Forecasts and Warnings of Extreme Solar Storms at the Sun

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lundstedt, H.

2015-12-01

The most pressing space weather forecasts and warnings are those of the most intense solar flares and coronal mass ejections. However, in trying to develop these forecasts and warnings, we are confronted to many fundamental questions. Some of those are: How to define an observable measure for an extreme solar storm? How extreme can a solar storm become and how long is the build up time? How to make forecasts and warnings? Many have contributed to clarifying these general questions. In his presentation we will describe our latest results on the topological complexity of magnetic fields and the use of SDO SHARP parameters. The complexity concept will then be used to discuss the second question. Finally we will describe probability estimates of extreme solar storms.

Climate change implications and use of early warning systems for global dust storms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harriman, Lindsey M.

2014-01-01

With increased changes in land cover and global climate, early detection and warning of dust storms in conjunction with effective and widespread information broadcasts will be essential to the prevention and mitigation of future risks and impacts. Human activities, seasonal variations and long-term climatic patterns influence dust storms. More research is needed to analyse these factors of dust mobilisation to create more certainty for the fate of vulnerable populations and ecosystems in the future. Early warning and communication systems, when in place and effectively implemented, can offer some relief to these vulnerable areas. As an issue that affects many regions of the world, there is a profound need to understand the potential changes and ultimately create better early warning systems for dust storms.

7 CFR 760.702 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

..., moisture, humidity, severe storms, thunderstorms, ground saturation or standing water, hail, winter storms, ice storms, snow, blizzard, hurricane, typhoons, tropical storms, and cold wet weather. A disaster..., moisture, humidity, severe storms, thunderstorms, ground saturation or standing water, hail, winter storms...

7 CFR 760.702 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

..., moisture, humidity, severe storms, thunderstorms, ground saturation or standing water, hail, winter storms, ice storms, snow, blizzard, hurricane, typhoons, tropical storms, and cold wet weather. A disaster..., moisture, humidity, severe storms, thunderstorms, ground saturation or standing water, hail, winter storms...

7 CFR 760.702 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

..., moisture, humidity, severe storms, thunderstorms, ground saturation or standing water, hail, winter storms, ice storms, snow, blizzard, hurricane, typhoons, tropical storms, and cold wet weather. A disaster..., moisture, humidity, severe storms, thunderstorms, ground saturation or standing water, hail, winter storms...

7 CFR 760.702 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

..., moisture, humidity, severe storms, thunderstorms, ground saturation or standing water, hail, winter storms, ice storms, snow, blizzard, hurricane, typhoons, tropical storms, and cold wet weather. A disaster..., moisture, humidity, severe storms, thunderstorms, ground saturation or standing water, hail, winter storms...

Episodic acidification of a coastal plain stream in Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Brien, A. K.; Eshleman, K.N.

1996-01-01

This study investigates the episodic acidification of Reedy Creek, a wetland-influenced coastal plain stream near Richmond, Virginia. Primary objectives of the study were to quantify the episodic variability of acid- base chemistry in Reedy Creek, to examine the seasonal variability in episodic response and to explain the hydrological and geochemical factors that contribute to episodic acidification. Chemical response was similar in each of the seven storms examined, however, the ranges in concentrations observed were commonly greater in summer/fall storms than in winter/spring storms. An increase in SO4/2- concentration with discharge was observed during all storms and peak concentration occurred at or near peak flow. Small increases in Mg2+, Ca2+, K+ concentrations and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) were observed during most storms. At the same time, ANC, Na+ and Cl- concentrations usually decreased with increasing discharge. In summer/fall storms, the absolute increase in SO4/2- concentration was one-third to 15 times the increase observed in winter/spring storms; the decrease in ANC during summer/fall storms was usually within the range of the decrease observed in winter/spring storms. In contrast, the decrease in Na+ and Cl- concentrations during winter/spring storms was much greater than that observed during summer/fall storms. Data show that while base flow anion deficit was higher in summer/fall than in winter/spring, anion deficit decreased during most summer/fall storms. In contrast, base flow anion deficit was lower in spring and winter, but increased during winter/spring storms. Increased SO4/2- concentration was the main cause of episodic acidification during storms at Reedy Creek, but increased anion deficit indicates organic acids may contribute to episodic acidification during winter/spring storms. Changes in SO4/2- concentration coincident with the hydrograph rise indicate quick routing of water through the watershed. Saturation overland flow appears to be the likely mechanism by which solutes are transported to the stream during storm flow.

The Lake Victoria Intense Storm Early Warning System (VIEWS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiery, Wim; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Bedka, Kristopher; Semazzi, Fredrick; Lhermitte, Stef; Willems, Patrick; van Lipzig, Nicole; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2017-04-01

Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria in East Africa. Every year, intense nighttime thunderstorms cause numerous boating accidents on the lake, resulting in thousands of deaths among fishermen. Operational storm warning systems are therefore crucial. Here we complement ongoing early warning efforts based on NWP, by presenting a new satellite data-driven storm prediction system, the prototype Lake Victoria Intense storm Early Warning System (VIEWS). VIEWS derives predictability from the correlation between afternoon land storm activity and nighttime storm intensity on Lake Victoria, and relies on logistic regression techniques to forecast extreme thunderstorms from satellite observations. Evaluation of the statistical model reveals that predictive power is high and independent of the input dataset. We then optimise the configuration and show that also false alarms contain valuable information. Our results suggest that regression-based models that are motivated through process understanding have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of local fishing communities around Lake Victoria. The experimental prediction system is publicly available under the MIT licence at http://github.com/wthiery/VIEWS.

Aggregated responses of human mobility to severe winter storms: An empirical study.

PubMed

Wang, Yan; Wang, Qi; Taylor, John E

2017-01-01

Increasing frequency of extreme winter storms has resulted in costly damages and a disruptive impact on the northeastern United States. It is important to understand human mobility patterns during such storms for disaster preparation and relief operations. We investigated the effects of severe winter storms on human mobility during a 2015 blizzard using 2.69 million Twitter geolocations. We found that displacements of different trip distances and radii of gyration of individuals' mobility were perturbed significantly. We further explored the characteristics of perturbed mobility during the storm, and demonstrated that individuals' recurrent mobility does not have a higher degree of similarity with their perturbed mobility, when comparing with its similarity to non-perturbed mobility. These empirical findings on human mobility impacted by severe winter storms have potential long-term implications on emergency response planning and the development of strategies to improve resilience in severe winter storms.

Lightning Evolution In Two North Central Florida Summer Multicell Storms and Three Winter/Spring Frontal Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caicedo, J. A.; Uman, M. A.; Pilkey, J. T.

2018-01-01

We present the first lightning evolution studies, via the Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) and radar, performed in North Central Florida. Parts of three winter/spring frontal storms (cold season) and two complete summer (warm season) multicell storms are studied. Storm parameters measured are as follows: total number of flashes, flash-type classification, first flashes, flash initiation altitude, flash initiation power, flash rate (flashes per minute), charge structure, altitude and temperature ranges of the inferred charge regions, atmospheric isotherm altitude, radar base reflectivity (dBZ), and radar echo tops (EET). Several differences were found between summer multicell and winter/spring frontal storms in North Central Florida: (1) in winter/spring storms, the range of altitudes that all charge regions occupy is up to 1 km lower in altitude than in summer storms, as are the 0°C, -10°C, and -20°C isotherms; (2) lightning activity in summer storms is highly correlated with changes in radar signatures, in particular, echo tops; and (3) the LMA average initiation power of all flash types in winter/frontal storms is about an order of magnitude larger than that for summer storms. In relation to storms in other geographical locations, North Central Florida seasonal storms were found to have similarities in most parameters studied with a few differences, examples in Florida being (1) colder initiation altitudes for intracloud flashes, (2) charge regions occupying larger ranges of atmospheric temperatures, and (3) winter/spring frontal storms not having much lightning activity in the stratiform region.

Climate Change Implications and Use of Early Warning Systems for Global Dust Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harriman, L.

2014-12-01

Increased changes in land cover and global climate have led to increased frequency and/or intensity of dust storms in some regions of the world. Early detection and warning of dust storms, in conjunction with effective and widespread information broadcasts, will be essential to the prevention and mitigation of future risks and impacts to people and the environment. Since frequency and intensity of dust storms can vary from region to region, there is a demonstrated need for more research to be conducted over longer periods of time to analyze trends of dust storm events [1]. Dust storms impact their origin area, but also land, water and people a great distance away from where dust finally settles [2, 3]. These transboundary movements and accompanying impacts further warrant the need for global collaboration to help predict the onset, duration and path of a dust storm. Early warning systems can help communicate when a dust storm is occurring, the projected intensity of the dust storm and its anticipated physical impact over a particular geographic area. Development of regional dust storm models, such as CUACE/Dust for East Asia, and monitoring networks, like the Sand and Dust Storm Warning Network operated by the World Meteorological Organization, and the use of remote sensing and satellite imagery derived products [4], including MODIS, are currently being incorporated into early warning and monitoring initiatives. However, to increase future certainty of impacts of dust storms on vulnerable populations and ecosystems, more research is needed to analyze the influences of human activities, seasonal variations and long-term climatic patterns on dust storm generation, movement and impact. Sources: [1] Goudie, A.S. (2009), Dust storms: recent developments, J Environ. Manage., 90. [2] Lee, H., and Liu, C. (2004), Coping with dust storm events: information, impacts, and policymaking in Taiwan, TAO, 15(5). [3] Marx, S.K., McGowan, H.A., and Balz, K.S. (2009), Long-range dust transport from eastern Australia: a proxy for Holocene aridity and ENSO-type climate variability, Earth Planet Sci. Lett., 282. [4] Kimura, R. (2012), Factors contributing to dust storms in source regions producing the yellow-sand phenomena observed in Japan from 1993 to 2002, J. Arid Environ. 80

Early warnings of hazardous thunderstorms over Lake Victoria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiery, Wim; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Bedka, Kristopher; Semazzi, Fredrick H. M.; Lhermitte, Stef; Willems, Patrick; van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2017-07-01

Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria in East Africa. Every year, intense nighttime thunderstorms cause numerous boating accidents on the lake, resulting in thousands of deaths among fishermen. Operational storm warning systems are therefore crucial. Here we complement ongoing early warning efforts based on numerical weather prediction, by presenting a new satellite data-driven storm prediction system, the prototype Lake Victoria Intense storm Early Warning System (VIEWS). VIEWS derives predictability from the correlation between afternoon land storm activity and nighttime storm intensity on Lake Victoria, and relies on logistic regression techniques to forecast extreme thunderstorms from satellite observations. Evaluation of the statistical model reveals that predictive power is high and independent of the type of input dataset. We then optimise the configuration and show that false alarms also contain valuable information. Our results suggest that regression-based models that are motivated through process understanding have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of local fishing communities around Lake Victoria. The experimental prediction system is publicly available under the MIT licence at http://github.com/wthiery/VIEWS.

Interannual Modulation of Northern Hemisphere Winter Storm Tracks by the QBO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jiabao; Kim, Hye-Mi; Chang, Edmund K. M.

2018-03-01

Storm tracks, defined as the preferred regions of extratropical synoptic-scale disturbances, have remarkable impacts on global weather and climate systems. Causes of interannual storm track variation have been investigated mostly from a troposphere perspective. As shown in this study, Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks are significantly modulated by the tropical stratosphere through the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The North Pacific storm track shifts poleward during the easterly QBO winters associated with a dipole change in the eddy refraction and baroclinicity. The North Atlantic storm track varies vertically with a downward shrinking (upward expansion) in easterly (westerly) QBO winters associated with the change of the tropopause height. These results not only fill the knowledge gap of QBO-storm track relationship but also suggest a potential route to improve the seasonal prediction of extratropical storm activities owing to the high predictability of the QBO.

Modeling of Coastal Inundation, Storm Surge, and Relative Sea-Level Rise at Naval Station Norfolk, Norfolk, Virginia, U.S.A.

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-01-01

of 2 m. ADDITIONAL INDEX WORDS: Nearshore hydrodynamic modeling, waves, synthetic tropical storms , extratropical storms , Hurricane Isabel, land...an increase in SLR and coastal storms , including hurricanes (tropical storms ) and winter storms ( extratropical storms ), will increase the risk of... storms ) corresponding to 50-year and 100-year return periods and a most probable winter storm ( extratropical ) that occurred in October 1982 (Burks-Copes

Idaho storm warning system operational test

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-12-01

The Storm Warning Project was initiated in 1993 as a result of a large number of serious traffic crashes that occurred during periods of low visibility on I-84 in southeastern Idaho between 1988 and 1993. The purpose of the project was to determine i...

Winter storm intensity, hazards, and property losses in the New York tristate area.

PubMed

Shimkus, Cari E; Ting, Mingfang; Booth, James F; Adamo, Susana B; Madajewicz, Malgosia; Kushnir, Yochanan; Rieder, Harald E

2017-07-01

Winter storms pose numerous hazards to the Northeast United States, including rain, snow, strong wind, and flooding. These hazards can cause millions of dollars in damages from one storm alone. This study investigates meteorological intensity and impacts of winter storms from 2001 to 2014 on coastal counties in Connecticut, New Jersey, and New York and underscores the consequences of winter storms. The study selected 70 winter storms on the basis of station observations of surface wind strength, heavy precipitation, high storm tide, and snow extremes. Storm rankings differed between measures, suggesting that intensity is not easily defined with a single metric. Several storms fell into two or more categories (multiple-category storms). Following storm selection, property damages were examined to determine which types lead to high losses. The analysis of hazards (or events) and associated damages using the Storm Events Database of the National Centers for Environmental Information indicates that multiple-category storms were responsible for a greater portion of the damage. Flooding was responsible for the highest losses, but no discernible connection exists between the number of storms that afflict a county and the damage it faces. These results imply that losses may rely more on the incidence of specific hazards, infrastructure types, and property values, which vary throughout the region. © 2017 The Authors. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences published by Wiley Periodicals Inc. on behalf of The New York Academy of Sciences.

Developing an early warning system for storm surge inundation in the Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tablazon, Judd; Mahar Francisco Lagmay, Alfredo; Francia Mungcal, Ma. Theresa; Gonzalo, Lia Anne; Dasallas, Lea; Briones, Jo Brianne Louise; Santiago, Joy; Suarez, John Kenneth; Lapidez, John Phillip; Caro, Carl Vincent; Ladiero, Christine; Malano, Vicente

2014-05-01

A storm surge is the sudden rise of sea water generated by an approaching storm, over and above the astronomical tides. This event imposes a major threat in the Philippine coastal areas, as manifested by Typhoon Haiyan on 08 November 2013 where more than 6,000 people lost their lives. It has become evident that the need to develop an early warning system for storm surges is of utmost importance. To provide forecasts of the possible storm surge heights of an approaching typhoon, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology (DOST-Project NOAH) simulated historical tropical cyclones that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. Bathymetric data, storm track, central atmospheric pressure, and maximum wind speed were used as parameters for the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Storm Surge Model. The researchers calculated the frequency distribution of maximum storm surge heights of all typhoons under a specific Public Storm Warning Signal (PSWS) that passed through a particular coastal area. This determines the storm surge height corresponding to a given probability of occurrence. The storm surge heights from the model were added to the maximum astronomical tide data from WXTide software. The team then created maps of probable area inundation and flood levels of storm surges along coastal areas for a specific PSWS using the results of the frequency distribution. These maps were developed from the time series data of the storm tide at 10-minute intervals of all observation points in the Philippines. This information will be beneficial in developing early warnings systems, static maps, disaster mitigation and preparedness plans, vulnerability assessments, risk-sensitive land use plans, shoreline defense efforts, and coastal protection measures. Moreover, these will support the local government units' mandate to raise public awareness, disseminate information about storm surge hazards, and implement appropriate counter-measures for a given PSWS.

Developing an early warning system for storm surge inundation in the Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tablazon, J.; Caro, C. V.; Lagmay, A. M. F.; Briones, J. B. L.; Dasallas, L.; Lapidez, J. P.; Santiago, J.; Suarez, J. K.; Ladiero, C.; Gonzalo, L. A.; Mungcal, M. T. F.; Malano, V.

2014-10-01

A storm surge is the sudden rise of sea water generated by an approaching storm, over and above the astronomical tides. This event imposes a major threat in the Philippine coastal areas, as manifested by Typhoon Haiyan on 8 November 2013 where more than 6000 people lost their lives. It has become evident that the need to develop an early warning system for storm surges is of utmost importance. To provide forecasts of the possible storm surge heights of an approaching typhoon, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology (DOST-Project NOAH) simulated historical tropical cyclones that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. Bathymetric data, storm track, central atmospheric pressure, and maximum wind speed were used as parameters for the Japan Meteorological Agency Storm Surge Model. The researchers calculated the frequency distribution of maximum storm surge heights of all typhoons under a specific Public Storm Warning Signal (PSWS) that passed through a particular coastal area. This determines the storm surge height corresponding to a given probability of occurrence. The storm surge heights from the model were added to the maximum astronomical tide data from WXTide software. The team then created maps of probable area inundation and flood levels of storm surges along coastal areas for a specific PSWS using the results of the frequency distribution. These maps were developed from the time series data of the storm tide at 10 min intervals of all observation points in the Philippines. This information will be beneficial in developing early warnings systems, static maps, disaster mitigation and preparedness plans, vulnerability assessments, risk-sensitive land use plans, shoreline defense efforts, and coastal protection measures. Moreover, these will support the local government units' mandate to raise public awareness, disseminate information about storm surge hazards, and implement appropriate counter-measures for a given PSWS.

Why Don't People Evacuate When Nature Threatens?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, K. J.; Broad, K.; Meyer, R.; Orlove, B. S.

2011-12-01

Why do so many Southern Californians fail to evacuate when warned that winter storms have critically raised the risk of a debris flow in their neighborhoods? Have they perhaps not seen or heeded news coverage of past debris flow events? Are they unaware that recent fires made the hillsides above them more prone to gravity-driven processes? Do they think they can wait to start their cars until they can actually see the flow coming? Or have they merely experienced too many "false alarms" in past years, and no longer put much stock in the judgment of public officials or the ability of scientists to judge debris flow risk? In preparation for a simulation study that will place decision makers in a virtual house in the California foothills during a winter storm event, we explore the reasons that people do and do not evacuate in the face of potential debris flows. Working in collaboration with the USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project for Southern California, we are surveying hundreds of local residents, from debris-flow prone areas and from elsewhere in the state, to establish their baseline knowledge (and misconceptions) about, attitudes toward, information use regarding, and experience with debris flows. Initial interviews with residents of recently hit neighborhoods give qualitative data suggesting that false-alarm effects and underestimation of risk are driving factors; these surveys will provide quantitative evidence to extend those findings. We will discuss the results of this survey in the context of a comprehensive body of psychology research that seeks to explain why people frequently appear to ignore or discount hazard warnings: neglecting to insure their homes and crops (Kunreuther, 1984), failing to evacuate in the face of storms and fires (Baker, 1991; Packham, 1995), and (barring a recent, vivid event) showing little support for measures that would manage or mitigate future hazards (Kunreuther, 2006a, 2006b; Weber, 2006). We will also consider the results of the survey in the context of findings from a similar simulation study on hurricane preparation and evacuation behavior in Florida, which suggests that prior outcomes affect the way that experience influences concern and evacuation behavior.

Coupled prediction of flood response and debris flow initiation during warm and cold season events in the Southern Appalachians, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, J.; Barros, A. P.

2013-07-01

Debris flows associated with rainstorms are a frequent and devastating hazard in the Southern Appalachians in the United States. Whereas warm season events are clearly associated with heavy rainfall intensity, the same cannot be said for the cold season events. Instead, there is a relationship between large (cumulative) rainfall events independently of season, and thus hydrometeorological regime, and debris flows. This suggests that the dynamics of subsurface hydrologic processes play an important role as a trigger mechanism, specifically through soil moisture redistribution by interflow. The first objective of this study is to investigate this hypothesis. The second objective is to assess the physical basis for a regional coupled flood prediction and debris flow warning system. For this purpose, uncalibrated model simulations of well-documented debris flows in headwater catchments of the Southern Appalachians using a 3-D surface-groundwater hydrologic model coupled with slope stability models are examined in detail. Specifically, we focus on two vulnerable headwater catchments that experience frequent debris flows, the Big Creek and the Jonathan Creek in the Upper Pigeon River Basin, North Carolina, and three distinct weather systems: an extremely heavy summertime convective storm in 2011; a persistent winter storm lasting several days; and a severe winter storm in 2009. These events were selected due to the optimal availability of rainfall observations, availability of detailed field surveys of the landslides shortly after they occurred, which can be used to evaluate model predictions, and because they are representative of events that cause major economic losses in the region. The model results substantiate that interflow is a useful prognostic of conditions necessary for the initiation of slope instability, and should therefore be considered explicitly in landslide hazard assessments. Moreover, the relationships between slope stability and interflow are strongly modulated by the topography and catchment specific geomorphologic features that determine subsurface flow convergence zones. The three case-studies demonstrate the value of coupled prediction of flood response and debris flow initiation potential in the context of developing a regional hazard warning system.

Idaho storm warning system operational test : final report

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-12-01

The Storm Warning Project was initiated in 1993 as a result of a large number of serious traffic crashes that occurred during periods of low visibility on I-84 in southeastern Idaho between 1988 and 1993. The purpose of the project was to determine i...

JPSS Data Product Applications for Monitoring Severe Weather and Environmental Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, X.; Zhou, L.; Divakarla, M. G.; Atkins, T.

2016-12-01

The Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) next-generation polar-orbiting operational environmental satellite system. The Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) is the first satellite in the JPSS series. One of the JPSS supported key mission areas is to reduce the loss of life from high-impact weather events while improving efficient economies through environmental information. Combining with the sensors on other polar and geostationary satellite platforms, JPSS observations provided much enhanced capabilities for the Nation's essential products and services, including forecasting severe weather like hurricanes, potential tornadic outbreaks, and blizzards days in advance, and assessing environmental hazards such as droughts, floods, forest fires, poor air quality and harmful coastal waters. Sensor and Environmental Data Records (SDRs/EDRs) derived from S-NPP and follow-on JPSS satellites provide critical data for environmental assessments, forecasts and warnings. This paper demonstrates the use of S-NPP science data products towards analysis events of severe weather and environmental hazards, such as Paraguay Flooding, Hurricane Iselle, the record-breaking winter storm system that impacted the US East Coast area early this year, and Fort McMurray wildfire. A brief description of these examples and a detailed discussion of the winter storm event are presented in this paper. VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) and ATMS (Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder) SDR/EDR products collected from multiple days of S-NPP observations are analyzed to study the progression of the winter storm and illustrate how JPSS products captured the storm system. The products used for this study included VIIRS day/night band (DNB) and true color images, ocean turbidity images, snow cover fraction, and the multi-sensor snowfall rates. Quantitative evaluation of the ATMS derived snowfall rates with the radar estimates revealed good agreement. Use of STAR JPSS product monitoring and visualization tools to evaluate these events, and applications of these tools for anomaly detection, mitigation, and science maintenance of the long-term stability of the data products is also presented in this paper.

Winter maintenance performance measure.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-01-01

The Winter Performance Index is a method of quantifying winter storm events and the DOTs response to them. : It is a valuable tool for evaluating the States maintenance practices, performing post-storm analysis, training : maintenance personnel...

Flood Losses Associated with Winter Storms in the U.S. Northeast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ting, M.; Shimkus, C.

2015-12-01

Winter storms pose a number of hazards to coastal communities in the U.S. Northeast including heavy rain, snow, strong wind, cold temperatures, and flooding. These hazards can cause millions in property damages from one storm alone. This study addresses the impacts of winter storms from 2001 - 2012 on coastal counties in the U.S. Northeast and underscores the significant economic consequences extreme winter storms have on property. The analysis on the types of hazards (floods, strong wind, snow, etc.) and associated damage from the National Climatic Data Center Storm Events Database indicates that floods were responsible for the highest damages. This finding suggests that winter storm vulnerability could grow in the future as precipitation intensity increases and sea level rise exacerbate flood losses. Flood loss maps are constructed based on damage amount, which can be compared to the flood exposure maps constructed by the NOAA Office of Coastal Management. Interesting agreements and discrepancies exist between the two methods, which warrant further examination. Furthermore, flood losses often came from storms characterized as heavy precipitation storms and strong surge storms, and sometimes both, illustrating the compounding effect of flood risks in the region. While New Jersey counties experienced the most damage per unit area, there is no discernable connection between population density and damage amount, which suggests that societal impacts may rely less on population characteristics and more on infrastructure types and property values, which vary throughout the region.

High-Resolution Rainfall From Radar Reflectivity and Terrestrial Rain Gages for use in Estimating Debris-Flow Susceptibility in the Day Fire, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanshaw, M. N.; Schmidt, K. M.; Jorgensen, D. P.; Stock, J. D.

2007-12-01

Constraining the distribution of rainfall is essential to evaluating the post-fire mass-wasting response of steep soil-mantled landscapes. As part of a pilot early-warning project for flash floods and debris flows, NOAA deployed a portable truck-mounted Shared Mobile Atmospheric Research and Teaching Radar (SMART-R) to the 2006 Day fire in the Transverse Ranges of Southern California. In conjunction with a dense array of ground- based instruments, including 8 tipping-bucket rain gages located within an area of 170 km2, this C-band mobile Doppler radar provided 200-m grid cell estimates of precipitation data at fine temporal and spatial scales in burned steeplands at risk from hazardous flash floods and debris flows. To assess the utility of using this data in process models for flood and debris flow initiation, we converted grids of radar reflectivity to hourly time-steps of precipitation using an empirical relationship for convective storms, sampling the radar data at the locations of each rain gage as determined by GPS. The SMART-R was located 14 km from the farthest rain gage, but <10 km away from our intensive research area, where 5 gages are located within <1-2 km of each other. Analyses of the nine storms imaged by radar throughout the 2006/2007 winter produced similar cumulative rainfall totals between the gages and their SMART-R grid location over the entire season which correlate well on the high side, with gages recording the most precipitation agreeing to within 11% of the SMART-R. In contrast, on the low rainfall side, totals between the two recording systems are more variable, with a 62% variance between the minimums. In addition, at the scale of individual storms, a correlation between ground-based rainfall measurements and radar-based rainfall estimates is less evident, with storm totals between the gages and the SMART-R varying between 7 and 88%, a possible result of these being relatively small, fast-moving storms in an unusually dry winter. The SMART-R also recorded higher seasonal cumulative rainfall than the terrestrial gages, perhaps indicating that not all precipitation reached the ground. For one storm in particular, time-lapse photographs of the ground document snow. This could explain, in part, the discrepancy between storm-specific totals when the rain gages recorded significantly lower totals than the SMART-R. For example, during the storm where snow was observed, the SMART-R recorded a maximum of 66% higher rainfall than the maximum recorded by the gages. Unexpectedly, the highest elevation gage, located in a pre-fire coniferous vegetation community, consistently recorded the lowest precipitation, whereas gages in the lower elevation pre- fire chaparral community recorded the highest totals. The spatial locations of the maximum rainfall inferred by the SMART-R and the terrestrial gages are also offset by 1.6 km, with terrestrial values shifted easterly. The observation that the SMART-R images high rainfall intensities recorded by rain gages suggests that this technology has the ability to quantitatively estimate the spatial distribution over larger areas at a high resolution. Discrepancies on the storm scale, however, need to be investigated further, but we are optimistic that such high resolution data from the SMART-R and the terrestrial gages may lead to the effective application of a prototype debris-flow warning system where such processes put lives at risk.

Real-time landslide warning during heavy rainfall

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keefer, D.K.; Wilson, R.C.; Mark, R.K.; Brabb, E.E.; Brown, W. M.; Ellen, S.D.; Harp, E.L.; Wieczorek, G.F.; Alger, C.S.; Zatkin, R.S.

1987-01-01

A real-time system for issuing warnings of landslides during major storms is being developed for the San Francisco Bay region, California. The system is based on empirical and theoretical relations between rainfall and landslide initiation, geologic determination of areas susceptible to landslides, real-time monitoring of a regional network of telemetering rain gages, and National Weather Service precipitation forecasts. This system was used to issue warnings during the storms of 12 to 21 February 1986, which produced 800 millimeters of rainfall in the region. Although analysis after the storms suggests that modifications and additional developments are needed, the system successfully predicted the times of major landslide events. It could be used as a prototype for systems in other landslide-prone regions.

As expected Harvey has intensified into a Hurricane

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-08-24

On Aug. 24, the National Hurricane Center noted that Hurricane Harvey was quickly strengthening and is forecast to be a category 3 Hurricane when it approaches the middle Texas coast. In addition, life-threatening storm surge and freshwater flooding expected. On Aug. 24, many warnings and watches were in effect: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass Texas. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from south of Port Mansfield Texas to the mouth of the Rio Grande River and from north of San Luis Pass to High Island, Texas. A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Port Mansfield to Matagorda, Texas. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from north of Matagorda to High Island, Texas and south of Port Mansfield, Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande. A Hurricane Watch is in effect from south of Port Mansfield, Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from south of the mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan, Mexico. GOES-16 captured this geocolor image of Tropical Storm Harvey in the Gulf of Mexico this morning, August 24, 2017. Geocolor imagery enhancement shown here displays geostationary satellite data in different ways depending on whether it is day or night. This image, captured as daylight moves into the area, offers a blend of both, with nighttime features on the left side of the image and daytime on the right. Credit: NOAA/NASA GOES Project

An early warning system for marine storm hazard mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vousdoukas, M. I.; Almeida, L. P.; Pacheco, A.; Ferreira, O.

2012-04-01

The present contribution presents efforts towards the development of an operational Early Warning System for storm hazard prediction and mitigation. The system consists of a calibrated nested-model train which consists of specially calibrated Wave Watch III, SWAN and XBeach models. The numerical simulations provide daily forecasts of the hydrodynamic conditions, morphological change and overtopping risk at the area of interest. The model predictions are processed by a 'translation' module which is based on site-specific Storm Impact Indicators (SIIs) (Ciavola et al., 2011, Storm impacts along European coastlines. Part 2: lessons learned from the MICORE project, Environmental Science & Policy, Vol 14), and warnings are issued when pre-defined threshold values are exceeded. For the present site the selected SIIs were (i) the maximum wave run-up height during the simulations; and (ii) the dune-foot horizontal retreat at the end of the simulations. Both SIIs and pre-defined thresholds were carefully selected on the grounds of existing experience and field data. Four risk levels were considered, each associated with an intervention approach, recommended to the responsible coastal protection authority. Regular updating of the topography/bathymetry is critical for the performance of the storm impact forecasting, especially when there are significant morphological changes. The system can be extended to other critical problems, like implications of global warming and adaptive management strategies, while the approach presently followed, from model calibration to the early warning system for storm hazard mitigation, can be applied to other sites worldwide, with minor adaptations.

Storm-wave-induced seabed deformation: Results from in situ observation in the Yellow River subaqueous delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Y.; Wang, Z. Mr; Liu, X.; Shan, H.

2017-12-01

Submarine landslides move large volumes of sediment and are often hazardous to offshore installations. Current research into submarine landslides mainly relies on marine surveying techniques. In contrast, in situ observations of the submarine landslide process, specifically seabed deformation, are sparse, and therefore restrict our understanding of submarine landslide mechanisms and the establishment of a disaster warning scheme. The submarine landslide monitoring (SLM) system, which has been designed to partly overcome these pitfalls, can monitor storm-wave-induced submarine landslides in situ and over a long time period. The SLM system comprises two parts: (1) a hydrodynamic monitoring tripod for recording hydrodynamic data and (2) a shape accel array for recording seabed deformation at different depths. This study recorded the development of the SLM system and the results of in situ observation in the Yellow River Delta, China, during the boreal winter of 2014-2015. The results show an abrupt small-scale storm-wave-induced seabed shear deformation; the shear interface is in at least 1.5-m depth and the displacement of sediments at 1.23-m depth is more than 13 mm. The performance of the SLM system confirms the feasibility and stability of this approach. Further, the in situ observations, as well as the laboratory tests, helped reveal the profound mechanism of storm-wave-induced seabed deformation.

Martian dust storms witnessed by Viking Lander 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, H. J.; Guinness, R. E. A.

1984-01-01

Viking Lander 1 observations on Mars were punctuated by a strong local dust storm after two martian years of mild wind conditions. Tens of micrometers of dust settled to the surface during global dust storms of the first two falls and winters; some of this dust was locally removed during the second year. A late winter local dust storm of the first year caused little or no erosion of the surface materials despite wind speeds of 25 to 30 m/s. The strong local dust storm occurred during late winter of the third martian year. Winds of this storm altered and demolished small conical piles of surface materials constructed at the onset the first winter, removed 4 to 5 mm size fragments, displaced centimeter size fragments, destroyed clouds in areas disrupted by the sampler and footpad, eroded impact pits, and darkened the sky. Movement of erosional products and tiny wind tails indicate easterly to northeasterly winds. If the 4 to 5 mm size fragments were entrained and removd by the wind, threshold friction speeds near 3 to 5 m/s would have been required for the atmospheric temperatures and pressures that prevailed during the late winter of the third year.

Operation of a real-time warning system for debris flows in the San Francisco bay area, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Raymond C.; Mark, Robert K.; Barbato, Gary; ,

1993-01-01

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Weather Service (NWS) have developed an operational warning system for debris flows during severe rainstorms in the San Francisco Bay region. The NWS makes quantitative forecasts of precipitation from storm systems approaching the Bay area and coordinates a regional network of radio-telemetered rain gages. The USGS has formulated thresholds for the intensity and duration of rainfall required to initiate debris flows. The first successful public warnings were issued during a severe storm sequence in February 1986. Continued operation of the warning system since 1986 has provided valuable working experience in rainfall forecasting and monitoring, refined rainfall thresholds, and streamlined procedures for issuing public warnings. Advisory statements issued since 1986 are summarized.

Transport of sediment-bound organochlorine pesticides to the San Joaquin River, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kratzer, C.R.

1999-01-01

Suspended sediment samples were collected in westside tributaries and the main stem of the San Joaquin River, California, in June 1994 during the irrigation season and in January 1995 during a winter storm. These samples were analyzed for 15 organochlorine pesticides to determine their occurrence and their concentrations on suspended sediment and to compare transport during the irrigation season (April to September) to transport during winter storm runoff (October to March). Ten organochlorine pesticides were detected during the winter storm runoff; seven during the irrigation season. The most frequently detected organochlorine pesticides during both sampling periods were p,p'-DDE, p,p'-DDT, p,p'-DDD, dieldrin, toxaphene, and chlordane. Dissolved samples were analyzed for three organochlorine pesticides during the irrigation season and for 15 during the winter storm. Most calculated total concentrations of p,p'-DDT, chlordane, dieldrin, and toxaphene exceeded chronic criteria for the protection of freshwater aquatic life. At eight sites in common between sampling periods, suspended sediment concentrations and streamflow were greater during the winter storm runoff median concentration of 3,590 mg/L versus 489 mg/and median streamflow of 162 ft3/s versus 11 ft3/s. Median concentrations of total DDT (sum of p,p'-DDD, p,p'-DDE, and p,p'-DDT), chlordane, dieldrin, and toxaphene on suspended sediment were slightly greater during the irrigation season, but instantaneous loads of organochlorine pesticides at the time of sampling were substantially greater during the winter storm. Estimated loads for the entire irrigation season exceeded estimated loads for the January 1995 storm by about 2 to 4 times for suspended transport and about 3 to 11 times for total transport. However, because the mean annual winter runoff is about 2 to 4 times greater than the runoff during the January 1995 storm, mean winter transport may be similar to irrigation season transport. This conclusion is tentative primarily because of insufficient information on long-term seasonal variations in suspended sediment and organochlorine concentrations. Nevertheless, runoff from infrequent winter storms will continue to deliver a significant load of sediment-bound organochlorine pesticides to the San Joaquin River even if irrigation-induced sediment transport is reduced. As a result, concentrations of organochlorine pesticides in San Joaquin River biota will continue to be relatively high compared to other regions of the United States.

Coupled prediction of flood response and debris flow initiation during warm- and cold-season events in the Southern Appalachians, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, J.; Barros, A. P.

2014-01-01

Debris flows associated with rainstorms are a frequent and devastating hazard in the Southern Appalachians in the United States. Whereas warm-season events are clearly associated with heavy rainfall intensity, the same cannot be said for the cold-season events. Instead, there is a relationship between large (cumulative) rainfall events independently of season, and thus hydrometeorological regime, and debris flows. This suggests that the dynamics of subsurface hydrologic processes play an important role as a trigger mechanism, specifically through soil moisture redistribution by interflow. We further hypothesize that the transient mass fluxes associated with the temporal-spatial dynamics of interflow govern the timing of shallow landslide initiation, and subsequent debris flow mobilization. The first objective of this study is to investigate this relationship. The second objective is to assess the physical basis for a regional coupled flood prediction and debris flow warning system. For this purpose, uncalibrated model simulations of well-documented debris flows in headwater catchments of the Southern Appalachians using a 3-D surface-groundwater hydrologic model coupled with slope stability models are examined in detail. Specifically, we focus on two vulnerable headwater catchments that experience frequent debris flows, the Big Creek and the Jonathan Creek in the Upper Pigeon River Basin, North Carolina, and three distinct weather systems: an extremely heavy summertime convective storm in 2011; a persistent winter storm lasting several days; and a severe winter storm in 2009. These events were selected due to the optimal availability of rainfall observations; availability of detailed field surveys of the landslides shortly after they occurred, which can be used to evaluate model predictions; and because they are representative of events that cause major economic losses in the region. The model results substantiate that interflow is a useful prognostic of conditions necessary for the initiation of slope instability, and should therefore be considered explicitly in landslide hazard assessments. Moreover, the relationships between slope stability and interflow are strongly modulated by the topography and catchment-specific geomorphologic features that determine subsurface flow convergence zones. The three case studies demonstrate the value of coupled prediction of flood response and debris flow initiation potential in the context of developing a regional hazard warning system.

Tree-ring record of droughts and severe winter storms in the Ouachita Mountains since 1745

Treesearch

Douglas J. Stevenson; Thomas B. Lynch; James M. Guldin

2015-01-01

Severe winter storms cause serious damage to trees, timber, power lines, and transportation systems each year. In the Ouachita Mountains, historical records of these storms extend back only 117 years, and many of them are of low-quality or have missing data.

Potential Seasonal Predictability for Winter Storms over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wild, Simon; Befort, Daniel J.; Leckebusch, Gregor C.

2017-04-01

Reliable seasonal forecasts of strong extra-tropical cyclones and windstorms would have great social and economical benefits, as these events are the most costly natural hazards over Europe. In a previous study we have shown good agreement of spatial climatological distributions of extra-tropical cyclones and wind storms in state-of-the-art multi-member seasonal prediction systems with reanalysis. We also found significant seasonal prediction skill of extra-tropical cyclones and windstorms affecting numerous European countries. We continue this research by investigating the mechanisms and precursor conditions (primarily over the North Atlantic) on a seasonal time scale leading to enhanced extra-tropical cyclone activity and winter storm frequency over Europe. Our results regarding mechanisms show that an increased surface temperature gradient at the western edge of the North Atlantic can be related to enhanced winter storm frequency further downstream causing for example a greater number of storms over the British Isles, as observed in winter 2013-14.The so-called "Horseshoe Index", a SST tripole anomaly pattern over the North Atlantic in the summer months can also cause a higher number of winter storms over Europe in the subsequent winter. We will show results of AMIP-type sensitivity experiments using an AGCM (ECHAM5), supporting this hypothesis. Finally we will analyse whether existing seasonal forecast systems are able to capture these identified mechanisms and precursor conditions affecting the models' seasonal prediction skill.

Development of an Impact-Oriented Quantitative Coastal Inundation forecasting and early warning system with social and economic assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fakhruddin, S. H. M.; Babel, Mukand S.; Kawasaki, Akiyuki

2014-05-01

Coastal inundations are an increasing threat to the lives and livelihoods of people living in low-lying, highly-populated coastal areas. According to a World Bank Report in 2005, at least 2.6 million people may have drowned due to coastal inundation, particularly caused by storm surges, over the last 200 years. Forecasting and prediction of natural events, such as tropical and extra-tropical cyclones, inland flooding, and severe winter weather, provide critical guidance to emergency managers and decision-makers from the local to the national level, with the goal of minimizing both human and economic losses. This guidance is used to facilitate evacuation route planning, post-disaster response and resource deployment, and critical infrastructure protection and securing, and it must be available within a time window in which decision makers can take appropriate action. Recognizing this extreme vulnerability of coastal areas to inundation/flooding, and with a view to improve safety-related services for the community, research should strongly enhance today's forecasting, prediction and early warning capabilities in order to improve the assessment of coastal vulnerability and risks and develop adequate prevention, mitigation and preparedness measures. This paper tries to develop an impact-oriented quantitative coastal inundation forecasting and early warning system with social and economic assessment to address the challenges faced by coastal communities to enhance their safety and to support sustainable development, through the improvement of coastal inundation forecasting and warning systems.

Prediction of Winter Storm Tracks and Intensities Using the GFDL fvGFS Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rees, S.; Boaggio, K.; Marchok, T.; Morin, M.; Lin, S. J.

2017-12-01

The GFDL Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical core (FV3) is coupled to a modified version of the Global Forecast System (GFS) physics and initial conditions, to form the fvGFS model. This model is similar to the one being implemented as the next-generation operational weather model for the NWS, which is also FV3-powered. Much work has been done to verify fvGFS tropical cyclone prediction, but little has been done to verify winter storm prediction. These costly and dangerous storms impact parts of the U.S. every year. To verify winter storms we ran the NCEP operational cyclone tracker, developed at GFDL, on semi-real-time 13 km horizontal resolution fvGFS forecasts. We have found that fvGFS compares well to the operational GFS in storm track and intensity, though often predicts slightly higher intensities. This presentation will show the track and intensity verification from the past two winter seasons and explore possible reasons for bias.

Application of an extreme winter storm scenario to identify vulnerabilities, mitigation options, and science needs in the Sierra Nevada mountains, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Albano, Christine M.; Dettinger, Michael; McCarthy, Maureen; Schaller, Kevin D.; Wellborn, Toby; Cox, Dale A.

2016-01-01

In the Sierra Nevada mountains (USA), and geographically similar areas across the globe where human development is expanding, extreme winter storm and flood risks are expected to increase with changing climate, heightening the need for communities to assess risks and better prepare for such events. In this case study, we demonstrate a novel approach to examining extreme winter storm and flood risks. We incorporated high-resolution atmospheric–hydrologic modeling of the ARkStorm extreme winter storm scenario with multiple modes of engagement with practitioners, including a series of facilitated discussions and a tabletop emergency management exercise, to develop a regional assessment of extreme storm vulnerabilities, mitigation options, and science needs in the greater Lake Tahoe region of Northern Nevada and California, USA. Through this process, practitioners discussed issues of concern across all phases of the emergency management life cycle, including preparation, response, recovery, and mitigation. Interruption of transportation, communications, and interagency coordination were among the most pressing concerns, and specific approaches for addressing these issues were identified, including prepositioning resources, diversifying communications systems, and improving coordination among state, tribal, and public utility practitioners. Science needs included expanding real-time monitoring capabilities to improve the precision of meteorological models and enhance situational awareness, assessing vulnerabilities of critical infrastructure, and conducting cost–benefit analyses to assess opportunities to improve both natural and human-made infrastructure to better withstand extreme storms. Our approach and results can be used to support both land use and emergency planning activities aimed toward increasing community resilience to extreme winter storm hazards in mountainous regions.

Satellite Shows Developing U.S. Nor'easter

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-01-26

National Weather Service forecasters have been tracking a low pressure area that moved from the Midwest into the Atlantic Ocean today, and is expected to become a strong nor'easter that will bring blizzard conditions to the northeastern U.S. The path of the system was captured in a NASA movie of NOAA's GOES-East satellite imagery. (This GOES 13 image was captured on January 26, 2015 at 1445 UTC.) On Monday, January 26, 2015, the National Weather Service noted: A storm system off the East Coast will continue to strengthen as it develops into a major nor'easter on Monday. As the storm moves up the coast, it is expected to bring snowfall of 1-3 feet or more to many parts of the Northeast through Tuesday evening, including New York City and Boston. Strong, gusty winds will combine with the snow to create blizzard conditions along and near the coast. Winter storm warnings are in effect for the panhandles of West Virginia and Maryland, much of interior New England down to the northern Mid-Atlantic as well as for Nantucket Island, Massachusetts. Winter weather advisories are in effect for portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and the southern Appalachians as well as a narrow area across interior New England. To create the video and imagery, NASA/NOAA's GOES Project located at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland overlays the cloud data from NOAA's GOES-East satellite on a true-color image of land and ocean created by data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, or MODIS, instrument that flies aboard NASA's Aqua and Terra satellites. Together, these data create the entire animation of the storm and show its movement. GOES satellites provide the kind of continuous monitoring necessary for intensive data analysis. Geostationary describes an orbit in which a satellite is always in the same position with respect to the rotating Earth. This allows GOES to hover continuously over one position on Earth's surface, appearing stationary. As a result, GOES provide a constant vigil for the atmospheric "triggers" for severe weather conditions such as tornadoes, flash floods, hail storms and hurricanes. For updated information about the storm system, visit NOAA's NWS website: www.weather.gov For more information about GOES satellites, visit: www.goes.noaa.gov/ or goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/ Rob Gutro NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center

Satellite Shows Developing U.S. Nor'easter

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-01-26

National Weather Service forecasters have been tracking a low pressure area that moved from the Midwest into the Atlantic Ocean today, and is expected to become a strong nor'easter that will bring blizzard conditions to the northeastern U.S. The path of the system was captured in a NASA movie of NOAA's GOES-East satellite imagery. On Monday, January 26, 2015, the National Weather Service noted: A storm system off the East Coast will continue to strengthen as it develops into a major nor'easter on Monday. As the storm moves up the coast, it is expected to bring snowfall of 1-3 feet or more to many parts of the Northeast through Tuesday evening, including New York City and Boston. Strong, gusty winds will combine with the snow to create blizzard conditions along and near the coast. Winter storm warnings are in effect for the panhandles of West Virginia and Maryland, much of interior New England down to the northern Mid-Atlantic as well as for Nantucket Island, Massachusetts. Winter weather advisories are in effect for portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and the southern Appalachians as well as a narrow area across interior New England. To create the video and imagery, NASA/NOAA's GOES Project located at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland overlays the cloud data from NOAA's GOES-East satellite on a true-color image of land and ocean created by data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, or MODIS, instrument that flies aboard NASA's Aqua and Terra satellites. Together, these data create the entire animation of the storm and show its movement. GOES satellites provide the kind of continuous monitoring necessary for intensive data analysis. Geostationary describes an orbit in which a satellite is always in the same position with respect to the rotating Earth. This allows GOES to hover continuously over one position on Earth's surface, appearing stationary. As a result, GOES provide a constant vigil for the atmospheric "triggers" for severe weather conditions such as tornadoes, flash floods, hail storms and hurricanes. For updated information about the storm system, visit NOAA's NWS website: www.weather.gov For more information about GOES satellites, visit: www.goes.noaa.gov/ or goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/ Rob Gutro NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center

Large Scale Drivers for the Extreme Storm Season over the North Atlantic and the UK in Winter 2013-14

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wild, Simon; Befort, Daniel J.; Leckebusch, Gregor C.

2016-04-01

The British Isles experienced exceptional stormy and rainy weather conditions in winter 2013-2014 while large parts of central North America recorded near record minimum surface temperatures values. Potential drivers for these cold conditions include increasingly warm surface waters of the tropical west Pacific. It has been suggested these increasing sea surface temperatures could also be the cause for extreme weather over the Europe, particularly the UK. Testing this hypothesis, we investigate mechanisms linking the tropical west Pacific and European wind storm activity. We will firstly analyse anomaly patterns along such a potential link in winter 2013-14. Secondly, we will investigate whether these identified anomaly patterns show a strong interannual relationship in the recent past. Our results, using primarily ERA-Interim Reanalysis from 1979 to 2014, show an absolute maximum of wind storm frequency over the northeast Atlantic and the British Isles in winter 2013-14. We also find absolute minimum surface temperatures in central North America and increased convective activity over the tropical west Pacific in the same season. The winter 2013-14 was additionally characterized by anomalous warm sea surface temperatures over the subtropical northwest Atlantic. Although the interannual variability of wind storms in the northeast Atlantic and surface temperatures in North America are significantly anti-correlated, we cannot directly relate wind storm frequency with tropical west Pacific anomalies. We thus conclude that the conditions over the Pacific in winter 2013-14 were favourable but not sufficient to explain the record number of wind storms in this season. Instead, we suggest that warm north Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies in combination with cold surface temperatures over North America played a more important role for generating higher wind storm counts over the northeast Atlantic and the UK.

Rapid wave and storm surge warning system for tropical cyclones in Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Appendini, C. M.; Rosengaus, M.; Meza, R.; Camacho, V.

2015-12-01

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, is responsible for the forecast of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific basins. As such, Mexico, Central America and Caribbean countries depend on the information issued by the NHC related to the characteristics of a particular tropical cyclone and associated watch and warning areas. Despite waves and storm surge are important hazards for marine operations and coastal dwellings, their forecast is not part of the NHC responsibilities. This work presents a rapid wave and storm surge warning system based on 3100 synthetic tropical cyclones doing landfall in Mexico. Hydrodynamic and wave models were driven by the synthetic events to create a robust database composed of maximum envelops of wind speed, significant wave height and storm surge for each event. The results were incorporated into a forecast system that uses the NHC advisory to locate the synthetic events passing inside specified radiuses for the present and forecast position of the real event. Using limited computer resources, the system displays the information meeting the search criteria, and the forecaster can select specific events to generate the desired hazard map (i.e. wind, waves, and storm surge) based on the maximum envelop maps. This system was developed in a limited time frame to be operational in 2015 by the National Hurricane and Severe Storms Unit of the Mexican National Weather Service, and represents a pilot project for other countries in the region not covered by detailed storm surge and waves forecasts.

Storm Warnings for Cuba

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-01-01

Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Internet : order@rand.org. al Accesion For "Ni %&’ Storm WarningsDTI’ TAB E03 --- - - -for...reaction leading to an uncontrol- lable burgeoning of private entrepreneurial activity. As one observer 14See Acuerdo del Buro Politico , "Para llevar a...34 10Comisi6n de Relaciones Internacionales, Asamblea Nacional del Poder Popular, Datos, Reflexiones y Argumentos Sobre la Actual Situaci6n de Cuba, n.p

Storm-based Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Probabilities and Warnings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calhoun, K. M.; Meyer, T.; Kingfield, D.

2017-12-01

A new cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning probability algorithm has been developed using machine-learning methods. With storm-based inputs of Earth Networks' in-cloud lightning, Vaisala's CG lightning, multi-radar/multi-sensor (MRMS) radar derived products including the Maximum Expected Size of Hail (MESH) and Vertically Integrated Liquid (VIL), and near storm environmental data including lapse rate and CAPE, a random forest algorithm was trained to produce probabilities of CG lightning up to one-hour in advance. As part of the Prototype Probabilistic Hazard Information experiment in the Hazardous Weather Testbed in 2016 and 2017, National Weather Service forecasters were asked to use this CG lightning probability guidance to create rapidly updating probability grids and warnings for the threat of CG lightning for 0-60 minutes. The output from forecasters was shared with end-users, including emergency managers and broadcast meteorologists, as part of an integrated warning team.

Reconstruction of Atlantic historical winter coastal storms in the Spanish coasts of the Gulf of Cadiz, 1929-2005

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribera, P.; Gallego, D.; Pena-Ortiz, C.; Del Rio, L.; Plomaritis, T. A.; Benavente, J.

2011-06-01

This paper presents the reconstruction of a climatological series of winter coastal storms on the northern coasts of the Gulf of Cadiz. This series has been put together using information extracted from regional and local Spanish newspapers. It includes all the storms coming from the Atlantic sector that have been detected during the winter season, from October to March, between 1929 and 2005. In order to validate this historical storm series, it has been compared with storms series identified from quasi-observational data and using different wave heights as thresholds to decide what is to be considered as a coastal storm. Nearly 2.6 reports per year about coastal storms are published in the press which correspond to waves of 3.6 m high or more and to prevailing winds from a direction ranging between SSW and WNW. A long- term positive trend has been detected for the complete storm series. If only the instrumental period is analysed, no significant trend is detected. It is suggested that this difference might be associated with the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation over the occurrence of storms in this area.

Emergency assessments of postfire debris-flow hazards for the 2009 La Brea, Jesusita, Guiberson, Morris, Sheep, Oak Glen, Pendleton, and Cottonwood fires in southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Rupert, Michael G.; Michael, John A.

2010-01-01

This report presents an emergency assessment of potential debris-flow hazards from basins burned by the 2009 La Brea and Jesusita fires in Santa Barbara County, the Guiberson fire in Ventura County, the Morris fire in Los Angeles County, the Sheep, Oak Glen, and Pendleton fires in San Bernardino County, and the Cottonwood fire in Riverside County, southern California. Statistical-empirical models developed to analyze postfire debris flows are used to estimate the probability and volume of debris-flows produced from drainage basins within each of the burned areas. Debris-flow probabilities and volumes are estimated as functions of different measures of basin burned extent, gradient, and material properties in response to both a 3-hour-duration, 2-year-recurrence thunderstorm and to a widespread, 12-hour-duration, 2-year-recurrence winter storm. This assessment provides critical information for issuing warnings, locating and designing mitigation measures, and planning evacuation timing and routes within the first two winters following the fire.

The effects of storms and storm-generated currents on sand beaches in Southern Maine, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hill, H.W.; Kelley, J.T.; Belknap, D.F.; Dickson, S.M.

2004-01-01

Storms are one of the most important controls on the cycle of erosion and accretion on beaches. Current meters placed in shoreface locations of Saco Bay and Wells Embayment, ME, recorded bottom currents during the winter months of 2000 and 2001, while teams of volunteers profiled the topography of nearby beaches. Coupling offshore meteorological and beach profile data made it possible to determine the response of nine beaches in southern Maine to various oceanographic and meteorological conditions. The beaches selected for profiling ranged from pristine to completely developed and permitted further examination of the role of seawalls on the response of beaches to storms. Current meters documented three unique types of storms: frontal passages, southwest storms, and northeast storms. In general, the current meter results indicate that frontal passages and southwest storms were responsible for bringing sediment towards the shore, while northeast storms resulted in a net movement of sediment away from the beach. During the 1999-2000 winter, there were a greater percentage of frontal passages and southwest storms, while during the 2000-2001 winter, there were more northeast storms. The sediment that was transported landward during the 1999-2000 winter was reworked into the berm along moderately and highly developed beaches during the next summer. A northeast storm on March 5-6, 2001, resulted in currents in excess of 1 m s-1 and wave heights that reached six meters. The storm persisted over 10 high tides and caused coastal flooding and property damage. Topographic profiles made before and after the storm demonstrate that developed beaches experienced a loss of sediment volume during the storm, while sediment was redistributed along the profile on moderately developed and undeveloped beaches. Two months after the storm, the profiles along the developed beaches had not reached their pre-storm elevation. In comparison, the moderately developed and undeveloped beaches reached and exceeded their pre-storm elevation and began to show berm buildup characteristic of the summer months. ?? 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Electrification in winter storms and the analysis of thunderstorm overflight data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brook, Marx

1993-01-01

We have been focusing our study of electrification in winter storms on the lightning initiation process, making inferences about the magnitude of the electric fields from the initial pulses associated with breakdown, i.e., with the formation of the initial streamers. The essence of the most significant finding is as follows: (1) initial breakdown radiation pulses from stepped leaders prior to the first return stroke are very large, reaching values of 20-30 Volts/meter, comparable to return stroke radiation; and (2) the duration of the stepped leader, from the initial detectable radiation pulse to the return stroke onset, is very-short-ranging from a minimum 1.5 ms to a maximum of 4.5 ms. This past summer (June-August of 1991) we participated in the CAPE program at the Kennedy Space Center in order to acquire data on stepped leaders in summer storms with the same equipment used to get the winter storm data. We discovered that the vigorous leaders seen in winter so frequently were present in summer storms, although not as large in amplitude and certainly not as frequent.

Integration of the Total Lightning Jump Algorithm into Current Operational Warning Environment Conceptual Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schultz, Christopher J.; Carey, Lawrence D.; Schultz, Elise V.; Stano, Geoffrey T.; Gatlin, Patrick N.

2013-01-01

The presence and rates of total lightning are both correlated to and physically dependent upon storm updraft strength, mixed phase precipitation volume and the size of the charging zone. The updraft modulates the ingredients necessary for electrification within a thunderstorm, while the updraft also plays a critical role in the development of severe and hazardous weather. Therefore utilizing this relationship, the monitoring of lightning rates and jumps provides an additional piece of information on the evolution of a thunderstorm, more often than not, at higher temporal resolution than current operational radar systems. This correlation is the basis for the total lightning jump algorithm that has been developed in recent years. In order to become a viable option for operational forecasters to incorporate into their severe storm monitoring process, the total lightning jump must be placed into the framework of several severe storm conceptual models (e.g., radar evolution, storm morphology) which forecasters have built through training and experience. Thus, one of the goals of this study is to examine and relate the lightning jump concept to often used radar parameters (e.g., dBZ vertical structure, VIL, MESH, MESO/shear) in the warning environment. Tying lightning trends and lightning jump occurrences to these radar based parameters will provide forecasters with an additional tool that they can use to build an accurate realtime depiction as to what is going on in a given environment. Furthermore, relating the lightning jump concept to these parameters could also increase confidence in a warning decision they have already made, help tip the scales on whether or not to warn on a given storm, or to draw the forecaster s attention to a particular storm that is rapidly developing. Furthermore the lightning information will add vital storm scale information in regions that are not well covered by radar, or when radar failures occur. The physical basis for the lightning jump algorithm in relation to severe storm dynamics and microphysics is a key component that must be further explored. Many radar studies have examined flash rates and their relation to updraft strength, updraft volume, precipitation -sized ice mass, etc.; however, very few have related the concept of the lightning jump and manifestation of severe weather to storm dynamics and microphysics using multi -Doppler and polarimetric radar techniques. Therefore, the second half of this study will combine the lightning jump algorithm and these radar techniques in order to place the lightning jump concept into a physical and dynamical framework. This analysis includes examining such parameters as mixed phase precipitation volume, charging zone, updraft strength and updraft volume. Such a study should provide increased understanding of and confidence in the strengths and limitations of the lightning jump algorithm in the storm warning process.

From cyclone tracks to the costs of European winter storms: A probabilistic loss assessment model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renggli, Dominik; Corti, Thierry; Reese, Stefan; Wueest, Marc; Viktor, Elisabeth; Zimmerli, Peter

2014-05-01

The quantitative assessment of the potential losses of European winter storms is essential for the economic viability of a global reinsurance company. For this purpose, reinsurance companies generally use probabilistic loss assessment models. This work presents an innovative approach to develop physically meaningful probabilistic events for Swiss Re's new European winter storm loss model. The meteorological hazard component of the new model is based on cyclone and windstorm tracks identified in the 20th Century Reanalysis data. The knowledge of the evolution of winter storms both in time and space allows the physically meaningful perturbation of properties of historical events (e.g. track, intensity). The perturbation includes a random element but also takes the local climatology and the evolution of the historical event into account. The low-resolution wind footprints taken from 20th Century Reanalysis are processed by a statistical-dynamical downscaling to generate high-resolution footprints of the historical and probabilistic winter storm events. Downscaling transfer functions are generated using ENSEMBLES regional climate model data. The result is a set of reliable probabilistic events representing thousands of years. The event set is then combined with country- and risk-specific vulnerability functions and detailed market- or client-specific exposure information to compute (re-)insurance risk premiums.

Prominent November Coldwaves in the North Central United States Since 1901.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wendland, Wayne M.

1987-06-01

The frequency and intensity of early winter (November) coldwaves were investigated for the north central United States. Twenty-two such storms occurred from 1901 to 1985, and were most frequent in the 1950s and early 1960s, and again from the mid 1970s to the present.November coldwaves are most often the result of Colorado cyclones moving to the cast northeast. On average, temperature declines of 22°C or more within 24 hours, falling to at least 0°C, impacted about 40 percent of the 12-state region. The storms were most often accompanied by strong winds, wind chill, heavy snow to the west, and thunderstorms to the cast, i.e., the trappings of a severe winter storm. Many of these storms inflicted severe damage on land and on the Great Lakes, sometimes taking lives of those not anticipating such a severe "winter" storm in November.

Communicating Storm Surge Forecast Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troutman, J. A.; Rhome, J.

2015-12-01

When it comes to tropical cyclones, storm surge is often the greatest threat to life and property along the coastal United States. The coastal population density has dramatically increased over the past 20 years, putting more people at risk. Informing emergency managers, decision-makers and the public about the potential for wind driven storm surge, however, has been extremely difficult. Recently, the Storm Surge Unit at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida has developed a prototype experimental storm surge watch/warning graphic to help communicate this threat more effectively by identifying areas most at risk for life-threatening storm surge. This prototype is the initial step in the transition toward a NWS storm surge watch/warning system and highlights the inundation levels that have a 10% chance of being exceeded. The guidance for this product is the Probabilistic Hurricane Storm Surge (P-Surge) model, which predicts the probability of various storm surge heights by statistically evaluating numerous SLOSH model simulations. Questions remain, however, if exceedance values in addition to the 10% may be of equal importance to forecasters. P-Surge data from 2014 Hurricane Arthur is used to ascertain the practicality of incorporating other exceedance data into storm surge forecasts. Extracting forecast uncertainty information through analyzing P-surge exceedances overlaid with track and wind intensity forecasts proves to be beneficial for forecasters and decision support.

Eurasian Winter Storm Activity at the End of the Century: A CMIP5 Multi-model Ensemble Projection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basu, Soumik; Zhang, Xiangdong; Wang, Zhaomin

2018-01-01

Extratropical cyclone activity over Eurasia has exhibited a weakening trend in the recent decade. Extratropical cyclones bring precipitation and hence supply fresh water for winter crops in the mid- and high-latitude regions of Eurasia. Any changes in extratropical cyclone activity over Eurasia in the future may have a critical impact on winter agriculture and the economies of affected communities. However, potential future changes in regional storm activity over Eurasia have not been studied in detail. Therefore, in this study, we investigate anticipated changes in extratropical storm activity by the end of the century through a detailed examination of the historical and future emission scenarios from six different models from CMIP5. A statistical analysis of different parameters of storm activity using a storm identification and tracking algorithm reveals a decrease in the number of storms over mid-latitude regions. However, intense storms with longer duration are projected over high latitude Eurasia. A further examination of the physical mechanism for these changes reveals that a decrease in the meridional temperature gradient and a weakening of the vertical wind shear over the mid-latitudes are responsible for these changes in storm activity.

Impacts of extratropical storm tracks on Arctic sea ice export through Fram Strait

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Jianfen; Zhang, Xiangdong; Wang, Zhaomin

2018-05-01

Studies have indicated regime shifts in atmospheric circulation, and associated changes in extratropical storm tracks and Arctic storm activity, in particular on the North Atlantic side of the Arctic Ocean. To improve understanding of changes in Arctic sea ice mass balance, we examined the impacts of the changed storm tracks and cyclone activity on Arctic sea ice export through Fram Strait by using a high resolution global ocean-sea ice model, MITgcm-ECCO2. The model was forced by the Japanese 25-year Reanalysis (JRA-25) dataset. The results show that storm-induced strong northerly wind stress can cause simultaneous response of daily sea ice export and, in turn, exert cumulative effects on interannual variability and long-term changes of sea ice export. Further analysis indicates that storm impact on sea ice export is spatially dependent. The storms occurring southeast of Fram Strait exhibit the largest impacts. The weakened intensity of winter (in this study winter is defined as October-March and summer as April-September) storms in this region after 1994/95 could be responsible for the decrease of total winter sea ice export during the same time period.

Snowpack-runoff relationships for mid-elevation snowpacks on the Workman Creek watersheds of Central Arizona

Treesearch

Gerald J. Gottfried; Daniel G. Neary; Peter F. Ffolliott

2002-01-01

Snowpacks in the southwestern United States melt intermittently throughout the winter. At some mid-elevation locations, between 7,000 and 7,500 ft, snowpacks appear and disappear, depending on the distribution of storms during relatively dry winters. Some winter precipitation can occur as rain during warm storms and is not reflected in the snow course data. The USDA...

Modelling the economic losses of historic and present-day high-impact winter storms in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welker, Christoph; Stucki, Peter; Bresch, David; Dierer, Silke; Martius, Olivia; Brönnimann, Stefan

2014-05-01

Severe winter storms such as "Vivian" in February 1990 and "Lothar" in December 1999 are among the most destructive meteorological hazards in Switzerland. Disaster severity resulting from such windstorms is attributable, on the one hand, to hazardous weather conditions such as high wind gust speeds; and on the other hand to socio-economic factors such as population density, distribution of values at risk, and damage susceptibility. For present-day winter storms, the data basis is generally good to describe the meteorological development and wind forces as well as the associated socio-economic impacts. In contrast, the information on historic windstorms is overall sparse and the available historic weather and loss reports mostly do not provide quantitative information. This study illustrates a promising technique to simulate the economic impacts of both historic and present winter storms in Switzerland since end of the 19th century. Our approach makes use of the novel Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) spanning 1871-present. The 2-degree spatial resolution of the global 20CR dataset is relatively coarse. Thus, the complex orography of Switzerland is not realistically represented, which has considerable ramifications for the representation of wind systems that are strongly influenced by the local orography, such as Föhn winds. Therefore, a dynamical downscaling of the 20CR to 3 km resolution using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was performed, for in total 40 high-impact winter storms in Switzerland since 1871. Based on the downscaled wind gust speeds and the climada loss model, the estimated economic losses were calculated at municipality level for current economic and social conditions. With this approach, we find an answer to the question what would be the economic losses of e.g. a hazardous Föhn storm - which occurred in northern Switzerland in February 1925 - today, i.e. under current socio-economic conditions. Encouragingly, the pattern of simulated losses for this specific storm is very similar to historic loss reports. A comparison of wind gust speeds with simulated storm losses for all highly damaging winter storms in Switzerland since the late 19th century considered in this study shows that storm losses have been related primarily to population density (and distribution of values at risk, respectively) rather than hazardous wind speed.

Perceptions and Expected Immediate Reactions to Severe Storm Displays.

PubMed

Jon, Ihnji; Huang, Shih-Kai; Lindell, Michael K

2017-11-09

The National Weather Service has adopted warning polygons that more specifically indicate the risk area than its previous county-wide warnings. However, these polygons are not defined in terms of numerical strike probabilities (p s ). To better understand people's interpretations of warning polygons, 167 participants were shown 23 hypothetical scenarios in one of three information conditions-polygon-only (Condition A), polygon + tornadic storm cell (Condition B), and polygon + tornadic storm cell + flanking nontornadic storm cells (Condition C). Participants judged each polygon's p s and reported the likelihood of taking nine different response actions. The polygon-only condition replicated the results of previous studies; p s was highest at the polygon's centroid and declined in all directions from there. The two conditions displaying storm cells differed from the polygon-only condition only in having p s just as high at the polygon's edge nearest the storm cell as at its centroid. Overall, p s values were positively correlated with expectations of continuing normal activities, seeking information from social sources, seeking shelter, and evacuating by car. These results indicate that participants make more appropriate p s judgments when polygons are presented in their natural context of radar displays than when they are presented in isolation. However, the fact that p s judgments had moderately positive correlations with both sheltering (a generally appropriate response) and evacuation (a generally inappropriate response) suggests that experiment participants experience the same ambivalence about these two protective actions as people threatened by actual tornadoes. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

What caused the Extreme Storm Season over the North Atlantic and the UK in Winter 2013-14?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leckebusch, G. C.; Wild, S.; Befort, D. J.

2015-12-01

In winter 2013-2014, the UK experienced exceptional stormy and rainy weather conditions. Concurrently, surface temperatures over large parts of central North America fell to near record minimum values. One potential driver for these cold conditions is discussed to be the increasingly warm surface waters of the tropical west Pacific. It has been suggested these increasing sea surface temperatures could also be the cause for extreme weather over the British Isles. Testing this hypothesis, we investigate mechanisms linking the tropical west Pacific and European wind storm activity. We focus on two research questions. Firstly: Was a chain of anomaly patterns with origin in the west Pacific present in the winter 2013-14? And secondly: Can centres of action along such a chain be identified with a strong interannual relationship in the recent past? Our results, using primarily ERA-Interim Reanalysis from 1979 to 2014, show an absolute maximum of wind storm frequency over the northeast Atlantic and the British Isles in winter 2013-14. We also find absolute minimum surface temperatures in central North America and increased convective activity over the tropical west Pacific in the same season. The winter 2013-14 was additionally characterized by anomalous warm sea surface temperatures over the subtropical northwest Atlantic. Although the interannual variability of wind storms in the northeast Atlantic and surface temperatures in North America are significantly anti-correlated, we cannot directly relate wind storm frequency with tropical west Pacific anomalies. We thus conclude that the conditions over the Pacific in winter 2013-14 were favourable but not sufficient to explain the record number of wind storms in this season. Instead, we suggest that warm north Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies in combination with cold surface temperatures over North America played a more important role for generating higher wind storm counts over the northeast Atlantic and the UK.

Risk of Fall-Related Injury due to Adverse Weather Events, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 2006-2011.

PubMed

Gevitz, Kathryn; Madera, Robbie; Newbern, Claire; Lojo, José; Johnson, Caroline C

Following a surge in fall-related visits to local hospital emergency departments (EDs) after a severe ice storm, the Philadelphia Department of Public Health examined the association between inclement winter weather events and fall-related ED visits during a 5-year period. Using a standardized set of keywords, we identified fall-related injuries in ED chief complaint logs submitted as part of Philadelphia Department of Public Health's syndromic surveillance from December 2006 through March 2011. We compared days when falls exceeded the winter fall threshold (ie, "high-fall days") with control days within the same winter season. We then conducted matched case-control analysis to identify weather and patient characteristics related to increased fall-related ED visits. Fifteen high-fall days occurred during winter months in the 5-year period. In multivariable analysis, 18- to 64-year-olds were twice as likely to receive ED care for fall-related injuries on high-fall days than on control days. The crude odds of ED visits occurring from 7:00 am to 10:59 am were 70% higher on high-fall days vs control days. Snow was a predictor of a high-fall day: the adjusted odds of snow before a high-fall day as compared with snow before a control day was 13.4. The association between the number of fall-related ED visits and weather-related fall injuries, age, and timing suggests that many events occurred en route to work in the morning. Promoting work closures or delaying openings after severe winter weather would allow time for better snow or ice removal, and including "fall risk" in winter weather advisories might effectively warn morning commuters. Both strategies could help reduce the number of weather-related fall injuries.

Weather warnings predict fall-related injuries among older adults.

PubMed

Mondor, Luke; Charland, Katia; Verma, Aman; Buckeridge, David L

2015-05-01

weather predictions are a useful tool for informing public health planning and prevention strategies for non-injury health outcomes, but the association between winter weather warnings and fall-related injuries has not been assessed previously. to examine the association between fall-related injuries among older adults and government-issued winter weather warnings. using a dynamic cohort of individuals ≥65 years of age who lived in Montreal between 1998 and 2006, we identified all fall-related injuries from administrative data using a validated set of diagnostic and procedure codes. We compared rates of injuries on days with freezing rain or snowstorm warnings to rates observed on days without warnings. We also compared the incidence of injuries on winter days to non-winter days. All analyses were performed overall and stratified by age and sex. freezing rain alerts were associated with an increase in fall-related injuries (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.20, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08-1.32), particularly among males (IRR = 1.31, 95% CI: 1.10-1.56), and lower rates of injuries were associated with snowstorm alerts (IRR = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.80-0.99). The rate of fall-related injuries did not differ seasonally (IRR = 1.00, 95% CI: 0.97-1.03). official weather warnings are predictive of increases in fall-related injuries among older adults. Public health agencies should consider using these warnings to trigger initiation of injury prevention strategies in advance of inclement weather. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

47 CFR 80.141 - General provisions for ship stations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... storm, subfreezing air temperatures associated with gale force winds causing severe icing on superstructures, or winds of force 10 or above on the Beaufort scale for which no storm warning has been received...

47 CFR 80.141 - General provisions for ship stations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... storm, subfreezing air temperatures associated with gale force winds causing severe icing on superstructures, or winds of force 10 or above on the Beaufort scale for which no storm warning has been received...

47 CFR 80.141 - General provisions for ship stations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... storm, subfreezing air temperatures associated with gale force winds causing severe icing on superstructures, or winds of force 10 or above on the Beaufort scale for which no storm warning has been received...

47 CFR 80.141 - General provisions for ship stations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... storm, subfreezing air temperatures associated with gale force winds causing severe icing on superstructures, or winds of force 10 or above on the Beaufort scale for which no storm warning has been received...

47 CFR 80.141 - General provisions for ship stations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... storm, subfreezing air temperatures associated with gale force winds causing severe icing on superstructures, or winds of force 10 or above on the Beaufort scale for which no storm warning has been received...

Clustering of European winter storms: A multi-model perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renggli, Dominik; Buettner, Annemarie; Scherb, Anke; Straub, Daniel; Zimmerli, Peter

2016-04-01

The storm series over Europe in 1990 (Daria, Vivian, Wiebke, Herta) and 1999 (Anatol, Lothar, Martin) are very well known. Such clusters of severe events strongly affect the seasonally accumulated damage statistics. The (re)insurance industry has quantified clustering by using distribution assumptions deduced from the historical storm activity of the last 30 to 40 years. The use of storm series simulated by climate models has only started recently. Climate model runs can potentially represent 100s to 1000s of years, allowing a more detailed quantification of clustering than the history of the last few decades. However, it is unknown how sensitive the representation of clustering is to systematic biases. Using a multi-model ensemble allows quantifying that uncertainty. This work uses CMIP5 decadal ensemble hindcasts to study clustering of European winter storms from a multi-model perspective. An objective identification algorithm extracts winter storms (September to April) in the gridded 6-hourly wind data. Since the skill of European storm predictions is very limited on the decadal scale, the different hindcast runs are interpreted as independent realizations. As a consequence, the available hindcast ensemble represents several 1000 simulated storm seasons. The seasonal clustering of winter storms is quantified using the dispersion coefficient. The benchmark for the decadal prediction models is the 20th Century Reanalysis. The decadal prediction models are able to reproduce typical features of the clustering characteristics observed in the reanalysis data. Clustering occurs in all analyzed models over the North Atlantic and European region, in particular over Great Britain and Scandinavia as well as over Iberia (i.e. the exit regions of the North Atlantic storm track). Clustering is generally weaker in the models compared to reanalysis, although the differences between different models are substantial. In contrast to existing studies, clustering is driven by weak and moderate events, and not by extreme storms. Thus, the decision which climate model to use to quantify clustering can have a substantial impact on the risk assessment in the (re)insurance business.

Satellite Shows Major Winter Storm Hitting the U.S. South

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-02-11

Clouds associated with the major winter storm that is bringing wintry precipitation and chilly temperatures to the U.S. south is the focus in an image from NOAA's GOES-East satellite today, February 12 at 1310 UTC/ 8:10 EST. Rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow are part of the large front that stretches from eastern Texas to the Carolinas in the Geostationary Operational Environmental satellite or GOES image. NOAA's weather maps show several areas of low pressure along the frontal boundary. One low pressure is in the northern Gulf of Mexico, while the other is in the Atlantic Ocean, just south of South Carolina. (Insert link: www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/noaa/noaad1.gif). NOAA's National Weather Service has been issuing watches and warnings throughout the south that extend along Mid-Atlantic east coast. The visible cloud and ground snow data in this image was taken from NOAA's GOES-East satellite. The image was created by the NASA GOES Project at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. The clouds and fallen snow were overlaid on a true-color image of land and ocean created by data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer or MODIS instrument that flies aboard NASA's Aqua and Terra satellites. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, or WPC noted on Feb. 11 at 3:59 a.m. EST, "Once the intensifying surface low moves off the Southeast coast and begins its track up the Eastern Seaboard Wednesday night...winter weather will start lifting northward into the northern Mid-Atlantic states." GOES satellites provide the kind of continuous monitoring necessary for intensive data analysis. Geostationary describes an orbit in which a satellite is always in the same position with respect to the rotating Earth. This allows GOES to hover continuously over one position on Earth's surface, appearing stationary. As a result, GOES provide a constant vigil for the atmospheric "triggers" for severe weather conditions such as tornadoes, flash floods, hail storms and hurricanes. For updated information about the storm system, visit NOAA's WPC website; www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ For more information about GOES satellites, visit: www.goes.noaa.gov/ or goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/ Rob Gutro NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Ionospheric storms—A challenge for empirical forecast of the total electron content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borries, C.; Berdermann, J.; Jakowski, N.; Wilken, V.

2015-04-01

Since the last decades, the functioning of society depends more and more on well-functioning communication and navigation systems. As the availability and reliability of most of these satellite-based systems can be severely impacted by ionospheric storms, the accurate forecast of these events becomes a required task for mitigating social and economic risks. Here we aim to make initial steps toward an empirical model for ionospheric perturbations related to space weather events that are observable in the total electron content (TEC). The perturbation TEC forecast model will be a fast and robust approach, improving TEC forecasts based on climatological models during storm conditions. The derivation of such a model is a challenging task, because although a general dependence of the storm features (enhancement or depletion of electron density) on the storm onset time, local time, season and geomagnetic latitude is well known, there is a large deviation from the mean behavior. For a better understanding of storm conditions, this paper presents analyses of ionospheric storms observed in the TEC, broken down into diverse classes of storms. It provides a detailed characterization of the typical ionospheric storm behavior over Europe from high to midlatitudes, beyond case studies. Generally, the typical clear strong TEC enhancement starting in high latitudes and propagating equatorward is found to be strongest for storms starting in the morning hours independent of the season. In midlatitudes, it is strongest during noon. In addition, a clear difference between summer and winter storms is reported. While only winter storms develop high-latitude TEC enhancements, only summer storms typically exhibit TEC depletions during the storm recovery phase. During winter storms TEC enhancements can also occur the day following the storm onset, in contrast to summer storms. Strong correlation of TEC perturbation amplitudes to the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field and to a proxy of the polar cap potential are shown especially for summer midlatitude TEC enhancements during storms with and onset in the morning hours (6 to 12 UT over Europe) and for winter high-latitude TEC enhancements (around 60∘N). The results indicate the potential to derive improved predictions of maximum TEC deviations during space weather events, based on solar wind measurements.

Storm related closures of I-5 and I-90 : freight transportation economic impact assessment report, winter 2007-2008.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-09-01

This report documents the economic impact analysis undertaken by WSDOTs Freight Systems Division in response to the : storm-related closures of I-5 and I-90 in the winter 2007-2008. The closures were the result of severe weather that : overwhelmed...

Significantly Increased Extreme Precipitation Expected in Europe and North America from Extratropical Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawcroft, M.; Hodges, K.; Walsh, E.; Zappa, G.

2017-12-01

For the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, changes in circulation are key to determining the impacts of climate warming. The mechanisms governing these circulation changes are complex, leading to the well documented uncertainty in projections of the future location of the mid-latitude storm tracks simulated by climate models. These storms are the primary source of precipitation for North America and Europe and generate many of the large-scale precipitation extremes associated with flooding and severe economic loss. Here, we show that in spite of the uncertainty in circulation changes, by analysing the behaviour of the storms themselves, we find entirely consistent and robust projections across an ensemble of climate models. In particular, we find that projections of change in the most intensely precipitating storms (above the present day 99th percentile) in the Northern Hemisphere are substantial and consistent across models, with large increases in the frequency of both summer (June-August, +226±68%) and winter (December-February, +186±34%) extreme storms by the end of the century. Regionally, both North America (summer +202±129%, winter +232±135%) and Europe (summer +390±148%, winter +318±114%) are projected to experience large increases in the frequency of intensely precipitating storms. These changes are thermodynamic and driven by surface warming, rather than by changes in the dynamical behaviour of the storms. Such changes in storm behaviour have the potential to have major impacts on society given intensely precipitating storms are responsible for many large-scale flooding events.

Real-time ISEE data system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tsurutani, B. T.; Baker, D. N.

1979-01-01

A real-time ISEE data system directed toward predicting geomagnetic substorms and storms is discussed. Such a system may allow up to 60+ minutes advance warning of magnetospheric substorms and up to 30 minute warnings of geomagnetic storms (and other disturbances) induced by high-speed streams and solar flares. The proposed system utilizes existing capabilities of several agencies (NASA, NOAA, USAF), and thereby minimizes costs. This same concept may be applicable to data from other spacecraft, and other NASA centers; thus, each individual experimenter can receive quick-look data in real time at his or her base institution.

On the watch for geomagnetic storms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Green, Arthur W.; Brown, William M.

1997-01-01

Geomagnetic storms, induced by solar activity, pose significant hazards to satellites, electrical power distribution systems, radio communications, navigation, and geophysical surveys. Strong storms can expose astronauts and crews of high-flying aircraft to dangerous levels of radiation. Economic losses from recent geomagnetic storms have run into hundreds of millions of dollars. With the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) as the lead agency, an international network of geomagnetic observatories monitors the onset of solar-induced storms and gives warnings that help diminish losses to military and commercial operations and facilities.

Emergency Assessment of Postfire Debris-Flow Hazards for the 2009 Station Fire, San Gabriel Mountains, Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Rupert, Michael G.; Michael, John A.; Staley, Dennis M.; Worstell, Bruce B.

2009-01-01

This report presents an emergency assessment of potential debris-flow hazards from basins burned by the 2009 Station fire in Los Angeles County, southern California. Statistical-empirical models developed for postfire debris flows are used to estimate the probability and volume of debris-flow production from 678 drainage basins within the burned area and to generate maps of areas that may be inundated along the San Gabriel mountain front by the estimated volume of material. Debris-flow probabilities and volumes are estimated as combined functions of different measures of basin burned extent, gradient, and material properties in response to both a 3-hour-duration, 1-year-recurrence thunderstorm and to a 12-hour-duration, 2-year recurrence storm. Debris-flow inundation areas are mapped for scenarios where all sediment-retention basins are empty and where the basins are all completely full. This assessment provides critical information for issuing warnings, locating and designing mitigation measures, and planning evacuation timing and routes within the first two winters following the fire. Tributary basins that drain into Pacoima Canyon, Big Tujunga Canyon, Arroyo Seco, West Fork of the San Gabriel River, and Devils Canyon were identified as having probabilities of debris-flow occurrence greater than 80 percent, the potential to produce debris flows with volumes greater than 100,000 m3, and the highest Combined Relative Debris-Flow Hazard Ranking in response to both storms. The predicted high probability and large magnitude of the response to such short-recurrence storms indicates the potential for significant debris-flow impacts to any buildings, roads, bridges, culverts, and reservoirs located both within these drainages and downstream from the burned area. These areas will require appropriate debris-flow mitigation and warning efforts. Probabilities of debris-flow occurrence greater than 80 percent, debris-flow volumes between 10,000 and 100,000 m3, and high Combined Relative Debris-Flow Hazard Rankings were estimated in response to both short recurrence-interval (1- and 2-year) storms for all but the smallest basins along the San Gabriel mountain front between Big Tujunga Canyon and Arroyo Seco. The combination of high probabilities and large magnitudes determined for these basins indicates significant debris-flow hazards for neighborhoods along the mountain front. When the capacity of sediment-retention basins is exceeded, debris flows may be deposited in neighborhoods and streets and impact infrastructure between the mountain front and Foothill Boulevard. In addition, debris flows may be deposited in neighborhoods immediately below unprotected basins. Hazards to neighborhoods and structures at risk from these events will require appropriate debris-flow mitigation and warning efforts.

Snow Tweets: Emergency Information Dissemination in a US County During 2014 Winter Storms

PubMed Central

Bonnan-White, Jess; Shulman, Jason; Bielecke, Abigail

2014-01-01

Introduction: This paper describes how American federal, state, and local organizations created, sourced, and disseminated emergency information via social media in preparation for several winter storms in one county in the state of New Jersey (USA). Methods: Postings submitted to Twitter for three winter storm periods were collected from selected organizations, along with a purposeful sample of select private local users. Storm-related posts were analyzed for stylistic features (hashtags, retweet mentions, embedded URLs). Sharing and re-tweeting patterns were also mapped using NodeXL. Results: Results indicate emergency management entities were active in providing preparedness and response information during the selected winter weather events. A large number of posts, however, did not include unique Twitter features that maximize dissemination and discovery by users. Visual representations of interactions illustrate opportunities for developing stronger relationships among agencies. Discussion: Whereas previous research predominantly focuses on large-scale national or international disaster contexts, the current study instead provides needed analysis in a small-scale context. With practice during localized events like extreme weather, effective information dissemination in large events can be enhanced. PMID:25685629

Snow Tweets: Emergency Information Dissemination in a US County During 2014 Winter Storms.

PubMed

Bonnan-White, Jess; Shulman, Jason; Bielecke, Abigail

2014-12-22

This paper describes how American federal, state, and local organizations created, sourced, and disseminated emergency information via social media in preparation for several winter storms in one county in the state of New Jersey (USA). Postings submitted to Twitter for three winter storm periods were collected from selected organizations, along with a purposeful sample of select private local users. Storm-related posts were analyzed for stylistic features (hashtags, retweet mentions, embedded URLs). Sharing and re-tweeting patterns were also mapped using NodeXL. RESULTS indicate emergency management entities were active in providing preparedness and response information during the selected winter weather events. A large number of posts, however, did not include unique Twitter features that maximize dissemination and discovery by users. Visual representations of interactions illustrate opportunities for developing stronger relationships among agencies. Whereas previous research predominantly focuses on large-scale national or international disaster contexts, the current study instead provides needed analysis in a small-scale context. With practice during localized events like extreme weather, effective information dissemination in large events can be enhanced.

Probabilistic storm surge inundation maps for Metro Manila based on Philippine public storm warning signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tablazon, J.; Caro, C. V.; Lagmay, A. M. F.; Briones, J. B. L.; Dasallas, L.; Lapidez, J. P.; Santiago, J.; Suarez, J. K.; Ladiero, C.; Gonzalo, L. A.; Mungcal, M. T. F.; Malano, V.

2015-03-01

A storm surge is the sudden rise of sea water over the astronomical tides, generated by an approaching storm. This event poses a major threat to the Philippine coastal areas, as manifested by Typhoon Haiyan on 8 November 2013. This hydro-meteorological hazard is one of the main reasons for the high number of casualties due to the typhoon, with 6300 deaths. It became evident that the need to develop a storm surge inundation map is of utmost importance. To develop these maps, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology (DOST-Project NOAH) simulated historical tropical cyclones that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. The Japan Meteorological Agency storm surge model was used to simulate storm surge heights. The frequency distribution of the maximum storm surge heights was calculated using simulation results of tropical cyclones under a specific public storm warning signal (PSWS) that passed through a particular coastal area. This determines the storm surge height corresponding to a given probability of occurrence. The storm surge heights from the model were added to the maximum astronomical tide data from WXTide software. The team then created maps of inundation for a specific PSWS using the probability of exceedance derived from the frequency distribution. Buildings and other structures were assigned a probability of exceedance depending on their occupancy category, i.e., 1% probability of exceedance for critical facilities, 10% probability of exceedance for special occupancy structures, and 25% for standard occupancy and miscellaneous structures. The maps produced show the storm-surge-vulnerable areas in Metro Manila, illustrated by the flood depth of up to 4 m and extent of up to 6.5 km from the coastline. This information can help local government units in developing early warning systems, disaster preparedness and mitigation plans, vulnerability assessments, risk-sensitive land use plans, shoreline defense efforts, and coastal protection measures. These maps can also determine the best areas to build critical structures, or at least determine the level of protection of these structures should they be built in hazard areas. Moreover, these will support the local government units' mandate to raise public awareness, disseminate information about storm surge hazards, and implement appropriate countermeasures for a given PSWS.

From Cyclone Tracks to the Costs of European Winter Storms: A Probabilistic Loss Assessment Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orwig, K.; Renggli, D.; Corti, T.; Reese, S.; Wueest, M.; Viktor, E.; Zimmerli, P.

2014-12-01

European winter storms cause billions of dollars of insured losses every year. Therefore, it is essential to understand potential impacts of future events, and the role reinsurance can play to mitigate the losses. The authors will present an overview on natural catastrophe risk assessment modeling in the reinsurance industry, and the development of a new innovative approach for modeling the risk associated with European winter storms.The new innovative approach includes the development of physically meaningful probabilistic (i.e. simulated) events for European winter storm loss assessment. The meteorological hazard component of the new model is based on cyclone and windstorm tracks identified in the 20thCentury Reanalysis data. The knowledge of the evolution of winter storms both in time and space allows the physically meaningful perturbation of historical event properties (e.g. track, intensity, etc.). The perturbation includes a random element but also takes the local climatology and the evolution of the historical event into account.The low-resolution wind footprints taken from the 20thCentury Reanalysis are processed by a statistical-dynamical downscaling to generate high-resolution footprints for both the simulated and historical events. Downscaling transfer functions are generated using ENSEMBLES regional climate model data. The result is a set of reliable probabilistic events representing thousands of years. The event set is then combined with country and site-specific vulnerability functions and detailed market- or client-specific information to compute annual expected losses.

Decadal predictability of winter windstorm frequency in Eastern Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Höschel, Ines; Grieger, Jens; Ulbrich, Uwe

2017-04-01

Winter windstorms are one of the most impact relevant extreme-weather events in Europe. This study is focussed on windstorm frequency in Eastern Europe at multi-year time scale. Individual storms are identified by using 6-hourly 10m-wind-fields. The impact-oriented tracking algorithm is based on the exceedance of the local 98 percentile of wind speed and a minimum duration of 18 hours. Here, storm frequency is the number of 1000km-footprints of identified windstorms touching the location during extended boreal winter from October to March. The temporal development of annual storm frequencies in Eastern Europe shows variations on a six to fifteen years period. Higher than normal windstorm frequency occurred end of the 1950s and in beginning of the seventies, while lower than normal frequency were around 1960 and in the forties, for example. The correlation between bandpass filtered storm frequency and North Atlantic sea surface temperature shows a significant pattern with a positive correlation in the subtropical East Atlantic and significant negative correlations in the Gulfstream region. The relationship between these multi-year variations and predictability on decadal time scales is discussed. The resulting skill of winter wind storms in the German decadal prediction system MiKlip, based on the numerical earth system model MPI-ESM, will be presented.

Impacts of winter storms on air-sea gas exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Weiqing; Perrie, Will; Vagle, Svein

2006-07-01

The objective of this study is to investigate air-sea gas exchange during winter storms, using field measurements from Ocean Station Papa in the Northeast Pacific (50°N, 145°W). We show that increasing gas transfer rates are coincident with increasing winds and deepening depth of bubble penetration, and that this process depends on sea state. Wave-breaking is shown to be an important factor in the gas transfer velocity during the peaks of the storms, increasing the flux rates by up to 20%. Gas transfer rates and concentrations can exhibit asymmetry, reflecting a sudden increase with the onset of a storm, and gradual recovery stages.

Valley Fever: Earth Observations for Risk Reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sprigg, W. A.

2012-12-01

Advances in satellite Earth observation systems, numerical weather prediction, and dust storm modeling yield new tools for public health warnings, advisories and epidemiology of illnesses associated with airborne desert dust. Valley Fever, endemic from California through the US/Mexico border region into Central and South America, is triggered by inhalation of soil-dwelling fungal spores. The path from fungal growth to airborne threat depends on environmental conditions observable from satellite. And space-based sensors provide initial conditions for dust storm forecasts and baselines for the epidemiology of Valley Fever and other dust-borne aggravation of respiratory and cardiovascular disease. A new Pan-American Center for the World Meteorological Organization Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System creates an opportunity to advance Earth science applications in public health.

Toward an integrated storm surge application: ESA Storm Surge project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Boram; Donlon, Craig; Arino, Olivier

2010-05-01

Storm surges and their associated coastal inundation are major coastal marine hazards, both in tropical and extra-tropical areas. As sea level rises due to climate change, the impact of storm surges and associated extreme flooding may increase in low-lying countries and harbour cities. Of the 33 world cities predicted to have at least 8 million people by 2015, at least 21 of them are coastal including 8 of the 10 largest. They are highly vulnerable to coastal hazards including storm surges. Coastal inundation forecasting and warning systems depend on the crosscutting cooperation of different scientific disciplines and user communities. An integrated approach to storm surge, wave, sea-level and flood forecasting offers an optimal strategy for building improved operational forecasts and warnings capability for coastal inundation. The Earth Observation (EO) information from satellites has demonstrated high potential to enhanced coastal hazard monitoring, analysis, and forecasting; the GOCE geoid data can help calculating accurate positions of tide gauge stations within the GLOSS network. ASAR images has demonstrated usefulness in analysing hydrological situation in coastal zones with timely manner, when hazardous events occur. Wind speed and direction, which is the key parameters for storm surge forecasting and hindcasting, can be derived by using scatterometer data. The current issue is, although great deal of useful EO information and application tools exist, that sufficient user information on EO data availability is missing and that easy access supported by user applications and documentation is highly required. Clear documentation on the user requirements in support of improved storm surge forecasting and risk assessment is also needed at the present. The paper primarily addresses the requirements for data, models/technologies, and operational skills, based on the results from the recent Scientific and Technical Symposium on Storm Surges (www.surgesymposium.org, organized by the WMO-IOC Joint technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology, JCOMM) and following activities, that have been supported by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO through JCOMM. The paper also reviews the capabilities of storm surge models, and current status in using Earth Observation (EO) information for advancing storm surge application tools, and further, for improving operational forecasts and warning capability for coastal inundation. In this context, the plans and expected results of the ESA Storm Surge Project (2010-2011) will be introduced.

GIS-based estimation of the winter storm damage probability in forests: a case study from Baden-Wuerttemberg (Southwest Germany).

PubMed

Schindler, Dirk; Grebhan, Karin; Albrecht, Axel; Schönborn, Jochen; Kohnle, Ulrich

2012-01-01

Data on storm damage attributed to the two high-impact winter storms 'Wiebke' (28 February 1990) and 'Lothar' (26 December 1999) were used for GIS-based estimation and mapping (in a 50 × 50 m resolution grid) of the winter storm damage probability (P(DAM)) for the forests of the German federal state of Baden-Wuerttemberg (Southwest Germany). The P(DAM)-calculation was based on weights of evidence (WofE) methodology. A combination of information on forest type, geology, soil type, soil moisture regime, and topographic exposure, as well as maximum gust wind speed field was used to compute P(DAM) across the entire study area. Given the condition that maximum gust wind speed during the two storm events exceeded 35 m s(-1), the highest P(DAM) values computed were primarily where coniferous forest grows in severely exposed areas on temporarily moist soils on bunter sandstone formations. Such areas are found mainly in the mountainous ranges of the northern Black Forest, the eastern Forest of Odes, in the Virngrund area, and in the southwestern Alpine Foothills.

ARkStorm@Tahoe: Stakeholder perspectives on vulnerabilities and preparedness for an extreme storm event in the greater Lake Tahoe, Reno, and Carson City region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Albano, Christine M.; Cox, Dale A.; Dettinger, Michael; Shaller, Kevin; Welborn, Toby L.; McCarthy, Maureen

2014-01-01

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are strongly linked to extreme winter precipitation events in the Western U.S., accounting for 80 percent of extreme floods in the Sierra Nevada and surrounding lowlands. In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey developed the ARkStorm extreme storm scenario for California to quantify risks from extreme winter storms and to allow stakeholders to better explore and mitigate potential impacts. To explore impacts on natural resources and communities in montane and adjacent environments, we downscaled the scenario to the greater Lake Tahoe, Reno and Carson City region of northern Nevada and California. This ArkStorm@Tahoe scenario was presented at six stakeholder meetings, each with a different geographic and subject matter focus. Discussions were facilitated by the ARkStorm@Tahoe team to identify social and ecological vulnerabilities to extreme winter storms, science and information needs, and proactive measures that might minimize impacts from this type of event. Information collected in these meetings was used to develop a tabletop emergency response exercise and set of recommendations for increasing resilience to extreme winter storm events in both Tahoe and the downstream communities of Northern Nevada.Over 300 individuals participated in ARkStorm@Tahoe stakeholder meetings and the emergency response exercise, including representatives from emergency response, natural resource and ecosystem management, health and human services, public utilities, and businesses. Interruption of transportation, communications, and lack of power and backup fuel supplies were identified as the most likely and primary points of failure across multiple sectors and geographies, as these interruptions have cascading effects on natural and human systems by impeding emergency response efforts. Other key issues that arose in discussions included contamination risks to water supplies and aquatic ecosystems, especially in the Tahoe Basin and Pyramid Lake, interagency coordination, credentialing, flood management, and coordination of health and human services during such an event. Mitigation options were identified for each of the key issues. Several science needs were identified, particularly the need for improved flood inundation maps. Finally, key lessons learned were identified and may help to increase preparedness, response and recovery from extreme storms in the future.

ARkStorm@Tahoe: Science as a foundation for discussing, recognizing and mitigating storm-disaster vulnerabilities in mountain and downstream communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCarthy, M.; Dettinger, M. D.; Kauneckis, D. L.; Cox, D. A.; Albano, C.; Welborn, T.

2014-12-01

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) have historically caused ~80% of the most extreme winter storms and largest floods in California and parts of northwestern Nevada. In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey developed the ARkStorm extreme-storm scenario to quantify risks from extreme winter storms and to allow stakeholders to explore and mitigate potential impacts. The scenario was constructed by concatenating two historical AR sequences and quantified by simulating them using a regional-weather model nested within global weather fields, resulting in a climatologically plausible 23-day storm sequence. The ARkStorm@Tahoe scenario was presented at six meetings with over 300 participants from local agencies, first-responders and local communities, each meeting having a different geographic or sectoral focus. These stakeholder meetings and an 18-question survey identified a wide range of social and ecological vulnerabilities to extreme winter storms, science and information needs to prepare and mitigate consequenses, and proactive measures to minimize impacts. Interruption of transportation, communications, and lack of power and backup fuel supplies were identified as the most likely and primary points of failure across multiple sectors and geographies, as these interruptions have cascading effects on natural and human environments by impeding emergency response efforts. Natural resource impacts of greatest concern include flooding, impacts to water quality, spread and establishment of invasive species, and interactions with other disturbance types (e.g., fire, landslides). Science needs include improved monitoring and models to facilitate better prediction and response, real-time and forecast inundation mapping to understand flood risks, and vulnerability assessments related to geomorphic hazards and water quality impacts. Results from this effort highlight several opportunities for increasing the resilience of communities and the environment to extreme storm events. Information collected in these meetings was used to develop a "tabletop" emergency-response exercise with over 120 participants in March 2014, as well as reports back to the community including specific recommendations for increasing preparedness, response, recovery, and resilience to extreme winter storm events.

Operational Forecasting and Warning systems for Coastal hazards in Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Kwang-Soon; Kwon, Jae-Il; Kim, Jin-Ah; Heo, Ki-Young; Jun, Kicheon

2017-04-01

Coastal hazards caused by both Mother Nature and humans cost tremendous social, economic and environmental damages. To mitigate these damages many countries have been running the operational forecasting or warning systems. Since 2009 Korea Operational Oceanographic System (KOOS) has been developed by the leading of Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology (KIOST) in Korea and KOOS has been operated in 2012. KOOS is consists of several operational modules of numerical models and real-time observations and produces the basic forecasting variables such as winds, tides, waves, currents, temperature and salinity and so on. In practical application systems include storm surges, oil spills, and search and rescue prediction models. In particular, abnormal high waves (swell-like high-height waves) have occurred in the East coast of Korea peninsula during winter season owing to the local meteorological condition over the East Sea, causing property damages and the loss of human lives. In order to improve wave forecast accuracy even very local wave characteristics, numerical wave modeling system using SWAN is established with data assimilation module using 4D-EnKF and sensitivity test has been conducted. During the typhoon period for the prediction of sever waves and the decision making support system for evacuation of the ships, a high-resolution wave forecasting system has been established and calibrated.

Centralized Storm Information System (CSIS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norton, C. C.

1985-01-01

A final progress report is presented on the Centralized Storm Information System (CSIS). The primary purpose of the CSIS is to demonstrate and evaluate real time interactive computerized data collection, interpretation and display techniques as applied to severe weather forecasting. CSIS objectives pertaining to improved severe storm forecasting and warning systems are outlined. The positive impact that CSIS has had on the National Severe Storms Forecast Center (NSSFC) is discussed. The benefits of interactive processing systems on the forecasting ability of the NSSFC are described.

National Weather Service: Watch, Warning, Advisory Display

MedlinePlus

... Education & Outreach About the SPC SPC FAQ About Tornadoes About Derechos Video Lecture Series WCM Page Enh. ... Convective/Tropical Weather Flooding Winter Weather Non-Precipitation Tornado Watch Tornado Warning* Severe Thunderstorm Watch Severe Thunderstorm ...

Electrification in winter storms and the analysis of thunderstorm overflight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brook, Marx

1991-01-01

The emergence of 24 hr operational lightning detection networks has led to the finding that positive lightning strokes, although still much fewer in number than the normal negative strokes, are present in summer and winter storms. Recent papers address the importance of understanding the meteorological conditions which lead to a dominance of one polarity of stroke over another; the appearance of positive strokes at the end of a storm appeared to presage the end-of-storm downdraft and subsidence leading to downburst activity. It is beginning to appear that positive strokes may be important meteorological indicators. Significant research accomplishments on the following topics are addressed: (1) a study to verify that the black boxes used in the lightning networks to detect both negative and positive strokes to ground were accurate; (2) the use of slow tails to determine the polarity of distant lightning; (3) lightning initiation in winter vs. summer storms; (4) the upgrade of sensors for the measurement of electric field signals associated with lightning; (5) the analysis of lightning flash records from storms between 40 and 125 km from the sensor; and (6) an interesting aspect of the initiation process which involves the physical processes driving the stepped leader. The focus of current research and future research plans are presented.

Impact of the winter 2013-2014 series of severe Western Europe storms on a double-barred sandy coast: Beach and dune erosion and megacusp embayments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castelle, Bruno; Marieu, Vincent; Bujan, Stéphane; Splinter, Kristen D.; Robinet, Arhur; Sénéchal, Nadia; Ferreira, Sophie

2015-06-01

The winter of 2013/2014 was characterized by a striking pattern of temporal and spatial extreme storm wave clustering in Western Europe. The 110-km long Gironde coast, SW France, was exposed to the most energetic wave conditions over the last 18 years. The period was outstanding in terms of the available energy to move sediment and cause large-scale erosion with the 2-month average significant wave height (Hs) exceeding 3.6 m, just below the 0.95 quantile, and 4 distinct 10-year return period storms with Hs > 9 m. These storm waves caused unprecedented beach and dune erosion along the Gironde coast, including severely damaged sea defences at the coastal towns. At the end of the winter, dune erosion scarp height was highly variable alongshore and often exceeded 10 m. Megacusp embayments were observed along the Gironde coast with an average alongshore spacing of 1000 m in the south progressively decreasing to 500 m in the north, with an average cross-shore amplitude of 20 m. While beach megacusps were previously observed to systematically couple to the inner bar along the Gironde coast during low- to moderate-energy wave conditions, severe storm-driven megacusp embayments cutting the dune were found to be enforced and coupled to the outer crescentic bar. A detailed inspection of the 1500 m-long bimonthly topographic surveys of Truc Vert beach shows that in early January 2014 the outstanding shore-normal incident storm swell 'Hercules', with Hs and peak wave period Tp peaking at 9.6 m and 22 s, respectively, triggered the formation of a localized megacusp embayment with the erosion scarp height exceeding 6 m in its centre where the dune retreat reached 30 m. The subsequent storms progressively smoothed the megacusp by the end of the winter, mostly through severe erosion of the megacusp horns. Because of the very long period (16 s < Tp < 23 s) storm waves with persistent shore-normal incidence, the well-developed outer crescentic bar observed prior to the winter did not straighten. Instead, the outer-bar three-dimensionality developed further, particularly during 'Hercules'. Our observations indicate that both the antecedent outer sandbar morphology and storm wave characteristics, including period and angle of incidence, govern patterns of beach and dune erosion along open multiple-barred sandy coasts during severe storms.

Impacts of Changed Extratropical Storm Tracks on Arctic Sea Ice Export through Fram Strait

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, J.; Zhang, X.; Wang, Z.

2017-12-01

Studies have indicated a poleward shift of extratropical storm tracks and intensification of Arctic storm activities, in particular on the North Atlantic side of the Arctic Ocean. To improve understanding of dynamic effect on changes in Arctic sea ice mass balance, we examined the impacts of the changed storm tracks and activities on Arctic sea ice export through Fram Strait through ocean-sea ice model simulations. The model employed is the high-resolution Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm), which was forced by the Japanese 25-year Reanalysis (JRA-25) dataset. The results show that storm-induced strong northerly wind stress can cause simultaneous response of daily sea ice export and, in turn, exert cumulative effects on interannual variability and long-term changes of sea ice export. Further analysis indicates that storm impact on sea ice export is spatially dependent. The storms occurring southeast of Fram Strait exhibit the largest impacts. The weakened intensity of winter storms in this region after 1994/95 could be responsible for the decrease of total winter sea ice export during the same time period.

Coastal emergency managers' preferences for storm surge forecast communication.

PubMed

Morrow, Betty Hearn; Lazo, Jeffrey K

2014-01-01

Storm surge, the most deadly hazard associated with tropical and extratropical cyclones, is the basis for most evacuation decisions by authorities. One factor believed to be associated with evacuation noncompliance is a lack of understanding of storm surge. To address this problem, federal agencies responsible for cyclone forecasts are seeking more effective ways of communicating storm surge threat. To inform this process, they are engaging various partners in the forecast and warning process.This project focuses on emergency managers. Fifty-three emergency managers (EMs) from the Gulf and lower Atlantic coasts were surveyed to elicit their experience with, sources of, and preferences for storm surge information. The emergency managers-who are well seasoned in hurricane response and generally rate the surge risk in their coastal areas above average or extremely high-listed storm surge as their major concern with respect to hurricanes. They reported a general lack of public awareness about surge. Overall they support new ways to convey the potential danger to the public, including the issuance of separate storm surge watches and warnings, and the expression of surge heights using feet above ground level. These EMs would like more maps, graphics, and visual materials for use in communicating with the public. An important concern is the timing of surge forecasts-whether they receive them early enough to be useful in their evacuation decisions.

Impacts of Synoptic Weather Patterns on Snow Albedo at Sites in New England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adolph, A. C.; Albert, M. R.; Lazarcik, J.; Dibb, J. E.; Amante, J.; Price, A. N.

2015-12-01

Winter snow in the northeastern United States has changed over the last several decades, resulting in shallower snow packs, fewer days of snow cover and increasing precipitation falling as rain in the winter. In addition to these changes which cause reductions in surface albedo, increasing winter temperatures also lead to more rapid snow grain growth, resulting in decreased snow reflectivity. We present in-situ measurements and analyses to test the sensitivity of seasonal snow albedo to varying weather conditions at sites in New England. In particular, we investigate the impact of temperature on snow albedo through melt and grain growth, the impact of precipitation event frequency on albedo through snow "freshening," and the impact of storm path on snow structure and snow albedo. Over three winter seasons between 2013 and 2015, in-situ snow characterization measurements were made at three non-forested sites across New Hampshire. These near-daily measurements include spectrally resolved albedo, snow optical grain size determined through contact spectroscopy, snow depth, snow density and local meteorological parameters. Combining this information with storm tracks derived from HYSPLIT modeling, we quantify the current sensitivity of northeastern US snow albedo to temperature as well as precipitation type, frequency and path. Our analysis shows that southerly winter storms result in snow with a significantly lower albedo than storms which come from across the continental US or the Atlantic Ocean. Interannual variability in temperature and statewide spatial variability in snowfall rates at our sites show the relative importance of snowfall amount and temperatures in albedo evolution over the course of the winter.

Linked Extreme Weather Events during Winter 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 in the Context of Northern Hemisphere Circulation Anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bosart, L. F.; Archambault, H. M.; Cordeira, J. M.

2011-12-01

Lance F. Bosart, Heather M. Archambault, and Jason M. Cordeira Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York The Northern Hemisphere (NH) planetary-scale circulation during winter 2009-2010 was characterized by an unusual combination of persistent high-latitude blocking and southward-displaced storm tracks, manifest by a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation (AO), in conjunction with a moderate El Nino event. The high-latitude blocking activity and southward-displaced storm tracks supported episodic cold-air outbreaks and enhanced storminess over parts of midlatitude eastern Asia, eastern North America, and western Europe as well as anomalous warmth over northeastern Canada and Greenland that delayed sea ice formation and ice thickening in these areas during winter 2009-2010. Although somewhat less extreme than winter 2009-2010, the first half of winter 2010-2011 was also characterized by high-latitude blocking and southward-displaced storm tracks (manifest by negative values of the AO) while the Pacific-North American (PNA), initially negative, became neutral in late December and most of January. Winter 2010-2011 was characterized by moderate La Nina conditions in contrast to moderate El Nino conditions that prevailed during winter 2009-2010. Despite the reversal of the ENSO phase from winter 2009-2010 to winter 2010-2011, high-latitude blocking activity and the associated southward-displaced storm tracks again allowed for episodic cold-air outbreaks and enhanced storminess over parts of midlatitude eastern Asia, central and eastern North America, and western Europe with delayed sea ice formation and thickening over the Davis Strait and adjacent regions during the first half of winter 2010-2011. Beginning in late January and continuing through early February 2011 the phase of the AO and the PNA reversed with the AO and PNA becoming positive and negative, respectively. This linked AO/PNA phase transition was associated with an extreme weather event that brought severe and record-setting cold to parts of the U.S. and Mexico, a powerful snow and ice storm in the Central U.S., and a subsequent and spectacular warm-up east of the Rockies. The purpose of this presentation will be to present an overview of the structure and evolution of the large-scale NH circulation anomalies during the 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 winters. Emphasis will be placed on showing how individual synoptic-scale weather events (e.g., recurving and transitioning western Pacific tropical cyclones, diabatically driven upper-level outflow from organized deep convection associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and western North Atlantic storminess) contributed to the formation of significant and persistent large-scale circulation anomalies and how these large-scale circulation anomalies in turn impacted the storm tracks, regional temperature and precipitation anomalies, and the associated extreme weather.

33 CFR 150.445 - When is oil in a single point mooring-oil transfer system (SPM-OTS) displaced with water?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... the pipeline end manifold must be closed whenever: (1) A storm warning forecasts weather conditions... vessel is about to depart the SPM because of storm conditions; or (3) The SPM is not scheduled for use in...

33 CFR 150.445 - When is oil in a single point mooring-oil transfer system (SPM-OTS) displaced with water?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... the pipeline end manifold must be closed whenever: (1) A storm warning forecasts weather conditions... vessel is about to depart the SPM because of storm conditions; or (3) The SPM is not scheduled for use in...

33 CFR 150.445 - When is oil in a single point mooring-oil transfer system (SPM-OTS) displaced with water?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... the pipeline end manifold must be closed whenever: (1) A storm warning forecasts weather conditions... vessel is about to depart the SPM because of storm conditions; or (3) The SPM is not scheduled for use in...

33 CFR 150.445 - When is oil in a single point mooring-oil transfer system (SPM-OTS) displaced with water?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... the pipeline end manifold must be closed whenever: (1) A storm warning forecasts weather conditions... vessel is about to depart the SPM because of storm conditions; or (3) The SPM is not scheduled for use in...

33 CFR 150.445 - When is oil in a single point mooring-oil transfer system (SPM-OTS) displaced with water?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... the pipeline end manifold must be closed whenever: (1) A storm warning forecasts weather conditions... vessel is about to depart the SPM because of storm conditions; or (3) The SPM is not scheduled for use in...

A Personal Storm Warning Service

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1994-01-01

Although lightning detection systems operated by government agencies, utilities and other businesses provide storm warnings, this information often does not reach the public until some time after the observations have been made. A low-cost personal lightning detector offers a significant safety advantage to private flyers, boaters, golfers and others. Developed by Airborne Research Associates, the detectors originated in Space Shuttle tests of an optical lightning detection technique. The commercial device is pointed toward a cloud to detect invisible intracloud lightning by sensing subtle changes in light presence. The majority of the sales have been to golf courses. Additional products and more advanced applications are in progress.

Applying stochastic small-scale damage functions to German winter storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prahl, B. F.; Rybski, D.; Kropp, J. P.; Burghoff, O.; Held, H.

2012-03-01

Analyzing insurance-loss data we derive stochastic storm-damage functions for residential buildings. On district level we fit power-law relations between daily loss and maximum wind speed, typically spanning more than 4 orders of magnitude. The estimated exponents for 439 German districts roughly range from 8 to 12. In addition, we find correlations among the parameters and socio-demographic data, which we employ in a simplified parametrization of the damage function with just 3 independent parameters for each district. A Monte Carlo method is used to generate loss estimates and confidence bounds of daily and annual storm damages in Germany. Our approach reproduces the annual progression of winter storm losses and enables to estimate daily losses over a wide range of magnitudes.

Geography of blizzards in the conterminous United States, 1959--2000

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwartz, Robert Michael

2001-07-01

Many individuals think of tornadoes and hurricanes when considering weather-related storms. However, winter storms and blizzards have potential impacts on millions of people and effects on the social landscape such as fatalities, injuries, and economic consequences. Additionally, these storms can last from a few hours to over a week. This study established a climatology of blizzards in the conterminous United States from 1959-2000 utilizing data from Storm Data to identify the spatial and temporal patterns of blizzards. The annual probability of a blizzard on a county level was calculated to give the empirical probability of having a blizzard in any given winter season. Additionally, the number of blizzards were compared to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection by running a linear regression to check for correlation. Finally, the social impacts of blizzards studied included the population affected, fatalities, injuries, property damage, crop damage, and federal disaster declarations. Maps were produced utilizing MapInfo and ArcView Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to summarize regional differences and temporal trends. There were 438 blizzards analyzed in the study with an annual mean of 10.7 blizzards per winter season with the majority of storms occurring in the northern Plains states of North Dakota, South Dakota, and western Minnesota. Time series analysis indicated an increase in the number of blizzards over the 41-year period while there was no linear trend of the area affected by blizzards. Annual probabilities of a blizzard were as high as 76% for Cavalier, Rolette, Steele, Towner, and Traill Counties in North Dakota. The ENSO teleconnection and the number of blizzards on the national scale suggested a negative correlation with fewer blizzards during El Nino episodes. Social impacts indicated blizzards affected 26.3 million per season with 16 fatalities and 49 injuries per season reported to Storm Data . The total population affected each winter did not show a linear trend. An average winter reported 551 million in property damage and 26 million in crop damage according to Storm Data. The number of declared disasters or emergencies due to blizzards has been increasing, especially in the 1990s.

Two Storm-Related Carbon Monoxide Poisoning Outbreaks—Connecticut, October 2011 and October 2012

PubMed Central

STYLES, TIMOTHY; PRZYSIECKI, PATRICIA; ARCHAMBAULT, GARY; SOSA, LYNN; TOAL, BRIAN; MAGRI, JULIE; CARTTER, MATTHEW

2015-01-01

Storm-related carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning outbreaks occurred in Connecticut in 2011 and 2012, despite efforts to improve public messaging. We describe the cases and incidents and identify possible preventive interventions. We defined cases as blood carboxyhemoglobin ≥9.0% among persons exposed to alternative power or heat sources because of storm-related losses. We identified 133 cases, including 3 deaths, in 2011 and 30 in 2012, associated with 72 and 11 incidents, respectively. Racial/ethnic minorities were overrepresented (60% of 2011 patients; 48% in 2012), compared with Connecticut’s minority population (29%). Generator or charcoal misuse (83% in 2011; 100% in 2012) caused the majority of incidents. Few CO-source operators recalled media or product CO warnings. Incorrect generator and charcoal use, racial/ethnic disparities, and incomplete penetration of warning messages characterized both outbreaks. A multifaceted approach is needed to decrease postdisaster CO poisonings. PMID:24971904

Storm Warnings on Lake Balaton,

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-04-06

times is called the storm duration. An independent wind period, or an independent storm, is that wind caused by a given synoptic system . However, within...mined for a long time ) there is no real physical basis from which to explain the existance of any characteristic differences. From r4 . the results... time , an essentially dynamic change takes place within the system , or we encounter a dull and slow barocline effect. Now in all these cases, an

National Weather Service Warning Performance Based on the WSR-88D.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polger, Paul D.; Goldsmith, Barry S.; Przywarty, Richard C.; Bocchieri, Joseph R.

1994-02-01

The National Weather Service (NWS) began operational use of the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) system in March 1991 at Norman, Oklahoma. WSR-88D data have been available to forecasters at five additional offices: Melbourne, Florida, and sterling, Virginia (since January 1992); St. Louis, Missouri, and Dodge City, Kansas (since March 1992); and Houston, Texas (since April 1992). The performance of the severe local storm and flash flood warning programs at the six offices before and after the availability of the WSR-88D was measured quantitatively. The verification procedures and statistical measures used in the quantitative evaluation were those used operationally by the NWS.The statistics show that the warnings improved dramatically when the WSR-88D was in operation. Specifically, the probability of detection of severe weather events increased and the number of false alarms decreased. There was also a marked improvement in the lead time for all severe local storm and flash flood events. These improvements were evident throughout the effective range of the radar. Stratification of severe local storm data by severe thunderstorms versus tornadoes revealed an improvement in the NWS's ability to differentiate between tornadic and nontornadic storms when the WSR-88D was in operation. Four individual cases are examined to illustrate how forecasters used the WSR-88D to achieve the improved results. These cases focus on the unique features of the WSR-88D that provide an advantage over conventional NWS radars.

Statistical Examination of Tornado Report and Warning Near-Storm Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson-Frey, Alexandra K.

This study makes use of a 13-year dataset of 14,814 tornado events and 44,961 tornado warnings in the continental United States, along with near-storm environmental data associated with each of those tornado events and warnings, to build a methodology that can be used to create nuanced climatologies of near-storm environmental data. Two key parameter spaces are identified as being particularly useful in this endeavor: mixed-layer convective available potential energy (MLCAPE) versus 0-6-km vector shear magnitude (SHR6) and mixed-layer lifting condensation level (MLLCL) versus 0-1-km storm-relative helicity (SRH1). In addition, the Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) is identified as a useful composite parameter that can highlight near-storm environments that are particularly favorable for the development of significant tornadoes. Two particular statistical methods for the analysis and characterization of near-storm environments are described and applied: Kernel Density Estimation (KDE), which is applied to bulk (proximity soundinglike) parameter values associated with each event or warning, and Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs), which are applied to fully two-dimensional plots of STP in an area surrounding each event or warning. The KDE approach characterizes and identifies differences in the environments of tornadoes forming in quasi-linear convective systems versus those forming in right-moving supercells; specific environmental traits are also identified for different geographical regions, seasons, and times of day. Tornado warning performance is found to be best in environments with particularly large values of MLCAPE and SHR6. The early evening transition (EET) period is of particular interest: MLCAPE and MLLCL heights are in the process of falling, and SHR6 and SRH1 are in the process of increasing. Accordingly, tornadoes rated 2 or greater on the enhanced Fujita scale (EF2+) are also most common during the EET, probability of detection (POD) is relatively high, and false-alarm ratio (FAR) is relatively low. Overall, when comparing the distribution of environments for events versus those for warnings, there is no "smoking gun" indicating a systematic problem with forecasting that explains the high overall false-alarm ratio, which instead seems to stem from the inability to know which storms in a given environment will be tornadic. The SOM approach establishes nine statistically distinct clusters of spatial distributions of STP values in the 480 km x 480 km region surrounding each tornado event or warning. For tornado events, distinct patterns are associated more with particular times of day, geographical locations, and times of year, and the use of two-dimensional data rather than point proximity sounding information means that these patterns can be identified and characterized with still more detail; for instance, the archetypal springtime dryline environment in the Great Plains emerges readily from the data. Although high values of STP tend to be associated with relatively high POD and relatively low FAR, the majority of tornado events occur within a pattern of low STP, with relatively high FAR and low POD. The two-dimensional plots produced by the SOM approach provide an intuitive way to create distinct climatologies of tornadic near-storm environments. Having established a methodology through the use of KDE and SOM, this research then examines the topic of tornado outbreaks [defined as ten or more (E)F1+ tornadoes that occur with no more than 6 h or 2,000 km between subsequent tornadoes]. Outbreak tornadoes in a given geographical region have greater SRH1 and SHR6 than isolated tornadoes in the same region, and also have considerably higher POD than isolated tornadoes. When SOMs are created for all (E)F1+ tornadoes, the percentage of outbreak tornadoes in a given node is found to depend more strongly on the magnitude of the STP value surrounding the tornado than its orientation. For the SOM of outbreak tornadoes, outbreaks occurring in environments with higher magnitudes of STP will generally also have the highest casualty rates, regardless of the specific two-dimensional pattern of STP. Two specific tornado outbreaks are then examined through this methodology, which allows the events to be placed into their climatological context with more nuance than typical proximity sounding-based approaches would allow.

Direct observations of atmosphere - sea ice - ocean interactions during Arctic winter and spring storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, R. M.; Itkin, P.; Granskog, M. A.; Assmy, P.; Cohen, L.; Duarte, P.; Doble, M. J.; Fransson, A.; Fer, I.; Fernandez Mendez, M.; Frey, M. M.; Gerland, S.; Haapala, J. J.; Hudson, S. R.; Liston, G. E.; Merkouriadi, I.; Meyer, A.; Muilwijk, M.; Peterson, A.; Provost, C.; Randelhoff, A.; Rösel, A.; Spreen, G.; Steen, H.; Smedsrud, L. H.; Sundfjord, A.

2017-12-01

To study the thinner and younger sea ice that now dominates the Arctic the Norwegian Young Sea ICE expedition (N-ICE2015) was launched in the ice-covered region north of Svalbard, from January to June 2015. During this time, eight local and remote storms affected the region and rare direct observations of the atmosphere, snow, ice and ocean were conducted. Six of these winter storms passed directly over the expedition and resulted in air temperatures rising from below -30oC to near 0oC, followed by abrupt cooling. Substantial snowfall prior to the campaign had already formed a snow pack of approximately 50 cm, to which the February storms contributed an additional 6 cm. The deep snow layer effectively isolated the ice cover and prevented bottom ice growth resulting in low brine fluxes. Peak wind speeds during winter storms exceeded 20 m/s, causing strong snow re-distribution, release of sea salt aerosol and sea ice deformation. The heavy snow load caused widespread negative freeboard; during sea ice deformation events, level ice floes were flooded by sea water, and at least 6-10 cm snow-ice layer was formed. Elevated deformation rates during the most powerful winter storms damaged the ice cover permanently such that the response to wind forcing increased by 60 %. As a result of a remote storm in April deformation processes opened about 4 % of the total area into leads with open water, while a similar amount of ice was deformed into pressure ridges. The strong winds also enhanced ocean mixing and increased ocean heat fluxes three-fold in the pycnocline from 4 to 12 W/m2. Ocean heat fluxes were extremely large (over 300 W/m2) during storms in regions where the warm Atlantic inflow is located close to surface over shallow topography. This resulted in very large (5-25 cm/day) bottom ice melt and in cases flooding due to heavy snow load. Storm events increased the carbon dioxide exchange between the atmosphere and ocean but also affected the pCO2 in surface waters through mixing. Finally, the combination of a higher lead fraction and thinner ice cover, driven in part by storms, helped facilitate an early under-ice phytoplankton bloom in May, far inside the ice pack. In summary the storms entail significant effects on the ice pack that may last much longer than the short-lived storm events.

The Surge, Wave, and Tide Hydrodynamics (SWaTH) network of the U.S. Geological Survey—Past and future implementation of storm-response monitoring, data collection, and data delivery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Verdi, Richard J.; Lotspeich, R. Russell; Robbins, Jeanne C.; Busciolano, Ronald J.; Mullaney, John R.; Massey, Andrew J.; Banks, William S.; Roland, Mark A.; Jenter, Harry L.; Peppler, Marie C.; Suro, Thomas P.; Schubert, Christopher E.; Nardi, Mark R.

2017-06-20

After Hurricane Sandy made landfall along the northeastern Atlantic coast of the United States on October 29, 2012, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) carried out scientific investigations to assist with protecting coastal communities and resources from future flooding. The work included development and implementation of the Surge, Wave, and Tide Hydrodynamics (SWaTH) network consisting of more than 900 monitoring stations. The SWaTH network was designed to greatly improve the collection and timely dissemination of information related to storm surge and coastal flooding. The network provides a significant enhancement to USGS data-collection capabilities in the region impacted by Hurricane Sandy and represents a new strategy for observing and monitoring coastal storms, which should result in improved understanding, prediction, and warning of storm-surge impacts and lead to more resilient coastal communities.As innovative as it is, SWaTH evolved from previous USGS efforts to collect storm-surge data needed by others to improve storm-surge modeling, warning, and mitigation. This report discusses the development and implementation of the SWaTH network, and some of the regional stories associated with the landfall of Hurricane Sandy, as well as some previous events that informed the SWaTH development effort. Additional discussions on the mechanics of inundation and how the USGS is working with partners to help protect coastal communities from future storm impacts are also included.

Tornadogenesis via squall line and supercell interaction revisited - The 15 November 1989 Huntsville tornado

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodman, Steven J.; Knupp, Kevin R.

1990-01-01

A case study analyzing the environmental setting and storm system morphology that provides observational evidence of a mechanism involving the interaction of a gust front with a preexisting mesocyclone is presented. This case serves to reemphasize the existence of a high conditional probability of tornado occurrence, given the merger of a gust front (or storm outflow) with a moderate to strong thunderstorm ahead of it. The resultant data serve to illustrate some important unresolved issues relevant to the severe weather warning system that involve the present and planned local warning and network radars, and future algorithms that might intelligently integrate other data sources and models with the radar data.

An Update to the Warm-Season Convective Wind Climatology of KSC/CCAFS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lupo, Kevin

2012-01-01

Total of 1100 convective events in the 17-year warm-season climatology at KSC/CCAFS. July and August typically are the peak of convective events, May being the minimum. Warning and non-warning level convective winds are more likely to occur in the late afternoon (1900-2000Z). Southwesterly flow regimes and wind directions produce the strongest winds. Storms moving from southwesterly direction tend to produce more warning level winds than those moving from the northerly and easterly directions.

Temporal and spatial variations in suspended matter in continental shelf and slope waters off the north-eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bothner, Michael H.; Parmenter, Carol M.; Milliman, John D.

1981-01-01

Seston in waters of Georges Bank originates primarily from biological production and from resuspension of bottom sediments. The concentrations of suspended matter observed on the central shoals are more influenced by storms than by seasonal changes. Winter storms produce highest concentrations of non-combustible material throughout the water column, and summer storms appear to increase biological production by mixing additional nutrients into the photic zone. On the south-east flank of the bank, in water depths between 80 and 200 in, the concentrations of total suspended matter and non-combustible material show little variation compared with the central shoals, and storm effects are far less noticeable.Highest concentrations (>15 mg 1−1) of suspended matter occur in bottom waters south of Nantucket Island after winter storms and appear to be primarily resuspended bottom sediment. Resuspended sediment is also common in near-bottom waters of the south-western Gulf of Maine, and occasionally near the intersection of the shelf/slope water mass front and the bottom.Seasonal variations were observed in the distribution and species composition of phytoplankton. Coccoliths are predominant on the central bank during the winter, but during the spring and summer they are concentrated on the eastern flank at deeper depths.

Extreme storm activity in North Atlantic and European region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vyazilova, N.

2010-09-01

The extreme storm activity study over North Atlantic and Europe includes the analyses of extreme cyclone (track number, integral cyclonic intensity) and extreme storm (track number) during winter and summer seasons in the regions: 1) 55°N-80N, 50°W-70°E; 2) 30°N-55°N, 50°W-70°E. Extreme cyclones were selected based on cyclone centre pressure (P<=970 mbar). Extreme storms were selected from extreme cyclones based on wind velocity on 925 mbar. The Bofort scala was used for this goal. Integral cyclonic intensity (for region) includes the calculation cyclone centers number and sum of MSLP anomalies in cyclone centers. The analyses based on automated cyclone tracking algorithm, 6-hourly MSLP and wind data (u and v on 925 gPa) from the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses from January 1948 to March 2010. The comparision of mean, calculated for every ten years, had shown, that in polar region extreme cyclone and storm track number, and integral cyclonic intensity gradually increases and have maximum during last years (as for summer, as for winter season). Every ten years means for summer season are more then for winter season, as for polar, as for tropical region. Means (ten years) for tropical region are significance less then for polar region.

Backing warning sensors for tow plows.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-06-01

Backup warning system devices were evaluated to determine if they would alert winter maintenance snow : plow drivers to obstacles directly behind the trailer and out of view of the driver when a unit is backed up. : When the sensors on the back of th...

NOAA Weather Radio - Alarms

Science.gov Websites

affected (usually by county), and the expiration time of the message. The Maximum message expiration time county), and the valid time period of the hazard. Other details, such as storm movement, storm spotter time in SAME vs. valid time period in voice message: For short-fuse hazards, such as a tornado warning

Geomagnetic storms: Potential economic impacts on electric utilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnes, P. R.; Vandyke, J. W.

1991-03-01

Geomagnetic storms associated with sunspot and solar flare activity can disturb communications and disrupt electric power. A very severe geomagnetic storm could cause a major blackout with an economic impact of several billion dollars. The vulnerability of electric power systems in the northeast United States will likely increase during the 1990s because of the trend of transmitting large amounts of power over long distance to meet the electricity demands of this region. A comprehensive research program and a warning satellite to monitor the solar wind are needed to enhance the reliability of electric power systems under the influence of geomagnetic storms.

Are the current thresholds, indicators, and time window for cold warning effective enough to protect cardiovascular health?

PubMed

Lin, Shao; Lawrence, Wayne R; Lin, Ziqiang; DiRienzo, Stephen; Lipton, Kevin; Dong, Guang-Hui; Leung, Ricky; Lauper, Ursula; Nasca, Philip; Stuart, Neil

2018-10-15

More extreme cold weather and larger weather variations have raised concerns regarding their effects on public health. Although prior studies assessed the effects of cold air temperature on health, especially mortality, limited studies evaluated wind chill temperatures on morbidity, and health effects under the current cold warning threshold. This study identified the thresholds, lag periods, and best indicators of extreme cold on cardiovascular disease (CVD) by comparing effects of wind chill temperatures and cold air temperatures on CVD emergency department (ED) visits in winter and winter transition months. Information was collected on 662,625 CVD ED visits from statewide hospital discharge dataset in New York State. Meteorological factors, including air temperature, wind speed, and barometric pressure were collected from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. A case-crossover approach was used to assess the extreme cold-CVD relationship in winter (December-February) and transition months (November and March) after controlling for PM 2.5 . Conditional logistic regression models were employed to analyze the association between cold weather factors and CVD ED visits. We observed CVD effects occurred when wind chill temperatures were as high as -3.8 °C (25 °F), warmer than current wind chill warning standard (≤-28.8 °C or ≤-20 °F). Wind chill temperature was a more sensitive indicator of CVD ED visits during winter with temperatures ≤ -3.8 °C (25 °F) with delay effect (lag 6); however, air temperature was better during transition months for temperatures ≤ 7.2 °C (45 °F) at earlier lag days (1-3). Among all CVD subtypes, hypertension ED visit had the strongest negative association with both wind chill temperature and air temperature. This study recommends modifying the current cold warning temperature threshold given larger proportions of CVD cases are occurring at considerably higher temperatures than the current criteria. We also recommend issuing cold warnings in winter transitional months. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Coupling from Regional to Global Earth System Models for High-Impact Extreme Weather Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, S. S.; Curcic, M.

2017-12-01

The need for acurrate and integrated impact forecasts of extreme wind, rain, waves, and storm surge is growing as coastal population and built environment expand worldwide. A key limiting factor in forecasting impacts of extreme weather events associated with tropical cycle and winter storms is fully coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model interface with explicit momentum and energy exchange. It is not only critical for accurate prediction of storm intensity, but also provides coherent wind, rian, ocean waves and currents forecasts for forcing for storm surge. The Unified Wave INterface (UWIN) has been developed for coupling of the atmosphere-wave-ocean models. UWIN couples the atmosphere, wave, and ocean models using the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). It is a physically based and computationally efficient coupling sytem that is flexible to use in a multi-model system and portable for transition to the next generation global Earth system prediction mdoels. This standardized coupling framework allows researchers to develop and test air-sea coupling parameterizations and coupled data assimilation, and to better facilitate research-to-operation activities. It has been used and extensively tested and verified in regional coupled model forecasts of tropical cycles and winter storms (Chen and Curcic 2016, Curcic et al. 2016, and Judt et al. 2016). We will present 1) an overview of UWIN and its applications in fully coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model predictions of hurricanes and coastal winter storms, and 2) implenmentation of UWIN in the NASA GMAO GEOS-5.

Comprehensive Condition Survey and Storm Waves, Circulation, and Sediment Study, Dana Point Harbor, California

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-12-01

waters; 3) west to northwest local sea; 4) prefrontal local sea; 5) tropical storm swell; and 6) extratropical cyclone in the southern hemisphere...14-13 58 Prefrontal local sea The coastal zone within the south Orange County area is vulnerable under extratropical winter storm conditions (a...wave characteristics for severe extratropical storms during the 39 yr time period (1970–2008) are comparable to peak storm wave heights that were

Operational wave now- and forecast in the German Bight as a basis for the assessment of wave-induced hydrodynamic loads on coastal dikes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dreier, Norman; Fröhle, Peter

2017-12-01

The knowledge of the wave-induced hydrodynamic loads on coastal dikes including their temporal and spatial resolution on the dike in combination with actual water levels is of crucial importance of any risk-based early warning system. As a basis for the assessment of the wave-induced hydrodynamic loads, an operational wave now- and forecast system is set up that consists of i) available field measurements from the federal and local authorities and ii) data from numerical simulation of waves in the German Bight using the SWAN wave model. In this study, results of the hindcast of deep water wave conditions during the winter storm on 5-6 December, 2013 (German name `Xaver') are shown and compared with available measurements. Moreover field measurements of wave run-up from the local authorities at a sea dike on the German North Sea Island of Pellworm are presented and compared against calculated wave run-up using the EurOtop (2016) approach.

Effect of the El Nino/southern oscillation on Gulf of Mexico, winter, frontal-wave cyclones: 1960-1989. (Volumes I and II)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Manty, R.E.

Seasonal counts of frontal-wave cyclones forming over the Gulf of Mexico and its coastal plain show more storms in the five El Nino winters and fewer storms in the eight La Nina winters, from 1960 to 1989, significant at the .01 level by a rank sum test. This is corroborated by two results. First, during the same period, the frequency of frontal-overrunning weather conditions in the region, indicative of storms, was higher in El Nino winters and lower in La Nina winters. Second, 100 years of precipitation and temperature records show wetter, cooler El Nino winters and drier, warmer Lamore » Nina winters at gulf-region land stations and climatic divisions. A threefold explanation, based on National Meteorological Center, upper-air data, is offered for the greater frequency of gulf-region cyclogenesis during El Nino winters between 1960 and 1989. (1) The winter, mean, 250-mb jet over the southern US is intensified by 5 to 10 ms[sup [minus]1] and displaced southward between 110[degrees] and 75[degrees]W by an average of 200 to 285 km during the five El Nino winters. This implies stronger and more frequent episodes of jet-associated, upper-level troughing and divergence over the region, reinforcing surface, frontal-wave cyclones. (2) In the five El Nino winters between 1963 and 1989, seasonal average heights and temperatures of the 850-, 700-, 500-, and 200-mb surfaces are lower over the region than they are in non-El Nino winters. This implies more-common presence of cold, low-pressure troughs at upper levels, reinforcing surface cyclones. (3) A 10[degrees] eastward shift, at sea level, of the western edge of the Bermuda high during the eight El Nino winters, changes normally due-easterly trades in the northwestern Caribbean Sea to slightly south of east, allowing greater advection of moisture and heat into the gulf from the tropics, preconditioning the area for development of surface cyclones. Only winter season shows all three conditions and an increase in cyclogenesis.« less

Trends in Northern Hemisphere surface cyclone frequency and intensity

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Clark, M.P.; Serreze, Mark C.

2001-01-01

One of the hypothesized effects of global warming from increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases is a change in the frequency and/or intensity of extratropical cyclones. In this study, winter frequencies and intensities of extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere for the period 1959-97 are examined to determine if identifiable trends are occurring. Results indicate a statistically significant decrease in midlatitude cyclone frequency and a significant increase in high-latitude cyclone frequency. In addition, storm intensity has increased in both the high and midlatitudes. The changes in storm frequency correlate with changes in winter Northern Hemisphere temperature and support hypotheses that global warming may result in a northward shift of storm tracks in the Northern Hemisphere.

The Impact of Cloud Properties on Young Sea Ice during Three Winter Storms at N-ICE2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, S. Y.; Walden, V. P.; Cohen, L.; Hudson, S. R.

2017-12-01

The impact of clouds on sea ice varies significantly as cloud properties change. Instruments deployed during the Norwegian Young Sea Ice field campaign (N-ICE2015) are used to study how differing cloud properties influence the cloud radiative forcing at the sea ice surface. N-ICE2015 was the first campaign in the Arctic winter since SHEBA (1997/1998) to study the surface energy budget of sea ice and the associated effects of cloud properties. Cloud characteristics, surface radiative and turbulent fluxes, and meteorological properties were measured throughout the field campaign. Here we explore how cloud macrophysical and microphysical properties affect young, thin sea ice during three winter storms from 31 January to 15 February 2015. This time period is of interest due to the varying surface and atmospheric conditions, which showcase the variety of conditions the newly-formed sea ice can experience during the winter. This period was characterized by large variations in the ice surface and near-surface air temperatures, with highs near 0°C when warm, moist air was advected into the area and lows reaching -40°C during clear, calm periods between storms. The advection of warm, moist air into the area influenced the cloud properties and enhanced the downwelling longwave flux. For most of the period, downwelling longwave flux correlates closely with the air temperature. However, at the end of the first storm, a drop in downwelling longwave flux of about 50 Wm-2 was observed, independent of any change in surface or air temperature or cloud fraction, indicating a change in cloud properties. Lidar data show an increase in cloud height during this period and a potential shift in cloud phase from ice to mixed-phase. This study will describe the cloud properties during the three winter storms and discuss their impacts on surface energy budget.

Satellites see major winter storm marching toward the U.S. East Coast

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

NASA and NOAA satellites are providing various views of the major winter storm marching toward the U.S. East coast on March 13. The storm is forecast to merge with another system and is expected to bring large snowfall totals from the Mid-Atlantic to New England. NASA's Aqua satellite gathered infrared data from the storm system and the area ahead of the storm for cloud and ground temperatures. NOAA's GOES-East satellite provided visible and infrared imagery that showed the extent and the movement of the system. Forecasters at the National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center (WPC) noted that the low pressure system crossing the Midwest states and Ohio Valley is expected to merge with another low off the southeast U.S. coast. WPC stated "This will allow for a strong nor'easter to develop near the coast and cause a late-season snowstorm from the central Appalachians to New England, including many of the big cities in the Northeast U.S." Credits: NASA/NOAA GOES Project

GenCade Version 1 Model Theory and User’s Guide

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-12-01

summer, severe waves associated with extratropical storms frequent during winter and spring, and severe waves associated with tropical storms during...that the majority of waves are from the southeast and the more severe waves associated with extratropical storms are from the east- southeast. This...decades to centuries. However, these tools should also resolve processes that occur at the scale of individual storms and tidal cycles to calculate

Facilitating Adaptation to Changing Storm Surge Patterns in Western Alaska.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, K. A.; Holman, A.; Reynolds, J.

2014-12-01

Coastal regions of North America are already experiencing the effects of climate change and the consequences of new storm patterns and sea level rise. These climate change effects are even more pronounced in western Alaska where the loss of sea ice in early winter and spring are exposing the coast to powerful winter storms that are visibly altering the landscape, putting coastal communities at risk, and are likely impacting important coastal wildlife habitat in ways we don't yet understand. The Western Alaska Landscape Conservation Cooperative has funded a suite of projects to improve the information available to assist managers and communities to adapt changes in coastal storms and their impacts. Projects range from modeling tide, wave and storm surge patters, to ShoreZone and NHD mapping, to bathymetry mapping, community vulnerability assessments and risks to important wildlife habitat. This group of diverse projects has helped stimulate momentum among partners which will lead to better tools for communities to respond to dangerous storms. For example, the State of Alaska and NOAA are working together to compile a series of community-scale maps that utilize best-available datasets to streamline communication about forecasted storm surges, local elevations and potentially impacted infrastructure during storm events that may lead to coastal flooding.

Design and quantification of an extreme winter storm scenario for emergency preparedness and planning exercises in California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, M.D.; Martin, Ralph F.; Hughes, M.; Das, T.; Neiman, P.; Cox, D.; Estes, G.; Reynolds, D.; Hartman, R.; Cayan, D.; Jones, L.

2012-01-01

The USGS Multihazards Project is working with numerous agencies to evaluate and plan for hazards and damages that could be caused by extreme winter storms impacting California. Atmospheric and hydrological aspects of a hypothetical storm scenario have been quantified as a basis for estimation of human, infrastructure, economic, and environmental impacts for emergency-preparedness and flood-planning exercises. In order to ensure scientific defensibility and necessary levels of detail in the scenario description, selected historical storm episodes were concatentated to describe a rapid arrival of several major storms over the state, yielding precipitation totals and runoff rates beyond those occurring during the individual historical storms. This concatenation allowed the scenario designers to avoid arbitrary scalings and is based on historical occasions from the 19th and 20th Centuries when storms have stalled over the state and when extreme storms have arrived in rapid succession. Dynamically consistent, hourly precipitation, temperatures, barometric pressures (for consideration of storm surges and coastal erosion), and winds over California were developed for the so-called ARkStorm scenario by downscaling the concatenated global records of the historical storm sequences onto 6- and 2-km grids using a regional weather model of January 1969 and February 1986 storm conditions. The weather model outputs were then used to force a hydrologic model to simulate ARkStorm runoff, to better understand resulting flooding risks. Methods used to build this scenario can be applied to other emergency, nonemergency and non-California applications. ?? 2011 The Author(s).

Winter Survival: A Consumer's Guide to Winter Preparedness.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Department of Energy, Washington, DC.

This booklet discusses a variety of topics to help consumers prepare for winter. Tips for the home include: winterizing the home, dealing with a loss of heat or power failure, and what you need to have on hand. Another section gives driving tips and what to do in a storm. Health factors include suggestions for keeping warm, signs and treatment for…

Exceptional winter storms affecting Western Iberia and extremes: diagnosis, modelling and multi-model ensemble projection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liberato, M. L. R.; Pinto, J. G.; Gil, V.; Ramos, A. M.; Trigo, R. M.

2017-12-01

Extratropical cyclones dominate autumn and winter weather over Western Europe and particularly over the Iberian Peninsula. Intense, high-impact storms are one of the major weather risks in the region, mostly due to the simultaneous occurrence of high winds and extreme precipitation events. These intense extratropical cyclones may result in windstorm damage, flooding and coastal storm surges, with large societal impacts. In Portugal, due to the extensive human use of coastal areas, the natural and built coastal environments have been amongst the most affected. In this work several historical winter storms that adversely affected the Western Iberian Peninsula are studied in detail in order to contribute to an improved assessment of the characteristics of these events. The diagnosis has been performed based on instrumental daily precipitation and wind records, on satellite images, on reanalysis data and through model simulations. For several examples the synoptic evolution and upper-level dynamics analysis of physical processes controlling the life cycle of extratropical storms associated with the triggering of the considered extreme events has also been accomplished. Furthermore, the space-time variability of the exceptionally severe storms affecting Western Iberia over the last century and under three climate scenarios (the historical simulation, the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) is presented. These studies contribute to improving the knowledge of atmospheric dynamics controlling the life cycle of midlatitude storms associated to severe weather (precipitation and wind) in the Iberian Peninsula. AcknowledgementsThis work is supported by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), Portugal, through project UID/GEO/50019/2013 - Instituto Dom Luiz. A. M. Ramos is also supported by a FCT postdoctoral grant (FCT/DFRH/SFRH/BPD/84328/2012).

F layer positive response to a geomagnetic storm - June 1972

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, N. J.; Grebowsky, J. M.; Mayr, H. G.; Harris, I.; Tulunay, Y. K.

1979-01-01

A circulation model of neutral thermosphere-ionosphere coupling is used to interpret in situ spacecraft measurements taken during a topside midlatitude ionospheric storm. The data are measurements of electron density taken along the circular polar orbit of Ariel 4 at 550 km during the geomagnetically disturbed period June 17-18, 1972. It is inferred that collisional momentum transfer from the disturbed neutral thermosphere to the ionosphere was the dominant midday process generating the positive F-layer storm phase in the summer hemisphere. In the winter hemisphere the positive storm phase drifted poleward in the apparent response to magnetospheric E x B drifts. A summer F-layer positive phase developed at the sudden commencement and again during the geomagnetic main phase; a winter F-layer positive phase developed only during the geomagnetic main phase. The observed seasonal differences in both the onsets and the magnitudes of the positive phases are attributed to the interhemispheric asymmetry in thermospheric dynamics.

Characteristics of ionospheric storms in East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xiao; Wang, Guojun; Shi, Jiankui

The ionosphere experiences intense response during the geomagnetic storm and it varies with latitude and longitude. The DPS-4 digisonde measurements and GPS-TEC data of ionospheric stations located at different latitudes in the longitudinal sector of 90-130E during 2002 to 2012 were analyzed to investigate the ionospheric effects in the different latitude of East Asia during geomagnetic storm. About 70 geomagnetic storms are selected according to the Dst index and observed data and they are in different seasons and different solar activity levels. A few quiet days’ averages of data before geomagnetic storm were used as the undisturbed level. Results show that for the middle and high latitude, the short-lived positive disturbance associated with the initial phase of the every storm was observed in each season and then the disturbances were negative till the termination of storm. At the low latitude, storm-time disturbances of foF2 have obvious diurnal, seasonal and solar cycle characteristics. Generally, geomagnetic activity will cause foF2 to increase at daytime and decrease at nighttime except for the summer in low solar activity period. The intensity of response of foF2 is stronger at nighttime than that at daytime. The negative ionospheric storm effect is the strongest in summer and the positive ionospheric storm effect is the strongest in winter. In high solar activity period, the diurnal variation of the response of foF2 is very pronounced in each season, and the strong ionospheric response can last several days. In low solar activity period, ionospheric response has very pronounced diurnal variation in winter only. It’s notable that geomagnetic activities occurred at local time nighttime can cause stronger and longer responses of foF2 at the low latitude. All in all, the obvious negative phase ionospheric storms often occurred at the low latitude. Moreover a notable phenomenon was observed for the low latitude, there are the intensive oscillations of foF2 occurring during the main storm phase of enhanced storm in Hainan, and it occurred in the morning generally. For the TEC data, strong disturbances can be observed simultaneously from high latitude to low latitude during the main phase of some storms. Generally strong/weak storms can cause the negative/positive phase storms of TEC in the low latitude and which are obvious in the daytime for the summer and winter and in the period from noon to midnight for the equinox. The differences of the responses of foF2 and TEC are also investigated.

Dominance of grain size impacts on seasonal snow albedo at open sites in New Hampshire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adolph, Alden C.; Albert, Mary R.; Lazarcik, James; Dibb, Jack E.; Amante, Jacqueline M.; Price, Andrea

2017-01-01

Snow cover serves as a major control on the surface energy budget in temperate regions due to its high reflectivity compared to underlying surfaces. Winter in the northeastern United States has changed over the last several decades, resulting in shallower snowpacks, fewer days of snow cover, and increasing precipitation falling as rain in the winter. As these climatic changes occur, it is imperative that we understand current controls on the evolution of seasonal snow albedo in the region. Over three winter seasons between 2013 and 2015, snow characterization measurements were made at three open sites across New Hampshire. These near-daily measurements include spectral albedo, snow optical grain size determined through contact spectroscopy, snow depth, snow density, black carbon content, local meteorological parameters, and analysis of storm trajectories using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model. Using analysis of variance, we determine that land-based winter storms result in marginally higher albedo than coastal storms or storms from the Atlantic Ocean. Through multiple regression analysis, we determine that snow grain size is significantly more important in albedo reduction than black carbon content or snow density. And finally, we present a parameterization of albedo based on days since snowfall and temperature that accounts for 52% of variance in albedo over all three sites and years. Our improved understanding of current controls on snow albedo in the region will allow for better assessment of potential response of seasonal snow albedo and snow cover to changing climate.

Analysis of twitter users' sharing of official new york storm response messages.

PubMed

Genes, Nicholas; Chary, Michael; Chason, Kevin

2014-01-01

Twitter is a social network where users read, send, and share snippets of text ("tweets"). Tweets can be disseminated through multiple means; on desktop computers, laptops, and mobile devices, over ethernet, Wi-Fi or cellular networks. This redundancy positions Twitter as a useful tool for disseminating information to the public during emergencies or disasters. Previous research on dissemination of information using Twitter has mostly investigated the characteristics of tweets that are most effective in raising consumer awareness about a new product or event. In particular, they describe characteristics that increase the chance the messages will be shared ("retweeted") by users. In comparison, little has been published on how information from municipal or state government agencies spreads on Twitter during emergency situations. Retweeting these messages is a way to enhance public awareness of potentially important instructions from public officials in a disaster. The aim of this study is to (1) describe the tweets of select New York State and New York City agencies by public officials surrounding two notable recent winter storms that required a large-scale emergency response, and (2) identify the characteristics of the tweets of public officials that were most disseminated (retweeted). For one week surrounding Superstorm Sandy (October 2012) and the winter blizzard Nemo (February 2013), we collected (1) tweets from the official accounts for six New York governmental agencies, and (2) all tweets containing the hashtags #sandy (or #nemo) and #nyc. From these data we calculated how many times a tweet was retweeted, controlling for differences in baseline activity in each account. We observed how many hashtags and links each tweet contained. We also calculated the lexical diversity of each tweet, a measure of the range of vocabulary used. During the Sandy storm, 3242 shared (retweeted) messages from public officials were collected. The lexical diversity of official tweets was similar (2.25-2.49) and well below the average for non-official tweets mentioning #sandy and #nyc (3.82). Most official tweets were with substantial retweets including a link for further reading. Of the 448 tweets analyzed from six official city and state Twitter accounts from the Nemo blizzard, 271 were related to the storm, and 174 had actionable information for the public. Actionable storm messages were retweeted approximately 24x per message, compared to 31x per message for general storm information. During two weather emergencies, New York public officials were able to convey storm-related information that was shared widely beyond existing follower bases, potentially improving situational awareness and disaster response. Official Sandy tweets, characterized by a lower lexical diversity score than other city- and Sandy-related tweets, were likely easier to understand, and often linked to further information and resources. Actionable information in the Nemo blizzard, such as specific instructions and cancellation notices, was not shared as often as more general warnings and "fun facts," suggesting agencies mix important instructions with more general news and trivia, as a way of reaching the broadest audience during a disaster.

Impacts of a Destructive and Well-Observed Cross-Country Winter Storm.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martner, Brooks E.; Rauber, Robert M.; Ramamurthy, Mohan K.; Rasmussen, Roy M.; Prater, Erwin T.

1992-02-01

A winter storm that crossed the continental United States in mid-February 1990 produced hazardous weather across a vast area of the nation. A wide range of severe weather was reported, including heavy snowfall; freezing rain and drizzle; thunderstorms with destructive winds, lightning, large hail, and tornadoes; prolonged heavy rain with subsequent flooding; frost damage to citrus orchards; and sustained destructive winds not associated with thunderstorms. Low-end preliminary estimates of impacts included 9 deaths, 27 injuries, and $120 million of property damage. At least 35 states and southeastern Canada were adversely affected. The storm occurred during the field operations of four independent atmospheric research projects that obtained special, detailed observations of it from the Rocky Mountains to the eastern great Lakes.

Diagnosis and Modeling of the Explosive Development of Winter Storms: Sensitivity to PBL Schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Pradhan, Prabodha K.

2014-05-01

The correct representation of extreme windstorms in regional models is of great importance for impact studies of climate change. The Iberian Peninsula has recently witnessed major damage from winter extratropical intense cyclones like Klaus (January 2009), Xynthia (February 2010) and Gong (January 2013) which formed over the mid-Atlantic, experienced explosive intensification while travelling eastwards at lower latitudes than usual [Liberato et al. 2011; 2013]. In this paper the explosive development of these storms is simulated by the advanced mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF v 3.4.1), initialized with NCEP Final Analysis (FNL) data as initial and lateral boundary conditions (boundary conditions updated in every 3 hours intervals). The simulation experiments are conducted with two domains, a coarser (25km) and nested (8.333km), covering the entire North Atlantic and Iberian Peninsula region. The characteristics of these storms (e.g. wind speed, precipitation) are studied from WRF model and compared with multiple observations. In this context simulations with different Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) schemes are performed. This approach aims at understanding which mechanisms favor the explosive intensification of these storms at a lower than usual latitudes, thus improving the knowledge of atmospheric dynamics (including small-scale processes) on controlling the life cycle of midlatitude extreme storms and contributing to the improvement in predictability and in our ability to forecast storms' impacts over Iberian Peninsula. Acknowledgments: This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER- 019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010). References: Liberato M.L.R., J.G. Pinto, I.F. Trigo, R.M. Trigo (2011) Klaus - an exceptional winter storm over Northern Iberia and Southern France. Weather 66: 330-334 doi:10.1002/wea.755 Liberato M.L.R., J.G. Pinto, R.M. Trigo, P. Ludwig, P. Ordóñez, D. Yuen, I.F. Trigo (2013) Explosive development of winter storm Xynthia over the Subtropical North Atlantic Ocean, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2239-2251, doi:10.5194/nhess-13-2239-2013

Bill spurs efforts to improve forecasting of inland flooding from tropical storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

Newly-enacted U.S. legislation to reduce the threat of inland flooding from tropical storms could provide a "laser beam" focus to dealing with this natural hazard, according to Rep. Bob Etheridge (D-N.C.), the chief sponsor of the bill.The Tropical Cyclone Inland Forecasting Improvement and Warning System Development Act, (PL. 107-253), signed into law on 29 October, authorizes the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP) to improve the capability to accurately forecast inland flooding from tropical storms through research and modeling.

The Use of Pre-Storm Boundary-Layer Baroclinicity in Determining and Operationally Implementing the Atlantic Surface Cyclone Intensification Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cione, Joseph; Pietrafes, Leonard J.

The lateral motion of the Gulf Stream off the eastern seaboard of the United States during the winter season can act to dramatically enhance the low-level baroclinicity within the coastal zone during periods of offshore cold advection. The ralative close proximity of the Gulf Stream current off the mid-Atlantic coast can result in the rapid and intense destabilization of the marine atmospheric boundary layer directly above and shoreward of the Gulf Stream within this region. This airmass modification period often precedes either wintertime coastal cyclogenesis or the cyclonic re-development of existing mid-latitude cyclones. A climatological study investigating the relationship between the severity of the pre-storm, cold advection period and subsequent cyclogenic intensification was undertaken by Cione et al. in 1993. Findings from this study illustrate that the thermal structure of the continental airmass as well as the position of the Gulf Stream front relative to land during the pre-storm period (i.e., 24-48 h prior to the initial cyclonic intensification) are linked to the observed rate of surface cyclonic deepening for storms that either advected into or initially developed within the Carolina-southeast Virginia offshore coastal zone. It is a major objective of this research to test the potential operational utility of this pre-storm low level baroclinic linkage to subsequent cyclogenesis in an actual National Weather Service (NWS) coastal winter storm forecast setting.The ability to produce coastal surface cyclone intensity forecasts recently became available to North Carolina State University researchers and NWS forecasters. This statistical forecast guidance utilizes regression relationships derived from a nine-season (January 1982-April 1990), 116-storm study conducted previously. During the period between February 1994 and February 1996, the Atlantic Surface Cyclone Intensification Index (ASCII) was successfully implemented in an operational setting by the NWS at the Raleigh-Durham (RAH) forecast office for 10 winter storms. Analysis of these ASCII forecasts will be presented.

Readiness of Military Installations for Increasing Heavy Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demissie, Y. K.; Mortuza, M. R.; Yan, E.

2016-12-01

Recent analysis of historical and future precipitation data suggests that the frequency and intensity of heavy storms are in raising trends in most parts of U.S. Majority of the climate models also suggest that increased winter snow pack, and late winter rainfall, may result in groundwater level rise and soil saturation that can lead to potentially severe flooding. The Department of Defense, which own more than 7,000 military installations throughout the world, has also recognized that changes in precipitation and increasing storm frequency and intensity present a real threat to most of its installations and impacting the national security. Identify vulnerabilities is the first step to reduce the risks posed by climate change and associated change in storm magnitude and frequency. In this study, a risk/consequence based approach was applied to evaluating the vulnerability of the Joint Base Lewis-McChord, which is located in suburb of Seattle. The intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves used to design storm water-related infrastructures was evaluated by considering the recent and expected changes in heavy storms in the region. The ability of existing stormwater management system to accommodate the changes in storms was assessed based on expected peaks and volumes of runoff, and suggestions were made to improve their overall effectiveness.

The likelihood of winter sprites over the Gulf Stream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, Colin; Burrows, William; King, Patrick

2002-11-01

With the recent introduction of the Canadian Lightning Detection Network (CLDN), it was revealed that during the winter months every year, the highest lightning activity within the network occurs over the Gulf Stream, southeast of Nova Scotia. These storms over the Gulf Stream, in addition to being of importance to trans-Atlantic shipping and aviation, have an unusually high fraction of positive polarity lightning, with unusually large peak currents. Such intense positive lightning flashes are known to generate transient luminous events (TLEs) such as sprites and elves in the upper atmosphere. It is found that many of these large positive discharges produce extremely low frequency (ELF) electromagnetic radiation detected at a field station in the Negev Desert, Israel, 8000 km away, in agreement with previously documented sprite observations. Since these winter storms occur in the same location every year, it provides a good opportunity for field experiments focused on studying winter sprites and oceanic thunderstorms.

February 1994 ice storm: forest resource damage assessment in northern Mississippi

Treesearch

Dennis M. Jacobs

2000-01-01

During February 8­11, 1994, a severe winter storm moved from Texas and Oklahoma to the mid-Atlantic depositing in northern Mississippi a major ice accumulation of 3 to 6 inches. An assessment of forest resource damage was initiated immediately after the storm by performing an airborne video mission to acquire aerial imagery linked to global positioning coordinates....

System designed for issuing landslide alerts in the San Francisco Bay area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Finley, D.

1987-01-01

A system for forecasting landslides during major storms has been developed for the San Francisco Bay area by the U.S Geological Survey and was successfully tested during heavy storms in the bay area during February 1986. Based on the forecasts provided by the USGS, the National Weather Service (NWS) included landslide warnings in its regular weather forecasts or in special weather statements transmitted to local radio and television stations and other news media. USGS scientists said the landslide forecasting and warning system for the San Francisco Bay area can be used as a prototype in developing similar systems for other parts of the Nation susceptible to landsliding. Studies show damage from landslides in the United States averages an estimated $1.5 billion per year. 

Tsunamis warning from space :Ionosphere seismology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Larmat, Carene

2012-09-04

Ionosphere is the layer of the atmosphere from about 85 to 600km containing electrons and electrically charged atoms that are produced by solar radiation. Perturbations - layering affected by day and night, X-rays and high-energy protons from the solar flares, geomagnetic storms, lightning, drivers-from-below. Strategic for radio-wave transmission. This project discusses the inversion of ionosphere signals, tsunami wave amplitude and coupling parameters, which improves tsunami warning systems.

NASA Sees Winter's Northeastern U.S. Snowcover Extend Farther South

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-02-17

A winter storm that moved through the Mid-Atlantic on Feb. 16 and 17, 2015 extended the northeastern U.S. snowcover farther south. Until this storm hit, southern New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania appeared snow-free on satellite imagery from the previous week. The overnight storm blanketed the entire states of New Jersey and Pennsylvania, as seen on this Feb. 16 image. The image was taken from the MODIS or Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer instrument that flies aboard NASA's Terra satellite. The snow cover from the storm actually extended even farther south than the image. Snowfall also blanketed West Virginia, Kentucky, Maryland, Delaware and Virginia, while freezing rain and icy conditions affected the Carolinas, Tennessee and Georgia. On Feb. 17, 2015, NOAA's National Weather Service noted "The winter storm that brought widespread snow, sleet and freezing rain to parts of the south-central U.S. and Mid-Atlantic will wind down as it moves offshore Tuesday. Lingering snow and freezing rain is possible early Tuesday for parts of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic, with rain across parts of the Southeast." Credit: NASA/GSFC/Jeff Schmaltz/MODIS Land Rapid Response Team NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

An evaluation of winter operational runway friction measurement equipment, procedures and research

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1995-01-25

For many years, the aviation community has struggled with runway friction reporting practices. Airport operations personnel, in taking on the responsibility for conducting friction measurements during winter storms, work diligently to keep up with ra...

The Mars Science Laboratory Optical Depth Record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemmon, M. T.

2014-07-01

MSL’s Mastcam has been used to measure atmospheric dust loading. The observations show dust storms and the settling of dust during southern fall/winter and show mean dust radius declining from 1.6 to 1.4 microns as the dust settled post-storm.

Equatorial Ionospheric Disturbance Field-Aligned Plasma Drifts Observed by C/NOFS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Ruilong; Liu, Libo; Balan, N.; Le, Huijun; Chen, Yiding; Zhao, Biqiang

2018-05-01

Using C/NOFS satellite observations, this paper studies the disturbance field-aligned plasma drifts in the equatorial topside ionosphere during eight geomagnetic storms in 2011-2015. During all six storms occurred in the solstices, the disturbance field-aligned plasma drift is from winter to summer hemisphere especially in the morning-midnight local time sector and the disturbance is stronger in June solstice. The two storms occurred at equinoxes have very little effect on the field-aligned plasma drift. Using the plasma temperature data from DMSP satellites and Global Positioning System-total electron content, it is suggested that the plasma density gradient seems likely to cause the disturbance winter-to-summer plasma drift while the role of plasma temperature gradient is opposite to the observed plasma drift.

The coming megafloods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, Michael D.; Ingram, B. Lynn

2013-01-01

Scientists who created a simulated megastorm, called ARkStorm, that was patterned after the 1861 flood but was less severe, found that such a torrent could force more than a million people to evacuate and cause $400 billion in losses if it happened in California today. Forecasters are getting better at predicting the arrival of atmospheric rivers, which will improve warnings about flooding from the common storms and about the potential for catastrophe from a megastorm.

Evaluation of ikonos satellite imagery for detecting ice storm damage to oak forests in Eastern Kentucky

Treesearch

W. Henry McNab; Tracy Roof

2006-01-01

Ice storms are a recurring landscape-scale disturbance in the eastern U.S. where they may cause varying levels of damage to upland hardwood forests. High-resolution Ikonos imagery and semiautomated detection of ice storm damage may be an alternative to manually interpreted aerial photography. We evaluated Ikonos multispectral, winter and summer imagery as a tool for...

Susceptibility of central hardwood trees to stem breakage due to ice glazing

Treesearch

KaDonna C. Randolph

2014-01-01

During January 26-28, 2009, a winter storm dropped a mix of rain, ice, and snow from Texas across the Ohio River Valley and into New England. The storm caused multiple fatalities and millions of dollars of property damage and was called "the biggest natural disaster in modern Kentucky history" (Brammer and Funk 2009: 13). The storm disturbed an estimated 2.4...

What Role do Nor'Easters have on the Jamaica Bay Wetlands Sediment Budget?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clarke, R. C.; Bentley, S. J.; Wang, H.; Smith, J.

2017-12-01

The wetlands of Jamaica Bay, located on the outskirts of Queens, New York, have lost over half their surface area in the last 50 years due both anthropogenic and natural causes, including channel dredging, urban drainage construction, and greater tidal amplitudes partially due to rising local sea levels. Superstorm Sandy made landfall in 2014 as a powerful coastal geomorphic agent, highlighting the vulnerability of that region to large cyclonic storms that are more commonly encountered along coastal reaches of southeastern North America. After this event, research aimed at quantifying the geomorphic impact of Superstorm Sandy and to evaluate the record of past documented major winter storms on Jamaica Bay's wetlands. 12 sediment cores were collected from the surface of remaining wetlands in August 2014 by the USGS Wetland and Aquatic Research Center; the cores have been analyzed for Pb-210/Cs-137 geochronology, organic content, and water content to establish chronology of mineral sediment supply to the wetlands over the past 120 years. Most cores were found to be organic-rich, marked with periodic cm-scale beds with increased mineral content. Historic storm data, dating as far back as the late 1800's, were used to identify hurricanes and major winter storms determined by the National Weather Service passing within 100 km of the study area. Likely storm-event deposits in each core were identified as layers with mineral content higher than the core mean plus one standard deviation, and were matched to historic events via radioisotope geochronology, incorporating age-model uncertainty. Overall, 22 out of the 35 defined storm layers match the timing of historic strong storms (within uncertainty ranging from 2 to 5 years) from 1894 to Superstorm Sandy in 2014. Our findings show that over multidecadal timescales, nor'easters and winter storms play a role in the vertical accretion of sediment in the Jamaica Bay wetlands, but are substantially less important than sediment delivery under typical tidal conditions. Event deposits from tropical cyclones are also present, but less common than those produced by frontal storms.

Numerical Modeling of Coastal Inundation and Sedimentation by Storm Surge, Tides, and Waves at Norfolk, Virginia, USA

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-07-01

hurricanes (tropical) with a 50-year and a 100-year return period, and one winter storm ( extratropical ) occurred in October 1982. There are a total of 15...under the 0-m and 2-m SLR scenarios, respectively. • Tropical and extratropical storms induce extensive coastal inundation around the military...1 NUMERICAL MODELING OF COASTAL INUNDATION AND SEDIMENTATION BY STORM SURGE, TIDES, AND WAVES AT NORFOLK, VIRGINIA, USA Honghai Li 1 , Lihwa Lin 1

a Process-Based Drought Early Warning Indicator for Supporting State Drought Mitigation Decision

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, R.; Fernando, D. N.; Pu, B.

2014-12-01

Drought prone states such as Texas requires creditable and actionable drought early warning ranging from seasonal to multi-decadal scales. Such information cannot be simply extracted from the available climate prediction and projections because of their large uncertainties at regional scales and unclear connections to the needs of the decision makers. In particular, current dynamic seasonal predictions and climate projections, such as those produced by the NOAA national multi-models ensemble experiment (NMME) and the IPCC AR5 (CMIP5) models, are much more reliable for winter and spring than for the summer season for the US Southern Plains. They also show little connection between the droughts in winter/spring and those in summer, in contrast to the observed dry memory from spring to summer over that region. To mitigate the weakness of dynamic prediction/projections, we have identified three key processes behind the spring-to-summer dry memory through observational studies. Based on these key processes and related fields, we have developed a multivariate principle component statistical model to provide a probabilistic summer drought early warning indicator, using the observed or predicted climate conditions in winter and spring on seasonal scale and climate projection for the mid-21stcentury. The summer drought early warning indicator is constructed in a similar way to the NOAA probabilistic predictions that are familiar to water resource managers. The indicator skill is assessed using the standard NOAA climate prediction assessment tools, i.e., the two alternative forced choice (2AFC) and the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC). Comparison with long-term observations suggest that this summer drought early warning indicator is able to capture nearly all the strong summer droughts and outperform the dynamic prediction in this regard over the US Southern Plains. This early warning indicator has been used by the state water agency in May 2014 in briefing the state drought preparedness council and will be provided to stake holders through the website of the Texas state water planning agency. We will also present the results of our ongoing work on using NASA satellite based soil moisture and vegetation stress measurements to further improve the reliability of the summer drought early warning indicator.

Event-driven sediment flux in Hueneme and Mugu submarine canyons, southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xu, J. P.; Swarzenski, P.W.; Noble, M.; Li, A.-C.

2010-01-01

Vertical sediment fluxes and their dominant controlling processes in Hueneme and Mugu submarine canyons off south-central California were assessed using data from sediment traps and current meters on two moorings that were deployed for 6 months during the winter of 2007. The maxima of total particulate flux, which reached as high as 300+ g/m2/day in Hueneme Canyon, were recorded during winter storm events when high waves and river floods often coincided. During these winter storms, wave-induced resuspension of shelf sediment was a major source for the elevated sediment fluxes. Canyon rim morphology, rather than physical proximity to an adjacent river mouth, appeared to control the magnitude of sediment fluxes in these two submarine canyon systems. Episodic turbidity currents and internal bores enhanced sediment fluxes, particularly in the lower sediment traps positioned 30 m above the canyon floor. Lower excess 210Pb activities measured in the sediment samples collected during periods of peak total particulate flux further substantiate that reworked shelf-, rather than newly introduced river-borne, sediments supply most of the material entering these canyons during storms.

Meteorological characteristics and overland precipitation impacts of atmospheric rivers affecting the West coast of North America based on eight years of SSM/I satellite observations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Neiman, P.J.; Ralph, F.M.; Wick, G.A.; Lundquist, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.

2008-01-01

The pre-cold-frontal low-level jet within oceanic extratropical cyclones represents the lower-tropospheric component of a deeper corridor of concentrated water vapor transport in the cyclone warm sector. These corridors are referred to as atmospheric rivers (ARs) because they are narrow relative to their length scale and are responsible for most of the poleward water vapor transport at midlatitudes. This paper investigates landfalling ARs along adjacent north- and south-coast regions of western North America. Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/ I) satellite observations of long, narrow plumes of enhanced integrated water vapor (IWV) were used to detect ARs just offshore over the eastern Pacific from 1997 to 2005. The north coast experienced 301 AR days, while the south coast had only 115. Most ARs occurred during the warm season in the north and cool season in the south, despite the fact that the cool season is climatologically wettest for both regions. Composite SSM/I IWV analyses showed landfalling wintertime ARs extending northeastward from the tropical eastern Pacific, whereas the summertime composites were zonally oriented and, thus, did not originate from this region of the tropics. Companion SSM/I composites of daily rainfall showed significant orographic enhancement during the landfall of winter (but not summer) ARs. The NCEP-NCAR global reanalysis dataset and regional precipitation networks were used to assess composite synoptic characteristics and overland impacts of landfalling ARs. The ARs possess strong vertically integrated horizontal water vapor fluxes that, on average, impinge on the West Coast in the pre-cold-frontal environment in winter and post-cold-frontal environment in summer. Even though the IWV in the ARs is greater in summer, the vapor flux is stronger in winter due to much stronger flows associated with more intense storms. The landfall of ARs in winter and north-coast summer coincides with anomalous warmth, a trough offshore, and ridging over the Intermountain West, whereas the south-coast summer ARs coincide with relatively cold conditions and a near-coast trough. ARs have a much more profound impact on near-coast precipitation in winter than summer, because the terrain-normal vapor flux is stronger and the air more nearly saturated in winter. During winter, ARs produce roughly twice as much precipitation as all storms. In addition, wintertime ARs with the largest SSM/I IWV are tied to more intense storms with stronger flows and vapor fluxes, and more precipitation. ARs generally increase snow water equivalent (SWE) in autumn/winter and decrease SWE in spring. On average, wintertime SWE exhibits normal gains during north-coast AR storms and above-normal gains during the south-coast AR storms. The north-coast sites are mostly lower in altitude, where warmer-than-normal conditions more frequently yield rain. During those events when heavy rain from a warm AR storm falls on a preexisting snowpack, flooding is more likely to occur. ?? 2008 American Meteorological Society.

Overview and first results of the Wind and Storms Experiment (WASTEX): a field campaign to observe the formation of gusts using a Doppler lidar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pantillon, Florian; Wieser, Andreas; Adler, Bianca; Corsmeier, Ulrich; Knippertz, Peter

2018-05-01

Wind gusts are responsible for most damages in winter storms over central Europe, but capturing their small scale and short duration is a challenge for both models and observations. This motivated the Wind and Storms Experiment (WASTEX) dedicated to investigate the formation of gusts during the passage of extratropical cyclones. The field campaign took place during the winter 2016-2017 on a former waste deposit located close to Karlsruhe in the Upper Rhine Valley in southwest Germany. Twelve extratropical cyclones were sampled during WASTEX with a Doppler lidar system performing vertical scans in the mean wind direction and complemented with a Doppler C-band radar and a 200 m instrumented tower. First results are provided here for the three most intense storms and include a potential sting jet, a unique direct observation of a convective gust and coherent boundary-layer structures of strong winds.

Storm Warning Service

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1993-01-01

A Huntsville meteorologist of Baron Services, Inc. has formed a commercial weather advisory service. Weather information is based on data from Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) collected from antennas in Alabama and Tennessee. Bob Baron refines and enhances MSFC's real time display software. Computer data is changed to audio data for radio transmission, received by clients through an antenna and decoded by computer for display. Using his service, clients can monitor the approach of significant storms and schedule operations accordingly. Utilities and emergency management officials are able to plot a storm's path. A recent agreement with two other companies will promote continued development and marketing.

New Method for Estimating Landslide Losses for Major Winter Storms in California.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wills, C. J.; Perez, F. G.; Branum, D.

2014-12-01

We have developed a prototype system for estimating the economic costs of landslides due to winter storms in California. This system uses some of the basic concepts and estimates of the value of structures from the HAZUS program developed for FEMA. Using the only relatively complete landslide loss data set that we could obtain, data gathered by the City of Los Angeles in 1978, we have developed relations between landslide susceptibility and loss ratio for private property (represented as the value of wood frame structures from HAZUS). The landslide loss ratios estimated from the Los Angeles data are calibrated using more generalized data from the 1982 storms in the San Francisco Bay area to develop relationships that can be used to estimate loss for any value of 2-day or 30-day rainfall averaged over a county. The current estimates for major storms are long projections from very small data sets, subject to very large uncertainties, so provide a very rough estimate of the landslide damage to structures and infrastructure on hill slopes. More importantly, the system can be extended and improved with additional data and used to project landslide losses in future major winter storms. The key features of this system—the landslide susceptibility map, the relationship between susceptibility and loss ratio, and the calibration of estimates against losses in past storms—can all be improved with additional data. Most importantly, this study highlights the importance of comprehensive studies of landslide damage. Detailed surveys of landslide damage following future storms that include locations and amounts of damage for all landslides within an area are critical for building a well-calibrated system to project future landslide losses. Without an investment in post-storm landslide damage surveys, it will not be possible to improve estimates of the magnitude or distribution of landslide damage, which can range up to billions of dollars.

Trusted Spotter Network Austria - a new standard to utilize crowdsourced weather and impact observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krennert, Thomas; Kaltenberger, Rainer; Pistotnik, Georg; Holzer, Alois M.; Zeiler, Franz; Stampfl, Mathias

2018-05-01

Information from voluntary storm spotters has been an increasingly important part for the severe weather warning process at the Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie and Geodynamik (ZAMG), Austria's National Weather Service, for almost 15 years. In 2010 a collaboration was formalized and an annual training was established to educate voluntary observers into Trusted Spotters. The return of this investment is a higher credibility of their observations after these spotters have undergone a basic meteorological training and have become aware of their responsibility. The European Severe Storms Laboratory (ESSL) was included to this collaboration to adopt their successful quality control system of severe weather reports, which is employed in the European Severe Weather Database ESWD. That way, reports from Trusted Spotters automatically obtain a higher quality flag, which enables a faster processing by forecasters on duty for severe weather warnings, when time is a critical issue. The concept of combining training for voluntary storm spotters and a thorough quality management was recognized as a Best Practice Model by the European Meteorological Society. We propose to apply this concept also in other European countries and present its advancement into an even broader, pan-European approach. The European Weather Observer app EWOB, recently released by ESSL, provides a novel and easy-to-handle tool to submit weather and respective impact observations. We promote its use to provide better data and information for a further real-time improvement of severe weather warnings.

Final Scientific/Technical Report for Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Extratropical Storm Track Activity over the U.S. using NMME data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chang, Edmund Kar-Man

The goals of the project are: 1) To develop and assess subseasonal to seasonal prediction products for storm track activity derived from NMME data; 2) Assess how much of the predictable signal can be associated with ENSO and other modes of large scale low frequency atmosphere-ocean variability; and 3) Further explore the link between storm track variations and extreme weather statistics. Significant findings of this project include the followings: 1) Our assessment of NMME reforecasts of storm track variability has demonstrated that NMME models have substantial skill in predicting storm track activity in the vicinity of North America - Subseasonalmore » skill is high only for leads of less than 1 month. However, seasonal (winter) prediction skill near North America is high even out to 4 to 5 months lead - Much of the skill for leads of 1 month or longer is related to the influence of ENSO - Nevertheless, lead 0 NMME predictions are significantly more skillful than those based on ENSO influence 2) Our results have demonstrated that storm track variations highly modulate the frequency of occurrence of weather extremes - Extreme cold, high wind, and extreme precipitation events in winter - Extreme heat events in summer - These results suggest that NMME storm track predictions can be developed to serve as a useful guidance to assist the formulation of monthly/seasonal outlooks« less

Ocean modelling and Early-Warning System for the Gulf of Thailand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Lima Rego, Joao; Yan, Kun; Sisomphon, Piyamarn; Thanathanphon, Watin; Twigt, Daniel; Irazoqui Apecechea, Maialen

2017-04-01

Storm surges associated with severe tropical cyclones are among the most hazardous and damaging natural disasters to coastal areas. The Gulf of Thailand (GoT) has been periodically affected by typhoon induced storm surges in the past (e.g. storm Harriet in 1962, storm Gay in 1989 and storm Linda in 1997). Due to increased touristic / economic development and increased population density in the coastal zone, the combined effect and risk of high water level and increased rainfall / river discharge has dramatically increased and are expected to increase in future due to climate change effects. This presentation describes the development and implementation of the first real-time operational storm surge, wave and wave setup forecasting system in the GoT, a joint applied research initiative by Deltares in The Netherlands and the Hydro and Agro Informatics Institute (HAII) in Thailand. The modelling part includes a new hydrodynamic model to simulate tides and storm surges and two wave models (regional and local). The hydrodynamic model is based on Delft3D Flexible Mesh, capable of simulating water levels and detailed flows. The regional and the recently-developed local wave model are based on the SWAN model, a third-generation wave model. The operational platform is based on Delft-FEWS software, which coordinates all the data inputs, the modelling tasks and the automatic forecast exports including overland inundation in the upper Gulf of Thailand. The main objective of the Gulf of Thailand EWS is to provide daily accurate storm surge, wave and wave setup estimates automatically with various data exports possibilities to support this task. It adds a coastal component to HAII's existing practice of providing daily reports on fluvial flood forecasts, used for decision-support in issuing flood warnings for inland water systems in Thailand. Every day, three-day coastal forecasts are now produced based on the latest regional meteorological predictions. Examples are given to illustrate the system's development and main features, with a focus on decision-support products.

The Effects of PM2.5 from Asian Dust Storms on Emergency Room Visits for Cardiovascular and Respiratory Diseases.

PubMed

Liu, Ssu-Ting; Liao, Chu-Yung; Kuo, Cheng-Yu; Kuo, Hsien-Wen

2017-04-16

A case-crossover study examined how PM 2.5 from Asian Dust Storms (ADS) affects the number of emergency room (ER) admissions for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and respiratory diseases (RDs). Our data indicated that PM 2.5 concentration from ADS was highly correlated with ER visits for CVDs and RDs. The odds ratios (OR) increased by 2.92 (95% CI: 1.22-5.08) and 1.86 (95% CI: 1.30-2.91) per 10 µg/m³ increase in PM 2.5 levels, for CVDs and RDs, respectively. A 10 µg/m³ increase in PM 2.5 from ADSs was significantly associated with an increase in ER visits for CVDs among those 65 years of age and older (an increase of 2.77 in OR) and for females (an increase of 3.09 in OR). In contrast, PM 2.5 levels had a significant impact on RD ER visits among those under 65 years of age (OR = 1.77). The risk of ER visits for CVDs increased on the day when the ADS occurred in Taiwan and the day after (lag 0 and lag 1); the corresponding risk increase for RDs only increased on the fifth day after the ADS (lag 5). In Taiwan's late winter and spring, the severity of ER visits for CVDs and RDs increases. Environmental protection agencies should employ an early warning system for ADS to reduce high-risk groups' exposure to PM 2.5 .

Impact of storms on coastlines: preparing for the future without forgetting the past? Examples from European coastlines using a Storm Impact Database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciavola, Paolo; Garnier, Emmanuel; Ferreira, Oscar; Spencer, Thomas; Armaroli, Clara

2017-04-01

Severe storms have historically affected many European coastlines but the impact of each storm has been evaluated in different ways in different countries, often using local socio-economic impact criteria (e.g. loss of lives and damage to properties). Although the Xynthia (2010) storm, Atlantic coast of France, was the largest coastal disaster of the last 50 years, similar events have previously impacted Europe. The 1953 storm surge in the southern North Sea, resulted in over 2000 deaths and extensive flooding and was the catalyst for post WWII improvements in flood defences and storm early warning systems. On a longer timescale, the very extreme storm of 1634 AD re-configured Wadden Sea coastlines, accompanied by thousands of deaths. Establishing patterns of coastal risk and vulnerability is greatly helped by the use of historical sources, as these allow the development of more complete time series of storm events and their impacts. The work to be presented was supported by the EU RISC-KIT (Resilience-Increasing Strategies for Coasts - toolKIT) Project. RISC-KIT (http://www.risckit.eu/np4/home.html) is a EU FP7 Collaborative project that has developed methods, tools and management approaches to reduce risk and increase resilience to low frequency, high-impact hydro-meteorological events in the coastal zone. These products will enhance forecasting, prediction and early warning capabilities, improve the assessment of long-term coastal risk and optimize the mix of prevention, mitigation and preparedness measures. We analyse historical large-scale events occurred from The Middle Ages to the 1960s at the case study sites of North Norfolk Coast (UK), the Charente-Maritime and Vendée coast (France), the Cinque Terre-Liguria (Italy), the Emilia-Romagna coast (Italy), and the Ria Formosa coast (Portugal). The work presented here uses a database of events built by the project, examining records for the last 300 years, including the characteristics of the storms as well as recorded losses. Finally, lessons learned will be presented, understanding the interaction between DRR elements such as prevention, resilience, mitigation and preparedness. The project's database is publicly available (http://risckit.cloudapp.net/risckit/#/)

Severe Weather Guide - Mediterranean Ports. 4. Augusta Bay

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-03-01

the year. The track o-f strong extratropical storms has moved northward and poses little tiireat to Augusta Bay. Sea breezes are daily occurrences...as temperatures, begin to moderate. Extratropi cal systems begin to transit Europe as the storm track moves southward in advance of the winter...SUB-GROUP 18. SUBJECT TERMS {Continue on reverse if necessary and identify by block number) Storm haven Mediterranean meteorology Augusta Bay

Long-Range Operational Military Forecasts for Afghanistan

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-03-01

the winter and early spring months with eastward–moving extratropical synoptic storms , such as the Cyprus and Genoa low pressure systems out of the...significant impact on the storm track, temperature, and precipitation across the Northern Atlantic and into Europe and the Mediterranean. The positive...advection of moisture out of the Arabian Sea or out of central Asia. The NAO impacts on 850hPa temperatures are associated with variations in storm

Long Range Forecast Possibilities for X-Band Radar Construction on Shemya

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-05-24

strong winds, since the Aleutian Low and expanding polar vortex affect the region in the winter, as do tropical storms and frontal passages in the...summer. This, combined with Shemya being located near the exit region of the climatological storm track off the East Asian continent, makes the island...12-13 5. Path of tropical storms in the North Pacific, for the entire 160-year period

A report from the Space Science and Engineering Center, the University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1985-01-01

Operational forecasters have habitually been plagued with the problems associated with acquisition, display, and dissemination of data used in preparing forecasts. The centralized storm information system (CSIS) experiment provided an operational forecaster with an interactive computer system which could perform these preliminary tasks more quickly and accurately than any human could. CSIS objectives pertaining to improved severe storms forecasting and warning procedures are addressed.

Satellite Shows Developing U.S. Nor'easter

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

National Weather Service forecasters have been tracking a low pressure area that moved from the Midwest into the Atlantic Ocean today, and is expected to become a strong nor'easter that will bring blizzard conditions to the northeastern U.S. The path of the system was captured in a NASA movie of NOAA's GOES-East satellite imagery. An animation of visible and infrared imagery from NOAA's Geostationary Operational Environmental or GOES satellite captured over the period of January 24 through 26 showed the progression of the developing nor'easter. The satellite animation began on Jan. 24 when clouds associated with a cold front preceding the low, pushed off the U.S. East coast. The front was followed by a low pressure area that moved from the Midwest to the southeast. That low moved over the Carolinas and exited into the Atlantic Ocean on Jan. 26. NOAA's National Weather Service forecast calls for the low to intensify along the Eastern Seaboard and bring blizzard conditions to the northeastern U.S. on Monday night, January 26 and Tuesday, January 27. On Monday, January 26, 2015, the National Weather Service noted: A storm system off the East Coast will continue to strengthen as it develops into a major nor'easter on Monday. As the storm moves up the coast, it is expected to bring snowfall of 1-3 feet or more to many parts of the Northeast through Tuesday evening, including New York City and Boston. Strong, gusty winds will combine with the snow to create blizzard conditions along and near the coast. Winter storm warnings are in effect for the panhandles of West Virginia and Maryland, much of interior New England down to the northern Mid-Atlantic as well as for Nantucket Island, Massachusetts. Winter weather advisories are in effect for portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and the southern Appalachians as well as a narrow area across interior New England. To create the video and imagery, NASA/NOAA's GOES Project located at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland overlays the cloud data from NOAA's GOES-East satellite on a true-color image of land and ocean created by data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, or MODIS, instrument that flies aboard NASA's Aqua and Terra satellites. Together, these data create the entire animation of the storm and show its movement. GOES satellites provide the kind of continuous monitoring necessary for intensive data analysis. Geostationary describes an orbit in which a satellite is always in the same position with respect to the rotating Earth. This allows GOES to hover continuously over one position on Earth's surface, appearing stationary. As a result, GOES provide a constant vigil for the atmospheric "triggers" for severe weather conditions such as tornadoes, flash floods, hail storms and hurricanes. For updated information about the storm system, visit NOAA's NWS website: www.weather.gov For more information about GOES satellites, visit: www.goes.noaa.gov/ or goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/ Rob Gutro NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center

[Application of exponential smoothing method in prediction and warning of epidemic mumps].

PubMed

Shi, Yun-ping; Ma, Jia-qi

2010-06-01

To analyze the daily data of epidemic Mumps in a province from 2004 to 2008 and set up exponential smoothing model for the prediction. To predict and warn the epidemic mumps in 2008 through calculating 7-day moving summation and removing the effect of weekends to the data of daily reported mumps cases during 2005-2008 and exponential summation to the data from 2005 to 2007. The performance of Holt-Winters exponential smoothing is good. The result of warning sensitivity was 76.92%, specificity was 83.33%, and timely rate was 80%. It is practicable to use exponential smoothing method to warn against epidemic Mumps.

The Early-Warning System for incoming storm surge and tide in the Republic of Mauritius

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogaard, Tom; de Lima Rego, Joao; Vatvani, Deepak; Virasami, Renganaden; Verlaan, Martin

2016-04-01

The Republic of Mauritius (ROM) is a group of islands in the South West of the Indian Ocean, consisting of the main islands of Mauritius, Rodrigues and Agalega and the archipelago of Saint Brandon. The ROM is particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, especially in the coastal zone, where a convergence of accelerating sea level rise and increasing intensity of tropical cyclones is expected to result in considerable economic loss, humanitarian stresses, and environmental degradation. Storm surges and swell waves are expected to be aggravated through sea level rise and climate change effects on weather patterns. Adaptation to increased vulnerability requires a re-evaluation of existing preparedness measures. The focus of this project is on more effective preparedness and issuing of alerts developing a fully-automated Early-Warning System for incoming storm surge and tide, together with the Mauritius Meteorological Services and the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Centre (NDRRMC), such that coastal communities in Mauritius, Rodrigues and Agalega Islands are able to evacuate timely and safely in case of predicted extreme water levels. The Mauritius Early-Warning System for storm surge and tide was implemented using software from Deltares' Open-Source and free software Community. A set of five depth-averaged Delft3D-FLOW hydrodynamic models are run every six-hours with a forecast horizon of three days, simulating water levels along the coast of the three main islands. Two regional models of horizontal resolution 5km force the three detailed models of 500m resolution; all models are forced at the surface by the 0.25° NOAA/GFS meteorological forecasts. In addition, our Wind-Enhancement Scheme is used to blend detailed cyclone track bulletin's info with the larger-scale Numerical Weather Predictions. Measured data is retrieved near real-time from available Automatic Weather Stations. All these workflows are managed by the operational platform software, Delft-FEWS. The presently operational Mauritius Early-Warning System produces a set of intuitive tables for each island, containing time- and space-varying information on threshold crossings by predicted water levels. At multiple locations for each island of the ROM, the operator is informed in one glance about the recommended preparedness level, from "Safe" to "Watch", "Alert" or "Warning" based on water level forecasts. The HTML page was designed together with the MMS and the NDRRMC, in order to be easy to interpret and disseminate by local authorities.

Coronal Mass Ejection early-warning mission by solar-photon sailcraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vulpetti, Giovanni; Circi, Christian; Pino, Tommaso

2017-11-01

A preliminary investigation of the early warning of solar storms caused by Coronal Mass Ejection has been carried out. A long warning time could be obtained with a sailcraft synchronous with the Earth-Moon barycenter, and stationed well below the L1 point. In this paper, the theory of heliocentric synchronous sailcraft is set up, its perturbed orbit is analyzed, and a potential solution capable of providing an annual synchrony is carried out. A simple analysis of the response from a low-mass electrochromic actuator for the realization of station-keeping attitude maneuvers is put forwards, and an example of propellantless re-orientation maneuver is studied.

Interannual variability of the North Pacific winter storm track and its relationship with extratropical atmospheric circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Xiaojiao; Zhang, Yaocun

2018-01-01

Interannual variability of the North Pacific storm track and the three-dimensional atmosphere circulation during winter are investigated using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data during 1950-2015. Results show that year-to-year variations of the storm track exhibit two principal modes, i.e. the monopole intensity change and the meridional shift of the storm track, respectively. The intensity change mode is linked to weakening of the Siberian high, northward shift of the western Pacific jet stream and Aleutian Low, and well corresponding to the Western Pacific teleconnection. The meridional shift mode is related to intensification and south-eastward extension of western Pacific jet stream and Aleutian Low, and linked to the Pacific-North America teleconnection. The internal atmospheric dynamics responsible for the storm track variability is further investigated from the perspective of wave-flow energy conversion. For the intensity change mode, accompanied by the enhanced baroclinity over the entrance region of the storm track, more energy is converted from mean available potential energy to eddy available potential energy and then transferred to eddy kinetic energy, which is favorable for the overall enhancement of the storm track intensity. For the meridional shift mode, more energy is transformed from mean available potential energy to eddy available potential energy and further transferred to eddy kinetic energy over the southern (northern) areas of the storm track, contributing to the southward (northward) shift of the storm track. Additionally, the increased (decreased) conversion from mean-flow kinetic energy to eddy kinetic energy over the north-eastern Pacific region is also in favor of the southward (northward) shift of the storm track.

Winter storms drive rapid phenotypic, regulatory, and genomic shifts in the green anole lizard.

PubMed

Campbell-Staton, Shane C; Cheviron, Zachary A; Rochette, Nicholas; Catchen, Julian; Losos, Jonathan B; Edwards, Scott V

2017-08-04

Extreme environmental perturbations offer opportunities to observe the effects of natural selection in wild populations. During the winter of 2013-2014, the southeastern United States endured an extreme cold event. We used thermal performance, transcriptomics, and genome scans to measure responses of lizard populations to storm-induced selection. We found significant increases in cold tolerance at the species' southern limit. Gene expression in southern survivors shifted toward patterns characteristic of northern populations. Comparing samples before and after the extreme winter, 14 genomic regions were differentiated in the surviving southern population; four also exhibited signatures of local adaptation across the latitudinal gradient and implicate genes involved in nervous system function. Together, our results suggest that extreme winter events can rapidly produce strong selection on natural populations at multiple biological levels that recapitulate geographic patterns of local adaptation. Copyright © 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

Response of extreme floods in the southwestern United States to climatic variations in the late Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ely, Lisa L.

1997-07-01

A regional synthesis of paleoflood chronologies on rivers in Arizona and southern Utah reveals that the largest floods over the last 5000 years cluster into distinct time periods that are related to regional and global climatic fluctuations. The flood chronologies were constructed using fine-grained slackwater deposits that accumulate in protected areas along the margins of bedrock canyons and selectively preserve evidence of the largest events. High-magnitude floods were frequent on rivers throughout the region from 5000 to 3600 14C yrs BP (dendrocalibrated age = 3800-2200 BC) and increased again after 2200 BP (400 BC), with particularly prominent peaks in magnitude and frequency around 1100-900 BP (AD 900-1100) and after 500 yrs BP (AD 1400). In contrast, the periods 3600-2200 BP (2200-400 BC) and 800-600 yrs BP (1200-1400 AD) are marked by sharp decreases in the occurrence of large floods on these rivers. In the modern record, storms that generate large floods (≥ 10-year) in the region fall into three categories: (1) winter North Pacific frontal storms; (2) late-summer and fall storms that draw in moisture from recurved Pacific tropical cyclones; and (3) summer storms, mainly convective thunderstorms. Winter storms and tropical cyclones are associated with the most severe floods on the rivers in this study, and are the most probable causes of the paleofloods over the last 5000 years. Floods from both winter storms and tropical cyclones occur when deep mid-latitude troughs steer storm systems into the region. Composite anomaly maps of daily 700-mbar heights indicate that these floods are associated with a low-pressure anomaly off the California coast and a high-pressure anomaly over the Aleutians or Gulf of Alaska. A strong connection exists between the negative phase of the Southern Oscillation Index (often associated with El Nin˜o conditions) and the large floods associated with winter storms and tropical cyclones. The paleoflood records confirm the existence of centennial-scale variations in the conditions conducive to the occurrence of extreme floods and flood-generating storms in this region. The episodes with an increased frequency of high-magnitude floods coincide with periods of cool, wet climate in the western U.S., whereas warm intervals, such as the Medieval Warm Period, are times of dramatic decreases in the number of large floods. A positive relationship between the paleofloods and long-term variations in the frequency of El Nin˜o events is evident over the last 1000 years. This relationship continues over at least the last 3000 years with warm coastal sea-surface temperatures indicative of El Nin˜o-like conditions.

Use of radar rainfall estimates and forecasts to prevent flash flood in real time by using a road inundation warning system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Versini, Pierre-Antoine

2012-01-01

SummaryImportant damages occur in small headwater catchments when they are hit by severe storms with complex spatio-temporal structure, sometimes resulting in flash floods. As these catchments are mostly not covered by sensor networks, it is difficult to forecast these floods. This is particularly true for road submersions, representing major concerns for flood event managers. The use of Quantitative Precipitation Estimates and Forecasts (QPE/QPF) especially based on radar measurements could particularly be adequate to evaluate rainfall-induced risks. Although their characteristic time and space scales would make them suitable for flash flood modelling, the impact of their uncertainties remain uncertain and have to be evaluated. The Gard region (France) has been chosen as case study. This area is frequently affected by severe flash floods, and an application devoted to the road network has also been recently developed for the North part of this region. This warning system combines distributed hydro-meteorological modelling and susceptibility analysis to provide warnings of road inundations. The warning system has been tested on the specific storm of the 29-30 September 2007. During this event, around 200 mm dropped on the South part of the Gard and many roads were submerged. Radar-based QPE and QPF have been used to forecast the exact location of road submersions and the results have been compared to the effective road submersions actually occurred during the event as listed by the emergency services. Used on an area it has not been calibrated, the results confirm that the road submersion warning system represents a promising tool for anticipating and quantifying the consequences of storm events at ground. It rates the submersion risk with an acceptable level of accuracy and demonstrates also the quality of high spatial and temporal resolution radar rainfall data in real time, and the possibility to use them despite their uncertainties. However because of the quality of rainfall forecasts falls drastically with time, it is not often sufficient to provide valuable information for lead times exceeding 1 h.

Meteorological conditions in a thinner Arctic sea ice regime from winter to summer during the Norwegian Young Sea Ice expedition (N-ICE2015)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, Lana; Hudson, Stephen R.; Walden, Von P.; Graham, Robert M.; Granskog, Mats A.

2017-07-01

Atmospheric measurements were made over Arctic sea ice north of Svalbard from winter to early summer (January-June) 2015 during the Norwegian Young Sea Ice (N-ICE2015) expedition. These measurements, which are available publicly, represent a comprehensive meteorological data set covering the seasonal transition in the Arctic Basin over the new, thinner sea ice regime. Winter was characterized by a succession of storms that produced short-lived (less than 48 h) temperature increases of 20 to 30 K at the surface. These storms were driven by the hemispheric scale circulation pattern with a large meridional component of the polar jet stream steering North Atlantic storms into the high Arctic. Nonstorm periods during winter were characterized by strong surface temperature inversions due to strong radiative cooling ("radiatively clear state"). The strength and depth of these inversions were similar to those during the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) campaign. In contrast, atmospheric profiles during the "opaquely cloudy state" were different to those from SHEBA due to differences in the synoptic conditions and location within the ice pack. Storm events observed during spring/summer were the result of synoptic systems located in the Barents Sea and the Arctic Basin rather than passing directly over N-ICE2015. These synoptic systems were driven by a large-scale circulation pattern typical of recent years, with an Arctic Dipole pattern developing during June. Surface temperatures became near-constant 0°C on 1 June marking the beginning of summer. Atmospheric profiles during the spring and early summer show persistent lifted temperature and moisture inversions that are indicative of clouds and cloud processes.

Mediterranean Storms: An Integrated Approach of Risk Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karageorgou, H.; Riza, E.; Linos, A.; Papanikolaou, D.

2010-09-01

Disaster by UN definition is "a serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society, involving widespread human, material, economic, or environmental losses and impacts, which exceeds the ability of the affected community or society to cope using only its own resources". Mediterranean storms induce flash floods caused by excessive amounts of rainfall within a short lasting period of time. The intensity and duration of precipitation, region geomorphology, urbanization and different governmental emergency management structures trigger different consequences between Mediterranean countries. The integrated approach in management of storm risk represents a holistic perspective including interactions between government, science and technology institutions, developing agencies, private sector, NGOs and public. Local authorities and national government are responsible for the design, preparation and decision on storm risk management policies and strategies considering scientific risk identifying, assessing and understanding. Efficient governance management requires satisfied response to early warning systems, functionality of the affected systems upon which society depends and appropriate focus on variable interest, beliefs, values and ideologies between social groups. Also an appropriate balancing of benefits and costs in an efficient and equitable manner is important for the governance risk management. Natural sciences in corporation with the engineering science have developed effective early prediction, warning and monitoring systems on storm and flood risk. The health sciences use prediction systems for health related hazards and consequences and the social sciences research estimates the human resilience during disasters and the factors which affect and determine the human behavior. Also social sciences survey the response of public to early warning messages, the appropriate communicative methods to distributing messages and mechanisms to improve public response. The available and applied science and technology in prediction and early warning systems rely on the close collaboration between scientists and policy makers to achieve effective disaster prevention of human life and mitigation of damages. Developing agencies approach risk management as an integral part of development and encourage activities and measures to reduce the exposure and vulnerability to natural hazards through early warning systems, building codes, land use plans and disaster sensitive development plans. The human settlement and investment in high risk floodplains place greater numbers of people and economic assets in danger of being affected by storms and floods. Disasters and development are highly inter-related. Recurrent disasters and frequent localized disasters erode development and conversely the development processes can reduce disaster risk, or create new risks. The private sector participation in risk reduction efforts can help local communities mitigate disasters and increases the benefits of the businesses. The private insurance sector is highly involved in the prevention of disaster caused by natural hazards especially storms and floods. The collaboration between academic community and the insurance sector indicates the linkages between the mutual insurance actions and risk culture. Also tourism industry and private critical infrastructure sector get involved in prevention measures and activities against storm and flood risks to build sustainable functionality and keep public trust. NGOs focus on social, cultural, environmental, educational, or health issues in disaster management and their members are educated and experienced on their area of operations. The staff of local and national NGOs is familiar with culture, languages, governance structures, social networks, climate and geography of the affected area and holds a unique understanding of the specific problems of the affected population. Additionally, NGO’s operations do not suffer from bureaucracy and therefore are able to deploy on very short notice. The public awareness, behavior and response to disasters depend on the knowledge about the risk, the understanding of the information and the translation of what it means in their own particular circumstances. The majority of people judges the information to be credible and discusses the meaning of information with trusted family members, friends and colleagues to decide the next action. Well educated people, efficient management of previous experiences, successful communication methods and trust on government and authorities contribute towards efficient public response on disasters.

Public understanding of cyclone warning in India: Can wind be predicted?

PubMed

Dash, Biswanath

2015-11-01

In spite of meteorological warning, many human lives are lost every year to cyclone mainly because vulnerable populations were not evacuated on time to a safe shelter as per recommendation. It raises several questions, most prominently what explains people's behaviour in the face of such danger from a cyclonic storm? How do people view meteorological advisories issued for cyclone and what role they play in defining the threat? What shapes public response during such situation? This article based on an ethnographic study carried out in coastal state of Odisha, India, argues that local public recognising inherent limitations of meteorological warning, fall back on their own system of observation and forecasting. Not only are the contents of cyclone warning understood, its limitations are accommodated and explained. © The Author(s) 2014.

Intercomparison of Targeted Observation Guidance for Tropical Cyclones in the Northwestern Pacific

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-08-01

sensitivity of NCVAR is usually located near the midlatitude jet or extratropical storm , where high winds may be collocated with large DLM wind variance or the...the six guidance products and to interpret the dynamical systems affecting the TC motion in the northwestern Pacific. Among the three storms studied...Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Winter Storms Corresponding author address: Dr. Chun-Chieh Wu, Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, No

Specification Guide for Snow Removal Vehicles for Rail Transit Systems

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1983-11-01

During the Winter of 1977-1978, a major snow storm shut down the Boston transit system for almost a week and the Winter of 1978-1979 produced similar snow conditions that paraylzed the Chicago transit system and disabled more than half of their rail ...

Sources of Wind Variability at a Single Station in Complex Terrain During Tropical Cyclone Passage

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-12-01

Mesoscale Prediction System CPA Closest point of approach ET Extratropical transition FNMOC Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center...forecasts. However, 2 the TC forecast tracks and warnings they issue necessarily focus on the large-scale structure of the storm , and are not...winds at one station. Also, this technique is a storm - centered forecast and even if the grid spacing is on order of one kilometer, it is unlikely

Reduced death rates from cyclones in Bangladesh: what more needs to be done?

PubMed Central

Hashizume, Masahiro; Kolivras, Korine N; Overgaard, Hans J; Das, Bivash; Yamamoto, Taro

2012-01-01

Abstract Tropical storms, such as cyclones, hurricanes and typhoons, present major threats to coastal communities. Around two million people worldwide have died and millions have been injured over the past two centuries as a result of tropical storms. Bangladesh is especially vulnerable to tropical cyclones, with around 718 000 deaths from them in the past 50 years. However, cyclone-related mortality in Bangladesh has declined by more than 100-fold over the past 40 years, from 500 000 deaths in 1970 to 4234 in 2007. The main factors responsible for these reduced fatalities and injuries are improved defensive measures, including early warning systems, cyclone shelters, evacuation plans, coastal embankments, reforestation schemes and increased awareness and communication. Although warning systems have been improved, evacuation before a cyclone remains a challenge, with major problems caused by illiteracy, lack of awareness and poor communication. Despite the potential risks of climate change and tropical storms, little empirical knowledge exists on how to develop effective strategies to reduce or mitigate the effects of cyclones. This paper summarizes the most recent data and outlines the strategy adopted in Bangladesh. It offers guidance on how similar strategies can be adopted by other countries vulnerable to tropical storms. Further research is needed to enable countries to limit the risks that cyclones present to public health. PMID:22423166

Risk factors for mortality during the 2002 landslides in Chuuk, Federated States of Micronesia.

PubMed

Sanchez, Carlos; Lee, Tze-San; Young, Stacy; Batts, Dahna; Benjamin, Jefferson; Malilay, Josephine

2009-10-01

This study examines health effects resulting from landslides in Chuuk during Tropical Storm Chata'an in July 2002, and suggests strategies to prevent future mortality. In August 2002, we conducted a cross-sectional survey to identify risk factors for mortality during landslides, which included 52 survivors and 40 surrogates for 43 decedents to identify risk factors for death. Findings suggest that 1) females had a higher mortality rate from this event than males, and 2) children aged 5-14 years had a 10-fold increase in mortality when compared with annual mortality rates from all causes. Awareness of landslides occurring elsewhere and knowledge of natural warning signs were significantly associated with lower risks of death; being outside during landslides was not associated with reduced mortality. In Chuuk, improving communication systems during tropical storms and increasing knowledge of natural warnings can reduce the risk for mortality during landslides.

Using the Moist Static Energy Budget to Understand Storm Track Shifts across a Range of Timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barpanda, P.; Shaw, T.

2017-12-01

Storm tracks shift meridionally in response to forcing across a range of time scales. Here we formulate a moist static energy (MSE) framework for storm track position and use it to understand storm track shifts in response to seasonal insolation, El Niño minus La Niña conditions, and direct (increased CO2 over land) and indirect (increased sea surface temperature) effects of increased CO2. Two methods (linearized Taylor series and imposed MSE flux divergence) are developed to quantify storm track shifts and decompose them into contributions from net energy (MSE input to the atmosphere minus atmospheric storage) and MSE flux divergence by the mean meridional circulation and stationary eddies. Net energy is not a dominant contribution across the time scales considered. The stationary eddy contribution dominates the storm-track shift in response to seasonal insolation, El Niño minus La Niña conditions, and CO2 direct effect in the Northern Hemisphere, whereas the mean meridional circulation contribution dominates the shift in response to CO2 indirect effect during northern winter and in the Southern Hemisphere during May and October. Overall, the MSE framework shows the seasonal storm-track shift in the Northern Hemisphere is connected to the stationary eddy MSE flux evolution. Furthermore, the equatorward storm-track shift during northern winter in response to El Niño minus La Niña conditions involves a different regime than the poleward shift in response to increased CO2 even though the tropical upper troposphere warms in both cases.

USGS Multi-Hazards Winter Storm Scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cox, D. A.; Jones, L. M.; Perry, S. C.

2008-12-01

The USGS began an inter-disciplinary effort, the Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP), in 2007 to demonstrate how hazards science can improve a community's resiliency to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages the user community in setting research goals and directs efforts towards research products that can be applied to loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. It detailed the realistic outcomes of a hypothetical, but plausible, magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California. Over 300 scientist and experts contributed to designing the earthquake and understanding the impacts of such a disaster, including the geotechnical, engineering, social, cultural, environmental, and economic consequences. The scenario advanced scientific understanding and exposed numerous vulnerabilities related to emergency response and lifeline continuity management. The ShakeOut Scenario was the centerpiece of the Nation's largest-ever emergency response exercise in November 2008, dubbed "The Great Southern California ShakeOut" (www.shakeout.org). USGS Multi-Hazards is now preparing for its next major public project, a Winter Storm Scenario. Like the earthquake scenario, experts will be brought together to examine in detail the possibility, cost and consequences of a winter storm disaster including floods, landslides, coastal erosion and inundation; debris flows; biologic consequences like extirpation of endangered species; physical damages like bridge scour, road closures, dam failure, property loss, and water system collapse. Consideration will be given to the vulnerabilities associated with a catastrophic disruption to the water supply to southern California; the resulting impacts on ground water pumping, seawater intrusion, water supply degradation, and land subsidence; and a detailed examination on climatic change forces that could exacerbate the problems. Similar to the ShakeOut Scenario, the Winter Storm Scenario is designing a large but scientifically plausible physical event followed by an expert analysis of the secondary hazards, and the physical, social, and economic consequences. Unlike the earthquake scenario, the winter storm event may occur over days, weeks, and possibly months, and the stakeholder community is broadening to include resource managers as well as local governments and the emergency and lifeline management communities. Developing plans for this Scenario will be presented at this session, and feedback will be welcomed.

Geostationary Lightning Mapper for GOES-R

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodman, Steven; Blakeslee, Richard; Koshak, William

2007-01-01

The Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) is a single channel, near-IR optical detector, used to detect, locate and measure total lightning activity over the full-disk as part of a 3-axis stabilized, geostationary weather satellite system. The next generation NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) series with a planned launch in 2014 will carry a GLM that will provide continuous day and night observations of lightning from the west coast of Africa (GOES-E) to New Zealand (GOES-W) when the constellation is fully operational. The mission objectives for the GLM are to 1) provide continuous, full-disk lightning measurements for storm warning and Nowcasting, 2) provide early warning of tornadic activity, and 3) accumulate a long-term database to track decadal changes of lightning. The GLM owes its heritage to the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor (1997-Present) and the Optical Transient Detector (1995-2000), which were developed for the Earth Observing System and have produced a combined 11 year data record of global lightning activity. Instrument formulation studies begun in January 2006 will be completed in March 2007, with implementation expected to begin in September 2007. Proxy total lightning data from the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite, airborne science missions (e.g., African Monsoon Multi-disciplinary Analysis, AMMA), and regional test beds (e.g, Lightning Mapping Arrays) are being used to develop the pre-launch algorithms and applications, and also improve our knowledge of thunderstorm initiation and evolution. Real time lightning mapping data now being provided to selected forecast offices will lead to improved understanding of the application of these data in the severe storm warning process and accelerate the development of the pre-launch algorithms and Nowcasting applications. Proxy data combined with MODIS and Meteosat Second Generation SEVERI observations will also lead to new applications (e.g., multi-sensor precipitation algorithms blending the GLM with the Advanced Baseline Imager, convective cloud initiation and identification, early warnings of lightning threat, storm tracking, and data assimilation).

High-Latitude Topside Ionospheric Vertical Electron Density Profile Changes in Response to Large Magnetic Storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Benson, Robert F.; Fainberg, Joseph; Osherovich, Vladimir A.; Truhlik, Vladimir; Wang, Yongli; Bilitza, Dieter; Fung, Shing F.

2016-01-01

Large magnetic-storm-induced changes were detected in high-latitude topside vertical electron density profiles Ne(h) in a database of profiles and digital topside ionograms, from the International Satellites for Ionospheric Studies (ISIS) program, that enabled Ne(h) profiles to be obtained in nearly the same region of space before, during, and after a major magnetic storm (Dst -100nT). Storms where Ne(h) profiles were available in the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere had better coverage of solar wind parameters than storms with available Ne(h) profiles in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere. Large Ne(h) changes were observed during all storms, with enhancements and depletions sometimes near a factor of 10 and 0.1, respectively, but with substantial differences in the responses in the two hemispheres. Large spatial andor temporal Ne(h) changes were often observed during Dst minimum and during the storm recovery phase. The storm-induced Ne(h) changes were the most pronounced and consistent in the Northern Hemisphere in that large enhancements were observed during winter nighttime and large depletions during winter and spring daytime. The limited available cases suggested that these Northern Hemisphere enhancements increased with increases of the time-shifted solar wind velocity v, magnetic field B, and with more negative values of the B components except for the highest common altitude (1100km) of the profiles. There was also some evidence suggesting that the Northern Hemisphere depletions were related to changes in the solar wind parameters. Southern Hemisphere storm-induced enhancements and depletions were typically considerably less with depletions observed during summer nighttime conditions and enhancements during summer daytime and fall nighttime conditions.

High-latitude topside ionospheric vertical electron density profile changes in response to large magnetic storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benson, Robert F.; Fainberg, Joseph; Osherovich, Vladimir A.; Truhlik, Vladimir; Wang, Yongli; Bilitza, Dieter; Fung, Shing F.

2016-05-01

Large magnetic-storm-induced changes were detected in high-latitude topside vertical electron density profiles Ne(h) in a database of profiles and digital topside ionograms, from the International Satellites for Ionospheric Studies (ISIS) program, that enabled Ne(h) profiles to be obtained in nearly the same region of space before, during, and after a major magnetic storm (Dst < -100 nT). Storms where Ne(h) profiles were available in the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere had better coverage of solar wind parameters than storms with available Ne(h) profiles in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere. Large Ne(h) changes were observed during all storms, with enhancements and depletions sometimes near a factor of 10 and 0.1, respectively, but with substantial differences in the responses in the two hemispheres. Large spatial and/or temporal Ne(h) changes were often observed during Dst minimum and during the storm recovery phase. The storm-induced Ne(h) changes were the most pronounced and consistent in the Northern Hemisphere in that large enhancements were observed during winter nighttime and large depletions during winter and spring daytime. The limited available cases suggested that these Northern Hemisphere enhancements increased with increases of the time-shifted solar wind velocity v, magnetic field B, and with more negative values of the B components except for the highest common altitude (1100 km) of the profiles. There was also some evidence suggesting that the Northern Hemisphere depletions were related to changes in the solar wind parameters. Southern Hemisphere storm-induced enhancements and depletions were typically considerably less with depletions observed during summer nighttime conditions and enhancements during summer daytime and fall nighttime conditions.

Ice damage in loblolly pine: understanding the factors that influence susceptibility

Treesearch

Doug P. Aubrey; Mark D. Coleman; David R. Coyle

2007-01-01

Winter ice storms frequently occur in the southeastern United States and can severely damage softwood plantations. In January 2004, a severe storm deposited approximately 2 cm of ice on an intensively managed 4-year-old loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) plantation in South Carolina. Existing irrigation and fertilization treatments presented an...

Multiple storm event impacts on epikarst storage and transport of organic soil amendments in South-Central Kentucky.

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The groundwater in agricultural karst areas is susceptible to contamination from organic soil amendments and pesticides. During major storm events of winter and spring 2011, dye traces were initiated using sulphorhodamine-B, fluorescein and eosine in a known groundwater recharge area where manure wa...

Northern Hemisphere winter storm track trends since 1959 derived from multiple reanalysis datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Edmund K. M.; Yau, Albert M. W.

2016-09-01

In this study, a comprehensive comparison of Northern Hemisphere winter storm track trend since 1959 derived from multiple reanalysis datasets and rawinsonde observations has been conducted. In addition, trends in terms of variance and cyclone track statistics have been compared. Previous studies, based largely on the National Center for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis (NNR), have suggested that both the Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks have significantly intensified between the 1950s and 1990s. Comparison with trends derived from rawinsonde observations suggest that the trends derived from NNR are significantly biased high, while those from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts 40-year Reanalysis and the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis are much less biased but still too high. Those from the two twentieth century reanalysis datasets are most consistent with observations but may exhibit slight biases of opposite signs. Between 1959 and 2010, Pacific storm track activity has likely increased by 10 % or more, while Atlantic storm track activity has likely increased by <10 %. Our analysis suggests that trends in Pacific and Atlantic basin wide storm track activity prior to the 1950s derived from the two twentieth century reanalysis datasets are unlikely to be reliable due to changes in density of surface observations. Nevertheless, these datasets may provide useful information on interannual variability, especially over the Atlantic.

NASA Sees Tropical Storm Bill Making Landfall in Texas

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-06-16

On June 15 at 19:15 UTC (3:15 p.m. EDT) the MODIS instrument aboard NASA's Aqua satellite captured a visible image of Tropical Storm Bill approaching Texas and Louisiana. Powerful thunderstorms circled the center in fragmented bands. At 11 a.m. CDT on June 16, a Tropical Storm Warning was in effect from Baffin Bay to High Island Texas as Bill was making landfall. The National Hurricane Center noted that Bill is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma and 2 to 4 inches over western Arkansas and southern Missouri, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches in eastern Texas. In eastern Texas and far western Louisiana today and tonight, isolated tornadoes are also possible, as with any landfalling tropical storm. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue into the evening in the warning area. Along the coasts, the combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide. The NHC noted that the Upper Texas coast could experience 2 to 4 feet, and the western Louisiana coast between 1 to 2 feet. At 10 a.m. CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bill was located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 96.4 West. Bill was moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 kph) and that general motion is expected to continue today. The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 997 millibars. Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 kph) with higher gusts. Unlike Carlos, Bill is not a compact storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. Between 9 and 10 a.m. CDT, an automated observing station at Port O'Connor also reported a sustained wind of 44 mph (70 kph) and a gust to 53 mph (85 kph). For updated forecasts, watches and warnings, visit the National Hurricane Center webpage at www.nhc.noaa.gov. For local forecasts and advisories, visit: www.weather.gov. Bill is forecast to continue moving inland and is expected to be a tropical depression by Wednesday, June 17, west of Dallas. The remnants of Bill are forecast to move into the Midwest later in the week. Credit: NASA/GSFC/Jeff Schmaltz/MODIS Land Rapid Response Team NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Enhancing national Daily Landslide Hazard Assessments through inter-agency collaboration; lessons learned from storm Desmond (UK)/Synne (Norway), Dec 2015.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boje, Søren; Devoli, Graziella; Sund, Monica; Freeborough, Katy; Dijkstra, Tom; Reeves, Helen; Banks, Vanessa

2016-04-01

The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) and the British Geological Survey (BGS) compile daily landslide hazard assessments (DLHA) in their respective countries. NVE DLHA has been operational since 2013 and provides national daily assessments based on quantitative thresholds related to daily hydro-meteorological forecasts coupled with qualitative expert analysis of these forecasts. The BGS DLHA has been operational since 2012 and this is predominantly based on expert evaluation of antecedent hydro-meteorological conditions and triggering rainfall across Great Britain (GB). In both cases, the hydro-meteorological evaluation is coupled with observations derived from proprietary datasets on landslide events and landslide potential in order to specify, and limit, the spatial extent of the potentially impacted area. However, the DLHA are strongly driven by hydro-meteorological forecasts. In December 2015, a large extra-tropical cyclone developed over the Atlantic and delivered record-breaking precipitation over parts of the UK and Norway. The meteorological services started naming these events to enhance public uptake and awareness and the storms were named as Desmond (the 4th large storm in 2015/16 in the UK) and Synne (the 5th storm in 2015 in Norway). Desmond arrived in earnest on the 5th of December and brought intense precipitation and strong winds over a 48-hour period. In Cumbria (NW-England) record precipitation was measured (341.4 mm in 24-hour at Honister Pass which is more than twice the monthly average), with 48-hour accumulations exceeding 400 mm. Synne arrived shortly after in Norway and was also characterised by excessive rainfall of 140 mm in 24-hour, 236 mm in 48-hour and 299 mm in 72-hour at Maudal, SW-Norway. Both organisations managed to issue appropriate advance warnings, operating individually. In Norway, warnings were issued some 2 days in advance with a yellow level communicated on Friday 4th and an orange warning the 5th and 6th December. Synne triggered at least 23 landslides, 5 slush flows and 8 snow avalanches. The storm caused also significant floods in the southern sector of the west coast of Norway. In the UK, the DLHA warning level was elevated to yellow on Friday 4th and maintained the following days. Desmond resulted circa 25 landslides that were reported in the media. In both countries, many events were recorded close to transport infrastructure, but the actual number of events is much greater than reported during the storm. The severe consequences of extensive, simultaneous flooding provided a focus for most media reports. Following the events a picture emerged of the wider landscape response through anecdotal photographic evidence and social media. Data gathering therefore continues to date. Even though the issuing of landslide warnings has seen a high rate of success, there are important lessons to be learned regarding the magnitude of landscape response to particular events. This study shows how extreme events can strike several countries at approximately the same time raising landslide forecasting beyond the local environment. Significant gains can be made through inter-agency, international collaboration in order to improve the quality of daily landslide hazard assessments and risk mitigation strategies.

CoCoRaHS: A Community Science Program Providing Valuable Precipitation Data to Guide Decision Making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, D. A.; Doesken, N.

2017-12-01

CoCoRaHS is an acronym for the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network. It is long-running, community-based network of volunteers working together to measure and map precipitation (rain, hail and snow). Precipitation is an ideal element for public engagement because it affects everyone, it is so variable in time and space and it impacts so many things. By using a standard precipitation gauge, stressing training and education, utilizing an interactive website, and having observations undergo quality assurance, the CoCoRaHS program provides high-quality data for natural resource, education and research applications. The program currently operates in all states, Canada and the Bahamas. It originated with the Colorado Climate Center at Colorado State University in 1998 due in part to the Fort Collins flood a year prior. Upwards of 12,000 observers submit observations each day. Observations meet federal guidelines and are archived at the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Information. Because of excellent spatial coverage, data quality, practical relevance, and accessibility, CoCoRaHS observations are used by a wide variety of organizations and individuals. The U.S. National Weather Service, hydrologists, emergency managers, city utilities (water supply, storm water), insurance adjusters, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, engineers, mosquito control commissions, ranchers and farmers, outdoor and recreation interests, teachers and students are just some examples of those who use CoCoRaHS data in making well-informed, meaningful decisions. Some examples of community applications and the science utility of CoCoRaHS observations include storm warnings, water supply and demand forecasts, disaster declarations (drought, winter storm, etc.), drought and food production assessments, calibration/validation of remote sensing, infrastructure evaluation and potential redesign (ice and snow loading, bridge, storm and sewer design), recreation planning, and environmental education. This presentation will demonstrate a growing trust in volunteered data and that the CoCoRaHS program succeeds in striking a balance between education, local interest, community service and service to science.

Partitioning of Metals Throughout a Winter Storm-Generated Fluid Mud Event, Atchafalaya Shelf, Louisiana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, F. R.; McKee, B. A.; Duncan, D. D.

2002-12-01

Particulate and dissolved phases of a suite of metals and radionuclides were analyzed in fluid mud samples collected during a time series. This time series was taken during the passage of a winter storm on the Atchafalaya Shelf off the coast of Louisiana. The shelf receives an estimated 30% of the flow of the Mississippi River from its distributary, the Atchafalaya River. This input contributes a high sediment load to the shelf. Frequent winter storms provide shear stress to resuspend sediments and form fluid mud. Samples of fluid mud and overlying water were collected every two hours for 56 hours. Meteorological data as well as turbidity measurements by OBS were collected throughout the study. Bottom sediments were also collected before and after the time series. Partitioning effects were investigated on Be7, Th234, and Pb210 by gamma spectroscopy. These effects were also studied on several redox-sensitive metals, including Fe, Mn, Mo, Te, Re, U, Al, Ti, and V by ICP-MS analysis. Preliminary results indicate a rapid establishment of reducing conditions in fluid mud immediately overlying the seabed. These conditions persist until the suspended sediments in the fluid mud settle, and the fluid mud dissipates. The recurrence of storm front passages and their subsequent fluid mud formation cause repeated cycling from oxic to suboxic conditions in these coastal bottom waters. This redox cycling could potentially alter the fates of redox-sensitive metals, especially those associated with metal oxide carrier phases.

Building regional early flood warning systems by AI techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, F. J.; Chang, L. C.; Amin, M. Z. B. M.

2017-12-01

Building early flood warning system is essential for the protection of the residents against flood hazards and make actions to mitigate the losses. This study implements AI technology for forecasting multi-step-ahead regional flood inundation maps during storm events. The methodology includes three major schemes: (1) configuring the self-organizing map (SOM) to categorize a large number of regional inundation maps into a meaningful topology; (2) building dynamic neural networks to forecast multi-step-ahead average inundated depths (AID); and (3) adjusting the weights of the selected neuron in the constructed SOM based on the forecasted AID to obtain real-time regional inundation maps. The proposed models are trained, and tested based on a large number of inundation data sets collected in regions with the most frequent and serious flooding in the river basin. The results appear that the SOM topological relationships between individual neurons and their neighbouring neurons are visible and clearly distinguishable, and the hybrid model can continuously provide multistep-ahead visible regional inundation maps with high resolution during storm events, which have relatively small RMSE values and high R2 as compared with numerical simulation data sets. The computing time is only few seconds, and thereby leads to real-time regional flood inundation forecasting and make early flood inundation warning system. We demonstrate that the proposed hybrid ANN-based model has a robust and reliable predictive ability and can be used for early warning to mitigate flood disasters.

Influence of prolonged Anomalies in North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature on Winter Windstorms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Höschel, Ines; Schuster, Mareike; Grieger, Jens; Ulbrich, Uwe

2016-04-01

The focus of this presentation is on decadal scale variations in the frequency and in the intensity of mid-latitude winter windstorms. Projections for the end of the next century are often beyond the time horizon of business, thus there is an increasing interest on decadal prediction, especially for infrastructural planning and in the insurance industry. One source of decadal predictability is the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV), a change in the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic, strongly linked to the meridional overturning circulation. Correlation patterns between annual AMV-indices and annual mean of geopotential height at 500 hPa in reanalysis data show an anti-correlation in the North Atlantic. That is, during AMV warm phases the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is more negative. Consequently, AMV should influence the characteristics of winter windstorms at multi-year scales. For the presented investigations a 10-member ensemble of 38-year-long idealized simulations with the atmosphere model ECHAM6 with lower boundary conditions, representing warm and cool phases of the AMV, is used. In the idealized simulations, the anti-correlation between AMV and NAO is well represented. For the identification of winter windstorms an objective wind tracking algorithm based on the exceedance of the local 98th percentile of 10m wind speed is applied. Storms under AMV-warm and AMV-cool conditions will be compared in terms of storm track density and probability distribution of storm characteristics.

Global and European climate impacts of a slowdown of the AMOC in a high resolution GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, L. C.; Kahana, R.; Graham, T.; Ringer, M. A.; Woollings, T.; Mecking, J. V.; Wood, R. A.

2015-12-01

The impacts of a hypothetical slowdown in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are assessed in a state-of-the-art global climate model (HadGEM3), with particular emphasis on Europe. This is the highest resolution coupled global climate model to be used to study the impacts of an AMOC slowdown so far. Many results found are consistent with previous studies and can be considered robust impacts from a large reduction or collapse of the AMOC. These include: widespread cooling throughout the North Atlantic and northern hemisphere in general; less precipitation in the northern hemisphere midlatitudes; large changes in precipitation in the tropics and a strengthening of the North Atlantic storm track. The focus on Europe, aided by the increase in resolution, has revealed previously undiscussed impacts, particularly those associated with changing atmospheric circulation patterns. Summer precipitation decreases (increases) in northern (southern) Europe and is associated with a negative summer North Atlantic Oscillation signal. Winter precipitation is also affected by the changing atmospheric circulation, with localised increases in precipitation associated with more winter storms and a strengthened winter storm track. Stronger westerly winds in winter increase the warming maritime effect while weaker westerlies in summer decrease the cooling maritime effect. In the absence of these circulation changes the cooling over Europe's landmass would be even larger in both seasons. The general cooling and atmospheric circulation changes result in weaker peak river flows and vegetation productivity, which may raise issues of water availability and crop production.

Hawaiian Winter Workshop Proceedings of Parameterization of Small-Scale Processes Held in Manoa, Hawaii on 17-20 January 1989

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-01-01

England while waiting for an outbreak of cold air (Larson, 1988). Even before the arrival of the storm trailing the cold air behind it, both shear and...and simulation of storm -induced mixed-layer deepening. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 8. 582-599. 217 Riley, J.J., and R.W. Metcalf: 1987. Direct numerical...the severe downslope wind storm which occurs in the lee of major mountain barriers (Lilly and Kennedy, 1973: Lilly. 1978) under suitable atmospheric

Probable influence of early Carboniferous (Tournaisian-early Visean) geography on the development of Waulsortian and Waulsortian-like mounds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, David T., Jr.

1990-07-01

All of the known Tournaisian-early Visean (ca. 360-348 Ma) age carbonate mud mounds (Waulsortian and Waulsortian-like mounds) developed in low paleolatitudes on the southern shelf margin of Laurussia and in the Laurussian interior seaway. The Tournaisian-early Visean geography probably prevented hurricanes, tropical storms, and winter storms from crossing the shelf margin or interior seaway where these mounds developed. Implications of the lack of storm energy on mound development are discussed.

Physical and Chemical Properties of Seasonal Snow and the Impacts on Albedo in New Hampshire, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adolph, A. C.; Albert, M. R.; Amante, J.; Dibb, J. E.

2014-12-01

Snow albedo is critical to surface energy budgets and thus to the timing of mid-winter and vernal melt events in seasonal snow packs. Timing of these melt events is important in predicting flooding, understanding plant and animal phenology, and the availability of winter recreational activity. The state of New Hampshire experiences large spatial and temporal variability in snow albedo as a result of differences in meteorological conditions, physical snow structure, and chemical impurities in the snow, particularly highly absorptive black carbon (BC) and dust particles. This work focuses on the winters of 2012-2013 and 2013-2014, comparing three intensive study sites. Data collected at these sites include sub-hourly meteorological data, near daily measurements of snow depth, snow density, surface IR temperature, specific surface area (SSA) from contact spectroscopy, and spectrally resolved snow albedo using an ASD FieldSpec4 throughout the winter season. Additionally, snow samples were analyzed for black carbon content and other chemical impurities including Cl-, NO3-, NH4 , K , Na , Mg2+ , Ca2+ and SO42-. For each storm event at the three intensive sites, moisture sources and paths were determined using HYPLIT back trajectory modeling to determine potential sources of black carbon and other impurities in the snow. Storms with terrestrial-based paths across the US Midwest and Canada resulted in higher BC content than storms with ocean-based paths and sources. In addition to the variable storm path between sites and between years, the second year of study was on average 2.5°C colder than the first year, impacting duration of snow cover at each site and the SSA of surface snow which is sensitive to frequency of snow events and relies on cold temperatures to reduce grain metamorphism. Combining an understanding of storm frequency and path with physical and chemical attributes of the snow allows us to investigate snow albedo sensitivities with implications for understanding the impacts of future climate change on snow albedo in the Northeastern US.

NOAA predicts active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season

Science.gov Websites

procedure for post-tropical cyclones. In July, NOAA plans to bring online a new supercomputer that will run hurricane warnings to remain in effect, or to be newly issued, for storms like Sandy that have become post

The Online Tornado FAQ (by Roger Edwards, SPC)

Science.gov Websites

predicting it. For many, this dates back into childhood--a first-hand encounter with violent storms, images happens. This can be a negative number in reality, although NWS sets it to zero in practice for warnings

Chapter 5: Quality assurance/quality control in stormwater sampling

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Sampling the quality of stormwater presents unique challenges because stormwater flow is relatively short-lived with drastic variability. Furthermore, storm events often occur with little advance warning, outside conventional work hours, and under adverse weather conditions. Therefore, most stormwat...

Integration of the Total Lightning Jump Algorithm into Current Operational Warning Environment Conceptual Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shultz, Christopher J.; Carey, Lawrence D.; Schultz, Elise V.; Stano, Geoffrey T.; Blakeslee, Richard J.; Goodman, Steven J.

2014-01-01

The presence and rates of total lightning are both correlated to and physically dependent upon storm updraft strength, mixed phase precipitation volume and the size of the charging zone. The updraft modulates the ingredients necessary for electrification within a thunderstorm, while the updraft also plays a critical role in the development of severe and hazardous weather. Therefore utilizing this relationship, the monitoring of lightning rates and jumps provides an additional piece of information on the evolution of a thunderstorm, more often than not, at higher temporal resolution than current operational radar systems. This correlation is the basis for the total lightning jump algorithm that has been developed in recent years. Currently, the lightning jump algorithm is being tested in two separate but important efforts. Schultz et al. (2014; AMS 10th Satellite Symposium) is exploring the transition of the algorithm from its research based formulation to a fully objective algorithm that includes storm tracking, Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) Proxy data and the lightning jump algorithm. Chronis et al. (2014; this conference) provides context for the transition to current operational forecasting using lightning mapping array based products. However, what remains is an end to end physical and dynamical basis for relating lightning rates to severe storm manifestation, so the forecaster has a reason beyond simple correlation to utilize the lightning jump algorithm within their severe storm conceptual models. Therefore, the physical basis for the lightning jump algorithm in relation to severe storm dynamics and microphysics is a key component that must be further explored. Many radar studies have examined flash rates and their relation to updraft strength, updraft volume, precipitation-sized ice mass, etc.; however, relation specifically to lightning jumps is fragmented within the literature. Thus the goal of this study is to use multiple Doppler techniques to resolve the physical and dynamical storm characteristics specifically around the time of the lightning jump. This information will help forecasters anticipate lightning jump occurrence, or even be of use to determine future characteristics of a given storm (e.g., development of a mesocyclone, downdraft, or hail signature on radar), providing additional lead time/confidence in the severe storm warning paradigm.

Dust Storm Feature Identification and Tracking from 4D Simulation Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, M.; Yang, C. P.

2016-12-01

Dust storms cause significant damage to health, property and the environment worldwide every year. To help mitigate the damage, dust forecasting models simulate and predict upcoming dust events, providing valuable information to scientists, decision makers, and the public. Normally, the model simulations are conducted in four-dimensions (i.e., latitude, longitude, elevation and time) and represent three-dimensional (3D), spatial heterogeneous features of the storm and its evolution over space and time. This research investigates and proposes an automatic multi-threshold, region-growing based identification algorithm to identify critical dust storm features, and track the evolution process of dust storm events through space and time. In addition, a spatiotemporal data model is proposed, which can support the characterization and representation of dust storm events and their dynamic patterns. Quantitative and qualitative evaluations for the algorithm are conducted to test the sensitivity, and capability of identify and track dust storm events. This study has the potential to assist a better early warning system for decision-makers and the public, thus making hazard mitigation plans more effective.

Freeze-thaw processes and intense winter rainfall: The one-two punch for high streambank legacy sediment and nutrient loads from Mid-Atlantic watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inamdar, S. P.; Johnson, E. R.; Rowland, R. D.; Walter, R. C.; Merritts, D.

2017-12-01

Historic and contemporary anthropogenic soil erosion combined with early-American milldams resulted in large deposits of legacy sediments in the valley bottoms of Piedmont watersheds of the eastern US. Breaching of milldams subsequently yielded highly incised streams with exposed vertical streambanks that are vulnerable to erosion. Streambank erosion is attributed to fluvial scouring, freeze-thaw processes and mass wasting. While streambanks represent a large reservoir of fine sediments and nutrients, there is considerable uncertainty about the contribution of these sources to watershed nonpoint source pollution. Using high-frequency hydrologic, sediment, and turbidity data we show that freeze-thaw events followed by intense winter rainstorms can export unusually high concentrations of suspended sediment and particulate nutrients from watersheds. Data from a 12 ha forested, Piedmont, stream following an intense rain event (54 mm) on February 2016 yielded suspended sediment and particulate nutrient (organic carbon and nitrogen) concentrations and exports that exceeded those from tropical storms Irene, Lee, and Sandy that had much greater rainfall and discharge amounts, but which occurred later in the year. A similar response was also observed with regards to turbidity data for USGS stream monitoring locations at Brandywine Creek (813 km2) and White Clay Creek (153 km2). We hypothesize that much of the sediment export associated with winter storms is likely due to erosion of streambank sediments and was driven by the coupled occurrence of freeze-thaw conditions and intense rainfall events. We propose that freeze-thaw erosion represents an important and underappreciated mechanism in streams that "recharges" the sediment supply, which then is available for flushing by moderate to large storms. Future climate projections indicate increased intensification of storm events and increased variability of winter temperatures. Freeze-thaw cycles coupled with winter rain events could increase erosion and transport of streambank sediments with detrimental consequences for water quality and health of downstream aquatic ecosystems. This study underscores the need to better understand the mechanisms of legacy sediment erosion and transport along with appropriate restoration strategies.

Auroras observations of the MAIN in Apatity during 2014/15 winter season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guineva, V.; Despirak, I.; Kozelov, B.

2017-08-01

In this work we review substorms, originated during the 2014/2015 winter season. Observations of the Multiscale Aurora Imaging Network (MAIN) in Apatity have been used. Solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters were estimated by the 1-min sampled OMNI data base from CDAWeb (http://cdaweb.gsfc.nasa.gov/cdaweb/ istp_public/). Auroral disturbances were verified by the 10-s sampled data of IMAGE magnetometers and by data of the all-sky camera at Apatity. Subject of the review were the peculiarities in the development of substorms occurred during different geomagnetic conditions. The behavior of the substorms developed in non-storm time and during different phases of geomagnetic storms was discussed.

Extratropical Cyclone over the United Kingdom

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-02-14

Soggy winters are not unusual in the United Kingdom, but this winter has been in a category of its own. UK Met Office meteorologists had just declared January 2014 the wettest month on record for parts of southern Britain when another series of storms swept across the area in early February. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this image of an extratropical cyclone bearing down on the United Kingdom on February 12, 2014. Mature extratropical cyclones often feature comma-shaped cloud patterns that are the product of “conveyor belt” circulation. While heavy precipitation is often present near the low-pressure head of the comma, a slot of dry air usually trails the west side of the tail. The storm brought the United Kingdom yet another round of heavy rain, as well as winds that exceeded 160 kilometers (100 miles) per hour. It snarled traffic, disrupted train service, and caused power outages for more than 700,000 people. The also exacerbated severe flooding in southern England. More than 5,800 homes have flooded since early December, according to media reports. Authorities have deployed thousands of soldiers to towns and cities in southern England to help with flood recovery. Meanwhile, the Met Office was forecasting more of the same. They warned that another system bearing heavy rain and winds was lining up to push into the United Kingdom from the southeast on Friday morning. NASA Earth Observatory image by Jesse Allen, using data from the Land Atmosphere Near real-time Capability for EOS (LANCE). Caption by Adam Voiland. More info: earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=83127 Instrument: Terra - MODIS Credit: NASA Earth Observatory NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Observed near-surface flows under all tropical cyclone intensity levels using drifters in the northwestern Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Yu-Chia; Chen, Guan-Yu; Tseng, Ruo-Shan; Centurioni, Luca R.; Chu, Peter C.

2013-05-01

Data from drifters of the surface velocity program and tropical cyclones (TCs) of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center during 1985-2009 were analyzed to demonstrate strong currents under various storm intensities such as category-4 to -5, category-2 to -3, and tropical storm to category-1 TCs in the northwestern Pacific. Current speeds over 2.0 m s-1 are observed under major TCs with the strongest mean currents to the right of the storm track. This study provides the characterization of the near-surface velocity response to all recorded TCs, and agrees roughly with Geisler's theory (1970). Our observations also verify earlier modeling results of Price (1983).

Total Lightning Characteristics with Respect to Radar-Derived Mesocyclone Strength

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stough, Sarah M.; Carey, Lawrence D.; Schultz, Christopher J.

2015-01-01

Recent work investigating the microphysical and kinematic relationship between a storm's updraft, its total lightning production, and manifestations of severe weather has resulted in development of tools for improved nowcasting of storm intensity. The total lightning jump algorithm, which identifies rapid increases in total lightning flash rate that often precede severe events, has shown particular potential to benefit warning operations. Maximizing this capability of total lightning and its operational implementation via the lightning jump may best be done through its fusion with radar and radar-derived intensity metrics. Identification of a mesocyclone, or quasi-steady rotating updraft, in Doppler velocity is the predominant radar-inferred early indicator of severe potential in a convective storm. Fused lightning-radar tools that capitalize on the most robust intensity indicators would allow enhanced situational awareness for increased warning confidence. A foundational step toward such tools comes from a better understanding of the updraft-centric relationship between intensification of total lightning production and mesocyclone development and strength. The work presented here utilizes a sample of supercell case studies representing a spectrum of severity. These storms are analyzed with respect to total lightning flash rate and the lightning jump alongside mesocyclone strength derived objectively from the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) Mesocyclone Detection Algorithm (MDA) and maximum azimuthal shear through a layer. Early results indicate that temporal similarities exist in the trends between total lightning flash rate and low- to mid-level rotation in supercells. Other characteristics such as polarimetric signatures of rotation, flash size, and cloud-to-ground flash ratio are explored for added insight into the significance of these trends with respect to the updraft and related processes of severe weather production.

ISS Passes over Hurricane_Irma_GMT248-1510

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-09-05

The International Space Station’s external cameras captured a dramatic view of Hurricane Irma as it moved across the Atlantic Ocean Sept. 5. The National Hurricane Center had recently upgraded Irma to a Category 5 storm with hurricane warnings issued across the Caribbean.

Legal immigrants: invasion of alien microbial communities during winter occurring desert dust storms.

PubMed

Weil, Tobias; De Filippo, Carlotta; Albanese, Davide; Donati, Claudio; Pindo, Massimo; Pavarini, Lorenzo; Carotenuto, Federico; Pasqui, Massimiliano; Poto, Luisa; Gabrieli, Jacopo; Barbante, Carlo; Sattler, Birgit; Cavalieri, Duccio; Miglietta, Franco

2017-03-10

A critical aspect regarding the global dispersion of pathogenic microorganisms is associated with atmospheric movement of soil particles. Especially, desert dust storms can transport alien microorganisms over continental scales and can deposit them in sensitive sink habitats. In winter 2014, the largest ever recorded Saharan dust event in Italy was efficiently deposited on the Dolomite Alps and was sealed between dust-free snow. This provided us the unique opportunity to overcome difficulties in separating dust associated from "domestic" microbes and thus, to determine with high precision microorganisms transported exclusively by desert dust. Our metagenomic analysis revealed that sandstorms can move not only fractions but rather large parts of entire microbial communities far away from their area of origin and that this microbiota contains several of the most stress-resistant organisms on Earth, including highly destructive fungal and bacterial pathogens. In particular, we provide first evidence that winter-occurring dust depositions can favor a rapid microbial contamination of sensitive sink habitats after snowmelt. Airborne microbial depositions accompanying extreme meteorological events represent a realistic threat for ecosystem and public health. Therefore, monitoring the spread and persistence of storm-travelling alien microbes is a priority while considering future trajectories of climatic anomalies as well as anthropogenically driven changes in land use in the source regions.

National Weather Service

MedlinePlus

... Data SAFETY Floods Tsunami Beach Hazards Wildfire Cold Tornadoes Fog Air Quality Heat Hurricanes Lightning Safe Boating ... Winter Weather Forecasts River Flooding Latest Warnings Thunderstorm/Tornado Outlook Hurricanes Fire Weather Outlooks UV Alerts Drought ...

Comparison Between GOES-12 Overshooting-Top Detections, WSR-88D Radar Reflectivity, and Severe Storm Reports

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dworak, Richard; Bedka, Kristopher; Brunner, Jason; Feltz, Wayne

2012-01-01

Studies have found that convective storms with overshooting-top (OT) signatures in weather satellite imagery are often associated with hazardous weather, such as heavy rainfall, tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. An objective satellite-based OT detection product has been developed using 11-micrometer infrared window (IRW) channel brightness temperatures (BTs) for the upcoming R series of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) Advanced Baseline Imager. In this study, this method is applied to GOES-12 IRW data and the OT detections are compared with radar data, severe storm reports, and severe weather warnings over the eastern United States. The goals of this study are to 1) improve forecaster understanding of satellite OT signatures relative to commonly available radar products, 2) assess OT detection product accuracy, and 3) evaluate the utility of an OT detection product for diagnosing hazardous convective storms. The coevolution of radar-derived products and satellite OT signatures indicates that an OT often corresponds with the highest radar echo top and reflectivity maximum aloft. Validation of OT detections relative to composite reflectivity indicates an algorithm false-alarm ratio of 16%, with OTs within the coldest IRW BT range (less than 200 K) being the most accurate. A significant IRW BT minimum typically present with an OT is more often associated with heavy precipitation than a region with a spatially uniform BT. Severe weather was often associated with OT detections during the warm season (April September) and over the southern United States. The severe weather to OT relationship increased by 15% when GOES operated in rapid-scan mode, showing the importance of high temporal resolution for observing and detecting rapidly evolving cloud-top features. Comparison of the earliest OT detection associated with a severe weather report showed that 75% of the cases occur before severe weather and that 42% of collocated severe weather reports had either an OT detected before a severe weather warning or no warning issued at all. The relationships between satellite OT signatures, severe weather, and heavy rainfall shown in this paper suggest that 1) when an OT is detected, the particular storm is likely producing heavy rainfall and/or possibly severe weather; 2) an objective OT detection product can be used to increase situational awareness and forecaster confidence that a given storm is severe; and 3) this product may be particularly useful in regions with insufficient radar coverage.

Comparing reactions to two severe tornadoes in one Oklahoma community.

PubMed

Comstock, R Dawn; Mallonee, Sue

2005-09-01

The authors compared the effect of the 3 May 1999 F5 and 8 May 2003 F3 tornadoes on the community of Moore, Oklahoma, by canvassing damaged areas after both tornadoes and surveying residents. Significantly more 1999 than 2003 residents reported property damage and injuries. Television and tornado sirens were the most common warnings each year, however, more 1999 residents received and responded to television warnings. Importantly, storm shelters were used more frequently in 2003. Fifty-one per cent of residents who experienced both tornadoes took the same amount of protective action in 2003 as they had in 1999; 22% took less; and 27% took more. Residents who took less action said that the reason for doing so was inadequate warning and shelter. First-hand experience of tornadoes prompts people to heed warnings when adequate notification is received and to take effective protective action when adequate shelter is available.

Early density management of longleaf pine reduces susceptibility to ice storm damage

Treesearch

Timothy B. Harrington; Thaddeus A. Harrington

2016-01-01

The Pax winter storm of February 2014 caused widespread damage to forest stands throughout the southeastern U.S. In a long-term study of savanna plant community restoration at the Savannah River Site, Aiken, SC, precommercial thinning (PCT) of 8- to 11-year-old plantations of longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) in 1994 reduced...

Effect high intensity storms on soil slippage on mountainous watersheds in Southern California

Treesearch

R. M. Rice; G. T. Foggin

1971-01-01

The conversion of brush areas to grassland increased soil slip erosion on mountainous watersheds in southern California during the intense winter storms of 1969. The incidence of soil slippage, site factors affecting slope stability, and amount of debris generated by slippage were investigated for sample brush and grass areas in the San Dimas Experimental Forest. Soil...

Seasonal Variations in Survival of Indicator Bacteria in Soil and Their Contribution to Storm-water Pollution

PubMed Central

Van Donsel, Dale J.; Geldreich, Edwin E.; Clarke, Norman A.

1967-01-01

Survival of a fecal coliform (Escherichia coli) and a fecal streptococcus (Streptococcus faecalis var. liquifaciens) was studied through several years at shaded and exposed outdoor soil plots. Death rates for both organisms were calculated for the different seasons at both sites. The 90% reduction times for the fecal coliform ranged from 3.3 days in summer to 13.4 days in autumn. For the fecal streptococcus, 90% reduction times were from 2.7 days in summer to 20.1 days in winter. During summer, the fecal coliform survived slightly longer than the fecal streptococcus; during autumn, survival was the same; and in spring and winter the fecal streptococcus survived much longer than the fecal coliform. Both organisms were isolated from storm-water runoff collected below a sampling site when counts were sufficiently high in soil. Isolation was more frequent during prolonged rains, lasting up to 10 days, than during short rain storms. There was evidence of aftergrowth of nonfecal coliforms in the soil as a result of temperature and rainfall variations. Such aftergrowth may contribute to variations in bacterial count of storm-water runoff which have no relation to the sanitary history of the drainage area. PMID:16349746

WPC Winter Weather Forecasts

Science.gov Websites

Summaries Heat Index Tropical Products Daily Weather Map GIS Products Current Watches/ Warnings Satellite and Radar Imagery GOES-East Satellite GOES-West Satellite National Radar Product Archive WPC

Effect of pellet-cladding interaction (PCI) and degradation mechanisms on spent nuclear fuel rod mechanical performance during transportation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, Brittany Ann

Winter storms can affect millions of people, with impacts such as disruptions to transportation, hazards to human health, reduction in retail sales, and structural damage. Blizzard forecasts for Alberta Clippers can be a particular challenge in the Northern Plains, as these systems typically depart from the Canadian Rockies, intensify, and impact the Northern Plains all within 24 hours. The purpose of this study is to determine whether probabilistic forecasts derived from a local physics-based ensemble can improve specific aspects of winter storm forecasts for three Alberta Clipper cases. Verification is performed on the ensemble members and ensemble mean with a focus on quantifying uncertainty in the storm track, two-meter winds, and precipitation using the MERRA and NOHRSC SNODAS datasets. This study finds that addition improvements are needed to proceed with operational use of the ensemble blizzard products, but the use of a proxy for blizzard conditions yields promising results.

Pesticide transport in the San Joaquin River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dubrovsky, N.M.; Kratzer, C.R.; Panshin, S.Y.; Gronberg, J.A.M.; Kuivila, K.M.

2000-01-01

Pesticide occurrence and concentrations were evaluated in the San Joaquin River Basin to determine potential sources and mode of transport. Land use in the basin is mainly agricultural. Spatial variations in pesticide occurrence were evaluated in relation to pesticide application and cropping patterns in three contrasting subbasins and at the mouth of the basin. Temporal variability in pesticide occurrence was evaluated by fixed interval sampling and by sampling across the Hydrograph during winter storms. Four herbicides (simazine, metolachlor, dacthal, and EPTC) and two insecticides (diazinon and chlorpyrifos) were detected in more than 50 percent of the samples. Temporal, and to a lesser extent spatial, variation in pesticide occurrence is usually consistent with pesticide application and cropping patterns. Diazinon concentrations changed rapidly during winter storms, and both eastern and western tributaries contributed diazinon to the San Joaquin River at concentrations toxic to the water flea Ceriodaphnia dubia at different times during the hydrograph. During these storms, toxic concentrations resulted from the transport of only a very small portion of the applied diazinon.

New technology and tool prepared for communication against storm surges.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Letkiewicz, Beata

2010-05-01

The aim of the presentation is description of the new technology and tool prepared for communication, information and issue of warnings against storm surges. The Maritime Branch of the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management is responsible for preparing the forecast as warning, where the end users are Government Officials and Public. The Maritime Branch carry out the project "Strengthening the administrative capacity in order to improve the management of Polish coastal zone environment" (supported by a grant from Norway through the Norwegian Financial Mechanism). The expected final result of the project is web site www.baltyk.pogodynka.pl. One of the activities of the project is - set up of information website www.baltyk.pogodynka.pl, giving public access to the complied data. Information on web site: - meta data - marine data (on-line measurement: sea level, water temperature, salinity, oxygen concentration); - data bases of mathematical model outputs - forecast data (sea level, currents); - ice conditions of the Baltic Sea, - instructions, information materials with information of polish coastal zone. The aim of set up of the portal is development of communication between users of the system, exchange of the knowledge of marine environment and natural hazards such as storm surges, improving the ability of the region in the scope of the data management about the sea environment and the coastal zone.

Evaluation of Loss Due to Storm Surge Disasters in China Based on Econometric Model Groups.

PubMed

Jin, Xue; Shi, Xiaoxia; Gao, Jintian; Xu, Tongbin; Yin, Kedong

2018-03-27

Storm surge has become an important factor restricting the economic and social development of China's coastal regions. In order to improve the scientific judgment of future storm surge damage, a method of model groups is proposed to refine the evaluation of the loss due to storm surges. Due to the relative dispersion and poor regularity of the natural property data (login center air pressure, maximum wind speed, maximum storm water, super warning water level, etc.), storm surge disaster is divided based on eight kinds of storm surge disaster grade division methods combined with storm surge water, hypervigilance tide level, and disaster loss. The storm surge disaster loss measurement model groups consist of eight equations, and six major modules are constructed: storm surge disaster in agricultural loss, fishery loss, human resource loss, engineering facility loss, living facility loss, and direct economic loss. Finally, the support vector machine (SVM) model is used to evaluate the loss and the intra-sample prediction. It is indicated that the equations of the model groups can reflect in detail the relationship between the damage of storm surges and other related variables. Based on a comparison of the original value and the predicted value error, the model groups pass the test, providing scientific support and a decision basis for the early layout of disaster prevention and mitigation.

Evaluation of Loss Due to Storm Surge Disasters in China Based on Econometric Model Groups

PubMed Central

Shi, Xiaoxia; Xu, Tongbin; Yin, Kedong

2018-01-01

Storm surge has become an important factor restricting the economic and social development of China’s coastal regions. In order to improve the scientific judgment of future storm surge damage, a method of model groups is proposed to refine the evaluation of the loss due to storm surges. Due to the relative dispersion and poor regularity of the natural property data (login center air pressure, maximum wind speed, maximum storm water, super warning water level, etc.), storm surge disaster is divided based on eight kinds of storm surge disaster grade division methods combined with storm surge water, hypervigilance tide level, and disaster loss. The storm surge disaster loss measurement model groups consist of eight equations, and six major modules are constructed: storm surge disaster in agricultural loss, fishery loss, human resource loss, engineering facility loss, living facility loss, and direct economic loss. Finally, the support vector machine (SVM) model is used to evaluate the loss and the intra-sample prediction. It is indicated that the equations of the model groups can reflect in detail the relationship between the damage of storm surges and other related variables. Based on a comparison of the original value and the predicted value error, the model groups pass the test, providing scientific support and a decision basis for the early layout of disaster prevention and mitigation. PMID:29584628

Major winter and nonwinter floods in selected basins in New York and Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langbein, Walter Basil

1947-01-01

The scientific design of flood-control works is based on an evaluation of the hydrologic factors basic to flood events, particularly how rainfall and snow runoff, soil conditions, and channel influences can combine to produce greater or lesser floods. For this purpose an analysis of the pertinent hydrologic data is needed. The methods of analysis adopted should conform as closely as possible to those already in use and must be adapted to the quality of the available information. Maximum floods in 8 basins in New York and Pennsylvania during the winter and nonwinter months were studied, a total of 21 floods. The most outstanding winter flood of record in the North Atlantic region was that of March 1936. Rainfall plus snow melt in the basins studied ranged between 3.04 and 6.87 inches, and associated volumes of direct runoff from 1.88 to 5.63 inches. Winter floods have a common characteristic in their relation to freezing temperature. The antecedent periods, representing a period of snow accumulation and frost penetration, are below freezing, and the flood itself is contemporaneous with a period of above-freezing temperatures, usually associated with rain, during which the previously accumulated snow is melted. A second common characteristic of major winter floods is their tendency to be associated with widespread causal meteorologic conditions. There was a more complete conversion of rainfall and snow melt into runoff during the winter storms studied than during the wettest nonwinter flood. Snow melt during winter floods ranged from 0.04 to 0.07 inch per degree-day above 32° F. The depth of mean areal rainfall produced by the nonwinter storms studied ranged from 3.05 to 4.96 inches. The maximum 24-hour quantity at single stations was 14 inches, which was measured during the storm of July 1935 in New York. The volume of direct runoff ranged between 1.39 and 3.41 inches. The portion of rainfall that was converted into runoff varied in accordance with the rate of antecedent base flow, expressed in second-feet per square mile, and emphasized the influence of antecedent conditions. The average volume of direct runoff during winter floods was 4.24 inches, and the average during nonwinter floods was 2.44 inches. The latter, however, were more concentrated as to time, tending to compensate for large volume of runoff in winter, so that the crest rates of direct runoff averaged 0.056 inches per hour during the winter and 0.051 inches during the nonwinter period.

Predictability and possible earlier awareness of extreme precipitation across Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lavers, David; Pappenberger, Florian; Richardson, David; Zsoter, Ervin

2017-04-01

Extreme hydrological events can cause large socioeconomic damages in Europe. In winter, a large proportion of these flood episodes are associated with atmospheric rivers, a region of intense water vapour transport within the warm sector of extratropical cyclones. When preparing for such extreme events, forecasts of precipitation from numerical weather prediction models or river discharge forecasts from hydrological models are generally used. Given the strong link between water vapour transport (integrated vapour transport IVT) and heavy precipitation, it is possible that IVT could be used to warn of extreme events. Furthermore, as IVT is located in extratropical cyclones, it is hypothesized to be a more predictable variable due to its link with synoptic-scale atmospheric dynamics. In this research, we firstly provide an overview of the predictability of IVT and precipitation forecasts, and secondly introduce and evaluate the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) for IVT. The EFI is a tool that has been developed to evaluate how ensemble forecasts differ from the model climate, thus revealing the extremeness of the forecast. The ability of the IVT EFI to capture extreme precipitation across Europe during winter 2013/14, 2014/15, and 2015/16 is presented. The results show that the IVT EFI is more capable than the precipitation EFI of identifying extreme precipitation in forecast week 2 during forecasts initialized in a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase. However, the precipitation EFI is superior during the negative NAO phase and at shorter lead times. An IVT EFI example is shown for storm Desmond in December 2015 highlighting its potential to identify upcoming hydrometeorological extremes.

Emerging European winter precipitation pattern linked to atmospheric circulation changes over the North Atlantic region in recent decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; Seo, Hyodae; Kwon, Young-Oh; Parfitt, Rhys; Brands, Swen; Joyce, Terrence M.

2017-08-01

Dominant European winter precipitation patterns over the past century, along with their associated extratropical North Atlantic circulation changes, are evaluated using cluster analysis. Contrary to the four regimes traditionally identified based on daily wintertime atmospheric circulation patterns, five distinct seasonal precipitation regimes are detected here. Recurrent precipitation patterns in each regime are linked to changes in atmospheric blocking, storm track, and sea surface temperatures across the North Atlantic region. Multidecadal variability in the frequency of the precipitation patterns reveals more (fewer) winters with wet conditions in northern (southern) Europe in recent decades and an emerging distinct pattern of enhanced wintertime precipitation over the northern British Isles. This pattern has become unusually common since the 1980s and is associated with changes in moisture transport and more frequent atmospheric river events. The observed precipitation changes post-1950 coincide with changes in storm track activity over the central/eastern North Atlantic toward the northern British Isles.

WPC Excessive Rainfall and Winter Weather Forecasts

Science.gov Websites

Summaries Heat Index Tropical Products Daily Weather Map GIS Products Current Watches/ Warnings Satellite and Radar Imagery GOES-East Satellite GOES-West Satellite National Radar Product Archive WPC

Winter Weather Frequently Asked Questions

MedlinePlus

... Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ... PSAs for Disasters Resources for Emergency Health Professionals Social Media Health and Safety Concerns for All Disasters Animals ...

Winter Weather: Outdoor Safety

MedlinePlus

... Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ... PSAs for Disasters Resources for Emergency Health Professionals Social Media Health and Safety Concerns for All Disasters Animals ...

Simulating Geomagnetically Induced Currents in the Irish Power Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, A. G.; Blake, S. P.; Gallagher, P.; McCauley, J.; Hogg, C.; Beggan, C.; Thomson, A. W. P.; Kelly, G.; Walsh, S.

2014-12-01

Geomagnetic storms are known to cause geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) which can damage or destroy transformers on power grids. Previous studies have examined the vulnerability of power networks in countries such as the UK, New Zealand, Canada and South Africa. Here we describe the application of a British Geological Survey (BGS) thin-sheet conductivity model to compute the geo-electric field from the variation of the magnetic field, in order to better quantify the risk of space weather to Ireland's power network. This was achieved using DIAS magnetotelluric data from across Ireland. As part of a near-real-time warning package for Eirgrid (who oversee Ireland's transmission network), severe storm events such as the Halloween 2003 storm and the corresponding GIC flows at transformers are simulated.

The medical impact of tornadoes in North America.

PubMed

Bohonos, J J; Hogan, D E

1999-01-01

North America suffers some of the most severe tornado disasters of any location on the planet. Significant injury and economic impact may result from these storms, particularly in rural areas. Tornadic storms present unique problems for prehospital and Emergency Department personnel. Soft tissue injuries seen after tornadoes are contaminated with polymicrobial flora and may require delayed primary closure. Fractures are a frequent cause of hospital admission and head injury is a frequent cause of death. Advanced warning and proper sheltering actions by a population are the most significant factors in reducing morbidity and mortality. This article reviews the pertinent literature on the medical impact of tornadoes and details the mechanisms of injury, nature of injuries, pre-hospital and ED planning points associated with tornadic storms.

Storm rainfall conditions for floods and debris flows from recently burned areas in southwestern Colorado and southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cannon, S.H.; Gartner, J.E.; Wilson, R.C.; Bowers, J.C.; Laber, J.L.

2008-01-01

Debris flows generated during rain storms on recently burned areas have destroyed lives and property throughout the Western U.S. Field evidence indicate that unlike landslide-triggered debris flows, these events have no identifiable initiation source and can occur with little or no antecedent moisture. Using rain gage and response data from five fires in Colorado and southern California, we document the rainfall conditions that have triggered post-fire debris flows and develop empirical rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for the occurrence of debris flows and floods following wildfires in these settings. This information can provide guidance for warning systems and planning for emergency response in similar settings. Debris flows were produced from 25 recently burned basins in Colorado in response to 13 short-duration, high-intensity convective storms. Debris flows were triggered after as little as six to 10??min of storm rainfall. About 80% of the storms that generated debris flows lasted less than 3??h, with most of the rain falling in less than 1??h. The storms triggering debris flows ranged in average intensity between 1.0 and 32.0??mm/h, and had recurrence intervals of two years or less. Threshold rainfall conditions for floods and debris flows sufficiently large to pose threats to life and property from recently burned areas in south-central, and southwestern, Colorado are defined by: I = 6.5D-??0.7 and I = 9.5D-??0.7, respectively, where I = rainfall intensity (in mm/h) and D = duration (in hours). Debris flows were generated from 68 recently burned areas in southern California in response to long-duration frontal storms. The flows occurred after as little as two hours, and up to 16??h, of low-intensity (2-10??mm/h) rainfall. The storms lasted between 5.5 and 33??h, with average intensities between 1.3 and 20.4??mm/h, and had recurrence intervals of two years or less. Threshold rainfall conditions for life- and property-threatening floods and debris flows during the first winter season following fires in Ventura County, and in the San Bernardino, San Gabriel and San Jacinto Mountains of southern California are defined by I = 12.5D-0.4, and I = 7.2D-0.4, respectively. A threshold defined for flood and debris-flow conditions following a year of vegetative recovery and sediment removal for the San Bernardino, San Gabriel and San Jacinto Mountains of I = 14.0D-0.5 is approximately 25??mm/h higher than that developed for the first year following fires. The thresholds defined here are significantly lower than most identified for unburned settings, perhaps because of the difference between extremely rapid, runoff-dominated processes acting in burned areas and longer-term, infiltration-dominated processes on unburned hillslopes. Crown Copyright ?? 2007.

Euro-Atlantic winter storminess and precipitation extremes under 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C warming scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barcikowska, Monika J.; Weaver, Scott J.; Feser, Frauke; Russo, Simone; Schenk, Frederik; Stone, Dáithí A.; Wehner, Michael F.; Zahn, Matthias

2018-06-01

Severe winter storms in combination with precipitation extremes pose a serious threat to Europe. Located at the southeastern exit of the North Atlantic's storm track, European coastlines are directly exposed to impacts by high wind speeds, storm floods and coastal erosion. In this study we analyze potential changes in simulated winter storminess and extreme precipitation, which may occur under 1.5 or 2 °C warming scenarios. Here we focus on a first simulation suite of the atmospheric model CAM5 performed within the HAPPI project and evaluate how changes of the horizontal model resolution impact the results regarding atmospheric pressure, storm tracks, wind speed and precipitation extremes. The comparison of CAM5 simulations with different resolutions indicates that an increased horizontal resolution to 0.25° not only refines regional-scale information but also improves large-scale atmospheric circulation features over the Euro-Atlantic region. The zonal bias in monthly pressure at mean sea level and wind fields, which is typically found in low-resolution models, is considerably reduced. This allows us to analyze potential changes in regional- to local-scale extreme wind speeds and precipitation in a more realistic way. Our analysis of the future response for the 2 °C warming scenario generally confirms previous model simulations suggesting a poleward shift and intensification of the meridional circulation in the Euro-Atlantic region. Additional analysis suggests that this shift occurs mainly after exceeding the 1.5 °C global warming level, when the midlatitude jet stream manifests a strengthening northeastward. At the same time, this northeastern shift of the storm tracks allows an intensification and northeastern expansion of the Azores high, leading to a tendency of less precipitation across the Bay of Biscay and North Sea. Regions impacted by the strengthening of the midlatitude jet, such as the northwestern coasts of the British Isles, Scandinavia and the Norwegian Sea, and over the North Atlantic east of Newfoundland, experience an increase in the mean as well as daily and sub-daily precipitation, wind extremes and storminess, suggesting an important influence of increasing storm activity in these regions in response to global warming.

Using highways for no-notice evacuations : routes to effective evacuation planning primer series.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-11-01

The focus of this primer is no-notice events. These no-notice incidents occur for many reasons, such as forest fires, major : storms, chemical spills, or terrorist acts. Their common denominator is that they occur with little or no warning, which pre...

USCG VHF Voice

Science.gov Websites

! Boating Safety Beach Hazards Rip Currents Hypothermia Hurricanes Thunderstorms Lightning Coastal Flooding frequency) The U.S. Coast Guard broadcasts coastal forecasts and storm Warnings of interest to the mariner coverage of coastal U.S., Great Lakes, Hawaii, and populated Alaska coastline. Typical coverage is 20

ALASKA MARINE VHF VOICE

Science.gov Websites

Tsunamis 406 EPIRB's National Weather Service Marine Forecasts ALASKA MARINE VHF VOICE Marine Forecast greater danger near shore or any shallow waters? NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PRODUCTS VIA ALASKA MARINE VHF VOICE NOAA broadcasts offshore forecasts, nearshore forecasts and storm warnings on marine VHF channels

NASA Sees Tropical Storm Linfa Between Taiwan and Northern Philippines

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

NASA's Aqua satellite captured a picture of Tropical Storm Linfa in the South China Sea on July 7 when it was between southern Taiwan and the northern Philippines. Aqua passed over Linfa on July 7 at 05:25 UTC (1:25 a.m. EDT) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer or MODIS instrument captured a visible image of the storm. Bands of thunderstorms wrapping into the center of circulation from the south, draped over western Luzon. The MODIS image showed the tight concentration of thunderstorms around Linfa's center were located over the South China Sea. Fragmented bands of thunderstorms north of the center were brushing over Southern Taiwan while clouds from another band of fragmented thunderstorms stretched northwest through the Taiwan Strait. On July 7 at 1500 UTC (11 a.m. EDT), Tropical Storm Linfa's maximum sustained winds had increased to 50 knots (57.5 mph/92.6 kph), up from 45 knots (51.7 mph/83.3 kph) six hours before. Linfa strengthened in the warm waters of the South China Sea now that its center has moved away from the northern Philippines and was no longer over land. Linfa was centered near 21.0 North latitude and 118.8 East longitude, about 277 nautical miles (319 miles/513.3 km) east-southeast of Hong Kong, China. Linfa has tracked northward at 3 knots (3.5 mph/5.5 kph). China's National Meteorological Centre has (CNMC) issued a yellow category warning of typhoon at 6:00 a.m. July 7, Beijing Time. CNMC noted that Linfa is the tenth typhoon this year and at that time it was centered about 430 km (267.2 miles) southeast of border between Fujian and Guangdong For updated warnings and watches from the China Meteorological Service, visit: www.cma.gov.cn/en/WeatherWarnings/. Linfa is moving north between Luzon and Taiwan. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center expects Linfa to strengthen to 60 knots (69 mph/111 kph) by mid-day on July 9, before weakening and then making landfall in mainland China. Credit: NASA/GSFC/Jeff Schmaltz/MODIS Land Rapid Response Team NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Identifying hotspots of coastal risk and evaluating DRR measures: results from the RISC-KIT project.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Dongeren, A.; Ciavola, P.; Viavattene, C.; Dekleermaeker, S.; Martinez, G.; Ferreira, O.; Costa, C.

2016-02-01

High-impact storm events have demonstrated the vulnerability of coastal zones in Europe and beyond. These impacts are likely to increase due to predicted climate change and ongoing coastal development. In order to reduce impacts, disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures need to be taken, which prevent or mitigate the effects of storm events. To drive the DRR agenda, the UNISDR formulated the Sendai Framework for Action, and the EU has issued the Floods Directive. However, neither is specific about the methods to be used to develop actionable DRR measures in the coastal zone. Therefore, there is a need to develop methods, tools and approaches which make it possible to: identify and prioritize the coastal zones which are most at risk through a Coastal Risk Assessment Framework, evaluate the effectiveness of DRR options for these coastal areas, using an Early Warning/Decision Support System, which can be used both in the planning and event-phase. This paper gives an overview of the products and results obtained in the FP7-funded project RISC-KIT, which aims to develop and apply a set of tools with which highly-vulnerable coastal areas (so-called "hotspots") can be identified. The identification is done using the Coastal Risk Assessment Framework, or CRAF, which computes the intensity from multi-hazards, the exposure and the vulnerability, all components of risk, including network and cascading effects. Based on this analysis hot spots of risk which warrant coastal protection investments are selected. For these hotspot areas, high-resolution Early Warning and Decision Support Tools are developed with which it is possible to compute in detail the effectiveness of Disaster Risk Reduction measures in storm event scenarios, which helps decide which measures to implement in the planning phase. The same systems, but now driven with real time data, can also be used for early warning systems. All tools are tested on eleven case study areas, at least one on each EU Regional Sea, and one international case in Bangladesh. Promising DRR measures and experiences are collected in a web-based Management Guide, and information on storm impacts is stored in a Coastal Risk Database.

Debris Flows and Road Damage Following a Wildfire in 2014 on the Klamath National Forest, Northern California, Near the Community of Seiad, CA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De La Fuente, J. A.; Mikulovsky, R. P.

2016-12-01

Wildfires in summer 2014 burned more than 200,000 acres on the Klamath National Forest in Northern California, east of Seiad, CA. Much of the area burned at high and moderate severity, and is underlain by Slinkard Pluton granitic rock. During winter 2014-2015, there were a few debris flows in small streams, and some clogged culverts on the road system, but overall road damage was minor. In July of 2015, a strong convective storm triggered several large debris flows, including East Fork Walker and No Name Creeks. These and other debris flows damaged road stream crossings, and delivered a large volume of sediment to the stream network. LiDAR differencing is being used to identify and quantify erosion and deposition from that storm. Field inventories revealed widespread rills and small gullies on steep, burned hillslopes, particularly where underlain by granitic rock. Resulting debris flows were of the sediment bulking variety, and no landslide-triggered debris flows were observed. This may be because intense summer storms are of short duration, and are unlikely to saturate the surface mantle, due also to water repellant soil conditions. It is unknown if erosion during the first winter affected the response to the July storm. Storms around January 17, 2016 initiated many road fill failures, and most were limited to the outer half of the road. Field investigations revealed that granitic road fills failed in a variety of settings, including planar hillslopes, on the flanks of ridges, channel crossings, and at road dips. In virtually all cases, vegetation on the fills, up to 50 years old, had been killed by the 2014 fire. Some fills developed small cracks and scarps, whereas others failed catastrophically as debris slides/flows. Few sediment-bulking debris flows were observed in January, 2016. Road damage exceeded two million dollars, and qualified for Emergency Relief Federally Owned funding (ERFO). The effects of the July, 2015 storm were dominated by sheet wash, rilling, flooding, and debris flows, and road damage was concentrated at stream crossings. In contrast, storms in winter 2015-2016 produced many road fill failures, often far from stream crossings, and these were probably associated with deeper saturation of the regolith. Thus, it is critical that road repair measures address both overland flow and saturation responses.

Hurricane Patricia Viewed by NASA ISS-RapidScat

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-10-23

NASA's ISS-RapidScat passed over Hurricane Patricia at about 3:00 AM GMT on Oct. 23, 2015. A Hurricane Warning was in effect from San Blas to Punta San Telmo. A Hurricane Watch was in effect from east of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas and a Tropical Storm Warning was in effect from east of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas. Patricia was moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 kph) and a turn toward the north is expected later this morning, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast this afternoon. On the forecast track, the core of Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area today, Oct. 23, 2015, during the afternoon or evening. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA20031

Occurrence and Transport of Diazinon in the Sacramento River and Selected Tributaries, California, during Two Winter Storms, January?February 2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dileanis, Peter D.; Brown, David L.; Knifong, Donna L.; Saleh, Dina

2003-01-01

Diazinon, an organophosphate insecticide, is applied as an orchard dormant spray in the Sacramento Valley during the winter months when the area receives most of its annual rainfall. During winter rainstorms that frequently follow dormant spray applications, some of the applied pesticide is transported in storm runoff to the Sacramento River and its tributaries. Diazinon is also used to control insect pests on residential and commercial properties in urban areas and is frequently detected in urban storm runoff draining into the Sacramento River system. Between January 24 and February 14, 2001, diazinon concentrations and loads were measured in the Sacramento River and selected tributaries during two winter storms that occurred after dormant spray applications were made to orchards in the Sacramento Valley. Water samples were collected at 21 sites that represented agricultural and urban inputs on a variety of scales, from small tributaries and drains representing local land use to main-stem river sites representing regional effects. Concentrations of diazinon ranged from below laboratory reporting levels to 1,380 nanograms per liter (ng/L), with a median of 55 ng/L during the first monitored storm and 26 ng/L during the second. The highest concentrations were observed in small channels draining predominantly agricultural land. About 26,000 pounds of diazinon were reported applied to agricultural land in the study area just before and during the monitoring period. About 0.2 percent of the applied insecticide appeared to be transported to the lower Sacramento River during that period. The source of about one third of the total load measured in the lower Sacramento River appears to be in the portion of the drainage basin upstream of the city of Colusa. About 12 percent of the diazinon load in the lower Sacramento River was transported from the Feather River Basin, which drains much of the mountainous eastern portions of the Sacramento River Basin. Diazinon use in the study area during the 2000?2001 dormant spray season continued a declining trend observed since 1993. The maximum concentrations of diazinon observed during the last 2 years of monitoring were lower than concentrations observed in previous years when larger amounts of diazinon had been applied as dormant sprays.

Directional analysis and filtering for dust storm detection in NOAA-AVHRR imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janugani, S.; Jayaram, V.; Cabrera, S. D.; Rosiles, J. G.; Gill, T. E.; Rivera Rivera, N.

2009-05-01

In this paper, we propose spatio-spectral processing techniques for the detection of dust storms and automatically finding its transport direction in 5-band NOAA-AVHRR imagery. Previous methods that use simple band math analysis have produced promising results but have drawbacks in producing consistent results when low signal to noise ratio (SNR) images are used. Moreover, in seeking to automate the dust storm detection, the presence of clouds in the vicinity of the dust storm creates a challenge in being able to distinguish these two types of image texture. This paper not only addresses the detection of the dust storm in the imagery, it also attempts to find the transport direction and the location of the sources of the dust storm. We propose a spatio-spectral processing approach with two components: visualization and automation. Both approaches are based on digital image processing techniques including directional analysis and filtering. The visualization technique is intended to enhance the image in order to locate the dust sources. The automation technique is proposed to detect the transport direction of the dust storm. These techniques can be used in a system to provide timely warnings of dust storms or hazard assessments for transportation, aviation, environmental safety, and public health.

Worldwide Emerging Environmental Issues Affecting the U.S. Military. June 2010 Report

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-06-01

Increasing Advocacy for BPA Restrictions…………………………….……………8 6.9 Toxic Substances Control Act Up for Revision…………………………..………….8 6.10 Climate Change ...arrangements against EMPs in the light of this forecast. Source: NASA warns solar flares from ’huge space storm’ will cause devastation http...www.telegraph.co.uk/science/space/7819201/Nasa-warns-solar-flares-from-huge-space-sto rm-will- cause -devastation.html Item 2. OSCE is Enhancing Environmental

NOAA releases final report of Sandy service assessment

Science.gov Websites

released a report on the National Weather Service's performance during hurricane/post tropical cyclone Sandy. The report, Hurricane/Post Tropical Cyclone Sandy Service Assessment, reaffirms that the National warnings for dangerous storms like Sandy, even when they are expected to become post-tropical cyclones by

Storm Warning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Tammy; Kier, Meredith; Phillips, Kelsey

2016-01-01

To show students how engineering design practices reduce the impacts of a natural hazard, the authors--two science educators and an elementary teacher--taught a three-day 5E lesson that focused on hurricanes. They specifically focused on hurricanes because their students are located near a coastal area and are familiar with the effects of this…

78 FR 63966 - Notice of Change to the Nation's Tidal Datums With the Adoption of a Modified Procedure for...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-10-25

... boundary determinations, coastal engineering, storm warnings and hazard mitigation, emergency management... shoreline depiction may need to be updated on the next regularly scheduled chart edition. Although... Web site ( http://www.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov ) or contact the Center for Operational Oceanographic...

Investigating Added Value of Regional Climate Modeling in North American Winter Storm Track Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poan, E.; Gachon, P., Sr.; Laprise, R.; Aider, R.; Dueymes, G.

2017-12-01

This study describes a framework using possibilities given by regional climate models (RCMs) to gain insight into extratropical cyclone (EC) activity during winter over North America (NA). Recent past climate period (1981 - 2005) is firstly considered using the NCEP regional reanalysis (NARR) as a reference, along with the European global reanalysis ERA-Interim (ERAI) and two CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) used to drive the Canadian RCM - version 5 (CRCM5) and the corresponding regional-scale simulations. While ERAI and GCM simulations show basic agreement with NARR in terms of climatological EC track patterns, detailed bias analyses show that, on the one hand, ERAI presents statistically significant positive biases in terms of EC genesis and therefore occurrence while their intensity is well captured. On the other hand, GCMs present large negative intensity biases in the overall NA domain and particularly over the eastern coast. In addition, storm occurrence from GCMs over the northwestern topographic regions is highly overestimated. When the CRCM5 is driven by ERAI, no significant skill deterioration arises and, more importantly, all storm characteristics near areas with main relief and over regions with large water masses are significantly improved with respect to ERAI. Conversely, in GCM-driven simulations, the added value from the CRCM5 is less prominent and systematic, except over western areas with high topography and over the Western Atlantic coastlines where the most frequent and intense ECs are located. Finally, time period near the end of the 21st century (2071-2100) is considered to analyze EC characteristic trends and changes relative to the current climate conditions, showing important modifications in storm activity for certain winter months, especially in term of intensity over the eastern coast.

Effects of sea-ice and biogeochemical processes and storms on under-ice water fCO2 during the winter-spring transition in the high Arctic Ocean: Implications for sea-air CO2 fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fransson, Agneta; Chierici, Melissa; Skjelvan, Ingunn; Olsen, Are; Assmy, Philipp; Peterson, Algot K.; Spreen, Gunnar; Ward, Brian

2017-07-01

We performed measurements of carbon dioxide fugacity (fCO2) in the surface water under Arctic sea ice from January to June 2015 during the Norwegian young sea ICE (N-ICE2015) expedition. Over this period, the ship drifted with four different ice floes and covered the deep Nansen Basin, the slopes north of Svalbard, and the Yermak Plateau. This unique winter-to-spring data set includes the first winter-time under-ice water fCO2 observations in this region. The observed under-ice fCO2 ranged between 315 µatm in winter and 153 µatm in spring, hence was undersaturated relative to the atmospheric fCO2. Although the sea ice partly prevented direct CO2 exchange between ocean and atmosphere, frequently occurring leads and breakup of the ice sheet promoted sea-air CO2 fluxes. The CO2 sink varied between 0.3 and 86 mmol C m-2 d-1, depending strongly on the open-water fractions (OW) and storm events. The maximum sea-air CO2 fluxes occurred during storm events in February and June. In winter, the main drivers of the change in under-ice water fCO2 were dissolution of CaCO3 (ikaite) and vertical mixing. In June, in addition to these processes, primary production and sea-air CO2 fluxes were important. The cumulative loss due to CaCO3 dissolution of 0.7 mol C m-2 in the upper 10 m played a major role in sustaining the undersaturation of fCO2 during the entire study. The relative effects of the total fCO2 change due to CaCO3 dissolution was 38%, primary production 26%, vertical mixing 16%, sea-air CO2 fluxes 16%, and temperature and salinity insignificant.

Glaze Damage In 13- To 18-Year-Old, Natural, Even-Aged Stands of Loblolly Pines in Southeastern Arkansas

Treesearch

Michael D. Cain; Michael G. Shelton

2002-01-01

In late December 1998, a severe winter storm deposited 2.1 inches of precipitation on the Crossett Experimental Forest in southeastern Arkansas. Ice, in the form of glaze, accumulated on needles and branches of trees, and resulted in visual damage to sapling and pulpwood-sized pines. Within 60 days after the storm, damage was assessed within naturally regenerated,...

Respiratory disease and particulate air pollution in Santiago Chile: Contribution of erosion particles from fine sediments

Treesearch

Pablo A. Garcia-Chevesich; Sergio Alvarado; Daniel G. Neary; Rodrigo Valdes; Juan Valdes; Juan Jose Aguirre; Marcelo Mena; Roberto Pizarro; Paolo Jofre; Mauricio Vera; Claudio Olivares

2014-01-01

Air pollution in Santiago is a serious problem every winter, causing thousands of cases of breathing problems within the population. With more than 6 million people and almost two million vehicles, this large city receives rainfall only during winters. Depending on the frequency of storms, statistics show that every time it rains, air quality improves for a couple of...

Windthrown trees on the Kings River Ranger District, Sierra National Forest: meteorological aspects

Treesearch

Michael A. Fosberg

1986-01-01

Blowdown in shelterwood, sanitation cuts, and other partial cuts on the Kings River Ranger District, Sierra National Forest, are due to Mono winds. Both winter storm and Mono winds were considered as causes of winter blowdown. All evidence, e.g., direction of tree-fall and occurrence of high wind events, point to Mono wind events as the cause of blowdown. Only 12...

Loran-C monitor correlation over a 92-mile baseline in Ohio

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lilley, Robert W.; Edwards, Jamie S.

1988-01-01

Two Loran C monitors, at Galion and Athens, Ohio, were operated over a one-year period, measuring chain 9960 Time Delay (TD) and Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR). Analysis of data concentrated on correlation of short term TD variations during the winter months of 1985 to 86, over the 92 nm baseline. Excellent correlation was found, with slight additional improvement possible if local temperature is also included in the analysis. Although SNR and TD effects were suspected during the presence of thunderstorms near the monitors, the scope of the study did not permit storm by storm analysis. A computer tape data base of all measurements was produced, with measurements at both sites included. Data recording and analysis concentrated on the fall and winter months of September 1985 to February 1986.

Who's at Risk? Warning Signs | NIH MedlinePlus the Magazine

MedlinePlus

... this page please turn Javascript on. Feature: Preventing Suicides Who's at Risk? Past Issues / Winter 2010 Table ... times more likely than women to die from suicide. However, three times more women than men attempt ...

Modelling economic losses of historic and present-day high-impact winter storms in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welker, Christoph; Martius, Olivia; Stucki, Peter; Bresch, David; Dierer, Silke; Brönnimann, Stefan

2015-04-01

Windstorms can cause significant financial damage and they rank among the most hazardous meteorological hazards in Switzerland. Risk associated with windstorms involves the combination of hazardous weather conditions, such as high wind gust speeds, and socio-economic factors, such as the distribution of assets as well as their susceptibilities to damage. A sophisticated risk assessment is important in a wide range of areas and has benefits for e.g. the insurance industry. However, a sophisticated risk assessment needs a large sample of storm events for which high-resolution, quantitative meteorological and/or loss data are available. Latter is typically an aggravating factor. For present-day windstorms in Switzerland, the data basis is generally sufficient to describe the meteorological development and wind forces as well as the associated impacts. In contrast, historic windstorms are usually described by graphical depictions of the event and/or by weather and loss reports. The information on historic weather events is overall sparse and the available historic weather and loss reports mostly do not provide quantitative information. It has primarily been the field of activity of environmental historians to study historic weather extremes and their impacts. Furthermore, the scarce availability of atmospheric datasets reaching back sufficiently in time has so far limited the analysis of historic weather events. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) ensemble dataset, a global atmospheric reanalysis currently spanning 1871 to 2012, offers potentially a very valuable resource for the analysis of historic weather events. However, the 2°×2° latitude-longitude grid of the 20CR is too coarse to realistically represent the complex orography of Switzerland, which has considerable ramifications for the representation of smaller-scale features of the surface wind field influenced by the local orography. Using the 20CR as a starting point, this study illustrates a method to simulate the wind field and related economic impact of both historic and present-day high-impact winter storms in Switzerland since end of the 19th century. Our technique involves the dynamical downscaling of the 20CR to 3 km horizontal resolution using the numerical Weather Research and Forecasting model and the subsequent loss simulation using an open-source impact model. This impact model estimates, for modern economic and social conditions, storm-related economic losses at municipality level, and thus allows a numerical simulation of the impact from both historic and present-day severe winter storms in Switzerland on a relatively fine spatial scale. In this study, we apply the modelling chain to a storm sample of almost 90 high-impact winter storms in Switzerland since 1871, and we are thus able to make a statement of the typical wind and loss patterns of hazardous windstorms in Switzerland. To evaluate our modelling chain, we compare simulated storm losses with insurance loss data for the present-day windstorms "Lothar" and "Joachim" in December 1999 and December 2011, respectively. Our study further includes a range of sensitivity experiments and a discussion of the main sources of uncertainty.

Classification and Feature Selection Algorithms for Modeling Ice Storm Climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swaminathan, R.; Sridharan, M.; Hayhoe, K.; Dobbie, G.

2015-12-01

Ice storms account for billions of dollars of winter storm loss across the continental US and Canada. In the future, increasing concentration of human populations in areas vulnerable to ice storms such as the northeastern US will only exacerbate the impacts of these extreme events on infrastructure and society. Quantifying the potential impacts of global climate change on ice storm prevalence and frequency is challenging, as ice storm climatology is driven by complex and incompletely defined atmospheric processes, processes that are in turn influenced by a changing climate. This makes the underlying atmospheric and computational modeling of ice storm climatology a formidable task. We propose a novel computational framework that uses sophisticated stochastic classification and feature selection algorithms to model ice storm climatology and quantify storm occurrences from both reanalysis and global climate model outputs. The framework is based on an objective identification of ice storm events by key variables derived from vertical profiles of temperature, humidity and geopotential height. Historical ice storm records are used to identify days with synoptic-scale upper air and surface conditions associated with ice storms. Evaluation using NARR reanalysis and historical ice storm records corresponding to the northeastern US demonstrates that an objective computational model with standard performance measures, with a relatively high degree of accuracy, identify ice storm events based on upper-air circulation patterns and provide insights into the relationships between key climate variables associated with ice storms.

Strategic Studies Quarterly: Volume 10, No. 4 Winter 2016

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-01-01

capabilities for intelligence col- lection, communications , and missile warning-capabilities largely in- tended to support strategic nuclear forces. 1...WINTER 2016 NASA in the Second Space Age: Exploration, Partnering, and Security declined by 12 percent in real terms from FYlO to FY15. 11 The BCA...orbit as part of the Apollo program, six of which landed on the moon, while there have been hun- dreds of manned missions to LEO. The risks to humans

Unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning following a winter storm--Washington, January 1993.

PubMed

1993-02-19

Carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning was a major health consequence of a severe storm that struck the Puget Sound region of western Washington state the morning of January 20, 1993. Wind gusts up to 94 miles per hour interrupted electrical power for an estimated 776,000 residents, and during the 4 nights following the storm, temperatures fell to near freezing. Because of the use of alternative sources of energy for indoor cooking and home heating, the risk of exposure to CO increased for many persons. This report summarizes cases of storm-related CO poisoning among persons who were initially evaluated at Seattle's Harborview Medical Center (HMC) or who were referred to the Virginia Mason Medical Center (VMMC) for hyperbaric oxygen therapy.

Satellite Sees Major Winter Storm Ready to Wallop Mid-Atlantic

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-03-02

A major winter storm is poised to wallop the Mid-Atlantic and bring large amounts of snow to cities including Baltimore, Md., Washington, D.C. area on March 2 and 3, according to NOAA's National Weather Service. NOAA's GOES-East satellite captured this image of the clouds associated with the winter storm as it continued moving east toward those cities. On March 2, the National Weather Prediction Center in College Park, Md. noted that there is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms over parts of the western Gulf Coast and the Lower Mississippi Valley as a result of the southern portion of the system. The update at 7 a.m. EST noted that freezing rain/sleet is possible over parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the central Appalachians, while eastern Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley are expected to experience heavy rain. The NWS Short Range Forecast Discussion stated "A strong storm over the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley will advance northeastward along a quasi-stationary front to off the Southern Mid-Atlantic Coast by Monday evening. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will overrun and pool along the associated front producing an area of snow extending from the Central Plains into the Northeast." The clouds are associated with a cold from that stretches from eastern Maine through Maryland and west into the Tennessee Valley. The low pressure center associated with the front was located over Arkansas. At NASA/NOAA's GOES Project at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. the cloud data from NOAA's GOES-East satellite were overlaid on a true-color image of land and ocean created by data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer or MODIS instrument that flies aboard NASA's Aqua and Terra satellites. Together, those data created the entire picture of the position of this major winter storm. GOES satellites provide the kind of continuous monitoring necessary for intensive data analysis. Geostationary describes an orbit in which a satellite is always in the same position with respect to the rotating Earth. This allows GOES to hover continuously over one position on Earth's surface, appearing stationary. As a result, GOES provide a constant vigil for the atmospheric "triggers" for severe weather conditions such as tornadoes, flash floods, hail storms and hurricanes. For updated information about the storm system, visit NOAA's NWS website: www.weather.gov For more information about GOES satellites, visit: www.goes.noaa.gov/ or goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/ Rob Gutro NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md. NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Effects of sudden air pressure changes on hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases in Prague

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kysely, Jan; Plavcova, Eva

2013-04-01

Sudden weather changes have long been supposed to be associated with negative impacts on human health. However, relatively few studies attempted to quantify these relationships. In this study, we use large 6-hour changes of atmospheric sea level pressure as proxy for sudden weather changes, and evaluate their association with hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases. Winter and summer seasons and positive and negative pressure changes are analyzed separately, using data for the city of Prague (population of 1.2 million) over 16-year period (1994-2009). We find that sudden pressure drops in winter are associated with significant increases in the number of hospital admissions. Increases in morbidity are not observed for pressure drops in summer, nor pressure increases in any season. Analysis of synoptic weather maps shows that the large pressure drops in winter are associated with strong zonal (westerly) flow and rapidly moving low pressure systems with centres over Northern Europe and atmospheric fronts affecting the area of Western and Central Europe. Several of the largest pressure decreases were associated with infamous winter storms (such as Lothar on December 25, 1999 and Kyrill on January 18, 2007). Analysis of links between passages of strong atmospheric fronts and hospital admissions shows that the links are much weaker if weather changes are characterized by frontal passages. Since climate models project strengthening of the zonal circulation in winter and increased frequency of winter storms, the negative effects of such weather phenomena and their possible changes in a warmer climate of the 21st century need to be better understood, particularly as their importance in inducing excess morbidity and mortality in winter may increase compared to cold spells.

75 FR 17178 - Nebraska Disaster Number NE-00033

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-04-05

... (FEMA-1878-DR), dated 02/25/2010 . Incident: Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorm. Incident Period: 12/22..., Frontier, Furnas, Gosper, Greeley, Harlan, Holt, Howard, Knox, Loup, Merrick, Nuckolls, Pierce, Platte...

Seasonal geomorphic processes and rates of sand movement at Mount Baldy dune in Indiana, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kilibarda, Zoran; Kilibarda, Vesna

2016-12-01

Winds are very strong, frequent, and have high energy (annual DP ∼800 VU) along the southern shores of Lake Michigan, allowing the coexistence of fixed and active dunes. Six years (2007-13) of monitoring Mount Baldy in the Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore reveals that this is the most active coastal dune in the Great Lakes region. This paper documents aeolian processes and changes in the dune's morphology that occur temporarily, following storms, or seasonally, due to weather (climate) variations. Most of the sand transport in this area takes place during strong storms with gale force (>17.5 m/s) winds, which occur in the autumn and winter months. A single storm, such as the October 28-31, 2013 event, can contribute 25% of the annual sand transport and dune movement inland. In its most active year (June 1, 2011 through May 31, 2012), Mount Baldy moved inland on average 4.34 m, with a maximum of 6.52 m along the blowout's axis (155° azimuth). During this particularly active season, there were six storms with sustained gale force winds, winter air temperatures were warmer than average, and shelf ice on Lake Michigan lasted only one day. The dune is least active during the summer season, when the winds are weakest. The late fall and winter winds are the strongest. But in a typical year, most of the dune's advance inland takes place during the spring thaw when sand is released from over-steepened and lumpy slip face, allowing it to avalanche to the toe of the slip face. However, with a warming air temperatures, a reduction in the duration of winter shelf ice, and rising Lake Michigan levels, the annual rates of sand transport and dune movement may increase. The recent Mount Baldy management strategy, which includes planting vegetation and installing wind barriers on the dune's stoss side in an effort to fix the dune and stop its further movement inland, may potentially cause the destruction of the mobile sand, open dune habitat, resulting in the extinction of rare plants, insects, lizards, birds, and mammals.

Isotopic Variability in Central Valley Precipitation Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keene, D.; Sowers, T.; Wagner, A. J.

2017-12-01

Wintertime precipitation in the Sacramento Valley is characterized by two regimes: northerly storms generated by the polar jet stream and southerly storms generated by subtropical atmospheric rivers (ARs). Polar jet stream storms account for the majority of storm activity in the central valley, but the amount of subtropical moisture available for transport tends to increase during El Niño years. However, during the El Niño of 2015-2016, California continued to experience drought conditions with the Sacramento area receiving below average wintertime precipitation. Although the 2016-2017 winter was not an El Niño year, the Sacramento area received more than 190% of its average precipitation from ARs in the opening months of 2017. While this suggests that ARs are a significant part of California's hydrologic cycle independent of El Niño, it has not been established whether these storms have an isotopically distinct signature compared to those generated by the polar jet stream or if their signature covaries with ENSO. To investigate the potential isotopic variability of ARs, rainwater was collected over a period of three years in the Sacramento Valley and the surrounding areas and analyzed for δD and δ18O. Since El Niño is generally considered to cause an increase in the amount of available subtropical moisture delivered to the Sacramento valley, we would expect precipitation during those years to be less depleted than precipitation in non-El Niño years. On average, δD and δ18O values of precipitation during the 2015-2016 winter were not significantly different compared to precipitation from 2016-2017 even though 2016-2017 was dominated by historic amounts of AR rainfall. This suggests that the frequency and intensity of atmospheric river storm events may not be intimately linked with the ENSO cycle.

Early Carboniferous (Tournasian-early Visean) global paleogeography, Paleostorm tracts, and the distribution of Waulsortian and Waulsortian-like carbonate mud mounds

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

King, D.T. Jr.

1990-05-01

Tournasian-early Visean mud mounds (i.e., Waulsortian and Waulsortian-like mounds) are unlike other carbonate buildups in the stratigraphic record because they lack an identifiable frame-building organism. Waulsortian mounds are comprised mainly of carbonate mud; Waulsortian-like mounds are mud-rich and contain a significant percent of skeletal grains, especially crinoids and bryozoa. This study has revealed that all of the reported Waulsortian and Waulsortian-like mounds developed in low paleolatitudes either on the southern shelf margin of the Laurussian paleocontinent or in the Laurussian interior seaway. Waulsortian and Waulsortian-like mounds are specifically not present in low-latitude regions of other paleocontinents. As Tournasian-early Visean carbonatemore » deposition was widespread in the range of 30{degree}N to 10{degree}S, the very restricted paleogeographic distribution of Waulsortian and Waulsortian-like mound locations suggests a mechanism or set of conditions that effectively limited the distribution of mud mounds. Considering the Tournasian-early Visean distribution of paleocontinents and the principles that govern the movement of modern hurricanes, tropical storms, and winter storms, the tracts of hurricanes, tropical storms, and winter storms probably crossed all main submerged paleocontinental areas except the southern Laurussian shelf margin and the Laurussian interior seaway, the two areas where mud mounds developed. The lack of storm energy in these two large areas of Laurussia provided long-term stability and thus enhanced the growth prospects of the frame-deficient Waulsortian and Waulsortian-like mud mounds. Lack of extensive periodic wave reworking and other storm-induced devastation helps to account for enigmatic features such as general mound symmetry, great size, high depositional relief (as much as 220 m), and side steepness (as steep as 50{degree}).« less

Climatological Factors Affecting Electromagnetic Surface Ducting in the Aegean Sea Region

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-01

low precipitation, and northeasterly winds, all due to changes in large scale circulations and a northward shift in extratropical storm tracks. The...differences over the Aegean region, that are governed by large-scale climate factors. a. Winter During winter, the Aegean area is subject to extratropical ... extratropical cyclones from entering the Aegean region, while opposite shifts can 18 allow extratropical cyclones to more frequently enter the Aegean

Flight Awareness Collaboration Tool Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mogford, Richard

2016-01-01

This is a PowerPoint presentation covering airline operations center (AOC) research. It reviews a dispatcher decision support tool called the Flight Awareness Collaboration Tool (FACT). FACT gathers information about winter weather onto one screen and includes predictive abilities. FACT should prove to be useful for airline dispatchers and airport personnel when they manage winter storms and their effect on air traffic. This material is very similar to other previously approved presentations.

Chicago, Illinois, USA

NASA Image and Video Library

1990-03-04

In this late winter scene of Chicago, Illinois, USA (41.5N, 87.0W) the light dusting of snow has actually enhanced the determination of the cities street pattern, parks and other cultural features. Sited at the south end of Lake Michigan, Chicago has long served as an industrial, transportation and communications center for the midwest. The obvious snowline on the ground enables meteorologists to trace the regional groundtracks of winter storms.

Winter Storms and Extreme Cold

MedlinePlus

... your home to keep out the cold with insulation, caulking, and weather stripping. Learn how to keep ... and grills outdoors and away from windows. Never heat your home with a gas stovetop or oven. ...

76 FR 11835 - Oregon Disaster #OR-00036

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-03-03

... declaration of a major disaster for Public Assistance Only for the State of Oregon (FEMA-1956- DR), dated 02/17/2011. Incident: Severe Winter Storm, Flooding, Mudslides, Landslides, and Debris Flows. Incident...

Full Spatial Resolution Infrared Sounding Application in the Preconvection Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, C.; Liu, G.; Lin, T.

2013-12-01

Advanced infrared (IR) sounders such as the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) provide atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles with high vertical resolution and high accuracy in preconvection environments. The derived atmospheric stability indices such as convective available potential energy (CAPE) and lifted index (LI) from advanced IR soundings can provide critical information 1 ; 6 h before the development of severe convective storms. Three convective storms are selected for the evaluation of applying AIRS full spatial resolution soundings and the derived products on providing warning information in the preconvection environments. In the first case, the AIRS full spatial resolution soundings revealed local extremely high atmospheric instability 3 h ahead of the convection on the leading edge of a frontal system, while the second case demonstrates that the extremely high atmospheric instability is associated with the local development of severe thunderstorm in the following hours. The third case is a local severe storm that occurred on 7-8 August 2010 in Zhou Qu, China, which caused more than 1400 deaths and left another 300 or more people missing. The AIRS full spatial resolution LI product shows the atmospheric instability 3.5 h before the storm genesis. The CAPE and LI from AIRS full spatial resolution and operational AIRS/AMSU soundings along with Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Sounder derived product image (DPI) products were analyzed and compared. Case studies show that full spatial resolution AIRS retrievals provide more useful warning information in the preconvection environments for determining favorable locations for convective initiation (CI) than do the coarser spatial resolution operational soundings and lower spectral resolution GOES Sounder retrievals. The retrieved soundings are also tested in a regional data assimilation WRF 3D-var system to evaluate the potential assist in the NWP model.

Typhoon Haiyan-Induced Storm Surge Simulation in Metro Manila Using High-Resolution LiDAR Topographic Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santiago, J. T.

2015-12-01

Storm surge is the abnormal rise in sea water over and above astronomical tides due to a forthcoming storm. Developing an early warning system for storm surges is vital due to the high level of hazard they might cause. On 08 November 2013, Typhoon Haiyan generated storm surges that killed over 6,000 people in the central part of the Philippines. The Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology was tasked to create storm surge hazard maps for the country's coastal areas. The research project aims to generate storm surge hazard maps that can be used for disaster mitigation and planning. As part of the research, the team explored a scenario wherein a tropical cyclone hits the Metro Manila with strength as strong as Typhoon Haiyan. The area was chosen primarily for its political, economic and cultural significance as the country's capital. Using Japan Meteorological Agency Storm Surge model, FLO2D flooding software, LiDAR topographic data, and GIS technology, the effects of a Haiyan-induced tropical cyclone passing through Metro Manila was examined. The population affected, number of affected critical facilities, and potential evacuation sites were identified. The outputs of this study can be used by the authorities as basis for policies that involve disaster risk reduction and management.

StormReady in a Box: Enhancing NOAA's Presence in Schools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grondin, N. S.; Franks, C.

2015-12-01

The National Weather Service StormReady Supporter program exists to give schools, companies, TV stations, and other facilities the opportunity to earn recognition for their weather preparedness and awareness. Requirements to earn StormReady Supporter status include having a facility warning point, use of NOAA Weather Radios, and weather hazard Emergency Operation Plans. Despite the increasing importance of weather preparedness in schools, only 1.2% of Minnesota schools are deemed StormReady by the National Weather Service. It was determined that the major impedance for schools becoming StormReady Supporters is the lack of time for administrators to engage in anything "extra" beyond their listed duties. As part of a 2015 Hollings Scholar project, the StormReady in a Box concept was developed to remedy this, by empowering teachers and students to take charge and complete the StormReady Supporter application for their school. StormReady in a Box is a project developed for Junior High School students to learn about weather preparedness and to help their school acquire StormReady status. The project was designed to be relevant to the Minnesota State Education Standards in Science, be simple for teachers to do with their students, and most importantly, to be enjoyable for Junior High School age students to do. The project was also designed to enhance critical thinking skills and logical reasoning abilities, as they relate to the StormReady Supporter application. This presentation will present the overall rationale for the undertaking of this project, the creation of, and the logical next steps for the StormReady in a Box project.

75 FR 13144 - California Disaster #CA-00151

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-03-18

... declaration of a major disaster for Public Assistance Only for the State of California (FEMA- 1884-DR), dated 03/08/2010. Incident: Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Debris and Mud Flows. Incident Period: 01...

Climate Driven Life Histories: The Case of the Mediterranean Storm Petrel

PubMed Central

Soldatini, Cecilia; Albores-Barajas, Yuri Vladimir; Massa, Bruno; Gimenez, Olivier

2014-01-01

Seabirds are affected by changes in the marine ecosystem. The influence of climatic factors on marine food webs can be reflected in long-term seabird population changes. We modelled the survival and recruitment of the Mediterranean storm petrel (Hydrobates pelagicus melitensis) using a 21-year mark-recapture dataset involving almost 5000 birds. We demonstrated a strong influence of prebreeding climatic conditions on recruitment age and of rainfall and breeding period conditions on juvenile survival. The results suggest that the juvenile survival rate of the Mediterranean subspecies may not be negatively affected by the predicted features of climate change, i.e., warmer summers and lower rainfall. Based on considerations of winter conditions in different parts of the Mediterranean, we were able to draw inferences about the wintering areas of the species for the first time. PMID:24728099

NASA Sees Major Winter Storm Headed for Eastern U.S.

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

On Jan. 20 at 2:30 p.m. EST the VIIRS instrument aboard NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP captured this image of the winter storm moving through the central U.S. Credits: NASA Goddard Rapid Response The low pressure area from the Eastern Pacific Ocean moved into the western U.S. and tracked across the four corners region into Texas where NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite observed the clouds associated with the storm. The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument aboard Suomi NPP satellite captured the visible image on January 20, 2016 at 19:30 UTC (2:30 p.m. EST) when the storm was over the central U.S. In the image, snow cover is visible in the Rockies and southern Great Lakes states. VIIRS collects visible and infrared imagery and global observations of land, atmosphere, cryosphere and oceans. That low pressure system located over the south central United States on Jan. 21 is expected to track east across the Tennessee Valley and will give way to a deepening coastal low pressure area. The National Weather Service said "This latter feature takes over and becomes a dominant force in setting up heavy snow bands over the Mid-Atlantic and very gusty winds." The storm system is expected to bring an increased risk of severe weather from far southeastern Texas across southern Louisiana/Mississippi, and into the far western Florida Panhandle on Thursday, Jan. 21. That threat for severe weather will move east as the low pressure area continues heading in that direction. The National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland said "A potentially crippling winter storm is anticipated for portions of the mid-Atlantic Friday into early Saturday. Snowfall may approach two feet for some locations, including the Baltimore and Washington, D.C. metro areas. Farther north, there is uncertainty in snowfall for the New York City-to-Boston corridor. Farther south, significant icing is likely for portions of Kentucky and North Carolina." NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Drivers of Complexity in Humanitarian Operations

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-12-04

catastrophe (including any hurricane, tornado, storm, high water, wind-driven water, tidal wave, tsunami, earthquake, volcanic eruption , landslide, mudslide...shaking) Volcano Volcanic eruption General Flood Flash flood Mass movement wet Landslide Mudslide Extratropical cyclone (winter storm) Local storm Blizzard...24 1 Tornado 25 57 Volcanic   Eruption 26 0 Earthquake (Seismic Activity) 27 4 ^Åèìáëáíáçå=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=mêçÖê~ã= dê~Çì~íÉ=pÅÜççä=çÑ=_ìëáåÉëë=C=mìÄäáÅ=mçäáÅó

Major dust storms and westward traveling waves on Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Huiqun

2017-04-01

Westward traveling waves are observed during major dust storm periods in northern fall and winter. The close correlation in timing makes westward traveling wave one of the signature responses of the Martian atmosphere to major dust storms. Westward traveling waves are dominated by zonal wave number m = 1 in the middle atmosphere and are typically characterized by long wave period. They are associated with significant temperature perturbations near the edge of the north polar vortex. Their wind signals extend to the low latitudes and the southern hemisphere. Their eddy momentum and heat fluxes exhibit complex patterns on a global scale in the middle atmosphere.

Stochastic Modeling of Empirical Storm Loss in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prahl, B. F.; Rybski, D.; Kropp, J. P.; Burghoff, O.; Held, H.

2012-04-01

Based on German insurance loss data for residential property we derive storm damage functions that relate daily loss with maximum gust wind speed. Over a wide range of loss, steep power law relationships are found with spatially varying exponents ranging between approximately 8 and 12. Global correlations between parameters and socio-demographic data are employed to reduce the number of local parameters to 3. We apply a Monte Carlo approach to calculate German loss estimates including confidence bounds in daily and annual resolution. Our model reproduces the annual progression of winter storm losses and enables to estimate daily losses over a wide range of magnitude.

Observations of Total Lightning Associated with Severe Convection During the Wet Season in Central Florida

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sharp, D.; Williams, E.; Weber, M.; Goodman, Steven J.; Raghavan, R.; Matlin, A.; Boldi, B.

1998-01-01

This paper will discuss findings of a collaborative lightning research project between National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the National Weather Service office In Melbourne Florida. In August 1996, NWS/MLB received a workstation which incorporates data from the KMLB WSR-88D, Cloud to Ground (CG) stroke data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), and 3D volumetric lightning data collected from the Kennedy Space Centers' Lightning Detection And Ranging (LDAR) lightning system. The two primary objectives of this lightning workstation, called Lightning Imaging Sensor Data Applications Display (USDAD), are to: observe how total lightning relates to severe convective storm morphology over central Florida, and compare ground based total lightning data (LDAR) to a satellite based lightning detection system. This presentation will focus on objective #1. The LISDAD system continuously displays CG and total lighting activity overlaid on top of the KMLB composite reflectivity product. This allows forecasters to monitor total lightning activity associated with convective cells occurring over the central Florida peninsula and adjacent coastal waters. The LISDAD system also keeps track of the amount of total lightning data, and associated KMLB radar products with individual convective cells occurring over the region. By clicking on an individual cell, a history table displays flash rate information (CG and total lightning) in one minute increments, along with radar parameter trends (echo tops, maximum dBz and height of maximum dBz) every 5 minutes. This history table Is updated continuously, without user intervention, as long as the cell is identified. Reviewing data collected during the 1997 wet season (21 cases) revealed that storms which produced severe weather (hall greater or = 0.75 in. or wind damage) typically showed a rapid rise In total lightning prior to the onset of severe weather. On average, flash rate increases of 25 FPM per minute over a time scale of approximately 5 minutes were common. These pulse severe storms typically reached values of 150 to 200 FPM with some cells exceeding 400 FPM. One finding which could have a direct application to the warning process is that the rapid increase in lightning typically occurred in advance of the warning issuance time. Comparisons between the ending time of the rapid rate increase and the time of when the warning was issued by NWS/MLB meteorologist exhibited a lead time of 8 minutes. It is conceivable that if close monitoring of the LISDAD system by operational meteorologist is routinely performed, warnings for pulse severe storms could be issued up to 4 to 6 minutes earlier than what is issued currently.

Return periods of losses associated with European windstorm series in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karremann, Melanie K.; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Reyers, Mark; Klawa, Matthias

2015-04-01

During the last decades, several windstorm series hit Europe leading to large aggregated losses. Such storm series are examples of serial clustering of extreme cyclones, presenting a considerable risk for the insurance industry. Clustering of events and return periods of storm series affecting Europe are quantified based on potential losses using empirical models. Moreover, possible future changes of clustering and return periods of European storm series with high potential losses are quantified. Historical storm series are identified using 40 winters of NCEP reanalysis data (1973/1974 - 2012/2013). Time series of top events (1, 2 or 5 year return levels) are used to assess return periods of storm series both empirically and theoretically. Return periods of historical storm series are estimated based on the Poisson and the negative binomial distributions. Additionally, 800 winters of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 general circulation model simulations for present (SRES scenario 20C: years 1960- 2000) and future (SRES scenario A1B: years 2060- 2100) climate conditions are investigated. Clustering is identified for most countries in Europe, and estimated return periods are similar for reanalysis and present day simulations. Future changes of return periods are estimated for fixed return levels and fixed loss index thresholds. For the former, shorter return periods are found for Western Europe, but changes are small and spatially heterogeneous. For the latter, which combines the effects of clustering and event ranking shifts, shorter return periods are found everywhere except for Mediterranean countries. These changes are generally not statistically significant between recent and future climate. However, the return periods for the fixed loss index approach are mostly beyond the range of preindustrial natural climate variability. This is not true for fixed return levels. The quantification of losses associated with storm series permits a more adequate windstorm risk assessment in a changing climate.

Investigating added value of regional climate modeling in North American winter storm track simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poan, E. D.; Gachon, P.; Laprise, R.; Aider, R.; Dueymes, G.

2018-03-01

Extratropical Cyclone (EC) characteristics depend on a combination of large-scale factors and regional processes. However, the latter are considered to be poorly represented in global climate models (GCMs), partly because their resolution is too coarse. This paper describes a framework using possibilities given by regional climate models (RCMs) to gain insight into storm activity during winter over North America (NA). Recent past climate period (1981-2005) is considered to assess EC activity over NA using the NCEP regional reanalysis (NARR) as a reference, along with the European reanalysis ERA-Interim (ERAI) and two CMIP5 GCMs used to drive the Canadian Regional Climate Model—version 5 (CRCM5) and the corresponding regional-scale simulations. While ERAI and GCM simulations show basic agreement with NARR in terms of climatological storm track patterns, detailed bias analyses show that, on the one hand, ERAI presents statistically significant positive biases in terms of EC genesis and therefore occurrence while capturing their intensity fairly well. On the other hand, GCMs present large negative intensity biases in the overall NA domain and particularly over NA eastern coast. In addition, storm occurrence over the northwestern topographic regions is highly overestimated. When the CRCM5 is driven by ERAI, no significant skill deterioration arises and, more importantly, all storm characteristics near areas with marked relief and over regions with large water masses are significantly improved with respect to ERAI. Conversely, in GCM-driven simulations, the added value contributed by CRCM5 is less prominent and systematic, except over western NA areas with high topography and over the Western Atlantic coastlines where the most frequent and intense ECs are located. Despite this significant added-value on seasonal-mean characteristics, a caveat is raised on the RCM ability to handle storm temporal `seriality', as a measure of their temporal variability at a given location. In fact, the driving models induce some significant footprints on the RCM skill to reproduce the intra-seasonal pattern of storm activity.

Changes in the Winter-Time Storminess over the North Atlantic, Associated with the 1.5°C and 2°C Levels of Global Warming.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barcikowska, M. J.; Weaver, S. J.; Feser, F.; Schenk, F.

2017-12-01

This study investigates the changes in extreme winter-time weather conditions over the NH midlatitudes. These conditions are to a large degree caused by extratropical storms, often associated with very intense and hazardous precipitation and wind. Although the skill of CMIP5 models in capturing these extremes is improved when compared to the previous generations, the spatial and temporal resolution of the models still remains a primary reason for the deficiencies. Therefore, many features of the storms projected for the future remain inconsistent. Here we are using the high-res horizontal (0.25° lat x lon) and temporal (3hr) output of the HAPPI experiment. This output facilitates not only an implicit extraction of storm tracks but also an analysis of the storm intensity, in terms of their maximum wind and rainfall, at subdaily time-scales. The analysis of simulated present climate shows an improved spatial pattern of large-scale circulation over North America and Europe, as compared to the CMIP5-generation models, and consequently a reduced zonal bias in storm tracks pattern. The information provided at subdaily time scale provides much more realistic representation of the magnitude of the extremes. These advances significantly contribute to our understanding of differential climate impacts between 1.5°C and 2°C levels of global warming. The spatial pattern of the north-eastward shift of storm tracks, derived from the recent CMIP5 future projections, is remarkably refined here. For example, increasing storminess expands towards Scandinavia, and not towards the north-central Europe. Derived spatial features of the storm intensity, e.g. increase in wind and precipitation on the west coasts of both the British Isles and Scandinavia underlines the relevancy of the results for the local communities and potential climate change adaptation initiatives.

Evaluation of sources and loading of pesticides to the Sacramento River, California, USA, during a storm event of winter 2005.

PubMed

Guo, Lei; Kelley, Kevin; Goh, Kean S

2007-11-01

A monitoring study was conducted in the tributaries and main stem of the Sacramento River, California, USA, during the storm event of January 26 to February 1, 2005. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the sources and loading of pesticides in the Sacramento River watershed during the winter storm season. A total of 26 pesticides or pesticide degradates were analyzed, among which five pesticides and one triazine degradate were detected. Diuron, diazinon, and simazine were found in all streams with a total load of 110.4, 15.4, and 15.7 kg, respectively, in the Sacramento River over the single storm event. Bromacil, hexazinone, and the triazine degradate diaminochlorotriazine were only detected in two smaller drainage canals with a load ranged from 0.25 to 7 kg. The major source of pesticides detected in the main stem Sacramento River was from the most upstream subbasin, the Sacramento River above Colusa, where detected pesticides either exceeded or were close to those at the main outlet of the Sacramento River at Alamar Marina. The higher precipitation in this subbasin was partly responsible for the greater contribution of pesticides observed. Diazinon was the only pesticide with concentrations above water quality criteria, indicating that additional mitigation measures may be needed to reduce its movement to surface water.

Warming in the Nordic Seas, North Atlantic storms and thinning Arctic sea ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexeev, Vladimir A.; Walsh, John E.; Ivanov, Vladimir V.; Semenov, Vladimir A.; Smirnov, Alexander V.

2017-08-01

Arctic sea ice over the last few decades has experienced a significant decline in coverage both in summer and winter. The currently warming Atlantic Water layer has a pronounced impact on sea ice in the Nordic Seas (including the Barents Sea). More open water combined with the prevailing atmospheric pattern of airflow from the southeast, and persistent North Atlantic storms such as the recent extremely strong Storm Frank in December 2015, lead to increased energy transport to the high Arctic. Each of these storms brings sizeable anomalies of heat to the high Arctic, resulting in significant warming and slowing down of sea ice growth or even melting. Our analysis indicates that the recently observed sea ice decline in the Nordic Seas during the cold season around Svalbard, Franz Joseph Land and Novaya Zemlya, and the associated heat release from open water into the atmosphere, contributed significantly to the increase in the downward longwave radiation throughout the entire Arctic. Added to other changes in the surface energy budget, this increase since the 1960s to the present is estimated to be at least 10 W m-2, which can result in thinner (up to at least 15-20 cm) Arctic ice at the end of the winter. This change in the surface budget is an important contributing factor accelerating the thinning of Arctic sea ice.

Quantifying contributions to storm runoff through end-member mixing analysis and hydrologic measurements at the Panola Mountain research watershed (Georgia, USA)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burns, Douglas A.; McDonnell, Jeffery J.; Hooper, R.P.; Peters, N.E.; Freer, J.E.; Kendall, C.; Beven, K.

2001-01-01

The geographic sources and hydrologic flow paths of stormflow in small catchments are not well understood because of limitations in sampling methods and insufficient resolution of potential end members. To address these limitations, an extensive hydrologic dataset was collected at a 10 ha catchment at Panola Mountain research watershed near Atlanta, GA, to quantify the contribution of three geographic sources of stormflow. Samples of stream water, runoff from an outcrop, and hillslope subsurface stormflow were collected during two rainstorms in the winter of 1996, and an end-member mixing analysis model that included five solutes was developed. Runoff from the outcrop, which occupies about one-third of the catchment area, contributed 50-55% of the peak streamflow during the 2 February rainstorm, and 80-85% of the peak streamflow during the 6-7 March rainstorm; it also contributed about 50% to total streamflow during the dry winter conditions that preceded the 6-7 March storm. Riparian groundwater runoff was the largest component of stream runoff (80-100%) early during rising streamflow and throughout stream recession, and contributed about 50% to total stream runoff during the 2 February storm, which was preceded by wet winter conditions. Hillslope runoff contributed 25-30% to peak stream runoff and 15-18% to total stream runoff during both storms. The temporal response of the three runoff components showed general agreement with hydrologic measurements from the catchment during each storm. Estimates of recharge from the outcrop to the riparian aquifer that were independent of model calculations indicated that storage in the riparian aquifer could account for the volume of rain that fell on the outcrop but did not contribute to stream runoff. The results of this study generally indicate that improvements in the ability of mixing models to describe the hydrologic response accurately in forested catchments may depend on better identification, and detailed spatial and temporal characterization of the mobile waters from the principal hydrologic source areas that contribute to stream runoff. Copyright ?? 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Retrospective Observational Study of Atypical Winter Respiratory Illness Season Using Real-Time Syndromic Surveillance, England, 2014–15

PubMed Central

Morbey, Roger; Pebody, Richard G.; Hughes, Thomas C.; de Lusignan, Simon; Yeates, F. Alex; Thomas, Helen; O’Brien, Sarah J.; Smith, Gillian E.; Elliot, Alex J.

2017-01-01

During winter 2014–15, England experienced severe strains on acute health services. We investigated whether syndromic surveillance could contribute to understanding of the unusually high level of healthcare needs. We compared trends for several respiratory syndromic indicators from that winter to historical baselines. Cumulative and mean incidence rates were compared by winter and age group. All-age influenza-like illness was at expected levels; however, severe asthma and pneumonia levels were above those expected. Across several respiratory indicators, cumulative incidence rates during 2014–15 were similar to those of previous years, but higher for older persons; we saw increased rates of acute respiratory disease, including influenza like illness, severe asthma, and pneumonia, in the 65–74- and >75-year age groups. Age group–specific statistical algorithms may provide insights into the burden on health services and improve early warning in future winters. PMID:29048277

Climate scenarios for California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cayan, Daniel R.; Maurer, Ed; Dettinger, Mike; Tyree, Mary; Hayhoe, Katharine; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, Phil; Santer, Ben

2006-01-01

In all of the simulations, most precipitation continues to occur in winter, with virtually all derived from North Pacific winter storms. Relatively little change in overall precipitation is projected. Climate warming has a profound influence in diminishing snow accumulations, because there is more rain and less snow, and earlier snowmelt. These snow losses increase as the warming increases, so that they are most severe under climate changes projected by the more sensitive model with the higher GHG emissions.

A Climatological Oil Spill Planning Guide. Number 2. Gulf of Maine/Georges Bank,

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-06-01

95 73 Shellfish Distribution: Surf clams and soft clams . . . . . 97 74 Shellfish Distribution: Ocean Quahogs and hard clams . . . . 98 75...have been included in the analysis. - 96 - 716 709 69’ No’ 670 No’ ILI Surf Clam Distribution ..... 45’ * Soft Clam Majo Concontraitln45 44 44’ N..w...18 7 Prevailing winter and summer pressure patterns in the North Atlantic . . . . . . .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 8 Storm tracks, winter

76 FR 5856 - California Disaster #CA-00164

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-02-02

... declaration of a major disaster for Public Assistance Only for the State of California (FEMA- 1952-DR), dated 01/26/2011. Incident: Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Debris and Mud Flows Incident Period: 12/17...

Pathogen and nutrient pulsing and attenuation in "accidental" urban wetland networks along the Salt River in Phoenix, AZ

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palta, M. M.; Grimm, N. B.

2013-12-01

Increases in available nutrients and bacteria in urban streams are at the forefront of research concerns within the ecological and medical communities, and both pollutants are expected to become more problematic under projected changes in climate. Season, discharge, instream conditions (oxygen, water velocity), and weather conditions (antecedent moisture) all may influence loading rates to and the retention capabilities of wetlands fed by urban runoff and storm flow. The aim of this research was to examine the effect of these variables on nutrient (nitrogen, phosphorus) and Escherichia coli (E. coli) loading and attenuation along flow paths in urban wetland networks along the Salt River in Phoenix, AZ. Samples were collected for one year along flowpaths through wetlands that formed below six perennially flowing outfalls. Collection took place monthly during baseflow (dry season) conditions, and before and immediately following storm events, in the summer monsoon and winter rainy seasons. Water quality was assessed at the following points: immediately downstream of the outfall, mid-wetland, and downstream of the wetland. For determination of E. coli counts, samples were plated on coliform-selective media (Chromocult) and incubated for 24 hours. Plates were then used to enumerate E. coli. For determination of nutrient concentrations, samples were filtered and frozen until they could be analyzed by ion chromatography and automated wet chemistry. During both summer and winter, total discharge into the wetlands increased during storm events. Concentrations of PO43+, NH4+, and E. coli were significantly higher following storm events than during baseflow conditions, and post-storm peaks in concentration ('pulses') were higher during the summer monsoon than in winter storms. Pulses of pollutants during storms were highest when preceded by hot, dry conditions. NO3- was high in both base and stormflow. E. coli counts and nutrient concentrations dropped along flowpaths through the wetlands, indicating high attenuation capability even during storms. Attenuation of nutrients during baseflow appeared to be a function of microbial processing, while during stormflow, when water retention time in the wetlands was reduced, attenuation was likely explained by other factors, such as sediment adsorption. Potential tradeoffs emerged between removal of NO3- (highest under low dissolved oxygen) and E. coli (highest under high dissolved oxygen) during baseflow. Climate change models project increases in severe droughts and extreme precipitation events for the southwestern United States, which can lead to more sewage leakages and increases in contaminated runoff from impervious surfaces in urban areas. Wetlands are constructed or restored to mitigate microbial contamination of wastewater. Our research indicates that even "accidental" urban wetlands can serve to reduce downstream transport of nutrients and pathogens in storm and wastewater. However, wetland restoration or design targeting increased water retention time may increase the capability of accidental wetlands in this urban desert river channel to remove nutrients and pathogens from stormwater.

Typhoon Chan-Hom "Eyes" NASA's Aqua Satellite

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

Typhoon Chan-Hom's eye was visible from space when NASA's Aqua satellite passed overhead early on July 8, 2015. The MODIS instrument, known as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer, flies aboard NASA's Aqua satellite. When Aqua passed over Typhoon Chan-Hom on July 8 at 04:25 UTC (12:25 a.m. EDT), MODIS captured a visible-light image of the storm that clearly showed its eye. The MODIS image also a ring of powerful thunderstorms surrounding the eye of the storm, and the bulk of thunderstorms wrapping around the system from west to east, along the southern side. At 0900 UTC (5 a.m. EDT), Typhoon Chan-Hom's maximum sustained winds were near 85 knots (97.8 mph/157.4 kph). Tropical-storm-force winds extended 145 nautical miles (166.9 miles/268.5 km) from the center, making the storm almost 300 nautical miles (345 miles/555 km) in diameter. Typhoon-force winds extended out to 35 nautical miles (40 miles/64.8 km) from the center. Chan-Hom's eye was centered near 20.5 North latitude and 132.7 East longitude, about 450 nautical miles (517.9 miles/833.4 km) southeast of Kadena Air Base, Iwo To, Japan. Chan-Hom was moving to the northwest at 11 knots (12.6 mph/20.3 kph). The typhoon was generating very rough seas with wave heights to 28 feet (8.5 meters). The Joint Typhoon Warning Center expects Chan-Hom to continue tracking northwestward over the next three days under the steering influence of a sub-tropical ridge (elongated area of high pressure). Chan-Hom is expected to intensify steadily peaking at 120 knots (138.1 mph/222.2 kph) on July 10. The JTWC forecast predicts that Chan-Hom will make landfall near Wenzhou, Zhejiang, China and begin decaying due to land interaction. For updated warnings and watches from China's National Meteorological Centre, visit: www.cma.gov.cn/en/WeatherWarnings/. Credit: NASA/GSFC/Jeff Schmaltz/MODIS Land Rapid Response Team b>NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

After the Storm: Starting Over with One to One

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

House, Traci

2013-01-01

The costliest tornado in U.S. history descended without warning on the small community of Joplin, Missouri, USA, on May 22, 2011. People across the country watched the devastation on TV and YouTube. But the thousands of students and staff of Joplin School District lived through it. Recognizing the need to restore normalcy throughout the community,…

The use of LANDSAT DCS and imagery in reservoir management and operation. [New England

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cooper, S. (Principal Investigator)

1976-01-01

The author has identified the following signifcant results. From real time data, an intense storm with temperatures in the mid fifties was seen moving through New England. Approximately $33 million in damages were prevented because of the advance warning, and no damage was incurred in northern Maine as a result.

15 CFR 200.107 - WWV-WWVH-WWVB broadcasts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

..., and 20, MHz (WWV) and 2.5, 5, 10, and 15 MHz (WWVH); (2) standard time signals; (3) time intervals; (4...) Omega Navigation System status reports; (9) geophysical alerts; and (10) marine storm warnings. NIST... correction is “plus” 0.3 second. If the ninth, 10th, 11th, and 12th ticks are doubled, the correction is...

15 CFR 200.107 - WWV-WWVH-WWVB broadcasts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

..., and 20, MHz (WWV) and 2.5, 5, 10, and 15 MHz (WWVH); (2) standard time signals; (3) time intervals; (4...) Omega Navigation System status reports; (9) geophysical alerts; and (10) marine storm warnings. NIST... correction is “plus” 0.3 second. If the ninth, 10th, 11th, and 12th ticks are doubled, the correction is...

15 CFR 200.107 - WWV-WWVH-WWVB broadcasts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

..., and 20, MHz (WWV) and 2.5, 5, 10, and 15 MHz (WWVH); (2) standard time signals; (3) time intervals; (4...) Omega Navigation System status reports; (9) geophysical alerts; and (10) marine storm warnings. NIST... correction is “plus” 0.3 second. If the ninth, 10th, 11th, and 12th ticks are doubled, the correction is...

15 CFR 200.107 - WWV-WWVH-WWVB broadcasts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

..., and 20, MHz (WWV) and 2.5, 5, 10, and 15 MHz (WWVH); (2) standard time signals; (3) time intervals; (4...) Omega Navigation System status reports; (9) geophysical alerts; and (10) marine storm warnings. NIST... correction is “plus” 0.3 second. If the ninth, 10th, 11th, and 12th ticks are doubled, the correction is...

15 CFR 200.107 - WWV-WWVH-WWVB broadcasts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

..., and 20, MHz (WWV) and 2.5, 5, 10, and 15 MHz (WWVH); (2) standard time signals; (3) time intervals; (4...) Omega Navigation System status reports; (9) geophysical alerts; and (10) marine storm warnings. NIST... correction is “plus” 0.3 second. If the ninth, 10th, 11th, and 12th ticks are doubled, the correction is...

Incorporating the Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS) Into a Regional Air Quality Modeling System for the Pacific Northwest

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In the Pacific Northwest, wind storms intermittently cause massive dust events that reduce visibility along roadways and jeopardize health as a result of extremely high concentrations of PM10 (particulate matter less than or equal to 10µm in diameter). An early warning dust forecast system is needed...

Factors That Support Women in Being Successful in Engineering Professions: Identity as a Lens

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lewinter, Jane Marincic

2013-01-01

Engineering has traditionally been and continues to be a male dominated profession. The National Academies' "Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing America for a Brighter Future (2005)" warns that in the long run, the United States might not have enough scientists and engineers to meet its national goals unless the number of…

The Goes-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodman, Steven J.; Blakeslee, Richard J.; Koshak, William J.; Mach, Douglas

2011-01-01

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) is the next series to follow the existing GOES system currently operating over the Western Hemisphere. Superior spacecraft and instrument technology will support expanded detection of environmental phenomena, resulting in more timely and accurate forecasts and warnings. Advancements over current GOES capabilities include a new capability for total lightning detection (cloud and cloud-to-ground flashes) from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), and improved storm diagnostic capability with the Advanced Baseline Imager. The GLM will map total lightning activity (in-cloud and cloud-to-ground lighting flashes) continuously day and night with near-uniform spatial resolution of 8 km with a product refresh rate of less than 20 sec over the Americas and adjacent oceanic regions. This will aid in forecasting severe storms and tornado activity, and convective weather impacts on aviation safety and efficiency. In parallel with the instrument development, a GOES-R Risk Reduction Team and Algorithm Working Group Lightning Applications Team have begun to develop the Level 2 algorithms, cal/val performance monitoring tools, and new applications. Proxy total lightning data from the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and regional test beds are being used to develop the pre-launch algorithms and applications, and also improve our knowledge of thunderstorm initiation and evolution. In this paper we will report on new Nowcasting and storm warning applications being developed and evaluated at various NOAA Testbeds.

Global Lightning Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christian, Hugh

2003-01-01

Our knowledge of the global distribution of lightning has improved dramatically since the 1995 launch of the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) followed in 1997 by the launch of the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS). Together, these instruments have generated a continuous seven-year record of global lightning activity. These lightning observations have provided a new global perspective on total lightning activity. For the first time, total lightning activity (CG and IC) has been observed over large regions with high detection efficiencies and accurate geographic location. This has produced new insights into lightning distributions, times of occurrence and variability. It has produced a revised global flash rate estimate (46 flashes per second) and has lead to a new realization of the significance of total lightning activity in severe weather. Accurate flash rate estimates are now available for large areas of the earth (+/- 72deg latitude) Ocean-land contrasts as a function of season are clearly revealed, as are orographic effects and seasonal and interannual variability. The data set indicates that air mass thunderstorms, not large storm systems dominate global activity. The ability of LIS and OTD to detect total lightning has lead to improved insight into the correlation between lightning and storm development. The relationship between updraft development and lightning activity is now well established and presents an opportunity for providing a new mechanism for remotely monitoring storm development. In this concept, lightning would serve as a surrogate for updraft velocity. It is anticipated hat this capability could lead to significantly improved severe weather warning times and reduced false warning rates.

Using large scale surveys to investigate seasonal variations in seabird distribution and abundance. Part I: The North Western Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pettex, Emeline; David, Léa; Authier, Matthieu; Blanck, Aurélie; Dorémus, Ghislain; Falchetto, Hélène; Laran, Sophie; Monestiez, Pascal; Van Canneyt, Olivier; Virgili, Auriane; Ridoux, Vincent

2017-07-01

Scientific investigation in offshore areas are logistically challenging and expensive, therefore the available knowledge on seabird at sea distribution and abundance, as well as their seasonal variations, remains limited. To investigate the seasonal variability in seabird distribution and abundance in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea (NWMS), we conducted two large-scale aerial surveys in winter 2011-12 and summer 2012, covering a 181,400 km2 area. Following a strip-transect method, observers recorded a total of 4141 seabird sightings in winter and 2334 in summer, along 32,213 km. Using geostatistical methods, we generated sightings density maps for both seasons, as well as estimates of density and abundance. Most taxa showed seasonal variations in their density and distribution patterns, as they used the area either for wintering or for breeding. Highest densities of seabirds were recorded during winter, although large-sized shearwaters, storm petrels and terns were more abundant during summer. Consequently, with nearly 170,000 seabirds estimated in winter, the total abundance was twice higher in winter. Coastal waters of the continental shelf were generally more exploited by seabirds, even though some species, such as Mediterranean gulls, black-headed gulls, little gulls and storm petrels were found at high densities in highly offshore waters. Our results revealed areas highly exploited by the seabird community in the NWMS, such as the Gulf of Lion, the Tuscan region, and the area between Corsica and Sardinia. In addition, these large-scale surveys provide a baseline for the monitoring of seabird at sea distribution, and could inform the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive.

Interannual variability of global dust storms on Mars.

PubMed

Haberle, R M

1986-10-24

Global dust storms on Mars occur in some years but not in others. If the four Mars years of Viking data are representative, some distinguishing characteristics can be inferred. In years with global dust storms, dust is raised in the southern hemisphere and spread over much of the planet by an intensified Hadley circulation. In years without global dust storms, dust is raised in the northern hemisphere by relatively active mid-latitude storm systems but does not spread globally. In both cases the dusty season is winter in the north. Assuming that the cross-equatorial Hadley circulation plays a key role in the onset of global dust storms, it is shown from numerical simulations that a northen hemisphere dust haze weakens its intensity and, hence, its contribution to the surface stress in the southern hemisphere. This, in turn, reduces the possibility of global dust storm development. The interannual variability is therefore the result either of a competition between circulations in opposite hemispheres, in which case the variability has a random component, or it is the result of the cycling of dust between hemispheres, in which case the variability is related to the characteristics of global dust storms themselves.

Snow in Time for the Solstice

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2004-01-01

In mid-December, the weather in eastern North America cooperated with the calendar, and a wintry blast from the Arctic delivered freezing cold air, blustery winds, and snow just in time for the Winter Solstice on December 21' the Northern Hemisphere's longest night of the year and the official start of winter. This image was captured by the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) on December 20, 2004, the day after an Arctic storm dove down into the United States, bringing snow to New England (upper right of top image); the coastal mid-Atlantic, including Washington, D.C.; and the southern Appalachian Mountains in Tennessee and North Carolina. Over the Atlantic Ocean (image right), the fierce Arctic winds were raking the clouds into rows, like a gardener getting ready to plant the seeds of winter. The detailed close-up at the bottom of this image pair shows the cloud and snow patterns around Lake Ontario, illustrating the occurrence of 'lake-effect snow.' Areas in western upstate New York often get as much as fifteen feet or more of snow each year as cold air from Canada and the Arctic sweeps down over the relatively warm waters of Lakes Ontario and Erie. Cold air plus moisture from the lakes equals heavy snow. Since the wind generally blows from west to east, it is the 'downwind' cities like Buffalo and Rochester that receive the heaping helpings of snowfall, while cities on the upwind side of the lake, such as Toronto, receive much less. Unlike storms that begin with specific low-pressure systems in the Pacific Ocean and march eastward across the Pacific Northwest, the Rockies, the Great Plains, and sometimes the East, the lake-effect snows aren't tied to a specific atmospheric disturbance. They are more a function of geography, which means that the lakes can keep fueling snow storms for as long as they remain ice-free in early winter, as well as when they begin to thaw in late winter and early spring. Image courtesy the SeaWiFS Project, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, and ORBIMAGE.

PREFACE: WMO/GEO Expert Meeting On An International Sand And Dust Storm Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez, C.; Baldasano, J. M.

2009-03-01

This volume of IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science presents a selection of papers that were given at the WMO/GEO Expert Meeting on an International Sand and Dust Storm Warning System hosted by the Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputación in Barcelona (Spain) on 7-9 November 2007 (http://www.bsc.es/wmo). A sand and dust storm (SDS) is a meteorological phenomenon common in arid and semi-arid regions and arises when a gust front passes or when the wind force exceeds the threshold value where loose sand and dust are removed from the dry surface. After aeolian uptake, SDS reduce visibility to a few meters in and near source regions, and dust plumes are transported over distances as long as thousands of kilometres. Aeolian dust is unique among aerosol phenomena: (1) with the possible exception of sea-salt aerosol, it is globally the most abundant of all aerosol species, (2) it appears as the dominating component of atmospheric aerosol over large areas of the Earth, (3) it represents a serious hazard for life, health, property, environment and economy (occasionally reaching the grade of disaster or catastrophic event) and (4) its influence, impacts, complex interactions and feedbacks within the Earth System span a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. From a political and societal point of view, the concern for SDS and the need for international cooperation were reflected after a survey conducted in 2005 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in which more than forty WMO Member countries expressed their interest for creating or improving capacities for SDS warning advisory and assessment. In this context, recent major advances in research - including, for example, the development and implementation of advanced observing systems, the theoretical understanding of the mechanisms responsible for sand and dust storm generation and the development of global and regional dust models - represent the basis for developing applications focusing on societal benefit and risk reduction. However, at present there are interdisciplinary research challenges to overwhelm current uncertainties in order to reach full potential. Furthermore, the community of practice for SDS observations, forecasts and analyses is mainly scientifically based and rather disconnected from potential users. This requires the development of interfaces with operational communities at international and national levels, strongly focusing on the needs of people and factors at risk. The WMO has taken the lead with international partners to develop and implement a Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System (SDS-WAS). The history of the WMO SDS-WAS development is as follows. On 12-14 September 2004, an International Symposium on Sand and Dust Storms was held in Beijing at the China Meteorological Agency followed by a WMO Experts Workshop on Sand and Dust Storms. The recommendations of that workshop led to a proposal to create a WMO Sand and Dust Storm Project coordinated jointly with the Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW). This was approved by the steering body of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) in 2005. Responding to a WMO survey conducted in 2005, more than forty WMO Member countries expressed interest in participating in activities to improve capacities for more reliable sand and dust storm monitoring, forecasting and assessment. On 31 October to 1 November 2006 in Shanghai, the steering committee of the Sand and Dust Storm Project proposed the development and implementation of a Sand and Dust Storm Warning, Advisory and Assessment System (SDS-WAS). The WMO Secretariat in Geneva formed an ad-hoc Internal Group on SDS-WAS consisting of scientific officers representing WMO research, observations, operational prediction, service delivery and applications programmes such as aviation and agriculture. In May 2007, the 14th WMO Congress endorsed the launching of the SDS-WAS. It also welcomed the strong support of Spain to host a regional centre for the European/African/Middle East node of SDS-WAS and to play a lead role in implementation. In August 2007, the Korean Meteorological Administration hosted the 2nd International Workshop on Sand and Dust Storms highlighting Korean SDS-WAS activities as well as those of Asian regional partners. From 7-9 November 2007, Spain hosted the WMO/GEO Expert Meeting on SDS-WAS at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center. This consultation meeting brought 100 international experts together from research, observation, forecasting and user countries especially in Africa and the Middle East to discuss the way forward in SDS-WAS implementation. The general objective of the WMO/GEO Expert Meeting on an International Sand and Dust Storm Warning System was to discuss and recommend actions needed to develop a global routine SDS-WAS based on integrating numerical SDS prediction and observing systems, and on establishing effective cooperation between data producers and user communities in order to provide SDS-WAS products capable of contributing to the reduction of risks from SDS. The specific objectives were: to identify, present and suggest future real-time observations for forecast verification and dust surveillance: satellite, ground-based remote sensing (passive and active) and in-situ monitoring to present ongoing forecasting activities to discuss and identify user needs: health, air quality, air transport operations, ocean, and others to identify and discuss dust research issues relevant for operational forecast applications to present the concept of SDS-WAS and Regional Centers The meeting was organised around invited presentations and discussions on observations, modelling and users of the SDS-WAS. C Pérez and J M Baldasano Editors INTERNATIONAL STEERING COMMITTEE José María Baldasano (Chairman) - Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Spain Emilio Cuevas - Instituto Nacional de Meteorología, Spain Leonard A Barrie - World Meteorological Organisation, Switzerland Young J Kim - Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology, Korea Menas Kafatos - George Mason University, USA Xiaoye Zhang - Chinese Meteorology Administration, China Slobodan Nickovic - World Meteorological Organisation, Switzerland Carlos Pérez - Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Spain William A Sprigg - University of Arizona, USA Stéphane Alfaro - Université de Paris Val de Marne, France Ina Tegen - Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research, Germany Mohamed Mahmoud Eissa - Under-secretary of State for Researches, Egypt Sunling Gong - Environment Canada, Canada Emily Firth - GEO Secretariat, Switzerland LOCAL ORGANISING COMMITTEE José María Baldasano - Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Spain Carlos Pérez - Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Spain Renata Giménez - Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Spain Emilio Cuevas - Instituto Nacional de Meteorología, Spain Slobodan Nickovic - World Meteorological Organisation, Switzerland J M Marcos - Instituto Nacional de Meteorología, Spain Manuel Palomares - Instituto Nacional de Meteorología, Spain Xavier Querol - Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Spain Conference photograph

Iowa's cooperative snow fence program.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2005-06-01

While we cant keep it from blowing, there are ways to influence the wind that carries tons : of blowing and drifting snow. Periodically, severe winter storms will create large snow : drifts that close roads and driveways, isolate farmsteads and in...

Development of chloride reduction training.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-04-01

The purpose of this project was to create a training program that could be used for Illinois Department of : Transportation (IDOT) personnel who operated snow plows and spread road salt during winter storms. : The training message was built around th...

U.S. Navy Regional Climatic Study of the Barents Sea and Adjacent Waters

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-09-01

westerlies associated with migratory extratropical cyclones originating west of the Area and moving through the Area along the Arctic front. Continental...long continuous storms . Fgge.3 shows the mean sea-level pressure distribution in January and July for the area 30-80N, 20W-9OE. vii Vk Vr b z b 1...extends in a northeasterly direction from the deep semi-permanent Icelandic tow south of Iceland across the Barents Sea and beyond. Winter storms

Winter Storm Continues Across Central U.S.

NASA Image and Video Library

2013-12-06

The powerful winter storm that has been affecting much of the central and western U.S. continues to intensify as it moves into Canada. Snow is tapering off across the Upper Midwest, but heavy snow is possible on Thursday from the Ohio Valley to the mid-Mississippi Valley, with heavy rain possible from the central Appalachians to the lower Mississippi Valley. Freezing rain is possible from Texas to the Ohio Valley. This image was taken by GOES East at 1745Z on December 5, 2013. Credit: NOAA/NASA GOES Project Caption: NOAA NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

ERICA plans for winter storms field study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hadlock, Ron

The Experiment on Rapidly Intensifying Cyclones over the Atlantic (ERICA) field study will be conducted between December 1, 1988, and February 28, 1989. The oceanic area that is approximately bounded by t he Gulf Stream and North America, from coastal Carolina to just east of Newfoundland, will be the region for special observations obtained by recently developed measurement systems, including high-resolution and safe Loran-C dropwindsondes, CLASS rawinsondes, an array of drifting data buoys, and multiple airborne Doppler radars. The special observations will be acquired within a framework of all conventional operational data available for the eastern United States and Canada, including that from the National Weather Service's land sites (plus supplemental rawinsonde observations), ocean platforms, U.S. Air Force WC-130 National Winter Storms Operations Plan reconnaissance flights, and civilian and military weather satellites. Satellite imagery and soundings willl be available in real time and archived through facilities of NOAA and the military.

Rippled scour depressions on the inner continental shelf off central California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cacchione, David A.; Drake, David E.; Grant, William D.; Tate, George B.

1984-01-01

Side-scan sonar records taken during the recent Coastal Ocean Dynamics Experiment (CODE) show elongate, shore-normal tippled depressions of low relief on the inner continental shelf off central California between Bodega Bay and Point Arena. These features extend up to 2 kin from the coast into water depths of up to 65 m. The proposed mechanism for their generation is storm- generated bottom currents associated with coastal downwelling during the late fall and winter which scour the surficial fine-sand sediment and expose the coarser-sand substrate in the depressions. The zones of most intense erosion and the irregular spacing of the features may be controlled by submerged rock ledges and other prominent coastal features. The large straight-crested ripples within the depres- sions (heights to 40 cm; wavelengths to 1.7 m) are probably formed by large-amplitude, long-period surface waves generated by winter storms.

Large Enhancements in the O/N2 Ratio in the Evening Sector of the Winter Hemisphere During Geomagnetic Storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burns, A. G.; Killeen, T. L.; Carignan, G. R.; Roble, R. G.

1995-01-01

In this paper, we have looked for enhancements of the O/N2 ratio in data measured by the Dynamics Explorer 2 (DE 2) satellite in the middle latitudes of the winter hemisphere, based on a prediction that was made by the National Center for Atmospheric Research thermosphere/tonosphere general circulation model (NCAR-TIGCM) that such increases occur. The NCAR-TIGCM predicts that these enhancements should be seen throughout the low latitude region and in many middle latitude locations, but that the enhancements in O/N2 are particularly strong in the middle-latitude, evening-to-midnight sector of the winter hemisphere. When this prediction was used to look for these effects in DE 2 NACS (neutral atmosphere composition spectrometer) data, large enhancements in the O/N2 ratio (approx. 50 to 90%) were seen. These enhancements were observed during the main phase of a storm that occurred on November 24, 1982, and were seen in the same region of the winter hemisphere predicted by the NCAR-TIGCM. They are partially the result of the depletion of N2 and, as electron loss is dependent on dissociative recombination at F(sub 2) altitudes, they have implications for electron densities in this area. Parcel trajectories, which have been followed through the NCAR-TIGCM history file for this event, show that large O/N2 enhancements occur in this limited region in the winter hemisphere for two reasons. First, these parcels of air are decelerated by the antisunward edge of the ion convection pattern; individual parcels converge and subsidence occurs. Thus molecular-nitrogen-poor air is brought from higher to lower heights. Because neutral parcels that are found a little poleward of the equatorial edge of the eveningside convection pattern are swept inward toward the center of the auroral oval, the enhancements occur only in a very limited range of latitudes. Second, nitrogen-poor air is transported from regions close to the magnetic pole in the winter hemisphere. During geomagnetic storms, enhanced meridional winds are driven by the increased pressure-gradient force that is associated with intensified Joule heating in the auroral oval. These pressure-driven winds decrease rapidly on the dayside beyond the auroral oval where the parcels originate, limiting the region into which the parcels can be transported. Thus these two processes drive values of O/N2 in a limited region of the winter hemisphere, and reinforce only in the evening sector, causing large changes in this region.

Arctic Storms and Their Influence on Surface Climate in the Chukchi-Beaufort Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Y.; Zhang, X.; Rinke, A.; Zhang, J.

2017-12-01

Increases in the frequency and intensity of Arctic storms and resulting weather hazards may endanger the offshore environment, coastal community, and energy infrastructure in the Arctic as sea ice retreats. Advancing ability to identify fine-scale variations in surface climate produced by progressively stronger storm would be extremely helpful to resources management and sustainable development for coastal community. In this study, we analyzed the storms and their impacts on surface climate over the Beaufort-Chukchi seas by employing the date sets from both the hindcast simulations of the coupled Arctic regional climate model HIRHAM-NAOSIM and the recently developed Chukchi-Beaufort High-resolution Atmospheric Reanalysis (CBHAR). Based on the characteristics of spatial pattern and temporal variability of the Arctic storm activity, we categorized storms to three groups with their different origins: the East Siberia Sea, Alaska and the central Arctic Ocean. The storms originating from the central Arctic Ocean have the strongest intensity in winter with relatively less storm number. Storms traveling from Alaska to the Beaufort Sea most frequently occurred in autumn with weaker intensity. A large portion of storms originated from the East Siberia Sea region in summer. Further statistical analysis suggests that increase in surface air temperature and wind speed could be attributed to the increased frequency of storm occurrence in autumn (September to November) along the continental shelf in the Beaufort Sea.

Monitoring Regional Forest Disturbances across the US with Near Real Time MODIS NDVI Products included in the ForWarn Forest Threat Early Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spruce, J.; Hargrove, W. W.; Gasser, J.; Norman, S. P.

2013-12-01

Forest threats across the US have become increasingly evident in recent years. These include regionally extensive disturbances (e.g., from drought, bark beetle outbreaks, and wildfires) that can occur across multiyear durations and result in extensive forest mortality. In addition, forests can be subject to ephemeral, sometimes yearly defoliation from various insects and types of storm damage. After prolonged severe disturbance, signs of forest recovery can vary in terms of satellite-based Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values. The increased extent and threat of forest disturbances in part led to the enactment of the 2003 Healthy Forest Restoration Act, which mandated that a national forest threat Early Warning System (EWS) be deployed. In response, the US Forest Service collaborated with NASA, DOE Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and the USGS Eros Data Center to build the near real time ForWarn forest threat EWS for monitoring regionally evident forest disturbances, starting on-line operations in 2010. Given the diversity of disturbance types, severities, and durations, ForWarn employs multiple historical baselines used with current NDVI to derive a suite of six nationwide 'weekly' forest change products. ForWarn uses daily 232 meter MODIS Aqua and Terra satellite NDVI data, including MOD13 products for deriving historical baseline NDVIs and eMODIS products for compiling current NDVI. Separately pre-processing the current and historical NDVIs, the Time Series Product Tool and the Phenological Parameters Estimation Tool are used to temporally reduce noise, fuse, and aggregate MODIS NDVIs into 24 day composites refreshed every 8 days with 46 dates of forest change products per year. The 24 day compositing interval typically enables new disturbances to be detected, while minimizing the frequency of residual atmospheric contamination. ForWarn's three standard forest change products compare current NDVI to that from the previous year, previous 3 years, and all previous years since 2000. Other forest change products added in 2013 include one for quicker disturbance detection and two others that adjust for seasonal fluctuations in normal vegetation phenology. This product suite and ForWarn's geospatial data viewer allow end users to view and assess disturbance dynamics for many regionally evident biotic and abiotic forest disturbances throughout a given current year. ForWarn's change products are also being used for forest change trend analysis and for developing regional forest overstory mortality products. They are used to alert forest health specialists about new regional forest disturbances. Such alerts also typically consider available Landsat, aerial, and ground data as well as communications with forest health specialists and previous experience. ForWarn products have been used to detect and track many types of regional disturbances for multiple forest types, including defoliation from caterpillars and severe storms, as well as mortality from both biotic and abiotic agents (e.g., bark beetles, drought, fire, anthropogenic clearing). ForWarn provides forest change products that could be combined with other geospatial data on forest biomass to help assess forest disturbance carbon impacts within the conterminous US.

Coherence of river and ocean conditions along the US West Coast during storms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kniskern, T.A.; Warrick, J.A.; Farnsworth, K.L.; Wheatcroft, R.A.; Goni, M.A.

2011-01-01

The majority of water and sediment discharge from the small, mountainous watersheds of the US West Coast occurs during and immediately following winter storms. The physical conditions (waves, currents, and winds) within and acting upon the proximal coastal ocean during these winter storms strongly influence dispersal patterns. We examined this river-ocean temporal coherence for four coastal river-shelf systems of the US West Coast (Umpqua, Eel, Salinas, and Santa Clara) to evaluate whether specific ocean conditions occur during floods that may influence coastal dispersal of sediment. Eleven years of corresponding river discharge, wind, and wave data were obtained for each river-shelf system from USGS and NOAA historical records, and each record was evaluated for seasonal and event-based patterns. Because near-bed shear stresses due to waves influence sediment resuspension and transport, we used spectral wave data to compute and evaluate wave-generated bottom-orbital velocities. The highest values of wave energy and discharge for all four systems were consistently observed between October 15 and March 15, and there were strong latitudinal patterns observed in these data with lower discharge and wave energies in the southernmost systems. During floods we observed patterns of river-ocean coherence that differed from the overall seasonal patterns. For example, downwelling winds generally prevailed during floods in the northern two systems (Umpqua and Eel), whereas winds in the southern systems (Salinas and Santa Clara) were generally downwelling before peak discharge and upwelling after peak discharge. Winds not associated with floods were generally upwelling on all four river-shelf systems. Although there are seasonal variations in river-ocean coherence, waves generally led floods in the three northern systems, while they lagged floods in the Santa Clara. Combined, these observations suggest that there are consistent river-ocean coherence patterns along the US West Coast during winter storms and that these patterns vary substantially with latitude. These results should assist with future evaluations of flood plume formation and sediment fate along this coast. ?? 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

Analysis of Storm Surge in Hong Kong

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kao, W. H.

2017-12-01

A storm surge is a type of coastal flood that is caused by low-pressure systems such as tropical cyclones. Storm surges caused by tropical cyclones can be very powerful and damaging, as they can flood coastal areas, and even destroy infrastructure in serious cases. Some serious cases of storm surges leading to more than thousands of deaths include Hurricane Katrina (2005) in New Orleans and Typhoon Haiyan (2013) in Philippines. Hong Kong is a coastal city that is prone to tropical cyclones, having an average of 5-6 tropical cyclones entering 500km range of Hong Kong per year. Storm surges have seriously damaged Hong Kong in the past, causing more than 100 deaths by Typhoon Wanda (1962), and leading to serious damage to Tai O and Cheung Chau by Typhoon Hagupit (2008). To prevent economic damage and casualties from storm surges, accurately predicting the height of storm surges and giving timely warnings to citizens is very important. In this project, I will be analyzing how different factors affect the height of storm surge, mainly using data from Hong Kong. These factors include the windspeed in Hong Kong, the atmospheric pressure in Hong Kong, the moon phase, the wind direction, the intensity of the tropical cyclone, distance between the tropical cyclone and Hong Kong, the direction of the tropical cyclone relative to Hong Kong, the speed of movement of the tropical cyclone and more. My findings will also be compared with cases from other places, to see if my findings also apply for other places.

Evaluation of radar rainfall estimates and nowcasts to prevent flash flood in real time by using a road submersion warning tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Versini, Pierre-Antoine; Sempere-Torres, Daniel

2010-05-01

Important damages occur in small headwater catchments when they are hit by severe storms with complex spatio-temporal structure, sometimes resulting in flash floods. As these catchments are mostly not covered by sensor networks, it is difficult to forecast these floods. This is particularly true for road submersions. These are major concerns for flood event managers. The use of Quantitative Precipitation Estimates and Forecasts (QPE/QPF) especially based on radar measurements could particularly be adequate to evaluate rainfall-induced risks. Although their characteristic time and space scales would make them suitable for flash flood modelling, the impact of their uncertainties remain uncertain and have to be evaluated. The Gard region (France) has been chosen as case study. This area is frequently affected by severe flash floods and different kinds of rainfall observations are available in real time: radar rainfall estimates and nowcasts from METEO FRANCE and the CALAMAR system from SPC (state authority in charge of flood forecasting). An application devoted to the road network, has also been recently developed for this region. It combines distributed hydro-meteorological very short range forecasts and vulnerability analysis to provide warnings of road submersions. The first results demonstrate that it is technically possible to provide distributed short-term forecasts for a large number of sites. The study also demonstrates that a reliable estimation of the spatial distribution of rainfall is essential. For this reason, the road submersion warning system can be used to evaluate the quality of rainfall estimates and nowcasts. The warning system has been tested on the specific storm of the 29-30 September 2007. During this event, more than 300mm dropped on the South part of the Gard and many roads were submerged. Each of the mentioned rainfall datasets (i.e. estimates and nowcasts) was available in real time. They have been used to forecast the exact location of road submersions and the results have been compared to the effective road submersions actually occurred during the event as listed by the emergency services. The results confirm that the road submersion warning system represents a promising tool for anticipating and quantifying the consequences of storm events at ground. It rates the submersion risk with an acceptable level of accuracy and a reasonable false alarm ratio. It demonstrates also the quality of high spatial and temporal resolution radar rainfall data in real time, and the possibility to use them despite their uncertainties. However because of the quality of rainfall nowcasts falls drastically with time, it is not often sufficient to provide valuable information for lead times exceeding one hour.

Inputs of the Dormant-Spray Pesticide, Diazinon, to the San Joaquin River, California, February 1993

USGS Publications Warehouse

Domagalski, Joseph L.; Dubrovsky, Neil M.; Kratzer, Charles R.

1995-01-01

INTRODUCTION The objective of the National Water Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program of the U.S. Geological Survey is to describe the status and trends of the Nation's water quality with respect to natural features of the environment and human activities or land-use. Pesticides are a major water-quality issue in the San Joaquin Valley of California (fig. 1), and pesticide residues may be transported to rivers and streams in agricultural runoff following winter storms. Three sites in the western San Joaquin Valley were monitored during and after two February 1993 storms. The storms occurred after extensive spraying of organophosphate insecticides, mostly diazinon, on almond and other stone-fruit orchards.

Global Ionosphere Perturbations Monitored by the Worldwide GPS Network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ho, C. M.; Manucci, A. T.; Lindqwister, U. J.; Pi, X.

1996-01-01

For the first time, measurements from the Global Positioning System (GPS) worldwide network are employed to study the global ionospheric total electron content(TEC) changes during a magnetic storm (November 26, 1994). These measurements are obtained from more than 60 world-wide GPS stations which continuously receive dual-frequency signals. Based on the delays of the signals, we have generated high resolution global ionospheric maps (GIM) of TEC at 15 minute intervals. Using a differential method comparing storm time maps with quiet time maps, we find that significant TEC increases (the positive effect ) are the major feature in the winter hemisphere during this storm (the maximum percent change relative to quiet times is about 150 percent).

Experts warn against cutting NOAA Space Weather Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

A well-timed congressional hearing, coming in the midst of fierce geomagnetic storms, could help to restore funding to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Environment Center (SEC).The center, which is the nation's official source of space weather alerts and warnings, currently is funded at $5.24 million for fiscal year 2003. That amount is $2 million less than it received the previous year. The Bush Administration has requested $8.02 million in funding. The appropriations bill, for the departments of Commerce, Justice, and State for fiscal year 2004, passed on 23 July by the House of Representatives, calls for funding the SEC at the $5.29 million level.

An operational integrated short-term warning solution for solar radiation storms: introducing the Forecasting Solar Particle Events and Flares (FORSPEF) system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anastasiadis, Anastasios; Sandberg, Ingmar; Papaioannou, Athanasios; Georgoulis, Manolis; Tziotziou, Kostas; Jiggens, Piers; Hilgers, Alain

2015-04-01

We present a novel integrated prediction system, of both solar flares and solar energetic particle (SEP) events, which is in place to provide short-term warnings for hazardous solar radiation storms. FORSPEF system provides forecasting of solar eruptive events, such as solar flares with a projection to coronal mass ejections (CMEs) (occurrence and velocity) and the likelihood of occurrence of a SEP event. It also provides nowcasting of SEP events based on actual solar flare and CME near real-time alerts, as well as SEP characteristics (peak flux, fluence, rise time, duration) per parent solar event. The prediction of solar flares relies on a morphological method which is based on the sophisticated derivation of the effective connected magnetic field strength (Beff) of potentially flaring active-region (AR) magnetic configurations and it utilizes analysis of a large number of AR magnetograms. For the prediction of SEP events a new reductive statistical method has been implemented based on a newly constructed database of solar flares, CMEs and SEP events that covers a large time span from 1984-2013. The method is based on flare location (longitude), flare size (maximum soft X-ray intensity), and the occurrence (or not) of a CME. Warnings are issued for all > C1.0 soft X-ray flares. The warning time in the forecasting scheme extends to 24 hours with a refresh rate of 3 hours while the respective warning time for the nowcasting scheme depends on the availability of the near real-time data and falls between 15-20 minutes. We discuss the modules of the FORSPEF system, their interconnection and the operational set up. The dual approach in the development of FORPSEF (i.e. forecasting and nowcasting scheme) permits the refinement of predictions upon the availability of new data that characterize changes on the Sun and the interplanetary space, while the combined usage of solar flare and SEP forecasting methods upgrades FORSPEF to an integrated forecasting solution. This work has been funded through the "FORSPEF: FORecasting Solar Particle Events and Flares", ESA Contract No. 4000109641/13/NL/AK

Experimental modelling of wave amplification over irregular bathymetry for investigations of boulder transport by extreme wave events.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Boyle, Louise; Whittaker, Trevor; Cox, Ronadh; Elsäßer, Björn

2017-04-01

During the winter of 2013-2014 the west coast of Ireland was exposed to 6 storms over a period of 8 weeks with wind speeds equating to hurricane categories 3 and 4. During this period, the largest significant wave height recorded at the Marine Institute M6 wave buoy, approximately 300km from the site, was 13.6m (on 26th January 2014). However, this may not be the largest sea state of that winter, because the buoy stopped logging on 30th January and therefore failed to capture the full winter period. During the February 12th 2014 "Darwin" storm, the Kinsale Energy Gas Platform off Ireland's south coast measured a wave height of 25 m, which remains the highest wave measured off Ireland's coasts[1]. Following these storms, significant dislocation and transportation of boulders and megagravel was observed on the Aran Islands, Co. Galway at elevations of up to 25m above the high water mark and distances up to 220 m inland including numerous clasts with masses >50t, and at least one megagravel block weighing >500t [2]. Clast movements of this magnitude would not have been predicted from the measured wave heights. This highlights a significant gap in our understanding of the relationships between storms and the coastal environment: how are storm waves amplified and modified by interactions with bathymetry? To gain further understanding of wave amplification, especially over steep and irregular bathymetry, we have designed Froude-scaled wave tank experiments using the 3D coastal wave basin facility at Queen's University Belfast. The basin is 18m long by 16m wide with wave generation by means of a 12m wide bank of 24 top hinged, force feedback, sector carrier wave paddles at one end. The basin is equipped with gravel beaches to dissipate wave energy on the remaining three sides, capable of absorbing up to 99% of the incident wave energy, to prevent unwanted reflections. Representative bathymetry for the Aran Islands is modelled in the basin based on a high resolution nearshore multibeam sonar survey. Water surface elevation is recorded using twin-wire resistance type wave probes along a shore-normal bathymetry transect as the waves shoal. Variations in significant wave height and maximum elevation are presented for both regular and irregular bathymetry and for a number of typical North Atlantic sea states. These results are significant for calibration of numerical wave propagation models over irregular bathymetry and for those seeking to understand the magnitude of nearshore extreme wave events. References [1] Met Éireann, 2014, Winter 2013/2014: Monthly Weather Bulletin, December issue, p. 1-5. http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/winterstorms13_14.pdf. [2] Cox, R. et. al., 2016, Movement of boulders and megagravel by storm waves Vol. 18, EGU2016-10535, 2016 EGU General Assembly 2016

U.S. preparedness for severe storms questioned

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

Doug Hill, chief meteorologist for WJLA-TV in Washington, D.C., recalled the broadcast news coverage of two supercell thunderstorms that swept through the region on September 24, producing three tornadoes and causing two fatalities. Hill said that only one local radio station which airs his forecasts activated the federal emergency alert system to immediately notify the public about the tornadoes, and added that there should be some changes in requirements. “Somehow, broadcast stations have to get the idea that these warnings and requests to activate [the alerts] are not done [just] for fun,” he said.Hill was among several experts appearing at an October 11 congressional hearing, “Weatherproofing the U.S.: Are We Prepared for Severe Storms?” The hearing, which was held by the U.S. House of Representatives' Science Committee, included testimony about the nation's emergency preparedness in dealing with several types of severe weather: tornadoes, hurricanes, and wind storms.

Thirty-one years of debris-flow observation and monitoring near La Honda, California, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wieczorek, G.F.; Wilson, R.C.; Ellen, S.D.; Reid, M.E.; Jayko, A.S.

2007-01-01

From 1975 until 2006,18 intense storms triggered at least 248 debris flows within 10 km2 northwest of the town of La Honda within the Santa Cruz Mountains, California. In addition to mapping debris flows and other types of landslides, studies included soil sampling and geologic mapping, piezometric and tensiometer monitoring, and rainfall measurement and recording. From 1985 until 1995, a system with radio telemetered rain gages and piezometers within the La Honda region was used for issuing six debris-flow warnings within the San Francisco Bay region through the NOAA ALERT system. Depending upon the relative intensity of rainfall during storms, debris flows were generated from deep slumps, shallow slumps, shallow slides in colluvium and shallow slides over bedrock. Analysis shows the storms with abundant antecedent rainfall followed by several days of steady heavy intense rainfall triggered the most abundant debris flows. ?? 2007 millpress.

The impact of climate change on winter road maintenance and traffic accidents in West Midlands, UK.

PubMed

Andersson, Anna K; Chapman, Lee

2011-01-01

Winter weather can be a significant cause of road traffic accidents. This paper uses UKCIP climate change scenarios and a temporal analogue to investigate the relationship between temperature and severe road accidents in the West Midlands, UK. This approach also allows quantification of the changes in the severity of the winter season over the next century in the region. It is demonstrated that the predicted reduction in the number of frost days should in turn reduce the number of road accidents caused due to slipperiness by approximately 50%. However, the paper concludes by warning against complacency in winter maintenance regimes. A warmer climate may result in budget cuts for highway maintenance which in turn may well reverse declining accident trends. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

High-resolution monitoring of stormwater quality in an urbanising catchment in the United Kingdom during the 2013/2014 winter storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGrane, S. J.; Hutchins, M. G.; Kjeldsen, T. R.; Miller, J. D.; Bussi, G.; Loewenthal, M.

2015-12-01

Urban areas are widely recognised as a key source of contaminants entering our freshwater systems, yet in spite of this, our understanding of stormwater quality dynamics remains limited. The development of in-situ, high-resolution monitoring equipment has revolutionised our capability to capture flow and water quality data at a sub-hourly resolution, enabling us to potentially enhance our understanding of hydrochemical variations from contrasting landscapes during storm events. During the winter of 2013/2014, the United Kingdom experienced a succession of intense storm events, where the south of the country experienced 200% of the average rainfall, resulting in widespread flooding across the Thames basin. We applied high-frequency (15 minute resolution) water quality monitoring across ten contrasting subcatchments (including rural, urban and mixed land-use catchments), seeking to classify the disparity in water quality conditions both within- and between events. Rural catchments increasingly behave like "urban" catchments as soils wet up and become increasingly responsive to subsequent events, however water quality response during the winter months remains limited. By contrast, increasingly urban catchments yield greater contaminant loads during events, and pre-event baseline chemistry highlights a resupply source in dense urban catchments. Wastewater treatment plants were shown to dominate baseline chemistry during low-flow events but also yield a considerable impact on stormwater outputs during peak-flow events, as hydraulic push results in the outflow of untreated solid wastes into the river system. Results are discussed in the context of water quality policy; urban growth scenarios and BMP for stormwater runoff in contrasting landscapes.

Regional and climatic controls on seasonal dust deposition in the southwestern U.S.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reheis, M.C.; Urban, F.E.

2011-01-01

Vertical dust deposition rates (dust flux) are a complex response to the interaction of seasonal precipitation, wind, changes in plant cover and land use, dust source type, and local vs. distant dust emission in the southwestern U.S. Seasonal dust flux in the Mojave-southern Great Basin (MSGB) deserts, measured from 1999 to 2008, is similar in summer-fall and winter-spring, and antecedent precipitation tends to suppress dust flux in winter-spring. In contrast, dust flux in the eastern Colorado Plateau (ECP) region is much larger in summer-fall than in winter-spring, and twice as large as in the MSGB. ECP dust is related to wind speed, and in the winter-spring to antecedent moisture. Higher summer dust flux in the ECP is likely due to gustier winds and runoff during monsoonal storms when temperature is also higher. Source types in the MSGB and land use in the ECP have important effects on seasonal dust flux. In the MSGB, wet playas produce salt-rich dust during wetter seasons, whereas antecedent and current moisture suppress dust emission from alluvial and dry-playa sources during winter-spring. In the ECP under drought conditions, dust flux at a grazed-and-plowed site increased greatly, and also increased at three annualized, previously grazed sites. Dust fluxes remained relatively consistent at ungrazed and currently grazed sites that have maintained perennial vegetation cover. Under predicted scenarios of future climate change, these results suggest that an increase in summer storms may increase dust flux in both areas, but resultant effects will depend on source type, land use, and vegetation cover. ?? 2011.

Geomagnetic Storm Effects in the Low- to Middle-Latitude Upper Thermosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burns, A. G.; Killeen, T. L.; Deng, W.; Carignan, G. R.; Roble, R. G.

1995-01-01

In this paper, we use data from the Dynamics Explorer 2 (DE 2) satellite and a theoretical simulation made by using the National Center for Atmospheric Research thermosphere/ionosphere general circulation model (NCAR-TIGCM) to study storm-induced changes in the structure of the upper thermosphere in the low- to middle-latitude (20 deg-40 deg N) region of the winter hemisphere. Our principal results are as follows: (1) The winds associated with the diurnal tide weaken during geomagnetic storms, causing primarily zonally oriented changes in the evening sector, few changes in the middle of the afternoon, a combination of zonal and meridional changes in the late morning region, and mainly meridional changes early in the morning; (2) Decreases in the magnitudes of the horizontal winds associated with the diurnal tide lead to a net downward tendency in the vertical winds blowing through a constant pressure surface; (3) Because of these changes in the vertical wind, there is an increase in compressional heating (or a decrease in cooling through expansion), and thus temperatures in the low- to middle-latitudes of the winter hemisphere increase; (4) Densities of all neutral species increase on a constant height surface, but the pattern of changes in the O/N2 ratio is not well ordered on these surfaces; (5) The pattern of changes in the O/N2 ratio is better ordered on constant pressure surfaces. The increases in this ratio on constant pressure surfaces in the low- to middle-latitude, winter hemisphere are caused by a more downward tendency in the vertical winds that blow through the constant pressure surfaces. Nitrogen-poor air is then advected downward through the pressure surface, increasing the O/N2 ratio; (6) The daytime geographical distribution of the modeled increases in the O/N2 ratio on a constant pressure surface in the low- to middle-latitudes of the winter hemisphere correspond very closely with those of increases in the modeled electron densities at the F2 peak.

A SIMPLE HYDROLOGICAL MODEL FOR WATERSHED CHARACTERIZATION

EPA Science Inventory

Catchment behavior is characterized with a variety of metrics - discharge, chemical export, biological activity, to name a few. Catchments have complex temporal behavior, e.g., summer and winter storm recessions and nutrient export may look nothing alike. Further, catchment res...

Winter Storm Jupiter of January 2017: Meteorological Drivers, Synoptic Evolution, and Climate Change Considerations in Portland, Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dean, S.; Loikith, P. C.

2017-12-01

Although the Pacific Northwest has some of the highest wintertime precipitation in the United States, most urban areas receive little in the way of snow. While 37 inches of wintertime rain fall in Portland on average annually, the city only receives four inches of snow on average. Although wintertime extreme snowstorm events are rare in Portland, in the last century they have occurred about once every ten years. On January 10-12th, 2017, winter storm Jupiter brought 11 inches of snow to downtown Portland within a 12-hour period, making it the largest snowstorm for the city in twenty years. The city declared a state of emergency, over 30,000 citizens lost power, and thousands of businesses were forced to shut down. The anomalously cold air and high amounts of snowfall in a short amount of time made the storm different from others in recent years. This study aims to discover the meteorological drivers behind the January 2017 snowstorm in Portland, Oregon. We also aim to understand how this storm compared with other local storms in the past, and assess the likelihood of a similar event occurring in the future. To do this, reanalysis data were used to display the synoptic evolution of the January 2017 storm. We compared this storm with two other extreme snowfall events from December 2008 and January 1980, assessing meteorological similarities and differences between storms. Results show that the 2017 event was associated with a slow moving, strong low-pressure system accompanied by a 500 hPa trough. These large-scale features helped drive slow moving, locally heavy snow bands over the city of Portland. At the same time, an unusually strong Arctic high-pressure system moved into the interior Pacific Northwest allowing for strong cold air advection west through the Cascade Mountain Range and Columbia River Gorge. Temperature trends show warming of 1-2 °C in the Pacific Northwest since the middle of the last century. Because of this, uncertainty associated with occurrence and magnitude of extreme snowfall events with respect to climate change must also be assessed. Understanding essential questions about the synoptic evolution of extreme snowfall events will better equip meteorologists and city planners to understand how this event occurred, and what to look for to better prepare Pacific Northwest cities for future storms.

A lightning-based nowcast-warning approach for short-duration rainfall events: Development and testing over Beijing during the warm seasons of 2006-2007

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Fan; Cui, Xiaopeng; Zhang, Da-Lin

2018-06-01

Nowcasting short-duration (i.e., <6 h) rainfall (SDR) events is examined using total [i.e., cloud-to-ground (CG) and intra-cloud (IC)] lightning observations over the Beijing Metropolitan Region (BMR) during the warm seasons of 2006-2007. A total of 928 moderate and 554 intense SDR events, i.e., with the respective hourly rainfall rates (HRR) of 10-20 and ≥20 mm h-1, are utilized to estimate sharp-increasing rates in rainfall and lightning flash, termed as rainfall and lightning jumps, respectively. By optimizing the parameters in a lightning jump and a rainfall jump algorithm, their different jump intensity grades are verified for the above two categories of SDR events. Then, their corresponding graded nowcast-warning models are developed for the moderate and intense SDR events, respectively, with a low-grade warning for hitting more SDR events and a high-grade warning for reducing false alarms. Any issued warning in the nowcast-warning models is designed to last for 2 h after the occurrence of a lightning jump. It is demonstrated that the low-grade warnings can have the probability of detection (POD) of 67.8% (87.0%) and the high-grade warnings have the false alarms ratio (FAR) of 27.0% (22.2%) for the moderate (intense) SDR events, with an averaged lead time of 36.7 (52.0) min. The nowcast-warning models are further validated using three typical heavy-rain-producing storms that are independent from those used to develop the models. Results show that the nowcast-warning models can provide encouraging early warnings for the associated SDR events from the regional to meso-γ scales, indicating that they have a great potential in being applied to the other regions where high-resolution total lightning observations are available.

Integration of the Total Lightning Jump Algorithm into Current Operational Warning Environment Conceptual Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schultz, Christopher J.; Carey, Lawerence D.; Schultz, Elise V.; Stano, Geoffery T.; Kozlowski, Danielle M.; Goodman, Steven

2012-01-01

Key points that this analysis will begin to address are: 1)What physically is going on in the cloud when there is a jump in lightning? - Updraft variations, ice fluxes. 2)How do these processes fit in with severe storm conceptual models? 3)What would this information provide an end user (i.e., the forecaster)? - Relate LJA to radar observations, like changes in reflectivity, MESH, VIL, etc. based multi-Doppler derived physical relationships 4) How do we best transistionthis algorithm into the warning decision process. The known relationship between lightning updraft strength/volume and precipitation ice mass production can be extended to the concept of the lightning jump. Examination of the first lightning jump times from 329 storms in Schultz et al. shows an increase in the mean reflectivity profile and mixed phase echo volume during the 10 minutes prior to the lightning jump. Limited dual-Doppler results show that the largest lightning jumps are well correlated in time with increases in updraft strength/volume and precipitation ice mass production; however, the smaller magnitude lightning jumps appear to have more subtle relationships to updraft and ice mass characteristics.

Links Between the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Severe Convective Storms in the U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barrett, B.

2015-12-01

Recent research has shown a tendency for severe convective storms to vary intraseasonally, including by phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The MJO is the leading mode of atmospheric intraseasonal variability and is characterized by large regions (1000-5000 km) of anomalous convective activity that generally propagate eastward along the equator. Anomalous upper-troposphere heating associated with this convection generates poleward-propagating Rossby waves that interact with the preexisting extratropical circulation. The projection of this interaction onto the synoptic scale - via the favoring of troughs and ridges at certain positions - is the hypothesized mechanism by which the MJO modulates severe convection. However, one unexplored aspect of this modulation is the extent to which severe convection in winter and early-spring months, especially Jan-Mar, may be influenced by different phases of the MJO. While climatologically rarer than events later in spring, severe thunderstorms in winter and early spring still have potential to be high-impact weather events, especially as they often occur in populated areas of the southeast U.S. that have shown more vulnerability than other regions such as the southern or central plains. Results from other studies (not necessarily focused on the question of severe convective storms) have indicated statistically significant modulation of upper- and mid-tropospheric circulation (from 200 hPa to 700 hPa), surface temperature, and sea level pressure. Thus, it is possible that the MJO's influence also extends to severe storms, as these are ingredients known to affect the likelihood of convective activity in the U.S. Using a methodology similar to other recent MJO studies, the impacts of the MJO on tornado, hail, and wind activity from Jan-Mar will be tested as part of this larger project to understand intraseasonal variability of severe storms.

Identification of Critical Vulnerable Areas During a Typhoon Haiyan Event in the Metro Manila Area Using Storm Surge Hazard Maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briones, J. B. L. T.; Puno, J. V.; Lapidez, J. P. B.; Muldong, T. M. M.; Ramos, M. M.; Caro, C. V.; Ladiero, C.; Bahala, M. A.; Suarez, J. K. B.; Santiago, J. T.

2014-12-01

Sudden rises in sea water over and above astronomical tides due to an approaching storm are known as storm surges. The development of an early warning system for storm surges is imperative, due to the high threat level of these events; Typhoon Haiyan in 08 November 2013 generated storm surges that caused casualties of over 6,000. Under the Department of Science and Technology, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (DOST - Project NOAH) was tasked to generate storm surge hazard maps for all the coastal areas in the Philippines. The objective of this paper is to create guidelines on how to utilize the storm surge hazard map as a tool for planning and disaster mitigation. This study uses the case of the hypothetical situation in which a tropical storm with an intensity similar to Typhoon Haiyan hits Metro Manila. This site was chosen for various reasons, among them the economic, political, and cultural importance of Metro Manila as the location of the capital of the Philippines and the coastal bay length of the area. The concentration of residential areas and other establishments were also taken into account. Using the Japan Meteorology Association (JMA) Storm Surge Model, FLO-2D flood modelling software and the application of other GIS technology, the impact of Haiyan-strength typhoon passing through Manila was analysed. We were able to identify the population affected, number of affected critical facilities under each storm surge hazard level, and possible evacuation sites. The results of the study can be used as the basis of policies involving disaster response and mitigation by city authorities. The methods used by the study can be used as a replicable framework for the analysis of other sites in the Philippines.

A hydroclimatic threshold for landslide initiation on the North Shore Mountains of Vancouver, British Columbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakob, Matthias; Weatherly, Hamish

2003-09-01

Landslides triggered by rainfall are the cause of thousands of deaths worldwide every year. One possible approach to limit the socioeconomic consequences of such events is the development of climatic thresholds for landslide initiation. In this paper, we propose a method that incorporates antecedent rainfall and streamflow data to develop a landslide initiation threshold for the North Shore Mountains of Vancouver, British Columbia. Hydroclimatic data were gathered for 18 storms that triggered landslides and 18 storms that did not. Discriminant function analysis separated the landslide-triggering storms from those storms that did not trigger landslides and selected the most meaningful variables that allow this separation. Discriminant functions were also developed for the landslide-triggering and nonlandslide-triggering storms. The difference of the discriminant scores, ΔCS, for both groups is a measure of landslide susceptibility during a storm. The variables identified that optimize the separation of the two storm groups are 4-week rainfall prior to a significant storm, 6-h rainfall during a storm, and the number of hours 1 m 3/s discharge was exceeded at Mackay Creek during a storm. Three thresholds were identified. The Landslide Warning Threshold (LWT) is reached when ΔCS is -1. The Conditional Landslide Initiation Threshold (CTL I) is reached when ΔCS is zero, and it implies that landslides are likely if 4 mm/h rainfall intensity is exceeded at which point the Imminent Landslide Initiation Threshold (ITL I) is reached. The LWT allows time for the issuance of a landslide advisory and to move personnel out of hazardous areas. The methodology proposed in this paper can be transferred to other regions worldwide where type and quality of data are appropriate for this type of analysis.

Mobility of maerl-siliciclastic mixtures: Impact of waves, currents and storm events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Siddhi; Duffy, Garret Patrick; Brown, Colin

2017-04-01

Maerl beds are free-living, non-geniculate coralline algae habitats which form biogenic reefs with high micro-scale complexity supporting a diversity and abundance of rare epifauna and epiflora. These habitats are highly mobile in shallow marine environments where substantial maerl beds co-exist with siliciclastic sediment, exemplified by our study site of Galway Bay. Coupled hydrodynamic-wave-sediment transport models have been used to explore the transport patterns of maerl-siliciclastic sediment during calm summer conditions and severe winter storms. The sediment distribution is strongly influenced by storm waves even in water depths greater than 100 m. Maerl is present at the periphery of wave-induced residual current gyres during storm conditions. A combined wave-current Sediment Mobility Index during storm conditions shows correlation with multibeam backscatter and surficial sediment distribution. A combined wave-current Mobilization Frequency Index during storm conditions acts as a physical surrogate for the presence of maerl-siliciclastic mixtures in Galway Bay. Both indices can provide useful integrated oceanographic and sediment information to complement coupled numerical hydrodynamic, sediment transport and erosion-deposition models.

Anticipating environmental and environmental-health implications of extreme storms: ARkStorm scenario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Plumlee, Geoffrey S.; Alpers, Charles N.; Morman, Suzette A.; San Juan, Carma A.

2016-01-01

The ARkStorm Scenario predicts that a prolonged winter storm event across California would cause extreme precipitation, flooding, winds, physical damages, and economic impacts. This study uses a literature review and geographic information system-based analysis of national and state databases to infer how and where ARkStorm could cause environmental damages, release contamination from diverse natural and anthropogenic sources, affect ecosystem and human health, and cause economic impacts from environmental-remediation, liability, and health-care costs. Examples of plausible ARkStorm environmental and health concerns include complex mixtures of contaminants such as petroleum, mercury, asbestos, persistent organic pollutants, molds, and pathogens; adverse physical and contamination impacts on riverine and coastal marine ecosystems; and increased incidences of mold-related health concerns, some vector-borne diseases, and valley fever. Coastal cities, the San Francisco Bay area, the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, parts of the Central Valley, and some mountainous areas would likely be most affected. This type of screening analysis, coupled with follow-up local assessments, can help stakeholders in California and disaster-prone areas elsewhere better plan for, mitigate, and respond to future environmental disasters.

GOES-S Mission Science Briefing

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-02-27

In the Kennedy Space Center's Press Site auditorium, Kristin Calhoun, a research scientist with NOAA's National Severe Storms Laboratory, speaks to members of the media at a mission briefing on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's, or NOAA's, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, or GOES-S. The spacecraft is the second satellite in a series of next-generation NOAA weather satellites. It will launch to a geostationary position over the U.S. to provide images of storms and help predict weather forecasts, severe weather outlooks, watches, warnings, lightning conditions and longer-term forecasting. GOES-S is slated to lift off at 5:02 p.m. EST on March 1, 2018 aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket.

North Atlantic explosive cyclones and large scale atmospheric variability modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liberato, Margarida L. R.

2015-04-01

Extreme windstorms are one of the major natural catastrophes in the extratropics, one of the most costly natural hazards in Europe and are responsible for substantial economic damages and even fatalities. During the last decades Europe witnessed major damage from winter storms such as Lothar (December 1999), Kyrill (January 2007), Klaus (January 2009), Xynthia (February 2010), Gong (January 2013) and Stephanie (February 2014) which exhibited uncommon characteristics. In fact, most of these storms crossed the Atlantic in direction of Europe experiencing an explosive development at unusual lower latitudes along the edge of the dominant North Atlantic storm track and reaching Iberia with an uncommon intensity (Liberato et al., 2011; 2013; Liberato 2014). Results show that the explosive cyclogenesis process of most of these storms at such low latitudes is driven by: (i) the southerly displacement of a very strong polar jet stream; and (ii) the presence of an atmospheric river (AR), that is, by a (sub)tropical moisture export over the western and central (sub)tropical Atlantic which converges into the cyclogenesis region and then moves along with the storm towards Iberia. Previous studies have pointed to a link between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and intense European windstorms. On the other hand, the NAO exerts a decisive control on the average latitudinal location of the jet stream over the North Atlantic basin (Woollings et al. 2010). In this work the link between North Atlantic explosive cyclogenesis, atmospheric rivers and large scale atmospheric variability modes is reviewed and discussed. Liberato MLR (2014) The 19 January 2013 windstorm over the north Atlantic: Large-scale dynamics and impacts on Iberia. Weather and Climate Extremes, 5-6, 16-28. doi: 10.1016/j.wace.2014.06.002 Liberato MRL, Pinto JG, Trigo IF, Trigo RM. (2011) Klaus - an exceptional winter storm over Northern Iberia and Southern France. Weather 66:330-334. doi:10.1002/wea.755 Liberato MLR, Pinto JG, Trigo RM, Ludwig P, Ordóñez P, Yuen D, Trigo IF (2013) Explosive development of winter storm Xynthia over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 13:2239-2251. doi:10.5194/nhess-13-2239-2013 Woollings T, Hannachi A, Hoskins B (2010) Variability of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 136, 856-868, doi:10.1002/qj.625 Acknowledgements: This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER- 019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010).

DSD Characteristics of a Mid-Winter Tornadic Storm Using C-Band Polarimetric Radar and Two 2D-Video Disdrometers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thurai, M.; Petersen, W. A.; Carey, L. A.

2010-01-01

Drop size distributions in an evolving tornadic storm are examined using C-band polarimetric radar observations and two 2D-video disdrometers. The E-F2 storm occurred in mid-winter (21 January 2010) in northern Alabama, USA, and caused widespread damage. The evolution of the storm occurred within the C-band radar coverage and moreover, several minutes prior to touch down, the storm passed over a site where several disdrometers including two 2D video disdrometers (2DVD) had been installed. One of the 2DVDs is a low profile unit and the other is a new next generation compact unit currently undergoing performance evaluation. Analyses of the radar data indicate that the main region of precipitation should be treated as a "big-drop" regime case. Even the measured differential reflectivity values (i.e. without attenuation correction) were as high as 6-7 dB within regions of high reflectivity. Standard attenuation-correction methods using differential propagation phase have been "fine tuned" to be applicable to the "big drop" regime. The corrected reflectivity and differential reflectivity data are combined with the co-polar correlation coefficient and specific differential phase to determine the mass-weighted mean diameter, Dm, and the width of the mass spectrum, (sigma)M, as well as the intercept parameter , Nw. Significant areas of high Dm (3-4 mm) were retrieved within the main precipitation areas of the tornadic storm. The "big drop" regime assumption is substantiated by the two sets of 2DVD measurements. The Dm values calculated from 1-minute drop size distributions reached nearly 4 mm, whilst the maximum drop diameters were over 6 mm. The fall velocity measurements from the 2DVD indicate almost all hydrometeors to be fully melted at ground level. Drop shapes for this event are also being investigated from the 2DVD camera data.

Assessment and comparison of extreme sea levels and waves during the 2013/14 storm season in two UK coastal regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wadey, M. P.; Brown, J. M.; Haigh, I. D.; Dolphin, T.; Wisse, P.

2015-10-01

The extreme sea levels and waves experienced around the UK's coast during the 2013/14 winter caused extensive coastal flooding and damage. Coastal managers seek to place such extremes in relation to the anticipated standards of flood protection, and the long-term recovery of the natural system. In this context, return periods are often used as a form of guidance. This paper provides these levels for the winter storms, and discusses their application to the given data sets for two UK case study sites: Sefton, northwest England, and Suffolk, east England. Tide gauge records and wave buoy data were used to compare the 2013/14 storms with return periods from a national data set, and also joint probabilities of sea level and wave heights were generated, incorporating the recent events. The 2013/14 high waters and waves were extreme due to the number of events, as well as the extremity of the 5 December 2013 "Xaver" storm, which had a high return period at both case study sites. The national-scale impact of this event was due to its coincidence with spring high tide at multiple locations. Given that this event is such an outlier in the joint probability analyses of these observed data sets, and that the season saw several events in close succession, coastal defences appear to have provided a good level of protection. This type of assessment could in the future be recorded alongside defence performance and upgrade. Ideally other variables (e.g. river levels at estuarine locations) would also be included, and with appropriate offsetting for local trends (e.g. mean sea-level rise) so that the storm-driven component of coastal flood events can be determined. This could allow long-term comparison of storm severity, and an assessment of how sea-level rise influences return levels over time, which is important for consideration of coastal resilience in strategic management plans.

NASA Airline Operations Research Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mogford, Richard H.

2016-01-01

This is a PowerPoint presentation NASA airline operations center (AOC) research. It includes information on using IBM Watson in the AOC. It also reviews a dispatcher decision support tool call the Flight Awareness Collaboration Tool (FACT). FACT gathers information about winter weather onto one screen and includes predictive abilities. It should prove to be useful for airline dispatchers and airport personnel when they manage winter storms and their effect on air traffic. This material is very similar to other previously approved presentations with the same title.

Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hood, R. E.

2016-12-01

The Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Program of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is working with the National Weather Service, the National Ocean Service, other Federal agencies, private industry, and academia to evaluate the feasibility of UAS observations to provide time critical information needed for situational awareness, prediction, warning, and damage assessment of hazards. This activity is managed within a portfolio of projects entitled "Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology (SHOUT)." The diversity of this portfolio includes evaluations of high altitude UAS observations for high impact oceanic storms prediction to low altitude UAS observations of rivers, severe storms, and coastal areas for pre-hazard situational awareness and post-hazard damage assessments. Each SHOUT evaluation project begins with a proof-of-concept field demonstration of a UAS observing strategy for a given hazard and then matures to joint studies of both scientific data impact along with cost and operational feasibility of the observing strategy for routine applications. The technology readiness and preliminary evaulation results will be presented for several UAS observing strategies designed for improved observations of oceanic storms, floods, severe storms, and coastal ecosystem hazards.

Wave processes and geologic responses on the floor of the Yellow Sea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Booth, James S.; Winters, William J.

1991-01-01

The floor of the Yellow Sea is a geologically mundane surface: it is nearly horizontal, lacks relief, and, with few exceptions, is devoid of conspicuous geomorphologic features. However, it is the principal repository for the prodigious sediment load of the Huanghe (Yellow River); and, due to its inherent shallowness (average depth is 40 m), it is frequently stressed by waves generated by winter storms and typhoons. Analyses of mass physical properties of cores representing the upper few meters of sediment in the central and north-central Yellow Sea (near the Shandong Peninsula), in conjunction with analyses of slope stability, failure modes, and erodibility, permit an assessment of the likelihood and effect of dynamic, transient geologic events on the seabed.Vane shear-strength profiles along with consolidation test data indicate that the present surface of the seabed is in a depositional mode and is compacting normally. in addition, liquid-limit profiles imply that in the study area these neritic sediments have been accumulating in an environment that probably has not been modified significantly since sea level reached its current level. There is no geotechnical evidence in the nine cores recovered that slope failures have occurred, and clasts, sand lenses or other manifestations of mass movements, including flows, also are absent. These observations support previous interpretations of seismic records. Moreover, slope stability analysis for static conditions shows that the sea floor is quite stable.Regardless, shear-stress levels generated by cyclic loading during major storms may approach the sediment shear strengths, and, when coupled with concomitant excess pore pressures, could cause slope failure. Unless the failed beds collapsed or flowed, however, there probably would be little conspicuous evidence of such a failure. in fact, evaluation of the potential of these sediments for disintegrative behavior suggests that they are not prone to either collapse or flow.Storm waves also generate oscillatory bottom currents that may erode the seabed. Whether the sediment is considered as cohesionless or cohesive, typhoons could have the potential to erode at all water depths within the Yellow Sea (i.e., to 90 m), and winter storms to water depths of 60 m or more. However, in the case of cohesive behavior, it could be that the effect of winter storms and most typhoons is generally less extreme. If the sea floor is repeatedly scoured, it is likely limited to the top few centimeters.Despite the fact that storm waves may cause slope failure and are certainly responsible for frequent scouring, they probably leave only a subtle sedimentologic imprint on the seabed.

Study of flash floods over some parts of Brazil using precipitation index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Souza, D.; de Souza, R. L. M.; Araujo, R.

2016-12-01

In Brazil, the main phenomena related to natural disasters are derived from the Earth's external dynamics such as floods and flash floods, landslides and storms, where the flash flood phenomenon causes the second highest number of victims, totaling more than 32% of deaths. Floods and flash floods are natural events often triggered by storms or long period of rains, usually associated with rising volume of rainfall on the watershed, leading the river to exceed its maximum. Whereas the occurrence of natural disasters in Brazil is increasing in recent years, the use of more accurate tools to aid in the monitoring of extreme hydrological events it becomes necessary, aiming to decrease the number of human and material losses. In this context, this paper aims to implement an early warning and monitoring system related to extreme precipitation values and hydrological processes. So, initially was studied flood events in the states of São Paulo and Paraná, aimed de determination of the characteristics of rainfall and atmosphere. Later it was used an indicator of precipitation based on the climatology, which indicates warning points on the drainage network related to extreme precipitation, which are obtained by remote sensing sources, for example, radar and satellite, and numerical weather prediction data of short and very short term. The results indicated that most of the flood events over the study area was related to rainfall of deep convection. The use of precipitation indicators also helped the monitoring and the early warning, showing this to be an excellent tool for applications related to flash floods.

77 FR 23791 - Oregon Disaster #OR-00042

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-04-20

... SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION [Disaster Declaration 13060 and 13061] Oregon Disaster OR-00042... Administrative declaration of a disaster for the State of OREGON dated 04/02/2012. Incident: Severe Winter Storm... the disaster: Primary Counties: Marion. Contiguous Counties: Oregon: Clackamas, Jefferson, Linn, Polk...

Microscopic analysis of traffic flow in inclement weather.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-11-01

Weather causes a variety of impacts on the transportation system. An Oak Ridge National Laboratory study estimated the delay experienced by American drivers due to snow, ice, and fog in 1999 at 46 million hours. While severe winter storms, hurricanes...

NASA AIRS Instrument Captures Data on Monster Winter Storm Affecting 30 States

NASA Image and Video Library

2011-02-02

This visible image from NASA Aqua satellite Jan. 31 shows thickening clouds along a developing intense front in the plains and Midwestern states that will produce excessive snow, freezing rain, sleet, and wind in those areas.

Treatment performance of a constructed wetland during storm and non-storm events in Korea.

PubMed

Maniquiz, M C; Lee, S Y; Choi, J Y; Jeong, S M; Kim, L H

2012-01-01

The efficiency of a free water surface flow constructed wetland (CW) in treating agricultural discharges from stream was investigated during storm and non-storm events between April and December, 2009. Physico-chemical and water quality constituents were monitored at five sampling locations along the flow path of the CW. The greatest reduction in pollutant concentration was observed after passing the sedimentation zone at approximately 4% fractional distance from the inflow. The inflow hydraulic loading, flow rates and pollutant concentrations were significantly higher and variable during storm events than non-storm (baseflow) condition (p <0.001) that resulted to an increase in the average pollutant removal efficiencies by 10 to 35%. The highest removal percentages were attained for phosphate (51 ± 22%), ammonium (44 ± 21%) and phosphorus (38 ± 19%) while nitrate was least effectively retained by the system with only 25 ± 17% removal during non-storm events. The efficiency of the system was most favorable when the temperature was above 15 °C (i.e., almost year-round except the winter months) and during storm events. Overall, the outflow water quality was better than the inflow water quality signifying the potential of the constructed wetland as a treatment system and capability of improving the stream water quality.

Role of antecedent conditions on nitrogen and phosphorus mobilisation observed in a lowland arable catchment in eastern England: insights from high-frequency monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Outram, Faye; Hiscock, Kevin; Dugdale, Stephen; Lovett, Andrew

2015-04-01

In order to reduce annual riverine loadings of nutrients which are responsible for degradation of ecosystems downstream and in near coastal areas, it is important to first understand the mobilisation and pathways responsible for transporting them from source to river and how these pathways vary in space and time. The Blackwater tributary of the River Wensum in Norfolk, England, has been equipped with a sensor network as part of the Demonstration Test Catchments project, which has the aim of reducing pollution from agriculture to river systems whilst maintaining food security by the trial of mitigation measures on working farms at the sub-catchment level. The River Wensum is a lowland chalk catchment with intensive arable agriculture and high occurrence of tile drainage on heavier soils. Three hydrological years of high-frequency data have been gathered in the Blackwater since October 2011, including rainfall, half hourly measurements of discharge and groundwater level coupled with hydrochemical parameters including nitrate, total phosphorus (TP) and total reactive phosphorus (TRP). In the three years of data collection, there were distinct departures from long-term rainfall averages as the winter of 2011-12 was extremely dry following a drought from the previous hydrological year, followed by a summer which was unseasonably wet, which continued into the following winter. The relationship between rainfall, storage and discharge was found to be complex, which in turn had an impact on the dominant controls transporting nutrients from the landscape to the river network. Thirty three storms occurred throughout the three year period which have been analysed in the context of the range of hydrometeorological conditions observed throughout the dataset. Discharge-concentration hysteretic responses of nitrogen, TP and TRP have been used alongside statistical analysis of storm characteristics including antecedent hydrological conditions. The nitrate storm response showed distinct seasonal patterns which were greatly impacted by the activation of tile drain flow throughout the winter period and during the fertiliser application window between March-May, with the dry winter in 2011-12 standing apart from the more 'typical' years. Four different storm response categories were identified for nitrate according to dominant flow pathways. The phosphorus response was far less uniform throughout the study period, showing patterns of exhaustion with successive events. Both nitrate and phosphorus loads were disproportionate to flow volume in storm events which occurred after significant dry periods. The data show the importance of antecedent conditions in the storage, mobilisation and transport of nitrogen and phosphorus in agricultural catchments which has important implications for the conceptual understanding of catchment functioning and environmental management.

The Martian Dust Cycle: Observations and Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kahre, Melinda A.

2013-01-01

The dust cycle is critically important for Mars' current climate system. Suspended atmospheric dust affects the radiative balance of the atmosphere, and thus greatly influences the thermal and dynamical state of the atmosphere. Evidence for the presence of dust in the Martian atmosphere can be traced back to yellow clouds telescopically observed as early as the early 19th century. The Mariner 9 orbiter arrived at Mars in November of 1971 to find a planet completely enshrouded in airborne dust. Since that time, the exchange of dust between the planet's surface and atmosphere and the role of airborne dust on Mars' weather and climate has been studied using observations and numerical models. The goal of this talk is to give an overview of the observations and to discuss the successes and challenges associated with modeling the dust cycle. Dust raising events on Mars range in size from meters to hundreds of kilometers. During some years, regional storms merge to produce hemispheric or planet encircling dust clouds that obscure the surface and raise atmospheric temperatures by tens of kelvin. The interannual variability of planet encircling dust storms is poorly understood. Although the occurrence and season of large regional and global dust storms are highly variable from one year to the next, there are many features of the dust cycle that occur year after year. A low-level dust haze is maintained during northern spring and summer, while elevated levels of atmospheric dust occur during northern autumn and winter. During years without global-scale dust storms, two peaks in total dust loading are generally observed: one peak occurs before northern winter solstice and one peak occurs after northern winter solstice. Numerical modeling studies attempting to interactively simulate the Martian dust cycle with general circulation models (GCMs) include the lifting, transport, and sedimentation of radiatively active dust. Two dust lifting processes are commonly represented in these models: wind-stress lifting (i.e., saltation) and dust devil lifting. Although the predicted patterns of dust lifting and atmospheric dust loading from these simulations capture some aspects of the observed dust cycle, there are many notable differences between the simulated and observed dust cycles. For example, it is common for models to predict one peak in global dust loading near northern winter solstice due to excessive dust lifting in the Hellas basin at this season. Additionally, it is difficult for models to realistically capture the observed interannual variability in global dust storms. New avenues of dust cycle modeling research include exploring the effects of finite surface dust reservoirs and the effects of coupling the dust and water cycles on the predicted dust cycle.

Relations Between Rainfall and Postfire Debris-Flow and Flood Magnitudes for Emergency-Response Planning, San Gabriel Mountains, Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cannon, Susan H.; Boldt, Eric M.; Kean, Jason W.; Laber, Jayme; Staley, Dennis M.

2010-01-01

Following wildfires, emergency-response and public-safety agencies are faced often with making evacuation decisions and deploying resources both well in advance of each coming winter storm and during storms themselves. Information critical to this process is provided for recently burned areas in the San Gabriel Mountains of southern California. The National Weather Service (NWS) issues Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs) for the San Gabriel Mountains twice a day, at approximately 4 a.m. and 4 p.m., along with unscheduled updates when conditions change. QPFs provide estimates of rainfall totals in 3-hour increments for the first 12-hour period and in 6-hour increments for the second 12-hour period. Estimates of one-hour rainfall intensities can be provided in the forecast narrative, along with probable peak intensities and timing, although with less confidence than rainfall totals. A compilation of information on the hydrologic response to winter storms from recently burned areas in southern California steeplands was used to develop a system for classifying the magnitude of the postfire hydrologic response. The four-class system is based on a combination of the reported volume of individual debris flows, the consequences of these events in an urban setting, and the spatial extent of the response to the triggering storm. Threshold rainfall conditions associated with debris flow and floods of different magnitude classes are defined by integrating local rainfall data with debris-flow and flood magnitude information. The within-storm rainfall accumulations (A) and durations (D) above which magnitude I events are expected are defined by A=0.3D0.6. The function A=0.5D0.6 defines the within-storm rainfall accumulations and durations above which a magnitude III event will occur in response to a regional-scale storm, and a magnitude II event will occur if the storm affects only a few drainage basins. The function A=1.0D0.5defines the rainfall conditions above which magnitude III events can be expected. Rainfall trigger-magnitude relations are linked with potential emergency-response actions in the form of an emergency-response decision chart. The chart leads a user through steps to determine potential event magnitudes, and identify possible evacuation and resource-deployment levels as a function of either individual storm forecasts or measured precipitation during storms. The ability to use this information in the planning and response decision-making process may result in significant financial savings and increased safety for both the public and emergency responders.

A Numerical Simulation (Study) of a Strong West Coast December 2014 Winter Storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smelser, I.; Xu, L.; Amerault, C. M.; Baker, N. L.; Satterfield, E.; Chua, B.

2016-12-01

From December 10 through December 13, 2014, a powerful winter storm swept across the western US coastal states bringing widespread power outages, numerous downed trees and power lines, heavy rains, flooding and even a tornado in the Los Angeles basin. This windstorm was the strongest since October 2009, and was similar to classic wind storms such as the 1962 Columbus Day Storm (Read, 2015).The storm started developing over the Pacific Ocean north of Hawaii on Nov. 30, and formed an atmospheric river that eventually stretched from Hawaii to the west coast. The storm initially hit the Pacific Northwest on Dec. 9th and then split. The highest precipitation amounts started in British Colombia and moved south along the coast. By the Dec. 11th, the highest precipitation amounts were near San Francisco (CA). The peak wind gust (14.4 ms-1) for Monterey (CA) occurred at 1116Z on Dec. 11th while the heaviest 6-hr precipitation (42.9 mm) occurred between 18Z on Dec. 11th to 00Z on Dec. 12th. By Dec. 12th, the storm was centered over Southern California.This storm was poorly forecast by many operational NWP models even 2-3 days in advance (Mass, 2014). The NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) showed considerably variability between successive model runs, and significant differences existed between Environment Canada, UK Met Office and ECMWF model forecasts. To study this extreme weather event, we used the Navy global (NAVGEM) and mesoscale (COAMPS®) NWP models, and compared the resulting forecasts to observations, satellite imagery and ECMWF (TIGGE) forecasts. NAVGEM, with Hybrid 4DVar, was run with a resolution of 31 km, and generated the boundary conditions for COAMPS® 4DVar and forecasts, that were run with triple-nested grids of 27, 9, and 3 km. The MesoWest data from the University of Utah were used for forecast verification, and to locate the times of highest precipitation and wind speed for different points along the coast. Both the online API and the python module were used to access and pull information from the data base. Overall, both NAVGEM and COAMPS® predicted the storm well. NAVGEM predicted the storm to be slower and more powerful than the analyses. The NAVGEM analysis and corresponding 5-day forecast accumulated 6-hr precipitation (Fig. 1) for Dec. 12th at 00Z agree well with the observed precipitation (4.29 cm) for Monterey (KMRY).

Lightning Activity Relative to the Microphysical and Kinematic Structure of Storms during a Thunder-Snow Episode on 29-30 November 2006

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emersic, C.; Macgorman, D.; Schuur, T.; Lund, N.; Payne, C.; Bruning, E.

2007-12-01

We have examined lightning activity relative to the microphysical and kinematic structure of a winter thunderstorm complex (a thunder-snow episode) observed east of Norman, Oklahoma during the evening of 29-30 November 2006. Polarimetric radar provided information about the type of particles present in various regions of the storms. The Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) recorded VHF signals produced by developing lightning channels. The times of arrival of these lightning signals across the array were then used to reconstruct the location and structure of lightning, and these reconstructions were overlaid with radar data to examine the relationship between lightning properties and storm particle types. Four storms in this winter complex have been examined. It was inferred from lightning structure that, in their mature stage, all cells we examined had a positive tripole electrical structure (an upper positive charge center, a midlevel negative charge center, and a lower positive charge center). The storms began with lightning activity in the lower dipole (lower positive and midlevel negative regions), but this evolved into lightning activity throughout the tripole structure within approximately 15-20 minutes. In the longer lived storms, the mature stage lasted for approximately 1.5-2 hours. During this stage, the lower positive charge region was situated less than 5 km above ground, the midlevel negative charge region was typically above 5 km, and the upper positive charge region was located at an altitude of less than 10 km in all the storm cells analyzed. The charge regions descended over approximately the last 30 minutes of lightning activity, the lower charge regions eventually reaching ground. This resulted in the loss of the lower positive charge center and the subsequent diminishment of the lower negative charge center. Lightning initiation usually coincided with the edges of regions of high reflectivity and was coincident with the presence of graupel and ice crystals in the lower dipole. Radar data suggest that ice crystals were the dominant charge carriers in the upper positive region.

Research on the impacts of past and future hurricanes on the endangered Florida manatee: Chapter 6J in Science and the storms-the USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langtimm, Catherine A.; Krohn, M. Dennis; Stith, Bradley M.; Reid, James P.; Beck, C.A.; Butler, Susan M.

2007-01-01

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) research on Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris) from 1982 through 1998 identified lower apparent survival rates for adult manatees during years when Hurricane Elena (1985), the March "Storm of the Century"(1993), and Hurricane Opal (1995) hit the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico. Although our analysis showed that a significant number of our monitored individual manatees failed to return to their winter homes after these storms, their actual fate remains unknown. With the aid of new satellite technology to track manatees during storms and new statistical techniques to determine survival and emigration rates, researchers are working to understand how hurricanes impact the endangered species by studying manatees caught in the path of the destructive hurricanes of 2004 and 2005.

Severe Storms Branch research report (April 1984 April 1985)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dubach, L. (Editor)

1985-01-01

The Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes Research Program is a program of integrated studies which are to achieve an improved understanding of the basic behavior of the atmosphere through the use of remotely sensed data and space technology. The program consist of four elements: (1) special observations and analysis of mesoscale systems; (20 the development of quanitative algorithms to use remotely sensed observations; (3) the development of new observing systems; and (4) numerical modeling. The Severe Storms Branch objectives are the improvement of the understanding, diagnosis, and prediction of a wide range of atmospheric storms, which includes severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, flash floods, tropical cyclones, and winter snowstorms. The research often shed light upon various aspects of local weather, such as fog, sea breezes, air pollution, showers, and other products of nonsevere cumulus cloud clusters. The part of the program devoted to boundary layer processes, gust front interactions, and soil moisture detection from satellites gives insights into storm growth and behavior.

Computer-Assisted Interactive Documentary and Performance Arts in Illimitable Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheridan, William Michael

Winter can bring significant snow storm systems or nor'easters to New England. Understanding each factor which can affect nor'easters will allow forecasters to better predict the subsequent weather conditions. One important parameter is the sea surface temperature (SST) of the Atlantic Ocean, where many of these systems strengthen and gain much of their structure. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to simulate four different nor'easters (Mar 2007, Dec 2007, Jan 2008, Dec 2010) using both observed and warmed SSTs. For the wanner SST simulations, the SSTs over the model domain were increased by 1°C. This change increased the total surface heat fluxes in all of the storms, and the resulting simulated storms were all more intense. The influence on the amount of snowfall over land was highly variable, depending on how close to the coastline the storms were and temperatures across the region.

Mitigating the health impacts of a natural disaster--the June 2007 long-weekend storm in the Hunter region of New South Wales.

PubMed

Cretikos, Michelle A; Merritt, Tony D; Main, Kelly; Eastwood, Keith; Winn, Linda; Moran, Lucille; Durrheim, David N

A severe storm that began on Thursday, 7 June 2007 brought heavy rains and gale-force winds to Newcastle, Gosford, Wyong, Sydney, and the Hunter Valley region of New South Wales. The storm caused widespread flooding and damage to houses, businesses, schools and health care facilities, and damaged critical infrastructure. Ten people died as a result of the storm, and approximately 6000 residents were evacuated. A natural disaster was declared in 19 local government areas, with damage expected to reach $1.5 billion. Additional demands were made on clinical health services, and interruption of the electricity supply to over 200,000 homes and businesses, interruption of water and gas supplies, and sewerage system pump failures presented substantial public health threats. A public health emergency operations centre was established by the Hunter New England Area Health Service to coordinate surveillance activities, respond to acute public health issues and prevent disease outbreaks. Public health activities focused on providing advice, cooperating with emergency service agencies, monitoring water quality and availability, preventing illness from sewage-contaminated flood water, assessing environmental health risks, coordinating the local government public health response, and surveillance for storm-related illness and disease outbreaks, including gastroenteritis. The local ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) radio station played a key role in disseminating public health advice. A household survey conducted within a fortnight of the storm established that household preparedness and storm warning systems could be improved.

Landslides, Floods, and Marine Effects of the Storm of January 3-5, 1982, in the San Francisco Bay Region, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellen, Stephen D.; Wieczorek, Gerald F.

1988-01-01

A catastrophic rainstorm in central California on January 3-5,1982, dropped as much as half the mean annual precipitation within a period of about 32 hours, triggering landslides and floods throughout 10 counties in the vicinity of the San Francisco Bay. More than 18,000 of the slides induced by the storm transformed into debris flows that swept down hillslopes or drainages with little warning. Debris flows damaged at least 100 homes, killed 14 residents, and carried a 15th victim into a creek. Shortly after rainfall ceased, more than 459,000 m3 of earth and rock slid from a mountainside above the community of Love Creek in Santa Cruz County, burying 10 people in their homes. Throughout the bay region, thousands of people vacated homes in hazardous areas, entire communities were isolated as roads were blocked, public water systems were destroyed, and power and telephone services were disrupted. Altogether, the storm damaged 6,300 homes, 1,500 businesses, and tens of kilometers of roads, bridges, and communication lines. Preliminary rough estimates of total storm damage, compiled for emergency purposes within 2 weeks of the storm, exceeded $280 million. Carefully documented direct costs from landslides exceeded $66 million; total costs from landslides certainly were greater and probably constituted a much larger proportion of the total storm damage than suggested by these disparate figures. Landslides accounted for 25 of the 33 deaths attributed to the storm.

Wildfire and MAMS data from STORMFEST

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jedlovec, Gary J.; Carlson, G. S.

1993-01-01

Early in 1992, NASA participated in an inter-agency field program called STORMFEST. The STORM-Fronts Experiment Systems Test (STORMFEST) was designed to test various systems critical to the success of STORM 1 in a very focused experiment. The field effort focused on winter storms in order to investigate the structure and evolution of fronts and associated mesoscale phenomena in the central United States. This document describes the data collected from two instruments onboard a NASA ER2 aircraft which was deployed out of Ellington Field in Houston, Texas from February 13 through March 15, 1992, in support of this experiment. The two instruments were the Wildfire (a.k.a. the moderate resolution imaging spectrometer-nadir (MODIS-N) Airborne Simulation (MAS)) and the Multispectral Atmospheric Mapping Sensor (MAMS).

NASA Sees a Wider-Eyed Typhoon Soudelor Near Taiwan

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

The MODIS instrument aboard NASA's Aqua satellite flew over Typhoon Soudelor on Aug. 7, 2015, at 4:40 UTC (12:40 a.m. EDT) as it was approaching Taiwan. Credits: NASA Goddard's MODIS Rapid Response Team Clouds in Typhoon Soudelor's western quadrant were already spreading over Taiwan early on August 7 when NASA's Aqua satellite passed overhead. Soudelor is expected to make landfall and cross central Taiwan today and make a second landfall in eastern China. NASA satellite imagery revealed that Soudelor's eye "opened" five more miles since August 4. On Aug. 7 at 4:40 UTC (12:40 a.m. EDT) the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer or MODIS instrument aboard NASA's Aqua satellite captured a visible-light image of Typhoon Soudelor as its western quadrant began brushing eastern Taiwan. The MODIS image showed Soudelor's 17-nautical-mile-wide eye and thick bands of powerful thunderstorms surrounded the storm and spiraled into the center. Just three days before, the eye was 5 nautical miles smaller when the storm was more intense. On Aug. 4 at 4:10 UTC (12:10 a.m. EDT) Aqua's MODIS image showed the eye was 12-nautical-mile-wide eye. At 1500 UTC (11 a.m. EDT) on August 7, 2015, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) noted that Typhoon Soudelor's maximum sustained winds increased from 90 knots (103.6 mph/166.7 kph) to 105 knots (120.8 mph / 194.5 kph). It was centered near 23.1 North latitude and 123.2 East longitude, about 183 nautical miles (210.6 miles/338.9 km) southeast of Taipei, Taiwan. It was moving to the west-northwest at 10 knots (11.5 mph/18.5 kph). For warnings and watches for Taiwan, visit the Central Weather Bureau website: www.cwb.gov.tw/eng/. For warnings in China, visit the China Meteorological Administration website: www.cma.gov.cn/en. Soudelor's final landfall is expected in eastern China on Saturday, August 8. Clouds in Typhoon Soudelor's western quadrant were already spreading over Taiwan early on August 7 when NASA's Aqua satellite passed overhead. Soudelor is expected to make landfall and cross central Taiwan today and make a second landfall in eastern China. NASA satellite imagery revealed that Soudelor's eye "opened" five more miles since August 4. On Aug. 7 at 4:40 UTC (12:40 a.m. EDT) the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer or MODIS instrument aboard NASA's Aqua satellite captured a visible-light image of Typhoon Soudelor as its western quadrant began brushing eastern Taiwan. The MODIS image showed Soudelor's 17-nautical-mile-wide eye and thick bands of powerful thunderstorms surrounded the storm and spiraled into the center. Just three days before, the eye was 5 nautical miles smaller when the storm was more intense. On Aug. 4 at 4:10 UTC (12:10 a.m. EDT) Aqua's MODIS image showed the eye was 12-nautical-mile-wide eye. At 1500 UTC (11 a.m. EDT) on August 7, 2015, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) noted that Typhoon Soudelor's maximum sustained winds increased from 90 knots (103.6 mph/166.7 kph) to 105 knots (120.8 mph / 194.5 kph). It was centered near 23.1 North latitude and 123.2 East longitude, about 183 nautical miles (210.6 miles/338.9 km) southeast of Taipei, Taiwan. It was moving to the west-northwest at 10 knots (11.5 mph/18.5 kph). For warnings and watches for Taiwan, visit the Central Weather Bureau website: www.cwb.gov.tw/eng/. For warnings in China, visit the China Meteorological Administration website: www.cma.gov.cn/en. Soudelor's final landfall is expected in eastern China on Saturday, August 8.

A survey of major east coast snowstorms, 1960-1983. Part 2: Case studies of eighteen storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kocin, P. J.; Uccellini, L. W.

1985-01-01

Snowfall, surface and upper air charts, and available satellite images are presented for eighteen major East Coast snowstorms that occurred between 1960 and 1983. The charts and descriptions of key fields are provided so that students, weather forecasters, and researchers alike can visualize how a large sample of major winter cyclones form and intensify. Although there are noted similarities in certain aspects of the surface and upper tropospheric development of the storms, significant case-to-case variability precludes the ability to effectively composite these weather systems.

Weather Advisory: Tornados | Poster

Cancer.gov

Summer months carry the threat of severe storms and tornados in our area. Take a few moments to consider how well you are prepared in the event of a tornado warning. The time to prepare for a tornado is before it happens. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) provides information on how to prepare and what to do in the event of a tornado. Take a few moments to read

Value of a dual-polarized gap-filling radar in support of southern California post-fire debris-flow warnings

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jorgensen, David P.; Hanshaw, Maiana N.; Schmidt, Kevin M.; Laber, Jayme L; Staley, Dennis M.; Kean, Jason W.; Restrepo, Pedro J.

2011-01-01

A portable truck-mounted C-band Doppler weather radar was deployed to observe rainfall over the Station Fire burn area near Los Angeles, California, during the winter of 2009/10 to assist with debris-flow warning decisions. The deployments were a component of a joint NOAA–U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) research effort to improve definition of the rainfall conditions that trigger debris flows from steep topography within recent wildfire burn areas. A procedure was implemented to blend various dual-polarized estimators of precipitation (for radar observations taken below the freezing level) using threshold values for differential reflectivity and specific differential phase shift that improves the accuracy of the rainfall estimates over a specific burn area sited with terrestrial tipping-bucket rain gauges. The portable radar outperformed local Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) National Weather Service network radars in detecting rainfall capable of initiating post-fire runoff-generated debris flows. The network radars underestimated hourly precipitation totals by about 50%. Consistent with intensity–duration threshold curves determined from past debris-flow events in burned areas in Southern California, the portable radar-derived rainfall rates exceeded the empirical thresholds over a wider range of storm durations with a higher spatial resolution than local National Weather Service operational radars. Moreover, the truck-mounted C-band radar dual-polarimetric-derived estimates of rainfall intensity provided a better guide to the expected severity of debris-flow events, based on criteria derived from previous events using rain gauge data, than traditional radar-derived rainfall approaches using reflectivity–rainfall relationships for either the portable or operational network WSR-88D radars. Part of the reason for the improvement was due to siting the radar closer to the burn zone than the WSR-88Ds, but use of the dual-polarimetric variables improved the rainfall estimation by ~12% over the use of traditional Z–R relationships.

Toward a National Early Warning System for Forest Disturbances Using Remotely Sensed Land-Surface Phenology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hargrove, W. W.; Spruce, J.

2010-12-01

A prototype National Early Warning System (EWS) for Forest Disturbances was established in 2010 by producing national maps showing potential forest disturbance across the conterminous United States at 231m resolution every 8 days. Each map is based on Land-Surface Phenology (LSP), calculated using temporally smoothed MODIS MOD13 imagery obtained over the preceding 24-day analysis window. Potential disturbance maps are generated by comparing a spatially and temporally specific historical expectation of normal NDVI "greenness" with NDVI "greenness" from a series of current satellite views. Three different disturbance products are produced using differing lengths of historical baseline periods to calculate the expected normal greenness. The short-term baseline products show only disturbances newer than one year ago, while the intermediate baseline products show disturbances since the prior three years, and the long-term baseline products show all disturbances over the MODIS historical period. A Forest Change Assessment Viewer website, http://ews.forestthreats.org/NPDE/NPDE.html, showcases the three most recent national disturbance maps in full spatial context. Although 2010 was a wet el Nino year without major forest problems, disturbances in 2010 in MI, NY, CO and LA will be highlighted. Forest disturbances caused by wildfire, hurricanes, tornadoes, hail, ice storms, and defoliating insects, including fall cankerworms, forest tent caterpillars, gypsy moths, baldcypress leafrollers and winter moths were successfully detected during the 2009 and 2010 field seasons. The EWS was used in 2010 to detect and alert Forest Health Monitoring (FHM) Aerial Disturbance Survey personnel to an otherwise-unknown outbreak of forest tent caterpillar and baldcypress leafroller in the Atchafalaya and Pearl River regions of southern Louisiana. A local FHM Program Coordinator verified these EWS-detected outbreaks. Many defoliator-induced disturbances were ephemeral, and were followed by recovery in LSP, presumably due to refoliation. 2009 Vegetation Disturbances mapped as percent change in max NDVI from June 10 - July 27 2000-2008

Braving the Elements: Protecting Schools against Weather-Related Disasters.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Breighner, Mary

1997-01-01

Discusses common weather-related hazards (floods, windstorms, and winter storms) and provides some steps administrators can take to protect their schools. Suggests administrators periodically assess their school's commitment to loss control, housekeeping, suitable building construction and reinforcement, sprinkler systems, water supply,…

Mobility and safety impacts of winter storm events in a freeway environment.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-02-01

Several factors influence a driver's decision to travel, choice of vehicle speed, and the safety of a particular trip. These factors include, among others, the trip purpose, time of day, traffic volumes, weather and roadway conditions, and the range ...

Impacts of using salt and salt brine for roadway deicing.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-06-01

Idaho Transportation Department (ITD) uses a variety of methods to help ensure safe travel on the state highway system : following winter storm events. These methods include plowing, use of sand to improve traction, and use of salt and chemical : com...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miller, Arthur; Cayan, Daniel; Pierce, David

This project addressed the ability of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3 and CCSM4), the Community Earth System Model (CESM), and other models to simulate the processes involved in controlling winter storms affecting the U.S. West Coast as well as other precipitation processes in the climate system.

Data mining and gap analysis for weather responsive traffic management studies.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-12-01

Weather causes a variety of impacts on the transportation system. An Oak Ridge National Laboratory study estimated the : delay experienced by American drivers due to snow, ice, and fog in 1999 at 46 million hours. While severe winter storms, : hurric...

On the role of sea-state in bubble-mediated air-sea gas flux during a winter storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Jun-Hong; Emerson, Steven R.; D'Asaro, Eric A.; McNeil, Craig L.; Harcourt, Ramsey R.; Sullivan, Peter P.; Yang, Bo; Cronin, Meghan F.

2017-04-01

Oceanic bubbles play an important role in the air-sea exchange of weakly soluble gases at moderate to high wind speeds. A Lagrangian bubble model embedded in a large eddy simulation model is developed to study bubbles and their influence on dissolved gases in the upper ocean. The transient evolution of mixed-layer dissolved oxygen and nitrogen gases at Ocean Station Papa (50°N, 145°W) during a winter storm is reproduced with the model. Among different physical processes, gas bubbles are the most important in elevating dissolved gas concentrations during the storm, while atmospheric pressure governs the variability of gas saturation anomaly (the relative departure of dissolved gas concentration from the saturation concentration). For the same wind speed, bubble-mediated gas fluxes are larger during rising wind with smaller wave age than during falling wind with larger wave age. Wave conditions are the primary cause for the bubble gas flux difference: when wind strengthens, waves are less-developed with respect to wind, resulting in more frequent large breaking waves. Bubble generation in large breaking waves is favorable for a large bubble-mediated gas flux. The wave-age dependence is not included in any existing bubble-mediated gas flux parameterizations.

The role of volcanic aerosols and relativistic electrons in modulating winter storm vorticity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tinsley, Brian A.; Zhou, Limin; Liu, Weiping

2012-09-01

Small changes in the vorticity of winter storms, responding to solar wind variations, are found in winters from 1957 to 2011, and are greater for winters with higher levels of stratospheric volcanic aerosols. Using 1993-2011 data, the response of the vorticity area index (VAI) is shown to be of larger amplitude when the days of minima in the relativistic electron flux (REF) precipitating from the radiation belts are used, instead of heliospheric current sheet (HCS) crossings, as key days in superposed epoch analyses. The HCS crossings mostly occur within a few days of the REF minima. The VAI is an objective measure of the area of high cyclonic vorticity, and for the present work is derived from ERA-40 and ERA-Interim reanalyses of global meteorological data. The VAI dependencies on the stratospheric aerosol content (SAC) and the REF are consistent with a model in which the ionosphere-earth current density (Jz) affects cloud microphysics. One of the ways in which Jz is modulated is by changes in stratospheric column resistance (S), which is increased by stratospheric aerosols. Because S is in series with the tropospheric column resistance (T), Jz modulation by REF requires that S be not negligible with respect to T. So the Jz modulation and the VAI response appear when the SAC is very high, or the REF reductions (which also increase S) are very deep, and when the product of the SAC and the reciprocal of the REF exceeds a threshold value dependent on T.

The return periods and risk assessment of severe dust storms in Inner Mongolia with consideration of the main contributing factors.

PubMed

Liu, Xueqin; Li, Ning; Xie, Wei; Wu, Jidong; Zhang, Peng; Ji, Zhonghui

2012-09-01

This study presents a methodology for return period analysis and risk assessment of severe dust storm disaster. Meteorological observation data, soil moisture data, and remote sensing data from 30 meteorological stations in Inner Mongolia (western China) from 1985 to 2006 were used for the study. A composite index of severe dust storm disaster (Index I (SDS)) based on the influence mechanisms of the main contributing factors was developed by using the analytic hierarchy process and the weighted comprehensive method, and the hazard risk curves (i.e., the transcendental probability curves of I (SDS)) for the 30 stations were established using the parameter estimation method. We then analyzed the risk of the occurrence of severe dust storm under different scenarios of 5-, 10-, 20-, and 50-year return periods. The results show that the risk decreased from west to east across Inner Mongolia, and there are four severe dust storm occurrence peak value centers, including Guaizihu, Jilantai, Hailisu, and Zhurihe-Erenhot. The severity of dust storms in seven places will be intolerable in the 50-year return period scenario and in three places in the 20-year return period scenario. These results indicate that these locations should concentrate forces on disaster prevention, monitoring, and early warning. The I (SDS) was developed as an easily understandable tool useful for the assessment and comparison of the relative risk of severe dust storm disasters in different areas. The risk assessment was specifically intended to support local and national government agencies in their management of severe dust storm disasters in their efforts to (1) make resource allocation decisions, (2) make high-level planning decisions, and (3) raise public awareness of severe dust storm risk.

Assessment and comparison of extreme sea levels and waves during the 2013/2014 storm season in two UK coastal regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wadey, M. P.; Brown, J. M.; Haigh, I. D.; Dolphin, T.; Wisse, P.

2015-04-01

The extreme sea levels and waves experienced around the UK's coast during the 2013/2014 winter caused extensive coastal flooding and damage. In such circumstances, coastal managers seek to place such extremes in relation to the anticipated standards of flood protection, and the long-term recovery of the natural system. In this context, return periods are often used as a form of guidance. We therefore provide these levels for the winter storms, as well as discussing their application to the given data sets and case studies (two UK case study sites: Sefton, northwest England; and Suffolk, east England). We use tide gauge records and wave buoy data to compare the 2013/2014 storms with return periods from a national dataset, and also generate joint probabilities of sea level and waves, incorporating the recent events. The UK was hit at a national scale by the 2013/2014 storms, although the return periods differ with location. We also note that the 2013/2014 high water and waves were extreme due to the number of events, as well as the extremity of the 5 December 2013 "Xaver" storm, which had a very high return period at both case study sites. Our return period analysis shows that the national scale impact of this event is due to its coincidence with spring high tide at multiple locations as the tide and storm propagated across the continental shelf. Given that this event is such an outlier in the joint probability analyses of these observed data sets, and that the season saw several events in close succession, coastal defences appear to have provided a good level of protection. This type of assessment should be recorded alongside details of defence performance and upgrade, with other variables (e.g. river levels at estuarine locations) included and appropriate offsetting for linear trends (e.g. mean sea level rise) so that the storm-driven component of coastal flood events can be determined. Local offsetting of the mean trends in sea level allows long-term comparison of storm severity and also enables an assessment of how sea level rise is influencing return levels over time, which is important when considering long-term coastal resilience in strategic management plans.

Post-storm evolution a high-energy remote sandy beach backed by a high and wide coastal dune

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castelle, Bruno; Bujan, Stéphane; Ferreira, Sophie

2016-04-01

During the winter 2013/2014, the high-energy meso-macrotidal remote beach of Truc Vert (SW France) was exposed to the most energetic wave conditions over at least the last 65 years with, for instance, the 2-month averaged significant wave height at the coast exceeding 3.6 m. Unprecedented beach and dune erosion was observed with the notable presence of a 700-m long localized megacusp embayment with the erosion scarp height exceeding 6 m in its centre where the dune retreat reached 30 m. Both the beach and the coastal dune eroded by about 90 m3/m within 3 months of severe storm activity, that is, a total beach-dune system sediment loss reaching 180m3/m. Beach and dune evolution after the winter 2013/2014 was inspected from March 2014 to November 2015 using bimonthly topographic surveys covering 1500+ m alongshore. 1.5 years after the winter 2014/2015, the beach-dune system did not fully recover to its pre-winter 2014/2015 level. The dune accreted by only a few m3/m while the beach accreted by an impressive amount of approximately 150m3/m, to reach a total volume that was only exceeded in 2012 within our full 10-year time series. Despite little volumetric changes, the dune showed significant morphological change through slumping and onshore wave- and wind-driven sediment transport. Seasonal natural revegetation was observed with large dune grass growth into the summer berm and within the erosion scarp with slumped clots of dune grass re-establishing their growth during the winter 2014/2015. In late 2015, the onset of morphological foredune development was observed. It is anticipated that, if Truc Vert is not exposed to a cluster of severe storms during the winter 2015/2016, the coastal dune will increase in volume within 2016 at a much higher rate than during 2015. Last but not least, starting in late 2015, the coastal dune of Truc Vert is now intensively monitored through regular 4-km long UAV photogrammetric surveys. Given that, nowadays, some scientists advocate that dunes maintained as dynamic systems retaining diversity and complexity not only provide more ecosystem services but can even be more resistant to marine erosion and more resilient than actively managed dunes, it is the objective to test different dune management strategies at Truc Vert, including no dune maintenance.

Atmospheric Science: It's More than Meteorology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, David R.; Krockover, Gerald H.

1988-01-01

Indicates that atmospheric science is not just forcasting the weather. Gives an overview of current topics in meteorology including ozone depletion, acid precipitation, winter cyclones, severe local storms, the greenhouse effect, wind shear and microbursts. Outlines the Atmospheric Sciences Education Program at Purdue University to produce…

Children and Natural Disasters: A Primer for School Psychologists

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Evans, Linda; Oehler-Stinnett, Judy

2006-01-01

Worldwide children are impacted by natural disasters, including hurricanes, floods, tornadoes, earthquakes, wildfires, landslides and sandstorms, winter and severe storms, heat waves, volcanoes and tsunamis. School psychologists should understand natural disaster effects, such as economic loss, relocation and health concerns and mental health…

75 FR 44994 - Pennsylvania Disaster Number PA-00031

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-30

... SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION [Disaster Declaration 12121 and 12122] Pennsylvania Disaster Number... PENNSYLVANIA (FEMA--1898--DR), dated 04/16/2010. Incident: Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorms. Incident Period... Non-Profit organizations in the State of PENNSYLVANIA, dated 04/16/2010, is hereby amended to include...

Climate Change Impacts on Runoff Generation for the Design of Sustainable Stormwater Infrastructure

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-06-01

Climate change over the Pacific Northwest is expected to alter the hydrological cycle, such as an increase in winter flooding potential due to more precipitation falling as snow and more frequent rain on snow events. Existing infrastructure for storm...

Assessment of the Barren Ground Caribou Die-off During Winter 2015-2016 Using Passive Microwave Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dolant, C.; Montpetit, B.; Langlois, A.; Brucker, L.; Zolina, O.; Johnson, C. A.; Royer, A.; Smith, P.

2018-05-01

In summer 2016, more than 50 Arctic Barren Ground caribous were found dead on Prince Charles Island (Nunavut, Canada), a species recently classified as threatened. Neither predator nor sign of diseases was observed and reported. The main hypothesis is that caribous were not able to access food due to a very dense snow surface, created by a strong storm system in spring. Using satellite microwave data, a significant increase in brightness temperature polarization ratio at 19 and 37 GHz was observed in spring 2016 (60% higher than previous two winter seasons). Based on microwave radiative transfer simulations, such anomaly can be explained with a very dense snow surface. This is consistent with the succession of storms and strong winds highlighted in ERA-Interim over Prince Charles Island in spring 2016. Using several sources of data, this study shows that changes in snow conditions explain the caribou die-off due to restricted foraging.

Seismic detection of tornadoes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tatom, F. B.

1993-01-01

Tornadoes represent the most violent of all forms of atmospheric storms, each year resulting in hundreds of millions of dollars in property damage and approximately one hundred fatalities. In recent years, considerable success has been achieved in detecting tornadic storms by means of Doppler radar. However, radar systems cannot determine when a tornado is actually in contact with the ground, expect possibly at extremely close range. At the present time, human observation is the only truly reliable way of knowing that a tornado is actually on the ground. However, considerable evidence exists indicating that a tornado in contact with the ground produces a significant seismic signal. If such signals are generated, the seismic detection and warning of an imminent tornado can become a distinct possibility. 

The Pan-American Center for the WMO Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sprigg, W. A.

2013-05-01

A World Meteorological Organization system has been established to coordinate knowledge, data, and information concerning airborne dust, the environmental conditions and storms that generate it, the consequences of it, and the means to mitigate and cope with it. Three nodes, or foci, of collaboration cover the globe: for Asia, administered from the China Meteorological Administration in Beijing; for Africa, Europe and the Middle East, administered from the Barcelona Supercomputing Center; and for Pan-America, administered from Chapman University in Orange, California. Pan-American Center priorities include understanding the sources of windblown dust and particulates, simulating and predicting dust events, and serving the health, safety and environmental communities that may benefit from the WMO system.

Storm surge along the Pacific coast of North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bromirski, Peter D.; Flick, Reinhard E.; Miller, Arthur J.

2017-01-01

Storm surge is an important factor that contributes to coastal flooding and erosion. Storm surge magnitude along eastern North Pacific coasts results primarily from low sea level pressure (SLP). Thus, coastal regions where high surge occurs identify the dominant locations where intense storms make landfall, controlled by storm track across the North Pacific. Here storm surge variability along the Pacific coast of North America is characterized by positive nontide residuals at a network of tide gauge stations from southern California to Alaska. The magnitudes of mean and extreme storm surge generally increase from south to north, with typically high amplitude surge north of Cape Mendocino and lower surge to the south. Correlation of mode 1 nontide principal component (PC1) during winter months (December-February) with anomalous SLP over the northeast Pacific indicates that the dominant storm landfall region is along the Cascadia/British Columbia coast. Although empirical orthogonal function spatial patterns show substantial interannual variability, similar correlation patterns of nontide PC1 over the 1948-1975 and 1983-2014 epochs with anomalous SLP suggest that, when considering decadal-scale time periods, storm surge and associated tracks have generally not changed appreciably since 1948. Nontide PC1 is well correlated with PC1 of both anomalous SLP and modeled wave height near the tide gauge stations, reflecting the interrelationship between storms, surge, and waves. Weaker surge south of Cape Mendocino during the 2015-2016 El Niño compared with 1982-1983 may result from changes in Hadley circulation. Importantly from a coastal impacts perspective, extreme storm surge events are often accompanied by high waves.

Israeli Arab and Jewish youth knowledge and opinion about alcohol warning labels: pre-intervention data.

PubMed

Weiss, S

1997-01-01

This article presents baseline data on the opinion toward alcohol beverage warning labels and on levels of knowledge of the risks discussed in the contents of the labels prior to the labels' introduction, and on levels of knowledge of additional alcohol-related hazards not included in the proposed warning labels, among a sample of 3065 adolescents of four religions living in the northern region of Israel. About 2220 Arab participants (Moslems, Christians and Druze) and 845 Jewish respondents answered in the winter of 1996 a Hebrew version of an American questionnaire, which had been used to measure levels of knowledge of the label in the United States. More respondents were in favour of warning labels on alcohol containers than on advertisements. Arabs as a group were more in favour of warning labels on alcohol containers than Jews. The initial knowledge levels among the participants were not very high, especially concerning the item 'Drinking impairs the ability to operate machinery' (74.4%) which is included on the proposed warning label, and concerning two hazards which are not included: 'Drinking increases risk of cancer' (54.6%) and 'Drinking increases risk of high blood pressure' (60.4%). Abstainers knew more than drinkers that 'Pregnant women should not drink', 'Drinking increases risk of cancer' and 'Alcohol in combination with other drugs is hazardous'. Implications for public health are discussed and alternative warning messages that might be used to inform the Israeli public of several less well-known hazards are suggested.

North Atlantic storm track variability and its association to the North Atlantic oscillation and climate variability of northern Europe

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rogers, J.C.

The primary mode of North Atlantic track variability is identified using rotated principal component analysis (RPCA) on monthly fields of root-mean-squares of daily high-pass filtered (2-8-day periods) sea level pressures (SLP) for winters (December-February) 1900-92. It is examined in terms of its association with (1) monthly mean SLP fields, (2) regional low-frequency teleconnections, and (3) the seesaw in winter temperatures between Greenland and northern Europe. 32 refs., 9 figs.

Establishment of turbidity forecasting model and early-warning system for source water turbidity management using back-propagation artificial neural network algorithm and probability analysis.

PubMed

Yang, Tsung-Ming; Fan, Shu-Kai; Fan, Chihhao; Hsu, Nien-Sheng

2014-08-01

The purpose of this study is to establish a turbidity forecasting model as well as an early-warning system for turbidity management using rainfall records as the input variables. The Taipei Water Source Domain was employed as the study area, and ANOVA analysis showed that the accumulative rainfall records of 1-day Ping-lin, 2-day Ping-lin, 2-day Fei-tsui, 2-day Shi-san-gu, 2-day Tai-pin and 2-day Tong-hou were the six most significant parameters for downstream turbidity development. The artificial neural network model was developed and proven capable of predicting the turbidity concentration in the investigated catchment downstream area. The observed and model-calculated turbidity data were applied to developing the turbidity early-warning system. Using a previously determined turbidity as the threshold, the rainfall criterion, above which the downstream turbidity would possibly exceed this respective threshold turbidity, for the investigated rain gauge stations was determined. An exemplary illustration demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed turbidity early-warning system as a precautionary alarm of possible significant increase of downstream turbidity. This study is the first report of the establishment of the turbidity early-warning system. Hopefully, this system can be applied to source water turbidity forecasting during storm events and provide a useful reference for subsequent adjustment of drinking water treatment operation.

Impacts of storm chronology on the morphological changes of the Formby beach and dune system, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dissanayake, P.; Brown, J.; Karunarathna, H.

2015-07-01

Impacts of storm chronology within a storm cluster on beach/dune erosion are investigated by applying the state-of-the-art numerical model XBeach to the Sefton coast, northwest England. Six temporal storm clusters of different storm chronologies were formulated using three storms observed during the 2013/2014 winter. The storm power values of these three events nearly halve from the first to second event and from the second to third event. Cross-shore profile evolution was simulated in response to the tide, surge and wave forcing during these storms. The model was first calibrated against the available post-storm survey profiles. Cumulative impacts of beach/dune erosion during each storm cluster were simulated by using the post-storm profile of an event as the pre-storm profile for each subsequent event. For the largest event the water levels caused noticeable retreat of the dune toe due to the high water elevation. For the other events the greatest evolution occurs over the bar formations (erosion) and within the corresponding troughs (deposition) of the upper-beach profile. The sequence of events impacting the size of this ridge-runnel feature is important as it consequently changes the resilience of the system to the most extreme event that causes dune retreat. The highest erosion during each single storm event was always observed when that storm initialised the storm cluster. The most severe storm always resulted in the most erosion during each cluster, no matter when it occurred within the chronology, although the erosion volume due to this storm was reduced when it was not the primary event. The greatest cumulative cluster erosion occurred with increasing storm severity; however, the variability in cumulative cluster impact over a beach/dune cross section due to storm chronology is minimal. Initial storm impact can act to enhance or reduce the system resilience to subsequent impact, but overall the cumulative impact is controlled by the magnitude and number of the storms. This model application provides inter-survey information about morphological response to repeated storm impact. This will inform local managers of the potential beach response and dune vulnerability to variable storm configurations.

Impacts of storm chronology on the morphological changes of the Formby beach and dune system, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dissanayake, P.; Brown, J.; Karunarathna, H.

2015-04-01

Impacts of storm chronology within a storm cluster on beach/dune erosion are investigated by applying the state-of-the-art numerical model XBeach to the Sefton coast, northwest England. Six temporal storm clusters of different storm chronologies were formulated using three storms observed during the 2013/14 winter. The storm power values of these three events nearly halve from the first to second event and from the second to third event. Cross-shore profile evolution was simulated in response to the tide, surge and wave forcing during these storms. The model was first calibrated against the available post-storm survey profiles. Cumulative impacts of beach/dune erosion during each storm cluster were simulated by using the post-storm profile of an event as the pre-storm profile for each subsequent event. For the largest event the water levels caused noticeable retreat of the dune toe due to the high water elevation. For the other events the greatest evolution occurs over the bar formations (erosion) and within the corresponding troughs (deposition) of the upper beach profile. The sequence of events impacting the size of this ridge-runnel feature is important as it consequently changes the resilience of the system to the most extreme event that causes dune retreat. The highest erosion during each single storm event was always observed when that storm initialised the storm cluster. The most severe storm always resulted in the most erosion during each cluster, no matter when it occurred within the chronology, although the erosion volume due to this storm was reduced when it was not the primary event. The greatest cumulative cluster erosion occurred with increasing storm severity; however, the variability in cumulative cluster impact over a beach/dune cross-section due to storm chronology is minimal. Initial storm impact can act to enhance or reduce the system resilience to subsequent impact, but overall the cumulative impact is controlled by the magnitude and number of the storms. This model application provides inter-survey information about morphological response to repeated storm impact. This will inform local managers of the potential beach response and dune vulnerability to variable storm configurations.

Extreme Event impacts on Seafloor Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canals, Miquel; Sanchez-Vidal, Anna; Calafat, Antoni; Pedrosa-Pàmies, Rut; Lastras, Galderic

2013-04-01

The Mediterranean region is among those presenting the highest concentration of cyclogenesis during the northern hemisphere winter, thus is frequently subjected to sudden events of extreme weather. The highest frequency of storm winds occur in its northwestern basin, and is associated to NE and NW storms. The occurrence of such extreme climatic events represents an opportunity of high scientific value to investigate how natural processes at their peaks of activity transfer matter and energy, as well as how impact ecosystems. Due to the approximately NE-SW orientation of the western Mediterranean coast, windforced motion coming from eastern storms generate the most intense waves and with very long fetch in the continental shelf and the coast, causing beach erosion, overwash and inundation of low-lying areas, and damage to infrastructures and coastal resources. On December 26, 2008 a huge storm afforded us the opportunity to understand the effect of storms on the deep sea ecosystems, as impacted violently an area of the Catalan coast covered by a dense network of monitoring devices including sediment traps and currentmeters. The storm, with measured wind gusts of more than 70 km h-1 and associated storm surge reaching 8 m, lead to the remobilisation of a shallow water large reservoir of marine organic carbon associated to fine particles and to its redistribution across the deep basin, and also ignited the motion of large amounts of coarse shelf sediment resulting in the abrasion and burial of benthic communities. In addition to eastern storms, increasing evidence has accumulated during the last few years showing the significance of Dense Shelf Water Cascading (DSWC), a type of marine current driven exclusively by seawater density contrast caused by strong and persistent NW winds, as a key driver of the deep Mediterranean Sea in many aspects. A network of mooring lines with sediment traps and currentmeters deployed in the Cap de Creus canyon in winter 2005-06 recorded a major DSWC event, the latest to date. Data show that DSWC modifies the properties of intermediate and deep waters, carries massive amounts of organic carbon to the basin thus fuelling the deep ecosystem, transports huge quantities of coarse and fine sedimentary particles that abrade canyon floors and rise the load of suspended particles, and also exports pollutants from the coastal area to deeper compartment. Our findings demonstrate that both types of climate-driven extreme events (coastal storms and DSWC) are highly efficient in transporting organic carbon from shallow to deep, thus contributing to its sequestration, and have the potential to tremendously impact the deep-sea ecosystems.

A socioeconomic assessment of climate change-enhanced coastal storm hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baron, H. M.; Ruggiero, P.; Harris, E.

2010-12-01

Every winter, coastal communities in the U.S. Pacific Northwest are at risk to coastal change hazards caused by extreme storm events. These storms have the potential to erode large portions of the primary foredune that may be a community’s only barrier from the ocean. Furthermore, the frequency and magnitude of significant erosion events appears to be increasing, likely due to climate-related processes such as sea level rise and increases in storm wave heights. To reduce risks posed by winter storms, it is not only important to determine the impending physical impacts but it is also necessary to explore the vulnerability of the social-ecological system in the context of these hazards. Here we assess the exposure to both annually occurring and extreme storm events at various planning timelines using a methodology that incorporates the effect of a variable and changing climate on future total water levels. To do this, we have developed a suite of climate change scenarios involving a range of projections for the wave climate, global sea level rise, and the occurrence of El Niño events through 2100. Simple geometric models are then used to conservatively determine the extent of erosion that may occur for a given combination of these climatic factors. We integrate the physical hazards with socioeconomic data using a geographic information system (GIS) in order to quantify societal vulnerability, characterized by the exposure and sensitivity of a community, which is based on the distribution of people, property, and resources. Here we focus on a 14 km stretch of dune-backed coast in northwest Oregon, from Cascade Head to Cape Kiwanda—the location of two communities that, historically, have experienced problematic storm-induced coastal change, Pacific City and Neskowin. Although both of these communities have similar exposure to coastal change hazards at the present, Neskowin is more than twice as sensitive to erosion because almost all of its residents and community assets are located within ~230 m of a narrow beach behind a rip rap revetment. Clearly, any significant losses sustained during an extreme storm could be devastating to the community, and these impacts will likely be amplified in the future. This information is being used to inform land-use planners as well as coastal community residents and visitors about potential coastal change hazards in order to make communities more resistant to future extreme storm events as they are influenced by a changing climate.

Integration of the Total Lightning Jump Algorithm into Current Operational Warning Environment Conceptual Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schultz, Chris; Carey, Larry; Schultz, Elise V.; Stano, Geoffrey; Gatlin, Patrick N.; Kozlowski, Danielle M.; Blakeslee, Rich J.; Goodman, Steve

2013-01-01

Key points this analysis will address: 1) What physically is going on in the cloud when there is a jump in lightning? -- Updraft variations, Ice fluxes 2) How do these processes fit in with severe storm conceptual models? 3) What would this information provide an end user? --Relate LJA to radar observations, like changes in reflectivity, MESH, VIL, etc. based multi -Doppler derived physical relationships

Monitoring and modeling conditions for regional shallow landslide initiation in the San Francisco Bay area, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, B. D.; Stock, J. D.; Godt, J. W.

2012-12-01

Intense winter storms in the San Francisco Bay area (SFBA) of California often trigger widespread landsliding, including debris flows that originate as shallow (<3 m) landslides. The strongest storms result in the loss of lives and millions of dollars in damage. Whereas precipitation-based rainfall intensity-duration landslide initiation thresholds are available for the SFBA, antecedent soil moisture conditions also play a major role in determining the likelihood for landslide generation from a given storm. Previous research has demonstrated that antecedent triggering conditions can be obtained using pre-storm precipitation thresholds (e.g., 250-400 mm of seasonal pre-storm rainfall). However, these types of thresholds do not account for the often cyclic pattern of wetting and drying that can occur early in the winter storm season (i.e. October - December), and which may skew the applicability of precipitation-only based thresholds. To account for these cyclic and constantly evolving soil moisture conditions, we have pursued methods to measure soil moisture directly and integrate these measurements into predictive analyses. During the past three years, the USGS installed a series of four subsurface hydrology monitoring stations in shallow landslide-prone locations of the SFBA to establish a soil-moisture-based antecedent threshold. In addition to soil moisture sensors, the monitoring stations are each equipped with piezometers to record positive pore water pressure that is likely required for shallow landslide initiation and a rain gauge to compare storm intensities with existing precipitation-based thresholds. Each monitoring station is located on a natural, grassy hillslope typically composed of silty sands, underlain by sandstone, sloping at approximately 30°, and with a depth to bedrock of approximately 1 meter - conditions typical of debris flow generation in the SFBA. Our observations reveal that various locations respond differently to seasonal precipitation, with some areas (e.g., Marin County) remaining at higher levels of saturation for longer periods of time during the winter compared to other areas (e.g., the East Bay Hills). In general, this coincides directly with relative precipitation totals in each region (i.e., Marin county typically receives more rainfall over a longer period of time than the East Bay). In those areas that are saturated for longer periods, the shallow landslide hazard is prolonged because these conditions are first needed for storm-related precipitation to subsequently generate positive pore pressure on the failure plane. Both piezometric field measurements and limit equilibrium slope stability analyses indicate that positive pore pressure is required for most shallow landslide failures to occur in the study regions. Based on measurements from two of the sites, our analyses further indicate that at least 2 kPa of pressure is required to trigger shallow landsliding. We measured this pressure at one of our sites in 2011, where more than 30 landslides, including several that mobilized into debris flows, occurred. Additional monitoring at these sites will be used to further constrain and refine antecedent moisture-based thresholds for shallow landslide initiation.

Chantal Loses Closed Circulation, Still Poses Threats to Hispaniola

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

Chantal's satellite presentation has deteriorated markedly this morning and is barely classifiable by the Dvorak Technique. Forecasted strong westerly shear and interactions with land over the next couple of days should cause further weakening of the storm as it transitions back into a tropical wave. Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for the entire coast of the Dominican Republic, the entire coast of Haiti, Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas. This image was taken by GOES West at 1200Z on July 10, 2013. Copy credit: NOAA Photo credit: Credit: NOAA/NASA GOES Project More info about the storm: 1.usa.gov/12mvQcC NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Severe weather study. [for evaluating dissemination of storm forecasts meteorological services

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mills, C. J.

1973-01-01

Current methods of severe weather information dissemination and the impact of this information on the general public are studied. The study is based on the responses of the general public and the local broadcasters to a severe weather incident which occurred on August 14, 1972 in the Dane County-Madison Metropolitan area. The results of the study were somewhat startling. From the sample, for instance, it was found that 45% of the Dane County population was not aware of the severe thunderstorm warning. In this case this may or may not have been critical, but had the storm been extremely severe or had a tornado and flooding been associated with the storm, a large segment of the population would have been in great danger. What this study has shown, is that the real problem with the dissemination of severe weather information is not the lack of it, but the inability to transfer it in useful form to an overwhelming majority of the general public.

Regional analysis of social characteristics for evacuation resource planning: ARkStorm scenario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wein, Anne; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Allan Baez,; Sleeter, Rachel

2016-01-01

Local planning is insufficient for regional catastrophes; regional exercises are needed to test emergency plans and decision-making structures. The ARkStorm scenario would trigger a mass evacuation that would be complicated by the social characteristics of populations [e.g., vehicle ownership, age, poverty, English language limitation (ELL), and shelter needs]. Land cover data and dasymetric mapping improves the allocation of residential populations and their social characteristics to the ARkStorm flood zone in 21 counties in California. Numbers and concentrations of county, urban, and rural residents exposed to flooding as well as populations in and out of the scenario flood zone are profiled. The results inform mass evacuation planning by providing a means to (1) examine the sufficiency of mutual aid agreements, (2) underscore planning for carless populations, and (3) tailor multilingual communication strategies. The various geographical distinctions emphasize different challenges throughout the region. It will be important to investigate behavioral responses to warnings, identify evacuation constraints (e.g., shelter capacity versus need), and obtain comparable data on transient populations.

The North Alabama Severe Thunderstorm Observations, Research, and Monitoring Network (STORMnet)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodman, S. J.; Blakeslee, R.; Christian, H.; Boccippio, D.; Koshak, W.; Bailey, J.; Hall, J.; Bateman, M.; McCaul, E.; Buechler, D.;

STORMVEX: The Storm Peak Lab Cloud Property Validation Experiment Science and Operations Plan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mace, J; Matrosov, S; Shupe, M

2010-09-29

During the Storm Peak Lab Cloud Property Validation Experiment (STORMVEX), a substantial correlative data set of remote sensing observations and direct in situ measurements from fixed and airborne platforms will be created in a winter season, mountainous environment. This will be accomplished by combining mountaintop observations at Storm Peak Laboratory and the airborne National Science Foundation-supported Colorado Airborne Multi-Phase Cloud Study campaign with collocated measurements from the second ARM Mobile Facility (AMF2). We describe in this document the operational plans and motivating science for this experiment, which includes deployment of AMF2 to Steamboat Springs, Colorado. The intensive STORMVEX field phasemore » will begin nominally on 1 November 2010 and extend to approximately early April 2011.« less

Precipitation Cluster Distributions: Current Climate Storm Statistics and Projected Changes Under Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, Kevin Martin

The total amount of precipitation integrated across a precipitation cluster (contiguous precipitating grid cells exceeding a minimum rain rate) is a useful measure of the aggregate size of the disturbance, expressed as the rate of water mass lost or latent heat released, i.e. the power of the disturbance. Probability distributions of cluster power are examined during boreal summer (May-September) and winter (January-March) using satellite-retrieved rain rates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 and Special Sensor Microwave Imager and Sounder (SSM/I and SSMIS) programs, model output from the High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HIRAM, roughly 0.25-0.5 0 resolution), seven 1-2° resolution members of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) experiment, and National Center for Atmospheric Research Large Ensemble (NCAR LENS). Spatial distributions of precipitation-weighted centroids are also investigated in observations (TRMM-3B42) and climate models during winter as a metric for changes in mid-latitude storm tracks. Observed probability distributions for both seasons are scale-free from the smallest clusters up to a cutoff scale at high cluster power, after which the probability density drops rapidly. When low rain rates are excluded by choosing a minimum rain rate threshold in defining clusters, the models accurately reproduce observed cluster power statistics and winter storm tracks. Changes in behavior in the tail of the distribution, above the cutoff, are important for impacts since these quantify the frequency of the most powerful storms. End-of-century cluster power distributions and storm track locations are investigated in these models under a "business as usual" global warming scenario. The probability of high cluster power events increases by end-of-century across all models, by up to an order of magnitude for the highest-power events for which statistics can be computed. For the three models in the suite with continuous time series of high resolution output, there is substantial variability on when these probability increases for the most powerful precipitation clusters become detectable, ranging from detectable within the observational period to statistically significant trends emerging only after 2050. A similar analysis of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis 2 and SSM/I-SSMIS rain rate retrievals in the recent observational record does not yield reliable evidence of trends in high-power cluster probabilities at this time. Large impacts to mid-latitude storm tracks are projected over the West Coast and eastern North America, with no less than 8 of the 9 models examined showing large increases by end-of-century in the probability density of the most powerful storms, ranging up to a factor of 6.5 in the highest range bin for which historical statistics are computed. However, within these regional domains, there is considerable variation among models in pinpointing exactly where the largest increases will occur.

Evaluation of Mixed-Phase Microphysics Within Winter Storms using Field Data and In Situ Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colle, Brian A.; Yu, Ruyi; Molthan, Andrew L.; Nesbitt, Stephen

2014-01-01

It is hypothesized that microphysical predictions have greater uncertainties/errors when there are complex interactions that result from mixedphased processes like riming. Use Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission ground validation studies in Ontario, Canada to verify and improve parameterizations

Coping with historic drought in California rangelands

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The current drought in California is of historic proportion, both in its intensity and its effect on agriculture. Although storms of the 2015-16 winter rainfall season have provided modest drought relief, their effects on alleviating the multi-year drought are unknown. Short- and mid-term forecasts...

Microbial Communities in Sediments across the Louisiana Continental Shelf

EPA Science Inventory

The Louisiana continental Shelf (LCS) is a dynamic system that receives discharges from two large rivers. It has a stratified water column that is mixed by winter storms, hypoxic bottom water from spring to fall, and a muddy seafloor with highly mixed surficial sediments. Spatia...

Snow Bank Detectives

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Olson, Eric A.; Rule, Audrey C.; Dehm, Janet

2005-01-01

In the city where the authors live, located on the shore of Lake Ontario, children have ample opportunity to interact with snow. Water vapor rising from the relatively warm lake surface produces tremendous "lake effect" snowfalls when frigid winter winds blow. Snow piles along roadways after each passing storm, creating impressive snow…

75 FR 8414 - California Disaster # CA-00150

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-02-24

... Administrative declaration of a disaster for the State of California dated 02/16/2010. Incident: Severe Winter Storms, Heavy Snow, Flooding, Debris Flows and Mudslides. Incident Period: 01/17/2010 and continuing... injury is 12039 0. The States which received an EIDL Declaration are California. (Catalog of Federal...

Crowdsourcing of weather observations at national meteorological and hydrological services in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krennert, Thomas; Pistotnik, Georg; Kaltenberger, Rainer; Csekits, Christian

2018-05-01

National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) increase their efforts to deliver impact-based weather forecasts and warnings. At the same time, a desired increase in cost-efficiency prompts these services to automatize their weather station networks and to reduce the number of human observers, which leads to a lack of ground truth information about weather phenomena and their impact. A possible alternative is to encourage the general public to submit weather observations, which may include crucial information especially in high-impact situations. We wish to provide an overview of the state and properties of existing collaborations between NMHSs and voluntary weather observers or storm spotters across Europe. For that purpose, we performed a survey among 30 European NMHSs, from which 22 NMHSs returned our questionnaire. This study summarizes the most important findings and evaluates the use of crowdsourced information. 86 % of the surveyed NMHSs utilize information provided by the general public, 50 % have established official collaborations with spotter groups, and 18 % have formalized them. The observations are most commonly used for a real-time improvement of severe weather warnings, their verification, and an establishment of a climatology of severe weather events. The importance of these volunteered weather and impact observations has strongly risen over the past decade. We expect that this trend will continue and that storm spotters will become an essential part in severe weather warning, like they have been for decades in the United States of America. A rising number of incoming reports implies that quality management will become an increasing issue, and we finally discuss an idea how to handle this challenge.

Quantifying thresholds for significant dune erosion along the Sefton Coast, Northwest England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esteves, Luciana S.; Brown, Jennifer M.; Williams, Jon J.; Lymbery, Graham

2012-03-01

Field and model hindcast data are used to establish a critical dune erosion threshold for the Sefton Coast (NW England). Events are classified as causing significant erosion if they result in: (a) a mean dune retreat along the entire study area of > 2 m; (b) a dune retreat of ≥ 5 m along a coastal segment ≥ 2 km in length; and (c) an eroded area ≥ 20,000 m2. For the period 1996 to 2008, individual storms were characterised using hindcast results from a POLCOMS-WAM model and measured data from the Liverpool Bay Coastal Observatory. Results show that combined extreme surge levels (> 1.5 m) and wave heights (> 4 m), or tidal water levels above 9.0 m Chart Datum (CD), do not always result in significant dune erosion. Evidence suggests that erosion is more likely to occur when wave heights are > 2.6 m, peak water level is > 10.2 m CD at Liverpool and when consecutive tidal cycles provide 10 h or more of water levels above 9.4 m CD. However, lower water levels and wave heights, and shorter events of sustained water levels, can cause significant erosion in the summer. While the return period for events giving rise to the most severe erosion in the winter is > 50 years, significant erosion in the summer can be caused by events with return periods < 1 year. It is suggested that this may be attributable to a known reduction in the mean dune toe elevation c. 30 cm. Although the study shows it might be possible to characterise objectively storm events based on oceanographic conditions, the resultant morphological change at the coast is demonstrated to depend on the time and duration of events, and on other variables which are not so easy to quantify. Further investigation is needed to understand the influence of alongshore and seasonal variability in beach/dune morphology in determining the response to the hydrodynamic and meteorological conditions causing significant erosion. Improved monitoring pre- and post-storm of changes in beach/dune morphology is required to develop reliable proxies that can be used to establish early warning systems to mitigate the impacts of erosion and flooding in the future.

Adapting Coastal State Indicators to end-users: the iCoast Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demarchi, Alessandro; Isotta Cristofori, Elena; Gracia, Vicente; Sairouní, Abdel; García-León, Manuel; Cámaro, Walther; Facello, Anna

2016-04-01

The extraordinary development of the built environment and of the population densities in the coastal areas are making coastal communities highly exposed. The sea level rise induced by climate change will worsen this coastal vulnerability scenario and a considerable amount of people are expected to be threatened by coastal flooding in the future. Due to the increasing number of catastrophic events, and the consequent increased number of damages and people affected, over the last decades coastal hazard management has become a fundamental activity in order to improve the resilience of coastal community. In this scenario, iCoast (integrated COastal Alert SysTem) project has been founded to develop a tool able to address coastal risks caused by extreme waves and high sea water levels in European coastal areas. In the framework of iCoast Project, a set of Coastal State Indicators (CSIs) has been developed in order to improve the forecasting and the assessment of coastal risks. CSIs are indeed parameters able to provide end-users with an essential information about coastal hazards and related impacts. Within the iCoast Project, following a comprehensive literature review about existing indicators concerning coastal risks, a list of CSIs have been chosen as parameters that can be derived from the meteorological and the hydrodynamic modules. They include both physical variables used as trigger for meteorological and flood warnings from the majority of the operational National/Regional warning systems and further essential parameters, so called 'storm integrated' coastal-storm indicators, able to describe the physical processes that drive coastal damages, such as erosion, accumulation, flooding, destructions. Nowadays, it is generally acknowledged that communities are not homogenous and hence their different vulnerable groups might need different warnings. Generally, even existing national EWS in developed countries are often ineffective to issue targeted warnings for specific user groups because they generate warnings whenever strong winds or high waves are expected. Once aggregated, weighted and compared with established thresholds, CSIs whereas allow to produce alert messages that can be tailored to different end-users needs. In the present study, the set of CSIs chosen in the framework of the iCoast Project, along with their performances tested for the case study of the Spanish NW Mediterranean Coast (i.e. Catalan Coast), is presented.

Monitoring Regional Forest Disturbances across the US with near Real Time MODIS NDVI Products Resident to the ForWarn Forest Threat Early Warning System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spruce, Joseph P.; Hargrove, William W.; Gasser, Gerald

2013-01-01

Forest threats across the US have become increasingly evident in recent years. Sometimes these have resulted in regionally evident disturbance progressions (e.g., from drought, bark beetle outbreaks, and wildfires) that can occur across multiyear durations and have resulted in extensive forest overstory mortality. In addition to stand replacement disturbances, other forests are subject to ephemeral, sometimes yearly defoliation from various insects and varying types and intensities of ephemeral damage from storms. Sometimes, after prolonged severe disturbance, signs of recovery in terms of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) can occur. The growing prominence and threat of forest disturbances in part have led to the formation and implementation of the 2003 Healthy Forest Restoration Act which mandated that national forest threat early warning system be developed and deployed. In response, the US Forest Service collaborated with NASA, DOE Oakridge National Laboratory, and the USGS Eros Data Center to build and roll-out the near real time ForWarn early warning system for monitoring regionally evident forest disturbances. Given the diversity of disturbance types, severities, and durations, ForWarn employs multiple historical baselines that are used with current NDVI to derive a suite of six forest change products that are refreshed every 8 days. ForWarn employs daily quarter kilometer MODIS NDVI data from the Aqua and Terra satellites, including MOD13 data for deriving historical baseline NDVIs and eMODIS 7 NDVI for compiling current NDVI. In doing so, the Time Series Product Tool and the Phenological Parameters Estimation Tool are used to temporally de-noise, fuse, and aggregate current and historical MODIS NDVIs into 24 day composites refreshed every 8 days with 46 dates of products per year. The 24 day compositing interval enables disturbances to be detected, while minimizing the frequency of residual atmospheric contamination. Forest change products are computed versus the previous 1, previous 3, and all previous years in the MODIS record for a given 24 day interval. Other "weekly" forest change products include one computed using an adaptive length compositing method for quicker detection of disturbances, two others that adjust for seasonal fluctuations in normal vegetation phenology (e.g., early versus late springs). This overall approach enables forest disturbance dynamics from a variety of regionally evident biotic and abiotic forest disturbances to be viewed and assessed through the calendar year. The change products are also being utilized for forest change trend analysis and for developing regional forest overstory mortality products. ForWarn's forest change products are used to alert forest health specialists about new forest disturbances. Such alerts are also typically based on available Landsat, aerial, and ground data as well as communications with forest health specialists and previous experience. ForWarn products have been used to detect and track many types of regional disturbances to multiple forest types, including defoliation from caterpillars and severe storms, as well as mortality from both biotic and abiotic agents (e.g., bark beetles, drought, fire, anthropogenic clearing). ForWarn offers products that could be combined with other geospatial data on forest biomass to assess forest disturbance carbon impacts within the conterminous US.

The May 1967 great storm and radio disruption event: Extreme space weather and extraordinary responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knipp, D. J.; Ramsay, A. C.; Beard, E. D.; Boright, A. L.; Cade, W. B.; Hewins, I. M.; McFadden, R. H.; Denig, W. F.; Kilcommons, L. M.; Shea, M. A.; Smart, D. F.

2016-09-01

Although listed as one of the most significant events of the last 80 years, the space weather storm of late May 1967 has been of mostly fading academic interest. The storm made its initial mark with a colossal solar radio burst causing radio interference at frequencies between 0.01 and 9.0 GHz and near-simultaneous disruptions of dayside radio communication by intense fluxes of ionizing solar X-rays. Aspects of military control and communication were immediately challenged. Within hours a solar energetic particle event disrupted high-frequency communication in the polar cap. Subsequently, record-setting geomagnetic and ionospheric storms compounded the disruptions. We explain how the May 1967 storm was nearly one with ultimate societal impact, were it not for the nascent efforts of the United States Air Force in expanding its terrestrial weather monitoring-analysis-warning-prediction efforts into the realm of space weather forecasting. An important and long-lasting outcome of this storm was more formal Department of Defense-support for current-day space weather forecasting. This story develops during the rapid rise of solar cycle 20 and the intense Cold War in the latter half of the twentieth century. We detail the events of late May 1967 in the intersecting categories of solar-terrestrial interactions and the political-military backdrop of the Cold War. This was one of the "Great Storms" of the twentieth century, despite the apparent lack of large geomagnetically induced currents. Radio disruptions like those discussed here warrant the attention of today's radio-reliant, cellular-phone and satellite-navigation enabled world.

Historic Storminess Changes in North Atlantic Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dawson, A. G.; Elliott, L.; Noone, S.; Hickey, K.; Foster, I.; Wadhams, P.; Mayewski, P.

2001-05-01

Reconstructed patterns of historic storminess (1870-1990 AD) for North Atlantic region as indicated by measurements from selected stations in Iceland, Faeroes, Scotland and Ireland show clear links with the climate "seesaw" winters first described by Van Loon and Rogers. The stormiest winters appear to have occurred during periods when measured Greenland air temperatures at Jacobshavn and reconstructed air temperatures from the Summit ice core site have been exceptionally low and when air temperature across northern Europe have been well above average. Maxima and minima of recorded winter storms for the various stations are also in agreement with the Sodium chronology from GISP2 that points to increased sea salt precipitation on Greenland ice at Summit during Greenland "below" periods of the climate seesaw.

Storm drains are sources of human fecal pollution during dry weather in three urban southern California watersheds.

PubMed

Sercu, Bram; Van De Werfhorst, Laurie C; Murray, Jill; Holden, Patricia A

2009-01-15

Coastal urbanized areas in Southern California experience frequent beach water quality warnings in summer due to high concentrations of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB). Remediation can be difficult, as sources are often unknown. During two summers, we sampled three urbanized watersheds in Santa Barbara, CA at sites with historically high FIB concentrations to determine if human fecal matter was influencing water quality. By quantification of a human-specific Bacteroides marker (HBM), human waste was evidenced throughout both transects, and concentrations were highest in the discharges of several flowing storm drains. The HBM concentrations in storm drain discharges varied by up to 5 orders of magnitude on the same day. While the exact points of entry into the storm drain systems were not definitively determined, further inspection of the drain infrastructure suggested exfiltrating sanitary sewers as possible sources. The HBM and FIB concentrations were not consistently correlated, although the exclusive occurrence of high HBM concentrations with high FIB concentrations warrants the use of FIB analyses for a first tier of sampling. The association of human fecal pollution with dry weather drainage could be a window into a larger problem for other urbanized coastal areas with Mediterranean-type climates.

Total Lightning and Radar Storm Characteristics Associated with Severe Storms in Central Florida

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodman, Steven J; Raghavan, R.; Buechler, Dennis; Hodanish, S.; Sharp, D.; Williams, E.; Boldi, B.; Matlin, A.; Weber, M.

1998-01-01

This paper examines the three dimensional characteristics of lightning flashes and severe storms observed in Central Florida during 1997-1998. The lightning time history of severe and tornadic storms were captured during the on-going ground validation campaign supporting the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) experiment on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). The ground validation campaign is a collaborative experiment that began in 1997 and involves scientists at the Global Hydrology and Climate Center, MIT/Lincoln Laboratories, and the NWS Forecast Office at Melbourne, FL. Lightning signatures that may provide potential early warning of severe storms are being evaluated by the forecasters at the NWS/MLB office. Severe storms with extreme flash rates sometimes exceeding 300 per minute and accompanying rapid increases in flash rate prior to the onset of the severe weather (hall, damaging winds, tornadoes) have been reported by Hodanish et al. and Williams et al. (1998-this conference). We examine the co-evolving changes in storm structure (mass, echo top, shear, latent heat release) and kinematics associated with these extreme and rapid flash rate changes over time. The flash frequency and density are compared with the three dimensional radar reflectivity structure of the storm to help interpret the possible mechanisms producing the extreme and rapidly increasing flash rates. For two tornadic storms examined thus far, we find the burst of lightning is associated with the development of upper level rotation in the storm. In one case, the lightning burst follows the formation of a bounded weak echo region (BWER). The flash rates diminish with time as the rotation develops to the ground in conjunction with the decent of the reflectivity core. Our initial findings suggest the dramatic increase of flash rates is associated with a sudden and dramatic increase in storm updraft intensity which we hypothesize is stretching vertical vorticity as well as enhancing the development of the mixed phase region of the storm. We discuss the importance of these factors in producing both the observed extreme flash rates and the severe weather that follows in these storms and others to be presented.

Riding the storm--landslide danger in the San Francisco Bay Area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Adams, Karen

2007-01-01

Movie Synopsis: --A catastrophic 1982 rainstorm triggered 18,000 landslides in the Bay Area, claiming 25 lives and causing $66 million in property damage. --The combination of steep slopes, weak rocks, and intense winter storms make Bay Area uplands an ideal setting for landslides. --Landslides include both swift, potentially deadly debris flows and slower, but destructive deepseated slides. --Learn what USGS scientists have discovered about landslide dynamics and which slopes are most susceptible to sliding. --Hear the devastating stories of Bay Area residents affected by landslides and learn to recognize the danger signs.

Global Lightning Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christian, Hugh J.

2004-01-01

Our knowledge of the global distribution of lightning has improved dramatically since the advent of spacebased lightning observations. Of major importance was the 1995 launch of the Optical Transient Detector (OTD), followed in 1997 by the launch of the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS). Together, these instruments have generated a continuous eight-year record of global lightning activity. These lightning observations have provided a new global perspective on total lightning activity. For the first time, total lightning activity (cloud-to-ground and intra-cloud) has been observed over large regions with high detection efficiency and accurate geographic location. This has produced new insights into lightning distributions, times of occurrence and variability. It has produced a revised global flash rate estimate (44 flashes per second) and has lead to a new realization of the significance of total lightning activity in severe weather. Accurate flash rate estimates are now available over large areas of the earth (+/- 72 deg. latitude). Ocean-land contrasts as a function of season are clearly reveled, as are orographic effects and seasonal and interannual variability. The space-based observations indicate that air mass thunderstorms, not large storm system dominate global activity. The ability of LIS and OTD to detect total lightning has lead to improved insight into the correlation between lightning and storm development. The relationship between updraft development and lightning activity is now well established and presents an opportunity for providing a new mechanism for remotely monitoring storm development. In this concept, lightning would serve as a surrogate for updraft velocity. It is anticipated that this capability could lead to significantly improved severe weather warning times and reduced false warning rates. This talk will summarize our space-based lightning measurements, will discuss how lightning observations can be used to monitor severe weather, and present a concept for continuous geostationary-based lightning observations.

Use of Remote Sensing Data to Enhance NWS Storm Damage Toolkit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jedlove, Gary J.; Molthan, Andrew L.; White, Kris; Burks, Jason; Stellman, Keith; Smith, Mathew

2012-01-01

In the wake of a natural disaster such as a tornado, the National Weather Service (NWS) is required to provide a very detailed and timely storm damage assessment to local, state and federal homeland security officials. The Post ]Storm Data Acquisition (PSDA) procedure involves the acquisition and assembly of highly perishable data necessary for accurate post ]event analysis and potential integration into a geographic information system (GIS) available to its end users and associated decision makers. Information gained from the process also enables the NWS to increase its knowledge of extreme events, learn how to better use existing equipment, improve NWS warning programs, and provide accurate storm intensity and damage information to the news media and academia. To help collect and manage all of this information, forecasters in NWS Southern Region are currently developing a Storm Damage Assessment Toolkit (SDAT), which incorporates GIS ]capable phones and laptops into the PSDA process by tagging damage photography, location, and storm damage details with GPS coordinates for aggregation within the GIS database. However, this tool alone does not fully integrate radar and ground based storm damage reports nor does it help to identify undetected storm damage regions. In many cases, information on storm damage location (beginning and ending points, swath width, etc.) from ground surveys is incomplete or difficult to obtain. Geographic factors (terrain and limited roads in rural areas), manpower limitations, and other logistical constraints often prevent the gathering of a comprehensive picture of tornado or hail damage, and may allow damage regions to go undetected. Molthan et al. (2011) have shown that high resolution satellite data can provide additional valuable information on storm damage tracks to augment this database. This paper presents initial development to integrate satellitederived damage track information into the SDAT for near real ]time use by forecasters and decision makers.

Use of Remote Sensing Data to Enhance NWS Storm Damage Toolkit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jedlovec, G.; Molthan, A.; White, K.; Burks, J.; Stellman, K.; Smith, M. R.

2012-12-01

In the wake of a natural disaster such as a tornado, the National Weather Service (NWS) is required to provide a very detailed and timely storm damage assessment to local, state and federal homeland security officials. The Post-Storm Data Acquisition (PSDA) procedure involves the acquisition and assembly of highly perishable data necessary for accurate post-event analysis and potential integration into a geographic information system (GIS) available to its end users and associated decision makers. Information gained from the process also enables the NWS to increase its knowledge of extreme events, learn how to better use existing equipment, improve NWS warning programs, and provide accurate storm intensity and damage information to the news media and academia. To help collect and manage all of this information, forecasters in NWS Southern Region are currently developing a Storm Damage Assessment Toolkit (SDAT), which incorporates GIS-capable phones and laptops into the PSDA process by tagging damage photography, location, and storm damage details with GPS coordinates for aggregation within the GIS database. However, this tool alone does not fully integrate radar and ground based storm damage reports nor does it help to identify undetected storm damage regions. In many cases, information on storm damage location (beginning and ending points, swath width, etc.) from ground surveys is incomplete or difficult to obtain. Geographic factors (terrain and limited roads in rural areas), manpower limitations, and other logistical constraints often prevent the gathering of a comprehensive picture of tornado or hail damage, and may allow damage regions to go undetected. Molthan et al. (2011) have shown that high resolution satellite data can provide additional valuable information on storm damage tracks to augment this database. This paper presents initial development to integrate satellite-derived damage track information into the SDAT for near real-time use by forecasters and decision makers.

Predictability of ENSO, the QBO, and European winter 2015/16

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scaife, A. A.; Ineson, S.; Ruth, C.; Dunstone, N. J.; Fereday, D.; Folland, C. K.; Good, E.; Gordon, M.; Hermanson, L.; Karpechko, A.; Knight, J. R.; MacLachlan, C.; Maidens, A. V.; Peterson, A.; Slingo, J.; Smith, D.; Walker, B.

2016-12-01

The northern winter of 2015/16 gave rise to the strongest El Niño event since 1997/8. Central and eastern Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies exceeded three degrees and closely resembled the strong El Niño in winter of 1982/3. A second feature of this winter was a strong westerly phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and very strong winds in the stratospheric polar night jet. At the surface, intense extratropical circulation anomalies occurred in both the North Pacific and North Atlantic that were consistent with known teleconnections to the observed phases of ENSO and the QBO. The North Atlantic Oscillation was very positive in the early winter period (Nov-Dec) and was more blocked in the late winter. Initialised climate predictions were able to capture these signals at seasonal lead times. This case study adds to the evidence that north Atlantic circulation exhibits predictability on seasonal timescales, and in this case we show that even aspects of the detailed pattern and sub-seasonal evolution were predicted, providing warning of increased risk of extreme events such as the intense rainfall which caused extreme flooding in the UK in December.

"Fiberoptic variable message signs" : Ladd Canyon - Drinking Fountain Grade Section , Old Oregon Trail Highway (Interstate 84) : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1995-02-01

The SYLVIA fiberoptic variable message signs (VMS) were installed on the Old Oregon Trail Highway (I-84) at milepost 263.4 near La Grande and at milepost 286.7 near North Powder. The purpose of the signs is to warn motorists of fog, winter blizzard c...

Numerical simulation of "an American haboob"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vukovic, A.; Vujadinovic, M.; Pejanovic, G.; Andric, J.; Kumjian, M. R.; Djurdjevic, V.; Dacic, M.; Prasad, A. K.; El-Askary, H. M.; Paris, B. C.; Petkovic, S.; Nickovic, S.; Sprigg, W. A.

2014-04-01

A dust storm of fearful proportions hit Phoenix in the early evening hours of 5 July 2011. This storm, an American haboob, was predicted hours in advance because numerical, land-atmosphere modeling, computing power and remote sensing of dust events have improved greatly over the past decade. High-resolution numerical models are required for accurate simulation of the small scales of the haboob process, with high velocity surface winds produced by strong convection and severe downbursts. Dust productive areas in this region consist mainly of agricultural fields, with soil surfaces disturbed by plowing and tracks of land in the high Sonoran Desert laid barren by ongoing draught. Model simulation of the 5 July 2011 dust storm uses the coupled atmospheric-dust model NMME-DREAM (Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model on E grid, Janjic et al., 2001; Dust REgional Atmospheric Model, Nickovic et al., 2001; Pérez et al., 2006) with 4 km horizontal resolution. A mask of the potentially dust productive regions is obtained from the land cover and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The scope of this paper is validation of the dust model performance, and not use of the model as a tool to investigate mechanisms related to the storm. Results demonstrate the potential technical capacity and availability of the relevant data to build an operational system for dust storm forecasting as a part of a warning system. Model results are compared with radar and other satellite-based images and surface meteorological and PM10 observations. The atmospheric model successfully hindcasted the position of the front in space and time, with about 1 h late arrival in Phoenix. The dust model predicted the rapid uptake of dust and high values of dust concentration in the ensuing storm. South of Phoenix, over the closest source regions (~25 km), the model PM10 surface dust concentration reached ~2500 μg m-3, but underestimated the values measured by the PM10 stations within the city. Model results are also validated by the MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD), employing deep blue (DB) algorithms for aerosol loadings. Model validation included Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO), equipped with the lidar instrument, to disclose the vertical structure of dust aerosols as well as aerosol subtypes. Promising results encourage further research and application of high-resolution modeling and satellite-based remote sensing to warn of approaching severe dust events and reduce risks for safety and health.

Problems and Prospects of SWAT Model Application on an Arid/Semi-Arid Watershed in Arizona

EPA Science Inventory

In arid/semi-arid regions, precipitation mainly occurs during two periods: long-duration, low-intensity rainfall in winter; and short-duration, high-intensity rainfall in summer. Watersheds in arid/semi-arid regions often release water almost immediately after a storm due to spa...

Rising synchrony controls western North American ecosystems

Treesearch

Bryan A. Black; Peter van der Sleen; Emanuele Di Lorenzo; Daniel Griffin; William J. Sydeman; Jason B. Dunham; Ryan R. Rykaczewski; Marisol García-Reyes; Mohammad Safeeq; Ivan Arismendi; Steven J. Bograd

2018-01-01

Along the western margin of North America, the winter expression of the North Pacific High (NPH) strongly influences interannual variability in coastal upwelling, storm track position, precipitation, and river discharge. Coherence among these factors induces covariance among physical and biological processes across adjacent marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we...

What Happens during a Thunderstorm?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mogil, H. Michael

2004-01-01

A thunderstorm is a localized storm accompanied by lightning and thunder. It may also have gusty winds and often brings heavy rain. Some thunderstorms can also bring tornadoes and/or hail. During winter, localized heavy snow showers may also have thunder and lightning. And, in the western United States in summer, thunderstorms may be…

76 FR 7622 - California Disaster #CA-00162

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-02-10

... Administrative declaration of a disaster for the State of California dated 02/02/2011. Incident: Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Debris and Mud Flows. Incident Period: 12/17/2010 through 01/04/2011. Effective... is 12460 0. The States which received an EIDL Declaration are California, Arizona, Nevada. (Catalog...

76 FR 11553 - New York Disaster #NY-00102

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-03-02

.../18/2011. Incident: Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm. Incident Period: 12/26/2010 through 12/27/2010. Effective Date: 02/18/2011. Physical Loan Application Deadline Date: 04/19/2011. Economic Injury (EIDL) Loan Application Deadline Date: 11/18/2011. ADDRESSES: Submit completed loan applications to: U.S. Small Business...

TEMPORAL VARIABILITY IN PHYSICAL SPECIATION OF METALS DURING A WINTER RAIN-ON-SNOW EVENT

EPA Science Inventory

Particulate matter in urban rivers transports a significant fraction of pollutants, changes rapidly during storm events and is difficult to characterize. In this study, the physical speciation of trace metals and organic carbon in an urban river and upstream headwaters site in To...

Storm-tracks interannual variability and large-scale climate modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Trigo, Isabel F.; Trigo, Ricardo M.

2013-04-01

In this study we focus on the interannual variability and observed changes in northern hemisphere mid-latitude storm-tracks and relate them to large scale atmospheric circulation variability modes. Extratropical storminess, cyclones dominant paths, frequency and intensity have long been the object of climatological studies. The analysis of storm characteristics and historical trends presented here is based on the cyclone detecting and tracking algorithm first developed for the Mediterranean region (Trigo et al. 1999) and recently extended to a larger Euro-Atlantic region (Trigo 2006). The objective methodology, which identifies and follows individual lows as minima in SLP fields, fulfilling a set of conditions regarding the central pressure and the pressure gradient, is applied to the northern hemisphere 6-hourly geopotential data at 1000 hPa from the 20th Century Reanalyses (20CRv2) project and from reanalyses datasets provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF): ERA-40 and ERA Interim reanalyses. First, we assess the interannual variability and cyclone frequency trends for each of the datasets, for the 20th century and for the period between 1958 and 2002 using the highest spatial resolution available (1.125° x 1.125°) from the ERA-40 data. Results show that winter variability of storm paths, cyclone frequency and travel times is in agreement with the reported variability in a number of large-scale climate patterns (including the North Atlantic Oscillation, the East Atlantic Pattern and the Scandinavian Pattern). In addition, three storm-track databases are built spanning the common available extended winter seasons from October 1979 to March 2002. Although relatively short, this common period allows a comparison of systems represented in reanalyses datasets with distinct horizontal resolutions. This exercise is mostly focused on the key areas of cyclogenesis and cyclolysis and main cyclone characteristics over the northern hemisphere. Trigo IF., TD Davies, GR Bigg (1999) Objective climatology of cyclones in the Mediterranean region. J. Climate 12: 1685-1696. Trigo IF (2006) Climatology and interannual variability of storm-tracks in the Euro-Atlantic sector: a comparison between ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. Clim. Dyn. 26: 127-143.

[Dust storms trend in the Capital Circle of China over the past 50 years and its correlation with temperature, precipitation and wind].

PubMed

Chen, Yu-fu; Tang, Hai-ping

2005-01-01

The trends of number of dust storm days of the selected 11 meteorological stations from their established year to 2000 as well as their correlations with temperature, precipitation and wind are revealed. The number of dust storm days of the Capital Circle of China is distinctly variable in space and time. The numbers of dust storm days of the western area are far more than those of the eastern area. The interannual variability of number of dust storm days is remarkable. The number of dust storm days of the following 7 stations, Erlianhaote, Abaga, Xilinhaote, Fengning, Zhangjiakou, Huailai and Beijing, declined along the past decades, but those of the other four stations had no significant upward or downward trends. There is a marked seasonality of the number of dust storm days, and the maximum was in April. The correlation between number of dust storm days and number of days of mean wind velocity > 5 m/s, which is critical wind velocity to entrain sand into the air, was strongest among the three climatic factor. There were significant positive correlations between the number of dust storm days and number of days of mean wind velocity > 5 m/s in 6 stations. The second strongest climatic factor correlated with the number of dust storm days is temperature. There are significant negative correlations between the number of dust storm days and mean annual temperature, mean winter temperature, mean spring temperature in 3 or 4 stations. The correlation between the number of dust storm days and precipitation is weakest. Only one station, Zhurihe, showes significant negative correlation between the number of dust storm days and spring rainfall. There are 4 stations whose number of dust storm days don't significantly correlate with the climate. In the end, the spatial-temporal variability of dust storms and its relation with climate in the Capital Circle of China were discussed thoroughly.

Operational Impact of Data Collected from the Global Hawk Unmanned Aircraft During SHOUT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wick, G. A.; Dunion, J. P.; Sippel, J.; Cucurull, L.; Aksoy, A.; Kren, A.; Christophersen, H.; Black, P.

2017-12-01

The primary scientific goal of the Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology (SHOUT) Project was to determine the potential utility of observations from high-altitude, long-endurance unmanned aircraft systems such as the Global Hawk (GH) aircraft to improve operational forecasts of high-impact weather events or mitigate potential degradation of forecasts in the event of a future gap in satellite coverage. Hurricanes and tropical cyclones are among the most potentially destructive high-impact weather events and pose a major forecasting challenge to NOAA. Major winter storms over the Pacific Ocean, including atmospheric river events, which make landfall and bring strong winds and extreme precipitation to the West Coast and Alaska are also important to forecast accurately because of their societal impact in those parts of the country. In response, the SHOUT project supported three field campaigns with the GH aircraft and dedicated data impact studies exploring the potential for the real-time data from the aircraft to improve the forecasting of both tropical cyclones and landfalling Pacific storms. Dropsonde observations from the GH aircraft were assimilated into the operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) models. The results from several diverse but complementary studies consistently demonstrated significant positive forecast benefits spanning the regional and global models. Forecast skill improvements within HWRF reached up to about 9% for track and 14% for intensity. Within GFS, track skill improvements for multi-storm averages exceeded 10% and improvements for individual storms reached over 20% depending on forecast lead time. Forecasted precipitation was also improved. Impacts for Pacific winter storms were smaller but still positive. The results are highly encouraging and support the potential for operational utilization of data from a platform like the GH. This presentation summarizes the observations collected and highlights the multiple impact studies completed.

Ambient particulate matter and carbon monoxide at an urban site of India: Influence of anthropogenic emissions and dust storms.

PubMed

Yadav, Ravi; Sahu, L K; Beig, G; Tripathi, Nidhi; Jaaffrey, S N A

2017-06-01

Continuous measurements of PM 2.5 , PM 10 and CO were conducted at an urban site of Udaipur in India from April 2011 to March 2012. The annual mean concentrations of PM 2.5, PM 10 and CO were 42 ± 17 μg m -3 , 114 ± 31 μg m -3 and 343 ± 136 ppbv, respectively. Concentrations of both particulate and CO showed high values during winter/pre-monsoon (dry) period and lowest in the monsoon season (wet). Local anthropogenic emission and long-range transport from open biomass burning sources along with favourable synoptic meteorology led to elevated levels of pollutants in the dry season. However, higher values of PM 10 /PM 2.5 ratio during pre-monsoon season were caused by the episodes of dust storm. In the monsoon season, flow of cleaner air, rainfall and negligible emissions from biomass burning resulted in the lowest levels of pollutants. The concentrations of PM 2.5 , PM 10 and CO showed highest values during morning and evening rush hours, while lowest in the afternoon hours. In winter season, reductions of PM 2.5, CO and PM 10 during weekends were highest of 15%, 13% and 9%, respectively. In each season, the highest PM 2.5 /PM 10 ratio coincided with the highest concentrations of pollutants (CO and NO X ) indicating predominant emissions from anthropogenic sources. Exceptionally high concentrations of PM 10 during the episode of dust storm were due to transport from the Arabian Peninsula and Thar Desert. Up to ∼32% enhancements of PM 10 were observed during strong dust storms. Relatively low levels of O 3 and NO x during the storm periods indicate the role of heterogeneous removal. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Storm surge evolution and its relationship to climate oscillations at Duck, NC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munroe, Robert; Curtis, Scott

2017-07-01

Coastal communities experience increased vulnerability during storm surge events through the risk of damage to coastal infrastructure, erosion/deposition, and the endangerment of human life. Policy and planning measures attempt to avoid or mitigate storm surge consequences through building codes and setbacks, beach stabilization, insurance rates, and coastal zoning. The coastal emergency management community and public react and respond on shorter time scales, through temporary protection, emergency stockpiling, and evacuation. This study utilizes time series analysis, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test, Pearson's correlation, and the generalized extreme value (GEV) theorem to make the connection between climate oscillation indices and storm surge characteristics intra-seasonally to inter-annually. Results indicate that an El Niño (+ENSO), negative phase of the NAO, and positive phase of the PNA pattern all support longer duration and hence more powerful surge events, especially in winter. Increased surge duration increases the likelihood of extensive erosion, inland inundation, among other undesirable effects of the surge hazard.

Impact of prolonged storm activity on the Ecological Status of intertidal benthic habitats within oyster (Crassostrea gigas) trestle cultivation sites.

PubMed

O'Carroll, Jack P J; Quinn, Christina; Forde, James; Patterson, Adrian; O'Beirn, Francis X; Kennedy, Robert

2016-09-15

The Ecological Status (ES; sensu the Water Framework Directive) of intertidal benthic communities within six oyster trestle cultivation sites was found to be negatively impacted along the access routes to trestles in a 2013 study. All cultivation sites occur within Natura 2000 sites. The current study revisited four of the 2013 cultivation sites in February 2014 one month after the storm activity of winter 2013/14 to test if the compaction effect along access routes persisted after the storms. Three levels of the fixed factor treatment were sampled; immediately below the trestles, along the access route and 300m away from any anthropogenic activity. The compaction effect at the Access treatment persisted in spite of the major storm activity. The current study showed the IQI to be effective for assessing the impacts of aquaculture and highlights the IQI as a tool for monitoring Conservation Status of intertidal communities under the Habitats Directive. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on the evolution of central California's shoreline

USGS Publications Warehouse

Storlazzi, Curt D.; Griggs, Gary B.

2000-01-01

Significant sea-cliff erosion and storm damage occurred along the central coast of California during the 1982–1983 and 1997–1998 El Niño winters. This generated interest among scientists and land-use planners in how historic El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) winters have affected the coastal climate of central California. A relative ENSO intensity index based on oceanographic and meteorologic data defines the timing and magnitude of ENSO events over the past century. The index suggests that five higher intensity (relative values 4–6) and 17 lower intensity (relative values 1–3) ENSO events took place between 1910 and 1995. The ENSO intensity index correlates with fluctuations in the time series of cyclone activity, precipitation, detrended sea level, wave height, sea-surface temperature, and sea-level barometric pressure. Wave height, sea level, and precipitation, which are the primary external forcing parameters in sea-cliff erosion, increase nonlinearly with increasing relative ENSO event intensity. The number of storms that caused coastal erosion or storm damage and the historic occurrence of large-scale sea-cliff erosion along the central coast also increase nonlinearly with increasing relative event intensity. These correlations and the frequency distribution of relative ENSO event intensities indicate that moderate- to high-intensity ENSO events cause the most sea-cliff erosion and shoreline recession over the course of a century.

Anticipating and Communicating Plausible Environmental and Health Concerns Associated with Future Disasters: The ShakeOut and ARkStorm Scenarios as Examples

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plumlee, G. S.; Morman, S. A.; Alpers, C. N.; Hoefen, T. M.; Meeker, G. P.

2010-12-01

Disasters commonly pose immediate threats to human safety, but can also produce hazardous materials (HM) that pose short- and long-term environmental-health threats. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has helped assess potential environmental health characteristics of HM produced by various natural and anthropogenic disasters, such as the 2001 World Trade Center collapse, 2005 hurricanes Katrina and Rita, 2007-2009 southern California wildfires, various volcanic eruptions, and others. Building upon experience gained from these responses, we are now developing methods to anticipate plausible environmental and health implications of the 2008 Great Southern California ShakeOut scenario (which modeled the impacts of a 7.8 magnitude earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault, http://urbanearth.gps.caltech.edu/scenario08/), and the recent ARkStorm scenario (modeling the impacts of a major, weeks-long winter storm hitting nearly all of California, http://urbanearth.gps.caltech.edu/winter-storm/). Environmental-health impacts of various past earthquakes and extreme storms are first used to identify plausible impacts that could be associated with the disaster scenarios. Substantial insights can then be gleaned using a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) approach to link ShakeOut and ARkStorm effects maps with data extracted from diverse database sources containing geologic, hazards, and environmental information. This type of analysis helps constrain where potential geogenic (natural) and anthropogenic sources of HM (and their likely types of contaminants or pathogens) fall within areas of predicted ShakeOut-related shaking, firestorms, and landslides, and predicted ARkStorm-related precipitation, flooding, and winds. Because of uncertainties in the event models and many uncertainties in the databases used (e.g., incorrect location information, lack of detailed information on specific facilities, etc.) this approach should only be considered as the first of multiple steps toward a more quantitative, predictive approach to understanding the potential sources, types, environmental behavior, and health implications of HM predicted to result from these disaster scenarios. Although only a first step, this qualitative approach will help enhance planning for, mitigation of, and resilience to environmental-health consequences of future disasters. This qualitative approach also requires careful communication to stakeholders that does not sensationalize or overstate potential problems, but rather conveys plausible impacts and next steps to improve understanding of potential risks and their mitigation.

Preliminary benefits study for a public service communications satellite system: Task order 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1978-01-01

The economic and social benefits to accrue from an operational public service communications satellite system are estimated for the following applications: teleradiology, emergency medical services, teleconferencing for both civilian and defense agencies, data transfer, remote cardiac monitoring, teleconsultation, continuing education for professionals, and severe storm warning. The potential impact of improved communication on the cost and quality of services are assessed for various agencies, professions, and industries.

Assessing storm surge hazard and impact of sea level rise in the Lesser Antilles case study of Martinique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krien, Yann; Dudon, Bernard; Roger, Jean; Arnaud, Gael; Zahibo, Narcisse

2017-09-01

In the Lesser Antilles, coastal inundations from hurricane-induced storm surges pose a great threat to lives, properties and ecosystems. Assessing current and future storm surge hazards with sufficient spatial resolution is of primary interest to help coastal planners and decision makers develop mitigation and adaptation measures. Here, we use wave-current numerical models and statistical methods to investigate worst case scenarios and 100-year surge levels for the case study of Martinique under present climate or considering a potential sea level rise. Results confirm that the wave setup plays a major role in the Lesser Antilles, where the narrow island shelf impedes the piling-up of large amounts of wind-driven water on the shoreline during extreme events. The radiation stress gradients thus contribute significantly to the total surge - up to 100 % in some cases. The nonlinear interactions of sea level rise (SLR) with bathymetry and topography are generally found to be relatively small in Martinique but can reach several tens of centimeters in low-lying areas where the inundation extent is strongly enhanced compared to present conditions. These findings further emphasize the importance of waves for developing operational storm surge warning systems in the Lesser Antilles and encourage caution when using static methods to assess the impact of sea level rise on storm surge hazard.

Distribution of dust during two dust storms in Iceland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ösp Magnúsdóttir, Agnes; Dagsson-Waldhauserova, Pavla; Arnalds, Ólafur; Ólafsson, Haraldur

2017-04-01

Particulate matter mass concentrations and size fractions of PM1, PM2.5, PM4, PM10, and PM15 measured in transversal horizontal profile of two dust storms in southwestern Iceland are presented. Images from a camera network were used to estimate the visibility and spatial extent of measured dust events. Numerical simulations were used to calculate the total dust flux from the sources as 180,000 and 280,000 tons for each storm. The mean PM15 concentrations inside of the dust plumes varied from 10 to 1600 ?g?m?3 (PM10 = 7 to 583 ?g?m?3). The mean PM1 concentrations were 97-241 ?g?m?3 with a maximum of 261 ?g?m?3 for the first storm. The PM1/PM2.5 ratios of >0.9 and PM1/PM10 ratios of 0.34-0.63 show that suspension of volcanic materials in Iceland causes air pollution with extremely high PM1 concentrations, similar to polluted urban areas in Europe or Asia. Icelandic volcanic dust consists of a higher proportion of submicron particles compared to crustal dust. Both dust storms occurred in relatively densely inhabited areas of Iceland. First results on size partitioning of Icelandic dust presented here should challenge health authorities to enhance research in relation to dust and shows the need for public dust warning systems.

A Geospatial Database that Supports Derivation of Climatological Features of Severe Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, M.; Ansari, S.; Del Greco, S.

2007-12-01

The Severe Weather Data Inventory (SWDI) at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) provides user access to archives of several datasets critical to the detection and evaluation of severe weather. These datasets include archives of: · NEXRAD Level-III point features describing general storm structure, hail, mesocyclone and tornado signatures · National Weather Service Storm Events Database · National Weather Service Local Storm Reports collected from storm spotters · National Weather Service Warnings · Lightning strikes from Vaisala's National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) SWDI archives all of these datasets in a spatial database that allows for convenient searching and subsetting. These data are accessible via the NCDC web site, Web Feature Services (WFS) or automated web services. The results of interactive web page queries may be saved in a variety of formats, including plain text, XML, Google Earth's KMZ, standards-based NetCDF and Shapefile. NCDC's Storm Risk Assessment Project (SRAP) uses data from the SWDI database to derive gridded climatology products that show the spatial distributions of the frequency of various events. SRAP also can relate SWDI events to other spatial data such as roads, population, watersheds, and other geographic, sociological, or economic data to derive products that are useful in municipal planning, emergency management, the insurance industry, and other areas where there is a need to quantify and qualify how severe weather patterns affect people and property.

Using radar-derived parameters to forecast lightning cessation for nonisolated storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davey, Matthew J.; Fuelberg, Henry E.

2017-03-01

Lightning impacts operations at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and other outdoor venues leading to injuries, inconvenience, and detrimental economic impacts. This research focuses on cases of "nonisolated" lightning which we define as one cell whose flashes have ceased although it is still embedded in weak composite reflectivity (Z ≥ 15 dBZ) with another cell that is still producing flashes. The objective is to determine if any radar-derived parameters provide useful information about the occurrence of lightning cessation in remnant storms. The data set consists of 50 warm season (May-September) nonisolated storms near KSC during 2013. The research utilizes the National Lightning Detection Network, the second generation Lightning Detection and Ranging network, and polarized radar data. These data are merged and analyzed using the Warning Decision Support System-Integrated Information at 1 min intervals. Our approach only considers 62 parameters, most of which are related to the noninductive charging mechanism. They included the presence of graupel at various thermal altitudes, maximum reflectivity of the decaying storm at thermal altitudes, maximum connecting composite reflectivity between the decaying cell and active cell, minutes since the previous flash, and several others. Results showed that none of the parameters reliably indicated lightning cessation for even our restrictive definition of nonisolated storms. Additional research is needed before cessation can be determined operationally with the high degree of accuracy required for safety.

GOES-S Mission Science Briefing

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-02-27

In the Kennedy Space Center's Press Site auditorium, Jim Roberts, a scientist with the Earth System Research Laboratory's Office of Atmospheric Research for NOAA, left, and Kristin Calhoun, a research scientist with NOAA's National Severe Storms Laboratory, speak to members of the media at a mission briefing on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's, or NOAA's, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, or GOES-S. The spacecraft is the second satellite in a series of next-generation NOAA weather satellites. It will launch to a geostationary position over the U.S. to provide images of storms and help predict weather forecasts, severe weather outlooks, watches, warnings, lightning conditions and longer-term forecasting. GOES-S is slated to lift off at 5:02 p.m. EST on March 1, 2018 aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket.

Extreme Storms. Chapter 9

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kossin, J. P.; Hall, T.; Knutson, T.; Kunkel, K. E.; Trapp, R. J.; Waliser, D. E.; Wehner, M. F.

2017-01-01

Key Findings: 1. Human activities have contributed substantially to observed ocean-atmosphere variability in the Atlantic Ocean (medium confidence), and these changes have contributed to the observed upward trend in North Atlantic hurricane activity since the 1970s (medium confidence). 2. Both theory and numerical modeling simulations generally indicate an increase in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity in a warmer world, and the models generally show an increase in the number of very intense TCs. For Atlantic and eastern North Pacific hurricanes and western North Pacific typhoons, increases are projected in precipitation rates (high confidence) and intensity (medium confidence). The frequency of the most intense of these storms is projected to increase in the Atlantic and western North Pacific (low confidence) and in the eastern North Pacific (medium confidence). 3. Tornado activity in the United States has become more variable, particularly over the 2000s, with a decrease in the number of days per year with tornadoes and an increase in the number of tornadoes on these days (medium confidence). Confidence in past trends for hail and severe thunderstorm winds, however, is low. Climate models consistently project environmental changes that would putatively support an increase in the frequency and intensity of severe thunderstorms (a category that combines tornadoes, hail, and winds), especially over regions that are currently prone to these hazards, but confidence in the details of this projected increase is low. 4. There has been a trend toward earlier snowmelt and a decrease in snowstorm frequency on the southern margins of climatologically snowy areas (medium confidence). Winter storm tracks have shifted northward since 1950 over the Northern Hemisphere (medium confidence). Projections of winter storm frequency and intensity over the United States vary from increasing to decreasing depending on region, but model agreement is poor and confidence is low. Potential linkages between the frequency and intensity of severe winter storms in the United States and accelerated warming in the Arctic have been postulated, but they are complex, and, to some extent, contested, and confidence in the connection is currently low. 5. The frequency and severity of landfalling "atmospheric rivers" on the U.S. West Coast (narrow streams of moisture that account for 30 percent to 40 percent of the typical snowpack and annual precipitation in the region and are associated with severe flooding events) will increase as a result of increasing evaporation and resulting higher atmospheric water vapor that occurs with increasing temperature. (Medium confidence)

Assessing storm events for energy meteorology: using media and scientific reports to track a North Sea autumn storm.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kettle, Anthony

2016-04-01

Important issues for energy meteorology are to assess meteorological conditions for normal operating conditions and extreme events for the ultimate limit state of engineering structures. For the offshore environment in northwest Europe, energy meteorology encompasses weather conditions relevant for petroleum production infrastructure and also the new field of offshore wind energy production. Autumn and winter storms are an important issue for offshore operations in the North Sea. The weather in this region is considered as challenging for extreme meteorological events as the Gulf of Mexico with its attendant hurricane risk. The rise of the Internet and proliferation of digital recording devices has placed a much greater amount of information in the public domain than was available to national meteorological agencies even 20 years ago. This contribution looks at reports of meteorology and infrastructure damage from a storm in the autumn of 2006 to trace the spatial and temporal record of meteorological events. Media reports give key information to assess the events of the storm. The storm passed over northern Europe between Oct.31-Nov. 2, 2006, and press reports from the time indicate that its most important feature was a high surge that inundated coastal areas. Sections of the Dutch and German North Sea coast were affected, and there was record flooding in Denmark and East Germany in the southern Baltic Sea. Extreme wind gusts were also reported that were strong enough to damage roofs and trees, and there was even tornado recorded near the Dutch-German border. Offshore, there were a series of damage reports from ship and platforms that were linked with sea state, and reports of rogue waves were explicitly mentioned. Many regional government authorities published summaries of geophysical information related to the storm, and these form part of a regular series of online winter storm reports that started as a public service about 15 years ago. Depending on the issuing authority, these reports include wind speed and atmospheric pressure for a number of stations. However, there is also important ancillary information that includes satellite images, weather radar pictures, sea state recordings, tide gauge records, and coastal surveys. When collated together, the literature survey gives good view of events related to the autumn storm. The key information from media reports is backed up by quantitative numbers from the scientific literature. For energy meteorology in the offshore environment, there is an outline of extreme wave events that may be important to help define the ultimate limit state of engineering structures and the return periods of extreme waves. While this contribution focusses on events from an old storm in the autumn of 2006, more severe regional storms have occurred since then, and the scientific literature indicates that these may be linked with climate warming. Literature surveys may help to fully define extreme meteorological conditions offshore and benefit different branches of the energy industry in Europe.

Shifting Pacific storm tracks as stressors to ecosystems of western North America.

PubMed

Dannenberg, Matthew P; Wise, Erika K

2017-11-01

Much of the precipitation delivered to western North America arrives during the cool season via midlatitude Pacific storm tracks, which may experience future shifts in response to climate change. Here, we assess the sensitivity of the hydroclimate and ecosystems of western North America to the latitudinal position of cool-season Pacific storm tracks. We calculated correlations between storm track variability and three hydroclimatic variables: gridded cool-season standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index, April snow water equivalent, and water year streamflow from a network of USGS stream gauges. To assess how historical storm track variability affected ecosystem processes, we derived forest growth estimates from a large network of tree-ring widths and land surface phenology and wildfire estimates from remote sensing. From 1980 to 2014, cool-season storm tracks entered western North America between approximately 41°N and 53°N. Cool-season moisture supply and snowpack responded strongly to storm track position, with positive correlations to storm track latitude in eastern Alaska and northwestern Canada but negative correlations in the northwestern U.S. Ecosystems of the western United States were greener and more productive following winters with south-shifted storm tracks, while Canadian ecosystems were greener in years when the cool-season storm track was shifted to the north. On average, larger areas of the northwestern United States were burned by moderate to high severity wildfires when storm tracks were displaced north, and the average burn area per fire also tended to be higher in years with north-shifted storm tracks. These results suggest that projected shifts of Pacific storm tracks over the 21st century would likely alter hydroclimatic and ecological regimes in western North America, particularly in the northwestern United States, where moisture supply and ecosystem processes are highly sensitive to the position of cool-season storm tracks. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Pesticides in storm runoff from agricultural and urban areas in the Tuolumne River basin in the vicinity of Modesto, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kratzer, Charles R.

1998-01-01

The occurrence, concentrations, and loads of dissolved pesticides in storm runoff were compared for two contrasting land uses in the Tuolumne River Basin, California, during two different winter storms: agricultural areas (February 1994) and the Modesto urban area (February 1995). Both storms followed the main application period of pesticides on dormant almond orchards. Eight samples of runoff from agricultural areas were collected from a Tuolumne River site, and 10 samples of runoff from urban areas were collected from five storm drains. All samples were analyzed for 46 pesticides. Six pesticides were detected in runoff from agricultural areas, and 15 pesticides were detected in runoff from urban areas. Chlorpyrifos, diazinon, dacthal (DCPA), metolachlor, and simazine were detected in almost every sample. Median concentrations were higher in the runoff from urban areas for all pesticides except napropamide and simazine. The greater occurrence and concentrations in storm drains is partly attributed to dilution of agricultural runoff by nonstorm base-flow in the Tuolumne River and by storm runoff from nonagricultural and nonurban land. In most cases, the occurrence and relative concentrations of pesticides found in storm runoff from agricultural and urban areas were related to reported pesticide application. Pesticide concentrations in runoff from agricultural areas were more variable during the storm hydrograph than were concentrations in runoff from urban areas. All peak pesticide concentrations in runoff from agricultural areas occurred during the rising limb of the storm hydrograph, whereas peak concentrations in the storm drains occurred at varying times during the storm hydrograph. Transport of pesticides from agricultural areas during the February 1994 storm exceeded transport from urban areas during the February 1995 storm for chlorpyrifos, diazinon, metolachlor, napropamide, and simazine. Transport of DCPA was about the same from agricultural and urban sources, and the main source of transport for the other pesticides could not be determined because of concentrations less than the method detection limit.

Study of the mid-latitude ionospheric response to geomagnetic storms in the European region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berényi, Kitti Alexandra; Barta, Veronika; Kis, Arpad

2016-07-01

Geomagnetic storms affect the ionospheric regions of the terrestrial upper atmosphere through different physical and atmospheric processes. The phenomena that can be regarded as a result of these processes, generally is named as "ionospheric storm". The processes depend on altitude, segment of the day, the geomagnetic latitude and longitude, strength of solar activity and the type of the geomagnetic storm. We examine the data of ground-based radio wave ionosphere sounding measurements of European ionospheric stations (mainly the data of Nagycenk Geophysical Observatory) in order to determine how and to what extent a geomagnetic disturbance of a certain strength affects the mid-latitude ionospheric regions in winter and in summer. For our analysis we used disturbed time periods between November 2012 and June 2015. Our results show significant changing of the ionospheric F2 layer parameters on strongly disturbed days compared to quiet ones. We show that the critical frequencies (foF2) increase compared to their quiet day value when the ionospheric storm was positive. On the other hand, the critical frequencies become lower, when the storm was negative. In our analysis we determined the magnitude of these changes on the chosen days. For a more complete analysis we compare also the evolution of the F2 layer parameters of the European ionosonde stations on a North-South geographic longitude during a full storm duration. The results present the evolution of an ionospheric storm over a geographic meridian. Furthermore, we compared the two type of geomagnetic storms, namely the CME caused geomagnetic storm - the so-called Sudden impulse (Si) storms- and the HSS (High Speed Solar Wind Streams) caused geomagnetic storms -the so-called Gradual storms (Gs)- impact on the ionospheric F2-layer (foF2 parameter). The results show a significant difference between the effect of Si and of the Gs storms on the ionospheric F2-layer.

Developments in real-time monitoring for geologic hazard warnings (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leith, W. S.; Mandeville, C. W.; Earle, P. S.

2013-12-01

Real-time data from global, national and local sensor networks enable prompt alerts and warnings of earthquakes, tsunami, volcanic eruptions, geomagnetic storms , broad-scale crustal deformation and landslides. State-of-the-art seismic systems can locate and evaluate earthquake sources in seconds, enabling 'earthquake early warnings' to be broadcast ahead of the damaging surface waves so that protective actions can be taken. Strong motion monitoring systems in buildings now support near-real-time structural damage detection systems, and in quiet times can be used for state-of-health monitoring. High-rate GPS data are being integrated with seismic strong motion data, allowing accurate determination of earthquake displacements in near-real time. GPS data, combined with rainfall, groundwater and geophone data, are now used for near-real-time landslide monitoring and warnings. Real-time sea-floor water pressure data are key for assessing tsunami generation by large earthquakes. For monitoring remote volcanoes that lack local ground-based instrumentation, the USGS uses new technologies such as infrasound arrays and the worldwide lightning detection array to detect eruptions in progress. A new real-time UV-camera system for measuring the two dimensional SO2 flux from volcanic plumes will allow correlations with other volcano monitoring data streams to yield fundamental data on changes in gas flux as an eruption precursor, and how magmas de-gas prior to and during eruptions. Precision magnetic field data support the generation of real-time indices of geomagnetic disturbances (Dst, K and others), and can be used to model electrical currents in the crust and bulk power system. Ground-induced electrical current monitors are used to track those currents so that power grids can be effectively managed during geomagnetic storms. Beyond geophysical sensor data, USGS is using social media to rapidly detect possible earthquakes and to collect firsthand accounts of the impacts of natural disasters useful for social science studies. Monitoring of tweets in real-time, when analyzed statistically and geographically, can give a prompt indication of an earthquake, well before seismic networks in sparsely instrumented regions can locate an event and determine its magnitude. With more and more real-time data becoming available, new applications and products are inevitable.

Regional Assessment of Storm-triggered Shall Landslide Risks using the SLIDE (SLope-Infiltration-Distributed Equilibrium) Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Y.; Kirschbaum, D. B.; Fukuoka, H.

2011-12-01

The key to advancing the predictability of rainfall-triggered landslides is to use physically based slope-stability models that simulate the dynamical response of the subsurface moisture to spatiotemporal variability of rainfall in complex terrains. An early warning system applying such physical models has been developed to predict rainfall-induced shallow landslides over Java Island in Indonesia and Honduras. The prototyped early warning system integrates three major components: (1) a susceptibility mapping or hotspot identification component based on a land surface geospatial database (topographical information, maps of soil properties, and local landslide inventory etc.); (2) a satellite-based precipitation monitoring system (http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov) and a precipitation forecasting model (i.e. Weather Research Forecast); and (3) a physically-based, rainfall-induced landslide prediction model SLIDE (SLope-Infiltration-Distributed Equilibrium). The system utilizes the modified physical model to calculate a Factor of Safety (FS) that accounts for the contribution of rainfall infiltration and partial saturation to the shear strength of the soil in topographically complex terrains. The system's prediction performance has been evaluated using a local landslide inventory. In Java Island, Indonesia, evaluation of SLIDE modeling results by local news reports shows that the system successfully predicted landslides in correspondence to the time of occurrence of the real landslide events. Further study of SLIDE is implemented in Honduras where Hurricane Mitch triggered widespread landslides in 1998. Results shows within the approximately 1,200 square kilometers study areas, the values of hit rates reached as high as 78% and 75%, while the error indices were 35% and 49%. Despite positive model performance, the SLIDE model is limited in the early warning system by several assumptions including, using general parameter calibration rather than in situ tests and neglecting geologic information. Advantages and limitations of this model will be discussed with respect to future applications of landslide assessment and prediction over large scales. In conclusion, integration of spatially distributed remote sensing precipitation products and in-situ datasets and physical models in this prototype system enable us to further develop a regional early warning tool in the future for forecasting storm-induced landslides.

Development of TEC fluctuations in northern and southern hemispheres on the base of GPS observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shagimuratov, Irk; Krankowski, Andrzej; Sieradzki, Rafal; Ephishov, I. I.

GPS technique is widely used to study the global structure and dynamics of the ionosphere. In this paper GPS observations carried out at Arctic and Antarctic stations belonging to the IGS network were used to study TEC fluctuations in the high-latitude ionosphere during the ionospheric storms. Dual-frequency GPS phase measurements along individual satellite passes served as raw data. It was shown that ionospheric irregularities of a different scale were devel-oped in the auroral and polar ionosphere. It is a common phenomenon caused phase fluctuations of GPS signals. In November 2009, West Department of IZMIRAN in Kaliningrad (Russia) and University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn (Poland) established computer server for automatic monitoring of these irregularities. The rate of TEC index (ROTI) expressed in TECU/min was used as a measure of TEC fluctuations. During its operation TEC variations related to ionospheric structures of a spatial scale more than 200-300 km were detected. Large-scale ionospheric structures cause an increase in horizontal gradients and difficulties with the carrier phase ambiguity resolution in GPS positioning. In turn, the phase fluctuations can cause cycle-slip effects. At the polar stations, ionospheric structures with TEC enhanced by a factor of 3-5 relative to the background were detected, whereas TEC increased to 5-8 TECU in about 10-15 min. These structures were observed during a storm, as well as during a moderate geomagnetic activity. It can be probably attributed to the polar cap patches. In this study are presented the extended and more detailed analyses of TEC fluctuations in both the northern and southern hemispheres and compare the winter and summer events (November and July 2004 storms). A special attention is given to the features related to TEC fluctuations occur-rence in both hemispheres for conjugated GPS stations. The temporal development of both storms was rather similar. During storms the intensity of irregularities essentially increases and its location expands to equator. Maximal activity of TEC fluctuations took place when IMF Bz component was negative. Storm-time development of TEC fluctuations caused by ionospheric irregularities was controlled by UT. At polar stations TEC fluctuations were more expressed at southern (winter) hemisphere. Over auroral stations the difference of TEC fluctuations oc-currence was less expressed. During storm the strong TEC fluctuations can be registered at subauroral ionosphere (on latitudes lower than 55 CGL). The seasonal effect in this area also took place. Differences and similarities of these storms occurrence of TEC fluctuations with dependence on season are discussed.

Atmospheric inputs of organic matter to a forested watershed: Variations from storm to storm over the seasons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iavorivska, Lidiia; Boyer, Elizabeth W.; Miller, Matthew P.; Brown, Michael G.; Vasilopoulos, Terrie; Fuentes, Jose D.; Duffy, Christopher J.

2016-12-01

The objectives of this study were to determine the quantity and chemical composition of precipitation inputs of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to a forested watershed; and to characterize the associated temporal variability. We sampled most precipitation that occurred from May 2012 through August 2013 at the Susquehanna Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory (Pennsylvania, USA). Sub-event precipitation samples (159) were collected sequentially during 90 events; covering various types of synoptic meteorological conditions in all climatic seasons. Precipitation DOC concentrations and rates of wet atmospheric DOC deposition were highly variable from storm to storm, ranging from 0.3 to 5.6 mg C L-1 and from 0.5 to 32.8 mg C m-2 h-1, respectively. Seasonally, storms in spring and summer had higher concentrations of DOC and more optically active organic matter than in winter. Higher DOC concentrations resulted from weather types that favor air advection, where cold frontal systems, on average, delivered more than warm/stationary fronts and northeasters. A mixed modeling statistical approach revealed that factors related to storm properties, emission sources, and to the chemical composition of the atmosphere could explain more than 60% of the storm to storm variability in DOC concentrations. This study provided observations on changes in dissolved organic matter that can be useful in modeling of atmospheric oxidative chemistry, exploring relationships between organics and other elements of precipitation chemistry, and in considering temporal changes in ecosystem nutrient balances and microbial activity.

Grumman OV-1C in flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1983-01-01

Grumman OV-1C in flight. This OV-1C Mohawk, serial #67-15932, was used in a joint NASA/US Army Aviation Engineering Flight Activity (USAAEFA) program to study a stall-speed warning system in the early 1980s. NASA designed and built an automated stall-speed warning system which presented both airspeed and stall speed to the pilot. Visual indication of impending stall would be displayed to the pilot as a cursor or pointer located on a conventional airspeed indicator. In addition, an aural warning at predetermined stall margins was presented to the pilot through a voice synthesizer. The Mohawk was developed by Grumman Aircraft as a photo observation and reconnaissance aircraft for the US Marines and the US Army. The OV-1 entered production in October 1959 and served the US Army in Europe, Korea, the Viet Nam War, Central and South America, Alaska, and during Desert Shield/Desert Storm in the Middle East. The Mohawk was retired from service in September 1996. 133 OV-1Cs were built, the 'C' designating the model which used an IR (infrared) imaging system to provide reconnaissance.

The eSurge-Venice project: how satellite data can improve the storm surge forecasting in the northern Adriatic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zecchetto, Stefano; Vignudelli, Stefano; Donlon, Craig; De Biasio, Francesco; Della Valle, Antonio; Umgiesser, Georg; Bajo, Marco

The Data User Element (DUE) program of the European Space Agency (ESA) is funding two projects (eSurge and eSurge-Venice) aimed to demonstrate the improvement of the storm surge forecasting through the use of Earth Observation (EO) data. eSurge-Venice (http://www.esurge-venice.eu/), is specifically focused on the Gulf of Venice, northern Adriatic Sea. The project objectives are: a) Select a number of Storm Surge Events occurred in the Venice lagoon since 1999; b) Provide the available satellite EO data related to the Storm Surge Events, mainly satellite winds and altimeter data, as well as all the available in-situ data and model forecasts; c) Provide a demonstration Near Real Time service (eSurge-Venice live) of EO data products and services in support of operational and experimental forecasting and warning services; d) Run a number of re-analysis cases, both for historical and contemporary storm surge events, to demonstrate the usefulness of EO data. Present storm surge models use atmospheric model wind fields as forcing. These are know to underestimate the wind in small basins like the Adriatic Sea (~1000 km by 300 km), where the orography plays an important role in shaping the winds. Therefore there is the need to verify and tune the atmospheric model wind fields used in the storm surge modeling, an activity which can easily done using satellite scatterometer winds. The project is now in the middle of his life, and promising preliminary results have been achieved using satellite scatterometer wind data to forge the atmospheric model wind fields forcing the storm surge model. This contribution will present the methodology adopted to tune the model wind fields according to the bias with scatterometer winds and the improvements induced in the storm surge model hindcast.

Are Indiana's Public Schools in Need of Education Deregulation? Education Policy Brief. Volume 4, Number 1, Winter 2006

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spradlin, Terry E.; Plucker, Jonathan A.; Prendergast, Kelly A.; Bell, Brittany L.

2006-01-01

In November 2004, the Subcommittee on K-12 Education submitted a report to the Indiana Government Efficiency Commission that outlined recommendations regarding K-12 spending efficiencies. The report was explicit in its warning that the current regulatory structure of education in Indiana was not conducive to improving achievement for all students,…

Lightning injuries during snowy conditions

PubMed Central

Cherington, M.; Breed, D. W.; Yarnell, P. R.; Smith, W. E.

1998-01-01

Skiers and other snow sports enthusiasts can become lightning casualties. Two such accidents are reported, one being fatal. There are fewer warning signals of impending lightning strikes in winter-like conditions. However, outdoor activists should be aware of at least two suspicious clues: the appearance of convective clouds, and the presence of graupel (snow pellets) during precipitation. 




 PMID:9865407

A new short-term forecasting model for the total electron content storm time disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsagouri, Ioanna; Koutroumbas, Konstantinos; Elias, Panagiotis

2018-06-01

This paper aims to introduce a new model for the short-term forecast of the vertical Total Electron Content (vTEC). The basic idea of the proposed model lies on the concept of the Solar Wind driven autoregressive model for Ionospheric short-term Forecast (SWIF). In its original version, the model is operationally implemented in the DIAS system (http://dias.space.noa.gr) and provides alerts and warnings for upcoming ionospheric disturbances, as well as single site and regional forecasts of the foF2 critical frequency over Europe up to 24 h in advance. The forecasts are driven by the real time assessment of the solar wind conditions at ACE location. The comparative analysis of the variations in foF2 and vTEC during eleven geomagnetic storm events that occurred in the present solar cycle 24 reveals similarities but also differences in the storm-time response of the two characteristics with respect to the local time and the latitude of the observation point. Since the aforementioned dependences drive the storm-time forecasts of the SWIF model, the results obtained here support the upgrade of the SWIF's modeling technique in forecasting the storm-time vTEC variation from its onset to full development and recovery. According to the proposed approach, the vTEC storm-time response can be forecasted from 1 to 12-13 h before its onset, depending on the local time of the observation point at storm onset at L1. Preliminary results on the assessment of the performance of the proposed model and further considerations on its potential implementation in operational mode are also discussed.

77 FR 16047 - Oregon; Major Disaster and Related Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-19

.... FEMA-4055-DR; Docket ID FEMA-2012-0002] Oregon; Major Disaster and Related Determinations AGENCY... declaration of a major disaster for the State of Oregon (FEMA-4055-DR), dated March 2, 2012, and related... determined that the damage in certain areas of the State of Oregon resulting from a severe winter storm...

Tracking Dramatic Changes at Hawaii's Only Alpine Lake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patrick, Matthew R.; Delparte, Donna

2014-04-01

Lake Waiau is a small lake (normally 100 meters in diameter) just below the summit of Mauna Kea Volcano (elevation of 4207 meters) on the island of Hawaii. The only alpine lake in the Hawaiian Islands, it is fed mainly by sporadic winter storms that drop snow in the otherwise arid summit region.

Mesquite's Hull is lowered to its final resting place in ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

Mesquite's Hull is lowered to its final resting place in Lake Superior. The tender ran aground on rocks several months earlier and was battered by winter storms. The wrecked vessel became part of an underwater preserve and is regularly visited by recreational divers - U.S. Coast Guard Cutter MESQUITE, Charlevoix, Charlevoix County, MI

77 FR 15787 - Washington; Major Disaster and Related Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-16

... declaration of a major disaster for the State of Washington (FEMA-4056-DR), dated March 5, 2012, and related determinations. DATES: Effective Date: March 5, 2012. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Peggy Miller, Office of... determined that the damage in certain areas of the State of Washington resulting from a severe winter storm...

Remembering the "S. S. Edmund Fitzgerald"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DiLisi, Gregory A.; Rarick, Richard A.

2015-01-01

November 10, 2015, marked the 40th anniversary of the sinking of the "S. S. Edmund Fitzgerald," a Great Lakes bulk cargo freighter that suddenly and mysteriously sank during a severe winter storm on Lake Superior. A year after the sinking, Canadian folksinger Gordon Lightfoot wrote and recorded the ballad "The Wreck of the 'Edmund…

76 FR 11307 - California Disaster #CA-00162

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-03-01

... Administrative declaration of a disaster for the State of California dated 02/02/2011. Incident: Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Debris and Mud Flows. Incident Period: 12/17/2010 through 01/04/2011. Effective... declaration for the State of California, dated 02/02/2011 is hereby amended to include the following areas as...

Identifying Climate Model Teleconnection Mechanisms Between Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Mid-Latitude Winter Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kravitz, B.; Mills, C.; Rasch, P. J.; Wang, H.; Yoon, J. H.

2016-12-01

The role of Arctic amplification, including observed decreases in sea ice concentration, thickness, and extent, with potential for exciting downstream atmospheric responses in the mid-latitudes, is a timely issue. We identify the role of the regionality of autumn sea ice loss on downstream mid-latitude responses using engineering methodologies adapted to climate modeling, which allow for multiple Arctic sea regions to be perturbed simultaneously. We evaluate downstream responses in various climate fields (e.g., temperature, precipitation, cloud cover) associated with perturbations in the Beaufort/Chukchi Seas and the Kara/Barents Seas. Simulations suggest that the United States response is primarily linked to sea ice changes in the Beaufort/Chukchi Seas, whereas Eurasian response is primarily due to Kara/Barents sea ice coverage changes. Downstream effects are most prominent approximately 6-10 weeks after the initial perturbation (sea ice loss). Our findings suggest that winter mid-latitude storms (connected to the so-called "Polar Vortex") are linked to sea ice loss in particular areas, implying that further sea ice loss associated with climate change will exacerbate these types of extreme events.

Astronomical and atmospheric impacts on deep-sea hydrothermal vent invertebrates

PubMed Central

Legendre, Pierre; Matabos, Marjolaine; Mihály, Steve; Lee, Raymond W.; Sarradin, Pierre-Marie; Arango, Claudia P.; Sarrazin, Jozée

2017-01-01

Ocean tides and winter surface storms are among the main factors driving the dynamics and spatial structure of marine coastal species, but the understanding of their impact on deep-sea and hydrothermal vent communities is still limited. Multidisciplinary deep-sea observatories offer an essential tool to study behavioural rhythms and interactions between hydrothermal community dynamics and environmental fluctuations. Here, we investigated whether species associated with a Ridgeia piscesae tubeworm vent assemblage respond to local ocean dynamics. By tracking variations in vent macrofaunal abundance at different temporal scales, we provide the first evidence that tides and winter surface storms influence the distribution patterns of mobile and non-symbiotic hydrothermal species (i.e. pycnogonids Sericosura sp. and Polynoidae polychaetes) at more than 2 km depth. Local ocean dynamics affected the mixing between hydrothermal fluid inputs and surrounding seawater, modifying the environmental conditions in vent habitats. We suggest that hydrothermal species respond to these habitat modifications by adjusting their behaviour to ensure optimal living conditions. This behaviour may reflect a specific adaptation of vent species to their highly variable habitat. PMID:28381618

High-Latitude Topside Ionospheric Vertical Electron-Density-Profile Changes in Response to Large Magnetic Storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Benson, Robert F.; Fainberg, Joseph; Osherovich, Vladimir A.; Truhlik, Vladimir; Wang, Yongli; Bilitza, Dieter; Fung, Shing F.

2015-01-01

Large magnetic-storm induced changes have been detected in high-latitude topside vertical electron-density profiles Ne(h). The investigation was based on the large database of topside Ne(h) profiles and digital topside ionograms from the International Satellites for Ionospheric Studies (ISIS) program available from the NASA Space Physics Data Facility (SPDF) at http://spdf.gsfc.nasa.gov/isis/isis-status.html. This large database enabled Ne(h) profiles to be obtained when an ISIS satellite passed through nearly the same region of space before, during, and after a major magnetic storm. A major goal was to relate the magnetic-storm induced high-latitude Ne(h) profile changes to solar-wind parameters. Thus an additional data constraint was to consider only storms where solar-wind data were available from the NASA/SPDF OMNIWeb database. Ten large magnetic storms (with Dst less than -100 nT) were identified that satisfied both the Ne(h) profile and the solar-wind data constraints. During five of these storms topside ionospheric Ne(h) profiles were available in the high-latitude northern hemisphere and during the other five storms similar ionospheric data were available in the southern hemisphere. Large Ne(h) changes were observed during each one of these storms. Our concentration in this paper is on the northern hemisphere. The data coverage was best for the northern-hemisphere winter. Here Ne(h) profile enhancements were always observed when the magnetic local time (MLT) was between 00 and 03 and Ne(h) profile depletions were always observed between 08 and 10 MLT. The observed Ne(h) deviations were compared with solar-wind parameters, with appropriate time shifts, for four storms.

The influence of mid-latitude storm tracks on hot, cold, dry and wet extremes

PubMed Central

Lehmann, Jascha; Coumou, Dim

2015-01-01

Changes in mid-latitude circulation can strongly affect the number and intensity of extreme weather events. In particular, high-amplitude quasi-stationary planetary waves have been linked to prolonged weather extremes at the surface. In contrast, analyses of fast-traveling synoptic-scale waves and their direct influence on heat and cold extremes are scarce though changes in such waves have been detected and are projected for the 21st century. Here we apply regression analyses of synoptic activity with surface temperature and precipitation in monthly gridded observational data. We show that over large parts of mid-latitude continental regions, summer heat extremes are associated with low storm track activity. In winter, the occurrence of cold spells is related to low storm track activity over parts of eastern North America, Europe, and central- to eastern Asia. Storm tracks thus have a moderating effect on continental temperatures. Pronounced storm track activity favors monthly rainfall extremes throughout the year, whereas dry spells are associated with a lack thereof. Trend analyses reveal significant regional changes in recent decades favoring the occurrence of cold spells in the eastern US, droughts in California and heat extremes over Eurasia. PMID:26657163

Teleconnections, Midlatitude Cyclones and Aegean Sea Turbulent Heat Flux Variability on Daily Through Decadal Time Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Romanski, Joy; Romanou, Anastasia; Bauer, Michael; Tselioudis, George

2013-01-01

We analyze daily wintertime cyclone variability in the central and eastern Mediterranean during 1958-2001, and identify four distinct cyclone states, corresponding to the presence or absence of cyclones in each basin. Each cyclone state is associated with wind flows that induce characteristic patterns of cooling via turbulent (sensible and latent) heat fluxes in the eastern Mediterranean basin and Aegean Sea. The relative frequency of occurrence of each state determines the heat loss from the Aegean Sea during that winter, with largest heat losses occurring when there is a storm in the eastern but not central Mediterranean (eNOTc), and the smallest occurring when there is a storm in the central but not eastern Mediterranean (cNOTe). Time series of daily cyclone states for each winter allow us to infer Aegean Sea cooling for winters prior to 1985, the earliest year for which we have daily heat flux observations. We show that cyclone states conducive to Aegean Sea convection occurred in 1991/1992 and 1992/1993, the winters during which deep water formation was observed in the Aegean Sea, and also during the mid-1970s and the winters of 1963/1964 and 1968/1969. We find that the eNOTc cyclone state is anticorrelated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) prior to 1977/1978. After 1977/1978, the cNOTe state is anticorrelated with both the NAO and the North Caspian Pattern (NCP), showing that the area of influence of large scale atmospheric teleconnections on regional cyclone activity shifted from the eastern to the central Mediterranean during the late 1970s. A trend toward more frequent occurrence of the positive phase of the NAO produced less frequent cNOTe states since the late 1970s, increasing the number of days with strong cooling of the Aegean Sea surface waters.

GOES-S Liftoff

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-03-01

A United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket lifts off from Space Launch Complex 41 at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station carrying the NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, or GOES-S. Liftoff was at 5:02 p.m. EST. GOES-S is the second satellite in a series of next-generation weather satellites. It will launch to a geostationary position over the U.S. to provide images of storms and help predict weather forecasts, severe weather outlooks, watches, warnings, lightning conditions and longer-term forecasting.

The Development of High-speed Full-function Storm Surge Model and the Case Study of 2013 Typhoon Haiyan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, Y. L.; Wu, T. R.; Lin, C. Y.; Chuang, M. H.; Lin, C. W.

2016-02-01

An ideal storm surge operational model should feature as: 1. Large computational domain which covers the complete typhoon life cycle. 2. Supporting both parametric and atmospheric models. 3. Capable of calculating inundation area for risk assessment. 4. Tides are included for accurate inundation simulation. Literature review shows that not many operational models reach the goals for the fast calculation, and most of the models have limited functions. In this paper, a well-developed COMCOT (COrnell Multi-grid Coupled of Tsunami Model) tsunami model is chosen as the kernel to establish a storm surge model which solves the nonlinear shallow water equations on both spherical and Cartesian coordinates directly. The complete evolution of storm surge including large-scale propagation and small-scale offshore run-up can be simulated by nested-grid scheme. The global tide model TPXO 7.2 established by Oregon State University is coupled to provide astronomical boundary conditions. The atmospheric model named WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) is also coupled to provide metrological fields. The high-efficiency thin-film method is adopted to evaluate the storm surge inundation. Our in-house model has been optimized by OpenMp (Open Multi-Processing) with the performance which is 10 times faster than the original version and makes it an early-warning storm surge model. In this study, the thorough simulation of 2013 Typhoon Haiyan is performed. The detailed results will be presented in Oceanic Science Meeting of 2016 in terms of surge propagation and high-resolution inundation areas.

The May 1967 Great Storm and Radio Disruption Event: The Impacts We Didn't Know About

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knipp, D.

2016-12-01

Although listed as one of the most significant events of the last 80 years, the space weather storm of late May 1967 has been of mostly fading academic interest. The storm made its initial mark with a colossal solar radio burst causing radio interference at frequencies between 0.01-9.0 GHz and near-simultaneous disruptions of dayside radio communication by intense fluxes of ionizing solar X-rays. Aspects of military control and communication were immediately challenged. Within hours a solar energetic particle event disrupted high frequency communication in the polar cap. Subsequently record-setting geomagnetic and ionospheric storms compounded the disruptions. We explain how the May 1967 storm was nearly one with ultimate societal impact, were it not for the nascent efforts of the United States Air Force in expanding its terrestrial weather monitoring-analysis-warning-prediction efforts into the realm of space weather forecasting. This event is also one with severe impacts on thermospheric temperature and satellite drag. This story develops during the rapid rise of solar cycle 20 and the intense Cold War in the latter half of the 20th Century. We detail the events of late May 1967 in the intersecting categories of solar-terrestrial interactions and the political-military backdrop of the Cold War. This was one of the "Great Storms" of the 20th century, despite the lack of large geomagnetically-induced currents. Radio disruptions like those discussed here warrant the attention of today's radio-reliant, cellular-phone and satellite-navigation enabled world.

Recent Responses of Western North American Forests and Hydroclimate to Pacific Storm Track Position and Intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dannenberg, M. P.; Wise, E.

2017-12-01

Much of the precipitation delivered to western North America arrives during the October to March cool season via midlatitude Pacific storm tracks, which may shift in the future due to climate change. Using historical climate, tree-ring, and remote sensing data, we assessed the sensitivity of western North American hydroclimate and ecosystems to the position and intensity of cool-season Pacific storm tracks. From 1980-2014, mean annual cool-season storm tracks entered western North America between approximately 41°N to 53°N, with substantial interannual variability in both the position and intensity of the storm tracks. We examined relationships between storm tracks and two hydroclimatic variables: the cool-season standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index and April snow water equivalent. We also assessed how historical storm track variability affected ecosystems using forest growth estimates from a large tree-ring network as well as land surface phenology and wildfire estimates from AVHRR and Landsat, respectively. Cool-season moisture supply and snowpack responded strongly to storm track position, with positive correlations to storm track latitude in eastern Alaska and northwestern Canada but negative correlations in the northwestern U.S. These hydroclimatic impacts were largely driven by the latitudinal position of storm tracks during the "shoulder" seasons (i.e., autumn and early spring). Ecosystems of the western U.S. tended to be greener and more productive following winters with south-shifted storm tracks, while Canadian ecosystems were greener in years when the cool-season storm track was shifted to the north. On average, larger areas of the northwestern U.S. were burned by moderate to high severity wildfires when storm tracks were displaced north, and the average burn area per fire also tended to be higher in years with north-shifted storm tracks. Assuming that these historical relationships continue to hold under future climate scenarios, our results suggest that projected long-term shifts of Pacific storm tracks over the 21st century would likely alter hydroclimatic and ecological regimes in western North America, particularly in the northwestern U.S., where moisture supply and ecosystem processes are highly sensitive to the position of cool-season storm tracks.

Hydrographic and particle distributions over the Palos Verdes continental shelf: Spatial, seasonal and daily variability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, B.H.; Noble, M.A.; Dickey, T.D.

2002-01-01

Moorings and towyo mapping were used to study the temporal and spatial variability of physical processes and suspended particulate material over the continental shelf of the Palos Verdes Peninsula in southwestern Los Angeles, California during the late summer of 1992 and winter of 1992-93. Seasonal evolution of the hydrographic structure is related to seasonal atmospheric forcing. During summer, stratification results from heating of the upper layer. Summer insolation coupled with the stratification results in a slight salinity increase nearsurface due to evaporation. Winter cooling removes much of the upper layer stratification, but winter storms can introduce sufficient quantities of freshwater into the shelf water column again adding stratification through the buoyancy input. Vertical mixing of the low salinity surface water deeper into the water column decreases the sharp nearsurface stratification and reduces the overall salinity of the upper water column. Moored conductivity measurements indicate that the decreased salinity persisted for at least 2 months after a major storm with additional freshwater inputs through the period. Four particulate groups contributed to the suspended particulate load in the water column: phytoplankton, resuspended sediments, and particles in treated sewage effluent were observed in every towyo mapping cruise; terrigenous particles are introduced through runoff from winter rainstorms. Terrigenous suspended particulate material sinks from the water column in <9 days and phytoplankton respond to the stormwater input of buoyancy and nutrients within the same period. The suspended particles near the bottom have spatially patchy distributions, but are always present in hydrographic surveys of the shelf. Temporal variations in these particles do not show a significant tidal response, but they may be maintained in suspension by internal wave and tide processes impinging on the shelf. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A new climate index controlling winter wave activity along the Atlantic coast of Europe: The West Europe Pressure Anomaly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castelle, Bruno; Dodet, Guillaume; Masselink, Gerd; Scott, Tim

2017-02-01

A pioneering and replicable method based on a 66-year numerical weather and wave hindcast is developed to optimize a climate index based on the sea level pressure (SLP) that best explains winter wave height variability along the coast of western Europe, from Portugal to UK (36-52°N). The resulting so-called Western Europe Pressure Anomaly (WEPA) is based on the sea level pressure gradient between the stations Valentia (Ireland) and Santa Cruz de Tenerife (Canary Islands). The WEPA positive phase reflects an intensified and southward shifted SLP difference between the Icelandic low and the Azores high, driving severe storms that funnel high-energy waves toward western Europe southward of 52°N. WEPA outscores by 25-150% the other leading atmospheric modes in explaining winter-averaged significant wave height, and even by a largest amount the winter-averaged extreme wave heights. WEPA is also the only index capturing the 2013/2014 extreme winter that caused widespread coastal erosion and flooding in western Europe.

Typhoon Man-Yi

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2007-01-01

Typhoon Man-Yi was pummeling the Japanese island of Okinawa with winds between 230 and 295 kilometers per hour (125-160 knots, 144-184 miles per hour) and heavy rain on the morning of July 13, 2007, when the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra satellite captured this image. The immense storm covered hundreds of kilometers with spiraling bands of thunderstorms, though it had lost the distinctive cloud-free eye it exhibited the day before. Typhoons are common in Japan, but powerful typhoons usually strike the island nation later in the year. The Japan Meteorological Agency said that Man-Yi is the fourth typhoon of the 2007 season and may be the most powerful ever observed in the northwest Pacific in July, reported Kyodo News. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center expected the typhoon to strike Kyushu, a southern Japanese island, on July 14, and then curve northeast along the eastern shore of Japan. By the time the storm reaches Tokyo on July 15, it should be degraded to a tropical storm. As of July 13, Typhoon Man-Yi had injured eight and flooded twenty houses in Okinawa, and forced airlines to cancel hundreds of flights, said Kyodo News. The storm was expected to bring heavy rain to Japan's Pacific coast. NASA image created by Jesse Allen, using data provided courtesy of the MODIS Rapid Response team.

Tropical Cyclone Paul

NASA Image and Video Library

2010-03-30

NASA image March 29, 2010 Tropical Cyclone Paul spanned the ocean waters between Australia and New Guinea on March 29, 2010. The MODIS on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this natural-color image the same day. The center of the cyclone is along the coast of Northern Territory’s Arnhem Land. Clouds run counter-clockwise across the Gulf of Carpentaria and Cape York Peninsula, over New Guinea’s Pulau Dolok, and over the Arafura Sea. On March 29, 2010, the U.S. Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) reported that Tropical Cyclone Paul storm had maximum sustained winds of 60 knots (110 kilometers per hour) and gusts up to 75 knots (140 kilometers per hour). The storm was located roughly 315 nautical miles (585 kilometers) east of Darwin. The storm had moved slowly toward the southwest over the previous several hours. The JTWC forecast that the storm would likely maintain its current intensity for several more hours before slowly dissipating over land. Credit: NASA/GSFC/Jeff Schmaltz/MODIS To learn more about this image go to: modis.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/individual.php?db_date=2010-0... NASA Goddard Space Flight Center is home to the nation's largest organization of combined scientists, engineers and technologists that build spacecraft, instruments and new technology to study the Earth, the sun, our solar system, and the universe.

Assessment of beach and dune erosion and accretion using LiDAR: Impact of the stormy 2013-14 winter and longer term trends on the Sefton Coast, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pye, Kenneth; Blott, Simon J.

2016-08-01

An important question for coastal management concerns the importance of individual storms and clusters of storms on longer term beach sediment budgets, beach and dune erosion, and coastal flood risk. Between October 2013 and March 2014 a series of deep Atlantic low pressure systems crossed the Northeast Atlantic, and strong winds, high waves and high water levels affected many coastal areas in the UK and other parts of western Europe. Net dune recession of up to 12.1 m occurred around Formby Point. On 5 December 2013 the highest water level ever recorded at Liverpool (6.22 m ODN) coincided with waves of Hs of 4.55 m and Tp of 9.3 s in Liverpool Bay. Wave trimming of the dune toe occurred along the entire length of the Sefton coast, but significant dune erosion occurred only where the upper beach (between the mean high water spring tide level and the dune toe) was < 25 m wide. Sediment budget calculations based on LiDAR surveys in October 2013 and May 2014 indicated a net loss of 127 × 103 m3 of sediment from the beach (above 0 m ODN) and a loss of 268 × 103 m3 from the frontal dune system, mostly at Formby Point. However, some parts of the beach to the south of Formby Point gained sediment, indicating net north to south transport over the winter. When considered in a longer term context, the 2013-14 winter represents only a small perturbation on the longer-term coast trend of erosion at Formby Point and progradation to the north and south. Analysis of LiDAR data over a longer time period 1999-2014 indicated upper beach and dune sediment loss of 780 × 103 m3 from the north-central part of Formby Point, with net gains of 806 × 103 m3 and 2116 × 103 m3 in areas to the north and south, respectively. This indicates a net onshore transport of 2142 × 103 m3 from Liverpool Bay towards the coast between Birkdale and Altcar, with a further net total of 210 × 103 m3 transported towards the shore between Altcar and Crosby. In view of the demonstrated value of airborne LiDAR surveys for the quantification of storm impacts and longer term coastal changes, it is recommended that such surveys should be undertaken before and after each winter storm period, covering the area between mean low water spring tide level and a line 200 m landward of the dune toe, of as a part of the regional coastal monitoring programme.

A Bandwidth-Efficient Dissemination Scheme of Non-Safety Information in Urban VANETs †

PubMed Central

Garcia-Lozano, Estrella; Campo, Celeste; Garcia-Rubio, Carlos; Rodriguez-Carrion, Alicia

2016-01-01

The recent release of standards for vehicular communications will hasten the development of smart cities in the following years. Many applications for vehicular networks, such as blocked road warnings or advertising, will require multi-hop dissemination of information to all vehicles in a region of interest. However, these networks present special features and difficulties that may require special measures. The dissemination of information may cause broadcast storms. Urban scenarios are especially sensitive to broadcast storms because of the high density of vehicles in downtown areas. They also present numerous crossroads and signal blocking due to buildings, which make dissemination more difficult than in open, almost straight interurban roadways. In this article, we discuss several options to avoid the broadcast storm problem while trying to achieve the maximum coverage of the region of interest. Specifically, we evaluate through simulations different ways to detect and take advantage of intersections and a strategy based on store-carry-forward to overcome short disconnections between groups of vehicles. Our conclusions are varied, and we propose two different solutions, depending on the requirements of the application. PMID:27355956

Lightning Applications in Weather and Climate Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, Colin G.

2013-11-01

Thunderstorms, and lightning in particular, are a major natural hazard to the public, aviation, power companies, and wildfire managers. Lightning causes great damage and death every year but also tells us about the inner working of storms. Since lightning can be monitored from great distances from the storms themselves, lightning may allow us to provide early warnings for severe weather phenomena such as hail storms, flash floods, tornadoes, and even hurricanes. Lightning itself may impact the climate of the Earth by producing nitrogen oxides (NOx), a precursor of tropospheric ozone, which is a powerful greenhouse gas. Thunderstorms themselves influence the climate system by the redistribution of heat, moisture, and momentum in the atmosphere. What about future changes in lightning and thunderstorm activity? Many studies show that higher surface temperatures produce more lightning, but future changes will depend on what happens to the vertical temperature profile in the troposphere, as well as changes in water balance, and even aerosol loading of the atmosphere. Finally, lightning itself may provide a useful tool for tracking climate change in the future, due to the nonlinear link between lightning, temperature, upper tropospheric water vapor, and cloud cover.

A Bandwidth-Efficient Dissemination Scheme of Non-Safety Information in Urban VANETs.

PubMed

Garcia-Lozano, Estrella; Campo, Celeste; Garcia-Rubio, Carlos; Rodriguez-Carrion, Alicia

2016-06-27

The recent release of standards for vehicular communications will hasten the development of smart cities in the following years. Many applications for vehicular networks, such as blocked road warnings or advertising, will require multi-hop dissemination of information to all vehicles in a region of interest. However, these networks present special features and difficulties that may require special measures. The dissemination of information may cause broadcast storms. Urban scenarios are especially sensitive to broadcast storms because of the high density of vehicles in downtown areas. They also present numerous crossroads and signal blocking due to buildings, which make dissemination more difficult than in open, almost straight interurban roadways. In this article, we discuss several options to avoid the broadcast storm problem while trying to achieve the maximum coverage of the region of interest. Specifically, we evaluate through simulations different ways to detect and take advantage of intersections and a strategy based on store-carry-forward to overcome short disconnections between groups of vehicles. Our conclusions are varied, and we propose two different solutions, depending on the requirements of the application.

Generation of a Catalogue of European Windstorms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varino, Filipa; Baptiste Granier, Jean; Bordoy, Roger; Arbogast, Philippe; Joly, Bruno; Riviere, Gwendal; Fandeur, Marie-Laure; Bovy, Henry; Mitchell-Wallace, Kirsten; Souch, Claire

2016-04-01

The probability of multiple wind-storm events within a year is crucial to any (re)insurance company writing European wind business. Indeed, the volatility of losses is enhanced by the clustering of storms (cyclone families), as occurred in early 1990 (Daria, Vivian, Wiebke), December 1999 (Lothar, Martin) or December 2015 (Desmond, Eva, Frank), among others. In order to track winter extratropical cyclones, we use the maximum relative vorticity at 850 hPa of the new-released long-term ERA-20C reanalysis from the ECMWF since the beginning of the 20th Century until 2010. We develop an automatic procedure to define events. We then quantify the severity of each storm using loss and meteorological indices at country and Europe-wide level. Validation against market losses for the period 1970-2010 is undertaken before considering the severity and frequency of European windstorms for the 110 years period.

A twenty-first century California observing network for monitoring extreme weather events

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, A.B.; Anderson, M.L.; Dettinger, M.D.; Ralph, F.M.; Hinojosa, A.; Cayan, D.R.; Hartman, R.K.; Reynolds, D.W.; Johnson, L.E.; Schneider, T.L.; Cifelli, R.; Toth, Z.; Gutman, S.I.; King, C.W.; Gehrke, F.; Johnston, P.E.; Walls, C.; Mann, Dorte; Gottas, D.J.; Coleman, T.

2013-01-01

During Northern Hemisphere winters, the West Coast of North America is battered by extratropical storms. The impact of these storms is of paramount concern to California, where aging water supply and flood protection infrastructures are challenged by increased standards for urban flood protection, an unusually variable weather regime, and projections of climate change. Additionally, there are inherent conflicts between releasing water to provide flood protection and storing water to meet requirements for water supply, water quality, hydropower generation, water temperature and flow for at-risk species, and recreation. In order to improve reservoir management and meet the increasing demands on water, improved forecasts of precipitation, especially during extreme events, is required. Here we describe how California is addressing their most important and costliest environmental issue – water management – in part, by installing a state-of-the-art observing system to better track the area’s most severe wintertime storms.

Application of Nimbus-6 microwave data to problems in precipitation prediction for the Pacific west coast

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Viezee, W.; Shigeishi, H.; Chang, A. T. C.

1979-01-01

The preliminary results of a research study that emphasizes the analysis and interpretation of data related to total precipitable water and nonprecipitating cloud liquid water obtained from NIMBUS-6 SCAMS are reported. Sixteen cyclonic storm situations in the northeastern Pacific Ocean that resulted in significant rainfall along the west coast of the United States during the winter season October 1975 through February 1976 are analyzed in terms of their distributions and amounts of total water vapor and liquid water, as obtained from SCAMS data. The water-substance analyses for each storm case are related to the distribution and amount of coastal precipitation observed during the subsequent time period when the storm system crosses the coastline. Concomitant precipitation predictions from the LFM are also incorporated. Techniques by which satellite microwave data over the ocean can be used to improve precipitation prediction for the Pacific West Coast are emphasized.

During a winter of storms in a small UK catchment, hydrology and water quality responses follow a clear rural-urban gradient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGrane, Scott J.; Hutchins, Michael G.; Miller, James D.; Bussi, Gianbattista; Kjeldsen, Thomas R.; Loewenthal, Matt

2017-02-01

This paper presents the hydrological and water quality response from a series of extreme storm events that passed across the UK during the winter of 2013/2014, in an experimental catchment with a strong rural-urban gradient across four nested sub-catchment areas. The Ray catchment in the upper Thames basin, UK, was extensively monitored using in-situ, high-resolution (15 min) flow and water quality instrumentation. Dissolved oxygen, ammonium, turbidity and specific conductivity are used to characterise the water quality dynamics. The impact of the Swindon sewage treatment works (SSTW) on water chemistry at the catchment outlet is considerable. Hydrological and water-quality response varies considerably during the events, with the rural catchments exhibiting a much slower hydrological response compared to urban areas. A simple hydrological model (TETIS) was developed to provide insight into water sources in nested subcatchments, highlighting the disparity of the hydrological dynamics across contrasting land-uses during events. The variation in stormwater runoff sources impacts water quality signals with urban sites contributing to dilution dynamics in ammonium, whereas the more rural site experiences a peak in ammonium during the same event. Dissolved oxygen concentrations vary on a rural-urban gradient and experience a notable sag at the Water Eaton outlet (4.4 mg/l) during the events, that would have resulted in significant ecological harm had they occurred during the summer in warmer temperatures. The water-quality legacy of these storms in the wider context of the hydrological year is somewhat negligible, with markedly poorer water quality signals being observed during the summer months of 2014. Although ammonium concentrations during the events are elevated (above the 'good' status threshold under the WFD), higher values are observed during spring and summer months. The high flows actually appear to flush contaminants out of the Ray and its subcatchments, though the urban sites demonstrate a resupply dynamic during interim dry periods. Data suggest winter storms following dry spells in urban catchments cause some short-lived and spatially extensive deteriorations in water quality. More chronic effects, although prolonged, are only seen downstream of SSTW. These are indicative of capacity of infrastructure being reached, and from the data do not appear to be severe enough to cause ecological harm.

From precipitation to ice cores: an isotopic comparison at Summit, Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopec, B. G.; Feng, X.; Adolph, A. C.; Virginia, R. A.; Posmentier, E. S.

2015-12-01

The observed deuterium excess (d-excess) in ice cores from Summit, Greenland has high summer values and low winter values, which is opposite of the seasonal variations of most northern hemisphere locations. The interpretation of this d-excess seasonality in the context of moisture source changes is made more complicated by possible post-depositional modifications. We investigate potential post-depositional modifications within 3-4 years after precipitation events by collecting precipitation samples and comparing them with snow pit profiles at Summit. Precipitation was sampled on a storm-by-storm basis from July 2011 to September 2014. To assess the effect of wind blown snow on cross-storm contamination, we sampled at three heights (1, 2, and 4 m). Snow pits were sampled in the summers of 2013 and 2015 to span the entirety of our precipitation record. All samples were analyzed for δD and δ18O and d-excess was calculated. Mixing of snow between different storms was identified only for samples collected at the lowest height. We thus use the samples collected at the top height for interpretation. The annual cycle of precipitation isotopes follow the established seasonal relationship with the average summer enrichment of -217 and -29‰, and winter depletion of -317 and -40‰ for δD and δ18O, respectively. The d-excess shows an average summer maximum of 16‰ and winter minimum of 3‰. In the snow pit, the seasonal amplitude and phase of both oxygen and hydrogen isotopic ratios as well as the d-excess compare remarkably well with those of the precipitation. The profile appeared to be devoid of major post depositional effects except for a thin layer that changed during a melt event in 2012. However, this type of event is extremely rare at Summit, and should not significantly compromise the interpretation of precipitation isotopes in ice cores, except perhaps during climatic warm period summers. The precipitation d-excess seasonality is typically interpreted as resulting from changing moisture sources, but this does not explain the positive relationship between d-excess and d18O at Summit, Greenland. We propose that moisture sublimated from the snow surface, which typically has high d-excess values, may be an important moisture source captured in the isotope record.

Hourly Water Quality Dynamics in Rivers Downstream of Urban Areas: Quantifying Seasonal Variation and Modelling Impacts of Urban Growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hutchins, M.; McGrane, S. J.; Miller, J. D.; Hitt, O.; Bowes, M.

2016-12-01

Continuous monitoring of water flows and quality is invaluable in improving understanding of the influence of urban areas on river health. When used to inform predictive modelling, insights can be gained as to how urban growth may affect the chemical and biological quality of rivers as they flow downstream into larger waterbodies. Water flow and quality monitoring in two urbanising sub-catchments (<100 km2) of the River Thames (southern UK) is described. Temperature, conductivity, turbidity, dissolved oxygen (DO) and ammonium (NH4) were measured at downstream locations where long term flow records are available, but particular focus is given to monitoring of an extended set of sites during prolonged winter rainfall. In the Ray sub-catchment streams were monitored in which urban cover varied across a range of 7-78%. A rural-urban gradient in DO was apparent in the low flow period prior to the storms. Transient low DO (< 8 mg L-1) as a response to pollutant first flushes was particularly apparent in urban streams but this was followed by a rapid recovery. Chronic effects lasting for three to four weeks were only seen downstream of a sewage treatment works (STW). In this respect temperature- and respiration-driven DO sags in summer were at least if not more severe than those driven by the winter storms. Likewise, although winter storm NH4 concentrations violated EU legislation downstream of the STW, they were lower than summer concentrations in pollutant flushes following dry spells. In contrast the predominant phenomenon affecting water quality in the Cut during the storms was dilution. Here, a river water quality model was calibrated and applied over the course of a year to capture the importance of periphyton photosynthesis and respiration cycles in determining water quality and to predict the influence of hypothetical urban growth on downstream river health. The periods monitored intensively, dry spells followed by prolonged rainfall, represent: (i) marked changes in conditions likely to become more prevalent in future, (ii) situations under which water quality in urban areas is likely to be particularly vulnerable, being influenced for example by first flush effects followed by capacity exceedance at STW. Despite this, whilst being somewhat long lasting in places, impacts on DO were not severe.