Sample records for within-species warning function

  1. Signal honesty and predation risk among a closely related group of aposematic species

    PubMed Central

    María Arenas, Lina; Walter, Dominic; Stevens, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Many animals have bright colours to warn predators that they have defences and are not worth attacking. However, it remains unclear whether the strength of warning colours reliably indicate levels of defence. Few studies have unambiguously established if warning signals are honest, and have rarely considered predator vision or conspicuousness against the background. Importantly, little data exists either on how differences in signal strength translate into survival advantages. Ladybirds exhibit impressive variation in coloration both among and within species. Here we demonstrate that different levels of toxicity exist among and within ladybird species, and that signal contrast against the background is a good predictor of toxicity, showing that the colours are honest signals. Furthermore, field experiments with ladybird models created with regards to predator vision show that models with lower conspicuousness were attacked more frequently. This provides one of the most comprehensive studies on signal honesty in warning coloration to date. PMID:26046332

  2. Maintaining mimicry diversity: optimal warning colour patterns differ among microhabitats in Amazonian clearwing butterflies.

    PubMed

    Willmott, Keith R; Robinson Willmott, Julia C; Elias, Marianne; Jiggins, Chris D

    2017-05-31

    Mimicry is one of the best-studied examples of adaptation, and recent studies have provided new insights into the role of mimicry in speciation and diversification. Classical Müllerian mimicry theory predicts convergence in warning signal among protected species, yet tropical butterflies are exuberantly diverse in warning colour patterns, even within communities. We tested the hypothesis that microhabitat partitioning in aposematic butterflies and insectivorous birds can lead to selection for different colour patterns in different microhabitats and thus help maintain mimicry diversity. We measured distribution across flight height and topography for 64 species of clearwing butterflies (Ithomiini) and their co-mimics, and 127 species of insectivorous birds, in an Amazon rainforest community. For the majority of bird species, estimated encounter rates were non-random for the two most abundant mimicry rings. Furthermore, most butterfly species in these two mimicry rings displayed the warning colour pattern predicted to be optimal for anti-predator defence in their preferred microhabitats. These conclusions were supported by a field trial using butterfly specimens, which showed significantly different predation rates on colour patterns in two microhabitats. We therefore provide the first direct evidence to support the hypothesis that different mimicry patterns can represent stable, community-level adaptations to differing biotic environments. © 2017 The Author(s).

  3. Maintaining mimicry diversity: optimal warning colour patterns differ among microhabitats in Amazonian clearwing butterflies

    PubMed Central

    Robinson Willmott, Julia C.

    2017-01-01

    Mimicry is one of the best-studied examples of adaptation, and recent studies have provided new insights into the role of mimicry in speciation and diversification. Classical Müllerian mimicry theory predicts convergence in warning signal among protected species, yet tropical butterflies are exuberantly diverse in warning colour patterns, even within communities. We tested the hypothesis that microhabitat partitioning in aposematic butterflies and insectivorous birds can lead to selection for different colour patterns in different microhabitats and thus help maintain mimicry diversity. We measured distribution across flight height and topography for 64 species of clearwing butterflies (Ithomiini) and their co-mimics, and 127 species of insectivorous birds, in an Amazon rainforest community. For the majority of bird species, estimated encounter rates were non-random for the two most abundant mimicry rings. Furthermore, most butterfly species in these two mimicry rings displayed the warning colour pattern predicted to be optimal for anti-predator defence in their preferred microhabitats. These conclusions were supported by a field trial using butterfly specimens, which showed significantly different predation rates on colour patterns in two microhabitats. We therefore provide the first direct evidence to support the hypothesis that different mimicry patterns can represent stable, community-level adaptations to differing biotic environments. PMID:28539522

  4. Intra-specific downsizing of frugivores affects seed germination of fleshy-fruited plant species

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pérez-Méndez, Néstor; Rodríguez, Airam; Nogales, Manuel

    2018-01-01

    The loss of largest-bodied individuals within species of frugivorous animals is one of the major consequences of defaunation. The gradual disappearance of large-bodied frugivores is expected to entail a parallel deterioration in seed dispersal functionality if the remaining smaller-sized individuals are not so effective as seed dispersers. While the multiple impacts of the extinction of large bodied species have been relatively well studied, the impact of intraspecific downsizing (i.e. the extinction of large individuals within species) on seed dispersal has rarely been evaluated. Here we experimentally assessed the impact of body-size reduction in the frugivorous lizard Gallotia galloti (Lacertidae), an endemic species of the Canary Islands, on the seed germination patterns of two fleshy-fruited plant species (Rubia fruticosa and Withania aristata). Seed germination curves and the proportions of germinated seeds were compared for both plant species after being defecated by large-sized individuals and small-sized individuals. The data show that seeds of W. aristata defecated by larger-sized lizards germinated faster and in a higher percentage than those defecated by small-sized lizards, while no differences were found for R. fruticosa seeds. Our results suggest that disappearance of the largest individuals of frugivorous species may impair recruitment of some plant species by worsening seed germination. They also warn us of a potential cryptic loss of seed dispersal functionality on defaunated ecosystems, even when frugivorous species remain abundant.

  5. Warning times for species extinctions due to climate change.

    PubMed

    Stanton, Jessica C; Shoemaker, Kevin T; Pearson, Richard G; Akçakaya, H Resit

    2015-03-01

    Climate change is likely to become an increasingly major obstacle to slowing the rate of species extinctions. Several new assessment approaches have been proposed for identifying climate-vulnerable species, based on the assumption that established systems such as the IUCN Red List need revising or replacing because they were not developed to explicitly consider climate change. However, no assessment approach has been tested to determine its ability to provide advanced warning time for conservation action for species that might go extinct due to climate change. To test the performance of the Red List system in this capacity, we used linked niche-demographic models with habitat dynamics driven by a 'business-as-usual' climate change scenario. We generated replicate 100-year trajectories for range-restricted reptiles and amphibians endemic to the United States. For each replicate, we categorized the simulated species according to IUCN Red List criteria at annual, 5-year, and 10-year intervals (the latter representing current practice). For replicates that went extinct, we calculated warning time as the number of years the simulated species was continuously listed in a threatened category prior to extinction. To simulate data limitations, we repeated the analysis using a single criterion at a time (disregarding other listing criteria). Results show that when all criteria can be used, the Red List system would provide several decades of warning time (median = 62 years; >20 years for 99% of replicates), but suggest that conservation actions should begin as soon as a species is listed as Vulnerable, because 50% of replicates went extinct within 20 years of becoming uplisted to Critically Endangered. When only one criterion was used, warning times were substantially shorter, but more frequent assessments increased the warning time by about a decade. Overall, we found that the Red List criteria reliably provide a sensitive and precautionary way to assess extinction risk under climate change. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Does direct human eye contact function as a warning cue for domestic sheep (Ovis aries)?

    PubMed

    Beausoleil, Ngaio J; Stafford, Kevin J; Mellor, David J

    2006-08-01

    Direct eye contact may function as a warning cue during interspecific interactions, and human staring has been shown to influence the behavior of many species. The authors used an arena test to assess whether human staring altered the behavior of domestic sheep (Ovis aries) compared with no human eye contact. Sheep glanced at the staring human's face more often in the first 2 min of the test, indicating that they perceived a difference between the human stimuli. Staring also elicited more locomotor activity and urination than averted gaze. However, there were no differences in fear-related behaviors, suggesting that a staring human did not represent a greater immediate threat than a nonwatching human. These results imply that human staring is a warning cue for domestic sheep, but no more. Without further reinforcement, sheep quickly habituated to the warning cue. ((c) 2006 APA, all rights reserved).

  7. Phytogeographic patterns and cryptic diversity in an aposematic toad from NW Argentina.

    PubMed

    Clemente-Carvalho, Rute B; Vaira, Marcos; King, Laura E; Koscinski, Daria; Bonansea, Maria I; Lougheed, Stephen C

    2017-11-01

    The Yungas Redbelly Toad, Melanophryniscus rubriventris, is patchily distributed in Argentina, confined to the upland portion (1000-2000m above sea level) of the montane forests of northern and central regions of Salta, and in central-eastern and south-eastern Jujuy. This species is known for its striking aposematic color variation across its geographic distribution, and was once treated as a complex of three subspecies based on distinctive color patterns. Here we assess the geographical genetic variation within M. rubriventris and quantify divergence in color and pattern among individuals sampled from Northwestern Argentina. We compare multi-gene phylogeography of M. rubriventris to patterns of dorsal and ventral coloration to test whether evolutionary affinities predict variation in warning color. Our results reveal two well-supported species lineages: one confined to the extreme northern portion of our sampling area, and the other extending over most of the Argentine portion of the species' range, within which there are two populations. However, these well-supported evolutionary relationships do not mirror the marked variation in warning coloration. This discordance between DNA genealogy and warning color variation may reflect selection brought about by differences in local predation pressures, potentially coupled with effects of sexual selection and thermoregulation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Conflict of interest and FCTC implementation in China.

    PubMed

    Wan, Xia; Ma, Shaojun; Hoek, Janet; Yang, Jie; Wu, Lanyan; Zhou, Jiushun; Yang, Gonghuan

    2012-07-01

    To critically review the structure of tobacco control policy making in China, examine conflicts of interest within this structure, and consider how these affected the introduction of on-pack warnings. Government policy documents and warning labels were obtained and critically reviewed. Few differences exist between the on-pack warnings formerly used in China and those introduced ostensibly to meet Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) obligations. Comparison with tobacco manufactured for export or overseas consumption shows the new Chinese domestic on-pack warnings are demonstrably inferior to those required internationally. The inherent conflict of interest in the Chinese tobacco control agency structure, which must meet commercial and public health objectives, undermined the introduction of new health warnings. To promote more effective tobacco control policies, the conflict of interest inhibiting the public health function of the State Tobacco Monopoly Administration (STMA) must be removed. Specifically, the public health function must be separated from oversight of commercial production, and packaging must be redesigned with pictorial warnings and messages compliant with Article 11 of the FCTC.

  9. Warning signal brightness variation: sexual selection may work under the radar of natural selection in populations of a polytypic poison frog.

    PubMed

    Crothers, Laura R; Cummings, Molly E

    2013-05-01

    Though theory predicts consistency of warning signals in aposematic species to facilitate predator learning, variation in these signals often occurs in nature. The strawberry poison frog Dendrobates pumilio is an exceptionally polytypic (populations are phenotypically distinct) aposematic frog exhibiting variation in warning color and brightness. In the Solarte population, males and females both respond differentially to male brightness variation. Here, we demonstrate through spectrophotometry and visual modeling that aposematic brightness variation within this population is likely visible to two putative predators (crabs, snakes) and conspecifics but not to the presumed major predator (birds). This study thus suggests that signal brightness within D. pumilio populations can be shaped by sexual selection, with limited opportunity for natural selection to influence this trait due to predator sensory constraints. Because signal brightness changes can ultimately lead to changes in hue, our findings at the within-population level can provide insights into understanding this polytypism at across-population scales.

  10. Forecasting weed distributions using climate data: a GIS early warning tool

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Holcombe, Tracy R.; Barnett, David T.; Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Kartesz, John T.

    2010-01-01

    The number of invasive exotic plant species establishing in the United States is continuing to rise. When prevention of exotic species from entering into a country fails at the national level and the species establishes, reproduces, spreads, and becomes invasive, the most successful action at a local level is early detection followed eradication. We have developed a simple geographic information system (GIS) analysis for developing watch lists for early detection of invasive exotic plants that relies upon currently available species distribution data coupled with environmental data to aid in describing coarse-scale potential distributions. This GIS analysis tool develops environmental envelopes for species based upon the known distribution of a species thought to be invasive and represents the first approximation of its potential habitat while the necessary data are collected to perform more in­-depth analyses. To validate this method we looked at a time series of species distributions for 66 species in Pacific Northwest, and northern Rocky Mountain counties. The time series analysis presented here did select counties that the invasive exotic weeds invaded in subsequent years, showing that this technique could be useful in developing watch lists for the spread of particular exotic species. We applied this same habitat-matching model based upon bioclimaric envelopes to 100 invasive exotics with various levels of known distributions within continental U.S. counties. For species with climatically limited distributions, county watch lists describe county-specific vulnerability to invasion. Species with matching habitats in a county would be added to that county's list. These watch lists can influence management decisions for early warning, control prioritization, and targeted research to determine specific locations within vulnerable counties. This tool provides useful information for rapid assessment of the potential distribution based upon climate envelopes of current distributions for new invasive exotic species.

  11. Unexpected high vulnerability of functions in wilderness areas: evidence from coral reef fishes.

    PubMed

    D'agata, Stéphanie; Vigliola, Laurent; Graham, Nicholas A J; Wantiez, Laurent; Parravicini, Valeriano; Villéger, Sébastien; Mou-Tham, Gerard; Frolla, Philippe; Friedlander, Alan M; Kulbicki, Michel; Mouillot, David

    2016-12-14

    High species richness is thought to support the delivery of multiple ecosystem functions and services under changing environments. Yet, some species might perform unique functional roles while others are redundant. Thus, the benefits of high species richness in maintaining ecosystem functioning are uncertain if functions have little redundancy, potentially leading to high vulnerability of functions. We studied the natural propensity of assemblages to be functionally buffered against loss prior to fishing activities, using functional trait combinations, in coral reef fish assemblages across unfished wilderness areas of the Indo-Pacific: Chagos Archipelago, New Caledonia and French Polynesia. Fish functional diversity in these wilderness areas is highly vulnerable to fishing, explained by species- and abundance-based redundancy packed into a small combination of traits, leaving most other trait combinations (60%) sensitive to fishing, with no redundancy. Functional vulnerability peaks for mobile and sedentary top predators, and large species in general. Functional vulnerability decreases for certain functional entities in New Caledonia, where overall functional redundancy was higher. Uncovering these baseline patterns of functional vulnerability can offer early warning signals of the damaging effects from fishing, and may serve as baselines to guide precautionary and even proactive conservation actions. © 2016 The Author(s).

  12. Unexpected high vulnerability of functions in wilderness areas: evidence from coral reef fishes

    PubMed Central

    Vigliola, Laurent; Graham, Nicholas A. J.; Wantiez, Laurent; Parravicini, Valeriano; Villéger, Sébastien; Mou-Tham, Gerard; Frolla, Philippe; Friedlander, Alan M.; Kulbicki, Michel; Mouillot, David

    2016-01-01

    High species richness is thought to support the delivery of multiple ecosystem functions and services under changing environments. Yet, some species might perform unique functional roles while others are redundant. Thus, the benefits of high species richness in maintaining ecosystem functioning are uncertain if functions have little redundancy, potentially leading to high vulnerability of functions. We studied the natural propensity of assemblages to be functionally buffered against loss prior to fishing activities, using functional trait combinations, in coral reef fish assemblages across unfished wilderness areas of the Indo-Pacific: Chagos Archipelago, New Caledonia and French Polynesia. Fish functional diversity in these wilderness areas is highly vulnerable to fishing, explained by species- and abundance-based redundancy packed into a small combination of traits, leaving most other trait combinations (60%) sensitive to fishing, with no redundancy. Functional vulnerability peaks for mobile and sedentary top predators, and large species in general. Functional vulnerability decreases for certain functional entities in New Caledonia, where overall functional redundancy was higher. Uncovering these baseline patterns of functional vulnerability can offer early warning signals of the damaging effects from fishing, and may serve as baselines to guide precautionary and even proactive conservation actions. PMID:27928042

  13. Method and system for monitoring and displaying engine performance parameters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Abbott, Terence S. (Inventor); Person, Jr., Lee H. (Inventor)

    1991-01-01

    The invention is a method and system for monitoring and directly displaying the actual thrust produced by a jet aircraft engine under determined operating conditions and the available thrust and predicted (commanded) thrust of a functional model of an ideal engine under the same determined operating conditions. A first set of actual value output signals representative of a plurality of actual performance parameters of the engine under the determined operating conditions is generated and compared with a second set of predicted value output signals representative of the predicted value of corresponding performance parameters of a functional model of the engine under the determined operating conditions to produce a third set of difference value output signals within a range of normal, caution, or warning limit values. A thrust indicator displays when any one of the actual value output signals is in the warning range while shaping function means shape each of the respective difference output signals as each approaches the limit of the respective normal, caution, and warning range limits.

  14. Source modeling and inversion with near real-time GPS: a GITEWS perspective for Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Babeyko, A. Y.; Hoechner, A.; Sobolev, S. V.

    2010-07-01

    We present the GITEWS approach to source modeling for the tsunami early warning in Indonesia. Near-field tsunami implies special requirements to both warning time and details of source characterization. To meet these requirements, we employ geophysical and geological information to predefine a maximum number of rupture parameters. We discretize the tsunamigenic Sunda plate interface into an ordered grid of patches (150×25) and employ the concept of Green's functions for forward and inverse rupture modeling. Rupture Generator, a forward modeling tool, additionally employs different scaling laws and slip shape functions to construct physically reasonable source models using basic seismic information only (magnitude and epicenter location). GITEWS runs a library of semi- and fully-synthetic scenarios to be extensively employed by system testing as well as by warning center personnel teaching and training. Near real-time GPS observations are a very valuable complement to the local tsunami warning system. Their inversion provides quick (within a few minutes on an event) estimation of the earthquake magnitude, rupture position and, in case of sufficient station coverage, details of slip distribution.

  15. Searching for early-warning signals of impending dieback and death in Mediterranean oaks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Colangelo, Michele; Ripullone, Francesco; Julio Camarero, Jesus; De Micco, Veronica; Gazol, Antonio; Gentilesca, Tiziana; Borghetti, Marco

    2017-04-01

    In recent decades, forest dieback episodes have been recorded worldwide affecting different tree species. In particular, several cases of widespread dieback and increased mortality rates have been described for Mediterranean oak (Quercus spp.) species. These dieback cases are revealing the high vulnerability of Mediterranean oaks, manifested as a loss in tree vigour (leaf shedding, canopy and shoot dieback), growth decline and sometimes tree death, as a consequence of temperatures rising at unprecedented rates and drying trends. However, in the wake of the so-called 'oak decline phenomenon', the attention on these species has generally been limited, perhaps because they are often regarded as well-adapted to the dry conditions typical of Mediterranean areas. Indeed, according to recent studies, the reduced size, the ability to sprout and the anisohydric behavior of Mediterranean oak species (reduced control of water loss and high stomatal conductance rates) would make them better adapted to withstand heat and drought stress then taller and non-sprouting isohydric species (e.g. conifer, with strict control of water loss by closing stomata). Here, we investigated the vulnerability of Mediterranean oaks by comparing neighboring living and recently dead trees in species with low (Q. pubescens), intermediate (Q. cerris, Q. frainetto) and high (Q. robur) sensitivity to water shortage. We analysed changes in tree vigour using tree-ring width and functional wood anatomical traits as proxies to search for early-warning signals of dieback, in connection with the main proposed dieback mechanisms (hydraulic failure and/or carbon starvation). We also modeled the probability of tree death as a function of tree size (diameter, height) by quantifying recent changes in growth and wood anatomy along tree-ring series. Contrary to the general concept that trees tend to experience increasing cavitation risk with increasing height, our studies show that smaller oaks are more prone to die than taller conspecifics. Further, irrespective of differences in drought sensitivity, dead trees showed lower radial-growth rates than surviving trees from 10 to 20 years prior to tree death. Contrastingly, differences in wood anatomical traits (vessel lumen size, vessel density) between dead and living trees were not always significant, being species-dependent. Our findings indicate that: (i) tree height is a proxy of the probability of drought-induced death, and (ii) recent growth trends constitute valuable early-warning signals of impending dieback and death in Mediterranean oak species.

  16. Molecular probes and microarrays for the detection of toxic algae in the genera Dinophysis and Phalacroma (Dinophyta).

    PubMed

    Edvardsen, Bente; Dittami, Simon M; Groben, René; Brubak, Sissel; Escalera, Laura; Rodríguez, Francisco; Reguera, Beatriz; Chen, Jixin; Medlin, Linda K

    2013-10-01

    Dinophysis and Phalacroma species containing diarrheic shellfish toxins and pectenotoxins occur in coastal temperate waters all year round and prevent the harvesting of mussels during several months each year in regions in Europe, Chile, Japan, and New Zealand. Toxicity varies among morphologically similar species, and a precise identification is needed for early warning systems. Molecular techniques using ribosomal DNA sequences offer a means to identify and detect precisely the potentially toxic species. We designed molecular probes targeting the 18S rDNA at the family and genus levels for Dinophysis and Phalacroma and at the species level for Dinophysis acuminata, Dinophysis acuta, and Dinophysis norvegica, the most commonly occurring, potentially toxic species of these genera in Western European waters. Dot blot hybridizations with polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-amplified rDNA from 17 microalgae were used to demonstrate probe specificity. The probes were modified along with other published fluorescence in situ hybridization and PCR probes and tested for a microarray platform within the MIDTAL project ( http://www.midtal.com ). The microarray was applied to field samples from Norway and Spain and compared to microscopic cell counts. These probes may be useful for early warning systems and monitoring and can also be used in population dynamic studies to distinguish species and life cycle stages, such as cysts, and their distribution in time and space.

  17. A Multi-Disciplinary Approach to Tsunami Disaster Prevention in Java, Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horns, D. M.; Hall, S.; Harris, R. A.

    2016-12-01

    The island of Java in Indonesia is the most densely populated island on earth, and is situated within one of the most tectonically active regions on the planet. Deadly tsunamis struck Java in 1994 and 2006. We conducted an assessment of tsunami hazards on the south coast of Java using a team of geologists, public health professionals, and disaster education specialists. The social science component included tsunami awareness surveys, education in communities and schools, evacuation drills, and evaluation. We found that the evacuation routes were generally appropriate for the local hazard, and that most people were aware of the routes and knew how to use them. However, functional tsunami warning systems were lacking in most areas and knowledge of natural warning signs was incomplete. We found that while knowledge of when to evacuate improved after our educational lesson, some incorrect beliefs persisted (e.g. misconceptions about types of earthquakes able to generate tsunamis and how far inland tsunamis can reach). There was a general over-reliance on government to alert when evacuation is needed as well as reluctance on the part of local leaders to take initiative to sound tsunami alerts. Many people on earth who are at risk of tsunamis live in areas where the government lacks resources to maintain a functional tsunami warning system. The best hope for protecting those people is direct education working within the local cultural belief system. Further collaboration is needed with government agencies to design consistent and repeated messages challenging misperceptions about when to evacuate and to encourage individuals to take personal responsibility based on natural warning signs.

  18. Development of a Low Cost Earthquake Early Warning System in Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Y. M.

    2017-12-01

    The National Taiwan University (NTU) developed an earthquake early warning (EEW) system for research purposes using low-cost accelerometers (P-Alert) since 2010. As of 2017, a total of 650 stations have been deployed and configured. The NTU system can provide earthquake information within 15 s of an earthquake occurrence. Thus, this system may provide early warnings for cities located more than 50 km from the epicenter. Additionally, the NTU system also has an onsite alert function that triggers a warning for incoming P-waves greater than a certain magnitude threshold, thus providing a 2-3 s lead time before peak ground acceleration (PGA) for regions close to an epicenter. Detailed shaking maps are produced by the NTU system within one or two minutes after an earthquake. Recently, a new module named ShakeAlarm has been developed. Equipped with real-time acceleration signals and the time-dependent anisotropic attenuation relationship of the PGA, ShakingAlarm can provide an accurate PGA estimation immediately before the arrival of the observed PGA. This unique advantage produces sufficient lead time for hazard assessment and emergency response, which is unavailable for traditional shakemap, which are based on only the PGA observed in real time. The performance of ShakingAlarm was tested with six M > 5.5 inland earthquakes from 2013 to 2016. Taking the 2016 M6.4 Meinong earthquake simulation as an example, the predicted PGA converges to a stable value and produces a predicted shake map and an isocontour map of the predicted PGA within 16 seconds of earthquake occurrence. Compared with traditional regional EEW system, ShakingAlarm can effectively identify possible damage regions and provide valuable early warning information (magnitude and PGA) for risk mitigation.

  19. Herbivore diet breadth mediates the cascading effects of carnivores in food webs

    PubMed Central

    Singer, Michael S.; Lichter-Marck, Isaac H.; Farkas, Timothy E.; Aaron, Eric; Whitney, Kenneth D.; Mooney, Kailen A.

    2014-01-01

    Predicting the impact of carnivores on plants has challenged community and food web ecologists for decades. At the same time, the role of predators in the evolution of herbivore dietary specialization has been an unresolved issue in evolutionary ecology. Here, we integrate these perspectives by testing the role of herbivore diet breadth as a predictor of top-down effects of avian predators on herbivores and plants in a forest food web. Using experimental bird exclosures to study a complex community of trees, caterpillars, and birds, we found a robust positive association between caterpillar diet breadth (phylodiversity of host plants used) and the strength of bird predation across 41 caterpillar and eight tree species. Dietary specialization was associated with increased enemy-free space for both camouflaged (n = 33) and warningly signaled (n = 8) caterpillar species. Furthermore, dietary specialization was associated with increased crypsis (camouflaged species only) and more stereotyped resting poses (camouflaged and warningly signaled species), but was unrelated to caterpillar body size. These dynamics in turn cascaded down to plants: a metaanalysis (n = 15 tree species) showed the beneficial effect of birds on trees (i.e., reduced leaf damage) decreased with the proportion of dietary specialist taxa composing a tree species’ herbivore fauna. We conclude that herbivore diet breadth is a key functional trait underlying the trophic effects of carnivores on both herbivores and plants. PMID:24979778

  20. 30 CFR 56.14201 - Conveyor start-up warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Conveyor start-up warnings. 56.14201 Section 56... Equipment Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 56.14201 Conveyor start-up warnings. (a) When the... audible warning shall be installed and operated to warn persons that the conveyor will be started. Within...

  1. 30 CFR 57.14201 - Conveyor start-up warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Conveyor start-up warnings. 57.14201 Section 57... Equipment Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 57.14201 Conveyor start-up warnings. (a) When the... audible warning shall be installed and operated to warn persons that the conveyor will be started. Within...

  2. 30 CFR 57.14201 - Conveyor start-up warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Conveyor start-up warnings. 57.14201 Section 57... Equipment Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 57.14201 Conveyor start-up warnings. (a) When the... audible warning shall be installed and operated to warn persons that the conveyor will be started. Within...

  3. 30 CFR 57.14201 - Conveyor start-up warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Conveyor start-up warnings. 57.14201 Section 57... Equipment Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 57.14201 Conveyor start-up warnings. (a) When the... audible warning shall be installed and operated to warn persons that the conveyor will be started. Within...

  4. 30 CFR 57.14201 - Conveyor start-up warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Conveyor start-up warnings. 57.14201 Section 57... Equipment Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 57.14201 Conveyor start-up warnings. (a) When the... audible warning shall be installed and operated to warn persons that the conveyor will be started. Within...

  5. 30 CFR 56.14201 - Conveyor start-up warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Conveyor start-up warnings. 56.14201 Section 56... Equipment Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 56.14201 Conveyor start-up warnings. (a) When the... audible warning shall be installed and operated to warn persons that the conveyor will be started. Within...

  6. 30 CFR 56.14201 - Conveyor start-up warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Conveyor start-up warnings. 56.14201 Section 56... Equipment Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 56.14201 Conveyor start-up warnings. (a) When the... audible warning shall be installed and operated to warn persons that the conveyor will be started. Within...

  7. 30 CFR 56.14201 - Conveyor start-up warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Conveyor start-up warnings. 56.14201 Section 56... Equipment Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 56.14201 Conveyor start-up warnings. (a) When the... audible warning shall be installed and operated to warn persons that the conveyor will be started. Within...

  8. 30 CFR 57.14201 - Conveyor start-up warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Conveyor start-up warnings. 57.14201 Section 57... Equipment Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 57.14201 Conveyor start-up warnings. (a) When the... audible warning shall be installed and operated to warn persons that the conveyor will be started. Within...

  9. 30 CFR 56.14201 - Conveyor start-up warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Conveyor start-up warnings. 56.14201 Section 56... Equipment Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 56.14201 Conveyor start-up warnings. (a) When the... audible warning shall be installed and operated to warn persons that the conveyor will be started. Within...

  10. Coral snake mimicry: live snakes not avoided by a mammalian predator.

    PubMed

    Beckers, Gabriel J L; Leenders, Twan A A M; Strijbosch, Henk

    1996-06-01

    The occurrence of coral snake coloration among unrelated venomous and non-venomous New World snake species has often been explained in terms of warning coloration and mimicry. The idea that snake predators would avoid coral snakes in nature seems widely established and is postulated in many discussions on coral snake mimicry. However, the few workers that have tested a potential aposematic function of the conspicuous colour pattern focused exclusively on behaviour of snake predators towards coloured abstract models. Here we report on behaviour of temporarily caged, wild coatis (Nasua narica) when confronted with co-occurring live snakes, among which were two species of venomous coral snakes. Five different types of responses have been observed, ranging from avoidance to predation, yet none of the coatis avoided either of the two coral snake species or other species resembling these. As in earlier studies coatis appeared to avoid coral snake models, our findings show that results from studies with abstract snake models cannot unconditionally serve as evidence for an aposematic function of coral snake coloration.

  11. Design of a reliable and operational landslide early warning system at regional scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calvello, Michele; Piciullo, Luca; Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Melillo, Massimo; Brunetti, Maria Teresa; Peruccacci, Silvia; Guzzetti, Fausto

    2017-04-01

    Landslide early warning systems at regional scale are used to warn authorities, civil protection personnel and the population about the occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides over wide areas, typically through the prediction and measurement of meteorological variables. A warning model for these systems must include a regional correlation law and a decision algorithm. A regional correlation law can be defined as a functional relationship between rainfall and landslides; it is typically based on thresholds of rainfall indicators (e.g., cumulated rainfall, rainfall duration) related to different exceedance probabilities of landslide occurrence. A decision algorithm can be defined as a set of assumptions and procedures linking rainfall thresholds to warning levels. The design and the employment of an operational and reliable early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides at regional scale depend on the identification of a reliable correlation law as well as on the definition of a suitable decision algorithm. Herein, a five-step process chain addressing both issues and based on rainfall thresholds is proposed; the procedure is tested in a landslide-prone area of the Campania region in southern Italy. To this purpose, a database of 96 shallow landslides triggered by rainfall in the period 2003-2010 and rainfall data gathered from 58 rain gauges are used. First, a set of rainfall thresholds are defined applying a frequentist method to reconstructed rainfall conditions triggering landslides in the test area. In the second step, several thresholds at different exceedance probabilities are evaluated, and different percentile combinations are selected for the activation of three warning levels. Subsequently, within steps three and four, the issuing of warning levels is based on the comparison, over time and for each combination, between the measured rainfall and the pre-defined warning level thresholds. Finally, the optimal percentile combination to be employed in the regional early warning system is selected evaluating the model performance in terms of success and error indicators by means of the "event, duration matrix, performance" (EDuMaP) method.

  12. Seasonal changes in predator community switch the direction of selection for prey defences

    PubMed Central

    Mappes, Johanna; Kokko, Hanna; Ojala, Katja; Lindström, Leena

    2014-01-01

    Insect communities consist of aposematic species with efficient warning colours against predation, as well as abundant examples of crypsis. To understand such coexistence, we here report results from a field experiment where relative survival of artificial larvae, varying in conspicuousness, was estimated in natural bird communities over an entire season. This takes advantage of natural variation in the proportion of naive predators: naivety peaks when young birds have just fledged. We show that the relative benefit of warning signals and crypsis changes accordingly. When naive birds are rare (early and late in the season), conspicuous warning signals improve survival, but conspicuousness becomes a disadvantage near the fledging time of birds. Such temporal structuring of predator–prey relationships facilitates the coexistence of diverse antipredatory strategies and helps explain two patterns we found in a 688-species community of Lepidoterans: larval warning signals remain rare and occur disproportionately often in seasons when predators are educated. PMID:25247589

  13. The diversification of Heliconius butterflies: what have we learned in 150 years?

    PubMed

    Merrill, R M; Dasmahapatra, K K; Davey, J W; Dell'Aglio, D D; Hanly, J J; Huber, B; Jiggins, C D; Joron, M; Kozak, K M; Llaurens, V; Martin, S H; Montgomery, S H; Morris, J; Nadeau, N J; Pinharanda, A L; Rosser, N; Thompson, M J; Vanjari, S; Wallbank, R W R; Yu, Q

    2015-08-01

    Research into Heliconius butterflies has made a significant contribution to evolutionary biology. Here, we review our understanding of the diversification of these butterflies, covering recent advances and a vast foundation of earlier work. Whereas no single group of organisms can be sufficient for understanding life's diversity, after years of intensive study, research into Heliconius has addressed a wide variety of evolutionary questions. We first discuss evidence for widespread gene flow between Heliconius species and what this reveals about the nature of species. We then address the evolution and diversity of warning patterns, both as the target of selection and with respect to their underlying genetic basis. The identification of major genes involved in mimetic shifts, and homology at these loci between distantly related taxa, has revealed a surprising predictability in the genetic basis of evolution. In the final sections, we consider the evolution of warning patterns, and Heliconius diversity more generally, within a broader context of ecological and sexual selection. We consider how different traits and modes of selection can interact and influence the evolution of reproductive isolation. © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

  14. Tasting the difference: do multiple defence chemicals interact in Müllerian mimicry?

    PubMed

    Skelhorn, John; Rowe, Candy

    2005-02-07

    Müllerian mimicry, where two unpalatable species share a warning pattern, is classically believed to be a form of mutualism, where the species involved share the cost of predator education. The evolutionary dynamics of Müllerian mimicry have recently become a controversial subject, after mathematical models have shown that if minor alterations are made to assumptions about the way in which predators learn and forget about unpalatable prey, this textbook case of mutualism may not be mutualistic at all. An underlying assumption of these models is that Müllerian mimics possess the same defence chemical. However, some Müllerian mimics are known to possess different defence chemicals. Using domestic chicks as predators and coloured crumbs flavoured with either the same or different unpalatable chemicals as prey, we provide evidence that two defence chemicals can interact to enhance predator learning and memory. This indicates that Müllerian mimics that possess different defence chemicals are better protected than those that share a single defence chemical. These data provide insight into how multiple defence chemicals are perceived by birds,and how they influence the way birds learn and remember warningly coloured prey. They highlight the importance of considering how different toxins in mimicry rings can interact in the evolution and maintenance of Müllerian mimicry and could help to explain the remarkable variation in chemical defences found within and between species.

  15. Developing and testing an Early Warning System for Non Indigenous Species and Ballast Water Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magaletti, Erika; Garaventa, Francesca; David, Matej; Castriota, Luca; Kraus, Romina; Luna, Gian Marco; Silvestri, Cecilia; Forte, Cosmo; Bastianini, Mauro; Falautano, Manuela; Maggio, Teresa; Rak, Giulietta; Gollasch, Stephan

    2018-03-01

    This paper describes the methodological approach used for the development of an Early Warning System (EWS) for Non Indigenous Species (NIS) and ballast water management and summarizes the results obtained. The specific goals of the EWS are firstly to warn vessels to prevent loading of ballast water when critical biological conditions occur in ports and surrounding areas i.e. mass development or blooms of Harmful Aquatic Organisms and Pathogens (HAOP). Secondly, to warn environmental and health authorities when NIS or pathogens are present in ports or surrounding areas to enable an early response and an implementation of remediation measures. The EWS is designed to be used for implementing various parallel obligations, by taking into consideration different legal scopes, associated information and decision-making needs. The EWS was elaborated, tested in the Adriatic Sea and illustrated by two case studies. Although the EWS was developed with an Adriatic Sea focus, it is presented in a format so that it may be used as a model when establishing similar systems in other locations. The role of the various actors is discussed and recommendations on further developments of the EWS are presented. It was concluded that the EWS is a suitable tool to reduce the spread of potentially harmful and ballast water mediated species.

  16. Air shower simulation for WASAVIES: warning system for aviation exposure to solar energetic particles.

    PubMed

    Sato, T; Kataoka, R; Yasuda, H; Yashiro, S; Kuwabara, T; Shiota, D; Kubo, Y

    2014-10-01

    WASAVIES, a warning system for aviation exposure to solar energetic particles (SEPs), is under development by collaboration between several institutes in Japan and the USA. It is designed to deterministically forecast the SEP fluxes incident on the atmosphere within 6 h after flare onset using the latest space weather research. To immediately estimate the aircrew doses from the obtained SEP fluxes, the response functions of the particle fluxes generated by the incidence of monoenergetic protons into the atmosphere were developed by performing air shower simulations using the Particle and Heavy Ion Transport code system. The accuracy of the simulation was well verified by calculating the increase count rates of a neutron monitor during a ground-level enhancement, combining the response function with the SEP fluxes measured by the PAMELA spectrometer. The response function will be implemented in WASAVIES and used to protect aircrews from additional SEP exposure. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  17. 49 CFR 234.257 - Warning system operation.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Warning system operation. 234.257 Section 234.257..., Inspection, and Testing Inspections and Tests § 234.257 Warning system operation. (a) Each highway-rail crossing warning system shall be tested to determine that it functions as intended when it is placed in...

  18. 14 CFR 125.187 - Landing gear: Aural warning device.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Landing gear: Aural warning device. 125.187... Requirements § 125.187 Landing gear: Aural warning device. (a) Except for airplanes that comply with the... aural warning device that functions continuously under the following conditions: (1) For airplanes with...

  19. 49 CFR 234.257 - Warning system operation.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Warning system operation. 234.257 Section 234.257..., Inspection, and Testing Inspections and Tests § 234.257 Warning system operation. (a) Each highway-rail crossing warning system shall be tested to determine that it functions as intended when it is placed in...

  20. 14 CFR 125.187 - Landing gear: Aural warning device.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Landing gear: Aural warning device. 125.187... Requirements § 125.187 Landing gear: Aural warning device. (a) Except for airplanes that comply with the... aural warning device that functions continuously under the following conditions: (1) For airplanes with...

  1. 14 CFR 125.187 - Landing gear: Aural warning device.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Landing gear: Aural warning device. 125.187... Requirements § 125.187 Landing gear: Aural warning device. (a) Except for airplanes that comply with the... aural warning device that functions continuously under the following conditions: (1) For airplanes with...

  2. 14 CFR 125.187 - Landing gear: Aural warning device.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Landing gear: Aural warning device. 125.187... Requirements § 125.187 Landing gear: Aural warning device. (a) Except for airplanes that comply with the... aural warning device that functions continuously under the following conditions: (1) For airplanes with...

  3. 14 CFR 125.187 - Landing gear: Aural warning device.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Landing gear: Aural warning device. 125.187... Requirements § 125.187 Landing gear: Aural warning device. (a) Except for airplanes that comply with the... aural warning device that functions continuously under the following conditions: (1) For airplanes with...

  4. An early warning and control system for urban, drinking water quality protection: China's experience.

    PubMed

    Hou, Dibo; Song, Xiaoxuan; Zhang, Guangxin; Zhang, Hongjian; Loaiciga, Hugo

    2013-07-01

    An event-driven, urban, drinking water quality early warning and control system (DEWS) is proposed to cope with China's urgent need for protecting its urban drinking water. The DEWS has a web service structure and provides users with water quality monitoring functions, water quality early warning functions, and water quality accident decision-making functions. The DEWS functionality is guided by the principles of control theory and risk assessment as applied to the feedback control of urban water supply systems. The DEWS has been deployed in several large Chinese cities and found to perform well insofar as water quality early warning and emergency decision-making is concerned. This paper describes a DEWS for urban water quality protection that has been developed in China.

  5. Automated Safety Warning Controller (ASWC) Phase I - Proof of Concept

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2010-07-07

    Automated warning systems are not a new concept within the transportation community. There are several projects on the state highway that use the concept of a roadway sensor initiating some type of motorist warning. To date, all of these systems are ...

  6. Potential economic value of drought information to support early warning in Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quiroga, S.; Iglesias, A.; Diz, A.; Garrote, L.

    2012-04-01

    We present a methodology to estimate the economic value of advanced climate information for food production in Africa under climate change scenarios. The results aim to facilitate better choices in water resources management. The methodology includes 4 sequential steps. First two contrasting management strategies (with and without early warning) are defined. Second, the associated impacts of the management actions are estimated by calculating the effect of drought in crop productivity under climate change scenarios. Third, the optimal management option is calculated as a function of the drought information and risk aversion of potential information users. Finally we use these optimal management simulations to compute the economic value of enhanced water allocation rules to support stable food production in Africa. Our results show how a timely response to climate variations can help reduce loses in food production. The proposed framework is developed within the Dewfora project (Early warning and forecasting systems to predict climate related drought vulnerability and risk in Africa) that aims to improve the knowledge on drought forecasting, warning and mitigation, and advance the understanding of climate related vulnerability to drought and to develop a prototype operational forecasting.

  7. On the use of Bayesian decision theory for issuing natural hazard warnings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Economou, T.; Stephenson, D. B.; Rougier, J. C.; Neal, R. A.; Mylne, K. R.

    2016-10-01

    Warnings for natural hazards improve societal resilience and are a good example of decision-making under uncertainty. A warning system is only useful if well defined and thus understood by stakeholders. However, most operational warning systems are heuristic: not formally or transparently defined. Bayesian decision theory provides a framework for issuing warnings under uncertainty but has not been fully exploited. Here, a decision theoretic framework is proposed for hazard warnings. The framework allows any number of warning levels and future states of nature, and a mathematical model for constructing the necessary loss functions for both generic and specific end-users is described. The approach is illustrated using one-day ahead warnings of daily severe precipitation over the UK, and compared to the current decision tool used by the UK Met Office. A probability model is proposed to predict precipitation, given ensemble forecast information, and loss functions are constructed for two generic stakeholders: an end-user and a forecaster. Results show that the Met Office tool issues fewer high-level warnings compared with our system for the generic end-user, suggesting the former may not be suitable for risk averse end-users. In addition, raw ensemble forecasts are shown to be unreliable and result in higher losses from warnings.

  8. On the use of Bayesian decision theory for issuing natural hazard warnings.

    PubMed

    Economou, T; Stephenson, D B; Rougier, J C; Neal, R A; Mylne, K R

    2016-10-01

    Warnings for natural hazards improve societal resilience and are a good example of decision-making under uncertainty. A warning system is only useful if well defined and thus understood by stakeholders. However, most operational warning systems are heuristic: not formally or transparently defined. Bayesian decision theory provides a framework for issuing warnings under uncertainty but has not been fully exploited. Here, a decision theoretic framework is proposed for hazard warnings. The framework allows any number of warning levels and future states of nature, and a mathematical model for constructing the necessary loss functions for both generic and specific end-users is described. The approach is illustrated using one-day ahead warnings of daily severe precipitation over the UK, and compared to the current decision tool used by the UK Met Office. A probability model is proposed to predict precipitation, given ensemble forecast information, and loss functions are constructed for two generic stakeholders: an end-user and a forecaster. Results show that the Met Office tool issues fewer high-level warnings compared with our system for the generic end-user, suggesting the former may not be suitable for risk averse end-users. In addition, raw ensemble forecasts are shown to be unreliable and result in higher losses from warnings.

  9. On the use of Bayesian decision theory for issuing natural hazard warnings

    PubMed Central

    Stephenson, D. B.; Rougier, J. C.; Neal, R. A.; Mylne, K. R.

    2016-01-01

    Warnings for natural hazards improve societal resilience and are a good example of decision-making under uncertainty. A warning system is only useful if well defined and thus understood by stakeholders. However, most operational warning systems are heuristic: not formally or transparently defined. Bayesian decision theory provides a framework for issuing warnings under uncertainty but has not been fully exploited. Here, a decision theoretic framework is proposed for hazard warnings. The framework allows any number of warning levels and future states of nature, and a mathematical model for constructing the necessary loss functions for both generic and specific end-users is described. The approach is illustrated using one-day ahead warnings of daily severe precipitation over the UK, and compared to the current decision tool used by the UK Met Office. A probability model is proposed to predict precipitation, given ensemble forecast information, and loss functions are constructed for two generic stakeholders: an end-user and a forecaster. Results show that the Met Office tool issues fewer high-level warnings compared with our system for the generic end-user, suggesting the former may not be suitable for risk averse end-users. In addition, raw ensemble forecasts are shown to be unreliable and result in higher losses from warnings. PMID:27843399

  10. DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Gordon, A.; Suzuki, D.

    The authors of this book warn us of the transition we will need to make if we are to arrive safely in the next century. They have written a book about us as a species: our shortsightedness, our failure to read the warnings, our inability of grasp the significance of our actions. The power of the book lies in the consensus of the many voices, those of scientists and other scholars, that speak through it. The components of our predicament global warming, soil erosion, acid rain, species depletion, ozone damage, rainforest destruction, overpopulation are quantified with authority.

  11. 49 CFR 234.205 - Operating characteristics of warning system apparatus.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Operating characteristics of warning system... Maintenance Standards § 234.205 Operating characteristics of warning system apparatus. Operating... system shall be maintained in accordance with the limits within which the system is designed to operate. ...

  12. 49 CFR 234.205 - Operating characteristics of warning system apparatus.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Operating characteristics of warning system... Maintenance Standards § 234.205 Operating characteristics of warning system apparatus. Operating... system shall be maintained in accordance with the limits within which the system is designed to operate. ...

  13. 49 CFR 234.205 - Operating characteristics of warning system apparatus.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Operating characteristics of warning system... Maintenance Standards § 234.205 Operating characteristics of warning system apparatus. Operating... system shall be maintained in accordance with the limits within which the system is designed to operate. ...

  14. Decomposing functional trait associations in a Chinese subtropical forest

    PubMed Central

    Pei, Kequan; Kéry, Marc; Niklaus, Pascal A.; Schmid, Bernhard

    2017-01-01

    Functional traits, properties of organisms correlated with ecological performance, play a central role in plant community assembly and functioning. To some extents, functional traits vary in concert, reflecting fundamental ecological strategies. While “trait syndromes” characteristic of e.g. fast-growing, early-successional vs. competitive, late-successional species are recognized in principle, less is known about the environmental and genetic factors at the source of trait variation and covariation within plant communities. We studied the three leaf traits leaf half-life (LHL), leaf mass per area (LMA) and nitrogen concentration in green leaves (Ngreen) and the wood trait wood density (WD) in 294 individuals belonging to 45 tree or shrub species in a Chinese subtropical forest from September 2006 to January 2009. Using multilevel ANOVA and decomposition of sums of products, we estimated the amount of trait variation and covariation among species (mainly genetic causes), i.e. plant functional type (deciduous vs. evergreen species), growth form (tree vs. shrub species), family/genus/species differences, and within species (mainly environmental causes), i.e. individual and season. For single traits, the variation between functional types and among species within functional types was large, but only LMA and Ngreen varied significantly among families and thus showed phylogenetic signal. Trait variation among individuals within species was small, but large temporal variation due to seasonal effects was found within individuals. We did not find any trait variation related to soil conditions underneath the measured individuals. For pairs of traits, variation between functional types and among species within functional types was large, reflecting a strong evolutionary coordination of the traits, with LMA, LHL and WD being positively correlated among each other and negatively with Ngreen. This integration of traits was consistent with a putative stem-leaf economics spectrum ranging from deciduous species with thin, high-nitrogen leaves and low-density wood to evergreen species with thick, low-nitrogen leaves and dense wood and was not influenced by phylogenetic history. Trait coordination within species was weak, allowing individual trees to deviate from the interspecific trait coordination and thus respond flexibly to environmental heterogeneity. Our findings suggest that within a single woody plant community variation and covariation in functional traits allows a large number of species to co-exist and cover a broad spectrum of multivariate niche space, which in turn may increase total resource extraction by the community and community functioning. PMID:28419169

  15. Indications and Warning Analysis Management System IWAMS. A Design Study

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-03-01

    First, we must understand the process of warning analysis; we must develop an -;adequate functional model. In the present research we have divided ...and changeable). (In subsequent discussions, considerable attention will be focused on these issues.) -77-7-12Z ’m,77+-U 21 WARNING ANALYSIS MODEL...have charted limitations in man’s memory, attention span, reasoning capability and other cognitive functions. These limitations considerably affect man’s

  16. What initiates speciation in passion-vine butterflies?

    PubMed Central

    McMillan, W. Owen; Jiggins, Chris D.; Mallet, James

    1997-01-01

    Studies of the continuum between geographic races and species provide the clearest insights into the causes of speciation. Here we report on mate choice and hybrid viability experiments in a pair of warningly colored butterflies, Heliconius erato and Heliconius himera, that maintain their genetic integrity in the face of hybridization. Hybrid sterility and inviability have been unimportant in the early stages of speciation of these two Heliconius. We find no evidence of reduced fecundity, egg hatch, or larval survival nor increases in developmental time in three generations of hybrid crosses. Instead, speciation in this pair appears to have been catalyzed by the association of strong mating preferences with divergence in warning coloration and ecology. In mate choice experiments, matings between the two species are a tenth as likely as matings within species. F1 hybrids of both sexes mate frequently with both pure forms. However, male F1 progeny from crosses between H. himera mothers and H. erato fathers have somewhat reduced mating success. The strong barrier to gene flow provided by divergence in mate preference is probably enhanced by frequency-dependent predation against hybrids similar to the type known to occur across interracial hybrid zones of H. erato. In addition, the transition between this pair falls at the boundary between wet and dry forest, and rare hybrids may also be selected against because they are poorly adapted to either biotope. These results add to a growing body of evidence that challenge the importance of genomic incompatibilities in the earliest stages of speciation. PMID:9238028

  17. Research to Operations: From Point Positions, Earthquake and Tsunami Modeling to GNSS-augmented Tsunami Early Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stough, T.; Green, D. S.

    2017-12-01

    This collaborative research to operations demonstration brings together the data and algorithms from NASA research, technology, and applications-funded projects to deliver relevant data streams, algorithms, predictive models, and visualization tools to the NOAA National Tsunami Warning Center (NTWC) and Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC). Using real-time GNSS data and models in an operational environment, we will test and evaluate an augmented capability for tsunami early warning. Each of three research groups collect data from a selected network of real-time GNSS stations, exchange data consisting of independently processed 1 Hz station displacements, and merge the output into a single, more accurate and reliable set. The resulting merged data stream is delivered from three redundant locations to the TWCs with a latency of 5-10 seconds. Data from a number of seismogeodetic stations with collocated GPS and accelerometer instruments are processed for displacements and seismic velocities and also delivered. Algorithms for locating and determining the magnitude of earthquakes as well as algorithms that compute the source function of a potential tsunami using this new data stream are included in the demonstration. The delivered data, algorithms, models and tools are hosted on NOAA-operated machines at both warning centers, and, once tested, the results will be evaluated for utility in improving the speed and accuracy of tsunami warnings. This collaboration has the potential to dramatically improve the speed and accuracy of the TWCs local tsunami information over the current seismometer-only based methods. In our first year of this work, we have established and deployed an architecture for data movement and algorithm installation at the TWC's. We are addressing data quality issues and porting algorithms into the TWCs operating environment. Our initial module deliveries will focus on estimating moment magnitude (Mw) from Peak Ground Displacement (PGD), within 2-3 minutes of the event, and coseismic displacements converging to static offsets. We will also develop visualizations of module outputs tailored to the operational environment. In the context of this work, we will also discuss this research to operations approach and other opportunities within the NASA Applied Science Disaster Program.

  18. The role of predators in maintaining the geographic organization of aposematic signals.

    PubMed

    Chouteau, Mathieu; Angers, Bernard

    2011-12-01

    Selective predation of aposematic signals is expected to promote phenotypic uniformity. But while these signals may be uniform within a population, numerous species display impressive variations in warning signals among adjacent populations. Predators from different localities who learn to avoid distinct signals while performing intense selection on others are thus expected to maintain such a geographic organization. We tested this assumption by placing clay frog models, representing distinct color morphs of the Peruvian poison dart frog Ranitomeya imitator and a nonconspicuous frog, reciprocally between adjacent localities. In each locality, avian predators were able to discriminate between warning signals; the adjacent exotic morph experienced up to four times more attacks than the local one and two times more than the nonconspicuous phenotype. Moreover, predation attempts on the exotic morph quickly decreased to almost nil, suggesting rapid learning. This experiment offers direct evidence for the existence of different predator communities performing localized homogenizing selection on distinct aposematic signals.

  19. Effects of physician counseling on the smoking behavior of asbestos-exposed workers

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Li, V.C.; Kim, Y.J.; Ewart, C.K.

    Physician antismoking advice has been shown to increase smoking cessation, particularly among patients who have medical problems or perceive themselves to be at risk. The present study tested three hypotheses: (a) providing 3 to 5 min of behavioral counseling regarding a cessation strategy would be more effective than simply warning the smoker to quit smoking; (b) smokers with abnormal pulmonary function would be more likely to comply with medical advice than would smokers with normal pulmonary function; and (c) that smokers with abnormal pulmonary function who receive behavioral counseling would be the group most likely to achieve prolonged abstinence. Asbestos-exposedmore » smoking men undergoing screening in a mandated program for naval shipyard workers were categorized as having normal or abnormal pulmonary status on the basis of chest X ray and pulmonary function tests (PFT). They were then randomly assigned within PFT categories to receive either a simple warning or 3 to 5 min of behavioral cessation counseling from the physician who gave them the results of their pulmonary tests. Subjects smoking status was evaluated at 3- and 11-month intervals following the physician intervention. Smokers who received behavioral counseling were more likely to quit and remain abstinent over the 11-month period (8.4% abstinent) than were smokers given a minimal warning (3.6% abstinent). Prolonged abstinence rates among abnormal PFT subjects (3.7%) did not differ from those of normals (5.9%). The group with normal PFT who received behavioral counseling achieved the highest level of abstinence (9.5%).« less

  20. [Evaluation and analysis of monitoring and early warning functions of the occupational disease reporting system in China].

    PubMed

    Zhu, Xiaojun; Li, Tao; Liu, Mengxuan

    2015-06-01

    To evaluate the monitoring and early warning functions of the occupational disease reporting system right now in China, and to analyze their influencing factors. An improved audit tool (ODIT) was used to score the monitoring and early warning functions with a total score of 10. The nine indices were completeness of information on the reporting form, coverage of the reporting system, accessibility of criteria or guidelines for diagnosis, education and training for physicians, completeness of the reporting system, statistical methods, investigation of special cases, release of monitoring information, and release of early warning information. According to the evaluation, the occupational disease reporting system in China had a score of 5.5 in monitoring existing occupational diseases with a low score for release of monitoring information; the reporting system had a score of 6.5 in early warning of newly occurring occupational diseases with low scores for education and training for physicians as well as completeness of the reporting system. The occupational disease reporting system in China still does not have full function in monitoring and early warning. It is the education and participation of physicians from general hospitals in the diagnosis and treatment of occupational diseases and suspected occupational diseases that need to be enhanced. In addition, the problem of monitoring the incidence of occupational diseases needs to be solved as soon as possible.

  1. The design of the light-flash warning light

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Junli

    2018-05-01

    In today's society, the warning light has been used widely in people's daily life and various industries and agricultures. It is important to protect people's life and security. Light-flashing warning light is a kind of warning light control equipment which can control warning light automatically open and work in the state of blinking after dark, and it can automatically shut down after the dawn. It can achieve the flashing light automatic control and dual function. At present, light-flashing warning lights are mainly used in the projects of municipal construction. It is helpful to warn people and vehicles that passed in the construction site and ensure personal safety through using light-flashing warning light. Its design is simple, its performance is stable and it is also very convince to use it.

  2. Temporal turnover and the maintenance of diversity in ecological assemblages

    PubMed Central

    Magurran, Anne E.; Henderson, Peter A.

    2010-01-01

    Temporal variation in species abundances occurs in all ecological communities. Here, we explore the role that this temporal turnover plays in maintaining assemblage diversity. We investigate a three-decade time series of estuarine fishes and show that the abundances of the individual species fluctuate asynchronously around their mean levels. We then use a time-series modelling approach to examine the consequences of different patterns of turnover, by asking how the correlation between the abundance of a species in a given year and its abundance in the previous year influences the structure of the overall assemblage. Classical diversity measures that ignore species identities reveal that the observed assemblage structure will persist under all but the most extreme conditions. However, metrics that track species identities indicate a narrower set of turnover scenarios under which the predicted assemblage resembles the natural one. Our study suggests that species diversity metrics are insensitive to change and that measures that track species ranks may provide better early warning that an assemblage is being perturbed. It also highlights the need to incorporate temporal turnover in investigations of assemblage structure and function. PMID:20980310

  3. Spacecraft design sensitivity for a disaster warning satellite system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Maloy, J. E.; Provencher, C. E.; Leroy, B. E.; Braley, R. C.; Shumaker, H. A.

    1977-01-01

    A disaster warning satellite (DWS) is described for warning the general public of impending natural catastrophes. The concept is responsive to NOAA requirements and maximizes the use of ATS-6 technology. Upon completion of concept development, the study was extended to establishing the sensitivity of the DWSS spacecraft power, weight, and cost to variations in both warning and conventional communications functions. The results of this sensitivity analysis are presented.

  4. The Global Emergency Observation and Warning System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bukley, Angelia P.; Mulqueen, John A.

    1994-01-01

    Based on an extensive characterization of natural hazards, and an evaluation of their impacts on humanity, a set of functional technical requirements for a global warning and relief system was developed. Since no technological breakthroughs are required to implement a global system capable of performing the functions required to provide sufficient information for prevention, preparedness, warning, and relief from natural disaster effects, a system is proposed which would combine the elements of remote sensing, data processing, information distribution, and communications support on a global scale for disaster mitigation.

  5. Owls as biomonitors of environmental contamination

    Treesearch

    Steven R. Sheffield

    1997-01-01

    Much like the caged canary used by miners, a plethora of wildlife species have been promoted as biomonitors of environmental contamination. These species provide an "early warning system" for toxic contaminants in the environment. Species promoted as useful biomonitors share many common life history characters, such as wide distribution, territorial, non-...

  6. 14 CFR 91.1415 - CAMP: Mechanical reliability reports.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... failure, malfunction, or defect in an aircraft concerning— (1) Fires during flight and whether the related fire-warning system functioned properly; (2) Fires during flight not protected by related fire-warning system; (3) False fire-warning during flight; (4) An exhaust system that causes damage during flight to...

  7. 14 CFR 91.1415 - CAMP: Mechanical reliability reports.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... failure, malfunction, or defect in an aircraft concerning— (1) Fires during flight and whether the related fire-warning system functioned properly; (2) Fires during flight not protected by related fire-warning system; (3) False fire-warning during flight; (4) An exhaust system that causes damage during flight to...

  8. Coastal Amplification Laws for the French Tsunami Warning Center: Numerical Modeling and Fast Estimate of Tsunami Wave Heights Along the French Riviera

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gailler, A.; Hébert, H.; Schindelé, F.; Reymond, D.

    2017-11-01

    Tsunami modeling tools in the French tsunami Warning Center operational context provide rapidly derived warning levels with a dimensionless variable at basin scale. A new forecast method based on coastal amplification laws has been tested to estimate the tsunami onshore height, with a focus on the French Riviera test-site (Nice area). This fast prediction tool provides a coastal tsunami height distribution, calculated from the numerical simulation of the deep ocean tsunami amplitude and using a transfer function derived from the Green's law. Due to a lack of tsunami observations in the western Mediterranean basin, coastal amplification parameters are here defined regarding high resolution nested grids simulations. The preliminary results for the Nice test site on the basis of nine historical and synthetic sources show a good agreement with the time-consuming high resolution modeling: the linear approximation is obtained within 1 min in general and provides estimates within a factor of two in amplitude, although the resonance effects in harbors and bays are not reproduced. In Nice harbor especially, variation in tsunami amplitude is something that cannot be really assessed because of the magnitude range and maximum energy azimuth of possible events to account for. However, this method is well suited for a fast first estimate of the coastal tsunami threat forecast.

  9. Coastal Amplification Laws for the French Tsunami Warning Center: Numerical Modeling and Fast Estimate of Tsunami Wave Heights Along the French Riviera

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gailler, A.; Hébert, H.; Schindelé, F.; Reymond, D.

    2018-04-01

    Tsunami modeling tools in the French tsunami Warning Center operational context provide rapidly derived warning levels with a dimensionless variable at basin scale. A new forecast method based on coastal amplification laws has been tested to estimate the tsunami onshore height, with a focus on the French Riviera test-site (Nice area). This fast prediction tool provides a coastal tsunami height distribution, calculated from the numerical simulation of the deep ocean tsunami amplitude and using a transfer function derived from the Green's law. Due to a lack of tsunami observations in the western Mediterranean basin, coastal amplification parameters are here defined regarding high resolution nested grids simulations. The preliminary results for the Nice test site on the basis of nine historical and synthetic sources show a good agreement with the time-consuming high resolution modeling: the linear approximation is obtained within 1 min in general and provides estimates within a factor of two in amplitude, although the resonance effects in harbors and bays are not reproduced. In Nice harbor especially, variation in tsunami amplitude is something that cannot be really assessed because of the magnitude range and maximum energy azimuth of possible events to account for. However, this method is well suited for a fast first estimate of the coastal tsunami threat forecast.

  10. Framing Indoor Tanning Warning Messages to Reduce Skin Cancer Risks Among Young Women: Implications for Research and Policy.

    PubMed

    Mays, Darren; Tercyak, Kenneth P

    2015-08-01

    We investigated the impact of indoor tanning device warnings that communicate the risks associated with indoor tanning (i.e., loss framed) or the benefits of avoiding indoor tanning (i.e., gain framed). A convenience sample of non-Hispanic White women aged 18 to 30 years who tanned indoors at least once in the past year (n = 682) participated in a within-subjects experiment. Participants completed baseline measures and reported indoor tanning intentions and intentions to quit indoor tanning in response to 5 warning messages in random order. A text-only control warning was based on Food and Drug Administration-required warnings for indoor tanning devices. Experimental warnings included graphic content and were either gain or loss framed. In multivariable analyses, gain-framed warnings did not differ from the control warning on women's intentions to tan indoors, but they prompted stronger intentions to quit than the control message. Loss-framed warnings significantly reduced intentions to tan indoors and increased intentions to quit indoor tanning compared with control and gain-framed warnings. The public health impact of indoor tanning device warnings can be enhanced by incorporating graphic content and leveraging gain- and loss-framed messaging.

  11. 75 FR 33666 - Parts and Accessories Necessary for Safe Operation; Applications for an Exemption From Con-Way...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-06-14

    ...), and Iteris, Inc. (Iteris) regarding the placement of lane departure warning system sensors at the top... mounting of the lane departure warning system sensors near the top of the windshield, and within the swept... departure warning system would be used to alert a driver when he or she unintentionally drifts out of their...

  12. 77 FR 5058 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request; Automatic...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-02-01

    ... for OMB Review; Comment Request; Automatic Fire Sensor and Warning Devices Systems; Examination and..., ``Automatic Fire Sensor and Warning Devices Systems,'' to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for review... and warning device systems are maintained and calibrated in order to function properly at all times...

  13. Feasibility of collision warning, precision approach and landing using GPS, volume 1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ruedger, W. H.

    1981-01-01

    The use of GPS, with an appropriately configured data link, to enhance general aviation avionic functions encountered in the terminal area and on approach was investigated with emphasis on approach and landing guidance and collision warning. The feasibility of using differential GPS to obtain the precision navigation solutions required for landing was studied. Results show that the concept is sound. An experimental program was developed to demonstrate this concept. The collision avoidance/warning concept was examined through the development of a functional system specification.

  14. Evaluation of NDOR's actuated advance warning systems.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2011-12-01

    "Driver behavior within the dilemma zone can be a major safety concern at high-speed signalized intersections. The : Nebraska Department of Roads (NDOR) has developed and implemented an actuated advance warning (AAW) dilemma : zone protection system....

  15. The vomeronasal organ mediates interspecies defensive behaviors through detection of protein pheromone homologs.

    PubMed

    Papes, Fabio; Logan, Darren W; Stowers, Lisa

    2010-05-14

    Potential predators emit uncharacterized chemosignals that warn receiving species of danger. Neurons that sense these stimuli remain unknown. Here we show that detection and processing of fear-evoking odors emitted from cat, rat, and snake require the function of sensory neurons in the vomeronasal organ. To investigate the molecular nature of the sensory cues emitted by predators, we isolated the salient ligands from two species using a combination of innate behavioral assays in naive receiving animals, calcium imaging, and c-Fos induction. Surprisingly, the defensive behavior-promoting activity released by other animals is encoded by species-specific ligands belonging to the major urinary protein (Mup) family, homologs of aggression-promoting mouse pheromones. We show that recombinant Mup proteins are sufficient to activate sensory neurons and initiate defensive behavior similarly to native odors. This co-option of existing sensory mechanisms provides a molecular solution to the difficult problem of evolving a variety of species-specific molecular detectors. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. The vomeronasal organ mediates interspecies defensive behaviors through detection of protein pheromone homologs

    PubMed Central

    Papes, Fabio; Logan, Darren W.; Stowers, Lisa

    2010-01-01

    Summary Potential predators emit uncharacterized chemosignals that warn receiving species of danger. Neurons that sense these stimuli remain unknown. Here we show that detection and processing of fear-evoking odors emitted from cat, rat, and snake require the function of sensory neurons in the vomeronasal organ. To investigate the molecular nature of the sensory cues emitted by predators, we isolated the salient ligands from two species using a combination of innate behavioral assays in naïve receiving animals, calcium imaging, and cFos induction. Surprisingly, the defensive behavior-promoting activity released by other animals is encoded by species-specific ligands belonging to the major urinary protein (Mup) family, homologs of aggression-promoting mouse pheromones. We show that recombinant Mup proteins are sufficient to activate sensory neurons and initiate defensive behavior similar to native odors. This co-option of existing sensory mechanisms provides a molecular solution to the difficult problem of evolving a variety of species-specific molecular detectors. PMID:20478258

  17. No evidence of critical slowing down in two endangered Hawaiian honeycreepers

    PubMed Central

    Camp, Richard J.; Reed, J. Michael

    2017-01-01

    There is debate about the current population trends and predicted short-term fates of the endangered forest birds, Hawai`i Creeper (Loxops mana) and Hawai`i `Ākepa (L. coccineus). Using long-term population size estimates, some studies report forest bird populations as stable or increasing, while other studies report signs of population decline or impending extinction associated with introduced Japanese White-eye (Zosterops japonicus) increase. Reliable predictors of impending population collapse, well before the collapse begins, have been reported in simulations and microcosm experiments. In these studies, statistical indicators of critical slowing down, a phenomenon characterized by longer recovery rates after population size perturbation, are reported to be early warning signals of an impending regime shift observable prior to the tipping point. While the conservation applications of these metrics are commonly discussed, early warning signal detection methods are rarely applied to population size data from natural populations, so their efficacy and utility in species management remain unclear. We evaluated two time series of state-space abundance estimates (1987–2012) from Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Hawai`i to test for evidence of early warning signals of impending population collapse for the Hawai`i Creeper and Hawai`i `Ākepa. We looked for signals throughout the time series, and prior to 2000, when white-eye abundance began increasing. We found no evidence for either species of increasing variance, autocorrelation, or skewness, which are commonly reported early warning signals. We calculated linear rather than ordinary skewness because the latter is biased, particularly for small sample sizes. Furthermore, we identified break-points in trends over time for both endangered species, indicating shifts in slopes away from strongly increasing trends, but they were only weakly supported by Bayesian change-point analyses (i.e., no step-wise changes in abundance). The break-point and change-point test results, in addition to the early warning signal analyses, support that the two populations do not appear to show signs of critical slowing down or decline. PMID:29131835

  18. No evidence of critical slowing down in two endangered Hawaiian honeycreepers

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rozek, Jessica C.; Camp, Richard J.; Reed, J. Michael

    2017-01-01

    There is debate about the current population trends and predicted short-term fates of the endangered forest birds, Hawai`i Creeper (Loxops mana) and Hawai`i `Ākepa (L. coccineus). Using long-term population size estimates, some studies report forest bird populations as stable or increasing, while other studies report signs of population decline or impending extinction associated with introduced Japanese White-eye (Zosterops japonicus) increase. Reliable predictors of impending population collapse, well before the collapse begins, have been reported in simulations and microcosm experiments. In these studies, statistical indicators of critical slowing down, a phenomenon characterized by longer recovery rates after population size perturbation, are reported to be early warning signals of an impending regime shift observable prior to the tipping point. While the conservation applications of these metrics are commonly discussed, early warning signal detection methods are rarely applied to population size data from natural populations, so their efficacy and utility in species management remain unclear. We evaluated two time series of state-space abundance estimates (1987–2012) from Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Hawai`i to test for evidence of early warning signals of impending population collapse for the Hawai`i Creeper and Hawai`i `Ākepa. We looked for signals throughout the time series, and prior to 2000, when white-eye abundance began increasing. We found no evidence for either species of increasing variance, autocorrelation, or skewness, which are commonly reported early warning signals. We calculated linear rather than ordinary skewness because the latter is biased, particularly for small sample sizes. Furthermore, we identified break-points in trends over time for both endangered species, indicating shifts in slopes away from strongly increasing trends, but they were only weakly supported by Bayesian change-point analyses (i.e., no step-wise changes in abundance). The break-point and change-point test results, in addition to the early warning signal analyses, support that the two populations do not appear to show signs of critical slowing down or decline.

  19. Framing Indoor Tanning Warning Messages to Reduce Skin Cancer Risks Among Young Women: Implications for Research and Policy

    PubMed Central

    Tercyak, Kenneth P.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives. We investigated the impact of indoor tanning device warnings that communicate the risks associated with indoor tanning (i.e., loss framed) or the benefits of avoiding indoor tanning (i.e., gain framed). Methods. A convenience sample of non-Hispanic White women aged 18 to 30 years who tanned indoors at least once in the past year (n = 682) participated in a within-subjects experiment. Participants completed baseline measures and reported indoor tanning intentions and intentions to quit indoor tanning in response to 5 warning messages in random order. A text-only control warning was based on Food and Drug Administration–required warnings for indoor tanning devices. Experimental warnings included graphic content and were either gain or loss framed. Results. In multivariable analyses, gain-framed warnings did not differ from the control warning on women’s intentions to tan indoors, but they prompted stronger intentions to quit than the control message. Loss-framed warnings significantly reduced intentions to tan indoors and increased intentions to quit indoor tanning compared with control and gain-framed warnings. Conclusions. The public health impact of indoor tanning device warnings can be enhanced by incorporating graphic content and leveraging gain- and loss-framed messaging. PMID:26066932

  20. Timing of new black box warnings and withdrawals for prescription medications.

    PubMed

    Lasser, Karen E; Allen, Paul D; Woolhandler, Steffie J; Himmelstein, David U; Wolfe, Sidney M; Bor, David H

    2002-05-01

    Recently approved drugs may be more likely to have unrecognized adverse drug reactions (ADRs) than established drugs, but no recent studies have examined how frequently postmarketing surveillance identifies important ADRs. To determine the frequency and timing of discovery of new ADRs described in black box warnings or necessitating withdrawal of the drug from the market. Examination of the Physicians' Desk Reference for all new chemical entities approved by the US Food and Drug Administration between 1975 and 1999, and all drugs withdrawn from the market between 1975 and 2000 (with or without a prior black box warning). Frequency of and time to a new black box warning or drug withdrawal. A total of 548 new chemical entities were approved in 1975-1999; 56 (10.2%) acquired a new black box warning or were withdrawn. Forty-five drugs (8.2%) acquired 1 or more black box warnings and 16 (2.9%) were withdrawn from the market. In Kaplan-Meier analyses, the estimated probability of acquiring a new black box warning or being withdrawn from the market over 25 years was 20%. Eighty-one major changes to drug labeling in the Physicians' Desk Reference occurred including the addition of 1 or more black box warnings per drug, or drug withdrawal. In Kaplan-Meier analyses, half of these changes occurred within 7 years of drug introduction; half of the withdrawals occurred within 2 years. Serious ADRs commonly emerge after Food and Drug Administration approval. The safety of new agents cannot be known with certainty until a drug has been on the market for many years.

  1. Effects of lead time of verbal collision warning messages on driving behavior in connected vehicle settings.

    PubMed

    Wan, Jingyan; Wu, Changxu; Zhang, Yiqi

    2016-09-01

    Under the connected vehicle environment, vehicles will be able to exchange traffic information with roadway infrastructure and other vehicles. With such information, collision warning systems (CWSs) will be able to warn drivers with potentially hazardous situations within or out of sight and reduce collision accidents. The lead time of warning messages is a crucial factor in determining the effectiveness of CWSs in the prevention of traffic accidents. Accordingly, it is necessary to understand the effects of lead time on driving behaviors and explore the optimal lead time in various collision scenarios. The present driving simulator experiment studied the effects of controlled lead time at 16 levels (predetermined time headway from the subject vehicle to the collision location when the warning message broadcasted to a driver) on driving behaviors in various collision scenarios. Maximum effectiveness of warning messages was achieved when the controlled lead time was within the range of 5s to 8s. Specifically, the controlled lead time ranging from 4s to 8s led to the optimal safety benefit; and the controlled lead time ranging from 5s to 8s led to more gradual braking and shorter reaction time. Furthermore, a trapezoidal distribution of warning effectiveness was found by building a statistic model using curve estimation considering lead time, lifetime driving experience, and driving speed. The results indicated that the controlled lead time significantly affected driver performance. The findings have implications for the design of collision warning systems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

  2. The impact of structural packaging design on young adult smokers' perceptions of tobacco products.

    PubMed

    Borland, Ron; Savvas, Steven; Sharkie, Fiona; Moore, Karen

    2013-03-01

    To examine the extent that novel cigarette pack shapes and openings have on smokers' perceptions of those packs and the cigarettes contained within. Using a web-based survey, 160 young adult ever-smokers (18-29 years) were shown computer images of plain packaged cigarette packs in five different shapes. This was followed by packs illustrating five different methods of opening. Brand (prestige or budget) and size of the health warnings (30% or 70% warning size) were between-subject conditions. Respondents ranked packs on attractiveness, perceived quality of the cigarettes contained within and extent that the pack distracted from health warnings. Ratings of attractiveness and perceived quality were significantly associated in both substudies, but tendency to distract from warnings was more independent. Significant differences were found between the pack shapes on attractiveness, perceived quality and distraction from warnings. Standard, 2×10 and 4×5 packs were ranked less attractive than Bevelled and Rounded packs. 2×10 and 4×5 packs were also perceived as lower quality than Bevelled and Rounded packs. The Standard pack was less distracting to health warnings than all other shapes except the 2×10 pack. Pack openings were perceived as different on quality of cigarettes contained and extent of distraction to warnings. The Standard Flip-top was rated significantly lower in distracting from warnings than all other openings. Pack shape and pack opening affect ever-smokers' perceptions of the packs and the cigarettes they contain. This means that they have the potential to create appeal and differentiate products and thus should be regulated.

  3. A hazard-independent approach for the standardised multi-channel dissemination of warning messages

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Esbri Palomares, M. A.; Hammitzsch, M.; Lendholt, M.

    2012-04-01

    The tsunami disaster affecting the Indian Ocean region on Christmas 2004 demonstrated very clearly the shortcomings in tsunami detection, public warning processes as well as intergovernmental warning message exchange in the Indian Ocean region. In that regard, early warning systems require that the dissemination of early warning messages has to be executed in way that ensures that the message delivery is timely; the message content is understandable, usable and accurate. To that end, diverse and multiple dissemination channels must be used to increase the chance of the messages reaching all affected persons in a hazard scenario. In addition to this, usage of internationally accepted standards for the warning dissemination such as the Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) and Emergency Data Exchange Language (EDXL) Distribution Element specified by the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS) increase the interoperability among different warning systems enabling thus the concept of system-of-systems proposed by GEOSS. The project Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), co-funded by the European Commission under the 6th Framework Programme, aims at strengthening the early warning capacities by building an innovative generation of interoperable tsunami early warning systems based on the above mentioned concepts following a Service-oriented Architecture (SOA) approach. The project focuses on the downstream part of the hazard information processing where customized, user-tailored warning messages and alerts flow from the warning centre to the responsible authorities and/or the public with their different needs and responsibilities. The information logistics services within DEWS generate tailored EDXL-DE/CAP warning messages for each user that must receive the message according to their preferences, e.g., settings for language, interested areas, dissemination channels, etc.. However, the significant difference in the implementation and capabilities of different dissemination channels such as SMS, email and television, have bearing on the information processing required for delivery and consumption of a DEWS EDXL-DE/CAP message over each dissemination channel. These messages may include additional information in the form of maps, graphs, documents, sensor observations, etc. Therefore, the generated messages are pre-processed by channel adaptors in the information dissemination services converting it into a format that is suitable for end-to-end delivery over the dissemination channels without any semantic distortion. The approach followed by DEWS for disseminating warnings not only relies on traditional communication ways used by the already established early warnings such as the delivery of faxes and phone calls but takes into consideration the use of other broadly used communication channels such as SMS, email, narrowcast and broadcast television, instant messaging, Voice over IP, and radio. It also takes advantage of social media channels like RSS feeds, Facebook, Twitter, etc., enabling a multiplier effect, like in the case of radio and television, and thus allowing to create mash-ups by aggregating other sources of information to the original message. Finally, status information is also important in order to assess and understand whether the process of disseminating the warning to the message consumers has been successfully completed or the process failed at some point of the dissemination chain. To that end, CAP-based messages generated within the information dissemination services provide the semantics for those fields that are of interest within the context of reporting the warning dissemination status in DEWS.

  4. Population-based study of capsular warning syndrome and prognosis after early recurrent TIA.

    PubMed

    Paul, Nicola L M; Simoni, Michela; Chandratheva, Arvind; Rothwell, Peter M

    2012-09-25

    Many guidelines recommend emergency assessment for patients with ≥2 TIAs within 7 days, perhaps in recognition of the capsular warning syndrome. However, it is unclear whether all patients with multiple TIAs are at high early risk of stroke and whether treatable underlying pathologies are more prevalent in this group. We studied clinical characteristics, Trial of Org 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment (TOAST) classification, and risk of stroke in 1,000 consecutive patients with incident and recurrent TIAs in a prospective, population-based study (Oxford Vascular Study). Of 1,000 patients with TIAs, 170 had a further TIA within 7 days (105 within 24 hours). Multiple TIAs were not associated with carotid stenosis or atrial fibrillation, and much of the 10.6 (95% confidence interval [CI] 6.5-15.9) risk of stroke during the 7 days after the first TIA was due to patients with small-vessel disease (SVD) etiology (10 of 24 vs 8 of 146, odds ratio [OR] = 12.3, 95% CI 3.7-41.9, p < 0.0001), particularly those with motor weakness (i.e., capsular warning syndrome) compared with hemisensory events (9 of 15 [60%], 95% CI 35.3-84.7 vs 1 of 9 [11.1%], 95% CI 0-31.7, p = 0.03). The 7-day risk of stroke after a recurrent TIA was similar to the risk after a single TIA in patients with non-SVD TIA (8 of 146 [5.5%] vs 76 of 830 [9.2%], OR = 0.58, 95% CI 0.25-1.3, p = 0.20). Of the 9 patients with stroke after a capsular warning syndrome, all had the recurrent TIA within 24 hours after the first TIA, and the subsequent stroke occurred within 72 hours of the second TIA in 8. The ABCD2 scores of all preceding TIAs were ≥4 in all 9 patients with capsular warning syndrome before stroke. Capsular warning syndrome is rare (1.5% of TIA presentations) but has a poor prognosis (7-day stroke risk of 60%). Otherwise, recurrent TIA within 7 days is not associated with a greater stroke risk than that after a single TIA.

  5. Comparing species interaction networks along environmental gradients.

    PubMed

    Pellissier, Loïc; Albouy, Camille; Bascompte, Jordi; Farwig, Nina; Graham, Catherine; Loreau, Michel; Maglianesi, Maria Alejandra; Melián, Carlos J; Pitteloud, Camille; Roslin, Tomas; Rohr, Rudolf; Saavedra, Serguei; Thuiller, Wilfried; Woodward, Guy; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Gravel, Dominique

    2018-05-01

    Knowledge of species composition and their interactions, in the form of interaction networks, is required to understand processes shaping their distribution over time and space. As such, comparing ecological networks along environmental gradients represents a promising new research avenue to understand the organization of life. Variation in the position and intensity of links within networks along environmental gradients may be driven by turnover in species composition, by variation in species abundances and by abiotic influences on species interactions. While investigating changes in species composition has a long tradition, so far only a limited number of studies have examined changes in species interactions between networks, often with differing approaches. Here, we review studies investigating variation in network structures along environmental gradients, highlighting how methodological decisions about standardization can influence their conclusions. Due to their complexity, variation among ecological networks is frequently studied using properties that summarize the distribution or topology of interactions such as number of links, connectance, or modularity. These properties can either be compared directly or using a procedure of standardization. While measures of network structure can be directly related to changes along environmental gradients, standardization is frequently used to facilitate interpretation of variation in network properties by controlling for some co-variables, or via null models. Null models allow comparing the deviation of empirical networks from random expectations and are expected to provide a more mechanistic understanding of the factors shaping ecological networks when they are coupled with functional traits. As an illustration, we compare approaches to quantify the role of trait matching in driving the structure of plant-hummingbird mutualistic networks, i.e. a direct comparison, standardized by null models and hypothesis-based metaweb. Overall, our analysis warns against a comparison of studies that rely on distinct forms of standardization, as they are likely to highlight different signals. Fostering a better understanding of the analytical tools available and the signal they detect will help produce deeper insights into how and why ecological networks vary along environmental gradients. © 2017 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  6. Does global warning increase establishment rates of invasive alien species? A centurial time series analysis

    Treesearch

    Dingcheng Huang; Robert A. Haack; Runzhi Zhang

    2011-01-01

    The establishment rate of invasive alien insect species has been increasing worldwide during the past century. This trend has been widely attributed to increased rates of international trade and associated species introductions, but rarely linked to environmental change. To better understand and manage the bioinvasion process, it is crucial to understand the...

  7. Anatomy of Historical Tsunamis: Lessons Learned for Tsunami Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Igarashi, Y.; Kong, L.; Yamamoto, M.; McCreery, C. S.

    2011-11-01

    Tsunamis are high-impact disasters that can cause death and destruction locally within a few minutes of their occurrence and across oceans hours, even up to a day, afterward. Efforts to establish tsunami warning systems to protect life and property began in the Pacific after the 1946 Aleutian Islands tsunami caused casualties in Hawaii. Seismic and sea level data were used by a central control center to evaluate tsunamigenic potential and then issue alerts and warnings. The ensuing events of 1952, 1957, and 1960 tested the new system, which continued to expand and evolve from a United States system to an international system in 1965. The Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific (ITSU) steadily improved through the decades as more stations became available in real and near-real time through better communications technology and greater bandwidth. New analysis techniques, coupled with more data of higher quality, resulted in better detection, greater solution accuracy, and more reliable warnings, but limitations still exist in constraining the source and in accurately predicting propagation of the wave from source to shore. Tsunami event data collected over the last two decades through international tsunami science surveys have led to more realistic models for source generation and inundation, and within the warning centers, real-time tsunami wave forecasting will become a reality in the near future. The tsunami warning system is an international cooperative effort amongst countries supported by global and national monitoring networks and dedicated tsunami warning centers; the research community has contributed to the system by advancing and improving its analysis tools. Lessons learned from the earliest tsunamis provided the backbone for the present system, but despite 45 years of experience, the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami reminded us that tsunamis strike and kill everywhere, not just in the Pacific. Today, a global intergovernmental tsunami warning system is coordinated under the United Nations. This paper reviews historical tsunamis, their warning activities, and their sea level records to highlight lessons learned with the focus on how these insights have helped to drive further development of tsunami warning systems and their tsunami warning centers. While the international systems do well for teletsunamis, faster detection, more accurate evaluations, and widespread timely alerts are still the goals, and challenges still remain to achieving early warning against the more frequent and destructive local tsunamis.

  8. New technology for using meteorological information in forest insect pest forecast and warning systems.

    PubMed

    Qin, Jiang-Lin; Yang, Xiu-Hao; Yang, Zhong-Wu; Luo, Ji-Tong; Lei, Xiu-Feng

    2017-12-01

    Near surface air temperature and rainfall are major weather factors affecting forest insect dynamics. The recent developments in remote sensing retrieval and geographic information system spatial analysis techniques enable the utilization of weather factors to significantly enhance forest pest forecasting and warning systems. The current study focused on building forest pest digital data structures as a platform of correlation analysis between weather conditions and forest pest dynamics for better pest forecasting and warning systems using the new technologies. The study dataset contained 3 353 425 small polygons with 174 defined attributes covering 95 counties of Guangxi province of China currently registering 292 forest pest species. Field data acquisition and information transfer systems were established with four software licences that provided 15-fold improvement compared to the systems currently used in China. Nine technical specifications were established including codes of forest districts, pest species and host tree species, and standard practices of forest pest monitoring and information management. Attributes can easily be searched using ArcGIS9.3 and/or the free QGIS2.16 software. Small polygons with pest relevant attributes are a new tool of precision farming and detailed forest insect pest management that are technologically advanced. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

  9. Considerations and Future Research Directions for E-Cigarette Warnings-Findings from Expert Interviews.

    PubMed

    Wackowski, Olivia A; Hammond, David; O'Connor, Richard J; Strasser, Andrew A; Delnevo, Cristine D

    2017-07-14

    Tobacco warning labels are important sources of risk information but research historically has been cigarette-centric. This qualitative study aimed to inform future direction and research on warnings for e-cigarettes. Between June and August 2016, we conducted interviews with 10 researchers with expertise in tobacco warning label research. Interviewees were registrants of a 2016 National Cancer Institute grantee meeting on tobacco warnings. Several participants agreed that the Food and Drug Administration's new nicotine addiction warning for e-cigarettes could be informative but that it might not resonate with young people. Many agreed that more than one warning would be important as e-cigarette science evolves and that research on additional warning themes (e.g., nicotine exposure, harmful constituents) and execution styles (including use of pictorials) was important. Participants were somewhat mixed about the use of reduced-risk messages within e-cigarette warnings, but agreed that research on how to communicate about cigarette/e-cigarette relative risks was needed. Overall, more research is needed on tobacco warnings for non-cigarette products, including on the message content, placement, execution and potential impact on audiences' product knowledge, risk perceptions and use intentions. This is particularly needed for products such as e-cigarettes which may have harm-reduction potential relative to cigarettes and require unique considerations.

  10. Large natural geophysical events: planetary planning

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Knox, J.B.; Smith, J.V.

    1984-09-01

    Geological and geophysical data suggest that during the evolution of the earth and its species, that there have been many mass extinctions due to large impacts from comets and large asteroids, and major volcanic events. Today, technology has developed to the stage where we can begin to consider protective measures for the planet. Evidence of the ecological disruption and frequency of these major events is presented. Surveillance and warning systems are most critical to develop wherein sufficient lead times for warnings exist so that appropriate interventions could be designed. The long term research undergirding these warning systems, implementation, and proofmore » testing is rich in opportunities for collaboration for peace.« less

  11. Evaluation of the National Weather Service Extreme Cold Warning Experiment in North Dakota

    PubMed Central

    Chiu, Cindy H.; Vagi, Sara J.; Wolkin, Amy F.; Martin, John Paul; Noe, Rebecca S.

    2016-01-01

    Dangerously cold weather threatens life and property. During periods of extreme cold due to wind chill, the National Weather Service (NWS) issues wind chill warnings to prompt the public to take action to mitigate risks. Wind chill warnings are based on ambient temperatures and wind speeds. Since 2010, NWS has piloted a new extreme cold warning issued for cold temperatures in wind and nonwind conditions. The North Dakota Department of Health, NWS, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention collaborated in conducting household surveys in Burleigh County, North Dakota, to evaluate this new warning. The objectives of the evaluation were to assess whether residents heard the new warning and to determine if protective behaviors were prompted by the warning. This was a cross-sectional survey design using the Community Assessment for Public Health Emergency Response (CASPER) methodology to select a statistically representative sample of households from Burleigh County. From 10 to 11 April 2012, 188 door-to-door household interviews were completed. The CASPER methodology uses probability sampling with weighted analysis to estimate the number and percentage of households with a specific response within Burleigh County. The majority of households reported having heard both the extreme cold and wind chill warnings, and both warnings prompted protective behaviors. These results suggest this community heard the new warning and took protective actions after hearing the warning. PMID:27239260

  12. Perceived effectiveness of text and pictorial health warnings for smokeless tobacco packages in Navi Mumbai, India, and Dhaka, Bangladesh: findings from an experimental study.

    PubMed

    Mutti, Seema; Reid, Jessica L; Gupta, Prakash C; Pednekar, Mangesh S; Dhumal, Gauri; Nargis, Nigar; Hussain, Akm Ghulam; Hammond, David

    2016-07-01

    To examine the perceived effectiveness of text and pictorial smokeless tobacco health warnings in India and Bangladesh, including different types of message content. An experimental study was conducted in Navi Mumbai, India (n=1002), and Dhaka, Bangladesh (n=1081). Face-to-face interviews were conducted on tablets with adult (≥19 years) smokeless tobacco users and youth (16-18 years) users and non-users. Respondents viewed warnings depicting five health effects, within one of the four randomly assigned warning label conditions (or message themes): (1) text-only, (2) symbolic pictorial, (3) graphic pictorial or (4) personal testimonial pictorial messages. Text-only warnings were perceived as less effective than all of the pictorial styles (p<0.001 for all). Graphic warnings were given higher effectiveness ratings than symbolic or testimonial warnings (p<0.001). No differences were observed in levels of agreement with negative attitudes and beliefs across message themes, after respondents had viewed warnings. Pictorial warnings are more effective than text-only messages. Pictorial warnings depicting graphic health effects may have the greatest impact, consistent with research from high-income countries on cigarette warnings. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  13. Local Tsunami Warnings using GNSS and Seismic Data.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirshorn, B. F.

    2017-12-01

    Tsunami warning Centers (TWC's) must issue warnings based on imperfect and limited data. Uncertainties increase in the near field, where a tsunami reaches the closest coastal populations to the causative earthquake in a half hour or less. In the absence of a warning, the usual advice is "When the ground shakes so severely that it's difficult to stand, move uphill and away from the coast." But, what if the shaking is not severe? If, for example, the earthquake ruptures slowly (producing very little perceived shaking) this advice will fail. Unfortunately these "Tsunami" earthquakes are not rare: tsunamis from slow earthquakes off of Nicaragua in 1992, and Java in 1994 and 2006, killed 179, 250 and 637 people, respectively, even though very few nearby coastal residents felt any strong ground shaking. TWC's must therefore warn the closest coastal populations to the causative earthquake, where over 80% of the Tsunami based casualties typically occur, as soon possible after earthquake rupture begins. The NWS Tsunami Warning Centers (TWCs) currently issue local Tsunami Warnings for the US West Coast, Hawaii, and the Puerto Rico - Virgin Island region within 2-4 minutes after origin time. However, our initial short period Magnitude estimates saturate over about Mw 6.5, and Mwp underestimates Mw for events larger than about Mw 7.5 when using data in the 0 to 3 degree epicentral distance range, severely underestimating the danger of a potential Tsunami in the near field. Coastal GNSS networks complement seismic monitoring networks, and enable unsaturated estimates of Mw within 2-3 minutes of earthquake origin time. NASA/JPL, SIO, USGS, CWU, UCB and UW, with funding and guidance from NASA, and leveraging the USGS funded ShakeAlert development, have been working with the National Weather Service TWC's to incorporate real-time GNSS and seismogeodetic data into their operations. These data will soon provide unsaturated estimates of moment magnitude, Centroid Moment Tensor solutions, coseismic crustal deformation, and fault slip models within a few minutes after earthquake initiation. The sea floor deformation associated with the earthquake slip can then be used as an initial condition for an automatically generated tsunami propagation and coastal inundation model for coastal warnings.

  14. Effects of wildlife warning reflectors ("deer delineators") on wildlife-vehicle collisions in central Wyoming.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2015-05-01

    The purpose of this study was to provide the Wyoming Department of Transportation with information about (1) the : effectiveness of Streiter-Lite wildlife warning reflectors that had been installed in three locations within Wyomings District 5, : ...

  15. Global Tsunami Warning System Development Since 2004

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weinstein, S.; Becker, N. C.; Wang, D.; Fryer, G. J.; McCreery, C.; Hirshorn, B. F.

    2014-12-01

    The 9.1 Mw Great Sumatra Earthquake of Dec. 26, 2004, generated the most destructive tsunami in history killing 227,000 people along Indian Ocean coastlines and was recorded by sea-level instruments world-wide. This tragedy showed the Indian Ocean needed a tsunami warning system to prevent another tragedy on this scale. The Great Sumatra Earthquake also highlighted the need for tsunami warning systems in other ocean basins. Instruments for recording earthquakes and sea-level data useful for tsunami monitoring did not exist outside of the Pacific Ocean in 2004. Seismometers were few in number, and even fewer were high-quality long period broadband instruments. Nor was much of their data made available to the US tsunami warning centers (TWCs). In 2004 the US TWCs relied exclusively on instrumentation provided and maintained by IRIS and the USGS for areas outside of the Pacific.Since 2004, the US TWCs and their partners have made substantial improvements to seismic and sea-level monitoring networks with the addition of new and better instruments, densification of existing networks, better communications infrastructure, and improved data sharing among tsunami warning centers. In particular, the number of sea-level stations transmitting data in near real-time and the amount of seismic data available to the tsunami warning centers has more than tripled. The DART network that consisted of a half-dozen Pacific stations in 2004 now totals nearly 60 stations worldwide. Earthquake and tsunami science has progressed as well. It took nearly three weeks to obtain the first reliable estimates of the 2004 Sumatra Earthquake's magnitude. Today, thanks to improved seismic networks and modern computing power, TWCs use the W-phase seismic moment method to determine accurate earthquake magnitudes and focal mechanisms for great earthquakes within 25 minutes. TWC scientists have also leveraged these modern computers to generate tsunami forecasts in a matter of minutes.Progress towards a global tsunami warning system has been substantial and today fully-functioning TWCs protect most of the world's coastlines. These improvements have also led to a substantial reduction of time required by the TWCs to detect, locate, and assess the tsunami threat from earthquakes occurring worldwide.

  16. Cannabis Users' Recommended Warnings for Packages of Legally Sold Cannabis: An Australia-Centered Study

    PubMed Central

    Malouff, John M.; Johnson, Caitlin E.; Rooke, Sally E.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Introduction: Although cannabis use creates health risks, governments have recently been legalizing either medical use or leisure use. These governments can mandate health warnings on cannabis packages. Prior research examined recommended warnings of cannabis experts. The aim of this study was to obtain suggested cannabis health and safety warnings from cannabis users. Methods: We used a media release, Facebook postings, and announcements in university classes to seek individuals who had used cannabis at least once according to their own report. Using online data collection software that keeps participants anonymous, we asked the individuals to suggest a warning that governments could mandate on cannabis packages. Results: In total, 288 users suggested warnings. Categorizing the warnings into content categories led to six warning topics: (1) risk of harm to mental health and psychological functioning; (2) risk of operating machinery while under the influence; (3) short-term physical side effects; (4) responsible use; (5) long-term negative physical effects; and (6) dependence, addiction, or abuse. The user-suggested warnings overlapped with six expert-recommended warnings identified in prior survey research and included two content areas that did not feature in expert-recommended warnings: short-term physical side effects and the importance of responsible use. Conclusions: The results are consistent with prior findings that some youths perceive cannabis use as potentially harmful. The current findings provide possible new content for warnings on cannabis packages. PMID:28861495

  17. Cannabis Users' Recommended Warnings for Packages of Legally Sold Cannabis: An Australia-Centered Study.

    PubMed

    Malouff, John M; Johnson, Caitlin E; Rooke, Sally E

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Although cannabis use creates health risks, governments have recently been legalizing either medical use or leisure use. These governments can mandate health warnings on cannabis packages. Prior research examined recommended warnings of cannabis experts. The aim of this study was to obtain suggested cannabis health and safety warnings from cannabis users. Methods: We used a media release, Facebook postings, and announcements in university classes to seek individuals who had used cannabis at least once according to their own report. Using online data collection software that keeps participants anonymous, we asked the individuals to suggest a warning that governments could mandate on cannabis packages. Results: In total, 288 users suggested warnings. Categorizing the warnings into content categories led to six warning topics: (1) risk of harm to mental health and psychological functioning; (2) risk of operating machinery while under the influence; (3) short-term physical side effects; (4) responsible use; (5) long-term negative physical effects; and (6) dependence, addiction, or abuse. The user-suggested warnings overlapped with six expert-recommended warnings identified in prior survey research and included two content areas that did not feature in expert-recommended warnings: short-term physical side effects and the importance of responsible use. Conclusions: The results are consistent with prior findings that some youths perceive cannabis use as potentially harmful. The current findings provide possible new content for warnings on cannabis packages.

  18. Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Warnings at Raleigh, North Carolina.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoium, Debra K.; Riordan, Allen J.; Monahan, John; Keeter, Kermit K.

    1997-11-01

    The National Weather Service issues public warnings for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes when these storms appear imminent. A study of the warning process was conducted at the National Weather Service Forecast Office at Raleigh, North Carolina, from 1994 through 1996. The purpose of the study was to examine the decision process by documenting the types of information leading to decisions to warn or not to warn and by describing the sequence and timing of events in the development of warnings. It was found that the evolution of warnings followed a logical sequence beginning with storm monitoring and proceeding with increasingly focused activity. For simplicity, information input to the process was categorized as one of three types: ground truth, radar reflectivity, or radar velocity.Reflectivity, velocity, and ground truth were all equally likely to initiate the investigation process. This investigation took an average of 7 min, after which either a decision was made not to warn or new information triggered the warning. Decisions not to issue warnings were based more on ground truth and reflectivity than radar velocity products. Warnings with investigations of more than 2 min were more likely to be triggered by radar reflectivity, than by velocity or ground truth. Warnings with a shorter investigation time, defined here as "immediate trigger warnings," were less frequently based on velocity products and more on ground truth information. Once the decision was made to warn, it took an average of 2.1 min to prepare the warning text. In 85% of cases when warnings were issued, at least one contact was made to emergency management officials or storm spotters in the warned county. Reports of severe weather were usually received soon after the warning was transmitted-almost half of these within 30 min after issue. A total of 68% were received during the severe weather episode, but some of these storm reports later proved false according to Storm Data.Even though the WSR-88D is a sophisticated tool, ground truth information was found to be a vital part of the warning process. However, the data did not indicate that population density was statistically correlated either with the number of warnings issued or the verification rate.

  19. Hearing Sensation Changes When a Warning Predicts a Loud Sound in the False Killer Whale (Pseudorca crassidens).

    PubMed

    Nachtigall, Paul E; Supin, Alexander Y

    2016-01-01

    Stranded whales and dolphins have sometimes been associated with loud anthropogenic sounds. Echolocating whales produce very loud sounds themselves and have developed the ability to protect their hearing from their own signals. A false killer whale's hearing sensitivity was measured when a faint warning sound was given just before the presentation of an increase in intensity to 170 dB. If the warning occurred within 1-9 s, as opposed to 20-40 s, the whale showed a 13-dB reduction in hearing sensitivity. Warning sounds before loud pulses may help mitigate the effects of loud anthropogenic sounds on wild animals.

  20. Transit bus stop pedestrian warning application : requirements document.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2016-08-01

    This document describes the System Requirements for the Transit Bus Stop Pedestrian Warning (TSPW) application. The requirements describe the system of interest for the implementation team including the required functions and performance along with t...

  1. Comparison of Enterococcus Species Diversity in Marine Water and Wastewater Using Enterolert and EPA Method 1600

    PubMed Central

    Ferguson, Donna M.; Griffith, John F.; McGee, Charles D.; Weisberg, Stephen B.; Hagedorn, Charles

    2013-01-01

    EPA Method 1600 and Enterolert are used interchangeably to measure Enterococcus for fecal contamination of public beaches, but the methods occasionally produce different results. Here we assess whether these differences are attributable to the selectivity for certain species within the Enterococcus group. Both methods were used to obtain 1279 isolates from 17 environmental samples, including influent and effluent of four wastewater treatment plants, ambient marine water from seven different beaches, and freshwater urban runoff from two stream systems. The isolates were identified to species level. Detection of non-Enterococcus species was slightly higher using Enterolert (8.4%) than for EPA Method 1600 (5.1%). E. faecalis and E. faecium, commonly associated with human fecal waste, were predominant in wastewater; however, Enterolert had greater selectivity for E. faecalis, which was also shown using a laboratory-created sample. The same species selectivity was not observed for most beach water and urban runoff samples. These samples had relatively higher proportions of plant associated species, E. casseliflavus (18.5%) and E. mundtii (5.7%), compared to wastewater, suggesting environmental inputs to beaches and runoff. The potential for species selectivity among water testing methods should be considered when assessing the sanitary quality of beaches so that public health warnings are based on indicators representative of fecal sources. PMID:23840233

  2. Sex differences but no evidence of quantitative honesty in the warning signals of six-spot burnet moths (Zygaena filipendulae L.).

    PubMed

    Briolat, Emmanuelle Sophie; Zagrobelny, Mika; Olsen, Carl Erik; Blount, Jonathan D; Stevens, Martin

    2018-05-16

    The distinctive black and red wing pattern of six-spot burnet moths (Zygaena filipendulae, L.) is a classic example of aposematism, advertising their potent cyanide-based defences. While such warning signals provide a qualitatively honest signal of unprofitability, the evidence for quantitative honesty, whereby variation in visual traits could provide accurate estimates of individual toxicity, is more equivocal. Combining measures of cyanogenic glucoside content and wing colour from the perspective of avian predators, we investigate the relationship between coloration and defences in Z. filipendulae, to test signal honesty both within and across populations. There were no significant relationships between mean cyanogenic glucoside concentration and metrics of wing coloration across populations in males, yet in females higher cyanogenic glucoside levels were associated with smaller and lighter red forewing markings. Trends within populations were similarly inconsistent with quantitative honesty, and persistent differences between the sexes were apparent: larger females, carrying a greater total cyanogenic glucoside load, displayed larger but less conspicuous markings than smaller males, according to several colour metrics. The overall high aversiveness of cyanogenic glucosides and fluctuations in colour and toxin levels during an individual's lifetime may contribute to these results, highlighting generally important reasons why signal honesty should not always be expected in aposematic species. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  3. GITEWS, an extensible and open integration platform for manifold sensor systems and processing components based on Sensor Web Enablement and the principles of Service Oriented Architectures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haener, Rainer; Waechter, Joachim; Fleischer, Jens; Herrnkind, Stefan; Schwarting, Herrmann

    2010-05-01

    The German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) is a multifaceted system consisting of various sensor types like seismometers, sea level sensors or GPS stations, and processing components, all with their own system behavior and proprietary data structure. To operate a warning chain, beginning from measurements scaling up to warning products, all components have to interact in a correct way, both syntactically and semantically. Designing the system great emphasis was laid on conformity to the Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) specification by the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC). The technical infrastructure, the so called Tsunami Service Bus (TSB) follows the blueprint of Service Oriented Architectures (SOA). The TSB is an integration concept (SWE) where functionality (observe, task, notify, alert, and process) is grouped around business processes (Monitoring, Decision Support, Sensor Management) and packaged as interoperable services (SAS, SOS, SPS, WNS). The benefits of using a flexible architecture together with SWE lead to an open integration platform: • accessing and controlling heterogeneous sensors in a uniform way (Functional Integration) • assigns functionality to distinct services (Separation of Concerns) • allows resilient relationship between systems (Loose Coupling) • integrates services so that they can be accessed from everywhere (Location Transparency) • enables infrastructures which integrate heterogeneous applications (Encapsulation) • allows combination of services (Orchestration) and data exchange within business processes Warning systems will evolve over time: New sensor types might be added, old sensors will be replaced and processing components will be improved. From a collection of few basic services it shall be possible to compose more complex functionality essential for specific warning systems. Given these requirements a flexible infrastructure is a prerequisite for sustainable systems and their architecture must be tailored for evolution. The use of well-known techniques and widely used open source software implementing industrial standards reduces the impact of service modifications allowing the evolution of a system as a whole. GITEWS implemented a solution to feed sensor raw data from any (remote) system into the infrastructure. Specific dispatchers enable plugging in sensor-type specific processing without changing the architecture. Client components don't need to be adjusted if new sensor-types or individuals are added to the system, because they access them via standardized services. One of the outstanding features of service-oriented architectures is the possibility to compose new services from existing ones. The so called orchestration, allows the definition of new warning processes which can be adapted easily to new requirements. This approach has following advantages: • With implementing SWE it is possible to establish the "detection" and integration of sensors via the internet. Thus a system of systems combining early warning functionality at different levels of detail is feasible. • Any institution could add both its own components as well as components from third parties if they are developed in conformance to SOA principles. In a federation an institution keeps the ownership of its data and decides which data are provided by a service and when. • A system can be deployed at minor costs as a core for own development at any institution and thus enabling autonomous early warning- or monitoring systems. The presentation covers both design and various instantiations (live demonstration) of the GITEWS architecture. Experiences concerning the design and complexity of SWE will be addressed in detail. A substantial amount of attention is laid on the techniques and methods of extending the architecture, adapting proprietary components to SWE services and encoding, and their orchestration in high level workflows and processes. Furthermore the potential of the architecture concerning adaptive behavior, collaboration across boundaries and semantic interoperability will be addressed.

  4. Protein-protein interaction network-based detection of functionally similar proteins within species.

    PubMed

    Song, Baoxing; Wang, Fen; Guo, Yang; Sang, Qing; Liu, Min; Li, Dengyun; Fang, Wei; Zhang, Deli

    2012-07-01

    Although functionally similar proteins across species have been widely studied, functionally similar proteins within species showing low sequence similarity have not been examined in detail. Identification of these proteins is of significant importance for understanding biological functions, evolution of protein families, progression of co-evolution, and convergent evolution and others which cannot be obtained by detection of functionally similar proteins across species. Here, we explored a method of detecting functionally similar proteins within species based on graph theory. After denoting protein-protein interaction networks using graphs, we split the graphs into subgraphs using the 1-hop method. Proteins with functional similarities in a species were detected using a method of modified shortest path to compare these subgraphs and to find the eligible optimal results. Using seven protein-protein interaction networks and this method, some functionally similar proteins with low sequence similarity that cannot detected by sequence alignment were identified. By analyzing the results, we found that, sometimes, it is difficult to separate homologous from convergent evolution. Evaluation of the performance of our method by gene ontology term overlap showed that the precision of our method was excellent. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  5. False alarms and missed events: the impact and origins of perceived inaccuracy in tornado warning systems.

    PubMed

    Ripberger, Joseph T; Silva, Carol L; Jenkins-Smith, Hank C; Carlson, Deven E; James, Mark; Herron, Kerry G

    2015-01-01

    Theory and conventional wisdom suggest that errors undermine the credibility of tornado warning systems and thus decrease the probability that individuals will comply (i.e., engage in protective action) when future warnings are issued. Unfortunately, empirical research on the influence of warning system accuracy on public responses to tornado warnings is incomplete and inconclusive. This study adds to existing research by analyzing two sets of relationships. First, we assess the relationship between perceptions of accuracy, credibility, and warning response. Using data collected via a large regional survey, we find that trust in the National Weather Service (NWS; the agency responsible for issuing tornado warnings) increases the likelihood that an individual will opt for protective action when responding to a hypothetical warning. More importantly, we find that subjective perceptions of warning system accuracy are, as theory suggests, systematically related to trust in the NWS and (by extension) stated responses to future warnings. The second half of the study matches survey data against NWS warning and event archives to investigate a critical follow-up question--Why do some people perceive that their warning system is accurate, whereas others perceive that their system is error prone? We find that subjective perceptions are--in part-a function of objective experience, knowledge, and demographic characteristics. When considered in tandem, these findings support the proposition that errors influence perceptions about the accuracy of warning systems, which in turn impact the credibility that people assign to information provided by systems and, ultimately, public decisions about how to respond when warnings are issued. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. Considerations and Future Research Directions for E-Cigarette Warnings—Findings from Expert Interviews

    PubMed Central

    Wackowski, Olivia A.; Hammond, David; O’Connor, Richard J.; Strasser, Andrew A.; Delnevo, Cristine D.

    2017-01-01

    Tobacco warning labels are important sources of risk information but research historically has been cigarette-centric. This qualitative study aimed to inform future direction and research on warnings for e-cigarettes. Between June and August 2016, we conducted interviews with 10 researchers with expertise in tobacco warning label research. Interviewees were registrants of a 2016 National Cancer Institute grantee meeting on tobacco warnings. Several participants agreed that the Food and Drug Administration’s new nicotine addiction warning for e-cigarettes could be informative but that it might not resonate with young people. Many agreed that more than one warning would be important as e-cigarette science evolves and that research on additional warning themes (e.g., nicotine exposure, harmful constituents) and execution styles (including use of pictorials) was important. Participants were somewhat mixed about the use of reduced-risk messages within e-cigarette warnings, but agreed that research on how to communicate about cigarette/e-cigarette relative risks was needed. Overall, more research is needed on tobacco warnings for non-cigarette products, including on the message content, placement, execution and potential impact on audiences’ product knowledge, risk perceptions and use intentions. This is particularly needed for products such as e-cigarettes which may have harm-reduction potential relative to cigarettes and require unique considerations. PMID:28708124

  7. Phylogenetic and functional diversity in large carnivore assemblages

    PubMed Central

    Dalerum, F.

    2013-01-01

    Large terrestrial carnivores are important ecological components and prominent flagship species, but are often extinction prone owing to a combination of biological traits and high levels of human persecution. This study combines phylogenetic and functional diversity evaluations of global and continental large carnivore assemblages to provide a framework for conservation prioritization both between and within assemblages. Species-rich assemblages of large carnivores simultaneously had high phylogenetic and functional diversity, but species contributions to phylogenetic and functional diversity components were not positively correlated. The results further provide ecological justification for the largest carnivore species as a focus for conservation action, and suggests that range contraction is a likely cause of diminishing carnivore ecosystem function. This study highlights that preserving species-rich carnivore assemblages will capture both high phylogenetic and functional diversity, but that prioritizing species within assemblages will involve trade-offs between optimizing contemporary ecosystem function versus the evolutionary potential for future ecosystem performance. PMID:23576787

  8. Studying the response of drivers against different collision warning systems: a review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muzammel, M.; Yusoff, M. Zuki; Malik, A. Saeed; Mohamad Saad, M. Naufal; Meriaudeau, F.

    2017-03-01

    The number of vehicle accidents is rapidly increasing and causing significant economic losses in many countries. According to the World Health Organization, road accidents will become the fifth major cause of death by the year 2030. To minimize these accidents different types of collision warning systems have been proposed for motor vehicle drivers. These systems can early detect and warn the drivers about the potential danger, up to a certain accuracy. Many researchers study the effectiveness of these systems by using different methods, including Electroencephalography (EEG). From the literature review, it has been observed that, these systems increase the drivers' response and can help to minimize the accidents that may occur due to drivers unconsciousness. For these collision warning systems, tactile early warnings are found more effective as compared to the auditory and visual early warnings. This review also highlights the areas, where further research can be performed to fully analyze the collision warning system. For example, some contradictions are found among researchers, about these systems' performance for drivers within different age groups. Similarly, most of the EEG studies focus on the front collision warning systems and only give beep sound to alert the drivers. Therefore, EEG study can be performed for the rear end collision warning systems, against proper auditory warning messages which indicate the types of hazards. This EEG study will help to design more friendly collision warning system and may save many lives.

  9. Design and Implementation of a C++ Software Package to scan for and parse Tsunami Messages issued by the Tsunami Warning Centers for Operational use at the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sardina, V.

    2012-12-01

    The US Tsunami Warning Centers (TWCs) have traditionally generated their tsunami message products primarily as blocks of text then tagged with headers that identify them on each particular communications' (comms) circuit. Each warning center has a primary area of responsibility (AOR) within which it has an authoritative role regarding parameters such as earthquake location and magnitude. This means that when a major tsunamigenic event occurs the other warning centers need to quickly access the earthquake parameters issued by the authoritative warning center before issuing their message products intended for customers in their own AOR. Thus, within the operational context of the TWCs the scientists on duty have an operational need to access the information contained in the message products issued by other warning centers as quickly as possible. As a solution to this operational problem we designed and implemented a C++ software package that allows scanning for and parsing the entire suite of tsunami message products issued by the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC), the West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC), and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). The scanning and parsing classes composing the resulting C++ software package allow parsing both non-official message products(observatory messages) routinely issued by the TWCs, and all official tsunami message products such as tsunami advisories, watches, and warnings. This software package currently allows scientists on duty at the PTWC to automatically retrieve the parameters contained in tsunami messages issued by WCATWC, JMA, or PTWC itself. Extension of the capabilities of the classes composing the software package would make it possible to generate XML and CAP compliant versions of the TWCs' message products until new messaging software natively adds this capabilities. Customers who receive the TWCs' tsunami message products could also use the package to automatically retrieve information from messages sent via any text-based communications' circuit currently used by the TWCs to disseminate their tsunami message products.

  10. Transportation Analysis Exploring Alternative Shipping of Marine Expeditionary Brigade Forces to Seabase in Contingency Response Scenarios

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-12-01

    sub- functions: 20 • A.1 – Receive Warning Order • A.2 – Determine Available Transportation • A.3 – Allocate Equipment and Personnel Functions A...upon the Warning Order and allocate personnel and equipment to those transportation assets. Figure 6 depicts functional hierarchy of the Planning...determine available shipping and the allocation of equipment (e.g., cargo and vehicle capacities) to the available ships. In support of MEB

  11. A multi-proxy assessment of dieback causes in a Mediterranean oak species.

    PubMed

    Colangelo, Michele; Camarero, J Julio; Battipaglia, Giovanna; Borghetti, Marco; De Micco, Veronica; Gentilesca, Tiziana; Ripullone, Francesco

    2017-05-01

    Drought stress causes forest dieback that is often explained by two interrelated mechanisms, namely hydraulic failure and carbon starvation. However, it is still unclear which functional and structural alterations, related to these mechanisms, predispose to dieback. Here we apply a multi-proxy approach for the characterization of tree structure (radial growth, wood anatomy) and functioning (δ13C, δ18O and non-structural carbohydrates (NSCs)) in tree rings before and after drought-induced dieback. We aim to discriminate which is the main mechanism and to assess which variables can act as early-warning proxies of drought-triggered damage. The study was tailored in southern Italy in two forests (i.e., San Paolo (SP) and Oriolo (OR)) where declining and non-declining trees of a ring-porous tree species (Quercus frainetto Ten.) showing anisohydric behavior coexist. Both stands showed growth decline in response to warm and dry spring conditions, although the onset of dieback was shifted between them (2002 in SP and 2009 in OR). Declining trees displayed a sharp growth drop after this onset with reductions of 49% and 44% at SP and OR sites, respectively. Further, contrary to what we expected, declining trees showed a lower intrinsic water-use efficiency compared with non-declining trees after the dieback onset (with reductions of 9.7% and 5.6% at sites SP and OR, respectively), due to enhanced water loss through transpiration, as indicated by the lower δ18O values. This was more noticeable at the most drought-affected SP stand. Sapwood NSCs did not differ between declining and non-declining trees, indicating no carbon starvation in affected trees. Thus, the characterized structural and functional alterations partially support the hydraulic failure mechanism of dieback. Finally, we show that growth data are reliable early-warning proxies of drought-triggered dieback. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  12. Do consumers 'Get the facts'? A survey of alcohol warning label recognition in Australia.

    PubMed

    Coomber, Kerri; Martino, Florentine; Barbour, I Robert; Mayshak, Richelle; Miller, Peter G

    2015-08-22

    There is limited research on awareness of alcohol warning labels and their effects. The current study examined the awareness of the Australian voluntary warning labels, the 'Get the facts' logo (a component of current warning labels) that directs consumers to an industry-designed informational website, and whether alcohol consumers visited this website. Participants aged 18-45 (unweighted n = 561; mean age = 33.6 years) completed an online survey assessing alcohol consumption patterns, awareness of the 'Get the facts' logo and warning labels, and use of the website. No participants recalled the 'Get the facts' logo, and the recall rate of warning labels was 16% at best. A quarter of participants recognised the 'Get the facts' logo, and awareness of the warning labels ranged from 13.1-37.9%. Overall, only 7.3% of respondents had visited the website. Multivariable logistic regression models indicated that younger drinkers, increased frequency of binge drinking, consuming alcohol directly from the bottle or can, and support for warning labels were significantly, positively associated with awareness of the logo and warning labels. While an increased frequency of binge drinking, consuming alcohol directly from the container, support for warning labels, and recognition of the 'Get the facts' logo increased the odds of visiting the website. Within this sample, recall of the current, voluntary warning labels on Australian alcohol products was non-existent, overall awareness was low, and few people reported visiting the DrinkWise website. It appears that current warning labels fail to effectively transmit health messages to the general public.

  13. Toward Global Drought Early Warning Capability - Expanding International Cooperation for the Development of a Framework for Monitoring and Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pozzi, Will; Sheffield, Justin; Stefanski, Robert; Cripe, Douglas; Pulwarty, Roger; Vogt, Jurgen V.; Heim, Richard R., Jr.; Brewer, Michael J.; Svoboda, Mark; Westerhoff, Rogier; hide

    2013-01-01

    Drought has had a significant impact on civilization throughout history in terms of reductions in agricultural productivity, potable water supply, and economic activity, and in extreme cases this has led to famine. Every continent has semiarid areas, which are especially vulnerable to drought. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has noted that average annual river runoff and water availability are projected to decrease by 10 percent-13 percent over some dry and semiarid regions in mid and low latitudes, increasing the frequency, intensity, and duration of drought, along with its associated impacts. The sheer magnitude of the problem demands efforts to reduce vulnerability to drought by moving away from the reactive, crisis management approach of the past toward a more proactive, risk management approach that is centered on reducing vulnerability to drought as much as possible while providing early warning of evolving drought conditions and possible impacts. Many countries, unfortunately, do not have adequate resources to provide early warning, but require outside support to provide the necessary early warning information for risk management. Furthermore, in an interconnected world, the need for information on a global scale is crucial for understanding the prospect of declines in agricultural productivity and associated impacts on food prices, food security, and potential for civil conflict. This paper highlights the recent progress made toward a Global Drought Early Warning Monitoring Framework (GDEWF), an underlying partnership and framework, along with its Global Drought Early Warning System (GDEWS), which is its interoperable information system, and the organizations that have begun working together to make it a reality. The GDEWF aims to improve existing regional and national drought monitoring and forecasting capabilities by adding a global component, facilitating continental monitoring and forecasting (where lacking), and improving these tools at various scales, thereby increasing the capacity of national and regional institutions that lack drought early warning systems or complementing existing ones. A further goal is to improve coordination of information delivery for drought-related activities and relief efforts across the world. This is especially relevant for regions and nations with low capacity for drought early warning. To do this requires a global partnership that leverages the resources necessary and develops capabilities at the global level, such as global drought forecasting combined with early warning tools, global real-time monitoring, and harmonized methods to identify critical areas vulnerable to drought. Although the path to a fully functional GDEWS is challenging, multiple partners and organizations within the drought, forecasting, agricultural, and water-cycle communities are committed to working toward its success.

  14. Rare species contribute disproportionately to the functional structure of species assemblages.

    PubMed

    Leitão, Rafael P; Zuanon, Jansen; Villéger, Sébastien; Williams, Stephen E; Baraloto, Christopher; Fortunel, Claire; Mendonça, Fernando P; Mouillot, David

    2016-04-13

    There is broad consensus that the diversity of functional traits within species assemblages drives several ecological processes. It is also widely recognized that rare species are the first to become extinct following human-induced disturbances. Surprisingly, however, the functional importance of rare species is still poorly understood, particularly in tropical species-rich assemblages where the majority of species are rare, and the rate of species extinction can be high. Here, we investigated the consequences of local and regional extinctions on the functional structure of species assemblages. We used three extensive datasets (stream fish from the Brazilian Amazon, rainforest trees from French Guiana, and birds from the Australian Wet Tropics) and built an integrative measure of species rarity versus commonness, combining local abundance, geographical range, and habitat breadth. Using different scenarios of species loss, we found a disproportionate impact of rare species extinction for the three groups, with significant reductions in levels of functional richness, specialization, and originality of assemblages, which may severely undermine the integrity of ecological processes. The whole breadth of functional abilities within species assemblages, which is disproportionately supported by rare species, is certainly critical in maintaining ecosystems particularly under the ongoing rapid environmental transitions. © 2016 The Author(s).

  15. Rare species contribute disproportionately to the functional structure of species assemblages

    PubMed Central

    Zuanon, Jansen; Williams, Stephen E.; Baraloto, Christopher; Mendonça, Fernando P.

    2016-01-01

    There is broad consensus that the diversity of functional traits within species assemblages drives several ecological processes. It is also widely recognized that rare species are the first to become extinct following human-induced disturbances. Surprisingly, however, the functional importance of rare species is still poorly understood, particularly in tropical species-rich assemblages where the majority of species are rare, and the rate of species extinction can be high. Here, we investigated the consequences of local and regional extinctions on the functional structure of species assemblages. We used three extensive datasets (stream fish from the Brazilian Amazon, rainforest trees from French Guiana, and birds from the Australian Wet Tropics) and built an integrative measure of species rarity versus commonness, combining local abundance, geographical range, and habitat breadth. Using different scenarios of species loss, we found a disproportionate impact of rare species extinction for the three groups, with significant reductions in levels of functional richness, specialization, and originality of assemblages, which may severely undermine the integrity of ecological processes. The whole breadth of functional abilities within species assemblages, which is disproportionately supported by rare species, is certainly critical in maintaining ecosystems particularly under the ongoing rapid environmental transitions. PMID:27053754

  16. The metoclopramide black box warning for tardive dyskinesia: effect on clinical practice, adverse event reporting, and prescription drug lawsuits.

    PubMed

    Ehrenpreis, Eli D; Deepak, Parakkal; Sifuentes, Humberto; Devi, Radha; Du, Hongyan; Leikin, Jerrold B

    2013-06-01

    We examined the effects of the black box warning about the risk of tardive dyskinesia (TD) with chronic use of metoclopramide on management of gastroparesis within a single clinical practice, and on reporting of adverse events. Medical records of gastroparesis patients were evaluated for physician management choices. The FDA Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS) was analyzed for event reports, and for lawyer-initiated reports, with metoclopramide from 2004 to 2010. Google Scholar was searched for court opinions against metoclopramide manufacturers. Before the black box warning, 69.8% of patients received metoclopramide for gastroparesis, compared with 23.7% after the warning. Gastroenterologists prescribed domperidone more often after than before the warning. Metoclopramide prescriptions decreased after 2008. Adverse event reporting increased after the warning. Only 3.6% of all FAERS reports but 70% of TD reports were filed by lawyers, suggesting a distortion in signal. Forty-seven legal opinions were identified, 33 from 2009-2010. The black box warning for metoclopramide has decreased its usage and increased its rate of adverse event reporting. Lawyer-initiated reports of TD hinder pharmacovigilance.

  17. Sensors Provide Early Warning of Biological Threats

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2009-01-01

    Early Warning Inc. of Troy, New York, licensed powerful biosensor technology from Ames Research Center. Incorporating carbon nanotubes tipped with single strands of nucleic acid from waterborne pathogens, the sensor can detect even minute amounts of targeted, disease causing bacteria, viruses, and parasites. Early Warning features the NASA biosensor in its water analyzer, which can provide advance alert of potential biological hazards in water used for agriculture, food and beverages, showers, and at beaches and lakes -- within hours instead of the days required by conventional laboratory methods.

  18. Potential of satellite-derived ecosystem functional attributes to anticipate species range shifts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Lomba, Angela; Sousa-Silva, Rita; Nieto-Lugilde, Diego; Alves, Paulo; Georges, Damien; Vicente, Joana R.; Honrado, João P.

    2017-05-01

    In a world facing rapid environmental changes, anticipating their impacts on biodiversity is of utmost relevance. Remotely-sensed Ecosystem Functional Attributes (EFAs) are promising predictors for Species Distribution Models (SDMs) by offering an early and integrative response of vegetation performance to environmental drivers. Species of high conservation concern would benefit the most from a better ability to anticipate changes in habitat suitability. Here we illustrate how yearly projections from SDMs based on EFAs could reveal short-term changes in potential habitat suitability, anticipating mid-term shifts predicted by climate-change-scenario models. We fitted two sets of SDMs for 41 plant species of conservation concern in the Iberian Peninsula: one calibrated with climate variables for baseline conditions and projected under two climate-change-scenarios (future conditions); and the other calibrated with EFAs for 2001 and projected annually from 2001 to 2013. Range shifts predicted by climate-based models for future conditions were compared to the 2001-2013 trends from EFAs-based models. Projections of EFAs-based models estimated changes (mostly contractions) in habitat suitability that anticipated, for the majority (up to 64%) of species, the mid-term shifts projected by traditional climate-change-scenario forecasting, and showed greater agreement with the business-as-usual scenario than with the sustainable-development one. This study shows how satellite-derived EFAs can be used as meaningful essential biodiversity variables in SDMs to provide early-warnings of range shifts and predictions of short-term fluctuations in suitable conditions for multiple species.

  19. Utility of warning signs in guiding admission and predicting severe disease in adult dengue

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background The recommendation from the 2009 World Health Organization guidelines for managing dengue suggests that patients with any warning sign can be hospitalized for observation and management. We evaluated the utility of using warning signs to guide hospital admission and predict disease progression in adults. Methods We conducted a prospective cohort study from January 2010 to September 2012. Daily demographic, clinical and laboratory data were collected from adult dengue patients. Warning signs were recorded. The proportion of admitted patients using current admission criteria and warning signs was compared. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of warning signs in predicting disease progression were also evaluated. Results Four hundred and ninety-nine patients with confirmed dengue were analyzed. Using warning signs instead of the current admission criteria will lead to a 44% and 31% increase in admission for DHF II-IV and SD cases respectively. The proportion of non-severe dengue cases which were admitted also increased by 32% for non DHF II-IV and 33% for non-SD cases. Absence of any warning signs had a NPV of 91%, 100% and 100% for DHF I-IV, DHF II-IV and SD. Of those who progressed to severe illness, 16.3% had warning signs on the same day while 51.3% had warning signs the day before developing severe illness, respectively. Conclusions Our findings demonstrated that patients without any warning signs can be managed safely with ambulatory care to reduce hospital resource burden. No single warning sign can independently predict disease progression. The window from onset of warning sign to severe illness in most cases was within one day. PMID:24152678

  20. Transit bus stop pedestrian warning application : acceptance test plan : final report.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2016-10-14

    This document is the Acceptance Test Plan for the Transit Bus Stop Pedestrian Warning (TSPW) application. This report describes the test and demonstration plan to verify that the application meets its functional and performance requirements.

  1. ForWarn: A Cross-Cutting Forest Resource Management and Decision Support System Providing the Capacity to Identify and Track Forest Disturbances Nationally

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hargrove, W. W.; Spruce, J.; Norman, S.; Christie, W.; Hoffman, F. M.

    2012-12-01

    The Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center and Western Wildland Environmental Assessment Center of the USDA Forest Service have collaborated with NASA Stennis Space Center to develop ForWarn, a forest monitoring tool that uses MODIS satellite imagery to produce weekly snapshots of vegetation conditions across the lower 48 United States. Forest and natural resource managers can use ForWarn to rapidly detect, identify, and respond to unexpected changes in the nation's forests caused by insects, diseases, wildfires, severe weather, or other natural or human-caused events. ForWarn detects most types of forest disturbances, including insects, disease, wildfires, frost and ice damage, tornadoes, hurricanes, blowdowns, harvest, urbanization, and landslides. It also detects drought, flood, and temperature effects, and shows early and delayed seasonal vegetation development. Operating continuously since January 2010, results show ForWarn to be a robust and highly capable tool for detecting changes in forest conditions. ForWarn is the first national-scale system of its kind based on remote sensing developed specifically for forest disturbances. It has operated as a prototype since January 2010 and has provided useful information about the location and extent of disturbances detected during the 2011 growing season, including tornadoes, wildfires, and extreme drought. The ForWarn system had an official unveiling and rollout in March 2012, initiated by a joint NASA and USDA press release. The ForWarn home page has had 2,632 unique visitors since rollout in March 2012, with 39% returning visits. ForWarn was used to map tornado scars from the historic April 27, 2011 tornado outbreak, and detected timber damage within more than a dozen tornado tracks across northern Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. ForWarn is the result of an ongoing, substantive cooperation among four different government agencies: USDA, NASA, USGS, and DOE. Disturbance maps are available on the web through the ForWarn Change Assessment Viewer at http://forwarn.forestthreats.org/fcav. No user id or password is required, and there is no cost. The Assessment Viewer operates within any popular web browser using nearly any type of computer. It lets users pan, zoom, and scroll around within ForWarn maps, and also contains an up-to-date library of co-registered, near real-time ancillary maps from diverse sources that allows users to assess the nature of particular forest disturbances and ascribe their most-likely causes. Users can check the current week's U.S. Drought Monitor, USGS VegDRI maps, FHM Historical Aerial Disturbance Surveys, MODIS Cumulative Current Year Fire Detections, and many others. A "Share this map" feature lets users save the current map view and extent into a web URL, so that users can easily share what they are looking at inside the Assessment Viewer with others via an email, a document, or a web page. The ForWarn Rapid National Assessment Team examined more than 60 ForWarn forest disturbance events in 2011-2012, and issued over 30 alerts. We hope to automate forest disturbance alerts and supply them through various subscription services. Forest owners and managers would only be alerted to disturbances occurring near their own forest resources.

  2. Response time effects of alerting tone and semantic context for synthesized voice cockpit warnings

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Simpson, C. A.; Williams, D. H.

    1980-01-01

    Some handbooks and human factors design guides have recommended that a voice warning should be preceded by a tone to attract attention to the warning. As far as can be determined from a search of the literature, no experimental evidence supporting this exists. A fixed-base simulator flown by airline pilots was used to test the hypothesis that the total 'system-time' to respond to a synthesized voice cockpit warning would be longer when the message was preceded by a tone because the voice itself was expected to perform both the alerting and the information transfer functions. The simulation included realistic ATC radio voice communications, synthesized engine noise, cockpit conversation, and realistic flight routes. The effect of a tone before a voice warning was to lengthen response time; that is, responses were slower with an alerting tone. Lengthening the voice warning with another work, however, did not increase response time.

  3. Main components and characteristics of landslide early warning systems operational worldwide

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piciullo, Luca; Cepeda, José

    2017-04-01

    During the last decades the number of victims and economic losses due to natural hazards are dramatically increased worldwide. The reason can be mainly ascribed to climate changes and urbanization in areas exposed at high level of risk. Among the many mitigation measures available for reducing the risk to life related to natural hazards, early warning systems certainly constitute a significant cost-effective option available to the authorities in charge of risk management and governance. The aim is to help and protect populations exposed to natural hazards, reducing fatalities when major events occur. Landslide is one of the natural hazards addressed by early warning systems. Landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) are mainly composed by the following four components: set-up, correlation laws, decisional algorithm and warning management. Within this framework, the set-up includes all the preliminary actions and choices necessary for designing a LEWS, such as: the area covered by the system, the types of landslides and the monitoring instruments. The monitoring phase provides a series of important information on different variables, considered as triggering factors for landslides, in order to define correlation laws and thresholds. Then, a decisional algorithm is necessary for defining the: number of warning levels to be employed in the system, decision making procedures, and everything else system managers may need for issuing warnings in different warning zones. Finally the warning management is composed by: monitoring and warning strategy; communication strategy; emergency plan and, everything connected to the social sphere. Among LEWSs operational worldwide, two categories can be defined as a function of the scale of analysis: "local" and "territorial" systems. The scale of analysis influences several actions and aspects connected to the design and employment of the system, such as: the actors involved, the monitoring systems, type of landslide phenomena addressed and variables to be considered for correlations. The characteristics of LEWSs at local scale are strongly affected by numerous constraints and factors, from time to time different, related to the characteristics of the problem they address. Monitoring measures, variables and correlation laws considered for the design and employment of local LEWSs, strongly depends on the type of landslide to be addressed. On the other hand, territorial LEWSs mainly deals with rainfall-induced landslides characterized by fast slope movement. These systems have become a risk management approach, employed worldwide over areas of relevant extension. Before 2005 only few experiences of LEWSs at a regional scale were carried out, such as in: Hong Kong, China; Zhejiang Province, China; San Francisco Bay, California, USA; Appalachians, USA; Oregon, USA; Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Since the beginning of the XXI century, increased knowledge on rainfall-landslide correlations and upgraded technologies in weather forecast have promoted the development and improvement of territorial LEWSs around the world.

  4. Evaluating the effectiveness of regulatory and warning signs on driver behavior near highway/rail crossings : research project capsule.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2016-12-01

    The primary objective of this research project is to evaluate the effectiveness of regulatory and warning signs on driver behavior : by analyzing their effectiveness in reducing instances of stopped vehicles within the dynamic envelope zone (i.e., th...

  5. A Müllerian mimicry ring in Appalachian millipedes.

    PubMed

    Marek, Paul E; Bond, Jason E

    2009-06-16

    Few biological phenomena provide such an elegant and straightforward example of evolution by natural selection as color mimicry among unrelated organisms. By mimicking the appearance of a heavily defended aposematic species, members of a second species gain protection from predators and, potentially, enhanced fitness. Mimicking a preexisting warning advertisement is economical because a potentially costly novel one can be avoided; simultaneously, the addition of more aposematic individuals enhances the overall warning effect. The better-known mimetic systems comprise tropical taxa, but here, we show a remarkable example of color mimicry in 7 species of blind, cyanide-generating millipedes endemic to the Appalachian Mountains of temperate North America. Because these millipedes lack eyes, there is no sexual selection or intraspecific signaling for coloration, providing an ideal system for mimicry studies. We document a Müllerian symbiosis where unrelated species vary in color and pattern over geographical space but appear identical where they co-occur. By using spectral color data, estimations of evolutionary history, and detailed field observations of species abundance, we test 4 predictions of Müllerian mimicry theory and begin to unravel the story of an elaborate mimetic diversification in the forests of Appalachia.

  6. A Müllerian mimicry ring in Appalachian millipedes

    PubMed Central

    Marek, Paul E.; Bond, Jason E.

    2009-01-01

    Few biological phenomena provide such an elegant and straightforward example of evolution by natural selection as color mimicry among unrelated organisms. By mimicking the appearance of a heavily defended aposematic species, members of a second species gain protection from predators and, potentially, enhanced fitness. Mimicking a preexisting warning advertisement is economical because a potentially costly novel one can be avoided; simultaneously, the addition of more aposematic individuals enhances the overall warning effect. The better-known mimetic systems comprise tropical taxa, but here, we show a remarkable example of color mimicry in 7 species of blind, cyanide-generating millipedes endemic to the Appalachian Mountains of temperate North America. Because these millipedes lack eyes, there is no sexual selection or intraspecific signaling for coloration, providing an ideal system for mimicry studies. We document a Müllerian symbiosis where unrelated species vary in color and pattern over geographical space but appear identical where they co-occur. By using spectral color data, estimations of evolutionary history, and detailed field observations of species abundance, we test 4 predictions of Müllerian mimicry theory and begin to unravel the story of an elaborate mimetic diversification in the forests of Appalachia. PMID:19487663

  7. Species, functional groups, and thresholds in ecological resilience

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sundstrom, Shana M.; Allen, Craig R.; Barichievy, Chris

    2012-01-01

    The cross-scale resilience model states that ecological resilience is generated in part from the distribution of functions within and across scales in a system. Resilience is a measure of a system's ability to remain organized around a particular set of mutually reinforcing processes and structures, known as a regime. We define scale as the geographic extent over which a process operates and the frequency with which a process occurs. Species can be categorized into functional groups that are a link between ecosystem processes and structures and ecological resilience. We applied the cross-scale resilience model to avian species in a grassland ecosystem. A species’ morphology is shaped in part by its interaction with ecological structure and pattern, so animal body mass reflects the spatial and temporal distribution of resources. We used the log-transformed rank-ordered body masses of breeding birds associated with grasslands to identify aggregations and discontinuities in the distribution of those body masses. We assessed cross-scale resilience on the basis of 3 metrics: overall number of functional groups, number of functional groups within an aggregation, and the redundancy of functional groups across aggregations. We assessed how the loss of threatened species would affect cross-scale resilience by removing threatened species from the data set and recalculating values of the 3 metrics. We also determined whether more function was retained than expected after the loss of threatened species by comparing observed loss with simulated random loss in a Monte Carlo process. The observed distribution of function compared with the random simulated loss of function indicated that more functionality in the observed data set was retained than expected. On the basis of our results, we believe an ecosystem with a full complement of species can sustain considerable species losses without affecting the distribution of functions within and across aggregations, although ecological resilience is reduced. We propose that the mechanisms responsible for shaping discontinuous distributions of body mass and the nonrandom distribution of functions may also shape species losses such that local extinctions will be nonrandom with respect to the retention and distribution of functions and that the distribution of function within and across aggregations will be conserved despite extinctions.

  8. Can mass media influence emergency department visits for stroke?

    PubMed

    Hodgson, Corinne; Lindsay, Patrice; Rubini, Frank

    2007-07-01

    Television advertising has been associated with significant increases in the knowledge of the warning signs of stroke among Ontarians aged 45 and older. However, to date there has been little data on the relationship between knowledge of the warning signs of stroke and behavior. Data on presentation to regional and enhanced district stroke center emergency departments were obtained from the Registry of the Canadian Stroke Network for a 31-month period between mid 2003 and the beginning of 2006. Public opinion polling was used to track knowledge of the warning signs of stroke among Ontarians aged 45 and older. The public's awareness of the warning signs of stroke increased during 2003 to 2005, decreasing in 2006 after a 5-month advertising blackout. There was a significant increase in the mean number of emergency department visits for stroke over the study period. A campaign effect independent of year was observed for total presentations, presentation within 5 hours of last seen normal, and presentation within 2.5 hours. For TIAs there was a strong campaign effect but no change in the number of presentations by year. Continuous advertising may be required to build and sustain public awareness of the warning signs of stroke. There are many factors that may influence presentation for stroke and awareness of the warning signs may be only one. However, results of this study suggest there may be an important correlation between the advertising and emergency department presentations with stroke, particularly for TIAs.

  9. Eye movement and brake reactions to real world brake-capacity forward collision warnings--a naturalistic driving study.

    PubMed

    Wege, Claudia; Will, Sebastian; Victor, Trent

    2013-09-01

    The purpose of this field operational test study is to assess visual attention allocation and brake reactions in response to a brake-capacity forward collision warning (B-FCW), which is designed similarly to all forward collision warnings on the market for trucks. Truck drivers' reactions immediately after the warning (threat-period) as well as a few seconds after the warning (post-threat-recovery-period) are analyzed, both with and without taking into consideration the predictability of an event and driver distraction. A B-FCW system interface should immediately direct visual attention toward the threat and allow the driver to make a quick decision about whether or not to brake. To investigate eye movement reactions, we analyzed glances 30s before and 15s after 60 naturally occurring collision warning events. The B-FCW events were extracted from the Volvo euroFOT database, which contains data from 30 Volvo trucks driving for approximately 40000 h for four million kilometers. Statistical analyses show that a B-FCW leads to immediate attention allocation toward the roadway and drivers hit the brake. In addition to this intended effect during the threat-period, a rather unexpected effect within the post-threat-recovery-period was discovered in unpredictable events and events with distracted drivers. A few seconds after a warning is issued, eye movements are directed away from the road toward the warning source in the instrument cluster. This potentially indicates that the driver is seeking to understand the circumstances of the warning. Potential reasons for this are discussed: properties relating to the termination of the warning information, the position of the visual and/or audio warning, the conspicuity of the warning, the duration of the warning, and the modality of the warning. The present results are particularly valuable because all on-market collision warning systems in trucks (and almost all in cars) involve visual warnings positioned in the instrument cluster like the one in this study. Acknowledging the fact that human machine interface (HMI)-design is challenging, the conclusions lead the way toward HMI design recommendations for collision warning systems. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Early Warning for Large Magnitude Earthquakes: Is it feasible?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zollo, A.; Colombelli, S.; Kanamori, H.

    2011-12-01

    The mega-thrust, Mw 9.0, 2011 Tohoku earthquake has re-opened the discussion among the scientific community about the effectiveness of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems, when applied to such large events. Many EEW systems are now under-testing or -development worldwide and most of them are based on the real-time measurement of ground motion parameters in a few second window after the P-wave arrival. Currently, we are using the initial Peak Displacement (Pd), and the Predominant Period (τc), among other parameters, to rapidly estimate the earthquake magnitude and damage potential. A well known problem about the real-time estimation of the magnitude is the parameter saturation. Several authors have shown that the scaling laws between early warning parameters and magnitude are robust and effective up to magnitude 6.5-7; the correlation, however, has not yet been verified for larger events. The Tohoku earthquake occurred near the East coast of Honshu, Japan, on the subduction boundary between the Pacific and the Okhotsk plates. The high quality Kik- and K- networks provided a large quantity of strong motion records of the mainshock, with a wide azimuthal coverage both along the Japan coast and inland. More than 300 3-component accelerograms have been available, with an epicentral distance ranging from about 100 km up to more than 500 km. This earthquake thus presents an optimal case study for testing the physical bases of early warning and to investigate the feasibility of a real-time estimation of earthquake size and damage potential even for M > 7 earthquakes. In the present work we used the acceleration waveform data of the main shock for stations along the coast, up to 200 km epicentral distance. We measured the early warning parameters, Pd and τc, within different time windows, starting from 3 seconds, and expanding the testing time window up to 30 seconds. The aim is to verify the correlation of these parameters with Peak Ground Velocity and Magnitude, respectively, as a function of the length of the P-wave window. The entire rupture process of the Tohoku earthquake lasted more than 120 seconds, as shown by the source time functions obtained by several authors. When a 3 second window is used to measure Pd and τc the result is an obvious underestimation of the event size and final PGV. However, as the time window increases up to 27-30 seconds, the measured values of Pd and τc become comparable with those expected for a magnitude M≥8.5 earthquake, according to the τc vs. M and the PGV vs. Pd relationships obtained in a previous work. Since we did not observe any saturation effect for the predominant period and peak displacement measured within a P-wave, 30-seconds window, we infer that, at least from a theoretical point of view, the estimation of earthquake damage potential through the early warning parameters is still feasible for large events, provided that a longer time window is used for parameter measurement. The off-line analysis of the Tohoku event records shows that reliable estimations of the damage potential could have been obtained 40-50 seconds after the origin time, by updating the measurements of the early warning parameters in progressively enlarged P-wave time windows from 3 to 30 seconds.

  11. Self-reported awareness of the presence of product warning messages and signs by Hispanics in San Francisco.

    PubMed Central

    Marín, G

    1994-01-01

    This study investigated the self-reported awareness of the presence of product warning messages and signs among random samples of Hispanics in San Francisco surveyed in 1990 and in 1991. The messages that were tested related to cigarettes, alcoholic beverages, and other consumer products. A random sample of 1,204 Hispanics (43.5 percent males) were interviewed by telephone in 1990. The corresponding figure for the second survey in 1991 was 1,569 Hispanics (41.1 percent males). In general, respondents reported low levels of awareness of the presence of product warning messages and signs. The exception was warning messages on cigarette packets which approximately 70 percent of the respondents reported having seen within the 12 months before the survey. There was an increase from 1990 to 1991 in the reported awareness of warning messages for wine, beer, and cigarettes. Smokers and drinkers of alcoholic beverages reported the highest levels of awareness of the relevant warning messages and signs. Length of exposure to warning messages and multiplicity of sources (for example, advertisements and products) seem to produce greater levels of awareness of the presence of product warning messages. Less acculturated, Spanish-speaking Hispanics are less likely to report being aware of the warnings, particularly those that appear only in English (for example, alcoholic beverages). PMID:8153279

  12. Effectiveness of text versus pictorial health warning labels and predictors of support for plain packaging of tobacco products within the European Union.

    PubMed

    Agaku, Israel T; Filippidis, Filippos T; Vardavas, Constantine I

    2015-01-01

    Tobacco product warning labels are a key health communication medium with plain packaging noted as the next step in the evolution of tobacco packaging. We assessed the self-reported impact of text versus pictorial health warnings and the determinants of support for plain packaging of tobacco products in the European Union (EU). The Special Eurobarometer 385 survey was analyzed for 26,566 adults from 27 EU countries in 2012. The self-reported impact of warning labels (text or pictorial) and determinants of EU-wide support for plain packaging were assessed using multivariate logistic regression. Current smokers in countries where cigarette pictorial warnings were implemented had higher odds of reporting that health warning labels had any effect on their smoking behavior (making a quit attempt or reducing number of cigarettes smoked per day) compared to respondents in countries with text-only warning labels (adjusted odds ratio, aOR = 1.31; 95% confidence interval, 95% CI: 1.10-1.56). Population support for plain packaging of tobacco packs was higher in countries where cigarette pictorial warnings already existed (aOR = 1.17; 95% CI: 1.07-1.28). These findings indicate that the implementation of pictorial warnings at an EU level may have a positive behavioral impact among smokers and pave the way for population support for plain packaging in the EU.

  13. Landslide risk mitigation by means of early warning systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calvello, Michele

    2017-04-01

    Among the many options available to mitigate landslide risk, early warning systems may be used where, in specific circumstances, the risk to life increases above tolerable levels. A coherent framework to classify and analyse landslide early warning systems (LEWS) is herein presented. Once the objectives of an early warning strategy are defined depending on the scale of analysis and the type of landslides to address, the process of designing and managing a LEWS should synergically employ technical and social skills. A classification scheme for the main components of LEWSs is proposed for weather-induced landslides. The scheme is based on a clear distinction among: i) the landslide model, i.e. a functional relationship between weather characteristics and landslide events considering the geotechnical, geomorphological and hydro-geological characterization of the area as well as an adequate monitoring strategy; ii) the warning model, i.e. the landslide model plus procedures to define the warning events and to issue the warnings; iii) the warning system, i.e. the warning model plus warning dissemination procedures, communication and education tools, strategies for community involvement and emergency plans. Each component of a LEWS is related to a number of actors involved with their deployment, operational activities and management. For instance, communication and education, community involvement and emergency plans are all significantly influenced by people's risk perception and by operational aspects system managers need to address in cooperation with scientists.

  14. Neural mechanisms underlying visual attention to health warnings on branded and plain cigarette packs

    PubMed Central

    Brooks, Jonathan C. W.; Munafò, Marcus R.; Leonards, Ute

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Aims To (1) test if activation in brain regions related to reward (nucleus accumbens) and emotion (amygdala) differ when branded and plain packs of cigarettes are viewed, (2) test whether these activation patterns differ by smoking status and (3) examine whether activation patterns differ as a function of visual attention to health warning labels on cigarette packs. Design Cross‐sectional observational study combining functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) with eye‐tracking. Non‐smokers, weekly smokers and daily smokers performed a memory task on branded and plain cigarette packs with pictorial health warnings presented in an event‐related design. Setting Clinical Research and Imaging Centre, University of Bristol, UK. Participants Non‐smokers, weekly smokers and daily smokers (n = 72) were tested. After exclusions, data from 19 non‐smokers, 19 weekly smokers and 20 daily smokers were analysed. Measurements Brain activity was assessed in whole brain analyses and in pre‐specified masked analyses in the amygdala and nucleus accumbens. On‐line eye‐tracking during scanning recorded visual attention to health warnings. Findings There was no evidence for a main effect of pack type or smoking status in either the nucleus accumbens or amygdala, and this was unchanged when taking account of visual attention to health warnings. However, there was evidence for an interaction, such that we observed increased activation in the right amygdala when viewing branded as compared with plain packs among weekly smokers (P = 0.003). When taking into account visual attention to health warnings, we observed higher levels of activation in the visual cortex in response to plain packaging compared with branded packaging of cigarettes (P = 0.020). Conclusions Based on functional magnetic resonance imaging and eye‐tracking data, health warnings appear to be more salient on ‘plain’ cigarette packs than branded packs. PMID:27886656

  15. Civil Protection Practitioners' Response to Introducing Nowcasting in Weather Warnings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ulbrich, Thorsten

    2014-05-01

    The HErZ project WEXICOM (Improving the process of weather warnings and extreme weather information in the chain from the meteorological forecasts to their communication for the Berlin conurbation) assesses the communication and use of weather warnings. In cooperation with DWD we conducted two online surveys with German relief forces before and after a nowcasting application was introduced into the weather warning platform FEWIS. The aim is to investigate how relief workers make use of the additional information. DWD supports German civil protection by providing the warning platform FeWIS (Fire brigade Weather Information System) for registered relief workers. The platform provides information on meteorological hazards needed to take precautions and to support rescue actions. In June 2013 DWD added nowcasted estimates of storm attributes including warning cones based on a 1x1 km grid. The tool named "GewitterMonitor" is based on NowcastMIX and uses short-term weather models and observations to derive warnings with high precision on intensity, location and timing of thunder storm cells for the following two hours. A first survey provided prior to the addition of nowcasted information investigates how users benefit from FeWIS and how they perceive its functionality and reliability. Following the introduction users gain experience applying the nowcasting tool in the thunderstorm season 2013. In Winter 2013/2014 we conducted another online survey. The post-survey comprises questions on the use of the GewitterMonitor and on how the tool supports relief forces in responding to meteorological risks. The post survey also repeats questions on the perception of functionality and function of FeWIS and poses questions derived from the previous survey. This second survey collects practitioners feedback on GewitterMonitor and allows to detect changes in how users perceive the performance of FeWIS after the addition by relating responses to the prior survey.

  16. Neural mechanisms underlying visual attention to health warnings on branded and plain cigarette packs.

    PubMed

    Maynard, Olivia M; Brooks, Jonathan C W; Munafò, Marcus R; Leonards, Ute

    2017-04-01

    To (1) test if activation in brain regions related to reward (nucleus accumbens) and emotion (amygdala) differ when branded and plain packs of cigarettes are viewed, (2) test whether these activation patterns differ by smoking status and (3) examine whether activation patterns differ as a function of visual attention to health warning labels on cigarette packs. Cross-sectional observational study combining functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) with eye-tracking. Non-smokers, weekly smokers and daily smokers performed a memory task on branded and plain cigarette packs with pictorial health warnings presented in an event-related design. Clinical Research and Imaging Centre, University of Bristol, UK. Non-smokers, weekly smokers and daily smokers (n = 72) were tested. After exclusions, data from 19 non-smokers, 19 weekly smokers and 20 daily smokers were analysed. Brain activity was assessed in whole brain analyses and in pre-specified masked analyses in the amygdala and nucleus accumbens. On-line eye-tracking during scanning recorded visual attention to health warnings. There was no evidence for a main effect of pack type or smoking status in either the nucleus accumbens or amygdala, and this was unchanged when taking account of visual attention to health warnings. However, there was evidence for an interaction, such that we observed increased activation in the right amygdala when viewing branded as compared with plain packs among weekly smokers (P = 0.003). When taking into account visual attention to health warnings, we observed higher levels of activation in the visual cortex in response to plain packaging compared with branded packaging of cigarettes (P = 0.020). Based on functional magnetic resonance imaging and eye-tracking data, health warnings appear to be more salient on 'plain' cigarette packs than branded packs. © 2016 The Authors. Addiction published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society for the Study of Addiction.

  17. Ethical dilemmas related to predictions and warnings of impending natural disaster.

    PubMed

    Phua, Kai-Lit; Hue, J W

    2013-01-01

    Scientists and policy makers issuing predictions and warnings of impending natural disaster are faced with two major challenges, that is, failure to warn and issuing a false alarm. The consequences of failure to warn can be serious for society overall, for example, significant economic losses, heavy infrastructure and environmental damage, large number of human casualties, and social disruption. Failure to warn can also have serious for specific individuals, for example, legal proceedings against disaster research scientists, as in the L'Aquila earthquake affair. The consequences of false alarms may be less serious. Nevertheless, false alarms may violate the principle of nonmaleficence (do no harm), affect individual autonomy (eg, mandatory evacuations), and may result in the "cry wolf" effect. Other ethical issues associated with natural disasters include the promotion of global justice through international predisaster technical assistance and postdisaster aid. Social justice within a particular country is promoted through greater postdisaster aid allocation to the less privileged.

  18. Four odontocete species change hearing levels when warned of impending loud sound.

    PubMed

    Nachtigall, Paul E; Supin, Alexander Ya; Pacini, Aude F; Kastelein, Ronald A

    2018-03-01

    Hearing sensitivity change was investigated when a warning sound preceded a loud sound in the false killer whale (Pseudorca crassidens), the bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus), the beluga whale (Delphinaperus leucas) and the harbor porpoise (Phocoena phocoena). Hearing sensitivity was measured using pip-train test stimuli and auditory evoked potential recording. When the test/warning stimuli preceded a loud sound, hearing thresholds before the loud sound increased relative to the baseline by 13 to 17 dB. Experiments with multiple frequencies of exposure and shift provided evidence of different amounts of hearing change depending on frequency, indicating that the hearing sensation level changes were not likely due to a simple stapedial reflex. © 2017 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  19. Auditory Warnings, Signal-Referent Relations, and Natural Indicators: Re-Thinking Theory and Application

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Petocz, Agnes; Keller, Peter E.; Stevens, Catherine J.

    2008-01-01

    In auditory warning design the idea of the strength of the association between sound and referent has been pivotal. Research has proceeded via constructing classification systems of signal-referent associations and then testing predictions about ease of learning of different levels of signal-referent relation strength across and within different…

  20. Non-invasive, home-based electroencephalography hypoglycaemia warning system for personal monitoring using skin surface electrodes: a single-case feasibility study.

    PubMed

    Clewett, Christopher J; Langley, Phillip; Bateson, Anthony D; Asghar, Aziz; Wilkinson, Antony J

    2016-03-01

    Hypoglycaemia unawareness is a common condition associated with increased risk of severe hypoglycaemia. The purpose of the authors' study was to develop a simple to use, home-based and non-invasive hypoglycaemia warning system based on electroencephalography (EEG), and to demonstrate its use in a single-case feasibility study. A participant with type 1 diabetes forms a single-person case study where blood sugar levels and EEG were recorded. EEG was recorded using skin surface electrodes placed behind the ear located within the T3 region by the participant in the home. EEG was analysed retrospectively to develop an algorithm which would trigger a warning if EEG changes associated with hypoglycaemia onset were detected. All hypoglycaemia events were detected by the EEG hypoglycaemia warning algorithm. Warnings were triggered with blood glucose concentration levels at or below 4.2 mmol/l in this participant and no warnings were issued when in euglycaemia. The feasibility of a non-invasive EEG-based hypoglycaemia warning system for personal monitoring in the home has been demonstrated in a single case study. The results suggest that further studies are warranted to evaluate the system prospectively in a larger group of participants.

  1. Novel Algorithms Enabling Rapid, Real-Time Earthquake Monitoring and Tsunami Early Warning Worldwide

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lomax, A.; Michelini, A.

    2012-12-01

    We have introduced recently new methods to determine rapidly the tsunami potential and magnitude of large earthquakes (e.g., Lomax and Michelini, 2009ab, 2011, 2012). To validate these methods we have implemented them along with other new algorithms within the Early-est earthquake monitor at INGV-Rome (http://early-est.rm.ingv.it, http://early-est.alomax.net). Early-est is a lightweight software package for real-time earthquake monitoring (including phase picking, phase association and event detection, location, magnitude determination, first-motion mechanism determination, ...), and for tsunami early warning based on discriminants for earthquake tsunami potential. In a simulation using archived broadband seismograms for the devastating M9, 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, Early-est determines: the epicenter within 3 min after the event origin time, discriminants showing very high tsunami potential within 5-7 min, and magnitude Mwpd(RT) 9.0-9.2 and a correct shallow-thrusting mechanism within 8 min. Real-time monitoring with Early-est givess similar results for most large earthquakes using currently available, real-time seismogram data. Here we summarize some of the key algorithms within Early-est that enable rapid, real-time earthquake monitoring and tsunami early warning worldwide: >>> FilterPicker - a general purpose, broad-band, phase detector and picker (http://alomax.net/FilterPicker); >>> Robust, simultaneous association and location using a probabilistic, global-search; >>> Period-duration discriminants TdT0 and TdT50Ex for tsunami potential available within 5 min; >>> Mwpd(RT) magnitude for very large earthquakes available within 10 min; >>> Waveform P polarities determined on broad-band displacement traces, focal mechanisms obtained with the HASH program (Hardebeck and Shearer, 2002); >>> SeisGramWeb - a portable-device ready seismogram viewer using web-services in a browser (http://alomax.net/webtools/sgweb/info.html). References (see also: http://alomax.net/pub_list.html): Lomax, A. and A. Michelini (2012), Tsunami early warning within 5 minutes, Pure and Applied Geophysics, 169, nnn-nnn, doi: 10.1007/s00024-012-0512-6. Lomax, A. and A. Michelini (2011), Tsunami early warning using earthquake rupture duration and P-wave dominant period: the importance of length and depth of faulting, Geophys. J. Int., 185, 283-291, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2010.04916.x. Lomax, A. and A. Michelini (2009b), Tsunami early warning using earthquake rupture duration, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L09306, doi:10.1029/2009GL037223. Lomax, A. and A. Michelini (2009a), Mwpd: A Duration-Amplitude Procedure for Rapid Determination of Earthquake Magnitude and Tsunamigenic Potential from P Waveforms, Geophys. J. Int.,176, 200-214, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2008.03974.x

  2. Variations in disaster evacuation behavior: public responses versus private sector executive decision-making processes.

    PubMed

    Drabek, T E

    1992-06-01

    Data obtained from 65 executives working for tourism firms in three sample communities permitted comparison with the public warning response literature regarding three topics: disaster evacuation planning, initial warning responses, and disaster evacuation behavior. Disaster evacuation planning was reported by nearly all of these business executives, although it was highly variable in content, completeness, and formality. Managerial responses to post-disaster warnings paralleled the type of complex social processes that have been documented within the public response literature, except that warning sources and confirmation behavior were significantly affected by contact with authorities. Five key areas of difference were discovered in disaster evacuation behavior pertaining to: influence of planning, firm versus family priorities, shelter selection, looting concerns, and media contacts.

  3. People-centred landslide early warning systems in the context of risk management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haß, S.; Asch, K.; Fernandez-Steeger, T.; Arnhardt, C.

    2009-04-01

    In the current hazard research people-centred warning becomes more and more important, because different types of organizations and groups have to be involved in the warning process. This fact has to be taken into account when developing early warning systems. The effectiveness of early warning depends not only on technical capabilities but also on the preparedness of decision makers and their immediate response on how to act in case of emergency. Hence early warning systems have to be regarded in the context of an integrated and holistic risk management. Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) measures include people-centred, timely and understandable warning. Further responsible authorities have to be identified in advance and standards for risk communication have to be established. Up to now, hazard and risk assessment for geohazards focuses on the development of inventory, susceptibility, hazard and risk maps. But often, especially in Europe, there are no institutional structures for managing geohazards and in addition there is a lack of an authority that is legally obliged to alarm on landslides at national or regional level. One of the main characteristics within the warning process for natural hazards e.g. in Germany is the split of responsibility between scientific authorities (wissenschaftliche Fachbehörde) and enforcement authorities (Vollzugsbehörde). The scientific authority provides the experts who define the methods and measures for monitoring and evaluate the hazard level. The main focus is the acquisition and evaluation of data and subsequently the distribution of information. The enforcement authority issues official warnings about dangerous natural phenomena. Hence the information chain in the context of early warning ranges over two different institutions, the forecast service and the warning service. But there doesn't exist a framework for warning processes in terms of landslides as yet. The concept for managing natural disasters is often reduced to hazard assessment and emergency response. Great importance is attached to the scientific understanding of hazards and protective structures, while analysis of socio-economic impacts and risk assessment are not considered enough. The reduction of vulnerability has to be taken into greater account. Also the information needs of different stakeholders have to be identified at an early stage and should be integrated in the development of early warning systems. The content of the warning message must be simple, understandable and should cover instructions on how to react. Further the timeliness of the messages has to be guarented. In this context the aim of the landslide monitoring and early warning system SLEWS (Sensor Based Landslide Early Warning System) is to integrate the above mentioned aspects of a holistic disaster and risk management. The technology of spatial data infrastructures and web services provides the use of multiple communication channels within an early warning system. Thus people-centred early warning messages and information about slope stability can be sent in nearly real-time. It has to be underlined that the technological information process is just one element of an effective warning system. Moreover the warning system has also to be considered as a social system and has to make allowance to socio-economic and gender aspects : «[...] Develop early warning systems that are people centered, in particular systems whose warnings are timely and understandable to those at risk, which take into account the demographic, gender, cultural and livelihood characteristics of the target audiences, including guidance on how to act upon warnings, and that support effective operations by disaster managers and other decision makers » (Hyogo Framework, 2005) References : UNITED NATIONS INTERNATIONAL STRATEGY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION SECRETARIAT (UNISDR) (2006): Developing early warning systems: a checklist, Third international conference on early warning (EWC III): from concept to action: 27-29 March 2006, Bonn, Germany. Geneva, Switzerland: International Strategy for Disaster Reduction. WORLD CONFERENCE ON DISASTER REDUCTION (2005) : Report of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction: Kobe, Hyogo, Japan, 18-22 January 2005. Geneva, Switzerland, Secretariat, World Conference on Disaster Reduction. INTER-AGENCY SECRETARIAT OF THE ISDR & GLOBAL PLATFORM FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTION (2007): Disaster risk reduction: 2007 global review. Geneva, UN, ISDR.

  4. Intraspecific Polymorphism, Interspecific Divergence, and the Origins of Function-Altering Mutations in Deer Mouse Hemoglobin

    PubMed Central

    Natarajan, Chandrasekhar; Hoffmann, Federico G.; Lanier, Hayley C.; Wolf, Cole J.; Cheviron, Zachary A.; Spangler, Matthew L.; Weber, Roy E.; Fago, Angela; Storz, Jay F.

    2015-01-01

    Major challenges for illuminating the genetic basis of phenotypic evolution are to identify causative mutations, to quantify their functional effects, to trace their origins as new or preexisting variants, and to assess the manner in which segregating variation is transduced into species differences. Here, we report an experimental analysis of genetic variation in hemoglobin (Hb) function within and among species of Peromyscus mice that are native to different elevations. A multilocus survey of sequence variation in the duplicated HBA and HBB genes in Peromyscus maniculatus revealed that function-altering amino acid variants are widely shared among geographically disparate populations from different elevations, and numerous amino acid polymorphisms are also shared with closely related species. Variation in Hb-O2 affinity within and among populations of P. maniculatus is attributable to numerous amino acid mutations that have individually small effects. One especially surprising feature of the Hb polymorphism in P. maniculatus is that an appreciable fraction of functional standing variation in the two transcriptionally active HBA paralogs is attributable to recurrent gene conversion from a tandemly linked HBA pseudogene. Moreover, transpecific polymorphism in the duplicated HBA genes is not solely attributable to incomplete lineage sorting or introgressive hybridization; instead, it is mainly attributable to recurrent interparalog gene conversion that has occurred independently in different species. Partly as a result of concerted evolution between tandemly duplicated globin genes, the same amino acid changes that contribute to variation in Hb function within P. maniculatus also contribute to divergence in Hb function among different species of Peromyscus. In the case of function-altering Hb mutations in Peromyscus, there is no qualitative or quantitative distinction between segregating variants within species and fixed differences between species. PMID:25556236

  5. Critical slowing down as early warning for the onset of collapse in mutualistic communities.

    PubMed

    Dakos, Vasilis; Bascompte, Jordi

    2014-12-09

    Tipping points are crossed when small changes in external conditions cause abrupt unexpected responses in the current state of a system. In the case of ecological communities under stress, the risk of approaching a tipping point is unknown, but its stakes are high. Here, we test recently developed critical slowing-down indicators as early-warning signals for detecting the proximity to a potential tipping point in structurally complex ecological communities. We use the structure of 79 empirical mutualistic networks to simulate a scenario of gradual environmental change that leads to an abrupt first extinction event followed by a sequence of species losses until the point of complete community collapse. We find that critical slowing-down indicators derived from time series of biomasses measured at the species and community level signal the proximity to the onset of community collapse. In particular, we identify specialist species as likely the best-indicator species for monitoring the proximity of a community to collapse. In addition, trends in slowing-down indicators are strongly correlated to the timing of species extinctions. This correlation offers a promising way for mapping species resilience and ranking species risk to extinction in a given community. Our findings pave the road for combining theory on tipping points with patterns of network structure that might prove useful for the management of a broad class of ecological networks under global environmental change.

  6. Clinical significance of automatic warning function of cardiac remote monitoring systems in preventing acute cardiac episodes

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Shou-Qiang; Xing, Shan-Shan; Gao, Hai-Qing

    2014-01-01

    Objective: In addition to ambulatory Holter electrocardiographic recording and transtelephonic electrocardiographic monitoring (TTM), a cardiac remote monitoring system can provide an automatic warning function through the general packet radio service (GPRS) network, enabling earlier diagnosis, treatment and improved outcome of cardiac diseases. The purpose of this study was to estimate its clinical significance in preventing acute cardiac episodes. Methods: Using 2 leads (V1 and V5 leads) and the automatic warning mode, 7160 patients were tested with a cardiac remote monitoring system from October 2004 to September 2007. If malignant arrhythmias or obvious ST-T changes appeared in the electrocardiogram records was automatically transferred to the monitoring center, the patient and his family members were informed, and the corresponding precautionary or therapeutic measures were implemented immediately. Results: In our study, 274 cases of malignant arrhythmia, including sinus standstill and ventricular tachycardia, and 43 cases of obvious ST-segment elevation were detected and treated. Because of early detection, there was no death or deformity. Conclusions: A cardiac remote monitoring system providing an automatic warning function can play an important role in preventing acute cardiac episodes. PMID:25674124

  7. Tsunami Warning Services for the U.S. and Canadian Atlantic Coasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whitmore, P. M.; Knight, W.

    2008-12-01

    In January 2005, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) developed a tsunami warning program for the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts. Within a year, this program extended further to the Atlantic coast of Canada and the Caribbean Sea. Warning services are provided to U.S. and Canadian coasts (including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands) by the NOAA/West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) while the NOAA/Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) provides services for non-U.S. entities in the Caribbean Basin. The Puerto Rico Seismic Network (PRSN) is also an active partner in the Caribbean Basin warning system. While the nature of the tsunami threat in the Atlantic Basin is different than in the Pacific, the warning system philosophy is similar. That is, initial messages are based strictly on seismic data so that information is provided to those at greatest risk as fast as possible while supplementary messages are refined with sea level observations and forecasts when possible. The Tsunami Warning Centers (TWCs) acquire regional seismic data through many agencies, such as the United States Geological Survey, Earthquakes Canada, regional seismic networks, and the PRSN. Seismic data quantity and quality are generally sufficient throughout most of the Atlantic area-of-responsibility to issue initial information within five minutes of origin time. Sea level data are mainly provided by the NOAA/National Ocean Service. Coastal tide gage coverage is generally denser along the Atlantic coast than in the Pacific. Seven deep ocean pressure sensors (DARTs), operated by the National Weather Service (NWS) National Data Buoy Center, are located in the Atlantic Basin (5 in the Atlantic Ocean, 1 in the Caribbean, and 1 in the Gulf of Mexico). The DARTs provide TWCs with the means to verify tsunami generation in the Atlantic and provide critical data with which to calibrate forecast models. Tsunami warning response criteria in the Atlantic Basin poses a challenge due to the lack of historic events. The probability and nature of potential sources along the offshore U.S./Canada region are not well understood. Warning/watch/advisory criteria are under review to improve TWC response. Primary tsunami warning contact points consist of NWS Weather Forecast Offices, state warning points, U.S. Coast Guard, and the military. These entities each have responsibility to propagate the message through specific channels. To help communities prepare for a tsunami warning, the NWS established the TsunamiReady program. TsunamiReady sets criteria for communities which include: reliable methods to receive TWC warnings, reliable methods to disseminate messages locally, pre-event planning, hazard/safe zones defined and public education. Once the criteria are met, the community can be recognized as TsunamiReady. A hypothetical event off the east coast is examined and a timeline given for TWC analysis and product issuance.

  8. Health Warning Labels for Smokeless Tobacco: The Impact of Graphic Images on Attention, Recall, and Craving.

    PubMed

    Klein, Elizabeth G; Quisenberry, Amanda J; Shoben, Abigail B; Cooper, Sarah; Ferketich, Amy K; Berman, Micah; Peters, Ellen; Wewers, Mary Ellen

    2017-10-01

    Little research has examined the impacts of graphic health warnings on the users of smokeless tobacco products. A convenience sample of past-month, male smokeless tobacco users (n = 142; 100% male) was randomly assigned to view a smokeless tobacco advertisement with a graphic health warning (GHW) or a text-only warning. Eye-tracking equipment measured viewing time, or dwell time, in milliseconds. Following the advertisement exposure, participants self-reported smokeless tobacco craving and recalled any content in the health warning message (unaided recall). Linear and logistic regression analyses evaluated the proportion of time viewing the GHW, craving, and GHW recall. Participants who viewed a GHW spent a significantly greater proportion of their ad viewing time on GHWs (2.87 seconds or 30%), compared to those viewing a text-only warning (2.05 seconds or 24%). Although there were no significant differences by condition in total advertisement viewing duration, those participants viewing a GHW had increased recall of health warning messages compared to the text-only warning (76% had any warning message recall compared to 53%; p < .05). Self-reported craving after advertisement exposure was lower in the GHW compared to text-only condition, but the difference was not statistically significant (a rating of 4.4 vs. 5.3 on a 10-point scale; p = .08). GHWs attracted greater attention and greater recall of health warning messages compared to text-only warnings among rural male smokeless tobacco users. Among a sample of rural smokeless tobacco users, GHWs attracted more attention and recall of health warning messages compared to text-only warnings when viewed within smokeless tobacco advertising. These findings provide additional empirical support that GHWs are an effective tobacco control tool for all tobacco products and advertisements. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  9. Impact of the FDA warning of potential ceftriaxone and calcium interactions on drug use policy in clinical practice.

    PubMed

    Esterly, John S; Steadman, Emily; Scheetz, Marc H

    2011-06-01

    In September 2007, the FDA issued an alert recommending that ceftriaxone and calcium-containing solutions should not be administered to any patient within 48 h of each other. Due to the widespread use of ceftriaxone, significant concern was expressed by the greater healthcare community about the warning, which the FDA eventually retracted in April of 2009. We sought to quantify the impact of the warning on healthcare institutions. A survey was administered to the membership of the Society of Infectious Diseases Pharmacists to quantify perceived changes in ceftriaxone use among healthcare institutions across the United States. A survey of Infectious Diseases experts was conducted. Participants were queried for hospital policies/drug use statistics during two times: immediately after the FDA warning and approximately 13 months post warning (preceding the FDA retraction). Related changes in formulary, drug-use policy, and the number of employee hours that were devoted to addressing the FDA warning were assessed. Ninety-four surveys representing 94 hospital systems were included in the analysis. Approximately half (n = 49, 52%) of respondent institutions enacted at least one drug-use policy change based on the warning; one institution removed ceftriaxone from a clinical protocol. Institutions' final interpretations of the warning differed slightly from initial understanding of the warning, and there was an overall minor decrease in the perceived use of ceftriaxone. The majority of those surveyed (n = 70, 74%) estimated that their respective institutions devoted between 1 and 49 employee hours to address the warning. Hospitals with ID pharmacists had minimal changes to ceftriaxone use after the 2007 FDA warning. Specialized pharmacists may be uniquely situated to help hospitals interpret global recommendations locally.

  10. On the importance of risk knowledge for an end-to-end tsunami early warning system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Post, Joachim; Strunz, Günter; Riedlinger, Torsten; Mück, Matthias; Wegscheider, Stephanie; Zosseder, Kai; Steinmetz, Tilmann; Gebert, Niklas; Anwar, Herryal

    2010-05-01

    Warning systems commonly use information provided by networks of sensors able to monitor and detect impending disasters, aggregate and condense these information to provide reliable information to a decision maker whether to warn or not, disseminates the warning message and provide this information to people at risk. Ultimate aim is to enable those in danger to make decisions (e.g. initiate protective actions for buildings) and to take action to safe their lives. This involves very complex issues when considering all four elements of early warning systems (UNISDR-PPEW), namely (1) risk knowledge, (2) monitoring and warning service, (3) dissemination and communication, (4) response capability with the ultimate aim to gain as much time as possible to empower individuals and communities to act in an appropriate manner to reduce injury, loss of life, damage to property and the environment and loss of livelihoods. Commonly most warning systems feature strengths and main attention on the technical/structural dimension (monitoring & warning service, dissemination tools) with weaknesses and less attention on social/cultural dimension (e.g. human response capabilities, defined warning chain to and knowing what to do by the people). Also, the use of risk knowledge in early warning most often is treated in a theoretical manner (knowing that it is somehow important), yet less in an operational, practical sense. Risk assessments and risk maps help to motivate people, prioritise early warning system needs and guide preparations for response and disaster prevention activities. Beyond this risk knowledge can be seen as a tie between national level early warning and community level reaction schemes. This presentation focuses on results, key findings and lessons-learnt related to tsunami risk assessment in the context of early warning within the GITEWS (German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning) project. Here a novel methodology reflecting risk information needs in the early warning context has been worked out. The generated results contribute significantly in the fields of (1) warning decision and warning levels, (2) warning dissemination and warning message content, (3) early warning chain planning, (4) increasing response capabilities and protective systems, (5) emergency relief and (6) enhancing communities' awareness and preparedness towards tsunami threats. Additionally examples will be given on the potentials of an operational use of risk information in early warning systems as first experiences exist for the tsunami early warning center in Jakarta, Indonesia. Beside this the importance of linking national level early warning information with tsunami risk information available at the local level (e.g. linking warning message information on expected intensity with respective tsunami hazard zone maps at community level for effective evacuation) will be demonstrated through experiences gained in three pilot areas in Indonesia. The presentation seeks to provide new insights on benefits using risk information in early warning and will provide further evidence that practical use of risk information is an important and indispensable component of end-to-end early warning.

  11. Performance evaluation of the national early warning system for shallow landslides in Norway

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dahl, Mads-Peter; Piciullo, Luca; Devoli, Graziella; Colleuille, Hervé; Calvello, Michele

    2017-04-01

    As a consequence of the increased number of rainfall-and snowmelt-induced landslides (debris flows, debris slides, debris avalanches and slush flows) occurring in Norway, a national landslide early warning system (EWS) has been developed for monitoring and forecasting the hydro-meteorological conditions potentially necessary of triggering slope failures. The system, operational since 2013, is managed by the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) and has been designed in cooperation with the Norwegian Public Road Administration (SVV), the Norwegian National Rail Administration (JBV) and the Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET). Decision-making in the EWS is based upon hazard threshold levels, hydro-meteorological and real-time landslide observations as well as landslide inventory and susceptibility maps. Hazard threshold levels have been obtained through statistical analyses of historical landslides and modelled hydro-meteorological parameters. Daily hydro-meteorological conditions such as rainfall, snowmelt, runoff, soil saturation, groundwater level and frost depth have been derived from a distributed version of the hydrological HBV-model. Two different landslide susceptibility maps are used as supportive data in deciding daily warning levels. Daily alerts are issued throughout the country considering variable warning zones. Warnings are issued once per day for the following 3 days with an update possibility later during the day according to the information gathered by the monitoring variables. The performance of the EWS has been evaluated applying the EDuMaP method. In particular, the performance of warnings issued in Western Norway, in the period 2013-2014 has been evaluated using two different landslide datasets. The best performance is obtained for the smallest and more accurate dataset. Different performance results may be observed as a function of changing the landslide density criterion, Lden(k), (i.e., thresholds considered to differentiate among classes of landslide events) used as an input parameter within the EDuMaP method. To investigate this issue, a parametric analysis has been conducted; the results of the analysis show clear differences among computed performances when absolute or relative landslide density criteria are considered.

  12. Synthesized speech rate and pitch effects on intelligibility of warning messages for pilots

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Simpson, C. A.; Marchionda-Frost, K.

    1984-01-01

    In civilian and military operations, a future threat-warning system with a voice display could warn pilots of other traffic, obstacles in the flight path, and/or terrain during low-altitude helicopter flights. The present study was conducted to learn whether speech rate and voice pitch of phoneme-synthesized speech affects pilot accuracy and response time to typical threat-warning messages. Helicopter pilots engaged in an attention-demanding flying task and listened for voice threat warnings presented in a background of simulated helicopter cockpit noise. Performance was measured by flying-task performance, threat-warning intelligibility, and response time. Pilot ratings were elicited for the different voice pitches and speech rates. Significant effects were obtained only for response time and for pilot ratings, both as a function of speech rate. For the few cases when pilots forgot to respond to a voice message, they remembered 90 percent of the messages accurately when queried for their response 8 to 10 sec later.

  13. PRESSCA: A regional operative Early Warning System for landslides risk scenario assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ponziani, Francesco; Stelluti, Marco; Berni, Nicola; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso

    2013-04-01

    The Italian national alert system for the hydraulic and hydrogeological risk is ensured by the National Civil Protection Department, through the "Functional Centres" Network, together with scientific/technical Support Centres, named "Competence Centres". The role of the Functional Centres is to alert regional/national civil protection network, to manage the prediction and the monitoring phases, thus ensuring the flow of data for the management of the emergency. The Umbria regional alerting procedure is based on three increasing warning levels of criticality for 6 sub-areas (~1200 km²). Specifically, for each duration (from 1 to 48 hours), three criticality levels are assigned to the rainfall values corresponding to a recurrence interval of 2, 5, and 10 years. In order to improve confidence on the daily work for hydrogeological risk assessment and management, a simple and operational early warning system for the prediction of shallow landslide triggering on regional scale was implemented. The system is primarily based on rainfall thresholds, which represent the main element of evaluation for the early-warning procedures of the Italian Civil Protection system. Following previous studies highlighting that soil moisture conditions play a key role on landslide triggering, a continuous physically-based soil water balance model was implemented for the estimation of soil moisture conditions over the whole regional territory. In fact, a decreasing trend between the cumulated rainfall values over 24, 36 and 48 hours and the soil moisture conditions prior to past landslide events was observed. This trend provides an easy-to-use tool to dynamically adjust the operational rainfall thresholds with the soil moisture conditions simulated by the soil water balance model prior to rainfall events. The application of this procedure allowed decreasing the uncertainties tied to the application of the rainfall thresholds only. The system is actually operational in real-time and it was recently coupled with quantitative rainfall and temperature forecasts (given by the COSMO ME local scale models for Umbria) to extend the prediction up to 72 hours forecast. The main output is constituted by four spatially distributed early warning indicators (normal, caution, warning, alarm), in compliance with national and regional law, based on the comparison between the observed (forecasted) rainfall and the dynamic thresholds. The early warning indicators, calculated over the whole regional territory, are combined with susceptibility and vulnerability layers using a WEB-GIS platform, in order to build a near real time risk scenario. The main outcome of the system is a spatially distributed landslide hazard map with the highlight of areas where local risk situations may arise due to landslides induced by the interaction between meteorological forcing and the presence of vulnerability elements. The System is inclusive of specific sections dedicated to areas with specific risks (as debris flows prone areas), with specific thresholds. The main purpose of this study is firstly to describe the operational early warning system. Then, the integration of near real-time soil moisture data obtained through the satellite sensor ASCAT (Advanced SCATterometer) within the system is shown. This could allow enhancing the reliability of the modelled soil moisture data over the regional territory. The recent rainfall event of 11-14 November 2012 is used as case study. Reported triggered landslides are studied and used in order to check/refine the early warning system.

  14. 49 CFR Appendix A to Part 222 - Approved Supplementary Safety Measures

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... crossings located within New Partial Quiet Zones shall be closed from 10 p.m. until 7 a.m. every day. Public... apply only to New Quiet Zones or New Partial Quiet Zones. Constant warning time devices and power-out...-Rule Partial Quiet Zones are renewed, or new automatic warning device systems are installed, power-out...

  15. Environmental Analysis of Endocrine Disrupting Effects from Hydrocarbon Contaminants in the Ecosystem

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    McLachlan, John A.

    2000-06-01

    This annual report summarizes the progress of three years of a three-year grant awarded to the Center for Bioenvironmental Research (CBR) at Tulane and Xavier Universities. The objective of this project is to determine how environmental contaminants, namely hydrocarbons, can act as hormones or anti-hormones in different species present in aquatic ecosystems. The three major areas of research include (1) a biotechnology based screening system to identify potential hormone mimics and antagonists; (2) an animal screening system to identify biomarkers of endocrine effects; and (3) a literature review to identify compounds at various DOE sites that are potential endocrine disruptors.more » Species of particular focus in this study are those which can serve as sentinel species (e.g., amphibians) and, thus, provide early warning signals for more widespread impacts on an ecosystem and its wildlife and human inhabitants. The focus of the literature research was to provide an analysis of the contaminants located on or around various Department of Energy (DOE) sites that are or have the potential to function as endocrine disruptors and to correlate the need for studying endocrine disruptors to DOE's programmatic needs. Previous research within the Center for Bioenvironmental Research at Tulane and Xavier Universities has focused on understanding the effects of environmental agents on the human and wildlife health and disease. In particular this research has focused on how exogenous agents can function to mimic or disrupt normal endocrine signaling, i.e. estrogen, thyroid within various systems from whole animal studies with fish, amphibians and insects to human cancer cell lines. Significant work has focused on the estrogenic and anti-estrogenic action of both synthetic organochlorine chemicals and naturally produced phytochemicals. Recent projects have extended these research objectives to examination of these environmental agents on the symbiotic relationship between nitrogen fixing rhizobial bacteria and leguminous plants. This research will form the foundation for future experiments into the genetic manipulation of plants to potentially promote greater or more specific symbiotic relationships between plant and Rhizobium allowing this biological phenomenon to be used in a greater number of crop types. Future technology developments could include the genetic engineering of crops suitable for in situ vadose zone 2 bioremediation (via microbes) and phytoremediation (through the crop, itself) in contaminated DOE sites.« less

  16. Predation on multiple trophic levels shapes the evolution of pathogen virulence.

    PubMed

    Friman, Ville-Petri; Lindstedt, Carita; Hiltunen, Teppo; Laakso, Jouni; Mappes, Johanna

    2009-08-25

    The pathogen virulence is traditionally thought to co-evolve as a result of reciprocal selection with its host organism. In natural communities, pathogens and hosts are typically embedded within a web of interactions with other species, which could affect indirectly the pathogen virulence and host immunity through trade-offs. Here we show that selection by predation can affect both pathogen virulence and host immune defence. Exposing opportunistic bacterial pathogen Serratia marcescens to predation by protozoan Tetrahymena thermophila decreased its virulence when measured as host moth Parasemia plantaginis survival. This was probably because the bacterial anti-predatory traits were traded off with bacterial virulence factors, such as motility or resource use efficiency. However, the host survival depended also on its allocation to warning signal that is used against avian predation. When infected with most virulent ancestral bacterial strain, host larvae with a small warning signal survived better than those with an effective large signal. This suggests that larval immune defence could be traded off with effective defence against bird predators. However, the signal size had no effect on larval survival when less virulent control or evolved strains were used for infection suggesting that anti-predatory defence against avian predators, might be less constrained when the invading pathogen is rather low in virulence. Our results demonstrate that predation can be important indirect driver of the evolution of both pathogen virulence and host immunity in communities with multiple species interactions. Thus, the pathogen virulence should be viewed as a result of both past evolutionary history, and current ecological interactions.

  17. Use of cyanopigment determination as an indicator of cyanotoxins in drinking water.

    PubMed

    Schmidt, Wido; Petzoldt, Heike; Bornmann, Katrin; Imhof, Lutz; Moldaenke, Christian

    2009-01-01

    The indicator function of the fluorescence signals of the cyanopigments phycocyanin and phycoerythrin as early warning parameters against the microcystins in drinking water was investigated by lab- and pilot-scale studies. The early warning function of the fluorescence signals was examined with regard to the signals' real-time character, their sensitivity and the behaviour of the cyanopigments in different treatment stages in comparison to microcystins. Fluorescence measurements confirmed the real-time character, since they can be carried out on-site without the pre-concentration of pigments. The limit of detection of phycoerythrin is determined at 0.7 microg/L and of phycocyanin at 5.3 microg/L respectively. If the pigment/microcystin ratio is known and calculated to be higher than 1, very low microcystin concentrations can be estimated by the fluorescence signals. The compared behaviour of both pigments and selected microcystins (MC-LR and MC-RR) during water treatment shows that pigments have an early warning function against microcystins in conventional treatment stages using pre-oxidation with permanganate, powdered-activated carbon and chlorination. In contrast, cyanopigments do not have an early warning function if chlorine dioxide is used as a pre-oxidant or final disinfection agent. In order to use pigment control measurements in drinking water treatment the initial pigment/toxin ratio of the raw water must be known.

  18. 30 CFR 27.23 - Automatic warning device.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... APPROVAL OF MINING PRODUCTS METHANE-MONITORING SYSTEMS Construction and Design Requirements § 27.23... function automatically at a methane content of the mine atmosphere between 1.0 to 1.5 volume percent and at all higher concentrations of methane. (c) It is recommended that the automatic warning device be...

  19. Discovery of a glowing millipede in California and the gradual evolution of bioluminescence in Diplopoda.

    PubMed

    Marek, Paul E; Moore, Wendy

    2015-05-19

    The rediscovery of the Californian millipede Xystocheir bistipita surprisingly reveals that the species is bioluminescent. Using molecular phylogenetics, we show that X. bistipita is the evolutionary sister group of Motyxia, the only genus of New World bioluminescent millipedes. We demonstrate that bioluminescence originated in the group's most recent common ancestor and evolved by gradual, directional change through diversification. Because bioluminescence in Motyxia has been experimentally demonstrated to be aposematic, forewarning of the animal's cyanide-based toxins, these results are contrary to aposematic theory and empirical evidence that a warning pattern cannot evolve gradually in unpalatable prey. However, gradual evolution of a warning pattern is plausible if faint light emission served another function and was co-opted as an aposematic signal later in the diversification of the genus. Luminescence in Motyxia stem-group taxa may have initially evolved to cope with reactive oxygen stress triggered by a hot, dry environment and was repurposed for aposematism by high-elevation crown-group taxa colonizing new habitats with varying levels of predation. The discovery of bioluminescence in X. bistipita and its pivotal phylogenetic location provides insight into the independent and repeated evolution of bioluminescence across the tree of life.

  20. Never Use the Complete Search Space: a Concept to Enhance the Optimization Procedure for Monitoring Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bode, F.; Reuschen, S.; Nowak, W.

    2015-12-01

    Drinking-water well catchments include many potential sources of contaminations like gas stations or agriculture. Finding optimal positions of early-warning monitoring wells is challenging because there are various parameters (and their uncertainties) that influence the reliability and optimality of any suggested monitoring location or monitoring network.The overall goal of this project is to develop and establish a concept to assess, design and optimize early-warning systems within well catchments. Such optimal monitoring networks need to optimize three competing objectives: a high detection probability, which can be reached by maximizing the "field of vision" of the monitoring network, a long early-warning time such that there is enough time left to install counter measures after first detection, and the overall operating costs of the monitoring network, which should ideally be reduced to a minimum. The method is based on numerical simulation of flow and transport in heterogeneous porous media coupled with geostatistics and Monte-Carlo, scenario analyses for real data, respectively, wrapped up within the framework of formal multi-objective optimization using a genetic algorithm.In order to speed up the optimization process and to better explore the Pareto-front, we developed a concept that forces the algorithm to search only in regions of the search space where promising solutions can be expected. We are going to show how to define these regions beforehand, using knowledge of the optimization problem, but also how to define them independently of problem attributes. With that, our method can be used with and/or without detailed knowledge of the objective functions.In summary, our study helps to improve optimization results in less optimization time by meaningful restrictions of the search space. These restrictions can be done independently of the optimization problem, but also in a problem-specific manner.

  1. Web-based Tsunami Early Warning System with instant Tsunami Propagation Calculations in the GPU Cloud

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hammitzsch, M.; Spazier, J.; Reißland, S.

    2014-12-01

    Usually, tsunami early warning and mitigation systems (TWS or TEWS) are based on several software components deployed in a client-server based infrastructure. The vast majority of systems importantly include desktop-based clients with a graphical user interface (GUI) for the operators in early warning centers. However, in times of cloud computing and ubiquitous computing the use of concepts and paradigms, introduced by continuously evolving approaches in information and communications technology (ICT), have to be considered even for early warning systems (EWS). Based on the experiences and the knowledge gained in three research projects - 'German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System' (GITEWS), 'Distant Early Warning System' (DEWS), and 'Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises' (TRIDEC) - new technologies are exploited to implement a cloud-based and web-based prototype to open up new prospects for EWS. This prototype, named 'TRIDEC Cloud', merges several complementary external and in-house cloud-based services into one platform for automated background computation with graphics processing units (GPU), for web-mapping of hazard specific geospatial data, and for serving relevant functionality to handle, share, and communicate threat specific information in a collaborative and distributed environment. The prototype in its current version addresses tsunami early warning and mitigation. The integration of GPU accelerated tsunami simulation computations have been an integral part of this prototype to foster early warning with on-demand tsunami predictions based on actual source parameters. However, the platform is meant for researchers around the world to make use of the cloud-based GPU computation to analyze other types of geohazards and natural hazards and react upon the computed situation picture with a web-based GUI in a web browser at remote sites. The current website is an early alpha version for demonstration purposes to give the concept a whirl and to shape science's future. Further functionality, improvements and possible profound changes have to implemented successively based on the users' evolving needs.

  2. A SDMS Model: Early Warning Coordination Centres

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santos-Reyes, Jaime

    2010-05-01

    Following the tsunami disaster in 2004, the General Secretary of the United Nations (UN) Kofi Annan called for a global early warning system for all hazards and for all communities. He also requested the ISDR (International Strategy fort Disaster Reduction) and its UN partners to conduct a global survey of capacities, gaps and opportunities in relation to early warning systems. The produced report, "Global survey of Early Warning Systems", concluded that there are many gaps and shortcomings and that much progress has been made on early warning systems and great capabilities are available around the world. However, it may be argued that an early warning system (EWS) may not be enough to prevent fatalities due to a natural hazard; i.e., it should be seen as part of a ‘wider' or total system. Furthermore, an EWS may work very well when assessed individually but it is not clear whether it will contribute to accomplish the purpose of the ‘total disaster management system'; i.e., to prevent fatalities. For instance, a regional EWS may only work if it is well co-ordinated with the local warning and emergency response systems that ensure that the warning is received, communicated and acted upon by the potentially affected communities. It may be argued that without these local measures being in place, a regional EWS will have little impact in saving lives. Researchers argued that unless people are warned in remote areas, the technology is useless; for instance McGuire [5] argues that: "I have no doubt that the technical element of the warning system will work very well,"…"But there has to be an effective and efficient communications cascade from the warning centre to the fisherman on the beach and his family and the bar owners." Similarly, McFadden [6] states that: "There's no point in spending all the money on a fancy monitoring and a fancy analysis system unless we can make sure the infrastructure for the broadcast system is there,"… "That's going to require a lot of work. If it's a tsunami, you've got to get it down to the last Joe on the beach. This is the stuff that is really very hard." Given the above, the paper argues that there is a need for a systemic approach to early warning centres. Systemic means looking upon things as a system; systemic means seeing pattern and inter-relationship within a complex whole; i.e., to see events as products of the working of a system. System may be defined as a whole which is made of parts and relationships. Given this, ‘failure' may be seen as the product of a system and, within that, see death/injury/property loss etc. as results of the working of systems. This paper proposes a preliminary model of ‘early warning coordination centres' (EWCC); it should be highlighted that an EWCC is a subsystem of the Systemic Disaster Management System (SDMS) model.

  3. Stress reduction in the workplace.

    PubMed

    DiPaola, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    The modern radiology department operates within an environment of competition, increased regulation, and decreasing budgets. Functioning in this setting may lead the radiology manager to experience job related stress. Stress in the workplace has been linked to cardiovascular and musculoskeletal disorders. While there are a number of triggers for job related stress, it is important to identify the early warning signs and knee-jerk reactions. Emotional intelligence (EI) is one of several techniques that can be used to reduce job related stress. The key components of EI are self-awareness, self-management, social awareness, and relationship management.

  4. Managing Risks? Early Warning Systems for Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sitati, A. M.; Zommers, Z. A.; Habilov, M.

    2014-12-01

    Early warning systems are a tool with which to minimize risks posed by climate related hazards. Although great strides have been made in developing early warning systems most deal with one hazard, only provide short-term warnings and do not reach the most vulnerable. This presentation will review research results of the United Nations Environment Programme's CLIM-WARN project. The project seeks to identify how governments can better communicate risks by designing multi-hazard early warning systems that deliver actionable warnings across timescales. Household surveys and focus group discussions were conducted in 36 communities in Kenya, Ghana and Burkina Faso in order to identify relevant climate related hazards, current response strategies and early warning needs. Preliminary results show significant variability in both risks and needs within and between countries. For instance, floods are more frequent in rural western parts of Kenya. Droughts are frequent in the north while populations in urban areas face a range of hazards - floods, droughts, disease outbreaks - that sometimes occur simultaneously. The majority of the rural population, especially women, the disabled and the elderly, do not have access to modern media such as radio, television, or internet. While 55% of rural populace never watches television, 64% of urban respondents watch television on a daily basis. Communities have different concepts of how to design warning systems. It will be a challenge for national governments to create systems that accommodate such diversity yet provide standard quality of service to all. There is a need for flexible and forward-looking early warning systems that deliver broader information about risks. Information disseminated through the system could not only include details of hazards, but also long-term adaptation options, general education, and health information, thus increasingly both capabilities and response options.

  5. Influence of warning information changes on emergency response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heisterkamp, Tobias; Ulbrich, Uwe; Glade, Thomas; Tetzlaff, Gerd

    2014-05-01

    Mitigation and risk reduction of natural hazards is significantly related to the possibility of predicting the actual event. Some hazards can already be forecasted several days in advance. For these hazards, early warning systems have been developed, installed and improved over the years. The formation of winter storms for example can be recognized up to one week before they pass through Central Europe. This relative long early warning time has the advantage that forecasters can concretise the warnings over time. Therefore, warnings can even be adapted to alternating conditions within the process, the observation or changes in its modelling. Emergency managers are one group of warning recipients in the civil protection sector. They have to prepare or initiate prevention or response measures at a specific point of time, depending on the required lead time of the referring actions. At this point of time already, the forecast and its equivalent warning, has to be assumed as a stage of reality, hence the decision-makers have to come to a conclusion. These decisions are based on spatial and temporal knowledge of the forecasted event and the consequential situation of risk. With incoming warning updates, the detailed status of information is permanently being alternated. Consequently, decisions can be influenced by the development of the warning situation and the inherent tendency before a certain point of time. They can also be adapted to updates later on, according to the changing 'decision reality'. The influence of these dynamic hazard situations on operational planning and response by emergency managers is investigated in case studies on winter storms for Berlin, Germany. Therefore, the issued warnings by the weather service and data of operation of Berlin Fire Brigades are analysed and compared. This presentation shows and discusses first results.

  6. Plain packaging increases visual attention to health warnings on cigarette packs in non-smokers and weekly smokers but not daily smokers.

    PubMed

    Munafò, Marcus R; Roberts, Nicole; Bauld, Linda; Leonards, Ute

    2011-08-01

    To assess the impact of plain packaging on visual attention towards health warning information on cigarette packs. Mixed-model experimental design, comprising smoking status as a between-subjects factor, and package type (branded versus plain) as a within-subjects factor. University laboratory. Convenience sample of young adults, comprising non-smokers (n = 15), weekly smokers (n = 14) and daily smokers (n = 14). Number of saccades (eye movements) towards health warnings on cigarette packs, to directly index visual attention. Analysis of variance indicated more eye movements (i.e. greater visual attention) towards health warnings compared to brand information on plain packs versus branded packs. This effect was observed among non-smokers and weekly smokers, but not daily smokers. Among non-smokers and non-daily cigarette smokers, plain packaging appears to increase visual attention towards health warning information and away from brand information. © 2011 The Authors, Addiction © 2011 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  7. Does Size Impact Attention and Recall of Graphic Health Warnings?

    PubMed

    Klein, Elizabeth G; Shoben, Abigail B; Krygowski, Sarah; Ferketich, Amy; Berman, Micah; Peters, Ellen; Rao, Unnava; Wewers, Mary Ellen

    2015-07-01

    To evaluate the attention paid to larger sizes of graphic health warnings (GHWs) embedded within cigarette advertisements so as to assess their impacts on rural smokers. Daily smokers (N = 298) were randomly assigned to view a cigarette advertisement with 3 conditions: 2 intervention conditions with GHW comprising 20% or 33% of the ad area, or a text-only control. Eye-tracking software measured attention in milliseconds. Binary outcome mediation was conducted. Intervention participants spent 24% of their time viewing the GHWs, compared to 10% for control (p < .01). The odds of GHW recall in the combined (20% and 33%) intervention group were 3.3 times higher than controls. Total dwell time mediated 33% of the effect of the graphic condition on any recall. GHWs in 20% of cigarette advertisement space attracted significantly more attention than text-only warnings; larger GHWs did not increase attention. Attention was significantly associated with warning recall; total time viewing mediated warning recall. Tobacco ads should include GHWs to attract the attention of smokers.

  8. 75 FR 19885 - Restricted Areas and Danger Zone at Naval Station Mayport, FL

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-04-16

    ... will be in place 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Warning signs notifying individuals of the... authorized representative. This restriction will be in place 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Warning signs... areas identified in this section 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. Any person or vessel encroaching within...

  9. Pictorial health warnings on cigarette packs and the impact on women

    PubMed Central

    Bittencourt, Lorna; Person, Sharina D; Cruz, Regina Celina; Scarinci, Isabel C

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVE To analyze the association between the pictorial graphic health warnings on cigarette packs and their impact on intention to quit smoking among women. METHODS Population-based cross-sectional study among 265 women daily smokers in the State of Paraná in 2010. The sample size was calculated using cluster sampling. Participants were asked whether they had seen any pictorial graphic health warnings in the past 30 days, whether these warnings made them think about quitting, and intensity of these thoughts. The data was analyzed using logistic regression and the independent variables included age, educational attainment, whether they had children, whether they had attempted to quit smoking in the past 12 months, age of smoking initiation, number of cigarettes smoked per day, their town of residence, and how soon after waking do they smoke their first cigarette. RESULTS Participants (91.7%) reported seeing the pictorial graphic health warnings in the past 30 days. Women with elementary education or below and women with some/complete high school education were more likely to think about quitting smoking after seeing the pictorial graphic health warningsthan women with higher education (OR = 4.85; p = 0.0028 and OR = 2.91; p = 0.05), respectively). Women who attempted to quit smoking in the past 12 months were more likely to think about quitting than women who had not (OR = 2.49; p = 0.001). Quit attempts within the last 12 months were associated with intensity of these thoughts (OR = 2.2; p = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS Results show an association between pictorial graphic health warnings and intent to quit smoking among women with warnings having a greater impact among women with less education and who had attempted to quit smoking within the past year. Tobacco control strategies should be implemented across all groups of women regardless of their educational attainment. PMID:24626550

  10. Cigarette Warning Label Policy Alternatives and Smoking-Related Health Disparities

    PubMed Central

    Thrasher, James F.; Carpenter, Matthew J.; Andrews, Jeannette O.; Gray, Kevin M.; Alberg, Anthony J.; Navarro, Ashley; Friedman, Daniela B.; Cummings, K. Michael

    2012-01-01

    Background Pictorial health warning labels on cigarette packaging have been proposed for the U.S., but their potential influences among populations that suffer tobacco-related health disparities are unknown. Purpose To evaluate pictorial health warning labels, including moderation of their influences by health literacy and race. Methods From July 2011 to January 2012, field experiments were conducted with 981 adult smokers who were randomized to control (i.e., text-only labels, n=207) and experimental conditions (i.e., pictorial labels, n=774). The experimental condition systematically varied health warning label stimuli by health topic and image type. Linear mixed effects (LME) models estimated the influence of health warning label characteristics and participant characteristics on label ratings. Data were analyzed from January 2012 to April 2012. Results Compared to text-only warning labels, pictorial warning labels were rated as more personally relevant (5.7 vs 6.8, p<0.001) and effective (5.4 vs 6.8, p<0.001), and as more credible, but only among participants with low health literacy (7.6 vs 8.2, p<0.001). Within the experimental condition, pictorial health warning labels with graphic imagery had significantly higher ratings of credibility, personal relevance, and effectiveness than imagery of human suffering and symbolic imagery. Significant interactions indicated that labels with graphic imagery produced minimal differences in ratings across racial groups and levels of health literacy, whereas other imagery produced greater group differences. Conclusions Pictorial health warning labels with graphic images have the most-pronounced short-term impacts on adult smokers, including smokers from groups that have in the past been hard to reach. PMID:23159254

  11. Refuting the ticagrelor-aspirin black box warning: and proposing a ticagrelor early-PCI black box warning.

    PubMed

    DiNicolantonio, James J; Serebruany, Victor L; Tomek, Ales

    2013-10-03

    Ticagrelor, a novel reversible antiplatelet agent, has a black box warning to avoid maintenance doses of aspirin>100mg. However, a significant ticagrelor-early percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) interaction exists. To discuss the inappropriateness of the black box warning for aspirin doses>100mg with ticagrelor and the appropriateness (and need) for a black box warning for ticagrelor patients needing early (within 24 hours of randomization) PCI. The FDA Complete Response Review for ticagrelor indicates that aspirin doses ≥ 300 mg/daily was not a significant interaction. In the ticagrelor-aspirin ≥ 300 mg cohort, all-cause mortality (through study end) and cardiovascular (CV) mortality (through study end) were not significantly increased (HR=1.27; 95% CI, 0.84-1.93, p=0.262 and HR=1.39; 95% CI:0.87-2.2, p=0.170), respectively. However, in patients treated with early (within 24 hours) PCI, ticagrelor significantly increased all-cause mortality (30 day: HR=1.89; 95% CI: 1.26-2.81, p=0.002, and through study end, HR=1.41; 95% CI,1.08-1.84, p=0.012) and increased CV mortality (30 day: HR=1.31; 95% CI: 0.97-1.77, p=0.075, and through study end, HR=1.35; 95% CI, 0.995-1.82, p=0.054) compared to clopidogrel. Early-PCI was more prevalent in the US versus outside-US regions (61% versus 49%). The black box warning for the use of maintenance aspirin doses over 100mg/daily with ticagrelor is inappropriate and ignores the more important, credible, and highly significant ticagrelor-early PCI adverse interaction in PLATO. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Multitrophic functional diversity predicts ecosystem functioning in experimental assemblages of estuarine consumers.

    PubMed

    Lefcheck, Jonathan S; Duffy, J Emmett

    2015-11-01

    The use of functional traits to explain how biodiversity affects ecosystem functioning has attracted intense interest, yet few studies have a priori altered functional diversity, especially in multitrophic communities. Here, we manipulated multivariate functional diversity of estuarine grazers and predators within multiple levels of species richness to test how species richness and functional diversity predicted ecosystem functioning in a multitrophic food web. Community functional diversity was a better predictor than species richness for the majority of ecosystem properties, based on generalized linear mixed-effects models. Combining inferences from eight traits into a single multivariate index increased prediction accuracy of these models relative to any individual trait. Structural equation modeling revealed that functional diversity of both grazers and predators was important in driving final biomass within trophic levels, with stronger effects observed for predators. We also show that different species drove different ecosystem responses, with evidence for both sampling effects and complementarity. Our study extends experimental investigations of functional trait diversity to a multilevel food web, and demonstrates that functional diversity can be more accurate and effective than species richness in predicting community biomass in a food web context.

  13. Molecular mechanisms of dominance evolution in Müllerian mimicry.

    PubMed

    Llaurens, V; Joron, M; Billiard, S

    2015-12-01

    Natural selection acting on dominance between adaptive alleles at polymorphic loci can be sufficiently strong for dominance to evolve. However, the molecular mechanisms underlying such evolution are generally unknown. Here, using Müllerian mimicry as a case-study for adaptive morphological variation, we present a theoretical analysis of the invasion of dominance modifiers altering gene expression through different molecular mechanisms. Toxic species involved in Müllerian mimicry exhibit warning coloration, and converge morphologically with other toxic species of the local community, due to positive frequency-dependent selection acting on these colorations. Polymorphism in warning coloration may be maintained by migration-selection balance with fine scale spatial heterogeneity. We modeled a dominance modifier locus altering the expression of the warning coloration locus, targeting one or several alleles, acting in cis or trans, and either enhancing or repressing expression. We confirmed that dominance could evolve when balanced polymorphism was maintained at the color locus. Dominance evolution could result from modifiers enhancing one allele specifically, irrespective of their linkage with the targeted locus. Nonspecific enhancers could also persist in populations, at frequencies tightly depending on their linkage with the targeted locus. Altogether, our results identify which mechanisms of expression alteration could lead to dominance evolution in polymorphic mimicry. © 2015 The Author(s). Evolution © 2015 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  14. Linking biodiversity to ecosystem function: Implications for conservation ecology

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schwartz, M.W.; Brigham, C.A.; Hoeksema, J.D.; Lyons, K.G.; Mills, M.H.; van Mantgem, P.

    2000-01-01

    We evaluate the empirical and theoretical support for the hypothesis that a large proportion of native species richness is required to maximize ecosystem stability and sustain function. This assessment is important for conservation strategies because sustenance of ecosystem functions has been used as an argument for the conservation of species. If ecosystem functions are sustained at relatively low species richness, then arguing for the conservation of ecosystem function, no matter how important in its own right, does not strongly argue for the conservation of species. Additionally, for this to be a strong conservation argument the link between species diversity and ecosystem functions of value to the human community must be clear. We review the empirical literature to quantify the support for two hypotheses: (1) species richness is positively correlated with ecosystem function, and (2) ecosystem functions do not saturate at low species richness relative to the observed or experimental diversity. Few empirical studies demonstrate improved function at high levels of species richness. Second, we analyze recent theoretical models in order to estimate the level of species richness required to maintain ecosystem function. Again we find that, within a single trophic level, most mathematical models predict saturation of ecosystem function at a low proportion of local species richness. We also analyze a theoretical model linking species number to ecosystem stability. This model predicts that species richness beyond the first few species does not typically increase ecosystem stability. One reason that high species richness may not contribute significantly to function or stability is that most communities are characterized by strong dominance such that a few species provide the vast majority of the community biomass. Rapid turnover of species may rescue the concept that diversity leads to maximum function and stability. The role of turnover in ecosystem function and stability has not been investigated. Despite the recent rush to embrace the linkage between biodiversity and ecosystem function, we find little support for the hypothesis that there is a strong dependence of ecosystem function on the full complement of diversity within sites. Given this observation, the conservation community should take a cautious view of endorsing this linkage as a model to promote conservation goals.

  15. Towards developing drought impact functions to advance drought monitoring and early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bachmair, Sophie; Stahl, Kerstin; Hannaford, Jamie; Svoboda, Mark

    2015-04-01

    In natural hazard analysis, damage functions (also referred to as vulnerability or susceptibility functions) relate hazard intensity to the negative effects of the hazard event, often expressed as damage ratio or monetary loss. While damage functions for floods and seismic hazards have gained considerable attention, there is little knowledge on how drought intensity translates into ecological and socioeconomic impacts. One reason for this is the multifaceted nature of drought affecting different domains of the hydrological cycle and different sectors of human activity (for example, recognizing meteorological - agricultural - hydrological - socioeconomic drought) leading to a wide range of drought impacts. Moreover, drought impacts are often non-structural and hard to quantify or monetarize (e.g. impaired navigability of streams, bans on domestic water use, increased mortality of aquatic species). Knowledge on the relationship between drought intensity and drought impacts, i.e. negative environmental, economic or social effects experienced under drought conditions, however, is vital to identify critical thresholds for drought impact occurrence. Such information may help to improve drought monitoring and early warning (M&EW), one goal of the international DrIVER project (Drought Impacts: Vulnerability thresholds in monitoring and Early-warning Research). The aim of this study is to test the feasibility of designing "drought impact functions" for case study areas in Europe (Germany and UK) and the United States to derive thresholds meaningful for drought impact occurrence; to account for the multidimensionality of drought impacts, we use the broader term "drought impact function" over "damage function". First steps towards developing empirical drought impact functions are (1) to identify meaningful indicators characterizing the hazard intensity (e.g. indicators expressing a precipitation or streamflow deficit), (2) to identify suitable variables representing impacts, damage, or loss due to drought, and (3) to test different statistical models to link drought intensity with drought impact information to derive meaningful thresholds. While the focus regarding drought impact variables lies on text-based impact reports from the European Drought Impact report Inventory (EDII) and the US Drought Impact Reporter (DIR), the information gain through exploiting other variables such as agricultural yield statistics and remotely sensed vegetation indices is explored. First results reveal interesting insights into the complex relationship between drought indicators and impacts and highlight differences among drought impact variables and geographies. Although a simple intensity threshold evoking specific drought impacts cannot be identified, developing drought impact functions helps to elucidate how drought conditions relate to ecological or socioeconomic impacts. Such knowledge may provide guidance for inferring meaningful triggers for drought M&EW and could have potential for a wide range of drought management applications (for example, building drought scenarios for testing the resilience of drought plans or water supply systems).

  16. Federal Emergency Management and Homeland Security Organization: Historical Developments and Legislative Options

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-06-01

    nuclear disaster warning systems,” and “preparedness and planning to reduce the consequences of major terrorist incidents.” In addition, the order...assistance functions,” in addition to dam safety, “natural and nuclear disaster warning systems,” and “the coordination of preparedness and planning to

  17. Frequency of anti-collision observing responses by solo pilots as a function of traffic density, ATC traffic warnings, and competing behavior.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1973-04-01

    Eighteen instrument-rated pilots were flown in two-hour simulated solo missions during which the frequency of traffic, ATC warnings, and ATC clearances were varied, while the visibility of the target was held constant at 100%. : In order to observe t...

  18. Reflecting on Functioning in Trigger Happy America

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wolfsdorf, Adam

    2017-01-01

    Trigger warnings are posing serious threats to the ways that English educators can teach at the university level. If Aristotle--and Hillis-Miller years later--argue that literature must arouse and bring about catharsis, then proponents of trigger warnings are anaesthetising the power of words and watering down their ability to incite emotional…

  19. Chemesthesis and the Chemical Senses as Components of a “Chemofensor Complex”

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    An important function of the chemical senses is to warn against dangerous biological and chemical agents in the environment. The discovery in recent years of “taste” receptor cells outside the oral cavity that appear to have protective functions has raised new questions about the nature and scope of the chemical senses in general and of chemesthesis in particular. The present paper briefly reviews these findings within the context of what is currently known about the body's chemically sensitive protective mechanisms, including nonsensory processes that help to expel or neutralize threatening agents once they have been encountered. It is proposed that this array of defense mechanisms constitutes a “chemofensor complex” in which chemesthesis is the most ubiquitous, functionally diverse, and interactive chemosensory component. PMID:22210122

  20. A selection of reference genes and early-warning mRNA biomarkers for environmental monitoring using Mytilus spp. as sentinel species.

    PubMed

    Lacroix, C; Coquillé, V; Guyomarch, J; Auffret, M; Moraga, D

    2014-09-15

    mRNA biomarkers are promising tools for environmental health assessment and reference genes are needed to perform relevant qPCR analyses in tissue samples of sentinel species. In the present study, potential reference genes and mRNA biomarkers were tested in the gills and digestive glands of native and caged mussels (Mytilus spp.) exposed to harbor pollution. Results highlighted the difficulty to find stable reference genes in wild, non-model species and suggested the use of normalization indices instead of single genes as they exhibit a higher stability. Several target genes were found differentially expressed between mussel groups, especially in gills where cyp32, π-gst and CuZn-sod mRNA levels could be biomarker candidates. Multivariate analyses confirmed the ability of mRNA levels to highlight site-effects and suggested the use of several combined markers instead of individual ones. These findings support the use of qPCR technology and mRNA levels as early-warning biomarkers in marine monitoring programs. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Vulnerabilities of macrophytes distribution due to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hossain, Kaizar; Yadav, Sarita; Quaik, Shlrene; Pant, Gaurav; Maruthi, A. Y.; Ismail, Norli

    2017-08-01

    The rise in the earth's surface and water temperature is part of the effect of climatic change that has been observed for the last decade. The rates of climate change are unprecedented, and biological responses to these changes have also been prominent in all levels of species, communities and ecosystems. Aquatic-terrestrial ecotones are vulnerable to climate change, and degradation of the emergent aquatic macrophyte zone would have contributed severe ecological consequences for freshwater, wetland and terrestrial ecosystems. Most researches on climate change effects on biodiversity are contemplating on the terrestrial realm, and considerable changes in terrestrial biodiversity and species' distributions have been detected in response to climate change. This is unfortunate, given the importance of aquatic systems for providing ecosystem goods and services. Thus, if researchers were able to identify early-warning indicators of anthropogenic environmental changes on aquatic species, communities and ecosystems, it would certainly help to manage and conserve these systems in a sustainable way. One of such early-warning indicators concerns the expansion of emergent macrophytes in aquatic-terrestrial ecotones. Hence, this review highlights the impact of climatic changes towards aquatic macrophytes and their possible environmental implications.

  2. Impact of Tobacco-Related Health Warning Labels across Socioeconomic, Race and Ethnic Groups: Results from a Randomized Web-Based Experiment

    PubMed Central

    Cantrell, Jennifer; Vallone, Donna M.; Thrasher, James F.; Nagler, Rebekah H.; Feirman, Shari P.; Muenz, Larry R.; He, David Y.; Viswanath, Kasisomayajula

    2013-01-01

    Background The U.S. Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act of 2009 requires updating of the existing text-only health warning labels on tobacco packaging with nine new warning statements accompanied by pictorial images. Survey and experimental research in the U.S. and other countries supports the effectiveness of pictorial health warning labels compared with text-only warnings for informing smokers about the risks of smoking and encouraging cessation. Yet very little research has examined differences in reactions to warning labels by race/ethnicity, education or income despite evidence that population subgroups may differ in their ability to process health information. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the potential impact of pictorial warning labels compared with text-only labels among U.S. adult smokers from diverse racial/ethnic and socioeconomic subgroups. Methods/Findings Participants were adult smokers recruited from two online research panels (n = 3,371) into a web-based experimental study to view either the new pictorial warnings or text-only warnings. Participants viewed the labels and reported their reactions. Adjusted regression models demonstrated significantly stronger reactions for the pictorial condition for each outcome salience (b = 0.62, p<.001); perceived impact (b = 0.44, p<.001); credibility (OR = 1.41, 95% CI = 1.22−1.62), and intention to quit (OR = 1.30, 95% CI = 1.10−1.53). No significant results were found for interactions between condition and race/ethnicity, education, or income. The only exception concerned the intention to quit outcome, where the condition-by-education interaction was nearly significant (p = 0.057). Conclusions Findings suggest that the greater impact of the pictorial warning label compared to the text-only warning is consistent across diverse racial/ethnic and socioeconomic populations. Given their great reach, pictorial health warning labels may be one of the few tobacco control policies that have the potential to reduce communication inequalities across groups. Policies that establish strong pictorial warning labels on tobacco packaging may be instrumental in reducing the toll of the tobacco epidemic, particularly within vulnerable communities. PMID:23341895

  3. A tsunami early warning system for the coastal area modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soebroto, Arief Andy; Sunaryo, Suhartanto, Ery

    2015-04-01

    The tsunami disaster is a potential disaster in the territory of Indonesia. Indonesia is an archipelago country and close to the ocean deep. The tsunami occurred in Aceh province in 2004. Early prevention efforts have been carried out. One of them is making "tsunami buoy" which has been developed by BPPT. The tool puts sensors on the ocean floor near the coast to detect earthquakes on the ocean floor. Detection results are transmitted via satellite by a transmitter placed floating on the sea surface. The tool will cost billions of dollars for each system. Another constraint was the transmitter theft "tsunami buoy" in the absence of guard. In this study of the system has a transmission system using radio frequency and focused on coastal areas where costs are cheaper, so that it can be applied at many beaches in Indonesia are potentially affected by the tsunami. The monitoring system sends the detection results to the warning system using a radio frequency with a capability within 3 Km. Test results on the sub module sensor monitoring system generates an error of 0.63% was taken 10% showed a good quality sensing. The test results of data transmission from the transceiver of monitoring system to the receiver of warning system produces 100% successful delivery and reception of data. The test results on the whole system to function 100% properly.

  4. Coastal amplification laws for the French tsunami Warning Center: numerical modeling and fast estimate of tsunami wave heights along the French Riviera

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gailler, A.; Schindelé, F.; Hebert, H.; Reymond, D.

    2017-12-01

    Tsunami modeling tools in the French tsunami Warning Center operational context provide for now warning levels with a no dimension scale, and at basin scale. A new forecast method based on coastal amplification laws has been tested to estimate the tsunami onshore height, with a focus on the French Riviera test-site (Nice area). This fast prediction tool provides a coastal tsunami height distribution, calculated from the numerical simulation of the deep ocean tsunami amplitude and using a transfer function derived from the Green's law. Due to a lack of tsunami observation in the western Mediterranean basin, coastal amplification parameters are here defined regarding high resolution nested grids simulations. The first encouraging results for the Nice test site on the basis of 9 historical and fake sources show a good agreement with the time-consuming high resolution modeling: the linear approximation provides within in general 1 minute estimates less a factor of 2 in amplitude, although the resonance effects in harbors and bays are not reproduced. In Nice harbor especially, variation in tsunami amplitude is something that cannot be really appreciated because of the magnitude range and maximum energy azimuth of possible events to account for. However, this method suits well for a fast first estimate of the coastal tsunami threat forecast.

  5. Food-web complexity across hydrothermal vents on the Azores triple junction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Portail, Marie; Brandily, Christophe; Cathalot, Cécile; Colaço, Ana; Gélinas, Yves; Husson, Bérengère; Sarradin, Pierre-Marie; Sarrazin, Jozée

    2018-01-01

    The assessment and comparison of food webs across various hydrothermal vent sites can enhance our understanding of ecological processes involved in the structure and function of biodiversity. The Menez Gwen, Lucky Strike and Rainbow vent fields are located on the Azores triple junction of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. These fields have distinct depths (from 850 to 2320 m) and geological contexts (basaltic and ultramafic), but share similar faunal assemblages defined by the presence of foundation species that include Bathymodiolus azoricus, alvinocarid shrimp and gastropods. We compared the food webs of 13 faunal assemblages at these three sites using carbon and nitrogen stable isotope analyses (SIA). Results showed that photosynthesis-derived organic matter is a negligible basal source for vent food webs, at all depths. The contribution of methanotrophy versus autotrophy based on Calvin-Benson-Bassham (CBB) or reductive tricarboxylic acid (rTCA) cycles varied between and within vent fields according to the concentrations of reduced compounds (e.g. CH4, H2S). Species that were common to vent fields showed high trophic flexibility, suggesting weak trophic links to the metabolism of chemosynthetic primary producers. At the community level, a comparison of SIA-derived metrics between mussel assemblages from two vent fields (Menez Gwen & Lucky Strike) showed that the functional structure of food webs was highly similar in terms of basal niche diversification, functional specialization and redundancy. Coupling SIA to functional trait approaches included more variability within the analyses, but the functional structures were still highly comparable. These results suggest that despite variable environmental conditions (physico-chemical factors and basal sources) and faunal community structure, functional complexity remained relatively constant among mussel assemblages. This functional similarity may be favoured by the propensity of species to adapt to fluid variations and practise trophic flexibility. Furthermore, the different pools of species at vent fields may play similar functions in the community such as the change in composition does not affect the overall functional structure. Finally, the absence of a relationship between the functional structure and taxonomic diversity as well as the high overlap between species' isotopic niches within communities indicates that co-occuring species may have redundant functions. Therefore, the addition of species within in a functional group does not necessarily lead to more complexity. Overall, this study highlights the complexity of food webs within chemosynthetic communities and emphasizes the need to better characterize species' ecological niches and biotic interactions.

  6. Species Pool Functional Diversity Plays a Hidden Role in Generating β-Diversity.

    PubMed

    Patrick, Christopher J; Brown, Bryan L

    2018-05-01

    Functional trait diversity is used as a way to infer mechanistic processes that drive community assembly. While functional diversity within communities is often viewed as a response variable, here we present and test a framework for how functional diversity among taxa in the regional species pool drives the assembly of communities among habitats. We predicted that species pool functional diversity should work with environmental heterogeneity to drive β-diversity. We tested these predictions by modeling empirical patterns in invertebrate communities from 570 streams in 52 watersheds. Our analysis of the field data provided strong support for the inclusion of both functional diversity and environmental heterogeneity in the models, and our predictions were supported when the community was analyzed all together. However, analyses within individual functional feeding guilds revealed strong context dependency in the relative importance of functional diversity, γ-richness, and environmental heterogeneity to β-diversity. We interpret the results to mean that functional diversity can play an important role in driving β-diversity; however, within guilds the nature of interspecific interactions and species pool size complicate the relationship. Future research should test this conceptual model across different ecosystems and in experimental settings using metacommunity mesocosms to enhance our understanding of the role that functional variation plays in generating spatial biodiversity patterns.

  7. Visual attention to health warnings on plain tobacco packaging in adolescent smokers and non-smokers.

    PubMed

    Maynard, Olivia M; Munafò, Marcus R; Leonards, Ute

    2013-02-01

    Previous research with adults indicates that plain packaging increases visual attention to health warnings in adult non-smokers and weekly smokers, but not daily smokers. The present research extends this study to adolescents aged 14-19 years. Mixed-model experimental design, with smoking status as a between-subjects factor and pack type (branded or plain pack) and eye gaze location (health warning or branding) as within-subjects factors. Three secondary schools in Bristol, UK. A convenience sample of adolescents comprising never-smokers (n = 26), experimenters (n = 34), weekly smokers (n = 13) and daily smokers (n = 14). Number of eye movements to health warnings and branding on plain and branded packs. Analysis of variance, irrespective of smoking status revealed more eye movements to health warnings than branding on plain packs, but an equal number of eye movements to both regions on branded packs (P = 0.033). This was observed among experimenters (P < 0.001) and weekly smokers (P = 0.047), but not among never-smokers or daily smokers. Among experimenters and weekly smokers, plain packaging increases visual attention to health warnings and away from branding. Daily smokers, even relatively early in their smoking careers, seem to avoid the health warnings on cigarette packs. Adolescent never-smokers attend the health warnings preferentially on both types of packs, a finding which may reflect their decision not to smoke. © 2012 The Authors, Addiction © 2012 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  8. Plant Trait Variation along an Altitudinal Gradient in Mediterranean High Mountain Grasslands: Controlling the Species Turnover Effect

    PubMed Central

    Pescador, David S.; de Bello, Francesco; Valladares, Fernando; Escudero, Adrián

    2015-01-01

    Assessing changes in plant functional traits along gradients is useful for understanding the assembly of communities and their response to global and local environmental drivers. However, these changes may reflect the effects of species composition (i.e. composition turnover), species abundance (i.e. species interaction), and intra-specific trait variability (i.e. species plasticity). In order to determine the relevance of the latter, trait variation can be assessed under minimal effects of composition turnover. Nine sampling sites were established along an altitudinal gradient in a Mediterranean high mountain grassland community with low composition turnover (Madrid, Spain; 1940 m–2419 m). Nine functional traits were also measured for ten individuals of around ten plant species at each site, for a total of eleven species across all sites. The relative importance of different sources of variability (within/between site and intra-/inter-specific functional diversity) and trait variation at species and community level along the considered gradients were explored. We found a weak individual species response to altitude and other environmental variables although in some cases, individuals were smaller and leaves were thicker at higher elevations. This lack of species response was most likely due to greater within- than between-site species variation. At the community level, inter-specific functional diversity was generally greater than the intra-specific component except for traits linked to leaf element content (leaf carbon content, leaf nitrogen content, δ13C and δ15N). Inter-specific functional diversity decreased with lower altitude for four leaf traits (specific leaf area, leaf dry matter content, δ13C and δ15N), suggesting trait convergence between species at lower elevations, where water shortage may have a stronger environmental filtering effect than colder temperatures at higher altitudes. Our results suggest that, within a vegetation type encompassing various environmental gradients, both, changes in species abundance and intra-specific trait variability adjust for the community functional response to environmental changes. PMID:25774532

  9. Plant trait variation along an altitudinal gradient in mediterranean high mountain grasslands: controlling the species turnover effect.

    PubMed

    Pescador, David S; de Bello, Francesco; Valladares, Fernando; Escudero, Adrián

    2015-01-01

    Assessing changes in plant functional traits along gradients is useful for understanding the assembly of communities and their response to global and local environmental drivers. However, these changes may reflect the effects of species composition (i.e. composition turnover), species abundance (i.e. species interaction), and intra-specific trait variability (i.e. species plasticity). In order to determine the relevance of the latter, trait variation can be assessed under minimal effects of composition turnover. Nine sampling sites were established along an altitudinal gradient in a Mediterranean high mountain grassland community with low composition turnover (Madrid, Spain; 1940 m-2419 m). Nine functional traits were also measured for ten individuals of around ten plant species at each site, for a total of eleven species across all sites. The relative importance of different sources of variability (within/between site and intra-/inter-specific functional diversity) and trait variation at species and community level along the considered gradients were explored. We found a weak individual species response to altitude and other environmental variables although in some cases, individuals were smaller and leaves were thicker at higher elevations. This lack of species response was most likely due to greater within- than between-site species variation. At the community level, inter-specific functional diversity was generally greater than the intra-specific component except for traits linked to leaf element content (leaf carbon content, leaf nitrogen content, δ13C and δ15N). Inter-specific functional diversity decreased with lower altitude for four leaf traits (specific leaf area, leaf dry matter content, δ13C and δ15N), suggesting trait convergence between species at lower elevations, where water shortage may have a stronger environmental filtering effect than colder temperatures at higher altitudes. Our results suggest that, within a vegetation type encompassing various environmental gradients, both, changes in species abundance and intra-specific trait variability adjust for the community functional response to environmental changes.

  10. Contribution of an exposure indicator to better anticipate damages with the AIGA flood warning method: a case study in the South of France

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saint-Martin, Clotilde; Fouchier, Catherine; Douvinet, Johnny; Javelle, Pierre; Vinet, Freddy

    2016-04-01

    On the 3rd October 2015, heavy localized precipitations have occurred in South Eastern France leading to major flash floods on the Mediterranean coast. The severity of those floods has caused 20 fatalities and important damage in almost 50 municipalities in the French administrative area of Alpes-Maritimes. The local recording rain gauges have shown how fast the event has happened: 156 mm of rain were recorded in Mandelieu-la-Napoule and 145 mm in Cannes within 2 hours. As the affected rivers are not monitored, no anticipation was possible from the authorities in charge of risk management. In this case, forecasting floods is indeed complex because of the small size of the watersheds which implies a reduced catchment response time. In order to cope with the need of issuing flood warnings on un-monitored small catchments, Irstea and Météo-France have developed an alternative warning system for ungauged basins called the AIGA method. AIGA is a flood warning system based on a simple distributed hydrological model run at a 1 km² resolution using real time radar rainfall information (Javelle, Demargne, Defrance, Pansu, & Arnaud, 2014). The flood warnings, produced every 15 minutes, result of the comparison of the real time runoff data produced by the model with statistical runoff values. AIGA is running in real time in the South of France, within the RHYTMME project (https://rhytmme.irstea.fr/). Work is on-going in order to offer a similar service for the whole French territory. More than 200 impacts of the 3rd October floods have been located using media, social networks and fieldwork. The first comparisons between these impacts and the AIGA warning levels computed for this event show several discrepancies. However, these latter discrepancies appear to be explained by the land-use. An indicator of the exposure of territories to flooding has thus been created to weight the levels of the AIGA hydrological warnings with the land-use of the area surrounding the streams for which the warnings are issued. This paper aims to explain how this indicator has been created and to assess its relevance with the example of the 3rd October 2015 flood. By completing this approach, the AIGA warnings may characterize not only the flood hazard but more inclusively the risk of flooding, allowing to forecast this type of event. Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D., Pansu, J., & Arnaud, P. (2014). Evaluating flash-flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system. Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques, 59(7), 1390-1402. doi: 10.1080/02626667.2014.923970

  11. Health Warnings, Smoking Rules, and Smoking Status: A Cross-National Comparison of Turkey and the United States.

    PubMed

    Wintemberg, Jenna; Yu, Mansoo; Caman, Ozge Karadag

    2018-05-12

    This study aimed to compare the prevalence of smoking status (i.e., current, former and never) between the United States and Turkey in terms of age and gender, and examine how smoking rules and health warnings are associated with smoking status within and between the two countries. The study used data from the 2012-2013 National Adult Tobacco Survey (U.S. sample, N = 60,196) and the 2012 Global Adult Tobacco Survey (Turkey sample, N = 9,581). SAS PROC SURVEYLOGISTIC with a weighted variable was used to examine the associations between demographics (age, gender and education), smoking rules, health warnings, and smoking status within and between the two countries. There was an 18% current smoking prevalence among U.S. sample, compared to 27% of the Turkey sample. The U.S. sample had a higher rate of former smoking compared to the Turkey sample (25% vs. 22%). In both countries, being older and male gender predicted former smoking while being younger and female gender predicted never smoking. Having seen a health warning, and not allowing smoking in the vehicle and home positively predicted former and never smoking status. Higher education predicted both smoking statuses in the U.S. only. It is important to work with partners particularly in low- and middle-income countries (e.g., Turkey) to combat the global tobacco epidemic. In both counties, cessation endeavors should emphasize a comprehensive understanding of smoking status in terms of smoking rules in personal spaces and health warnings.

  12. Guanfacine potentiates the activation of prefrontal cortex evoked by warning signals.

    PubMed

    Clerkin, Suzanne M; Schulz, Kurt P; Halperin, Jeffrey M; Newcorn, Jeffrey H; Ivanov, Iliyan; Tang, Cheuk Y; Fan, Jin

    2009-08-15

    Warning signals evoke an alert state of readiness that prepares for a rapid response by priming a thalamo-frontal-striatal network that includes the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC). Animal models indicate that noradrenergic input is essential for this stimulus-driven activation of DLPFC, but the precise mechanisms involved have not been determined. We tested the role that postsynaptic alpha(2A) adrenoceptors play in the activation of DLPFC evoked by warning cues using a placebo-controlled challenge with the alpha(2A) agonist guanfacine. Sixteen healthy young adults were scanned twice with event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), while performing a simple cued reaction time (RT) task following administration of a single dose of oral guanfacine (1 mg) and placebo in counterbalanced order. The RT task temporally segregates the neural effects of warning cues and motor responses and minimizes mnemonic demands. Warning cues produced a marked reduction in RT accompanied by significant activation in a distributed thalamo-frontal-striatal network, including bilateral DLPFC. Guanfacine selectively increased the cue-evoked activation of the left DLPFC and right anterior cerebellum, although this increase was not accompanied by further reductions in RT. The effects of guanfacine on DLPFC activation were specifically associated with the warning cue and were not seen for visual- or target-related activation. Guanfacine produced marked increases in the cue-evoked activation of DLPFC that correspond to the well-described actions of postsynaptic alpha(2) adrenoceptor stimulation. The current procedures provide an opportunity to test postsynaptic alpha(2A) adrenoceptor function in the prefrontal cortex in the pathophysiology of several psychiatric disorders.

  13. Young Adult Smokers' Neural Response to Graphic Cigarette Warning Labels.

    PubMed

    Green, Adam E; Mays, Darren; Falk, Emily B; Vallone, Donna; Gallagher, Natalie; Richardson, Amanda; Tercyak, Kenneth P; Abrams, David B; Niaura, Raymond S

    2016-06-01

    The study examined young adult smokers' neural response to graphic warning labels (GWLs) on cigarette packs using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Nineteen young adult smokers ( M age 22.9, 52.6% male, 68.4% non-white, M 4.3 cigarettes/day) completed pre-scan, self-report measures of demographics, cigarette smoking behavior, and nicotine dependence, and an fMRI scanning session. During the scanning session participants viewed cigarette pack images (total 64 stimuli, viewed 4 seconds each) that varied based on the warning label (graphic or visually occluded control) and pack branding (branded or plain packaging) in an event-related experimental design. Participants reported motivation to quit (MTQ) in response to each image using a push-button control. Whole-brain blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) functional images were acquired during the task. GWLs produced significantly greater self-reported MTQ than control warnings ( p < .001). Imaging data indicate stronger neural activation in response to GWLs than the control warnings at a cluster-corrected threshold p <.001 in medial prefrontal cortex, amygdala, medial temporal lobe, and occipital cortex. There were no significant differences in response to warnings on branded versus plain cigarette packages. In this sample of young adult smokers, GWLs promoted neural activation in brain regions involved in cognitive and affective decision-making and memory formation and the effects of GWLs did not differ on branded or plain cigarette packaging. These findings complement other recent neuroimaging GWL studies conducted with older adult smokers and with adolescents by demonstrating similar patterns of neural activation in response to GWLs among young adult smokers.

  14. Earthquake Early Warning and Public Policy: Opportunities and Challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goltz, J. D.; Bourque, L.; Tierney, K.; Riopelle, D.; Shoaf, K.; Seligson, H.; Flores, P.

    2003-12-01

    Development of an earthquake early warning capability and pilot project were objectives of TriNet, a 5-year (1997-2001) FEMA-funded project to develop a state-of-the-art digital seismic network in southern California. In parallel with research to assemble a protocol for rapid analysis of earthquake data and transmission of a signal by TriNet scientists and engineers, the public policy, communication and educational issues inherent in implementation of an earthquake early warning system were addressed by TriNet's outreach component. These studies included: 1) a survey that identified potential users of an earthquake early warning system and how an earthquake early warning might be used in responding to an event, 2) a review of warning systems and communication issues associated with other natural hazards and how lessons learned might be applied to an alerting system for earthquakes, 3) an analysis of organization, management and public policy issues that must be addressed if a broad-based warning system is to be developed and 4) a plan to provide earthquake early warnings to a small number of organizations in southern California as an experimental prototype. These studies provided needed insights into the social and cultural environment in which this new technology will be introduced, an environment with opportunities to enhance our response capabilities but also an environment with significant barriers to overcome to achieve a system that can be sustained and supported. In this presentation we will address the main public policy issues that were subjects of analysis in these studies. They include a discussion of the possible division of functions among organizations likely to be the principle partners in the management of an earthquake early warning system. Drawing on lessons learned from warning systems for other hazards, we will review the potential impacts of false alarms and missed events on warning system credibility, the acceptability of fully automated warning systems and equity issues associated with possible differential access to warnings. Finally, we will review the status of legal authorities and liabilities faced by organizations that assume various warning system roles and possible approaches to setting up a pilot project to introduce early warning. Our presentation will suggest that introducing an early warning system requires multi-disciplinary and multi-agency cooperation and thoughtful discussion among organizations likely to be providers and participants in an early warning system. Recalling our experience with earthquake prediction, we will look at early warning as a promising but unproven technology and recommend moving forward with caution and patience.

  15. A Mixed Methods Approach to Identify Cognitive Warning Signs for Suicide Attempts.

    PubMed

    Adler, Abby; Bush, Ashley; Barg, Frances K; Weissinger, Guy; Beck, Aaron T; Brown, Gregory K

    2016-01-01

    This study used a mixed methods approach to examine pathways to suicidal behavior by identifying cognitive warning signs that occurred within 1 day of a suicide attempt. Transcripts of cognitive therapy sessions from 35 patients who attempted suicide were analyzed using a modified grounded theory approach. Cognitive themes emerging from these transcripts included: state hopelessness, focus on escape, suicide as a solution, fixation on suicide, and aloneness. Differences in demographic and baseline diagnostic and symptom data were explored in relation to each cognitive theme. We propose a potential conceptual model of cognitive warning signs for suicide attempts that requires further testing.

  16. Research on intelligent scenic security early warning platform based on high resolution image: real scene linkage and real-time LBS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Baishou; Huang, Yu; Lan, Guangquan; Li, Tingting; Lu, Ting; Yao, Mingxing; Luo, Yuandan; Li, Boxiang; Qian, Yongyou; Gao, Yujiu

    2015-12-01

    This paper design and implement security monitor system within a scenic spot for tourists, the scenic spot staff can be automatic real time for visitors to perception and monitoring, and visitors can also know about themselves location in the scenic, real-time and obtain the 3D imaging conditions of scenic area. Through early warning can realize "parent-child relation", preventing the old man and child lost and wandering. Research results to the further development of virtual reality to provide effective security early warning platform of the theoretical basis and practical reference.

  17. The use of early warning scores to recognise and respond to patient deterioration in district nursing.

    PubMed

    Tucker, Guy; Lusher, Adele

    2018-02-02

    This discussion article focuses on the literature surrounding early warning scoring systems and their use in primary care, specifically within district nursing. Patient deterioration is a global concern, associated with high mortality rates and avoidable deaths. Early recognition and response by nursing and other health care staff has been attributed to early warning scoring systems (EWSS) and tools. However, the use of equivalent tools in the community appears to be lacking. This review concludes that there is no consensus over the use of EWSS in district nursing and culture of practice is varied, rather than standardised.

  18. ATTACK WARNING: Better Management Required to Resolve NORAD Integration Deficiencies

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1989-07-01

    protocols, Cumbersome Integration different manufacturers’ computer systems can communicate with eachother . The warning and assessment subsystems...by treating TW/AA system as a single system subject to program review and oversight by the Defense Acquisition Board. Within this management...restore the unit to operation quickly enough after a power loss to meet NORAD mis- sion requirements. The Air Force intends to have the contractor

  19. PILOT RESULTS ON FORWARD COLLISION WARNING SYSTEM EFFECTIVENESS IN OLDER DRIVERS

    PubMed Central

    Lester, Benjamin D.; Sager, Lauren N.; Dawson, Jeffrey; Hacker, Sarah D.; Aksan, Nazan; Rizzo, Matthew; Kitazaki, Satoshi

    2016-01-01

    Summary Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) have largely been developed with a “one-size-fits-all” approach. This approach neglects the large inter-individual variability in perceptual and cognitive abilities that affect aging ADAS users. We investigated the effectiveness of a forward collision warning (FCW) with fixed response parameters in young and older drivers with differing levels of cognitive functioning. Drivers responded to a pedestrian stepping into the driver’s path on a simulated urban road. Behavioral metrics included response times (RT) for pedal controls and two indices of risk penetration (e.g., maximum deceleration and minimum time-to-collision (TTC)). Older drivers showed significantly slower responses at several time points compared to younger drivers. The FCW facilitated response times (RTs) for older and younger drivers. However, older drivers still showed smaller safety gains compared to younger drivers at accelerator pedal release and initial brake application when the FCW was active. No significant differences in risk metrics were observed within the condition studied. The results demonstrate older drivers likely differ from younger drivers using a FCW with a fixed parameter set. Finally, we briefly discuss how future research should examine predictive relationships between domains of cognitive functioning and ADAS responses to develop parameter sets to fit the individual. PMID:27135061

  20. Exotic species enhance response diversity to land-use change but modify functional composition.

    PubMed

    Stavert, Jamie R; Pattemore, David E; Gaskett, Anne C; Beggs, Jacqueline R; Bartomeus, Ignasi

    2017-08-16

    Two main mechanisms may buffer ecosystem functions despite biodiversity loss. First, multiple species could share similar ecological roles, thus providing functional redundancy. Second, species may respond differently to environmental change (response diversity). However, ecosystem function would be best protected when functionally redundant species also show response diversity. This linkage has not been studied directly, so we investigated whether native and exotic pollinator species with similar traits (functional redundancy) differed in abundance (response diversity) across an agricultural intensification gradient. Exotic pollinator species contributed most positive responses, which partially stabilized overall abundance of the pollinator community. However, although some functionally redundant species exhibited response diversity, this was not consistent across functional groups and aggregate abundances within each functional group were rarely stabilized. This shows functional redundancy and response diversity do not always operate in concert. Hence, despite exotic species becoming increasingly dominant in human-modified systems, they cannot replace the functional composition of native species. © 2017 The Author(s).

  1. FDA cigarette warning labels lower craving and elicit frontoinsular activation in adolescent smokers

    PubMed Central

    Do, Kathy T.

    2015-01-01

    Cigarette smoking is an economically and epidemiologically expensive public health concern. Most adult smokers become addicted during adolescence, rendering it a crucial period for prevention and intervention. Although litigation claims have delayed implementation, graphic warning labels proposed by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) may be a promising way to achieve this goal. We aimed to determine the efficacy of the labels in reducing in-scanner craving and to characterize the neurobiological responses in adolescent and adult smokers and non-smokers. While undergoing functional magnetic resonance imaging, thirty-nine 13- to 18-year-old adolescent and forty-one 25- to 30-year-old adult smokers and non-smokers rated their desire to smoke when presented with emotionally graphic warning labels and comparison non-graphic labels. Compared with adult smokers, adolescent smokers exhibited greater craving reduction in response to the warning labels. Although smokers evinced overall blunted recruitment of insula and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) relative to non-smokers, an effect that was stronger in adolescent smokers, parametrically increasing activation of these regions was associated with greater craving reduction. Functional connectivity analyses suggest that greater DLPFC regulation of limbic regions predicted cigarette craving. These data underscore a prominent role of frontoinsular circuitry in predicting the efficacy of FDA graphic warning labels in craving reduction in adult and adolescent smokers. PMID:25887154

  2. 77 FR 58170 - Proposed Renewal of Existing Information Collection; Fire Protection (Underground Coal Mines)

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-09-19

    ... the locations of automatic fire warning sensors and the intended air flow direction at these locations...) requires that a qualified person examine the automatic fire sensor and warning device systems on a weekly....1103-8(b) requires that a record of the weekly automatic fire sensor functional tests be maintained by...

  3. Aggressive Students and High School Dropout: An Event History Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Orozco, Steven R.

    2016-01-01

    Aggressive students often struggle in multiple domains of their school functioning and are at increased risk for high school dropout. Research has identified a variety of warning flags which are strong predictors of high school dropout. While it is known that aggressive students exhibit many of these warning flags, there is little research which…

  4. A Federal Plan for Natural Disaster Warning and Preparedness, Federal Committee for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (DOC), Rockville, MD.

    This plan to mitigate the impact of potential geophysical natural disasters, including those caused by hurricanes, tornadoes, floods and earthquakes, integrates and coordinates the multiagency functions in warning services and community preparedness related to many of these disasters. The plan is divided into five sections. The first two sections…

  5. Geographic Variation of Melanisation Patterns in a Hornet Species: Genetic Differences, Climatic Pressures or Aposematic Constraints?

    PubMed Central

    Perrard, Adrien; Arca, Mariangela; Rome, Quentin; Muller, Franck; Tan, Jiangli; Bista, Sanjaya; Nugroho, Hari; Baudoin, Raymond; Baylac, Michel; Silvain, Jean-François; Carpenter, James M.; Villemant, Claire

    2014-01-01

    Coloration of stinging insects is often based on contrasted patterns of light and black pigmentations as a warning signal to predators. However, in many social wasp species, geographic variation drastically modifies this signal through melanic polymorphism potentially driven by different selective pressures. To date, surprisingly little is known about the geographic variation of coloration of social wasps in relation to aposematism and melanism and to genetic and developmental constraints. The main objectives of this study are to improve the description of the colour variation within a social wasp species and to determine which factors are driving this variation. Therefore, we explored the evolutionary history of a polymorphic hornet, Vespa velutina Lepeletier, 1836, using mitochondrial and microsatellite markers, and we analysed its melanic variation using a colour space based on a description of body parts coloration. We found two main lineages within the species and confirmed the previous synonymy of V. auraria Smith, 1852, under V. velutina, differing only by the coloration. We also found that the melanic variation of most body parts was positively correlated, with some segments forming potential colour modules. Finally, we showed that the variation of coloration between populations was not related to their molecular, geographic or climatic differences. Our observations suggest that the coloration patterns of hornets and their geographic variations are determined by genes with an influence of developmental constraints. Our results also highlight that Vespa velutina populations have experienced several convergent evolutions of the coloration, more likely influenced by constraints on aposematism and Müllerian mimicry than by abiotic pressures on melanism. PMID:24740142

  6. Geographic variation of melanisation patterns in a hornet species: genetic differences, climatic pressures or aposematic constraints?

    PubMed

    Perrard, Adrien; Arca, Mariangela; Rome, Quentin; Muller, Franck; Tan, Jiangli; Bista, Sanjaya; Nugroho, Hari; Baudoin, Raymond; Baylac, Michel; Silvain, Jean-François; Carpenter, James M; Villemant, Claire

    2014-01-01

    Coloration of stinging insects is often based on contrasted patterns of light and black pigmentations as a warning signal to predators. However, in many social wasp species, geographic variation drastically modifies this signal through melanic polymorphism potentially driven by different selective pressures. To date, surprisingly little is known about the geographic variation of coloration of social wasps in relation to aposematism and melanism and to genetic and developmental constraints. The main objectives of this study are to improve the description of the colour variation within a social wasp species and to determine which factors are driving this variation. Therefore, we explored the evolutionary history of a polymorphic hornet, Vespa velutina Lepeletier, 1836, using mitochondrial and microsatellite markers, and we analysed its melanic variation using a colour space based on a description of body parts coloration. We found two main lineages within the species and confirmed the previous synonymy of V. auraria Smith, 1852, under V. velutina, differing only by the coloration. We also found that the melanic variation of most body parts was positively correlated, with some segments forming potential colour modules. Finally, we showed that the variation of coloration between populations was not related to their molecular, geographic or climatic differences. Our observations suggest that the coloration patterns of hornets and their geographic variations are determined by genes with an influence of developmental constraints. Our results also highlight that Vespa velutina populations have experienced several convergent evolutions of the coloration, more likely influenced by constraints on aposematism and Müllerian mimicry than by abiotic pressures on melanism.

  7. Emergency warning for people with disabilities.

    PubMed

    Putkovich, Kenneth

    2013-01-01

    The intent of this article is to assess the current state of Emergency Warning capabilities in the United States and make recommendations on what needs to be done to cost effectively establish a National Emergency Warning System to best serve the people of the United States, including those with disabilities. As part of this assessment, terminology will be defined, existing systems will be examined, critical needs and functions will be explained, and recommendations made for a system to deliver emergency messages to those people immediately at risk from natural and human-caused disasters in a timely and effective manner, regardless of location or situational circumstance. The assessment will include the needs and available technologies for delivering emergency warnings to people with disabilities, which are generally little understood, poorly addressed, and often ignored.

  8. Cigarette warning label policy alternatives and smoking-related health disparities.

    PubMed

    Thrasher, James F; Carpenter, Matthew J; Andrews, Jeannette O; Gray, Kevin M; Alberg, Anthony J; Navarro, Ashley; Friedman, Daniela B; Cummings, K Michael

    2012-12-01

    Pictorial health warning labels on cigarette packaging have been proposed for the U.S., but their potential influences among populations that suffer tobacco-related health disparities are unknown. To evaluate pictorial health warning labels, including moderation of their influences by health literacy and race. From July 2011 to January 2012, field experiments were conducted with 981 adult smokers who were randomized to control (i.e., text-only labels, n=207) and experimental conditions (i.e., pictorial labels, n=774). The experimental condition systematically varied health warning label stimuli by health topic and image type. Linear mixed effects (LME) models estimated the influence of health warning label characteristics and participant characteristics on label ratings. Data were analyzed from January 2012 to April 2012. Compared to text-only warning labels, pictorial warning labels were rated as more personally relevant (5.7 vs 6.8, p<0.001) and effective (5.4 vs 6.8, p<0.001), and as more credible, but only among participants with low health literacy (7.6 vs 8.2, p<0.001). Within the experimental condition, pictorial health warning labels with graphic imagery had significantly higher ratings of credibility, personal relevance, and effectiveness than imagery of human suffering and symbolic imagery. Significant interactions indicated that labels with graphic imagery produced minimal differences in ratings across racial groups and levels of health literacy, whereas other imagery produced greater group differences. Pictorial health warning labels with graphic images have the most-pronounced short-term impacts on adult smokers, including smokers from groups that have in the past been hard to reach. Copyright © 2012 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Young Adult Smokers' and Prior-Smokers' Evaluations of Novel Tobacco Warning Images.

    PubMed

    Healey, Benjamin; Hoek, Janet

    2016-01-01

    On-pack warning labels represent a very cost-effective means of communicating with smokers, who potentially see warnings each time they retrieve a cigarette. Warning labels have traditionally depicted graphic health consequences of smoking but emerging evidence suggests the distal consequences shown may prove less effective in prompting cessation among young adults. We used a novel micro-survey approach to compare novel and traditional warnings, and provide an empirical foundation for a larger study. We recruited 4649 male and 2993 female participants aged 18-34 from Google Consumer Survey's Australian panel of Android mobile phone users. A screening question resulted in a sample comprising 3183 daily, non-daily, and former smokers. Twenty images corresponding to social and health risks, tobacco industry denormalization, and secondhand smoke (SHS) were tested in paired comparisons where respondents selected the image they thought most likely to prompt cessation. Irrespective of smoking status, respondents rated messages featuring harm to children as most effective and industry denormalization messages and adult SHS warnings as least effective. Within smoker groups, daily smokers rated social concerns more highly; non-daily smokers were more responsive to SHS messages, and former smokers saw intimacy and cosmetic effects warnings as more effective than other groups. While preliminary, the findings support emerging evidence that more diverse warning images may be required to promote cessation among all smoker sub-groups. Warnings depicting harm to vulnerable others appear to hold high potential and merit further investigation. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  10. Structural properties of prokaryotic promoter regions correlate with functional features.

    PubMed

    Meysman, Pieter; Collado-Vides, Julio; Morett, Enrique; Viola, Roberto; Engelen, Kristof; Laukens, Kris

    2014-01-01

    The structural properties of the DNA molecule are known to play a critical role in transcription. In this paper, the structural profiles of promoter regions were studied within the context of their diversity and their function for eleven prokaryotic species; Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Salmonella Typhimurium, Pseudomonas auroginosa, Geobacter sulfurreducens Helicobacter pylori, Chlamydophila pneumoniae, Synechocystis sp., Synechoccocus elongates, Bacillus anthracis, and the archaea Sulfolobus solfataricus. The main anchor point for these promoter regions were transcription start sites identified through high-throughput experiments or collected within large curated databases. Prokaryotic promoter regions were found to be less stable and less flexible than the genomic mean across all studied species. However, direct comparison between species revealed differences in their structural profiles that can not solely be explained by the difference in genomic GC content. In addition, comparison with functional data revealed that there are patterns in the promoter structural profiles that can be linked to specific functional loci, such as sigma factor regulation or transcription factor binding. Interestingly, a novel structural element clearly visible near the transcription start site was found in genes associated with essential cellular functions and growth in several species. Our analyses reveals the great diversity in promoter structural profiles both between and within prokaryotic species. We observed relationships between structural diversity and functional features that are interesting prospects for further research to yet uncharacterized functional loci defined by DNA structural properties.

  11. Common functional targets of adaptive micro- and macro-evolutionary divergence in killifish.

    PubMed

    Whitehead, Andrew; Zhang, Shujun; Roach, Jennifer L; Galvez, Fernando

    2013-07-01

    Environmental salinity presents a key barrier to dispersal for most aquatic organisms, and adaptation to alternate osmotic environments likely enables species diversification. Little is known of the functional basis for derived tolerance to environmental salinity. We integrate comparative physiology and functional genomics to explore the mechanistic underpinnings of evolved variation in osmotic plasticity within and among two species of killifish; Fundulus majalis harbours the ancestral mainly salt-tolerant phenotype, whereas Fundulus heteroclitus harbours a derived physiology that retains extreme salt tolerance but with expanded osmotic plasticity towards the freshwater end of the osmotic continuum. Common-garden comparative hypo-osmotic challenge experiments show that F. heteroclitus is capable of remodelling gill epithelia more quickly and at more extreme osmotic challenge than F. majalis. We detect an unusual pattern of baseline transcriptome divergence, where neutral evolutionary processes appear to govern expression divergence within species, but patterns of divergence for these genes between species do not follow neutral expectations. During acclimation, genome expression profiling identifies mechanisms of acclimation-associated response that are conserved within the genus including regulation of paracellular permeability. In contrast, several responses vary among species including those putatively associated with cell volume regulation, and these same mechanisms are targets for adaptive physiological divergence along osmotic gradients within F. heteroclitus. As such, the genomic and physiological mechanisms that are associated with adaptive fine-tuning within species also contribute to macro-evolutionary divergence as species diversify across osmotic niches. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Geoethical considerations in early warning of flooding and landslides: Case study from Norway

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Devoli, Graziella; Kleivane Krøgli, Ingeborg; Dahl, Mads Peter; Colleuille, Hervé; Nykjær Boje, Søren; Sund, Monica

    2015-04-01

    The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) runs the national early warning systems (EWS) for flooding and shallow landslides in Norway. The two EWSs have been operational since the late 1980s and 2013 respectively, and are based on weather forecasts, various hydro-meteorological prognosis and expert evaluation. Daily warning levels and related information to the public is prepared and presented through custom build internet platforms. In natural hazards sciences, the risk of a specific threat is defined as the product of hazard and consequence. In this context an EWS is intended to work as a mitigation measure in lowering the consequence and thus the risk of the threat. One of several factors determining the quality of such an EWS, is how warnings are communicated to the public. In contrary to what is common practice in some other countries, experts working with EWS in Norway cannot be held personally responsible for consequences of warnings being issued or not. However, the communication of warnings for flooding and landslides at NVE still implies many considerations of geoethical kind. Which are the consequences today for the forecasters when erroneous warning messages are sent because based on a poorly documented analysis? What is for example the most responsible way to describe uncertainties in warnings issued? What is the optimal compromise between avoiding false alarms and not sending out a specific warning? Is it responsible to rely on a "gut feeling"? Some authorities complain in receiving warning messages too often. Is it responsible to begin notifying these, only in cases of "high hazard level" and no longer in cases of "moderate hazard level"? Is it acceptable to issue general warnings for large geographical areas without being able to pinpoint the treat on local scale? What responsibility lies within the EWS in recommending evacuation or other practical measures to local authorities? By presenting how early warnings of flooding and landslides are communicated in Norway and discussing the questions above, we intend to add to the discussion on what is the ethical responsibility for scientists performing forecasting and communication of natural hazards.

  13. Failure warning of hydrous sandstone based on electroencephalogram technique

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tao, Kai; Zheng, Wei

    2018-06-01

    Sandstone is a type of rock mass that widely exists in nature. Moisture is an important factor that leads to sandstone structural failure. The major failure assessment methods of hydrous sandstone at present cannot satisfy real-time and portability requirements, especially lacks of warning function. In this study, acoustic emission (AE) and computed tomography (CT) techniques are combined for real-time failure assessment of hydrous sandstone. Eight visual colors for warning are screened according to different failure states, and an electroencephalogram (EEG) experiment is conducted to demonstrate their diverse excitations of the human brain's concentration.

  14. Desire versus Efficacy in Smokers’ Paradoxical Reactions to Pictorial Health Warnings for Cigarettes

    PubMed Central

    Romer, Daniel; Peters, Ellen; Strasser, Andrew A.; Langleben, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    Pictorial health warnings on cigarette packs create aversive emotional reactions to smoking and induce thoughts about quitting; however, contrary to models of health behavior change, they do not appear to alter intentions to quit smoking. We propose and test a novel model of intention to quit an addictive habit such as smoking (the efficacy-desire model) that can explain this paradoxical effect. At the core of the model is the prediction that self-efficacy and desire to quit an addictive habit are inversely related. We tested the model in an online experiment that randomly exposed smokers (N = 3297) to a cigarette pack with one of three increasing levels of warning intensity. The results supported the model’s prediction that despite the effects of warnings on aversion to smoking, intention to quit smoking is an inverted U-shape function of the smoker’s self-efficacy for quitting. In addition, smokers with greater (lesser) quit efficacy relative to smoking efficacy increase (decrease) intentions to quit. The findings show that previous failures to observe effects of pictorial warning labels on quit intentions can be explained by the contradictory individual differences that warnings produce. Thus, the model explains the paradoxical finding that quit intentions do not change at the population level, even though smokers recognize the implications of warnings. The model suggests that pictorial warnings are effective for smokers with stronger quit-efficacy beliefs and provides guidance for how cigarette warnings and tobacco control strategies can be designed to help smokers quit. PMID:23383006

  15. Towards a certification process for tsunami early warning systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Löwe, Peter; Wächter, Jochen; Hammitzsch, Martin

    2013-04-01

    The natural disaster of the Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 was followed by an information catastrophe. Crucial early warning information could not be delivered to the communities under imminent threat, resulting in over 240,000 casualties in 14 countries. This tragedy sparked the development of a new generation of integrated modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). While significant advances were accomplished in the past years, recent events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key technical challenge for Tsunami Early Warning research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of status information and reliable early warning messages in a proven workflow. A second challenge stems from the main objective of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO (IOC) Tsunami Programme, the integration of national TEWS towards ocean-wide networks: Each of the increasing number of integrated Tsunami Early Warning Centres has to cope with the continuing evolution of sensors, hardware and software while having to maintain reliable inter-center information exchange services. To avoid future information catastrophes, the performance of all components, ranging from individual sensors, to Warning Centers within their particular end-to-end Warning System Environments, and up to federated Systems of Tsunami Warning Systems has to be regularly validated against defined criteria. Since 2004, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CeGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already, being the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS). This activity is continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises) funded under the European Union's seventh Framework Programme (FP7). TRIDEC focuses on real-time intelligent information management in Earth management and its long-term application: The technical development is based on mature system architecture models and industry standards. The use of standards already applies to the operation of individual TRIDEC reference installations and their interlinking into an integrated service infrastructure for supranational warning services. This is a first step towards best practices and service lifecycles for Early Warning Centre IT service management, including Service Level Agreements (SLA) and Service Certification. While on a global scale the integration of TEWS progresses towards Systems of Systems (SoS), there is still an absence of accredited and reliable certifications for national TEWS or regional Tsunami Early Warning Systems of Systems (TEWSoS). Concepts for TEWS operations have already been published under the guidance of the IOC, and can now be complemented by the recent research advances concerning SoS architecture. Combined with feedback from the real world, such as the NEAMwave 2012 Tsunami exercise in the Mediterranean, this can serve as a starting point to formulate initial requirements for TEWS and TEWSoS certification: Certification activities will cover the establishment of new TEWS and TEWSoS, and also both maintenance and enhancement of existing TEWS/TEWSoS. While the IOC is expected to take a central role in the development of the certification strategy, it remains to be defined which bodies will actually conduct the certification process. Certification requirements and results are likely to become a valuable information source for various target groups, ranging from national policy decision makers, government agency planners, national and local government preparedness officials, TWC staff members, Disaster Responders, the media and the insurance industry.

  16. Worldwide variation in within-canopy photosynthetic acclimation: differences in temporal and environmental controls among plant functional types

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Niinemets, Ülo; Keenan, Trevor

    2017-04-01

    Major light gradients, characteristically 10- to 50-fold, constitute the most prominent feature of plant canopies. These gradients drive within-canopy variation in foliage structural, chemical and physiological traits. As a key acclimation response to variation in light availability, foliage photosynthetic capacity per area (Aarea) increases with increasing light availability within the canopy, maximizing whole canopy photosynthesis. Recently, a worldwide database including 831 within-canopy gradients with standardized light estimates for 304 species belonging to major vascular plant functional types was constructed and within-canopy variation in photosynthetic acclimation was characterized (Niinemets Ü, Keenan TF, Hallik L (2015) Tansley review. A worldwide analysis of within-canopy variations in leaf structural, chemical and physiological traits across plant functional types. The New Phytologist 205: 973-993). However, the understanding of how within-canopy photosynthetic gradients vary during the growing season and in response to site and stand characteristics is still limited. Here we analyzed temporal, environmental and site (nutrient availability, stand density, ambient CO2 concentration, water availability) sources of variation in within-canopy photosynthetic acclimation in different plant functional types. Variation in key structural (leaf dry mass per unit area, MA), chemical (nitrogen content per dry mass, NM, and area, NA) and physiological (photosynthetic nitrogen use efficiency, EN) photosynthetic capacity per dry mass, Amass and area, Aarea) was examined. The analysis demonstrates major, typically 1.5-2-fold, time-, environment and site-dependent modifications in within-canopy variation in foliage photosynthetic capacity. However, the magnitude and direction of temporal and environmental variations in plasticity significantly varied among functional types. Species with longer leaf life span and low rates of canopy expansion or flush-type canopy formation had lower within canopy plasticity during the growing season and in response to environmental and site modifications than species with high rates of canopy expansion and leaf turnover. The fast canopy-expanding species that grow in highly dynamic light environments, actively modified Aarea by nitrogen reallocation among and partitioning within leaves. In contrast, species with low rate of leaf turnover generally exhibited a passive acclimation response with variation in Aarea primarily determined by light-dependent modifications in leaf structure during leaf growth. Due to limited reacclimation capacity in species with low leaf turnover, within-canopy variation in Aarea decreased with increasing leaf age in these species. Furthermore, the plasticity responded less to modifications in environmental and site characteristics than in species with faster leaf turnover. This analysis concludes that the rate of leaf turnover is the key trait determining the temporal variation and environmental responses of canopy photosynthetic acclimation.

  17. Hemosporidian parasites of free-living birds in the São Paulo Zoo, Brazil.

    PubMed

    Chagas, Carolina Romeiro Fernandes; Guimarães, Lilian de Oliveira; Monteiro, Eliana Ferreira; Valkiūnas, Gediminas; Katayama, Michele Viana; Santos, Stéfanie Vanessa; Guida, Fernanda Junqueira Vaz; Simões, Roseli França; Kirchgatter, Karin

    2016-04-01

    Numerous studies addressed the diversity of bird Plasmodium and Haemoproteus parasites. However, a few have been carried out in continental avian hotspot regions such as Brazil, a country with markedly different biomes, including Amazon, Brazilian Savanna, Atlantic Forest, Caatinga, Pantanal, and Pampas. We present the first study on hemosporidian (Haemosporida) parasites in free-living birds from an Atlantic Forest fragment where more than 80 avian species have been reported. Within this area, the São Paulo Zoo locates, and it is the fourth largest zoo in the world and the largest in Latin America. A total of 133 free-living bird samples representing 12 species were collected in the zoo, with the overall hemosporidian prevalence of 18 % by PCR-based diagnostics. Twenty-four positive PCR signals were reported from four different bird species, including migratory ones. Columba livia, an urban species, considered nowadays a pest in big cities, showed 100 % prevalence of Haemoproteus spp., mainly Haemoproteus columbae. We discuss the epidemiological importance of new parasites introduced by migratory birds in the São Paulo Zoo area and the risk it poses to the captive species, which are natives or exotics. We also warn about the influence these parasites can have on the biodiversity and the structure of host populations by altering the competitive interaction between the free-living and the captive birds.

  18. Early warning of critical transitions in biodiversity from compositional disorder.

    PubMed

    Doncaster, C Patrick; Alonso Chávez, Vasthi; Viguier, Clément; Wang, Rong; Zhang, Enlou; Dong, Xuhui; Dearing, John A; Langdon, Peter G; Dyke, James G

    2016-11-01

    Global environmental change presents a clear need for improved leading indicators of critical transitions, especially those that can be generated from compositional data and that work in empirical cases. Ecological theory of community dynamics under environmental forcing predicts an early replacement of slowly replicating and weakly competitive "canary" species by slowly replicating but strongly competitive "keystone" species. Further forcing leads to the eventual collapse of the keystone species as they are replaced by weakly competitive but fast-replicating "weedy" species in a critical transition to a significantly different state. We identify a diagnostic signal of these changes in the coefficients of a correlation between compositional disorder and biodiversity. Compositional disorder measures unpredictability in the composition of a community, while biodiversity measures the amount of species in the community. In a stochastic simulation, sequential correlations over time switch from positive to negative as keystones prevail over canaries, and back to positive with domination of weedy species. The model finds support in empirical tests on multi-decadal time series of fossil diatom and chironomid communities from lakes in China. The characteristic switch from positive to negative correlation coefficients occurs for both communities up to three decades preceding a critical transition to a sustained alternate state. This signal is robust to unequal time increments that beset the identification of early-warning signals from other metrics. © 2016 The Authors. Ecology, published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc., on behalf of the Ecological Society of America.

  19. Does Size Impact Attention and Recall of Graphic Health Warnings?

    PubMed Central

    Klein, Elizabeth G.; Shoben, Abigail B.; Krygowski, Sarah; Ferketich, Amy; Berman, Micah; Peters, Ellen; Rao, Unnava; Wewers, Mary Ellen

    2015-01-01

    Objective To evaluate the attention paid to larger sizes of graphic health warnings (GHWs) embedded within cigarette advertisements so as to assess their impacts on rural smokers. Methods Daily smokers (N = 298) were randomly assigned to view a cigarette advertisement with 3 conditions: 2 intervention conditions with GHW comprising 20% or 33% of the ad area, or a text-only control. Eye-tracking software measured attention in milliseconds. Binary outcome mediation was conducted. Results Intervention participants spent 24% of their time viewing the GHWs, compared to 10% for control (p < .01). The odds of GHW recall in the combined (20% and 33%) intervention group were 3.3 times higher than controls. Total dwell time mediated 33% of the effect of the graphic condition on any recall. Conclusions GHWs in 20% of cigarette advertisement space attracted significantly more attention than text-only warnings; larger GHWs did not increase attention. Attention was significantly associated with warning recall; total time viewing mediated warning recall. Tobacco ads should include GHWs to attract the attention of smokers. PMID:26550583

  20. The Effectiveness of Reverse Telephon Emergency Warning Systems in the October 2007 San Diego Wildfires

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Sorensen, John H; Sorensen, Barbara Vogt

    2009-01-01

    Late in October, 2007, fast-moving wildfires fueled by extreme Santa Ana winds threatened residents and their properties in San Diego County, California. The impacted area also included the City of San Diego within the County s boundaries. It turns out the San Diego firestorms would be the biggest in the County's history, surpassing the devastating 2003 firestorms in intensity, duration, and impacted populations. Both San Diego County and the City of San Diego have installed telephone reverse call-down emergency warning systems. A telephone survey of 1200 households located in areas identified by emergency officials as the evacuation zones for themore » 2007 fires was conducted in late March and early April 2008 using a random telephone dialing process to determine if people responded to the reverse telephone warning systems calls. Findings indicate that those who received a reverse emergency warning call were much more likely to evacuate than those who did not receive a call. The telephone calls were also the most likely source of first warning.« less

  1. Real-time earthquake data feasible

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bush, Susan

    Scientists agree that early warning devices and monitoring of both Hurricane Hugo and the Mt. Pinatubo volcanic eruption saved thousands of lives. What would it take to develop this sort of early warning and monitoring system for earthquake activity?Not all that much, claims a panel assigned to study the feasibility, costs, and technology needed to establish a real-time earthquake monitoring (RTEM) system. The panel, drafted by the National Academy of Science's Committee on Seismology, has presented its findings in Real-Time Earthquake Monitoring. The recently released report states that “present technology is entirely capable of recording and processing data so as to provide real-time information, enabling people to mitigate somewhat the earthquake disaster.” RTEM systems would consist of two parts—an early warning system that would give a few seconds warning before severe shaking, and immediate postquake information within minutes of the quake that would give actual measurements of the magnitude. At this time, however, this type of warning system has not been addressed at the national level for the United States and is not included in the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program, according to the report.

  2. Effects of a computerized feedback intervention on safety performance by junior doctors: results from a randomized mixed method study

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background The behaviour of doctors and their responses to warnings can inform the effective design of Clinical Decision Support Systems. We used data from a University hospital electronic prescribing and laboratory reporting system with hierarchical warnings and alerts to explore junior doctors’ behaviour. The objective of this trial was to establish whether a Junior Doctor Dashboard providing feedback on prescription warning information and laboratory alerting acceptance rates was effective in changing junior doctors’ behaviour. Methods A mixed methods approach was employed which included a parallel group randomised controlled trial, and individual and focus group interviews. Junior doctors below the specialty trainee level 3 grade were recruited and randomised to two groups. Every doctor (N = 42) in the intervention group was e-mailed a link to a personal dashboard every week for 4 months. Nineteen participated in interviews. The 44 control doctors did not receive any automated feedback. The outcome measures were the difference in responses to prescribing warnings (of two severities) and laboratory alerting (of two severities) between the months before and the months during the intervention, analysed as the difference in performance between the intervention and the control groups. Results No significant differences were observed in the rates of generating prescription warnings, or in the acceptance of laboratory alarms. However, responses to laboratory alerts differed between the pre-intervention and intervention periods. For the doctors of Foundation Year 1 grade, this improvement was significantly (p = 0.002) greater in the group with access to the dashboard (53.6% ignored pre-intervention compared to 29.2% post intervention) than in the control group (47.9% ignored pre-intervention compared to 47.0% post intervention). Qualitative interview data indicated that while junior doctors were positive about the electronic prescribing functions, they were discriminating in the way they responded to other alerts and warnings given that from their perspective these were not always immediately clinically relevant or within the scope of their responsibility. Conclusions We have only been able to provide weak evidence that a clinical dashboard providing individualized feedback data has the potential to improve safety behaviour and only in one of several domains. The construction of metrics used in clinical dashboards must take account of actual work processes. Trial registration ISRCTN: ISRCTN72253051 PMID:23734871

  3. The role of integrating natural and social science concepts for risk governance and the design of people-centred early warning systems. Case study from the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System Project (GITEWS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gebert, Niklas; Post, Joachim

    2010-05-01

    The development of early warning systems are one of the key domains of adaptation to global environmental change and contribute very much to the development of societal reaction and adaptive capacities to deal with extreme events. Especially, Indonesia is highly exposed to tsunami. In average every three years small and medium size tsunamis occur in the region causing damage and death. In the aftermath of the Indian Ocean Tsunami 2004, the German and Indonesian government agreed on a joint cooperation to develop a People Centered End-to-End Early Warning System (GITEWS). The analysis of risk and vulnerability, as an important step in risk (and early warning) governance, is a precondition for the design of effective early warning structures by delivering the knowledge base for developing institutionalized quick response mechanisms of organizations involved in the issuing of a tsunami warning, and of populations exposed to react to warnings and to manage evacuation before the first tsunami wave hits. Thus, a special challenge for developing countries is the governance of complex cross-sectoral and cross-scale institutional, social and spatial processes and requirements for the conceptualization, implementation and optimization of a people centered tsunami early warning system. In support of this, the risk and vulnerability assessment of the case study aims at identifying those factors that constitute the causal structure of the (dis)functionality between the technological warning and the social response system causing loss of life during an emergency situation: Which social groups are likely to be less able to receive and respond to an early warning alert? And, are people able to evacuate in due time? Here, only an interdisciplinary research approach is capable to analyze the socio-spatial and environmental conditions of vulnerability and risk and to produce valuable results for decision makers and civil society to manage tsunami risk in the early warning context. This requires the integration of natural / spatial and social science concepts, methods and data: E.g. a scenario based approach for tsunami inundation modeling was developed to provide decision makers with options to decide up to what level they aim to protect their people and territory, on the contrary household surveys were conducted for the spatial analysis of the evacuation preparedness of the population as a function of place specific hazard, risk, warning and evacuation perception; remote sensing was applied for the spatial analysis (land-use) of the socio-physical conditions of a city and region for evacuation; and existing social / population statistics were combined with land-use data for the precise spatial mapping of the population exposed to tsunami risks. Only by utilizing such a comprehensive assessment approach valuable information for risk governance can be generated. The results are mapped using GIS and designed according to the specific needs of different end-users, such as public authorities involved in the design of warning dissemination strategies, land-use planners (shelter planning, road network configuration) and NGOs mandated to provide education for the general public on tsunami risk and evacuation behavior. The case study of the city of Padang (one of the pilot areas of GITEWS), Indonesia clearly show, that only by intersecting social (vulnerability) and natural hazards research a comprehensive picture on tsunami risk can be provided with which risk governance in the early warning context can be conducted in a comprehensive, systemic and sustainable manner.

  4. The tsunami service bus, an integration platform for heterogeneous sensor systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haener, R.; Waechter, J.; Kriegel, U.; Fleischer, J.; Mueller, S.

    2009-04-01

    1. INTRODUCTION Early warning systems are long living and evolving: New sensor-systems and -types may be developed and deployed, sensors will be replaced or redeployed on other locations and the functionality of analyzing software will be improved. To ensure a continuous operability of those systems their architecture must be evolution-enabled. From a computer science point of view an evolution-enabled architecture must fulfill following criteria: • Encapsulation of and functionality on data in standardized services. Access to proprietary sensor data is only possible via these services. • Loose coupling of system constituents which easily can be achieved by implementing standardized interfaces. • Location transparency of services what means that services can be provided everywhere. • Separation of concerns that means breaking a system into distinct features which overlap in functionality as little as possible. A Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) as e. g. realized in the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the advantages of functional integration on the basis of services described below adopt these criteria best. 2. SENSOR INTEGRATION Integration of data from (distributed) data sources is just a standard task in computer science. From few well known solution patterns, taking into account performance and security requirements of early warning systems only functional integration should be considered. Precondition for this is that systems are realized compliant to SOA patterns. Functionality is realized in form of dedicated components communicating via a service infrastructure. These components provide their functionality in form of services via standardized and published interfaces which could be used to access data maintained in - and functionality provided by dedicated components. Functional integration replaces the tight coupling at data level by a dependency on loosely coupled services. If the interfaces of the service providing components remain unchanged, components can be maintained and evolved independently on each other and service functionality as a whole can be reused. In GITEWS the functional integration pattern was adopted by applying the principles of an Enterprise Service Bus (ESB) as a backbone. Four services provided by the so called Tsunami Service Bus (TSB) which are essential for early warning systems are realized compliant to services specified within the Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) initiative of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC). 3. ARCHITECTURE The integration platform was developed to access proprietary, heterogeneous sensor data and to provide them in a uniform manner for further use. Its core, the TSB provides both a messaging-backbone and -interfaces on the basis of a Java Messaging Service (JMS). The logical architecture of GITEWS consists of four independent layers: • A resource layer where physical or virtual sensors as well as data or model storages provide relevant measurement-, event- and analysis-data: Utilizable for the TSB are any kind of data. In addition to sensors databases, model data and processing applications are adopted. SWE specifies encoding both to access and to describe these data in a comprehensive way: 1. Sensor Model Language (SensorML): Standardized description of sensors and sensor data 2. Observations and Measurements (O&M): Model and encoding of sensor measurements • A service layer to collect and conduct data from heterogeneous and proprietary resources and provide them via standardized interfaces: The TSB enables interaction with sensors via the following services: 1. Sensor Observation Service (SOS): Standardized access to sensor data 2. Sensor Planning Service (SPS): Controlling of sensors and sensor networks 3. Sensor Alert Service (SAS): Active sending of data if defined events occur 4. Web Notification Service (WNS): Conduction of asynchronous dialogues between services • An orchestration layer where atomic services are composed and arranged to high level processes like a decision support process: One of the outstanding features of service-oriented architectures is the possibility to compose new services from existing ones, which can be done programmatically or via declaration (workflow or process design). This allows e. g. the definition of new warning processes which could be adapted easily to new requirements. • An access layer which may contain graphical user interfaces for decision support, monitoring- or visualization-systems: To for example visualize time series graphical user interfaces request sensor data simply via the SOS. 4.BENEFIT The integration platform is realized on top of well known and widely used open source software implementing industrial standards. New sensors could be added easily to the infrastructure. Client components don't need to be adjusted if new sensor-types or -individuals are added to the system, because they access the sensors via standardized services. With implementing SWE fully compatible to the OGC specification it is possible to establish the "detection" and integration of sensors via the Web. Thus realizing a system of systems that combines early warning system functionality at different levels of detail (distant early warning systems, monitoring systems and any sensor system) is feasible.

  5. Epidemiological surveillance of capybaras and ticks on warning area for Brazilian spotted fever

    PubMed Central

    Brites-Neto, José; Brasil, Jardel; Roncato Duarte, Keila Maria

    2015-01-01

    Aim: The vulnerability of tropical developing countries to the emerging disease constitutes a critical phenomenon in which the invasion of wild niches by human hosts, contributes to expansion of zoonotic diseases, such as the Brazilian spotted fever (BSF). This study performed a diagnosis of species occurrence of their hosts (Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris) and vectors (Amblyomma sculptum and Amblyomma dubitatum) on the warning area for this reemerging disease in Brazil. Materials and Methods: The study was conducted in a warning area for BSF in the city of Americana, São Paulo state. The occurrence of capybaras was registered by use of binoculars and GPS equipment and 24 acarological researches were performed through 180 CO2 traps. Samples of adult ticks were dissected for salivary glands removal, DNA extraction, and evaluation by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) being tested by initial gltA-PCR, ompA-PCR, and Rickettsia bellii-specific PCR, with the positive samples subjected to sequencing. Results: Eleven clusters of capybaras (total of 71 individuals), were observed along the riparian of Ribeirão Quilombo and 7,114 specimens of A. sculptum and 7,198 specimens of A. dubitatum were collected in this same area. About 568 samples of adult ticks were dissected for salivary glands removal, DNA extraction and evaluation by gltA-PCR, with results of 1.94% (11/568) of positive samples. Results for the initial gltA-PCR indicated none positive sample to Rickettsia species into A. sculptum and 11 positive samples to A. dubitatum. These samples were negative to the ompA-PCR and positive to the Rickettsia bellii-specific PCR protocol and subjected to DNA sequencing, whose result indicated 100% similarity to Rickettsia bellii. The distribution of tick species A. sculptum and A. dubitatum was configured regarding to the biotic potential of the riparian areas, measuring the risks for BSF in peri-urban areas of Americana. Conclusion: These results confirmed a status of epidemiological warning with a strong association of the amplifiers hosts of Rickettsia and tick vectors for the transmission of BSF to humans in this region. PMID:27047211

  6. Standardised (plain) cigarette packaging increases attention to both text-based and graphical health warnings: experimental evidence.

    PubMed

    Shankleman, M; Sykes, C; Mandeville, K L; Di Costa, S; Yarrow, K

    2015-01-01

    To investigate whether standardised cigarette packaging increases the time spent looking at health warnings, regardless of the format of those warnings. A factorial (two pack styles x three warning types) within-subject experiment, with participants randomised to different orders of conditions, completed at a university in London, UK. Mock-ups of cigarette packets were presented to participants with their branded portion in either standardised (plain) or manufacturer-designed (branded) format. Health warnings were present on all packets, representing all three types currently in use in the UK: black & white text, colour text, or colour images with accompanying text. Gaze position was recorded using a specialised eye tracker, providing the main outcome measure, which was the mean proportion of a five-second viewing period spent gazing at the warning-label region of the packet. An opportunity sample of 30 (six male, mean age = 23) young adults met the following inclusion criteria: 1) not currently a smoker; 2) <100 lifetime cigarettes smoked; 3) gaze position successfully tracked for > 50% viewing time. These participants spent a greater proportion of the available time gazing at the warning-label region when the branded section of the pack was standardised (following current Australian guidelines) rather than containing the manufacturer's preferred design (mean difference in proportions = 0.078, 95% confidence interval 0.049 to 0.106, p < 0.001). There was no evidence that this effect varied based on the type of warning label (black & white text vs. colour text vs. colour image & text; interaction p = 0.295). During incidental viewing of cigarette packets, young adult never-smokers are likely to spend more time looking at health warnings if manufacturers are compelled to use standardised packaging, regardless of the warning design. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  7. Potential for Expanding the Near Real Time ForWarn Regional Forest Monitoring System to Include Alaska

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spruce, Joseph P.; Gasser, Gerald; Hargrove, William; Smoot, James; Kuper, Philip D.

    2014-01-01

    The on-line near real time (NRT) ForWarn system is currently deployed to monitor regional forest disturbances within the conterminous United States (CONUS), using daily MODIS Aqua and Terra NDVI data to derive monitoring products. The Healthy Forest Restoration Act of 2003 mandated such a system. Work on ForWarn began in 2006 with development and validation of retrospective MODIS NDVI-based forest monitoring products. Subsequently, NRT forest disturbance monitoring products were demonstrated, leading to the actual system deployment in 2010. ForWarn provides new CONUS forest disturbance monitoring products every 8 days, using USGS eMODIS data for current NDVI. ForWarn currently does not cover Alaska, which includes extensive forest lands at risk to multiple biotic and abiotic threats. This poster discusses a case study using Alaska eMODIS Terra data to derive ForWarn like forest change products during the 2010 growing season. The eMODIS system provides current MODIS Terra NDVI products for Alaska. Resulting forest change products were assessed with ground, aerial, and Landsat reference data. When cloud and snow free, these preliminary products appeared to capture regional forest disturbances from insect defoliation and fires; however, more work is needed to mitigate cloud and snow contamination, including integration of eMODIS Aqua data.

  8. Adolescent girls and young adult women's perceptions of superslims cigarette packaging: a qualitative study

    PubMed Central

    Ford, Allison; Moodie, Crawford; Purves, Richard; MacKintosh, Anne Marie

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To explore perceptions of superslims packaging, including compact ‘lipstick’ packs, in line with 3 potential impacts identified within the impact assessment of the European Union (EU) Tobacco Products Directive: appeal, harm perceptions and the seriousness of warning of health risks. Design Qualitative focus group study. Setting Informal community venues in Scotland, UK. Participants 75 female non-smokers and occasional smokers (age range 12–24). Results Compact ‘lipstick’-type superslims packs were perceived most positively and rated as most appealing. They were also viewed as less harmful than more standard sized cigarette packs because of their smaller size and likeness to cosmetics. Additionally, ‘lipstick’ packs were rated as less serious in terms of warning about the health risks associated with smoking, either because the small font size of the warnings was difficult to read or because the small pack size prevented the text on the warnings from being displayed properly. Bright pack colours and floral designs were also thought to detract from the health warning. Conclusions As superslims packs were found to increase appeal, mislead with respect to level of harm, and undermine the on-pack health warnings, this provides support for the decision to ban ‘lipstick’-style cigarette packs in the EU and has implications for policy elsewhere. PMID:26747040

  9. Design Principles for resilient cyber-physical Early Warning Systems - Challenges, Experiences, Design Patterns, and Best Practices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gensch, S.; Wächter, J.; Schnor, B.

    2014-12-01

    Early warning systems (EWS) are safety-critical IT-infrastructures that serve the purpose of potentially saving lives or assets by observing real-world phenomena and issuing timely warning products to authorities and communities. An EWS consists of sensors, communication networks, data centers, simulation platforms, and dissemination channels. The components of this cyber-physical system may all be affected by both natural hazards and malfunctions of components alike. Resilience engineering so far has mostly been applied to safety-critical systems and processes in transportation (aviation, automobile), construction and medicine. Early warning systems need equivalent techniques to compensate for failures, and furthermore means to adapt to changing threats, emerging technology and research findings. We present threats and pitfalls from our experiences with the German and Indonesian tsunami early warning system, as well as architectural, technological and organizational concepts employed that can enhance an EWS' resilience. The current EWS is comprised of a multi-type sensor data upstream part, different processing and analysis engines, a decision support system, and various warning dissemination channels. Each subsystem requires a set of approaches towards ensuring stable functionality across system layer boundaries, including also institutional borders. Not only must services be available, but also produce correct results. Most sensors are distributed components with restricted resources, communication channels and power supply. An example for successful resilience engineering is the power capacity based functional management for buoy and tide gauge stations. We discuss various fault-models like cause and effect models on linear pathways, interaction of multiple events, complex and non-linear interaction of assumedly reliable subsystems and fault tolerance means implemented to tackle these threats.

  10. Civil Defense, U. S. A.: A Programmed Orientation to Civil Defense. Unit 4. Warning, Emergency Operations, and Support Programs.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Defense Civil Preparedness Agency (DOD), Battle Creek, MI.

    The need for, and a description of, emergency functions required to save lives and protect property in nuclear or natural disasters are presented. Topics discussed include: (1) The Civil Defense Warning System, (2) Introduction to the Emergency Operations Program, (3) Five subprograms of the Emergency Operations Program, (4) Emergency Operations…

  11. Light guide technology: using light to enhance safety

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lerner, William S.

    2009-05-01

    When used to detect extreme temperatures in harsh environments, warning devices have been placed at a distance from the "danger zone" for several reasons. The inability to mix electricity with flammable, caustic, liquid or volatile substances, the limited heat tolerances exhibited by most light sources, and the susceptibility of light sources to damage from vibration, have made the placement of a warning light directly within these harsh environments impossible. This paper describes a system that utilizes a beam of light to provide just such a warning. This system can be used with hard-wired or wireless sensors, side-light illumination, image projection and image transfer. The entire system may be self-contained and portable.

  12. Effects of posted point-of-sale warnings on alcohol consumption during pregnancy and on birth outcomes.

    PubMed

    Cil, Gulcan

    2017-05-01

    In 23 states and Washington D.C., alcohol retailers are required by law to post alcohol warning signs (AWS) that warn against the risks of drinking during pregnancy. Using the variation in the adoption of these laws across states and within states over time, I find a statistically significant reduction in prenatal alcohol use associated with AWS. I then use this plausibly exogenous change in drinking behavior to establish a causal link between prenatal alcohol exposure and birth outcomes. I find that AWS laws are associated with decreases in the odds of very low birth weight and very pre-term birth. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Power line detection system

    DOEpatents

    Latorre, Victor R.; Watwood, Donald B.

    1994-01-01

    A short-range, radio frequency (RF) transmitting-receiving system that provides both visual and audio warnings to the pilot of a helicopter or light aircraft of an up-coming power transmission line complex. Small, milliwatt-level narrowband transmitters, powered by the transmission line itself, are installed on top of selected transmission line support towers or within existing warning balls, and provide a continuous RF signal to approaching aircraft. The on-board receiver can be either a separate unit or a portion of the existing avionics, and can also share an existing antenna with another airborne system. Upon receipt of a warning signal, the receiver will trigger a visual and an audio alarm to alert the pilot to the potential power line hazard.

  14. The emotional impact of European tobacco-warning images.

    PubMed

    Muñoz, M A; Viedma-Del-Jesús, M I; Rosselló, F; Sánchez-Nácher, N; Montoya, P; Vila, J

    2013-03-01

    The emotional impact of the tobacco-warning images proposed by the European Commission to reduce tobacco consumption is evaluated in the context of the International Affective Picture System, a well-established procedure for investigating appetitive (approach) and defensive (avoidance) motivational tendencies evoked by images. In a cross-sectional study, 597 healthy male and female volunteers (from the University of Granada, the University of Balearic Islands and four different schools of Valencia and Balearic Islands) distributed in six age groups (13-14, 15-16, 17-18, 19-20, 21-22 and over 23 years old) and four smoking status groups (non-smokers, one-time smokers, occasional smokers and heavy smokers) rated their emotional responses to 35 European tobacco-warning images together with 42 pleasant and 42 unpleasant International Affective Picture System pictures using the valence and arousal scales of the Self-Assessment Manikin. The results of the study indicate that the majority of the tobacco-warning images (83%) were distributed within the unpleasant space and ranged from moderately unpleasant to very unpleasant. However, a small but significant number of images (17%) were also distributed within the pleasant space, ranging from moderately pleasant to very pleasant. Only four unpleasant pictures were rated as highly arousing (11.4%). Women, the older age groups (over 17 years old), and occasional smokers evaluated these images as significantly more arousing than the other groups. Findings suggest that the capability of the European tobacco-warning images to prompt negative attitudes to reduce tobacco consumption might not extend to the general population but would be limited to specific target groups.

  15. Emergency management response to a warning-level Alaska-source tsunami impacting California: Chapter J in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Miller, Kevin M.; Long, Kate

    2013-01-01

    This chapter is directed towards two audiences: Firstly, it targets nonemergency management readers, providing them with insight on the process and challenges facing emergency managers in responding to tsunami Warning, particularly given this “short fuse” scenario. It is called “short fuse” because there is only a 5.5-hour window following the earthquake before arrival of the tsunami within which to evaluate the threat, disseminate alert and warning messages, and respond. This action initiates a period when crisis communication is of paramount importance. An additional dynamic that is important to note is that within 15 minutes of the earthquake, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Weather Service (NWS) will issue alert bulletins for the entire Pacific Coast. This is one-half the time actually presented by recent tsunamis from Japan, Chile, and Samoa. Second, the chapter provides emergency managers at all levels with insights into key considerations they may need to address in order to augment their existing plans and effectively respond to tsunami events. We look at emergency management response to the tsunami threat from three perspectives:“Top Down” (Threat analysis and Alert/Warning information from the Federal agency charged with Alert and Warning) “Bottom Up” (Emergency management’s Incident Command approach to responding to emergencies and disasters based on the needs of impacted local jurisdictions) “Across Time” (From the initiating earthquake event through emergency response) We focus on these questions: What are the government roles, relationships, and products that support Tsunami Alert and Warning dissemination? (Emergency Planning and Preparedness.) What roles, relationships, and products support emergency management response to Tsunami Warning and impact? (Engendering prudent public safety response.) What are the key emergency management activities, considerations, and challenges brought out by the SAFRR tsunami scenario? (Real emergencies) How do these activities, considerations, and challenges play out as the tsunami event unfolds across the “life” of the event? (Lessons)

  16. Insights from interviews regarding high fatality rate caused by the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ando, M.; Ishida, M.

    2012-12-01

    The 11 March 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake (Mw9.0) caused approximately 19,000 casualties including missing persons along the entire coast of the Tohoku region. Three historical tsunamis occurred in the past 115 years preceding this tsunami. Since these tsunamis, numerous countermeasures against future tsunamis such as breakwaters, early tsunami warning systems and tsunami evacuation drills were implemented. Despite the preparedness, a number of deaths and missing persons occurred. Although this death rate is approximately 4 % of the population in severely inundated areas; 96 % safely evacuated or managed to survive the tsunami. To understand why some people evacuated immediately while others delayed; survivors were interviewed in the northern part of the Tohoku region. Our interviews revealed that many residents obtained no appropriate warnings and many chose to remain in dangerous locations partly because they obtained the wrong idea of the risks. In addition, our interviews also indicated that the resultant high casualties were due to current technology malfunction, underestimated earthquake size and tsunami heights, and failure of warning systems. Furthermore, the existing breakwaters provided the local community a false sense of security. The advanced technology did not work properly, especially at the time of the severe disaster. If residents had taken an immediate action after the major shaking stopped, most local residents might have survived considering that safer highlands are within 5 to 20 minute walking distance from the interviewed areas. However, the elderly and physically disabled people would still be in a much more difficult situation to walk such distance into safety. Nevertheless, even if these problems occur in future earthquakes, better knowledge regarding earthquakes and tsunami hazards could save more lives. People must take immediate action without waiting for official warning or help. To avoid similar high tsunami death ratios in the future, residents including young children should be taught the basic mechanism of tsunami generation. Such basic knowledge can lead local residents to evacuate sooner, enabling more people to survive a tsunami even if warning systems or other technology would fail to function.

  17. Selecting species for marine assessment of radionuclides around Amchitka: planning for diverse goals and interests.

    PubMed

    Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael; Jewett, Stephen

    2006-12-01

    Considerable attention has been devoted to selecting bioindicator species as part of monitoring programs for exposure and effects from contaminants in the environment. Yet the rationale for selection of bioindicators is often literature-based, rather than developed with a firm site-specific base of data on contaminant levels in a diverse range of organisms at different trophic levels in the same ecosystem. We suggest that this latter step is an important phase in the environmental assessment process that is often missing. In this paper we address the problem of how to select a wide range of species representing different trophic levels that serve as a basis for selecting a few species suitable as bioindicators. We illustrate this with our assessment of radionuclides on Amchitka Island, Alaska. We propose a multi-stage process for arriving at the list of available species that includes review of literature, review by experts experienced in the area, review by interested and affected parties, selection of trophic levels or groups for analysis, arraying of possible species, and selection of species within each trophic level group for sample collection. We first had to identify all likely species, then narrow our focus to those we could collect and analyze. In all cases, review includes suggestions for possible target species with justifications. While this method increases the up-front costs of developing bioindicators for an ecosystem, it has the advantage of providing information for selection of species that will be most informative in the long run, including those that are the best bioaccumulators, thus providing the earliest warning of any potential environmental consequences. Further, the recognition that a range of stakeholder's needs and interests should be included increases the utility for public-policy makers, and the potential for continued usage to establish long-term trends.

  18. United States Earthquake Early Warning System: How Theory and Analysis Can Save America Before the Big One Happens

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2017-12-01

    integration within the American preparedness culture. Perhaps most importantly, the implementation of ShakeAlert will help prepare the people , businesses...disasters through the use of an earthquake warning system. In general, people have an expectation that authorities will protect society from natural... Society of America, potentially damaging earthquakes may threaten more than 143 million Americans in the next 50 years, and 28 million persons are

  19. Depth-related trends in morphological and functional diversity of demersal fish assemblages in the western Mediterranean Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farré, Marc; Tuset, Víctor M.; Cartes, Joan E.; Massutí, Enric; Lombarte, Antoni

    2016-09-01

    The morphological and functional traits of fishes are key factors defining the ecological and biological habits of species within ecosystems. However, little is known about how the depth gradient affects these factors. In the present study, several demersal fish assemblages from the Balearic Islands (western Mediterranean Sea) along a wide depth range (40-2200 m) were morphologically, functionally and ecologically described. The morphological characterization of communities was performed using geometric morphometric methods, while the functional structures were obtained by the functional categorization of species and the application of principal coordinates analysis (PCoA). The results revealed that morphospaces presented less richness of body forms as depth increases, although they showed a progressive spreading of species toward the periphery, with a proliferation of more extreme body traits, demonstrating lower morphological redundancy. In addition, a trend toward the elongation of body shape was also observed with depth. Moreover, functional diversity increased with bathymetry up to 1400 m, where it sharply decreased downwards. This decrease was parallel to a progressive fall of H‧ (ecological diversity) up to 2200 m. Functional redundancy progressively decreased until the deepest assemblage (more constantly in the deeper levels), which was almost exclusively dominated by benthopelagic wandering species feeding on suprabenthos. Redundancy analysis (RDA) demonstrated that both morphological and functional spaces showed high variation along the bathymetric range. Mantel test indicated that the majority of species presented similar spatial distribution within the morphospace and functional space, although in the functional space the more abundant species were always located at the periphery. These results demonstrate that the assessment of the morpho-functional variation between marine communities helps to understand the processes that affect the structure and functioning of communities, such as resource partitioning, trophic interactions, or interspecific relationships within ecosystem such as coexistence and dominance.

  20. Coral reefs promote the evolution of morphological diversity and ecological novelty in labrid fishes.

    PubMed

    Price, S A; Holzman, R; Near, T J; Wainwright, P C

    2011-05-01

    Although coral reefs are renowned biodiversity hotspots it is not known whether they also promote the evolution of exceptional ecomorphological diversity. We investigated this question by analysing a large functional morphological dataset of trophic characters within Labridae, a highly diverse group of fishes. Using an analysis that accounts for species relationships, the time available for diversification and model uncertainty we show that coral reef species have evolved functional morphological diversity twice as fast as non-reef species. In addition, coral reef species occupy 68.6% more trophic morphospace than non-reef species. Our results suggest that coral reef habitats promote the evolution of both trophic novelty and morphological diversity within fishes. Thus, the preservation of coral reefs is necessary, not only to safeguard current biological diversity but also to conserve the underlying mechanisms that can produce functional diversity in future. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

  1. Predictors for people's response to a tornado warning: Arkansas, 1 March 1997.

    PubMed

    Balluz, L; Schieve, L; Holmes, T; Kiezak, S; Malilay, J

    2000-03-01

    On 1 March 1997, powerful tornadoes touched down in Arkansas (USA) on a Saturday afternoon. Twenty-six fatalities and 400 non-fatal injuries were reported. We performed a population-based cross-sectional study to determine factors associated with appropriate responses to tornado warnings. Of 146 survey participants, 140 (96 per cent) knew the difference between 'tornado watch' and 'tornado warning' and were aware of when the warning was announced. Of those 140 participants, 64 (45.7 per cent) responded to the warning by seeking shelter, and 58 (90.6 per cent) of those 64 acted within five minutes of hearing the warning. Four factors were positively associated with those seeking shelter: having graduated from high school (OR = 4.2, 95 per cent CI = 1.1-15.5); having a basement in one's house (OR = 3.8, 95 per cent exact CI = 1.1-17.1); hearing a siren (OR = 4.4, 95 per cent CI = 1.3-18.9); and having prepared a household plan of response when tornadoes occur (OR = 2.6, 95 per cent CI = 1.1-6.3). On the basis of these findings, we recommend: first, that people who live in tornadoprone areas have a personal plan of action to help them respond immediately to warnings; second, public-health education officials in areas with frequent tornadic activity should do more to educate the public about what they can do to protect themselves from a tornado; and third, that emergency-management officials planning protection measures for vulnerable communities should consider that most people have limited time (our study documented five minutes) in which to respond to a tornado warning. Thus, shelters in tornado-prone areas should be quickly accessible by residents.

  2. Plant species traits are the predominant control on litter decomposition rates within biomes worldwide.

    PubMed

    Cornwell, William K; Cornelissen, Johannes H C; Amatangelo, Kathryn; Dorrepaal, Ellen; Eviner, Valerie T; Godoy, Oscar; Hobbie, Sarah E; Hoorens, Bart; Kurokawa, Hiroko; Pérez-Harguindeguy, Natalia; Quested, Helen M; Santiago, Louis S; Wardle, David A; Wright, Ian J; Aerts, Rien; Allison, Steven D; van Bodegom, Peter; Brovkin, Victor; Chatain, Alex; Callaghan, Terry V; Díaz, Sandra; Garnier, Eric; Gurvich, Diego E; Kazakou, Elena; Klein, Julia A; Read, Jenny; Reich, Peter B; Soudzilovskaia, Nadejda A; Vaieretti, M Victoria; Westoby, Mark

    2008-10-01

    Worldwide decomposition rates depend both on climate and the legacy of plant functional traits as litter quality. To quantify the degree to which functional differentiation among species affects their litter decomposition rates, we brought together leaf trait and litter mass loss data for 818 species from 66 decomposition experiments on six continents. We show that: (i) the magnitude of species-driven differences is much larger than previously thought and greater than climate-driven variation; (ii) the decomposability of a species' litter is consistently correlated with that species' ecological strategy within different ecosystems globally, representing a new connection between whole plant carbon strategy and biogeochemical cycling. This connection between plant strategies and decomposability is crucial for both understanding vegetation-soil feedbacks, and for improving forecasts of the global carbon cycle.

  3. Ecosystems for Early Warning: Potential Use of Bioindicators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zommers, Z. A.; Sitati, A. M.; Habilov, M.

    2014-12-01

    Bioindicators are biological processes, species or communities, which are used to assess changes in the environment or environmental quality. Theoretically, they could also be used to provide advanced warning of hazards. They are inexpensive, locally relevant, and can encourage stakeholder participation in early warning system development and maintenance. While bioindicators have been identified for environmental problems such as air pollution and water pollution, and have been used to assess health of ecosystems, little information is available on bioindicators for climate related hazards. This presentation reviews possible biodindicators for droughts, wildfires and tropical cyclones, based on the results of a literature review. It will also present results from a household survey of 36 communities in Kenya, Ghana and Burkina Faso. Indigenous knowledge offers a wealth of potential bioindicators; including animal and insect behavior, and plant phenology. Yet significant study is needed to verify these indicators and evaluate them against criteria such as specificity, variability, monotonicity, practicality and relevance. Bioindicators may not be specific to individual hazards and may provide limited advanced warning, as response often occurs after the actual onset of the hazard. Furthermore, indicators may become increasingly unreliable due to climate change itself. There is a need for a large-scale assessment of hazard bioindicators, which should also include forecasts of bioindicator change under global warming, and a cost-benefit analysis of the value of integrating bioindicators into early warning systems. Lessons can be drawn from ethnopharmacology. Coordinated research on this topic could contribute to the resilience of both ecosystems and human livelihoods.

  4. Individual and species-specific traits explain niche size and functional role in spiders as generalist predators.

    PubMed

    Sanders, Dirk; Vogel, Esther; Knop, Eva

    2015-01-01

    The function of a predator within a community is greatly based on its trophic niche, that is the number and the strength of feeding links. In generalist predators, which feed on a wide range of prey, the size and position of the trophic niche is likely determined by traits such as hunting mode, the stratum they occur in, their body size and age. We used stable isotope analyses ((13)C and (15)N) to measure the trophic niche size of nine spider species within a forest hedge community and tested for species traits and individual traits that influence stable isotope enrichment, niche size and resource use. The spiders Enoplognatha, Philodromus, Floronia, and Heliophanus had large isotopic niches, which correspond to a more generalistic feeding behaviour. In contrast, Araneus, Metellina and Agelena, as top predators in the system, had rather narrow niches. We found a negative correlation between trophic position and niche size. Differences in trophic position in spiders were explained by body size, hunting modes and stratum, while niche size was influenced by hunting mode. In Philodromus, the size of the trophic niche increased significantly with age. Fitting spiders to functional groups according to their mean body size, hunting mode and their habitat domain resulted in largely separated niches, which indicates that these traits are meaningful for separating functional entities in spiders. Functional groups based on habitat domain (stratum) caught the essential functional differences between the species with species higher up in the vegetation feeding on flying insects and herb and ground species also preying on forest floor decomposers. Interestingly, we found a gradient from large species using a higher habitat domain and having a smaller niche to smaller species foraging closer to the ground and having a larger niche. This shows that even within generalist predators, such as spiders, there is a gradient of specialism that can be predicted by functional traits. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

  5. Selection of multiple umbrella species for functional and taxonomic diversity to represent urban biodiversity.

    PubMed

    Sattler, T; Pezzatti, G B; Nobis, M P; Obrist, M K; Roth, T; Moretti, M

    2014-04-01

    Surrogates, such as umbrella species, are commonly used to reduce the complexity of quantifying biodiversity for conservation purposes. The presence of umbrella species is often indicative of high taxonomic diversity; however, functional diversity is now recognized as an important metric for biodiversity and thus should be considered when choosing umbrella species. We identified umbrella species associated with high taxonomic and functional biodiversity in urban areas in Switzerland. We analyzed 39,752 individuals of 574 animal species from 96 study plots and 1397 presences of 262 plant species from 58 plots. Thirty-one biodiversity measures of 7 taxonomic groups (plants, spiders, bees, ground beetles, lady bugs, weevils and birds) were included in within- and across-taxa analyses. Sixteen measures were taxonomical (species richness and species diversity), whereas 15 were functional (species traits including mobility, resource use, and reproduction). We used indicator value analysis to identify umbrella species associated with single or multiple biodiversity measures. Many umbrella species were indicators of high biodiversity within their own taxonomic group (from 33.3% in weevils to 93.8% in birds), to a lesser extent they were indicators across taxa. Principal component analysis revealed that umbrella species for multiple measures of biodiversity represented different aspects of biodiversity, especially with respect to measures of taxonomic and functional diversity. Thus, even umbrella species for multiple measures of biodiversity were complementary in the biodiversity aspects they represented. Thus, the choice of umbrella species based solely on taxonomic diversity is questionable and may not represent biodiversity comprehensively. Our results suggest that, depending on conservation priorities, managers should choose multiple and complementary umbrella species to assess the state of biodiversity. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  6. [Identifying children at risk for cardiorespiratory arrest].

    PubMed

    Carrillo Alvarez, A; Martínez Gutiérrez, A; Salvat Germán, F

    2004-08-01

    Cardiorespiratory arrest in children with severe disease does not usually present suddenly or unexpectedly but is often the result of a progressive deterioration of respiratory and/or circulatory function. Before failure of these functions occurs, there is a series of clinical signs that serve as a warning. Health professionals should not only evaluate clinical signs of respiratory and/or circulatory insufficiency but should also be able to identify these warning signs as early as possible, preferably in the compensation phase, given that the possibility that this process can be reversed by therapeutic measures decreases as the process progresses.

  7. Validation of Essential Acoustic Parameters for Highly Urgent In-Vehicle Collision Warnings.

    PubMed

    Lewis, Bridget A; Eisert, Jesse L; Baldwin, Carryl L

    2018-03-01

    Objective The aim of this study was to validate the importance of key acoustic criteria for use as in-vehicle forward collision warning (FCW) systems. Background Despite recent advances in vehicle safety, automobile crashes remain one of the leading causes of death. As automation allows for more control of noncritical functions by the vehicle, the potential for disengagement and distraction from the driving task also increases. It is, therefore, as important as ever that in-vehicle safety-critical interfaces are intuitive and unambiguous, promoting effective collision avoidance responses upon first exposure even under divided-attention conditions. Method The current study used a driving simulator to assess the effectiveness of two warnings, one that met all essential acoustic parameters, one that met only some essential parameters, and a no-warning control in the context of a lead vehicle-following task in conjunction with a cognitive distractor task and collision event. Results Participants receiving an FCW comprising five essential acoustic components had improved collision avoidance responses relative to a no-warning condition and an FCW missing essential elements on their first exposure. Responses to a consistently good warning (GMU Prime) improved with subsequent exposures, whereas continued exposure to the less optimal FCW (GMU Sub-Prime) resulted in poorer performance even relative to receiving no warning at all. Conclusions This study provides support for previous warning design studies and for the validity of five key acoustic parameters essential for the design of effective in-vehicle FCWs. Application Results from this study have implications for the design of auditory FCWs and in-vehicle display design.

  8. Adapting the EDuMaP method to test the performance of the Norwegian early warning system for weather-induced landslides

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piciullo, Luca; Dahl, Mads-Peter; Devoli, Graziella; Colleuille, Hervé; Calvello, Michele

    2017-06-01

    The Norwegian national landslide early warning system (LEWS), operational since 2013, is managed by the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate and was designed for monitoring and forecasting the hydrometeorological conditions potentially triggering slope failures. Decision-making in the LEWS is based upon rainfall thresholds, hydrometeorological and real-time landslide observations as well as on landslide inventory and susceptibility maps. Daily alerts are issued throughout the country considering variable size warning zones. Warnings are issued once per day for the following 3 days and can be updated according to weather forecasts and information gathered by the monitoring network. The performance of the LEWS operational in Norway has been evaluated applying the EDuMaP method, which is based on the computation of a duration matrix relating number of landslides and warning levels issued in a warning zone. In the past, this method has been exclusively employed to analyse the performance of regional early warning models considering fixed warning zones. Herein, an original approach is proposed for the computation of the elements of the duration matrix in the case of early warning models issuing alerts on variable size areas. The approach has been used to evaluate the warnings issued in Western Norway, in the period 2013-2014, considering two datasets of landslides. The results indicate that the landslide datasets do not significantly influence the performance evaluation, although a slightly better performance is registered for the smallest dataset. Different performance results are observed as a function of the values adopted for one of the most important input parameters of EDuMaP, the landslide density criterion (i.e. setting the thresholds to differentiate among classes of landslide events). To investigate this issue, a parametric analysis has been conducted; the results of the analysis show significant differences among computed performances when absolute or relative landslide density criteria are considered.

  9. Gene Expression Variation Resolves Species and Individual Strains among Coral-Associated Dinoflagellates within the Genus Symbiodinium.

    PubMed

    Parkinson, John E; Baumgarten, Sebastian; Michell, Craig T; Baums, Iliana B; LaJeunesse, Todd C; Voolstra, Christian R

    2016-02-11

    Reef-building corals depend on symbiotic mutualisms with photosynthetic dinoflagellates in the genus Symbiodinium. This large microalgal group comprises many highly divergent lineages ("Clades A-I") and hundreds of undescribed species. Given their ecological importance, efforts have turned to genomic approaches to characterize the functional ecology of Symbiodinium. To date, investigators have only compared gene expression between representatives from separate clades-the equivalent of contrasting genera or families in other dinoflagellate groups-making it impossible to distinguish between clade-level and species-level functional differences. Here, we examined the transcriptomes of four species within one Symbiodinium clade (Clade B) at ∼20,000 orthologous genes, as well as multiple isoclonal cell lines within species (i.e., cultured strains). These species span two major adaptive radiations within Clade B, each encompassing both host-specialized and ecologically cryptic taxa. Species-specific expression differences were consistently enriched for photosynthesis-related genes, likely reflecting selection pressures driving niche diversification. Transcriptional variation among strains involved fatty acid metabolism and biosynthesis pathways. Such differences among individuals are potentially a major source of physiological variation, contributing to the functional diversity of coral holobionts composed of unique host-symbiont genotype pairings. Our findings expand the genomic resources available for this important symbiont group and emphasize the power of comparative transcriptomics as a method for studying speciation processes and interindividual variation in nonmodel organisms. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

  10. ForWarn Forest Disturbance Change Detection System Provides a Weekly Snapshot of US Forest Conditions to Aid Forest Managers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hargrove, W. W.; Spruce, J.; Kumar, J.; Hoffman, F. M.

    2012-12-01

    The Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center and Western Wildland Environmental Assessment Center of the USDA Forest Service have collaborated with NASA Stennis Space Center to develop ForWarn, a forest monitoring tool that uses MODIS satellite imagery to produce weekly snapshots of vegetation conditions across the lower 48 United States. Forest and natural resource managers can use ForWarn to rapidly detect, identify, and respond to unexpected changes in the nation's forests caused by insects, diseases, wildfires, severe weather, or other natural or human-caused events. ForWarn detects most types of forest disturbances, including insects, disease, wildfires, frost and ice damage, tornadoes, hurricanes, blowdowns, harvest, urbanization, and landslides. It also detects drought, flood, and temperature effects, and shows early and delayed seasonal vegetation development. Operating continuously since January 2010, results show ForWarn to be a robust and highly capable tool for detecting changes in forest conditions. To help forest and natural resource managers rapidly detect, identify, and respond to unexpected changes in the nation's forests, ForWarn produces sets of national maps showing potential forest disturbances at 231m resolution every 8 days, and posts the results to the web for examination. ForWarn compares current greenness with the "normal," historically seen greenness that would be expected for healthy vegetation for a specific location and time of the year, and then identifies areas appearing less green than expected to provide a strategic national overview of potential forest disturbances that can be used to direct ground and aircraft efforts. In addition to forests, ForWarn also tracks potential disturbances in rangeland vegetation and agriculural crops. ForWarn is the first national-scale system of its kind based on remote sensing developed specifically for forest disturbances. The ForWarn system had an official unveiling and rollout in March 2012, initiated by a joint NASA and USDA press release, and followed by a series of training webinars. Almost 60 early-adopter state and federal forest managers attended at least one of the ForWarn rollout webinars. The ForWarn home page has had 2,632 unique visitors since rollout in March 2012, with 39% returning visits. ForWarn was used to map tornado scars from the historic April 27, 2011 tornado outbreak, and detected timber damage within more than a dozen tornado tracks across northern Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. ForWarn is the result of an ongoing, substantive cooperation among four different government agencies: USDA, NASA, USGS, and DOE. Disturbance maps are available on the web through the ForWarn Change Assessment Viewer at http://forwarn.forestthreats.org/fcav.

  11. The genetics of monarch butterfly migration and warning colouration.

    PubMed

    Zhan, Shuai; Zhang, Wei; Niitepõld, Kristjan; Hsu, Jeremy; Haeger, Juan Fernández; Zalucki, Myron P; Altizer, Sonia; de Roode, Jacobus C; Reppert, Steven M; Kronforst, Marcus R

    2014-10-16

    The monarch butterfly, Danaus plexippus, is famous for its spectacular annual migration across North America, recent worldwide dispersal, and orange warning colouration. Despite decades of study and broad public interest, we know little about the genetic basis of these hallmark traits. Here we uncover the history of the monarch's evolutionary origin and global dispersal, characterize the genes and pathways associated with migratory behaviour, and identify the discrete genetic basis of warning colouration by sequencing 101 Danaus genomes from around the globe. The results rewrite our understanding of this classic system, showing that D. plexippus was ancestrally migratory and dispersed out of North America to occupy its broad distribution. We find the strongest signatures of selection associated with migration centre on flight muscle function, resulting in greater flight efficiency among migratory monarchs, and that variation in monarch warning colouration is controlled by a single myosin gene not previously implicated in insect pigmentation.

  12. A trait-based approach to community assembly: partitioning of species trait values into within- and among-community components.

    PubMed

    Ackerly, D D; Cornwell, W K

    2007-02-01

    Plant functional traits vary both along environmental gradients and among species occupying similar conditions, creating a challenge for the synthesis of functional and community ecology. We present a trait-based approach that provides an additive decomposition of species' trait values into alpha and beta components: beta values refer to a species' position along a gradient defined by community-level mean trait values; alpha values are the difference between a species' trait values and the mean of co-occurring taxa. In woody plant communities of coastal California, beta trait values for specific leaf area, leaf size, wood density and maximum height all covary strongly, reflecting species distributions across a gradient of soil moisture availability. Alpha values, on the other hand, are generally not significantly correlated, suggesting several independent axes of differentiation within communities. This trait-based framework provides a novel approach to integrate functional ecology and gradient analysis with community ecology and coexistence theory.

  13. Power line detection system

    DOEpatents

    Latorre, V.R.; Watwood, D.B.

    1994-09-27

    A short-range, radio frequency (RF) transmitting-receiving system that provides both visual and audio warnings to the pilot of a helicopter or light aircraft of an up-coming power transmission line complex. Small, milliwatt-level narrowband transmitters, powered by the transmission line itself, are installed on top of selected transmission line support towers or within existing warning balls, and provide a continuous RF signal to approaching aircraft. The on-board receiver can be either a separate unit or a portion of the existing avionics, and can also share an existing antenna with another airborne system. Upon receipt of a warning signal, the receiver will trigger a visual and an audio alarm to alert the pilot to the potential power line hazard. 4 figs.

  14. HRAS: a webserver for early warning of human health risk brought by aflatoxin.

    PubMed

    Hu, Ruifeng; Zeng, Xu; Gao, Weiwei; Wang, Qian; Liu, Zhihua

    2013-02-01

    Most people are aware that outdoor air pollution can damage their health, but many do not know that indoor air pollution can also exhibit significant negative health effects. Fungi parasitizing in air conditioning and ventilation systems can be one of indoor air pollution sources. Aflatoxin produced by Aspergillus flavus (A. flavus) became a central focus of indoor air pollution, especially in farmer markets. Therefore we developed an early warning system, Health Risk Assessment System, to estimate the growth rate of A. flavus, predict the amount of aflatoxin and provide early warning information. Firstly, the growth of A. flavus and the production of aflatoxin under different conditions were widely obtained through a comprehensive literature review. Secondly, three mathematical models were established to predict the A. flavus colony growth rate, lag phase duration and aflatoxin content, as functions of temperature and water activity based on present studies. Finally, all the results were evaluated by the user-supplied data using PHP programming language. We utilized the web page to show the results and display warning information. The JpGraph library was used to create a dynamic line chart, refreshing the warning information dynamically in real-time. The HARS provides accurate information for early warning purposes to let us take timely steps to protect ourselves.

  15. 'It's more about the heroin': injection drug users' response to an overdose warning campaign in a Canadian setting.

    PubMed

    Kerr, Thomas; Small, Will; Hyshka, Elaine; Maher, Lisa; Shannon, Kate

    2013-07-01

    To assess heroin injectors' perceptions of and responses to a warning issued by public health officials regarding high-potency heroin and increases in fatal overdoses. Semi-structured qualitative interviews. Vancouver, Canada. Eighteen active heroin injectors. Semi-structured interview guide focussing on heroin injectors' perceptions of and responses to the overdose warning, including reasons for failing to adhere to risk reduction recommendations. Although nearly all participants were aware of the warning, their recollections of the message and the timing of its release were obscured by on-going social interactions within the drug scene focussed on heroin quality. Many injection drug users reported seeking the high potency heroin and nearly all reported no change in overdose risk behaviours. Responses to the warning were shaped by various social, economic and structural forces that interacted with individual behaviour and undermined efforts to promote behavioural change, including sales tactics employed by dealers, poverty, the high cost and shifting quality of available heroin, and risks associated with income-generating activities. Individual-level factors, including emotional suffering, withdrawal, entrenched injecting routines, perceived invincibility and the desire for intense intoxication also undermined risk reduction messages. Among heroin injectors in British Columbia, a 2011 overdose warning campaign appeared to be of limited effectiveness and also produced unintended negative consequences that exacerbated overdose risk. © 2013 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  16. Graphic imagery is not sufficient for increased attention to cigarette warnings: the role of text captions.

    PubMed

    Brown, Kyle G; Reidy, John G; Weighall, Anna R; Arden, Madelynne A

    2013-04-01

    The present study aims to assess the extent to which attention to UK cigarette warnings is attributable to the graphic nature of the content. A visual dot probe task was utilised, with the warnings serving as critical stimuli that were manipulated for the presence of graphic versus neutral image content, and the accompanying text caption. This mixed design yielded image content (graphic versus neutrally-matched images) and presence (versus absence) of text caption as within subjects variables and smoking status as a between-participants variable. The experiment took place within the laboratories of a UK university. Eighty-six psychology undergraduates (51% smokers, 69% female), predominantly of Caucasian ethnicity took part. Reaction times towards probes replacing graphic images relative to probes replacing neutral images were utilised to create an index of attentional bias. Bias scores (M = 10.20 ± 2.56) highlighted that the graphic image content of the warnings elicited attentional biases (relative to neutral images) for smokers. This only occurred in the presence of an accompanying text caption [t (43) = 3.950, P < 0.001] as opposed to when no caption was present [t (43) = 0.029, P = 0.977]. Non-smokers showed no biases in both instances. Graphic imagery on cigarette packets increases attentional capture, but only when accompanied by a text message about health risks. © 2012 The Authors, Addiction © 2012 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  17. A worldwide analysis of within-canopy variations in leaf structural, chemical and physiological traits across plant functional types

    PubMed Central

    Niinemets, Ülo; Keenan, Trevor F.; Hallik, Lea

    2018-01-01

    Summary Extensive within-canopy light gradients importantly affect photosynthetic productivity of leaves in different canopy positions and lead to light-dependent increases in foliage photosynthetic capacity per area (AA). However, the controls on AA variations by changes in underlying traits are poorly known. We constructed an unprecedented worldwide database including 831 within-canopy gradients with standardized light estimates for 304 species belonging to major vascular plant functional types, and analyzed within-canopy variations in 12 key foliage structural, chemical and physiological traits by quantitatively separating the contributions of different traits to photosynthetic acclimation. Although the light-dependent increase in AA is surprisingly similar in different plant functional types, they fundamentally differ in the share of the controls on AA by constituent traits. Species with high rates of canopy development and leaf turnover exhibiting highly dynamic light environments, actively change AA by nitrogen reallocation among and partitioning within leaves. In contrast, species with slow leaf turnover exhibit a passive AA acclimation response primarily determined by acclimation of leaf structure to growth light. This review emphasizes that different combinations of traits are responsible for within-canopy photosynthetic acclimation in different plant functional types and solves an old enigma of the role of mass- vs. area-based traits in vegetation acclimation. PMID:25318596

  18. Bird diversity and dissimilarity show contrasting patterns along heavy metal pollution gradients in the Urals, Russia.

    PubMed

    Belskii, Eugen A; Mikryukov, Vladimir S

    2018-05-07

    The effects of industrial pollution on bird diversity have been widely studied using traditional diversity measures, which assume all species to be equivalent. We compared species richness and Shannon index with distance-based measures of taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity (the abundance-weighted mean nearest taxon distances), which describe within-community dissimilarity at terminal branches. Analysis of dissimilarity can shed light on the processes underlying community assembly, i.e., environmental filtering decreases dissimilarity whereas competitive exclusion increases it. In the 2-year study near Karabash and Revda copper smelters in Russia, point counts of nesting birds and habitat descriptions were taken at 10 sites (40 plots) along each pollution gradient. The abundance and diversity of birds showed good repeatability in both regions. The total density of birds, number of species per plot, and Shannon diversity decreased at high toxic load in both regions. The taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic nearest taxon distances showed the same pattern within regions. Species dissimilarity within communities increased with pollution in Karabash (due to loss of functionally similar species), but did not change in Revda (due to mass replacement of forest species by species of open habitats). Pollution-induced changes in bird communities near Karabash were greater due to the stronger deterioration of the forest ecosystems and less favorable natural conditions (more arid climate, lower diversity and vitality of the tree stand and understorey) compared to Revda. This study emphasizes the need for a multi-level approach to the analysis of bird communities using traditional indices of diversity, functional, taxonomic, or phylogenetic distances between species and environmental variables.

  19. Spacelab - From early integration to first flight. I

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thirkettle, A.; di Mauro, F.; Stephens, R.

    1984-05-01

    Spacelab is a series of flight elements that can be assembled together in different configurations. The laboratory is designed to accommodate many payloads with totally different characteristics. Two models were built: one was tested functionally, integrated into an Engineering Model and delivered to NASA. The other was used for subsystem testing. The Spacelab system consists of several functional elements within the Module, Igloo and Pallet structures: an Electric Power Distribution Subsystem, a Command and Data Management Subsystem, Software, Caution-and-Warning Subsystem and an Environmental Control Subsystem. The Engineering Model tests were conducted in Europe from April 1978 through October 1980, delivery of the laboratory to JFK Space Center, Florida was in December 1980, and the first flight was made in November 1983 on Space Shuttle STS-9.

  20. Detecting extinction risk from climate change by IUCN Red List criteria.

    PubMed

    Keith, David A; Mahony, Michael; Hines, Harry; Elith, Jane; Regan, Tracey J; Baumgartner, John B; Hunter, David; Heard, Geoffrey W; Mitchell, Nicola J; Parris, Kirsten M; Penman, Trent; Scheele, Ben; Simpson, Christopher C; Tingley, Reid; Tracy, Christopher R; West, Matt; Akçakaya, H Resit

    2014-06-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is a key threat to global biodiversity. To inform strategic actions aimed at conserving biodiversity as climate changes, conservation planners need early warning of the risks faced by different species. The IUCN Red List criteria for threatened species are widely acknowledged as useful risk assessment tools for informing conservation under constraints imposed by limited data. However, doubts have been expressed about the ability of the criteria to detect risks imposed by potentially slow-acting threats such as climate change, particularly because criteria addressing rates of population decline are assessed over time scales as short as 10 years. We used spatially explicit stochastic population models and dynamic species distribution models projected to future climates to determine how long before extinction a species would become eligible for listing as threatened based on the IUCN Red List criteria. We focused on a short-lived frog species (Assa darlingtoni) chosen specifically to represent potential weaknesses in the criteria to allow detailed consideration of the analytical issues and to develop an approach for wider application. The criteria were more sensitive to climate change than previously anticipated; lead times between initial listing in a threatened category and predicted extinction varied from 40 to 80 years, depending on data availability. We attributed this sensitivity primarily to the ensemble properties of the criteria that assess contrasting symptoms of extinction risk. Nevertheless, we recommend the robustness of the criteria warrants further investigation across species with contrasting life histories and patterns of decline. The adequacy of these lead times for early warning depends on practicalities of environmental policy and management, bureaucratic or political inertia, and the anticipated species response times to management actions. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

  1. Responses to warnings about the impact of eating disorders on fertility: a qualitative study.

    PubMed

    Holmes, Su

    2018-05-01

    Eating disorders (EDs) have often been discussed as a risk to reproductive health. But existing research is quantitative in nature, paying no attention to issues of patient experience. In discussing data from 24 semi-structured interviews, this article draws on sociological approaches to medical 'risk' and feminist approaches to EDs to explore how women with experience of an ED responded to fertility warnings within treatment contexts. In doing so, it is suggested that responses to fertility warnings offer unique insight into the potentially damaging limitations of biomedical approaches to eating problems and their focus on EDs as individual 'pathologies' (rather than culturally embedded expressions of gendered embodiment). At best warnings are seen as making problematic assumptions about the aspirations of female patients, which may curtail feelings of agency and choice. At worst, they may push women further into destructive bodily and eating practices, and silence the distress that may be articulated by an ED. © 2018 Foundation for the Sociology of Health & Illness.

  2. The effectiveness of strategies such as health warning labels to reduce alcohol-related harms - an Australian perspective.

    PubMed

    Stockley, C S.

    2001-07-01

    The efficacy of health warning labels for products such as alcoholic beverages continue to be debated internationally and now in Australia as a means of mitigating the misuse of alcohol within community groups. This paper discusses evidence emanating primarily from the USA that has adopted a health warning label for both alcohol and tobacco, and from Australia that has adopted a health warning label for tobacco, on the effectiveness of such a strategy in changing consumer behaviour. The conclusion drawn is that such labelling is generally ineffective in changing consumer behaviour and hence such a strategy is inappropriate for reducing alcohol-related harms. The paper also discusses briefly what advertising and messages influence consumers, positively and negatively, and what specific strategies have been shown to better educate consumers and change their consumption from excessive to light to moderate as defined by the (Australian) National Health and Medical Research Council, which is the present premise of harm minimisation in Australia.

  3. Understanding relationships among abundance, extirpation, and climate at ecoregional scales.

    PubMed

    Beever, Erik A; Dobrowski, S Z; Long, J; Mynsberge, A R; Piekielek, N B

    2013-07-01

    Recent research on mountain-dwelling species has illustrated changes in species distributional patterns in response to climate change. Abundance of a species will likely provide an earlier warning indicator of change than will occupancy, yet relationships between abundance and climatic factors have received less attention. We tested whether predictors of counts of American pikas (Ochotona princeps) during surveys from the Great Basin region in 1994-1999 and 2003-2008 differed between the two periods. Additionally, we tested whether various modeled aspects of ecohydrology better predicted relative density than did average annual precipitation, and whether risk of site-wide extirpation predicted subsequent population counts of pikas. We observed several patterns of change in pika abundance at range edges that likely constitute early warnings of distributional shifts. Predictors of pika abundance differed strongly between the survey periods, as did pika extirpation patterns previously reported from this region. Additionally, maximum snowpack and growing-season precipitation resulted in better-supported models than those using average annual precipitation, and constituted two of the top three predictors of pika density in the 2000s surveys (affecting pikas perhaps via vegetation). Unexpectedly, we found that extirpation risk positively predicted subsequent population size. Our results emphasize the need to clarify mechanisms underlying biotic responses to recent climate change at organism-relevant scales, to inform management and conservation strategies for species of concern.

  4. Mountains as early warning indicators of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, M. W.

    2015-12-01

    The panoramic splendor and complexity of mountain environments have inspired and challenged humans for centuries. These areas have been variously perceived as physical structures to be conquered, as sites of spiritual inspiration, and as some of the last untamed natural places on Earth. In our time, the perception that "mountains are forever" may provide solace to those seeking stability in a rapidly changing world. However, changes in the hydrology and in the abundance and species composition of the native flora and fauna of mountain ecosystems are potential bellwethers of global change, because these systems have a propensity to amplify environmental changes within specific portions of this landscape. Mountain areas are thus sentinels of climate change. We are seeing effects today in case histories I present from the Himalaya's, Andes, Alps, and Rocky Mountains. Furthermore, these ecosystem changes are occurring in mountain areas before they occur in downstream ecosystems. Thus, mountains are early warning indicators of perturbations such as climate change. The sensitivity of mountain ecosystems begs for enhanced protection and worldwide protection. Our understanding of the processes that control mountain ecosystems—climate interactions, snowmelt runoff, biotic diversity, nutrient cycling—is much less developed compared to downstream ecosystems where human habitation and development has resulted in large investments in scientific knowledge to sustain health and agriculture. To address these deficiencies, I propose the formation of an international mountain research consortium.

  5. An in-situ infection detection sensor coating for urinary catheters

    PubMed Central

    Milo, Scarlet; Thet, Naing Tun; Liu, Dan; Nzakizwanayo, Jonathan; Jones, Brian V.; Jenkins, A. Toby A.

    2016-01-01

    We describe a novel infection-responsive coating for urinary catheters that provides a clear visual early warning of Proteus mirabilis infection and subsequent blockage. The crystalline biofilms of P. mirabilis can cause serious complications for patients undergoing long-term bladder catheterisation. Healthy urine is around pH 6, bacterial urease increases urine pH leading to the precipitation of calcium and magnesium deposits from the urine, resulting in dense crystalline biofilms on the catheter surface that blocks urine flow. The coating is a dual layered system in which the lower poly(vinyl alcohol) layer contains the self-quenching dye carboxyfluorescein. This is capped by an upper layer of the pH responsive polymer poly(methyl methacrylate-co-methacrylic acid) (Eudragit S100®). Elevation of urinary pH (>pH 7) dissolves the Eudragit layer, releasing the dye to provide a clear visual warning of impending blockage. Evaluation of prototype coatings using a clinically relevant in vitro bladder model system demonstrated that coatings provide up to 12 h advanced warning of blockage, and are stable both in the absence of infection, and in the presence of species that do not cause catheter blockage. At the present time, there are no effective methods to control these infections or provide warning of impending catheter blockage. PMID:26945183

  6. Within-species patterns challenge our understanding of the causes and consequences of trait variation with implications for trait-based models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderegg, L. D.; Berner, L. T.; Badgley, G.; Hillerislambers, J.; Law, B. E.

    2017-12-01

    Functional traits could facilitate ecological prediction by provide scale-free tools for modeling ecosystem function. Yet much of their utility lies in three key assumptions: 1) that global patterns of trait covariation are the result of universal trade-offs independent of taxonomic scale, so empirical trait-trait relationships can be used to constrain vegetation models 2) that traits respond predictably to environmental gradients and can therefore be reliably quantified to parameterize models and 3) that well sampled traits influence productivity. We use an extensive dataset of within-species leaf trait variation in North American conifers combined with global leaf trait datasets to test these assumptions. We examine traits central to the `leaf economics spectrum', and quantify patterns of trait variation at multiple taxonomic scales. We also test whether site environment explains geographic trait variation within conifers, and ask whether foliar traits explain geographic variation in relative growth rates. We find that most leaf traits vary primarily between rather than within species globally, but that a large fraction of within-PFT trait variation is within-species. We also find that some leaf economics spectrum relationships differ in sign within versus between species, particularly the relationship between leaf lifespan and LMA. In conifers, we find weak and inconsistent relationships between site environment and leaf traits, making it difficult capture within-species leaf trait variation for regional model parameterization. Finally, we find limited relationships between tree relative growth rate and any foliar trait other than leaf lifespan, with leaf traits jointly explaining 42% of within-species growth variation but environmental factors explaining 77% of variation. We suggest that additional traits, particularly whole plant allometry/allocation traits may be better than leaf traits for improving vegetation model performance at smaller taxonomic and spatial scales.

  7. Reactions of Chinese adults to warning labels on cigarette packages: A survey in Jiangsu Province

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background To compare reactions to warning labels presented on cigarette packages with a specific focus on whether the new Chinese warning labels are better than the old labels and international labels. Methods Participants aged 18 and over were recruited in two cities of Jiangsu Province in 2008, and 876 face-to-face interviews were completed. Participants were shown six types of warning labels found on cigarette packages. They comprised one old Chinese label, one new label used within the Chinese market, and one Chinese overseas label and three foreign brand labels. Participants were asked about the impact of the warning labels on: their knowledge of harm from smoking, giving cigarettes as a gift, and quitting smoking. Results Compared with the old Chinese label, a higher proportion of participants said the new label provided clear information on harm caused by smoking (31.2% vs 18.3%). Participants were less likely to give cigarettes with the new label on the package compared with the old label (25.2% vs 20.8%). These proportions were higher when compared to the international labels. Overall, 26.8% of participants would quit smoking based on information from the old label and 31.5% from the new label. When comparing the Chinese overseas label and other foreign labels to the new Chinese label with regard to providing knowledge of harm warning, impact of quitting smoking and giving cigarettes as a gift, the overseas labels were more effective. Conclusion Both the old and the new Chinese warning label are not effective in this target population. PMID:21349205

  8. Contrasting Ecosystem-Effects of Morphologically Similar Copepods

    PubMed Central

    Matthews, Blake; Hausch, Stephen; Winter, Christian; Suttle, Curtis A.; Shurin, Jonathan B.

    2011-01-01

    Organisms alter the biotic and abiotic conditions of ecosystems. They can modulate the availability of resources to other species (ecosystem engineering) and shape selection pressures on other organisms (niche construction). Very little is known about how the engineering effects of organisms vary among and within species, and, as a result, the ecosystem consequences of species diversification and phenotypic evolution are poorly understood. Here, using a common gardening experiment, we test whether morphologically similar species and populations of Diaptomidae copepods (Leptodiaptomus ashlandi, Hesperodiaptomus franciscanus, Skistodiaptomus oregonensis) have similar or different effects on the structure and function of freshwater ecosystems. We found that copepod species had contrasting effects on algal biomass, ammonium concentrations, and sedimentation rates, and that copepod populations had contrasting effects on prokaryote abundance, sedimentation rates, and gross primary productivity. The average size of ecosystem-effect contrasts between species was similar to those between populations, and was comparable to those between fish species and populations measured in previous common gardening experiments. Our results suggest that subtle morphological variation among and within species can cause multifarious and divergent ecosystem-effects. We conclude that using morphological trait variation to assess the functional similarity of organisms may underestimate the importance of species and population diversity for ecosystem functioning. PMID:22140432

  9. Effectiveness of FDA's new over-the-counter acetaminophen warning label in improving consumer risk perception of liver damage.

    PubMed

    Goyal, R K; Rajan, S S; Essien, E J; Sansgiry, S S

    2012-12-01

    The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued new organ-specific warning label requirements for over-the-counter (OTC) analgesic products in order to make consumers aware of the risk of liver damage when using acetaminophen. However, awareness of a health risk alone cannot ensure consumers' engagement in safe and preventive behaviour. In this study, we attempted to: (i) measure consumer risk perception of liver damage due to the OTC acetaminophen products and (ii) analyse the effectiveness of the new organ-specific warning label in improving consumer risk perception of liver damage and intention to perform protective behaviours while using OTC acetaminophen products. This within-subject experimental study used a convenience sample of English-speaking adults visiting OTC segments of selected pharmacy stores in Houston. Participants were randomly exposed to the old and new warning labels and their respective risk perception (measured on a visual analogue scale, 0%, no risk, to 100%, extreme risk) and behavioural intention (measured on a 7-point Likert scale) were recorded using a validated, self-administered questionnaire. Descriptive statistics and non-parametric Wilcoxon signed-rank tests were performed using sas statistical software (v 9.2) at a priori significance level of 0.05. Majority of participants (74.4%) were not aware of the new warnings; however, majority (67.8%) had prior knowledge of the risk. The mean risk perception score for the new warning label was found to be significantly higher (72.2% vs. 65.9%, P < 0.0001) than the old warning label. Similarly, the average intention score for the new warning label was significantly higher (5.06 vs. 4.86, P < 0.0001) than the old warning label. The new warning label mandated by FDA is effective in improving consumer risk perception of potential liver damage and may encourage protective behaviour. However, future studies are essential to assess the impact of the new label on actual changes in consumer behaviour and subsequent reduction in acetaminophen-related morbidity and mortality. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  10. UV-Visible Spectroscopic Method and Models for Assessment and Monitoring of Harmful Algal Blooms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mitchell, B. Greg

    2000-01-01

    The development of an enhanced predictive and early warning capability for the occurrence and impact of harmful algal blooms (HABs) would be of great benefit to coastal communities. A critical issue for early detection and monitoring of HABs is the need to detect harmful algal species within a mixed-species phytoplankton assemblage. Possession of UV-absorbing compounds called mycosporine-like amino acids (MAAs) may be one factor that allows HAB species to out-compete their phytoplankton neighbors. Possession of MAAs, which we believe can be inferred from strong UV-absorption signals in phytoplankton absorption coefficients, can be used as a flag for potential HAB outbreak. The goal of this project was to develop a solar simulating UV-visible incubator to grow HAB dinoflagellates, to begin MAA analysis of samples collected on global cruises, and to carry out initial experiments on HAB dinoflagellate species in pure culture. Our scientific objectives are to quantify MAA production and spectral induction mechanisms in HAB species, to characterize spectral absorption of MAAs, and to define the ecological benefit of MAAs (i.e. photoprotection). Data collected on cruises to the global oceans will be used to parameterize phytoplankton absorption in the UV region, and this parameterization could be incorporated into existing models of seawater optical properties in the UV spectral region. Data collected in this project were used for graduate fellowship applications by Elizabeth Frame. She has been awarded an EPA STAR fellowship to continue the work initiated by this project.

  11. Tsunami Amplitude Estimation from Real-Time GNSS.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jeffries, C.; MacInnes, B. T.; Melbourne, T. I.

    2017-12-01

    Tsunami early warning systems currently comprise modeling of observations from the global seismic network, deep-ocean DART buoys, and a global distribution of tide gauges. While these tools work well for tsunamis traveling teleseismic distances, saturation of seismic magnitude estimation in the near field can result in significant underestimation of tsunami excitation for local warning. Moreover, DART buoy and tide gauge observations cannot be used to rectify the underestimation in the available time, typically 10-20 minutes, before local runup occurs. Real-time GNSS measurements of coseismic offsets may be used to estimate finite faulting within 1-2 minutes and, in turn, tsunami excitation for local warning purposes. We describe here a tsunami amplitude estimation algorithm; implemented for the Cascadia subduction zone, that uses continuous GNSS position streams to estimate finite faulting. The system is based on a time-domain convolution of fault slip that uses a pre-computed catalog of hydrodynamic Green's functions generated with the GeoClaw shallow-water wave simulation software and maps seismic slip along each section of the fault to points located off the Cascadia coast in 20m of water depth and relies on the principle of the linearity in tsunami wave propagation. The system draws continuous slip estimates from a message broker, convolves the slip with appropriate Green's functions which are then superimposed to produce wave amplitude at each coastal location. The maximum amplitude and its arrival time are then passed into a database for subsequent monitoring and display. We plan on testing this system using a suite of synthetic earthquakes calculated for Cascadia whose ground motions are simulated at 500 existing Cascadia GPS sites, as well as real earthquakes for which we have continuous GNSS time series and surveyed runup heights, including Maule, Chile 2010 and Tohoku, Japan 2011. This system has been implemented in the CWU Geodesy Lab for the Cascadia subduction zone but will be expanded to the circum-Pacific as real-time processing of international GNSS data streams become available.

  12. Evaluation of four seagrass species as early warning indicators for nitrogen overloading: Implications for eutrophic evaluation and ecosystem management.

    PubMed

    Yang, Xiaolong; Zhang, Peidong; Li, Wentao; Hu, Chengye; Zhang, Xiumei; He, Pingguo

    2018-04-23

    Seagrasses are major coastal primary producers and are widely distributed on coasts worldwide. Seagrasses show sensitivity to environmental stress due to their high phenotypic plasticity, and therefore, we evaluated the use of constituent elements in four dominant seagrass species as early warning indicators for nitrogen eutrophication of coastal regions. A meta-analysis was conducted with published data to develop a global benchmark for the selected indicator, which was used to evaluate nitrogen loading at a global scale. A case study at three bays was subsequently conducted to test for local-scale differences in leaf C/N ratios in four seagrasses. Additionally, morphological and physiological metrics of seagrasses were measured from the three locations under varied nitrogen levels to develop further assessment indexes. The benchmark and local study showed that leaf C/N ratios of Zostera marina were sensitive to nitrogen discharge, which could be a highly valuable early warning indicator on a global scale. Moreover, the threshold value of seagrass leaf C/N was determined according to the benchmark to differentiate eutrophic and low nitrogen levels at a local scale. Of the eight phenotypic metrics measured, leaf width, total chlorophyll (a + b), chlorophyll ratio (a/b), and starch in the rhizome were the most effective at discriminating between the three locations and could also be promising indicators for monitoring eutrophication. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  13. Phylogenetic Distribution of Leaf Spectra and Optically Derived Functional Traits in the American Oaks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cavender-Bares, J.; Meireles, J. E.; Couture, J. J.; Kaproth, M.; Townsend, P. A.

    2015-12-01

    Detecting functional traits of species, genotypes and phylogenetic lineages is critical in monitoring functional biodiversity remotely. We examined the phylogenetic distribution of leaf spectra across the American Oaks for 35 species under greenhouse conditions as well as genetic variation in leaf spectra across Central American populations of a single species grown in common gardens in Honduras. We found significant phylogenetic signal in the leaf spectra (Blomberg's K > 1.0), indicating similarity in spectra among close relatives. Across species, full range leaf spectra were used in a Partial Least Squares Discriminant Analysis (PLS-DA) that allowed species calibration (kappa statistic = 0.55). Validation of the model used to detect species (kappa statistic = 0.4) indicated reasonably good detection of individual species within the same the genus. Among four populations from Belize, Costa Rica, Honduras, and Mexico within a single species (Quercus oleoides), leaf spectra were also able to differentiate populations. Ordination of population-level data using dissimilarities of predicted foliar traits, including leaf mass per area (LMA), lignin content, fiber content, chlorophyll a+b, and C:N ratio in genotypes in either watered or unwatered conditions showed significant differentiation among populations and treatments. These results provide promise for remote detection and differentiation of plant functional traits among plant phylogenetic lineages and genotypes, even among closely related populations and species.

  14. Assembly rules for functional groups of North American shrews: effects of geographic range and habitat partitioning

    Treesearch

    Timothy S. McCay; Matthew J. Lovallo; W. Mark Ford; Michael A. Menzel; Michael A. Menzel

    2004-01-01

    We examined the representation of shrew species within assemblages at 197 sites in the southern Appalachian Mountains, USA. Assemblages were classified according to representation of functional groups, including fossorial, small epigeal, and large epigeal. Average (9?SD) species richness was 2.99?1.0 and assemblages averaged 0.8 species in the fossorial and large...

  15. Collapsing avian community on a Hawaiian island.

    PubMed

    Paxton, Eben H; Camp, Richard J; Gorresen, P Marcos; Crampton, Lisa H; Leonard, David L; VanderWerf, Eric A

    2016-09-01

    The viability of many species has been jeopardized by numerous negative factors over the centuries, but climate change is predicted to accelerate and increase the pressure of many of these threats, leading to extinctions. The Hawaiian honeycreepers, famous for their spectacular adaptive radiation, are predicted to experience negative responses to climate change, given their susceptibility to introduced disease, the strong linkage of disease distribution to climatic conditions, and their current distribution. We document the rapid collapse of the native avifauna on the island of Kaua'i that corresponds to changes in climate and disease prevalence. Although multiple factors may be pressuring the community, we suggest that a tipping point has been crossed in which temperatures in forest habitats at high elevations have reached a threshold that facilitates the development of avian malaria and its vector throughout these species' ranges. Continued incursion of invasive weeds and non-native avian competitors may be facilitated by climate change and could also contribute to declines. If current rates of decline continue, we predict multiple extinctions in the coming decades. Kaua'i represents an early warning for the forest bird communities on the Maui and Hawai'i islands, as well as other species around the world that are trapped within a climatic space that is rapidly disappearing.

  16. Sound the alarm: A meta-analysis on the effect of aquatic noise on fish behavior and physiology.

    PubMed

    Cox, Kieran; Brennan, Lawrence P; Gerwing, Travis G; Dudas, Sarah E; Juanes, Francis

    2018-07-01

    The aquatic environment is increasingly bombarded by a wide variety of noise pollutants whose range and intensity are increasing with each passing decade. Yet, little is known about how aquatic noise affects marine communities. To determine the implications that changes to the soundscape may have on fishes, a meta-analysis was conducted focusing on the ramifications of noise on fish behavior and physiology. Our meta-analysis identified 42 studies that produced 2,354 data points, which in turn indicated that anthropogenic noise negatively affects fish behavior and physiology. The most predominate responses occurred within foraging ability, predation risk, and reproductive success. Additionally, anthropogenic noise was shown to increase the hearing thresholds and cortisol levels of numerous species while tones, biological, and environmental noise were most likely to affect complex movements and swimming abilities. These findings suggest that the majority of fish species are sensitive to changes in the aquatic soundscape, and depending on the noise source, species responses may have extreme and negative fitness consequences. As such, this global synthesis should serve as a warning of the potentially dire consequences facing marine ecosystems if alterations to aquatic soundscapes continue on their current trajectory. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. The Tropical Ecology, Assessment and Monitoring (TEAM) Network: An early warning system for tropical rain forests.

    PubMed

    Rovero, Francesco; Ahumada, Jorge

    2017-01-01

    While there are well established early warning systems for a number of natural phenomena (e.g. earthquakes, catastrophic fires, tsunamis), we do not have an early warning system for biodiversity. Yet, we are losing species at an unprecedented rate, and this especially occurs in tropical rainforests, the biologically richest but most eroded biome on earth. Unfortunately, there is a chronic gap in standardized and pan-tropical data in tropical forests, affecting our capacity to monitor changes and anticipate future scenarios. The Tropical Ecology, Assessment and Monitoring (TEAM) Network was established to contribute addressing this issue, as it generates real time data to monitor long-term trends in tropical biodiversity and guide conservation practice. We present the Network and focus primarily on the Terrestrial Vertebrates protocol, that uses systematic camera trapping to detect forest mammals and birds, and secondarily on the Zone of Interaction protocol, that measures changes in the anthroposphere around the core monitoring area. With over 3 million images so far recorded, and managed using advanced information technology, TEAM has created the most important data set on tropical forest mammals globally. We provide examples of site-specific and global analyses that, combined with data on anthropogenic disturbance collected in the larger ecosystem where monitoring sites are, allowed us to understand the drivers of changes of target species and communities in space and time. We discuss the potential of this system as a candidate model towards setting up an early warning system that can effectively anticipate changes in coupled human-natural system, trigger management actions, and hence decrease the gap between research and management responses. In turn, TEAM produces robust biodiversity indicators that meet the requirements set by global policies such as the Aichi Biodiversity Targets. Standardization in data collection and public sharing of data in near real time are essential features of such system. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Estimating the Critical Point of Crowding in the Emergency Department for the Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Y.; Pan, C.; Tseng, C.; Wen, J.

    2011-12-01

    The purpose of this study is to deduce a function from the admissions/discharge rate of patient flow to estimate a "Critical Point" that provides a reference for warning systems in regards to crowding in the emergency department (ED) of a hospital or medical clinic. In this study, a model of "Input-Throughput-Output" was used in our established mathematical function to evaluate the critical point. The function is defined as dPin/dt=dwait/dt+Cp×B+ dPout/dt where Pin= number of registered patients, Pwait= number of waiting patients, Cp= retention rate per bed (calculated for the critical point), B= number of licensed beds in the treatment area, and Pout= number of patients discharged from the treatment area. Using the average Cp of ED crowding, we could start the warning system at an appropriate time and then plan for necessary emergency response to facilitate the patient process more smoothly. It was concluded that ED crowding could be quantified using the average value of Cp and the value could be used as a reference for medical staff to give optimal emergency medical treatment to patients. Therefore, additional practical work should be launched to collect more precise quantitative data.

  19. Warning color changes in response to food deprivation in the pipevine swallowtail butterfly, Battus philenor.

    PubMed

    Pegram, Kimberly V; Nahm, Alexandra C; Rutowski, Ronald L

    2013-01-01

    Predation on distasteful animals should favor warning coloration that is relatively conspicuous and phenotypically invariable. However, even among similarly colored individuals there can be variation in their warning signals. In butterflies, individual differences in larval feeding history could cause this variation. The warning signal of the pipevine swallowtail butterfly, Battus philenor L. (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae) consists of both a blue iridescent patch and pigmentbased orange spots on the ventral hindwing. B. philenor males also display a dorsal surface iridescent patch that functions as a sexual indicator signal. A previous study of iridescence in B. philenor found that the iridescent blue on both the dorsal and ventral hind wings is variable and significantly different between lab-reared and field-caught individuals. These differences could be the result of larval food deprivation in the field. Through experimental manipulation of larval diet, larval food deprivation was evaluated as a potential cause of the differences observed between lab and field individuals, and if food deprivation is a source of inter-individual variation in warning signals. B. philenor larvae were food restricted starting at two points in the last larval instar, and one group was fed through pupation. Adult coloration was then compared. Food deprivation led to poorer adult condition, as indicated by lower adult body mass, forewing length, and fat content of stressed individuals. As the level of food deprivation increased, the hue of the iridescent patches on both the dorsal and ventral hind wing shifted to shorter wavelengths, and the chroma of the orange spots decreased. The shifts in iridescent color did not match the differences previously found between lab and field individuals. However, the treatment differences indicate that food deprivation may be a significant source of warning color variation. The differences between the treatment groups are likely detectable by predators, but the effect of the variation on signal effectiveness and function remains to be empirically explored.

  20. Impact of FDA Actions, DTCA, and Public Information on the Market for Pain Medication.

    PubMed

    Bradford, W David; Kleit, Andrew N

    2015-07-01

    Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are one of the most important classes of prescription drugs used by primary care physicians to manage pain. The NSAID class of products has a somewhat controversial history, around which a complex regulatory and informational environment has developed. This history includes a boxed warning mandated by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for all NSAIDs in 2005. We investigate the impact that various information shocks have had on the use of prescription medications for pain in primary care in the USA. We accomplish this by extracting data on nearly 600,000 patients from a unique nationwide electronic medical record database and estimate the probability of any active prescription for the four types of pain medications as a function of FDA actions, advertising, media coverage, and patient characteristics. We find that even after accounting for multiple sources of information, the FDA label changes and boxed warnings had a significant effect on pain medication prescribing. The boxed warning did not have the same impact on the use of all NSAID inhibitors. We find that the boxed warning reduced the use of NSAID COX-2 inhibitor use, which was the focus of much of the press attention. In contrast, however, the warning actually increased the use of non-COX-2 NSAID inhibitors. Thus, the efficacy of the FDA's black box warning is clearly mixed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. Continuous estimates on the earthquake early warning magnitude by use of the near-field acceleration records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Jun; Jin, Xing; Wei, Yongxiang; Zhang, Hongcai

    2013-10-01

    In this article, the seismic records of Japan's Kik-net are selected to measure the acceleration, displacement, and effective peak acceleration of each seismic record within a certain time after P wave, then a continuous estimation is given on earthquake early warning magnitude through statistical analysis method, and Wenchuan earthquake record is utilized to check the method. The results show that the reliability of earthquake early warning magnitude continuously increases with the increase of the seismic information, the biggest residual happens if the acceleration is adopted to fit earthquake magnitude, which may be caused by rich high-frequency components and large dispersion of peak value in acceleration record, the influence caused by the high-frequency components can be effectively reduced if the effective peak acceleration and peak displacement is adopted, it is estimated that the dispersion of earthquake magnitude obviously reduces, but it is easy for peak displacement to be affected by long-period drifting. In various components, the residual enlargement phenomenon at vertical direction is almost unobvious, thus it is recommended in this article that the effective peak acceleration at vertical direction is preferred to estimate earthquake early warning magnitude. Through adopting Wenchuan strong earthquake record to check the method mentioned in this article, it is found that this method can be used to quickly, stably, and accurately estimate the early warning magnitude of this earthquake, which shows that this method is completely applicable for earthquake early warning.

  2. Adolescent girls and young adult women's perceptions of superslims cigarette packaging: a qualitative study.

    PubMed

    Ford, Allison; Moodie, Crawford; Purves, Richard; MacKintosh, Anne Marie

    2016-01-08

    To explore perceptions of superslims packaging, including compact 'lipstick' packs, in line with 3 potential impacts identified within the impact assessment of the European Union (EU) Tobacco Products Directive: appeal, harm perceptions and the seriousness of warning of health risks. Qualitative focus group study. Informal community venues in Scotland, UK. 75 female non-smokers and occasional smokers (age range 12-24). Compact 'lipstick'-type superslims packs were perceived most positively and rated as most appealing. They were also viewed as less harmful than more standard sized cigarette packs because of their smaller size and likeness to cosmetics. Additionally, 'lipstick' packs were rated as less serious in terms of warning about the health risks associated with smoking, either because the small font size of the warnings was difficult to read or because the small pack size prevented the text on the warnings from being displayed properly. Bright pack colours and floral designs were also thought to detract from the health warning. As superslims packs were found to increase appeal, mislead with respect to level of harm, and undermine the on-pack health warnings, this provides support for the decision to ban 'lipstick'-style cigarette packs in the EU and has implications for policy elsewhere. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  3. Variability in soil-water retention properties and implications for physics-based simulation of landslide early warning criteria

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thomas, Matthew A.; Mirus, Benjamin B.; Collins, Brian D.; Lu, Ning; Godt, Jonathan W.

    2018-01-01

    Rainfall-induced shallow landsliding is a persistent hazard to human life and property. Despite the observed connection between infiltration through the unsaturated zone and shallow landslide initiation, there is considerable uncertainty in how estimates of unsaturated soil-water retention properties affect slope stability assessment. This source of uncertainty is critical to evaluating the utility of physics-based hydrologic modeling as a tool for landslide early warning. We employ a numerical model of variably saturated groundwater flow parameterized with an ensemble of texture-, laboratory-, and field-based estimates of soil-water retention properties for an extensively monitored landslide-prone site in the San Francisco Bay Area, CA, USA. Simulations of soil-water content, pore-water pressure, and the resultant factor of safety show considerable variability across and within these different parameter estimation techniques. In particular, we demonstrate that with the same permeability structure imposed across all simulations, the variability in soil-water retention properties strongly influences predictions of positive pore-water pressure coincident with widespread shallow landsliding. We also find that the ensemble of soil-water retention properties imposes an order-of-magnitude and nearly two-fold variability in seasonal and event-scale landslide susceptibility, respectively. Despite the reduced factor of safety uncertainty during wet conditions, parameters that control the dry end of the soil-water retention function markedly impact the ability of a hydrologic model to capture soil-water content dynamics observed in the field. These results suggest that variability in soil-water retention properties should be considered for objective physics-based simulation of landslide early warning criteria.

  4. A worldwide analysis of within-canopy variations in leaf structural, chemical and physiological traits across plant functional types.

    PubMed

    Niinemets, Ülo; Keenan, Trevor F; Hallik, Lea

    2015-02-01

    Extensive within-canopy light gradients importantly affect the photosynthetic productivity of leaves in different canopy positions and lead to light-dependent increases in foliage photosynthetic capacity per area (AA). However, the controls on AA variations by changes in underlying traits are poorly known. We constructed an unprecedented worldwide database including 831 within-canopy gradients with standardized light estimates for 304 species belonging to major vascular plant functional types, and analyzed within-canopy variations in 12 key foliage structural, chemical and physiological traits by quantitative separation of the contributions of different traits to photosynthetic acclimation. Although the light-dependent increase in AA is surprisingly similar in different plant functional types, they differ fundamentally in the share of the controls on AA by constituent traits. Species with high rates of canopy development and leaf turnover, exhibiting highly dynamic light environments, actively change AA by nitrogen reallocation among and partitioning within leaves. By contrast, species with slow leaf turnover exhibit a passive AA acclimation response, primarily determined by the acclimation of leaf structure to growth light. This review emphasizes that different combinations of traits are responsible for within-canopy photosynthetic acclimation in different plant functional types, and solves an old enigma of the role of mass- vs area-based traits in vegetation acclimation. © 2014 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2014 New Phytologist Trust.

  5. Disparities in adult awareness of heart attack warning signs and symptoms--14 states, 2005.

    PubMed

    2008-02-22

    In 2005, approximately 920,000 persons in the United States had a myocardial infarction (i.e., heart attack); in 2004, approximately 157,000 heart attacks were fatal. One study indicated that approximately half of cardiac deaths occur within 1 hour of symptom onset, before patients reach a hospital. Timely access to emergency cardiac care, receipt of advanced treatment, and potential for surviving a heart attack all depend on 1) early recognition of warning signs and symptoms of a heart attack by persons who are having a heart attack and bystanders and 2) immediately calling 9-1-1. Healthy People 2010 includes an objective to increase from 46% to 50% the proportion of adults aged > or =20 years who are aware of the early warning signs and symptoms of a heart attack and the importance of accessing rapid emergency care by calling 9-1-1 (objective 12-2). To update estimates of public awareness of heart attack warning signs and symptoms and knowledge of the importance of calling 9-1-1, CDC analyzed 2005 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) data from the 14 states that included questions on signs and symptoms of a heart attack. This report describes the results of that analysis, which indicated that although the awareness of certain individual warning signs was as high as 93% (i.e., for shortness of breath), awareness of all five warning signs was 31%, underscoring the need for public health measures to increase public awareness of heart attack warning signs and symptoms. In addition, disparities in awareness were observed by race/ethnicity, sex, and level of education, suggesting that new public health measures should target populations with the lowest levels of awareness.

  6. The seismic project of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Oppenheimer, D.H.; Bittenbinder, A.N.; Bogaert, B.M.; Buland, R.P.; Dietz, L.D.; Hansen, R.A.; Malone, S.D.; McCreery, C.S.; Sokolowski, T.J.; Whitmore, P.M.; Weaver, C.S.

    2005-01-01

    In 1997, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and the five western States of Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington joined in a partnership called the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to enhance the quality and quantity of seismic data provided to the NOAA tsunami warning centers in Alaska and Hawaii. The NTHMP funded a seismic project that now provides the warning centers with real-time seismic data over dedicated communication links and the Internet from regional seismic networks monitoring earthquakes in the five western states, the U.S. National Seismic Network in Colorado, and from domestic and global seismic stations operated by other agencies. The goal of the project is to reduce the time needed to issue a tsunami warning by providing the warning centers with high-dynamic range, broadband waveforms in near real time. An additional goal is to reduce the likelihood of issuing false tsunami warnings by rapidly providing to the warning centers parametric information on earthquakes that could indicate their tsunamigenic potential, such as hypocenters, magnitudes, moment tensors, and shake distribution maps. New or upgraded field instrumentation was installed over a 5-year period at 53 seismic stations in the five western states. Data from these instruments has been integrated into the seismic network utilizing Earthworm software. This network has significantly reduced the time needed to respond to teleseismic and regional earthquakes. Notably, the West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center responded to the 28 February 2001 Mw 6.8 Nisqually earthquake beneath Olympia, Washington within 2 minutes compared to an average response time of over 10 minutes for the previous 18 years. ?? Springer 2005.

  7. Towards Operational Meteotsunami Early Warning System: the Adriatic Project MESSI

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vilibic, I.; Sepic, J.; Denamiel, C. L.; Mihanovic, H.; Muslim, S.; Tudor, M.; Ivankovic, D.; Jelavic, D.; Kovacevic, V.; Masce, T.; Dadic, V.; Gacic, M.; Horvath, K.; Monserrat, S.; Rabinovich, A.; Telisman-Prtenjak, M.

    2017-12-01

    A number of destructive meteotsunamis - atmospherically-driven long ocean waves in a tsunami frequency band - occurred during the last decade through the world oceans. Owing to significant damage caused by these meteotsunamis, several scientific groups (occasionally in collaboration with public offices) have started developing meteotsunami warning systems. Creation of one such system has been initialized in the late 2015 within the MESSI (Meteotsunamis, destructive long ocean waves in the tsunami frequency band: from observations and simulations towards a warning system) project. Main goal of this project is to build a prototype of a meteotsunami warning system for the eastern Adriatic coast. The system will be based on real-time measurements, operational atmosphere and ocean modeling and real time decision-making process. Envisioned MESSI meteotsunami warning system consists of three modules: (1) synoptic warning module, which will use established correlation between forecasted synoptic fields and high-frequency sea level oscillations to provide qualitative meteotsunami forecasts for up to a week in advance, (2) probabilistic premodeling prediction module, which will use operational WRF-ROMS-ADCIRC modeling system and compare the forecast with an atlas of presimulations to get the probabilistic meteotsunami forecast for up to three days in advance, and (3) real-time module, which is based on real time tracking of properties of air pressure disturbance (amplitude, speed, direction, period, ...) and their real-time comparison with the atlas of meteotsunami simulations. System will be tested on recent meteotsunami events which were recorded in the MESSI area shortly after the operational meteotsunami network installation. Albeit complex, such a multilevel warning system has a potential to be adapted to most meteotsunami hot spots, simply by tuning the system parameters to the available atmospheric and ocean data.

  8. REWSET: A prototype seismic and tsunami early warning system in Rhodes island, Greece

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papadopoulos, Gerasimos; Argyris, Ilias; Aggelou, Savvas; Karastathis, Vasilis

    2014-05-01

    Tsunami warning in near-field conditions is a critical issue in the Mediterranean Sea since the most important tsunami sources are situated within tsunami wave travel times starting from about five minutes. The project NEARTOWARN (2012-2013) supported by the EU-DG ECHO contributed substantially to the development of new tools for the near-field tsunami early warning in the Mediterranean. One of the main achievements is the development of a local warning system in the test-site of Rhodes island (Rhodes Early Warning System for Earthquakes and Tsunamis - REWSET). The system is composed by three main subsystems: (1) a network of eight seismic early warning devices installed in four different localities of the island, one in the civil protection, another in the Fire Brigade and another two in municipality buildings; (2) two radar-type (ultrasonic) tide-gauges installed in the eastern coastal zine of the island which was selected since research on the historical earthquake and tsunami activity has indicated that the most important, near-field tsunami sources are situated offshore to the east of Rhodes; (3) a crisis Geographic Management System (GMS), which is a web-based and GIS-based application incorporating a variety of thematic maps and other information types. The seismic early warning devices activate by strong (magnitude around 6 or more) earthquakes occurring at distances up to about 100 km from Rhodes, thus providing immediate mobilization of the civil protection. The tide-gauges transmit sea level data, while during the crisis the GMS supports decisions to be made by civil protection. In the near future it is planned the REWSET system to be integrated with national and international systems. REWSET is a prototype which certainly could be developed in other coastal areas of the Mediterranean and beyond.

  9. Evaluation of Flood Forecast and Warning in Elbe river basin - Impact of Forecaster's Strategy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Danhelka, Jan; Vlasak, Tomas

    2010-05-01

    Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI) is responsible for flood forecasting and warning in the Czech Republic. To meet that issue CHMI operates hydrological forecasting systems and publish flow forecast in selected profiles. Flood forecast and warning is an output of system that links observation (flow and atmosphere), data processing, weather forecast (especially NWP's QPF), hydrological modeling and modeled outputs evaluation and interpretation by forecaster. Forecast users are interested in final output without separating uncertainties of separate steps of described process. Therefore an evaluation of final operational forecasts was done for profiles within Elbe river basin produced by AquaLog forecasting system during period 2002 to 2008. Effects of uncertainties of observation, data processing and especially meteorological forecasts were not accounted separately. Forecast of flood levels exceedance (peak over the threshold) during forecasting period was the main criterion as flow increase forecast is of the highest importance. Other evaluation criteria included peak flow and volume difference. In addition Nash-Sutcliffe was computed separately for each time step (1 to 48 h) of forecasting period to identify its change with the lead time. Textual flood warnings are issued for administrative regions to initiate flood protection actions in danger of flood. Flood warning hit rate was evaluated at regions level and national level. Evaluation found significant differences of model forecast skill between forecasting profiles, particularly less skill was evaluated at small headwater basins due to domination of QPF uncertainty in these basins. The average hit rate was 0.34 (miss rate = 0.33, false alarm rate = 0.32). However its explored spatial difference is likely to be influenced also by different fit of parameters sets (due to different basin characteristics) and importantly by different impact of human factor. Results suggest that the practice of interactive model operation, experience and forecasting strategy differs between responsible forecasting offices. Warning is based on model outputs interpretation by hydrologists-forecaster. Warning hit rate reached 0.60 for threshold set to lowest flood stage of which 0.11 was underestimation of flood degree (miss 0.22, false alarm 0.28). Critical success index of model forecast was 0.34, while the same criteria for warning reached 0.55. We assume that the increase accounts not only to change of scale from single forecasting point to region for warning, but partly also to forecaster's added value. There is no official warning strategy preferred in the Czech Republic (f.e. tolerance towards higher false alarm rate). Therefore forecaster decision and personal strategy is of great importance. Results show quite successful warning for 1st flood level exceedance, over-warning for 2nd flood level, but under-warning for 3rd (highest) flood level. That suggests general forecaster's preference of medium level warning (2nd flood level is legally determined to be the start of the flood and flood protection activities). In conclusion human forecaster's experience and analysis skill increases flood warning performance notably. However society preference should be specifically addressed in the warning strategy definition to support forecaster's decision making.

  10. Developing effective warning systems: Ongoing research at Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leonard, Graham S.; Johnston, David M.; Paton, Douglas; Christianson, Amy; Becker, Julia; Keys, Harry

    2008-05-01

    PurposeThis paper examines the unique challenges to volcanic risk management associated with having a ski area on an active volcano. Using a series of simulated eruption/lahar events at Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand, as a context, a model of risk management that integrates warning system design and technology, risk perceptions and the human response is explored. Principal resultsDespite increases in the observed audibility and comprehension of the warning message, recall of public education content, and people's awareness of volcanic risk, a persistent minority of the public continued to demonstrate only moderate awareness of the correct actions to take during a warning and failed to respond effectively. A relationship between level of staff competence and correct public response allowed the level of public response to be used to identify residual risk and additional staff training needs. The quality of staff awareness, action and decision-making has emerged as a critical factor, from detailed staff and public interviews and from exercise observations. Staff actions are especially important for mobilising correct public response at Ruapehu ski areas due to the transient nature of the visitor population. Introduction of education material and staff training strategies that included the development of emergency decision-making competencies improved knowledge of correct actions, and increased the proportion of people moving out of harm's way during blind tests. Major conclusionsWarning effectiveness is a function of more than good hazard knowledge and the generation and notification of an early warning message. For warning systems to be effective, these factors must be complemented by accurate knowledge of risk and risk management actions. By combining the Ruapehu findings with those of other warning system studies in New Zealand, and internationally, a practical five-step model for effective early warning systems is discussed. These steps must be based upon sound and regularly updated underpinning science and be tied to formal effectiveness evaluation, which is fed back into system improvements. The model presented emphasises human considerations, the development of which arguably require even more effort than the hardware components of early warning systems.

  11. Use of phytoplankton assemblages to assess the quality of coastal waters of a transitional ecosystem: Río de la Plata estuary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sathicq, María Belén; Gómez, Nora; Bauer, Delia Elena; Donadelli, Jorge

    2017-11-01

    Among the estuarine ecosystems under anthropogenic stress, the Río de la Plata can represent a case study to help identify phytoplanktonic species diagnosing and warning about water quality changes. The freshwater tidal zone on the coast of Argentina is used for several purposes, including recreational and navigational activities and the provision of drinking water. We analyzed the relationship between the abundance of the phytoplanktonic species, changes in water quality (linked to enrichment with nutrients and organic matter) and the land use on the coast of Argentina. A canonical correlation analysis (CCA) allowed us to identify two environmental gradients, one related to anthropogenic activities, where the most influential factors were BOD5, DIN, PO43- and DO, and a second gradient related to turbidity and conductivity. The relative abundances of 24 species were significantly correlated with the deterioration of the water quality. This set of tolerant species is mostly composed of taxa considered C-strategists, and the most represented group was the Chlorococcalean algae. The percentage of this group can provide an early warning indicator of the impairment of the water quality; its abundance exceeded 30% at those sites with a bad water quality (reaching 19000 cell mL-1), and were less than 15% (300 cell mL-1) in sites with a good water quality. The use of a reduced group of species constitutes a potential tool for monitoring, complementing another common indicators such as chlorophyll a or the total density of phytoplankton. Considering that most of these tolerant species are widely distributed it is possible to employ them as a biomonitor in other freshwater zones of temperate estuaries.

  12. Emotional reaction facilitates the brain and behavioral impact of graphic cigarette warning labels in smokers

    PubMed Central

    Wang, An-Li; Lowen, Steven B; Romer, Daniel; Giorno, Mario; Langleben, Daniel D

    2015-01-01

    Background Warning labels on cigarette packages are an important venue for information about the hazards of smoking. The 2009 US Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act mandated replacing the current text-only labels with graphic warning labels. However, labels proposed by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) were challenged in court by the tobacco companies, who argued successfully that the proposed labels needlessly encroached on their right to free speech, in part because they included images of high emotional salience that indiscriminately frightened rather than informed consumers. Methods We used functional MRI to examine the effects of graphic warning labels' emotional salience on smokers' brain activity and cognition. Twenty-four smokers viewed a random sequence of blocks of graphic warning labels that have been rated high or low on an ‘emotional reaction’ scale in previous research. Results We found that labels rated high on emotional reaction were better remembered, associated with reduction in the urge to smoke, and produced greater brain response in the amygdala, hippocampi, inferior frontal gyri and the insulae. Conclusions Recognition memory and craving are, respectively, correlates of effectiveness of addiction related public health communications and interventions, and amygdala activation facilitates the encoding of emotional memories. Thus, our results suggest that emotional reaction to graphic warning labels contributes to their public health impact and may be an integral part of the neural mechanisms underlying their effectiveness. Given the urgency of the debate about the constitutional risks and public health benefits of graphic warning labels, these preliminary findings warrant consideration while longitudinal clinical studies are underway PMID:25564288

  13. Functionally dissimilar neighbors accelerate litter decomposition in two grass species.

    PubMed

    Barbe, Lou; Jung, Vincent; Prinzing, Andreas; Bittebiere, Anne-Kristel; Butenschoen, Olaf; Mony, Cendrine

    2017-05-01

    Plant litter decomposition is a key regulator of nutrient recycling. In a given environment, decomposition of litter from a focal species depends on its litter quality and on the efficiency of local decomposers. Both may be strongly modified by functional traits of neighboring species, but the consequences for decomposition of litter from the focal species remain unknown. We tested whether decomposition of a focal plant's litter is influenced by the functional-trait dissimilarity to the neighboring plants. We cultivated two grass species (Brachypodium pinnatum and Elytrigia repens) in experimental mesocosms with functionally similar and dissimilar neighborhoods, and reciprocally transplanted litter. For both species, litter quality increased in functionally dissimilar neighborhoods, partly as a result of changes in functional traits involved in plant-plant interactions. Furthermore, functional dissimilarity increased overall decomposer efficiency in one species, probably via complementarity effects. Our results suggest a novel mechanism of biodiversity effects on ecosystem functioning in grasslands: interspecific functional diversity within plant communities can enhance intraspecific contributions to litter decomposition. Thus, plant species might better perform in diverse communities by benefiting from higher remineralization rates of their own litter. © 2017 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

  14. Development of a GNSS-Enhanced Tsunami Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bawden, G. W.; Melbourne, T. I.; Bock, Y.; Song, Y. T.; Komjathy, A.

    2015-12-01

    The past decade has witnessed a terrible loss of life and economic disruption caused by large earthquakes and resultant tsunamis impacting coastal communities and infrastructure across the Indo-Pacific region. NASA has funded the early development of a prototype real-time Global Navigation Satellite System (RT-GNSS) based rapid earthquake and tsunami early warning (GNSS-TEW) system that may be used to enhance seismic tsunami early warning systems for large earthquakes. This prototype GNSS-TEW system geodetically estimates fault parameters (earthquake magnitude, location, strike, dip, and slip magnitude/direction on a gridded fault plane both along strike and at depth) and tsunami source parameters (seafloor displacement, tsunami energy scale, and 3D tsunami initials) within minutes after the mainshock based on dynamic numerical inversions/regressions of the real-time measured displacements within a spatially distributed real-time GNSS network(s) spanning the epicentral region. It is also possible to measure fluctuations in the ionosphere's total electron content (TEC) in the RT-GNSS data caused by the pressure wave from the tsunami. This TEC approach can detect if a tsunami has been triggered by an earthquake, track its waves as they propagate through the oceanic basins, and provide upwards of 45 minutes early warning. These combined real-time geodetic approaches will very quickly address a number of important questions in the immediate minutes following a major earthquake: How big was the earthquake and what are its fault parameters? Could the earthquake have produced a tsunami and was a tsunami generated?

  15. The acoustic repertoire and behavioural context of the vocalisations of a nocturnal dasyurid, the eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus)

    PubMed Central

    Dorph, Annalie

    2017-01-01

    Defining an acoustic repertoire is essential to understanding vocal signalling and communicative interactions within a species. Currently, quantitative and statistical definition is lacking for the vocalisations of many dasyurids, an important group of small to medium-sized marsupials from Australasia that includes the eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus), a species of conservation concern. Beyond generating a better understanding of this species' social interactions, determining an acoustic repertoire will further improve detection rates and inference of vocalisations gathered by automated bioacoustic recorders. Hence, this study investigated eastern quoll vocalisations using objective signal processing techniques to quantitatively analyse spectrograms recorded from 15 different individuals. Recordings were collected in conjunction with observations of the behaviours associated with each vocalisation to develop an acoustic-based behavioural repertoire for the species. Analysis of recordings produced a putative classification of five vocalisation types: Bark, Growl, Hiss, Cp-cp, and Chuck. These were most frequently observed during agonistic encounters between conspecifics, most likely as a graded sequence from Hisses occurring in a warning context through to Growls and finally Barks being given prior to, or during, physical confrontations between individuals. Quantitative and statistical methods were used to objectively establish the accuracy of these five putative call types. A multinomial logistic regression indicated a 97.27% correlation with the perceptual classification, demonstrating support for the five different vocalisation types. This putative classification was further supported by hierarchical cluster analysis and silhouette information that determined the optimal number of clusters to be five. Minor disparity between the objective and perceptual classifications was potentially the result of gradation between vocalisations, or subtle differences present within vocalisations not discernible to the human ear. The implication of these different vocalisations and their given context is discussed in relation to the ecology of the species and the potential application of passive acoustic monitoring techniques. PMID:28686679

  16. Development of guidance on the timeliness in response to acute kidney injury warning stage test results for adults in primary care: an appropriateness ratings evaluation

    PubMed Central

    Blakeman, Tom; Griffith, Kathryn; Lasserson, Dan; Lopez, Berenice; Tsang, Jung Y; Campbell, Stephen; Tomson, Charles

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Tackling the harm associated with acute kidney injury (AKI) is a global priority. In England, a national computerised AKI algorithm is being introduced across the National Health Service (NHS) to drive this change. The study sought to maximise its clinical utility and minimise the potential for burden on clinicians and patients in primary care. Design An appropriateness ratings evaluation using the RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method. Setting Clinical scenarios were developed to test the timeliness in (1) communication of AKI warning stage test results from clinical pathology services to primary care, and (2) primary care clinician response to an AKI warning stage test result. Participants A 10-person panel was purposively sampled with representation from clinical biochemistry, acute and emergency medicine and general practice. General practitioners (GPs) represented typical practice in relation to rural and urban practice, out of hours care, GP commissioning and those interested in reducing the impact of medicalisation and ‘overdiagnosis’. Results There was agreement that delivery of AKI warning stage test results through interruptive methods of communication (ie, telephone) from laboratories to primary care was the appropriate next step for patients with an AKI warning stage 3 test result. In the context of acute illness, waiting up to 72 hours to respond to an AKI warning stage test result was deemed an inappropriate action in 62 out of the 65 (94.5%) cases. There was agreement that a clinician response was required within 6 hours, or less, in 39 out of 40 (97.5%) clinical cases relating AKI warning stage test results in the presence of moderate hyperkalaemia. Conclusions The study has informed national guidance to support a timely and calibrated response to AKI warning stage test results for adults in primary care. Further research is needed to support effective implementation, with a view to examine the effect on health outcomes and costs. PMID:27729353

  17. Bodrum-Kos (Turkey-Greece) Mw 6.6 earthquake and tsunami of 20 July 2017: a test for the Mediterranean tsunami warning system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heidarzadeh, Mohammad; Necmioglu, Ocal; Ishibe, Takeo; Yalciner, Ahmet C.

    2017-12-01

    Various Tsunami Service Providers (TSPs) within the Mediterranean Basin supply tsunami warnings including CAT-INGV (Italy), KOERI-RETMC (Turkey), and NOA/HL-NTWC (Greece). The 20 July 2017 Bodrum-Kos (Turkey-Greece) earthquake (Mw 6.6) and tsunami provided an opportunity to assess the response from these TSPs. Although the Bodrum-Kos tsunami was moderate (e.g., runup of 1.9 m) with little damage to properties, it was the first noticeable tsunami in the Mediterranean Basin since the 21 May 2003 western Mediterranean tsunami. Tsunami waveform analysis revealed that the trough-to-crest height was 34.1 cm at the near-field tide gauge station of Bodrum (Turkey). Tsunami period band was 2-30 min with peak periods at 7-13 min. We proposed a source fault model for this tsunami with the length and width of 25 and 15 km and uniform slip of 0.4 m. Tsunami simulations using both nodal planes produced almost same results in terms of agreement between tsunami observations and simulations. Different TSPs provided tsunami warnings at 10 min (CAT-INGV), 19 min (KOERI-RETMC), and 18 min (NOA/HL-NTWC) after the earthquake origin time. Apart from CAT-INGV, whose initial Mw estimation differed 0.2 units with respect to the final value, the response from the other two TSPs came relatively late compared to the desired warning time of 10 min, given the difficulties for timely and accurate calculation of earthquake magnitude and tsunami impact assessment. It is argued that even if a warning time of 10 min was achieved, it might not have been sufficient for addressing near-field tsunami hazards. Despite considerable progress and achievements made within the upstream components of NEAMTWS (North East Atlantic, Mediterranean and Connected seas Tsunami Warning System), the experience from this moderate tsunami may highlight the need for improving operational capabilities of TSPs, but more importantly for effectively integrating civil protection authorities into NEAMTWS and strengthening tsunami education programs.

  18. Unrecognized coral species diversity masks differences in functional ecology

    PubMed Central

    Boulay, Jennifer N.; Hellberg, Michael E.; Cortés, Jorge; Baums, Iliana B.

    2014-01-01

    Porites corals are foundation species on Pacific reefs but a confused taxonomy hinders understanding of their ecosystem function and responses to climate change. Here, we show that what has been considered a single species in the eastern tropical Pacific, Porites lobata, includes a morphologically similar yet ecologically distinct species, Porites evermanni. While P. lobata reproduces mainly sexually, P. evermanni dominates in areas where triggerfish prey on bioeroding mussels living within the coral skeleton, thereby generating asexual coral fragments. These fragments proliferate in marginal habitat not colonized by P. lobata. The two Porites species also show a differential bleaching response despite hosting the same dominant symbiont subclade. Thus, hidden diversity within these reef-builders has until now obscured differences in trophic interactions, reproductive dynamics and bleaching susceptibility, indicative of differential responses when confronted with future climate change. PMID:24335977

  19. Unrecognized coral species diversity masks differences in functional ecology.

    PubMed

    Boulay, Jennifer N; Hellberg, Michael E; Cortés, Jorge; Baums, Iliana B

    2014-02-07

    Porites corals are foundation species on Pacific reefs but a confused taxonomy hinders understanding of their ecosystem function and responses to climate change. Here, we show that what has been considered a single species in the eastern tropical Pacific, Porites lobata, includes a morphologically similar yet ecologically distinct species, Porites evermanni. While P. lobata reproduces mainly sexually, P. evermanni dominates in areas where triggerfish prey on bioeroding mussels living within the coral skeleton, thereby generating asexual coral fragments. These fragments proliferate in marginal habitat not colonized by P. lobata. The two Porites species also show a differential bleaching response despite hosting the same dominant symbiont subclade. Thus, hidden diversity within these reef-builders has until now obscured differences in trophic interactions, reproductive dynamics and bleaching susceptibility, indicative of differential responses when confronted with future climate change.

  20. DISTANT EARLY WARNING SYSTEM for Tsunamis - A wide-area and multi-hazard approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hammitzsch, Martin; Lendholt, Matthias; Wächter, Joachim

    2010-05-01

    The DEWS (Distant Early Warning System) [1] project, funded under the 6th Framework Programme of the European Union, has the objective to create a new generation of interoperable early warning systems based on an open sensor platform. This platform integrates OGC [2] SWE [3] compliant sensor systems for the rapid detection of hazardous events, like earthquakes, sea level anomalies, ocean floor occurrences, and ground displacements in the case of tsunami early warning. Based on the upstream information flow DEWS focuses on the improvement of downstream capacities of warning centres especially by improving information logistics for effective and targeted warning message aggregation for a multilingual environment. Multiple telecommunication channels will be used for the dissemination of warning messages. Wherever possible, existing standards have been integrated. The Command and Control User Interface (CCUI), a rich client application based on Eclipse RCP (Rich Client Platform) [4] and the open source GIS uDig [5], integrates various OGC services. Using WMS (Web Map Service) [6] and WFS (Web Feature Service) [7] spatial data are utilized to depict the situation picture and to integrate a simulation system via WPS (Web Processing Service) [8] to identify affected areas. Warning messages are compiled and transmitted in the OASIS [9] CAP (Common Alerting Protocol) [10] standard together with addressing information defined via EDXL-DE (Emergency Data Exchange Language - Distribution Element) [11]. Internal interfaces are realized with SOAP [12] web services. Based on results of GITEWS [13] - in particular the GITEWS Tsunami Service Bus [14] - the DEWS approach provides an implementation for tsunami early warning systems but other geological paradigms are going to follow, e.g. volcanic eruptions or landslides. Therefore in future also multi-hazard functionality is conceivable. The specific software architecture of DEWS makes it possible to dock varying sensors to the system and to extend the CCUI with hazard specific functionality. The presentation covers the DEWS project, the system architecture and the CCUI in conjunction with details of information logistics. The DEWS Wide Area Centre connecting national centres to allow the international communication and warning exchange is presented also. REFERENCES: [1] DEWS, www.dews-online.org [2] OGC, www.opengeospatial.org [3] SWE, www.opengeospatial.org/projects/groups/sensorweb [4] Eclipse RCP, www.eclipse.org/home/categories/rcp.php [5] uDig, udig.refractions.net [6] WMS, www.opengeospatial.org/standards/wms [7] WFS, www.opengeospatial.org/standards/wfs [8] WPS, www.opengeospatial.org/standards/wps [9] OASIS, www.oasis-open.org [10] CAP, www.oasis-open.org/specs/#capv1.1 [11] EDXL-DE, www.oasis-open.org/specs/#edxlde-v1.0 [12] SOAP, www.w3.org/TR/soap [13] GITEWS (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) is a project of the German Federal Government to aid the recon¬struction of the tsunami-prone Indian Ocean region, www.gitews.org [14] The Tsunami Service Bus is the GITEWS sensor system integration platform offering standardised services for the detection and monitoring of tsunamis

  1. DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Morton, J.F.

    A description is given of Acacia auriculiformis, together with a warning against its use for ornamental landscaping in Florida (a hurricane area). The tree grows very fast, reaching 30-55 ft in 8 years, lacks wind resistance, produces much persistent litter, seeds itself freely and is now a common weed species in Florida. The wood is of value for handicrafts. 3 references.

  2. Individual diet variation in a marine fish assemblage: Optimal Foraging Theory, Niche Variation Hypothesis and functional identity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cachera, M.; Ernande, B.; Villanueva, M. C.; Lefebvre, S.

    2017-02-01

    Individual diet variation (i.e. diet variation among individuals) impacts intra- and inter-specific interactions. Investigating its sources and relationship with species trophic niche organization is important for understanding community structure and dynamics. Individual diet variation may increase with intra-specific phenotypic (or "individual state") variation and habitat variability, according to Optimal Foraging Theory (OFT), and with species trophic niche width, according to the Niche Variation Hypothesis (NVH). OFT proposes "proximate sources" of individual diet variation such as variations in habitat or size whereas NVH relies on "ultimate sources" related to the competitive balance between intra- and inter-specific competitions. The latter implies as a corollary that species trophic niche overlap, taken as inter-specific competition measure, decreases as species niche width and individual niche variation increase. We tested the complementary predictions of OFT and NVH in a marine fish assemblage using stomach content data and associated trophic niche metrics. The NVH predictions were tested between species of the assemblage and decomposed into a between- and a within-functional group component to assess the potential influence of species' ecological function. For most species, individual diet variation and niche overlap were consistently larger than expected. Individual diet variation increased with intra-specific variability in individual state and habitat, as expected from OFT. It also increased with species niche width but in compliance with the null expectation, thus not supporting the NVH. In contrast, species niche overlap increased significantly less than null expectation with both species niche width and individual diet variation, supporting NVH corollary. The between- and within-functional group components of the NVH relationships were consistent with those between species at the assemblage level. Changing the number of prey categories used to describe diet (from 16 to 41) did not change the results qualitatively. These results suggest that, besides proximate sources, intra-specific competition favors higher individual diet variation than expected while inter-specific competition limits the increase of individual diet variation and of species niche overlap with species niche expansion. This reveals partial trophic resource partitioning between species. Various niche metrics used in combination allow inferring competition effects on trophic niches' organization within communities.

  3. Early warning indicators for river nutrient and sediment loads in tropical seagrass beds: a benchmark from a near-pristine archipelago in Indonesia.

    PubMed

    van Katwijk, M M; van der Welle, M E W; Lucassen, E C H E T; Vonk, J A; Christianen, M J A; Kiswara, W; al Hakim, I Inayat; Arifin, A; Bouma, T J; Roelofs, J G M; Lamers, L P M

    2011-07-01

    In remote, tropical areas human influences increase, potentially threatening pristine seagrass systems. We aim (i) to provide a bench-mark for a near-pristine seagrass system in an archipelago in East Kalimantan, by quantifying a large spectrum of abiotic and biotic properties in seagrass meadows and (ii) to identify early warning indicators for river sediment and nutrient loading, by comparing the seagrass meadow properties over a gradient with varying river influence. Abiotic properties of water column, pore water and sediment were less suitable indicators for increased sediment and nutrient loading than seagrass properties. Seagrass meadows strongly responded to higher sediment and nutrient loads and proximity to the coast by decreasing seagrass cover, standing stock, number of seagrass species, changing species composition and shifts in tissue contents. Our study confirms that nutrient loads are more important than water nutrient concentrations. We identify seagrass system variables that are suitable indicators for sediment and nutrient loading, also in rapid survey scenarios with once-only measurements. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. The alewife

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Smith, Stanford H.

    1968-01-01

    When the first alewife, Alosa pseudoharengus, was discovered in Lake Michigan near South Manitou Island on May 5, 1949, few people would have guessed that it would become the best known fish of the lake in less than two decades. Now it competes only with the coho salmon in its claim to such fame. When the third specimen was officially recorded from Milwaukee, Wisconsin, in March 1952, however, a newspaper story carried a somber warning from a knowledgeable yet anonymous official of the Michigan Department of Conservation that the alewife might raise havoc with the native species. This warning was fully justified by fact in the years to follow. An upset of the entire fishery ecology of Lake Michigan was already well under way in 1949 when the sea lamprey was consuming the last vestiges of the lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) and burbot (Lota lota)- the only abundant and widely distributed predators of the lake. Absence of large predators left the way wide open for a small and prolific species such as the alewife. Under this condition the alewife increased with almost unbelievable swiftness.

  5. Effect of hypoxia and anoxia on invertebrate behaviour: ecological perspectives from species to community level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Riedel, B.; Pados, T.; Pretterebner, K.; Schiemer, L.; Steckbauer, A.; Haselmair, A.; Zuschin, M.; Stachowitsch, M.

    2014-03-01

    Coastal hypoxia and anoxia have become a global key stressor to marine ecosystems, with almost 500 dead zones recorded worldwide. By triggering cascading effects from the individual organism to the community- and ecosystem level, oxygen depletions threaten marine biodiversity and can alter ecosystem structure and function. By integrating both physiological function and ecological processes, animal behaviour is ideal for assessing the stress state of benthic macrofauna to low dissolved oxygen. The initial response of organisms can serve as an early warning signal, while the successive behavioural reactions of key species indicate hypoxia levels and help assess community degradation. Here we document the behavioural responses of a representative spectrum of benthic macrofauna in the natural setting in the Northern Adriatic Sea (Mediterranean). We experimentally induced small-scale anoxia with a benthic chamber in 24 m depth to overcome the difficulties in predicting the onset of hypoxia, which often hinders full documentation in the field. The behavioural reactions were documented with a time-lapse camera. Oxygen depletion elicited significant and repeatable changes in general (visibility, locomotion, body movement and posture, location) and species-specific reactions in virtually all organisms (302 individuals from 32 species and 2 species groups). Most atypical (stress) behaviours were associated with specific oxygen thresholds: arm-tipping in the ophiuroid Ophiothrix quinquemaculata, for example, with the onset of mild hypoxia (< 2 mL O2 L-1), the emergence of polychaetes on the sediment surface with moderate hypoxia (< 1 mL O2 L-1), the emergence of the infaunal sea urchin Schizaster canaliferus on the sediment with severe hypoxia (< 0.5 mL O2 L-1) and heavy body rotations in sea anemones with anoxia. Other species changed their activity patterns, for example the circadian rhythm in the hermit crab Paguristes eremita or the bioherm-associated crab Pisidia longimana. Intra- and interspecific reactions were weakened or changed: decapods ceased defensive and territorial behaviour, and predator-prey interactions and relationships shifted. This nuanced scale of resolution is a useful tool to interpret present benthic community status (behaviour) and past mortalities (community composition, e.g. survival of tolerant species). This information on the sensitivity (onset of stress response), tolerance (mortality, survival), and characteristics (i.e. life habit, functional role) of key species also helps predict potential future changes in benthic structure and ecosystem functioning. This integrated approach can transport complex ecological processes to the public and decision-makers and help define specific monitoring, assessment and conservation plans.

  6. Effect of hypoxia and anoxia on invertebrate behaviour: ecological perspectives from species to community level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Riedel, B.; Pados, T.; Pretterebner, K.; Schiemer, L.; Steckbauer, A.; Haselmair, A.; Zuschin, M.; Stachowitsch, M.

    2013-08-01

    Coastal hypoxia and anoxia have become a global key stressor to marine ecosystems, with almost 500 dead zones recorded wordwide. By triggering cascading effects from the individual organism to the community and ecosystem-level, oxygen depletions threat marine biodiversity and can alter ecosystem structure and function. By integrating both physiological function and ecological processes, animal behaviour is ideal for assessing the stress state of benthic macrofauna to low dissolved oxygen. The initial response of organisms can serve as an early-warning signal, while the successive behavioural reactions of key species indicate hypoxia levels and help assess community degradation. Here we document the behavioural responses of a representative spectrum of benthic macrofauna in the natural setting in the Northern Adriatic Sea, Mediterranean. We experimentally induced small-scale anoxia with a benthic chamber in 24 m depth to overcome the difficulties in predicting the onset of hypoxia, which often hinders full documentation in the field. The behavioural reactions were documented with a time-lapse camera. Oxygen depletion elicited significant and repeatable changes in general (visibility, locomotion, body movement and posture, location) and species-specific reactions in virtually all organisms (302 individuals from 32 species and 2 species groups). Most atypical (stress) behaviours were associated with specific oxygen thresholds: arm-tipping in the ophiuroid Ophiothrix quinquemaculata, for example, with the onset of mild hypoxia (< 2 mL O2 L-1), the emergence of polychates on the sediment surface with moderate hypoxia (< 1 mL O2 L-1), the emergence of the infaunal sea urchin Schizaster canaliferus on the sediment with severe hypoxia (< 0.5 mL O2 L-1) and heavy body rotations in sea anemones with anoxia. Other species changed their activity patterns, i.e. circadian rhythm in the hermit crab Paguristes eremita or the bioherm-associated crab Pisidia longimana. Intra- and interspecific reactions were weakened or changed: decapods ceased defensive and territorial behaviour, and predator-prey interactions and relationships shifted. This nuanced scale of resolution is a useful tool to interpret present benthic community status (behaviour) and past mortalities (community composition, e.g. survival of tolerant species). This information on the sensitivity (onset of stress response), tolerance (mortality, survival), and characteristics (i.e. life habit, functional role) of key species also helps predict potential future changes in benthic structure and ecosystem functioning. This integrated approach can transport complex ecological processes to the public and decision-makers and help define specific monitoring, assessment and conservation plans.

  7. The forecasting research of early warning systems for atmospheric pollutants: A case in Yangtze River Delta region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, Yiliao; Qin, Shanshan; Qu, Jiansheng; Liu, Feng

    2015-10-01

    The issue of air quality regarding PM pollution levels in China is a focus of public attention. To address that issue, to date, a series of studies is in progress, including PM monitoring programs, PM source apportionment, and the enactment of new ambient air quality index standards. However, related research concerning computer modeling for PM future trends estimation is rare, despite its significance to forecasting and early warning systems. Thereby, a study regarding deterministic and interval forecasts of PM is performed. In this study, data on hourly and 12 h-averaged air pollutants are applied to forecast PM concentrations within the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region of China. The characteristics of PM emissions have been primarily examined and analyzed using different distribution functions. To improve the distribution fitting that is crucial for estimating PM levels, an artificial intelligence algorithm is incorporated to select the optimal parameters. Following that step, an ANF model is used to conduct deterministic forecasts of PM. With the identified distributions and deterministic forecasts, different levels of PM intervals are estimated. The results indicate that the lognormal or gamma distributions are highly representative of the recorded PM data with a goodness-of-fit R2 of approximately 0.998. Furthermore, the results of the evaluation metrics (MSE, MAPE and CP, AW) also show high accuracy within the deterministic and interval forecasts of PM, indicating that this method enables the informative and effective quantification of future PM trends.

  8. Ontogenetic functional diversity: size structure of a keystone predator drives functioning of a complex ecosystem.

    PubMed

    Rudolf, Volker H W; Rasmussen, Nick L

    2013-05-01

    A central challenge in community ecology is to understand the connection between biodiversity and the functioning of ecosystems. While traditional approaches have largely focused on species-level diversity, increasing evidence indicates that there exists substantial ecological diversity among individuals within species. By far, the largest source of this intraspecific diversity stems from variation among individuals in ontogenetic stage and size. Although such ontogenetic shifts are ubiquitous in natural communities, whether and how they scale up to influence the structure and functioning of complex ecosystems is largely unknown. Here we take an experimental approach to examine the consequences of ontogenetic niche shifts for the structure of communities and ecosystem processes. In particular we experimentally manipulated the stage structure in a keystone predator, larvae of the dragonfly Anax junius, in complex experimental pond communities to test whether changes in the population stage or size structure of a keystone species scale up to alter community structure and ecosystem processes, and how functional differences scale with relative differences in size among stages. We found that the functional role of A. junius was stage-specific. Altering what stages were present in a pond led to concurrent changes in community structure, primary producer biomass (periphyton and phytoplankton), and ultimately altered ecosystem processes (respiration and net primary productivity), indicating a strong, but stage-specific, trophic cascade. Interestingly, the stage-specific effects did not simply scale with size or biomass of the predator, but instead indicated clear ontogenetic niche shifts in ecological interactions. Thus, functional differences among stages within a keystone species scaled up to alter the functioning of entire ecosystems. Therefore, our results indicate that the classical approach of assuming an average functional role of a species can be misleading because functional roles are dynamic and will change with shifts in the stage structure of the species. In general this emphasizes the importance of accounting for functional diversity below the species level to predict how natural and anthropogenic changes alter the functioning of natural ecosystems.

  9. Predicting primate local extinctions within "real-world" forest fragments: a pan-neotropical analysis.

    PubMed

    Benchimol, Maíra; Peres, Carlos A

    2014-03-01

    Understanding the main drivers of species extinction in human-modified landscapes has gained paramount importance in proposing sound conservation strategies. Primates play a crucial role in maintaining the integrity of forest ecosystem functions and represent the best studied order of tropical terrestrial vertebrates, yet primate species diverge widely in their responses to forest habitat disturbance and fragmentation. Here, we present a robust quantitative review on the synergistic effects of habitat fragmentation on Neotropical forest primates to pinpoint the drivers of species extinction across a wide range of forest patches from Mexico to Argentina. Presence-absence data on 19 primate functional groups were compiled from 705 forest patches and 55 adjacent continuous forest sites, which were nested within 61 landscapes investigated by 96 studies. Forest patches were defined in terms of their size, surrounding matrix and level of hunting pressure on primates, and each functional group was classified according to seven life-history traits. Generalized linear mixed models showed that patch size, forest cover, level of hunting pressure, home range size and trophic status were the main predictors of species persistence within forest isolates for all functional groups pooled together. However, patterns of local extinction varied greatly across taxa, with Alouatta and Callicebus moloch showing the highest occupancy rates even within tiny forest patches, whereas Brachyteles and Leontopithecus occupied fewer than 50% of sites, even in relatively large forest tracts. Our results uncover the main predictors of platyrrhine primate species extinction, highlighting the importance of considering the history of anthropogenic disturbances, the structure of landscapes, and species life-history attributes in predicting primate persistence in Neotropical forest patches. We suggest that large-scale conservation planning of fragmented forest landscapes should prioritize and set-aside large, well-connected and strictly protected forest reserves to maximize species persistence across the entire spectrum of primate life-history. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. Intraspecific functional diversity of common species enhances community stability

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wood, Connor M.; McKinney, Shawn T.; Loftin, Cynthia S.

    2017-01-01

    Common species are fundamental to the structure and function of their communities and may enhance community stability through intraspecific functional diversity (iFD). We measured among-habitat and within-habitat iFD (i.e., among- and within-plant community types) of two common small mammal species using stable isotopes and functional trait dendrograms, determined whether iFD was related to short-term population stability and small mammal community stability, and tested whether spatially explicit trait filters helped explain observed patterns of iFD. Southern red-backed voles (Myodes gapperi) had greater iFD than deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus), both among habitats, and within the plant community in which they were most abundant (their “primary habitat”). Peromyscus maniculatus populations across habitats differed significantly between years and declined 78% in deciduous forests, their primary habitat, as did the overall deciduous forest small mammal community. Myodes gapperi populations were stable across habitats and within coniferous forest, their primary habitat, as was the coniferous forest small mammal community. Generalized linear models representing internal trait filters (e.g., competition), which increase within-habitat type iFD, best explained variation in M. gapperidiet, while models representing internal filters and external filters (e.g., climate), which suppress within-habitat iFD, best explained P. maniculatus diet. This supports the finding that M. gapperi had higher iFD than P. maniculatus and is consistent with the theory that internal trait filters are associated with higher iFD than external filters. Common species with high iFD can impart a stabilizing influence on their communities, information that can be important for conserving biodiversity under environmental change.

  11. Tsunami prevention and mitigation necessities and options derived from tsunami risk assessment in Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Post, J.; Zosseder, K.; Wegscheider, S.; Steinmetz, T.; Mück, M.; Strunz, G.; Riedlinger, T.; Anwar, H. Z.; Birkmann, J.; Gebert, N.

    2009-04-01

    Risk and vulnerability assessment is an important component of an effective End-to-End Tsunami Early Warning System and therefore contributes significantly to disaster risk reduction. Risk assessment is a key strategy to implement and design adequate disaster prevention and mitigation measures. The knowledge about expected tsunami hazard impacts, exposed elements, their susceptibility, coping and adaptation mechanisms is a precondition for the development of people-centred warning structures, local specific response and recovery policy planning. The developed risk assessment and its components reflect the disaster management cycle (disaster time line) and cover the early warning as well as the emergency response phase. Consequently the components hazard assessment, exposure (e.g. how many people/ critical facilities are affected?), susceptibility (e.g. are the people able to receive a tsunami warning?), coping capacity (are the people able to evacuate in time?) and recovery (are the people able to restore their livelihoods?) are addressed and quantified. Thereby the risk assessment encompasses three steps: (i) identifying the nature, location, intensity and probability of potential tsunami threats (hazard assessment); (ii) determining the existence and degree of exposure and susceptibility to those threats; and (iii) identifying the coping capacities and resources available to address or manage these threats. The paper presents results of the research work, which is conducted in the framework of the GITEWS project and the Joint Indonesian-German Working Group on Risk Modelling and Vulnerability Assessment. The assessment methodology applied follows a people-centred approach to deliver relevant risk and vulnerability information for the purposes of early warning and disaster management. The analyses are considering the entire coastal areas of Sumatra, Java and Bali facing the Sunda trench. Selected results and products like risk maps, guidelines, decision support information and other GIS products will be presented. The focus of the products is on the one hand to provide relevant risk assessment products as decision support to issue a tsunami warning within the early warning stage. On the other hand the maps and GIS products shall provide relevant information to enable local decision makers to act adequately concerning their local risks. It is shown that effective prevention and mitigation measures can be designed based on risk assessment results and information especially when used pro-active and beforehand a disaster strikes. The conducted hazard assessment provides the probability of an area to be affected by a tsunami threat divided into two ranked impact zones. The two divided impact zones directly relate to tsunami warning levels issued by the Early Warning Center and consequently enable the local decision maker to base their planning (e.g. evacuation) accordingly. Within the tsunami hazard assessment several hundred pre-computed tsunami scenarios are analysed. This is combined with statistical analysis of historical event data. Probabilities of tsunami occurrence considering probabilities of different earthquake magnitudes, occurrences of specific wave heights at coast and spatial inundation probability are computed. Hazard assessment is then combined with a comprehensive vulnerability assessment. Here deficits in e.g. people's ability to receive and understand a tsunami warning and deficits in their ability to respond adequately (evacuate on time) are quantified and are visualized for the respective coastal areas. Hereby socio-economic properties (determining peoples ability to understand a warning and to react) are combined with environmental conditions (land cover, slope, population density) to calculate the time needed to evacuate (reach a tsunami safe area derived through the hazard assessment). This is implemented using a newly developed GIS cost-distance weighting approach. For example, the amount of people affected in a certain area is dependent on expected tsunami intensity, inundated area, estimated tsunami arrival time and available time for evacuation. Referring to the Aceh 2004 Tsunami, an estimated amount of people affected (dead/injured) of 21000 for Kabubaten Aceh Jaya and 85000 for Kab. Banda Aceh is in a comparable range with reported values of 19661 and 78417 (JICA 2005) respectively. Hence the established methodology provides reliable estimates of people affected and people's ability to reach a safe area. Based on the spatial explicit detection of e.g. high tsunami risk areas (and the assessed root causes therefore), specific disaster risk reduction and early warning strategies can be designed. For example additional installation of technical warning dissemination device, community based preparedness and awareness programmes (education), structural and non-structural measures (e.g. land use conversion, coastal engineering), effective evacuation, contingency and household recovery aid planning can be employed and/or optimized within high tsunami risk areas as a first priority. In the context of early warning, spatially distributed information like degree of expected hazard impact, exposure of critical facilities (e.g. hospitals, schools), potential people dead/injured depending on available response times, location of safe and shelter areas can be disseminated and used for decision making. Keywords: Tsunami risk, hazard and vulnerability assessment, early warning, tsunami mitigation and prevention, Indonesia

  12. Comparison of patterns and knowledge of benefits and warnings of fish consumption between parents and children.

    PubMed

    Herdt-Losavio, Michele L; Lin, Shao; Chen, Ming; Luo, Ming; Tang, Jianzhong; Hwang, Syni-An

    2014-07-01

    We examined generational differences in fish consumption and knowledge of benefits/warnings of fish consumption among parents and children. This cross-sectional study gathered self-administered questionnaire data, including demographics, fish consumption behavior (including specific fish species) and knowledge of fish consumption warnings and benefits. Fish were later grouped into four categories by potential mercury contamination. Descriptive statistics were conducted for all variables comparing all adults and children. Benefit/risk knowledge variables were also descriptively analyzed among parent-child pairs only. Multivariate Poisson regression was conducted on pairs to assess risk factors for children eating higher mercury fish. 421 adults and 207 children (171 adult-child pairs) participated (family response rate: 71%). Slightly more adults (97.6%) ate fish in the last year than children (92.3%); however, there was no difference between consumption of fish by category of potential mercury contamination. Both adults (44%) and children (45%) ate high-mercury fish. In 71% of parent-child pairs, both the parent and the child knew of benefits of consuming fish; only 31% knew of warnings. Parental consumption of high or moderately-high-mercury fish was related to the child's consumption of fish in the same category. Parents and children need additional education to make better choices about fish consumption. Education should target the family and include specifics about benefits and risks.

  13. An in-situ infection detection sensor coating for urinary catheters.

    PubMed

    Milo, Scarlet; Thet, Naing Tun; Liu, Dan; Nzakizwanayo, Jonathan; Jones, Brian V; Jenkins, A Toby A

    2016-07-15

    We describe a novel infection-responsive coating for urinary catheters that provides a clear visual early warning of Proteus mirabilis infection and subsequent blockage. The crystalline biofilms of P. mirabilis can cause serious complications for patients undergoing long-term bladder catheterisation. Healthy urine is around pH 6, bacterial urease increases urine pH leading to the precipitation of calcium and magnesium deposits from the urine, resulting in dense crystalline biofilms on the catheter surface that blocks urine flow. The coating is a dual layered system in which the lower poly(vinyl alcohol) layer contains the self-quenching dye carboxyfluorescein. This is capped by an upper layer of the pH responsive polymer poly(methyl methacrylate-co-methacrylic acid) (Eudragit S100®). Elevation of urinary pH (>pH 7) dissolves the Eudragit layer, releasing the dye to provide a clear visual warning of impending blockage. Evaluation of prototype coatings using a clinically relevant in vitro bladder model system demonstrated that coatings provide up to 12h advanced warning of blockage, and are stable both in the absence of infection, and in the presence of species that do not cause catheter blockage. At the present time, there are no effective methods to control these infections or provide warning of impending catheter blockage. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Within compound, looking southeast Power Plant (Building 5761) to left, ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    Within compound, looking southeast Power Plant (Building 5761) to left, Satellite Communications Terminal (Building 5771), center - Beale Air Force Base, Perimeter Acquisition Vehicle Entry Phased-Array Warning System, End of Spencer Paul Road, north of Warren Shingle Road (14th Street), Marysville, Yuba County, CA

  15. Validation of a Pediatric Early Warning Score in Hospitalized Pediatric Oncology and Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant Patients.

    PubMed

    Agulnik, Asya; Forbes, Peter W; Stenquist, Nicole; Rodriguez-Galindo, Carlos; Kleinman, Monica

    2016-04-01

    To evaluate the correlation of a Pediatric Early Warning Score with unplanned transfer to the PICU in hospitalized oncology and hematopoietic stem cell transplant patients. We performed a retrospective matched case-control study, comparing the highest documented Pediatric Early Warning Score within 24 hours prior to unplanned PICU transfers in hospitalized pediatric oncology and hematopoietic stem cell transplant patients between September 2011 and December 2013. Controls were patients who remained on the inpatient unit and were matched 2:1 using age, condition (oncology vs hematopoietic stem cell transplant), and length of hospital stay. Pediatric Early Warning Scores were documented by nursing staff at least every 4 hours as part of routine care. Need for transfer was determined by a PICU physician called to evaluate the patient. A large tertiary/quaternary free-standing academic children's hospital. One hundred ten hospitalized pediatric oncology patients (42 oncology, 68 hematopoietic stem cell transplant) requiring unplanned PICU transfer and 220 matched controls. None. Using the highest score in the 24 hours prior to transfer for cases and a matched time period for controls, the Pediatric Early Warning Score was highly correlated with the need for PICU transfer overall (area under the receiver operating characteristic = 0.96), and in the oncology and hematopoietic stem cell transplant groups individually (area under the receiver operating characteristic = 0.95 and 0.96, respectively). The difference in Pediatric Early Warning Score results between the cases and controls was noted as early as 24 hours prior to PICU admission. Seventeen patients died (15.4%). Patients with higher Pediatric Early Warning Scores prior to transfer had increased PICU mortality (p = 0.028) and length of stay (p = 0.004). We demonstrate that our institution's Pediatric Early Warning Score is highly correlated with the need for unplanned PICU transfer in hospitalized oncology and hematopoietic stem cell transplant patients. Furthermore, we found an association between higher scores and PICU mortality. This is the first validation of a Pediatric Early Warning Score specific to the pediatric oncology and hematopoietic stem cell transplant populations, and supports the use of Pediatric Early Warning Scores as a method of early identification of clinical deterioration in this high-risk population.

  16. Demands on Intranets — Viable System Model as a Foundation for Intranet Design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amcoff Nyström, Christina

    2006-06-01

    The number of Intranets increases in organizations but their potential to support viability is not fully exploited. The cybernetic model, the Viable System Model, has not been connected to the Intranet concept before. Characteristics of the VSM, such as highlighting the importance of production, monitoring of production units through Early Warning Systems, autonomy and empowerment, are used as patterns and a base for de-signing essential parts and/or functions of an Intranet. The result is a brief description of functions vital to the operational parts of organizations. Examples are Early Warning Systems, control systems, "gate-keepers," amplifying and damping information to and from the organization and "agents" supporting search abilities on an Intranet.

  17. Leaf traits within communities: context may affect the mapping of traits to function.

    PubMed

    Funk, Jennifer L; Cornwell, William K

    2013-09-01

    The leaf economics spectrum (LES) has revolutionized the way many ecologists think about quantifying plant ecological trade-offs. In particular, the LES has connected a clear functional trade-off (long-lived leaves with slow carbon capture vs. short-lived leaves with fast carbon capture) to a handful of easily measured leaf traits. Building on this work, community ecologists are now able to quickly assess species carbon-capture strategies, which may have implications for community-level patterns such as competition or succession. However, there are a number of steps in this logic that require careful examination, and a potential danger arises when interpreting leaf-trait variation among species within communities where trait relationships are weak. Using data from 22 diverse communities, we show that relationships among three common functional traits (photosynthetic rate, leaf nitrogen concentration per mass, leaf mass per area) are weak in communities with low variation in leaf life span (LLS), especially communities dominated by herbaceous or deciduous woody species. However, globally there are few LLS data sets for communities dominated by herbaceous or deciduous species, and more data are needed to confirm this pattern. The context-dependent nature of trait relationships at the community level suggests that leaf-trait variation within communities, especially those dominated by herbaceous and deciduous woody species, should be interpreted with caution.

  18. Role of remote sensing in desert locust early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cressman, Keith

    2013-01-01

    Desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria, Forskål) plagues have historically had devastating consequences on food security in Africa and Asia. The current strategy to reduce the frequency of plagues and manage desert locust infestations is early warning and preventive control. To achieve this, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations operates one of the oldest, largest, and best-known migratory pest monitoring systems in the world. Within this system, remote sensing plays an important role in detecting rainfall and green vegetation. Despite recent technological advances in data management and analysis, communications, and remote sensing, monitoring desert locusts and preventing plagues in the years ahead will continue to be a challenge from a geopolitical and financial standpoint for affected countries and the international donor community. We present an overview of the use of remote sensing in desert locust early warning.

  19. Climate-based models for West Nile Culex mosquito vectors in the Northeastern US

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gong, Hongfei; Degaetano, Arthur T.; Harrington, Laura C.

    2011-05-01

    Climate-based models simulating Culex mosquito population abundance in the Northeastern US were developed. Two West Nile vector species, Culex pipiens and Culex restuans, were included in model simulations. The model was optimized by a parameter-space search within biological bounds. Mosquito population dynamics were driven by major environmental factors including temperature, rainfall, evaporation rate and photoperiod. The results show a strong correlation between the timing of early population increases (as early warning of West Nile virus risk) and decreases in late summer. Simulated abundance was highly correlated with actual mosquito capture in New Jersey light traps and validated with field data. This climate-based model simulates the population dynamics of both the adult and immature mosquito life stage of Culex arbovirus vectors in the Northeastern US. It is expected to have direct and practical application for mosquito control and West Nile prevention programs.

  20. Parasitism and the Biodiversity-Functioning Relationship.

    PubMed

    Frainer, André; McKie, Brendan G; Amundsen, Per-Arne; Knudsen, Rune; Lafferty, Kevin D

    2018-04-01

    Species interactions can influence ecosystem functioning by enhancing or suppressing the activities of species that drive ecosystem processes, or by causing changes in biodiversity. However, one important class of species interactions - parasitism - has been little considered in biodiversity and ecosystem functioning (BD-EF) research. Parasites might increase or decrease ecosystem processes by reducing host abundance. Parasites could also increase trait diversity by suppressing dominant species or by increasing within-host trait diversity. These different mechanisms by which parasites might affect ecosystem function pose challenges in predicting their net effects. Nonetheless, given the ubiquity of parasites, we propose that parasite-host interactions should be incorporated into the BD-EF framework. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Irrational exuberance and neural crash warning signals during endogenous experimental market bubbles

    PubMed Central

    Smith, Alec; Lohrenz, Terry; King, Justin; Montague, P. Read; Camerer, Colin F.

    2014-01-01

    Groups of humans routinely misassign value to complex future events, especially in settings involving the exchange of resources. If properly structured, experimental markets can act as excellent probes of human group-level valuation mechanisms during pathological overvaluations—price bubbles. The connection between the behavioral and neural underpinnings of such phenomena has been absent, in part due to a lack of enabling technology. We used a multisubject functional MRI paradigm to measure neural activity in human subjects participating in experimental asset markets in which endogenous price bubbles formed and crashed. Although many ideas exist about how and why such bubbles may form and how to identify them, our experiment provided a window on the connection between neural responses and behavioral acts (buying and selling) that created the bubbles. We show that aggregate neural activity in the nucleus accumbens (NAcc) tracks the price bubble and that NAcc activity aggregated within a market predicts future price changes and crashes. Furthermore, the lowest-earning subjects express a stronger tendency to buy as a function of measured NAcc activity. Conversely, we report a signal in the anterior insular cortex in the highest earners that precedes the impending price peak, is associated with a higher propensity to sell in high earners, and that may represent a neural early warning signal in these subjects. Such markets could be a model system to understand neural and behavior mechanisms in other settings where emergent group-level activity exhibits mistaken belief or valuation. PMID:25002476

  2. Irrational exuberance and neural crash warning signals during endogenous experimental market bubbles.

    PubMed

    Smith, Alec; Lohrenz, Terry; King, Justin; Montague, P Read; Camerer, Colin F

    2014-07-22

    Groups of humans routinely misassign value to complex future events, especially in settings involving the exchange of resources. If properly structured, experimental markets can act as excellent probes of human group-level valuation mechanisms during pathological overvaluations--price bubbles. The connection between the behavioral and neural underpinnings of such phenomena has been absent, in part due to a lack of enabling technology. We used a multisubject functional MRI paradigm to measure neural activity in human subjects participating in experimental asset markets in which endogenous price bubbles formed and crashed. Although many ideas exist about how and why such bubbles may form and how to identify them, our experiment provided a window on the connection between neural responses and behavioral acts (buying and selling) that created the bubbles. We show that aggregate neural activity in the nucleus accumbens (NAcc) tracks the price bubble and that NAcc activity aggregated within a market predicts future price changes and crashes. Furthermore, the lowest-earning subjects express a stronger tendency to buy as a function of measured NAcc activity. Conversely, we report a signal in the anterior insular cortex in the highest earners that precedes the impending price peak, is associated with a higher propensity to sell in high earners, and that may represent a neural early warning signal in these subjects. Such markets could be a model system to understand neural and behavior mechanisms in other settings where emergent group-level activity exhibits mistaken belief or valuation.

  3. Developing a consumer evaluation tool of weight control strategy advertisements on the Internet.

    PubMed

    Luevorasirikul, Kanokrat; Gray, Nicola J; Anderson, Claire W

    2008-06-01

    To develop two evaluation tools for weight loss and weight gain advertisements on the Internet in order to help consumers to evaluate the quality of information within these advertisements. One hundred websites identified by Internet search engines for weight loss and weight gain strategies (50 websites each) were evaluated using two specific scoring instruments, developed by adapting questions from the 'DISCERN' tool and reviewing all related weight control guidelines and advertising regulations. The validity and reliability of the adapted tools were tested. Our evaluation tools rated the information from most websites as poor quality (70%). In the case of weight loss strategies, statements about rapid (18%) and permanent (28%) weight loss caused concern as well as lack of sensible advice about dieting and a lack of product warnings (84%). Safety concerns relating to weight gain products were the lack of warnings about side effects in products containing steroids and creatine (92%). The adapted tools exhibited acceptable validity and reliability. Quality of information within weight control advertisements on the Internet was generally poor. Problems of false claims, little advice on healthy ways to modify weight and few warnings on side effects have been highlighted in this study.

  4. Conflicts in maintaining biodiversity at multiple scales.

    PubMed

    Lankau, Richard A

    2011-05-01

    Biodiversity consists of multiple scales, including functional diversity in ecological traits, species diversity and genetic diversity within species, and is declining across the globe, largely in response to human activities. While species extinctions are the most obvious aspect of this, there has also been a more insidious loss of genetic diversity within species. While a vast literature concerns each of these scales of biodiversity, less is known about how different scales affect one another. In particular, genetic and species diversity may influence each other in numerous ways, both positively and negatively. However, we know little about the mechanism behind these patterns. In this issue of Molecular Ecology, Nestmann et al. (2011) experimentally explore the effect of species and functional diversity and composition of grassland plant communities on the genetic structure of one of the component species. Increasing species richness led to greater changes in the genetic composition of the focal populations over 4 years, primarily because of genetic drift in smaller population sizes. However, there were also genetic changes in response to particular plant functional groups, indicating selective differences driven by plant community composition. These results suggest that different levels of biodiversity can trade-off in communities, which may prove a challenge for conservation biologists seeking to preserve all aspects of biodiversity.

  5. 14 CFR 25.1203 - Fire detector system.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... fire zone, and in the combustion, turbine, and tailpipe sections of turbine engine installations, in... the sensor or associated wiring within a designated fire zone is severed at one point, unless the... means to warn the crew in the event of a short circuit in the sensor or associated wiring within a...

  6. Within compound, looking northwest, Power Plant (Building 5761) and Guard ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    Within compound, looking northwest, Power Plant (Building 5761) and Guard Tower (Building 5762) to left, Electrical Substation to right - Beale Air Force Base, Perimeter Acquisition Vehicle Entry Phased-Array Warning System, End of Spencer Paul Road, north of Warren Shingle Road (14th Street), Marysville, Yuba County, CA

  7. Intravenous thrombolysis with recombinant tissue plasminogen activator in vascular warning syndromes.

    PubMed

    González Hernández, A; Fabre Pi, O; Cabrera Naranjo, F; López Veloso, A C

    2014-01-01

    Vascular warning syndromes constitute a neurological emergency due to their associated high risk of established stroke. At present, there is no strong evidence indicating the best treatment for these patients. The aim of this paper is to describe the function of intravenous rt-PA thrombolysis in the treatment of vascular warning syndromes. We reviewed our hospital records and the literature to find patients with neurologically fluctuating profiles and who underwent intravenous rt-PA thrombolysis. We retrieved 3 cases from our hospital records and 19 from the literature (15 males and 7 females). Mean age was 68.7±9 years (range: 52-84 years). The mean number of episodes before treatment was 4 (range: 2-15 episodes). The maximum NIHSS scores ranged from 6 to 22 in different patients. We obtained 24-hour post-treatment NIHSS scores in 8 cases; of these cases, 6 (75%) had a score of 0, and the other 2 (25%) had a score of 12. The Modified Rankin Score calculated at 3 months of treatment was 0 or 1 in 18 patients (81.8%); these 18 comprised 8 of the 10 patients with lacunar warning syndromes (80%), 6 of the 7 with basilar warning syndromes (85.7%), and 4 of the 5 with fluctuating non-lacunar, non-basilar warning syndromes (80%). Intravenous rt-PA treatment may constitute an effective and safe therapeutic alternative for patients with neurovascular fluctuations. However, well-designed studies are needed to determine the role of intravenous rt-PA thrombolysis in cases of vascular warning syndrome. Copyright © 2013 Sociedad Española de Neurología. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  8. Emotional reaction facilitates the brain and behavioural impact of graphic cigarette warning labels in smokers.

    PubMed

    Wang, An-Li; Lowen, Steven B; Romer, Daniel; Giorno, Mario; Langleben, Daniel D

    2015-05-01

    Warning labels on cigarette packages are an important venue for information about the hazards of smoking. The 2009 US Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act mandated replacing the current text-only labels with graphic warning labels. However, labels proposed by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) were challenged in court by the tobacco companies, who argued successfully that the proposed labels needlessly encroached on their right to free speech, in part because they included images of high emotional salience that indiscriminately frightened rather than informed consumers. We used functional MRI to examine the effects of graphic warning labels' emotional salience on smokers' brain activity and cognition. Twenty-four smokers viewed a random sequence of blocks of graphic warning labels that have been rated high or low on an 'emotional reaction' scale in previous research. We found that labels rated high on emotional reaction were better remembered, associated with reduction in the urge to smoke, and produced greater brain response in the amygdala, hippocampi, inferior frontal gyri and the insulae. Recognition memory and craving are, respectively, correlates of effectiveness of addiction-related public health communications and interventions, and amygdala activation facilitates the encoding of emotional memories. Thus, our results suggest that emotional reaction to graphic warning labels contributes to their public health impact and may be an integral part of the neural mechanisms underlying their effectiveness. Given the urgency of the debate about the constitutional risks and public health benefits of graphic warning labels, these preliminary findings warrant consideration while longitudinal clinical studies are underway. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  9. Exploring the utility of real-time hydrologic data for landslide early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mirus, B. B.; Smith, J. B.; Becker, R.; Baum, R. L.; Koss, E.

    2017-12-01

    Early warning systems can provide critical information for operations managers, emergency planners, and the public to help reduce fatalities, injuries, and economic losses due to landsliding. For shallow, rainfall-triggered landslides early warning systems typically use empirical rainfall thresholds, whereas the actual triggering mechanism involves the non-linear hydrological processes of infiltration, evapotranspiration, and hillslope drainage that are more difficult to quantify. Because hydrologic monitoring has demonstrated that shallow landslides are often preceded by a rise in soil moisture and pore-water pressures, some researchers have developed early warning criteria that attempt to account for these antecedent wetness conditions through relatively simplistic storage metrics or soil-water balance modeling. Here we explore the potential for directly incorporating antecedent wetness into landslide early warning criteria using recent landslide inventories and in-situ hydrologic monitoring near Seattle, WA, and Portland, OR. We use continuous, near-real-time telemetered soil moisture and pore-water pressure data measured within a few landslide-prone hillslopes in combination with measured and forecasted rainfall totals to inform easy-to-interpret landslide initiation thresholds. Objective evaluation using somewhat limited landslide inventories suggests that our new thresholds based on subsurface hydrologic monitoring and rainfall data compare favorably to the capabilities of existing rainfall-only thresholds for the Seattle area, whereas there are no established rainfall thresholds for the Portland area. This preliminary investigation provides a proof-of-concept for the utility of developing landslide early warning criteria in two different geologic settings using real-time subsurface hydrologic measurements from in-situ instrumentation.

  10. Warnings as a directive front-of-pack nutrition labelling scheme: comparison with the Guideline Daily Amount and traffic-light systems.

    PubMed

    Arrúa, Alejandra; Machín, Leandro; Curutchet, María Rosa; Martínez, Joseline; Antúnez, Lucía; Alcaire, Florencia; Giménez, Ana; Ares, Gastón

    2017-09-01

    Warnings have recently been proposed as a new type of directive front-of-pack (FOP) nutrition labelling scheme to flag products with high content of key nutrients. In the present work, this system was compared with the two most common FOP nutrition labelling schemes (Guideline Daily Amounts (GDA) and traffic-light system) in terms of goal-directed attention, influence on perceived healthfulness and ability to differentiate between products. Design/Setting/Subjects Goal-directed attention to FOP labels was evaluated using a visual search task in which participants were presented with labels on a computer screen and were asked to indicate whether labels with high sodium content were present or absent. A survey with 387 participants was also carried out, in which the influence of FOP labels on perceived healthfulness and ability to identify the healthful alternative were evaluated. Warnings improved consumers' ability to correctly identify a product with high content of a key nutrient within a set of labels compared with GDA and received the highest goal-directed attention. In addition, products with high energy, saturated fat, sugar and/or sodium content that featured warnings on the label were perceived as less healthful than those featuring the GDA or traffic-light system. Warnings and the traffic-light system performed equally well in the identification of the most healthful product. Results from the present work suggest that warnings have potential as directive FOP nutrition labels to improve consumer ability to identify unhealthful products and highlight advantages compared with the traffic-light system.

  11. Effect of Acid and Alcohol Network Forces within Functionalized Multiwall Carbon Nanotubes Bundles on Adsorption of Copper (II) Species

    EPA Science Inventory

    Adsorption of metals on carbon nanotubes (CNTs) has important applications in sensors, membranes, and water treatment. The adsorptive capacity of multiwall CNTs for copper species in water depends on the type of functional group present on their surface. The alcohol (COOH) and ac...

  12. Robust Kalman filter design for predictive wind shear detection

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stratton, Alexander D.; Stengel, Robert F.

    1991-01-01

    Severe, low-altitude wind shear is a threat to aviation safety. Airborne sensors under development measure the radial component of wind along a line directly in front of an aircraft. In this paper, optimal estimation theory is used to define a detection algorithm to warn of hazardous wind shear from these sensors. To achieve robustness, a wind shear detection algorithm must distinguish threatening wind shear from less hazardous gustiness, despite variations in wind shear structure. This paper presents statistical analysis methods to refine wind shear detection algorithm robustness. Computational methods predict the ability to warn of severe wind shear and avoid false warning. Comparative capability of the detection algorithm as a function of its design parameters is determined, identifying designs that provide robust detection of severe wind shear.

  13. Quantifying effects of biodiversity on ecosystem functioning across times and places†

    PubMed Central

    Isbell, Forest; Cowles, Jane; Dee, Laura E.; Loreau, Michel; Reich, Peter B.; Gonzalez, Andrew; Hector, Andy; Schmid, Bernhard

    2018-01-01

    Biodiversity loss decreases ecosystem functioning at the local scales at which species interact, but it remains unclear how biodiversity loss affects ecosystem functioning at the larger scales of space and time that are most relevant to biodiversity conservation and policy. Theory predicts that additional insurance effects of biodiversity on ecosystem functioning could emerge across time and space if species respond asynchronously to environmental variation and if species become increasingly dominant when and where they are most productive. Even if only a few dominant species maintain ecosystem functioning within a particular time and place, ecosystem functioning may be enhanced by many different species across many times and places (β-diversity). Here, we develop and apply a new approach to estimate these previously unquantified insurance effects of biodiversity on ecosystem functioning that arise due to species turnover across times and places. In a long-term (18-year) grassland plant diversity experiment, we find that total insurance effects are positive in sign and substantial in magnitude, amounting to 19% of the net biodiversity effect, mostly due to temporal insurance effects. Species loss can therefore reduce ecosystem functioning both locally and by eliminating species that would otherwise enhance ecosystem functioning across temporally fluctuating and spatially heterogeneous environments. PMID:29493062

  14. Quantifying effects of biodiversity on ecosystem functioning across times and places.

    PubMed

    Isbell, Forest; Cowles, Jane; Dee, Laura E; Loreau, Michel; Reich, Peter B; Gonzalez, Andrew; Hector, Andy; Schmid, Bernhard

    2018-06-01

    Biodiversity loss decreases ecosystem functioning at the local scales at which species interact, but it remains unclear how biodiversity loss affects ecosystem functioning at the larger scales of space and time that are most relevant to biodiversity conservation and policy. Theory predicts that additional insurance effects of biodiversity on ecosystem functioning could emerge across time and space if species respond asynchronously to environmental variation and if species become increasingly dominant when and where they are most productive. Even if only a few dominant species maintain ecosystem functioning within a particular time and place, ecosystem functioning may be enhanced by many different species across many times and places (β-diversity). Here, we develop and apply a new approach to estimate these previously unquantified insurance effects of biodiversity on ecosystem functioning that arise due to species turnover across times and places. In a long-term (18-year) grassland plant diversity experiment, we find that total insurance effects are positive in sign and substantial in magnitude, amounting to 19% of the net biodiversity effect, mostly due to temporal insurance effects. Species loss can therefore reduce ecosystem functioning both locally and by eliminating species that would otherwise enhance ecosystem functioning across temporally fluctuating and spatially heterogeneous environments. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  15. Biogeochemical and Ecomorphological Niche Segregation of Mediterranean Woody Species along a Local Gradient.

    PubMed

    de la Riva, Enrique G; Marañón, Teodoro; Violle, Cyrille; Villar, Rafael; Pérez-Ramos, Ignacio M

    2017-01-01

    According with niche theory the species are specialized in different ecological niches, being able to coexist as result of a differential use of resources. In this context, the biogeochemical niche hypothesis proposes that species have an optimal elemental composition which results from the link between the chemical and morphological traits for the optimum plant functioning. Thus, and attending to the limiting similarity concept, different elemental composition and plant structure among co-occurring species may reduce competition, promoting different functional niches. Different functional habits associated with leaf life-span or growth forms are associated with different strategies for resource uptake, which could promote niche partitioning. In the present study, based on the biogeochemical niche concept and the use of resources in different proportions, we have focused on leaf traits (morphological and chemical) associated with resource uptake, and explored the niche partitioning among functional habits: leaf life-span (deciduous, evergreen, and semideciduous) and growth (tree, shrub, and arborescent-shrub). To this end, we have quantified the hypervolume of the leaf functional trait space (both structure and chemical composition) in a sample of 45 Mediterranean woody species from Sierra Morena Mountains (Spain) growing along a local soil resource gradient. Our results show consistent variation in functional space for woody communities distributed along the environmental gradient. Thus, communities dominated by deciduous trees with faster growth and a predominant acquisitive strategy were characteristic of bottom forests and showed highest leaf biogeochemical space. While semideciduous shrubs and evergreen (arborescent, trees) species, characterized by a conservative strategy, dominated ridge forests and showed smaller functional space. In addition, within each topographical zone or environment type, the foliar biogeochemical niche partitioning would underlie the species ability to coexist by diverging on leaf nutrient composition and resource uptake. Lower niche overlap among functional habits were found, which support that different growth forms and leaf life-habits may facilitate the coexistence of the woody species and niche partitioning along and within the gradient.

  16. Smell of danger: an analysis of LP-gas odorization

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Cain, W.S.; Turk, A.

    1985-03-01

    LP-gas derives warning properties from the odorants ethyl mercaptan or thiophane. Laboratory tests have implied that the average person has the ability to smell the odors before leaking LP-gas reaches one-fifth its lower limit of flammability. Generally, however, laboratory tests ignore or discard persons with a poor sense of smell, especially the elderly and persons with certain types of hyposmia. Some persons who apparently can smell the warning agents when directed may otherwise fail to notice or identify them. Elderly men seem particularly vulnerable to instances of incidental anosmia and olfactory agnosia. Psychophysical testing of the warning agents has beenmore » rather unsophisticated. There exists neither a standard protocol for testing nor adequate specification of the perceptual properties that might make one warning agent better than another. Without such developments, improvement in warning agents will fail to occur. Possible improvements include increases in concentration, the use of blends to insure more uniform delivery of agent and, to decrease the perceptual vulnerability of relatively insensitive people, use of agents with favorable psychophysical (stimulus-response) functions and use of agents with favorable adaptation characteristics. Even without a change in existing products, it seems advisable to learn more about the vulnerability of LP-gas users and to employ educational means to reduce risks.« less

  17. Biological function in the twilight zone of sequence conservation.

    PubMed

    Ponting, Chris P

    2017-08-16

    Strong DNA conservation among divergent species is an indicator of enduring functionality. With weaker sequence conservation we enter a vast 'twilight zone' in which sequence subject to transient or lower constraint cannot be distinguished easily from neutrally evolving, non-functional sequence. Twilight zone functional sequence is illuminated instead by principles of selective constraint and positive selection using genomic data acquired from within a species' population. Application of these principles reveals that despite being biochemically active, most twilight zone sequence is not functional.

  18. Warning: potential problems for taxonomy on the horizon?

    PubMed

    Cianferoni, Fabio; Bartolozzi, Luca

    2016-07-19

    Whether or not a species might reasonably be described without the preservation of a type specimen is a matter of ongoing discussion among taxonomists (Dubois & Nemésio 2007; Minteer et al. 2014; Krell & Wheeler 2014; Löbl et al. 2016; Marshall & Evenhuis 2016; Santos et al. 2016). Here, we attempt to make our own contribution to the topic.

  19. The strategy and design of the effectiveness monitoring program for the Northwest Forest Plan.

    Treesearch

    Barry S. Mulder; Barry R. Noon; Thomas A. Spies; Martin G. Raphael; Craig J. Palmer; Anthony R. Olsen; Gordon H. Reeves; Hartwell H. Welsh

    1999-01-01

    This report describes the logic and design of an effectiveness monitoring program for the Northwest Forest Plan. The program is prospective, providing an early warning of environmental change before irreversible loss has occurred. Monitoring is focused at two resource levels: individual species and specific ecosystem types. Selection of prospective indicators for the...

  20. Microbial immigration across the Mediterranean via airborne dust

    PubMed Central

    Rosselli, Riccardo; Fiamma, Maura; Deligios, Massimo; Pintus, Gabriella; Pellizzaro, Grazia; Canu, Annalisa; Duce, Pierpaolo; Squartini, Andrea; Muresu, Rosella; Cappuccinelli, Pietro

    2015-01-01

    Dust particles lifting and discharge from Africa to Europe is a recurring phenomenon linked to air circulation conditions. The possibility that microorganisms are conveyed across distances entails important consequences in terms of biosafety and pathogens spread. Using culture independent DNA-based analyses via next generation sequencing of the 16 S genes from the airborne metagenome, the atmospheric microbial community was characterized and the hypothesis was tested that shifts in species diversity could be recorded in relation to dust discharge. As sampling ground the island of Sardinia was chosen, being an ideal cornerstone within the Mediterranean and a crossroad of wind circulation amidst Europe and Africa. Samples were collected in two opposite coastal sites and in two different weather conditions comparing dust-conveying winds from Africa with a control situation with winds from Europe. A major conserved core microbiome was evidenced but increases in species richness and presence of specific taxa were nevertheless observed in relation to each wind regime. Taxa which can feature strains with clinical implications were also detected. The approach is reported as a recommended model monitoring procedure for early warning alerts in frameworks of biosafety against natural spread of clinical microbiota across countries as well as to prevent bacteriological warfare. PMID:26542754

  1. An Experimental Seismic Data and Parameter Exchange System for Tsunami Warning Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoffmann, T. L.; Hanka, W.; Saul, J.; Weber, B.; Becker, J.; Heinloo, A.; Hoffmann, M.

    2009-12-01

    For several years GFZ Potsdam is operating a global earthquake monitoring system. Since the beginning of 2008, this system is also used as an experimental seismic background data center for two different regional Tsunami Warning Systems (TWS), the IOTWS (Indian Ocean) and the interim NEAMTWS (NE Atlantic and Mediterranean). The SeisComP3 (SC3) software, developed within the GITEWS (German Indian Ocean Tsunami Early Warning System) project, capable to acquire, archive and process real-time data feeds, was extended for export and import of individual processing results within the two clusters of connected SC3 systems. Therefore not only real-time waveform data are routed to the attached warning centers through GFZ but also processing results. While the current experimental NEAMTWS cluster consists of SC3 systems in six designated national warning centers in Europe, the IOTWS cluster presently includes seven centers, with another three likely to join in 2009/10. For NEAMTWS purposes, the GFZ virtual real-time seismic network (GEOFON Extended Virtual Network -GEVN) in Europe was substantially extended by adding many stations from Western European countries optimizing the station distribution. In parallel to the data collection over the Internet, a GFZ VSAT hub for secured data collection of the EuroMED GEOFON and NEAMTWS backbone network stations became operational and first data links were established through this backbone. For the Southeast Asia region, a VSAT hub has been established in Jakarta already in 2006, with some other partner networks connecting to this backbone via the Internet. Since its establishment, the experimental system has had the opportunity to prove its performance in a number of relevant earthquakes. Reliable solutions derived from a minimum of 25 stations were very promising in terms of speed. For important events, automatic alerts were released and disseminated by emails and SMS. Manually verified solutions are added as soon as they become available. The results are also promising in terms of accuracy since epicenter coordinates, depth and magnitude estimates were sufficiently accurate from the very beginning, and usually do not differ substantially from the final solutions. In summary, automatic seismic event processing has shown to work well as a first step for starting a Tsunami Warning process. However, for the secured assessment of the tsunami potential of a given event, 24/7-manned regional TWCs are mandatory for reliable manual verification of the automatic seismic results. At this time, GFZ itself provides manual verification only when staff is available, not on a 24/7 basis, while the actual national tsunami warning centers have all a reliable 24/7 service.

  2. Estimating Seismic Moment From Broadband P-Waves for Tsunami Warnings.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirshorn, B. F.

    2006-12-01

    The Richard H. Hagemeyer Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC), located in Ewa Beach, Oahu, Hawaii, is responsible for issuing local, regional, and distant tsunami warnings to Hawaii, and for issuing regional and distant tsunami warnings to the rest of the Pacific Basin, exclusive of the US West Coast. The PTWC must provide these tsunami warnings as soon as technologically possible, based entirely on estimates of a potentially tsunamigenic earthquake's source parameters. We calculate the broadband P-wave moment magnitude, Mwp, from the P or pP wave velocity seismograms [Tsuboi et al., 1995, 1999]. This method appears to work well for regional and teleseismic events [ Tsuboi et al (1999], Whitmore et al (2002), Hirshorn et al (2004) ]. Following Tsuboi, [1995], we consider the displacement record of the P-wave portion of the broadband seismograms as an approximate source time function and integrate this record to obtain the moment rate function, Mo(t), and the moment magnitude [Hanks and Kanamori, 1972] as a function of time, Mw(t). We present results for Mwp for local, regional, and teleseismic broad band recordings for earthquakes in the Mw 5 to 9.3 range. As large Hawaii events are rare, we tested this local case using other Pacific events in the magnitude 5.0 to 7.5 range recorded by nearby stations. Signals were excluded, however, if the epicentral distance was so small (generally less than 1 degree) that there was contamination by the S-wave too closely following the P-waves. Scatter plots of Mwp against the Harvard Mw for these events shows that Mwp does predict Mw well from seismograms recorded at local, regional, and teleseismic distances. For some complex earthquakes, eg. the Mw 8.4(HRV) Peru earthquake of June 21, 2001, Mwp underestimates Mw if the first moment release is not the largest. Our estimates of Mwp for the Mw 9.3 Summatra-Andaman Island's earthquake of December 26, 2004 and for the Mw 8.7 (HRV) Summatra event of March 28, 2005, were Mwp 8.1, Mwp 8.7 respectively, from p-waves recorded at 15 - 90 degrees from each hypocenter.

  3. Detection of Deteriorating Patients on Surgical Wards Outside the ICU by an Automated MEWS-Based Early Warning System With Paging Functionality.

    PubMed

    Heller, Axel R; Mees, Sören T; Lauterwald, Benjamin; Reeps, Christian; Koch, Thea; Weitz, Jürgen

    2018-05-16

    The establishment of early warning systems in hospitals was strongly recommended in recent guidelines to detect deteriorating patients early and direct them to adequate care. Upon reaching predefined trigger criteria, Medical Emergency Teams (MET) should be notified and directed to these patients. The present study analyses the effect of introducing an automated multiparameter early warning score (MEWS)-based early warning system with paging functionality on 2 wards hosting patients recovering from highly complex surgical interventions. The deployment of the system was accompanied by retrospective data acquisition during 12 months (intervention) using 4 routine databases: Hospital patient data management, anesthesia database, local data of the German Resuscitation Registry, and measurement logs of the deployed system (intervention period only). A retrospective 12-month data review using the same aforementioned databases before the deployment of the system served as control. Control and intervention phases were separated by a 6-month washout period for the installation of the system and for training. Data from 3827 patients could be acquired from 2 surgical wards during the two 12-month periods, 1896 patients in the control and 1931 in the intervention cohorts. Patient characteristics differed between the 2 observation phases. American Society of Anesthesiologists risk classification and duration of surgery as well as German DRG case-weight were significantly higher in the intervention period. However, the rate of cardiac arrests significantly dropped from 5.3 to 2.1 per 1000 admissions in the intervention period (P < 0.001). This observation was paralleled by a reduction of unplanned ICU admissions from 3.6% to 3.0% (P < 0.001), and an increase of notifications of critical conditions to the ward surgeon. The primary triggers for MET activation were abnormal ECG alerts, specifically asystole (n = 5), and pulseless electric activity (n = 8). In concert with a well-trained and organized MET, the early deterioration detection of patients on surgical wards outside the ICU may be improved by introducing an automated MEWS-based early warning system with paging functionality.

  4. Using Quality Improvement to Introduce and Standardize the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) for Adult Inpatients at a Children's Hospital.

    PubMed

    Conway-Habes, Erin E; Herbst, Brian F; Herbst, Lori A; Kinnear, Benjamin; Timmons, Kristen; Horewitz, Deborah; Falgout, Rachel; O'Toole, Jennifer K; Vossmeyer, Michael

    2017-03-01

    The population of adults with childhood-onset chronic illness is growing across children's hospitals and constitutes a high risk population. National Early Warning Score (NEWS) is among the most recently validated adult early warning scores (EWSs) for early recognition of and response to clinical deterioration. Our aim was to implement and standardize NEWS scoring in 80% of patients age 21 and older admitted to a children's hospital. Our intervention was tested on a single unit of our children's hospital. The primary process measure was the percentage of NEWS documented within 1 hour of routine nursing assessments, and was tracked using a run chart. Improvement activities focused on effective training, key stakeholder buy-in, increased awareness, real-time mitigation of failures, accountability for adherence, and action-oriented response. We also tracked the distribution of NEWS values and medical emergency team calls. The percentage of NEWS documented with routine nursing assessments for patients age 21 and over increased from 0% to 90% within 15 weeks and remained at 77% or greater for 17 weeks. Our distribution of NEWS values was similar to previously reported NEWS distribution. A nurse-driven adult early warning system for inpatients age 21 and older at a children's hospital can be achieved through a standardized EWS assessment process, incorporation into the electronic health record, and charge nurse and key stakeholder oversight. Furthermore, implementation of an adult EWS being used at a pediatric institution and our distribution of NEWS values were comparable to distribution published from adult hospitals. Copyright © 2017 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

  5. Environment Agency England flood warning systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strong, Chris; Walters, Mark; Haynes, Elizabeth; Dobson, Peter

    2015-04-01

    Context In England around 5 million homes are at risk of flooding. We invest significantly in flood prevention and management schemes but we can never prevent all flooding. Early alerting systems are fundamental to helping us reduce the impacts of flooding. The Environment Agency has had the responsibility for flood warning since 1996. In 2006 we invested in a new dissemination system that would send direct messages to pre-identified recipients via a range of channels. Since then we have continuously improved the system and service we offer. In 2010 we introduced an 'opt-out' service where we pre-registered landline numbers in flood risk areas, significantly increasing the customer base. The service has performed exceptionally well under intense flood conditions. Over a period of 3 days in December 2013, when England was experiencing an east coast storm surge, the system sent nearly 350,000 telephone messages, 85,000 emails and 70,000 text messages, with a peak call rate of around 37,000 per hour and 100% availability. The Floodline Warnings Direct (FWD) System FWD provides warnings in advance of flooding so that people at risk and responders can take action to minimise the impact of the flood. Warnings are sent via telephone, fax, text message, pager or e-mail to over 1.1 million properties located within flood risk areas in England. Triggers for issuing alerts and warnings include attained and forecast river levels and rainfall in some rapidly responding locations. There are three levels of warning: Flood Alert, Flood Warning and Severe Flood Warning, and a stand down message. The warnings can be updated to include relevant information to help inform those at risk. Working with our current provider Fujitsu, the system is under a programme of continuous improvement including expanding the 'opt-out' service to mobile phone numbers registered to at risk addresses, allowing mobile registration to the system for people 'on the move' and providing access to registration via third parties. The 'Future Flood Warning System' Our research shows that people want more choice on how they access and receive warnings. Many want a service tailored to their own risk, rather than that of their community. They also want more information about the forecast and the situation to that they can make decisions personal to their circumstances. Our future flood warning system will build upon the success of our existing service and will aim to: • provide our customers with a more flexible and personalised self-service approach which caters for the diverse range of user needs • alert people wherever they are, not just in properties • be flexible enough to respond to user feedback to make improvements and utilise new technology as it becomes available • provide real-time visualisation of system performance, to assist our flood response • capture greater levels of information from the recipients of our warnings • be efficient for operators of the system and utilise automation where relevant • take a risk based approach to resilience to provide the highest level of reliability when needed at a reduced cost

  6. Effects of long- and short-term management on the functional structure of meadows through species turnover and intraspecific trait variability.

    PubMed

    Volf, Martin; Redmond, Conor; Albert, Ágnes J; Le Bagousse-Pinguet, Yoann; Biella, Paolo; Götzenberger, Lars; Hrázský, Záboj; Janeček, Štěpán; Klimešová, Jitka; Lepš, Jan; Šebelíková, Lenka; Vlasatá, Tereza; de Bello, Francesco

    2016-04-01

    The functional structures of communities respond to environmental changes by both species replacement (turnover) and within-species variation (intraspecific trait variability; ITV). Evidence is lacking on the relative importance of these two components, particularly in response to both short- and long-term environmental disturbance. We hypothesized that such short- and long-term perturbations would induce changes in community functional structure primarily via ITV and turnover, respectively. To test this we applied an experimental design across long-term mown and abandoned meadows, with each plot containing a further level of short-term management treatments: mowing, grazing and abandonment. Within each plot, species composition and trait values [height, shoot biomass, and specific leaf area (SLA)] were recorded on up to five individuals per species. Positive covariations between the contribution of species turnover and ITV occurred for height and shoot biomass in response to both short- and long-term management, indicating that species turnover and intraspecific adjustments selected for similar trait values. Positive covariations also occurred for SLA, but only in response to long-term management. The contributions of turnover and ITV changed depending on both the trait and management trajectory. As expected, communities responded to short-term disturbances mostly through changes in intraspecific trait variability, particularly for height and biomass. Interestingly, for SLA they responded to long-term disturbances by both species turnover and intraspecific adjustments. These findings highlight the importance of both ITV and species turnover in adjusting grassland functional trait response to environmental perturbation, and show that the response is trait specific and affected by disturbance regime history.

  7. Understanding relationships among abundance, extirpation,and climate at ecoregional scales

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Beever, Erik A.; Solomon Dubrowski,; ,; ,; J. Long,; ,; A. Mysnberge,; Piekielek, N. B.

    2014-01-01

    Recent research on mountain-dwelling species has illustrated changes in species’ distributional patterns in response to climate change. Abundance of a species will likely provide an earlier warning indicator of change than will occupancy, yet relationships between abundance and climatic factors have received less attention. We tested whether predictors of counts of American pikas (Ochotona princeps) during surveys from the Great Basin region in 1994–1999 and 2003–2008 differed between the two periods. Additionally, we tested whether various modeled aspects of ecohydrology better predicted relative density than did average annual precipitation, and whether risk of site-wide extirpation predicted subsequent population counts of pikas. We observed several patterns of change in pika abundance at range edges that likely constitute early warnings of distributional shifts. Predictors of pika abundance differed strongly between the survey periods, as did pika extirpation patterns previously reported from this region. Additionally, maximum snowpack and growing-season precipitation resulted in better-supported models than those using average annual precipitation, and constituted two of the top three predictors of pika density in the 2000s surveys (affecting pikas perhaps via vegetation). Unexpectedly, we found that extirpation risk positively predicted subsequent population size. Our results emphasize the need to clarify mechanisms underlying biotic responses to recent climate change at organism-relevant scales, to inform management and conservation strategies for species of concern.

  8. Effect of warning placement on the information processing of college students reading an OTC drug facts panel.

    PubMed

    Bhansali, Archita H; Sangani, Darshan S; Mhatre, Shivani K; Sansgiry, Sujit S

    2018-01-01

    To compare three over-the-counter (OTC) Drug Facts panel versions for information processing optimization among college students. University of Houston students (N = 210) participated in a cross-sectional survey from January to May 2010. A current FDA label was compared to two experimental labels developed using the theory of CHREST to test information processing by re-positioning the warning information within the Drug Facts panel. Congruency was defined as placing like information together. Information processing was evaluated using the OTC medication Label Evaluation Process Model (LEPM): label comprehension, ease-of-use, attitude toward the product, product evaluation, and purchase intention. Experimental label with chunked congruent information (uses-directions-other information-warnings) was rated significantly higher than the current FDA label and had the best average scores among the LEPM information processing variables. If replications uphold these findings, the FDA label design might be revised to improve information processing.

  9. Acoustic signal detection of manatee calls

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Niezrecki, Christopher; Phillips, Richard; Meyer, Michael; Beusse, Diedrich O.

    2003-04-01

    The West Indian manatee (trichechus manatus latirostris) has become endangered partly because of a growing number of collisions with boats. A system to warn boaters of the presence of manatees, that can signal to boaters that manatees are present in the immediate vicinity, could potentially reduce these boat collisions. In order to identify the presence of manatees, acoustic methods are employed. Within this paper, three different detection algorithms are used to detect the calls of the West Indian manatee. The detection systems are tested in the laboratory using simulated manatee vocalizations from an audio compact disc. The detection method that provides the best overall performance is able to correctly identify ~=96% of the manatee vocalizations. However the system also results in a false positive rate of ~=16%. The results of this work may ultimately lead to the development of a manatee warning system that can warn boaters of the presence of manatees.

  10. Acoustic detection of manatee vocalizations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Niezrecki, Christopher; Phillips, Richard; Meyer, Michael; Beusse, Diedrich O.

    2003-09-01

    The West Indian manatee (trichechus manatus latirostris) has become endangered partly because of a growing number of collisions with boats. A system to warn boaters of the presence of manatees, that can signal to boaters that manatees are present in the immediate vicinity, could potentially reduce these boat collisions. In order to identify the presence of manatees, acoustic methods are employed. Within this paper, three different detection algorithms are used to detect the calls of the West Indian manatee. The detection systems are tested in the laboratory using simulated manatee vocalizations from an audio compact disk. The detection method that provides the best overall performance is able to correctly identify ~96% of the manatee vocalizations. However, the system also results in a false alarm rate of ~16%. The results of this work may ultimately lead to the development of a manatee warning system that can warn boaters of the presence of manatees.

  11. Black box warning: is ketorolac safe for use after cardiac surgery?

    PubMed

    Oliveri, Lisa; Jerzewski, Katie; Kulik, Alexander

    2014-04-01

    In 2005, after the identification of cardiovascular safety concerns with the use of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), the FDA issued a black box warning recommending against the use of NSAIDs following cardiac surgery. The goal of this study was to assess the postoperative safety of ketorolac, an intravenously administered NSAID, after cardiac surgery. Retrospective observational study. Single center, regional hospital. A total of 1,309 cardiac surgical patients (78.1% coronary bypass, 28.0% valve) treated between 2006 and 2012. A total of 488 of these patients received ketorolac for postoperative analgesia within 72 hours of surgery. Ketorolac-treated patients were younger, had better preoperative renal function, and underwent less complex operations compared with non-ketorolac patients. Ketorolac was administered, on average, 8.7 hours after surgery (mean doses: 3.1). Postoperative outcomes for ketorolac-treated patients were similar to those expected using Society of Thoracic Surgery database risk-adjusted outcomes. In unadjusted analysis, patients who received ketorolac had similar or better postoperative outcomes compared with patients who did not receive ketorolac, including gastrointestinal bleeding (1.2% v 1.3%; p = 1.0), renal failure requiring dialysis (0.4% v 3.0%; p = 0.001), perioperative myocardial infarction (1.0% v 0.6%; p = 0.51), stroke or transient ischemic attack (1.0% v 1.7%; p = 0.47), and death (0.4% v 5.8%; p<0.0001). With adjustment in a multivariate model, treatment with ketorolac was not a predictor for adverse outcome in this cohort (odds ratio: 0.72; p = 0.23). Ketorolac appears to be well-tolerated for use when administered selectively after cardiac surgery. Although a black box warning exists, the data highlights the need for further research regarding its perioperative administration. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. An operational real-time flood forecasting system in Southern Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ortiz, Enrique; Coccia, Gabriele; Todini, Ezio

    2015-04-01

    A real-time flood forecasting system has been operating since year 2012 as a non-structural measure for mitigating the flood risk in Campania Region (Southern Italy), within the Sele river basin (3.240 km2). The Sele Flood Forecasting System (SFFS) has been built within the FEWS (Flood Early Warning System) platform developed by Deltares and it assimilates the numerical weather predictions of the COSMO LAM family: the deterministic COSMO-LAMI I2, the deterministic COSMO-LAMI I7 and the ensemble numerical weather predictions COSMO-LEPS (16 members). Sele FFS is composed by a cascade of three main models. The first model is a fully continuous physically based distributed hydrological model, named TOPKAPI-eXtended (Idrologia&Ambiente s.r.l., Naples, Italy), simulating the dominant processes controlling the soil water dynamics, runoff generation and discharge with a spatial resolution of 250 m. The second module is a set of Neural-Networks (ANN) built for forecasting the river stages at a set of monitored cross-sections. The third component is a Model Conditional Processor (MCP), which provides the predictive uncertainty (i.e., the probability of occurrence of a future flood event) within the framework of a multi-temporal forecast, according to the most recent advancements on this topic (Coccia and Todini, HESS, 2011). The MCP provides information about the probability of exceedance of a maximum river stage within the forecast lead time, by means of a discrete time function representing the variation of cumulative probability of exceeding a river stage during the forecast lead time and the distribution of the time occurrence of the flood peak, starting from one or more model forecasts. This work shows the Sele FFS performance after two years of operation, evidencing the added-values that can provide to a flood early warning and emergency management system.

  13. Predicting future forests: Understanding diverse phenological responses within a community and functional trait framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wolkovich, E. M.; Flynn, D. F. B.

    2016-12-01

    In recent years increasing attention has focused on plant phenology as an important indicator of the biological impacts of climate change, as many plants have shifted their leafing and flowering earlier with increasing temperatures. As data have accumulated, researchers have found a link between phenological responses to warming and plant performance and invasions. Such work suggests phenology may not only be a major impact of warming, but a critical predictor of future plant performance. Yet alongside this increasing interest in phenology, important issues remain unanswered: responses to warming for species at the same site or in the same genus vary often by weeks or more and the explanatory power of phenology for performance and invasions when analyzed across diverse datasets remains low. We propose progress can come from explicitly considering phenology within a community context and as a critical plant trait correlated with other major plant functional traits. Here, we lay out a framework for our proposal: specifically we review how we expect phenology and phenological cues of different species within a community to vary and what other functional traits are predicted to co-vary with phenological traits. Much research currently suggests phenology is a critical functional trait that is shaped strongly by the environment. Plants are expected to adjust their phenologies to avoid periods of high abiotic risk and/or high competition. Thus we may expect phenology to correlate strongly to other traits involved in mitigating risk and high competition. Results from recent meta-analyses as well as experimental and observational research from 28 species in northeastern North American temperate forests suggest that species within a community show the predicted diversified set of phenological cues. We review early work on links to other functional traits and in closing review how these correlations may in turn determine the diversity of phenological responses observed for some species and communities.

  14. Extreme Warming Challenges Sentinel Status of Kelp Forests as Indicators of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, R. J.; Reed, D.; Washburn, L.; Rassweiler, A.; Bell, T. W.; Harrer, S.

    2016-12-01

    The ecological effects of global warming are expected to be large, but are proving difficult and costly to measure. This has led to a growing interest in using sentinel species as early warning indicators of impending climate change effects on entire ecosystems, raising awareness of the importance of verifying that such conservation shortcuts have sound biological foundations. A recent large-scale warming event in the North Pacific Ocean of unprecedented magnitude and duration allowed us to evaluate the sentinel status of giant kelp, a coastal foundation species that thrives in cold, nutrient-rich waters and considered sensitive to warming. Here we show that giant kelp did not presage ecosystem effects of extreme warming off southern California despite its expected vulnerability. Fluctuations in the biomass of giant kelp, understory algae, invertebrates and fish remained within historical ranges despite 34 months of above average temperatures and below average nutrients. Sea stars and sea urchins were exceptions, plummeting due to disease outbreaks linked to the warming. Our results challenge the IPCC predictions about the vulnerability of kelp-dominated systems to extreme warming events and question their use as early indicators of climate change. The resilience of giant kelp to unprecedented warming not only questions our understanding of kelp ecology, but exposes the risk of relying on supposed sentinel species that are assumed to be very sensitive to climate change.

  15. Morphometric and molecular identification of individual barnacle cyprids from wild plankton: an approach to detecting fouling and invasive barnacle species.

    PubMed

    Chen, Hsi-Nien; Høeg, Jens T; Chan, Benny K K

    2013-01-01

    The present study used DNA barcodes to identify individual cyprids to species. This enables accurate quantification of larvae of potential fouling species in the plankton. In addition, it explains the settlement patterns of barnacles and serves as an early warning system of unwanted immigrant species. Sequences from a total of 540 individual cypris larvae from Taiwanese waters formed 36 monophyletic clades (species) in a phylogenetic tree. Of these clades, 26 were identified to species, but 10 unknown monophyletic clades represented non-native species. Cyprids of the invasive barnacle, Megabalanus cocopoma, were identified. Multivariate analysis of antennular morphometric characters revealed three significant clusters in a nMDS plot, viz. a bell-shaped attachment organ (most species), a shoe-shaped attachment organ (some species), and a spear-shaped attachment organ (coral barnacles only). These differences in attachment organ structure indicate that antennular structures interact directly with the diverse substrata involved in cirripede settlement.

  16. The role of decision criterion in the Deese-Roediger-McDermott (DRM) false recognition memory: False memory falls and rises as a function of restriction on criterion setting.

    PubMed

    Jou, Jerwen; Escamilla, Eric E; Arredondo, Mario L; Pena, Liann; Zuniga, Richard; Perez, Martin; Garcia, Clarissa

    2018-02-01

    How much of the Deese-Roediger-McDermott (DRM) false memory is attributable to decision criterion is so far a controversial issue. Previous studies typically used explicit warnings against accepting the critical lure to investigate this issue. The assumption is that if the false memory results from using a liberally biased criterion, it should be greatly reduced or eliminated by an explicit warning against accepting the critical lure. Results showed that warning was generally ineffective. We asked the question of whether subjects can substantially reduce false recognition without being warned when the test forces them to make a distinction between true and false memories. Using a two-alternative forced choice in which criterion plays a relatively smaller role, we showed that subjects could indeed greatly reduce the rate of false recognition. However, when the forced-choice restriction was removed from the two-item choice test, the rate of false recognition rebounded to that of the hit for studied list words, indicating the role of criterion in false recognition.

  17. Is there a species spectrum within the world-wide leaf economics spectrum? Major variations in leaf functional traits in the Mediterranean sclerophyll Quercus ilex.

    PubMed

    Niinemets, Ulo

    2015-01-01

    The leaf economics spectrum is a general concept describing coordinated variation in foliage structural, chemical and physiological traits across resource gradients. Yet, within this concept,the role of within-species variation, including ecotypic and plastic variation components, has been largely neglected. This study hypothesized that there is a within-species economics spectrum within the general spectrum in the evergreen sclerophyll Quercus ilex which dominates low resource ecosystems over an exceptionally wide range. An extensive database of foliage traits covering the full species range was constructed, and improved filtering algorithms were developed. Standardized data filtering was deemed absolutely essential as additional variation sources can result in trait variation of 10–300%,blurring the broad relationships. Strong trait variation, c. two-fold for most traits to up to almost an order of magnitude, was uncovered.Although the Q. ilex spectrum is part of the general spectrum, within-species trait and climatic relationships in this species partly differed from the overall spectrum. Contrary to world-wide trends, Q. ilex does not necessarily have a low nitrogen content per mass and can increase photosynthetic capacity with increasing foliage robustness. This study argues that the within-species economics spectrum needs to be considered in regional- to biome-level analyses.

  18. Technical note: Efficient online source identification algorithm for integration within a contamination event management system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deuerlein, Jochen; Meyer-Harries, Lea; Guth, Nicolai

    2017-07-01

    Drinking water distribution networks are part of critical infrastructures and are exposed to a number of different risks. One of them is the risk of unintended or deliberate contamination of the drinking water within the pipe network. Over the past decade research has focused on the development of new sensors that are able to detect malicious substances in the network and early warning systems for contamination. In addition to the optimal placement of sensors, the automatic identification of the source of a contamination is an important component of an early warning and event management system for security enhancement of water supply networks. Many publications deal with the algorithmic development; however, only little information exists about the integration within a comprehensive real-time event detection and management system. In the following the analytical solution and the software implementation of a real-time source identification module and its integration within a web-based event management system are described. The development was part of the SAFEWATER project, which was funded under FP 7 of the European Commission.

  19. Map of Life - A Dashboard for Monitoring Planetary Species Distributions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jetz, W.

    2016-12-01

    Geographic information about biodiversity is vital for understanding the many services nature provides and their potential changes, yet remains unreliable and often insufficient. By integrating a wide range of knowledge about species distributions and their dynamics over time, Map of Life supports global biodiversity education, monitoring, research and decision-making. Built on a scalable web platform geared for large biodiversity and environmental data, Map of Life endeavors provides species range information globally and species lists for any area. With data and technology provided by NASA and Google Earth Engine, tools under development use remote sensing-based environmental layers to enable on-the-fly predictions of species distributions, range changes, and early warning signals for threatened species. The ultimate vision is a globally connected, collaborative knowledge- and tool-base for regional and local biodiversity decision-making, education, monitoring, and projection. For currently available tools, more information and to follow progress, go to MOL.org.

  20. The efficacy of support vector machines (SVM) in robust determination of earthquake early warning magnitudes in central Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reddy, Ramakrushna; Nair, Rajesh R.

    2013-10-01

    This work deals with a methodology applied to seismic early warning systems which are designed to provide real-time estimation of the magnitude of an event. We will reappraise the work of Simons et al. (2006), who on the basis of wavelet approach predicted a magnitude error of ±1. We will verify and improve upon the methodology of Simons et al. (2006) by applying an SVM statistical learning machine on the time-scale wavelet decomposition methods. We used the data of 108 events in central Japan with magnitude ranging from 3 to 7.4 recorded at KiK-net network stations, for a source-receiver distance of up to 150 km during the period 1998-2011. We applied a wavelet transform on the seismogram data and calculating scale-dependent threshold wavelet coefficients. These coefficients were then classified into low magnitude and high magnitude events by constructing a maximum margin hyperplane between the two classes, which forms the essence of SVMs. Further, the classified events from both the classes were picked up and linear regressions were plotted to determine the relationship between wavelet coefficient magnitude and earthquake magnitude, which in turn helped us to estimate the earthquake magnitude of an event given its threshold wavelet coefficient. At wavelet scale number 7, we predicted the earthquake magnitude of an event within 2.7 seconds. This means that a magnitude determination is available within 2.7 s after the initial onset of the P-wave. These results shed light on the application of SVM as a way to choose the optimal regression function to estimate the magnitude from a few seconds of an incoming seismogram. This would improve the approaches from Simons et al. (2006) which use an average of the two regression functions to estimate the magnitude.

  1. Changes in composition and abundance of functional groups of arctic fungi in response to long-term summer warming

    PubMed Central

    Semenova, Tatiana A.; Morgado, Luis N.; Welker, Jeffrey M.

    2016-01-01

    We characterized fungal communities in dry and moist tundra and investigated the effect of long-term experimental summer warming on three aspects of functional groups of arctic fungi: richness, community composition and species abundance. Warming had profound effects on community composition, abundance, and, to a lesser extent, on richness of fungal functional groups. In addition, our data show that even within functional groups, the direction and extent of response to warming tend to be species-specific and we recommend that studies on fungal communities and their roles in nutrient cycling take into account species-level responses. PMID:27881760

  2. Development of guidance on the timeliness in response to acute kidney injury warning stage test results for adults in primary care: an appropriateness ratings evaluation.

    PubMed

    Blakeman, Tom; Griffith, Kathryn; Lasserson, Dan; Lopez, Berenice; Tsang, Jung Y; Campbell, Stephen; Tomson, Charles

    2016-10-11

    Tackling the harm associated with acute kidney injury (AKI) is a global priority. In England, a national computerised AKI algorithm is being introduced across the National Health Service (NHS) to drive this change. The study sought to maximise its clinical utility and minimise the potential for burden on clinicians and patients in primary care. An appropriateness ratings evaluation using the RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method. Clinical scenarios were developed to test the timeliness in (1) communication of AKI warning stage test results from clinical pathology services to primary care, and (2) primary care clinician response to an AKI warning stage test result. A 10-person panel was purposively sampled with representation from clinical biochemistry, acute and emergency medicine and general practice. General practitioners (GPs) represented typical practice in relation to rural and urban practice, out of hours care, GP commissioning and those interested in reducing the impact of medicalisation and 'overdiagnosis'. There was agreement that delivery of AKI warning stage test results through interruptive methods of communication (ie, telephone) from laboratories to primary care was the appropriate next step for patients with an AKI warning stage 3 test result. In the context of acute illness, waiting up to 72 hours to respond to an AKI warning stage test result was deemed an inappropriate action in 62 out of the 65 (94.5%) cases. There was agreement that a clinician response was required within 6 hours, or less, in 39 out of 40 (97.5%) clinical cases relating AKI warning stage test results in the presence of moderate hyperkalaemia. The study has informed national guidance to support a timely and calibrated response to AKI warning stage test results for adults in primary care. Further research is needed to support effective implementation, with a view to examine the effect on health outcomes and costs. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  3. ATLANTIC MAMMAL TRAITS: a data set of morphological traits of mammals in the Atlantic Forest of South America.

    PubMed

    Gonçalves, Fernando; Bovendorp, Ricardo S; Beca, Gabrielle; Bello, Carolina; Costa-Pereira, Raul; Muylaert, Renata L; Rodarte, Raisa R; Villar, Nacho; Souza, Rafael; Graipel, Maurício E; Cherem, Jorge J; Faria, Deborah; Baumgarten, Julio; Alvarez, Martín R; Vieira, Emerson M; Cáceres, Nilton; Pardini, Renata; Leite, Yuri L R; Costa, Leonora P; Mello, Marco A R; Fischer, Erich; Passos, Fernando C; Varzinczak, Luiz H; Prevedello, Jayme A; Cruz-Neto, Ariovaldo P; Carvalho, Fernando; Percequillo, Alexandre R; Paviolo, Agustin; Nava, Alessandra; Duarte, José M B; de la Sancha, Noé U; Bernard, Enrico; Morato, Ronaldo G; Ribeiro, Juliana F; Becker, Rafael G; Paise, Gabriela; Tomasi, Paulo S; Vélez-Garcia, Felipe; Melo, Geruza L; Sponchiado, Jonas; Cerezer, Felipe; Barros, Marília A S; de Souza, Albérico Q S; Dos Santos, Cinthya C; Giné, Gastón A F; Kerches-Rogeri, Patricia; Weber, Marcelo M; Ambar, Guilherme; Cabrera-Martinez, Lucía V; Eriksson, Alan; Silveira, Maurício; Santos, Carolina F; Alves, Lucas; Barbier, Eder; Rezende, Gabriela C; Garbino, Guilherme S T; Rios, Élson O; Silva, Adna; Nascimento, Alexandre Túlio A; de Carvalho, Rodrigo S; Feijó, Anderson; Arrabal, Juan; Agostini, Ilaria; Lamattina, Daniela; Costa, Sebastian; Vanderhoeven, Ezequiel; de Melo, Fabiano R; de Oliveira Laroque, Plautino; Jerusalinsky, Leandro; Valença-Montenegro, Mônica M; Martins, Amely B; Ludwig, Gabriela; de Azevedo, Renata B; Anzóategui, Agustin; da Silva, Marina X; Figuerêdo Duarte Moraes, Marcela; Vogliotti, Alexandre; Gatti, Andressa; Püttker, Thomas; Barros, Camila S; Martins, Thais K; Keuroghlian, Alexine; Eaton, Donald P; Neves, Carolina L; Nardi, Marcelo S; Braga, Caryne; Gonçalves, Pablo R; Srbek-Araujo, Ana Carolina; Mendes, Poliana; de Oliveira, João A; Soares, Fábio A M; Rocha, Patrício A; Crawshaw, Peter; Ribeiro, Milton C; Galetti, Mauro

    2018-02-01

    Measures of traits are the basis of functional biological diversity. Numerous works consider mean species-level measures of traits while ignoring individual variance within species. However, there is a large amount of variation within species and it is increasingly apparent that it is important to consider trait variation not only between species, but also within species. Mammals are an interesting group for investigating trait-based approaches because they play diverse and important ecological functions (e.g., pollination, seed dispersal, predation, grazing) that are correlated with functional traits. Here we compile a data set comprising morphological and life history information of 279 mammal species from 39,850 individuals of 388 populations ranging from -5.83 to -29.75 decimal degrees of latitude and -34.82 to -56.73 decimal degrees of longitude in the Atlantic forest of South America. We present trait information from 16,840 individuals of 181 species of non-volant mammals (Rodentia, Didelphimorphia, Carnivora, Primates, Cingulata, Artiodactyla, Pilosa, Lagomorpha, Perissodactyla) and from 23,010 individuals of 98 species of volant mammals (Chiroptera). The traits reported include body mass, age, sex, reproductive stage, as well as the geographic coordinates of sampling for all taxa. Moreover, we gathered information on forearm length for bats and body length and tail length for rodents and marsupials. No copyright restrictions are associated with the use of this data set. Please cite this data paper when the data are used in publications. We also request that researchers and teachers inform us of how they are using the data. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

  4. Comparison of proposed countermeasures for dilemma zone at signalized intersections based on cellular automata simulations.

    PubMed

    Wu, Yina; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Ding, Yaoxian; Jia, Bin; Shi, Qi; Yan, Xuedong

    2018-07-01

    The Type II dilemma zone describes the road segment to a signalized intersection where drivers have difficulties to decide either stop or go at the onset of yellow signal. Such phenomenon can result in an increased crash risk at signalized intersections. Different types of warning systems have been proposed to help drivers make decisions. Although the warning systems help to improve drivers' behavior, they also have several disadvantages such as increasing rear-end crashes or red-light running (RLR) violations. In this study, a new warning system called pavement marking with auxiliary countermeasure (PMAIC) is proposed to reduce the dilemma zone and enhance the traffic safety at signalized intersections. The proposed warning system integrates the pavement marking and flashing yellow system which can provide drivers with better suggestions about stop/go decisions based on their arriving time and speed. In order to evaluate the performance of the proposed warning system, this paper presents a cellular automata (CA) simulation study. The CA simulations are conducted for four different scenarios in total, including the typical intersection without warning system, the intersection with flashing green countermeasure, the intersection with pavement marking, and the intersection with the PMAIC warning system. Before the specific CA simulation analysis, a logistic regression model is calibrated based on field video data to predict drivers' general stop/go decisions. Also, the rules of vehicle movements in the CA models under the influence by different warning systems are proposed. The proxy indicators of rear-end crash and potential RLR violations were estimated and used to evaluate safety levels for the different scenarios. The simulation results showed that the PMAIC countermeasure consistently offered best performance to reduce rear-end crash and RLR violation. Meanwhile, the results indicate that the flashing-green countermeasure could not effectively reduce either rear-end crash risk or RLR violations. Also, it is found that the pavement-marking countermeasure has positive effects on reducing the rear-end risk while it may increase the probability of RLR violation. Lastly, the implementation of the proposed warning system is discussed with the consideration of connected-vehicle technology. It is expected that the dilemma zone issues can be efficiently addressed if the proposed countermeasure can be employed within connected vehicle technology. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Global issues of genetic diversity.

    PubMed

    Vida, G

    1994-01-01

    Genetic diversity within species is highly significant during their adaptation to environmental changes and, consequently, for their long-term survival. The genetic variability of species is also the basis for the evolution of higher levels of biodiversity, the evolution of species, and it might be an indispensible prerequisite for the functioning of our biosphere. Studies which promote understanding of the maintenance and the functional aspects of biodiversity at any level are therefore essential for the future welfare of mankind.

  6. Scaling of muscle architecture and fiber types in the rat hindlimb.

    PubMed

    Eng, Carolyn M; Smallwood, Laura H; Rainiero, Maria Pia; Lahey, Michele; Ward, Samuel R; Lieber, Richard L

    2008-07-01

    The functional capacity of a muscle is determined by its architecture and metabolic properties. Although extensive analyses of muscle architecture and fiber type have been completed in a large number of muscles in numerous species, there have been few studies that have looked at the interrelationship of these functional parameters among muscles of a single species. Nor have the architectural properties of individual muscles been compared across species to understand scaling. This study examined muscle architecture and fiber type in the rat (Rattus norvegicus) hindlimb to examine each muscle's functional specialization. Discriminant analysis demonstrated that architectural properties are a greater predictor of muscle function (as defined by primary joint action and anti-gravity or non anti-gravity role) than fiber type. Architectural properties were not strictly aligned with fiber type, but when muscles were grouped according to anti-gravity versus non-anti-gravity function there was evidence of functional specialization. Specifically, anti-gravity muscles had a larger percentage of slow fiber type and increased muscle physiological cross-sectional area. Incongruities between a muscle's architecture and fiber type may reflect the variability of functional requirements on single muscles, especially those that cross multiple joints. Additionally, discriminant analysis and scaling of architectural variables in the hindlimb across several mammalian species was used to explore whether any functional patterns could be elucidated within single muscles or across muscle groups. Several muscles deviated from previously described muscle architecture scaling rules and there was large variability within functional groups in how muscles should be scaled with body size. This implies that functional demands placed on muscles across species should be examined on the single muscle level.

  7. Application of Seismic Array Processing to Tsunami Early Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    An, C.; Meng, L.

    2015-12-01

    Tsunami wave predictions of the current tsunami warning systems rely on accurate earthquake source inversions of wave height data. They are of limited effectiveness for the near-field areas since the tsunami waves arrive before data are collected. Recent seismic and tsunami disasters have revealed the need for early warning to protect near-source coastal populations. In this work we developed the basis for a tsunami warning system based on rapid earthquake source characterisation through regional seismic array back-projections. We explored rapid earthquake source imaging using onshore dense seismic arrays located at regional distances on the order of 1000 km, which provides faster source images than conventional teleseismic back-projections. We implement this method in a simulated real-time environment, and analysed the 2011 Tohoku earthquake rupture with two clusters of Hi-net stations in Kyushu and Northern Hokkaido, and the 2014 Iquique event with the Earthscope USArray Transportable Array. The results yield reasonable estimates of rupture area, which is approximated by an ellipse and leads to the construction of simple slip models based on empirical scaling of the rupture area, seismic moment and average slip. The slip model is then used as the input of the tsunami simulation package COMCOT to predict the tsunami waves. In the example of the Tohoku event, the earthquake source model can be acquired within 6 minutes from the start of rupture and the simulation of tsunami waves takes less than 2 min, which could facilitate a timely tsunami warning. The predicted arrival time and wave amplitude reasonably fit observations. Based on this method, we propose to develop an automatic warning mechanism that provides rapid near-field warning for areas of high tsunami risk. The initial focus will be Japan, Pacific Northwest and Alaska, where dense seismic networks with the capability of real-time data telemetry and open data accessibility, such as the Japanese HiNet (>800 instruments) and the Earthscope USArray Transportable Array (~400 instruments), are established.

  8. Deforestation Impacts on Bat Functional Diversity in Tropical Landscapes

    PubMed Central

    García-Morales, Rodrigo; Badano, Ernesto I.; Zuria, Iriana; Galindo-González, Jorge; Rojas-Martínez, Alberto E.; Ávila-Gómez, Eva S.

    2016-01-01

    Functional diversity is the variability in the functional roles carried out by species within ecosystems. Changes in the environment can affect this component of biodiversity and can, in turn, affect different processes, including some ecosystem services. This study aimed to determine the effect of forest loss on species richness, abundance and functional diversity of Neotropical bats. To this end, we identified six landscapes with increasing loss of forest cover in the Huasteca region of the state of Hidalgo, Mexico. We captured bats in each landscape using mist nets, and calculated functional diversity indices (functional richness and functional evenness) along with species richness and abundance. We analyzed these measures in terms of percent forest cover. We captured 906 bats (Phyllostomidae and Mormoopidae), including 10 genera and 12 species. Species richness, abundance and functional richness per night are positively related with forest cover. Generalized linear models show that species richness, abundance and functional richness per night are significantly related with forest cover, while seasonality had an effect on abundance and functional richness. Neither forest cover nor season had a significant effect on functional evenness. All these findings were consistent across three spatial scales (1, 3 and 5 km radius around sampling sites). The decrease in species, abundance and functional richness of bats with forest loss may have implications for the ecological processes they carry out such as seed dispersal, pollination and insect predation, among others. PMID:27926923

  9. The good, the bad, and the ugly: weighing the risks and benefits of seafood consumption.

    PubMed

    Morrissey, Michael T

    2006-01-01

    The health benefits that long chain omega-3 fatty acids contribute in the reduction of coronary heart disease are well established through a number of scientific publications. A number of studies are also examining their potential role in mitigating other diseases and health conditions such as Alzheimer's and mental disorders. Some of the latest research have shown the importance of omega-3 fatty acids such as docosahexaenoic acid in cognitive development in infants. Extensive scientific research and recommendations to consume fish regularly from professional societies, health organizations, and government agencies consistently support dietary guidance to consume fish regularly. Nevertheless, increasingly consumers are being warned to eliminate or minimize their consumption of certain species. The warnings, which have been issued due to risks associated with chemical contaminates such as mercury, PCB, and dioxin in fish, have received extensive coverage in news articles and stories in popular magazines. There have been a series of mixed messages to the consumer about the benefits or risks in eating seafood. In some cases, the warnings have been issued by government agencies such as the Food and Drug Administration and Environmental Protection Agency's Joint Fish Advisory on methylmercury. In other cases, the warnings have come from advocacy groups and others. Unfortunately, the advice is often miscommunicated and misunderstood by consumers. The emerging news about the benefits and risks of fish consumption will be discussed in the context of their impacts on consumer's health and well-being.

  10. Early Warning System for reducing disaster risk: the technological platform DEWETRA for the Republic of Serbia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Massabo, Marco; Molini, Luca; Kostic, Bojan; Campanella, Paolo; Stevanovic, Slavimir

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk reduction has long been recognized for its role in mitigating the negative environmental, social and economic impacts of natural hazards. Flood Early Warning System is a disaster risk reduction measure based on the capacities of institutions to observe and predict extreme hydro-meteorological events and to disseminate timely and meaningful warning information; it is furthermore based on the capacities of individuals, communities and organizations to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss. An operational definition of an Early Warning System has been suggested by ISDR - UN Office for DRR [15 January 2009]: "EWS is the set of capacities needed to generate and disseminate timely and meaningful warning information to enable individuals, communities and organizations threatened by a hazard to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss.". ISDR continues by commenting that a people-centered early warning system necessarily comprises four key elements: 1-knowledge of the risks; 2-monitoring, analysis and forecasting of the hazards; 3-communication or dissemination of alerts and warnings; and 4- local capabilities to respond to the warnings received." The technological platform DEWETRA supports the strengthening of the first three key elements of EWS suggested by ISDR definition, hence to improve the capacities to build real-time risk scenarios and to inform and warn the population in advance The technological platform DEWETRA has been implemented for the Republic of Serbia. DEWETRA is a real time-integrate system that supports decision makers for risk forecasting and monitoring and for distributing warnings to end-user and to the general public. The system is based on the rapid availability of different data that helps to establish up-to-date and reliable risk scenarios. The integration of all relevant data for risk management significantly increases the value of available information and the level of knowledge of forecasters and disaster managers. Different data, forecast and monitoring products, which are generated by different national and international institution and organizations, can be visualized and processed in real-time within the platform. DEWETRA is a web application ensuring the capillary distribution of information among institutions. The system is used as an infrastructure for exchanging and sharing data, procedures, models and expertise among the Sector of Emergency Management (SEM), the Republic Hydro-Meteorological Service of Serbia (RHMSS) and the Serbian Public Water Companies (PWCs): Serbia Waters, Vojvodina Waters and Belgrade Waters.

  11. Synergy of Earth Observation and In-Situ Monitoring Data for Flood Hazard Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brodsky, Lukas; Kodesova, Radka; Spazierova, Katerina

    2010-12-01

    In this study, we demonstrate synergy of EO and in-situ monitoring data for early warning flood hazard system in the Czech Republic developed within ESA PECS project FLOREO. The development of the demonstration system is oriented to support existing monitoring activities, especially snow melt and surface water runoff contributing to flooding events. The system consists of two main parts accordingly, the first is snow cover and snow melt monitoring driven mainly by EO data and the other is surface water runoff modeling and monitoring driven by synergy of in-situ and EO data.

  12. Range estimation techniques in single-station thunderstorm warning sensors based upon gated, wideband, magnetic direction finder technology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pifer, Alburt E.; Hiscox, William L.; Cummins, Kenneth L.; Neumann, William T.

    1991-01-01

    Gated, wideband, magnetic direction finders (DFs) were originally designed to measure the bearing of cloud-to-ground lightning relative to the sensor. A recent addition to this device uses proprietary waveform discrimination logic to select return stroke signatures and certain range dependent features in the waveform to provide an estimate of range of flashes within 50 kms. The enhanced ranging techniques are discussed which were designed and developed for use in single station thunderstorm warning sensor. Included are the results of on-going evaluations being conducted under a variety of meteorological and geographic conditions.

  13. Severe rainfall prediction systems for civil protection purposes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Comellas, A.; Llasat, M. C.; Molini, L.; Parodi, A.; Siccardi, F.

    2010-09-01

    One of the most common natural hazards impending on Mediterranean regions is the occurrence of severe weather structures able to produce heavy rainfall. Floods have killed about 1000 people across all Europe in last 10 years. With the aim of mitigating this kind of risk, quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) and rain probability forecasts are two tools nowadays available for national meteorological services and institutions responsible for weather forecasting in order to and predict rainfall, by using either the deterministic or the probabilistic approach. This study provides an insight of the different approaches used by Italian (DPC) and Catalonian (SMC) Civil Protection and the results they achieved with their peculiar issuing-system for early warnings. For the former, the analysis considers the period between 2006-2009 in which the predictive ability of the forecasting system, based on the numerical weather prediction model COSMO-I7, has been put into comparison with ground based observations (composed by more than 2000 raingauge stations, Molini et al., 2009). Italian system is mainly focused on regional-scale warnings providing forecasts for periods never shorter than 18 hours and very often have a 36-hour maximum duration . The information contained in severe weather bulletins is not quantitative and usually is referred to a specific meteorological phenomena (thunderstorms, wind gales et c.). Updates and refining have a usual refresh time of 24 hours. SMC operates within the Catalonian boundaries and uses a warning system that mixes both quantitative and probabilistic information. For each administrative region ("comarca") Catalonia is divided into, forecasters give an approximate value of the average predicted rainfall and the probability of overcoming that threshold. Usually warnings are re-issued every 6 hours and their duration depends on the predicted time extent of the storm. In order to provide a comprehensive QPF verification, the rainfall predicted by Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5), the SMC forecast operational model, is compared with the local rain gauge network for year 2008 (Comellas et al., 2010). This study presents benefits and drawbacks of both Italian and Catalonian systems. Moreover, a particular attention is paid on the link between system's predictive ability and the predicted severe weather type as a function of its space-time development.

  14. Diversity of Rainfall Thresholds for early warning of hydro-geological disasters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Luca, Davide L.; Versace, Pasquale

    2017-06-01

    For early warning of disasters induced by precipitation (such as floods and landslides), different kinds of rainfall thresholds are adopted, which vary from each other, on the basis on adopted hypotheses. In some cases, they represent the occurrence probability of an event (landslide or flood), in other cases the exceedance probability of a critical value for an assigned indicator I (a function of rainfall heights), and in further cases they only indicate the exceeding of a prefixed percentage a critical value for I, indicated as Icr. For each scheme, it is usual to define three different criticality levels (ordinary, moderate and severe), which are associated to warning levels, according to emergency plans. This work briefly discusses different schemes of rainfall thresholds, focusing attention on landslide prediction, with some applications to a real case study in Calabria region (southern Italy).

  15. Definition of rainfall thresholds for shallow landslide early warning in Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cancelliere, A.; Peres, D. J.

    2011-12-01

    Extreme rainfall is the main cause of shallow landslides. For risk mitigation, landslide early warning systems can be implemented, on the basis of rainfall monitoring and forecasting, and the use of a landslide triggering model. Several empirical, also referred to as statistical, rainfall-landslide triggering models have been proposed in the scientific literature, and used for early warning systems activated worldwide. Nonetheless, it is not clear how effective are landslide warning systems, and it is difficult to quantify the induced benefits for the implemented ones. Many rainfall thresholds have been determined through the statistical analysis of the rainfall events that have been the cause of past landslides only, thus neglecting the cases of true negatives and false positives, with negative effects on the robustness of the proposed threshold and, probably, on the effectiveness of the warning system. In the present work we address the issue of establishing warning thresholds, which, although in an approximate way, account for the related benefits. We propose the maximization of an objective function, that measures the trade-off between true and false warning issues. A ratio between the disadvantages of false positive and false negatives, not greater than one, is introduced in the function. The effect of this ratio on the determination of the thresholds is analysed. The proposed method is based on the availability of a continuous rainfall time series. In Italy, continuous rainfall time series are available from the 1920s, but practical difficulties arise for using them, as they are not published in the Hydrological Annual Reports, by the Servizio Idrografico e Mareografico Nazionale (National Hydrologic and Oceanographic Service), the manager of the most important rainfall monitoring network in Italy. However, it is possible to have a good approximation of the most intense rainfall events, in terms total rainfall, by using the data of annual maxima of precipitation for given durations, which are available in those Reports. The National Research Council's AVI database, the most complete systematic inventory of landslides events occurred in the past century in Italy, can be exploited to determine the thresholds. Hence the method has applicability for whole Italy, and uses large datasets of easy availability. As the method is based on the analysis of subdaily data, it is reliable for shallow landslides, for which low influence of antecedent precipitation on landslide triggering can be supposed. The method is illustrated through its application to case study areas in Sicily, for which there is high interest for activating early warning systems, after that the 1st October 2009 debris flow caused the loss of 37 lives and severe damage to nearby urban areas in the Peloritan Mountains.

  16. Advancing Tobacco Product Warning Labels Research Methods and Theory: A Summary of a Grantee Meeting Held by the US National Cancer Institute.

    PubMed

    Thrasher, James F; Brewer, Noel T; Niederdeppe, Jeff; Peters, Ellen; Strasser, Andrew A; Grana, Rachel; Kaufman, Annette R

    2018-02-10

    The World Health Organization's Framework Convention on Tobacco Control recommends prominent pictorial health warnings on tobacco products. To advance research methods, theory and understanding of how tobacco product warning labels (TPWLs) work, the US National Cancer Institute convened a grantee meeting. Our article describes the key insights that emerged from the meeting, situated within the context of the scientific literature. First, presentations confirmed that large, pictorial TPWLs motivate people to try to quit and encourage smoking cessation. Second, pictorial TPWLs increase attention, knowledge, negative affect, and thinking about the warning. Third, TPWL studies have primarily used brief-exposure laboratory studies and observational studies of sustained exposure through national policy implementation, with a few randomized trials involving several weeks of exposure-with generally consistent results found across study designs. Fourth, novel assessment methods include brain imaging, eye tracking and "best-worst" discrete choice experiments. To make TPWL even more effective, research is needed to confirm the mechanisms of their influence, their impact across vulnerable populations, and their effect on social media posts about tobacco products. Research is also needed on the effect of trial design choices, the predictive validity of new measurement approaches, and warning labels for non-cigarette tobacco products. To improve scientific understanding of TPWL effects, this grantee meeting summary describes emerging research methods, theory and study results. Directions for future research include examination of the mechanisms of how warning labels work across diverse tobacco products and across different populations and contexts. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco 2018. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

  17. The evolutionary ecology of the Lygaeidae

    PubMed Central

    Burdfield-Steel, Emily R; Shuker, David M

    2014-01-01

    The Lygaeidae (sensu lato) are a highly successful family of true bugs found worldwide, yet many aspects of their ecology and evolution remain obscure or unknown. While a few species have attracted considerable attention as model species for the study of insect physiology, it is only relatively recently that biologists have begun to explore aspects of their behavior, life history evolution, and patterns of intra- and interspecific ecological interactions across more species. As a result though, a range of new phenotypes and opportunities for addressing current questions in evolutionary ecology has been uncovered. For example, researchers have revealed hitherto unexpectedly rich patterns of bacterial symbiosis, begun to explore the evolutionary function of the family's complex genitalia, and also found evidence of parthenogenesis. Here we review our current understanding of the biology and ecology of the group as a whole, focusing on several of the best-studied characteristics of the group, including aposematism (i.e., the evolution of warning coloration), chemical communication, sexual selection (especially, postcopulatory sexual selection), sexual conflict, and patterns of host-endosymbiont coevolution. Importantly, many of these aspects of lygaeid biology are likely to interact, offering new avenues for research, for instance into how the evolution of aposematism influences sexual selection. With the growing availability of genomic tools for previously “non-model” organisms, combined with the relative ease of keeping many of the polyphagous species in the laboratory, we argue that these bugs offer many opportunities for behavioral and evolutionary ecologists. PMID:25360267

  18. Predicting ecosystem vulnerability to biodiversity loss from community composition.

    PubMed

    Heilpern, Sebastian A; Weeks, Brian C; Naeem, Shahid

    2018-05-01

    Ecosystems vary widely in their responses to biodiversity change, with some losing function dramatically while others are highly resilient. However, generalizations about how species- and community-level properties determine these divergent ecosystem responses have been elusive because potential sources of variation (e.g., trophic structure, compensation, functional trait diversity) are rarely evaluated in conjunction. Ecosystem vulnerability, or the likely change in ecosystem function following biodiversity change, is influenced by two types of species traits: response traits that determine species' individual sensitivities to environmental change, and effect traits that determine a species' contribution to ecosystem function. Here we extend the response-effect trait framework to quantify ecosystem vulnerability and show how trophic structure, within-trait variance, and among-trait covariance affect ecosystem vulnerability by linking extinction order and functional compensation. Using in silico trait-based simulations we found that ecosystem vulnerability increased when response and effect traits positively covaried, but this increase was attenuated by decreasing trait variance. Contrary to expectations, in these communities, both functional diversity and trophic structure increased ecosystem vulnerability. In contrast, ecosystem functions were resilient when response and effect traits covaried negatively, and variance had a positive effect on resiliency. Our results suggest that although biodiversity loss is often associated with decreases in ecosystem functions, such effects are conditional on trophic structure, and the variation within and covariation among response and effect traits. Taken together, these three factors can predict when ecosystems are poised to lose or gain function with ongoing biodiversity change. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

  19. Tree rings provide early warning signals of jack pine mortality across a moisture gradient in the southern boreal forest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mamet, S. D.; Chun, K. P.; Metsaranta, J. M.; Barr, A. G.; Johnstone, J. F.

    2015-08-01

    Recent declines in productivity and tree survival have been widely observed in boreal forests. We used early warning signals (EWS) in tree ring data to anticipate premature mortality in jack pine (Pinus banksiana)—an extensive and dominant species occurring across the moisture-limited southern boreal forest in North America. We sampled tree rings from 113 living and 84 dead trees in three soil moisture regimes (subxeric, submesic, subhygric) in central Saskatchewan, Canada. We reconstructed annual increments of tree basal area to investigate (1) whether we could detect EWS related to mortality of individual trees, and (2) how water availability and tree growth history may explain the mortality warning signs. EWS were evident as punctuated changes in growth patterns prior to transition to an alternative state of reduced growth before dying. This transition was likely triggered by a combination of severe drought and insect outbreak. Higher moisture availability associated with a soil moisture gradient did not appear to reduce tree sensitivity to stress-induced mortality. Our results suggest tree rings offer considerable potential for detecting critical transitions in tree growth, which are linked to premature mortality.

  20. Herbaceous stubble height as a warning of impending cattle grazing damage to riparian areas.

    Treesearch

    Frederick C. Hall; Larry Bryant

    1995-01-01

    Prevention of damage to riparian areas from cattle grazing is essential for sound watershed management. Various stubble heights of the most palatable species are used to predict when unacceptable impacts-heavy use or trampling, or both-are about to occur. Managers can observe stubble height and usage and recommend moving the cattle if undesirable effects from continued...

  1. Warning Signs of Lung Disease

    MedlinePlus

    ... each(function(i){ var city = $(this).find('city').text(); var state = $(this).find('state').text(); var date = $(this).find('date').text(); if ((city != "") && (state != "")){ var citystate = ' | ' + city + ', ' + state; } else ...

  2. Minimal barcode distance between two water mite species from Madeira Island: a cautionary tale.

    PubMed

    García-Jiménez, Ricardo; Horreo, Jose Luis; Valdecasas, Antonio G

    2017-06-01

    In this work, we compare morphological and molecular data in their ability to distinguish between species of water mites (Acari, Prostigmata, Hydrachnidia). We have focused on the two species of the genus Lebertia inhabiting the island of Madeira. While traditional morphological traits were initially sufficient to distinguish between these two species, the molecular data were more dependable on the kind of analysis carried out. Single arbitrary genetic distance (e.g. a K2P distance below 2%) may lead to the conclusion that the specimens under study belong to the same species. Analysing the same specimens with the coalescent model has proved the evolutionary independence of both Lebertia clades in Madeira. Furthermore, multi-rate Poisson Tree Process analysis confirmed both lineages as independent species. Our results agree with previous studies warning of the dangers of rigid species delimitation based on arbitrary molecular distances. In addition, the importance of different molecular data approaches for correct species delimitation in water mites is highlighted.

  3. Diversity of Riparian Plants among and within Species Shapes River Communities

    PubMed Central

    Jackrel, Sara L.; Wootton, J. Timothy

    2015-01-01

    Organismal diversity among and within species may affect ecosystem function with effects transmitting across ecosystem boundaries. Whether recipient communities adjust their composition, in turn, to maximize their function in response to changes in donor composition at these two scales of diversity is unknown. We use small stream communities that rely on riparian subsidies as a model system. We used leaf pack experiments to ask how variation in plants growing beside streams in the Olympic Peninsula of Washington State, USA affects stream communities via leaf subsidies. Leaves from red alder (Alnus rubra), vine maple (Acer cinereus), bigleaf maple (Acer macrophyllum) and western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla) were assembled in leaf packs to contrast low versus high diversity, and deployed in streams to compare local versus non-local leaf sources at the among and within species scales. Leaves from individuals within species decomposed at varying rates; most notably thin leaves decomposed rapidly. Among deciduous species, vine maple decomposed most rapidly, harbored the least algal abundance, and supported the greatest diversity of aquatic invertebrates, while bigleaf maple was at the opposite extreme for these three metrics. Recipient communities decomposed leaves from local species rapidly: leaves from early successional plants decomposed rapidly in stream reaches surrounded by early successional forest and leaves from later successional plants decomposed rapidly adjacent to later successional forest. The species diversity of leaves inconsistently affected decomposition, algal abundance and invertebrate metrics. Intraspecific diversity of leaf packs also did not affect decomposition or invertebrate diversity. However, locally sourced alder leaves decomposed more rapidly and harbored greater levels of algae than leaves sourced from conspecifics growing in other areas on the Olympic Peninsula, but did not harbor greater aquatic invertebrate diversity. In contrast to alder, local intraspecific differences via decomposition, algal or invertebrate metrics were not observed consistently among maples. These results emphasize that biodiversity of riparian subsidies at the within and across species scale have the potential to affect aquatic ecosystems, although there are complex species-specific effects. PMID:26539714

  4. Diversity of Riparian Plants among and within Species Shapes River Communities.

    PubMed

    Jackrel, Sara L; Wootton, J Timothy

    2015-01-01

    Organismal diversity among and within species may affect ecosystem function with effects transmitting across ecosystem boundaries. Whether recipient communities adjust their composition, in turn, to maximize their function in response to changes in donor composition at these two scales of diversity is unknown. We use small stream communities that rely on riparian subsidies as a model system. We used leaf pack experiments to ask how variation in plants growing beside streams in the Olympic Peninsula of Washington State, USA affects stream communities via leaf subsidies. Leaves from red alder (Alnus rubra), vine maple (Acer cinereus), bigleaf maple (Acer macrophyllum) and western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla) were assembled in leaf packs to contrast low versus high diversity, and deployed in streams to compare local versus non-local leaf sources at the among and within species scales. Leaves from individuals within species decomposed at varying rates; most notably thin leaves decomposed rapidly. Among deciduous species, vine maple decomposed most rapidly, harbored the least algal abundance, and supported the greatest diversity of aquatic invertebrates, while bigleaf maple was at the opposite extreme for these three metrics. Recipient communities decomposed leaves from local species rapidly: leaves from early successional plants decomposed rapidly in stream reaches surrounded by early successional forest and leaves from later successional plants decomposed rapidly adjacent to later successional forest. The species diversity of leaves inconsistently affected decomposition, algal abundance and invertebrate metrics. Intraspecific diversity of leaf packs also did not affect decomposition or invertebrate diversity. However, locally sourced alder leaves decomposed more rapidly and harbored greater levels of algae than leaves sourced from conspecifics growing in other areas on the Olympic Peninsula, but did not harbor greater aquatic invertebrate diversity. In contrast to alder, local intraspecific differences via decomposition, algal or invertebrate metrics were not observed consistently among maples. These results emphasize that biodiversity of riparian subsidies at the within and across species scale have the potential to affect aquatic ecosystems, although there are complex species-specific effects.

  5. Pre-hospital National Early Warning Score (NEWS) is associated with in-hospital mortality and critical care unit admission: A cohort study.

    PubMed

    Abbott, Tom E F; Cron, Nicholas; Vaid, Nidhi; Ip, Dorothy; Torrance, Hew D T; Emmanuel, Julian

    2018-03-01

    National Early Warning Score (NEWS) is increasingly used in UK hospitals. However, there is only limited evidence to support the use of pre-hospital early warning scores. We hypothesised that pre-hospital NEWS was associated with death or critical care escalation within the first 48 h of hospital stay. Planned secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study at a single UK teaching hospital. Consecutive medical ward admissions over a 20-day period were included in the study. Data were collected from ambulance report forms, medical notes and electronic patient records. Pre-hospital NEWS was calculated retrospectively. The primary outcome was a composite of death or critical care unit escalation within 48 h of hospital admission. The secondary outcome was length of hospital stay. 189 patients were included in the analysis. The median pre-hospital NEWS was 3 (IQR 1-5). 13 patients (6.9%) died or were escalated to the critical care unit within 48 h of hospital admission. Pre-hospital NEWS was associated with death or critical care unit escalation (OR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.04-1.51; p = 0.02), but NEWS on admission to hospital was more strongly associated with this outcome (OR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.18-1.97, p < 0.01). Neither was associated with hospital length of stay. Pre-hospital NEWS was associated with death or critical care unit escalation within 48 h of hospital admission. NEWS could be used by ambulance crews to assist in the early triage of patients requiring hospital treatment or rapid transport. Further cohort studies or trials in large samples are required before implementation.

  6. Istanbul Earthquake Early Warning and Rapid Response System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erdik, M. O.; Fahjan, Y.; Ozel, O.; Alcik, H.; Aydin, M.; Gul, M.

    2003-12-01

    As part of the preparations for the future earthquake in Istanbul a Rapid Response and Early Warning system in the metropolitan area is in operation. For the Early Warning system ten strong motion stations were installed as close as possible to the fault zone. Continuous on-line data from these stations via digital radio modem provide early warning for potentially disastrous earthquakes. Considering the complexity of fault rupture and the short fault distances involved, a simple and robust Early Warning algorithm, based on the exceedance of specified threshold time domain amplitude levels is implemented. The band-pass filtered accelerations and the cumulative absolute velocity (CAV) are compared with specified threshold levels. When any acceleration or CAV (on any channel) in a given station exceeds specific threshold values it is considered a vote. Whenever we have 2 station votes within selectable time interval, after the first vote, the first alarm is declared. In order to specify the appropriate threshold levels a data set of near field strong ground motions records form Turkey and the world has been analyzed. Correlations among these thresholds in terms of the epicenter distance the magnitude of the earthquake have been studied. The encrypted early warning signals will be communicated to the respective end users by UHF systems through a "service provider" company. The users of the early warning signal will be power and gas companies, nuclear research facilities, critical chemical factories, subway system and several high-rise buildings. Depending on the location of the earthquake (initiation of fault rupture) and the recipient facility the alarm time can be as high as about 8s. For the rapid response system one hundred 18 bit-resolution strong motion accelerometers were placed in quasi-free field locations (basement of small buildings) in the populated areas of the city, within an area of approximately 50x30km, to constitute a network that will enable early damage assessment and rapid response information after a damaging earthquake. Early response information is achieved through fast acquisition and analysis of processed data obtained from the network. The stations are routinely interrogated on regular basis by the main data center. After triggered by an earthquake, each station processes the streaming strong motion data to yield the spectral accelerations at specific periods, 12Hz filtered PGA and PGV and will send these parameters in the form of SMS messages at every 20s directly to the main data center through a designated GSM network and through a microwave system. A shake map and damage distribution map (using aggregate building inventories and fragility curves) will be automatically generated using the algorithm developed for this purpose. Loss assessment studies are complemented by a large citywide digital database on the topography, geology, soil conditions, building, infrastructure and lifeline inventory. The shake and damage maps will be conveyed to the governor's and mayor's offices, fire, police and army headquarters within 3 minutes using radio modem and GPRS communication. An additional forty strong motion recorders were placed on important structures in several interconnected clusters to monitor the health of these structures after a damaging earthquake.

  7. Functional decay in tree community within tropical fragmented landscapes: Effects of landscape-scale forest cover.

    PubMed

    Rocha-Santos, Larissa; Benchimol, Maíra; Mayfield, Margaret M; Faria, Deborah; Pessoa, Michaele S; Talora, Daniela C; Mariano-Neto, Eduardo; Cazetta, Eliana

    2017-01-01

    As tropical rainforests are cleared, forest remnants are increasingly isolated within agricultural landscapes. Understanding how forest loss impacts on species diversity can, therefore, contribute to identifying the minimum amount of habitat required for biodiversity maintenance in human-modified landscapes. Here, we evaluate how the amount of forest cover, at the landscape scale, affects patterns of species richness, abundance, key functional traits and common taxonomic families of adult trees in twenty Brazilian Atlantic rainforest landscapes. We found that as forest cover decreases, both tree community richness and abundance decline, without exhibiting a threshold. At the family-level, species richness and abundance of the Myrtaceae and Sapotaceae were also negatively impacted by the percent forest remaining at the landscape scale. For functional traits, we found a reduction in shade-tolerant, animal-dispersed and small-seeded species following a decrease in the amount of forest retained in landscapes. These results suggest that the amount of forest in a landscape is driving non-random losses in phylogenetic and functional tree diversity in Brazil's remaining Atlantic rainforests. Our study highlights potential restraints on the conservation value of Atlantic rainforest remnants in deforested landscapes in the future.

  8. Contrasting patterns of leaf trait variation among and within species during tropical dry forest succession in Costa Rica.

    PubMed

    Derroire, Géraldine; Powers, Jennifer S; Hulshof, Catherine M; Cárdenas Varela, Luis E; Healey, John R

    2018-01-10

    A coordinated response to environmental drivers amongst individual functional traits is central to the plant strategy concept. However, whether the trait co-ordination observed at the global scale occurs at other ecological scales (especially within species) remains an open question. Here, for sapling communities of two tropical dry forest types in Costa Rica, we show large differences amongst traits in the relative contribution of species turnover and intraspecific variation to their directional changes in response to environmental changes along a successional gradient. We studied the response of functional traits associated with the leaf economics spectrum and drought tolerance using intensive sampling to analyse inter- and intra-specific responses to environmental changes and ontogeny. Although the overall functional composition of the sapling communities changed during succession more through species turnover than through intraspecific trait variation, their relative contributions differed greatly amongst traits. For instance, community mean specific leaf area changed mostly due to intraspecific variation. Traits of the leaf economics spectrum showed decoupled responses to environmental drivers and ontogeny. These findings emphasise how divergent ecological mechanisms combine to cause great differences in changes of individual functional traits over environmental gradients and ecological scales.

  9. Functional decay in tree community within tropical fragmented landscapes: Effects of landscape-scale forest cover

    PubMed Central

    Benchimol, Maíra; Mayfield, Margaret M.; Faria, Deborah; Pessoa, Michaele S.; Talora, Daniela C.; Mariano-Neto, Eduardo; Cazetta, Eliana

    2017-01-01

    As tropical rainforests are cleared, forest remnants are increasingly isolated within agricultural landscapes. Understanding how forest loss impacts on species diversity can, therefore, contribute to identifying the minimum amount of habitat required for biodiversity maintenance in human-modified landscapes. Here, we evaluate how the amount of forest cover, at the landscape scale, affects patterns of species richness, abundance, key functional traits and common taxonomic families of adult trees in twenty Brazilian Atlantic rainforest landscapes. We found that as forest cover decreases, both tree community richness and abundance decline, without exhibiting a threshold. At the family-level, species richness and abundance of the Myrtaceae and Sapotaceae were also negatively impacted by the percent forest remaining at the landscape scale. For functional traits, we found a reduction in shade-tolerant, animal-dispersed and small-seeded species following a decrease in the amount of forest retained in landscapes. These results suggest that the amount of forest in a landscape is driving non-random losses in phylogenetic and functional tree diversity in Brazil’s remaining Atlantic rainforests. Our study highlights potential restraints on the conservation value of Atlantic rainforest remnants in deforested landscapes in the future. PMID:28403166

  10. Driving in traffic: short-range sensing for urban collision avoidance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thorpe, Chuck E.; Duggins, David F.; Gowdy, Jay W.; MacLaughlin, Rob; Mertz, Christoph; Siegel, Mel; Suppe, Arne; Wang, Chieh-Chih; Yata, Teruko

    2002-07-01

    Intelligent vehicles are beginning to appear on the market, but so far their sensing and warning functions only work on the open road. Functions such as runoff-road warning or adaptive cruise control are designed for the uncluttered environments of open highways. We are working on the much more difficult problem of sensing and driver interfaces for driving in urban areas. We need to sense cars and pedestrians and curbs and fire plugs and bicycles and lamp posts; we need to predict the paths of our own vehicle and of other moving objects; and we need to decide when to issue alerts or warnings to both the driver of our own vehicle and (potentially) to nearby pedestrians. No single sensor is currently able to detect and track all relevant objects. We are working with radar, ladar, stereo vision, and a novel light-stripe range sensor. We have installed a subset of these sensors on a city bus, driving through the streets of Pittsburgh on its normal runs. We are using different kinds of data fusion for different subsets of sensors, plus a coordinating framework for mapping objects at an abstract level.

  11. Flood Warning and Forecasting System in Slovakia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leskova, Danica

    2016-04-01

    In 2015, it finished project Flood Warning and Forecasting System (POVAPSYS) as part of the flood protection in Slovakia till 2010. The aim was to build POVAPSYS integrated computerized flood forecasting and warning system. It took a qualitatively higher level of output meteorological and hydrological services in case of floods affecting large territorial units, as well as local flood events. It is further unfolding demands on performance and coordination of meteorological and hydrological services, troubleshooting observation, evaluation of data, fast communication, modeling and forecasting of meteorological and hydrological processes. Integration of all information entering and exiting to and from the project POVAPSYS provides Hydrological Flood Forecasting System (HYPOS). The system provides information on the current hydrometeorological situation and its evolution with the generation of alerts and notifications in case of exceeding predefined thresholds. HYPOS's functioning of the system requires flawless operability in critical situations while minimizing the loss of its key parts. HYPOS is a core part of the project POVAPSYS, it is a comprehensive software solutions based on a modular principle, providing data and processed information including alarms, in real time. In order to achieve full functionality of the system, in proposal, we have put emphasis on reliability, robustness, availability and security.

  12. On the Mass Distribution of Animal Species

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Redner, Sidney; Clauset, Aaron; Schwab, David

    2009-03-01

    We develop a simple diffusion-reaction model to account for the broad and asymmetric distribution of adult body masses for species within related taxonomic groups. The model assumes three basic evolutionary features that control body mass: (i) a fixed lower limit that is set by metabolic constraints, (ii) a species extinction risk that is a weakly increasing function of body mass, and (iii) cladogenetic diffusion, in which daughter species have a slight tendency toward larger mass. The steady-state solution for the distribution of species masses in this model can be expressed in terms of the Airy function. This solution gives mass distributions that are in good agreement with data on 4002 terrestrial mammal species from the late Quaternary and 8617 extant bird species.

  13. Effectiveness and acceptance of the intelligent speeding prediction system (ISPS).

    PubMed

    Zhao, Guozhen; Wu, Changxu

    2013-03-01

    The intelligent speeding prediction system (ISPS) is an in-vehicle speed assistance system developed to provide quantitative predictions of speeding. Although the ISPS's prediction of speeding has been validated, whether the ISPS can regulate a driver's speed behavior or whether a driver accepts the ISPS needs further investigation. Additionally, compared to the existing intelligent speed adaptation (ISA) system, whether the ISPS performs better in terms of reducing excessive speeds and improving driving safety needs more direct evidence. An experiment was conducted to assess and compare the effectiveness and acceptance of the ISPS and the ISA. We conducted a driving simulator study with 40 participants. System type served as a between-subjects variable with four levels: no speed assistance system, pre-warning system developed based on the ISPS, post-warning system ISA, and combined pre-warning and ISA system. Speeding criterion served as a within-subjects variable with two levels: lower (posted speed limit plus 1 mph) and higher (posted speed limit plus 5 mph) speed threshold. Several aspects of the participants' driving speed, speeding measures, lead vehicle response, and subjective measures were collected. Both pre-warning and combined systems led to greater minimum time-to-collision. The combined system resulted in slower driving speed, fewer speeding exceedances, shorter speeding duration, and smaller speeding magnitude. The results indicate that both pre-warning and combined systems have the potential to improve driving safety and performance. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Forward Collision Warning: Clues to Optimal Timing of Advisory Warnings

    PubMed Central

    Aksan, Nazan; Sager, Lauren; Hacker, Sarah; Marini, Robert; Dawson, Jeffrey; Anderson, Steven; Rizzo, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    We examined the effectiveness of a heads-up Forward Collision Warning (FCW) system in 39 younger to middle aged drivers (25-50, mean = 35 years) and 37 older drivers (66-87, mean = 77 years). The warnings were implemented in a fixed based, immersive, 180 degree forward field of view simulator. The FCW included a visual advisory component consisting of a red horizontal bar which flashed in the center screen of the simulator that was triggered at time-to-collision (TTC) 4 seconds. The bar roughly overlapped the rear bumper of the lead vehicle, just below the driver's line-of-sight. A sustained auditory tone (~80 dB) was activated at TTC=2 to alert the driver to an imminent collision. Hence, the warning system differed from the industry standard in significant ways. 95% Confidence intervals for the safety gains ranged from −.03 to .19 seconds in terms of average correction time across several activations. Older and younger adults did not differ in terms of safety gains. Closer inspection of data revealed that younger to middle aged drivers were already braking (42%) on a larger proportion of FCW activations than older drivers (26%), p < .001. Conversely, older drivers were still accelerating (38%) on a larger proportion of FCW activations than younger to middle aged drivers (23%) at the time FCW was activated, p < .009. There were no differences in the proportion of activations when drivers were coasting at the time FCW was activated, p = .240. Furthermore, large individual differences in basic visual, motor, and cognitive function predicted the tendency to brake prior to FCW activation. Those who tended to be better functioning in each of these domains were more likely to be already braking prior to FCW activation at the fixed threshold of TTC=4. These findings suggest optimal timing for advisory alerts for forward events may need to be larger than TTC=4. PMID:27648455

  15. Specific arrangements of species dominance can be more influential than evenness in maintaining ecosystem process and function

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wohlgemuth, Daniel; Solan, Martin; Godbold, Jasmin A.

    2016-12-01

    The ecological consequences of species loss are widely studied, but represent an end point of environmental forcing that is not always realised. Changes in species evenness and the rank order of dominant species are more widespread responses to directional forcing. However, despite the repercussions for ecosystem functioning such changes have received little attention. Here, we experimentally assess how the rearrangement of species dominance structure within specific levels of evenness, rather than changes in species richness and composition, affect invertebrate particle reworking and burrow ventilation behaviour - important moderators of microbial-mediated remineralisation processes in benthic environments - and associated levels of sediment nutrient release. We find that the most dominant species exert a disproportionate influence on functioning at low levels of evenness, but that changes in biomass distribution and a change in emphasis in species-environmental interactions become more important in governing system functionality as evenness increases. Our study highlights the need to consider the functional significance of alterations to community attributes, rather than to solely focus on the attainment of particular levels of diversity when safeguarding biodiversity and ecosystems that provide essential services to society.

  16. Within compound, from Guard Tower, looking southeast, Power Plant (Building ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    Within compound, from Guard Tower, looking southeast, Power Plant (Building 5761) to left, Satellite Communications Terminal (Building 5771) center, Supply Warehouse (Building 5768) to left - Beale Air Force Base, Perimeter Acquisition Vehicle Entry Phased-Array Warning System, End of Spencer Paul Road, north of Warren Shingle Road (14th Street), Marysville, Yuba County, CA

  17. THE TSUNAMI SERVICE BUS, AN INTEGRATION PLATFORM FOR HETEROGENEOUS SENSOR SYSTEMS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fleischer, J.; Häner, R.; Herrnkind, S.; Kriegel, U.; Schwarting, H.; Wächter, J.

    2009-12-01

    The Tsunami Service Bus (TSB) is the sensor integration platform of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) [1]. The primary goal of GITEWS is to deliver reliable tsunami warnings as fast as possible. This is achieved on basis of various sensor systems like seismometers, ocean instrumentation, and GPS stations, all providing fundamental data to support prediction of tsunami wave propagation by the GITEWS warning center. However, all these sensors come with their own proprietary data formats and specific behavior. Also new sensor types might be added, old sensors will be replaced. To keep GITEWS flexible the TSB was developed in order to access and control sensors in a uniform way. To meet these requirements the TSB follows the architectural blueprint of a Service Oriented Architecture (SOA). The integration platform implements dedicated services communicating via a service infrastructure. The functionality required for early warnings is provided by loosely coupled services replacing the "hard-wired" coupling at data level. Changes in the sensor specification are confined to the data level without affecting the warning center. Great emphasis was laid on following the Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) standard [2], specified by the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) [3]. As a result the full functionality needed in GITEWS could be achieved by implementing the four SWE services: The Sensor Observation Service for retrieving sensor measurements, the Sensor Alert Service in order to deliver sensor alerts, the Sensor Planning Service for tasking sensors, and the Web Notification Service for conduction messages to various media channels. Beyond these services the TSB also follows SWE Observation & Measurements specifications (O&M) for data encoding and Sensor Model Language (SensorML) for meta information. Moreover, accessing sensors via the TSB is not restricted to GITEWS. Multiple instances of the TSB can be composed to realize federate warning system. Beside the already operating TSB at the BMKG warning center [4], two other organizations in Indonesia ([5], [6]) consider using the TSB, making their data centers available to GITEWS. The presentation takes a look at the concepts and implementation and reflects the usefulness of the mentioned standards. REFERENCES [1] GITEWS is a project of the German Federal Government to aid the recon¬struction of the tsunami-prone region of the Indian Ocean, http://www.gitews.org/ [2] SWE, www.opengeospatial.org/projects/groups/sensorweb [3] OGC, www.opengeospatial.org [4] Meteorological and Geophysical Agency of Indonesia (BMKG), www.bmg.go.id [5] National Coordinating Agency for Surveys and Mapping (BAKOSURTANAL), www.bakosurtanal.go.id [6] Agency for the Assessment & Application of Technology (BPPT), www.bppt.go.id

  18. Bacterial biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relations are modified by environmental complexity.

    PubMed

    Langenheder, Silke; Bulling, Mark T; Solan, Martin; Prosser, James I

    2010-05-26

    With the recognition that environmental change resulting from anthropogenic activities is causing a global decline in biodiversity, much attention has been devoted to understanding how changes in biodiversity may alter levels of ecosystem functioning. Although environmental complexity has long been recognised as a major driving force in evolutionary processes, it has only recently been incorporated into biodiversity-ecosystem functioning investigations. Environmental complexity is expected to strengthen the positive effect of species richness on ecosystem functioning, mainly because it leads to stronger complementarity effects, such as resource partitioning and facilitative interactions among species when the number of available resource increases. Here we implemented an experiment to test the combined effect of species richness and environmental complexity, more specifically, resource richness on ecosystem functioning over time. We show, using all possible combinations of species within a bacterial community consisting of six species, and all possible combinations of three substrates, that diversity-functioning (metabolic activity) relationships change over time from linear to saturated. This was probably caused by a combination of limited complementarity effects and negative interactions among competing species as the experiment progressed. Even though species richness and resource richness both enhanced ecosystem functioning, they did so independently from each other. Instead there were complex interactions between particular species and substrate combinations. Our study shows clearly that both species richness and environmental complexity increase ecosystem functioning. The finding that there was no direct interaction between these two factors, but that instead rather complex interactions between combinations of certain species and resources underlie positive biodiversity ecosystem functioning relationships, suggests that detailed knowledge of how individual species interact with complex natural environments will be required in order to make reliable predictions about how altered levels of biodiversity will most likely affect ecosystem functioning.

  19. Bacterial Biodiversity-Ecosystem Functioning Relations Are Modified by Environmental Complexity

    PubMed Central

    Langenheder, Silke; Bulling, Mark T.; Solan, Martin; Prosser, James I.

    2010-01-01

    Background With the recognition that environmental change resulting from anthropogenic activities is causing a global decline in biodiversity, much attention has been devoted to understanding how changes in biodiversity may alter levels of ecosystem functioning. Although environmental complexity has long been recognised as a major driving force in evolutionary processes, it has only recently been incorporated into biodiversity-ecosystem functioning investigations. Environmental complexity is expected to strengthen the positive effect of species richness on ecosystem functioning, mainly because it leads to stronger complementarity effects, such as resource partitioning and facilitative interactions among species when the number of available resource increases. Methodology/Principal Findings Here we implemented an experiment to test the combined effect of species richness and environmental complexity, more specifically, resource richness on ecosystem functioning over time. We show, using all possible combinations of species within a bacterial community consisting of six species, and all possible combinations of three substrates, that diversity-functioning (metabolic activity) relationships change over time from linear to saturated. This was probably caused by a combination of limited complementarity effects and negative interactions among competing species as the experiment progressed. Even though species richness and resource richness both enhanced ecosystem functioning, they did so independently from each other. Instead there were complex interactions between particular species and substrate combinations. Conclusions/Significance Our study shows clearly that both species richness and environmental complexity increase ecosystem functioning. The finding that there was no direct interaction between these two factors, but that instead rather complex interactions between combinations of certain species and resources underlie positive biodiversity ecosystem functioning relationships, suggests that detailed knowledge of how individual species interact with complex natural environments will be required in order to make reliable predictions about how altered levels of biodiversity will most likely affect ecosystem functioning. PMID:20520808

  20. Perceptions and Perceived Impact of Graphic Cigarette Health Warning Labels on Smoking Behavior Among U.S. Young Adults

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Introduction: In 2011, the Food and Drug Administration published a final rule requiring cigarette packages and advertisements to include graphic health warning labels (HWLs) with new warning statements. Implementation of this rule has been stalled by legal challenge. This study assessed correlates of smoking-related intentions related to graphic HWLs among current cigarette smokers and nonsmokers in a national sample of U.S. young adults aged 18–34. Methods: Data were collected from 4,236 participants aged 18–34 using an online panel in January 2012 for the Legacy Young Adult Cohort Study. Analyses were weighted to provide nationally representative estimates. Our main outcome was assessed with a single item: “Do you think that new warning labels with graphic pictures would make you think about not smoking?” Results: Twenty-two percent of the young adults were current cigarette smokers. Fifty-three percent endorsed that new graphic HWLs would make them think about not smoking (40% among current smokers compared with 56% among nonsmokers). Among nonsmokers, those aged 18–24, females, Hispanics, and those who were aware of graphic cigarette HWLs were more likely to report intention to not smoke related to graphic HWLs. Among current smokers, intending to quit within the next 6 months was correlated with intention resulting from graphic HWLs. Hispanic ethnicity and intention to quit within 30 days were strong correlates of intention in light, nondaily, and self-identified social/occasional smokers. Conclusions: This study supports previous findings that graphic HWLs play an important role in preventing smoking, in addition to encouraging cessation in young adults. PMID:24212476

  1. Sown species richness and realized diversity can influence functioning of plant communities differently.

    PubMed

    Rychtecká, Terezie; Lanta, Vojtěch; Weiterová, Iva; Lepš, Jan

    2014-08-01

    Biodiversity-ecosystem functioning experiments (BEF) typically manipulate sown species richness and composition of experimental communities to study ecosystem functioning as a response to changes in diversity. If sown species richness is taken as a measure of diversity and aboveground biomass production as a measure of community functioning, then this relationship is usually found to be positive. The sown species richness can be considered the equivalent of a local species pool in natural communities. However, in addition to species richness, realized diversity is also an important community diversity component. Realized diversity is affected by environmental filtering and biotic interactions operating within a community. As both sown species richness and the realized diversity in BEF studies (as well as local species pool vs observed realized richness in natural communities) can differ markedly, so can their effects on the community functioning. We tested this assumption using two data sets: data from a short-term pot experiment and data from the long-term Jena biodiversity plot experiment. We considered three possible predictors of community functioning (aboveground biomass production): sown species richness, realized diversity (defined as inverse of Simpson dominance index), and survivor species richness. Sown species richness affected biomass production positively in all cases. Realized diversity as well as survivor species richness had positive effects on biomass in approximately half of cases. When realized diversity or survivor species richness was tested together with sown species richness, their partial effects were none or negative. Our results suggest that we can expect positive diversity-productivity relationship when the local species pool size is the decisive factor determining realized observed diversity; in other cases, the shape of the diversity-functioning relationship may be quite opposite.

  2. Plastoglobules in algae: A comprehensive comparative study of the presence of major structural and functional components in complex plastids.

    PubMed

    Lohscheider, Jens N; Río Bártulos, Carolina

    2016-08-01

    Plastoglobules (PG) are lipophilic droplets attached to thylakoid membranes in higher plants and green algae and are implicated in prenyl lipid biosynthesis. They might also represent a central hub for integration of plastid signals under stress and therefore the adaptation of the thylakoid membrane under such conditions. In Arabidopsis thaliana, PG contain around 30 specific proteins of which Fibrillins (FBN) and Activity of bc1 complex kinases (ABC1K) represent the majority with respect to both number and protein mass. However, nothing is known about the presence of PG in most algal species, which are responsible for about 50% of global primary production. Therefore, we searched the genomes of publicly available algal genomes for components of PG and the associated functional network in order to predict their presence and potential evolutionary conservation of physiological functions. We could identify homologous sequences for core components of PG, like FBN and ABC1K, in most investigated algal species. Furthermore, proteins at central and interesting positions within the PG functional coexpression network were identified. Phylogenetic sequence analysis revealed diversity within FBN and ABC1K sequences among algal species with complex plastids of the red lineage and large differences compared with green lineage species. Two types of FBN were detected that differ in their isoelectric point which seems to correlate with subcellular localization. Subgroups of FBN were shared between many investigated species and modeling of their 3D-structure implied a conserved structure. FBN and ABC1K are essential structural and functional components of PG. Their occurrence in investigated algal species suggests presence of PG therein and functions in prenyl lipid metabolism and adaptation of the thylakoid membrane that are conserved during evolution. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Identification and Resolution of Microdiversity through Metagenomic Sequencing of Parallel Consortia

    PubMed Central

    Maezato, Yukari; Wu, Yu-Wei; Romine, Margaret F.; Lindemann, Stephen R.

    2015-01-01

    To gain a predictive understanding of the interspecies interactions within microbial communities that govern community function, the genomic complement of every member population must be determined. Although metagenomic sequencing has enabled the de novo reconstruction of some microbial genomes from environmental communities, microdiversity confounds current genome reconstruction techniques. To overcome this issue, we performed short-read metagenomic sequencing on parallel consortia, defined as consortia cultivated under the same conditions from the same natural community with overlapping species composition. The differences in species abundance between the two consortia allowed reconstruction of near-complete (at an estimated >85% of gene complement) genome sequences for 17 of the 20 detected member species. Two Halomonas spp. indistinguishable by amplicon analysis were found to be present within the community. In addition, comparison of metagenomic reads against the consensus scaffolds revealed within-species variation for one of the Halomonas populations, one of the Rhodobacteraceae populations, and the Rhizobiales population. Genomic comparison of these representative instances of inter- and intraspecies microdiversity suggests differences in functional potential that may result in the expression of distinct roles in the community. In addition, isolation and complete genome sequence determination of six member species allowed an investigation into the sensitivity and specificity of genome reconstruction processes, demonstrating robustness across a wide range of sequence coverage (9× to 2,700×) within the metagenomic data set. PMID:26497460

  4. Identification and Resolution of Microdiversity through Metagenomic Sequencing of Parallel Consortia

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Nelson, William C.; Maezato, Yukari; Wu, Yu-Wei

    2015-10-23

    To gain a predictive understanding of the interspecies interactions within microbial communities that govern community function, the genomic complement of every member population must be determined. Although metagenomic sequencing has enabled thede novoreconstruction of some microbial genomes from environmental communities, microdiversity confounds current genome reconstruction techniques. To overcome this issue, we performed short-read metagenomic sequencing on parallel consortia, defined as consortia cultivated under the same conditions from the same natural community with overlapping species composition. The differences in species abundance between the two consortia allowed reconstruction of near-complete (at an estimated >85% of gene complement) genome sequences for 17 ofmore » the 20 detected member species. TwoHalomonasspp. indistinguishable by amplicon analysis were found to be present within the community. In addition, comparison of metagenomic reads against the consensus scaffolds revealed within-species variation for one of theHalomonaspopulations, one of theRhodobacteraceaepopulations, and theRhizobialespopulation. Genomic comparison of these representative instances of inter- and intraspecies microdiversity suggests differences in functional potential that may result in the expression of distinct roles in the community. In addition, isolation and complete genome sequence determination of six member species allowed an investigation into the sensitivity and specificity of genome reconstruction processes, demonstrating robustness across a wide range of sequence coverage (9× to 2,700×) within the metagenomic data set.« less

  5. Assessing the relationships between phylogenetic and functional singularities in sharks (Chondrichthyes).

    PubMed

    Cachera, Marie; Le Loc'h, François

    2017-08-01

    The relationships between diversity and ecosystem functioning have become a major focus of science. A crucial issue is to estimate functional diversity, as it is intended to impact ecosystem dynamics and stability. However, depending on the ecosystem, it may be challenging or even impossible to directly measure ecological functions and thus functional diversity. Phylogenetic diversity was recently under consideration as a proxy for functional diversity. Phylogenetic diversity is indeed supposed to match functional diversity if functions are conservative traits along evolution. However, in case of adaptive radiation and/or evolutive convergence, a mismatch may appear between species phylogenetic and functional singularities. Using highly threatened taxa, sharks, this study aimed to explore the relationships between phylogenetic and functional diversities and singularities. Different statistical computations were used in order to test both methodological issue (phylogenetic reconstruction) and overall a theoretical questioning: the predictive power of phylogeny for function diversity. Despite these several methodological approaches, a mismatch between phylogeny and function was highlighted. This mismatch revealed that (i) functions are apparently nonconservative in shark species, and (ii) phylogenetic singularity is not a proxy for functional singularity. Functions appeared to be not conservative along the evolution of sharks, raising the conservational challenge to identify and protect both phylogenetic and functional singular species. Facing the current rate of species loss, it is indeed of major importance to target phylogenetically singular species to protect genetic diversity and also functionally singular species in order to maintain particular functions within ecosystem.

  6. Invasive carnivores alter ecological function and enhance complementarity in scavenger assemblages on ocean beaches.

    PubMed

    Brown, Marion B; Schlacher, Thomas A; Schoeman, David S; Weston, Michael A; Huijbers, Chantal M; Olds, Andrew D; Connolly, Rod M

    2015-10-01

    Species composition is expected to alter ecological function in assemblages if species traits differ strongly. Such effects are often large and persistent for nonnative carnivores invading islands. Alternatively, high similarity in traits within assemblages creates a degree of functional redundancy in ecosystems. Here we tested whether species turnover results in functional ecological equivalence or complementarity, and whether invasive carnivores on islands significantly alter such ecological function. The model system consisted of vertebrate scavengers (dominated by raptors) foraging on animal carcasses on ocean beaches on two Australian islands, one with and one without invasive red foxes (Vulpes vulpes). Partitioning of scavenging events among species, carcass removal rates, and detection speeds were quantified using camera traps baited with fish carcasses at the dune-beach interface. Complete segregation of temporal foraging niches between mammals (nocturnal) and birds (diurnal) reflects complementarity in carrion utilization. Conversely, functional redundancy exists within the bird guild where several species of raptors dominate carrion removal in a broadly similar way. As predicted, effects of red foxes were large. They substantially changed the nature and rate of the scavenging process in the system: (1) foxes consumed over half (55%) of all carrion available at night, compared with negligible mammalian foraging at night on the fox-free island, and (2) significant shifts in the composition of the scavenger assemblages consuming beach-cast carrion are the consequence of fox invasion at one island. Arguably, in the absence of other mammalian apex predators, the addition of red foxes creates a new dimension of functional complementarity in beach food webs. However, this functional complementarity added by foxes is neither benign nor neutral, as marine carrion subsidies to coastal red fox populations are likely to facilitate their persistence as exotic carnivores.

  7. Functional diversity patterns of abyssal nematodes in the Eastern Mediterranean: A comparison between cold seeps and typical deep sea sediments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalogeropoulou, V.; Keklikoglou, K.; Lampadariou, N.

    2015-04-01

    Spatial patterns in deep sea nematode biological trait composition and functional diversity were investigated between chemosynthetic and typical deep sea ecosystems as well as between different microhabitats within the chemosynthetic ecosystems, in the Eastern Mediterranean. The chemosynthetic ecosystems chosen were two mud volcanoes, Napoli at 1950 m depth and Amsterdam at 2040 m depth which are cold seeps characterized by high chemosynthetic activity and spatial heterogeneity. Typical deep sea ecosystems consisted of fine-grained silt-clay sediments which were collected from three areas located in the south Ionian Sea at 2765 to 2840 m depth, the southern Cretan margin at 1089 to 1998 m depth and the Levantine Sea at 3055 to 3870 m depth. A range of biological traits (9 traits; 31 categories) related to buccal morphology, tail shape, body size, body shape, life history strategy, sediment position, cuticle morphology, amphid shape and presence of somatic setae were combined to identify patterns in the functional composition of nematode assemblages between the two habitats, the two mud volcanoes (macroscale) and between the microhabitats within the mud volcanoes (microscale). Data on trait correspondence was provided by biological information on species and genera. A total of 170 nematode species were allocated in 67 different trait combinations, i.e. functional groups, based on taxonomic, morphological and behavioral characteristics. The Biological Trait Analysis (BTA) revealed significant differences between the mud volcanoes and the typical deep sea sediments indicating the presence of different biological functions in ecologically very different environments. Moreover, chemosynthetic activity and habitat heterogeneity within mud volcanoes enhance the presence of different biological and ecological functions in nematode assemblages of different microhabitats. Functional diversity and species richness patterns varied significantly across the different environmental gradients prevailing in the study areas. Biological trait analysis, with the addition of newly introduced trait categories, and functional diversity outcomes provided greater explanatory power of ecosystem functioning than species richness and taxonomic diversity.

  8. Integrated numerical modeling of a landslide early warning system in a context of adaptation to future climatic pressures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khabarov, Nikolay; Huggel, Christian; Obersteiner, Michael; Ramírez, Juan Manuel

    2010-05-01

    Mountain regions are typically characterized by rugged terrain which is susceptible to different types of landslides during high-intensity precipitation. Landslides account for billions of dollars of damage and many casualties, and are expected to increase in frequency in the future due to a projected increase of precipitation intensity. Early warning systems (EWS) are thought to be a primary tool for related disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation to extreme climatic events and hydro-meteorological hazards, including landslides. An EWS for hazards such as landslides consist of different components, including environmental monitoring instruments (e.g. rainfall or flow sensors), physical or empirical process models to support decision-making (warnings, evacuation), data and voice communication, organization and logistics-related procedures, and population response. Considering this broad range, EWS are highly complex systems, and it is therefore difficult to understand the effect of the different components and changing conditions on the overall performance, ultimately being expressed as human lives saved or structural damage reduced. In this contribution we present a further development of our approach to assess a landslide EWS in an integral way, both at the system and component level. We utilize a numerical model using 6 hour rainfall data as basic input. A threshold function based on a rainfall-intensity/duration relation was applied as a decision criterion for evacuation. Damage to infrastructure and human lives was defined as a linear function of landslide magnitude, with the magnitude modelled using a power function of landslide frequency. Correct evacuation was assessed with a ‘true' reference rainfall dataset versus a dataset of artificially reduced quality imitating the observation system component. Performance of the EWS using these rainfall datasets was expressed in monetary terms (i.e. damage related to false and correct evacuation). We applied this model to a landslide EWS in Colombia that is currently being implemented within a disaster prevention project. We evaluated the EWS against rainfall data with artificially introduced error and computed with multiple model runs the probabilistic damage functions depending on rainfall error. Then we modified the original precipitation pattern to reflect possible climatic changes e.g. change in annual precipitation as well as change in precipitation intensity with annual values remaining constant. We let the EWS model adapt for changed conditions to function optimally. Our results show that for the same errors in rainfall measurements the system's performance degrades with expected changing climatic conditions. The obtained results suggest that EWS cannot internally adapt to climate change and require exogenous adaptive measures to avoid increase in overall damage. The model represents a first attempt to integrally simulate and evaluate EWS under future possible climatic pressures. Future work will concentrate on refining model components and spatially explicit climate scenarios.

  9. Disaster warning system: Satellite feasibility and comparison with terrestrial systems. Volume 1: Executive summary

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spoor, J. H.; Hodge, W. H.; Fluk, M. J.; Bamford, T. F.

    1974-01-01

    The Disaster Warning System (DWS) is a conceptual system which will provide the National Weather Service (NWS) with communication services in the 1980s to help minimize losses caused by natural disasters. The object of this study is a comparative analysis between a terrestrial DWS and a satellite DWS. Baseline systems satisfying the NOAA requirements were synthesized in sufficient detail so that a comparison could be made in terms of performance and cost. The cost of both baseline systems is dominated by the disaster warning and spotter reporting functions. An effort was undertaken to reduce system cost through lower-capacity alternative systems generated by modifying the baseline systems. By reducing the number of required channels and modifying the spotter reporting techniques, alternative satellite systems were synthesized. A terrestrial alternative with the coverage reduced to an estimated 95 percent of the population was considered.

  10. Dilemma zone protection on high-speed arterials.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2014-12-01

    Driver behavior within the dilemma zone can be a major safety concern at high-speed signalized intersections, especially : for heavy trucks. The Nebraska Department of Roads (NDOR) has developed and implemented an Actuated Advance : Warning (AAW) dil...

  11. Reducing Runway Incursions: Can You Relate?

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1992-01-01

    Side object detection systems (SODS) are collision warning systems which alert drivers to the presence of traffic alongside their vehicle within defined detection zones. The intent of SODS is to reduce collisions during lane changes and merging maneu...

  12. Testing the Behavioral Interaction and Integration of Attentional Networks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fan, Jin; Gu, Xiaosi; Guise, Kevin G.; Liu, Xun; Fossella, John; Wang, Hongbin; Posner, Michael I.

    2009-01-01

    One current conceptualization of attention subdivides it into functions of alerting, orienting, and executive control. Alerting describes the function of tonically maintaining the alert state and phasically responding to a warning signal. Automatic and voluntary orienting are involved in the selection of information among multiple sensory inputs.…

  13. Ionic liquid-functionalized mesoporous sorbents and their use in the capture of polluting gases

    DOEpatents

    Lee, Jong Suk; Koros, William J.; Bhuwania, Nitesh; Hillesheim, Patrick C.; Dai, Sheng

    2016-01-12

    A composite structure for capturing a gaseous electrophilic species, the composite structure comprising mesoporous refractory sorbent particles on which an ionic liquid is covalently attached, wherein said ionic liquid includes an accessible functional group that is capable of binding to said gaseous electrophilic species. In particular embodiments, the mesoporous sorbent particles are contained within refractory hollow fibers. Also described is a method for capturing a gaseous electrophilic species by use of the above-described composite structure, wherein the gaseous electrophilic species is contacted with the composite structure. In particular embodiments thereof, cooling water is passed through the refractory hollow fibers containing the IL-functionalized sorbent particles in order to facilitate capture of the gaseous electrophilic species, and then steam is passed through the refractory hollow fibers to facilitate release of the gaseous electrophilic species such that the composite structure can be re-used to capture additional gas.

  14. Contrasting Relationships between Functional and Species Diversity in Subarctic and Subtropical Copepod Communities across the western North Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia-Comas, C.; Chiba, S.; Sugisaki, H.; Hashioka, T.; Smith, S. L.

    2016-02-01

    Understanding how species coexist in rich communities and the role of biodiversity on ecosystem-functioning is a long-standing challenge in ecology. Comparing functional diversity to species diversity may shed light on these questions. Here, we analyze copepod species data from the ODATE collection: 3142 samples collected over a period of 40 years, which includes a 10 o x 10o area of the Oyashio-Kuroshio Transition System, east of Japan (western North Pacific). The area hosts species characteristic of subarctic and subtropical communities. 163 copepod species were classified into five categorical functional traits (i.e., size, food, reproduction, thermal affinity and coastal-offshore habitat), following online databases and local taxonomic keys. We observe a general opposite hump-shaped relationship of species evenness (lower at mid-point) and functional diversity (Rao's Q) (higher at mid-point) with species richness. Subtropical Kuroshio communities tend to be richer with higher species evenness, and yet subarctic and transition waters tend to host communities of higher functional diversity. The distribution of trait values within each functional trait was further examined in relation to the Species Abundances Distribution (SAD). In subtropical communities, the distribution of trait values in the species ranking is homogenous, mirroring the frequency of those trait values in the entire community. In contrast, in subarctic communities the distribution of trait values differs along the species rank, with dominant species having favorable trait values more often than expected by chance (i.e., based on the overall frequency of that trait value in the entire community). Our results suggest that subtropical communities may be niche-saturated towards the most adapted trait values, so that merely having the most adapted trait value confers no strong competitive advantage to a species.

  15. The impact of false warnings on partial and full lane departure warnings effectiveness and acceptance in car driving.

    PubMed

    Navarro, Jordan; Yousfi, Elsa; Deniel, Jonathan; Jallais, Christophe; Bueno, Mercedes; Fort, Alexandra

    2016-12-01

    In the past, lane departure warnings (LDWs) were demonstrated to improve driving behaviours during lane departures but little is known about the effects of unreliable warnings. This experiment focused on the influence of false warnings alone or in combination with missed warnings and warning onset on assistance effectiveness and acceptance. Two assistance unreliability levels (33 and 17%) and two warning onsets (partial and full lane departure) were manipulated in order to investigate interaction. Results showed that assistance, regardless unreliability levels and warning onsets, improved driving behaviours during lane departure episodes and outside of these episodes by favouring better lane-keeping performances. Full lane departure and highly unreliable warnings, however, reduced assistance efficiency. Drivers' assistance acceptance was better for the most reliable warnings and for the subsequent warnings. The data indicate that imperfect LDWs (false warnings or false and missed warnings) further improve driving behaviours compared to no assistance. Practitioner Summary: This study revealed that imperfect lane departure warnings are able to significantly improve driving performances and that warning onset is a key element for assistance effectiveness and acceptance. The conclusion may be of particular interest for lane departure warning designers.

  16. Within-species patterns challenge our understanding of the leaf economics spectrum.

    PubMed

    Anderegg, Leander D L; Berner, Logan T; Badgley, Grayson; Sethi, Meera L; Law, Beverly E; HilleRisLambers, Janneke

    2018-05-01

    The utility of plant functional traits for predictive ecology relies on our ability to interpret trait variation across multiple taxonomic and ecological scales. Using extensive data sets of trait variation within species, across species and across communities, we analysed whether and at what scales leaf economics spectrum (LES) traits show predicted trait-trait covariation. We found that most variation in LES traits is often, but not universally, at high taxonomic levels (between families or genera in a family). However, we found that trait covariation shows distinct taxonomic scale dependence, with some trait correlations showing opposite signs within vs. across species. LES traits responded independently to environmental gradients within species, with few shared environmental responses across traits or across scales. We conclude that, at small taxonomic scales, plasticity may obscure or reverse the broad evolutionary linkages between leaf traits, meaning that variation in LES traits cannot always be interpreted as differences in resource use strategy. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  17. Research and application of a hybrid model based on dynamic fuzzy synthetic evaluation for establishing air quality forecasting and early warning system: A case study in China.

    PubMed

    Xu, Yunzhen; Du, Pei; Wang, Jianzhou

    2017-04-01

    As the atmospheric environment pollution has been becoming more and more serious in China, it is highly desirable to develop a scientific and effective early warning system that plays a great significant role in analyzing and monitoring air quality. However, establishing a robust early warning system for warning the public in advance and ameliorating air quality is not only an extremely challenging task but also a public concerned problem for human health. Most previous studies are focused on improving the prediction accuracy, which usually ignore the significance of uncertainty information and comprehensive evaluation concerning air pollutants. Therefore, in this paper a novel robust early warning system was successfully developed, which consists of three modules: evaluation module, forecasting module and characteristics estimating module. In this system, a new dynamic fuzzy synthetic evaluation is proposed and applied to determine air quality levels and primary pollutants, which can be regarded as the research objectives; Moreover, to further mine and analyze the characteristics of air pollutants, four different distribution functions and interval forecasting method are also employed that can not only provide predictive range, confidence level and the other uncertain information of the pollutants future values, but also assist decision-makers in reducing and controlling the emissions of atmospheric pollutants. Case studies utilizing hourly PM 2.5 , PM 10 and SO 2 data collected from Tianjin and Shanghai in China are applied as illustrative examples to estimate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed system. Experimental results obviously indicated that the developed novel early warning system is much suitable for analyzing and monitoring air pollution, which can also add a novel viable option for decision-makers. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Five species, many genotypes, broad phenotypic diversity: When agronomy meets functional ecology.

    PubMed

    Prieto, Ivan; Litrico, Isabelle; Violle, Cyrille; Barre, Philippe

    2017-01-01

    Current ecological theory can provide insight into the causes and impacts of plant domestication. However, just how domestication has impacted intraspecific genetic variability (ITV) is unknown. We used 50 ecotypes and 35 cultivars from five grassland species to explore how selection drives functional trait coordination and genetic differentiation. We quantified the extent of genetic diversity among different sets of functional traits and determined how much genetic diversity has been generated within populations of natural ecotypes and selected cultivars. In general, the cultivars were larger (e.g., greater height, faster growth rates) and had larger and thinner leaves (greater SLA). We found large (average 63%) and trait-dependent (ranging from 14% for LNC to 95.8% for growth rate) genetic variability. The relative extent of genetic variability was greater for whole-plant than for organ-level traits. This pattern was consistent within ecotypes and within cultivars. However, ecotypes presented greater ITV variability. The results indicated that genetic diversity is large in domesticated species with contrasting levels of heritability among functional traits and that selection for high yield has led to indirect selection of some associated leaf traits. These findings open the way to define which target traits should be the focus in selection programs, especially in the context of community-level selection. © 2017 Botanical Society of America.

  19. New Coastal Tsunami Gauges: Application at Augustine Volcano, Cook Inlet, Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burgy, M.; Bolton, D. K.

    2006-12-01

    Recent eruptive activity at Augustine Volcano and its associated tsunami threat to lower Cook Inlet pointed out the need for a quickly deployable tsunami detector which could be installed on Augustine Island's coast. The detector's purpose would be to verify tsunami generation by direct observation of the wave at the source to support tsunami warning decisions along populated coastlines. To fill this need the Tsunami Mobile Alert Real-Time (TSMART) system was developed at NOAA's West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center with support from the University of Alaska Tsunami Warning and Environmental Observatory for Alaska program (TWEAK) and the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO). The TSMART system consists of a pressure sensor installed as near as possible to the low tide line. The sensor is enclosed in a water-tight hypalon bag filled with propylene-glycol to prevent silt damage to the sensor and freezing. The bag is enclosed in a perforated, strong plastic pipe about 16 inches long and 8 inches in diameter enclosed at both ends for protection. The sensor is cabled to a data logger/radio/power station up to 300 feet distant. Data are transmitted to a base station and made available to the warning center in real-time through the internet. This data telemetry system can be incorporated within existing AVO and Plate Boundary Observatory networks which makes it ideal for volcano-tsunami monitoring. A TSMART network can be utilized anywhere in the world within 120 miles of an internet connection. At Augustine, two test stations were installed on the east side of the island in August 2006. The sensors were located very near the low tide limit and covered with rock, and the cable was buried to the data logger station which was located well above high tide mark. Data logger, radio, battery and other electronics are housed in an enclosure mounted to a pole which also supports an antenna and solar panel. Radio signal is transmitted to a repeater station higher up on the island which then transmits the data to a base station in Homer, Alaska. Sea level data values are transmitted every 15 seconds and displayed at the tsunami warning center in Palmer, Alaska.

  20. Balancing data sharing requirements for analyses with data sensitivity

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jarnevich, C.S.; Graham, J.J.; Newman, G.J.; Crall, A.W.; Stohlgren, T.J.

    2007-01-01

    Data sensitivity can pose a formidable barrier to data sharing. Knowledge of species current distributions from data sharing is critical for the creation of watch lists and an early warning/rapid response system and for model generation for the spread of invasive species. We have created an on-line system to synthesize disparate datasets of non-native species locations that includes a mechanism to account for data sensitivity. Data contributors are able to mark their data as sensitive. This data is then 'fuzzed' in mapping applications and downloaded files to quarter-quadrangle grid cells, but the actual locations are available for analyses. We propose that this system overcomes the hurdles to data sharing posed by sensitive data. ?? 2006 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  1. Budding off: bringing functional genomics to Candida albicans

    PubMed Central

    Anderson, Matthew Z.

    2016-01-01

    Candida species are the most prevalent human fungal pathogens, with Candida albicans being the most clinically relevant species. Candida albicans resides as a commensal of the human gastrointestinal tract but is a frequent cause of opportunistic mucosal and systemic infections. Investigation of C. albicans virulence has traditionally relied on candidate gene approaches, but recent advances in functional genomics have now facilitated global, unbiased studies of gene function. Such studies include comparative genomics (both between and within Candida species), analysis of total RNA expression, and regulation and delineation of protein–DNA interactions. Additionally, large collections of mutant strains have begun to aid systematic screening of clinically relevant phenotypes. Here, we will highlight the development of functional genomics in C. albicans and discuss the use of these approaches to addressing both commensalism and pathogenesis in this species. PMID:26424829

  2. Forests and Phenology: Designing the Early Warning System to Understand Forest Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pierce, T.; Phillips, M. B.; Hargrove, W. W.; Dobson, G.; Hicks, J.; Hutchins, M.; Lichtenstein, K.

    2010-12-01

    Vegetative phenology is the study of plant development and changes with the seasons, such as the greening-up and browning-down of forests, and how these events are influenced by variations in climate. A National Phenology Data Set, based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellite images covering 2002 through 2009, is now available from work by NASA, the US Forest Service, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. This new data set provides an easily interpretable product useful for detecting changes to the landscape due to long-term factors such as climate change, as well as finding areas affected by short-term forest threats such as insects or disease. The Early Warning System (EWS) is a toolset being developed by the US Forest Service and the University of North Carolina-Asheville to support distribution and use of the National Phenology Data Set. The Early Warning System will help research scientists, US Forest Service personnel, forest and natural resources managers, decision makers, and the public in the use of phenology data to better understand unexpected change within our nation’s forests. These changes could have multiple natural sources such as insects, disease, or storm damage, or may be due to human-induced events, like thinning, harvest, forest conversion to agriculture, or residential and commercial use. The primary goal of the Early Warning System is to provide a seamless integration between monitoring, detection, early warning and prediction of these forest disturbances as observed through phenological data. The system consists of PC and web-based components that are structured to support four user stages of increasing knowledge and data sophistication. Building Literacy: This stage of the Early Warning System educates potential users about the system, why the system should be used, and the fundamentals about the data the system uses. The channels for this education include a website, interactive tutorials, pamphlets, and other technology transfer methodologies. Achieving Context and Meaning: To provide deeper meaning and knowledge about the Early Warning System to users, this stage of the Early Warning System provides more information about specific examples of disturbances seen in the phenological data, as well the spatial and temporal context to these disturbances. The main components of this stage are specific case studies of forest disturbances. Accessing Data: This component of the Early Warning System includes products for research scientists, the aerial detection survey sketch mapper community, and others who will access and analyze the Early Warning System and phenological data. Products and data will be available through online GIS mashups and WMS and KML downloads. Utilizing Services: The final stage of the Early Warning System supports the analysis of phenological data and serves the results to those end users, including forest managers, the forest industry, and the public, who need to locate past, present, and potential forest disturbances. The main components of this stage include data-driven web tools, automated analysis processes, and end user training programs.

  3. Feasibility study of earthquake early warning (EEW) in Hawaii

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thelen, Weston A.; Hotovec-Ellis, Alicia J.; Bodin, Paul

    2016-09-30

    The effects of earthquake shaking on the population and infrastructure across the State of Hawaii could be catastrophic, and the high seismic hazard in the region emphasizes the likelihood of such an event. Earthquake early warning (EEW) has the potential to give several seconds of warning before strong shaking starts, and thus reduce loss of life and damage to property. The two approaches to EEW are (1) a network approach (such as ShakeAlert or ElarmS) where the regional seismic network is used to detect the earthquake and distribute the alarm and (2) a local approach where a critical facility has a single seismometer (or small array) and a warning system on the premises.The network approach, also referred to here as ShakeAlert or ElarmS, uses the closest stations within a regional seismic network to detect and characterize an earthquake. Most parameters used for a network approach require observations on multiple stations (typically 3 or 4), which slows down the alarm time slightly, but the alarms are generally more reliable than with single-station EEW approaches. The network approach also benefits from having stations closer to the source of any potentially damaging earthquake, so that alarms can be sent ahead to anyone who subscribes to receive the notification. Thus, a fully implemented ShakeAlert system can provide seconds of warning for both critical facilities and general populations ahead of damaging earthquake shaking.The cost to implement and maintain a fully operational ShakeAlert system is high compared to a local approach or single-station solution, but the benefits of a ShakeAlert system would be felt statewide—the warning times for strong shaking are potentially longer for most sources at most locations.The local approach, referred to herein as “single station,” uses measurements from a single seismometer to assess whether strong earthquake shaking can be expected. Because of the reliance on a single station, false alarms are more common than when using a regional network of seismometers. Given the current network, a single-station approach provides more warning for damaging earthquakes that occur close to the station, but it would have limited benefit compared to a fully implemented ShakeAlert system. For Honolulu, for example, the single-station approach provides an advantage over ShakeAlert only for earthquakes that occur in a narrow zone extending northeast and southwest of O‘ahu. Instrumentation and alarms associated with the single-station approach are typically maintained and assessed within the target facility, and thus no outside connectivity is required. A single-station approach, then, is unlikely to help broader populations beyond the individuals at the target facility, but they have the benefit of being commercially available for relatively little cost. The USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) is the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) regional seismic network responsible for locating and characterizing earthquakes across the State of Hawaii. During 2014 and 2015, HVO tested a network-based EEW algorithm within the current seismic network in order to assess the suitability for building a full EEW system. Using the current seismic instrumentation and processing setup at HVO, it is possible for a network approach to release an alarm a little more than 3 seconds after the earthquake is recorded on the fourth seismometer. Presently, earthquakes having M≥3 detected with the ElarmS algorithm have an average location error of approximately 4.5 km and an average magnitude error of -0.3 compared to the reviewed catalog locations from the HVO. Additional stations and upgrades to existing seismic stations would serve to improve solution precision and warning times and additional staffing would be required to provide support for a robust, network-based EEW system. For a critical facility on the Island of Hawaiʻi, such as the telescopes atop Mauna Kea, one phased approach to mitigate losses could be to immediately install a single station system to establish some level of warning. Subsequently, supporting the implementation of a full network-based EEW system on the Island of Hawaiʻi would provide additional benefit in the form of improved warning times once the system is fully installed and operational, which may take several years. Distributed populations across the Hawaiian Islands, including those outside the major cities and far from the likely earthquake source areas, would likely only benefit from a network approach such as ShakeAlert to provide warnings of strong shaking.

  4. The Earthquake Early Warning System In Southern Italy: Performance Tests And Next Developments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zollo, A.; Elia, L.; Martino, C.; Colombelli, S.; Emolo, A.; Festa, G.; Iannaccone, G.

    2011-12-01

    PRESTo (PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem) is the software platform for Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) in Southern Italy, that integrates recent algorithms for real-time earthquake location, magnitude estimation and damage assessment, into a highly configurable and easily portable package. The system is under active experimentation based on the Irpinia Seismic Network (ISNet). PRESTo processes the live streams of 3C acceleration data for P-wave arrival detection and, while an event is occurring, promptly performs event detection and provides location, magnitude estimations and peak ground shaking predictions at target sites. The earthquake location is obtained by an evolutionary, real-time probabilistic approach based on an equal differential time formulation. At each time step, it uses information from both triggered and not-yet-triggered stations. Magnitude estimation exploits an empirical relationship that correlates it to the filtered Peak Displacement (Pd), measured over the first 2-4 s of P-signal. Peak ground-motion parameters at any distance can be finally estimated by ground motion prediction equations. Alarm messages containing the updated estimates of these parameters can thus reach target sites before the destructive waves, enabling automatic safety procedures. Using the real-time data streaming from the ISNet network, PRESTo has produced a bulletin for about a hundred low-magnitude events occurred during last two years. Meanwhile, the performances of the EEW system were assessed off-line playing-back the records for moderate and large events from Italy, Spain and Japan and synthetic waveforms for large historical events in Italy. These tests have shown that, when a dense seismic network is deployed in the fault area, PRESTo produces reliable estimates of earthquake location and size within 5-6 s from the event origin time (To). Estimates are provided as probability density functions whose uncertainty typically decreases with time, obtaining a stable solution within 10 s from To. The regional approach was recently integrated with a threshold-based early warning method for the definition of alert levels and the estimation of the Potential Damaged Zone (PDZ) in which the highest intensity levels are expected. The dominant period Tau_c and the peak displacement (Pd) are simultaneously measured in a 3s window after the first P-arrival time. Pd and Tau_c are then compared with threshold values, previously established through an empirical regression analysis, that define a decisional table with four alert levels. According to the real-time measured values of Pd and tau_c, each station provides a local alert level that can be used to warn distant sites and to define the extent of the PDZ. The integrated system was validated off-line for the M6.3, 2009 Central Italy earthquake and ten large Japanese events, due to the low-magnitude events currently occurring in Irpinia. The results confirmed the feasibility and the robustness of such an approach, providing reliable predictions of the earthquake damaging effects, that is a relevant information for the efficient planning of the rescue operations in the immediate post-event emergency phase.

  5. Perceptions of tobacco health warnings in China compared with picture and text-only health warnings from other countries: an experimental study.

    PubMed

    Fong, Geoffrey T; Hammond, David; Jiang, Yuan; Li, Qiang; Quah, Anne C K; Driezen, Pete; Yan, Mi

    2010-10-01

    To assess the perceived effectiveness of cigarette health warnings in China, compared with picture and text-only warnings from other countries. 1169 individuals (adult smokers, adult nonsmokers and youth) from four Chinese cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Kunming and Yinchuan) viewed 10 health warnings on cigarette packages, which included (a) the current Chinese text warnings covering 30% of the front/back of the pack (introduced October 2008); (b) the former Chinese text warning located on the side of the pack; (c) four picture warnings covering 50% of the front/back of the pack from Canada (lung cancer), Singapore (mouth disease), Hong Kong (gangrene) and European Union (clogged arteries); and (d) the same four warnings without the picture. Participants rated and ranked the 10 warnings on dimensions including how effective each would be in motivating smokers to quit and in convincing youth not to start smoking. Both Chinese warnings were consistently rated as least effective, with the new Chinese warning rated only slightly higher than the old warning. The picture warnings were consistently ranked or rated as most effective, with the text-only versions in the middle. Results were consistent across subject group, city and sex. (1) Picture warnings are rated as much more effective than the same warnings without pictures. (2) The revised health warnings in China, introduced in October 2008, are only marginally more effective than the previous warning and far less effective than even text warnings from other countries. These results, coupled with population-based evaluation studies, suggest that pictorial warnings would significantly increase the impact of health warnings in China.

  6. A Neutral Network based Early Eathquake Warning model in California region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiao, H.; MacAyeal, D. R.

    2016-12-01

    Early Earthquake Warning systems could reduce loss of lives and other economic impact resulted from natural disaster or man-made calamity. Current systems could be further enhanced by neutral network method. A 3 layer neural network model combined with onsite method was deployed in this paper to improve the recognition time and detection time for large scale earthquakes.The 3 layer neutral network early earthquake warning model adopted the vector feature design for sample events happened within 150 km radius of the epicenters. Dataset used in this paper contained both destructive events and small scale events. All the data was extracted from IRIS database to properly train the model. In the training process, backpropagation algorithm was used to adjust the weight matrices and bias matrices during each iteration. The information in all three channels of the seismometers served as the source in this model. Through designed tests, it was indicated that this model could identify approximately 90 percent of the events' scale correctly. And the early detection could provide informative evidence for public authorities to make further decisions. This indicated that neutral network model could have the potential to strengthen current early warning system, since the onsite method may greatly reduce the responding time and save more lives in such disasters.

  7. Multi-terminal remote monitoring and warning system using Micro Air Vehicle for dangerous environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Yanan; Wang, Xiaoxun; He, Chengcheng; Lai, Chenlong; Liu, Yuanchao

    2015-11-01

    For overcoming the problems such as remote operation and dangerous tasks, multi-terminal remote monitoring and warning system based on STC89C52 Micro Control Unit and wireless communication technique was proposed. The system with MCU as its core adopted multiple sets of sensor device to monitor environment parameters of different locations, such as temperature, humidity, smoke other harmful gas concentration. Data information collected was transmitted remotely by wireless transceiver module, and then multi-channel data parameter was processed and displayed through serial communication protocol between the module and PC. The results of system could be checked in the form of web pages within a local network which plays a wireless monitoring and warning role. In a remote operation, four-rotor micro air vehicle which fixed airborne data acquisition device was utilized as a middleware between collecting terminal and PC to increase monitoring scope. Whole test system has characteristics of simple construction, convenience, real time ability and high reliability, which could meet the requirements of actual use.

  8. Early Flood Warning in Africa: Results of a Feasibility study in the JUBA, SHABELLE and ZAMBEZI

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pappenberger, F. P.; de Roo, A. D.; Buizza, Roberto; Bodis, Katalin; Thiemig, Vera

    2009-04-01

    Building on the experiences gained with the European Flood Alert System (EFAS), pilot studies are carried out in three river basins in Africa. The European Flood Alert System, pre-operational since 2003, provides early flood alerts for European rivers. At present, the experiences with the European EFAS system are used to evaluate the feasibility of flood early warning for Africa. Three case studies are carried in the Juba and Shabelle rivers (Somalia and Ethiopia), and in the Zambesi river (Southern Africa). Predictions in these data scarce regions are extremely difficult to make as records of observations are scarce and often unreliable. Meteorological and Discharge observations are used to calibrate and test the model, as well as soils, landuse and topographic data available within the JRC African Observatory. ECMWF ERA-40, ERA-Interim data and re-forecasts of flood events from January to March 1978, and in March 2001 are evaluated to examine the feasibility for early flood warning. First results will be presented.

  9. Adolescents' Responses to Pictorial Warnings on Their Parents' Cigarette Packs

    PubMed Central

    Peebles, Kathryn; Hall, Marissa G.; Pepper, Jessica K.; Byron, M. Justin; Noar, Seth M.; Brewer, Noel T.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose Pictorial cigarette pack warnings are a promising policy solution to increase smoking cessation among adults. However, little is known regarding adolescents' responses to pictorial warnings, particularly in real-world settings. Methods Participants were 112 adolescent children, ages 13–17, whose parents received either text-only warnings on the side of their cigarette packs or pictorial warnings on the top half of the front and back of their cigarette packs for 4 weeks as part of a trial. We measured adolescents' recall and recognition of these warnings, negative emotional reactions to the warnings, perceived effectiveness of the warnings, social interactions about the warnings, and smoking risk beliefs. Results Adolescents accurately recalled pictorial warnings more often than text-only warnings (82% vs. 19%, p < .001). Recognition of warnings was also higher for pictorial than text-only warnings (82% vs. 34%, p < .001). Pictorial warnings drew greater attention (p < .001), elicited greater negative emotional reactions (p < .05), and sparked more social interactions (p < .01) than text-only warnings. Conclusions Pictorial warnings on cigarette packs may have important effects on adolescent children of smokers. Future research should further investigate the impact of such messages on adolescents' susceptibility to smoking initiation and interest in quitting smoking, particularly as the United States and other countries work to implement pictorial warning regulations. PMID:27646499

  10. Within compound, from Guard Tower (Building 5762), looking southwest, Technical ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    Within compound, from Guard Tower (Building 5762), looking southwest, Technical Equipment Building (Building 5760) to left, Microwave Tower (associated with Building 5769) and Civil Engineering Storage Building (Building 5766) to left - Beale Air Force Base, Perimeter Acquisition Vehicle Entry Phased-Array Warning System, End of Spencer Paul Road, north of Warren Shingle Road (14th Street), Marysville, Yuba County, CA

  11. Within compound, from Gate House, looking northwest, Power Plant (Building ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    Within compound, from Gate House, looking northwest, Power Plant (Building 5761) to left, Electrical Substation (Building 5770) and Supply Warehouse (Building 5768) center, Satellite Communications Terminal (Building 5771) to far left - Beale Air Force Base, Perimeter Acquisition Vehicle Entry Phased-Array Warning System, End of Spencer Paul Road, north of Warren Shingle Road (14th Street), Marysville, Yuba County, CA

  12. In-vehicle decision support to reduce crashes at rural thru-stop intersections.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2011-08-01

    Purpose: Within the context of thru-stop intersections, investigate the feasibility and future promise of warning : systems inside the vehicle, where interfaces are best placed, and what modalities are most effective (visual versus : haptic). Methods...

  13. Functionally specialised birds respond flexibly to seasonal changes in fruit availability.

    PubMed

    Bender, Irene M A; Kissling, W Daniel; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; Hensen, Isabell; Kühn, Ingolf; Wiegand, Thorsten; Dehling, D Matthias; Schleuning, Matthias

    2017-07-01

    Interactions between resource and consumer species result in complex ecological networks. The overall structure of these networks is often stable in space and time, but little is known about the temporal stability of the functional roles of consumer species in these networks. We used a trait-based approach to investigate whether consumers (frugivorous birds) show similar degrees of functional specialisation on resources (plants) in ecological networks across seasons. We additionally tested whether closely related bird species have similar degrees of functional specialisation and whether birds that are functionally specialised on specific resource types within a season are flexible in switching to other resource types in other seasons. We analysed four seasonal replicates of two species-rich plant-frugivore networks from the tropical Andes. To quantify fruit preferences of frugivorous birds, we projected their interactions with plants into a multidimensional plant trait space. To measure functional specialisation of birds, we calculated a species' functional niche breadth (the extent of seasonal plant trait space utilised by a particular bird) and functional originality (the extent to which a bird species' fruit preference functionally differs from those of other species in a seasonal network). We additionally calculated functional flexibility, i.e. the ability of bird species to change their fruit preference across seasons in response to variation in plant resources. Functional specialisation of bird species varied more among species than across seasons, and phylogenetically similar bird species showed similar degrees of functional niche breadth (phylogenetic signal λ = 0·81) and functional originality (λ = 0·89). Additionally, we found that birds with high functional flexibility across seasons had narrow functional niche breadth and high functional originality per season, suggesting that birds that are seasonally specialised on particular resources are most flexible in switching to other fruit resources across seasons. The high flexibility of functionally specialised bird species to switch seasonally to other resources challenges the view that consumer species rely on functionally similar resources throughout the year. This flexibility of consumer species may be an important, but widely neglected mechanism that could potentially stabilise consumer-resource networks in response to human disturbance and environmental change. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

  14. Bridging Empirical and Physical Approaches for Landslide Monitoring and Early Warning

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kirschbaum, Dalia; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Adler, Robert; Kumar, Sujay; Harrison, Ken

    2011-01-01

    Rainfall-triggered landslides typically occur and are evaluated at local scales, using slope-stability models to calculate coincident changes in driving and resisting forces at the hillslope level in order to anticipate slope failures. Over larger areas, detailed high resolution landslide modeling is often infeasible due to difficulties in quantifying the complex interaction between rainfall infiltration and surface materials as well as the dearth of available in situ soil and rainfall estimates and accurate landslide validation data. This presentation will discuss how satellite precipitation and surface information can be applied within a landslide hazard assessment framework to improve landslide monitoring and early warning by considering two disparate approaches to landslide hazard assessment: an empirical landslide forecasting algorithm and a physical slope-stability model. The goal of this research is to advance near real-time landslide hazard assessment and early warning at larger spatial scales. This is done by employing high resolution surface and precipitation information within a probabilistic framework to provide more physically-based grounding to empirical landslide triggering thresholds. The empirical landslide forecasting tool, running in near real-time at http://trmm.nasa.gov, considers potential landslide activity at the global scale and relies on Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation data and surface products to provide a near real-time picture of where landslides may be triggered. The physical approach considers how rainfall infiltration on a hillslope affects the in situ hydro-mechanical processes that may lead to slope failure. Evaluation of these empirical and physical approaches are performed within the Land Information System (LIS), a high performance land surface model processing and data assimilation system developed within the Hydrological Sciences Branch at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. LIS provides the capabilities to quantify uncertainty from model inputs and calculate probabilistic estimates for slope failures. Results indicate that remote sensing data can provide many of the spatiotemporal requirements for accurate landslide monitoring and early warning; however, higher resolution precipitation inputs will help to better identify small-scale precipitation forcings that contribute to significant landslide triggering. Future missions, such as the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission will provide more frequent and extensive estimates of precipitation at the global scale, which will serve as key inputs to significantly advance the accuracy of landslide hazard assessment, particularly over larger spatial scales.

  15. A probabilistic approach of the Flash Flood Early Warning System (FF-EWS) in Catalonia based on radar ensemble generation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Velasco, David; Sempere-Torres, Daniel; Corral, Carles; Llort, Xavier; Velasco, Enrique

    2010-05-01

    Early Warning Systems (EWS) are commonly identified as the most efficient tools in order to improve the preparedness and risk management against heavy rains and Flash Floods (FF) with the objective of reducing economical losses and human casualties. In particular, flash floods affecting torrential Mediterranean catchments are a key element to be incorporated within operational EWSs. The characteristic high spatial and temporal variability of the storms requires high-resolution data and methods to monitor/forecast the evolution of rainfall and its hydrological impact in small and medium torrential basins. A first version of an operational FF-EWS has been implemented in Catalonia (NE Spain) under the name of EHIMI system (Integrated Tool for Hydrometeorological Forecasting) with the support of the Catalan Water Agency (ACA) and the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC). Flash flood warnings are issued based on radar-rainfall estimates. Rainfall estimation is performed on radar observations with high spatial and temporal resolution (1km2 and 10 minutes) in order to adapt the warning scale to the 1-km grid of the EWS. The method is based on comparing observed accumulated rainfall against rainfall thresholds provided by the regional Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves. The so-called "aggregated rainfall warning" at every river cell is obtained as the spatially averaged rainfall over its associated upstream draining area. Regarding the time aggregation of rainfall, the critical duration is thought to be an accumulation period similar to the concentration time of each cachtment. The warning is issued once the forecasted rainfall accumulation exceeds the rainfall thresholds mentioned above, which are associated to certain probability of occurrence. Finally, the hazard warning is provided and shown to the decision-maker in terms of exceeded return periods at every river cell covering the whole area of Catalonia. The objective of the present work includes the probabilistic component to the FF-EWS. As a first step, we have incorporated the uncertainty in rainfall estimates and forecasts based on an ensemble of equiprobable rainfall scenarios. The presented study has focused on a number of rainfall events and the performance of the FF-EWS evaluated in terms of its ability to produce probabilistic hazard warnings for decision-making support.

  16. 49 CFR 234.263 - Relays.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... affects the proper functioning of a crossing warning system shall be tested at least once every four years... on four year intervals shall be completed in accordance with the following schedule: (1) Not less...

  17. Discovering functional DNA elements using population genomic information: a proof of concept using human mtDNA.

    PubMed

    Schrider, Daniel R; Kern, Andrew D

    2014-06-09

    Identifying the complete set of functional elements within the human genome would be a windfall for multiple areas of biological research including medicine, molecular biology, and evolution. Complete knowledge of function would aid in the prioritization of loci when searching for the genetic bases of disease or adaptive phenotypes. Because mutations that disrupt function are disfavored by natural selection, purifying selection leaves a detectable signature within functional elements; accordingly, this signal has been exploited for over a decade through the use of genomic comparisons of distantly related species. While this is so, the functional complement of the genome changes extensively across time and between lineages; therefore, evidence of the current action of purifying selection in humans is essential. Because the removal of deleterious mutations by natural selection also reduces within-species genetic diversity within functional loci, dense population genetic data have the potential to reveal genomic elements that are currently functional. Here, we assess the potential of this approach by examining an ultradeep sample of human mitochondrial genomes (n = 16,411). We show that the high density of polymorphism in this data set precisely delineates regions experiencing purifying selection. Furthermore, we show that the number of segregating alleles at a site is strongly correlated with its divergence across species after accounting for known mutational biases in human mitochondrial DNA (ρ = 0.51; P < 2.2 × 10(-16)). These two measures track one another at a remarkably fine scale across many loci-a correlation that is purely the result of natural selection. Our results demonstrate that genetic variation has the potential to reveal with surprising precision which regions in the genome are currently performing important functions and likely to have deleterious fitness effects when mutated. As more complete human genomes are sequenced, similar power to reveal purifying selection may be achievable in the human nuclear genome. © The Author(s) 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

  18. Point Count Length and Detection of Forest Neotropical Migrant Birds

    Treesearch

    Deanna K. Dawson; David R. Smith; Chandler S. Robbins

    1995-01-01

    Comparisons of bird abundances among years or among habitats assume that the rates at which birds are detected and counted are constant within species. We use point count data collected in forests of the Mid-Atlantic states to estimate detection probabilities for Neotropical migrant bird species as a function of count length. For some species, significant differences...

  19. Exotic annual Bromus invasions: Comparisons among species and ecoregions in the western United States [Chapter 2

    Treesearch

    Matthew L. Brooks; Cynthia S. Brown; Jeanne C. Chambers; Carla M. D' Antonio; Jon E. Keeley; Jayne Belnap

    2016-01-01

    Exotic annual Bromus species are widely recognized for their potential to invade, dominate, and alter the structure and function of ecosystems. In this chapter, we summarize the invasion potential, ecosystem threats, and management strategies for different Bromus species within each of five ecoregions of the western United States. We characterize invasion...

  20. Functional traits predict relationship between plant abundance dynamic and long-term climate warming

    PubMed Central

    Soudzilovskaia, Nadejda A.; Elumeeva, Tatiana G.; Onipchenko, Vladimir G.; Shidakov, Islam I.; Salpagarova, Fatima S.; Khubiev, Anzor B.; Tekeev, Dzhamal K.; Cornelissen, Johannes H. C.

    2013-01-01

    Predicting climate change impact on ecosystem structure and services is one of the most important challenges in ecology. Until now, plant species response to climate change has been described at the level of fixed plant functional types, an approach limited by its inflexibility as there is much interspecific functional variation within plant functional types. Considering a plant species as a set of functional traits greatly increases our possibilities for analysis of ecosystem functioning and carbon and nutrient fluxes associated therewith. Moreover, recently assembled large-scale databases hold comprehensive per-species data on plant functional traits, allowing a detailed functional description of many plant communities on Earth. Here, we show that plant functional traits can be used as predictors of vegetation response to climate warming, accounting in our test ecosystem (the species-rich alpine belt of Caucasus mountains, Russia) for 59% of variability in the per-species abundance relation to temperature. In this mountain belt, traits that promote conservative leaf water economy (higher leaf mass per area, thicker leaves) and large investments in belowground reserves to support next year’s shoot buds (root carbon content) were the best predictors of the species increase in abundance along with temperature increase. This finding demonstrates that plant functional traits constitute a highly useful concept for forecasting changes in plant communities, and their associated ecosystem services, in response to climate change. PMID:24145400

  1. Sequential colonization and diversification of Galapágos endemic land snail genus Bulimulus (Gastropoda, Stylommatophora).

    PubMed

    Parent, Christine E; Crespi, Bernard J

    2006-11-01

    Species richness on island or islandlike systems is a function of colonization, within-island speciation, and extinction. Here we evaluate the relative importance of the first two of these processes as a function of the biogeographical and ecological attributes of islands using the Galápagos endemic land snails of the genus Bulimulus, the most species-rich radiation of these islands. Species in this clade have colonized almost all major islands and are found in five of the six described vegetation zones. We use molecular phylogenetics (based on COI and ITS 1 sequence data) to infer the diversification patterns of extant species of Bulimulus, and multiple regression to investigate the causes of variation among islands in species richness. Maximum-likelihood, Bayesian, and maximum-parsimony analyses yield well-resolved trees with similar topologies. The phylogeny obtained supports the progression rule hypothesis, with species found on older emerged islands connecting at deeper nodes. For all but two island species assemblages we find support for only one or two colonization events, indicating that within-island speciation has an important role in the formation of species on these islands. Even though speciation through colonization is not common, island insularity (distance to nearest major island) is a significant predictor of species richness resulting from interisland colonization alone. However, island insularity has no effect on the overall bulimulid species richness per island. Habitat diversity (measured as plant species diversity), island elevation, and island area, all of which are indirect measures of niche space, are strong predictors of overall bulimulid land snail species richness. Island age is also an important independent predictor of overall species richness, with older islands harboring more species than younger islands. Taken together, our results demonstrate that the diversification of Galápagos bulimulid land snails has been driven by a combination of geographic factors (island age, size, and location), which affect colonization patterns, and ecological factors, such as plant species diversity, that foster within-island speciation.

  2. Near Real Time Flood Warning System for National Capital Territory of Delhi

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goyal, A.; Yadav, H.; Tyagi, H.; Gosain, A. K.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme floods are common phenomena during Indian Monsoons. The National Capital Territory area of India, Delhi, frequently experiences fluvial as well as pluvial inundation due to its proximity to river Yamuna and poor functioning of its stormwater drainage system. The urban floods result in severe waterlogging and heavy traffic snarls, bringing life in this megapolis to a halt. The city has witnessed six major floods since 1900 and thus its residents are well conscious of potential flood risks but the city still lacks a flood warning system. The flood related risks can be considerably reduced, if not eliminated, by issuing timely warnings and implementing adaptive measures. Therefore, the present study attempts to develop a web based platform that integrates Web-GIS technology and mathematical simulation modelling to provide an effective and reliable early flood warning service for Delhi. The study makes use of India Metorological Department's Doppler radar-derived near real time rainfall estimates of 15 minutes time step. The developed SWMM model has been validated using information from gauges, monitoring sensors and crowd sourcing techniques and utilises capabilities of cloud computing on server side for fast processing. This study also recommends safe evacuation policy and remedial measures for flooding hotspots as part of flood risk management plan. With heightened risk of floods in fast urbanizing areas, this work becomes highly pertinent as flood warning system with adequate lead time can not only save precious lives but can also substantially reduce flood damages.

  3. Determination of Tsunami Warning Criteria for Current Velocity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, R.; Wang, D.

    2015-12-01

    Present Tsunami warning issuance largely depends on an event's predicted wave height and inundation depth. Specifically, a warning is issued if the on-shore wave height is greater than 1m. This project examines whether any consideration should be given to current velocity. We apply the idea of force balance to determine theoretical minimum velocity thresholds for injuring people and damaging properties as a function of wave height. Results show that even at a water depth of less than 1m, a current velocity of 2 m/s is enough to pose a threat to humans and cause potential damage to cars and houses. Next, we employ a 1-dimensional shallow water model to simulate Tsunamis with various amplitudes and an assumed wavelength of 250km. This allows for the profiling of current velocity and wave height behavior as the Tsunamis reach shore. We compare this data against our theoretical thresholds to see if any real world scenarios would be dangerous to people and properties. We conclude that for such Tsunamis, the present warning criteria are effective at protecting people against larger events with amplitude greater than ~0.3m. However, for events with amplitude less than ~0.2m, it is possible to have waves less than 1m with current velocity high enough to endanger humans. Thus, the inclusion of current velocity data would help the present Tsunami warning criteria become more robust and efficient, especially for smaller Tsunami events.

  4. Value of syndromic surveillance within the Armed Forces for early warning during a dengue fever outbreak in French Guiana in 2006

    PubMed Central

    Meynard, Jean-Baptiste; Chaudet, Hervé; Texier, Gaetan; Ardillon, Vanessa; Ravachol, Françoise; Deparis, Xavier; Jefferson, Henry; Dussart, Philippe; Morvan, Jacques; Boutin, Jean-Paul

    2008-01-01

    Background A dengue fever outbreak occured in French Guiana in 2006. The objectives were to study the value of a syndromic surveillance system set up within the armed forces, compared to the traditional clinical surveillance system during this outbreak, to highlight issues involved in comparing military and civilian surveillance systems and to discuss the interest of syndromic surveillance for public health response. Methods Military syndromic surveillance allows the surveillance of suspected dengue fever cases among the 3,000 armed forces personnel. Within the same population, clinical surveillance uses several definition criteria for dengue fever cases, depending on the epidemiological situation. Civilian laboratory surveillance allows the surveillance of biologically confirmed cases, within the 200,000 inhabitants. Results It was shown that syndromic surveillance detected the dengue fever outbreak several weeks before clinical surveillance, allowing quick and effective enhancement of vector control within the armed forces. Syndromic surveillance was also found to have detected the outbreak before civilian laboratory surveillance. Conclusion Military syndromic surveillance allowed an early warning for this outbreak to be issued, enabling a quicker public health response by the armed forces. Civilian surveillance system has since introduced syndromic surveillance as part of its surveillance strategy. This should enable quicker public health responses in the future. PMID:18597694

  5. Convergent evolution in the genetic basis of Müllerian mimicry in heliconius butterflies.

    PubMed

    Baxter, Simon W; Papa, Riccardo; Chamberlain, Nicola; Humphray, Sean J; Joron, Mathieu; Morrison, Clay; ffrench-Constant, Richard H; McMillan, W Owen; Jiggins, Chris D

    2008-11-01

    The neotropical butterflies Heliconius melpomene and H. erato are Müllerian mimics that display the same warningly colored wing patterns in local populations, yet pattern diversity between geographic regions. Linkage mapping has previously shown convergent red wing phenotypes in these species are controlled by loci on homologous chromosomes. Here, AFLP bulk segregant analysis using H. melpomene crosses identified genetic markers tightly linked to two red wing-patterning loci. These markers were used to screen a H. melpomene BAC library and a tile path was assembled spanning one locus completely and part of the second. Concurrently, a similar strategy was used to identify a BAC clone tightly linked to the locus controlling the mimetic red wing phenotypes in H. erato. A methionine rich storage protein (MRSP) gene was identified within this BAC clone, and comparative genetic mapping shows red wing color loci are in homologous regions of the genome of H. erato and H. melpomene. Subtle differences in these convergent phenotypes imply they evolved independently using somewhat different developmental routes, but are nonetheless regulated by the same switch locus. Genetic mapping of MRSP in a third related species, the "tiger" patterned H. numata, has no association with wing patterning and shows no evidence for genomic translocation of wing-patterning loci.

  6. Synchronous peaks in trap catches of malaria-infected mosquito species at Daeseongdong, a border village between North and South Korea.

    PubMed

    Foley, Desmond H; Klein, Terry A; Kim, Heung Chul; Kim, Myung-Soon; Wilkerson, Richard C; Harrison, Genelle; Rueda, Leopoldo M; Lee, Won-Ja

    2012-06-01

    Malaria continues to be a major health threat near the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) that separates North and South Korea. Adult mosquitoes were collected from 20 July through 21 October, 2010 at Daeseongdong, a small village within the DMZ. Molecular techniques were used to identify Anopheles to species and for detection of Plasmodium vivax sporozoites in their head and thorax. Trap catches showed concordant peaks of Anopheles belenrae and An. kleini early in the study period and concordant peaks of An. pullus and An. sinensis later in the season. Three well defined peaks of the 107 sporozoite positive mosquitoes were observed: 34.6% were An. kleini, 23.4% were An. belenrae, 21.5% were An. sinensis, 19.6% were An. pullus, and 0.9% were An. lesteri. Estimation of the extrinsic incubation period from daily temperatures did not help identify preceding biting peaks of An. pullus and An. sinensis, when infection should have been acquired. We explore possible reasons for the sudden appearance and disappearance of sporozoite-infected mosquitoes, including the influx of infected mosquitoes from adjoining areas, and weather patterns. Regular surveillance for infected mosquitoes near border areas of the Republic of Korea may provide advance warning of increased malaria risk potential. © 2012 The Society for Vector Ecology.

  7. Collapsing avian community on a Hawaiian island

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Paxton, Eben H.; Camp, Richard J.; Gorresen, P. Marcos; Crampton, Lisa H.; Leonard, David L.; VanderWerf, Eric

    2016-01-01

    The viability of many species has been jeopardized by numerous negative factors over the centuries, but climate change is predicted to accelerate and increase the pressure of many of these threats, leading to extinctions. The Hawaiian honeycreepers, famous for their spectacular adaptive radiation, are predicted to experience negative responses to climate change, given their susceptibility to introduced disease, the strong linkage of disease distribution to climatic conditions, and their current distribution. We document the rapid collapse of the native avifauna on the island of Kaua‘i that corresponds to changes in climate and disease prevalence. Although multiple factors may be pressuring the community, we suggest that a tipping point has been crossed in which temperatures in forest habitats at high elevations have reached a threshold that facilitates the development of avian malaria and its vector throughout these species’ ranges. Continued incursion of invasive weeds and non-native avian competitors may be facilitated by climate change and could also contribute to declines. If current rates of decline continue, we predict multiple extinctions in the coming decades. Kaua‘i represents an early warning for the forest bird communities on the Maui and Hawai‘i islands, as well as other species around the world that are trapped within a climatic space that is rapidly disappearing.

  8. Frequency and Content of Conversations About Pictorial Warnings on Cigarette Packs.

    PubMed

    Morgan, Jennifer C; Southwell, Brian G; Noar, Seth M; Ribisl, Kurt M; Golden, Shelley D; Brewer, Noel T

    2018-06-07

    Social interactions are a key mechanism through which health communication efforts, including pictorial cigarette pack warnings, may exert their effects. We sought to better understand social interactions elicited by pictorial cigarette pack warnings. A controlled trial randomly assigned US adult smokers (n = 2149) to have their cigarette packs labeled with pictorial or text-only warnings for 4 weeks. Smokers completed surveys during the baseline visit and each of the subsequent 4 weekly visits. Smokers with pictorial warnings on their packs had more conversations throughout the trial compared to those with text-only warnings (8.2 conversations vs 5.0, p<.01). The highest number of conversations occurred during the first week. Smokers with pictorial warnings were more likely than those with text-only warnings to discuss the health effects of smoking, whether the warnings would make them want to quit and whether the warnings would make others want to quit (all p < .05). Smokers were more likely to describe pictorial warnings as scary, gross, or depressing and gloomy during conversations than text-only warnings (all p < .05). Pictorial warnings sparked more conversations about the warnings, the health effects of smoking, and quitting smoking than text-only warnings. These social interactions may extend the reach of pictorial warnings beyond the targeted smoker and may be one of the processes by which pictorial warnings have impact. Health communication can influence behavior by changing social interactions. Our trial characterized social interactions about pictorial cigarette pack warnings with a large longitudinal sample in a real-world setting. Understanding these conversations can inform the United States and other countries as they improve existing warnings and help tobacco control policy makers and health communication theorists understand how social interactions triggered by warnings affect smoking.

  9. Impact of Graphic and Text Warnings on Cigarette Packs: Findings from Four Countries over Five Years

    PubMed Central

    Borland, Ron; Wilson, Nick; Fong, Geoffrey T.; Hammond, David; Cummings, K. Michael; Yong, Hua-Hie; Hosking, Warwick; Hastings, Gerard; Thrasher, James; McNeill, Ann

    2015-01-01

    Objectives To examine the impact of health warnings on smokers by comparing the short-term impact of new graphic (2006) Australian warnings with: (i) earlier (2003) United Kingdom (UK) larger text-based warnings; (ii) and Canadian graphic warnings (late 2000); and secondarily, to extend our understanding of warning wear-out. Methods The International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Survey (ITC Project) follows prospective cohorts (with replenishment) of adult smokers annually (5 waves: 2002–2006), in Canada, United States, UK, and Australia (around 2000 per country per wave; total n=17,773). Measures were of pack warning salience (reading and noticing); cognitive responses (thoughts of harm and quitting); and two behavioural responses: forgoing cigarettes and avoiding the warnings. Results All four indicators of impact increased markedly among Australian smokers following the introduction of graphic warnings. Controlling for date of introduction, they stimulated more cognitive responses than the UK (text-only) changes, and were avoided more, did not significantly increase forgoing cigarettes, but were read and noticed less. The findings also extend previous work showing partial wear-out of both graphic and text-only warnings, but the Canadian warnings have more sustained effects than UK ones. Conclusions Australia’s new health warnings increased reactions that are prospectively predictive of cessation activity. Warning size increases warning effectiveness and graphic warnings may be superior to text-based warnings. While there is partial wear-out in the initial impact associated with all warnings, stronger warnings tend to sustain their effects for longer. These findings support arguments for governments to exceed minimum FCTC requirements on warnings. PMID:19561362

  10. Looming auditory collision warnings for driving.

    PubMed

    Gray, Rob

    2011-02-01

    A driving simulator was used to compare the effectiveness of increasing intensity (looming) auditory warning signals with other types of auditory warnings. Auditory warnings have been shown to speed driver reaction time in rear-end collision situations; however, it is not clear which type of signal is the most effective. Although verbal and symbolic (e.g., a car horn) warnings have faster response times than abstract warnings, they often lead to more response errors. Participants (N=20) experienced four nonlooming auditory warnings (constant intensity, pulsed, ramped, and car horn), three looming auditory warnings ("veridical," "early," and "late"), and a no-warning condition. In 80% of the trials, warnings were activated when a critical response was required, and in 20% of the trials, the warnings were false alarms. For the early (late) looming warnings, the rate of change of intensity signaled a time to collision (TTC) that was shorter (longer) than the actual TTC. Veridical looming and car horn warnings had significantly faster brake reaction times (BRT) compared with the other nonlooming warnings (by 80 to 160 ms). However, the number of braking responses in false alarm conditions was significantly greater for the car horn. BRT increased significantly and systematically as the TTC signaled by the looming warning was changed from early to veridical to late. Looming auditory warnings produce the best combination of response speed and accuracy. The results indicate that looming auditory warnings can be used to effectively warn a driver about an impending collision.

  11. Earthquake Early Warning Beta Users: Java, Modeling, and Mobile Apps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strauss, J. A.; Vinci, M.; Steele, W. P.; Allen, R. M.; Hellweg, M.

    2014-12-01

    Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) is a system that can provide a few to tens of seconds warning prior to ground shaking at a user's location. The goal and purpose of such a system is to reduce, or minimize, the damage, costs, and casualties resulting from an earthquake. A demonstration earthquake early warning system (ShakeAlert) is undergoing testing in the United States by the UC Berkeley Seismological Laboratory, Caltech, ETH Zurich, University of Washington, the USGS, and beta users in California and the Pacific Northwest. The beta users receive earthquake information very rapidly in real-time and are providing feedback on their experiences of performance and potential uses within their organization. Beta user interactions allow the ShakeAlert team to discern: which alert delivery options are most effective, what changes would make the UserDisplay more useful in a pre-disaster situation, and most importantly, what actions users plan to take for various scenarios. Actions could include: personal safety approaches, such as drop cover, and hold on; automated processes and procedures, such as opening elevator or fire stations doors; or situational awareness. Users are beginning to determine which policy and technological changes may need to be enacted, and funding requirements to implement their automated controls. The use of models and mobile apps are beginning to augment the basic Java desktop applet. Modeling allows beta users to test their early warning responses against various scenarios without having to wait for a real event. Mobile apps are also changing the possible response landscape, providing other avenues for people to receive information. All of these combine to improve business continuity and resiliency.

  12. Do cigarette health warning labels comply with requirements: A 14-country study.

    PubMed

    Cohen, Joanna E; Brown, Jennifer; Washington, Carmen; Welding, Kevin; Ferguson, Jacqueline; Smith, Katherine C

    2016-12-01

    The Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, a global health treaty ratified by over 175 countries, calls on countries to ensure that tobacco packages carry health warning labels (HWLs) describing the harmful effects of tobacco use. We assessed the extent of compliance with 14 countries' HWL requirements. Unique cigarette packs were purchased in 2013 using a systematic protocol in 12 distinct neighborhoods within three of the ten most populous cities in the 14 low- and middle-income countries with the greatest number (count) of smokers. HWL compliance codebooks were developed for each country based on the details of country-specific HWL requirements, with up to four common compliance indicators assessed for each country (location, size, label elements, text size). Packs (n=1859) were double coded for compliance. Compliance was examined by country and pack characteristics, including parent company and brand family. Overall, 72% of coded cigarette packs were compliant with all relevant compliance indicators, ranging from 17% in the Philippines to 94% in Mexico. Compliance was highest for location of the warning (ranging from 75%-100%) and lowest for warning size (ranging from 46%-99%). Compliance was higher for packs bought in high SES neighborhoods, and varied by parent company and brand family. This multi-country study found at least one pack in every country - and many packs in some countries - that were not compliant with key requirements for health warning labels in the country of purchase. Non-compliance may be exacerbating health disparities. Tobacco companies should be held accountable for complying with country HWL requirements. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Suitability of seagrasses and submerged aquatic vegetation as indicators of eutrophication

    EPA Science Inventory

    Rooted submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) encompasses a large diversity of species that range from obligate halophytes such as, seagrasses, to euryhaline species and freshwater obligates. All seagrass and SAV provide key biological functions within the enclosed bays, estuaries, a...

  14. Adolescents' Responses to Pictorial Warnings on Their Parents' Cigarette Packs.

    PubMed

    Peebles, Kathryn; Hall, Marissa G; Pepper, Jessica K; Byron, M Justin; Noar, Seth M; Brewer, Noel T

    2016-12-01

    Pictorial cigarette pack warnings are a promising policy solution to increase smoking cessation among adults. However, little is known regarding adolescents' responses to pictorial warnings, particularly in real-world settings. Participants were 112 adolescent children, ages 13-17, whose parents received either text-only warnings on the side of their cigarette packs or pictorial warnings on the top half of the front and back of their cigarette packs for 4 weeks as part of a trial. We measured adolescents' recall and recognition of these warnings, negative emotional reactions to the warnings, perceived effectiveness of the warnings, social interactions about the warnings, and smoking risk beliefs. Adolescents accurately recalled pictorial warnings more often than text-only warnings (82% vs. 19%, p < .001). Recognition of warnings was also higher for pictorial than text-only warnings (82% vs. 34%, p < .001). Pictorial warnings drew greater attention (p < .001), elicited greater negative emotional reactions (p < .05), and sparked more social interactions (p < .01) than text-only warnings. Pictorial warnings on cigarette packs may have important effects on adolescent children of smokers. Future research should further investigate the impact of such messages on adolescents' susceptibility to smoking initiation and interest in quitting smoking, particularly as the United States and other countries work to implement pictorial warning regulations. Copyright © 2016 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Distribution and human health risk assessment of PAHs in four fish species from a SW Atlantic estuary.

    PubMed

    Oliva, Ana L; La Colla, Noelia S; Arias, Andrés H; Blasina, Gabriela E; Lopez Cazorla, Andrea; Marcovecchio, Jorge E

    2017-08-01

    The aim of this study is to assess-for the first time-the concentration of the 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the muscle tissues of four fish species (Micropogonias furnieri, Cynoscion guatucupa, Ramnogaster arcuata, and Mustelus schmitti) from Bahía Blanca estuary, Argentina and to evaluate their sources, distribution, and the human health risks implicated. Considering the four species under study, mean total PAH concentrations showed the following decreasing accumulation trend: M. schmitti, R. arcuata, C. guatucupa, and M. furnieri. Low molecular weight PAHs, such as naphthalene and phenanthrene, were generally predominant, displaying properties of PAH mixtures generated from petrogenic pollution. Of the four fish species analyzed, M. furnieri was the only one that did not raise any human consumption warning. In the case of the other species, exceeding values were found above the safety human consumption guidelines. Nevertheless, the screening criteria for carcinogenic PAHs proposed by the USEPA indicated a good quality status for these fish species.

  16. Trophic level responses differ as climate warms in Ireland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donnelly, Alison; Yu, Rong; Liu, Lingling

    2015-08-01

    Effective ecosystem functioning relies on successful species interaction. However, this delicate balance may be disrupted if species do not respond to environmental change at a similar rate. Here we examine trends in the timing of spring phenophases of groups of species occupying three trophic levels as a potential indicator of ecosystem response to climate warming in Ireland. The data sets were of varying length (1976-2009) and from varying locations: (1) timing of leaf unfolding and May Shoot of a range of broadleaf and conifer tree species, (2) first appearance dates of a range of moth species, and (3) first arrival dates of a range of spring migrant birds. All three groups revealed a statistically significant ( P<0.01 and P<0.001) advance in spring phenology that was driven by rising spring temperature ( P<0.05; 0.45 °C /decade). However, the rate of advance was greater for moths (1.8 days/year), followed by birds (0.37 days/year) and trees (0.29 days/year). In addition, the length of time between (1) moth emergence and leaf unfolding and (2) moth emergence and bird arrival decreased significantly ( P<0.05 and P<0.001, respectively), indicating a decrease in the timing between food supply and demand. These differing trophic level response rates demonstrate the potential for a mismatch in the timing of interdependent phenophases as temperatures rise. Even though these data were not specifically collected to examine climate warming impacts, we conclude that such data may be used as an early warning indicator and as a means to monitor the potential for future ecosystem disruption to occur as climate warms.

  17. Trophic level responses differ as climate warms in Ireland.

    PubMed

    Donnelly, Alison; Yu, Rong; Liu, Lingling

    2015-08-01

    Effective ecosystem functioning relies on successful species interaction. However, this delicate balance may be disrupted if species do not respond to environmental change at a similar rate. Here we examine trends in the timing of spring phenophases of groups of species occupying three trophic levels as a potential indicator of ecosystem response to climate warming in Ireland. The data sets were of varying length (1976-2009) and from varying locations: (1) timing of leaf unfolding and May Shoot of a range of broadleaf and conifer tree species, (2) first appearance dates of a range of moth species, and (3) first arrival dates of a range of spring migrant birds. All three groups revealed a statistically significant (P<0.01 and P<0.001) advance in spring phenology that was driven by rising spring temperature (P<0.05; 0.45 °C /decade). However, the rate of advance was greater for moths (1.8 days/year), followed by birds (0.37 days/year) and trees (0.29 days/year). In addition, the length of time between (1) moth emergence and leaf unfolding and (2) moth emergence and bird arrival decreased significantly (P<0.05 and P<0.001, respectively), indicating a decrease in the timing between food supply and demand. These differing trophic level response rates demonstrate the potential for a mismatch in the timing of interdependent phenophases as temperatures rise. Even though these data were not specifically collected to examine climate warming impacts, we conclude that such data may be used as an early warning indicator and as a means to monitor the potential for future ecosystem disruption to occur as climate warms.

  18. Anticipating land surface change

    PubMed Central

    Streeter, Richard; Dugmore, Andrew J.

    2013-01-01

    The interplay of human actions and natural processes over varied spatial and temporal scales can result in abrupt transitions between contrasting land surface states. Understanding these transitions is a key goal of sustainability science because they can represent abrupt losses of natural capital. This paper recognizes flickering between alternate land surface states in advance of threshold change and critical slowing down in advance of both threshold changes and noncritical transformation. The early warning signals we observe are rises in autocorrelation, variance, and skewness within millimeter-resolution thickness measurements of tephra layers deposited in A.D. 2010 and A.D. 2011. These signals reflect changing patterns of surface vegetation, which are known to provide early warning signals of critical transformations. They were observed toward migrating soil erosion fronts, cryoturbation limits, and expanding deflation zones, thus providing potential early warning signals of land surface change. The record of the spatial patterning of vegetation contained in contemporary tephra layers shows how proximity to land surface change could be assessed in the widespread regions affected by shallow layers of volcanic fallout (those that can be subsumed within the existing vegetation cover). This insight shows how we could use tephra layers in the stratigraphic record to identify “near misses,” close encounters with thresholds that did not lead to tipping points, and thus provide additional tools for archaeology, sustainability science, and contemporary land management. PMID:23530230

  19. Highlight on Supernova Early Warning at Daya Bay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, Hanyu

    Providing an early warning of supernova burst neutrinos is of importance in studying both supernova dynamics and neutrino physics. The Daya Bay Reactor Neutrino Experiment, with a unique feature of multiple liquid scintillator detectors, is sensitive to the full energy spectrum of supernova burst electron-antineutrinos. By utilizing 8 Antineutrino Detectors (ADs) in the three different experimental halls which are about 1 km's apart from each other, we obtain a powerful and prompt rejection of muon spallation background than single-detector experiments with the same target volume. A dedicated trigger system embedded in the data acquisition system has been installed to allow the detection of a coincidence of neutrino signals of all ADs via an inverse beta-decay (IBD) within a 10-second window, thus providing a robust early warning of a supernova occurrence within the Milky Way. An 8-AD associated supernova trigger table has been established theoretically to tabulate the 8-AD event counts' coincidence vs. the trigger rate. As a result, a golden trigger threshold, i.e. with a false alarm rate < 1/3-months, can be set as low as 6 candidates among the 8 detectors, leading to a 100% detection probability for all 1987A type supernova bursts at the distance to the Milky Way center and a 96% detection probability to those at the edge of the Milky Way.

  20. Predicting rates of interspecific interaction from phylogenetic trees.

    PubMed

    Nuismer, Scott L; Harmon, Luke J

    2015-01-01

    Integrating phylogenetic information can potentially improve our ability to explain species' traits, patterns of community assembly, the network structure of communities, and ecosystem function. In this study, we use mathematical models to explore the ecological and evolutionary factors that modulate the explanatory power of phylogenetic information for communities of species that interact within a single trophic level. We find that phylogenetic relationships among species can influence trait evolution and rates of interaction among species, but only under particular models of species interaction. For example, when interactions within communities are mediated by a mechanism of phenotype matching, phylogenetic trees make specific predictions about trait evolution and rates of interaction. In contrast, if interactions within a community depend on a mechanism of phenotype differences, phylogenetic information has little, if any, predictive power for trait evolution and interaction rate. Together, these results make clear and testable predictions for when and how evolutionary history is expected to influence contemporary rates of species interaction. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  1. The intermediate disturbance hypothesis applies to tropical forests, but disturbance contributes little to tree diversity.

    PubMed

    Bongers, Frans; Poorter, Lourens; Hawthorne, William D; Sheil, Douglas

    2009-08-01

    The intermediate disturbance hypothesis (IDH) predicts local species diversity to be maximal at an intermediate level of disturbance. Developed to explain species maintenance and diversity patterns in species-rich ecosystems such as tropical forests, tests of IDH in tropical forest remain scarce, small-scale and contentious. We use an unprecedented large-scale dataset (2504 one-hectare plots and 331,567 trees) to examine whether IDH explains tree diversity variation within wet, moist and dry tropical forests, and we analyse the underlying mechanism by determining responses within functional species groups. We find that disturbance explains more variation in diversity of dry than wet tropical forests. Pioneer species numbers increase with disturbance, shade-tolerant species decrease and intermediate species are indifferent. While diversity indeed peaks at intermediate disturbance levels little variation is explained outside dry forests, and disturbance is less important for species richness patterns in wet tropical rain forests than previously thought.

  2. Unravelling the architecture of functional variability in wild populations of Polygonum viviparum L

    PubMed Central

    Boucher, Florian C.; Thuiller, Wilfried; Arnoldi, Cindy; Albert, Cécile H.; Lavergne, Sébastien

    2014-01-01

    SUMMARY Functional variability (FV) of populations can be decomposed into three main features: the individual variability of multiple traits, the strength of correlations between those traits and the main direction of these correlations, the latter two being known as ‘phenotypic integration’. Evolutionary biology has long recognized that FV in natural populations is key to determining potential evolutionary responses, but this topic has been little studied in functional ecology. Here we focus on the arctico-alpine perennial plant species Polygonum viviparum L.. We used a comprehensive sampling of seven functional traits in 29 wild populations covering the whole environmental niche of the species. The niche of the species was captured by a temperature gradient, which separated alpine stressful habitats from species-rich, competitive sub-alpine ones. We seeked to assess the relative roles of abiotic stress and biotic interactions in shaping different aspects of functional variation within and among populations, that is, the multi-trait variability, the strength of correlations between traits, and the main directions of functional trade-offs. Populations with the highest extent of functional variability were found in the warm end of the gradient whereas populations exhibiting the strongest degree of phenotypic integration were located in sites with intermediate temperatures. This could reveal both the importance of environmental filtering and population demography in structuring FV. Interestingly, we found that the main axes of multivariate functional variation were radically different within and across population. Although the proximate causes of FV structure remain uncertain, our study presents a robust methodology for the quantitative study of functional variability in connection with species’ niches. It also opens up new perspectives for the conceptual merging of intraspecific functional patterns with community ecology. PMID:24790285

  3. Seasonal changes in the assembly mechanisms structuring tropical fish communities.

    PubMed

    Fitzgerald, Daniel B; Winemiller, Kirk O; Sabaj Pérez, Mark H; Sousa, Leandro M

    2017-01-01

    Despite growing interest in trait-based approaches to community assembly, little attention has been given to seasonal variation in trait distribution patterns. Mobile animals can rapidly mediate influences of environmental factors and species interactions through dispersal, suggesting that the relative importance of different assembly mechanisms can vary over short time scales. This study analyzes seasonal changes in functional trait distributions of tropical fishes in the Xingu River, a major tributary of the Amazon with large predictable temporal variation in hydrologic conditions and species density. Comparison of observed functional diversity revealed that species within wet-season assemblages were more functionally similar than those in dry-season assemblages. Further, species within wet-season assemblages were more similar than random expectations based on null model predictions. Higher functional richness within dry season communities is consistent with increased niche complementarity during the period when fish densities are highest and biotic interactions should be stronger; however, null model tests suggest that stochastic factors or a combination of assembly mechanisms influence dry-season assemblages. These results demonstrate that the relative influence of community assembly mechanisms can vary seasonally in response to changing abiotic conditions, and suggest that studies attempting to infer a single dominant mechanism from functional patterns may overlook important aspects of the assembly process. During the prolonged flood pulse of the wet season, expanded habitat and lower densities of aquatic organisms likely reduce the influence of competition and predation. This temporal shift in the influence of different assembly mechanisms, rather than any single mechanism, may play a large role in maintaining the structure and diversity of tropical rivers and perhaps other dynamic and biodiverse systems. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  4. Advances in the TRIDEC Cloud

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hammitzsch, Martin; Spazier, Johannes; Reißland, Sven

    2016-04-01

    The TRIDEC Cloud is a platform that merges several complementary cloud-based services for instant tsunami propagation calculations and automated background computation with graphics processing units (GPU), for web-mapping of hazard specific geospatial data, and for serving relevant functionality to handle, share, and communicate threat specific information in a collaborative and distributed environment. The platform offers a modern web-based graphical user interface so that operators in warning centres and stakeholders of other involved parties (e.g. CPAs, ministries) just need a standard web browser to access a full-fledged early warning and information system with unique interactive features such as Cloud Messages and Shared Maps. Furthermore, the TRIDEC Cloud can be accessed in different modes, e.g. the monitoring mode, which provides important functionality required to act in a real event, and the exercise-and-training mode, which enables training and exercises with virtual scenarios re-played by a scenario player. The software system architecture and open interfaces facilitate global coverage so that the system is applicable for any region in the world and allow the integration of different sensor systems as well as the integration of other hazard types and use cases different to tsunami early warning. Current advances of the TRIDEC Cloud platform will be summarized in this presentation.

  5. Comparison of rescue and relief activities within 72 hours of the atomic bombings in Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

    PubMed

    Matsunari, Yuko; Yoshimoto, Nao

    2013-12-01

    To clarify the factors and reasons for the differences in the outcomes of rescue and relief efforts in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, mainly focusing on the numbers of rescue/relief staffs and casualties in the period within 72 hours of the atomic bombings in August 1945. By retrieving the data and information from the records and reports concerning the disasters in the two cities, together with other publications as to the damages by the atomic bombings and subsequent rescue-relief activities, and restoration activities. It seems that there was less damage in Nagasaki, where a stronger atomic bomb was used than in Hiroshima. There were crucial geographic factors that led to the different effects in terms of the numbers of victims; however, systematic organization and mobilization of rescue and relief staffs, maintenance of functional transportation, and advanced medical knowledge and public warning with regard to disaster all may have contributed to a lower death toll and increase in survivors in Nagasaki.

  6. Adolescents' response to pictorial warnings on the reverse panel of cigarette packs: a repeat cross-sectional study.

    PubMed

    Moodie, Crawford; Mackintosh, Anne M; Hastings, Gerard

    2015-03-01

    The UK (UK) became the third country in the European Union to require pictorial warnings on the back of cigarette packs, in October 2008. A repeat cross-sectional survey was conducted with 11-16-year-olds in the UK between August and September 2008 (N=1401) and August and September 2011 (N=1373). At both waves the same text warnings appeared on the front and back of packs, with the only difference being the inclusion of images on the back of packs to support the text warnings in 2011. Warning related measures assessed were salience (noticing, looking closely at warnings), depth of processing (thinking about warnings, discussing them with others), comprehension and credibility (warning comprehensibility, believability and truthfulness), unaided recall, persuasiveness (warnings as a deterrent to smoking), avoidance techniques (eg, hiding packs) and a behavioural indicator (forgoing cigarettes due to warnings). For never smokers, warning persuasiveness and thinking about what warnings are telling them when the pack is in sight significantly increased from 2008 to 2011, but warning comprehensibility significantly decreased. For experimental smokers, there was a significant increase from 2008 to 2011 for warning persuasiveness, believing warnings and considering them truthful. For regular smokers, there were no significant changes from 2008 to 2011, except for an increase in hiding packs to avoid warnings and a decrease in warning salience. Including pictorial images on the back of cigarette packaging improved warning persuasiveness for never and experimental smokers, but had a negligible impact on regular smokers. The findings have implications for warning design. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  7. Markedly Divergent Tree Assemblage Responses to Tropical Forest Loss and Fragmentation across a Strong Seasonality Gradient.

    PubMed

    Orihuela, Rodrigo L L; Peres, Carlos A; Mendes, Gabriel; Jarenkow, João A; Tabarelli, Marcelo

    2015-01-01

    We examine the effects of forest fragmentation on the structure and composition of tree assemblages within three seasonal and aseasonal forest types of southern Brazil, including evergreen, Araucaria, and deciduous forests. We sampled three southernmost Atlantic Forest landscapes, including the largest continuous forest protected areas within each forest type. Tree assemblages in each forest type were sampled within 10 plots of 0.1 ha in both continuous forests and 10 adjacent forest fragments. All trees within each plot were assigned to trait categories describing their regeneration strategy, vertical stratification, seed-dispersal mode, seed size, and wood density. We detected differences among both forest types and landscape contexts in terms of overall tree species richness, and the density and species richness of different functional groups in terms of regeneration strategy, seed dispersal mode and woody density. Overall, evergreen forest fragments exhibited the largest deviations from continuous forest plots in assemblage structure. Evergreen, Araucaria and deciduous forests diverge in the functional composition of tree floras, particularly in relation to regeneration strategy and stress tolerance. By supporting a more diversified light-demanding and stress-tolerant flora with reduced richness and abundance of shade-tolerant, old-growth species, both deciduous and Araucaria forest tree assemblages are more intrinsically resilient to contemporary human-disturbances, including fragmentation-induced edge effects, in terms of species erosion and functional shifts. We suggest that these intrinsic differences in the direction and magnitude of responses to changes in landscape structure between forest types should guide a wide range of conservation strategies in restoring fragmented tropical forest landscapes worldwide.

  8. Markedly Divergent Tree Assemblage Responses to Tropical Forest Loss and Fragmentation across a Strong Seasonality Gradient

    PubMed Central

    Orihuela, Rodrigo L. L.; Peres, Carlos A.; Mendes, Gabriel; Jarenkow, João A.; Tabarelli, Marcelo

    2015-01-01

    We examine the effects of forest fragmentation on the structure and composition of tree assemblages within three seasonal and aseasonal forest types of southern Brazil, including evergreen, Araucaria, and deciduous forests. We sampled three southernmost Atlantic Forest landscapes, including the largest continuous forest protected areas within each forest type. Tree assemblages in each forest type were sampled within 10 plots of 0.1 ha in both continuous forests and 10 adjacent forest fragments. All trees within each plot were assigned to trait categories describing their regeneration strategy, vertical stratification, seed-dispersal mode, seed size, and wood density. We detected differences among both forest types and landscape contexts in terms of overall tree species richness, and the density and species richness of different functional groups in terms of regeneration strategy, seed dispersal mode and woody density. Overall, evergreen forest fragments exhibited the largest deviations from continuous forest plots in assemblage structure. Evergreen, Araucaria and deciduous forests diverge in the functional composition of tree floras, particularly in relation to regeneration strategy and stress tolerance. By supporting a more diversified light-demanding and stress-tolerant flora with reduced richness and abundance of shade-tolerant, old-growth species, both deciduous and Araucaria forest tree assemblages are more intrinsically resilient to contemporary human-disturbances, including fragmentation-induced edge effects, in terms of species erosion and functional shifts. We suggest that these intrinsic differences in the direction and magnitude of responses to changes in landscape structure between forest types should guide a wide range of conservation strategies in restoring fragmented tropical forest landscapes worldwide. PMID:26309252

  9. Egg Case Silk Gene Sequences from Argiope Spiders: Evidence for Multiple Loci and a Loss of Function Between Paralogs

    PubMed Central

    Chaw, R. Crystal; Collin, Matthew; Wimmer, Marjorie; Helmrick, Kara-Leigh; Hayashi, Cheryl Y.

    2017-01-01

    Spiders swath their eggs with silk to protect developing embryos and hatchlings. Egg case silks, like other fibrous spider silks, are primarily composed of proteins called spidroins (spidroin = spider-fibroin). Silks, and thus spidroins, are important throughout the lives of spiders, yet the evolution of spidroin genes has been relatively understudied. Spidroin genes are notoriously difficult to sequence because they are typically very long (≥ 10 kb of coding sequence) and highly repetitive. Here, we investigate the evolution of spider silk genes through long-read sequencing of Bacterial Artificial Chromosome (BAC) clones. We demonstrate that the silver garden spider Argiope argentata has multiple egg case spidroin loci with a loss of function at one locus. We also use degenerate PCR primers to search the genomic DNA of congeneric species and find evidence for multiple egg case spidroin loci in other Argiope spiders. Comparative analyses show that these multiple loci are more similar at the nucleotide level within a species than between species. This pattern is consistent with concerted evolution homogenizing gene copies within a genome. More complicated explanations include convergent evolution or recent independent gene duplications within each species. PMID:29127108

  10. Budding off: bringing functional genomics to Candida albicans.

    PubMed

    Anderson, Matthew Z; Bennett, Richard J

    2016-03-01

    Candida species are the most prevalent human fungal pathogens, with Candida albicans being the most clinically relevant species. Candida albicans resides as a commensal of the human gastrointestinal tract but is a frequent cause of opportunistic mucosal and systemic infections. Investigation of C. albicans virulence has traditionally relied on candidate gene approaches, but recent advances in functional genomics have now facilitated global, unbiased studies of gene function. Such studies include comparative genomics (both between and within Candida species), analysis of total RNA expression, and regulation and delineation of protein-DNA interactions. Additionally, large collections of mutant strains have begun to aid systematic screening of clinically relevant phenotypes. Here, we will highlight the development of functional genomics in C. albicans and discuss the use of these approaches to addressing both commensalism and pathogenesis in this species. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  11. Climate-suitable planting as a strategy for maintaining forest productivity and functional diversity.

    PubMed

    Duveneck, Matthew J; Scheller, Robert M

    2015-09-01

    Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate-suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS-II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000-2100) at a 2-ha cell resolution and five-year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region (northeastern Minnesota and northern lower Michigan, USA). We compared current climate to low- and high-emission futures. We simulated a low-emission climate future with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 B1 emission scenario and the Parallel Climate Model Global Circulation Model (GCM). We simulated a high-emission climate future with the IPCC A1FI emission scenario and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) GCM. We compared current forest management practices (business-as-usual) to CSP management. In the CSP scenario, we simulated a target planting of 5.28% and 4.97% of forested area per five-year time step in the Minnesota and Michigan landscapes, respectively. We found that simulated CSP species successfully established in both landscapes under all climate scenarios. The presence of CSP species generally increased simulated aboveground biomass. Species diversity increased due to CSP; however, the effect on functional diversity was variable. Because the planted species were functionally similar to many native species, CSP did not result in a consistent increase nor decrease in functional diversity. These results provide an assessment of the potential efficacy and limitations of CSP management. These results have management implications for sites where diversity and productivity are expected to decline. Future efforts to restore a specific species or forest type may not be possible, but CSP may sustain a more general ecosystem service (e.g., aboveground biomass).

  12. Tsunami Early Warning in Europe: NEAMWave Exercise 2012 - the Portuguese Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lendholt, Matthias; Hammmitzsch, Martin; Schulz, Jana; Reißland, Sven

    2013-04-01

    On 27th and 28th November 2012 the first European-wide tsunami exercise took place under the auspices of UNESCO Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas (ICG/NEAMTWS). Four international scenarios were performed - one for each candidate tsunami watch provider France, Greece, Portugal and Turkey. Their task was to generate and disseminate tsunami warning bulletins in-time and in compliance with the official NEAMTWS specifications. The Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera (IPMA, [1]) in Lissabon and the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI [2]) in Istanbul are the national agencies of Portugal and Turkey responsible for tsunami early warning. Both institutes are partners in the TRIDEC [3] project and were using the TRIDEC Natural Crisis Management (NCM) system during NEAMWave exercise. The software demonstrated the seamless integration of diverse components including sensor systems, simulation data, and dissemination hardware. The functionalities that were showcased significantly exceeded the internationally agreed range of capabilities. Special attention was given to the Command and Control User Interface (CCUI) serving as central application for the operator. Its origins lie in the DEWS project [4] but numerous new functionalities were added to master all requirements defined by the complex NEAMTWS workflows. It was of utmost importance to develop an application handling the complexity of tsunami science but providing a clearly arranged and comprehensible interface that disburdens the operator during time-critical hazard situations. [1] IPMA: www.ipma.pt/ [2] KOERI: www.koeri.boun.edu.tr/ [3] TRIDEC: www.tridec-online.eu [4] DEWS: www.dews-online.org

  13. Switch of Sensitivity Dynamics Revealed with DyGloSA Toolbox for Dynamical Global Sensitivity Analysis as an Early Warning for System's Critical Transition

    PubMed Central

    Baumuratova, Tatiana; Dobre, Simona; Bastogne, Thierry; Sauter, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    Systems with bifurcations may experience abrupt irreversible and often unwanted shifts in their performance, called critical transitions. For many systems like climate, economy, ecosystems it is highly desirable to identify indicators serving as early warnings of such regime shifts. Several statistical measures were recently proposed as early warnings of critical transitions including increased variance, autocorrelation and skewness of experimental or model-generated data. The lack of automatized tool for model-based prediction of critical transitions led to designing DyGloSA – a MATLAB toolbox for dynamical global parameter sensitivity analysis (GPSA) of ordinary differential equations models. We suggest that the switch in dynamics of parameter sensitivities revealed by our toolbox is an early warning that a system is approaching a critical transition. We illustrate the efficiency of our toolbox by analyzing several models with bifurcations and predicting the time periods when systems can still avoid going to a critical transition by manipulating certain parameter values, which is not detectable with the existing SA techniques. DyGloSA is based on the SBToolbox2 and contains functions, which compute dynamically the global sensitivity indices of the system by applying four main GPSA methods: eFAST, Sobol's ANOVA, PRCC and WALS. It includes parallelized versions of the functions enabling significant reduction of the computational time (up to 12 times). DyGloSA is freely available as a set of MATLAB scripts at http://bio.uni.lu/systems_biology/software/dyglosa. It requires installation of MATLAB (versions R2008b or later) and the Systems Biology Toolbox2 available at www.sbtoolbox2.org. DyGloSA can be run on Windows and Linux systems, -32 and -64 bits. PMID:24367574

  14. Switch of sensitivity dynamics revealed with DyGloSA toolbox for dynamical global sensitivity analysis as an early warning for system's critical transition.

    PubMed

    Baumuratova, Tatiana; Dobre, Simona; Bastogne, Thierry; Sauter, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    Systems with bifurcations may experience abrupt irreversible and often unwanted shifts in their performance, called critical transitions. For many systems like climate, economy, ecosystems it is highly desirable to identify indicators serving as early warnings of such regime shifts. Several statistical measures were recently proposed as early warnings of critical transitions including increased variance, autocorrelation and skewness of experimental or model-generated data. The lack of automatized tool for model-based prediction of critical transitions led to designing DyGloSA - a MATLAB toolbox for dynamical global parameter sensitivity analysis (GPSA) of ordinary differential equations models. We suggest that the switch in dynamics of parameter sensitivities revealed by our toolbox is an early warning that a system is approaching a critical transition. We illustrate the efficiency of our toolbox by analyzing several models with bifurcations and predicting the time periods when systems can still avoid going to a critical transition by manipulating certain parameter values, which is not detectable with the existing SA techniques. DyGloSA is based on the SBToolbox2 and contains functions, which compute dynamically the global sensitivity indices of the system by applying four main GPSA methods: eFAST, Sobol's ANOVA, PRCC and WALS. It includes parallelized versions of the functions enabling significant reduction of the computational time (up to 12 times). DyGloSA is freely available as a set of MATLAB scripts at http://bio.uni.lu/systems_biology/software/dyglosa. It requires installation of MATLAB (versions R2008b or later) and the Systems Biology Toolbox2 available at www.sbtoolbox2.org. DyGloSA can be run on Windows and Linux systems, -32 and -64 bits.

  15. Animal diversity and ecosystem functioning in dynamic food webs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schneider, Florian D.; Brose, Ulrich; Rall, Björn C.; Guill, Christian

    2016-10-01

    Species diversity is changing globally and locally, but the complexity of ecological communities hampers a general understanding of the consequences of animal species loss on ecosystem functioning. High animal diversity increases complementarity of herbivores but also increases feeding rates within the consumer guild. Depending on the balance of these counteracting mechanisms, species-rich animal communities may put plants under top-down control or may release them from grazing pressure. Using a dynamic food-web model with body-mass constraints, we simulate ecosystem functions of 20,000 communities of varying animal diversity. We show that diverse animal communities accumulate more biomass and are more exploitative on plants, despite their higher rates of intra-guild predation. However, they do not reduce plant biomass because the communities are composed of larger, and thus energetically more efficient, plant and animal species. This plasticity of community body-size structure reconciles the debate on the consequences of animal species loss for primary productivity.

  16. Size Matters a Lot: Drought-Affected Italian Oaks Are Smaller and Show Lower Growth Prior to Tree Death.

    PubMed

    Colangelo, Michele; Camarero, Jesús J; Borghetti, Marco; Gazol, Antonio; Gentilesca, Tiziana; Ripullone, Francesco

    2017-01-01

    Hydraulic theory suggests that tall trees are at greater risk of drought-triggered death caused by hydraulic failure than small trees. In addition the drop in growth, observed in several tree species prior to death, is often interpreted as an early-warning signal of impending death. We test these hypotheses by comparing size, growth, and wood-anatomy patterns of living and now-dead trees in two Italian oak forests showing recent mortality episodes. The mortality probability of trees is modeled as a function of recent growth and tree size. Drift-diffusion-jump (DDJ) metrics are used to detect early-warning signals. We found that the tallest trees of the anisohydric Italian oak better survived drought contrary to what was predicted by the theory. Dead trees were characterized by a lower height and radial-growth trend than living trees in both study sites. The growth reduction of now-dead trees started about 10 years prior to their death and after two severe spring droughts during the early 2000s. This critical transition in growth was detected by DDJ metrics in the most affected site. Dead trees were also more sensitive to drought stress in this site indicating different susceptibility to water shortage between trees. Dead trees did not form earlywood vessels with smaller lumen diameter than surviving trees but tended to form wider latewood vessels with a higher percentage of vessel area. Since living and dead trees showed similar competition we did not expect that moderate thinning and a reduction in tree density would increase the short-term survival probability of trees.

  17. Comparison of codon usage bias across Leishmania and Trypanosomatids to understand mRNA secondary structure, relative protein abundance and pathway functions.

    PubMed

    Subramanian, Abhishek; Sarkar, Ram Rup

    2015-10-01

    Understanding the variations in gene organization and its effect on the phenotype across different Leishmania species, and to study differential clinical manifestations of parasite within the host, we performed large scale analysis of codon usage patterns between Leishmania and other known Trypanosomatid species. We present the causes and consequences of codon usage bias in Leishmania genomes with respect to mutational pressure, translational selection and amino acid composition bias. We establish GC bias at wobble position that governs codon usage bias across Leishmania species, rather than amino acid composition bias. We found that, within Leishmania, homogenous codon context coding for less frequent amino acid pairs and codons avoiding formation of folding structures in mRNA are essentially chosen. We predicted putative differences in global expression between genes belonging to specific pathways across Leishmania. This explains the role of evolution in shaping the otherwise conserved genome to demonstrate species-specific function-level differences for efficient survival. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Cyber Signal/Noise Characteristics and Sensor Models for Early Cyber Indications and Warning

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2005-09-01

    investigating and simulating attack scenarios. The sensors are, in effect , mathematical functions. These functions range from simple functions of...172 8.1.2 Examine each attack scenario or case to derive the cause- effect network for the attack scenario...threat profiles............................ 174 8.1.4 Develop attack profiles by enlarging the cause- effect network of each attack scenario with

  19. Probabilistic assessment of roadway departure risk in a curve

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rey, G.; Clair, D.; Fogli, M.; Bernardin, F.

    2011-10-01

    Roadway departure while cornering constitutes a major part of car accidents and casualties in France. Even though drastic policy about overspeeding contributes to reduce accidents, there obviously exist other factors. This article presents the construction of a probabilistic strategy for the roadway departure risk assessment. A specific vehicle dynamic model is developed in which some parameters are modelled by random variables. These parameters are deduced from a sensitivity analysis to ensure an efficient representation of the inherent uncertainties of the system. Then, structural reliability methods are employed to assess the roadway departure risk in function of the initial conditions measured at the entrance of the curve. This study is conducted within the French national road safety project SARI that aims to implement a warning systems alerting the driver in case of dangerous situation.

  20. Emergency assessment of postwildfire debris-flow hazards for the 2011 Motor Fire, Sierra and Stanislaus National Forests, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cannon, Susan H.; Michael, John A.

    2011-01-01

    This report presents an emergency assessment of potential debris-flow hazards from basins burned by the 2011 Motor fire in the Sierra and Stanislaus National Forests, Calif. Statistical-empirical models are used to estimate the probability and volume of debris flows that may be produced from burned drainage basins as a function of different measures of basin burned extent, gradient, and soil physical properties, and in response to a 30-minute-duration, 10-year-recurrence rainstorm. Debris-flow probability and volume estimates are then combined to form a relative hazard ranking for each basin. This assessment provides critical information for issuing warnings, locating and designing mitigation measures, and planning evacuation timing and routes within the first two years following the fire.

  1. Functional group diversity of bee pollinators increases crop yield

    PubMed Central

    Hoehn, Patrick; Tscharntke, Teja; Tylianakis, Jason M; Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf

    2008-01-01

    Niche complementarity is a commonly invoked mechanism underlying the positive relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, but little empirical evidence exists for complementarity among pollinator species. This study related differences in three functional traits of pollinating bees (flower height preference, daily time of flower visitation and within-flower behaviour) to the seed set of the obligate cross-pollinated pumpkin Cucurbita moschata Duch. ex Poir. across a land-use intensity gradient from tropical rainforest and agroforests to grassland in Indonesia. Bee richness and abundance changed with habitat variables and we used this natural variation to test whether complementary resource use by the diverse pollinator community enhanced final yield. We found that pollinator diversity, but not abundance, was positively related to seed set of pumpkins. Bees showed species-specific spatial and temporal variation in flower visitation traits and within-flower behaviour, allowing for classification into functional guilds. Diversity of functional groups explained even more of the variance in seed set (r2=45%) than did species richness (r2=32%) highlighting the role of functional complementarity. Even though we do not provide experimental, but rather correlative evidence, we can link spatial and temporal complementarity in highly diverse pollinator communities to pollination success in the field, leading to enhanced crop yield without any managed honeybees. PMID:18595841

  2. Proteomic Characterization of the Major Arthropod Associates of the Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea

    PubMed Central

    Gotelli, Nicholas J.; Smith, Aidan M.; Ellison, Aaron M.; Ballif, Bryan A.

    2012-01-01

    The array of biomolecules generated by a functioning ecosystem represents both a potential resource for sustainable harvest and a potential indicator of ecosystem health and function. The cupped leaves of the carnivorous pitcher plant, Sarracenia purpurea, harbor a dynamic food web of aquatic invertebrates in a fully functional miniature ecosystem. The energetic base of this food web consists of insect prey, which is shredded by aquatic invertebrates and decomposed by microbes. Biomolecules and metabolites produced by this food web are actively exchanged with the photosynthesizing plant. In this report, we provide the first proteomic characterization of the sacrophagid fly (Fletcherimyia fletcheri), the pitcher plant mosquito (Wyeomyia smithii), and the pitcher-plant midge (Metriocnemus knabi). These three arthropods act as predators, filter feeders, and shredders at distinct trophic levels within the S. purpurea food web. More than 50 proteins from each species were identified, 10 of which were predominantly or uniquely found in one species. Furthermore, 19 peptides unique to one of the three species were identified using an assembled database of 100 metazoan myosin heavy chain orthologs. These molecular signatures may be useful in species monitoring within heterogeneous ecosystem biomass and may also serve as indicators of ecosystem state. PMID:21538880

  3. Thermal adaptation and diversity in tropical ecosystems: evidence from cicadas (Hemiptera, Cicadidae).

    PubMed

    Sanborn, Allen F; Heath, James E; Phillips, Polly K; Heath, Maxine S; Noriega, Fernando G

    2011-01-01

    The latitudinal gradient in species diversity is a central problem in ecology. Expeditions covering approximately 16°54' of longitude and 21°4' of latitude and eight Argentine phytogeographic regions provided thermal adaptation data for 64 species of cicadas. We test whether species diversity relates to the diversity of thermal environments within a habitat. There are general patterns of the thermal response values decreasing in cooler floristic provinces and decreasing maximum potential temperature within a habitat except in tropical forest ecosystems. Vertical stratification of the plant communities leads to stratification in species using specific layers of the habitat. There is a decrease in thermal tolerances in species from the understory communities in comparison to middle level or canopy fauna. The understory Herrera umbraphila Sanborn & Heath is the first diurnally active cicada identified as a thermoconforming species. The body temperature for activity in H. umbraphila is less than and significantly different from active body temperatures of all other studied species regardless of habitat affiliation. These data suggest that variability in thermal niches within the heterogeneous plant community of the tropical forest environments permits species diversification as species adapt their physiology to function more efficiently at temperatures different from their potential competitors.

  4. Identifying opportune landing sites in degraded visual environments with terrain and cultural databases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moody, Marc; Fisher, Robert; Little, J. Kristin

    2014-06-01

    Boeing has developed a degraded visual environment navigational aid that is flying on the Boeing AH-6 light attack helicopter. The navigational aid is a two dimensional software digital map underlay generated by the Boeing™ Geospatial Embedded Mapping Software (GEMS) and fully integrated with the operational flight program. The page format on the aircraft's multi function displays (MFD) is termed the Approach page. The existing work utilizes Digital Terrain Elevation Data (DTED) and OpenGL ES 2.0 graphics capabilities to compute the pertinent graphics underlay entirely on the graphics processor unit (GPU) within the AH-6 mission computer. The next release will incorporate cultural databases containing Digital Vertical Obstructions (DVO) to warn the crew of towers, buildings, and power lines when choosing an opportune landing site. Future IRAD will include Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) point cloud generating sensors to provide 2D and 3D synthetic vision on the final approach to the landing zone. Collision detection with respect to terrain, cultural, and point cloud datasets may be used to further augment the crew warning system. The techniques for creating the digital map underlay leverage the GPU almost entirely, making this solution viable on most embedded mission computing systems with an OpenGL ES 2.0 capable GPU. This paper focuses on the AH-6 crew interface process for determining a landing zone and flying the aircraft to it.

  5. Anthropogenic areas as incidental substitutes for original habitat.

    PubMed

    Martínez-Abraín, Alejandro; Jiménez, Juan

    2016-06-01

    One speaks of ecological substitutes when an introduced species performs, to some extent, the ecosystem function of an extirpated native species. We suggest that a similar case exists for habitats. Species evolve within ecosystems, but habitats can be destroyed or modified by natural and human-made causes. Sometimes habitat alteration forces animals to move to or remain in a suboptimal habitat type. In that case, the habitat is considered a refuge, and the species is called a refugee. Typically refugee species have lower population growth rates than in their original habitats. Human action may lead to the unintended generation of artificial or semiartificial habitat types that functionally resemble the essential features of the original habitat and thus allow a population growth rate of the same magnitude or higher than in the original habitat. We call such areas substitution habitats and define them as human-made habitats within the focal species range that by chance are partial substitutes for the species' original habitat. We call species occupying a substitution habitat adopted species. These are 2 new terms in conservation biology. Examples of substitution habitats are dams for European otters, wheat and rice fields for many steppeland and aquatic birds, and urban areas for storks, falcons, and swifts. Although substitution habitats can bring about increased resilience against the agents of global change, the conservation of original habitat types remains a conservation priority. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  6. Decrease of sexual organ reciprocity between heterostylous primrose species, with possible functional and evolutionary implications.

    PubMed

    Keller, Barbara; de Vos, Jurriaan M; Conti, Elena

    2012-11-01

    Heterostyly is a floral polymorphism that has fascinated evolutionary biologists since Darwin's seminal studies on primroses. The main morphological characteristic of heterostyly is the reciprocal placement of anthers and stigmas in two distinct (distyly) floral morphs. Variation in the degree of intermorph sexual reciprocity is relatively common and known to affect patterns of pollen transfer within species. However, the partitioning of sexual organ reciprocity within and between closely related species remains unknown. This study aimed at testing whether intermorph sexual reciprocity differs within vs. between primrose species that hybridize in nature and whether the positions of sexual organs are correlated with other floral traits. Six floral traits were measured in both floral morphs of 15 allopatric populations of Primula elatior, P. veris and P. vulgaris, and anther-stigma reciprocity was estimated within and between species. A combination of univariate and multivariate approaches was used to test whether positions of reproductive organs were less reciprocal between than within species, to assess correlations between sexual organ positions and other corolla traits, and to quantify differences between morphs and species. The three species were morphologically well differentiated in most floral traits, except that P. veris and P. vulgaris did not differ significantly in sexual organ positions. Overall, lower interspecific than intraspecific sexual organ reciprocity was detected. This decrease was marked between P. elatior and P. vulgaris, intermediate and variable between P. elatior and P. veris, but negligible between P. veris and P. vulgaris. Differences in anther and stigma heights between the analysed primrose species were of the same magnitude or larger than intraspecific differences that altered pollen flow within other heterostylous systems. Therefore, it is possible to suggest that considerable reductions of sexual organ reciprocity between species may lower interspecific pollen flow, with potential effects on reproductive isolation.

  7. 21 CFR 1141.12 - Incorporation by reference of required warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... SERVICES (CONTINUED) TOBACCO PRODUCTS CIGARETTE PACKAGE AND ADVERTISING WARNINGS Cigarette Package and Advertising Warnings § 1141.12 Incorporation by reference of required warnings. “Cigarette Required Warnings..., ATTN: Cigarette Warning File Requests, 9200 Corporate Blvd., Rockville, MD 20850, 1-877-CTP-1373, or...

  8. 37 CFR 11.21 - Warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Warnings. 11.21 Section 11.21... Proceedings; Jurisdiction, Sanctions, Investigations, and Proceedings § 11.21 Warnings. A warning is neither... warning. The warning shall contain a brief statement of facts and Mandatory Disciplinary Rules identified...

  9. 37 CFR 11.21 - Warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Warnings. 11.21 Section 11.21... Proceedings; Jurisdiction, Sanctions, Investigations, and Proceedings § 11.21 Warnings. A warning is neither... warning. The warning shall contain a brief statement of facts and Mandatory Disciplinary Rules identified...

  10. 37 CFR 11.21 - Warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Warnings. 11.21 Section 11.21... Proceedings; Jurisdiction, Sanctions, Investigations, and Proceedings § 11.21 Warnings. A warning is neither... warning. The warning shall contain a brief statement of facts and Mandatory Disciplinary Rules identified...

  11. Consistency of effects of tropical-forest disturbance on species composition and richness relative to use of indicator taxa.

    PubMed

    Stork, N E; Srivastava, D S; Eggleton, P; Hodda, M; Lawson, G; Leakey, R R B; Watt, A D

    2017-08-01

    Lawton et al. (1998) found, in a highly cited study, that the species richness of 8 taxa each responds differently to anthropogenic disturbance in Cameroon forests. Recent developments in conservation science suggest that net number of species is an insensitive measure of change and that understanding which species are affected by disturbance is more important. It is also recognized that all disturbance types are not equal in their effect on species and that grouping species according to function rather than taxonomy is more informative of responses of biodiversity to change. In a reanalysis of most of the original Cameroon data set (canopy and ground ants, termites, canopy beetles, nematodes, and butterflies), we focused on changes in species and functional composition rather than richness and used a more inclusive measure of forest disturbance based on 4 component drivers of change: years since disturbance, tree cover, soil compaction, and degree of tree removal. Effects of disturbance on compositional change were largely concordant between taxa. Contrary to Lawton et al.'s findings, species richness for most groups did not decline with disturbance level, providing support for the view that trends in species richness at local scales do not reflect the resilience of ecosystems to disturbance. Disturbance affected species composition more strongly than species richness for butterflies, canopy beetles, and litter ants. For these groups, disturbance caused species replacements rather than just species loss. Only termites showed effects of disturbance on species richness but not composition, indicating species loss without replacement. Although disturbance generally caused changes in composition, the strength of this relationship depended on the disturbance driver. Butterflies, litter ants, and nematodes were correlated with amount of tree cover, canopy beetles were most strongly correlated with time since disturbance, and termites were most strongly correlated with degree of soil disturbance. There were moderately divergent responses to disturbance between functional feeding groups. Disturbance was most strongly correlated with compositional differences of herbivores within beetles and nematodes and humus feeders within termites. Our results suggest that consideration of the impact of different forms of disturbance on species and functional composition, rather than on net numbers of species, is important when assessing the impacts of disturbance on biodiversity. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  12. United front may help prevent crisis.

    PubMed

    2003-03-01

    Warnings of looming crisis are all around us, including within services for older people. Recent reports warn that the care home sector is reaching a critical juncture and, without long-term planning and investment, crisis will turn to meltdown ( Burstow 2003 ). In the past five years something like 50,000 long-term care beds have been lost and now, according to the National Audit Office, tens of thousands of older people each year find themselves unable to leave hospital because there is insufficient post-hospital care (see page five ). Emergency hospital readmissions have increased by nearly 20 per cent over the past two years and the reality of intermediate care has yet to live up to the policy rhetoric.

  13. Extreme warming challenges sentinel status of kelp forests as indicators of climate change.

    PubMed

    Reed, Daniel; Washburn, Libe; Rassweiler, Andrew; Miller, Robert; Bell, Tom; Harrer, Shannon

    2016-12-13

    The desire to use sentinel species as early warning indicators of impending climate change effects on entire ecosystems is attractive, but we need to verify that such approaches have sound biological foundations. A recent large-scale warming event in the North Pacific Ocean of unprecedented magnitude and duration allowed us to evaluate the sentinel status of giant kelp, a coastal foundation species that thrives in cold, nutrient-rich waters and is considered sensitive to warming. Here, we show that giant kelp and the majority of species that associate with it did not presage ecosystem effects of extreme warming off southern California despite giant kelp's expected vulnerability. Our results challenge the general perception that kelp-dominated systems are highly vulnerable to extreme warming events and expose the more general risk of relying on supposed sentinel species that are assumed to be very sensitive to climate change.

  14. Extreme warming challenges sentinel status of kelp forests as indicators of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reed, Daniel; Washburn, Libe; Rassweiler, Andrew; Miller, Robert; Bell, Tom; Harrer, Shannon

    2016-12-01

    The desire to use sentinel species as early warning indicators of impending climate change effects on entire ecosystems is attractive, but we need to verify that such approaches have sound biological foundations. A recent large-scale warming event in the North Pacific Ocean of unprecedented magnitude and duration allowed us to evaluate the sentinel status of giant kelp, a coastal foundation species that thrives in cold, nutrient-rich waters and is considered sensitive to warming. Here, we show that giant kelp and the majority of species that associate with it did not presage ecosystem effects of extreme warming off southern California despite giant kelp's expected vulnerability. Our results challenge the general perception that kelp-dominated systems are highly vulnerable to extreme warming events and expose the more general risk of relying on supposed sentinel species that are assumed to be very sensitive to climate change.

  15. Augmented reality warnings in vehicles: Effects of modality and specificity on effectiveness.

    PubMed

    Schwarz, Felix; Fastenmeier, Wolfgang

    2017-04-01

    In the future, vehicles will be able to warn drivers of hidden dangers before they are visible. Specific warning information about these hazards could improve drivers' reactions and the warning effectiveness, but could also impair them, for example, by additional cognitive-processing costs. In a driving simulator study with 88 participants, we investigated the effects of modality (auditory vs. visual) and specificity (low vs. high) on warning effectiveness. For the specific warnings, we used augmented reality as an advanced technology to display the additional auditory or visual warning information. Part one of the study concentrates on the effectiveness of necessary warnings and part two on the drivers' compliance despite false alarms. For the first warning scenario, we found several positive main effects of specificity. However, subsequent effects of specificity were moderated by the modality of the warnings. The specific visual warnings were observed to have advantages over the three other warning designs concerning gaze and braking reaction times, passing speeds and collision rates. Besides the true alarms, braking reaction times as well as subjective evaluation after these warnings were still improved despite false alarms. The specific auditory warnings were revealed to have only a few advantages, but also several disadvantages. The results further indicate that the exact coding of additional information, beyond its mere amount and modality, plays an important role. Moreover, the observed advantages of the specific visual warnings highlight the potential benefit of augmented reality coding to improve future collision warnings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Availability and Reliability of Disaster Early Warning Systems and the IT Infrastructure Library

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wächter, J.; Loewe, P.

    2012-12-01

    The Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 caused an information catastrophy. Crucial early warning information could not be delivered to the communities under imminent threat, resulting in over 240,000 casualties in 14 countries. This tragedy sparked the development of a new generation of integrated modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). While significant advances were accomplished in the past years, recent events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key technical challenge for Tsunami Early Warning research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of status information and reliable early warning messages. A key challenge stems from the main objective of the IOC Tsunami Programme, the integration of national TEWS towards ocean-wide networks: Each of the increasing number of integrated Tsunami Early Warning Centres has to cope with the continuing evolution of sensors, hardware and software while having to maintain reliable inter-center information exchange services. To avoid future information catastrophes, the performance of all components, ranging from sensors to Warning Centers, has to be regularly validated against defined criteria. This task is complicated by the fact that in term of ICT system life cycles tsunami are very rare event resulting in very difficult framing conditions to safeguard the availability and reliability of TWS. Since 2004, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CEGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already: The German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), a European project funded under the sixth Framework Programme (FP6). These developments are continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises) funded under the European Union's seventh Framework Programme (FP7). This ongoing project focuses on real-time intelligent information management in Earth management and its long-term application. All technical development in TRIDEC is based on mature system architecture models and industry standards. The use of standards applies also to the operation of individual TRIDEC reference installations and their interlinking into an integrated service infrastructure for supranational warning services: A set of best practices for IT service management is used to align the TEWS software services with the requirements by the Early Warning Centre management by defining Service Level Agreements (SLA) and ensuring appliance. For this, the concept of service lifecycles is adapted for the TEWS domain, which is laid out in the IT Infrastructure Library (ITIL) by the United Kingdom's Office of Government Commerce (OGC). The cyclic procedures, tasks and checklists described by ITIL are used to establish a baseline to plan, implement, and maintain TEWS service components in the long run. This allows to ensure compliance with given international TEWS standards and to measure improvement of the provided services against a gold-standard.

  17. Monitoring Regional Forest Disturbances across the US with Near Real Time MODIS NDVI Products included in the ForWarn Forest Threat Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spruce, J.; Hargrove, W. W.; Gasser, J.; Norman, S. P.

    2013-12-01

    Forest threats across the US have become increasingly evident in recent years. These include regionally extensive disturbances (e.g., from drought, bark beetle outbreaks, and wildfires) that can occur across multiyear durations and result in extensive forest mortality. In addition, forests can be subject to ephemeral, sometimes yearly defoliation from various insects and types of storm damage. After prolonged severe disturbance, signs of forest recovery can vary in terms of satellite-based Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values. The increased extent and threat of forest disturbances in part led to the enactment of the 2003 Healthy Forest Restoration Act, which mandated that a national forest threat Early Warning System (EWS) be deployed. In response, the US Forest Service collaborated with NASA, DOE Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and the USGS Eros Data Center to build the near real time ForWarn forest threat EWS for monitoring regionally evident forest disturbances, starting on-line operations in 2010. Given the diversity of disturbance types, severities, and durations, ForWarn employs multiple historical baselines used with current NDVI to derive a suite of six nationwide 'weekly' forest change products. ForWarn uses daily 232 meter MODIS Aqua and Terra satellite NDVI data, including MOD13 products for deriving historical baseline NDVIs and eMODIS products for compiling current NDVI. Separately pre-processing the current and historical NDVIs, the Time Series Product Tool and the Phenological Parameters Estimation Tool are used to temporally reduce noise, fuse, and aggregate MODIS NDVIs into 24 day composites refreshed every 8 days with 46 dates of forest change products per year. The 24 day compositing interval typically enables new disturbances to be detected, while minimizing the frequency of residual atmospheric contamination. ForWarn's three standard forest change products compare current NDVI to that from the previous year, previous 3 years, and all previous years since 2000. Other forest change products added in 2013 include one for quicker disturbance detection and two others that adjust for seasonal fluctuations in normal vegetation phenology. This product suite and ForWarn's geospatial data viewer allow end users to view and assess disturbance dynamics for many regionally evident biotic and abiotic forest disturbances throughout a given current year. ForWarn's change products are also being used for forest change trend analysis and for developing regional forest overstory mortality products. They are used to alert forest health specialists about new regional forest disturbances. Such alerts also typically consider available Landsat, aerial, and ground data as well as communications with forest health specialists and previous experience. ForWarn products have been used to detect and track many types of regional disturbances for multiple forest types, including defoliation from caterpillars and severe storms, as well as mortality from both biotic and abiotic agents (e.g., bark beetles, drought, fire, anthropogenic clearing). ForWarn provides forest change products that could be combined with other geospatial data on forest biomass to help assess forest disturbance carbon impacts within the conterminous US.

  18. Co-Inheritance Analysis within the Domains of Life Substantially Improves Network Inference by Phylogenetic Profiling

    PubMed Central

    Shin, Junha; Lee, Insuk

    2015-01-01

    Phylogenetic profiling, a network inference method based on gene inheritance profiles, has been widely used to construct functional gene networks in microbes. However, its utility for network inference in higher eukaryotes has been limited. An improved algorithm with an in-depth understanding of pathway evolution may overcome this limitation. In this study, we investigated the effects of taxonomic structures on co-inheritance analysis using 2,144 reference species in four query species: Escherichia coli, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, Arabidopsis thaliana, and Homo sapiens. We observed three clusters of reference species based on a principal component analysis of the phylogenetic profiles, which correspond to the three domains of life—Archaea, Bacteria, and Eukaryota—suggesting that pathways inherit primarily within specific domains or lower-ranked taxonomic groups during speciation. Hence, the co-inheritance pattern within a taxonomic group may be eroded by confounding inheritance patterns from irrelevant taxonomic groups. We demonstrated that co-inheritance analysis within domains substantially improved network inference not only in microbe species but also in the higher eukaryotes, including humans. Although we observed two sub-domain clusters of reference species within Eukaryota, co-inheritance analysis within these sub-domain taxonomic groups only marginally improved network inference. Therefore, we conclude that co-inheritance analysis within domains is the optimal approach to network inference with the given reference species. The construction of a series of human gene networks with increasing sample sizes of the reference species for each domain revealed that the size of the high-accuracy networks increased as additional reference species genomes were included, suggesting that within-domain co-inheritance analysis will continue to expand human gene networks as genomes of additional species are sequenced. Taken together, we propose that co-inheritance analysis within the domains of life will greatly potentiate the use of the expected onslaught of sequenced genomes in the study of molecular pathways in higher eukaryotes. PMID:26394049

  19. Using a landslide inventory from online news to evaluate the performance of warning models for rainfall-induced landslides in Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pecoraro, Gaetano; Calvello, Michele

    2017-04-01

    In Italy rainfall-induced landslides pose a significant and widespread hazard, resulting in a large number of casualties and enormous economic damages. Mitigation of such a diffuse risk cannot be attained with structural measures only. With respect to the risk to life, early warning systems represent a viable and useful tool for landslide risk mitigation over wide areas. Inventories of rainfall-induced landslides are critical to support investigations of where and when landslides have happened and may occur in the future, i.e. to establish reliable correlations between rainfall characteristics and landslide occurrences. In this work a parametric study has been conducted to evaluate the performance of correlation models between rainfall and landslides over the Italian territory using the "FraneItalia" database, an inventory of landslides retrieved from online Italian journalistic news. The information reported for each record of this database always include: the site of occurrence of the landslides, the date of occurrence, the source of the news. Multiple landslides occurring in the same date, within the same province or region, are inventoried together in one single record of the database, in this case also reporting the number of landslides of the event. Each record the database may also include, if the related information is available: hour of occurrence; typology, volume and material of the landslide; activity phase; effects on people, structures, infrastructures, cars or other elements. The database currently contains six complete years of data (2010-2015), including more than 4000 landslide reports, most of them triggered by rainfall. For the aim of this study, different rainfall-landslides correlation models have been tested by analysing the reported landslides, within all the 144 zones identified by the national civil protection for weather-related warnings in Italy, in relation to satellite-based precipitations estimates from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) NASA mission. This remote sensing database contains gridded precipitation and precipitation-error estimates, with a half-hour temporal resolution and a 0.10-degree spatial resolution, covering most of the earth starting from 2014. It is well known that satellite estimates of rainfall have some limitations in resolving specific rainfall features (e.g., shallow orographic events and short-duration, high-intensity events), yet the temporal and spatial accuracy of the GPM data may be considered adequate in relation to the scale of the analysis and the size of the warning zones used for this study. The results of the parametric analysis conducted herein, although providing some indications on the most relevant rainfall conditions leading to widespread landsliding over a warning zone, must be considered preliminary as they show a very heterogeneous behaviour of the employed rainfall-based warning models over the Italian territory. Nevertheless, they clearly show the strong potential of the continuous multi-year landslide records available from the "FraneItalia" database as an important source of information to evaluate the performance of warning models at regional scale throughout Italy.

  20. 37 CFR 11.21 - Warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Warnings. 11.21 Section 11.21... Proceedings; Jurisdiction, Sanctions, Investigations, and Proceedings § 11.21 Warnings. A warning is neither... warning. The warning shall contain a brief statement of facts and USPTO Rules of Professional Conduct...

Some links on this page may take you to non-federal websites. Their policies may differ from this site.
Top