Differences in Meteorological Conditions between Days with Persistent and Non-Persistent Pollution in Beijing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

You, Ting; Wu, Renguang; Huang, Gang

2018-02-01

We compared the regional synoptic patterns and local meteorological conditions during persistent and non-persistent pollution events in Beijing using US NCEP-Department of Energy reanalysis outputs and observations from meteorological stations. The analysis focused on the impacts of high-frequency (period < 90 days) variations in meteorological conditions on persistent pollution events (those lasting for at least 3 days). Persistent pollution events tended to occur in association with slow-moving weather systems producing stagnant weather conditions, whereas rapidly moving weather systems caused a dramatic change in the local weather conditions so that the pollution event was short-lived. Although Beijing was under the influence of anomalous southerly winds in all four seasons during pollution events, notable differences were identified in the regional patterns of sea-level pressure and local anomalies in relative humidity among persistent pollution events in different seasons. A region of lower pressure was present to the north of Beijing in spring, fall, and winter, whereas regions of lower and higher pressures were observed northwest and southeast of Beijing, respectively, in summer. The relative humidity near Beijing was higher in fall and winter, but lower in spring and summer. These differences may explain the seasonal dependence of the relationship between air pollution and the local meteorological variables. Our analysis showed that the temperature inversion in the lower troposphere played an important part in the occurrence of air pollution under stagnant weather conditions. Some results from this study are based on a limited number of events and thus require validation using more data.

Proactive approach to transportation resource allocation under severe winter weather emergencies.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-01-01

Severe winter weather dramatically reduces road transportation infrastructure : serviceability and decreases safety throughout Oklahoma. Although it has relatively mild winters : when compared with northern regions of the United States, Oklahoma has ...

Winter weather demand considerations.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-04-01

Winter weather has varied effects on travel behavior. Using 418 survey responses from the Northern Virginia : commuting area of Washington, D.C. and binary logit models, this study examines travel related changes under : different types of winter wea...

Atmospheric conditions and weather regimes associated with extreme winter dry spells over the Mediterranean basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raymond, Florian; Ullmann, Albin; Camberlin, Pierre; Oueslati, Boutheina; Drobinski, Philippe

2018-06-01

Very long dry spell events occurring during winter are natural hazards to which the Mediterranean region is extremely vulnerable, because they can lead numerous impacts for environment and society. Four dry spell patterns have been identified in a previous work. Identifying the main associated atmospheric conditions controlling the dry spell patterns is key to better understand their dynamics and their evolution in a changing climate. Except for the Levant region, the dry spells are generally associated with anticyclonic blocking conditions located about 1000 km to the Northwest of the affected area. These anticyclonic conditions are favourable to dry spell occurrence as they are associated with subsidence of cold and dry air coming from boreal latitudes which bring low amount of water vapour and non saturated air masses, leading to clear sky and absence of precipitation. These extreme dry spells are also partly related to the classical four Euro-Atlantic weather regimes are: the two phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Scandinavian "blocking" or "East-Atlantic", and the "Atlantic ridge". Only the The "East-Atlantic", "Atlantic ridge" and the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation are frequently associated with extremes dry spells over the Mediterranean basin but they do not impact the four dry spell patterns equally. Finally long sequences of those weather regimes are more favourable to extreme dry spells than short sequences. These long sequences are associated with the favourable prolonged and reinforced anticyclonic conditions

Maintenance decision support system deployment guide

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-07-01

This is a guide for transportation professionals on why and how to deploy winter Maintenance Decision Support Systems (MDSS). Adverse winter weather can cause traffic delays and crashes. Treating the effects of winter weather can also have impacts on...

Safety and mobility impacts of winter weather : phase I.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-08-01

Highway agencies spend millions of dollars to ensure safe and efficient winter travel. However, the effectiveness of winter weather maintenance practices on safety and mobility are somewhat difficult to quantify. : Phase I of this project investigate...

Safety and mobility impacts of winter weather - phase 3.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-09-01

Highway agencies spend millions of dollars to ensure safe and efficient winter travel. However, the effectiveness of winter-weather : maintenance practices on safety and mobility are somewhat difficult to quantify. Safety and Mobility Impacts of Wint...

Effects of drought and prolonged winter on Townsend's ground squirrel demography in shrubsteppe habitats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van Horne, Beatrice; Olson, Gail S.; Schooley, Robert L.; Corn, Janelle G.; Burnham, Kenneth P.

1997-01-01

During a mark–recapture study of Townsend's ground squirrels (Spermophilus townsendii) on 20 sites in the Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area, Idaho, in 1991 through 1994, 4407 animals were marked in 17639 capture events. This study of differences in population dynamics of Townsend's ground squirrels among habitats spanned a drought near the extreme of the 130-yr record, followed by prolonged winter conditions.Townsend's ground squirrels have a short active season (≈4 mo) in which to reproduce and store fat for overwintering. Their food consists largely of succulent grasses and forbs in this dry shrubsteppe and grassland habitat. The drought in the latter half of the 1992 active season produced early drying of Sandberg's bluegrass (Poa secunda) and was associated with low adult and juvenile body masses prior to immergence into estivation/hibernation. The following prolonged winter was associated with late emergence of females in 1993. Early-season body masses of adults were low in 1993 relative to 1992, whereas percentage of body fat in males was relatively high. These weather patterns in spring 1992 and winter 1993 also resulted in reduced adult persistence through the ≈7-mo inactive period, especially for adult females, and near-zero persistence of >1200 juveniles. Consequently, densities of Townsend's ground squirrels across the 20 livetrap sites declined.The demographic effects of drought and prolonged winter lasted at least through the subsequent breeding season. Adult females that survived these weather extremes produced fewer emergent young per female than did adult females prior to the event. Prior to the drought/prolonged winter, yearling female body masses were higher than, or indistinguishable from, those of adults. Females produced in 1993 had lower body masses as yearlings than did adult females.Demographic response to the drought and prolonged winter varied with habitat; ground squirrels in sagebrush habitat showed less decline in persistence and density and produced more young per female during the next active season following the drought (1993) than did ground squirrels in grassland habitat, where densities had been significantly higher prior to the drought and prolonged winter.Studies involving habitat comparisons of animal demography should always be placed in the context of long-term weather patterns, because habitat quality rankings based on density, reproduction, and survival may differ with environmental conditions. Physiological effects of environmental “crunches” on consumers may persist beyond the period of influence on food resources, reducing reproductive success and growth rates of future offspring.

Research on best practices for winter weather operations.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-10-01

There is a growing need to identify actionable practices relative to winter weather operations. Because of the : potential and inherent hazards during cold weather, it has become increasingly important to ensure that these : practices can be effectiv...

Seeing is Believing? An Examination of Perceptions of Local Weather Conditions and Climate Change Among Residents in the U.S. Gulf Coast.

PubMed

Shao, Wanyun; Goidel, Kirby

2016-11-01

What role do objective weather conditions play in coastal residents' perceptions of local climate shifts and how do these perceptions affect attitudes toward climate change? While scholars have increasingly investigated the role of weather and climate conditions on climate-related attitudes and behaviors, they typically assume that residents accurately perceive shifts in local climate patterns. We directly test this assumption using the largest and most comprehensive survey of Gulf Coast residents conducted to date supplemented with monthly temperature data from the U.S. Historical Climatology Network and extreme weather events data from National Climatic Data Center. We find objective conditions have limited explanatory power in determining perceptions of local climate patterns. Only the 15- and 19-year hurricane trends and decadal summer temperature trend have some effects on perceptions of these weather conditions, while the decadal trend of total number of extreme weather events and 15- and 19-year winter temperature trends are correlated with belief in climate change. Partisan affiliation, in contrast, plays a powerful role affecting individual perceptions of changing patterns of air temperatures, flooding, droughts, and hurricanes, as well as belief in the existence of climate change and concern for future consequences. At least when it comes to changing local conditions, "seeing is not believing." Political orientations rather than local conditions drive perceptions of local weather conditions and these perceptions-rather than objectively measured weather conditions-influence climate-related attitudes. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Shifts in the seasonal distribution of deaths in Australia, 1968-2007

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, Charmian M.; Dear, Keith B. G.; McMichael, Anthony J.

2014-07-01

Studies in temperate countries have shown that both hot weather in summer and cold weather in winter increase short-term (daily) mortality. The gradual warming, decade on decade, that Australia has experienced since the 1960s, might therefore be expected to have differentially affected mortality in the two seasons, and thus indicate an early impact of climate change on human health. Failure to detect such a signal would challenge the widespread assumption that the effect of weather on mortality implies a similar effect of a change from the present to projected future climate. We examine the ratio of summer to winter deaths against a background of rising average annual temperatures over four decades: the ratio has increased from 0.71 to 0.86 since 1968. The same trend, albeit of varying strength, is evident in all states of Australia, in four age groups (aged 55 years and above) and in both sexes. Analysis of cause-specific mortality suggests that the change has so far been driven more by reduced winter mortality than by increased summer mortality. Furthermore, comparisons of this seasonal mortality ratio calculated in the warmest subsets of seasons in each decade, with that calculated in the coldest seasons, show that particularly warm annual conditions, which mimic the expected temperatures of future climate change, increase the likelihood of higher ratios (approaching 1:1). Overall, our results indicate that gradual climate change, as well as short-term weather variations, affect patterns of mortality.

The response of a Kansas winter bird community to weather, photoperiod, and year

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stapanian, M.A.; Smith, C.C.; Finck, E.J.

1999-01-01

We conducted a bird census along the same route nearly each week for 14 winters (194 censuses), and compared the mean number of species per station and the total number of species recorded on the census with the length of photoperiod and weather variables. We found significant differences among winters for both indicators of species richness. This result is consistent with previous studies in which abundance of food was measured in the same general area. Both indicators of species richness were negatively associated with the number of days after 1 November. This result is consistent with the hypothesis that wintering species dependent on nonrenewed food resources lose individuals to mortality or emigration. Further, there was a positive relationship between photoperiod and both indicators of species richness. This result is consistent with the hypothesis that the detection of individuals in the early morning hours increases with the amount of daylight they have available for foraging and social behaviors. Wind speed and temperature had negative and positive relationships, respectively, to species richness. The number of species per station was greatest on days when the ground was covered with dew and least on days when snow depth was more than 15 cm. When the 'winters' were divided into four 30-day 'quarters', most of the 61 species were recorded with equal frequency in each quarter. Eight species were detected less frequently at the end of winter than in the beginning. Four species exhibited the reverse pattern. Two species were recorded more frequently at the beginning and at the end of the winter than during the middle. Temperature, wind, photoperiod, successive winter day, year, and species-specific evolutionary history all affect winter bird species richness.

Timing of seasonal migration in mule deer: effects of climate, plant phenology, and life-history characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Monteith, Kevin L.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Stephenson, Thomas R.; Pierce, Beck M.; Conner, Mary M.; Klaver, Robert W.; Bowyer, R. Terry

2011-01-01

Phenological events of plants and animals are sensitive to climatic processes. Migration is a life-history event exhibited by most large herbivores living in seasonal environments, and is thought to occur in response to dynamics of forage and weather. Decisions regarding when to migrate, however, may be affected by differences in life-history characteristics of individuals. Long-term and intensive study of a population of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA, allowed us to document patterns of migration during 11 years that encompassed a wide array of environmental conditions. We used two new techniques to properly account for interval-censored data and disentangle effects of broad-scale climate, local weather patterns, and plant phenology on seasonal patterns of migration, while incorporating effects of individual life-history characteristics. Timing of autumn migration varied substantially among individual deer, but was associated with the severity of winter weather, and in particular, snow depth and cold temperatures. Migratory responses to winter weather, however, were affected by age, nutritional condition, and summer residency of individual females. Old females and those in good nutritional condition risked encountering severe weather by delaying autumn migration, and were thus risk-prone with respect to the potential loss of foraging opportunities in deep snow compared with young females and those in poor nutritional condition. Females that summered on the west side of the crest of the Sierra Nevada delayed autumn migration relative to east-side females, which supports the influence of the local environment on timing of migration. In contrast, timing of spring migration was unrelated to individual life-history characteristics, was nearly twice as synchronous as autumn migration, differed among years, was related to the southern oscillation index, and was influenced by absolute snow depth and advancing phenology of plants. Plasticity in timing of migration in response to climatic conditions and plant phenology may be an adaptive behavioral strategy, which should reduce the detrimental effects of trophic mismatches between resources and other life-history events of large herbivores. Failure to consider effects of nutrition and other life-history traits may cloud interpretation of phenological patterns of mammals and conceal relationships associated with climate change.

The Advanced Transportation Weather Information System (ATWIS)

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-01-01

Understanding and interpreting weather information can be critical to the success of any winter snow and ice removal operation. Knowing when, where and what type of deicing material to use for a particular winter weather event can be a challenge to e...

Weather severity index on a mule deer winter range. [Odocoileus hemionus hemionus

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leckenby, D.A.; Adams, A.W.

1986-05-01

Temperature, wind, and snow conditions predictably affect the nutrition, behavior, distribution, productivity, and mortality of free-ranging cattle and big game in winter. Indexing of data obtained with commonly available weather instruments to reflect episodes of positive and negative energy balances of free-ranging ruminants could aid scheduling of feeding programs and planning of cover-forage manipulations. Such a weather severity index was developed and tested over 11 winters. Plausible levels of stress and episodes of relative severity were depicted during winters when mule deer exhibited low, moderate, and high mortality. The index curves mirrored over-winter declines of fat reserves probably sustained bymore » mule deer. Lesser weather severity was predicted and measured in a western juniper woodland than in an adjacent rabbitbrush steppe community in southcentral Oregon. 32 references, 3 figures, 2 tables.« less

Using Conditional Analysis to Investigate Spatial and Temporal patterns in Upland Rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakamoto Ferranti, Emma Jayne; Whyatt, James Duncan; Timmis, Roger James

2010-05-01

The seasonality and characteristics of rainfall in the UK are altering under a changing climate. Summer rainfall is generally decreasing whereas winter rainfall is increasing, particularly in northern and western areas (Maraun et al., 2008) and recent research suggests these rainfall increases are amplified in upland areas (Burt and Ferranti, 2010). Conditional analysis has been used to investigate these rainfall patterns in Cumbria, an upland area in northwest England. Cumbria was selected as an example of a topographically diverse mid-latitude region that has a predominately maritime and westerly-defined climate. Moreover it has a dense network of more than 400 rain gauges that have operated for periods between 1900 and present day. Cumbria has experienced unprecedented flooding in the past decade and understanding the spatial and temporal changes in this and other upland regions is important for water resource and ecosystem management. The conditional analysis method examines the spatial and temporal variations in rainfall under different synoptic conditions and in different geographic sub-regions (Ferranti et al., 2009). A daily synoptic typing scheme, the Lamb Weather Catalogue, was applied to classify rainfall into different weather types, for example: south-westerly, westerly, easterly or cyclonic. Topographic descriptors developed using GIS were used to classify rain gauges into 6 directionally-dependant geographic sub-regions: coastal, windward-lowland, windward-upland, leeward-upland, leeward-lowland, secondary upland. Combining these classification methods enabled seasonal rainfall climatologies to be produced for specific weather types and sub-regions. Winter rainfall climatologies were constructed for all 6 sub-regions for 3 weather types - south-westerly (SW), westerly (W), and cyclonic (C); these weather types contribute more than 50% of total winter rainfall. The frequency of wet-days (>0.3mm), the total winter rainfall and the average wet day rainfall amount were analysed for each rainfall sub-region and weather type from 1961-2007 (Ferranti et al., 2010). The conditional analysis showed total rainfall under SW and W weather types to be increasing, with the greatest increases observed in the upland sub-regions. The increase in total SW rainfall is driven by a greater occurrence of SW rain days, and there has been little change to the average wet-day rainfall amount. The increase in total W rainfall is driven in part by an increase in the frequency of wet-days, but more significantly by an increase in the average wet-day rainfall amount. In contrast, total rainfall under C weather types has decreased. Further analysis will investigate how spring, summer and autumn rainfall climatologies have changed for the different weather types and sub-regions. Conditional analysis that combines GIS and synoptic climatology provides greater insights into the processes underlying readily available meteorological data. Dissecting Cumbrian rainfall data under different synoptic and geographic conditions showed the observed changes in winter rainfall are not uniform for the different weather types, nor for the different geographic sub-regions. These intricate details are often lost during coarser resolution analysis, and conditional analysis will provide a detailed synopsis of Cumbrian rainfall processes against which Regional Climate Model (RCM) performance can be tested. Conventionally RCMs try to simulate composite rainfall over many different weather types and sub-regions and by undertaking conditional validation the model performance for individual processes can be tested. This will help to target improvements in model performance, and ultimately lead to better simulation of rainfall in areas of complex topography. BURT, T. P. & FERRANTI, E. J. S. (2010) Changing patterns of heavy rainfall in upland areas: a case study from northern England. Atmospheric Environment, [in review]. FERRANTI, E. J. S., WHYATT, J. D. & TIMMIS, R. J. (2009) Development and application of topographic descriptors for conditional analysis of rainfall. Atmospheric Science Letters, 10, 177-184. FERRANTI, E. J. S., WHYATT, J. D., TIMMIS, R. J. & DAVIES, G. (2010) Using GIS to investigate spatial and temporal variations in upland rainfall. Transactions in GIS, [in press]. MARAUN, D., OSBORN, T. J. & GILLETT, N. P. (2008) United Kingdom daily precipitation intensity: improved early data, error estimates and an update from 2000 to 2006. International Journal of Climatology, 28, 833-842.

Circulation weather types and their influence on precipitation in Serbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Putniković, Suzana; Tošić, Ivana; Đurđević, Vladimir

2016-10-01

An objective classification scheme of atmospheric circulation, in which daily circulation is determined by the strength, direction, and vorticity of geostrophic flow, has been applied to the atmosphere over Serbia for the time period 1961-2010. The results for the sea level and isobaric level of 500 hPa for winter and summer are presented. The 26 circulation types (eight pure direction, 16 hybrid, cyclonic, and anticyclonic types) are determined and described. Each of the circulation types has a distinct underlying synoptic pattern that produces the expected type and direction of flow over the study area. The relative frequencies of the circulation types, and the relationship between the precipitation and circulation types at three stations on a seasonal time scale are analyzed. The anticyclonic weather type dominates in winter (18.93 %) and summer (18.70 %), followed by the northeasterly type (16.65 %) in summer, and the cyclonic type (12.83 %) in winter. The cyclonic types (C and hybrid) have a higher than average probability of rain at all stations. Conversely, the anticyclonic types are associated with a lower than average probability and intensity of rainfall.

Funnel Beaker weather (6200-4900 cal BP) - reconstructed from the palaeolimnological record of synchronously deposited varves in northern Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dreibrodt, Stefan; Zahrer, Jürgen; Brauer, Achim

2013-04-01

Depositional patterns of synchronously deposited varves of Lake Belauer See and Lake Poggensee (northern Germany) were studied on thin sections under the microscope comparatively. Events and trends that occurred synchronously in the lake systems were detected and interpret as limnologic responses to supra-regional extrinsic (climate) drivers. The different thresholds of the compared lake systems implied by different lake size were utilized to infer about weather conditions. For Lake Belauer See microfacies types of sub-recent varves were proved to reflect responses of certain meteorological conditions (e.g. severity of winters). A short weather anomaly at around 5950 cal BP was detected. Cold summers of about 40 successive years (probably with sudden frost events) lead to breaks of the thermal summer stratification and the associated carbonate precipitation. Instead renewed blooms of planctic diatoms occurred. The subsequent interval of the Funnel Beaker Culture seems to have experienced a period with favorable wea¬ther conditions, with warm summers and not extra-ordinary severe winters. Between ca. 5400 and 5340 cal BP an interval with pronounced warm winters is indicated. The favorable weather conditions termina¬ted abruptly at around 5275 cal BP when the weather (in particular summers) became colder. The comparison of the sediment sequences also provides evidence for the asynchronic onset of anthropogenic activity in the catchment areas of the lakes. A significant increase of minerogenic matter (quartz grains) indication soil erosion in the lake catchment started at ca. 3850 cal BC in Lake Poggensee, and at ca. 3500 cal BC in Lake Belau. Cycles of minerogenic input have been detected with duration of 20-25 years. Whether these cycles could represent slash and burn cycles has to be studied further.

Local weather, regional climate, and annual survival of the northern spotted owl

USGS Publications Warehouse

Glenn, E.M.; Anthony, R.G.; Forsman, E.D.; Olson, G.S.

2011-01-01

We used an information-theoretical approach and Cormack-Jolly-Seber models for open populations in program MARK to examine relationships between survival rates of Northern Spotted Owls and a variety of local weather variables and long-term climate variables. In four of the six populations examined, survival was positively associated with wetter than normal conditions during the growing season or high summer temperatures. At the three study areas located at the highest elevations, survival was positively associated with winter temperature but also had a negative or quadratic relation with the number of storms and winter precipitation. A metaanalysis of all six areas combined indicated that annual survival was most strongly associated with phase shifts in the Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which reflect large-scale temperature and precipitation patterns in this region. Climate accounted for a variable amount (1-41%) of the total process variation in annual survival but for more year-to-year variation (3-66%) than did spatial variation among owl territories (0-7%). Negative associations between survival and cold, wet winters and nesting seasons were similar to those found in other studies of the Spotted Owl. The relationships between survival and growing-season precipitation and regional climate patterns, however, had not been reported for this species previously. Climate-change models for the first half of the 21st century predict warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers for the Pacific Northwest. Our results indicate that these conditions could decrease Spotted Owl survival in some areas. Copyright ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2011.

Damage to southern Michigan conifers during the winter of 1976-77

Treesearch

Jonathan W. Wright; Donald DeHayes; Walter A. Lemmien

1977-01-01

In southern Michigan, the winter of 1976-1977 was marked by unseasonably cold weather in early December, prolonged cold weather in December and January, severe drought at the onset of cold weather, and by higher than average absolute minimum temperatures. Damage, presumably from the early December cold weather, was severe to southern seedlots of ponderosa pine,...

Quantifying uncertainty in real time performance measurement for highway winter maintenance operations - phase 2.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-10-01

Winter weather in Iowa is often unpredictable and can have an adverse impact on traffic flow. The Iowa Department of : Transportation (Iowa DOT) attempts to lessen the impact of winter weather events on traffic speeds with various proactive : mainten...

Stopover ecology of neotropical migrants in central Veracruz, México

Treesearch

Ernesto Ruelas Inzunza; Stephen W. Hoffman; Laurie J. Goodrich

2005-01-01

Available information on the ecology of neotropical migrants during the winter season and especially during migration is far behind the existing knowledge of birds during the breeding season. This paper presents a stopover ecology case study. We document the occurrence of species, outline the prevailing weather patterns during spring and fall migration seasons, and...

Historical winter weather assessment for snow fence design using a numerical weather model.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-03-30

Noriaki Ohara, Ph.D., Assistant Professor (0000-0002-7829-0779) : Snow fence is an effective hazard mitigation measure for the low visibility and low friction of the road surface under : winter weather condition. Prevailing wind directions and snow p...

Large-scale climate variation modifies the winter grouping behavior of endangered Indiana bats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thogmartin, Wayne E.; McKann, Patrick C.

2014-01-01

Power laws describe the functional relationship between 2 quantities, such as the frequency of a group as the multiplicative power of group size. We examined whether the annual size of well-surveyed wintering populations of endangered Indiana bats (Myotis sodalis) followed a power law, and then leveraged this relationship to predict whether the aggregation of Indiana bats in winter was influenced by global climate processes. We determined that Indiana bat wintering populations were distributed according to a power law (mean scaling coefficient α = −0.44 [95% confidence interval {95% CI} = −0.61, −0.28). The antilog of these annual scaling coefficients ranged between 0.67 and 0.81, coincident with the three-fourths power found in many other biological phenomena. We associated temporal patterns in the annual (1983–2011) scaling coefficient with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index in August (βNAOAugust = −0.017 [90% CI = −0.032, −0.002]), when Indiana bats are deciding when and where to hibernate. After accounting for the strong effect of philopatry to habitual wintering locations, Indiana bats aggregated in larger wintering populations during periods of severe winter and in smaller populations in milder winters. The association with August values of the NAO indicates that bats anticipate future winter weather conditions when deciding where to roost, a heretofore unrecognized role for prehibernation swarming behavior. Future research is needed to understand whether the three-fourths–scaling patterns we observed are related to scaling in metabolism.

Quantifying uncertainty in real time performance measurement for highway winter maintenance operations - phase 2 : [tech transfer summary].

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-10-01

Winter weather in Iowa is often unpredictable and can have a large : impact on traffic flow. The Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) : attempts to lessen the impact of winter weather events on traffic speeds : with various maintenance operations....

Black brant from Alaska staging and wintering in Japan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Derksen, Dirk V.; Bollinger, K.S.; Ward, David H.; Sedinger, J.S.; Miyabayashi, Y.

1996-01-01

Black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) nest in colonies in arctic Canada, Alaska, and Russia (Derksen and Ward 1993, Sedinger et al. 1993). Virtually the entire population stages in fall at Izembek Lagoon near the tip of the Alaska Peninsula (Bellrose 1976) before southward migration (Dau 1992) to winter habitats in British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, California, and Baja California (Subcommittee on Black Brant 1992). A small number of black brant winter in Japan, Korea, and China (Owen 1980). In Japan 3,000–5,000 brant of unknown origin stop over in fall, and a declining population (<1,000) of birds winter here, primarily in the northern islands (Brazil 1991, Miyabayashi et al. 1994). Here, we report sightings of brant in Japan that were marked in Alaska and propose a migration route based on historical and recent observations and weather patterns.

Coastal dynamics off Northwest Iberia during a stormy winter period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otero, Pablo; Ruiz-Villarreal, Manuel; García-García, Luz; González-Nuevo, Gonzalo; Cabanas, Jose Manuel

2013-01-01

The consequences of a stormy winter period (2009/2010) on the shelf and coastal dynamics off Northwest Iberia are analysed by using model results in combination with the set of available observations in the frame of the Iberian Margin Ocean Observatory (RAIA), a cross-border infrastructure among North Portugal and Galicia (Spain). During the study winter, the frequent arrival of weather fronts forced river plumes to flow along the inner shelf in a fast (>1 m s-1) jet-like structure. The buoyant current strongly influenced the outer rías, the name of the estuaries in the region, where a strong decay of surface salinity (<10.5) has been observed. Once the weather front has passed, the wind reversal forced the offshore expansion of river plumes and also the development of a winter upwelling event. Thermohaline patterns in both model and observations revealed an intrusion of warm (>15 °C) and salty (>35.9) waters into the rías associated with the Iberian Poleward Current. Finally, some Lagrangian modelling experiments were performed to analyse the transport ability of the plume and the effect that could have had in the biological material trapped on it. The experiments reveal that an overall northward displacement of surface particles will be expected after several alternate wind events.

Extreme cyclone events in the Arctic: Wintertime variability and trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rinke, A.; Maturilli, M.; Graham, R. M.; Matthes, H.; Handorf, D.; Cohen, L.; Hudson, S. R.; Moore, J. C.

2017-09-01

Typically 20-40 extreme cyclone events (sometimes called ‘weather bombs’) occur in the Arctic North Atlantic per winter season, with an increasing trend of 6 events/decade over 1979-2015, according to 6 hourly station data from Ny-Ålesund. This increased frequency of extreme cyclones is consistent with observed significant winter warming, indicating that the meridional heat and moisture transport they bring is a factor in rising temperatures in the region. The winter trend in extreme cyclones is dominated by a positive monthly trend of about 3-4 events/decade in November-December, due mainly to an increasing persistence of extreme cyclone events. A negative trend in January opposes this, while there is no significant trend in February. We relate the regional patterns of the trend in extreme cyclones to anomalously low sea-ice conditions in recent years, together with associated large-scale atmospheric circulation changes such as ‘blockinglike’ circulation patterns (e.g. Scandinavian blocking in December and Ural blocking during January-February).

Social perceptions versus meteorological observations of snow and winter along the Front Range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milligan, William James, IV

This research aims to increase understanding of Front Range residents' perceptions of snow, winter and hydrologic events. This study also investigates how an individual's characteristics may shape perceptions of winter weather and climate. A survey was administered to determine if perceptions of previous winters align with observed meteorological data. The survey also investigated how individual characteristics influence perceptions of snow and winter weather. The survey was conducted primarily along the Front Range area of the state of Colorado in the United States of America. This is a highly populated semi-arid region that acts as an interface between the agricultural plains to the east that extend to the Mississippi River and the Rocky Mountains to the west. The climate is continental, and while many people recreate in the snowy areas of the mountains, most live where annual snowfall amounts are low. Precipitation, temperature, and wind speed datasets from selected weather stations were analyzed to determine correct survey responses. Survey analysis revealed that perceptions of previous winters do not necessarily align with observed meteorological data. The mean percentage of correct responses to all survey questions was 36.8%. Further analysis revealed that some individual characteristics (e.g. winter recreation, source of winter weather information) did influence correct responses to survey questions.

NATURAL AND ATHROPOGENIC FACTORS AFFECTING GLOBAL AND REGIONAL CLIMATE

EPA Science Inventory

New England weather is highly variable for a number of
reasons. Our regional climate is also quite variable. The
winters of the past decade are milder than they were in the
1960s and 1970s but as the ice-out and snowfall data show
(Figs 2.5 and 2.6), the patterns of c...

Maple sugaring with vacuum pumping during the fall season

Treesearch

H. Clay Smith; Alan G., Jr. Snow

1971-01-01

Vacuum pumping of sugar maple trees during the late fall and early winter months is not advisable in northern Vermont. However, fall pumping may be profitable in other areas of the sugar maple range. It is recommended that the weather pattern in a given locale be observed; and if conditions are favorable, vacuum pumping should be tried on a small scale before...

Relative influence of human harvest, carnivores, and weather on adult female elk survival across western North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brodie, Jedediah; Johnson, Heather; Mitchell, Michael; Zager, Peter; Proffitt, Kelly; Hebblewhite, Mark; Kauffman, Matthew; Johnson, Bruce; Bissonette, John; Bishop, Chad; Gude, Justin; Herbert, Jeff; Hersey, Kent R.; Hurley, Mark; Lukacs, Paul M.; McCorquodale, Scott; McIntire, Eliot; Nowak, Josh; Sawyer, Hall; Smith, Douglas; White, P.J.

2013-01-01

Well-informed management of harvested species requires understanding how changing ecological conditions affect demography and population dynamics, information that is lacking for many species. We have limited understanding of the relative influence of carnivores, harvest, weather and forage availability on elk Cervus elaphus demography, despite the ecological and economic importance of this species. We assessed adult female survival, a key vital rate for population dynamics, from 2746 radio-collared elk in 45 populations across western North America that experience wide variation in carnivore assemblage, harvest, weather and habitat conditions. Proportional hazard analysis revealed that 'baseline' (i.e. not related to human factors) mortality was higher with very high winter precipitation, particularly in populations sympatric with wolves Canis lupus. Mortality may increase via nutritional stress and heightened vulnerability to predation in snowy winters. Baseline mortality was unrelated to puma Puma concolor presence, forest cover or summer forage productivity. Cause-specific mortality analyses showed that wolves and all carnivore species combined had additive effects on baseline elk mortality, but only reduced survival by <2%. When human factors were included, ‘total’ adult mortality was solely related to harvest; the influence of native carnivores was compensatory. Annual total mortality rates were lowest in populations sympatric with both pumas and wolves because managers reduced female harvest in areas with abundant or diverse carnivores. Mortality from native carnivores peaked in late winter and early spring, while harvest-induced mortality peaked in autumn. The strong peak in harvest-induced mortality during the autumn hunting season decreased as the number of native carnivore species increased. Synthesis and applications. Elevated baseline adult female elk mortality from wolves in years with high winter precipitation could affect elk abundance as winters across the western US become drier and wolves recolonize portions of the region. In the absence of human harvest, wolves had additive, although limited, effects on mortality. However, human harvest, and its apparent use by managers to offset predation, primarily controls overall variation in adult female mortality. Altering harvest quotas is thus a strong tool for offsetting impacts of carnivore recolonization and shifting weather patterns on elk across western North America.

Impacts of large-scale atmospheric circulation changes in winter on black carbon transport and deposition to the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pozzoli, Luca; Dobricic, Srdan; Russo, Simone; Vignati, Elisabetta

2017-10-01

Winter warming and sea-ice retreat observed in the Arctic in the last decades may be related to changes of large-scale atmospheric circulation pattern, which may impact the transport of black carbon (BC) to the Arctic and its deposition on the sea ice, with possible feedbacks on the regional and global climate forcing. In this study we developed and applied a statistical algorithm, based on the maximum likelihood estimate approach, to determine how the changes of three large-scale weather patterns associated with increasing temperatures in winter and sea-ice retreat in the Arctic impact the transport of BC to the Arctic and its deposition. We found that two atmospheric patterns together determine a decreasing winter deposition trend of BC between 1980 and 2015 in the eastern Arctic while they increase BC deposition in the western Arctic. The increasing BC trend is mainly due to a pattern characterized by a high-pressure anomaly near Scandinavia favouring the transport in the lower troposphere of BC from Europe and North Atlantic directly into to the Arctic. Another pattern with a high-pressure anomaly over the Arctic and low-pressure anomaly over the North Atlantic Ocean has a smaller impact on BC deposition but determines an increasing BC atmospheric load over the entire Arctic Ocean with increasing BC concentrations in the upper troposphere. The results show that changes in atmospheric circulation due to polar atmospheric warming and reduced winter sea ice significantly impacted BC transport and deposition. The anthropogenic emission reductions applied in the last decades were, therefore, crucial to counterbalance the most likely trend of increasing BC pollution in the Arctic.

Impacts of Synoptic Weather Patterns on Snow Albedo at Sites in New England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adolph, A. C.; Albert, M. R.; Lazarcik, J.; Dibb, J. E.; Amante, J.; Price, A. N.

2015-12-01

Winter snow in the northeastern United States has changed over the last several decades, resulting in shallower snow packs, fewer days of snow cover and increasing precipitation falling as rain in the winter. In addition to these changes which cause reductions in surface albedo, increasing winter temperatures also lead to more rapid snow grain growth, resulting in decreased snow reflectivity. We present in-situ measurements and analyses to test the sensitivity of seasonal snow albedo to varying weather conditions at sites in New England. In particular, we investigate the impact of temperature on snow albedo through melt and grain growth, the impact of precipitation event frequency on albedo through snow "freshening," and the impact of storm path on snow structure and snow albedo. Over three winter seasons between 2013 and 2015, in-situ snow characterization measurements were made at three non-forested sites across New Hampshire. These near-daily measurements include spectrally resolved albedo, snow optical grain size determined through contact spectroscopy, snow depth, snow density and local meteorological parameters. Combining this information with storm tracks derived from HYSPLIT modeling, we quantify the current sensitivity of northeastern US snow albedo to temperature as well as precipitation type, frequency and path. Our analysis shows that southerly winter storms result in snow with a significantly lower albedo than storms which come from across the continental US or the Atlantic Ocean. Interannual variability in temperature and statewide spatial variability in snowfall rates at our sites show the relative importance of snowfall amount and temperatures in albedo evolution over the course of the winter.

Global meteorological influences on the record UK rainfall of winter 2013-14

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knight, Jeff R.; Maidens, Anna; Watson, Peter A. G.; Andrews, Martin; Belcher, Stephen; Brunet, Gilbert; Fereday, David; Folland, Chris K.; Scaife, Adam A.; Slingo, Julia

2017-07-01

The UK experienced record average rainfall in winter 2013-14, leading to widespread and prolonged flooding. The immediate cause of this exceptional rainfall was a very strong and persistent cyclonic atmospheric circulation over the North East Atlantic Ocean. This was related to a very strong North Atlantic jet stream which resulted in numerous damaging wind storms. These exceptional meteorological conditions have led to renewed questions about whether anthropogenic climate change is noticeably influencing extreme weather. The regional weather pattern responsible for the extreme UK winter coincided with highly anomalous conditions across the globe. We assess the contributions from various possible remote forcing regions using sets of ocean-atmosphere model relaxation experiments, where winds and temperatures are constrained to be similar to those observed in winter 2013-14 within specified atmospheric domains. We find that influences from the tropics were likely to have played a significant role in the development of the unusual extra-tropical circulation, including a role for the tropical Atlantic sector. Additionally, a stronger and more stable stratospheric polar vortex, likely associated with a strong westerly phase of the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), appears to have contributed to the extreme conditions. While intrinsic climatic variability clearly has the largest effect on the generation of extremes, results from an analysis which segregates circulation-related and residual rainfall variability suggest that emerging climate change signals made a secondary contribution to extreme rainfall in winter 2013-14.

Dynamical systems proxies of atmospheric predictability and mid-latitude extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Messori, Gabriele; Faranda, Davide; Caballero, Rodrigo; Yiou, Pascal

2017-04-01

Extreme weather ocurrences carry enormous social and economic costs and routinely garner widespread scientific and media coverage. Many extremes (for e.g. storms, heatwaves, cold spells, heavy precipitation) are tied to specific patterns of midlatitude atmospheric circulation. The ability to identify these patterns and use them to enhance the predictability of the extremes is therefore a topic of crucial societal and economic value. We propose a novel predictability pathway for extreme events, by building upon recent advances in dynamical systems theory. We use two simple dynamical systems metrics - local dimension and persistence - to identify sets of similar large-scale atmospheric flow patterns which present a coherent temporal evolution. When these patterns correspond to weather extremes, they therefore afford a particularly good forward predictability. We specifically test this technique on European winter temperatures, whose variability largely depends on the atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic region. We find that our dynamical systems approach provides predictability of large-scale temperature extremes up to one week in advance.

Weather-related indices of autumn–winter Dabbling Duck abundance in Middle North America

Treesearch

Michael L. Schummer; Richard Kaminski; Andrew H. Raedeke; David A. Graber

2010-01-01

Research on effects of key weather stimuli influencing waterfowl migration during autumn and winter is limited. We investigated relationships between changes in relative abundances of mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) and other dabbling ducks (Anas spp.) and weather variables at midlatitude locations in North America. We used waterfowl survey data from Missouri Conservation...

Risk of Fall-Related Injury due to Adverse Weather Events, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 2006-2011.

PubMed

Gevitz, Kathryn; Madera, Robbie; Newbern, Claire; Lojo, José; Johnson, Caroline C

Following a surge in fall-related visits to local hospital emergency departments (EDs) after a severe ice storm, the Philadelphia Department of Public Health examined the association between inclement winter weather events and fall-related ED visits during a 5-year period. Using a standardized set of keywords, we identified fall-related injuries in ED chief complaint logs submitted as part of Philadelphia Department of Public Health's syndromic surveillance from December 2006 through March 2011. We compared days when falls exceeded the winter fall threshold (ie, "high-fall days") with control days within the same winter season. We then conducted matched case-control analysis to identify weather and patient characteristics related to increased fall-related ED visits. Fifteen high-fall days occurred during winter months in the 5-year period. In multivariable analysis, 18- to 64-year-olds were twice as likely to receive ED care for fall-related injuries on high-fall days than on control days. The crude odds of ED visits occurring from 7:00 am to 10:59 am were 70% higher on high-fall days vs control days. Snow was a predictor of a high-fall day: the adjusted odds of snow before a high-fall day as compared with snow before a control day was 13.4. The association between the number of fall-related ED visits and weather-related fall injuries, age, and timing suggests that many events occurred en route to work in the morning. Promoting work closures or delaying openings after severe winter weather would allow time for better snow or ice removal, and including "fall risk" in winter weather advisories might effectively warn morning commuters. Both strategies could help reduce the number of weather-related fall injuries.

Climate, Santa Ana Winds and Autumn Wildfires in Southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westerling, Anthony L.; Cayan, Daniel R.; Brown, Timothy J.; Hall, Beth L.; Riddle, Laurence G.

2004-08-01

Wildfires periodically burn large areas of chaparral and adjacent woodlands in autumn and winter in southern California. These fires often occur in conjunction with Santa Ana weather events, which combine high winds and low humidity, and tend to follow a wet winter rainy season. Because conditions fostering large fall and winter wildfires in California are the result of large-scale patterns in atmospheric circulation, the same dangerous conditions are likely to occur over a wide area at the same time. Furthermore, over a century of watershed reserve management and fire suppression have promoted fuel accumulations, helping to shape one of the most conflagration-prone environments in the world. Combined with a complex topography and a large human population, southern Californian ecology and climate pose a considerable physical and societal challenge to fire management.

Extreme weather-year sequences have nonadditive effects on environmental nitrogen losses.

PubMed

Iqbal, Javed; Necpalova, Magdalena; Archontoulis, Sotirios V; Anex, Robert P; Bourguignon, Marie; Herzmann, Daryl; Mitchell, David C; Sawyer, John E; Zhu, Qing; Castellano, Michael J

2018-01-01

The frequency and intensity of extreme weather years, characterized by abnormal precipitation and temperature, are increasing. In isolation, these years have disproportionately large effects on environmental N losses. However, the sequence of extreme weather years (e.g., wet-dry vs. dry-wet) may affect cumulative N losses. We calibrated and validated the DAYCENT ecosystem process model with a comprehensive set of biogeophysical measurements from a corn-soybean rotation managed at three N fertilizer inputs with and without a winter cover crop in Iowa, USA. Our objectives were to determine: (i) how 2-year sequences of extreme weather affect 2-year cumulative N losses across the crop rotation, and (ii) if N fertilizer management and the inclusion of a winter cover crop between corn and soybean mitigate the effect of extreme weather on N losses. Using historical weather (1951-2013), we created nine 2-year scenarios with all possible combinations of the driest ("dry"), wettest ("wet"), and average ("normal") weather years. We analyzed the effects of these scenarios following several consecutive years of relatively normal weather. Compared with the normal-normal 2-year weather scenario, 2-year extreme weather scenarios affected 2-year cumulative NO 3 - leaching (range: -93 to +290%) more than N 2 O emissions (range: -49 to +18%). The 2-year weather scenarios had nonadditive effects on N losses: compared with the normal-normal scenario, the dry-wet sequence decreased 2-year cumulative N 2 O emissions while the wet-dry sequence increased 2-year cumulative N 2 O emissions. Although dry weather decreased NO 3 - leaching and N 2 O emissions in isolation, 2-year cumulative N losses from the wet-dry scenario were greater than the dry-wet scenario. Cover crops reduced the effects of extreme weather on NO 3 - leaching but had a lesser effect on N 2 O emissions. As the frequency of extreme weather is expected to increase, these data suggest that the sequence of interannual weather patterns can be used to develop short-term mitigation strategies that manipulate N fertilizer and crop rotation to maximize crop N uptake while reducing environmental N losses. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessment of weather-associated causes of red spruce winter injury and consequences to aboveground carbon sequestration

Treesearch

Paul G. Schaberg; Brynne E. Lazarus; Gary J. Hawley; Joshua M. Halman; Catherine H. Borer; Christopher F. Hansen

2011-01-01

Despite considerable study, it remains uncertain what environmental factors contribute to red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) foliar winter injury and how much this injury influences tree C stores. We used a long-term record of winter injury in a plantation in New Hampshire and conducted stepwise linear regression analyses with local weather and regional...

Model Analyses and Guidance

Science.gov Websites

Fire Weather Sun/Moon Long Range Forecasts Climate Prediction Past Weather Past Weather Heating/Cooling Space Weather Sun (Ultraviolet Radiation) Safety Campaigns Wind Drought Winter Weather Information

A possible cause of the AO polarity reversal from winter to summer in 2010 and its relation to hemispheric extreme summer weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otomi, Y.; Tachibana, Y.; Nakamura, T.

2012-12-01

In 2010, the Northern Hemisphere, in particular Russia, Europe and Japan, experienced an abnormally hot summer characterized by record-breaking warm temperatures and associated with a strongly positive Arctic Oscillation (AO). In contrast, in winter 2009/2010, the continent suffered from anomalously cold weather associated with a record-breaking negative AO. The winter-to-summer of the AO index during 2009/2010 evolved as follows: a strongly negative wintertime AO index continued until May, after which it abruptly changed, becoming strongly positive in July and continuing so until the beginning of August. The abrupt change of the AO index from strongly negative to strongly positive in 2010 thus corresponded to the change from the abnormally cold winter of 2009/2010 to the abnormally hot summer of 2010, which shows that the AO index is a good indicator of abnormal weather on a planetary-scale, and that extra-seasonal prediction of the AO is a key to long-term forecasting. In this study, we therefore aimed to examine the cause of the 2010 change in the AO index from strongly negative to strongly positive. We suggest that an oceanic memory of the strongly negative wintertime AO may have influenced the strongly positive summertime AO. The winter sea surface temperatures (SST) in the North Atlantic Ocean showed a tripolar anomaly pattern which is warm SST anomalies over the tropics and high latitudes and cold SST anomalies over the midlatitudes. The strongly negative wintertime AO would cause the warm SST anomaly in this region. The warm SST anomalies continued into summer 2010 because of the large oceanic heat capacity. In May and June, the heat flux anomaly changed from downward to upward in the tropics, and in July and August, the center of the upward anomaly moved westward. The area of the upward heat flux anomaly coincided with the area of the warm SST anomaly from May to August. The numerical model experiment showed that the tripolar SST pattern resulted in an anomalous height and wind pattern that caused a blocking high over Europe. The observed wave activity flux also seems to emanate from Europe. This midlatitude atmospheric response implies that strengthening of the positive geopotential anomalies over Europe was associated with the Atlantic tripolar SST anomaly. The positive geopotential anomaly in the area of the polar jet stream caused eastward propagation of Rossby waves, and the exceeding amplification of Rossby waves might have led to the formation of blocking anticyclones. As a consequence of these interactions, the positive AO pressure pattern can continue for a long time. Thus, a possible cause of the AO polarity reversal might be the "memory" of the negative winter AO in the North Atlantic Ocean, suggesting an interseasonal linkage of the AO in which the oceanic memory of a wintertime negative AO induces a positive AO in the following summer. Understanding of this interseasonal linkage may aid in the long-term prediction of such abnormal summer events. If this reversal pattern recurs, it might be possible to predict the summertime AO from the wintertime AO. Main parts of this study were published in Climatic Dynamics by Otomi et al, (2012).

Deacclimation may be crucial for winter survival of cereals under warming climate.

PubMed

Rapacz, Marcin; Jurczyk, Barbara; Sasal, Monika

2017-03-01

Climate warming can change the winter weather patterns. Warmer temperatures during winter result in a lower risk of extreme freezing events. On the other hand the predicted warm gaps during winter will decrease their freezing tolerance. Both contradict effects will affect winter survival but their resultant effect is unclear. In this paper, we demonstrate that climate warming may result in a decrease in winter survival of plants. A field study of winterhardiness of common wheat and triticale was established at 11 locations and repeated during three subsequent winters. The freezing tolerance of the plants was studied after controlled cold acclimation and de-acclimation using both plant survival analysis and chlorophyll fluorescence measurements. Cold deacclimation resistance was shown to be independent from cold acclimation ability. Further, cold deacclimation resistance appeared to be crucial for overwintering when deacclimation conditions occurred in the field. The shortening of uninterrupted cold acclimation may increase cold deacclimation efficiency, which could threaten plant survival during warmer winters. Measurements of chlorophyll fluorescence transient showed some differences triggered by freezing before and after deacclimation. We conclude that cold deacclimation resistance should be considered in the breeding of winter cereals and in future models of winter damage risk. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Large-Scale Antecedent Conditions Associated with 2014-2015 Winter Onset over North America and mid-Winter Storminess Along the North Atlantic Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bosart, L. F.; Papin, P. P.; Bentley, A. M.; Benjamin, M.; Winters, A. C.

2015-12-01

Winter 2014-2015 was marked by the coldest November weather in 35 years east of the Rockies and record-breaking snowstorms and cold from the eastern Great Lakes to Atlantic Canada in January and February 2015. Record-breaking warmth prevailed across the Intermountain West and Rockies beneath a persistent upper-level ridge. Winter began with a series of arctic air mass surges that culminated in an epic lake-effect snowstorm occurred over western New York before Thanksgiving and was followed by a series of snow and ice storms that disrupted Thanksgiving holiday travel widely. Winter briefly abated in part of December, but returned with a vengeance between mid-January and mid-February 2015 when multiple extreme weather events that featured record-breaking monthly and seasonal snowfalls and record-breaking daily minimum temperatures were observed. This presentation will show how: (1) the recurvature and extratropical transition (ET) of Supertyphoon (STY) Nuri in the western Pacific in early November 2014, and its subsequent explosive reintensification as an extratropical cyclone (EC), disrupted the North Pacific jet stream and downstream Northern Hemisphere (NH) circulation, produced high-latitude ridging and the formation of an omega block over western North America, triggered downstream baroclinic development and the formation of a deep trough over eastern North America, and ushered in winter 2014-2015, (2) the ET/EC of STY Nuri increased subsequent week two predictability over the North Pacific and North America in association with diabatically influenced high-latitude ridge building, and (3) the amplification of the large-scale NH flow pattern beginning in January 2015 resulted in the formation of persistent high-amplitude ridges over northeastern Russia, Alaska, western North America, and the North Atlantic while deep troughs formed over the eastern North Pacific and eastern North America. This persistent amplified flow pattern supported the occurrence of frequent heavy snowstorms, including blizzards, over parts of the northeastern United States and adjacent Atlantic Canada during the latter part of January and much of February 2015.

North Atlantic weather regimes: A synoptic study of phase space. M.S. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orrhede, Anna Karin

1990-01-01

In the phase space of weather, low frequency variability (LFV) of the atmosphere can be captured in a large scale subspace, where a trajectory connects consecutive large scale weather maps, thus revealing flow changes and recurrences. Using this approach, Vautard applied the trajectory speed minimization method (Vautard and Legras) to atmospheric data. From 37 winters of 700 mb geopotential height anomalies over the North Atlantic and the adjacent land masses, four persistent and recurrent weather patterns, interpreted as weather regimes, were discernable: a blocking regime, a zonal regime, a Greenland anticyclone regime, and an Atlantic regime. These regimes are studied further in terms of maintenance and transitions. A regime survey unveils preferences regarding event durations and precursors for the onset or break of an event. The transition frequencies between regimes vary, and together with the transition times, suggest the existence of easier transition routes. These matters are more systematically studied using complete synoptic map sequences from a number of events.

Travel in adverse winter weather conditions by blind pedestrians.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-08-31

Winter weather creates many orientation and mobility (O&M) challenges for people who are visually impaired. Getting the cane tip stuck is one of the noticeable challenges when traveling in snow, particularly when the walking surface is covered in dee...

CO2 Jets and Wind Patterns on Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hatcher, Chase; Aye, K.-Michael; Portyankina, Ganna

2017-10-01

In Martian winters, the poles get covered by a layer of transparent CO2 ice. In spring, sunlight causes substrate under the ice to heat up which sublimates CO2 under the ice. The accumulating gas eventually causes the ice above it to rupture and the CO2 and substrate mixture spews out like a geyser and settles back down on the surface. The shape, size, and alignment of the deposits on the surface as viewed by the HiRISE camera are related to physical processes like sublimation, weather, and wind on Mars. The jet deposits are identified by citizen scientists on a website called Planet Four. Users are shown sections of HiRISE images and asked to mark different surface features with different tools. The markings are averaged, filtered, and sorted to ensure that the data accurately represents the images. By analyzing trends in the change of different characteristics of these surface features over time, we conclude that different regions on Mars have different sublimation processes and different wind patterns. We also conclude that wind and weather patterns generally repeat from year to year, and that sediment deposits affect local weather as well.

Assessment and recommendations for using high-resolution weather information to improve winter maintenance operations.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-11-01

A variety of methods for obtaining detailed analyses regarding the timing and duration of winter weather across the state of Indiana for : multiple seasons were compared and evaluated during this project. Meteorological information from sources such ...

Improved forecasts of winter weather extremes over midlatitudes with extra Arctic observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sato, Kazutoshi; Inoue, Jun; Yamazaki, Akira; Kim, Joo-Hong; Maturilli, Marion; Dethloff, Klaus; Hudson, Stephen R.; Granskog, Mats A.

2017-02-01

Recent cold winter extremes over Eurasia and North America have been considered to be a consequence of a warming Arctic. More accurate weather forecasts are required to reduce human and socioeconomic damages associated with severe winters. However, the sparse observing network over the Arctic brings errors in initializing a weather prediction model, which might impact accuracy of prediction results at midlatitudes. Here we show that additional Arctic radiosonde observations from the Norwegian young sea ICE expedition (N-ICE2015) drifting ice camps and existing land stations during winter improved forecast skill and reduced uncertainties of weather extremes at midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. For two winter storms over East Asia and North America in February 2015, ensemble forecast experiments were performed with initial conditions taken from an ensemble atmospheric reanalysis in which the observation data were assimilated. The observations reduced errors in initial conditions in the upper troposphere over the Arctic region, yielding more precise prediction of the locations and strengths of upper troughs and surface synoptic disturbances. Errors and uncertainties of predicted upper troughs at midlatitudes would be brought with upper level high potential vorticity (PV) intruding southward from the observed Arctic region. This is because the PV contained a "signal" of the additional Arctic observations as it moved along an isentropic surface. This suggests that a coordinated sustainable Arctic observing network would be effective not only for regional weather services but also for reducing weather risks in locations distant from the Arctic.

Forecasting Winter Storms in the Sierra: A Social Science Perspective in Keeping the Public Safe without Negatively Impacting the Local Tourism Industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milne, R.; Wallmann, J.; Myrick, D. T.

2010-12-01

The National Weather Service Office in Reno is responsible for issuing Blizzard Warnings, Winter Storm Warnings, and Winter Weather Advisories for the Sierra, including the Lake Tahoe Basin and heavily traveled routes such as Interstate 80, Highway 395 and Highway 50. These forecast products prepare motorists for harsh travel conditions as well as those venturing into the backcountry, which are essential to the NWS mission of saving lives and property. During the winter season, millions of people from around the world visit the numerous world class ski resorts in the Sierra and the Lake Tahoe Basin, which is vital to the local economy. This situation creates a challenging decision for the forecasters to provide appropriate wording in winter statements to keep the public safe, without significantly impacting the local tourism-based economy. Numerous text and graphical products, including online weather briefings, are utilized by NWS Reno to highlight hazards in ensuring the public, businesses, and other government agencies are prepared for winter storms and take appropriate safety measures. The effectiveness of these product types will be explored, with past snowstorms used as examples to show how forecasters determine which type of text or graphical product is most appropriate to convey the hazardous weather threats.

The influence of synoptic weather regimes on UK air quality: regional model studies of tropospheric column NO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pope, R. J.; Savage, N. H.; Chipperfield, M. P.; Ordóñez, C.; Neal, L. S.

2015-07-01

Synoptic meteorology can have a significant influence on UK air quality. Cyclonic (anticyclonic) conditions lead to the dispersion (accumulation) of air pollutants away from (over) source regions. Meteorology also modifies atmospheric chemistry processes such as photolysis and wet deposition. Previous studies have shown a relationship between observed satellite tropospheric column NO2 and synoptic meteorology in different seasons. Here, we test whether the UK Met Office Air Quality in the Unified Model (AQUM) can reproduce these observations and then use the model to determine the controlling factors. We show that AQUM successfully captures the observed relationships, when sampled under the Lamb Weather Types, an objective classification of midday UK circulation patterns. By using a range of idealised NOx-like tracers with different e-folding lifetimes, we show that under different synoptic regimes the NO2 lifetime in AQUM is approximately 6 h in summer and 12 h in winter. The longer lifetime can explain why synoptic spatial column NO2 variations are more significant in winter compared to summer, due to less NO2 photochemical loss. We also show that cyclonic conditions have more seasonality in column NO2 than anticyclonic conditions as they result in more extreme spatial departures from the wintertime seasonal average. Within a season (summer or winter) under different synoptic regimes, a large proportion of the spatial pattern in the UK column NO2 field can be explained by the idealised model tracers, showing that transport is an important factor in governing the variability of UK air quality on seasonal synoptic timescales.

The message, meteorology and myths of the historic West Coast winter flooding of 1861 - 62

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schick, L. J.

2012-12-01

The greatest known recorded flooding, ever to impact the West Coast of the United States, occurred during the winter of 1861-1862. In fact, the extraordinary flood flows on five major rivers, remain the record peaks to this day. The flooding was caused by a series of Pacific mid-latitude cyclones and several strong atmospheric rivers. The extreme rainy pattern initially strikes Oregon. The high water causes the flood of record on the Willamette River, with extensive devastation, wiping out several major towns along the river. Communications, food and supplies were cut off for much of the winter in Oregon.The intense wet weather, then redevelops, moves south and stalls - pummeling Northern California with major flooding. The runoff fills California's Central Valley with a huge inland lake. Sacramento is submerged, turned into what was described as a "frontier Venice". Flood damages eliminate a large part of the state's tax base.Finally the stormy pattern shifts into Southern California, producing major flooding. Most of lowland Los Angeles, Orange and San Diego Counties are flooded under several feet of water for weeks.The author researched limited weather data, historical accounts, maps and ship reports to reconstruct this series of storms and their effects along the West Coast. The extent and evolution of this series of flood events is unprecedented. Myths regarding the causes of this flooding are common, but its sheer magnitude is undisputable. This presentation will also demonstrate the nature and impacts of these consecutive major flood events, while revealing the lessons to be learned in light of advances in modern forecasting techniques.

Translating weather extremes into the future - a case for Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sillmann, Jana; Mueller, Malte; Gjertsen, Uta; Haarsma, Rein; Hazeleger, Wilco; Amundsen, Helene

2017-04-01

We introduce a new project "Translating weather extremes into the future - a case for Norway" (TWEX - http://www.cicero.uio.no/en/twex). In TWEX, we take a novel "Tales of future weather" approach in which we use future scenarios tailored to a specific region and stakeholder in order to gain a more realistic picture of what future weather extremes might look like in a particular context. We focus on hydroclimatic extremes associated with a particular circulation pattern (so-called "Atmospheric River") leading to heavy rainfall in fall and winter along the West Coast of Norway and causing high-impact floods in Norwegian communities. We translate selected past events into the future (e.g., 2090) by using an approach very similar to what is used today for weather prediction. The data generated in TWEX will be distributed by standard (weather prediction) communication channels of the Norwegian Meteorological Institute and thus, will be accessible by end-user in a well-known data format for analyzing the impact of the events in the future and support decision-making on hazard prevention and adaptation planning.

Patterns of prey selection by wolves in Denali National Park, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mech, L. David; Meier, T.J.; Burch, John W.; Adams, Layne G.; Carbyn, Ludwig N.; Fritts, Steven H.; Seip, Dale R.

1995-01-01

The patterns of selection by wolves (Canis lupus) preying on moose (Alces alces), caribou (Rangifer tarandus), and Dall sheep (Ovis dalli) in Denali National Park and Preserve, Alaska were studied from 1986 through early 1992. Wolves and their prey are legally protected or relatively unharvested in most of the area, and wolf numbers doubled during the study. Based on remains of 294 moose, 225 caribou, and 63 sheep, wolves killed calves and old adults disproportionately, and individuals with low marrow fat, jaw necrosis, or arthritis. Seasonal trends in proportions of various species, ages, and sex of kills were found. During the winters following winters of deep snowfalls, wolves greatly increased the proportion of caribou cows and calves taken. We conclude that in a natural system, wolves can survive on vulnerable prey even during moderate weather, and when snowfall exceeds average, they can respond by switching to newly vulnerable prey and greatly increasing their numbers.

The hard winter of 1880-1881: Climatological context and communication via a Laura Ingalls Wilder narrative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boustead, Barbara E.

The Hard Winter of 1880-1881 was featured in the Laura Ingalls Wilder historical fiction account, The Long Winter, as well as in several town histories across the region. Both meteorological records and historical accounts indicate that the winter was particularly long, snowy, and cold. The question of how "hard" a winter is for a given location depends on the climatological context, which relies on an objective characterization of winter severity. The Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) allows comparison of the winter of 1880-1881 among sites across the region, as well as in the context of the period of record, to quantify its severity. Additionally, investigating the impacts of both the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the central United States provides context for the influence of both a strongly negative NAO and an El Nino event during the winter of 1880-1881. With an understanding of the climatological factors influencing the Hard Winter, along with the context for its severity, a more thorough analysis then was conducted to quantify and describe its severity. The connection of the winter of 1880-1881 to a popular book written by an author who is a cultural icon provides a natural vehicle with which to communicate weather and climate concepts to multiple non-technical audiences. The communication of complex weather and climate concepts is a well-documented challenge. One method to bridge between science concepts and public understanding is to relate those concepts to familiar subjects and stories, including Laura Ingalls Wilder's books. A narrative constructed around the books, particularly The Long Winter, provides a means of audience engagement and interest in weather- and climate-related topics, which was at least partially quantified by surveying audiences of the narrative. Overall, the scientific background, combined with a familiar narrative voice, provides a means to transmit weather and climate.

Effects of sudden air pressure changes on hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases in Prague

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kysely, Jan; Plavcova, Eva

2013-04-01

Sudden weather changes have long been supposed to be associated with negative impacts on human health. However, relatively few studies attempted to quantify these relationships. In this study, we use large 6-hour changes of atmospheric sea level pressure as proxy for sudden weather changes, and evaluate their association with hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases. Winter and summer seasons and positive and negative pressure changes are analyzed separately, using data for the city of Prague (population of 1.2 million) over 16-year period (1994-2009). We find that sudden pressure drops in winter are associated with significant increases in the number of hospital admissions. Increases in morbidity are not observed for pressure drops in summer, nor pressure increases in any season. Analysis of synoptic weather maps shows that the large pressure drops in winter are associated with strong zonal (westerly) flow and rapidly moving low pressure systems with centres over Northern Europe and atmospheric fronts affecting the area of Western and Central Europe. Several of the largest pressure decreases were associated with infamous winter storms (such as Lothar on December 25, 1999 and Kyrill on January 18, 2007). Analysis of links between passages of strong atmospheric fronts and hospital admissions shows that the links are much weaker if weather changes are characterized by frontal passages. Since climate models project strengthening of the zonal circulation in winter and increased frequency of winter storms, the negative effects of such weather phenomena and their possible changes in a warmer climate of the 21st century need to be better understood, particularly as their importance in inducing excess morbidity and mortality in winter may increase compared to cold spells.

A climate model diagnostic metric for the Madden-Julian oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez, A. O.; Jiang, X.

2016-12-01

Despite its significant impacts on global weather and climate, the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) remains a grand challenge for state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCMs). The eastward propagation of the MJO is often poorly simulated in GCMs, represented by a stationary or even westward propagating mode. Recent analyses based on moist static energy processes suggest the horizontal advection of the winter mean moist static energy by the MJO circulation plays a critical role in the observed eastward propagation of the MJO. In this study, we explore relationships between model fidelity in representing the eastward propagation of the MJO and the winter mean lower-tropospheric moisture pattern by analyzing a suite of GCMs from a recent multi-model MJO comparison project. Model capability of reproducing the observed spatial pattern of the 650-900 hPa winter mean specific humidity is a robust indicator of how well they reproduce the MJO's eastward propagation. In particular, model skill in simulating the low-level winter mean specific humidity over the Maritime Continent region (20°S-20°N, 90°-135°E) is highly correlated with model skill of MJO propagation across the 23 GCMs analyzed, with a correlation of about 0.8. Winter mean lower-tropospheric moisture patterns over two other regions, including the western Indian Ocean and an off-equatorial region in the central Indian Ocean, also exhibit high correlations with MJO propagation skill in the model simulations. This study supports recent studies in highlighting the importance of the mean low-level moisture for MJO propagation and it points out a direction for model improvement of the MJO. Meanwhile, it is also suggested that the winter mean low-level moisture pattern over the Indo-Pacific region, particularly over the Maritime Continent region, can serve as a diagnostic metric for the eastward propagation of the MJO in climate model assessments.

Influence of finite-time Lyapunov exponents on winter precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garaboa-Paz, Daniel; Lorenzo, Nieves; Pérez-Muñuzuri, Vicente

2017-05-01

Seasonal forecasts have improved during the last decades, mostly due to an increase in understanding of the coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics, and the development of models able to predict the atmosphere variability. Correlations between different teleconnection patterns and severe weather in different parts of the world are constantly evolving and changing. This paper evaluates the connection between winter precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula and the large-scale tropospheric mixing over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Finite-time Lyapunov exponents (FTLEs) have been calculated from 1979 to 2008 to evaluate this mixing. Our study suggests that significant negative correlations exist between summer FTLE anomalies and winter precipitation over Portugal and Spain. To understand the mechanisms behind this correlation, summer anomalies of the FTLE have also been correlated with other climatic variables such as the sea surface temperature (SST), the sea level pressure (SLP) or the geopotential. The East Atlantic (EA) teleconnection index correlates with the summer FTLE anomalies, confirming their role as a seasonal predictor for winter precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula.

El Niño and its impact on fire weather conditions in Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hess, Jason C.; Scott, Carven A.; Hufford, Gary L.; Fleming, Michael D.

2001-01-01

Examining the relationship of El Niño to weather patterns in Alaska shows wide climate variances that depend on the teleconnection between the tropics and the northern latitudes. However, the weather patterns exhibited in Alaska during and just after moderate to strong El Niño episodes are generally consistent: above normal temperature and precipitation along the Alaskan coast, and above normal temperature and below normal precipitation in the interior, especially through the winter. The warm, dry conditions in the Alaskan interior increase summer wildfire potential. Statistics on the area burned since 1940 show that 15 out of 17 of the biggest fire years occurred during a moderate to strong El Niño episode. These 15 years account for nearly 63% of the total area burned over the last 58 years. Evidence points to increased dry thunderstorms and associated lightning activity during an El Niño episode; the percentage of total area burned by lightning caused fires during five episodes increased from a normal of less than 40% to a high of about 96%.

European temperature responses to blocking and ridge regional patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sousa, Pedro M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Barriopedro, David; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Santos, João A.

2018-01-01

Blocking occurrence and its impacts on European temperature have been studied in the last decade. However, most previous studies on blocking impacts have focused on winter only, disregarding its fingerprint in summer and differences with other synoptic patterns that also trigger temperature extremes. In this work, we provide a clear distinction between high-latitude blocking and sub-tropical ridges occurring in three sectors of the Euro-Atlantic region, describing their climatology and consequent impacts on European temperature during both winter and summer. Winter blocks (ridges) are generally associated to colder (warmer) than average conditions over large regions of Europe, in some areas with anomalies larger than 5 °C, particularly for the patterns occurring in the Atlantic and Central European sectors. During summer, there is a more regional response characterized by above average temperature for both blocking and ridge patterns, especially those occurring in continental areas, although negative temperature anomalies persist in southernmost areas during blocking. An objective analysis of the different forcing mechanisms associated to each considered weather regime has been performed, quantifying the importance of the following processes in causing the temperature anomalies: horizontal advection, vertical advection and diabatic heating. While during winter advection processes tend to be more relevant to explain temperature responses, in summer radiative heating under enhanced insolation plays a crucial role for both blocking and ridges. Finally, the changes in the distributions of seasonal temperature and in the frequencies of extreme temperature indices were also examined for specific areas of Europe. Winter blocking and ridge patterns are key drivers in the occurrence of regional cold and warm extreme temperatures, respectively. In summer, they are associated with substantial changes in the frequency of extremely warm days, but with different signatures in southern Europe. We conclude that there has been some misusage of the traditional blocking definition in the attribution of extreme events.

Effects of sudden air pressure changes on hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases in Prague, 1994-2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plavcová, Eva; Kyselý, Jan

2014-08-01

Sudden weather changes have long been thought to be associated with negative impacts on human health, but relatively few studies have attempted to quantify these relationships. We use large 6-h changes in atmospheric pressure as a proxy for sudden weather changes and evaluate their association with hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Winter and summer seasons and positive and negative pressure changes are analysed separately, using data for the city of Prague (population 1.2 million) over a 16-year period (1994-2009). We found that sudden pressure drops in winter are associated with significant rise in hospital admissions. Increased CVD morbidity was observed neither for pressure drops in summer nor pressure increases in any season. Analysis of synoptic weather maps shows that large pressure drops in winter are associated with strong zonal flow and rapidly moving low-pressure systems with centres over northern Europe and atmospheric fronts affecting western and central Europe. Analysis of links between passages of strong atmospheric fronts and hospital admissions, however, shows that the links disappear if weather changes are characterised by frontal passages. Sudden pressure drops in winter are associated also with significant excess CVD mortality. As climate models project strengthening of zonal circulation in winter and increased frequency of windstorms, the negative effects of such weather phenomena and their possible changes in a warmer climate of the twenty-first century need to be better understood, particularly as their importance in inducing excess morbidity and mortality in winter may increase compared to cold spells.

[The biotropic weather conditions and changing the clocks as the extraneous risk factors of weather-dependent exacerbations of chronic diseases].

PubMed

Bobrovnitskiĭ, I P; Badalov, N G; Uianaeva, A I; Tupitsina, Iu Iu; Iakovlev, M Iu; Maksimova, G A

2014-01-01

This paper reports the results of medico-meteorological investigations suggesting the influence of biotropic (unfavourabe) weather conditions characteristic of transient seasons in combination with the abolition of on the frequency of application for emergency medical aid. It was shown that the abolition of during the period from 2009 to 2013 resulted in a significant rise in the frequency of application for the emergency treatment of exacerbation of cardiovascular diseases. The sociological studies involving the responders of various social and age groups carried out parallel to the medical ones demonstrated that most of them (77%) considered the abolition of to be the main cause of the deteriorated of the sense of wellbeing and emphasized the necessity of winter time reversal.

Changing food patterns across the seasons in rural Pakistan: analysis of food variety, dietary diversity and calorie intake.

PubMed

Hussain, Abid; Zulfiqar, Farhad; Saboor, Abdul

2014-01-01

This comparative study investigated variations in food patterns across the seasons in rural Pakistan through assessing the changes in food variety, dietary diversity and calorie intake. It analyzed the situation using the primary information of 97 and 114 households surveyed in summer and winter respectively. Findings revealed a significant difference of households' food variety, dietary diversity and calorie intake across the seasons. In the winter, households' food basket was more diverse, showing 30%, 13%, and 8% rise in food variety, dietary diversity, and caloric intake, respectively, due mainly to the changes in food choices in winter. Rural households preferred to consume items from nutritious food groups (i.e., dried fruits and nuts, oilseeds, and locally preserved foods) during the severe cold weather. However, they did not substitute significantly the items from basic food groups (i.e., cereals, vegetables and legumes, tubers, and dairy products), with those belonging to nutritious groups. Based on findings, it is concluded that food variety, dietary diversity and calorie intake fluctuate across the seasons, therefore surveys of dietary patterns and calorie intake in one particular season may not be reliable, and food security status of households may not be generalized on the basis of one season survey.

Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10): a World Weather Research Programme Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isaac, G. A.; Joe, P. I.; Mailhot, J.; Bailey, M.; Bélair, S.; Boudala, F. S.; Brugman, M.; Campos, E.; Carpenter, R. L.; Crawford, R. W.; Cober, S. G.; Denis, B.; Doyle, C.; Reeves, H. D.; Gultepe, I.; Haiden, T.; Heckman, I.; Huang, L. X.; Milbrandt, J. A.; Mo, R.; Rasmussen, R. M.; Smith, T.; Stewart, R. E.; Wang, D.; Wilson, L. J.

2014-01-01

A World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) project entitled the Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10) was developed to be associated with the Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games conducted between 12 February and 21 March 2010. The SNOW-V10 international team augmented the instrumentation associated with the Winter Games and several new numerical weather forecasting and nowcasting models were added. Both the additional observational and model data were available to the forecasters in real time. This was an excellent opportunity to demonstrate existing capability in nowcasting and to develop better techniques for short term (0-6 h) nowcasts of winter weather in complex terrain. Better techniques to forecast visibility, low cloud, wind gusts, precipitation rate and type were evaluated. The weather during the games was exceptionally variable with many periods of low visibility, low ceilings and precipitation in the form of both snow and rain. The data collected should improve our understanding of many physical phenomena such as the diabatic effects due to melting snow, wind flow around and over terrain, diurnal flow reversal in valleys associated with daytime heating, and precipitation reductions and increases due to local terrain. Many studies related to these phenomena are described in the Special Issue on SNOW-V10 for which this paper was written. Numerical weather prediction and nowcast models have been evaluated against the unique observational data set now available. It is anticipated that the data set and the knowledge learned as a result of SNOW-V10 will become a resource for other World Meteorological Organization member states who are interested in improving forecasts of winter weather.

Extreme cyclone events in the Arctic during wintertime: Variability and Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rinke, Annette; Maturilli, Marion; Graham, Robert; Matthes, Heidrun; Handorf, Doerthe; Cohen, Lana; Hudson, Stephen; Moore, John

2017-04-01

Extreme cyclone events are of significant interest as they can transport much heat, moisture, and momentum poleward. Associated impacts are warming and sea-ice breakup. Recently, several examples of such extreme weather events occurred in winter (e.g. during the N-ICE2015 campaign north of Svalbard and the Frank North Atlantic storm during the end of December 2015). With Arctic amplification and associated reduced sea-ice cover and warmer sea surface temperatures, the occurrence of extreme cyclones events could be a plausible scenario. We calculate the spatial patterns, and changes and trends of the number of extreme cyclone events in the Arctic based on ERA-Interim six-hourly sea level pressure (SLP) data for winter (November-February) 1979-2015. Further, we analyze the SLP data from the Ny Alesund station for the same 37 year period. We define an extreme cyclone event by a extreme low central pressure (SLP below 985 hPa, which is the 5th percentile of the Ny Alesund/N-ICE2015 SLP data) and a deepening of at least 6 hPa/6 hours. Areas of highest frequency of occurrence of extreme cyclones are south/southeast of Greenland (corresponding to the Islandic low), between Norway and Svalbard and in the Barents/Kara Seas. The time series of the number of occurrence of extreme cyclone events for Ny Alesund/N-ICE show considerable interannual variability. The trend is not consistent through the winter, but we detect an increase in early winter and a slight decrease in late winter. The former is due to the increased occurrence of longer events at the expense of short events. Furthermore, the difference patterns of the frequency of events for months following the September with high and low Arctic sea-ice extent ("Low minus high sea ice") conforms with the change patterns of extreme cyclones numbers (frequency of events "2000-2015 minus 1979-1994") and with the trend patterns. This indicates that the changes in extreme cyclone occurrence in early winter are associated with sea-ice changes (regional feedback). In contrast, different mechanisms via large-scale circulation changes/teleconnections seem to play a role in late winter.

Analysis of winter weather conditions and their potential impact on wind farm operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novakovskaia, E.; Treinish, L. A.; Praino, A.

2009-12-01

Severe weather conditions have two primary impacts on wind farm operations. The first relates to understanding potential damage to the turbines themselves and what actions are required to mitigate the effects. The second is recognizing what conditions may lead to a full or partial shutdown of the wind farm with sufficient lead time to determine the likely inability to meet energy generation committments. Ideally, wind forecasting suitable for wind farm operations should be of sufficient fidelity to resolve features within the boundary layer that lead to either damaging conditions or useful power generation. Given the complexity of the site-specific factors that effect the boundary layer at the scale of typical land-based wind farm locations such as topography, vegetation, land use, soil conditions, etc., which may vary with turbine design and layout within the farm, enabling reliable forecasts of too little or too much wind is challenging. A potential solution should involve continuous updates of alert triggering criteria through analysis of local wind patterns and probabilistic risk assessment for each location. To evaluate this idea, we utilize our operational mesoscale prediction system, dubbed “Deep Thunder”, developed at the IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center. In particular, we analyze winter-time near-surface winds in upstate New York, where four similar winds farms are located. Each of these farms were built at roughly the same time and utilize similar turbines. Given the relative uncertainty associated with numerical weather prediction at this scale, and the difference in risk assessment due to the two primary impacts of severe weather, probabilistic forecasts are a prerequisite. Hence, we have employed ensembles of weather scenarios, which are based on the NCAR WRF-ARW modelling system. The set of ensemble members was composed with variations in the choices of physics and parameterization schemes, and source of background fields for initial conditions with horizontal grid resolutions in the one to two km range. In addition, the vertical grid structure was defined to ensure at least ten levels within the boundary layer and two from the bottom to the top of the turbine. This approach enables us to estimate the variability of winds at the farms and how it is distributed over the region. Further, we analyze the potential differences in structural risks at these farms during the 2009 winter season, and whether such differences in wind and weather patterns should be considered in choice of turbine design, installation and operations. We believe that this methodology can be extended to provide an estimate for mean annual energy production at a wind farm with the potential to improve the quality of siting and layout.

The influence of synoptic weather regimes on UK air quality: regional model studies of tropospheric column NO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pope, R. J.; Savage, N. H.; Chipperfield, M. P.; Ordóñez, C.; Neal, L. S.

2015-10-01

Synoptic meteorology can have a significant influence on UK air quality. Cyclonic conditions lead to the dispersion of air pollutants away from source regions, while anticyclonic conditions lead to their accumulation over source regions. Meteorology also modifies atmospheric chemistry processes such as photolysis and wet deposition. Previous studies have shown a relationship between observed satellite tropospheric column NO2 and synoptic meteorology in different seasons. Here, we test whether the UK Met Office Air Quality in the Unified Model (AQUM) can reproduce these observations and then use the model to explore the relative importance of various factors. We show that AQUM successfully captures the observed relationships when sampled under the Lamb weather types, an objective classification of midday UK circulation patterns. By using a range of idealized NOx-like tracers with different e-folding lifetimes, we show that under different synoptic regimes the NO2 lifetime in AQUM is approximately 6 h in summer and 12 h in winter. The longer lifetime can explain why synoptic spatial tropospheric column NO2 variations are more significant in winter compared to summer, due to less NO2 photochemical loss. We also show that cyclonic conditions have more seasonality in tropospheric column NO2 than anticyclonic conditions as they result in more extreme spatial departures from the wintertime seasonal average. Within a season (summer or winter) under different synoptic regimes, a large proportion of the spatial pattern in the UK tropospheric column NO2 field can be explained by the idealized model tracers, showing that transport is an important factor in governing the variability of UK air quality on seasonal synoptic timescales.

Cold-Weather Sports

MedlinePlus

... Videos for Educators Search English Español Cold-Weather Sports KidsHealth / For Teens / Cold-Weather Sports What's in this article? What to Do? Classes ... weather. What better time to be outdoors? Winter sports can help you burn calories, increase your cardiovascular ...

Modelling the economic losses of historic and present-day high-impact winter storms in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welker, Christoph; Stucki, Peter; Bresch, David; Dierer, Silke; Martius, Olivia; Brönnimann, Stefan

2014-05-01

Severe winter storms such as "Vivian" in February 1990 and "Lothar" in December 1999 are among the most destructive meteorological hazards in Switzerland. Disaster severity resulting from such windstorms is attributable, on the one hand, to hazardous weather conditions such as high wind gust speeds; and on the other hand to socio-economic factors such as population density, distribution of values at risk, and damage susceptibility. For present-day winter storms, the data basis is generally good to describe the meteorological development and wind forces as well as the associated socio-economic impacts. In contrast, the information on historic windstorms is overall sparse and the available historic weather and loss reports mostly do not provide quantitative information. This study illustrates a promising technique to simulate the economic impacts of both historic and present winter storms in Switzerland since end of the 19th century. Our approach makes use of the novel Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) spanning 1871-present. The 2-degree spatial resolution of the global 20CR dataset is relatively coarse. Thus, the complex orography of Switzerland is not realistically represented, which has considerable ramifications for the representation of wind systems that are strongly influenced by the local orography, such as Föhn winds. Therefore, a dynamical downscaling of the 20CR to 3 km resolution using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was performed, for in total 40 high-impact winter storms in Switzerland since 1871. Based on the downscaled wind gust speeds and the climada loss model, the estimated economic losses were calculated at municipality level for current economic and social conditions. With this approach, we find an answer to the question what would be the economic losses of e.g. a hazardous Föhn storm - which occurred in northern Switzerland in February 1925 - today, i.e. under current socio-economic conditions. Encouragingly, the pattern of simulated losses for this specific storm is very similar to historic loss reports. A comparison of wind gust speeds with simulated storm losses for all highly damaging winter storms in Switzerland since the late 19th century considered in this study shows that storm losses have been related primarily to population density (and distribution of values at risk, respectively) rather than hazardous wind speed.

National Weather Service

MedlinePlus

... Data SAFETY Floods Tsunami Beach Hazards Wildfire Cold Tornadoes Fog Air Quality Heat Hurricanes Lightning Safe Boating ... Winter Weather Forecasts River Flooding Latest Warnings Thunderstorm/Tornado Outlook Hurricanes Fire Weather Outlooks UV Alerts Drought ...

Towards understanding temporal and spatial dynamics of Bactrocera oleae (Rossi) infestations using decade-long agrometeorological time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marchi, Susanna; Guidotti, Diego; Ricciolini, Massimo; Petacchi, Ruggero

2016-11-01

Insect dynamics depend on temperature patterns, and therefore, global warming may lead to increasing frequencies and intensities of insect outbreaks. The aim of this work was to analyze the dynamics of the olive fruit fly, Bactrocera oleae (Rossi), in Tuscany (Italy). We profited from long-term records of insect infestation and weather data available from the regional database and agrometeorological network. We tested whether the analysis of 13 years of monitoring campaigns can be used as basis for prediction models of B. oleae infestation. We related the percentage of infestation observed in the first part of the host-pest interaction and throughout the whole year to agrometeorological indices formulated for different time periods. A two-step approach was adopted to inspect the effect of weather on infestation: generalized linear model with a binomial error distribution and principal component regression to reduce the number of the agrometeorological factors and remove their collinearity. We found a consistent relationship between the degree of infestation and the temperature-based indices calculated for the previous period. The relationship was stronger with the minimum temperature of winter season. Higher infestation was observed in years following warmer winters. The temperature of the previous winter and spring explained 66 % of variance of early-season infestation. The temperature of previous winter and spring, and current summer, explained 72 % of variance of total annual infestation. These results highlight the importance of multiannual monitoring activity to fully understand the dynamics of B. oleae populations at a regional scale.

Towards understanding temporal and spatial dynamics of Bactrocera oleae (Rossi) infestations using decade-long agrometeorological time series.

PubMed

Marchi, Susanna; Guidotti, Diego; Ricciolini, Massimo; Petacchi, Ruggero

2016-11-01

Insect dynamics depend on temperature patterns, and therefore, global warming may lead to increasing frequencies and intensities of insect outbreaks. The aim of this work was to analyze the dynamics of the olive fruit fly, Bactrocera oleae (Rossi), in Tuscany (Italy). We profited from long-term records of insect infestation and weather data available from the regional database and agrometeorological network. We tested whether the analysis of 13 years of monitoring campaigns can be used as basis for prediction models of B. oleae infestation. We related the percentage of infestation observed in the first part of the host-pest interaction and throughout the whole year to agrometeorological indices formulated for different time periods. A two-step approach was adopted to inspect the effect of weather on infestation: generalized linear model with a binomial error distribution and principal component regression to reduce the number of the agrometeorological factors and remove their collinearity. We found a consistent relationship between the degree of infestation and the temperature-based indices calculated for the previous period. The relationship was stronger with the minimum temperature of winter season. Higher infestation was observed in years following warmer winters. The temperature of the previous winter and spring explained 66 % of variance of early-season infestation. The temperature of previous winter and spring, and current summer, explained 72 % of variance of total annual infestation. These results highlight the importance of multiannual monitoring activity to fully understand the dynamics of B. oleae populations at a regional scale.

What caused the Extreme Storm Season over the North Atlantic and the UK in Winter 2013-14?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leckebusch, G. C.; Wild, S.; Befort, D. J.

2015-12-01

In winter 2013-2014, the UK experienced exceptional stormy and rainy weather conditions. Concurrently, surface temperatures over large parts of central North America fell to near record minimum values. One potential driver for these cold conditions is discussed to be the increasingly warm surface waters of the tropical west Pacific. It has been suggested these increasing sea surface temperatures could also be the cause for extreme weather over the British Isles. Testing this hypothesis, we investigate mechanisms linking the tropical west Pacific and European wind storm activity. We focus on two research questions. Firstly: Was a chain of anomaly patterns with origin in the west Pacific present in the winter 2013-14? And secondly: Can centres of action along such a chain be identified with a strong interannual relationship in the recent past? Our results, using primarily ERA-Interim Reanalysis from 1979 to 2014, show an absolute maximum of wind storm frequency over the northeast Atlantic and the British Isles in winter 2013-14. We also find absolute minimum surface temperatures in central North America and increased convective activity over the tropical west Pacific in the same season. The winter 2013-14 was additionally characterized by anomalous warm sea surface temperatures over the subtropical northwest Atlantic. Although the interannual variability of wind storms in the northeast Atlantic and surface temperatures in North America are significantly anti-correlated, we cannot directly relate wind storm frequency with tropical west Pacific anomalies. We thus conclude that the conditions over the Pacific in winter 2013-14 were favourable but not sufficient to explain the record number of wind storms in this season. Instead, we suggest that warm north Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies in combination with cold surface temperatures over North America played a more important role for generating higher wind storm counts over the northeast Atlantic and the UK.

Arctic Sea Ice, Eurasia Snow, and Extreme Winter Haze in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zou, Y.; Wang, Y.; Xie, Z.; Zhang, Y.; Koo, J. H.

2017-12-01

Eastern China is experiencing more severe haze pollution in winter during recent years. Though the environmental deterioration in this region is usually attributed to the high intensity of anthropogenic emissions and large contributions from secondary aerosol formation, the impact of climate variability is also indispensable given its significant influence on regional weather systems and pollution ventilation. Here we analyzed the air quality related winter meteorological conditions over Eastern China in the last four decades and showed a worsening trend in poor regional air pollutant ventilation. Such variations increased the probability of extreme air pollution events, which is in good agreement with aerosol observations of recent years. We further identified the key circulation pattern that is conducive to the weakening ventilation and investigated the relationship between synoptic circulation changes and multiple climate forcing variables. Both statistical analysis and numerical sensitivity experiments suggested that the poor ventilation condition is linked to boreal cryosphere changes including Arctic sea ice in preceding autumn and Eurasia snowfall in earlier winter. We conducted comprehensive dynamic diagnosis and proposed a physical mechanism to explain the observed and simulated circulation changes. At last, we examined future projections of winter extreme stagnation events based on the CMIP5 projection data.

On the functional form of particle number size distributions: influence of particle source and meteorological variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cugerone, Katia; De Michele, Carlo; Ghezzi, Antonio; Gianelle, Vorne; Gilardoni, Stefania

2018-04-01

Particle number size distributions (PNSDs) have been collected periodically in the urban area of Milan, Italy, during 2011 and 2012 in winter and summer months. Moreover, comparable PNSD measurements were carried out in the rural mountain site of Oga-San Colombano (2250 m a.s.l.), Italy, during February 2005 and August 2011. The aerosol data have been measured through the use of optical particle counters in the size range 0.3-25 µm, with a time resolution of 1 min. The comparison of the PNSDs collected in the two sites has been done in terms of total number concentration, showing higher numbers in Milan (often exceeding 103 cm-3 in winter season) compared to Oga-San Colombano (not greater than 2×102 cm-3), as expected. The skewness-kurtosis plane has been used in order to provide a synoptic view, and select the best distribution family describing the empirical PNSD pattern. The four-parameter Johnson system-bounded distribution (called Johnson SB or JSB) has been tested for this aim, due to its great flexibility and ability to assume different shapes. The PNSD pattern has been found to be generally invariant under site and season changes. Nevertheless, several PNSDs belonging to the Milan winter season (generally more than 30 %) clearly deviate from the standard empirical pattern. The seasonal increase in the concentration of primary aerosols due to combustion processes in winter and the influence of weather variables throughout the year, such as precipitation and wind speed, could be considered plausible explanations of PNSD dynamics.

National Weather Service: Watch, Warning, Advisory Display

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... Education & Outreach About the SPC SPC FAQ About Tornadoes About Derechos Video Lecture Series WCM Page Enh. ... Convective/Tropical Weather Flooding Winter Weather Non-Precipitation Tornado Watch Tornado Warning* Severe Thunderstorm Watch Severe Thunderstorm ...

Columbia Hills, Mars: aeolian features seen from the ground and orbit

USGS Publications Warehouse

Greeley, Ronald; Whelley, Patrick L.; Neakrase, Lynn D.V.; Arvidson, Raymond E.; Bridges, Nathan T.; Cabrol, Nathalie A.; Christensen, Philip R.; Di, Kaichang; Foley, Daniel J.; Golombek, Matthew P.; Herkenhoff, Kenneth; Knudson, Amy; Kuzmin, Ruslan O.; Li, Ron; Michaels, Timothy; Squyres, Steven W.; Sullivan, Robert; Thompson, Shane D.

2008-01-01

Abundant wind-related features occur along Spirit's traverse into the Columbia Hills over the basaltic plains of Gusev Crater. Most of the windblown sands are probably derived from weathering of rocks within the crater, and possibly from deposits associated with Ma'adim Vallis. Windblown particles act as agents of abrasion, forming ventifacts, and are organized in places into various bed forms. Wind-related features seen from orbit, results from atmospheric models, and considerations of topography suggest that the general wind patterns and transport pathways involve: (1) winter nighttime winds that carry sediments from the mouth of Ma'adim Vallis into the landing site area of Spirit, where they are mixed with locally derived sediments, and (2) winter daytime winds that transport the sediments from the landing site southeast toward Husband Hill; similar patterns occur in the summer but with weaker winds. Reversals of daytime flow out of Gusev Crater and nighttime wind flow into the crater can account for the symmetry of the bed forms and bimodal orientations of some ventifacts.

Classroom Demonstrations Of Atmosphere-ocean Dynamics: Baroclinic Instability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aurnou, Jonathan; Nadiga, B. T.

2008-09-01

Here we will present simple hands-on experimental demonstrations that show how baroclinic instabilities develop in rotating fluid dynamical systems. Such instabilities are found in the Earth's oceans and atmosphere as well as in the atmospheres and oceans of planetary bodies throughout the solar system and beyond. Our inexpensive experimental apparatus consists of a vinyl-record player, a wide shallow pan, and a weighted, dyed block of ice. Most directly, these demonstrations can be used to explain winter-time atmospheric weather patterns observed in Earth's mid-latitudes.

Distribution, seasonal variation & dengue transmission prediction in Sisaket, Thailand

PubMed Central

Wongkoon, S.; Jaroensutasinee, M.; Jaroensutasinee, K.

2013-01-01

Background & objectives: Environmental factors including weather variables may play a significant role in the transmission of dengue. This study investigated the effect of seasonal variation on the abundance of Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus larvae and explored the impact of weather variability on dengue transmission in Sisaket, Thailand. Methods: The monthly mosquito larval surveys were carried out in urban and rural areas in Sisaket, Thailand from January to December 2010. Data on monthly-reported cases of dengue fever over the period 2004-2010 were obtained from the Ministry of Public Health. Weather data over the same period were obtained from the Thai Meteorological Department. Chi-square test was used to find the differences relating to seasonal variability, areas of study, and mosquito species factors using entomological survey data. Time series Poisson regression analysis was performed using data on monthly weather variables and dengue cases. Results: There were more Ae. aegypti larvae per household than Ae. albopictus larvae in the winter and rainy seasons. More Aedes larvae per household were found in the rainy season than in the winter and summer seasons. Relative humidity at a lag of one month and rainy days in the current month were significant predictors of dengue incidence in Sisaket. Interpretation & conclusions: Increased rain during the current month and less humidity during the previous month might trigger a higher incidence of dengue epidemic in Sisaket. The present findings suggest that the dengue incidence corresponds with the number of Aedes larvae. The seasonal patterns of dengue outbreaks coincide with the rainy season. PMID:24135179

Livable Winter Cities--Leisure Attitudes and Activities.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Neal, Larry; Coles, Roger, Ed.

1989-01-01

The nine articles included in this feature emphasize how leisure, recreation, health and physical activities make winter cities more livable. Specific topics include techniques for teaching about cold weather safety and cold related injuries, Arctic Winter Games, and results of a study on winter recreation in large North American communities. (IAH)

Weather in Your Life.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kannegieter, Sandy; Wirkler, Linda

Facts and activities related to weather and meteorology are presented in this unit. Separate sections cover the following topics: (1) the water cycle; (2) clouds; (3) the Beaufort Scale for rating the speed and force of wind; (4) the barometer; (5) weather prediction; (6) fall weather in Iowa (sleet, frost, and fog); (7) winter weather in Iowa…

The Aleutian Low and Winter Climatic Conditions in the Bering Sea. Part I: Classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodionov, S. N.; Overland, J. E.; Bond, N. A.

2005-01-01

The Aleutian low is examined as a primary determinant of surface air temperature (SAT) variability in the Bering Sea during the winter (December-January-February-March (DJFM)) months. The Classification and Regression Tree (CART) method is used to classify five types of atmospheric circulation for anomalously warm months (W1-W5) and cold months (C1-C5). For the Bering Sea, changes in the position of the Aleutian low are shown to be more important than changes in its central pressure. The first two types, W1 and C1, account for 51% of the "warm" and 37% of the "cold" months. The W1-type pattern is characterized by the anomalously deep Aleutian low shifted west and north of its mean position. In this situation, an increased cyclonic activity occurs in the western Bering Sea. The C1-type pattern represents a split Aleutian low with one center in the northwestern Pacific and the other in the Gulf of Alaska. The relative frequency of the W1 to C1 types of atmospheric circulation varies on decadal time scales, which helps to explain the predominance of fluctuations on these time scales in the weather of the Bering Sea. Previous work has noted the prominence of multidecadal variability in the North Pacific. The present study finds multidecadal variations in frequencies of the W3 and C3 patterns, both of which are characterized by increased cyclonic activity south of 51°N. In general, the CART method is found to be a suitable means for characterizing the wintertime atmospheric circulation of the North Pacific in terms of its impact on the Bering Sea. The results show that similar pressure anomaly patterns for the North Pacific as a whole can actually result in different conditions for the Bering Sea, and that similar weather conditions in the Bering Sea can arise from decidedly different large-scale pressure patterns.

Road weather information systems : enabling proactive maintenance practices in Washington state

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-03-01

Washington State Department of Transportation's (WSDOT) rWeather program has significantly integrated and expanded the capabilities of road weather information systems (RWIS) in the state, enabling proactive winter maintenance practices and better-in...

Seasonal movements and Home-range use by female pronghorns in sagebrush-steppe communities of western South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jacques, C.N.; Jenks, J.A.; Klaver, R.W.

2009-01-01

Knowledge of seasonal movements by pronghorns (Antilocapra americana) within the easternmost extension of sagebrush-steppe communities is limited. Current hypotheses regarding movement patterns suggest that pronghorns initiate seasonal movements in response to severe winter weather, snowfall patterns, spatial and temporal variation in forage abundance, and availability of water. From January 2002 to August 2005, we monitored movements of 76 adult (≥1.5 years) female pronghorns on 2 study areas (Harding and Fall River counties) in western South Dakota. We collected 8,750 visual locations, calculated 204 home ranges, and documented 17 seasonal movements. Eighty-four percent (n = 55) of pronghorns were nonmigratory and 10% (n = 6) were conditional migrators. Mean distance between summer and winter range was 23.1 km (SE = 2.8 km, n = 13). Five adult pronghorns (8%) dispersed a mean distance of 37.6 km (SE = 12.4 km); of which 1 female moved a straight-line distance of 75.0 km. Winter and summer home-range size varied (P < 0.0001) between study sites. Mean 95% adaptive kernel winter and summer home-range size of pronghorns was 55.5 and 19.7 km2, respectively, in Harding County and 127.2 and 65.9 km2, respectively, in Fall River County. Nonmigratory behavior exhibited by pronghorns was likely associated with minimal snow cover and moderate temperatures during winter 2002–2004. Variation in size of adult seasonal home ranges between sites was likely associated with differences in forage distribution and availability between regions.

Modelling economic losses of historic and present-day high-impact winter storms in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welker, Christoph; Martius, Olivia; Stucki, Peter; Bresch, David; Dierer, Silke; Brönnimann, Stefan

2015-04-01

Windstorms can cause significant financial damage and they rank among the most hazardous meteorological hazards in Switzerland. Risk associated with windstorms involves the combination of hazardous weather conditions, such as high wind gust speeds, and socio-economic factors, such as the distribution of assets as well as their susceptibilities to damage. A sophisticated risk assessment is important in a wide range of areas and has benefits for e.g. the insurance industry. However, a sophisticated risk assessment needs a large sample of storm events for which high-resolution, quantitative meteorological and/or loss data are available. Latter is typically an aggravating factor. For present-day windstorms in Switzerland, the data basis is generally sufficient to describe the meteorological development and wind forces as well as the associated impacts. In contrast, historic windstorms are usually described by graphical depictions of the event and/or by weather and loss reports. The information on historic weather events is overall sparse and the available historic weather and loss reports mostly do not provide quantitative information. It has primarily been the field of activity of environmental historians to study historic weather extremes and their impacts. Furthermore, the scarce availability of atmospheric datasets reaching back sufficiently in time has so far limited the analysis of historic weather events. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) ensemble dataset, a global atmospheric reanalysis currently spanning 1871 to 2012, offers potentially a very valuable resource for the analysis of historic weather events. However, the 2°×2° latitude-longitude grid of the 20CR is too coarse to realistically represent the complex orography of Switzerland, which has considerable ramifications for the representation of smaller-scale features of the surface wind field influenced by the local orography. Using the 20CR as a starting point, this study illustrates a method to simulate the wind field and related economic impact of both historic and present-day high-impact winter storms in Switzerland since end of the 19th century. Our technique involves the dynamical downscaling of the 20CR to 3 km horizontal resolution using the numerical Weather Research and Forecasting model and the subsequent loss simulation using an open-source impact model. This impact model estimates, for modern economic and social conditions, storm-related economic losses at municipality level, and thus allows a numerical simulation of the impact from both historic and present-day severe winter storms in Switzerland on a relatively fine spatial scale. In this study, we apply the modelling chain to a storm sample of almost 90 high-impact winter storms in Switzerland since 1871, and we are thus able to make a statement of the typical wind and loss patterns of hazardous windstorms in Switzerland. To evaluate our modelling chain, we compare simulated storm losses with insurance loss data for the present-day windstorms "Lothar" and "Joachim" in December 1999 and December 2011, respectively. Our study further includes a range of sensitivity experiments and a discussion of the main sources of uncertainty.

Daily and seasonal activity patterns in the eastern gray squirrel

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bland, M.E.

1977-03-01

The daily and seasonal activity patterns of the eastern gray squirrel were investigated between July 1, 1971 and September 16, 1972. Seasonal variations existed in the amount of time per day squirrels were active, the time of onset and cessation of activity, and the size of home range. Squirrels were most active in the fall and spring and least active in the winter. Two peaks in activity (morning and evening) with a mid-day resting period were characteristic of the summer activity pattern. During the winter one brief period of activity occurred during the warm mid-day hours. In the fall themore » time of onset of activity was consistent and occurred 20 to 30 minutes before sunrise. Cessation of activity was also regular and took place 20 to 30 minutes after sunset. Times of onset and cessation of activity were irregular during the winter and summer with onset usually occurring after sunrise and cessation before sunset. Home range size was smallest in winter and largest in late spring and late summer. Male and female range sizes were similar in fall and winter but in the spring and summer ranges of males exceeded those of females. During winter one night nest location was used per given two week period and daytime activity was restricted to the area around the den site. In spring, summer, and fall each squirrel used between two and three nest locations per two week period and squirrels traveled considerable distance from the den site. Hardwood and cedar forests were heavily utilized by the squirrels with approximately 53 percent of the locations occurring in hardwood forests and 38 percent in cedar forests. Correlations between the amount of time per day squirrels were active and various abiotic and biotic factors were made. Snow cover and/or extremely cold temperatures during the winter and early spring curtailed movement, and rainy weather in summer decreased activity. The availability of acorns in the autumn and the appearance of food in the spring increased movement.« less

Interactive effects of prey and weather on golden eagle reproduction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steenhof, Karen; Kochert, Michael N.; McDonald, T.L.

1997-01-01

1. The reproduction of the golden eagle Aquila chrysaetos was studied in southwestern Idaho for 23 years, and the relationship between eagle reproduction and jackrabbit Lepus californicus abundance, weather factors, and their interactions, was modelled using general linear models. Backward elimination procedures were used to arrive at parsimonious models.2. The number of golden eagle pairs occupying nesting territories each year showed a significant decline through time that was unrelated to either annual rabbit abundance or winter severity. However, eagle hatching dates were significantly related to both winter severity and jackrabbit abundance. Eagles hatched earlier when jackrabbits were abundant, and they hatched later after severe winters.3. Jackrabbit abundance influenced the proportion of pairs that laid eggs, the proportion of pairs that were successful, mean brood size at fledging, and the number of young fledged per pair. Weather interacted with prey to influence eagle reproductive rates.4. Both jackrabbit abundance and winter severity were important in predicting the percentage of eagle pairs that laid eggs. Percentage laying was related positively to jackrabbit abundance and inversely related to winter severity.5. The variables most useful in predicting percentage of laying pairs successful were rabbit abundance and the number of extremely hot days during brood-rearing. The number of hot days and rabbit abundance were also significant in a model predicting eagle brood size at fledging. Both success and brood size were positively related to jackrabbit abundance and inversely related to the frequency of hot days in spring.6. Eagle reproduction was limited by rabbit abundance during approximately twothirds of the years studied. Weather influenced how severely eagle reproduction declined in those years.7. This study demonstrates that prey and weather can interact to limit a large raptor population's productivity. Smaller raptors could be affected more strongly, especially in colder or wetter climates.

Modelling seasonal effects of temperature and precipitation on honey bee winter mortality in a temperate climate.

PubMed

Switanek, Matthew; Crailsheim, Karl; Truhetz, Heimo; Brodschneider, Robert

2017-02-01

Insect pollinators are essential to global food production. For this reason, it is alarming that honey bee (Apis mellifera) populations across the world have recently seen increased rates of mortality. These changes in colony mortality are often ascribed to one or more factors including parasites, diseases, pesticides, nutrition, habitat dynamics, weather and/or climate. However, the effect of climate on colony mortality has never been demonstrated. Therefore, in this study, we focus on longer-term weather conditions and/or climate's influence on honey bee winter mortality rates across Austria. Statistical correlations between monthly climate variables and winter mortality rates were investigated. Our results indicate that warmer and drier weather conditions in the preceding year were accompanied by increased winter mortality. We subsequently built a statistical model to predict colony mortality using temperature and precipitation data as predictors. Our model reduces the mean absolute error between predicted and observed colony mortalities by 9% and is statistically significant at the 99.9% confidence level. This is the first study to show clear evidence of a link between climate variability and honey bee winter mortality. Copyright © 2016 British Geological Survey, NERC. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence of winter NAO pattern on variable renewable energies potential in Europe over the 20th century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

François, Baptiste; Raynaud, Damien; Hingray, Benoit; Creutin, Jean-Dominique

2017-04-01

Integration of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) sources in the electricity system is a challenge because of temporal and spatial fluctuations of their power generation resulting from their driving weather variables (i.e. solar radiation wind speed, precipitation, and temperature). Very few attention was paid to low frequency variability (i.e. from annual to decades) even though it may have significant impact on energy system and energy market Following the current increase in electricity supplied by VRE generation, one could ask the question about the risk of ending up in a situation in which the level of production of one or more VRE is exceptionally low or exceptionally high for a long period of time and/or over a large area. What would be the risk for an investor if the return on investment has been calculated on a high energy production period? What would be the cost in term of carbon emission whether the system manager needs to turn on coal power plant to satisfy the demand? Such dramatic events would definitely impact future stakeholder decision to invest in a particular energy source or another. Weather low frequency variability is mainly governed by large-scale teleconnection patterns impacting the climate at global scale such as El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropics and in North America or the North Atlantic Oscillation (hereafter, NAO) in North America and Europe. Teleconnection pattern's influence on weather variability cascades to VRE variability and ends up by impacting electricity system. The aim of this study is to analysis the impact of the NAO on VRE generation in Europe during the winter season. The analysis is carried out over the twentieth century (i.e. from 1900 to 2010), in order to take into account climate low frequency variability, and for a set of 12 regions covering a large range of climates in Europe. Weather variable time series are obtained by using the ERA20C reanalysis and the SCAMP model (Sequential Constructive Atmospheric Analogues for Multivariate weather Predictions, Raynaud et al. 2016). The analysis is performed for solar, wind and run-of-the river energy sources taken individually. For NAO sensitive regions, results shown important deviations between power generation distributions obtained either for strongly positive or strongly negative NAO events. We also used the optimal VRE combination provided by the 100 % solution project (http://thesolutionsproject.org/). We then discuss over the 12 considered regions the vulnerability to NAO events for the energy mix suggested by the 100 % solution project. Reference: Raynaud, D., Hingray, B., Zin, I., Anquetin, S., Debionne, S., Vautard, R., 2016. Atmospheric analogues for physically consistent scenarios of surface weather in Europe and Maghreb. Int. J. Climatol. doi:10.1002/joc.4844

The Early Years: The Wonders of Weather

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ashbrook, Peggy

2013-01-01

This article reports on the wonders of winter weather, as it often inspires teachers' and students' interest in collecting weather data, especially if snow falls. Beginning weather data collection in preschool will introduce children to the concepts of making regular observations of natural phenomena, recording the observations (data),…

Climate, geography, and tree establishment in Subalpine Meadows of the Olympic Mountains, Washington, U.S.A.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Woodward, A.; Silsbee, D.G.; Schreiner, E.G.

1995-08-01

Noticeable changes in vegetation distribution have occurred in the Pacific Northwest during the last century as trees have established in some subalpine meadows. To study the relationship of this process to climate, recently established trees were aged in six subalpine meadows in the Olympic Mountains, Washington. The sites represent three points along a steep precipitation gradient. Subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) has been establishing at the dry end of the gradient, mountain hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana) at the wet end, and both species in the center. Establishment patterns were compared with deviations from the century-long average for these weather variables: winter precipitation,more » Palmer Drought Severity Index, and winter, October and May temperatures. Results show that establishment occurred in dry areas when weather conditions were wetter than average, and in wet areas under drier than average conditions. Establishment at central sites did not show consistent relationships with climate. If future climatic conditions continue to warm, establishment of subalpine fir in subalpine meadows in dry areas may cease and mountain hemlock may resume in wet areas. 34 refs., 5 figs., 3 tabs.« less

Changes to Watershed Hydrology due to Changing Snowmelt Patterns, Michigan, US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ford, C.; Kendall, A. D.; Hyndman, D. W.

2017-12-01

With increasing temperatures and changing precipitation patterns associated with global climate change, the future of hydrologic resources related to snowmelt is less certain than ever. Most existing snowmelt hydrology research focuses on mountainous regions such as the western United States, where snowpack is a primary reservoir of available freshwater. Less research has been done on snowmelt hydrology in non-mountainous, temperate middle to upper latitude regions such as the Midwestern US, where snowmelt is still an important contributor to water budgets (and critically summer water supplies). This study examines the changes to watershed hydrology due to changing snowmelt patterns in Michigan, which has a tension line between seasonally-persistent snowpacks in the north, and episodic snowpacks in the south. This transition varies in space and time, and is likely moving northward as a consequence of climate change. Changes to snow and winter weather were statistically determined from output of the NOAA's Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS) model along with historical weather data from the Global Historical Climatology Network. Stream data from the USGS, combined with in-house monitoring data from groundwater and soil moisture networks provide insight into the hydrologic changes. Snowmelt in years with warmer winter temperatures tend to end earlier in the year, resulting in earlier peak stream flows. These changes become more noticeable in the northern regions of the state, where snowfall amounts can be amongst the largest in the country. This study also examines the changing spatial transition zone between regions with snow lasting throughout the season and regions with a more episodic snow presence. In an area with some of the largest freshwater resources in the world, significant changes to streamflow and groundwater recharge could impact already stressed ecosystems and local water supplies.

[Influence of the Weather on the Incidence of Fractures in the Elderly].

PubMed

Burget, F; Foltán, O; Kraus, J; Kudrna, K; Novák, M; Ulrych, J

2016-01-01

PURPOSE OF THE STUDY The incidence of geriatric fractures (proximal femur, distal radius, proximal humerus and thoracolumbar spine injuries) in the population increases with ageing. However, the role of weather conditions, such as icy and slippery winter, should not be overlooked. A deeper insight into this relationship may bring about a better understanding of the fracture aetiology and thus allow for improvement in the prevention of fractures in elderly people. MATERIAL AND METHODS This prospective study included 676 patients (469 women and 207 men) aged 65 and over. Relationships between the incidence of geriatric fractures in these patients and the season, weather phenomena (i.e., air temperature, atmospheric pressure, air humidity, wind speed, visibility, rain, snow, mist and storm) and global biometeorological data in the period from 1 January 2012 to 31 December 2013 were investigated. Patients with high velocity trauma or those with pathological fractures were excluded. Time (day/night), the place of injury (outdoor/indoor/home environment), comorbidities and chronicuse medication were also recorded. Weather forecast records with weather health loads (biotropic indices) were obtained from the commercial service Weather Underground and the Czech Hydrometeoro-logical Institute. The results were statistically analysed using the Statistika 12 programme. RESULTS The incidence of fractures was higher in winter months but there was no statistically significant correlation between the number of fractures and various weather characteristics (temperature, atmospheric pressure, air humidity, wind speed, visibility, rainfall, snow, mist or storm). On the other hand, a relationship between the incidence of geriatric fractures and the biometeorological data (biotropic index) for that day was significant (r = 0.65, p= 0.0401). The majority of fractures occurred during the daytime (83.7%) and in the indoor environment (83.1%); of the latter fractures, 85.2% were home injuries. The most frequent comorbidities included cardiovascular disease (36.2%), obesity (31.1%) and diabetes mellitus (25.4%). DISCUSSION Studies investigating seasonal patterns in relation to the incidence of geriatric fractures are contradictory. Sixteen previous studies have examined seasonal variations and the incidence of some types of geriatric fractures in different parts of the world. The majority of them have dealt with hip fractures, three with forearm injuries and one compared the incidence of hip, distal forearm, proximal humerus and ankle fractures in the four seasons of the year. Of 13 studies in geographic areas located north of 40°latitude, eight showed no seasonal variation in the incidence of fractures, four recorded an increase in the number of fractures in winter and two showed an increased number of fractures in summer. Three of them also studied the effect of daily temperature. Only one study paid attention to biometeorological data and related the biotropic index to the number of injuries treated at the emergency department. Three studies showed that fractures occurred most frequently in the home environment and during the daytime. CONCLUSIONS This study did not prove any statistically significant relationship between the incidence of geriatric fractures and different weather phenomena. Nevertheless, it showed a higher incidence of fractures in winter, from December to February. Most fractures occurred in indoor environments and during the day. A high value of the biotropic index was significantly related to the incidence of geriatric fractures. The most frequent comorbidities included cardiovascular disease, obesity and diabetes mellitus. Key words: geriatric fracture, season, weather, biometeorological forecast.

Utilizing Vehicle Data for Road Weather Management (Pikalert 5.0).

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-01-01

Weather has a significant impact on the operations of the nations roadway system year round. For example, rain reduces pavement friction; winter weather can leave pavements snow-covered or icy; fog, smoke, blowing dust, heavy precipitation, and ve...

[Effects of sowing times on the spike differentiation of different wheat varieties under the climate of warm winter].

PubMed

Gao, Qinglu; Xue, Xiang; Wu, Yu; Ru, Zhengang

2003-10-01

Spike differentiation processes and freezing damage of three wheat varieties were studied by sowing in different stages. The results showed that under the condition of weather changing warm, the time of entering each stage of spike differentiation of wheat of strong spring variety was earlier than that of wheat of spring variety and semi-winter variety. Sowing times had more effects on durative time of the elongation stage, single-prism stage and two-prism stage of the spike differentiation. Under sowing early, the stronger the springness of wheat was, the quicker it developed, the higher spike differentiation phases it reached before winter, and the more serious freezing damage it suffered in wintering. According to this, the semi-winter varieties of wheat should be adopted first and arranged in pairs with spring varieties in wheat production, and the sowing times should not be too early as the weather becoming warm.

Recent advances in sustainable winter road operations – a book proposal.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-05-05

Investing in winter transportation operations is essential and beneficial to the public and the economy. The U.S. economy cannot afford the cost of shutting down highways, airports, etc., during winter weather. In the northern U.S. and other cold-cli...

How to Have a Healthy Winter | Poster

Cancer.gov

Without a doubt, winter is here. Between the icy weather and the recent hustle and bustle of the holidays, everyone is at an increased risk of getting sick. With that in mind, Occupational Health Services has a few simple tips for staying healthy this winter.

Winter circulation weather types and hospital admissions for respiratory diseases in Galicia, Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Royé, D.; Taboada, J. J.; Martí, A.; Lorenzo, M. N.

2016-04-01

The link between various pathologies and atmospheric conditions has been a constant topic of study over recent decades in many places across the world; knowing more about it enables us to pre-empt the worsening of certain diseases, thereby optimizing medical resources. This study looked specifically at the connections in winter between respiratory diseases and types of atmospheric weather conditions (Circulation Weather Types, CWT) in Galicia, a region in the north-western corner of the Iberian Peninsula. To do this, the study used hospital admission data associated with these pathologies as well as an automatic classification of weather types. The main result obtained was that weather types giving rise to an increase in admissions due to these diseases are those associated with cold, dry weather, such as those in the east and south-east, or anticyclonic types. A second peak was associated with humid, hotter weather, generally linked to south-west weather types. In the future, this result may help to forecast the increase in respiratory pathologies in the region some days in advance.

Winter circulation weather types and hospital admissions for respiratory diseases in Galicia, Spain.

PubMed

Royé, D; Taboada, J J; Martí, A; Lorenzo, M N

2016-04-01

The link between various pathologies and atmospheric conditions has been a constant topic of study over recent decades in many places across the world; knowing more about it enables us to pre-empt the worsening of certain diseases, thereby optimizing medical resources. This study looked specifically at the connections in winter between respiratory diseases and types of atmospheric weather conditions (Circulation Weather Types, CWT) in Galicia, a region in the north-western corner of the Iberian Peninsula. To do this, the study used hospital admission data associated with these pathologies as well as an automatic classification of weather types. The main result obtained was that weather types giving rise to an increase in admissions due to these diseases are those associated with cold, dry weather, such as those in the east and south-east, or anticyclonic types. A second peak was associated with humid, hotter weather, generally linked to south-west weather types. In the future, this result may help to forecast the increase in respiratory pathologies in the region some days in advance.

An assessment of the Jenkinson and Collison synoptic classification to a continental mid-latitude location

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spellman, Greg

2017-05-01

A weather-type catalogue based on the Jenkinson and Collison method was developed for an area in south-west Russia for the period 1961-2010. Gridded sea level pressure data was obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. The resulting catalogue was analysed for frequency of individual types and groups of weather types to characterise long-term atmospheric circulation in this region. Overall, the most frequent type is anticyclonic (A) (23.3 %) followed by cyclonic (C) (11.9 %); however, there are some key seasonal patterns with westerly circulation being significantly more common in winter than summer. The utility of this synoptic classification is evaluated by modelling daily rainfall amounts. A low level of error is found using a simple model based on the prevailing weather type. Finally, characteristics of the circulation classification are compared to those for the original JC British Isles catalogue and a much more equal distribution of flow types is seen in the former classification.

Weather warnings predict fall-related injuries among older adults.

PubMed

Mondor, Luke; Charland, Katia; Verma, Aman; Buckeridge, David L

2015-05-01

weather predictions are a useful tool for informing public health planning and prevention strategies for non-injury health outcomes, but the association between winter weather warnings and fall-related injuries has not been assessed previously. to examine the association between fall-related injuries among older adults and government-issued winter weather warnings. using a dynamic cohort of individuals ≥65 years of age who lived in Montreal between 1998 and 2006, we identified all fall-related injuries from administrative data using a validated set of diagnostic and procedure codes. We compared rates of injuries on days with freezing rain or snowstorm warnings to rates observed on days without warnings. We also compared the incidence of injuries on winter days to non-winter days. All analyses were performed overall and stratified by age and sex. freezing rain alerts were associated with an increase in fall-related injuries (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.20, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08-1.32), particularly among males (IRR = 1.31, 95% CI: 1.10-1.56), and lower rates of injuries were associated with snowstorm alerts (IRR = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.80-0.99). The rate of fall-related injuries did not differ seasonally (IRR = 1.00, 95% CI: 0.97-1.03). official weather warnings are predictive of increases in fall-related injuries among older adults. Public health agencies should consider using these warnings to trigger initiation of injury prevention strategies in advance of inclement weather. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Extreme cyclone events in the Arctic: Wintertime variability and trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rinke, A.; Maturilli, M.; Graham, R. M.; Matthes, H.; Handorf, D.; Cohen, L.; Hudson, S. R.; Moore, J. C.

2017-12-01

Extreme cyclone events often occur during Arctic winters, and are of concern as they transport heat and moisture into the Arctic, which is associated with mixed-phase clouds and increased longwave downward radiation, and can cause temperatures to rise above freezing resulting in wintertime sea-ice melting or retarded sea-ice growth. With Arctic amplification and associated reduced sea-ice cover and warmer sea surface temperatures, the occurrence of extreme cyclones events could be a plausible scenario. We calculate the spatial patterns, and changes and trends of the number of extreme cyclone events in the Arctic based on ERA-Interim six-hourly sea level pressure (SLP) data for winter (November-February) 1979-2015. Further, we analyze the SLP data from the Ny-Ålesund station for the same 37 year period. We define an extreme cyclone event by an extreme low central pressure (SLP below 985 hPa, which is the 5th percentile of the Ny-Ålesund/N-ICE2015 SLP data). Typically 20-40 extreme cyclone events (sometimes called `weather bombs') occur in the Arctic North Atlantic per winter season, with an increasing trend of 6 events/decade, according to the Ny-Ålesund data. This increased frequency of extreme cyclones drive considerable warming in that region, consistent with the observed significant winter warming of 3 K/decade. The positive winter trend in extreme cyclones is dominated by a positive monthly trend of about 3-4 events/decade in November-December, due mainly to an increasing persistence of extreme cyclone events. A negative trend in January opposes this, while there is no significant trend in February. We relate the regional patterns of the trend in extreme cyclones to anomalously low sea-ice conditions in recent years, together with associated large-scale atmospheric circulation changes such as "blocking-like" circulation patterns (e.g. Scandinavian blocking in December and Ural blocking during January-February).

Assessing seasonality of travel distance to harm reduction service providers among persons who inject drugs.

PubMed

Allen, Sean T; Ruiz, Monica S; Roess, Amira; Jones, Jeff

2015-10-12

Prior research has examined access to syringe exchange program (SEP) services among persons who inject drugs (PWID), but no research has been conducted to evaluate variations in SEP access based on season. This is an important gap in the literature given that seasonal weather patterns and inclement weather may affect SEP service utilization. The purpose of this research is to examine differences in access to SEPs by season among PWID in the District of Columbia (DC). A geometric point distance estimation technique was applied to records from a DC SEP that operated from 1996 to 2011. We calculated the walking distance (via sidewalks) from the centroid point of zip code of home residence to the exchange site where PWID presented for services. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to examine differences in walking distance measures by season. Differences in mean walking distance measures were statistically significant between winter and spring with PWID traveling approximately 2.88 and 2.77 miles, respectively, to access the SEP during these seasons. The results of this study suggest that seasonal differences in SEP accessibility may exist between winter and spring. PWID may benefit from harm reduction providers adapting their SEP operations to provide a greater diversity of exchange locations during seasons in which inclement weather may negatively influence engagement with SEPs. Increasing the number of exchange locations based on season may help resolve unmet needs among injectors.

Effects of ENSO on weather-type frequencies and properties at New Orleans, Louisiana, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Muller, R.A.

2002-01-01

Examination of historical climate records indicates a significant relation between the El Nin??o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and seasonal temperature and precipitation in Louisiana. In this study, a 40 yr record of twice daily (06:00 and 15:00 h local time) weather types are used to study the effects of ENSO variability on the local climate at New Orleans, Louisiana. Tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) for the NINO3.4 region are used to define ENSO events (i.e. El Nin??o and La Nin??a events), and daily precipitation and temperature data for New Orleans are used to define weather-type precipitation and temperature properties. Data for winters (December through February) 1962-2000 are analyzed. The 39 winters are divided into 3 categories; winters with NINO3.4 SST anomalies 1??C (El Nin??o events), and neutral conditions (all other years). For each category, weather-type frequencies and properties (i.e. precipitation and temperature) are determined and analyzed. Results indicate that El Nin??o events primarily affect precipitation characteristics of weather types at New Orleans, whereas the effects of La Nin??a events are most apparent in weather-type frequencies. During El Nin??o events, precipitation for some of the weather types is greater than during neutral and La Nin??a conditions and is related to increased water vapor transport from the Tropics to the Gulf of Mexico. The changes in weather-type frequencies during La Nin??a events are indicative of a northward shift in storm tracks and/or a decrease in storm frequency in southern Louisiana.

Adverse weather impacts on arable cropping systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gobin, Anne

2016-04-01

Damages due to extreme or adverse weather strongly depend on crop type, crop stage, soil conditions and management. The impact is largest during the sensitive periods of the farming calendar, and requires a modelling approach to capture the interactions between the crop, its environment and the occurrence of the meteorological event. The hypothesis is that extreme and adverse weather events can be quantified and subsequently incorporated in current crop models. Since crop development is driven by thermal time and photoperiod, a regional crop model was used to examine the likely frequency, magnitude and impacts of frost, drought, heat stress and waterlogging in relation to the cropping season and crop sensitive stages. Risk profiles and associated return levels were obtained by fitting generalized extreme value distributions to block maxima for air humidity, water balance and temperature variables. The risk profiles were subsequently confronted with yields and yield losses for the major arable crops in Belgium, notably winter wheat, winter barley, winter oilseed rape, sugar beet, potato and maize at the field (farm records) to regional scale (statistics). The average daily vapour pressure deficit (VPD) and reference evapotranspiration (ET0) during the growing season is significantly lower (p < 0.001) and has a higher variability before 1988 than after 1988. Distribution patterns of VPD and ET0 have relevant impacts on crop yields. The response to rising temperatures depends on the crop's capability to condition its microenvironment. Crops short of water close their stomata, lose their evaporative cooling potential and ultimately become susceptible to heat stress. Effects of heat stress therefore have to be combined with moisture availability such as the precipitation deficit or the soil water balance. Risks of combined heat and moisture deficit stress appear during the summer. These risks are subsequently related to crop damage. The methodology of defining meteorological risks and subsequently relating the risk to the cropping calendar will be demonstrated for major arable crops in Belgium. Physically based crop models assist in understanding the links between adverse weather events, sensitive crop stages and crop damage. Financial support was obtained from Belspo under research contract SD/RI/03A.

An objective daily Weather Type classification for Iberia since 1850; patterns, trends, variability and impact in precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, A. M.; Trigo, R. M.; Lorenzo, M. N.; Vaquero, J. M.; Gallego, M. C.; Valente, M. A.; Gimeno, L.

2009-04-01

In recent years a large number of automated classifications of atmospheric circulation patterns have been published covering the entire European continent or specific sub-regions (Huth et al., 2008). This generalized use of objective classifications results from their relatively straightforward computation but crucially from their capacity to provide simple description of typical synoptic conditions as well as their climatic and environmental impact. For this purpose, the vast majority of authors has employed the Reanalyses datasets, namely from either NCEP/NCAR or ECMWF projects. However, both these widely used datasets suffer from important caveats, namely their restricted temporal coverage, that is limited to the last six decades (NCEP/NCAR since 1948 and ECMWF since 1958). This limitation has been partially mitigated by the recent availability of continuous daily mean sea level pressure obtained within the European project EMULATE, that extended the historic records over the extra-tropical Atlantic and Europe (70°-25° N by 70° W-50° E), for the period 1850 to the present (Ansell, T. J. et al. 2006). Here we have used the extended EMULATE dataset to construct an automated version of the Lamb Weather type (WTs) classification scheme (Jones et al 1993) adapted for the center of the Iberian Peninsula. We have identified 10 basic WTs (Cyclonic, Anticyclonic and 8 directional types) following a similar methodology to that previously adopted by Trigo and DaCamara, 2000 (for Portugal) and Lorenzo et al. 2008 (for Galicia, northwestern Iberia). We have evaluated trends of monthly/seasonal frequency of each WT for the entire period and several shorter periods. Finally, we use the long-term precipitation time series from Lisbon (recently digitized) and Cadiz (southern Spain) to evaluate, the impact of each WT on the precipitation regime. It is shown that the Anticyclonic (A) type, although being the most frequent class in winter, gives a rather small contribution to the winter precipitation amount, observed on a daily basis. On the other hand, the three wettest WTs, namely the Cyclonic (C), South-westerly (SW) and Westerly (W) types, together representing roughly a third of all winter days, do account for more than 60% of the observed daily precipitation. It is shown that the large inter-annual variability of precipitation in both cities is highly related with the corresponding inter-annual variability of the wet WTs. Ansell, T. J. et al. (2006) Daily mean sea level pressure reconstructions for the European - North Atlantic region for the period 1850-2003, Journal of Climate, 19, 2717-2742, doi: 10.1175/JCLI3775.1 Huth R., Beck C., Philipp A., Demuzere M, Ustrnul Z, Cahynová M., Kyselý J., Tveito O.E. (2008) Classifications of atmospheric circulation patterns: recent advances and applications. Trends and Directions in Climate Research: Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. 1146:, 105-152 Jones, P. D. , M. Hulme , K. R. Briffa. (1993) A comparison of Lamb circulation types with an objective classification scheme. Int. J. Climatol. 13: 655- 663. Lorenzo M.N., Taboada J.J. and Gimeno L. (2008) Links between circulation weather types and teleconnection patterns and their influence on precipitation patterns in Galicia (NW Spain). Int. J. Climatol. Published Online: Nov 12 2007 5:30AM DOI: 10.1002/joc.1646. Trigo R.M. and Da Camara C.C. (2000) Circulation weather types and their influence on the precipitation regime in Portugal. Int. J. Climatol., 20, 1559-1581.

Navy Tactical Applications Guide. Volume 7. Southern Hemisphere Weather Analysis and Forecast Applications

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-10-01

R2). The 500-mb analysis (Fig. IB-22a) during the winter season. Several important differ - has been reanalyzed to fit the satellite image data. ences...EARI AIM 21 JV! so% +20 7 +818 +765 16 SURFACE 86072012Z One Ica us Figure IB-27a. FNOC Surface Analysis . 1200 GMT 20 July 19...and the high and is also shown by the 0000 GMT surface is not a result of the blocking pattern. The axis of the high analysis . The cloud vortex

February precipitation in the wintering grounds of the lesser whitethroat, Sylvia curruca: is it a cue for migration onset?

PubMed

Aloni, Irith; Markman, Shai; Ziv, Yaron

2017-02-01

Numerous studies report shifts in bird migration phenology, presumably owing to global warming. However, most studies focus on migration patterns in the Northern Hemisphere. In this study, we investigated associations between weather conditions in African wintering grounds of the lesser whitethroat, Sylvia curruca, and spring arrival time in Eilat, Israel. Using multivariate regression models, we analysed a 30-year dataset in order to examine correlations between median springtime arrival and 46 climate variables of the wintering quarters. The model obtained exhibited a highly statistical fit, involving mean precipitation in February and March with negative effects and number of wet days during November-February. February precipitation levels were also the major factor associated with the interquartile range of arrival time. Interestingly and contrary to published results, annual or seasonal precipitation showed no correlation with spring arrival time, nor did temperature. Moreover, winter in this region falls into dry season with negligible rainfall quantities. Hence, it is unlikely that precipitation effect on habitat productivity is a driving force of migration, as suggested by other studies. Instead, we propose that precipitation in February acts as a cue for the birds, indicating the approach of spring and migration time.

Winter movements of adult northern goshawks that nested in southcentral Wyoming

Treesearch

John R. Squires; Leonard F. Ruggiero

1995-01-01

Winter movements of four adult northern goshawks (Accipiter gentilis) that nest in southcentral Wyoming were monitored during the winter of 1992-93. Goshawks initiated fall migrations in early fall (primarily mid-September) while weather conditions are moderate. Female 1 migrated 185 km south of her nest. She wintered in a mountainous area in Colorado at a higher...

Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Home Page

Science.gov Websites

grids, quantitative precipitation, and winter weather outlook probabilities can be found at: http Short Range Products » More Medium Range Products Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Legacy Page Discussion (Day 1-3) Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College

FORETELL : providing integrated weather information services across the Upper-Midwest

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-08-19

Weather has an enormous effect on travel and road conditions. Drifting snow, ice, fog, and gusty winds are some of the weather events that contribute to the deaths of more than 1150 U.S. and Canadian highway users every winter. Adverse conditions cut...

[Estimate the abatement rate of septic tank sewage outfall soil on nitrogen pollutants of typical farmer household sewage].

PubMed

Zhou, Feng; Wang, Wen-Lin; Wang, Guo-Xiang; Ma, Jiu-Yuan; Wan, Yin-Jing; Tang, Xiao-Yan; Liang, Bin; Ji, Bin

2013-10-01

The surface soil on sewage outfall and effluent of farmer household septic tank were collected in situ from the typical region of plain river network areas in Taihu Lake Basin, and the typical rainfall (summer 30 mm . times-1, winter 5 mm times -1), temperature (summer 27 degrees C, winter 5 degrees C ) condition and pollutant load were artificial simulated by indoor simulation soil column experiments for estimating nitrogen abatement rate of rural sewage treated by the outfall soil and exploring the abatement rule in different seasons and weather process (7 days before the rain, 3 rainy days, 7 days after the rain). Results showed that: there was the significant difference (P <0.05) in abatement/increase rate of outfall soil on nitrogen between summer and winter. The TN abatement rate, NO-3 -N increase rate of summer showed a significant difference (P <0.01) among different weather processes, but the NH+4 -N abatement rate of summer and the TN, NH+4 -N abatement rate, NO -N increase rate of winter were not significant (P > 0. 05). Therefore, the TN, NH+4 -N abatement rate, NO-3 -N increase rate need to be divided by seasons, TN abatement rate, NO-3 -N increase rate of summer need to be divided by the weather process, which were 38.5% , - 25.0% , 46. 0% and 478. 1%, 913.8%, 382. 0% , before the rain, in rainy day, after the rain, respectively; while the NH+4 -N abatement rate of summer and the TN, NH+4 -N abatement rate, NO-3 -N increase rate of winter do not need to be divided by weather process, were 91.7% , 50.4% , 85.5% and 276.0% , respectively. In the summer, the TN abatement rate in different weather processes was not correlated with NH+4 -N abatement rate, but significantly negative correlated with NO-3 -N increase rate. In the winter, the stable accumulation of TN in soil was an important reason of the TN abatement rate which had no significant difference and kept a high level among different weather processes, and it was closely related to the stable accumulation of NH+4 -N in soil.

Weather and eared grebe winter migration near the Great Salt Lake, Utah.

PubMed

Williams, Augusta A; Laird, Neil F

2018-03-01

This study provides insight from the use of weather radar observations to understand the characteristics of the eared grebe migration near the Great Salt Lake (GSL) and provides unique information on weather conditions connected to these migration events. Doppler weather radar measurements from the Salt Lake City, Utah WSR-88D radar site (KMTX), along with meteorological surface and rawinsonde data, were used to identify and examine 281 eared grebe migration events across 15 winters from 1997/1998 through 2011/2012. An average of about 19 migration events occurred each winter with considerable interannual variability, as well as large variance in the spatial area and number of birds departing the GSL during each event. The migration events typically occurred during clear sky conditions in the presence of surface high pressure and colder than average surface temperatures. Migration events began 55 min after sunset, on average across the winter seasons, and in one case we demonstrate that an extended, nonstop flight was initiated of the departing eared grebes to northern Mexico. Eared grebes leaving the GSL largely flew above the freezing level with a mean northerly tailwind at flight altitude of 3.1 m s -1 and a westerly, cross-flight wind of 5.0 m s -1 while having an average flight speed at cruising altitude of 16.9 m s -1 , or 61 km h -1 . In addition to determining the variability of meteorological conditions during migration events across the 15 winters, atmospheric conditions during the largest migration event observed are presented and discussed.

Weather and eared grebe winter migration near the Great Salt Lake, Utah

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Augusta A.; Laird, Neil F.

2018-03-01

This study provides insight from the use of weather radar observations to understand the characteristics of the eared grebe migration near the Great Salt Lake (GSL) and provides unique information on weather conditions connected to these migration events. Doppler weather radar measurements from the Salt Lake City, Utah WSR-88D radar site (KMTX), along with meteorological surface and rawinsonde data, were used to identify and examine 281 eared grebe migration events across 15 winters from 1997/1998 through 2011/2012. An average of about 19 migration events occurred each winter with considerable interannual variability, as well as large variance in the spatial area and number of birds departing the GSL during each event. The migration events typically occurred during clear sky conditions in the presence of surface high pressure and colder than average surface temperatures. Migration events began 55 min after sunset, on average across the winter seasons, and in one case we demonstrate that an extended, nonstop flight was initiated of the departing eared grebes to northern Mexico. Eared grebes leaving the GSL largely flew above the freezing level with a mean northerly tailwind at flight altitude of 3.1 m s-1 and a westerly, cross-flight wind of 5.0 m s-1 while having an average flight speed at cruising altitude of 16.9 m s-1, or 61 km h-1. In addition to determining the variability of meteorological conditions during migration events across the 15 winters, atmospheric conditions during the largest migration event observed are presented and discussed.

Seasonality and Coronary Heart Disease Deaths in United States Firefighters

PubMed Central

Mbanu, Ibeawuchi; Wellenius, Gregory A.; Mittleman, Murray A.; Peeples, Lynne; Stallings, Leonard A.; Kales, Stefanos N.

2013-01-01

United States firefighters have a high on-duty fatality rate and coronary heart disease is the leading cause. Seasonality affects the incidence of cardiovascular events in the general population, but its effects on firefighters are unknown. We statistically examined the seasonal and annual variation of all on-duty coronary heart disease deaths among US firefighters between 1994 and 2004 using the chi-square distribution and Poisson regression model of the monthly fatality counts. We also examined the effect of ambient temperature (apparent as well as wind chill temperature) on coronary heart disease fatalities during the study span using a time-stratified, case-crossover study design. When grouped by season, we observed the distribution of the 449 coronary heart disease fatalities to show a relative peak in winter (32%) and relative nadir in spring (21%). This pattern was significantly different (p=0.005) from the expected distribution under the null hypothesis where season has no effect. The pattern persisted in additional analyses, stratifying the deaths by the type of duty in which the firefighters were engaged at the time of their deaths. In the Poisson regression model of the monthly fatality counts, the overall goodness-of-fit between the actual and predicted case counts was excellent ( χ42 = 16.63; p = 0.002). Two distinct peaks were detected, one in January-February and the other in August-September. Overall, temperature was not associated with increased risk of on-duty death. After allowing for different effects of temperature in mild/hot versus cold periods, a 1°C increase was not protective in cold weather, nor did it increase the risk of death in warmer weather. The findings of this study reveal statistical evidence for excess coronary heart disease deaths among firefighters during winter; however, the temporal pattern coronary heart disease deaths was not linked to temperature variation. We also found the seasonal pattern to be independent of duty-related risks. PMID:17701682

Grazing management for fall-grown oat forages

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Fall forage production of oat generally will out-yield winter wheat or cereal rye by about a 2:1 ratio, regardless of weather conditions or harvest date because oat plants will joint, elongate, and produce a seedhead before winter, while winter wheat or cereal rye will remain vegetative until spring...

Manure Application under Winter Conditions: Nutrient Runoff and Leaching Losses

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Winter application of manure is commonly practiced and potential nutrient losses can be difficult to predict due to wide variations in weather within a year and between years. This study was conducted to determine nutrient losses via surface runoff and subsurface leachate from winter-applied manure ...

Simulated building energy demand biases resulting from the use of representative weather stations

DOE PAGES

Burleyson, Casey D.; Voisin, Nathalie; Taylor, Z. Todd; ...

2017-11-06

Numerical building models are typically forced with weather data from a limited number of “representative cities” or weather stations representing different climate regions. The use of representative weather stations reduces computational costs, but often fails to capture spatial heterogeneity in weather that may be important for simulations aimed at understanding how building stocks respond to a changing climate. Here, we quantify the potential reduction in temperature and load biases from using an increasing number of weather stations over the western U.S. Our novel approach is based on deriving temperature and load time series using incrementally more weather stations, ranging frommore » 8 to roughly 150, to evaluate the ability to capture weather patterns across different seasons. Using 8 stations across the western U.S., one from each IECC climate zone, results in an average absolute summertime temperature bias of ~4.0 °C with respect to a high-resolution gridded dataset. The mean absolute bias drops to ~1.5 °C using all available weather stations. Temperature biases of this magnitude could translate to absolute summertime mean simulated load biases as high as 13.5%. Increasing the size of the domain over which biases are calculated reduces their magnitude as positive and negative biases may cancel out. Using 8 representative weather stations can lead to a 20–40% bias of peak building loads during both summer and winter, a significant error for capacity expansion planners who may use these types of simulations. Using weather stations close to population centers reduces both mean and peak load biases. Our approach could be used by others designing aggregate building simulations to understand the sensitivity to their choice of weather stations used to drive the models.« less

Simulated building energy demand biases resulting from the use of representative weather stations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burleyson, Casey D.; Voisin, Nathalie; Taylor, Z. Todd

Numerical building models are typically forced with weather data from a limited number of “representative cities” or weather stations representing different climate regions. The use of representative weather stations reduces computational costs, but often fails to capture spatial heterogeneity in weather that may be important for simulations aimed at understanding how building stocks respond to a changing climate. Here, we quantify the potential reduction in temperature and load biases from using an increasing number of weather stations over the western U.S. Our novel approach is based on deriving temperature and load time series using incrementally more weather stations, ranging frommore » 8 to roughly 150, to evaluate the ability to capture weather patterns across different seasons. Using 8 stations across the western U.S., one from each IECC climate zone, results in an average absolute summertime temperature bias of ~4.0 °C with respect to a high-resolution gridded dataset. The mean absolute bias drops to ~1.5 °C using all available weather stations. Temperature biases of this magnitude could translate to absolute summertime mean simulated load biases as high as 13.5%. Increasing the size of the domain over which biases are calculated reduces their magnitude as positive and negative biases may cancel out. Using 8 representative weather stations can lead to a 20–40% bias of peak building loads during both summer and winter, a significant error for capacity expansion planners who may use these types of simulations. Using weather stations close to population centers reduces both mean and peak load biases. Our approach could be used by others designing aggregate building simulations to understand the sensitivity to their choice of weather stations used to drive the models.« less

Columbia Hills, Mars: Aeolian features seen from the ground and orbit

USGS Publications Warehouse

Greeley, R.; Whelley, P.L.; Neakrase, L.D.V.; Arvidson, R. E.; Bridges, N.T.; Cabrol, N.A.; Christensen, P.R.; Di, K.; Foley, D.J.; Golombek, M.P.; Herkenhoff, K.; Knudson, A.; Kuzmin, R.O.; Li, R.; Michaels, T.; Squyres, S. W.; Sullivan, R.; Thompson, S.D.

2008-01-01

Abundant wind-related features occur along Spirit's traverse into the Columbia Hills over the basaltic plains of Gusev Crater. Most of the windblown sands are probably derived from weathering of rocks within the crater, and possibly from deposits associated with Ma'adim Vallis. Windblown particles act as agents of abrasion, forming ventifacts, and are organized in places, into various bed forms. Wind-related features seen from orbit, results from atmospheric models, and considerations of topography suggest that the general wind patterns and transport pathways involve: (1) winter nighttime winds that carry sediments from the mouth of Ma'adim. Vallis into the landing site area of Spirit, where they are mixed with locally derived sediments, and (2) winter daytime winds that transport the sediments from the landing site southeast toward Husband Hill; similar patterns occur in the summer but with weaker winds. Reversals of daytime flow out of Gusev Crater and nighttime wind flow into the crater can account for the symmetry of the bed forms and bimodal orientations of some ventifacts. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

[Incidence of proximal femur fractures in relation to seasons of the year and weather].

PubMed

Burget, F; Pleva, L; Kudrna, K; Kudrnová, Z

2012-01-01

The opinion that proximal femur fractures occur mainly in the winter season and are related to slippery surfaces prevails in both the lay and medical communities. The elucidation of this relationship would lead to a better understanding of the aetiology of these fractures and may help to prevent them in the elderly population. In a retrospective study conducted at two departments, the occurrence of proximal femur fractures in patients 60+ years old in relation to weather conditions (air temperature and its humidity, atmospheric pressure, rain and mist) between January 1, 2001 and December 31, 2005 was investigated. Patients with high-energy or pathological fractures were excluded. The results were evaluated by Statistika software. A total of 1720 patients were studied, of whom 1313 were women and 407 were men. The numbers of fractures did not differ significantly among either the seasons or months of the year. No correlation was found between the number of fractures and each of the weather characteristics (air temperature and its humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind speed and visibility). It is widely believed that hip fractures are connected with winter months and temperatures below zero. This is supported by several facts related to winter characteristics, such as slippery icy pavements, clumsiness due to warm bulky clothes, bodies affected by cold and thus predisposed to a fall and poorer visibility on shorter winter days. The effect of seasonal variation on hip fracture incidence has been investigated in 10 studies of which only one has taken the influence of daily temperature into consideration. All studies were conduced in the countries north of 40° latitude, i.e., in climatic conditions similar to our country, with temperatures falling below zero and ice-glazed pavements in winter months. Of them, six have found no relation between proximal femur fractures and weather conditions, two have reported an increased incidence of these fractures in winter months and two in summer months. Our study did not show any significant relationship between the incidence of proximal femur fractures and weather characteristics. Seasons of the year had no effect on the number of hip fractures or the length of hospital stay due to their treatment.

WPC Winter Weather Forecasts

Science.gov Websites

Summaries Heat Index Tropical Products Daily Weather Map GIS Products Current Watches/ Warnings Satellite and Radar Imagery GOES-East Satellite GOES-West Satellite National Radar Product Archive WPC

Global climate change and reindeer: effects of winter weather on the autumn weight and growth of calves.

PubMed

Weladji, Robert B; Holand, Øystein

2003-07-01

Reindeer/caribou (Rangifer tarandus), which constitute a biological resource of vital importance for the physical and cultural survival of Arctic residents, and inhabit extremely seasonal environments, have received little attention in the global change debate. We investigated how body weight and growth rate of reindeer calves were affected by large-scale climatic variability [measured by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) winter index] and density in one population in central Norway. Body weights of calves in summer and early winter, as well as their growth rate (summer to early winter), were significantly influenced by density and the NAO index when cohorts were in utero. Males were heavier and had higher absolute growth than females, but there was no evidence that preweaning condition of male and female calves were influenced differently by the NAO winter index. Increasing NAO index had a negative effect on calves' body weight and growth rate. Increasing density significantly reduced body weight and growth rate of calves, and accentuated the effect of the NAO winter index. Winters with a higher NAO index are thus severe for reindeer calves in this area and their effects are associated with nutritional stress experienced by the dams during pregnancy or immediately after calving. Moreover, increased density may enhance intra-specific competition and limits food available at the individual level within cohorts. We conclude that if the current pattern of global warming continues, with greater change occurring in northern latitudes and during winter as is predicted, reduced body weight of reindeer calves may be a consequence in areas where winters with a high NAO index are severe. This will likely have an effect on the livelihood of many northern indigenous peoples, both economically and culturally.

Effects of an evaporative cooling system on plasma cortisol, IGF-I, and milk production in dairy cows in a tropical environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titto, Cristiane Gonçalves; Negrão, João Alberto; Titto, Evaldo Antonio Lencioni; Canaes, Taissa de Souza; Titto, Rafael Martins; Pereira, Alfredo Manuel Franco

2013-03-01

Access to an evaporative cooling system can increase production in dairy cows because of improved thermal comfort. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of ambient temperature on thermoregulation, plasma cortisol, insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-I), and productive status, and to determine the efficiency of an evaporative cooling system on physiological responses under different weather patterns. A total of 28 Holstein cows were divided into two groups, one with and the other without access to a cooling system with fans and mist in the free stall. The parameters were analyzed during morning (0700 hours) and afternoon milking (1430 hours) under five different weather patterns throughout the year (fall, winter, spring, dry summer, and rainy summer). Rectal temperature (RT), body surface temperature (BS), base of tail temperature (TT), and respiratory frequency (RF) were lower in the morning ( P < 0.01). The cooling system did not affect RT, and both the groups had values below 38.56 over the year ( P = 0.11). Cortisol and IGF-I may have been influenced by the seasons, in opposite ways. Cortisol concentrations were higher in winter ( P < 0.05) and IGF-I was higher during spring-summer ( P < 0.05). The air temperature and the temperature humidity index showed positive moderate correlations to RT, BS, TT, and RF ( P < 0.001). The ambient temperature was found to have a positive correlation with the physiological variables, independent of the cooling system, but cooled animals exhibited higher milk production during spring and summer ( P < 0.01).

Effects of an evaporative cooling system on plasma cortisol, IGF-I, and milk production in dairy cows in a tropical environment.

PubMed

Titto, Cristiane Gonçalves; Negrão, João Alberto; Titto, Evaldo Antonio Lencioni; Canaes, Taissa de Souza; Titto, Rafael Martins; Pereira, Alfredo Manuel Franco

2013-03-01

Access to an evaporative cooling system can increase production in dairy cows because of improved thermal comfort. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of ambient temperature on thermoregulation, plasma cortisol, insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-I), and productive status, and to determine the efficiency of an evaporative cooling system on physiological responses under different weather patterns. A total of 28 Holstein cows were divided into two groups, one with and the other without access to a cooling system with fans and mist in the free stall. The parameters were analyzed during morning (0700 hours) and afternoon milking (1430 hours) under five different weather patterns throughout the year (fall, winter, spring, dry summer, and rainy summer). Rectal temperature (RT), body surface temperature (BS), base of tail temperature (TT), and respiratory frequency (RF) were lower in the morning (P < 0.01). The cooling system did not affect RT, and both the groups had values below 38.56 over the year (P = 0.11). Cortisol and IGF-I may have been influenced by the seasons, in opposite ways. Cortisol concentrations were higher in winter (P < 0.05) and IGF-I was higher during spring-summer (P < 0.05). The air temperature and the temperature humidity index showed positive moderate correlations to RT, BS, TT, and RF (P < 0.001). The ambient temperature was found to have a positive correlation with the physiological variables, independent of the cooling system, but cooled animals exhibited higher milk production during spring and summer (P < 0.01).

The Characteristics of Cold Air Outbreaks in the Eastern United States and the Influence of Atmospheric Circulation Patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, E. T.

2017-12-01

Periods of extreme cold impact the mid-latitudes every winter. Depending on the magnitude and duration of the occurrence, extremely cold periods may be deemed cold air outbreaks (CAOs). Atmospheric teleconnections impact the displacement of polar air, but the relationship between the primary teleconnections and the manifestation of CAOs is not fully understood. A systematic CAO index was developed from 20 surface weather stations based on a set of criteria concerning magnitude, duration, and spatial extent. Statistical analyses of the data were used to determine the overall trends in CAOs. Clusters of sea level pressure (SLP), 100mb, and 10mb geopotential height anomalies were mapped utilizing self-organizing maps (SOMs) to understand the surface, upper-tropospheric Polar Vortex (PV), and stratospheric PV patterns preceding CAOs. The Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Pacific-North American (PNA) teleconnections were used as variables to explain the magnitude and location of mid-latitude Arctic air displacement. Persistently negative SLP anomalies across the Arctic and North Atlantic were evident 1 - 2 weeks prior to the CAOs throughout the winter. The upper-tropospheric and stratospheric PV were found to be persistently weak/weakening prior to mid-winter CAOs and predominantly strong and off-centered prior to early and late season CAOs. Negative phases of the AO and NAO were favored prior to CAOs, while the PNA favored a near-neutral phase. This method of CAO and synoptic pattern characterization benefits from a continuous pattern representation and provides insight as to how specific teleconnections impact the atmospheric flow in a way that leads to CAOs in the eastern U.S.

Foraging and feeding ecology of the gray wolf (Canis lupus): lessons from Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, USA.

PubMed

Stahler, Daniel R; Smith, Douglas W; Guernsey, Debra S

2006-07-01

The foraging and feeding ecology of gray wolves is an essential component to understanding the role that top carnivores play in shaping the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems. In Yellowstone National Park (YNP), predation studies on a highly visible, reintroduced population of wolves are increasing our understanding of this aspect of wolf ecology. Wolves in YNP feed primarily on elk, despite the presence of other ungulate species. Patterns of prey selection and kill rates in winter have varied seasonally each year from 1995 to 2004 and changed in recent years as the wolf population has become established. Wolves select elk based on their vulnerability as a result of age, sex, and season and therefore kill primarily calves, old cows, and bulls that have been weakened by winter. Summer scat analysis reveals an increased variety in diet compared with observed winter diets, including other ungulate species, rodents, and vegetation. Wolves in YNP hunt in packs and, upon a successful kill, share in the evisceration and consumption of highly nutritious organs first, followed by major muscle tissue, and eventually bone and hide. Wolves are adapted to a feast-or-famine foraging pattern, and YNP packs typically kill and consume an elk every 2-3 d. However, wolves in YNP have gone without fresh meat for several weeks by scavenging off old carcasses that consist mostly of bone and hide. As patterns of wolf density, prey density, weather, and vulnerability of prey change, in comparison with the conditions of the study period described here, we predict that there will also be significant changes in wolf predation patterns and feeding behavior.

Individual variation in staging and timing of spring migration of Pacific common eiders in Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Margaret R.

2005-01-01

Timing of migration and characterization of migration patterns of birds are usually based on dates of peak migration to and from staging, wintering, and breeding areas used by the bulk of a species. For Pacific common eiders (Somateria mollissima v-nigrum), as well as other species, the timing of migration into and through the Beaufort Sea is based on counts of birds past land or ice-based sites and radar observations, and arrival dates to colonies determined by influxes of birds seen by ground observers. With the continued and proposed development of nearshore and offshore waters of the Beaufort Sea, there is an expanding need to manage local populations. Observations of individual Pacific common eiders can provide a more complete understanding of local populations as well as variability among populations. This study was designed to determine factors influencing migration patterns of individuals nesting in the western Beaufort Sea from their wintering locations along the Chukotka Peninsula, through the eastern Chukchi and western Beaufort seas, until their arrival to their nesting area. The Simpson Lagoon/Maguire Island nesting colonies are 1300-1400 km from the primary winter area. Eiders enter the Beaufort Sea at Point Barrow then move east 300-350 km to their nesting colonies. Nesting adult females were marked with satellite transmitters during summer then followed the next spring and early summer. Transmitters were programmed to provide location data every 3 days (2001, n = 12) or daily (2002 and 2004, n = 7 and 18, respectively) beginning 15 April. I expected the dates of arrival to the colony to vary with weather during migration (Point. Barrow to the colony) and general conditions in spring (early or late year based on differences in temperatures from the long term norm for April, May, and June). All individuals returned to the colony area they were marked the previous year. Data were consistent with other “short” distance migrants. There were no correlations of the dates of arrival to the dates birds left the wintering area, the total days spent staging, wind speed or direction, temperature, weather, or seasonal differences in temperature from the long term average, a plethora of non-significant results. However, two patterns emerged: some birds migrated about 550 km and staged in the eastern Chukchi Sea before migrating to the colonies, while others went directly either to the colony area (1300 km) or elsewhere within the western  Beaufort. I will present preliminary analysis and several hypotheses regarding these two strategies. 

Halting Hypothermia: Cold Can Be Dangerous

MedlinePlus

... who spends much time outdoors in very cold weather can get hypothermia. But hypothermia can happen anywhere— ... just outside and not just in bitter winter weather. It can strike when temperatures are cool—for ...

WPC Excessive Rainfall and Winter Weather Forecasts

Science.gov Websites

Summaries Heat Index Tropical Products Daily Weather Map GIS Products Current Watches/ Warnings Satellite and Radar Imagery GOES-East Satellite GOES-West Satellite National Radar Product Archive WPC

Winter Weather Frequently Asked Questions

MedlinePlus

... Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ... PSAs for Disasters Resources for Emergency Health Professionals Social Media Health and Safety Concerns for All Disasters Animals ...

Winter Weather: Outdoor Safety

MedlinePlus

... Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ... PSAs for Disasters Resources for Emergency Health Professionals Social Media Health and Safety Concerns for All Disasters Animals ...

Distant Influence of Kuroshio Eddies on North Pacific Weather Patterns?

PubMed

Ma, Xiaohui; Chang, Ping; Saravanan, R; Montuoro, Raffaele; Hsieh, Jen-Shan; Wu, Dexing; Lin, Xiaopei; Wu, Lixin; Jing, Zhao

2015-12-04

High-resolution satellite measurements of surface winds and sea-surface temperature (SST) reveal strong coupling between meso-scale ocean eddies and near-surface atmospheric flow over eddy-rich oceanic regions, such as the Kuroshio and Gulf Stream, highlighting the importance of meso-scale oceanic features in forcing the atmospheric planetary boundary layer (PBL). Here, we present high-resolution regional climate modeling results, supported by observational analyses, demonstrating that meso-scale SST variability, largely confined in the Kuroshio-Oyashio confluence region (KOCR), can further exert a significant distant influence on winter rainfall variability along the U.S. Northern Pacific coast. The presence of meso-scale SST anomalies enhances the diabatic conversion of latent heat energy to transient eddy energy, intensifying winter cyclogenesis via moist baroclinic instability, which in turn leads to an equivalent barotropic downstream anticyclone anomaly with reduced rainfall. The finding points to the potential of improving forecasts of extratropical winter cyclones and storm systems and projections of their response to future climate change, which are known to have major social and economic impacts, by improving the representation of ocean eddy-atmosphere interaction in forecast and climate models.

Varied representation of the West Pacific pattern in multiple dynamical seasonal predictions of APCC-MME

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Yun-Young

2017-04-01

West Pacific (WP) teleconnection pattern is one of the well-known primary modes of boreal winter low-frequency variability (LFV) resolved in 500 hPa geopotential height and its phase and amplitude strongly influence regional weather conditions including temperature and rainfall extremes [Baxter and Nigam, 2015; Hsu and Wallace, 1985; Linkin and Nigam, 2008; Mo and Livezey, 1986; Thompson and Wallace, 1998; Wallace and Gutzler, 1981]. This study primary aims to evaluate individual 11 GCMs seasonal hindcasts employed as members of multi-model ensemble (MME) produced in APEC Climate Center (APCC) in representing WP. For the extensive and comprehensive evaluation, this study applied seven verification metrics in three scopes: (a) temporal representation of observed indices, (b) spatial mode separation in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), and (c) regional mode isolated in the preset longitudinal domain. Verification results display quite large inter-model spread. Some models mimic observed index variability while others display large bias of index variability compared to climatology. Basic north-south dipole pattern is mostly well reproduced in both rotated and unrotated loading modes. However, each individual seasonal forecast model exhibits slightly different behavior (e.g. amplification/weakening, zonal and meridional shift, downstream extension and so forth) in representing spatial structure of WP. When taking all 7 metrics into account, one Europe (CMCC) model, one Oceania (POAMA) model and two North America (NASA and NCEP) models are classified as relatively good performers while PNU is classified as a matchless poor performer out of 11. Least WP representing skill of PNU is sort of consistent with the largest bias of NH total variability. This study further tries to examine winter mean biases of individual models and figure out how mean bias is linked to WP representation in model world. Model bias of winter climatology is investigated focusing on six large scale phenomena: East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM), Atlantic dipole, Pacific/Atlantic jets and Pacific/Atlantic Hadley circulations. Changes in structure and amplitude of them are diagnosed in terms of root mean square error, pattern correlation, intensity bias, zonal displacement and/or downstream extension. There is consistent strengthening/downstream extension of Atlantic jet and absence of southern divergence cell of Atlantic Hadley in most seasonal prediction models. It is demonstrated that WP representation has something to do with bias of Atlantic winter climatology (Atlantic dipole and Atlantic jet) from scatter plot and regression analysis. This implies the importance of realistic simulation of winter climatology further upstream for better WP representation. A fundamental conclusion of this study is that the representation of primary WP features varies among individual models of APCC-MME and it is significantly dependent on the deficiencies of some winter mean climatological patterns.

Integrating climate forecasts and natural gas supply information into a natural gas purchasing decision

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Changnon, David; Ritsche, Michael; Elyea, Karen; Shelton, Steve; Schramm, Kevin

2000-09-01

This paper illustrates a key lesson related to most uses of long-range climate forecast information, namely that effective weather-related decision-making requires understanding and integration of weather information with other, often complex factors. Northern Illinois University's heating plant manager and staff meteorologist, along with a group of meteorology students, worked together to assess different types of available information that could be used in an autumn natural gas purchasing decision. Weather information assessed included the impact of ENSO events on winters in northern Illinois and the Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) long-range climate outlooks. Non-weather factors, such as the cost and available supplies of natural gas prior to the heating season, contribute to the complexity of the natural gas purchase decision. A decision tree was developed and it incorporated three parts: (a) natural gas supply levels, (b) the CPC long-lead climate outlooks for the region, and (c) an ENSO model developed for DeKalb. The results were used to decide in autumn whether to lock in a price or ride the market each winter. The decision tree was tested for the period 1995-99, and returned a cost-effective decision in three of the four winters.

Mapping Wintering Waterfowl Distributions Using Weather Surveillance Radar

PubMed Central

Buler, Jeffrey J.; Randall, Lori A.; Fleskes, Joseph P.; Barrow, Wylie C.; Bogart, Tianna; Kluver, Daria

2012-01-01

The current network of weather surveillance radars within the United States readily detects flying birds and has proven to be a useful remote-sensing tool for ornithological study. Radar reflectivity measures serve as an index to bird density and have been used to quantitatively map landbird distributions during migratory stopover by sampling birds aloft at the onset of nocturnal migratory flights. Our objective was to further develop and validate a similar approach for mapping wintering waterfowl distributions using weather surveillance radar observations at the onset of evening flights. We evaluated data from the Sacramento, CA radar (KDAX) during winters 1998–1999 and 1999–2000. We determined an optimal sampling time by evaluating the accuracy and precision of radar observations at different times during the onset of evening flight relative to observed diurnal distributions of radio-marked birds on the ground. The mean time of evening flight initiation occurred 23 min after sunset with the strongest correlations between reflectivity and waterfowl density on the ground occurring almost immediately after flight initiation. Radar measures became more spatially homogeneous as evening flight progressed because birds dispersed from their departure locations. Radars effectively detected birds to a mean maximum range of 83 km during the first 20 min of evening flight. Using a sun elevation angle of −5° (28 min after sunset) as our optimal sampling time, we validated our approach using KDAX data and additional data from the Beale Air Force Base, CA (KBBX) radar during winter 1998–1999. Bias-adjusted radar reflectivity of waterfowl aloft was positively related to the observed diurnal density of radio-marked waterfowl locations on the ground. Thus, weather radars provide accurate measures of relative wintering waterfowl density that can be used to comprehensively map their distributions over large spatial extents. PMID:22911816

Mapping wintering waterfowl distributions using weather surveillance radar.

PubMed

Buler, Jeffrey J; Randall, Lori A; Fleskes, Joseph P; Barrow, Wylie C; Bogart, Tianna; Kluver, Daria

2012-01-01

The current network of weather surveillance radars within the United States readily detects flying birds and has proven to be a useful remote-sensing tool for ornithological study. Radar reflectivity measures serve as an index to bird density and have been used to quantitatively map landbird distributions during migratory stopover by sampling birds aloft at the onset of nocturnal migratory flights. Our objective was to further develop and validate a similar approach for mapping wintering waterfowl distributions using weather surveillance radar observations at the onset of evening flights. We evaluated data from the Sacramento, CA radar (KDAX) during winters 1998-1999 and 1999-2000. We determined an optimal sampling time by evaluating the accuracy and precision of radar observations at different times during the onset of evening flight relative to observed diurnal distributions of radio-marked birds on the ground. The mean time of evening flight initiation occurred 23 min after sunset with the strongest correlations between reflectivity and waterfowl density on the ground occurring almost immediately after flight initiation. Radar measures became more spatially homogeneous as evening flight progressed because birds dispersed from their departure locations. Radars effectively detected birds to a mean maximum range of 83 km during the first 20 min of evening flight. Using a sun elevation angle of -5° (28 min after sunset) as our optimal sampling time, we validated our approach using KDAX data and additional data from the Beale Air Force Base, CA (KBBX) radar during winter 1998-1999. Bias-adjusted radar reflectivity of waterfowl aloft was positively related to the observed diurnal density of radio-marked waterfowl locations on the ground. Thus, weather radars provide accurate measures of relative wintering waterfowl density that can be used to comprehensively map their distributions over large spatial extents.

Future projections of synoptic weather types over the Arabian Peninsula during the twenty-first century using an ensemble of CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Kenawy, Ahmed M.; McCabe, Matthew F.

2017-10-01

An assessment of future change in synoptic conditions over the Arabian Peninsula throughout the twenty-first century was performed using 20 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) database. We employed the mean sea level pressure (SLP) data from model output together with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and compared the relevant circulation types produced by the Lamb classification scheme for the base period 1975-2000. Overall, model results illustrated good agreement with the reanalysis, albeit with a tendency to underestimate cyclonic (C) and southeasterly (SE) patterns and to overestimate anticyclones and directional flows. We also investigated future projections for each circulation-type during the rainy season (December-May) using three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), comprising RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. Overall, two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5) revealed a statistically significant increase in weather types favoring above normal rainfall in the region (e.g., C and E-types). In contrast, weather types associated with lower amounts of rainfall (e.g., anticyclones) are projected to decrease in winter but increase in spring. For all scenarios, there was consistent agreement on the sign of change (i.e., positive/negative) for the most frequent patterns (e.g., C, SE, E and A-types), whereas the sign was uncertain for less recurrent types (e.g., N, NW, SE, and W). The projected changes in weather type frequencies in the region can be viewed not only as indicators of change in rainfall response but may also be used to inform impact studies pertinent to water resource planning and management, extreme weather analysis, and agricultural production.

Road Weather Information Systems (RWIS) data integration guidelines

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-01-01

In an effort to reduce winter road maintenance costs, agencies are using Road Weather : Information Systems (RWIS) to gain more information for application to surface transportation. : RWIS technologies consist of roadside Environmental Sensor Statio...

Advanced decision support for winter road maintenance

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-01-01

This document provides an overview of the Federal Highway Administration's winter Maintenance Decision Support System (MDSS). The MDSS is a decision support tool that has the ability to provide weather predictions focused toward the road surface. The...

7 CFR 760.702 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

..., moisture, humidity, severe storms, thunderstorms, ground saturation or standing water, hail, winter storms, ice storms, snow, blizzard, hurricane, typhoons, tropical storms, and cold wet weather. A disaster..., moisture, humidity, severe storms, thunderstorms, ground saturation or standing water, hail, winter storms...

7 CFR 760.702 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

..., moisture, humidity, severe storms, thunderstorms, ground saturation or standing water, hail, winter storms, ice storms, snow, blizzard, hurricane, typhoons, tropical storms, and cold wet weather. A disaster..., moisture, humidity, severe storms, thunderstorms, ground saturation or standing water, hail, winter storms...

7 CFR 760.702 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

..., moisture, humidity, severe storms, thunderstorms, ground saturation or standing water, hail, winter storms, ice storms, snow, blizzard, hurricane, typhoons, tropical storms, and cold wet weather. A disaster..., moisture, humidity, severe storms, thunderstorms, ground saturation or standing water, hail, winter storms...

7 CFR 760.702 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

..., moisture, humidity, severe storms, thunderstorms, ground saturation or standing water, hail, winter storms, ice storms, snow, blizzard, hurricane, typhoons, tropical storms, and cold wet weather. A disaster..., moisture, humidity, severe storms, thunderstorms, ground saturation or standing water, hail, winter storms...

Variation in the Incidence of Distal Radius Fractures in the US Elderly as Related to Slippery Weather Conditions

PubMed Central

Giladi, Aviram M.; Shauver, Melissa J.; Ho, Allison; Zhong, Lin; Kim, H. Myra; Chung, Kevin C.

2014-01-01

Background Distal radius fractures (DRFs) are costly and debilitating injuries, especially for the elderly. DRFs often occur from falls and more commonly occur outdoors. Inclement weather, especially in the winter, may increase the risk of fall-related injuries. Small community studies have reported increased risk of DRF due to inclement winter weather; however, larger studies are lacking. Methods We analyzed a sample of 2007 Medicare claims for DRF. Weather data were collected for the date and location of each DRF in our analysis cohort. A novel slipperiness score (0–7, 7 indicates the most slippery weather) was used as a measure of the severity of slippery outdoor conditions. Negative binomial regression models evaluated the correlation between slipperiness and DRF occurrence. Results Risk of DRF was higher in winter months (Incidence Rate Ratio=1.2, 95%CI 1.14–1.26, p<0.001). Days with average temperature ≤ 32°F (IRR=1.36, 95%CI 1.19–1.54, p<0.001), snow/ice on ground at the start of the day (IRR=1.45, 95%CI 1.25–1.68, p<0.001), and freezing rain (IRR=1.24, 95%CI 1.03–1.49, p=0.025) all had an increased risk of DRF. Risk of sustaining a DRF was increased 21% on days with a slipperiness score of 5 or above (IRR=1.21, 95%CI 1.08–1.20, p=0.007). Additionally, for each increase in slipperiness score above 4, the IRR of DRF increased as well. Conclusions Weather events that create slippery walking conditions, most often occurring in winter months, result in an increased risk of DRF in the US elderly. This finding can be used to support resource allocation as well as awareness and prevention campaigns. Level of Evidence IV; retrospective cohort PMID:24469166

Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling in the Northern Hemisphere analyzed with climate network measures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirsch, C.; Donner, R. V.

2017-12-01

The Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling (STC) is a climate phenomenon providing additional predictive skills for extended-range weather forecasting. The variability of the winter stratospheric polar vortex can particularly influence the tropospheric circulation and, hence, mid-to-high latitude weather for a few weeks or months by strong or weak vortex signals propagating downward with time. This study investigates the STC with climate networks. For this purpose, we use the geopotential height field between 20°N and 90°N at 37 vertical levels from the ERA-Interim reanalysis data from 1979 until 2016. There are two main research questions: (i) Is it possible to define a new, more robust index of the variability of the polar vortex than the currently used NAM index by exploiting climate network properties? (ii) What additional information on STC is provided by climate networks? By calculating the transitivity of evolving climate networks at 10 hPa height, we obtain a new characteristic measure for tracing evolving patterns in stratospheric variability. A higher value than the baseline transitivity indicates an anomalous (strong or weak) polar vortex. Displayed for all vertical levels, the transitivity also exhibits the downward propagation of pressure anomalies into the troposphere. Beyond these findings, we observe additional peaks in the transitivity that does not coincide with weak and strong vortex events. These peaks could be used for identifying the change between winter and summer circulation, also called final warming. We will discuss how these results could potentially affect the predictability of tropospheric weather during boreal spring.

Weather daily variation in winter and its effect on behavior and affective states in day-care children

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciucci, Enrica; Calussi, Pamela; Menesini, Ersilia; Mattei, Alessandra; Petralli, Martina; Orlandini, Simone

2011-05-01

This study aimed to analyze the impact of winter weather conditions on young children's behavior and affective states by examining a group of 61 children attending day-care centers in Florence (Italy). Participants were 33 males, 28 females and their 11 teachers. The mean age of the children at the beginning of the observation period was 24.1 months. The day-care teachers observed the children's behavioral and emotional states during the morning before their sleeping time and filled in a questionnaire for each baby five times over a winter period of 3 weeks. Air temperature, relative humidity, air pressure and solar radiation data were collected every 15 min from a weather station located in the city center of Florence. At the same time, air temperature and relative humidity data were collected in the classroom and in the garden of each day-care center. We used multilevel linear models to evaluate the extent to which children's emotional and behavioral states could be predicted by weather conditions, controlling for child characteristics (gender and age). The data showed that relative humidity and solar radiation were the main predictors of the children's emotional and behavioral states. The outdoor humidity had a significant positive effect on frustration, sadness and aggression; solar radiation had a significant negative effect only on sadness, suggesting that a sunny winter day makes children more cheerful. The results are discussed in term of implications for parents and teachers to improve children's ecological environment.

The Impact of Weather Forecasts of Various Lead Times on Snowmaking Decisions Made for the 2010 Vancouver Olympic Winter Games

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doyle, Chris

2014-01-01

The Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics were held from 12 to 28 February 2010, and the Paralympic events followed 2 weeks later. During the Games, the weather posed a grave threat to the viability of one venue and created significant complications for the event schedule at others. Forecasts of weather with lead times ranging from minutes to days helped organizers minimize disruptions to sporting events and helped ensure all medal events were successfully completed. Of comparable importance, however, were the scenarios and forecasts of probable weather for the winter in advance of the Games. Forecasts of mild conditions at the time of the Games helped the Games' organizers mitigate what would have been very serious potential consequences for at least one venue. Snowmaking was one strategy employed well in advance of the Games to prepare for the expected conditions. This short study will focus on how operational decisions were made by the Games' organizers on the basis of both climatological and snowmaking forecasts during the pre-Games winter. An attempt will be made to quantify, economically, the value of some of the snowmaking forecasts made for the Games' operators. The results obtained indicate that although the economic value of the snowmaking forecast was difficult to determine, the Games' organizers valued the forecast information greatly. This suggests that further development of probabilistic forecasts for applications like pre-Games snowmaking would be worthwhile.

Weather daily variation in winter and its effect on behavior and affective states in day-care children.

PubMed

Ciucci, Enrica; Calussi, Pamela; Menesini, Ersilia; Mattei, Alessandra; Petralli, Martina; Orlandini, Simone

2011-05-01

This study aimed to analyze the impact of winter weather conditions on young children's behavior and affective states by examining a group of 61 children attending day-care centers in Florence (Italy). Participants were 33 males, 28 females and their 11 teachers. The mean age of the children at the beginning of the observation period was 24.1 months. The day-care teachers observed the children's behavioral and emotional states during the morning before their sleeping time and filled in a questionnaire for each baby five times over a winter period of 3 weeks. Air temperature, relative humidity, air pressure and solar radiation data were collected every 15 min from a weather station located in the city center of Florence. At the same time, air temperature and relative humidity data were collected in the classroom and in the garden of each day-care center. We used multilevel linear models to evaluate the extent to which children's emotional and behavioral states could be predicted by weather conditions, controlling for child characteristics (gender and age). The data showed that relative humidity and solar radiation were the main predictors of the children's emotional and behavioral states. The outdoor humidity had a significant positive effect on frustration, sadness and aggression; solar radiation had a significant negative effect only on sadness, suggesting that a sunny winter day makes children more cheerful. The results are discussed in term of implications for parents and teachers to improve children's ecological environment.

Arctic vs. Tropical Influence and Over the Period of Arctic Amplification including Winter 2015/16

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, J. L.; Francis, J. A.; Pfeiffer, K.

2016-12-01

The tropics in general and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in particular are almost exclusively relied upon for seasonal forecasting. Much less considered and certainly more controversial is the idea that Arctic variability is influencing mid-latitude weather. However, since the late 1980s and early 1990s the Arctic has undergone the most rapid warming observed globally, referred to as Arctic amplification (AA), which has coincided with an observed increase in extreme weather. Analysis of observed trends in hemispheric circulation over the period of AA more closely resembles variability associated with Arctic boundary forcings than with tropical forcing. Furthermore, analysis of intra-seasonal temperature variability shows that the cooling in mid-latitude winter temperatures has been accompanied by an increase in temperature variability and not a decrease, popularly referred to as "weather whiplash." When a record El Niño occurred this past winter, it should have been an opportunity to showcase decades of research and resources dedicated to the study of the ENSO phenomenon and its global impacts. However the dynamical forecasts performed poorly this past winter. Instead we will show that many of the significant circulation anomalies of this past winter are related to high latitude processes. We believe that the failed forecasts of this past winter will serve as a watershed moment and an inflection point in climate science. Climate science requires a paradigm shift in order to improve long-range forecasts. Less reliance on the tropics and exploration of new regions of predictability, including the Arctic, are required.

How to Find Insects Weathering the Winter.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brody, Jane

1979-01-01

Discusses how and where to find insects and other invertebrates in winter, as well as how to collect samples in order to watch those animals reappear in spring. Includes crickets, honey bees, mosquitoes, house flies, and butterflies and moths. (MA)

Decadal predictability of winter windstorm frequency in Eastern Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Höschel, Ines; Grieger, Jens; Ulbrich, Uwe

2017-04-01

Winter windstorms are one of the most impact relevant extreme-weather events in Europe. This study is focussed on windstorm frequency in Eastern Europe at multi-year time scale. Individual storms are identified by using 6-hourly 10m-wind-fields. The impact-oriented tracking algorithm is based on the exceedance of the local 98 percentile of wind speed and a minimum duration of 18 hours. Here, storm frequency is the number of 1000km-footprints of identified windstorms touching the location during extended boreal winter from October to March. The temporal development of annual storm frequencies in Eastern Europe shows variations on a six to fifteen years period. Higher than normal windstorm frequency occurred end of the 1950s and in beginning of the seventies, while lower than normal frequency were around 1960 and in the forties, for example. The correlation between bandpass filtered storm frequency and North Atlantic sea surface temperature shows a significant pattern with a positive correlation in the subtropical East Atlantic and significant negative correlations in the Gulfstream region. The relationship between these multi-year variations and predictability on decadal time scales is discussed. The resulting skill of winter wind storms in the German decadal prediction system MiKlip, based on the numerical earth system model MPI-ESM, will be presented.

Intra-Seasonal Flexibility in Avian Metabolic Performance Highlights the Uncoupling of Basal Metabolic Rate and Thermogenic Capacity

PubMed Central

Petit, Magali; Lewden, Agnès; Vézina, François

2013-01-01

Stochastic winter weather events are predicted to increase in occurrence and amplitude at northern latitudes and organisms are expected to cope through phenotypic flexibility. Small avian species wintering in these environments show acclimatization where basal metabolic rate (BMR) and maximal thermogenic capacity (MSUM) are typically elevated. However, little is known on intra-seasonal variation in metabolic performance and on how population trends truly reflect individual flexibility. Here we report intra-seasonal variation in metabolic parameters measured at the population and individual levels in black-capped chickadees ( Poecile atricapillus ). Results confirmed that population patterns indeed reflect flexibility at the individual level. They showed the expected increase in BMR (6%) and MSUM (34%) in winter relative to summer but also, and most importantly, that these parameters changed differently through time. BMR began its seasonal increase in November, while MSUM had already achieved more than 20% of its inter-seasonal increase by October, and declined to its starting level by March, while MSUM remained high. Although both parameters co-vary on a yearly scale, this mismatch in the timing of variation in winter BMR and MSUM likely reflects different constraints acting on different physiological components and therefore suggests a lack of functional link between these parameters. PMID:23840843

The effect of inclement weather on ankle fracture management in an Irish trauma unit.

PubMed

O'Neill, B J; Kelly, E G; Breathnach, O C; Keogh, P; Kenny, P J; O'Flanagan, S J

2013-09-01

Ireland is unfamiliar with extreme weather conditions. Such conditions occurred in winter 2009-2010 and 2010-2011, with much of the country being affected by snow and ice. We reviewed the effect that these conditions had on the treatment of ankle fractures in our trauma unit. The study period was from November until February for four consecutive years from 2008-2009 until 2011-2012. We compared two winters with extreme weather with two winters with regular weather conditions. Information from Met Eireann was compared with demographics from patient records to differentiate ice-related injuries from non-ice-related injuries. Ankle fractures were classified using the Lauge-Hansen classification. We compared waiting times in A&E, waiting times for theatre, delays relating to injury severity, and overall length of stay for both groups. We identified 44 ice-related injuries and 67 non-ice-related injuries. Ice-related injuries trended towards more severe fracture configurations using the Lauge-Hansen classification. Patients sustaining ankle injuries during inclement weather were significantly younger than patients sustaining injuries during regular weather conditions. There were no other significant differences between the two groups. Ice-related injuries trended towards a greater severity of fracture configuration. We identified no significant increase in the time to treatment or overall length of stay of patients sustaining ankle fractures during these times. Ice-related injuries did not have greater rates of complications. These results are a testament to the trauma staff in this unit who absorbed the increased workload without compromising patient care.

Sustainable Arctic observing network for predicting weather extremes in mid-latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inoue, J.; Sato, K.; Yamazaki, A.

2016-12-01

Routine atmospheric observations within and over the Arctic Ocean are very expensive and difficult to conduct because of factors such as logistics and the harsh environment. Nevertheless, the great benefit of such observations is their contribution to an improvement of skills of weather predictions over the Arctic and mid-latitudes. The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) from mid-2017 to mid-2019 proposed by the World Weather Research Programme - Polar Prediction Project (WWRP-PPP) would be the best opportunity to address the issues. The combination of observations and data assimilation is an effective way to understand the predictability of weather extremes in mid-latitudes. This talk presents the current activities related to PPP based on international special radiosonde observing network in the Arctic, and challenges toward YOPP. Comparing with summer and winter cases, the additional observations over the Arctic during winter were more effective for improving the predicting skills of weather extremes because the impact of the observations would be carried toward the mid-latitudes by the stronger jet stream and its frequent meanderings. During summer, on the other hand, the impact of extra observations was localized over the Arctic region but still important for precise weather forecasts over the Arctic Ocean, contributing to safe navigation along the Northern Sea Route. To consolidate the sustainable Arctic radiosonde observing network, increasing the frequency of observations at Arctic coastal stations, instead of commissioning special observations from ships and ice camps, would be a feasible way. In fact, several existing stations facing the Arctic Ocean have already increased the frequency of observations during winter and/or summer.

A trial of cross-disciplinary classes at the university and the high school on the seasonal transition and the seasonal feeling from autumn to winter in East Asia (joint activity of meteorology with Japanese classical literature, music and art)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kato, K.; Sato, S.; Kato, H.; Akagi, R.; Sueishi, N.; Mori, T.; Nakakura, T.; Irie, I.

2012-04-01

There are many steps of the rapid seasonal transitions in East Asia influenced by the seasonal cycle of the Asian monsoon system, resulting in the variety of "seasonal feeling" there. For example, the extremely cold air flowing from the Siberian continent to the Japan Islands is transformed by the huge supply of heat and moisture from the underlying sea (the Japan Sea) in midwinter, which brings the large amount of snowfall in the Japan Sea side of the Japan Islands. However, although the air temperature there is still rather higher from November to early December than in the midwinter, such wintertime weather pattern often appears due to the early development of the Siberian high (however, the precipitation is brought not as in snow but as rain). The intermittent rainfall in such situation due to the shallow cumulus clouds from late autumn to early winter is called the word "Shi-gu-re" in Japanese. It is also well known that the "Shi-gu-re" is often used for expression of the "seasonal feeling" in the Japanese classical literature (especially we can see in the Japanese classic poems called "Wa-Ka"). The present study reports a trial of cross-disciplinary class on the seasonal cycle in East Asia in association with the "seasonal feeling" from autumn to winter, by the joint activity of meteorology with the Japanese classical literature, the music, and the art. Firstly, we will summarize the characteristics of the large-scale climate systems and the daily weather situations from autumn to winter. We will also introduce some examples of the expression of the weather situation found in the Japanese classical poems. Next the outline of the cross-disciplinary classes on such topics at the Faculty of Education, Okayama University, and those at Okayama-Ichinomiya High School and Attached Junior High School of Okayama University will be presented together with the analyses of these practices. We should note that the present trial of the classes might also contribute to providing the study materials for the cultural understanding, which is one of the important elements for the ESD (Education for Sustainable Development).

NWS Turn Around Don't Drown Program, Signs and Resources

Science.gov Websites

Temperatures Records Astronomical Data WEATHER SAFETY Safety Campaigns Air Quality Cold Drought Floods Fog Heat Wind Safety Wildland Fires Winter Weather INFORMATION CENTER Weather-Ready Nation StormReady Centers Products and Services Contact Us Glossary flood navigation bar-top Flood Safety Flood Safety Flood

78 FR 17178 - Fisheries of the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and South Atlantic; Shrimp Fishery Off the Southern...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-20

... waters close as a result of severe winter weather. Amendment 9 would also revise the overfished and... has been severely depleted by cold weather. Based on information from standardized assessments, if a... changes to the current regulatory text within Sec. 622.35(d), ``South Atlantic shrimp cold weather closure...

Flood pattern and weather determine Populus leaf litter breakdown and nitrogen dynamics on a cold desert floodplain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Andersen, D.C.; Nelson, S.M.

2006-01-01

Patterns and processes involved in litter breakdown on desert river floodplains are not well understood. We used leafpacks containing Fremont cottonwood (Populus deltoides subsp. wislizenii) leaf litter to investigate the roles of weather and microclimate, flooding (immersion), and macroinvertebrates on litter organic matter (OM) and nitrogen (N) loss on a floodplain in a cool-temperate semi-arid environment (Yampa River, northwestern Colorado, USA). Total mass of N in fresh autumn litter fell by ∼20% over winter and spring, but in most cases there was no further N loss prior to termination of the study after 653 days exposure, including up to 20 days immersion during the spring flood pulse. Final OM mass was 10–40% of initial values. The pattern of OM and N losses suggested most N would be released outside the flood season, when retention within the floodplain would be likely. The exclusion of macroinvertebrates modestly reduced the rate of OM loss (by about 10%) but had no effect on N dynamics over nine months. Immersion in floodwater accelerated OM loss, but modest variation in litter quality did not affect the breakdown rate. These results are consistent with the concept that decomposition on desert floodplains progresses much as does litter processing in desert uplands, but with periodic bouts of processing typical of aquatic environments when litter is inundated by floodwaters. The strong dependence of litter breakdown rate on weather and floods means that climate change or river flow management can easily disrupt floodplain nutrient dynamics.

Potential energy expenditure by litter-roosting bats associated with temperature under leaf litter during winter

Treesearch

Roger W. Perry

2013-01-01

In temperate portions of North America, some bats that remain active during winter undergo short periods of hibernation below leaf litter on the forest floor during episodes of below-freezing weather. These winter roosts may provide above-freezing conditions, but the thermal conditions under leaf litter are unclear. Further, little is known of the relationship between...

Is It Going to Rain Today? Understanding the Weather Forecast.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Allsopp, Jim; And Others

1996-01-01

Presents a resource for science teachers to develop a better understanding of weather forecasts, including outlooks, watches, warnings, advisories, severe local storms, winter storms, floods, hurricanes, nonprecipitation hazards, precipitation probabilities, sky condition, and UV index. (MKR)

Trends in Cold Extremes and Winter Weather for the SPTC Region

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-05-31

Extreme weather poses multifaceted hazards to transportation. There is now increased awareness of the threats of climate variability and change on transportation safety and state of good repair. In particular, a non-stationary climate will potentiall...

Use of Pavement Temperature Measurements for Winter Maintenance Decisions

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1988-01-01

Formation of ice and frost on roadways and bridges presents a significant potential impediment to safe winter travel in Iowa. Roadway surface temperatures are not measured routinely by the National Weather Service and are not part of public forecasts...

Use of pavement temperature measurements for winter maintenance decisions

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-01-01

Formation of ice and frost on roadways and bridges presents a significant potential impediment to safe winter travel in Iowa. Roadway surface temperatures are not measured routinely by the National Weather Service and are not part of public forecasts...

Guidelines to Facilitate the Evaluation of Brines for Winter Roadway Maintenance Operations.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-09-19

This document presents guidelines to facilitate the evaluation of brines for winter weather roadway maintenance applications in Texas. Brines are used in anti-icing applications which typically consist of placing liquid snow and ice control chemicals...

Use of Pavement Temperature Measurements for Winter Maintenance Decisions

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-01-01

Formation of ice and frost on roadways and bridges presents a significant potential impediment to safe winter travel in Iowa. Roadway surface temperatures are not measured routinely by the National Weather Service and are not part of public forecasts...

Using sinuosity to measure the waviness of the extratropical circulation under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, F.; Vavrus, S. J.; Martin, J. E.; Francis, J. A.

2014-12-01

Extreme weather events, such as heat and cold waves, droughts, and floods, have substantial social and economic impacts. Whether these extreme events are related to one of the prominent components of climate change --- Arctic Amplification (AA)--- is controversial. The hypothesis proposed by Francis and Vavrus (2012) is that a reduced meridional temperature gradient owing to AA will cause a weaker and wavier extratropical circulation, which will result in slower progression of weather systems and more atmospheric blocking events. To test this hypothesis we borrow the concept of "sinuosity" from geomorphology to measure the waviness of the boreal extratropical circulation. As applied here, sinuosity is defined as the ratio of the curvilinear length of a circumhemispheric geopotential height contour to the perimeter of its equivalent latitude, where the contour and the equivalent latitude enclose the same area. We use 500hPa daily geopotential heights from NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis and from the CESM climate model's historical and RCP8.5 greenhouse simulations to calculate sinuosity. Observations and simulations exhibit similar annual cycles of sinuosity, with the maximum sinuosity occurring in summer and minimum sinuosity during winter. Although no long-term trend (1948-2013) in sinuosity is observed in winter (DJF) or summer (JJA), a positive linear trend has occurred since the 1980s and accelerated after 1995 at middle latitudes (winter) and high latitudes (summer). The 500hPa zonal wind is found to weaken at latitudes where sinuosity increases. The change of sinuosity and corresponding zonal wind in RCP8.5 simulations is also explored. Our study finds a strong negative correlation between observed daily sinuosity and the daily Arctic Oscillation (AO) index in all seasons. This negative correlation and the tendency of CMIP5 models to simulate a negative AO-like pattern aloft during winter in a warmer climate suggest a trend toward a wavier extratropical atmospheric circulation in the future.

Projected Influences of Changes in Weather Severity on Autumn-Winter Distributions of Dabbling Ducks in the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways during the Twenty-First Century

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Notaro, Michael; Schummer, Michael; Zhong, Yafang

Projected changes in the relative abundance and timing of autumn-winter migration are assessed for seven dabbling duck species across the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways for the mid- and late 21 st century. Species-specific observed relationships are established between cumulative weather severity in autumn-winter and duck population rate of change. Dynamically downscaled projections of weather severity are developed using a high-resolution regional climate model, interactively coupled to a one-dimensional lake model to represent the Great Lakes and associated lake-effect snowfall. Based on the observed relationships and downscaled climate projections of rising air temperatures and reduced snow cover, delayed autumn-winter migration ismore » expected for all species, with the least delays for the Northern Pintail and the greatest delays for the Mallard. Indeed, the Mallard, the most common and widespread duck in North America, may overwinter in the Great Lakes region by the late 21 st century. This highlights the importance of protecting and restoring wetlands across the mid-latitudes of North America, including the Great Lakes Basin, because dabbling ducks are likely to spend more time there, which would impact existing wetlands through increased foraging pressure. Furthermore, inconsistency in the timing and intensity of the traditional autumn-winter migration of dabbling ducks in the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways could have social and economic consequences to communities to the south, where hunting and birdwatching would be affected.« less

Projected Influences of Changes in Weather Severity on Autumn-Winter Distributions of Dabbling Ducks in the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways during the Twenty-First Century

DOE PAGES

Notaro, Michael; Schummer, Michael; Zhong, Yafang; ...

2016-12-13

Projected changes in the relative abundance and timing of autumn-winter migration are assessed for seven dabbling duck species across the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways for the mid- and late 21 st century. Species-specific observed relationships are established between cumulative weather severity in autumn-winter and duck population rate of change. Dynamically downscaled projections of weather severity are developed using a high-resolution regional climate model, interactively coupled to a one-dimensional lake model to represent the Great Lakes and associated lake-effect snowfall. Based on the observed relationships and downscaled climate projections of rising air temperatures and reduced snow cover, delayed autumn-winter migration ismore » expected for all species, with the least delays for the Northern Pintail and the greatest delays for the Mallard. Indeed, the Mallard, the most common and widespread duck in North America, may overwinter in the Great Lakes region by the late 21 st century. This highlights the importance of protecting and restoring wetlands across the mid-latitudes of North America, including the Great Lakes Basin, because dabbling ducks are likely to spend more time there, which would impact existing wetlands through increased foraging pressure. Furthermore, inconsistency in the timing and intensity of the traditional autumn-winter migration of dabbling ducks in the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways could have social and economic consequences to communities to the south, where hunting and birdwatching would be affected.« less

Projected Influences of Changes in Weather Severity on Autumn-Winter Distributions of Dabbling Ducks in the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways during the Twenty-First Century.

PubMed

Notaro, Michael; Schummer, Michael; Zhong, Yafang; Vavrus, Stephen; Van Den Elsen, Lena; Coluccy, John; Hoving, Christopher

2016-01-01

Projected changes in the relative abundance and timing of autumn-winter migration are assessed for seven dabbling duck species across the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways for the mid- and late 21st century. Species-specific observed relationships are established between cumulative weather severity in autumn-winter and duck population rate of change. Dynamically downscaled projections of weather severity are developed using a high-resolution regional climate model, interactively coupled to a one-dimensional lake model to represent the Great Lakes and associated lake-effect snowfall. Based on the observed relationships and downscaled climate projections of rising air temperatures and reduced snow cover, delayed autumn-winter migration is expected for all species, with the least delays for the Northern Pintail and the greatest delays for the Mallard. Indeed, the Mallard, the most common and widespread duck in North America, may overwinter in the Great Lakes region by the late 21st century. This highlights the importance of protecting and restoring wetlands across the mid-latitudes of North America, including the Great Lakes Basin, because dabbling ducks are likely to spend more time there, which would impact existing wetlands through increased foraging pressure. Furthermore, inconsistency in the timing and intensity of the traditional autumn-winter migration of dabbling ducks in the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways could have social and economic consequences to communities to the south, where hunting and birdwatching would be affected.

Weather conditions conducive to Beijing severe haze more frequent under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Wenju; Li, Ke; Liao, Hong; Wang, Huijun; Wu, Lixin

2017-03-01

The frequency of Beijing winter severe haze episodes has increased substantially over the past decades, and is commonly attributed to increased pollutant emissions from China’s rapid economic development. During such episodes, levels of fine particulate matter are harmful to human health and the environment, and cause massive disruption to economic activities, as occurred in January 2013. Conducive weather conditions are an important ingredient of severe haze episodes, and include reduced surface winter northerlies, weakened northwesterlies in the midtroposphere, and enhanced thermal stability of the lower atmosphere. How such weather conditions may respond to climate change is not clear. Here we project a 50% increase in the frequency and an 80% increase in the persistence of conducive weather conditions similar to those in January 2013, in response to climate change. The frequency and persistence between the historical (1950-1999) and future (2050-2099) climate were compared in 15 models under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). The increased frequency is consistent with large-scale circulation changes, including an Arctic Oscillation upward trend, weakening East Asian winter monsoon, and faster warming in the lower troposphere. Thus, circulation changes induced by global greenhouse gas emissions can contribute to the increased Beijing severe haze frequency.

The potential impacts of climate variability and change on temperature-related morbidity and mortality in the United States.

PubMed

McGeehin, M A; Mirabelli, M

2001-05-01

Heat and heat waves are projected to increase in severity and frequency with increasing global mean temperatures. Studies in urban areas show an association between increases in mortality and increases in heat, measured by maximum or minimum temperature, heat index, and sometimes, other weather conditions. Health effects associated with exposure to extreme and prolonged heat appear to be related to environmental temperatures above those to which the population is accustomed. Models of weather-mortality relationships indicate that populations in northeastern and midwestern U.S. cities are likely to experience the greatest number of illnesses and deaths in response to changes in summer temperature. Physiologic and behavioral adaptations may reduce morbidity and mortality. Within heat-sensitive regions, urban populations are the most vulnerable to adverse heat-related health outcomes. The elderly, young children, the poor, and people who are bedridden or are on certain medications are at particular risk. Heat-related illnesses and deaths are largely preventable through behavioral adaptations, including the use of air conditioning and increased fluid intake. Overall death rates are higher in winter than in summer, and it is possible that milder winters could reduce deaths in winter months. However, the relationship between winter weather and mortality is difficult to interpret. Other adaptation measures include heat emergency plans, warning systems, and illness management plans. Research is needed to identify critical weather parameters, the associations between heat and nonfatal illnesses, the evaluation of implemented heat response plans, and the effectiveness of urban design in reducing heat retention.

Microscopic analysis of traffic flow in inclement weather.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-11-01

Weather causes a variety of impacts on the transportation system. An Oak Ridge National Laboratory study estimated the delay experienced by American drivers due to snow, ice, and fog in 1999 at 46 million hours. While severe winter storms, hurricanes...

Road weather forecast quality analysis

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-03-01

It is just as important to keep the highways functioning in a safe and efficient manner as it is to construct them in : the first place. Our economy is built around an efficient transportation system. Winter weather plays an important role : in highw...

Improving the freight transportation roadway system during snow events : a performance evaluation of deicing chemicals.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-05-01

The ability of state DOTs to adequately clear roadways during winter weather conditions is critical for a safe and effective : freight transportation system. Variables affecting winter maintenance operations include the type of precipitation, air and...

Public Health System Response to Extreme Weather Events.

PubMed

Hunter, Mark D; Hunter, Jennifer C; Yang, Jane E; Crawley, Adam W; Aragón, Tomás J

2016-01-01

Extreme weather events, unpredictable and often far-reaching, constitute a persistent challenge for public health preparedness. The goal of this research is to inform public health systems improvement through examination of extreme weather events, comparing across cases to identify recurring patterns in event and response characteristics. Structured telephone-based interviews were conducted with representatives from health departments to assess characteristics of recent extreme weather events and agencies' responses. Response activities were assessed using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Public Health Emergency Preparedness Capabilities framework. Challenges that are typical of this response environment are reported. Forty-five local health departments in 20 US states. Respondents described public health system responses to 45 events involving tornadoes, flooding, wildfires, winter weather, hurricanes, and other storms. Events of similar scale were infrequent for a majority (62%) of the communities involved; disruption to critical infrastructure was universal. Public Health Emergency Preparedness Capabilities considered most essential involved environmental health investigations, mass care and sheltering, surveillance and epidemiology, information sharing, and public information and warning. Unanticipated response activities or operational constraints were common. We characterize extreme weather events as a "quadruple threat" because (1) direct threats to population health are accompanied by damage to public health protective and community infrastructure, (2) event characteristics often impose novel and pervasive burdens on communities, (3) responses rely on critical infrastructures whose failure both creates new burdens and diminishes response capacity, and (4) their infrequency and scale further compromise response capacity. Given the challenges associated with extreme weather events, we suggest opportunities for organizational learning and preparedness improvements.

Ability of an ensemble of regional climate models to reproduce weather regimes over Europe-Atlantic during the period 1961-2000

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Somot, S.; Déqué, M.

2009-10-01

One of the main concerns in regional climate modeling is to which extent limited-area regional climate models (RCM) reproduce the large-scale atmospheric conditions of their driving general circulation model (GCM). In this work we investigate the ability of a multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations to reproduce the large-scale weather regimes of the driving conditions. The ensemble consists of a set of 13 RCMs on a European domain, driven at their lateral boundaries by the ERA40 reanalysis for the time period 1961-2000. Two sets of experiments have been completed with horizontal resolutions of 50 and 25 km, respectively. The spectral nudging technique has been applied to one of the models within the ensemble. The RCMs reproduce the weather regimes behavior in terms of composite pattern, mean frequency of occurrence and persistence reasonably well. The models also simulate well the long-term trends and the inter-annual variability of the frequency of occurrence. However, there is a non-negligible spread among the models which is stronger in summer than in winter. This spread is due to two reasons: (1) we are dealing with different models and (2) each RCM produces an internal variability. As far as the day-to-day weather regime history is concerned, the ensemble shows large discrepancies. At daily time scale, the model spread has also a seasonal dependence, being stronger in summer than in winter. Results also show that the spectral nudging technique improves the model performance in reproducing the large-scale of the driving field. In addition, the impact of increasing the number of grid points has been addressed by comparing the 25 and 50 km experiments. We show that the horizontal resolution does not affect significantly the model performance for large-scale circulation.

Abiotic control of phytoplankton blooms in temperate coastal marine ecosystems: A case study in the South Atlantic Ocean.

PubMed

Bermejo, Paula; Helbling, E Walter; Durán-Romero, Cristina; Cabrerizo, Marco J; Villafañe, Virginia E

2018-01-15

Coastal waters of the South Atlantic Ocean (SAO) sustain one of the highest levels of production of the World's ocean, maintained by dense phytoplankton winter blooms that are dominated by large diatoms. These blooms have been associated to calm weather conditions that allow the formation of a shallow and well illuminated upper mixed layer. In Bahía Engaño, a coastal site in Patagonia, Argentina (chosen as a model coastal ecosystem) winter blooms recurrently peaked on June and they were dominated almost entirely by the microplanktonic diatom Odontella aurita. However, during the year 2015, a new wind pattern was observed - with many days of northerly high-speed winds, deviating from the calm winter days observed during a reference period (2001-2014) used for comparison. We determined that this new wind pattern was the most important factor that affected the phytoplankton dynamics, precluding the initiation of a June bloom during 2015 that instead occurred during late winter (August). Furthermore, the 2015 bloom had a higher proportion of nanoplanktonic cells (as compared to the reference period) and it was co-dominated by O. aurita and Thalassiossira spp. Other variables such as nutrient supply and incident solar radiation did not have an important role in limiting and/or initiating the June 2015 bloom, but temperature might have benefited the growth of small cells during August 2015. If these changes in the timing and/or the taxonomic composition of the bloom persist, they may have important consequences for the secondary production and economic services of the coastal SAO. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of Model Resolution and Snow Cover Modification on the Performance of Weather Forecasting and Research (WRF) Models of Winter Conditions that Contribute to Ozone Pollution in the Uintah Basin, Eastern Utah, Winter 2013. Trang T. Tran, Marc Mansfield and Seth Lyman Bingham Research Center, Utah State University

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tran, T. T.; Mansfield, M. L.; Lyman, S.

2013-12-01

The Uintah Basin of Eastern Utah, USA, has experienced winter ozone pollution events with ozone concentrations exceeding the National Ambient Air Quality Standard of 75 ppb. With a total of four winter seasons of ozone sampling, winter 2013 is the worst on record for ozone pollution in the basin. Emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) from oil and gas industries and other activities provide the precursors for ozone formation. The chemical mechanism of ozone formation is non-linear and complicated depending on the availability of VOCs and NOx. Moreover, meteorological conditions also play an important role in triggering ozone pollution. In the Uintah Basin, high albedo due to snow cover, a 'bowl-shaped' terrain, and strong inversions that trap precursors within the boundary layer are important factors contributing to ozone pollution. However, these local meteorological phenomena have been misrepresented by recent numerical modeling studies, probably due to misrepresenting the snow cover and complex terrain of the basin. In this study, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations are performed on a model domain covering the entire Uintah Basin for winter 2013 (Dec 2012 - Mar 2013) to test the impacts of several grid resolutions (e.g., 4000, 1300 and 800m) and snow cover modification on performance of models of the local weather conditions of the basin. These sensitivity tests help to determine the best model configurations to produce appropriate meteorological input for air-quality simulations.

Effect of surface preparation on service life of top-coats applied to weathered primer paint

Treesearch

R. Sam Williams; Mark Knaebe; Peter Sotos

2008-01-01

Paint companies usually recommend that topcoats be applied to primer paint within two weeks. Unfortunately, this is not always possible. For example, onset of winter weather shortly after applying primer may delay topcoat application until spring. Scuff sanding or repriming are often recommended remedial methods for preparing a weathered primer for topcoats, but there...

78 FR 35571 - Fisheries of the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and South Atlantic; Shrimp Fishery Off the Southern...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-06-13

...) when state waters close as a result of severe winter weather. Amendment 9 also revises the overfished... Atlantic shrimp cold weather closure.'' This is because the current regulations refer to the FMP for the... weather and a closure of state waters. Currently, a state must demonstrate at least an 80-percent...

Winter distribution and survival of a high-desert breeding population of canvasbacks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kruse, K.L.; Lovvorn, J.R.; Takekawa, John Y.; MacKay, J.

2003-01-01

The southernmost major breeding area of Canvasbacks (Aythya valisineria) is located at the Ruby Lake National Wildlife Refuge, Nevada, in the high desert of the western Great Basin. We determined winter distributions, recovery rates, and survival for Canvasbacks banded in Nevada from March to November, 1968–2000. Winter recovery distributions did not differ by sex or age, but differed between direct recoveries (same year as banding) and indirect recoveries (after year of banding), indicating variable site use between years. Of direct band returns (October–March), 92% were from the Pacific Flyway and 56% were from California alone. In California, recovery distributions shifted from southern California and the San Francisco Bay estuary in the 1970s to the Central Valley in the 1980s and 1990s. In the 1990s, there were no recoveries in San Francisco Bay, historically the major wintering area for Canvasbacks in the Pacific Flyway. Adult and juvenile survival decreased by 24% between the 1980s and 1990s. Ruby Lake Canvasbacks exhibited weaker fidelity to wintering sites than Canvasbacks wintering on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Moreover, no major concentrations occurred during fall migration, unlike patterns in eastern North America. Shifts in distribution and survival may correspond to effects of El Niño weather on habitat conditions in Nevada and San Francisco Bay, and to major improvements in water delivery and wetland restoration in the Central Valley. Canvasbacks that use widely distributed and variable habitats may be good indicators of the effects of changing climate and water-use practices on waterbirds throughout this arid region.

Annual elk calf survival in a multiple carnivore system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eacker, Daniel R.; Hebblewhite, Mark; Proffitt, Kelly M.; Jimenez, Benjamin S.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Robinson, Hugh S.

2016-01-01

The realized effect of multiple carnivores on juvenile ungulate recruitment may depend on the carnivore assemblage as well as compensation from forage and winter weather severity, which may mediate juvenile vulnerability to predation in ungulates. We used a time-to-event approach to test for the effects of risk factors on annual elk (Cervus canadensis) calf survival and to estimate cause-specific mortality rates for 2 elk populations in adjacent study areas in the southern Bitterroot Valley, Montana, USA, during 2011–2014. We captured and radio-tagged 286 elk calves: 226 neonates, and 60 6-month-old calves. Summer survival probability was less variable than winter (P = 0.12) and averaged 0.55 (95% CI = 0.47–0.63), whereas winter survival varied more than summer and significantly across study years (P = 0.003) and averaged 0.73 (95% CI = 0.64–0.81). During summer, elk calf survival increased with biomass of preferred forage biomass, and was slightly lower following winters with high precipitation; exposure to mountain lion (Puma concolor) predation risk was unimportant. In contrast, during winter, we found that exposure to mountain lion predation risk influenced survival, with a weak negative effect of winter precipitation. We found no evidence that forage availability or winter weather severity mediated vulnerability to mountain lion predation risk in summer or winter (e.g., an interaction), indicating that the effect of mountain lion predation was constant regardless of spatial variation in forage or weather. Mountain lions dominated known causes of elk calf mortality in summer and winter, with estimated cause-specific mortality rates of 0.14 (95% CI = 0.09–0.20) and 0.12 (95% CI = 0.07–0.18), respectively. The effect of carnivores on juvenile ungulate recruitment varies across ecological systems depending on relative carnivore densities. Mountain lions may be the most important carnivore for ungulates, especially where grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) and wolves (Canis lupus) are rare or recovering. Finally, managers may need to reduce adult female harvest of elk as carnivores recolonize to balance carnivore and ungulate management objectives, especially in less productive habitats for elk.

Winter behavior of bats and the progression of white-nose syndrome in the southeastern United States.

PubMed

Bernard, Riley F; McCracken, Gary F

2017-03-01

Understanding the winter behavior of bats in temperate North America can provide insight into how bats react to perturbations caused by natural disturbances such as weather, human-induced disturbances, or the introduction of disease. This study measured the activity patterns of bats outside of their hibernaculum and asked how this winter activity varied by time, temperature, bat species, body condition, and WNS status. Over the course of three winters (2011-2013), we collected acoustic data and captured bats outside of five hibernacula in Tennessee, United States. During this time, Pseudogymnoascus destructans, the causative agent of white-nose syndrome, became established in hibernacula throughout the region, allowing us to track disease-related changes in the winter behavior of ten bat species. We determined that bats in the southeastern United States were active during winter regardless of disease. We recorded activity outside of hibernacula at temperatures as low as -13°C. Although bat activity was best determined by a combination of variables, the strongest factor was mean daily temperature ( R 2  = .2879, F 1,1450  = 586.2, p  < .0001). Bats that left the hibernacula earlier in evening had lower body condition than those that left 2-4 hr after sunset ( F 7,932  = 7.225, p  < .0001, Tukey HSD, p  < .05). The number of daytime emergences from hibernacula, as determined via acoustic detection, increased the longer a site was P. destructans positive ( F 3,17 808  = 124.48, p  < .0001, Tukey HSD, p  < .05). Through the use of passive acoustic monitoring and monthly captures, we determined that winter activity was driven by both ambient temperature and the presence of P. destructans .

Seasonal variation, weather and behavior in day-care children: a multilevel approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciucci, Enrica; Calussi, Pamela; Menesini, Ersilia; Mattei, Alessandra; Petralli, Martina; Orlandini, Simone

2013-11-01

This study analyzes the effect of weather variables, such as solar radiation, indoor and outdoor air temperature, relative humidity and time spent outdoor, on the behavior of 2-year-old children and their affects across different seasons: winter, spring and summer. Participants were a group of 61 children (33 males and 28 females) attending four day-care centers in Florence (Central Italy). Mean age of children at the beginning of the study was 24.1 months ( SD = 3.6). We used multilevel linear analyses to account for the hierarchical structure of our data. The study analyzed the following behavioral variables: Activity Level, Attentional Focusing, Frustration, and Aggression. Results showed a different impact of some weather variables on children’s behavior across seasons, indicating that the weather variable that affects children’s behavior is usually the one that shows extreme values during the studied seasons, such as air temperature and relative humidity in winter and summer. Studying children and their reactions to weather conditions could have potentially wide-reaching implications for parenting and teaching practices, as well as for researchers studying social relationships development.

Braving the Elements: Protecting Schools against Weather-Related Disasters.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Breighner, Mary

1997-01-01

Discusses common weather-related hazards (floods, windstorms, and winter storms) and provides some steps administrators can take to protect their schools. Suggests administrators periodically assess their school's commitment to loss control, housekeeping, suitable building construction and reinforcement, sprinkler systems, water supply,…

Data mining and gap analysis for weather responsive traffic management studies.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-12-01

Weather causes a variety of impacts on the transportation system. An Oak Ridge National Laboratory study estimated the : delay experienced by American drivers due to snow, ice, and fog in 1999 at 46 million hours. While severe winter storms, : hurric...

Influence of the Scandinavian climate pattern on the UK asthma mortality: a time series and geospatial study.

PubMed

Majeed, Haris; Moore, G W K

2018-04-13

It is well known that climate variability and trends have an impact on human morbidity and mortality, especially during the winter. However, there are only a handful of studies that have undertaken quantitative investigations into this impact. We evaluate the association between the UK winter asthma mortality data to a well-established feature of the climate system, the Scandinavian (SCA) pattern. Time series analysis of monthly asthma mortality through the period of January 2001 to December 2015 was conducted, where the data were acquired from the UK's Office for National Statistics. The correlations between indices of important modes of climate variability impacting the UK such as the North Atlantic Oscillation as well as the SCA and the asthma mortality time series were computed. A grid point correlation analysis was also conducted with the asthma data with sea level pressure, surface wind and temperature data acquired from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. We find that sea level pressure and temperature fluctuations associated with the SCA explain ~20% (>95% CL) of variance in the UK asthma mortality through a period of 2001-2015. Furthermore, the highest winter peak in asthma mortality occurred in the year 2015, during which there were strong northwesterly winds over the UK that were the result of a sea level pressure pattern similar to that associated with the SCA. Our study emphasises the importance of incorporating large-scale geospatial analyses into future research of understanding diseases and its environmental impact on human health. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Atmospheric forcing of sea ice leads in the Beaufort Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, B. J.; Hutchings, J.; Mahoney, A. R.; Shapiro, L. H.

2016-12-01

Leads in sea ice play an important role in the polar marine environment where they allow heat and moisture transfer between the oceans and atmosphere and act as travel pathways for both marine mammals and ships. Examining AVHRR thermal imagery of the Beaufort Sea, collected between 1994 and 2010, sea ice leads appear in repeating patterns and locations (Eicken et al 2005). The leads, resolved by AVHRR, are at least 250m wide (Mahoney et al 2012), thus the patterns described are for lead systems that extend up to hundreds of kilometers across the Beaufort Sea. We describe how these patterns are associated with the location of weather systems relative to the coastline. Mean sea level pressure and 10m wind fields from ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis are used to identify if particular lead patterns can be uniquely forecast based on the location of weather systems. Ice drift data from the NSIDC's Polar Pathfinder Daily 25km EASE-Grid Sea Ice Motion Vectors indicates the role shear along leads has on the motion of ice in the Beaufort Gyre. Lead formation is driven by 4 main factors: (i) coastal features such as promontories and islands influence the origin of leads by concentrating stresses within the ice pack; (ii) direction of the wind forcing on the ice pack determines the type of fracture, (iii) the location of the anticyclone (or cyclone) center determines the length of the fracture for certain patterns; and (iv) duration of weather conditions affects the width of the ice fracture zones. Movement of the ice pack on the leeward side of leads originating at promontories and islands increases, creating shear zones that control ice transport along the Alaska coast in winter. . Understanding how atmospheric conditions influence the large-scale motion of the ice pack is needed to design models that predict variability of the gyre and export of multi-year ice to lower latitudes.

Meteorological factors associated with abundance of airborne fungal spores over natural vegetation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crandall, Sharifa G.; Gilbert, Gregory S.

2017-08-01

The abundance of airborne fungal spores in agricultural and urban settings increases with greater air temperature, relative humidity, or precipitation. The same meteorological factors that affect temporal patterns in spore abundance in managed environments also vary spatially across natural habitats in association with differences in vegetation structure. Here we investigated how temporal and spatial variation in aerial spore abundance is affected by abiotic (weather) and biotic (vegetation) factors as a foundation for predicting how fungi may respond to changes in weather and land-use patterns. We measured the phenology of airborne fungal spores across a mosaic of naturally occurring vegetation types at different time scales to describe (1) how spore abundance changes over time, (2) which local meteorological variables are good predictors for airborne spore density, and (3) whether spore abundance differs across vegetation types. Using an air volumetric vacuum sampler, we collected spore samples at 3-h intervals over a 120-h period in a mixed-evergreen forest and coastal prairie to measure diurnal, nocturnal, and total airborne spore abundance across vegetation types. Spore samples were also collected at weekly and monthly intervals in mixed-evergreen forest, redwood forest, and maritime chaparral vegetation types from 12 field sites across two years. We found greater airborne spore densities during the wetter winter months compared to the drier summer months. Mean total spore abundance in the mixed-evergreen forest was twice than in the coastal prairie, but there were no significant differences in total airborne spore abundance among mixed-evergreen forest, redwood forest, and maritime chaparral vegetation types. Weekly and monthly peaks in airborne spore abundance corresponded with rain events and peaks in soil moisture. Overall, temporal patterns in meteorological factors were much more important in determining airborne fungal spore abundance than the vegetation type. This suggests that overall patterns of fungal spore dynamics may be predictable across heterogeneous landscapes based on local weather patterns.

European summer heatwaves and North Atlantic weather regimes in the last Millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez Castro, Maria del Carmen; Trasancos, Romain; Yiou, Pascal

2015-04-01

The European summer heatwaves have been increasing in frequency and magnitude in the past decades. A higher confidence in future changes in such extremes necessitates to have a better knowledge about extremes behavior in the past climate. The last millennium is well documented in terms of climate forcings. Modelling efforts have provided a wealth of climate simulations covering the last millennium. We want to exploit such data in order to assess how models simulate extreme summer heatwaves. The surface temperature and precipitation are closely related to atmospheric patterns. It has been shown that rainy winter/spring seasons reduce the frequency of hot summer days whereas dry seasons can be followed by summers with high or low frequency of hot days. In this poster, we show the relation between winter/spring precipitation with the frequency of hot days in the 10 hottest summers in Europe and Southern Europe during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP 1150-1250), the Little Ice Age (LIA 1650-1750), and the historical-present period (1850-2005). We first focus on a millennium simulations with the IPSL model (IPSL-CM5). We use daily temperature, precipitation, and SLP data from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) and a couple of IPSL simulations with diferents forcings. Summer weather regimes has been computed as well for NCEP sea level pressure data in order to compare observations with the same period (1948-2005) in CMIP5 and IPSL simulations outputs. We discuss and present the results comparing the effects of hydrological deficits in the preceding season, and the occurrence of specific weather regimes, during the hottest summers over Europe and SouthWestern Europe. This analysis compares differents climate forcings simulations.

Assessment of an extended version of the Jenkinson-Collison classification on CMIP5 models over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otero, Noelia; Sillmann, Jana; Butler, Tim

2018-03-01

A gridded, geographically extended weather type classification has been developed based on the Jenkinson-Collison (JC) classification system and used to evaluate the representation of weather types over Europe in a suite of climate model simulations. To this aim, a set of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) is compared with the circulation from two reanalysis products. Furthermore, we examine seasonal changes between simulated frequencies of weather types at present and future climate conditions. The models are in reasonably good agreement with the reanalyses, but some discrepancies occur in cyclonic days being overestimated over North, and underestimated over South Europe, while anticyclonic situations were overestimated over South, and underestimated over North Europe. Low flow conditions were generally underestimated, especially in summer over South Europe, and Westerly conditions were generally overestimated. The projected frequencies of weather types in the late twenty-first century suggest an increase of Anticyclonic days over South Europe in all seasons except summer, while Westerly days increase over North and Central Europe, particularly in winter. We find significant changes in the frequency of Low flow conditions and the Easterly type that become more frequent during the warmer seasons over Southeast and Southwest Europe, respectively. Our results indicate that in winter the Westerly type has significant impacts on positive anomalies of maximum and minimum temperature over most of Europe. Except in winter, the warmer temperatures are linked to Easterlies, Anticyclonic and Low Flow conditions, especially over the Mediterranean area. Furthermore, we show that changes in the frequency of weather types represent a minor contribution of the total change of European temperatures, which would be mainly driven by changes in the temperature anomalies associated with the weather types themselves.

Distant Influence of Kuroshio Eddies on North Pacific Weather Patterns?

PubMed Central

Ma, Xiaohui; Chang, Ping; Saravanan, R.; Montuoro, Raffaele; Hsieh, Jen-Shan; Wu, Dexing; Lin, Xiaopei; Wu, Lixin; Jing, Zhao

2015-01-01

High-resolution satellite measurements of surface winds and sea-surface temperature (SST) reveal strong coupling between meso-scale ocean eddies and near-surface atmospheric flow over eddy-rich oceanic regions, such as the Kuroshio and Gulf Stream, highlighting the importance of meso-scale oceanic features in forcing the atmospheric planetary boundary layer (PBL). Here, we present high-resolution regional climate modeling results, supported by observational analyses, demonstrating that meso-scale SST variability, largely confined in the Kuroshio-Oyashio confluence region (KOCR), can further exert a significant distant influence on winter rainfall variability along the U.S. Northern Pacific coast. The presence of meso-scale SST anomalies enhances the diabatic conversion of latent heat energy to transient eddy energy, intensifying winter cyclogenesis via moist baroclinic instability, which in turn leads to an equivalent barotropic downstream anticyclone anomaly with reduced rainfall. The finding points to the potential of improving forecasts of extratropical winter cyclones and storm systems and projections of their response to future climate change, which are known to have major social and economic impacts, by improving the representation of ocean eddy–atmosphere interaction in forecast and climate models. PMID:26635077

Climate Degradation and Extreme Icing Events Constrain Life in Cold-Adapted Mammals.

PubMed

Berger, J; Hartway, C; Gruzdev, A; Johnson, M

2018-01-18

Despite the growth in knowledge about the effects of a warming Arctic on its cold-adapted species, the mechanisms by which these changes affect animal populations remain poorly understood. Increasing temperatures, declining sea ice and altered wind and precipitation patterns all may affect the fitness and abundance of species through multiple direct and indirect pathways. Here we demonstrate previously unknown effects of rain-on-snow (ROS) events, winter precipitation, and ice tidal surges on the Arctic's largest land mammal. Using novel field data across seven years and three Alaskan and Russian sites, we show arrested skeletal growth in juvenile muskoxen resulting from unusually dry winter conditions and gestational ROS events, with the inhibitory effects on growth from ROS events lasting up to three years post-partum. Further, we describe the simultaneous entombment of 52 muskoxen in ice during a Chukchi Sea winter tsunami (ivuniq in Iñupiat), and link rapid freezing to entrapment of Arctic whales and otters. Our results illustrate how once unusual, but increasingly frequent Arctic weather events affect some cold-adapted mammals, and suggest that an understanding of species responses to a changing Arctic can be enhanced by coalescing groundwork, rare events, and insights from local people.

Linked Extreme Weather Events during Winter 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 in the Context of Northern Hemisphere Circulation Anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bosart, L. F.; Archambault, H. M.; Cordeira, J. M.

2011-12-01

Lance F. Bosart, Heather M. Archambault, and Jason M. Cordeira Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York The Northern Hemisphere (NH) planetary-scale circulation during winter 2009-2010 was characterized by an unusual combination of persistent high-latitude blocking and southward-displaced storm tracks, manifest by a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation (AO), in conjunction with a moderate El Nino event. The high-latitude blocking activity and southward-displaced storm tracks supported episodic cold-air outbreaks and enhanced storminess over parts of midlatitude eastern Asia, eastern North America, and western Europe as well as anomalous warmth over northeastern Canada and Greenland that delayed sea ice formation and ice thickening in these areas during winter 2009-2010. Although somewhat less extreme than winter 2009-2010, the first half of winter 2010-2011 was also characterized by high-latitude blocking and southward-displaced storm tracks (manifest by negative values of the AO) while the Pacific-North American (PNA), initially negative, became neutral in late December and most of January. Winter 2010-2011 was characterized by moderate La Nina conditions in contrast to moderate El Nino conditions that prevailed during winter 2009-2010. Despite the reversal of the ENSO phase from winter 2009-2010 to winter 2010-2011, high-latitude blocking activity and the associated southward-displaced storm tracks again allowed for episodic cold-air outbreaks and enhanced storminess over parts of midlatitude eastern Asia, central and eastern North America, and western Europe with delayed sea ice formation and thickening over the Davis Strait and adjacent regions during the first half of winter 2010-2011. Beginning in late January and continuing through early February 2011 the phase of the AO and the PNA reversed with the AO and PNA becoming positive and negative, respectively. This linked AO/PNA phase transition was associated with an extreme weather event that brought severe and record-setting cold to parts of the U.S. and Mexico, a powerful snow and ice storm in the Central U.S., and a subsequent and spectacular warm-up east of the Rockies. The purpose of this presentation will be to present an overview of the structure and evolution of the large-scale NH circulation anomalies during the 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 winters. Emphasis will be placed on showing how individual synoptic-scale weather events (e.g., recurving and transitioning western Pacific tropical cyclones, diabatically driven upper-level outflow from organized deep convection associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and western North Atlantic storminess) contributed to the formation of significant and persistent large-scale circulation anomalies and how these large-scale circulation anomalies in turn impacted the storm tracks, regional temperature and precipitation anomalies, and the associated extreme weather.

Precipitation and primary health care visits for gastrointestinal illness in Gothenburg, Sweden.

PubMed

Tornevi, Andreas; Barregård, Lars; Forsberg, Bertil

2015-01-01

The river Göta Älv is a source of freshwater for the City of Gothenburg, Sweden, and we recently identified a clear influence of upstream precipitation on concentrations of indicator bacteria in the river water, as well as an association with the daily number of phone calls to the nurse advice line related to acute gastrointestinal illnesses (AGI calls). This study aimed to examine visits to primary health-care centers owing to similar symptoms (AGI visits) in the same area, to explore associations with precipitation, and to compare variability in AGI visits and AGI calls. We obtained data covering six years (2007-2012) of daily AGI visits and studied their association with prior precipitation (0-28 days) using a distributed lag nonlinear Poisson regression model, adjusting for seasonal patterns and covariates. In addition, we studied the effects of prolonged wet and dry weather on AGI visits. We analyzed lagged short-term relations between AGI visits and AGI calls, and we studied differences in their seasonal patterns using a binomial regression model. The study period saw a total of 17,030 AGI visits, and the number of daily visits decreased on days when precipitation occurred. However, prolonged wet weather was associated with an elevated number of AGI visits. Differences in seasonality patterns were observed between AGI visits and AGI calls, as visits were relatively less frequent during winter and relatively more frequent in August, and only weak short-term relations were found. AGI visits and AGI calls seems to partly reflect different types of AGI illnesses, and the patients' choice of medical contact (in-person visits versus phone calls) appears to depend on current weather conditions. An association between prolonged wet weather and increased AGI visits supports the hypothesis that the drinking water is related to an increased risk of AGI illnesses.

Final report of the evaluation of the FORETELL consortium operational test : weather information for surface transportation

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2003-04-01

Over 17 percent of all fatal crashes occur during winter weather conditions. Of those, 60 percent happen in rural areas (most on non-interstate roadways). The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) Joint Program...

Inter-annual Variability of Snowfall in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, L.

2016-12-01

Winter snowfall, particularly lake-effect snowfall, impacts all aspects of Michigan life in the wintertime, from motorsports and tourism to impacting the day-to-day lives of residents. Understanding the inter-annual variability of winter snowfall will provide sound basis for local community safety management and improve weather forecasting. This study attempts to understand the trend in winter snowfall and the influencing factors of winter snowfall variability in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan (LPM) using station snowfall measurements and statistical analysis. Our study demonstrates that snowfall has significantly increased from 1932 to 2015. Correlation analysis suggests that regionally average air temperatures have a strong negative relationship with snowfall in LPM. On average, approximately 27% of inter-annual variability in snowfall can be explained by regionally average air temperatures. ENSO events are also negatively related to snowfall in LPM and can explain 8% of inter-annual variability. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) does not have strong influence on snowfall. Composite analysis demonstrates that on annual basis, more winter snowfall occurs during the years with higher maximum ice cover (MIC) than during the years with lower MIC in Lake Michigan. Higher MIC is often associated with lower air temperatures which are negatively related to winter snowfall. This study could provide insight on future snow related climate model improvement and weather forecasting.

Objective classification of atmospheric circulation over southern Scandinavia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linderson, Maj-Lena

2001-02-01

A method for calculating circulation indices and weather types following the Lamb classification is applied to southern Scandinavia. The main objective is to test the ability of the method to describe the atmospheric circulation over the area, and to evaluate the extent to which the pressure patterns determine local precipitation and temperature in Scania, southernmost Sweden. The weather type classification method works well and produces distinct groups. However, the variability within the group is large with regard to the location of the low pressure centres, which may have implications for the precipitation over the area. The anticyclonic weather type dominates, together with the cyclonic and westerly types. This deviates partly from the general picture for Sweden and may be explained by the southerly location of the study area. The cyclonic type is most frequent in spring, although cloudiness and amount of rain are lowest during this season. This could be explained by the occurrence of weaker cyclones or low air humidity during this time of year. Local temperature and precipitation were modelled by stepwise regression for each season, designating weather types as independent variables. Only the winter season-modelled temperature and precipitation show a high and robust correspondence to the observed temperature and precipitation, even though <60% of the precipitation variance is explained. In the other seasons, the connection between atmospheric circulation and the local temperature and precipitation is low. Other meteorological parameters may need to be taken into account. The time and space resolution of the mean sea level pressure (MSLP) grid may affect the results, as many important features might not be covered by the classification. Local physiography may also influence the local climate in a way that cannot be described by the atmospheric circulation pattern alone, stressing the importance of using more than one observation series.

Storm related closures of I-5 and I-90 : freight transportation economic impact assessment report, winter 2007-2008.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-09-01

This report documents the economic impact analysis undertaken by WSDOTs Freight Systems Division in response to the : storm-related closures of I-5 and I-90 in the winter 2007-2008. The closures were the result of severe weather that : overwhelmed...

Grapevine winter survival and prospects in an age of changing climate

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Vines transition from active growth to dormancy by processes controlled by genes, but are greatly influenced by variation in weather conditions - even in the coldest part of the winter. My research program, known as the USDA Cold Hardiness Genetics Research Program, seeks to understand how a vine's...

Distillate Fuel Oil Assessment for Winter 1996-1997

EIA Publications

1997-01-01

This article describes findings of an analysis of the current low level of distillate stocks which are available to help meet the demand for heating fuel this winter, and presents a summary of the Energy Information Administration's distillate fuel oil outlook for the current heating season under two weather scenarios.

Sixty-One Martian Days of Weather Monitoring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2008-01-01

The Canadian Meteorological Station on NASA's Phoenix Mars Lander tracked some changes in daily weather patterns over the first 61 Martian days of the mission (May 26 to July 22, 2008), a period covering late spring to early summer on northern Mars.

This summary weather report notes that daily temperature ranges have changed only about 4 Celsius degrees (7 Fahrenheit degrees) since the start of the mission. The average daily high has been minus 30 degrees C (minus 22 degrees F), and the average daily low has been minus 79 degrees C (minus 110 degrees F).

The mission has been accumulating enough wind data to recognize daily patterns, such as a change in direction between day and night, and to begin analyzing whether the patterns are driven by local factors or larger-scale movement of the atmosphere.

The air pressure has steadily decreased. Scientists attribute this to a phenomenon on Mars that is not shared by Earth. The south polar cap of carbon dioxide ice grows during the southern winter on Mars, pulling enough carbon dioxide out of the thin atmosphere to cause a seasonal decrease in the amount of atmosphere Mars has. Most of the Martian atmosphere is carbon dioxide. This measurable dip in atmospheric pressure, even near the opposite pole, is a sign of large amounts of carbon dioxide being pulled out of the atmosphere as carbon-dioxide ice accumulates at the south pole.

The Phoenix Mission is led by the University of Arizona, Tucson, on behalf of NASA. Project management of the mission is by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif. Spacecraft development is by Lockheed Martin Space Systems, Denver.

How does the dengue vector mosquito Aedes albopictus respond to global warming?

PubMed

Jia, Pengfei; Chen, Xiang; Chen, Jin; Lu, Liang; Liu, Qiyong; Tan, Xiaoyue

2017-03-11

Global warming has a marked influence on the life cycle of epidemic vectors as well as their interactions with human beings. The Aedes albopictus mosquito as the vector of dengue fever surged exponentially in the last decade, raising ecological and epistemological concerns of how climate change altered its growth rate and population dynamics. As the global warming pattern is considerably uneven across four seasons, with a confirmed stronger effect in winter, an emerging need arises as to exploring how the seasonal warming effects influence the annual development of Ae. albopictus. The model consolidates a 35-year climate dataset and designs fifteen warming patterns that increase the temperature of selected seasons. Based on a recently developed mechanistic population model of Ae. albopictus, the model simulates the thermal reaction of blood-fed adults by systematically increasing the temperature from 0.5 to 5 °C at an interval of 0.5 °C in each warming pattern. The results show the warming effects are different across seasons. The warming effects in spring and winter facilitate the development of the species by shortening the diapause period. The warming effect in summer is primarily negative by inhibiting mosquito development. The warming effect in autumn is considerably mixed. However, these warming effects cannot carry over to the following year, possibly due to the fact that under the extreme weather in winter the mosquito fully ceases from development and survives in terms of diapause eggs. As the historical pattern of global warming manifests seasonal fluctuations, this study provides corroborating and previously ignored evidence of how such seasonality affects the mosquito development. Understanding this short-term temperature-driven mechanism as one chain of the transmission events is critical to refining the thermal reaction norms of the epidemic vector under global warming as well as developing effective mosquito prevention and control strategies.

Weather conditions promote route flexibility during open ocean crossing in a long-distance migratory raptor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mellone, Ugo; López-López, Pascual; Limiñana, Rubén; Urios, Vicente

2011-07-01

Weather conditions are paramount in shaping birds' migratory routes, promoting the evolution of behavioural plasticity and allowing for adaptive decisions on when to depart or stop during migration. Here, we describe and analyze the influence of weather conditions in shaping the sea-crossing stage of the pre-breeding journey made by a long-distance migratory bird, the Eleonora's falcon ( Falco eleonorae), tracked by satellite telemetry from the wintering grounds in the Southern Hemisphere to the breeding sites in the Northern Hemisphere. As far as we know, the data presented here are the first report of repeated oceanic journeys of the same individuals in consecutive years. Our results show inter-annual variability in the routes followed by Eleonora's falcons when crossing the Strait of Mozambique, between Madagascar and eastern continental Africa. Interestingly, our observations illustrate that individuals show high behavioural plasticity and are able to change their migration route from one year to another in response to weather conditions, thus minimising the risk of long ocean crossing by selecting winds blowing towards Africa for departure and changing the routes to avoid low pressure areas en route. Our results suggest that weather conditions can really act as obstacles during migration, and thus, besides ecological barriers, the migratory behaviour of birds could also be shaped by "meteorological barriers". We briefly discuss orientation mechanisms used for navigation. Since environmental conditions during migration could cause carry-over effects, we consider that forecasting how global changes of weather patterns will shape the behaviour of migratory birds is of the utmost importance.

Evaluating the Large-Scale Environment of Extreme Events Using Reanalyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bosilovich, M. G.; Schubert, S. D.; Koster, R. D.; da Silva, A. M., Jr.; Eichmann, A.

2014-12-01

Extreme conditions and events have always been a long standing concern in weather forecasting and national security. While some evidence indicates extreme weather will increase in global change scenarios, extremes are often related to the large scale atmospheric circulation, but also occurring infrequently. Reanalyses assimilate substantial amounts of weather data and a primary strength of reanalysis data is the representation of the large-scale atmospheric environment. In this effort, we link the occurrences of extreme events or climate indicators to the underlying regional and global weather patterns. Now, with greater than 3o years of data, reanalyses can include multiple cases of extreme events, and thereby identify commonality among the weather to better characterize the large-scale to global environment linked to the indicator or extreme event. Since these features are certainly regionally dependent, and also, the indicators of climate are continually being developed, we outline various methods to analyze the reanalysis data and the development of tools to support regional evaluation of the data. Here, we provide some examples of both individual case studies and composite studies of similar events. For example, we will compare the large scale environment for Northeastern US extreme precipitation with that of highest mean precipitation seasons. Likewise, southerly winds can shown to be a major contributor to very warm days in the Northeast winter. While most of our development has involved NASA's MERRA reanalysis, we are also looking forward to MERRA-2 which includes several new features that greatly improve the representation of weather and climate, especially for the regions and sectors involved in the National Climate Assessment.

NOAA research finds new way to identify which El Niño events will have

Science.gov Websites

atmospheric El Niño signal that is very strongly associated with U.S. winter weather impacts. Download here weather impacts. Ed Harrison, Ph.D. of the NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory in Seattle and University of Washington, co-authored the paper. "When it comes to El Niño's weather impacts, we are

The Effects of Weather Factors on Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in Beijing.

PubMed

Dong, Weihua; Li, Xian'en; Yang, Peng; Liao, Hua; Wang, Xiaoli; Wang, Quanyi

2016-01-12

The morbidity and mortality of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) are increasing in Beijing, China. Previous studies have indicated an association between incidents of HFMD and weather factors. However, the seasonal influence of these factors on the disease is not yet understood, and their relationship with the enterovirus 71 (EV71) and Coxsackie virus A16 (CV-A16) viruses are not well documented. We analysed 84,502 HFMD cases from 2008 to 2011 in Beijing to explore the seasonal influence of weather factors (average temperature [AT], average relative humidity [ARH], total precipitation [TP] and average wind speed [AWS]) on incidents of HFMD by using a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. The results indicated that weather factors differ significantly in their influence on HFMD depending on the season. AT had the greatest effect among the four weather factors, and while the influence of AT and AWS was greater in the summer than in the winter, the influence of TP was positive in the summer and negative in the winter. ARH was negatively correlated with HFMD. Also, we observed more EV71-associated cases than CV-A16 but there is no convincing evidence to show significant differences between the influences of the weather factors on EV71 and CV-A16.

The Effects of Weather Factors on Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in Beijing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Weihua; Li, Xian'En; Yang, Peng; Liao, Hua; Wang, Xiaoli; Wang, Quanyi

2016-01-01

The morbidity and mortality of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) are increasing in Beijing, China. Previous studies have indicated an association between incidents of HFMD and weather factors. However, the seasonal influence of these factors on the disease is not yet understood, and their relationship with the enterovirus 71 (EV71) and Coxsackie virus A16 (CV-A16) viruses are not well documented. We analysed 84,502 HFMD cases from 2008 to 2011 in Beijing to explore the seasonal influence of weather factors (average temperature [AT], average relative humidity [ARH], total precipitation [TP] and average wind speed [AWS]) on incidents of HFMD by using a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. The results indicated that weather factors differ significantly in their influence on HFMD depending on the season. AT had the greatest effect among the four weather factors, and while the influence of AT and AWS was greater in the summer than in the winter, the influence of TP was positive in the summer and negative in the winter. ARH was negatively correlated with HFMD. Also, we observed more EV71-associated cases than CV-A16 but there is no convincing evidence to show significant differences between the influences of the weather factors on EV71 and CV-A16.

The Effects of Weather Factors on Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in Beijing

PubMed Central

Dong, Weihua; Li, Xian’en; Yang, Peng; Liao, Hua; Wang, Xiaoli; Wang, Quanyi

2016-01-01

The morbidity and mortality of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) are increasing in Beijing, China. Previous studies have indicated an association between incidents of HFMD and weather factors. However, the seasonal influence of these factors on the disease is not yet understood, and their relationship with the enterovirus 71 (EV71) and Coxsackie virus A16 (CV-A16) viruses are not well documented. We analysed 84,502 HFMD cases from 2008 to 2011 in Beijing to explore the seasonal influence of weather factors (average temperature [AT], average relative humidity [ARH], total precipitation [TP] and average wind speed [AWS]) on incidents of HFMD by using a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. The results indicated that weather factors differ significantly in their influence on HFMD depending on the season. AT had the greatest effect among the four weather factors, and while the influence of AT and AWS was greater in the summer than in the winter, the influence of TP was positive in the summer and negative in the winter. ARH was negatively correlated with HFMD. Also, we observed more EV71-associated cases than CV-A16 but there is no convincing evidence to show significant differences between the influences of the weather factors on EV71 and CV-A16. PMID:26755102

An industry perspective on the use of seasonal forecasts and weather information for evaluating sensitivities in traded commodity supply chains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Domeisen, Daniela; Slavov, Georgi

2015-04-01

Weather information on seasonal timescales is crucial to various end users, from the level of subsistence farming to the government level. Also the financial industry is ever more aware of and interested in the benefits that early and correctly interpreted forecast information provides. Straight forward and often cited applications include the estimation of rainfall and temperature anomalies for drought - prone agricultural areas producing traded commodities, as well as some of the rather direct impacts of weather on energy production. Governments, weather services, as well as both academia and private companies are working on tailoring climate and weather information to a growing number of customers. However, also other large markets, such as coal, iron ore, and gas, are crucially dependent on seasonal weather information and forecasts, while the needs are again very dependent on the direction of the predicted signal. So far, relatively few providers in climate services address these industries. All of these commodities show a strong seasonal and weather dependence, and an unusual winter or summer can crucially impact their demand and supply. To name a few impacts, gas is crucially driven by heating demand, iron ore excavation is dependent on the available water resources, and coal mining is dependent on winter temperatures and rainfall. This contribution will illustrate and provide an inside view of the type of climate and weather information needed for the various large commodity industries.

A new precipitation and drought climatology based on weather patterns.

PubMed

Richardson, Douglas; Fowler, Hayley J; Kilsby, Christopher G; Neal, Robert

2018-02-01

Weather-pattern, or weather-type, classifications are a valuable tool in many applications as they characterize the broad-scale atmospheric circulation over a given region. This study analyses the aspects of regional UK precipitation and meteorological drought climatology with respect to a new set of objectively defined weather patterns. These new patterns are currently being used by the Met Office in several probabilistic forecasting applications driven by ensemble forecasting systems. Weather pattern definitions and daily occurrences are mapped to Lamb weather types (LWTs), and parallels between the two classifications are drawn. Daily precipitation distributions are associated with each weather pattern and LWT. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and drought severity index (DSI) series are calculated for a range of aggregation periods and seasons. Monthly weather-pattern frequency anomalies are calculated for SPI wet and dry periods and for the 5% most intense DSI-based drought months. The new weather-pattern definitions and daily occurrences largely agree with their respective LWTs, allowing comparison between the two classifications. There is also broad agreement between weather pattern and LWT changes in frequencies. The new data set is shown to be adequate for precipitation-based analyses in the UK, although a smaller set of clustered weather patterns is not. Furthermore, intra-pattern precipitation variability is lower in the new classification compared to the LWTs, which is an advantage in this context. Six of the new weather patterns are associated with drought over the entire UK, with several other patterns linked to regional drought. It is demonstrated that the new data set of weather patterns offers a new opportunity for classification-based analyses in the UK.

Snow cover and snowfall impact corticosterone and immunoglobulin a levels in a threatened steppe bird.

PubMed

Liu, Gang; Hu, Xiaolong; Kessler, Aimee Elizabeth; Gong, Minghao; Wang, Yihua; Li, Huixin; Dong, Yuqiu; Yang, Yuhui; Li, Linhai

2018-05-15

Birds use both the corticosterone stress response and immune system to meet physiological challenges during exposure to adverse climatic conditions. To assess the stress level and immune response of the Asian Great Bustard during conditions of severe winter weather, we measured fecal corticosterone (CORT) and Immunoglobulin A (IgA) before and after snowfall in a low snow cover year (2014) and a high snow cover year (2015). A total of 239 fecal samples were gathered from individuals in Tumuji Nature Reserve, located in eastern Inner Mongolia, China. We observed high CORT levels that rose further after snowfall both in high and low snow cover years. IgA levels increased significantly after snowfall in the low snow cover year, but decreased after snowfall in the high snow cover year. These results suggest that overwintering Asian Great Bustards are subjected to climatic stress during severe winter weather, and the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis and immune system react to this challenge. Extreme levels of stress, such as snowfall in already prolonged and high snow cover conditions may decrease immune function. Supplemental feeding should be considered under severe winter weather conditions for this endangered subspecies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Satellite Video Shows Movement of Major U.S. Winter Storm

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-02-12

View a video of the storm here: bit.ly/1m9aJFY This visible image of the winter storm over the U.S. south and East Coast was taken by NOAA's GOES-13 satellite on Feb. 12 at 1855 UTC/1:55 p.m. EST. Snow covered ground can be seen over the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley. On February 12 at 10 a.m. EST, NOAA's National Weather Service or NWS continued to issue watches and warnings from Texas to New England. Specifically, NWS cited Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories were in effect from eastern Texas eastward across the interior section of southeastern U.S. states and across much of the eastern seaboard including the Appalachians. Winter storm watches are in effect for portions of northern New England as well as along the western slopes of northern and central Appalachians. For updates on local forecasts, watches and warnings, visit NOAA's www.weather.gov webpage. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center or WPC noted the storm is expected to bring "freezing rain spreading into the Carolinas, significant snow accumulations are expected in the interior Mid-Atlantic states tonight into Thursday and ice storm warnings and freezing rain advisories are in effect across much of central Georgia. GOES satellites provide the kind of continuous monitoring necessary for intensive data analysis. Geostationary describes an orbit in which a satellite is always in the same position with respect to the rotating Earth. This allows GOES to hover continuously over one position on Earth's surface, appearing stationary. As a result, GOES provide a constant vigil for the atmospheric "triggers" for severe weather conditions such as tornadoes, flash floods, hail storms and hurricanes. For updated information about the storm system, visit NOAA's WPC website; www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ For more information about GOES satellites, visit: www.goes.noaa.gov/ or goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/ Rob Gutro NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center Credit: NOAA/NASA GOES Project NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Assessment of Climate Change and Freshwater Ecosystems of the Rocky Mountains, USA and Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hauer, F. Richard; Baron, Jill S.; Campbell, Donald H.; Fausch, Kurt D.; Hostetler, Steve W.; Leavesley, George H.; Leavitt, Peter R.; McKnight, Diane M.; Stanford, Jack A.

1997-06-01

The Rocky Mountains in the USA and Canada encompass the interior cordillera of western North America, from the southern Yukon to northern New Mexico. Annual weather patterns are cold in winter and mild in summer. Precipitation has high seasonal and interannual variation and may differ by an order of magnitude between geographically close locales, depending on slope, aspect and local climatic and orographic conditions. The region's hydrology is characterized by the accumulation of winter snow, spring snowmelt and autumnal baseflows. During the 2-3-month spring runoff period, rivers frequently discharge > 70% of their annual water budget and have instantaneous discharges 10-100 times mean low flow.Complex weather patterns characterized by high spatial and temporal variability make predictions of future conditions tenuous. However, general patterns are identifiable; northern and western portions of the region are dominated by maritime weather patterns from the North Pacific, central areas and eastern slopes are dominated by continental air masses and southern portions receive seasonally variable atmospheric circulation from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. Significant interannual variations occur in these general patterns, possibly related to ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) forcing.Changes in precipitation and temperature regimes or patterns have significant potential effects on the distribution and abundance of plants and animals. For example, elevation of the timber-line is principally a function of temperature. Palaeolimnological investigations have shown significant shifts in phyto- and zoo-plankton populations as alpine lakes shift between being above or below the timber-line. Likewise, streamside vegetation has a significant effect on stream ecosystem structure and function. Changes in stream temperature regimes result in significant changes in community composition as a consequence of bioenergetic factors. Stenothermic species could be extirpated as appropriate thermal criteria disappear. Warming temperatures may geographically isolate cold water stream fishes in increasingly confined headwaters. The heat budgets of large lakes may be affected resulting in a change of state between dimictic and warm monomictic character. Uncertainties associated with prediction are increased by the planting of fish in historically fishless, high mountain lakes and the introduction of non-native species of fishes and invertebrates into often previously simple food-webs of large valley bottom lakes and streams. Many of the streams and rivers suffer from the anthropogenic effects of abstraction and regulation. Likewise, many of the large lakes receive nutrient loads from a growing human population.We concluded that: (1) regional climate models are required to resolve adequately the complexities of the high gradient landscapes; (2) extensive wilderness preserves and national park lands, so prevalent in the Rocky Mountain Region, provide sensitive areas for differentiation of anthropogenic effects from climate effects; and (3) future research should encompass both short-term intensive studies and long-term monitoring studies developed within comprehensive experimental arrays of streams and lakes specifically designed to address the issue of anthropogenic versus climatic effects.

Assessment of climate change and freshwater ecosystems of the Rocky Mountains, USA and Canada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hauer, F. Richard; Baron, Jill S.; Campbell, D.H.; Fausch, K.D.; Hostetler, S.W.; Leavesley, G.H.; Leavitt, P.R.; McKnight, Diane M.; Stanford, J.A.

1997-01-01

The Rocky Mountains in the USA and Canada encompass the interior cordillera of western North America, from the southern Yukon to northern New Mexico. Annual weather patterns are cold in winter and mild in summer. Precipitation has high seasonal and interannual variation and may differ by an order of magnitude between geographically close locales, depending on slope, aspect and local climatic and orographic conditions. The region's hydrology is characterized by the accumulation of winter snow, spring snowmelt and autumnal baseflows. During the 2-3-month 'spring runoff' period, rivers frequently discharge >70% of their annual water budget and have instantaneous discharges 10-100 times mean low flow. Complex weather patterns characterized by high spatial and temporal variability make predictions of future conditions tenuous. However, general patterns are identifiable; northern and western portions of the region are dominated by maritime weather patterns from the North Pacific, central areas and eastern slopes are dominated by continental air masses and southern portions receive seasonally variable atmospheric circulation from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. Significant interannual variations occur in these general patterns, possibly related to ENSO (El Nin??o-Southern Oscillation) forcing. Changes in precipitation and temperature regimes or patterns have significant potential effects on the distribution and abundance of plants and animals. For example, elevation of the timber-line is principally a function of temperature. Palaeolimnological investigations have shown significant shifts in phyto- and zoo-plankton populations as alpine lakes shift between being above or below the timber-line. Likewise, streamside vegetation has a significant effect on stream ecosystem structure and function. Changes in stream temperature regimes result in significant changes in community composition as a consequence of bioenergetic factors. Stenothermic species could be extirpated as appropriate thermal criteria disappear. Warming temperatures may geographically isolate cole water stream fishes in increasingly confined headwaters. The heat budgets of large lakes may be affected resulting in a change of state between dimictic and warm monomictic character. Uncertainties associated with prediction are increased by the planting of fish in historically fishless, high mountain lakes and the introduction of non-native species of fishes and invertebrates into often previously simple food-webs of large valley bottom lakes and streams. Many of the streams and rivers suffer from the anthropogenic effects of abstraction and regulation. Likewise, many of the large lakes receive nutrient loads from a growing human population. We concluded that: (1) regional climate models are required to resolve adequately the complexities of the high gradient landscapes; (2) extensive wilderness preserves and national park lands, so prevalent in the Rocky Mountain Region, provide sensitive areas for differentiation of anthropogenic effects from climate effects; and (3) future research should encompass both short-term intensive studies and long-term monitoring studies developed within comprehensive experimental arrays of streams and lakes specifically designed to address the issue of anthropogenic versus climatic effects. ?? 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Gray Wolves as Climate Change Buffers in Yellowstone

PubMed Central

Getz, Wayne M

2005-01-01

Understanding the mechanisms by which climate and predation patterns by top predators co-vary to affect community structure accrues added importance as humans exert growing influence over both climate and regional predator assemblages. In Yellowstone National Park, winter conditions and reintroduced gray wolves (Canis lupus) together determine the availability of winter carrion on which numerous scavenger species depend for survival and reproduction. As climate changes in Yellowstone, therefore, scavenger species may experience a dramatic reshuffling of food resources. As such, we analyzed 55 y of weather data from Yellowstone in order to determine trends in winter conditions. We found that winters are getting shorter, as measured by the number of days with snow on the ground, due to decreased snowfall and increased number of days with temperatures above freezing. To investigate synergistic effects of human and climatic alterations of species interactions, we used an empirically derived model to show that in the absence of wolves, early snow thaw leads to a substantial reduction in late-winter carrion, causing potential food bottlenecks for scavengers. In addition, by narrowing the window of time over which carrion is available and thereby creating a resource pulse, climate change likely favors scavengers that can quickly track food sources over great distances. Wolves, however, largely mitigate late-winter reduction in carrion due to earlier snow thaws. By buffering the effects of climate change on carrion availability, wolves allow scavengers to adapt to a changing environment over a longer time scale more commensurate with natural processes. This study illustrates the importance of restoring and maintaining intact food chains in the face of large-scale environmental perturbations such as climate change. PMID:15757363

Gray wolves as climate change buffers in Yellowstone.

PubMed

Wilmers, Christopher C; Getz, Wayne M

2005-04-01

Understanding the mechanisms by which climate and predation patterns by top predators co-vary to affect community structure accrues added importance as humans exert growing influence over both climate and regional predator assemblages. In Yellowstone National Park, winter conditions and reintroduced gray wolves (Canis lupus) together determine the availability of winter carrion on which numerous scavenger species depend for survival and reproduction. As climate changes in Yellowstone, therefore, scavenger species may experience a dramatic reshuffling of food resources. As such, we analyzed 55 y of weather data from Yellowstone in order to determine trends in winter conditions. We found that winters are getting shorter, as measured by the number of days with snow on the ground, due to decreased snowfall and increased number of days with temperatures above freezing. To investigate synergistic effects of human and climatic alterations of species interactions, we used an empirically derived model to show that in the absence of wolves, early snow thaw leads to a substantial reduction in late-winter carrion, causing potential food bottlenecks for scavengers. In addition, by narrowing the window of time over which carrion is available and thereby creating a resource pulse, climate change likely favors scavengers that can quickly track food sources over great distances. Wolves, however, largely mitigate late-winter reduction in carrion due to earlier snow thaws. By buffering the effects of climate change on carrion availability, wolves allow scavengers to adapt to a changing environment over a longer time scale more commensurate with natural processes. This study illustrates the importance of restoring and maintaining intact food chains in the face of large-scale environmental perturbations such as climate change.

Weather Effects on Crop Diseases in Eastern Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conradt, Tobias

2017-04-01

Since the 1970s there are several long-term monitoring programmes for plant diseases and pests in Germany. Within the framework of a national research project, some otherwise confidential databases comprising 77 111 samples from numerous sites accross Eastern Germany could be accessed and analysed. The pest data covered leaf rust (Puccinia triticina) and powdery mildew (Blumeria graminis) in winter wheat, aphids (Aphididae, four genera) on wheat and other cereal crops, late blight (Phytophthora infestans) in potatoes, and pollen beetles (Brassicogethes aeneus) on rape. These data were complemented by daily weather observations from the German Weather Service (DWD). In a first step, Pearson correlations between weather variables and pest frequencies were calculated for seasonal time periods of different start months and durations and ordered into so-called correlograms. This revealed principal weather effects on disease spread - e. g. that wind is favourable for mildew throughout the year or that rape pollen beetles like it warm, but not during wintertime. Secondly, the pest frequency samples were found to resemble gamma distributions, and a generalised linear model was fitted to describe their parameter shift depending on end-of-winter temperatures for aphids on cereals. The method clearly shows potential for systematic pest risk assessments regarding climate change.

Nowcasting in the FROST-2014 Sochi Olympic project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bica, Benedikt; Wang, Yong; Joe, Paul; Isaac, George; Kiktev, Dmitry; Bocharnikov, Nikolai

2013-04-01

FROST (Forecast and Research: the Olympic Sochi Testbed) 2014 is a WMO WWRP international project aimed at development, implementation, and demonstration of capabilities of short-range numerical weather prediction and nowcasting technologies for mountainous terrain in winter season. Sharp weather contrasts and high spatial and temporal variability are typical for the region of the Sochi-2014 Olympics. Steep mountainous terrain and an intricate mixture of maritime sub-tropical and Alpine environments make weather forecasting in this region extremely challenging. Goals of the FROST-2014 project: • To develop a comprehensive information resource of Alpine winter weather observations; • To improve and exploit: o Nowcasting systems of high impact weather phenomena (precipitation type and intensity, snow levels, visibility, wind speed, direction and gusts) in complex terrain; o High-resolution deterministic and ensemble mesoscale forecasts in winter complex terrain environment; • To improve the understanding of physics of high impact weather phenomena in the region; • To deliver forecasts (Nowcasts) to Olympic weather forecasters and decision makers and assess benefits of forecast improvement. 46 Automatic Meteorological Stations (AMS) were installed in the Olympic region by Roshydromet, by owners of sport venues and by the Megafon corporation, provider of mobile communication services. The time resolution of AMS observations does not exceed 10 minutes. For a subset of the stations it is even equal to 1 min. Data flow from the new dual polarization Doppler weather radar WRM200 in Sochi was organized at the end of 2012. Temperature/humidity and wind profilers and two Micro Rain Radars (MRR) will supplement the network. Nowcasting potential of NWP models participating in the project (COSMO, GEM, WRF, AROME, HARMONIE) is to be assessed for direct and post-processed (e.g. Kalman filter, 1-D model, MOS) model forecasts. Besides the meso-scale models, the specialized nowcasting systems are expected to be used in the project - ABOM, CARDS, INCA, INTW, STEPS, MeteoExpert. FROST-2014 is intended as an 'end-to-end' project. Its products will be used by local forecasters for meteorological support of the Olympics and preceding test sport events. The project is open for new interested participants. Additional information is available at http://frost2014.meteoinfo.ru.

A new precipitation and meteorological drought climatology based on weather patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, D.; Fowler, H. J.; Kilsby, C. G.; Neal, R.

2017-12-01

Weather-pattern, or weather-type, classifications are a valuable tool in many applications as they characterise the broad-scale atmospheric circulation over a given region. An analysis of regional UK precipitation and meteorological drought climatology with respect to a set of objectively defined weather patterns is presented. This classification system, introduced last year, is currently being used by the Met Office in several probabilistic forecasting applications driven by ensemble forecasting systems. The classification consists of 30 daily patterns derived from North Atlantic Ocean and European mean sea level pressure data. Clustering these 30 patterns yields another set of eight patterns that are intended for use in longer-range applications. Weather pattern definitions and daily occurrences are mapped to the commonly-used Lamb Weather Types (LWTs), and parallels between the two classifications are drawn. Daily precipitation distributions are associated with each weather pattern and LWT. Drought index series are calculated for a range of aggregation periods and seasons. Monthly weather-pattern frequency anomalies are calculated for different drought index thresholds, representing dry, wet and drought conditions. The set of 30 weather patterns is shown to be adequate for precipitation-based analyses in the UK, although the smaller set of clustered patterns is not. Furthermore, intra-pattern precipitation variability is lower in the new classification compared to the LWTs, which is an advantage in the context of precipitation studies. Weather patterns associated with drought over the different UK regions are identified. This has potential forecasting application - if a model (e.g. a global seasonal forecast model) can predict weather pattern occurrences then regional drought outlooks may be derived from the forecasted weather patterns.

2012/13 abnormal cold winter in Japan associated with Large-scale Atmospheric Circulation and Local Sea Surface Temperature over the Sea of Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ando, Y.; Ogi, M.; Tachibana, Y.

2013-12-01

On Japan, wintertime cold wave has social, economic, psychological and political impacts because of the lack of atomic power stations in the era of post Fukushima world. The colder winter is the more electricity is needed. Wintertime weather of Japan and its prediction has come under the world spotlight. The winter of 2012/13 in Japan was abnormally cold, and such a cold winter has persisted for 3 years. Wintertime climate of Japan is governed by some dominant modes of the large-scale atmospheric circulations. Yasunaka and Hanawa (2008) demonstrated that the two dominant modes - Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Western Pacific (WP) pattern - account for about 65% of the interannual variation of the wintertime mean surface air temperature of Japan. A negative AO brings about cold winter in Japan. In addition, a negative WP also brings about cold winter in Japan. Looking back to the winter of 2012/13, both the negative AO and negative WP continued from October through December. If the previous studies were correct, it would have been extremely very cold from October through December. In fact, in December, in accordance with previous studies, it was colder than normal. Contrary to the expectation, in October and November, it was, however, warmer than normal. This discrepancy signifies that an additional hidden circumstance that heats Japan overwhelms these large-scale atmospheric circulations that cool Japan. In this study, we therefore seek an additional cause of wintertime climate of Japan particularly focusing 2012 as well as the AO and WP. We found that anomalously warm oceanic temperature surrounding Japan overwhelmed influences of the AO or WP. Unlike the inland climate, the island climate can be strongly influenced by surrounding ocean temperature, suggesting that large-scale atmospheric patterns alone do not determine the climate of islands. (a) Time series of a 5-day running mean AO index (blue) as defined by Ogi et al., (2004), who called it the SVNAM index. For reference, the conventional AO index is shown by the gray line. (b) a 5-day running mean WP index, (c) area-averaged Surface Air Temperature anomalies in Japan, (d) Air Temperature anomalies, (e) heat flux anomalies, and (f) Sea Surface Temperature anomalies. The boxed area on the Sea of Japan indicates the area in which the (d)-(f) indexes were calculated.

76 FR 74018 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Designation of Critical Habitat for the Southern...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-30

... ecotypes of woodland caribou: Mountain (alpine; arboreal lichen winter feeding group), northern (lives in... in that estimate due to poor weather conditions that limited aerial surveys (Wakkinen 2011, pers... forests (generally more than 100-150 years old), which support abundant arboreal lichens (the key winter...

Evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model for Simulating Winter Ozone Formation in the Uinta Basin.

EPA Science Inventory

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) models were used to simulate a 10 day high‐ozone episode observed during the 2013 Uinta Basin Winter Ozone Study (UBWOS). The baseline model had a large negative bias when compared to ozo...

Influence of sudden stratospheric warming and quasi biennial oscillation on western disturbance over north India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Remya, R.; Kottayil, Ajil; Mohanakumar, K.

2017-07-01

This study demonstrates the variability in Western Disturbance during the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) period and its eventual influence on the north Indian weather pattern. The modulations in the north Indian winter under the two phases of the Quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) during SSW periods are also examined. The analysis has been carried out by using the ERA interim reanalysis dataset for different pressure levels in the stratosphere and upper troposphere during the time period of 1980-2010. The daily minimum surface temperature data published by India Meteorological Department from 1969 to 2013 has been used for the analysis of temperature anomaly over north India during SSW. The period of intense stratospheric warming witnesses a downward propagation and intensification of kinetic energy from stratosphere to upper troposphere over the Mediterranean and Caspian Sea. When QBO is in easterly phase, the cooling over north India is much larger when compared to the westerly phase during instances of SSW. SSW coincident with the easterly phase of QBO causes an intensified subtropical jet over the mid-latitude regions. The modulation in circulation pattern in stratosphere and upper troposphere when ENSO occurs during SSW period is also analysed separately. This study provides the link among SSW, Western Disturbances and the north Indian cooling during winter season.

The stable isotope amount effect: New insights from NEXRAD echo tops, Luquillo Mountains, Puerto Rico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scholl, Martha A.; Shanley, James B.; Zegarra, Jan Paul; Coplen, Tyler B.

2009-01-01

The stable isotope amount effect has often been invoked to explain patterns of isotopic composition of rainfall in the tropics. This paper describes a new approach, correlating the isotopic composition of precipitation with cloud height and atmospheric temperature using NEXRAD radar echo tops, which are a measure of the maximum altitude of rainfall within the clouds. The seasonal differences in echo top altitudes and their corresponding temperatures are correlated with the isotopic composition of rainfall. These results offer another factor to consider in interpretation of the seasonal variation in isotopic composition of tropical rainfall, which has previously been linked to amount or rainout effects and not to temperature effects. Rain and cloud water isotope collectors in the Luquillo Mountains in northeastern Puerto Rico were sampled monthly for three years and precipitation was analyzed for δ18O and δ2H. Precipitation enriched in 18O and 2H occurred during the winter dry season (approximately December–May) and was associated with a weather pattern of trade wind showers and frontal systems. During the summer rainy season (approximately June–November), precipitation was depleted in 18O and 2H and originated in low pressure systems and convection associated with waves embedded in the prevailing easterly airflow. Rain substantially depleted in 18O and 2H compared to the aforementioned weather patterns occurred during large low pressure systems. Weather analysis showed that 29% of rain input to the Luquillo Mountains was trade wind orographic rainfall, and 30% of rainfall could be attributed to easterly waves and low pressure systems. Isotopic signatures associated with these major climate patterns can be used to determine their influence on streamflow and groundwater recharge and to monitor possible effects of climate change on regional water resources.

Barriers to wheelchair use in the winter.

PubMed

Ripat, Jacquie D; Brown, Cara L; Ethans, Karen D

2015-06-01

To test the hypothesis that challenges to community participation posed by winter weather are greater for individuals who use scooters, manual and power wheelchairs (wheeled mobility devices [WMDs]) than for the general ambulatory population, and to determine what WMD users identify as the most salient environmental barriers to community participation during the winter. Cross-sectional survey organized around 5 environmental domains: technological, natural, physical, social/attitudinal, and policy. Urban community in Canada. Convenience sample of WMD users or their proxy (N=99). Not applicable. Not applicable. Forty-two percent identified reduced outing frequency in winter months, associated with increased age (χ(3)=6.4, P=.04), lack of access to family/friends for transportation (χ(2)=8.1, P=.04), and primary type of WMD used in the winter (scooter χ(2)=8.8, P=.003). Most reported tires/casters becoming stuck in the snow (95%) or slipping on the ice (91%), difficulty ascending inclines/ramps (92%), and cold hands while using controls or pushing rims (85%); fewer identified frozen wheelchair/scooter batteries, seat cushions/backrests, or electronics. Sidewalks/roads were reported to be problematic by 99%. Eighty percent reported needing additional help in the winter. Limited community access in winter led to a sense of loneliness/isolation, and fear/anxiety related to safety. Respondents identified policies that limited participation during winter. People who use WMDs decrease their community participation in cold weather because of multiple environmental barriers. Clinicians, researchers, and policymakers can take a multidimensional approach to mitigate these barriers in order to enhance community participation by WMD users in winter. Copyright © 2015 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Nonlinear effects of climate and density in the dynamics of a fluctuating population of reindeer.

PubMed

Tyler, Nicholas J C; Forchhammer, Mads C; Øritsland, Nils Are

2008-06-01

Nonlinear and irregular population dynamics may arise as a result of phase dependence and coexistence of multiple attractors. Here we explore effects of climate and density in the dynamics of a highly fluctuating population of wild reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) on Svalbard observed over a period of 29 years. Time series analyses revealed that density dependence and the effects of local climate (measured as the degree of ablation [melting] of snow during winter) on numbers were both highly nonlinear: direct negative density dependence was found when the population was growing (Rt > 0) and during phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) characterized by winters with generally high (1979-1995) and low (1996-2007) indices, respectively. A growth-phase-dependent model explained the dynamics of the population best and revealed the influence of density-independent processes on numbers that a linear autoregressive model missed altogether. In particular, the abundance of reindeer was enhanced by ablation during phases of growth (Rt > 0), an observation that contrasts with the view that periods of mild weather in winter are normally deleterious for reindeer owing to icing of the snowpack. Analyses of vital rates corroborated the nonlinearity described in the population time series and showed that both starvation mortality in winter and fecundity were nonlinearly related to fluctuations in density and the level of ablation. The erratic pattern of growth of the population of reindeer in Adventdalen seems, therefore, to result from a combination of the effects of nonlinear density dependence, strong density-dependent mortality, and variable density independence related to ablation in winter.

Estimated winter wheat yield from crop growth predicted by LANDSAT

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kanemasu, E. T.

1977-01-01

An evapotranspiration and growth model for winter wheat is reported. The inputs are daily solar radiation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation/irrigation and leaf area index. The meteorological data were obtained from National Weather Service while LAI was obtained from LANDSAT multispectral scanner. The output provides daily estimates of potential evapotranspiration, transpiration, evaporation, soil moisture (50 cm depth), percentage depletion, net photosynthesis and dry matter production. Winter wheat yields are correlated with transpiration and dry matter accumulation.

Design, fabrication, and implementation of thermally driven outdoor testing devices for building joint sealants.

PubMed

White, C C; Tan, K T; O'Brien, E P; Hunston, D L; Chin, J W; Williams, R S

2011-02-01

The paper describes the development, implementation, and testing of two thermally driven outdoor exposure instruments. These devices are unique in their ability to impose field generated thermally induced strain on sealant specimens while monitoring their resulting load and displacement. The instruments combine a fixed wood and steel supporting frame with a moving polyvinyl chloride frame, and employ differences in the coefficients of thermal expansion between the supporting frame and moving frame to induce strain on the sealant specimens. Two different kinds of instruments have been fabricated, "winter/tension" and "winter/compression" designs. In the winter/tension design, the thermally induced dimensional change is directly transferred to the specimens; while in the winter/compression design, the samples are loaded in an opposite direction with the dimensional change. Both designs are instrumented to monitor load and displacement and are built so that the strain on the specimen does not exceed ±25% over the range of temperatures expected in Gaithersburg, MD. Additionally, a weather station is colocated with the device to record environmental conditions in 1 min intervals. This combination of weather information with mechanical property data enables a direct link between environmental conditions and the corresponding sealant response. The reliability and effectiveness of these instruments are demonstrated with a typical sealant material. The results show that the instruments work according to the design criteria and provide a meaningful quantitative platform to monitor the mechanical response of sealant exposed to outdoor weathering.

The influence of weather on fibrinolysis and fibrinogenolysis. [in human body

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marchenko, V. I.

1974-01-01

Analysis of fibrinolysis and fibrinogenolysis indices by month showed an increase in the activity of these processes from winter to summer (1967-1968). At all seasons of the year, fibrinolysis and fibrinogenolysis increase during weather of the cyclonic type with passage of fronts and sharp fluctuations in meteorological factors in the atmosphere.

Wintertime component of the THORPEX Pacific-Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Y.; Toth, Z.; Asuma, Y.; Reynolds, C.; Lngland, R.; Szunyogh, I.; Colle, B.; Chang, E.; Doyle, C.; Kats, A.

2009-04-01

The winter component of the T-PARC is an international field project that aims at improving high impact weather event forecasts for North America. The main objective is to understand how perturbations from the tropics, Eurasia and polar fronts travel through waveguide and turn into high impact weather events. Through adaptive observations by using manned aircrafts (NOAA G-IV and US Air force C-130s) and Russian rawinsonde network over data sparse regions, it is expected that accurate initial conditions will improve the numerical weather forecasts. Non-adaptive aircraft measurements over the Pacific Rim and part of India are also deployed through E-AMDAR program, which is expected to improve the background field over Asia where perturbations are initiated. The campaign is led by NOAA and joined by agencies and universities from US, Canada, Mexico, Japan, ECWMF, and Russia. While most observational data will be assimilated by operational centers to improve real time numerical weather predictions, post field studies will focus on aspects such as: data impact on forecast and analysis, dry and moist processes that affect the formation and propagation of perturbations, meso-scale storm structure, error growth, forecast "busts" under certain atmospheric regimes, and socio-economic applications such as costs and benefits of improved forecasts and their use by the public for high impact weather events. In particular, a Winter Olympics demonstration project (February 12 - February 28) is expected to be a test bed during winter T-PARC for real user outreach and application purposes. Effectiveness of existing targeting methods as well as new targeting methods in the 3-5 day lead time range will be pursued and other aspects related to data assimilation and numerical forecasts (both deterministic and ensemble forecasts) will be investigated within this project as well.

Evaluating sub-seasonal skill in probabilistic forecasts of Atmospheric Rivers and associated extreme events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Subramanian, A. C.; Lavers, D.; Matsueda, M.; Shukla, S.; Cayan, D. R.; Ralph, M.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) - elongated plumes of intense moisture transport - are a primary source of hydrological extremes, water resources and impactful weather along the West Coast of North America and Europe. There is strong demand in the water management, societal infrastructure and humanitarian sectors for reliable sub-seasonal forecasts, particularly of extreme events, such as floods and droughts so that actions to mitigate disastrous impacts can be taken with sufficient lead-time. Many recent studies have shown that ARs in the Pacific and the Atlantic are modulated by large-scale modes of climate variability. Leveraging the improved understanding of how these large-scale climate modes modulate the ARs in these two basins, we use the state-of-the-art multi-model forecast systems such as the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) database to help inform and assess the probabilistic prediction of ARs and related extreme weather events over the North American and European West Coasts. We will present results from evaluating probabilistic forecasts of extreme precipitation and AR activity at the sub-seasonal scale. In particular, results from the comparison of two winters (2015-16 and 2016-17) will be shown, winters which defied canonical El Niño teleconnection patterns over North America and Europe. We further extend this study to analyze probabilistic forecast skill of AR events in these two basins and the variability in forecast skill during certain regimes of large-scale climate modes.

Applying an orographic precipitation model to improve mass balance modeling of the Juneau Icefield, AK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roth, A. C.; Hock, R.; Schuler, T.; Bieniek, P.; Aschwanden, A.

2017-12-01

Mass loss from glaciers in Southeast Alaska is expected to alter downstream ecological systems as runoff patterns change. To investigate these potential changes under future climate scenarios, distributed glacier mass balance modeling is required. However, the spatial resolution gap between global or regional climate models and the requirements for glacier mass balance modeling studies must be addressed first. We have used a linear theory of orographic precipitation model to downscale precipitation from both the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and ERA-Interim to the Juneau Icefield region over the period 1979-2013. This implementation of the LT model is a unique parameterization that relies on the specification of snow fall speed and rain fall speed as tuning parameters to calculate the cloud time delay, τ. We assessed the LT model results by considering winter precipitation so the effect of melt was minimized. The downscaled precipitation pattern produced by the LT model captures the orographic precipitation pattern absent from the coarse resolution WRF and ERA-Interim precipitation fields. Observational data constraints limited our ability to determine a unique parameter combination and calibrate the LT model to glaciological observations. We established a reference run of parameter values based on literature and performed a sensitivity analysis of the LT model parameters, horizontal resolution, and climate input data on the average winter precipitation. The results of the reference run showed reasonable agreement with the available glaciological measurements. The precipitation pattern produced by the LT model was consistent regardless of parameter combination, horizontal resolution, and climate input data, but the precipitation amount varied strongly with these factors. Due to the consistency of the winter precipitation pattern and the uncertainty in precipitation amount, we suggest a precipitation index map approach to be used in combination with a distributed mass balance model for future mass balance modeling studies of the Juneau Icefield. The LT model has potential to be used in other regions in Alaska and elsewhere with strong orographic effects for improved glacier mass balance modeling and/or hydrological modeling.

Evaluation of Hydrometeor Classification for Winter Mixed-Phase Precipitation Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hickman, B.; Troemel, S.; Ryzhkov, A.; Simmer, C.

2016-12-01

Hydrometeor classification algorithms (HCL) typically discriminate radar echoes into several classes including rain (light, medium, heavy), hail, dry snow, wet snow, ice crystals, graupel and rain-hail mixtures. Despite the strength of HCL for precipitation dominated by a single phase - especially warm-season classification - shortcomings exist for mixed-phase precipitation classification. Properly identifying mixed-phase can lead to more accurate precipitation estimates, and better forecasts for aviation weather and ground warnings. Cold season precipitation classification is also highly important due to their potentially high impact on society (e.g. black ice, ice accumulation, snow loads), but due to the varying nature of the hydrometeor - density, dielectric constant, shape - reliable classification via radar alone is not capable. With the addition of thermodynamic information of the atmosphere, either from weather models or sounding data, it has been possible to extend more and more into winter time precipitation events. Yet, inaccuracies still exist in separating more benign (ice pellets) from more the more hazardous (freezing rain) events. We have investigated winter mixed-phase precipitation cases which include freezing rain, ice pellets, and rain-snow transitions from several events in Germany in order to move towards a reliable nowcasting of winter precipitation in hopes to provide faster, more accurate winter time warnings. All events have been confirmed to have the specified precipitation from ground reports. Classification of the events is achieved via a combination of inputs from a bulk microphysics numerical weather prediction model and the German dual-polarimetric C-band radar network, into a 1D spectral bin microphysical model (SBC) which explicitly treats the processes of melting, refreezing, and ice nucleation to predict four near-surface precipitation types: rain, snow, freezing rain, ice pellets, rain/snow mixture, and freezing rain/pellet mixture. Evaluation of the classification is performed by means of disdrometer data, in-situ ground observations, and eye-witness reports from the European Severe Weather Database (ESWD). Additionally, a comparison to an existing radar based HCL is performed as a sanity check and a performance evaluator.

Defining Winter and Identifying Synoptic Air Mass Change in the Northeast and Northern Plains U.S. since 1950

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, C. J.; Pennington, D.; Beitscher, M. R.; Godek, M. L.

2017-12-01

Understanding and forecasting the characteristics of winter weather change in the northern U.S. is vital to regional economy, agriculture, tourism and resident life. This is especially true in the Northeast and Northern Plains where substantial changes to the winter season have already been documented in the atmospheric science and biological literature. As there is no single established definition of `winter', this research attempts to identify the winter season in both regions utilizing a synoptic climatological approach with air mass frequencies. The Spatial Synoptic Classification is used to determine the daily air mass/ weather type conditions since 1950 at 40 locations across the two regions. Annual frequencies are first computed as a baseline reference. Then winter air mass frequencies and departures from normal are calculated to define the season along with the statistical significance. Once the synoptic winter is established, long-term regional changes to the season and significance are explored. As evident global changes have occurred after 1975, an Early period of years prior to 1975 and a Late set for all years following this date are compared. Early and Late record synoptic changes are then examined to assess any thermal and moisture condition changes of the regional winter air masses over time. Cold to moderately dry air masses dominate annually in both regions. Northeast winters are also characterized by cold to moderate dry air masses, with coastal locations experiencing more Moist Polar types. The Northern Plains winters are dominated by cold, dry air masses in the east and cold to moderate dry air masses in the west. Prior to 1975, Northeast winters are defined by an increase in cooler and wetter air masses. Dry Tropical air masses only occur in this region after 1975. Northern Plains winters are also characterized by more cold, dry air masses prior to 1975. More Dry Moderate and Moist Moderate air masses have occurred since 1975. These results demonstrate that Northeast winters have air mass conditions that have become warmer and drier in recent decades. Additionally, Northern Plains winters have air mass setups that have become warmer and more moist since the mid 1970s.

Preference for shelter and additional heat in horses exposed to Nordic winter conditions.

PubMed

Jørgensen, G H M; Aanensen, L; Mejdell, C M; Bøe, K E

2016-11-01

Horses may adapt to a wide range of temperatures and weather conditions. Owners often interfere with this natural thermoregulation ability by clipping and use of blankets. To investigate the effects of different winter weather conditions on shelter seeking behaviour of horses and their preference for additional heat. Observational study in various environments. Mature horses (n = 22) were given a free choice test between staying outdoors, going into a heated shelter compartment or into a nonheated shelter compartment. Horse location and behaviour was scored using instantaneous sampling every minute for 1 h. Each horse was tested once per day and weather factors were continuously recorded by a local weather station. The weather conditions influenced time spent outdoors, ranging from 52% (of all observations) on days with mild temperatures, wind and rain to 88% on days with <0°C and dry weather. Shivering was only observed during mild temperatures and rain/sleet. Small Warmblood horses were observed to select outdoors less (34% of all observations) than small Coldblood horses (80%). We found significant correlations between hair coat sample weight and number of observations outdoors (ρ = 0.23; P = 0.004). Horses selected shelters the most on days with precipitation and horses changed from a nonheated compartment to a heated compartment as weather changed from calm and dry to wet and windy. Horse breed category affected the use of shelter and body condition score and hair coat weight were associated with voluntary shelter selection. © 2015 EVJ Ltd.

A model for predicting onset of stagonospora nodorum blotch in winter wheat based on pre-planting and weather factors

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Stagonospora nodorum blotch (SNB) is a serious disease of wheat worldwide, and it is prevalent on winter wheat in many eastern states. Management relies mainly on fungicide application after flag leaf emergence. The disease can occur prior to flag leaf emergence, however, the impact of the time of ...

Relationships between Long-Term Demography and Weather in a Sub-Arctic Population of Common Eider

PubMed Central

Jónsson, Jón Einar; Gardarsson, Arnthor; Gill, Jennifer A.; Pétursdóttir, Una Krístín; Petersen, Aevar; Gunnarsson, Tómas Grétar

2013-01-01

Effects of local weather on individuals and populations are key drivers of wildlife responses to climatic changes. However, studies often do not last long enough to identify weather conditions that influence demographic processes, or to capture rare but extreme weather events at appropriate scales. In Iceland, farmers collect nest down of wild common eider Somateria mollissima and many farmers count nests within colonies annually, which reflects annual variation in the number of breeding females. We collated these data for 17 colonies. Synchrony in breeding numbers was generally low between colonies. We evaluated 1) demographic relationships with weather in nesting colonies of common eider across Iceland during 1900–2007; and 2) impacts of episodic weather events (aberrantly cold seasons or years) on subsequent breeding numbers. Except for episodic events, breeding numbers within a colony generally had no relationship to local weather conditions in the preceding year. However, common eider are sexually mature at 2–3 years of age and we found a 3-year time lag between summer weather and breeding numbers for three colonies, indicating a positive effect of higher pressure, drier summers for one colony, and a negative effect of warmer, calmer summers for two colonies. These findings may represent weather effects on duckling production and subsequent recruitment. Weather effects were mostly limited to a few aberrant years causing reductions in breeding numbers, i.e. declines in several colonies followed severe winters (1918) and some years with high NAO (1992, 1995). In terms of life history, adult survival generally is high and stable and probably only markedly affected by inclement weather or aberrantly bad years. Conversely, breeding propensity of adults and duckling production probably do respond more to annual weather variations; i.e. unfavorable winter conditions for adults increase probability of death or skipped breeding, whereas favorable summers can promote boom years for recruitment. PMID:23805292

Characteristics of atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme temperatures over North America in observations and climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loikith, Paul C.

Motivated by a desire to understand the physical mechanisms involved in future anthropogenic changes in extreme temperature events, the key atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme daily temperatures over North America in the current climate are identified. Several novel metrics are used to systematically identify and describe these patterns for the entire continent. The orientation, physical characteristics, and spatial scale of these circulation patterns vary based on latitude, season, and proximity to important geographic features (i.e., mountains, coastlines). The anomaly patterns associated with extreme cold events tend to be similar to, but opposite in sign of, those associated with extreme warm events, especially within the westerlies, and tend to scale with temperature in the same locations. The influence of the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern, the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on extreme temperature days and months shows that associations between extreme temperatures and the PNA and NAM are stronger than associations with ENSO. In general, the association with extremes tends to be stronger on monthly than daily time scales. Extreme temperatures are associated with the PNA and NAM in locations typically influenced by these circulation patterns; however many extremes still occur on days when the amplitude and polarity of these patterns do not favor their occurrence. In winter, synoptic-scale, transient weather disturbances are important drivers of extreme temperature days; however these smaller-scale events are often concurrent with amplified PNA or NAM patterns. Associations are weaker in summer when other physical mechanisms affecting the surface energy balance, such as anomalous soil moisture content, are associated with extreme temperatures. Analysis of historical runs from seventeen climate models from the CMIP5 database suggests that most models simulate realistic circulation patterns associated with extreme temperature days in most places. Model-simulated patterns tend to resemble observed patterns better in the winter than the summer and at 500 hPa than at the surface. There is substantial variability among the suite of models analyzed and most models simulate circulation patterns more realistically away from influential features such as large bodies of water and complex topography.

Dual effects of the winter monsoon on haze-fog variations in eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Qian; Sheng, Lifang; Cao, Ziqi; Diao, Yina; Wang, Wencai; Zhou, Yang

2017-06-01

Previous studies have revealed a negative correlation between the East Asian winter monsoon and wintertime haze-fog events in China. The winter monsoon reduces haze-fog by advecting away aerosol particles and supplying clean air through cold waves. However, it is found that the frequency of haze-fog events on subseasonal time scales displays no correlation with typical winter monsoon indices. The results show that the accumulating and maintaining effects of calm weather related to the Siberian High, which is also a part of the monsoon circulation system, are equally important for the development of haze-fog events during winter. Correlation analysis indicates that subseasonal variations in haze-fog are closely related to the intensity of the Siberian High (r = 0.49). The Siberian High may increase the occurrence of haze-fog events by reducing the near surface wind speed and enhancing the stratification stability. To quantify the contribution of these diverse effects of the winter monsoon on the variations in haze-fog events, we analyzed haze-fog events during periods of cold wave activity and calm weather separately and contrasted the relative contributions of these two effects on different time scales. On the subseasonal scale, the effect of the Siberian High was 2.0 times that of cold waves; on the interannual scale, the effect of cold waves was 2.4 times that of the Siberian High. This study reveals the dual effects of the East Asian winter monsoon on wintertime haze-fog variations in eastern China and provides a more comprehensive understanding of the relationship between the monsoon and haze-fog events.

Role of Winter Weather Conditions and Slipperiness on Tourists' Accidents in Finland.

PubMed

Lépy, Élise; Rantala, Sinikka; Huusko, Antti; Nieminen, Pentti; Hippi, Marjo; Rautio, Arja

2016-08-15

(1) BACKGROUND: In Finland, slippery snowy or icy ground surface conditions can be quite hazardous to human health during wintertime. We focused on the impacts of the variability in weather conditions on tourists' health via documented accidents during the winter season in the Sotkamo area. We attempted to estimate the slipping hazard in a specific context of space and time focusing on the weather and other possible parameters, responsible for fluctuations in the numbers of injuries/accidents; (2) METHODS: We used statistical distributions with graphical illustrations to examine the distribution of visits to Kainuu Hospital by non-local patients and their characteristics/causes; graphs to illustrate the distribution of the different characteristics of weather conditions; questionnaires and interviews conducted among health care and safety personnel in Sotkamo and Kuusamo; (3) RESULTS: There was a clear seasonal distribution in the numbers and types of extremity injuries of non-local patients. While the risk of slipping is emphasized, other factors leading to injuries are evaluated; and (4) CONCLUSIONS: The study highlighted the clear role of wintery weather conditions as a cause of extremity injuries even though other aspects must also be considered. Future scenarios, challenges and adaptive strategies are also discussed from the viewpoint of climate change.

Role of Winter Weather Conditions and Slipperiness on Tourists’ Accidents in Finland

PubMed Central

Lépy, Élise; Rantala, Sinikka; Huusko, Antti; Nieminen, Pentti; Hippi, Marjo; Rautio, Arja

2016-01-01

(1) Background: In Finland, slippery snowy or icy ground surface conditions can be quite hazardous to human health during wintertime. We focused on the impacts of the variability in weather conditions on tourists’ health via documented accidents during the winter season in the Sotkamo area. We attempted to estimate the slipping hazard in a specific context of space and time focusing on the weather and other possible parameters, responsible for fluctuations in the numbers of injuries/accidents; (2) Methods: We used statistical distributions with graphical illustrations to examine the distribution of visits to Kainuu Hospital by non-local patients and their characteristics/causes; graphs to illustrate the distribution of the different characteristics of weather conditions; questionnaires and interviews conducted among health care and safety personnel in Sotkamo and Kuusamo; (3) Results: There was a clear seasonal distribution in the numbers and types of extremity injuries of non-local patients. While the risk of slipping is emphasized, other factors leading to injuries are evaluated; and (4) Conclusions: The study highlighted the clear role of wintery weather conditions as a cause of extremity injuries even though other aspects must also be considered. Future scenarios, challenges and adaptive strategies are also discussed from the viewpoint of climate change. PMID:27537899

Situation Climatic Briefs

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-09-01

F-7 CHILE -ARGENTINA SOUTH OF 40 DEGREES SOUTH .... ............. .. F-13 CHILE -PERU BORDER ................. ......................... F...34SITUATION CLIMATIC BRIEF CHILE -ARGENTINA SOUTH OF 40 DEGREES SOUTH ANNUAL 1. GENERAL. The weather is generally cloudy, windy, and cold year-round...conditions can occur for 3 or 4 hours following cold frontal passage during the winter. 4. TERMINAL WEATHER. Puerto Montt, Chile . Fair. Conditions are

SUBMIT YOUR IMAGES TO NASA's "LET IT SNOW" PHOTO CONTEST!

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

NASA's Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission wants to see your best photos of winter weather! You can submit your images to the contest here: www.flickr.com/groups/gpm-extreme-weather/ To read more about this image and or to see the high res file go to: earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=80082

Weather Type classification over Chile; patterns, trends, and impact in precipitation and temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frias, T.; Trigo, R. M.; Garreaud, R.

2009-04-01

The Andes Cordillera induces considerable disturbances on the structure and evolution of the pressure systems that influences South America. Different weather types for southern South America are derived from the daily maps of geopotential height at 850hPa corresponding to a 42 year period, spanning from 1958 to 2000. Here we have used the ECWMF ERA-40 reanalysis dataset to construct an automated version of the Lamb Weather type (WTs) classification scheme (Jones et al., 1993) developed for the UK. We have identified 8 basic WTs (Cyclonic, Anticyclonic and 6 main directional types) following a similar methodology to that previously adopted by Trigo and DaCamara, 2000 (for Iberia). This classification was applied to two regions of study (CLnorth and CLsouth) which differ 20° in latitude, so that the vast Chile territory could be covered. Then were assessed the impact of the occurrence of this weather types in precipitation in Chile, as well as in the distribution of precipitation and temperature fields (reanalysis data) in southern half of South America. The results allow to conclude that the precipitation in central region of Chile is largely linked with the class occurrence (concerning CLnorth) of cyclonic circulation and of West quadrant (SW, W and NW), despite of it's relatively low frequency. In CLsouth, for its part, it is verified that the most frequent circulation is from the west quadrant, although the associated amount of rainfall is lower than in CLnorth. There was also a general decrease of precipitation at local weather stations chosen in the considered period of study, particularly in austral winter.

A Linkage of Recent Arctic Summer Sea Ice and Snowfall Variability of Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iwamoto, K.; Honda, M.; Ukita, J.

2014-12-01

In spite of its mid-latitude location, Japan has a markedly high amount of snowfall, which owes much to the presence of cold air-break from Siberia and thus depends on the strength of the Siberian high and the Aleutian low. With this background this study examines the relationship between interannual variability and spatial patterns of snowfall in Japan with large-scale atmospheric and sea ice variations. The lag regression map of the winter snowfall in Japan on the time series of the Arctic SIE from the preceding summer shows a seesaw pattern in the snowfall, suggesting an Arctic teleconnection to regional weather. From the EOF analyses conducted on the snowfall distribution in Japan, we identify two modes with physical significance. The NH SIC and SLP regressed on PC1 show a sea ice reduction in the Barents and Kara Seas and anomalous strength of the Siberia high as discussed in Honda et al. (2009) and other studies, which support the above notion that the snowfall variability of Japan is influenced by Arctic sea ice conditions. Another mode is related to the AO/NAO and the hemispheric scale double sea-ice seesaw centered over the sub-Arctic region: one between the Labrador and Nordic Seas in the Atlantic and the other between the Okhotsk and Bering Seas from the Pacific as discussed in Ukita et al. (2007). Together, observations point to a significant role of the sea-ice in determining mid-latitude regional climate and weather patterns.

KSC-06pd1284

NASA Image and Video Library

2006-06-28

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - At the Cape Canaveral forecast facility in Florida, Shuttle Weather Officer Kathy Winters briefs the media on how the launch weather forecast is developed. Attendees also were able to meet the forecasters for the space shuttle and the expendable launch vehicles. Also participating were members of the Applied Meteorology Unit who provide special expertise to the forecasters by analyzing and interpreting unusual or inconsistent weather data. The media were able to see the release of the Rawinsonde weather balloon carrying instruments aloft to be used as part of developing the forecast. Photo credit: NASA/George Shelton

Analysis of avalanche risk factors in backcountry terrain based on usage frequency and accident data in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Techel, F.; Zweifel, B.; Winkler, K.

2015-09-01

Recreational activities in snow-covered mountainous terrain in the backcountry account for the vast majority of avalanche accidents. Studies analyzing avalanche risk mostly rely on accident statistics without considering exposure (or the elements at risk), i.e., how many, when and where people are recreating, as data on recreational activity in the winter mountains are scarce. To fill this gap, we explored volunteered geographic information on two social media mountaineering websites - bergportal.ch and camptocamp.org. Based on these data, we present a spatiotemporal pattern of winter backcountry touring activity in the Swiss Alps and compare this with accident statistics. Geographically, activity was concentrated in Alpine regions relatively close to the main Swiss population centers in the west and north. In contrast, accidents occurred equally often in the less-frequented inner-alpine regions. Weekends, weather and avalanche conditions influenced the number of recreationists, while the odds to be involved in a severe avalanche accident did not depend on weekends or weather conditions. However, the likelihood of being involved in an accident increased with increasing avalanche danger level, but also with a more unfavorable snowpack containing persistent weak layers (also referred to as an old snow problem). In fact, the most critical situation for backcountry recreationists and professionals occurred on days and in regions when both the avalanche danger was critical and when the snowpack contained persistent weak layers. The frequently occurring geographical pattern of a more unfavorable snowpack structure also explains the relatively high proportion of accidents in the less-frequented inner-alpine regions. These results have practical implications: avalanche forecasters should clearly communicate the avalanche danger and the avalanche problem to the backcountry user, particularly if persistent weak layers are of concern. Professionals and recreationists, on the other hand, require the expertise to adjust the planning of a tour and their backcountry travel behavior depending on the avalanche danger and the avalanche problem.

Deadly Cold: Health Hazards Due to Cold Weather. An Information Paper by the Subcommittee on Health and Long-Term Care of the Select Committee on Aging. House of Representatives, Ninety-Eighth Congress, Second Session (February 1984).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Congress of the U.S., Washington, DC. House Select Committee on Aging.

This paper, on the health hazards of cold weather for elderly persons, presents information from various sources on the death rates in winter throughout the United States. After reviewing the scope of the problem, specific health hazards associated with cold weather are discussed, i.e., hypothermia, fires, carbon monoxide poisoning, and influenza…

Modeling the effects of winter environment on dormancy release of Douglas-fir

Treesearch

Connie Harrington; Peter J. Gould; Brad St. Clair

2010-01-01

Most temperate woody plants have a winter chilling requirement to prevent budburst during midwinter periods of warm weather. The date of spring budburst is dependent on both chilling and forcing; modeling this date is an important part of predicting potential effects of global warming on trees. There is no clear evidence from the literature that the curves of chilling...

The Sinuosity of Atmospheric Circulation over North America and its Relationship to Arctic Climate Change and Extreme Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vavrus, S. J.; Wang, F.; Martin, J. E.; Francis, J. A.

2015-12-01

Recent research has suggested a relationship between mid-latitude weather and Arctic amplification (AA) of global climate change via a slower and wavier extratropical circulation inducing more extreme events. To test this hypothesis and to quantify the waviness of the extratropical flow, we apply a novel application of the geomorphological concept of sinuosity (SIN) over greater North America. SIN is defined as the ratio of the curvilinear length of a geopotential height contour to the perimeter of its equivalent latitude, where the contour and the equivalent latitude enclose the same area. We use 500 hPa daily heights from reanalysis and model simulations to calculate past and future SIN. The circulation exhibits a distinct annual cycle of maximum SIN (waviness) in summer and a minimum in winter, inversely related to the annual cycle of zonal wind speed. Positive trends in SIN have emerged in recent decades during winter and summer at several latitude bands, generally collocated with negative trends in zonal wind speeds. High values of SIN coincide with many prominent extreme-weather events, including Superstorm Sandy. RCP8.5 simulations (2006-2100) project a dipole pattern of zonal wind changes that varies seasonally. In winter, AA causes inflated heights over the Arctic relative to mid-latitudes and an associated weakening (strengthening) of the westerlies north (south) of 40N. The AA signal in summer is strongest over upper-latitude land, promoting localized atmospheric ridging aloft with lighter westerlies to the south and stronger zonal winds to the north. The changes in wind speeds in both seasons are inversely correlated with SIN, indicating a wavier circulation where the flow weakens. In summer the lighter winds over much of the U. S. resemble circulation anomalies observed during extreme summer heat and drought. Such changes may be linked to enhanced heating of upper-latitude land surfaces caused by earlier snow melt during spring-summer.

[The influence of weather conditions on the epidemiology of vector-borne diseases by the example of West Nile fever in Russia].

PubMed

Platonov, A E

2006-01-01

Climate changes must influence the incidence of vector-borne infections, but their effects cannot be revealed due to lack of long-term observations. The impact of short-term weather changes may be used as a model. In Russia the biggest numbers of clinical cases of mosquito-borne West Nile infection were registered in 1999 in Volgograd and Astrakhan regions. The analysis of climatic dataset since 1900 shows that 1999 was the hottest year in Volgograd in the 20th century due to a very mild winter (December-March) and a rather hot summer (June-September). The author of the article puts forward a hypothesis that high winter temperatures favored the survival of over-wintering mosquito vectors, and high summer temperature facilitated the growth of the virus in the mosquitoes, as well as propagation of the mosquitoes themselves. The author assumes that conventional threshold temperatures for "beneficial for WNF conditions" in Russia are > or = 3 degrees C in winter, and > or = 22 degrees C in summer. These conditions coincided only in 1948 and 1999. In Astrakhan the "beneficial for WNF conditions" were registered in 30 out of 147 years of observation, and in 12 years between 1964 and 2003. This is not surprising that Astrakhan region is endemic for WNF in accordance with clinical and epidemiological data collected since the sixties. These findings give some hints on the WNF predisposing factors, as well as possibility of weather surveillance and prediction of WNF outbreaks in temperate climatic zones such as Southern Russia.

The impact of boreal autumn SST anomalies over the South Pacific on boreal winter precipitation over East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ao, Juan; Sun, Jianqi

2016-05-01

The possible mechanism behind the variability in the dipole pattern of boreal winter precipitation over East Asia is analyzed in this study. The results show that the SST anomalies (SSTAs) over the South Pacific Ocean (SPO) in boreal autumn are closely related to the variability in the dipole pattern of boreal winter precipitation over East Asia. The physical link between the boreal autumn SPO SSTAs and the boreal winter East Asian precipitation dipole pattern is shown to mainly be the seasonal persistence of the SPO SSTAs themselves. The seasonal persistence of the SPO SSTAs can memorize and transport the signal of the boreal autumn SSTAs to the following winter, and then stimulates a meridional teleconnection pattern from the SH to the NH, resulting in a meridional dipole pattern of atmospheric circulation over East Asia in boreal winter. As a major influencing factor, this dipole pattern of the atmospheric circulation can finally lead to the anomalous precipitation dipole pattern over East Asia in boreal winter. These observed physical processes are further confirmed in this study through numerical simulation. The evidence from this study, showing the impact of the SPO SSTAs in boreal autumn, not only deepens our understanding of the variability in East Asian boreal winter precipitation, but also provides a potentially useful predictor for precipitation in the region.

Effects of weather on survival in populations of boreal toads in Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scherer, R. D.; Muths, E.; Lambert, B.A.

2008-01-01

Understanding the relationships between animal population demography and the abiotic and biotic elements of the environments in which they live is a central objective in population ecology. For example, correlations between weather variables and the probability of survival in populations of temperate zone amphibians may be broadly applicable to several species if such correlations can be validated for multiple situations. This study focuses on the probability of survival and evaluates hypotheses based on six weather variables in three populations of Boreal Toads (Bufo boreas) from central Colorado over eight years. In addition to suggesting a relationship between some weather variables and survival probability in Boreal Toad populations, this study uses robust methods and highlights the need for demographic estimates that are precise and have minimal bias. Capture-recapture methods were used to collect the data, and the Cormack-Jolly-Seber model in program MARK was used for analysis. The top models included minimum daily winter air temperature, and the sum of the model weights for these models was 0.956. Weaker support was found for the importance of snow depth and the amount of environmental moisture in winter in modeling survival probability. Minimum daily winter air temperature was positively correlated with the probability of survival in Boreal Toads at other sites in Colorado and has been identified as an important covariate in studies in other parts of the world. If air temperatures are an important component of survival for Boreal Toads or other amphibians, changes in climate may have profound impacts on populations. Copyright 2008 Society for the Study of Amphibians and Reptiles.

Connecting Current Research on Climate and Snow with Individuals Who Care

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, C. E.; Denning, S.

2015-12-01

A growing body of research explores the effects of climate change on snow in the Southern Rocky Mountains. This research includes observing climate and weather patterns, modeling potential future winter climate and snowpack, and exploring how these changes will affect the ecosystems, people, and industries that rely on frozen reservoirs of seasonal snow. We review existing resources for non-scientists on this topic, and explain how climate and snow are changing in the Southern Rocky Mountains. The Southern Rockies urban corridor is home to a growing population of people who rely directly on snowmelt runoff for daily life, health, and prosperity. Many of these people also seek refuge from growing urbanization by escaping to the mountains. Meanwhile, high elevations in the Rockies are already experiencing noticeable effects of climate change. Individuals with personal connections to the mountains make a ready audience to receive accessible science communication grounded in current research. People who care about mountains may be inspired to join the conversation and take action in their own lives as they learn what is already changing and what they might expect to find in winters to come.

Comparison of precipitation chemistry in the Central Rocky Mountains, Colorado, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heuer, K.; Tonnessen, K.A.; Ingersoll, G.P.

2000-01-01

Volume-weighted mean concentrations of nitrate (NO3-), ammonium (NH4+), and sulfate (SO42-) in precipitation were compared at high-elevation sites in Colorado from 1992 to 1997 to evaluate emission source areas to the east and west of the Rocky Mountains. Precipitation chemistry was measured by two sampling methods, the National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network (NADP/NTN) and snowpack surveys at maximum accumulation. Concentrations of NO3- and SO42- in winter precipitation were greater on the western slope of the Rockies, and concentrations of NO3- and NH4+ in summer precipitation were greater on the eastern slope. Summer concentrations in general were almost twice as high as winter concentrations. Seasonal weather patterns in combination with emission source areas help to explain these differences. This comparison shows that high-elevation ecosystems in Colorado are influenced by air pollution emission sources located on both sides of the Continental Divide. It also suggests that sources of nitrogen and sulfur located east of the Divide have a greater influence on precipitation chemistry in the Colorado Rockies. Copyright (C) 2000.

Cold Weather Entomology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McLure, John W.

1983-01-01

Suggests instructional strategies and student activities related to the study of insects during the winter. Includes possible collecting sites and classroom activities once the insects have been collected. (JN)

Response of winter and spring wheat grain yields to meteorological variation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feyerherm, A. M.; Kanemasu, E. T.; Paulsen, G. M.

1977-01-01

Mathematical models which quantify the relation of wheat yield to selected weather-related variables are presented. Other sources of variation (amount of applied nitrogen, improved varieties, cultural practices) have been incorporated in the models to explain yield variation both singly and in combination with weather-related variables. Separate models were developed for fall-planted (winter) and spring-planted (spring) wheats. Meteorological variation is observed, basically, by daily measurements of minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation, and tabled values of solar radiation at the edge of the atmosphere and daylength. Two different soil moisture budgets are suggested to compute simulated values of evapotranspiration; one uses the above-mentioned inputs, the other uses the measured temperatures and precipitation but replaces the tabled values (solar radiation and daylength) by measured solar radiation and satellite-derived multispectral scanner data to estimate leaf area index. Weather-related variables are defined by phenological stages, rather than calendar periods, to make the models more universally applicable.

Barents-Kara sea ice and the winter NAO in the DePreSys3 Met Office Seasonal forecast model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warner, J.; Screen, J.

2017-12-01

Accurate seasonal forecasting leads to a wide range of socio-economic benefits and increases resilience to prolonged bouts of extreme weather. This work looks at how November Barents-Kara sea ice may affect the winter northern hemisphere atmospheric circulation, using various compositing methods in the DePreSys3 ensemble model, with lag to argue better a relationship between the two. In particular, the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is focused on given its implications on European weather. Using this large hindcast dataset comprised of 35 years with 30 available ensemble members, it is found that low Barents-Kara sea ice leads to a negative NAO tendency in all composite methods, with increased mean sea level pressure in higher latitudes. The significance of this varies between composites. This is preliminary analysis of a larger PhD project to further understand how Arctic Sea ice may play a role in seasonal forecasting skill through its connection/influence on mid-latitude weather.

Impacts of a Destructive and Well-Observed Cross-Country Winter Storm.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martner, Brooks E.; Rauber, Robert M.; Ramamurthy, Mohan K.; Rasmussen, Roy M.; Prater, Erwin T.

1992-02-01

A winter storm that crossed the continental United States in mid-February 1990 produced hazardous weather across a vast area of the nation. A wide range of severe weather was reported, including heavy snowfall; freezing rain and drizzle; thunderstorms with destructive winds, lightning, large hail, and tornadoes; prolonged heavy rain with subsequent flooding; frost damage to citrus orchards; and sustained destructive winds not associated with thunderstorms. Low-end preliminary estimates of impacts included 9 deaths, 27 injuries, and $120 million of property damage. At least 35 states and southeastern Canada were adversely affected. The storm occurred during the field operations of four independent atmospheric research projects that obtained special, detailed observations of it from the Rocky Mountains to the eastern great Lakes.

Satellite Sees Winter Storm March Over Mid-Atlantic

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-03-03

On March 3, a major winter storm brought snow to the mid-Atlantic, freezing rain to the Carolinas and rain and some freezing rain to the Gulf Coast states. NOAA's GOES-East satellite captured an image of the clouds associated with the winter storm on March 3 at 12:45 p.m. EST (1745 UTC)/ as it continued on its march over the mid-Atlantic. Bands of snow and sometimes heavy snow affected the Washington, D.C., region, Delaware and central Virginia, stretching west into West Virginia and eastern Kentucky. Snow also stretched back into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys while rain and freezing rain affected the Carolinas, and while the Gulf Coast states received rain. National Weather Service Winter Storm Warnings remained in effect until 6 p.m. EST on March 3 for Washington, D.C., and Baltimore, Md. In Richmond and Norfolk, Va., the Winter Storm warnings were in effect for six additional hours ending at midnight. On March 3, NOAA's National Weather Prediction Center in College Park, Md., noted the late-season winter storm will continue to shift eastward through the Tennessee Valley and the mid-Atlantic today, making for hazardous travel conditions. NOAA noted that unseasonably cold temperatures more typical of January will prevail east of the Rocky Mountains for the next few days keeping winter around for a while longer. The clouds are associated with a cold front that stretched from eastern Maine through Maryland and west into the Tennessee Valley. At NASA/NOAA's GOES Project at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md., the cloud data from NOAA's GOES-East satellite were overlaid on a true-color image of land and ocean created by data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, or MODIS, instrument that flies aboard NASA's Aqua and Terra satellites. Together, those data created the entire picture of the position of this major winter storm. GOES satellites provide the kind of continuous monitoring necessary for intensive data analysis. Geostationary describes an orbit in which a satellite is always in the same position with respect to the rotating Earth. This allows GOES to hover continuously over one position on Earth's surface, appearing stationary. As a result, GOES provide a constant vigil for the atmospheric "triggers" for severe weather conditions such as tornadoes, flash floods, hail storms and hurricanes. For updated information about the storm system, visit NOAA's NWS website: www.weather.gov For more information about GOES satellites, visit: www.goes.noaa.gov/ or goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/ Rob Gutro NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md. NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Mapping malaria incidence distribution that accounts for environmental factors in Maputo Province - Mozambique

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background The objective was to study if an association exists between the incidence of malaria and some weather parameters in tropical Maputo province, Mozambique. Methods A Bayesian hierarchical model to malaria count data aggregated at district level over a two years period is formulated. This model made it possible to account for spatial area variations. The model was extended to include environmental covariates temperature and rainfall. Study period was then divided into two climate conditions: rainy and dry seasons. The incidences of malaria between the two seasons were compared. Parameter estimation and inference were carried out using MCMC simulation techniques based on Poisson variation. Model comparisons are made using DIC. Results For winter season, in 2001 the temperature covariate with estimated value of -8.88 shows no association to malaria incidence. In year 2002, the parameter estimation of the same covariate resulted in 5.498 of positive level of association. In both years rainfall covariate determines no dependency to malaria incidence. Malaria transmission is higher in wet season with both covariates positively related to malaria with posterior means 1.99 and 2.83 in year 2001. For 2002 only temperature is associated to malaria incidence with estimated value 2.23. Conclusions The incidence of malaria in year 2001, presents an independent spatial pattern for temperature in summer and for rainfall in winter seasons respectively. In year 2002 temperature determines the spatial pattern of malaria incidence in the region. Temperature influences the model in cases where both covariates are introduced in winter and summer season. Its influence is extended to the summer model with temperature covariate only. It is reasonable to state that with the occurrence of high temperatures, malaria incidence had certainly escalated in this year. PMID:20302674

Climate impact on suicide rates in Finland from 1971 to 2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruuhela, Reija; Hiltunen, Laura; Venäläinen, Ari; Pirinen, Pentti; Partonen, Timo

2009-03-01

Seasonal patterns of death from suicide are well-documented and have been attributed to climatic factors such as solar radiation and ambient temperature. However, studies on the impact of weather and climate on suicide are not consistent, and conflicting data have been reported. In this study, we performed a correlation analysis between nationwide suicide rates and weather variables in Finland during the period 1971-2003. The weather parameters studied were global solar radiation, temperature and precipitation, and a range of time spans from 1 month to 1 year were used in order to elucidate the dose-response relationship, if any, between weather variables and suicide. Single and multiple linear regression models show weak associations using 1-month and 3-month time spans, but robust associations using a 12-month time span. Cumulative global solar radiation had the best explanatory power, while average temperature and cumulative precipitation had only a minor impact on suicide rates. Our results demonstrate that winters with low global radiation may increase the risk of suicide. The best correlation found was for the 5-month period from November to March; the inter-annual variability in the cumulative global radiation for that period explained 40 % of the variation in the male suicide rate and 14 % of the variation in the female suicide rate, both at a statistically significant level. Long-term variations in global radiation may also explain, in part, the observed increasing trend in the suicide rate until 1990 and the decreasing trend since then in Finland.

A reindeer herder's perspective on caribou, weather and socio-economic change on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska.

Treesearch

Kumi Rattenbury; Knut Kielland; Greg Finstad; William Schneider

2009-01-01

Nonclimate variables shape vulnerability and adaptive capacity to climate change. Here, we describe how recent environmental and socioeconomic developments have transformed reindeer herding and perceptions of weather on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. The reindeer industry has shrunk considerably since the early 1990s, when the winter range of the Western Arctic Caribou...

STS-121: Discovery L-1 Countdown Status Briefing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2006-01-01

Bruce Buckingham, NASA Public Affairs, introduces Jeff Spaulding, NASA Test Director; Debbie Hahn, STS-121 Payload Manager; and Kathy Winters, Shuttle Weather Officer. Spaulding gives his opening statement on this one day prior to the launching of the Space Shuttle Discovery. He discusses the following topics: 1) Launch of the Space Shuttle Discovery; 2) Weather; 3) Load over of onboard reactants; 4) Hold time for liquid hydrogen; 5) Stowage of Mid-deck completion; 6) Check-out of onboard and ground network systems; 7) Launch windows; 8) Mission duration; 9) Extravehicular (EVA) plans; 10) Space Shuttle landing day; and 11) Scrub turn-around plans. Hahn presents and discusses a short video of the STS-121 payload flow. Kathy Winters gives her weather forecast for launch. She then presents a slide presentation on the following weather conditions for the Space Shuttle Discovery: 1) STS-121 Tanking Forecast; 2) Launch Forecast; 3) SRB Recovery; 4) CONUS Launch; 5) TAL Launch; 6) 24 Hour Delay; 7) CONUS 24 Hour; 8) TAL 24 Hour; 9) 48 Hour Launch; 10) CONUS 48 Hour; and 11) TAL 48 Hour. The briefing ends with a question and answer period from the media.

White Sea's Severe Winter Hydrological Hazard and Its Effect On Decrease of Population of Greenland Seals (1998/99 Winter Ecological Catastrophe)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melentyev, Konstantin V.; Chernook, Vladimir I.

Types of hydrological hazards are various but its agencies are especially diversified . At this study hazard effects will be assessed for White Sea population of Greenland seals - a representatives of high level of marine fodder chains and the prime part of the Arctic nature. Number of population and type of their migration are strongly depended from different meteorological and hydrological parameters and processes, climate change and anthropogenical press, including pollution and fur-seal fishery, create additional problems. Especially hard situation happens now with the ice- associated sea mammals (p olar bear, seal, walrus, etc.). Mass destruction of seals in the White Sea (ecological catastrophe) which happens periodically is close connected with different kind of meteorological and hydrological hazard. Greenland seals selected these water areas for whelping where a rookeries are organized on pack ice. But severe winter conditions (long-run severe frosts and NE winds) can modify ice regime of the White Sea which lead to effect "blocking" of pack ice (and whelping rookeries) inside the "Basin". These features stimulated strong reduction number ofseals (especially pups). Marine biology use modelling of the system "sea mammal-media", study "behavior factors" and mammals biodiversity at the different natural conditions. But the main critical goal is the development of special observational network for the White Sea and contiguous regions. A contemporary technologies assume integration of remote sensing and in situ hydro-chemical measurements. Airborne IR and visible observation of the marginal Arctic seas became now an indispensable part of marine ecological investigations. Application of satellite data for monitoring of sea mammals has been attractive also but practical use is restrained by its small spatial resolution, daytime illumination and cloud influence in the Arctic. Launching ERS synthetic aperture radar (SAR) in 1991, which provides global all- weather soundig with resolution 20-25 m, changed situation. High transparency of snow and relatively deep penetration of signals in ice is basis of sub-surface sounding. SAR images allow fix documentary different ice parameters: development and arrangement, ice type, shape of floes, ice concentration and compactness. Unfortunately time being resolution couldn't resolve individual sea mammal. In order to investigate the ice regime, estimate number of seals at the different winter conditions and forecast the future tendency of population decrease we perform regularly ice reconnaissance. Accomplish these observations and computations more precisely could be done at the time of mass accumulation of seals, that is whelping and moulting period. Aerial inspection is difficult task: weather conditions and masking coloration obstructs the problems, sometimes mammals couldn't be quite founded. Comprehensive study of ERS SAR signatures for diagnosis type of winter hydrology of the Arctic seas and ice conditions produced by severe winter , assessment of possibility forecast of future development of ice and studying ice as non-biotic factor of ecology of Pagophilus groenladicus and other ice-associated forms of sea mammals is a new interdisciplinary approach in marine biology. First experience of such application SAR data for diagnosis of hydrological hazard produced by severe winter has been undertaken in the White Sea and contiguous seas in 1996. Sub-satellite experiments onboard nuclear icebreaker "Taymir" provided validation program, ice cores and water samples were gathered and evaluated using chemi-luminiscent methods in connection with seal' behavior patterns. Since then aircraft Antonov-26 «Arktika» provided ice and seals investigations systematically. Helicopter is employed for in situ observations, ice cores and water samples are investigated in laboratory for measurement of different pollutant , dissolved organic matter and other hydro-chemical and radio-physical paramet ers. European Space Agency (ESA) supported this work in 1998-2000. Results of comprehensive study of hydrological hazard and ecological catastrophe in the White Sea produced by 1998/99 severe winter season are demonstrated. Satellite diagnostic and situation forecast is fulfilled for the different winter severity: results of airborne charting of seals are compared for the different ice and weather conditions . 1999/2000 winter is analyzed as mean-climatic winter season.

The waviness of the extratropical jet and daily weather extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Röthlisberger, Matthias; Martius, Olivia; Pfahl, Stephan

2016-04-01

In recent years the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes have experienced a large number of weather extremes with substantial socio-economic impact, such as the European and Russian heat waves in 2003 and 2010, severe winter floods in the United Kingdom in 2013/2014 and devastating winter storms such as Lothar (1999) and Xynthia (2010) in Central Europe. These have triggered an engaged debate within the scientific community on the role of human induced climate change in the occurrence of such extremes. A key element of this debate is the hypothesis that the waviness of the extratropical jet is linked to the occurrence of weather extremes, with a wavier jet stream favouring more extremes. Previous work on this topic is expanded in this study by analyzing the linkage between a regional measure of jet waviness and daily temperature, precipitation and wind gust extremes. We show that indeed such a linkage exists in many regions of the world, however this waviness-extremes linkage varies spatially in strength and sign. Locally, it is strong only where the relevant weather systems, in which the extremes occur, are affected by the jet waviness. Its sign depends on how the frequency of occurrence of the relevant weather systems is correlated with the occurrence of high and low jet waviness. These results go beyond previous studies by noting that also a decrease in waviness could be associated with an enhanced number of some weather extremes, especially wind gust and precipitation extremes over western Europe.

A new precipitation and drought climatology based on weather patterns

PubMed Central

Fowler, Hayley J.; Kilsby, Christopher G.; Neal, Robert

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Weather‐pattern, or weather‐type, classifications are a valuable tool in many applications as they characterize the broad‐scale atmospheric circulation over a given region. This study analyses the aspects of regional UK precipitation and meteorological drought climatology with respect to a new set of objectively defined weather patterns. These new patterns are currently being used by the Met Office in several probabilistic forecasting applications driven by ensemble forecasting systems. Weather pattern definitions and daily occurrences are mapped to Lamb weather types (LWTs), and parallels between the two classifications are drawn. Daily precipitation distributions are associated with each weather pattern and LWT. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and drought severity index (DSI) series are calculated for a range of aggregation periods and seasons. Monthly weather‐pattern frequency anomalies are calculated for SPI wet and dry periods and for the 5% most intense DSI‐based drought months. The new weather‐pattern definitions and daily occurrences largely agree with their respective LWTs, allowing comparison between the two classifications. There is also broad agreement between weather pattern and LWT changes in frequencies. The new data set is shown to be adequate for precipitation‐based analyses in the UK, although a smaller set of clustered weather patterns is not. Furthermore, intra‐pattern precipitation variability is lower in the new classification compared to the LWTs, which is an advantage in this context. Six of the new weather patterns are associated with drought over the entire UK, with several other patterns linked to regional drought. It is demonstrated that the new data set of weather patterns offers a new opportunity for classification‐based analyses in the UK. PMID:29456290

Influenza epidemics, seasonality, and the effects of cold weather on cardiac mortality

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background More people die in the winter from cardiac disease, and there are competing hypotheses to explain this. The authors conducted a study in 48 US cities to determine how much of the seasonal pattern in cardiac deaths could be explained by influenza epidemics, whether that allowed a more parsimonious control for season than traditional spline models, and whether such control changed the short term association with temperature. Methods The authors obtained counts of daily cardiac deaths and of emergency hospital admissions of the elderly for influenza during 1992–2000. Quasi-Poisson regression models were conducted estimating the association between daily cardiac mortality, and temperature. Results Controlling for influenza admissions provided a more parsimonious model with better Generalized Cross-Validation, lower residual serial correlation, and better captured Winter peaks. The temperature-response function was not greatly affected by adjusting for influenza. The pooled estimated increase in risk for a temperature decrease from 0 to −5°C was 1.6% (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1-2.1%). Influenza accounted for 2.3% of cardiac deaths over this period. Conclusions The results suggest that including epidemic data explained most of the irregular seasonal pattern (about 18% of the total seasonal variation), allowing more parsimonious models than when adjusting for seasonality only with smooth functions of time. The effect of cold temperature is not confounded by epidemics. PMID:23025494

The Little Ice Age and Solar Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velasco Herrera, Victor Manuel; Leal Silva, C. M. Carmen; Velasco Herrera, Graciela

We analyze the ice winter severity index on the Baltic region since 1501-1995. We found that the variability of this index is modulated among other factors by the secular solar activity. The little ice ages that have appeared in the North Hemisphere occurred during periods of low solar activity. Seemingly our star is experiencing a new quiet stage compared with Maunder or Dalton minimum, this is important because it is estimated that even small changes in weather can represent a great impact in ice index. These results are relevant since ice is a very important element in the climate system of the Baltic region and it can affect directly or indirectly many of the oceanographic, climatic, eco-logical, economical and cultural patterns.

Update: cold weather injuries, active and reserve components, U.S. Armed Forces, July 2009-June 2014.

PubMed

Connor, Ricardford R

2014-10-01

From July 2013 through June 2014, the number of active and reserve component service members treated for cold injuries (n=719) was the highest of the past five cold seasons (2009-2014). The rate of cold injury among active component personnel was also the highest of the 5-year period. Army personnel accounted for the majority (62%) of cold injuries. Frostbite was the most common type of cold injury in each of the services. Consistent with trends from previous cold seasons, service members who were female, younger than 20 years old, or of black, non-Hispanic race/ethnicity tended to have higher cold injury rates than their respective counterparts. Numbers of cases in the combat zone have decreased in the past 2 years, presumably as a result of declining numbers of personnel exposed and the changing nature of operations. The increase in numbers and the geographic distribution of cold injuries in the previous cold season are compatible with the unusual pattern of cold weather that marked Winter 2013-2014.

Winter in Antarctica: dark, cold, windy, and .... wet?? Measurements and modeling of extensive wintertime surface melt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuipers Munneke, P.; Luckman, A. J.; Bevan, S. L.; Gilbert, E.; Smeets, P.; van den Broeke, M. R.; Wang, W.; Zender, C. S.; Ashmore, D. W.; Hubbard, B. P.; Orr, A.; King, J.

2017-12-01

We know that increased surface melt, driven by atmospheric warming, contributed to the collapse of ice shelves as observed in the Antarctic Peninsula. This has induced grounded-ice acceleration and increased ice discharge. You may associate this surface melt with the austral summer season, with plenty of solar radiation driving the melt. In contrast, winter in Antarctica evokes images of darkness, snow, and cold. However, we will make you rethink this picture by presenting observations of frequent snow surface melt in winter, from a weather station located in a previously unsurveyed area of the Larsen C Ice Shelf. Peak intensities of this wintertime melt even exceed summertime values, and thermal satellite images show that large ponds of meltwater are formed at the surface in the pitch-dark Antarctic winter. Obviously, we wanted to find out what could drive these strong melt events if it's not the sun. It turns out that these multi-day melt events occur when warm and dry föhn winds descend from the Antarctic Peninsula mountains. Simulations with a high-resolution weather model confirm that these winds generate turbulent fluxes of sensible heat, leading to melt fluxes in excess of 200 W m-2. In 2015 and 2016, about 23% of the annual melt was produced in winter. We use satellite radar to show that winter melt occurs on many more places in the Antarctic Peninsula. It happens every year, although in some years the melting is much more widespread than in others. We think that wintertime melt matters as its refreezing warms the snow and increases snow density. In this way, winter melt preconditions the ice shelf for more extensive surface drainage, potentially leading to meltwater-driven instability.

Habitat Suitability Index Models: American black duck (wintering)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lewis, James C.; Garrison, Russell L.

1984-01-01

INTRODUCTION The American black duck, commonly known as the black duck, is migratory and has a wide geographic range. American black ducks breed from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, west to the Mississippi River and north through the eastern Canadian boreal forest (Bellrose 1976). The winter range extends from the Rio Grande River on the Texas coast, northeast to Lake Michigan, east to Nova Scotia, south to Florida, and west to Texas (Wright 1954). American black ducks arrive on their wintering habitats between September and early December and remain there until February to April (Bellrose 1976). Their preferred habitat varies considerably through the wintering range. Habitat use appears related to food availability, freedom from disturbance, weather, and often upon the presence of large bodies of open water. These interrelated elements are essential for meeting the energy demands and other nutritional requirements of black ducks in response to the rigors of cold weather and migration. In the Atlantic Flyway, winter populations of American black ducks concentrate in marine and estuarine wetlands (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 1979). They use salt marshes and small tidal bays for feeding and loafing areas. In wintering areas north of Chesapeake Bay, American black ducks frequently feed on tidal flats and rest in emergent wetlands or on ice-free bays, rivers, and coastal reservoirs. In the Chesapeake bay area, migrant and wintering American black ducks occupy a wide variety of habitats (Stewart 1962). They strongly favor brackish bays with extensive adjacent agricultural lands. Estuarine bays, coastal salt marshes, tidal fresh marshes, and adjacent impoundments receive high usage. American black ducks also concentrate in forested wetlands in and adjacent to estuaries in the South Atlantic Flyway, especially in Virginia and North Carolina.

[Climate change and hygienic assessment of weather conditions in Omsk and the Omsk Region].

PubMed

Gudinova, Zh V; Akimova, I S; Klochikhina, A V

2010-01-01

The paper deals with trends in climate change in the Omsk Region: the increases in average annual air temperatures and rainfall, which are attended by the higher number of abnormal weather events, as shown by the data of the Omsk Regional Board, Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring. There is information on weather severity in 2008: there was mild weather in spring and severe weather in winter, in January in particular. A survey of physicians has revealed that medical workers are concerned about climate problems and global warming and ascertained weather events mostly affecting the population's health. People worry most frequently about a drastic temperature drop or rise (as high as 71%), atmospheric pressure change (53%), and "when it is too hot in summer (47%).

The influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on boreal winter rainfall over Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richard, Sandra; Walsh, Kevin J. E.

2017-09-01

Multi-scale interactions between El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Boreal Winter Monsoon contribute to rainfall variations over Malaysia. Understanding the physical mechanisms that control these spatial variations in local rainfall is crucial for improving weather and climate prediction and related risk management. Analysis using station observations and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis (ERA-Interim) reanalysis reveals a significant decrease in rainfall during El Niño (EL) and corresponding increase during La Niña particularly north of 2°N over Peninsular Malaysia (PM). It is noted that the southern tip of PM shows a small increase in rainfall during El Niño although not significant. Analysis of the diurnal cycle of rainfall and winds indicates that there are no significant changes in morning and evening rainfall over PM that could explain the north-south disparity. Thus, we suggest that the key factor which might explain the north-south rainfall disparity is the moisture flux convergence (MFC). During the December to January (DJF) period of EL years, except for the southern tip of PM, significant negative MFC causes drying as well as suppression of uplift over most areas. In addition, lower specific humidity combined with moisture flux divergence results in less moisture over PM. Thus, over the areas north of 2°N, less rainfall (less heavy rain days) with smaller diurnal rainfall amplitude explains the negative rainfall anomaly observed during DJF of EL. The same MFC argument might explain the dipolar pattern over other areas such as Borneo if further analysis is performed.

KSC-06pd1276

NASA Image and Video Library

2006-06-28

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - At the Cape Canaveral weather station in Florida, a member of the weather team looks over the weather balloons inside. The release of a Rawinsonde weather balloon was planned as part of a media tour prior to the launch of Space Shuttle Discovery on mission STS-121 July 1. At the facility, which is operated by the U.S. Air Force 45th Weather Squadron, media saw the tools used by the weather team to create the forecast for launch day. They received a briefing on how the launch weather forecast is developed by Shuttle Weather Officer Kathy Winters and met the forecasters for the space shuttle and the expendable launch vehicles. Also participating were members of the Applied Meteorology Unit who provide special expertise to the forecasters by analyzing and interpreting unusual or inconsistent weather data. The media were able to see the release of the Rawinsonde weather balloon carrying instruments aloft to be used as part of developing the forecast. Photo credit: NASA/George Shelton

Precipitation variability of the Grand Canyon region, 1893 through 2009, and its implications for studying effects of gullying of Holocene terraces and associated archeological sites in Grand Canyon, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hereford, Richard; Bennett, Glenn E.; Fairley, Helen C.

2014-01-01

A daily precipitation dataset covering a large part of the American Southwest was compiled for online electronic distribution (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2014/1006/). The dataset contains 10.8 million observations spanning January 1893 through January 2009 from 846 weather stations in six states and 13 climate divisions. In addition to processing the data for distribution, water-year totals and other statistical parameters were calculated for each station with more than 2 years of observations. Division-wide total precipitation, expressed as the average deviation from the individual station means of a climate division, shows that the region—including the Grand Canyon, Arizona, area—has been affected by alternating multidecadal episodes of drought and wet conditions. In addition to compiling and analyzing the long-term regional precipitation data, a second dataset consisting of high-temporal-resolution precipitation measurements collected between November 2003 and January 2009 from 10 localities along the Colorado River in Grand Canyon was compiled. An exploratory study of these high-temporal-resolution precipitation measurements suggests that on a daily basis precipitation patterns are generally similar to those at a long-term weather station in the canyon, which in turn resembles the patterns at other long-term stations on the canyon rims; however, precipitation amounts recorded by the individual inner canyon weather stations can vary substantially from station to station. Daily and seasonal rainfall patterns apparent in these data are not random. For example, the inner canyon record, although short and fragmented, reveals three episodes of widespread, heavy precipitation in late summer 2004, early winter 2005, and summer 2007. The 2004 event and several others had sufficient rainfall to initiate potentially pervasive erosion of the late Holocene terraces and related archeological features located along the Colorado River in Grand Canyon.

It's the Physics: Organized Complexity in the Arctic/Midlatitude Weather Controversy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Overland, J. E.; Francis, J. A.; Wang, M.

2017-12-01

There is intense scientific and public interest in whether major Arctic changes can and will impact mid-latitude weather. Despite numerous workshops and a growing literature, convergence of understanding is lacking, with major objections about possible large impacts within the scientific community. Yet research on the Arctic as a new potential driver in improving subseasonal forecasting at midlatitudes remains a priority. A recent review laid part of the controversy on shortcomings in experimental design and ill-suited metrics, such as examining the influence of only sea-ice loss rather than overall Arctic temperature amplification, and/or calculating averages over large regions, long time periods, or many ensemble members that would tend to obscure event-like Arctic connections. The present analysis lays the difficulty at a deeper level owing to the inherently complex physics. Jet-stream dynamics and weather linkages on the scale of a week to months has characteristics of an organized complex system, with large-scale processes that operate in patterned, quasi-geostrophic ways but whose component feedbacks are continually changing. Arctic linkages may be state dependent, i.e., relationships may be more robust in one atmospheric wave pattern than another, generating intermittency. The observational network is insufficient to fully initialize such a system and the inherent noise obscures linkage signals, leading to an underdetermined problem; often more than one explanation can fit the data. Further, the problem may be computationally irreducible; the only way to know the result of these interactions is to trace out their path over time. Modeling is a suggested approach, but at present it is unclear whether previous model studies fully resolve anticipated complexity. The jet stream from autumn to early winter is characterized by non-linear interactions among enhanced atmospheric planetary waves, irregular transitions between the zonal and meridional flows, and the maintenance of atmospheric blocks (near stationary large amplitude atmospheric waves). For weather forecast improvement, but not necessarily to elucidate mechanism of linkages, a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) approach is appropriate; such is the plan for the upcoming Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP).

Winter air-mass-based synoptic climatological approach and hospital admissions for myocardial infarction in Florence, Italy.

PubMed

Morabito, Marco; Crisci, Alfonso; Grifoni, Daniele; Orlandini, Simone; Cecchi, Lorenzo; Bacci, Laura; Modesti, Pietro Amedeo; Gensini, Gian Franco; Maracchi, Giampiero

2006-09-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between the risk of hospital admission for myocardial infarction (MI) and the daily weather conditions during the winters of 1998-2003, according to an air-mass-based synoptic climatological approach. The effects of time lag and 2-day sequences with specific air mass types were also investigated. Studies concerning the relationship between atmospheric conditions and human health need to take into consideration simultaneous effects of many weather variables. At the moment few studies have surveyed these effects on hospitalizations for MI. Analyses were concentrated on winter, when the maximum peak of hospitalization occurred. An objective daily air mass classification by means of statistical analyses based on ground meteorological data was carried out. A comparison between air mass classification and hospital admissions was made by the calculation of a MI admission index, and to detect significant relationships the Mann-Whitney U test, the analysis of variance, and the Bonferroni test were used. Significant increases in hospital admissions for MI were evident 24h after a day characterized by an anticyclonic continental air mass and 6 days after a day characterized by a cyclonic air mass. Increased risk of hospitalization was found even when specific 2-day air mass sequences occurred. These results represent an important step in identifying reliable linkages between weather and health.

The influence of environment, sex, and innate timing mechanisms on body temperature patterns of free-ranging black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus).

PubMed

Lehmer, Erin M; Bossenbroek, Jonathan M; Van Horne, Beatrice

2003-01-01

Mechanisms that influence body temperature patterns in black-tailed prairie dogs are not well understood. Previous research on both free-ranging and laboratory populations of black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) has suggested that reductions in ambient temperature and food and water deprivation are the primary factors that stimulate torpor in this species. In other species, however, torpor has been shown to be influenced by a multitude of factors, including innate circadian and circannual timing mechanisms, energy status, and reproductive behaviors. Our objective was to clarify the influence of weather, sex, and intrinsic timing mechanisms on the body temperature patterns of free-ranging black-tailed prairie dogs. We monitored body temperatures of eight adult (>1 yr) prairie dogs from November 1999 to June 2000. Prairie dogs showed distinct daily and seasonal body temperature patterns, which reflected changes in ambient temperatures that occurred during these periods. These patterns of daily and seasonal heterothermy suggest that body temperature patterns of black-tailed prairie dogs may be driven by an innate timing mechanism. All prairie dogs entered torpor intermittently throughout winter and spring. Torpor bouts appeared to be influenced by precipitation and reductions in ambient temperature. Our results also suggest that reproductive behaviors and circadian timing may influence torpor in this species.

The feasibility study of corridor system in the commercial downtown area of winter cities based on behavioural architecture—A case study of Harbin Qiulin commercial area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Lingling; Zhao, Jiaqi

2018-05-01

The commercial centre area is a critical part of urban land and it is public space which integrates shopping, leisure and entertainment. Due to the severe weather, winter cities have some problems such as inconvenient behaviours and lack of commercial vitality in winter. From the perspective of behavioural architecture, this paper adopts several methods of field observation, questionnaire survey, and instrumental measurement to study on the renovation design of Harbin Qiulin commercial area. Through this study, an implementable scheme for adding corridor system to activate commercial vitality in the commercial centre of winter cities has been obtained. It is expected to provide a reference for the commercial area design of winter cities in the future.

Influence of sub-kilometer precipitation datasets on simulated snowpack and glacier winter balance in alpine terrain.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vionnet, Vincent; Six, Delphine; Auger, Ludovic; Lafaysse, Matthieu; Quéno, Louis; Réveillet, Marion; Dombrowski-Etchevers, Ingrid; Thibert, Emmanuel; Dumont, Marie

2017-04-01

Capturing spatial and temporal variabilities of meteorological conditions at fine scale is necessary for modelling snowpack and glacier winter mass balance in alpine terrain. In particular, precipitation amount and phase are strongly influenced by the complex topography. In this study, we assess the impact of three sub-kilometer precipitation datasets (rainfall and snowfall) on distributed simulations of snowpack and glacier winter mass balance with the detailed snowpack model Crocus for winter 2011-2012. The different precipitation datasets at 500-m grid spacing over part of the French Alps (200*200 km2 area) are coming either from (i) the SAFRAN precipitation analysis specially developed for alpine terrain, or from (ii) operational outputs of the atmospheric model AROME at 2.5-km grid spacing downscaled to 500 m with fixed lapse rate or from (iii) a version of the atmospheric model AROME at 500-m grid spacing. Others atmospherics forcings (air temperature and humidity, incoming longwave and shortwave radiation, wind speed) are taken from the AROME simulations at 500-m grid spacing. These atmospheric forcings are firstly compared against a network of automatic weather stations. Results are analysed with respect to station location (valley, mid- and high-altitude). The spatial pattern of seasonal snowfall and its dependency with elevation is then analysed for the different precipitation datasets. Large differences between SAFRAN and the two versions of AROME are found at high-altitude. Finally, results of Crocus snowpack simulations are evaluated against (i) punctual in-situ measurements of snow depth and snow water equivalent, and (ii) maps of snow covered areas retrieved from optical satellite data (MODIS). Measurements of winter accumulation of six glaciers of the French Alps are also used and provide very valuable information on precipitation at high-altitude where the conventional observation network is scarce. This study illustrates the potential and limitations of high-resolution atmospheric models to drive simulations of snowpack and glacier winter mass balance in alpine terrain.

Satellite Shows a Mid-Atlantic St. Patrick's Day Snow

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-03-17

The green of St. Patrick's Day in the Mid-Atlantic was covered by white snow as a result of a late winter snow storm. The covering of the green was captured in a movie made at NASA using NOAA's GOES satellite data. The winter storm dropped snow totals from 6" to 12" of snow from Baltimore, Md. to Richmond, Va. The storm arrived during the evening of March 16 and continued through March 17. As of 1 p.m. EDT, light bands of snow continued to fall throughout the Washington, D.C. area. NOAA's GOES-East satellite captured the path the storm took through the Mid-Atlantic as it moved in from the west on March 15 and dropped snow March 16 and 17. NOAA's GOES-East satellite sits in a fixed orbit in space and captures visible and infrared imagery of all weather over the eastern U.S. and Atlantic Ocean. As of 1 p.m. EDT on March 17, the National Weather Service still maintained a Winter Storm Warning from Cecil County in northeastern Maryland that stretched west to Frederick County. The warning continued in Virginia counties including Clarke, Warren, Rappahannock, Madison and stretched to Albemarle and southwest. Southeastern counties in Virginia south of the city of Fredericksburg remained under a Winter Weather Advisory. GOES satellites provide the kind of continuous monitoring necessary for intensive data analysis. Geostationary describes an orbit in which a satellite is always in the same position with respect to the rotating Earth. This allows GOES to hover continuously over one position on Earth's surface, appearing stationary. As a result, GOES provide a constant vigil for the atmospheric "triggers" for severe weather conditions such as tornadoes, flash floods, hail storms and hurricanes. For updated information about the storm system, visit NOAA's NWS website: www.weather.gov For more information about GOES satellites, visit: www.goes.noaa.gov/ or goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/ Rob Gutro NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Linking crop yield anomalies to large-scale atmospheric circulation in Europe.

PubMed

Ceglar, Andrej; Turco, Marco; Toreti, Andrea; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J

2017-06-15

Understanding the effects of climate variability and extremes on crop growth and development represents a necessary step to assess the resilience of agricultural systems to changing climate conditions. This study investigates the links between the large-scale atmospheric circulation and crop yields in Europe, providing the basis to develop seasonal crop yield forecasting and thus enabling a more effective and dynamic adaptation to climate variability and change. Four dominant modes of large-scale atmospheric variability have been used: North Atlantic Oscillation, Eastern Atlantic, Scandinavian and Eastern Atlantic-Western Russia patterns. Large-scale atmospheric circulation explains on average 43% of inter-annual winter wheat yield variability, ranging between 20% and 70% across countries. As for grain maize, the average explained variability is 38%, ranging between 20% and 58%. Spatially, the skill of the developed statistical models strongly depends on the large-scale atmospheric variability impact on weather at the regional level, especially during the most sensitive growth stages of flowering and grain filling. Our results also suggest that preceding atmospheric conditions might provide an important source of predictability especially for maize yields in south-eastern Europe. Since the seasonal predictability of large-scale atmospheric patterns is generally higher than the one of surface weather variables (e.g. precipitation) in Europe, seasonal crop yield prediction could benefit from the integration of derived statistical models exploiting the dynamical seasonal forecast of large-scale atmospheric circulation.

The effect of the weather on pulmonary exacerbations and viral infections among adults with cystic fibrosis.

PubMed

Flight, W G; Bright-Thomas, R J; Sarran, C; Mutton, K J; Morris, J; Webb, A K; Jones, A M

2014-11-01

The effect of changes in the weather on the respiratory health of patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) is unclear. We conducted a prospective study to determine the impact of climate and season on the incidence of viral respiratory infections (VRI) and pulmonary exacerbations (PEx) among adults with CF. Between December 2010 and April 2012, 98 adults with CF were followed for 12 months. Polymerase chain reaction assays for nine viruses were performed on sputum, nose and throat swabs every 2 months and additionally at onset of PEx. Hourly temperature and relative humidity measurements were recorded throughout the study. Statistical analysis utilized generalized estimating equation (GEE) models. Pre-specified criteria for VRI and PEx were met at 29% and 37% of visits, respectively. Rhinovirus accounted for 72% of identified viruses. Incidence of rhinovirus peaked in autumn while non-rhinovirus VRI peaked in winter. Rhinovirus was associated with increased mean temperatures (OR 1.07; p = 0.001), while non-rhinovirus VRI was associated with lower mean temperatures (OR 0.87; p < 0.001). PEx occurred frequently throughout the study with no clear seasonal pattern observed. There was no significant association between climate variables and the incidence of either PEx or antibiotic prescription. There is a seasonal pattern to VRI in adults with CF. The incidence of VRI but not PEx is associated with changes in ambient temperature.

Ice on waterfowl markers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Greenwood, R.J.; Bair, W.C.

1974-01-01

Wild and captive giant Canada geese (Branta canadensis maxima) and captive mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) accumulated ice on neck collars and/or nasal saddles during winter storm periods in 1971 and 1972. Weather conditions associated with icing were documented, and characteristics of icing are discussed. Severe marker icing occurred during subfreezing weather when the windchill reached approximately -37 deg.C. Birds appeared able to de-ice nasal saddles in most instances.

Comparing the influence of sunspot activity and geomagnetic activity on winter surface climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maliniemi, Ville; Mursula, Kalevi; Roy, Indrani; Asikainen, Timo

2017-04-01

We compare here the effect of geomagnetic activity (using the aa index) and sunspot activity on surface climate using sea level pressure dataset from Hadley centre during northern winter. Previous studies using the multiple linear regression method have been limited to using sunspots as a solar activity predictor. Sunspots and total solar irradiance indicate a robust positive influence around the Aleutian Low. This is valid up to a lag of one year. However, geomagnetic activity yields a positive NAM pattern at high to polar latitudes and a positive signal around Azores High pressure region. Interestingly, while there is a positive signal around Azores High for a 2-year lag in sunspots, the strongest signal in this region is found for aa index at 1-year lag. There is also a weak but significant negative signature present around central Pacific for both sunspots and aa index. The combined influence of geomagnetic activity and Quasi Biannual Oscillation (QBO 30 hPa) produces a particularly strong response at mid to polar latitudes, much stronger than the combined influence of sunspots and QBO, which was mostly studied in previous studies so far. This signal is robust and insensitive to the selected time period during the last century. Our results provide a useful way for improving the prediction of winter weather at middle to high latitudes of the northern hemisphere.

Climate Change driven evolution of hazards to Europe's transport infrastructure throughout the twenty-first century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matulla, Christoph; Hollósi, Brigitta; Andre, Konrad; Gringinger, Julia; Chimani, Barbara; Namyslo, Joachim; Fuchs, Tobias; Auerbach, Markus; Herrmann, Carina; Sladek, Brigitte; Berghold, Heimo; Gschier, Roland; Eichinger-Vill, Eva

2017-06-01

Road authorities, freight, and logistic industries face a multitude of challenges in a world changing at an ever growing pace. While globalization, changes in technology, demography, and traffic, for instance, have received much attention over the bygone decades, climate change has not been treated with equal care until recently. However, since it has been recognized that climate change jeopardizes many business areas in transport, freight, and logistics, research programs investigating future threats have been initiated. One of these programs is the Conference of European Directors of Roads' (CEDR) Transnational Research Programme (TRP), which emerged about a decade ago from a cooperation between European National Road Authorities and the EU. This paper presents findings of a CEDR project called CliPDaR, which has been designed to answer questions from road authorities concerning climate-driven future threats to transport infrastructure. Pertaining results are based on two potential future socio-economic pathways of mankind (one strongly economically oriented "A2" and one more balanced scenario "A1B"), which are used to drive global climate models (GCMs) producing global and continental scale climate change projections. In order to achieve climate change projections, which are valid on regional scales, GCM projections are downscaled by regional climate models. Results shown here originate from research questions raised by European Road Authorities. They refer to future occurrence frequencies of severely cold winter seasons in Fennoscandia, to particularly hot summer seasons in the Iberian Peninsula and to changes in extreme weather phenomena triggering landslides and rutting in Central Europe. Future occurrence frequencies of extreme winter and summer conditions are investigated by empirical orthogonal function analyses of GCM projections driven with by A2 and A1B pathways. The analysis of future weather phenomena triggering landslides and rutting events requires downscaled climate change projections. Hence, corresponding results are based on an ensemble of RCM projections, which was available for the A1B scenario. All analyzed risks to transport infrastructure are found to increase over the decades ahead with accelerating pace towards the end of this century. Mean Fennoscandian winter temperatures by the end of this century may match conditions of rather warm winter season experienced in the past and particularly warm future winter temperatures have not been observed so far. This applies in an even more pronounced manner to summer seasons in the Iberian Peninsula. Occurrence frequencies of extreme climate phenomena triggering landslides and rutting events in Central Europe are also projected to rise. Results show spatially differentiated patterns and indicate accelerated rates of increases.

A tree-ring based reconstruction of North Pacific Jet variability and its influence on Sierra Nevada fire regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trouet, V.; Babst, F.; Betancourt, J. L.

2013-12-01

Over the last decade, the northern hemisphere polar jet stream - the fast-flowing, high-altitude westerly air current that flows over mid and northern latitudes - has experienced a more meridional (north-south) and slower wave progression. This anomalous behavior contributed to extreme mid-latitude weather events across the globe, including drought and forest fires in the American Southwest (2012), summer heatwaves in Russia (2010), and floods in central and western Europe (2007). The position of the North Pacific Jet (NPJ) strongly modulates winter hydroclimatology in the Sierra Nevada and the Central Rocky Mountains; moreover, a persistent southerly (northerly) trajectory can offset (reinforce) losses in regional snowpack predicted with greenhouse warming . Snowpack variability has a fundamental impact on water resources and ecosystem disturbances. An increase in wildfire activity in the American West since the mid-1980s, for instance, has been related to decreasing snowpacks and earlier and faster snowmelt. Recent anomalous, high-amplitude, jet stream fluctuations are consistent with model projections forced by greenhouse gases. By weakening the pole-equator temperature gradient, enhanced Arctic warming in particular may cause the jet to slow and extreme weather patterns (e.g., blocking high pressure cells) to persist. Questions exist about the ability of climate models to simulate jet stream dynamics, however, and the instrumental record is still too short to fully evaluate the natural range of jet stream variability. We developed a reconstruction of winter NPJ variability from tree-ring data at two locations where climate is strongly influenced by the latitudinal NPJ position. We combined Blue Oak (Quercus douglasii) data from central California with climate-sensitive tree-ring series from multiple species in the northern Rockies in a nested PCA model that explained up to 41% of the variance in the instrumental NPJ target. The resulting reconstruction (1409-1990) demonstrates interannual to decadal-scale variability in the latitudinal position of the winter NPJ, and shows that its southern diplacement in recent decades (1991-2010) is unusual for the last 600 years. Furthermore, we found a strong relationship between reconstructed NPJ position and historical (1700-1850) fire activity in the Sierra Nevada, with increased (decreased) fire activity occurring after winters with an anomalously northerly (southerly) NPJ position. This relationship between winter climate and the normal fire season (July to October) is linked to the seasonal snowpack amounts and the timing of snowmelt and leafout, and is important in the prediction of problematic fire seasons.

Price, Weather, and `Acreage Abandonment' in Western Great Plains Wheat Culture.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michaels, Patrick J.

1983-07-01

Multivariate analyses of acreage abandonment patterns in the U.S. Great Plains winter wheat region indicate that the major mode of variation is an in-phase oscillation confined to the western half of the overall area, which is also the area with lowest average yields. This is one of the more agroclimatically marginal environments in the United States, with wide interannual fluctuations in both climate and profitability.We developed a multiple regression model to determine the relative roles of weather and expected price in the decision not to harvest. The overall model explained 77% of the spatial and temporal variation in abandonment. The 36.5% of the non-spatial variation was explained by two simple transformations of climatic data from three monthly aggregates-September-October, November-February and March-April. Price factors, expressed as indexed future delivery quotations,were barely significant, with only between 3 and 5% of the non-spatial variation explained, depending upon the model.The model was based upon weather, climate and price data from 1932 through 1975. It was tested by sequentially withholding three-year blocks of data, and using the respecified regression coefficients, along with observed weather and price, to estimate abandonment in the withheld years. Error analyses indicate no loss of model fidelity in the test mode. Also, prediction errors in the 1970-75 period, characterized by widely fluctuating prices, were not different from those in the rest of the model.The overall results suggest that the perceived quality of the crop, as influenced by weather, is a much more important determinant of the abandonment decision than are expected returns based upon price considerations.

Winter Weather

MedlinePlus

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Comparison of sea level pressure reconstructions from western North American tree rings with a proxy record of winter severity in Japan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gordon, G.A.; Lough, J.M.; Fritts, H.C.

Reconstructions of winter (December-February) sea level pressure (SLP) from western North American tree-ring chronologies are compared with a proxy record of winter severity in Japan derived from the historically documented freeze dates of Lake Suwa. The SLP reconstructions extend from 1602 to 1961 and freeze dates from 1443 to 1954. The instrumental and reconstructed SLP for the 20th century reveal two distinct circulation regimes (teleconnection patterns) over the North Pacific that appear to be associated with severe and mild winters and, consequently, with early and late freezing of the lake. The reconstructed SLPO anomaly map for severe winters prior tomore » 1683 shows a pattern similar to those in the instrumental and reconstructed records of the 20th century. The analysis reveals that the reliability of the reconstruction may vary with the configuration of the actual SLP pattern as the mild winter pattern is not as well reconstructed as the severe winter pattern. That result illustrates the importance of testing the reliability of a reconstruction within the context of the intended interpretation. This analysis demonstrates how different types of proxy climate data can be compared and verified.« less

[LESSONS FROM PREPAREDNESS OF HOSPITALS TO SNOWSTORMS].

PubMed

Merin, Ofer; Goldberg, Sara; Peyser, Amos; Gros, Moshe; Weiss, Gali; Bitan, Aria; Zarka, Salman; Shapira, Kelin

2015-11-01

Snowstorms are not a usual scene in Israel, which normally enjoys relatively warm weather, even in the winter. In the last two years we faced three severe snowstorms that had a major impact on the routine daily life in Israel. Roads were blocked, people experienced long electricity power failures, and secondary to slippery conditions, there was more than a threefold increase of orthopedic injuries. These storms confronted hospitals with unique challenges, both medical and logistic. Hospitals must be prepared to cope with the challenge of maintaining continuation of care. We propose four phases of preparedness strategy: at the beginning of the winter, once there is a weather forecast warning, during the storm itself, and returning to norm. This manuscript deals with the lessons learned by two hospitals in Safed and Jerusalem dealing with snowstorms.

Toxicity of parathion to captive European starlings (Sturnus vulgaris)-absence of seasonal effects

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rattner, B.A.; Grue, C.E.

1990-01-01

The effects of season on the toxicity of the prototypic organophosphorus insecticide parathion was evaluated using adult European starlings (Sturnus vulgaris) housed in outdoor pens. Groups of birds received oral doses of parathion in the fall, winter, spring and summer. Median lethal dosage, and brain and plasma cholinesterase inhibition, were found to be quite similar among seasons. Parathion may have been more toxic during hot weather (winter vs. summer LD50 estimate: 160 vs. 118 mg/kg; p < 0.1). In view of previous reports in which ambient temperature extremes and harsh weather have enhanced organophosphorus insecticide toxicity to birds, it is concluded that circannual toxicity studies should include measures of sensitivity (acute oral exposure) and vulnerability (dietary exposure) to better predict responses of free-ranging birds.

KSC-06pd1275

NASA Image and Video Library

2006-06-28

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - At the Cape Canaveral weather station in Florida, a member of the weather team prepares a Rawinsonde weather balloon for release. The release was planned as part of a media tour prior to the launch of Space Shuttle Discovery on mission STS-121 July 1. At the facility, which is operated by the U.S. Air Force 45th Weather Squadron, media saw the tools used by the weather team to create the forecast for launch day. They received a briefing on how the launch weather forecast is developed by Shuttle Weather Officer Kathy Winters and met the forecasters for the space shuttle and the expendable launch vehicles. Also participating were members of the Applied Meteorology Unit who provide special expertise to the forecasters by analyzing and interpreting unusual or inconsistent weather data. The media were able to see the release of the Rawinsonde weather balloon carrying instruments aloft to be used as part of developing the forecast. Photo credit: NASA/George Shelton

Flight Awareness Collaboration Tool Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mogford, Richard

2016-01-01

This is a PowerPoint presentation covering airline operations center (AOC) research. It reviews a dispatcher decision support tool called the Flight Awareness Collaboration Tool (FACT). FACT gathers information about winter weather onto one screen and includes predictive abilities. FACT should prove to be useful for airline dispatchers and airport personnel when they manage winter storms and their effect on air traffic. This material is very similar to other previously approved presentations.

Public health vulnerability to wintertime weather: time-series regression and episode analyses of national mortality and morbidity databases to inform the Cold Weather Plan for England.

PubMed

Hajat, S; Chalabi, Z; Wilkinson, P; Erens, B; Jones, L; Mays, N

2016-08-01

To inform development of Public Health England's Cold Weather Plan (CWP) by characterizing pre-existing relationships between wintertime weather and mortality and morbidity outcomes, and identification of groups most at risk. Time-series regression analysis and episode analysis of daily mortality, emergency hospital admissions, and accident and emergency visits for each region of England. Seasonally-adjusted Poisson regression models estimating the percent change in daily health events per 1 °C fall in temperature or during individual episodes of extreme weather. Adverse cold effects were observed in all regions, with the North East, North West and London having the greatest risk of cold-related mortality. Nationally, there was a 3.44% (95% CI: 3.01, 3.87) increase in all-cause deaths and 0.78% (95% CI: 0.53, 1.04) increase in all-cause emergency admissions for every 1 °C drop in temperature below identified thresholds. The very elderly and people with COPD were most at risk from low temperatures. A&E visits for fractures were elevated during heavy snowfall periods, with adults (16-64 years) being the most sensitive age-group. Since even moderately cold days are associated with adverse health effects, by far the greatest health burdens of cold weather fell outside of the alert periods currently used in the CWP. Our findings indicate that levels 0 ('year round planning') and 1 ('winter preparedness and action') are crucial components of the CWP in comparison to the alerts. Those most vulnerable during winter may vary depending on the type of weather conditions being experienced. Recommendations are made for the CWP. Copyright © 2016 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Winter Weather: Frostbite

MedlinePlus

... can be easily burned. These procedures are not substitutes for proper medical care. Hypothermia is a medical ... No Fear Act OIG 1600 Clifton Road Atlanta , GA 30329-4027 USA 800-CDC-INFO (800-232- ...

Winter Weather Checklists

MedlinePlus

... walkways Supply of cat litter or bag of sand to add traction on walkways Flashlight and extra ... sealant for emergency tire repair Road salt and sand to help tires get traction Booster cables Emergency ...

The winter season - Northern Great Plains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lambeth, David O.; Faanes, Craig A.

1981-01-01

This winter was hardly a winter by usual standards. At Grand Forks six record highs were set in February, a month which averaged 11°F above normal, and a -20° reading was not recorded the entire season for the first time in 50 years. Fort Peck Lake in Montana finally iced over February 12, only to begin reopening three days later (CMC). Temperatures reached into the 70s in South Dakota and that state was "powdery dry" as a result of the driest weather in 37 years (EMS, DLB). Across the Region, snow cover was either absent or inconsequential.

A methodology to leverage cross-sectional accelerometry to capture weather's influence in active living research.

PubMed

Katapally, Tarun R; Rainham, Daniel; Muhajarine, Nazeem

2016-06-27

While active living interventions focus on modifying urban design and built environment, weather variation, a phenomenon that perennially interacts with these environmental factors, is consistently underexplored. This study's objective is to develop a methodology to link weather data with existing cross-sectional accelerometry data in capturing weather variation. Saskatoon's neighbourhoods were classified into grid-pattern, fractured grid-pattern and curvilinear neighbourhoods. Thereafter, 137 Actical accelerometers were used to derive moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and sedentary behaviour (SB) data from 455 children in 25 sequential one-week cycles between April and June, 2010. This sequential deployment was necessary to overcome the difference in the ratio between the sample size and the number of accelerometers. A data linkage methodology was developed, where each accelerometry cycle was matched with localized (Saskatoon-specific) weather patterns derived from Environment Canada. Statistical analyses were conducted to depict the influence of urban design on MVPA and SB after factoring in localized weather patterns. Integration of cross-sectional accelerometry with localized weather patterns allowed the capture of weather variation during a single seasonal transition. Overall, during the transition from spring to summer in Saskatoon, MVPA increased and SB decreased during warmer days. After factoring in localized weather, a recurring observation was that children residing in fractured grid-pattern neighbourhoods accumulated significantly lower MVPA and higher SB. The proposed methodology could be utilized to link globally available cross-sectional accelerometry data with place-specific weather data to understand how built and social environmental factors interact with varying weather patterns in influencing active living.

Association between weather conditions and the number of patients at the emergency room in an Argentine hospital

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rusticucci, Matilde; Bettolli, Laura M.; de los Angeles Harris, M.

2002-02-01

The aim of this paper is to study the relationships between hospital emergencies and weather conditions by analysing summer and winter cases of patients requiring attention at the emergency room of a hospital in the city of Buenos Aires, Argentina. Hospital data have been sorted into seven different diagnostic groups as follows: (1) respiratory, cardiovascular and chest-pain complaints; (2) digestive, genitourinary and abdominal complaints; (3) neurological and psychopathological disorders; (4) infections; (5) contusion and crushing, bone and muscle complaints; (6) skin and allergies and (7) miscellaneous complaints. In general, there is an increase of 16.7% in winter while, for group 2 and group 6, there are more patients in summer, 54% and 75% respectively. In summer, the total number of patients for group 6 shows a significant positive correlation with temperature and dew-point temperature, and a negative correlation with the sea-level pressure for the same day. In winter, the same relationship exists, however its correlation is not as strong. The lags observed between these three variables: maximum dew-point temperature, maximum temperature, minimum air pressure and the peaks in admissions are 1, 2 and 4 days respectively. In winter, increases in temperature and dew point and decreases in pressure are followed by a peak in admissions for group 2. In winter, there are significantly more cases in group 5 on warm, dry days and on warm, wet days in the summer.

The value of snow cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sokratov, S. A.

2009-04-01

Snow is the natural resource, like soil and water. It has specific properties which allow its use not just for skiing but also for houses cooling in summer (Swedish experience), for air fields construction (Arctic and Antarctic), for dams (north of Russia), for buildings (not only snow-houses of some Polar peoples but artistic hotel attracting tourists in Sweden), and as art material (Sapporo snow festival, Finnish events), etc. "Adjustment" of snow distribution and amount is not only rather common practice (avalanche-protection constructions keeping snow on slopes) but also the practice with long history. So-called "snow irrigation" was used in Russia since XIX century to protect winter crop. What is now named "artificial snow production", is part of much larger pattern. What makes it special—it is unavoidable in present climate and economy situation. 5% of national income in Austria is winter tourism. 50% of the economy in Savoy relay on winter tourism. In terms of money this can be less, but in terms of jobs and income involved this would be even more considerable in Switzerland. As an example—the population of Davos is 14000 in Summer and 50000 in Winter. Skiing is growing business. In present time you can find ski slopes in Turkey and Lebanon. To keep a cite suitable for attracting tourists you need certain amount of sunny days and certain amount of snow. The snow cannons are often the only way to keep a place running. On the other hand, more artificial snow does not necessary attract more tourists, while heavy natural snowfall does attract them. Artificial snow making is costly and requires infrastructure (ponds and electric lines) with very narrow range of weather conditions. Related companies are searching for alternatives and one of them can be "weather regulation" by distribution of some chemical components in clouds. It did not happen yet, but can happen soon. The consequences of such interference in Nature is hardly known. The ski tourism is not the only and not even the main outcome from snow cover use. The value of snow cover for agriculture, water resources, industry and transportation is so naturally inside the activities that is not often quantified. However, any considerations of adaptation strategies for climate change with changing snow conditions need such quantification.

Winter Weather: Indoor Safety

MedlinePlus

... Use flashlights or lanterns instead. Never use an electric generator or a gas or charcoal grill indoors. ... heater. Make sure that the cord of an electric space heater is not a tripping hazard but ...

Two Dimensional Movement Patterns of Juvenile Winter Run and Late Fall Run Chinook Salmon at the Fremont Weir, Sacramento River, CA

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-07-01

ER D C/ EL T R- 17 -1 0 Two-Dimensional Movement Patterns of Juvenile Winter- Run and Late-Fall- Run Chinook Salmon at the Fremont Weir...default. ERDC/EL TR-17-10 July 2017 Two-Dimensional Movement Patterns of Juvenile Winter- Run and Late-Fall- Run Chinook Salmon at the Fremont Weir...Sacramento River, smaller winter- run Chinook and larger late-fall- run Chinook salmon were tagged and released into a 2D telemetry array dur- ing the

GOES-S Prelaunch News Conference

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-02-27

GOES-S Prelaunch News Conference hosted by NASA Communications' Tori Mclendon, with Stephen Volz, Director for Satellite and Information Services, NOAA; Tim Walsh, GOES-R system program director (acting), NOAA; Sandra Smalley, Director, NASA Joint Agency Satellite Division; Tim Dunn, NASA Launch Director, Kennedy Space Center, Florida; Scott Messer, Program Manager, NASA Missions, United Launch Alliance; and Kathy Winters, Launch Weather Officer, 45th Weather Squadron, Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida.

On the relationship between atmospheric rivers, weather types and floods in Galicia (NW Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eiras-Barca, Jorge; Lorenzo, Nieves; Taboada, Juan; Robles, Alba; Miguez-Macho, Gonzalo

2018-06-01

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) - long and narrow structures of anomalously high water vapor flux located in the warm sector of extratropical cyclones - have been shown to be closely related to extreme precipitation and flooding. In this paper we analyze the connection between ARs and flooding in the northwestern Spanish region of Galicia under a variety of synoptic conditions represented by the so-called weather types, a classification of daily sea-level pressure patterns obtained by means of a simple scheme that adopts the subjective procedure of Lamb. Flood events are identified from official reports conducted by the Spanish emergency management agency (Protección Civil) from 1979 to 2010. Our results suggest that, although most flood events in Galicia do not coincide with the presence of an overhead AR, ARs are present in the majority of severe cases, particularly in coastal areas. Flood events associated with ARs are connected to cyclonic weather types with westerly and southwesterly flows, which occur mostly in winter months. The link between ARs and severe flooding is not very apparent in inland areas or during summer months, in which case heavy precipitation is usually not frontal in nature but rather convective. Nevertheless, our results show that, in general, the amount of precipitation in flood events in Galicia more than doubles when an AR is present.

Biophysical Variables Retrieval Over Russian Winter Wheat Fields Using Medium Resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

d'Andrimont, Raphael; Waldner, Francois; Bartalev, Sergey; Plotnikov, Dmitry; Kleschenko, Alexander; Virchenko, Oleg; de Wit, Allard; Roerink, Gerbert; Defourny, Pierre

2013-12-01

Winter wheat production in the Russian Federation represents one of the sources of uncertainty for the international commodity market. In particular, adverse weather conditions may induce winter kill resulting in large yields' losses. Improving the monitoring of winter- wheat in Russia with a focus on winter-kill damage and its impacts on yield is thus a key challenge.This paper presents the methods and the results of the biophysical variables retrieval on a daily basis as an input for crop growth modeling at parcel level over a 10-years period (2003-2012) in the Russian context. The field campaigns carried out on 2 sites in the Tula region from 2010 to 2012 shows that it is possible to characterize the spatial and temporal variability at pixel, field and regional scale using medium resolution sensors (MODIS) over Russian fields.

Winter movement dynamics of Black Brant

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lindberg, Mark S.; Ward, David H.; Tibbitts, T. Lee; Roser, John

2007-01-01

Although North American geese are managed based on their breeding distributions, the dynamics of those breeding populations may be affected by events that occur during the winter. Birth rates of capital breeding geese may be influenced by wintering conditions, mortality may be influenced by timing of migration and wintering distribution, and immigration and emigration among breeding populations may depend on winter movement and timing of pair formation. We examined factors affecting movements of black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) among their primary wintering sites in Mexico and southern California, USA, (Mar 1998-Mar 2000) using capture-recapture models. Although brant exhibited high probability (>0.85) of monthly and annual fidelity to the wintering sites we sampled, we observed movements among all wintering sites. Movement probabilities both within and among winters were negatively related to distance between sites. We observed a higher probability both of southward movement between winters (Mar to Dec) and northward movement between months within winters. Between-winter movements were probably most strongly affected by spatial and temporal variation in habitat quality as we saw movement patterns consistent with contrasting environmental conditions (e.g., La Niña and El Niño southern oscillation cycles). Month-to-month movements were related to migration patterns and may also have been affected by differences in habitat conditions among sites. Patterns of winter movements indicate that a network of wintering sites may be necessary for effective conservation of brant.

Winter movement dynamics of black brant

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lindberg, Mark S.; Ward, David H.; Tibbitts, T. Lee; Roser, John

2007-01-01

Although North American geese are managed based on their breeding distributions, the dynamics of those breeding populations may be affected by events that occur during the winter. Birth rates of capital breeding geese may be influenced by wintering conditions, mortality may be influenced by timing of migration and wintering distribution, and immigration and emigration among breeding populations may depend on winter movement and timing of pair formation. We examined factors affecting movements of black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) among their primary wintering sites in Mexico and southern California, USA, (Mar 1998–Mar 2000) using capture–recapture models. Although brant exhibited high probability (>0.85) of monthly and annual fidelity to the wintering sites we sampled, we observed movements among all wintering sites. Movement probabilities both within and among winters were negatively related to distance between sites. We observed a higher probability both of southward movement between winters (Mar to Dec) and northward movement between months within winters. Between-winter movements were probably most strongly affected by spatial and temporal variation in habitat quality as we saw movement patterns consistent with contrasting environmental conditions (e.g., La Niña and El Niño southern oscillation cycles). Month-to-month movements were related to migration patterns and may also have been affected by differences in habitat conditions among sites. Patterns of winter movements indicate that a network of wintering sites may be necessary for effective conservation of brant.

Early prediction of extreme stratospheric polar vortex states based on causal precursors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kretschmer, Marlene; Runge, Jakob; Coumou, Dim

2017-08-01

Variability in the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) can influence the tropospheric circulation and thereby winter weather. Early predictions of extreme SPV states are thus important to improve forecasts of winter weather including cold spells. However, dynamical models are usually restricted in lead time because they poorly capture low-frequency processes. Empirical models often suffer from overfitting problems as the relevant physical processes and time lags are often not well understood. Here we introduce a novel empirical prediction method by uniting a response-guided community detection scheme with a causal discovery algorithm. This way, we objectively identify causal precursors of the SPV at subseasonal lead times and find them to be in good agreement with known physical drivers. A linear regression prediction model based on the causal precursors can explain most SPV variability (r2 = 0.58), and our scheme correctly predicts 58% (46%) of extremely weak SPV states for lead times of 1-15 (16-30) days with false-alarm rates of only approximately 5%. Our method can be applied to any variable relevant for (sub)seasonal weather forecasts and could thus help improving long-lead predictions.

KSC-06pd1278

NASA Image and Video Library

2006-06-28

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - At the Cape Canaveral weather station in Florida, workers release an upper-level weather balloon while several newscasters watch. The release of the balloon was part of a media tour prior to the launch of Space Shuttle Discovery on mission STS-121 July 1. The radar-tracked balloon detects wind shears that can affect a shuttle launch. At the facility, which is operated by the U.S. Air Force 45th Weather Squadron, media saw the tools used by the weather team to create the forecast for launch day. They received a briefing on how the launch weather forecast is developed by Shuttle Weather Officer Kathy Winters and met the forecasters for the space shuttle and the expendable launch vehicles. Also participating were members of the Applied Meteorology Unit who provide special expertise to the forecasters by analyzing and interpreting unusual or inconsistent weather data. The media were able to see the release of the Rawinsonde weather balloon carrying instruments aloft to be used as part of developing the forecast. Photo credit: NASA/George Shelton

KSC-06pd1277

NASA Image and Video Library

2006-06-28

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - At the Cape Canaveral weather station in Florida, workers carry an upper-level weather balloon outside for release. The release was part of a media tour prior to the launch of Space Shuttle Discovery on mission STS-121 July 1. The radar-tracked balloon detects wind shears that can affect a shuttle launch. At the facility, which is operated by the U.S. Air Force 45th Weather Squadron, media saw the tools used by the weather team to create the forecast for launch day. They received a briefing on how the launch weather forecast is developed by Shuttle Weather Officer Kathy Winters and met the forecasters for the space shuttle and the expendable launch vehicles. Also participating were members of the Applied Meteorology Unit who provide special expertise to the forecasters by analyzing and interpreting unusual or inconsistent weather data. The media were able to see the release of the Rawinsonde weather balloon carrying instruments aloft to be used as part of developing the forecast. Photo credit: NASA/George Shelton

KSC-06pd1280

NASA Image and Video Library

2006-06-28

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - An upper-level weather balloon sails into the sky after release from the Cape Canaveral weather station in Florida. The release was planned as part of a media tour prior to the launch of Space Shuttle Discovery on mission STS-121 July 1. The radar-tracked balloon detects wind shears that can affect a shuttle launch. At the facility, which is operated by the U.S. Air Force 45th Weather Squadron, media saw the tools used by the weather team to create the forecast for launch day. They received a briefing on how the launch weather forecast is developed by Shuttle Weather Officer Kathy Winters and met the forecasters for the space shuttle and the expendable launch vehicles. Also participating were members of the Applied Meteorology Unit who provide special expertise to the forecasters by analyzing and interpreting unusual or inconsistent weather data. The media were able to see the release of the Rawinsonde weather balloon carrying instruments aloft to be used as part of developing the forecast. Photo credit: NASA/George Shelton

Winter Weather Response Guide

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-10-01

The Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) has been given statutory authority for the : planning, design, construction, operation, and maintenance of the State Highway System. With : few new highways being constructed, the operation and maintenan...

Winter Storms and Extreme Cold

MedlinePlus

... your home to keep out the cold with insulation, caulking, and weather stripping. Learn how to keep ... and grills outdoors and away from windows. Never heat your home with a gas stovetop or oven. ...

Fat, weather, and date affect migratory songbirds' departure decisions, routes, and time it takes to cross the Gulf of Mexico.

PubMed

Deppe, Jill L; Ward, Michael P; Bolus, Rachel T; Diehl, Robert H; Celis-Murillo, Antonio; Zenzal, Theodore J; Moore, Frank R; Benson, Thomas J; Smolinsky, Jaclyn A; Schofield, Lynn N; Enstrom, David A; Paxton, Eben H; Bohrer, Gil; Beveroth, Tara A; Raim, Arlo; Obringer, Renee L; Delaney, David; Cochran, William W

2015-11-17

Approximately two thirds of migratory songbirds in eastern North America negotiate the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), where inclement weather coupled with no refueling or resting opportunities can be lethal. However, decisions made when navigating such features and their consequences remain largely unknown due to technological limitations of tracking small animals over large areas. We used automated radio telemetry to track three songbird species (Red-eyed Vireo, Swainson's Thrush, Wood Thrush) from coastal Alabama to the northern Yucatan Peninsula (YP) during fall migration. Detecting songbirds after crossing ∼1,000 km of open water allowed us to examine intrinsic (age, wing length, fat) and extrinsic (weather, date) variables shaping departure decisions, arrival at the YP, and crossing times. Large fat reserves and low humidity, indicative of beneficial synoptic weather patterns, favored southward departure across the Gulf. Individuals detected in the YP departed with large fat reserves and later in the fall with profitable winds, and flight durations (mean = 22.4 h) were positively related to wind profit. Age was not related to departure behavior, arrival, or travel time. However, vireos negotiated the GOM differently than thrushes, including different departure decisions, lower probability of detection in the YP, and longer crossing times. Defense of winter territories by thrushes but not vireos and species-specific foraging habits may explain the divergent migratory behaviors. Fat reserves appear extremely important to departure decisions and arrival in the YP. As habitat along the GOM is degraded, birds may be limited in their ability to acquire fat to cross the Gulf.

Fat, weather, and date affect migratory songbirds’ departure decisions, routes, and time it takes to cross the Gulf of Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Deppe, Jill L.; Ward, Michael P.; Bolus, Rachel T.; Diehl, Robert H.; Celis-Murillo, A.; Zenzal, Theodore J.; Moore, Frank R.; Benson, Thomas J.; Smolinsky, Jaclyn A.; Schofield, Lynn N.; Enstrom, David A.; Paxton, Eben H.; Bohrer, Gil; Beveroth, Tara A.; Raim, Arlo; Obringer, Renee L.; Delaney, David; Cochran, William W.

2015-01-01

Approximately two thirds of migratory songbirds in eastern North America negotiate the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), where inclement weather coupled with no refueling or resting opportunities can be lethal. However, decisions made when navigating such features and their consequences remain largely unknown due to technological limitations of tracking small animals over large areas. We used automated radio telemetry to track three songbird species (Red-eyed Vireo, Swainson’s Thrush, Wood Thrush) from coastal Alabama to the northern Yucatan Peninsula (YP) during fall migration. Detecting songbirds after crossing ∼1,000 km of open water allowed us to examine intrinsic (age, wing length, fat) and extrinsic (weather, date) variables shaping departure decisions, arrival at the YP, and crossing times. Large fat reserves and low humidity, indicative of beneficial synoptic weather patterns, favored southward departure across the Gulf. Individuals detected in the YP departed with large fat reserves and later in the fall with profitable winds, and flight durations (mean = 22.4 h) were positively related to wind profit. Age was not related to departure behavior, arrival, or travel time. However, vireos negotiated the GOM differently than thrushes, including different departure decisions, lower probability of detection in the YP, and longer crossing times. Defense of winter territories by thrushes but not vireos and species-specific foraging habits may explain the divergent migratory behaviors. Fat reserves appear extremely important to departure decisions and arrival in the YP. As habitat along the GOM is degraded, birds may be limited in their ability to acquire fat to cross the Gulf.

Fat, weather, and date affect migratory songbirds’ departure decisions, routes, and time it takes to cross the Gulf of Mexico

PubMed Central

Deppe, Jill L.; Ward, Michael P.; Bolus, Rachel T.; Diehl, Robert H.; Celis-Murillo, Antonio; Zenzal, Theodore J.; Moore, Frank R.; Benson, Thomas J.; Smolinsky, Jaclyn A.; Schofield, Lynn N.; Enstrom, David A.; Paxton, Eben H.; Bohrer, Gil; Beveroth, Tara A.; Raim, Arlo; Obringer, Renee L.; Delaney, David; Cochran, William W.

2015-01-01

Approximately two thirds of migratory songbirds in eastern North America negotiate the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), where inclement weather coupled with no refueling or resting opportunities can be lethal. However, decisions made when navigating such features and their consequences remain largely unknown due to technological limitations of tracking small animals over large areas. We used automated radio telemetry to track three songbird species (Red-eyed Vireo, Swainson’s Thrush, Wood Thrush) from coastal Alabama to the northern Yucatan Peninsula (YP) during fall migration. Detecting songbirds after crossing ∼1,000 km of open water allowed us to examine intrinsic (age, wing length, fat) and extrinsic (weather, date) variables shaping departure decisions, arrival at the YP, and crossing times. Large fat reserves and low humidity, indicative of beneficial synoptic weather patterns, favored southward departure across the Gulf. Individuals detected in the YP departed with large fat reserves and later in the fall with profitable winds, and flight durations (mean = 22.4 h) were positively related to wind profit. Age was not related to departure behavior, arrival, or travel time. However, vireos negotiated the GOM differently than thrushes, including different departure decisions, lower probability of detection in the YP, and longer crossing times. Defense of winter territories by thrushes but not vireos and species-specific foraging habits may explain the divergent migratory behaviors. Fat reserves appear extremely important to departure decisions and arrival in the YP. As habitat along the GOM is degraded, birds may be limited in their ability to acquire fat to cross the Gulf. PMID:26578793

Using Weather Types to Understand and Communicate Weather and Climate Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prein, A. F.; Hale, B.; Holland, G. J.; Bruyere, C. L.; Done, J.; Mearns, L.

2017-12-01

A common challenge in atmospheric research is the translation of scientific advancements and breakthroughs to decision relevant and actionable information. This challenge is central to the mission of NCAR's Capacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes (C3WE, www.c3we.ucar.edu). C3WE advances our understanding of weather and climate impacts and integrates these advances with distributed information technology to create tools that promote a global culture of resilience to weather and climate extremes. Here we will present an interactive web-based tool that connects historic U.S. losses and fatalities from extreme weather and climate events to 12 large-scale weather types. Weather types are dominant weather situations such as winter high-pressure systems over the U.S. leading to very cold temperatures or summertime moist humid air masses over the central U.S. leading to severe thunderstorms. Each weather type has a specific fingerprint of economic losses and fatalities in a region that is quantified. Therefore, weather types enable a direct connection of observed or forecasted weather situation to loss of life and property. The presented tool allows the user to explore these connections, raise awareness of existing vulnerabilities, and build resilience to weather and climate extremes.

Simulation study of pedestrian flow in a station hall during the Spring Festival travel rush

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Lei; Zhang, Qian; Cai, Yun; Zhang, Jianlin; Ma, Qingguo

2013-05-01

The Spring Festival is the most important festival in China. How can passengers go home smoothly and quickly during the Spring Festival travel rush, especially when emergencies of terrible winter weather happen? By modifying the social force model, we simulated the pedestrian flow in a station hall. The simulation revealed casualties happened when passengers escaped from panic induced by crowd turbulence. The results suggest that passenger numbers, ticket checking patterns, baggage volumes, and anxiety can affect the speed of passing through the waiting corridor. Our approach is meaningful in understanding the feature of a crowd moving and can be served to reproduce mass events. Therefore, it not only develops a realistic modeling of pedestrian flow but also is important for a better preparation of emergency management.

Prevalence of asthma symptoms in schoolchildren, and climate in west European countries: an ecologic study.

PubMed

Arnedo-Pena, Alberto; García-Marcos, Luis; Bercedo-Sanz, Alberto; Aguinaga-Ontoso, Inés; González-Díaz, Carlos; García-Merino, Agueda; Busquets-Monge, Rosa; Suárez-Varela, Maria Morales; Batlles-Garrido, Juan; Blanco-Quirós, Alfredo A; López-Silvarrey, Angel; García-Hernández, Gloria; Fuertes, Jorge

2013-09-01

The aim of the present study was to estimate the associations between the prevalence of asthma symptoms in schoolchildren and meteorological variables in west European countries that participated in the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Children (ISAAC), Phase III 1997-2003. An ecologic study was carried out. The prevalence of asthma was obtained from this study from 48 centers in 14 countries, and meteorological variables from those stations closest to ISAAC centers, together with other socioeconomic and health care variables. Multilevel mixed-effects linear regression models were used. For schoolchildren aged 6-7 years, the prevalence rate of asthma decreased with an increase in mean annual sunshine hours, showed a positive association with rainy weather, and warm temperature, and a negative one with relative humidity and physician density (PD). Current wheeze prevalence was stronger in autumn/winter seasons and decreased with increasing PD. Severe current wheeze decreased with PD. For schoolchildren aged 13-14 years, the prevalence rates of asthma and current wheeze increased with rainy weather, and these rates decreased with increased PD. Current wheeze, as measured by a video questionnaire, was inversely associated with sunny weather, and nurse density. Severe current wheeze prevalence was stronger during autumn/winter seasons, decreased with PD, and indoor chlorinated public swimming pool density, and increased with rainy weather. Meteorological factors, including sunny and rainy weather, and PD may have some effect on the prevalence rates of asthma symptoms in children from west European countries.

Prevalence of asthma symptoms in schoolchildren, and climate in west European countries: an ecologic study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnedo-Pena, Alberto; García-Marcos, Luis; Bercedo-Sanz, Alberto; Aguinaga-Ontoso, Inés; González-Díaz, Carlos; García-Merino, Águeda; Busquets-Monge, Rosa; Suárez-Varela, Maria Morales; Batlles-Garrido, Juan; Blanco-Quirós, Alfredo A.; López-Silvarrey, Angel; García-Hernández, Gloria; Fuertes, Jorge

2013-09-01

The aim of the present study was to estimate the associations between the prevalence of asthma symptoms in schoolchildren and meteorological variables in west European countries that participated in the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Children (ISAAC), Phase III 1997-2003. An ecologic study was carried out. The prevalence of asthma was obtained from this study from 48 centers in 14 countries, and meteorological variables from those stations closest to ISAAC centers, together with other socioeconomic and health care variables. Multilevel mixed-effects linear regression models were used. For schoolchildren aged 6-7 years, the prevalence rate of asthma decreased with an increase in mean annual sunshine hours, showed a positive association with rainy weather, and warm temperature, and a negative one with relative humidity and physician density (PD). Current wheeze prevalence was stronger in autumn/winter seasons and decreased with increasing PD. Severe current wheeze decreased with PD. For schoolchildren aged 13-14 years, the prevalence rates of asthma and current wheeze increased with rainy weather, and these rates decreased with increased PD. Current wheeze, as measured by a video questionnaire, was inversely associated with sunny weather, and nurse density. Severe current wheeze prevalence was stronger during autumn/winter seasons, decreased with PD, and indoor chlorinated public swimming pool density, and increased with rainy weather. Meteorological factors, including sunny and rainy weather, and PD may have some effect on the prevalence rates of asthma symptoms in children from west European countries.

Relation Between Lightning Activity of Summer and Winter Thunderclouds and Surface Electric Field Variation, Japan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Michimoto, K.; Shimura, T.; Suzuki, T.

1999-01-01

In winter, active convective clouds frequently form along the coastline of the Hokuriku district, in association with strong advection of Siberian air masses over the Sea of Japan. On the other hand, in summer, many thunderclouds form in the Kanto region in the afternoon every day. Summer and winter thunderclouds were investigated by field works, operation of the C- and X-band weather radars and a car-borne fieldmill. The investigation found a very close relation between the temporal variation of 3-dimensional radar echo and surface electric field magnitude detected by a car-borne fieldmill in the case of summer thunderclouds and winter convective clouds or thunderclouds. The study probed the close relation among radar echoes, quantity of thunderclouds and surface electric field magnitude in the summer and winter seasons. We think that summer thundercloud activity can basically be equated with winter thundercloud lightning activity, except that the magnitude of surface electric field under summer thunderclouds in the case of the Kanto region cannot be equated with that under winter thunderclouds in the case of the Hokuriku district in winter.

STS-121: Discovery L-2 Countdown Status Briefing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2006-01-01

Bruce Buckingham from NASA Public Affairs introduces Pete Nicolenko, NASA Test Director, and Kathy Winters, Shuttle Weather Officer. During this STS-121 two days before launch countdown briefing, Pete Nicolenko says that there are no issues of concern and that they are on schedule for launch. He then presents and discusses an Orbiter Processing Facility (OPF) video. The OPF topics of discussion include: 1) Wheel and tire installation; 2) Gap filler installation; 3) Booster build-up; 4) Transport of External Tank (ET) 119; 5) ET to Shuttle Rocket Booster (SRB) Mate operation; 6) Roll-over of Discovery out of OPF to the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB); and 7) Roll-out to the pad. Kathy Winters gives her weather forecast for the STS-121 launch. The video ends with a question and answer period from the media.

Seasonal modeling of hand, foot, and mouth disease as a function of meteorological variations in Chongqing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Pin; Zhao, Han; You, Fangxin; Zhou, Hailong; Goggins, William B.

2017-08-01

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is an enterovirus-induced infectious disease, mainly affecting children under 5 years old. Outbreaks of HFMD in recent years indicate the disease interacts with both the weather and season. This study aimed to investigate the seasonal association between HFMD and weather variation in Chongqing, China. Generalized additive models and distributed lag non-linear models based on a maximum lag of 14 days, with negative binomial distribution assumed to account for overdispersion, were constructed to model the association between reporting HFMD cases from 2009 to 2014 and daily mean temperature, relative humidity, total rainfall and sun duration, adjusting for trend, season, and day of the week. The year-round temperature and relative humidity, rainfall in summer, and sun duration in winter were all significantly associated with HFMD. An inverted-U relationship was found between mean temperature and HFMD above 19 °C in summer, with a maximum morbidity at 27 °C, while the risk increased linearly with the temperature in winter. A hockey-stick association was found for relative humidity in summer with increasing risks over 60%. Heavy rainfall, relative to no rain, was found to be associated with reduced HFMD risk in summer and 2 h of sunshine could decrease the risk by 21% in winter. The present study showed meteorological variables were differentially associated with HFMD incidence in two seasons. Short-term weather variation surveillance and forecasting could be employed as an early indicator for potential HFMD outbreaks.

KSC-06pd1285

NASA Image and Video Library

2006-06-28

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - At the Cape Canaveral forecast facility in Florida, media were able to meet members of the weather team who review data used for forecasts as part of a tour of the facility. The team will play a role in the July 1 launch of Space Shuttle Discovery on mission STS-121. At the facility, which is operated by the U.S. Air Force 45th Weather Squadron, received a briefing on how the launch weather forecast is developed by Shuttle Weather Officer Kathy Winters and met the forecasters for the space shuttle and the expendable launch vehicles. Also participating were members of the Applied Meteorology Unit who provide special expertise to the forecasters by analyzing and interpreting unusual or inconsistent weather data. The media were able to see the release of the Rawinsonde weather balloon carrying instruments aloft to be used as part of developing the forecast. Photo credit: NASA/George Shelton

New weather index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the University of Delaware have refined the wind-chill factor, a common measurement of weather discomfort, into a new misery register called the weather stress index. In addition to the mix of temperature and wind speed data used to calculate wind chill, the recipe for the index adds two new ingredients—humidity and a dash of benchmark statistics—to estimate human reaction to weather conditions. NOAA says that the weather stress index estimates human reaction to weather conditions and that the reaction depends on variations from the ‘normal’ conditions in the locality involved.Discomfort criteria for New Orleans, La., and Bismarck, N.D., for example, differ drastically. According to NOAA, when it's the middle of winter and it's -10°C with a relative humidity of 80% and 24 km/h winds, persons in New Orleans would be highly stressed while those in Bismarck wouldn't bat an eye.

Seasonal trends in vegetation and atmospheric concentrations of PAHs and PBDEs near a sanitary landfill

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

St-Amand, Annick D.; Mayer, Paul M.; Blais, Jules M.

Spruce needle and atmospheric (gaseous and particulate-bound) concentrations were surveyed near a sanitary landfill from February 2004 to June 2005. The influence of several parameters such as temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, as well as increased domestic heating during the winter was assessed. In general, polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDE) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) concentrations in spruce needles increased over time and decreased following snowmelt with a minimum coinciding with bud burst of deciduous trees. Atmospheric concentrations of PBDE and PAH, both particulate-bound and gaseous phase, were linked to daily weather events and thus showed more variability than those in spruce needles. Highest PAH concentrations were encountered during the winter, likely reflecting increased emission from heating homes. Pseudo Clausius-Clapeyron plots revealed higher PBDE gaseous concentrations with increasing temperature, but showed no correlation between PAH gaseous concentrations and temperature as this effect was obscured by seasonal emission patterns. Finally, air mass back trajectories and local wind directions revealed that particulate-bound PBDEs, along with both gaseous and particulate-bound PAHs were from local sources, whereas gaseous PBDEs were likely from distant sources.

Long-term variation in the winter resident bird community of Guanica Forest, Puerto Rico: lessons for measuring and monitoring species richness.

Treesearch

John Faaborg; Katie M. Dugger; Wayne J. Arendt

2007-01-01

Because the winter season is potentially limiting for migratory birds, understanding their nonbreeding distributional patterns is essential. At a given site, patterns of species occurrence and abundance may vary over time and, within a species, wintering strategies may vary with regard to the degree that individuals are site-faithful both within and between winters. We...

Robustness of serial clustering of extra-tropical cyclones to the choice of tracking method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinto, Joaquim G.; Ulbrich, Sven; Karremann, Melanie K.; Stephenson, David B.; Economou, Theodoros; Shaffrey, Len C.

2016-04-01

Cyclone families are a frequent synoptic weather feature in the Euro-Atlantic area in winter. Given appropriate large-scale conditions, the occurrence of such series (clusters) of storms may lead to large socio-economic impacts and cumulative losses. Recent studies analyzing Reanalysis data using single cyclone tracking methods have shown that serial clustering of cyclones occurs on both flanks and downstream regions of the North Atlantic storm track. This study explores the sensitivity of serial clustering to the choice of tracking method. With this aim, the IMILAST cyclone track database based on ERA-interim data is analysed. Clustering is estimated by the dispersion (ratio of variance to mean) of winter (DJF) cyclones passages near each grid point over the Euro-Atlantic area. Results indicate that while the general pattern of clustering is identified for all methods, there are considerable differences in detail. This can primarily be attributed to the differences in the variance of cyclone counts between the methods, which range up to one order of magnitude. Nevertheless, clustering over the Eastern North Atlantic and Western Europe can be identified for all methods and can thus be generally considered as a robust feature. The statistical links between large-scale patterns like the NAO and clustering are obtained for all methods, though with different magnitudes. We conclude that the occurrence of cyclone clustering over the Eastern North Atlantic and Western Europe is largely independent from the choice of tracking method and hence from the definition of a cyclone.

High Arctic sea ice conditions influence marine birds wintering in Low Arctic regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McFarlane Tranquilla, Laura; Hedd, April; Burke, Chantelle; Montevecchi, William A.; Regular, Paul M.; Robertson, Gregory J.; Stapleton, Leslie Ann; Wilhelm, Sabina I.; Fifield, David A.; Buren, Alejandro D.

2010-09-01

Ocean climate change is having profound biological effects in polar regions. Such change can also have far-reaching downstream effects in sub-polar regions. This study documents an environmental relationship between High Arctic sea ice changes and mortality events of marine birds in Low Arctic coastal regions. During April 2007 and March 2009, hundreds of beached seabird carcasses and moribund seabirds were found along the east and northeast coasts of Newfoundland, Canada. These seabird "wrecks" (i.e. dead birds on beaches) coincided with a period of strong, persistent onshore winds and heavily-accumulated sea ice that blocked bays and trapped seabirds near beaches. Ninety-two percent of wreck seabirds were Thick-billed Murres ( Uria lomvia). Body condition and demographic patterns of wreck murres were compared to Thick-billed Murres shot in the Newfoundland murre hunt. Average body and pectoral masses of wreck carcasses were 34% and 40% lighter (respectively) than shot murres, indicating that wreck birds had starved. The acute nature of each wreck suggested that starvation and associated hypothermia occurred within 2-3 days. In 2007, first-winter murres (77%) dominated the wreck. In 2009, there were more adults (78%), mostly females (66%). These results suggest that spatial and temporal segregation in ages and sexes can play a role in differential survival when stochastic weather conditions affect discrete areas where these groups aggregate. In wreck years, southward movement of Arctic sea ice to Low Arctic latitudes was later and blocked bays longer than in most other years. These inshore conditions corresponded with recent climate-driven changes in High Arctic ice break-up and ice extent; coupled with local weather conditions, these ice conditions appeared to be the key environmental features that precipitated the ice-associated seabird wrecks in the Low Arctic region.

Rotavirus seasonality in urban sewage from Argentina: effect of meteorological variables on the viral load and the genetic diversity.

PubMed

Barril, P A; Fumian, T M; Prez, V E; Gil, P I; Martínez, L C; Giordano, M O; Masachessi, G; Isa, M B; Ferreyra, L J; Ré, V E; Miagostovich, M; Pavan, J V; Nates, S V

2015-04-01

In Argentina, the rotavirus disease exhibits seasonal variations, being most prevalent in the fall and winter months. To deepen the understanding of rotavirus seasonality in our community, the influence of meteorological factors on the rotavirus load and the genetic diversity in urban raw sewage from Córdoba city, Argentina were evaluated. Wastewater samples were collected monthly during a three-year study period and viral particles were concentrated by polyethylene glycol precipitation. RT-nested PCR was applied for rotavirus detection, and VP7/VP4 characterization and real-time PCR for rotavirus quantification. Both molecular techniques showed relatively similar sensitivity rates and revealed rotavirus presence in urban wastewater in cold and warm seasons, indicating its circulation in the local community all year round. However, a slight trend for rotavirus circulation was noted by real-time PCR in the fall and winter seasons, showing a significantly higher peak of rotavirus concentration at mean temperatures lower than 18°C and also higher, although not statistically different during drier weather. VP7 and VP4 gene characterization showed that G1 and P[8] genotypes were dominant, and temporal variations in genotype distribution were not observed. Rotavirus spread is complex and our results point out that weather factors alone cannot explain the seasonal quantitative pattern of the rotavirus disease. Therefore, alternative transmission routes, changes in human behavior and susceptibility, and the stability and survivability of the virus might all together contribute to the seasonality of rotavirus. The results obtained here provide evidence regarding the dynamics of rotavirus circulation and maintenance in Argentina. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Influence of Kuroshio Oceanic Eddies on North Pacific Weather Patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, X.; Chang, P.; Saravanan, R.; Montuoro, R.; Hsieh, J. S.; Wu, D.; Lin, X.; Wu, L.; Jing, Z.

2016-02-01

High-resolution satellite observations reveal energetic meso-scale ocean eddy activity and positive correlation between meso-scale sea surface temperature (SST) and surface wind along oceanic frontal zones, such as the Kuroshio and Gulf Stream, suggesting a potential role of meso-scale oceanic eddies in forcing the atmosphere. Using a 27 km horizontal resolution Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model forced with observed daily SST at 0.09° spatial resolution during boreal winter season, two ensembles of 10 WRF simulations, in one of which meso-scale SST variability induced by ocean eddies was suppressed, were conducted in the North Pacific to study the local and remote influence of meso-scale oceanic eddies in the Kuroshio Extention Region (KER) on the atmosphere. Suppression of meso-scale oceanic eddies results in a deep tropospheric response along and downstream of the KER, including a significant decrease (increase) in winter season mean rainfall along the KER (west coast of US), a reduction of storm genesis in the KER, and a southward shift of the jet stream and North Pacific storm track in the eastern North Pacific. The simulated local and remote rainfall response to meso-scale oceanic eddies in the KER is also supported by observational analysis. A mechanism invoking moist baroclinic instability is proposed as a plausible explanation for the linkage between meso-scale oceanic eddies in the KER and large-scale atmospheric response in the North Pacific. It is argued that meso-scale oceanic eddies can have a rectified effect on planetary boundary layer moisture, the stability of the lower atmosphere and latent heat release, which in turn affect cyclogenesis. The accumulated effect of the altered storm development downstream further contributes to the equivalent barotropic mean flow change in the eastern North Pacific basin.

Sensitivity of glacier mass balance and equilibrium line altitude to climatic change on King George Island, Antarctic Peninsula.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falk, Ulrike; Lopez, Damian; Silva-Busso, Adrian

2017-04-01

The South Shetland Islands are located at the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula which is among the fastest warming regions on Earth. Surface air temperature increases (ca. 3 K in 50 years) are concurrent with retreating glacier fronts, an increase in melt areas, ice surface lowering and rapid break-up and disintegration of ice shelves. Observed surface air temperature lapse rates show a high variability during winter months (standard deviations up to ±1.0 K/100 m), and a distinct spatial heterogeneity reflecting the impact of synoptic weather patterns especially during winter glacial mass accumulation periods. The increased mesocyclonic activity during the winter time in the study area results in intensified advection of warm, moist air with high temperatures and rain, and leads to melt conditions on the ice cap, fixating surface air temperatures to the melting point. The impact on winter accumulation results in even more negative mass balance estimates. Six years of glaciological measurements on mass balance stake transects are used with a glacier melt model to assess changes in melt water input to the coastal waters, glacier surface mass balance and the equilibrium line altitude. The average equilibrium line altitude (ELA) calculated from own glaciological observations for KGI over the time period 2010 - 2015 amounts to ELA=330±100 m. Published studies suggest rather stable condition slightly negative glacier mass balance until the mid 80's with an ELA of approx. 150 m. The calculated accumulation area ratio suggests rather dramatic changes in extension of the inland ice cap for the South Shetland Islands until an equilibrium with concurrent climate conditions is reached.

Interannual variability and climatic noise in satellite-observed outgoing longwave radiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Short, D. A.; Cahalan, R. F.

1983-01-01

Upwelling-IR observations of the North Pacific by polar orbiters NOAA 3, 4, 5, and 6 and TIROS-N from 1974 to 1981 are analyzed statistically in terms of interannual variability (IAV) in monthly averages and climatic noise due to short-term weather fluctuations. It is found that although the daily variance in the observations is the same in summer and winter months, and although IAV in winter is smaller than that in summer, the climatic noise in winter is so much smaller that a greater fraction of winter anomalies are statistically significant. The smaller winter climatic noise level is shown to be due to shorter autocorrelation times. It is demonstrated that increasing averaging area does not reduce the climatic noise level, suggesting that continuing collection of high-resolution satellite IR data on a global basis is necessary if better models of short-term variability are to be constructed.

Farmers’ Market Expands to Offer Products in Winter | Poster

Cancer.gov

By Carolynne Keenan, Contributing Writer The 2013 National Cancer Institute (NCI) at Frederick Farmers’ Market regular season may have closed, but that doesn’t mean customers who want fresh produce, handmade crafts, and other homemade goodies from local vendors are out of luck. Winter Markets, which began Jan. 7, will be held every other Tuesday, from 11 a.m. to 1 p.m., in front of Building 549 or in the Café Room, depending on the weather.

Are the current thresholds, indicators, and time window for cold warning effective enough to protect cardiovascular health?

PubMed

Lin, Shao; Lawrence, Wayne R; Lin, Ziqiang; DiRienzo, Stephen; Lipton, Kevin; Dong, Guang-Hui; Leung, Ricky; Lauper, Ursula; Nasca, Philip; Stuart, Neil

2018-10-15

More extreme cold weather and larger weather variations have raised concerns regarding their effects on public health. Although prior studies assessed the effects of cold air temperature on health, especially mortality, limited studies evaluated wind chill temperatures on morbidity, and health effects under the current cold warning threshold. This study identified the thresholds, lag periods, and best indicators of extreme cold on cardiovascular disease (CVD) by comparing effects of wind chill temperatures and cold air temperatures on CVD emergency department (ED) visits in winter and winter transition months. Information was collected on 662,625 CVD ED visits from statewide hospital discharge dataset in New York State. Meteorological factors, including air temperature, wind speed, and barometric pressure were collected from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. A case-crossover approach was used to assess the extreme cold-CVD relationship in winter (December-February) and transition months (November and March) after controlling for PM 2.5 . Conditional logistic regression models were employed to analyze the association between cold weather factors and CVD ED visits. We observed CVD effects occurred when wind chill temperatures were as high as -3.8 °C (25 °F), warmer than current wind chill warning standard (≤-28.8 °C or ≤-20 °F). Wind chill temperature was a more sensitive indicator of CVD ED visits during winter with temperatures ≤ -3.8 °C (25 °F) with delay effect (lag 6); however, air temperature was better during transition months for temperatures ≤ 7.2 °C (45 °F) at earlier lag days (1-3). Among all CVD subtypes, hypertension ED visit had the strongest negative association with both wind chill temperature and air temperature. This study recommends modifying the current cold warning temperature threshold given larger proportions of CVD cases are occurring at considerably higher temperatures than the current criteria. We also recommend issuing cold warnings in winter transitional months. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A systematic evaluation of the lagged effects of spatiotemporally relative surface weather types on wintertime cardiovascular-related mortality across 19 US cities.

PubMed

Lee, Cameron C

2015-11-01

Previous research using varying methods has shown that the day-to-day variability in cardiovascular (CV)-related mortality is correlated with a number of different meteorological variables, though these relationships can vary geographically. This research systematically examines the relationship between anomalous winter CV-related mortality and geographically and seasonally relative multivariate surface weather types derived from a recently developed gridded weather typing classification (GWTC) for cities in varying climate regions of the United States of America (USA). Results indicate that for all locations examined, during winter, a dry and cool (DC) weather type is significantly related to increased CV-related mortality, especially in the 2 weeks immediately after it occurs, with no apparent mortality displacement. Across the USA as a whole, the peak of this relationship is a 4.1% increase in CV-related mortality at a lag of 3 days. Spike days in CV-related mortality show similar trends, being over 50% more likely 2 to 4 days after the DC type occurs. A humid and warm (HW) weather type exhibited a significant and opposite relationship to that of DC. While these results for DC and HW were statistically significant at every location examined, the magnitudes were larger in the warmer locations. Among other weather types, Warm Front Passages (WFP) were also related to significant increases in CV-related mortality, especially 1 day after they occurred. Though this link was much more varied geographically than results found with DC or HW, it suggests that sequences of multiple DC days followed by WFP may result in increased CV-related mortality.

A systematic evaluation of the lagged effects of spatiotemporally relative surface weather types on wintertime cardiovascular-related mortality across 19 US cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Cameron C.

2015-11-01

Previous research using varying methods has shown that the day-to-day variability in cardiovascular (CV)-related mortality is correlated with a number of different meteorological variables, though these relationships can vary geographically. This research systematically examines the relationship between anomalous winter CV-related mortality and geographically and seasonally relative multivariate surface weather types derived from a recently developed gridded weather typing classification (GWTC) for cities in varying climate regions of the United States of America (USA). Results indicate that for all locations examined, during winter, a dry and cool (DC) weather type is significantly related to increased CV-related mortality, especially in the 2 weeks immediately after it occurs, with no apparent mortality displacement. Across the USA as a whole, the peak of this relationship is a 4.1% increase in CV-related mortality at a lag of 3 days. Spike days in CV-related mortality show similar trends, being over 50% more likely 2 to 4 days after the DC type occurs. A humid and warm (HW) weather type exhibited a significant and opposite relationship to that of DC. While these results for DC and HW were statistically significant at every location examined, the magnitudes were larger in the warmer locations. Among other weather types, Warm Front Passages (WFP) were also related to significant increases in CV-related mortality, especially 1 day after they occurred. Though this link was much more varied geographically than results found with DC or HW, it suggests that sequences of multiple DC days followed by WFP may result in increased CV-related mortality.

Global Weirding? - Using Very Large Ensembles and Extreme Value Theory to assess Changes in Extreme Weather Events Today

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, F. E. L.; Mitchell, D.; Sippel, S.; Black, M. T.; Dittus, A. J.; Harrington, L. J.; Mohd Saleh, N. H.

2014-12-01

A shift in the distribution of socially-relevant climate variables such as daily minimum winter temperatures and daily precipitation extremes, has been attributed to anthropogenic climate change for various mid-latitude regions. However, while there are many process-based arguments suggesting also a change in the shape of these distributions, attribution studies demonstrating this have not currently been undertaken. Here we use a very large initial condition ensemble of ~40,000 members simulating the European winter 2013/2014 using the distributed computing infrastructure under the weather@home project. Two separate scenarios are used:1. current climate conditions, and 2. a counterfactual scenario of "world that might have been" without anthropogenic forcing. Specifically focusing on extreme events, we assess how the estimated parameters of the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution vary depending on variable-type, sampling frequency (daily, monthly, …) and geographical region. We find that the location parameter changes for most variables but, depending on the region and variables, we also find significant changes in scale and shape parameters. The very large ensemble allows, furthermore, to assess whether such findings in the fitted GEV distributions are consistent with an empirical analysis of the model data, and whether the most extreme data still follow a known underlying distribution that in a small sample size might otherwise be thought of as an out-lier. The ~40,000 member ensemble is simulated using 12 different SST patterns (1 'observed', and 11 best guesses of SSTs with no anthropogenic warming). The range in SSTs, along with the corresponding changings in the NAO and high-latitude blocking inform on the dynamics governing some of these extreme events. While strong tele-connection patterns are not found in this particular experiment, the high number of simulated extreme events allows for a more thorough analysis of the dynamics than has been performed before. Therefore, combining extreme value theory with very large ensemble simulations allows us to understand the dynamics of changes in extreme events which is not possible just using the former but also shows in which cases statistics combined with smaller ensembles give as valid results as very large initial conditions.

Climatological Aspects of Aerosol Physical Characteristics in Tunisia Deduced from Sun Photometric Measurements

PubMed Central

Chaâbane, Mabrouk; Azri, Chafai; Medhioub, Khaled

2012-01-01

Atmospheric and climatic data measured at Thala site (Tunisia) for a long-time period (1977–2001) are used to analyse the monthly, seasonal, and annual variations of the aerosol optical depth at 1 μm wavelength. We have shown that aerosol and microphysical properties and the dominating aerosol types depend on seasons. A comparison of the seasonal cycle of aerosol optical characteristics at Thala site showed that the contribution of long-range transported particles is expected to be larger in summer as a consequence of the weather stability typical of this season. Also, the winter decrease in atmospheric turbidity may result from increases in relative humidity and decreases in temperature, leading to increased particle size and mass and increased fall and deposition velocities. The spring and autumn weather patterns usually carry fine dust and sand particles for the desert area to Thala region. The annual behaviour of the aerosol optical depth recorded a period of stead increase started in 1986 until 2001. Trends in atmospheric turbidity after 1988 could be explained other ways by the contribution of the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 and by local or regional changes in climate or in aerosol emissions. PMID:22629150

Climatological aspects of aerosol physical characteristics in Tunisia deduced from sun photometric measurements.

PubMed

Chaâbane, Mabrouk; Azri, Chafai; Medhioub, Khaled

2012-01-01

Atmospheric and climatic data measured at Thala site (Tunisia) for a long-time period (1977-2001) are used to analyse the monthly, seasonal, and annual variations of the aerosol optical depth at 1 μm wavelength. We have shown that aerosol and microphysical properties and the dominating aerosol types depend on seasons. A comparison of the seasonal cycle of aerosol optical characteristics at Thala site showed that the contribution of long-range transported particles is expected to be larger in summer as a consequence of the weather stability typical of this season. Also, the winter decrease in atmospheric turbidity may result from increases in relative humidity and decreases in temperature, leading to increased particle size and mass and increased fall and deposition velocities. The spring and autumn weather patterns usually carry fine dust and sand particles for the desert area to Thala region. The annual behaviour of the aerosol optical depth recorded a period of stead increase started in 1986 until 2001. Trends in atmospheric turbidity after 1988 could be explained other ways by the contribution of the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 and by local or regional changes in climate or in aerosol emissions.

Temporal dynamics of fish communities on an exposed shoreline in Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Friedlander, A.M.; Parrish, J.D.

1998-01-01

Environmental conditions on higher latitude coral reefs can be extremely variable, and may structure fish communities in ways not previously observed in the more stable, low latitude locations where communities have usually been studied. Temporal changes in fish community structure were examined in an intensive two-year study of the reef fishes of Hanalei Bay, Kauai, Hawaii. Hanalei Bay is directly exposed to winter swells with high surf, as well as frequent heavy winter rainfall and high river discharge. Twenty-two transects (25 x 5 m) were established in a wide variety of habitats and censused monthly (N = 1052 censuses). Over 121 000 sightings of individuals from 150 species were made during the study. Seasonal patterns in number of species, number of individuals, species diversity, and evenness were observed, with winter values usually lowest. Values of these ensemble variables tended to be higher at deeper sites and at sites with greater habitat complexity. Surf height and degree of wave exposure were negatively correlated with several measures of community organization. Groups of fishes with different levels of spatial mobility tended to occupy depths consistent with their various abilities to respond to events of heavy weather. The rank abundance of fish taxa tended to be more stable seasonally at sites with less exposure to high wave energy. These seasonal effects may suggest some type of short-range movement from more exposed and monotypic habitats to locations that are deeper or otherwise provide refuge from seasonally heavy seas.

The Child's Tantrum: El Nino. The Origin of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Picault, Joel; Hackert, Eric; Busalacchi, Antonio; Murtugudde, Ragu; Lagerloef, Gary

2000-01-01

In 1997, a child's tantrums caught the world's attention. These tantrums took the form not of crying and foot stamping, but of droughts and floods. Obviously, this was no ordinary child. It was, in fact, The Child, or El Nino, as it was, named in the late 1800s by South American observers, who noted that its timing coincided with the Christmas holiday. El Nino is a reversal in sea surface temperature (SST) distributions that occurs once every few years in the tropical Pacific. When it coincides with a cyclical shift in air pressure, known as the Southern Oscillation, normal weather patterns are drastically altered. The combined phenomenon is known as El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Although ENSO is a regular phenomenon, it was unusually strong in 1997. It produced heavy rainfall and floods in California and bestowed spring-like temperatures on the Midwest during the winter. These drastic changes in normal weather patterns captured the public imagination, from news reports to jokes on late-night talk shows. Naturally, people wanted to. know as much, about El Nino as possible. Fortunately, scientists had at their disposal new satellites and ocean sensors that provided an unprecedented level of information. Consequently, not only was the 1997 ENSO the strongest in recent memory, but it was also the most thoroughly studied. Prominent groups such as the NASA Seasonalto-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) combined numerous aspects of climate modeling into a single, predictive endeavor.

March-June temperature reconstruction in the Czech Lands based on cereal harvest dates in the 1501-2008 period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brázdil, Rudolf; Možný, Martin; Dobrovolný, Petr; Trnka, Mirek

2010-05-01

Cereal crop harvests reflect the weather patterns of the period immediately preceding them, and thus the dates at which they begin may be used as a source of proxy data on regional climate. Using systematic phenological observations in the Czech Lands (now known as the Czech Republic) after 1848, together with exploration of further surviving documentary evidence (chronicles, diaries, financial accounts etc.), it has proved possible to create series of winter wheat harvest dates for the period 1501-2008. Employing linear regression, the harvesting dates of the main cereal species (wheat, rye, barley, oats) were first converted to winter wheat harvest days and then normalised to the same altitude above sea level. The next step consisted of using series of winter wheat harvest dates to reconstruct mean March-June temperatures in the Czech Lands, applying standard palaeoclimatological methods. Series reconstructed by linear regression explain 70% of temperature variability. A profound cold period corresponding with late winter wheat harvests was noted between 1659 and 1705. In contrast, warm periods (i.e. early winter wheat harvests) were found for the periods of 1517-1542, 1788-1834 and 1946-2008. The period after 1951 is the warmest of all throughout the entire 1501-2008 period. Comparisons with other European temperature reconstructions derived from documentary sources (including grape harvest dates), tree-ring and instrumental data reveal generally close agreement, with significant correlations. Lower correlations around A.D. 1650 and 1750 may be partly related to deterioration of socio-economic conditions in the Czech Lands resulting from prolonged wars. The results obtained demonstrate that it is possible to use widely-available cereal harvest data for climate analysis and also that such data constitute an independent proxy data series for the region of Central Europe crucial to further studies of the potential impact of climatic variability and climate change on agriculture. (The paper was supported by Grant Agency of the Czech Republic, project No. 521/08/1682.)

Relationships between nocturnal winter road slipperiness, cloud cover and surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grimbacher, T.; Schmid, W.

2003-04-01

Ice and Snow are important risks for road traffic. In this study we show several events of slipperiness in Switzerland, mainly caused by rain or snow falling on a frozen surface. Other reasons for slippery conditions are frost or freezing dew in clear nights and nocturnal clearing after precipitation, which goes along with radiative cooling. The main parameters of road weather forecasts are precipitation, cloudiness and surface temperature. Precipitation is well predictable with weather radars and radar nowcasting algorithms. Temperatures are often taken from numerical weather prediction models, but because of changes in cloud cover these model values are inaccurate in terms of predicting the onset of freezing. Cloudiness, especially the advection, formation and dissipation of clouds and their interaction with surface temperatures, is one of the major unsolved problems of road weather forecasts. Cloud cover and the temperature difference between air and surface temperature are important parameters of the radiation balance. In this contribution, we show the relationship between them, proved at several stations all over Switzerland. We found a quadratic correlation coefficient of typically 60% and improved it considering other meteorological parameters like wind speed and surface water. The acquired relationship may vary from one station to another, but we conclude that temperature difference is a signature for nocturnal cloudiness. We investigated nocturnal cloudiness for two cases from winters 2002 and 2003 in the canton of Lucerne in central Switzerland. There, an ultra-dense combination of two networks with together 55 stations within 50x50 km^2 is operated, measuring air and surface temperature, wind and other road weather parameters. With the aid of our equations, temperature differences detected from this network were converted into cloud maps. A comparison between precipitation seen by radar, cloud maps and surface temperatures shows that there are similar structures in all data. Depending on the situation, we also identified additional effects influencing the temperature differences, for instance the advection of could air or the influence of melting heat at or after a snow event. All these findings help to further understand the phenomena, and hence will contribute to a better predictability of winter road slipperiness.

[Effects of irrigation and planting patterns on photosynthetic characteristics of flag leaf and yield at late growth stages of winter wheat].

PubMed

Dong, Hao; Bi, Jun; Xia, Guang-Li; Zhou, Xun-Bo; Chen, Yu-Hai

2014-08-01

High-yield winter wheat cultivar Jimai 22 was used to study effects of irrigation and planting patterns on water consumption characteristics and photosynthetic characteristics of winter wheat in field from 2009 to 2011. Three different planting patterns (uniform row, wide-narrow row and furrow) and four irrigation schedules (W0, no irrigation; W1, irrigation at jointing stage; W2, irrigations at jointing and anthesis stages; W3, irrigation at jointing, anthesis and milking stages. Each irrigation rate was 60 mm) were designed in the experiment. Results showed that, with the increasing of irrigation amount, flag leaf area, net photosynthesis rate, maximum photochemical efficiency and actual light transformation efficiency at late growth stages of winter wheat increased. Compared with W0 treatment, the other irrigation treatments had higher grain yields, but lower water use efficiencies. Under the same irrigation condition, the flag leaf net photosynthesis, maximum photochemical efficiency and actual light transformation efficiency were much higher in furrow pattern. Grain yields of winter wheat under furrow pattern and W2 treatment were significantly higher than that of the other treatments. Taking grain yield and WUE into consideration, furrow pattern combined with irrigation at jointing and anthesis stages might be the optimal water-saving and planting mode for the winter wheat production in North China Plain.

Chemical characterization of atmospheric dust from a weekly time series in the north Red Sea between 2006 and 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torfstein, Adi; Teutsch, Nadya; Tirosh, Ofir; Shaked, Yeala; Rivlin, Tanya; Zipori, Assaf; Stein, Mordechai; Lazar, Boaz; Erel, Yigal

2017-08-01

Atmospheric dust loads and chemical compositions serve as a key link between global climate patterns and marine biogeochemical cycles. The primary source of atmospheric dust in the world today is the Sahara-Arabian desert belt. Although this source was also active during the Quaternary, the interpretation of paleo-dust records and their effects on marine ecosystems is complicated by the scarcely reported atmospheric load patterns of bioavailable phases (i.e., water and acid leachable phases) and present-day contamination of anthropogenic components. This study reports a multi-annual time series of atmospheric dust loads (2006-2016) and their chemical compositions (2006-2010) collected in the north Gulf of Aqaba (north Red Sea) at a weekly to bi-weekly resolution. Major and trace element abundances in each sample are reported for three fractions: water-soluble salts, carbonates and oxides (weak acid leach), and Al-silicates. Dust loads vary seasonally from low values in late summer (∼20-30 μg m-3) to higher values in the fall, and highest values in late winter and early spring (∼150-250 μg m-3). Major and trace element abundances allow to distinguish between the sources and chemical compositions that dominate high and low dust loads in each season. The water leachable fraction (L0) is relatively enriched in Na, Ca, K and Mg, the acid-leachable fraction (L1) is enriched in Ca as well as Na, Al, Mg, Zn, Cd and Pb, and the silicate residue (L2) in Al and Fe. High dust loads occurring mainly during winter and spring months are characterized by low Mg/Ca (L1, L2), low K/Al and Na/Al (L1) and high Ca/Al (L1), high Mg/Al (L2) and relatively un-weathered (L2) contents. High dust load intervals during winter months are characterized by low passing air masses originating from the Sahara, while the ambient winter dust (low dust load) is associated with proximal source regions from the East Sahara and Arabian Peninsula. During late winter and spring months, high dust loads originate from central and west Sahara and to a lesser extent from north Sahara. Low dust loads characterize the summer with limited compositional variability relative to winter-spring months. Summer dust is generally characterized by high K/Al (L1) ratios relative to late winter and spring. It is also relatively high in anthropogenic trace elements in the L0 and L1 fractions (e.g., Zn/Al, Pb/Al, Cr/Al, Ni/Al and V/Al), whereby back trajectories indicate the source of these components is primarily from south and east Europe. The total load (ng m-3) of anthropogenic trace elements however, remains higher during winter and spring, stemming from the overall significantly higher dust loads characterizing this time window. The temporal load patterns of important micronutrients such as Fe, Cd, Zn, Cu, Ni and others in the bio-available phases (L0, L1) are not correlated with major nutrients or Chlorophyll-a sea surface concentrations, suggesting that the atmospheric dust plays a limited role in driving primary productivity in the oligotrophic surface waters of the Gulf of Aqaba. On a wider scale, the results provide unique chemical fingerprinting of Sahara-Arabian dust that can be applied to reconstruct past trends in dust loads recorded in deep-sea cores and other geological archives from this and other regions.

Data requirements in support of the marine weather service program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Travers, J.; Mccaslin, R. W.; Mull, M.

1972-01-01

Data support activities for the Marine Weather Service Program are outlined. Forecasts, cover anomolous water levels, including sea and swell, surface and breakers, and storm surge. Advisories are also provided for sea ice on the Great Lake and Cook inlet in winter, and in the Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort Seas in summer. Attempts were made to deal with ocean currents in the Gulf Stream, areas of upwelling, and thermal structure at least down through the mixed layer.

Case studies of NOAA 6/TIROS N data impact on numerical weather forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Druyan, L. M.; Alperson, Z.; Ben-Amram, T.

1984-01-01

The impact of satellite temperatures from systems which predate the launching of the third generation of vertical sounding instruments aboard TIROS N (13 Oct 1978) and NOAA 6 (27 June 1979) is reported. The first evaluation of soundings from TIROS N found that oceanic, cloudy retrievals over NH mid latitudes show a cold bias in winter. It is confirmed for both satellite systems using a larger data base. It is shown that RMS differences between retrievals and colocated radiosonde observations within the swath 30-60N during the 1979-80 winter were generally 2-3K in clear air and higher for cloudy columns. A positive impact of TIROS N temperatures on the analysis of synoptic weather systems is shown. Analyses prepared from only satellite temperatures seemed to give a better definition to weather systems' thermal structure than that provided by corresponding NMC analyses without satellite data. The results of a set of 14 numerical forecast experiments performed with the PE model of the Israel Meteorological Service (IMS) are summarized; these were designed to test the impact of TIROS N and NOAA 6 temperatures within the IMS analysis and forecast cycle. The satellite data coverage over the NH, the mean area/period S1 and RMS verification scores and the spatial distribution of SAT versus NO SAT forecast differences are discussed and it is concluded that positive forecast impact occurs over ocean areas where the extra data improve the specification which is otherwise available from conventional observations. The forecast impact for three cases from the same set of experiments was examined and it is found that satellite temperatures, observed over the Atlantic Ocean contribute to better forecasts over Iceland and central Europe although a worse result was verified over Spain. It is also shown that the better scores of a forecast based also on satellite data and verified over North America actually represent a mixed impact on the forecast synoptic patterns. A superior 48 hr 500 mb forecast over the western US due to the better initial specification afforded by satellite observed temperatures over the North Pacific Ocean is shown.

Electric heating of I-84 in Ladd Canyon, Oregon.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-06-01

When highway grades in mountainous areas and superelevation on curved sections are combined with adverse winter weather conditions, these sections of highway can become particularly hazardous for large truck traffic. This report covers the design and...

Assessment of winter air pollution episodes using long-range transport modeling in Hangzhou, China, during World Internet Conference, 2015.

PubMed

Ni, Zhi-Zhen; Luo, Kun; Zhang, Jun-Xi; Feng, Rui; Zheng, He-Xin; Zhu, Hao-Ran; Wang, Jing-Fan; Fan, Jian-Ren; Gao, Xiang; Cen, Ke-Fa

2018-05-01

A winter air pollution episode was observed in Hangzhou, South China, during the Second World Internet Conference, 2015. To study the pollution characteristics and underlying causes, the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry model was used to simulate the spatial and temporal evolution of the pollution episode from December 8 to 19, 2015. In addition to scenario simulations, analysis of the atmospheric trajectory and synoptic weather conditions were also performed. The results demonstrated that control measures implemented during the week preceding the conference reduced the fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) pollution level to some extent, with a decline in the total PM 2.5 concentration in Hangzhou of 15% (7%-25% daily). Pollutant long-range transport, which occurred due to a southward intrusion of strong cold air driven by the Siberia High, led to severe pollution in Hangzhou on December 15, 2015, accounting for 85% of the PM 2.5 concentration. This study provides new insights into the challenge of winter pollution prevention in Hangzhou. For adequate pollution prevention, more regional collaborations should be fostered when creating policies for northern China. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Verification of an ENSO-Based Long-Range Prediction of Anomalous Weather Conditions During the Vancouver 2010 Olympics and Paralympics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mo, Ruping; Joe, Paul I.; Doyle, Chris; Whitfield, Paul H.

2014-01-01

A brief review of the anomalous weather conditions during the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games and the efforts to predict these anomalies based on some preceding El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signals are presented. It is shown that the Olympic Games were held under extraordinarily warm conditions in February 2010, with monthly mean temperature anomalies of +2.2 °C in Vancouver and +2.8 °C in Whistler, ranking respectively as the highest and the second highest in the past 30 years (1981-2010). The warm conditions continued, but became less anomalous, in March 2010 for the Paralympic Games. While the precipitation amounts in the area remained near normal through this winter, the lack of snow due to warm conditions created numerous media headlines and practical problems for the alpine competitions. A statistical model was developed on the premise that February and March temperatures in the Vancouver area could be predicted using an ENSO signal with considerable lead time. This model successfully predicted the warmer-than-normal, lower-snowfall conditions for the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics and Paralympics.

Weather modeling for hazard and consequence assessment operations during the 2006 Winter Olympic Games

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayes, P.; Trigg, J. L.; Stauffer, D.; Hunter, G.; McQueen, J.

2006-05-01

Consequence assessment (CA) operations are those processes that attempt to mitigate negative impacts of incidents involving hazardous materials such as chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, and high explosive (CBRNE) agents, facilities, weapons, or transportation. Incident types range from accidental spillage of chemicals at/en route to/from a manufacturing plant, to the deliberate use of radiological or chemical material as a weapon in a crowded city. The impacts of these incidents are highly variable, from little or no impact to catastrophic loss of life and property. Local and regional scale atmospheric conditions strongly influence atmospheric transport and dispersion processes in the boundary layer, and the extent and scope of the spread of dangerous materials in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Therefore, CA personnel charged with managing the consequences of CBRNE incidents must have detailed knowledge of current and future weather conditions to accurately model potential effects. A meteorology team was established at the U.S. Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) to provide weather support to CA personnel operating DTRA's CA tools, such as the Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC) tool. The meteorology team performs three main functions: 1) regular provision of meteorological data for use by personnel using HPAC, 2) determination of the best performing medium-range model forecast for the 12 - 48 hour timeframe and 3) provision of real-time help-desk support to users regarding acquisition and use of weather in HPAC CA applications. The normal meteorology team operations were expanded during a recent modeling project which took place during the 2006 Winter Olympic Games. The meteorology team took advantage of special weather observation datasets available in the domain of the Winter Olympic venues and undertook a project to improve weather modeling at high resolution. The varied and complex terrain provided a special challenge to the modelers on the meteorology team. Some of the Olympic venues were located in the mountains to the west of Torino, while the rest were located on the relatively flat plain in and around the cities of Pinerolo and Torino to the east. DTRA partners at Pennsylvania State University (PSU) and the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) established data collection and assimilation, and forecast modeling processes that used special weather station observations provided by the Area Previsione e Monitoraggio Ambientale of Italy's ARPA Piemonte. At PSU a version of the MM5 was especially prepared to use observation data to forecast weather in a four-nest configuration. Two other DTRA partners provided independent weather forecast models against which the PSU model data were compared. The U.S. Air Force Weather Agency provided its MM5 forecast model data and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Centers for Environmental Prediction provided data from a special version of their WRF model. The project produced many opportunities to improve the modeling and forecasting capability at DTRA. DTRA and its partners plan to expand upon this experience during upcoming field tests, and to further improve and expand the capability to provide accurate high-resolution weather forecast information to hazard and consequence assessment operations.

Limitations related to marine operations in the Barents Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gudmestad, O. T.

2017-12-01

Some marine activities in the Barents Sea are normally ongoing year-round; others are dependent on limited weather windows. The limitations for the marine operations are the special weather conditions characterized by unpredictable Polar Low situations during the fall, winter and spring seasons, as well as cold temperatures that also are causing sea spray icing and the potential for drifting ice in certain parts of the Sea. It must also be realized that large distances combined with challenging meteorological and oceanographic criteria as well as darkness during the winter period represents a concern for evacuation and rescue, should it be necessary to abandon ships and platforms. The long distances to the locations farthest away from shore are, furthermore, out of reach of helicopter assistance. These aspects make it necessary to conduct hazard identification studies and to include all relevant historical knowledge in the hazard identification session, prior to the execution of marine operations in the Barents Sea.

ERICA plans for winter storms field study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hadlock, Ron

The Experiment on Rapidly Intensifying Cyclones over the Atlantic (ERICA) field study will be conducted between December 1, 1988, and February 28, 1989. The oceanic area that is approximately bounded by t he Gulf Stream and North America, from coastal Carolina to just east of Newfoundland, will be the region for special observations obtained by recently developed measurement systems, including high-resolution and safe Loran-C dropwindsondes, CLASS rawinsondes, an array of drifting data buoys, and multiple airborne Doppler radars. The special observations will be acquired within a framework of all conventional operational data available for the eastern United States and Canada, including that from the National Weather Service's land sites (plus supplemental rawinsonde observations), ocean platforms, U.S. Air Force WC-130 National Winter Storms Operations Plan reconnaissance flights, and civilian and military weather satellites. Satellite imagery and soundings willl be available in real time and archived through facilities of NOAA and the military.

Is Snow a sufficient Source of Water for Horses kept Outdoors in Winter? A Case Report

PubMed Central

Mejdell, CM; Simensen, E; Bøe, KE

2005-01-01

Due to extreme weather conditions, a flock of outwintered Icelandic horses had to manage for several days on snow as the source of free water. They were fed grass silage ad lib, and any change in feed consumption was not observed. After nine days, blood samples were taken and analysed for plasma osmolality, they were subjected to a simple clinical examination, and offered drinking water. Osmolality levels were within normal limits and mean value did not differ significantly from samples which previously were taken of the same individuals. The general condition of the horses was normal, with no signs of clinical dehydration or disease. The horses showed very little interest for the offered drinking water. This suggests that in cold winter weather, horses being fed grass silage and adjusted to eat snow, can manage for several days with snow substituting liquid water without their physiology and welfare being challenged. PMID:16108209

Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, Brage B.; Isaksen, Ketil; Benestad, Rasmus E.; Kohler, Jack; Pedersen, Åshild Ø.; Loe, Leif E.; Coulson, Stephen J.; Larsen, Jan Otto; Varpe, Øystein

2014-11-01

One predicted consequence of global warming is an increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, or heavy rainfalls. In parts of the Arctic, extreme warm spells and heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) events in winter are already more frequent. How these weather events impact snow-pack and permafrost characteristics is rarely documented empirically, and the implications for wildlife and society are hence far from understood. Here we characterize and document the effects of an extreme warm spell and ROS event that occurred in High Arctic Svalbard in January-February 2012, during the polar night. In this normally cold semi-desert environment, we recorded above-zero temperatures (up to 7 °C) across the entire archipelago and record-breaking precipitation, with up to 98 mm rainfall in one day (return period of >500 years prior to this event) and 272 mm over the two-week long warm spell. These precipitation amounts are equivalent to 25 and 70% respectively of the mean annual total precipitation. The extreme event caused significant increase in permafrost temperatures down to at least 5 m depth, induced slush avalanches with resultant damage to infrastructure, and left a significant ground-ice cover (˜5-20 cm thick basal ice). The ground-ice not only affected inhabitants by closing roads and airports as well as reducing mobility and thereby tourism income, but it also led to high starvation-induced mortality in all monitored populations of the wild reindeer by blocking access to the winter food source. Based on empirical-statistical downscaling of global climate models run under the moderate RCP4.5 emission scenario, we predict strong future warming with average mid-winter temperatures even approaching 0 °C, suggesting increased frequency of ROS. This will have far-reaching implications for Arctic ecosystems and societies through the changes in snow-pack and permafrost properties.

Increased Internal Atmospheric Variability Contributed to the Persistence of the California Drought Through the 2015/16 El Niño

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaiss, J.; Stott, L. D.; Buenning, N. H.

2017-12-01

The 2015/16 El Niño was one of the strongest on record and was expected to bring relief to the prolonged drought that had affected California for the previous four years. Virtually all seasonal forecast models predicted a wet winter over California, similar to the 1997/98 El Niño winter season. However, as the El Niño event came and went, the drought persisted through 2015/16. We are investigating why the 2015/16 El Niño winter was anomalous dry by conducting ensemble simulations using the atmospheric Global Spectral Model (GSM) forced with observed sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentration. Our results indicate increased variance in precipitation amounts compared to the 1997/98 El Niño, possibly suggesting an increase in atmospheric internal variability. Recent work has shown a possible role of declining Arctic sea ice in mid-latitude weather extremes through variations of the jet stream that could account for the increased precipitation variance. When Arctic sea ice concentrations are low, the jet stream tends to be wavier, slowing meanders that propagate storm systems towards the southwestern US. To investigate the role that sea ice decline played in prolonging the California drought and the observed change in precipitation variance, statistical analyses of metrological data together with ensemble simulations with GSM are used to evaluate differences between the 1997/98 and 2015/2016 El Niño events. We force GSM with 1997/98 SST anomalies but use the 2015/16 sea ice concentration. By doing so we quantify the effect of decreased sea ice concentration on the 2015/16 El Niño event wet season. These results not only elucidate how declining sea ice affected mid-latitude weather systems during the 2015/16 El Niño winter, they also contribute to the ongoing discussion about how declining sea ice may influence weather events and their predictability in the 21st century.

Attribution of UK Winter Floods to Anthropogenic Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaller, N.; Alison, K.; Sparrow, S. N.; Otto, F. E. L.; Massey, N.; Vautard, R.; Yiou, P.; van Oldenborgh, G. J.; van Haren, R.; Lamb, R.; Huntingford, C.; Crooks, S.; Legg, T.; Weisheimer, A.; Bowery, A.; Miller, J.; Jones, R.; Stott, P.; Allen, M. R.

2014-12-01

Many regions of southern UK experienced severe flooding during the 2013/2014 winter. Simultaneously, large areas in the USA and Canada were struck by prolonged cold weather. At the time, the media and public asked whether the general rainy conditions over northern Europe and the cold weather over North America were caused by climate change. Providing an answer to this question is not trivial, but recent studies show that probabilistic event attribution is feasible. Using the citizen science project weather@home, we ran over 40'000 perturbed initial condition simulations of the 2013/2014 winter. These simulations fall into two categories: one set aims at simulating the world with climate change using observed sea surface temperatures while the second set is run with sea surface temperatures corresponding to a world that might have been without climate change. The relevant modelled variables are then downscaled by a hydrological model to obtain river flows. First results show that anthropogenic climate change led to a small but significant increase in the fractional attributable risk for 30-days peak flows for the river Thames. A single number can summarize the final result from probabilistic attribution studies indicating, for example, an increase, decrease or no change to the risk of the event occurring. However, communicating this to the public, media and other scientists remains challenging. The assumptions made in the chain of models used need to be explained. In addition, extreme events, like the UK floods of the 2013/2014 winter, are usually caused by a range of factors. While heavy precipitation events can be caused by dynamic and/or thermodynamic processes, floods occur only partly as a response to heavy precipitation. Depending on the catchment, they can be largely due to soil properties and conditions of the previous months. Probabilistic attribution studies are multidisciplinary and therefore all aspects need to be communicated properly.

Assessment of bird response to the Migratory Bird Habitat Initiative using weather-surveillance radar

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sieges, Mason L.; Smolinsky, Jaclyn A.; Baldwin, Michael J.; Barrow, Wylie C.; Randall, Lori A.; Buler, Jeffrey J.

2014-01-01

In response to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in spring 2010, the Natural Resources Conservation Service implemented the Migratory Bird Habitat Initiative (MBHI) to provide temporary wetland habitat for migrating and wintering waterfowl, shorebirds, and other birds along the northern Gulf of Mexico via managed flooding of agricultural lands. We used weather-surveillance radar to conduct broad regional assessments of bird response to MBHI activities within the Mississippi Alluvial Valley and the West Gulf Coastal Plain. Across both regions, birds responded positively to MBHI management by exhibiting greater relative bird densities within sites relative to pre-management conditions in prior years and relative to surrounding non-flooded agricultural lands. Bird density at MBHI sites was generally greatest during winter for both regions. Unusually high flooding in the years prior to implementation of the MBHI confounded detection of overall changes in remotely sensed soil wetness across sites. The magnitude of bird response at MBHI sites compared to prior years and to non-flooded agricultural lands was generally related to the surrounding landscape context: proximity to areas of high bird density, amount of forested wetlands, emergent marsh, non-flooded agriculture, or permanent open water. However, these relationships varied in strength and direction between regions and seasons, a finding which we attribute to differences in seasonal bird composition and broad regional differences in landscape configuration and composition. We detected greater increases in relative bird use at sites in closer proximity to areas of high bird density during winter in both regions. Additionally, bird density was greater during winter at sites with more emergent marsh in the surrounding landscape. Thus, bird use of managed wetlands could be maximized by enrolling lands located near areas of known bird concentration and within a mosaic of existing wetlands. Weather-radar observations provide strong evidence that MBHI sites located inland from coastal wetlands impacted by the oil spill provided wetland habitat used by a variety of birds.

Analysis of extreme summers and prior late winter/spring conditions in central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Träger-Chatterjee, C.; Müller, R. W.; Bendix, J.

2013-05-01

Drought and heat waves during summer in mid-latitudes are a serious threat to human health and agriculture and have negative impacts on the infrastructure, such as problems in energy supply. The appearance of such extreme events is expected to increase with the progress of global warming. A better understanding of the development of extremely hot and dry summers and the identification of possible precursors could help improve existing seasonal forecasts in this regard, and could possibly lead to the development of early warning methods. The development of extremely hot and dry summer seasons in central Europe is attributed to a combined effect of the dominance of anticyclonic weather regimes and soil moisture-atmosphere interactions. The atmospheric circulation largely determines the amount of solar irradiation and the amount of precipitation in an area. These two variables are themselves major factors controlling the soil moisture. Thus, solar irradiation and precipitation are used as proxies to analyse extreme sunny and dry late winter/spring and summer seasons for the period 1958-2011 in Germany and adjacent areas. For this purpose, solar irradiation data from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast 40-yr and interim re-analysis dataset, as well as remote sensing data are used. Precipitation data are taken from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project. To analyse the atmospheric circulation geopotential data at 850 hPa are also taken from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast 40-yr and interim re-analysis datasets. For the years in which extreme summers in terms of high solar irradiation and low precipitation are identified, the previous late winter/spring conditions of solar irradiation and precipitation in Germany and adjacent areas are analysed. Results show that if the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is not very intensely developed, extremely high solar irradiation amounts, together with extremely low precipitation amounts during late winter/spring, might serve as precursor of extremely sunny and dry summer months to be expected.

Winter movements of Louisiana pine snakes (Pituophis ruthveni) in Texas and Louisiana

Treesearch

Josh B. Pierce; D. Craig Rudolph; Shirley J. Burgdorf; Richard R. Schaefer; Richard N. Conner; John G. Himes; C. Mike Duran; Laurence M. Hardy; Robert R. Fleet

2014-01-01

Despite concerns that the Louisiana Pine Snake (Pituophis ruthveni) has been extirpated from large portions of its historic range, only a limited number of studies on their movement patterns have been published. Winter movement patterns are of particular interest since it has been hypothesized that impacts of management practices would be reduced during the winter....

KSC-06pd1279

NASA Image and Video Library

2006-06-28

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - Under the watchful eyes of the media, an upper-level weather balloon begins its lift into the sky. The release of the balloon at the Cape Canaveral weather station in Florida was part of a media tour prior to the launch of Space Shuttle Discovery on mission STS-121 July 1. The radar-tracked balloon detects wind shears that can affect a shuttle launch. At the facility, which is operated by the U.S. Air Force 45th Weather Squadron, media saw the tools used by the weather team to create the forecast for launch day. They received a briefing on how the launch weather forecast is developed by Shuttle Weather Officer Kathy Winters and met the forecasters for the space shuttle and the expendable launch vehicles. Also participating were members of the Applied Meteorology Unit who provide special expertise to the forecasters by analyzing and interpreting unusual or inconsistent weather data. The media were able to see the release of the Rawinsonde weather balloon carrying instruments aloft to be used as part of developing the forecast. Photo credit: NASA/George Shelton

NASA Airline Operations Research Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mogford, Richard H.

2016-01-01

This is a PowerPoint presentation NASA airline operations center (AOC) research. It includes information on using IBM Watson in the AOC. It also reviews a dispatcher decision support tool call the Flight Awareness Collaboration Tool (FACT). FACT gathers information about winter weather onto one screen and includes predictive abilities. It should prove to be useful for airline dispatchers and airport personnel when they manage winter storms and their effect on air traffic. This material is very similar to other previously approved presentations with the same title.

Problems in evaluating regional and local trends in temperature: An example from eastern Colorado, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pielke, R.A.; Stohlgren, T.; Schell, L.; Parton, W.; Doesken, N.; Redmond, K.; Moeny, J.; McKee, T.; Kittel, T.G.F.

2002-01-01

We evaluated long-term trends in average maximum and minimum temperatures, threshold temperatures, and growing season in eastern Colorado, USA, to explore the potential shortcomings of many climate-change studies that either: (1) generalize regional patterns from single stations, single seasons, or a few parameters over short duration from averaging dissimilar stations: or (2) generalize an average regional pattern from coarse-scale general circulation models. Based on 11 weather stations, some trends were weakly regionally consistent with previous studies of night-time temperature warming. Long-term (80 + years) mean minimum temperatures increased significantly (P < 0.2) in about half the stations in winter, spring, and autumn and six stations had significant decreases in the number of days per year with temperatures ??? - 17.8 ??C (???0??F). However, spatial and temporal variation in the direction of change was enormous for all the other weather parameters tested, and, in the majority of tests, few stations showed significant trends (even at P < 0.2). In summer, four stations had significant increases and three stations had significant decreases in minimum temperatures, producing a strongly mixed regional signal. Trends in maximum temperature varied seasonally and geographically, as did trends in threshold temperature days ???32.2??C (???90??F) or days ???37.8??C (???100??F). There was evidence of a subregional cooling in autumn's maximum temperatures, with five stations showing significant decreasing trends. There were many geographic anomalies where neighbouring weather stations differed greatly in the magnitude of change or where they had significant and opposite trends. We conclude that sub-regional spatial and seasonal variation cannot be ignored when evaluating the direction and magnitude of climate change. It is unlikely that one or a few weather stations are representative of regional climate trends, and equally unlikely that regionally projected climate change from coarse-scale general circulation models will accurately portray trends at sub-regional scales. However, the assessment of a group of stations for consistent more qualitative trends (such as the number of days less than - 17.8??C, such as we found) provides a reasonably robust procedure to evaluate climate trends and variability. Copyright ?? 2002 Royal Meteorological Society.

The experiences of participating in winter among youths with a physical disability compared with their typically developing peers.

PubMed

Lindsay, S; Morales, E; Yantzi, N; Vincent, C; Howell, L; Edwards, G

2015-11-01

Having a physical disability and using a wheelchair can create difficulties in navigating the physical and built environment, especially during winter when snow and ice become problematic. Little is known about the experiences of winter among youth who use an assistive mobility device. This study aimed to understand how youth with a physical disability experience winter, compared with typically developing peers. A purposive sample of 25 youths (13 with a physical disability; 12 typically developing) completed a 2-week weather journal and photographs in two Canadian cities during winter. These data were used to guide semi-structured interviews with participants. Youths with disabilities experienced many similar challenges in winter, such as health and safety concerns and accessibility issues, compared with typically developing youth - but to a greater extent. Youths with disabilities reported more challenges going outdoors during winter and negative psychosocial impacts, including loneliness and increased dependence, compared with peers without a disability. They also, however, described developing several adaptive strategies to cope with these challenges. There is a strong need to remove physical and environmental barriers to facilitate the participation and inclusion of youth with disabilities in winter. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Relationship of deer and moose populations to previous winters' snow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mech, L.D.; McRoberts, R.E.; Peterson, R.O.; Page, R.E.

1987-01-01

(1) Linear regression was used to relate snow accumulation during single and consecutive winters with white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) fawn:doe ratios, mosse (Alces alces) twinning rates and calf:cow ratios, and annual changes in deer and moose populations. Significant relationships were found between snow accumulation during individual winters and these dependent variables during the following year. However, the strongest relationships were between the dependent variables and the sums of the snow accumulations over the previous three winters. The percentage of the variability explained was 36 to 51. (2) Significant relationships were also found between winter vulnerability of moose calves and the sum of the snow accumulations in the current, and up to seven previous, winters, with about 49% of the variability explained. (3) No relationship was found between wolf numbers and the above dependent variables. (4) These relationships imply that winter influences on maternal nutrition can accumulate for several years and that this cumulative effect strongly determines fecundity and/or calf and fawn survivability. Although wolf (Canis lupus L.) predation is the main direct mortality agent on fawns and calves, wolf density itself appears to be secondary to winter weather in influencing the deer and moose populations.

Winter atmospheric circulation signature for the timing of the spring bloom of diatoms in the North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lohmann, Gerrit; Wiltshire, Karen

2015-04-01

Analysing long-term diatom data from the German Bight and observational climate data for the period 1962-2005, we found a close connection of the inter-annual variation of the timing of the spring bloom with the boreal winter atmospheric circulation. We examined the fact that high diatom counts of the spring bloom tended to occur later when the atmospheric circulation was characterized by winter blocking over Scandinavia. The associated pattern in the sea level pressure showed a pressure dipole with two centres located over the Azores and Norway and was tilted compared to the North Atlantic Oscillation. The bloom was earlier when the cyclonic circulation over Scandinavia allowed an increased inflow of Atlantic water into the North Sea which is associated with clearer, more marine water, and warmer conditions. The bloom was later when a more continental atmospheric flow from the east was detected. At Helgoland Roads, it seems that under turbid water conditions (= low light) zooplankton grazing can affect the timing of the phytoplankton bloom negatively. Warmer water temperatures will facilitate this. Under clear water conditions, light will be the main governing factor with regard to the timing of the spring bloom. These different water conditions are shown here to be mainly related to large-scale weather patterns. We found that the mean diatom bloom could be predicted from the sea level pressure one to three months in advance. Using historical pressure data, we derived a proxy for the timing of the spring bloom over the last centuries, showing an increased number of late (proxy-) blooms during the eighteenth century when the climate was considerably colder than today. We argue that these variations are important for the interpretation of inter-annual to centennial variations of biological processes. This is of particular interest when considering future scenarios, as well to considerations on past and future effects on the primary production and food webs.

Patterns of Seasonal Heat Uptake and Release Over the Arctic Ocean Between 1979-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helmberger, M. N.; Serreze, M. C.

2017-12-01

As the Arctic Ocean loses its sea ice cover, there is a stronger oceanic heat gain from the surface fluxes throughout the spring and summer; ultimately meaning that there is more energy to transfer out of the ocean to the atmosphere and outer space in the autumn and winter. Recent work has shown that the increased oceanic heat content at the end of summer in turn delays autumn ice growth, with implications for marine shipping and other economic activities. Some of the autumn and winter heat loss to the atmosphere is represented by evaporation, which increases the atmospheric water vapor content, and there is growing evidence that this is contributing to increases in regional precipitation. However, depending on patterns of seasonal sea ice retreat and weather conditions, the spring-summer heat uptake and autumn-winter heat loss can be highly variable from year to year and regionally. Here, we examine how the seasonality in upper ocean heat uptake and release has evolved over the past 37 years and the relationships between this seasonal heat gain and loss and the evolution of sea ice cover. We determine which regions have seen the largest increases in total seasonal heat uptake and how variable this uptake can be. Has the timing at which the Arctic Ocean (either as a whole or by region) transitions from an atmospheric energy sink to an atmospheric energy source (or from a source to a sink) appreciably changed? What changes have been observed in the seasonal rates of seasonal heat uptake and release? To begin answering these questions, use is made of surface fluxes from the ERA-Interim reanalysis and satellite-derived sea ice extent spanning the period 1979 through the present. Results from ERA-Interim will be compared to those from other reanalyses and satellite-derived flux estimates.

Weather features associated with aircraft icing conditions: a case study.

PubMed

Fernández-González, Sergio; Sánchez, José Luis; Gascón, Estíbaliz; López, Laura; García-Ortega, Eduardo; Merino, Andrés

2014-01-01

In the context of aviation weather hazards, the study of aircraft icing is very important because of several accidents attributed to it over recent decades. On February 1, 2012, an unusual meteorological situation caused severe icing of a C-212-200, an aircraft used during winter 2011-2012 to study winter cloud systems in the Guadarrama Mountains of the central Iberian Peninsula. Observations in this case were from a MP-3000A microwave radiometric profiler, which acquired atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles continuously every 2.5 minutes. A Cloud Aerosol and Precipitation Spectrometer (CAPS) was also used to study cloud hydrometeors. Finally, ice nuclei concentration was measured in an isothermal cloud chamber, with the goal of calculating concentrations in the study area. Synoptic and mesoscale meteorological conditions were analysed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. It was demonstrated that topography influenced generation of a mesolow and gravity waves on the lee side of the orographic barrier, in the region where the aircraft experienced icing. Other factors such as moisture, wind direction, temperature, atmospheric stability, and wind shear were decisive in the appearance of icing. This study indicates that icing conditions may arise locally, even when the synoptic situation does not indicate any risk.

Weather Condition dominates the Regional PM2.5 Pollutions in the Eastern Coastal Provinces of China during winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Zhe; Jiang, Fei; Chen, Jingming; Jiang, Ziqiang

2017-04-01

China has been suffering from severe particulate matter (PM) pollution in recent years. Both pollution area and pollution levels are increasing gradually. The PM pollution episodes not only occur in the traditional developed areas like Yangtze River Delta (YRD) and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, but also frequently happen in the whole eastern coastal provinces (ECPs) of China. Based on hourly PM2.5 concentrations during December 2013 February 2014 of 55 cities located in the ECPs, we investigated the spatial and temporal variabilities of PM2.5 concentrations and the corresponding meteorological conditions during winter. The results shown that basically the seasonal mean concentrations over the whole ECPs exceeded the China's national standard of 75 μg/m3, and the most polluted area with mean concentrations greater than 150 μg/m3 were located in the southwest of Hebei and the west of Shandong provinces. From December to February, there was a decrease trend for the PM2.5 pollution in most areas, especially in the YRD region, while the PM2.5 concentrations over north of Hebei province increased. The spatial distributions and monthly variations are strongly related to the weather conditions. Overall, severe PM pollution was corresponding to a stable weather condition, i.e., small Sea Level Pressure (SLP) gradient, lower Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) height and weaker wind fields. Statistics shown that the changes of mean PM2.5 concentrations over the ECPs region usually lagged behind the variations of PBL height and wind speeds about 12 18 hours. The variations of weather conditions could explain about 71% (R2) of the overall changes of PM2.5 concentrations in the ECPs region. This study gives a full insight into the PM2.5 pollution in the area of eastern coastal provinces of China during winter, which would be helpful to predict and control the PM2.5 pollution for this area in the future.

Sources and characteristics of medium-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances observed by high-frequency radars in the North American sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frissell, N. A.; Baker, J. B. H.; Ruohoniemi, J. M.; Greenwald, R. A.; Gerrard, A. J.; Miller, E. S.; West, M. L.

2016-04-01

Medium-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (MSTIDs) are wave-like ionospheric perturbations routinely observed by high-frequency radars. We focus on a class of MSTIDs observed during the winter daytime at high latitudes and midlatitudes. The source of these MSTIDs remains uncertain, with the two primary candidates being space weather and lower atmospheric processes. We surveyed observations from four high-latitude and six midlatitude Super Dual Auroral Radar Network radars in the North American sector from November to May 2012 to 2015. The MSTIDs observed have horizontal wavelengths between ˜150 and 650 km and horizontal velocities between ˜75 and 325 m s-1. In local fall and winter seasons the majority of MSTIDs propagated equatorward, with bearings ranging from ˜125° to 225° geographic azimuth. No clear correlation with space weather activity as parameterized by AE and SYM-H could be identified. Rather, MSTID observations were found to have a strong correlation with polar vortex dynamics on two timescales. First, a seasonal timescale follows the annual development and decay of the polar vortex. Second, a shorter 2-4 week timescale again corresponds to synoptic polar vortex variability, including stratospheric warmings. Additionally, statistical analysis shows that MSTIDs are more likely during periods of strong polar vortex. Direct comparison of the MSTID observations with stratospheric zonal winds suggests that a wind filtering mechanism may be responsible for the strong correlation. Collectively, these observations suggest that polar atmospheric processes, rather than space weather activity, are primarily responsible for controlling the occurrence of high-latitude and midlatitude winter daytime MSTIDs.

Sources and Characteristics of Medium Scale Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances Observed by High Frequency Radars in the North American Sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frissell, N. A.; Baker, J. B.; Ruohoniemi, J. M.; Greenwald, R. A.; Gerrard, A. J.; Miller, E. S.; West, M. L.

2016-12-01

Medium-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (MSTIDs) are wave-like ionospheric perturbations routinely observed by high-frequency radars. We focus on a class of MSTIDs observed during the winter daytime at high latitudes and midlatitudes. The source of these MSTIDs remains uncertain, with the two primary candidates being space weather and lower atmospheric processes. We surveyed observations from four high-latitude and six midlatitude Super Dual Auroral Radar Network radars in the North American sector from November to May 2012 to 2015. The MSTIDs observed have horizontal wavelengths between 150 and 650 km and horizontal velocities between 75 and 325 m/s. In local fall and winter seasons the majority of MSTIDs propagated equatorward, with bearings ranging from 125° to 225° geographic azimuth. No clear correlation with space weather activity as parameterized by AE and SYM-H could be identified. Rather, MSTID observations were found to have a strong correlation with polar vortex dynamics on two timescales. First, a seasonal timescale follows the annual development and decay of the polar vortex. Second, a shorter 2-4 week timescale again corresponds to synoptic polar vortex variability, including stratospheric warmings. Additionally, statistical analysis shows that MSTIDs are more likely during periods of strong polar vortex. Direct comparison of the MSTID observations with stratospheric zonal winds suggests that a wind filtering mechanism may be responsible for the strong correlation. Collectively, these observations suggest that polar atmospheric processes, rather than space weather activity, are primarily responsible for controlling the occurrence of high-latitude and midlatitude winter daytime MSTIDs.

The predicted influence of climate change on lesser prairie-chicken reproductive parameters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grisham, Blake A.; Boal, Clint W.; Haukos, David A.; Davis, D.; Boydston, Kathy K.; Dixon, Charles; Heck, Willard R.

2013-01-01

The Southern High Plains is anticipated to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change. These changes may influence the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) in positive or negative ways. We assessed the potential changes in clutch size, incubation start date, and nest survival for lesser prairie-chickens for the years 2050 and 2080 based on modeled predictions of climate change and reproductive data for lesser prairie-chickens from 2001-2011 on the Southern High Plains of Texas and New Mexico. We developed 9 a priori models to assess the relationship between reproductive parameters and biologically relevant weather conditions. We selected weather variable(s) with the most model support and then obtained future predicted values from climatewizard.org. We conducted 1,000 simulations using each reproductive parameter's linear equation obtained from regression calculations, and the future predicted value for each weather variable to predict future reproductive parameter values for lesser prairie-chickens. There was a high degree of model uncertainty for each reproductive value. Winter temperature had the greatest effect size for all three parameters, suggesting a negative relationship between above-average winter temperature and reproductive output. The above-average winter temperatures are correlated to La Nina events, which negatively affect lesser prairie-chickens through resulting drought conditions. By 2050 and 2080, nest survival was predicted to be below levels considered viable for population persistence; however, our assessment did not consider annual survival of adults, chick survival, or the positive benefit of habitat management and conservation, which may ultimately offset the potentially negative effect of drought on nest survival.

The predicted influence of climate change on lesser prairie-chicken reproductive parameters.

PubMed

Grisham, Blake A; Boal, Clint W; Haukos, David A; Davis, Dawn M; Boydston, Kathy K; Dixon, Charles; Heck, Willard R

2013-01-01

The Southern High Plains is anticipated to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change. These changes may influence the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) in positive or negative ways. We assessed the potential changes in clutch size, incubation start date, and nest survival for lesser prairie-chickens for the years 2050 and 2080 based on modeled predictions of climate change and reproductive data for lesser prairie-chickens from 2001-2011 on the Southern High Plains of Texas and New Mexico. We developed 9 a priori models to assess the relationship between reproductive parameters and biologically relevant weather conditions. We selected weather variable(s) with the most model support and then obtained future predicted values from climatewizard.org. We conducted 1,000 simulations using each reproductive parameter's linear equation obtained from regression calculations, and the future predicted value for each weather variable to predict future reproductive parameter values for lesser prairie-chickens. There was a high degree of model uncertainty for each reproductive value. Winter temperature had the greatest effect size for all three parameters, suggesting a negative relationship between above-average winter temperature and reproductive output. The above-average winter temperatures are correlated to La Niña events, which negatively affect lesser prairie-chickens through resulting drought conditions. By 2050 and 2080, nest survival was predicted to be below levels considered viable for population persistence; however, our assessment did not consider annual survival of adults, chick survival, or the positive benefit of habitat management and conservation, which may ultimately offset the potentially negative effect of drought on nest survival.

Effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and global warming on drought in the US Southwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grossmann, I.

2012-12-01

Droughts are among the most expensive weather related disasters in the US. In the semi-arid regions of the US Southwest, where average annual rainfall is already very low, multiyear droughts can have large economic, societal and ecological impacts. The US Southwest relies on annual precipitation maxima during winter and the North American Monsoon (NAM), both of which undergo considerable interannual variability associated with large-scale climate patterns, in particular ENSO, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The region is also part of the subtropical belt projected to become more arid in a warming climate. These impacts have not been combined and compared with projections of long-term variations due to natural climate patterns. This study addresses this need by deriving future projections of rainfall departures for Arizona and New Mexico with the PDO and AMO and combining these with projected global warming impacts. Depending on the precipitation dataset used, the impacts for the ongoing negative PDO phase are projected to be between 1-1.6 times as large as the multi-model means projection of precipitation minus evaporation during 2020-2040 in the IPCC A1B Scenario. The projected precipitation impacts of a combined negative PDO and positive AMO phase are between 1-2 times as large as the A1B Scenario projection. The study also advances earlier work by addressing problems in detecting the effect of the PDO on precipitation. Given the different mechanisms with which the PDO affects precipitation during winter and the NAM season, precipitation impacts are here investigated on a monthly scale. The impacts of the PDO also vary with other climate patterns. This can be partly addressed by investigating precipitation departures in dependence on other patterns. It is further found that the long-term effect of the PDO can be more clearly separated from short-term variability by considering return periods of multi-year drought measures rather than return periods of simple drought measures.

The Argentinean network for the assessment and monitoring of Pampean shallow-lakes (PAMPA2)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zagarese, H. E.

2012-12-01

The Pampa region of Argentina is an extensive wetland containing nearly 200,000 shallow-lakes. The region is under increasing agricultural pressure resulting from climate change (increased temperature and precipitation) and the substitution of cattle breeding and traditional cultures by transgenic soy. Among the many services that they provide, shallow-lakes are highly responsive to changes in climate and land use. Therefore, long-term studies of shallow-lakes provide useful clues to understand and track changes occurring in their complex watersheds. PAMPA2 is a recently funded, long-term network project, with wide geographic coverage, aimed at studying Pampean shallow-lakes. Thirteen network sites (i.e., shallow lakes) occurring along the precipitation gradient (from < 300 mm y-1 to > 1000 mm y-1) form the core of the project. The network integrates various research teams from eight universities and research centers, with a strong multidisciplinary component. The approaches combine traditional sampling; high-rate monitoring using automated sensors; and remote sensing. The network develops and manufactures most the instruments, including automated buoys and unmanned aircrafts. In this presentation, we will provide details on the structure and state of development of the PAMPA2 network, and present a long-term case study of a large Pampean shallow-lake, exemplifying the strong dependence of lake processes on weather variables. Laguna Chascomús is a large, hypertrophic shallow-lake. Chascomús is one of the PAMPA2 study sites that have been more extensively studied. In this shallow-lake, high nutrient availability permits the development of a dense microbial plankton community, which in turn translates into exceptionally high water turbidity. Phytoplankton primary production is strongly limited by light availability. As a consequence, turbidity is strongly and positively correlated to the incoming solar radiation, resulting in a remarkable seasonal pattern of water transparency. Species composition within the microbial plankton community is remarkable stable. But some important features vary seasonally. Although the microbial plankton biomass is higher around the summer solstice (SS), its phosphorous content per unit biomass is higher around the winter solstice (WS), which results in an unanticipated bimodal pattern of phosphorous concentration, with maxima occurring around the spring and fall equinoxes. Many optical characteristics also vary seasonally and suggest that, as a whole, the microbial plankton community is more autotrophic around the WS, and more heterotrophic around the SS. Life table experiments, using dominant zooplankton grazers (rotifers), indicated that the microbial food quality is higher in winter than in summer. Incoming solar radiation and temperature account for much of the lake seasonal dynamics. Shallow-lakes, such Laguna Chascomús are well suited for long-term studies and the emplacement of automated sensors. Despite the high system complexity, many processes are remarkable repeatable and reproducible at mesocosm-scales. Long-term time series of lake and weather variables will provide a strong basement for understanding climate variability, such as the cyclic changes in precipitation, which greatly affects lake depth; and the seemingly stochastic cold weather periods, producing massive winter fish kill events.

The measured study of natural weathering performance of reflective thermal insulation coating in hot-summer and warm-winter region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Zhao; Dafu, Weng; Jie, Gu; Binbin, Li

2017-11-01

In order to study the attenuation performance of solar direct reflectance of reflective thermal insulation coating under natural weathering, we conducted a measured study on five coatings with the built natural weathering platform. After the 18-month natural weathering experiments, the color of coating templets turn undertint or black with coating layer pulverized and fallen off, some of the templets starting to crack, fall off and go mouldy. Meanwhile, the reflectance ratio of reflective thermal insulation coating decreased significantly after 3 to 6 months, the degree of attenuation of the five templets is 2% to 28%. After 18 months’ exposure to the blazing sun, the most significant degree of attenuation reached 46%. The solar direct reflectance of coating templet of the same brand remained high as before after natural weathering with an initial high solar direct reflectance

Integration of Weather Avoidance and Traffic Separation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Consiglio, Maria C.; Chamberlain, James P.; Wilson, Sara R.

2011-01-01

This paper describes a dynamic convective weather avoidance concept that compensates for weather motion uncertainties; the integration of this weather avoidance concept into a prototype 4-D trajectory-based Airborne Separation Assurance System (ASAS) application; and test results from a batch (non-piloted) simulation of the integrated application with high traffic densities and a dynamic convective weather model. The weather model can simulate a number of pseudo-random hazardous weather patterns, such as slow- or fast-moving cells and opening or closing weather gaps, and also allows for modeling of onboard weather radar limitations in range and azimuth. The weather avoidance concept employs nested "core" and "avoid" polygons around convective weather cells, and the simulations assess the effectiveness of various avoid polygon sizes in the presence of different weather patterns, using traffic scenarios representing approximately two times the current traffic density in en-route airspace. Results from the simulation experiment show that the weather avoidance concept is effective over a wide range of weather patterns and cell speeds. Avoid polygons that are only 2-3 miles larger than their core polygons are sufficient to account for weather uncertainties in almost all cases, and traffic separation performance does not appear to degrade with the addition of weather polygon avoidance. Additional "lessons learned" from the batch simulation study are discussed in the paper, along with insights for improving the weather avoidance concept. Introduction

Development of a toolkit for cost-benefit analysis of specific winter maintenance practices, equipment and operations.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-11-01

The operators and maintainers of highway networks are facing increasing demands and : customer expectations regarding mobility and transportation safety during inclement weather, : while confronting budget and staffing constraints and environmental c...

Operations and Maintenance November Newsletter | Poster

Cancer.gov

Winter is once again upon us. Here are some informational tidbits to help you better understand what to expect during inclement weather events via FAQs, contact information, and a snow removal priority map, as well as some important safety tips. Enjoy!

COLD WEATHER PLUME STUDY

EPA Science Inventory

While many studies of power plant plume transport and transformation have been performed during the summer, few studies of these processes during the winter have been carried out. Accordingly, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the Electric Power Research Institute join...

Modeling activity patterns of wildlife using time-series analysis.

PubMed

Zhang, Jindong; Hull, Vanessa; Ouyang, Zhiyun; He, Liang; Connor, Thomas; Yang, Hongbo; Huang, Jinyan; Zhou, Shiqiang; Zhang, Zejun; Zhou, Caiquan; Zhang, Hemin; Liu, Jianguo

2017-04-01

The study of wildlife activity patterns is an effective approach to understanding fundamental ecological and evolutionary processes. However, traditional statistical approaches used to conduct quantitative analysis have thus far had limited success in revealing underlying mechanisms driving activity patterns. Here, we combine wavelet analysis, a type of frequency-based time-series analysis, with high-resolution activity data from accelerometers embedded in GPS collars to explore the effects of internal states (e.g., pregnancy) and external factors (e.g., seasonal dynamics of resources and weather) on activity patterns of the endangered giant panda ( Ailuropoda melanoleuca ). Giant pandas exhibited higher frequency cycles during the winter when resources (e.g., water and forage) were relatively poor, as well as during spring, which includes the giant panda's mating season. During the summer and autumn when resources were abundant, pandas exhibited a regular activity pattern with activity peaks every 24 hr. A pregnant individual showed distinct differences in her activity pattern from other giant pandas for several months following parturition. These results indicate that animals adjust activity cycles to adapt to seasonal variation of the resources and unique physiological periods. Wavelet coherency analysis also verified the synchronization of giant panda activity level with air temperature and solar radiation at the 24-hr band. Our study also shows that wavelet analysis is an effective tool for analyzing high-resolution activity pattern data and its relationship to internal and external states, an approach that has the potential to inform wildlife conservation and management across species.

The impact of climate change on winter road maintenance and traffic accidents in West Midlands, UK.

PubMed

Andersson, Anna K; Chapman, Lee

2011-01-01

Winter weather can be a significant cause of road traffic accidents. This paper uses UKCIP climate change scenarios and a temporal analogue to investigate the relationship between temperature and severe road accidents in the West Midlands, UK. This approach also allows quantification of the changes in the severity of the winter season over the next century in the region. It is demonstrated that the predicted reduction in the number of frost days should in turn reduce the number of road accidents caused due to slipperiness by approximately 50%. However, the paper concludes by warning against complacency in winter maintenance regimes. A warmer climate may result in budget cuts for highway maintenance which in turn may well reverse declining accident trends. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of the urban heat island on residents’ energy consumption: a case study of Qingdao

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Feng; Pang, Huaji; Guo, Wenhui

2018-02-01

This paper examines impact of urban heat island on residents’ energy consumption through comparative analyses of monthly air temperature data observed in Qingdao, Laoshan and Huangdao weather stations. The results show effect of urban heat island is close related with urbanization speed. Recently, effects of urban heat island of Laoshan and Huangdao exceed that of Qingdao, consistent with rapid urbanization in Laoshan and Huangdao. Enhanced effect of urban heat island induces surface air temperature to rise up, further increase electricity energy consumption for air conditioning use in summer and reduce coal consumption for residents heating in winter. Comparing change of residents’ energy consumption in summer and winter, increments in summer are less than reduction in winter. This implicates effect of urban heat island is more obvious in winter than in summer.

Winter temperatures over the Korean Peninsula and East Asia: development of a new index and its application to seasonal forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Seon Tae; Sohn, Soo-Jin; Kug, Jong-Seong

2017-09-01

This study proposes a new index for monitoring and predicting winter temperatures of the Korean Peninsula based on the dominant atmospheric winter teleconnection patterns. The utilization of this index is further extended to the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) index because the new index is found to well represent the main feature of the EAWM circulation. Among the teleconnection patterns, the East Atlantic (EA) and Western Pacific (WP) patterns are found to be most strongly correlated with winter temperatures via their partial association with changes in sea level pressure (SLP) around the Korean Peninsula, i.e., the EA and WP patterns are associated with SLP variation over the Siberian High region and the Kuroshio extension region to the east of Japan, respectively. On the basis of this relationship, the two regions representing the northwest-to-southeast SLP gradients are determined to define the new index. It is found that the new index can represent the Korean winter temperatures consistently well regardless of their considerable decadal changes. When compared with the existing SLP-based EAWM indices, the new index shows the best performance in delineating winter air temperatures, not only in the Korean Peninsula but also in the entire East Asian region. We also assess the prediction skill of the new index with seasonal coupled forecast models of the APEC Climate Center of Korea and its capability to predict winter temperatures. This assessment shows that the new index has potential for operationally predicting and monitoring winter temperatures in Korea and the whole of East Asia.

VHF downline communication system for SLAR data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schertler, R. J.; Chase, T. L.; Mueller, R. A.; Kramarchuk, I.; Jirberg, R. J.; Gedney, R. T.

1979-01-01

A real time VHF downlink communication system is described for transmitting side-looking airborne radar (SLAR) data directly from an aircraft to a portable ground/shipboard receiving station. Use of this receiving station aboard the U.S. Coast Guard icebreaker Mackinaw for generating real-time photographic quality radar images is discussed. The system was developed and demonstrated in conjunction with the U.S Coast Guard and NOAA National Weather Service as part of the Project Icewarn all weather ice information system for the Great Lakes Winter Navigation Program.

Nutritional condition of Pacific Black Brant wintering at the extremes of their range

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mason, D.D.; Barboza, P.S.; Ward, D.H.

2006-01-01

Endogenous stores of energy allow birds to survive periods of severe weather and food shortage during winter. We documented changes in lipid, protein, moisture, and ash in body tissues of adult female Pacific Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) and modeled the energetic costs of wintering. Birds were collected at the extremes of their winter range, in Alaska and Baja California, Mexico. Body lipids decreased over winter for birds in Alaska but increased for those in Baja California. Conversely, body protein increased over winter for Brant in Alaska and remained stable for birds in Baja California. Lipid stores likely fuel migration for Brant wintering in Baja California and ensure winter survival for those in Alaska. Increases in body protein may support earlier reproduction for Brant in Alaska. Predicted energy demands were similar between sites during late winter but avenues of expenditure were different. Birds in Baja California spent more energy on lipid synthesis while those in Alaska incurred higher thermoregulatory costs. Estimated daily intake rates of eelgrass were similar between sites in early winter; however, feeding time was more constrained in Alaska because of high tides and short photoperiods. Despite differences in energetic costs and foraging time, Brant wintering at both sites appeared to be in good condition. We suggest that wintering in Alaska may be more advantageous than long-distance migration if winter survival is similar between sites and constraints on foraging time do not impair body condition. ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2006.

Geographic patterns and dynamics of Alaskan climate interpolated from a sparse station record

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fleming, Michael D.; Chapin, F. Stuart; Cramer, W.; Hufford, Gary L.; Serreze, Mark C.

2000-01-01

Data from a sparse network of climate stations in Alaska were interpolated to provide 1-km resolution maps of mean monthly temperature and precipitation-variables that are required at high spatial resolution for input into regional models of ecological processes and resource management. The interpolation model is based on thin-plate smoothing splines, which uses the spatial data along with a digital elevation model to incorporate local topography. The model provides maps that are consistent with regional climatology and with patterns recognized by experienced weather forecasters. The broad patterns of Alaskan climate are well represented and include latitudinal and altitudinal trends in temperature and precipitation and gradients in continentality. Variations within these broad patterns reflect both the weakening and reduction in frequency of low-pressure centres in their eastward movement across southern Alaska during the summer, and the shift of the storm tracks into central and northern Alaska in late summer. Not surprisingly, apparent artifacts of the interpolated climate occur primarily in regions with few or no stations. The interpolation model did not accurately represent low-level winter temperature inversions that occur within large valleys and basins. Along with well-recognized climate patterns, the model captures local topographic effects that would not be depicted using standard interpolation techniques. This suggests that similar procedures could be used to generate high-resolution maps for other high-latitude regions with a sparse density of data.

The use of fair-weather cases from the ACT-America Summer 2016 field campaign to better constrain regional biogenic CO2 surface fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaudet, B. J.; Davis, K. J.; DiGangi, J. P.; Feng, S.; Hoffman, K.; Jacobson, A. R.; Lauvaux, T.; McGill, M. J.; Miles, N.; Pal, S.; Pauly, R.; Richardson, S.

2017-12-01

The Atmospheric Carbon and Transport - America (ACT-America) study is a multi-year NASA-funded project designed to increase our understanding of regional-scale greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes over North America through aircraft, satellite, and tower-based observations. This is being accomplished through a series of field campaigns that cover three focus regions (Mid-Atlantic, Gulf Coast, and Midwest), and all four seasons (summer, winter, fall, and spring), as well as a variety of meteorological conditions. While constraints on GHG fluxes can be derived on the global scale (through remote-site concentration measurements and global flux inversion models) and the local scale (through eddy-covariance flux tower measurements), observational constraints on the intermediate scales are not as readily available. Biogenic CO2 fluxes are particularly challenging because of their strong seasonal and diurnal cycles and large spatial variability. During the summer 2016 ACT field campaign, fair weather days were targeted for special flight patterns designed to estimate surface fluxes at scales on the order of 105 km2 using a modified mass-balance approach. For some onshore flow cases in the Gulf Coast, atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) flight transects were performed both inland and offshore when it could be reasonably inferred that the homogeneous Gulf air provided the background GHG field for the inland transect. On other days, two-day flight sequences were performed, where the second-day location of the flight patterns was designed to encompass the air mass that was sampled on the first day. With these flight patterns, the average regional flux can be estimated from the ABL CO2 concentration change. Direct measurements of ABL depth from both aircraft profiles and high-resolution airborne lidar will be used, while winds and free-tropospheric CO2 can be determined from model output and in situ aircraft observations. Here we will present examples of this flux estimation for both Gulf-inflow and two-day fair-weather pattern cases from the summer 2016 ACT-America field campaign. We will also examine processes that lead to uncertainty in these estimates, and quantify these uncertainties. Implications for the ability of this regional flux determination to constrain the existing suite of GHG flux estimates will be discussed.

Decadal variability in the Northern Hemisphere winter circulation: Role of internal and external drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maliniemi, V.; Asikainen, T.; Mursula, K.

2017-12-01

Northern Hemisphere winter circulation is known to be affected by both internal and external (solar-related) forcings. Earlier studies have shown ENSO and volcanic activity to produce negative and positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) type responses, respectively. In addition, recent studies have shown a positive NAO response related to both geomagnetic activity (proxy for solar wind driven particle precipitation) and sunspot activity (proxy for solar irradiance). These solar-related signals have been suggested to be due to the changes in the polar vortex. Here the relative role of these four internal and external drivers on wintertime circulation in the Northern Hemisphere is studied. The phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is used to study the driver responses for different stratospheric conditions. Moreover, the effects are separated for early (Dec/Jan) and late (Feb/Mar) winter. The global pattern of ENSO is very similar (negative NAO) otherwise, but in early winter and westerly QBO the pattern is changed in the Atlantic sector to a weakly positive NAO. The positive NAO pattern due to volcanic activity is more pronounced for westerly QBO in both early and late winter. The positive NAO pattern produced by geomagnetic activity is obtained during easterly QBO phase in both early and late winter. Sunspot related NAO response in late winter is also strongly modulated by the QBO phase. These results imply that the stratospheric conditions expressed by QBO significantly modulate the way the internal and external drivers affect the Northern Hemisphere winter climate.

Short winters threaten temperate fish populations

PubMed Central

Farmer, Troy M.; Marschall, Elizabeth A.; Dabrowski, Konrad; Ludsin, Stuart A.

2015-01-01

Although climate warming is expected to benefit temperate ectotherms by lengthening the summer growing season, declines in reproductive success following short, warm winters may counter such positive effects. Here we present long-term (1973–2010) field patterns for Lake Erie yellow perch, Perca flavescens, which show that failed annual recruitment events followed short, warm winters. Subsequent laboratory experimentation and field investigations revealed how reduced reproductive success following short, warm winters underlie these observed field patterns. Following short winters, females spawn at warmer temperatures and produce smaller eggs that both hatch at lower rates and produce smaller larvae than females exposed to long winters. Our research suggests that continued climate warming can lead to unanticipated, negative effects on temperate fish populations. PMID:26173734

Determining optimal clothing ensembles based on weather forecasts, with particular reference to outdoor winter military activities.

PubMed

Morabito, Marco; Pavlinic, Daniela Z; Crisci, Alfonso; Capecchi, Valerio; Orlandini, Simone; Mekjavic, Igor B

2011-07-01

Military and civil defense personnel are often involved in complex activities in a variety of outdoor environments. The choice of appropriate clothing ensembles represents an important strategy to establish the success of a military mission. The main aim of this study was to compare the known clothing insulation of the garment ensembles worn by soldiers during two winter outdoor field trials (hike and guard duty) with the estimated optimal clothing thermal insulations recommended to maintain thermoneutrality, assessed by using two different biometeorological procedures. The overall aim was to assess the applicability of such biometeorological procedures to weather forecast systems, thereby developing a comprehensive biometeorological tool for military operational forecast purposes. Military trials were carried out during winter 2006 in Pokljuka (Slovenia) by Slovene Armed Forces personnel. Gastrointestinal temperature, heart rate and environmental parameters were measured with portable data acquisition systems. The thermal characteristics of the clothing ensembles worn by the soldiers, namely thermal resistance, were determined with a sweating thermal manikin. Results showed that the clothing ensemble worn by the military was appropriate during guard duty but generally inappropriate during the hike. A general under-estimation of the biometeorological forecast model in predicting the optimal clothing insulation value was observed and an additional post-processing calibration might further improve forecast accuracy. This study represents the first step in the development of a comprehensive personalized biometeorological forecast system aimed at improving recommendations regarding the optimal thermal insulation of military garment ensembles for winter activities.

Effects of fat reserves on annual apparent survival of blackbirds Turdus merula

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, M.W.; Aradis, A.; Landucci, G.

2003-01-01

1. Fat reserves are stored energy that may help birds survive periods of harsh winter weather. This hypothesis predicts that annual apparent survival is higher for birds with large fat reserves than for birds with few or no fat reserves in winter. 2. Blackbirds (Turdus merula Linnaeus) were ringed in central Italy from 16 November to 20 February during 1990-2001. Fat scores were recorded for each bird. We used these capture-mark-recapture data for 1703 blackbirds to estimate the effect of large fat reserves on annual apparent survival, while controlling for transients, using computer programs surviv and mark. Probability of birds retaining large fat reserves, or retaining few fat reserves, over 2 successive years was also estimated. 3. Birds with large fat reserves did not have higher estimated annual apparent survival than birds with few fat reserves, inconsistent with our prediction. No effects of age, sex or year were detected on annual apparent survival. Birds with few fat reserves in any given year tended to have few fat reserves the following year. Birds with large fat reserves in any given year were unlikely to have large fat reserves the next year. 4. Large fat reserves may not increase annual survival of blackbirds wintering in central Italy. Winter weather in our study area may be too mild to effect survival. Alternatively, increased predation risk associated with large fat reserves may counteract any benefits of reduced starvation risk.

An evaluation of climate/mortality relationships in large U.S. cities and the possible impacts of a climate change.

PubMed Central

Kalkstein, L S; Greene, J S

1997-01-01

A new air mass-based synoptic procedure is used to evaluate climate/mortality relationships as they presently exist and to estimate how a predicted global warming might alter these values. Forty-four large U.S. cities with metropolitan areas exceeding 1 million in population are analyzed. Sharp increases in mortality are noted in summer for most cities in the East and Midwest when two particular air masses are present. A very warm air mass of maritime origin is most important in the eastern United States, which when present can increase daily mortality by as many as 30 deaths in large cities. A hot, dry air mass is important in many cities, and, although rare in the East, can increase daily mortality by up to 50 deaths. Cities in the South and Southwest show lesser weather/mortality relationships in summer. During winter, air mass-induced increases in mortality are considerably less than in summer. Although daily winter mortality is usually higher than summer, the causes of death that are responsible for most winter mortality do not vary much with temperature. Using models that estimate climate change for the years 2020 and 2050, it is estimated that summer mortality will increase dramatically and winter mortality will decrease slightly, even if people acclimatize to the increased warmth. Thus, a sizable net increase in weather-related mortality is estimated if the climate warms as the models predict. PMID:9074886

Precipitation isotopes link regional climate patterns to water supply in a tropical mountain forest, eastern Puerto Rico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scholl, Martha A.; Murphy, Sheila F.

2014-01-01

Like many mountainous areas in the tropics, watersheds in the Luquillo Mountains of eastern Puerto Rico have abundant rainfall and stream discharge and provide much of the water supply for the densely populated metropolitan areas nearby. Projected changes in regional temperature and atmospheric dynamics as a result of global warming suggest that water availability will be affected by changes in rainfall patterns. It is essential to understand the relative importance of different weather systems to water supply to determine how changes in rainfall patterns, interacting with geology and vegetation, will affect the water balance. To help determine the links between climate and water availability, stable isotope signatures of precipitation from different weather systems were established to identify those that are most important in maintaining streamflow and groundwater recharge. Precipitation stable isotope values in the Luquillo Mountains had a large range, from fog/cloud water with δ2H, δ18O values as high as +12 ‰, −0.73 ‰ to tropical storm rain with values as low as −127 ‰, −16.8 ‰. Temporal isotope values exhibit a reverse seasonality from those observed in higher latitude continental watersheds, with higher isotopic values in the winter and lower values in the summer. Despite the higher volume of convective and low-pressure system rainfall, stable isotope analyses indicated that under the current rainfall regime, frequent trade -wind orographic showers contribute much of the groundwater recharge and stream base flow. Analysis of rain events using 20 years of 15 -minute resolution data at a mountain station (643 m) showed an increasing trend in rainfall amount, in agreement with increased precipitable water in the atmosphere, but differing from climate model projections of drying in the region. The mean intensity of rain events also showed an increasing trend. The determination of recharge sources from stable isotope tracers indicates that water supply will be affected if regional atmospheric dynamics change trade- wind orographic rainfall patterns in the Caribbean.

Winter warming from large volcanic eruptions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robock, Alan; Mao, Jianping

1992-01-01

An examination of the Northern Hemisphere winter surface temperature patterns after the 12 largest volcanic eruptions from 1883-1992 shows warming over Eurasia and North America and cooling over the Middle East which are significant at the 95-percent level. This pattern is found in the first winter after tropical eruptions, in the first or second winter after midlatitude eruptions, and in the second winter after high latitude eruptions. The effects are independent of the hemisphere of the volcanoes. An enhanced zonal wind driven by heating of the tropical stratosphere by the volcanic aerosols is responsible for the regions of warming, while the cooling is caused by blocking of incoming sunlight.

Winter warming from large volcanic eruptions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robock, Alan; Mao, Jianping

1992-01-01

An examination of the Northern Hemisphere winter surface temperature patterns after the 12 largest volcanic eruptions from 1883-1992 shows warming over Eurasia and North America and cooling over the Middle East which are significant at the 95 percent level. This pattern is found in the first winter after tropical eruptions, in the first or second winter after midlatitude eruptions, and in the second winter after high latitude eruptions. The effects are independent of the hemisphere of the volcanoes. An enhanced zonal wind driven by heating of the tropical stratosphere by the volcanic aerosols is responsible for the regions of warming, while the cooling is caused by blocking of incoming sunlight.

GUIDELINES ON SELECTION AND USE OF SNOW AND ICE CONTROL MATERIALS.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-09-19

This document presents guidelines for the selection of snow and ice control materials for winter weather roadway maintenance applications in Texas. The purpose of this document is to provide Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) roadway maintena...

Effects of urban density on carbon dioxide exchanges: Observations of dense urban, suburban and woodland areas of southern England.

PubMed

Ward, H C; Kotthaus, S; Grimmond, C S B; Bjorkegren, A; Wilkinson, M; Morrison, W T J; Evans, J G; Morison, J I L; Iamarino, M

2015-03-01

Anthropogenic and biogenic controls on the surface-atmosphere exchange of CO2 are explored for three different environments. Similarities are seen between suburban and woodland sites during summer, when photosynthesis and respiration determine the diurnal pattern of the CO2 flux. In winter, emissions from human activities dominate urban and suburban fluxes; building emissions increase during cold weather, while traffic is a major component of CO2 emissions all year round. Observed CO2 fluxes reflect diurnal traffic patterns (busy throughout the day (urban); rush-hour peaks (suburban)) and vary between working days and non-working days, except at the woodland site. Suburban vegetation offsets some anthropogenic emissions, but 24-h CO2 fluxes are usually positive even during summer. Observations are compared to estimated emissions from simple models and inventories. Annual CO2 exchanges are significantly different between sites, demonstrating the impacts of increasing urban density (and decreasing vegetation fraction) on the CO2 flux to the atmosphere. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Drought and Snow: Analysis of Drivers, Processes and Impacts of Streamflow Droughts in Snow-Dominated Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Loon, Anne; Laaha, Gregor; Van Lanen, Henny; Parajka, Juraj; Fleig, Anne; Ploum, Stefan

2016-04-01

Around the world, drought events with severe socio-economic impacts seem to have a link with winter snowpack. That is the case for the current California drought, but analysing historical archives and drought impact databases for the US and Europe we found many impacts that can be attributed to snowpack anomalies. Agriculture and electricity production (hydropower) were found to be the sectors that are most affected by drought related to snow. In this study, we investigated the processes underlying hydrological drought in snow-dominated regions. We found that drought drivers are different in different regions. In Norway, more than 90% of spring streamflow droughts were preceded by below-average winter precipitation, while both winter air temperature and spring weather were indifferent. In Austria, however, spring streamflow droughts could only be explained by a combination of factors. For most events, winter and spring air temperatures were above average (70% and 65% of events, respectively), and winter and spring precipitation was below average (75% and 80%). Because snow storage results from complex interactions between precipitation and temperature and these variables vary strongly with altitude, snow-related drought drivers have a large spatial variability. The weather input is subsequently modified by land properties. Multiple linear regression between drought severity variables and a large number of catchment characteristics for 44 catchments in Austria showed that storage influences both drought duration and deficit volume. The seasonal storage of water in snow and glaciers was found to be a statistically important variable explaining streamflow drought deficit. Our drought impact analysis in Europe also showed that 40% of the selected drought impacts was caused by a combination of snow-related and other drought types. For example, the combination of a winter drought with a preceding or subsequent summer drought was reported to have a large effect on reservoir levels and, consequently, on drinking water and electricity production. Snow storage therefore, is an important factor to consider in drought monitoring, prediction and management.

Drought and Snow: Analysis of Drivers, Processes and Impacts of Streamflow Droughts in Snow-Dominated Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Loon, A.; Laaha, G.; Van Lanen, H.; Parajka, J.; Fleig, A. K.; Ploum, S.

2015-12-01

Around the world, drought events with severe socio-economic impacts seem to have a link with winter snowpack. That is the case for the current California drought, but analysing historical archives and drought impact databases for the US and Europe we found many impacts that can be attributed to snowpack anomalies. Agriculture and electricity production (hydropower) were found to be the sectors that are most affected by drought related to snow. In this study, we investigated the processes underlying hydrological drought in snow-dominated regions. We found that drought drivers are different in different regions. In Norway, more than 90% of spring streamflow droughts were preceded by below-average winter precipitation, while both winter air temperature and spring weather were indifferent. In Austria, however, spring streamflow droughts could only be explained by a combination of factors. For most events, winter and spring air temperatures were above average (70% and 65% of events, respectively), and winter and spring precipitation was below average (75% and 80%). Because snow storage results from complex interactions between precipitation and temperature and these variables vary strongly with altitude, snow-related drought drivers have a large spatial variability. The weather input is subsequently modified by land properties. Multiple linear regression between drought severity variables and a large number of catchment characteristics for 44 catchments in Austria showed that storage influences both drought duration and deficit volume. The seasonal storage of water in snow and glaciers was found to be a statistically important variable explaining streamflow drought deficit. Our drought impact analysis in Europe also showed that 40% of the selected drought impacts was caused by a combination of snow-related and other drought types. For example, the combination of a winter drought with a preceding or subsequent summer drought was reported to have a large effect on reservoir levels and, consequently, on drinking water and electricity production. Snow storage therefore, is an important factor to consider in drought monitoring, prediction and management.

KSC-06pd1283

NASA Image and Video Library

2006-06-28

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - A Rawinsonde weather balloon sails into the sky after release from the Cape Canaveral forecast facility in Florida. The release was planned as part of a media tour prior to the launch of Space Shuttle Discovery on mission STS-121 July 1. Rawinsonde balloons are GPS-tracked and can collect such data as atmospheric pressure, temperature, humidity and wind speed and direction up to 100,000 feet. At the facility, which is operated by the U.S. Air Force 45th Weather Squadron, media saw the tools used by the weather team to create the forecast for launch day. They received a briefing on how the launch weather forecast is developed by Shuttle Weather Officer Kathy Winters and met the forecasters for the space shuttle and the expendable launch vehicles. Also participating were members of the Applied Meteorology Unit who provide special expertise to the forecasters by analyzing and interpreting unusual or inconsistent weather data. The media were able to see the release of the Rawinsonde weather balloon carrying instruments aloft to be used as part of developing the forecast. Photo credit: NASA/George Shelton

KSC-06pd1281

NASA Image and Video Library

2006-06-28

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - At the Cape Canaveral forecast facility in Florida, a worker carries a Rawinsonde weather balloon outside for release. Rawinsonde balloons are GPS-tracked and can collect such data as atmospheric pressure, temperature, humidity and wind speed and direction up to 100,000 feet. The release was planned as part of a media tour prior to the launch of Space Shuttle Discovery on mission STS-121 July 1. At the facility, which is operated by the U.S. Air Force 45th Weather Squadron, media saw the tools used by the weather team to create the forecast for launch day. They received a briefing on how the launch weather forecast is developed by Shuttle Weather Officer Kathy Winters and met the forecasters for the space shuttle and the expendable launch vehicles. Also participating were members of the Applied Meteorology Unit who provide special expertise to the forecasters by analyzing and interpreting unusual or inconsistent weather data. The media were able to see the release of the Rawinsonde weather balloon carrying instruments aloft to be used as part of developing the forecast. Photo credit: NASA/George Shelton

KSC-06pd1282

NASA Image and Video Library

2006-06-28

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - At the Cape Canaveral forecast facility in Florida, a worker releases a Rawinsonde weather balloon outside for release. Rawinsonde balloons are GPS-tracked and can collect such data as atmospheric pressure, temperature, humidity and wind speed and direction up to 100,000 feet. The release was planned as part of a media tour prior to the launch of Space Shuttle Discovery on mission STS-121 July 1. At the facility, which is operated by the U.S. Air Force 45th Weather Squadron, media saw the tools used by the weather team to create the forecast for launch day. They received a briefing on how the launch weather forecast is developed by Shuttle Weather Officer Kathy Winters and met the forecasters for the space shuttle and the expendable launch vehicles. Also participating were members of the Applied Meteorology Unit who provide special expertise to the forecasters by analyzing and interpreting unusual or inconsistent weather data. The media were able to see the release of the Rawinsonde weather balloon carrying instruments aloft to be used as part of developing the forecast. Photo credit: NASA/George Shelton

Influence of solar variability on the occurrence of central European weather types from 1763 to 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwander, Mikhaël; Rohrer, Marco; Brönnimann, Stefan; Malik, Abdul

2017-09-01

The impact of solar variability on weather and climate in central Europe is still not well understood. In this paper we use a new time series of daily weather types to analyse the influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the tropospheric weather of central Europe. We employ a novel, daily weather type classification over the period 1763-2009 and investigate the occurrence frequency of weather types under low, moderate, and high solar activity level. Results show a tendency towards fewer days with westerly and west-southwesterly flow over central Europe under low solar activity. In parallel, the occurrence of northerly and easterly types increases. For the 1958-2009 period, a more detailed view can be gained from reanalysis data. Mean sea level pressure composites under low solar activity also show a reduced zonal flow, with an increase of the mean blocking frequency between Iceland and Scandinavia. Weather types and reanalysis data show that the 11-year solar cycle influences the late winter atmospheric circulation over central Europe with colder (warmer) conditions under low (high) solar activity.

Comparison of regional and seasonal changes and trends in daily surface temperature extremes over India and its subregions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dimri, A. P.

2018-04-01

Regional changes in surface meteorological variables are one of the key issues affecting the Indian subcontinent especially in recent decades. These changes impact agriculture, health, water, etc., hence important to assess and investigate these changes. The Indian subcontinent is characterized by heterogeneous temperature regimes at regional and seasonal scales. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) observations are limited to recent decades as far as its spatial distribution is concerned. In particular, over Hilly region, these observations are sporadic. Due to variable topography and heterogeneous land use/land cover, it is complex to substantiate impacts. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim (ERA-I) reanalysis not only covers a larger spatial domain but also provides a greater number of inputs than IMD. This study used ERA-I in conjunction with IMD gridded data to provide a comparative assessment of changing temperature patterns over India and its subregions at both regional and seasonal scales. Warming patterns are observed in both ERA-I and IMD data sets. Cold nights decrease during winter; warm days increase and warm spell duration increased during winter could become a cause of concern for society, agriculture, socio-economic reasons, and health. Increasing warm days over the hilly regions may affect the corresponding snow cover and thus river hydrology and glaciological dynamics. Such changes during monsoon are slower, which could be attributed to moisture availability to dampen the temperature changes. On investigation and comparison thereon, the present study provisions usages of ERA-I-based indices for various impact and adaptation studies.

High-frequency and meso-scale winter sea-ice variability in the Southern Ocean in a high-resolution global ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stössel, Achim; von Storch, Jin-Song; Notz, Dirk; Haak, Helmuth; Gerdes, Rüdiger

2018-03-01

This study is on high-frequency temporal variability (HFV) and meso-scale spatial variability (MSV) of winter sea-ice drift in the Southern Ocean simulated with a global high-resolution (0.1°) sea ice-ocean model. Hourly model output is used to distinguish MSV characteristics via patterns of mean kinetic energy (MKE) and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) of ice drift, surface currents, and wind stress, and HFV characteristics via time series of raw variables and correlations. We find that (1) along the ice edge, the MSV of ice drift coincides with that of surface currents, in particular such due to ocean eddies; (2) along the coast, the MKE of ice drift is substantially larger than its TKE and coincides with the MKE of wind stress; (3) in the interior of the ice pack, the TKE of ice drift is larger than its MKE, mostly following the TKE pattern of wind stress; (4) the HFV of ice drift is dominated by weather events, and, in the absence of tidal currents, locally and to a much smaller degree by inertial oscillations; (5) along the ice edge, the curl of the ice drift is highly correlated with that of surface currents, mostly reflecting the impact of ocean eddies. Where ocean eddies occur and the ice is relatively thin, ice velocity is characterized by enhanced relative vorticity, largely matching that of surface currents. Along the ice edge, ocean eddies produce distinct ice filaments, the realism of which is largely confirmed by high-resolution satellite passive-microwave data.

Wintering ecology of adult North American ospreys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Washburn, Brian E.; Martell, Mark S.; Bierregaard, Richard O.; Henny, Charles J.; Dorr, Brian S.; Olexa, Thomas J.

2014-01-01

North American Ospreys (Pandion haliaetus) typically migrate long distances to their wintering grounds in the tropics. Beyond the general distribution of their wintering range (i.e., the Caribbean, South America, and Central America), very little is known about the wintering ecology of these birds. We used satellite telemetry to determine the duration of wintering period, to examine the characteristics of wintering areas used by Ospreys, and to quantify space use and activity patterns of wintering Ospreys. Adult Ospreys migrated to wintering sites and exhibited high wintering site fidelity among years. Overall, Ospreys wintered on river systems (50.6%) more than on lakes (19.0%), and use of coastal areas was (30.4%) intermediate. Ospreys remained on their wintering grounds for an average of 154 d for males and 167 d for females. Locations of wintering Ospreys obtained via GPS-capable satellite telemetry suggest these birds move infrequently and their movements are very localized (i.e., 2 and 1.4 km2, respectively. Overall, our findings suggest wintering adult North American Ospreys are very sedentary, demonstrating a pattern of limited daily movements and high fidelity to a few select locations (presumably roosts). We suggest this wintering strategy might be effective for reducing the risk of mortality and maximizing energy conservation.

Jamaica Bay studies III: Abiotic determinants of distribution and abundance of gulls ( Larus)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burger, Joanna

1983-02-01

The distribution and abundance of gulls were examined at Jamaica Bay Wildlife Refuge (New York) from 31 May 1978 to 31 May 1979. Gulls were found to be affected by tidal, temporal and weather-related factors. The distribution of gulls was affected primarily by tidal factors on the bay, and by temporal (seasonal, circadian) and weather-related factors on the freshwater ponds. The most important weather-related factors were temperature, wind velocity and wind direction. Herring ( L. argentatus), great black-backed ( L. fuscus) and ring-billed gulls ( L. delawarensis) fed on the bay at low tides, and used the ponds at high tide. Laughing gulls ( L. atricilla) fed on the bay at low tide and on rising tides. Herring and great black-backed gulls were present all year, but were most abundant in the winter, ring-billed gulls were abundant in spring and early fall, and laughing gulls were present in the summer following the breeding season but were absent in winter. Gulls used the ponds during high velocity, north winds, when they usually rested or preened. Multiple regression models were used to determine the factors explaining the variability in the numbers of gulls. Temporal variables were important contributors to accounting for the variability in the numbers of great black-backed and herring gulls only; tidal variables were significant for great black-backed and herring gulls on the bay, and for ring-billed and laughing gulls on all areas; and weather variables were significant for all species.

The De Winter ECG pattern: morphology and accuracy for diagnosing acute coronary occlusion: systematic review.

PubMed

Morris, Niall P; Body, Richard

2017-08-01

The De Winter ECG pattern has been reported to indicate acute left anterior descending coronary artery occlusion and is often considered to be an 'ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) equivalent'. We aimed to investigate the morphology of the 'De Winter ECG pattern' and evaluate the test characteristics of the De Winter pattern for the diagnosis of acute coronary occlusion. We identified papers through the Medline, EMBASE and COCHRANE databases and screened for bias using QUADAS-2. First, measurements were recorded from every ECG reported in the literature and aggregated. Second, diagnostic accuracy data from eligible cohort studies were extracted. The primary outcome was defined as at least 70% angiographic stenosis of a major epicardial vessel. Thirteen papers reported data relevant to question 1 and three papers reported data relevant to question 2. All ECGs showed maximal up-sloping ST depression in lead V3 with a median amplitude of 0.3 mV (interquartile range: 0.2-4 mV). T-wave height peaked in lead V3 with a median amplitude 0.9 mV (interquartile range: 0.8-1.1 mV). The De Winter pattern had positive predictive values of 95.2% (95% confidence interval: 76.2-99.9%), 100% (69.2-100.0%) and 100% (51.7-100%) in the three respective diagnostic studies. There is limited evidence that the De Winter ECG pattern is a 'STEMI equivalent'. The available data suggest that the pattern has high positive predictive value for acute occlusion. Further research is required to evaluate specificity and to determine whether rapid revascularization improves mortality.

Satellite Video Shows Movement of Major U.S. Winter Storm

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-02-12

A new NASA video of NOAA's GOES satellite imagery shows three days of movement of the massive winter storm that stretches from the southern U.S. to the northeast. Visible and infrared imagery from NOAA's GOES-East or GOES-13 satellite from Feb. 10 at 1815 UTC/1:15 p.m. EST to Feb. 12 to 1845 UTC/1:45 p.m. EST were compiled into a video made by NASA/NOAA's GOES Project at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. In the video, viewers can see the development and movement of the clouds associated with the progression of the frontal system and related low pressure areas that make up the massive storm. The video also shows the snow covered ground over the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley that stretches to northern New England. The clouds and fallen snow data from NOAA's GOES-East satellite were overlaid on a true-color image of land and ocean created by data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer or MODIS instrument that flies aboard NASA's Aqua and Terra satellites. On February 12 at 10 a.m. EST, NOAA's National Weather Service or NWS continued to issue watches and warnings from Texas to New England. Specifically, NWS cited Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories were in effect from eastern Texas eastward across the interior section of southeastern U.S. states and across much of the eastern seaboard including the Appalachians. Winter storm watches are in effect for portions of northern New England as well as along the western slopes of northern and central Appalachians. For updates on local forecasts, watches and warnings, visit NOAA's www.weather.gov webpage. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center or WPC noted the storm is expected to bring "freezing rain spreading into the Carolinas, significant snow accumulations are expected in the interior Mid-Atlantic states tonight into Thursday and ice storm warnings and freezing rain advisories are in effect across much of central Georgia. GOES satellites provide the kind of continuous monitoring necessary for intensive data analysis. Geostationary describes an orbit in which a satellite is always in the same position with respect to the rotating Earth. This allows GOES to hover continuously over one position on Earth's surface, appearing stationary. As a result, GOES provide a constant vigil for the atmospheric "triggers" for severe weather conditions such as tornadoes, flash floods, hail storms and hurricanes. For updated information about the storm system, visit NOAA's WPC website; www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ For more information about GOES satellites, visit: www.goes.noaa.gov/ or goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/ Rob Gutro NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center Credit: NOAA/NASA GOES Project NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Large-Scale Traveling Weather Systems in Mars’ Southern Extratropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Kahre, Melinda A.

2017-10-01

Between late fall and early spring, Mars’ middle- and high-latitude atmosphere supports strong mean equator-to-pole temperature contrasts and an accompanying mean westerly polar vortex. Observations from both the MGS Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and the MRO Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) indicate that a mean baroclinicity-barotropicity supports intense, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic-period waves). Such extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation as they serve as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and generalized scalar/tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water-vapor and ice clouds). The character of such traveling extratropical synoptic disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a moderately high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This Mars GCM imposes interactively-lifted and radiatively-active dust based on a threshold value of the surface stress. The model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e., globally averaged, a dustier atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). Compared to the northern-hemisphere counterparts, the southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e., east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather are investigated, in addition to large-scale up-slope/down-slope flows and the diurnal cycle. A southern storm zone in late winter and early spring presents in the western hemisphere via orographic influences from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate dynamical differences amongst the simulations and these are presented.

Large-Scale Traveling Weather Systems in Mars Southern Extratropics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Kahre, Melinda A.

2017-01-01

Between late fall and early spring, Mars' middle- and high-latitude atmosphere supports strong mean equator-to-pole temperature contrasts and an accompanying mean westerly polar vortex. Observations from both the MGS Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and the MRO Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) indicate that a mean baroclinicity-barotropicity supports intense, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic-period waves). Such extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation as they serve as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and generalized scalar/tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water-vapor and ice clouds). The character of such traveling extratropical synoptic disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a moderately high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This Mars GCM imposes interactively-lifted and radiatively-active dust based on a threshold value of the surface stress. The model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e., globally averaged, a dustier atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). Compared to the northern-hemisphere counterparts, the southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e., east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather are investigated, in addition to large-scale up-slope/down-slope flows and the diurnal cycle. A southern storm zone in late winter and early spring presents in the western hemisphere via orographic influences from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate dynamical differences amongst the simulations and these are presented.

Influence of Land Use, Discharge and Impervious Surfaces on the Geochemistry of the Anacostia River, Washington DC.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacAvoy, S. E.; De Filippis, N.

2016-12-01

Challenges facing urban rivers include water stormwater runoff and changing water chemistry, not only from air and water pollution, but also from altered geology with the development of "urban karst" (concrete). The Anacostia River in Washington, D.C. has 75% of its watershed classified as urban or impervious, and is among the 10 most contaminated rivers in the USA. In addition to its relatively well-documented organic contamination problems, we hypothesize that concrete could be substantially altering its geochemistry. Here we report findings from 6 locations along the Anacostia River and its tributaries that indicate both seasonally elevated Na and Cl (becoming brackish, 2000-3000 mg/L Total Dissolved Solids, in a suburban creek), and elevated cations in low flow suburban tributaries. Concentrations of all major cations (Ca, Mg, K, Na) strongly, and positively, covaried (factor scores (FC) >0.88). However Ca/Sr ratios negatively covaried with major cations (FC -0.64). This suggests the weathering of low Sr minerals, such as those in concrete. In urbanized portions of the river, Ca/Sr was >200, which is a concrete weathering indicator in areas with silica mineral bedrock (Anacostia bedrock consists of Precambrian phyllits, sericite, chlorite, quartzite, slate and schist). Mean ± SE Sr was 0.13 ± 0.02 mg/L in the most urban area, but 0.37 ± 0.03 mg/L in the most suburban. This supports the hypothesis that the source of elevated cations in the urban areas is concrete weathering, not bedrock mineral weathering. Inorganic N was not correlated strongly with cations. Mean NO3- was highest at the most suburban site (1.8 ± 0.2 mg/L), but rose above 3 mg/L in some samples at all sites. Elevated NO3- did not appear to vary with season or discharge rate at time of sampling. NH4+ was generally lower than 1 mg/L but spiked to 3.4 mg/L at the most urban site. These data follow patterns expected for "urban stream syndrome". Suburban areas, with their relatively small streams, show greater winter salting effects than more urban areas down stream. Suburban areas also show higher NO3- (and occasionally higher NH4+) than urban areas except in winter. The geochemistry of highly urbanized systems may be significantly altered and understanding this effect will help in the development of plans for more effective watershed rehabilitation.

Wildfires, mountain pine beetle and large-scale climate in Northern North America.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macias Fauria, M.; Johnson, E. A.

2009-05-01

Research on the interactions between biosphere and atmosphere and ocean/atmosphere dynamics, concretely on the coupling between ecological processes and large-scale climate, is presented in two studies in Northern North America: the occurrence of large lightning wildfires and the forest area affected by mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae, MPB). In both cases, large-scale climatic patterns such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) operate as low and low and high frequency frameworks, respectively, that control the occurrence, duration and spatial correlation over large areas of key local weather variables which affect specific ecological processes. Warm PDO phases tend to produce persistent (more than 10 days long) positive mid-troposphere anomalies (blocking highs) over western Canada and Alaska. Likewise, positive (negative) AO configurations increase the frequency of blocking highs at mid (high) latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Under these conditions, lack of precipitation and prevailing warm air meridional flow rapidly dry fuel over large areas and increase fire hazard. The spatiotemporal patterns of occurrence of large lightning wildfire in Canada and Alaska for 1959-1999 were largely explained by the action and possible interaction of AO and PDO, the AO being more influential over Eastern Canada, the PDO over Western Canada and Alaska. Changes in the dynamics of the PDO are linked to the occurrence of cold winter temperatures in British Columbia (BC), Western Canada. Reduced frequency of cold events during warm PDO winters is consistent with a northward-displaced polar jet stream inhibiting the outflow of cold Arctic air over BC. Likewise, the AO influences the occurrence of winter cold spells in the area. PDO, and to a lesser degree AO, were strongly related to MPB synchrony in BC during 1959-2002, operating through the control of the frequency of extreme cold winter temperatures that affect MPB larvae survival. The onset of a warm PDO phase in 1976 1) increased (decreased) the area burnt by wildfire in the Canadian Boreal Forest (BC) by increasing (decreasing) the frequency of blocking highs in the area, and 2) favored MPB outbreaks in BC by reducing the occurrence of extremely low winter temperatures. Likewise, the exceptionally high and persistent AO values of the late 1980s and 1990s increased area burned in Eastern Canada and MPB activity in the southern and northern parts of BC. A possible recent PDO phase shift may largely reverse these trends.

Mobility and safety impacts of winter storm events in a freeway environment.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-02-01

Several factors influence a driver's decision to travel, choice of vehicle speed, and the safety of a particular trip. These factors include, among others, the trip purpose, time of day, traffic volumes, weather and roadway conditions, and the range ...

All-wheel drive and winter-weather safety.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-03-01

It is frequently stated that people living in northern states, the so called Snowbelt of the United : States, benefit with respect to safety from driving all-wheel or four-wheel drive vehicles as : opposed to front or rear-wheel drive only. This stud...

Evaluation of the benefits of integrated winter road weather information in North Dakota

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2004-03-10

As part of the Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) Integration Program as authorized in the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century (TEA-21), the U.S. Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) funded the North Dakota Department of Transportat...

The History of Winter: A Professional Development "Teacher as Scientist" Experiential Learning Field Experience.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabrys, R. E.

2007-12-01

Each year since 2000, the NASA Goddard History of Winter (HOW) program has allowed teachers to develop an understanding of the consequences of one segment of the orbit of the tilted Earth in its path around the sun. Scientists from NASA, CRREL, and Michigan Tech, supported by the Whiteface Observatory, and the science program at Northwood School in Lake Placid, New York, use the weather and the stratigraphy in the ice and snow, consequences of the weather changes, as "teachers" in a team study of the winter record. Snow in the air and on the ground, ice, its crystal structure and axial orientation, and the ecosystem consequences of snow and ice constitute the weeklong content package. Teacher Professional Development Standards A, B, C, and D were the guiding principles in developing HOW with a content structure formulated as protocols to serve as inserts into lesson plans and inquiry guides. The concept of HOW within NASA is to provide understanding of the WHY? and WHAT? of satellite remote sensing. The content is appropriate ground validation in that techniques presented in protocols are identical to those used by professionals who study snow pits, evaluate features in snow metamorphism, and study thin sections of ice cores drilled in ice caps and glaciers. The HOW Teacher as scientist (TAS) model is a flexible model. HOW enables teachers who are required to use inquiry-based facilitation in the classroom to experience inquiry themselves. Teachers with little science content background as well as those with Science degrees have participated in HOW working alongside of the science team. Accommodations are made through differentiation of instruction so that each group leaves with a mastery of the content that is appropriate for the transition to presentation in the classroom. Each year builds on the previous year ensuring a time series record of the history of winter-by itself a learning experience. An offshoot of the NASA Goddard Center History of Winter (HOW) Program, the Global Snowflake Network (GSN) launched in the winter of 2006 engages an international audience including both formal and informal education groups. The goal is to provide an interactive online data resource in science and education for the characterization of snowfall and related weather systems. The Global Snowflake Network has been accepted as an education outreach proposal for the International Polar Year. Collaborations with other agencies and universities also with IPY-accepted proposals are now underway. HOW and the GSN are endorsed by the NASA Goddard Education Office and many of the Goddard Snow and Ice Team scientists. Together these programs offer a unique, sustainable, and proven outreach for the Cryosphere research program. Snowflakes are like frozen data points, their shape is a record of atmospheric conditions at the time of their formation. The shapes of snowflakes vary over the winter season, with the source of a weather system and over the course of a given snowfall. The objective of the Global Snowflake Network (GSN) is to create a global ground team of teachers, students, families, and researchers worldwide to identify snowflake types during the progress of snowfalls. The result is a unique and scientifically valid resource useful to meteorology and scientific modeling of Earth's Hydrosphere. The Global Snowflake Network (GSN), simultaneously a science program and an education program is presented as a simple, scientifically valid project that has the potential to spread the IPY message and produce a lasting resource to further scientific understanding of Earth's hydrology through the study of snow.

An observational analysis: Tropical relative to Arctic influence on midlatitude weather in the era of Arctic amplification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, Judah

2016-05-01

The tropics, in general, and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in particular are almost exclusively relied upon for seasonal forecasting. Much less considered and certainly more controversial is the idea that Arctic variability is influencing midlatitude weather. However, since the late 1980s and early 1990s, the Arctic has undergone the most rapid warming observed globally, referred to as Arctic amplification (AA), which has coincided with an observed increase in extreme weather. Analysis of observed trends in hemispheric circulation over the period of AA more closely resembles variability associated with Arctic boundary forcings than with tropical forcing. Furthermore, analysis of intraseasonal temperature variability shows that the cooling in midlatitude winter temperatures has been accompanied by an increase in temperature variability and not a decrease, popularly referred to as "weather whiplash."

Mars at Ls 137o

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2006-01-01

13 November 2006 These images capture what Mars typically looks like in mid-afternoon at L_s 137o. In other words, with the exception of occasional differences in weather and polar frost patterns, this is what the red planet looks like this month (November 2006).

Six views are shown, including the two polar regions. These are composites of 24-26 Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) daily global mapping images acquired at red and blue wavelengths. The 'hole' over the south pole is an area where no images were obtained, because this polar region is enveloped in wintertime darkness.

Presently, it is summer in the northern hemisphere and winter in the southern hemisphere. Ls, solar longitude, is a measure of the time of year on Mars. Mars travels 360o around the Sun in 1 Mars year. The year begins at Ls 0o, the start of northern spring and southern autumn. Northern summer/southern winter begins at Ls 90o, northern autumn/southern spring start at Ls 180o, and northern winter/southern summer begin at Ls 270o.

L_s 137o occurs in the middle of this month (November 2006). The pictures show how Mars appeared to the MOC wide angle cameras at a previous Ls 137o in March 2001. The six views are centered on the Tharsis region (upper left), Acidalia and Mare Eyrthraeum (upper right), Syrtis Major and Hellas (middle left), Elysium and Mare Cimmeria (middle right), the north pole (lower left), and the south pole (lower right).

The Joint Winter Runway Friction Measurement Program: NASA Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yager, Thomas J.

1996-01-01

Some background information is given together with the scope and objectives of the 5-year, Joint National Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA)/Transport Canada (TC)/Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Winter Runway Friction Measurement Program. The range of the test equipment, the selected test sites and a tentative test program schedule are described. NASA considers the success of this program critical in terms of insuring adequate ground handling performance capability in adverse weather conditions for future aircraft being designed and developed as well as improving the safety of current aircraft ground operations.

Influence of outdoor winter environment on the course of infectious bovine keratoconjunctivitis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kopecky, K.E.; Pugh, G.W. Jr.; McDonald, T.J.

1981-11-01

The effect of environmental conditions on the onset, severity, and duration of Moraxella bovis infection and subsequent clinical disease was studied. Twelve calves were used; 6 were maintained under usual isolated experimental conditions (inside), and 6 were kept under normal feedlot conditions (outside) during the winter (-20 to +15 C). The cattle housed inside had a higher infection rate, a milder disease, and longer duration of infection than did the cattle kept out side. Seemingly, the stress of the cold weather caused a more severe disease of shorter duration.

Raising of Operating a Motor Vehicle Effects on Environment in Winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ertman, S. A.; Ertman, J. A.; Zakharov, D. A.

2016-08-01

Severe low-temperature conditions, in which considerable part of Russian Motor Park is operated, affect vehicles negatively. Cold weather causes higher fuel consumption and C02 emissions always. It is because of temperature profile changing of automobile motors, other systems and materials. For enhancement of car operation efficiency in severe winter environment the dependency of engine warm-up and cooling time on ambient air temperature and wind speed described by multifactorial mathematical models is established. -On the basis of experimental research it was proved that the coolant temperature constitutes the engine representative temperature and may be used as representative temperature of engine at large. The model of generation of integrated index for vehicle adaptability to winter operating conditions by temperature profile of engines was developed. the method for evaluation of vehicle adaptability to winter operating conditions by temperature profile of engines allows to decrease higher fuel consumption in cold climate.

Interannual Modulation of Northern Hemisphere Winter Storm Tracks by the QBO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jiabao; Kim, Hye-Mi; Chang, Edmund K. M.

2018-03-01

Storm tracks, defined as the preferred regions of extratropical synoptic-scale disturbances, have remarkable impacts on global weather and climate systems. Causes of interannual storm track variation have been investigated mostly from a troposphere perspective. As shown in this study, Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks are significantly modulated by the tropical stratosphere through the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The North Pacific storm track shifts poleward during the easterly QBO winters associated with a dipole change in the eddy refraction and baroclinicity. The North Atlantic storm track varies vertically with a downward shrinking (upward expansion) in easterly (westerly) QBO winters associated with the change of the tropopause height. These results not only fill the knowledge gap of QBO-storm track relationship but also suggest a potential route to improve the seasonal prediction of extratropical storm activities owing to the high predictability of the QBO.

Analysis on energy-saving path of rural buildings in hot summer and cold winter zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Mingqiang; Li, Jinheng

2018-02-01

Since the reform and opening policy, the construction of rural area in China has become more and more important. The idea of establishing green villages needs to be accepted and recognized by the public. The hot summer and cold winter zone combines two contradictory weather conditions that is cold winter and hot summer. So the living conditions are limited. In response to this climate, residents extensively use electric heaters or air conditioning to adjust the indoor temperature, resulting in energy waste and environmental pollution. In order to improve the living conditions of residents, rural area energy conservation has been put on the agenda. Based on the present situation and energy consumption analysis of the rural buildings in the hot summer and cold winter zone, this article puts forward several energy saving paths from government, construction technology and so on

Collecting winter data on U.S. Coast Guard icebreakers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oyserman, Ben O.; Woityra, William C.; Bullerjahn, George S.; Beall, Benjamin F. N.; McKay, Robert Michael L.

2012-03-01

Winter research and monitoring of icebound rivers, lakes, and coastal seas to date has usually involved seagoing civilian scientists leading survey efforts. However, because of poor weather conditions and a lack of safe research platforms, scientists collecting data during winter face some difficult and often insurmountable problems. To solve these problems and to further research and environmental monitoring goals, new partnerships can be formed through integrating efforts of the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) with citizen science initiatives. USCG and a research group at Ohio's Bowling Green State University are entering the third year of such a partnership, in which icebreaking operations in Lake Erie using USCG Cutter Neah Bay support volunteer data collection. With two additional USCG vessels joining the program this winter season, the partnership serves as a timely and useful model for worldwide environmental research and monitoring through citizen science and government collaboration.

Temporal development of the correlation between ozone and potential vorticity in the Arctic in the winters of 1988/1989, 1989/1990, and 1990/1991

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knudsen, Bjorn; Vondergathen, Peter; Braathen, Geir O.; Fabian, Rolf; Jorgensen, Torben S.; Kyro, Esko; Neuber, Roland; Rummukainen, Markku

1994-01-01

Ozone sonde data of the winters 1988/89, 1989/90, and 1990/91 from a group of Arctic stations are used in this study. The ozone mixing ratio on several isentropic surfaces is correlated to the potential vorticity (P). The P is based on the initialized analysis data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Similar investigations were made by Lait et al. (Geophys. Res. Lett., 17, 521-524, March Supplement 1990) for the AASE campaign (January and February 1989), showing how the ozone mixing ratio varies with the distance to the edge of the vortex. Their findings are confirmed and extended to the following two winters. Furthermore we have studied the temporal development of the P-ozone correlations during these winters in order to recognize any chemical ozone depletion.

Variability in winter climate and winter extremes reduces population growth of an alpine butterfly.

PubMed

Roland, Jens; Matter, Stephen F

2013-01-01

We examined the long-term, 15-year pattern of population change in a network of 21 Rocky Mountain populations of Parnassius smintheus butterflies in response to climatic variation. We found that winter values of the broadscale climate variable, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index, were a strong predictor of annual population growth, much more so than were endogenous biotic factors related to population density. The relationship between PDO and population growth was nonlinear. Populations declined in years with extreme winter PDO values, when there were either extremely warm or extremely cold sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific relative to that in the western Pacific. Results suggest that more variable winters, and more frequent extremely cold or warm winters, will result in more frequent decline of these populations, a pattern exacerbated by the trend for increasingly variable winters seen over the past century.

Adaptive Blending of Model and Observations for Automated Short-Range Forecasting: Examples from the Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bailey, Monika E.; Isaac, George A.; Gultepe, Ismail; Heckman, Ivan; Reid, Janti

2014-01-01

An automated short-range forecasting system, adaptive blending of observations and model (ABOM), was tested in real time during the 2010 Vancouver Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games in British Columbia. Data at 1-min time resolution were available from a newly established, dense network of surface observation stations. Climatological data were not available at these new stations. This, combined with output from new high-resolution numerical models, provided a unique and exciting setting to test nowcasting systems in mountainous terrain during winter weather conditions. The ABOM method blends extrapolations in time of recent local observations with numerical weather predictions (NWP) model predictions to generate short-range point forecasts of surface variables out to 6 h. The relative weights of the model forecast and the observation extrapolation are based on performance over recent history. The average performance of ABOM nowcasts during February and March 2010 was evaluated using standard scores and thresholds important for Olympic events. Significant improvements over the model forecasts alone were obtained for continuous variables such as temperature, relative humidity and wind speed. The small improvements to forecasts of variables such as visibility and ceiling, subject to discontinuous changes, are attributed to the persistence component of ABOM.

Extremely cold events and sudden air temperature drops during winter season in the Czech Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crhová, Lenka; Valeriánová, Anna; Holtanová, Eva; Müller, Miloslav; Kašpar, Marek; Stříž, Martin

2014-05-01

Today a great attention is turned to analysis of extreme weather events and frequency of their occurrence under changing climate. In most cases, these studies are focused on extremely warm events in summer season. However, extremely low values of air temperature during winter can have serious impacts on many sectors as well (e.g. power engineering, transportation, industry, agriculture, human health). Therefore, in present contribution we focus on extremely and abnormally cold air temperature events in winter season in the Czech Republic. Besides the seasonal extremes of minimum air temperature determined from station data, the standardized data with removed annual cycle are used as well. Distribution of extremely cold events over the season and the temporal evolution of frequency of occurrence during the period 1961-2010 are analyzed. Furthermore, the connection of cold events with extreme sudden temperature drops is studied. The extreme air temperature events and events of extreme sudden temperature drop are assessed using the Weather Extremity Index, which evaluates the extremity (based on return periods) and spatial extent of the meteorological extreme event of interest. The generalized extreme value distribution parameters are used to estimate return periods of daily temperature values. The work has been supported by the grant P209/11/1990 funded by the Czech Science Foundation.

Use of multiple den sites by Eurasian badgers, Meles meles, in a Mediterranean habitat.

PubMed

Loureiro, Filipa; Rosalino, Luís Miguel; Macdonald, David W; Santos-Reis, Margarida

2007-10-01

Den sites are a conspicuous feature of Eurasian badgers, Meles meles, and in many environments include large communal burrows used by several group members. In Serra de Grândola, southwest Portugal, nine badgers from three social groups were captured and radio collared from 2000 to 2004. A total of 1,787 locations of badgers in their resting sites were registered along with a brief description of the type of site and weather conditions. Resting sites were grouped according to structure (burrows, shrubs, rocks, hollow trees and man-made structures) and function (main, secondary and occasional). Although main setts were the most frequently used shelter (62.25%), an average of 14 (SD 7.55) resting sites were used in each territory. The pattern of use varied seasonally, showing differences according to sex and social group. Overall, females used more than twice as many occasional resting sites as did males. Generally burrows, predominantly main setts, were most frequently used during winter and autumn, whilst non-burrow shelters were preferred during spring and summer, when the weather was hot, dry and not windy. Proximity to food patches had no apparent influence on the location of resting sites. Our results offered no support for the foraging-related hypotheses that multiple resting sites are a means of conserving energy or of maintaining proximity to rich food patches. We suggest that other factors such as thermoregulation needs, disturbance, and reproductive status, could be influencing the observed pattern of resting-site use by badgers in Serra de Grândola.

Enhancing our Understanding of Snowfall Modes with Ground-Based Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pettersen, C.; Kulie, M.; Petersen, W. A.; Bliven, L. F.; Wood, N.

2016-12-01

Snowfall can be broadly categorized into deep and shallow events based on the vertical distribution of the precipitating ice. Remotely sensed data refine these precipitation categories and aid in discerning the underlying macro- and microphysical mechanisms. The unique patterns in the remotely sensed instruments observations can potentially connect distinct modes of snowfall to specific processes. Though satellites can observe and recognize these patterns in snowfall, these measurements are limited - particularly in cases of shallow and light precipitation, as the snow may be too close to the surface or below the detection limits of the instrumentation. By enhancing satellite measurements with ground-based instrumentation, whether with limited-term field campaigns or long-term strategic sites, we can further our understanding and assumptions about different snowfall modes and how they are measured from spaceborne instruments. Presented are three years of data from a ground-based instrument suite consisting of a MicroRain Radar (MRR; optimized for snow events) and a Precipitation Imaging Package (PIP). These instruments are located at the Marquette, Michigan National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office to: a) use coincident meteorological measurements and observations to enhance our understanding of the thermodynamic drivers and b) showcase these instruments in an operational setting to enhance forecasts of shallow snow events. Three winters of MRR and PIP measurements are partitioned, based on meteorological surface observations, into two-dimensional histograms of reflectivity and particle size distribution data. These statistics improve our interpretation of deep versus shallow precipitation. Additionally, these statistical techniques are applied to similar datasets from Global Precipitation Measurement field campaigns for further insight into cloud and precipitation macro- and microphysical processes.

The Predicted Influence of Climate Change on Lesser Prairie-Chicken Reproductive Parameters

PubMed Central

Grisham, Blake A.; Boal, Clint W.; Haukos, David A.; Davis, Dawn M.; Boydston, Kathy K.; Dixon, Charles; Heck, Willard R.

2013-01-01

The Southern High Plains is anticipated to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change. These changes may influence the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) in positive or negative ways. We assessed the potential changes in clutch size, incubation start date, and nest survival for lesser prairie-chickens for the years 2050 and 2080 based on modeled predictions of climate change and reproductive data for lesser prairie-chickens from 2001–2011 on the Southern High Plains of Texas and New Mexico. We developed 9 a priori models to assess the relationship between reproductive parameters and biologically relevant weather conditions. We selected weather variable(s) with the most model support and then obtained future predicted values from climatewizard.org. We conducted 1,000 simulations using each reproductive parameter’s linear equation obtained from regression calculations, and the future predicted value for each weather variable to predict future reproductive parameter values for lesser prairie-chickens. There was a high degree of model uncertainty for each reproductive value. Winter temperature had the greatest effect size for all three parameters, suggesting a negative relationship between above-average winter temperature and reproductive output. The above-average winter temperatures are correlated to La Niña events, which negatively affect lesser prairie-chickens through resulting drought conditions. By 2050 and 2080, nest survival was predicted to be below levels considered viable for population persistence; however, our assessment did not consider annual survival of adults, chick survival, or the positive benefit of habitat management and conservation, which may ultimately offset the potentially negative effect of drought on nest survival. PMID:23874549

Assessing the Impact of Air Pollution on Grain Yield of Winter Wheat - A Case Study in the North China Plain.

PubMed

Liu, Xiuwei; Sun, Hongyong; Feike, Til; Zhang, Xiying; Shao, Liwei; Chen, Suying

2016-01-01

The major wheat production region of China the North China Plain (NCP) is seriously affected by air pollution. In this study, yield of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) was analyzed with respect to the potential impact of air pollution index under conditions of optimal crop management in the NCP from 2001 to 2012. Results showed that air pollution was especially serious at the early phase of winter wheat growth significantly influencing various weather factors. However, no significant correlations were found between final grain yield and the weather factors during the early growth phase. In contrast, significant correlations were found between grain yield and total solar radiation gap, sunshine hour gap, diurnal temperature range and relative humidity during the late growing phase. To disentangle the confounding effects of various weather factors, and test the isolated effect of air pollution induced changes in incoming global solar radiation on yield under ceteris paribus conditions, crop model based scenario-analysis was conducted. The simulation results of the calibrated Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model indicated that a reduction in radiation by 10% might cause a yield reduction by more than 10%. Increasing incident radiation by 10% would lead to yield increases of (only) 7%, with the effects being much stronger during the late growing phase compared to the early growing phase. However, there is evidence that APSIM overestimates the effect of air pollution induced changes on radiation, as it does not consider the changes in radiative properties of solar insulation, i.e. the relative increase of diffuse over direct radiation, which may partly alleviate the negative effects of reduced total radiation by air pollution. Concluding, the present study could not detect a significantly negative effect of air pollution on wheat yields in the NCP.

Exceptional winter storms affecting Western Iberia and extremes: diagnosis, modelling and multi-model ensemble projection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liberato, M. L. R.; Pinto, J. G.; Gil, V.; Ramos, A. M.; Trigo, R. M.

2017-12-01

Extratropical cyclones dominate autumn and winter weather over Western Europe and particularly over the Iberian Peninsula. Intense, high-impact storms are one of the major weather risks in the region, mostly due to the simultaneous occurrence of high winds and extreme precipitation events. These intense extratropical cyclones may result in windstorm damage, flooding and coastal storm surges, with large societal impacts. In Portugal, due to the extensive human use of coastal areas, the natural and built coastal environments have been amongst the most affected. In this work several historical winter storms that adversely affected the Western Iberian Peninsula are studied in detail in order to contribute to an improved assessment of the characteristics of these events. The diagnosis has been performed based on instrumental daily precipitation and wind records, on satellite images, on reanalysis data and through model simulations. For several examples the synoptic evolution and upper-level dynamics analysis of physical processes controlling the life cycle of extratropical storms associated with the triggering of the considered extreme events has also been accomplished. Furthermore, the space-time variability of the exceptionally severe storms affecting Western Iberia over the last century and under three climate scenarios (the historical simulation, the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) is presented. These studies contribute to improving the knowledge of atmospheric dynamics controlling the life cycle of midlatitude storms associated to severe weather (precipitation and wind) in the Iberian Peninsula. AcknowledgementsThis work is supported by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), Portugal, through project UID/GEO/50019/2013 - Instituto Dom Luiz. A. M. Ramos is also supported by a FCT postdoctoral grant (FCT/DFRH/SFRH/BPD/84328/2012).

Numerical Modeling of Persistent Winter Fog over the Indo-Gangetic Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghimire, S.; Adhikary, B.; Praveen, P. S.; Panday, A. K.

2017-12-01

Every winter the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) in northern South Asia; bounded by the great Himalayas in the north, are periodically covered by dense and persistent fog that severely impacts day-to-day activities of several hundred million people. The fog can stretch over several hundred kilometers and last several days in many locations. Despite the fog's high impact, there are very limited in-situ observations available to characterize persistent fog episodes. Also, there has been very little success to date in accurately predicting the fog occurrence and extent over a larger area such as IGP. This study will present insights into the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulating persistent winter fog prediction in the IGP region, compared to satellite observations and in-situ measurements. Since fog is not a prognostic variable in WRF, the study presents results based on multi-rule diagnostic algorithms published in peer reviewed journals. In addition, fog episodes were analyzed using the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) diagnostics package available for WRF. On a regional scale, MODIS data onboard the TERRA and AQUA satellites are used to evaluate model performance skills. At a local scale, the model is evaluated at two sites in the southern Nepal, Lumbini and Chitwan, located in the IGP. Lumbini and Chitwan observatories have Luftt and Biral weather sensors which allow monitoring presence of fog, visibility range and surface meteorology. In addition, for Chitwan, data from DMT Fog Monitor (FM 120) and Luftt CHM 15K Ceilometer were used to compare model performance for liquid-water content and planetary boundary layer during foggy and non-foggy days.

Impacts of hot and cold temperature extremes on hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davídkovová, H.; Kyselý, J.; Kříž, B.

2010-09-01

Elevated mortality associated with high ambient temperatures in summer represents one of the main impacts of weather extremes on human society. Increases in mortality during heat waves were examined in many European countries; much less is known about the effects of heat waves on morbidity, measured for example by the number of hospital admissions. Relatively less understood is also cold-related mortality and morbidity in winter, when the relationships between weather and human health are more complex, less direct, and confounded by other factors such as epidemics of influenza/acute respiratory infections. The present study examines links between hot and cold temperature extremes and daily hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases in the population of the Czech Republic over 1994-2007. We make use of a recently completed database of all admissions for cardiovascular diseases to hospitals in the area of the Czech Republic since 1994, with a detailed classification of diseases and detailed information concerning each patient (in total 1,467,675 hospital admissions over 1994-2007). The main goals of the study are (i) to identify excess/deficit morbidity during and after periods of heat waves in summer and cold spells in winter, (ii) to compare the links for individual diseases (e.g. acute myocardial infarction, I21; angina pectoris, I20; cerebral infarction, I63; brain ischemia, I64) and to identify those diagnoses that are most closely linked to weather, (iii) to identify population groups most vulnerable to temperature extremes, and (iv) to compare the links to temperature extremes for morbidity and mortality. Periods when morbidity data were affected by epidemics of influenza and acute respiratory infections in winter were excluded from the analysis.

Microbial Load of Hard Red Winter Wheat Produced at Three Growing Environments across Nebraska, USA.

PubMed

Sabillón, Luis; Stratton, Jayne; Rose, Devin J; Regassa, Teshome H; Bianchini, Andréia

2016-04-01

Post-flowering weather variables in farm fields may influence the microbial loads of wheat grain. In this study, the effects of weather variables following wheat flowering on the microbiological quality of wheat were evaluated over two consecutive growing seasons (2011 to 2012 and 2012 to 2013) in the state of Nebraska, USA. Three hard red winter wheat lines, including two commercial cultivars (Overland and McGill) and one experimental line (NW07505), were planted in three regions with contrasting key weather variables (Southeast, South Central, and Panhandle district) to ensure that developing seeds were exposed to different weather conditions. The natural microbial flora and deoxynivalenol concentrations of 54 freshly harvested wheat samples (three samples per wheat line, with a total of 9 samples per district) were analyzed to evaluate the impacts of the weather conditions prevailing from flowering to harvesting in each growing location (district) and season on the microbiological quality and safety of wheat grain. In 2012, the values for aerobic plate counts, Enterobacteriaceae, yeasts, molds, and internal mold infection levels were significantly lower in grain samples collected from the Panhandle district than in grain harvested from the South Central and Southeastern districts. No significant differences in the yeast counts were found in grain collected from all districts in 2013, but the levels of internal mold infection and mold counts were significantly higher in grain from the Southeastern district than in grain from the Panhandle district. Deoxynivalenol was detected in all districts; however, the concentrations were below the advisory level of 1 mg/kg for processed wheat. Microbial growth during grain development seems to be dependent on the existence of a threshold level of weather variables during the season. In general, the microbial loads in wheat grain tended to be lower in those areas with lower relative humidity levels (below 55%) and with temperatures lower than 13.7°C and higher than 31.5°C.

Have a Nice Spring! MOC Revisits "Happy Face" Crater

NASA Image and Video Library

2005-05-16

Smile! Spring has sprung in the martian southern hemisphere. With it comes the annual retreat of the winter polar frost cap. This view of "Happy Face Crater"--officially named "Galle Crater"--shows patches of white water ice frost in and around the crater's south-facing slopes. Slopes that face south will retain frost longer than north-facing slopes because they do not receive as much sunlight in early spring. This picture is a composite of images taken by the Mars Global Surveyor Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) red and blue wide angle cameras. The wide angle cameras were designed to monitor the changing weather, frost, and wind patterns on Mars. Galle Crater is located on the east rim of the Argyre Basin and is about 215 kilometers (134 miles) across. In this picture, illumination is from the upper left and north is up. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA02325

Remote sensing analysis of Lake Livingston aquatic plants

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Benton, A. R., Jr.; Newman, R. M.

1976-01-01

Results obtained during 1975 to monitor the growth of aquatic plants in the Lake Livingston area, using remote sensing photographic imagery, were described. Sequential total coverage was provided of the Jungle and White Rock Creek, plus coverage of smaller areas of localized infestation downlake, including Brushy Creek, KOA Kampground Marina, Penwaugh Slough, Memorial Point Marina, the Beacon Bay marinas and Pine Island. The imagery was generally good, photographic exposure being increased as the season progressed in order to obtain better pictures of the submerged vegetation. Some very significant differences in growth patterns, species interaction, and species dominance were observed when compared to 1974. Observation of the following plants was discussed: water hyacinth, hydrilla, coontail, potamageton. In general, the level of infestation was lower in 1975 than in 1974, due to the combined effect of more systematic application of herbicides and harsher intervening winter weather conditions.

Impact of long farm working hours on child safety practices in agricultural settings.

PubMed

Marlenga, Barbara; Pahwa, Punam; Hagel, Louise; Dosman, James; Pickett, William; Brison, Robert J; Crowe, Trever; Koehncke, Niels; Snodgrass, Phyllis; Day, Lesley; Voaklander, Donald

2010-01-01

To characterize working hours of adult farm owner-operators and their spouses by season, and to examine associations between working hours and farm safety practices affecting children. We conducted a secondary analysis of cross-sectional survey data collected as part of an existing study of injury and its determinants. Owner-operators reported a median of 60 to 70 hours of farm work per week during warm weather months, with declines in hours over the winter. Spouses reported similar seasonal patterns, although their median reported hours were much lower. Longer farm working hours by owner-operators were marginally associated with increased exposure of teenagers to farm work hazards. Exposures of young children to worksite hazards rose in association with longer farm working hours by spouses. Exposures of children to farm worksite hazards and demands may be consequences of adult long working hours. © 2010 National Rural Health Association.

Impacts of four northern-hemisphere teleconnection patterns on atmospheric circulations over Eurasia and the Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Tao; Yu, Jin-yi; Paek, Houk

2017-08-01

The impacts of four teleconnection patterns on atmospheric circulation components over Eurasia and the Pacific region, from low to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), were investigated comprehensively in this study. The patterns, as identified by the Climate Prediction Center (USA), were the East Atlantic (EA), East Atlantic/Western Russia (EAWR), Polar/Eurasia (POLEUR), and Scandinavian (SCAND) teleconnections. Results indicate that the EA pattern is closely related to the intensity of the subtropical high over different sectors of the NH in all seasons, especially boreal winter. The wave train associated with this pattern serves as an atmospheric bridge that transfers Atlantic influence into the low-latitude region of the Pacific. In addition, the amplitudes of the EAWR, SCAND, and POLEUR patterns were found to have considerable control on the "Vangengeim-Girs" circulation that forms over the Atlantic-Eurasian region in winter or spring. The EA and EAWR mainly affect the westerlies in winter and spring and the POLEUR and SCAND, respectively, in summer and winter. Strong westerlies confine the extension of the North Polar vortex, which generally results in a small weak vortex and a shallow East Asian trough located in a position further east than normal. Furthermore, the North Polar vortex presents significant connections with the patterns during winter and summer. Analyses in this work suggest that the teleconnection patterns in summer could be driven, at least partly, by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, which to some degree might transmit the influence of the Atlantic Ocean to Eurasia and the Pacific region.

NASA Sees Major Winter Storm Headed for Eastern U.S.

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

On Jan. 20 at 2:30 p.m. EST the VIIRS instrument aboard NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP captured this image of the winter storm moving through the central U.S. Credits: NASA Goddard Rapid Response The low pressure area from the Eastern Pacific Ocean moved into the western U.S. and tracked across the four corners region into Texas where NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite observed the clouds associated with the storm. The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument aboard Suomi NPP satellite captured the visible image on January 20, 2016 at 19:30 UTC (2:30 p.m. EST) when the storm was over the central U.S. In the image, snow cover is visible in the Rockies and southern Great Lakes states. VIIRS collects visible and infrared imagery and global observations of land, atmosphere, cryosphere and oceans. That low pressure system located over the south central United States on Jan. 21 is expected to track east across the Tennessee Valley and will give way to a deepening coastal low pressure area. The National Weather Service said "This latter feature takes over and becomes a dominant force in setting up heavy snow bands over the Mid-Atlantic and very gusty winds." The storm system is expected to bring an increased risk of severe weather from far southeastern Texas across southern Louisiana/Mississippi, and into the far western Florida Panhandle on Thursday, Jan. 21. That threat for severe weather will move east as the low pressure area continues heading in that direction. The National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland said "A potentially crippling winter storm is anticipated for portions of the mid-Atlantic Friday into early Saturday. Snowfall may approach two feet for some locations, including the Baltimore and Washington, D.C. metro areas. Farther north, there is uncertainty in snowfall for the New York City-to-Boston corridor. Farther south, significant icing is likely for portions of Kentucky and North Carolina." NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Weather Features Associated with Aircraft Icing Conditions: A Case Study

PubMed Central

Fernández-González, Sergio; Sánchez, José Luis; Gascón, Estíbaliz; López, Laura; García-Ortega, Eduardo; Merino, Andrés

2014-01-01

In the context of aviation weather hazards, the study of aircraft icing is very important because of several accidents attributed to it over recent decades. On February 1, 2012, an unusual meteorological situation caused severe icing of a C-212-200, an aircraft used during winter 2011-2012 to study winter cloud systems in the Guadarrama Mountains of the central Iberian Peninsula. Observations in this case were from a MP-3000A microwave radiometric profiler, which acquired atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles continuously every 2.5 minutes. A Cloud Aerosol and Precipitation Spectrometer (CAPS) was also used to study cloud hydrometeors. Finally, ice nuclei concentration was measured in an isothermal cloud chamber, with the goal of calculating concentrations in the study area. Synoptic and mesoscale meteorological conditions were analysed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. It was demonstrated that topography influenced generation of a mesolow and gravity waves on the lee side of the orographic barrier, in the region where the aircraft experienced icing. Other factors such as moisture, wind direction, temperature, atmospheric stability, and wind shear were decisive in the appearance of icing. This study indicates that icing conditions may arise locally, even when the synoptic situation does not indicate any risk. PMID:24701152

Avalanche risk in backcountry terrain based on usage frequency and accident data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Techel, F.; Zweifel, B.; Winkler, K.

2014-08-01

In Switzerland, the vast majority of avalanche accidents occurs during recreational activities. Risk analysis studies mostly rely on accident statistics without considering exposure (or the elements at risk), i.e. how many and where people are recreating. We compared the accident data (backcountry touring) with reports from two social media mountaineering networks - bergportal.ch and camptocamp.org. On these websites, users reported more than 15 000 backcountry tours during the five winters 2009/2010 to 2013/2014. We noted similar patterns in avalanche accident data and user data like demographics of recreationists, distribution of the day of the week (weekday vs. weekend) or weather conditions (fine vs. poor weather). However, we also found differences such as the avalanche danger conditions on days with activities and accidents, but also the geographic distribution. While backcountry activities are concentrated in proximity to the main population centres in the West and North of the Swiss Alps, a large proportion of the severe avalanche accidents occurred in the inner-alpine, more continental regions with frequently unfavorably snowpack structure. This suggests that even greater emphasis should be put on the type of avalanche problem in avalanche education and avalanche forecasting to increase the safety of backcountry recreationists.

Atmospheric Science: It's More than Meteorology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, David R.; Krockover, Gerald H.

1988-01-01

Indicates that atmospheric science is not just forcasting the weather. Gives an overview of current topics in meteorology including ozone depletion, acid precipitation, winter cyclones, severe local storms, the greenhouse effect, wind shear and microbursts. Outlines the Atmospheric Sciences Education Program at Purdue University to produce…

Travel Information, Transportation & Public Facilities, State of Alaska

Science.gov Websites

outside site Report Potholes Road Conditions (511) Road Maintenance Central Region Maintenance & ; Operations Northern Region Maintenance & Operations Southcoast Region Maintenance & Operations Road Weather Information System Street Sweeping - Anchorage & Eagle River Winter Road Maintenance Priority

Winter Weather Emergencies - Multiple Languages

MedlinePlus

... sharing features on this page, please enable JavaScript. Arabic (العربية) Bosnian (bosanski) Modern Standard Arabic (Arabic dialect) (العربية الفصحى, عربي فصيح) Somali (Af- ...

Influence of weather on low larkspur (Delphinium nuttallianum) density

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Delphinium nuttallianum (low larkspur) causes serious cattle losses on mountain rangelands in western North America. Risk of cattle deaths is related to density of low larkspurs. Our hypothesis was that warmer winter/spring conditions, coupled with below average precipitation, would result in reduc...

Climate and life-history evolution in evening primroses (Oenothera, Onagraceae): a phylogenetic comparative analysis.

PubMed

Evans, Margaret E K; Hearn, David J; Hahn, William J; Spangle, Jennifer M; Venable, D Lawrence

2005-09-01

Evolutionary ecologists have long sought to understand the conditions under which perennial (iteroparous) versus annual (semelparous) plant life histories are favored. We evaluated the idea that aridity and variation in the length of droughts should favor the evolution of an annual life history, both by decreasing adult survival and by increasing the potential for high seedling survival via reduced plant cover. We calculated phylogenetically independent contrasts of climate with respect to life history in a clade of winter-establishing evening primroses (sections Anogra and Kleinia; Oenothera; Onagraceae), which includes seven annuals, 12 perennials, and two variable taxa. Climate variables were quantified from long-term records at weather stations near collection localities. To explicitly account for phylogenetic uncertainty, contrasts were calculated on a random sample of phylogenetic trees from the posterior distribution of a Bayesian analysis of DNA sequence data. Statements of association are based on comparing the per-tree mean contrast, which has a null expectation of zero, to a set of per-tree mean contrasts calculated on the same trees, after randomizing the climate data. As predicted, increased annual aridity, increased annual potential evapotranspiration, and decreased annual precipitation were associated with transitions to the annual habit, but these trends were not significantly different from the null pattern. Transitions to the annual habit were not significantly associated with increases in one measure of aridity in summer nor with increased summer drought, but they were associated with significantly increased maximum summer temperatures. In winter, increased aridity and decreased precipitation were significantly associated with transitions to the annual habit. Changes in life history were not significantly associated with changes in the coefficient of variation of precipitation, either on an annual or seasonal (summer vs. winter) basis. Though we cannot attribute causality on the basis of a correlational, historical study, our results are consistent with the idea that increased heat and drought at certain times of the year favor the evolution of the annual habit. Increased heat in summer may cause adult survival to decline, while increased aridity and decreased precipitation in the season of seedling recruitment (winter) may favor a drought-avoiding, short-lived annual strategy. Not all of the predicted patterns were observed: the capability for drought-induced dormancy may preclude change in habit in response to summer drought in our study group.

Deep Learning for Extreme Weather Detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prabhat, M.; Racah, E.; Biard, J.; Liu, Y.; Mudigonda, M.; Kashinath, K.; Beckham, C.; Maharaj, T.; Kahou, S.; Pal, C.; O'Brien, T. A.; Wehner, M. F.; Kunkel, K.; Collins, W. D.

2017-12-01

We will present our latest results from the application of Deep Learning methods for detecting, localizing and segmenting extreme weather patterns in climate data. We have successfully applied supervised convolutional architectures for the binary classification tasks of detecting tropical cyclones and atmospheric rivers in centered, cropped patches. We have subsequently extended our architecture to a semi-supervised formulation, which is capable of learning a unified representation of multiple weather patterns, predicting bounding boxes and object categories, and has the capability to detect novel patterns (w/ few, or no labels). We will briefly present our efforts in scaling the semi-supervised architecture to 9600 nodes of the Cori supercomputer, obtaining 15PF performance. Time permitting, we will highlight our efforts in pixel-level segmentation of weather patterns.

Effects of climate events driven hydrodynamics on dissolved oxygen in a subtropical deep reservoir in Taiwan.

PubMed

Fan, Cheng-Wei; Kao, Shuh-Ji

2008-04-15

The seasonal concentrations of dissolved oxygen in a subtropical deep reservoir were studied over a period of one year. The study site was the Feitsui Reservoir in Taiwan. It is a dam-constructed reservoir with a surface area of 10.24 km(2) and a mean depth of 39.6 m, with a maximum depth of 113.5 m near the dam. It was found that certain weather and climate events, such as typhoons in summer and autumn, as well as cold fronts in winter, can deliver oxygen-rich water, and consequently have strong impacts on the dissolved oxygen level. The typhoon turbidity currents and winter density currents played important roles in supplying oxygen to the middle and bottom water, respectively. The whole process can be understood by the hydrodynamics driven by weather and climate events. This work provides the primary results of dissolved oxygen in a subtropical deep reservoir, and the knowledge is useful in understanding water quality in subtropical regions.

Impact of Climate Change on Potential, Attainable, and Actual Wheat Yield in Oklahoma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhakal, K.; Linde, E.; Kakani, V. G.; Alderman, P. D.; Brunson, D.; Ochsner, T. E.; Carver, B.

2017-12-01

Gradually developing climatic and weather anomalies due to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases concentration can pose threat to farmers and resource managers. This study was aimed at investigating the effects of climate change on winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) under the Representative Concentration Pathways 6.0 and 8.5 using downscaled climate projections from different models and their ensembles. Daily data of maximum and minimum air temperature, rainfall, and solar radiation for, four General Circulation Models (MRIOC5, MRI-CGCM3, HadGEM2-ES, CSRIO-Mk3.6.0), ensemble of four models and ensemble of 17 GCMs, at 800 m resolution, were developed for two RCPs using Marksim. We describe a methodology for rapid synthesis of GCM-based, spatially explicit, high resolution future weather data inputs for the DSSAT crop model, for cropland area across wheat growing regions of Oklahoma for the future period 2040-2060. The potential impacts of climate change and variability on potential, attainable, and actual winter wheat yield in Oklahoma is discussed.

Satellites see major winter storm marching toward the U.S. East Coast

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

NASA and NOAA satellites are providing various views of the major winter storm marching toward the U.S. East coast on March 13. The storm is forecast to merge with another system and is expected to bring large snowfall totals from the Mid-Atlantic to New England. NASA's Aqua satellite gathered infrared data from the storm system and the area ahead of the storm for cloud and ground temperatures. NOAA's GOES-East satellite provided visible and infrared imagery that showed the extent and the movement of the system. Forecasters at the National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center (WPC) noted that the low pressure system crossing the Midwest states and Ohio Valley is expected to merge with another low off the southeast U.S. coast. WPC stated "This will allow for a strong nor'easter to develop near the coast and cause a late-season snowstorm from the central Appalachians to New England, including many of the big cities in the Northeast U.S." Credits: NASA/NOAA GOES Project