Quality, Quantity, And Surprise! Trade-Offs In X-Raser ASAT Attrition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Callaham, Michael B.; Scibilia, Frank M.

1984-08-01

In order to characterize the effects of technological superiority, numerical superiority, and pre-emption on space battle outcomes, we have constructed a battle simulation in which "Red" and "Blue" ASATs, each armed with a specified number of x-ray lasers of specified range, move along specified orbits and fire on one another according to a pair of battle management algorithms. The simulated battle proceeds until apparent steady-state force levels are reached. Battle outcomes are characterized by terminal force ratio and by terminal force-exchange ratio as effective weapon range, multiplicity (x-rasers per ASAT), and pre-emptive role are varied parametrically. A major conclusion is that pre-emptive advantage increases with increasing x-raser range and multiplicity (x-rasers per ASAT) and with increasing force size. That is, the "use 'em or lose 'em" dilemma will become more stark as such weapons are refined and proliferated.