified by the deuterium excess (d-excess; defined as δD - 8 • δ18O) of precipitation because its values mainly reflect humidity conditions during evaporation at the source regions. In Japan, previous studies assumed the Sea of Japan to be the dominant source of winter precipitation when the d-excess value in winter is >20‰ or higher than the average value in summer. Because this assumption is based on an interpretation that the high d-excess value is due to an interaction between the continental winter monsoon (WM) and warm sea surface at the Sea of Japan, it may not be appropriate for winter precipitation caused by extratropical cyclones (EC). Here, we utilized a regional isotope circulation model and then clarified local patterns of isotopic composition and the origins of precipitation in the WM and EC types over Japan. The results indicated that moisture originating from the Sea of Japan made the highest contribution to precipitation on the Sea of Japan side of Japan in the WM type, whereas the Pacific Ocean was the dominant source of precipitation over Japan in the EC type. Because d-excess values were higher in the WM than in the EC type, we can assume that the Sea of Japan was the dominant source of precipitation on the Sea of Japan side when the d-excess value was high. Because precipitation on the Pacific Ocean side and the Kyushu island of Japan was mainly caused by the EC type, we could not identify the dominant source of precipitation as the Sea of Japan from only the d-excess values in these regions. We also found that WM activity could be estimated from observed d-excess values due to a clear positive correlation between simulated d-excess values and the activity.

Asynchronous vegetation phenology enhances winter body condition of a large mobile herbivore.

PubMed

Searle, Kate R; Rice, Mindy B; Anderson, Charles R; Bishop, Chad; Hobbs, N T

2015-10-01

Understanding how spatial and temporal heterogeneity influence ecological processes forms a central challenge in ecology. Individual responses to heterogeneity shape population dynamics, therefore understanding these responses is central to sustainable population management. Emerging evidence has shown that herbivores track heterogeneity in nutritional quality of vegetation by responding to phenological differences in plants. We quantified the benefits mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) accrue from accessing habitats with asynchronous plant phenology in northwest Colorado over 3 years. Our analysis examined both the direct physiological and indirect environmental effects of weather and vegetation phenology on mule deer winter body condition. We identified several important effects of annual weather patterns and topographical variables on vegetation phenology in the home ranges of mule deer. Crucially, temporal patterns of vegetation phenology were linked with differences in body condition, with deer tending to show poorer body condition in areas with less asynchronous vegetation green-up and later vegetation onset. The direct physiological effect of previous winter precipitation on mule deer body condition was much less important than the indirect effect mediated by vegetation phenology. Additionally, the influence of vegetation phenology on body fat was much stronger than that of overall vegetation productivity. In summary, changing annual weather patterns, particularly in relation to seasonal precipitation, have the potential to alter body condition of this important ungulate species during the critical winter period. This finding highlights the importance of maintaining large contiguous areas of spatially and temporally variable resources to allow animals to compensate behaviourally for changing climate-driven resource patterns.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC)U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scalemore » patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRAtends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1)MERRAshows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska andKansas, which ismost likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over theGulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that the hurricane and winter seasons are contributing the most to these trend patterns in the southeastern United States. The increasing annual trend simulated by MERRA in the Gulf Coast region is due to an incorrect trend in winter precipitation extremes.« less

Precipitation, temperature, and teleconnection signals across the combined North American, Monsoon Asia, and Old World Drought Atlases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smerdon, J. E.; Baek, S. H.; Coats, S.; Williams, P.; Cook, B.; Cook, E. R.; Seager, R.

2017-12-01

The tree-ring-based North American Drought Atlas (NADA), Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA), and Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA) collectively yield a near-hemispheric gridded reconstruction of hydroclimate variability over the last millennium. To test the robustness of the large-scale representation of hydroclimate variability across the drought atlases, the joint expression of seasonal climate variability and teleconnections in the NADA, MADA, and OWDA are compared against two global, observation-based PDSI products. Predominantly positive (negative) correlations are determined between seasonal precipitation (surface air temperature) and collocated tree-ring-based PDSI, with average Pearson's correlation coefficients increasing in magnitude from boreal winter to summer. For precipitation, these correlations tend to be stronger in the boreal winter and summer when calculated for the observed PDSI record, while remaining similar for temperature. Notwithstanding these differences, the drought atlases robustly express teleconnection patterns associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). These expressions exist in the drought atlas estimates of boreal summer PDSI despite the fact that these modes of climate variability are dominant in boreal winter, with the exception of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. ENSO and NAO teleconnection patterns in the drought atlases are particularly consistent with their well-known dominant expressions in boreal winter and over the OWDA domain, respectively. Collectively, our findings confirm that the joint Northern Hemisphere drought atlases robustly reflect large-scale patterns of hydroclimate variability on seasonal to multidecadal timescales over the 20th century and are likely to provide similarly robust estimates of hydroclimate variability prior to the existence of widespread instrumental data.

Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO2 emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Leduc, Martin; Damon Matthews, H.

2017-07-01

Cumulative CO2 emissions are near linearly related to both global and regional changes in annual-mean surface temperature. These relationships are known as the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) and the regional TCRE (RTCRE), and have been shown to remain approximately constant over a wide range of cumulative emissions. Here, we assessed how well this relationship holds for seasonal patterns of temperature change, as well as for annual-mean and seasonal precipitation patterns. We analyzed an idealized scenario with CO2 concentration growing at an annual rate of 1% using data from 12 Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Seasonal RTCRE values for temperature varied considerably, with the highest seasonal variation evident in the Arctic, where RTCRE was about 5.5 °C per Tt C for boreal winter and about 2.0 °C per Tt C for boreal summer. Also the precipitation response in the Arctic during boreal winter was stronger than during other seasons. We found that emission-normalized seasonal patterns of temperature change were relatively robust with respect to time, though they were sub-linear with respect to emissions particularly near the Arctic. Moreover, RTCRE patterns for precipitation could not be quantified robustly due to the large internal variability of precipitation. Our results suggest that cumulative CO2 emissions are a useful metric to predict regional and seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature. This extension of the TCRE framework to seasonal and regional climate change is helpful for communicating the link between emissions and climate change to policy-makers and the general public, and is well-suited for impact studies that could make use of estimated regional-scale climate changes that are consistent with the carbon budgets associated with global temperature targets.

Causes of the 2011-14 California Drought

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seager, Richard; Hoerling, Martin; Schubert, Siegfried; Wang, Hailan; Lyon, Bradfield; Kumar, Arun; Nakamura, Jennifer; Henderson, Naomi

2015-01-01

The causes of the California drought during November-April winters of 2011/12-2013/14 are analyzed using observations and ensemble simulations with seven atmosphere models forced by observed SSTs. Historically, dry California winters are most commonly associated with a ridge off the west coast but no obvious SST forcing. Wet winters are most commonly associated with a trough off the west coast and an El Nino event. These attributes of dry and wet winters are captured by many of the seven models. According to the models, SST forcing can explain up to a third of California winter precipitation variance. SST forcing was key to sustaining a high pressure ridge over the west coast and suppressing precipitation during the three winters. In 2011/12 this was a response to a La Nina event, whereas in 2012/13 and 2013/14 it appears related to a warm west-cool east tropical Pacific SST pattern. All models contain a mode of variability linking such tropical Pacific SST anomalies to a wave train with a ridge off the North American west coast. This mode explains less variance than ENSO and Pacific decadal variability, and its importance in 2012/13 and 2013/14 was unusual. The models from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5) project rising greenhouse gases to cause changes in California all-winter precipitation that are very small compared to recent drought anomalies. However, a long-term warming trend likely contributed to surface moisture deficits during the drought. As such, the precipitation deficit during the drought was dominated by natural variability, a conclusion framed by discussion of differences between observed and modeled tropical SST trends.

Effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and global warming on drought in the US Southwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grossmann, I.

2012-12-01

Droughts are among the most expensive weather related disasters in the US. In the semi-arid regions of the US Southwest, where average annual rainfall is already very low, multiyear droughts can have large economic, societal and ecological impacts. The US Southwest relies on annual precipitation maxima during winter and the North American Monsoon (NAM), both of which undergo considerable interannual variability associated with large-scale climate patterns, in particular ENSO, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The region is also part of the subtropical belt projected to become more arid in a warming climate. These impacts have not been combined and compared with projections of long-term variations due to natural climate patterns. This study addresses this need by deriving future projections of rainfall departures for Arizona and New Mexico with the PDO and AMO and combining these with projected global warming impacts. Depending on the precipitation dataset used, the impacts for the ongoing negative PDO phase are projected to be between 1-1.6 times as large as the multi-model means projection of precipitation minus evaporation during 2020-2040 in the IPCC A1B Scenario. The projected precipitation impacts of a combined negative PDO and positive AMO phase are between 1-2 times as large as the A1B Scenario projection. The study also advances earlier work by addressing problems in detecting the effect of the PDO on precipitation. Given the different mechanisms with which the PDO affects precipitation during winter and the NAM season, precipitation impacts are here investigated on a monthly scale. The impacts of the PDO also vary with other climate patterns. This can be partly addressed by investigating precipitation departures in dependence on other patterns. It is further found that the long-term effect of the PDO can be more clearly separated from short-term variability by considering return periods of multi-year drought measures rather than return periods of simple drought measures.

Winter precipitation characteristics in western US related to atmospheric river landfalls: observations and model evaluations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J.; Guan, B.; Waliser, D. E.; Ferraro, R. D.; Case, J. L.; Iguchi, T.; Kemp, E.; Putman, W.; Wang, W.; Wu, D.; Tian, B.

2018-01-01

Winter precipitation (PR) characteristics in western United States (WUS) related to atmospheric river (AR) landfalls are examined using the observation-based PRISM data. The observed AR-related precipitation characteristics are in turn used to evaluate model precipitation data from the NASA MERRA2 reanalysis and from seven dynamical downscaling simulations driven by the MERRA2. Multiple metrics including mean bias, Taylor diagram, and two skill scores are used to measure model performance for three climatological sub-regions in WUS, Pacific Northwest (PNW), Pacific Southwest (PSW) and Great Basin (GB). All model data well represent the winter-mean PR with spatial pattern correlations of 0.8 or higher with PRISM for the three sub-regions. Higher spatial resolutions and/or the use of spectral nudging generally yield higher skill scores in simulating the geographical distribution of PR for the entire winter. The PRISM data shows that the AR-related fraction of winter PR and associated daily PR PDFs in each region vary strongly for landfall locations; AR landfalls in the northern WUS coast (NC) affect mostly PNW while those in the southern WUS coast (SC) affect both PSW and GB. NC (SC) landfalls increase the frequency of heavy PR in PNW (PSW and GB) but reduce it in PSW (PNW). All model data reasonably represent these observed variations in the AR-related winter PR fractions and the daily PR PDFs according to AR landfall locations. However, unlike for the entire winter period, no systematic effects of resolution and/or spectral nudging are identified in these AR-related PR characteristics. Dynamical downscaling in this study generally yield positive added values to the MERRA2 PR in the AR-related PR fraction for most sub-regions and landfall locations, most noticeably for PSW by NU-WRF. The downscaling also generate positive added value in p95 for PNW, but negative values for PSW and GB due to overestimation of heavy precipitation events.

Determine precipitation rates from visible and infrared satellite images of clouds by pattern recognition technique. Progress Report, 1 Jul. 1985 - 31 Mar. 1987 Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weinman, James A.; Garan, Louis

1987-01-01

A more advanced cloud pattern analysis algorithm was subsequently developed to take the shape and brightness of the various clouds into account in a manner that is more consistent with the human analyst's perception of GOES cloud imagery. The results of that classification scheme were compared with precipitation probabilities observed from ships of opportunity off the U.S. east coast to derive empirical regressions between cloud types and precipitation probability. The cloud morphology was then quantitatively and objectively used to map precipitation probabilities during two winter months during which severe cold air outbreaks were observed over the northwest Atlantic. Precipitation probabilities associated with various cloud types are summarized. Maps of precipitation probability derived from the cloud morphology analysis program for two months and the precipitation probability derived from thirty years of ship observation were observed.

The Role of Middle and Late Holocene North Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures on Precipitation Patterns in the Western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barron, J. A.; Anderson, L.; Starratt, S.; Wahl, D.; Anderson, L.; Addison, J. A.

2015-12-01

Comparative analyses of marine and terrestrial proxy records reveal regional changes in precipitation seasonality and relationships with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) as indicators of ocean-atmosphere dynamics. Enhanced La Niña-like conditions and cooler SSTs characterized the middle Holocene (~8.O to 4.0 ka) waters off northern California and in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Terrestrial records suggest that winters in the western US were generally dry, although wetter intervals attributed to winter precipitation beginning at ~5.5 ka are documented in coastal Oregon and Washington and in the northern Great Basin. Proxy studies suggest that the North American Monsoon (NAM) intensified beginning at ~7.5 ka, coinciding with warming Gulf of California SSTs coupled with a more northerly position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). If monsoonal precipitation spread northward into the eastern Great Basin and the western Rockies of Colorado, it is possible that wetter intervals of the middle Holocene in Nevada, Utah, and western Colorado may reflect increases in both summer and winter precipitation. El Niño event frequency and intensity began increasing between 4.0 and 3.0 ka, when modern ocean-atmosphere dynamics appear to have been established along the California coastal margin. Effects included cool, wet winters, enhanced spring coastal upwelling that extended into the summer, and higher September-October SSTs corresponding with the end of the coastal upwelling season. Winters became wetter in both the coastal and interior regions of the western US, while spring and summers generally became drier. The intensity of NAM precipitation also declined due to a more southerly mean position of the ITCZ. By ~3.0 cal ka the modern climatology of the margins of eastern North Pacific was established, resulting in intensification of the northwest-southwest precipitation dipole and the development of distinct Pacific Decadal Oscillation cycles.

Characteristics of the East Asian Winter Climate Associated with the Westerly Jet Stream and ENSO

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Song; Lau, K.-M.; Kim, K.-M.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

In this study, the influences of the East Asian jet stream (EAJS) and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variability of the East Asian winter climate are examined with a focus on the relative climate impacts of the two phenomena. Although the variations of the East Asian winter monsoon and the temperature and precipitation of China, Japan, and Korea are emphasized, the associated changes in the broad-scale atmospheric circulation patterns over Asia and the Pacific and in the extratropical North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) are also investigated. It is demonstrated that there is no apparent relationship between ENSO and the interannual variability of EAJS core. The EAJS and ENSO are associated with distinctly different patterns of atmospheric circulation and SST in the Asian-Pacific regions. While ENSO causes major climate signals in the Tropics and over the North Pacific east of the dateline, the EAJS produces significant changes in the atmospheric circulation over East Asia and western Pacific. In particular, the EAJS explains larger variance of the interannual signals of the East Asian trough, the Asian continental high, the Aleutian low, and the East Asian winter monsoon. When the EAJS is strong, all these atmospheric systems intensify significantly. The response of surface temperature and precipitation to EAJS variability and ENSO is more complex. In general, the East Asian winter climate is cold (warm) and dry (wet) when the EAJS is strong (weak) and it is warm during El Nino years. However, different climate signals are found during different La Nina years. In terms of linear correlation, both the temperature and precipitation of northern China, Korea, and central Japan are more significantly associated with the EAJS than with ENSO.

Global and European climate impacts of a slowdown of the AMOC in a high resolution GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, L. C.; Kahana, R.; Graham, T.; Ringer, M. A.; Woollings, T.; Mecking, J. V.; Wood, R. A.

2015-12-01

The impacts of a hypothetical slowdown in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are assessed in a state-of-the-art global climate model (HadGEM3), with particular emphasis on Europe. This is the highest resolution coupled global climate model to be used to study the impacts of an AMOC slowdown so far. Many results found are consistent with previous studies and can be considered robust impacts from a large reduction or collapse of the AMOC. These include: widespread cooling throughout the North Atlantic and northern hemisphere in general; less precipitation in the northern hemisphere midlatitudes; large changes in precipitation in the tropics and a strengthening of the North Atlantic storm track. The focus on Europe, aided by the increase in resolution, has revealed previously undiscussed impacts, particularly those associated with changing atmospheric circulation patterns. Summer precipitation decreases (increases) in northern (southern) Europe and is associated with a negative summer North Atlantic Oscillation signal. Winter precipitation is also affected by the changing atmospheric circulation, with localised increases in precipitation associated with more winter storms and a strengthened winter storm track. Stronger westerly winds in winter increase the warming maritime effect while weaker westerlies in summer decrease the cooling maritime effect. In the absence of these circulation changes the cooling over Europe's landmass would be even larger in both seasons. The general cooling and atmospheric circulation changes result in weaker peak river flows and vegetation productivity, which may raise issues of water availability and crop production.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tagestad, Jerry; Brooks, Matthew; Cullinan, Valerie

Mojave Desert ecosystem processes are dependent upon the amount and seasonality of precipitation. Multi-decadal periods of drought or above-average rainfall affect landscape vegetation condition, biomass and susceptibility to fire. The seasonality of precipitation events can also affect the likelihood of lightning, a key ignition source for fires. To develop an understanding of precipitation regimes and fire patterns we used monthly average precipitation data and GIS data representing burned areas from 1971-2010. We applied a K-means cluster analysis to the monthly precipitation data identifying three distinct precipitation seasons; winter (October – March), spring (April-June) and summer (July-September) and four discrete precipitationmore » regimes within the Mojave ecoregion.« less

Ecohydrology of dry regions: storage versus pulse soil water dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lauenroth, William K.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Bradford, John B.

2014-01-01

Although arid and semiarid regions are defined by low precipitation, the seasonal timing of temperature and precipitation can influence net primary production and plant functional type composition. The importance of precipitation seasonality is evident in semiarid areas of the western U.S., which comprise the Intermountain (IM) zone, a region that receives important winter precipitation and is dominated by woody plants and the Great Plains (GP), a region that receives primarily summer precipitation and is dominated by perennial grasses. Although these general relationships are well recognized, specific differences in water cycling between these regions have not been well characterized. We used a daily time step soil water simulation model and twenty sites from each region to analyze differences in soil water dynamics and ecosystem water balance. IM soil water patterns are characterized by storage of water during fall, winter, and spring resulting in relatively reliable available water during spring and early summer, particularly in deep soil layers. By contrast, GP soil water patterns are driven by pulse precipitation events during the warm season, resulting in fluctuating water availability in all soil layers. These contrasting patterns of soil water—storage versus pulse dynamics—explain important differences between the two regions. Notably, the storage dynamics of the IN sites increases water availability in deep soil layers, favoring the deeper rooted woody plants in that region, whereas the pulse dynamics of the Great Plains sites provide water primarily in surface layers, favoring the shallow-rooted grasses in that region. In addition, because water received when plants are either not active or only partially so is more vulnerable to evaporation and sublimation than water delivered during the growing season, IM ecosystems use a smaller fraction of precipitation for transpiration (47%) than GP ecosystems (49%). Recognizing the pulse-storage dichotomy in soil water regimes between the IM and GP regions may be useful for understanding the potential influence of climate changes on soil water patterns and resulting dominant plant functional groups in both regions.

Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Dissolved Organic Matter Characteristics in the Upper Willamette River Basin, Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, B. S.; Lajtha, K.

2014-12-01

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) leaching through soil affects soil carbon sequestration and the carbon metabolism of receiving water bodies. Improving our understanding of the sources and fate of DOM at varying spatial and temporal patterns is crucial for land management decisions. However, little is known about how DOM sources change with land use types and seasonal flow patterns. In the Willamette River Basin (WRB), which is home to Oregon's major cities including Portland and Salem, forested headwaters transition to agricultural and urban land. The climate of WRB has a distinctive seasonal pattern with dry warm summers and wet winters driven by winter precipitation and snowmelt runoff between November and March. This study examined DOM fluorescence characteristic in stream water from 21 locations collected monthly and 16 locations collected seasonally to identify the sources and fate of DOM in the upper WRB in contrasting land uses. DOC and dissolved organic nitrogen concentrations increased as the flow rate increased during winter precipitation at all sites. This indicates that increased flow rate increased the connectivity between land and nearby water bodies. DOM fluorescent properties varied among land use types. During the first precipitation event after a long dry summer, a microbial DOM signature in agricultural areas increased along with nitrate concentrations. This may be because accumulated nutrients on land during the dry season flowed to nearby streams during the first rain event and promoted microbial growth in the streams. During the month of the highest flow rate in 2014, sampling sites near forest showed evidence of a greater terrestrial DOM signature compared to its signature during the dry season. This indicates fluorescent DOM characteristics in streams vary as the flow connectivity changes even within the same land type.

ENSO Simulation in Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Models: Are the Current Models Better?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

AchutaRao, K; Sperber, K R

Maintaining a multi-model database over a generation or more of model development provides an important framework for assessing model improvement. Using control integrations, we compare the simulation of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and its extratropical impact, in models developed for the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report with models developed in the late 1990's (the so-called Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-2 [CMIP2] models). The IPCC models tend to be more realistic in representing the frequency with which ENSO occurs, and they are better at locating enhanced temperature variability over the eastern Pacific Ocean. When compared withmore » reanalyses, the IPCC models have larger pattern correlations of tropical surface air temperature than do the CMIP2 models during the boreal winter peak phase of El Nino. However, for sea-level pressure and precipitation rate anomalies, a clear separation in performance between the two vintages of models is not as apparent. The strongest improvement occurs for the modeling groups whose CMIP2 model tended to have the lowest pattern correlations with observations. This has been checked by subsampling the multi-century IPCC simulations in a manner to be consistent with the single 80-year time segment available from CMIP2. Our results suggest that multi-century integrations may be required to statistically assess model improvement of ENSO. The quality of the El Nino precipitation composite is directly related to the fidelity of the boreal winter precipitation climatology, highlighting the importance of reducing systematic model error. Over North America distinct improvement of El Nino forced boreal winter surface air temperature, sea-level pressure, and precipitation rate anomalies in the IPCC models occurs. This improvement, is directly proportional to the skill of the tropical El Nino forced precipitation anomalies.« less

Spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation extremes in the Poyang Lake basin, China: Changing properties and causes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, M.

2016-12-01

Under the background of climate change, extensive attentions have been paid on the increased extreme precipitation from the public and government. To analyze the influences of large-scale climate indices on the precipitation extremes, the spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation extremes in the Poyang Lake basin have been investigated using the Bayesian hierarchical method. The seasonal maximum one-day precipitation amount (Rx1day) was used to represent the seasonal precipitation extremes. Results indicated that spring Rx1day was affected by El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a positive ENSO event in the same year tends to decrease the spring Rx1day in the northern part of Poyang Lake Basin while increase the spring Rx1day in southeastern Poyang Lake Basin, a positive NAO events in the same year tends to increase the spring Rx1day in the southwest and northwest part of Poyang Lake basin while decrease the spring Rx1day in the eastern part of Poyang Lake basin; summer Rx1day was affected by Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), positive IOD events in the same year tend to increase the summer Rx1day of northern Poyang Lake basin while decrease summer Rx1day of southern Poyang Lake basin; autumn Rx1day was affected by ENSO, positive ENSO events in the same year tend to mainly increase the autumn Rx1day in the west part of Poyang Lake basin; winter Rx1day was mainly affected by the NAO, positive NAO events in the same year tend to mainly increase the winter Rx1day of southern Poyang Lake basin, while positive NAO events in the previous year tend to mainly increase the winter Rx1day in the central and northeast part of Poyang Lake basin. It is considered that the region with the negative vertical velocity is dominated by more precipitation and vice versa. Furthermore, field patterns of 500 hPa vertical velocity anomalies related to each climate index have further corroborated the influences of climate indices on the seasonal Rx1day, and these will be important to further understand the possible geophysical processes linking the teleconnections of each climate index on the seasonal extreme precipitation in the Poyang Lake basin.

Comparison of precipitation chemistry in the Central Rocky Mountains, Colorado, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heuer, K.; Tonnessen, K.A.; Ingersoll, G.P.

2000-01-01

Volume-weighted mean concentrations of nitrate (NO3-), ammonium (NH4+), and sulfate (SO42-) in precipitation were compared at high-elevation sites in Colorado from 1992 to 1997 to evaluate emission source areas to the east and west of the Rocky Mountains. Precipitation chemistry was measured by two sampling methods, the National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network (NADP/NTN) and snowpack surveys at maximum accumulation. Concentrations of NO3- and SO42- in winter precipitation were greater on the western slope of the Rockies, and concentrations of NO3- and NH4+ in summer precipitation were greater on the eastern slope. Summer concentrations in general were almost twice as high as winter concentrations. Seasonal weather patterns in combination with emission source areas help to explain these differences. This comparison shows that high-elevation ecosystems in Colorado are influenced by air pollution emission sources located on both sides of the Continental Divide. It also suggests that sources of nitrogen and sulfur located east of the Divide have a greater influence on precipitation chemistry in the Colorado Rockies. Copyright (C) 2000.

Local weather, regional climate, and annual survival of the northern spotted owl

USGS Publications Warehouse

Glenn, E.M.; Anthony, R.G.; Forsman, E.D.; Olson, G.S.

2011-01-01

We used an information-theoretical approach and Cormack-Jolly-Seber models for open populations in program MARK to examine relationships between survival rates of Northern Spotted Owls and a variety of local weather variables and long-term climate variables. In four of the six populations examined, survival was positively associated with wetter than normal conditions during the growing season or high summer temperatures. At the three study areas located at the highest elevations, survival was positively associated with winter temperature but also had a negative or quadratic relation with the number of storms and winter precipitation. A metaanalysis of all six areas combined indicated that annual survival was most strongly associated with phase shifts in the Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which reflect large-scale temperature and precipitation patterns in this region. Climate accounted for a variable amount (1-41%) of the total process variation in annual survival but for more year-to-year variation (3-66%) than did spatial variation among owl territories (0-7%). Negative associations between survival and cold, wet winters and nesting seasons were similar to those found in other studies of the Spotted Owl. The relationships between survival and growing-season precipitation and regional climate patterns, however, had not been reported for this species previously. Climate-change models for the first half of the 21st century predict warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers for the Pacific Northwest. Our results indicate that these conditions could decrease Spotted Owl survival in some areas. Copyright ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2011.

A new pattern of the moisture transport for precipitation related to the drastic decline in Arctic sea ice extent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gimeno-Sotelo, Luis; Nieto, Raquel; Vázquez, Marta; Gimeno, Luis

2018-05-01

In this study we use the term moisture transport for precipitation for a target region as the moisture coming to this region from its major moisture sources resulting in precipitation over the target region (MTP). We have identified changes in the pattern of moisture transport for precipitation over the Arctic region, the Arctic Ocean, and its 13 main subdomains concurrent with the major sea ice decline that occurred in 2003. The pattern consists of a general decrease in moisture transport in summer and enhanced moisture transport in autumn and early winter, with different contributions depending on the moisture source and ocean subregion. The pattern is statistically significant and consistent with changes in the vertically integrated moisture fluxes and frequency of circulation types. The results of this paper also reveal that the assumed and partially documented enhanced poleward moisture transport from lower latitudes as a consequence of increased moisture from climate change seems to be less simple and constant than typically recognised in relation to enhanced Arctic precipitation throughout the year in the present climate.

Decadal variability in the Northern Hemisphere winter circulation: Role of internal and external drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maliniemi, V.; Asikainen, T.; Mursula, K.

2017-12-01

Northern Hemisphere winter circulation is known to be affected by both internal and external (solar-related) forcings. Earlier studies have shown ENSO and volcanic activity to produce negative and positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) type responses, respectively. In addition, recent studies have shown a positive NAO response related to both geomagnetic activity (proxy for solar wind driven particle precipitation) and sunspot activity (proxy for solar irradiance). These solar-related signals have been suggested to be due to the changes in the polar vortex. Here the relative role of these four internal and external drivers on wintertime circulation in the Northern Hemisphere is studied. The phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is used to study the driver responses for different stratospheric conditions. Moreover, the effects are separated for early (Dec/Jan) and late (Feb/Mar) winter. The global pattern of ENSO is very similar (negative NAO) otherwise, but in early winter and westerly QBO the pattern is changed in the Atlantic sector to a weakly positive NAO. The positive NAO pattern due to volcanic activity is more pronounced for westerly QBO in both early and late winter. The positive NAO pattern produced by geomagnetic activity is obtained during easterly QBO phase in both early and late winter. Sunspot related NAO response in late winter is also strongly modulated by the QBO phase. These results imply that the stratospheric conditions expressed by QBO significantly modulate the way the internal and external drivers affect the Northern Hemisphere winter climate.

The Fate of Aspen in a World with Diminishing Snowpacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kavanagh, K.; Link, T. E.; Seyfried, M. S.; Kemp, K. B.

2010-12-01

Aspen (Populus tremuloides) productivity is tightly coupled with soil moisture. In the mountainous regions of the western USA, annual replenishment of soil moisture commonly occurs during snowmelt. Therefore, snow pack depth and duration can play an important role in sustaining aspen productivity. The presence of almost 50 years of detailed climate data across an elevational transect in the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed (RCEW) in southwestern Idaho offers a novel opportunity to better understand the role of shifting precipitation patterns on aspen productivity. Over the past 50 years, the proportion of the precipitation falling in the form of snow decreased by almost a factor of 2 at mid to low elevations in the RCEW, coupled with a roughly four week advance of snow ablation, and decline of large snow drifts that release moisture into the early summer. Results from growth ring increment, stable isotope analysis, sapflux and a process model (Biome BGC), will be used to determine the impact of shifting precipitation patterns on tree productivity along this transect over the past 50 years. Aspen trees located on moist microsites continue to transpire water and maintain high stomatal conductance 21 days later in the growing season relative to individuals on drier microsites. Predictions of net primary productivity (NPP) in aspen are very sensitive to precipitation patterns. NPP becomes negative as early as day 183 (90 days post budbreak) for years with little winter and spring precipitation whereas, in years with ample winter and spring precipitation, NPP remains positive until day 260 when leaf fall occurs. These results give unique insight into the conditions that deciduous tree species will encounter in a warming climate where snow water equivalent continues to diminish and soil moisture declines soon after budbreak occurs.

Factors favorable to frequent extreme precipitation in the upper Yangtze River Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Baoqiang; Fan, Ke

2013-08-01

Extreme precipitation events in the upper Yangtze River Valley (YRV) have recently become an increasingly important focus in China because they often cause droughts and floods. Unfortunately, little is known about the climate processes responsible for these events. This paper investigates factors favorable to frequent extreme precipitation events in the upper YRV. Our results reveal that a weakened South China Sea summer monsoon trough, intensified Eurasian-Pacific blocking highs, an intensified South Asian High, a southward subtropical westerly jet and an intensified Western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH) increase atmospheric instability and enhance the convergence of moisture over the upper YRV, which result in more extreme precipitation events. The snow depth over the eastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) in winter and sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over three key regions in summer are important external forcing factors in the atmospheric circulation anomalies. Deep snow on the Tibetan Plateau in winter can weaken the subsequent East Asian summer monsoon circulation above by increasing the soil moisture content in summer and weakening the land-sea thermal contrast over East Asia. The positive SSTA in the western North Pacific may affect southwestward extension of the WNPSH and the blocking high over northeastern Asia by arousing the East Asian-Pacific pattern. The positive SSTA in the North Atlantic can affect extreme precipitation event frequency in the upper YRV via a wave train pattern along the westerly jet between the North Atlantic and East Asia. A tripolar pattern from west to east over the Indian Ocean can strengthen moisture transport by enhancing Somali cross-equatorial flow.

Effects of teleconnection patterns on the atmospheric routes, precipitation and deposition amounts in the north-eastern Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Izquierdo, Rebeca; Alarcón, Marta; Aguillaume, Laura; Àvila, Anna

2014-06-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been identified as one of the atmospheric patterns which mostly influence the temporal evolution of precipitation and temperature in the Mediterranean area. Recently, the Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO) has also been proposed to describe the precipitation variability in the eastern Iberian Peninsula. This paper examines whether the chemical signature and/or the chemical deposition amounts recorded over NE Iberian Peninsula are influenced by these climatic variability patterns. Results show a more relevant role of the WeMO compared to NAO in the deposition of either marine (Cl-, Na+, Mg2+) or anthropogenic pollutants (H+, NH4+, NO3- and SO42-). A cluster classification of provenances indicated that in winter (December to March) fast Atlantic air flows correspond to positive WeMO indices, while negative WeMOi are associated to Northeastern and Southwestern circulations. The negative phase of WeMO causes the entry of air masses from the Mediterranean into the Iberian Peninsula, that are enriched with marine ions and ions of anthropogenic origin (NH4+, NO3- and SO42-). For these later, this suggests the advection over the Mediterranean of polluted air masses from southern Europe and the scavenging and deposition of this pollution by precipitation during the WeMO negative phases. This will carry transboundary pollutants to the NE Iberian Peninsula. However, local pollutants may also contribute, as precipitation events from the Mediterranean and the Atlantic (associated to both WeMO phases) may incorporate emissions that accumulate locally during the winter anticyclonic episodes typical of the region.

Relationships between teleconnection patterns and Turkish climatic extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baltacı, H.; Akkoyunlu, B. O.; Tayanç, M.

2017-12-01

This is a study on the effects of teleconnection patterns (TPs) on the extremes of temperature and precipitation over Turkey. Relationships between five teleconnection patterns, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), East Atlantic-Western Russia (EAWR), East Atlantic (EA), and Scandinavian (SCA) patterns, and 11 climate extreme indices were studied by using 94 uniformly distributed meteorological stations over Turkey for the period of 1965-2014. Analyzing strong positive and negative temperature deviations from the 50-year-winter means shows that such extremes can often be explained by using AO and EAWR patterns. During the negative AO, generally more warm days occur over Black Sea (r = -0.6) and Aegean regions (r = -0.7). This phase of AO also generates above-normal precipitation in the western parts of the Anatolian Peninsula (r around - 0.5). Winter-time negative AO is mainly associated with the presence of a deepened Genoa cyclone over Italy that can transport warm and moist air mass from Mediterranean Sea towards Turkey by strong westerly winds. In contrast, positive EAWR is mainly connected to cold nights over Black Sea (r = 0.6) and Aegean regions (r = 0.6) together with positive precipitation anomalies at the seaside stations of the eastern Black Sea region. On the other hand, when positive EAWR prevails, Azores high-pressure center expands towards continental Europe bringing cold air by strong northerly winds together with higher moisture transport from the Black Sea. These results could pave the way for new possibilities regarding the projection of extremes in downscaling techniques.

Simulation of seasonal US precipitation and temperature by the nested CWRF-ECHAM system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ligang; Liang, Xin-Zhong; DeWitt, David; Samel, Arthur N.; Wang, Julian X. L.

2016-02-01

This study investigates the refined simulation skill that results when the regional Climate extension of the Weather Research and Forecasting (CWRF) model is nested in the ECMWF Hamburg version 4.5 (ECHAM) atmospheric general circulation model over the United States during 1980-2009, where observed sea surface temperatures are used in both models. Over the contiguous US, for each of the four seasons from winter to fall, CWRF reduces the root mean square error of the ECHAM seasonal mean surface air temperature simulation by 0.19, 0.82, 2.02 and 1.85 °C, and increases the equitable threat score of seasonal mean precipitation by 0.18, 0.11, 0.09 and 0.12. CWRF also simulates much more realistically daily precipitation frequency and heavy precipitation events, typically over the Central Great Plains, Cascade Mountains and Gulf Coast States. These CWRF skill enhancements are attributed to the increased spatial resolution and physics refinements in representing orographic, terrestrial hydrology, convection, and cloud-aerosol-radiation effects and their interactions. Empirical orthogonal function analysis of seasonal mean precipitation and surface air temperature interannual variability shows that, in general, CWRF substantially improves the spatial distribution of both quantities, while temporal evolution (i.e. interannual variability) of the first 3 primary patterns is highly correlated with that of the driving ECHAM (except for summer precipitation), and they both have low temporal correlations against observations. During winter, when large-scale forcing dominates, both models also have similar responses to strong ENSO signals where they successfully capture observed precipitation composite anomalies but substantially fail to reproduce surface air temperature anomalies. When driven by the ECMWF Reanalysis Interim, CWRF produces a very realistic interannual evolution of large-scale precipitation and surface air temperature patterns where the temporal correlations with observations are significant. These results indicate that CWRF can greatly improve mesoscale regional climate structures but it cannot change interannual variations of the large-scale patterns, which are determined by the driving lateral boundary conditions.

Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO 2 emissions

DOE PAGES

Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Leduc, Martin; Matthews, H. Damon

2017-06-28

Cumulative CO 2 emissions are near linearly related to both global and regional changes in annual-mean surface temperature. These relationships are known as the transient climate response to cumulative CO 2 emissions (TCRE) and the regional TCRE (RTCRE), and have been shown to remain approximately constant over a wide range of cumulative emissions. Here, we assessed how well this relationship holds for seasonal patterns of temperature change, as well as for annual-mean and seasonal precipitation patterns. We analyzed an idealized scenario with CO 2 concentration growing at an annual rate of 1% using data from 12 Earth system models frommore » the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Seasonal RTCRE values for temperature varied considerably, with the highest seasonal variation evident in the Arctic, where RTCRE was about 5.5 °C per Tt C for boreal winter and about 2.0 °C per Tt C for boreal summer. Also the precipitation response in the Arctic during boreal winter was stronger than during other seasons. We found that emission-normalized seasonal patterns of temperature change were relatively robust with respect to time, though they were sub-linear with respect to emissions particularly near the Arctic. Moreover, RTCRE patterns for precipitation could not be quantified robustly due to the large internal variability of precipitation. Here, our results suggest that cumulative CO 2 emissions are a useful metric to predict regional and seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature. This extension of the TCRE framework to seasonal and regional climate change is helpful for communicating the link between emissions and climate change to policy-makers and the general public, and is well-suited for impact studies that could make use of estimated regional-scale climate changes that are consistent with the carbon budgets associated with global temperature targets.« less

Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO 2 emissions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Leduc, Martin; Matthews, H. Damon

Cumulative CO 2 emissions are near linearly related to both global and regional changes in annual-mean surface temperature. These relationships are known as the transient climate response to cumulative CO 2 emissions (TCRE) and the regional TCRE (RTCRE), and have been shown to remain approximately constant over a wide range of cumulative emissions. Here, we assessed how well this relationship holds for seasonal patterns of temperature change, as well as for annual-mean and seasonal precipitation patterns. We analyzed an idealized scenario with CO 2 concentration growing at an annual rate of 1% using data from 12 Earth system models frommore » the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Seasonal RTCRE values for temperature varied considerably, with the highest seasonal variation evident in the Arctic, where RTCRE was about 5.5 °C per Tt C for boreal winter and about 2.0 °C per Tt C for boreal summer. Also the precipitation response in the Arctic during boreal winter was stronger than during other seasons. We found that emission-normalized seasonal patterns of temperature change were relatively robust with respect to time, though they were sub-linear with respect to emissions particularly near the Arctic. Moreover, RTCRE patterns for precipitation could not be quantified robustly due to the large internal variability of precipitation. Here, our results suggest that cumulative CO 2 emissions are a useful metric to predict regional and seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature. This extension of the TCRE framework to seasonal and regional climate change is helpful for communicating the link between emissions and climate change to policy-makers and the general public, and is well-suited for impact studies that could make use of estimated regional-scale climate changes that are consistent with the carbon budgets associated with global temperature targets.« less

Variations of annual and seasonal runoff in Guangdong Province, south China: spatiotemporal patterns and possible causes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qiang; Xiao, Mingzhong; Singh, Vijay P.; Xu, Chong-Yu; Li, Jianfeng

2015-06-01

In this study, we thoroughly analyzed spatial and temporal distributions of runoff and their relation with precipitation changes based on monthly runoff dataset at 25 hydrological stations and monthly precipitation at 127 stations in Guangdong Province, south China. Trends of the runoff and precipitation are detected using Mann-Kendall trend test technique. Correlations between runoff and precipitation are tested using Spearman's and Pearson's correlation coefficients. The results indicate that: (1) annual maximum monthly runoff is mainly in decreasing tendency and significant increasing annual minimum monthly runoff is observed in the northern and eastern Guangdong Province. In addition, annual mean runoff is observed to be increasing at the stations located in the West and North Rivers and the coastal region; (2) analysis of seasonal runoff variations indicates increasing runoff in spring, autumn and winter. Wherein, significant increase of runoff is found at 8 stations and only 3 stations are dominated by decreasing runoff in winter; (3) runoff changes of the Guangdong Province are mainly the results of precipitation changes. The Guangdong Province is wetter in winter, spring and autumn. Summer is coming to be drier as reflected by decreasing runoff in the season; (4) both precipitation change and water reservoirs also play important roles in the increasing of annual minimum monthly streamflow. Seasonal shifts of runoff variations may pose new challenges for the water resources management under the influences of climate changes and intensifying human activities.

The effect of the East Atlantic pattern on the precipitation δ18O-NAO relationship in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Comas-Bru, L.; McDermott, F.; Werner, M.

2016-10-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is known to influence precipitation δ18O (δ18Op) through its control on air temperature and on the trajectory of the westerly winds that carry moisture onto Europe during boreal winters. Hence, paleoclimate studies seeking to reconstruct the NAO can exploit the δ18O signal that is commonly preserved in natural archives such as stalagmites, ice cores, tree rings and lake sediments. However, such reconstructions should consider the uncertainties that arise from non-stationarities in the δ18Op-NAO relationship. Here, new insights into the causes of these temporal non-stationarities are presented for the European region using both observations (GNIP database) and the output of an isotope-enabled general circulation model (ECHAM5-wiso). The results show that, although the East Atlantic (EA) pattern is generally uncorrelated to δ18Op during the instrumental period, its polarity affects the δ18Op-NAO relationship. Non-stationarities in this relationship result from spatial shifts of the δ18Op-NAO correlated areas as a consequence of different NAO/EA combinations. These shifts are consistent with those reported previously for NAO-winter climate variables and the resulting non-stationarities mean that δ18O-based NAO reconstructions could be compromised if the balance of positive and negative NAO/EA states differs substantially in a calibration period compared with the period of interest in the past. The same approach has been followed to assess the relationships between δ18Op and both winter total precipitation and winter mean surface air temperature, with similar results. Crucially, this study also identifies regions within Europe where temporal changes in the NAO, air temperature and precipitation can be more robustly reconstructed using δ18O time series from natural archives, irrespective of concomitant changes in the EA.

Mid-Holocene climates of the Americas: A dynamical response to changed seasonality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harrison, S.P.; Kutzbach, J.-E.; Liu, Z.; Bartlein, P.J.; Otto-Bliesner, B.; Muhs, D.; Prentice, I.C.; Thompson, R.S.

2003-01-01

Simulations of the climatic response to mid-Holocene (6 ka BP) orbital forcing with two coupled ocean-atmosphere models (FOAM and CSM) show enhancement of monsoonal precipitation in parts of the American Southwest, Central America and northern-most South America during Northern Hemisphere summer. The enhanced onshore flow that brings precipitation into Central America is caused by a northward displacement of the inter-tropical convergence zone, driven by cooling of the equatorial and warming of the northern subtropical and mid-latitude ocean. Ocean feedbacks also enhance precipitation over the American Southwest, although the increase in monsoon precipitation there is largely driven by increases in land-surface temperature. The northward shift in the equatorial precipitation band that causes enhanced precipitation in Central America and the American Southwest has a negative feedback effect on monsoonal precipitation in northern South America. The simulations demonstrate that mid-Holocene aridity in the mid-continent of North America is dynamically linked to the orbitally induced enhancement of the summer monsoon in the American Southwest, with a spatial structure (wet in the Southwest and dry in the mid-continent) similar to that found in strong monsoon years today. Changes in winter precipitation along the west coast of North America, in Central America and along the Gulf Coast, caused by southward-displacement of the westerly storm tracks, indicate that changes in the Northern Hemisphere winter monsoon also play a role in regional climate changes during the mid-Holocene. Although the simulations with FOAM and CSM differ in detail, the general mechanisms and patterns are common to both. The model results thus provide a coherent dynamical explanation for regional patterns of increased or decreased aridity shown by vegetation, lake status and aeolian data from the Americas.

Analysis of Synoptic Weather Types and Its Influence on Precipitation in the Marmara Region (NW Turkey)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baltaci, H.; Kindap, T.; Unal, A.; Karaca, M.

2012-04-01

In this study, we investigated the relationship between synoptic weather types and rainfall patterns in the Marmara region, northwestern part of Turkey. For this purpose, the automated Lamb weather type classification method was applied to the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis daily mean sea level pressure data for the period between 2001 and 2010. Ten synoptic weather types were found that represent the 90% of the synoptic patterns that affect the Marmara region. Based on the annual frequency analysis, mainly six synoptic weather types, 24% (NorthEast), 21% (North), 11% (South), 9% (SouthWest), 7% (Anticyclonic), 5% (Cyclonic), were found dominant in the region. Multiple comparison tests suggest that (i.e., Bonferroni test) northerly patterns (i.e., North and NorthEast) have statistically significantly higher percentages as compared to the southerly (i.e., South and SouthWest) and the rest of the patterns (i.e., Anticylonic and Cylonic). During winter months, N- and NE-patterns observed less frequently than the annual frequencies of them, 18% and 13% of the period, respectively. On the other hand, due to the formation of the low pressure center located over the central Mediterranean Sea, S- and SW-patterns were observed more frequently than their annual mean frequencies, 16% and 17%, respectively. During summer months, N- and NE-patterns become dominant in the region, and they constitute about three quarters of the period, 25% and 44%, respectively. The low pressure center located over central Anatolia and Black Sea brings moist and cool air to the region, preventing excessive heating during the summer season. Cyclonic patterns observed less frequent during the winter and fall months, about 3%. They become more frequent during the summer season, 9% as a result of the shifting of the subtropical jet stream to the south, and the seasonal movement of the Basra low pressure toward the inner and northern parts of the Anatolian peninsula. On the other hand, Anticyclonic patterns are more common in the fall season 11% due to the expansion of spatial extent of the anticyclone center located over the Caspian Sea. Daily precipitation records for the period of between 2001 and 2010 belong to 14 meteorological stations in the region were investigated to understand the influence of synoptic weather types on precipitation. Based on daily precipitation records, about one-third of the NE-patterns result in precipitation which is slightly larger than patterns from other directions. The corresponding values for SW-, N- and S-patterns are 29%, 25% and 25%, respectively. Northerly patterns (N and NE) causes more frequent precipitation on the northern and eastern parts of the region. On the other hand, southerly patterns (S and SW) are more influential and cause more frequent precipitation on the south and northwestern parts of the region. Therefore, frequency of synoptic weather types and daily precipitation records suggest that precipitation regimes are of a different nature in northern and southern parts of the Marmara region. Keywords Synoptic weather types; Marmara Region; Lamb classification; Rainfall patterns

Winter precipitation change in South China in recent decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Jingning

2013-04-01

Precipitation change is one of important climate researches in China, but winter precipitation variation in South China has not been studied so frequently. In China, it is rainy when hot; so summer precipitation is usually one focus in research, esp. in South China. However, winter precipitation and its change influence people profoundly in South China, also. The most recent example is what happened over South China in winter 2008. In this winter, millions of people suffered from the unusual cold and snowy winter. It led to huge loss in economy and traffic as well. Roads closed and railway stations were jammed and crowded with people; many planes were grounded for heavy snow and bad weather. Transmission lines faulted in the mountains. The ommunication signals were affected. Everyday food supply including vegetables and meats had to be delayed or interrupted. In some city even water supply was interrupted. And garbage in the city was piled up. Just in this winter the snow depth and coverage area in many places in South China broke or equaled the historical records. In fact, it isn't the only one unusual winter precipitation event in South China. Since 1950s, several freezing and snowy winters struck the South in China. In this research, winter precipitation change in recent years in South China has been discussed based on the precipitation observations. The associated large scale atmospheric circulation change is also analyzed. It is found that snowy winter in South China hardly comes in most periods of 2000s, but in recent decades this heavy snow in winter has appeared several times as observations shows. This phenomenon could be related to the large scale atmospheric circulation change.

Impacts of Synoptic Weather Patterns on Snow Albedo at Sites in New England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adolph, A. C.; Albert, M. R.; Lazarcik, J.; Dibb, J. E.; Amante, J.; Price, A. N.

2015-12-01

Winter snow in the northeastern United States has changed over the last several decades, resulting in shallower snow packs, fewer days of snow cover and increasing precipitation falling as rain in the winter. In addition to these changes which cause reductions in surface albedo, increasing winter temperatures also lead to more rapid snow grain growth, resulting in decreased snow reflectivity. We present in-situ measurements and analyses to test the sensitivity of seasonal snow albedo to varying weather conditions at sites in New England. In particular, we investigate the impact of temperature on snow albedo through melt and grain growth, the impact of precipitation event frequency on albedo through snow "freshening," and the impact of storm path on snow structure and snow albedo. Over three winter seasons between 2013 and 2015, in-situ snow characterization measurements were made at three non-forested sites across New Hampshire. These near-daily measurements include spectrally resolved albedo, snow optical grain size determined through contact spectroscopy, snow depth, snow density and local meteorological parameters. Combining this information with storm tracks derived from HYSPLIT modeling, we quantify the current sensitivity of northeastern US snow albedo to temperature as well as precipitation type, frequency and path. Our analysis shows that southerly winter storms result in snow with a significantly lower albedo than storms which come from across the continental US or the Atlantic Ocean. Interannual variability in temperature and statewide spatial variability in snowfall rates at our sites show the relative importance of snowfall amount and temperatures in albedo evolution over the course of the winter.

Impact of large-scale circulation changes in the North Atlantic sector on the current and future Mediterranean winter hydroclimate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barcikowska, Monika J.; Kapnick, Sarah B.; Feser, Frauke

2018-03-01

The Mediterranean region, located in the transition zone between the dry subtropical and wet European mid-latitude climate, is very sensitive to changes in the global mean climate state. Projecting future changes of the Mediterranean hydroclimate under global warming therefore requires dynamic climate models to reproduce the main mechanisms controlling regional hydroclimate with sufficiently high resolution to realistically simulate climate extremes. To assess future winter precipitation changes in the Mediterranean region we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory high-resolution general circulation model for control simulations with pre-industrial greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations which are compared to future scenario simulations. Here we show that the coupled model is able to reliably simulate the large-scale winter circulation, including the North Atlantic Oscillation and Eastern Atlantic patterns of variability, and its associated impacts on the mean Mediterranean hydroclimate. The model also realistically reproduces the regional features of daily heavy rainfall, which are absent in lower-resolution simulations. A five-member future projection ensemble, which assumes comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions (RCP8.5) until 2100, indicates a strong winter decline in Mediterranean precipitation for the coming decades. Consistent with dynamical and thermodynamical consequences of a warming atmosphere, derived changes feature a distinct bipolar behavior, i.e. wetting in the north—and drying in the south. Changes are most pronounced over the northwest African coast, where the projected winter precipitation decline reaches 40% of present values. Despite a decrease in mean precipitation, heavy rainfall indices show drastic increases across most of the Mediterranean, except the North African coast, which is under the strong influence of the cold Canary Current.

Simulation of Vegetation Recovery from Military Disturbances on Fort Bliss

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-11-01

Identification of site-level data Identifying site-level data was not easy at either site, although we had more support for finding data on the...were interested in the effect of drought on vegetation, we compared precipitation during the winter (October–May) and the growing season (June...2002a). The analysis of the precipitation pattern for the win- ter (October–May) and the growing season (June–September) revealed the fol- lowing

Trace gas and vegetation feedback responses of Alaskan tussock tundra to long-term snow depth manipulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebbs, L. M.; Taneva, L.; Sullivan, P.; Welker, J. M.

2009-12-01

Changes in the precipitation and temperature regimes in Northern Alaska are manifesting themselves through shifts in sea ice, vegetation traits, animal migration timing and hydrologic dynamics. Changes in precipitation and soil temperature result in changes in plant mineral nutrition, soil nutrient availability, trace gas exchanges and differential nutrient acquisition strategies by arctic plants. In this study, we report on the extent to which long-term increases in snow depth, along with reductions in snow depth alter the magnitudes and pattern of CO2 exchange, soil properties and vegetation traits. A doubling of snow depth (from ~0.5 to ~1.0m) results in a delay of the growing season by ~ 2 weeks, however, by peak season, the rates of CO2 exchange are 50% higher in areas which had experienced deeper snow depth levels. To the contrary, long-term reductions in snow depth results in accelerated rates of plant phenology, however CO2 exchange rates at peak season are 30% less than those areas under ambient snow cover in the preceding winter. Reduced snow depth areas had the coldest winter soil temperatures while the deeper areas had the warmest winter soil temperatures, which may partially explain the summer CO2 fluxes indirectly via different rates of winter N mineralization and differences in leaf N properties. Our results indicate that shifting fall, winter and spring when snow is the primary form of precipitation, may have profound effects on tussock tundra systems.

ENSO and hydrologic extremes in the western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cayan, D.R.; Redmond, K.T.; Riddle, L.G.

1999-01-01

Frequency distributions of daily precipitation in winter and daily stream flow from late winter to early summer, at several hundred sites in the western United States, exhibit strong and systematic responses to the two phases of ENSO. Most of the stream flows considered are driven by snowmelt. The Southern Oscillation index (SOI) is used as the ENSO phase indicator. Both modest (median) and larger (90th percentile) events were considered. In years with negative SOI values (El Nino), days with high daily precipitation and stream flow are more frequent than average over the Southwest and less frequent over the Northwest. During years with positive SOI values (La Nina), a nearly opposite pattern is seen. A more pronounced increase is seen in the number of days exceeding climatological 90th percentile values than in the number exceeding climatological 50th percentile values, for both precipitation and stream flow. Stream flow responses to ENSO extremes are accentuated over precipitation responses. Evidence suggests that the mechanism for this amplification involves ENSO-phase differences in the persistence and duration of wet episodes, affecting the efficiency of the process by which precipitation is converted to runoff. The SOI leads the precipitation events by several months, and hydrologic lags (mostly through snowmelt) dealy the stream flow response by several more months. The combined 6-12 month predictive aspect of this relationship should be of significant benefit in responding to flood (or drought) risk and in improving overall water management in the western states.Frequency distributions of daily precipitation in winter and daily stream flow from late winter to early summer, at several hundred sites in the western United States, exhibit strong and systematic responses to the two phases of ENSO. Most of the stream flows considered are driven by snowmelt. The Southern Oscillation index (SOI) is used as the ENSO phase indicator. Both modest (median) and larger (90th percentile) events were considered. In years with negative SOI values (El Nino), days with high daily precipitation and stream flow are more frequent than average over the Southwest and less frequent over the Northwest. During years with positive SOI values (La Nina), a nearly opposite pattern is seen. A more pronounced increase is seen in the number of days exceeding climatological 90th percentile values than in the number exceeding climatological 50th percentile values, for both precipitation and stream flow. Stream flow responses to ENSO extremes are accentuated over precipitation responses. Evidence suggests that the mechanism for this amplification involves ENSO-phase differences in the persistence and duration of wet episodes, affecting the efficiency of the process by which precipitation is converted to runoff. The SOI leads the precipitation events by several months, and hydrologic lags (mostly through snowmelt) delay the stream flow response by several more months. The combined 6-12-month predictive aspect of this relationship should be of significant benefit in responding to flood (or drought) risk and in improving overall water management in the western states.

Skillful seasonal predictions of winter precipitation over southern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Bo; Scaife, Adam A.; Dunstone, Nick; Smith, Doug; Ren, Hong-Li; Liu, Ying; Eade, Rosie

2017-07-01

Southern China experiences large year-to-year variability in the amount of winter precipitation, which can result in severe social and economic impacts. In this study, we demonstrate prediction skill of southern China winter precipitation by three operational seasonal prediction models: the operational Global seasonal forecasting system version 5 (GloSea5), the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) and the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC-CSM1.1m). The correlation scores reach 0.76 and 0.67 in GloSea5 and CFSv2, respectively; and the amplitude of the ensemble mean forecast signal is comparable to the observed variations. The skilful predictions in GloSea5 and CFSv2 mainly benefit from the successful representation of the observed ENSO teleconnection. El Niño weakens the Walker circulation and leads to the strengthening of the subtropical high over the northwestern Pacific. The anti-cyclone then induces anomalous northward flow over the South China Sea and brings water vapor to southern China, resulting in more precipitation. This teleconnection pattern is too weak in BCC-CSM1.1m, which explains its low skill (0.13). Whereas the most skilful forecast system is also able to simulate the influence of the Indian Ocean on southern China precipitation via changes in southwesterly winds over the Bay of Bengal. Finally, we examine the real-time forecast for 2015/16 winter when a strong El Niño event led to the highest rainfall over southern China in recent decades. We find that the GloSea5 system gave good advice as it produced the third wettest southern China in the hindcast, but underestimated the observed amplitude. This is likely due to the underestimation of the Siberian High strength in 2015/2016 winter, which has driven strong convergence over southern China. We conclude that some current seasonal forecast systems can give useful warning of impending extremes. However, there is still need for further model improvement to fully represent the complex dynamics of the region.

Winter precipitation forecast in the European and Mediterranean regions using cluster analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molnos, S.

2017-12-01

The European and Mediterranean climates are sensitive to large-scale circulation of the atmosphere andocean making it difficult to forecast precipitation or temperature on seasonal time-scales. In addition, theMediterranean region has been identified as a hotspot for climate change and already today a drying in theMediterranean region is observed.Thus, it is critically important to predict seasonal droughts as early as possible such that water managersand stakeholders can mitigate impacts.We developed a novel cluster-based forecast method to empirically predict winter's precipitationanomalies in European and Mediterranean regions using precursors in autumn. This approach does notonly utilizes the amplitude but also the pattern of the precursors in generating the forecast.Using a toy model we show that it achieves a better forecast skill than more traditional regression models. Furthermore, we compare our algorithm with dynamic forecast models demonstrating that our prediction method performs better in terms of time and pattern correlation in the Mediterranean and European regions.

Tropical Indian Ocean warming contributions to China winter climate trends since 1960

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qigang; Yao, Yonghong; Liu, Shizuo; Cao, DanDan; Cheng, Luyao; Hu, Haibo; Sun, Leng; Yao, Ying; Yang, Zhiqi; Gao, Xuxu; Schroeder, Steven R.

2018-01-01

This study investigates observed and modeled contributions of global sea surface temperature (SST) to China winter climate trends in 1960-2014, including increased precipitation, warming through about 1997, and cooling since then. Observations and Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations with prescribed historical SST and sea ice show that tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) warming and increasing rainfall causes diabatic heating that generates a tropospheric wave train with anticyclonic 500-hPa height anomaly centers in the TIO or equatorial western Pacific (TIWP) and northeastern Eurasia (EA) and a cyclonic anomaly over China, referred to as the TIWP-EA wave train. The cyclonic anomaly causes Indochina moisture convergence and southwesterly moist flow that enhances South China precipitation, while the northern anticyclone enhances cold surges, sometimes causing severe ice storms. AMIP simulations show a 1960-1997 China cooling trend by simulating increasing instead of decreasing Arctic 500-hPa heights that move the northern anticyclone into Siberia, but enlarge the cyclonic anomaly so it still simulates realistic China precipitation trend patterns. A separate idealized TIO SST warming simulation simulates the TIWP-EA feature more realistically with correct precipitation patterns and supports the TIWP-EA teleconnection as the primary mechanism for long-term increasing precipitation in South China since 1960. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) experiments simulate a reduced TIO SST warming trend and weak precipitation trends, so the TIWP-EA feature is absent and strong drying is simulated in South China for 1960-1997. These simulations highlight the need for accurately modeled SST to correctly attribute regional climate trends.

Press-pulse interactions: effects of warming, N deposition, altered winter precipitation, and fire on desert grassland community structure and dynamics.

PubMed

Collins, Scott L; Ladwig, Laura M; Petrie, Matthew D; Jones, Sydney K; Mulhouse, John M; Thibault, James R; Pockman, William T

2017-03-01

Global environmental change is altering temperature, precipitation patterns, resource availability, and disturbance regimes. Theory predicts that ecological presses will interact with pulse events to alter ecosystem structure and function. In 2006, we established a long-term, multifactor global change experiment to determine the interactive effects of nighttime warming, increased atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition, and increased winter precipitation on plant community structure and aboveground net primary production (ANPP) in a northern Chihuahuan Desert grassland. In 2009, a lightning-caused wildfire burned through the experiment. Here, we report on the interactive effects of these global change drivers on pre- and postfire grassland community structure and ANPP. Our nighttime warming treatment increased winter nighttime air temperatures by an average of 1.1 °C and summer nighttime air temperature by 1.5 °C. Soil N availability was 2.5 times higher in fertilized compared with control plots. Average soil volumetric water content (VWC) in winter was slightly but significantly higher (13.0% vs. 11.0%) in plots receiving added winter rain relative to controls, and VWC was slightly higher in warmed (14.5%) compared with control (13.5%) plots during the growing season even though surface soil temperatures were significantly higher in warmed plots. Despite these significant treatment effects, ANPP and plant community structure were highly resistant to these global change drivers prior to the fire. Burning reduced the cover of the dominant grasses by more than 75%. Following the fire, forb species richness and biomass increased significantly, particularly in warmed, fertilized plots that received additional winter precipitation. Thus, although unburned grassland showed little initial response to multiple ecological presses, our results demonstrate how a single pulse disturbance can interact with chronic alterations in resource availability to increase ecosystem sensitivity to multiple drivers of global environmental change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Sensitivity of the regional climate in the Middle East and North Africa to volcanic perturbations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar; Stenchikov, Georgiy; Osipov, Sergey; Wyman, Bruce; Zhao, Ming

2017-08-01

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regional climate appears to be extremely sensitive to volcanic eruptions. Winter cooling after the 1991 Pinatubo eruption far exceeded the mean hemispheric temperature anomaly, even causing snowfall in Israel. To better understand MENA climate variability, the climate responses to the El Chichón and Pinatubo volcanic eruptions are analyzed using observations, NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, and output from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's High-Resolution Atmospheric Model. A multiple regression analysis both for the observations and the model output is performed on seasonal summer and winter composites to separate out the contributions from climate trends, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Indian summer monsoon, and volcanic aerosols. Strong regional temperature and precipitation responses over the MENA region are found in both winter and summer. The model and the observations both show that a positive NAO amplifies the MENA volcanic winter cooling. In boreal summer, the patterns of changing temperature and precipitation suggest a weakening and southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, caused by volcanic surface cooling and weakening of the Indian and West African monsoons. The model captures the main features of the climate response; however, it underestimates the total cooling, especially in winter, and exhibits a different spatial pattern of the NAO climate response in MENA compared to the observations. The conducted analysis sheds light on the internal mechanisms of MENA climate variability and helps to selectively diagnose the model deficiencies.

Precipitation in Madeira island and atmospheric rivers in the winter seasons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Couto, Flavio T.; Salgado, Rui; João Costa, Maria; Prior, Victor

2016-04-01

This study aims to analyse the distribution of the daily accumulated precipitation in the Madeira's highlands over a 10-year period, as well as the main characteristics associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs) affecting the island during 10 winter seasons, and their impact in the rainfall amounts recorded near the mountain crest in the south-eastern part of the island. The period between September 2002 and November 2012 is considered for the analysis. The ARs have been identified from the total precipitable water vapour field extracted from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). The AIRS observations were downloaded for a domain covering large part of the North Atlantic Ocean. The precipitable water vapour field from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis was also used aiming to support the AIRS data when there was no satellite information over the island. The daily accumulated precipitation at surface showed generally drier summers, while the highest accumulated precipitation are recorded mainly during the winter, although some significant events may occur also in autumn and spring seasons. The patterns of the precipitable water vapour field when ARs reach the island were investigated, and even if great part of the atmospheric rivers reaches the island in a dissipation stage, some rivers are heavy enough to reach the Madeira Island. In this situation, the water vapour transport could be observed in two main configurations and transporting significant water vapour amounts toward the Madeira from the tropical region. This study lead to conclude that the atmospheric rivers, when associated to high values of precipitable water vapour over the island can provide favourable conditions to the development of precipitation, sometimes associated with high amounts. However, it was also found that many cases of high to extreme accumulated precipitation at the surface were not associated to this kind of moisture transport.

Relative Contributions of Mean-State Shifts and ENSO-Driven Variability to Precipitation Changes in a Warming Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bonfils, Celine J. W.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Phillips, Thomas J.; Marvel, Kate; Leung, L. Ruby; Doutriaux, Charles; Capotondi, Antonietta

2015-01-01

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of regional hydroclimate variability through far-reaching teleconnections. This study uses simulations performed with coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) to investigate how regional precipitation in the twenty-first century may be affected by changes in both ENSO-driven precipitation variability and slowly evolving mean rainfall. First, a dominant, time-invariant pattern of canonical ENSO variability (cENSO) is identified in observed SST data. Next, the fidelity with which 33 state-of-the-art CGCMs represent the spatial structure and temporal variability of this pattern (as well as its associated precipitation responses) is evaluated in simulations of twentieth-century climate change. Possible changes in both the temporal variability of this pattern and its associated precipitation teleconnections are investigated in twenty-first-century climate projections. Models with better representation of the observed structure of the cENSO pattern produce winter rainfall teleconnection patterns that are in better accord with twentieth-century observations and more stationary during the twenty-first century. Finally, the model-predicted twenty-first-century rainfall response to cENSO is decomposed into the sum of three terms: 1) the twenty-first-century change in the mean state of precipitation, 2) the historical precipitation response to the cENSO pattern, and 3) a future enhancement in the rainfall response to cENSO, which amplifies rainfall extremes. By examining the three terms jointly, this conceptual framework allows the identification of regions likely to experience future rainfall anomalies that are without precedent in the current climate.

Relative Contributions of Mean-State Shifts and ENSO-Driven Variability to Precipitation Changes in a Warming Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bonfils, Celine J. W.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Phillips, Thomas J.; Marvel, Kate; Leung, L. Ruby; Doutriaux, Charles; Capotondi, Antonietta

2015-01-01

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of regional hydroclimate variability through far-reaching teleconnections. This study uses simulations performed with Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) to investigate how regional precipitation in the 21st century may be affected by changes in both ENSO-driven precipitation variability and slowly-evolving mean rainfall. First, a dominant, time-invariant pattern of canonical ENSO variability (cENSO) is identified in observed SST data. Next, the fidelity with which 33 state-of-the-art CGCMs represent the spatial structure and temporal variability of this pattern (as well as its associated precipitation responses) is evaluated in simulations of 20th century climate change. Possible changes in both the temporal variability of this pattern and its associated precipitation teleconnections are investigated in 21st century climate projections. Models with better representation of the observed structure of the cENSO pattern produce winter rainfall teleconnection patterns that are in better accord with 20th century observations and more stationary during the 21st century. Finally, the model-predicted 21st century rainfall response to cENSO is decomposed into the sum of three terms: 1) the 21st century change in the mean state of precipitation; 2) the historical precipitation response to the cENSO pattern; and 3) a future enhancement in the rainfall response to cENSO, which amplifies rainfall extremes. By examining the three terms jointly, this conceptual framework allows the identification of regions likely to experience future rainfall anomalies that are without precedent in the current climate.

A Winter Precipitation Reconstruction (CE 1810-2012) in the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau and Its Relationship to Salween River Streamflow Variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Feng; Yuan, Yujiang; Fan, Zexin; Yu, Shulong

2018-01-01

We established a tree-ring width series from one Yunnan Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga forrestii) stand near the Mingyong glacier terminus of Meili Snow Mountain, southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Correlation analyses indicated that radial growth of Yunnan Douglas firs is largely controlled by variations in winter (November-March) precipitation. The precipitation reconstruction model accounts for 37% of the actual precipitation variance during the common period 1954-2012. Spatial correlations with the gridded precipitation data reveal that the winter precipitation reconstruction represents regional precipitation changes over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. By comparing our results with other regional tree-ring records, a distinctive amount of common dry and humid periods were found. Our winter precipitation reconstruction shows profound similarities with Salween river streamflow signals as well as regional glacial activity. Cross-wavelet analysis reveals solar and ENSO influences on precipitation and streamflow variations in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau.

Potential Influence of Arctic Sea Ice to the Inter-annual Variations of East Asian Spring Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xinxin; Wu, Zhiwei; Li, Yanjie

2016-04-01

Arctic sea ice (ASI) and its potential climatic impacts have received increasing attention during the past decades, yet the relevant mechanisms are far from being understood, particularly on how anomalous ASI affects climate in midlatitudes. The spring precipitation takes up as much as 30% of the annual total and has significant influences to agriculture in East Asia. Here, observed evidence and numerical experiment results manifest that the ASI variability in the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea in preceding winter is intimately connected with interannual variations of the East Asian spring precipitation (EAP). The former can explain about 14% of the total variances of the latter. The ASI anomalies persist from winter through the ensuing spring and excite downstream tele-connections of a distinct Rossby wave train prevailing over the Eurasian continent. For the reduced ASI, such a wave train pattern is usually associated with an anomalous low pressure center over Mongolian Plateau, which accelerates the East Asian subtropical westerly jet. The intensified subtropical westerly jet, concurrent with lower-level convergence and upper-level divergence, enhances the local convection and consequently favors rich spring precipitation over East Asia. For the excessive ASI, the situation tends to be opposite. Given that seasonal prediction of the EAP remains a challenging issue, the winter ASI variability may provide another potential predictability source besides El Niño-Southern Oscillation.

Source-Receptor Relationship Analysis of the Atmospheric Deposition of PAHs Subject to Long-Range Transport in Northeast Asia.

PubMed

Inomata, Yayoi; Kajino, Mizuo; Sato, Keiichi; Kurokawa, Junichi; Tang, Ning; Ohara, Toshimasa; Hayakawa, Kazuichi; Ueda, Hiromasa

2017-07-18

The source-receptor relationship analysis of PAH deposition in Northeast Asia was investigated using an Eulerian regional-scale aerosol chemical transport model. Dry deposition (DD) of PAH was controlled by wind flow patterns, whereas wet deposition (WD) depended on precipitation in addition to wind flow patterns. The contribution of WD was approximately 50-90% of the total deposition, except during winter in Northern China (NCHN) and Eastern Russia (ERUS) because of the low amount of precipitation. The amount of PAH deposition showed clear seasonal variation and was high in winter and low in summer in downwind (South Korea, Japan) and oceanic-receptor regions. In the downwind region, the contributions from NCHN (WD 28-52%; DD 54-55%) and Central China (CCHN) (WD 43-65%; DD 33-38%) were large in winter, whereas self-contributions (WD 20-51%; DD 79-81%) were relatively high in summer. In the oceanic-receptor region, the deposition amount decreased with distance from the Asian continent. The amount of DD was strongly influenced by emissions from neighboring domains. The contributions of WD from NCHN (16-20%) and CCHN (28-35%) were large. The large contributions from China in summer to the downwind region were linked to vertical transport of PAHs over the Asian continent associated with convection.

Spatio-temporal distribution and environmental drivers of Barley yellow dwarf virus and vector abundance in Kansas.

PubMed

Enders, Laramy; Hefley, Trevor; Girvin, John; Whitworth, Robert; Smith, Charles

2018-05-11

Several aphid species transmit barley yellow dwarf, a globally destructive disease caused by viruses that infect cereal grain crops. Data from >400 samples collected across Kansas wheat fields in 2014 and 2015 were used to develop spatio-temporal models predicting the extent to which landcover, temperature and precipitation affect spring aphid vector abundance and presence of individuals carrying Barley yellow dwarf virus (BYDV). The distribution of Rhopalosiphum padi abundance was not correlated with climate or landcover, but Sitobion avenae abundance was positively correlated to fall temperature and negatively correlated to spring temperature and precipitation. The abundance of Schizaphis graminum was negatively correlated with fall precipitation and winter temperature. The incidence of viruliferous (+BYDV) R. padi was positively correlated with fall precipitation but negatively correlated with winter precipitation. In contrast, the probability of +BYDV S. avenae was unaffected by precipitation but was positively correlated with average fall temperatures and distance to nearest forest or shrubland. R. padi and S. avenae were more prevalent at Eastern sample sites where ground cover is more grassland than cropland, suggesting that grassland may provide over-summering sites for vectors and pose a risk as potential BYDV reservoirs. Nevertheless, land cover patterns were not strongly associated with differences in abundance or probability that viruliferous aphids were present.

Chemical composition of bulk precipitation in the North-Central and Northeastern United States, December 1980 through February 1981

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peters, Norman E.; Bonelli, Joseph E.

1982-01-01

Samples of bulk precipitation were collected at 179 sites in the North-Central and Northeastern United States for 3 months during winter 1980-81 to provide data on the distribution of chemical constituents. Concentrations and average daily loads of 29 dissolved constituents were determined. Sodium and chloride deposition was relatively high in coastal areas and adjacent to some urban centers. Regional patterns of to daily loads of hydrogen ion, nitrate, lead, and iron correlate well with one another and form a concentric pattern around the center of high deposition in eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania, suggesting an urban-industrial source. Samples from this area had low pH (5.7). The latter samples had high concentrations of calcium and total inorganic carbon, suggesting pH control by soil-derived carbonate minerals. Deposition patterns of ammonium, nitrate, and sulfate display regional highs in Illinois, Indiana, and southwestern Michigan, suggesting agricultural sources such as fertilizer. Median loads of zinc, iron, and lead were lower than reported in previous studies for North America. The apparent decrease in lead since 1950 throughout the area is attributed to reduced consumption of leaded fuels and lower deposition in winter.

Hydroclimatic variability in the Lake Mondsee region and its relationships with large-scale climate anomaly patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rimbu, Norel; Ionita, Monica; Swierczynski, Tina; Brauer, Achim; Kämpf, Lucas; Czymzik, Markus

2017-04-01

Flood triggered detrital layers in varved sediments of Lake Mondsee, located at the northern fringe of the European Alps (47°48'N,13°23'E), provide an important archive of regional hydroclimatic variability during the mid- to late Holocene. To improve the interpretation of the flood layer record in terms of large-scale climate variability, we investigate the relationships between observational hydrological records from the region, like the Mondsee lake level, the runoff of the lake's main inflow Griesler Ache, with observed precipitation and global climate patterns. The lake level shows a strong positive linear trend during the observational period in all seasons. Additionally, lake level presents important interannual to multidecadal variations. These variations are associated with distinct seasonal atmospheric circulation patterns. A pronounced anomalous anticyclonic center over the Iberian Peninsula is associated with high lake levels values during winter. This center moves southwestward during spring, summer and autumn. In the same time, a cyclonic anomaly center is recorded over central and western Europe. This anomalous circulation extends southwestward from winter to autumn. Similar atmospheric circulation patterns are associated with river runoff and precipitation variability from the region. High lake levels are associated with positive local precipitation anomalies in all seasons as well as with negative local temperature anomalies during spring, summer and autumn. A correlation analysis reveals that lake level, runoff and precipitation variability is related to large-scale sea surface temperature anomaly patterns in all seasons suggesting a possible impact of large-scale climatic modes, like the North Atlantic Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on hydroclimatic variability in the Lake Mondsee region. The results presented in this study can be used for a more robust interpretation of the long flood layer record from Lake Mondsee sediments in terms of regional and large-scale climate variability during the past.

Productivity responses of desert vegetation to precipitation patterns across a rainfall gradient.

PubMed

Li, Fang; Zhao, Wenzhi; Liu, Hu

2015-03-01

The influences of previous-year precipitation and episodic rainfall events on dryland plants and communities are poorly quantified in the temperate desert region of Northwest China. To evaluate the thresholds and lags in the response of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) to variability in rainfall pulses and seasonal precipitation along the precipitation-productivity gradient in three desert ecosystems with different precipitation regimes, we collected precipitation data from 2000 to 2012 in Shandan (SD), Linze (LZ) and Jiuquan (JQ) in northwestern China. Further, we extracted the corresponding MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, a proxy for ANPP) datasets at 250 m spatial resolution. We then evaluated different desert ecosystems responses using statistical analysis, and a threshold-delay model (TDM). TDM is an integrative framework for analysis of plant growth, precipitation thresholds, and plant functional type strategies that capture the nonlinear nature of plant responses to rainfall pulses. Our results showed that: (1) the growing season NDVIINT (INT stands for time-integrated) was largely correlated with the warm season (spring/summer) at our mildly-arid desert ecosystem (SD). The arid ecosystem (LZ) exhibited a different response, and the growing season NDVIINT depended highly on the previous year's fall/winter precipitation and ANPP. At the extremely arid site (JQ), the variability of growing season NDVIINT was equally correlated with the cool- and warm-season precipitation; (2) some parameters of threshold-delay differed among the three sites: while the response of NDVI to rainfall pulses began at about 5 mm for all the sites, the maximum thresholds in SD, LZ, and JQ were about 55, 35 and 30 mm respectively, increasing with an increase in mean annual precipitation. By and large, more previous year's fall/winter precipitation, and large rainfall events, significantly enhanced the growth of desert vegetation, and desert ecosystems should be much more adaptive under likely future scenarios of increasing fall/winter precipitation and large rainfall events. These results highlight the inherent complexity in predicting how desert ecosystems will respond to future fluctuations in precipitation.

Impacts of Pacific SSTs on California Winter Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myoung, B.; Kafatos, M.

2017-12-01

Consecutive below-normal precipitation years and resulted multi-year droughts are critical issues as the recent 2012-2015 drought of California caused tremendous socio-economic damages. However, studies on the causes of the multi-year droughts lack. In this study, focusing on the three multi-year droughts (1999-2002, 2007-2009, and 2012-2015) in California during the last two decades, we investigated the atmospheric and oceanic characteristics of the three drought events for winter (December-February, DJF) in order to understand large-scale circulations that are responsible for initiation, maintenance, and termination of the droughts. It was found that abnormally developed upper-tropospheric ridges over the North Pacific are primarily responsible for precipitation deficits and then droughts. These ridges developed when negative sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTs) including La Niña events are pervasive in the tropical Pacific. After 3 or 4 years, the droughts ended under the opposite conditions; upper-tropospheric troughs in the North Pacific with El Niño events in the tropics. Results of Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis for the 41-year (1974/75-2014/15) 500 hPa geopotential height in DJF revealed that, during the drought periods, the positive phases of the first and second EOF mode (EOF1+ and EOF2+, respectively) were active one by one, positioning upper-tropospheric ridges over the North Pacific. While EOF1+ is associated with cold tropical central Pacific and negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), EOF2+ is associated with the tropical east-west SST dipole pattern (i.e., warm western tropical Pacific and cool eastern tropical Pacific near the southern Peru). Based on these results, we developed a regression model for winter precipitation. While dominant SST factors differ by decades, for the recent two decades (1994/1995-2014/2015), 56% variability of DJF precipitation is explained by the tropical east-west SST dipole pattern and PDO (NINO3.4 signal removed) together. These results suggest that SST variability not only in the western/eastern tropical Pacific but also in the North Pacific independently contribute to precipitation variability and long-term droughts in California.

Relationship between Precipitation Components and Teleconnection Patterns in the Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

María Ruiz, Ana; Maqueda, Gregorio

2016-04-01

The study of precipitation components is of increasing interest due to the differences that involve each of the correspondent consequences. On one hand, the stratiform component, weak and light, causes regular and long-lasting precipitation. On the other hand, the convective one, stronger and intense, is associated with more local precipitation, produced in short periods of time. In this work, the separated components of precipitation, obtained through the distribution of cumulated rain as its intensity has been analyzed for five sectors with different climate characteristic in Spain. The sectors may initially be of Atlantic or Mediterranean influence, besides having others geographical and orographic dependence. The aim of this study is to determine the influence of different teleconnection patterns over the stratiform and convective precipitation for each sector. The dataset have been a 17 years time series (1998-2014) of hourly rain data from the AEMET network (Spanish Meteorological Agency) consistent of 63 rain gauge stations that cover all the study area. Results show, in autumn-winter season, a clear influence of NAO in the stratiform precipitation for every sector except the closest to the Mediterranean sea. High correlation between EA, SCAND and EA/WR patterns with the stratiform component also it is observed. In the case of convective precipitation only the WeMO index keeps some influence in the near Mediterranean sector.

Multiscale analysis of surface soil moisture dynamics in a mesoscale catchment utilizing an integrated ecohydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korres, W.; Reichenau, T. G.; Schneider, K.

2012-12-01

Soil moisture is one of the fundamental variables in hydrology, meteorology and agriculture, influencing the partitioning of solar energy into latent and sensible heat flux as well as the partitioning of precipitation into runoff and percolation. Numerous studies have shown that in addition to natural factors (rainfall, soil, topography etc.) agricultural management is one of the key drivers for spatio-temporal patterns of soil moisture in agricultural landscapes. Interactions between plant growth, soil hydrology and soil nitrogen transformation processes are modeled by using a dynamically coupled modeling approach. The process-based ecohydrological model components of the integrated decision support system DANUBIA are used to identify the important processes and feedbacks determining soil moisture patterns in agroecosystems. Integrative validation of plant growth and surface soil moisture dynamics serves as a basis for a spatially distributed modeling analysis of surface soil moisture patterns in the northern part of the Rur catchment (1100 sq km), Western Germany. An extensive three year dataset (2007-2009) of surface soil moisture-, plant- (LAI, organ specific biomass and N) and soil- (texture, N, C) measurements was collected. Plant measurements were carried out biweekly for winter wheat, maize, and sugar beet during the growing season. Soil moisture was measured with three FDR soil moisture stations. Meteorological data was measured with an eddy flux station. The results of the model validation showed a very good agreement between the modeled plant parameters (biomass, green LAI) and the measured parameters with values between 0.84 and 0.98 (Willmotts index of agreement). The modeled surface soil moisture (0 - 20 cm) showed also a very favorable agreement with the measurements for winter wheat and sugar beet with an RMSE between 1.68 and 3.45 Vol.-%. For maize, the RMSE was less favorable particularly in the 1.5 months prior to harvest. The modeled soil moisture remained in contrast to the measurements very responsive to precipitation with high soil moisture after precipitation events. This behavior indicates that the soil properties might have changed due to the formation of a surface crust or seal towards the end of the growing season. Spatial soil moisture patterns were investigated using a grid resolution of 150 meter. Spatial autocorrelation was computed on a daily basis using patterns of soil texture as well as transpiration and precipitation indices as co-variables. Spatial patterns of surface soil moisture are mostly determined by the structure of the soil properties (soil type) during winter, early growing season and after harvest of all crops. Later in the growing season, after establishment of a closed canopy the dependence of the soil moisture patterns on soil texture patterns becomes smaller and diminishes quickly after precipitation events, due to differences of the transpiration rate of the different crops. When changing the spatial scale of the analysis, the highest autocorrelation values can be found on a grid cell size between 450 and 1200 meters. Thus, small scale variability of transpiration induced by the land use pattern almost averages out, leaving the larger scale structure of soil properties to explain the soil moisture patterns.

Seasonal movement, residency, and migratory patterns of Wilson's Snipe (Gallinago delicata)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cline, Brittany B.; Haig, Susan M.

2011-01-01

Cross-seasonal studies of avian movement establish links between geographically distinct wintering, breeding, and migratory stopover locations, or assess site fidelity and movement between distinct phases of the annual cycle. Far fewer studies have investigated individual movement patterns within and among seasons over an annual cycle. Within western Oregon's Willamette Valley throughout 2007, we quantified intra- and interseasonal movement patterns, fidelity (regional and local), and migratory patterns of 37 radiomarked Wilson's Snipe (Gallinago delicata) to elucidate residency in a region of breeding- and wintering-range overlap. Telemetry revealed complex regional population structure, including winter residents (74%), winter transients (14%), summer residents (9%), and one year-round resident breeder (3%). Results indicated a lack of connectivity between winter and summer capture populations, some evidence of partial migration, and between-season fidelity to the region (winter-resident return; subsequent fall). Across seasons, the extent of movements and use of multiple wetland sites suggested that Wilson's Snipe were capable of exploratory movements but more regularly perceived local and fine-scale segments of the landscape as connected. Movements differed significantly by season and residency; individuals exhibited contracted movements during late winter and more expansive movements during precipitation-limited periods (late spring, summer, fall). Mean home-range size was 3.5 ± 0.93 km2 (100% minimum convex polygon [MCP]) and 1.6 ± 0.42 km2 (95% fixed kernel) and did not vary by sex; however, home range varied markedly by season (range of 100% MCPs: 1.04–7.56 km2). The results highlight the need to consider seasonal and interspecific differences in shorebird life histories and space-use requirements when developing regional wetland conservation plans.

Precipitation and temperature trends over central Italy (Abruzzo Region): 1951-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scorzini, Anna Rita; Leopardi, Maurizio

2018-02-01

This study analyses spatial and temporal trends of precipitation and temperatures over Abruzzo Region (central Italy), using historical climatic data from a dense observation network. The results show a general, although not significant, negative trend in the regionally averaged annual precipitation (- 1.8% of the yearly mean rainfall per decade). This reduction is particularly evident in winter, especially at mountain stations (average - 3% change/decade). Despite this general decreasing trend, a partial rainfall recovery is observed after the 1980s. Furthermore, the majority of meteorological stations register a significant warming over the last 60 years, (mean annual temperature increase of + 0.15 °C/decade), which reflects a rise in both minimum and maximum temperatures, with the latter generally increasing at a faster rate. Spring and summer are the seasons which contribute most to the general temperature increase, in particular at high elevation sites, which exhibit a more pronounced warming (+ 0.24 °C/decade). However, this tendency has not been uniform over 1951-2012, but it has been characterised by a cooling phenomenon in the first 30 years (1951-1981), followed by an even stronger warming during the last three decades (1982-2012). Finally, correlations between the climatic variables and the dominant teleconnection patterns in the Mediterranean basin are analysed to identify the potential influence of large-scale atmospheric dynamics on observed trends in Abruzzo. The results highlight the dominant role of the East-Atlantic pattern on seasonal temperatures, while more spatially heterogeneous associations, depending on the complex topography of the region, are identified between winter precipitation and the North Atlantic Oscillation, East-Atlantic and East-Atlantic/Western Russian patterns.

Relative contributions of mean-state shifts and ENSO-driven variability to precipitation changes in a warming climate

DOE PAGES

Bonfils, Celine J. W.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Phillips, Thomas J.; ...

2015-12-18

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of regional hydroclimate variability through far-reaching teleconnections. This study uses simulations performed with coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) to investigate how regional precipitation in the twenty-first century may be affected by changes in both ENSO-driven precipitation variability and slowly evolving mean rainfall. First, a dominant, time-invariant pattern of canonical ENSO variability (cENSO) is identified in observed SST data. Next, the fidelity with which 33 state-of-the-art CGCMs represent the spatial structure and temporal variability of this pattern (as well as its associated precipitation responses) is evaluated in simulations of twentieth-century climate change.more » Possible changes in both the temporal variability of this pattern and its associated precipitation teleconnections are investigated in twenty-first-century climate projections. Models with better representation of the observed structure of the cENSO pattern produce winter rainfall teleconnection patterns that are in better accord with twentieth-century observations and more stationary during the twenty-first century. Finally, the model-predicted twenty-first-century rainfall response to cENSO is decomposed into the sum of three terms: 1) the twenty-first-century change in the mean state of precipitation, 2) the historical precipitation response to the cENSO pattern, and 3) a future enhancement in the rainfall response to cENSO, which amplifies rainfall extremes. Lastly, by examining the three terms jointly, this conceptual framework allows the identification of regions likely to experience future rainfall anomalies that are without precedent in the current climate.« less

PATTERNS OF PRODUCTION AND PRECIPITATION-USE EFFICIENCY OF WINTER WHEAT AND NATIVE GRASSLANDS IN THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES. (R824993)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

Global change and the distributional dynamics of migratory bird populations wintering in Central America.

PubMed

La Sorte, Frank A; Fink, Daniel; Blancher, Peter J; Rodewald, Amanda D; Ruiz-Gutierrez, Viviana; Rosenberg, Kenneth V; Hochachka, Wesley M; Verburg, Peter H; Kelling, Steve

2017-12-01

Understanding the susceptibility of highly mobile taxa such as migratory birds to global change requires information on geographic patterns of occurrence across the annual cycle. Neotropical migrants that breed in North America and winter in Central America occur in high concentrations on their non-breeding grounds where they spend the majority of the year and where habitat loss has been associated with population declines. Here, we use eBird data to model weekly patterns of abundance and occurrence for 21 forest passerine species that winter in Central America. We estimate species' distributional dynamics across the annual cycle, which we use to determine how species are currently associated with public protected areas and projected changes in climate and land-use. The effects of global change on the non-breeding grounds is characterized by decreasing precipitation, especially during the summer, and the conversion of forest to cropland, grassland, or peri-urban. The effects of global change on the breeding grounds are characterized by increasing winter precipitation, higher temperatures, and the conversion of forest to peri-urban. During spring and autumn migration, species are projected to encounter higher temperatures, forests that have been converted to peri-urban, and increased precipitation during spring migration. Based on current distributional dynamics, susceptibility to global change is characterized by the loss of forested habitats on the non-breeding grounds, warming temperatures during migration and on the breeding grounds, and declining summer rainfall on the non-breeding grounds. Public protected areas with low and medium protection status are more prevalent on the non-breeding grounds, suggesting that management opportunities currently exist to mitigate near-term non-breeding habitat losses. These efforts would affect more individuals of more species during a longer period of the annual cycle, which may create additional opportunities for species to respond to changes in habitat or phenology that are likely to develop under climate change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Analysis of precipitation data in Bangladesh through hierarchical clustering and multidimensional scaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, Md. Habibur; Matin, M. A.; Salma, Umma

2017-12-01

The precipitation patterns of seventeen locations in Bangladesh from 1961 to 2014 were studied using a cluster analysis and metric multidimensional scaling. In doing so, the current research applies four major hierarchical clustering methods to precipitation in conjunction with different dissimilarity measures and metric multidimensional scaling. A variety of clustering algorithms were used to provide multiple clustering dendrograms for a mixture of distance measures. The dendrogram of pre-monsoon rainfall for the seventeen locations formed five clusters. The pre-monsoon precipitation data for the areas of Srimangal and Sylhet were located in two clusters across the combination of five dissimilarity measures and four hierarchical clustering algorithms. The single linkage algorithm with Euclidian and Manhattan distances, the average linkage algorithm with the Minkowski distance, and Ward's linkage algorithm provided similar results with regard to monsoon precipitation. The results of the post-monsoon and winter precipitation data are shown in different types of dendrograms with disparate combinations of sub-clusters. The schematic geometrical representations of the precipitation data using metric multidimensional scaling showed that the post-monsoon rainfall of Cox's Bazar was located far from those of the other locations. The results of a box-and-whisker plot, different clustering techniques, and metric multidimensional scaling indicated that the precipitation behaviour of Srimangal and Sylhet during the pre-monsoon season, Cox's Bazar and Sylhet during the monsoon season, Maijdi Court and Cox's Bazar during the post-monsoon season, and Cox's Bazar and Khulna during the winter differed from those at other locations in Bangladesh.

Linked hydrologic and climate variations in British Columbia and Yukon.

PubMed

Whitfield, P H

2001-01-01

Climatic and hydrologic variations between the decades 1976-1985 and 1986-1995 are examined at 34 climate stations and 275 hydrology stations. The variations in climate are distributed across a broad spatial area. Temperatures were generally warmer in the most recent decade, with many stations showing significant increases during the spring and fall. No significant decreases in temperature were found. Significant increases in temperature were more frequent in the south than in the northern portions of the region. Significant changes in precipitation were also more prevalent in the south. In coastal areas, there were significant decreases in precipitation during the dry season, and significant increases during the wet season. In the BC interior, significant precipitation decreases occurred during the fall, with significant increases during the winter and spring. In the north there were few changes in precipitation. The hydrologic responses to these variations in climate follow six distinctive patterns. The spatial distribution of these patterns suggests that in different ecozones, small variations in climate, particularly temperature, elicit different hydrologic responses.

Climate variability in SE Europe since 1450 AD based on a varved sediment record from Etoliko Lagoon (Western Greece)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koutsodendris, Andreas; Brauer, Achim; Reed, Jane M.; Plessen, Birgit; Friedrich, Oliver; Hennrich, Barbara; Zacharias, Ierotheos; Pross, Jörg

2017-03-01

To achieve deeper understanding of climate variability during the last millennium in SE Europe, we report new sedimentological and paleoecological data from Etoliko Lagoon, Western Greece. The record represents the southernmost annually laminated (i.e., varved) archive from the Balkan Peninsula spanning the Little Ice Age, allowing insights into critical time intervals of climate instability such as during the Maunder and Dalton solar minima. After developing a continuous, ca. 500-year-long varve chronology, high-resolution μ-XRF counts, stable-isotope data measured on ostracod shells, palynological (including pollen and dinoflagellate cysts), and diatom data are used to decipher the season-specific climate and ecosystem evolution at Etoliko Lagoon since 1450 AD. Our results show that the Etoliko varve record became more sensitive to climate change from 1740 AD onwards. We attribute this shift to the enhancement of primary productivity within the lagoon, which is documented by an up to threefold increase in varve thickness. This marked change in the lagoon's ecosystem was caused by: (i) increased terrestrial input of nutrients, (ii) a closer connection to the sea and human eutrophication particularly from 1850 AD onwards, and (iii) increasing summer temperatures. Integration of our data with those of previously published paleolake sediment records, tree-ring-based precipitation reconstructions, simulations of atmospheric circulation and instrumental precipitation data suggests that wet conditions in winter prevailed during 1740-1790 AD, whereas dry winters marked the periods 1790-1830 AD (Dalton Minimum) and 1830-1930 AD, the latter being sporadically interrupted by wet winters. This variability in precipitation can be explained by shifts in the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns over the European continent that affected the Balkan Peninsula (e.g., North Atlantic Oscillation). The transition between dry and wet phases at Etoliko points to longitudinal shifts of the precipitation pattern in the Balkan Peninsula during the Little Ice Age.

Modulation of the Polar Vortex by Energetic Particle Precipitation and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation via Ozone Loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asikainen, T.; Salminen, A.; Maliniemi, V.; Mursula, K.

2017-12-01

Energetic particle precipitation (EPP) has been shown to cause ozone loss in the stratosphere during polar winter. This has been suggested to enhance polar vortex with the effect propagating even to ground level, where it is observed as a more positive phase of the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), the dominant ground circulation pattern in the winter time at high latitudes. Recent research has also shown that the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) modulates the relationship between the ground NAM and EPP so that the positive correlation between the two is more clearly seen in the easterly phase of QBO measured at 30 hPa height especially during the late winter season. Here we elaborate the QBO modulated connection between EPP and NAM by studying how the EPP affects the stratospheric polar vortex in the two phases of the QBO. Since the EPP presumably affects the polar stratosphere via indirect ozone loss we will study how the EPP modulates the amount of ozone, the stratospheric temperatures and zonal winds in the two QBO phases.

Modulation of the polar vortex by energetic particle precipitation and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation via ozone loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salminen, Antti; Asikainen, Timo; Maliniemi, Ville; Mursula, Kalevi

2017-04-01

Energetic particle precipitation (EPP) has been shown to cause ozone loss in the stratosphere during polar winter. This has been suggested to enhance polar vortex with the effect propagating even to ground level, where it is observed as a more positive phase of the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), the dominant ground circulation pattern in the winter time at high latitudes. Recent research has also shown that the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) modulates the relationship between the ground NAM and EPP so that the positive correlation between the two is more clearly seen in the easterly phase of QBO measured at 30 hPa height especially during the late winter season. Here we elaborate the QBO modulated connection between EPP and NAM by studying how the EPP affects the stratospheric polar vortex in the two phases of the QBO. Since the EPP presumably affects the polar stratosphere via indirect ozone loss we will study how the EPP modulates the amount of ozone, the stratospheric temperatures and zonal winds in the two QBO phases.

Circulation weather types and their influence on precipitation in Serbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Putniković, Suzana; Tošić, Ivana; Đurđević, Vladimir

2016-10-01

An objective classification scheme of atmospheric circulation, in which daily circulation is determined by the strength, direction, and vorticity of geostrophic flow, has been applied to the atmosphere over Serbia for the time period 1961-2010. The results for the sea level and isobaric level of 500 hPa for winter and summer are presented. The 26 circulation types (eight pure direction, 16 hybrid, cyclonic, and anticyclonic types) are determined and described. Each of the circulation types has a distinct underlying synoptic pattern that produces the expected type and direction of flow over the study area. The relative frequencies of the circulation types, and the relationship between the precipitation and circulation types at three stations on a seasonal time scale are analyzed. The anticyclonic weather type dominates in winter (18.93 %) and summer (18.70 %), followed by the northeasterly type (16.65 %) in summer, and the cyclonic type (12.83 %) in winter. The cyclonic types (C and hybrid) have a higher than average probability of rain at all stations. Conversely, the anticyclonic types are associated with a lower than average probability and intensity of rainfall.

Seasonal relationships between precipitation, forest floor, and streamwater nitrogen, Isle Royale, Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stottlemyer, R.; Toczydlowski, D.

1999-01-01

The Upper Great Lakes receive large amounts of precipitation-NH4/+ and moderate NO3/- inputs. Increased atmospheric inorganic N input has led to concern about ecosystem capacity to utilize excess N. This paper summarizes a 5-yr study of seasonal N content and flux in precipitation, snowpack, forest floor, and streamwater in order to assess the source of inorganic N outputs in streamflow from a small boreal watershed. Average precipitation N input was 3 kg ha-1 yr-1. The peak snowpack N content averaged 0.55 kg ha-1. The forest floor inorganic N pool was ???2 kg ha-1, eight times larger than monthly precipitation N input. The inorganic N pool size peaked in spring and early summer. Ninety percent of the forest floor inorganic N pool was made up of NH4/+-N. Forest floor inorganic N pools generally increased with temperature. Net N mineralization was 15 kg ha-1 yr-1, and monthly rates peaked in early summer. During winter, the mean monthly net N mineralization rate was twice the peak snowpack N content. Streamwater NO3/- concentration peaked in winter, and inorganic N output peaked in late fall. Beneath the dominant boreal forest species, net N mineralization rates were positively correlated (P < 0.05) with streamwater NO3/- concentrations. Forest floor NO3/- pools beneath alder [Alnus rugosa (Du Roi) Spreng] were positively correlated (P < 0.01) to streamwater NO3/- output. At the watershed mouth, streamwater NO3/- concentrations were positively correlated (P < 0.05) with precipitation NO3/- input and precipitation amount. The relatively small snowpack N content and seasonal precipitation N input compared to forest floor inorganic N pools and net N mineralization rates, the strong ecosystem retention of precipitation N inputs, and the seasonal streamwater NO3/- concentration and output pattern all indicated that little streamwater NO3/- came directly from precipitation or snowmelt.The Upper Great Lakes receive large amounts of precipitation-NH4+ and moderate NO3- inputs. Increased atmospheric inorganic N input has led to concern about ecosystem capacity to utilize excess N. This paper summarizes a 5-yr study of seasonal N content and flux in precipitation, snowpack, forest floor, and streamwater in order to assess the source of inorganic N outputs in streamflow from a small boreal watershed. Average precipitation N input was 3 kg ha-1 yr-1. The peak snowpack N content averaged 0.55 kg ha-1. The forest floor inorganic N pool was ??? 2 kg ha-1, eight times larger than monthly precipitation N input. The inorganic N pool size peaked in spring and early summer. Ninety percent of the forest floor inorganic N pool was made up of NH4+-N. Forest floor inorganic N pools generally increased with temperature. Net N mineralization was 15 kg ha-1 yr-1, and monthly rates peaked in early summer. During winter, the mean monthly net N mineralization rate was twice the peak snowpack N content. Streamwater NO3- concentration peaked in winter, and inorganic N output peaked in late fall. Beneath the dominant boreal forest species, net N mineralization rates were positively correlated (P < 0.05) with streamwater NO3- concentrations. Forest floor NO3- pools beneath alder [Alnus rugosa (Du Roi) Spreng] were positively correlated (P<0.01) to streamwater NO3- output. At the watershed mouth, streamwater NO3- concentrations were positively correlated (P < 0.05) with precipitation NO3- input and precipitation amount. The relatively small snowpack N content and seasonal precipitation N input compared to forest floor inorganic N pools and net N mineralization rates, the strong ecosystem retention of precipitation N inputs, and the seasonal streamwater NO3- concentration and output pattern all indicated that little streamwater NO3- came directly from precipitation or snowmelt.

Precipitation and temperature changes in the major Chinese river basins during 1957-2013 and links to sea surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Qing; Prange, Matthias; Merkel, Ute

2016-05-01

The variation characteristics of precipitation and temperature in the three major Chinese river basins (Yellow River, Yangtze River and Pearl River) in the period of 1957-2013 were analyzed on an annual and seasonal basis, as well as their links to sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean on both interannual and decadal time scales. Annual mean temperature of the three river basins increased significantly overall since 1957, with an average warming rate of about 0.19 °C/10a, but the warming was characterized by a staircase form with steps around 1987 and 1998. The significant increase of annual mean temperature could mostly be attributed to the remarkable warming trend in spring, autumn and winter. Warming rates in the northern basins were generally much higher than in the southern basins. However, both the annual precipitation and seasonal mean precipitation of the three river basins showed little change in the study area average, but distinct interannual variations since 1957 and clear regional differences. An overall warming-wetting tendency was found in the northwestern and southeastern river basins in 1957-2013, while the central regions tended to become warmer and drier. Results from a Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA) showed that the interannual variations of seasonal mean precipitation and surface air temperature over the three river basins were both associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) since 1957. ENSO SST patterns affected precipitation and surface air temperature variability throughout the year, but with very different response patterns in the different seasons. For instance, temperature in most of the river basins was positively correlated with central-eastern equatorial Pacific SST in winter and spring, but negatively correlated in summer and autumn. On the decadal time scale, the seasonal mean precipitation and surface air temperature variations were strongly associated with the Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation.

Large-scale circulation classification and its links to observed precipitation in the eastern and central Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Wenbin; Wang, Lei; Chen, Deliang; Tu, Kai; Ruan, Chengqing; Hu, Zengyun

2016-06-01

The relationship between the large-scale circulation dynamics and regional precipitation regime in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has so far not been well understood. In this study, we classify the circulation types using the self-organizing maps based on the daily field of 500 hPa geopotential height and link them to the precipitation climatology in the eastern and central TP. By virtue of an objective determining method, 18 circulation types are quantified. The results show that the large amount of precipitation in summer is closely related to the circulation types in which the enhanced and northward shifted subtropical high (SH) over the northwest Pacific and the obvious cyclconic circulation anomaly over the Bay of Bengal are helpful for the Indian summer monsoon and East Asian summer monsoon to take abundant low-latitude moisture to the eastern and southern TP. On the contrary, the dry winter in the central and eastern Tibet corresponds to the circulation types with divergence over the central and eastern TP and the water vapor transportations of East Asian winter monsoon and mid-latitude westerly are very weak. Some circulation types are associated with some well-known circulation patterns/monsoons influencing the TP (e.g. East Atlantic Pattern, El Niño Southern Oscillation, Indian Summer Monsoon and the mid-latitude westerly), and exhibit an overall good potential for explaining the variability of regional seasonal precipitation. Moreover, the climate shift signals in the late 1970s over the eastern Pacific/North Pacific Oceans could also be reflected by both the variability of some circulation types and their correspondingly composite precipitations. This study extends our understandings for the large-scale atmospheric dynamics and their linkages with regional precipitation and is beneficial for the climate change projection and related adaptation activities in the highest and largest plateau in the world.

An objective daily Weather Type classification for Iberia since 1850; patterns, trends, variability and impact in precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, A. M.; Trigo, R. M.; Lorenzo, M. N.; Vaquero, J. M.; Gallego, M. C.; Valente, M. A.; Gimeno, L.

2009-04-01

In recent years a large number of automated classifications of atmospheric circulation patterns have been published covering the entire European continent or specific sub-regions (Huth et al., 2008). This generalized use of objective classifications results from their relatively straightforward computation but crucially from their capacity to provide simple description of typical synoptic conditions as well as their climatic and environmental impact. For this purpose, the vast majority of authors has employed the Reanalyses datasets, namely from either NCEP/NCAR or ECMWF projects. However, both these widely used datasets suffer from important caveats, namely their restricted temporal coverage, that is limited to the last six decades (NCEP/NCAR since 1948 and ECMWF since 1958). This limitation has been partially mitigated by the recent availability of continuous daily mean sea level pressure obtained within the European project EMULATE, that extended the historic records over the extra-tropical Atlantic and Europe (70°-25° N by 70° W-50° E), for the period 1850 to the present (Ansell, T. J. et al. 2006). Here we have used the extended EMULATE dataset to construct an automated version of the Lamb Weather type (WTs) classification scheme (Jones et al 1993) adapted for the center of the Iberian Peninsula. We have identified 10 basic WTs (Cyclonic, Anticyclonic and 8 directional types) following a similar methodology to that previously adopted by Trigo and DaCamara, 2000 (for Portugal) and Lorenzo et al. 2008 (for Galicia, northwestern Iberia). We have evaluated trends of monthly/seasonal frequency of each WT for the entire period and several shorter periods. Finally, we use the long-term precipitation time series from Lisbon (recently digitized) and Cadiz (southern Spain) to evaluate, the impact of each WT on the precipitation regime. It is shown that the Anticyclonic (A) type, although being the most frequent class in winter, gives a rather small contribution to the winter precipitation amount, observed on a daily basis. On the other hand, the three wettest WTs, namely the Cyclonic (C), South-westerly (SW) and Westerly (W) types, together representing roughly a third of all winter days, do account for more than 60% of the observed daily precipitation. It is shown that the large inter-annual variability of precipitation in both cities is highly related with the corresponding inter-annual variability of the wet WTs. Ansell, T. J. et al. (2006) Daily mean sea level pressure reconstructions for the European - North Atlantic region for the period 1850-2003, Journal of Climate, 19, 2717-2742, doi: 10.1175/JCLI3775.1 Huth R., Beck C., Philipp A., Demuzere M, Ustrnul Z, Cahynová M., Kyselý J., Tveito O.E. (2008) Classifications of atmospheric circulation patterns: recent advances and applications. Trends and Directions in Climate Research: Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. 1146:, 105-152 Jones, P. D. , M. Hulme , K. R. Briffa. (1993) A comparison of Lamb circulation types with an objective classification scheme. Int. J. Climatol. 13: 655- 663. Lorenzo M.N., Taboada J.J. and Gimeno L. (2008) Links between circulation weather types and teleconnection patterns and their influence on precipitation patterns in Galicia (NW Spain). Int. J. Climatol. Published Online: Nov 12 2007 5:30AM DOI: 10.1002/joc.1646. Trigo R.M. and Da Camara C.C. (2000) Circulation weather types and their influence on the precipitation regime in Portugal. Int. J. Climatol., 20, 1559-1581.

Climate Drivers of Spatiotemporal Variability of Precipitation in the Source Region of Yangtze River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Y.; Berndtsson, R.; An, D.; Yuan, F.

2017-12-01

Variability of precipitation regime has significant influence on the environment sustainability in the source region of Yangtze River, especially when the vegetation degradation and biodiversity reduction have already occurred. Understanding the linkage between variability of local precipitation and global teleconnection patterns is essential for water resources management. Based on physical reasoning, indices of the climate drivers can provide a practical way of predicting precipitation. Due to high seasonal variability of precipitation, climate drivers of the seasonal precipitation also varies. However, few reports have gone through the teleconnections between large scale patterns with seasonal precipitation in the source region of Yangtze River. The objectives of this study are therefore (1) assessment of temporal trend and spatial variability of precipitation in the source region of Yangtze River; (2) identification of climate indices with strong influence on seasonal precipitation anomalies; (3) prediction of seasonal precipitation based on revealed climate indices. Principal component analysis and Spearman rank correlation were used to detect significant relationships. A feed-forward artificial neural network(ANN) was developed to predict seasonal precipitation using significant correlated climate indices. Different influencing climate indices were revealed for precipitation in each season, with significant level and lag times. Significant influencing factors were selected to be the predictors for ANN model. With correlation coefficients between observed and simulated precipitation over 0.5, the results were eligible to predict the precipitation of spring, summer and winter using teleconnections, which can improve integrated water resources management in the source region of Yangtze River.

Seasonal survival estimation for a long-distance migratory bird and the influence of winter precipitation

Treesearch

Sarah M. Rockwell; Joseph M. Wunderle; T. Scott Sillett; Carol I. Bocetti; David N. Ewert; Dave Currie; Jennifer D. White; Peter P. Marra

2017-01-01

Conservation of migratory animals requires information about seasonal survival rates. Identifying factors that limit populations, and the portions of the annual cycle in which they occur, are critical for recognizing and reducing potential threats. However, such data are lacking for virtually all migratory taxa. We investigated patterns and environmental correlates of...

Seasonality of Groundwater Recharge in the Basin and Range Province, Western North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neff, K. L.; Meixner, T.; Ajami, H.; De La Cruz, L.

2015-12-01

For water-scarce communities in the western U.S., it is critical to understand groundwater recharge regimes and how those regimes might shift in the face of climate change and impact groundwater resources. Watersheds in the Basin and Range Geological Province are characterized by a variable precipitation regime of wet winters and variable summer precipitation. The relative contributions to groundwater recharge by summer and winter precipitation vary throughout the province, with winter precipitation recharge dominant in the northern parts of the region, and recharge from summer monsoonal precipitation playing a more significant role in the south, where the North American Monsoon (NAM) extends its influence. Stable water isotope data of groundwater and seasonal precipitation from sites in Sonora, Mexico and the U.S. states of California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Texas were examined to estimate and compare groundwater recharge seasonality throughout the region. Contributions of winter precipitation to annual recharge vary from 69% ± 41% in the southernmost Río San Miguel Basin in Sonora, Mexico, to 100% ± 36% in the westernmost Mojave Desert of California. The Normalized Seasonal Wetness Index (NSWI), a simple water budget method for estimating recharge seasonality from climatic data, was shown to approximate recharge seasonality well in several winter precipitation-dominated systems, but less well in basins with significant summer precipitation.

Historic Storminess Changes in North Atlantic Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dawson, A. G.; Elliott, L.; Noone, S.; Hickey, K.; Foster, I.; Wadhams, P.; Mayewski, P.

2001-05-01

Reconstructed patterns of historic storminess (1870-1990 AD) for North Atlantic region as indicated by measurements from selected stations in Iceland, Faeroes, Scotland and Ireland show clear links with the climate "seesaw" winters first described by Van Loon and Rogers. The stormiest winters appear to have occurred during periods when measured Greenland air temperatures at Jacobshavn and reconstructed air temperatures from the Summit ice core site have been exceptionally low and when air temperature across northern Europe have been well above average. Maxima and minima of recorded winter storms for the various stations are also in agreement with the Sodium chronology from GISP2 that points to increased sea salt precipitation on Greenland ice at Summit during Greenland "below" periods of the climate seesaw.

Potential links between the North Atlantic Oscillation and decreasing precipitation and runoff on a Mediterranean area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montaldo, Nicola; Sarigu, Alessio

2017-10-01

In the Mediterranean region, the reduction in precipitation and warmer temperatures is generating a desertification process, with dramatic consequences for both agriculture and the sustainability of water resources. On the island of Sardinia (Italy), the decrease in runoff impacts the management of water resources, resulting in water supply restrictions even for domestic consumption. In the 10 Sardinian basins with a longer database (at least 40 complete years of data, including data from the past 10 years), runoff decreased drastically over the 1975-2010 period, with mean yearly runoff reduced by more than 40% compared to the previous 1922-1974 period. Trends in yearly runoff are negative, with Mann-Kendall τ values ranging from -0.39 to -0.2. Decreasing winter precipitation over the 1975-2010 period everywhere on Sardinia island has led to these decreases in runoff, as most yearly runoff in the Sardinian basins (70% on average) is produced by winter precipitation due to the seasonality typical of the Mediterranean climate regime. The trend in winter precipitation is not homogenous; the negative trend is higher (around -0.25) on the west Sardinian coast, becoming lower across the island toward the east coast (around -0.14). Winter precipitation is highly correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a weather phenomenon in the North Atlantic Ocean that controls the direction and strength of westerly winds and storm tracks into Europe. High negative correlations (up to -0.45) between winter NAO index and winter precipitation are estimated along the west coast. Meanwhile, these correlations decrease east across the island toward the high mountain in the center of Sardinia, reaching the lowest values along the east coast (about -0.25). The generally decreasing correlation between winter NAO index and winter precipitation in the longitudinal direction (from the North Atlantic dipole to the east) here accelerates due to local-scale orographic effects that overlap the large-scale NAO impact on the winter precipitation regime, thus softening the precipitation reduction due to the NAO. Such local topographic effects that may attenuate large-scale climate change effects must be considered in water resource planning and management alongside such climate change effects related to large-scale circulations, such as NAO.

Potential links between the North Atlantic Oscillation and decreasing precipitation and runoff on Sardinia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarigu, A.; Montaldo, N.

2017-12-01

In the Mediterranean region, the reduction in precipitation and warmer temperatures is generating a desertification process, with dramatic consequences for both agriculture and the sustainability of water resources. On the island of Sardinia (Italy), the decrease in runoff impacts the management of water resources, resulting in water supply restrictions even for domestic consumption. In the 10 Sardinian basins with a longer database (at least 40 complete years of data, including data from the past 10 years), runoff decreased drastically over the 1975-2010 period, with mean yearly runoff reduced by more than 40% compared to the previous 1922-1974 period. Trends in yearly runoff are negative, with Mann-Kendall τ values ranging from -0.39 to -0.2. Decreasing winter precipitation over the 1975-2010 period everywhere on Sardinia island has led to these decreases in runoff, as most yearly runoff in the Sardinian basins (70% on average) is produced by winter precipitation due to the seasonality typical of the Mediterranean climate regime. The trend in winter precipitation is not homogenous; the negative trend is higher (around -0.25) on the west Sardinian coast, becoming lower across the island toward the east coast (around -0.14). Winter precipitation is highly correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a weather phenomenon in the North Atlantic Ocean that controls the direction and strength of westerly winds and storm tracks into Europe. High negative correlations (up to -0.45) between winter NAO index and winter precipitation are estimated along the west coast. Meanwhile, these correlations decrease east across the island toward the high mountain in the center of Sardinia, reaching the lowest values along the east coast (about -0.25). The decreasing correlation between winter NAO index and winter precipitation in the longitudinal direction (from the North Atlantic dipole to the east) here accelerates due to local-scale orographic effects that overlap the large-scale NAO impact on the winter precipitation regime, thus softening the precipitation reduction due to the NAO. Such local topographic effects that may attenuate large-scale climate change effects must be considered in water resource planning and management alongside such climate change effects related to large-scale circulations, such as NAO.

Investigation of the 2006 Drought and 2007 Flood Extremes at the Southern Great Plains Through an Integrative Analysis of Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dong, Xiquan; Xi, Baike; Kennedy, Aaron; Feng, Zhe; Entin, Jared K.; Houser, Paul R.; Schiffer, Robert A.; LEucyer, Tristan; Olson, William S.; Hsu, Kuo-lin;

Moisture sources and pathways associated with the spatial variability of seasonal extreme precipitation over Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Xuezhi; Gan, Thian Yew; Chen, Yongqin David

2018-01-01

Nine regions with spatially coherent seasonal 3-day total precipitation extremes across Canada were identified using a clustering method that is compliant to the extreme value theory. Using storm back-trajectory analyses, we then identified possible moisture sources and pathways that are conducive to occurrences of seasonal extreme precipitation events in four seasons for the nine regions identified. Moisture pathways for all extreme precipitation events were clustered to nine dominant moisture pathway patterns using the self-organizing map method. Results show that horizontal moisture pathway patterns and their occurrences were not evidently different between seasons. However, warm (summer and fall) and cold (winter and spring) seasons show considerable differences in the spreading of moisture sources in all nine regions, even though many sources do not frequently contribute to extreme precipitation events. In all four seasons, terrestrial evapotranspiration had provided major moisture sources to many extreme precipitation events occurred in inland regions. Central Canada had received more widespread moisture sources over surrounding oceans of North America than western and eastern Canada, because of more diverse moisture pathway patterns for central Canada that transport moisture from all surrounding oceans to central Canada. Extreme precipitation in southwestern Canada mainly resulted from atmospheric rivers over the North Pacific Ocean. For northwestern Canada, moisture pathway patterns were from the northern Pacific, Arctic and northern Atlantic oceans, even though more than 78% of trajectories for northwestern Canada were from the North Pacific. Westerlies from the North Pacific Ocean and northern polar jet streams controlled dominant pathways to central and eastern Canada. More extreme precipitation events over Canada were fed by the Arctic Ocean in warm than in cold seasons.

Moisture sources and pathways associated with the spatial variability of seasonal extreme precipitation over Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gan, T. Y. Y.; Tan, X.; Chen, Y. D.

2017-12-01

Nine regions with spatially coherent seasonal 3-day total precipitation extremes across Canada were identified using a clustering method that is compliant to the extreme value theory. Using storm back-trajectory analyses, we then identified possible moisture sources and pathways that are conducive to occurrences of seasonal extreme precipitation events in four seasons for the nine regions identified.Moisture pathways for all extreme precipitation events were clustered to nine dominant moisture pathway patterns using the self-organizing map method. Results show that horizontal moisture pathway patterns and their occurrences were not evidently different between seasons. However, warm (summer and fall) and cold (winter and spring) seasons show considerable differences in the spreading ofmoisture sources in all nine regions, even though many sources do not frequently contribute to extreme precipitation events. In all four seasons, terrestrial evapotranspiration had provided major moisture sources to many extreme precipitation events occurred in inland regions. Central Canada had received more widespread moisture sources over surrounding oceans of North America than western and eastern Canada, because of more diverse moisture pathway patterns for central Canada that transport moisture from all surrounding oceans to central Canada. Extreme precipitation in southwestern Canada mainly resulted from atmospheric rivers over the North Pacific Ocean. For northwestern Canada, moisture pathway patterns were from the northern Pacific, Arctic and northern Atlantic oceans, even though more than 78% of trajectories for northwestern Canada were from the North Pacific. Westerlies from the North Pacific Ocean and northern polar jet streams controlled dominant pathways to central and eastern Canada. More extreme precipitation events over Canada were fed by the Arctic Ocean in warm than in cold seasons.

Estimates of the seasonal mean vertical velocity fields of the extratropical Northern Hemisphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, G. H.

1983-01-01

Indirect methods are employed to estimate the wintertime and summertime mean vertical velocity fields of the extratropical Northern Hemisphere and intercomparisons are made, together with comparisons with mean seasonal patterns of cloudiness and precipitation. Twice-daily NMC operational analyses produced general circulation statistics for 11 winters and 12 summers, permitting calculation of the seasonal NMC averages for 6 hr forecasts, solution of the omega equation, integration of continuity equation downward from 100 mb, and solution of the thermodynamic energy equation in the absence of diabatic heating. The methods all yielded similar vertical velocity patterns; however, the magnitude of the vertical velocities could not be calculated with great accuracy. Orography was concluded to have less of an effect in summer than in winter, when winds are stronger.

To Which Extent can Aerosols Affect Alpine Mixed-Phase Clouds?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henneberg, O.; Lohmann, U.

2017-12-01

Aerosol-cloud interactions constitute a high uncertainty in regional climate and changing weather patterns. Such uncertainties are due to the multiple processes that can be triggered by aerosol especially in mixed-phase clouds. Mixed-phase clouds most likely result in precipitation due to the formation of ice crystals, which can grow to precipitation size. Ice nucleating particles (INPs) determine how fast these clouds glaciate and form precipitation. The potential for INP to transfer supercooled liquid clouds to precipitating clouds depends on the available humidity and supercooled liquid. Those conditions are determined by dynamics. Moderately high updraft velocities result in persistent mixed-phase clouds in the Swiss Alps [1], which provide an ideal testbed to investigate the effect of aerosol on precipitation in mixed-phase clouds. To address the effect of aerosols in orographic winter clouds under different dynamic conditions, we run a number of real case ensembles with the regional climate model COSMO on a horizontal resolution of 1.1 km. Simulations with different INP concentrations within the range observed at the GAW research station Jungfraujoch in the Swiss Alps are conducted and repeated within the ensemble. Microphysical processes are described with a two-moment scheme. Enhanced INP concentrations enhance the precipitation rate of a single precipitation event up to 20%. Other precipitation events of similar strength are less affected by the INP concentration. The effect of CCNs is negligible for precipitation from orographic winter clouds in our case study. There is evidence for INP to change precipitation rate and location more effectively in stronger dynamic regimes due to the enhanced potential to transfer supercooled liquid to ice. The classification of the ensemble members according to their dynamics will quantify the interaction of aerosol effects and dynamics. Reference [1] Lohmann et al, 2016: Persistence of orographic mixed-phase clouds, GRL

Classifying Multi-Model Wheat Yield Impact Response Surfaces Showing Sensitivity to Temperature and Precipitation Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fronzek, Stefan; Pirttioja, Nina; Carter, Timothy R.; Bindi, Marco; Hoffmann, Holger; Palosuo, Taru; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita; Tao, Fulu; Trnka, Miroslav; Acutis, Marco;

Norwegian fjord sediments reveal NAO related winter temperature and precipitation changes of the past 2800 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faust, Johan C.; Fabian, Karl; Milzer, Gesa; Giraudeau, Jacques; Knies, Jochen

2016-02-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the leading mode of atmospheric circulation variability in the North Atlantic region. Associated shifts of storm tracks, precipitation and temperature patterns affect energy supply and demand, fisheries and agricultural, as well as marine and terrestrial ecological dynamics. Long-term NAO records are crucial to better understand its response to climate forcing factors, and assess predictability and shifts associated with ongoing climate change. A recent study of instrumental time series revealed NAO as main factor for a strong relation between winter temperature, precipitation and river discharge in central Norway over the past 50 years. Here we compare geochemical measurements with instrumental data and show that primary productivity recorded in central Norwegian fjord sediments is sensitive to NAO variability. This observation is used to calibrate paleoproductivity changes to a 500-year reconstruction of winter NAO (Luterbacher et al., 2001). Conditioned on a stationary relation between our climate proxy and the NAO we establish a first high resolution NAO proxy record (NAOTFJ) from marine sediments covering the past 2800 years. The NAOTFJ shows distinct co-variability with climate changes over Greenland, solar activity and Northern Hemisphere glacier dynamics as well as climatically associated paleo-demographic trends. The here presented climate record shows that fjord sediments provide crucial information for an improved understanding of the linkages between atmospheric circulation, solar and oceanic forcing factors.

Sea surface salinity and temperature-based predictive modeling of southwestern US winter precipitation: improvements, errors, and potential mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, T.; Schmitt, R. W.; Li, L.

2017-12-01

Using 69 years of historical data from 1948-2017, we developed a method to globally search for sea surface salinity (SSS) and temperature (SST) predictors of regional terrestrial precipitation. We then applied this method to build an autumn (SON) SSS and SST-based 3-month lead predictive model of winter (DJF) precipitation in southwestern United States. We also find that SSS-only models perform better than SST-only models. We previously used an arbitrary correlation coefficient (r) threshold, |r| > 0.25, to define SSS and SST predictor polygons for best subset regression of southwestern US winter precipitation; from preliminary sensitivity tests, we find that |r| > 0.18 yields the best models. The observed below-average precipitation (0.69 mm/day) in winter 2015-2016 falls within the 95% confidence interval of the prediction model. However, the model underestimates the anomalous high precipitation (1.78 mm/day) in winter 2016-2017 by more than three-fold. Moisture transport mainly attributed to "pineapple express" atmospheric rivers (ARs) in winter 2016-2017 suggests that the model falls short on a sub-seasonal scale, in which case storms from ARs contribute a significant portion of seasonal terrestrial precipitation. Further, we identify a potential mechanism for long-range SSS and precipitation teleconnections: standing Rossby waves. The heat applied to the atmosphere from anomalous tropical rainfall can generate standing Rossby waves that propagate to higher latitudes. SSS anomalies may be indicative of anomalous tropical rainfall, and by extension, standing Rossby waves that provide the long-range teleconnections.

Changing Waters: Are Climate-Driven Changes in Discharge Regimes Increasing Eutrophication Risk in the Great Lakes Basin?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Meter, K. J.; Basu, N. B.

2017-12-01

In recent decades, the Great Lakes Basin (GLB) has experienced increasing precipitation, warming temperatures, and earlier spring thaws. During this same period, the region has been plagued by problems of water quality, with Lake Erie, in particular, experiencing a re-emergence of major eutrophication events, including an increased incidence of Harmful Algal Blooms. Although the prevailing paradigm is that eutrophication of inland waters is directly correlated with total phosphorus (P) inputs, recent decades have seen a decrease in the total P being delivered to the lakes from contributing watersheds. This apparent disconnect between inputs and outputs, i.e. decreasing P inputs but increased eutrophication, has led some to speculate that loading of total P is an insufficient metric of eutrophication risk and that increasing ratios of soluble reactive P (SRP) in relation to the total P (TP) entering inland water bodies may be a more important driver of algal growth. We hypothesize that changes in seasonal discharge patterns may be contributing to changes in the forms of P being delivered to the lakes, potentially due to changes in delivery pathways-for example surface pathways are more dominant in spring snowmelt, while shallow subsurface and tile pathways are more dominant during winter freeze-thaw events. To test this hypothesis, we have utilized data from more than 200 gaging stations across the GLB to explore the influences of climate and changing hydrologic patterns on biogeochemical processing and transport within the GLB. More specifically, we have asked the following questions: 1) How are discharge patterns changing across the GLB? 2) Are SRP:TP ratios increasing in subwatersheds of the GLB, and what are the spatial patterns in these changes? 3) Are climate-related changes in seasonality, e.g. earlier snowmelt, decreasing snowfall, longer growing seasons, linked to increased ratios of bioavailable P? Our results suggest that changes in precipitation as well as milder winters have led to a seasonal homogenization of discharge within the GLB, with decreases in spring flows but significant increases in winter discharge. Our results also show significant increases in SRP:TP ratios across the GLB, largely driven by the increased winter discharge and high SRP concentrations during the winter months.

Climate and life-history evolution in evening primroses (Oenothera, Onagraceae): a phylogenetic comparative analysis.

PubMed

Evans, Margaret E K; Hearn, David J; Hahn, William J; Spangle, Jennifer M; Venable, D Lawrence

2005-09-01

Evolutionary ecologists have long sought to understand the conditions under which perennial (iteroparous) versus annual (semelparous) plant life histories are favored. We evaluated the idea that aridity and variation in the length of droughts should favor the evolution of an annual life history, both by decreasing adult survival and by increasing the potential for high seedling survival via reduced plant cover. We calculated phylogenetically independent contrasts of climate with respect to life history in a clade of winter-establishing evening primroses (sections Anogra and Kleinia; Oenothera; Onagraceae), which includes seven annuals, 12 perennials, and two variable taxa. Climate variables were quantified from long-term records at weather stations near collection localities. To explicitly account for phylogenetic uncertainty, contrasts were calculated on a random sample of phylogenetic trees from the posterior distribution of a Bayesian analysis of DNA sequence data. Statements of association are based on comparing the per-tree mean contrast, which has a null expectation of zero, to a set of per-tree mean contrasts calculated on the same trees, after randomizing the climate data. As predicted, increased annual aridity, increased annual potential evapotranspiration, and decreased annual precipitation were associated with transitions to the annual habit, but these trends were not significantly different from the null pattern. Transitions to the annual habit were not significantly associated with increases in one measure of aridity in summer nor with increased summer drought, but they were associated with significantly increased maximum summer temperatures. In winter, increased aridity and decreased precipitation were significantly associated with transitions to the annual habit. Changes in life history were not significantly associated with changes in the coefficient of variation of precipitation, either on an annual or seasonal (summer vs. winter) basis. Though we cannot attribute causality on the basis of a correlational, historical study, our results are consistent with the idea that increased heat and drought at certain times of the year favor the evolution of the annual habit. Increased heat in summer may cause adult survival to decline, while increased aridity and decreased precipitation in the season of seedling recruitment (winter) may favor a drought-avoiding, short-lived annual strategy. Not all of the predicted patterns were observed: the capability for drought-induced dormancy may preclude change in habit in response to summer drought in our study group.

Interannual rainfall variability over China in the MetUM GA6 and GC2 configurations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephan, Claudia Christine; Klingaman, Nicholas P.; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Turner, Andrew G.; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Guo, Liang

2018-05-01

Six climate simulations of the Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 6.0 and Global Coupled 2.0 configurations are evaluated against observations and reanalysis data for their ability to simulate the mean state and year-to-year variability of precipitation over China. To analyse the sensitivity to air-sea coupling and horizontal resolution, atmosphere-only and coupled integrations at atmospheric horizontal resolutions of N96, N216 and N512 (corresponding to ˜ 200, 90 and 40 km in the zonal direction at the equator, respectively) are analysed. The mean and interannual variance of seasonal precipitation are too high in all simulations over China but improve with finer resolution and coupling. Empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) analysis is applied to simulated and observed precipitation to identify spatial patterns of temporally coherent interannual variability in seasonal precipitation. To connect these patterns to large-scale atmospheric and coupled air-sea processes, atmospheric and oceanic fields are regressed onto the corresponding seasonal mean time series. All simulations reproduce the observed leading pattern of interannual rainfall variability in winter, spring and autumn; the leading pattern in summer is present in all but one simulation. However, only in two simulations are the four leading patterns associated with the observed physical mechanisms. Coupled simulations capture more observed patterns of variability and associate more of them with the correct physical mechanism, compared to atmosphere-only simulations at the same resolution. However, finer resolution does not improve the fidelity of these patterns or their associated mechanisms. This shows that evaluating climate models by only geographical distribution of mean precipitation and its interannual variance is insufficient. The EOT analysis adds knowledge about coherent variability and associated mechanisms.

Fourteen years of forage monitoring on the California Central Coast shows tremendous variation

Treesearch

Royce Larsen; Karl Striby; Marc Horney

2015-01-01

To better understand forage production (above ground biomass) and precipitation patterns in the Central Coast region of California, the first in a growing network of primary production monitoring sites were established in 2001. The California Central Coast has a Mediterranean climate with cool, moist winters and hot, dry summers, and is dominated by annual grasslands...

Regionalization of precipitation characteristics in Iran's Lake Urmia basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fazel, Nasim; Berndtsson, Ronny; Uvo, Cintia Bertacchi; Madani, Kaveh; Kløve, Bjørn

2018-04-01

Lake Urmia in northwest Iran, once one of the largest hypersaline lakes in the world, has shrunk by almost 90% in area and 80% in volume during the last four decades. To improve the understanding of regional differences in water availability throughout the region and to refine the existing information on precipitation variability, this study investigated the spatial pattern of precipitation for the Lake Urmia basin. Daily rainfall time series from 122 precipitation stations with different record lengths were used to extract 15 statistical descriptors comprising 25th percentile, 75th percentile, and coefficient of variation for annual and seasonal total precipitation. Principal component analysis in association with cluster analysis identified three main homogeneous precipitation groups in the lake basin. The first sub-region (group 1) includes stations located in the center and southeast; the second sub-region (group 2) covers mostly northern and northeastern part of the basin, and the third sub-region (group 3) covers the western and southern edges of the basin. Results of principal component (PC) and clustering analyses showed that seasonal precipitation variation is the most important feature controlling the spatial pattern of precipitation in the lake basin. The 25th and 75th percentiles of winter and autumn are the most important variables controlling the spatial pattern of the first rotated principal component explaining about 32% of the total variance. Summer and spring precipitation variations are the most important variables in the second and third rotated principal components, respectively. Seasonal variation in precipitation amount and seasonality are explained by topography and influenced by the lake and westerly winds that are related to the strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Despite using incomplete time series with different lengths, the identified sub-regions are physically meaningful.

Role of resolution in regional climate change projections over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Ying; Wang, Guiling; Gao, Xuejie

2017-11-01

This paper investigates the sensitivity of projected future climate changes over China to the horizontal resolution of a regional climate model RegCM4.4 (RegCM), using RCP8.5 as an example. Model validation shows that RegCM performs better in reproducing the spatial distribution and magnitude of present-day temperature, precipitation and climate extremes than the driving global climate model HadGEM2-ES (HadGEM, at 1.875° × 1.25° degree resolution), but little difference is found between the simulations at 50 and 25 km resolutions. Comparison with observational data at different resolutions confirmed the added value of the RCM and finer model resolutions in better capturing the probability distribution of precipitation. However, HadGEM and RegCM at both resolutions project a similar pattern of significant future warming during both winter and summer, and a similar pattern of winter precipitation changes including dominant increase in most areas of northern China and little change or decrease in the southern part. Projected precipitation changes in summer diverge among the three models, especially over eastern China, with a general increase in HadGEM, little change in RegCM at 50 km, and a mix of increase and decrease in RegCM at 25 km resolution. Changes of temperature-related extremes (annual total number of daily maximum temperature > 25 °C, the maximum value of daily maximum temperature, the minimum value of daily minimum temperature in the three simulations especially in the two RegCM simulations are very similar to each other; so are the precipitation-related extremes (maximum consecutive dry days, maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation and extremely wet days' total amount). Overall, results from this study indicate a very low sensitivity of projected changes in this region to model resolution. While fine resolution is critical for capturing the spatial variability of the control climate, it may not be as important for capturing the climate response to homogeneous forcing (in this case greenhouse gas concentration changes).

Linkages between Icelandic Low position and SE Greenland winter precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berdahl, M.; Rennermalm, A. K.; Hammann, A. C.; Mioduszewski, J.; Hameed, S.; Tedesco, M.; Stroeve, J. C.; Mote, T. L.

2015-12-01

Greenland's largest flux of precipitation occurs in its Southeast (SE) region. An understanding of the mechanisms controlling precipitation in this region is lacking despite its disproportionate importance in the mass balance of Greenland and the consequent contributions to sea level rise. We use weather station data from the Danish Meteorological Institute to reveal the governing influences on precipitation in SE Greenland during the winter and fall. We find that precipitation in the fall is significantly correlated to the longitude of the Icelandic Low and the NAO. Winter precipitation is correlated with the strength and longitude of the Icelandic Low, as well as the NAO. We show that in years of extreme high precipitation, onshore winds dominate, thereby advecting more moisture inland. In low precipitation years, winds are more westerly, approaching the stations from land. Understanding the controls of SE Greenland precipitation will help us predict how future precipitation in this key region may change in a warming climate.

Model Errors in Simulating Precipitation and Radiation fields in the NARCCAP Hindcast Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J.; Waliser, D. E.; Mearns, L. O.; Mattmann, C. A.; McGinnis, S. A.; Goodale, C. E.; Hart, A. F.; Crichton, D. J.

2012-12-01

The relationship between the model errors in simulating precipitation and radiation fields including the surface insolation and OLR, is examined from the multi-RCM NARCCAP hindcast experiment for the conterminous U.S. region. Findings in this study suggest that the RCM biases in simulating precipitation are related with those in simulating radiation fields. For a majority of RCMs participated in the NARCCAP hindcast experiment as well as their ensemble, the spatial pattern of the insolation bias is negatively correlated with that of the precipitation bias, suggesting that the biases in precipitation and surface insolation are systematically related, most likely via the cloud fields. The relationship varies according to seasons as well with stronger relationship between the simulated precipitation and surface insolation during winter. This suggests that the RCM biases in precipitation and radiation are related via cloud fields. Additional analysis on the RCM errors in OLR is underway to examine more details of this relationship.

Determining the resilience of carbon dynamics in semi-arid biomes of the Southwestern US to severe drought and altered rainfall patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Litvak, M. E.; Krofcheck, D. J.; Hilton, T. W.; Fox, A. M.; Osuna, J. L.

2011-12-01

Water is critically important for biotic processes in semi-arid ecosystems and 2011 is developing as one of the most severe drought years on record for many parts of the Southwestern US. To quantify the impact of this severe drought on regional carbon and energy balance, we need a more detailed understanding of how water limitation alters ecosystem processes across a range of semi-arid biomes. We quantified the impact of severe drought and changes in both the quantity and distribution of precipitation on ecosystem biotic structure and function across the range of biomes represented in the NM elevation gradient network (desert grassland, creosote shrubland, juniper savanna, piñon-juniper woodland, ponderosa pine forest and subalpine mixed conifer forest). We compared how daily, seasonal and annual carbon and energy balance and their components in each of these biomes respond to changes in rainfall patterns using continuous measurements of carbon, water and energy exchange and associated measurements in each of these biomes during a 5 year period (2006-2011) that included a severe drought, and large variability in both winter precipitation and the timing and intensity of the monsoon. To understand the underlying mechanisms, we used time series of radiation absorbed by vegetation, surface albedo, soil moisture storage, phenology, gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (Re), and WorldView-2 images acquired pre- and post-monsoon in each of these biomes. In all of the biomes except the desert grassland site, the strength and timing of both winter and monsoon precipitation are important controls over carbon and energy dynamics in this region, though we see site-specific sensitivities across the elevation gradient. Over the past 5 years, carbon dynamics in the desert grassland site appears to be decoupled from winter precipitation. In addition, carbon dynamics in disturbed grassland and pinon-juniper ecosystems were more sensitive to severe drought than their undisturbed counterparts. We use the results to extend theory related to the vulnerability of semi-arid ecosystems to climate change and to understand biotic feedbacks within these biomes that may help to maintain resilience against structural and functional change. We also used the NCAR Community Land Model (CLM) parameterized for each biome and run in point mode to quantify the implications these changes in rainfall patterns have on ecosystem physiology, and regional carbon balance.

Probability of occurrence of monthly and seasonal winter precipitation over Northwest India based on antecedent-monthly precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nageswararao, M. M.; Mohanty, U. C.; Dimri, A. P.; Osuri, Krishna K.

2018-05-01

Winter (December, January, and February (DJF)) precipitation over northwest India (NWI) is mainly associated with the eastward moving mid-latitude synoptic systems, western disturbances (WDs), embedded within the subtropical westerly jet (SWJ), and is crucial for Rabi (DJF) crops. In this study, the role of winter precipitation at seasonal and monthly scale over NWI and its nine meteorological subdivisions has been analyzed. High-resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) gridded precipitation data set of India Meteorological Department (IMD) for the period of 1901-2013 is used. Results indicated that the seasonal precipitation over NWI is below (above) the long-term mean in most of the years, when precipitation in any of the month (December/January/February) is in deficit (excess). The contribution of December precipitation (15-20%) to the seasonal (DJF) precipitation is lesser than January (35-40%) and February (35-50%) over all the subdivisions. December (0.60), January (0.57), and February (0.69) precipitation is in-phase (correlation) with the corresponding winter season precipitation. However, January precipitation is not in-phase with the corresponding December (0.083) and February (-0.03) precipitation, while December is in-phase with the February (0.21). When monthly precipitation (December or January or December-January or February) at subdivision level over NWI is excess (deficit); then, the probability of occurrence of seasonal excess (deficit) precipitation is high (almost nil). When antecedent-monthly precipitation is a deficit or excess, the probability of monthly (January or February or January + February) precipitation to be a normal category is >60% over all the subdivisions. This study concludes that the December precipitation is a good indicator to estimate the performance of January, February, January-February, and the seasonal (DJF) precipitation.

Pattern of solute movement from snow into an upper Michigan stream

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stottlemyer, R.; Toczydlowski, D.

1990-01-01

Precipitation, snowpack, snowmelt, and streamwater samples were collected in a small gauged watershed draining into Lake Superior during winter 1987–88 to assess the importance of snowmelt pattern and meltwater pathways in the occurrence of solute pulses in streamwater. The snowpack along the south shore of Lake Superior can contain 50% of annual precipitation inputs and 38% of annual ionic inputs including moderate levels of strong acids. Throughout winter, thawed surface soils and small but steady snowpack moisture release promoted movement of snowpack solutes to surface mineral soils. Preferential elution of K+, NH4+, and H+ from the snowpack occurred with the initial thaw. Most ions exhibited pulses in snowmelt. Transport of snowpack solutes to the stream during snowmelt was through near-surface soil macropores and overland flow. For those ions with concentrations higher in the snowpack than in the premelt streamwater, K+, NH4+, and H+, the earliest snowmelt pulses had the greatest influence on streamwater chemistry. Unlike other portions of the region with resistant bedrock, the widespread presence of alkaline glacial till provides excess stream acid neutralization capacity (ANC) to buffer acidic inputs. Peak winter streamwater ANC reduction was caused principally by spring melt dilution of base cations and associated alkalinity, constant high SO42- levels, and an increase in NO3-. The maximum reduction in stream ANC was concurrent with overland flow. Relative to its snowmelt concentration, NO3- was highest in streamwater with some stream input likely the result of nitrification and N mineralization.

Potential links between the North Atlantic Oscillation and decreasing precipitation and runoff on Sardinia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montaldo, Nicola; Sarigu, Alessio

2017-04-01

Recently, climate change and human activities increased the desertification process in the Mediterranean regions, with dramatic consequences for agriculture and water resources. On the Sardinia island (Italy), runoff decreased significantly in the 1975-2010 period with a mean yearly runoff reduction of more than 50% compared to the previous 1922-1974 period. The decrease in runoff severely impacts the management of water resources on the Sardinia island, resulting in water supply restrictions even for domestic consumption. In the 10 Sardinian basins, with a longer database (at least 40 complete years of data, including data from the past 10 years), the trend of yearly runoff computed with the Mann-Kendall test is negative, with the Mann-Kendall τ values ranging from -0.39 to -0.2. The reason for the decrease in runoff is mainly the alarming decrease in the winter precipitation over the past few decades everywhere on the Sardinia island. Indeed, most of the yearly runoff of the Sardinian basins (on average, 70%) is produced by the winter precipitation due to the typical seasonality of the Mediterranean rainfall regime. Surprisingly, the winter precipitation trend is not homogenous; the negative trend is higher on the Sardinian west coast and becomes lower as one crosses the island toward the east coast. At the rain stations on the east coast, the τ Mann-Kendall values of the winter precipitation become almost half of the τ Mann-Kendall values on the west coast, which is exposed to the western European climate dynamics. In this sense, winter precipitation is highly correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which is a weather phenomenon in the North Atlantic Ocean that controls the direction and strength of westerly winds and storm tracks into Europe. High negative correlations (up to -0.45) between winter NAO and winter precipitation are estimated along the west coast. Meanwhile, the correlations decrease as one crosses the island toward the east, encounters the high mountain in the center of Sardinia, and reaches the lowest values on the east coast (about -0.25). Hence, the general decreasing trend in the correlation between winter NAO and precipitation along the longitudinal direction (from the North Atlantic dipole to the east) is accelerating here due to local-scale topographic effects that overlap the large-scale NAO impact and affect the winter precipitation regime, thus softening the NAO impact on precipitation reduction.

Attribution of low precipitation in California during the winter of 2013-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mera, R. J.; Ekwurzel, B.; Rupp, D. E.

2014-12-01

The record-setting drought in the state of California was further aggravated by extreme low precipitation in the winter of 2013-2014 and the associated low snow cover over the Sierra Nevada. Attribution work on the decline in Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover (Rupp et al. 2013) has shown that the decrease was likely the result of combined natural and anthropogenic forcing but not by natural forcing alone. Regional model superensemble simulations of snow water equivalent (SWE) with the Hadley Regional Climate Model (HadRM3P) shows the decline as a statistically-significant, linear trend for the Western US from 1961 to 2010. The present work focuses on attribution of these events by employing a superensemble of regional climate model simulations from the climateprediction.net (CPDN) experiment, which allows for robust statistical analysis of extreme events. Specifically, we compare the decade of the 2000s and the 1960s, which had different levels of heat-trapping gases and forcing from natural variability, among other factors. A linear regression of wet days and number of days with precipitation above 40 mm shows a strong drying pattern for the winter months of December, January, February, March (DJFM), especially for northern California and the Sierra Nevada. A strong warming pattern is also present during the winter months, with the minimum temperatures outpacing maximum temperatures for the Pacific Northwest. We will also investigate how simulations for DJFM 2013-2014, using only natural forcing provided CMIP5 HistoricalNat boundary conditions, compare against the model simulations using observations as boundary conditions. Results from this experiment also highlight the influence of increasing number of simulations on confidence intervals, which significantly reduces the uncertainty of both the change in magnitude of a given event and its corresponding return period.Rupp, David E., Philip W. Mote, Nathaniel L. Bindoff, Peter A. Stott, David A. Robinson, 2013: Detection and Attribution of Observed Changes in Northern Hemisphere Spring Snow Cover. J. Climate, 26, 6904-6914.doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00563.1

Climate Degradation and Extreme Icing Events Constrain Life in Cold-Adapted Mammals.

PubMed

Berger, J; Hartway, C; Gruzdev, A; Johnson, M

2018-01-18

Despite the growth in knowledge about the effects of a warming Arctic on its cold-adapted species, the mechanisms by which these changes affect animal populations remain poorly understood. Increasing temperatures, declining sea ice and altered wind and precipitation patterns all may affect the fitness and abundance of species through multiple direct and indirect pathways. Here we demonstrate previously unknown effects of rain-on-snow (ROS) events, winter precipitation, and ice tidal surges on the Arctic's largest land mammal. Using novel field data across seven years and three Alaskan and Russian sites, we show arrested skeletal growth in juvenile muskoxen resulting from unusually dry winter conditions and gestational ROS events, with the inhibitory effects on growth from ROS events lasting up to three years post-partum. Further, we describe the simultaneous entombment of 52 muskoxen in ice during a Chukchi Sea winter tsunami (ivuniq in Iñupiat), and link rapid freezing to entrapment of Arctic whales and otters. Our results illustrate how once unusual, but increasingly frequent Arctic weather events affect some cold-adapted mammals, and suggest that an understanding of species responses to a changing Arctic can be enhanced by coalescing groundwork, rare events, and insights from local people.

Timeslice experiments for understanding regional climate projections: applications to the tropical hydrological cycle and European winter circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chadwick, Robin; Douville, Hervé; Skinner, Christopher B.

2017-11-01

A set of atmosphere-only timeslice experiments are described, designed to examine the processes that cause regional climate change and inter-model uncertainty in coupled climate model responses to CO_2 forcing. The timeslice experiments are able to reproduce the pattern of regional climate change in the coupled models, and are applied here to two cases where inter-model uncertainty in future projections is large: the tropical hydrological cycle, and European winter circulation. In tropical forest regions, the plant physiological effect is the largest cause of hydrological cycle change in the two models that represent this process. This suggests that the CMIP5 ensemble mean may be underestimating the magnitude of water cycle change in these regions, due to the inclusion of models without the plant effect. SST pattern change is the dominant cause of precipitation and circulation change over the tropical oceans, and also appears to contribute to inter-model uncertainty in precipitation change over tropical land regions. Over Europe and the North Atlantic, uniform SST increases drive a poleward shift of the storm-track. However this does not consistently translate into an overall polewards storm-track shift, due to large circulation responses to SST pattern change, which varies across the models. Coupled model SST biases influence regional rainfall projections in regions such as the Maritime Continent, and so projections in these regions should be treated with caution.

Winter-to-Summer Precipitation Phasing in Southwestern North America: A Multi-Century Perspective from Paleoclimatic Model-Data Comparisons

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coats, Sloan; Smerdon, Jason E.; Seager, Richard; Griffin, Daniel; Cook, Benjamin I.

2015-01-01

The phasing of winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies in the North American monsoon (NAM) region 2 (113.25 deg W-107.75 deg W, 30 deg N-35.25 deg N-NAM2) of southwestern North America is analyzed in fully coupled simulations of the Last Millennium and compared to tree ring reconstructed winter and summer precipitation variability. The models simulate periods with in-phase seasonal precipitation anomalies, but the strength of this relationship is variable on multidecadal time scales, behavior that is also exhibited by the reconstructions. The models, however, are unable to simulate periods with consistently out-of-phase winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies as observed in the latter part of the instrumental interval. The periods with predominantly in-phase winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies in the models are significant against randomness, and while this result is suggestive of a potential for dual-season drought on interannual and longer time scales, models do not consistently exhibit the persistent dual-season drought seen in the dendroclimatic reconstructions. These collective findings indicate that model-derived drought risk assessments may underestimate the potential for dual-season drought in 21st century projections of hydroclimate in the American Southwest and parts of Mexico.

Energy exchange of an alpine grassland on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shang, Lunyu; Zhang, Yu; Lv, Shihua; Wang, Shaoying

2014-05-01

The seasonal variability in the surface energy exchange of an alpine grassland on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau was investigated using eddy covariance measurements. Based on the change of air temperature and the seasonal distribution of precipitation, a winter season and wet season were identified, which were separated by transitional periods. For each period, the surface energy exchange exhibited distinct patterns. Daily mean net radiation (Rn) was almost always positive throughout the year. Sensible heat flux (H) was almost always greater than latent heat flux (LE) during the winter season, and LE was always greater than H during the wet season. Ground heat flux (G0) was relatively low throughout the year. The annual mean net radiation was about 39% of the annual mean solar radiation (Rs). Rn was relatively low during the winter season (21% of Rs) compared to the wet season (55% of Rs), which can be explained by the difference in surface albedo and moisture condition between the two seasons. H and LE had different roles during different periods of the year. Annually, the main consumer of net radiation was LE. During the winter season, H was dominant because of the frozen soil condition and lack of precipitation. During the wet season LE was dominant due to increased temperature and sufficient rainfall coupling with vegetation development. LE was strongly controlled by Rn from June to August though surface conductance (gc) and soil water content (θv) were high. During the transitional periods, H and LE were nearly equally partitioned in the energy balance. The results also suggested that the freeze-thaw condition of soil and the seasonal distribution of precipitation had important impacts on the energy exchange in this alpine grassland.

Statistical-Dynamical Seasonal Forecasts of Central-Southwest Asian Winter Precipitation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tippett, Michael K.; Goddard, Lisa; Barnston, Anthony G.

2005-06-01

Interannual precipitation variability in central-southwest (CSW) Asia has been associated with East Asian jet stream variability and western Pacific tropical convection. However, atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) forced by observed sea surface temperature (SST) poorly simulate the region's interannual precipitation variability. The statistical-dynamical approach uses statistical methods to correct systematic deficiencies in the response of AGCMs to SST forcing. Statistical correction methods linking model-simulated Indo-west Pacific precipitation and observed CSW Asia precipitation result in modest, but statistically significant, cross-validated simulation skill in the northeast part of the domain for the period from 1951 to 1998. The statistical-dynamical method is also applied to recent (winter 1998/99 to 2002/03) multimodel, two-tier December-March precipitation forecasts initiated in October. This period includes 4 yr (winter of 1998/99 to 2001/02) of severe drought. Tercile probability forecasts are produced using ensemble-mean forecasts and forecast error estimates. The statistical-dynamical forecasts show enhanced probability of below-normal precipitation for the four drought years and capture the return to normal conditions in part of the region during the winter of 2002/03.May Kabul be without gold, but not without snow.—Traditional Afghan proverb

Influence of atmospheric rivers on vegetation productivity and fire patterns in the southwestern U.S.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Albano, Christine M.; Dettinger, Michael; Soulard, Christopher E.

2017-01-01

In the southwestern U.S., the meteorological phenomenon known as atmospheric rivers (ARs) has gained increasing attention due to its strong connections to floods, snowpacks, and water supplies in the West Coast states. Relatively less is known about the ecological implications of ARs, particularly in the interior Southwest, where AR storms are less common. To address this gap, we compared a chronology of AR landfalls on the west coast between 1989 and 2011 and between 25°N and 42.5°N to annual metrics of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI; an indicator of vegetation productivity) and daily resolution precipitation data to assess influences of AR-fed winter precipitation on vegetation productivity across the southwestern U.S. We mapped correlations between winter AR precipitation during landfalling ARs and (1) annual maximum NDVI and (2) area burned by large wildfires summarized by ecoregion during the same year as the landfalls and during the following year. Interannual variations of AR precipitation strongly influenced both NDVI and area burned by wildfire in some dryland ecoregions. The influence of ARs on dryland vegetation varied significantly depending on the latitude of landfall, with those ARs making landfall below 35°N latitude more strongly influencing these systems, and with effects observed as far as 1300 km from the landfall location. As climatologists' understanding of the synoptic patterns associated with the occurrence of ARs continues to evolve, an increased understanding of how AR landfalls, in aggregate, influence vegetation productivity and associated wildfire activity in dryland ecosystems may provide opportunities to better predict ecological responses to climate and climate change.

Interannual and low-frequency variability of Upper Indus Basin winter/spring precipitation in observations and CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greene, Arthur M.; Robertson, Andrew W.

2017-12-01

An assessment is made of the ability of general circulation models in the CMIP5 ensemble to reproduce observed modes of low-frequency winter/spring precipitation variability in the region of the Upper Indus basin (UIB) in south-central Asia. This season accounts for about two thirds of annual precipitation totals in the UIB and is characterized by "western disturbances" propagating along the eastward extension of the Mediterranean storm track. Observational data are utilized for for spatiotemporal characterization of the precipitation seasonal cycle, to compute seasonalized spectra and finally, to examine teleconnections, in terms of large-scale patterns in sea-surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation. Annual and lowpassed variations are found to be associated primarily with SST modes in the tropical and extratropical Pacific. A more obscure link to North Atlantic SST, possibly related to the North Atlantic Oscillation, is also noted. An ensemble of 31 CMIP5 models is then similarly assessed, using unforced preindustrial multi-century control runs. Of these models, eight are found to reproduce well the two leading modes of the observed seasonal cycle. This model subset is then assessed in the spectral domain and with respect to teleconnection patterns, where a range of behaviors is noted. Two model families each account for three members of this subset. The degree of within-family similarity in behavior is shown to reflect underlying model differences. The results provide estimates of unforced regional hydroclimate variability over the UIB on interannual and decadal scales and the corresponding far-field influences, and are of potential relevance for the estimation of uncertainties in future water availability.

Influence of atmospheric rivers on vegetation productivity and fire patterns in the southwestern U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albano, Christine M.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Soulard, Christopher E.

2017-02-01

In the southwestern U.S., the meteorological phenomenon known as atmospheric rivers (ARs) has gained increasing attention due to its strong connections to floods, snowpacks, and water supplies in the West Coast states. Relatively less is known about the ecological implications of ARs, particularly in the interior Southwest, where AR storms are less common. To address this gap, we compared a chronology of AR landfalls on the west coast between 1989 and 2011 and between 25°N and 42.5°N to annual metrics of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI; an indicator of vegetation productivity) and daily resolution precipitation data to assess influences of AR-fed winter precipitation on vegetation productivity across the southwestern U.S. We mapped correlations between winter AR precipitation during landfalling ARs and (1) annual maximum NDVI and (2) area burned by large wildfires summarized by ecoregion during the same year as the landfalls and during the following year. Interannual variations of AR precipitation strongly influenced both NDVI and area burned by wildfire in some dryland ecoregions. The influence of ARs on dryland vegetation varied significantly depending on the latitude of landfall, with those ARs making landfall below 35°N latitude more strongly influencing these systems, and with effects observed as far as 1300 km from the landfall location. As climatologists' understanding of the synoptic patterns associated with the occurrence of ARs continues to evolve, an increased understanding of how AR landfalls, in aggregate, influence vegetation productivity and associated wildfire activity in dryland ecosystems may provide opportunities to better predict ecological responses to climate and climate change.

Drastic shifts in the Levant hydroclimate during the last interglacial indicate changes in the tropical climate and winter storm tracks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiro, Y.; Goldstein, S. L.; Kushnir, Y.; Lazar, B.; Stein, M.

2017-12-01

Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e was a warm interglacial with where with significantly varying insolation and hence varied significantly throughout this time suggesting highly variable climate. The ICDP Dead Sea Deep Drilling Project recovered a 460m record of the past 220ka, reflecting the variable climate along MIS 5e. This time interval is reflected by alternating halite and detritus sequences, including 20m of halite-free detritus during the peak insolation at 125 ka. The Dead Sea salt budget indicates that the Levant climate was extremely arid when halite formed, reaching 20% of the present runoff. The halite-free detritus layer reflects increased precipitation to levels similar to present day, assuming similar spatial and temporal rainfall patterns. However, the 234U/238U activity ratio in the lake, reflected by authigenic minerals (aragonite, gypsum and halite), shifts from values of 1.5 (reflecting the Jordan River, the present main water source) down to 1.3 at 125-122ka during the MIS5e insolation peak and 1.0 at 118-116ka. The low 234U/238U reflects increased flash floods and eastern water sources (234U/238U 1.05-1.2) from the drier part of the watershed in the desert belt. The intermediate 234U/238U of 1.3 suggests that the Jordan River, fed from Mediterranean-sourced storm tracks, continued to flow along with an increase in southern and eastern water sources. NCAR CCSM3 climate model runs for 125ka indicate increases in both Summer and Winter precipitation. The drastic decrease to 234U/238U 1.0 occurs during the driest period, indicating a near shutdown of Jordan River flow, and water input only through flash floods and southern and eastern sources. The 120ka climate model runs shows a decrease in Winter and increase in Fall precipitation as a result of an increased precipitation in the tropics. The extreme aridity, associated with increased flooding is similar to patterns expected due to future warming. The increase in aridity is the result of expansion of the desert-belt and increases in southern precipitation and indicates an important link between the tropical and mid-latitude climate.

Extreme mid-winter drought weakens tree hydraulic-carbohydrate systems and slows growth.

PubMed

Earles, J Mason; Stevens, Jens T; Sperling, Or; Orozco, Jessica; North, Malcolm P; Zwieniecki, Maciej A

2018-07-01

Rising temperatures and extended periods of drought compromise tree hydraulic and carbohydrate systems, threatening forest health globally. Despite winter's biological significance to many forests, the effects of warmer and dryer winters on tree hydraulic and carbohydrate status have largely been overlooked. Here we report a sharp and previously unknown decline in stem water content of three conifer species during California's anomalous 2015 mid-winter drought that was followed by dampened spring starch accumulation. Recent precipitation and seasonal vapor pressure deficit (VPD) anomaly, not absolute VPD, best predicted the hydraulic patterns observed. By linking relative water content and hydraulic conductivity (K h ), we estimated that stand-level K h declined by 52% during California's 2015 mid-winter drought, followed by a 50% reduction in spring starch accumulation. Further examination of tree increment records indicated a concurrent decline of growth with rising mid-winter, but not summer, VPD anomaly. Thus, our findings suggest a seasonality to tree hydraulic and carbohydrate declines, with consequences for annual growth rates, raising novel physiological and ecological questions about how rising winter temperatures will affect forest vitality as climate changes. © 2018 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2018 New Phytologist Trust.

Precipitation chemistry along an inland transect on the Olympic Peninsula, Washington

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blew, R.D.; Edmonds, R.L.

1995-03-01

The objective of this study was to examine oceanic influences, seasonal variation, and effect of distance from the ocean on the chemistry of bulk precipitation falling on the Pacific coast of Washington State. Bulk precipitation was collected at Sites 4, 13, 24, and 31 km inland from the Pacific Ocean. Mean electrical conductivity of precipitation ranged from 0.47 to 1.02 mS m{sup -1} and mean pH ranged from 5.3 to 5.6. Annual precipitation increased from 2780 mm at 4 km to approximately 3500 mm at 13 km from the coast and remained constant through 31 km inland. Precipitation was highestmore » in the late fall and winter months and lowest during the summer. Rates of ion deposition had a similar seasonal pattern to that of precipitation. Concentrations of Cl, SO{sub 4}, Mg, Na, and excess Ca (Ca in excess of expected sea salt levels) were highest nearest to the coast and were reflected in higher electrical conductivity in precipitation falling closets to the coast.« less

The influence of atmospheric circulation types on regional patterns of precipitation in Marmara (NW Turkey)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baltacı, H.; Kındap, T.; Ünal, A.; Karaca, M.

2017-02-01

In this study, regional patterns of precipitation in Marmara are described for the first time by means of Ward's hierarchical cluster analysis. Daily values of winter precipitation data based on 19 meteorological stations were used for the period from 1960 to 2012. Five clusters of coherent zones were determined, namely Black Sea-Marmara, Black Sea, Marmara, Thrace, and Aegean sub-regions. To investigate the prevailing atmospheric circulation types (CTs) that cause precipitation occurrence and intensity in these five different rainfall sub-basins, objective Lamb weather type (LWT) methodology was applied to National Centers of Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis of daily mean sea level pressure (MSLP) data. Precipitation occurrence suggested that wet CTs (i.e. N, NE, NW, and C) offer a high chance of precipitation in all sub-regions. For the eastern (western) part of the region, the high probability of rainfall occurrence is shown under the influence of E (SE, S, SW) atmospheric CTs. In terms of precipitation intensity, N and C CTs had the highest positive gradients in all the sub-basins of the Marmara. In addition, although Marmara and Black Sea sub-regions have the highest daily rainfall potential during NE types, high daily rainfall totals are recorded in all sub-regions except the Black Sea during NW types.

Zonal wind indices to reconstruct United States winter precipitation during El Niño

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farnham, D. J.; Steinschneider, S.; Lall, U.

2017-12-01

The highly discussed 2015/16 El Niño event, which many likened to the similarly strong 1997/98 El Niño event, led to precipitation impacts over the continental United States (CONUS) inconsistent with general expectations given past events and model-based forecasts. This presents a challenge for regional water managers and others who use seasonal precipitation forecasts who previously viewed El Niño events as times of enhanced confidence in seasonal water availability and flood risk forecasts. It is therefore useful to understand the extent to which wintertime CONUS precipitation during El Niño events can be explained by seasonal sea surface temperature heating patterns and the extent to which the precipitation is a product of natural variability. In this work, we define two seasonal indices based on the zonal wind field spanning from the eastern Pacific to the western Atlantic over CONUS that can explain El Niño precipitation variation spatially throughout CONUS over 11 historic El Niño events from 1950 to 2016. The indices reconstruct El Niño event wintertime (Jan-Mar) gridded precipitation over CONUS through cross-validated regression much better than the traditional ENSO sea surface temperature indices or other known modes of variability. Lastly, we show strong relationships between sea surface temperature patterns and the phases of the zonal wind indices, which in turn suggests that some of the disparate CONUS precipitation during El Niño events can be explained by different heating patterns. The primary contribution of this work is the identification of intermediate variables (in the form of zonal wind indices) that can facilitate further studies into the distinct hydroclimatic response to specific El Niño events.

Response of aboveground carbon balance to long-term, experimental enhancements in precipitation seasonality is contingent on plant community type in cold-desert rangelands

USGS Publications Warehouse

McAbee, Kathryn; Reinhardt, Keith; Germino, Matthew; Bosworth, Andrew

2017-01-01

Semi-arid rangelands are important carbon (C) pools at global scales. However, the degree of net C storage or release in water-limited systems is a function of precipitation amount and timing, as well as plant community composition. In northern latitudes of western North America, C storage in cold-desert ecosystems could increase with boosts in wintertime precipitation, in which climate models predict, due to increases in wintertime soil water storage that enhance summertime productivity. However, there are few long-term, manipulative field-based studies investigating how rangelands will respond to altered precipitation amount or timing. We measured aboveground C pools and fluxes at leaf, soil, and ecosystem scales over a single growing season in plots that had 200 mm of supplemental precipitation added in either winter or summer for the past 21 years, in shrub- and exotic-bunchgrass-dominated garden plots. At our cold-desert site (298 mm precipitation during the study year), we hypothesized that increased winter precipitation would stimulate the aboveground C uptake and storage relative to ambient conditions, especially in plots containing shrubs. Our hypotheses were generally supported: ecosystem C uptake and long-term biomass accumulation were greater in winter- and summer-irrigated plots compared to control plots in both vegetation communities. However, substantial increases in the aboveground biomass occurred only in winter-irrigated plots that contained shrubs. Our findings suggest that increases in winter precipitation will enhance C storage of this widespread ecosystem, and moreso in shrub- compared to grass-dominated communities.

Response of aboveground carbon balance to long-term, experimental enhancements in precipitation seasonality is contingent on plant community type in cold-desert rangelands.

PubMed

McAbee, Kathryn; Reinhardt, Keith; Germino, Matthew J; Bosworth, Andrew

2017-03-01

Semi-arid rangelands are important carbon (C) pools at global scales. However, the degree of net C storage or release in water-limited systems is a function of precipitation amount and timing, as well as plant community composition. In northern latitudes of western North America, C storage in cold-desert ecosystems could increase with boosts in wintertime precipitation, in which climate models predict, due to increases in wintertime soil water storage that enhance summertime productivity. However, there are few long-term, manipulative field-based studies investigating how rangelands will respond to altered precipitation amount or timing. We measured aboveground C pools and fluxes at leaf, soil, and ecosystem scales over a single growing season in plots that had 200 mm of supplemental precipitation added in either winter or summer for the past 21 years, in shrub- and exotic-bunchgrass-dominated garden plots. At our cold-desert site (298 mm precipitation during the study year), we hypothesized that increased winter precipitation would stimulate the aboveground C uptake and storage relative to ambient conditions, especially in plots containing shrubs. Our hypotheses were generally supported: ecosystem C uptake and long-term biomass accumulation were greater in winter- and summer-irrigated plots compared to control plots in both vegetation communities. However, substantial increases in the aboveground biomass occurred only in winter-irrigated plots that contained shrubs. Our findings suggest that increases in winter precipitation will enhance C storage of this widespread ecosystem, and moreso in shrub- compared to grass-dominated communities.

Study of different atmospheric environments associated to storms development in the Madeira Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Couto, Flavio Tiago do

The study aims to improve the understanding about different atmospheric environments leading to the development of storms associated with heavy precipitation in Madeira Island. For this purpose, four main goals have been considered: 1) To document the synoptic and mesoscale environments associated with heavy precipitation. 2) To characterize surface precipitation patterns that affected the island during some periods of significant accumulated precipitation using numerical modelling. 3) To study the relationship between surface precipitation patterns and mesoscale environments. 4) To highlight how the PhD findings obtained in the first three goals can be translated into an operational forecast context. Concerning the large scale environment, precipitation over the island was favoured by weather systems (e.g, mesoscale convective systems and low pressure systems), as well as by the meridional transport of high amount of moisture from a structure denominated as “Atmospheric River”. The tropical origin of this moisture is underscored, however, their impact on the precipitation in Madeira was not so high during the 10 winter seasons [2002 - 2012] studied. The main factor triggering heavy precipitation events over the island is related to the local orography. The steep terrain favours orographically-induced stationary precipitation over the highlands, although maximum of precipitation at coastal region may be produced by localized blocking effect. These orographic precipitating systems presented different structures, associated with shallow and deep convection. Essentially, the study shows that the combination of airflow dynamics, moist content, and orography is the major mechanism that produces precipitation over the island. These factors together with the event duration act to define the regions of excessive precipitation. Finally, the study highlights two useful points for the operational sector, regarding the meridional water vapour transport and local effects causing significant precipitation over the Island.

An Evaluation of Teleconnections Over the United States in an Ensemble of AMIP Simulations with the MERRA-2 Configuration of the GEOS Atmospheric Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Collow, Allison B. Marquardt; Mahanama, Sarith P.; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Koster, Randal D.; Schubert, Siegfried D.

2017-01-01

The atmospheric general circulation model that is used in NASA's Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2) is evaluated with respect to the relationship between large-scale teleconnection patterns and daily temperature and precipitation over the United States (US) using a ten-member ensemble of simulations, referred to as M2AMIP. A focus is placed on four teleconnection patterns that are known to influence weather and climate in the US: El Nino Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Pacific-North American Pattern. The monthly and seasonal indices associated with the patterns are correlated with daily temperature and precipitation statistics including: (i) monthly mean 2 m temperature and precipitation, (ii) the frequency of extreme temperature events at the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles, and (iii) the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events classified at the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles.Correlations obtained with M2AMIP data and thus the strength of teleconnections in the free-running model are evaluated through comparison against corresponding correlations computed from observations and from MERRA-2. Overall, the strongest teleconnections in all datasets occur during the winter and coincide with the largest agreement between the observations, MERRA-2, and M2AMIP. When M2AMIP does capture the correlation seen in observations, there is a tendency for the spatial extent to be exaggerated. The weakest agreement between the data sources, for all teleconnection patterns, is in the correlation with extreme precipitation; however there are discrepancies between the datasets in the number of days with at least 1 mm of precipitation: M2AMIP has too few days with precipitation in the Northwest and the Northern Great Plains and too many days in the Northeast. In JJA, M2AMIP has too few days with precipitation in the western two-thirds of the country and too many days with precipitation along the east coast.

Highly-seasonal monsoons controlled by Central Asian Eocene epicontinental sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bougeois, Laurie; Tindall, Julia; de Rafélis, Marc; Reichart, Gert-Jan; de Nooijer, Lennart; Dupont-Nivet, Guillaume

2015-04-01

Modern Asian climate is mainly controlled by seasonal reverse winds driven by continent-ocean thermal contrast. This yields monsoon pattern characterized by a strong seasonality in terms of precipitation and temperature and a duality between humidity along southern and eastern Asia and aridity in Central Asia. According to climate models, Asian Monsoons and aridification have been governed by Tibetan plateau uplift, global climate changes and the retreat of a vast epicontinental sea (the Proto-Paratethys sea) that used to cover Eurasia in Eocene times (55 to 34 Myr ago). Evidence for Asian aridification and monsoons a old as Eocene, are emerging from proxy and model data, however, the role of the Proto-Paratethys sea remains to be established by proxy data. By applying a novel infra-annual geochemical multi-proxy methodology on Eocene oyster shells of the Proto-Paratethys sea and comparing results to climate simulations, we show that the Central Asian region was generally arid with high seasonality from hot and arid summers to wetter winters. This high seasonality in Central Asia supports a monsoonal circulation was already established although the climate pattern was significantly different than today. During winter months, a strong influence of the Proto-Paratethys moisture is indicated by enhanced precipitations significantly higher than today. Precipitation probably dwindled because of the subsequent sea retreat as well as the uplift of the Tibetan and Pamir mountains shielding the westerlies. During Eocene summers, the local climate was hotter and more arid than today despite the presence of the Proto Paratethys. This may be explained by warmer Eocene global conditions with a strong anticyclonic Hadley cell descending at Central Asian latitudes (25 to 45 N). urthermore, the Tibetan plateau emerging at this time to the south must have already contributed a stronger Foehn effect during summer months bringing warm and dry air into Central Asia. Proto-Paratethys moisture driven into Asia by the westerlies during winters provides a potential mechanical link between Eocene global climate and Asian aridification through sea level fluctuations.

The Significance of Shifts in Precipitation Patterns: Modelling the Impacts of Climate Change and Glacier Retreat on Extreme Flood Events in Denali National Park, Alaska

PubMed Central

Crossman, Jill; Futter, Martyn N.; Whitehead, Paul G.

2013-01-01

In glacier-fed systems climate change may have various effects over a range of time scales, including increasing river discharge, flood frequency and magnitude. This study uses a combination of empirical monitoring and modelling to project the impacts of climate change on the glacial-fed Middle Fork Toklat River, Denali National Park, Alaska. We use a regional calibration of the model HBV to account for a paucity of long term observed flow data, validating a local application using glacial mass balance data and summer flow records. Two Global Climate Models (HADCM3 and CGCM2) and two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B2) are used to ascertain potential changes in meteorological conditions, river discharge, flood frequency and flood magnitude. Using remote sensing methods this study refines existing estimates of glacial recession rates, finding that since 2000, rates have increased from 24m per year to 68.5m per year, with associated increases in ablation zone ice loss. GCM projections indicate that over the 21st century these rates will increase still further, most extensively under the CGCM2 model, and A2 scenarios. Due to greater winter precipitation and ice and snow accumulation, glaciers release increasing meltwater quantities throughout the 21st century. Despite increases in glacial melt, results indicate that it is predominantly precipitation that affects river discharge. Three of the four IPCC scenarios project increases in flood frequency and magnitude, events which were primarily associated with changing precipitation patterns, rather than extreme temperature increases or meltwater release. Results suggest that although increasing temperatures will significantly increase glacial melt and winter baseflow, meltwater alone does not pose a significant flood hazard to the Toklat River catchment. Projected changes in precipitation are the primary concern, both through changing snow volumes available for melt, and more directly through increasing catchment runoff. PMID:24023925

The significance of shifts in precipitation patterns: modelling the impacts of climate change and glacier retreat on extreme flood events in Denali National Park, Alaska.

PubMed

Crossman, Jill; Futter, Martyn N; Whitehead, Paul G

2013-01-01

In glacier-fed systems climate change may have various effects over a range of time scales, including increasing river discharge, flood frequency and magnitude. This study uses a combination of empirical monitoring and modelling to project the impacts of climate change on the glacial-fed Middle Fork Toklat River, Denali National Park, Alaska. We use a regional calibration of the model HBV to account for a paucity of long term observed flow data, validating a local application using glacial mass balance data and summer flow records. Two Global Climate Models (HADCM3 and CGCM2) and two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B2) are used to ascertain potential changes in meteorological conditions, river discharge, flood frequency and flood magnitude. Using remote sensing methods this study refines existing estimates of glacial recession rates, finding that since 2000, rates have increased from 24 m per year to 68.5m per year, with associated increases in ablation zone ice loss. GCM projections indicate that over the 21(st) century these rates will increase still further, most extensively under the CGCM2 model, and A2 scenarios. Due to greater winter precipitation and ice and snow accumulation, glaciers release increasing meltwater quantities throughout the 21(st) century. Despite increases in glacial melt, results indicate that it is predominantly precipitation that affects river discharge. Three of the four IPCC scenarios project increases in flood frequency and magnitude, events which were primarily associated with changing precipitation patterns, rather than extreme temperature increases or meltwater release. Results suggest that although increasing temperatures will significantly increase glacial melt and winter baseflow, meltwater alone does not pose a significant flood hazard to the Toklat River catchment. Projected changes in precipitation are the primary concern, both through changing snow volumes available for melt, and more directly through increasing catchment runoff.

Seasonal and annual precipitation time series trend analysis in North Carolina, United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Jha, Manoj K.

2014-02-01

The present study performs the spatial and temporal trend analysis of the annual and seasonal time-series of a set of uniformly distributed 249 stations precipitation data across the state of North Carolina, United States over the period of 1950-2009. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test, the Theil-Sen approach (TSA) and the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test were applied to quantify the significance of trend, magnitude of trend, and the trend shift, respectively. Regional (mountain, piedmont and coastal) precipitation trends were also analyzed using the above-mentioned tests. Prior to the application of statistical tests, the pre-whitening technique was used to eliminate the effect of autocorrelation of precipitation data series. The application of the above-mentioned procedures has shown very notable statewide increasing trend for winter and decreasing trend for fall precipitation. Statewide mixed (increasing/decreasing) trend has been detected in annual, spring, and summer precipitation time series. Significant trends (confidence level ≥ 95%) were detected only in 8, 7, 4 and 10 nos. of stations (out of 249 stations) in winter, spring, summer, and fall, respectively. Magnitude of the highest increasing (decreasing) precipitation trend was found about 4 mm/season (- 4.50 mm/season) in fall (summer) season. Annual precipitation trend magnitude varied between - 5.50 mm/year and 9 mm/year. Regional trend analysis found increasing precipitation in mountain and coastal regions in general except during the winter. Piedmont region was found to have increasing trends in summer and fall, but decreasing trend in winter, spring and on an annual basis. The SQMK test on "trend shift analysis" identified a significant shift during 1960 - 70 in most parts of the state. Finally, the comparison between winter (summer) precipitations with the North Atlantic Oscillation (Southern Oscillation) indices concluded that the variability and trend of precipitation can be explained by the Oscillation indices for North Carolina.

A composite study of the MJO influence on the surface air temperature and precipitation over the Continental United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Shuntai; L'Heureux, Michelle; Weaver, Scott; Kumar, Arun

2012-04-01

The influence of the MJO on the continental United States (CONUS) surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation is examined based on 30 years of daily data from 1979-2008. Composites are constructed for each of the eight phases of the Wheeler-Hendon MJO index over 12 overlapping three-month seasons. To ensure that the MJO signal is distinguished from other patterns of climate variability, several steps are taken: (a) only days classified as "MJO events" are used in the composites, (b) statistical significance of associated composites is assessed using a Monte Carlo procedure, and (c) intraseasonal frequencies are matched to the unfiltered data. Composites of other fields are also shown in order to examine how the SAT and precipitation anomalies are associated with large-scale circulations providing a link between the tropics and extratropics. The strongest and most significant MJO effects on SAT are found during the northern winter seasons. When enhanced convection is located over the equatorial Indian Ocean, below-average SAT tends to occur in New England and the Great Lakes region. As enhanced tropical convection shifts over the Maritime continent, above-average SAT appears in the eastern states of the US from Maine to Florida. The MJO influence on precipitation is also significant during northern winter seasons. When enhanced convection is located over the Maritime continent, more precipitation is observed in the central plains of the US. Enhanced precipitation also occurs over the west coast of the US when convective activity is stronger over the Indian Ocean. During the northern summer and fall, the MJO impact on precipitation is mainly significant at lower latitudes, over Mexico and southeastern US.

Sensitivity of intermittent streams to climate variations in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eng, K.

2015-12-01

There is growing interest in the effects of climate change on streamflows because of the potential negative effects on aquatic biota and water supplies. Previous studies of climate controls on flows have primarily focused on perennial streams, and few studies have examined the effect of climate variability on intermittent streams. Our objectives in this study were to (1) identify regions showing similar patterns of intermittency, and (2) evaluate the sensitivity of intermittent streams to historical variability in climate in the United States. This study was carried out at 265 intermittent streams by evaluating: (1) correlations among time series of flow metrics (number of zero-flow events, the average of the central 50% and largest 10% of flows) with precipitation (magnitudes, durations and intensity) and temperature, and (2) decadal changes in the seasonality and long-term trends of these flow metrics. Results identified five distinct seasonal patterns of flow intermittency: fall, fall-to-winter, non-seasonal, summer, and summer-to-winter intermittent streams. In addition, strong associations between the low-flow metrics and historical climate variability were found. However, the lack of trends in historical variations in precipitation results in no significant seasonal shifts or decade-to-decade trends in the low-flow metrics over the period of record (1950 to 2013).

Winter westerly disturbance dynamics and precipitation in the western Himalaya and Karakoram: a wave-tracking approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cannon, Forest; Carvalho, Leila M. V.; Jones, Charles; Norris, Jesse

2016-07-01

Extratropical cyclones, including winter westerly disturbances (WWD) over central Asia, are fundamental features of the atmosphere that maintain energy, momentum, and moisture at global scales while intimately linking large-scale circulation to regional-scale meteorology. Within high mountain Asia, WWD are the primary contributor to regional precipitation during winter. In this work, we present a novel WWD tracking methodology, which provides an inventory of location, timing, intensity, and duration of events, allowing for a comprehensive study of the factors that relate WWD to orographic precipitation, on an individual event basis and in the aggregate. We identify the relationship between the strength of disturbances, the state of the background environment during their propagation, and precipitation totals in the Karakoram/western Himalaya. We observe significant differences in convective and mechanical instability contributions to orographic precipitation as a function of the relationship between the intensity of WWD and the background temperature and moisture fields, which exhibit strong intraseasonal variability. Precipitation is primarily orographically forced during intense WWD with strong cross-barrier winds, while weaker WWD with similar precipitation totals are observed to benefit from enhanced instability due to high moisture content and temperature at low levels, occurring primarily in the late winter/premonsoon. The contribution of these factors is observed to fluctuate on a per-case basis, indicating important influences of intraseasonal oscillations and tropical-extratropical interactions on regional precipitation.

A comparative statistical study of long-term agroclimatic conditions affecting the growth of US winter wheat: Distributions of regional monthly average precipitation on the Great Plains and the state of Maryland and the effect of agroclimatic conditions on yield in the state of Kansas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Welker, J.

1981-01-01

A histogram analysis of average monthly precipitation over 30 and 84 year periods for both Maryland and Kansas was made and the results compared. A second analysis, a statistical assessment of the effect of average monthly precipitation on Kansas winter wheat yield was made. The data sets covered the three periods of 1941-1970, 1887-1970, and 1887-1921. Analyses of the limited data sets used (only the average monthly precipitation and temperature were correlated against yield) indicated that fall precipitation values, especially those of September and October, were more important to winter wheat yield than were spring values, particularly for the period 1941-1970.

Sub-annual paleoenvironmental information evaluated from intensity variations of fluorescent annual layers in a stalagmite from Ryuo-do Cave, Nagasaki Prefecture, western Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sasaki, Hana; Onishi, Yuri; Ishihara, Yoshiro; Yoshimura, Kazuhisa

2017-04-01

Stalagmites can provide various types of paleoenvironmental information such as information on vegetation and climate changes. Fluorescent annual layers formed by humic substances (mainly fulvic acids: FA) in these stalagmites can also provide a time proxy, and a time series on precipitation. Fluorescence intensity patterns in these annual layers can be classified into symmetric, gradually increasing and gradually decreasing types. Onishi et al. (EGU2016) demonstrated the existence of these fluorescence intensity patterns in the annual layers, and their stratigraphic changes, by numerical simulations, and suggested that the patterns could provide paleoenvironmental information at a sub-annual resolution. In this study, we carried out an analysis of fluorescence intensity patterns in the annual layers of a stalagmite from Ryuo-do Cave, Nagasaki Prefecture, western Japan, and also simulated the patterns in the stalagmite, to obtain paleoenvironmental information. Fluorescence intensity patterns in the annual layers are strongly affected by annual variations in FA concentration and precipitation rates of calcite. As the result of simulations of fluorescence intensity patterns, cumulative variations and various types of pattern are reproduced. These differences are depending on time lags between the variation of the FA concentration in the drip waters, and that of the growth rate of the stalagmite. Co-precipitation models of FA are divided into the "Hiatus model" in which FA are preferentially preserved in the stalagmite when its growth rate is relatively low, and the "Partition coefficient (PC) model" in which FA concentrations in the stalagmite increase when the calcite precipitation rate is relatively high. However, various fluorescence intensity patterns in the annual layers could be formed under a combination or either of both of the models. Fluorescence intensity patterns in an annual layer in the stalagmite from Ryuo-do Cave, Nagasaki Prefecture, western Japan vary stratigraphically, and multiple types of fluorescence intensity pattern are observed in the stalagmite. When the co-precipitation of FA is governed by the hiatus model, it is suggested that a gradual increase in the annual layers will result from a large accumulation of calcite after the annual peak in the FA concentration, whereas there will be a gradual decrease if the main growth occurs before the annual peak in FA concentration. However, in the case of the PC model, a gradually increasing type of pattern is formed if the main growth occurs before the annual peak in FA concentration, and a gradually decreasing type is formed if the main growth occurs afterwards. If the annual peak of FA concentration occurs several months after high summer, it is suggested that intervals showing a gradually increasing type were formed in winter, and intervals showing a gradually decreasing type were formed in the early summer, in the case of the hiatus model. In the case of PC model, the seasons are reversed. In the climatic environment around the Ryuo-do Cave, the growth rates of stalagmites are affected by cave air circulation in winter and by rainfall (rainy season) in early summer.

Estimating the Temporal Domain when the Discount of the Net Evaporation Term Affects the Resulting Net Precipitation Pattern in the Moisture Budget Using a 3-D Lagrangian Approach

PubMed Central

Castillo, Rodrigo; Nieto, Raquel; Drumond, Anita; Gimeno, Luis

2014-01-01

The Lagrangian FLEXPART model has been used during the last decade to detect moisture sources that affect the climate in different regions of the world. While most of these studies provided a climatological perspective on the atmospheric branch of the hydrological cycle in terms of precipitation, none assessed the minimum temporal domain for which the climatological approach is valid. The methodology identifies the contribution of humidity to the moisture budget in a region by computing the changes in specific humidity along backward (or forward) trajectories of air masses over a period of ten days beforehand (afterwards), thereby allowing the calculation of monthly, seasonal and annual averages. The current study calculates as an example the climatological seasonal mean and variance of the net precipitation for regions in which precipitation exceeds evaporation (E-P<0) for the North Atlantic moisture source region using different time periods, for winter and summer from 1980 to 2000. The results show that net evaporation (E-P>0) can be discounted after when the integration of E-P is done without affecting the general net precipitation patterns when it is discounted in a monthly or longer time scale. PMID:24893002

Large‐scale heavy precipitation over central Europe and the role of atmospheric cyclone track types

PubMed Central

Lexer, Annemarie; Homann, Markus; Blöschl, Günter

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Precipitation patterns over Europe are largely controlled by atmospheric cyclones embedded in the general circulation of the mid‐latitudes. This study evaluates the climatologic features of precipitation for selected regions in central Europe with respect to cyclone track types for 1959–2015, focusing on large‐scale heavy precipitation. The analysis suggests that each of the cyclone track types is connected to a specific pattern of the upper level atmospheric flow, usually characterized by a major trough located over Europe. A dominant upper level cut‐off low (COL) is found over Europe for strong continental (CON) and van Bebber's type (Vb) cyclones which move from the east and southeast into central Europe. Strong Vb cyclones revealed the longest residence times, mainly due to circular propagation paths. The central European cyclone precipitation climate can largely be explained by seasonal track‐type frequency and cyclone intensity; however, additional factors are needed to explain a secondary precipitation maximum in early autumn. The occurrence of large precipitation totals for track events is strongly related to the track type and the region, with the highest value of 45% of all Vb cyclones connected to heavy precipitation in summer over the Czech Republic and eastern Austria. In western Germany, Atlantic winter cyclones are most relevant for heavy precipitation. The analysis of the top 50 precipitation events revealed an outstanding heavy precipitation period from 2006 to 2011 in the Czech Republic, but no gradual long‐term change. The findings help better understand spatio‐temporal variability of heavy precipitation in the context of floods and may be used for evaluating climate models.

Holocene Climate Variability in the Central North Pacific: An Organic Geochemical Record from Ka'au Crater Swamp, O'ahu, Hawai'i

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Street, J. H.; Beilman, D.; Timmermann, A.; Gaidos, E.; Paytan, A.

2010-12-01

North Pacific climate is known to have varied during the Holocene, with significant “downstream” effects on the regional climate and hydrology of western North America. Evidence from paleoclimatic studies along the northeast Pacific margin hints at several broad-scale regime shifts since the early Holocene, with spatial expressions analogous to those observed during phase shifts of the modern ENSO and PDO, though occurring on much longer (centennial to millennial) timescales. Nonetheless, the timing, magnitude and spatial patterns of Holocene rearrangements in oceanic and atmospheric circulation in the North Pacific remain incompletely defined. The main Hawaiian Islands (19 - 22 °N, 155 - 160 °W) are uniquely situated to “sample” climate variability in the subtropical, central North Pacific. Precipitation in Hawai’i is strongly influenced by the seasonal migration of the Pacific Anticyclone and the associated trade winds, and, during the winter, the frequency and intensity of westerly moisture-bearing storms. On interannual to decadal timescales, basin-wide circulation changes related to ENSO and PDO modulate trade wind strength and the occurrence of winter storm patterns, leading to local variations in precipitation. Terrestrial paleoclimatic records from Hawai’i are rare, but of great potential value to reconstruct aspects of central North Pacific atmospheric circulation during the Holocene, including the influence of the tropical ENSO system. In this study we present initial results from a 4.5 m, ~14 kyr sedimentary sequence recovered from Ka’au Crater Swamp, located near the leeward crest of the Ko’olau range of southeastern O’ahu, in a zone of high precipitation (>330 cm/yr). We utilize carbon and nitrogen elemental abundances (TOC, TN, C/N) and isotopic compositions (δ13C, δ15N) of bulk organic matter and ratios of biomarker compounds to reconstruct changes in vegetation, organic matter sources, and biogeochemical cycling in relation to climatic variables. Variation in elemental abundances and ratios, particularly in the mid-Holocene, suggest a sensitive response to climate. In addition, we evaluate the use of compound-specific hydrogen isotope (δD) measurements on plant leaf-wax compounds extracted from the sediment as a means of reconstructing paleohydrologic conditions and moisture sources to the site. Leaf-wax δD at Ka’au Crater is affected by changes in the isotopic composition precipitation as well as local water balance, both of which respond to variations in trade wind strength and the balance among the several winter circulation patterns.

An evaluation of gravity waves and gravity wave sources in the Southern Hemisphere in a 7 km global climate simulation.

PubMed

Holt, L A; Alexander, M J; Coy, L; Liu, C; Molod, A; Putman, W; Pawson, S

2017-07-01

In this study, gravity waves (GWs) in the high-resolution GEOS-5 Nature Run are first evaluated with respect to satellite and other model results. Southern Hemisphere winter sources of non-orographic GWs in the model are then investigated by linking measures of tropospheric non-orographic gravity wave generation tied to precipitation and frontogenesis with absolute gravity wave momentum flux in the lower stratosphere. Finally, non-orographic GW momentum flux is compared to orographic gravity wave momentum flux and compared to previous estimates. The results show that the global patterns in GW amplitude, horizontal wavelength, and propagation direction are realistic compared to observations. However, as in other global models, the amplitudes are weaker and horizontal wavelengths longer than observed. The global patterns in absolute GW momentum flux also agree well with previous model and observational estimates. The evaluation of model non-orographic GW sources in the Southern Hemisphere winter shows that strong intermittent precipitation (greater than 10 mm h -1 ) is associated with GW momentum flux over the South Pacific, whereas frontogenesis and less intermittent, lower precipitation rates (less than 10 mm h -1 ) are associated with GW momentum flux near 60°S. In the model, orographic GWs contribute almost exclusively to a peak in zonal mean momentum flux between 70 and 75°S, while non-orographic waves dominate at 60°S, and non-orographic GWs contribute a third to a peak in zonal mean momentum flux between 25 and 30°S.

Migratory connectivity of a widely distributed songbird, the American redstart (Setophaga ruticilla)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Norris, D.R.; Marra, P.P.; Bowen, G.J.; Ratcliffe, L.M.; Royle, J. Andrew; Kyser, T.K.; Boulet, Marylene; Norris, D. Ryan

2006-01-01

Determining the degree of connectivity between breeding and wintering populations is critical for understanding the ecology and evolution of migratory systems. We analyzed stable hydrogen isotopic compositions in tail feathers ($Dw) collected from 26 sites in 11 countries throughout the wintering range of the American Redstart (Setophaga ruticilla), a Nearctic- Neotropical migratory passerine bird. Feathers were assumed to have molted on the breeding grounds, and $Dw was used to estimate breeding origin. Values of $Dw were highly correlated with longitude of sampling location, indicating that breeding populations were generally distributed along the east-west axis of the wintering grounds. Within the Caribbean region, Florida, and Bahamas, $Dw values were negatively correlated with winter latitude, which suggests that American Redstarts exhibit a pattern of chain migration in which individuals wintering at northern latitudes are also the most northern breeders. To identify the most probable breeding regions, we used a likelihood-assignment test incorporated with a prior probability of breeding abundance using Bayes?s rule. Expected $D values of feathers from five breeding regions were based on interpolated $D values from a model of continent-wide growing-season $D values in precipitation ($Dp) and were adjusted to account for a discrimination factor between precipitation and feathers. At most wintering locations, breeding assignments were significantly different from expected frequencies based on relative breeding abundance. Birds wintering in eastern and western Mexico had a high probability of breeding in northwest and midwest North America, whereas birds in the Greater and Lesser Antilles were likely to have originated from breeding regions in the northeast and southeast, respectively. Migratory connectivity, such as we report here, implies that the dynamics of breeding and nonbreeding populations may be linked at a regional scale. These results provide a key opportunity for studying the year-round ecology and evolution of spatially connected populations in a migratory species.

Patterns of LGM precipitation in the U.S. Rocky Mountains: results from regional application of a glacier mass/energy balance and flow model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leonard, E. M.; Laabs, B. J.; Refsnider, K. A.; Plummer, M. A.; Jacobsen, R. E.; Wollenberg, J. A.

2010-12-01

Global climate model (GCM) simulations of the last glacial maximum (LGM) in the western United States predict changes in atmospheric circulation and storm tracks that would have resulted in significantly less-than-modern precipitation in the Northwest and northern Rockies, and significantly more-than-modern precipitation in the Southwest and southern Rockies. Model simulations also suggest that late Pleistocene pluvial lakes in the intermontane West may have modified local moisture regimes in areas immediately downwind. In this study, we present results of the application of a coupled energy/mass balance and glacier-flow model (Plummer and Phillips, 2003) to reconstructed paleoglaciers in Rocky Mountains of Utah, New Mexico, Colorado, and Wyoming to assess the changes from modern climate that would have been necessary to sustain each glacier in mass-balance equilibrium at its LGM extent. Results demonstrate that strong west-to-east and north-to-south gradients in LGM precipitation, relative to present, would be required if a uniform LGM temperature depression with respect to modern is assumed across the region. At an assumed 7oC temperature depression, approximately modern precipitation would have been necessary to support LGM glaciation in the Colorado Front Range, significantly less than modern precipitation to support glaciation in the Teton Range, and almost twice modern precipitation to sustain glaciers in the Wasatch and Uinta ranges of Utah and the New Mexico Sangre de Cristo Range. The observed west-to-east (Utah-to-Colorado) LGM moisture gradient is consistent with precipitation enhancement from pluvial Lake Bonneville, decreasing with distance downwind from the lake. The north-to-south (Wyoming-to-New Mexico) LGM moisture gradient is consistent with a southward LGM displacement of the mean winter storm track associated with the winter position of the Pacific Jet Stream across the western U.S. Our analysis of paleoglacier extents in the Rocky Mountain region supports the results of GCM simulations of western U.S. precipitation distribution during the LGM, and suggests that this approach provides a practical means of testing such hypotheses about large-scale paleoclimate patterns. Finally, we note that most GCM results indicate greater LGM temperature depression in the northern and eastern portions of the study region than in its southern and western portions - which would necessitate LGM precipitation differences even greater than those determined based on an assumed uniform temperature depression.

Recent Progresses in Impacts of Indo-Western Pacific Ocean on East Asian Monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jianping

2016-04-01

Some progresses in impacts of Western Pacific Ocean (WPO) on East Asian monsoon and stratosphere climate are reviewed from the following aspects. (1) Impact of the IPOD (a cross-basin dipole pattern of SSTA variability between the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) and North Pacific Ocean) on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM).The IPOD exhibits a considerable correlation with the EASM. In summers with a positive IPOD phase, the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) weakens and shrinks with WPSH ridge moving northwards, which favours an intensified EASM and a decrease in summer rainfall in the Yangtze River valley, and vice versa. (2) TheIndo-Western Pacific convection oscillation (IPCO),which is an out-of-phase fluctuation in convection anomalies between the north Indian Ocean and the western North Pacific region,is closely related to the EASM.Negative IPCO phases, which exhibit an enhanced convection over the north Indian Ocean and a suppressed convection over the western North Pacific, favor a weakened EASM and an increase of summer rainfall in the Yangtze River valley with the joint actions of the stronger than normal Ural and Okhotsk blocking highs and the subtropical western Pacific high, and vice versa.(3) Asymmetric influence of the two types of ENSO on summer rainfall in China. The two types of ENSO have asymmetric impacts on summer rainfall over the Yangtze River Valley. The relation between summer rainfall over this valley and the cold tongue (CT) El Niño is significantly positive, while the relation with the CT La Niña is not significant. The negative phase of the warm pool (WP) ENSO has a significant positive influence, whereas no significant relation with the positive phase. They indicated that this asymmetric response of the EASM is likely to be linked to the different spatial patterns of the two types of ENSO.(4) Linkage between recent winter precipitation increase in the middle-lower Yangtze River valley (MLY) since the late 1970s andwarming in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). A significant wetting trend over the MLY in winter during the three decades since the late 1970s, forming a ''mid-eastChina winter wetting'' pattern, which has become an important feature of precipitation change under the weakening East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). It is found that the increasing TIO SST is the dominant factor responsible for recent increases in precipitation over the MLY. The thermal forcing driven bythe TIO SST warming gives rise to an anomalous cyclonic circulation along the coast of eastern China, which transports more water vapor onto the Chinese mainland, shifts and causes anomalous convergence over the MLY, and generates the increase in precipitation there. As such, the increasing SST in the TIO induces over 80% of the observed wetting trend over the MLY.

Effect of Climate Change on Mediterranean Winter Ranges of Two Migratory Passerines.

PubMed

Tellería, José L; Fernández-López, Javier; Fandos, Guillermo

2016-01-01

We studied the effect of climate change on the distribution of two insectivorous passerines (the meadow pipit Anthus pratensis and the chiffchaff Phylloscopus collybita) in wintering grounds of the Western Mediterranean basin. In this region, precipitation and temperature can affect the distribution of these birds through direct (thermoregulation costs) or indirect effects (primary productivity). Thus, it can be postulated that projected climate changes in the region will affect the extent and suitability of their wintering grounds. We studied pipit and chiffchaff abundance in several hundred localities along a belt crossing Spain and Morocco and assessed the effects of climate and other geographical and habitat predictors on bird distribution. Multivariate analyses reported a positive effect of temperature on the present distribution of the two species, with an additional effect of precipitation on the meadow pipit. These climate variables were used with Maxent to model the occurrence probabilities of species using ring recoveries as presence data. Abundance and occupancy of the two species in the study localities adjusted to the distribution models, with more birds in sectors of high climate suitability. After validation, these models were used to forecast the distribution of climate suitability according to climate projections for 2050-2070 (temperature increase and precipitation reduction). Results show an expansion of climatically suitable sectors into the highlands by the effect of warming on the two species, and a retreat of the meadow pipit from southern sectors related to rain reduction. The predicted patterns show a mean increase in climate suitability for the two species due to the warming of the large highland expanses typical of the western Mediterranean.

Regional patterns of increasing Swiss needle cast impacts on Douglas-fir growth with warming temperatures.

PubMed

Lee, E Henry; Beedlow, Peter A; Waschmann, Ronald S; Tingey, David T; Cline, Steven; Bollman, Michael; Wickham, Charlotte; Carlile, Cailie

2017-12-01

The fungal pathogen, Phaeocryptopus gaeumannii , causing Swiss needle cast (SNC) occurs wherever Douglas-fir is found but disease damage is believed to be limited in the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW) to the Coast Range of Oregon and Washington (Hansen et al., Plant Disease , 2000, 84 , 773; Rosso & Hansen, Phytopathology , 2003, 93 , 790; Shaw, et al., Journal of Forestry , 2011, 109 , 109). However, knowledge remains limited on the history and spatial distribution of SNC impacts in the PNW. We reconstructed the history of SNC impacts on mature Douglas-fir trees based on tree-ring width chronologies from western Oregon. Our findings show that SNC impacts on growth occur wherever Douglas-fir is found and is not limited to the coastal fog zone. The spatiotemporal patterns of growth impact from SNC disease were synchronous across the region, displayed periodicities of 12-40 years, and strongly correlated with winter and summer temperatures and summer precipitation. The primary climatic factor limiting pathogen dynamics varied spatially by location, topography, and elevation. SNC impacts were least severe in the first half of the 20th century when climatic conditions during the warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (1924-1945) were less conducive to pathogen development. At low- to mid-elevations, SNC impacts were most severe in 1984-1986 following several decades of warmer winters and cooler, wetter summers including a high summer precipitation anomaly in 1983. At high elevations on the west slope of the Cascade Range, SNC impacts peaked several years later and were the greatest in the 1990s, a period of warmer winter temperatures. Climate change is predicted to result in warmer winters and will likely continue to increase SNC severity at higher elevations, north along the coast from northern Oregon to British Columbia, and inland where low winter temperatures currently limit growth of the pathogen. Our findings indicate that SNC may become a significant forest health problem in areas of the PNW beyond the coastal fog zone.

Will climate change affect weather types associated with flooding in the Elbe river basin?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nissen, Katrin M.; Pardowitz, Tobias; Ulbrich, Uwe; Nied, Manuela

2013-04-01

This study investigates the effects of anthropogenic climate change on weather types associated with flooding in the Elbe river basin. The study is based on an ensemble of 3 simulations with the ECHAM5 MPIOM coupled model forced with historical and SRES A1B greenhouse gas concentrations. Relevant weather types, occuring in association with recent flood events, are identified in the ERA40 reanalysis data set. The weather types are classified with the SANDRA cluster algorithm. Distributions of tropospheric humidity content, 500 hPa geopotential height and 500 hPa temperature over Europe are taken as input parameters. 8 (out of 40) weather types are found to be associated with flooding events in the Elbe river basin. The majority of these (6) typically occur during winter, while 2 are warm season patterns. Downscaling reveals characteristic precipitation anomalies associated with the individual patterns. The 8 flood relevant weather types are then identified in the ECHAM5 simulations. The effect of climate change on these patterns is investigated by comparing the last 30 years of the previous century to the last 30 years of the 21st century. According to the model the frequency of most patterns will not change. 5 patterns may experience a statistically significant increase in the mean precipitation over the catchment area and 4 patterns an increase in extreme precipitation. Persistence may slightly decrease for 2 patterns and remain unchanged for the others. Overall, this indicates a moderate increase in the risk for Elbe river flooding, related to changes in the weather patterns, in the coming decades.

Exploring a Variable-Resolution Approach for Simulating Regional Climate in the Rocky Mountain Region Using the VR-CESM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Chenglai; Liu, Xiaohong; Lin, Zhaohui; Rhoades, Alan M.; Ullrich, Paul A.; Zarzycki, Colin M.; Lu, Zheng; Rahimi-Esfarjani, Stefan R.

2017-10-01

The reliability of climate simulations and projections, particularly in the regions with complex terrains, is greatly limited by the model resolution. In this study we evaluate the variable-resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) with a high-resolution (0.125°) refinement over the Rocky Mountain region. The VR-CESM results are compared with observations, as well as CESM simulation at a quasi-uniform 1° resolution (UNIF) and Canadian Regional Climate Model version 5 (CRCM5) simulation at a 0.11° resolution. We find that VR-CESM is effective at capturing the observed spatial patterns of temperature, precipitation, and snowpack in the Rocky Mountains with the performance comparable to CRCM5, while UNIF is unable to do so. VR-CESM and CRCM5 simulate better the seasonal variations of precipitation than UNIF, although VR-CESM still overestimates winter precipitation whereas CRCM5 and UNIF underestimate it. All simulations distribute more winter precipitation along the windward (west) flanks of mountain ridges with the greatest overestimation in VR-CESM. VR-CESM simulates much greater snow water equivalent peaks than CRCM5 and UNIF, although the peaks are still 10-40% less than observations. Moreover, the frequency of heavy precipitation events (daily precipitation ≥ 25 mm) in VR-CESM and CRCM5 is comparable to observations, whereas the same events in UNIF are an order of magnitude less frequent. In addition, VR-CESM captures the observed occurrence frequency and seasonal variation of rain-on-snow days and performs better than UNIF and CRCM5. These results demonstrate the VR-CESM's capability in regional climate modeling over the mountainous regions and its promising applications for climate change studies.

Winter precipitation trends for two selected European regions over the last 500 years and their possible dynamical background

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matti, C.; Pauling, A.; Küttel, M.; Wanner, H.

2009-01-01

We analyse winter (DJF) precipitation over the last 500 years on trends using a spatially and temporally highly resolved gridded multi-proxy reconstruction over European land areas. The trends are detected applying trend matrices, and the significance is assessed with the Mann-Kendall-trend test. Results are presented for southwestern Norway and southern Spain/northern Morocco, two regions that show high reconstruction skill over the entire period. The absolute trend values found in the second part of the 20th century are unprecedented over the last 500 years in both regions. During the period 1715-1765, the precipitation trends were most pronounced in southwestern Norway as well as southern Spain/northern Morocco, with first a distinct negative trend followed by a positive countertrend of similar strength. Relating the precipitation time series to variations of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) and the solar irradiance using running correlations revealed a couple of instationarities. Nevertheless, it appears that the NAO is responsible in both regions for most of the significant winter precipitation trends during the earlier centuries as well as during recent decades. Some of the significant winter precipitation trends over southwestern Norway and southern Spain/northern Morocco might be related to changes in the solar irradiance.

Desert shrub responses to experimental modification of precipitation seasonality and soil depth: relationship to the two-layer model and ecohydrological niche

USGS Publications Warehouse

Germino, Matthew J.; Reinhardt, Keith

2013-01-01

1. Ecohydrological niches are important for understanding plant community responses to climate shifts, particularly in dry lands. According to the two-layer hypothesis, selective use of deep-soil water increases growth or persistence of woody species during warm and dry summer periods and thereby contributes to their coexistence with shallow-rooted herbs in dry ecosystems. The resource-pool hypothesis further suggests that shallow-soil water benefits growth of all plants while deep-soil water primarily enhances physiological maintenance and survival of woody species. Few studies have directly tested these by manipulating deep-soil water availability and observing the long-term outcomes. 2. We predicted that factors promoting infiltration and storage of water in deep soils, specifically greater winter precipitation and soil depth, would enhance Artemisia tridentata (big sagebrush) in cold, winter-wet/summer-dry desert. Sagebrush responses to 20 years of winter irrigation were compared to summer- or no irrigation, on plots having relatively deep or shallow soils (2 m vs. 1 m depths). 3. Winter irrigation increased sagebrush cover, and crown and canopy volumes, but not density (individuals/plot) compared to summer or no irrigation, on deep-soil plots. On shallow-soil plots, winter irrigation surprisingly decreased shrub cover and size, and summer irrigation had no effect. Furthermore, multiple regression suggested that the variations in growth were related (i) firstly to water in shallow soils (0-0.2 m) and secondly to deeper soils (> 1 m deep) and (ii) more by springtime than by midsummer soil water. Water-use efficiency increased considerably on shallow soils without irrigation and was lowest with winter irrigation. 4. Synthesis. Sagebrush was more responsive to the seasonal timing of precipitation than to total annual precipitation. Factors that enhanced deep-water storage (deeper soils plus more winter precipitation) led to increases in Artemisia tridentata that were consistent with the two-layer hypothesis, and the contribution of shallow water to growth on these plots was consistent with the resource-pool hypothesis. However, shallow-soil water also had negative effects on sagebrush, suggesting an ecohydrological trade-off not considered in these or related theories. The interaction between precipitation timing and soil depth indicates that increased winter precipitation could lead to a mosaic of increases and decreases in A. tridentata across landscapes having variable soil depth.

Seasonality of Groundwater Recharge in the Basin and Range Province, Western North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neff, K.; Meixner, T.; De La Cruz, L.

2014-12-01

Groundwater recharge is the primary source of aquifer replenishment, an important source of freshwater for human consumption and riparian area sustainability in semi-arid regions. It is critical to understand the current groundwater recharge regimes in groundwater basins throughout the Western U.S. and how those regimes might shift in the face of climate change, land use change and management manipulations that impact the availability and composition of groundwater resources. Watersheds in the Basin and Range Province are characterized by a variable precipitation regime of wet winters, and variable summer precipitation. The horst-graben structure of these basins lends itself to orographic and continental precipitation effects that make mountain block and mountain front recharge critical components of annual recharge. The current assumption is that the relative contributions to groundwater recharge by summer and winter precipitation vary throughout the province, with winter precipitation dominating in the northern parts of the region, and summer monsoonal precipitation playing a more significant role in the south, where the North American Monsoon extends its influence. To test this hypothesis, stable water isotope data of groundwater and precipitation from sites in Sonora, Mexico and the U.S. states of California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Texas were examined to characterize and compare groundwater recharge regimes throughout the region. Preliminary stable water isotope results from the southernmost Rio San Miguel Basin in Sonora, Mexico indicate that groundwater is composed of 64%±14% summer monsoon precipitation, in contrast to more northern basins where winter precipitation is the source of 79-90% of basin groundwater.

Inferring Spatio-temporal Variations in the Risk of Extreme Precipitation in the Western United States from Tree-ring Chronologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinschneider, S.; Ho, M.; Cook, E. R.; Lall, U.

2017-12-01

This work explores how extreme cold-season precipitation dynamics along the west coast of the United States have varied in the past under natural climate variability through an analysis of the moisture anomalies recorded by tree-ring chronologies across the coast and interior of the western U.S. Winters with high total precipitation amounts in the coastal regions are marked by a small number of extreme storms that exhibit distinct spatial patterns of precipitation across the coast and further inland. Building from this observation, this work develops a novel application of dendroclimatic evidence to explore the following questions: a) how is extreme precipitation variability expressed in a network of tree-ring chronologies; b) can this information provide insight on the space-time variability of storm tracks that cause these extreme events; and c) how can the joint variability of extreme precipitation and storm tracks be modeled to develop consistent, multi-centennial reconstructions of both? We use gridded, tree-ring based reconstructions of the summer Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) extending back 500 years within the western U.S. to build and test a novel statistical framework for reconstructing the space-time variability of coastal extreme precipitation and the associated wintertime storm tracks. Within this framework, we (1) identify joint modes of variability of extreme precipitation fields and tree-ring based PDSI reconstructions; (2) relate these modes to previously identified, unique storm track patterns associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs), which are the dominant type of storm that is responsible for extreme precipitation in the region; and (3) determine latitudinal variations of landfalling ARs across the west coast and their relationship to the these joint modes. To our knowledge, this work is the first attempt to leverage information on storm track patterns stored in a network of paleoclimate proxies to improve reconstruction fidelity.

Precipitation variability of the Grand Canyon region, 1893 through 2009, and its implications for studying effects of gullying of Holocene terraces and associated archeological sites in Grand Canyon, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hereford, Richard; Bennett, Glenn E.; Fairley, Helen C.

2014-01-01

A daily precipitation dataset covering a large part of the American Southwest was compiled for online electronic distribution (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2014/1006/). The dataset contains 10.8 million observations spanning January 1893 through January 2009 from 846 weather stations in six states and 13 climate divisions. In addition to processing the data for distribution, water-year totals and other statistical parameters were calculated for each station with more than 2 years of observations. Division-wide total precipitation, expressed as the average deviation from the individual station means of a climate division, shows that the region—including the Grand Canyon, Arizona, area—has been affected by alternating multidecadal episodes of drought and wet conditions. In addition to compiling and analyzing the long-term regional precipitation data, a second dataset consisting of high-temporal-resolution precipitation measurements collected between November 2003 and January 2009 from 10 localities along the Colorado River in Grand Canyon was compiled. An exploratory study of these high-temporal-resolution precipitation measurements suggests that on a daily basis precipitation patterns are generally similar to those at a long-term weather station in the canyon, which in turn resembles the patterns at other long-term stations on the canyon rims; however, precipitation amounts recorded by the individual inner canyon weather stations can vary substantially from station to station. Daily and seasonal rainfall patterns apparent in these data are not random. For example, the inner canyon record, although short and fragmented, reveals three episodes of widespread, heavy precipitation in late summer 2004, early winter 2005, and summer 2007. The 2004 event and several others had sufficient rainfall to initiate potentially pervasive erosion of the late Holocene terraces and related archeological features located along the Colorado River in Grand Canyon.

Inferring Spatio-temporal Variations in the Risk of Extreme Precipitation in the Western United States from Tree-ring Chronologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinschneider, S.; Ho, M.; Cook, E. R.; Lall, U.

2016-12-01

This work explores how extreme cold-season precipitation dynamics along the west coast of the United States have varied in the past under natural climate variability through an analysis of the moisture anomalies recorded by tree-ring chronologies across the coast and interior of the western U.S. Winters with high total precipitation amounts in the coastal regions are marked by a small number of extreme storms that exhibit distinct spatial patterns of precipitation across the coast and further inland. Building from this observation, this work develops a novel application of dendroclimatic evidence to explore the following questions: a) how is extreme precipitation variability expressed in a network of tree-ring chronologies; b) can this information provide insight on the space-time variability of storm tracks that cause these extreme events; and c) how can the joint variability of extreme precipitation and storm tracks be modeled to develop consistent, multi-centennial reconstructions of both? We use gridded, tree-ring based reconstructions of the summer Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) extending back 500 years within the western U.S. to build and test a novel statistical framework for reconstructing the space-time variability of coastal extreme precipitation and the associated wintertime storm tracks. Within this framework, we (1) identify joint modes of variability of extreme precipitation fields and tree-ring based PDSI reconstructions; (2) relate these modes to previously identified, unique storm track patterns associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs), which are the dominant type of storm that is responsible for extreme precipitation in the region; and (3) determine latitudinal variations of landfalling ARs across the west coast and their relationship to the these joint modes. To our knowledge, this work is the first attempt to leverage information on storm track patterns stored in a network of paleoclimate proxies to improve reconstruction fidelity.

Long-term limnological data from the larger lakes of Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Theriot, E.C.; Fritz, S.C.; Gresswell, Robert E.

1997-01-01

Long-term limnological data from the four largest lakes in Yellowstone National Park (Yellowstone, Lewis, Shoshone, Heart) are used to characterize their limnology and patterns of temporal and spatial variability. Heart Lake has distinctively high concentrations of dissolved materials, apparently reflecting high thermal inputs. Shoshone and Lewis lakes have the highest total SiO2 concentrations (averaging over 23.5 mg L-1), apparently as a result of the rhyolitic drainage basins. Within Yellowstone Lake spatial variability is low and ephemeral for most measured variables, except that the Southeast Arm has lower average Na concentrations. Seasonal variation is evident for Secchi transparency, pH, and total-SiO2 and probably reflects seasonal changes in phytoplankton biomass and productivity. Total dissolved solids (TDS) and total-SiO2 generally show a gradual decline from the mid-1970s through mid-1980s, followed by a sharp increase. Ratios of Kjeldahl-N to total-PO4 (KN:TP) suggest that the lakes, especially Shoshone, are often nitrogen limited. Kjeldahl-N is positively correlated with winter precipitation, but TP and total-SiO2 are counterintuitively negatively correlated with precipitation. We speculate that increased winter precipitation, rather than watershed fires, increases N-loading which, in turn, leads to increased demand for TP and total SiO2.

Snowmelt in the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, F.

2016-12-01

Snow accumulation and melting are important hydrological processes in the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Qualification of snow dynamics is helpful for water resources management. In this study, a case study of snow and runoff modeling in a glaciated catchment in south Tibet was firstly conducted and showed that MODIS snow cover data can be successfully used for snow model calibration. Following the method, snow accumulation and melting in the TP was simulated using a distributed degree-day model through zonal calibration. The simulation results showed that the spatial pattern of snowmelt is basically in accordance with that of precipitation with discrepancy mainly introduced by elevation and temperature lapse. During 1979-2010, average annual precipitation and snowmelt in the TP was 394 and 80 mm/yr, respectively, indicating that about 1/5 of the precipitation in the TP supplied the rivers, lakes, and groundwater etc in the form of snowmelt. Seasonal snowmelt accounted for 35%, 37%, 26%, and 2% of the annual gross in spring, summer, fall, and winter, respectively, with net accumulation of snow in fall and winter added to the snowmelt in the following spring and summer. The overall changing trends of annual precipitation and snowmelt in the TP were 4.1 and 0.4 mm/yr, respectively, with the most intensive snowmelt increase of about 3.0 mm/yr in the upstream of Tarim river basin (UTA) but decrease of about -1.4 mm/yr in the upstream of Mekong river basin (UME) due to the interacting impacts of temperature and precipitation. Significant increasing trend of snowmelt in spring shown in the UTA may benefit the local water use for irrigation etc.

Modulation of Winter Precipitation Dynamics Over the Arabian Gulf by ENSO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandeep, S.; Ajayamohan, R. S.

2018-01-01

The Arabian Gulf (Gulf) and the surrounding regions are centers of intense economic activity. The precipitating weather systems that form over the Gulf are important for this predominantly arid region. It is suggested that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences the Middle East precipitation variability through an equatorward shift of the subtropical jet. Here we present compelling evidence to illustrate the role of ENSO in modulating the local dynamics and moisture transport in initiating precipitation during different ENSO phases using satellite and reanalysis data. It is found that the moisture transport from the Red and Arabian Seas toward the Gulf is stronger during El Niño years. The pattern and strength of moisture transport toward the Gulf is weakened during La Niña and neutral years, with most of the transport directed toward the northern Gulf. Using a 120 h back trajectory analysis, it is found that while the air parcels coming toward the Gulf from the Arabian and Red Seas side originate at lower tropospheric levels, the air parcels from the Mediterranean originate at middle and upper tropospheric levels during El Niño years. In contrast, upper tropospheric air parcels originating over the southern Arabian Sea plays a dominant role on Gulf precipitation during La Niña and neutral years. The seasonal mean transients of zonal winds show a robust ENSO signature over the Gulf, indicating a favorable (less favorable) condition for the penetration of midlatitude eddies over the region during El Niño (La Niña) winters.

Spatio-temporal seasonal drought patterns in Europe from 1950 to 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spinoni, Jonathan; Naumann, Gustavo; Vogt, Jürgen

2016-04-01

Drought is one of the natural disasters with severe impacts in Europe, not only in areas which frequently experience water scarcity such as the Mediterranean, but also in temperate or continental climates such as Central and Eastern Europe and even in cold regions such as Scandinavia and Iceland. In this study the spatio-temporal patterns of seasonal meteorological droughts in Europe between 1950 and 2015 are investigated using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Since the focus is on the analysis of seasonal drought trends, indicators were calculated for 3 monthly accumulation periods. The input variables of precipitation and temperature were derived from E-OBS grids (v11-v12) at a spatial resolution of 0.25°x0.25°. Seasonal trends of drought frequency and severity were analyzed for moderate (SPI or SPEI <-1.0) and extreme (SPI or SPEI <-2.0) events during the periods 1950-2015 and 1981-2015. For the moderate events, results of the SPI analysis (precipitation driven) demonstrate a significant tendency towards less frequent and severe droughts in Northern Europe and Russia, especially in winter and spring; oppositely, an increasing trend is visible in Southern Europe, mainly in spring and summer. According to the SPEI analysis (precipitation and temperature driven) Northern Europe shows wetting patterns, while Southern and Eastern Europe show a more remarkable drying tendency, especially in summer and autumn for drought frequency and in every season for drought severity. The evolution towards drier conditions is more relevant from 1981 onwards, both in terms of frequency and severity. This is especially true for Central Europe in spring, for the Mediterranean in summer, and for Eastern Europe in autumn. Extreme events follow similar patterns, but in autumn no spatially coherent trend can be found.

Spatial and temporal variability of organic C and N concentrations and export from 30 boreal rivers induced by land use and climate.

PubMed

Mattsson, Tuija; Kortelainen, Pirkko; Räike, Antti; Lepistö, Ahti; Thomas, David N

2015-03-01

Climate change scenarios for northern boreal regions indicate that there will be increasing temperature and precipitation, and the changes are expected to be larger in winter than in summer. These precipitation and discharge patterns, coupled with shorter ice cover/soil frost periods in the future would be expected to contribute significantly to changing flow paths of organic matter over a range of land use patterns. In order to study the impact of climate change on the seasonality of organic matter export we compared total organic carbon (TOC) and total organic nitrogen (TON) concentrations and export, during different seasons and climatically different years, over 12 years for 30 Finnish rivers separated into forest, agriculture and peat dominated catchments. The mean monthly TOC concentrations were highest during autumn and there was also a peak in May during the highest flow period. The mean monthly concentrations of TON were lowest during winter, increased in spring and remaining high throughout summer and autumn. The TOC/TON ratios were lowest during summer and highest during winter, and in all seasons the ratios were lowest in catchments with a high proportion of agricultural land and highest in peat-dominated catchments. The seasonality of TOC and TON exports reflected geographical location, hydrology and land use patterns. Most of the TOC and TON were transported during the high flow following the spring snowmelt and during rainfall in autumn. In all catchments the relative importance of the spring snowmelt decreased in wet and warm years. However, in peat-dominated catchments the proportion of spring period was over 30% of the annual export even in these wet and warm years, while in other catchments the proportion was about 20%. This might be linked to the northern location of the peat-dominated catchments and the permanent snow cover and spring snowmelt, even in warm years. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence of Precipitation Regime on Microbial Decomposition Patterns in Semi-Arid Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feris, K. P.; Jilek, C.; Huber, D. P.; Reinhardt, K.; deGraaff, M.; Lohse, K.; Germino, M.

2011-12-01

In water-limited semi-arid sagebrush steppe ecosystems predicted changes in climate may manifest as a shift from historically winter/snow-dominated precipitation regimes to one dominated by spring rains. In these ecosystems soil microorganisms play a vital role in linking the effects of water availability and plant productivity to biogeochemical cycling. Patterns of soil microbial catalyzed organic matter decomposition patters (i.e. patterns of extracellular enzyme activity (EEA)) are thought to depend upon the quantity and quality of soil organic matter (SOM), pH, and mean annual precipitation (Sinsabaugh, 2008), and less on the timing and magnitude of precipitation. However, sagebrush-steppe plant communities respond strongly to changes in the timing and magnitude of precipitation, and preliminary findings by our group suggest that corresponding changes in SOM quantity, quality, N-cycle dynamics, and soil structure are occurring. Therefore, we hypothesized: 1) Shifts in the timing and magnitude of precipitation would indirectly affect soil microbial decomposition patterns via responses in the plant community structure; and 2) Changes in precipitation patterns can directly affect soil microbial community structure and function, in effect uncoupling the interaction between plant community structure and soil community structure. We tested our hypotheses by determining the influence of experimentally manipulated timing and magnitude of precipitation on soil microbial EEA using standard flourometric assays in soils sampled under plant canopies and plant interspaces. We assessed this response in a mature (18 + years) ecohydrologic field experiment in eastern Idaho that annually imitates three possible post climatic-shift precipitation regimes (Ambient (AMB): no additional precipitation, ~200mm annually; Summer (SUMM): 200mm provisioned at 50mm bi-weekly starting in June; and Fall/Spring (F/S): 200mm provisioned over 1-2 weeks in October or April) (n=3). Within plant interspaces Beta glucosaminide activity increased by 18% in treatments receiving additional F/S precipitation, whereas alpha glucopyranoside activity was lower in the F/S and SUMM plots. Conversely, underplant canopies alpha glucopyranoside activity increased by 15% in the SUMM and F/S precipitation treatments. Across treatments and sampling types (i.e. plant canopy vs. interspace), cellobioside activity levels are consistently elevated in response to additional precipitation compared to those of the control plots. When coupled with recent preliminary findings by our group regarding changes in plant and microbial community structure and SOM, C-storage, and soil structural responses, these preliminary findings suggest that 1) microbial community structure and function respond both directly and indirectly to changes in climate, and 2) thus provide a mechanism for changes in plant community structure to feed-forward to affect soil carbon decomposition patterns and ultimately soil carbon storage potential.

Changes in precipitating snow chemistry with seasonality in the remote Laohugou glacier basin, western Qilian Mountains.

PubMed

Dong, Zhiwen; Qin, Dahe; Qin, Xiang; Cui, Jianyong; Kang, Shichang

2017-04-01

Trace elements in the atmosphere could provide information about regional atmospheric pollution. This study presented a whole year of precipitation observation data regarding the concentrations of trace metals (e.g., Cr, Ni, Cu, Mn, Cd, Mo, Pb, Sb, Ti, and Zn), and a TEM-EDX (transmission electron microscope-energy dispersive X-ray spectrometer) analysis from June 2014 to September 2015 at a remote alpine glacier basin in Northwest China, the Laohugou (LHG) basin (4200 m a.s.l.), to determine the regional scale of atmospheric conditions and chemical processing in the free troposphere in the region. The results of the concentrations of trace metals showed that, although the concentrations generally were lower compared with that of surrounding rural areas (and cities), they showed an obviously higher concentration and higher EFs in winter (DJF) and a relatively lower concentration and lower EFs in summer (JJA) and autumn (SON), implying clearly enhanced winter pollution of the regional atmosphere in Northwest China. The TEM observed residue in precipitation that was mainly composed of types of dust, salt-dust, BC-fly ash-soot, and organic particles in precipitation, which also showed remarked seasonal change, showing an especially high ratio of BC-soot-fly ash particles in winter precipitation compared with that of other seasons (while organic particles were higher in the summer), indicating significant increased anthropogenic particles in the winter atmosphere. The source of increased winter anthropogenic pollutants mainly originated from emissions from coal combustion, e.g., the regional winter heating supply for residents and cement factories in urban and rural regions of Northwest China. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) atmospheric optical depth (AOD) also showed a significant influence of regional atmospheric pollutant emissions over the region in winter. In total, this work indicated that the atmospheric environment in western Qilian Mountains also showed enhanced anthropogenic pollution in winter, probably mainly caused by regional fossil fuel combustion.

Investigation of Microphysical Parameters within Winter and Summer Type Precipitation Events over Mountainous [Complex] Terrain

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stalker, James R.; Bossert, James E.

1997-12-31

In this study we investigate complex terrain effects on precipitation with RAMS for both in winter and summer cases from a microphysical perspective. We consider a two dimensional east-west topographic cross section in New Mexico representative of the Jemez mountains on the west and the Sangre de Cristo mountains on the east. Located between these two ranges is the Rio Grande Valley. In these two dimensional experiments, variations in DSDs are considered to simulate total precipitation that closely duplicate observed precipitation.

Climate relationships to fecal bacterial densities in Maryland shellfish harvest waters.

PubMed

Leight, A K; Hood, R; Wood, R; Brohawn, K

2016-02-01

Coastal states of the United States (US) routinely monitor shellfish harvest waters for types of bacteria that indicate the potential presence of fecal pollution. The densities of these indicator bacteria in natural waters may be related to climate in several ways, including through runoff from precipitation and survival related to water temperatures. The relationship between interannual precipitation and air temperature patterns and the densities of fecal indicator bacteria in shellfish harvest waters in Maryland's portion of the Chesapeake Bay was quantified using 34 years of data (1979-2013). Annual and seasonal precipitation totals had a strong positive relationship with average fecal coliform levels (R(2) = 0.69) and the proportion of samples with bacterial densities above the FDA regulatory criteria (R(2) = 0.77). Fecal coliform levels were also significantly and negatively related to average annual air temperature (R(2) = -0.43) and the average air temperature of the warmest month (R(2) = -0.57), while average seasonal air temperature was only significantly related to fecal coliform levels in the summer. River and regional fecal coliform levels displayed a wide range of relationships with precipitation and air temperature patterns, with stronger relationships in rural areas and mainstem Bay stations. Fecal coliform levels tended to be higher in years when the bulk of precipitation occurred throughout the summer and/or fall (August to September). Fecal coliform levels often peaked in late fall and winter, with precipitation peaking in summer and early fall. Continental-scale sea level pressure (SLP) analysis revealed an association between atmospheric patterns that influence both extratropical and tropical storm tracks and very high fecal coliform years, while regional precipitation was found to be significantly correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific North American Pattern. These findings indicate that management of shellfish harvest waters should account for changes in climate conditions and that SLP patterns may be particularly important for predicting years with extremely high levels of fecal coliforms. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Mid- to late Holocene climate-driven regime shifts inferred from diatom, ostracod and stable isotope records from Lake Son Kol (Central Tian Shan, Kyrgyzstan)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwarz, Anja; Turner, Falko; Lauterbach, Stefan; Plessen, Birgit; Krahn, Kim J.; Glodniok, Sven; Mischke, Steffen; Stebich, Martina; Witt, Roman; Mingram, Jens; Schwalb, Antje

2017-12-01

Arid Central Asia represents a key region for understanding climate variability and interactions in the Northern Hemisphere. Patterns and mechanisms of Holocene climate change in arid Central Asia are, however, only partially understood. Multi-proxy data combining diatom, ostracod, sedimentological, geochemical and stable isotope analyses from a ca. 6000-year-old lake sediment core from Son Kol (Central Kyrgyzstan) show distinct and repeated changes in species assemblages. Diatom- and ostracod-inferred conductivity shifts between meso-euhaline and freshwater conditions suggest water balance and regime shifts. Organism-derived data are corroborated by stable isotope, mineralogical and geochemical records, underlining that Son Kol was affected by strong lake level fluctuations of several meters. The δ13Ccarb/δ18Ocarb correlation shows repeated switchovers from a closed to an open lake system. From 6000 to 3800 and 3250 to 1950 cal. yr BP, Son Kol was a closed basin lake with higher conductivities, increased nutrient availability and a water level located below the modern outflow. Son Kol became again a hydrologically open lake at 3800 and 1950 cal. yr BP. Comparisons to other local and regional paleoclimate records indicate that these regime shifts were largely controlled by changing intensity and position of the Westerlies and the Siberian Anticyclone that triggered changes in the amount of winter precipitation. A strong influence of the Westerlies ca. 5000-4400, 3800-3250 and since 1950 cal. yr BP enhanced the amount of precipitation during spring, autumn and winter, whereas cold and dry winters prevailed during phases with a strong Siberian Anticyclone and southward shifted Westerlies at ca. 6000-5000, 4400-3800 and 3250-1950 cal. yr BP. Similarities between variations in winter precipitation at Son Kol and records of the predominant NAO-mode further suggest a teleconnection between wet (dry) winter climate in Central Asia and a positive (negative) NAO-mode. Thus, this study identifies climate fluctuations as the main driver for hydrological regime shifts in Son Kol controlling physicochemical conditions and consequently causing abrupt species assemblage changes. This emphasizes the importance of multi-proxy approaches to identify triggers, thresholds and cascades of aquatic ecosystem transformations.

North Atlantic Oscillation influence and weather types associated with winter total and extreme precipitation events in Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Queralt, S.; Hernández, E.; Barriopedro, D.; Gallego, D.; Ribera, P.; Casanova, C.

2009-12-01

An analysis of winter intensity and frequency of precipitation is presented, based on 102 daily precipitation stations over Spain and the Balearic Islands for the 1997-2006 decade. Precipitation stations have been merged in the eight different regions which compose the analyzed area by the use of an EOF analysis. NAO influence on the intensity and frequency of precipitation of each region is described in terms of mean precipitation, mean rain frequency, the number of extreme events, changes in the precipitation distribution and the prevalent synoptic configuration. Results indicate a non-stationary response; NAO signal being more evident in mid-late winter. Strong regional differences in the response to NAO are also found, which vary according to the specific character of the precipitation under analysis. Thus, NAO exerts a clear effect on the intensity of total and extreme precipitation rates in northern and westernmost Spanish regions, whereas the frequency of precipitation is clearly affected by NAO in central and southwestern areas. While the correlation between NAO and precipitation is negative for most of the analyzed area, two regions reveal positive responses to NAO in total precipitation occurrence and intensity for specific months. Further analyses reveal asymmetric responses to opposite phases of NAO in the precipitation distributions of some regions. The complex regional relationship between NAO and precipitation is also revealed through the modulation of the former in the preferred Circulation Weather Types associated to precipitation in each region. This spatially non-homogeneous NAO signal stresses the need of caution when employing Iberian precipitation as a proxy for NAO.

Sources of glacial moisture in Mesoamerica

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bradbury, J.P.

1997-01-01

Paleoclimatic records from Mesoamerica document the interplay between Atlantic and Pacific sources of precipitation during the last glacial stage and Holocene. Today, and throughout much of the Holocene, the entire region receives its principal moisture in the summer from an interaction of easterly trade winds with the equatorial calms. Glacial records from sites east of 95?? W in Guatemala, Florida, northern Venezuela and Colombia record dry conditions before 12 ka, however. West of 95?? W, glacial conditions were moister than in the Holocene. For example, pollen and diatom data show that Lake Pa??tzcuaro in the central Mexican highlands was cool, deep and fresh during this time and fossil pinyon needles in packrat middens in Chihuahua, Sonora, Arizona, and Texas indicate cooler glacial climates with increased winter precipitation. Cold Gulf of Mexico sea-surface temperatures and reduced strength of the equatorial calms can explain arid full and late glacial environments east of 95?? W whereas an intensified pattern of winter, westerly air flow dominated hydrologic balances as far south as 20?? N. Overall cooler temperatures may have increased effective moisture levels during dry summer months in both areas. ?? 1997 INQUA/ Elsevier Science Ltd.

Subalpine tree growth, climate, and increasing CO sub 2 : An assessment of recent growth trends. [Pinus balfouriana; P. murrayana; Juniperus occidentalis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Graumlich, L.J.

1991-02-01

Five tree-ring series from foxtail pine (Pinus balfouriana), lodgepole pine (P. murrayana), and western juniper (Juniperus occidentalis) collected in the Sierra Nevada, California, were analyzed to determine if the temporal and spatial patterns of recent growth were consistent with the hypothesized CO{sub 2}-induced growth enhancement. Specifically, the author addresses the following questions: (1) can growth trends be explained solely in terms of climatic variation; (2) are recent growth trends unusual with respect to long-term growth records While the results offer no support for the hypothesized CO{sub 2} fertilization effect, they do provide insights into the response of subalpine conifers tomore » climatic variation. Response surfaces demonstrate that precipitation during previous winter and temperature during the current summer interact in controlling growth and that the response can be nonlinear. Although maximum growth rates occur under conditions of high winter precipitation and warm summers for all three species, substantial species-to-species variation occurs in the response to these two variables.« less

Evaluation of Hydrometeor Classification for Winter Mixed-Phase Precipitation Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hickman, B.; Troemel, S.; Ryzhkov, A.; Simmer, C.

2016-12-01

Hydrometeor classification algorithms (HCL) typically discriminate radar echoes into several classes including rain (light, medium, heavy), hail, dry snow, wet snow, ice crystals, graupel and rain-hail mixtures. Despite the strength of HCL for precipitation dominated by a single phase - especially warm-season classification - shortcomings exist for mixed-phase precipitation classification. Properly identifying mixed-phase can lead to more accurate precipitation estimates, and better forecasts for aviation weather and ground warnings. Cold season precipitation classification is also highly important due to their potentially high impact on society (e.g. black ice, ice accumulation, snow loads), but due to the varying nature of the hydrometeor - density, dielectric constant, shape - reliable classification via radar alone is not capable. With the addition of thermodynamic information of the atmosphere, either from weather models or sounding data, it has been possible to extend more and more into winter time precipitation events. Yet, inaccuracies still exist in separating more benign (ice pellets) from more the more hazardous (freezing rain) events. We have investigated winter mixed-phase precipitation cases which include freezing rain, ice pellets, and rain-snow transitions from several events in Germany in order to move towards a reliable nowcasting of winter precipitation in hopes to provide faster, more accurate winter time warnings. All events have been confirmed to have the specified precipitation from ground reports. Classification of the events is achieved via a combination of inputs from a bulk microphysics numerical weather prediction model and the German dual-polarimetric C-band radar network, into a 1D spectral bin microphysical model (SBC) which explicitly treats the processes of melting, refreezing, and ice nucleation to predict four near-surface precipitation types: rain, snow, freezing rain, ice pellets, rain/snow mixture, and freezing rain/pellet mixture. Evaluation of the classification is performed by means of disdrometer data, in-situ ground observations, and eye-witness reports from the European Severe Weather Database (ESWD). Additionally, a comparison to an existing radar based HCL is performed as a sanity check and a performance evaluator.

On the functional form of particle number size distributions: influence of particle source and meteorological variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cugerone, Katia; De Michele, Carlo; Ghezzi, Antonio; Gianelle, Vorne; Gilardoni, Stefania

2018-04-01

Particle number size distributions (PNSDs) have been collected periodically in the urban area of Milan, Italy, during 2011 and 2012 in winter and summer months. Moreover, comparable PNSD measurements were carried out in the rural mountain site of Oga-San Colombano (2250 m a.s.l.), Italy, during February 2005 and August 2011. The aerosol data have been measured through the use of optical particle counters in the size range 0.3-25 µm, with a time resolution of 1 min. The comparison of the PNSDs collected in the two sites has been done in terms of total number concentration, showing higher numbers in Milan (often exceeding 103 cm-3 in winter season) compared to Oga-San Colombano (not greater than 2×102 cm-3), as expected. The skewness-kurtosis plane has been used in order to provide a synoptic view, and select the best distribution family describing the empirical PNSD pattern. The four-parameter Johnson system-bounded distribution (called Johnson SB or JSB) has been tested for this aim, due to its great flexibility and ability to assume different shapes. The PNSD pattern has been found to be generally invariant under site and season changes. Nevertheless, several PNSDs belonging to the Milan winter season (generally more than 30 %) clearly deviate from the standard empirical pattern. The seasonal increase in the concentration of primary aerosols due to combustion processes in winter and the influence of weather variables throughout the year, such as precipitation and wind speed, could be considered plausible explanations of PNSD dynamics.

The Hydrologic regime over the last 90 years in the Flumendosa basin, Sardinia: the effect of climate change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cardiff, M. A.; Zhou, Y.; Lim, D.; Bakhos, T.; Hochstetler, D. L.; Barrash, W.; Kitanidis, P. K.

2014-12-01

Dry periods increased in frequency over the Mediterranean climates with dramatic effects on the management of ecosystems, agriculture, and drinking water supplies. In the semi-arid Mediterranean regions, such as Sardinian island, dam reservoirs are key elements of the water resources system, because they accumulate autumn and winter runoff, which is then available for the dry months. In this sense, also the seasonal precipitation distribution and its time and spatial variability can be considered hydrologically important. In the Flumendosa basin (Sardinia), which is characterized by a reservoir system that supplies water to the main city of Sardinia, Cagliari, a drastic runoff reduction has been observed in last thirty years. Using data from 41 rain gauges stations (1922-2007 period) and runoff data at the outlet section, we show that: 1) the annual runoff in the latter part of the 20th century was less than half the historic average rate, 2) while the precipitation over the Flumendosa basin has decreased, but not at such a drastic rate as the discharge, suggesting a marked non-linear response of discharge to precipitation changes. Indeed runoff coefficient anomaly are strictly related to winter precipitation (correlation coefficient of 0.5). Trends in precipitation series, in the number of wet days and temperature were examined using the Mann-Kendall non parametric trend test, showing negative trends (-0.25 in winter for both precipitation and runoff). The relationship between winter precipitation and large scale pressure indices, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), has been also investigated. High correlation between NAO and precipitation and runoff, -0.48 and -0.42 respectively, during the winter season is estimated for the whole basin homogenously, highlighting the large impact of NAO on the hydrologic dynamics of this Sardinian basin located in the east coast of the island.

The Hydrologic regime over the last 90 years in the Flumendosa basin, Sardinia: the effect of climate change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corona, R.; Montaldo, N.; Albertson, J. D.

2015-12-01

Dry periods increased in frequency over the Mediterranean climates with dramatic effects on the management of ecosystems, agriculture, and drinking water supplies. In the semi-arid Mediterranean regions, such as Sardinian island, dam reservoirs are key elements of the water resources system, because they accumulate autumn and winter runoff, which is then available for the dry months. In this sense, also the seasonal precipitation distribution and its time and spatial variability can be considered hydrologically important. In the Flumendosa basin (Sardinia), which is characterized by a reservoir system that supplies water to the main city of Sardinia, Cagliari, a drastic runoff reduction has been observed in last thirty years. Using data from 41 rain gauges stations (1922-2007 period) and runoff data at the outlet section, we show that: 1) the annual runoff in the latter part of the 20th century was less than half the historic average rate, 2) while the precipitation over the Flumendosa basin has decreased, but not at such a drastic rate as the discharge, suggesting a marked non-linear response of discharge to precipitation changes. Indeed runoff coefficient anomaly are strictly related to winter precipitation (correlation coefficient of 0.5). Trends in precipitation series, in the number of wet days and temperature were examined using the Mann-Kendall non parametric trend test, showing negative trends (-0.25 in winter for both precipitation and runoff). The relationship between winter precipitation and large scale pressure indices, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), has been also investigated. High correlation between NAO and precipitation and runoff, -0.48 and -0.42 respectively, during the winter season is estimated for the whole basin homogenously, highlighting the large impact of NAO on the hydrologic dynamics of this Sardinian basin located in the east coast of the island.

Incidence of plague associated with increased winter-spring precipitation in New Mexico.

PubMed

Parmenter, R R; Yadav, E P; Parmenter, C A; Ettestad, P; Gage, K L

1999-11-01

Plague occurs episodically in many parts of the world, and some outbreaks appear to be related to increased abundance of rodents and other mammals that serve as hosts for vector fleas. Climate dynamics may influence the abundance of both fleas and mammals, thereby having an indirect effect on human plague incidence. An understanding of the relationship between climate and plague could be useful in predicting periods of increased risk of plague transmission. In this study, we used correlation analyses of 215 human cases of plague in relation to precipitation records from 1948 to 1996 in areas of New Mexico with history of human plague cases (38 cities, towns, and villages). We conducted analyses using 3 spatial scales: global (El Niño-Southern Oscillation Indices [SOI]); regional (pooled state-wide precipitation averages); and local (precipitation data from weather stations near plague case sites). We found that human plague cases in New Mexico occurred more frequently following winter-spring periods (October to May) with above-average precipitation (mean plague years = 113% of normal rain/ snowfall), resulting in 60% more cases of plague in humans following wet versus dry winter-spring periods. However, we obtained significant results at local level only; regional state-wide precipitation averages and SOI values exhibited no significant correlations to incidence of human plague cases. These results are consistent with our hypothesis of a trophic cascade in which increased winter-spring precipitation enhances small mammal food resource productivity (plants and insects), leading to an increase in the abundance of plague hosts. In addition, moister climate conditions may act to promote flea survival and reproduction, also enhancing plague transmission. Finally, the result that the number of human plague cases in New Mexico was positively associated with higher than normal winter-spring precipitation at a local scale can be used by physicians and public health personnel to identify and predict periods of increased risk of plague transmission to humans.

A New Inter-Hemispheric Teleconnection Increases Predictability of Winter Precipitation in Southwestern US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mamalakis, A.; Yu, J. Y.; Randerson, J. T.; AghaKouchak, A.; Foufoula-Georgiou, E.

2017-12-01

Early and reliable prediction of seasonal precipitation in the southwestern US (SWUS) remains a challenge with significant implications for the economy, water security and ecosystem management of the region. Traditional drivers of winter precipitation in the SWUS have been linked to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), decadal/multidecadal oscillations of the sea surface temperature in northern Pacific and Atlantic oceans, and persistent high-pressure ridges over the Gulf of Alaska. However, ENSO as well as other climate modes exhibit weak statistical relationships with precipitation and low predictability as lead time increases. Grounded on the hypothesis that still undiscovered relationships between large-scale atmosphere-ocean dynamics and SWUS precipitation might exist, here we followed a diagnostic approach by which instead of restricting ourselves to the established teleconnections, we analyzed systematically the correlation of global sea surface temperature (SST) and geopotential height (GPH) with winter precipitation amounts in all climatic divisions in the SWUS, for 1950-2015. Our results show that late-summer persistent SST and GPH anomalies in the subtropical southwestern Pacific are strongly connected with winter precipitation in most climatic divisions, exhibiting higher correlation values than ENSO, and thus increasing the potential for earlier and more accurate precipitation prediction. Cross validation and 30-year running average analysis starting in 1950 suggest an amplification of the detected teleconnections over the past three to four decades. The latter is most likely a result of the reported expansion of the tropics, which has started after the 1980s, and allows SST or GPH variability at lower latitudes to affect the meridional atmospheric circulation. Our work highlights the need to understand the dynamic nature of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system in a changing climate for improving future predictions of regional precipitation.

Climate impacts of the NAO are sensitive to how the NAO is defined

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pokorná, Lucie; Huth, Radan

2015-02-01

We analyze the sensitivity of the effects the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) exerts on surface temperature and precipitation in Europe to the definition of the NAO index. Seven different NAO indices are examined: two based on station sea level pressure (SLP) data, two based on action centers, and three based on correlation/covariance structures described by principal component analysis (PCA). The analysis is based on monthly mean data; winter and summer seasons are analyzed separately. Temporal correlations between indices are weaker in summer than in winter for most pairs of indices. In particular, low correlations are found between station indices on the one hand and PCA-based indices on the other hand. The NAO effects are quantified by correlations between the indices and station data in Europe. Effects of the NAO on precipitation amount and wet day probability are very similar, while NAO effects on maximum temperature are stronger than those on minimum temperature. The sensitivity of the NAO effects on both surface temperature and precipitation to the choice of the NAO index is considerably higher in summer. Correlations differ among the NAO indices not only in their magnitude but in some regions in summer also in their sign. These effects can be explained by a northward shift of the whole NAO pattern and its action centers in summer, away from the sites on which the station indices are based, and by a decoupling of the Azores high and Icelandic low from the centers of high covariability, identified by PCA. Considerable differences in SLP anomaly patterns associated to individual NAO indices also contribute to different responses in temperature and precipitation. Finally, we formulate two recommendations to future analyses of NAO effects on surface climate: use several different NAO indices instead of a single one, and for summer do not use station indices because they do not represent the circulation variability related to the NAO.

Developing quantitative criteria to evaluate AOGCMs for application to regional climate assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayhoe, K.; Wake, C.; Bradbury, J.; Degaetano, A.; Hertel, A.

2006-12-01

Climate projections are the foundation for regional assessments of potential climate impacts. However, the soundness of regional assessments depends on the ability of global climate models to reproduce key processes responsible for regional climate trends. Here, we develop a systematic method to compare observed climate with historical atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations, to assess the degree to which AOGCMs are able to reproduce regional circulation patterns. Applying this methodology to the U.S. Northeast (NE), we find that nearly all AOGCMs simulate a reasonable winter NAO pattern and seasonal positions of the Jet Stream and the East Coast Trough. However, not all models capture observed correlations between these circulation patterns and seasonal climate anomalies in the NE. Using only those AOGCMs that meet the criteria in each of these areas, we then develop projections of future climate change in the NE. The primary changes projected to occur over the next century - slightly greater temperature increases in summer than winter, and increases in winter precipitation - are consistent with projected trends in regional climate processes and are relatively independent of model or scale. These suggest confidence in the direction and potential range of the most notable regional climate trends, with the absolute magnitude of change depending on both the sensitivity of the climate system to human forcing as well as on human emissions over coming decades.

How will precipitation change in extratropical cyclones as the planet warms? Insights from a large initial condition climate model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yettella, Vineel; Kay, Jennifer E.

2017-09-01

The extratropical precipitation response to global warming is investigated within a 30-member initial condition climate model ensemble. As in observations, modeled cyclonic precipitation contributes a large fraction of extratropical precipitation, especially over the ocean and in the winter hemisphere. When compared to present day, the ensemble projects increased cyclone-associated precipitation under twenty-first century business-as-usual greenhouse gas forcing. While the cyclone-associated precipitation response is weaker in the near-future (2016-2035) than in the far-future (2081-2100), both future periods have similar patterns of response. Though cyclone frequency changes are important regionally, most of the increased cyclone-associated precipitation results from increased within-cyclone precipitation. Consistent with this result, cyclone-centric composites show statistically significant precipitation increases in all cyclone sectors. Decomposition into thermodynamic (mean cyclone water vapor path) and dynamic (mean cyclone wind speed) contributions shows that thermodynamics explains 92 and 95% of the near-future and far-future within-cyclone precipitation increases respectively. Surprisingly, the influence of dynamics on future cyclonic precipitation changes is negligible. In addition, the forced response exceeds internal variability in both future time periods. Overall, this work suggests that future cyclonic precipitation changes will result primarily from increased moisture availability in a warmer world, with secondary contributions from changes in cyclone frequency and cyclone dynamics.

A multiproxy reconstruction of NAO evolution in the Azores archipelago since 1350 AD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernández, Armand; Doolittle, Sara; Bao, Roberto; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Rubio-Inglés, Maria J.; Sánchez-López, Guiomar; Vázquez-Loureiro, David; Gonçalves, Vitor; Raposeiro, Pedro M.; Marques, Helena S.; Sáez, Alberto; Giralt, Santiago

2014-05-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the main atmospheric circulation pattern affecting climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere, having a major impact on both marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Instrumental records of the NAO are relatively short, and therefore paleoenvironmental multiproxy approaches become fundamental to better understand its behaviour for longer scale periods. The NAO is often defined as a large-scale meridional oscillation dipole of air pressure between the Azores High and the Iceland Low. Some of the NAO definitions include the use of sea level pressure from Ponta Delgada station in Azores, and thus any NAO reconstruction would gain in robustness if it includes paleoenvironmental information from this archipelago located at the southern end of the meridional dipole that characterizes the NAO pattern. However, to the best of our knowledge, very few historical and long-term reconstructions have been conducted in the Azores Islands. We present a ca. 600-year-long multiproxy reconstruction of the NAO evolution based on facies analysis, X-ray diffraction (XRD), X-ray fluorescence (XRF) core scanning, elemental and isotope geochemistry on bulk organic matter and the preliminary study of diatom and chironomid content from the sedimentary record of Lake Empadadas (37° 49' N - 25° 44' W, Azores Archipelago, Portugal). The precipitation regime in Azores Archipelago (i.e. intra and inter-annual variability) is clearly influenced by the NAO index, thus periods with dominant positive NAO index values (NAO+) are usually characterized by low winter precipitation in the Azores. Conversely, negative NAO phases (NAO-) induce high winter precipitation in the archipelago. These patterns suggest that past (winter) precipitation changes on the Azores may be partially used as a proxy for NAO changes, and thus a proxy for more large-scale changes in the North Atlantic region. According to this multiproxy characterization of the Lake Empadadas sediments four main climatic (and NAO) stages since 600 cal years BP have been established. The first stage (1350-1460 AD) correspond to dark-brown to black mud facies with high values in lake productivity and moderately shallow waters, which however represent the deepest condition during the studied interval. Mineralogical composition and high organic matter content also suggest a humid climate with abundant precipitations that might be related to a predominantly NAO- phase. The second stage, spanning between 1460 and 1800 AD, is represented by a similar facies presented by the previous phase. This stage is however characterized by a transitional period from a wet to more arid climate, probably related to a change in NAO conditions (from NAO- to NAO+), with lower values of lake productivity and lake level than the previous stage. From 1800 AD until 1930 AD (third stage) banded brown to pale-brown silty and muddy facies were deposited. During this stage the lowest lake water table and productivity in the whole sequence were reached suggesting a predominantly NAO+ phase in concordance with instrumental NAO records. However, heavy rainfall catastrophic events are recorded in the sequence as very coarse (gravely) alluvial intervals that may be related with intense NAO- negative winters or alternatively to autumn Tropical Storms that can reach the archipelago. Finally, the uppermost interval of the sequence is composed by brown to ochre massive mud. A lake level rise and a progressive increase in the productivity suggest a relatively humid fourth stage from AD 1930 until present, a period characterized with more NAO- values.

The role of declining summer sea ice extent in increasing Arctic winter precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamman, J.; Roberts, A.; Cassano, J. J.; Nijssen, B.

2016-12-01

In the past three decades, the Arctic has experienced large declines in summer sea ice cover, permafrost extent, and spring snow cover, and increases in winter precipitation. This study explores the relationship between declining Arctic sea ice extent (IE) and winter precipitation (WP) across the Arctic land masses. The first part of this presentation presents the observed relationship between IE and WP. Using satellite estimates of IE and WP data based on a combination of in-situ observations and global reanalyses, we show that WP is negatively correlated with summer IE and that this relationship is strongest before the year 2000. After 2000, around the time IE minima began to decline most rapidly, the relationship between IE and WP degenerates. This indicates that other processes are driving changes in IE and WP. We hypothesize that positive anomalies in poleward moisture transport have historically driven anomalously low IE and high WP, and that since the significant decline in IE, moisture divergence from the central Arctic has been a larger contributor to WP over land. To better understand the physical mechanisms driving the observed changes in the Arctic climate system and the sensitivity of the Arctic climate system to declining sea ice, we have used the fully-coupled Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) to simulate two distinct sea ice climates. The first climate represents normal IE, while the second includes reduced summer IE. The second portion of this presentation analyzes these two RASM simulations, in conjunction with our observation-based analysis, to understand the coupled relationship between poleward moisture transport, IE, evaporation from the Arctic Ocean, and precipitation. We will present the RASM-simulated Arctic water budget and demonstrate the role of IE in driving WP anomalies. Finally, a spatial correlation analysis identifies characteristic patterns in IE, ocean evaporation, and polar cap convergence that contribute to anomalies in WP.

Ecohydrology and biogeochemistry of seasonally-dry ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, X.; Porporato, A. M.

2010-12-01

The composition and the dynamic in various types of seasonally dry ecosystems are largely determined by rainfall seasonality and distribution. The intermittency of rainfall in these ecosystems has played a dominant role in the life cycle of native plants such that phenological events such as growth or reproduction have oftentimes become synchronized with the onset of the dry or the wet season. Characteristic amongst such types of ecosystems are the tropical dry and Mediterranean ecosystems, both of which receive similar amount of precipitation yet are markedly distinct in their synchronization of rainfall fluctuations and temperature. Seasonally dry ecosystems cover more than 16 million square kilometers in the tropics, with short but intense wet seasons followed by long dry seasons and elevated temperature throughout the year. Native vegetation grows during the wet season and adopts dormancy or seasonal deciduousness to cope with the dry season. In the Mediterranean climates, precipitations and temperature are out of phase, with wet temperate winters and hot dry summers. Dimorphic root systems are prevalent, where deep rooted plants exploit the winter recharge while the shallow rooted species take advantage of the infrequent summer rains. Using a stochastic soil moisture model we analyze how temporal shifts, or the lack thereof, in temperature and precipitation patterns affect the development of water stress during the dry season and its feedbacks on soil-plant biogeochemistry. We especially focus on the role of differences in temperature and seasonal potential evapotranspiration between tropical dry and Mediterranean climates. We also compare irrigation needs and the effects of projected climatic conditions in those regions. Understanding how plants adopt different water use strategies in the context of shifted climatic patterns will shed light on how these regions of high biodiversity may cope with rapidly-changing climatic conditions.

Long-term variability in Northern Hemisphere snow cover and associations with warmer winters

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, Gregory J.; Wolock, David M.

2010-01-01

A monthly snow accumulation and melt model is used with gridded monthly temperature and precipitation data for the Northern Hemisphere to generate time series of March snow-covered area (SCA) for the period 1905 through 2002. The time series of estimated SCA for March is verified by comparison with previously published time series of SCA for the Northern Hemisphere. The time series of estimated Northern Hemisphere March SCA shows a substantial decrease since about 1970, and this decrease corresponds to an increase in mean winter Northern Hemisphere temperature. The increase in winter temperature has caused a decrease in the fraction of precipitation that occurs as snow and an increase in snowmelt for some parts of the Northern Hemisphere, particularly the mid-latitudes, thus reducing snow packs and March SCA. In addition, the increase in winter temperature and the decreases in SCA appear to be associated with a contraction of the circumpolar vortex and a poleward movement of storm tracks, resulting in decreased precipitation (and snow) in the low- to mid-latitudes and an increase in precipitation (and snow) in high latitudes. If Northern Hemisphere winter temperatures continue to warm as they have since the 1970s, then March SCA will likely continue to decrease.

Long-term variability in Northern Hemisphere snow cover and associations with warmer winters

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Wolock, D.M.

2010-01-01

A monthly snow accumulation and melt model is used with gridded monthly temperature and precipitation data for the Northern Hemisphere to generate time series of March snow-covered area (SCA) for the period 1905 through 2002. The time series of estimated SCA for March is verified by comparison with previously published time series of SCA for the Northern Hemisphere. The time series of estimated Northern Hemisphere March SCA shows a substantial decrease since about 1970, and this decrease corresponds to an increase in mean winter Northern Hemisphere temperature. The increase in winter temperature has caused a decrease in the fraction of precipitation that occurs as snow and an increase in snowmelt for some parts of the Northern Hemisphere, particularly the mid-latitudes, thus reducing snow packs and March SCA. In addition, the increase in winter temperature and the decreases in SCA appear to be associated with a contraction of the circumpolar vortex and a poleward movement of storm tracks, resulting in decreased precipitation (and snow) in the low- to mid-latitudes and an increase in precipitation (and snow) in high latitudes. If Northern Hemisphere winter temperatures continue to warm as they have since the 1970s, then March SCA will likely continue to decrease. ?? 2009 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Predictability of CFSv2 in the tropical Indo-Pacific region, at daily and subseasonal time scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishnamurthy, V.

2018-06-01

The predictability of a coupled climate model is evaluated at daily and intraseasonal time scales in the tropical Indo-Pacific region during boreal summer and winter. This study has assessed the daily retrospective forecasts of the Climate Forecast System version 2 from the National Centers of Environmental Prediction for the period 1982-2010. The growth of errors in the forecasts of daily precipitation, monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (MISO) and the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is studied. The seasonal cycle of the daily climatology of precipitation is reasonably well predicted except for the underestimation during the peak of summer. The anomalies follow the typical pattern of error growth in nonlinear systems and show no difference between summer and winter. The initial errors in all the cases are found to be in the nonlinear phase of the error growth. The doubling time of small errors is estimated by applying Lorenz error formula. For summer and winter, the doubling time of the forecast errors is in the range of 4-7 and 5-14 days while the doubling time of the predictability errors is 6-8 and 8-14 days, respectively. The doubling time in MISO during the summer and MJO during the winter is in the range of 12-14 days, indicating higher predictability and providing optimism for long-range prediction. There is no significant difference in the growth of forecasts errors originating from different phases of MISO and MJO, although the prediction of the active phase seems to be slightly better.

Winter precipitation changes during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age in arid Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fohlmeister, Jens; Plessen, Birgit; Dudashvili, Alexey Sergeevich; Tjallingii, Rik; Wolff, Christian; Gafurov, Abror; Cheng, Hai

2017-12-01

The strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is considered to be the main driver of climate changes over the European and western Asian continents throughout the last millennium. For example, the predominantly warm Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the following cold period of the Little Ice Age (LIA) over Europe have been associated with long-lasting phases with a positive and negative NAO index. Its climatic imprint is especially pronounced in European winter seasons. However, little is known about the influence of NAO with respect to its eastern extent over the Eurasian continent. Here we present speleothem records (δ13C, δ18O and Sr/Ca) from the southern rim of Fergana Basin (Central Asia) revealing annually resolved past climate variations during the last millennium. The age control of the stalagmite relies on radiocarbon dating as large amounts of detrital material inhibit accurate 230Th dating. Present-day calcification of the stalagmite is most effective during spring when the cave atmosphere and elevated water supply by snow melting and high amount of spring precipitation provide optimal conditions. Seasonal precipitation variations cause changes of the stable isotope and Sr/Ca compositions. The simultaneous changes in these geochemical proxies, however, give also evidence for fractionation processes in the cave. By disentangling both processes, we demonstrate that the amount of winter precipitation during the MCA was generally higher than during the LIA, which is in line with climatic changes linked to the NAO index but opposite to the higher mountain records of Central Asia. Several events of strongly reduced winter precipitation are observed during the LIA in Central Asia. These dry winter events can be related to phases of a strong negative NAO index and all results reveal that winter precipitation over the central Eurasian continent is tightly linked to atmospheric NAO modes by the westerly wind systems.

Enhancing our Understanding of Snowfall Modes with Ground-Based Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pettersen, C.; Kulie, M.; Petersen, W. A.; Bliven, L. F.; Wood, N.

2016-12-01

Snowfall can be broadly categorized into deep and shallow events based on the vertical distribution of the precipitating ice. Remotely sensed data refine these precipitation categories and aid in discerning the underlying macro- and microphysical mechanisms. The unique patterns in the remotely sensed instruments observations can potentially connect distinct modes of snowfall to specific processes. Though satellites can observe and recognize these patterns in snowfall, these measurements are limited - particularly in cases of shallow and light precipitation, as the snow may be too close to the surface or below the detection limits of the instrumentation. By enhancing satellite measurements with ground-based instrumentation, whether with limited-term field campaigns or long-term strategic sites, we can further our understanding and assumptions about different snowfall modes and how they are measured from spaceborne instruments. Presented are three years of data from a ground-based instrument suite consisting of a MicroRain Radar (MRR; optimized for snow events) and a Precipitation Imaging Package (PIP). These instruments are located at the Marquette, Michigan National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office to: a) use coincident meteorological measurements and observations to enhance our understanding of the thermodynamic drivers and b) showcase these instruments in an operational setting to enhance forecasts of shallow snow events. Three winters of MRR and PIP measurements are partitioned, based on meteorological surface observations, into two-dimensional histograms of reflectivity and particle size distribution data. These statistics improve our interpretation of deep versus shallow precipitation. Additionally, these statistical techniques are applied to similar datasets from Global Precipitation Measurement field campaigns for further insight into cloud and precipitation macro- and microphysical processes.

The Use of Oceanic Indices Variations Due to Climate Change to Predict Annual Discharge Variations in Northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berton, R.; Shaw, S. B.; Chandler, D. G.; Driscoll, C. T.

2014-12-01

Climatic change affects streamflow in watersheds with winter snowpack and an annual snowmelt hydrograph. In the northeastern US, changes in streamflow are driven by both the advanced timing of snowmelt and increasing summer precipitation. Projections of climate for the region in the 21st century is for warmer winters and wetter summers. Water planners need to understand future changes in flow metrics to determine if the current water resources are capable of fulfilling future demands or adapting to future changes in climate. The study of teleconnection patterns between oceanic indices variations and hydrologic variables may help improve the understanding of future water resources conditions in a watershed. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the correlation between oceanic indices and discharge variations in the Merrimack Watershed. The Merrimack Watershed is the fourth largest basin in New England which drains much of New Hampshire and northeastern portions of Massachusetts, USA. Variations in sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP) are defined by the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), respectively. We hypothesize that temporal changes in discharge are related to AMO and NAO variations since precipitation and discharge are highly correlated in the Merrimack. The Merrimack Watershed consists of undisturbed (reference) catchments and disturbed (developed) basins with long stream gauge records (> 100 years). Developed basins provide an opportunity to evaluate the impacts of river regulation and land development on teleconnection patterns as well as changing climate. Time series of AMO and NAO indices over the past 150 years along with Merrimack annual precipitation and discharge time series have shown a 1 to 2-year watershed hydrologic memory; higher correlation between Merrimack‎ annual precipitation and discharge with AMO and NAO are observed when a 1 to 2-year lag is given to AMO and NAO indices. For instance, the mean correlation of AMO with precipitation/discharge for a zero-year lag was 0.16/0.09 and increased to 0.26/0.23 for a 1-year lag. Our study provides an insight on the lagged hydrologic response of reference catchments and developed basins to variations in oceanic indices.

The role of irrigation runoff and winter rainfall on dissolved organic carbon loads in an agricultural watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oh, Neung-Hwan; Pellerin, Brian A.; Bachand, Philip A.M.; Hernes, Peter J.; Bachand, Sandra M.; Ohara, Noriaki; Kavvas, M. Levent; Bergamaschi, Brian A.; Horwath, William R.

2013-01-01

We investigated the role of land use/land cover and agriculture practices on stream dissolved organic carbon (DOC) dynamics in the Willow Slough watershed (WSW) from 2006 to 2008. The 415 km2watershed in the northern Central Valley, California is covered by 31% of native vegetation and the remaining 69% of agricultural fields (primarily alfalfa, tomatoes, and rice). Stream discharge and weekly DOC concentrations were measured at eight nested subwatersheds to estimate the DOC loads and yields (loads/area) using the USGS developed stream load estimation model, LOADEST. Stream DOC concentrations peaked at 18.9 mg L−1 during summer irrigation in the subwatershed with the highest percentage of agricultural land use, demonstrating the strong influence of agricultural activities on summer DOC dynamics. These high concentrations contributed to DOC yields increasing up to 1.29 g m−2 during the 6 month period of intensive agricultural activity. The high DOC yields from the most agricultural subwatershed during the summer irrigation period was similar throughout the study, suggesting that summer DOC loads from irrigation runoff would not change significantly in the absence of major changes in crops or irrigation practices. In contrast, annual DOC yields varied from 0.89 to 1.68 g m−2 yr−1 for the most agricultural watershed due to differences in winter precipitation. This suggests that variability in the annual DOC yields will be largely determined by the winter precipitation, which can vary significantly from year to year. Changes in precipitation patterns and intensities as well as agricultural practices have potential to considerably alter the DOC dynamics.

Effect of Climate Change on Mediterranean Winter Ranges of Two Migratory Passerines

PubMed Central

Tellería, José L.; Fernández-López, Javier; Fandos, Guillermo

2016-01-01

We studied the effect of climate change on the distribution of two insectivorous passerines (the meadow pipit Anthus pratensis and the chiffchaff Phylloscopus collybita) in wintering grounds of the Western Mediterranean basin. In this region, precipitation and temperature can affect the distribution of these birds through direct (thermoregulation costs) or indirect effects (primary productivity). Thus, it can be postulated that projected climate changes in the region will affect the extent and suitability of their wintering grounds. We studied pipit and chiffchaff abundance in several hundred localities along a belt crossing Spain and Morocco and assessed the effects of climate and other geographical and habitat predictors on bird distribution. Multivariate analyses reported a positive effect of temperature on the present distribution of the two species, with an additional effect of precipitation on the meadow pipit. These climate variables were used with Maxent to model the occurrence probabilities of species using ring recoveries as presence data. Abundance and occupancy of the two species in the study localities adjusted to the distribution models, with more birds in sectors of high climate suitability. After validation, these models were used to forecast the distribution of climate suitability according to climate projections for 2050–2070 (temperature increase and precipitation reduction). Results show an expansion of climatically suitable sectors into the highlands by the effect of warming on the two species, and a retreat of the meadow pipit from southern sectors related to rain reduction. The predicted patterns show a mean increase in climate suitability for the two species due to the warming of the large highland expanses typical of the western Mediterranean. PMID:26761791

Characterizing hydroclimatic variability in tributaries of the Upper Colorado River Basin—WY1911-2001

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matter, Margaret A.; Garcia, Luis A.; Fontane, Darrell G.; Bledsoe, Brian

2010-01-01

SummaryMountain snowpack is the main source of water in the semi-arid Colorado River Basin (CRB), and while the demands for water are increasing, competing and often conflicting, the supply is limited and has become increasingly variable over the 20th Century. Greater variability is believed to contribute to lower accuracy in water supply forecasts, plus greater variability violates the assumption of stationarity, a fundamental assumption of many methods used in water resources engineering planning, design and management. Thus, it is essential to understand the underpinnings of hydroclimatic variability in order to accurately predict effects of climate changes and effectively meet future water supply challenges. A new methodology was applied to characterized time series of temperature, precipitation, and streamflow (i.e., historic and reconstructed undepleted flows) according to the three climate regimes that occurred in CRB during the 20th Century. Results for two tributaries in the Upper CRB show that hydroclimatic variability is more deterministic than previously thought because it entails complementary temperature and precipitation patterns associated with wetter or drier conditions on climate regime and annual scales. Complementary temperature and precipitation patterns characterize climate regime type (e.g., cool/wet and warm/dry), and the patterns entail increasing or decreasing temperatures and changes in magnitude and timing of precipitation according to the climate regime type. Accompanying each climate regime on annual scales are complementary temperature ( T) and precipitation ( P) patterns that are associated with upcoming precipitation and annual basin yield (i.e., total annual flow volume at a streamflow gauge). Annual complementary T and P patterns establish by fall, are detectable as early as September, persist to early spring, are related to the relative magnitude of upcoming precipitation and annual basin yield, are unique to climate regime type, and are specific to each river basin. Thus, while most of the water supply in the Upper CRB originates from winter snowpack, statistically significant indictors of relative magnitude of upcoming precipitation and runoff are evident in the fall, well before appreciable snow accumulation. Results of this study suggest strategies that may integrated into existing forecast methods to potentially improve forecast accuracy and advance lead time by as much as six months (i.e., from April 1 to October 1 of the previous year). These techniques also have applications in downscaling climate models and in river restoration and management.

Joule heating at high latitudes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Foster, J. C.; St.-Maurice, J.-P.; Abreu, V. J.

1983-01-01

Calculations based on simultaneous observations of the electric field magnitude, and individual measurements of ion drift velocity and particle precipitation, over the lifetime of the AE-C satellite, are used to determine high latitude Joule heating. Conductivities produced by an averaged seasonal illumination were included with those calculated from particle precipitation. It is found that high latitude Joule heating occurs in an approximately oval pattern, and consists of dayside cleft, dawn and dusk sunward convection, and night sector heating regions. On average, heating in the cleft and dawn-dusk regions contributes the largest heat input, and there is no apparent difference between hemispheres for similar seasons. Joule heat input is 50 percent greater in summer than in winter, due primarily to the greater conductivity caused by solar production.

Linkages Between Multiscale Global Sea Surface Temperature Change and Precipitation Variabilities in the US

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K. M.; Weng, Heng-Yi

1999-01-01

A growing number of evidence indicates that there are coherent patterns of variability in sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly not only at interannual timescales, but also at decadal-to-inter-decadal timescale and beyond. The multi-scale variabilities of SST anomaly have shown great impacts on climate. In this work, we analyze multiple timescales contained in the globally averaged SST anomaly with and their possible relationship with the summer and winter rainfall in the United States over the past four decades.

Decadal variations in the strength of ENSO teleconnections with precipitation in the western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Dettinger, M.D.

1999-01-01

Changing patterns of correlations between the historical average June-November Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and October-March precipitation totals for 84 climate divisions in the western US indicate a large amount of variability in SOI/precipitation relations on decadal time scales. Correlations of western US precipitation with SOI and other indices of tropical El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) processes were much weaker from 1920 to 1950 than during recent decades. This variability in teleconnections is associated with the character of tropical air-sea interactions as indexed by the number of out-of-phase SOI/tropical sea surface temperature (SST) episodes, and with decadal variability in the North Pacific Ocean as indexed by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). ENSO teleconnections with precipitation in the western US are strong when SOI and NINO3 are out-of-phase and PDO is negative. ENSO teleconnections are weak when SOI and NINO3 are weakly correlated and PDO is positive. Decadal modes of tropical and North Pacific Ocean climate variability are important indicators of periods when ENSO indices, like SOI, can be used as reliable predictors of winter precipitation in the US.

Effects of future climate conditions on streamflow dynamics in coastal southern California watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, D.; Zhao, Y.; Raoufi, R.; Beighley, E.; Melack, J.

2017-12-01

The Santa Barbara Coastal - Long Term Ecological Research Project is focused on investigating the relative importance of land and ocean processes in structuring giant kelp forest ecosystems. Understanding how current and future climate conditions influence terrestrial export of water is a central theme for the project. In this study, the Hillslope River Routing (HRR) model is forced with past measurement-based (1950 to 2005) and future model-based (2006 to 2100) precipitation and temperature to estimate daily streamflow dynamics. The study region is roughly 800 km2 with 179 watersheds ranging from 0.1 to 123 km2. The model-based forcings are downscaled to a spatial resolution of 6 km by 6 km. The Priestley and Taylor method is used to estimate potential evapotranspiration based on the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations limited climate data approximations and land surface conditions (albedo, leaf area index, land cover) measured from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra and Aqua satellites. The HRR model is calibrated for the period 1984 to 2013 using USGS streamflow. Median changes in downscaled precipitation projections from 10 models and two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) combined with significance testing, suggest that the distribution of precipitation throughout the rainy season will change: decrease at the beginning of the rainy season (Oct-Dec), increase during peak season (Jan-Mar) and decrease at the end (Apr-Jun). Annually, results suggest a slight increase in precipitation. The decrease of rainfall in spring and fall and increase in winter will lead to a shorter (10-15 days, 8-14%), more intense wet season. Both the magnitude and frequency of large storms (>36 mm/day) are likely to increase. Following the precipitation patterns, streamflow in spring and fall is likely to decrease while winter streamflow and annual peak flows are likely to increase due to increased winter precipitation and intensified large storms. The 100-yr flood during 2045-2100 is projected to increase by 10-160% under RCP 4.5 and 20-140% under RCP 8.5. The magnitudes of changes under RCP 8.5 tend to be higher than RCP 4.5, which indicates that the climate and hydrological response may be more extreme under higher emission scenarios.

Late Permian Forest Composition And Climate Revealed From High-Resolution Carbon Isotopes In Fossil Tree Rings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulbranson, E.; Isbell, J. L.; Taylor, E. L.; Ryberg, P. E.; Taylor, T. N.

2012-12-01

Late Permian forests from Antarctica are one of a few examples of polar forest biomes in Earth history. We present a paleoforestry and geochemical study of three contemporaneous Late Permian fossil forests and geochemical analysis of fossil wood specimens from the Permian-Triassic contact in Antarctica. Late Permian paleoforestry analysis suggests that these forests responded to disturbance in exactly the opposite manner as compared to modern boreal forests, with forest thinning and loss of understory vegetation occurring towards areas of disturbance. New high-resolution carbon isotope data from 6 permineralized stumps, 32 tree rings studied in total, indicate that these forests were mixed evergreen and deciduous, but dominated by deciduous trees. Moreover, intra-tree ring and ring-to-ring variation of δ13C values suggest that the Late Permian polar climate maintained wet winters, with precipitation in the austral winter being a factor of three greater than the austral summer. Such seasonality in precipitation implies the development of a temperate-like climate at polar latitudes following the demise of the late Paleozoic ice age. High-resolution carbon isotopes in tree rings in a stratigraphic succession of Late Permian fossil wood to fossil wood at the Permian-Triassic contact indicates that Antarctica experienced a change in precipitation patterns around the time of the Permian-Triassic boundary, marked by intervals of pronounced drying juxtaposed against wetter conditions.

Uncertainty Analysis of Downscaled CMIP5 Precipitation Data for Louisiana, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sumi, S. J.; Tamanna, M.; Chivoiu, B.; Habib, E. H.

2014-12-01

The downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate and Hydrology Projections dataset contains fine spatial resolution translations of climate projections over the contiguous United States developed using two downscaling techniques (monthly Bias Correction Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD) and daily Bias Correction Constructed Analogs (BCCA)). The objective of this study is to assess the uncertainty of the CMIP5 downscaled general circulation models (GCM). We performed an analysis of the daily, monthly, seasonal and annual variability of precipitation downloaded from the Downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate and Hydrology Projections website for the state of Louisiana, USA at 0.125° x 0.125° resolution. A data set of daily gridded observations of precipitation of a rectangular boundary covering Louisiana is used to assess the validity of 21 downscaled GCMs for the 1950-1999 period. The following statistics are computed using the CMIP5 observed dataset with respect to the 21 models: the correlation coefficient, the bias, the normalized bias, the mean absolute error (MAE), the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and the root mean square error (RMSE). A measure of variability simulated by each model is computed as the ratio of its standard deviation, in both space and time, to the corresponding standard deviation of the observation. The correlation and MAPE statistics are also computed for each of the nine climate divisions of Louisiana. Some of the patterns that we observed are: 1) Average annual precipitation rate shows similar spatial distribution for all the models within a range of 3.27 to 4.75 mm/day from Northwest to Southeast. 2) Standard deviation of summer (JJA) precipitation (mm/day) for the models maintains lower value than the observation whereas they have similar spatial patterns and range of values in winter (NDJ). 3) Correlation coefficients of annual precipitation of models against observation have a range of -0.48 to 0.36 with variable spatial distribution by model. 4) Most of the models show negative correlation coefficients in summer and positive in winter. 5) MAE shows similar spatial distribution for all the models within a range of 5.20 to 7.43 mm/day from Northwest to Southeast of Louisiana. 6) Highest values of correlation coefficients are found at seasonal scale within a range of 0.36 to 0.46.

Prediction of the Arctic Oscillation in Boreal Winter by Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kang, Daehyun; Lee, Myong-In; Im, Jungho; Kim, Daehyun; Kim, Hye-Mi; Kang, Hyun-Suk; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Arribas, Alberto; MacLachlan, Craig

2014-01-01

This study assesses the skill of boreal winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) predictions with state-of-the-art dynamical ensemble prediction systems (EPSs): GloSea4, CFSv2, GEOS-5, CanCM3, CanCM4, and CM2.1. Long-term reforecasts with the EPSs are used to evaluate how well they represent the AO and to assess the skill of both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts of the AO. The reforecasts reproduce the observed changes in the large-scale patterns of the Northern Hemispheric surface temperature, upper level wind, and precipitation associated with the different phases of the AO. The results demonstrate that most EPSs improve upon persistence skill scores for lead times up to 2 months in boreal winter, suggesting some potential for skillful prediction of the AO and its associated climate anomalies at seasonal time scales. It is also found that the skill of AO forecasts during the recent period (1997-2010) is higher than that of the earlier period (1983-1996).

Precipitation stable isotope records from the northern Hengduan Mountains in China capture signals of the winter India-Burma Trough and the Indian Summer Monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Wusheng; Tian, Lide; Yao, Tandong; Xu, Baiqing; Wei, Feili; Ma, Yaoming; Zhu, Haifeng; Luo, Lun; Qu, Dongmei

2017-11-01

This project reports results of the first precipitation stable isotope (δ18 O and δD) time series produced for Qamdo in the northern Hengduan Mountains in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. The data showed that the fluctuations of precipitation stable isotopes at Qamdo during the different seasons revealed various moisture sources. The westerlies and local recycling moisture dominated at the study area before the pre-monsoon and after the post-monsoon seasons, which resulted in similar trends of both precipitation stable isotopes and temperature. The marine moisture was transported to the northern Hengduan Mountains by the winter India-Burma Trough combined with convection. Consequently, stable isotopes in subsequent precipitation were occasionally observed to decrease suddenly. However, δ18 O and δD values of precipitation at Qamdo were lower during the monsoon period and the duration of those low values was longer because of the effects of the Indian Summer Monsoon and the strengthening convection. Our findings indicate that the effects of seasonal precipitation differences caused by various climate systems, including the winter India-Burma Trough and Indian Summer Monsoon, need to be considered when attempting to interpret tree-ring and ice core records for the Hengduan Mountains.

Divergent ecological effects of oceanographic anomalies on terrestrial ecosystems of the Mexican Pacific coast

PubMed Central

Caso, Margarita; González-Abraham, Charlotte; Ezcurra, Exequiel

2007-01-01

Precipitation pulses are essential for the regeneration of drylands and have been shown to be related to oceanographic anomalies. However, whereas some studies report increased precipitation in drylands in northern Mexico during El Niño years, others report increased drought in the southern drylands. To elucidate the effect of oceanographic/atmospheric anomalies on moisture pulses along the whole Pacific coast of Mexico, we correlated the average Southern Oscillation Index values with total annual precipitation for 117 weather stations. We also analyzed this relationship for three separate rainfall signals: winter-spring, summer monsoon, and fall precipitation. The results showed a distinct but divergent seasonal pattern: El Niño events tend to bring increased rainfall in the Mexican northwest but tend to increase aridity in the ecosystems of the southern tropical Pacific slope. The analysis for the separated rainfall seasons showed that El Niño conditions produce a marked increase in winter rainfall above 22° latitude, whereas La Niña conditions tend to produce an increase in the summer monsoon-type rainfall that predominates in the tropical south. Because these dryland ecosystems are dependent on rainfall pulses for their renewal, understanding the complex effect of ocean conditions may be critical for their management in the future. Restoration ecology, grazing regimes, carrying capacities, fire risks, and continental runoff into the oceans could be predicted from oceanographic conditions. Monitoring the coupled atmosphere–ocean system may prove to be important in managing and mitigating the effects of large-scale climatic change on coastal drylands in the future. PMID:17563355

Paleoclimate reconstruction along the Pole-Equator-Pole transect of the Americas (PEP 1)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Markgraf, Vera; Baumgartner, T.R.; Bradbury, J.P.; Diaz, Henry F.; Dunbar, R.B.; Luckman, B.H.; Seltzer, G.O.; Swetnam, T.W.; Villalba, R.

2000-01-01

Examples are presented of inter-hemispheric comparison of instrumental climate and paleoclimate proxy records from the Americas for different temporal scales. Despite a certain symmetry of seasonal precipitation patterns along the PEP I transect, decadal variability of winter precipitation shows different characteristics in terms of amplitude and frequency in both the last 100 and last 1000 years. Such differences in variability are also seen in a comparison of time series of different El Nino/Southern Oscillation proxy records from North and South America, however, these differences do not appear to affect the spatial correlation with Pacific sea surface temperature patterns. Local and regional differences in response to climate change are even more pronounced for records with lower temporal resolution, and inter-hemispheric synchroneity may or may not be indicative of the same forcing. This aspect is illustrated in an inter-hemispheric comparison of the last 1000 years of glacier variability, and of the full- and lateglacial lake level history.

Investigating the potential impacts of local climate change on the meltwater supply of a small snow-fed mountain river system: A case study of the Animas River, Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, C. A.

2010-12-01

The western US receives up to 80% of its annual streamflow from snowmelt fed river systems during the mid-to-late spring season. Changes in winter and spring air temperature and precipitation patterns have, however, begun to alter this sensitive hydroclimatological process, both in terms of the timing and magnitude of snowmelt events and the responding streamflow. Monitoring and planning for these changes in the future may well prove crucial for local water resource planners who traditionally rely on historical trends or means for water resource planning. Local-level water resource planners also often do not have the data or tools at the right resolution available to them for the same planning purposes. This goal of this research was to identify how changes in the local winter-spring climate may alter the hydrological response of a typical small mountain snowmelt fed river system, the Animas River in SW Colorado. To achieve this, a statistical downscaling technique was applied to increase the resolution of, and build a linear relationship between, historical upper atmospheric reanalysis data to surface level mean air temperature and precipitation for several climate stations located across the basin for 1950-2007. The same technique was then used to increase the resolution of two GCM scenarios from the NCAR CCSM3 model SRES-AR4 data runs (a 'business as usual’ or A1B scenario, and an increase in global greenhouse gas emissions or A2 scenario) using the same relationships between the historical upper atmospheric reanalysis data and the surface station climate data. Snowmelt streamflow magnitude and timing were then projected to 2099 based on their historical relationship to mean monthly winter and spring air temperature and precipitation before being compared to the historical averages. Results indicated a shift in the timing of the snowmelt streamflow to earlier in the spring, and a reduction in the magnitude of peak spring streamflow following increasing spring temperatures and decreasing winter precipitation across the basin. These techniques and methods may provide a starting framework for local-level water resource planners to monitor and prepare for any future changes to basinwide hydroclimatology.

A major increase in winter snowfall during the middle Holocene on western Greenland caused by reduced sea ice in Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Elizabeth K.; Briner, Jason P.; Ryan-Henry, John J.; Huang, Yongsong

2016-05-01

Precipitation is predicted to increase in the Arctic as temperature increases and sea ice retreats. Yet the mechanisms controlling precipitation in the Arctic are poorly understood and quantified only by the short, sparse instrumental record. We use hydrogen isotope ratios (δ2H) of lipid biomarkers in lake sediments from western Greenland to reconstruct precipitation seasonality and summer temperature during the past 8 kyr. Aquatic biomarker δ2H was 100‰ more negative from 6 to 4 ka than during the early and late Holocene, which we interpret to reflect increased winter snowfall. The middle Holocene also had high summer air temperature, decreased early winter sea ice in Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea, and a strong, warm West Greenland Current. These results corroborate model predictions of winter snowfall increases caused by sea ice retreat and furthermore suggest that warm currents advecting more heat into the polar seas may enhance Arctic evaporation and snowfall.

Water availability change in central Belgium for the late 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tabari, Hossein; Taye, Meron Teferi; Willems, Patrick

2015-08-01

We investigate the potential impact of climate change on water availability in central Belgium. Two water balance components being precipitation and potential evapotranspiration are initially projected for the late 21st century (2071-2100) based on 30 Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models relative to a baseline period of 1961-1990, assuming forcing by four representative concentration pathway emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5). The future available water is then estimated as the difference between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration projections. The number of wet days and mean monthly precipitation for summer season is projected to decrease in most of the scenarios, while the projections show an increase in those variables for the winter months. Potential evapotranspiration is expected to increase during both winter and summer seasons. The results show a decrease in water availability for summer and an increase for winter, suggesting drier summers and wetter winters for the late 21st century in central Belgium.

Climatic potential for tourism in the Black Forest, Germany — winter season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Endler, Christina; Matzarakis, Andreas

2011-05-01

Climate change, whether natural or human-caused, will have an impact on human life, including recreation and tourism among other things. In this study, methods from biometeorology and tourism climatology are used to assess the effect of a changed climate on tourism and recreation in particular. The study area is the Black Forest mountainous region of south-west Germany, which is well known for its tourist and recreational assets. Climate model projections for the 2021-2050 period based on REMO-UBA simulations with a high spatial resolution of 10 km are compared to a 30-year reference period (1971-2000) using the IPCC emission scenarios A1B and B1. The results show that the mean winter air temperature will increase by up to 1.8°C, which is the most pronounced warming compared to the other seasons. The annual precipitation amount will increase marginally by 5% in the A1B scenario and 10% in the B1 scenario. Winter precipitation contributes about 10% (A1B) and 30% (B1) to variations in annual precipitation. Although the results show that winter precipitation will increase slightly, snow days affecting skiing will be reduced on average by approximately 40% due to regional warming. Cold stress will be reduced on average by up to 25%. The result is that the thermal environment will be advanced, and warmer winters are likely to lead to an upward altitudinal shift of ski resorts and winter sport activities, thus displacing land-use currently dedicated to nature conservation.

Climatic potential for tourism in the Black Forest, Germany--winter season.

PubMed

Endler, Christina; Matzarakis, Andreas

2011-05-01

Climate change, whether natural or human-caused, will have an impact on human life, including recreation and tourism among other things. In this study, methods from biometeorology and tourism climatology are used to assess the effect of a changed climate on tourism and recreation in particular. The study area is the Black Forest mountainous region of south-west Germany, which is well known for its tourist and recreational assets. Climate model projections for the 2021-2050 period based on REMO-UBA simulations with a high spatial resolution of 10 km are compared to a 30-year reference period (1971-2000) using the IPCC emission scenarios A1B and B1. The results show that the mean winter air temperature will increase by up to 1.8°C, which is the most pronounced warming compared to the other seasons. The annual precipitation amount will increase marginally by 5% in the A1B scenario and 10% in the B1 scenario. Winter precipitation contributes about 10% (A1B) and 30% (B1) to variations in annual precipitation. Although the results show that winter precipitation will increase slightly, snow days affecting skiing will be reduced on average by approximately 40% due to regional warming. Cold stress will be reduced on average by up to 25%. The result is that the thermal environment will be advanced, and warmer winters are likely to lead to an upward altitudinal shift of ski resorts and winter sport activities, thus displacing land-use currently dedicated to nature conservation.

Moisture Balance Over the Iberian Peninsula According to a Regional Climate Model: The Impact of 3DVAR Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Rojí, Santos J.; Sáenz, Jon; Ibarra-Berastegi, Gabriel; Díaz de Argandoña, Javier

2018-01-01

An analysis of the atmospheric branch of the hydrological cycle by means of a 15 km resolution numerical integration performed using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) nested in ERA Interim is presented. Two WRF experiments covering the period 2010-2014 were prepared. The first one (N) was configured as in standard numerical downscaling experiments. The second one (D), with the same parameterizations, included a step of 3DVAR data assimilation every 6 h. Apart from comparing our results with ERA Interim data, several observational data sets were used to validate the precipitable water (radiosondes and MODIS data), precipitation (EOBS, ECA&D, TRMM, and GPCP), or evaporation (GLEAM). The verification results showed that the D experiment systematically performs better than N and in many instances, too, better than the forcing reanalysis. According to the results, the leading terms of the water balance are the tendency of the precipitable water, the divergence of moisture flux, evaporation, and precipitation. No spatial patterns were recognizable for the annual accumulated evaporation, but the effect of the Atlantic fronts was detected in the precipitation patterns. The transboundary moisture fluxes through the contour of the Iberian Peninsula behave differently depending on the season during 2010-2014. During winter, they show a net moisture import through the boundaries. During spring, summer, or autumn moisture is exported specially through the Mediterranean coast, and only during midday, this feature is reversed due to sea breezes.

Comprehensive Evaluation of GPM and TRMM: A Case Study of the Winter 2015-2016 over California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, J.; Liu, H.

2016-12-01

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) has been established to provide the next-generation observations of precipitation globally. It gives the opportunities to measure the snow and lighter rainfall rates, which are relatively difficult to be retrieved by the previous missions. Recently, the state of California experienced with El Nino in the winter of 2015-2016, which brought more-than-average rainfall and snow to the much of areas in the state. This study focused on the state of California to examine how well GPM can capture the winter precipitation compared to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). The Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) final-run and TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) version 7 were evaluated against the ground reference of NOAA stage IV multi-sensor composite rain analysis. This study employed both the pixel-based and object-based verification measures to conduct a comprehensive evaluation for GPM and TRMM in the winter season. Probability of Detection, False Alarm Ratio, Bias Ratio, Taylor Diagram, Object-based Missing Ratio, Object-based False Alarm Ratio and Overall Interest Score were used as evaluation metrics. We found the IMERG-final has a better overall performance. We anticipate that the IMERG will benefit the applications of satellite remote-sensed precipitation, such as, hydrological flood modeling, watershed management and climate studies.

Cross-seasonal effects on waterfowl productivity: Implications under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Osnas, Erik; Zhao, Qing; Runge, Michael C.; Boomer, G Scott

2016-01-01

Previous efforts to relate winter-ground precipitation to subsequent reproductive success as measured by the ratio of juveniles to adults in the autumn failed to account for increased vulnerability of juvenile ducks to hunting and uncertainty in the estimated age ratio. Neglecting increased juvenile vulnerability will positively bias the mean productivity estimate, and neglecting increased vulnerability and estimation uncertainty will positively bias the year-to-year variance in productivity because raw age ratios are the product of sampling variation, the year-specific vulnerability, and year-specific reproductive success. Therefore, we estimated the effects of cumulative winter precipitation in the California Central Valley and the Mississippi Alluvial Valley on pintail (Anas acuta) and mallard (Anas platyrhnchos) reproduction, respectively, using hierarchical Bayesian methods to correct for sampling bias in productivity estimates and observation error in covariates. We applied the model to a hunter-collected parts survey implemented by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service and band recoveries reported to the United States Geological Survey Bird Banding Laboratory using data from 1961 to 2013. We compared our results to previous estimates that used simple linear regression on uncorrected age ratios from a smaller subset of years in pintail (1961–1985). Like previous analyses, we found large and consistent effects of population size and wetland conditions in prairie Canada on mallard productivity, and large effects of population size and mean latitude of the observed breeding population on pintail productivity. Unlike previous analyses, we report a large amount of uncertainty in the estimated effects of wintering-ground precipitation on pintail and mallard productivity, with considerable uncertainty in the sign of the estimated main effect, although the posterior medians of precipitation effects were consistent with past studies. We found more consistent estimates in the sign of an interaction effect between population size and precipitation, suggesting that wintering-ground precipitation has a larger effect in years of high population size, especially for pintail. When we used the estimated effects in a population model to derive a sustainable harvest and population size projection (i.e., a yield curve), there was considerable uncertainty in the effect of increased or decreased wintering-ground precipitation on sustainable harvest potential and population size. These results suggest that the mechanism of cross-seasonal effects between winter habitat and reproduction in ducks occurs through a reduction in the strength of density dependence in years of above-average wintering-ground precipitation. We suggest additional investigation of the underlying mechanisms and that habitat managers and decision-makers consider the level of uncertainty in these estimates when attempting to integrate habitat management and harvest management decisions. Collection of annual data on the status of wintering-ground habitat in a rigorous sampling framework would likely be the most direct way to improve understanding of mechanisms and inform management.

Investigation of mesoscale precipitation processes in the Carolinas using a radar-based climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boyles, Ryan Patrick

The complex topography, shoreline, soils, and land use patterns makes the Carolinas a unique location to study mesoscale processes. Using gage-calibrated radar estimates and a series of numerical model simulations, warm season mesoscale precipitation patterns are analyzed over the Carolinas. Gage-calibrated radar precipitation estimates are compared with surface gage observations. Stage IV estimates generally compared better than Stage II estimates, but some Stage II and Stage IV estimates have gross errors during autumn, winter, and spring seasons. Analysis of days when sea breeze is observed suggests that sea breeze induced precipitation occurs on nearly 40% of days in June, July, and August, but only 18% in May and 6% of days in April. Precipitation on days with sea breeze convection can contribute to over 50% of seasonal precipitation. Rainfall associated with sea breeze is generally maximized along east-facing shores 10-20 km inland, and minimized along south-facing shores in North Carolina. The shape of the shoreline along Cape Fear is associated with a local precipitation maximum that may be caused by the convergence of two sea breeze fronts from the south and east shores. Differential heating associated with contrasting soils along the Carolina Sandhills is suggested as a mechanism for enhancement in local precipitation. A high-resolution summer precipitation climatology suggests that precipitation is enhanced along the Sandhills region in both wet and dry years. Analysis of four numerical simulations suggests that contrasts in soils over the Carolinas Sandhills dominates over vegetation contrasts to produce heat flux gradients and a convergence zone along the sand-to-clay transition. Orographically induced precipitation is consistently observed in the summer, and appears to be isolated along windward slopes at 20km--40km from the ridge line. Amounts over external ridges are generally 50-100% higher than amounts observed over the foothills. Precipitation amounts over interior ridges and valleys are lower than observed on exterior ridges and are similar to values observed over the foothills. When compared with Stage IV estimates, the PRISM (Precipitation-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model) method for estimating precipitation in complex terrain appears to largely over-estimate precipitation amounts over the interior ridges.

The forcing of southwestern Asia teleconnections by low-frequency sea surface temperature variability during boreal winter

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoell, Andrew; Funk, Christopher C.; Mathew Barlow,

2015-01-01

Southwestern Asia, defined here as the domain bounded by 20°–40°N and 40°–70°E, which includes the nations of Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, is a water-stressed and semiarid region that receives roughly 75% of its annual rainfall during November–April. The November–April climate of southwestern Asia is strongly influenced by tropical Indo-Pacific variability on intraseasonal and interannual time scales, much of which can be attributed to sea surface temperature (SST) variations. The influences of lower-frequency SST variability on southwestern Asia climate during November–April Pacific decadal SST (PDSST) variability and the long-term trend in SST (LTSST) is examined. The U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Program (CLIVAR) Drought Working Group forced global atmospheric climate models with PDSST and LTSST patterns, identified using empirical orthogonal functions, to show the steady atmospheric response to these modes of decadal to multidecadal SST variability. During November–April, LTSST forces an anticyclone over southwestern Asia, which results in reduced precipitation and increases in surface temperature. The precipitation and tropospheric circulation influences of LTSST are corroborated by independent observed precipitation and circulation datasets during 1901–2004. The decadal variations of southwestern Asia precipitation may be forced by PDSST variability, with two of the three models indicating that the cold phase of PDSST forces an anticyclone and precipitation reductions. However, there are intermodel circulation variations to PDSST that influence subregional precipitation patterns over the Middle East, southwestern Asia, and subtropical Asia. Changes in wintertime temperature and precipitation over southwestern Asia forced by LTSST and PDSST imply important changes to the land surface hydrology during the spring and summer.

Objective classification of atmospheric circulation over southern Scandinavia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linderson, Maj-Lena

2001-02-01

A method for calculating circulation indices and weather types following the Lamb classification is applied to southern Scandinavia. The main objective is to test the ability of the method to describe the atmospheric circulation over the area, and to evaluate the extent to which the pressure patterns determine local precipitation and temperature in Scania, southernmost Sweden. The weather type classification method works well and produces distinct groups. However, the variability within the group is large with regard to the location of the low pressure centres, which may have implications for the precipitation over the area. The anticyclonic weather type dominates, together with the cyclonic and westerly types. This deviates partly from the general picture for Sweden and may be explained by the southerly location of the study area. The cyclonic type is most frequent in spring, although cloudiness and amount of rain are lowest during this season. This could be explained by the occurrence of weaker cyclones or low air humidity during this time of year. Local temperature and precipitation were modelled by stepwise regression for each season, designating weather types as independent variables. Only the winter season-modelled temperature and precipitation show a high and robust correspondence to the observed temperature and precipitation, even though <60% of the precipitation variance is explained. In the other seasons, the connection between atmospheric circulation and the local temperature and precipitation is low. Other meteorological parameters may need to be taken into account. The time and space resolution of the mean sea level pressure (MSLP) grid may affect the results, as many important features might not be covered by the classification. Local physiography may also influence the local climate in a way that cannot be described by the atmospheric circulation pattern alone, stressing the importance of using more than one observation series.

Climate, geography, and tree establishment in Subalpine Meadows of the Olympic Mountains, Washington, U.S.A.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Woodward, A.; Silsbee, D.G.; Schreiner, E.G.

1995-08-01

Noticeable changes in vegetation distribution have occurred in the Pacific Northwest during the last century as trees have established in some subalpine meadows. To study the relationship of this process to climate, recently established trees were aged in six subalpine meadows in the Olympic Mountains, Washington. The sites represent three points along a steep precipitation gradient. Subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) has been establishing at the dry end of the gradient, mountain hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana) at the wet end, and both species in the center. Establishment patterns were compared with deviations from the century-long average for these weather variables: winter precipitation,more » Palmer Drought Severity Index, and winter, October and May temperatures. Results show that establishment occurred in dry areas when weather conditions were wetter than average, and in wet areas under drier than average conditions. Establishment at central sites did not show consistent relationships with climate. If future climatic conditions continue to warm, establishment of subalpine fir in subalpine meadows in dry areas may cease and mountain hemlock may resume in wet areas. 34 refs., 5 figs., 3 tabs.« less

On the importance of appropriate precipitation gauge catch correction for hydrological modelling at mid to high latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stisen, S.; Højberg, A. L.; Troldborg, L.; Refsgaard, J. C.; Christensen, B. S. B.; Olsen, M.; Henriksen, H. J.

2012-11-01

Precipitation gauge catch correction is often given very little attention in hydrological modelling compared to model parameter calibration. This is critical because significant precipitation biases often make the calibration exercise pointless, especially when supposedly physically-based models are in play. This study addresses the general importance of appropriate precipitation catch correction through a detailed modelling exercise. An existing precipitation gauge catch correction method addressing solid and liquid precipitation is applied, both as national mean monthly correction factors based on a historic 30 yr record and as gridded daily correction factors based on local daily observations of wind speed and temperature. The two methods, named the historic mean monthly (HMM) and the time-space variable (TSV) correction, resulted in different winter precipitation rates for the period 1990-2010. The resulting precipitation datasets were evaluated through the comprehensive Danish National Water Resources model (DK-Model), revealing major differences in both model performance and optimised model parameter sets. Simulated stream discharge is improved significantly when introducing the TSV correction, whereas the simulated hydraulic heads and multi-annual water balances performed similarly due to recalibration adjusting model parameters to compensate for input biases. The resulting optimised model parameters are much more physically plausible for the model based on the TSV correction of precipitation. A proxy-basin test where calibrated DK-Model parameters were transferred to another region without site specific calibration showed better performance for parameter values based on the TSV correction. Similarly, the performances of the TSV correction method were superior when considering two single years with a much dryer and a much wetter winter, respectively, as compared to the winters in the calibration period (differential split-sample tests). We conclude that TSV precipitation correction should be carried out for studies requiring a sound dynamic description of hydrological processes, and it is of particular importance when using hydrological models to make predictions for future climates when the snow/rain composition will differ from the past climate. This conclusion is expected to be applicable for mid to high latitudes, especially in coastal climates where winter precipitation types (solid/liquid) fluctuate significantly, causing climatological mean correction factors to be inadequate.

Corrigendum to Aerosol impacts on California winter clouds and precipitation during CalWater 2011: local pollution versus long-range transported dust published in Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 81–101, 2014

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fan, Jiwen; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; DeMott, Paul J.

2014-05-01

In the paper “Aerosol impacts on California winter clouds and precipitation during CalWater 2011: local pollution versus long-range transported dust” by J. Fan et al., wrong versions of Fig. 8 and Fig. 12 were published. Please find the correct figures below.

Shrubland carbon sink depends upon winter water availability in the warm deserts of North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Biederman, Joel A.; Scott, Russell L.; John A. Arnone,; Jasoni, Richard L.; Litvak, Marcy E.; Moreo, Michael T.; Papuga, Shirley A.; Ponce-Campos, Guillermo E.; Schreiner-McGraw, Adam P.; Vivoni, Enrique R.

2018-01-01

Global-scale studies suggest that dryland ecosystems dominate an increasing trend in the magnitude and interannual variability of the land CO2 sink. However, such model-based analyses are poorly constrained by measured CO2 exchange in open shrublands, which is the most common global land cover type, covering ∼14% of Earth’s surface. Here we evaluate how the amount and seasonal timing of water availability regulate CO2 exchange between shrublands and the atmosphere. We use eddy covariance data from six US sites across the three warm deserts of North America with observed ranges in annual precipitation of ∼100–400mm, annual temperatures of 13–18°C, and records of 2–8 years (33 site-years in total). The Chihuahuan, Sonoran and Mojave Deserts present gradients in both mean annual precipitation and its seasonal distribution between the wet-winter Mojave Desert and the wet-summer Chihuahuan Desert. We found that due to hydrologic losses during the wettest summers in the Sonoran and Chihuahuan Deserts, evapotranspiration (ET) was a better metric than precipitation of water available to drive dryland CO2 exchange. In contrast with recent synthesis studies across diverse dryland biomes, we found that NEP could not be directly predicted from ET due to wintertime decoupling of the relationship between ecosystem respiration (Reco) and gross ecosystem productivity (GEP). Ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE=GEP/ET) did not differ between winter and summer. Carbon use efficiency (CUE=NEP/GEP), however, was greater in winter because Reco returned a smaller fraction of carbon to the atmosphere (23% of GEP) than in summer (77%). Combining the water-carbon relations found here with historical precipitation since 1980, we estimate that lower average winter precipitation during the 21st century reduced the net carbon sink of the three deserts by an average of 6.8TgC yr1. Our results highlight that winter precipitation is critical to the annual carbon balance of these warm desert shrublands.

Recent and future extreme precipitation over Ukraine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vyshkvarkova, Olena; Voskresenskaya, Elena

2014-05-01

The aim of study is to analyze the parameters of precipitation extremes and inequality over Ukraine in recent climate epoch and their possible changes in the future. Data of observations from 28 hydrometeorological stations over Ukraine and output of GFDL-CM3 model (CMIP5) for XXI century were used in the study. The methods of concentration index (J. Martin-Vide, 2004) for the study of precipitation inequality while the extreme precipitation indices recommended by the ETCCDI - for the frequency of events. Results. Precipitation inequality on the annual and seasonal scales was studied using estimated CI series for 1951-2005. It was found that annual CI ranges vary from 0.58 to 0.64. They increase southward from the north-west (forest zone) and the north-east (forest steppe zone) of Ukraine. CI maxima are located in the coastal regions of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. Annual CI spatial distribution indicates that the contribution of extreme precipitation into annual totals is most significant at the boundary zone between steppe and marine regions. At the same time precipitation pattern at the foothill of Carpathian Mountains is more homogenous. The CI minima (0.54) are typical for the winter season in foothill of Ukrainian Carpathians. The CI maxima reach 0.71 in spring at the steppe zone closed to the Black Sea coast. It should be noted that the greatest ranges of CI maximum and CI minimum deviation are typical for spring. It is associated with patterns of cyclone trajectories in that season. The most territory is characterized by tendency to decrease the contribution of extreme precipitation into the total amount (CI linear trends are predominantly negative in all seasons). Decadal and interdecadal variability of precipitation inequality associated with global processes in ocean-atmosphere system are also studied. It was shown that precipitation inequality over Ukraine on 10 - 15 % stronger in negative phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and in positive phase of Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Typical space distribution of extreme precipitation (R95p) for seasons and for year is characterized by their southward intensity increasing from North-East and North-West. Summer precipitation extremes are characterized by quite homogeneous distribution. Linear trends of indices of precipitation extremes (R95p, R20mm and R30mm) for period 1951 - 2005 are mainly negative in winter season and positive in summer. To analyze the possible changes of extreme precipitation it was calculated the R95p index for recent climate period (1986 - 2005) and for periods 2046 - 2065 and 2081 - 2100 (as it was recommended by IPCC). Its difference between 1986 - 2005 and 2046 - 2065 shows that intensity of extreme precipitation will decrease in the north-east and increase in the south-west regions, especially in summer season. Magnitude of intensity changes of extreme precipitation will be ± 4 - 5 mm/day. The intensity changes of extreme precipitation since the recent climate period till the end of the century will be some less (2 - 3 mm/day) than in previous period, except summer months. Number of cases with precipitation extremes will be increase in southern regions of Ukraine in summer seasons. In other seasons it will be at the recent climate level.

Tendencies of extreme values on rainfall and temperature and its relationship with teleconnection patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taboada, J. J.; Cabrejo, A.; Guarin, D.; Ramos, A. M.

2009-04-01

It is now very well established that yearly averaged temperatures are increasing due to anthropogenic climate change. In the area of Galicia (NW Spain) this trend has also been determined. Rainfall does not show a clear tendency in its yearly accumulated values. The aim of this work is to study different extreme indices of rainfall and temperatures analysing variability and possible trends associated to climate change. Station data for the study was provided by the CLIMA database of the regional government of Galicia (NW Spain). The definition of the extreme indices was taken from the joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team (ET) on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) This group has defined a set of standard extreme values to simplify intercomparison of data from different regions of the world. For the temperatures in the period 1960-2006, results show a significant increase of the number of days with maximum temperatures above the 90th percentile. Furthermore, a significant decrease of the days with maximum temperatures below the 10th percentile has been found. The tendencies of minimum temperatures are reverse: fewer nights with minimum temperatures below 10th percentile, and more with minimum temperatures above 90th percentile. Those tendencies can be observed all over the year, but are more pronounced in summer. This trend is expected to continue in the next decades because of anthropogenic climate change. We have also calculated the relationship between the above mentioned extreme values and different teleconnection patterns appearing in the North Atlantic area. Results show that local tendencies are associated with trends of EA (Eastern Atlantic) and SCA (Scandinavian) patterns. NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) has also some relationship with these tendencies, but only related with cold days and nights in winter. Rainfall index do not show any clear tendency on the annual scale. Nevertheless, the count of days when precipitation is greater than 20mm (R20mm) and the total precipitation when rainfall is greater than 95th percentile (R95pTOT) diminishes in winter and spring, but increases in autumn. This trend is related with NAO in winter and spring and with SCA in autumn.

Past and future impact of North Atlantic teleconnection patterns on the hydroclimate of the Caspian catchment area in CESM1.2.2 and observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nandini, Sri

2017-04-01

The Caspian Sea level has undergone dramatic variations of more than 3 m during the past century with important implications for the life of coastal people, economy and the ecosystem. The origin of these variations as well as future changes in the Caspian water budget are still a matter of debate. In this study, we examine the influence of the major seasonal North Atlantic teleconnection patterns, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the East Atlantic pattern (EA), the Scandinavian pattern (SCA), and the North Sea Caspian Pattern (NCP), on Caspian hydroclimate variability from 1850-2000 CE. Numerical experiments at different atmospheric grid resolutions (2° and 1°) are carried out with the coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM1.2.2). We test model skills under different resolutions through validation against observational data by various statistical methods (Empirical Orthogonal Functions, Taylor diagrams, linear regressions and Spearman rank correlation). Results reveal the strongest simulated signal in winter (DJF) with high explained variances for 1° CESM1.2.2 NAO (39%) and EA (15.7%), similar to observational data. The model is unable to reproduce the SCA pattern in the third EOF, which is found in the observations. The modelled NAO has a strong influence on winter temperature and rainfall over the Caspian catchment area. A strong winter NCP induces above-average 2-meter temperatures over north Caspian region and lower-than-normal precipitation over the eastern Caspian sea. Our study suggests that the 1° version of CESM1.2.2 (with CAM5 atmosphere physics) shows adequate performance with respect to teleconnection maps during the historical period. Lastly, 1° model climate projections (2005-2100 CE) are performed with different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) to examine potential changes in the teleconnection patterns and their influence on the Caspian region.

Precipitation Structure in the Sierra Nevada of California During Winter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pandey, Ganesh R.; Cayan, Daniel R.; Georgakakos, Kostantine P.

1998-01-01

The influences of upper air characteristics along the coast of California upon the winter time precipitation in the Sierra Nevada region were investigated. Most precipitation episodes in the Sierra are associated with moist southwesterly winds and also tend to occur when the 700-mb temperature is close to -2 C. This favored wind direction and temperature signifies the equal importance of moisture transport and orographic lifting for maximum precipitation frequency. Making use of this observation, simple linear models were formulated to quantify the precipitation totals observed at different sites as a function of moisture transport. The skill of the model is least for daily precipitation and increases with time scale of aggregation. In terms of incremental gain, the skill of the model is optimal for an aggregation period of 5-7 days, which is also the duration of the most frequent precipitation events in the Sierra. This indicates that upper air moisture transport at can be used to make reasonable estimates of the precipitation totals for most frequent events in the Sierra region.

The Eurasia-North Pacific Oscillation in atmospheric mass variations independent of both IHO and AO and its possible impacts on winter climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qian; Guan, Zhaoyong; Li, Minggang

2018-06-01

Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, we have investigated the features of migrations of atmospheric mass (AM) between land and ocean in Eurasia-North Pacific domain in boreal winter after having both signals of Inter-hemispheric Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation removed from the physical quantities. It is found that there is a Eurasia-North Pacific Oscillation (ENPO) in surface air pressure anomalies. This ENPO pattern characterizes with two oppositely signed anomalous surface pressure centers over Eurasia and North Pacific respectively, indicating strong connections between Siberian high and Aleutian low during period 1979-2012. The maintenance of this ENPO teleconnection is significantly associated with three factors including the anomalous AM flows and zonal circulation cell over Eurasia-North Pacific domain, the Rossby wave energy propagations, and the thermal forcing contrasts near the surface between Eurasia and North Pacific during boreal winter. The variations of both wintertime rainfall and temperature over Eurasia may be strongly affected by ENPO. When the ENPO index is positive (negative), there occurs the AM accumulation (depletion) over Eurasia with simultaneous depletion (accumulation) over mid-latitude North-Pacific. Correspondingly, this anomalous surface pressure pattern along with the related circulation anomalies at different isobaric levels possibly results in winter precipitation decreases (increases) over Siberian Plain and East China, whereas increases (decreases) over southeastern Europe, Xinjiang of China, and the west coast of Sea of Okhotsk. On the other hand, surface air temperature decreases (increases) over large areas of Eurasia. These results are helpful for our better understanding the mechanisms behind circulation and winter climate variations over Eurasia-North Pacific region.

Trends in timing, magnitude, and duration of summer and fall/winter streamflows for unregulated coastal river basins in Maine during the 20th century

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dudley, Robert W.; Hodgkins, Glenn A.

2005-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Maine Atlantic Salmon Commission (ASC), began a study in 2003 to examine the timing, magnitude, and duration of summer (June through October) and fall/early winter (September through January) seasonal streamflows of unregulated coastal river basins in Maine and to correlate them to meteorological variables and winter/spring (January through May) seasonal streamflows. This study overlapped the summer seasonal window with the fall/early winter seasonal window to completely bracket the low-streamflow period during July, August, and September between periods of high streamflows in June and October. The ASC is concerned with the impacts of potentially changing meteorological and hydrologic conditions on Atlantic salmon survival. Because winter/spring high streamflows appear to have trended toward earlier dates over the 20th century in coastal Maine, it was hypothesized that the spring/summer recession to low streamflows could have a similar trend toward earlier, and possibly lower, longer lasting, late summer/early fall low streamflows during the 20th century. There were few statistically significant trends in the timing, magnitude, or duration of summer low streamflows for coastal river basins in Maine during the 20th century. The hypothesis that earlier winter/spring high streamflows may result in earlier or lower low streamflows is not supported by the data. No statistically significant trends in the magnitude of total runoff volume during the low-streamflow months of August and September were observed. The magnitude and timing of summer low streamflows correlated with the timing of fall/winter high streamflows and the amount of summer precipitation. The magnitude and timing of summer low streamflows did not correlate with the timing of spring snowmelt runoff. There were few correlations between the magnitude and timing of summer low streamflows and monthly mean surface air temperatures. There were few statistically significant trends in the timing or duration of fall/winter high streamflows for coastal river basins in Maine during the 20th century. The timing of the bulk of fall/winter high streamflows correlated with seasonal precipitation. Earlier fall/winter center-of-volume dates correlated with higher September and October precipitation. In general, little evidence was observed of trends in the magnitude of seasonal runoff volume during fall/winter. The magnitude of fall/winter high streamflows positively correlated with November and December precipitation amounts. There were few correlations between the magnitude and timing of fall/winter high streamflows and monthly mean surface air temperatures.

Miocene vegetation shift and climate change: Evidence from the Siwalik of Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srivastava, Gaurav; Paudayal, Khum N.; Utescher, Torsten; Mehrotra, R. C.

2018-02-01

We reconstruct climate and vegetation applying the Coexistence Approach (CA) methodology on two palaeofloras recovered from the Lower (middle Miocene; 13-11 Ma) and Middle Siwalik (late Miocene; 9.5-6.8 Ma) sediments of Surai Khola section, Nepal. The reconstructed mean annual temperature (MAT) and cold month mean temperature (CMT) show an increasing trend, while warm month mean temperature (WMT) remains nearly the same during the period. The reconstructed precipitation data indicates that the summer monsoon precipitation was nearly the same during the middle and late Miocene, while the winter season precipitation significantly decreased in the late Miocene. The overall precipitation infers increased rainfall seasonality during the late Miocene. The vegetation during the middle Miocene was dominated by wet evergreen taxa, whereas deciduous ones increased significantly during the late Miocene. The reconstructed climate data indicates that high temperature and significantly low precipitation during the winter season (dry season) in the late Miocene might have enhanced forest fire which favoured the expansion of C4 plants over C3 plants during the period. This idea gets further support not only from a recent forest fire in northern India that was caused by the weakening of winter precipitation, but also from the burnt wood recovered from the late Miocene Siwalik sediments of northern India.

ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index for water vapor transport: A forecast tool for atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lavers, David A.; Pappenberger, Florian; Richardson, David S.; Zsoter, Ervin

2016-11-01

In winter, heavy precipitation and floods along the west coasts of midlatitude continents are largely caused by intense water vapor transport (integrated vapor transport (IVT)) within the atmospheric river of extratropical cyclones. This study builds on previous findings that showed that forecasts of IVT have higher predictability than precipitation, by applying and evaluating the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) for IVT in ensemble forecasts during three winters across Europe. We show that the IVT EFI is more able (than the precipitation EFI) to capture extreme precipitation in forecast week 2 during forecasts initialized in a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase; conversely, the precipitation EFI is better during the negative NAO phase and at shorter leads. An IVT EFI example for storm Desmond in December 2015 highlights its potential to identify upcoming hydrometeorological extremes, which may prove useful to the user and forecasting communities.

Assessing the robustness and uncertainties of projected changes in temperature and precipitation in AR4 Global Climate Models over the Arabian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almazroui, Mansour; Saeed, Fahad; Islam, Md. Nazrul; Alkhalaf, A. K.

2016-12-01

An ensemble from different climate projections is essential for attaining robust climate change information in a particular region. To achieve this purpose, the results of an ensemble combining the Global Climate Models data from Couple Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3), have been employed for the Arabian Peninsula region. Different analysis methods comprising spatial plots with robustness analysis, bar plots with likelihood ranges, as well as line plots with likelihood spread along with decadal trend analysis have been carried out at annual as well as seasonal time scales for temperature and precipitation. Results of CMIP3 data for the B1, A1B and A2 scenarios indicate robust changes in temperature and precipitation in the future climate. Spatial plots show a robust summer temperature increase over the whole Peninsula which is higher in the summer season as compared to the winter. The Northern Arabian Peninsula (NAP) region also shows a higher temperature increase in comparison with the Southern Arabian Peninsula (SAP) during the summer season. Moreover the NAP region, which generally comes under the influence of disturbances originating from the Mediterranean Sea region during the winter season, has shown a robust decrease in precipitation during the winter season. Contrarily the SAP region, which remains dry during the winter season and comes under the influence of South Asian Summer Monsoon in the summer season, indicates a robust increase in precipitation during the summer season. This behavior is also obvious from bar plots, which show a gradual decrease (increase) in median precipitation values towards the end of the 21st century for all the three scenarios over the NAP (SAP) region during the winter (summer) season. Moreover, smaller lengths of full as well as likely ranges in the bar plot for NAP (SAP) shows that these precipitation projections are less uncertain as compared to SAP (NAP) for the winter (summer) season. Furthermore from the line plots, a consistent decreasing trend in precipitation (1.35% per decade, significant at 99%) can be observed, while SAP shows an increasing trend in precipitation (1.21% per decade, significant at 99%). Similarly for the case of temperature, a significant (99% level) increase is projected over NAP and SAP regions with values of 0.37 and 0.35 °C per decade respectively. Considering the vulnerability of the region to climate change impacts, these results call for immediate actions in developing the long-term strategies to deal with the adverse impacts of climate change up-to the end of the 21st century at a regional level.

Altered precipitation patterns with a shift from snow to rain in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pavelsky, T. M.; Sobolowski, S.; Kapnick, S. B.; Barnes, J. B.

2011-12-01

Precipitation patterns in mountain environments affect global water resources and major hazards such as floods and landslides. In mid-latitude mountain ranges such as the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California, much of the precipitation falls as snow, which accumulates and acts as a natural reservoir. As in many snowfall-dependent regions, California water infrastructure has been designed to capture warm season snowmelt runoff and transport it to otherwise dry areas where it is needed. Recent studies suggest that anthropogenic climate change is likely to result in a substantial shift from snow to rain in the Sierra Nevada during the 21st century. One mechanism for changing spatial patterns in precipitation that has not received substantial attention arises directly from a phase change associated with winter temperatures rising above freezing with greater frequency. Because the fall speed of rain is greater than snow, it is not advected as far as snow by the prevailing winds. We hypothesize that an extreme change from snow to rain will result in a substantial westward shift in annual precipitation under a warming climate. To test this hypothesis, we conducted two climate simulations over the central Sierra Nevada using the WRF regional climate model version 3.1.1 for the period October 2001 to September 2002. Both simulations used nested domains with grid spacings of 27 km, 9 km, and 3 km. The first simulation is a control run, while the second run is an idealized simulation in which fall speeds for snow and graupel are set to be identical to those of raindrops. Comparison of the two runs suggests that a change from snow to rain would yield substantial changes in the spatial patterns of precipitation. However, these patterns are fully realized only in the 3 km domain. In the 9 km and especially the 27 km domain these patterns are substantially attenuated, likely due to less detailed orographic forcing. In the 3 km domain, precipitation increases substantially on windward slopes west of the principal drainage divide, in some areas by more than 1400 mm (115%). Conversely, the eastern slope of the Sierra Nevada becomes substantially drier, with decreases of as much as 886 mm (67%) in some areas. Overall, in a rain-only environment precipitation increases by an average of 135 mm (12%) on the west side of the divide and decreases by 174 mm (45%) on the east side compared to present-day conditions. While these results represent an idealized, extreme case in which all snow falls at the speed of rain from the same hydrometeor formation locations, they suggest that changes in spatial precipitation patterns associated with altered precipitation phase may have substantial effects on water resources, particularly the distribution of total precipitation across water basins, partition of water supply across collocated aqueducts, ecology, natural hazards such as floods and landslides, and other components of natural and human systems in the Sierra Nevada and the state of California more generally.

Snow hydrology in a general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marshall, Susan; Roads, John O.; Glatzmaier, Gary

1994-01-01

A snow hydrology has been implemented in an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). The snow hydrology consists of parameterizations of snowfall and snow cover fraction, a prognostic calculation of snow temperature, and a model of the snow mass and hydrologic budgets. Previously, only snow albedo had been included by a specified snow line. A 3-year GCM simulation with this now more complete surface hydrology is compared to a previous GCM control run with the specified snow line, as well as with observations. In particular, the authors discuss comparisons of the atmospheric and surface hydrologic budgets and the surface energy budget for U.S. and Canadian areas. The new snow hydrology changes the annual cycle of the surface moisture and energy budgets in the model. There is a noticeable shift in the runoff maximum from winter in the control run to spring in the snow hydrology run. A substantial amount of GCM winter precipitation is now stored in the seasonal snowpack. Snow cover also acts as an important insulating layer between the atmosphere and the ground. Wintertime soil temperatures are much higher in the snow hydrology experiment than in the control experiment. Seasonal snow cover is important for dampening large fluctuations in GCM continental skin temperature during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Snow depths and snow extent show good agreement with observations over North America. The geographic distribution of maximum depths is not as well simulated by the model due, in part, to the coarse resolution of the model. The patterns of runoff are qualitatively and quantitatively similar to observed patterns of streamflow averaged over the continental United States. The seasonal cycles of precipitation and evaporation are also reasonably well simulated by the model, although their magnitudes are larger than is observed. This is due, in part, to a cold bias in this model, which results in a dry model atmosphere and enhances the hydrologic cycle everywhere.

Winter precipitation effect in a mid-latitude temperature-limited environment: the case of common juniper at high elevation in the Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pellizzari, Elena; Pividori, Mario; Carrer, Marco

2014-10-01

Common juniper (Juniperus communis L.) is by far the most widespread conifer in the world. However, tree-ring research dealing with this species is still scarce, mainly due to the difficulty in crossdating associated with the irregular stem shape with strip-bark growth form in older individuals and the high number of missing and wedging rings. Given that many different species of the same genus have been successfully used in tree-ring investigations and proved to be reliable climate proxies, this study aims to (i) test the possibility to successfully apply dendrochronological techniques on common juniper growing above the treeline and (ii) verify the climate sensitivity of the species with special regard to winter precipitation, a climatic factor that generally does not affect tree-ring growth in all Alpine high-elevation tree species. Almost 90 samples have been collected in three sites in the central and eastern Alps, all between 2100 and 2400 m in elevation. Despite cross-dating difficulties, we were able to build a reliable chronology for each site, each spanning over 200 years. Climate-growth relationships computed over the last century highlight that juniper growth is mainly controlled by the amount of winter precipitation. The high variability of the climate-growth associations among sites, corresponds well to the low spatial dependence of this meteorological factor. Fairly long chronologies and the presence of a significant precipitation signal open up the possibility to reconstruct past winter precipitation.

Winter precipitation particle size distribution measurement by Multi-Angle Snowflake Camera

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Gwo-Jong; Kleinkort, Cameron; Bringi, V. N.; Notaroš, Branislav M.

2017-12-01

From the radar meteorology viewpoint, the most important properties for quantitative precipitation estimation of winter events are 3D shape, size, and mass of precipitation particles, as well as the particle size distribution (PSD). In order to measure these properties precisely, optical instruments may be the best choice. The Multi-Angle Snowflake Camera (MASC) is a relatively new instrument equipped with three high-resolution cameras to capture the winter precipitation particle images from three non-parallel angles, in addition to measuring the particle fall speed using two pairs of infrared motion sensors. However, the results from the MASC so far are usually presented as monthly or seasonally, and particle sizes are given as histograms, no previous studies have used the MASC for a single storm study, and no researchers use MASC to measure the PSD. We propose the methodology for obtaining the winter precipitation PSD measured by the MASC, and present and discuss the development, implementation, and application of the new technique for PSD computation based on MASC images. Overall, this is the first study of the MASC-based PSD. We present PSD MASC experiments and results for segments of two snow events to demonstrate the performance of our PSD algorithm. The results show that the self-consistency of the MASC measured single-camera PSDs is good. To cross-validate PSD measurements, we compare MASC mean PSD (averaged over three cameras) with the collocated 2D Video Disdrometer, and observe good agreements of the two sets of results.

Millennial-scale records of North American Monsoon in time and space during the last glacial period: reconstructions from arid northern Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, P.; Quiroz-Jiménez, D.; Charles-Polo, M.; Lozano-Santacruz, R.

2013-05-01

The arid northern Mexico is part of the Sonora and Chihuahua Deserts and both the deserts belong to the North American Desert system. The North American Monsoon (NAM) or Mexican Monsoon refers to the system that brings summer precipitation to arid northern Mexico and southwestern USA. It contributes ca. 70-80% of total annual precipitation along the western slopes of the Sierra Madre Occidental (northern Mexico) and ca. 40-50% of total precipitation in Arizona and New Mexico (southwest USA). High-resolution geochemical data from lacustrine deposits located between 23°N and 31°N (paleolakes La Salada, Babicora and San Felipe) provide spatio-temporal and millennial-scale paleohydrological records related to the dynamics of summer precipitation as well as westerly winter storms over the last glacial period. The inverse relationship between proxy records of runoff into lacustrine basins of northern Mexico and winter precipitation over the southwestern USA indicate that the westerly winter storms had minimal influence south of 30°N and the paleohydrological changes are mainly summer precipitation controlled. The variation in summer season precipitation between 20 and 60 cal. kyr BP was driven by long term changes in summer insolation. During an interval of lower summer insolation (i.e. >60 cal. kyr BP), the higher summer precipitation could be related to the NAM expansion as a result of reduced north hemisphere ice sheets. On a millennial-scale, the region received more than average precipitation during the warm interstadials and vice versa.

A teleconnection between subtropical convection and higher latitude wave activity in the Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cruz, Antonio DeJesus

Rossby waves are waves in potential vorticity that propagate along the extratropical tropopause and can be impacted by the advection of low-PV air originating from the subtropics. In this study, the subtropical precipitation influence on the extratropical Rossby wave activity during the Atlantic winter season is investigated for a ten year period. Using both TRMM and TIGGE 12-Hr forecasted precipitation data, heavy precipitation events were identified near the footprints regions of warm conveyor belts in the northern Atlantic, specifically in the Gulf of Mexico and Bermuda region. The extratropical Rossby waves were then analyzed using PV on a 320K surface. By use of wavelet transforms, the amplitude of the Rossby waves were analyzed as a function of wavelength and longitude. The interaction between a single heavy precipitation event and the extratropical Rossby waves was examined for the days preceding and the week following the event. A climatological analysis of heavy precipitation events was conducted on the winter seasons from 2006 - 2015. Case study and climatological analysis identified the following: A ridge in the Northern Atlantic undergoes amplification downstream of the heavy precipitation event in the days following the event. A southerly flow, likely associated with a warm conveyor belt, connects the region of the heavy precipitation event and the extratropical tropopause. The interaction was most prominent during the late winter season and during the heaviest of precipitation events. The teleconnection identified in this study highlights a mechanism by which cloud-scale subtropical precipitation is connected to synoptic scale extratropical dynamics in the Atlantic.

Norwegian fjord sediments reveal NAO related winter temperature and precipitation changes of the past 2800 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faust, Johan; Fabian, Karl; Giraudeau, Jacques; Knies, Jochen

2016-04-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the leading mode of atmospheric circulation variability in the North Atlantic region. Associated shifts of storm tracks, precipitation and temperature patterns affect energy supply and demand, fisheries and agricultural, as well as marine and terrestrial ecological dynamics. Long-term NAO reconstructions are crucial to better understand NAO variability in its response to climate forcing factors, and assess predictability and possible shifts associated with ongoing climate change. Fjord deposits have a great potential for providing high-resolution sedimentary records that reflect local terrestrial and marine processes and, therefore, offer unique opportunities for the investigation of sedimentological and geochemical climatically induced processes. A recent study of instrumental time series revealed NAO as main factor for a strong relation between winter temperature, precipitation and river discharge in central Norway over the past 50 years. Here we use the gained knowledge to establish the first high resolution NAO proxy record from marine sediments. By comparing geochemical measurements from a short sediment core with instrumental data we show that marine primary productivity proxies are sensitive to NAO changes. Conditioned on a stationary relation between our climate proxy and the NAO we establish the first high resolution NAO proxy record (NAO-TFJ) from marine sediments covering the past 2,800 years. The NAO-TFJ shows distinct co-variability with climate changes over Greenland, solar activity and Northern Hemisphere glacier dynamics as well as climatically associated paleo-demographic trends.

[Temporal and spatial variation of the optimal sowing dates of summer maize based on both statistical and processes models in Henan Province, China].

PubMed

Tan, Mei-xiu; Wang, Jing; Yu, Wei-dong; He, Di; Wang, Na; Dai, Tong; Sun, Yan; Tang, Jian-zhao; Chang, Qing

2015-12-01

Sowing date is one of the vital factors for determining crop yield. In this study, temporal and spatial variation of optimal sowing date of summer maize was analyzed by statistical model and the APSIM-Maize model in Henan Province, China. The results showed that average summer maize optimal sowing dates ranged from May 30 to June 13 across Henan Province with earlier sowing before June 8 in the southern part and later sowing from June 4 to June 13 in the northern part. The optimal sowing date in mountain area of western Henan Province should be around May 30. Late-maturing variety Nongda 108 should be planted at least two days earlier than middle-maturing variety Danyu 13. Under climate warming background, maize sowing should be postponed for at least 3 days if maize harvesting date could be delayed for a week. It was proposed that sowing should be delayed for about a week for a yearly less precipitation pattern while advanced for about a week for a yearly more precipitation pattern compared to the normal one. Across Henan Province, the optimal sowing dates of summer maize showed no significant change trend in 1971-2010, while the potential sowing period had been extended for some regions, such as south from Zhumadian, Yichuan, Nei-xiang and Nanyang in the middle part of Henan, Linzhou in the northern Henan and Sanmenxia in the western Henan, as a result from advanced maturity of winter wheat due to increasing temperature and winter wheat cultivar change. Optimal sowing dates at 76.7% of the study stations showed no significant difference between the two methods. It was recommended that the northern Henan should sow maize immediately after any rainfall and replant afterward, while the southern Henan should not sow maize until that there were valid precipitation (3.9 mm and 8.3 mm for upper south and south parts, respectively) during sowing period, both required enough precipitation during key water requirement period and optimal temperature during grain-filling period.

Did Climate Change Cause the 2012-2014 California Drought?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, Y.; Clark, E.; Xiao, M.; Nijssen, B.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2014-12-01

California has experienced severe drought over the last three years, with especially deficient winter precipitation and mountain snowpack in 2013-2014. While the severity of California's water crisis this year is not in question, the causes of the drought are less clear, and there has been debate as to whether human-induced climate change is at least in part a cause of anomalously low winter precipitation (P) and snow water equivalent (SWE) this year, or whether the conditions are simply the result of natural variability that has been manifested in previous severe droughts in California. To provide more scientific insight to this question, we reconstructed, using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, SWE and runoff from 1920 to 2014 at a spatial resolution of 1/16 degree over the Sierra Nevada range of California. We forced the VIC model with a temporally consistent set of index precipitation and temperature stations that are also used in the University of Washington's Drought Monitoring System for the West Coast Region (http://www.hydro.washington.edu/forecast/monitor_cali/index.shtml). We carried out trend analysis and examined cumulative probability for accumulated winter precipitation, SWE on Apr 1, annual, spring and winter runoff, average winter temperature (T) and SWE/P fraction. We also did correlation analysis between SWE and P as well as SWE and T. In addition, we used detrended temperature data to force the VIC model in order to analyze the role of climate change in SWE and runoff. Our results show that while the decreasing trend in SWE and earlier runoff peak in the year are related to long-term warming climate, there is no significant trend in winter P and there are lots of variability in the record of all variables. While this year's anomalously warm weather might have exacerbated the ongoing 3-year drought (and winter 2013-14 in particular), we conclude that natural variability is the main cause.

Sensitivity of crop cover to climate variability: insights from two Indian agro-ecoregions.

PubMed

Mondal, Pinki; Jain, Meha; DeFries, Ruth S; Galford, Gillian L; Small, Christopher

2015-01-15

Crop productivity in India varies greatly with inter-annual climate variability and is highly dependent on monsoon rainfall and temperature. The sensitivity of yields to future climate variability varies with crop type, access to irrigation and other biophysical and socio-economic factors. To better understand sensitivities to future climate, this study focuses on agro-ecological subregions in Central and Western India that span a range of crops, irrigation, biophysical conditions and socioeconomic characteristics. Climate variability is derived from remotely-sensed data products, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM - precipitation) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS - temperature). We examined green-leaf phenologies as proxy for crop productivity using the MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) from 2000 to 2012. Using both monsoon and winter growing seasons, we assessed phenological sensitivity to inter-annual variability in precipitation and temperature patterns. Inter-annual EVI phenology anomalies ranged from -25% to 25%, with some highly anomalous values up to 200%. Monsoon crop phenology in the Central India site is highly sensitive to climate, especially the timing of the start and end of the monsoon and intensity of precipitation. In the Western India site, monsoon crop phenology is less sensitive to precipitation variability, yet shows considerable fluctuations in monsoon crop productivity across the years. Temperature is critically important for winter productivity across a range of crop and management types, such that irrigation might not provide a sufficient buffer against projected temperature increases. Better access to weather information and usage of climate-resilient crop types would play pivotal role in maintaining future productivity. Effective strategies to adapt to projected climate changes in the coming decades would also need to be tailored to regional biophysical and socio-economic conditions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simple Indices Provide Insight to Climate Attributes Delineating the Geographic Range of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) Prior to Worldwide Invasion.

PubMed

Mogi, Motoyoshi; Armbruster, Peter; Tuno, Nobuko; Campos, Raúl; Eritja, Roger

2015-07-01

Aedes albopictus (Skuse) has expanded its distribution worldwide during the past decades. Despite attempts to explain and predict its geographic occurrence, analyses of the distribution of Ae. albopictus in the context of broad climatic regions (biomes) has not been performed. We analyzed climate conditions at its distribution sites in the range before the worldwide invasions (from the easternmost Hawaii through westernmost Madagascar) by using thermal and aridity-humidity indices descriptive of major biomes. A significant advantage of this approach is that it uses simple indices clearly related to the population dynamics of Ae. albopictus. Although Ae. albopictus has been regarded as a forest species preferring humid climate, in areas with significant human habitation, the distribution sites extended from the perhumid, rain forest zone to the semiarid, steppe zone. This pattern was common from the tropics through the temperate zone. Across the distribution range, there was no seasonal discordance between temperature and precipitation; at sites where winter prevents Ae. albopictus reproduction (monthly means<10°C), precipitation was concentrated in warm months (>10°C) under the Asian summer monsoon. Absence of the species in northern and eastern coastal Australia and eastern coastal Africa was not attributable solely to climate conditions. However, Asia west of the summer monsoon range was climatically unsuitable because of low precipitation throughout the year or in warm months favorable to reproduction (concentration of precipitation in winter). We hypothesized that Ae. albopictus originated in continental Asia under the monsoon climate with distinct dry seasons and hot, wet summer, enabling rapid population growth. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Climate scenarios for California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cayan, Daniel R.; Maurer, Ed; Dettinger, Mike; Tyree, Mary; Hayhoe, Katharine; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, Phil; Santer, Ben

2006-01-01

In all of the simulations, most precipitation continues to occur in winter, with virtually all derived from North Pacific winter storms. Relatively little change in overall precipitation is projected. Climate warming has a profound influence in diminishing snow accumulations, because there is more rain and less snow, and earlier snowmelt. These snow losses increase as the warming increases, so that they are most severe under climate changes projected by the more sensitive model with the higher GHG emissions.

Trend analysis of precipitation in Jharkhand State, India. Investigating precipitation variability in Jharkhand State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandniha, Surendra Kumar; Meshram, Sarita Gajbhiye; Adamowski, Jan Franklin; Meshram, Chandrashekhar

2017-10-01

Jharkhand is one of the eastern states of India which has an agriculture-based economy. Uncertain and erratic distribution of precipitation as well as a lack of state water resources planning is the major limitation to crop growth in the region. In this study, the spatial and temporal variability in precipitation in the state was examined using a monthly precipitation time series of 111 years (1901-2011) from 18 meteorological stations. Autocorrelation and Mann-Kendall/modified Mann-Kendall tests were utilized to detect possible trends, and the Theil and Sen slope estimator test was used to determine the magnitude of change over the entire time series. The most probable change year (change point) was detected using the Pettitt-Mann-Whitney test, and the entire time series was sub-divided into two parts: before and after the change point. Arc-Map 9.3 software was utilized to assess the spatial patterns of the trends over the entire state. Annual precipitation exhibited a decreasing trend in 5 out of 18 stations during the whole period. For annual, monsoon and winter periods of precipitation, the slope test indicated a decreasing trend for all stations during 1901-2011. The highest variability was observed in post-monsoon precipitation (77.87 %) and the lowest variability was observed in the annual series (15.76 %) over the 111 years. An increasing trend in precipitation in the state was found during the period 1901-1949, which was reversed during the subsequent period (1950-2011).

The Relative Importance of Convective and Trade-wind Orographic Precipitation to Streamflow in the Luquillo Mountains, Eastern Puerto Rico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scholl, M. A.; Shanley, J. B.; Occhi, M.; Scatena, F. N.

2012-12-01

Like many mountainous areas in the tropics, watersheds in the Luquillo Mountains of Puerto Rico (18.3° N) have abundant rainfall and stream discharge, but relatively little storage capacity. Therefore, the water supply is vulnerable to drought and water availability may be affected by projected changes in regional temperature and atmospheric dynamics due to global warming. To help determine the links between climate and water availability, precipitation patterns were analyzed, and stable-isotope signatures of precipitation from different seasonal weather systems were established to identify those that are most important in maintaining streamflow and groundwater recharge. Stable isotope data include cloud water, rainfall, throughfall, streamflow, and groundwater from the Rio Mameyes and Rio Icacos/ Rio Blanco watersheds. Precipitation inputs have a wide range of stable isotope values, from fog/cloud water with δ2H and δ18O averaging +3.2‰, -1.74‰ respectively, to tropical storm rain with values as low as -154‰, -20.4‰. Spatial and temporal patterns of water isotopic values on this Caribbean island are different than higher latitude, continental watersheds. The data exhibit a 'reverse seasonality', with higher isotopic values in winter and lower values in summer; and stable isotope values of stream water do not decrease as expected with increasing altitude, because of cloud water input. Rain isotopic values vary predictably with local and mesoscale weather patterns and correlate strongly with cloud altitude. This correlation allows us to assign isotopic signatures to different sources of precipitation, and to investigate which climate patterns contribute to streamflow and groundwater recharge. At a measurement site at 615 m in the Luquillo Mountains, the average length of time between rain events was 15 h, and 45% of the rain events were <2 mm, reflecting the frequent small rain events of the trade-wind orographic rainfall weather pattern. Long-term average streamflow isotopic composition indicates a disproportionately large contribution of this trade-wind precipitation to streamflow, highlighting the importance of this climate pattern to the hydrology of the watersheds. Isotopic composition of groundwater suggests a slightly higher proportion of convective precipitation, but still smaller than in total rainfall. Hydrograph separation experiments yielded information on stormflow characteristics, with quantification of contributing sources determined from water isotopes and solute chemistry. The evidence that intense convective rain events run off and light trade-wind showers appear to contribute much of the baseflow indicates that the area may undergo a change in water supply if the trade-wind orographic precipitation dynamics in the Caribbean are affected by future climate change.

Geographic patterns and dynamics of Alaskan climate interpolated from a sparse station record

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fleming, Michael D.; Chapin, F. Stuart; Cramer, W.; Hufford, Gary L.; Serreze, Mark C.

2000-01-01

Data from a sparse network of climate stations in Alaska were interpolated to provide 1-km resolution maps of mean monthly temperature and precipitation-variables that are required at high spatial resolution for input into regional models of ecological processes and resource management. The interpolation model is based on thin-plate smoothing splines, which uses the spatial data along with a digital elevation model to incorporate local topography. The model provides maps that are consistent with regional climatology and with patterns recognized by experienced weather forecasters. The broad patterns of Alaskan climate are well represented and include latitudinal and altitudinal trends in temperature and precipitation and gradients in continentality. Variations within these broad patterns reflect both the weakening and reduction in frequency of low-pressure centres in their eastward movement across southern Alaska during the summer, and the shift of the storm tracks into central and northern Alaska in late summer. Not surprisingly, apparent artifacts of the interpolated climate occur primarily in regions with few or no stations. The interpolation model did not accurately represent low-level winter temperature inversions that occur within large valleys and basins. Along with well-recognized climate patterns, the model captures local topographic effects that would not be depicted using standard interpolation techniques. This suggests that similar procedures could be used to generate high-resolution maps for other high-latitude regions with a sparse density of data.

Sustainability of winter tourism in a changing climate over Kashmir Himalaya.

PubMed

Dar, Reyaz Ahmad; Rashid, Irfan; Romshoo, Shakil Ahmad; Marazi, Asif

2014-04-01

Mountain areas are sensitive to climate change. Implications of climate change can be seen in less snow, receding glaciers, increasing temperatures, and decreasing precipitation. Climate change is also a severe threat to snow-related winter sports such as skiing, snowboarding, and cross-country skiing. The change in climate will put further pressure on the sensitive environment of high mountains. Therefore, in this study, an attempt has been made to know the impact of climate change on the snow precipitation, water resources, and winter tourism in the two famous tourist resorts of the Kashmir Valley. Our findings show that winters are getting prolonged with little snow falls on account of climate change. The average minimum and maximum temperatures are showing statistically significant increasing trends for winter months. The precipitation is showing decreasing trends in both the regions. A considerable area in these regions remains under the snow and glacier cover throughout the year especially during the winter and spring seasons. However, time series analysis of LandSat MODIS images using Normalized Difference Snow Index shows a decreasing trend in snow cover in both the regions from past few years. Similarly, the stream discharge, comprising predominantly of snow- and glacier-melt, is showing a statistically significant declining trend despite the melting of these glaciers. The predicted futuristic trends of temperature from Predicting Regional Climates for Impact Studies regional climate model are showing an increase which may enhance snow-melting in the near future posing a serious threat to the sustainability of winter tourism in the region. Hence, it becomes essential to monitor the changes in temperature and snow cover depletion in these basins in order to evaluate their effect on the winter tourism and water resources in the region.

Relations between winter climatic variables and April streamflows in New England and implications for summer streamflows

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Dudley, Robert W.; Schalk, Luther F.

2012-01-01

A period of much below normal streamflow in southern New England during April 2012 raised concerns that a long-term period of drought could evolve through late spring and summer, leading to potential water availability issues. To understand better the relations between winter climatic variables and April streamflows, April streamflows from 31 streamflow gages in New England that drain relatively natural watersheds were tested for year-to-year correlation with winter precipitation and air temperature from nearby meteorological sites. Higher winter (December through March) precipitation is associated with higher April streamflows at many gages in northern and central New England. This implies that snowpack accumulation is an important mechanism for winter water storage and subsequently important for spring streamflows in this area. Higher March air temperatures are associated with lower April streamflows at many gages in central and southern New England, likely because the majority of snowmelt runoff occurs before April in warm years. A warm March 2012 contributed to early snowmelt runoff in New England and to much below normal April streamflows in southern New England. However, no strong relation was found between historical April streamflows and late-spring or summer streamflows in New England. The lack of a strong relation implies that summer precipitation, rather than spring conditions, controls summer streamflows.

Seasonal variation of the water exchange through the Bohai Strait

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Z.

2016-02-01

Seasonal variations of the Lubei coastal current off the northern Shandong Peninsula and water exchange between the Bohai and Yellow seas were analyzed, based on current and salinity data measured mainly in 2006, 2007 and 2012. In winter and autumn, the Lubei coastal current flows eastward through the Bohai Strait before ultimately heading southward into the waters off Chengshantou in the east of the Shandong Peninsula. In spring and summer, the Lubei coastal current disappears. There are three kinds of patterns of water exchange between the Bohai and Yellow seas. The first is the "inflow in the north and outflow in the south of the Bohai Strait" in winter and autumn, which is regarded as the permanent pattern during the whole year from literature. The second is "outflow in the surface layer and inflow in the underlying layer" in summer, where the outflow is significantly greater than the inflow related with increased runoff and precipitation. The third is "inflow together in the southern and northern channels of the Bohai Strait" in spring. The low mean sea level and N-S sea-level incline formed in winter in the Bohai Sea lose their dynamic balance because of the reversal of the northeast monsoon in spring. This forces the water from the northern Yellow Sea into the Bohai Sea via the southern and northern channels of the Bohai Strait, which constitutes the largest net inflow of the four seasons.

Remarkable link between projected uncertainties of Arctic sea-ice decline and winter Eurasian climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheung, Hoffman H. N.; Keenlyside, Noel; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Zhou, Wen

2018-01-01

We identify that the projected uncertainty of the pan-Arctic sea-ice concentration (SIC) is strongly coupled with the Eurasian circulation in the boreal winter (December-March; DJFM), based on a singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis of the forced response of 11 CMIP5 models. In the models showing a stronger sea-ice decline, the Polar cell becomes weaker and there is an anomalous increase in the sea level pressure (SLP) along 60°N, including the Urals-Siberia region and the Iceland low region. There is an accompanying weakening of both the midlatitude westerly winds and the Ferrell cell, where the SVD signals are also related to anomalous sea surface temperature warming in the midlatitude North Atlantic. In the Mediterranean region, the anomalous circulation response shows a decreasing SLP and increasing precipitation. The anomalous SLP responses over the Euro-Atlantic region project on to the negative North Atlantic Oscillation-like pattern. Altogether, pan-Arctic SIC decline could strongly impact the winter Eurasian climate, but we should be cautious about the causality of their linkage.

The subtle role of climate change on population genetic structure in Canada lynx.

PubMed

Row, Jeffrey R; Wilson, Paul J; Gomez, Celine; Koen, Erin L; Bowman, Jeff; Thornton, Daniel; Murray, Dennis L

2014-07-01

Anthropogenically driven climatic change is expected to reshape global patterns of species distribution and abundance. Given recent links between genetic variation and environmental patterns, climate change may similarly impact genetic population structure, but we lack information on the spatial and mechanistic underpinnings of genetic-climate associations. Here, we show that current genetic variability of Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) is strongly correlated with a winter climate gradient (i.e. increasing snow depth and winter precipitation from west-to-east) across the Pacific-North American (PNO) to North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) climatic systems. This relationship was stronger than isolation by distance and not explained by landscape variables or changes in abundance. Thus, these patterns suggest that individuals restricted dispersal across the climate boundary, likely in the absence of changes in habitat quality. We propose habitat imprinting on snow conditions as one possible explanation for this unusual phenomenon. Coupling historical climate data with future projections, we also found increasingly diverging snow conditions between the two climate systems. Based on genetic simulations using projected climate data (2041-2070), we predicted that this divergence could lead to a threefold increase in genetic differentiation, potentially leading to isolated east-west populations of lynx in North America. Our results imply that subtle genetic structure can be governed by current climate and that substantive genetic differentiation and related ecological divergence may arise from changing climate patterns. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Predictable interregional movements by female northern pintails during winter

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cox, R.R.; Afton, A.D.

2000-01-01

Factors influencing initiation of regional and interregional movements by nonbreeding ducks are poorly understood, especially during winter. During winters 1990-1991 through 1992-1993, we radiotagged 347 female Northern Pintails (Anas acuta) in southwestern Louisiana and monitored their movements to three regions: (1) the Gulf Coast Region of Louisiana and Texas (outside of southwestern Louisiana), (2) the Rice Prairie Region of Texas, and (3) the Mississippi Alluvial Valley. We found that adult females were 1.9 times more likely than were immatures to emigrate from southwestern Louisiana during winter. During winters 1990-1991 and 1991-1992, females were more likely to emigrate during stormy than during fair weather, whereas they were more likely to emigrate during fair weather in 1992-1993. Females were more likely to emigrate during duck-hunting seasons than during nonhunting seasons, regardless of weather. Daily emigration probabilities did not differ in relation to body condition when released (body mass adjusted for body size) or to number of previous emigration events. Each winter, large numbers of females consistently moved from the Gulf Coast Region to areas with abundant rice (Oryza sativa) agriculture within the Mississippi Alluvial Valley. We conclude that destination of interregional movements by this population of Northern Pintails is highly predictable, and that initiation of such movements is influenced by female age and long-term winter precipitation patterns in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley. Furthermore, timing of these movements is predictable, based not on calendar date, but rather on duck-hunting seasons and, usually, the environmental cues to habitat availability provided by stormy weather.

The Consequences of Precipitation Seasonality for Mediterranean-Ecosystem Vegetation of South Africa.

PubMed

Cramer, Michael D; Hoffman, M Timm

2015-01-01

Globally, mediterranean-climate ecosystem vegetation has converged on an evergreen, sclerophyllous and shrubby growth form. The particular aspects of mediterranean-climate regions that contribute to this convergence include summer droughts and relatively nutrient-poor soils. We hypothesised that winter-precipitation implies stressful summer droughts and leaches soils due to greater water availability (i.e. balance between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration; P-PET) during cold periods. We conducted a comparative analysis of normalised difference vegetation indices (NDVI) and edaphic and climate properties across the biomes of South Africa. NDVI was strongly correlated with both precipitation and P-PET (r2 = 0.8). There was no evidence, however, that winter-precipitation reduces NDVI in comparison to similar amounts of summer-precipitation. Base saturation (BS), a measure of soil leaching was, however, negatively related to P-PET (r2 = 0.64). This led to an interaction between P-PET and BS in determining NDVI, indicating the existence of a trade-off between water availability and soil nutrients that enables NDVI to increase with precipitation, despite negative consequences for soil nutrient availability. The mechanism of this trade-off is suggested to be that water increases nutrient accessibility. This implies that along with nutrient-depauperate geologies and long periods of time since glaciation, the winter-precipitation may have contributed to the highly leached status of the soils. Since many of the ecophysiological characteristics of mediterranean-ecosystem flora are associated with low nutrient availabilities (e.g. evergreen foliage, sclerophylly, cluster roots), we conclude that mediterranean-climates promote convergence of growth-forms in these regions through high leaching capacity.

The Consequences of Precipitation Seasonality for Mediterranean-Ecosystem Vegetation of South Africa

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Globally, mediterranean-climate ecosystem vegetation has converged on an evergreen, sclerophyllous and shrubby growth form. The particular aspects of mediterranean-climate regions that contribute to this convergence include summer droughts and relatively nutrient-poor soils. We hypothesised that winter-precipitation implies stressful summer droughts and leaches soils due to greater water availability (i.e. balance between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration; P–PET) during cold periods. We conducted a comparative analysis of normalised difference vegetation indices (NDVI) and edaphic and climate properties across the biomes of South Africa. NDVI was strongly correlated with both precipitation and P–PET (r2 = 0.8). There was no evidence, however, that winter-precipitation reduces NDVI in comparison to similar amounts of summer-precipitation. Base saturation (BS), a measure of soil leaching was, however, negatively related to P–PET (r2 = 0.64). This led to an interaction between P–PET and BS in determining NDVI, indicating the existence of a trade-off between water availability and soil nutrients that enables NDVI to increase with precipitation, despite negative consequences for soil nutrient availability. The mechanism of this trade-off is suggested to be that water increases nutrient accessibility. This implies that along with nutrient-depauperate geologies and long periods of time since glaciation, the winter-precipitation may have contributed to the highly leached status of the soils. Since many of the ecophysiological characteristics of mediterranean-ecosystem flora are associated with low nutrient availabilities (e.g. evergreen foliage, sclerophylly, cluster roots), we conclude that mediterranean-climates promote convergence of growth-forms in these regions through high leaching capacity. PMID:26650081

Snow drought in western U.S. mountains: proximate causes, regional differences, and implications for streamflow and forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harpold, A. A.; Dettinger, M. D.; Rajagopal, S.

2017-12-01

Although drought is a recurring problem, recent extreme snow droughts have refocused attention on the interaction of meteorological extremes and snow accumulation in mountains. Only recently have two distinct types of snow drought been defined that help to differentiate a variety of water management implications. Dry snow drought is caused by deficits of winter precipitation and resulting low snow accumulation. Warm snow drought is characterized by temperature extremes causing faster and earlier snowmelt and/or shifts from snow to rain. Here we use 462 Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) sites in the western U.S. to quantify snow drought as 75% of the long-term average snow water equivalent (SWE). We further subdivide dry snow droughts using SWE to winter precipitation (SWE/P) ratios that were near normal from warm snow droughts where SWE/P ratios were below normal and experienced SWE losses (warm-melt) or received unusual amounts of winter rain (warm-rain snow drought). Using this method we show clear regional patterns in the type and frequency of snow drought. Warm snow droughts on April 1st were most common in all but the highest elevations of the Rocky Mountains. The middle Rocky Mountains sites also experienced less frequent snow drought than the maritime and southern mountains. Warm-melt snow droughts were the primary cause in the Cascade Mountains and the southwestern sites, with only the Sierra Nevada and Wasatch mountains showing consistent warm-rain snow drought. These regional differences limited the predictability of snow drought with simple models of temperature and precipitation. We will discuss the effects of snow drought type and magnitude on streamflow forecasting skill using empirical relationships developed by water management agencies. We expect these types of snow drought to differentially affect streamflow regime and its predictability, as well as forest growth and mortality during and following drought.

[Effects of irrigation amount and stage on water consumption characteristics and grain yield of wheat].

PubMed

Wang, De-Mei; Yu, Zhen-Wen

2008-09-01

Field experiment was conducted in 2005 -2007 to study the effects of irrigation amount and stage on the water consumption characteristics, grain yield, and water use efficiency of wheat. The results showed that the variation coefficient of the proportion of soil water consumption amount to total water consumption amount was significantly higher than that of precipitation to total water consumption amount, suggesting the relatively wide regulation range of soil water use efficiency. The proportions of irrigation amount, precipitation, and soil water consumption amount to total water consumption amount were 31.0%, 38.9%, and 30.1% in treatment W3 (irrigated at jointing and flowering stages, with total irrigation amount of 120 mm), and 51.7%, 32.4%, and 15.9% in treatment W5 (irrigated before winter and at jointing, flowering and grain-filling stages, with total irrigation amount of 240 mm), respectively, indicating that treatment W3 had a significantly higher proportion of soil water consumption amount to total water consumption amount than treatment W5. Though treatments W2 (irrigated before winter and at jointing stage) and W3 (irrigated at jointing and flowering stages) had the same irrigation amount (120 mm), the water consumption amount during the period from flowering to maturing was significantly higher in W3 than in W2, while the water consumption amount before jointing was significantly lower in W3 than in W2. The water consumption pattern in treatment W3 was in agreement with the water requirement pattern of wheat, which was the physiological basis of high water use efficiency.

Precipitation Impacts of a Shrinking Arctic Sea Ice Cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroeve, J. C.; Frei, A.; Gong, G.; Ghatak, D.; Robinson, D. A.; Kindig, D.

2009-12-01

Since the beginning of the modern satellite record in October 1978, the extent of Arctic sea ice has declined in all months, with the strongest downward trend at the end of the melt season in September. Recently the September trends have accelerated. Through 2001, the extent of September sea ice was decreasing at a rate of -7 per cent per decade. By 2006, the rate of decrease had risen to -8.9 per cent per decade. In September 2007, Arctic sea ice extent fell to its lowest level recorded, 23 per cent below the previous record set in 2005, boosting the downward trend to -10.7 per cent per decade. Ice extent in September 2008 was the second lowest in the satellite record. Including 2008, the trend in September sea ice extent stands at -11.8 percent per decade. Compared to the 1970s, September ice extent has retreated by 40 per cent. Summer 2009 looks to repeat the anomalously low ice conditions that characterized the last couple of years. Scientists have long expected that a shrinking Arctic sea ice cover will lead to strong warming of the overlying atmosphere, and as a result, affect atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns. Recent results show clear evidence of Arctic warming linked to declining ice extent, yet observational evidence for responses of atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns is just beginning to emerge. Rising air temperatures should lead to an increase in the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere, with the potential to impact autumn precipitation. Although climate models predict a hemispheric wide decrease in snow cover as atmospheric concentrations of GHGs increase, increased precipitation, particular in autumn and winter may result as the Arctic transitions towards a seasonally ice free state. In this study we use atmospheric reanalysis data and a cyclone tracking algorithm to investigate the influence of recent extreme ice loss years on precipitation patterns in the Arctic and the Northern Hemisphere. Results show enhanced cyclone associated precipitation in autumn over Siberia for anomalously low ice years compared with anomalously high ice years along with a strengthening of the North Atlantic Storm track.

Future increases in Arctic precipitation linked to local evaporation and sea-ice retreat.

PubMed

Bintanja, R; Selten, F M

2014-05-22

Precipitation changes projected for the end of the twenty-first century show an increase of more than 50 per cent in the Arctic regions. This marked increase, which is among the highest globally, has previously been attributed primarily to enhanced poleward moisture transport from lower latitudes. Here we use state-of-the-art global climate models to show that the projected increases in Arctic precipitation over the twenty-first century, which peak in late autumn and winter, are instead due mainly to strongly intensified local surface evaporation (maximum in winter), and only to a lesser degree due to enhanced moisture inflow from lower latitudes (maximum in late summer and autumn). Moreover, we show that the enhanced surface evaporation results mainly from retreating winter sea ice, signalling an amplified Arctic hydrological cycle. This demonstrates that increases in Arctic precipitation are firmly linked to Arctic warming and sea-ice decline. As a result, the Arctic mean precipitation sensitivity (4.5 per cent increase per degree of temperature warming) is much larger than the global value (1.6 to 1.9 per cent per kelvin). The associated seasonally varying increase in Arctic precipitation is likely to increase river discharge and snowfall over ice sheets (thereby affecting global sea level), and could even affect global climate through freshening of the Arctic Ocean and subsequent modulations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

Atmospheric deposition of mercury in central Poland: Sources and seasonal trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siudek, Patrycja; Kurzyca, Iwona; Siepak, Jerzy

2016-03-01

Atmospheric deposition of total mercury was studied at two sites in central Poland, between April 2013 and October 2014. Hg in rainwater (bulk deposition) was analyzed in relation to meteorological parameters and major ions (H+, NO3-, Cl-, SO42 -) in order to investigate seasonal variation, identify sources and determine factors affecting atmospheric Hg chemistry and deposition. Total mercury concentrations varied between 1.24 and 22.1 ng L- 1 at the urban sampling site (Poznań) and between 0.57 and 18.3 ng L- 1 in the woodland protected area (Jeziory), with quite similar mean values of 6.96 and 6.37 ng L- 1, respectively. Mercury in precipitation exhibited lower spatial variability within the study domain (urban/forest transect) than the concentrations determined during other similar observations, reflecting the predominant influence of the same local sources. In our study, a significant seasonal pattern of Hg deposition was observed at both sampling sites, with higher and more variable concentrations of Hg reported for the urban area. In particular, deposition values of Hg were higher in the samples attributed to relatively large precipitation amounts in the summer and in those collected during the winter season (the result of higher contributions from combustion sources, i.e. intensive combustion of fossil fuels in residential and commercial boilers, individual power/heat-generating plants). In addition, a significant relationship between Hg concentration and precipitation amount was found while considering different types of wintertime samples (i.e. rain, snow and mixed precipitation). The analysis of backward trajectories showed that air masses arriving from polluted regions of western Europe and southern Poland largely affected the amount of Hg in rainwater. A seasonal variation in Hg deposition fluxes was also observed, with the maximum value of Hg in spring and minimum in winter. Our results indicated that rainwater Hg and, consequently, the wet deposition flux of Hg are related to seasonal differences in precipitation (type, intensity, amount) and the emission source.

Climate Response of Direct Radiative Forcing of Anthropogenic Black Carbon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chung, Serena H.; Seinfeld,John H.

2008-01-01

The equilibrium climate effect of direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic black carbon (BC) is examined by 100-year simulations in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model II-prime coupled to a mixed-layer ocean model. Anthropogenic BC is predicted to raise globally and annually averaged equilibrium surface air temperature by 0.20 K if BC is assumed to be externally mixed. The predicted increase is significantly greater in the Northern Hemisphere (0.29 K) than in the Southern Hemisphere (0.11 K). If BC is assumed to be internally mixed with the present day level of sulfate aerosol, the predicted annual mean surface temperature increase rises to 0.37 K globally, 0.54 K for the Northern Hemisphere, and 0.20 K for the Southern Hemisphere. The climate sensitivity of BC direct radiative forcing is calculated to be 0.6 K W (sup -1) square meters, which is about 70% of that of CO2, independent of the assumption of BC mixing state. The largest surface temperature response occurs over the northern high latitudes during winter and early spring. In the tropics and midlatitudes, the largest temperature increase is predicted to occur in the upper troposphere. Direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic BC is also predicted to lead to a change of precipitation patterns in the tropics; precipitation is predicted to increase between 0 and 20 N and decrease between 0 and 20 S, shifting the intertropical convergence zone northward. If BC is assumed to be internally mixed with sulfate instead of externally mixed, the change in precipitation pattern is enhanced. The change in precipitation pattern is not predicted to alter the global burden of BC significantly because the change occurs predominantly in regions removed from BC sources.

[Influence of below-cloud secondary evaporation on stable isotope composition in precipitation in Northwest China.

PubMed

Liu, Jie Yao; Zhang, Fu Ping; Feng, Qi; Li, Zong Xing; Zhu, Yi Wen; Nie, Shuo; Li, Ling

2018-05-01

The precipitation isotope data and meteorological data of eight stations provided by GNIP (Global Network for Isotopes in Precipitation) and two stations from the present study, combined with HYSPLIT model and water droplet evaporation model were used to examine the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation δ 18 O and d values in Northwest China. The secondary evaporative effect of existence was evaluated and then quantitatively discussed, with the sensitive factors of secondary evaporative effect being considered. The results showed that during the summer monsoon, the δ 18 O and d values decreased from south to north in Xinjiang, while the δ 18 O value increased but d values decreased from south to north and from east to west of Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia region. During the winter monsoon, the δ 18 O value decreased from east to west in whole Northwest region, while the d value increased from south to north in Xinjiang, decreased from south to north and increased slightly from east to west in Shanxi-Gansu-Ningxia. The slope and intercept (6.80, -0.07) of the atmospheric precipitation line in the summer monsoon period was significantly lower than that of annual mean (7.27, 3.37) and winter monsoon period (7.46, 6.07), indicating that the secondary evaporation was stronger during the summer monsoon. The evaporation ratio in the summer monsoon was 4.49%, which was higher than 3.65% in the winter monsoon. However, the evaporation ratio of the winter monsoon was higher than the summer monsoon around of Loess Plateau, which might closely relate to the increasing drought of the Loess Plateau in recent years. Finally, the intensity of secondary evaporation decreased with increasing relative humidity, precipitation and vapor pressure but increased with increasing temperature (greater than 0 ℃). The influences of those factors (humidity, precipitation, temperature and vapor pressure) on the secondary evaporation were dependent on the differences of ranges.

Exploring the causes of declining Colorado River streamflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, M.; Udall, B. H.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2017-12-01

As the major river of the Southwestern U.S., the Colorado River is central to the region's water resources. Over the period 1916-2014, the river's naturalized streamflow at Lee's Ferry declined by about 1/6th. However, annual precipitation in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) part (above Lees Ferry) over that period increases slightly (1.4%; ΔPwinter is -0.2% and ΔPsummer is 3.0%). In order to examine the causes of the runoff declines, we performed a set of experiments with the VIC model in which we detrended the model's temperature forcings for each of 20 sub-basins that make up the basin. Negative winter precipitation anomalies have occurred in the handful of highly productive sub-basins that account for much of streamflow at Lee's Ferry. Although a few headwater tributaries have received above-average precipitation that counteracts some of the runoff losses, the dominant signal in the highly productive sub-basins is declining precipitation and runoff. The situation is exacerbated by pervasive warming that has reduced winter snowpacks and enhanced ET (1.9°C increase for winter and 1.7°C for summer). The warming causes over half (53%) of the long-term decreasing runoff trend. The remainder is caused by a combination of reduced precipitation and increasing winter ET associated with increased net shortwave radiation. From comparison with an earlier 1953-1968 drought that was caused primarily by anomalously low precipitation across UCRB, we find higher temperatures have played a much larger role in the post-Millennium Drought, although reductions in precipitation in several of the most productive headwater basins have played a role as well. Finally, we evaluate the Upper Basin April-July runoff forecast, which decreased dramatically as the runoff season progressed. We find that well much of the spring was anomalously warm, the proximate cause of most of the forecast reduction was anomalous dryness, which accompanied the warmer conditions.

Analysis of extreme summers and prior late winter/spring conditions in central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Träger-Chatterjee, C.; Müller, R. W.; Bendix, J.

2013-05-01

Drought and heat waves during summer in mid-latitudes are a serious threat to human health and agriculture and have negative impacts on the infrastructure, such as problems in energy supply. The appearance of such extreme events is expected to increase with the progress of global warming. A better understanding of the development of extremely hot and dry summers and the identification of possible precursors could help improve existing seasonal forecasts in this regard, and could possibly lead to the development of early warning methods. The development of extremely hot and dry summer seasons in central Europe is attributed to a combined effect of the dominance of anticyclonic weather regimes and soil moisture-atmosphere interactions. The atmospheric circulation largely determines the amount of solar irradiation and the amount of precipitation in an area. These two variables are themselves major factors controlling the soil moisture. Thus, solar irradiation and precipitation are used as proxies to analyse extreme sunny and dry late winter/spring and summer seasons for the period 1958-2011 in Germany and adjacent areas. For this purpose, solar irradiation data from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast 40-yr and interim re-analysis dataset, as well as remote sensing data are used. Precipitation data are taken from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project. To analyse the atmospheric circulation geopotential data at 850 hPa are also taken from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast 40-yr and interim re-analysis datasets. For the years in which extreme summers in terms of high solar irradiation and low precipitation are identified, the previous late winter/spring conditions of solar irradiation and precipitation in Germany and adjacent areas are analysed. Results show that if the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is not very intensely developed, extremely high solar irradiation amounts, together with extremely low precipitation amounts during late winter/spring, might serve as precursor of extremely sunny and dry summer months to be expected.

Variations of net ecosystem production due to seasonal precipitation differences in a tropical dry forest of northwest Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verduzco, Vivian S.; Garatuza-Payán, Jaime; Yépez, Enrico A.; Watts, Christopher J.; Rodríguez, Julio C.; Robles-Morua, Agustin; Vivoni, Enrique R.

2015-10-01

Due to their large extent and high primary productivity, tropical dry forests (TDF) are important contributors to atmospheric carbon exchanges in subtropical and tropical regions. In northwest Mexico, a bimodal precipitation regime that includes winter precipitation derived from Pacific storms and summer precipitation from the North American monsoon (NAM) couples water availability with ecosystem processes. We investigated the net ecosystem production of a TDF ecosystem using a 4.5 year record of water and carbon fluxes obtained from the eddy covariance method complemented with remotely sensed data. We identified a large CO2 efflux at the start of the summer season that is strongly related to the preceding winter precipitation and greenness. Since this CO2 efflux occurs prior to vegetation green-up, we infer that respiration is mainly due to decomposition of soil organic matter accumulated from the prior growing season. Overall, ecosystem respiration has an important effect on the net ecosystem production but can be overwhelmed by the strength of the primary productivity during the NAM. Precipitation characteristics during NAM have significant controls on sustaining carbon fixation in the TDF into the fall season. We identified that a threshold of ~350 to 400 mm of monsoon precipitation leads to a switch in the annual carbon balance in the TDF ecosystem from a net source (+102 g C/m2/yr) to a net sink (-249 g C/m2/yr). This monsoonal precipitation threshold is typically exceeded one out of every 2 years. The close coupling of winter and summer periods with respect to carbon fluxes suggests that the annual carbon balance is dependent on precipitation amounts in both seasons in TDF ecosystems.

El Niño and its impact on fire weather conditions in Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hess, Jason C.; Scott, Carven A.; Hufford, Gary L.; Fleming, Michael D.

2001-01-01

Examining the relationship of El Niño to weather patterns in Alaska shows wide climate variances that depend on the teleconnection between the tropics and the northern latitudes. However, the weather patterns exhibited in Alaska during and just after moderate to strong El Niño episodes are generally consistent: above normal temperature and precipitation along the Alaskan coast, and above normal temperature and below normal precipitation in the interior, especially through the winter. The warm, dry conditions in the Alaskan interior increase summer wildfire potential. Statistics on the area burned since 1940 show that 15 out of 17 of the biggest fire years occurred during a moderate to strong El Niño episode. These 15 years account for nearly 63% of the total area burned over the last 58 years. Evidence points to increased dry thunderstorms and associated lightning activity during an El Niño episode; the percentage of total area burned by lightning caused fires during five episodes increased from a normal of less than 40% to a high of about 96%.

A numerical study of the acid rain in northern Taiwan in winter season

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Ching-Sen; Deng, Zen-Sing

1996-12-31

Two-thirds of the land mass of Taiwan island is covered by mountains. In winter precipitation could occur in northern Taiwan when the prevailing wind was from northeastern direction. In northern Taiwan the acid rain (pH value less than 5.0) in winter time could contribute about 30 rain in the whole year. A three-dimensional numerical model with terrain following coordinated system was used to simulate the precipitation system and the characteristics of acid rain. A smooth terrain was assumed in the model. A mean sounding was used to initialize the numerical model when acid rain occurred in northern Taiwan during wintermore » time from 1991 to 1993. Investigations of the effect of pollutions from abroad on the acid rain in northern Taiwan in winter are considered for the future.« less

Spatial patterns of trends and teleconnections in climate indices relevant for Mexican maize

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dewes, C. F.

2013-05-01

This study contributes to the discussion of climate trends in Mexico and the influence of hemispheric-scale variability patterns over the period 1950-2008. Its uniqueness is three-fold. First, the choice of climate indices under scrutiny aims to represent an agro-climatic perspective, geared towards maize in particular because of the major role this crop plays in Mexico's culture, diet, and economy. Second, the spatial resolution and coverage of these findings can be useful for interpretations at the local level (i.e. district or state), yet keeping the broad national picture in perspective. This should be particularly useful to agro-climate forecasting, assessment of impacts, and/or policy development. Third, this study uncovers a dominance of the North Atlantic over the Pacific Ocean in respect to remote influences on trend patterns in Mexico. Trends in precipitation show that east of the central highlands, the rainy season is starting later and becoming drier. The same is occurring along the Pacific coastal plain, but there an increase in extreme events is also observed. For south-central Mexico and the Yucatán, rains not only are starting earlier but intensity and frequency of extreme events are also increasing. In some of these areas dry days are becoming more frequent. Trends in temperature suggest that highlands are warming at faster rates than lowlands, which in some places are actually cooling. Warming in the fall-winter growing season is more pronounced than in the spring-summer growing season. On the other hand, cold spells during mid-summer are becoming more frequent over the highlands. Connections were found between these trends and large-scale variability patterns, namely El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific North America (PNA), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Caribbean sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Interannual variability related to ENSO and the PNA, and trends towards more Niño-like conditions, are associated with increasing precipitation over the Yucatán and a few areas along the southern Pacific coast, and with more dry days - though accompanied by stronger extreme precipitation events - over southwestern Mexico. They are also associated with a delaying start of the rainy season in a narrow area just east of the south-central highlands and higher risk of frost during late-winter up in the highlands. Increasing Caribbean SSTs are associated with increasing temperatures over the mainland and stronger precipitation over the Yucatán. Variability in the NAO and its trend towards more positive phases is associated the drying trend in central Mexico, intensification of precipitation over the northwest, and also increasing temperatures over the entire mainland in both the warm and cold growing seasons. The atmospheric circulation over the Atlantic Ocean and its increasing tropical SSTs, have a larger and broader participation in Mexican trends than is noted with the Pacific counterparts.

Identification of relationships between climate indices and long-term precipitation in South Korea using ensemble empirical mode decomposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Taereem; Shin, Ju-Young; Kim, Sunghun; Heo, Jun-Haeng

2018-02-01

Climate indices characterize climate systems and may identify important indicators for long-term precipitation, which are driven by climate interactions in atmosphere-ocean circulation. In this study, we investigated the climate indices that are effective indicators of long-term precipitation in South Korea, and examined their relationships based on statistical methods. Monthly total precipitation was collected from a total of 60 meteorological stations, and they were decomposed by ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) to identify the inherent oscillating patterns or cycles. Cross-correlation analysis and stepwise variable selection were employed to select the significant climate indices at each station. The climate indices that affect the monthly precipitation in South Korea were identified based on the selection frequencies of the selected indices at all stations. The NINO12 indices with four- and ten-month lags and AMO index with no lag were identified as indicators of monthly precipitation in South Korea. Moreover, they indicate meaningful physical information (e.g. periodic oscillations and long-term trend) inherent in the monthly precipitation. The NINO12 indices with four- and ten- month lags was a strong indicator representing periodic oscillations in monthly precipitation. In addition, the long-term trend of the monthly precipitation could be explained by the AMO index. A multiple linear regression model was constructed to investigate the influences of the identified climate indices on the prediction of monthly precipitation. Three identified climate indices successfully explained the monthly precipitation in the winter dry season. Compared to the monthly precipitation in coastal areas, the monthly precipitation in inland areas showed stronger correlation to the identified climate indices.

Impacts of Changing Climate on Agricultural Variability: Implications for Smallholder Farmers in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mondal, P.; Jain, M.; DeFries, R. S.; Galford, G. L.; Small, C.

2013-12-01

Agriculture is the largest employment sector in India, where food productivity, and thus food security, is highly dependent on seasonal rainfall and temperature. Projected increase in temperature, along with less frequent but intense rainfall events, will have a negative impact on crop productivity in India in the coming decades. These changes, along with continued ground water depletion, could have serious implications for Indian smallholder farmers, who are among some of the most vulnerable communities to climatic and economic changes. Hence baseline information on agricultural sensitivity to climate variability is important for strategies and policies that promote adaptation to climate variability. This study examines how cropping patterns in different agro-ecological zones in India respond to variations in precipitation and temperature. We specifically examine: a) which climate variables most influence crop cover for monsoon and winter crops? and b) how does the sensitivity of crop cover to climate variability vary in different agro-ecological regions with diverse socio-economic factors? We use remote sensing data (2000-01 - 2012-13) for cropping patterns (developed using MODIS satellite data), climate parameters (derived from MODIS and TRMM satellite data) and agricultural census data. We initially assessed the importance of these climate variables in two agro-ecoregions: a predominantly groundwater irrigated, cash crop region in western India, and a region in central India primarily comprised of rain-fed or surface water irrigated subsistence crops. Seasonal crop cover anomaly varied between -25% and 25% of the 13-year mean in these two regions. Predominantly climate-dependent region in central India showed high anomalies up to 200% of the 13-year crop cover mean, especially during winter season. Winter daytime mean temperature is overwhelmingly the most important climate variable for winter crops irrespective of the varied biophysical and socio-economic conditions across the study regions. Despite access to groundwater irrigation, crop cover in the western Indian study region showed substantial fluctuations during monsoon, probably due to changing planting strategies. This region is less sensitive to precipitation compared to the central Indian study region with predominantly climate-dependent irrigation from surface water. In western Indian study region a greater number of rainy days, increased intensity of rainfall, and cooler daytime and nighttime temperatures lead to increased crop cover during monsoon season, compared to in the central Indian study region where monsoon timing and amount of total rainfall are the most important factors of crop cover. Our findings indicate that different regions respond differently to climate, since socio-economic factors, such as irrigation access, market influences, demography, and policies play critical role in agricultural production. In the wake of projected precipitation and temperature changes, better access to irrigation and heat-tolerant high-yielding crop varieties will be crucial for future food production.

Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Home Page

Science.gov Websites

grids, quantitative precipitation, and winter weather outlook probabilities can be found at: http Short Range Products » More Medium Range Products Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Legacy Page Discussion (Day 1-3) Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College

Gravity Waves in the Southern Hemisphere Extratropical Winter in the 7-km GEOS-5 Nature Run

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holt, L. A.; Alexander, M. J.; Coy, L.; Putman, W.; Molod, A.; Pawson, S.

2016-12-01

This study investigates winter Southern Hemisphere extratropical gravity waves and their sources in a 7-km horizontal resolution global climate simulation, the GEOS-5 Nature Run (NR). Gravity waves are evaluated by comparing brightness temperature anomalies to those from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). Gravity wave amplitudes, wavelengths, and propagation directions are also computed in the NR and AIRS. The NR shows good agreement with AIRS in terms of spatial patterns of gravity wave activity and propagation directions, but the NR amplitudes are smaller by about a factor of 5 and the wavelengths are about a factor of 2 longer than in AIRS. In addition to evaluating gravity wave characteristics, gravity wave sources in the NR are also investigated by relating diagnostics of tropospheric sources of gravity waves, such as precipitation, frontogenesis, and potential vorticity anomalies to absolute gravity wave momentum fluxes in the lower stratosphere. Strong precipitation events are the most strongly correlated with absolute momentum flux, supporting previous studies highlighting the importance of moist processes in the generation of Southern Hemisphere extratropical gravity waves. Additionally, gravity wave absolute momentum fluxes over land are compared to those over ocean, and the contribution of orographic and nonorographic gravity waves to the total absolute momentum flux is examined.

An intercomparison of observational precipitation data sets over Northwest India during winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nageswararao, M. M.; Mohanty, U. C.; Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.; Dimri, A. P.

2018-04-01

Winter (DJF) precipitation over Northwest India (NWI) is very important for the cultivation of Rabi crops. Thus, an accurate estimation of high-resolution observations, evaluation of high-resolution numerical models, and understanding the local variability trends are essential. The objective of this study is to verify the quality of a new high spatial resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) gridded daily precipitation data set of India Meteorological Department (IMD1) over NWI during winter. An intercomparison with four existing precipitation data sets at 0.5° × 0.5° of IMD (IMD2), 1° × 1° of IMD (IMD3), 0.25° × 0.25° of APHRODITE (APRD1), and 0.5° × 0.5° of APHRODITE (APRD1) resolution during a common period of 1971-2003 is done. The evaluation of data quality of these five data sets against available 26 station observations is carried out, and the results clearly indicate that all the five data sets reasonably agreed with the station observation. However, the errors are relatively more in all the five data sets over Jammu and Kashmir-related four stations (Srinagar, Drass, Banihal top, and Dawar), while these errors are less in the other stations. It may be due to the lack of station observations over the region. The quality of IMD1 data set over NWI for winter precipitation is reasonably well than the other data sets. The intercomparison analysis suggests that the climatological mean, interannual variability, and coefficient of variation from IMD1 are similar with other data sets. Further, the analysis extended to the India meteorological subdivisions over the region. This analysis indicates overestimation in IMD3 and underestimation in APRD1 and APRD2 over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and NWI as a whole, whereas IMD2 is closer to IMD1. Moreover, all the five data sets are highly correlated (>0.5) among them at 99.9% confidence level for all subdivisions. It is remarkably noticed that multicategorical (light precipitation, moderate precipitation, heavy precipitation, and very heavy precipitation) skill score of accuracy (>0.8) for the four data sets against IMD1 is good for all the subdivisions as well as NWI and is more in IMD2. IMD1 performs well in capturing the relationships of winter precipitation with climate indices such as Nino 3.4 region sea surface temperature, Southern Oscillation Index, Arctic Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation. The results conclude that IMD1 is useful to understand the variability trends at the local climate scale and its global teleconnections.

[Estimating the impacts of future climate change on water requirement and water deficit of winter wheat in Henan Province, China].

PubMed

Ji, Xing-jie; Cheng, Lin; Fang, Wen-song

2015-09-01

Based on the analysis of water requirement and water deficit during development stage of winter wheat in recent 30 years (1981-2010) in Henan Province, the effective precipitation was calculated using the U.S. Department of Agriculture Soil Conservation method, the water requirement (ETC) was estimated by using FAO Penman-Monteith equation and crop coefficient method recommended by FAO, combined with the climate change scenario A2 (concentration on the economic envelopment) and B2 ( concentration on the sustainable development) of Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) , the spatial and temporal characteristics of impacts of future climate change on effective precipitation, water requirement and water deficit of winter wheat were estimated. The climatic impact factors of ETc and WD also were analyzed. The results showed that under A2 and B2 scenarios, there would be a significant increase in anomaly percentage of effective precipitation, water requirement and water deficit of winter wheat during the whole growing period compared with the average value from 1981 to 2010. Effective precipitation increased the most in 2030s under A2 and B2 scenarios by 33.5% and 39.2%, respectively. Water requirement increased the most in 2010s under A2 and B2 scenarios by 22.5% and 17.5%, respectively, and showed a significant downward trend with time. Water deficit increased the most under A2 scenario in 2010s by 23.6% and under B2 scenario in 2020s by 13.0%. Partial correlation analysis indicated that solar radiation was the main cause for the variation of ETc and WD in future under A2 and B2 scenarios. The spatial distributions of effective precipitation, water requirement and water deficit of winter wheat during the whole growing period were spatially heterogeneous because of the difference in geographical and climatic environments. A possible tendency of water resource deficiency may exist in Henan Province in the future.

Precipitation and primary health care visits for gastrointestinal illness in Gothenburg, Sweden.

PubMed

Tornevi, Andreas; Barregård, Lars; Forsberg, Bertil

2015-01-01

The river Göta Älv is a source of freshwater for the City of Gothenburg, Sweden, and we recently identified a clear influence of upstream precipitation on concentrations of indicator bacteria in the river water, as well as an association with the daily number of phone calls to the nurse advice line related to acute gastrointestinal illnesses (AGI calls). This study aimed to examine visits to primary health-care centers owing to similar symptoms (AGI visits) in the same area, to explore associations with precipitation, and to compare variability in AGI visits and AGI calls. We obtained data covering six years (2007-2012) of daily AGI visits and studied their association with prior precipitation (0-28 days) using a distributed lag nonlinear Poisson regression model, adjusting for seasonal patterns and covariates. In addition, we studied the effects of prolonged wet and dry weather on AGI visits. We analyzed lagged short-term relations between AGI visits and AGI calls, and we studied differences in their seasonal patterns using a binomial regression model. The study period saw a total of 17,030 AGI visits, and the number of daily visits decreased on days when precipitation occurred. However, prolonged wet weather was associated with an elevated number of AGI visits. Differences in seasonality patterns were observed between AGI visits and AGI calls, as visits were relatively less frequent during winter and relatively more frequent in August, and only weak short-term relations were found. AGI visits and AGI calls seems to partly reflect different types of AGI illnesses, and the patients' choice of medical contact (in-person visits versus phone calls) appears to depend on current weather conditions. An association between prolonged wet weather and increased AGI visits supports the hypothesis that the drinking water is related to an increased risk of AGI illnesses.

Hydrology of the North Cascades region, Washington: 2. A proposed hydrometeorological streamflow prediction method

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tangborn, Wendell V.; Rasmussen, Lowell A.

1976-01-01

On the basis of a linear relationship between winter (October-April) precipitation and annual runoff from a drainage basin (Rasmussen and Tangborn, 1976) a physically reasonable model for predicting summer (May-September) streamflow from drainages in the North Cascades region was developed. This hydrometeorological prediction method relates streamflow for a season beginning on the day of prediction to the storage (including snow, ice, soil moisture, and groundwater) on that day. The spring storage is inferred from an input-output relationship based on the principle of conservation of mass: spring storage equals winter precipitation on the basin less winter runoff from the basin and less winter evapotranspiration, which is presumed to be small. The method of prediction is based on data only from the years previous to the one for which the prediction is made, and the system is revised each year as data for the previous year become available. To improve the basin storage estimate made in late winter or early spring, a short-season runoff prediction is made. The errors resulting from this short-term prediction are used to revise the storage estimate and improve the later prediction. This considerably improves the accuracy of the later prediction, especially for periods early in the summer runoff season. The optimum length for the test period appears to be generally less than a month for east side basins and between 1 and 2 months for those on the west side of the Cascade Range. The time distribution of the total summer runoff can be predicted when this test season is used so that on May 1 monthly streamflow for the May-September season can be predicted. It was found that summer precipitation and the time of minimum storage are two error sources that were amenable to analysis. For streamflow predictions in seasons beginning in early spring the deviation of the subsequent summer precipitation from a long-period average will contribute up to 53% of the prediction error. This contribution decreases to nearly zero during the summer and then rises slightly for late summer predictions. The reason for the smaller than expected effect of summer precipitation is thought to be due to the compensating effect of increased evaporative losses and increased infiltration when precipitation is greater than normal during the summer months. The error caused by the beginning winter month (assumed to be October in this study) not coinciding with the time of minimum storage was examined; it appears that October may be the best average beginning winter month for most drainages but that a more detailed study is needed. The optimum beginning of the winter season appears to vary from August to October when individual years are examined. These results demonstrate that standard precipitation and runoff measurements in the North Cascades region are adequate for constructing a predictive hydrologic model. This model can be used to make streamflow predictions that compare favorably with current multiple regression methods based on mountain snow surveys. This method has the added advantages of predicting the space and time distributions of storage and summer runoff.

South American Monsoon precipitation trends from 1948-2006

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Araujo, L. R.; De Mattos, J. Z.; Goncalves, L.

2013-05-01

In South America the monsoon system affects the Amazon region extending to the center of the South American continent to the northeast and southeast coastal strip. The characteristic South America Monsoon System (SAMS) is not classical, as in East Asia and India. The SAMS do not show a typical seasonal reversal in wind circulation regime, however indicates aspect of monsoon climate, as well as the seasonal cycle of rainfall over much of the continent, this is, a period of intense rain in summer and winter extremely dry. Despite the precipitation rate in the region of the SAMS being lower than other monsoon areas of the globe, it has a great influency in the major human and economical activities in that continent what motivetis the goal of this work which is to study the trend of rainfall over South America during the monsoon season in South America. For this study Climate Research Unit (CRU) precipitation data was used for the period between 1948 and 2006 during the months from November to March. The spatial resolution of the data is 1 degree and 3 hours temporal resolution. Preliminary results show that there was a pattern of positive trend in precipitation for the months of January, February, March, months in the seasonal cycle of precipitation SAMS.

Why did the 2015/16 El Niño Fail to Bring Excessive Precipitation to California?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jong, B. T.; Ting, M.; Seager, R.; Lee, D. E.

2016-12-01

California has experienced severe drought in recent years posing great challenges to water resources, agriculture, and land management. El Niño, as the prime sources of seasonal to interannual climate predictability, offers the potential of alleviation of drought in California. Here, El Niño's impacts on California winter precipitation are examined. Our results, based on the observations during 1901-2010, show that El Niño's influence on precipitation strengthens from early to late winter even as El Niño weakens. The cause of the nonlinear relationship between sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) amplitude and teleconnection strength is the late winter warming of the climatological mean SST over the tropical eastern Pacific, allowing more active and eastward extending tropical deep convection anomaly. The 2015/16 El Niño, one of the strongest events in recent history, did not bring the heavy precipitation to California anticipated based on model forecasts and experience with the previous two strong El Niños, 1982/83 and 1997/98. North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) 3-month average forecasts of SST from February 1 2016, models overestimated the Niño3 SSTA, compared to what actually occurred and, consistently, forecast heavier than observed California precipitation. The too high Niño3 SSTA drove too strong deep convection anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific, triggering a too strong teleconnection that made the forecast California precipitation too wet. Thus, the faster than forecast decay in Niño3 SST anomalies at the end of the 2015/16 El Niño is one possible reason why the event failed to bring excess precipitation to California in the late winter. Controlled GCM experiments support this hypothesis and show that the teleconnection forced by the multimodel mean forecast of 2016 February-March-April SSTAs is stronger than the one forced by the observed SSTAs. Within the NMME those models that more correctly forecast the decay of El Niño 2015/16 also more correctly forecast modest precipitation anomalies over California.

Precipitation isotopes link regional climate patterns to water supply in a tropical mountain forest, eastern Puerto Rico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scholl, Martha A.; Murphy, Sheila F.

2014-01-01

Like many mountainous areas in the tropics, watersheds in the Luquillo Mountains of eastern Puerto Rico have abundant rainfall and stream discharge and provide much of the water supply for the densely populated metropolitan areas nearby. Projected changes in regional temperature and atmospheric dynamics as a result of global warming suggest that water availability will be affected by changes in rainfall patterns. It is essential to understand the relative importance of different weather systems to water supply to determine how changes in rainfall patterns, interacting with geology and vegetation, will affect the water balance. To help determine the links between climate and water availability, stable isotope signatures of precipitation from different weather systems were established to identify those that are most important in maintaining streamflow and groundwater recharge. Precipitation stable isotope values in the Luquillo Mountains had a large range, from fog/cloud water with δ2H, δ18O values as high as +12 ‰, −0.73 ‰ to tropical storm rain with values as low as −127 ‰, −16.8 ‰. Temporal isotope values exhibit a reverse seasonality from those observed in higher latitude continental watersheds, with higher isotopic values in the winter and lower values in the summer. Despite the higher volume of convective and low-pressure system rainfall, stable isotope analyses indicated that under the current rainfall regime, frequent trade -wind orographic showers contribute much of the groundwater recharge and stream base flow. Analysis of rain events using 20 years of 15 -minute resolution data at a mountain station (643 m) showed an increasing trend in rainfall amount, in agreement with increased precipitable water in the atmosphere, but differing from climate model projections of drying in the region. The mean intensity of rain events also showed an increasing trend. The determination of recharge sources from stable isotope tracers indicates that water supply will be affected if regional atmospheric dynamics change trade- wind orographic rainfall patterns in the Caribbean.

The stable isotope amount effect: New insights from NEXRAD echo tops, Luquillo Mountains, Puerto Rico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scholl, Martha A.; Shanley, James B.; Zegarra, Jan Paul; Coplen, Tyler B.

2009-01-01

The stable isotope amount effect has often been invoked to explain patterns of isotopic composition of rainfall in the tropics. This paper describes a new approach, correlating the isotopic composition of precipitation with cloud height and atmospheric temperature using NEXRAD radar echo tops, which are a measure of the maximum altitude of rainfall within the clouds. The seasonal differences in echo top altitudes and their corresponding temperatures are correlated with the isotopic composition of rainfall. These results offer another factor to consider in interpretation of the seasonal variation in isotopic composition of tropical rainfall, which has previously been linked to amount or rainout effects and not to temperature effects. Rain and cloud water isotope collectors in the Luquillo Mountains in northeastern Puerto Rico were sampled monthly for three years and precipitation was analyzed for δ18O and δ2H. Precipitation enriched in 18O and 2H occurred during the winter dry season (approximately December–May) and was associated with a weather pattern of trade wind showers and frontal systems. During the summer rainy season (approximately June–November), precipitation was depleted in 18O and 2H and originated in low pressure systems and convection associated with waves embedded in the prevailing easterly airflow. Rain substantially depleted in 18O and 2H compared to the aforementioned weather patterns occurred during large low pressure systems. Weather analysis showed that 29% of rain input to the Luquillo Mountains was trade wind orographic rainfall, and 30% of rainfall could be attributed to easterly waves and low pressure systems. Isotopic signatures associated with these major climate patterns can be used to determine their influence on streamflow and groundwater recharge and to monitor possible effects of climate change on regional water resources.

Improving Simulations of Precipitation Phase and Snowpack at a Site Subject to Cold Air Intrusions: Snoqualmie Pass, WA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wayand, N. E.; Stimberis, J.; Zagrodnik, J.; Mass, C.; Lundquist, J. D.

2016-12-01

Low-level cold air from eastern Washington state often flows westward through mountain passes in the Washington Cascades, creating localized inversions and locally reducing climatological temperatures. The persistence of this inversion during a frontal passage can result in complex patterns of snow and rain that are difficult to predict. Yet, these predictions are critical to support highway avalanche control, ski resort operations, and modeling of headwater snowpack storage. In this study we used observations of precipitation phase from a disdrometer and snow depth sensors across Snoqualmie Pass, WA, to evaluate surface-air-temperature-based and mesoscale-model-based predictions of precipitation phase during the anomalously warm 2014-2015 winter. The skill of surface-based methods was greatly improved by using air temperature from a nearby higher-elevation station, which was less impacted by low-level inversions. Alternatively, we found a hybrid method that combines surface-based predictions with output from the Weather Research and Forecasting mesoscale model to have improved skill over both parent models. These results suggest that prediction of precipitation phase in mountain passes can be improved by incorporating observations or models from above the surface layer.

Quantification of climate and vegetation from southern African Middle Stone Age sites - an application using Late Pleistocene plant material from Sibudu, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruch, Angela A.; Sievers, Christine; Wadley, Lyn

2012-06-01

In southern Africa numerous Middle Stone Age (MSA) sites document important steps in technological and behavioural development leading to significant changes in the lifeways of modern humans. To assess whether these cultural changes and developments may be related to environmental changes we need to ascertain past environments. To do this we apply a new quantitative method, the GIS-based Coexistence Approach (CAGIS), on fossil plant material from the MSA site Sibudu, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Previous qualitative environmental interpretations of the fossil fauna and flora of the site remain ambiguous. Because much of the material is anthropogenically introduced, it is difficult to distinguish between the effects of natural changes in the local vegetation and behavioural changes of the people that inhabited the shelter. CAGIS can be applied to such biased assemblages and seems to be an adequate method to directly quantify palaeoclimate and vegetation parameters at an archaeological site. The CAGIS analysis shows that during the Howiesons Poort (HP) Industry winters were slightly colder and drier than present, whereas during summer, temperatures and precipitation were similar to today. Post-HP winters were drier and colder than present, presumably colder than during the HP. Summer temperatures remained the same, but summer precipitation decreased from the HP to post-HP. Vegetation cover was less than today, may be even less than during the HP. The late MSA was observably warmer than the older periods, especially during winter. At the same time summer precipitation slightly increased and vegetation became more dense, but still remained generally open similar to today's anthropogenic landscape. Generally, climatic changes are most pronouncedly reflected in winter temperature parameters, especially in minimum winter temperatures, and to a lesser extent by changes in summer precipitation. The observed ecological trends seem to be affected mainly by variations through time in winter temperatures. This refinement of interpretation was not discernible using previous methods for analysing the Sibudu data.

Analysis of the Effects of ENSO and Atmospheric Rivers on Precipitation in Los Angeles County

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santacruz, A.; Lamb, K.

2017-12-01

The Winter 2016-2017 season in California was marked by substantial amounts of precipitation; this resulted in critically-low reservoirs filling up and the removal of most of California from drought status. The year prior was characterized by one of the strongest El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, though it did not produce nearly enough precipitation as the 2016-2017 season. The major contributors to the increased rainfall during the 2016-2017 season were climactic phenomenon known as atmospheric rivers (ARs), which transport water vapor through the atmosphere in narrow bands, and are known to produce extreme rain events. Determining the exact timing, landfall areas, and total precipitation amounts of ARs is currently of great interest; a recent study showed that extreme weather events are likely to increase in California in the coming years, which motivates research into how phenomenon such as ENSO and ARs play a role. Using long-term daily rain gauge data provided by the Los Angeles County Department of Public Works, we compute the precipitation volume and storm count for various locations in Los Angeles County and identify anomalies. These data will then be compared with the occurrence and intensity of AR and ENSO events by using NOAA's NOI and ESRL AR data. The results can be used to provide a better grasp of extreme climactic patterns and their effects on the amount of precipitation in the region.

Hydrological differentiation and spatial distribution of high altitude wetlands in a semi-arid Andean region derived from satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, M.; Scherer, D.; Richters, J.

2011-01-01

High Altitude Wetlands of the Andes (HAWA) are unique types of wetlands within the semi-arid high Andean region. Knowledge about HAWA has been derived mainly from studies at single sites within different parts of the Andes at only small time scales. On the one hand HAWA depend on water provided by glacier streams, snow melt or precipitation. On the other hand, they are suspected to influence hydrology through water retention and vegetation growth altering stream flow velocity. We derived HAWA land cover from satellite data at regional scale and analysed changes in connection with precipitation over the last decade. Perennial and temporal HAWA subtypes can be distinguished by seasonal changes of photosynthetically active vegetation (PAV) indicating the perennial or temporal availability of water during the year. HAWA have been delineated within a region of 11 000 km2 situated in the Northwest of Lake Titicaca. The multi temporal classification method used Normalized Differenced Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Normalized Differenced Infrared Index (NDII) data derived from two Landsat ETM+ scenes at the end of austral winter (September 2000) and at the end of austral summer (May 2001). The mapping result indicates an unexpected high abundance of HAWA covering about 800 km2 of the study region (6%). Annual HAWA mapping was computed using NDVI 16-day composites of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Analyses on the reletation between HAWA and precipitation was based on monthly precipitation data of the Tropical Rain Measurement Mission (TRMM 3B43) and MODIS Eight Day Maximum Snow Extent data (MOD10A2) from 2000 to 2010. We found HAWA subtype specific dependencies to precipitation conditions. Strong relation exists between perennial HAWA and snow fall (r2: 0.82) in dry austral winter months (June to August) and between temporal HAWA and precipitation (r2: 0.75) during austral summer (March to May). Annual spatial patterns of perennial HAWA indicated spatial alteration of water supply for PAV up to several hundred metres at a single HAWA site.

Prevalence of hematozoa infections among breeding and wintering Rusty Blackbirds

Treesearch

William H. Barnard; Claudia Mettke-Hofmann; Steven M. Matsuoka

2010-01-01

The Rusty Blackbird (Euphagus carolinus) has declined precipitously over the past several decades,and stressors on both the breeding and wintering grounds are suspected causes. Over 3 years, we collected blood samples from breeding birds in Alaska and Maine and from wintering birds in Mississippi and Arkansas to determine the prevalence of hematozoan infections at...

Tundra water budget and implications of precipitation underestimation

PubMed Central

Hinzman, Larry D.; Kane, Douglas L.; Oechel, Walter C.; Tweedie, Craig E.; Zona, Donatella

2017-01-01

Abstract Difficulties in obtaining accurate precipitation measurements have limited meaningful hydrologic assessment for over a century due to performance challenges of conventional snowfall and rainfall gauges in windy environments. Here, we compare snowfall observations and bias adjusted snowfall to end‐of‐winter snow accumulation measurements on the ground for 16 years (1999–2014) and assess the implication of precipitation underestimation on the water balance for a low‐gradient tundra wetland near Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska (2007–2009). In agreement with other studies, and not accounting for sublimation, conventional snowfall gauges captured 23–56% of end‐of‐winter snow accumulation. Once snowfall and rainfall are bias adjusted, long‐term annual precipitation estimates more than double (from 123 to 274 mm), highlighting the risk of studies using conventional or unadjusted precipitation that dramatically under‐represent water balance components. Applying conventional precipitation information to the water balance analysis produced consistent storage deficits (79 to 152 mm) that were all larger than the largest actual deficit (75 mm), which was observed in the unusually low rainfall summer of 2007. Year‐to‐year variability in adjusted rainfall (±33 mm) was larger than evapotranspiration (±13 mm). Measured interannual variability in partitioning of snow into runoff (29% in 2008 to 68% in 2009) in years with similar end‐of‐winter snow accumulation (180 and 164 mm, respectively) highlights the importance of the previous summer's rainfall (25 and 60 mm, respectively) on spring runoff production. Incorrect representation of precipitation can therefore have major implications for Arctic water budget descriptions that in turn can alter estimates of carbon and energy fluxes. PMID:29081549

Tundra water budget and implications of precipitation underestimation.

PubMed

Liljedahl, Anna K; Hinzman, Larry D; Kane, Douglas L; Oechel, Walter C; Tweedie, Craig E; Zona, Donatella

2017-08-01

Difficulties in obtaining accurate precipitation measurements have limited meaningful hydrologic assessment for over a century due to performance challenges of conventional snowfall and rainfall gauges in windy environments. Here, we compare snowfall observations and bias adjusted snowfall to end-of-winter snow accumulation measurements on the ground for 16 years (1999-2014) and assess the implication of precipitation underestimation on the water balance for a low-gradient tundra wetland near Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska (2007-2009). In agreement with other studies, and not accounting for sublimation, conventional snowfall gauges captured 23-56% of end-of-winter snow accumulation. Once snowfall and rainfall are bias adjusted, long-term annual precipitation estimates more than double (from 123 to 274 mm), highlighting the risk of studies using conventional or unadjusted precipitation that dramatically under-represent water balance components. Applying conventional precipitation information to the water balance analysis produced consistent storage deficits (79 to 152 mm) that were all larger than the largest actual deficit (75 mm), which was observed in the unusually low rainfall summer of 2007. Year-to-year variability in adjusted rainfall (±33 mm) was larger than evapotranspiration (±13 mm). Measured interannual variability in partitioning of snow into runoff (29% in 2008 to 68% in 2009) in years with similar end-of-winter snow accumulation (180 and 164 mm, respectively) highlights the importance of the previous summer's rainfall (25 and 60 mm, respectively) on spring runoff production. Incorrect representation of precipitation can therefore have major implications for Arctic water budget descriptions that in turn can alter estimates of carbon and energy fluxes.

Arctic Climate during Eocene Hyperthermals: Wet Summers on Ellesmere Island?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenwood, D. R.; West, C. K.; Basinger, J. F.

2012-12-01

Previous work has shown that during the late Paleocene to middle Eocene, mesothermal conditions (i.e., MAT ~12-15° C) and high precipitation (MAP > 150cm/yr) characterized Arctic climates - an Arctic rain forest. Recent analyses of Arctic Eocene wood stable isotope chemistry are consistent with the annual and seasonal temperature estimates from leaf physiognomy and nearest living relative analogy from fossil plants, including the lack of freezing winters, but is interpreted as showing that there was a summer peak in precipitation - modern analogs are best sought on the summer-wet east coasts (e.g., China, Japan, South Korea) not the winter-wet west coasts of present-day northern temperate continents (e.g., Pacific northwest of North America). Highly seasonal 'monsoon-type' summer-wet precipitation regimes (i.e., summer precip./winter precip. > 3.0) seem to characterize Eocene hyperthermal conditions in several regions of the earth, including the Arctic and Antarctic, based on both climate model sensitivity experiments and the paleoclimate proxy evidence. The leaf physiognomy proxy previously applied to estimate Arctic Paleogene precipitation was leaf area analysis (LAA), a correlation between mean leaf size in woody dicot vegetation and annual precipitation. New data from modern monsoonal sites, however demonstrates that for deciduous-dicot dominated vegetation, summer precipitation determines mean leaf size, not annual totals, and therefore that under markedly seasonal precipitation and/or light regimes that summer precipitation is being estimated using LAA. Presented here is a new analysis of a leaf macrofloras from 3 separate florules of the Margaret Formation (Split Lake, Stenkul Fiord and Strathcona Fiord) from Ellesmere Island that are placed stratigraphically as early Eocene, and likely fall within Eocene thermal maximum 1 (ETM1; = the 'PETM') or ETM2. These floras are each characterized by a mix of large-leafed and small-leafed dicot taxa, with overall mean leaf size across all leaf morphotypes comparable to that previously reported for late Paleocene to middle Eocene floras from Ellesmere and Axel Heiberg islands of Nunavut. Applying the conventional leaf area analysis to the putatively ETM1 floras yielded estimates of mean annual precipitation 100-200cm/yr, consistent with the previous reports for the late Paleocene to middle Eocene. CLAMP analysis applied to these floras yields growing season precipitation comparable to the annual precipitation estimate from leaf area analysis. These data are interpreted as reflecting high summer precipitation in the Arctic during the late Paleocene to middle Eocene, including ETM1, as precipitation in the dark polar winter months will have had no effect on leaf size while the trees were dormant, corroborating the results from Eocene wood chemistry. High summer precipitation (i.e., light-season = wettest season) in the Eocene Arctic during hyperthermals would have contributed to regional warmth.

[Export of Total Organic Carbon (TOC) from Karst Watershed and Its Influencing Factors: An Example from Xueyudong Underground River System, Chongqing].

PubMed

Wang, Qiao-lian; Jiang, Yong-jun; Chen, Yu

2016-05-15

High time-resolution auto-monitoring techniques were used to obtain the data for TOC and hydrogeochemistry of groundwater, and air temperature and precipitation from August 2014 to September 2015 in Xueyu Cave karst watershed, Southwest China, and then the principal component regression model was used to reveal the variation of TOC in groundwater and its influencing factors. The results indicated that there were significant variations of the TOC and hydrogeochemistry of groundwater in seasonal timescale. The temperature and specific conductance (SpC) of groundwater showed higher values in summer and lower values in winter; while an opposite variation pattern for pH in groundwater was observed, and the TOC and turbidity of groundwater showed higher values in winter and summer seasons and lower values in spring and autumn seasons. Meanwhile, high time-resolution data revealed that the TOC of groundwater responded quickly to rainfall events with different intensities. Generally, an increasing trend for TOC in groundwater was observed during raining and a decreasing trend for TOC in groundwater was shown after rainfall events, especially after storm events due to the dilution effect of rainfall. The export and variations of the TOC in groundwater were mainly controlled by the precipitation and discharge of underground river in the study area, as revealed by the principal component regression model. The TOC increased with the increase of the precipitation, discharge and turbidity of groundwater, and declined with the increase of air temperature and pH of groundwater.

Comparisons of Rain Estimates from Ground Radar and Satellite Over Mountainous Regions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Xin; Kidd, Chris; Tao, Jing; Barros, Ana

2016-01-01

A high-resolution rainfall product merging surface radar and an enhanced gauge network is used as a reference to examine two operational surface radar rainfall products over mountain areas. The two operational rainfall products include radar-only and conventional-gauge-corrected radar rainfall products. Statistics of rain occurrence and rain amount including their geographical, seasonal, and diurnal variations are examined using 3-year data. It is found that the three surface radar rainfall products in general agree well with one another over mountainous regions in terms of horizontal mean distributions of rain occurrence and rain amount. Frequency of rain occurrence and fraction of rain amount also indicate similar distribution patterns as a function of rain intensity. The diurnal signals of precipitation over mountain ridges are well captured and joint distributions of coincident raining samples indicate reasonable correlations during both summer and winter. Factors including undetected low-level precipitation, limited availability of gauges for correcting the Z-R relationship over the mountains, and radar beam blocking by mountains are clearly noticed in the two conventional radar rainfall products. Both radar-only and conventional-gauge-corrected radar rainfall products underestimate the rain occurrence and fraction of rain amount at intermediate and heavy rain intensities. Comparison of PR and TMI against a surface radar-only rainfall product indicates that the PR performs equally well with the high-resolution radar-only rainfall product over complex terrains at intermediate and heavy rain intensities during the summer and winter. TMI, on the other hand, requires improvement to retrieve wintertime precipitation over mountain areas.

Precipitation in the Karakoram-Himalaya: a CMIP5 view

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palazzi, Elisa; von Hardenberg, Jost; Terzago, Silvia; Provenzale, Antonello

2015-07-01

This work analyzes the properties of precipitation in the Hindu-Kush Karakoram Himalaya region as simulated by thirty-two state-of-the-art global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). We separately consider the Hindu-Kush Karakoram (HKK) in the west and the Himalaya in the east. These two regions are characterized by different precipitation climatologies, which are associated with different circulation patterns. Historical model simulations are compared with the Climate Research Unit (CRU) and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) precipitation data in the period 1901-2005. Future precipitation is analyzed for the two representative concentration pathways (RCP) RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. We find that the multi-model ensemble mean and most individual models exhibit a wet bias with respect to CRU and GPCC observations in both regions and for all seasons. The models differ greatly in the seasonal climatology of precipitation which they reproduce in the HKK. The CMIP5 models predict wetter future conditions in the Himalaya in summer, with a gradual precipitation increase throughout the 21st century. Wetter summer future conditions are also predicted by most models in the RCP 8.5 scenario for the HKK, while on average no significant change can be detected in winter precipitation for both regions. In general, no single model (or group of models) emerges as that providing the best results for all the statistics considered, and the large spread in the behavior of individual models suggests to consider multi-model ensemble means with extreme care.

Differential ecophysiological response of deciduous shrubs and a graminoid to long-term experimental snow reductions and additions in moist acidic tundra, northern Alaska

Treesearch

Robert R. Pattison; Jeffrey M. Welker

2014-01-01

Changes in winter precipitation that include both decreases and increases in winter snow are underway across the Arctic. In this study, we used a 14-year experiment that has increased and decreased winter snow in the moist acidic tussock tundra of northern Alaska to understand impacts of variation in winter snow depth on summer leaf-level ecophysiology of two deciduous...

Changes in precipitation regime in the Baltic countries in 1966-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaagus, Jaak; Briede, Agrita; Rimkus, Egidijus; Sepp, Mait

2018-01-01

The aim of the study was to analyse trends and regime shifts in time series of monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation in the eastern Baltic countries (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia) during 1966-2015. Data from 54 stations with nearly homogeneous series were used. The Mann-Kendall test was used for trend analysis and the Rodionov test for the analysis of regime shifts. Rather few statistically significant trends ( p < 0.05) and regime shifts were determined. The highest increase (by approximately 10 mm per decade) was observed in winter precipitation when a significant trend was found at the large majority of stations. For monthly precipitation, increasing trends were detected at many stations in January, February and June. Weak negative trends revealed at few stations in April and September. Annual precipitation has generally increased, but the trend is mostly insignificant. The analysis of regime shifts revealed some significant abrupt changes, the most important of which were upward shifts in winter, in January and February precipitation at many stations since 1990 or in some other years (1989, 1995). A return shift in the time series of February precipitation occurred since 2003. The most significant increase in precipitation was determined in Latvia and the weakest increase in Lithuania.

Stable isotope compositions of waters in the Great Basin, United States 3. Comparison of groundwaters with modern precipitation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, G.I.; Friedman, I.; Veronda, G.; Johnson, C.A.

2002-01-01

Groundwater samples from wells and springs, scattered over most of the Great Basin province, were collected and analyzed for their isotopic makeup. They were augmented by previously published isotopic data on groundwaters from southeast California and by several hundred unpublished isotopic analyses. The ratio of 2H (deuterium, D) to 1H, in water samples from valleys in parts of California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, and Utah, are here compared with the winter, summer, and annual isotopic compositions of precipitation falling in or near the sampled areas. The main goal of this study was to identify basins where the groundwaters have isotopic compositions that are "lighter" (depleted in the heavier isotope, D) relative to modern winter precipitation. Where these basins do not adjoin substantially higher terrain, we consider those light groundwaters to be of Pleistocene age and thus more than 10,000 years old. Where the groundwater is 10 to 19??? lighter than local winter precipitation, we consider it to be possibly an indication of Pleistocene water; where the ??D makeup is >20??? lighter, we consider it to be probably Pleistocene water. More than 80 sites underlain by waters of possible or probable Pleistocene age were identified.

Intraseasonal oscillation associated with the Indian winter monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dimri, A. P.

2013-02-01

The Indian winter (December-February) monsoon (IWM) contributes almost one third of the annual precipitation over the western Himalayas (WH). In winter, eastward moving synoptic weather systems, or "western disturbances" (WDs), yield precipitation in either liquid or solid form. Although previous studies have examined the interannual variation (IAV) of the IWM, little is known of the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) associated with the IWM. The present study examines the ISO and its plausible effects on the IWM using 28 years (1980-2007) of precipitation, height, wind, and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) fields. The dominant ISO mode is found during the active IWM phase with well-defined cyclonic circulation in the midtroposphere over the WH. The relationship between OLR and circulation indicates that this ISO mode is driven by moisture convergence. During the peak phase, a strong moisture influx from the Arabian Sea dominates. This moisture incursion adds to the precipitation over the WH. Successive growth and decay of anomalous cyclonic and anticyclonic circulation takes place within ISO periodicity. Strong convection always seems to precede anomalous cyclonic circulation. In addition, in-phase wind and convection (over the WH region) are associated with the ISO phase.

Significantly Increased Extreme Precipitation Expected in Europe and North America from Extratropical Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawcroft, M.; Hodges, K.; Walsh, E.; Zappa, G.

2017-12-01

For the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, changes in circulation are key to determining the impacts of climate warming. The mechanisms governing these circulation changes are complex, leading to the well documented uncertainty in projections of the future location of the mid-latitude storm tracks simulated by climate models. These storms are the primary source of precipitation for North America and Europe and generate many of the large-scale precipitation extremes associated with flooding and severe economic loss. Here, we show that in spite of the uncertainty in circulation changes, by analysing the behaviour of the storms themselves, we find entirely consistent and robust projections across an ensemble of climate models. In particular, we find that projections of change in the most intensely precipitating storms (above the present day 99th percentile) in the Northern Hemisphere are substantial and consistent across models, with large increases in the frequency of both summer (June-August, +226±68%) and winter (December-February, +186±34%) extreme storms by the end of the century. Regionally, both North America (summer +202±129%, winter +232±135%) and Europe (summer +390±148%, winter +318±114%) are projected to experience large increases in the frequency of intensely precipitating storms. These changes are thermodynamic and driven by surface warming, rather than by changes in the dynamical behaviour of the storms. Such changes in storm behaviour have the potential to have major impacts on society given intensely precipitating storms are responsible for many large-scale flooding events.

1988 Wet deposition temporal and spatial patterns in North America

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Simpson, J.C.; Olsen, A.R.; Bittner, E.A.

1992-03-01

The focus of this report is on North American wet deposition temporal patterns from 1979 to 1988 and spatial patterns for 1988. It is the third in a series of reports that investigate the patterns of annual precipitation-weighted average concentration and annual deposition for nine ion species: hydrogen, sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, calcium, chloride, sodium, potassium, and magnesium. Mosaic maps, based on surface estimation using kriging, display concentration and deposition spatial patterns of pH, hydrogen, sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, and calcium ion species for 1988 annual, winter, and summer periods. Temporal pattern analyses use a subset of 35 sites over a 10-yearmore » (1979--1988) period and an expanded subset of 137 sites, with greater spatial coverage, over a 7-year (1982--1988) period. The 10-year period represents the longest period with wet deposition monitoring data available that has a sufficient number of sites with data of known quality to allow a descriptive summary of annual temporal patterns. Sen's median trend estimate and Kendall's seasonal tau (KST) test are calculated for each ion species concentration and deposition at each site in both subsets.« less

On the unseasonal flooding over the Central United States during December 2015 and January 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wei; Villarini, Gabriele

2017-11-01

The unseasonal winter heavy rainfall and flooding that occurred during December 2015-January 2016 had large socio-economic impacts for the central United States. Here we examine the climatic conditions that led to the observed extreme precipitation, and compare and contrast them with the 1982/1983 and 2011/2012 winters. The large precipitation amounts associated with the 1982/1983 and 2015/2016 winter flooding were linked to the strongly positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with large moisture transported from the Gulf of Mexico. The anomalous upper-level trough in the 1982- and 2015- Decembers over the western United States was also favorable for strong precipitation by leading the cold front over the central United States. In contrast, the extremely positive NAO in December 2011 did not lead to heavy rainfall and flooding because the Azores High center shifted too far westward (like a blocking high) preventing moisture from moving towards the central and southeastern United States.

Long-term growth-increment chronologies reveal diverse influences of climate forcing on freshwater and forest biota in the Pacific Northwest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Black, Bryan A.; Dunham, Jason B.; Blundon, Brett W.; Brim-Box, Jayne; Tepley, Alan J.

2015-01-01

Analyses of how organisms are likely to respond to a changing climate have focused largely on the direct effects of warming temperatures, though changes in other variables may also be important, particularly the amount and timing of precipitation. Here, we develop a network of eight growth-increment width chronologies for freshwater mussel species in the Pacific Northwest, United States and integrate them with tree-ring data to evaluate how terrestrial and aquatic indicators respond to hydroclimatic variability, including river discharge and precipitation. Annual discharge averaged across water years (October 1–September 30) was highly synchronous among river systems and imparted a coherent pattern among mussel chronologies. The leading principal component of the five longest mussel chronologies (1982–2003; PC1mussel) accounted for 47% of the dataset variability and negatively correlated with the leading principal component of river discharge (PC1discharge; r = −0.88; P < 0.0001). PC1mussel and PC1discharge were closely linked to regional wintertime precipitation patterns across the Pacific Northwest, the season in which the vast majority of annual precipitation arrives. Mussel growth was also indirectly related to tree radial growth, though the nature of the relationships varied across the landscape. Negative correlations occurred in forests where tree growth tends to be limited by drought while positive correlations occurred in forests where tree growth tends to be limited by deep or lingering snowpack. Overall, this diverse assemblage of chronologies illustrates the importance of winter precipitation to terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and suggests that a complexity of climate responses must be considered when estimating the biological impacts of climate variability and change.

Long-term growth-increment chronologies reveal diverse influences of climate forcing on freshwater and forest biota in the Pacific Northwest.

PubMed

Black, Bryan A; Dunham, Jason B; Blundon, Brett W; Brim-Box, Jayne; Tepley, Alan J

2015-02-01

Analyses of how organisms are likely to respond to a changing climate have focused largely on the direct effects of warming temperatures, though changes in other variables may also be important, particularly the amount and timing of precipitation. Here, we develop a network of eight growth-increment width chronologies for freshwater mussel species in the Pacific Northwest, United States and integrate them with tree-ring data to evaluate how terrestrial and aquatic indicators respond to hydroclimatic variability, including river discharge and precipitation. Annual discharge averaged across water years (October 1-September 30) was highly synchronous among river systems and imparted a coherent pattern among mussel chronologies. The leading principal component of the five longest mussel chronologies (1982-2003; PC1(mussel)) accounted for 47% of the dataset variability and negatively correlated with the leading principal component of river discharge (PC1(discharge); r = -0.88; P < 0.0001). PC1(mussel) and PC1(discharge) were closely linked to regional wintertime precipitation patterns across the Pacific Northwest, the season in which the vast majority of annual precipitation arrives. Mussel growth was also indirectly related to tree radial growth, though the nature of the relationships varied across the landscape. Negative correlations occurred in forests where tree growth tends to be limited by drought while positive correlations occurred in forests where tree growth tends to be limited by deep or lingering snowpack. Overall, this diverse assemblage of chronologies illustrates the importance of winter precipitation to terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and suggests that a complexity of climate responses must be considered when estimating the biological impacts of climate variability and change. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Downscaling large-scale circulation to local winter climate using neural network techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cavazos Perez, Maria Tereza

1998-12-01

The severe impacts of climate variability on society reveal the increasing need for improving regional-scale climate diagnosis. A new downscaling approach for climate diagnosis is developed here. It is based on neural network techniques that derive transfer functions from the large-scale atmospheric controls to the local winter climate in northeastern Mexico and southeastern Texas during the 1985-93 period. A first neural network (NN) model employs time-lagged component scores from a rotated principal component analysis of SLP, 500-hPa heights, and 1000-500 hPa thickness as predictors of daily precipitation. The model is able to reproduce the phase and, to some decree, the amplitude of large rainfall events, reflecting the influence of the large-scale circulation. Large errors are found over the Sierra Madre, over the Gulf of Mexico, and during El Nino events, suggesting an increase in the importance of meso-scale rainfall processes. However, errors are also due to the lack of randomization of the input data and the absence of local atmospheric predictors such as moisture. Thus, a second NN model uses time-lagged specific humidity at the Earth's surface and at the 700 hPa level, SLP tendency, and 700-500 hPa thickness as input to a self-organizing map (SOM) that pre-classifies the atmospheric fields into different patterns. The results from the SOM classification document that negative (positive) anomalies of winter precipitation over the region are associated with: (1) weaker (stronger) Aleutian low; (2) stronger (weaker) North Pacific high; (3) negative (positive) phase of the Pacific North American pattern; and (4) La Nina (El Nino) events. The SOM atmospheric patterns are then used as input to a feed-forward NN that captures over 60% of the daily rainfall variance and 94% of the daily minimum temperature variance over the region. This demonstrates the ability of artificial neural network models to simulate realistic relationships on daily time scales. The results of this research also reveal that the SOM pre-classification of days with similar atmospheric conditions succeeded in emphasizing the differences of the atmospheric variance conducive to extreme events. This resulted in a downscaling NN model that is highly sensitive to local-scale weather anomalies associated with El Nino and extreme cold events.

Planting Patterns and Deficit Irrigation Strategies to Improve Wheat Production and Water Use Efficiency under Simulated Rainfall Conditions

PubMed Central

Ali, Shahzad; Xu, Yueyue; Ma, Xiangcheng; Ahmad, Irshad; Kamran, Muhammad; Dong, Zhaoyun; Cai, Tie; Jia, Qianmin; Ren, Xiaolong; Zhang, Peng; Jia, Zhikuan

2017-01-01

The ridge furrow (RF) rainwater harvesting system is an efficient way to enhance rainwater accessibility for crops and increase winter wheat productivity in semi-arid regions. However, the RF system has not been promoted widely in the semi-arid regions, which primarily exist in remote hilly areas. To exploit its efficiency on a large-scale, the RF system needs to be tested at different amounts of simulated precipitation combined with deficit irrigation. Therefore, in during the 2015–16 and 2016–17 winter wheat growing seasons, we examined the effects of two planting patterns: (1) the RF system and (2) traditional flat planting (TF) with three deficit irrigation levels (150, 75, 0 mm) under three simulated rainfall intensity (1: 275, 2: 200, 3: 125 mm), and determined soil water storage profile, evapotranspiration rate, grain filling rate, biomass, grain yield, and net economic return. Over the two study years, the RF treatment with 200 mm simulated rainfall and 150 mm deficit irrigation (RF2150) significantly (P < 0.05) increased soil water storage in the depth of (200 cm); reduced ET at the field scale by 33%; increased total dry matter accumulation per plant; increased the grain-filling rate; and improved biomass (11%) and grain (19%) yields. The RF2150 treatment thus achieved a higher WUE (76%) and RIWP (21%) compared to TF. Grain-filling rates, grain weight of superior and inferior grains, and net economic profit of winter wheat responded positively to simulated rainfall and deficit irrigation under both planting patterns. The 200 mm simulated rainfall amount was more economical than other precipitation amounts, and led to slight increases in soil water storage, total dry matter per plant, and grain yield; there were no significant differences when the simulated rainfall was increased beyond 200 mm. The highest (12,593 Yuan ha−1) net income profit was attained using the RF system at 200 mm rainfall and 150 mm deficit irrigation, which also led to significantly higher grain yield, WUE, and RIWP than all other treatments. Thus, we recommend the RF2150 treatment for higher productivity, income profit, and improve WUE in the dry-land farming system of China. PMID:28878787

Seasonality intensification and long-term winter cooling as a part of the Late Pliocene climate development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klotz, Stefan; Fauquette, Séverine; Combourieu-Nebout, Nathalie; Uhl, Dieter; Suc, Jean-Pierre; Mosbrugger, Volker

2006-01-01

A mutual climatic range method is applied to the Mediterranean marine pollen record of Semaforo (Vrica section, Calabria, Italy) covering the period from ∼2.46 Ma to ∼2.11 Ma. The method yields detailed information on summer, annual and winter temperatures and on precipitation during the nine obliquity and precession-controlled 'glacial' periods (marine isotope stages 96 to 80) and eight 'interglacial' periods (marine isotope stages 95 to 81) characterising this time interval. The reconstruction reveals higher temperatures of at least 2.8 °C in mean annual and 2.2 °C in winter temperatures, and 500 mm in precipitation during the 'interglacials' as compared to the present-day climate in the study area. During the 'glacials', temperatures are generally lower as compared to the present-day climate in the region, but precipitation is equivalent. Along the consecutive 'interglacials', a trend toward a reduction in annual and winter temperatures by more than 2.3 °C, and toward a higher seasonality is observed. Along the consecutive 'glacials', a trend toward a strong reduction in all temperature parameters of at least 1.6 °C is reconstructed. Climatic amplitudes of 'interglacial-glacial' transitions increase from the older to the younger cycles for summer and annual temperatures. The cross-spectral analyses suggest obliquity related warm/humid-cold/dry 'interglacial-glacial' cycles which are superimposed by precession related warm/dry- cold/humid cycles. A time displacement in the development of temperatures and precipitation is indicated for the obliquity band by temperatures generally leading precipitation change at ∼4 kyr, and on the precession band of ∼9.6 kyr in maximum.

Relative influence of human harvest, carnivores, and weather on adult female elk survival across western North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brodie, Jedediah; Johnson, Heather; Mitchell, Michael; Zager, Peter; Proffitt, Kelly; Hebblewhite, Mark; Kauffman, Matthew; Johnson, Bruce; Bissonette, John; Bishop, Chad; Gude, Justin; Herbert, Jeff; Hersey, Kent R.; Hurley, Mark; Lukacs, Paul M.; McCorquodale, Scott; McIntire, Eliot; Nowak, Josh; Sawyer, Hall; Smith, Douglas; White, P.J.

2013-01-01

Well-informed management of harvested species requires understanding how changing ecological conditions affect demography and population dynamics, information that is lacking for many species. We have limited understanding of the relative influence of carnivores, harvest, weather and forage availability on elk Cervus elaphus demography, despite the ecological and economic importance of this species. We assessed adult female survival, a key vital rate for population dynamics, from 2746 radio-collared elk in 45 populations across western North America that experience wide variation in carnivore assemblage, harvest, weather and habitat conditions. Proportional hazard analysis revealed that 'baseline' (i.e. not related to human factors) mortality was higher with very high winter precipitation, particularly in populations sympatric with wolves Canis lupus. Mortality may increase via nutritional stress and heightened vulnerability to predation in snowy winters. Baseline mortality was unrelated to puma Puma concolor presence, forest cover or summer forage productivity. Cause-specific mortality analyses showed that wolves and all carnivore species combined had additive effects on baseline elk mortality, but only reduced survival by <2%. When human factors were included, ‘total’ adult mortality was solely related to harvest; the influence of native carnivores was compensatory. Annual total mortality rates were lowest in populations sympatric with both pumas and wolves because managers reduced female harvest in areas with abundant or diverse carnivores. Mortality from native carnivores peaked in late winter and early spring, while harvest-induced mortality peaked in autumn. The strong peak in harvest-induced mortality during the autumn hunting season decreased as the number of native carnivore species increased. Synthesis and applications. Elevated baseline adult female elk mortality from wolves in years with high winter precipitation could affect elk abundance as winters across the western US become drier and wolves recolonize portions of the region. In the absence of human harvest, wolves had additive, although limited, effects on mortality. However, human harvest, and its apparent use by managers to offset predation, primarily controls overall variation in adult female mortality. Altering harvest quotas is thus a strong tool for offsetting impacts of carnivore recolonization and shifting weather patterns on elk across western North America.

Thermal Properties and Energy Fluxes in Pre-monsoon Season of 2016 at the Ponkar Debris-Covered Glacier, Manang, Nepal Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chand, M. B.; Kayastha, R. B.; Armstrong, R. L.

2016-12-01

Himalayan glaciers are characterized by the presence of extensive debris cover in ablation areas. It is essential to understand the thermal properties and assess the effect of debris in glacier ice melt rate in debris-covered glaciers. Meteorological conditions are recorded on the lower ablation zone of the debris-covered Ponkar Glacier, Bhimthang, Manang, Nepal during pre-monsoon season of 2016. Debris temperature at different depths is monitored for winter and pre-monsoon season to estimate the effective heat conduction. Similarly, melt under the debris is also measured for pre-monsoon season. The incoming and outgoing shortwave radiations are measured at 2 m above the surface and other variables including air temperature, humidity, wind speed, and precipitation are used to estimate surface energy balance. Energy flux is dominated by net shortwave radiation as the foremost source of melting, where contribution of net longwave radiation, sensible, latent, and conductive heat flux is low. The daily average temperature gradients of the debris layer from surface to 30 cm below for winter and pre-monsoon seasons are 0.04 oC cm-1 and 0.23 oC cm-1, respectively. Debris thermal conductivities are 0.30 W m-1 K-1 and 1.69 W m-1 K-1 for the winter and pre-monsoon season, respectively. The higher value of conductivity during pre-monsoon season is due to the higher air temperature and increased precipitation compared to the winter months. The daily mean measured ice melt under a debris layer of 11-20 cm ranges from 0.6 to 1.1 cm. Estimation of melt at a few points can be used to estimate the general melting pattern for the glacier surface, which can be improved by using the spatial distribution of debris thickness and surface temperature.

Contingency in the Direction and Mechanics of Soil Organic Matter Responses to Increased Rainfall

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Berhe, Asmeret A.; Suttle, K. Blake; Burton, Sarah D.

2012-09-03

Shifts in regional precipitation patterns will be a major component of global climate change. Rainfall will show greater and more variable changes in response to rising earth surface temperatures than most other climatic variables, and will be a major driver of ecosystem change. We studied the consequences of predicted changes in California’s rainy season for storage and stabilization mechanisms of soil organic matter (SOM). In a controlled and replicated experiment, we amended rainfall over large plots of natural grassland in accordance with alternative scenarios of future climate change. Results show that increases in annual rainfall have important consequences for soilmore » C storage, but that the strength and even direction of these effects depend entirely on seasonal timing. Rainfall increases during the winter rainy season led to pronounced C loss from soil while rainfall increases after the typical rainy season increased soil C stocks. Analysis of mineral-OM associations reveals a powerful mechanism underlying this difference: increased winter rainfall vastly diminished the role of Fe and Al oxides in SOM stabilization. Dithionite extractable crystalline Fe oxides explained more than 35 percent of the variability in C storage in ambient control and spring-addition treatments, compared to less than 0.01 percent in the winter-addition treatment. Likewise, poorly crystalline Fe and Al oxides explained more than 25 and 40 percent of the variability in C storage, respectively, in the control and spring-addition treatments compared to less than 5 percent in the -winter-addition treatment. Increases in annual precipitation identical in amount but at three-month offsets produced opposite effects on soil C storage. These results highlight the complexity inherent in biospheric feedbacks to the climate system, and the way that careful experimentation can penetrate that complexity to improve predictions of ecosystem and climatic change.« less

Impacts of El Niño and El Niño Modoki on the precipitation in Colombia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Córdoba Machado, Samir; Palomino Lemus, Reiner; Raquel Gámiz Fortis, Sonia; Castro Díez, Yolanda; Jesús Esteban Parra, María

2015-04-01

The influence of the tropical Pacific SST on precipitation in Colombia is examined using 341 stations covering the period 1979-2009. Through a Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) the two main coupled variability modes show SST patterns clearly associated with El Niño (EN) and El Niño Modoki (ENM), respectively, presenting great coupling strength with the corresponding seasonal precipitation modes in Colombia. The results reveal that, mainly in winter and summer, EN and ENM events are associated with a significant rainfall decrease over northern, central, and western Colombia. The opposite effect occurs in some localities during spring, summer, and autumn. The southwestern region of Colombia exhibits an opposite behaviour connected to EN and ENM events during years when both events do not coexist, showing that the seasonal precipitation response is not linear. The Partial Regression Analysis used to quantify separately the influence of the two types of ENSO on seasonal precipitation shows the importance of both types in the reconstruction process. The results obtained in this study establish the base for modeling and forecasting the seasonal precipitation in Colombia using the tropical Pacific SST associated with El Niño and El Niño Modoki. Keywords: Seasonal precipitation, Tropical Pacific SST, El Niño, El Niño Modoki, Singular Value Decomposition, Colombia. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This work has been financed by the projects P11-RNM-7941 (Junta de Andalucía-Spain) and CGL2013-48539-R (MINECO-Spain, FEDER).

Climate change projections for winter precipitation over Tropical America using statistical downscaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palomino-Lemus, Reiner; Córdoba-Machado, Samir; Quishpe-Vásquez, César; García-Valdecasas-Ojeda, Matilde; Raquel Gámiz-Fortis, Sonia; Castro-Díez, Yolanda; Jesús Esteban-Parra, María

2017-04-01

In this study the Principal Component Regression (PCR) method has been used as statistical downscaling technique for simulating boreal winter precipitation in Tropical America during the period 1950-2010, and then for generating climate change projections for 2071-2100 period. The study uses the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC, version 6) data set over the Tropical America region [30°N-30°S, 120°W-30°W] as predictand variable in the downscaling model. The mean monthly sea level pressure (SLP) from the National Center for Environmental Prediction - National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR reanalysis project), has been used as predictor variable, covering a more extended area [30°N-30°S, 180°W-30°W]. Also, the SLP outputs from 20 GCMs, taken from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) have been used. The model data include simulations with historical atmospheric concentrations and future projections for the representative concentration pathways RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. The ability of the different GCMs to simulate the winter precipitation in the study area for present climate (1971-2000) was analyzed by calculating the differences between the simulated and observed precipitation values. Additionally, the statistical significance at 95% confidence level of these differences has been estimated by means of the bilateral rank sum test of Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney. Finally, to project winter precipitation in the area for the period 2071-2100, the downscaling model, recalibrated for the total period 1950-2010, was applied to the SLP outputs of the GCMs under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results show that, generally, for present climate the statistical downscaling shows a high ability to faithfully reproduce the precipitation field, while the simulations performed directly by using not downscaled outputs of GCMs strongly distort the precipitation field. For future climate, the projected predictions under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios show large areas with significant changes. For the RCP2.6 scenario, projected results present a predominance of very moderate decreases in rainfall, although significant in some models. Keywords: climate change projections, precipitation, Tropical America, statistical downscaling. Acknowledgements: This work has been financed by the projects P11-RNM-7941 (Junta de Andalucía-Spain) and CGL2013-48539-R (MINECO-Spain, FEDER).

Ecohydrologic relationships of two juniper woodlands with different precipitation regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ochoa, C. G.; Guldan, S. J.; Deboodt, T.; Fernald, A.; Ray, G.

2015-12-01

The significant expansion of juniper (Juniperus spp.) woodlands throughout the western U.S. during the last two centuries has disrupted important ecological functions and hydrologic processes. The relationships between water and vegetation distribution are highly impacted by the ongoing shift from shrub steppe and grassland to woodland-dominated landscapes. We investigated vegetation dynamics and hydrologic processes occurring in two distinct juniper landscapes with different precipitation regimes in the Intermountain West region: A winter snow-dominated (Oregon) and a summer rain-dominated with some winter precipitation (New Mexico) landscape. Results from the Oregon site showed marginal differences (1-2%) in soil moisture in treated vs untreated watersheds throughout the dry and wet seasons. In general, soil moisture was greater in the treated watershed in both seasons. Canopy cover affected soil moisture over time. Perennial grass cover was positively correlated with changes in soil moisture, whereas juniper cover was negatively correlated with changes in soil moisture. Shallow groundwater response observed in upland and valley monitoring wells indicate there are temporary hydrologic connections between upland and valley locations during the winter precipitation season. Results from the New Mexico site provided valuable information regarding timing and intensity of monsoon-driven precipitation and the rainfall threshold (5 mm/15 min) that triggers runoff. Long-term vegetation dynamics and hydrologic processes were evaluated based on pre- and post-juniper removal (70%) in three watersheds. In general, less runoff and greater forage response was observed in the treated watersheds. During rainfall events, soil moisture was less under juniper canopy compared with inter-canopy; this difference in soil moisture was intensified during high intensity, short duration rainstorms in the summer months. We found that winter snow precipitation helped recharge soil moisture prior to plant growth in the springtime, but it did not generate streamflow. Study results provide valuable information towards understanding ecohydrologic differences and similarities of woody vegetation expansion in semiarid areas on both sides of the continental divide in the Intermountain West.

Changes in the Winter-Time Storminess over the North Atlantic, Associated with the 1.5°C and 2°C Levels of Global Warming.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barcikowska, M. J.; Weaver, S. J.; Feser, F.; Schenk, F.

2017-12-01

This study investigates the changes in extreme winter-time weather conditions over the NH midlatitudes. These conditions are to a large degree caused by extratropical storms, often associated with very intense and hazardous precipitation and wind. Although the skill of CMIP5 models in capturing these extremes is improved when compared to the previous generations, the spatial and temporal resolution of the models still remains a primary reason for the deficiencies. Therefore, many features of the storms projected for the future remain inconsistent. Here we are using the high-res horizontal (0.25° lat x lon) and temporal (3hr) output of the HAPPI experiment. This output facilitates not only an implicit extraction of storm tracks but also an analysis of the storm intensity, in terms of their maximum wind and rainfall, at subdaily time-scales. The analysis of simulated present climate shows an improved spatial pattern of large-scale circulation over North America and Europe, as compared to the CMIP5-generation models, and consequently a reduced zonal bias in storm tracks pattern. The information provided at subdaily time scale provides much more realistic representation of the magnitude of the extremes. These advances significantly contribute to our understanding of differential climate impacts between 1.5°C and 2°C levels of global warming. The spatial pattern of the north-eastward shift of storm tracks, derived from the recent CMIP5 future projections, is remarkably refined here. For example, increasing storminess expands towards Scandinavia, and not towards the north-central Europe. Derived spatial features of the storm intensity, e.g. increase in wind and precipitation on the west coasts of both the British Isles and Scandinavia underlines the relevancy of the results for the local communities and potential climate change adaptation initiatives.

Where do the treeless tundra areas of northern highlands fit in the global biome system: toward an ecologically natural subdivision of the tundra biome.

PubMed

Virtanen, Risto; Oksanen, Lauri; Oksanen, Tarja; Cohen, Juval; Forbes, Bruce C; Johansen, Bernt; Käyhkö, Jukka; Olofsson, Johan; Pulliainen, Jouni; Tømmervik, Hans

2016-01-01

According to some treatises, arctic and alpine sub-biomes are ecologically similar, whereas others find them highly dissimilar. Most peculiarly, large areas of northern tundra highlands fall outside of the two recent subdivisions of the tundra biome. We seek an ecologically natural resolution to this long-standing and far-reaching problem. We studied broad-scale patterns in climate and vegetation along the gradient from Siberian tundra via northernmost Fennoscandia to the alpine habitats of European middle-latitude mountains, as well as explored those patterns within Fennoscandian tundra based on climate-vegetation patterns obtained from a fine-scale vegetation map. Our analyses reveal that ecologically meaningful January-February snow and thermal conditions differ between different types of tundra. High precipitation and mild winter temperatures prevail on middle-latitude mountains, low precipitation and usually cold winters prevail on high-latitude tundra, and Scandinavian mountains show intermediate conditions. Similarly, heath-like plant communities differ clearly between middle latitude mountains (alpine) and high-latitude tundra vegetation, including its altitudinal extension on Scandinavian mountains. Conversely, high abundance of snowbeds and large differences in the composition of dwarf shrub heaths distinguish the Scandinavian mountain tundra from its counterparts in Russia and the north Fennoscandian inland. The European tundra areas fall into three ecologically rather homogeneous categories: the arctic tundra, the oroarctic tundra of northern heights and mountains, and the genuinely alpine tundra of middle-latitude mountains. Attempts to divide the tundra into two sub-biomes have resulted in major discrepancies and confusions, as the oroarctic areas are included in the arctic tundra in some biogeographic maps and in the alpine tundra in others. Our analyses based on climate and vegetation criteria thus seem to resolve the long-standing biome delimitation problem, help in consistent characterization of research sites, and create a basis for further biogeographic and ecological research in global tundra environments.

Too hot to move? Objectively assessed seasonal changes in Australian children's physical activity.

PubMed

Ridgers, Nicola D; Salmon, Jo; Timperio, Anna

2015-06-19

Seasonal variations may influence children's physical activity patterns. The aim of this study was to examine how children's objectively-measured physical activity differed across seasons, and whether different seasonal patterns were observed for boys and girls. Three hundred and twenty-six children aged 8-11 years from nine primary schools in Melbourne, Australia, participated in the study. Physical activity was measured every 15-s using hip-mounted GT3X+ ActiGraph accelerometers for seven consecutive days in the Winter (n = 249), Spring (n = 221), Summer (n = 174) and Autumn (n = 152) school terms. Time spent in moderate (MPA), vigorous (VPA) and moderate- to vigorous-intensity physical activity (MVPA) at each time point was derived using age-specific cut-points. Meteorological data (maximum temperature, precipitation, daylight hours) were obtained daily during each season. Longitudinal data were analysed using multilevel analyses, adjusted for age, sex, accelerometer wear time, number of valid days, and meteorological variables. Compared to Winter, children engaged in significantly less MPA (-5.0 min) and MVPA (-7.8 min) in Summer. Girls engaged in less MVPA in Spring (-18 min) and Summer (-9.2 min) and more MVPA in Autumn (9.9 min) compared to Winter. Significant changes in MPA and VPA bout frequency and duration were also observed. Significant decreases in VPA bout frequency (3.4 bouts) and duration (2.6 min) were observed for girls in Spring compared to Winter. No significant seasonal changes were observed for boys for all intensities and physical activity accumulation. Physical activity decreased in Summer compared to Winter, contrasting previous research that typically reports that children are most active in summer. Greater fluctuations were observed for girls' activity levels. In addition, girls' activity duration and bouts appeared to be more susceptible to seasonal changes compared to boys. The results suggest that strategies to promote physical activity may be needed in Australia during the hot summer months, particularly for girls.

How Winter Time Atmospheric Stability Influences PM2.5 Concentration in Different Complex Terrains; Beijing in China vs Fairbanks in Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karandana Gamalathge, T. D.; Green, M.

2017-12-01

Consequences of air pollution is known to majority of the global population. Small particles or aerosols play a significant role in global climate change, and increasing the number of people suffer from poor health. Specially during winter seasons, people live in valleys or close to mountains experience hazy conditions and severe health problems. As a result, aerosol related research works have gained more attention over the last couple of decades. We considered PM2.5-particulate matter less than 2.5 µm of aerodynamic diameter, to see how PM2.5 varies with different atmospheric conditions during winter seasons over two different regions of the world. We selected five winter seasons from November to February from 2011 to 2015 both in Beijing and in Fairbanks. Both locations can be considered as complex terrains, as those regions are surrounded by or close to mountains. Using University of Wyoming's sounding data, we calculated a parameter called Heat Deficit (HD). Higher HD is associated with less turbulence, thus high PM2.5 concentration. On the other hand, low HD is associated with high turbulence, thus low PM2.5 concentration. So, we considered HD as a measure of stability in the region of interest. Despite geographical differences, Fairbanks was covered by snow every day over the study period while Beijing had almost no snow cover. Analysis was done in two ways, with and without paying attention to precipitation. HD was also evaluated with different levels of PM2.5, set up to multiples of average PM2.5 concentration. This was done to check whether HD correlates well with a particular range of PM2.5. A day of precipitation for Fairbanks was considered to be when the daily snowfall >1 inch, while for Beijing when any type of daily precipitation >0.1 inch. Precipitation for Beijing was rare and only 9 days were met even with the 0.1 inch criteria while Fairbanks had 61 days of exceeding the 1 inch criteria. Results revealed that precipitation doesn't impact the strength of the relationship between HD and PM2.5 either yearly or all winters combined. However, it varied from Beijing to Fairbanks. Fairbanks had a r2 of 0.3 while Beijing had a r2 of 0.4. The same was true for HD in a given range of PM2.5 for combined winters. While the precipitation didn't show an influence, strength of the relationship for Fairbanks was lower than that of Beijing.

Association between atmospheric circulation patterns and firn-ice core records from the Inilchek glacierized area, central Tien Shan, Asia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aizen, V.B.; Aizen, E.M.; Melack, J.M.; Kreutz, K.J.; Cecil, L.D.

2004-01-01

Glacioclimatological research in the central Tien Shan was performed in the summers of 1998 and 1999 on the South Inilchek Glacier at 5100-5460 m. A 14.36 m firn-ice core and snow samples were collected and used for stratigraphic, isotopic, and chemical analyses. The firn-ice core and snow records were related to snow pit measurements at an event scale and to meteorological data and synoptic indices of atmospheric circulation at annual and seasonal scales. Linear relationships between the seasonal air temperature and seasonal isotopic composition in accumulated precipitation were established. Changes in the ??18O air temperature relationship, in major ion concentration and in the ratios between chemical species, were used to identify different sources of moisture and investigate changes in atmospheric circulation patterns. Precipitation over the central Tien Shan is characterized by the lowest ionic content among the Tien Shan glaciers and indicates its mainly marine origin. In seasons of minimum precipitation, autumn and winter, water vapor was derived from the and and semiarid regions in central Eurasia and contributed annual maximal solute content to snow accumulation in Tien Shan. The lowest content of major ions was observed in spring and summer layers, which represent maximum seasonal accumulation when moisture originates over the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean and Black Seas. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

The impact of sea surface temperature on winter wheat in Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capa-Morocho, Mirian; Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belen; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita

2016-04-01

Climate variability is the main driver of changes in crops yield, especially for rainfed production systems. This is also the case of Iberian Peninsula (IP) (Capa-Morocho et al., 2014), where wheat yields are strongly dependent on seasonal rainfall amount and temporal distribution of rainfall during the growing season. Previous works have shown that large-scale oceanic patterns have a significant impact on precipitation over IP (Rodriguez-Fonseca and de Castro, 2002; Rodríguez-Fonseca et al., 2006). The existence of some predictability of precipitation has encouraged us to analyze the possible predictability of the wheat yield in the IP using sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies as predictor. For this purpose, a crop model site specific calibrated for the Northeast of IP and several reanalysis climate datasets have been used to obtain long time series of attainable wheat yield and relate their variability with SST anomalies. The results show that wheat yield anomalies are associated with changes in the Tropical Pacific (El Niño) and Atlantic (TNA) SST. For these events, the regional associated atmospheric pattern resembles the NAO, which also influences directly on the maximum temperatures and precipitation experienced by the crop during flowering and grain filling. Results from this study could have important implications for predictability issues in agricultural planning and management, such as insurance coverage, changes in sowing dates and choice of species and varieties.

Multi objective climate change impact assessment using multi downscaled climate scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rana, Arun; Moradkhani, Hamid

2016-04-01

Global Climate Models (GCMs) are often used to downscale the climatic parameters on a regional and global scale. In the present study, we have analyzed the changes in precipitation and temperature for future scenario period of 2070-2099 with respect to historical period of 1970-2000 from a set of statistically downscaled GCM projections for Columbia River Basin (CRB). Analysis is performed using 2 different statistically downscaled climate projections namely the Bias Correction and Spatial Downscaling (BCSD) technique generated at Portland State University and the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) technique, generated at University of Idaho, totaling to 40 different scenarios. Analysis is performed on spatial, temporal and frequency based parameters in the future period at a scale of 1/16th of degree for entire CRB region. Results have indicated in varied degree of spatial change pattern for the entire Columbia River Basin, especially western part of the basin. At temporal scales, winter precipitation has higher variability than summer and vice-versa for temperature. Frequency analysis provided insights into possible explanation to changes in precipitation.

Ecohydrological and Biophysical Controls on Carbon Cycling in Two Seasonally Snow-covered Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, A. M.; Brooks, P. D.; Burns, S. P.; Litvak, M. E.; Blanken, P.; Bowling, D. R.

2014-12-01

In many seasonally snow-covered forests, the snowpack is the primary water resource. The snowpack also serves as an insulating layer over the soil, warming soil throughout the winter and preserving moisture conditions from the preceding fall. Therefore, the total amount of water in the snowpack as well as the timing and duration of the snow-covered season are likely to have a strong influence on forest productivity through the regulation of the biophysical environment. We investigated how interannual variation in the amount and timing of seasonal snow cover affect winter carbon efflux and growing season carbon uptake at the Niwot Ridge AmeriFlux site (NWT) in Colorado (3050m a.s.l.; 40˚N) and the Valles Caldera Mixed-Conifer AmeriFlux site (VC) in New Mexico (3003m a.s.l.; 36˚N). The tree species composition at NWT is dominated by Abies lasiocarpa, Picea engelmannii, and Pinus contorta. At VC, the dominant tree species are Pseudotsuga menziesii, Abies concolor, Picea pungens, Pinus strobiformis, Pinus flexilis, Pinus ponderosa, and Populus tremuloides. We used net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and climate data from 1999-2012 at NWT and 2007-2012 at VC to divide each year into the growing season, when NEE is negative, and the winter, when NEE is positive. Snow water equivalent (SWE), precipitation, and duration of snow cover data were obtained from USDA/NRCS SNOTEL sites near each forest. At both sites, the start of the growing season was strongly controlled by air temperature, but growing season NEE was not dependent on the length of the growing season. At NWT, total winter carbon efflux was strongly influenced by both the amount and duration of the snowpack, measured as SWE integrated over time. Years with higher integrated SWE had higher winter carbon efflux and also had warmer soil under the snowpack. These patterns were not seen at VC. However, peak SWE amount was positively correlated with growing season NEE at VC, but not at NWT. These results suggest that carbon cycling in seasonally snow-covered forests is responsive to interannual variation in winter precipitation, however, there is not a general relationship to explain the overall effect on annual NEE.

Predictability of horizontal water vapor transport relative to precipitation: Enhancing situational awareness for forecasting western U.S. extreme precipitation and flooding

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lavers, David A.; Waliser, Duane E.; Ralph, F. Martin; Dettinger, Michael

2016-01-01

The western United States is vulnerable to socioeconomic disruption due to extreme winter precipitation and floods. Traditionally, forecasts of precipitation and river discharge provide the basis for preparations. Herein we show that earlier event awareness may be possible through use of horizontal water vapor transport (integrated vapor transport (IVT)) forecasts. Applying the potential predictability concept to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction global ensemble reforecasts, across 31 winters, IVT is found to be more predictable than precipitation. IVT ensemble forecasts with the smallest spreads (least forecast uncertainty) are associated with initiation states with anomalously high geopotential heights south of Alaska, a setup conducive for anticyclonic conditions and weak IVT into the western United States. IVT ensemble forecasts with the greatest spreads (most forecast uncertainty) have initiation states with anomalously low geopotential heights south of Alaska and correspond to atmospheric rivers. The greater IVT predictability could provide warnings of impending storminess with additional lead times for hydrometeorological applications.

Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on winter precipitation totals in Slovakia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leskova, Livia; Stastny, Pavel

2013-04-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the most important circulation mode in the Northern Hemisphere, which impacts climate in Europe in various ways. The strongest impacts of oscillation on air temperature and precipitation regime are detected in Scandinavia and Mediterranean region, but impacts have opposite effect. Therefore, assessment of the relation between NAO and precipitation totals seems to be interesting in Slovakia, because of the country location in the centre between above mentioned regions. Our former research detected only the relation between NAO and a winter precipitation totals in Slovakia. More detailed aspects of this relation is analysed in this paper. A correlation method was used at two resolution levels, which detected opposite spatial impact of NAO on above mentioned seasonal precipitation. The first generalised level was based on the precipitation regions, which were distinguished on the base of characteristic precipitation regime of individual regions. The second level was more detailed and the correlation method was applied on data of every individual rain gauge station from the set of 202 rain gauge stations with complete data for period 1901 - 2010 in Slovakia. In the northern part of the country (Orava and Kysuce regions), there was found the positive correlation. Increase in the winter precipitation totals was recorded in the same regions and general precipitation trend in this area was similar to the trend in used Hurrell oscillation index. It means, following the increasing trend in oscillation course, we can also expect the increase in precipitation totals in these regions in the near future. In a southward direction, this correlation changed to the negative values and the most negative correlation coefficients were reached in the lowland regions (Podunajská and Východoslovenská nížina) and in the region of Juhoslovenská kotlina. This last mentioned region is located in multiple precipitation shadow of Carpathians, whereas the precipitation shadow is lower in other regions. Therefore, we suppose, the impact of NAO is strongly influenced by barrier effect of Carpathian Mountains. It can also be expected the important impact of Mediterranean oscillation in the last mentioned regions. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The article was prepared with the support of grant VEGA 1/1155/12.

A comprehensive analysis of coherent rainfall patterns in China and potential drivers. Part I: Interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephan, Claudia Christine; Klingaman, Nicholas Pappas; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Turner, Andrew George; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Guo, Liang

2018-06-01

Interannual rainfall variability in China affects agriculture, infrastructure and water resource management. To improve its understanding and prediction, many studies have associated precipitation variability with particular causes for specific seasons and regions. Here, a consistent and objective method, Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnection (EOT) analysis, is applied to 1951-2007 high-resolution precipitation observations over China in all seasons. Instead of maximizing the explained space-time variance, the method identifies regions in China that best explain the temporal variability in domain-averaged rainfall. The EOT method is validated by the reproduction of known relationships to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO): high positive correlations with ENSO are found in eastern China in winter, along the Yangtze River in summer, and in southeast China during spring. New findings include that wintertime rainfall variability along the southeast coast is associated with anomalous convection over the tropical eastern Atlantic and communicated to China through a zonal wavenumber-three Rossby wave. Furthermore, spring rainfall variability in the Yangtze valley is related to upper-tropospheric midlatitude perturbations that are part of a Rossby wave pattern with its origin in the North Atlantic. A circumglobal wave pattern in the northern hemisphere is also associated with autumn precipitation variability in eastern areas. The analysis is objective, comprehensive, and produces timeseries that are tied to specific locations in China. This facilitates the interpretation of associated dynamical processes, is useful for understanding the regional hydrological cycle, and allows the results to serve as a benchmark for assessing general circulation models.

Seasonal precipitation extreme indices in mainland Portugal: trends and variability in the period 1941-2007

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santo, Fátima E.; Ramos, Alexandre M.; de Lima, M. Isabel P.; Trigo, Ricardo M.

2013-04-01

Changes in the precipitation regimes are expected to be accompanied by variations in the occurrence of extreme events, which in turn could be related to low frequency variability. The impact on the society and environment requires that the regional specificities are understood. For mainland Portugal, this work reports the results of the analysis of trends in selected precipitation indices calculated from daily precipitation data from 57 meteorological stations, recorded in the period 1941-2007; additionally we have also investigated the correlations between these indices and several modes of low frequency variability over the area. We focus on exploring regional differences and seasonal variations in the intensity, frequency and duration of extreme precipitation events. The precipitation indices were assessed at the seasonal scale and calculated at both the station and regional scales. Results sometimes highlight marked changes in seasonal precipitation and show that: i) trends in spring and autumn have opposite signals: statistically significant drying trends in the spring are accompanied by a reduction in precipitation extremes; in autumn, wetting trends are detected for all precipitation indices, although overall they are not significant at the 5% level; ii) there seems to be a tendency for a reduction in the duration of the rainy season; iii) the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the mode of variability that has the highest influence on precipitation extremes over mainland Portugal, particularly in the winter and autumn, and is one of the most important teleconnection patterns in all seasons. This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) through project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010).

Evolution of Tropical and Extratropical Precipitation Anomalies During the 1997 to 1999 ENSO Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curtis, Scott; Adler, Robert; Huffman, George; Nelkin, Eric; Bolvin, David; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The 1997-1999 ENSO period was very powerful, but also well observed. Multiple satellite rainfall estimates combined with gauge observations allow for a quantitative analysis of precipitation anomalies in the tropics and elsewhere accompanying the 1997-99 ENSO cycle. An examination of the evolution of the El Nino and accompanying precipitation anomalies revealed that a dry Maritime Continent preceded the formation of positive SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific Ocean. 30-60 day oscillations in the winter of 1996/97 may have contributed to this lag relationship. Furthermore, westerly wind burst events may have maintained the drought over the Maritime Continent. The warming of the equatorial Pacific was then followed by an increase in convection. A rapid transition from El Nino to La Nina occurred in May 1998, but as early as October-November 1997 precipitation indices captured substantial changes in Pacific rainfall anomalies. The global precipitation patterns for this event were in good agreement with the strong consistent ENSO-related precipitation signals identified in earlier studies. Differences included a shift in precipitation anomalies over Africa during the 1997-98 El Nino and unusually wet conditions over northeast Australia during the later stages of the El Nino. Also, the typically wet region in the north tropical Pacific was mostly dry during the 1998-99 La Nina. Reanalysis precipitation was compared to observations during this time period and substantial differences were noted. In particular, the model had a bias towards positive precipitation anomalies and the magnitudes of the anomalies in the equatorial Pacific were small compared to the observations. Also, the evolution of the precipitation field, including the drying of the Maritime Continent and eastward progression of rainfall in the equatorial Pacific was less pronounced for the model compared to the observations.

Analysis and Comparison of the Temperature and Snowfall Conditions for the Winters of 2014/15 and 2015/16 at Three Ski Resorts in British Columbia, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pidwirny, M. J.; Pedersen, S.

2016-12-01

Most ski resorts located close to the west coast of Canada experienced extremely poor weather conditions during the winter of 2014/15. During this year, a persistent area of high pressure created "the Blob" in the North Pacific Ocean, which influenced weather patterns on the west coast of North America producing very mild temperatures inland. Further, for many ski resorts winter precipitation that normally arrives in the form of snow, instead fell as rain on many occasions. In Western Canada, ski resorts saw an 18% decrease in skier visits in 2014/15 relative to the average of the previous 8 years. NOAA forecasts for the winter of 2015/16 suggested another mild winter because of a strong El Nino event. Despite this forecast, ski resorts in Western Canada experienced a very good ski season. This research examines the climate characteristics of the winters of 2014/15 and 2015/16 in detail for three ski resorts in British Columbia, Canada: Whistler-Blackcomb, Cypress Mountain, and Big White. The climatic characteristics of these 2 years were also compared to the winter of 2012/13, the most recent banner ski year in the last decade. Data for this study came from Snow-Forecast.com, a web-based company that creates tailor-made weather forecasts for ski resorts around the world using climate model output from NOAA. From Snow-Forecast.com, we mined archived hindcast data that was available at the daily level to analyze and compare mean air temperature and snowfall patterns from November 1 to March 31. Daily temperature data was plotted in a line graph for each year. To better clarify trends, we also graphed an 11-year running mean for the temperature data. Snowfall data was plotted in a cumulative line graph. The winter of 2014/15 was on average warmer by 3.9°C for Cypress, 5.4°C for Whistler, and 4.4°C for Big White than the winter of 2012/13. The winter of 2015/16 was on average 2.5°C, 3.6°C, and 3.6°C warmer than the winter of 2012/13, respectively. Snowfall accumulations decreased by about 79% for Cypress, 57% for Whistler, and 9% for Big White in 2014/15 when compared to 2012/13. In contrast, the winter of 2015/16 saw snowfall increases of 10% for Cypress, 35% for Whistler, and 97% for Big White relative to 2012/13. Together, the colder temperatures and higher snowfall produced better than expected ski conditions in 2015/16.

Dynamical systems proxies of atmospheric predictability and mid-latitude extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Messori, Gabriele; Faranda, Davide; Caballero, Rodrigo; Yiou, Pascal

2017-04-01

Extreme weather ocurrences carry enormous social and economic costs and routinely garner widespread scientific and media coverage. Many extremes (for e.g. storms, heatwaves, cold spells, heavy precipitation) are tied to specific patterns of midlatitude atmospheric circulation. The ability to identify these patterns and use them to enhance the predictability of the extremes is therefore a topic of crucial societal and economic value. We propose a novel predictability pathway for extreme events, by building upon recent advances in dynamical systems theory. We use two simple dynamical systems metrics - local dimension and persistence - to identify sets of similar large-scale atmospheric flow patterns which present a coherent temporal evolution. When these patterns correspond to weather extremes, they therefore afford a particularly good forward predictability. We specifically test this technique on European winter temperatures, whose variability largely depends on the atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic region. We find that our dynamical systems approach provides predictability of large-scale temperature extremes up to one week in advance.

Examination of the potential impacts of dust and pollution aerosol acting as cloud nucleating aerosol on water resources in the Colorado River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jha, Vandana

In this study we examine the cumulative effect of dust acting as cloud nucleating aerosol (cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), giant cloud condensation nuclei (GCCN), and ice nuclei (IN)) along with anthropogenic aerosol pollution acting primarily as CCN, over the entire Colorado Rocky Mountains from the months of October to April in the year 2004-2005; the snow year. This ˜6.5 months analysis provides a range of snowfall totals and variability in dust and anthropogenic aerosol pollution. The specific objectives of this research is to quantify the impacts of both dust and pollution aerosols on wintertime precipitation in the Colorado Mountains using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). In general, dust enhances precipitation primarily by acting as IN, while aerosol pollution reduces water resources in the CRB via the so-called "spill-over" effect, by enhancing cloud droplet concentrations and reducing riming rates. Dust is more episodic and aerosol pollution is more pervasive throughout the winter season. Combined response to dust and aerosol pollution is a net reduction of water resources in the CRB. The question is by how much are those water resources affected? Our best estimate is that total winter-season precipitation loss for for the CRB the 2004-2005 winter season due to the combined influence of aerosol pollution and dust is 5,380,00 acre-feet of water. Sensitivity studies for different cases have also been run for the specific cases in 2004-2005 winter season to analyze the impact of changing dust and aerosol ratios on precipitation in the Colorado River Basin. The dust is varied from 3 to 10 times in the experiments and the response is found to be non monotonic and depends on various environmental factors. The sensitivity studies show that adding dust in a wet system increases precipitation when IN affects are dominant. For a relatively dry system high concentrations of dust can result in over-seeding the clouds and reductions in precipitation. However, when adding dust to a system with warmer cloud bases, the response is non-monotonical, and when CCN affects are dominant, reductions in precipitation are found.

Estimates of Ice Sheet Mass Balance from Satellite Altimetry: Past and Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zwally, H. Jay; Zukor, Dorothy J. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A major uncertainty in predicting sea level rise is the sensitivity of ice sheet mass balance to climate change, as well as the uncertainty in present mass balance. Since the annual water exchange is about 8 mm of global sea level equivalent, the 20% uncertainty in current mass balance corresponds to 1.6 mm/yr in sea level change. Furthermore, estimates of the sensitivity of the mass balance to temperature change range from perhaps as much as - 10% to + 10% per K. A principal purpose of obtaining ice sheet elevation changes from satellite altimetry has been estimation of the current ice sheet mass balance. Limited information on ice sheet elevation change and their implications about mass balance have been reported by several investigators from radar altimetry (Seasat, Geosat, ERS-1&2). Analysis of ERS-1&2 data over Greenland for 7 years from 1992 to 1999 shows mixed patterns of ice elevation increases and decreases that are significant in terms of regional-scale mass balances. Observed seasonal and interannual variations in ice surface elevation are larger than previously expected because of seasonal and interannUal variations in precipitation, melting, and firn compaction. In the accumulation zone, the variations in firn compaction are modeled as a function of temperature leaving variations in precipitation and the mass balance trend. Significant interannual variations in elevation in some locations, in particular the difference in trends from 1992 to 1995 compared to 1995 to 1999, can be explained by changes in precipitation over Greenland. Over the 7 years, trends in elevation are mostly positive at higher elevations and negative at lower elevations. In addition, trends for the winter seasons (from a trend analysis through the average winter elevations) are more positive than the corresponding trends for the summer. At lower elevations, the 7-year trends in some locations are strongly negative for summer and near zero or slightly positive for winter. These observations also demonstrate the potential for relating the variability in mass balance to changes in precipitation, temperature, and melting. Beginning in January 2002, NASA's ICESat laser altimeter mission will provide significantly better elevation accuracy and spatial coverage to 86E latitude and to the margins of the ice sheets.

Modeling the water isotopes in Greenland precipitation 1959-2001 with the meso-scale model REMO-iso

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sjolte, J.; Hoffmann, G.; Johnsen, S. J.; Vinther, B. M.; Masson-Delmotte, V.; Sturm, C.

2011-09-01

Ice core studies have proved the δ18O in Greenland precipitation to be correlated to the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This subject has also been investigated in modeling studies. However, these studies have either had severe biases in the δ18O levels, or have not been designed to be compared directly with observations. In this study we nudge a meso-scale climate model fitted with stable water isotope diagnostics (REMO-iso) to follow the actual weather patterns for the period 1959-2001. We evaluate this simulation using meteorological observations from stations along the Greenland coast, and δ18O from several Greenland ice core stacks and Global Network In Precipitation (GNIP) data from Greenland, Iceland and Svalbard. The REMO-iso output explains up to 40% of the interannual δ18O variability observed in ice cores, which is comparable to the model performance for precipitation. In terms of reproducing the observed variability the global model, ECHAM4-iso performs on the same level as REMO-iso. However, REMO-iso has smaller biases in δ18O and improved representation of the observed spatial δ18O-temperature slope compared to ECHAM4-iso. Analysis of the main modes of winter variability of δ18O shows a coherent signal in Central and Western Greenland similar to results from ice cores. The NAO explains 20% of the leading δ18O pattern. Based on the model output we suggest that methods to reconstruct the NAO from Greenland ice cores employ both δ18O and accumulation records.

Extending medium-range predictability of extreme hydrological events in Europe

PubMed Central

Lavers, David A.; Pappenberger, Florian; Zsoter, Ervin

2014-01-01

Widespread flooding occurred across northwest Europe during the winter of 2013/14, resulting in large socioeconomic damages. In the historical record, extreme hydrological events have been connected with intense water vapour transport. Here we show that water vapour transport has higher medium-range predictability compared with precipitation in the winter 2013/14 forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Applying the concept of potential predictability, the transport is found to extend the forecast horizon by 3 days in some European regions. Our results suggest that the breakdown in precipitation predictability is due to uncertainty in the horizontal mass convergence location, an essential mechanism for precipitation generation. Furthermore, the predictability increases with larger spatial averages. Given the strong association between precipitation and water vapour transport, especially for extreme events, we conclude that the higher transport predictability could be used as a model diagnostic to increase preparedness for extreme hydrological events. PMID:25387309

Climate variables explain neutral and adaptive variation within salmonid metapopulations: The importance of replication in landscape genetics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hand, Brian K.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Wade, Alisa A.; Kovach, Ryan; Whited, Diane C.; Narum, Shawn R.; Matala, Andrew P.; Ackerman, Michael W.; Garner, B. A.; Kimball, John S; Stanford, Jack A.; Luikart, Gordon

2016-01-01

Understanding how environmental variation influences population genetic structure is important for conservation management because it can reveal how human stressors influence population connectivity, genetic diversity and persistence. We used riverscape genetics modelling to assess whether climatic and habitat variables were related to neutral and adaptive patterns of genetic differentiation (population-specific and pairwise FST) within five metapopulations (79 populations, 4583 individuals) of steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in the Columbia River Basin, USA. Using 151 putatively neutral and 29 candidate adaptive SNP loci, we found that climate-related variables (winter precipitation, summer maximum temperature, winter highest 5% flow events and summer mean flow) best explained neutral and adaptive patterns of genetic differentiation within metapopulations, suggesting that climatic variation likely influences both demography (neutral variation) and local adaptation (adaptive variation). However, we did not observe consistent relationships between climate variables and FST across all metapopulations, underscoring the need for replication when extrapolating results from one scale to another (e.g. basin-wide to the metapopulation scale). Sensitivity analysis (leave-one-population-out) revealed consistent relationships between climate variables and FST within three metapopulations; however, these patterns were not consistent in two metapopulations likely due to small sample sizes (N = 10). These results provide correlative evidence that climatic variation has shaped the genetic structure of steelhead populations and highlight the need for replication and sensitivity analyses in land and riverscape genetics.

Altitudinal and climatic adaptation is mediated by flowering traits and FRI, FLC, and PHYC genes in Arabidopsis.

PubMed

Méndez-Vigo, Belén; Picó, F Xavier; Ramiro, Mercedes; Martínez-Zapater, José M; Alonso-Blanco, Carlos

2011-12-01

Extensive natural variation has been described for the timing of flowering initiation in many annual plants, including the model wild species Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana), which is presumed to be involved in adaptation to different climates. However, the environmental factors that might shape this genetic variation, as well as the molecular bases of climatic adaptation by modifications of flowering time, remain mostly unknown. To approach both goals, we characterized the flowering behavior in relation to vernalization of 182 Arabidopsis wild genotypes collected in a native region spanning a broad climatic range. Phenotype-environment association analyses identified strong altitudinal clines (0-2600 m) in seven out of nine flowering-related traits. Altitudinal clines were dissected in terms of minimum winter temperature and precipitation, indicating that these are the main climatic factors that might act as selective pressures on flowering traits. In addition, we used an association analysis approach with four candidate genes, FRIGIDA (FRI), FLOWERING LOCUS C (FLC), PHYTOCHROME C (PHYC), and CRYPTOCHROME2, to decipher the genetic bases of this variation. Eleven different loss-of-function FRI alleles of low frequency accounted for up to 16% of the variation for most traits. Furthermore, an FLC allelic series of six novel putative loss- and change-of-function alleles, with low to moderate frequency, revealed that a broader FLC functional diversification might contribute to flowering variation. Finally, environment-genotype association analyses showed that the spatial patterns of FRI, FLC, and PHYC polymorphisms are significantly associated with winter temperatures and spring and winter precipitations, respectively. These results support that allelic variation in these genes is involved in climatic adaptation.

Light absorbing material (soot) in rainwater and in aerosol particles in the Maldives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Granat, L.; EngströM, J. E.; Praveen, S.; Rodhe, H.

2010-08-01

Simultaneous measurements of soot (absorbing material at 528 nm) and inorganic ions in aerosol and precipitation at the Maldives Climate Observatory Hanimaadhoo during the period May 2005 to February 2007 have made it possible to calculate the washout ratio (WR) of these components as a measure of how efficiently they are scavenged by precipitation. On the basis of air trajectories the data have been separated into days with polluted air arriving from the Indian subcontinent in a northeasterly sector during winter and clean monsoon days with southerly flow from the Indian Ocean. The average soot concentration was a factor of 10 higher in the former situations. Despite considerable scatter for individual days, a systematic pattern emerged when the WR for the different components were compared with each other. During the monsoon season the WR for soot was similar to that of sulfate and other fine mode aerosol components, indicating that soot containing particles in these situations were efficient as cloud condensation nuclei. The origin of the light absorbing material during the monsoon season is unclear. During the polluted winter days, on the other hand, the WR for soot was three times smaller than that of sulfate. This indicates that, even after a travel time of several days, the soot containing particles from India have retained much of their hydrophobic property. The low WR and the infrequent rain during this season probably contribute to extending the atmospheric lifetime of soot well beyond several days. Surprisingly high concentrations of non-sea-salt calcium were measured during the monsoon season, substantially higher than during the winter season. The origin of these high values could be long-range transport from the Australian or African continents. Another possibility might be exopolymer gels derived from the ocean surface microlayer.

Satellite view of seasonal greenness trends and controls in South Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarmah, Sangeeta; Jia, Gensuo; Zhang, Anzhi

2018-03-01

South Asia (SA) has been considered one of the most remarkable regions for changing vegetation greenness, accompanying its major expansion of agricultural activities, especially irrigated farming. The influence of the monsoon climate on the seasonal trends and anomalies of vegetation greenness is poorly understood in this area. Herein, we used the satellite-based Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to investigate various spatiotemporal patterns in vegetation activity during summer and winter monsoon (SM and WM) seasons and among irrigated croplands (IC), rainfed croplands (RC), and natural vegetation (NV) areas during 1982–2013. Seasonal NDVI variations with climatic factors (precipitation and temperature) and land use and cover changes (LUCC) have also been investigated. This study demonstrates that the seasonal dynamics of vegetation could improve the detailed understanding of vegetation productivity over the region. We found distinct greenness trends between two monsoon seasons and among the major land use/cover classes. Winter monsoons contributed greater variability to the overall vegetation dynamics of SA. Major greening occurred due to the increased productivity over irrigated croplands during the winter monsoon season; meanwhile, browning trends were prominent over NV areas during the same season. Maximum temperatures had been increasing tremendously during the WM season; however, the precipitation trend was not significant over SA. Both the climate variability and LUCC revealed coupled effects on the long term NDVI trends in NV areas, especially in the hilly regions, whereas anthropogenic activities (agricultural advancements) played a pivotal role in the rest of the area. Until now, advanced cultivation techniques have proven to be beneficial for the region in terms of the productivity of croplands. However, the crop productivity is at risk under climate change.

Strong signatures of high-latitude blocks and subtropical ridges in winter PM10 over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrido-Perez, Jose M.; Ordóñez, Carlos; García-Herrera, Ricardo

2017-10-01

This paper analyses the impact of high-latitude blocks and subtropical ridges on daily PM10 (particulate matter ≤ 10 μm) observations obtained from the European Environment Agency's air quality database (AirBase) for the winter period of 2000-2010. The response of the pollutant concentrations to the location of blocks and ridges with centres in two main longitudinal sectors (Atlantic, ATL, 30°-0° W; European, EUR, 0°-30° E) is examined. In particular, EUR blocking is associated with a collapse of the boundary layer as well as reduced wind speeds and precipitation occurrence, yielding large positive anomalies which average 12 μg m-3 over the whole continent. Conversely, the enhanced zonal flow around 50°-60° N and the increased occurrence of precipitation over northern-central Europe on days with ATL ridges favour the ventilation of the boundary layer and the impact of washout processes, reducing PM10 concentrations on average by around 8 μg m-3. The presence of EUR blocks is also concurrent with an increased probability of exceeding the air quality target (50 μg m-3 for 24-h averaged PM10) and the local 90th percentiles for this pollutant at many sites in central Europe, while the opposite effect is found for ridges. In addition, the effect of synoptic persistence on the PM10 concentrations is stronger for EUR blocks than for ATL ridges. This could benefit the predictability of PM10 extremes over wide areas of the region. Finally, we have found that the combined or isolated effect of both synoptic patterns can partly control the interannual variability of winter mean PM10 at many sites of north-western and central Europe, with coefficients of determination (R2) exceeding 0.80 for southern Germany. These results indicate that the response of the particulate matter (PM) concentrations to large-scale circulation patterns is stronger than previously reported for Europe and other mid-latitude regions.

A multimodel approach to interannual and seasonal prediction of Danube discharge anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rimbu, Norel; Ionita, Monica; Patrut, Simona; Dima, Mihai

2010-05-01

Interannual and seasonal predictability of Danube river discharge is investigated using three model types: 1) time series models 2) linear regression models of discharge with large-scale climate mode indices and 3) models based on stable teleconnections. All models are calibrated using discharge and climatic data for the period 1901-1977 and validated for the period 1978-2008 . Various time series models, like autoregressive (AR), moving average (MA), autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) or singular spectrum analysis and autoregressive moving average (SSA+ARMA) models have been calibrated and their skills evaluated. The best results were obtained using SSA+ARMA models. SSA+ARMA models proved to have the highest forecast skill also for other European rivers (Gamiz-Fortis et al. 2008). Multiple linear regression models using large-scale climatic mode indices as predictors have a higher forecast skill than the time series models. The best predictors for Danube discharge are the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the East Atlantic/Western Russia patterns during winter and spring. Other patterns, like Polar/Eurasian or Tropical Northern Hemisphere (TNH) are good predictors for summer and autumn discharge. Based on stable teleconnection approach (Ionita et al. 2008) we construct prediction models through a combination of sea surface temperature (SST), temperature (T) and precipitation (PP) from the regions where discharge and SST, T and PP variations are stable correlated. Forecast skills of these models are higher than forecast skills of the time series and multiple regression models. The models calibrated and validated in our study can be used for operational prediction of interannual and seasonal Danube discharge anomalies. References Gamiz-Fortis, S., D. Pozo-Vazquez, R.M. Trigo, and Y. Castro-Diez, Quantifying the predictability of winter river flow in Iberia. Part I: intearannual predictability. J. Climate, 2484-2501, 2008. Gamiz-Fortis, S., D. Pozo-Vazquez, R.M. Trigo, and Y. Castro-Diez, Quantifying the predictability of winter river flow in Iberia. Part II: seasonal predictability. J. Climate, 2503-2518, 2008. Ionita, M., G. Lohmann, and N. Rimbu, Prediction of spring Elbe river discharge based on stable teleconnections with global temperature and precipitation. J. Climate. 6215-6226, 2008.

Extreme precipitation events in the Iberian Peninsula and its association with Atmospheric Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, Alexandre M.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Trigo, Ricardo M.

2015-04-01

Extreme precipitation events in the Iberian Peninsula during the winter half of the year have major socio-economic impacts associated with floods, landslides, extensive property damage and life losses. In recent years, a number of works have shed new light on the role played by Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) in the occurrence of extreme precipitation events in both Europe and USA. ARs are relatively narrow regions of concentrated WV responsible for horizontal transport in the lower atmosphere corresponding to the core section of the broader warm conveyor belt occurring over the oceans along the warm sector of extra-tropical cyclones. Over the North Atlantic ARs are usually W-E oriented steered by pre-frontal low level jets along the trailing cold front and subsequently feed the precipitation in the extra-tropical cyclones. It was shown that more than 90% of the meridional WV transport in the mid-latitudes occurs in the AR, although they cover less than 10% of the area of the globe. The large amount of WV that is transported can lead to heavy precipitation and floods. An automated ARs detection algorithm is used for the North Atlantic Ocean Basin allowing the identification and a comprehensive characterization of the major AR events that affected the Iberian Peninsula over the 1948-2012 period. The extreme precipitation days in the Iberian Peninsula were assessed recently by us (Ramos et al., 2014) and their association (or not) with the occurrence of AR is analyzed in detail here. The extreme precipitation days are ranked by their magnitude and are obtained after considering 1) the area affected and 2) the precipitation intensity. Different rankings are presented for the entire Iberian Peninsula, Portugal and also for the six largest Iberian river basins (Minho, Duero, Tagus, Guadiana, Guadalquivir and Ebro) covering the 1950-2008 period (Ramos et al., 2014). Results show that the association between ARs and extreme precipitation days in the western domains (Portugal, Minho, Tagus and Duero) is noteworthy, while for the eastern and southern basins (Ebro, Guadiana and Guadalquivir) the impact of ARs is reduced. In addition, meteorological large scale influence associated with ARs was also analyzed. The anomalies between the extended winter (ONDJFM) long term mean and the composite for the persistent ARs time steps were computed for the IVT and SLP fields. Negative SLP anomalies are found centered in Ireland with slight positive anomalies of SLP located over northern Africa. It was found that the ARs hitting the IP are strongly correlated with the EA pattern, while the influence of other patterns such as the NAO or SCAND is weak. Main results presented are currently in print (Ramos et al., 2015) Ramos et al (2014), A ranking of high-resolution daily precipitation extreme events for the Iberian Peninsula. Atmospheric Science Letters, doi: 10.1002/asl2.507. Ramos et al. (2015), Daily precipitation extreme events in the Iberian Peninsula and its association with Atmospheric Rivers. Journal Hydrometeorology, in press. This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010). A. M. Ramos was also supported by a FCT postdoctoral grant (FCT/DFRH/SFRH/BPD/84328/2012).

Mediterranean summer climate and the monsoon regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baldi, M.; Crisci, A.; Dalu, G. A.; Maracchi, G.; Meneguzzo, F.; Pasqui, M.

2003-04-01

The Authors examine the general features of climate of the Mediterranean Region, i.e. its variability and trends in the last 40 years, and the teleconnections between Mediterranean climate and the global climate, using zonal and global indices. In particular they focus the attention on the analysis of the summer Mediterranean climate, and its variability and connection with the summer monsoon regimes. Several subregions can be distinguished in the Mediterranean for each season, and the occurrence of Mediterranean Oscillation is evident between West and East sub-basins. Precipitation and SLP fields in the Eastern basin are shown to be correlated with Mediterranean Oscillation. A total decrease of precipitation has been detected in last few years, although there are some very intense. During winter a fundamental role is played by NAO index, which, influencing the storm tracks coming from the Atlantic and passing over the Mediterranean and North Europe, it has a major role in the precipitation patterns over the Region. Moreover, temperature analysis over the last 40 years in the Mediterranean shows a distinct warming, in agreement with the pattern over North Emisphere and NAO index fluctuations. During summer the Hadley cell extend further northwards, influencing the Mediterranean climate, and there is evidence of a possible teleconnection with the Asian Monsoon, and the Sahel precipitation (and related Hadley cell): the SLP field in the Eastern Mediterranean is inversely correlated with those two precipitation indices, while it is positively correlated with the pressure in the Western Mediterranean. Leading mechanisms of interaction between Mediterranean summer rainfall and SLP patterns and precipitation indices associated with monsoon regimes are stressed out and investigated, as well as the influence of the position and strength of the Hadley cell, by means of both statistical and dynamical analytical arguments. A modeling study has been carried out in order to study the variations and the anomalies in the recent Mediterranean summer precipitation patterns, consisting of two main phases. In the first phase, a numerical regional atmospheric model has been used to downscale the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses, showing a good agreement between model simulations and observations, proving the capability of the modeling tool. During the second phase, following and extending recent experiences the numerical model has been used to identify the features and extent of the impacts of the location and strength of the West Africa summer monsoon - therefore the regional Hadley cell - to the Mediterranean climate, by selectively modifying the main forcing of that tropical circulation, i.e. the Gulf of Guinea sea surface temperatures.

Global Precipitation Measurement Cold Season Precipitation Experiment (GCPEx): For Measurement Sake Let it Snow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Skofronick-Jackson, Gail; Hudak, David; Petersen, Walter; Nesbitt, Stephen W.; Chandrasekar, V.; Durden, Stephen; Gleicher, Kirstin J.; Huang, Gwo-Jong; Joe, Paul; Kollias, Pavlos;

Improving the freight transportation roadway system during snow events : a performance evaluation of deicing chemicals.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-05-01

The ability of state DOTs to adequately clear roadways during winter weather conditions is critical for a safe and effective : freight transportation system. Variables affecting winter maintenance operations include the type of precipitation, air and...

Snowpack-runoff relationships for mid-elevation snowpacks on the Workman Creek watersheds of Central Arizona

Treesearch

Gerald J. Gottfried; Daniel G. Neary; Peter F. Ffolliott

2002-01-01

Snowpacks in the southwestern United States melt intermittently throughout the winter. At some mid-elevation locations, between 7,000 and 7,500 ft, snowpacks appear and disappear, depending on the distribution of storms during relatively dry winters. Some winter precipitation can occur as rain during warm storms and is not reflected in the snow course data. The USDA...

Effects of ENSO on weather-type frequencies and properties at New Orleans, Louisiana, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Muller, R.A.

2002-01-01

Examination of historical climate records indicates a significant relation between the El Nin??o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and seasonal temperature and precipitation in Louisiana. In this study, a 40 yr record of twice daily (06:00 and 15:00 h local time) weather types are used to study the effects of ENSO variability on the local climate at New Orleans, Louisiana. Tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) for the NINO3.4 region are used to define ENSO events (i.e. El Nin??o and La Nin??a events), and daily precipitation and temperature data for New Orleans are used to define weather-type precipitation and temperature properties. Data for winters (December through February) 1962-2000 are analyzed. The 39 winters are divided into 3 categories; winters with NINO3.4 SST anomalies 1??C (El Nin??o events), and neutral conditions (all other years). For each category, weather-type frequencies and properties (i.e. precipitation and temperature) are determined and analyzed. Results indicate that El Nin??o events primarily affect precipitation characteristics of weather types at New Orleans, whereas the effects of La Nin??a events are most apparent in weather-type frequencies. During El Nin??o events, precipitation for some of the weather types is greater than during neutral and La Nin??a conditions and is related to increased water vapor transport from the Tropics to the Gulf of Mexico. The changes in weather-type frequencies during La Nin??a events are indicative of a northward shift in storm tracks and/or a decrease in storm frequency in southern Louisiana.

Role of Non-Precipitation Sources in Regulating the River Hydrology of a Himalayan Catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grover, S.; Tayal, S.; Beldring, S.

2017-12-01

Hydrology of mountain catchments in Himalayas is strongly regulated by snow/ ice melt. Chenab basin of Himalayas is a snow and glacier fed basin, which makes it perennial and an important source of sustenance for downstream community. It is important to understand the variability in contribution from various sources to the water balance of catchment. Indirect assessment techniques are important to make such an assessment about the runoff patterns especially in data-scarce basins like Chenab. To analyze runoff patterns and contribution from different sources, we applied combination of semi-distributed HBV model and water balance approach for the period between 1971-2007. It was found that the contribution from non-precipitation sources to the total outflow in this region ranged from 30-70% with approximately 30% from glacier ice melt, and base-flow contributing around 20% to annual water-balance. Least precipitation year of 1977 shows maximum contribution from other sources, but also recorded the least outflow in catchment. Seasonal variation of the contribution from glacier ice melt was also estimated and in the months of May and June around 44% of the contribution to the outflow is from glacier melt only. Hydrological balance of the basin is positive during winters with outflow being very less than the inflow of water through precipitation or melt. Melt season starts in March but peaks during May and June with cryospheric contribution being almost twice the base flow contribution. Melting starts receding slowly after September, with its contribution to the outflow declining much below the baseflow contribution in October and November, when base-flow provides around 65% of water to the basin's outflow. Long term (1951-2010) temperature and precipitation data for the higher reaches of the basin indicates a warming trend (0.02 0C yr-1) and a decline in annual precipitation. But on a basin scale, precipitation is increasing and the non-precipitation contribution from snow/ ice melt and base flow is declining. This further emphasizes the fact that climate change is affecting the precipitation regime and liquid precipitation is taking a dominant position in an otherwise snow/ ice fed catchment. Thus, in Chenab basin, non-precipitation contribution is important to drive its water balance.

Long-Term Precipitation Isotope Ratios (δ18O, δ2H, d-excess) in the Northeast US Reflect Atlantic Ocean Warming and Shifts in Moisture Sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puntsag, T.; Welker, J. M.; Mitchell, M. J.; Klein, E. S.; Campbell, J. L.; Likens, G.

2014-12-01

The global water cycle is exhibiting dramatic changes as global temperatures increase resulting in increases in: drought extremes, flooding, alterations in storm track patterns with protracted winter storms, and greater precipitation variability. The mechanisms driving these changes can be difficult to assess, but the spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation water isotopes (δ18O, δ2H, d-excess) provide a means to help understand these water cycle changes. However, extended temporal records of isotope ratios in precipitation are infrequent, especially in the US. In our study we analyzed precipitation isotope ratio data from the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire that has the longest US precipitation isotope record, to determine: 1) the monthly composited averages and trends from 1967 to 2012 (45 years); ; 2) the relationships between abiotic properties such as local temperatures, precipitation type, storm tracks and isotope ratio changes; and 3) the influence of regional shifts in moisture sources and/or changes in N Atlantic Ocean water conditions on isotope values. The seasonal variability of Hubbard Brook precipitation isotope ratios is consistent with other studies, as average δ18O values are ~ -15‰ in January and ~ -5 ‰ in July. However, over the 45 year record there is a depletion trend in the δ 18O values (becoming isotopically lighter with a greater proportion of 16O), which coupled with less change in δ 2H leads to increases in d-excess values from ~ -10‰ around 1970 to greater than 10‰ in 2009. These changes occurred during a period of warming as opposed to cooling local temperatures indicating other processes besides temperature are controlling long-term water isotope traits in this region. We have evidence that these changes in precipitation isotope traits are controlled in large part by an increases in moisture being sourced from a warming N Atlantic Ocean that is providing evaporated, isotopically-depleted precipitation to the region. Thus, the warming of the N Atlantic Ocean appears to influence the climate and the precipitation isotopes of Northeastern coastal regions and could be a larger water source to watersheds in this North American region.

ARM Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (ACAPEX) Science Plan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leung, L. R.; Prather, K.; Ralph, R.

The western U.S. receives precipitation predominantly during the cold season when storms approach from the Pacific Ocean. The snowpack that accumulates during winter storms provides about 70-90% of water supply for the region. Understanding and modeling the fundamental processes that govern the large precipitation variability and extremes in the western U.S. is a critical test for the ability of climate models to predict the regional water cycle, including floods and droughts. Two elements of significant importance in predicting precipitation variability in the western U.S. are atmospheric rivers and aerosols. Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow bands of enhanced water vapor associatedmore » with the warm sector of extratropical cyclones over the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. Because of the large lower-tropospheric water vapor content, strong atmospheric winds and neutral moist static stability, some ARs can produce heavy precipitation by orographic enhancement during landfall on the U.S. West Coast. While ARs are responsible for a large fraction of heavy precipitation in that region during winter, much of the rest of the orographic precipitation occurs in post-frontal clouds, which are typically quite shallow, with tops just high enough to pass the mountain barrier. Such clouds are inherently quite susceptible to aerosol effects on both warm rain and ice precipitation-forming processes.« less

Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) and Streamflow Response to Spatially Distributed Precipitation in Two Large Watersheds in Northern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhakal, A. S.; Adera, S.; Niswonger, R. G.; Gardner, M.

2016-12-01

The ability of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) to predict peak intensity, peak timing, base flow, and volume of streamflow was examined in Arroyo Hondo (180 km2) and Upper Alameda Creek (85 km2), two sub-watersheds of the Alameda Creek watershed in Northern California. Rainfall-runoff volume ratios vary widely, and can exceed 0.85 during mid-winter flashy rainstorm events. Due to dry antecedent soil moisture conditions, the first storms of the hydrologic year often produce smaller rainfall-runoff volume ratios. Runoff response in this watershed is highly hysteretic; large precipitation events are required to generate runoff following a 4-week period without precipitation. After about 150 mm of cumulative rainfall, streamflow responds quickly to subsequent storms, with variations depending on rainstorm intensity. Inputs to PRMS included precipitation, temperature, topography, vegetation, soils, and land cover data. The data was prepared for input into PRMS using a suite of data processing Python scripts written by the Desert Research Institute and U.S. Geological Survey. PRMS was calibrated by comparing simulated streamflow to measured streamflow at a daily time step during the period 1995 - 2014. The PRMS model is being used to better understand the different patterns of streamflow observed in the Alameda Creek watershed. Although Arroyo Hondo receives more rainfall than Upper Alameda Creek, it is not clear whether the differences in streamflow patterns are a result of differences in rainfall or other variables, such as geology, slope and aspect. We investigate the ability of PRMS to simulate daily streamflow in the two sub-watersheds for a variety of antecedent soil moisture conditions and rainfall intensities. After successful simulation of watershed runoff processes, the model will be expanded using GSFLOW to simulate integrated surface water and groundwater to support water resources planning and management in the Alameda Creek watershed.

Analysis of spatial and temporal rainfall trends in Sicily during the 1921-2012 period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liuzzo, Lorena; Bono, Enrico; Sammartano, Vincenzo; Freni, Gabriele

2016-10-01

Precipitation patterns worldwide are changing under the effects of global warming. The impacts of these changes could dramatically affect the hydrological cycle and, consequently, the availability of water resources. In order to improve the quality and reliability of forecasting models, it is important to analyse historical precipitation data to account for possible future changes. For these reasons, a large number of studies have recently been carried out with the aim of investigating the existence of statistically significant trends in precipitation at different spatial and temporal scales. In this paper, the existence of statistically significant trends in rainfall from observational datasets, which were measured by 245 rain gauges over Sicily (Italy) during the 1921-2012 period, was investigated. Annual, seasonal and monthly time series were examined using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric statistical test to detect statistically significant trends at local and regional scales, and their significance levels were assessed. Prior to the application of the Mann-Kendall test, the historical dataset was completed using a geostatistical spatial interpolation technique, the residual ordinary kriging, and then processed to remove the influence of serial correlation on the test results, applying the procedure of trend-free pre-whitening. Once the trends at each site were identified, the spatial patterns of the detected trends were examined using spatial interpolation techniques. Furthermore, focusing on the 30 years from 1981 to 2012, the trend analysis was repeated with the aim of detecting short-term trends or possible changes in the direction of the trends. Finally, the effect of climate change on the seasonal distribution of rainfall during the year was investigated by analysing the trend in the precipitation concentration index. The application of the Mann-Kendall test to the rainfall data provided evidence of a general decrease in precipitation in Sicily during the 1921-2012 period. Downward trends frequently occurred during the autumn and winter months. However, an increase in total annual precipitation was detected during the period from 1981 to 2012.

A deglacial and Holocene record of climate variability in south-central Alaska from stable oxygen isotopes and plant macrofossils in peat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Miriam C.; Wooller, Matthew J.; Peteet, Dorothy M.

2014-01-01

We used stable oxygen isotopes derived from bulk peat (δ18OTOM), in conjunction with plant macrofossils and previously published carbon accumulation records, in a ∼14,500 cal yr BP peat core (HT Fen) from the Kenai lowlands in south-central Alaska to reconstruct the climate history of the area. We find that patterns are broadly consistent with those from lacustrine records across the region, and agree with the interpretation that major shifts in δ18OTOM values indicate changes in strength and position of the Aleutian Low (AL), a semi-permanent low-pressure cell that delivers winter moisture to the region. We find decreased strength or a more westerly position of the AL (relatively higher δ18OTOM values) during the Bølling-Allerød, Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM), and late Holocene, which also correspond to warmer climate regimes. These intervals coincide with greater peat preservation and enhanced carbon (C) accumulation rates at the HT Fen and with peatland expansion across Alaska. The HTM in particular may have experienced greater summer precipitation as a result of an enhanced Pacific subtropical high, a pattern consistent with modern δ18O values for summer precipitation. The combined warm summer temperatures and greater summer precipitation helped promote the observed rapid peat accumulation. A strengthened AL (relatively lower δ18OTOM values) is most evident during the Younger Dryas, Neoglaciation, and the Little Ice Age, consistent with lower peat preservation and C accumulation at the HT Fen, suggesting less precipitation reaches the leeward side of the Kenai Mountains during periods of enhanced AL strength. The peatlands on the Kenai Peninsula thrive when the AL is weak and the contribution of summer precipitation is higher, highlighting the importance of precipitation seasonality in promoting peat accumulation. This study demonstrates that δ18OTOM values in peat can be applied toward understand large-scale shifts in atmospheric circulation over millennial timescales.

A deglacial and Holocene record of climate variability in south-central Alaska from stable oxygen isotopes and plant macrofossils in peat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Miriam C.; Wooller, Matthew; Peteet, Dorothy M.

2014-03-01

We used stable oxygen isotopes derived from bulk peat (δ18OTOM), in conjunction with plant macrofossils and previously published carbon accumulation records, in a ˜14,500 cal yr BP peat core (HT Fen) from the Kenai lowlands in south-central Alaska to reconstruct the climate history of the area. We find that patterns are broadly consistent with those from lacustrine records across the region, and agree with the interpretation that major shifts in δ18OTOM values indicate changes in strength and position of the Aleutian Low (AL), a semi-permanent low-pressure cell that delivers winter moisture to the region. We find decreased strength or a more westerly position of the AL (relatively higher δ18OTOM values) during the Bølling-Allerød, Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM), and late Holocene, which also correspond to warmer climate regimes. These intervals coincide with greater peat preservation and enhanced carbon (C) accumulation rates at the HT Fen and with peatland expansion across Alaska. The HTM in particular may have experienced greater summer precipitation as a result of an enhanced Pacific subtropical high, a pattern consistent with modern δ18O values for summer precipitation. The combined warm summer temperatures and greater summer precipitation helped promote the observed rapid peat accumulation. A strengthened AL (relatively lower δ18OTOM values) is most evident during the Younger Dryas, Neoglaciation, and the Little Ice Age, consistent with lower peat preservation and C accumulation at the HT Fen, suggesting less precipitation reaches the leeward side of the Kenai Mountains during periods of enhanced AL strength. The peatlands on the Kenai Peninsula thrive when the AL is weak and the contribution of summer precipitation is higher, highlighting the importance of precipitation seasonality in promoting peat accumulation. This study demonstrates that δ18OTOM values in peat can be applied toward understand large-scale shifts in atmospheric circulation over millennial timescales.

Spatio-temporal characteristics of the diurnal precipitation cycle over Sweden and the linkage to large-scale circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walther, A.; Jeong, J.-H.; Chen, D.

2009-04-01

Rainfall events exhibit diurnal cycle in both frequency and amount, of which phase and amplitude show substantial geographic and seasonal variation. Although the diurnal cycle of precipitation is one of the fundamental characteristics to determine local weather and climate, most of sophisticated climate models still have great deficiencies in reproducing it. Thus more exact understanding of the diurnal precipitation cycle and its mechanisms is thought to be very important to improve climate models and their prediction results. In this work we investigate the diurnal cycle of precipitation in Sweden using ground based hourly observations for 1996-2008. For the precipitation amount and frequency, mean diurnal cycles are computed, and the peak timing and amplitude of the diurnal and semi-diurnal cycle of precipitation are estimated by the harmonic analysis method. Clear mean diurnal precipitation cycles as well as distinct spatial patterns for all seasons are derived. In summer, showing the most distinct pattern, the majority of the stations show a clear rainfall maximum in the afternoon (12-18 LST) except for the coastal part of Central Sweden where we see an early-morning peak (00-06 LST) and the east coast of southern Sweden where we find a morning peak (06-12 LST). The clear afternoon peak may be due to high insolation accumulated during the day time in summer leading to a local convection activity later on that day. These coastal bands mostly consist of the stations closest to the Baltic Sea. Meso-scale convection connected to temperature differences between sea and land combined with a favorable wind pattern seems to play a role here. In the transition seasons, spring and autumn, the amplitude is weaker and the spatial pattern of peak timing is less distinct than in summer. In spring the westcoast stations have a morning peak and stations in southeastern Sweden show an afternoon peak. In autumn we see a zonal division with a clear afternoon peak in southern Sweden. This might be due to a steeply decreasing energy input from the solar insolation in the northern parts causing less convection activity but still enough insolation to cause an afternoon peak in southern Sweden. In both seasons, spring and autumn, north of 60 degrees the pattern is mixed showing early-morning, morning and afternoon peaks. The winter pattern is characterized by afternoon peaks along the eastcoast and central South Sweden and morning peaks over the most of the other parts of the country. However, the amplitude of the diurnal cycle is much weaker compared to that in summer or autumn. In order to examine the large scale circulation which might modulate the diurnal cycle, the Lamb weather types are computed based on sea level pressure fields from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis 2 dataset with daily and 6-hourly resolution, respectively. The Lamb types based on 6-hourly SLP underline the high temporal variability of atmospheric conditions over the research area. Throughout all seasons, on about 45% of the days two or more circulation classes are different. In 6.3% (JJA) to 8.4% (DJF) of the days can observe 4 different Lamb classes. Using Lamb types with 6-hourly resolution leads to a somewhat finer classification. On average, for about one third of the days with precipitation the daily Lamb type and the appropriate 6-hourly one are different. The most frequent large-scale circulation classes coupled to precipitation events are of cyclonic or directional type. The atmospheric circulation patterns do not follow a diurnal cycle, whereas the local observed precipitation does. Knowledge about the timing of the rainfall is important in order to assign the right underlying circulation patterns to precipitation events.

Precipitation-driven carbon balance controls survivorship of desert biocrust mosses.

PubMed

Coe, Kirsten K; Belnap, Jayne; Sparks, Jed P

2012-07-01

Precipitation patterns including the magnitude, timing, and seasonality of rainfall are predicted to undergo substantial alterations in arid regions in the future, and desert organisms may be more responsive to such changes than to shifts in only mean annual rainfall. Soil biocrust communities (consisting of cyanobacteria, lichen, and mosses) are ubiquitous to desert ecosystems, play an array of ecological roles, and display a strong sensitivity to environmental changes. Crust mosses are particularly responsive to changes in precipitation and exhibit rapid declines in biomass and mortality following the addition of small rainfall events. Further, loss of the moss component in biocrusts leads to declines in crust structure and function. In this study, we sought to understand the physiological responses of the widespread and often dominant biocrust moss Syntrichia caninervis to alterations in rainfall. Moss samples were collected during all four seasons and exposed to two rainfall event sizes and three desiccation period (DP) lengths. A carbon balance approach based on single precipitation events was used to define the carbon gain or loss during a particular hydration period. Rainfall event size was the strongest predictor of carbon balance, and the largest carbon gains were associated with the largest precipitation events. In contrast, small precipitation events resulted in carbon deficits for S. caninervis. Increasing the length of the DP prior to an event resulted in reductions in carbon balance, probably because of the increased energetic cost of hydration following more intense bouts of desiccation. The season of collection (i.e., physiological status of the moss) modulated these responses, and the effects of DP and rainfall on carbon balance were different in magnitude (and often in sign) for different seasons. In particular, S. caninervis displayed higher carbon balances in the winter than in the summer, even for events of identical size. Overall, our results suggest that annual carbon balance and survivorship in biocrust mosses are largely driven by precipitation, and because of the role mosses play in biocrusts, changes in intra-annual precipitation patterns can have implications for hydrology, soil stability, and nutrient cycling in dryland systems.

High-resolution projections of mean and extreme precipitations over China through PRECIS under RCPs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Jinxin; Huang, Gordon; Wang, Xiuquan; Cheng, Guanhui; Wu, Yinghui

2018-06-01

The impact of global warming on the characteristics of mean and extreme precipitations over China is investigated by using the Providing REgional Climate Impacts for Studies (PRECIS) model. The PRECIS model was driven by the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2 with Earth System components and coupling (HadGEM2-ES). The results of both models are analyzed in terms of mean precipitation and indices of precipitation extremes (R95p, R99p, SDII, WDF, and CWD) over China at the resolution of 25 km under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios for the baseline period (1976-2005) and two future periods (2036-2065 and 2070-2099). With improved resolution, the PRECIS model is able to better represent the fine-scale physical process than HadGEM2-ES. It can provide reliable spatial patterns of precipitation and its related extremes with high correlations to observations. Moreover, there is a notable improvement in temporal patterns simulation through the PRECIS model. The PRECIS model better reproduces the regional annual cycle and frequencies of daily precipitation intensity than its driving GCM. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, both the HadGEM2-ES and the precis project increasing annual precipitation over the entire country for two future periods. Precipitation increase in winter is greater than the increase in summer. The results suggest that increased radiative forcing from RCP4.5 to RCP8.5 would further intensify the magnitude of projected precipitation changes by both PRECIS and HadGEM2-ES. For example, some parts of south China with decreased precipitation under RCP4.5 would expect even less precipitation under RCP8.5; regions (northwest, northcentral and northeast China) with increased precipitation under RCP4.5 would expect more precipitation under RCP8.5. Apart from the projected increase in annual total precipitation, the results also suggest that there will be an increase in the days with precipitation higher than 15 mm and a decrease in the days with precipitation less than 5 mm. Under both RCPs, there would be an increasing trend in the magnitude of changes in precipitation extremes indices (R95p, R99p, and SDII) over China, while an opposite trend is projected for CWD and no apparent trend is projected for WDF from 2036-2065 to 2070-2099. Increased extreme precipitation amounts accompanied with decreased frequencies of extreme precipitation suggest that the future daily extreme precipitation intensity is likely to become large in northeast China and south China.

Retrospective forecasts of the upcoming winter season snow accumulation in the Inn headwaters (European Alps)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Förster, Kristian; Hanzer, Florian; Stoll, Elena; Scaife, Adam A.; MacLachlan, Craig; Schöber, Johannes; Huttenlau, Matthias; Achleitner, Stefan; Strasser, Ulrich

2018-02-01

This article presents analyses of retrospective seasonal forecasts of snow accumulation. Re-forecasts with 4 months' lead time from two coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (NCEP CFSv2 and MetOffice GloSea5) drive the Alpine Water balance and Runoff Estimation model (AWARE) in order to predict mid-winter snow accumulation in the Inn headwaters. As snowpack is hydrological storage that evolves during the winter season, it is strongly dependent on precipitation totals of the previous months. Climate model (CM) predictions of precipitation totals integrated from November to February (NDJF) compare reasonably well with observations. Even though predictions for precipitation may not be significantly more skilful than for temperature, the predictive skill achieved for precipitation is retained in subsequent water balance simulations when snow water equivalent (SWE) in February is considered. Given the AWARE simulations driven by observed meteorological fields as a benchmark for SWE analyses, the correlation achieved using GloSea5-AWARE SWE predictions is r = 0.57. The tendency of SWE anomalies (i.e. the sign of anomalies) is correctly predicted in 11 of 13 years. For CFSv2-AWARE, the corresponding values are r = 0.28 and 7 of 13 years. The results suggest that some seasonal prediction of hydrological model storage tendencies in parts of Europe is possible.

Field significance of performance measures in the context of regional climate model evaluation. Part 2: precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanov, Martin; Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten; Wulfmeyer, Volker

2018-04-01

A new approach for rigorous spatial analysis of the downscaling performance of regional climate model (RCM) simulations is introduced. It is based on a multiple comparison of the local tests at the grid cells and is also known as `field' or `global' significance. The block length for the local resampling tests is precisely determined to adequately account for the time series structure. New performance measures for estimating the added value of downscaled data relative to the large-scale forcing fields are developed. The methodology is exemplarily applied to a standard EURO-CORDEX hindcast simulation with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the land surface model NOAH at 0.11 ∘ grid resolution. Daily precipitation climatology for the 1990-2009 period is analysed for Germany for winter and summer in comparison with high-resolution gridded observations from the German Weather Service. The field significance test controls the proportion of falsely rejected local tests in a meaningful way and is robust to spatial dependence. Hence, the spatial patterns of the statistically significant local tests are also meaningful. We interpret them from a process-oriented perspective. While the downscaled precipitation distributions are statistically indistinguishable from the observed ones in most regions in summer, the biases of some distribution characteristics are significant over large areas in winter. WRF-NOAH generates appropriate stationary fine-scale climate features in the daily precipitation field over regions of complex topography in both seasons and appropriate transient fine-scale features almost everywhere in summer. As the added value of global climate model (GCM)-driven simulations cannot be smaller than this perfect-boundary estimate, this work demonstrates in a rigorous manner the clear additional value of dynamical downscaling over global climate simulations. The evaluation methodology has a broad spectrum of applicability as it is distribution-free, robust to spatial dependence, and accounts for time series structure.

Relationship between evapotranspiration and precipitation pulses in a semiarid rangeland estimated by moisture flux towers and MODIS vegetation indices

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nagler, P.L.; Glenn, E.P.; Kim, H.; Emmerich, W.; Scott, R.L.; Huxman, T. E.; Huete, A.R.

2007-01-01

We used moisture Bowen ratio flux tower data and the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) from the moderate resolution imaging spectrometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite to measure and scale evapotranspiration (ET) over sparsely vegetated grassland and shrubland sites in a semiarid watershed in southeastern Arizona from 2000 to 2004. The grassland tower site had higher mean annual ET (336 mm yr-1) than the shrubland tower site (266 mm yr-1) (P<0.001). ET measured at the individual tower sites was strongly correlated with EVI (r=0.80-0.94). ET was moderately correlated with precipitation (P), and only weakly correlated with net radiation or air temperature. The strong correlation between ET and EVI, as opposed to the moderate correlation with rainfall, suggests that transpiration (T) is the dominant process controlling ET at these sites. ET could be adequately predicted from EVI and P across seasons and tower sites (r2 = 0.74) by a single multiple regression equation. The regression equation relating ET to EVI and P was used to scale ET over 25 km2 areas of grassland and shrubland around each tower site. Over the study, ratios of T to ET ranged from 0.75 to 1.0. Winter rains stimulated spring ET, and a large rain event in fall, 2000, stimulated ET above T through the following year, indicating that winter rain stored in the soil profile can be an important component of the plants' water budget during the warm season in this ecosystem. We conclude that remotely sensed vegetation indices can be used to scale ground measurements of ET over larger landscape units in semiarid ranglelands, and that the vegetation communities in this landscape effectively harvest the available precipitation over a period of years, even though precipitation patterns are variably seasonally and interannually. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Different historical fire–climate patterns in California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keeley, Jon E.; Syphard, Alexandra D.

2017-01-01

The relationship between annual variation in area burned and seasonal temperatures and precipitation was investigated for the major climate divisions in California. Historical analyses showed marked differences in fires on montane and foothill landscapes. Based on roughly a century of data, there are five important lessons on fire–climate relationships in California: (1) seasonal variations in temperature appear to have had minimal influence on area burned in the lower elevation, mostly non-forested, landscapes; (2) temperature has been a significant factor in controlling fire activity in higher elevation montane forests, but this varied greatly with season – winter and autumn temperatures showed no significant effect, whereas spring and summer temperatures were important determinants of area burned; (3) current season precipitation has been a strong controller of fire activity in forests, with drier years resulting in greater area burned on most United States Forest Service (USFS) lands in the state, but the effect of current-year precipitation was decidedly less on lower elevation California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection lands; (4) in largely grass-dominated foothills and valleys the magnitude of prior-year rainfall was positively tied to area burned in the following year, and we hypothesise that this is tied to greater fuel volume in the year following high rainfall. In the southern part of the state this effect has become stronger in recent decades and this likely is due to accelerated type conversion from shrubland to grassland in the latter part of the 20th century; (5) the strongest fire–climate models were on USFS lands in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, and these explained 42–52% of the variation in area burned; however, the models changed over time, with winter and spring precipitation being the primary drivers in the first half of the 20th century, but replaced by spring and summer temperatures after 1960.

Is There Really an Intermittent Biennial Oscillation in the Great Plains Low-Level Jet Over Texas?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Helfand, H. Mark

2002-01-01

In the 15-year GEOS-1 reanalysis data set, a maximum of interannual variance of low- level meridional flow for the warm season (May through August) occurs over southeast Texas. This variance maximum seems to be dominated by a marked biennial oscillation that occurs only during the first 6 (or possibly 8) years of the reanalysis period (1980-85 or possibly 1980-1987) and then completely disappears by the 9th year. This biennial oscillation seems to be associated with interannual fluctuations in ground wetness, surface temperature and surface pressure gradients over Texas. The periods of drier soil lead to warmer surface temperatures, lower surface pressures, stronger pressure gradients between Texas and the Gulf of Mexico and stronger southerly winds. This intermittent biennial oscillation is also evident in corresponding fields for the the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data set for the years 1978-1985 (and possibly from 1978- 1987) and 1995-2000, but not during other periods. There are also obvious biennial oscillations evident during these periods in U.S. Climate Division records for the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for Texas. Month-by-month correlations of this index with certain el Nino related indices are as high as .45 for the first period and as high as .55 or .6 for the second period for some regions in Texas. The seasonal cycle of the biennial signal in the PDSI and precipitation for the first period suggest that the drought in Texas and Mexico is ended (caused) by a reversal in the sign of anomalies in precipitation rate for the fall/winter season. Analysis of tropical Pacific SST patterns shows a .5 to .75 K biennial oscillation of SSTs along the precipitation-free track to the southwest of the Mexican coast during the fall and winter months of the 1978 to 1985 period that might explain the reversal in precipitation anomalies and hence the entire intermittent biennial oscillation in ground hydrology and low-level flow.

Should we care about diurnal temperatures when calculating the precipitation isotope thermometer?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vachon, R.; Kloeckner, D.

2008-12-01

Long records of the concentrations of stable isotopes of precipitation (SIPs) have long been used as proxies for regional and global climates for periods when meteorological measurements were not made. SIPs' longstanding correlation to local surface temperatures (in many locations) and molecular thermal dynamics have lead to many interpretations of variability in SIPs to be changes in local temperatures. In order to create accurate temperature-SIP transfer functions one needs to link modern SIP concentrations to temperatures of when precipitation happened. A well-sited example of complexities in the temperature-SIP relationships - For simplicity one may assume that annual precipitation occurred at the same time of year throughout a long SIP archive, however, it is possible that the timing of precipitation actually shifted from summer to winter months. If the temperature difference between the seasons is large the SIP archive could be wrongly interpreted as a several degree cooling in average annual temperatures. Temperature changes similar in magnitude to seasonal fluctuations are also observed throughout a given day. What would happen if precipitation shifted from mid-afternoon to nighttime events? This line of thinking implies that diurnal effects plausibly should be considered when calculating SIP-transfer functions. This is particularly convincing when precipitation for a region is powered by middle of the day (summer) heat causing convective precipitation or evening cooling increasing relative humidities near the land's surface. This study examines both theoretical and observed (5 locations within North America) surface temperatures at the time of precipitation throughout a day and estimates diurnal effects on SIP-transfer functions. Ultimately, one must ask, how high does condensation form, and what are daily temperature patterns at those heights?

Relation of precipitation quality to storm type, and deposition of dissolved chemical constituents from precipitation in Massachusetts, 1983-85

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gay, F.B.; Melching, C.S.

1995-01-01

Precipitation samples were collected for 83 storms at a rural inland site in Princeton, Mass., and 73 storms at a rural coastal site in Truro, Mass., to examine the quality of precipitation from storms and relate quality to three storm types (oceanic cyclone, continental cyclone, and cold front). At the inland site, Princeton, ranked-means of precipitation depth, storm duration, specific conductance, and concentrations and loads of hydrogen, sulfate, aluminum, bromide, and copper ions were affected by storm type. At the coastal site, Truro, ranked means of precipitation depth, storm duration, and concentrations and loads of calcium, chloride, magnesium, potassium, and sodium ions were affected by storm type. Precipitation chemistry at the coastal site was 85 percent oceanic in orgin, whereas precipitation 72 kilometers inland was 60 percent hydrogen, nitrate, and sulfate ions, reflecting fossil-fuel combustion. Concentrations and loads for specific conductance and 9 chemical constituents on an annual and seasonal basis were determined from National Atmospheric Deposition Program data for spring 1983 through winter 1985 at Quabbin (rural, inland), Waltham (suburban, inland) and Truro (rural, coastal), Massachusetts. Concentrations of magnesium, potassium, sodium, and chloride concentrations were highest at the coast and much lower inland, with very little difference between Waltham and Quabbin. Loads of ammonium, nitrate, sulfate, and hydrogen are highest at Quabbin and are about equal at Waltham and Truro. About twice as much nitrate and hydrogen and about 35 percent more sulfate is deposited at Quabbin than at Waltham or Truro; this pattern indicates that the interior of Massachusetts receives more acidic precipitation than do the eastern or the coastal areas of Massachusetts.

The influence of north Pacific atmospheric circulation on streamflow in the west

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cayan, Daniel R.; Peterson, David H.

1989-01-01

The annual cycle and nonseasonal variability of streamflow over western North America and Hawaii is studied in terms of atmospheric forcing elements. This study uses several decades of monthly average streamflow beginning as early as the late 1800's over a network of 38 stations. In addition to a strong annual cycle in mean streamflow and its variance at most of the stations, there is also a distinct annual cycle in the autocorrelation of anomalies that is related to the interplay between the annual cycles of temperature and precipitation. Of particular importance to these lag effects is the well-known role of water stored as snow pack, which controls the delay between peak precipitation and peak flow and also introduces persistence into the nonseasonal streamflow anomalies, with time scales from 1 month to over 1 year. The degree to which streamflow is related to winter atmospheric circulation over the North Pacific and western North America is tested using correlations with time averaged, gridded sea level pressure (SLP), which begins in 1899. Streamflow fluctuations show significant large-scale correlations for the winter (December through February) mean SLP anomaly patterns over the North Pacific with maximum correlations ranging from 0.3 to about 0.6. For streams along the west coast corridor the circulation pattern associated with positive streamflow anomalies is low pressure centered off the coast to the west or northwest, indicative of increased winter storms and an anomalous westerly-to-southwesterly wind component. For streams in the interior positive streamflow anomalies are associated with a positive SLP anomaly stationed remotely over the central North Pacific, and with negative but generally weaker SLP anomalies locally. One important influence on streamflow variability is the strength of the Aleutian Low in winter. This is represented by the familiar Pacific-North America (PNA) index and also by an index defined herein the “CNP” (Central North Pacific). This index, beginning in 1899, is taken to be the average of the SLP anomaly south of the Aleutians and the western Gulf of Alaska. Correlations between PNA or CNP and regional anomalies reflect streamflow the alternations in strength and position of the mean North Pacific storm track entering North America as well as shifts in the trade winds over the subtropical North Pacific. Regions whose streamflow is best tuned to the PNA or CNP include coastal Alaska, the northwestern United States, and Hawaii; the latter two regions have the opposite sign anomaly as the former. The pattern of streamflow variations associated with El Niño is similar, but the El Niño signal also includes a tendency for greater than normal streamflow in the southwestern United States. These indices are significantly correlated with streamflow at one to two seasons in advance of the December–August period, which may allow modestly skillful forecasts. It is important to note that streamflow variability in some areas, such as British Columbia and California, does not respond consistently to these broad scale Pacific atmospheric circulation indices, but is related to regional atmospheric anomaly features over the eastern North Pacific. Spatially, streamflow anomalies are fairly well correlated over scales of several hundred kilometers. Inspection of the spatial anomalies of stream-flow in this study suggest an asymmetry in the spatial pattern of positive versus negative streamflow anomalies in the western United States: dry patterns have tended to be larger and more spatially coherent than wet patterns.

Changes in daily and monthly rainfall in the Middle Yellow River, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Yi; Tian, Peng; Mu, Xingmin; Gao, Peng; Zhao, Guangju; Wang, Fei; Li, Pengfei

2017-07-01

Highly concentrated precipitation, where a large percentage of annual precipitation occurs over a few days, may include a high risk of flooding and severe soil erosion. Thus, areas with severe erosion such as the Loess Plateau in China are particularly vulnerable to highly concentrated precipitation events due to climate change. In this study, we investigated spatial and temporal patterns in the concentration of rainfall in the Middle Yellow River (MYR) from the last 56 years (1958-2013). We used daily and monthly precipitation data from 26 meteorological stations in the study area to calculate the precipitation concentration index (PCI) and the concentration index (CI). The southern and northern parts of the MYR were characterized by a lower CI with a decreasing trend, while the middle parts had a higher CI with an increasing trend. High PCI values occurred in the southern MYR, while lower PCIs with a more homogenous rainfall distribution were found mainly in the northern parts of the MYR. The annual PCI and CI exhibited positive trends at most stations, although only a minority of stations had significant trends ( P < 0.05). At seasonal scales, CI exhibited significantly increasing trends in winter at most stations, while a few stations had significant trends in the other three seasons. These findings provide important reference information to facilitate ecological restoration and farming operations in the study region.

Improving simulations of precipitation phase and snowpack at a site subject to cold air intrusions: Snoqualmie Pass, WA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wayand, Nicholas E.; Stimberis, John; Zagrodnik, Joseph P.; Mass, Clifford F.; Lundquist, Jessica D.

2016-09-01

Low-level cold air from eastern Washington often flows westward through mountain passes in the Washington Cascades, creating localized inversions and locally reducing climatological temperatures. The persistence of this inversion during a frontal passage can result in complex patterns of snow and rain that are difficult to predict. Yet these predictions are critical to support highway avalanche control, ski resort operations, and modeling of headwater snowpack storage. In this study we used observations of precipitation phase from a disdrometer and snow depth sensors across Snoqualmie Pass, WA, to evaluate surface-air-temperature-based and mesoscale-model-based predictions of precipitation phase during the anomalously warm 2014-2015 winter. Correlations of phase between surface-based methods and observations were greatly improved (r2 from 0.45 to 0.66) and frozen precipitation biases reduced (+36% to -6% of accumulated snow water equivalent) by using air temperature from a nearby higher-elevation station, which was less impacted by low-level inversions. Alternatively, we found a hybrid method that combines surface-based predictions with output from the Weather Research and Forecasting mesoscale model to have improved skill (r2 = 0.61) over both parent models (r2 = 0.42 and 0.55). These results suggest that prediction of precipitation phase in mountain passes can be improved by incorporating observations or models from above the surface layer.

Soil microbial and nutrient responses to 7 years of seasonally altered precipitation in a Chihuahuan Desert grassland.

PubMed

Bell, Colin W; Tissue, David T; Loik, Michael E; Wallenstein, Matthew D; Acosta-Martinez, Veronica; Erickson, Richard A; Zak, John C

2014-05-01

Soil microbial communities in Chihuahuan Desert grasslands generally experience highly variable spatiotemporal rainfall patterns. Changes in precipitation regimes can affect belowground ecosystem processes such as decomposition and nutrient cycling by altering soil microbial community structure and function. The objective of this study was to determine if increased seasonal precipitation frequency and magnitude over a 7-year period would generate a persistent shift in microbial community characteristics and soil nutrient availability. We supplemented natural rainfall with large events (one/winter and three/summer) to simulate increased precipitation based on climate model predictions for this region. We observed a 2-year delay in microbial responses to supplemental precipitation treatments. In years 3-5, higher microbial biomass, arbuscular mycorrhizae abundance, and soil enzyme C and P acquisition activities were observed in the supplemental water plots even during extended drought periods. In years 5-7, available soil P was consistently lower in the watered plots compared to control plots. Shifts in soil P corresponded to higher fungal abundances, microbial C utilization activity, and soil pH. This study demonstrated that 25% shifts in seasonal rainfall can significantly influence soil microbial and nutrient properties, which in turn may have long-term effects on nutrient cycling and plant P uptake in this desert grassland. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Comparisons of observed seasonal climate features with a winter and summer numerical simulation produced with the GLAS general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halem, M.; Shukla, J.; Mintz, Y.; Wu, M. L.; Godbole, R.; Herman, G.; Sud, Y.

1979-01-01

Results are presented from numerical simulations performed with the general circulation model (GCM) for winter and summer. The monthly mean simulated fields for each integration are compared with observed geographical distributions and zonal averages. In general, the simulated sea level pressure and upper level geopotential height field agree well with the observations. Well simulated features are the winter Aleutian and Icelandic lows, the summer southwestern U.S. low, the summer and winter oceanic subtropical highs in both hemispheres, and the summer upper level Tibetan high and Atlantic ridge. The surface and upper air wind fields in the low latitudes are in good agreement with the observations. The geographical distirbutions of the Earth-atmosphere radiation balance and of the precipitation rates over the oceans are well simulated, but not all of the intensities of these features are correct. Other comparisons are shown for precipitation along the ITCZ, rediation balance, zonally averaged temperatures and zonal winds, and poleward transports of momentum and sensible heat.

Macrophysical climate models and Holocene hunter-gatherer subsistence shifts in Central Texas, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauldin, R. P.; Munoz, C.

2013-12-01

We use stable carbon isotopic values from bone collagen, as well as carbon values from carbonate extracted from bone apatite from 69 prehistoric human skeletal samples to investigate past resource use and climate relationships over the Middle and Late Holocene in Central Texas. Bone samples come from seven archaeological sites and samples date from 6,900 BP to the close of the prehistoric sequence at about 350 BP. Carbon isotopes from these samples suggest four broad dietary trends. From 6,900 through about 3,800 BP, carbon isotopes suggest a gradual increase in the consumption of resources that ultimately use a C3 photosynthetic pathway. A decline in δ13C in both collagen and carbonate values follows, suggesting a decrease in C3 resource use through roughly 2,900 BP. A variable, but once again increasing pattern on C3 resource use by prehistoric hunter-gatherers is indicated in bone isotopes through about 1,000 BP. After that date, a decrease in C3 resource dependence, with hints at greater subsistence diversity, is suggested through the close of the sequence at 350 BP. To assess the impact of climate shifts on this isotopic pattern, we developed a series of macrophysical climate models (MCM) for several locations in Central Texas focusing on fall, winter, and early spring precipitation. This fall-spring rainfall should closely determine C3 production. If subsistence shifts are responding to climate-induced changes in resource availability, then the measured hunter-gatherer carbon isotope trends summarized above should pattern with C3 production as monitored by the modeled fall-spring precipitation values. For the Middle Holocene portion of the sequence, the precipitation models suggest increasing C3 production, consistent with increasing C3 dependence shown in the isotopic data. A decline in C3 production between 3,900 and 3,000 BP in the models is also consistent with the isotopic decline at that point. After 3,000 BP, however, the coupling between fall-spring rainfall pattern and the bone isotope patterns begin to break down. Precipitation models suggest an essentially flat or slightly increasing pattern of production, while the isotopic data show a rapid C3 increase, and then a decline. This divergence is especially the case late in the sequence, with isotopic patterns showing rapid decreases in C3 resource use that are not consistent with the macrophysical climate models. If the precipitation models are accurate, the Late Holocene pattern of resource use reflects additional elements (e.g., regional population density changes, mobility shifts, social alliances) that require investigation. Standardized values. Data point colors reflect distinct climate trends.

Prediction of the Arctic Oscillation in Boreal Winter by Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kang, Daehyun; Lee, Myong-In; Im, Jungho; Kim, Daehyun; Kim, Hye-Mi; Kang, Hyun-Suk; Shubert, Siegfried D.; Arriba, Albertom; MacLachlan, Craig

2013-01-01

This study assesses the prediction skill of the boreal winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) in the state-of-the-art dynamical ensemble prediction systems (EPSs): the UKMO GloSea4, the NCEP CFSv2, and the NASA GEOS-5. Long-term reforecasts made with the EPSs are used to evaluate representations of the AO, and to examine skill scores for the deterministic and probabilistic forecast of the AO index. The reforecasts reproduce the observed changes in the large-scale patterns of the Northern Hemispheric surface temperature, upper-level wind, and precipitation according to the AO phase. Results demonstrate that all EPSs have better prediction skill than the persistence prediction for lead times up to 3-month, suggesting a great potential for skillful prediction of the AO and the associated climate anomalies in seasonal time scale. It is also found that the deterministic and probabilistic forecast skill of the AO in the recent period (1997-2010) is higher than that in the earlier period (1983-1996).

Remote Linkages to Anomalous Winter Atmospheric Ridging over the Northeastern Pacific

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Swain, Daniel L.; Singh, Deepti; Horton, Daniel E.; Mankin, Justin S.; Ballard, Tristan C.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

2017-01-01

Severe drought in California between 2013 and 2016 has been linked to the multiyear persistence of anomalously high atmospheric pressure over the northeastern Pacific Ocean, which deflected the Pacific storm track northward and suppressed regional precipitation during California's winter 'rainy season.' Multiple hypotheses have emerged regarding why this high pressure ridge near the west coast of North America was so resilient-including unusual sea surface temperature patterns in the Pacific Ocean, reductions in Arctic sea ice, random atmospheric variability, or some combination thereof. Here we explore relationships between previously documented atmospheric conditions over the North Pacific and several potential remote oceanic and cryospheric influences using both observational data and a large ensemble of climate model simulations. Our results suggest that persistent wintertime atmospheric ridging similar to that implicated in California's 2013-2016 drought can at least partially be linked to unusual Pacific sea surface temperatures, and that Pacific Ocean conditions may offer some degree of cool-season foresight in this region despite the presence of substantial internal variability.

Remote Linkages to Anomalous Winter Atmospheric Ridging Over the Northeastern Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swain, Daniel L.; Singh, Deepti; Horton, Daniel E.; Mankin, Justin S.; Ballard, Tristan C.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

2017-11-01

Severe drought in California between 2013 and 2016 has been linked to the multiyear persistence of anomalously high atmospheric pressure over the northeastern Pacific Ocean, which deflected the Pacific storm track northward and suppressed regional precipitation during California's winter "rainy season." Multiple hypotheses have emerged regarding why this high pressure ridge near the west coast of North America was so resilient—including unusual sea surface temperature patterns in the Pacific Ocean, reductions in Arctic sea ice, random atmospheric variability, or some combination thereof. Here we explore relationships between previously documented atmospheric conditions over the North Pacific and several potential remote oceanic and cryospheric influences using both observational data and a large ensemble of climate model simulations. Our results suggest that persistent wintertime atmospheric ridging similar to that implicated in California's 2013-2016 drought can at least partially be linked to unusual Pacific sea surface temperatures and that Pacific Ocean conditions may offer some degree of cool-season foresight in this region despite the presence of substantial internal variability.

European summer heatwaves and North Atlantic weather regimes in the last Millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez Castro, Maria del Carmen; Trasancos, Romain; Yiou, Pascal

2015-04-01

The European summer heatwaves have been increasing in frequency and magnitude in the past decades. A higher confidence in future changes in such extremes necessitates to have a better knowledge about extremes behavior in the past climate. The last millennium is well documented in terms of climate forcings. Modelling efforts have provided a wealth of climate simulations covering the last millennium. We want to exploit such data in order to assess how models simulate extreme summer heatwaves. The surface temperature and precipitation are closely related to atmospheric patterns. It has been shown that rainy winter/spring seasons reduce the frequency of hot summer days whereas dry seasons can be followed by summers with high or low frequency of hot days. In this poster, we show the relation between winter/spring precipitation with the frequency of hot days in the 10 hottest summers in Europe and Southern Europe during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP 1150-1250), the Little Ice Age (LIA 1650-1750), and the historical-present period (1850-2005). We first focus on a millennium simulations with the IPSL model (IPSL-CM5). We use daily temperature, precipitation, and SLP data from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) and a couple of IPSL simulations with diferents forcings. Summer weather regimes has been computed as well for NCEP sea level pressure data in order to compare observations with the same period (1948-2005) in CMIP5 and IPSL simulations outputs. We discuss and present the results comparing the effects of hydrological deficits in the preceding season, and the occurrence of specific weather regimes, during the hottest summers over Europe and SouthWestern Europe. This analysis compares differents climate forcings simulations.

Large and local-scale influences on physical and chemical characteristics of coastal waters of Western Europe during winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tréguer, Paul; Goberville, Eric; Barrier, Nicolas; L'Helguen, Stéphane; Morin, Pascal; Bozec, Yann; Rimmelin-Maury, Peggy; Czamanski, Marie; Grossteffan, Emilie; Cariou, Thierry; Répécaud, Michel; Quéméner, Loic

2014-11-01

There is now a strong scientific consensus that coastal marine systems of Western Europe are highly sensitive to the combined effects of natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change. However, it still remains challenging to assess the spatial and temporal scales at which climate influence operates. While large-scale hydro-climatic indices, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or the East Atlantic Pattern (EAP) and the weather regimes such as the Atlantic Ridge (AR), are known to be relevant predictors of physical processes, changes in coastal waters can also be related to local hydro-meteorological and geochemical forcing. Here, we study the temporal variability of physical and chemical characteristics of coastal waters located at about 48°N over the period 1998-2013 using (1) sea surface temperature, (2) sea surface salinity and (3) nutrient concentration observations for two coastal sites located at the outlet of the Bay of Brest and off Roscoff, (4) river discharges of the major tributaries close to these two sites and (5) regional and local precipitation data over the region of interest. Focusing on the winter months, we characterize the physical and chemical variability of these coastal waters and document changes in both precipitation and river runoffs. Our study reveals that variability in coastal waters is connected to the large-scale North Atlantic atmospheric circulation but is also partly explained by local river influences. Indeed, while the NAO is strongly related to changes in sea surface temperature at the Brest and Roscoff sites, the EAP and the AR have a major influence on precipitations, which in turn modulate river discharges that impact sea surface salinity at the scale of the two coastal stations.

Modeling the Pineapple Express phenomenon via Multivariate Extreme Value Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weller, G.; Cooley, D. S.

2011-12-01

The pineapple express (PE) phenomenon is responsible for producing extreme winter precipitation events in the coastal and mountainous regions of the western United States. Because the PE phenomenon is also associated with warm temperatures, the heavy precipitation and associated snowmelt can cause destructive flooding. In order to study impacts, it is important that regional climate models from NARCCAP are able to reproduce extreme precipitation events produced by PE. We define a daily precipitation quantity which captures the spatial extent and intensity of precipitation events produced by the PE phenomenon. We then use statistical extreme value theory to model the tail dependence of this quantity as seen in an observational data set and each of the six NARCCAP regional models driven by NCEP reanalysis. We find that most NCEP-driven NARCCAP models do exhibit tail dependence between daily model output and observations. Furthermore, we find that not all extreme precipitation events are pineapple express events, as identified by Dettinger et al. (2011). The synoptic-scale atmospheric processes that drive extreme precipitation events produced by PE have only recently begun to be examined. Much of the current work has focused on pattern recognition, rather than quantitative analysis. We use daily mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) fields from NCEP to develop a "pineapple express index" for extreme precipitation, which exhibits tail dependence with our observed precipitation quantity for pineapple express events. We build a statistical model that connects daily precipitation output from the WRFG model, daily MSLP fields from NCEP, and daily observed precipitation in the western US. Finally, we use this model to simulate future observed precipitation based on WRFG output driven by the CCSM model, and our pineapple express index derived from future CCSM output. Our aim is to use this model to develop a better understanding of the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events produced by PE under climate change.

The Community Land Model and Its Climate Statistics as a Component of the Community Climate System Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dickinson, Robert E.; Oleson, Keith; Bonan, Gordon

2006-01-01

Several multidecadal simulations have been carried out with the new version of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM). This paper reports an analysis of the land component of these simulations. Global annual averages over land appear to be within the uncertainty of observational datasets, but the seasonal cycle over land of temperature and precipitation appears to be too weak. These departures from observations appear to be primarily a consequence of deficiencies in the simulation of the atmospheric model rather than of the land processes. High latitudes of northern winter are biased sufficiently warm to have a significant impact on themore » simulated value of global land temperature. The precipitation is approximately doubled from what it should be at some locations, and the snowpack and spring runoff are also excessive. The winter precipitation over Tibet is larger than observed. About two-thirds of this precipitation is sublimated during the winter, but what remains still produces a snowpack that is very large compared to that observed with correspondingly excessive spring runoff. A large cold anomaly over the Sahara Desert and Sahel also appears to be a consequence of a large anomaly in downward longwave radiation; low column water vapor appears to be most responsible. The modeled precipitation over the Amazon basin is low compared to that observed, the soil becomes too dry, and the temperature is too warm during the dry season.« less

El Nino - La Nina Implications on Flood Hazard Mitigation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

R. French; J. Miller

The effects of El Nino and La Nina periods on the maximum daily winter period depths of precipitation are examined using records from five precipitation gages on the Nevada Test Site. The potential implications of these effects are discussed.

Evaluation of East Asian climatology as simulated by seven coupled models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Dabang; Wang, Huijun; Lang, Xianmei

2005-07-01

Using observation and reanalysis data throughout 1961 1990, the East Asian surface air temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure climatology as simulated by seven fully coupled atmosphere-ocean models, namely CCSR/NIES, CGCM2, CSIRO-Mk2, ECHAM4/OPYC3, GFDL-R30, HadCM3, and NCAR-PCM, are systematically evaluated in this study. It is indicated that the above models can successfully reproduce the annual and seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation climatology in East Asia, with relatively good performance for boreal autumn and annual mean. The models’ ability to simulate surface air temperature is more reliable than precipitation. In addition, the models can dependably capture the geographical distribution pattern of annual, boreal winter, spring and autumn sea level pressure in East Asia. In contrast, relatively large simulation errors are displayed when simulated boreal summer sea level pressure is compared with reanalysis data in East Asia. It is revealed that the simulation errors for surface air temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure are generally large over and around the Tibetan Plateau. No individual model is best in every aspect. As a whole, the ECHAM4/OPYC3 and HadCM3 performances are much better, whereas the CGCM2 is relatively poorer in East Asia. Additionally, the seven-model ensemble mean usually shows a relatively high reliability.

Robust Spring Drying in the Southwestern U.S. and Seasonal Migration of Wet/Dry Patterns in a Warmer Climate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gao, Yang; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Lu, Jian

2014-03-16

This study compares climate simulations over the United States produced by a regional climate model with the driving global climate simulations as well as a large multi-model ensemble of global climate simulations to investigate robust changes in water availability (precipitation (P) – evapotranspiration (E)). A robust spring dry signal across multiple models is identified in the Southwest that results from a decrease in P and an increase in E in the future. In the boreal winter and summer, the prominent changes in P – E are associated with a north – south dipole pattern, while in spring, the prominent changesmore » in P – E appear as an east – west dipole pattern. The progression of the north – south and east – west dipole patterns through the seasons manifests clearly as a seasonal “clockwise” migration of wet/dry patterns, which is shown to be a robust feature of water availability changes in the US consistent across regional and global climate simulations.« less

Estimates of groundwater recharge rates and sources in the East Mountain area, Eastern Bernalillo County, New Mexico, 2005-12

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rice, Steven E.; Crilley, Dianna M.

2014-01-01

Stable isotope data from springs and snowpacks sampled in the East Mountain area were compared with local, regional, and global meteoric water lines and were analyzed along with values representing the stable isotope composition of winter precipitation and summer monsoonal rains. Results of the stable isotope analysis from springs in this study suggested that winter precipitation is the primary source of groundwater recharge to the aquifers supplying the springs, but there is a component of more isotopically enriched precipitation being recharged as well, likely from summer monsoonal rains. Specific conductance, groundwater-level hydrographs, snowpack chemistry, and snow-water equivalent data were used to inform the analyses and corroborate the findings of the CMB and stable isotope results.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chang, Won; Stein, Michael L.; Wang, Jiali

Climate models robustly imply that some significant change in precipitation patterns will occur. Models consistently project that the intensity of individual precipitation events increases by approximately 6-7%/K, following the increase in atmospheric water content, but that total precipitation increases by a lesser amount (2-3%/K in the global average). Some other aspect of precipitation events must then change to compensate for this difference. We develop here a new methodology for identifying individual rainstorms and studying their physical characteristics - including starting location, intensity, spatial extent, duration, and trajectory - that allows identifying that compensating mechanism. We apply this technique to precipitationmore » over the contiguous U.S. from both radar-based data products and high-resolution model runs simulating 100 years of business-as-usual warming. In model studies, we find that the dominant compensating mechanism is a reduction of storm size. In summer, rainstorms become more intense but smaller; in winter, rainstorm shrinkage still dominates, but storms also become less numerous and shorter duration. These results imply that flood impacts from climate change will be less severe than would be expected from changes in precipitation intensity alone. We show also that projected changes are smaller than model-observation biases, implying that the best means of incorporating them into impact assessments is via "data-driven simulations" that apply model-projected changes to observational data. We therefore develop a simulation algorithm that statistically describes model changes in precipitation characteristics and adjusts data accordingly, and show that, especially for summertime precipitation, it outperforms simulation approaches that do not include spatial information.« less

Persistence of the North American Monsoon over the last 50,000 years in Arizona, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cole, K. L.; Ironside, K. E.; Cobb, N. S.

2012-12-01

Reconstruction of monsoon rainfall in the American southwest over the last 50,000 years has been complicated by past massive shifts in temperature and winter precipitation, as well as the rarity of proxy sources. Paleogeographical analysis of plant species distributions from plant macrofossils contained within packrat middens and sediment cores portray substantial shifts that are most easily attributed to these larger changes in temperature and winter precipitation. But some species can be more reliably associated with summer precipitation through spatial analyses of their climate space within their contemporary habitat. For example, warm-season C4 grasses and summer annuals were infrequent in southern Arizona throughout the late Wisconsinan, likely because of much lower temperatures and much higher levels of winter rainfall. But other species, today typical of summer precipitation regions further north, were especially abundant during selected intervals. Macrofossils of Arizona single-leaf pinyon (Pinus edulis var. fallax) and one seed juniper (Juniperus monosperma) are abundant in middens from northern Arizona and southern Utah ranging from 30,400 to > 50,000 C14 yr BP, suggesting at least 200% of the current summer precipitation. The abundance of Arizona single-leaf pinyon throughout Arizona during the Allerød Interval (~13.9 ka to ~12.9 ka) suggests that summer precipitation was at least 120% of modern. The rapid expansion and dominance of the southwestern interior race of Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), as well as increases in Rocky Mountain Juniper (Juniperus scopulorum), during the earliest Holocene (~11.7 ka to ~10.2 Ka) portray summer precipitation somewhat greater than that of today. These paleobotanical conclusions are supported by a recent analysis of Deuterium isotopes from 120 middens in 5 regional series. These isotopic values should reflect the relative frequency of precipitation originating from Pacific winter cyclonic storms versus sub-tropical summer monsoonal convective precipitation. This correlation was supported by the analysis of 41 modern samples from throughout the region. Higher values, similar to modern levels, were recorded during the Allerød Interval and earliest Holocene. Much lower levels were recorded during the Full-glacial Wisconsinan and the Younger Dryas Period. These paleogeograpic records and isotopic analyses are temporally and spatially consistent. They suggest that the climate mechanisms responsible transport of summer moisture into Arizona have persisted at various times during the late Wisconsinan, although the amounts, transport dynamics, and moisture sources may have shifted from time to time.

Saptial and Temporal in Stable Carbon and Oxygen Isotope Ratios of Juvenile Winter Flounder Otoliths From Selected Nursery Areas

EPA Science Inventory

Winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus) populations have supported large commercial and recreational fisheries along the coast of New England. In recent years, however, the population of this important species has declined precipitously in some areas, especially Narragan...

Evaluating Precipitation Elevation Gradients in the Alaska Range using Ice Core and Alpine Weather Station Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McConnell, E.; Osterberg, E. C.; Winski, D.; Kreutz, K. J.; Wake, C. P.; Campbell, S. W.; Ferris, D. G.; Birkel, S. D.

2016-12-01

Precipitation in Alaska is sensitive to the Aleutian Low (ALow) pressure system and North Pacific sea-surface temperatures, as shown by the increase in Alaskan sub-Arctic precipitation associated with the 1976 shift to the positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Precipitation in the high-elevation accumulation zones of Alaskan alpine glaciers provides critical mass input for glacial mass balance, which has been declining in recent decades from warmer summer temperatures despite the winter precipitation increase. Twin >1500-year ice cores collected from the summit plateau of Mount Hunter in Denali National Park, Alaska show a remarkable doubling of annual snow accumulation over the past 150 years, with most of the change observed in the winter. Other alpine ice cores collected from the Alaska and Saint Elias ranges show similar snowfall increases over recent decades. However, although Alaskan weather stations at low elevation recorded a 7-38% increase in winter precipitation across the 1976 PDO transition, this increase is not as substantial as that recorded in the Mt. Hunter ice core. Weather stations at high-elevation alpine sites are comparatively rare, and reasons for the enhanced precipitation trends at high elevation in Alaska remain unclear. Here we use Automatic Weather Station data from the Mt. Hunter drill site (3,900 m a.s.l) and from nearby Denali climber's Base Camp (2,195 m a.s.l.) to evaluate the relationships between alpine and lowland Alaskan precipitation on annual, seasonal, and storm-event temporal scales from 2008-2016. Both stations are located on snow and have sonic snow depth sounders to record daily precipitation. We focus on the role of variable ALow and North Pacific High strength in influencing Alaskan precipitation elevational gradients, particularly in association with the extreme 2015-2016 El Niño event, the 2009-2010 moderate El Niño event, and the 2010-2011 moderate La Niña event. Our analysis will improve our paleoclimate interpretations of the 1200-year Mt. Hunter accumulation record, and improve our ability to integrate low-elevation hydroclimate proxies from lake sediment cores.

Predicting and downscaling ENSO impacts on intraseasonal precipitation statistics in California: The 1997/98 event

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gershunov, A.; Barnett, T.P.; Cayan, D.R.; Tubbs, T.; Goddard, L.

2000-01-01

Three long-range forecasting methods have been evaluated for prediction and downscaling of seasonal and intraseasonal precipitation statistics in California. Full-statistical, hybrid-dynamical - statistical and full-dynamical approaches have been used to forecast El Nin??o - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) - related total precipitation, daily precipitation frequency, and average intensity anomalies during the January - March season. For El Nin??o winters, the hybrid approach emerges as the best performer, while La Nin??a forecasting skill is poor. The full-statistical forecasting method features reasonable forecasting skill for both La Nin??a and El Nin??o winters. The performance of the full-dynamical approach could not be evaluated as rigorously as that of the other two forecasting schemes. Although the full-dynamical forecasting approach is expected to outperform simpler forecasting schemes in the long run, evidence is presented to conclude that, at present, the full-dynamical forecasting approach is the least viable of the three, at least in California. The authors suggest that operational forecasting of any intraseasonal temperature, precipitation, or streamflow statistic derivable from the available records is possible now for ENSO-extreme years.

1988 Wet deposition temporal and spatial patterns in North America

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Simpson, J.C.; Olsen, A.R.; Bittner, E.A.

1992-03-01

The focus of this report is on North American wet deposition temporal patterns from 1979 to 1988 and spatial patterns for 1988. It is the third in a series of reports that investigate the patterns of annual precipitation-weighted average concentration and annual deposition for nine ion species: hydrogen, sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, calcium, chloride, sodium, potassium, and magnesium. Mosaic maps, based on surface estimation using kriging, display concentration and deposition spatial patterns of pH, hydrogen, sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, and calcium ion species for 1988 annual, winter, and summer periods. Temporal pattern analyses use a subset of 35 sites over a 10-yearmore » (1979--1988) period and an expanded subset of 137 sites, with greater spatial coverage, over a 7-year (1982--1988) period. The 10-year period represents the longest period with wet deposition monitoring data available that has a sufficient number of sites with data of known quality to allow a descriptive summary of annual temporal patterns. Sen`s median trend estimate and Kendall`s seasonal tau (KST) test are calculated for each ion species concentration and deposition at each site in both subsets.« less

Climatic effects on breeding grounds are more important drivers of breeding phenology in migrant birds than carry-over effects from wintering grounds.

PubMed

Ockendon, Nancy; Leech, Dave; Pearce-Higgins, James W

2013-01-01

Long-distance migrants may be particularly vulnerable to climate change on both wintering and breeding grounds. However, the relative importance of climatic variables at different stages of the annual cycle is poorly understood, even in well-studied Palaearctic migrant species. Using a national dataset spanning 46 years, we investigate the impact of wintering ground precipitation and breeding ground temperature on breeding phenology and clutch size of 19 UK migrants. Although both spring temperature and arid zone precipitation were significantly correlated with laying date, the former accounted for 3.5 times more inter-annual variation. Neither climate variable strongly affected clutch size. Thus, although carry-over effects had some impact, they were weaker drivers of reproductive traits than conditions on the breeding grounds.

Trends in monthly precipitation over the northwest of Iran (NWI)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asakereh, Hossein

2017-10-01

Increasing global temperatures during the last century have had their own effects on other climatic conditions, particularly on precipitation characteristics. This study was meant to investigate the spatial and temporal monthly trends of precipitation using the least square error (LSE) approach for the northwest of Iran (NWI). To this end, a database was obtained from 250 measuring stations uniformly scattered all over NWI from 1961 to 2010. The spatial average of annual precipitation in NWI during the period of study was approximately 220.9-726.7 mm. The annual precipitation decreased from southwest to northeast, while the large amount of precipitation was concentrated in the south-west and in the mountainous areas. All over NWI, the maximum and minimum precipitation records occurred from March to May and July to September, respectively. The coefficient of variation (CV) is greater than 44 % in all of NWI and may reach over 76 % in many places. The greatest range of CV, for instance, occurred during July. The spatial variability of precipitation was consistent with a tempo-spatial pattern of precipitation trends. There was a considerable difference between the amounts of change during the months, and the negative trends were mainly attributed to areas concentrated in eastern and southern parts of NWI far from the western mountain ranges. Moreover, limited areas with positive precipitation trends can be found in very small and isolated regions. This is observable particularly in the eastern half of NWI, which is mostly located far from Westerlies. On the other hand, seasonal precipitation trends indicated a slight decrease during winter and spring and a slight increase during summer and autumn. Consequently, there were major changes in average precipitation that occurred negatively in the area under study during the observation period. This finding is in agreement with those findings by recent studies which revealed a decreasing trend of around 2 mm/year over NWI during 1966-2005.

Polyfluorinated and perfluorinated chemicals in precipitation and runoff from cities across eastern and central China.

PubMed

Zhao, Lijie; Zhou, Meng; Zhang, Tao; Sun, Hongwen

2013-02-01

Twenty-three polychlorinated and perfluorinated compounds (PFCs) were investigated in water phase and particulate matters of 19 precipitation samples (18 snow samples and 1 rain sample) from different cities across eastern and central China collected in February 2010. The PFCs in samples of 9e precipitation events during more than half a year at 1 site in Tianjin and 6 successive samples during 1 precipitation event were measured to elucidate the change of PFC in precipitation. In addition, PFCs in 3 runoffs at different kinds of sites in Tianjin were compared with those in the corresponding precipitation. The results showed that the particulate matters separated from the precipitation contained undetectable PFCs. The total PFC concentration ranged between 4.7 and 152 ng L(-1) in water phase of the precipitation samples, with perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) being detected at all of the sampling sites and the dominant PFC at most of the sampling sites. Some potential precursors of environmentally concerned PFCs and their degradation intermediates were measured simultaneously, among which 6:2 fluorotelomer unsaturated carboxylic acid (6:2 FTUCA), 8:2 FTUCA, and  × (3, 4, 5, 7):3 acid [F(CF(2))xCH(2)CH(2)COOH] were measured for the first time in Chinese precipitations; however, their concentrations were all lower than the limits of detection except that 6:2 FTUCA and 8:2 FTUCA could be detected in 3 and 8 precipitation samples, respectively. No clear seasonal variation in PFC concentrations in precipitation was observed during half a year; however, a relatively greater average concentration of total PFCs was observed during winter and summer compared with spring. The concentration of individual PFCs showed an obvious descending trend in the successive samples of the precipitation event. PFOA and perfluorononanoic acid in runoffs collected from different sites showed the following similar pattern-gas station > highway > university campus-whereas the other detected PFCs had no concurrent trend.

Modelling seasonal effects of temperature and precipitation on honey bee winter mortality in a temperate climate.

PubMed

Switanek, Matthew; Crailsheim, Karl; Truhetz, Heimo; Brodschneider, Robert

2017-02-01

Insect pollinators are essential to global food production. For this reason, it is alarming that honey bee (Apis mellifera) populations across the world have recently seen increased rates of mortality. These changes in colony mortality are often ascribed to one or more factors including parasites, diseases, pesticides, nutrition, habitat dynamics, weather and/or climate. However, the effect of climate on colony mortality has never been demonstrated. Therefore, in this study, we focus on longer-term weather conditions and/or climate's influence on honey bee winter mortality rates across Austria. Statistical correlations between monthly climate variables and winter mortality rates were investigated. Our results indicate that warmer and drier weather conditions in the preceding year were accompanied by increased winter mortality. We subsequently built a statistical model to predict colony mortality using temperature and precipitation data as predictors. Our model reduces the mean absolute error between predicted and observed colony mortalities by 9% and is statistically significant at the 99.9% confidence level. This is the first study to show clear evidence of a link between climate variability and honey bee winter mortality. Copyright © 2016 British Geological Survey, NERC. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A modern plant-climate research dataset for modelling eastern North American plant taxa.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzales, L. M.; Grimm, E. C.; Williams, J. W.; Nordheim, E. V.

2008-12-01

Continental-scale modern pollen-climate data repositories are a primary data source for paleoclimate reconstructions. However, these repositories can contain artifacts, such as records from different depositional environment and replicate records, that can influence the observed pollen-climate relationships as well as the paleoclimate reconstructions derived from these relationships. In this paper, we address the issues related to these artifacts as we define the methods used to create a research dataset from the North American Modern Pollen Database (Whitmore et al., 2005). Additionally, we define the methods used to select the environmental variables that are best for modeling regional pollen-climate relationships from the research dataset. Because the depositional environment determines the relative strengths of the local and regional pollen signals, combining data from different depositional environments results in pollen abundances that can be influenced by the local pollen signal. Replicate records in pollen-climate datasets can skew pollen-climate relationships by causing an over- or under- representation of pollen abundances in climate space. When these two artifacts are combined, the errors introduced into pollen-climate relationship modeling are compounded. The research dataset we present consists of 2,613 records in eastern North America, of which 70.9% are lacustrine sites. We demonstrate that this new research database improves upon the modeling of regional pollen-climate relationships for eastern North American taxa. The research dataset encompasses the majority of the temperature and mean summer precipitation ranges of the NAMPD's climatic range and 40% of its mean winter precipitation range. NAMPD sites with higher winter precipitation are located along the northwestern coast of North America where a rainshadow effect produces abundant winter precipitation. We present our analysis of the research dataset for use in paleoclimate reconstructions, and recommend that mean winter and summer temperature and precipitation variables be used for pollen-climate relationship modeling.

Exploring the causes of Colorado River streamflow declines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, M.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Udall, B. H.

2016-12-01

As the major river of the Southwestern U.S., the Colorado River (CR) is central to the region's water resources. Over the period 1916-2014, the river's naturalized Apr-Sep flow at Lee's Ferry declined by 18.4%, a number that is closely matched (19.8%) by reconstructions for the same period using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model. However, basin-average annual precipitation over that period declined by only 4.4%. In order to examine the causes of the runoff declines, we performed experiments with the VIC model in which we detrended the model's temperature forcings (about 1.6°C over the 100-year record) for each of 24 sub-basins that make up the basin. We find that decreases in winter precipitation (the season that controls annual runoff) mostly occured in the northeast part of the basin while summer precipitation decreases (which have much less effect on annual runoff) occurred over much of the lower basin. Our model simulations suggest that about 2/3 of observed runoff declines are attributable to decreases in winter precipitation (most importantly, in the upper basin, where most of the basin's runoff is generated). The remaining 1/3 is attributable to warming temperatures. We also examine what appear to be changing characteristics of droughts in the basin. Compared with a prolonged drought in the 1960s, which was characterized by abnormally low precipitation and cool temperatures, temperatures during the ongoing millennial drought have been much warmer, but winter precipitation anomalies have been only slightly negative. During the 2000s drought, the basin-wide runoff anomaly has been about -3.8 km3/yr, with four sub-basins in the northeastern part of the basin accounting for about 2/3 of the annual runoff anomaly.

Trends and variability in streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing in the southern Tianshan Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Yan-Jun; Shen, Yanjun; Fink, Manfred; Kralisch, Sven; Chen, Yaning; Brenning, Alexander

2018-02-01

Streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing of mountain rivers are susceptible to climate change. Trends and variability in streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing in four mountain basins in the southern Tianshan were analyzed in this study. Streamflow trends were detected by Mann-Kendall tests and changes in snowmelt runoff timing were analyzed based on the winter/spring snowmelt runoff center time (WSCT). Pearson's correlation coefficient was further calculated to analyze the relationships between climate variables, streamflow and WSCT. Annual streamflow increased significantly in past decades in the southern Tianshan, especially in spring and winter months. However, the relations between streamflow and temperature/precipitation depend on the different streamflow generation processes. Annual precipitation plays a vital role in controlling recharge in the Toxkon basin, while the Kaidu and Huangshuigou basins are governed by both precipitation and temperature. Seasonally, temperature has a strong effect on streamflow in autumn and winter, while summer streamflow appears more sensitive to changes in precipitation. However, temperature is the dominant factor for streamflow in the glacierized Kunmalik basin at annual and seasonal scales. An uptrend in streamflow begins in the 1990s at both annual and seasonal scales, which is generally consistent with temperature and precipitation fluctuations. Average WSCT dates in the Kaidu and Huangshuigou basins are earlier than in the Toxkon and Kunmalik basins, and shifted towards earlier dates since the mid-1980s in all the basins. It is plausible that WSCT dates are more sensitive to warmer temperature in spring period compared to precipitation, except for the Huangshuigou basin. Taken together, these findings are useful for applications in flood risk regulation, future hydropower projects and integrated water resources management.

Skill and predictability in multimodel ensemble forecasts for Northern Hemisphere regions with dominant winter precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar; Tippett, Michael K.; Almazroui, Mansour; Ismail, Muhammad; Yousef, Ahmed; Kucharski, Fred; Omar, Mohamed; Hussein, Mahmoud; Alkhalaf, Abdulrahman A.

2017-05-01

Northern Hemisphere winter precipitation reforecasts from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast System-4 and six of the models in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble are evaluated, focusing on two regions (Region-A: 20°N-45°N, 10°E-65°E and Region-B: 20°N-55°N, 205°E-255°E) where winter precipitation is a dominant fraction of the annual total and where precipitation from mid-latitude storms is important. Predictability and skill (deterministic and probabilistic) are assessed for 1983-2013 by the multimodel composite (MME) of seven prediction models. The MME climatological mean and variability over the two regions is comparable to observation with some regional differences. The statistically significant decreasing trend observed in Region-B precipitation is captured well by the MME and most of the individual models. El Niño Southern Oscillation is a source of forecast skill, and the correlation coefficient between the Niño3.4 index and precipitation over region A and B is 0.46 and 0.35, statistically significant at the 95 % level. The MME reforecasts weakly reproduce the observed teleconnection. Signal, noise and signal to noise ratio analysis show that the signal variance over two regions is very small as compared to noise variance which tends to reduce the prediction skill. The MME ranked probability skill score is higher than that of individual models, showing the advantage of a multimodel ensemble. Observed Region-A rainfall anomalies are strongly associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, but none of the models reproduce this relation, which may explain the low skill over Region-A. The superior quality of multimodel ensemble compared with individual models is mainly due to larger ensemble size.

Mid-latitude shrub steppe plant communities: Climate change consequences for soil water resources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Palmquist, Kyle A.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Bradford, John B.; Lauenroth, Willliam K.

2016-01-01

In the coming century, climate change is projected to impact precipitation and temperature regimes worldwide, with especially large effects in drylands. We use big sagebrush ecosystems as a model dryland ecosystem to explore the impacts of altered climate on ecohydrology and the implications of those changes for big sagebrush plant communities using output from 10 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). We ask: 1) What is the magnitude of variability in future temperature and precipitation regimes among GCMs and RCPs for big sagebrush ecosystems and 2) How will altered climate and uncertainty in climate forecasts influence key aspects of big sagebrush water balance? We explored these questions across 1980-2010, 2030-2060, and 2070-2100 to determine how changes in water balance might develop through the 21st century. We assessed ecohydrological variables at 898 sagebrush sites across the western US using a process-based soil water model, SOILWAT to model all components of daily water balance using site-specific vegetation parameters and site-specific soil properties for multiple soil layers. Our modeling approach allowed for changes in vegetation based on climate. Temperature increased across all GCMs and RCPs, while changes in precipitation were more variable across GCMs. Winter and spring precipitation was predicted to increase in the future (7% by 2030-2060, 12% by 2070-2100), resulting in slight increases in soil water potential (SWP) in winter. Despite wetter winter soil conditions, SWP decreased in late spring and summer due to increased evapotranspiration (6% by 2030-2060, 10% by 2070-2100) and groundwater recharge (26% and 30% increase by 2030-2060 and 2070-2100). Thus, despite increased precipitation in the cold season, soils may dry out earlier in the year, resulting in potentially longer drier summer conditions. If winter precipitation cannot offset drier summer conditions in the future, we expect big sagebrush regeneration and survival will be negatively impacted, potentially resulting in shifts in the relative abundance of big sagebrush plant functional groups. Our results also highlight the importance of assessing multiple GCMs to understand the range of climate change outcomes on ecohydrology, which was contingent on the GCM chosen.

Landscape patterns of CH4 fluxes in an alpine tundra ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

West, A.E.; Brooks, P.D.; Fisk, M.C.; Smith, Lesley K.; Holland, E.A.; Jaeger, C. H.; Babcock, S.; Lai, R.S.; Schmidt, S.K.

1999-01-01

We measured CH4 fluxes from three major plant communities characteristic of alpine tundra in the Colorado Front Range. Plant communities in this ecosystem are determined by soil moisture regimes induced by winter snowpack distribution. Spatial patterns of CH4 flux during the snow-free season corresponded roughly with these plant communities. In Carex-dominated meadows, which receive the most moisture from snowmelt, net CH4 production occurred. However, CH4 production in one Carex site (seasonal mean = +8.45 mg CH4 m-2 d-1) was significantly larger than in the other Carex sites (seasonal means = -0.06 and +0.05 mg CH4 m-2 d-1). This high CH4 flux may have resulted from shallower snowpack during the winter. In Acomastylis meadows, which have an intermediate moisture regime, CH4 oxidation dominated (seasonal mean = -0.43 mg CH4 m-2 d-1). In the windswept Kobresia meadow plant community, which receive the least amount of moisture from snowmelt, only CH4 oxidation was observed (seasonal mean = -0.77 mg CH4 m-2 d-1). Methane fluxes correlated with a different set of environmental factors within each plant community. In the Carex plant community, CH4 emission was limited by soil temperature. In the Acomastylis meadows, CH4 oxidation rates correlated positively with soil temperature and negatively with soil moisture. In the Kobresia community, CH4 oxidation was stimulated by precipitation. Thus, both snow-free season CH4 fluxes and the controls on those CH4 fluxes were related to the plant communities determined by winter snowpack.

Analysis of aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions based on MODIS data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Feng; Zhang, Jiahua; He, Junliang; Zha, Yong; Li, Qiannan; Li, Yunmei

2017-01-01

Aerosols exert an indirect impact on climate change via its impact on clouds by altering its radiative and optical properties which, in turn, changes the process of precipitation. Over recent years how to study the indirect climate effect of aerosols has become an important research topic. In this study we attempted to understand the complex mutual interactions among aerosols, clouds and precipitation through analysis of the spatial correlation between aerosol optical depth (AOD), cloud effective radius (CER) and precipitation during 2000-2012 in central-eastern China that has one of the highest concentrations of aerosols globally. With the assistance of moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived aerosol and cloud product data, this analysis focuses on regional differentiation and seasonal variation of the correlation in which in situ observed precipitation was incorporated. On the basis of the achieved results, we proposed four patterns depicting the mutual interactions between aerosols, clouds and precipitation. They characterize the indirect effects of aerosols on the regional scale. These effects can be summarized as complex seasonal variations and north-south regional differentiation over the study area. The relationship between AOD and CER is predominated mostly by the first indirect effect (the negative correlation between AOD and CER) in the north of the study area in the winter and spring seasons, and over the entire study area in the summer season. The relationship between CER and precipitation is dominated chiefly by the second indirect effect (the positive correlation between CER and precipitation) in the northern area in summer and over the entire study area in autumn. It must be noted that aerosols are not the factor affecting clouds and rainfall singularly. It is the joint effect of aerosols with other factors such as atmospheric dynamics that governs the variation in clouds and rainfall.

Bridging among disciplines by synthesizing soil and plant processes (advances in agricultural systems)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Location specific consequences of GCM projected climate change on over-wintering crops like winter wheat can vary geographically (latitude and longitude) depending on the severity and duration of the cold period and other factors like the altitude, precipitation distribution, and photoperiod. The US...

A Course in Winter Ecology at a Nature Center for Middle School Children and Their Parents.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gennaro, Eugene; And Others

1983-01-01

Provides a brief synopsis of activities offered during a winter ecology course developed for middle school students and their parents. Activities included snowfield studies, building snow shelters, acid precipitation testing, animal tracking, and bird banding. Parent/child evaluation indicated course was successful. (JN)

Snow depth manipulation experiments in a dry and a moist tundra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, M. J.; Czimczik, C. I.; Jung, J. Y.; Kim, M.; Lee, Y. K.; Nam, S.; Wagner, I.

2017-12-01

As a result of global warming, precipitation in the Arctic is expected to increase by 25-50% by the end of this century, mostly in the form of snow. However, precipitation patterns vary considerable in space and time, and future precipitation patterns are highly uncertain at local and regional scales. The amount of snowfall (or snow depth) influences a number of ecosystem properties in Arctic ecosystems, such as soil temperature over winter and soil moisture in the following growing season. These modifications then affect rates of carbon-related soil processes and photosynthesis, thus CO2 exchange rates between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. In this study, we investigate the effects of snow depth on the magnitude, sources and temporal dynamics of CO2 fluxes. We installed snow fences in a dry dwarf-shrub (Cambridge Bay, Canada; 69° N, 105° W) and a moist low-shrub (Council, Alaska, USA; 64° N, 165° W) tundra in summer 2017, and established control, and increased and reduced snow depth plots at each snow fence. Summertime CO2 flux rates (net ecosystem exchange, ecosystem respiration, gross primary production) and the fractions of autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration to ecosystem respiration were measured using manual chambers and radiocarbon signatures. Wintertime CO2 flux rates will be measured using soda lime adsorption technique and forced diffusion chambers. Soil temperature and moisture at multiple depths, as well as changes in soil properties and microbial communities will be also observed, to research whether these changes affect CO2 flux rates or patterns. Our study will elucidate how future snow depth and its impact on soil physical and biogeochemical properties influence the magnitude and sources of tundra-atmosphere CO2 exchange in the rapidly warming Arctic.

The role of precipitation in aerosol-induced changes in northern hemisphere wintertime stationary waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewinschal, A.; Ekman, A. M. L.; Körnich, H.

2012-04-01

Aerosol particles have a considerable impact on the energy budget of the atmosphere due to their ability to scatter and absorb incoming solar radiation. Persistent particle emissions in certain regions of the world have lead to quasi-permanent aerosol forcing patterns. This spatially varying forcing pattern has the potential to modify temperature gradients that in turn alter pressure gradients and the atmospheric circulation. This study focuses on the effect of aerosol direct radiative forcing on northern hemisphere wintertime stationary waves. A global general circulation model based on the ECMWF operational forecast model is applied (EC-Earth). Aerosols are prescribed as monthly mean mixing ratios of sulphate, black carbon, organic carbon, dust and sea salt. Only the direct aerosol effect is considered. The climatic change is defined as the difference between model simulations using present-day and pre-industrial concentrations of aerosol particles. Data from 40-year long simulations using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model system are used. In EC-Earth, the high aerosol loading over South Asia leads to a surface cooling, which appears to enhance the South Asian winter monsoon and weaken the Indian Ocean Walker circulation. The anomalous Walker circulation leads to changes in tropical convective precipitation and consequent changes in latent heat release which effectively acts to generate planetary scale waves propagating into the extra-tropics. Using a steady-state linear model we verify that the aerosol-induced anomalous convective precipitation is a crucial link between the wave changes and the direct aerosol radiative forcing.

Temperature and precipitation in the context of the annual cycle over Asia: Model evaluation and future change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Suyeon; Ha, Kyung-Ja

2017-05-01

Since the early or late arrival of monsoon rainfall can be devastating to agriculture and economy, the prediction of the onset of monsoon is a very important issue. The Asian monsoon is characterized by a strong annual cycle with rainy summer and dry winter. Nevertheless, most of monsoon studies have focused on the seasonal-mean of temperature and precipitation. The present study aims to evaluate a total of 27 coupled models that participated in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for projection of the time evolution and the intensity of Asian monsoon on the basis of the annual cycle of temperature and precipitation. And future changes of onset, retreat, and intensity of monsoon are analyzed. Four models for good seasonal-mean (GSM) and good harmonic (GH) groups, respectively, are selected. GSM is based on the seasonal-mean of temperature and precipitation in summer and winter, and GH is based on the annual cycle of temperature and precipitation which represents a characteristic of the monsoon. To compare how well the time evolution of the monsoon is simulated in each group, the onset, retreat, and duration of Asian monsoon are examined. The highest pattern correlation coefficient (PCC) of onset, retreat, and duration between the reanalysis data and model outputs demonstrates that GH models' MME predicts time evolution of monsoon most precisely, with PCC values of 0.80, 0.52, and 0.63, respectively. To predict future changes of the monsoon, the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP 4.5) experiments for the period of 2073-2099 are compared with historical simulations for the period of 1979-2005 from CMIP5 using GH models' MME. The Asian monsoon domain is expanded by 22.6% in the future projection. The onset date in the future is advanced over most parts of Asian monsoon region. The duration of summer Asian monsoon in the future projection will be lengthened by up to 2 pentads over the Asian monsoon region, as a result of advanced onset. The Asian monsoon intensity becomes stronger with the passage of time. This study has important implication for assessment of CMIP5 models in terms of the prediction of time evolution and intensity of Asian monsoon based on the annual cycle of temperature and precipitation.

Riveting Two-Dimensional Materials: Exploring Strain Physics in Atomically Thin Crystals with Microelectromechanical Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christopher, Jason W.

This thesis includes four studies that explore and compare the impacts of four contributing factors resulting in regional climate change on the North Slope of Alaska based on a numerical simulation approach. These four contributing factors include global warming due to changes in radiative forcing, sea ice decline, earlier Arctic lake ice-off, and atmospheric circulation change over the Arctic. A set of dynamically downscaled regional climate products has been developed for the North Slope of Alaska over the period from 1950 up to 2100. A fine grid spacing (10 km) is employed to develop products that resolve detailed mesoscale features in the temperature and precipitation fields on the North Slope of Alaska. Processes resolved include the effects of topography on regional climate and extreme precipitation events. The Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario projects lower rates of precipitation and temperature increase than RCP8.5 compared to the historical product. The increases of precipitation and temperature trends in the RCP8.5 projection are higher in fall and winter compared to the historical product and the RCP4.5 projection. The impacts of sea ice decline are addressed by conducting sensitivity experiments employing both an atmospheric model and a permafrost model. The sea ice decline impacts are most pronounced in late fall and early winter. The near surface atmospheric warming in late spring and early summer due to sea ice decline are projected to be stronger in the 21st century. Such a warming effect also reduces the total cloud cover on the North Slope of Alaska in summer by destabilizing the atmospheric boundary layer. The sea ice decline warms the atmosphere and the permafrost on the North Slope of Alaska less strongly than the global warming does, while it primarily results in higher seasonal variability of the positive temperature trend that is bigger in late fall and early winter than in other seasons. The ongoing and projected earlier melt of the Arctic lake ice also contributes to regional climate change on the Northern coast of Alaska, though only on a local and seasonal scale. Heat and moisture released from the opened lake surface primarily propagate downwind of the lakes. The impacts of the earlier lake ice-off on both the atmosphere and the permafrost underneath are comparable to those of the sea ice decline in late spring and early summer, while they are roughly six times weaker than those of sea ice decline in late fall and early winter. The permafrost warming resulted from the earlier lake ice-off is speculated to be stronger with more snowfall expected in the 21st century, while the overall atmospheric warming of global origin is speculated to continue growing. Two major Arctic summer-time climatic variability patterns, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Arctic Dipole (AD), are evaluated in 12 global climate models in Coupled Model Intercomparison Program Phase 5 (CMIP5). A combined metric ranking approach ranks the models by the Pattern Correlation Coefficients (PCCs) and explained variances calculated from the model-produced summer AO and AD over the historical period. Higher-ranked models more consistently project a positive trend of the summer AO index and a negative trend of summer AD index in their RCP8.5 projections. Such long-term trends of large-scale climate patterns will inhibit the increase in air temperature while favoring the increase in precipitation on the North Slope of Alaska. In summary, this thesis bridges the gaps by quantifying the relative importance of multiple contributing factors to the regional climate change on the North Slope of Alaska. Global warming is the leading contributing factor, while other factors primarily contribute to the spatial and temporal asymmetries of the regional climate change. The results of this thesis lead to a better understanding of the physical mechanisms behind the climatic impacts to the hydrological and ecological changes of the North Slope of Alaska that have been become more severe and more frequent. They, together with the developed downscaling data products, serve as the climatic background information in such fields of study.

[Dynamics of soil water reservoir of wheat field in rain-fed area of the Loess Tableland, China].

PubMed

Li, Peng Zhan; Wang, Li; Wang, Di

2017-11-01

Soil reservoir is the basis of stable grain production and sustainable development in dry farming area. Based on the long-term field experiment, this paper investigated the changes of soil moisture in wheat field located in the rain-fed Changwu Tableland, and analyzed the interannual and annual variation characteristics and dynamics trends of soil reservoir from 2012 to 2015. The results showed that the vertical distribution curves of average soil water content were double peaks and double valleys: first peak and valley occurred in the 10-20 and 50 cm soil layer, respectively, while for the second peak and valley, the corresponding soil layer was the 100 and 280 cm soil layer. Soil reservoir did not coincide with precipitation for all yearly precipitation patterns but lagged behind. Yearly precipitation patterns had a great influence on the interannual and annual dynamic changes of soil reservoir. Compared with rainy year, the depth of soil moisture consumption decreased and supplementary effect of precipitation on soil moisture became obvious under effects of drought year and normal year. In rainy year, soil reservoir had a large surplus (84.2 mm), water balance was compensated; in normal year, it had a slight surplus (9.5 mm), water balance was compensated; while in drought year, it was slightly deficient (1.5 mm), water balance was negatively compensated. The dynamics of soil water in winter wheat field in the rain-fed Changwu Tableland could be divided into four periods: seedling period, slow consumption period, large consumption period, and harvest period, the order of evapotranspiration was large consumption period> seedling period> harvest period> slow consumption period.

Evaluating the cave carbonate chemical signal as a proxy for rain patterns in Mallorca Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cacho, Isabel; Cisneros, Mercé; Torner, Judit; Català, Albert; Moreno, Ana; Stoll, Heather; Iglesias, Miguel; Bladé, Ileana; Fornos, Joan

2017-04-01

Mallorca's climate is marked by a strong seasonal cycle in both temperatures and precipitations which is likely to be recorded in the carbonate precipitates formed in its extended karst systems. Here we present isotopes and trace elements measured in dripwaters collected at weakly and/or seasonal bases since spring 2013 in three caves from Mallorca that represent the eastern and S-eastern sector of the island. This information is complemented with isotopic composition of rain events in the same region, other cave environmental parameters and chemistry of seasonal farmed carbonates in the same caves. Drip water results are very consistent between the different studied caves and indicate an important attenuation of the rainfall isotopic signal in the epikarst and only extreme climate conditions such as the severe dry conditions in summer 2015. Farmed carbonates present a clear seasonal cycle with low values, in both carbon and oxygen isotopes, in summer and autumn and high values in winter and spring. This cyclicity can not be attributed to amount effect or rain composition and we propose a close relation to cave environmental conditions. High CO2 concentrations in summer and autumn would avoid degasification reducing the PCP process and resulting in more negative isotopic relationships in both oxygen and carbon isotopes. Coherently, this CO2 cycles are in phase with those of temperature since both reflect ventilation rates in the cave. Nevertheless, ultra-high resolution profiles of Mg/Ca ratios measured by laser ablation on last century carbonate precipitates in the same caves, reveal a inter-annual variability with a persistent cyclicity which show coherent patterns with the instrumental rain records from Mallorca. This comparison reveals the potential of the Mallorca carbonates to reveal the long-term precipitation evolution of the island.

Data Assimilation of AIRS Water Vapor Profiles: Impact on Precipitation Forecasts for Atmospheric River Cases Affecting the Western of the United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blankenship, Clay; Zavodsky, Bradley; Jedlovec, Gary; Wick, Gary; Neiman, Paul

2013-01-01

Atmospheric rivers are transient, narrow regions in the atmosphere responsible for the transport of large amounts of water vapor. These phenomena can have a large impact on precipitation. In particular, they can be responsible for intense rain events on the western coast of North America during the winter season. This paper focuses on attempts to improve forecasts of heavy precipitation events in the Western US due to atmospheric rivers. Profiles of water vapor derived from from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) observations are combined with GFS forecasts by a three-dimensional variational data assimilation in the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI). Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) forecasts initialized from the combined field are compared to forecasts initialized from the GFS forecast only for 3 test cases in the winter of 2011. Results will be presented showing the impact of the AIRS profile data on water vapor and temperature fields, and on the resultant precipitation forecasts.

Trends in snowfall versus rainfall in the western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knowles, N.; Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.

2006-01-01

The water resources of the western United States depend heavily on snowpack to store part of the wintertime precipitation into the drier summer months. A well-documented shift toward earlier runoff in recent decades has been attributed to 1) more precipitation falling as rain instead of snow and 2) earlier snowmelt. The present study addresses the former, documenting a regional trend toward smaller ratios of winter-total snowfall water equivalent (SFE) to winter-total precipitation (P) during the period 1949-2004. The trends toward reduce d SFE are a response to warming across the region, with the most significant reductions occurring where winter wet-day minimum temperatures, averaged over the study period, were warmer than -5??C. Most SFE reductions were associated with winter wet-day temperature increases between 0?? and +3??C over the study period. Warmings larger than this occurred mainly at sites where the mean temperatures were cool enough that the precipitation form was less susceptible to warming trends. The trends toward reduced SFE/P ratios w ere most pronounced in March regionwide and in January near the West Coast, corresponding, to widespread warming in these months. While mean temperatures in March were sufficiently high to allow the warming, trend to produce SFE/P declines across the study region, mean January temperatures were cooler. with the result that January SFE/P impacts were restricted to the lower elevations near the West Coast. Extending the analysis back to 1920 sho ws that although the trends presented here may be partially attributable to interdecadal climate variability associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation. they also appear to result from still longer-term climate shifts.

Evidence of long-term NAO influence on East-Central Europe winter precipitation from a guano-derived δ15N record.

PubMed

Cleary, Daniel M; Wynn, Jonathan G; Ionita, Monica; Forray, Ferenc L; Onac, Bogdan P

2017-10-26

Currently there is a scarcity of paleo-records related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), particularly in East-Central Europe (ECE). Here we report δ 15 N analysis of guano from a cave in NW Romania with the intent of reconstructing past variation in ECE hydroclimate and examine NAO impacts on winter precipitation. We argue that the δ 15 N values of guano indicate that the nitrogen cycle is hydrologically controlled and the δ 15 N values likely reflect winter precipitation related to nitrogen mineralization prior to the growing season. Drier conditions indicated by δ 15 N values at AD 1848-1852 and AD 1880-1930 correspond to the positive phase of the NAO. The increased frequency of negative phases of the NAO between AD 1940-1975 is contemporaneous with higher δ 15 N values (wetter conditions). A 4‰ decrease in δ 15 N values at the end of the 1970's corresponds to a strong reduction in precipitation associated with a shift from negative to positive phase of the NAO. Using the relationship between NAO index and δ 15 N values in guano for the instrumental period, we reconstructed NAO-like phases back to AD 1650. Our results advocate that δ 15 N values of guano offer a proxy of the NAO conditions in the more distant past, helping assess its predictability.

Observed changes in extreme precipitation in Poland: 1991-2015 versus 1961-1990

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pińskwar, Iwona; Choryński, Adam; Graczyk, Dariusz; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.

2018-01-01

Several episodes of extreme precipitation excess and extreme precipitation deficit, with considerable economic and social impacts, have occurred in Europe and in Poland in the last decades. However, the changes of related indices exhibit complex variability. This paper analyses changes in indices related to observed abundance and deficit of precipitated water in Poland. Among studied indices are maximum seasonal 24-h precipitation for the winter half-year (Oct.-March) and the summer half-year (Apr.-Sept.), maximum 5-day precipitation, maximum monthly precipitation and number of days with intense or very intense precipitation (respectively, in excess of 10 mm or 20 mm per day). Also, the warm-seasonal maximum number of consecutive dry days (longest period with daily precipitation below 1 mm) was examined. Analysis of precipitation extremes showed that daily maximum precipitation for the summer half-year increased for many stations, and increases during the summer half-year are more numerous than those in the winter half-year. Also, analysis of 5-day and monthly precipitation sums show increases for many stations. Number of days with intense precipitation increases especially in the north-western part of Poland. The number of consecutive dry days is getting higher for many stations in the summer half-year. Comparison of these two periods: colder 1961-1990 and warmer 1991-2015, revealed that during last 25 years most of statistical indices, such as 25th and 75th percentiles, median, mean and maximum are higher. However, many changes discussed in this paper are weak and statistically insignificant. The findings reported in this paper challenge results based on earlier data that do not include 2007-2015.

Factors Contributing to Extremely Wet Winters in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jong, B. T.; Ting, M.; Seager, R.

2015-12-01

As California continues to battle the severe drought conditions, it becomes increasingly important to understand the atmospheric and oceanic conditions that may possible break this ongoing drought. Is a strong El Niño, such as the 2015/16 event, enough to break the drought? We examine in this study the possible factors that lead to extremely wet winters (the wettest 15%) in both Northern and Southern CA. The relationships between CA winter precipitation and sea surface temperature conditions in the Pacific, as well as atmospheric circulation are determined by using observational and reanalysis data from 1901 to 2010. One of the key features of the atmospheric circulation is the location of the low pressure anomaly, whether caused by El Niño or other factors. If the anomaly locates right off the US west coast, CA tends to be wet, and vice versa. Furthermore, the duration of the circulation anomaly seems to be crucial. During wet El Niño winters, the peak of the circulation anomaly is in the late winter, whereas, during non-wet El Niño winters, the peak of the anomaly is in the early winter. Thus, an El Niño that can last to late winter is more likely to cause an extremely wet winter in the state. The intensity of El Niño is another critical factor. In the wettest tercile late winter, a strong El Niño can bring about 200% of climatological precipitation to CA, while a weak El Niño can bring only less than 150% of climatology. In combination, only a strong El Niño that can last to late winter may make extremely wet winters very likely in CA. To explore the other factors, composites of circulation anomaly during wet & non-El Niño winters were also analyzed. The results show that a zonally propagating wave train, originating from western North Pacific, contributes to low pressure center and wet winter conditions in the state. Thus, coastal low pressure anomaly is a consistent feature for an extremely wet winters in California, but the origin of forcing can come from both tropics and mid-latitude.

Variability of winter and summer surface ozone in Mexico City on the intraseasonal timescale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barrett, Bradford S.; Raga, Graciela B.

2016-12-01

Surface ozone concentrations in Mexico City frequently exceed the Mexican standard and have proven difficult to forecast due to changes in meteorological conditions at its tropical location. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is largely responsible for intraseasonal variability in the tropics. Circulation patterns in the lower and upper troposphere and precipitation are associated with the oscillation as it progresses eastward around the planet. It is typically described by phases (labeled 1 through 8), which correspond to the broad longitudinal location of the active component of the oscillation with enhanced precipitation. In this study we evaluate the intraseasonal variability of winter and summer surface ozone concentrations in Mexico City, which was investigated over the period 1986-2014 to determine if there is a modulation by the MJO that would aid in the forecast of high-pollution episodes. Over 1 000 000 hourly observations of surface ozone from five stations around the metropolitan area were standardized and then binned by active phase of the MJO, with phase determined using the real-time multivariate MJO index. Highest winter ozone concentrations were found in Mexico City on days when the MJO was active and in phase 2 (over the Indian Ocean), and highest summer ozone concentrations were found on days when the MJO was active and in phase 6 (over the western Pacific Ocean). Lowest winter ozone concentrations were found during active MJO phase 8 (over the eastern Pacific Ocean), and lowest summer ozone concentrations were found during active MJO phase 1 (over the Atlantic Ocean). Anomalies of reanalysis-based cloud cover and UV-B radiation supported the observed variability in surface ozone in both summer and winter: MJO phases with highest ozone concentration had largest positive UV-B radiation anomalies and lowest cloud-cover fraction, while phases with lowest ozone concentration had largest negative UV-B radiation anomalies and highest cloud-cover fraction. Furthermore, geopotential height anomalies at 250 hPa favoring reduced cloudiness, and thus elevated surface ozone, were found in both seasons during MJO phases with above-normal ozone concentrations. Similar height anomalies at 250 hPa favoring enhanced cloudiness, and thus reduced surface ozone, were found in both seasons during MJO phases with below-normal ozone concentrations. These anomalies confirm a physical pathway for MJO modulation of surface ozone via modulation of the upper troposphere.

Atmospheric conditions and weather regimes associated with extreme winter dry spells over the Mediterranean basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raymond, Florian; Ullmann, Albin; Camberlin, Pierre; Oueslati, Boutheina; Drobinski, Philippe

2018-06-01

Very long dry spell events occurring during winter are natural hazards to which the Mediterranean region is extremely vulnerable, because they can lead numerous impacts for environment and society. Four dry spell patterns have been identified in a previous work. Identifying the main associated atmospheric conditions controlling the dry spell patterns is key to better understand their dynamics and their evolution in a changing climate. Except for the Levant region, the dry spells are generally associated with anticyclonic blocking conditions located about 1000 km to the Northwest of the affected area. These anticyclonic conditions are favourable to dry spell occurrence as they are associated with subsidence of cold and dry air coming from boreal latitudes which bring low amount of water vapour and non saturated air masses, leading to clear sky and absence of precipitation. These extreme dry spells are also partly related to the classical four Euro-Atlantic weather regimes are: the two phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Scandinavian "blocking" or "East-Atlantic", and the "Atlantic ridge". Only the The "East-Atlantic", "Atlantic ridge" and the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation are frequently associated with extremes dry spells over the Mediterranean basin but they do not impact the four dry spell patterns equally. Finally long sequences of those weather regimes are more favourable to extreme dry spells than short sequences. These long sequences are associated with the favourable prolonged and reinforced anticyclonic conditions

Evidence of growth reduction in ozone-injured Jeffrey pine (Pinus jeffreyi Grev. and Balf. ) in Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Peterson, D.L.; Arbaugh, M.J.; Wakefield, V.A.

1987-08-01

Evidence is presented for a reduction in radial growth of Jeffrey pine in the mixed conifer forest of Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks, California. Mean annual radial increment of trees with symptoms of ozone injury was 11% less than trees at sites without ozone injury. Larger diameter trees (>40 cm) and older trees (>100 yr) had greater decreases in growth than smaller and younger trees. Differences in radial growth patterns of injured and uninjured trees were prominent after 1965. Winter precipitation accounted for a large proportion of the variance in growth of all trees, although ozone-stressed trees were moremore » sensitive to interannual variation in precipitation and temperature during recent years. These results corroborates surveys in visible ozone injury to foliage and are the first evidence of forest growth reduction associated with ozone injury in North America outside the Los Angeles basin.« less

Re-emerging ocean temperature anomalies in late-2010 associated with a repeat negative NAO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taws, Sarah L.; Marsh, Robert; Wells, Neil C.; Hirschi, Joël

2011-10-01

Northern Europe was influenced by consecutive episodes of extreme winter weather at the start and end of the 2010 calendar year. A tripole pattern in North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), associated with an exceptionally negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), characterized both winter periods. This pattern was largely absent at the surface during the 2010 summer season; however equivalent sub-surface temperature anomalies were preserved within the seasonal thermocline throughout the year. Here, we present evidence for the re-emergence of late-winter 2009/10 SSTAs during the following early winter season of 2010/11. The observed re-emergence contributes toward the winter-to-winter persistence of the anomalous tripole pattern. Considering the active influence of the oceans upon leading modes of atmospheric circulation over seasonal timescales, associated with the memory of large-scale sea surface temperature anomaly patterns, the re-emergence of remnant temperature anomalies may have also contributed toward the persistence of a negative winter NAO, and the recurrence of extreme wintry conditions over the initial 2010/11 winter season.

[Monitoring and Analysis of Stable Isotopes of the Near Surface Water Vapor in Changsha].

PubMed

Xie, Yu-long; Zhang, Xin-ping; Yao, Tian-ci; Huang, Huang

2016-02-15

Based on the monitored atmospheric water vapor stable isotopes and observed meteorological elements at Changsha during the period from November 12, 2014 to April 13, 2015, the variations of water vapor stable isotopes and the relationships between isotope ratios and temperature, absolute humidity, precipitation amount were analyzed in this paper. The results indicated that: (1) Seasonal variations of delta18O and 82H in atmospheric water vapor at Changsha were remarkable, with high values in winter. delta18O and delta2H in atmospheric water vapor were positively correlated with absolute humidity in winter. There were some fluctuations of the delta18O and delta2H in atmospheric water vapor, especially when the precipitation events occurred. Precipitation events had a significant effect on the variations of delta18O and delta2H in atmospheric water vapor, and low values were often accompanied with precipitation events; (2) Diurnal Variations of delta18O and delta2H in atmospheric water vapor had a close correlation with the atmospheric water vapor content, whereas the absolute humidity was mainly controlled by the strength of the local evapotranspiration and atmospheric turbulence. The "precipitation amount effect" was observed during the process of a single precipitation event; (3) Values of delta18O and delta2H in atmospheric water vapor were always lower than those of precipitation in Changsha, but he variation trends were completely consistent, the average difference values were 8.6% per hundred and 66.82% per hundred, respectively; (4) The meteoric vapor line (MVL) in cold months was delta2H =7.18 delta18O + 10.58, the slope and intercept of MVL were always lower than those of MWL, and the slope and intercept of MVL in spring were significantly higher than those of winter.

Estimated winter wheat yield from crop growth predicted by LANDSAT

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kanemasu, E. T.

1977-01-01

An evapotranspiration and growth model for winter wheat is reported. The inputs are daily solar radiation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation/irrigation and leaf area index. The meteorological data were obtained from National Weather Service while LAI was obtained from LANDSAT multispectral scanner. The output provides daily estimates of potential evapotranspiration, transpiration, evaporation, soil moisture (50 cm depth), percentage depletion, net photosynthesis and dry matter production. Winter wheat yields are correlated with transpiration and dry matter accumulation.

Nutrient losses from Fall and Winter-applied manure: Effects of timing and soil temperature

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil temperature is a major environmental factor that affects both the infiltration of meltwater and precipitation, and nutrient cycling. The objectives of this study were to determine nutrient losses in runoff and leachate from fall and winter-applied dairy manure based on the soil temperature at t...

Nutrient losses from fall- and winter-applied manure: effects of timing and soil temperature

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil temperature is a major environmental factor that affects meltwater and precipitation infiltration and nutrient cycling. The objective of this study was to determine nutrient losses in runoff and leachate from fall- and winter-applied dairy manure as affected by soil temperature at the time of a...

Subsurface thermal and hydrological changes between forest and clear-cut sites in the Oregon Cascades

EPA Science Inventory

The Cascades of the US Pacific Northwest are a climatically sensitive area. Projections of continued winter warming in this area are expected to induce a switch from a snow-dominated to a rain-dominated winter precipitation regime with a likely impact on subsurface thermal and h...

Evapotranspiration in winter wheat under different grazing and tillage practices in the southern Great Plains

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Precipitation in the Southern Great Plains (SGP) is highly variable both spatially and temporally with recurring periods of severe drought. Winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) – summer fallow system with conventional tillage is the principal dryland cropping system in this region for both grazing an...

Climate impact of idealized winter polar mesospheric and stratospheric ozone losses as caused by energetic particle precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meraner, Katharina; Schmidt, Hauke

2018-01-01

Energetic particles enter the polar atmosphere and enhance the production of nitrogen oxides and hydrogen oxides in the winter stratosphere and mesosphere. Both components are powerful ozone destroyers. Recently, it has been inferred from observations that the direct effect of energetic particle precipitation (EPP) causes significant long-term mesospheric ozone variability. Satellites observe a decrease in mesospheric ozone up to 34 % between EPP maximum and EPP minimum. Stratospheric ozone decreases due to the indirect effect of EPP by about 10-15 % observed by satellite instruments. Here, we analyze the climate impact of winter boreal idealized polar mesospheric and polar stratospheric ozone losses as caused by EPP in the coupled Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). Using radiative transfer modeling, we find that the radiative forcing of mesospheric ozone loss during polar night is small. Hence, climate effects of mesospheric ozone loss due to energetic particles seem unlikely. Stratospheric ozone loss due to energetic particles warms the winter polar stratosphere and subsequently weakens the polar vortex. However, those changes are small, and few statistically significant changes in surface climate are found.

The 2015 drought in Washington State: a harbinger of things to come?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marlier, Miriam E.; Xiao, Mu; Engel, Ruth; Livneh, Ben; Abatzoglou, John T.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.

2017-11-01

Washington State experienced widespread drought in 2015 and the largest burned area in the observational record, attributable in part to exceptionally low winter snow accumulation and high summer temperatures. We examine 2015 drought severity in the Cascade and Olympic mountains relative to the historical climatology (1950-present) and future climate projections (mid-21st century) for a mid-range global greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Although winter precipitation was near normal, the regional winter temperature anomaly was +2.1 °C (+2.0σ) in 2015, consistent with projections of a +2.3 °C (+2.2σ) temperature change and near normal precipitation in the future, relative to the climatology. April 1 snow water equivalent in 2015, -325 mm (-1.5σ), and the future, -252 mm (-1.1σ), were substantially lower than the climatology. Wildfire potential, as indicated by dead fuel moisture content, was higher in 2015 than mid-21st century mean projections. In contrast to most historical droughts, which have been driven by precipitation deficits, our results suggest that 2015 is a useful analog of typical conditions in the Pacific Northwest by the mid-21st century.

Precipitation variability in the winter rainfall zone of South Africa during the last 1400 yr linked to the austral westerlies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stager, J. C.; Mayewski, P. A.; White, J.; Chase, B. M.; Neumann, F. H.; Meadows, M. E.; King, C. D.; Dixon, D. A.

2011-12-01

The austral westerlies strongly influence precipitation and ocean circulation in the southern temperate zone, with important consequences for cultures and ecosystems. Global climate models anticipate poleward contraction of the austral westerlies with future warming, but the available paleoclimate records that might test these models have been largely limited to South America, are not fully consistent with each other, and may be complicated by influences from other climatic factors. Here we present the first fine-interval diatom and sedimentological records from the winter rainfall region of South Africa, representing precipitation during the last 1400 yr. Inferred rainfall increased ~1400-1200 cal yr BP and most notably during the Little Ice Age with pulses centered on ~600, 530, 470, 330, 200, and 90 cal yr BP. Synchronous fluctuations in Antarctic ice core chemistry strongly suggest that these variations are linked to changes in the westerlies. Partial inconsistencies among South African and South American records warn against the simplistic application of local-scale histories to the Southern Hemisphere as a whole. Nonetheless, these findings in general do support model projections of increasing aridity in austral winter rainfall zones with future warming.

Negative impacts of climate change on cereal yields: statistical evidence from France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gammans, Matthew; Mérel, Pierre; Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel

2017-05-01

In several world regions, climate change is predicted to negatively affect crop productivity. The recent statistical yield literature emphasizes the importance of flexibly accounting for the distribution of growing-season temperature to better represent the effects of warming on crop yields. We estimate a flexible statistical yield model using a long panel from France to investigate the impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on wheat and barley yields. Winter varieties appear sensitive to extreme cold after planting. All yields respond negatively to an increase in spring-summer temperatures and are a decreasing function of precipitation about historical precipitation levels. Crop yields are predicted to be negatively affected by climate change under a wide range of climate models and emissions scenarios. Under warming scenario RCP8.5 and holding growing areas and technology constant, our model ensemble predicts a 21.0% decline in winter wheat yield, a 17.3% decline in winter barley yield, and a 33.6% decline in spring barley yield by the end of the century. Uncertainty from climate projections dominates uncertainty from the statistical model. Finally, our model predicts that continuing technology trends would counterbalance most of the effects of climate change.

Increased aridity at the end of the Eemian in the Levant and relationships to global climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiro, Y.; Goldstein, S. L.; Kushnir, Y.; Lazar, B.; Stein, M.

2016-12-01

Thick layers of halite deposited in the Dead Sea at the end of MIS 5e, revealed by the ICDP Dead Sea Deep Drilling Project cores, indicate extremely arid conditions prevailing in the Levant . Average precipitation during this interval was 50% of the present, and there were strong fluctuations between wetter periods similar to the present-day lasting on the order of millennia, and drought periods with precipitation as low as 20% of the present-day lasting on the order of centuries. At the same time, there were infrequent but intense rainfall events in the southern Levant and flash floods. U-series ages indicate that the hyper-arid conditions prevailed between 120-110 ka, following the `Eemian' Northern Hemisphere insolation peak interval of MIS 5e, and coinciding with decreased high latitude temperatures and atmospheric CO2 (Jouzel et al. 2007, Bereiter et al. 2015). Such conditions are consistent with pollen records from southern Europe indicating that region was warm until 110 ka (Brauer et al., 2007). The hyper-arid interval in the Levant followed a relatively wet period during the Eemian, coinciding with an intense African monsoon and major sapropel deposition in the eastern Mediterranean. Climate models indicate increasing aridity in the Levant between 125 ka and 120 ka; while at 125 ka there was significant summer and winter precipitation, 120 ka was drier than the present. The Levant in the present-day has a Mediterranean climate with dry summers and wet winters, where warmer winters coincide with lower precipitation. While the time interval of 120 ka to 110 ka, following the Eemian, was characterized by decreasing summer insolation, winter insolation increased. This increase in winter insolation may have caused a decrease in the sea-land temperature gradient that resulted in decreased precipitation on land. Bereiter, B. et al., 2015, Antarctic Ice Cores Revised 800KYr CO2 Data Brauer, A et al., 2007, Evidence for last interglacial chronology and environmental change from Southern Europe.: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, v. 104, no. 2, p. 450-455 Jouzel, J. et al., 2007, Orbital and millennial Antarctic climate variability over the past 800,000 years.: Science (New York, N.Y.), v. 317, no. 5839, p. 793-6

Seasonal fluxes of major ions to a high altitude cold alpine glacier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maupetit, F.; Wagenbach, D.; Weddeling, P.; Delmas, R. J.

A 13 m fimcore was recovered in April 1991 at Col du Dome (4250 m.a.s.l.), located below the Mont Blanc summit (Northern French Alps). The core spans a complete sequence of 3.5 years of high alpine precipitation, as indicated by the stratigraphic and the isotopic profiles. Subsamples were analysed for Na +, NH 4+, K +, Mg 2+, Ca 2+, Cl -, NO 3- and SO 42- using ion chromatography, and for H + or HCO 3- using a titration technique. In absence of alkaline Saharan dust, the snow is slightly acid (2-20 μ Eq l-1. All analysed ions show a sharply pronounced seasonal pattern, with concentrations, extremely low in winter, increasing in spring and reaching a maximum in summer. This picture supports the idea that in winter the high alpine sites are generally not affected by polluted air masses from lower altitudes, whereas during spring and summer, vertical convective transport significantly affects the highest sites located well above 4000 m a.s.l. The lowest impurity levels of alpine winter snow are comparable with central Greenland values, suggesting that at this time, and just in opposite to what occurs in the Arctic, the highest alpine regions are representative of the continental free troposphere. Annual and seasonal deposition fluxes are calculated. In order to assess the spatial representativeness of these results, a comparison is made with similar records obtained from a 10m firncore recovered in summer 1991, at the low accumulation site Colle Gnifetti (4450 m.a.s.l.) located in the Swiss Alps, 80 km east of Col du Dôme. An excellent agreement is found between the overall mean isotopic and chemical composition of the two firncores, suggesting that, since clean winter snow is well preserved at Col du Dome, this site is presumably more influenced by precipitation during summer. Finally, the attractive perspectives for deep drilling in the Mont Blanc area are assessed, and the merits of making use of both sites, where comparable and complementary information can be obtained, are outlined.

Monitoring and modeling conditions for regional shallow landslide initiation in the San Francisco Bay area, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, B. D.; Stock, J. D.; Godt, J. W.

2012-12-01

Intense winter storms in the San Francisco Bay area (SFBA) of California often trigger widespread landsliding, including debris flows that originate as shallow (<3 m) landslides. The strongest storms result in the loss of lives and millions of dollars in damage. Whereas precipitation-based rainfall intensity-duration landslide initiation thresholds are available for the SFBA, antecedent soil moisture conditions also play a major role in determining the likelihood for landslide generation from a given storm. Previous research has demonstrated that antecedent triggering conditions can be obtained using pre-storm precipitation thresholds (e.g., 250-400 mm of seasonal pre-storm rainfall). However, these types of thresholds do not account for the often cyclic pattern of wetting and drying that can occur early in the winter storm season (i.e. October - December), and which may skew the applicability of precipitation-only based thresholds. To account for these cyclic and constantly evolving soil moisture conditions, we have pursued methods to measure soil moisture directly and integrate these measurements into predictive analyses. During the past three years, the USGS installed a series of four subsurface hydrology monitoring stations in shallow landslide-prone locations of the SFBA to establish a soil-moisture-based antecedent threshold. In addition to soil moisture sensors, the monitoring stations are each equipped with piezometers to record positive pore water pressure that is likely required for shallow landslide initiation and a rain gauge to compare storm intensities with existing precipitation-based thresholds. Each monitoring station is located on a natural, grassy hillslope typically composed of silty sands, underlain by sandstone, sloping at approximately 30°, and with a depth to bedrock of approximately 1 meter - conditions typical of debris flow generation in the SFBA. Our observations reveal that various locations respond differently to seasonal precipitation, with some areas (e.g., Marin County) remaining at higher levels of saturation for longer periods of time during the winter compared to other areas (e.g., the East Bay Hills). In general, this coincides directly with relative precipitation totals in each region (i.e., Marin county typically receives more rainfall over a longer period of time than the East Bay). In those areas that are saturated for longer periods, the shallow landslide hazard is prolonged because these conditions are first needed for storm-related precipitation to subsequently generate positive pore pressure on the failure plane. Both piezometric field measurements and limit equilibrium slope stability analyses indicate that positive pore pressure is required for most shallow landslide failures to occur in the study regions. Based on measurements from two of the sites, our analyses further indicate that at least 2 kPa of pressure is required to trigger shallow landsliding. We measured this pressure at one of our sites in 2011, where more than 30 landslides, including several that mobilized into debris flows, occurred. Additional monitoring at these sites will be used to further constrain and refine antecedent moisture-based thresholds for shallow landslide initiation.

Modeling Influenza Transmission Using Environmental Parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Soebiyanto, Radina P.; Kiang, Richard K.

2010-01-01

Influenza is an acute viral respiratory disease that has significant mortality, morbidity and economic burden worldwide. It infects approximately 5-15% of the world population, and causes 250,000 500,000 deaths each year. The role of environments on influenza is often drawn upon the latitude variability of influenza seasonality pattern. In regions with temperate climate, influenza epidemics exhibit clear seasonal pattern that peak during winter months, but it is not as evident in the tropics. Toward this end, we developed mathematical model and forecasting capabilities for influenza in regions characterized by warm climate Hong Kong (China) and Maricopa County (Arizona, USA). The best model for Hong Kong uses Land Surface Temperature (LST), precipitation and relative humidity as its covariates. Whereas for Maricopa County, we found that weekly influenza cases can be best modelled using mean air temperature as its covariates. Our forecasts can further guides public health organizations in targeting influenza prevention and control measures such as vaccination.

Relationship Between South Atlantic Subtropical High and South Atlantic SST Anomalies during Extreme Precipitation Events on Southeast Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pampuch, L.; Ambrizzi, T.

2012-12-01

The Southeast region of Brazil comprises the states of Sao Paulo, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro and Espirito Santo. It occupies 10.85% of Brazilian territory and is highly urbanized. The Southeast Brazil is the biggest geoeconomic region of the country having a strong and diverse economy. Agriculture dominates in all states of the region. The main agricultural products are sugar cane, coffee, cotton, maize, cassava, rice, beans and fruits. Livestock farming is also practiced in the region. The largest herd of cattle is found in the state of Minas Gerais. These activities are highly dependent on the amount and distribution of rainfall. Studies of extreme precipitation events over Brazil have been well emphasized in the literature over the years and their relationship with anomalies of sea surface temperature (SST) in both the Pacific and the Atlantic Ocean have been analyzed. This paper investigates the extreme events occurring in southeastern Brazil from 1982 to 2004 using the technique of quantiles. The composite technique was applied to precipitation, sea level pressure anomaly (SLP) and sea surface temperature anomaly (SST) data in order to investigate the characteristics of rainfall patterns, the position and intensity of South Atlantic subtropical high (SASH) and SST anomalies in the Southern Atlantic Ocean (SAO) in the occurrence of these events and to make a distinction between dry and wet extremes. Analyzing the precipitation patterns, it was noticed that the composition of dry events throughout the Southeast Brazil has negative precipitation anomalies. Particularly, in the southern part of the region there is a large precipitation deficit, having an average of 50mm in the winter months. The composition for the wet events shows that, on average, positive precipitation anomalies with the southern region containing the highest cumulative average, reaching a positive anomaly of 100mm. The composition of SLP in the case of dry events indicates a positive anomaly of pressure on SAO close to the South America continent and a negative anomaly far from the continent. This configuration might represent a southwest movement of the SASH. For the wet events composition is possible to note an opposite configuration: an negative anomaly is seen near the South American continent and a positive one is away of it. Such a configuration may represent a weakening of SASH and a shift to northeast part of the SAO. In the composition of the SST anomalies is possible to note a different pattern for both cases with regard to the tropical Pacific, indicating that in dry years an El Niño pattern is evident and during the wet years a La Niña pattern prevails. On the other hand, for the SAO, colder SST anomalies in the dry years was observed next to the coast of South America, and during the rainy years a positive anomaly was observed away from the continent.

Comparison of winter wheat yield sensitivity to climate variables under irrigated and rain-fed conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Dengpan; Shen, Yanjun; Zhang, He; Moiwo, Juana P.; Qi, Yongqing; Wang, Rende; Pei, Hongwei; Zhang, Yucui; Shen, Huitao

2016-09-01

Crop simulation models provide alternative, less time-consuming, and cost-effective means of determining the sensitivity of crop yield to climate change. In this study, two dynamic mechanistic models, CERES (Crop Environment Resource Synthesis) and APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator), were used to simulate the yield of wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) under well irrigated (CFG) and rain-fed (YY) conditions in relation to different climate variables in the North China Plain (NCP). The study tested winter wheat yield sensitivity to different levels of temperature, radiation, precipitation, and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration under CFG and YY conditions at Luancheng Agro-ecosystem Experimental Stations in the NCP. The results from the CERES and APSIM wheat crop models were largely consistent and suggested that changes in climate variables influenced wheat grain yield in the NCP. There was also significant variation in the sensitivity of winter wheat yield to climate variables under different water (CFG and YY) conditions. While a temperature increase of 2°C was the threshold beyond which temperature negatively influenced wheat yield under CFG, a temperature rise exceeding 1°C decreased winter wheat grain yield under YY. A decrease in solar radiation decreased wheat grain yield under both CFG and YY conditions. Although the sensitivity of winter wheat yield to precipitation was small under the CFG, yield decreased significantly with decreasing precipitation under the rainfed YY treatment. The results also suggest that wheat yield under CFG linearly increased by ≈3.5% per 60 ppm (parts per million) increase in CO2 concentration from 380 to 560 ppm, and yield under YY increased linearly by ≈7.0% for the same increase in CO2 concentration.

Regional temperature and precipitation changes under high-end (≥4°C) global warming.

PubMed

Sanderson, M G; Hemming, D L; Betts, R A

2011-01-13

Climate models vary widely in their projections of both global mean temperature rise and regional climate changes, but are there any systematic differences in regional changes associated with different levels of global climate sensitivity? This paper examines model projections of climate change over the twenty-first century from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report which used the A2 scenario from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, assessing whether different regional responses can be seen in models categorized as 'high-end' (those projecting 4°C or more by the end of the twenty-first century relative to the preindustrial). It also identifies regions where the largest climate changes are projected under high-end warming. The mean spatial patterns of change, normalized against the global rate of warming, are generally similar in high-end and 'non-high-end' simulations. The exception is the higher latitudes, where land areas warm relatively faster in boreal summer in high-end models, but sea ice areas show varying differences in boreal winter. Many continental interiors warm approximately twice as fast as the global average, with this being particularly accentuated in boreal summer, and the winter-time Arctic Ocean temperatures rise more than three times faster than the global average. Large temperature increases and precipitation decreases are projected in some of the regions that currently experience water resource pressures, including Mediterranean fringe regions, indicating enhanced pressure on water resources in these areas.

Historical Chronology of ENSO Events Based Upon Documentary Data From South America: Strengths and Limitations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luc, O.

2007-05-01

The first reconstructions of past El Niño occurrences were proposed by W. Quinn twenty years ago. They were based on documentary evidence of anomalous rainfall episodes, destructive floods and other possible impacts of El Niño conditions in Peru and other South-American countries. It has been shown, later, that the El Niño chronological sequence covering the last four and a half centuries produced by Quinn needed a thorough revision since many so-called EN events had not occurred while some others had been overlooked. Beside the classical methodological problems met in historical climatology studies (reliability of data, confidence in the sources, primary and secondary information), the reconstruction of former EN events faces specific difficulties dealing with the significance of the indicators and their spatial location. For instance, strong precipitation anomalies during summer in Southern Ecuador and northern Peru and precipitation excess recorded in the preceding winter in central Chile constitute quite reliable proxies of El Niño conditions, in modern times. However this observed teleconnection pattern, which is useful to reinforce the interpretation of past EN occurrences, seems to have been inoperative before the early nineteenth century. It is interpreted that atmospheric circulation features during the Little Ice Age interfered with the teleconnection system linking the EN impacts in northern Peru and central Chile. As a consequence, how should be evaluated the significance of documented winter precipitation excess in central Chile in years during which there is drought evidence in northern Peru, during the sixteenth to eighteenth century? And vice versa, are former evidences for precipitation excess in northern Peru (prior to the nineteenth century) quite reliable indicators for EN conditions, even if the preceding winter was dry in the Valparaiso-Santiago region? Other specific problems met in the building-up of a consolidated EN chronological sequence deal with the non-homogeneity of the documentary records, the reconstruction of the paleo-events strength and the difficulty to cross check documentary data with other annually resolved records (corals, tree-rings and ice-core data). In spite of all these limitations, the documentation of former EN occurrences based upon written archives from colonial South-America remains an unavoidable and powerful tool to reconstruct a solid El Niño chronology for the last half millennium and to better understand the interplay of the different modes (at the interannual, decadal, multidecadal and centennial scales) of climate variations in this part of the world.

Simulation of Relationship between ENSO and winter precipitation over Western Himalayas: Application of Regional climate model (RegT-Band)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, P. R.; Mohanty, U. C.; Dey, S.; Acharaya, N.; Sinha, P.

2012-12-01

Precipitation over the Western Himalayas region during winter is mainly associated with the passage of midlatitude synoptic systems known as western disturbances (WDs). Recently, many observational and modeling studies reported that the relationship of the Indian southwest monsoon rainfall with El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has weakened since around 1980. But, in contrast, only very few observational studies are reported so far to examine the relationship between ENSO and the winter precipitation over the Western Himalayas region from December to February (DJF). But there is a huge gap of modeling this phenomenon. So keeping in view of the absence of modeling studies, an attempt is made to simulate the relationship between wintertime precipitations associated with large scale global forcing of ENSO over the Western Himalayas. In the present study, RegT-Band, a tropical band version of the regional climate model RegCM4 is integrated for a set of 5 El Niño (1986-87, 1991-92, 1997-98, 2002-03, 2009-10) and 4 La Niña (1984-85, 1988-89, 1999-2000, 2007-08) years with the observed sea-surface temperature and lateral boundary condition. The domain extends from 50° S to 50° N and covers the entire tropics at a grid spacing of about 45 km, i.e. it includes lateral boundary forcing only at the southern and northern boundaries. The performance evaluation of the model in capturing the large scale fields followed by ENSO response with wintertime precipitation over the Western Himalayas region has been carried out by using National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis 2 (NNRP2) data (2.5° x 2.5°) and Aphrodite precipitation data (0.25° x 0.25°). The model is able to delineate the mean circulation associated with ENSO over the region during DJF reasonably well and shows strong southwesterly to northwesterly wind flow, which is there in verification analysis also. The vertical structure of the low as well as upper level air circulation for the ENSO regimes has been also studied. For this purpose, a longitudional cross-section of the seasonal sectorial mean of the zonal and meridional winds is analyzed form NNRP2 and RegT-Band model simulations. The model simulated zonal wind is in good agreement with verification analysis however core speed of subtropical Westerly Jet Stream in upper level (around 150 hPa) is overestimated by the model. Further, the sectorial cross section of meridional wind indicates that the wind around 200 hPa is stronger during ENSO years, and this feature is emphasized well in the model simulation. So the upper and lower level sartorial components of wind supports the argument of strengthening of circulation associated with ENSO, and hence enhanced precipitation during ENSO-winter precipitation relationship. So our preliminary study indicates that the tropical band version of the regional climate model can be effectively used for the better understanding of these large scale global forcing's. This can improve the predictability of precipitation over this region and so it might help to come out with better socio-economic tools. Key words: Winter precipitation, El-Nino-southern oscillation, RegCM4, ENSO response and RegT-Band.

Holocene Asian monsoon evolution revealed by a pollen record from an alpine lake on the southeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Enlou; Wang, Yongbo; Sun, Weiwei; Shen, Ji

2016-02-01

We present the results of pollen analyses from a 1105 cm long sediment core from Wuxu Lake in southwestern China, which depict the variations of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) during the last 12.3 ka. During the period of 12.3 to 11.3 cal ka BP, the dominance of Betula forest and open alpine shrub and meadow around Wuxu Lake indicates a climate with relatively cold winters and dry summers, corresponding to the Younger Dryas event. Between 11.3 and 10.4 cal ka BP, further expansion of Betula forest and the retreat of alpine shrubs and meadows reflect a greater seasonality with cold winters and gradually increasing summer precipitation. From 10.4 to 4.9 cal ka BP, the dense forest understory, together with the gradual decrease in Betula forest and increase in Tsuga forest, suggest that the winters became warmer and summer precipitation was at a maximum, corresponding to the Holocene climatic optimum. Between 4.9 and 2.6 cal ka BP, Tsuga forest and alpine shrubs and meadows expanded significantly, reflecting relatively warm winters and decreased summer precipitation. Since 2.6 cal ka BP, reforestation around Wuxu Lake indicates a renewed humid period in the late Holocene; however, the vegetation in the catchment may also have been affected by grazing activity during this period. The results of our study are generally consistent with previous findings; however, the timing and duration of the Holocene climatic optimum from different records are inconsistent, reflecting real contrast in local rainfall response to the ISM. Overall, the EAWM is broadly in-phase with the ISM on the orbital timescale, and both monsoons exhibit a trend of decreasing strength from the early to late Holocene, reflecting the interplay of solar insolation receipt between the winter and summer seasons and El Niño-Southern Oscillation strength in the tropical Pacific.

Holocene Asian monsoon evolution revealed by a pollen record from an alpine lake on the southeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, E.; Wang, Y.; Sun, W.; Shen, J.

2015-10-01

We present the results of pollen analyses from a 1105-cm-long sediment core from Wuxu Lake in southwestern China, which depict the variations of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) during the last 12.3 ka. During the period of 12.3 to 11.3 cal ka BP, the dominance of Betula forest and open alpine shrub and meadow around Wuxu Lake indicates a climate with relatively cold winters and dry summers, corresponding to the Younger Dryas event. Between 11.3 and 10.4 cal ka BP, further expansion of Betula forest and the retreat of alpine shrubs and meadows reflect a greater seasonality with cold winters and gradually increasing summer precipitation. From 10.4 to 4.9 cal ka BP, the dense forest understory, together with the gradual decrease in Betula forest and increase in Tsuga forest, suggest that the winters became warmer and summer precipitation was at a maximum, corresponding to the Holocene climatic optimum. Between 4.9 and 2.6 cal ka BP, Tsuga forest and alpine shrubs and meadows expanded significantly, reflecting relatively warm winters and decreased summer precipitation. Since 2.6 cal ka BP, reforestation around Wuxu Lake indicates a renewed strengthening of the ISM in the late Holocene; however, the vegetation in the catchment may also have been affected by grazing activity during this period. The results of our study are generally consistent with previous findings; however, the timing and duration of the Holocene climatic optimum from different records are inconsistent, reflecting real contrast in local rainfall response to the ISM. Overall, the EAWM is broadly in-phase with the ISM on the orbital timescale, and both monsoons exhibit a trend of decreasing strength from the early to late Holocene, reflecting the interplay of solar insolation receipt between the winter and summer seasons and El Niño Southern Oscillation strength in the tropical Pacific.

Drought and Snow: Analysis of Drivers, Processes and Impacts of Streamflow Droughts in Snow-Dominated Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Loon, Anne; Laaha, Gregor; Van Lanen, Henny; Parajka, Juraj; Fleig, Anne; Ploum, Stefan

2016-04-01

Around the world, drought events with severe socio-economic impacts seem to have a link with winter snowpack. That is the case for the current California drought, but analysing historical archives and drought impact databases for the US and Europe we found many impacts that can be attributed to snowpack anomalies. Agriculture and electricity production (hydropower) were found to be the sectors that are most affected by drought related to snow. In this study, we investigated the processes underlying hydrological drought in snow-dominated regions. We found that drought drivers are different in different regions. In Norway, more than 90% of spring streamflow droughts were preceded by below-average winter precipitation, while both winter air temperature and spring weather were indifferent. In Austria, however, spring streamflow droughts could only be explained by a combination of factors. For most events, winter and spring air temperatures were above average (70% and 65% of events, respectively), and winter and spring precipitation was below average (75% and 80%). Because snow storage results from complex interactions between precipitation and temperature and these variables vary strongly with altitude, snow-related drought drivers have a large spatial variability. The weather input is subsequently modified by land properties. Multiple linear regression between drought severity variables and a large number of catchment characteristics for 44 catchments in Austria showed that storage influences both drought duration and deficit volume. The seasonal storage of water in snow and glaciers was found to be a statistically important variable explaining streamflow drought deficit. Our drought impact analysis in Europe also showed that 40% of the selected drought impacts was caused by a combination of snow-related and other drought types. For example, the combination of a winter drought with a preceding or subsequent summer drought was reported to have a large effect on reservoir levels and, consequently, on drinking water and electricity production. Snow storage therefore, is an important factor to consider in drought monitoring, prediction and management.

Drought and Snow: Analysis of Drivers, Processes and Impacts of Streamflow Droughts in Snow-Dominated Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Loon, A.; Laaha, G.; Van Lanen, H.; Parajka, J.; Fleig, A. K.; Ploum, S.

2015-12-01

Around the world, drought events with severe socio-economic impacts seem to have a link with winter snowpack. That is the case for the current California drought, but analysing historical archives and drought impact databases for the US and Europe we found many impacts that can be attributed to snowpack anomalies. Agriculture and electricity production (hydropower) were found to be the sectors that are most affected by drought related to snow. In this study, we investigated the processes underlying hydrological drought in snow-dominated regions. We found that drought drivers are different in different regions. In Norway, more than 90% of spring streamflow droughts were preceded by below-average winter precipitation, while both winter air temperature and spring weather were indifferent. In Austria, however, spring streamflow droughts could only be explained by a combination of factors. For most events, winter and spring air temperatures were above average (70% and 65% of events, respectively), and winter and spring precipitation was below average (75% and 80%). Because snow storage results from complex interactions between precipitation and temperature and these variables vary strongly with altitude, snow-related drought drivers have a large spatial variability. The weather input is subsequently modified by land properties. Multiple linear regression between drought severity variables and a large number of catchment characteristics for 44 catchments in Austria showed that storage influences both drought duration and deficit volume. The seasonal storage of water in snow and glaciers was found to be a statistically important variable explaining streamflow drought deficit. Our drought impact analysis in Europe also showed that 40% of the selected drought impacts was caused by a combination of snow-related and other drought types. For example, the combination of a winter drought with a preceding or subsequent summer drought was reported to have a large effect on reservoir levels and, consequently, on drinking water and electricity production. Snow storage therefore, is an important factor to consider in drought monitoring, prediction and management.

General weather conditions and precipitation contributing to the 2011 flooding in the Mississippi River and Red River of the North Basins, December 2010 through July 2011: Chapter B in 2011 floods of the central United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vining, Kevin C.; Chase, Katherine J.; Loss, Gina R.

2013-01-01

Excessive precipitation produced severe flooding in the Mississippi River and Red River of the North Basins during spring and summer 2011. The 2011 flooding was caused by weather conditions that were affected in part by a La Niña climate pattern. During the 2010–11 climatological winter (December 2010–February 2011), several low pressure troughs from the Rocky Mountains into the Ohio River subbasin produced large amounts of precipitation. Precipitation was above normal to record amounts in parts of the Missouri River, Red River of the North, and upper Mississippi River subbasins, and mostly normal to below normal in the Ohio River and lower Mississippi River subbasins. During the 2011 climatological spring (March–May 2011), a large low pressure trough over the continental States and a high pressure ridge centered in the vicinity of the Gulf of Mexico combined to produce storms with copious precipitation along frontal boundaries across the Central States. Rain totals recorded during the April 18–28, 2011, precipitation event were more than 8 inches at several locations, while an impressive total of 16.15 inches was recorded at Cape Girardeau, Missouri. Several locations in the Missouri River subbasin had rainfall totals that were nearly one-third to one-half of their 1971–2000 normal annual amounts during a May 16–31, 2011, precipitation event. During June and July, thunderstorm development along frontal boundaries resulted in areas of heavy rain across the Missouri River, Red River of the North, and upper Mississippi River subbasins, while rainfall in the lower Mississippi River subbasin was mostly below normal.

Assessing the spatial variability of mountain precipitation in California's Sierra Nevada using the Airborne Snow Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brandt, T.; Deems, J. S.; Painter, T. H.; Dozier, J.

2016-12-01

In California's Sierra Nevada, 10 or fewer winter storms are responsible for most of the annual precipitation, which falls mostly as snow. Presently, surface stations are used to measure the dynamics of mountain precipitation. However, even in places like the Sierra Nevada—one of the most gauged regions in the world—the paucity of surface stations can lead to large errors in precipitation thereby biasing both total water year and short-term streamflow forecasts. Remotely sensed snow depth and water equivalent, at a time scale that resolves storms, might provide a novel solution to the problems of: (1) quantifying the spatial variability of mountain precipitation; and (2) assessing gridded precipitation products that are mostly based on surface station interpolation. NASA's Airborne Snow Observatory (ASO), an imaging spectrometer and LiDAR system, has measured snow in the Tuolumne River Basin in California's Sierra Nevada for the past four years, 2013-2016; and, measurements will continue. Principally, ASO monitors the progression of melt for water supply forecasting, nonetheless, a number of flights bracketed storms allowing for estimates of snow accumulation. In this study we examine a few of the ASO recorded storms to determine both the basin and subbasin orographic effect as well as the spatial patterns in total precipitation. We then compare these results to a number of gridded climate products and weather models including: Daymet, the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM), the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2), and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Finally, to put each ASO recorded storm into context, we use a climatology produced from snow pillows and the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) for 2014-2016 to examine key accumulation events, and classify storms based on their integrated water vapor flux.

The impact of climate change on river discharges in Eastern Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Croitoru, Adina-Eliza; Minea, Ionut

2014-05-01

Climate changes imply many changes in different socioeconomic and environmental fields. Among the most important impacts are changes in water resources. Long- and mid-term river discharge flow analysis is essential for the effective management of water resources. In this work, the changes in two climatic parameters (temperature and precipitation) and river discharges and the connections between precipitation and river discharges were investigated. Seasonal and annual climatic and hydrological data collected at six weather stations and 17 hydrological stations were employed. The data sets cover 57 years (1950-2006). The modified Mann-Kendall test was used to calculate trends, and the Bravais-Pearson correlation index was chosen to detect the connections between precipitation and river discharge data series. The main findings are as follows: A general increase was identified in all the three parameters. The air temperature data series showed the highest frequency of statistically significant slopes, mainly in annual and spring series. All data series, except the series for winter, showed an increase in precipitation; in winter, a significant decrease in precipitation was observed at most of the stations. The increase in precipitation is reflected in the upward trends of the river discharge flows, as verified by the good Bravais-Pearson correlations, mainly for annual, summer, and autumn series

The impact of climate changes on rivers discharge in Eastern Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Croitoru, Adina-Eliza; Minea, Ionus

2015-05-01

Climate changes imply many changes in different socioeconomic and environmental fields. Among the most important impacts are changes in water resources. Long- and mid-term river discharge flow analysis is essential for the effective management of water resources. In this work, the changes in temperature, precipitation, and river discharges as well as the connections between precipitation and river discharges were investigated. Seasonal and annual climatic and hydrological data collected at 6 weather stations and 17 hydrological stations were employed. The data sets cover 57 years (1950-2006). The modified Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope were used to calculate trends and their slopes, whereas the Bravais-Pearson correlation index was chosen to detect the connections between precipitation and river discharge data series. The main findings are as follows: a general increase was identified in all the three variables; the air temperature data series showed the highest frequency of statistically significant slopes, mainly in annual and spring series; all data series, except the series for winter, showed an increase in precipitation, and in winter, a significant decrease in precipitation was observed at most of the stations. The increase in precipitation is reflected in the upward trends of the river discharge flows, as verified by the good Bravais-Pearson correlations, mainly for annual, summer, and autumn series.

Comparison of sea level pressure reconstructions from western North American tree rings with a proxy record of winter severity in Japan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gordon, G.A.; Lough, J.M.; Fritts, H.C.

Reconstructions of winter (December-February) sea level pressure (SLP) from western North American tree-ring chronologies are compared with a proxy record of winter severity in Japan derived from the historically documented freeze dates of Lake Suwa. The SLP reconstructions extend from 1602 to 1961 and freeze dates from 1443 to 1954. The instrumental and reconstructed SLP for the 20th century reveal two distinct circulation regimes (teleconnection patterns) over the North Pacific that appear to be associated with severe and mild winters and, consequently, with early and late freezing of the lake. The reconstructed SLPO anomaly map for severe winters prior tomore » 1683 shows a pattern similar to those in the instrumental and reconstructed records of the 20th century. The analysis reveals that the reliability of the reconstruction may vary with the configuration of the actual SLP pattern as the mild winter pattern is not as well reconstructed as the severe winter pattern. That result illustrates the importance of testing the reliability of a reconstruction within the context of the intended interpretation. This analysis demonstrates how different types of proxy climate data can be compared and verified.« less

Trace element and major ion composition of wet and dry depositon in Ankara, Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaya, Güven; Tuncel, Gürdal

Daily, wet-only precipitation samples collected over a two year period were analyzed for SO 42-, NO 3-, Cl -, NH 4+, H +, Ca, Mg, K, Na, Al, Cu, Cd, Cr, Zn, V and Ni. Weekly dry-deposition samples collected on petri-dishes over the same period were analyzed only for major ions. Concentrations of ions and elements in Ankara precipitation are comparable with concentrations reported in literature for other urban areas. However, the wet deposition fluxes are the lowest among literature values, owing to small annual precipitation in the region. Although, annual average pH in precipitation is 4.7, episodic rain events with fairly low pH's were observed. Approximately half of the acidity in Ankara precipitation is neutralized in the winter season, while the acidity is completely neutralized by airborne soil particles that are rich in CaCO 3 in the summer precipitation. The SO 42- and NO 3- contributes approximately equally on the free acidity in winter. Main forms of SO 42- and NO 3- in precipitation are CaSO 4 and Ca(NO 3) 2, respectively. Crustal elements and ions have higher concentrations during summer season, while anthropogenic ions and elements did not show well-defined seasonal cycles. The lack of industrial activity in Ankara has profound influence on the temporal behavior of elements and ions.

Winter North Atlantic Oscillation impact on European precipitation and drought under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsanis, I.; Tapoglou, E.

2018-01-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is responsible for the climatic variability in the Northern Hemisphere, in particular, in Europe and is related to extreme events, such as droughts. The purpose of this paper is to study the correlation between precipitation and winter (December-January-February-March (DJFM)) NAO both for the historical period (1951-2000) and two future periods (2001-2050 and 2051-2100). NAO is calculated for these three periods by using sea level pressure, while precipitation data from seven climate models following the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 are also used in this study. An increasing trend in years with positive DJFM NAO values in the future is defined by this data, along with higher average DJFM NAO values. The correlation between precipitation and DJFM NAO is high, especially in the Northern (high positive) and Southern Europe (high negative). Therefore, higher precipitation in Northern Europe and lower precipitation in Southern Europe are expected in the future. Cross-spectral analysis between precipitation and DJFM NAO time series in three different locations in Europe revealed the best coherence in a dominant cycle between 3 and 4 years. Finally, the maximum drought period in terms of consecutive months with drought is examined in these three locations. The results can be used for strategic planning in a sustainable water resources management plan, since there is a link between drought events and NAO.

A 500 year seasonally resolved δ18O and δ13C, layer thickness and calcite fabric record from a speleothem deposited in equilibrium of the Han-sur-Lesse cave, Belgium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Rampelbergh, M.; Verheyden, S.; Allan, M.; Quinif, Y.; Cheng, H.; Edwards, L.; Keppens, E.; Claeys, P.

2014-10-01

Speleothem δ18O and δ13C signals have already proven to enable climate reconstructions at high resolution. However, seasonally resolved speleothem records are still scarce and often difficult to interpret in terms of climate due to the multitude of factors that can affect the proxy signals. In this paper, a fast growing (up to 2 mm yr-1) seasonally laminated speleothem from the Han-sur-Lesse cave (Belgium) is analyzed for its δ18O and δ13C values, layer thickness and changes in calcite fabric. The studied part of the speleothem covers the most recent 500 years as indicated by layer counting and confirmed by 20 U/Th-ages. Epikarst recharge occurs mainly in winter and lesser during spring and fall. a good correlation can be established between lower winter temperatures and lower winter precipitation (DJF) based on the measured data by the Belgian meteorological institute since 1833 indicating that a dry winter is also a cold winter. Colder and dryer winters cause lower winter recharge and generally drier conditions in the cave. Lower winter recharge decreases the amount of isotopically light (δ18O) winter precipitation added to the epikarst in comparison to the heavier spring and fall waters, which leads to a net increase in δ18O value of the water in the epikarst. Increased δ18O values in the Proserpine are consequently interpreted to reflect colder and dryer winters. Higher δ13C signals are interpreted to reflect increased prior calcite precipitation (PCP) due to colder and dryer winters, when recharge is lower. Thinner layers and darker calcite relate to slower growth and occur when drip rates are low and when the drip water calcium ion concentration is low due to increased PCP, both caused by lower recharge during periods with colder and dryer winters. Exceptionally cold and dry winters cause the drip discharge to decrease under a certain threshold value inducing anomalies in the measured proxy records. Such anomalies occur from 1565 to 1610, from 1770 to 1800, from 1810 to 1860 and from 1880 to 1895 and correspond with exceptionally cold periods in proxy-based, historical and instrumental records and may relate to different factors such as negative winter NAO phases, lower solar irradiance and/or volcanic eruptions. When the discharge threshold is not reached, lower amplitude variations are observed such as between 1479 and 1565 and between 1730 and 1770 with two periods of relatively warmer and wetter winters. Between 1610 and 1730 a period of relatively cooler and dryer winters occurs and may relate to a decrease in solar irradiance during the Maunder Minimum (1640-1714). Seasonal δ18O variations indicate a 2.5 °C seasonality in cave air temperature during the two periods with warmer and wetter winters (1479-1565 and 1730-1770), and correspond to the cave air temperature seasonality observed today. a smaller 1.5 °C seasonality in cave air temperature occurs during the interval with colder and wetter winters between 1610 and 1730 and suggests colder summers. The δ13C seasonal changes suggest that the seasonality in discharge was lower than the one observed today with a short interval of increased seasonality between 1600 and 1660 reflecting stronger summer PCP-effects due to decreased winter recharge.

Meteorological characteristics and overland precipitation impacts of atmospheric rivers affecting the West coast of North America based on eight years of SSM/I satellite observations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Neiman, P.J.; Ralph, F.M.; Wick, G.A.; Lundquist, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.

2008-01-01

The pre-cold-frontal low-level jet within oceanic extratropical cyclones represents the lower-tropospheric component of a deeper corridor of concentrated water vapor transport in the cyclone warm sector. These corridors are referred to as atmospheric rivers (ARs) because they are narrow relative to their length scale and are responsible for most of the poleward water vapor transport at midlatitudes. This paper investigates landfalling ARs along adjacent north- and south-coast regions of western North America. Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/ I) satellite observations of long, narrow plumes of enhanced integrated water vapor (IWV) were used to detect ARs just offshore over the eastern Pacific from 1997 to 2005. The north coast experienced 301 AR days, while the south coast had only 115. Most ARs occurred during the warm season in the north and cool season in the south, despite the fact that the cool season is climatologically wettest for both regions. Composite SSM/I IWV analyses showed landfalling wintertime ARs extending northeastward from the tropical eastern Pacific, whereas the summertime composites were zonally oriented and, thus, did not originate from this region of the tropics. Companion SSM/I composites of daily rainfall showed significant orographic enhancement during the landfall of winter (but not summer) ARs. The NCEP-NCAR global reanalysis dataset and regional precipitation networks were used to assess composite synoptic characteristics and overland impacts of landfalling ARs. The ARs possess strong vertically integrated horizontal water vapor fluxes that, on average, impinge on the West Coast in the pre-cold-frontal environment in winter and post-cold-frontal environment in summer. Even though the IWV in the ARs is greater in summer, the vapor flux is stronger in winter due to much stronger flows associated with more intense storms. The landfall of ARs in winter and north-coast summer coincides with anomalous warmth, a trough offshore, and ridging over the Intermountain West, whereas the south-coast summer ARs coincide with relatively cold conditions and a near-coast trough. ARs have a much more profound impact on near-coast precipitation in winter than summer, because the terrain-normal vapor flux is stronger and the air more nearly saturated in winter. During winter, ARs produce roughly twice as much precipitation as all storms. In addition, wintertime ARs with the largest SSM/I IWV are tied to more intense storms with stronger flows and vapor fluxes, and more precipitation. ARs generally increase snow water equivalent (SWE) in autumn/winter and decrease SWE in spring. On average, wintertime SWE exhibits normal gains during north-coast AR storms and above-normal gains during the south-coast AR storms. The north-coast sites are mostly lower in altitude, where warmer-than-normal conditions more frequently yield rain. During those events when heavy rain from a warm AR storm falls on a preexisting snowpack, flooding is more likely to occur. ?? 2008 American Meteorological Society.

The Cenozoic Cooling - continental signals from the Atlantic and Pacific side of Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Utescher, Torsten; Bondarenko, Olesya V.; Mosbrugger, Volker

2015-04-01

The evolution of Cenozoic continental climate signals from the Atlantic and Pacific side of Eurasia can be assessed for the first time by comparing climate records obtained for two mid-latitudinal regions. For the West, a detailed climate record over the past 45 Ma, based on palaeofloras from two Northern German Cenozoic basins (Mosbrugger et al., 2005) revealed major trends and shorter-term events throughout the Cenozoic Cooling, thus testifying the close correlation of continental and marine temperature evolution as derived from oxygen isotopes (Zachos et al., 2008). Using the same methodology, we analyze a total of 14 floral horizons originating from continental strata of Southern Primory'e (Russia) in order to study the evolution at the eastern side of the continent. The Primory'e record spans the middle Eocene to early Pleistocene. As the coeval record for the Atlantic side, it reflects major global signals of Cenozoic climate change such as the temperature decline throughout the late Eocene, coinciding with the growth of Antarctic Ice-sheets, warming during the Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum, and step-wise cooling throughout the later Neogene. The comparison of both records reveals differing regional patterns. The considerable longitudinal temperature gradient, currently existing between both study areas, already began to evolve during the Aquitanian, and was very significant during the Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum. The temperature offset between East and West is likely attributable to an effective North Atlantic Current, already operational from the late early Miocene onwards bringing about mild winters and low seasonality in Western Europe, while in Primory'e, seasonality steadily increased from the late Oligocene on. The strong late Pliocene decline of cold month mean temperatures recorded in Primory'e is supposed to coincide with the establishment of the Siberian High as semi-permanent structure of the Northern Hemisphere circulation pattern. When comparing the precipitation records obtained for both study areas, an unexpected co-variability at the longer-term (in the order of 5-20 Ma) is noted, pointing to continent-wide hydrological changes. The steady decline of mean annual precipitation in the Primory'e record, beginning in the Bartonian and culminating in the Aquitanian, coincides with an aridity increase reported from coeval Chinese inland localities of the mid-latitudes. The seasonality patterns of rainfall point to progressive intensification of the East Asian Summer Monsoon in Primory'e since the later Tortonian while the post-Zanclean decline of the precipitation of the dry season can be related to an increasing impact of the winter monsoon.

Miocene shift of European atmospheric circulation from trade wind to westerlies

PubMed Central

Quan, Cheng; Liu, Yu-Sheng (Christopher); Tang, Hui; Utescher, Torsten

2014-01-01

The modern European climatic regime is peculiar, due to its unitary winter but diverse summer climates and a pronounced Mediterranean climate in the south. However, little is known on its evolution in the deep time. Here we reconstruct the European summer climate conditions in the Tortonian (11.62–7.246 Ma) using plant fossil assemblages from 75 well-dated sites across Europe. Our results clearly show that the Tortonian Europe mainly had humid to subhumid summers and no arid climate has been conclusively detected, indicating that the summer-dry Mediterranean-type climate has not yet been established along most of the Mediterranean coast at least by the Tortonian. More importantly, the reconstructed distribution pattern of summer precipitation reveals that the Tortonian European must have largely been controlled by westerlies, resulting in higher precipitation in the west and the lower in the east. The Tortonian westerly wind field appears to differ principally from the trade wind pattern of the preceding Serravallian (13.82–11.62 Ma), recently deduced from herpetofaunal fossils. Such a shift in atmospheric circulation, if ever occurred, might result from the development of ice caps and glaciers in the polar region during the Late Miocene global cooling, the then reorganization of oceanic circulation, and/or the Himalayan-Tibetan uplift. PMID:25012454

Relativistic Electron Microburst Events: Modeling the Atmospheric Impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seppälä, A.; Douma, E.; Rodger, C. J.; Verronen, P. T.; Clilverd, M. A.; Bortnik, J.

2018-01-01

Relativistic electron microbursts are short-duration, high-energy precipitation events that are an important loss mechanism for radiation belt particles. Previous work to estimate their atmospheric impacts found no significant changes in atmospheric chemistry. Recent research on microbursts revealed that both the fluxes and frequency of microbursts are much higher than previously thought. We test the seasonal range of atmospheric impacts using this latest microburst information as input forcing to the Sodankylä Ion and Neutral Chemistry model. A modeled 6 h microburst storm increased mesospheric HOx by 15-25%/800-1,200% (summer/winter) and NOx by 1,500-2,250%/80-120%. Together, these drive 7-12%/12-20% upper mesospheric ozone losses, with a further 10-12% longer-term middle mesospheric loss during winter. Our results suggest that existing electron precipitation proxies, which do not yet take relativistic microburst energies into account, are likely missing a significant source of precipitation that contributes to atmospheric ozone balance.

The impact of North Atlantic wind and cyclone trends on European precipitation and significant wave height in the Atlantic.

PubMed

Trigo, Ricardo M; Valente, Maria A; Trigo, Isabel F; Miranda, Pedro M A; Ramos, Alexandre M; Paredes, Daniel; García-Herrera, Ricardo

2008-12-01

An analysis of the frequency of cyclones and surface wind velocity for the Euro-Atlantic sector is performed by means of an objective methodology. Monthly and seasonal trends of cyclones and wind speed magnitude are computed and trends between 1960 and 2000 evaluated. Results reveal a significant frequency decrease (increase) in the western Mediterranean (Greenland and Scandinavia), particularly in December, February, and March. Seasonal and monthly analysis of wind magnitude trends shows similar spatial patterns. We show that these changes in the frequency of low-pressure centers and the associated wind patterns are partially responsible for trends in the significant height of waves. Throughout the extended winter months (October-March), regions with positive (negative) wind magnitude trends, of up to 5 cm/s/year, often correspond to regions of positive (negative) significant wave height trends. The cyclone and wind speed trends computed for January-March are well matched by the corresponding trends in significant wave height, with February being the month with the highest trends (negative south of lat 50 degrees N up to -3 cm/year, and positive up to 5 cm/year just north of Scotland). Trends in European precipitation are assessed using the Climatic Research Unit data set. The results of the assessment emphasize the link with the corresponding tendencies of cyclone frequencies. Finally, it is shown that these changes are associated, to a large extent, with the preferred phases of major large-scale atmospheric circulation modes, particularly with the North Atlantic Oscillation, the eastern Atlantic pattern, and the Scandinavian pattern.

Chapter 7: Precipitation Change in the United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Easterling, D. R.; Kunkel, K. E.; Arnold, J. R.; Knutson, T.; LeGrande, A. N.; Leung, L. R.; Vose, R. S.; Waliser, D. E.; Wehner, M. F.

2017-01-01

Annual precipitation has decreased in much of the West, Southwest, and Southeast and increased in most of the Northern and Southern Plains, Midwest, and Northeast. A national average increase of 4% in annual precipitation since 1901 is mostly a result of large increases in the fall season. Heavy precipitation events in most parts of the United States have increased in both intensity and frequency since 1901. There are important regional differences in trends, with the largest increases occurring in the northeastern United States. In particular, mesoscale convective systems (organized clusters of thunderstorms)-the main mechanism for warm season precipitation in the central part of the United States-have increased in occurrence and precipitation amounts since 1979. The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events are projected to continue to increase over the 21st century (high confidence). Mesoscale convective systems in the central United States are expected to continue to increase in number and intensity in the future. There are, however, important regional and seasonal differences in projected changes in total precipitation: the northern United States, including Alaska, is projected to receive more precipitation in the winter and spring, and parts of the southwestern United States are projected to receive less precipitation in the winter and spring. Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover extent, North America maximum snow depth, snow water equivalent in the western United States, and extreme snowfall years in the southern and western United States have all declined, while extreme snowfall years in parts of the northern United States have increased. Projections indicate large declines in snowpack in the western United States and shifts to more precipitation falling as rain than snow in the cold season in many parts of the central and eastern United States.

Modeled future peak streamflows in four coastal Maine rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Dudley, Robert W.

2013-01-01

To safely and economically design bridges and culverts, it is necessary to compute the magnitude of peak streamflows that have specified annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs). Annual precipitation and air temperature in the northeastern United States are, in general, projected to increase during the 21st century. It is therefore important for engineers and resource managers to understand how peak flows may change in the future. This report, prepared in cooperation with the Maine Department of Transportation (MaineDOT), presents modeled changes in peak flows at four basins in coastal Maine on the basis of projected changes in air temperature and precipitation. To estimate future peak streamflows at the four basins in this study, historical values for climate (temperature and precipitation) in the basins were adjusted by different amounts and input to a hydrologic model of each study basin. To encompass the projected changes in climate in coastal Maine by the end of the 21st century, air temperatures were adjusted by four different amounts, from -3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (ºF) (-2 degrees Celsius (ºC)) to +10.8 ºF (+6 ºC) of observed temperatures. Precipitation was adjusted by three different percentage values from -15 percent to +30 percent of observed precipitation. The resulting 20 combinations of temperature and precipitation changes (includes the no-change scenarios) were input to Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) watershed models, and annual daily maximum peak flows were calculated for each combination. Modeled peak flows from the adjusted changes in temperature and precipitation were compared to unadjusted (historical) modeled peak flows. Annual daily maximum peak flows increase or decrease, depending on whether temperature or precipitation is adjusted; increases in air temperature (with no change in precipitation) lead to decreases in peak flows, whereas increases in precipitation (with no change in temperature) lead to increases in peak flows. As the magnitude of air temperatures increase in the four basins, peak flows decrease by larger amounts. If precipitation is held constant (no change from historical values), 17 to 26 percent decreases in peak flow occur at the four basins when temperature is increased by 7.2°F. If temperature is held constant, 26 to 38 percent increases in peak flow result from a 15-percent increase in precipitation. The largest decreases in peak flows at the four basins result from 15-percent decreases in precipitation combined with temperature increases of 10.8°F. The largest increases in peak flows generally result from 30-percent increases in precipitation combined with 3.6 °F decreases in temperatures. In many cases when temperature and precipitation both increase, small increases or decreases in annual daily maximum peak flows result. For likely changes projected for the northeastern United States for the middle of the 21st century (temperature increase of 3.6 °F and precipitation increases of 0 to 15 percent), peak-flow changes at the four coastal Maine basins in this study are modeled to be evenly distributed between increases and decreases of less than 25 percent. Peak flows with 50-percent and 1-percent AEPs (equivalent to 2-year and 100-year recurrence interval peak flows, respectively) were calculated for the four basins in the study using the PRMS-modeled annual daily maximum peak flows. Modeled peak flows with 50-percent and 1-percent AEPs with adjusted temperatures and precipitation were compared to unadjusted (historical) modeled values. Changes in peak flows with 50-percent AEPs are similar to changes in annual daily maximum peak flow; changes in peak flows with 1-percent AEPs are similar in pattern to changes in annual daily maximum peak flow, but some of the changes associated with increasing precipitation are much larger than changes in annual daily maximum peak flow. Substantial decreases in maximum annual winter snowpack water equivalent are modeled to occur with increasing air temperatures at the four basins in the study. (Snowpack is the snow on the ground that accumulates during a winter, and water equivalent is the amount of water in a snowpack if it were melted.) The decrease in modeled peak flows with increasing air temperature, given no change in precipitation amount, is likely caused by these decreases in winter snowpack and resulting decreases in snowmelt runoff. This Scientific Investigations Report, prepared in cooperation with the Maine Department of Transportation, presents a summary of modeled changes in peak flows at four basins in coastal Maine on the basis of projected changes in air temperature and precipitation. The full Fact Sheet (Hodgkins and Dudley, 2013) is available at http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2013/3021/.

Assessing vegetation structure and ANPP dynamics in a grassland-shrubland Chihuahuan ecotone using NDVI-rainfall relationships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moreno-de las Heras, M.; Diaz-Sierra, R.; Turnbull, L.; Wainwright, J.

2015-01-01

Climate change and the widespread alteration of natural habitats are major drivers of vegetation change in drylands. A classic case of vegetation change is the shrub-encroachment process that has been taking place over the last 150 years in the Chihuahuan Desert, where large areas of grasslands dominated by perennial grass species (black grama, Bouteloua eriopoda, and blue grama, B. gracilis) have transitioned to shrublands dominated by woody species (creosotebush, Larrea tridentata, and mesquite, Prosopis glandulosa), accompanied by accelerated water and wind erosion. Multiple mechanisms drive the shrub-encroachment process, including exogenous triggering factors such as precipitation variations and land-use change, and endogenous amplifying mechanisms brought about by soil erosion-vegetation feedbacks. In this study, simulations of plant biomass dynamics with a simple modelling framework indicate that herbaceous (grasses and forbs) and shrub vegetation in drylands have different responses to antecedent precipitation due to functional differences in plant growth and water-use patterns, and therefore shrub encroachment may be reflected in the analysis of landscape-scale vegetation-rainfall relationships. We analyze the structure and dynamics of vegetation at an 18 km2 grassland-shrubland ecotone in the northern edge of the Chihuahuan Desert (McKenzie Flats, Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge, NM, USA) by investigating the relationship between decade-scale (2000-2013) records of medium-resolution remote sensing of vegetation greenness (MODIS NDVI) and precipitation. Spatial evaluation of NDVI-rainfall relationship at the studied ecotone indicates that herbaceous vegetation shows quick growth pulses associated with short-term (previous 2 months) precipitation, while shrubs show a slow response to medium-term (previous 5 months) precipitation. We use these relationships to (a) classify landscape types as a function of the spatial distribution of dominant vegetation, and to (b) decompose the NDVI signal into partial primary production components for herbaceous vegetation and shrubs across the study site. We further apply remote-sensed annual net primary production (ANPP) estimations and landscape type classification to explore the influence of inter-annual variations in seasonal precipitation on the production of herbaceous and shrub vegetation. Our results suggest that changes in the amount and temporal pattern of precipitation comprising reductions in monsoonal summer rainfall and/or increases in winter precipitation may enhance the shrub-encroachment process in desert grasslands of the American Southwest.

Changing Precipitation Patterns or Waning Glaciers? Identifying Water Supply Vulnerabilities to Climate Change in the Bolivian Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guido, Z. S.; McIntosh, J. C.; Papuga, S. A.

2010-12-01

The Bolivian Andes have become an iconic example for the impacts of climate change. Glaciers are rapidly melting and some have already completely disappeared. More than 75 percent of the water consumed by 2 million people living on the flanks of the Bolivian Andes comes from mountains and it is often cited that the dwindling ice threatens the water supply of the expanding and destitute population living in the twin cities of La Paz and El Alto. However, the wet and the warm seasons and the cold and dry seasons coincide, causing high precipitation and ice melt—and therefore high streamflows—to occur only in the austral summer (October-March); during the austral winter, cold conditions limit glacier melt. This suggests that reductions in the water supply could be influenced more by changing precipitation amounts than continued glacial mass-wasting. We hypothesize that precipitation is the principal component of groundwater recharge for the aquifers at the base of the central Cordillera Real. Oxygen and hydrogen isotopes from rivers partially fed by glaciers, groundwater, and glacial melt water can help determine the relative contribution of precipitation and glacial melt to important water supplies. During the dry season in August 2010, we sampled 23 sites that follow the flow path of water in the Condiriri watershed, beginning in the glacial headwaters and ending several kilometers upriver from Lake Titicaca. We collected five samples at the toe of the Pequeño Alpamayo glacier and four samples from three tributary rivers that drain glaciated headwaters, which include meltwater from the Pequeño Alpamayo glacier. W also collected 14 water samples from shallow and deep wells in rural communities within 40 kilometers of the glaciers. If the isotopic values of groundwater are similar to rain values, as we suspect, precipitation is likely the largest contributor to groundwater resources in the region and will suggest that changing precipitation patterns present the greatest climate change risk to water supply. Identifying the key climate vulnerability will inform effective adaptation and water management policies, which may include increasing the watersheds capacity to capture and divert wet season precipitation. It will also inform future research, which may involve age dating water, developing local adaptation plans, and improving climate and streamflow monitoring.

Nitrate Leaching from Winter Cereal Cover Crops Using Undisturbed Soil-Column Lysimeters.

PubMed

Meisinger, John J; Ricigliano, Kristin A

2017-05-01

Cover crops are important management practices for reducing nitrogen (N) leaching, especially in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, which is under total maximum daily load (TMDL) restraints. Winter cereals are common cool-season crops in the Bay watershed, but studies have not directly compared nitrate-N (NO-N) leaching losses from these species. A 3-yr cover crop lysimeter study was conducted in Beltsville, MD, to directly compare NO-N leaching from a commonly grown cultivar of barley ( L.), rye ( L.), and wheat ( L.), along with a no-cover control, using eight tension-drained undisturbed soil column lysimeters in a completely randomized design with two replicates. The lysimeters were configured to exclude runoff and to estimate NO-N leaching and flow-weighted NO-N concentration (FWNC). The temporal pattern of NO-N leaching showed a consistent highly significant ( < 0.001) effect of lower NO-N leaching with cover crops compared with no cover but showed only small and periodically significant ( < 0.05) effects among the cultivars of barley, rye, and wheat covers. Nitrate-N leaching was more affected by the quantity of establishment-season (mid-October to mid-December) precipitation than by cover crop species. For example, compared with no cover, winter cereal covers reduced NO-N leaching 95% in a dry year and 50% in wet years, with corresponding reductions in FWNC of 92 and 43%, respectively. These results are important for scientists, nutrient managers, and policymakers because they directly compare NO-N leaching from winter cereal covers and expand knowledge for developing management practices for winter cereals that can improve water quality and increase N efficiency in cropping systems. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Ecology of playa lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haukos, David A.; Smith, Loren M.

1992-01-01

Between 25,000 and 30,000 playa lakes are in the playa lakes region of the southern high plains (Fig. 1). Most playas are in west Texas (about 20,000), and fewer, in New Mexico, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Colorado. The playa lakes region is one of the most intensively cultivated areas of North America. Dominant crops range from cotton in southern areas to cereal grains in the north. Therefore, most of the native short-grass prairie is gone, replaced by crops and, recently, grasses of the Conservation Reserve Program. Playas are the predominant wetlands and major wildlife habitat of the region.More than 115 bird species, including 20 species of waterfowl, and 10 mammal species have been documented in playas. Waterfowl nest in the area, producing up to 250,000 ducklings in wetter years. Dominant breeding and nesting species are mallards and blue-winged teals. During the very protracted breeding season, birds hatch from April through August. Several million shorebirds and waterfowl migrate through the area each spring and fall. More than 400,000 sandhill cranes migrate through and winter in the region, concentrating primarily on the larger saline lakes in the southern portion of the playa lakes region.The primary importance of the playa lakes region to waterfowl is as a wintering area. Wintering waterfowl populations in the playa lakes region range from 1 to 3 million birds, depending on fall precipitation patterns that determine the number of flooded playas. The most common wintering ducks are mallards, northern pintails, green-winged teals, and American wigeons. About 500,000 Canada geese and 100,000 lesser snow geese winter in the playa lakes region, and numbers of geese have increased annually since the early 1980’s. This chapter describes the physiography and ecology of playa lakes and their attributes that benefit waterfowl.

Water, ice, meteorological, and speed measurements at South Cascade Glacier, Washington, 1999 balance year

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krimmel, Robert M.

2001-01-01

Winter snow accumulation and summer snow, firn, and ice melt were measured at South Cascade Glacier, Washington, to determine the winter and net balances for the 1999 balance year. The 1999 winter snow balance, averaged over the glacier, was 3.59 meters, and the net balance was 1.02 meters. Since the winter balance record began in 1959, only three winters have had a higher winter balance. Since the net balance record began in 1953, only 2 years have had a greater positive net balance than 1999. Runoff was measured from the glacier and an adjacent non-glacierized basin. Air temperature, precipitation, and humidity were measured nearby, and ice speed was measured. This report makes these data available to the glaciological and climatological community.

Strong signatures of high-latitude blocks and subtropical ridges in winter PM10 over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ordonez, C.; Garrido-Perez, J. M.; Garcia-Herrera, R.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric blocking is associated with persistent, slow-moving high pressure systems that interrupt the eastward progress of extratropical storm systems at middle and high latitudes. Subtropical ridges are low latitude structures manifested as bands of positive geopotential height anomalies extending from sub-tropical latitudes towards extra-tropical regions. We have quantified the impact of blocks and ridges on daily PM10 (particulate matter ≤ 10 µm) observations obtained from the European Environment Agency's air quality database (AirBase) for the winter period of 2000-2010. For this purpose, the response of the PM10 concentrations to the location of blocks and ridges with centres in two main longitudinal sectors (Atlantic, ATL, 30˚-0˚ W; European, EUR, 0˚-30˚ E) is examined. EUR blocking is associated with a collapse of the boundary layer as well as reduced wind speeds and precipitation occurrence, yielding large positive anomalies which average 12 µg m-3 over the whole continent. Conversely, the enhanced zonal flow around 50˚-60˚ N and the increased occurrence of precipitation over northern-central Europe on days with ATL ridges favour the ventilation of the boundary layer and the impact of washout processes, reducing PM10 concentrations on average by around 8 µg m-3. The presence of EUR blocks is also concurrent with an increased probability of exceeding the European air quality target (50 µg m-3 for 24-h averaged PM10) and the local 90th percentiles for this pollutant at many sites, while the opposite effect is found for ridges. In addition, the effect of synoptic persistence on the PM10 concentrations is particularly strong for EUR blocks. Finally, we have found that the effect of both synoptic patterns can partly control the interannual variability of winter mean PM10 at many sites of north-western and central Europe, with coefficients of determination (R2) exceeding 0.80 for southern Germany. These results indicate that the response of the particulate matter (PM) concentrations to large-scale circulation patterns is stronger than previously reported for Europe and other mid-latitude regions. These findings can be exploited in the future to evaluate the modelled response of air quality to circulation changes within chemical transport models (CTMs) and chemistry-climate models (CCMs).

Empirical Modeling of Planetary Boundary Layer Dynamics Under Multiple Precipitation Scenarios Using a Two-Layer Soil Moisture Approach: An Example From a Semiarid Shrubland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez-Mejia, Zulia Mayari; Papuga, Shirley A.

2017-11-01

In semiarid regions, where water resources are limited and precipitation dynamics are changing, understanding land surface-atmosphere interactions that regulate the coupled soil moisture-precipitation system is key for resource management and planning. We present a modeling approach to study soil moisture and albedo controls on planetary boundary layer height (PBLh). We used Santa Rita Creosote Ameriflux and Tucson Airport atmospheric sounding data to generate empirical relationships between soil moisture, albedo, and PBLh. Empirical relationships showed that ˜50% of the variation in PBLh can be explained by soil moisture and albedo with additional knowledge gained by dividing the soil profile into two layers. Therefore, we coupled these empirical relationships with soil moisture estimated using a two-layer bucket approach to model PBLh under six precipitation scenarios. Overall we observed that decreases in precipitation tend to limit the recovery of the PBL at the end of the wet season. However, increases in winter precipitation despite decreases in summer precipitation may provide opportunities for positive feedbacks that may further generate more winter precipitation. Our results highlight that the response of soil moisture, albedo, and the PBLh will depend not only on changes in annual precipitation, but also on the frequency and intensity of this change. We argue that because albedo and soil moisture data are readily available at multiple temporal and spatial scales, developing empirical relationships that can be used in land surface-atmosphere applications have great potential for exploring the consequences of climate change.

Two Dimensional Movement Patterns of Juvenile Winter Run and Late Fall Run Chinook Salmon at the Fremont Weir, Sacramento River, CA

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-07-01

ER D C/ EL T R- 17 -1 0 Two-Dimensional Movement Patterns of Juvenile Winter- Run and Late-Fall- Run Chinook Salmon at the Fremont Weir...default. ERDC/EL TR-17-10 July 2017 Two-Dimensional Movement Patterns of Juvenile Winter- Run and Late-Fall- Run Chinook Salmon at the Fremont Weir...Sacramento River, smaller winter- run Chinook and larger late-fall- run Chinook salmon were tagged and released into a 2D telemetry array dur- ing the

A Winter Distribution Model for Bicknell’s Thrush (Catharus bicknelli), a Conservation Tool for a Threatened Migratory Songbird

PubMed Central

McFarland, Kent P.; Rimmer, Christopher C.; Goetz, James E.; Aubry, Yves; Wunderle, Joseph M.; Sutton, Anne; Townsend, Jason M.; Sosa, Alejandro Llanes; Kirkconnell, Arturo

2013-01-01

Conservation planning and implementation require identifying pertinent habitats and locations where protection and management may improve viability of targeted species. The winter range of Bicknell’s Thrush (Catharus bicknelli), a threatened Nearctic-Neotropical migratory songbird, is restricted to the Greater Antilles. We analyzed winter records from the mid-1970s to 2009 to quantitatively evaluate winter distribution and habitat selection. Additionally, we conducted targeted surveys in Jamaica (n = 433), Cuba (n = 363), Dominican Republic (n = 1,000), Haiti (n = 131) and Puerto Rico (n = 242) yielding 179 sites with thrush presence. We modeled Bicknell’s Thrush winter habitat selection and distribution in the Greater Antilles in Maxent version 3.3.1. using environmental predictors represented in 30 arc second study area rasters. These included nine landform, land cover and climatic variables that were thought a priori to have potentially high predictive power. We used the average training gain from ten model runs to select the best subset of predictors. Total winter precipitation, aspect and land cover, particularly broadleaf forests, emerged as important variables. A five-variable model that contained land cover, winter precipitation, aspect, slope, and elevation was the most parsimonious and not significantly different than the models with more variables. We used the best fitting model to depict potential winter habitat. Using the 10 percentile threshold (>0.25), we estimated winter habitat to cover 33,170 km2, nearly 10% of the study area. The Dominican Republic contained half of all potential habitat (51%), followed by Cuba (15.1%), Jamaica (13.5%), Haiti (10.6%), and Puerto Rico (9.9%). Nearly one-third of the range was found to be in protected areas. By providing the first detailed predictive map of Bicknell’s Thrush winter distribution, our study provides a useful tool to prioritize and direct conservation planning for this and other wet, broadleaf forest specialists in the Greater Antilles. PMID:23326554

Projecting distribution of the overwintering population of Sogatella furcifera (Hemiptera: Delphacidae), in Yunnan, China with analysis on key influencing climatic factors.

PubMed

Hu, Shao-Ji; Liu, Xiao-Fei; Fu, Da-Ying; Huang, Wei; Wang, Xue-Ying; Liu, Xiao-Jun; Lü, Jian-Ping; Ye, Hui

2015-01-01

Sogatella furcifera (Horváth) is the most threatening migratory rice pest in Yunnan, China. S. furcifera overwinters in low- altitude basins and valleys in southern Yunnan and migrates northward in spring and summer of the following year, causing serious damage during migration. The overwintering distribution, areas, and spatial pattern of S. furcifera are relevant to the migration and outbreak of this pest. Based on a 4-yr field survey (2010-2013), this study projected areas suitable for S. furcifera to overwinter using a species distribution model, and analyzed the key influencing climatic factors using principal component analysis (PCA) and ecological niche factor analysis (ENFA). Our field survey showed that the northern latitudinal- and upper elevation limits of overwintering S. furcifera was 25.4° N and 1,608 m in western Yunnan and 24.2° N and 1,563 m in eastern Yunnan. The species distribution model produced a fragmented distribution pattern, with most of which in western Yunnan and only a few in eastern Yunnan. The PCA and ENFA analyses showed that the mean temperature of the driest quarter and the precipitation of the coldest quarter significantly influenced the distribution of S. furcifera in winter. The results suggested that the complex topography, spatial differences in winter temperatures, and host availability altogether determined the distribution of overwintering S. furcifera. Compared with previous surveys, the northern latitudinal- and upper elevation limits of overwintering S. furcifera were higher, while the population became rarer in some suitable areas due to change of farmland utilization in winter and possibly climate change. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Entomological Society of America.

Recent improvement and projected worsening of weather in the United States.

PubMed

Egan, Patrick J; Mullin, Megan

2016-04-21

As climate change unfolds, weather systems in the United States have been shifting in patterns that vary across regions and seasons. Climate science research typically assesses these changes by examining individual weather indicators, such as temperature or precipitation, in isolation, and averaging their values across the spatial surface. As a result, little is known about population exposure to changes in weather and how people experience and evaluate these changes considered together. Here we show that in the United States from 1974 to 2013, the weather conditions experienced by the vast majority of the population improved. Using previous research on how weather affects local population growth to develop an index of people’s weather preferences, we find that 80% of Americans live in counties that are experiencing more pleasant weather than they did four decades ago. Virtually all Americans are now experiencing the much milder winters that they typically prefer, and these mild winters have not been offset by markedly more uncomfortable summers or other negative changes. Climate change models predict that this trend is temporary, however, because US summers will eventually warm more than winters. Under a scenario in which greenhouse gas emissions proceed at an unabated rate (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), we estimate that 88% of the US public will experience weather at the end of the century that is less preferable than weather in the recent past. Our results have implications for the public’s understanding of the climate change problem, which is shaped in part by experiences with local weather. Whereas weather patterns in recent decades have served as a poor source of motivation for Americans to demand a policy response to climate change, public concern may rise once people’s everyday experiences of climate change effects start to become less pleasant.

Pooled versus separate tree-ring δD measurements, and implications for reconstruction of the Arctic Oscillation in northwestern China.

PubMed

Liu, Xiaohong; An, Wenling; Treydte, Kerstin; Wang, Wenzhi; Xu, Guobao; Zeng, Xiaomin; Wu, Guoju; Wang, Bo; Zhang, Xuanwen

2015-04-01

Stable hydrogen isotope ratios (δD) in tree rings are an attractive but still rarely explored terrestrial archive of past climatic information. Because the preparation of the cellulose nitrate for δD measurements requires more wood and a longer preparation time than preparation techniques for other isotopes in cellulose (δ18O or δ13C), it is challenging to obtain high-resolution records, especially for slow-growing trees at high elevations and in boreal regions. Here, we tested whether annually pooled samples of Qinghai spruce (Picea crassifolia Kom.) trees from northwestern China provided results similar to those derived as the mean of individual measurements of the same trees and whether the resulting chronologies recorded useful climate information. Inter-tree variability of δD was higher than that of measured ring width for the same trees. We found higher and significant coherence between pooled and mean isotope chronologies than that among the individual series. It showed a logarithmic relationship between ring mass and δD; however, accounting for the influence of ring mass on δD values only slightly improved the strength of climatic signals in the pooled records. Tree-ring δD was significantly positively correlated with the mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures during the previous winter and with maximum temperature during the current August, and significantly negatively correlated with precipitation in the previous November to January and the current July. The winter climate signal seems to dominate tree-ring δD through the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, i.e. the Arctic Oscillation. These results will facilitate reconstruction of winter atmospheric circulation patterns over northwestern China based on a regional tree-ring δD networks. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nitrogen deposition in precipitation to a monsoon-affected eutrophic embayment: Fluxes, sources, and processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Yunchao; Zhang, Jingping; Liu, Songlin; Jiang, Zhijian; Arbi, Iman; Huang, Xiaoping; Macreadie, Peter Ian

2018-06-01

Daya Bay in the South China Sea (SCS) has experienced rapid nitrogen pollution and intensified eutrophication in the past decade due to economic development. Here, we estimated the deposition fluxes of nitrogenous species, clarified the contribution of nitrogen from precipitation and measured ions and isotopic composition (δ15N and δ18O) of nitrate in precipitation in one year period to trace its sources and formation processes among different seasons. We found that the deposition fluxes of total dissolved nitrogen (TDN), NO3-, NH4+, NO2-, and dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) to Daya Bay were 132.5, 64.4 17.5, 1.0, 49.6 mmol m-2•yr-1, respectively. DON was a significant contributor to nitrogen deposition (37% of TDN), and NO3- accounted for 78% of the DIN in precipitation. The nitrogen deposition fluxes were higher in spring and summer, and lower in winter. Nitrogen from precipitation contributed nearly 38% of the total input of nitrogen (point sources input and dry and wet deposition) in Daya Bay. The δ15N-NO3- abundance, ion compositions, and air mass backward trajectories implicated that coal combustion, vehicle exhausts, and dust from mainland China delivered by northeast monsoon were the main sources in winter, while fossil fuel combustion (coal combustion and vehicle exhausts) and dust from PRD and southeast Asia transported by southwest monsoon were the main sources in spring; marine sources, vehicle exhausts and lightning could be the potential sources in summer. δ18O results showed that OH pathway was dominant in the chemical formation process of nitrate in summer, while N2O5+ DMS/HC pathways in winter and spring.

Forecasting and modelling ice layer formation on the snowpack due to freezing precipitations in the Pyrenees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quéno, Louis; Vionnet, Vincent; Cabot, Frédéric; Vrécourt, Dominique; Dombrowski-Etchevers, Ingrid

2017-04-01

In the Pyrenees, freezing precipitations in altitude occur at least once per winter, leading to the formation of a pure ice layer on the surface of the snowpack. It may lead to accidents and fatalities among mountaineers and skiers, with sometimes a higher human toll than avalanches. Such events are not predicted by the current operational systems for snow and avalanche hazard forecasting. A crowd-sourced database of surface ice layer occurrences is first built up, using reports from Internet mountaineering and ski-touring communities, to mitigate the lack of observations from conventional observation networks. A simple diagnostic of freezing precipitation is then developed, based on the cloud water content and screen temperature forecast by the Numerical Weather Prediction model AROME, operating at 2.5-km resolution. The performance of this diagnostic is assessed for the event of 5-6 January 2012, with a good representation of altitudinal and spatial distributions of the ice layer. An evaluation of the diagnostic for major events over five winters gives good skills of detection compared to the occurrences reported in the observation database. A new modelling of ice formation on the surface of the snowpack due to impinging supercooled water is added to the detailed snowpack model Crocus. It is combined to the atmospheric diagnostic of freezing precipitations and resulting snowpack simulations over a winter season capture well the formation of the main ice layers. Their influence on the snowpack stratigraphy is also realistically simulated. These simple methods enable to forecast the occurrence of surface ice layer formations with good confidence and to simulate their evolution within the snowpack, even if an accurate estimation of freezing precipitation amounts remains the main challenge.

A Deglacial and Holocene Record of Climate Variability in South-Central Alaska from Stable Oxygen Isotopes and Plant Macrofossils in Peat

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Miriam C.; Wooller, Matthew; Peteet, Dorothy M.

2014-01-01

We used stable oxygen isotopes derived from bulk peat (delta-O-18(sub TOM) in conjunction with plant macrofossils and previously published carbon accumulation records, in a approximately14,500 cal yr BP peat core (HT Fen) from the Kenai lowlands in south-central Alaska to reconstruct the climate history of the area. We find that patterns are broadly consistent with those from lacustrine records across the region, and agree with the interpretation that major shifts in delta-O-18(sub TOM) values indicate changes in strength and position of the Aleutian Low (AL), a semi-permanent low-pressure cell that delivers winter moisture to the region. We find decreased strength or a more westerly position of the AL (relatively higher delta-O-18(sub TOM) values) during the Bolling-Allerod, Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM), and late Holocene, which also correspond to warmer climate regimes. These intervals coincide with greater peat preservation and enhanced carbon (C) accumulation rates at the HT Fen and with peatland expansion across Alaska. The HTM in particular may have experienced greater summer precipitation as a result of an enhanced Pacific subtropical high, a pattern consistent with modern delta-O-18 values for summer precipitation. The combined warm summer temperatures and greater summer precipitation helped promote the observed rapid peat accumulation. A strengthened AL (relatively lower delta-O-18(sub TOM) values) is most evident during the Younger Dryas, Neoglaciation, and the Little Ice Age, consistent with lower peat preservation and C accumulation at the HT Fen, suggesting less precipitation reaches the leeward side of the Kenai Mountains during periods of enhanced AL strength. The peatlands on the Kenai Peninsula thrive when the AL is weak and the contribution of summer precipitation is higher, highlighting the importance of precipitation seasonality in promoting peat accumulation. This study demonstrates that delta-O-18(sub TOM) values in peat can be applied toward understand large-scale shifts in atmospheric circulation over millennial timescales.

Winter movement dynamics of Black Brant

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lindberg, Mark S.; Ward, David H.; Tibbitts, T. Lee; Roser, John

2007-01-01

Although North American geese are managed based on their breeding distributions, the dynamics of those breeding populations may be affected by events that occur during the winter. Birth rates of capital breeding geese may be influenced by wintering conditions, mortality may be influenced by timing of migration and wintering distribution, and immigration and emigration among breeding populations may depend on winter movement and timing of pair formation. We examined factors affecting movements of black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) among their primary wintering sites in Mexico and southern California, USA, (Mar 1998-Mar 2000) using capture-recapture models. Although brant exhibited high probability (>0.85) of monthly and annual fidelity to the wintering sites we sampled, we observed movements among all wintering sites. Movement probabilities both within and among winters were negatively related to distance between sites. We observed a higher probability both of southward movement between winters (Mar to Dec) and northward movement between months within winters. Between-winter movements were probably most strongly affected by spatial and temporal variation in habitat quality as we saw movement patterns consistent with contrasting environmental conditions (e.g., La Niña and El Niño southern oscillation cycles). Month-to-month movements were related to migration patterns and may also have been affected by differences in habitat conditions among sites. Patterns of winter movements indicate that a network of wintering sites may be necessary for effective conservation of brant.

Winter movement dynamics of black brant

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lindberg, Mark S.; Ward, David H.; Tibbitts, T. Lee; Roser, John

2007-01-01

Although North American geese are managed based on their breeding distributions, the dynamics of those breeding populations may be affected by events that occur during the winter. Birth rates of capital breeding geese may be influenced by wintering conditions, mortality may be influenced by timing of migration and wintering distribution, and immigration and emigration among breeding populations may depend on winter movement and timing of pair formation. We examined factors affecting movements of black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) among their primary wintering sites in Mexico and southern California, USA, (Mar 1998–Mar 2000) using capture–recapture models. Although brant exhibited high probability (>0.85) of monthly and annual fidelity to the wintering sites we sampled, we observed movements among all wintering sites. Movement probabilities both within and among winters were negatively related to distance between sites. We observed a higher probability both of southward movement between winters (Mar to Dec) and northward movement between months within winters. Between-winter movements were probably most strongly affected by spatial and temporal variation in habitat quality as we saw movement patterns consistent with contrasting environmental conditions (e.g., La Niña and El Niño southern oscillation cycles). Month-to-month movements were related to migration patterns and may also have been affected by differences in habitat conditions among sites. Patterns of winter movements indicate that a network of wintering sites may be necessary for effective conservation of brant.

Modelling extreme dry spells in the Mediterranean region in connection with atmospheric circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tramblay, Yves; Hertig, Elke

2018-04-01

Long droughts periods can affect the Mediterranean region during the winter season, when most of annual precipitation occurs, and consequently have strong impacts on agriculture, groundwater levels and water resources. The goal of this study is to model annual maximum dry spells lengths (AMDSL) that occur during the extended winter season (October to April). The spatial patterns of extreme dry spells and their relationships with large-scale atmospheric circulation were first investigated. Then, AMDSL were modelled using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions incorporating climatic covariates, to evaluate the dependences of extreme dry spells to synoptic patterns using an analogue approach. The data from a network of 160 rain gauges having daily precipitation measurements between 1960 and 2009 are considered together with the ERA-20C reanalysis of the 20th century to provide atmospheric variables (geopotential heights, humidity, winds). A regional classification of both the occurrence and the duration of AMDSL helped to distinguish three spatially contiguous regions in which the regional distributions were found homogeneous. From composite analysis, significant positive anomalies in geopotential height (Z500) and negative anomalies in zonal wind (U850) and relative and specific humidity (S850, R850) were found to be associated with AMDSL in the three regions and provided the reference to build analogue days. Finally, non-stationary GEV models have been compared, in which the location and scale parameters are related to different atmospheric indices. Results indicates, at the whole Mediterranean scale, that positives anomalies of the North Atlantic Oscillation index and to a lesser extent the Mediterranean Oscillation index are linked to longer extreme dry spells in the majority of stations. For the three regions identified, the frequency of U850 negative anomalies over North Africa is significantly associated with the magnitude of AMDSL. AMDL are also associated with the frequency of S850 negative anomalies for the southeastern region, and with positive Z500 anomalies for the Western and North-eastern Mediterranean regions.

Climate change amplifies gross nitrogen turnover in montane grasslands of Central Europe in both summer and winter seasons.

PubMed

Wang, Changhui; Chen, Zhe; Unteregelsbacher, Sebastian; Lu, Haiyan; Gschwendtner, Silvia; Gasche, Rainer; Kolar, Allison; Schloter, Michael; Kiese, Ralf; Butterbach-Bahl, Klaus; Dannenmann, Michael

2016-09-01

The carbon- and nitrogen-rich soils of montane grasslands are exposed to above-average warming and to altered precipitation patterns as a result of global change. To investigate the consequences of climatic change for soil nitrogen turnover, we translocated intact plant-soil mesocosms along an elevational gradient, resulting in an increase of the mean annual temperature by approx. 2 °C while decreasing precipitation from approx. 1500 to 1000 mm. Following three years of equilibration, we monitored the dynamics of gross nitrogen turnover and ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB) and archaea (AOA) in soils over an entire year. Gross nitrogen turnover and gene levels of AOB and AOA showed pronounced seasonal dynamics. Both summer and winter periods equally contributed to cumulative annual N turnover. However, highest gross N turnover and abundance of ammonia oxidizers were observed in frozen soil of the climate change site, likely due to physical liberation of organic substrates and their rapid turnover in the unfrozen soil water film. This effect was not observed at the control site, where soil freezing did not occur due to a significant insulating snowpack. Climate change conditions accelerated gross nitrogen mineralization by 250% on average. Increased N mineralization significantly stimulated gross nitrification by AOB rather than by AOA. However, climate change impacts were restricted to the 2-6 cm topsoil and rarely occurred at 12-16 cm depth, where generally much lower N turnover was observed. Our study shows that significant mineralization pulses occur under changing climate, which is likely to result in soil organic matter losses with their associated negative impacts on key soil functions. We also show that N cycling processes in frozen soil can be hot moments for N turnover and thus are of paramount importance for understanding seasonal patterns, annual sum of N turnover and possible climate change feedbacks. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Seasonal changes and driving forces of inflow and outflow through the Bohai Strait

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Zhixin; Qiao, Fangli; Guo, Jingsong; Guo, Binghuo

2018-02-01

This work focuses on analyzing seasonal variation of inflow and outflow through the Bohai Strait that greatly affect the marine environment in the Bohai Sea, using observational data including sea bed mounted acoustic Doppler current profiler currents, CTD salinity data on deck, sea level anomalies of coastal tide gauge stations, and climatological monthly sea level anomalies from Archiving, Validation and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic data. Our results show three patterns of outflow and inflow through the Bohai Strait. The first is such that outflow and inflow occur respectively in the southern and northern parts of the strait, as in the traditional understanding. Our results suggest that this pattern occurs only in autumn and winter. Beginning in late September, Ekman currents driven by the northwesterly monsoon carry Bohai Sea water that piles up in the southern part of that sea and then exits eastward to the Yellow Sea. In this process, the pressure and current fields are continuously adjusted, until a quasi balance state between wind stress, Coriolis force and pressure gradient force is reached in winter. Inflow with a compensating property through the northern channel is close to the outflow through the southern channel in winter. The second pattern is a single inflow in spring, and the current and pressure fields are in adjustment. In early spring, the northwesterly monsoon ceases, Yellow Sea water enters the Bohai Sea under the pressure gradient force. With southeasterly monsoon establishment and strengthening, northern Yellow Sea water continually flows into the Bohai Sea and causes sea level rise northward. In the third pattern, outflow is much greater than inflow in summer. The currents run eastward in the central Bohai Sea and then enter the northern Yellow Sea through the northern channel and upper layer of the southern channel, while a westward current with a compensating property enters via the lower layer of the southern channel. Larger net transport is through the Bohai Strait to the northern Yellow Sea, which is related to strong precipitation and runoff into the Bohai Sea.

Snowflake Visualization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bliven, L. F.; Kucera, P. A.; Rodriguez, P.

2010-12-01

NASA Snowflake Video Imagers (SVIs) enable snowflake visualization at diverse field sites. The natural variability of frozen precipitation is a complicating factor for remote sensing retrievals in high latitude regions. Particle classification is important for understanding snow/ice physics, remote sensing polarimetry, bulk radiative properties, surface emissivity, and ultimately, precipitation rates and accumulations. Yet intermittent storms, low temperatures, high winds, remote locations and complex terrain can impede us from observing falling snow in situ. SVI hardware and software have some special features. The standard camera and optics yield 8-bit gray-scale images with resolution of 0.05 x 0.1 mm, at 60 frames per second. Gray-scale images are highly desirable because they display contrast that aids particle classification. Black and white (1-bit) systems display no contrast, so there is less information to recognize particle types, which is particularly burdensome for aggregates. Data are analyzed at one-minute intervals using NASA's Precipitation Link Software that produces (a) Particle Catalogs and (b) Particle Size Distributions (PSDs). SVIs can operate nearly continuously for long periods (e.g., an entire winter season), so natural variability can be documented. Let’s summarize results from field studies this past winter and review some recent SVI enhancements. During the winter of 2009-2010, SVIs were deployed at two sites. One SVI supported weather observations during the 2010 Winter Olympics and Paralympics. It was located close to the summit (Roundhouse) of Whistler Mountain, near the town of Whistler, British Columbia, Canada. In addition, two SVIs were located at the King City Weather Radar Station (WKR) near Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Access was prohibited to the SVI on Whistler Mountain during the Olympics due to security concerns. So to meet the schedule for daily data products, we operated the SVI by remote control. We also upgraded the Precipitation Link Software to allow operator selection of image sub-sampling interval during data processing. Thus quick-look data products were delivered on schedule, even for intense storms that generated large data files. Approximately 11 million snowflakes were recorded and we present highlights from the Particle Catalog and the PSDs obtained during the 2010 Winter Olympics and Paralympics. On the other hand, the SVIs at King Radar, Ontario had a standard resolution camera and a higher resolution camera (0.1 x 0.05 mm and 0.05 x 0.05 mm, respectively). The upgraded camera operated well. Using observations from the King Radar site, we will discuss camera durability and data products from the upgraded SVI. During the ’10-11 winter, a standard SVI is deployed in Finland as part of the Light Precipitation Validation Experiment. Two higher solution SVIs are also deployed in Canada at a field site ~30km from WKR, which will provide data for validation of radar polarization signatures and satellite observations.

Mid-latitude shrub steppe plant communities: climate change consequences for soil water resources.

PubMed

Palmquist, Kyle A; Schlaepfer, Daniel R; Bradford, John B; Lauenroth, William K

2016-09-01

In the coming century, climate change is projected to impact precipitation and temperature regimes worldwide, with especially large effects in drylands. We use big sagebrush ecosystems as a model dryland ecosystem to explore the impacts of altered climate on ecohydrology and the implications of those changes for big sagebrush plant communities using output from 10 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). We ask: (1) What is the magnitude of variability in future temperature and precipitation regimes among GCMs and RCPs for big sagebrush ecosystems, and (2) How will altered climate and uncertainty in climate forecasts influence key aspects of big sagebrush water balance? We explored these questions across 1980-2010, 2030-2060, and 2070-2100 to determine how changes in water balance might develop through the 21st century. We assessed ecohydrological variables at 898 sagebrush sites across the western US using a process-based soil water model, SOILWAT, to model all components of daily water balance using site-specific vegetation parameters and site-specific soil properties for multiple soil layers. Our modeling approach allowed for changes in vegetation based on climate. Temperature increased across all GCMs and RCPs, whereas changes in precipitation were more variable across GCMs. Winter and spring precipitation was predicted to increase in the future (7% by 2030-2060, 12% by 2070-2100), resulting in slight increases in soil water potential (SWP) in winter. Despite wetter winter soil conditions, SWP decreased in late spring and summer due to increased evapotranspiration (6% by 2030-2060, 10% by 2070-2100) and groundwater recharge (26% and 30% increase by 2030-2060 and 2070-2100). Thus, despite increased precipitation in the cold season, soils may dry out earlier in the year, resulting in potentially longer, drier summer conditions. If winter precipitation cannot offset drier summer conditions in the future, we expect big sagebrush regeneration and survival will be negatively impacted, potentially resulting in shifts in the relative abundance of big sagebrush plant functional groups. Our results also highlight the importance of assessing multiple GCMs to understand the range of climate change outcomes on ecohydrology, which was contingent on the GCM chosen. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Improving Seasonal Climate Predictability in the Colorado River Basin for Enhanced Decision Support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajagopal, S.; Mahmoud, M. I.

2016-12-01

The water resource management community is increasingly seeking skillful seasonal climate forecasts with long lead times. But predicting wet or dry climate with sufficient lead time (3 months) for a season (especially winter) in the Colorado River Basin (CRB) is a challenging problem. The typical approach taken to predicting winter climate is based on using climate indices and climate models to predict precipitation or streamflow in the Colorado River Basin. In addition to this approach; which may have a long lead time, water supply forecasts are also generated based on current observations by the Colorado River Forecast Center. Recently, the effects of coupled atmospheric-ocean phenomena such as ENSO over North America, and atmospheric circulation patterns at the 500 mb pressure level, which make the CRB wet or dry, have been studied separately. In the current work we test whether combining climate indices and circulation patterns improve predictability in the CRB. To accomplish this, the atmospheric circulation data from the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) and climate indices data from the Climate Prediction Center were combined using logical functions. To quantify the skill in prediction, statistics such as the hit ratio and false alarm ratio were computed. The results from using a combination of climate indices and atmospheric circulation patterns suggest that there is an improvement in the prediction skill with hit ratios higher than 0.8, as compared to using either predictor individually (which typically produced a hit ratio of 0.6). Based on this result, there is value in using this hybrid approach when compared to a black box statistical model, as the climate index is an analog to the moisture availability and the right atmospheric circulation pattern helps in transporting that moisture to the Basin.

Variation in piñon pine growth responses to climate across gradients of environmental stress using an individual-based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Redmond, M. D.; Kelsey, K.; Urza, A.; Barger, N. N.

2015-12-01

Forest and woodland ecosystems play a crucial role in the global carbon cycle and may be strongly affected by changing climate. Here we use an individual-based approach to model piñon pine (Pinus edulis) radial growth responses to climate across gradients of environmental stress. We sampled piñon pine trees at 24 sites across southwestern Colorado that varied in soil available water capacity, elevation, and latitude, obtaining a total of 552 pinon pine tree ring series. We used linear mixed effect models to assess piñon pine growth responses to climate and site-level environmental stress (mean annual climatic water deficit and soil available water capacity). Using a similar modeling approach, we also determined long-term growth trends across our gradients of environmental stress. Piñon pine growth was strongly positively associated with winter precipitation and strongly negatively associated with summer vapor pressure deficit. However, the strength of the relationship between winter precipitation and piñon pine growth was affected by site-level environmental stress. Trees at sites with greater climatic water deficit (i.e. hotter, drier sites) were more sensitive to winter precipitation. Interestingly, trees at sites with greater soil available water capacity were also more sensitive to winter precipitation, as these trees had much higher growth rates during years of high precipitation. We found weak evidence of long-term declines in piñon growth rates over the past century within our study area. Growth trends overtime did vary across our soil available water capacity gradient: trees growing at sites with higher soil available water capacity responded more positively to the cool, wet climate conditions of the 1910s and 1980s, whereas tree growth rates at sites with lower soil available water capacity declined more linearly over the last century. Our findings suggest that the sensitivity of woodland ecosystems to changing climate will vary across the landscape due to differences in edaphic and physiographic factors. These results support recent dendroecology studies that emphasize the need to use a more individual-based approach to enhance our understanding of tree growth responses to climate.

Changing precipitation pattern alters soil microbial community response to wet-up under a Mediterranean-type climate.

PubMed

Barnard, Romain L; Osborne, Catherine A; Firestone, Mary K

2015-03-17

A large soil CO2 pulse is associated with rewetting soils after the dry summer period under a Mediterranean-type climate, significantly contributing to grasslands' annual carbon budget. Rapid reactivation of soil heterotrophs and a pulse of available carbon are both required to fuel the CO2 pulse. Understanding of the effects of altered summer precipitation on the metabolic state of indigenous microorganisms may be important in predicting changes in carbon cycling. Here, we investigated the effects of extending winter rainfall into the normally dry summer period on soil microbial response to a controlled rewetting event, by following the present (DNA-based) and potentially active (rRNA-based) soil bacterial and fungal communities in intact soil cores (from a California annual grassland) previously subjected to three different precipitation patterns over 4 months (full summer dry season, extended wet season and absent dry season). Phylogenetic marker genes for bacteria and fungi were sequenced before and after rewetting, and the abundance of these genes and transcripts was measured. After having experienced markedly different antecedent water conditions, the potentially active bacterial communities showed a consistent wet-up response. We found a significant positive relation between the extent of change in the structure of the potentially active bacterial community and the magnitude of the CO2 pulse upon rewetting dry soils. We suggest that the duration of severe dry summer conditions characteristic of the Mediterranean climate is important in conditioning the response potential of the soil microbial community to wet-up as well as in framing the magnitude of the associated CO2 pulse.

Use of color maps and wavelet coherence to discern seasonal and interannual climate influences on streamflow variability in northern catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carey, Sean K.; Tetzlaff, Doerthe; Buttle, Jim; Laudon, Hjalmar; McDonnell, Jeff; McGuire, Kevin; Seibert, Jan; Soulsby, Chris; Shanley, Jamie

2013-10-01

The higher midlatitudes of the northern hemisphere are particularly sensitive to change due to the important role the 0°C isotherm plays in the phase of precipitation and intermediate storage as snow. An international intercatchment comparison program called North-Watch seeks to improve our understanding of the sensitivity of northern catchments to change by examining their hydrological and biogeochemical variability and response. Here eight North-Watch catchments located in Sweden (Krycklan), Scotland (Girnock and Strontian), the United States (Sleepers River, Hubbard Brook, and HJ Andrews), and Canada (Dorset and Wolf Creek) with 10 continuous years of daily precipitation and runoff data were selected to assess daily to seasonal coupling of precipitation (P) and runoff (Q) using wavelet coherency, and to explore the patterns and scales of variability in streamflow using color maps. Wavelet coherency revealed that P and Q were decoupled in catchments with cold winters, yet were strongly coupled during and immediately following the spring snowmelt freshet. In all catchments, coupling at shorter time scales occurred during wet periods when the catchment was responsive and storage deficits were small. At longer time scales, coupling reflected coherence between seasonal cycles, being enhanced at sites with enhanced seasonality in P. Color maps were applied as an alternative method to identify patterns and scales of flow variability. Seasonal versus transient flow variability was identified along with the persistence of that variability on influencing the flow regime. While exploratory in nature, this intercomparison exercise highlights the importance of climate and the 0°C isotherm on the functioning of northern catchments.

Maritime climate influence on chaparral composition and diversity in the coast range of central California.

PubMed

Vasey, Michael C; Parker, V Thomas; Holl, Karen D; Loik, Michael E; Hiatt, Seth

2014-09-01

We investigated the hypothesis that maritime climatic factors associated with summer fog and low cloud stratus (summer marine layer) help explain the compositional diversity of chaparral in the coast range of central California. We randomly sampled chaparral species composition in 0.1-hectare plots along a coast-to-interior gradient. For each plot, climatic variables were estimated and soil samples were analyzed. We used Cluster Analysis and Principle Components Analysis to objectively categorize plots into climate zone groups. Climate variables, vegetation composition and various diversity measures were compared across climate zone groups using ANOVA and nonmetric multidimensional scaling. Differences in climatic variables that relate to summer moisture availability and winter freeze events explained the majority of variance in measured conditions and coincided with three chaparral assemblages: maritime (lowland coast where the summer marine layer was strongest), transition (upland coast with mild summer marine layer influence and greater winter precipitation), and interior sites that generally lacked late summer water availability from either source. Species turnover (β-diversity) was higher among maritime and transition sites than interior sites. Coastal chaparral differs from interior chaparral in having a higher obligate seeder to facultative seeder (resprouter) ratio and by being dominated by various Arctostaphylos species as opposed to the interior dominant, Adenostoma fasciculatum. The maritime climate influence along the California central coast is associated with patterns of woody plant composition and β-diversity among sites. Summer fog in coastal lowlands and higher winter precipitation in coastal uplands combine to lower late dry season water deficit in coastal chaparral and contribute to longer fire return intervals that are associated with obligate seeders and more local endemism. Soil nutrients are comparatively less important in explaining plant community composition, but heterogeneous azonal soils contribute to local endemism and promote isolated chaparral patches within the dominant forest vegetation along the coast.

Two distinct patterns of seasonal variation of airborne black carbon over Tibetan Plateau

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Mo; Xu, Baiqing; Wang, Ninglian

Airborne black carbon (BC) mass concentrations were measured from November 2012 to June 2013 at Ranwu and Beiluhe, located in the southeastern and central Tibetan Plateau, respectively. Monthly mean BC concentrations showawinter (November–February) high (413.2 ng m $-$3) and spring (March–June) low(139.1 ng m $-$3) at Ranwu, but in contrast awinter lowand spring high at Beiluhe (204.8 and 621.6 ng m $-$3, respectively). By examining the meteorological conditions at various scales, we found that themonthly variation of airborne BC over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) was highly influenced by regional precipitation and over the hinterland by winds. Local precipitation atmore » both sites showed little impact on the seasonal variation of airborne BC concentrations. Potential BC source regions are identified using air mass backward trajectory analysis. At Ranwu, BC was dominated by the air masses from the northeastern India and Bangladesh in both winter and spring, whereas at Beiluhe it was largely contributed by air masses from the south slope of Himalayas in winter, and from the arid region in the north of the TP in spring. Thewinter and spring seasonal peak of BC in the southern TP is largely contributed by emissions from South Asia, and this seasonal variation is heavily influenced by the regional monsoon. In the northern TP, BC had high concentrations during spring and summer seasons, which is very likely associated with more efficient transport of BC over the arid regions on the north of Tibetan Plateau and in Central Asia. Airborne BC concentrations at the Ranwusampling site showed a significant diurnal cyclewith a peak shortly after sunrise followed by a decrease before noon in both winter and spring, likely shaped by local human activities and the diurnal variation of wind speed. At the Beiluhe sampling site, the diurnal variation of BC is different and less distinct.« less

Relating large-scale climate variability to local species abundance: ENSO forcing and shrimp in Breton Sound, Louisiana, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Piazza, Bryan P.; LaPeyre, Megan K.; Keim, B.D.

2010-01-01

Climate creates environmental constraints (filters) that affect the abundance and distribution of species. In estuaries, these constraints often result from variability in water flow properties and environmental conditions (i.e. water flow, salinity, water temperature) and can have significant effects on the abundance and distribution of commercially important nekton species. We investigated links between large-scale climate variability and juvenile brown shrimp Farfantepenaeus aztecus abundance in Breton Sound estuary, Louisiana (USA). Our goals were to (1) determine if a teleconnection exists between local juvenile brown shrimp abundance and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and (2) relate that linkage to environmental constraints that may affect juvenile brown shrimp recruitment to, and survival in, the estuary. Our results identified a teleconnection between winter ENSO conditions and juvenile brown shrimp abundance in Breton Sound estuary the following spring. The physical connection results from the impact of ENSO on winter weather conditions in Breton Sound (air pressure, temperature, and precipitation). Juvenile brown shrimp abundance effects lagged ENSO by 3 mo: lower than average abundances of juvenile brown shrimp were caught in springs following winter El Niño events, and higher than average abundances of brown shrimp were caught in springs following La Niña winters. Salinity was the dominant ENSO-forced environmental filter for juvenile brown shrimp. Spring salinity was cumulatively forced by winter river discharge, winter wind forcing, and spring precipitation. Thus, predicting brown shrimp abundance requires incorporating climate variability into models.

Evaluating satellite-derived long-term historical precipitation datasets for drought monitoring in Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zambrano, Francisco; Wardlow, Brian; Tadesse, Tsegaye

2016-10-01

Precipitation is a key parameter for the study of climate change and variability and the detection and monitoring of natural disaster such as drought. Precipitation datasets that accurately capture the amount and spatial variability of rainfall is critical for drought monitoring and a wide range of other climate applications. This is challenging in many parts of the world, which often have a limited number of weather stations and/or historical data records. Satellite-derived precipitation products offer a viable alternative with several remotely sensed precipitation datasets now available with long historical data records (+30 years), which include the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR) datasets. This study presents a comparative analysis of three historical satellite-based precipitation datasets that include Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B43 version 7 (1998-2015), PERSIANN-CDR (1983-2015) and CHIRPS 2.0 (1981-2015) over Chile to assess their performance across the country and evaluate their applicability for agricultural drought evaluation when used in the calculation of commonly used drought indicator as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). In this analysis, 278 weather stations of in-situ rainfall measurements across Chile were initially compared to the satellite-based precipitation estimates. The study area (Chile) was divided into five latitudinal zones: North, North-Central, Central, South-Central and South to determine if there were a regional difference among these satellite-based estimates. Nine statistics were used to evaluate the performance of satellite products to estimate the amount and spatial distribution of historical rainfall across Chile. Hierarchical cluster analysis, k-means and singular value decomposition were used to analyze these datasets to better understand their similarities and differences in characterizing rainfall patterns across Chile. Monthly analysis showed that all satellite products highly overestimated precipitation in the arid North zone. However, there were no major difference between all three products from North to South-Central zones. Though, in the South zone, PERSIANN-CDR shows the lowest fit with high underestimation, further CHIRPS 2.0 and TMPA 3B43 v7 had better agreement with in-situ measurements. The accuracy of satellite products were highly dependent on the amount of monthly rainfall with the best results found during winter seasons and in zones (Central to South) with higher amounts of precipitation. PERSIANN-CDR and CHIRPS 2.0 were used to derive SPI at time-scale of 1, 3 and 6 months, both satellite products presented similar results when it was compared in-situ against satellite SPI's. Because of its higher spatial resolution that allows better characterizing of spatial variation in precipitation pattern, the CHIRPS 2.0 was used to mapping the SPI-3 over Chile. The results of this study show that in order to use the CHIRPS 2.0 and PERSIANN-CDR data sets in Chile to monitor spatial patterns in the rainfall and drought intensity conditions, these products should be calibrated to adjust for the overestimation/underestimation of precipitation geographically specially in the North zone and seasonally during the summer and spring months in the other zones.

Millennial-scale vegetation dynamics in an estuary at the onset of the Miocene Climate Optimum

PubMed Central

Kern, Andrea; Harzhauser, Mathias; Mandic, Oleg; Roetzel, Reinhard; Ćorić, Stjepan; Bruch, Angela A.; Zuschin, Martin

2010-01-01

Pollen analyses have been proven to possess the possibility to decipher rapid vegetational and climate shifts in Neogene sedimentary records. Herein, a c. 21-kyr-long transgression–regression cycle from the Lower Austrian locality Stetten is analysed in detail to evaluate climatic benchmarks for the early phase of the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum and to estimate the pace of environmental change. Based on the Coexistence Approach, a very clear signal of seasonality can be reconstructed. A warm and wet summer season with c. 204–236 mm precipitation during the wettest month was opposed by a rather dry winter season with precipitation of c. 9–24 mm during the driest month. The mean annual temperature ranged between 15.7 and 20.8 °C, with about 9.6–13.3 °C during the cold season and 24.7–27.9 °C during the warmest month. In contrast, today’s climate of this area, with an annual temperature of 9.8 °C and 660 mm rainfall, is characterized by the winter season (mean temperature: −1.4 °C, mean precipitation: 39 mm) and a summer mean temperature of 19.9 °C (mean precipitation: 84 mm). Different modes of environmental shifts shaped the composition of the vegetation. Within few millennia, marshes and salt marshes with abundant Cyperaceae rapidly graded into Taxodiaceae swamps. This quick but gradual process was interrupted by swift marine ingressions which took place on a decadal to centennial scale. The transgression is accompanied by blooms of dinoflagellates and of the green alga Prasinophyta and an increase in Abies and Picea. Afterwards, the retreat of the sea and the progradation of estuarine and wetland settings were a gradual progress again. Despite a clear sedimentological cyclicity, which is related to the 21-kyr precessional forcing, the climate data show little variation. This missing pattern might be due to the buffering of the precessional-related climate signal by the subtropical vegetation. Another explanation could be the method-inherent broad range of climate-parameter estimates that could cover small scale climatic changes. PMID:22021937

Climatic controls of the interannual to decadal variability in Saudi Arabian dust activity: Towards the development of a seasonal prediction tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Y.; Notaro, M.; Liu, Z.; Alkolibi, F.; Fadda, E.; Bakhrjy, F.

2013-12-01

Atmospheric dust significantly influences the climate system, as well as human life in Saudi Arabia. Skillful seasonal prediction of dust activity with climatic variables will help prevent some negative social impacts of dust storms. Yet, the climatic regulators on Saudi Arabian dust activity remain largely unaddressed. Remote sensing and station observations show consistent seasonal cycles in Saudi Arabian dust activity, which peaks in spring and summer. The climatic controls on springtime and summertime Saudi Arabian dust activity during 1975-2010 are studied using observational and reanalysis data. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of the observed Saudi Arabian dust storm frequency shows a dominant homogeneous pattern across the country, which has distinct interannual and decadal variations, as revealed by the power spectrum. Regression and correlation analyses reveal that Saudi Arabian dust activity is largely tied to precipitation on the Arabian Peninsula in spring and northwesterly (Shamal) wind in summer. On the seasonal-interannual time scale, warm El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase (El Niño) in winter-to-spring inhibits spring dust activity by increasing the precipitation over the Rub'al Khali Desert, a major dust source region on the southern Arabian Peninsula; warm ENSO and warm Indian Ocean Basin Mode (IOBM) in winter-to-spring favor less summer dust activity by producing anomalously low sea-level pressure over eastern north Africa and Arabian Peninsula, which leads to the reduced Shamal wind speed. The decadal variation in dust activity is likely associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which impacts Sahel rainfall and North African dust, and likely dust transport to Saudi Arabia. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and tropical Indian Ocean SST also have influence on the decadal variation in Saudi Arabian dust activity, by altering precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula and summer Shamal wind speed. Using eastern tropical Pacific SST as the high-frequency predictor and antecedent accumulated precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula and North Africa as low-frequency predictors, the predicted seasonal dust activity over Saudi Arabia is well correlated with the original time series (correlation above 0.6).