Impacts of fertilization on water quality of a drained pine plantation: a worst case scenario.

PubMed

Beltran, Bray J; Amatya, Devendra M; Youssef, Mohamed; Jones, Martin; Callahan, Timothy J; Skaggs, R Wayne; Nettles, Jami E

2010-01-01

Intensive plantation forestry will be increasingly important in the next 50 yr to meet the high demand for domestic wood in the United States. However, forest management practices can substantially influence downstream water quality and ecology. This study analyses, the effect of fertilization on effluent water quality of a low gradient drained coastal pine plantation in Carteret County, North Carolina using a paired watershed approach. The plantation consists of three watersheds, two mature (31-yr) and one young (8-yr) (age at treatment). One of the mature watersheds was commercially thinned in 2002. The mature unthinned watershed was designated as the control. The young and mature-thinned watersheds were fertilized at different rates with Arborite (Encee Chemical Sales, Inc., Bridgeton, NC), and boron. The outflow rates and nutrient concentrations in water drained from each of the watersheds were measured. Nutrient concentrations and loadings were analyzed using general linear models (GLM). Three large storm events occurred within 47 d of fertilization, which provided a worst case scenario for nutrient export from these watersheds to the receiving surface waters. Results showed that average nutrient concentrations soon after fertilization were significantly (alpha = 0.05) higher on both treatment watersheds than during any other period during the study. This increase in nutrient export was short lived and nutrient concentrations and loadings were back to prefertilization levels as soon as 3 mo after fertilization. Additionally, the mature-thinned watershed presented higher average nutrient concentrations and loadings when compared to the young watershed, which received a reduced fertilizer rate than the mature-thinned watershed.

Less than severe worst case accidents

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sanders, G.A.

1996-08-01

Many systems can provide tremendous benefit if operating correctly, produce only an inconvenience if they fail to operate, but have extreme consequences if they are only partially disabled such that they operate erratically or prematurely. In order to assure safety, systems are often tested against the most severe environments and accidents that are considered possible to ensure either safe operation or safe failure. However, it is often the less severe environments which result in the ``worst case accident`` since these are the conditions in which part of the system may be exposed or rendered unpredictable prior to total system failure.more » Some examples of less severe mechanical, thermal, and electrical environments which may actually be worst case are described as cautions for others in industries with high consequence operations or products.« less

Worst case analysis: Earth sensor assembly for the tropical rainfall measuring mission observatory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Conley, Michael P.

1993-01-01

This worst case analysis verifies that the TRMMESA electronic design is capable of maintaining performance requirements when subjected to worst case circuit conditions. The TRMMESA design is a proven heritage design and capable of withstanding the most worst case and adverse of circuit conditions. Changes made to the baseline DMSP design are relatively minor and do not adversely effect the worst case analysis of the TRMMESA electrical design.

SU-E-T-551: PTV Is the Worst-Case of CTV in Photon Therapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harrington, D; Liu, W; Park, P

2014-06-01

Purpose: To examine the supposition of the static dose cloud and adequacy of the planning target volume (PTV) dose distribution as the worst-case representation of clinical target volume (CTV) dose distribution for photon therapy in head and neck (H and N) plans. Methods: Five diverse H and N plans clinically delivered at our institution were selected. Isocenter for each plan was shifted positively and negatively in the three cardinal directions by a displacement equal to the PTV expansion on the CTV (3 mm) for a total of six shifted plans per original plan. The perturbed plan dose was recalculated inmore » Eclipse (AAA v11.0.30) using the same, fixed fluence map as the original plan. The dose distributions for all plans were exported from the treatment planning system to determine the worst-case CTV dose distributions for each nominal plan. Two worst-case distributions, cold and hot, were defined by selecting the minimum or maximum dose per voxel from all the perturbed plans. The resulting dose volume histograms (DVH) were examined to evaluate the worst-case CTV and nominal PTV dose distributions. Results: Inspection demonstrates that the CTV DVH in the nominal dose distribution is indeed bounded by the CTV DVHs in the worst-case dose distributions. Furthermore, comparison of the D95% for the worst-case (cold) CTV and nominal PTV distributions by Pearson's chi-square test shows excellent agreement for all plans. Conclusion: The assumption that the nominal dose distribution for PTV represents the worst-case dose distribution for CTV appears valid for the five plans under examination. Although the worst-case dose distributions are unphysical since the dose per voxel is chosen independently, the cold worst-case distribution serves as a lower bound for the worst-case possible CTV coverage. Minor discrepancies between the nominal PTV dose distribution and worst-case CTV dose distribution are expected since the dose cloud is not strictly static. This research was

Defining the worst case scenario for the Makran Subduction Zone: the 1008 AD tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffmann, Goesta

2016-04-01

correlated to the 1008 AD earthquake and tsunami inundation. The boulder deposits as well as the archaeological remains testify for a maximum tsunami runup of 15m, exceeding by far the inundation as observed in 1945. We define this as the worst case scenario for the Makran Subduction Zone. However, the return period is rather large (>500 years).

Evacuation planning for plausible worst case inundation scenarios in Honolulu, Hawaii.

PubMed

Kim, Karl; Pant, Pradip; Yamashita, Eric

2015-01-01

Honolulu is susceptible to coastal flooding hazards. Like other coastal cities, Honolulu&s long-term economic viability and sustainability depends on how well it can adapt to changes in the natural and built environment. While there is a disagreement over the magnitude and extent of localized impacts associated with climate change, it is widely accepted that by 2100 there will be at least a meter in sea level rise (SLR) and an increase in extreme weather events. Increased exposure and vulnerabilities associated with urbanization and location of human activities in coastal areas warrants serious consideration by planners and policy makers. This article has three objectives. First, flooding due to the combined effects of SLR and episodic hydro-meteorological and geophysical events in Honolulu are investigated and the risks to the community are quantified. Second, the risks and vulnerabilities of critical infrastructure and the surface transportation system are described. Third, using the travel demand software, travel distances and travel times for evacuation from inundated areas are modeled. Data from three inundation models were used. The first model simulated storm surge from a category 4 hurricane similar to Hurricane Iniki which devastated the island of Kauai in 1992. The second model estimates inundation based on five tsunamis that struck Hawaii. A 1-m increase in sea level was included in both the hurricane storm surge and tsunami flooding models. The third model used in this article generated a 500-year flood event due to riverine flooding. Using a uniform grid cell structure, the three inundation maps were used to assess the worst case flooding scenario. Based on the flood depths, the ruling hazard (hurricane, tsunami, or riverine flooding) for each grid cell was determined. The hazard layer was analyzed with socioeconomic data layers to determine the impact on vulnerable populations, economic activity, and critical infrastructure. The analysis focused both

Worst-Case Flutter Margins from F/A-18 Aircraft Aeroelastic Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lind, Rick; Brenner, Marty

1997-01-01

An approach for computing worst-case flutter margins has been formulated in a robust stability framework. Uncertainty operators are included with a linear model to describe modeling errors and flight variations. The structured singular value, micron, computes a stability margin which directly accounts for these uncertainties. This approach introduces a new method of computing flutter margins and an associated new parameter for describing these margins. The micron margins are robust margins which indicate worst-case stability estimates with respect to the defined uncertainty. Worst-case flutter margins are computed for the F/A-18 SRA using uncertainty sets generated by flight data analysis. The robust margins demonstrate flight conditions for flutter may lie closer to the flight envelope than previously estimated by p-k analysis.

Selection of Thermal Worst-Case Orbits via Modified Efficient Global Optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moeller, Timothy M.; Wilhite, Alan W.; Liles, Kaitlin A.

2014-01-01

Efficient Global Optimization (EGO) was used to select orbits with worst-case hot and cold thermal environments for the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) III. The SAGE III system thermal model changed substantially since the previous selection of worst-case orbits (which did not use the EGO method), so the selections were revised to ensure the worst cases are being captured. The EGO method consists of first conducting an initial set of parametric runs, generated with a space-filling Design of Experiments (DoE) method, then fitting a surrogate model to the data and searching for points of maximum Expected Improvement (EI) to conduct additional runs. The general EGO method was modified by using a multi-start optimizer to identify multiple new test points at each iteration. This modification facilitates parallel computing and decreases the burden of user interaction when the optimizer code is not integrated with the model. Thermal worst-case orbits for SAGE III were successfully identified and shown by direct comparison to be more severe than those identified in the previous selection. The EGO method is a useful tool for this application and can result in computational savings if the initial Design of Experiments (DoE) is selected appropriately.

A Framework to Improve Surgeon Communication in High-Stakes Surgical Decisions: Best Case/Worst Case.

PubMed

Taylor, Lauren J; Nabozny, Michael J; Steffens, Nicole M; Tucholka, Jennifer L; Brasel, Karen J; Johnson, Sara K; Zelenski, Amy; Rathouz, Paul J; Zhao, Qianqian; Kwekkeboom, Kristine L; Campbell, Toby C; Schwarze, Margaret L

2017-06-01

Although many older adults prefer to avoid burdensome interventions with limited ability to preserve their functional status, aggressive treatments, including surgery, are common near the end of life. Shared decision making is critical to achieve value-concordant treatment decisions and minimize unwanted care. However, communication in the acute inpatient setting is challenging. To evaluate the proof of concept of an intervention to teach surgeons to use the Best Case/Worst Case framework as a strategy to change surgeon communication and promote shared decision making during high-stakes surgical decisions. Our prospective pre-post study was conducted from June 2014 to August 2015, and data were analyzed using a mixed methods approach. The data were drawn from decision-making conversations between 32 older inpatients with an acute nonemergent surgical problem, 30 family members, and 25 surgeons at 1 tertiary care hospital in Madison, Wisconsin. A 2-hour training session to teach each study-enrolled surgeon to use the Best Case/Worst Case communication framework. We scored conversation transcripts using OPTION 5, an observer measure of shared decision making, and used qualitative content analysis to characterize patterns in conversation structure, description of outcomes, and deliberation over treatment alternatives. The study participants were patients aged 68 to 95 years (n = 32), 44% of whom had 5 or more comorbid conditions; family members of patients (n = 30); and surgeons (n = 17). The median OPTION 5 score improved from 41 preintervention (interquartile range, 26-66) to 74 after Best Case/Worst Case training (interquartile range, 60-81). Before training, surgeons described the patient's problem in conjunction with an operative solution, directed deliberation over options, listed discrete procedural risks, and did not integrate preferences into a treatment recommendation. After training, surgeons using Best Case/Worst Case clearly presented a choice between

The Avellino 3780-yr-B.P. catastrophe as a worst-case scenario for a future eruption at Vesuvius

PubMed Central

Mastrolorenzo, Giuseppe; Petrone, Pierpaolo; Pappalardo, Lucia; Sheridan, Michael F.

2006-01-01

A volcanic catastrophe even more devastating than the famous anno Domini 79 Pompeii eruption occurred during the Old Bronze Age at Vesuvius. The 3780-yr-B.P. Avellino plinian eruption produced an early violent pumice fallout and a late pyroclastic surge sequence that covered the volcano surroundings as far as 25 km away, burying land and villages. Here we present the reconstruction of this prehistoric catastrophe and its impact on the Bronze Age culture in Campania, drawn from an interdisciplinary volcanological and archaeoanthropological study. Evidence shows that a sudden, en masse evacuation of thousands of people occurred at the beginning of the eruption, before the last destructive plinian column collapse. Most of the fugitives likely survived, but the desertification of the total habitat due to the huge eruption size caused a social–demographic collapse and the abandonment of the entire area for centuries. Because an event of this scale is capable of devastating a broad territory that includes the present metropolitan district of Naples, it should be considered as a reference for the worst eruptive scenario at Vesuvius. PMID:16537390

Worst case estimation of homology design by convex analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yoshikawa, N.; Elishakoff, Isaac; Nakagiri, S.

1998-01-01

The methodology of homology design is investigated for optimum design of advanced structures. for which the achievement of delicate tasks by the aid of active control system is demanded. The proposed formulation of homology design, based on the finite element sensitivity analysis, necessarily requires the specification of external loadings. The formulation to evaluate the worst case for homology design caused by uncertain fluctuation of loadings is presented by means of the convex model of uncertainty, in which uncertainty variables are assigned to discretized nodal forces and are confined within a conceivable convex hull given as a hyperellipse. The worst case of the distortion from objective homologous deformation is estimated by the Lagrange multiplier method searching the point to maximize the error index on the boundary of the convex hull. The validity of the proposed method is demonstrated in a numerical example using the eleven-bar truss structure.

40 CFR 300.324 - Response to worst case discharges.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 28 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Response to worst case discharges. 300.324 Section 300.324 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) SUPERFUND, EMERGENCY PLANNING, AND COMMUNITY RIGHT-TO-KNOW PROGRAMS NATIONAL OIL AND HAZARDOUS SUBSTANCES POLLUTION...

40 CFR 300.324 - Response to worst case discharges.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 29 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Response to worst case discharges. 300.324 Section 300.324 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) SUPERFUND, EMERGENCY PLANNING, AND COMMUNITY RIGHT-TO-KNOW PROGRAMS NATIONAL OIL AND HAZARDOUS SUBSTANCES POLLUTION...

40 CFR 300.324 - Response to worst case discharges.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 29 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Response to worst case discharges. 300.324 Section 300.324 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) SUPERFUND, EMERGENCY PLANNING, AND COMMUNITY RIGHT-TO-KNOW PROGRAMS NATIONAL OIL AND HAZARDOUS SUBSTANCES POLLUTION...

40 CFR 300.324 - Response to worst case discharges.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 28 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Response to worst case discharges. 300.324 Section 300.324 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) SUPERFUND, EMERGENCY PLANNING, AND COMMUNITY RIGHT-TO-KNOW PROGRAMS NATIONAL OIL AND HAZARDOUS SUBSTANCES POLLUTION...

The Worst-Case Weighted Multi-Objective Game with an Application to Supply Chain Competitions.

PubMed

Qu, Shaojian; Ji, Ying

2016-01-01

In this paper, we propose a worst-case weighted approach to the multi-objective n-person non-zero sum game model where each player has more than one competing objective. Our "worst-case weighted multi-objective game" model supposes that each player has a set of weights to its objectives and wishes to minimize its maximum weighted sum objectives where the maximization is with respect to the set of weights. This new model gives rise to a new Pareto Nash equilibrium concept, which we call "robust-weighted Nash equilibrium". We prove that the robust-weighted Nash equilibria are guaranteed to exist even when the weight sets are unbounded. For the worst-case weighted multi-objective game with the weight sets of players all given as polytope, we show that a robust-weighted Nash equilibrium can be obtained by solving a mathematical program with equilibrium constraints (MPEC). For an application, we illustrate the usefulness of the worst-case weighted multi-objective game to a supply chain risk management problem under demand uncertainty. By the comparison with the existed weighted approach, we show that our method is more robust and can be more efficiently used for the real-world applications.

Estimation of human damage and economic loss of buildings for the worst-credible scenario of tsunami inundation in the city of Augusta, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pagnoni, Gianluca; Tinti, Stefano

2017-04-01

The city of Augusta is located in the southern part of the eastern coast of Sicily. Italian tsunami catalogue and paleo-tsunami surveys indicate that at least 7 events of tsunami affected the bay of Augusta in the last 4,000 years, two of which are associated with earthquakes (1169 and 1693) that destroyed the city. For these reasons Augusta has been chosen in the project ASTARTE as a test site for the study of issues related to tsunami hazard and risk. In last two years we studied hazard through the approach of the worst-case credible scenario and carried out vulnerability and damage analysis for buildings. In this work, we integrate that research, and estimate the damage to people and the economic loss of buildings due to structural damage. As regards inundation, we assume both uniform inundation levels (bath-tub hypothesis) and inundation data resulting from the worst-case scenario elaborated for the area by Armigliato et al. (2015). Human damage is calculated in three steps using the method introduced by Pagnoni et al. (2016) following the work by Terrier et al. (2012) and by Koshimura et al. (2009). First, we use census data to estimate the number of people present in each residential building affected by inundation; second, based on water column depth and building type, we evaluate the level of damage to people; third, we provide an estimate of fatalities. The economic loss is computed for two types of buildings (residential and trade-industrial) by using data on inundation and data from the real estate market. This study was funded by the EU Project ASTARTE - "Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe", Grant 603839, 7th FP (ENV.2013.6.4-3)

30 CFR 553.14 - How do I determine the worst case oil-spill discharge volume?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 30 Mineral Resources 2 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false How do I determine the worst case oil-spill... THE INTERIOR OFFSHORE OIL SPILL FINANCIAL RESPONSIBILITY FOR OFFSHORE FACILITIES Applicability and Amount of OSFR § 553.14 How do I determine the worst case oil-spill discharge volume? (a) To calculate...

30 CFR 253.14 - How do I determine the worst case oil-spill discharge volume?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 30 Mineral Resources 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false How do I determine the worst case oil-spill... INTERIOR OFFSHORE OIL SPILL FINANCIAL RESPONSIBILITY FOR OFFSHORE FACILITIES Applicability and Amount of OSFR § 253.14 How do I determine the worst case oil-spill discharge volume? (a) To calculate the amount...

30 CFR 553.14 - How do I determine the worst case oil-spill discharge volume?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 30 Mineral Resources 2 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false How do I determine the worst case oil-spill... THE INTERIOR OFFSHORE OIL SPILL FINANCIAL RESPONSIBILITY FOR OFFSHORE FACILITIES Applicability and Amount of OSFR § 553.14 How do I determine the worst case oil-spill discharge volume? (a) To calculate...

30 CFR 553.14 - How do I determine the worst case oil-spill discharge volume?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 30 Mineral Resources 2 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false How do I determine the worst case oil-spill... THE INTERIOR OFFSHORE OIL SPILL FINANCIAL RESPONSIBILITY FOR OFFSHORE FACILITIES Applicability and Amount of OSFR § 553.14 How do I determine the worst case oil-spill discharge volume? (a) To calculate...

30 CFR 253.14 - How do I determine the worst case oil-spill discharge volume?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 30 Mineral Resources 2 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false How do I determine the worst case oil-spill... ENFORCEMENT, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR OFFSHORE OIL SPILL FINANCIAL RESPONSIBILITY FOR OFFSHORE FACILITIES Applicability and Amount of OSFR § 253.14 How do I determine the worst case oil-spill discharge volume? (a) To...

The worst case scenario: Locomotor and collision demands of the longest periods of gameplay in professional rugby union.

PubMed

Reardon, Cillian; Tobin, Daniel P; Tierney, Peter; Delahunt, Eamonn

2017-01-01

A number of studies have used global positioning systems (GPS) to report on positional differences in the physical game demands of rugby union both on an average and singular bout basis. However, the ability of these studies to report quantitative data is limited by a lack of validation of certain aspects of measurement by GPS micro-technology. Furthermore no study has analyzed the positional physical demands of the longest bouts of ball-in-play time in rugby union. The aim of the present study is to compare the demands of the single longest period of ball-in-play, termed "worst case scenario" (WCS) between positional groups, which have previously been reported to have distinguishable game demands. The results of this study indicate that WCS periods follow a similar sporadic pattern as average demands but are played at a far higher pace than previously reported for average game demands with average meters per minute of 116.8 m. The positional differences in running and collision activity previously reported are perpetuated within WCS periods. Backs covered greater total distances than forwards (318 m vs 289 m), carried out more high-speed running (11.1 m·min-1 vs 5.5 m·min-1) and achieved higher maximum velocities (MaxVel). Outside Backs achieved the highest MaxVel values (6.84 m·sec-1). Tight Five and Back Row forwards underwent significantly more collisions than Inside Back and Outside Backs (0.73 & 0.89 collisions·min-1 vs 0.28 & 0.41 collisions·min-1 respectively). The results of the present study provide information on the positional physical requirements of performance in prolonged periods involving multiple high intensity bursts of effort. Although the current state of GPS micro-technology as a measurement tool does not permit reporting of collision intensity or acceleration data, the combined use of video and GPS provides valuable information to the practitioner. This can be used to match and replicate game demands in training.

Sensitivity of worst-case strom surge considering influence of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takayabu, Izuru; Hibino, Kenshi; Sasaki, Hidetaka; Shiogama, Hideo; Mori, Nobuhito; Shibutani, Yoko; Takemi, Tetsuya

2016-04-01

There are two standpoints when assessing risk caused by climate change. One is how to prevent disaster. For this purpose, we get probabilistic information of meteorological elements, from enough number of ensemble simulations. Another one is to consider disaster mitigation. For this purpose, we have to use very high resolution sophisticated model to represent a worst case event in detail. If we could use enough computer resources to drive many ensemble runs with very high resolution model, we can handle these all themes in one time. However resources are unfortunately limited in most cases, and we have to select the resolution or the number of simulations if we design the experiment. Applying PGWD (Pseudo Global Warming Downscaling) method is one solution to analyze a worst case event in detail. Here we introduce an example to find climate change influence on the worst case storm-surge, by applying PGWD to a super typhoon Haiyan (Takayabu et al, 2015). 1 km grid WRF model could represent both the intensity and structure of a super typhoon. By adopting PGWD method, we can only estimate the influence of climate change on the development process of the Typhoon. Instead, the changes in genesis could not be estimated. Finally, we drove SU-WAT model (which includes shallow water equation model) to get the signal of storm surge height. The result indicates that the height of the storm surge increased up to 20% owing to these 150 years climate change.

The Worst-Case Weighted Multi-Objective Game with an Application to Supply Chain Competitions

PubMed Central

Qu, Shaojian; Ji, Ying

2016-01-01

In this paper, we propose a worst-case weighted approach to the multi-objective n-person non-zero sum game model where each player has more than one competing objective. Our “worst-case weighted multi-objective game” model supposes that each player has a set of weights to its objectives and wishes to minimize its maximum weighted sum objectives where the maximization is with respect to the set of weights. This new model gives rise to a new Pareto Nash equilibrium concept, which we call “robust-weighted Nash equilibrium”. We prove that the robust-weighted Nash equilibria are guaranteed to exist even when the weight sets are unbounded. For the worst-case weighted multi-objective game with the weight sets of players all given as polytope, we show that a robust-weighted Nash equilibrium can be obtained by solving a mathematical program with equilibrium constraints (MPEC). For an application, we illustrate the usefulness of the worst-case weighted multi-objective game to a supply chain risk management problem under demand uncertainty. By the comparison with the existed weighted approach, we show that our method is more robust and can be more efficiently used for the real-world applications. PMID:26820512

Comparison of linear and nonlinear programming approaches for "worst case dose" and "minmax" robust optimization of intensity-modulated proton therapy dose distributions.

PubMed

Zaghian, Maryam; Cao, Wenhua; Liu, Wei; Kardar, Laleh; Randeniya, Sharmalee; Mohan, Radhe; Lim, Gino

2017-03-01

Robust optimization of intensity-modulated proton therapy (IMPT) takes uncertainties into account during spot weight optimization and leads to dose distributions that are resilient to uncertainties. Previous studies demonstrated benefits of linear programming (LP) for IMPT in terms of delivery efficiency by considerably reducing the number of spots required for the same quality of plans. However, a reduction in the number of spots may lead to loss of robustness. The purpose of this study was to evaluate and compare the performance in terms of plan quality and robustness of two robust optimization approaches using LP and nonlinear programming (NLP) models. The so-called "worst case dose" and "minmax" robust optimization approaches and conventional planning target volume (PTV)-based optimization approach were applied to designing IMPT plans for five patients: two with prostate cancer, one with skull-based cancer, and two with head and neck cancer. For each approach, both LP and NLP models were used. Thus, for each case, six sets of IMPT plans were generated and assessed: LP-PTV-based, NLP-PTV-based, LP-worst case dose, NLP-worst case dose, LP-minmax, and NLP-minmax. The four robust optimization methods behaved differently from patient to patient, and no method emerged as superior to the others in terms of nominal plan quality and robustness against uncertainties. The plans generated using LP-based robust optimization were more robust regarding patient setup and range uncertainties than were those generated using NLP-based robust optimization for the prostate cancer patients. However, the robustness of plans generated using NLP-based methods was superior for the skull-based and head and neck cancer patients. Overall, LP-based methods were suitable for the less challenging cancer cases in which all uncertainty scenarios were able to satisfy tight dose constraints, while NLP performed better in more difficult cases in which most uncertainty scenarios were hard to meet

Assessing oral bioaccessibility of trace elements in soils under worst-case scenarios by automated in-line dynamic extraction as a front end to inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry.

PubMed

Rosende, María; Magalhães, Luis M; Segundo, Marcela A; Miró, Manuel

2014-09-09

A novel biomimetic extraction procedure that allows for the in-line handing of ≥400 mg solid substrates is herein proposed for automatic ascertainment of trace element (TE) bioaccessibility in soils under worst-case conditions as per recommendations of ISO norms. A unified bioaccessibility/BARGE method (UBM)-like physiological-based extraction test is evaluated for the first time in a dynamic format for accurate assessment of in-vitro bioaccessibility of Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn in forest and residential-garden soils by on-line coupling of a hybrid flow set-up to inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry. Three biologically relevant operational extraction modes mimicking: (i) gastric juice extraction alone; (ii) saliva and gastric juice composite in unidirectional flow extraction format and (iii) saliva and gastric juice composite in a recirculation mode were thoroughly investigated. The extraction profiles of the three configurations using digestive fluids were proven to fit a first order reaction kinetic model for estimating the maximum TE bioaccessibility, that is, the actual worst-case scenario in human risk assessment protocols. A full factorial design, in which the sample amount (400-800 mg), the extractant flow rate (0.5-1.5 mL min(-1)) and the extraction temperature (27-37°C) were selected as variables for the multivariate optimization studies in order to obtain the maximum TE extractability. Two soils of varied physicochemical properties were analysed and no significant differences were found at the 0.05 significance level between the summation of leached concentrations of TE in gastric juice plus the residual fraction and the total concentration of the overall assayed metals determined by microwave digestion. These results showed the reliability and lack of bias (trueness) of the automatic biomimetic extraction approach using digestive juices. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Preliminary Analysis of Aircraft Loss of Control Accidents: Worst Case Precursor Combinations and Temporal Sequencing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Belcastro, Christine M.; Groff, Loren; Newman, Richard L.; Foster, John V.; Crider, Dennis H.; Klyde, David H.; Huston, A. McCall

2014-01-01

Aircraft loss of control (LOC) is a leading cause of fatal accidents across all transport airplane and operational classes, and can result from a wide spectrum of hazards, often occurring in combination. Technologies developed for LOC prevention and recovery must therefore be effective under a wide variety of conditions and uncertainties, including multiple hazards, and their validation must provide a means of assessing system effectiveness and coverage of these hazards. This requires the definition of a comprehensive set of LOC test scenarios based on accident and incident data as well as future risks. This paper defines a comprehensive set of accidents and incidents over a recent 15 year period, and presents preliminary analysis results to identify worst-case combinations of causal and contributing factors (i.e., accident precursors) and how they sequence in time. Such analyses can provide insight in developing effective solutions for LOC, and form the basis for developing test scenarios that can be used in evaluating them. Preliminary findings based on the results of this paper indicate that system failures or malfunctions, crew actions or inactions, vehicle impairment conditions, and vehicle upsets contributed the most to accidents and fatalities, followed by inclement weather or atmospheric disturbances and poor visibility. Follow-on research will include finalizing the analysis through a team consensus process, defining future risks, and developing a comprehensive set of test scenarios with correlation to the accidents, incidents, and future risks. Since enhanced engineering simulations are required for batch and piloted evaluations under realistic LOC precursor conditions, these test scenarios can also serve as a high-level requirement for defining the engineering simulation enhancements needed for generating them.

Conceptual modeling for identification of worst case conditions in environmental risk assessment of nanomaterials using nZVI and C60 as case studies.

PubMed

Grieger, Khara D; Hansen, Steffen F; Sørensen, Peter B; Baun, Anders

2011-09-01

Conducting environmental risk assessment of engineered nanomaterials has been an extremely challenging endeavor thus far. Moreover, recent findings from the nano-risk scientific community indicate that it is unlikely that many of these challenges will be easily resolved in the near future, especially given the vast variety and complexity of nanomaterials and their applications. As an approach to help optimize environmental risk assessments of nanomaterials, we apply the Worst-Case Definition (WCD) model to identify best estimates for worst-case conditions of environmental risks of two case studies which use engineered nanoparticles, namely nZVI in soil and groundwater remediation and C(60) in an engine oil lubricant. Results generated from this analysis may ultimately help prioritize research areas for environmental risk assessments of nZVI and C(60) in these applications as well as demonstrate the use of worst-case conditions to optimize future research efforts for other nanomaterials. Through the application of the WCD model, we find that the most probable worst-case conditions for both case studies include i) active uptake mechanisms, ii) accumulation in organisms, iii) ecotoxicological response mechanisms such as reactive oxygen species (ROS) production and cell membrane damage or disruption, iv) surface properties of nZVI and C(60), and v) acute exposure tolerance of organisms. Additional estimates of worst-case conditions for C(60) also include the physical location of C(60) in the environment from surface run-off, cellular exposure routes for heterotrophic organisms, and the presence of light to amplify adverse effects. Based on results of this analysis, we recommend the prioritization of research for the selected applications within the following areas: organism active uptake ability of nZVI and C(60) and ecotoxicological response end-points and response mechanisms including ROS production and cell membrane damage, full nanomaterial characterization taking

The Undergraduate Curriculum: The Best and the Worst.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woloshin, David J.

1983-01-01

Reviews various aspects of the undergraduate foreign language curriculum over the past decade and identifies the strengths and weaknesses of that curriculum. Outlines the best and worst scenarios which could occur during the next 10 years and suggests means which can assure that undergraduate foreign language education will meet future needs. (EKN)

Worst-case space radiation environments for geocentric missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stassinopoulos, E. G.; Seltzer, S. M.

1976-01-01

Worst-case possible annual radiation fluences of energetic charged particles in the terrestrial space environment, and the resultant depth-dose distributions in aluminum, were calculated in order to establish absolute upper limits to the radiation exposure of spacecraft in geocentric orbits. The results are a concise set of data intended to aid in the determination of the feasibility of a particular mission. The data may further serve as guidelines in the evaluation of standard spacecraft components. Calculations were performed for each significant particle species populating or visiting the magnetosphere, on the basis of volume occupied by or accessible to the respective species. Thus, magnetospheric space was divided into five distinct regions using the magnetic shell parameter L, which gives the approximate geocentric distance (in earth radii) of a field line's equatorial intersect.

Optimal Analyses for 3×n AB Games in the Worst Case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Li-Te; Lin, Shun-Shii

The past decades have witnessed a growing interest in research on deductive games such as Mastermind and AB game. Because of the complicated behavior of deductive games, tree-search approaches are often adopted to find their optimal strategies. In this paper, a generalized version of deductive games, called 3×n AB games, is introduced. However, traditional tree-search approaches are not appropriate for solving this problem since it can only solve instances with smaller n. For larger values of n, a systematic approach is necessary. Therefore, intensive analyses of playing 3×n AB games in the worst case optimally are conducted and a sophisticated method, called structural reduction, which aims at explaining the worst situation in this game is developed in the study. Furthermore, a worthwhile formula for calculating the optimal numbers of guesses required for arbitrary values of n is derived and proven to be final.

A Worst-Case Approach for On-Line Flutter Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lind, Rick C.; Brenner, Martin J.

1998-01-01

Worst-case flutter margins may be computed for a linear model with respect to a set of uncertainty operators using the structured singular value. This paper considers an on-line implementation to compute these robust margins in a flight test program. Uncertainty descriptions are updated at test points to account for unmodeled time-varying dynamics of the airplane by ensuring the robust model is not invalidated by measured flight data. Robust margins computed with respect to this uncertainty remain conservative to the changing dynamics throughout the flight. A simulation clearly demonstrates this method can improve the efficiency of flight testing by accurately predicting the flutter margin to improve safety while reducing the necessary flight time.

Discussions On Worst-Case Test Condition For Single Event Burnout

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Sandra; Zafrani, Max; Sherman, Phillip

2011-10-01

This paper discusses the failure characteristics of single- event burnout (SEB) on power MOSFETs based on analyzing the quasi-stationary avalanche simulation curves. The analyses show the worst-case test condition for SEB would be using the ion that has the highest mass that would result in the highest transient current due to charge deposition and displacement damage. The analyses also show it is possible to build power MOSFETs that will not exhibit SEB even when tested with the heaviest ion, which have been verified by heavy ion test data on SEB sensitive and SEB immune devices.

Phylogenetic diversity, functional trait diversity and extinction: avoiding tipping points and worst-case losses.

PubMed

Faith, Daniel P

2015-02-19

The phylogenetic diversity measure, ('PD'), measures the relative feature diversity of different subsets of taxa from a phylogeny. At the level of feature diversity, PD supports the broad goal of biodiversity conservation to maintain living variation and option values. PD calculations at the level of lineages and features include those integrating probabilities of extinction, providing estimates of expected PD. This approach has known advantages over the evolutionarily distinct and globally endangered (EDGE) methods. Expected PD methods also have limitations. An alternative notion of expected diversity, expected functional trait diversity, relies on an alternative non-phylogenetic model and allows inferences of diversity at the level of functional traits. Expected PD also faces challenges in helping to address phylogenetic tipping points and worst-case PD losses. Expected PD may not choose conservation options that best avoid worst-case losses of long branches from the tree of life. We can expand the range of useful calculations based on expected PD, including methods for identifying phylogenetic key biodiversity areas. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Phylogenetic diversity, functional trait diversity and extinction: avoiding tipping points and worst-case losses

PubMed Central

Faith, Daniel P.

2015-01-01

The phylogenetic diversity measure, (‘PD’), measures the relative feature diversity of different subsets of taxa from a phylogeny. At the level of feature diversity, PD supports the broad goal of biodiversity conservation to maintain living variation and option values. PD calculations at the level of lineages and features include those integrating probabilities of extinction, providing estimates of expected PD. This approach has known advantages over the evolutionarily distinct and globally endangered (EDGE) methods. Expected PD methods also have limitations. An alternative notion of expected diversity, expected functional trait diversity, relies on an alternative non-phylogenetic model and allows inferences of diversity at the level of functional traits. Expected PD also faces challenges in helping to address phylogenetic tipping points and worst-case PD losses. Expected PD may not choose conservation options that best avoid worst-case losses of long branches from the tree of life. We can expand the range of useful calculations based on expected PD, including methods for identifying phylogenetic key biodiversity areas. PMID:25561672

Scenario planning.

PubMed

Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

2011-03-01

In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

40 CFR Appendix D to Part 112 - Determination of a Worst Case Discharge Planning Volume

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 23 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Determination of a Worst Case Discharge Planning Volume D Appendix D to Part 112 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) WATER PROGRAMS OIL POLLUTION PREVENTION Pt. 112, App. D Appendix D to Part 112—Determination of a...

40 CFR Appendix D to Part 112 - Determination of a Worst Case Discharge Planning Volume

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Determination of a Worst Case Discharge Planning Volume D Appendix D to Part 112 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) WATER PROGRAMS OIL POLLUTION PREVENTION Pt. 112, App. D Appendix D to Part 112—Determination of a...

40 CFR Appendix D to Part 112 - Determination of a Worst Case Discharge Planning Volume

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2014-07-01 2013-07-01 true Determination of a Worst Case Discharge Planning Volume D Appendix D to Part 112 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) WATER PROGRAMS OIL POLLUTION PREVENTION Pt. 112, App. D Appendix D to Part 112—Determination of a...

40 CFR Appendix D to Part 112 - Determination of a Worst Case Discharge Planning Volume

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Determination of a Worst Case Discharge Planning Volume D Appendix D to Part 112 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) WATER PROGRAMS OIL POLLUTION PREVENTION Pt. 112, App. D Appendix D to Part 112—Determination of a...

40 CFR Appendix D to Part 112 - Determination of a Worst Case Discharge Planning Volume

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 23 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Determination of a Worst Case Discharge Planning Volume D Appendix D to Part 112 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) WATER PROGRAMS OIL POLLUTION PREVENTION Pt. 112, App. D Appendix D to Part 112—Determination of a...

Space Environment Effects: Model for Emission of Solar Protons (ESP): Cumulative and Worst Case Event Fluences

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xapsos, M. A.; Barth, J. L.; Stassinopoulos, E. G.; Burke, E. A.; Gee, G. B.

1999-01-01

The effects that solar proton events have on microelectronics and solar arrays are important considerations for spacecraft in geostationary and polar orbits and for interplanetary missions. Designers of spacecraft and mission planners are required to assess the performance of microelectronic systems under a variety of conditions. A number of useful approaches exist for predicting information about solar proton event fluences and, to a lesser extent, peak fluxes. This includes the cumulative fluence over the course of a mission, the fluence of a worst-case event during a mission, the frequency distribution of event fluences, and the frequency distribution of large peak fluxes. Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, under the sponsorship of NASA's Space Environments and Effects (SEE) Program, have developed a new model for predicting cumulative solar proton fluences and worst-case solar proton events as functions of mission duration and user confidence level. This model is called the Emission of Solar Protons (ESP) model.

Space Environment Effects: Model for Emission of Solar Protons (ESP)--Cumulative and Worst-Case Event Fluences

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xapsos, M. A.; Barth, J. L.; Stassinopoulos, E. G.; Burke, Edward A.; Gee, G. B.

1999-01-01

The effects that solar proton events have on microelectronics and solar arrays are important considerations for spacecraft in geostationary and polar orbits and for interplanetary missions. Designers of spacecraft and mission planners are required to assess the performance of microelectronic systems under a variety of conditions. A number of useful approaches exist for predicting information about solar proton event fluences and, to a lesser extent, peak fluxes. This includes the cumulative fluence over the course of a mission, the fluence of a worst-case event during a mission, the frequency distribution of event fluences, and the frequency distribution of large peak fluxes. Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, under the sponsorship of NASA's Space Environments and Effects (SEE) Program, have developed a new model for predicting cumulative solar proton fluences and worst-case solar proton events as functions of mission duration and user confidence level. This model is called the Emission of Solar Protons (ESP) model.

Worst-Case Energy Efficiency Maximization in a 5G Massive MIMO-NOMA System.

PubMed

Chinnadurai, Sunil; Selvaprabhu, Poongundran; Jeong, Yongchae; Jiang, Xueqin; Lee, Moon Ho

2017-09-18

In this paper, we examine the robust beamforming design to tackle the energy efficiency (EE) maximization problem in a 5G massive multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO)-non-orthogonal multiple access (NOMA) downlink system with imperfect channel state information (CSI) at the base station. A novel joint user pairing and dynamic power allocation (JUPDPA) algorithm is proposed to minimize the inter user interference and also to enhance the fairness between the users. This work assumes imperfect CSI by adding uncertainties to channel matrices with worst-case model, i.e., ellipsoidal uncertainty model (EUM). A fractional non-convex optimization problem is formulated to maximize the EE subject to the transmit power constraints and the minimum rate requirement for the cell edge user. The designed problem is difficult to solve due to its nonlinear fractional objective function. We firstly employ the properties of fractional programming to transform the non-convex problem into its equivalent parametric form. Then, an efficient iterative algorithm is proposed established on the constrained concave-convex procedure (CCCP) that solves and achieves convergence to a stationary point of the above problem. Finally, Dinkelbach's algorithm is employed to determine the maximum energy efficiency. Comprehensive numerical results illustrate that the proposed scheme attains higher worst-case energy efficiency as compared with the existing NOMA schemes and the conventional orthogonal multiple access (OMA) scheme.

Worst-Case Energy Efficiency Maximization in a 5G Massive MIMO-NOMA System

PubMed Central

Jeong, Yongchae; Jiang, Xueqin; Lee, Moon Ho

2017-01-01

In this paper, we examine the robust beamforming design to tackle the energy efficiency (EE) maximization problem in a 5G massive multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO)-non-orthogonal multiple access (NOMA) downlink system with imperfect channel state information (CSI) at the base station. A novel joint user pairing and dynamic power allocation (JUPDPA) algorithm is proposed to minimize the inter user interference and also to enhance the fairness between the users. This work assumes imperfect CSI by adding uncertainties to channel matrices with worst-case model, i.e., ellipsoidal uncertainty model (EUM). A fractional non-convex optimization problem is formulated to maximize the EE subject to the transmit power constraints and the minimum rate requirement for the cell edge user. The designed problem is difficult to solve due to its nonlinear fractional objective function. We firstly employ the properties of fractional programming to transform the non-convex problem into its equivalent parametric form. Then, an efficient iterative algorithm is proposed established on the constrained concave-convex procedure (CCCP) that solves and achieves convergence to a stationary point of the above problem. Finally, Dinkelbach’s algorithm is employed to determine the maximum energy efficiency. Comprehensive numerical results illustrate that the proposed scheme attains higher worst-case energy efficiency as compared with the existing NOMA schemes and the conventional orthogonal multiple access (OMA) scheme. PMID:28927019

The worst case scenario: Locomotor and collision demands of the longest periods of gameplay in professional rugby union

PubMed Central

Reardon, Cillian; Tobin, Daniel P.; Tierney, Peter; Delahunt, Eamonn

2017-01-01

A number of studies have used global positioning systems (GPS) to report on positional differences in the physical game demands of rugby union both on an average and singular bout basis. However, the ability of these studies to report quantitative data is limited by a lack of validation of certain aspects of measurement by GPS micro-technology. Furthermore no study has analyzed the positional physical demands of the longest bouts of ball-in-play time in rugby union. The aim of the present study is to compare the demands of the single longest period of ball-in-play, termed “worst case scenario” (WCS) between positional groups, which have previously been reported to have distinguishable game demands. The results of this study indicate that WCS periods follow a similar sporadic pattern as average demands but are played at a far higher pace than previously reported for average game demands with average meters per minute of 116.8 m. The positional differences in running and collision activity previously reported are perpetuated within WCS periods. Backs covered greater total distances than forwards (318 m vs 289 m), carried out more high-speed running (11.1 m·min-1 vs 5.5 m·min-1) and achieved higher maximum velocities (MaxVel). Outside Backs achieved the highest MaxVel values (6.84 m·sec-1). Tight Five and Back Row forwards underwent significantly more collisions than Inside Back and Outside Backs (0.73 & 0.89 collisions·min-1 vs 0.28 & 0.41 collisions·min-1 respectively). The results of the present study provide information on the positional physical requirements of performance in prolonged periods involving multiple high intensity bursts of effort. Although the current state of GPS micro-technology as a measurement tool does not permit reporting of collision intensity or acceleration data, the combined use of video and GPS provides valuable information to the practitioner. This can be used to match and replicate game demands in training. PMID:28510582

Housing for the "Worst of the Worst" Inmates: Public Support for Supermax Prisons

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mears, Daniel P.; Mancini, Christina; Beaver, Kevin M.; Gertz, Marc

2013-01-01

Despite concerns whether supermaximum security prisons violate human rights or prove effective, these facilities have proliferated in America over the past 25 years. This punishment--aimed at the "worst of the worst" inmates and involving 23-hr-per-day single-cell confinement with few privileges or services--has emerged despite little…

Modelling the long-term evolution of worst-case Arctic oil spills.

PubMed

Blanken, Hauke; Tremblay, Louis Bruno; Gaskin, Susan; Slavin, Alexander

2017-03-15

We present worst-case assessments of contamination in sea ice and surface waters resulting from hypothetical well blowout oil spills at ten sites in the Arctic Ocean basin. Spill extents are estimated by considering Eulerian passive tracers in the surface ocean of the MITgcm (a hydrostatic, coupled ice-ocean model). Oil in sea ice, and contamination resulting from melting of oiled ice, is tracked using an offline Lagrangian scheme. Spills are initialized on November 1st 1980-2010 and tracked for one year. An average spill was transported 1100km and potentially affected 1.1 million km 2 . The direction and magnitude of simulated oil trajectories are consistent with known large-scale current and sea ice circulation patterns, and trajectories frequently cross international boundaries. The simulated trajectories of oil in sea ice match observed ice drift trajectories well. During the winter oil transport by drifting sea ice is more significant than transport with surface currents. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing worst case scenarios in movement demands derived from global positioning systems during international rugby union matches: Rolling averages versus fixed length epochs

PubMed Central

Cunningham, Daniel J.; Shearer, David A.; Carter, Neil; Drawer, Scott; Pollard, Ben; Bennett, Mark; Eager, Robin; Cook, Christian J.; Farrell, John; Russell, Mark

2018-01-01

significantly different to FR. For relative distance covered all other position groups were greater than the FR (p < 0.05). The FIXED method underestimated both relative distance (~11%) and HSR values (up to ~20%) compared to the ROLL method. These differences were exaggerated for the HSR variable in the backs position who covered the greatest HSR distance; highlighting important consideration for those implementing the FIXED method of analysis. The data provides coaches with a worst-case scenario reference on the running demands required for periods of 60–300 s in length. This information offers novel insight into game demands and can be used to inform the design of training games to increase specificity of preparation for the most demanding phases of matches. PMID:29621279

Assessing worst case scenarios in movement demands derived from global positioning systems during international rugby union matches: Rolling averages versus fixed length epochs.

PubMed

Cunningham, Daniel J; Shearer, David A; Carter, Neil; Drawer, Scott; Pollard, Ben; Bennett, Mark; Eager, Robin; Cook, Christian J; Farrell, John; Russell, Mark; Kilduff, Liam P

2018-01-01

significantly different to FR. For relative distance covered all other position groups were greater than the FR (p < 0.05). The FIXED method underestimated both relative distance (~11%) and HSR values (up to ~20%) compared to the ROLL method. These differences were exaggerated for the HSR variable in the backs position who covered the greatest HSR distance; highlighting important consideration for those implementing the FIXED method of analysis. The data provides coaches with a worst-case scenario reference on the running demands required for periods of 60-300 s in length. This information offers novel insight into game demands and can be used to inform the design of training games to increase specificity of preparation for the most demanding phases of matches.

Natural Hazards Risk Reduction and the ARkStorm Scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cox, D. A.; Dettinger, M. D.; Ralph, F. M.

2016-12-01

The ARkStorm Scenario project began in 2008, led by the USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (now Science Application for Risk Reduction) in an effort to innovate the application of science to reduce natural-hazard risk associated with large atmospheric-river (AR) storms on the West Coast of the US. The effort involved contributions from many federal, state and academic organizations including NOAA's Environmental Systems Laboratory. The ARkStorm project used new understanding of atmospheric river physics, combined with downscaled meteorological data from two recent ARs (in 1969 and 1986), to describe and model a prolonged sequence of back-to-back storms similar to those that bankrupted California in 1862. With this scientifically plausible (but not worst-case) scenario, the ARkStorm team engaged flood and levee experts to identify plausible flooding extents and durations, created a coastal-storm inundation model (CoSMoS), and California's first landslide susceptibility map, to better understand secondary meteorological and geophysical hazards (flood, wind, landslide, coastal erosion and inundation) across California. Physical damages to homes, infrastructure, agriculture, and the environment were then estimated to calculate the likely social and economic impact to California and the nation. Across California, property damage from the ARkStorm scenario was estimated to exceed 300 billion, mostly from flooding. Including damage and losses, lifeline damages and business interruptions, the total cost of an ARkStorm-sized series of storms came to nearly 725 billion, nearly three times the losses estimated from another SAFRR scenario describing a M7.8 earthquake in southern California. Thus, atmospheric rivers have the potential to be California's other "Big One." Since its creation, the ARkStorm scenario has been used in preparedness exercises by NASA, the US Navy, the State of California, the County of Ventura, and cities and counties in the Tahoe Basin and

40 CFR 68.25 - Worst-case release scenario analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... used is based on TNT equivalent methods. (1) For regulated flammable substances that are normally gases... shall be used to determine the distance to the explosion endpoint if the model used is based on TNT...

40 CFR 68.25 - Worst-case release scenario analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... used is based on TNT equivalent methods. (1) For regulated flammable substances that are normally gases... shall be used to determine the distance to the explosion endpoint if the model used is based on TNT...

40 CFR 68.25 - Worst-case release scenario analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... used is based on TNT equivalent methods. (1) For regulated flammable substances that are normally gases... shall be used to determine the distance to the explosion endpoint if the model used is based on TNT...

40 CFR 68.25 - Worst-case release scenario analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... used is based on TNT equivalent methods. (1) For regulated flammable substances that are normally gases... shall be used to determine the distance to the explosion endpoint if the model used is based on TNT...

40 CFR 68.25 - Worst-case release scenario analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... used is based on TNT equivalent methods. (1) For regulated flammable substances that are normally gases... shall be used to determine the distance to the explosion endpoint if the model used is based on TNT...

How can health systems research reach the worst-off? A conceptual exploration.

PubMed

Pratt, Bridget; Hyder, Adnan A

2016-11-15

Health systems research is increasingly being conducted in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). Such research should aim to reduce health disparities between and within countries as a matter of global justice. For such research to do so, ethical guidance that is consistent with egalitarian theories of social justice proposes it ought to (amongst other things) focus on worst-off countries and research populations. Yet who constitutes the worst-off is not well-defined. By applying existing work on disadvantage from political philosophy, the paper demonstrates that (at least) two options exist for how to define the worst-off upon whom equity-oriented health systems research should focus: those who are worst-off in terms of health or those who are systematically disadvantaged. The paper describes in detail how both concepts can be understood and what metrics can be relied upon to identify worst-off countries and research populations at the sub-national level (groups, communities). To demonstrate how each can be used, the paper considers two real-world cases of health systems research and whether their choice of country (Uganda, India) and research population in 2011 would have been classified as amongst the worst-off according to the proposed concepts. The two proposed concepts can classify different countries and sub-national populations as worst-off. It is recommended that health researchers (or other actors) should use the concept that best reflects their moral commitments-namely, to perform research focused on reducing health inequalities or systematic disadvantage more broadly. If addressing the latter, it is recommended that they rely on the multidimensional poverty approach rather than the income approach to identify worst-off populations.

'Worst case' methodology for the initial assessment of societal risk from proposed major accident installations.

PubMed

Carter, D A; Hirst, I L

2000-01-07

This paper considers the application of one of the weighted risk indicators used by the Major Hazards Assessment Unit (MHAU) of the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) in formulating advice to local planning authorities on the siting of new major accident hazard installations. In such cases the primary consideration is to ensure that the proposed installation would not be incompatible with existing developments in the vicinity, as identified by the categorisation of the existing developments and the estimation of individual risk values at those developments. In addition a simple methodology, described here, based on MHAU's "Risk Integral" and a single "worst case" even analysis, is used to enable the societal risk aspects of the hazardous installation to be considered at an early stage of the proposal, and to determine the degree of analysis that will be necessary to enable HSE to give appropriate advice.

Atmospheric transport of radioactive debris to Norway in case of a hypothetical accident related to the recovery of the Russian submarine K-27.

PubMed

Bartnicki, Jerzy; Amundsen, Ingar; Brown, Justin; Hosseini, Ali; Hov, Øystein; Haakenstad, Hilde; Klein, Heiko; Lind, Ole Christian; Salbu, Brit; Szacinski Wendel, Cato C; Ytre-Eide, Martin Album

2016-01-01

The Russian nuclear submarine K-27 suffered a loss of coolant accident in 1968 and with nuclear fuel in both reactors it was scuttled in 1981 in the outer part of Stepovogo Bay located on the eastern coast of Novaya Zemlya. The inventory of spent nuclear fuel on board the submarine is of concern because it represents a potential source of radioactive contamination of the Kara Sea and a criticality accident with potential for long-range atmospheric transport of radioactive particles cannot be ruled out. To address these concerns and to provide a better basis for evaluating possible radiological impacts of potential releases in case a salvage operation is initiated, we assessed the atmospheric transport of radionuclides and deposition in Norway from a hypothetical criticality accident on board the K-27. To achieve this, a long term (33 years) meteorological database has been prepared and used for selection of the worst case meteorological scenarios for each of three selected locations of the potential accident. Next, the dispersion model SNAP was run with the source term for the worst-case accident scenario and selected meteorological scenarios. The results showed predictions to be very sensitive to the estimation of the source term for the worst-case accident and especially to the sizes and densities of released radioactive particles. The results indicated that a large area of Norway could be affected, but that the deposition in Northern Norway would be considerably higher than in other areas of the country. The simulations showed that deposition from the worst-case scenario of a hypothetical K-27 accident would be at least two orders of magnitude lower than the deposition observed in Norway following the Chernobyl accident. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Developing ecological scenarios for the prospective aquatic risk assessment of pesticides.

PubMed

Rico, Andreu; Van den Brink, Paul J; Gylstra, Ronald; Focks, Andreas; Brock, Theo Cm

2016-07-01

The prospective aquatic environmental risk assessment (ERA) of pesticides is generally based on the comparison of predicted environmental concentrations in edge-of-field surface waters with regulatory acceptable concentrations derived from laboratory and/or model ecosystem experiments with aquatic organisms. New improvements in mechanistic effect modeling have allowed a better characterization of the ecological risks of pesticides through the incorporation of biological trait information and landscape parameters to assess individual, population and/or community-level effects and recovery. Similarly to exposure models, ecological models require scenarios that describe the environmental context in which they are applied. In this article, we propose a conceptual framework for the development of ecological scenarios that, when merged with exposure scenarios, will constitute environmental scenarios for prospective aquatic ERA. These "unified" environmental scenarios are defined as the combination of the biotic and abiotic parameters that are required to characterize exposure, (direct and indirect) effects, and recovery of aquatic nontarget species under realistic worst-case conditions. Ideally, environmental scenarios aim to avoid a potential mismatch between the parameter values and the spatial-temporal scales currently used in aquatic exposure and effect modeling. This requires a deeper understanding of the ecological entities we intend to protect, which can be preliminarily addressed by the formulation of ecological scenarios. In this article we present a methodological approach for the development of ecological scenarios and illustrate this approach by a case-study for Dutch agricultural ditches and the example focal species Sialis lutaria. Finally, we discuss the applicability of ecological scenarios in ERA and propose research needs and recommendations for their development and integration with exposure scenarios. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:510-521. �

New trends in transportation and land use scenario planning : five case studies of regional and local scenario planning efforts

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-04-01

This report summarizes important findings from a literature review on scenario planning processes and a scan of stakeholders. It also presents case studies on innovative, next generation scenario planning efforts. The project team defined next ...

Hepatitis Aand E Co-Infection with Worst Outcome.

PubMed

Saeed, Anjum; Cheema, Huma Arshad; Assiri, Asaad

2016-06-01

Infections are still a major problem in the developing countries like Pakistan because of poor sewage disposal and economic restraints. Acute viral hepatitis like Aand E are not uncommon in pediatric age group because of unhygienic food handling and poor sewage disposal, but majority recovers well without any complications. Co-infections are rare occurrences and physicians need to be well aware while managing such conditions to avoid worst outcome. Co-infection with hepatitis Aand E is reported occasionally in the literature, however, other concurrent infections such as hepatitis A with Salmonellaand hepatotropic viruses like viral hepatitis B and C are present in the literature. Co-infections should be kept in consideration when someone presents with atypical symptoms or unusual disease course like this presented case. We report here a girl child who had acute hepatitis A and E concurrent infections and presented with hepatic encephalopathy and had worst outcome, despite all the supportive measures being taken.

Reducing the worst case running times of a family of RNA and CFG problems, using Valiant's approach.

PubMed

Zakov, Shay; Tsur, Dekel; Ziv-Ukelson, Michal

2011-08-18

RNA secondary structure prediction is a mainstream bioinformatic domain, and is key to computational analysis of functional RNA. In more than 30 years, much research has been devoted to defining different variants of RNA structure prediction problems, and to developing techniques for improving prediction quality. Nevertheless, most of the algorithms in this field follow a similar dynamic programming approach as that presented by Nussinov and Jacobson in the late 70's, which typically yields cubic worst case running time algorithms. Recently, some algorithmic approaches were applied to improve the complexity of these algorithms, motivated by new discoveries in the RNA domain and by the need to efficiently analyze the increasing amount of accumulated genome-wide data. We study Valiant's classical algorithm for Context Free Grammar recognition in sub-cubic time, and extract features that are common to problems on which Valiant's approach can be applied. Based on this, we describe several problem templates, and formulate generic algorithms that use Valiant's technique and can be applied to all problems which abide by these templates, including many problems within the world of RNA Secondary Structures and Context Free Grammars. The algorithms presented in this paper improve the theoretical asymptotic worst case running time bounds for a large family of important problems. It is also possible that the suggested techniques could be applied to yield a practical speedup for these problems. For some of the problems (such as computing the RNA partition function and base-pair binding probabilities), the presented techniques are the only ones which are currently known for reducing the asymptotic running time bounds of the standard algorithms.

Reducing the worst case running times of a family of RNA and CFG problems, using Valiant's approach

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background RNA secondary structure prediction is a mainstream bioinformatic domain, and is key to computational analysis of functional RNA. In more than 30 years, much research has been devoted to defining different variants of RNA structure prediction problems, and to developing techniques for improving prediction quality. Nevertheless, most of the algorithms in this field follow a similar dynamic programming approach as that presented by Nussinov and Jacobson in the late 70's, which typically yields cubic worst case running time algorithms. Recently, some algorithmic approaches were applied to improve the complexity of these algorithms, motivated by new discoveries in the RNA domain and by the need to efficiently analyze the increasing amount of accumulated genome-wide data. Results We study Valiant's classical algorithm for Context Free Grammar recognition in sub-cubic time, and extract features that are common to problems on which Valiant's approach can be applied. Based on this, we describe several problem templates, and formulate generic algorithms that use Valiant's technique and can be applied to all problems which abide by these templates, including many problems within the world of RNA Secondary Structures and Context Free Grammars. Conclusions The algorithms presented in this paper improve the theoretical asymptotic worst case running time bounds for a large family of important problems. It is also possible that the suggested techniques could be applied to yield a practical speedup for these problems. For some of the problems (such as computing the RNA partition function and base-pair binding probabilities), the presented techniques are the only ones which are currently known for reducing the asymptotic running time bounds of the standard algorithms. PMID:21851589

Scoring best-worst data in unbalanced many-item designs, with applications to crowdsourcing semantic judgments.

PubMed

Hollis, Geoff

2018-04-01

Best-worst scaling is a judgment format in which participants are presented with a set of items and have to choose the superior and inferior items in the set. Best-worst scaling generates a large quantity of information per judgment because each judgment allows for inferences about the rank value of all unjudged items. This property of best-worst scaling makes it a promising judgment format for research in psychology and natural language processing concerned with estimating the semantic properties of tens of thousands of words. A variety of different scoring algorithms have been devised in the previous literature on best-worst scaling. However, due to problems of computational efficiency, these scoring algorithms cannot be applied efficiently to cases in which thousands of items need to be scored. New algorithms are presented here for converting responses from best-worst scaling into item scores for thousands of items (many-item scoring problems). These scoring algorithms are validated through simulation and empirical experiments, and considerations related to noise, the underlying distribution of true values, and trial design are identified that can affect the relative quality of the derived item scores. The newly introduced scoring algorithms consistently outperformed scoring algorithms used in the previous literature on scoring many-item best-worst data.

Zero-moment point determination of worst-case manoeuvres leading to vehicle wheel lift

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lapapong, S.; Brown, A. A.; Swanson, K. S.; Brennan, S. N.

2012-01-01

This paper proposes a method to evaluate vehicle rollover propensity based on a frequency-domain representation of the zero-moment point (ZMP). Unlike other rollover metrics such as the static stability factor, which is based on the steady-state behaviour, and the load transfer ratio, which requires the calculation of tyre forces, the ZMP is based on a simplified kinematic model of the vehicle and the analysis of the contact point of the vehicle relative to the edge of the support polygon. Previous work has validated the use of the ZMP experimentally in its ability to predict wheel lift in the time domain. This work explores the use of the ZMP in the frequency domain to allow a chassis designer to understand how operating conditions and vehicle parameters affect rollover propensity. The ZMP analysis is then extended to calculate worst-case sinusoidal manoeuvres that lead to untripped wheel lift, and the analysis is tested across several vehicle configurations and compared with that of the standard Toyota J manoeuvre.

Adhesive strength of total knee endoprostheses to bone cement - analysis of metallic and ceramic femoral components under worst-case conditions.

PubMed

Bergschmidt, Philipp; Dammer, Rebecca; Zietz, Carmen; Finze, Susanne; Mittelmeier, Wolfram; Bader, Rainer

2016-06-01

Evaluation of the adhesive strength of femoral components to the bone cement is a relevant parameter for predicting implant safety. In the present experimental study, three types of cemented femoral components (metallic, ceramic and silica/silane-layered ceramic) of the bicondylar Multigen Plus knee system, implanted on composite femora were analysed. A pull-off test with the femoral components was performed after different load and several cementing conditions (four groups and n=3 components of each metallic, ceramic and silica/silane-layered ceramic in each group). Pull-off forces were comparable for the metallic and the silica/silane-layered ceramic femoral components (mean 4769 N and 4298 N) under standard test condition, whereas uncoated ceramic femoral components showed reduced pull-off forces (mean 2322 N). Loading under worst-case conditions led to decreased adhesive strength by loosening of the interface implant and bone cement using uncoated metallic and ceramic femoral components, respectively. Silica/silane-coated ceramic components were stably fixed even under worst-case conditions. Loading under high flexion angles can induce interfacial tensile stress, which could promote early implant loosening. In conclusion, a silica/silane-coating layer on the femoral component increased their adhesive strength to bone cement. Thicker cement mantles (>2 mm) reduce adhesive strength of the femoral component and can increase the risk of cement break-off.

Experimental measurement of preferences in health and healthcare using best-worst scaling: an overview.

PubMed

Mühlbacher, Axel C; Kaczynski, Anika; Zweifel, Peter; Johnson, F Reed

2016-12-01

Best-worst scaling (BWS), also known as maximum-difference scaling, is a multiattribute approach to measuring preferences. BWS aims at the analysis of preferences regarding a set of attributes, their levels or alternatives. It is a stated-preference method based on the assumption that respondents are capable of making judgments regarding the best and the worst (or the most and least important, respectively) out of three or more elements of a choice-set. As is true of discrete choice experiments (DCE) generally, BWS avoids the known weaknesses of rating and ranking scales while holding the promise of generating additional information by making respondents choose twice, namely the best as well as the worst criteria. A systematic literature review found 53 BWS applications in health and healthcare. This article expounds possibilities of application, the underlying theoretical concepts and the implementation of BWS in its three variants: 'object case', 'profile case', 'multiprofile case'. This paper contains a survey of BWS methods and revolves around study design, experimental design, and data analysis. Moreover the article discusses the strengths and weaknesses of the three types of BWS distinguished and offered an outlook. A companion paper focuses on special issues of theory and statistical inference confronting BWS in preference measurement.

Anticipating and training for the worst-case metabolic scenario: a comment on Del Vecchio, Hirata, and Franchini (2011).

PubMed

Amtmann, John

2012-02-01

Del Vecchio, Hirata, and Franchini (2011) studied the effort: pause ratio of mixed martial arts by analyzing 26 bouts in two separate mixed martial arts events in Sao Paulo, Brazil. They referenced research identifying effort:pause ratios from other combat sports ranging from 10:1 (Brazilian Jiu Jitsu), 2:1 (judo and wrestling), and 1:3/1:4 (taekwondo). The authors identified an effort:pause ratio ranging from 1:2 to 1:4 in the bouts they analyzed, and suggested and described training programs that resemble this ratio. It is important for coaches to anticipate the most challenging metabolic mixed martial arts scenario and to create training programs that mimic that profile. Del Vecchio and associates' research is an important first step in gathering information which can help enhance training programs for injury prevention and performance enhancement.

Scenario based approach for multiple source Tsunami Hazard assessment for Sines, Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wronna, M.; Omira, R.; Baptista, M. A.

2015-08-01

In this paper, we present a scenario-based approach for tsunami hazard assessment for the city and harbour of Sines - Portugal, one of the test-sites of project ASTARTE. Sines holds one of the most important deep-water ports which contains oil-bearing, petrochemical, liquid bulk, coal and container terminals. The port and its industrial infrastructures are facing the ocean southwest towards the main seismogenic sources. This work considers two different seismic zones: the Southwest Iberian Margin and the Gloria Fault. Within these two regions, we selected a total of six scenarios to assess the tsunami impact at the test site. The tsunami simulations are computed using NSWING a Non-linear Shallow Water Model With Nested Grids. In this study, the static effect of tides is analysed for three different tidal stages MLLW (mean lower low water), MSL (mean sea level) and MHHW (mean higher high water). For each scenario, inundation is described by maximum values of wave height, flow depth, drawback, runup and inundation distance. Synthetic waveforms are computed at virtual tide gauges at specific locations outside and inside the harbour. The final results describe the impact at Sines test site considering the single scenarios at mean sea level, the aggregate scenario and the influence of the tide on the aggregate scenario. The results confirm the composite of Horseshoe and Marques Pombal fault as the worst case scenario. It governs the aggregate scenario with about 60 % and inundates an area of 3.5 km2.

Case series: Two cases of eyeball tattoos with short-term complications.

PubMed

Duarte, Gonzalo; Cheja, Rashel; Pachón, Diana; Ramírez, Carolina; Arellanes, Lourdes

2017-04-01

To report two cases of eyeball tattoos with short-term post procedural complications. Case 1 is a 26-year-old Mexican man that developed orbital cellulitis and posterior scleritis 2 h after an eyeball tattoo. Patient responded satisfactorily to systemic antibiotic and corticosteroid treatment. Case 2 is a 17-year-old Mexican man that developed two sub-episcleral nodules in the ink injection sites immediately after the procedure. Eyeball tattoos are performed by non-ophthalmic trained personnel. There are a substantial number of short-term risks associated with this procedure. Long-term effects on the eyes and vision are still unknown, but in a worst case scenario could include loss of vision or permanent damage to the eyes.

Worst-error analysis of batch filter and sequential filter in navigation problems. [in spacecraft trajectory estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nishimura, T.

1975-01-01

This paper proposes a worst-error analysis for dealing with problems of estimation of spacecraft trajectories in deep space missions. Navigation filters in use assume either constant or stochastic (Markov) models for their estimated parameters. When the actual behavior of these parameters does not follow the pattern of the assumed model, the filters sometimes result in very poor performance. To prepare for such pathological cases, the worst errors of both batch and sequential filters are investigated based on the incremental sensitivity studies of these filters. By finding critical switching instances of non-gravitational accelerations, intensive tracking can be carried out around those instances. Also the worst errors in the target plane provide a measure in assignment of the propellant budget for trajectory corrections. Thus the worst-error study presents useful information as well as practical criteria in establishing the maneuver and tracking strategy of spacecraft's missions.

"Best Case/Worst Case": Qualitative Evaluation of a Novel Communication Tool for Difficult in-the-Moment Surgical Decisions.

PubMed

Kruser, Jacqueline M; Nabozny, Michael J; Steffens, Nicole M; Brasel, Karen J; Campbell, Toby C; Gaines, Martha E; Schwarze, Margaret L

2015-09-01

To evaluate a communication tool called "Best Case/Worst Case" (BC/WC) based on an established conceptual model of shared decision-making. Focus group study. Older adults (four focus groups) and surgeons (two focus groups) using modified questions from the Decision Aid Acceptability Scale and the Decisional Conflict Scale to evaluate and revise the communication tool. Individuals aged 60 and older recruited from senior centers (n = 37) and surgeons from academic and private practices in Wisconsin (n = 17). Qualitative content analysis was used to explore themes and concepts that focus group respondents identified. Seniors and surgeons praised the tool for the unambiguous illustration of multiple treatment options and the clarity gained from presentation of an array of treatment outcomes. Participants noted that the tool provides an opportunity for in-the-moment, preference-based deliberation about options and a platform for further discussion with other clinicians and loved ones. Older adults worried that the format of the tool was not universally accessible for people with different educational backgrounds, and surgeons had concerns that the tool was vulnerable to physicians' subjective biases. The BC/WC tool is a novel decision support intervention that may help facilitate difficult decision-making for older adults and their physicians when considering invasive, acute medical treatments such as surgery. © 2015, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2015, The American Geriatrics Society.

Comparison of temporal realistic telecommunication base station exposure with worst-case estimation in two countries.

PubMed

Mahfouz, Zaher; Verloock, Leen; Joseph, Wout; Tanghe, Emmeric; Gati, Azeddine; Wiart, Joe; Lautru, David; Hanna, Victor Fouad; Martens, Luc

2013-12-01

The influence of temporal daily exposure to global system for mobile communications (GSM) and universal mobile telecommunications systems and high speed downlink packet access (UMTS-HSDPA) is investigated using spectrum analyser measurements in two countries, France and Belgium. Temporal variations and traffic distributions are investigated. Three different methods to estimate maximal electric-field exposure are compared. The maximal realistic (99 %) and the maximal theoretical extrapolation factor used to extrapolate the measured broadcast control channel (BCCH) for GSM and the common pilot channel (CPICH) for UMTS are presented and compared for the first time in the two countries. Similar conclusions are found in the two countries for both urban and rural areas: worst-case exposure assessment overestimates realistic maximal exposure up to 5.7 dB for the considered example. In France, the values are the highest, because of the higher population density. The results for the maximal realistic extrapolation factor at the weekdays are similar to those from weekend days.

Control-oriented modelization of a satellite with large flexible appendages and use of worst-case analysis to verify robustness to model uncertainties of attitude control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gasbarri, Paolo; Monti, Riccardo; Campolo, Giovanni; Toglia, Chiara

2012-12-01

lengthy and expensive: difficulty and cost do increase because of the overall system dimension that depends on the number of uncertainties. Uncertain parameters have to be parametrically investigated to determine robust performance of the control laws via gridding approaches. In particular in this paper we propose to consider two methods: (i) a conventional Monte Carlo analysis, and (ii) a worst-case analysis, i.e., an optimization process to find an estimation of the true worst-case behaviour. Both techniques allow to verify that the design is robust enough to meet the system performance specification in case of uncertainties.

EPA worst case water microcosms for testing phage biocontrol of Salmonella.

PubMed

McLaughlin, Michael R; Brooks, John P

2008-01-01

A microplate method was developed as a tool to test phages for their ability to control Salmonella in aqueous environments. The method used EPA (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency) worst case water (WCW) in 96-well plates. The WCW provided a consistent and relatively simple defined turbid aqueous matrix, high in total organic carbon (TOC) and total dissolved salts (TDS), to simulate swine lagoon effluent, without the inconvenience of malodor and confounding effects from other biological factors. The WCW was originally defined to simulate high turbidity and organic matter in water for testing point-of-use filtration devices. Use of WCW to simulate lagoon effluent for phage testing is a new and innovative application of this matrix. Control of physical and chemical parameters (TOC, TDS, turbidity, temperature, and pH) allowed precise evaluation of microbiological parameters (Salmonella and phages). In a typical application, wells containing WCW were loaded with Salmonella enterica susp. enterica serovar Typhimurium (ATCC14028) and treated with phages alone and in cocktail combinations. Mean Salmonella inactivation rates (k, where the lower the value, the greater the inactivation) of phage treatments ranged from -0.32 to -1.60 versus -0.004 for Salmonella controls. Mean log(10) reductions (the lower the value, the greater the reduction) of Salmonella phage treatments were -1.60 for phage PR04-1, -2.14 for phage PR37-96, and -2.14 for both phages in a sequential cocktail, versus -0.08 for Salmonella controls. The WCW microcosm system was an effective tool for evaluating the biocontrol potential of Salmonella phages.

When is best-worst best? A comparison of best-worst scaling, numeric estimation, and rating scales for collection of semantic norms.

PubMed

Hollis, Geoff; Westbury, Chris

2018-02-01

Large-scale semantic norms have become both prevalent and influential in recent psycholinguistic research. However, little attention has been directed towards understanding the methodological best practices of such norm collection efforts. We compared the quality of semantic norms obtained through rating scales, numeric estimation, and a less commonly used judgment format called best-worst scaling. We found that best-worst scaling usually produces norms with higher predictive validities than other response formats, and does so requiring less data to be collected overall. We also found evidence that the various response formats may be producing qualitatively, rather than just quantitatively, different data. This raises the issue of potential response format bias, which has not been addressed by previous efforts to collect semantic norms, likely because of previous reliance on a single type of response format for a single type of semantic judgment. We have made available software for creating best-worst stimuli and scoring best-worst data. We also made available new norms for age of acquisition, valence, arousal, and concreteness collected using best-worst scaling. These norms include entries for 1,040 words, of which 1,034 are also contained in the ANEW norms (Bradley & Lang, Affective norms for English words (ANEW): Instruction manual and affective ratings (pp. 1-45). Technical report C-1, the center for research in psychophysiology, University of Florida, 1999).

Considering the worst-case metabolic scenario, but training to the typical-case competitive scenario: response to Amtmann (2012).

PubMed

Del Vecchio, Fabrício Boscolo; Franchini, Emerson

2013-08-01

This response to Amtmann's letter emphasizes that the knowledge of the typical time structure, as well as its variation, together with the main goal of the mixed martial arts athletes--to win by knock out or submission--need to be properly considered during the training sessions. Example with other combat sports are given and discussed, especially concerning the importance of adapting the physical conditioning workouts to the technical-tactical profile of the athlete and not the opposite.

Internet Posting of Chemical Worst Case Scenarios: A Roadmap for Terrorists

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-02-10

with homework and connect with friends. As a parent, the greatest concern I used to have about the Internet was porn and the other things that sickos...slightest risk with the lives of their husbands, wives, parents, children , or grandchildren.’’ Let me stress that no one here, including those in law...make sure our standards cover the uncommon person who would be more sus- ceptible. This not only includes children , but also groups or individuals

Characteristics of worst hour rainfall rate for radio wave propagation modelling in Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osita, Ibe; Nymphas, E. F.

2017-10-01

Radio waves especially at the millimeter-wave band are known to be attenuated by rain. Radio engineers and designers need to be able to predict the time of the day when radio signal will be attenuated so as to provide measures to mitigate this effect. This is achieved by characterizing the rainfall intensity for a particular region of interest into worst month and worst hour of the day. This paper characterized rainfall in Nigeria into worst year, worst month, and worst hour. It is shown that for the period of study, 2008 and 2009 are the worst years, while September is the most frequent worst month in most of the stations. The evening time (LT) is the worst hours of the day in virtually all the stations.

Worst theft losses are for Mercedes model; 2 of 3 worst are for acura

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-05-13

The Highway Loss Data Institute's annual list of vehicles with worst theft losses has Mercedes S class heading the list of passenger vehicles with the highest insurance losses for theft. Overall losses for this car are 10 times higher than the averag...

Scenarios of large mammal loss in Europe for the 21st century.

PubMed

Rondinini, Carlo; Visconti, Piero

2015-08-01

Distributions and populations of large mammals are declining globally, leading to an increase in their extinction risk. We forecasted the distribution of extant European large mammals (17 carnivores and 10 ungulates) based on 2 Rio+20 scenarios of socioeconomic development: business as usual and reduced impact through changes in human consumption of natural resources. These scenarios are linked to scenarios of land-use change and climate change through the spatial allocation of land conversion up to 2050. We used a hierarchical framework to forecast the extent and distribution of mammal habitat based on species' habitat preferences (as described in the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List database) within a suitable climatic space fitted to the species' current geographic range. We analyzed the geographic and taxonomic variation of habitat loss for large mammals and the potential effect of the reduced impact policy on loss mitigation. Averaging across scenarios, European large mammals were predicted to lose 10% of their habitat by 2050 (25% in the worst-case scenario). Predicted loss was much higher for species in northwestern Europe, where habitat is expected to be lost due to climate and land-use change. Change in human consumption patterns was predicted to substantially improve the conservation of habitat for European large mammals, but not enough to reduce extinction risk if species cannot adapt locally to climate change or disperse. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

A General Safety Assessment for Purified Food Ingredients Derived From Biotechnology Crops: Case Study of Brazilian Sugar and Beverages Produced From Insect-Protected Sugarcane.

PubMed

Kennedy, Reese D; Cheavegatti-Gianotto, Adriana; de Oliveira, Wladecir S; Lirette, Ronald P; Hjelle, Jerry J

2018-01-01

Insect-protected sugarcane that expresses Cry1Ab has been developed in Brazil. Analysis of trade information has shown that effectively all the sugarcane-derived Brazilian exports are raw or refined sugar and ethanol. The fact that raw and refined sugar are highly purified food ingredients, with no detectable transgenic protein, provides an interesting case study of a generalized safety assessment approach. In this study, both the theoretical protein intakes and safety assessments of Cry1Ab, Cry1Ac, NPTII, and Bar proteins used in insect-protected biotechnology crops were examined. The potential consumption of these proteins was examined using local market research data of average added sugar intakes in eight diverse and representative Brazilian raw and refined sugar export markets (Brazil, Canada, China, Indonesia, India, Japan, Russia, and the USA). The average sugar intakes, which ranged from 5.1 g of added sugar/person/day (India) to 126 g sugar/p/day (USA) were used to calculated possible human exposure. The theoretical protein intake estimates were carried out in the "Worst-case" scenario, assumed that 1 μg of newly-expressed protein is detected/g of raw or refined sugar; and the "Reasonable-case" scenario assumed 1 ng protein/g sugar. The "Worst-case" scenario was based on results of detailed studies of sugarcane processing in Brazil that showed that refined sugar contains less than 1 μg of total plant protein /g refined sugar. The "Reasonable-case" scenario was based on assumption that the expression levels in stalk of newly-expressed proteins were less than 0.1% of total stalk protein. Using these calculated protein intake values from the consumption of sugar, along with the accepted NOAEL levels of the four representative proteins we concluded that safety margins for the "Worst-case" scenario ranged from 6.9 × 10 5 to 5.9 × 10 7 and for the "Reasonable-case" scenario ranged from 6.9 × 10 8 to 5.9 × 10 10 . These safety margins are very high due to

Conscious worst case definition for risk assessment, part I: a knowledge mapping approach for defining most critical risk factors in integrative risk management of chemicals and nanomaterials.

PubMed

Sørensen, Peter B; Thomsen, Marianne; Assmuth, Timo; Grieger, Khara D; Baun, Anders

2010-08-15

This paper helps bridge the gap between scientists and other stakeholders in the areas of human and environmental risk management of chemicals and engineered nanomaterials. This connection is needed due to the evolution of stakeholder awareness and scientific progress related to human and environmental health which involves complex methodological demands on risk management. At the same time, the available scientific knowledge is also becoming more scattered across multiple scientific disciplines. Hence, the understanding of potentially risky situations is increasingly multifaceted, which again challenges risk assessors in terms of giving the 'right' relative priority to the multitude of contributing risk factors. A critical issue is therefore to develop procedures that can identify and evaluate worst case risk conditions which may be input to risk level predictions. Therefore, this paper suggests a conceptual modelling procedure that is able to define appropriate worst case conditions in complex risk management. The result of the analysis is an assembly of system models, denoted the Worst Case Definition (WCD) model, to set up and evaluate the conditions of multi-dimensional risk identification and risk quantification. The model can help optimize risk assessment planning by initial screening level analyses and guiding quantitative assessment in relation to knowledge needs for better decision support concerning environmental and human health protection or risk reduction. The WCD model facilitates the evaluation of fundamental uncertainty using knowledge mapping principles and techniques in a way that can improve a complete uncertainty analysis. Ultimately, the WCD is applicable for describing risk contributing factors in relation to many different types of risk management problems since it transparently and effectively handles assumptions and definitions and allows the integration of different forms of knowledge, thereby supporting the inclusion of multifaceted risk

SU-F-T-192: Study of Robustness Analysis Method of Multiple Field Optimized IMPT Plans for Head & Neck Patients

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Y; Wang, X; Li, H

Purpose: Proton therapy is more sensitive to uncertainties than photon treatments due to protons’ finite range depending on the tissue density. Worst case scenario (WCS) method originally proposed by Lomax has been adopted in our institute for robustness analysis of IMPT plans. This work demonstrates that WCS method is sufficient enough to take into account of the uncertainties which could be encountered during daily clinical treatment. Methods: A fast and approximate dose calculation method is developed to calculate the dose for the IMPT plan under different setup and range uncertainties. Effects of two factors, inversed square factor and range uncertainty,more » are explored. WCS robustness analysis method was evaluated using this fast dose calculation method. The worst-case dose distribution was generated by shifting isocenter by 3 mm along x,y and z directions and modifying stopping power ratios by ±3.5%. 1000 randomly perturbed cases in proton range and x, yz directions were created and the corresponding dose distributions were calculated using this approximated method. DVH and dosimetric indexes of all 1000 perturbed cases were calculated and compared with the result using worst case scenario method. Results: The distributions of dosimetric indexes of 1000 perturbed cases were generated and compared with the results using worst case scenario. For D95 of CTVs, at least 97% of 1000 perturbed cases show higher values than the one of worst case scenario. For D5 of CTVs, at least 98% of perturbed cases have lower values than worst case scenario. Conclusion: By extensively calculating the dose distributions under random uncertainties, WCS method was verified to be reliable in evaluating the robustness level of MFO IMPT plans of H&N patients. The extensively sampling approach using fast approximated method could be used in evaluating the effects of different factors on the robustness level of IMPT plans in the future.« less

Effects of alternative outcome scenarios and structured outcome evaluation on case-based ethics instruction.

PubMed

Peacock, Juandre; Harkrider, Lauren N; Bagdasarov, Zhanna; Connelly, Shane; Johnson, James F; Thiel, Chase E; Macdougall, Alexandra E; Mumford, Michael D; Devenport, Lynn D

2013-09-01

Case-based instruction has been regarded by many as a viable alternative to traditional lecture-based education and training. However, little is known about how case-based training techniques impact training effectiveness. This study examined the effects of two such techniques: (a) presentation of alternative outcome scenarios to a case, and (b) conducting a structured outcome evaluation. Consistent with the hypotheses, results indicate that presentation of alternative outcome scenarios reduced knowledge acquisition, reduced sensemaking and ethical decision-making strategy use, and reduced decision ethicality. Conducting a structured outcome evaluation had no impact on these outcomes. Results indicate that those who use case-based instruction should take care to use clear, less complex cases with only a singular outcome if they are seeking these types of outcomes.

Sensitivity of the global submarine hydrate inventory to scenarios of future climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hunter, S. J.; Goldobin, D. S.; Haywood, A. M.; Ridgwell, A.; Rees, J. G.

2013-04-01

The global submarine inventory of methane hydrate is thought to be considerable. The stability of marine hydrates is sensitive to changes in temperature and pressure and once destabilised, hydrates release methane into sediments and ocean and potentially into the atmosphere, creating a positive feedback with climate change. Here we present results from a multi-model study investigating how the methane hydrate inventory dynamically responds to different scenarios of future climate and sea level change. The results indicate that a warming-induced reduction is dominant even when assuming rather extreme rates of sea level rise (up to 20 mm yr-1) under moderate warming scenarios (RCP 4.5). Over the next century modelled hydrate dissociation is focussed in the top ˜100m of Arctic and Subarctic sediments beneath <500m water depth. Predicted dissociation rates are particularly sensitive to the modelled vertical hydrate distribution within sediments. Under the worst case business-as-usual scenario (RCP 8.5), upper estimates of resulting global sea-floor methane fluxes could exceed estimates of natural global fluxes by 2100 (>30-50TgCH4yr-1), although subsequent oxidation in the water column could reduce peak atmospheric release rates to 0.75-1.4 Tg CH4 yr-1.

Hydrological and water quality impact assessment of a Mediterranean limno-reservoir under climate change and land use management scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molina-Navarro, Eugenio; Trolle, Dennis; Martínez-Pérez, Silvia; Sastre-Merlín, Antonio; Jeppesen, Erik

2014-02-01

Water scarcity and water pollution constitute a big challenge for water managers in the Mediterranean region today and will exacerbate in a projected future warmer world, making a holistic approach for water resources management at the catchment scale essential. We expanded the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model developed for a small Mediterranean catchment to quantify the potential effects of various climate and land use change scenarios on catchment hydrology as well as the trophic state of a new kind of waterbody, a limno-reservoir (Pareja Limno-reservoir), created for environmental and recreational purposes. We also checked for the possible synergistic effects of changes in climate and land use on water flow and nutrient exports from the catchment. Simulations showed a noticeable impact of climate change in the river flow regime and consequently the water level of the limno-reservoir, especially during summer, complicating the fulfillment of its purposes. Most of the scenarios also predicted a deterioration of trophic conditions in the limno-reservoir. Fertilization and soil erosion were the main factors affecting nitrate and total phosphorus concentrations. Combined climate and land use change scenarios showed noticeable synergistic effects on nutrients exports, relative to running the scenarios individually. While the impact of fertilization on nitrate export is projected to be reduced with warming in most cases, an additional 13% increase in the total phosphorus export is expected in the worst-case combined scenario compared to the sum of individual scenarios. Our model framework may help water managers to assess and manage how these multiple environmental stressors interact and ultimately affect aquatic ecosystems.

Cost-efficacy of biologic therapies for psoriatic arthritis from the perspective of the Taiwanese healthcare system.

PubMed

Yang, Tsong-Shing; Chi, Ching-Chi; Wang, Shu-Hui; Lin, Jing-Chi; Lin, Ko-Ming

2016-10-01

Biologic therapies are more effective but more costly than conventional therapies in treating psoriatic arthritis. To evaluate the cost-efficacy of etanercept, adalimumab and golimumab therapies in treating active psoriatic arthritis in a Taiwanese setting. We conducted a meta-analysis of randomized placebo-controlled trials to calculate the incremental efficacy of etanercept, adalimumab and golimumab, respectively, in achieving Psoriatic Arthritis Response Criteria (PsARC) and a 20% improvement in the American College of Rheumatology score (ACR20). The base, best, and worst case incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for one subject to achieve PsARC and ACR20 were calculated. The annual ICER per PsARC responder were US$27 047 (best scenario US$16 619; worst scenario US$31 350), US$39 339 (best scenario US$31 846; worst scenario US$53 501) and US$27 085 (best scenario US$22 716; worst scenario US$33 534) for etanercept, adalimumab and golimumab, respectively. The annual ICER per ACR20 responder were US$27 588 (best scenario US$20 900; worst scenario US$41 800), US$39 339 (best scenario US$25 236; worst scenario US$83 595) and US$33 534 (best scenario US$27 616; worst scenario US$44 013) for etanercept, adalimumab and golimumab, respectively. In a Taiwanese setting, etanercept had the lowest annual costs per PsARC and ACR20 responder, while adalimumab had the highest annual costs per PsARC and ACR responder. © 2015 Asia Pacific League of Associations for Rheumatology and Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

An Empirical Comparison of Discrete Choice Experiment and Best-Worst Scaling to Estimate Stakeholders' Risk Tolerance for Hip Replacement Surgery.

PubMed

van Dijk, Joris D; Groothuis-Oudshoorn, Catharina G M; Marshall, Deborah A; IJzerman, Maarten J

2016-06-01

Previous studies have been inconclusive regarding the validity and reliability of preference elicitation methods. The aim of this study was to compare the metrics obtained from a discrete choice experiment (DCE) and profile-case best-worst scaling (BWS) with respect to hip replacement. We surveyed the general US population of men aged 45 to 65 years, and potentially eligible for hip replacement surgery. The survey included sociodemographic questions, eight DCE questions, and twelve BWS questions. Attributes were the probability of a first and second revision, pain relief, ability to participate in sports and perform daily activities, and length of hospital stay. Conditional logit analysis was used to estimate attribute weights, level preferences, and the maximum acceptable risk (MAR) for undergoing revision surgery in six hypothetical treatment scenarios with different attribute levels. A total of 429 (96%) respondents were included. Comparable attribute weights and level preferences were found for both BWS and DCE. Preferences were greatest for hip replacement surgery with high pain relief and the ability to participate in sports and perform daily activities. Although the estimated MARs for revision surgery followed the same trend, the MARs were systematically higher in five of the six scenarios using DCE. This study confirms previous findings that BWS or DCEs are comparable in estimating attribute weights and level preferences. However, the risk tolerance threshold based on the estimation of MAR differs between these methods, possibly leading to inconsistency in comparing treatment scenarios. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The "Best Worst" Field Optimization and Focusing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vaughnn, David; Moore, Ken; Bock, Noah; Zhou, Wei; Ming, Liang; Wilson, Mark

2008-01-01

A simple algorithm for optimizing and focusing lens designs is presented. The goal of the algorithm is to simultaneously create the best and most uniform image quality over the field of view. Rather than relatively weighting multiple field points, only the image quality from the worst field point is considered. When optimizing a lens design, iterations are made to make this worst field point better until such a time as a different field point becomes worse. The same technique is used to determine focus position. The algorithm works with all the various image quality metrics. It works with both symmetrical and asymmetrical systems. It works with theoretical models and real hardware.

The Use of a Multiplanar, Multi-Axis External Fixator to Achieve Knee Arthrodesis in a Worst Case Scenario: A Case Series

PubMed Central

Raskolnikov, Dima; Slover, James D.; Egol, Kenneth A.

2013-01-01

Background One of the most catastrophic outcomes following total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is a chronic periprosthetic infection with concomitant failure of the knee extensor mechanism. This study retrospectively reviewed the clinical records of 7 patients who were treated with a 6 axis circular external fixation frame (Taylor Spatial Frame (TSF)) for this condition. Fusion was achieved in 5 of 7 patients (71%) at an average of 8.4 months after surgery. Complications occurred in the treatment of 5 of 7 patients (71%). Infection was controlled in all cases. The TSF presents another valuable tool, which the orthopaedic surgeon should consider when treating these difficult cases. Purpose To evaluate the use of the Taylor Spatial Frame (TSF) to achieve knee arthrodesis in patients with chronically infected total knee arthroplasties (TKAs) with concomitant failure of the knee extensor mechanism. Methods We retrospectively evaluated the clinical records of 7 patients who were referred to our tertiary care orthopaedic medical center with multiple failed knee arthroplasties, chronic draining infection and complete loss of the extensor mechanism. All patients were treated with a similar protocol including, debridement and bony stabilization with an adjustable, 6 axis circular external fixation frame (TSF). Hospital charts were reviewed for sociodemographic information, surgical details, hospital course and complications. Radiographs were reviewed for healing and alignment. Follow up included clinical examination and radiographs. Results The mean age of the patients was 70.9 years (range, 59 – 83 years) at the time of application of the TSF. There were 3 men and 4 women. The average time between TKA and diagnosis of infection was 30.7 months (range, 2.6 – 67.0 months). The 7 patients had undergone an average of 3.3 prior surgical procedures (range, 2-4 procedures) on the ipsilateral extremity. Fusion was achieved in 5 of 7 patients (71%) at an average of 8.4 months after

"Best Case/Worst Case": Training Surgeons to Use a Novel Communication Tool for High-Risk Acute Surgical Problems.

PubMed

Kruser, Jacqueline M; Taylor, Lauren J; Campbell, Toby C; Zelenski, Amy; Johnson, Sara K; Nabozny, Michael J; Steffens, Nicole M; Tucholka, Jennifer L; Kwekkeboom, Kris L; Schwarze, Margaret L

2017-04-01

Older adults often have surgery in the months preceding death, which can initiate postoperative treatments inconsistent with end-of-life values. "Best Case/Worst Case" (BC/WC) is a communication tool designed to promote goal-concordant care during discussions about high-risk surgery. The objective of this study was to evaluate a structured training program designed to teach surgeons how to use BC/WC. Twenty-five surgeons from one tertiary care hospital completed a two-hour training session followed by individual coaching. We audio-recorded surgeons using BC/WC with standardized patients and 20 hospitalized patients. Hospitalized patients and their families participated in an open-ended interview 30 to 120 days after enrollment. We used a checklist of 11 BC/WC elements to measure tool fidelity and surgeons completed the Practitioner Opinion Survey to measure acceptability of the tool. We used qualitative analysis to evaluate variability in tool content and to characterize patient and family perceptions of the tool. Surgeons completed a median of 10 of 11 BC/WC elements with both standardized and hospitalized patients (range 5-11). We found moderate variability in presentation of treatment options and description of outcomes. Three months after training, 79% of surgeons reported BC/WC is better than their usual approach and 71% endorsed active use of BC/WC in clinical practice. Patients and families found that BC/WC established expectations, provided clarity, and facilitated deliberation. Surgeons can learn to use BC/WC with older patients considering acute high-risk surgical interventions. Surgeons, patients, and family members endorse BC/WC as a strategy to support complex decision making. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Calculations of the skyshine gamma-ray dose rates from independent spent fuel storage installations (ISFSI) under worst case accident conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pace, J.V. III; Cramer, S.N.; Knight, J.R.

1980-09-01

Calculations of the skyshine gamma-ray dose rates from three spent fuel storage pools under worst case accident conditions have been made using the discrete ordinates code DOT-IV and the Monte Carlo code MORSE and have been compared to those of two previous methods. The DNA 37N-21G group cross-section library was utilized in the calculations, together with the Claiborne-Trubey gamma-ray dose factors taken from the same library. Plots of all results are presented. It was found that the dose was a strong function of the iron thickness over the fuel assemblies, the initial angular distribution of the emitted radiation, and themore » photon source near the top of the assemblies. 16 refs., 11 figs., 7 tabs.« less

Worst-Case Cooperative Jamming for Secure Communications in CIoT Networks.

PubMed

Li, Zhen; Jing, Tao; Ma, Liran; Huo, Yan; Qian, Jin

2016-03-07

The Internet of Things (IoT) is a significant branch of the ongoing advances in the Internet and mobile communications. The use of a large number of IoT devices makes the spectrum scarcity problem even more serious. The usable spectrum resources are almost entirely occupied, and thus, the increasing radio access demands of IoT devices cannot be met. To tackle this problem, the Cognitive Internet of Things (CIoT) has been proposed. In a CIoT network, secondary users, i.e., sensors and actuators, can access the licensed spectrum bands provided by licensed primary users (such as telephones). Security is a major concern in CIoT networks. However, the traditional encryption method at upper layers (such as symmetric cryptography and asymmetric cryptography) may be compromised in CIoT networks, since these types of networks are heterogeneous. In this paper, we address the security issue in spectrum-leasing-based CIoT networks using physical layer methods. Considering that the CIoT networks are cooperative networks, we propose to employ cooperative jamming to achieve secrecy transmission. In the cooperative jamming scheme, a certain secondary user is employed as the helper to harvest energy transmitted by the source and then uses the harvested energy to generate an artificial noise that jams the eavesdropper without interfering with the legitimate receivers. The goal is to minimize the signal to interference plus noise ratio (SINR) at the eavesdropper subject to the quality of service (QoS) constraints of the primary traffic and the secondary traffic. We formulate the considered minimization problem into a two-stage robust optimization problem based on the worst-case Channel State Information of the Eavesdropper. By using semi-definite programming (SDP), the optimal solutions of the transmit covariance matrices can be obtained. Moreover, in order to build an incentive mechanism for the secondary users, we propose an auction framework based on the cooperative jamming scheme

A multinational randomised study comparing didactic lectures with case scenario in a severe sepsis medical simulation course.

PubMed

Li, Chih-Huang; Kuan, Win-Sen; Mahadevan, Malcolm; Daniel-Underwood, Lynda; Chiu, Te-Fa; Nguyen, H Bryant

2012-07-01

Medical simulation has been used to teach critical illness in a variety of settings. This study examined the effect of didactic lectures compared with simulated case scenario in a medical simulation course on the early management of severe sepsis. A prospective multicentre randomised study was performed enrolling resident physicians in emergency medicine from four hospitals in Asia. Participants were randomly assigned to a course that included didactic lectures followed by a skills workshop and simulated case scenario (lecture-first) or to a course that included a skills workshop and simulated case scenario followed by didactic lectures (simulation-first). A pre-test was given to the participants at the beginning of the course, post-test 1 was given after the didactic lectures or simulated case scenario depending on the study group assignment, then a final post-test 2 was given at the end of the course. Performance on the simulated case scenario was evaluated with a performance task checklist. 98 participants were enrolled in the study. Post-test 2 scores were significantly higher than pre-test scores in all participants (80.8 ± 12.0% vs 65.4 ± 12.2%, p<0.01). There was no difference in pre-test scores between the two study groups. The lecture-first group had significantly higher post-test 1 scores than the simulation-first group (78.8 ± 10.6% vs 71.6 ± 12.6%, p<0.01). There was no difference in post-test 2 scores between the two groups. The simulated case scenario task performance completion was 90.8% (95% CI 86.6% to 95.0%) in the lecture-first group compared with 83.8% (95% CI 79.5% to 88.1%) in the simulation-first group (p=0.02). A medical simulation course can improve resident physician knowledge in the early management of severe sepsis. Such a course should include a comprehensive curriculum that includes didactic lectures followed by simulation experience.

Statistical analysis of environmental monitoring data: does a worst case time for monitoring clean rooms exist?

PubMed

Cundell, A M; Bean, R; Massimore, L; Maier, C

1998-01-01

To determine the relationship between the sampling time of the environmental monitoring, i.e., viable counts, in aseptic filling areas and the microbial count and frequency of alerts for air, surface and personnel microbial monitoring, statistical analyses were conducted on 1) the frequency of alerts versus the time of day for routine environmental sampling conducted in calendar year 1994, and 2) environmental monitoring data collected at 30-minute intervals during routine aseptic filling operations over two separate days in four different clean rooms with multiple shifts and equipment set-ups at a parenteral manufacturing facility. Statistical analyses showed, except for one floor location that had significantly higher number of counts but no alert or action level samplings in the first two hours of operation, there was no relationship between the number of counts and the time of sampling. Further studies over a 30-day period at the floor location showed no relationship between time of sampling and microbial counts. The conclusion reached in the study was that there is no worst case time for environmental monitoring at that facility and that sampling any time during the aseptic filling operation will give a satisfactory measure of the microbial cleanliness in the clean room during the set-up and aseptic filling operation.

Specific exercises reduce brace prescription in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis: a prospective controlled cohort study with worst-case analysis.

PubMed

Negrini, Stefano; Zaina, Fabio; Romano, Michele; Negrini, Alessandra; Parzini, Silvana

2008-06-01

To compare the effect of Scientific Exercises Approach to Scoliosis (SEAS) exercises with "usual care" rehabilitation programmes in terms of the avoidance of brace prescription and prevention of curve progression in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis. Prospective controlled cohort observational study. Seventy-four consecutive outpatients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis, mean 15 degrees (standard deviation 6) Cobb angle, 12.4 (standard deviation 2.2) years old, at risk of bracing who had not been treated previously. Thirty-five patients were included in the SEAS exercises group and 39 in the usual physiotherapy group. The primary outcome included the number of braced patients, Cobb angle and the angle of trunk rotation. There were 6.1% braced patients in the SEAS exercises group vs 25.0% in the usual physiotherapy group. Failures of treatment in the worst-case analysis were 11.5% and 30.8%, respectively. In both cases the differences were statistically significant. Cobb angle improved in the SEAS exercises group, but worsened in the usual physiotherapy group. In the SEAS exercises group, 23.5% of patients improved and 11.8% worsened, while in the usual physiotherapy group 11.1% improved and 13.9% worsened. These data confirm the effectiveness of exercises in patients with scoliosis who are at high risk of progression. Compared with non-adapted exercises, a specific and personalized treatment (SEAS) appears to be more effective.

Modeling post-fire sediment yield based on two burn scenarios at the Sooke Lake Reservoir, BC, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobre, Mariana; Elliot, William J.; Brooks, Erin S.; Smith, Tim

2016-04-01

Wildfires can have major adverse effects on municipal water sources. Local governments need methods to evaluate fire risk and to develop mitigation procedures. The Sooke Lake Reservoir is the primary source of water for the city of Victoria, BC and the concern is that sediment delivered from upland burned areas could have a detrimental impact on the reservoir and the water supply. We conducted a sediment delivery modeling pilot study on a portion of the Sooke Lake Reservoir (specifically, the Trestle Creek Management Unit (TCMU)) to evaluate the potential impacts of wildfire on sediment delivery from hillslopes and sub-catchments. We used a process-based hydrologic and soil erosion model called Water Erosion Prediction Project geospatial interface, GeoWEPP, to predict the sediment delivery from specific return period design storms for two burn severity scenarios: real (low-intensity burn severity) and worst (high-intensity burn severity) case scenarios. The GeoWEPP model allows users to simulate streamflow and erosion from hillslope polygons within a watershed. The model requires information on the topographic, soil and vegetative characteristics for each hillslope and a weather file. WEPP default values and several assumptions were necessary to apply the model where data were missing. Based on a 10-m DEM we delineated 16 watersheds within the TCMU area. A long term 100-year daily climate file was generated for this analysis using the CLIGEN model based on the historical observations recorded at Concrete, WA in United States, and adjusted for observed monthly precipitation observed in the Sooke Basin. We ran 100-year simulations and calculated yearly and event-based return periods (for 2, 5, 10, 20, 25, and 50 years) for each of the 16 watersheds. Overall, WEPP simulations indicate that the storms that are most likely to produce the greatest runoff and sediment load in these coastal, maritime climates with relatively low rainfall intensities are likely to occur in

A Case-Based Scenario with Interdisciplinary Guided-Inquiry in Chemistry and Biology: Experiences of First Year Forensic Science Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cresswell, Sarah L.; Loughlin, Wendy A.

2017-01-01

In this paper, insight into forensic science students' experiences of a case-based scenario with an interdisciplinary guided-inquiry experience in chemistry and biology is presented. Evaluation of student experiences and interest showed that the students were engaged with all aspects of the case-based scenario, including the curriculum theory…

Scenario Based Approach for Multiple Source Tsunami Hazard Assessment for Sines, Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wronna, Martin; Omira, Rachid; Baptista, Maria Ana

2015-04-01

In this paper, we present a scenario-based approach for tsunami hazard assessment for the city and harbour of Sines, Portugal one the test-sites of project ASTARTE. Sines holds one of the most important deep-water ports which contains oil-bearing, petrochemical, liquid bulk, coal and container terminals. The port and its industrial infrastructures are facing the ocean to the southwest facing the main seismogenic sources. This work considers two different seismic zones: the Southwest Iberian Margin and the Gloria Fault. Within these two regions, a total of five scenarios were selected to assess tsunami impact at the test site. These scenarios correspond to the worst-case credible scenario approach based upon the largest events of the historical and paleo tsunami catalogues. The tsunami simulations from the source area towards the coast is carried out using NSWING a Non-linear Shallow Water Model With Nested Grids. The code solves the non-linear shallow water equations using the discretization and explicit leap-frog finite difference scheme, in a Cartesian or Spherical frame. The initial sea surface displacement is assumed to be equal to the sea bottom deformation that is computed by Okada equations. Both uniform and non-uniform slip conditions are used. The presented results correspond to the models using non-uniform slip conditions. In this study, the static effect of tides is analysed for three different tidal stages MLLW (mean lower low water) MSL (mean sea level) and MHHW (mean higher high water). For each scenario, inundation is described by maximum values of wave height, flow depth, drawdown, run-up and inundation distance. Synthetic waveforms are computed at virtual tide gages at specific locations outside and inside the harbour. The final results consist of Aggregate Scenario Maps presented for the different inundation parameters. This work is funded by ASTARTE - Assessment, Strategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe - FP7-ENV2013 6.4-3, Grant 603839

Pesticide exposure assessment for surface waters in the EU. Part 2: Determination of statistically based run-off and drainage scenarios for Germany.

PubMed

Bach, Martin; Diesner, Mirjam; Großmann, Dietlinde; Guerniche, Djamal; Hommen, Udo; Klein, Michael; Kubiak, Roland; Müller, Alexandra; Preuss, Thomas G; Priegnitz, Jan; Reichenberger, Stefan; Thomas, Kai; Trapp, Matthias

2017-05-01

In order to assess surface water exposure to active substances of plant protection products (PPPs) in the European Union (EU), the FOCUS (FOrum for the Co-ordination of pesticide fate models and their USe) surface water workgroup introduced four run-off and six drainage scenarios for Step 3 of the tiered FOCUSsw approach. These scenarios may not necessarily represent realistic worst-case situations for the different Member States of the EU. Hence, the suitability of the scenarios for risk assessment in the national authorisation procedures is not known. Using Germany as an example, the paper illustrates how national soil-climate scenarios can be developed to model entries of active substances into surface waters from run-off and erosion (using the model PRZM) and from drainage (using the model MACRO). In the authorisation procedure for PPPs on Member State level, such soil-climate scenarios can be used to determine exposure endpoints with a defined overall percentile. The approach allows the development of national specific soil-climate scenarios and to calculate percentile-based exposure endpoints. The scenarios have been integrated into a software tool analogous to FOCUS-SWASH which can be used in the future to assess surface water exposure in authorisation procedures of PPPs in Germany. © 2017 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Performance of a normalized energy metric without jammer state information for an FH/MFSK system in worst case partial band jamming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, P. J.

1985-01-01

For a frequency-hopped noncoherent MFSK communication system without jammer state information (JSI) in a worst case partial band jamming environment, it is well known that the use of a conventional unquantized metric results in very poor performance. In this paper, a 'normalized' unquantized energy metric is suggested for such a system. It is shown that with this metric, one can save 2-3 dB in required signal energy over the system with hard decision metric without JSI for the same desired performance. When this very robust metric is compared to the conventional unquantized energy metric with JSI, the loss in required signal energy is shown to be small. Thus, the use of this normalized metric provides performance comparable to systems for which JSI is known. Cutoff rate and bit error rate with dual-k coding are used for the performance measures.

Generating local scale land use/cover change scenarios: case studies of high-risk mountain areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas; Boerboom, Luc

2014-05-01

The relationship between land use/cover changes and consequences to human well-being is well acknowledged and has led to higher interest of both researchers and decision makers in driving forces and consequences of such changes. For example, removal of natural vegetation cover or urban expansion resulting in new elements at risk can increase hydro-meteorological risk. This is why it is necessary to study how the land use/cover could evolve in the future. Emphasis should especially be given to areas experiencing, or expecting, high rates of socio-economic change. A suitable approach to address these changes is scenario development; it offers exploring possible futures and the corresponding environmental consequences, and aids decision-making, as it enables to analyse possible options. Scenarios provide a creative methodology to depict possible futures, resulting from existing decisions, based on different assumptions of future socio-economic development. They have been used in various disciplines and on various scales, such as flood risk and soil erosion. Several studies have simulated future scenarios of land use/cover changes at a very high success rate, however usually these approaches are tailor made for specific case study areas and fit to available data. This study presents a multi-step scenario generation framework, which can be transferable to other local scale case study areas, taking into account the case study specific consequences of land use/cover changes. Through the use of experts' and decision-makers' knowledge, we aimed to develop a framework with the following characteristics: (1) it enables development of scenarios that are plausible, (2) it can overcome data inaccessibility, (3) it can address intangible and external driving forces of land use/cover change, and (4) it ensures transferability to other local scale case study areas with different land use/cover change processes and consequences. To achieve this, a set of different methods is applied

Determining access to assisted reproductive technology: reactions of clinic directors to ethically complex case scenarios.

PubMed

Stern, J E; Cramer, C P; Green, R M; Garrod, A; DeVries, K O

2003-06-01

Our aim was to increase understanding of how patient selection is handled by assisted reproductive technology (ART) clinicians. Ethically complex case scenarios were evaluated by the directors of USA ART clinics. Scenarios included using a son as sperm donor for his father, sex selection without associated disease, treatment of morally irresponsible couples, and a dispute over embryo disposition. Respondents reviewed eight scenarios and gave their opinions on whether to offer treatment. Reasons given for these decisions were placed into one of 13 categories. Survey response rate was 57%. Between 3 and 50% of respondents would treat in each case. Of reasons given, 'conditional' responses (requiring counselling, blood tests or agreement to other 'conditions') were common (31.4%). Non-maleficence (risk) accounted for 29.4% of responses, philosophy of medicine 18.9%, respect for patient autonomy 5.9% and legal concerns 4.6%. Discrimination and threats were each significant in one case. Reasons evoking absolutist beliefs, personal discomfort, commitment to justice, religion and ethical relativism were rare. Clinicians felt conflict between a desire to respect patient autonomy and their discomfort over the risk associated with the procedure. They raised concerns about misuse of medical technology. Attempts to resolve complex issues through negotiation and compromise were common.

A semi-quantitative World Health Organization grading scheme evaluating worst tumor differentiation predicts disease-free survival in oral squamous carcinoma patients.

PubMed

Jain, Dhruv; Tikku, Gargi; Bhadana, Pallavi; Dravid, Chandrashekhar; Grover, Rajesh Kumar

2017-08-01

We investigated World Health Organization (WHO) grading and pattern of invasion based histological schemes as independent predictors of disease-free survival, in oral squamous carcinoma patients. Tumor resection slides of eighty-seven oral squamous carcinoma patients [pTNM: I&II/III&IV-32/55] were evaluated. Besides examining various patterns of invasion, invasive front grade, predominant and worst (highest) WHO grade were recorded. For worst WHO grading, poor-undifferentiated component was estimated semi-quantitatively at advancing tumor edge (invasive growth front) in histology sections. Tumor recurrence was observed in 31 (35.6%) cases. The 2-year disease-free survival was 47% [Median: 656; follow-up: 14-1450] days. Using receiver operating characteristic curves, we defined poor-undifferentiated component exceeding 5% of tumor as the cutoff to assign an oral squamous carcinoma as grade-3, when following worst WHO grading. Kaplan-Meier curves for disease-free survival revealed prognostic association with nodal involvement, tumor size, worst WHO grading; most common pattern of invasion and invasive pattern grading score (sum of two most predominant patterns of invasion). In further multivariate analysis, tumor size (>2.5cm) and worst WHO grading (grade-3 tumors) independently predicted reduced disease-free survival [HR, 2.85; P=0.028 and HR, 3.37; P=0.031 respectively]. The inter-observer agreement was moderate for observers who semi-quantitatively estimated percentage of poor-undifferentiated morphology in oral squamous carcinomas. Our results support the value of semi-quantitative method to assign tumors as grade-3 with worst WHO grading for predicting reduced disease-free survival. Despite limitations, of the various histological tumor stratification schemes, WHO grading holds adjunctive value for its prognostic role, ease and universal familiarity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Scenario management and automated scenario generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKeever, William; Gilmour, Duane; Lehman, Lynn; Stirtzinger, Anthony; Krause, Lee

2006-05-01

The military planning process utilizes simulation to determine the appropriate course of action (COA) that will achieve a campaign end state. However, due to the difficulty in developing and generating simulation level COAs, only a few COAs are simulated. This may have been appropriate for traditional conflicts but the evolution of warfare from attrition based to effects based strategies, as well as the complexities of 4 th generation warfare and asymmetric adversaries have placed additional demands on military planners and simulation. To keep pace with this dynamic, changing environment, planners must be able to perform continuous, multiple, "what-if" COA analysis. Scenario management and generation are critical elements to achieving this goal. An effects based scenario generation research project demonstrated the feasibility of automated scenario generation techniques which support multiple stove-pipe and emerging broad scope simulations. This paper will discuss a case study in which the scenario generation capability was employed to support COA simulations to identify plan effectiveness. The study demonstrated the effectiveness of using multiple simulation runs to evaluate the effectiveness of alternate COAs in achieving the overall campaign (metrics-based) objectives. The paper will discuss how scenario generation technology can be employed to allow military commanders and mission planning staff to understand the impact of command decisions on the battlespace of tomorrow.

RMP Guidance for Warehouses - Chapter 4: Offsite Consequence Analysis

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Offsite consequence analysis (OCA) informs government and the public about potential consequences of an accidental toxic or flammable chemical release at your facility, and consists of a worst-case release scenario and alternative release scenarios.

RMP Guidance for Chemical Distributors - Chapter 4: Offsite Consequence Analysis

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

How to perform the OCA for regulated substances, informing the government and the public about potential consequences of an accidental chemical release at your facility. Includes calculations for worst-case scenario, alternative scenarios, and endpoints.

78 FR 49831 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Proposed Designation of Critical Habitat for...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-08-15

... Service (NPS) for the Florida leafwing and the pine rockland ecosystem, in general. Sea Level Rise... habitat. In the best case scenario, which assumes low sea level rise, high financial resources, proactive... human population. In the worst case scenario, which assumes high sea level rise, low financial resources...

Engineering and environmental remediation scenarios due to leakage from the Gulf War oil spill using 3-D numerical contaminant modellings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yihdego, Yohannes; Al-Weshah, Radwan A.

2017-11-01

The transport groundwater modelling has been undertaken to assess potential remediation scenarios and provide an optimal remediation options for consideration. The purpose of the study was to allow 50 years of predictive remediation simulation time. The results depict the likely total petroleum hydrocarbon migration pattern in the area under the worst-case scenario. The remediation scenario simulations indicate that do nothing approach will likely not achieve the target water quality within 50 years. Similarly, complete source removal approach will also likely not achieve the target water quality within 50 years. Partial source removal could be expected to remove a significant portion of the contaminant mass, but would increase the rate of contaminant recharge in the short to medium term. The pump-treat-reinject simulation indicates that the option appears feasible and could achieve a reduction in the area of the 0.01 mg/L TPH contour area for both Raudhatain and Umm Al-Aish by 35 and 30%, respectively, within 50 years. The rate of improvement and the completion date would depend on a range of factors such as bore field arrangements, pumping rates, reinjection water quality and additional volumes being introduced and require further optimisation and field pilot trials.

Estimates of radiological risk from depleted uranium weapons in war scenarios.

PubMed

Durante, Marco; Pugliese, Mariagabriella

2002-01-01

Several weapons used during the recent conflict in Yugoslavia contain depleted uranium, including missiles and armor-piercing incendiary rounds. Health concern is related to the use of these weapons, because of the heavy-metal toxicity and radioactivity of uranium. Although chemical toxicity is considered the more important source of health risk related to uranium, radiation exposure has been allegedly related to cancers among veterans of the Balkan conflict, and uranium munitions are a possible source of contamination in the environment. Actual measurements of radioactive contamination are needed to assess the risk. In this paper, a computer simulation is proposed to estimate radiological risk related to different exposure scenarios. Dose caused by inhalation of radioactive aerosols and ground contamination induced by Tomahawk missile impact are simulated using a Gaussian plume model (HOTSPOT code). Environmental contamination and committed dose to the population resident in contaminated areas are predicted by a food-web model (RESRAD code). Small values of committed effective dose equivalent appear to be associated with missile impacts (50-y CEDE < 5 mSv), or population exposure by water-independent pathways (50-y CEDE < 80 mSv). The greatest hazard is related to the water contamination in conditions of effective leaching of uranium in the groundwater (50-y CEDE < 400 mSv). Even in this worst case scenario, the chemical toxicity largely predominates over radiological risk. These computer simulations suggest that little radiological risk is associated to the use of depleted uranium weapons.

Assessments of direct human exposure: the approach of EU risk assessments compared to scenario-based risk assessment.

PubMed

Wormuth, Matthias; Demou, Evangelia; Scheringer, Martin; Hungerbühler, Konrad

2007-08-01

The awareness of potential risks emerging from the use of chemicals in all parts of daily life has increased the need for risk assessments that are able to cover a high number of exposure situations and thereby ensure the safety of workers and consumers. In the European Union (EU), the practice of risk assessments for chemicals is laid down in a Technical Guidance Document; it is designed to consider environmental and human occupational and residential exposure. Almost 70 EU risk assessment reports (RARs) have been finalized for high-production-volume chemicals during the last decade. In the present study, we analyze the assessment of occupational and consumer exposure to trichloroethylene and phthalates presented in six EU RARs. Exposure scenarios in these six RARs were compared to scenarios used in applications of the scenario-based risk assessment approach to the same set of chemicals. We find that scenarios used in the selected EU RARs to represent typical exposure situations in occupational or private use of chemicals and products do not necessarily represent worst-case conditions. This can be due to the use of outdated information on technical equipment and conditions in workplaces or omission of pathways that can cause consumer exposure. Considering the need for exposure and risk assessments under the new chemicals legislation of the EU, we suggest that a transparent process of collecting data on exposure situations and of generating representative exposure scenarios is implemented to improve the accuracy of risk assessments. Also, the data sets used to assess human exposure should be harmonized, summarized in a transparent fashion, and made accessible for all risk assessors and the public.

RMP Guidance for Offsite Consequence Analysis

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Offsite consequence analysis (OCA) consists of a worst-case release scenario and alternative release scenarios. OCA is required from facilities with chemicals above threshold quantities. RMP*Comp software can be used to perform calculations described here.

Ecological scenarios analyzed and evaluated by a shallow lake model.

PubMed

Kardaetz, Sascha; Strube, Torsten; Brüggemann, Rainer; Nützmann, Gunnar

2008-07-01

We applied the complex ecosystem model EMMO, which was adopted to the shallow lake Müggelsee (Germany), in order to evaluate a large set of ecological scenarios. By means of EMMO, 33 scenarios and 17 indicators were defined to characterize their effects on the lake ecosystem. The indicators were based on model outputs of EMMO and can be separated into biological indicators, such as chlorophyll-a and cyanobacteria, and hydro-chemical indicators, such as phosphorus. The question to be solved was, what is the ranking of the scenarios based on their characterization by these 17 indicators? And how can we handle high quantities of complex data within evaluation procedures? The scenario evaluation was performed by partial order theory which, however, did not provide a clear result. By subsequently applying the hierarchical cluster analysis (complete linkage) it was possible to reduce the data matrix to indicator and scenario representatives. Even though this step implies losses of information, it simplifies the application of partial order theory and the post processing by METEOR. METEOR is derived from partial order theory and allows the stepwise aggregation of indicators, which subsequently leads to a distinct and clear decision. In the final evaluation result the best scenario was the one which defines a minimum nutrient input and no phosphorus release from the sediment while the worst scenario is characterized by a maximum nutrient input and extensive phosphorus release from the sediment. The reasonable and comprehensive results show that the combination of partial order, cluster analysis and METEOR can handle big amounts of data in a very clear and transparent way, and therefore is ideal in the context of complex ecosystem models, like that we applied.

Reenacted Case Scenarios for Undergraduate Healthcare Students to Illustrate Person-Centered Care in Dementia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bradley, Sandra L.; De Bellis, Anita; Guerin, Pauline; Walters, Bonnie; Wotherspoon, Alison; Cecchin, Maggie; Paterson, Jan

2010-01-01

Healthcare practitioners have suggested that interpreting person-centered care for people who have dementia to undergraduate students requires guidance in practical application. This article describes the production of a written and digital interdisciplinary educational resource for tertiary students. It uses real-life case scenarios provided by…

RMP*Comp

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

You can use this free software program to complete the Off-site Consequence Analyses (both worst case scenarios and alternative scenarios) required under the Risk Management Program rule, so that you don't have to do calculations by hand.

Experimental Evaluation of PV Inverter Anti-Islanding with Grid Support Functions in Multi-Inverter Island Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoke, Anderson; Nelson, Austin; Miller, Brian

load based anti-islanding tests to determine the worst-case configuration of grid support functions for each inverter. A grid support function is a function an inverter performs to help stabilize the grid or drive the grid back towards its nominal operating point. The four grid support functions examined here were voltage ride-through, frequency ride-through, Volt-VAr control, and frequency-Watt control. The worst-case grid support configuration was defined as the configuration that led to the maximum island duration (or run-on time, ROT) out of 50 tests of each inverter. For each of the three inverters, it was observed that maximum ROT increased when voltage and frequency ride-through were activated. No conclusive evidence was found that Volt-VAr control or frequency-Watt control increased maximum ROT. Over all single-inverter test cases, the maximum ROT was 711 ms, well below the two-second limit currently imposed by IEEE Standard 1547-2003. A subsequent series of 244 experiments tested all three inverters simultaneously in the same island. These tests again used a procedure based on the IEEE 1547.1 unintentional islanding test to create a difficult-to-detect island condition. For these tests, which used the two worst-case grid support function configurations from the single-inverter tests, the inverters were connected to a variety of island circuit topologies designed to represent the variety of multiple-inverter islands that may occur on real distribution circuits. The interconnecting circuits and the resonant island load itself were represented in the real-time PHIL model. PHIL techniques similar to those employed here have been previously used and validated for anti-islanding tests, and the PHIL resonant load model used in this test was successfully validated by comparing single-inverter PHIL tests to conventional tests using an RLC load bank.« less

Assessing the robustness of passive scattering proton therapy with regard to local recurrence in stage III non-small cell lung cancer: a secondary analysis of a phase II trial.

PubMed

Zhu, Zhengfei; Liu, Wei; Gillin, Michael; Gomez, Daniel R; Komaki, Ritsuko; Cox, James D; Mohan, Radhe; Chang, Joe Y

2014-05-06

We assessed the robustness of passive scattering proton therapy (PSPT) plans for patients in a phase II trial of PSPT for stage III non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) by using the worst-case scenario method, and compared the worst-case dose distributions with the appearance of locally recurrent lesions. Worst-case dose distributions were generated for each of 9 patients who experienced recurrence after concurrent chemotherapy and PSPT to 74 Gy(RBE) for stage III NSCLC by simulating and incorporating uncertainties associated with set-up, respiration-induced organ motion, and proton range in the planning process. The worst-case CT scans were then fused with the positron emission tomography (PET) scans to locate the recurrence. Although the volumes enclosed by the prescription isodose lines in the worst-case dose distributions were consistently smaller than enclosed volumes in the nominal plans, the target dose coverage was not significantly affected: only one patient had a recurrence outside the prescription isodose lines in the worst-case plan. PSPT is a relatively robust technique. Local recurrence was not associated with target underdosage resulting from estimated uncertainties in 8 of 9 cases.

Tsunamigenic scenarios for southern Peru and northern Chile seismic gap: Deterministic and probabilistic hybrid approach for hazard assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Carrasco, J. F.; Gonzalez, G.; Aránguiz, R.; Yanez, G. A.; Melgar, D.; Salazar, P.; Shrivastava, M. N.; Das, R.; Catalan, P. A.; Cienfuegos, R.

2017-12-01

Plausible worst-case tsunamigenic scenarios definition plays a relevant role in tsunami hazard assessment focused in emergency preparedness and evacuation planning for coastal communities. During the last decade, the occurrence of major and moderate tsunamigenic earthquakes along worldwide subduction zones has given clues about critical parameters involved in near-field tsunami inundation processes, i.e. slip spatial distribution, shelf resonance of edge waves and local geomorphology effects. To analyze the effects of these seismic and hydrodynamic variables over the epistemic uncertainty of coastal inundation, we implement a combined methodology using deterministic and probabilistic approaches to construct 420 tsunamigenic scenarios in a mature seismic gap of southern Peru and northern Chile, extended from 17ºS to 24ºS. The deterministic scenarios are calculated using a regional distribution of trench-parallel gravity anomaly (TPGA) and trench-parallel topography anomaly (TPTA), three-dimensional Slab 1.0 worldwide subduction zones geometry model and published interseismic coupling (ISC) distributions. As result, we find four higher slip deficit zones interpreted as major seismic asperities of the gap, used in a hierarchical tree scheme to generate ten tsunamigenic scenarios with seismic magnitudes fluctuates between Mw 8.4 to Mw 8.9. Additionally, we construct ten homogeneous slip scenarios as inundation baseline. For the probabilistic approach, we implement a Karhunen - Loève expansion to generate 400 stochastic tsunamigenic scenarios over the maximum extension of the gap, with the same magnitude range of the deterministic sources. All the scenarios are simulated through a non-hydrostatic tsunami model Neowave 2D, using a classical nesting scheme, for five coastal major cities in northern Chile (Arica, Iquique, Tocopilla, Mejillones and Antofagasta) obtaining high resolution data of inundation depth, runup, coastal currents and sea level elevation. The

Disaster Preparedness: Anticipating the Worst Case Scenario Issue Paper Volume 05-05, March 2005

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-03-01

PROFESSOR B.E GRIFFARD, COL (RET.) ART BRAD4sAW; AND DR. KENT HUGnES BUTTs "Volcanic arcs and oceanic trenches partly encircling the Pacific Basin ...2004 Tsunami, triggered by a magnitude 9.0 earth- assists international organizations and other northern Sumatra . countries in sizing appropriate...Kathmandu, the United States Central Command, and the United States Army War College Center for Strategic Leadership. The conference focused on

Preparing for the Worst-Case Scenario--Planning Pays Off with First-Ever Stadium Evacuation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bradley, Carol C.

2012-01-01

It's Saturday, September 3, Notre Dame vs. South Florida--the first home game of the season--and nearing halftime. The only person feeling more pressure than Head Coach Brian Kelly is Mike Seamon, associate vice president for campus safety and director of game day operations. Bad weather is on the way, and he's about to make the call to evacuate…

Estimated cost of universal public coverage of prescription drugs in Canada

PubMed Central

Morgan, Steven G.; Law, Michael; Daw, Jamie R.; Abraham, Liza; Martin, Danielle

2015-01-01

Background: With the exception of Canada, all countries with universal health insurance systems provide universal coverage of prescription drugs. Progress toward universal public drug coverage in Canada has been slow, in part because of concerns about the potential costs. We sought to estimate the cost of implementing universal public coverage of prescription drugs in Canada. Methods: We used published data on prescribing patterns and costs by drug type, as well as source of funding (i.e., private drug plans, public drug plans and out-of-pocket expenses), in each province to estimate the cost of universal public coverage of prescription drugs from the perspectives of government, private payers and society as a whole. We estimated the cost of universal public drug coverage based on its anticipated effects on the volume of prescriptions filled, products selected and prices paid. We selected these parameters based on current policies and practices seen either in a Canadian province or in an international comparator. Results: Universal public drug coverage would reduce total spending on prescription drugs in Canada by $7.3 billion (worst-case scenario $4.2 billion, best-case scenario $9.4 billion). The private sector would save $8.2 billion (worst-case scenario $6.6 billion, best-case scenario $9.6 billion), whereas costs to government would increase by about $1.0 billion (worst-case scenario $5.4 billion net increase, best-case scenario $2.9 billion net savings). Most of the projected increase in government costs would arise from a small number of drug classes. Interpretation: The long-term barrier to the implementation of universal pharmacare owing to its perceived costs appears to be unjustified. Universal public drug coverage would likely yield substantial savings to the private sector with comparatively little increase in costs to government. PMID:25780047

Estimated cost of universal public coverage of prescription drugs in Canada.

PubMed

Morgan, Steven G; Law, Michael; Daw, Jamie R; Abraham, Liza; Martin, Danielle

2015-04-21

With the exception of Canada, all countries with universal health insurance systems provide universal coverage of prescription drugs. Progress toward universal public drug coverage in Canada has been slow, in part because of concerns about the potential costs. We sought to estimate the cost of implementing universal public coverage of prescription drugs in Canada. We used published data on prescribing patterns and costs by drug type, as well as source of funding (i.e., private drug plans, public drug plans and out-of-pocket expenses), in each province to estimate the cost of universal public coverage of prescription drugs from the perspectives of government, private payers and society as a whole. We estimated the cost of universal public drug coverage based on its anticipated effects on the volume of prescriptions filled, products selected and prices paid. We selected these parameters based on current policies and practices seen either in a Canadian province or in an international comparator. Universal public drug coverage would reduce total spending on prescription drugs in Canada by $7.3 billion (worst-case scenario $4.2 billion, best-case scenario $9.4 billion). The private sector would save $8.2 billion (worst-case scenario $6.6 billion, best-case scenario $9.6 billion), whereas costs to government would increase by about $1.0 billion (worst-case scenario $5.4 billion net increase, best-case scenario $2.9 billion net savings). Most of the projected increase in government costs would arise from a small number of drug classes. The long-term barrier to the implementation of universal pharmacare owing to its perceived costs appears to be unjustified. Universal public drug coverage would likely yield substantial savings to the private sector with comparatively little increase in costs to government. © 2015 Canadian Medical Association or its licensors.

Alternative Geothermal Power Production Scenarios

DOE Data Explorer

Sullivan, John

2014-03-14

The information given in this file pertains to Argonne LCAs of the plant cycle stage for a set of ten new geothermal scenario pairs, each comprised of a reference and improved case. These analyses were conducted to compare environmental performances among the scenarios and cases. The types of plants evaluated are hydrothermal binary and flash and Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) binary and flash plants. Each scenario pair was developed by the LCOE group using GETEM as a way to identify plant operational and resource combinations that could reduce geothermal power plant LCOE values. Based on the specified plant and well field characteristics (plant type, capacity, capacity factor and lifetime, and well numbers and depths) for each case of each pair, Argonne generated a corresponding set of material to power ratios (MPRs) and greenhouse gas and fossil energy ratios.

Analysis of Glenoid Fixation with Anatomic Total Shoulder Arthroplasty in an Extreme Cyclic Loading Scenario.

PubMed

Roche, Christopher P; Staunch, Cameron; Hahn, William; Grey, Sean G; Flurin, Pierre-Henri; Wright, Thomas W; Zuckerman, Joseph D

2015-12-01

ASTM F2028-14 was adopted to recom mend a cyclic eccentric glenoid edge loading test that simulates the rocking horse loading mechanism beleived to cause aTSA glenoid loosening. While this method accurately simulates that failure mechanism, the recommended 750 N load may not be sufficient to simulate worst-case loading magnitudes, and the recommended 100,000 cycles may not be sufficient to simulate device fatigue-related failure modes. Finally, if greater loading magnitude or a larger number of cycles is performed, the recommended substrate density may not be sufficiently strong to support the elevated loads and cycles. To this end, a new test method is proposed to supplement ASTM F2028-14. A series of cyclic tests were performed to evaluate the long-term fixation strength of two different hybrid glenoid designs in both low (15 pcf) and high (30 pcf) density polyurethane blocks at elevated loads relative to ASTM F2028-14. To simulate a worst case clinical condition in which the humeral head is superiorly migrated, a cyclic load was applied to the superior glenoid rim to induce a maximum torque on the fixation pegs for three different cyclic loading tests: 1. 1,250 N load for 0.75 M cycles in a 15 pcf block, 2. 1,250 N load for 1.5 M cycles in a 30 pcf block, and 3. 2,000 N load for 0.65 M cycles in a 30 pcf block. All devices completed cyclic loading without failure, fracture, or loss of fixation regardless of glenoid design, polyurethane density, loading magnitude, or cycle length. No significant difference in post-cyclic displacement was noted between designs in any of the three tests. Post-cyclic radiographs demonstrated that each device maintained fixa - tion with the metal pegs within the bone-substitute blocks with no fatigue related failures. These results demonstrate that both cemented hybrid glenoids maintained fixation when tested according to each cyclic loading scenario, with no difference in post-cyclic displacement observed between designs. The lack

Elementary Social Studies in 2005: Danger or Opportunity?--A Response to Jeff Passe

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Libresco, Andrea S.

2006-01-01

From the emphasis on lower-level test-prep materials to the disappearance of the subject altogether, elementary social studies is, in the best case scenario, being tested and, thus, taught with a heavy emphasis on recall; and, in the worst-case scenario, not being taught at all. In this article, the author responds to Jeff Passe's views on…

Scenario-based and scenario-neutral assessment of climate change impacts on operational performance of a multipurpose reservoir

Treesearch

Allison G. Danner; Mohammad Safeeq; Gordon E. Grant; Charlotte Wickham; Desirée Tullos; Mary V. Santelmann

2017-01-01

Scenario-based and scenario-neutral impacts assessment approaches provide complementary information about how climate change-driven effects on streamflow may change the operational performance of multipurpose dams. Examining a case study of Cougar Dam in Oregon, United States, we simulated current reservoir operations under scenarios of plausible future hydrology....

A Diffusion Model Explanation of the Worst Performance Rule for Reaction Time and IQ

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ratcliff, Roger; Schmiedek, Florian; McKoon, Gail

2008-01-01

The worst performance rule for cognitive tasks [Coyle, T.R. (2003). IQ, the worst performance rule, and Spearman's law: A reanalysis and extension. "Intelligence," 31, 567-587] in which reaction time is measured is the result that IQ scores correlate better with longer (i.e., 0.7 and 0.9 quantile) reaction times than shorter (i.e., 0.1 and 0.3…

The ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario - A Story That Southern Californians Are Writing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, Suzanne; Cox, Dale; Jones, Lucile; Bernknopf, Richard; Goltz, James; Hudnut, Kenneth; Mileti, Dennis; Ponti, Daniel; Porter, Keith; Reichle, Michael; Seligson, Hope; Shoaf, Kimberley; Treiman, Jerry; Wein, Anne

2008-01-01

resulting losses are one realistic outcome, deliberately not a worst-case scenario, rather one worth preparing for and mitigating against. Decades of improving the life-safety requirements in building codes have greatly reduced the risk of death in earthquakes, yet southern California's economic and social systems are still vulnerable to large-scale disruptions. Because of this, the ShakeOut Scenario earthquake would dramatically alter the nature of the southern California community. Fortunately, steps can be taken now that can change that outcome and repay any costs many times over. The ShakeOut Scenario is the first public product of the USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project, created to show how hazards science can increase a community's resiliency to natural disasters through improved planning, mitigation, and response.

Scenarios and methods that induce protruding or released CNTs after degradation of nanocomposite materials.

PubMed

Hirth, Sabine; Cena, Lorenzo; Cox, Gerhard; Tomović, Zeljko; Peters, Thomas; Wohlleben, Wendel

2013-04-01

Nanocomposite materials may be considered as a low-risk application of nanotechnology, if the nanofillers remain embedded throughout the life-cycle of the products in which they are embedded. We hypothesize that release of free CNTs occurs by a combination of mechanical stress and chemical degradation of the polymer matrix. We experimentally address limiting cases: Mechanically released fragments may show tubular protrusions on their surface. Here we identify these protrusions unambiguously as naked CNTs by chemically resolved microscopy and a suitable preparation protocol. By size-selective quantification of fragments we establish as a lower limit that at least 95 % of the CNTs remain embedded. Contrary to classical fiber composite approaches, we link this phenomenon to matrix materials with only a few percent elongation at break, predicting which materials should still cover their CNT nanofillers after machining. Protruding networks of CNTs remain after photochemical degradation of the matrix, and we show that it takes the worst case combinations of weathering plus high-shear wear to release free CNTs in the order of mg/m 2 /year. Synergy of chemical degradation and mechanical energy input is identified as the priority scenario of CNT release, but its lab simulation by combined methods is still far from real-world validation.

Assessing Seismic Hazards - Algorithms, Maps, and Emergency Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferriz, H.

2007-05-01

Public officials in charge of building codes, land use planning, and emergency response need sound estimates of seismic hazards. Sources may be well defined (e.g., active faults that have a surface trace) or diffuse (e.g., a subduction zone or a blind-thrust belt), but in both cases one can use a deterministic or worst-case scenario approach. For each scenario, a design earthquake is selected based on historic data or the known length of Holocene ruptures (as determined by geologic mapping). Horizontal ground accelerations (HGAs) can then be estimated at different distances from the earthquake epicenter using published attenuation relations (e.g., Seismological Res. Letters, v. 68, 1997) and estimates of the elastic properties of the substrate materials. No good algorithms are available to take into account reflection of elastic waves across other fault planes (e.g., a common effect in California, where there are many strands of the San Andreas fault), or amplification of waves in water-saturated alluvial and lacustrine basins (e.g., the Mexico City basin), but empirical relations can be developed by correlating historic damage patterns with predicted HGAs. The ultimate result is a map of HGAs. With this map, and with additional data on depth to groundwater and geotechnical properties of local soils, a liquefaction susceptibility map can be prepared, using published algorithms (e.g., J. of Geotech. Geoenv. Eng., v. 127, p. 817-833, 2001; Eng. Geology Practice in N. California, p. 579-594, 2001). Finally, the HGA estimates, digital elevation models, geologic structural data, and geotechnical properties of local geologic units can be used to prepare a slope failure susceptibility map (e.g., Eng. Geology Practice in N. California, p. 77-94, 2001). Seismic hazard maps are used by: (1) Building officials to determine areas of the city where special construction codes have to be implemented, and where existing buildings may need to be retrofitted. (2) Planning officials

Scenario-neutral Food Security Risk Assessment: A livestock Heat Stress Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broman, D.; Rajagopalan, B.; Hopson, T. M.

2015-12-01

Food security risk assessments can provide decision-makers with actionable information to identify critical system limitations, and alternatives to mitigate the impacts of future conditions. The majority of current risk assessments have been scenario-led and results are limited by the scenarios - selected future states of the world's climate system and socioeconomic factors. A generic scenario-neutral framework for food security risk assessments is presented here that uses plausible states of the world without initially assigning likelihoods. Measures of system vulnerabilities are identified and system risk is assessed for these states. This framework has benefited greatly by research in the water and natural resource fields to adapt their planning to provide better risk assessments. To illustrate the utility of this framework we develop a case study using livestock heat stress risk within the pastoral system of West Africa. Heat stress can have a major impact not only on livestock owners, but on the greater food production system, decreasing livestock growth, milk production, and reproduction, and in severe cases, death. A heat stress index calculated from daily weather is used as a vulnerability measure and is computed from historic daily weather data at several locations in the study region. To generate plausible states, a stochastic weather generator is developed to generate synthetic weather sequences at each location, consistent with the seasonal climate. A spatial model of monthly and seasonal heat stress provide projections of current and future livestock heat stress measures across the study region, and can incorporate in seasonal climate and other external covariates. These models, when linked with empirical thresholds of heat stress risk for specific breeds offer decision-makers with actionable information for use in near-term warning systems as well as for future planning. Future assessment can indicate under which states livestock are at greatest risk

ARAMIS project: a comprehensive methodology for the identification of reference accident scenarios in process industries.

PubMed

Delvosalle, Christian; Fievez, Cécile; Pipart, Aurore; Debray, Bruno

2006-03-31

In the frame of the Accidental Risk Assessment Methodology for Industries (ARAMIS) project, this paper aims at presenting the work carried out in the part of the project devoted to the definition of accident scenarios. This topic is a key-point in risk assessment and serves as basis for the whole risk quantification. The first result of the work is the building of a methodology for the identification of major accident hazards (MIMAH), which is carried out with the development of generic fault and event trees based on a typology of equipment and substances. The term "major accidents" must be understood as the worst accidents likely to occur on the equipment, assuming that no safety systems are installed. A second methodology, called methodology for the identification of reference accident scenarios (MIRAS) takes into account the influence of safety systems on both the frequencies and possible consequences of accidents. This methodology leads to identify more realistic accident scenarios. The reference accident scenarios are chosen with the help of a tool called "risk matrix", crossing the frequency and the consequences of accidents. This paper presents both methodologies and an application on an ethylene oxide storage.

Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

DOE PAGES

Ellis, John; Evans, Jason L.; Luo, Feng; ...

2016-02-11

In this article, we study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parametermore » space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses m X ≲ 8TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly-mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.« less

Thinking and Doing the Best Things in the Worst Times.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marty, Martin E.

1994-01-01

Several danger signals reflect our cultural disarray. Schools reflect larger societal breakdown and absence of common culture to support learning, discourse, conversation, or argument. In the "worst times," best educators preserve whatever transcends mere relativism, promote whatever survives of subcommunities that generate character,…

57. Aerial view looking northwest; Botany Worsted Mills at center, ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

57. Aerial view looking northwest; Botany Worsted Mills at center, Dundee Canal at right - Dundee Canal Industrial Historic District, Beginning at George Street in Passaic & extending north along Dundee Canal approximately 1.2 miles to Canal headgates opposite East Clifton Avenue in Clifton, Passaic, Passaic County, NJ

Saving Time, Saving Money: The Economics of Unclogging America's Worst Bottlenecks

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-01-01

A 1999 study by the American Highway Users Alliance entitled "Unclogging America's Arteries: Prescriptions for Healthier Highways" identified the 166 worst bottlenecks in the country and evaluated the benefits of removing them. By assigning monetary ...

Managing risk in a challenging financial environment.

PubMed

Kaufman, Kenneth

2008-08-01

Five strategies can help hospital financial leaders balance their organizations' financial and risk positions: Understand the hospital's financial condition; Determine the desired level of risk; Consider total risk; Use a portfolio approach; Explore best-case/worst-case scenarios to measure risk.

Scenario-based tsunami risk assessment using a static flooding approach and high-resolution digital elevation data: An example from Muscat in Oman

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Bastian; Hoffmann, Gösta; Reicherter, Klaus

2016-04-01

Knowledge of tsunami risk and vulnerability is essential to establish a well-adapted Multi Hazard Early Warning System, land-use planning and emergency management. As the tsunami risk for the coastline of Oman is still under discussion and remains enigmatic, various scenarios based on historical tsunamis were created. The suggested inundation and run-up heights were projected onto the modern infrastructural setting of the Muscat Capital Area. Furthermore, possible impacts of the worst-case tsunami event for Muscat are discussed. The approved Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment Model was used to model the structural vulnerability of the infrastructure for a 2 m tsunami scenario, depicting the 1945 tsunami and a 5 m tsunami in Muscat. Considering structural vulnerability, the results suggest a minor tsunami risk for the 2 m tsunami scenario as the flooding is mainly confined to beaches and wadis. Especially traditional brick buildings, still predominant in numerous rural suburbs, and a prevalently coast-parallel road network lead to an increased tsunami risk. In contrast, the 5 m tsunami scenario reveals extensively inundated areas and with up to 48% of the buildings flooded, and therefore consequently a significantly higher tsunami risk. We expect up to 60000 damaged buildings and up to 380000 residents directly affected in the Muscat Capital Area, accompanied with a significant loss of life and damage to vital infrastructure. The rapid urbanization processes in the Muscat Capital Area, predominantly in areas along the coast, in combination with infrastructural, demographic and economic growth will additionally increase the tsunami risk and therefore emphasizes the importance of tsunami risk assessment in Oman.

Hypothetical Case and Scenario Description for International Transportation of Spent Nuclear Fuel.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, Adam David; Osborn, Douglas; Jones, Katherine A.

To support more rigorous analysis on global security issues at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), there is a need to develop realistic data sets without using "real" data or identifying "real" vulnerabilities, hazards or geopolitically embarrassing shortcomings. In response, an interdisciplinary team led by subject matter experts in SNL's Center for Global Security and Cooperation (CGSC) developed a hypothetical case description. This hypothetical case description assigns various attributes related to international SNF transportation that are representative, illustrative and indicative of "real" characteristics of "real" countries. There is no intent to identify any particular country and any similarity with specific real-world eventsmore » is purely coincidental. To support the goal of this report to provide a case description (and set of scenarios of concern) for international SNF transportation inclusive of as much "real-world" complexity as possible -- without crossing over into politically sensitive or classified information -- this SAND report provides a subject matter expert-validated (and detailed) description of both technical and political influences on the international transportation of spent nuclear fuel. [PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK]« less

28. View looking north; Botany Worsted Mills building No. 15 ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

28. View looking north; Botany Worsted Mills building No. 15 at left, Dundee Canal at right - Dundee Canal Industrial Historic District, Beginning at George Street in Passaic & extending north along Dundee Canal approximately 1.2 miles to Canal headgates opposite East Clifton Avenue in Clifton, Passaic, Passaic County, NJ

36. View of Botany Worsted Mills looking north; building No. ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

36. View of Botany Worsted Mills looking north; building No. 35 at left, Dundee Canal at right - Dundee Canal Industrial Historic District, Beginning at George Street in Passaic & extending north along Dundee Canal approximately 1.2 miles to Canal headgates opposite East Clifton Avenue in Clifton, Passaic, Passaic County, NJ

Vulnerability and impact assessment of extreme climatic event: A case study of southern Punjab, Pakistan.

PubMed

Aslam, Abdul Qayyum; Ahmad, Sajid R; Ahmad, Iftikhar; Hussain, Yawar; Hussain, Muhammad Sameem

2017-02-15

Understanding of frequency, severity, damages and adaptation costs of climate extremes is crucial to manage their aftermath. Evaluation of PRECIS RCM modelled data under IPCC scenarios in Southern Punjab reveals that monthly mean temperature is 30°C under A2 scenario, 2.4°C higher than A1B which is 27.6°C in defined time lapses. Monthly mean precipitation under A2 scenario ranges from 12 to 15mm and for A1B scenario it ranges from 15 to 19mm. Frequency modelling of floods and droughts via poisson distribution shows increasing trend in upcoming decades posing serious impacts on agriculture and livestock, food security, water resources, public health and economic status. Cumulative loss projected for frequent floods without adaptation will be in the range of USD 66.8-79.3 billion in time lapse of 40years from 2010 base case. Drought damage function @ 18% for A2 scenario and @ 13.5% for A1B scenario was calculated; drought losses on agriculture and livestock sectors were modelled. Cumulative loss projected for frequent droughts without adaptation under A2 scenario will be in the range of USD 7.5-8.5 billion while under A1B scenario it will be in the range of USD 3.5-4.2 billion for time lapse of 60years from base case 1998-2002. Severity analysis of extreme events shows that situation get worse if adaptations are not only included in the policy but also in the integrated development framework with required allocation of funds. This evaluation also highlights the result of cost benefit analysis, benefits of the adaptation options (mean & worst case) for floods and droughts in Southern Punjab. Additionally the research highlights the role of integrated extreme events impact assessment methodology in performing the vulnerability assessments and to support the adaptation decisions. This paper is an effort to highlight importance of bottom up approaches to deal with climate change. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

SERENITY in e-Business and Smart Item Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benameur, Azzedine; Khoury, Paul El; Seguran, Magali; Sinha, Smriti Kumar

SERENITY Artefacts, like Class, Patterns, Implementations and Executable Components for Security & Dependability (S&D) in addition to Serenity Runtime Framework (SRF) are discussed in previous chapters. How to integrate these artefacts with applications in Serenity approach is discussed here with two scenarios. The e-Business scenario is a standard loan origination process in a bank. The Smart Item scenario is an Ambient intelligence case study where we take advantage of Smart Items to provide an electronic healthcare infrastructure for remote healthcare assistance. In both cases, we detail how the prototype implementations of the scenarios select proper executable components through Serenity Runtime Framework and then demonstrate how these executable components of the S&D Patterns are deployed.

39. View of Botany Worsted Mills looking southeast; buildings No. ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

39. View of Botany Worsted Mills looking southeast; buildings No. 39 and 38 at right, Dundee Canal at left - Dundee Canal Industrial Historic District, Beginning at George Street in Passaic & extending north along Dundee Canal approximately 1.2 miles to Canal headgates opposite East Clifton Avenue in Clifton, Passaic, Passaic County, NJ

38. View looking west toward Botany Worsted Mills; railroad bridge ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

38. View looking west toward Botany Worsted Mills; railroad bridge (No.39A) at right, Dundee Canal at center - Dundee Canal Industrial Historic District, Beginning at George Street in Passaic & extending north along Dundee Canal approximately 1.2 miles to Canal headgates opposite East Clifton Avenue in Clifton, Passaic, Passaic County, NJ

37. View of Botany Worsted Mills looking north; buildings No. ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

37. View of Botany Worsted Mills looking north; buildings No. 38 and 39 at left, Dundee Canal at right - Dundee Canal Industrial Historic District, Beginning at George Street in Passaic & extending north along Dundee Canal approximately 1.2 miles to Canal headgates opposite East Clifton Avenue in Clifton, Passaic, Passaic County, NJ

40. View of Botany Worsted Mills looking southeast; building No. ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

40. View of Botany Worsted Mills looking southeast; building No. 39 at right, building No. 38 behind, Dundee Canal at left - Dundee Canal Industrial Historic District, Beginning at George Street in Passaic & extending north along Dundee Canal approximately 1.2 miles to Canal headgates opposite East Clifton Avenue in Clifton, Passaic, Passaic County, NJ

29. View looking north; Botany Worsted Mills building No. 13 ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

29. View looking north; Botany Worsted Mills building No. 13 at left and building No. 14 rising behind, Dundee Canal at right - Dundee Canal Industrial Historic District, Beginning at George Street in Passaic & extending north along Dundee Canal approximately 1.2 miles to Canal headgates opposite East Clifton Avenue in Clifton, Passaic, Passaic County, NJ

Accident epidemiology and the U.S. chemical industry: accident history and worst-case data from RMP*Info.

PubMed

Kleindorfer, Paul R; Belke, James C; Elliott, Michael R; Lee, Kiwan; Lowe, Robert A; Feldman, Harold I

2003-10-01

This article reports on the data collected on one of the most ambitious government-sponsored environmental data acquisition projects of all time, the Risk Management Plan (RMP) data collected under section 112(r) of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990. This RMP Rule 112(r) was triggered by the Bhopal accident in 1984 and led to the requirement that each qualifying facility develop and file with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency a Risk Management Plan (RMP) as well as accident history data for the five-year period preceding the filing of the RMP. These data were collected in 1999-2001 on more than 15,000 facilities in the United States that store or use listed toxic or flammable chemicals believed to be a hazard to the environment or to human health of facility employees or off-site residents of host communities. The resulting database, RMP*Info, has become a key resource for regulators and researchers concerned with the frequency and severity of accidents, and the underlying facility-specific factors that are statistically associated with accident and injury rates. This article analyzes which facilities actually filed under the Rule and presents results on accident frequencies and severities available from the RMP*Info database. This article also presents summaries of related results from RMP*Info on Offsite Consequence Analysis (OCA), an analytical estimate of the potential consequences of hypothetical worst-case and alternative accidental releases on the public and environment around the facility. The OCA data have become a key input in the evaluation of site security assessment and mitigation policies for both government planners as well as facility managers and their insurers. Following the survey of the RMP*Info data, we discuss the rich set of policy decisions that may be informed by research based on these data.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Strauss, Henry

This research was mostly concerned with asymmetric vertical displacement event (AVDE) disruptions, which are the worst case scenario for producing a large asymmetric wall force. This is potentially a serious problem in ITER.

48. View of Botany Worsted Mills looking east; building No. ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

48. View of Botany Worsted Mills looking east; building No. 23 at left, building No. 17 at right, building No. 26 in center distance - Dundee Canal Industrial Historic District, Beginning at George Street in Passaic & extending north along Dundee Canal approximately 1.2 miles to Canal headgates opposite East Clifton Avenue in Clifton, Passaic, Passaic County, NJ

35. View of Botany Worsted Mills looking east; building No. ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

35. View of Botany Worsted Mills looking east; building No. 24 at left, building No. 35 across center, Dundee Canal and pipe in foreground - Dundee Canal Industrial Historic District, Beginning at George Street in Passaic & extending north along Dundee Canal approximately 1.2 miles to Canal headgates opposite East Clifton Avenue in Clifton, Passaic, Passaic County, NJ

34. View of Botany Worsted Mills looking north; building No. ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

34. View of Botany Worsted Mills looking north; building No. 14 at left, building No. 18 at left background, Dundee Canal at right - Dundee Canal Industrial Historic District, Beginning at George Street in Passaic & extending north along Dundee Canal approximately 1.2 miles to Canal headgates opposite East Clifton Avenue in Clifton, Passaic, Passaic County, NJ

33. View of Botany Worsted Mills looking northwest; footbridge (No. ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

33. View of Botany Worsted Mills looking northwest; footbridge (No. 14A) at center, building No. 18 at left center, Dundee Canal in foreground - Dundee Canal Industrial Historic District, Beginning at George Street in Passaic & extending north along Dundee Canal approximately 1.2 miles to Canal headgates opposite East Clifton Avenue in Clifton, Passaic, Passaic County, NJ

58. Aerial view looking east; Botany Worsted Mills at front, ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

58. Aerial view looking east; Botany Worsted Mills at front, Andrew McLean Company Textile Mill at upper right, Passaic River at rear - Dundee Canal Industrial Historic District, Beginning at George Street in Passaic & extending north along Dundee Canal approximately 1.2 miles to Canal headgates opposite East Clifton Avenue in Clifton, Passaic, Passaic County, NJ

42. View of Botany Worsted Mills looking northeast along Sherman ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

42. View of Botany Worsted Mills looking northeast along Sherman Street; site of 95-97 Dayton Avenue in right distance, at end of Sherman Street - Dundee Canal Industrial Historic District, Beginning at George Street in Passaic & extending north along Dundee Canal approximately 1.2 miles to Canal headgates opposite East Clifton Avenue in Clifton, Passaic, Passaic County, NJ

27. View looking east; Botany Worsted Mills building No. 13 ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

27. View looking east; Botany Worsted Mills building No. 13 at left, Dundee Canal at center, Andrew McLean Company Textile Mill at right - Dundee Canal Industrial Historic District, Beginning at George Street in Passaic & extending north along Dundee Canal approximately 1.2 miles to Canal headgates opposite East Clifton Avenue in Clifton, Passaic, Passaic County, NJ

32. View looking south; Botany Worsted Mills building No. 15 ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

32. View looking south; Botany Worsted Mills building No. 15 at right, Dundee Canal at center, Andrew McLean Company Textile Mill at left - Dundee Canal Industrial Historic District, Beginning at George Street in Passaic & extending north along Dundee Canal approximately 1.2 miles to Canal headgates opposite East Clifton Avenue in Clifton, Passaic, Passaic County, NJ

46. View of Botany Worsted Mills looking northeast; building No. ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

46. View of Botany Worsted Mills looking northeast; building No. 68-69 at left, Mattimore Street houses (No. 66-67 through No. 54-55) at right - Dundee Canal Industrial Historic District, Beginning at George Street in Passaic & extending north along Dundee Canal approximately 1.2 miles to Canal headgates opposite East Clifton Avenue in Clifton, Passaic, Passaic County, NJ

49. View of Botany Worsted Mills looking southeast; building No. ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

49. View of Botany Worsted Mills looking southeast; building No. 26 at left, building No. 18 at center, addition to building No. 17 at right foreground - Dundee Canal Industrial Historic District, Beginning at George Street in Passaic & extending north along Dundee Canal approximately 1.2 miles to Canal headgates opposite East Clifton Avenue in Clifton, Passaic, Passaic County, NJ

Topical Backgrounder: Evaluating Chemical Hazards in the Community: Using RMP's Offsite Consequence Analysis

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Part of a May 1999 series on the Risk Management Program Rule and issues related to chemical emergency management. Explains hazard versus risk, worst-case and alternative release scenarios, flammable endpoints and toxic endpoints.

Great Plains Project: at worst a $1. 7 billion squeeze

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maize, K.

1983-04-11

On January 29, 1982, seeking a loan guarantee for its coal-to-gas synfuels project, Great Plains Gasification Associates told the Department of Energy that they expected to reap $1.2 billion in net income to the partnership during the first 10 years of the venture. On March 31, 1983, Great Plains treasurer Rodney Boulanger had a different projection: a horrific loss of $773 million in the first decade. The Great Plains project, with construction 50% complete, is being built near Beulah, ND. The project has a design capacity of 137.5 million cubic feet a day of SNG. Great Plains' analysis assumes thatmore » the plant will operate at 70% of design capacity in 1985, 77% in 1986, 84% in 1987 and 91% thereafter. The company projects the total project cost at $2.1 billion, consisting of plant costs of $1.9 billion and coal mine costs of $156 million. In originally projecting a cumulative net income of better than $1 billion, the partners anticipated running losses in only three of the first 10 years, and cash distributions from the project of $893 million during the first decade. Under the new projections, even in the best case, the first four years would show losses and there would be no distribution to the partners. In the worst case, the project would run in the red every year for the first 10 years.« less

Stochastic Robust Mathematical Programming Model for Power System Optimization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Cong; Changhyeok, Lee; Haoyong, Chen

2016-01-01

This paper presents a stochastic robust framework for two-stage power system optimization problems with uncertainty. The model optimizes the probabilistic expectation of different worst-case scenarios with ifferent uncertainty sets. A case study of unit commitment shows the effectiveness of the proposed model and algorithms.

Environmental performance of construction waste: Comparing three scenarios from a case study in Catalonia, Spain.

PubMed

Ortiz, O; Pasqualino, J C; Castells, F

2010-04-01

The main objective of this paper is to evaluate environmental impacts of construction wastes in terms of the LIFE 98 ENV/E/351 project. Construction wastes are classified in accordance with the Life Program Environment Directive of the European Commission. Three different scenarios to current waste management from a case study in Catalonia (Spain) have been compared: landfilling, recycling and incineration, and these scenarios were evaluated by means of Life Cycle Assessment. The recommendations of the Catalan Waste Catalogue and the European Waste Catalogue have been taken into account. Also, the influence of transport has been evaluated. Results show that in terms of the Global Warming Potential, the most environmentally friendly treatment was recycling, followed by incineration and lastly landfilling. According to the influence of treatment plants location on the GWP indicator, we observe that incineration and recycling of construction wastes are better than landfilling, even for long distances from the building site to the plants. This is true for most wastes except for the stony types, than should be recycled close to the building site. In summary, data from construction waste of a Catalan case study was evaluated using the well established method of LCA to determine the environmental impacts. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Environmental performance of construction waste: Comparing three scenarios from a case study in Catalonia, Spain

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ortiz, O., E-mail: oscarortiz@unipamplona.edu.c; University of Pamplona, Department of Industrial Engineering, Km 1 Via Bucaramanga, Pamplona, N de S; Pasqualino, J.C.

2010-04-15

The main objective of this paper is to evaluate environmental impacts of construction wastes in terms of the LIFE 98 ENV/E/351 project. Construction wastes are classified in accordance with the Life Program Environment Directive of the European Commission. Three different scenarios to current waste management from a case study in Catalonia (Spain) have been compared: landfilling, recycling and incineration, and these scenarios were evaluated by means of Life Cycle Assessment. The recommendations of the Catalan Waste Catalogue and the European Waste Catalogue have been taken into account. Also, the influence of transport has been evaluated. Results show that in termsmore » of the Global Warming Potential, the most environmentally friendly treatment was recycling, followed by incineration and lastly landfilling. According to the influence of treatment plants location on the GWP indicator, we observe that incineration and recycling of construction wastes are better than landfilling, even for long distances from the building site to the plants. This is true for most wastes except for the stony types, than should be recycled close to the building site. In summary, data from construction waste of a Catalan case study was evaluated using the well established method of LCA to determine the environmental impacts.« less

An Integrated Scenario Ensemble-Based Framework for Hurricane Evacuation Modeling: Part 2-Hazard Modeling.

PubMed

Blanton, Brian; Dresback, Kendra; Colle, Brian; Kolar, Randy; Vergara, Humberto; Hong, Yang; Leonardo, Nicholas; Davidson, Rachel; Nozick, Linda; Wachtendorf, Tricia

2018-04-25

Hurricane track and intensity can change rapidly in unexpected ways, thus making predictions of hurricanes and related hazards uncertain. This inherent uncertainty often translates into suboptimal decision-making outcomes, such as unnecessary evacuation. Representing this uncertainty is thus critical in evacuation planning and related activities. We describe a physics-based hazard modeling approach that (1) dynamically accounts for the physical interactions among hazard components and (2) captures hurricane evolution uncertainty using an ensemble method. This loosely coupled model system provides a framework for probabilistic water inundation and wind speed levels for a new, risk-based approach to evacuation modeling, described in a companion article in this issue. It combines the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model, the Coupled Routing and Excess STorage (CREST) hydrologic model, and the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) storm surge, tide, and wind-wave model to compute inundation levels and wind speeds for an ensemble of hurricane predictions. Perturbations to WRF's initial and boundary conditions and different model physics/parameterizations generate an ensemble of storm solutions, which are then used to drive the coupled hydrologic + hydrodynamic models. Hurricane Isabel (2003) is used as a case study to illustrate the ensemble-based approach. The inundation, river runoff, and wind hazard results are strongly dependent on the accuracy of the mesoscale meteorological simulations, which improves with decreasing lead time to hurricane landfall. The ensemble envelope brackets the observed behavior while providing "best-case" and "worst-case" scenarios for the subsequent risk-based evacuation model. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

41. View of Botany Worsted Mills looking southeast from site ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

41. View of Botany Worsted Mills looking southeast from site of former Forstmann and Huffman textile mill; water tank (No. 43A) at center, Dundee Canal to left - Dundee Canal Industrial Historic District, Beginning at George Street in Passaic & extending north along Dundee Canal approximately 1.2 miles to Canal headgates opposite East Clifton Avenue in Clifton, Passaic, Passaic County, NJ

45. View of Botany Worsted Mills looking east; building No. ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

45. View of Botany Worsted Mills looking east; building No. 4 at left, building No. 68-69 at right, chimney of Andrew McLean Company Textile Mill at center distance - Dundee Canal Industrial Historic District, Beginning at George Street in Passaic & extending north along Dundee Canal approximately 1.2 miles to Canal headgates opposite East Clifton Avenue in Clifton, Passaic, Passaic County, NJ

51. View of Botany Worsted Mills looking east; building No. ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

51. View of Botany Worsted Mills looking east; building No. 43 at left, building No. 41 at center, building No. 40 at right, building No. 31 rising at right background - Dundee Canal Industrial Historic District, Beginning at George Street in Passaic & extending north along Dundee Canal approximately 1.2 miles to Canal headgates opposite East Clifton Avenue in Clifton, Passaic, Passaic County, NJ

50. View of Botany Worsted Mills looking northwest; building No. ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

50. View of Botany Worsted Mills looking northwest; building No. 43 at left center, building No. 42 at right center, water tank (No. 43A) at right - Dundee Canal Industrial Historic District, Beginning at George Street in Passaic & extending north along Dundee Canal approximately 1.2 miles to Canal headgates opposite East Clifton Avenue in Clifton, Passaic, Passaic County, NJ

Scenarios and decisionmaking for complex environmental systems

Treesearch

Stephen R. Carpenter; Adena R. Rissman

2012-01-01

Scenarios are used for expanding the scope of imaginable outcomes considered by assessments, planning exercises, or research projects on social-ecological systems. We discuss a global case study, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, and a regional project for an urbanizing agricultural watershed. Qualitative and quantitative aspects of scenarios are complementary....

Base-Case 1% Yield Increase (BC1), All Energy Crops scenario of the 2016 Billion Ton Report

DOE Data Explorer

Davis, Maggie R. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000181319328); Hellwinkel, Chad [University of Tennessee] (ORCID:0000000173085058); Eaton, Laurence [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000312709626); Langholtz, Matthew H. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000281537154); Turhollow, Anthony [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000228159350); Brandt, Craig [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000214707379); Myers, Aaron (ORCID:0000000320373827)

2016-07-13

Scientific reason for data generation: to serve as the base-case scenario for the BT16 volume 1 agricultural scenarios to compare these projections of potential biomass supplies against a reference case (agricultural baseline 10.11578/1337885). The simulation runs from 2015 through 2040; a starting year of 2014 is used but not reported. How each parameter was produced (methods), format, and relationship to other data in the data set: This exogenous price simulations (also referred to as “specified-price” simulations) introduces a farmgate price, and POLYSYS solves for biomass supplies that may be brought to market in response to these prices. In specified-price scenarios, a specified farmgate price is offered constantly in all counties over all years of the simulation. This simulation begins in 2015 with an offered farmgate price for primary crop residues only between 2015 and 2018 and long-term contracts for dedicated crops beginning in 2019. Expected mature energy crop yield grows at a compounding rate of 1% beginning in 2016. The yield growth assumptions are fixed after crops are planted such that yield gains do not apply to crops already planted, but new plantings do take advantage of the gains in expected yield growth. Instruments used: Policy Analysis System –POLYSYS (version POLYS2015_V10_alt_JAN22B), an agricultural policy modeling system of U.S. agriculture (crops and livestock), supplied by the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture, Agricultural Policy Analysis Center.

Ethoprophos fate on soil-water interface and effects on non-target terrestrial and aquatic biota under Mediterranean crop-based scenarios.

PubMed

Leitão, Sara; Moreira-Santos, Matilde; Van den Brink, Paul J; Ribeiro, Rui; José Cerejeira, M; Sousa, José Paulo

2014-05-01

The present study aimed to assess the environmental fate of the insecticide and nematicide ethoprophos in the soil-water interface following the pesticide application in simulated maize and potato crops under Mediterranean agricultural conditions, particularly of irrigation. Focus was given to the soil-water transfer pathways (leaching and runoff), to the pesticide transport in soil between pesticide application (crop row) and non-application areas (between crop rows), as well as to toxic effects of the various matrices on terrestrial and aquatic biota. A semi-field methodology mimicking a "worst-case" ethoprophos application (twice the recommended dosage for maize and potato crops: 100% concentration v/v) in agricultural field situations was used, in order to mimic a possible misuse by the farmer under realistic conditions. A rainfall was simulated under a slope of 20° for both crop-based scenarios. Soil and water samples were collected for the analysis of pesticide residues. Ecotoxicity of soil and aquatic samples was assessed by performing lethal and sublethal bioassays with organisms from different trophic levels: the collembolan Folsomia candida, the earthworm Eisenia andrei and the cladoceran Daphnia magna. Although the majority of ethoprophos sorbed to the soil application area, pesticide concentrations were detected in all water matrices illustrating pesticide transfer pathways of water contamination between environmental compartments. Leaching to groundwater proved to be an important transfer pathway of ethoprophos under both crop-based scenarios, as it resulted in high pesticide concentration in leachates from Maize (130µgL(-1)) and Potato (630µgL(-1)) crop scenarios, respectively. Ethoprophos application at the Potato crop scenario caused more toxic effects on terrestrial and aquatic biota than at the Maize scenario at the recommended dosage and lower concentrations. In both crop-based scenarios, ethoprophos moved with the irrigation water flow to the

Assessment of the Incentives Created by Public Disclosure of Off-Site Consequence Analysis Information for Reduction in the Risk of Accidental Releases

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The off-site consequence analysis (OCA) evaluates the potential for worst-case and alternative accidental release scenarios to harm the public and environment around the facility. Public disclosure would likely reduce the number/severity of incidents.

Treatment of hypogonadotropic male hypogonadism: Case-based scenarios

PubMed Central

Crosnoe-Shipley, Lindsey E; Elkelany, Osama O; Rahnema, Cyrus D; Kim, Edward D

2015-01-01

The aim of this study is to review four case-based scenarios regarding the treatment of symptomatic hypogonadism in men. The article is designed as a review of published literature. We conducted a PubMed literature search for the time period of 1989-2014, concentrating on 26 studies investigating the efficacy of various therapeutic options on semen analysis, pregnancy outcomes, time to recovery of spermatogenesis, as well as serum and intratesticular testosterone levels. Our results demonstrated that exogenous testosterone suppresses intratesticular testosterone production, which is an absolute prerequisite for normal spermatogenesis. Cessation of exogenous testosterone should be recommended for men desiring to maintain their fertility. Therapies that protect the testis involve human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) therapy or selective estrogen receptor modulators (SERMs), but may also include low dose hCG with exogenous testosterone. Off-label use of SERMs, such as clomiphene citrate, are effective for maintaining testosterone production long-term and offer the convenience of representing a safe, oral therapy. At present, routine use of aromatase inhibitors is not recommended based on a lack of long-term data. We concluded that exogenous testosterone supplementation decreases sperm production. It was determined that clomiphene citrate is a safe and effective therapy for men who desire to maintain fertility. Although less frequently used in the general population, hCG therapy with or without testosterone supplementation represents an alternative treatment. PMID:25949938

Urban Growth Scenarios of a Future MEGA City: Case Study Ahmedabad

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehner, A.; Kraus, V.; Steinnocher, K.

2016-06-01

The study of urban areas and their development focuses on cities, their physical and demographic expansion and the tensions and impacts that go along with urban growth. Especially in developing countries and emerging national economies like India, consistent and up to date information or other planning relevant data all too often is not available. With its Smart Cities Mission, the Indian government places great importance on the future developments of Indian urban areas and pays tribute to the large-scale rural to urban migration. The potentials of urban remote sensing and its contribution to urban planning are discussed and related to the Indian Smart Cities Mission. A case study is presented showing urban remote sensing based information products for the city of Ahmedabad. Resulting urban growth scenarios are presented, hotspots identified and future action alternatives proposed.

Assessment of the water supply:demand ratios in a Mediterranean basin under different global change scenarios and mitigation alternatives.

PubMed

Boithias, Laurie; Acuña, Vicenç; Vergoñós, Laura; Ziv, Guy; Marcé, Rafael; Sabater, Sergi

2014-02-01

Spatial differences in the supply and demand of ecosystem services such as water provisioning often imply that the demand for ecosystem services cannot be fulfilled at the local scale, but it can be fulfilled at larger scales (regional, continental). Differences in the supply:demand (S:D) ratio for a given service result in different values, and these differences might be assessed with monetary or non-monetary metrics. Water scarcity occurs where and when water resources are not enough to meet all the demands, and this affects equally the service of water provisioning and the ecosystem needs. In this study we assess the value of water in a Mediterranean basin under different global change (i.e. both climate and anthropogenic changes) and mitigation scenarios, with a non-monetary metric: the S:D ratio. We computed water balances across the Ebro basin (North-East Spain) with the spatially explicit InVEST model. We highlight the spatial and temporal mismatches existing across a single hydrological basin regarding water provisioning and its consumption, considering or not, the environmental demand (environmental flow). The study shows that water scarcity is commonly a local issue (sub-basin to region), but that all demands are met at the largest considered spatial scale (basin). This was not the case in the worst-case scenario (increasing demands and decreasing supply), as the S:D ratio at the basin scale was near 1, indicating that serious problems of water scarcity might occur in the near future even at the basin scale. The analysis of possible mitigation scenarios reveals that the impact of global change may be counteracted by the decrease of irrigated areas. Furthermore, the comparison between a non-monetary (S:D ratio) and a monetary (water price) valuation metrics reveals that the S:D ratio provides similar values and might be therefore used as a spatially explicit metric to valuate the ecosystem service water provisioning. © 2013.

General RMP Guidance - Chapter 4: Offsite Consequence Analysis

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This chapter provides basic compliance information, not modeling methodologies, for people who plan to do their own air dispersion modeling. OCA is a required part of the risk management program, and involves worst-case and alternative release scenarios.

47. View of Botany Worsted Mills looking east; building No. ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

47. View of Botany Worsted Mills looking east; building No. 16 at left, chimney (No. 17A) at left center, building No. 18 behind, building No. 7 at right center, building No. 1 at right - Dundee Canal Industrial Historic District, Beginning at George Street in Passaic & extending north along Dundee Canal approximately 1.2 miles to Canal headgates opposite East Clifton Avenue in Clifton, Passaic, Passaic County, NJ

Analysis of Future Streamflow Regimes under Global Change Scenarios in Central Chile for Ecosystem Sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henriquez Dole, L. E.; Gironas, J. A.; Vicuna, S.

2015-12-01

Given the critical role of the streamflow regime for ecosystem sustainability, modeling long term effects of climate change and land use change on streamflow is important to predict possible impacts in stream ecosystems. Because flow duration curves are largely used to characterize the streamflow regime and define indices of ecosystem health, they were used to represent and analyze in this study the stream regime in the Maipo River Basin in Central Chile. Water and Environmental Assessment and Planning (WEAP) model and the Plant Growth Model (PGM) were used to simulate water distribution, consumption in rural areas and stream flows on a weekly basis. Historical data (1990-2014), future land use scenarios (2030/2050) and climate change scenarios were included in the process. Historical data show a declining trend in flows mainly by unprecedented climatic conditions, increasing interest among users on future streamflow scenarios. In the future, under an expected decline in water availability coupled with changes in crop water demand, water users will be forced to adapt by changing water allocation rules. Such adaptation actions would in turns affect the streamflow regime. Future scenarios for streamflow regime show dramatic changes in water availability and temporal distribution. Annual weekly mean flows can reduce in 19% in the worst scenario and increase in 3.3% in the best of them, and variability in streamflow increases nearly 90% in all scenarios under evaluation. The occurrence of maximum and minimum monthly flows changes, as June instead of July becomes the driest month, and December instead of January becomes the month with maximum flows. Overall, results show that under future scenarios streamflow is affected and altered by water allocation rules to satisfy water demands, and thus decisions will need to consider the streamflow regime (and habitat) in order to be sustainable.

Climate Change Scenarios in the Yucatan Peninsula to the year 2020

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orellana, R.; Espadas, C.; Conde, C.; Gay, C.

2010-03-01

A topic that has not been sufficiently analyzed is that the global warming is already affecting, and that it will have worst consequences in those regions with transitional climates, which have more sensibility to changes. This is the case of the Yucatan Peninsula which is semi-arid in their northern portion, and toward the south is subhumid, with a tendency to be more rainy toward the south. To have an estimation of what could happen in the future, the Intergovernmental Panel of Climatic Change (IPCC) has promoted the use of General Circulation Models (GCM), as well as the construction of possible emission scenarios that integrate different global and regional socioeconomic and demographic conditions, which project then a possible increase of emissions of greenhouse gases. These conditions are recognized as the decisive forces that will determine the variations of temperature and of precipitation. These projections are useful for the analysis of climatic change, and in particular for the assessments of the possible impacts and of the initiatives of adaptation and of mitigation that should be implemented in every country or region. In Mexico, most of those evaluations of climate change have been carried out generally at country level. For that reason, it is necessary to direct the research at regional level. In this work, we evaluated the potential climatic changes on the Yucatan Peninsula, considering the different changes of temperature and precipitation as a consequence for different emission scenarios and for the horizon 2020. To project the environmental responses of the region, we used as a base scenario the available temperature and precipitation information of the period 1961-1990, registered in 85 meteorological stations of the peninsula. With these data, we generated climate change scenarios using the outputs of four General Circulation Models: HADLEY, ECHAM, GFDL and CGCM, and the emission scenarios A1FI, A2, B1 and B2. The outputs of these models were

Tsunami Hazard in La Réunion Island (SW Indian Ocean): Scenario-Based Numerical Modelling on Vulnerable Coastal Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allgeyer, S.; Quentel, É.; Hébert, H.; Gailler, A.; Loevenbruck, A.

2017-08-01

Several major tsunamis have affected the southwest Indian Ocean area since the 2004 Sumatra event, and some of them (2005, 2006, 2007 and 2010) have hit La Réunion Island in the southwest Indian Ocean. However, tsunami hazard is not well defined for La Réunion Island where vulnerable coastlines can be exposed. This study offers a first tsunami hazard assesment for La Réunion Island. We first review the historical tsunami observations made on the coastlines, where high tsunami waves (2-3 m) have been reported on the western coast, especially during the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Numerical models of historical scenarios yield results consistent with available observations on the coastal sites (the harbours of La Pointe des Galets and Saint-Paul). The 1833 Pagai earthquake and tsunami can be considered as the worst-case historical scenario for this area. In a second step, we assess the tsunami exposure by covering the major subduction zones with syntethic events of constant magnitude (8.7, 9.0 and 9.3). The aggregation of magnitude 8.7 scenarios all generate strong currents in the harbours (3-7 m s^{-1}) and about 2 m of tsunami maximum height without significant inundation. The analysis of the magnitude 9.0 events confirms that the main commercial harbour (Port Est) is more vulnerable than Port Ouest and that flooding in Saint-Paul is limited to the beach area and the river mouth. Finally, the magnitude 9.3 scenarios show limited inundations close to the beach and in the riverbed in Saint-Paul. More generally, the results confirm that for La Runion, the Sumatra subduction zone is the most threatening non-local source area for tsunami generation. This study also shows that far-field coastal sites should be prepared for tsunami hazard and that further work is needed to improve operational warning procedures. Forecast methods should be developed to provide tools to enable the authorities to anticipate the local effects of tsunamis and to evacuate the harbours in

Compression in the Superintendent Ranks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Saron, Bradford G.; Birchbauer, Louis J.

2011-01-01

Sadly, the fiscal condition of school systems now not only is troublesome, but in some cases has surpassed all expectations for the worst-case scenario. Among the states, one common response is to drop funding for public education to inadequate levels, leading to permanent program cuts, school closures, staff layoffs, district dissolutions and…

43. View of Botany Worsted Mills looking north along Dayton ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

43. View of Botany Worsted Mills looking north along Dayton Avenue; building No. 1 at right, building No. 53 at center, building No. 19 rising behind; chimney (No. 46A) at center distance, buildings No. 52, 51, and 50 at left - Dundee Canal Industrial Historic District, Beginning at George Street in Passaic & extending north along Dundee Canal approximately 1.2 miles to Canal headgates opposite East Clifton Avenue in Clifton, Passaic, Passaic County, NJ

The use of scenarios for long-range planning by investor-owned electric utilities in the Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyons, John V.

Scenario planning is a method of organizing and understanding large amounts of quantitative and qualitative data for leaders to make better strategic decisions. There is a lack of academic research about scenario planning with a subsequent shortage of definitions and theories. This study utilized a case study methodology to analyze scenario planning by investor-owned electric utilities in the Pacific Northwest in their integrated resource planning (IRP) process. The cases include Avista Corporation, Idaho Power, PacifiCorp, Portland General Electric, and Puget Sound Energy. This study sought to determine how scenario planning was used, what scenario approach was used, the scenario outcomes, and the similarities and differences in the scenario planning processes. The literature review of this study covered the development of scenario planning, common definitions and theories, approaches to scenario development, and scenario outcomes. A research methodology was developed to classify the scenario development approach into intuitive, hybrid, or quantitative approaches; and scenario outcomes of changed thinking, stories of plausible futures, improved decision making, and enhanced organizational learning. The study found all three forms of scenario planning in the IRPs. All of the cases used a similar approach to IRP development. All of the cases had at least improved decision making as an outcome of scenario planning. Only one case demonstrated all four scenario outcomes. A critical finding was a correlation between the use of the intuitive approach and the use of all scenario outcomes. Another major finding was the unique use of predetermined elements, which are normally consistent across scenarios, but became critical uncertainties in some of the scenarios in the cases for this study. This finding will need to be confirmed by future research as unique to the industry or an aberration. An unusually high number of scenarios were found for cases using the hybrid approach

Global climate change: The quantifiable sustainability challenge

EPA Science Inventory

Population growth and the pressures spawned by increasing demands for energy and resource-intensive goods, foods and services are driving unsustainable growth in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Recent GHG emission trends are consistent with worst-case scenarios of the previous de...

Tail mean and related robust solution concepts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogryczak, Włodzimierz

2014-01-01

Robust optimisation might be viewed as a multicriteria optimisation problem where objectives correspond to the scenarios although their probabilities are unknown or imprecise. The simplest robust solution concept represents a conservative approach focused on the worst-case scenario results optimisation. A softer concept allows one to optimise the tail mean thus combining performances under multiple worst scenarios. We show that while considering robust models allowing the probabilities to vary only within given intervals, the tail mean represents the robust solution for only upper bounded probabilities. For any arbitrary intervals of probabilities the corresponding robust solution may be expressed by the optimisation of appropriately combined mean and tail mean criteria thus remaining easily implementable with auxiliary linear inequalities. Moreover, we use the tail mean concept to develope linear programming implementable robust solution concepts related to risk averse optimisation criteria.

Modelling regional climate change and urban planning scenarios and their impacts on the urban environment in two cities with WRF-ACASA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falk, M.; Pyles, R. D.; Marras, S.; Spano, D.; Paw U, K. T.

2011-12-01

The number of urban metabolism studies has increased in recent years, due to the important impact that energy, water and carbon exchange over urban areas have on climate change. Urban modeling is therefore crucial in the future design and management of cities. This study presents the ACASA model coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) mesoscale model to simulate urban fluxes at a horizontal resolution of 200 meters for urban areas of roughly 100 km^2. As part of the European Project "BRIDGE", these regional simulations were used in combination with remotely sensed data to provide constraints on the land surface types and the exchange of carbon and energy fluxes from urban centers. Surface-atmosphere exchanges of mass and energy were simulated using the Advanced Canopy Atmosphere Soil Algorithm (ACASA). ACASA is a multi-layer high-order closure model, recently modified to work over natural, agricultural as well as urban environments. In particular, improvements were made to account for the anthropogenic contribution to heat and carbon production. For two cities four climate change and four urban planning scenarios were simulated: The climate change scenarios include a base scenario (Sc0: 2008 Commit in IPCC), a medium emission scenario (Sc1: IPCC A2), a worst case emission scenario (Sce2: IPCC A1F1) and finally a best case emission scenario (Sce3: IPCC B1). The urban planning scenarios include different development scenarios such as smart growth. The two cities are a high latitude city, Helsinki (Finland) and an historic city, Florence (Italy). Helsinki is characterized by recent, rapid urbanization that requires a substantial amount of energy for heating, while Florence is representative of cities in lower latitudes, with substantial cultural heritage and a comparatively constant architectural footprint over time. In general, simulated fluxes matched the point observations well and showed consistent improvement in the energy partitioning over

Pathology informatics fellowship retreats: The use of interactive scenarios and case studies as pathology informatics teaching tools.

PubMed

Lee, Roy E; McClintock, David S; Balis, Ulysses J; Baron, Jason M; Becich, Michael J; Beckwith, Bruce A; Brodsky, Victor B; Carter, Alexis B; Dighe, Anand S; Haghighi, Mehrvash; Hipp, Jason D; Henricks, Walter H; Kim, Jiyeon Y; Klepseis, Veronica E; Kuo, Frank C; Lane, William J; Levy, Bruce P; Onozato, Maristela L; Park, Seung L; Sinard, John H; Tuthill, Mark J; Gilbertson, John R

2012-01-01

Last year, our pathology informatics fellowship added informatics-based interactive case studies to its existing educational platform of operational and research rotations, clinical conferences, a common core curriculum with an accompanying didactic course, and national meetings. The structure of the informatics case studies was based on the traditional business school case study format. Three different formats were used, varying in length from short, 15-minute scenarios to more formal multiple hour-long case studies. Case studies were presented over the course of three retreats (Fall 2011, Winter 2012, and Spring 2012) and involved both local and visiting faculty and fellows. Both faculty and fellows found the case studies and the retreats educational, valuable, and enjoyable. From this positive feedback, we plan to incorporate the retreats in future academic years as an educational component of our fellowship program. Interactive case studies appear to be valuable in teaching several aspects of pathology informatics that are difficult to teach in more traditional venues (rotations and didactic class sessions). Case studies have become an important component of our fellowship's educational platform.

Most Probable Fire Scenarios in Spacecraft and Extraterrestrial Habitats: Why NASA's Current Test 1 Might Not Always be Conservative

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olson, S. L.

2004-01-01

NASA's current method of material screening determines fire resistance under conditions representing a worst-case for normal gravity flammability - the Upward Flame Propagation Test (Test 1). Its simple pass-fail criteria eliminates materials that burn for more than 12 inches from a standardized ignition source. In addition, if a material drips burning pieces that ignite a flammable fabric below, it fails. The applicability of Test 1 to fires in microgravity and extraterrestrial environments, however, is uncertain because the relationship between this buoyancy-dominated test and actual extraterrestrial fire hazards is not understood. There is compelling evidence that the Test 1 may not be the worst case for spacecraft fires, and we don t have enough information to assess if it is adequate at Lunar or Martian gravity levels.

Most Probable Fire Scenarios in Spacecraft and Extraterrestrial Habitats: Why NASA's Current Test 1 Might Not Always Be Conservative

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olson, S. L.

2004-01-01

NASA s current method of material screening determines fire resistance under conditions representing a worst-case for normal gravity flammability - the Upward Flame Propagation Test (Test 1[1]). Its simple pass-fail criteria eliminates materials that burn for more than 12 inches from a standardized ignition source. In addition, if a material drips burning pieces that ignite a flammable fabric below, it fails. The applicability of Test 1 to fires in microgravity and extraterrestrial environments, however, is uncertain because the relationship between this buoyancy-dominated test and actual extraterrestrial fire hazards is not understood. There is compelling evidence that the Test 1 may not be the worst case for spacecraft fires, and we don t have enough information to assess if it is adequate at Lunar or Martian gravity levels.

Australian Public Preferences for the Funding of New Health Technologies: A Comparison of Discrete Choice and Profile Case Best-Worst Scaling Methods.

PubMed

Whitty, Jennifer A; Ratcliffe, Julie; Chen, Gang; Scuffham, Paul A

2014-07-01

Ethical, economic, political, and legitimacy arguments support the consideration of public preferences in health technology decision making. The objective was to assess public preferences for funding new health technologies and to compare a profile case best-worst scaling (BWS) and traditional discrete choice experiment (DCE) method. An online survey consisting of a DCE and BWS task was completed by 930 adults recruited via an Internet panel. Respondents traded between 7 technology attributes. Participation quotas broadly reflected the population of Queensland, Australia, by gender and age. Choice data were analyzed using a generalized multinomial logit model. The findings from both the BWS and DCE were generally consistent in that respondents exhibited stronger preferences for technologies offering prevention or early diagnosis over other benefit types. Respondents also prioritized technologies that benefit younger people, larger numbers of people, those in rural areas, or indigenous Australians; that provide value for money; that have no available alternative; or that upgrade an existing technology. However, the relative preference weights and consequent preference orderings differed between the DCE and BWS models. Further, poor correlation between the DCE and BWS weights was observed. While only a minority of respondents reported difficulty completing either task (22.2% DCE, 31.9% BWS), the majority (72.6%) preferred the DCE over BWS task. This study provides reassurance that many criteria routinely used for technology decision making are considered to be relevant by the public. The findings clearly indicate the perceived importance of prevention and early diagnosis. The dissimilarity observed between DCE and profile case BWS weights is contrary to the findings of previous comparisons and raises uncertainty regarding the comparative merits of these stated preference methods in a priority-setting context. © The Author(s) 2014.

Severe anaemia associated with Plasmodium falciparum infection in children: consequences for additional blood sampling for research.

PubMed

Kuijpers, Laura Maria Francisca; Maltha, Jessica; Guiraud, Issa; Kaboré, Bérenger; Lompo, Palpouguini; Devlieger, Hugo; Van Geet, Chris; Tinto, Halidou; Jacobs, Jan

2016-06-02

Plasmodium falciparum infection may cause severe anaemia, particularly in children. When planning a diagnostic study on children suspected of severe malaria in sub-Saharan Africa, it was questioned how much blood could be safely sampled; intended blood volumes (blood cultures and EDTA blood) were 6 mL (children aged <6 years) and 10 mL (6-12 years). A previous review [Bull World Health Organ. 89: 46-53. 2011] recommended not to exceed 3.8 % of total blood volume (TBV). In a simulation exercise using data of children previously enrolled in a study about severe malaria and bacteraemia in Burkina Faso, the impact of this 3.8 % safety guideline was evaluated. For a total of 666 children aged >2 months to <12 years, data of age, weight and haemoglobin value (Hb) were available. For each child, the estimated TBV (TBVe) (mL) was calculated by multiplying the body weight (kg) by the factor 80 (ml/kg). Next, TBVe was corrected for the degree of anaemia to obtain the functional TBV (TBVf). The correction factor consisted of the rate 'Hb of the child divided by the reference Hb'; both the lowest ('best case') and highest ('worst case') reference Hb values were used. Next, the exact volume that a 3.8 % proportion of this TBVf would present was calculated and this volume was compared to the blood volumes that were intended to be sampled. When applied to the Burkina Faso cohort, the simulation exercise pointed out that in 5.3 % (best case) and 11.4 % (worst case) of children the blood volume intended to be sampled would exceed the volume as defined by the 3.8 % safety guideline. Highest proportions would be in the age groups 2-6 months (19.0 %; worst scenario) and 6 months-2 years (15.7 %; worst case scenario). A positive rapid diagnostic test for P. falciparum was associated with an increased risk of violating the safety guideline in the worst case scenario (p = 0.016). Blood sampling in children for research in P. falciparum endemic settings may easily violate

44. View of Botany Worsted Mills looking southeast along Dayton ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

44. View of Botany Worsted Mills looking southeast along Dayton Avenue; building No. 2 at left, building No. 4 rising at center, building No. 68-69 at end of avenue; site of 95-97 Dayton Avenue and other former Botany buildings at right - Dundee Canal Industrial Historic District, Beginning at George Street in Passaic & extending north along Dundee Canal approximately 1.2 miles to Canal headgates opposite East Clifton Avenue in Clifton, Passaic, Passaic County, NJ

Building Data and Information Capacity in Environmental Public Health: A Best-Worst Scaling Experiment.

PubMed

Wallar, Lauren E; Sargeant, Jan M; McEwen, Scott A; Mercer, Nicola J; Papadopoulos, Andrew

Environmental public health practitioners rely on information technology (IT) to maintain and improve environmental health. However, current systems have limited capacity. A better understanding of the importance of IT features is needed to enhance data and information capacity. (1) Rank IT features according to the percentage of respondents who rated them as essential to an information management system and (2) quantify the relative importance of a subset of these features using best-worst scaling. Information technology features were initially identified from a previously published systematic review of software evaluation criteria and a list of software options from a private corporation specializing in inspection software. Duplicates and features unrelated to environmental public health were removed. The condensed list was refined by a working group of environmental public health management to a final list of 57 IT features. The essentialness of features was electronically rated by environmental public health managers. Features where 50% to 80% of respondents rated them as essential (n = 26) were subsequently evaluated using best-worst scaling. Ontario, Canada. Environmental public health professionals in local public health. Importance scores of IT features. The majority of IT features (47/57) were considered essential to an information management system by at least half of the respondents (n = 52). The highest-rated features were delivery to printer, software encryption capability, and software maintenance services. Of the 26 features evaluated in the best-worst scaling exercise, the most important features were orientation to all practice areas, off-line capability, and ability to view past inspection reports and results. The development of a single, unified environmental public health information management system that fulfills the reporting and functionality needs of system users is recommended. This system should be implemented by all public health units

Closed Environment Module - Modularization and extension of the Virtual Habitat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plötner, Peter; Czupalla, Markus; Zhukov, Anton

2013-12-01

The Virtual Habitat (V-HAB), is a Life Support System (LSS) simulation, created to perform dynamic simulation of LSS's for future human spaceflight missions. It allows the testing of LSS robustness by means of computer simulations, e.g. of worst case scenarios.

Modeling and Composing Scenario-Based Requirements with Aspects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Araujo, Joao; Whittle, Jon; Ki, Dae-Kyoo

2004-01-01

There has been significant recent interest, within the Aspect-Oriented Software Development (AOSD) community, in representing crosscutting concerns at various stages of the software lifecycle. However, most of these efforts have concentrated on the design and implementation phases. We focus in this paper on representing aspects during use case modeling. In particular, we focus on scenario-based requirements and show how to compose aspectual and non-aspectual scenarios so that they can be simulated as a whole. Non-aspectual scenarios are modeled as UML sequence diagram. Aspectual scenarios are modeled as Interaction Pattern Specifications (IPS). In order to simulate them, the scenarios are transformed into a set of executable state machines using an existing state machine synthesis algorithm. Previous work composed aspectual and non-aspectual scenarios at the sequence diagram level. In this paper, the composition is done at the state machine level.

A stochastic approach for quantifying immigrant integration: the Spanish test case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agliari, Elena; Barra, Adriano; Contucci, Pierluigi; Sandell, Richard; Vernia, Cecilia

2014-10-01

We apply stochastic process theory to the analysis of immigrant integration. Using a unique and detailed data set from Spain, we study the relationship between local immigrant density and two social and two economic immigration quantifiers for the period 1999-2010. As opposed to the classic time-series approach, by letting immigrant density play the role of ‘time’ and the quantifier the role of ‘space,’ it becomes possible to analyse the behavior of the quantifiers by means of continuous time random walks. Two classes of results are then obtained. First, we show that social integration quantifiers evolve following diffusion law, while the evolution of economic quantifiers exhibits ballistic dynamics. Second, we make predictions of best- and worst-case scenarios taking into account large local fluctuations. Our stochastic process approach to integration lends itself to interesting forecasting scenarios which, in the hands of policy makers, have the potential to improve political responses to integration problems. For instance, estimating the standard first-passage time and maximum-span walk reveals local differences in integration performance for different immigration scenarios. Thus, by recognizing the importance of local fluctuations around national means, this research constitutes an important tool to assess the impact of immigration phenomena on municipal budgets and to set up solid multi-ethnic plans at the municipal level as immigration pressures build.

AeroMACS Interference Simulations for Global Airports

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Jeffrey D.; Apaza, Rafael D.

2012-01-01

Ran 18 scenarios with Visualyse Professional interference software (presented 2 most realistic scenarios). Scenario A: 85 large airports can transmit 1650 mW on each of 11 channels. 173 medium airports can transmit 825 mW on each of 6 channels. 5951 small airports can transmit 275 mW on one channel. Reducing power allowed for small airports in Scenario B increases allowable power for large and medium airports, but should not be necessary as Scenario A levels are more than adequate. These power limitations are conservative because we are assuming worst case with 100% duty.

An Alaskan Theater Airlift Model.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-02-19

overt attack on American soil . In any case, such a reaotion represents the worst-case scenario In that theater forces would be denied the advantages of...NNSETNTAFE,SS(l06), USL (100), 7 TNET,THOV,1X(100) REAL A,CHKTIN INTEGER ORIC,DEST,ISCTMP,WXFLG,ALLW,T(RT,ZPTR,ZONE, * FTNFLG.WX,ZONLST(150) DATA ZNSI

Acute Exposure to Worst-Case Concentrations of Amitraz Does Not Affect Honey Bee Learning, Short-Term Memory, or Hemolymph Octopamine Levels.

PubMed

Rix, Rachel R; Christopher Cutler, G

2017-02-01

Amitraz, an acaricide used to treat Varroa destructor Anderson & Trueman, is one of the most commonly detected pesticides in honey bee (Apis mellifera L.) hives. Acaricides sometimes negatively impact honey bee cognition, but potential effects of amitraz on honey bee learning have been rarely studied. We topically exposed foragers to 95th percentile field-relevant levels of amitraz and, 24 h later, tested the ability of bees to associate a sucrose reward with a conditioned odor (learning response) using the proboscis extension response (PER). We then tested the ability of the bees to retain this memory 1 h and 2 h post-conditioning. Because amitraz is thought to affect octopamine metabolism in honey bees, and because octopamine is directly related to honey bee learning and memory, we also examined effects of exposure to amitraz on octopamine levels in honey bee hemolymph. We found that acute exposure to 95th percentile doses of amitraz had no impact on honey bee learning or short-term memory as measured by PER. Concentrations of octopamine in hemolymph from our low amitraz treatment were 1.4-fold higher than control levels, but other treatments had no effect. Our results from worst-case acute exposure experiments with worker bees in the laboratory suggest that typical field-relevant (within hive) exposures to amitraz probably have little effect on honey bee learning and memory. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Best-worst scaling to assess the most important barriers and facilitators for the use of health technology assessment in Austria.

PubMed

Feig, Chiara; Cheung, Kei Long; Hiligsmann, Mickaël; Evers, Silvia M A A; Simon, Judit; Mayer, Susanne

2018-04-01

Although Health Technology Assessment (HTA) is increasingly used to support evidence-based decision-making in health care, several barriers and facilitators for the use of HTA have been identified. This best-worst scaling (BWS) study aims to assess the relative importance of selected barriers and facilitators of the uptake of HTA studies in Austria. A BWS object case survey was conducted among 37 experts in Austria to assess the relative importance of HTA barriers and facilitators. Hierarchical Bayes estimation was applied, with the best-worst count analysis as sensitivity analysis. Subgroup analyses were also performed on professional role and HTA experience. The most important barriers were 'lack of transparency in the decision-making process', 'fragmentation', 'absence of appropriate incentives', 'no explicit framework for decision-making process', and 'insufficient legal support'. The most important facilitators were 'transparency in the decision-making process', 'availability of relevant HTA research for policy makers', 'availability of explicit framework for decision-making process', 'sufficient legal support', and 'appropriate incentives'. This study suggests that HTA barriers and facilitators related to the context of decision makers, especially 'policy characteristics' and 'organization and resources' are the most important in Austria. A transparent and participatory decision-making process could improve the adoption of HTA evidence.

The scenario-based generalization of radiation therapy margins.

PubMed

Fredriksson, Albin; Bokrantz, Rasmus

2016-03-07

We give a scenario-based treatment plan optimization formulation that is equivalent to planning with geometric margins if the scenario doses are calculated using the static dose cloud approximation. If the scenario doses are instead calculated more accurately, then our formulation provides a novel robust planning method that overcomes many of the difficulties associated with previous scenario-based robust planning methods. In particular, our method protects only against uncertainties that can occur in practice, it gives a sharp dose fall-off outside high dose regions, and it avoids underdosage of the target in 'easy' scenarios. The method shares the benefits of the previous scenario-based robust planning methods over geometric margins for applications where the static dose cloud approximation is inaccurate, such as irradiation with few fields and irradiation with ion beams. These properties are demonstrated on a suite of phantom cases planned for treatment with scanned proton beams subject to systematic setup uncertainty.

What emergency physicians should know about informed consent: legal scenarios, cases, and caveats.

PubMed

Moore, Gregory P; Moffett, Peter M; Fider, Cyril; Moore, Malia J

2014-08-01

The basic concept of obtaining informed consent is familiar to emergency physicians, and many consider themselves well versed on the topic; however, lack of obtaining proper informed consent is a frequent source of lawsuits. The legal definitions and nuances of informed consent might surprise even the most experienced physician. This article will detail the historical legal evolution of the concept of informed consent. It will also report defining and recent court cases that illustrate the current medical-legal status of informed consent. Special scenarios, caveats, and documentation recommendations are discussed. After reading this article the emergency physician will know how to practice and document the appropriate aspects of informed consent in emergency medicine, as well as understand available legal defenses if a lawsuit should arise. © 2014 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

Implications for future survival of delta smelt from four climate change scenarios for the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, Larry R.; Bennett, William A.; Wagner, R. Wayne; Morgan-King, Tara; Knowles, Noah; Feyrer, Frederick; Schoellhamer, David H.; Stacey, Mark T.; Dettinger, Mike

2013-01-01

Changes in the position of the low salinity zone, a habitat suitability index, turbidity, and water temperature modeled from four 100-year scenarios of climate change were evaluated for possible effects on delta smelt Hypomesus transpacificus, which is endemic to the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta. The persistence of delta smelt in much of its current habitat into the next century appears uncertain. By mid-century, the position of the low salinity zone in the fall and the habitat suitability index converged on values only observed during the worst droughts of the baseline period (1969–2000). Projected higher water temperatures would render waters historically inhabited by delta smelt near the confluence of the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers largely uninhabitable. However, the scenarios of climate change are based on assumptions that require caution in the interpretation of the results. Projections like these provide managers with a useful tool for anticipating long-term challenges to managing fish populations and possibly adapting water management to ameliorate those challenges.

Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Manning, Martin; Edmonds, James A.; Emori, S.

2010-06-01

Estimates of recent fossil fuel CO2 emissions have been compared with the IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission scenarios that had been developed for analysis of future climate change, impacts and mitigation. In some cases this comparison uses averages across subgroups of SRES scenarios and for one category of greenhouse gases (industrial sources of CO2). That approach can be misleading and cause confusion as it is inconsistent with many of the papers on future climate change projections that are based on a specific subset of closely scrutinized SRES scenarios, known as illustrative marker scenarios. Here, we show thatmore » comparison between recent estimates of fossil fuel emissions trends and the SRES illustrative marker scenarios leads to the conclusion that recent trends are not outside the SRES range. Furthermore, the recent economic downturn appears to have brought actual emission back toward the middle of the SRES illustrative marker scenarios. We also note that SRES emission scenarios are designed to reflect potential alternative long-term trends in a world without climate policy intervention and the trend in the resulting climate change is not sensitive to short-term fluctuations.« less

EVA Suit Microbial Leakage Investigation Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Falker, Jay; Baker, Christopher; Clayton, Ronald; Rucker, Michelle

2016-01-01

The objective of this project is to collect microbial samples from various EVA suits to determine how much microbial contamination is typically released during simulated planetary exploration activities. Data will be released to the planetary protection and science communities, and advanced EVA system designers. In the best case scenario, we will discover that very little microbial contamination leaks from our current or prototype suit designs, in the worst case scenario, we will identify leak paths, learn more about what affects leakage--and we'll have a new, flight-certified swab tool for our EVA toolbox.

Combination of Face Regions in Forensic Scenarios.

PubMed

Tome, Pedro; Fierrez, Julian; Vera-Rodriguez, Ruben; Ortega-Garcia, Javier

2015-07-01

This article presents an experimental analysis of the combination of different regions of the human face on various forensic scenarios to generate scientific knowledge useful for the forensic experts. Three scenarios of interest at different distances are considered comparing mugshot and CCTV face images using MORPH and SC face databases. One of the main findings is that inner facial regions combine better in mugshot and close CCTV scenarios and outer facial regions combine better in far CCTV scenarios. This means, that depending of the acquisition distance, the discriminative power of the facial regions change, having in some cases better performance than the full face. This effect can be exploited by considering the fusion of facial regions which results in a very significant improvement of the discriminative performance compared to just using the full face. © 2015 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

30 CFR 254.21 - How must I format my response plan?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... divide your response plan for OCS facilities into the sections specified in paragraph (b) and explained in the other sections of this subpart. The plan must have an easily found marker identifying each.... (ii) Contractual agreements. (iii) Worst case discharge scenario. (iv) Dispersant use plan. (v) In...

Dynamic safety assessment of natural gas stations using Bayesian network.

PubMed

Zarei, Esmaeil; Azadeh, Ali; Khakzad, Nima; Aliabadi, Mostafa Mirzaei; Mohammadfam, Iraj

2017-01-05

Pipelines are one of the most popular and effective ways of transporting hazardous materials, especially natural gas. However, the rapid development of gas pipelines and stations in urban areas has introduced a serious threat to public safety and assets. Although different methods have been developed for risk analysis of gas transportation systems, a comprehensive methodology for risk analysis is still lacking, especially in natural gas stations. The present work is aimed at developing a dynamic and comprehensive quantitative risk analysis (DCQRA) approach for accident scenario and risk modeling of natural gas stations. In this approach, a FMEA is used for hazard analysis while a Bow-tie diagram and Bayesian network are employed to model the worst-case accident scenario and to assess the risks. The results have indicated that the failure of the regulator system was the worst-case accident scenario with the human error as the most contributing factor. Thus, in risk management plan of natural gas stations, priority should be given to the most probable root events and main contribution factors, which have identified in the present study, in order to reduce the occurrence probability of the accident scenarios and thus alleviate the risks. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Do women and providers value the same features of contraceptive products? Results of a best-worst stated preference experiment.

PubMed

Weisberg, Edith; Bateson, Deborah; Knox, Stephanie; Haas, Marion; Viney, Rosalie; Street, Deborah; Fiebig, Denzil

2013-06-01

To determine how women and physicians rate individual characteristics of contraceptives. Discrete choice experiments are used in health economics to elicit preferences for healthcare products. A choice experiment uses hypothetical scenarios to determine which individual factors influence choice. Women and general practitioners (GPs) were shown individual characteristics of contraceptives, not always matching existing methods, and chose the best and worst features. Two hundred women, mean age 36, 71% using contraception, were presented with descriptions of 16 possible methods and asked to indicate their preference for individual characteristics. One hundred and sixty-two GPs, mostly women, also completed 16 descriptions. Longer duration of action was most favoured by both, followed by lighter periods with less pain or amenorrhoea. The least attractive features for women were heavier and more painful periods, high cost, irregular periods, low efficacy (10% failure) and weight gain of 3 kg. GPs ranked a 10% pregnancy rate as least attractive followed by heavy painful periods and a 5% failure rate. Women and GPs differed in their ranking of contraceptive characteristics. Long duration of use, high efficacy, minimal or no bleeding without pain, were preferred by both. Very undesirable were heavy periods especially with pain, and low efficacy.

Accuracy of the cosmic-ray soil water content probe in humid forest ecosystems: The worst case scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogena, H. R.; Huisman, J. A.; Baatz, R.; Hendricks Franssen, H.-J.; Vereecken, H.

2013-09-01

Soil water content is one of the key state variables in the soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum due to its important role in the exchange of water and energy at the soil surface. A new promising method to measure integral soil water content at the field or small catchment scale is the cosmic-ray probe (CRP). Recent studies of CRP measurements have mainly presented results from test sites located in very dry areas and from agricultural fields with sandy soils. In this study, distributed continuous soil water content measurements from a wireless sensor network (SoilNet) were used to investigate the accuracy of CRP measurements for soil water content determination in a humid forest ecosystem. Such ecosystems are less favorable for CRP applications due to the presence of a litter layer. In addition, lattice water and carbohydrates of soil organic matter and belowground biomass reduce the effective sensor depth and thus were accounted for in the calibration of the CRP. The hydrogen located in the biomass decreased the level of neutron count rates and thus also decreased the sensitivity of the cosmic-ray probe, which in turn resulted in an increase of the measurement uncertainty. This uncertainty was compensated by using longer integration times (e.g., 24 h). For the Wüstebach forest site, the cosmic-ray probe enabled the assessment of integral daily soil water content dynamics with a RMSE of about 0.03 cm3/cm3 without explicitly considering the litter layer. By including simulated water contents of the litter layer in the calibration, a better accuracy could be achieved.

Scenario-Based Tsunami Hazard Assessment from Earthquake and Landslide Sources for Eastern Sicily, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tinti, S.; Armigliato, A.; Pagnoni, G.; Paparo, M. A.; Zaniboni, F.

2016-12-01

Eastern Sicily was theatre of the most damaging tsunamis that ever struck Italy, such as the 11 January 1693 and the 28 December 1908 tsunamis. Tectonic studies and paleotsunami investigations extended historical records of tsunami occurrence back of several thousands of years. Tsunami sources relevant for eastern Sicily are both local and remote, the latter being located in the Ionian Greece and in the Western Hellenic Arc. Here in 365 A.D. a large earthquake generated a tsunami that was seen in the whole eastern and central Mediterranean including the Sicilian coasts. The objective of this study is the evaluation of tsunami hazard along the coast of eastern Sicily, central Mediterranean, Italy via a scenario-based technique, which has been preferred to the PTHA approach because, when dealing with tsunamis induced by landslides, uncertainties are usually so large to undermine the PTHA results. Tsunamis of earthquake and landslide origin are taken into account for the entire coast of Sicily, from the Messina to the Siracusa provinces. Landslides are essentially local sources and can occur underwater along the unstable flanks of the Messina Straits or along the steep slopes of the Hyblaean-Malta escarpment. The method is based on a two-step procedure. After a preliminary step where very many earthquake and landslide sources are taken into account and tsunamis are computed on a low-resolution grid, the worst-case scenarios are selected and tsunamis are simulated on a finer-resolution grid allowing for a better calculation of coastal wave height and tsunami penetration. The final result of our study is given in the form of aggregate fields computed from individual scenarios. Also interesting is the contribution of the various tsunami sources in different localities along the coast. It is found that the places with the highest level of hazard are the low lands of La Playa south of Catania and of the Bay of Augusta, which is in agreement also with historical

Thermal-hydraulic analysis of N Reactor graphite and shield cooling system performance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Low, J.O.; Schmitt, B.E.

1988-02-01

A series of bounding (worst-case) calculations were performed using a detailed hydrodynamic RELAP5 model of the N Reactor graphite and shield cooling system (GSCS). These calculations were specifically aimed to answer issues raised by the Westinghouse Independent Safety Review (WISR) committee. These questions address the operability of the GSCS during a worst-case degraded-core accident that requires the GDCS to mitigate the consequences of the accident. An accident scenario previously developed was designed as the hydrogen-mitigation design-basis accident (HMDBA). Previous HMDBA heat transfer analysis,, using the TRUMP-BD code, was used to define the thermal boundary conditions that the GSDS may bemore » exposed to. These TRUMP/HMDBA analysis results were used to define the bounding operating conditions of the GSCS during the course of an HMDBA transient. Nominal and degraded GSCS scenarios were investigated using RELAP5 within or at the bounds of the HMDBA transient. 10 refs., 42 figs., 10 tabs.« less

Zika virus in French Polynesia 2013-14: anatomy of a completed outbreak.

PubMed

Musso, Didier; Bossin, Hervé; Mallet, Henri Pierre; Besnard, Marianne; Broult, Julien; Baudouin, Laure; Levi, José Eduardo; Sabino, Ester C; Ghawche, Frederic; Lanteri, Marion C; Baud, David

2018-05-01

The Zika virus crisis exemplified the risk associated with emerging pathogens and was a reminder that preparedness for the worst-case scenario, although challenging, is needed. Herein, we review all data reported during the unexpected emergence of Zika virus in French Polynesia in late 2013. We focus on the new findings reported during this outbreak, especially the first description of severe neurological complications in adults and the retrospective description of CNS malformations in neonates, the isolation of Zika virus in semen, the potential for blood-transfusion transmission, mother-to-child transmission, and the development of new diagnostic assays. We describe the effect of this outbreak on health systems, the implementation of vector-borne control strategies, and the line of communication used to alert the international community of the new risk associated with Zika virus. This outbreak highlighted the need for careful monitoring of all unexpected events that occur during an emergence, to implement surveillance and research programmes in parallel to management of cases, and to be prepared to the worst-case scenario. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Web Based Tool for Mission Operations Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyles, Carole A.; Bindschadler, Duane L.

2008-01-01

A conventional practice for spaceflight projects is to document scenarios in a monolithic Operations Concept document. Such documents can be hundreds of pages long and may require laborious updates. Software development practice utilizes scenarios in the form of smaller, individual use cases, which are often structured and managed using UML. We have developed a process and a web-based scenario tool that utilizes a similar philosophy of smaller, more compact scenarios (but avoids the formality of UML). The need for a scenario process and tool became apparent during the authors' work on a large astrophysics mission. It was noted that every phase of the Mission (e.g., formulation, design, verification and validation, and operations) looked back to scenarios to assess completeness of requirements and design. It was also noted that terminology needed to be clarified and structured to assure communication across all levels of the project. Attempts to manage, communicate, and evolve scenarios at all levels of a project using conventional tools (e.g., Excel) and methods (Scenario Working Group meetings) were not effective given limitations on budget and staffing. The objective of this paper is to document the scenario process and tool created to offer projects a low-cost capability to create, communicate, manage, and evolve scenarios throughout project development. The process and tool have the further benefit of allowing the association of requirements with particular scenarios, establishing and viewing relationships between higher- and lower-level scenarios, and the ability to place all scenarios in a shared context. The resulting structured set of scenarios is widely visible (using a web browser), easily updated, and can be searched according to various criteria including the level (e.g., Project, System, and Team) and Mission Phase. Scenarios are maintained in a web-accessible environment that provides a structured set of scenario fields and allows for maximum

Worst error performance of continuous Kalman filters. [for deep space navigation and maneuvers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nishimura, T.

1975-01-01

The worst error performance of estimation filters is investigated for continuous systems in this paper. The pathological performance study, without assuming any dynamical model such as Markov processes for perturbations, except for its bounded amplitude, will give practical and dependable criteria in establishing the navigation and maneuver strategy in deep space missions.

A generalized land-use scenario generator: a case study for the Congo basin.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caporaso, Luca; Tompkins, Adrian Mark; Biondi, Riccardo; Bell, Jean Pierre

2014-05-01

The impact of deforestation on climate is often studied using highly idealized "instant deforestation" experiments due to the lack of generalized deforestation scenario generators coupled to climate model land-surface schemes. A new deforestation scenario generator has been therefore developed to fulfill this role known as the deforestation ScenArio GEnerator, or FOREST-SAGE. The model produces distributed maps of deforestation rates that account for local factors such as proximity to transport networks, distance weighted population density, forest fragmentation and presence of protected areas and logging concessions. The integrated deforestation risk is scaled to give the deforestation rate as specified by macro-region scenarios such as "business as usual" or "increased protection legislation" which are a function of future time. FOREST-SAGE was initialized and validated using the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Vegetation Continuous Field data. Despite the high cloud coverage of Congo Basin over the year, we were able to validate the results with high confidence from 2001 to 2010 in a large forested area. Furthermore a set of scenarios has been used to provide a range of possible pathways for the evolution of land-use change over the Congo Basin for the period 2010-2030.

Climate change and socio-economic scenarios, land use modelling implications on water resources in an inner alpine area, Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rey, Emmanuel; Schneider, Flurina; Liniger, Hanspeter; Weingartner, Rolf; Herweg, Karl

2014-05-01

The MontanAqua project aims to study the water resources management in the region Sierre-Montana (Valais, Switzerland). Land use is known to have an influence on the water resources (soil moisture dynamic, soil sealing, surface runoff and deep percolation). Thus land use modelling is of importance for the water resources management. An actual land use map was produced using infrared imagery (Niklaus 2012, Fig.1). Land use changes are known to be mainly drived by socio-economic factors as well as climatic factors (Dolman et al. 2003). Potential future Land uses was separatly predicted according to 1-. socio-economic and 2-. climatic/abiotic drivers : 1. 4 socio-economic scenarios were developped with stakeholders (Schneider et al. 2013) between 2010 and 2012. We modeled those socio-economic scenarios into a GIS application using Python programming (ModelBuilder in ArcGIS 10) to get a cartographic transcription of the wishes of the stakeholders for their region in 2050. 2. Uncorrelated climatic and abiotic drivers were used in a BIOMOD2 (Georges et al. 2013) framework. 4 models were used: Maximum Entropy (MAXENT), Multiple Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), Classification Tree Analysis (CTA) and the Flexible Discriminant Analysis (FDA) to predict grassland, alpine pasture, vineyards and forest in our study region. Climatic scenarios were then introduced into the models to predict potential land use in 2050 driven only by climatic and abiotic factors The comparison of all the outputs demonstrates that the socio-economic drivers will have a more important impact in the region than the climatic drivers (e.g. -70% grassland surface for the worst socio-economic scenario vs. -40% of grassland surface for the worst climatic models). Further analysis also brings out the sensitivity of the grassland/alpine pasture system to the climate change and to socio-economic changes. Future work will be to cross the different land use maps obtained by the two model types and to use

Medium-Term Prospects for the Mexican Economy: Some Modeling Results

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-07-01

Mexican prospects. A base case scenario illustrates that without a net inflow of foreign capital, the peso cannot be sustained at current real levels... peso and no decline in real income. The model can also produce a pessimistic scenario that suggests the worst that might happen to the Mexican economy...net inflow of foreign capital (in the form of either lending or direct investment) the peso cannot be sustained at current real levels (assuming that

Effect of Impact Location on the Response of Shuttle Wing Leading Edge Panel 9

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lyle, Karen H.; Spellman, Regina L.; Hardy, Robin C.; Fasanella, Edwin L.; Jackson, Karen E.

2005-01-01

The objective of this paper is to compare the results of several simulations performed to determine the worst-case location for a foam impact on the Space Shuttle wing leading edge. The simulations were performed using the commercial non-linear transient dynamic finite element code, LS-DYNA. These simulations represent the first in a series of parametric studies performed to support the selection of the worst-case impact scenario. Panel 9 was selected for this study to enable comparisons with previous simulations performed during the Columbia Accident Investigation. The projectile for this study is a 5.5-in cube of typical external tank foam weighing 0.23 lb. Seven locations spanning the panel surface were impacted with the foam cube. For each of these cases, the foam was traveling at 1000 ft/s directly aft, along the orbiter X-axis. Results compared from the parametric studies included strains, contact forces, and material energies for various simulations. The results show that the worst case impact location was on the top surface, near the apex.

Vulnerability assessment of the impact of sea-level rise and flooding on the Moroccan coast: The case of the Mediterranean eastern zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snoussi, Maria; Ouchani, Tachfine; Niazi, Saïda

2008-04-01

The eastern part of the Mediterranean coast of Morocco is physically and socio-economically vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise, due to its low topography and its high ecological and touristic value. Assessment of the potential land loss by inundation has been based on empirical approaches using a minimum inundation level of 2 m and a maximum inundation level of 7 m, where scenarios for future sea-level rise range from 200 to 860 mm, with a 'best estimate' of 490 mm. The socio-economic impacts have been based on two possible alternative futures: (1) a 'worst-case' scenario, obtained by combining the 'economic development first' scenario with the maximum inundation level; and (2) a 'best-case' scenario, by combining the 'sustainability first' scenario with the minimum inundation level. Inundation analysis, based on Geographical Information Systems and a modelling approach to erosion, has identified both locations and the socioeconomic sectors that are most at risk to accelerated sea-level rise. Results indicate that 24% and 59% of the area will be lost by flooding at minimum and maximum inundation levels, respectively. The most severely impacted sectors are expected to be the residential and recreational areas, agricultural land, and the natural ecosystem. Shoreline erosion will affect 50% and 70% of the total area in 2050 and 2100, respectively. Potential strategies to ameliorate the impact of seawater inundation include: wetland preservation; beach nourishment at tourist resorts; and the afforestation of dunes. As this coast is planned to become one of the most developed tourist resorts in Morocco by 2010, measures such as building regulation, urban growth planning and development of an Integrated Coastal Zone Management Plan, are recommended for the region.

Health risk impacts analysis of fugitive aromatic compounds emissions from the working face of a municipal solid waste landfill in China.

PubMed

Liu, Yanjun; Liu, Yanting; Li, Hao; Fu, Xindi; Guo, Hanwen; Meng, Ruihong; Lu, Wenjing; Zhao, Ming; Wang, Hongtao

2016-12-01

Aromatic compounds (ACs) emitted from landfills have attracted a lot of attention of the public due to their adverse impacts on the environment and human health. This study assessed the health risk impacts of the fugitive ACs emitted from the working face of a municipal solid waste (MSW) landfill in China. The emission data was acquired by long-term in-situ samplings using a modified wind tunnel system. The uncertainty of aromatic emissions is determined by means of statistics and the emission factors were thus developed. Two scenarios, i.e. 'normal-case' and 'worst-case', were presented to evaluate the potential health risk in different weather conditions. For this typical large anaerobic landfill, toluene was the dominant species owing to its highest releasing rate (3.40±3.79g·m -2 ·d -1 ). Despite being of negligible non-carcinogenic risk, the ACs might bring carcinogenic risks to human in the nearby area. Ethylbenzene was the major health threat substance. The cumulative carcinogenic risk impact area is as far as ~1.5km at downwind direction for the normal-case scenario, and even nearly 4km for the worst-case scenario. Health risks of fugitive ACs emissions from active landfills should be concerned, especially for landfills which still receiving mixed MSW. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

When Food Is a Foe.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fitzgerald, Patricia L.

1998-01-01

Although only 5% of the population has severe food allergies, school business officials must be prepared for the worst-case scenario. Banning foods and segregating allergic children are harmful practices. Education and sensible behavior are the best medicine when food allergies and intolerances are involved. Resources are listed. (MLH)

Indoor exposure to toluene from printed matter matters: complementary views from life cycle assessment and risk assessment.

PubMed

Walser, Tobias; Juraske, Ronnie; Demou, Evangelia; Hellweg, Stefanie

2014-01-01

A pronounced presence of toluene from rotogravure printed matter has been frequently observed indoors. However, its consequences to human health in the life cycle of magazines are poorly known. Therefore, we quantified human-health risks in indoor environments with Risk Assessment (RA) and impacts relative to the total impact of toxic releases occurring in the life cycle of a magazine with Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). We used a one-box indoor model to estimate toluene concentrations in printing facilities, newsstands, and residences in a best, average, and worst-case scenario. The modeled concentrations are in the range of the values measured in on-site campaigns. Toluene concentrations can be close or even surpass the occupational legal thresholds in printing facilities in realistic worst-case scenarios. The concentrations in homes can surpass the US EPA reference dose (69 μg/kg/day) in worst-case scenarios, but are still at least 1 order of magnitude lower than in press rooms or newsstands. However, toluene inhaled at home becomes the dominant contribution to the total potential human toxicity impacts of toluene from printed matter when assessed with LCA, using the USEtox method complemented with indoor characterization factors for toluene. The significant contribution (44%) of toluene exposure in production, retail, and use in households, to the total life cycle impact of a magazine in the category of human toxicity, demonstrates that the indoor compartment requires particular attention in LCA. While RA works with threshold levels, LCA assumes that every toxic emission causes an incremental change to the total impact. Here, the combination of the two paradigms provides valuable information on the life cycle stages of printed matter.

Impacts of Mega-droughts on Water and Food Security in the Indo-Gangetic Plains: A Paleoclimate Scenario Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, T.; Pitois, G.; Ringler, C.; Wang, D.; Rosegrant, M. W.

2014-12-01

Spanning over Pakistan, northern India, Nepal, and Bangladesh, the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) is the home of several hundred million people and the "bread basket" for much of South Asia. The flat terrain, fertile soils, and favorable climate of the IGP make it agriculturally productive. However prolonged droughts caused by consecutive monsoon failures can seriously affect crop production and social wellbeing, in particular for the eastern part of the plains where agriculture remains largely rain-fed. Severe droughts were observed in the IGP historically, and recent paleoclimate studies reveal that more severe and long-lasting "mega-droughts" had happened in the distant past. Agricultural losses from major droughts can dramatically affect food systems and increase the vulnerability of resource-poor people given the delicate balance between food supply and demand under growing natural resource scarcity. To estimate the potential impacts of "mega-droughts" on the water and food systems in the IGP, we develop worst-case drought scenarios through inverse modeling of tree-ring-based PDSI reconstruction that covers the period 1300-1899 (A.D.), and analyze these historic mega-drought scenarios using IFPRI's IMPACT global water and food projections model. The base year of the IMPACT model is parameterized using socioeconomic and engineering data that reflect today's water management and infrastructure, agricultural technologies, population, income, and market institutions. The base year simulation is validated against observations to ensure model fidelity. Anticipated changes of the above factors in the future out to 2050 are specified using demographic and economic growth projections and literature data. Model simulation results represent the consequences of mega-droughts in the IGP given technological and socioeconomic conditions of today and in the future. We also explore policy options for increasing the resilience of water and food systems in the IGP, through scenario

Quantifying policy options for reducing future coronary heart disease mortality in England: a modelling study.

PubMed

Scholes, Shaun; Bajekal, Madhavi; Norman, Paul; O'Flaherty, Martin; Hawkins, Nathaniel; Kivimäki, Mika; Capewell, Simon; Raine, Rosalind

2013-01-01

To estimate the number of coronary heart disease (CHD) deaths potentially preventable in England in 2020 comparing four risk factor change scenarios. Using 2007 as baseline, the IMPACTSEC model was extended to estimate the potential number of CHD deaths preventable in England in 2020 by age, gender and Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007 quintiles given four risk factor change scenarios: (a) assuming recent trends will continue; (b) assuming optimal but feasible levels already achieved elsewhere; (c) an intermediate point, halfway between current and optimal levels; and (d) assuming plateauing or worsening levels, the worst case scenario. These four scenarios were compared to the baseline scenario with both risk factors and CHD mortality rates remaining at 2007 levels. This would result in approximately 97,000 CHD deaths in 2020. Assuming recent trends will continue would avert approximately 22,640 deaths (95% uncertainty interval: 20,390-24,980). There would be some 39,720 (37,120-41,900) fewer deaths in 2020 with optimal risk factor levels and 22,330 fewer (19,850-24,300) in the intermediate scenario. In the worst case scenario, 16,170 additional deaths (13,880-18,420) would occur. If optimal risk factor levels were achieved, the gap in CHD rates between the most and least deprived areas would halve with falls in systolic blood pressure, physical inactivity and total cholesterol providing the largest contributions to mortality gains. CHD mortality reductions of up to 45%, accompanied by significant reductions in area deprivation mortality disparities, would be possible by implementing optimal preventive policies.

Quantifying Policy Options for Reducing Future Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in England: A Modelling Study

PubMed Central

Scholes, Shaun; Bajekal, Madhavi; Norman, Paul; O’Flaherty, Martin; Hawkins, Nathaniel; Kivimäki, Mika; Capewell, Simon; Raine, Rosalind

2013-01-01

Aims To estimate the number of coronary heart disease (CHD) deaths potentially preventable in England in 2020 comparing four risk factor change scenarios. Methods and Results Using 2007 as baseline, the IMPACTSEC model was extended to estimate the potential number of CHD deaths preventable in England in 2020 by age, gender and Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007 quintiles given four risk factor change scenarios: (a) assuming recent trends will continue; (b) assuming optimal but feasible levels already achieved elsewhere; (c) an intermediate point, halfway between current and optimal levels; and (d) assuming plateauing or worsening levels, the worst case scenario. These four scenarios were compared to the baseline scenario with both risk factors and CHD mortality rates remaining at 2007 levels. This would result in approximately 97,000 CHD deaths in 2020. Assuming recent trends will continue would avert approximately 22,640 deaths (95% uncertainty interval: 20,390-24,980). There would be some 39,720 (37,120-41,900) fewer deaths in 2020 with optimal risk factor levels and 22,330 fewer (19,850-24,300) in the intermediate scenario. In the worst case scenario, 16,170 additional deaths (13,880-18,420) would occur. If optimal risk factor levels were achieved, the gap in CHD rates between the most and least deprived areas would halve with falls in systolic blood pressure, physical inactivity and total cholesterol providing the largest contributions to mortality gains. Conclusions CHD mortality reductions of up to 45%, accompanied by significant reductions in area deprivation mortality disparities, would be possible by implementing optimal preventive policies. PMID:23936122

Dark scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahonen, Pasi; Alahuhta, Petteri; Daskala, Barbara; Delaitre, Sabine; Hert, Paul De; Lindner, Ralf; Maghiros, Ioannis; Moscibroda, Anna; Schreurs, Wim; Verlinden, Michiel

In this chapter, we present four "dark scenarios" that highlight the key socio-economic, legal, technological and ethical risks to privacy, identity, trust, security and inclusiveness posed by new AmI technologies. We call them dark scenarios, because they show things that could go wrong in an AmI world, because they present visions of the future that we do not want to become reality. The scenarios expose threats and vulnerabilities as a way to inform policy-makers and planners about issues they need to take into account in developing new policies or updating existing legislation. Before presenting the four scenarios and our analysis of each, we describe the process of how we created the scenarios as well as the elements in our methodology for analysing the scenarios.

Contrasting SWAT predictions of watershed-level streamflow and nutrient loss resulting from static versus dynamic atmospheric CO2 inputs

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Past climate observations have indicated a rapid increase in global atmospheric CO2 concentration during late 20th century (13 ppm/decade), and models project further rise throughout the 21st century (24 ppm/decade and 69 ppm/decade in the best and worst case scenario, respectively). We modified SWA...

A Comparison of Learning Technologies for Teaching Spacecraft Software Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Straub, Jeremy

2014-01-01

The development of software for spacecraft represents a particular challenge and is, in many ways, a worst case scenario from a design perspective. Spacecraft software must be "bulletproof" and operate for extended periods of time without user intervention. If the software fails, it cannot be manually serviced. Software failure may…

Scalene Myofascial Pain Syndrome Mimicking Cervical Disc Prolapse: A Report of Two Cases

PubMed Central

Abd Jalil, Nizar; Awang, Mohammad Saufi; Omar, Mahamarowi

2010-01-01

Scalene myofascial pain syndrome is a regional pain syndrome wherein pain originates over the neck area and radiates down to the arm. This condition may present as primary or secondary to underlying cervical pathology. Although scalene myofascial pain syndrome is a well known medical entity, it is often misdiagnosed as being some other neck pain associated with radiculopathy, such as cervical disc prolapse, cervical spinal stenosis and thoracic outlet syndrome. Because scalene myofascial pain syndrome mimics cervical radiculopathy, this condition often leads to mismanagement, which can, in turn, result in persistent pain and suffering. In the worst-case scenarios, patients may be subjected to unjustifiable surgical intervention. Because the clinical findings in scalene myofascial pain syndrome are “pathognomonic”, clinicians should be aware of ways to recognize this disorder and be able to differentiate it from other conditions that present with neck pain and rediculopathy. We present two cases of unilateral scalene myofascial pain syndrome that significantly impaired the patients’ functioning and quality of life. This case report serves to create awareness about the existence of the syndrome and to highlight the potential morbidity due to clinical misdiagnosis. PMID:22135529

The effect of acutely administered MDMA on subjective and BOLD-fMRI responses to favourite and worst autobiographical memories.

PubMed

Carhart-Harris, R L; Wall, M B; Erritzoe, D; Kaelen, M; Ferguson, B; De Meer, I; Tanner, M; Bloomfield, M; Williams, T M; Bolstridge, M; Stewart, L; Morgan, C J; Newbould, R D; Feilding, A; Curran, H V; Nutt, D J

2014-04-01

3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA) is a potent monoamine-releaser that is widely used as a recreational drug. Preliminary work has supported the potential of MDMA in psychotherapy for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). The neurobiological mechanisms underlying its putative efficacy are, however, poorly understood. Psychotherapy for PTSD usually requires that patients revisit traumatic memories, and it has been argued that this is easier to do under MDMA. Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) was used to investigate the effect of MDMA on recollection of favourite and worst autobiographical memories (AMs). Nineteen participants (five females) with previous experience with MDMA performed a blocked AM recollection (AMR) paradigm after ingestion of 100 mg of MDMA-HCl or ascorbic acid (placebo) in a double-blind, repeated-measures design. Memory cues describing participants' AMs were read by them in the scanner. Favourite memories were rated as significantly more vivid, emotionally intense and positive after MDMA than placebo and worst memories were rated as less negative. Functional MRI data from 17 participants showed robust activations to AMs in regions known to be involved in AMR. There was also a significant effect of memory valence: hippocampal regions showed preferential activations to favourite memories and executive regions to worst memories. MDMA augmented activations to favourite memories in the bilateral fusiform gyrus and somatosensory cortex and attenuated activations to worst memories in the left anterior temporal cortex. These findings are consistent with a positive emotional-bias likely mediated by MDMA's pro-monoaminergic pharmacology.

Analysis of JT-60SA operational scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garzotti, L.; Barbato, E.; Garcia, J.; Hayashi, N.; Voitsekhovitch, I.; Giruzzi, G.; Maget, P.; Romanelli, M.; Saarelma, S.; Stankiewitz, R.; Yoshida, M.; Zagórski, R.

2018-02-01

Reference scenarios for the JT-60SA tokamak have been simulated with one-dimensional transport codes to assess the stationary state of the flat-top phase and provide a profile database for further physics studies (e.g. MHD stability, gyrokinetic analysis) and diagnostics design. The types of scenario considered vary from pulsed standard H-mode to advanced non-inductive steady-state plasmas. In this paper we present the results obtained with the ASTRA, CRONOS, JINTRAC and TOPICS codes equipped with the Bohm/gyro-Bohm, CDBM and GLF23 transport models. The scenarios analysed here are: a standard ELMy H-mode, a hybrid scenario and a non-inductive steady state plasma, with operational parameters from the JT-60SA research plan. Several simulations of the scenarios under consideration have been performed with the above mentioned codes and transport models. The results from the different codes are in broad agreement and the main plasma parameters generally agree well with the zero dimensional estimates reported previously. The sensitivity of the results to different transport models and, in some cases, to the ELM/pedestal model has been investigated.

Using Multi-Scenario Tsunami Modelling Results combined with Probabilistic Analyses to provide Hazard Information for the South-WestCoast of Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zosseder, K.; Post, J.; Steinmetz, T.; Wegscheider, S.; Strunz, G.

2009-04-01

Indonesia is located at one of the most active geological subduction zones in the world. Following the most recent seaquakes and their subsequent tsunamis in December 2004 and July 2006 it is expected that also in the near future tsunamis are likely to occur due to increased tectonic tensions leading to abrupt vertical seafloor alterations after a century of relative tectonic silence. To face this devastating threat tsunami hazard maps are very important as base for evacuation planning and mitigation strategies. In terms of a tsunami impact the hazard assessment is mostly covered by numerical modelling because the model results normally offer the most precise database for a hazard analysis as they include spatially distributed data and their influence to the hydraulic dynamics. Generally a model result gives a probability for the intensity distribution of a tsunami at the coast (or run up) and the spatial distribution of the maximum inundation area depending on the location and magnitude of the tsunami source used. The boundary condition of the source used for the model is mostly chosen by a worst case approach. Hence the location and magnitude which are likely to occur and which are assumed to generate the worst impact are used to predict the impact at a specific area. But for a tsunami hazard assessment covering a large coastal area, as it is demanded in the GITEWS (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) project in which the present work is embedded, this approach is not practicable because a lot of tsunami sources can cause an impact at the coast and must be considered. Thus a multi-scenario tsunami model approach is developed to provide a reliable hazard assessment covering large areas. For the Indonesian Early Warning System many tsunami scenarios were modelled by the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) at different probable tsunami sources and with different magnitudes along the Sunda Trench. Every modelled scenario delivers the spatial distribution of

The Value of CCS under Current Policy Scenarios: NDCs and Beyond

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Davidson, Casie L.; Dahowski, Robert T.; McJeon, Haewon C.

This paper describes preliminary results of analysis using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to evaluate the potential role of CCS in addressing emissions reduction targets. Scenarios are modelled using the Paris-Increased Ambition (PIA) case developed by Fawcett et al. (2015), and a more aggressive Paris Two-Degree Ambition (P2A) case. Both cases are based upon nationally determined contributions (NDCs) agreed to at the UNFCCC Conference of Parties (COP-21) in December 2015, coupled with additional mitigation effort beyond the 2030 Paris timeframe, through the end of the century. Analysis of CCS deployment and abatement costs under both policy scenarios suggests that,more » as modelled, having CCS in the technological portfolio could reduce the global cost of addressing emissions reduction targets specified under the policy scenario by trillions of dollars, primarily by enabling a smoother and lower-cost transition to next-generation technologies. Through the end of the century, total global abatement costs associated with the PIA case – with five percent annual reduction in emission intensity and reaching 2.2 degrees by 2100 – are reduced by $15 trillion USD in the scenario where CCS is available to deploy by 2025 and remains available through 2100, reflecting a 47 percent savings in the cost of climate change abatement. Under the more ambitious P2A case, with 8 percent annual reduction in emission intensity and reaching 1.9 degrees by 2100, the availability of CCS reduces global abatement costs by $22 trillion USD through the end of the century, again nearly halving the costs of addressing the policy, relative to achieving the same target using an energy portfolio that does not include CCS. PIA and P2A scenarios with CCS result in 1,250 and 1,580 GtCO2 of global geologic storage by the end of the century, respectively.« less

DENTAL CARE PROFESSIONALS AND CHILD PROTECTION: CASE SCENARIOS AND DISCUSSIONS.

PubMed

Park, Christine

2015-11-01

Any concerns about paediatric patients in general dental practice can be stressful for all involved. Barriers to the reporting of concerns by dental teams are known to exist. Anything that can help ease those situations can only be beneficial. In this article we look at three scenarios that could arise which I am often asked about during teaching and training sessions on safeguarding and child protection for dental teams. They can be discussed at team meetings and training, so that if they are ever to happen for real, everyone will know exactly what to do. This article cannot be completely prescriptive as there will be local variations, but it gives general guidance on issues raised by the scenarios. If you already have a child protection policy in your practice, make sure you know what it says; and if you don't this article will point the way to further resources for developing one.

A multivariate copula-based framework for dealing with hazard scenarios and failure probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salvadori, G.; Durante, F.; De Michele, C.; Bernardi, M.; Petrella, L.

2016-05-01

This paper is of methodological nature, and deals with the foundations of Risk Assessment. Several international guidelines have recently recommended to select appropriate/relevant Hazard Scenarios in order to tame the consequences of (extreme) natural phenomena. In particular, the scenarios should be multivariate, i.e., they should take into account the fact that several variables, generally not independent, may be of interest. In this work, it is shown how a Hazard Scenario can be identified in terms of (i) a specific geometry and (ii) a suitable probability level. Several scenarios, as well as a Structural approach, are presented, and due comparisons are carried out. In addition, it is shown how the Hazard Scenario approach illustrated here is well suited to cope with the notion of Failure Probability, a tool traditionally used for design and risk assessment in engineering practice. All the results outlined throughout the work are based on the Copula Theory, which turns out to be a fundamental theoretical apparatus for doing multivariate risk assessment: formulas for the calculation of the probability of Hazard Scenarios in the general multidimensional case (d≥2) are derived, and worthy analytical relationships among the probabilities of occurrence of Hazard Scenarios are presented. In addition, the Extreme Value and Archimedean special cases are dealt with, relationships between dependence ordering and scenario levels are studied, and a counter-example concerning Tail Dependence is shown. Suitable indications for the practical application of the techniques outlined in the work are given, and two case studies illustrate the procedures discussed in the paper.

Facilitating Interdisciplinary Work: Using Quality Assessment to Create Common Ground

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oberg, Gunilla

2009-01-01

Newcomers often underestimate the challenges of interdisciplinary work and, as a rule, do not spend sufficient time to allow them to overcome differences and create common ground, which in turn leads to frustration, unresolved conflicts, and, in the worst case scenario, discontinued work. The key to successful collaboration is to facilitate the…

Theoretical assessment of the maximum obtainable power in wireless power transfer constrained by human body exposure limits in a typical room scenario.

PubMed

Chen, Xi Lin; De Santis, Valerio; Umenei, Aghuinyue Esai

2014-07-07

In this study, the maximum received power obtainable through wireless power transfer (WPT) by a small receiver (Rx) coil from a relatively large transmitter (Tx) coil is numerically estimated in the frequency range from 100 kHz to 10 MHz based on human body exposure limits. Analytical calculations were first conducted to determine the worst-case coupling between a homogeneous cylindrical phantom with a radius of 0.65 m and a Tx coil positioned 0.1 m away with the radius ranging from 0.25 to 2.5 m. Subsequently, three high-resolution anatomical models were employed to compute the peak induced field intensities with respect to various Tx coil locations and dimensions. Based on the computational results, scaling factors which correlate the cylindrical phantom and anatomical model results were derived. Next, the optimal operating frequency, at which the highest transmitter source power can be utilized without exceeding the exposure limits, is found to be around 2 MHz. Finally, a formulation is proposed to estimate the maximum obtainable power of WPT in a typical room scenario while adhering to the human body exposure compliance mandates.

Theoretical assessment of the maximum obtainable power in wireless power transfer constrained by human body exposure limits in a typical room scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xi Lin; De Santis, Valerio; Esai Umenei, Aghuinyue

2014-07-01

In this study, the maximum received power obtainable through wireless power transfer (WPT) by a small receiver (Rx) coil from a relatively large transmitter (Tx) coil is numerically estimated in the frequency range from 100 kHz to 10 MHz based on human body exposure limits. Analytical calculations were first conducted to determine the worst-case coupling between a homogeneous cylindrical phantom with a radius of 0.65 m and a Tx coil positioned 0.1 m away with the radius ranging from 0.25 to 2.5 m. Subsequently, three high-resolution anatomical models were employed to compute the peak induced field intensities with respect to various Tx coil locations and dimensions. Based on the computational results, scaling factors which correlate the cylindrical phantom and anatomical model results were derived. Next, the optimal operating frequency, at which the highest transmitter source power can be utilized without exceeding the exposure limits, is found to be around 2 MHz. Finally, a formulation is proposed to estimate the maximum obtainable power of WPT in a typical room scenario while adhering to the human body exposure compliance mandates.

A scenario-planning approach to human resources for health: the case of community pharmacists in Portugal.

PubMed

Gregório, João; Cavaco, Afonso; Velez Lapão, Luís

2014-10-13

Health workforce planning is especially important in a setting of political, social, and economic uncertainty. Portuguese community pharmacists are experiencing such conditions as well as increasing patient empowerment, shortage of primary care physicians, and primary health care reforms. This study aims to design three future scenarios for Portuguese community pharmacists, recognizing the changing environment as an opportunity to develop the role that community pharmacists may play in the Portuguese health system. The community pharmacist scenario design followed a three-stage approach. The first stage comprised thinking of relevant questions to be addressed and definition of the scenarios horizon. The second stage comprised two face-to-face, scenario-building workshops, for which 10 experts from practice and academic settings were invited. Academic and professional experience was the main selection criteria. The first workshop was meant for context analysis and design of draft scenarios, while the second was aimed at scenario analysis and validation. The final scenarios were built merging workshops' information with data collected from scientific literature followed by team consensus. The final stage involved scenario development carried by the authors alone, developing the narratives behind each scenario. Analysis allowed the identification of critical factors expected to have particular influence in 2020 for Portuguese community pharmacists, leading to two critical uncertainties: the "Legislative environment" and "Ability to innovate and develop services". Three final scenarios were built, namely "Pharmacy-Mall", "e-Pharmacist", and "Reorganize or Die". These scenarios provide possible trends for market needs, pharmacist workforce numbers, and expected qualifications to be developed by future professionals. In all scenarios it is clear that the future advance of Portuguese community pharmacists will depend on pharmaceutical services provision beyond medicine

Open Scenario Study: IDA Open Scenario Repository User’s Manual

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

Thomason, Study Co-Lead Zachary S. Rabold, Sub-Task Lead Ylli Bajraktari Rachel D. Dubin Mary Catherine Flythe Open Scenario Study: IDA Open Scenario... Bajraktari Rachel D. Dubin Mary Catherine Flythe Open Scenario Study: IDA Open Scenario Repository User’s Manual iii Preface This document reports the...vii Appendices A. Identifying Scenario Components...........................................................A-1 B . Acronyms

[Accidental ingestion of dental prostheses; 2 scenarios in the management and outcome. Case reports].

PubMed

Santander-Flores, Selene Artemisa; Mata-Quintero, Carlos Javier; O'Farrill-Anzures, Ricardo; González-Villegas, Paloma; Calvo-Vázquez, Iván; Campos-Serna, Esteban Israel

Foreign body ingestion is the second cause of endoscopic emergency in the elderly, and dentures are the most frequent accidently ingested objects. Once in the stomach, their expulsion can be expected in 4 to 6 days. The treatment is wait and see in asymptomatic patients, but preventive endoscopic removal can also be performed. To present 2 scenarios of the outcome and treatment in patients with foreign body ingestion. Patient under study due to weight loss, with a denture detected by abdominal x-ray, ingested inadvertently a year ago. A laparotomy was required as extraction by colonoscopy failed, due to excessive inflammation. The second case, of 24-hour onset, was due to the ingestion of a partial denture. As duodenal endoscopy extraction was unsuccessful, the patient was kept under observation. When it did not pass the caecum, it was extracted by colonoscopy, with no further complications and shorter hospital stay. Follow-up can be by simple abdominal x-ray, with endoscopic management if there is insufficient progress. In one of our cases, the outcome was unfavourable due to time of ingestion, and endoscopic management was not possible, whereas in the second case colonoscopy was performed early with success. Proper diagnostic and timely treatment mark the difference in the progression and outcome of the ingestion of foreign bodies. Copyright © 2016 Academia Mexicana de Cirugía A.C. Publicado por Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

Scenario-based projections of future urban inundation within a coupled hydrodynamic model framework: A case study in Dongguan City, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Xushu; Wang, Zhaoli; Guo, Shenglian; Liao, Weilin; Zeng, Zhaoyang; Chen, Xiaohong

2017-04-01

One major threat to cities at present is the increased inundation hazards owing to changes in climate and accelerated human activity. Future evolution of urban inundation is still an unsolved issue, given large uncertainties in future environmental conditions within urbanized areas. Developing model techniques and urban inundation projections are essential for inundation management. In this paper, we proposed a 2D hydrodynamic inundation model by coupling SWMM and LISFLOOD-FP models, and revealed how future urban inundation would evolve for different storms, sea level rise and subsidence scenarios based on the developed model. The Shiqiao Creek District (SCD) in Dongguan City was used as the case study. The model ability was validated against the June 13th, 2008 inundation event, which occurred in SCD, and proved capable of simulating dynamic urban inundation. Scenario analyses revealed a high degree of consistency in the inundation patterns among different storms, with larger magnitudes corresponding to greater return periods. Inundations across SCD generally vary as a function of storm intensity, but for lowlands or regions without drainage facilities inundations tend to aggravate over time. In riverfronts, inundations would exacerbate with sea level rise or subsidence; however, the inland inundations are seemingly insensitive to both factors. For the combined scenario of 100-yr storm, 0.5 m subsidence and 0.7 m sea level rise, the riverside inundations would occur much in advance, whilst catastrophic inundations sweep across SCD. Furthermore, the optimal low-impact development found for this case study includes 0.2 km2 of permeable pavements, 0.1 km2 of rain barrels and 0.7 km2 of green roofs.

Space Based Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Contribution to Global Strike in 2035

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-02-15

include using high altitude air platforms and airships as a short-term solution, and small satellites with an Operationally Responsive Space (ORS) launch...irreversible threats, along with a worst case scenario. Section IV provides greater detail of the high altitude air platform, airship , and commercial space...Resultantly, the U.S. could use high altitude air platforms, airships , and cyber to complement its space systems in case of denial, degradation, or

Factors influencing care seeking for a self-defined worst panic attack.

PubMed

Katerndahl, David A

2002-04-01

Only 60 percent of persons who experience panic attacks seek treatment for them, many at the emergency department. The author documented care-seeking behaviors among persons living in the community who had experienced panic attacks and studied determinants of care seeking. In-depth structured interviews were conducted with 97 randomly selected community-dwelling adults who met DSM-III-R criteria for panic attacks. Participants were asked whether they had contemplated using or had actually used medical, alternative, and family sources of care when they had experienced their worst attack. Seventy-seven participants (79 percent) had considered using a general medical or mental health site when they experienced their worst attack. Of these, 50 (52 percent) had actually used such a site. General medical sites were contemplated more often (72 percent of participants) than mental health sites (27 percent), particularly emergency departments (43 percent) and family physicians' offices (34 percent). Other sources, such as friends or family members, alternative sites, and self-treatment, were contemplated less often. Once contemplated, certain sources were readily used, such as ambulances, family members, and self-treatment. Several factors were significantly associated with whether a person contemplated seeking care: access or barriers to treatment, perception of symptoms and of the reasons for the panic attack, and family-related variables. Contemplation and use of a mental health site after a panic attack was rare among the participants in this study. Further study of determinants of care seeking may help explain why persons who experience panic attacks fail to seek treatment or seek treatment from non-mental health sources.

Ageing of Insensitive DNAN Based Melt-Cast Explosives

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-08-01

diurnal cycle (representative of the MEAO climate). Analysis of the ingredient composition, sensitiveness, mechanical and thermal properties was...first test condition was chosen to provide a worst-case scenario. Analysis of the ingredient composition, theoretical maximum density, sensitiveness...5 4.1.1 ARX-4027 Ingredient Analysis .............................................................. 5 4.1.2 ARX-4028 Ingredient Analysis

Numerical modelling of vehicular pollution dispersion: The application of computational fluid dynamics techniques, a case study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vanderheyden, M.D.; Dajka, S.C.; Sinclair, R.

1997-12-31

Numerical modelling of vehicular emissions using the United States Environmental Protection Agency`s CALINE4 and CAL3QHC dispersion models to predict air quality impacts in the vicinity of roadways is a widely accepted means of evaluating vehicular emissions impacts. The numerical models account for atmospheric dispersion in both open or suburban terrains. When assessing roadways in urban areas with numerous large buildings, however, the models are unable to account for the complex airflows and therefore do not provide satisfactory estimates of pollutant concentrations. Either Wind Tunnel Modelling or Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) techniques can be used to assess the impact of vehiclemore » emissions in an urban core. This paper presents a case study where CFD is used to predict worst-case air quality impacts for two development configurations: an existing roadway configuration and a proposed configuration with an elevated pedestrian walkway. In assessing these configurations, worst-case meteorology and traffic conditions are modeled to allow for the prediction of pollutant concentrations due to vehicular emissions on two major streets in Hong Kong. The CFD modelling domain is divided up into thousands of control volumes. Each of these control volumes has a central point called a node where velocities, pollutant concentration and other auxiliary variables are calculated. The region of interest, the pedestrian link and its immediate surroundings, has a denser distribution of nodes in order to give a better resolution of local flow details. Separate CFD modelling runs were undertaken for each development configuration for wind direction increments of 15 degrees. For comparison of the development scenarios, pollutant concentrations (carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter) are predicted at up to 99 receptor nodes representing sensitive locations.« less

Scenario-Based Case Study Method and the Functionality of the Section Called "From Production to Consumption" from the Perspective of Primary School Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Taneri, Ahu

2018-01-01

In this research, the aim was showing the evaluation of students on scenario-based case study method and showing the functionality of the studied section called "from production to consumption". Qualitative research method and content analysis were used to reveal participants' experiences and reveal meaningful relations regarding…

Collective doses to man from dumping of radioactive waste in the Arctic Seas.

PubMed

Nielsen, S P; Iosjpe, M; Strand, P

1997-08-25

A box model for the dispersion of radionuclides in the marine environment covering the Arctic Ocean and the North Atlantic Ocean has been constructed. Collective doses from ingestion pathways have been calculated from unit releases of the radionuclides 3H, 60Co, 63Ni, 90Sr, 129I, 137Cs, 239Pu and 241Am into a fjord on the east coast of NovayaZemlya. The results show that doses for the shorter-lived radionuclides (e.g. 137Cs) are derived mainly from seafood production in the Barents Sea. Doses from the longer-lived radionuclides (e.g. 239Pu) are delivered through marine produce further away from the Arctic Ocean. Collective doses were calculated for two release scenarios, both of which are based on information of the dumping of radioactive waste in the Barents and Kara Seas by the former Soviet Union and on preliminary information from the International Arctic Sea Assessment Programme. A worst-case scenario was assumed according to which all radionuclides in liquid and solid radioactive waste were available for dispersion in the marine environment at the time of dumping. Release of radionuclides from spent nuclear fuel was assumed to take place by direct corrosion of the fuel ignoring the barriers that prevent direct contact between the fuel and the seawater. The second scenario selected assumed that releases of radionuclides from spent nuclear fuel do not occur until after failure of the protective barriers. All other liquid and solid radioactive waste was assumed to be available for dispersion at the time of discharge in both scenarios. The estimated collective dose for the worst-case scenario was about 9 manSv and that for the second scenario was about 3 manSv. In both cases, 137Cs is the radionuclide predicted to dominate the collective doses as well as the peak collective dose rates.

Groundwater contaminations and health perspectives in developing world case study: Gaza Strip.

PubMed

Shomar, B

2011-04-01

Groundwater is the only source of water in the Gaza Strip. The results of a 10-year monitoring program revealed that more than 90% of the available water is not suitable for drinking purposes as a result of elevated chemical contaminants as well as microbiological organisms. The archives of the local hospitals showed catastrophic records on diseases caused by water directly and indirectly. Methemoglobinemia and dental fluorosis are well-known diseases caused by elevated nitrate and fluoride, respectively. Water-borne diseases are currently high and will increase if water, sanitation, and food-control services are not restored, or are allowed to deteriorate further. Heavy use and misuse of banned and prohibited pesticides may show other hard diseases in the near future. Geography, politics, and war combine to make the Gaza Strip a worst-case scenario for water-resource planners. Urgent alternative water resources should be secured and the human health should be given the highest priority.

Adaptive scenarios: a training model for today's public health workforce.

PubMed

Uden-Holman, Tanya; Bedet, Jennifer; Walkner, Laurie; Abd-Hamid, Nor Hashidah

2014-01-01

With the current economic climate, money for training is scarce. In addition, time is a major barrier to participation in trainings. To meet the public health workforce's rising demand for training, while struggling with less time and fewer resources, the Upper Midwest Preparedness and Emergency Response Learning Center has developed a model of online training that provides the public health workforce with individually customized, needs-based training experiences. Adaptive scenarios are rooted in case-based reasoning, a learning approach that focuses on the specific knowledge needed to solve a problem. Proponents of case-based reasoning argue that learners benefit from being able to remember previous similar situations and reusing information and knowledge from that situation. Adaptive scenarios based on true-to-life job performance provide an opportunity to assess skills by presenting the user with choices to make in a problem-solving context. A team approach was used to develop the adaptive scenarios. Storylines were developed that incorporated situations aligning with the knowledge, skills, and attitudes outlined in the Public Health Preparedness and Response Core Competency Model. This article examines 2 adaptive scenarios: "Ready or Not? A Family Preparedness Scenario" and "Responding to a Crisis: Managing Emotions and Stress Scenario." The scenarios are available on Upper Midwest Preparedness and Emergency Response Learning Center's Learning Management System, the Training Source (http://training-source.org). Evaluation data indicate that users' experiences have been positive. Integrating the assessment and training elements of the scenarios so that the training experience is uniquely adaptive to each user is one of the most efficient ways to provide training. The opportunity to provide individualized, needs-based training without having to administer separate assessments has the potential to save time and resources. These adaptive scenarios continue to be

Designing, Developing and Implementing a Software Tool for Scenario Based Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Norton, Geoff; Taylor, Mathew; Stewart, Terry; Blackburn, Greg; Jinks, Audrey; Razdar, Bahareh; Holmes, Paul; Marastoni, Enrique

2012-01-01

The pedagogical value of problem-based and inquiry-based learning activities has led to increased use of this approach in many courses. While scenarios or case studies were initially presented to learners as text-based material, the development of modern software technology provides the opportunity to deliver scenarios as e-learning modules,…

Case Study: Influences of Uncertainties and Traffic Scenario Difficulties in a Human-in-the-Loop Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bienert, Nancy; Mercer, Joey; Homola, Jeffrey; Morey, Susan; Prevot, Thomas

2014-01-01

This paper presents a case study of how factors such as wind prediction errors and metering delays can influence controller performance and workload in Human-In-The-Loop simulations. Retired air traffic controllers worked two arrival sectors adjacent to the terminal area. The main tasks were to provide safe air traffic operations and deliver the aircraft to the metering fix within +/- 25 seconds of the scheduled arrival time with the help of provided decision support tools. Analyses explore the potential impact of metering delays and system uncertainties on controller workload and performance. The results suggest that trajectory prediction uncertainties impact safety performance, while metering fix accuracy and workload appear subject to the scenario difficulty.

Does extreme precipitation intensity depend on the emissions scenario?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pendergrass, Angeline; Lehner, Flavio; Sanderson, Benjamin; Xu, Yangyang

2016-04-01

The rate of increase of global-mean precipitation per degree surface temperature increase differs for greenhouse gas and aerosol forcings, and therefore depends on the change in composition of the emissions scenario used to drive climate model simulations for the remainder of the century. We investigate whether or not this is also the case for extreme precipitation simulated by a multi-model ensemble driven by four realistic emissions scenarios. In most models, the rate of increase of maximum annual daily rainfall per degree global warming in the multi-model ensemble is statistically indistinguishable across the four scenarios, whether this extreme precipitation is calculated globally, over all land, or over extra-tropical land. These results indicate that, in most models, extreme precipitation depends on the total amount of warming and does not depend on emissions scenario, in contrast to mean precipitation.

Sports Competition--Integrated or Segregated? Which Is Better for Your Child?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grosse, Susan J.

2008-01-01

Selecting competitive sports opportunities for a child is a challenging process. Parents have to make the right choices so that their young athletes will have many years of healthy, happy, active experiences. If parents make the wrong choices, their son or daughter will have, at the very least, a few unhappy hours, and worst-case scenario, could…

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

DOE PAGES

O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; ...

2016-09-28

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. Here, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide rangemore » of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. Furthermore, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2°C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. In order to serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

2016-01-01

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate amore » wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

2016-09-01

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit

Finite volume analysis of temperature effects induced by active MRI implants: 2. Defects on active MRI implants causing hot spots.

PubMed

Busch, Martin H J; Vollmann, Wolfgang; Grönemeyer, Dietrich H W

2006-05-26

Active magnetic resonance imaging implants, for example stents, stent grafts or vena cava filters, are constructed as wireless inductively coupled transmit and receive coils. They are built as a resonator tuned to the Larmor frequency of a magnetic resonance system. The resonator can be added to or incorporated within the implant. This technology can counteract the shielding caused by eddy currents inside the metallic implant structure. This may allow getting diagnostic information of the implant lumen (in stent stenosis or thrombosis for example). The electro magnetic rf-pulses during magnetic resonance imaging induce a current in the circuit path of the resonator. A by material fatigue provoked partial rupture of the circuit path or a broken wire with touching surfaces can set up a relatively high resistance on a very short distance, which may behave as a point-like power source, a hot spot, inside the body part the resonator is implanted to. This local power loss inside a small volume can reach (1/4) of the total power loss of the intact resonating circuit, which itself is proportional to the product of the resonator volume and the quality factor and depends as well from the orientation of the resonator with respect to the main magnetic field and the imaging sequence the resonator is exposed to. First an analytical solution of a hot spot for thermal equilibrium is described. This analytical solution with a definite hot spot power loss represents the worst case scenario for thermal equilibrium inside a homogeneous medium without cooling effects. Starting with this worst case assumptions additional conditions are considered in a numerical simulation, which are more realistic and may make the results less critical. The analytical solution as well as the numerical simulations use the experimental experience of the maximum hot spot power loss of implanted resonators with a definite volume during magnetic resonance imaging investigations. The finite volume analysis

Finite volume analysis of temperature effects induced by active MRI implants: 2. Defects on active MRI implants causing hot spots

PubMed Central

Busch, Martin HJ; Vollmann, Wolfgang; Grönemeyer, Dietrich HW

2006-01-01

Background Active magnetic resonance imaging implants, for example stents, stent grafts or vena cava filters, are constructed as wireless inductively coupled transmit and receive coils. They are built as a resonator tuned to the Larmor frequency of a magnetic resonance system. The resonator can be added to or incorporated within the implant. This technology can counteract the shielding caused by eddy currents inside the metallic implant structure. This may allow getting diagnostic information of the implant lumen (in stent stenosis or thrombosis for example). The electro magnetic rf-pulses during magnetic resonance imaging induce a current in the circuit path of the resonator. A by material fatigue provoked partial rupture of the circuit path or a broken wire with touching surfaces can set up a relatively high resistance on a very short distance, which may behave as a point-like power source, a hot spot, inside the body part the resonator is implanted to. This local power loss inside a small volume can reach ¼ of the total power loss of the intact resonating circuit, which itself is proportional to the product of the resonator volume and the quality factor and depends as well from the orientation of the resonator with respect to the main magnetic field and the imaging sequence the resonator is exposed to. Methods First an analytical solution of a hot spot for thermal equilibrium is described. This analytical solution with a definite hot spot power loss represents the worst case scenario for thermal equilibrium inside a homogeneous medium without cooling effects. Starting with this worst case assumptions additional conditions are considered in a numerical simulation, which are more realistic and may make the results less critical. The analytical solution as well as the numerical simulations use the experimental experience of the maximum hot spot power loss of implanted resonators with a definite volume during magnetic resonance imaging investigations. The finite

The Effectiveness of Remotely Piloted Aircraft in a Permissive Hunter-Killer Scenario

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-01-01

APY -8, Lynx Block 20. 20 Specific Scenario In our scenario, prior intelligence has indicated that the target is likely to emerge from hiding...an additional 5 sec. must be taken to transfer (digitally) the target geolocation data to the strike platform. (Unlike in Case 1, it was not

Mr. Ngao's proposal: introducing client fees. Case scenarios for training and group discussion.

PubMed

1992-01-01

In this supplement to the issue of "The Family Planning Manager" devoted to fees, a hypothetical case scenario is presented to illustrate the introduction of client fees to a family planning program. Managers are instructed to prepare a plan that includes the necessary information for deciding what to charge for, who to charge, and how much to charge; identifies the administrative changes involved in charging fees; and outlines steps that clinic managers should take before introducing client fees. Decisions should be based on factors such as the objectives of fee charging, client willingness and ability to pay, client perception of the quality of current services, services for which clients would be most willing to pay, estimated cost of providing services, and the cost of new administrative procedures inherent in a fee-for-service approach. Administrative procedures for collecting, handling, and accounting for cash; reporting income and expenses; and implementing a fair and flexible system of waivers and exemptions must be defined. Clients should be informed well in advance of fee introduction, and staff trained to manage potential client complaints.

Dying scenarios improve recall as much as survival scenarios.

PubMed

Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Kramer, Melanie E

2014-01-01

Merely contemplating one's death improves retention for entirely unrelated material learned subsequently. This "dying to remember" effect seems conceptually related to the survival processing effect, whereby processing items for their relevance to being stranded in the grasslands leads to recall superior to that of other deep processing control conditions. The present experiments directly compared survival processing scenarios with "death processing" scenarios. Results showed that when the survival and dying scenarios are closely matched on key dimensions, and possible congruency effects are controlled, the dying and survival scenarios produced equivalently high recall levels. We conclude that the available evidence (cf. Bell, Roer, & Buchner, 2013; Klein, 2012), while not definitive, is consistent with the possibility of overlapping mechanisms.

Changes in land cover and carbon emissions to 2050 from African tropical forests using policy scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laporte, N.; Galford, G. L.; Soares Filho, B. S.

2011-12-01

Africa has the second largest block of rainforest in the world, next to the Amazon basin, with the majority of the carbon being stored in the dense humid forests of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Historically, political instability in the DRC kept development and deforestation low, with primary forest uses being extensive logging and small scale agriculture. In the last decade, political stability has opened the country to foreign investment in forested areas, largely for industrial-scale oil palm plantations and more recently to rice production. The DRC ranks worst on the IFPRI global hunger index, scoring "extremely serious" based on the proportion of undernourished population, prevalence of underweight in children under 5 and the mortality rates of children under 5. In fact, DRC saw its hunger score increase (worsen) from 1990 to 2010, with a 66% gain compared to the other 8 worsening countries increasing only 21% or less. This is a critical time for policy in the DRC, where business-as-usual (relatively low deforestation rates) is unlikely to continue given today's relative political stability and economic stabilization compared to the 1990s. The country must examine options for forest conservation in balance with foreign investment for use of forest resources, national development of rural livelihoods and domestic production of food. Here we present deforestation trajectories simulated through the year 2050 under a set of scenarios. The scenarios consider the relative carbon emissions from business-as-usual (no new policy), conservation (policy favoring protection and enforcement for forest areas), and a food security scenario (favoring clearing for industrial agriculture, extractive timber resources and development of new agricultural areas). Carbon emissions for each scenario are estimated with a coupled bookkeeping model. These scenarios are not predictive of the future, rather, they are meant to provide an understanding of the outcomes of

Using Scenarios and Simulations to Plan Colleges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McIntyre, Chuck

2004-01-01

Using a case study, this article describes a method by which higher education institutions construct and use multiple future scenarios and simulations to plan strategically: to create visions of their futures, chart broad directions (mission and goals), and select learning and delivery strategies so as to achieve those broad directions. The…

Alice’s Delirium: A Theatre-based Simulation Scenario for Nursing

PubMed Central

Posner, Glenn D

2018-01-01

As an educational methodology, simulation has been used by nursing education at the academic level for numerous years and has started to gain traction in the onboarding education and professional development of practicing nurses. Simulation allows the learner to apply knowledge and skills in a safe environment where mistakes and learning can happen without an impact on patient safety. The development of a simulation scenario to demonstrate the benefits of simulation education methodologies to a large group of nurse educators was requested by nursing education leadership at The Ottawa Hospital (TOH). Since the demonstration of this scenario in the fall of 2016, there has been significant uptake and adaptation of this particular scenario within the nursing education departments of TOH. Originally written to be used with a simulated patient (SP), “Alice” has since been adapted to be used with a hi-fidelity manikin within an inpatient surgery department continuing professional development (CPD) program for practicing nurses, orientation for nurses to a level 2 trauma unit and at the corporate level of nursing orientation using an SP. Therefore, this scenario is applicable to nurses practicing in an area of inpatient surgery at varying levels, from novice to expert. It could easily be adapted for use with medicine nursing education programs. The case presented in this technical report is of the simulation scenario used for the inpatient surgery CPD program. Varying adaptations of the case are included in the appendices. PMID:29872592

Evidence and future scenarios of a low-carbon energy transition in Central America: a case study in Nicaragua

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barido, Diego Ponce de Leon; Johnston, Josiah; Moncada, Maria V.; Callaway, Duncan; Kammen, Daniel M.

2015-10-01

The global carbon emissions budget over the next decades depends critically on the choices made by fast-growing emerging economies. Few studies exist, however, that develop country-specific energy system integration insights that can inform emerging economies in this decision-making process. High spatial- and temporal-resolution power system planning is central to evaluating decarbonization scenarios, but obtaining the required data and models can be cost prohibitive, especially for researchers in low, lower-middle income economies. Here, we use Nicaragua as a case study to highlight the importance of high-resolution open access data and modeling platforms to evaluate fuel-switching strategies and their resulting cost of power under realistic technology, policy, and cost scenarios (2014-2030). Our results suggest that Nicaragua could cost-effectively achieve a low-carbon grid (≥80%, based on non-large hydro renewable energy generation) by 2030 while also pursuing multiple development objectives. Regional cooperation (balancing) enables the highest wind and solar generation (18% and 3% by 2030, respectively), at the least cost (US127 MWh-1). Potentially risky resources (geothermal and hydropower) raise system costs but do not significantly hinder decarbonization. Oil price sensitivity scenarios suggest renewable energy to be a more cost-effective long-term investment than fuel oil, even under the assumption of prevailing cheap oil prices. Nicaragua’s options illustrate the opportunities and challenges of power system decarbonization for emerging economies, and the key role that open access data and modeling platforms can play in helping develop low-carbon transition pathways.

When the Topic Turns to Sex: CASE SCENARIOS IN SEXUAL COUNSELING AND CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE.

PubMed

Steinke, Elaine E; Johansen, Pernille Palm; Dusenbury, Wendy

2016-01-01

Patients with cardiovascular disease and their partners frequently have concerns about sexual intimacy, and sexual counseling is needed across health care settings to ensure that patients receive information to safely resume sexual activity. The purpose of this review is to provide practical, evidence-based approaches to enable health care providers to discuss sexual counseling, illustrated by several case scenarios. Evidence shows that patients expect health care providers to initiate sexual activity discussions, although providers may be hesitant and often rely on patients to ask questions. Although some providers cite lack of knowledge or confidence in their ability to provide sexual counseling, others mention time pressures in the clinical setting. Although such barriers exist, sexual counseling can be individualized to the cardiac condition of a patient with a few select questions. The representative examples of patients with angina pectoris, myocardial infarction, coronary artery bypass surgery, heart failure, and implantable cardioverter defibrillator are used to illustrate key points and provide a model for sexual counseling in practice.

Anticipatory Water Management in Phoenix using Advanced Scenario Planning and Analyses: WaterSim 5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sampson, D. A.; Quay, R.; White, D. D.; Gober, P.; Kirkwood, C.

2013-12-01

Complexity, uncertainty, and variability are inherent properties of linked social and natural processes; sustainable resource management must somehow consider all three. Typically, a decision support tool (using scenario analyses) is used to examine management alternatives under suspected trajectories in driver variables (i.e., climate forcing's, growth or economic projections, etc.). This traditional planning focuses on a small set of envisioned scenarios whose outputs are compared against one-another in order to evaluate their differing impacts on desired metrics. Human cognition typically limits this to three to five scenarios. However, complex and highly uncertain issues may require more, often much more, than five scenarios. In this case advanced scenario analysis provides quantitative or qualitative methods that can reveal patterns and associations among scenario metrics for a large ensemble of scenarios. From this analysis, then, a smaller set of heuristics that describe the complexity and uncertainty revealed provides a basis to guide planning in an anticipatory fashion. Our water policy and management model, termed WaterSim, permits advanced scenario planning and analysis for the Phoenix Metropolitan Area. In this contribution we examine the concepts of advanced scenario analysis on a large scale ensemble of scenarios using our work with WaterSim as a case study. For this case study we created a range of possible water futures by creating scenarios that encompasses differences in water supplies (our surrogates for climate change, drought, and inherent variability in riverine flows), population growth, and per capital water consumption. We used IPCC estimates of plausible, future, alterations in riverine runoff, locally produced and vetted estimates of population growth projections, and empirical trends in per capita water consumption for metropolitan cities. This ensemble consisted of ~ 30, 700 scenarios (~575 k observations). We compared and contrasted

EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

2008-12-01

Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants

Design and Analysis of the Warm-To Suspension Links for Jefferson Lab's 11 Gev/c Super High Momentum Spectrometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, E.; Brindza, P.; Lassiter, S.; Fowler, M.

2010-04-01

This paper describes design and analysis performed for the warm-to-cold suspension links of the warm iron yoke superconducting quadrupole magnets, and superconducting dipole magnet. The results of investigation of titanium Ti-6Al-4V and Nitronic 50 stainless steel for the suspension links to support the cold mass, preloads, forces due to cryogenic temperature, and imbalanced magnetic forces from misalignments are presented. Allowable stresses at normal-case scenarios and worst-case scenarios, space constraints, and heat leak considerations are discussed. Principles of the ASME Pressure Vessel Code were used to determine allowable stresses. Optimal angles of the suspension links were obtained by calculation and finite element methods. The stress levels of suspension links at multiple scenarios are presented, discussed, and compared with the allowable stresses.

Modelling the Growth of Swine Flu

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thomson, Ian

2010-01-01

The spread of swine flu has been a cause of great concern globally. With no vaccine developed as yet, (at time of writing in July 2009) and given the fact that modern-day humans can travel speedily across the world, there are fears that this disease may spread out of control. The worst-case scenario would be one of unfettered exponential growth.…

CTE Delivers Leaders

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Magnuson, Peter

2013-01-01

Imagine a football team without a quarterback. Imagine a ship without a captain. Imagine a kitchen without a chef. Right now, you are probably running a number of worst-case scenarios through your head: a losing season; a ship adrift; some not-so-tasty cookies. The reason your mind has conjured up these end results is because in each of these…

The Oklahoma ice storm, a Y2K disaster that arrived one year later--how two rural hospitals coped and what they learned.

PubMed

2001-05-01

An unexpected ice storm last December in southeastern Oklahoma cut off power and water for days in the area and punched holes in the disaster plans of the two hospitals most affected. In this report, hospital officials describe how they fared and tell what they will do in the future to be better prepared for such a worst-case scenario.

The conservation of diversity in forest trees

Treesearch

F. Thomas Ledig

1988-01-01

Deforestation, pollution, and climatic change threaten forest diversity all over the world. And because forests are the habitats for diverse organisms, the threat is extended to all the flora and fauna associated with forests, not only forest trees. In a worst case scenario, if the tropical forest in Latin America was reduced to the areas now set aside in parks and...

Understanding Land System Change Through Scenario-Based Simulations: A Case Study from the Drylands in Northern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zhifeng; Verburg, Peter H.; Wu, Jianguo; He, Chunyang

2017-03-01

The drylands in northern China are expected to face dramatic land system change in the context of socioeconomic development and environmental conservation. Recent studies have addressed changes of land cover with socioeconomic development in the drylands in northern China. However, the changes in land use intensity and the potential role of environmental conservation measures have yet to be adequately examined. Given the importance of land management intensity to the ecological conditions and regional sustainability, our study projected land system change in Hohhot city in the drylands in northern China from 2013 to 2030. Here, land systems are defined as combinations of land cover and land use intensity. Using the CLUMondo model, we simulated land system change in Hohhot under three scenarios: a scenario following historical trends, a scenario with strong socioeconomic and land use planning, and a scenario focused on achieving environmental conservation targets. Our results showed that Hohhot is likely to experience agricultural intensification and urban growth under all three scenarios. The agricultural intensity and the urban growth rate were much higher under the historical trend scenario compared to those with more planning interventions. The dynamics of grasslands depend strongly on projections of livestock and other claims on land resources. In the historical trend scenario, intensively grazed grasslands increase whereas a large amount of the current area of grasslands with livestock converts to forest under the scenario with strong planning. Strong conversion from grasslands with livestock and extensive cropland to semi-natural grasslands was estimated under the conservation scenario. The findings provide an input into discussions about environmental management, planning and sustainable land system design for Hohhot.

Scenario generation for stochastic optimization problems via the sparse grid method

DOE PAGES

Chen, Michael; Mehrotra, Sanjay; Papp, David

2015-04-19

We study the use of sparse grids in the scenario generation (or discretization) problem in stochastic programming problems where the uncertainty is modeled using a continuous multivariate distribution. We show that, under a regularity assumption on the random function involved, the sequence of optimal objective function values of the sparse grid approximations converges to the true optimal objective function values as the number of scenarios increases. The rate of convergence is also established. We treat separately the special case when the underlying distribution is an affine transform of a product of univariate distributions, and show how the sparse grid methodmore » can be adapted to the distribution by the use of quadrature formulas tailored to the distribution. We numerically compare the performance of the sparse grid method using different quadrature rules with classic quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods, optimal rank-one lattice rules, and Monte Carlo (MC) scenario generation, using a series of utility maximization problems with up to 160 random variables. The results show that the sparse grid method is very efficient, especially if the integrand is sufficiently smooth. In such problems the sparse grid scenario generation method is found to need several orders of magnitude fewer scenarios than MC and QMC scenario generation to achieve the same accuracy. As a result, it is indicated that the method scales well with the dimension of the distribution--especially when the underlying distribution is an affine transform of a product of univariate distributions, in which case the method appears scalable to thousands of random variables.« less

Willingness to pay for midwife-endorsed product: An Australian best-worst study.

PubMed

Lahtinen, Ville; Rundle-Thiele, Sharyn; Adamsen, Jannie Mia

2016-01-01

This article examined the impact of midwife endorsement on stated choice preferences in one of the highest volume baby care product categories, diapers. An online survey was conducted testing 12 alternatives of which six were midwife endorsed. A total of 215 responses were analyzed using best-worst and multinomial logit modeling. Results indicate that package size, price, and brand are more sensitive predictors of stated choice preferences than midwife endorsement. Respondents were willing to pay 2.3% more for a diaper that was endorsed by midwives. These findings suggest that midwife endorsement should be pursued by health marketers.

Community-based field implementation scenarios of a short message service reporting tool for lymphatic filariasis case estimates in Africa and Asia.

PubMed

Mableson, Hayley E; Martindale, Sarah; Stanton, Michelle C; Mackenzie, Charles; Kelly-Hope, Louise A

2017-01-01

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a neglected tropical disease (NTD) targeted for global elimination by 2020. Currently there is considerable international effort to scale-up morbidity management activities in endemic countries, however there remains a need for rapid, cost-effective methods and adaptable tools for obtaining estimates of people presenting with clinical manifestations of LF, namely lymphoedema and hydrocele. The mHealth tool ' MeasureSMS-Morbidity ' allows health workers in endemic areas to use their own mobile phones to send clinical information in a simple format using short message service (SMS). The experience gained through programmatic use of the tool in five endemic countries across a diversity of settings in Africa and Asia is used here to present implementation scenarios that are suitable for adapting the tool for use in a range of different programmatic, endemic, demographic and health system settings. A checklist of five key factors and sub-questions was used to determine and define specific community-based field implementation scenarios for using the MeasureSMS-Morbidity tool in a range of settings. These factors included: (I) tool feasibility (acceptability; community access and ownership); (II) LF endemicity (high; low prevalence); (III) population demography (urban; rural); (IV) health system structure (human resources; community access); and (V) integration with other diseases (co-endemicity). Based on experiences in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Malawi, Nepal and Tanzania, four implementation scenarios were identified as suitable for using the MeasureSMS-Morbidity tool for searching and reporting LF clinical case data across a range of programmatic, endemic, demographic and health system settings. These include: (I) urban, high endemic setting with two-tier reporting; (II) rural, high endemic setting with one-tier reporting; (III) rural, high endemic setting with two-tier reporting; and (IV) low-endemic, urban and rural setting with one

Environmental risk assessment of three selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors in the aquatic environment: a case study including a cocktail scenario.

PubMed

Styrishave, Bjarne; Halling-Sørensen, Bent; Ingerslev, Flemming

2011-01-01

We present an environmental risk assessment of three selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs; citalopram, sertraline, and fluoxetine) in the aquatic environment based on two case scenarios. Abiotic and biotic degradation experiments and sorption estimates were used to predict environmental concentrations of three SSRIs from the wastewater of two psychiatric hospitals, the primary sector, and wastewater entering and leaving wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). Assuming a sewage treatment retention time of 8 h, abiotic degradation was low, for all three SSRIs inhibitors, ranging between 0 and 2% for hydrolysis and 0 and 6% for photolysis. The biodegradation was also slow, ranging from 0 to 3% within an 8-h period. In untreated sewage, citalopram (CIT) and sertraline (SER) concentrations may be high enough to exert effects on the aquatic biota (CIT: 0.19-10.3 µg/L; SER: 0.14-17.1 µg/L). Removal of the pharmaceuticals is due primarily to sorption in the WWTP. Sertraline was estimated to have the highest concentrations in the sewage effluents, 4.4 and 19.9 ng/L for the two cases, respectively. In treated wastewater, individual SSRI concentrations are probably too low to exert effects on biota. By using concentration addition, a cocktail exposure scenario was estimated. The predicted concentration in the biota calculated from the cocktail effect was 0.05 and 0.16 nmol/g for the two cases, respectively, and SER was found to give the highest contribution to this cocktail effect. The results indicate that the concentrations in the wastewater effluents are one to two orders of magnitude lower than the concentrations likely to cause an effect in the aquatic biota. © 2010 SETAC.

Simulation supported scenario analysis for water resources planning: a case study in northern italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Facchi, A.; Gandolfi, C.; Ortuani, B.; Maggi, D.

2003-04-01

The work presents the results of a comprehensive modelling study of surface and groundwater systems, including the interaction between irrigation and groundwater resources, for the Muzza-Bassa Lodigiana irrigation district, placed in the southern part of the densely-settled Lombardia plain (northern Italy). The area, of approximately 700 km2, has been selected as: a) it is representative of agricultural and irrigation practices in a wide portion of the plain of Lombardia; b) it has well defined hydrogeological borders, represented by the Adda, Po, and Lambro rivers (respectively East, South and West) and by the Muzza canal (North). The objective of the study is to assess the impact of land use and irrigation water availability on the distribution of crop water consumption in space and time, as well as on the groundwater resources in this wide portion of the Lombardia plain. To achieve this goal, a number of realistic management scenarios, currently under discussion with the regional water authority, have been taken into account. A standard 'base case' has been defined to allow comparative analysis of the results of different scenarios. To carry out the research, an integrated, distributed, catchment-scale simulation package, already developed and applied to the study area, has been used. The simulation system is based on the integration of two hydrological models - a conceptual vadose zone model and the groundwater model MODFLOW. An interface performs the explicit coupling in space and time between the two models. A GIS manages all the information relevant to the study area, as well as all the input, the spatially distributed parameters and the output of the system. The simulation package has been verified for the years 1999-2000 using land use derived from remote-sensed images, reported water availability for irrigation, observed water stage in rivers as well as groundwater level in the alluvial aquifer system.

Sudden early-morning awakening impairs immediate tactical planning in a changing 'emergency' scenario.

PubMed

Horne, Jim; Moseley, Robert

2011-06-01

This was a realistic military-type exercise assessing unexpected, abrupt early-morning awakening effects on immediate 'executive function' and the ability to comprehend and deal with a sudden emergency under a changing situation. Twenty (average age 21years) healthy, highly motivated junior officer reservists were assigned randomly to two equal, independent groups, unforewarned as to what would happen. The experimental group was woken abruptly at 03:00h (<3h sleep) and confronted immediately with a 'paper exercise' of an enemy attack, requiring a feasible plan of engagement with minimal loss of resources, to be completed within 15min. A control group slept until 07:30h; they were then presented with the identical emergency 1h later. Participants worked individually, under time pressure, receiving written information, map and other details, all containing relevant, irrelevant and misleading information. Halfway through, they were given (unexpectedly) a critical update necessitating a change of tactics. Performance was scored blind by instructors, under five categories. Eight of the experimental group versus three controls failed overall, with significant group differences on three specific categories relying on flexible decision-making: 'identification of available cover', 'use of available assets' and 'extraction of relevant from irrelevant information'. Other, logical and highly trained skills were unimpaired. Ours was a 'worst case scenario', combining short sleep, circadian 'trough' and sleep inertia, all of which differentiated the two groups, unlike typical laboratory studies. Nevertheless, it was relevant to real-life situations involving highly motivated, trained individuals making critical innovative decisions in the early morning versus the normal waking day. © 2010 European Sleep Research Society.

Future groundwater extraction scenarios for an aquifer in a semiarid environment: case study of Guadalupe Valley Aquifer, Baja California, Northwest Mexico.

PubMed

Campos-Gaytan, Jose Ruben; Kretzschmar, Thomas; Herrera-Oliva, Claudia Soledad

2014-11-01

Semiarid northwestern Mexico presents a growing water demand produced by agricultural and domestic requirements during the last two decades. The community of Guadalupe Valley and the city of Ensenada rely on groundwater pumping from the local aquifer as its sole source of water supply. This dependency has resulted in an imbalance between groundwater pumpage and natural recharge. A two-dimensional groundwater flow model was applied to the Guadalupe Valley Aquifer, which was calibrated and validated for the period 1984-2005. The model analysis verified that groundwater levels in the region are subject to steep declines due to decades of intensive groundwater exploitation for agricultural and domestic purposes. The calibrated model was used to assess the effects of different water management scenarios for the period 2007-2025. If the base case (status quo) scenario continues, groundwater levels are in a continuous drawdown trend. Some wells would run dry by August 2017, and water demand may not be met without incurring in an overdraft. The optimistic scenario implies the achievement of the mean groundwater recharge and discharge. Groundwater level depletion could be stopped and restored. The sustainable scenario implies the reduction of current extraction (up to about 50 %), when groundwater level depletion could be stopped. A reduction in current extraction mitigates water stress in the aquifer but cannot solely reverse declining water tables across the region. The combination of reduced current extraction and an implemented alternative solution (such as groundwater artificial recharge), provides the most effective measure to stabilize and reverse declining groundwater levels while meeting water demands in the region.

Interpreting energy scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

2018-05-01

Quantitative scenarios from energy-economic models inform decision-making about uncertain futures. Now, research shows the different ways these scenarios are subsequently used by users not involved in their initial development. In the absence of clear guidance from modellers, users may place too much or too little confidence in scenario assumptions and results.

What's good and bad about contraceptive products?: a best-worst attribute experiment comparing the values of women consumers and GPs.

PubMed

Knox, Stephanie A; Viney, Rosalie C; Street, Deborah J; Haas, Marion R; Fiebig, Denzil G; Weisberg, Edith; Bateson, Deborah

2012-12-01

In the past decade, the range of contraceptives available has increased dramatically. There are limited data on the factors that determine women's choices on contraceptive alternatives or what factors providers consider most important when recommending contraceptive products to women. Our objectives were to compare women's (consumers') preferences and GPs' (providers') views in relation to existing and new contraceptive methods, and particularly to examine what factors increase the acceptability of different contraceptive products. A best-worst attribute stated-choice experiment was completed online. Participants (Australian women of reproductive age and Australian GPs) completed questions on 16 contraceptive profiles. 200 women of reproductive age were recruited through a commercial panel. GPs from all states of Australia were randomly sampled and approached by phone; 162 GPs agreed to participate. Participants chose the best and worst attribute levels of hypothetical but realistic prescribed contraceptive products. Best and worst choices were modelled using multinomial logit and product features were ranked from best to worst according to the size of model coefficients. The most attractive feature of the contraceptive products for both GPs and women consumers were an administration frequency of longer than 1 year and light or no bleeding. Women indicated that the hormonal vaginal ring was the least attractive mode of administration. Women and GPs agree that longer-acting methods with less bleeding are important features in preferred methods of contraception; however, women are also attracted to products involving less invasive modes of administration. While the vaginal ring may fill the niche in Australia for a relatively non-invasive, moderately long-acting and effective contraceptive, the results of this study indicate that GPs will need to promote the benefits of the vaginal ring to overcome negative perceptions about this method among women who may benefit

Comparison of 2 resident learning tools-interactive screen-based simulated case scenarios versus problem-based learning discussions: a prospective quasi-crossover cohort study.

PubMed

Rajan, Shobana; Khanna, Ashish; Argalious, Maged; Kimatian, Stephen J; Mascha, Edward J; Makarova, Natalya; Nada, Eman M; Elsharkawy, Hesham; Firoozbakhsh, Farhad; Avitsian, Rafi

2016-02-01

Simulation-based learning is emerging as an alternative educational tool in this era of a relative shortfall of teaching anesthesiologists. The objective of the study is to assess whether screen-based (interactive computer simulated) case scenarios are more effective than problem-based learning discussions (PBLDs) in improving test scores 4 and 8 weeks after these interventions in anesthesia residents during their first neuroanesthesia rotation. Prospective, nonblinded quasi-crossover study. Cleveland Clinic. Anesthesiology residents. Two case scenarios were delivered from the Anesoft software as screen-based sessions, and parallel scripts were developed for 2 PBLDs. Each resident underwent both types of training sessions, starting with the PBLD session, and the 2 cases were alternated each month (ie, in 1 month, the screen-based intervention used case 1 and the PBLD used case 2, and vice versa for the next month). Test scores before the rotation (baseline), immediately after the rotation (4 weeks after the start of the rotation), and 8 weeks after the start of rotation were collected on each topic from each resident. The effect of training method on improvement in test scores was assessed using a linear mixed-effects model. Compared to the departmental standard of PBLD, the simulation method did not improve either the 4- or 8-week mean test scores (P = .41 and P = .40 for training method effect on 4- and 8-week scores, respectively). Resident satisfaction with the simulation module on a 5-point Likert scale showed subjective evidence of a positive impact on resident education. Screen-based simulators were not more effective than PBLD for education during the neuroanesthesia rotation in anesthesia residency. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Head injury causation scenarios for belted, rear-seated children in frontal impacts.

PubMed

Bohman, Katarina; Arbogast, Kristy B; Bostrom, Ola

2011-02-01

Head injuries are the most common serious injuries sustained by children in motor vehicle crashes and are of critical importance with regard to long-term disability. There is a lack of understanding of how seat belt-restrained children sustain head injuries in frontal impacts. The aim of the study was to identify the AIS2+ head injury causation scenarios for rear-seated, belt-restrained children in frontal impacts, including the set of parameters contributing to the injury. In-depth crash investigations from two National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) databases, the National Automotive Sampling System-Crashworthiness Data System (NASS-CDS; 1997-2008) and the Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network (CIREN; 1996-2009), were collected and analyzed in detail. Selection criteria were all frontal impacts with principal direction of force (PDOF) of 11, 12, and 1 o'clock involving rear-seated, three-point belt-restrained, with or without booster cushion, children from 3 to 13 years with an AIS2+ head injury. Cases were analyzed using the BioTab method of injury causation assessment in order to systematically analyze the injury causation scenario for each case. There were 27 cases meeting the inclusion criteria, 19 cases with MAIS2 head injuries and 8 cases with MAIS3+ head injuries, including 2 fatalities. Three major injury causation scenarios were identified, including head contact with seatback (10 cases), head contact with side interior (7 cases,) and no evidence of head contact (9 cases). Head injuries with seatback or side interior contact typically included a PDOF greater than 10 degree (similar to the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety [IIHS] and EuroNCAP offset frontal testing) and vehicle maneuvers. For seatback contact, the vehicle's movements contributed to occupant kinematics inboard the vehicle, causing a less than optimal restraint of the torso and/or torso roll out of the shoulder belt. For side interior contact, the PDOF and

Impacts of fertilizer additions on water quality of a drained pine plantation in North Carolina. A worst case scenario.

Treesearch

Bray J. Beltran; Devendra M. Amatya; Martin Jones; R. Wayne Skaggs; William Neal P.E. Reynolds; Timothy J. Callahan; Jami E. Nettles

2008-01-01

Intensive plantation forestry will be increasingly important in the next 50 years to meet the high demand for domestic wood in the US. However, forestry management practices can substantially influence downstream water quality and ecology. In this study, the effect of fertilization on drainage water quality of a coastal pine plantation located in Carteret County, NC...

Impacts of fertilizer additions on water quality of a drained pine plantation in North Carolina. A worst case scenario.

Treesearch

Bray J. Beltran; Devendra M. Amatya; Martin Jones; R. Wayne Skaggs; William Neal Reynolds; Timothy J. Callahan; Jami E. Nettles

2008-01-01

Abstract. Intensive plantation forestry will be increasingly important in the next 50 years to meet the high demand for domestic wood in the US. However, forestry management practices can substantially influence downstream water quality and ecology. In this study, the effect of fertilization on drainage water quality of a coastal pine plantation located in Carteret...

Estimating Losses from Volcanic Ash in case of a Mt. Baekdu Eruption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Soonyoung; Yoon, Seong-Min; Kim, Sung-Wook; Choi, Eun-Kyeong

2014-05-01

We will present the preliminary result of economic losses in South Korea in case of a Mt. Baedu eruption. The Korean peninsula has Mt. Baekdu in North Korea, which will soon enter an active phase, according to volcanologists. The anticipated eruption will be explosive given the viscous and grassy silica-rich magma, and is expected to be one of the largest in recent millennia. We aim to assess the impacts of this eruption to South Korea and help government prepare for the volcanic disasters. In particular, the economic impact from volcanic ash is estimated given the distance from Mt. Baedu to South Korea. In order to scientifically estimate losses from volcanic ash, we need volcanic ash thickness, inventory database, and damage functions between ash thickness and damage ratios for each inventory item. We use the volcanic ash thickness calculated by other research groups in Korea, and they estimated the ash thickness for each eruption scenario using average wind fields. Damage functions are built using the historical damage data in the world, and inventory database is obtained from available digital maps in Korea. According to the preliminary results, the economic impact from volcanic ash is not significant because the ash is rarely deposited in South Korea under general weather conditions. However, the ash can impact human health and environment. Also worst case scenarios can have the significant economic impacts in Korea, and may result in global issues. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by a grant [NEMA-BAEKDUSAN-2012-1-3] from the Volcanic Disaster Preparedness Research Center sponsored by National Emergency Management Agency of Korea.

The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pitcher, Hugh M.

2009-04-01

In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

Multi-Scenario Use Case based Demonstration of Buildings Cybersecurity Framework Webtool

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gourisetti, Sri Nikhil G.; Mylrea, Michael E.; Gervais, Easton L.

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the cybersecurity and software capabilities of Buildings Cybersecurity Framework (BCF) webtool. The webtool is designed based on BCF document and existing NIST standards. It’s capabilities and features are depicted through a building usecase with four different investment scenarios geared towards improving the cybersecurity posture of the building. BCF webtool also facilitates implementation of the goals outlined in Presidential Executive Order (EO) on Strengthening the Cybersecurity of Federal Networks and Critical Infrastructure (May 2017. In realization of the EO goals, BCF includes five core elements: Identify, Protect, Detect, Respond, and Recover, to helpmore » determine various policy and process level vulnerabilities and provide mitigation strategies. With the BCF webtool, an organization can perform a cybersecurity self-assessment; determine the current cybersecurity posture; define investment based goals to achieve a target state; connect the cybersecurity posture with business processes, functions, and continuity; and finally, develop plans to answer critical organizational cybersecurity questions. In this paper, the webtool and its core capabilities are depicted by performing an extensive comparative assessment over four different scenarios.« less

Morphometric and Molecular Analyses of the Sand Fly Species Lutzomyia shannoni (Dyar 1929) (Diptera:Psychodidae:Phlebotiminae) Collected from Seven Different Geographical Areas in the Southeastern United States

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-07-05

an infection cycle becoming established in other hosts such as rodents and/or dogs. A hypothetical worst case scenario would unfold as 14...training exercises, family camp-outs, hiking, fishing, etc. The sand flies then vector the parasite to the rodent population during subsequent blood...feeds. The infection becomes locally established and maintained in the natural rodent population with sustained enzootic cycles that periodically

Projecting Changes in S. Florida Rainfall for the 21st century: Scenarios, Downscaling and Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cioffi, F.; Lall, U.; Monti, A.

2013-12-01

A Non-Homogeneous hidden Markov Models (NHMM) is developed using a 65-years record (1948-2012) of daily rainfall amount at nineteen stations in South Florida and re-analysis atmospheric fields of Temperature (T) at 1000 hPa, Geo Potential Height (GPH) at 1000 hPa, Meridional Winds (MW) and Zonal Winds (ZW) at 850 hPa, and Zonal Winds on the specific latitude of 27N (ZW27N) from 10 to 1000 hPa. The NHMM fitted is then used for predicting future rainfall patterns under global warming scenario (RCP8.5), using predictors from the CMCC-CMS simulations from 1950-2100. The model directly includes a consideration of seasonality through changes in the driving variables thus addressing the question of how future changes in seasonality of precipitation can also be modeled. The results of the simulations obtained by using the downscaling model NHMM, with predictors derived from the simulations of CMCC-CMS CGM, in the worst conditions of global warming as simulated by RCP8.5 scenario, seems to indicate that, as a consequence of increase of CO2 concentration and temperature, South Florida should be subjected to more frequent dry conditions for the most part of the year, due mainly to a reduction of number of wet days and, at the same time, the territory should be also affected by extreme rainfall events that are more intense than the present ones. What appears from results is an increases of rainfall variability. This scenario seems coherent with the trends of rainfall patterns observed in the XX century. An investigation on the causes of such hydrologic changes, and specifically on the role of North Atlantic Subtropical High is pursued.

Geographically explicit urban land use change scenarios for Mega cities: a case study in Tokyo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamagata, Y.; Bagan, H.; Seya, H.; Nakamichi, K.

2010-12-01

In preparation for the IPCC 5th assessment report, the international modeling community is developing four Representative Concentration Paths employing the scenarios developed by four different Integrated Assessment Models. These RCPs will be employed as an input to climate models, such as Earth System Models. In these days, the importance of assessment of not only global but also local (city/zone level) impacts of global change has gradually been recognized, thereby downscaling climate models are one of the urgent problems to be solved. Needless to say, reliable downscaling requires spatially high resolution land use change scenarios. So far, there has been proposed a lot of methods for constructing land use change scenarios with considering economic behavior of human, such as agent-based model (e.g., Parker et al., 2001), and land use transport (LUT) model (e.g., Anas and Liu, 2007). The latter approach in particular has widely been applied to actual urban/transport policy; hence modeling the interaction between them is very important for creating reliable land use change scenarios. However, the LUT models are usually built based on the zones of cities/municipalities whose spatial resolutions are too low to derive sensible parameters of the climate models. Moreover, almost all of the works which attempt to build spatially high resolution LUT model employs very small regions as the study area. The objective of this research is deriving various input parameters to climate models such as population density, fractional green vegetation cover, and anthropogenic heat emission with spatially high resolution land use change scenarios constructed with LUT model. The study area of this research is Tokyo metropolitan area, which is the largest urban area in the world (United Nations., 2010). Firstly, this study employs very high ground resolution zones composed of micro districts around 1km2. Secondly, the research attempt to combine remote sensing techniques and LUT models

Exact-Differential Large-Scale Traffic Simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hanai, Masatoshi; Suzumura, Toyotaro; Theodoropoulos, Georgios

2015-01-01

Analyzing large-scale traffics by simulation needs repeating execution many times with various patterns of scenarios or parameters. Such repeating execution brings about big redundancy because the change from a prior scenario to a later scenario is very minor in most cases, for example, blocking only one of roads or changing the speed limit of several roads. In this paper, we propose a new redundancy reduction technique, called exact-differential simulation, which enables to simulate only changing scenarios in later execution while keeping exactly same results as in the case of whole simulation. The paper consists of two main efforts: (i) amore » key idea and algorithm of the exact-differential simulation, (ii) a method to build large-scale traffic simulation on the top of the exact-differential simulation. In experiments of Tokyo traffic simulation, the exact-differential simulation shows 7.26 times as much elapsed time improvement in average and 2.26 times improvement even in the worst case as the whole simulation.« less

Increased care demand and medical costs after falls in nursing homes: A Delphi study.

PubMed

Sterke, Carolyn Shanty; Panneman, Martien J; Erasmus, Vicki; Polinder, Suzanne; van Beeck, Ed F

2018-04-21

To estimate the increased care demand and medical costs caused by falls in nursing homes. There is compelling evidence that falls in nursing homes are preventable. However, proper implementation of evidence-based guidelines to prevent falls is often hindered by insufficient management support, staff time and funding. A three-round Delphi study. A panel of 41 experts, all working in nursing homes in the Netherlands, received three online questionnaires to estimate the extra hours of care needed during the first year after the fall. This was estimated for ten falls categories with different levels of injury severity, in three scenarios, that is a best-case, a typical-case and a worst-case scenario. We calculated the costs of falls by multiplying the mean amount of extra hours that the participants spent on the care for a resident after a fall with their hourly wages. In case of a noninjurious fall, the extra time spent on the faller is on average almost 5 hr, expressed in euros that add to € 193. The extra staff time and costs of falls increased with increasing severity of injury. In the case of a fracture of the lower limb, the extra staff time increased to 132 hr, expressed in euros that is € 4,604. In the worst-case scenario of a fracture of the lower limb, the extra staff time increased to 284 hr, expressed in euros that is € 10,170. Falls in nursing homes result in a great deal of extra staff time spent on care, with extra costs varying between € 193 for a noninjurious fall and € 10,170 for serious falls. This study could aid decision-making on investing in appropriate implementation of falls prevention interventions in nursing homes. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Dispelling urban myths about default uncertainty factors in chemical risk assessment – sufficient protection against mixture effects?

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Assessing the detrimental health effects of chemicals requires the extrapolation of experimental data in animals to human populations. This is achieved by applying a default uncertainty factor of 100 to doses not found to be associated with observable effects in laboratory animals. It is commonly assumed that the toxicokinetic and toxicodynamic sub-components of this default uncertainty factor represent worst-case scenarios and that the multiplication of those components yields conservative estimates of safe levels for humans. It is sometimes claimed that this conservatism also offers adequate protection from mixture effects. By analysing the evolution of uncertainty factors from a historical perspective, we expose that the default factor and its sub-components are intended to represent adequate rather than worst-case scenarios. The intention of using assessment factors for mixture effects was abandoned thirty years ago. It is also often ignored that the conservatism (or otherwise) of uncertainty factors can only be considered in relation to a defined level of protection. A protection equivalent to an effect magnitude of 0.001-0.0001% over background incidence is generally considered acceptable. However, it is impossible to say whether this level of protection is in fact realised with the tolerable doses that are derived by employing uncertainty factors. Accordingly, it is difficult to assess whether uncertainty factors overestimate or underestimate the sensitivity differences in human populations. It is also often not appreciated that the outcome of probabilistic approaches to the multiplication of sub-factors is dependent on the choice of probability distributions. Therefore, the idea that default uncertainty factors are overly conservative worst-case scenarios which can account both for the lack of statistical power in animal experiments and protect against potential mixture effects is ill-founded. We contend that precautionary regulation should provide an

Dispelling urban myths about default uncertainty factors in chemical risk assessment--sufficient protection against mixture effects?

PubMed

Martin, Olwenn V; Martin, Scholze; Kortenkamp, Andreas

2013-07-01

Assessing the detrimental health effects of chemicals requires the extrapolation of experimental data in animals to human populations. This is achieved by applying a default uncertainty factor of 100 to doses not found to be associated with observable effects in laboratory animals. It is commonly assumed that the toxicokinetic and toxicodynamic sub-components of this default uncertainty factor represent worst-case scenarios and that the multiplication of those components yields conservative estimates of safe levels for humans. It is sometimes claimed that this conservatism also offers adequate protection from mixture effects. By analysing the evolution of uncertainty factors from a historical perspective, we expose that the default factor and its sub-components are intended to represent adequate rather than worst-case scenarios. The intention of using assessment factors for mixture effects was abandoned thirty years ago. It is also often ignored that the conservatism (or otherwise) of uncertainty factors can only be considered in relation to a defined level of protection. A protection equivalent to an effect magnitude of 0.001-0.0001% over background incidence is generally considered acceptable. However, it is impossible to say whether this level of protection is in fact realised with the tolerable doses that are derived by employing uncertainty factors. Accordingly, it is difficult to assess whether uncertainty factors overestimate or underestimate the sensitivity differences in human populations. It is also often not appreciated that the outcome of probabilistic approaches to the multiplication of sub-factors is dependent on the choice of probability distributions. Therefore, the idea that default uncertainty factors are overly conservative worst-case scenarios which can account both for the lack of statistical power in animal experiments and protect against potential mixture effects is ill-founded. We contend that precautionary regulation should provide an

Simulation of Reclaimed-Water Injection and Pumping Scenarios and Particle-Tracking Analysis near Mount Pleasant, South Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petkewich, Matthew D.; Campbell, Bruce G.

2009-01-01

The effect of injecting reclaimed water into the Middendorf aquifer beneath Mount Pleasant, South Carolina, was simulated using a groundwater-flow model of the Coastal Plain Physiographic Province of South Carolina and parts of Georgia and North Carolina. Reclaimed water, also known as recycled water, is wastewater or stormwater that has been treated to an appropriate level so that the water can be reused. The scenarios were simulated to evaluate potential changes in groundwater flow and groundwater-level conditions caused by injecting reclaimed water into the Middendorf aquifer. Simulations included a Base Case and two injection scenarios. Maximum pumping rates were simulated as 6.65, 8.50, and 10.5 million gallons per day for the Base Case, Scenario 1, and Scenario 2, respectively. The Base Case simulation represents a non-injection estimate of the year 2050 groundwater levels for comparison purposes for the two injection scenarios. For Scenarios 1 and 2, the simulated injection of reclaimed water at 3 million gallons per day begins in 2012 and continues through 2050. The flow paths and time of travel for the injected reclaimed water were simulated using particle-tracking analysis. The simulations indicated a general decline of groundwater altitudes in the Middendorf aquifer in the Mount Pleasant, South Carolina, area between 2004 and 2050 for the Base Case and two injection scenarios. For the Base Case, groundwater altitudes generally declined about 90 feet from the 2004 groundwater levels. For Scenarios 1 and 2, although groundwater altitudes initially increased in the Mount Pleasant area because of the simulated injection, these higher groundwater levels declined as Mount Pleasant Waterworks pumping increased over time. When compared to the Base Case simulation, 2050 groundwater altitudes for Scenario 1 are between 15 feet lower to 23 feet higher for production wells, between 41 and 77 feet higher for the injection wells, and between 9 and 23 feet higher for

Merger of Two Neutron Stars: Predictions from the Two-families Scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drago, Alessandro; Pagliara, Giuseppe

2018-01-01

If only one family of “neutron stars” exists, their maximum mass must be equal to or larger than 2{M}ȯ and then, only in less than about 18% of cases, the outcome of the merger of two neutron stars is a prompt collapse to a black hole, since the newly formed system can avoid the collapse at least until differential rotation is present. In the so-called two-families scenario, stars made of hadrons are stable only up to about (1.5{--}1.6){M}ȯ , while the most massive compact stars are entirely made of strange quark matter. We show that in this scenario the outcome of the merger of two compact stars, entirely composed by hadrons, is a prompt collapse in at least 34% of the cases. It will therefore be easy to discriminate between the two scenarios once the gravitational waves emitted at the moment of the merger are detected. Finally, we shortly discuss the implications of GW170817‑GRB 170817A.

Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

2011-01-01

Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

Asymmetric information and user orientation in general practice: Exploring the agency relationship in a best-worst scaling study.

PubMed

Pedersen, Line Bjørnskov; Hess, Stephane; Kjær, Trine

2016-12-01

This study uses a best-worst scaling experiment to test whether general practitioners (GPs) act as perfect agents for the patients in the consultation; and if not, whether this is due to asymmetric information and/or other motivations than user orientation. Survey data were collected from 775 GPs and 1379 Danish citizens eliciting preferences for a consultation. Sequential models allowing for within-person preference heterogeneity and heteroskedasticity between best and worst choices were estimated. We show that GPs do not always act as perfect agents and that this non-alignment stems from GPs being both unable and unwilling to do so. Unable since GPs have imperfect information about patients' preferences, and unwilling since they are also motivated by other factors than user orientation. Our findings highlight the need for multi-pronged strategies targeting different motivational factors to ensure that GPs act in correspondence with patients' preferences in areas where alignment is warranted. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The effect of a loss of model structural detail due to network skeletonization on contamination warning system design: case studies.

PubMed

Davis, Michael J; Janke, Robert

2018-01-04

The effect of limitations in the structural detail available in a network model on contamination warning system (CWS) design was examined in case studies using the original and skeletonized network models for two water distribution systems (WDSs). The skeletonized models were used as proxies for incomplete network models. CWS designs were developed by optimizing sensor placements for worst-case and mean-case contamination events. Designs developed using the skeletonized network models were transplanted into the original network model for evaluation. CWS performance was defined as the number of people who ingest more than some quantity of a contaminant in tap water before the CWS detects the presence of contamination. Lack of structural detail in a network model can result in CWS designs that (1) provide considerably less protection against worst-case contamination events than that obtained when a more complete network model is available and (2) yield substantial underestimates of the consequences associated with a contamination event. Nevertheless, CWSs developed using skeletonized network models can provide useful reductions in consequences for contaminants whose effects are not localized near the injection location. Mean-case designs can yield worst-case performances similar to those for worst-case designs when there is uncertainty in the network model. Improvements in network models for WDSs have the potential to yield significant improvements in CWS designs as well as more realistic evaluations of those designs. Although such improvements would be expected to yield improved CWS performance, the expected improvements in CWS performance have not been quantified previously. The results presented here should be useful to those responsible for the design or implementation of CWSs, particularly managers and engineers in water utilities, and encourage the development of improved network models.

The effect of a loss of model structural detail due to network skeletonization on contamination warning system design: case studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Michael J.; Janke, Robert

2018-05-01

The effect of limitations in the structural detail available in a network model on contamination warning system (CWS) design was examined in case studies using the original and skeletonized network models for two water distribution systems (WDSs). The skeletonized models were used as proxies for incomplete network models. CWS designs were developed by optimizing sensor placements for worst-case and mean-case contamination events. Designs developed using the skeletonized network models were transplanted into the original network model for evaluation. CWS performance was defined as the number of people who ingest more than some quantity of a contaminant in tap water before the CWS detects the presence of contamination. Lack of structural detail in a network model can result in CWS designs that (1) provide considerably less protection against worst-case contamination events than that obtained when a more complete network model is available and (2) yield substantial underestimates of the consequences associated with a contamination event. Nevertheless, CWSs developed using skeletonized network models can provide useful reductions in consequences for contaminants whose effects are not localized near the injection location. Mean-case designs can yield worst-case performances similar to those for worst-case designs when there is uncertainty in the network model. Improvements in network models for WDSs have the potential to yield significant improvements in CWS designs as well as more realistic evaluations of those designs. Although such improvements would be expected to yield improved CWS performance, the expected improvements in CWS performance have not been quantified previously. The results presented here should be useful to those responsible for the design or implementation of CWSs, particularly managers and engineers in water utilities, and encourage the development of improved network models.

78 FR 5775 - Notice of Allocation of Tariff Rate Quotas (TRQ) on the Import of Certain Worsted Wool Fabrics...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-01-28

... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE International Trade Administration Notice of Allocation of Tariff Rate... Trade Administration, Department of Commerce. ACTION: Notice of allocation of 2013 worsted wool fabric tariff rate quota. SUMMARY: The Department of Commerce (Department) has determined the allocation for...

Life cycle assessment of urban waste management: Energy performances and environmental impacts. The case of Rome, Italy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cherubini, Francesco; Bargigli, Silvia; Ulgiati, Sergio

2008-12-15

Landfilling is nowadays the most common practice of waste management in Italy in spite of enforced regulations aimed at increasing waste pre-sorting as well as energy and material recovery. In this work we analyse selected alternative scenarios aimed at minimizing the unused material fraction to be delivered to the landfill. The methodological framework of the analysis is the life cycle assessment, in a multi-method form developed by our research team. The approach was applied to the case of municipal solid waste (MSW) management in Rome, with a special focus on energy and material balance, including global and local scale airbornemore » emissions. Results, provided in the form of indices and indicators of efficiency, effectiveness and environmental impacts, point out landfill activities as the worst waste management strategy at a global scale. On the other hand, the investigated waste treatments with energy and material recovery allow important benefits of greenhouse gas emission reduction (among others) but are still affected by non-negligible local emissions. Furthermore, waste treatments leading to energy recovery provide an energy output that, in the best case, is able to meet 15% of the Rome electricity consumption.« less

Life cycle assessment of urban waste management: energy performances and environmental impacts. The case of Rome, Italy.

PubMed

Cherubini, Francesco; Bargigli, Silvia; Ulgiati, Sergio

2008-12-01

Landfilling is nowadays the most common practice of waste management in Italy in spite of enforced regulations aimed at increasing waste pre-sorting as well as energy and material recovery. In this work we analyse selected alternative scenarios aimed at minimizing the unused material fraction to be delivered to the landfill. The methodological framework of the analysis is the life cycle assessment, in a multi-method form developed by our research team. The approach was applied to the case of municipal solid waste (MSW) management in Rome, with a special focus on energy and material balance, including global and local scale airborne emissions. Results, provided in the form of indices and indicators of efficiency, effectiveness and environmental impacts, point out landfill activities as the worst waste management strategy at a global scale. On the other hand, the investigated waste treatments with energy and material recovery allow important benefits of greenhouse gas emission reduction (among others) but are still affected by non-negligible local emissions. Furthermore, waste treatments leading to energy recovery provide an energy output that, in the best case, is able to meet 15% of the Rome electricity consumption.

Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST); NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melaina, Marc

This presentation describes the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool, H2FAST, and provides an overview of each of the three H2FAST formats: the H2FAST web tool, the H2FAST Excel spreadsheet, and the H2FAST Business Case Scenario (BCS) tool. Examples are presented to illustrate the types of questions that H2FAST can help answer.

Student Perceptions of Teachers' Nonverbal and Verbal Communication: A Comparison of Best and Worst Professors across Six Cultures

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Georgakopoulos, Alexia; Guerrero, Laura K.

2010-01-01

Students from six countries--Australia, Japan, Mexico, Sweden, Taiwan, and the United States--recalled the extent to which their best or worst professors used various forms of communication that have been associated with effective teaching. Across cultures, best professors were perceived to employ more nonverbal expressiveness, relaxed movement,…

Fine-Scale Structure Design for 3D Printing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panetta, Francis Julian

Modern additive fabrication technologies can manufacture shapes whose geometric complexities far exceed what existing computational design tools can analyze or optimize. At the same time, falling costs have placed these fabrication technologies within the average consumer's reach. Especially for inexpert designers, new software tools are needed to take full advantage of 3D printing technology. This thesis develops such tools and demonstrates the exciting possibilities enabled by fine-tuning objects at the small scales achievable by 3D printing. The thesis applies two high-level ideas to invent these tools: two-scale design and worst-case analysis. The two-scale design approach addresses the problem that accurately simulating--let alone optimizing--the full-resolution geometry sent to the printer requires orders of magnitude more computational power than currently available. However, we can decompose the design problem into a small-scale problem (designing tileable structures achieving a particular deformation behavior) and a macro-scale problem (deciding where to place these structures in the larger object). This separation is particularly effective, since structures for every useful behavior can be designed once, stored in a database, then reused for many different macroscale problems. Worst-case analysis refers to determining how likely an object is to fracture by studying the worst possible scenario: the forces most efficiently breaking it. This analysis is needed when the designer has insufficient knowledge or experience to predict what forces an object will undergo, or when the design is intended for use in many different scenarios unknown a priori. The thesis begins by summarizing the physics and mathematics necessary to rigorously approach these design and analysis problems. Specifically, the second chapter introduces linear elasticity and periodic homogenization. The third chapter presents a pipeline to design microstructures achieving a wide range of

Modeling the GLOF Hazard Process Chain at Imja Lake in the Nepal Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lala, J.; McKinney, D. C.; Rounce, D.

2017-12-01

The Hindu Kush-Himalaya region contains more glacial ice than any other non-polar region on earth. Many glacial lakes in Nepal are held in place by natural moraine dams, which are inherently unstable. Avalanches or landslides entering glacial lakes can cause tsunami-like waves that can overtop the moraines and trigger glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF). Mass loss at the Imja glacier is the highest in the Mount Everest region, and contributes to the expansion of Imja Tsho, a lake with several villages downstream. A GLOF from the lake might destroy both property and human life, making an understanding of flood triggering processes beneficial for both the downstream villages and other GLOF-prone areas globally. The process chain for an avalanche-induced GLOF was modeled numerically. The volume and velocity of debris from avalanches entering various future lake extents were calculated using RAMMS. Resulting waves and downstream flooding were simulated using BASEMENT to evaluate erosion at the terminal moraine. Wave characteristics in BASEMENT were validated with empirical equations to ensure the proper transfer of momentum from the avalanche to the lake. Moraine erosion was determined for two geomorphologic scenarios: a site-specific scenario using field samples, and a worst-case scenario based on past literature. Both cases resulted in no flooding outside the river channel at downstream villages. Worst-case scenario geomorphology resulted in increased channelization of the lake outlet and some moraine erosion but no catastrophic collapse. Site-specific data yielded similar results but with even less erosion and downstream discharge. While the models confirmed that Imja Tsho is unlikely to produce a catastrophic GLOF in the near future, they also highlight the importance of continued monitoring of the lake. Furthermore, the ease and flexibility of these methods allows for their adoption by a wide range of stakeholders for modeling other high-risk lakes.

Application of the Bulgarian emergency response system in case of nuclear accident in environmental assessment study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syrakov, Dimiter; Veleva, Blagorodka; Georgievs, Emilia; Prodanova, Maria; Slavov, Kiril; Kolarova, Maria

2014-05-01

radioactive pollution. The consequences were estimated based on the worst emission scenario for the existing basic reactor type, selection of real meteorological forecast conditions, favoring the direct transport of the contaminated air masses to the territory of the country in consideration. In the present work BERS is used to estimate the worst case accidental scenario impact from a possible new unit of Paks Nuclear Power Plant, Hungary over the territory of Bulgaria. 1. D.Syrakov, M.Prodanova, 1998, Atmospheric Environment, 32 (24), 4367-4375. 2. D. Syrakov, M. Prodanova, K. Slavov, Inernationsal J. Environment and Pollution, 20, 1-6 (2003) 286-296. 3. D. Syrakov, B. Veleva, M. Prodanova, T. Popova, M. Kolarova, Journal of Environmental Radioactivity 100 (2009) 151-156. 4. D.Syrakov, M Prodanova, J. Intern. Sci. Publ.: Ecology & Safety Vol. 6 Part 1 (2011) 94-102. www.scientific-publications.net.

A Roadmap for Future Security in the Western Balkans

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-22

and a specific cultural ambience.”5 In its historical background, the Balkan region was full of lasting frictions and security dilemmas. Probably...full moral , political, and diplomatic authority in a coherent and consistent way.”45 Although the EU has made a lot of organizational and... moral and pragmatic reasons toward the Western Balkan crisis in order to prevent the worst case scenario: escalating conflicts in Europe, and the

A tool for the consensual analysis of decision-making scenarios.

PubMed

Hunt, Geoffrey; Merzeder, Christine; Bischofberger, Iren

2018-05-01

The authors believe there is a need for novel ways of enhancing professional judgment and discretion in the contemporary healthcare environment. The objective is to provide a framework to guide a discursive analysis of an ongoing clinical scenario by a small group of healthcare professionals (4-12) to achieve consensual understanding in the decision-making necessary to resolve specific healthcare inadequacies and promote organisational learning. REPVAD is an acronym for the framework's five decision-making dimensions of reasoning, evidence, procedures, values, attitudes and defences. The design is set out in terms of well-defined definitions of the dimensions, a rationale for using REPVAD, and explications of dimensions one at a time. Furthermore, the REPVAD process of application to a scenario is set out, and a didactic scenario is given to show how REPVAD works together with a sample case. A discussion is fleshed out in four real life student cases, and a conclusion indicates strengths and weaknesses and the possibility of further development and transferability. In terms of findings, the model has been tried, tested and refined over a number of years in the development of advanced practitioners at university healthcare faculties in two European countries. Consent was obtained from the four participating students.

Temperature - Emissivity Separation Assessment in a Sub-Urban Scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moscadelli, M.; Diani, M.; Corsini, G.

2017-10-01

In this paper, a methodology that aims at evaluating the effectiveness of different TES strategies is presented. The methodology takes into account the specific material of interest in the monitored scenario, sensor characteristics, and errors in the atmospheric compensation step. The methodology is proposed in order to predict and analyse algorithms performances during the planning of a remote sensing mission, aimed to discover specific materials of interest in the monitored scenario. As case study, the proposed methodology is applied to a real airborne data set of a suburban scenario. In order to perform the TES problem, three state-of-the-art algorithms, and a recently proposed one, are investigated: Temperature-Emissivity Separation '98 (TES-98) algorithm, Stepwise Refining TES (SRTES) algorithm, Linear piecewise TES (LTES) algorithm, and Optimized Smoothing TES (OSTES) algorithm. At the end, the accuracy obtained with real data, and the ones predicted by means of the proposed methodology are compared and discussed.

Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines (Final Report)

EPA Science Inventory

EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the con...

Future Scenarios of Livestock and Land Use in Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa, M. H.; Abrahão, G. M.

2016-12-01

Brazil currently has about 213 M cattle heads in 151 M ha of pastures. In the last 40 years, both the top 5% and the average stocking rate are increasing exponentially in Brazil, while the relative yield gap has been constant. Using these historical relationships, we estimate future scenarios of livestock and land use in Brazil. We assume a reference scenario for the top 5%, in which pasturelands are adequately fertilized, soil is not compacted and well drained, grasses are never burned, pastures are divided in 8 subdivisions of regular area, are cattle is rotated through the subdivisions. The reference scenario does not consider irrigation or feed supplementation. We calibrate a computer model and run it for the pasturelands throughout the entire country. We conclude that current pastures have about 20% efficiency to raise cattle compared to the reference scenario. Considering the reference scenario, we predict an equilibrium will be reached in about 100 years, with top 5% with about 9.3 heads per ha and the average 4.3 heads per ha, or 600 M heads of livestock. Considering a more pessimistic scenario, which considers an inflection of the curve in present times, we predict an equilibrium will be reached in about 60 years, with the top 5% stocking rate equal to 4.3 heads per ha and the average equal to 2.2 heads per ha, or 300 M heads of livestock. Both cases represent a considerable expansion of the livestock, maybe even higher than the growth of the global demands for beef. These scenarios indicate that not all existing pasturelands need to be used in the future - a significant part of them may be converted to croplands, which will also contribute to the reduction of deforestation.

MANAGEMENT OF ACUTE SPORTS INJURIES AND MEDICAL CONDITIONS BY PHYSICAL THERAPISTS: ASSESSMENT VIA CASE SCENARIOS

PubMed Central

Karges, Joy Renae; Salsbery, Mitchell A.; Smith, Danna; Stanley, Erica J.

2011-01-01

Purpose/Background: Some physical therapists (PTs) provide services at sporting events, but there are limited studies investigating whether PTs are properly prepared to provide such services. The purpose of this study was to assess acute sports injury and medical condition management decision-making skills of PTs. Methods: A Web-based survey presented 17 case scenarios related to acute medical conditions and sport injuries. PTs from the Sports Physical Therapy Section of The American Physical Therapy Association were e-mailed a cover letter/Web link to the survey and invited to participate over a 30-day period. Data were analyzed using SPSS 18.0. Results: A total of 411 of 5158 PTs who were members of the Sports Physical Therapy Association in 2009 and had valid e-mail addresses completed the survey, of which 389 (7.5%) were appropriate for analysis. Over 75.0% of respondents felt “prepared” or “somewhat prepared” to provide immediate care for 13 out of 16 medical conditions, with seizures, spinal cord injuries, and internal organ injuries having the lowest percentages. Over 75.0% of the respondents made “appropriate” or “overly cautious” decisions for 11 of the 17 acute injury or medical condition cases. Conclusions: Results of the current study indicate that PTs felt more “prepared” and tended to make “appropriate” return to play decisions on the acute sports injury and medical condition case studies more often than coaches who participated in a similar study, regardless of level of importance of the game or whether the athlete was a starter vs. non-starter. However, for PTs who plan on assisting at sporting events, additional preparation/education may be recommended, such as what is taught in an emergency responder course. PMID:21904695

Implications of Climate Change on the Heat Budget of Lentic Systems Used for Power Station Cooling: Case Study Clinton Lake, Illinois.

PubMed

Quijano, Juan C; Jackson, P Ryan; Santacruz, Santiago; Morales, Viviana M; García, Marcelo H

2016-01-05

We use a numerical model to analyze the impact of climate change-in particular higher air temperatures-on a nuclear power station that recirculates the water from a reservoir for cooling. The model solves the hydrodynamics, the transfer of heat in the reservoir, and the energy balance at the surface. We use the numerical model to (i) quantify the heat budget in the reservoir and determine how this budget is affected by the combined effect of the power station and climate change and (ii) quantify the impact of climate change on both the downstream thermal pollution and the power station capacity. We consider four different scenarios of climate change. Results of simulations show that climate change will reduce the ability to dissipate heat to the atmosphere and therefore the cooling capacity of the reservoir. We observed an increase of 25% in the thermal load downstream of the reservoir, and a reduction in the capacity of the power station of 18% during the summer months for the worst-case climate change scenario tested. These results suggest that climate change is an important threat for both the downstream thermal pollution and the generation of electricity by power stations that use lentic systems for cooling.

Implications of climate change on the heat budget of lentic systems used for power station cooling: Case study Clinton Lake, Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Quijano, Juan C; Jackson, P. Ryan; Santacruz, Santiago; Morales, Viviana M; Garcia, Marcelo H.

2016-01-01

We use a numerical model to analyze the impact of climate change--in particular higher air temperatures--on a nuclear power station that recirculates the water from a reservoir for cooling. The model solves the hydrodynamics, the transfer of heat in the reservoir, and the energy balance at the surface. We use the numerical model to (i) quantify the heat budget in the reservoir and determine how this budget is affected by the combined effect of the power station and climate change and (ii) quantify the impact of climate change on both the downstream thermal pollution and the power station capacity. We consider four different scenarios of climate change. Results of simulations show that climate change will reduce the ability to dissipate heat to the atmosphere and therefore the cooling capacity of the reservoir. We observed an increase of 25% in the thermal load downstream of the reservoir, and a reduction in the capacity of the power station of 18% during the summer months for the worst-case climate change scenario tested. These results suggest that climate change is an important threat for both the downstream thermal pollution and the generation of electricity by power stations that use lentic systems for cooling.

Emissions Scenario Portal for Visualization of Low Carbon Pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friedrich, J.; Hennig, R. J.; Mountford, H.; Altamirano, J. C.; Ge, M.; Fransen, T.

2016-12-01

This proposal for a presentation is centered around a new project which is developed collaboratively by the World Resources Institute (WRI), Google Inc., and Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP). The project aims to develop an online, open portal, the Emissions Scenario Portal (ESP),to enable users to easily visualize a range of future greenhouse gas emission pathways linked to different scenarios of economic and energy developments, drawing from a variety of modeling tools. It is targeted to users who are not modelling experts, but instead policy analysts or advisors, investment analysts, and similar who draw on modelled scenarios to inform their work, and who can benefit from better access to, and transparency around, the wide range of emerging scenarios on ambitious climate action. The ESP will provide information from scenarios in a visually appealing and easy-to-understand manner that enable these users to recognize the opportunities to reduce GHG emissions, the implications of the different scenarios, and the underlying assumptions. To facilitate the application of the portal and tools in policy dialogues, a series of country-specific and potentially sector-specific workshops with key decision-makers and analysts, supported by relevant analysis, will be organized by the key partners and also in broader collaboration with others who might wish to convene relevant groups around the information. This project will provide opportunities for modelers to increase their outreach and visibility in the public space and to directly interact with key audiences of emissions scenarios, such as policy analysts and advisors. The information displayed on the portal will cover a wide range of indicators, sectors and important scenario characteristics such as macroeconomic information, emission factors and policy as well as technology assumptions in order to facilitate comparison. These indicators have been selected based on existing standards (such as the IIASA AR5

Hydropower and water supply: competing water uses under a future drier climate modeling scenarios for the Tagus River basin, Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexandre Diogo, Paulo; Nunes, João Pedro; Carmona Rodrigues, António; João Cruz, Maria; Grosso, Nuno

2014-05-01

drought periods, probably more acute by the year 2100 and in scenario A2. As a result, a decrease in inflows to the Castelo de Bode reservoir between 20 to 34% is expected, with emphasis in autumn. While for the near-term scenarios this is mostly due to a decrease in median annual inflow; for the long-term scenarios this is accompanied by lower inter-annual variability and a decrease of magnitude of wet year inflows. Associated with increased precipitation erosion potential, watershed sediment transport will probably tend to increase, enhancing phosphorous transport into surface water and thus contributing to potential eutrophication problems. However, modeling results do not indicate compromising water quality degradation. Decreased reservoir inflows should nevertheless be sufficient to sustain water supply, considering an average annual consumption of 160 hm3 y-1 and the legal prioritization of water supply over hydropower production, as worst case average annual inflows scenarios are estimated between 1 000 and 1 500 hm3 y-1. On the other hand, considering that hydropower comprises downstream releases averaging 1 400 hm3 y-1, restrictions to energy production will probably be required to compensate lower inflow periods and guaranty necessary water supply storage volumes. The presented modeling framework provided an adequate tool for assessing climate change impacts on water resources, demonstrating that climate scenarios are not likely to threaten Lisbon's water supply system but emphasizing the need for adequate reservoir management strategies contemplating the risk of competitive water uses in the Castelo de Bode reservoir.

Assessing Posttraumatic Stress Disorder with or without Reference to a Single, Worst Traumatic Event: Examining Differences in Factor Structure

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Elhai, Jon D.; Engdahl, Ryan M.; Palmieri, Patrick A.; Naifeh, James A.; Schweinle, Amy; Jacobs, Gerard A.

2009-01-01

The authors examined the effects of a methodological manipulation on the Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) Checklist's factor structure: specifically, whether respondents were instructed to reference a single worst traumatic event when rating PTSD symptoms. Nonclinical, trauma-exposed participants were randomly assigned to 1 of 2 PTSD…

Tsunami hazard potential for the equatorial southwestern Pacific atolls of Tokelau from scenario-based simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orpin, Alan R.; Rickard, Graham J.; Gerring, Peter K.; Lamarche, Geoffroy

2016-05-01

Devastating tsunami over the last decade have significantly heightened awareness of the potential consequences and vulnerability of low-lying Pacific islands and coastal regions. Our appraisal of the potential tsunami hazard for the atolls of the Tokelau Islands is based on a tsunami source-propagation-inundation model using Gerris Flow Solver, adapted from the companion study by Lamarche et al. (2015) for the islands of Wallis and Futuna. We assess whether there is potential for tsunami flooding on any of the village islets from a selection of 14 earthquake-source experiments. These earthquake sources are primarily based on the largest Pacific earthquakes of Mw ≥ 8.1 since 1950 and other large credible sources of tsunami that may impact Tokelau. Earthquake-source location and moment magnitude are related to tsunami-wave amplitudes and tsunami flood depths simulated for each of the three atolls of Tokelau. This approach yields instructive results for a community advisory but is not intended to be fully deterministic. Rather, the underlying aim is to identify credible sources that present the greatest potential to trigger an emergency response. Results from our modelling show that wave fields are channelled by the bathymetry of the Pacific basin in such a way that the swathes of the highest waves sweep immediately northeast of the Tokelau Islands. Our limited simulations suggest that trans-Pacific tsunami from distant earthquake sources to the north of Tokelau pose the most significant inundation threat. In particular, our assumed worst-case scenario for the Kuril Trench generated maximum modelled-wave amplitudes in excess of 1 m, which may last a few hours and include several wave trains. Other sources can impact specific sectors of the atolls, particularly distant earthquakes from Chile and Peru, and regional earthquake sources to the south. Flooding is dependent on the wave orientation and direct alignment to the incoming tsunami. Our "worst-case" tsunami

Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts in the United States: Four Regional Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tegen, S.; Keyser, D.; Flores-Espino, F.

This report uses the offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model and provides four case studies of potential offshore deployment scenarios in different regions of the United States: the Southeast, the Great Lakes, the Gulf Coast, and the Mid-Atlantic. Researchers worked with developers and industry representatives in each region to create potential offshore wind deployment and supply chain growth scenarios, specific to their locations. These scenarios were used as inputs into the offshore JEDI model to estimate jobs and other gross economic impacts in each region.

A Systematic Review Comparing the Acceptability, Validity and Concordance of Discrete Choice Experiments and Best-Worst Scaling for Eliciting Preferences in Healthcare.

PubMed

Whitty, Jennifer A; Oliveira Gonçalves, Ana Sofia

2018-06-01

The aim of this study was to compare the acceptability, validity and concordance of discrete choice experiment (DCE) and best-worst scaling (BWS) stated preference approaches in health. A systematic search of EMBASE, Medline, AMED, PubMed, CINAHL, Cochrane Library and EconLit databases was undertaken in October to December 2016 without date restriction. Studies were included if they were published in English, presented empirical data related to the administration or findings of traditional format DCE and object-, profile- or multiprofile-case BWS, and were related to health. Study quality was assessed using the PREFS checklist. Fourteen articles describing 12 studies were included, comparing DCE with profile-case BWS (9 studies), DCE and multiprofile-case BWS (1 study), and profile- and multiprofile-case BWS (2 studies). Although limited and inconsistent, the balance of evidence suggests that preferences derived from DCE and profile-case BWS may not be concordant, regardless of the decision context. Preferences estimated from DCE and multiprofile-case BWS may be concordant (single study). Profile- and multiprofile-case BWS appear more statistically efficient than DCE, but no evidence is available to suggest they have a greater response efficiency. Little evidence suggests superior validity for one format over another. Participant acceptability may favour DCE, which had a lower self-reported task difficulty and was preferred over profile-case BWS in a priority setting but not necessarily in other decision contexts. DCE and profile-case BWS may be of equal validity but give different preference estimates regardless of the health context; thus, they may be measuring different constructs. Therefore, choice between methods is likely to be based on normative considerations related to coherence with theoretical frameworks and on pragmatic considerations related to ease of data collection.

Grassland production under global change scenarios for New Zealand pastoral agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, E. D.; Baisden, W. T.; Timar, L.; Mullan, B.; Clark, A.

2014-10-01

We adapt and integrate the Biome-BGC and Land Use in Rural New Zealand models to simulate pastoral agriculture and to make land-use change, intensification of agricultural activity and climate change scenario projections of New Zealand's pasture production at time slices centred on 2020, 2050 and 2100, with comparison to a present-day baseline. Biome-BGC model parameters are optimised for pasture production in both dairy and sheep/beef farm systems, representing a new application of the Biome-BGC model. Results show up to a 10% increase in New Zealand's national pasture production in 2020 under intensification and a 1-2% increase by 2050 from economic factors driving land-use change. Climate change scenarios using statistically downscaled global climate models (GCMs) from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report also show national increases of 1-2% in 2050, with significant regional variations. Projected out to 2100, however, these scenarios are more sensitive to the type of pasture system and the severity of warming: dairy systems show an increase in production of 4% under mild change but a decline of 1% under a more extreme case, whereas sheep/beef production declines in both cases by 3 and 13%, respectively. Our results suggest that high-fertility systems such as dairying could be more resilient under future change, with dairy production increasing or only slightly declining in all of our scenarios. These are the first national-scale estimates using a model to evaluate the joint effects of climate change, CO2 fertilisation and N-cycle feedbacks on New Zealand's unique pastoral production systems that dominate the nation's agriculture and economy. Model results emphasise that CO2 fertilisation and N-cycle feedback effects are responsible for meaningful differences in agricultural systems. More broadly, we demonstrate that our model output enables analysis of decoupled land-use change scenarios: the Biome-BGC data products at a national or regional level can be re

Grassland production under global change scenarios for New Zealand pastoral agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, E. D.; Baisden, W. T.; Timar, L.; Mullan, B.; Clark, A.

2014-05-01

We adapt and integrate the Biome-BGC and Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZ) models to simulate pastoral agriculture and to make land-use change, intensification and climate change scenario projections of New Zealand's pasture production at time slices centred on 2020, 2050 and 2100, with comparison to a present-day baseline. Biome-BGC model parameters are optimised for pasture production in both dairy and sheep/beef farm systems, representing a new application of the Biome-BGC model. Results show up to a 10% increase in New Zealand's national pasture production in 2020 under intensification and a 1-2% increase by 2050 from economic factors driving land-use change. Climate change scenarios using statistically downscaled global climate models (GCMs) from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) also show national increases of 1-2% in 2050, with significant regional variations. Projected out to 2100, however, these scenarios are more sensitive to the type of pasture system and the severity of warming: dairy systems show an increase in production of 4% under mild change but a decline of 1% under a more extreme case, whereas sheep/beef production declines in both cases by 3% and 13%, respectively. Our results suggest that high-fertility systems such as dairying could be more resilient under future change, with dairy production increasing or only slightly declining in all of our scenarios. These are the first national-scale estimates using a model to evaluate the joint effects of climate change, CO2 fertilisation and N-cycle feedbacks on New Zealand's unique pastoral production systems that dominate the nation's agriculture and economy. Model results emphasize that CO2 fertilisation and N cycle feedback effects are responsible for meaningful differences in agricultural systems. More broadly, we demonstrate that our model output enables analysis of Decoupled Land-Use Change Scenarios (DLUCS): the Biome-BGC data products at a national or regional level can be re

Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment.

PubMed

Retèl, Valesca P; Joore, Manuela A; Linn, Sabine C; Rutgers, Emiel J T; van Harten, Wim H

2012-08-16

Health Technology Assessment (HTA) information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and different development paths are still possible. We developed a multi-parameter framework to assess dynamic aspects of a technology -still in development-, by means of scenario drafting to determine the effects, costs and cost-effectiveness of possible future diffusion patterns. Secondly, we explored the value of this method on the case of the clinical implementation of the 70-gene signature for breast cancer, a gene expression profile for selecting patients who will benefit most from chemotherapy. To incorporate process-uncertainty, ten possible scenarios regarding the introduction of the 70-gene signature were drafted with European experts. Out of 5 most likely scenarios, 3 drivers of diffusion (non-compliance, technical failure, and uptake) were quantitatively integrated in a decision-analytical model. For these scenarios, the cost-effectiveness of the 70-gene signature expressed in Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs) was compared to clinical guidelines, calculated from the past (2005) until the future (2020). In 2005 the ICER was €1,9 million/quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY), meaning that the 70-gene signature was not yet cost-effective compared to the current clinical guideline. The ICER for the 70-gene signature improved over time with a range of €1,9 million to €26,145 in 2010 and €1,9 million to €11,123/QALY in 2020 depending on the separate scenario used. From 2010, the 70-gene signature should be cost-effective, based on the combined scenario. The uptake-scenario had strongest influence on the cost-effectiveness. When optimal diffusion of a technology is sought, incorporating process-uncertainty by means of scenario drafting into a decision model may

Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Health Technology Assessment (HTA) information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and different development paths are still possible. We developed a multi-parameter framework to assess dynamic aspects of a technology -still in development-, by means of scenario drafting to determine the effects, costs and cost-effectiveness of possible future diffusion patterns. Secondly, we explored the value of this method on the case of the clinical implementation of the 70-gene signature for breast cancer, a gene expression profile for selecting patients who will benefit most from chemotherapy. Methods To incorporate process-uncertainty, ten possible scenarios regarding the introduction of the 70-gene signature were drafted with European experts. Out of 5 most likely scenarios, 3 drivers of diffusion (non-compliance, technical failure, and uptake) were quantitatively integrated in a decision-analytical model. For these scenarios, the cost-effectiveness of the 70-gene signature expressed in Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs) was compared to clinical guidelines, calculated from the past (2005) until the future (2020). Results In 2005 the ICER was €1,9 million/quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY), meaning that the 70-gene signature was not yet cost-effective compared to the current clinical guideline. The ICER for the 70-gene signature improved over time with a range of €1,9 million to €26,145 in 2010 and €1,9 million to €11,123/QALY in 2020 depending on the separate scenario used. From 2010, the 70-gene signature should be cost-effective, based on the combined scenario. The uptake-scenario had strongest influence on the cost-effectiveness. Conclusions When optimal diffusion of a technology is sought, incorporating process-uncertainty by means of

Climate change and Australian agriculture: a review of the threats facing rural communities and the health policy landscape.

PubMed

Hanna, Elizabeth G; Bell, Erica; King, Debra; Woodruff, Rosalie

2011-03-01

Population health is a function of social and environmental health determinants. Climate change is predicted to bring significant alterations to ecological systems on which human health and livelihoods depend; the air, water, plant, and animal health. Agricultural systems are intrinsically linked with environmental conditions, which are already under threat in much of southern Australian because of rising heat and protracted drying. The direct impact of increasing heat waves on human physiology and survival has recently been well studied. More diffusely, increasing drought periods may challenge the viability of agriculture in some regions, and hence those communities that depend on primary production. A worst case scenario may herald the collapse of some communities. Human health impacts arising from such transition would be profound. This article summarizes existing rural health challenges and presents the current evidence plus future predictions of climate change impacts on Australian agriculture to argue the need for significant augmentation of public health and existing health policy frameworks. The article concludes by suggesting that adaptation to climate change requires planning for worst case scenario outcomes to avert catastrophic impacts on rural communities. This will involve national policy planning as much as regional-level leadership for rapid development of adaptive strategies in agriculture and other key areas of rural communities.

Participatory Approach to Long-Term Socio-Economic Scenarios as Building Block of a Local Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Tool - The Case Study Lienz (East-Tyrol)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, Ina; Eder, Brigitte; Hama, Michiko; Leitner, Markus

2016-04-01

an important element in management and decision-making as problems in today's world are complex and require knowledge from many different domains and disciplines. Participation is also said to be a process of collective learning that changes the way people think and act which is a relevant point in forming appropriate region-specific climate adaptation strategies. The scenarios are based on an analysis of data on recent states and trends in major local sector developments concerning absolute and relative employment and value creation as well as on distinct socio-demographic developments in the region. Categories discussed in the scenario workshop cover inter alia institutions and governance, demographics, production and demand, markets, value-chains and trade, scientific and technological innovations, education and health. The derived stakeholder-based socio-economic scenarios were, in a second step, matched with the Shared Socio-economic reference Pathways (SSPs) in order to frame the locally produced scenarios with global narratives. Both strains were, in a third step, combined and backed-up by scientific literature in order to build the local socio-economic scenarios that served as background information in the analysis of risks, vulnerability and appropriate adaptation measures in the case-study region.

Telephone triage by nurses in primary care out-of-hours services in Norway: an evaluation study based on written case scenarios

PubMed Central

Hunskaar, Steinar

2011-01-01

Background The use of nurses for telephone-based triage in out-of-hours services is increasing in several countries. No investigations have been carried out in Norway into the quality of decisions made by nurses regarding our priority degree system. There are three levels: acute, urgent and non-urgent. Methods Nurses working in seven casualty clinics in out-of-hours districts in Norway (The Watchtowers) were all invited to participate in a study to assess priority grade on 20 written medical scenarios validated by an expert group. 83 nurses (response rate 76%) participated in the study. A one-out-of-five sample of the nurses assessed the same written cases after 3 months (n=18, response rate 90%) as a test–retest assessment. Results Among the acute, urgent and non-urgent scenarios, 82%, 74% and 81% were correctly classified according to national guidelines. There were significant differences in the proportion of correct classifications among the casualty clinics, but neither employment percentage nor profession or work experience affected the triage decision. The mean intraobserver variability measured by the Cohen kappa was 0.61 (CI 0.52 to 0.70), and there were significant differences in kappa with employment percentage. Casualty clinics and work experience did not affect intrarater agreement. Conclusion Correct classification of acute and non-urgent cases among nurses was quite high. Work experience and employment percentage did not affect triage decision. The intrarater agreement was good and about the same as in previous studies performed in other countries. Kappa increased significantly with increasing employment percentage. PMID:21262792

Telephone triage by nurses in primary care out-of-hours services in Norway: an evaluation study based on written case scenarios.

PubMed

Hansen, Elisabeth Holm; Hunskaar, Steinar

2011-05-01

The use of nurses for telephone-based triage in out-of-hours services is increasing in several countries. No investigations have been carried out in Norway into the quality of decisions made by nurses regarding our priority degree system. There are three levels: acute, urgent and non-urgent. Nurses working in seven casualty clinics in out-of-hours districts in Norway (The Watchtowers) were all invited to participate in a study to assess priority grade on 20 written medical scenarios validated by an expert group. 83 nurses (response rate 76%) participated in the study. A one-out-of-five sample of the nurses assessed the same written cases after 3 months (n = 18, response rate 90%) as a test-retest assessment. Among the acute, urgent and non-urgent scenarios, 82%, 74% and 81% were correctly classified according to national guidelines. There were significant differences in the proportion of correct classifications among the casualty clinics, but neither employment percentage nor profession or work experience affected the triage decision. The mean intraobserver variability measured by the Cohen kappa was 0.61 (CI 0.52 to 0.70), and there were significant differences in kappa with employment percentage. Casualty clinics and work experience did not affect intrarater agreement. Correct classification of acute and non-urgent cases among nurses was quite high. Work experience and employment percentage did not affect triage decision. The intrarater agreement was good and about the same as in previous studies performed in other countries. Kappa increased significantly with increasing employment percentage.

SERA Scenarios of Early Market Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Introductions: Modeling Framework, Regional Markets, and Station Clustering; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melaina, M.

This presentation provides an overview of the Scenario Evaluation and Regionalization Analysis (SERA) model, describes the methodology for developing scenarios for hydrogen infrastructure development, outlines an example "Hydrogen Success" scenario, and discusses detailed scenario metrics for a particular case study region, the Northeast Corridor.

What are colorectal cancer survivors' preferences for dietary advice? A best-worst discrete choice experiment.

PubMed

Wright, Stuart J; Gibson, Debbie; Eden, Martin; Lal, Simon; Todd, Chris; Ness, Andy; Burden, Sorrel

2017-12-01

Studies on healthy lifestyle interventions in survivors of colorectal cancer have been disappointing, demonstrating only modest changes. This study aims to quantify people's preferences for different aspects of dietary intervention. A best-worst discrete choice experiment was designed and incorporated into a questionnaire including participants' characteristics and a self-assessment of lifestyle. The response rate was 68% and 179 questionnaires were analysed. When analysing aggregate preferences, the modes of information provision selected as the most preferred were "face-to-face" (willingness to pay (WTP) £63.97, p ≤ 0.001) and "telephone" (WTP £62.36, p < 0.001) discussions whereas group discussions were preferred least (WTP -£118.96, p ≤ 0.001). Scenarios that included hospitals were most preferred (WTP £17.94, p = 0.031), and the favoured provider was bowel cancer nurses (WTP £75.11, p ≤ 0.001). When investigating preference heterogeneity, three sub-groups were identified: Firstly, "technophiles" preferring email (WTP £239.60, p ≤ 0.001) were male, were younger and had fewer risk factors. Secondly, a "one-to-one" group had strong preference for interventions over the telephone or at their local doctors and were older (WTP £642.13, p ≤ 0.001). Finally, a "person-centred" group preferred face-to-face individual or group sessions (WTP £358.79, p < 0.001) and had a high risk lifestyle. For survivors of colorectal cancer, there is not one approach that suits all when it comes to providing dietary advice. This is important information to consider when planning healthy lifestyle interventions which include dietary advice for survivors of colorectal cancer. Aligning services to individuals' preferences has the potential to improve patient experience and outcomes by increasing uptake of healthy lifestyle advice services and promoting a more tailored approach to dietary modifications, acknowledging sub-groups of people within the total

A directional model of tropospheric horizontal gradients in Global Positioning System and its application for particular weather scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masoumi, Salim; McClusky, Simon; Koulali, Achraf; Tregoning, Paul

2017-04-01

Improper modeling of horizontal tropospheric gradients in GPS analysis induces errors in estimated parameters, with the largest impact on heights and tropospheric zenith delays. The conventional two-axis tilted plane model of horizontal gradients fails to provide an accurate representation of tropospheric gradients under weather conditions with asymmetric horizontal changes of refractivity. A new parametrization of tropospheric gradients whereby an arbitrary number of gradients are estimated as discrete directional wedges is shown via simulations to significantly improve the accuracy of recovered tropospheric zenith delays in asymmetric gradient scenarios. In a case study of an extreme rain event that occurred in September 2002 in southern France, the new directional parametrization is able to isolate the strong gradients in particular azimuths around the GPS stations consistent with the "V" shape spatial pattern of the observed precipitation. In another study of a network of GPS stations in the Sierra Nevada region where highly asymmetric tropospheric gradients are known to exist, the new directional model significantly improves the repeatabilities of the stations in asymmetric gradient situations while causing slightly degraded repeatabilities for the stations in normal symmetric gradient conditions. The average improvement over the entire network is ˜31%, while the improvement for one of the worst affected sites P631 is ˜49% (from 8.5 mm to 4.3 mm) in terms of weighted root-mean-square (WRMS) error and ˜82% (from -1.1 to -0.2) in terms of skewness. At the same station, the use of the directional model changes the estimates of zenith wet delay by 15 mm (˜25%).

JPL Thermal Design Modeling Philosophy and NASA-STD-7009 Standard for Models and Simulations - A Case Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Avila, Arturo

2011-01-01

The Standard JPL thermal engineering practice prescribes worst-case methodologies for design. In this process, environmental and key uncertain thermal parameters (e.g., thermal blanket performance, interface conductance, optical properties) are stacked in a worst case fashion to yield the most hot- or cold-biased temperature. Thus, these simulations would represent the upper and lower bounds. This, effectively, represents JPL thermal design margin philosophy. Uncertainty in the margins and the absolute temperatures is usually estimated by sensitivity analyses and/or by comparing the worst-case results with "expected" results. Applicability of the analytical model for specific design purposes along with any temperature requirement violations are documented in peer and project design review material. In 2008, NASA released NASA-STD-7009, Standard for Models and Simulations. The scope of this standard covers the development and maintenance of models, the operation of simulations, the analysis of the results, training, recommended practices, the assessment of the Modeling and Simulation (M&S) credibility, and the reporting of the M&S results. The Mars Exploration Rover (MER) project thermal control system M&S activity was chosen as a case study determining whether JPL practice is in line with the standard and to identify areas of non-compliance. This paper summarizes the results and makes recommendations regarding the application of this standard to JPL thermal M&S practices.

Brief Communication: On the rapid and efficient monitoring results dissemination in landslide emergency scenarios: the Mont de La Saxe case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giordan, D.; Manconi, A.; Allasia, P.; Bertolo, D.

2015-04-01

Straightforward communication of monitoring results is of major importance in emergency scenarios relevant to large slope instabilities. Here we describe the communication strategy developed for the Mont de La Saxe case study, a large rockslide threatening La Palud and Entrèves hamlets in the Courmayeur municipality (Aosta Valley, Italy). Starting from the definition of actions and needs of the Landslide Management Team, including scientists, technicians, civil protection operators, decision makers, and politicians, we show that sharing and disseminating ad hoc information simplifies the understanding of the landslide evolution, as well as the correct communication of the level of criticality.

Geometrical Design of a Scalable Overlapping Planar Spiral Coil Array to Generate a Homogeneous Magnetic Field.

PubMed

Jow, Uei-Ming; Ghovanloo, Maysam

2012-12-21

We present a design methodology for an overlapping hexagonal planar spiral coil (hex-PSC) array, optimized for creation of a homogenous magnetic field for wireless power transmission to randomly moving objects. The modular hex-PSC array has been implemented in the form of three parallel conductive layers, for which an iterative optimization procedure defines the PSC geometries. Since the overlapping hex-PSCs in different layers have different characteristics, the worst case coil-coupling condition should be designed to provide the maximum power transfer efficiency (PTE) in order to minimize the spatial received power fluctuations. In the worst case, the transmitter (Tx) hex-PSC is overlapped by six PSCs and surrounded by six other adjacent PSCs. Using a receiver (Rx) coil, 20 mm in radius, at the coupling distance of 78 mm and maximum lateral misalignment of 49.1 mm (1/√3 of the PSC radius) we can receive power at a PTE of 19.6% from the worst case PSC. Furthermore, we have studied the effects of Rx coil tilting and concluded that the PTE degrades significantly when θ > 60°. Solutions are: 1) activating two adjacent overlapping hex-PSCs simultaneously with out-of-phase excitations to create horizontal magnetic flux and 2) inclusion of a small energy storage element in the Rx module to maintain power in the worst case scenarios. In order to verify the proposed design methodology, we have developed the EnerCage system, which aims to power up biological instruments attached to or implanted in freely behaving small animal subjects' bodies in long-term electrophysiology experiments within large experimental arenas.

Eliciting older people's preferences for exercise programs: a best-worst scaling choice experiment.

PubMed

Franco, Marcia R; Howard, Kirsten; Sherrington, Catherine; Ferreira, Paulo H; Rose, John; Gomes, Juliana L; Ferreira, Manuela L

2015-01-01

What relative value do older people with a previous fall or mobility-related disability attach to different attributes of exercise? Prospective, best-worst scaling study. Two hundred and twenty community-dwelling people, aged 60 years or older, who presented with a previous fall or mobility-related disability. Online or face-to-face questionnaire. Utility values for different exercise attributes and levels. The utility levels were calculated by asking participants to select the attribute that they considered to be the best (ie, they were most likely to want to participate in programs with this attribute) and worst (ie, least likely to want to participate). The attributes included were: exercise type; time spent on exercise per day; frequency; transport type; travel time; out-of-pocket costs; reduction in the chance of falling; and improvement in the ability to undertake tasks inside and outside of home. The attributes of exercise programs with the highest utility values were: home-based exercise and no need to use transport, followed by an improvement of 60% in the ability to do daily tasks at home, no costs, and decreasing the chances of falling to 0%. The attributes with the lowest utility were travel time of 30 minutes or more and out-of-pocket costs of AUD50 per session. The type of exercise, travel time and costs are more highly valued by older people than the health benefits. These findings suggest that physical activity engagement strategies need to go beyond education about health benefits and focus on improving accessibility to exercise programs. Exercise that can be undertaken at or close to home without any cost is most likely to be taken up by older people with past falls and/or mobility-related disability. Copyright © 2014 Australian Physiotherapy Association. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ecological scenario and Trypanosoma cruzi DTU characterization of a fatal acute Chagas disease case transmitted orally (Espírito Santo state, Brazil).

PubMed

Dario, Maria Augusta; Rodrigues, Marina Silva; Barros, Juliana Helena da Silva; Xavier, Samanta Cristina das Chagas; D'Andrea, Paulo Sérgio; Roque, André Luiz Rodrigues; Jansen, Ana Maria

2016-08-31

Trypanosoma cruzi infection via oral route results in outbreaks or cases of acute Chagas disease (ACD) in different Brazilian regions and poses a novel epidemiological scenario. In the Espírito Santo state (southeastern Brazil), a fatal case of a patient with ACD led us to investigate the enzootic scenario to avoid the development of new cases. At the studied locality, Triatoma vitticeps exhibited high T. cruzi infection rates and frequently invaded residences. Sylvatic and domestic mammals in the Rio da Prata locality, where the ACD case occurred, and in four surrounding areas (Baia Nova, Buenos Aires, Santa Rita and Todos os Santos) were examined and underwent parasitological and serological tests. Triatomines were collected for a fecal material exam, culturing and mini-exon gene molecular characterization, followed by RFLP-PCR of H3/Alul. Paraffin-embedded cardiac tissue of a patient was washed with xylene to remove paraffin and DNA was extracted using the phenol-chloroform method. For genotype characterization, PCR was performed to amplify the 1f8, GPI and 18S rRNA genes. In the case of V7V8 SSU rRNA, the PCR products were molecularly cloned. PCR products were sequenced and compared to sequences in GenBank. Phylogenetic analysis using maximum likelihood method with 1000 bootstrap replicates was performed. None of the animals showed positive hemocultures. Three rodents and two dogs showed signs of infection, as inferred from borderline serological titers. T. vitticeps was the only triatomine species identified and showed T. cruzi infection by DTUs TcI and TcIV. The analysis of cardiac tissue DNA showed mixed infection by T. cruzi (DTUs I, II, III and IV) and Trypanosoma dionisii. Each case or outbreak of ACD should be analyzed as a particular epidemiological occurrence. The results indicated that mixed infections in humans may play a role in pathogenicity and may be more common than is currently recognized. Direct molecular characterization from biological

Overview of the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST); NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melaina, Marc; Bush, Brian; Penev, Michael

This presentation provides an introduction to the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST) and includes an overview of each of the three versions of H2FAST: the Web tool, the Excel spreadsheet version, and the beta version of the H2FAST Business Case Scenario tool.

Scenario Studies on Effects of Soil Infiltration Rates, Land Slope, and Furrow Irrigation Characteristics on Furrow Irrigation-Induced Erosion.

PubMed

Dibal, Jibrin M; Ramalan, A A; Mudiare, O J; Igbadun, H E

2014-01-01

Furrow irrigation proceeds under several soil-water-furrow hydraulics interaction dynamics. The soil erosion consequences from such interactions in furrow irrigation in Samaru had remained uncertain. A furrow irrigation-induced erosion (FIIE) model was used to simulate the potential severity of soil erosion in irrigated furrows due to interactive effects of infiltration rates, land slope, and some furrow irrigation characteristics under different scenarios. The furrow irrigation characteristics considered were furrow lengths, widths, and stream sizes. The model itself was developed using the dimensional analysis approach. The scenarios studied were the interactive effects of furrow lengths, furrow widths, and slopes steepness; infiltration rates and furrow lengths; and stream sizes, furrow lengths, and slopes steepness on potential furrow irrigation-induced erosion, respectively. The severity of FIIE was found to relate somewhat linearly with slope and stream size, and inversely with furrow lengths and furrow width. The worst soil erosion (378.05 t/ha/yr) was found as a result of the interactive effects of 0.65 m furrow width, 50 m furrow length, and 0.25% slope steepness; and the least soil erosion (0.013 t/ha/yr) was induced by the combined effects of 0.5 l/s, 200 m furrow length, and 0.05% slope steepness. Evidently considering longer furrows in furrow irrigation designs would be a better alternative of averting excessive FIIE.

Odor impact assessment of trace sulfur compounds from working faces of landfills in Beijing, China.

PubMed

Liu, Yanjun; Lu, Wenjing; Wang, Hongtao; Huang, Qifei; Gao, Xingbao

2018-08-15

Odor pollution from landfills is causing a growing number of public complaints and concerns. Compared with hydrogen sulfide (H 2 S) and ammonia (NH 3 ), odor impacts of trace sulfur compounds (TSCs) are arousing concerns due to their low odor threshold values (OTVs). Working face on landfill sites has been claimed as major source of odor impacts. This study estimated the odor impacts of fugitive TSCs from the working face of a large typical municipal solid waste (MSW) landfill in Beijing, China. A modified wind tunnel system was introduced to estimate emission rates of TSCs, which is a basic requirement for odor impact assessment. The odor activity value (OAV) method was introduced for odor evaluation. Fieldwork in the selected landfill was conducted from 2014 to 2015. Methyl mercaptan (CH 3 SH), dimethyl sulfide, dimethyl disulfide (DMDS), and carbon disulfide (CS 2 ) were the TSCs studied in this work. The spatial concentration distributions of the TSCs were calculated on the basis of the Gaussian dispersion model in a "normal case" scenario and a "worst case" scenario. DMDS showed the highest emission rate (7.18 μg m -2  s -1 ), and CH 3 SH was the dominant odorous compound with an average emission rate of 4.58 μg m -2  s -1 . The dispersion modeling indicated that the odor impact distances of the TSCs in the studied landfill for the normal case and worst case scenarios were 495 ± 96 m and 9230 m at the downwind regions, respectively. Results of this study can benefit the formulation of strategies for odor control and abatement in landfill sites. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR) management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. Methods A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1). Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS) data for most scenarios (43 of 45). Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Results Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of individualized assessments

Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data.

PubMed

Dexter, Franklin; Wachtel, Ruth E; Epstein, Richard H

2011-01-07

No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR) management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1). Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS) data for most scenarios (43 of 45). Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of individualized assessments. Our technical advance is the

Environmental impact of a teratogenic actinide: a case study of americium-241

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, J.; Yang, J.Y.

1985-10-16

Americium-241 is widely used as a radiation source, but it also has some potential risk if taken into the body. Although the radiotoxicity of americium-241 is small compared to other transuranic actinides, its effects on the reproductive system and on development of the placenta are more damaging than the effects of plutonium-239. A previous report based on a worst-case scenario involving a hypothetical fire accident in a contaminated facility indicated that there could have been a significant impact on nearby residents from a unit release of americium-241 via atmospheric dispersion. However, because the facility is located in a rural regionmore » where most drinking water supplies are drawn from private wells, it is believed that deposition of americium-241 from the atmosphere might also have impacts via the groundwater pathway by infiltration of rainwater. In this analysis, a three-dimensional analytical mathematical model is used to assess several aspects of americium-241 contamination of groundwater, including radioactive transformation, advection, dispersion, and soil sorption. Simulation results indicate that no significant radiological impacts would occur to the nearby residents via the groundwater pathway. 15 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs.« less

Glacial CO2 Cycles: A Composite Scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broecker, W. S.

2015-12-01

There are three main contributors to the glacial drawdown of atmospheric CO2 content: starvation of the supply of carbon to the ocean-atmosphere reservoir, excess CO2 storage in the deep sea, and surface-ocean cooling. In this talk, I explore a scenario in which all three play significant roles. Key to this scenario is the assumption that deep ocean storage is related to the extent of nutrient stratification of the deep Atlantic. The stronger this stratification, the larger the storage of respiration CO2. Further, it is my contention that the link between Milankovitch insolation cycles and climate is reorganizations of the ocean's thermohaline circulation leading to changes in the deep ocean's CO2 storage. If this is the case, the deep Atlantic d13C record kept in benthic foraminifera shells tells us that deep ocean CO2 storage follows Northern Hemisphere summer insolation cycles and thus lacks the downward ramp so prominent in the records of sea level, benthic 18O and CO2. Rather, the ramp is created by the damping of planetary CO2 emissions during glacial time intervals. As it is premature to present a specific scenario, I provide an example as to how these three contributors might be combined. As their magnitudes and shapes remain largely unconstrained, the intent of this exercise is to provoke creative thinking.

Resource Demand Scenarios for the Major Metals.

PubMed

Elshkaki, Ayman; Graedel, T E; Ciacci, Luca; Reck, Barbara K

2018-03-06

The growth in metal use in the past few decades raises concern that supplies may be insufficient to meet demands in the future. From the perspective of historical and current use data for seven major metals-iron, manganese, aluminum, copper, nickel, zinc, and lead-we have generated several scenarios of potential metal demand from 2010 to 2050 under alternative patterns of global development. We have also compared those demands with various assessments of potential supply to midcentury. Five conclusions emerge: (1) The calculated demand for each of the seven metals doubles or triples relative to 2010 levels by midcentury; (2) The largest demand increases relate to a scenario in which increasingly equitable values and institutions prevail throughout the world; (3) The metal recycling flows in the scenarios meet only a modest fraction of future metals demand for the next few decades; (4) In the case of copper, zinc, and perhaps lead, supply may be unlikely to meet demand by about midcentury under the current use patterns of the respective metals; (5) Increased rates of demand for metals imply substantial new energy provisioning, leading to increases in overall global energy demand of 21-37%. These results imply that extensive technological transformations and governmental initiatives could be needed over the next several decades in order that regional and global development and associated metal demand are not to be constrained by limited metal supply.

Dark matter scenarios with multiple spin-2 fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González Albornoz, N. L.; Schmidt-May, Angnis; von Strauss, Mikael

2018-01-01

We study ghost-free multimetric theories for (N+1) tensor fields with a coupling to matter and maximal global symmetry group SN×(Z2)N. Their mass spectra contain a massless mode, the graviton, and N massive spin-2 modes. One of the massive modes is distinct by being the heaviest, the remaining (N‑1) massive modes are simply identical copies of each other. All relevant physics can therefore be understood from the case N=2. Focussing on this case, we compute the full perturbative action up to cubic order and derive several features that hold to all orders in perturbation theory. The lighter massive mode does not couple to matter and neither of the massive modes decay into massless gravitons. We propose the lighter massive particle as a candidate for dark matter and investigate its phenomenology in the parameter region where the matter coupling is dominated by the massless graviton. The relic density of massive spin-2 can originate from a freeze-in mechanism or from gravitational particle production, giving rise to two different dark matter scenarios. The allowed parameter regions are very different from those in scenarios with only one massive spin-2 field and more accessible to experiments.

Complementing Neurophysiology Education for Developing Countries via Cost-Effective Virtual Labs: Case Studies and Classroom Scenarios.

PubMed

Diwakar, Shyam; Parasuram, Harilal; Medini, Chaitanya; Raman, Raghu; Nedungadi, Prema; Wiertelak, Eric; Srivastava, Sanjeeva; Achuthan, Krishnashree; Nair, Bipin

2014-01-01

Classroom-level neuroscience experiments vary from detailed protocols involving chemical, physiological and imaging techniques to computer-based modeling. The application of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) is revolutionizing the current laboratory scenario in terms of active learning especially for distance education cases. Virtual web-based labs are an asset to educational institutions confronting economic issues in maintaining equipment, facilities and other conditions needed for good laboratory practice. To enhance education, we developed virtual laboratories in neuroscience and explored their first-level use in (Indian) University education in the context of developing countries. Besides using interactive animations and remotely-triggered experimental devices, a detailed mathematical simulator was implemented on a web-based software platform. In this study, we focused on the perceptions of technology adoption for a virtual neurophysiology laboratory as a new pedagogy tool for complementing college laboratory experience. The study analyses the effect of virtual labs on users assessing the relationship between cognitive, social and teaching presence. Combining feedback from learners and teachers, the study suggests enhanced motivation for students and improved teaching experience for instructors.

Complementing Neurophysiology Education for Developing Countries via Cost-Effective Virtual Labs: Case Studies and Classroom Scenarios

PubMed Central

Diwakar, Shyam; Parasuram, Harilal; Medini, Chaitanya; Raman, Raghu; Nedungadi, Prema; Wiertelak, Eric; Srivastava, Sanjeeva; Achuthan, Krishnashree; Nair, Bipin

2014-01-01

Classroom-level neuroscience experiments vary from detailed protocols involving chemical, physiological and imaging techniques to computer-based modeling. The application of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) is revolutionizing the current laboratory scenario in terms of active learning especially for distance education cases. Virtual web-based labs are an asset to educational institutions confronting economic issues in maintaining equipment, facilities and other conditions needed for good laboratory practice. To enhance education, we developed virtual laboratories in neuroscience and explored their first-level use in (Indian) University education in the context of developing countries. Besides using interactive animations and remotely-triggered experimental devices, a detailed mathematical simulator was implemented on a web-based software platform. In this study, we focused on the perceptions of technology adoption for a virtual neurophysiology laboratory as a new pedagogy tool for complementing college laboratory experience. The study analyses the effect of virtual labs on users assessing the relationship between cognitive, social and teaching presence. Combining feedback from learners and teachers, the study suggests enhanced motivation for students and improved teaching experience for instructors. PMID:24693260

Costs and cost-effectiveness of 9-valent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in two East African countries.

PubMed

Kiatpongsan, Sorapop; Kim, Jane J

2014-01-01

-effective, the added cost per vaccinated girl could go up to I$5.2 and I$16.2 in the worst-case and best-case scenarios, respectively. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of three times per-capita GDP where the 9-valent vaccine would be considered cost-effective, the thresholds of added costs associated with the 9-valent vaccine were I$27.3, I$14.5 and I$45.3 per vaccinated girl for the base case, worst-case and best-case scenarios, respectively. In Uganda, vaccination with the 9-valent vaccine was very cost-effective when the added cost of the 9-valent vaccine did not exceed I$8.3 per vaccinated girl. To be considered very cost-effective, the added cost per vaccinated girl could go up to I$4.5 and I$13.7 in the worst-case and best-case scenarios, respectively. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of three times per-capita GDP, the thresholds of added costs associated with the 9-valent vaccine were I$23.4, I$12.6 and I$38.4 per vaccinated girl for the base case, worst-case and best-case scenarios, respectively. This study provides a threshold range of incremental costs associated with the 9-valent HPV vaccine that would make it a cost-effective intervention in comparison to currently available HPV vaccines in Kenya and Uganda. These prices represent a 71% and 61% increase over the price offered to the GAVI Alliance ($5 per dose) for the currently available 2- and 4-valent vaccines in Kenya and Uganda, respectively. Despite evidence of cost-effectiveness, critical challenges around affordability and feasibility of HPV vaccination and other competing needs in low-resource settings such as Kenya and Uganda remain.

Costs and Cost-Effectiveness of 9-Valent Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Vaccination in Two East African Countries

PubMed Central

Kiatpongsan, Sorapop; Kim, Jane J.

2014-01-01

vaccinated girl. To be considered very cost-effective, the added cost per vaccinated girl could go up to I$5.2 and I$16.2 in the worst-case and best-case scenarios, respectively. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of three times per-capita GDP where the 9-valent vaccine would be considered cost-effective, the thresholds of added costs associated with the 9-valent vaccine were I$27.3, I$14.5 and I$45.3 per vaccinated girl for the base case, worst-case and best-case scenarios, respectively. In Uganda, vaccination with the 9-valent vaccine was very cost-effective when the added cost of the 9-valent vaccine did not exceed I$8.3 per vaccinated girl. To be considered very cost-effective, the added cost per vaccinated girl could go up to I$4.5 and I$13.7 in the worst-case and best-case scenarios, respectively. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of three times per-capita GDP, the thresholds of added costs associated with the 9-valent vaccine were I$23.4, I$12.6 and I$38.4 per vaccinated girl for the base case, worst-case and best-case scenarios, respectively. Conclusions This study provides a threshold range of incremental costs associated with the 9-valent HPV vaccine that would make it a cost-effective intervention in comparison to currently available HPV vaccines in Kenya and Uganda. These prices represent a 71% and 61% increase over the price offered to the GAVI Alliance ($5 per dose) for the currently available 2- and 4-valent vaccines in Kenya and Uganda, respectively. Despite evidence of cost-effectiveness, critical challenges around affordability and feasibility of HPV vaccination and other competing needs in low-resource settings such as Kenya and Uganda remain. PMID:25198104

Design Process of a Goal-Based Scenario on Computing Fundamentals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beriswill, Joanne Elizabeth

2014-01-01

In this design case, an instructor developed a goal-based scenario (GBS) for undergraduate computer fundamentals students to apply their knowledge of computer equipment and software. The GBS, entitled the MegaTech Project, presented the students with descriptions of the everyday activities of four persons needing to purchase a computer system. The…

Design scenarios for renovation of sports complex: a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nižetić, S.

2018-02-01

This paper elaborates design scenarios for a sports complex in Croatia from a technical and economic aspect. Different energy options are analysed and two are additionally addressed and discussed as the most viable ones. The possibilities of sports complex renovation are shown by properly choosing the appropriate energy concept and thus reducing the overall cost for produced thermal energy by around 33% and reducing the carbon dioxide emission by a factor of 1.8 in comparison with its present state. Finally, this study presents an example of good practice, where renewable energy solutions can be proposed and where it is possible to cover around 70-80% of overall yearly costs from achieved energy savings for the novel plant that is assumed to be financed through a bank loan.

Using scenarios to capture work processes in shared home care.

PubMed

Hägglund, Maria; Scandurra, Isabella; Koch, Sabine

2007-01-01

Shared home care is increasingly common, and in order to develop ICT that support such complex cooperative work it is crucial obtain an understanding of the work routines, information demands, and other central preconditions at the clinical level before the development is initiated. Scenarios are proposed as a technique that can be useful for capturing work processes in shared home care and experiences from the Old@Home project are presented. The scenarios are useful not only in the initial phases of the development project but throughout the development process, improving the accessibility of end user requirements and usability issues for the design team, and as a basis for use cases and further design.

A comprehensive multi-scenario based approach for a reliable flood-hazard assessment: a case-study application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lanni, Cristiano; Mazzorana, Bruno; Volcan, Claudio; Bertagnolli, Rudi

2015-04-01

Flood hazard is generally assessed by assuming the return period of the rainfall as a proxy for the return period of the discharge and the related hydrograph. Frequently this deterministic view is extended also to the straightforward application of hydrodynamic models. However, the climate (i.e. precipitation), the catchment (i.e. geology, soil and antecedent soil-moisture condition) and the anthropogenic (i.e. drainage system and its regulation) systems interact in a complex way, and the occurrence probability of a flood inundation event can significantly differ from the occurrence probability of the triggering event (i.e. rainfall). In order to reliably determine the spatial patterns of flood intensities and probabilities, the rigorous determination of flood event scenarios is beneficial because it provides a clear, rationale method to recognize and unveil the inherent stochastic behavior of natural processes. Therefore, a multi-scenario approach for hazard assessment should be applied and should consider the possible events taking place in the area potentially subject to flooding (i.e. floodplains). Here, we apply a multi-scenario approach for the assessment of the flood hazard around the Idro lake (Italy). We consider and estimate the probability of occurrence of several scenarios related to the initial (i.e. initial water level in the lake) and boundary (i.e. shape of the hydrograph, downslope drainage, spillway opening operations) conditions characterizing the lake. Finally, we discuss the advantages and issues of the presented methodological procedure compared to traditional (and essentially deterministic) approaches.

Assessing storm surge hazard and impact of sea level rise in the Lesser Antilles case study of Martinique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krien, Yann; Dudon, Bernard; Roger, Jean; Arnaud, Gael; Zahibo, Narcisse

2017-09-01

In the Lesser Antilles, coastal inundations from hurricane-induced storm surges pose a great threat to lives, properties and ecosystems. Assessing current and future storm surge hazards with sufficient spatial resolution is of primary interest to help coastal planners and decision makers develop mitigation and adaptation measures. Here, we use wave-current numerical models and statistical methods to investigate worst case scenarios and 100-year surge levels for the case study of Martinique under present climate or considering a potential sea level rise. Results confirm that the wave setup plays a major role in the Lesser Antilles, where the narrow island shelf impedes the piling-up of large amounts of wind-driven water on the shoreline during extreme events. The radiation stress gradients thus contribute significantly to the total surge - up to 100 % in some cases. The nonlinear interactions of sea level rise (SLR) with bathymetry and topography are generally found to be relatively small in Martinique but can reach several tens of centimeters in low-lying areas where the inundation extent is strongly enhanced compared to present conditions. These findings further emphasize the importance of waves for developing operational storm surge warning systems in the Lesser Antilles and encourage caution when using static methods to assess the impact of sea level rise on storm surge hazard.

Long-lasting permethrin-impregnated clothing: protective efficacy against malaria in hyperendemic foci, and laundering, wearing, and weathering effects on residual bioactivity after worst-case use in the rain forests of French Guiana.

PubMed

Most, Bruno; Pommier de Santi, Vincent; Pagès, Frédéric; Mura, Marie; Uedelhoven, Waltraud M; Faulde, Michael K

2017-02-01

Personal protective measures against hematophagous vectors constitute the first line of defense against arthropod-borne diseases. However, guidelines for the standardized testing and licensing of insecticide-treated clothing are still lacking. The aim of this study was to analyze the preventive effect of long-lasting polymer-coated permethrin-impregnated clothing (PTBDU) against malaria after exposure to high-level disease transmission sites as well as the corresponding loss of permethrin and bioactivity during worst-case field use. Between August 2011 and June 2012, 25 personnel wearing PTBDUs and exposed for 9.5 person-months in hyperendemic malaria foci in the rain forest of French Guiana contracted no cases of malaria, whereas 125 persons wearing untreated uniforms only, exposed for 30.5 person-months, contracted 11 cases of malaria, indicating that PTBDU use significantly (p = 0.0139) protected against malaria infection. In the field, PTBDUs were laundered between 1 and 218 times (mean 25.2 ± 44.8). After field use, the mean remaining permethrin concentration in PTBDU fabric was 732.1 ± 321.1 min varying between 130 and 1270 mg/m 2 (mean 743.9 ± 304.2 mg/m 2 ) in blouses, and between 95 and 1290 mg/m 2 (mean 720.2 ± 336.9 mg/m 2 ) in trousers. Corresponding bioactivity, measured according to internal licensing conditions as KD 99 times against Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, varied between 27.5 and 142.5 min (mean 47.7 ± 22.1 min) for blouses, and between 25.0 and 360 min (mean 60.2 ± 66.1 min) for trousers. We strongly recommend the use of long-lasting permethrin-impregnated clothing for the prevention of mosquito-borne diseases, including chikungunya, dengue, and zika fevers, which are currently resurging globally.

FHWA scenario planning guidebook

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-02-01

The purpose of this guidebook is to assist transportation agencies with carrying out a scenario planning process from start to finish. Transportation agencies can use the guidebook as a framework to develop a scenario planning approach tailored to th...

33 CFR 154.1029 - Worst case discharge.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... facility. The discharge from each pipe is calculated as follows: The maximum time to discover the release from the pipe in hours, plus the maximum time to shut down flow from the pipe in hours (based on... vessel regardless of the presence of secondary containment; plus (2) The discharge from all piping...

33 CFR 154.1029 - Worst case discharge.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... facility. The discharge from each pipe is calculated as follows: The maximum time to discover the release from the pipe in hours, plus the maximum time to shut down flow from the pipe in hours (based on... vessel regardless of the presence of secondary containment; plus (2) The discharge from all piping...

33 CFR 154.1029 - Worst case discharge.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... facility. The discharge from each pipe is calculated as follows: The maximum time to discover the release from the pipe in hours, plus the maximum time to shut down flow from the pipe in hours (based on... vessel regardless of the presence of secondary containment; plus (2) The discharge from all piping...

33 CFR 154.1029 - Worst case discharge.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... facility. The discharge from each pipe is calculated as follows: The maximum time to discover the release from the pipe in hours, plus the maximum time to shut down flow from the pipe in hours (based on... vessel regardless of the presence of secondary containment; plus (2) The discharge from all piping...

33 CFR 154.1029 - Worst case discharge.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... facility. The discharge from each pipe is calculated as follows: The maximum time to discover the release from the pipe in hours, plus the maximum time to shut down flow from the pipe in hours (based on... vessel regardless of the presence of secondary containment; plus (2) The discharge from all piping...

49 CFR 194.105 - Worst case discharge.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

...: Prevention measure Standard Credit(percent) Secondary containment >100% NFPA 30 50 Built/repaired to API standards API STD 620/650/653 10 Overfill protection standards API RP 2350 5 Testing/cathodic protection API...

49 CFR 194.105 - Worst case discharge.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

...: Prevention measure Standard Credit(percent) Secondary containment > 100% NFPA 30 50 Built/repaired to API standards API STD 620/650/653 10 Overfill protection standards API RP 2350 5 Testing/cathodic protection API...

49 CFR 194.105 - Worst case discharge.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

...: Prevention measure Standard Credit(percent) Secondary containment >100% NFPA 30 50 Built/repaired to API standards API STD 620/650/653 10 Overfill protection standards API RP 2350 5 Testing/cathodic protection API...

49 CFR 194.105 - Worst case discharge.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

...: Prevention measure Standard Credit(percent) Secondary containment > 100% NFPA 30 50 Built/repaired to API standards API STD 620/650/653 10 Overfill protection standards API RP 2350 5 Testing/cathodic protection API...

49 CFR 194.105 - Worst case discharge.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

...: Prevention measure Standard Credit(percent) Secondary containment > 100% NFPA 30 50 Built/repaired to API standards API STD 620/650/653 10 Overfill protection standards API RP 2350 5 Testing/cathodic protection API...

Scenarios use to engage scientists and decision-makers in a changing Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, O. A.; Eicken, H.; Payne, J. F.

2015-12-01

Scenarios provide a framework to develop more adaptive Arctic policies that allow decision makers to consider the best available science to address complex relationships and key uncertainties in drivers of change. These drivers may encompass biophysical factors such as climate change, socioeconomic drivers, and wild-cards that represent low likelihood but influential events such as major environmental disasters. We outline some of the lessons learned from the North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) scenarios project that could help in the development of adaptive science-based policies. Three spatially explicit development scenarios were identified corresponding to low, medium and high resource extraction activities on the North Slope and adjacent seas. In the case of the high energy development scenario science needs were focused on new technology, oil spill response, and the effects of offshore activities on marine mammals important for subsistence. Science needs related to community culture, erosion, permafrost degradation and hunting and trapping on land were also identified for all three scenarios. The NSSI science needs will guide recommendations for future observing efforts, and data from these observing activities could subsequently improve policy guidance for emergency response, subsistence management and other issues. Scenarios at pan-Arctic scales may help improve the development of international policies for resilient northern communities and encourage the use of science to reduce uncertainties in plans for adapting to change in the Arctic.

Task Order Number 5TS5702D035P: Testing Alternative Aircraft and Runway/Taxiway Deicers - Phase 2

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-06-01

represent the worst-case scenarios. In actual circumstances, due to location on the aircraft, many of these materials would be protected from direct contact...application and its location . This report is not intended to make judgments on the suitability of any of the products tested. It contains only data and a...table, in order to determine the significance of the difference in the data. The raw laboratory data are located in Appendix B. Table 9. Polymer Matrix

Inadvertent Intruder Analysis For The Portsmouth On-Site Waste Disposal Facility (OSWDF)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Frank G.; Phifer, Mark A.

2014-01-22

The inadvertent intruder analysis considers the radiological impacts to hypothetical persons who are assumed to inadvertently intrude on the Portsmouth OSWDF site after institutional control ceases 100 years after site closure. For the purposes of this analysis, we assume that the waste disposal in the OSWDF occurs at time zero, the site is under institutional control for the next 100 years, and inadvertent intrusion can occur over the following 1,000 year time period. Disposal of low-level radioactive waste in the OSWDF must meet a requirement to assess impacts on such individuals, and demonstrate that the effective dose equivalent to anmore » intruder would not likely exceed 100 mrem per year for scenarios involving continuous exposure (i.e. chronic) or 500 mrem for scenarios involving a single acute exposure. The focus in development of exposure scenarios for inadvertent intruders was on selecting reasonable events that may occur, giving consideration to regional customs and construction practices. An important assumption in all scenarios is that an intruder has no prior knowledge of the existence of a waste disposal facility at the site. Results of the analysis show that a hypothetical inadvertent intruder at the OSWDF who, in the worst case scenario, resides on the site and consumes vegetables from a garden established on the site using contaminated soil (chronic agriculture scenario) would receive a maximum chronic dose of approximately 7.0 mrem/yr during the 1000 year period of assessment. This dose falls well below the DOE chronic dose limit of 100 mrem/yr. Results of the analysis also showed that a hypothetical inadvertent intruder at the OSWDF who, in the worst case scenario, excavates a basement in the soil that reaches the waste (acute basement construction scenario) would receive a maximum acute dose of approximately 0.25 mrem/yr during the 1000 year period of assessment. This dose falls well below the DOE acute dose limit of 500 mrem/yr. Disposal

Managing uncertainty: a review of food system scenario analysis and modelling

PubMed Central

Reilly, Michael; Willenbockel, Dirk

2010-01-01

Complex socio-ecological systems like the food system are unpredictable, especially to long-term horizons such as 2050. In order to manage this uncertainty, scenario analysis has been used in conjunction with food system models to explore plausible future outcomes. Food system scenarios use a diversity of scenario types and modelling approaches determined by the purpose of the exercise and by technical, methodological and epistemological constraints. Our case studies do not suggest Malthusian futures for a projected global population of 9 billion in 2050; but international trade will be a crucial determinant of outcomes; and the concept of sustainability across the dimensions of the food system has been inadequately explored so far. The impact of scenario analysis at a global scale could be strengthened with participatory processes involving key actors at other geographical scales. Food system models are valuable in managing existing knowledge on system behaviour and ensuring the credibility of qualitative stories but they are limited by current datasets for global crop production and trade, land use and hydrology. Climate change is likely to challenge the adaptive capacity of agricultural production and there are important knowledge gaps for modelling research to address. PMID:20713402

Change Ahead: Transient Scenarios for Long-term Water Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Beersma, Jules; Schellekens, Jaap

2013-04-01

While the use of an ensemble of transient scenarios is common in climate change studies, they are rarely used in water management studies. Present planning studies on long-term water management often use a few plausible futures for one or two projection years, ignoring the dynamic aspect of adaptation through the interaction between the water system and society. Over the course of time society experiences, learns and adapts to changes and events, making policy responses part of a plausible future, and thus the success of a water management strategy. Exploring transient scenarios and policy options over time can support decision making on water management strategies in an uncertain and changing environment. We have developed and applied such a method, called exploring adaptation pathways (Haasnoot et al., 2012; Haasnoot et al., 2011). This method uses multiple realisations of transient scenarios to assess the efficacy of policy actions over time. In case specified objectives are not achieved anymore, an adaptation tipping point (Kwadijk et al., 2010) is reached. After reaching a tipping point, additional actions are needed to reach the objectives. As a result, a pathway emerges. In this presentation we describe the development of transient scenarios for long term water management, and how these scenarios can be used for long term water management under uncertainty. We illustrate this with thought experiments, and results from computational modeling experiment for exploring adaptation pathways in the lower Rhine delta. The results and the thought experiments show, among others, that climate variability is at least just as important as climate change for taking decisions in water management. References Haasnoot, M., Middelkoop, H., Offermans, A., Beek, E., Deursen, W.A.v. (2012) Exploring pathways for sustainable water management in river deltas in a changing environment. Climatic Change 115, 795-819. Haasnoot, M., Middelkoop, H., van Beek, E., van Deursen, W

Scenario prediction of emerging coastal city using CA modeling under different environmental conditions: a case study of Lingang New City, China.

PubMed

Feng, Yongjiu; Liu, Yan

2016-09-01

The world's coastal regions are experiencing rapid urbanization coupled with increased risk of ecological damage and storm surge related to global climate and sea level rising. This urban development issue is particularly important in China, where many emerging coastal cities are being developed. Lingang New City, southeast of Shanghai, is an excellent example of a coastal city that is increasingly vulnerable to environmental change. Sustainable urban development requires planning that classifies and allocates coastal lands using objective procedures that incorporate changing environmental conditions. In this paper, we applied cellular automata (CA) modeling based on self-adaptive genetic algorithm (SAGA) to predict future scenarios and explore sustainable urban development options for Lingang. The CA model was calibrated using the 2005 initial status, 2015 final status, and a set of spatial variables. We implemented specific ecological and environmental conditions as spatial constraints for the model and predicted four 2030 scenarios: (a) an urban planning-oriented Plan Scenario; (b) an ecosystem protection-oriented Eco Scenario; (c) a storm surge-affected Storm Scenario; and (d) a scenario incorporating both ecosystem protection and the effects of storm surge, called the Ecostorm Scenario. The Plan Scenario has been taken as the baseline, with the Lingang urban area increasing from 45.8 km(2) in 2015 to 66.8 km(2) in 2030, accounting for 23.9 % of the entire study area. The simulated urban land size of the Plan Scenario in 2030 was taken as the target to accommodate the projected population increase in this city, which was then applied in the remaining three development scenarios. We used CA modeling to reallocate the urban cells to other unconstrained areas in response to changing spatial constraints. Our predictions should be helpful not only in assessing and adjusting the urban planning schemes for Lingang but also for evaluating urban planning in coastal

Assessment of environmental impacts following alternative agricultural policy scenarios.

PubMed

Bárlund, I; Lehtonen, H; Tattari, S

2005-01-01

Abstract Finnish agriculture is likely to undergo major changes in the near and intermediate future. The ifuture policy context can be examined at a general level by strategic scenario building. Computer-based modelling in combination with agricultural policy scenarios can in turn create a basis for the assessments of changes in environmental quality following possible changes in Finnish agriculture. The analysis of economic consequences is based on the DREMFIA model, which is applied to study effects of various agricultural policies on land use, animal production, and farmers' income. The model is suitable for an impact analysis covering an extended time span--here up to the year 2015. The changes in land use, obtained with the DREMFIA model assuming rational economic behaviour, form the basis when evaluating environmental impacts of different agricultural policies. The environmental impact assessment is performed using the field scale nutrient transport model ICECREAM. The modelled variables are nitrogen and phosphorus losses in surface runoff and percolation. In this paper the modelling strategy will be presented and highlighted using two case study catchments with varying environmental conditions and land use as an example. In addition, the paper identifies issues arising when connecting policy scenarios with impact modelling.

Innovations in science and scenarios for assessment.

PubMed

Kunkel, Kenneth E; Moss, Richard; Parris, Adam

Scenarios for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) were produced for physical climate and sea level rise with substantial input from disciplinary and regional experts. These scenarios underwent extensive review and were published as NOAA Technical Reports. For land use/cover and socioeconomic conditions, scenarios already developed by other agencies were specified for use in the NCA3. Efforts to enhance participatory scenario planning as an assessment activity were pursued, but with limited success. Issues and challenges included the timing of availability of scenarios, the need for guidance in use of scenarios, the need for approaches to nest information within multiple scales and sectors, engagement and collaboration of end users in scenario development, and development of integrated scenarios. Future assessments would benefit from an earlier start to scenarios development, the provision of training in addition to guidance documents, new and flexible approaches for nesting information, ongoing engagement and advice from both scientific and end user communities, and the development of consistent and integrated scenarios.

Scenario Development for the Southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmoud, M.; Gupta, H.; Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Hartmann, H.; Wagener, T.

2006-12-01

The primary goal of employing a scenario development approach for the U.S. southwest is to inform regional policy by examining future possibilities related to regional vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian restoration. This approach is necessary due to a lack of existing explicit water resources application of scenarios to the entire southwest region. A formal approach for scenario development is adopted and applied towards water resources issues within the arid and semi-arid regions of the U.S. southwest following five progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. In the scenario definition phase, the inputs of scientists, modelers, and stakeholders were collected in order to define and construct relevant scenarios to the southwest and its water sustainability needs. From stakeholder-driven scenario workshops and breakout sessions, the three main axes of principal change were identified to be climate change, population development patterns, and quality of information monitoring technology. Based on the extreme and varying conditions of these three main axes, eight scenario narratives were drafted to describe the state of each scenario's respective future and the events which led to it. Events and situations are described within each scenario narrative with respect to key variables; variables that are both important to regional water resources (as distinguished by scientists and modelers), and are good tracking and monitoring indicators of change. The current phase consists of scenario construction, where the drafted scenarios are re-presented to regional scientists and modelers to verify that proper key variables are included (or excluded) from the eight narratives. The next step is to construct the data sets necessary to implement the eight scenarios on the respective computational models of modelers investigating vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian

[Prediction of heat-related mortality impacts under climate change scenarios in Shanghai].

PubMed

Guo, Ya-fei; Li, Tian-tian; Cheng, Yan-li; Ge, Tan-xi; Chen, Chen; Liu, Fan

2012-11-01

To project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality in shanghai. The statistical downscaling techniques were applied to simulate the daily mean temperatures of Shanghai in the middle and farther future under the changing climate. Based on the published exposure-reaction relationship of temperature and mortality in Shanghai, we projected the heat-related mortality in the middle and farther future under the circumstance of high speed increase of carbon e mission (A2) and low speed increase of carbon emission (B2). The data of 1961 to 1990 was used to establish the model, and the data of 1991 - 2001 was used to testify the model, and then the daily mean temperature from 2030 to 2059 and from 2070 to 2099 were simulated and the heat-related mortality was projected. The data resources were from U.S. National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis Data in SDSM Website and UK Hadley Centre Coupled Model Data in SDSM Website. The explained variance and the standard error of the established model was separately 98.1% and 1.24°C. The R(2) value of the simulated trend line equaled to 0.978 in Shanghai, as testified by the model. Therefore, the temperature prediction model simulated daily mean temperatures well. Under A2 scenario, the daily mean temperature in 2030 - 2059 and 2070 - 2099 were projected to be 17.9°C and 20.4°C, respectively, increasing by 1.1°C and 3.6°C when compared to baseline period (16.8°C). Under B2 scenario, the daily mean temperature in 2030 - 2059 and 2070 - 2099 were projected to be 17.8°C and 19.1°C, respectively, increasing by 1.0°C and 2.3°C when compared to baseline period (16.8°C). Under A2 scenario, annual average heat-related mortality were projected to be 516 cases and 1191 cases in 2030 - 2059 and 2070 - 2099, respectively, increasing 53.6% and 254.5% when compared with baseline period (336 cases). Under B2 scenario, annual average heat-related mortality were

Validation of a model with climatic and flow scenario analysis: case of Lake Burrumbeet in southeastern Australia.

PubMed

Yihdego, Yohannes; Webb, John

2016-05-01

Forecast evaluation is an important topic that addresses the development of reliable hydrological probabilistic forecasts, mainly through the use of climate uncertainties. Often, validation has no place in hydrology for most of the times, despite the parameters of a model are uncertain. Similarly, the structure of the model can be incorrectly chosen. A calibrated and verified dynamic hydrologic water balance spreadsheet model has been used to assess the effect of climate variability on Lake Burrumbeet, southeastern Australia. The lake level has been verified to lake level, lake volume, lake surface area, surface outflow and lake salinity. The current study aims to increase lake level confidence model prediction through historical validation for the year 2008-2013, under different climatic scenario. Based on the observed climatic condition (2008-2013), it fairly matches with a hybridization of scenarios, being the period interval (2008-2013), corresponds to both dry and wet climatic condition. Besides to the hydrologic stresses uncertainty, uncertainty in the calibrated model is among the major drawbacks involved in making scenario simulations. In line with this, the uncertainty in the calibrated model was tested using sensitivity analysis and showed that errors in the model can largely be attributed to erroneous estimates of evaporation and rainfall, and surface inflow to a lesser. The study demonstrates that several climatic scenarios should be analysed, with a combination of extreme climate, stream flow and climate change instead of one assumed climatic sequence, to improve climate variability prediction in the future. Performing such scenario analysis is a valid exercise to comprehend the uncertainty with the model structure and hydrology, in a meaningful way, without missing those, even considered as less probable, ultimately turned to be crucial for decision making and will definitely increase the confidence of model prediction for management of the water

Microbiome associations in pigs with the best and worst clinical outcomes following co-infection with porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) and porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2)

DOE PAGES

Niederwerder, Megan C.; Jaing, Crystal J.; Thissen, James B.; ...

2016-03-10

Co-infections involving porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) and porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2) are common and contribute to a range of polymicrobial disease syndromes in swine and on a world-wide basis. Both viruses compromise host defenses, resulting in increased susceptibility to infections by primary and secondary pathogens that can affect growth performance as well as increased morbidity and mortality. An experimental population of 95 pigs was co-infected with PRRSV and PCV2. At 70 days post-infection (dpi), 20 representative pigs were selected as having the best or worst clinical outcome based on average daily gain (ADG) and the presencemore » of clinical disease. Moreover, the worst clinical outcome pigs had prolonged and greater levels of viremia as measured by qPCR. Serum, lung and fecal samples collected at 70 dpi were analyzed using a comprehensive DNA microarray technology, the Lawrence Livermore Microbial Detection Array, to detect over 8000 microbes. Bacterial species, such as Bacillus cereus, were detected at a higher rate in the serum of worst performing pigs. At the level of the fecal microbiome, the overall microbial diversity was lower in the worst clinical outcome group. The results reinforce the importance of pathogen load in determining clinical outcome and suggest an important role of microbial diversity as a contributing factor in disease.« less

Microbiome associations in pigs with the best and worst clinical outcomes following co-infection with porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) and porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Niederwerder, Megan C.; Jaing, Crystal J.; Thissen, James B.

Co-infections involving porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) and porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2) are common and contribute to a range of polymicrobial disease syndromes in swine and on a world-wide basis. Both viruses compromise host defenses, resulting in increased susceptibility to infections by primary and secondary pathogens that can affect growth performance as well as increased morbidity and mortality. An experimental population of 95 pigs was co-infected with PRRSV and PCV2. At 70 days post-infection (dpi), 20 representative pigs were selected as having the best or worst clinical outcome based on average daily gain (ADG) and the presencemore » of clinical disease. Moreover, the worst clinical outcome pigs had prolonged and greater levels of viremia as measured by qPCR. Serum, lung and fecal samples collected at 70 dpi were analyzed using a comprehensive DNA microarray technology, the Lawrence Livermore Microbial Detection Array, to detect over 8000 microbes. Bacterial species, such as Bacillus cereus, were detected at a higher rate in the serum of worst performing pigs. At the level of the fecal microbiome, the overall microbial diversity was lower in the worst clinical outcome group. The results reinforce the importance of pathogen load in determining clinical outcome and suggest an important role of microbial diversity as a contributing factor in disease.« less

The influence of taxon sampling on Bayesian divergence time inference under scenarios of rate heterogeneity among lineages.

PubMed

Soares, André E R; Schrago, Carlos G

2015-01-07

Although taxon sampling is commonly considered an important issue in phylogenetic inference, it is rarely considered in the Bayesian estimation of divergence times. In fact, the studies conducted to date have presented ambiguous results, and the relevance of taxon sampling for molecular dating remains unclear. In this study, we developed a series of simulations that, after six hundred Bayesian molecular dating analyses, allowed us to evaluate the impact of taxon sampling on chronological estimates under three scenarios of among-lineage rate heterogeneity. The first scenario allowed us to examine the influence of the number of terminals on the age estimates based on a strict molecular clock. The second scenario imposed an extreme example of lineage specific rate variation, and the third scenario permitted extensive rate variation distributed along the branches. We also analyzed empirical data on selected mitochondrial genomes of mammals. Our results showed that in the strict molecular-clock scenario (Case I), taxon sampling had a minor impact on the accuracy of the time estimates, although the precision of the estimates was greater with an increased number of terminals. The effect was similar in the scenario (Case III) based on rate variation distributed among the branches. Only under intensive rate variation among lineages (Case II) taxon sampling did result in biased estimates. The results of an empirical analysis corroborated the simulation findings. We demonstrate that taxonomic sampling affected divergence time inference but that its impact was significant if the rates deviated from those derived for the strict molecular clock. Increased taxon sampling improved the precision and accuracy of the divergence time estimates, but the impact on precision is more relevant. On average, biased estimates were obtained only if lineage rate variation was pronounced. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Environmental assessment of spatial plan policies through land use scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Geneletti, Davide, E-mail: davide.geneletti@ing.unitn.it

2012-01-15

This paper presents a method based on scenario analysis to compare the environmental effects of different spatial plan policies in a range of possible futures. The study aimed at contributing to overcome two limitations encountered in Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) for spatial planning: poor exploration of how the future might unfold, and poor consideration of alternative plan policies. Scenarios were developed through what-if functions and spatial modeling in a Geographical Information System (GIS), and consisted in maps that represent future land uses under different assumptions on key driving forces. The use of land use scenarios provided a representation of howmore » the different policies will look like on the ground. This allowed gaining a better understanding of the policies' implications on the environment, which could be measured through a set of indicators. The research undertook a case-study approach by developing and assessing land use scenarios for the future growth of Caia, a strategically-located and fast-developing town in rural Mozambique. The effects of alternative spatial plan policies were assessed against a set of environmental performance indicators, including deforestation, loss of agricultural land, encroachment of flood-prone areas and wetlands and access to water sources. In this way, critical environmental effects related to the implementation of each policy were identified and discussed, suggesting possible strategies to address them. - Graphical abstract: Display Omitted Research Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The method contributes to two critical issues in SEA: exploration of the future and consideration of alternatives. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Future scenarios are used to test the environmental performance of different spatial plan policies in uncertainty conditions. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Spatially-explicit land use scenarios provide a representation of how different policies will look like on the

Collaborative reputation systems in a cultural heritage scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuomo, Salvatore; De Michele, Pasquale; Galletti, Ardelio; Ponti, Giovanni

2016-10-01

In the last decade, algorithms for reputation systems are been widely developed in order to achieve correct ratings for products, services, companies, digital contents and people. We start from a comprehensive mathematical model for Collaborative Reputation Systems (CRSes), present in the literature and formally defined as a recurrence relation that generates a sequence of trust matrices, from which the reputation of the items and the raters can be derived. Even though this model can be applied to several scenarios, the focus of this work is related to its application in a real case, that is a cultural event scenario. More in detail, in cultural heritage environment, the data collected in an event represent the basic knowledge to be inferred. The main idea is to correctly use the available technology and data to give a reliable rate (reputation) for both visitors and artworks. These rates will be very useful to classify the visiting style of the visitors and to fix the artworks that have most attracted visitors.

Combinatorial structure of genome rearrangements scenarios.

PubMed

Ouangraoua, Aïda; Bergeron, Anne

2010-09-01

In genome rearrangement theory, one of the elusive questions raised in recent years is the enumeration of rearrangement scenarios between two genomes. This problem is related to the uniform generation of rearrangement scenarios and the derivation of tests of statistical significance of the properties of these scenarios. Here we give an exact formula for the number of double-cut-and-join (DCJ) rearrangement scenarios between two genomes. We also construct effective bijections between the set of scenarios that sort a component as well studied combinatorial objects such as parking functions, labeled trees, and prüfer codes.

Evaluation of Separation Mechanism Design for the Orion/Ares Launch Vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Konno, Kevin E.; Catalano, Daniel A.; Krivanek, Thomas M.

2008-01-01

As a part of the preliminary design work being performed for the Orion vehicle, the Orion to Spacecraft Adaptor (SA) separation mechanism was analyzed and sized, with findings presented here. Sizing is based on worst case abort condition as a result of an anomaly driving the launch vehicle engine thrust vector control hard-over causing a severe vehicle pitch over. This worst-case scenario occurs just before Upper Stage Main Engine Cut-Off when the vehicle is the lightest and the damping effect due to propellant slosh has been reduced to a minimum. To address this scenario and others, two modeling approaches were invoked. The first approach was a detailed Simulink model to quickly assess the Service Module Engine nozzle to SA clearance for a given separation mechanism. The second approach involved the generation of an Automatic Dynamic Analysis of Mechanical Systems (ADAMS) model to assess secondary effects due to mass centers of gravity that were slightly off the vehicle centerline. It also captured any interference between the Solar Arrays and the Spacecraft Adapter. A comparison of modeling results and accuracy are discussed. Most notably, incorporating a larger SA flange diameter allowed for a natural separation of the Orion and its engine nozzle even at relatively large pitch rates minimizing the kickoff force. Advantages and disadvantages of the Simulink model vs. a full geometric ADAMS model are discussed as well.

Evaluation of Separation Mechanism Design for the Orion/Ares Launch Vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Konno, Kevin E.; Catalano, Daniel A.; Krivanek, Thomas M.

2008-01-01

As a part of the preliminary design work being performed for the Orion vehicle, the Orion to Spacecraft Adaptor (SA) separation mechanism was analyzed and sized, with findings presented here. Sizing is based on worst case abort condition as a result of an anomaly driving the launch vehicle engine thrust vector control hard-over causing a severe vehicle pitch over. This worst case scenario occurs just before Upper Stage Main Engine Cut-Off (MECO) when the vehicle is the lightest and the damping effect due to propellant slosh has been reduced to a minimum. To address this scenario and others, two modeling approaches were invoked. The first approach was a detailed Simulink model to quickly assess the Service Module Engine nozzle to SA clearance for a given separation mechanism. The second approach involved the generation of an Automatic Dynamic Analysis of Mechanical Systems (ADAMS) model to assess secondary effects due to mass centers of gravity that were slightly off the vehicle centerline. It also captured any interference between the Solar Arrays and the Spacecraft Adapter. A comparison of modeling results and accuracy are discussed. Most notably, incorporating a larger SA flange diameter allowed for a natural separation of the Orion and it's engine nozzle even at relatively large pitch rates minimizing the kickoff force. Advantages and disadvantages of the Simulink model vs. a full geometric ADAMS model are discussed as well.

Mars base buildup scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blacic, J. D.

1986-01-01

Two Mars surface based build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second senario, Earth development of an infrastructure to exploit the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first in this scenario relative to the first, but once begun develops rapidly, aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station.

Innovations in science and scenarios for assessment

DOE PAGES

Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Moss, Richard; Parris, Adam

2015-08-29

Scenarios for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) were produced for physical climate and sea level rise with substantial input from disciplinary and regional experts. These scenarios underwent extensive review and were published as NOAA Technical Reports. For land use/cover and socioeconomic conditions, scenarios already developed by other agencies were specified for use in the NCA3. Efforts to enhance participatory scenario planning as an assessment activity were pursued, but with limited success. Issues and challenges included the timing of availability of scenarios, the need for guidance in use of scenarios, the need for approaches to nest information within multiple scalesmore » and sectors, engagement and collaboration of end users in scenario development, and development of integrated scenarios. Future assessments would benefit from an earlier start to scenarios development, the provision of training in addition to guidance documents, new and flexible approaches for nesting information, ongoing engagement and advice from both scientific and end user communities, and the development of consistent and integrated scenarios.« less

Using scenarios to assess possible future impacts of invasive species in the Laurentian Great Lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lauber, T. Bruce; Stedman, Richard C.; Connelly, Nancy A; Rudstam, Lars G.; Ready, Richard C; Poe, Gregory L; Bunnell, David B.; Hook, Tomas O.; Koops, Marten A.; Ludsin, Stuart A.; Rutherford, Edward S; Wittmann, Marion E.

2016-01-01

The expected impacts of invasive species are key considerations in selecting policy responses to potential invasions. But predicting the impacts of invasive species is daunting, particularly in large systems threatened by multiple invasive species, such as North America’s Laurentian Great Lakes. We developed and evaluated a scenario-building process that relied on an expert panel to assess possible future impacts of aquatic invasive species on recreational fishing in the Great Lakes. To maximize its usefulness to policy makers, this process was designed to be implemented relatively rapidly and consider a range of species. The expert panel developed plausible, internally-consistent invasion scenarios for 5 aquatic invasive species, along with subjective probabilities of those scenarios. We describe these scenarios and evaluate this approach for assessing future invasive species impacts. The panel held diverse opinions about the likelihood of the scenarios, and only one scenario with impacts on sportfish species was considered likely by most of the experts. These outcomes are consistent with the literature on scenario building, which advocates for developing a range of plausible scenarios in decision making because the uncertainty of future conditions makes the likelihood of any particular scenario low. We believe that this scenario-building approach could contribute to policy decisions about whether and how to address the possible impacts of invasive species. In this case, scenarios could allow policy makers to narrow the range of possible impacts on Great Lakes fisheries they consider and help set a research agenda for further refining invasive species predictions.

The relation between the quantum discord and quantum teleportation: The physical interpretation of the transition point between different quantum discord decay regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roszak, K.; Cywiński, Ł.

2015-10-01

We study quantum teleportation via Bell-diagonal mixed states of two qubits in the context of the intrinsic properties of the quantum discord. We show that when the quantum-correlated state of the two qubits is used for quantum teleportation, the character of the teleportation efficiency changes substantially depending on the Bell-diagonal-state parameters, which can be seen when the worst-case-scenario or best-case-scenario fidelity is studied. Depending on the parameter range, one of two types of single-qubit states is hardest/easiest to teleport. The transition between these two parameter ranges coincides exactly with the transition between the range of classical correlation decay and quantum correlation decay characteristic for the evolution of the quantum discord. The correspondence provides a physical interpretation for the prominent feature of the decay of the quantum discord.

Dominance, biomass and extinction resistance determine the consequences of biodiversity loss for multiple coastal ecosystem processes.

PubMed

Davies, Thomas W; Jenkins, Stuart R; Kingham, Rachel; Kenworthy, Joseph; Hawkins, Stephen J; Hiddink, Jan G

2011-01-01

Key ecosystem processes such as carbon and nutrient cycling could be deteriorating as a result of biodiversity loss. However, currently we lack the ability to predict the consequences of realistic species loss on ecosystem processes. The aim of this study was to test whether species contributions to community biomass can be used as surrogate measures of their contribution to ecosystem processes. These were gross community productivity in a salt marsh plant assemblage and an intertidal macroalgae assemblage; community clearance of microalgae in sessile suspension feeding invertebrate assemblage; and nutrient uptake in an intertidal macroalgae assemblage. We conducted a series of biodiversity manipulations that represented realistic species extinction sequences in each of the three contrasting assemblages. Species were removed in a subtractive fashion so that biomass was allowed to vary with each species removal, and key ecosystem processes were measured at each stage of community disassembly. The functional contribution of species was directly proportional to their contribution to community biomass in a 1:1 ratio, a relationship that was consistent across three contrasting marine ecosystems and three ecosystem processes. This suggests that the biomass contributed by a species to an assemblage can be used to approximately predict the proportional decline in an ecosystem process when that species is lost. Such predictions represent "worst case scenarios" because, over time, extinction resilient species can offset the loss of biomass associated with the extinction of competitors. We also modelled a "best case scenario" that accounts for compensatory responses by the extant species with the highest per capita contribution to ecosystem processes. These worst and best case scenarios could be used to predict the minimum and maximum species required to sustain threshold values of ecosystem processes in the future.

"It Was the Best of Times, It Was the Worst of Times …": Philosophy of Education in the Contemporary World

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roberts, Peter

2015-01-01

This article considers the state of philosophy of education in our current age and assesses prospects for the future of the field. I argue that as philosophers of education, we live in both the best of times and the worst of times. Developments in one key organisation, the Philosophy of Education Society of Australasia, are examined in relation to…

Forecasts of health care utilization related to pandemic A(H1N1)2009 influenza in the Nord-Pas-de-Calais region, France.

PubMed

Giovannelli, J; Loury, P; Lainé, M; Spaccaferri, G; Hubert, B; Chaud, P

2015-05-01

To describe and evaluate the forecasts of the load that pandemic A(H1N1)2009 influenza would have on the general practitioners (GP) and hospital care systems, especially during its peak, in the Nord-Pas-de-Calais (NPDC) region, France. Modelling study. The epidemic curve was modelled using an assumption of normal distribution of cases. The values for the forecast parameters were estimated from a literature review of observed data from the Southern hemisphere and French Overseas Territories, where the pandemic had already occurred. Two scenarios were considered, one realistic, the other pessimistic, enabling the authors to evaluate the 'reasonable worst case'. Forecasts were then assessed by comparing them with observed data in the NPDC region--of 4 million people. The realistic scenarios forecasts estimated 300,000 cases, 1500 hospitalizations, 225 intensive care units (ICU) admissions for the pandemic wave; 115 hospital beds and 45 ICU beds would be required per day during the peak. The pessimistic scenario's forecasts were 2-3 times higher than the realistic scenario's forecasts. Observed data were: 235,000 cases, 1585 hospitalizations, 58 ICU admissions; and a maximum of 11.6 ICU beds per day. The realistic scenario correctly estimated the temporal distribution of GP and hospitalized cases but overestimated the number of cases admitted to ICU. Obtaining more robust data for parameters estimation--particularly the rate of ICU admission among the population that the authors recommend to use--may provide better forecasts. Copyright © 2015 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mise en Scene: Conversion of Scenarios to CSP Traces for the Requirements-to-Design-to-Code Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carter. John D.; Gardner, William B.; Rash, James L.; Hinchey, Michael G.

2007-01-01

The "Requirements-to-Design-to-Code" (R2D2C) project at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center is based on deriving a formal specification expressed in Communicating Sequential Processes (CSP) notation from system requirements supplied in the form of CSP traces. The traces, in turn, are to be extracted from scenarios, a user-friendly medium often used to describe the required behavior of computer systems under development. This work, called Mise en Scene, defines a new scenario medium (Scenario Notation Language, SNL) suitable for control-dominated systems, coupled with a two-stage process for automatic translation of scenarios to a new trace medium (Trace Notation Language, TNL) that encompasses CSP traces. Mise en Scene is offered as an initial solution to the problem of the scenarios-to-traces "D2" phase of R2D2C. A survey of the "scenario" concept and some case studies are also provided.

Exploring the reversibility of marine climate change impacts in temperature overshoot scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zickfeld, K.; Li, X.; Tokarska, K.; Kohfeld, K. E.

2017-12-01

Artificial carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere has been proposed as a measure for mitigating climate change and restoring the climate system to a `safe' state after overshoot. Previous studies have demonstrated that the changes in surface air temperature due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions can be reversed through CDR, while some oceanic properties, for example thermosteric sea level rise, show a delay in their response to CDR. This research aims to investigate the reversibility of changes in ocean conditions after implementation of CDR with a focus on ocean biogeochemical properties. To achieve this, we analyze climate model simulations based on two sets of emission scenarios. We first use RCP2.6 and its extension until year 2300 as the reference scenario and design several temperature and cumulative CO2 emissions "overshoot" scenarios based on other RCPs, which represents cases with less ambitious mitigation policies in the near term that temporarily exceed the 2 °C target adopted by the Paris Agreement. In addition, we use a set of emission scenarios with a reference scenario limiting warming to 1.5°C in the long term and two overshoot scenarios. The University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM), a climate model of intermediate complexity, is forced with these emission scenarios. We compare the response of select ocean variables (seawater temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen) in the overshoot scenarios to that in the respective reference scenario at the time the same amount of cumulative emissions is achieved. Our results suggest that the overshoot and subsequent return to a reference CO2 cumulative emissions level would leave substantial impacts on the marine environment. Although the changes in global mean sea surface variables (temperature, pH and dissolved oxygen) are largely reversible, global mean ocean temperature, dissolved oxygen and pH differ significantly from those in the reference scenario. Large ocean areas exhibit

Cardiac imaging with multi-sector data acquisition in volumetric CT: variation of effective temporal resolution and its potential clinical consequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Xiangyang; Hsieh, Jiang; Taha, Basel H.; Vass, Melissa L.; Seamans, John L.; Okerlund, Darin R.

2009-02-01

With increasing longitudinal detector dimension available in diagnostic volumetric CT, step-and-shoot scan is becoming popular for cardiac imaging. In comparison to helical scan, step-and-shoot scan decouples patient table movement from cardiac gating/triggering, which facilitates the cardiac imaging via multi-sector data acquisition, as well as the administration of inter-cycle heart beat variation (arrhythmia) and radiation dose efficiency. Ideally, a multi-sector data acquisition can improve temporal resolution at a factor the same as the number of sectors (best scenario). In reality, however, the effective temporal resolution is jointly determined by gantry rotation speed and patient heart beat rate, which may significantly lower than the ideal or no improvement (worst scenario). Hence, it is clinically relevant to investigate the behavior of effective temporal resolution in cardiac imaging with multi-sector data acquisition. In this study, a 5-second cine scan of a porcine heart, which cascades 6 porcine cardiac cycles, is acquired. In addition to theoretical analysis and motion phantom study, the clinical consequences due to the effective temporal resolution variation are evaluated qualitative or quantitatively. By employing a 2-sector image reconstruction strategy, a total of 15 (the permutation of P(6, 2)) cases between the best and worst scenarios are studied, providing informative guidance for the design and optimization of CT cardiac imaging in volumetric CT with multi-sector data acquisition.

Decision- rather than scenario-centred downscaling: Towards smarter use of climate model outputs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilby, Robert L.

2013-04-01

Climate model output has been used for hydrological impact assessments for at least 25 years. Scenario-led methods raise awareness about risks posed by climate variability and change to the security of supplies, performance of water infrastructure, and health of freshwater ecosystems. However, it is less clear how these analyses translate into actionable information for adaptation. One reason is that scenario-led methods typically yield very large uncertainty bounds in projected impacts at regional and river catchment scales. Consequently, there is growing interest in vulnerability-based frameworks and strategies for employing climate model output in decision-making contexts. This talk begins by summarising contrasting perspectives on climate models and principles for testing their utility for water sector applications. Using selected examples it is then shown how water resource systems may be adapted with varying levels of reliance on climate model information. These approaches include the conventional scenario-led risk assessment, scenario-neutral strategies, safety margins and sensitivity testing, and adaptive management of water systems. The strengths and weaknesses of each approach are outlined and linked to selected water management activities. These cases show that much progress can be made in managing water systems without dependence on climate models. Low-regret measures such as improved forecasting, better inter-agency co-operation, and contingency planning, yield benefits regardless of the climate outlook. Nonetheless, climate model scenarios are useful for evaluating adaptation portfolios, identifying system thresholds and fixing weak links, exploring the timing of investments, improving operating rules, or developing smarter licensing regimes. The most problematic application remains the climate change safety margin because of the very low confidence in extreme precipitation and river flows generated by climate models. In such cases, it is necessary to

Do environmental dynamics matter in fate models? Exploring scenario dynamics for a terrestrial and an aquatic system.

PubMed

Morselli, Melissa; Terzaghi, Elisa; Di Guardo, Antonio

2018-01-24

Nowadays, there is growing interest in inserting more ecological realism into risk assessment of chemicals. On the exposure evaluation side, this can be done by studying the complexity of exposure in the ecosystem, niche partitioning, e.g. variation of the exposure scenario. Current regulatory predictive approaches, to ensure simplicity and predictive ability, generally keep the scenario as static as possible. This could lead to under or overprediction of chemical exposure depending on the chemical and scenario simulated. To account for more realistic exposure conditions, varying temporally and spatially, additional scenario complexity should be included in currently used models to improve their predictive ability. This study presents two case studies (a terrestrial and an aquatic one) in which some polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were simulated with the SoilPlusVeg and ChimERA models to show the importance of scenario variation in time (biotic and abiotic compartments). The results outlined the importance of accounting for planetary boundary layer variation and vegetation dynamics to accurately predict air concentration changes and the timing of chemical dispersion from the source in terrestrial systems. For the aquatic exercise, the results indicated the need to account for organic carbon forms (particulate and dissolved organic carbon) and vegetation biomass dynamics. In both cases the range of variation was up to two orders of magnitude depending on the congener and scenario, reinforcing the need for incorporating such knowledge into exposure assessment.

The clinical importance of changes in the 0 to 10 numeric rating scale for worst, least, and average pain intensity: analyses of data from clinical trials of duloxetine in pain disorders.

PubMed

Farrar, John T; Pritchett, Yili L; Robinson, Michael; Prakash, Apurva; Chappell, Amy

2010-02-01

Data on 1,700 patients pooled from 5 randomized, placebo-controlled duloxetine studies (3 in diabetic peripheral neuropathic pain and 2 in fibromyalgia) were analyzed to determine clinically important differences (CIDs) in the 0 to 10 Numeric Rating Scale-Pain Intensity (NRS-PI) for patient-reported "worst" and "least" pain intensity while validating the previously published level for "average" pain. The correspondence between the baseline-to-endpoint raw and percentage change in the NRS-PI for the worst, least, and average pain were compared to patients' perceived improvements at endpoint as measured by the 7-point Patient Global Impression of Improvement (PGI-I) scales. Stratification by baseline pain separated the raw but not the percent change scores. The PGI-I category of "much better" or above was our a priori definition of a CID. Cutoff points for the NRS-PI change scores were determined using a receiver operator curve analysis. A consistent relationship between the worst and average NRS-PI percent change and the PGI-I was demonstrated regardless of the study, pain type, age, sex, or treatment group with a reduction of approximately 34%. The least pain item CID was slightly higher at 41%. Raw change CID cutoff points were approximately -2, -2.5 and -3 for least, average, and worst pain respectively. We determined an anchor-based value for the change in the worst, least, and average pain intensity items of the Brief Pain Inventory that best represents a clinically important difference. Our findings support a standard definition of a clinically important difference in clinical trials of chronic-pain therapies. Copyright 2010 American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The impact of traffic emissions on air quality in the Berlin-Brandenburg region - a case study on cycling scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuik, F.; Lauer, A.; von Schneidemesser, E.; Butler, T. M.

2016-12-01

Many European cities continue to struggle with exceedances of NO2 limit values at measurement sites near roads, of which a large contribution is attributed to emissions from traffic. In this study, we explore how urban air quality can be improved with different traffic measures using the example of the Berlin-Brandenburg region. In order to simulate urban background air quality we use the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) at a horizontal resolution of 1km. We use emission input data at a horizontal resolution of 1km obtained by downscaling TNO-MACC III emissions based on local proxy data including population and traffic densities. In addition we use a statistical approach combining the simulated urban background concentrations with information on traffic densities to estimate NO2 at street level. This helps assessing whether the emission scenarios studied here can lead to significant reductions in NO2 concentrations at street level. The emission scenarios in this study represent a range of scenarios in which car traffic is replaced with bicycle traffic. Part of this study was an initial discussion phase with stakeholders, including policy makers and NGOs. The discussions have shown that the different stakeholders are interested in a scientific assessment of the impact of replacing car traffic with bicycle traffic in the Berlin-Brandenburg urban area. Local policy makers responsible for city planning and implementing traffic measures can make best use of scientific modeling results if input data and scenarios are as realistic as possible. For these reasons, the scenarios cover very idealized optimistic ("all passenger cars are replaced by bicycles") and pessimistic ("all cyclists are replaced by cars") scenarios to explore the sensitivity of simulated urban background air quality to these changes, as well as additional scenarios based on city-specific data to analyze more realistic situations. Of particular interest is how these impact

KSC-98pc970

NASA Image and Video Library

1998-08-20

In Firing Room 1 at KSC, Shuttle launch team members put the Shuttle system through an integrated simulation. The control room is set up with software used to simulate flight and ground systems in the launch configuration. A Simulation Team, comprised of KSC engineers, introduce 12 or more major problems to prepare the launch team for worst-case scenarios. Such tests and simulations keep the Shuttle launch team sharp and ready for liftoff. The next liftoff is targeted for Oct. 29

The KSC Simulation Team practices for contingencies in Firing Room 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1998-01-01

In Firing Room 1 at KSC, Shuttle launch team members put the Shuttle system through an integrated simulation. The control room is set up with software used to simulate flight and ground systems in the launch configuration. A Simulation Team, comprised of KSC engineers, introduce 12 or more major problems to prepare the launch team for worst-case scenarios. Such tests and simulations keep the Shuttle launch team sharp and ready for liftoff. The next liftoff is targeted for Oct. 29.

DEVELOPMENT OF IMPACT ORIENTED CLIMATE SCENARIOS

EPA Science Inventory

Appropriate scenarios of future climate must be developed prior to any assessment of the impacts of climate change. he information needed by impact assessors was examined in consultation with those having experience in scenario use. ost assessors require regional scenarios with a...

Evaluating landfill aftercare strategies: A life cycle assessment approach.

PubMed

Turner, David A; Beaven, Richard P; Woodman, Nick D

2017-05-01

This study investigates the potential impacts caused by the loss of active environmental control measures during the aftercare period of landfill management. A combined mechanistic solute flow model and life cycle assessment (LCA) approach was used to evaluate the potential impacts of leachate emissions over a 10,000year time horizon. A continuum of control loss possibilities occurring at different times and for different durations were investigated for four different basic aftercare scenarios, including a typical aftercare scenario involving a low permeability cap and three accelerated aftercare scenarios involving higher initial infiltration rates. Assuming a 'best case' where control is never lost, the largest potential impacts resulted from the typical aftercare scenario. The maximum difference between potential impacts from the 'best case' and the 'worst case', where control fails at the earliest possible point and is never reinstated, was only a fourfold increase. This highlights potential deficiencies in standard life cycle impact assessment practice, which are discussed. Nevertheless, the results show how the influence of active control loss on the potential impacts of landfilling varies considerably depending on the aftercare strategy used and highlight the importance that leachate treatment efficiencies have upon impacts. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Proposed Requirements-driven User-scenario Development Protocol for the Belmont Forum E-Infrastructure and Data Management Cooperative Research Agreement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wee, B.; Car, N.; Percivall, G.; Allen, D.; Fitch, P. G.; Baumann, P.; Waldmann, H. C.

2014-12-01

The Belmont Forum E-Infrastructure and Data Management Cooperative Research Agreement (CRA) is designed to foster a global community to collaborate on e-infrastructure challenges. One of the deliverables is an implementation plan to address global data infrastructure interoperability challenges and align existing domestic and international capabilities. Work package three (WP3) of the CRA focuses on the harmonization of global data infrastructure for sharing environmental data. One of the subtasks under WP3 is the development of user scenarios that guide the development of applicable deliverables. This paper describes the proposed protocol for user scenario development. It enables the solicitation of user scenarios from a broad constituency, and exposes the mechanisms by which those solicitations are evaluated against requirements that map to the Belmont Challenge. The underlying principle of traceability forms the basis for a structured, requirements-driven approach resulting in work products amenable to trade-off analyses and objective prioritization. The protocol adopts the ISO Reference Model for Open Distributed Processing (RM-ODP) as a top level framework. User scenarios are developed within RM-ODP's "Enterprise Viewpoint". To harmonize with existing frameworks, the protocol utilizes the conceptual constructs of "scenarios", "use cases", "use case categories", and use case templates as adopted by recent GEOSS Architecture Implementation Project (AIP) deliverables and CSIRO's eReefs project. These constructs are encapsulated under the larger construct of "user scenarios". Once user scenarios are ranked by goodness-of-fit to the Belmont Challenge, secondary scoring metrics may be generated, like goodness-of-fit to FutureEarth science themes. The protocol also facilitates an assessment of the ease of implementing given user scenario using existing GEOSS AIP deliverables. In summary, the protocol results in a traceability graph that can be extended to coordinate

Self-reported worst injuries in women's Australian football identify lower limb injuries as a prevention priority

PubMed Central

Fortington, Lauren V; Donaldson, Alex; Finch, Caroline F

2016-01-01

Background Increasing participation by women in Australian football (AF) has made understanding their specific injury prevention needs a priority. In other sports, men and women have different injury profiles. This study aims to provide the first overview of self-reported injuries in women's AF. Methods Nationwide survey of women aged 17+ years who played in an AF competition was conducted following the 2014 playing season. The players' self-reported worst injury from the 2014 season is presented according to injury type, body part injured, treatment sought and games/training missed. Results Three-quarters of 553 respondents (n=431, 78%) reported at least 1 injury. Over half (n=235, 55%) of injuries were to the lower limb. Ankle ligament tears/sprains (n=50, 12% of all injuries) and knee ligament tears/sprains (n=45, 10%) were most frequent lower limb injuries reported. Two-thirds (65%) of all lower limb injuries led to at least 1 missed game. Of 111 (26% of all injuries) upper limb injuries reported, over half (n=57, 62%) were to the hand/fingers/thumb, including fractures (n=28, 6% of all injuries), ligament tears/sprains (n=18, 4%) and dislocations (n=11, 3%). Half of the upper limb injuries (51%) resulted in players missing matches/training. Conclusions The most frequent self-reported worst injuries for women playing AF were joint damage to the ankle and knee. A prospective injury study is needed to confirm the causes and rate of these lower limb injuries to identify the most suitable prevention interventions. PMID:27900178

A Usability and Learnability Case Study of Glass Flight Deck Interfaces and Pilot Interactions through Scenario-based Training

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Cino, Thomas J., II

In the aviation industry, digitally produced and presented flight, navigation, and aircraft information is commonly referred to as glass flight decks. Glass flight decks are driven by computer-based subsystems and have long been a part of military and commercial aviation sectors. Over the past 15 years, the General Aviation (GA) sector of the aviation industry has become a recent beneficiary of the rapid advancement of computer-based glass flight deck (GFD) systems. While providing the GA pilot considerable enhancements in the quality of information about the status and operations of the aircraft, training pilots on the use of glass flight decks is often delivered with traditional methods (e.g. textbooks, PowerPoint presentations, user manuals, and limited computer-based training modules). These training methods have been reported as less than desirable in learning to use the glass flight deck interface. Difficulties in achieving a complete understanding of functional and operational characteristics of the GFD systems, acquiring a full understanding of the interrelationships of the varied subsystems, and handling the wealth of flight information provided have been reported. Documented pilot concerns of poor user experience and satisfaction, and problems with the learning the complex and sophisticated interface of the GFD are additional issues with current pilot training approaches. A case study was executed to explore ways to improve training using GFD systems at a Midwestern aviation university. The researcher investigated if variations in instructional systems design and training methods for learning glass flight deck technology would affect the perceptions and attitudes of pilots of the learnability (an attribute of usability) of the glass flight deck interface. Specifically, this study investigated the effectiveness of scenario-based training (SBT) methods to potentially improve pilot knowledge and understanding of a GFD system, and overall pilot user

Patients with the worst outcomes after paracetamol (acetaminophen)-induced liver failure have an early monocytopenia.

PubMed

Moore, J K; MacKinnon, A C; Man, T Y; Manning, J R; Forbes, S J; Simpson, K J

2017-02-01

Acute liver failure (ALF) is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Studies have implicated the immune response, especially monocyte/macrophages as being important in dictating outcome. To investigate changes in the circulating monocytes and other immune cells serially in patients with ALF, relate these with cytokine concentrations, monocyte gene expression and patient outcome. In a prospective case-control study in the Scottish Liver Transplant Unit, Royal Infirmary Edinburgh, 35 consecutive patients admitted with paracetamol-induced liver failure (POD-ALF), 10 patients with non-paracetamol causes of ALF and 16 controls were recruited. The peripheral blood monocyte phenotype was analysed by flow cytometry, circulating cytokines quantified by protein array and monocyte gene expression array performed and related to outcome. On admission, patients with worst outcomes after POD-ALF had a significant monocytopenia, characterised by reduced classical and expanded intermediate monocyte population. This was associated with reduced circulating lymphocytes and natural killer cells, peripheral cytokine patterns suggestive of a 'cytokine storm' and increased concentrations of cytokines associated with monocyte egress from the bone marrow. Gene expression array did not differentiate patient outcome. At day 4, there was no significant difference in monocyte, lymphocyte or natural killer cells between survivors and the patients with adverse outcomes. Severe paracetamol liver failure is associated with profound changes in the peripheral blood compartment, particularly in monocytes, related with worse outcomes. This is not seen in patients with non-paracetamol-induced liver failure. Significant monocytopenia on admission may allow earlier clarification of prognosis, and it highlights a potential target for therapeutic intervention. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Industrial research for transmutation scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camarcat, Noel; Garzenne, Claude; Le Mer, Joël; Leroyer, Hadrien; Desroches, Estelle; Delbecq, Jean-Michel

2011-04-01

This article presents the results of research scenarios for americium transmutation in a 22nd century French nuclear fleet, using sodium fast breeder reactors. We benchmark the americium transmutation benefits and drawbacks with a reference case consisting of a hypothetical 60 GWe fleet of pure plutonium breeders. The fluxes in the various parts of the cycle (reactors, fabrication plants, reprocessing plants and underground disposals) are calculated using EDF's suite of codes, comparable in capabilities to those of other research facilities. We study underground thermal heat load reduction due to americium partitioning and repository area minimization. We endeavor to estimate the increased technical complexity of surface facilities to handle the americium fluxes in special fuel fabrication plants, americium fast burners, special reprocessing shops, handling equipments and transport casks between those facilities.

Ash fallout scenarios at Vesuvius: Numerical simulations and implications for hazard assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macedonio, G.; Costa, A.; Folch, A.

2008-12-01

Volcanic ash fallout subsequent to a possible renewal of the Vesuvius activity represents a serious threat to the highly urbanized area around the volcano. In order to assess the relative hazard we consider three different possible scenarios such as those following Plinian, Sub-Plinian, and violent Strombolian eruptions. Reference eruptions for each scenario are similar to the 79 AD (Pompeii), the 1631 AD (or 472 AD) and the 1944 AD Vesuvius events, respectively. Fallout deposits for the first two scenarios are modeled using HAZMAP, a model based on a semi-analytical solution of the 2D advection-diffusion-sedimentation equation. In contrast, fallout following a violent Strombolian event is modeled by means of FALL3D, a numerical model based on the solution of the full 3D advection-diffusion-sedimentation equation which is valid also within the atmospheric boundary layer. Inputs for models are total erupted mass, eruption column height, bulk grain-size, bulk component distribution, and a statistical set of wind profiles obtained by the NCEP/NCAR re-analysis. We computed ground load probability maps for different ash loadings. In the case of a Sub-Plinian scenario, the most representative tephra loading maps in 16 cardinal directions were also calculated. The probability maps obtained for the different scenarios are aimed to give support to the risk mitigation strategies.

Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin; Warren, Drake Edward; Hayden, Nancy Kay

This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

Ranking landscape development scenarios affecting natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) population dynamics in Central Poland.

PubMed

Franz, Kamila W; Romanowski, Jerzy; Johst, Karin; Grimm, Volker

2013-01-01

When data are limited it is difficult for conservation managers to assess alternative management scenarios and make decisions. The natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) is declining at the edges of its distribution range in Europe and little is known about its current distribution and abundance in Poland. Although different landscape management plans for central Poland exist, it is unclear to what extent they impact this species. Based on these plans, we investigated how four alternative landscape development scenarios would affect the total carrying capacity and population dynamics of the natterjack toad. To facilitate decision-making, we first ranked the scenarios according to their total carrying capacity. We used the software RAMAS GIS to determine the size and location of habitat patches in the landscape. The estimated carrying capacities were very similar for each scenario, and clear ranking was not possible. Only the reforestation scenario showed a marked loss in carrying capacity. We therefore simulated metapopulation dynamics with RAMAS taking into account dynamical processes such as reproduction and dispersal and ranked the scenarios according to the resulting species abundance. In this case, we could clearly rank the development scenarios. We identified road mortality of adults as a key process governing the dynamics and separating the different scenarios. The renaturalisation scenario clearly ranked highest due to its decreased road mortality. Taken together our results suggest that road infrastructure development might be much more important for natterjack toad conservation than changes in the amount of habitat in the semi-natural river valley. We gained these insights by considering both the resulting metapopulation structure and dynamics in the form of a PVA. We conclude that the consideration of dynamic processes in amphibian conservation management may be indispensable for ranking management scenarios.

Evaluating firms' R&D performance using best worst method.

PubMed

Salimi, Negin; Rezaei, Jafar

2018-02-01

Since research and development (R&D) is the most critical determinant of the productivity, growth and competitive advantage of firms, measuring R&D performance has become the core of attention of R&D managers, and an extensive body of literature has examined and identified different R&D measurements and determinants of R&D performance. However, measuring R&D performance and assigning the same level of importance to different R&D measures, which is the common approach in existing studies, can oversimplify the R&D measuring process, which may result in misinterpretation of the performance and consequently fallacy R&D strategies. The aim of this study is to measure R&D performance taking into account the different levels of importance of R&D measures, using a multi-criteria decision-making method called Best Worst Method (BWM) to identify the weights (importance) of R&D measures and measure the R&D performance of 50 high-tech SMEs in the Netherlands using the data gathered in a survey among SMEs and from R&D experts. The results show how assigning different weights to different R&D measures (in contrast to simple mean) results in a different ranking of the firms and allow R&D managers to formulate more effective strategies to improve their firm's R&D performance by applying knowledge regarding the importance of different R&D measures. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Use of biocidal products (insect sprays and electro-vaporizer) in indoor areas--exposure scenarios and exposure modeling.

PubMed

Berger-Preiss, Edith; Koch, Wolfgang; Gerling, Susanne; Kock, Heiko; Appel, Klaus E

2009-09-01

Five commercially available insect sprays were applied in a model room. Spraying was performed in accordance with the manufacturers' instructions and in an overdosed manner in order to simulate worst-case conditions or an unforeseeable misuse. In addition, we examined electro-vaporizers. The Respicon aerosol monitoring system was applied to determine inhalation exposure. During normal spraying (10 seconds) and during the following 2-3 minutes, exposure concentrations ranged from 70 to 590 microg/m3 for the pyrethroids tetramethrin, d-phenothrin, cyfluthrin, bioallethrin, and the pyrethrins. Calculated inhalable doses were 2-16 microg. A concentration of approximately 850 microg chlorpyrifos/m(3) (inhalable dose: approximately 20 microg) was determined when the "Contra insect fly spray" was applied. Highest exposure concentrations (1100-2100 microg/m3) were measured for piperonyl butoxide (PBO), corresponding to an inhalation intake of 30-60microg. When simulating worst-case conditions, exposure concentrations of 200-3400microg/m3 and inhalable doses of 10-210microg were determined for the various active substances. Highest concentrations (4800-8000 microg/m3) were measured for PBO (inhalable: 290-480 microg). By applying the electro-vaporizer "Nexa Lotte" plug-in mosquito killer concentrations for d-allethrin were in the range of 5-12microg/m3 and 0.5-2 microg/m3 for PBO while with the "Paral" plug-in mosquito killer concentrations of 0.4-5microg/m3 for pyrethrins and 1-7 microg/m3 for PBO were measured. Potential dermal exposures were determined using exposure pads. Between 80 and 1000microg active substance (tetramethrin, phenothrin, cyfluthrin, bioallethrin, pyrethrins, chlorpyrifos) were deposited on the clothing of the total body surface area of the spray user. Highest levels (up to 3000 microg) were determined for PBO. Worst-case uses of the sprays led to 5-9 times higher concentrations. Also a 2-hour stay nearby an operating electro-vaporizer led to a

SU-C-19A-07: Influence of Immobilization On Plan Robustness in the Treatment of Head and Neck Cancer with IMPT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bues, M; Anand, A; Liu, W

2014-06-15

Purpose: We evaluated the effect of interposing immobilization devices into the beam's path on the robustness of a head and neck plan. Methods: An anthropomorphic head phantom was placed into a preliminary prototype of a specialized head and neck immobilization device for proton beam therapy. The device consists of a hard low density shell, a custom mold insert, and thermoplastic mask to immobilize the patient's head in the shell. This device was provided by CIVCO Medical Solutions for the purpose of evaluation of suitability for proton beam therapy. See Figure 1. Two pairs of treatment plans were generated. The firstmore » plan in each pair was a reference plan including only the anthropomorphic phantom, and the second plan in each pair included the immobilization device. In all other respects the plans within the pair were identical. Results: In the case of the simple plan the degradation of plan robustness was found to be clinically insignificant. In this case, target coverage in the worst case scenario was reduced from 95% of the target volume receiving 96.5% of prescription dose to 95% of the target volume receiving 96.3% of prescription dose by introducing the immobilization device. In the case of the complex plan, target coverage of the boost volume in the worst case scenario was reduced from 95% of the boost target volume receiving 97% of prescription dose to 95% of the boost target volume receiving 83% of prescription dose by introducing the immobilization device. See Figure 2. Conclusion: Immobilization devices may have a deleterious effect on plan robustness. Evaluation of the preliminary prototype revealed a variable impact on the plan robustness depending of the complexity of the case. Brian Morse is an employee of CIVCO Medical Solutions.« less

Fertilizer Emission Scenario Tool for crop management system scenarios

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Fertilizer Emission Scenario Tool for CMAQ is a high-end computer interface that simulates daily fertilizer application information for any gridded domain. It integrates the Weather Research and Forecasting model and CMAQ.

Radioactive waste management treatments: A selection for the Italian scenario

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Locatelli, G.; Mancini, M.; Sardini, M.

2012-07-01

The increased attention for radioactive waste management is one of the most peculiar aspects of the nuclear sector considering both reactors and not power sources. The aim of this paper is to present the state-of-art of treatments for radioactive waste management all over the world in order to derive guidelines for the radioactive waste management in the Italian scenario. Starting with an overview on the international situation, it analyses the different sources, amounts, treatments, social and economic impacts looking at countries with different industrial backgrounds, energetic policies, geography and population. It lists all these treatments and selects the most reasonablemore » according to technical, economic and social criteria. In particular, a double scenario is discussed (to be considered in case of few quantities of nuclear waste): the use of regional, centralized, off site processing facilities, which accept waste from many nuclear plants, and the use of mobile systems, which can be transported among multiple nuclear sites for processing campaigns. At the end the treatments suitable for the Italian scenario are presented providing simplified work-flows and guidelines. (authors)« less

Planning Education for Regional Economic Integration: The Case of Paraguay and MERCOSUR.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McGinn, Noel

This paper examines the possible impact of MERCOSUR on Paraguay's economic and educational systems. MERCOSUR is a trade agreement among Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay, under which terms all import tariffs among the countries will be eliminated by 1994. The countries will enter into a common economic market. The worst-case scenario…

Tracking Systems for Virtual Rehabilitation: Objective Performance vs. Subjective Experience. A Practical Scenario

PubMed Central

Lloréns, Roberto; Noé, Enrique; Naranjo, Valery; Borrego, Adrián; Latorre, Jorge; Alcañiz, Mariano

2015-01-01

Motion tracking systems are commonly used in virtual reality-based interventions to detect movements in the real world and transfer them to the virtual environment. There are different tracking solutions based on different physical principles, which mainly define their performance parameters. However, special requirements have to be considered for rehabilitation purposes. This paper studies and compares the accuracy and jitter of three tracking solutions (optical, electromagnetic, and skeleton tracking) in a practical scenario and analyzes the subjective perceptions of 19 healthy subjects, 22 stroke survivors, and 14 physical therapists. The optical tracking system provided the best accuracy (1.074 ± 0.417 cm) while the electromagnetic device provided the most inaccurate results (11.027 ± 2.364 cm). However, this tracking solution provided the best jitter values (0.324 ± 0.093 cm), in contrast to the skeleton tracking, which had the worst results (1.522 ± 0.858 cm). Healthy individuals and professionals preferred the skeleton tracking solution rather than the optical and electromagnetic solution (in that order). Individuals with stroke chose the optical solution over the other options. Our results show that subjective perceptions and preferences are far from being constant among different populations, thus suggesting that these considerations, together with the performance parameters, should be also taken into account when designing a rehabilitation system. PMID:25808765

Exploring NASA Human Spaceflight and Pioneering Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zapata, Edgar; Wilhite, Alan

2015-01-01

The life cycle cost analysis of space exploration scenarios is explored via a merger of (1) scenario planning, separating context and (2) modeling and analysis of specific content. Numerous scenarios are presented, leading to cross-cutting recommendations addressing life cycle costs, productivity, and approaches applicable to any scenarios. Approaches address technical and non-technical factors.

Assessing the concentrations and risks of toxicity from the antibiotics ciprofloxacin, sulfamethoxazole, trimethoprim and erythromycin in European rivers.

PubMed

Johnson, Andrew C; Keller, Virginie; Dumont, Egon; Sumpter, John P

2015-04-01

This study evaluated the potential concentrations of four antibiotics: ciprofloxacin (CIP), sulfamethoxazole (SUF), trimethoprim (TRI) and erythromycin (ERY) throughout the rivers of Europe. This involved reviewing national consumption rates together with assessing excretion and sewage treatment removal rates. From this information, it was possible to construct best, expected and worst case scenarios for the discharge of these antibiotics into rivers. Consumption data showed surprising variations, up to 200-fold in the popularity of different antibiotics across different European nations. Using the water resources model GWAVA which has a spatial resolution of approximately 6×9 km, river water concentrations throughout Europe were predicted based on 31-year climate data. The modelled antibiotic concentrations were within the range of measurements reported previously in European effluents and rivers. With the expected scenario, the predicted annual-average antibiotic concentrations ranged between 0 and 10 ng/L for 90% by length of surface waters. In the worst case scenario concentrations could reach between 0.1 and 1 μg/L at the most exposed locations. As both predicted and observed sewage effluent concentrations were below reported effect levels for the most sensitive aquatic wildlife, no direct toxicity in rivers is expected. Predicted river concentrations for CIP and ERY were closest to effect levels in wildlife, followed by SUF which was 2-3 orders of magnitude lower. TRI appeared to be of the least concern with around 6 orders of magnitude difference between predicted and effect levels. However, mixture toxicity may elevate this risk and antibiotic levels of 0.1-1 μg/L in hotspots may contribute to local environmental antibiotic resistance in microorganisms. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the conterminous US to the year 2100 as part of the Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. The report was prepared by the Global Change Research Program (GCRP) in the National Center for Environmental Assessment (NCEA) of the Office of Research and Development (ORD) at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The ICLUS report describes the methods used to develop land-use scenarios by decade from the year 2000 to 2100 that are consistent with these storylines.

The environmental sustainability of sugarcane cultivation under scenarios of climate change: case studies for Brazil and Ghana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Black, E.; Vidale, P. L.; Verhoef, A.; Cuadro, S. V.

2012-04-01

Over the next decades increasing oil and carbon prices will lead to a proliferation of energy crop cultivation initiatives. Many of these will be based in developing countries, and hence will affect some of the poorest people in the world. The capacity of such initiatives to alleviate poverty in the long term depends on their environmental sustainability. Specifically, the exploitation of water resources in an unsustainable manner may permanently damage vulnerable ecosystems and ultimately deepen poverty. These issues have motivated a collaborative project - Integrated Carbon, Water and Land Management for Poverty Alleviation (ICWALPA), which asks whether the export of bio-fuel technology from Brazil to Ghana will alleviate poverty. This presentation will describe the initial results from ICWALPA - including the development of an integrated environmental modelling framework and its application to sugarcane cultivation under scenarios of climate change. The environmental model used to represent the biophysical interactions is process-based and implemented in the framework of the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES). Crop growth is predicted dynamically by accumulating the carbon assimilated during photosynthesis and is then allocated according to well-established allometric principles. Two contrasting case studies will be presented: the Sao Paulo region of Brazil (where there is an established sugarcane industry) and the Daka River region of Ghana (where commercial sugarcane cultivation is planned). We show that our model is capable of reproducing both the spatial and temporal variability in sugarcane yield for the Sao Paulo province of Brazil - lending credence to the projections for Ghana. For Ghana, we show that, providing there is sufficient irrigation, it is possible to generate approximately 75% of the yield achieved in the Sao Paulo province. In the final part of the study, the behaviour of sugarcane under an idealized climate change scenario is

Scenarios of global mercury emissions from anthropogenic sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rafaj, P.; Bertok, I.; Cofala, J.; Schöpp, W.

2013-11-01

This paper discusses the impact of air quality and climate policies on global mercury emissions in the time horizon up to 2050. Evolution of mercury emissions is based on projections of energy consumption for a scenario without any global greenhouse gas mitigation efforts, and for a 2 °C climate policy scenario, which assumes internationally coordinated action to mitigate climate change. The assessment takes into account current air quality legislation in each country, as well as provides estimates of maximum feasible reductions in mercury through 2050. Results indicate significant scope for co-benefits of climate policies for mercury emissions. Atmospheric releases of mercury from anthropogenic sources under the global climate mitigation regime are reduced in 2050 by 45% when compared to the case without climate measures. Around one third of world-wide co-benefits for mercury emissions by 2050 occur in China. An annual Hg-abatement of about 800 tons is estimated for the coal combustion in power sector if the current air pollution legislation and climate policies are adopted in parallel.

Evaluation of alternative future energy scenarios for Brazil using an energy mix model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coelho, Maysa Joppert

The purpose of this study is to model and assess the performance and the emissions impacts of electric energy technologies in Brazil, based on selected economic scenarios, for a time frame of 40 years, taking the year of 1995 as a base year. A Base scenario has been developed, for each of three economic development projections, based upon a sectoral analysis. Data regarding the characteristics of over 300 end-use technologies and 400 energy conversion technologies have been collected. The stand-alone MARKAL technology-based energy-mix model, first developed at Brookhaven National Laboratory, was applied to a base case study and five alternative case studies, for each economic scenario. The alternative case studies are: (1) minimum increase in the thermoelectric contribution to the power production system of 20 percent after 2010; (2) extreme values for crude oil price; (3) minimum increase in the renewable technologies contribution to the power production system of 20 percent after 2010; (4) uncertainty on the cost of future renewable conversion technologies; and (5) model is forced to use the natural gas plants committed to be built in the country. Results such as the distribution of fuel used for power generation, electricity demand across economy sectors, total CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels for power generation, shadow price (marginal cost) of technologies, and others, are evaluated and compared to the Base scenarios previous established. Among some key findings regarding the Brazilian energy system it may be inferred that: (1) diesel technologies are estimated to be the most cost-effective thermal technology in the country; (2) wind technology is estimated to be the most cost-effective technology to be used when a minimum share of renewables is imposed to the system; and (3) hydroelectric technologies present the highest cost/benefit relation among all conversion technologies considered. These results are subject to the limitations of key input

Future Climate Prediction of Urban Atmosphere in A Tropical Megacity: Utilization of RCP/SSP Scenarios with an Urban Growth Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darmanto, N. S.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.; Takakuwa, S.

2016-12-01

Economic development in Southeast Asia megacities leads to rapid transformation into more complicated urban configurations. These configurations, including building geometry, enhance aerodynamic drag thus reducing near-surface wind speeds. Roughness parameters representing building geometry, along with anthropogenic heat emissions, contribute to the formation of urban heat islands (UHI). All these have been reproduced successfully in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with an improved single-layer urban canopy model incorporating a realistic distribution of urban parameters and anthropogenic heat emission in the Jakarta Greater Area. We apply this technology to climate change studies by introducing future urbanization defined by urban sprawl, vertical rise in buildings, and increase anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) due to population changes, into futuristic climate modelling. To simulate 2050s future climate, pseudo-global warming method was used which relied on current and ensembles of 5 CMIP5 GCMs for 2 representative concentration pathways (RCP), 2.6 and 8.5. To determine future urbanization level, 2050 population growth and energy consumption were estimated from shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP). This allows the estimation of future urban sprawl, building geometry, and AHE using the SLEUTH urban growth model and spatial growth assumptions. Two cases representing combinations of RCP and SSP were simulated in WRF: RCP2.6-SSP1 and RCP8.5-SSP3. Each case corresponds to best and worst-case scenarios of implementing adaptation and mitigation strategies, respectively. It was found that 2-m temperature of Jakarta will increase by 0.62°C (RCP2.6) and 1.44°C (RCP8.5) solely from background climate change; almost on the same magnitude as the background temperature increase of RCP2.6 (0.5°C) and RCP8.5 (1.2°C). Compared with previous studies, the result indicates that the effect of climate change on UHI in tropical cities may be lesser than

Assessing dissolved inorganic nitrogen flux in the Yangtze River, China: Sources and scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Hao; Chen, Zhongyuan; Finlayson, Brian; Webber, Michael; Wu, Xiaodan; Li, Maotian; Chen, Jing; Wei, Taoyuan; Barnett, Jon; Wang, Mark

2013-07-01

This study gives a thorough assessment of the occurrences of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) in the Yangtze River in the past half century. The results have shown that nitrogen fertilizer, a major DIN source, has been replaced by domestic sewage in the last decade, which has dramatically driven up DIN loads in the Yangtze. DIN concentrations showed a rapid increase from < 0.5 mg L- 1 in the 1960s to nearly 1.5 mg L- 1 at the end of the 1990s. Since then DIN has remained steady at ca. 1.6-1.8 mg L- 1. A significant relationship between the historical DIN record at the downstream gauging station (Datong) and nitrogen (N) sources in the Yangtze River basin is established using principal components analysis. This allows us to apportion DIN loads for the year 2007 (the most recent year of measured DIN data available) to various N sources, listed here in order of weight: sewage (0.391 million tons); atmosphere (0.358 million tons); manure (0.318 million tons), N-fertilizer (0.271 million tons). Therefore, we estimated that a DIN load of 1.339 × 106 t was delivered to the lower Yangtze and its estuarine water in that year. We established scenarios to predict DIN concentrations in the lower Yangtze at 10 year intervals to 2050. For a dry year (20,000 m3 s- 1) DIN concentrations would range from 2.2-3.0 mg L- 1 for 2020-2050. This far exceeds the 2.0 mg L- 1 defined on the Chinese National Scale as the worst class for potable source water. The scenario results suggest that upgrading the sewage treatment systems throughout the basin will be an effective way to help reduce DIN concentrations to less than 2.0 mg L- 1 in the lower Yangtze. This would save the Shanghai megacity from the increasing threat of heavily polluted water sources, where > 23 million people are at present dependent on the Yangtze estuary for 70% of their freshwater intake.

Synchronization scenarios in the Winfree model of coupled oscillators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallego, Rafael; Montbrió, Ernest; Pazó, Diego

2017-10-01

Fifty years ago Arthur Winfree proposed a deeply influential mean-field model for the collective synchronization of large populations of phase oscillators. Here we provide a detailed analysis of the model for some special, analytically tractable cases. Adopting the thermodynamic limit, we derive an ordinary differential equation that exactly describes the temporal evolution of the macroscopic variables in the Ott-Antonsen invariant manifold. The low-dimensional model is then thoroughly investigated for a variety of pulse types and sinusoidal phase response curves (PRCs). Two structurally different synchronization scenarios are found, which are linked via the mutation of a Bogdanov-Takens point. From our results, we infer a general rule of thumb relating pulse shape and PRC offset with each scenario. Finally, we compare the exact synchronization threshold with the prediction of the averaging approximation given by the Kuramoto-Sakaguchi model. At the leading order, the discrepancy appears to behave as an odd function of the PRC offset.

40 CFR 68.28 - Alternative release scenario analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 15 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Alternative release scenario analysis... scenario analysis. (a) The number of scenarios. The owner or operator shall identify and analyze at least... release scenario under § 68.25; and (ii) That will reach an endpoint offsite, unless no such scenario...

KSC-98pc969

NASA Image and Video Library

1998-08-19

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. -- In Firing Room 1 at KSC, Shuttle launch team members put the Shuttle system through an integrated simulation. The control room is set up with software used to simulate flight and ground systems in the launch configuration. A Simulation Team, comprisING KSC engineers, introduce 12 or more major problems to prepare the launch team for worst-case scenarios. Such tests and simulations keep the Shuttle launch team sharp and ready for liftoff. The next liftoff is targeted for Oct. 29.

KSC-98pc971

NASA Image and Video Library

1998-08-20

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. -- In Firing Room 1 at KSC, Shuttle launch team members put the Shuttle system through an integrated simulation. The control room is set up with software used to simulate flight and ground systems in the launch configuration. A Simulation Team, comprising KSC engineers, introduce 12 or more major problems to prepare the launch team for worst-case scenarios. Such tests and simulations keep the Shuttle launch team sharp and ready for liftoff. The next liftoff is targeted for Oct. 29

Liquid-Crystal Display (LCD) Screen Thermal Testing to Simulate Solar Gain

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-12-01

Display (LCD) Screen Thermal Testing to Simulate Solar Gain 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6 . AUTHOR(S) Steven...Sunlight, Monitor Screen Covered 9 2.6 Test 6 – Bench Test with a 250 W Heat Lamp and Hot Mirror Glass 9 2.7 Test 7 – Bench Test with a 250 W Heat...that was used. The use of a black background with white text was important in creating the worst-case scenario for the absorption of solar radiation

Evaluating predictors of lead exposure for activities disturbing materials painted with or containing lead using historic published data from U.S. workplaces.

PubMed

Locke, Sarah J; Deziel, Nicole C; Koh, Dong-Hee; Graubard, Barry I; Purdue, Mark P; Friesen, Melissa C

2017-02-01

We evaluated predictors of differences in published occupational lead concentrations for activities disturbing material painted with or containing lead in U.S. workplaces to aid historical exposure reconstruction. For the aforementioned tasks, 221 air and 113 blood lead summary results (1960-2010) were extracted from a previously developed database. Differences in the natural log-transformed geometric mean (GM) for year, industry, job, and other ancillary variables were evaluated in meta-regression models that weighted each summary result by its inverse variance and sample size. Air and blood lead GMs declined 5%/year and 6%/year, respectively, in most industries. Exposure contrast in the GMs across the nine jobs and five industries was higher based on air versus blood concentrations. For welding activities, blood lead GMs were 1.7 times higher in worst-case versus non-worst case scenarios. Job, industry, and time-specific exposure differences were identified; other determinants were too sparse or collinear to characterize. Am. J. Ind. Med. 60:189-197, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A CMOS matrix for extracting MOSFET parameters before and after irradiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blaes, B. R.; Buehler, M. G.; Lin, Y.-S.; Hicks, K. A.

1988-01-01

An addressable matrix of 16 n- and 16 p-MOSFETs was designed to extract the dc MOSFET parameters for all dc gate bias conditions before and after irradiation. The matrix contains four sets of MOSFETs, each with four different geometries that can be biased independently. Thus the worst-case bias scenarios can be determined. The MOSFET matrix was fabricated at a silicon foundry using a radiation-soft CMOS p-well LOCOS process. Co-60 irradiation results for the n-MOSFETs showed a threshold-voltage shift of -3 mV/krad(Si), whereas the p-MOSFETs showed a shift of 21 mV/krad(Si). The worst-case threshold-voltage shift occurred for the n-MOSFETs, with a gate bias of 5 V during the anneal. For the p-MOSFETs, biasing did not affect the shift in the threshold voltage. A parasitic MOSFET dominated the leakage of the n-MOSFET biased with 5 V on the gate during irradiation. Co-60 test results for other parameters are also presented.

Mad cows and computer models: the U.S. response to BSE.

PubMed

Ackerman, Frank; Johnecheck, Wendy A

2008-01-01

The proportion of slaughtered cattle tested for BSE is much smaller in the U.S. than in Europe and Japan, leaving the U.S. heavily dependent on statistical models to estimate both the current prevalence and the spread of BSE. We examine the models relied on by USDA, finding that the prevalence model provides only a rough estimate, due to limited data availability. Reassuring forecasts from the model of the spread of BSE depend on the arbitrary constraint that worst-case values are assumed by only one of 17 key parameters at a time. In three of the six published scenarios with multiple worst-case parameter values, there is at least a 25% probability that BSE will spread rapidly. In public policy terms, reliance on potentially flawed models can be seen as a gamble that no serious BSE outbreak will occur. Statistical modeling at this level of abstraction, with its myriad, compound uncertainties, is no substitute for precautionary policies to protect public health against the threat of epidemics such as BSE.

A radiation briefer's guide to the PIKE Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Steadman, Jr, C R

1990-03-01

Gamma-radiation-exposure estimates to populations living immediately downwind from the Nevada Test Site have been required for many years by the US Department of Energy (DOE) before each containment-designed nuclear detonation. A highly unlikely worst-case'' scenario is utilized which assumes that there will be an accidental massive venting of radioactive debris into the atmosphere shortly after detonation. The Weather Service Nuclear Support Office (WSNSO) has supplied DOE with such estimates for the last 25 years using the WSNSO Fallout Scaling Technique (FOST), which employs a worst-case analog event that actually occurred in the past. The PIKE Model'' is the application ofmore » the FOST using the PIKE nuclear event as the analog. This report, which is primarily intended for WSNSO meteorologists who derive radiation estimates, gives a brief history of the model,'' presents the mathematical, radiological, and meteorological concepts upon which it is based, states its limitations, explains it apparent advantages over more sophisticated models, and details how it is used operationally. 10 refs., 31 figs., 7 tabs.« less

Two alternative solar energy scenarios for Western Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakicenovic, N.

1982-11-01

Two limiting scenarios that lead to a sustainable energy system in Western Europe toward the end of the next century are described. The scenarios consider exclusively solar energy futures: one based on centralized solar technologies (hard scenario) and the other on decentralized user-oriented technologies (soft scenario). While both scenarios eliminate Western Europe's dependence on domestic and foreign fossil energy sources, the hard solar scenario requires substantial imports of solar produced hydrogen. Fundamental but different changes of the whole energy system, economic structure and lifestyles are necessary in order to achieve sustainable solar energy futures in the scenarios.

Prospects for steady-state scenarios on JET

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Litaudon, X.; Bizarro, J. P. S.; Challis, C. D.; Crisanti, F.; DeVries, P. C.; Lomas, P.; Rimini, F. G.; Tala, T. J. J.; Akers, R.; Andrew, Y.; Arnoux, G.; Artaud, J. F.; Baranov, Yu F.; Beurskens, M.; Brix, M.; Cesario, R.; DeLa Luna, E.; Fundamenski, W.; Giroud, C.; Hawkes, N. C.; Huber, A.; Joffrin, E.; Pitts, R. A.; Rachlew, E.; Reyes-Cortes, S. D. A.; Sharapov, S. E.; Zastrow, K. D.; Zimmermann, O.; JET EFDA contributors, the

2007-09-01

In the 2006 experimental campaign, progress has been made on JET to operate non-inductive scenarios at higher applied powers (31 MW) and density (nl ~ 4 × 1019 m-3), with ITER-relevant safety factor (q95 ~ 5) and plasma shaping, taking advantage of the new divertor capabilities. The extrapolation of the performance using transport modelling benchmarked on the experimental database indicates that the foreseen power upgrade (~45 MW) will allow the development of non-inductive scenarios where the bootstrap current is maximized together with the fusion yield and not, as in present-day experiments, at its expense. The tools for the long-term JET programme are the new ITER-like ICRH antenna (~15 MW), an upgrade of the NB power (35 MW/20 s or 17.5 MW/40 s), a new ITER-like first wall, a new pellet injector for edge localized mode control together with improved diagnostic and control capability. Operation with the new wall will set new constraints on non-inductive scenarios that are already addressed experimentally and in the modelling. The fusion performance and driven current that could be reached at high density and power have been estimated using either 0D or 1-1/2D validated transport models. In the high power case (45 MW), the calculations indicate the potential for the operational space of the non-inductive regime to be extended in terms of current (~2.5 MA) and density (nl > 5 × 1019 m-3), with high βN (βN > 3.0) and a fraction of the bootstrap current within 60-70% at high toroidal field (~3.5 T).

Default values for assessment of potential dermal exposure of the hands to industrial chemicals in the scope of regulatory risk assessments.

PubMed

Marquart, Hans; Warren, Nicholas D; Laitinen, Juha; van Hemmen, Joop J

2006-07-01

Dermal exposure needs to be addressed in regulatory risk assessment of chemicals. The models used so far are based on very limited data. The EU project RISKOFDERM has gathered a large number of new measurements on dermal exposure to industrial chemicals in various work situations, together with information on possible determinants of exposure. These data and information, together with some non-RISKOFDERM data were used to derive default values for potential dermal exposure of the hands for so-called 'TGD exposure scenarios'. TGD exposure scenarios have similar values for some very important determinant(s) of dermal exposure, such as amount of substance used. They form narrower bands within the so-called 'RISKOFDERM scenarios', which cluster exposure situations according to the same purpose of use of the products. The RISKOFDERM scenarios in turn are narrower bands within the so-called Dermal Exposure Operation units (DEO units) that were defined in the RISKOFDERM project to cluster situations with similar exposure processes and exposure routes. Default values for both reasonable worst case situations and typical situations were derived, both for single datasets and, where possible, for combined datasets that fit the same TGD exposure scenario. The following reasonable worst case potential hand exposures were derived from combined datasets: (i) loading and filling of large containers (or mixers) with large amounts (many litres) of liquids: 11,500 mg per scenario (14 mg cm(-2) per scenario with surface of the hands assumed to be 820 cm(2)); (ii) careful mixing of small quantities (tens of grams in <1l): 4.1 mg per scenario (0.005 mg cm(-2) per scenario); (iii) spreading of (viscous) liquids with a comb on a large surface area: 130 mg per scenario (0.16 mg cm(-2) per scenario); (iv) brushing and rolling of (relatively viscous) liquid products on surfaces: 6500 mg per scenario (8 mg cm(-2) per scenario) and (v) spraying large amounts of liquids (paints, cleaning

Multiple methods for multiple futures: Integrating qualitative scenario planning and quantitative simulation modeling for natural resource decision making

USGS Publications Warehouse

Symstad, Amy J.; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Miller, Brian W.; Rowland, Erika; Schuurman, Gregor W.

2017-01-01

Scenario planning helps managers incorporate climate change into their natural resource decision making through a structured “what-if” process of identifying key uncertainties and potential impacts and responses. Although qualitative scenarios, in which ecosystem responses to climate change are derived via expert opinion, often suffice for managers to begin addressing climate change in their planning, this approach may face limits in resolving the responses of complex systems to altered climate conditions. In addition, this approach may fall short of the scientific credibility managers often require to take actions that differ from current practice. Quantitative simulation modeling of ecosystem response to climate conditions and management actions can provide this credibility, but its utility is limited unless the modeling addresses the most impactful and management-relevant uncertainties and incorporates realistic management actions. We use a case study to compare and contrast management implications derived from qualitative scenario narratives and from scenarios supported by quantitative simulations. We then describe an analytical framework that refines the case study’s integrated approach in order to improve applicability of results to management decisions. The case study illustrates the value of an integrated approach for identifying counterintuitive system dynamics, refining understanding of complex relationships, clarifying the magnitude and timing of changes, identifying and checking the validity of assumptions about resource responses to climate, and refining management directions. Our proposed analytical framework retains qualitative scenario planning as a core element because its participatory approach builds understanding for both managers and scientists, lays the groundwork to focus quantitative simulations on key system dynamics, and clarifies the challenges that subsequent decision making must address.

Hamilton-Jacobi formalism to warm inflationary scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayar, K.; Mohammadi, A.; Akhtari, L.; Saaidi, Kh.

2017-01-01

The Hamilton-Jacobi formalism as a powerful method is being utilized to reconsider the warm inflationary scenario, where the scalar field as the main component driving inflation interacts with other fields. Separating the context into strong and weak dissipative regimes, the goal is followed for two popular functions of Γ . Applying slow-rolling approximation, the required perturbation parameters are extracted and, by comparing to the latest Planck data, the free parameters are restricted. The possibility of producing an acceptable inflation is studied where the result shows that for all cases the model could successfully suggest the amplitude of scalar perturbation, scalar spectral index, its running, and the tensor-to-scalar ratio.

Medical Scenarios Relevant to Spaceflight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bacal, Kira; Hurs, Victor; Doerr, Harold

2004-01-01

The Medical Operational Support Team (MOST) was tasked by the JSC Space Medicine and Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) to incorporate medical simulation into 1) medical training for astronaut-crew medical officers (CMO) and medical flight control teams and 2) evaluations of procedures and resources required for medical care aboard the International Space Station (ISS). Development of evidence-based medical scenarios that mimic the physiology observed during spaceflight will be needed for the MOST to complete these two tasks. The MOST used a human patient simulator, the ISS-like resources in the Medical Simulation Laboratory (MSL), and evidence from space operations, military operations and medical literature to develop space relevant medical scenarios. These scenarios include conditions concerning airway management, Advanced Cardiac Life Support (ACLS) and mitigating anaphylactic symptoms. The MOST has used these space relevant medical scenarios to develop a preliminary space medical training regimen for NASA flight surgeons, Biomedical Flight Controllers (Biomedical Engineers; BME) and CMO-analogs. This regimen is conducted by the MOST in the MSL. The MOST has the capability to develop evidence-based space-relevant medical scenarios that can help SLSD I) demonstrate the proficiency of medical flight control teams to mitigate space-relevant medical events and 2) validate nextgeneration medical equipment and procedures for space medicine applications.

Crisis management with applicability on fire fighting plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panaitescu, M.; Panaitescu, F. V.; Voicu, I.; Dumitrescu, L. G.

2017-08-01

The paper presents a case study for a crisis management analysis which address to fire fighting plants. The procedures include the steps of FTA (Failure tree analysis). The purpose of the present paper is to describe this crisis management plan with tools of FTA. The crisis management procedures have applicability on anticipated and emergency situations and help to describe and planning a worst-case scenario plan. For this issue must calculate the probabilities in different situations for fire fighting plants. In the conclusions of paper is analised the block diagram with components of fire fighting plant and are presented the solutions for each possible risk situations.

Futures Scenario in Science Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lloyd, David; Vanderhout, Annastasia; Lloyd, Lisa; Atkins, David

2010-01-01

In this article we describe our experiences in developing futures scenarios in two science contexts, space science and atmospheric science/climate change. Futures scenario writing can develop scientific literacy by connecting science learning to students' lifeworlds--past, present and future. They also provide a synthesising mechanism for…

Minimizing makespan in a two-stage flow shop with parallel batch-processing machines and re-entrant jobs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, J. D.; Liu, J. J.; Chen, Q. X.; Mao, N.

2017-06-01

Against a background of heat-treatment operations in mould manufacturing, a two-stage flow-shop scheduling problem is described for minimizing makespan with parallel batch-processing machines and re-entrant jobs. The weights and release dates of jobs are non-identical, but job processing times are equal. A mixed-integer linear programming model is developed and tested with small-scale scenarios. Given that the problem is NP hard, three heuristic construction methods with polynomial complexity are proposed. The worst case of the new constructive heuristic is analysed in detail. A method for computing lower bounds is proposed to test heuristic performance. Heuristic efficiency is tested with sets of scenarios. Compared with the two improved heuristics, the performance of the new constructive heuristic is superior.

Health care professional workstation: software system construction using DSSA scenario-based engineering process.

PubMed

Hufnagel, S; Harbison, K; Silva, J; Mettala, E

1994-01-01

This paper describes a new method for the evolutionary determination of user requirements and system specifications called scenario-based engineering process (SEP). Health care professional workstations are critical components of large scale health care system architectures. We suggest that domain-specific software architectures (DSSAs) be used to specify standard interfaces and protocols for reusable software components throughout those architectures, including workstations. We encourage the use of engineering principles and abstraction mechanisms. Engineering principles are flexible guidelines, adaptable to particular situations. Abstraction mechanisms are simplifications for management of complexity. We recommend object-oriented design principles, graphical structural specifications, and formal components' behavioral specifications. We give an ambulatory care scenario and associated models to demonstrate SEP. The scenario uses health care terminology and gives patients' and health care providers' system views. Our goal is to have a threefold benefit. (i) Scenario view abstractions provide consistent interdisciplinary communications. (ii) Hierarchical object-oriented structures provide useful abstractions for reuse, understandability, and long term evolution. (iii) SEP and health care DSSA integration into computer aided software engineering (CASE) environments. These environments should support rapid construction and certification of individualized systems, from reuse libraries.

Enhancing the performance of a tensioned metastable fluid detector based active interrogation system for the detection of SNM in <1 m3 containers using a D-D neutron interrogation source in moderated/reflected geometries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grimes, T. F.; Hagen, A. R.; Archambault, B. C.; Taleyarkhan, R. P.

2018-03-01

configurations. Worst case scenarios were created by filling the box with hydrogenous material and placing the HEU as far away as possible from the neutron source. The performance of the system in the worst-case scenarios were greatly improved by exchanging the location of the accelerator and the opposite TMFD panel half way through interrogation. Using this operation, scenarios with positions of the concealed SNM that were once the most challenging to successfully detect became readily detectable.

Useful global-change scenarios: current issues and challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parson, E. A.