A 6-year longitudinal study of predictors for suicide attempts in major depressive disorder.

PubMed

Eikelenboom, Merijn; Beekman, Aartjan T F; Penninx, Brenda W J H; Smit, Johannes H

2018-06-13

Major depressive disorder (MDD), represent a major source of risk for suicidality. However, knowledge about risk factors for future suicide attempts (SAs) within MDD is limited. The present longitudinal study examined a wide range of putative non-clinical risk factors (demographic, social, lifestyle, personality) and clinical risk factors (depressive and suicidal indicators) for future SAs among persons with MDD. Furthermore, we examined the relationship between a number of significant predictors and the incidence of a future SA. Data are from 1713 persons (18-65 years) with a lifetime MDD at the baseline measurement of the Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety who were subsequently followed up 2, 4 and 6 years. SAs were assessed in the face-to-face measurements. Cox proportional hazard regression analyses were used to examine a wide range of possible non-clinical and clinical predictors for subsequent SAs during 6-year follow-up. Over a period of 6 years, 3.4% of the respondents attempted suicide. Younger age, lower education, unemployment, insomnia, antidepressant use, a previous SA and current suicidal thoughts independently predicted a future SA. The number of significant risk factors (ranging from 0 to 7) linearly predicted the incidence of future SAs: in those with 0 predictors the SA incidence was 0%, which increased to 32% incidence in those with 6+ predictors. Of the non-clinical factors, particularly socio-economic factors predicted a SA independently. Furthermore, preexisting suicidal ideation and insomnia appear to be important clinical risk factors for subsequent SA that are open to preventative intervention.

Method for Assessing Impacts of Global Sea Level Rise on Navigation Gate Operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obrien, P. S.; White, K. D.; Friedman, D.

2015-12-01

Coastal navigation infrastructure may be highly vulnerable to changing climate, including increasing sea levels and altered frequency and intensity of coastal storms. Future gate operations impacted by global sea level rise will pose unique challenges, especially for structures 50 years and older. Our approach is to estimate future changes in gate operational frequency based on a bootstrapping method to forecast future water levels. A case study will be presented to determine future changes in frequency of operations over the next 100 years. A statistical model in the R programming language was developed to apply future sea level rise projections using the three sea level rise scenarios prescribed by USACE Engineer Regulation ER 1100-2-8162. Information derived from the case study will help forecast changes in operational costs caused by increased gate operations and inform timing of decisions on adaptation measures.

Past and Future Episodic Thinking in Middle Childhood

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Qi; Capous, Diana; Koh, Jessie Bee Kim; Hou, Yubo

2014-01-01

The abilities of past and future episodic thinking develop hand in hand across the preschool years and are intimately connected in adults. Little is known, however, about the development of episodic thinking in middle childhood and how it is influenced by sociocultural factors. In the present study, one hundred sixty-seven 7- to 10-year-old…

Response of Groundwater Recharge to Potential Future Climate Change in the Grand River Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jyrkama, M. I.; Sykes, J. F.

2004-05-01

The Grand River watershed is situated in south-western Ontario, draining an area of nearly 7000 square kilometres into Lake Erie. Approximately eighty percent of the population in the watershed derive their drinking water from groundwater sources. Quantifying the recharge input to the groundwater system and the impact of climate variability due to climate change is, therefore, essential for ensuring the quantity and sustainability of the watershed's drinking water resources in the future. The primary goal of this study is to investigate the impact of potential future climate changes on groundwater recharge in the Grand River watershed. The physically based hydrologic model HELP3 is used in conjunction with GIS to simulate the past conditions and future changes in evapotranspiration, potential surface runoff, and groundwater recharge rates as a result of projected changes in the regions climate. The climate change projections are based on the general predictions reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001. Forty years of daily historical weather data are used as the reference condition. The impact of climate change on the hydrologic cycle over a forty year study period is modelled by perturbing the HELP3 model input parameters using predicted future changes in precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation. The changes in land use and vegetation cover over time were not considered in the study. The results of the study indicate that the overall simulated rate of groundwater recharge is predicted to increase in the watershed as a result of the projected future climate change. Warmer winter temperatures will reduce the extent and duration of ground frost and shift the springmelt from spring toward winter months, allowing more water to infiltrate into the ground. This results in decreased surface runoff, higher infiltration, and subsequently increased groundwater recharge. The predicted higher intensity and frequency of future precipitation will not only contribute significantly to increased surface runoff, but also results in higher evapotranspiration and groundwater recharge rates due to increased amounts of available water. Changes in the incoming solar radiation have a minimal impact on the simulated hydrologic processes. The overall simulated average annual recharge in the watershed is predicted to increase by approximately 100 mm/year over the next forty years from 189 mm/year to 289 mm/year.

A Sensitivity Study on the Effectiveness of Active Debris Removal in LEO

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liou, J. C.; Johnson, Nicholas L.

2007-01-01

The near-Earth orbital debris population will continue to increase in the future due to ongoing space activities, on-orbit explosions, and accidental collisions among resident space objects. Commonly adopted mitigation measures, such as limiting postmission orbital lifetimes of satellites to less than 25 years, will slow down the population growth, but may be insufficient to stabilize the environment. The nature of the growth, in the low Earth orbit (LEO) region, is further demonstrated by a recent study where no future space launches were conducted in the environment projection simulations. The results indicate that, even with no new launches, the LEO debris population would remain relatively constant for only the next 50 years. Beyond that, the debris population would begin to increase noticeably, due to the production of collisional debris. Therefore, to better limit the growth of future debris population to protect the environment, remediation option, i.e., removing existing large and massive objects from orbit, needs to be considered. This paper does not intend to address the technical or economical issues for active debris removal. Rather, the objective is to provide a sensitivity study to quantify the effectiveness of various remediation options. A removal criterion based upon mass and collision probability is developed to rank objects at the beginning of each projection year. This study includes simulations with removal rates ranging from 2 to 20 objects per year, starting in the year 2020. The outcome of each simulation is analyzed, and compared with others. The summary of the study serves as a general guideline for future debris removal consideration.

Future design of perpetual pavements for New Mexico.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-12-29

This study provides guidance for future designs of perpetual pavements in New Mexico. The perpetual pavement in this study refers to only hot mix asphalt (HMA) pavement sections designed for a useful life of 50 years or more without having major dist...

Future self-continuity is associated with improved health and increases exercise behavior.

PubMed

Rutchick, Abraham M; Slepian, Michael L; Reyes, Monica O; Pleskus, Lindsay N; Hershfield, Hal E

2018-03-01

To the extent that people feel more continuity between their present and future selves, they are more likely to make decisions with the future self in mind. The current studies examined future self-continuity in the context of health. In Study 1, people reported the extent to which they felt similar and connected to their future self; people with more present-future continuity reported having better subjective health across a variety of measures. In Study 2, people were randomly assigned to write a letter to themselves either three months or 20 years into the future; people for whom continuity with the distant future self was enhanced exercised more in the days following the writing task. These findings suggest that future self-continuity promotes adaptive long-term health behavior, suggesting the promise of interventions enhancing future self-continuity. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Foresight beyond the very next event: four-year-olds can link past and deferred future episodes

PubMed Central

Redshaw, Jonathan; Suddendorf, Thomas

2013-01-01

Previous experiments have demonstrated that by 4 years of age children can use information from a past episode to solve a problem for the very next future episode. However, it remained unclear whether 4-year-olds can similarly use such information to solve a problem for a more removed future episode that is not of immediate concern. In the current study we introduced 4-year-olds to problems in one room before taking them to another room and distracting them for 15 min. The children were then offered a choice of items to place into a bucket that was to be taken back to the first room when a 5-min sand-timer had completed a cycle. Across two conceptually distinct domains, the children placed the item that could solve the deferred future problem above chance level. This result demonstrates that by 48 months many children can recall a problem from the past and act in the present to solve that problem for a deferred future episode. We discuss implications for theories about the nature of episodic foresight. PMID:23847575

Psychological Predictors of Mortality: Evidence from a 41-Year Prospective Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Graves, Pirkko L.; And Others

The Precursors Study, initiated in 1946, has focused on searching for links between psychological patterns and future disease and death. Gathering a broad spectrum of psychobiological characteristics from a large group of medical students, this study has continued year after year. This study examined the role of psychological factors on mortality,…

The Understanding of Time by Deaf Pupils.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaiser-Grodecka, Irmina; Cieszynska, Jagoda

The natural sign language used by deaf children in Poland makes no distinction between present, future, and past tenses. Deaf pupils do not understand the notions of temporal sequence and duration of time intervals, and so are prevented from thinking of and planning for the future. The study with 15 deaf 12-year-old pupils and 15 deaf 14-year-old…

Fifteen years of quantitative trait loci studies in fish: challenges and future directions.

PubMed

Ashton, David T; Ritchie, Peter A; Wellenreuther, Maren

2017-03-01

Understanding the genetic basis of phenotypic variation is a major challenge in biology. Here, we systematically evaluate 146 quantitative trait loci (QTL) studies on teleost fish over the last 15 years to investigate (i) temporal trends and (ii) factors affecting QTL detection and fine-mapping. The number of fish QTL studies per year increased over the review period and identified a cumulative number of 3632 putative QTLs. Most studies used linkage-based mapping approaches and were conducted on nonmodel species with limited genomic resources. A gradual and moderate increase in the size of the mapping population and a sharp increase in marker density from 2011 onwards were observed; however, the number of QTLs and variance explained by QTLs changed only minimally over the review period. Based on these findings, we discuss the causative factors and outline how larger sample sizes, phenomics, comparative genomics, epigenetics and software development could improve both the quantity and quality of QTLs in future genotype-phenotype studies. Given that the technical limitations on DNA sequencing have mostly been overcome in recent years, a renewed focus on these and other study design factors will likely lead to significant improvements in QTL studies in the future. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Projecting future grassland performance in the Greater Platte River Basin to assess sustainability for potential biofuel feedstock areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Y.; Wylie, B. K.; Phuyal, K.

2012-12-01

In previous studies, we used vegetation condition information from archival records of satellite data (i.e., 10-year time series of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data), site geophysical and biophysical features (e.g., elevation, slope and aspect, and soils), and weather and climate drivers to build ecosystem performance (EP) models to dynamically monitor EP (DMEP) in the Greater Platte River Basin (GPRB). Ecosystem performance is a surrogate approach for measuring ecosystem productivity. We estimated ecosystem site potentials (i.e., long-term ecosystem productivities), weather-based expected EP (EEP), and rangeland conditions based on these EP models. Validation of the EP results using ground observations (e.g., percentage of bare soil, LANDFIRE maps, stocking rate, and crop yield data) demonstrated the reliability of these EP models. We used this DMEP method to identify grasslands that are potentially suitable for cellulosic biofuel feedstock (e.g., switchgrass) development in the GPRB. The objectives of this study are to (1) project the future grassland EP; (2) assess the changes and trends of the future EP; and (3) examine the future sustainability of the identified biofuel feedstock areas in the GPRB. We used the EP models and future climate projections to estimate future (e.g., 2050 and 2099) climate-based projections of grassland performance in the GPRB. The future climate data were derived from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model 3.0 (CCSM3) "SRES A1B" (a "middle" emissions path) obtained from the "Bias Corrected and Downscaled WCRP CMIP3 Climate Projections" archive (http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip3_projections). Results show that, under climate scenario A1B, the potential biofuel feedstock areas in the more mesic Eastern part of the GPRB will remain productive in the future (the spatially averaged EPs for these areas are 3335 kg ha-1 year-1, 3355 kg ha-1 year-1, and 3341 kg ha-1 year-1 for the site potential, the 2050 EEP, and the 2099 EEP, respectively). Therefore, the identified potential biofuel feedstock areas will continue to be sustainable for future biofuel development. On the other hand, the identified non-biofuel grasslands in the drier Western part of the GPRB would be expected to stay unproductive, with a slight decline in the EP trend in the future (spatially averaged EPs are 1983 kg ha-1 year-1, 1977 kg ha-1 year-1, and 1964 kg ha-1 year-1 for the site potential, the 2050 EEP, and the 2099 EEP, respectively). Thus, these areas will continue to be unsuitable for biofuel feedstock development in the future. The resulting future grassland EEP maps can be used as a reference by land managers to assess the future sustainability and feasibility of the potential biofuel feedstock areas.

Episodic Future Thinking: Mechanisms and Functions.

PubMed

Schacter, Daniel L; Benoit, Roland G; Szpunar, Karl K

2017-10-01

Episodic future thinking refers to the capacity to imagine or simulate experiences that might occur in one's personal future. Cognitive, neuropsychological, and neuroimaging research concerning episodic future thinking has accelerated during recent years. This article discusses research that has delineated cognitive and neural mechanisms that support episodic future thinking as well as the functions that episodic future thinking serves. Studies focused on mechanisms have identified a core brain network that underlies episodic future thinking and have begun to tease apart the relative contributions of particular regions in this network, and the specific cognitive processes that they support. Studies concerned with functions have identified several domains in which episodic future thinking produces performance benefits, including decision making, emotion regulation, prospective memory, and spatial navigation.

A retrospective study on anthropometrical, physical fitness, and motor coordination characteristics that influence dropout, contract status, and first-team playing time in high-level soccer players aged eight to eighteen years.

PubMed

Deprez, Dieter N; Fransen, Job; Lenoir, Matthieu; Philippaerts, Renaat M; Vaeyens, Roel

2015-06-01

The goal of this article was twofold, and a 2-study approach was conducted. The first study aimed to expose the anthropometrical, physical performance, and motor coordination characteristics that influence dropout from a high-level soccer training program in players aged 8-16 years. The mixed-longitudinal sample included 388 Belgian youth soccer players who were assigned to either a "club group" or a "dropout group." In the second study, cross-sectional data of anthropometry, physical performance, and motor coordination were retrospectively explored to investigate which characteristics influence future contract status (contract vs. no contract group) and first-team playing time for 72 high-level youth soccer players (mean age = 16.2 years). Generally, club players outperformed their dropout peers for motor coordination, soccer-specific aerobic endurance, and speed. Anthropometry and estimated maturity status did not discriminate between club and dropout players. Contract players jumped further (p = 0.011) and had faster times for a 5-m sprint (p = 0.041) than no contract players. The following prediction equation explains 16.7% of the variance in future playing minutes in adolescent youth male soccer players: -2,869.3 + 14.6 × standing broad jump. Practitioners should include the evaluation of motor coordination, aerobic endurance, and speed performances to distinguish high-level soccer players further succeeding a talent development program and future dropout players, between 8 and 16 years. From the age of 16 years, measures of explosivity are supportive when selecting players into a future professional soccer career.

Egocentrism and Development of Students' Identity (On the Example of Studying of Future Teachers)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gromova, Chulpan R.; Alimbekov, Akmatali

2015-01-01

Relevance of the studied problem is that the nature of interrelation between an index of an egocentrism and characteristics of identity isn't studied. Secondly, special trainings of decentration for students--future teachers are not developed. The article is directed to study the structure of the first-third year students' identity, connection…

Is Clinical Assessment of Addiction Severity of Individuals with Substance Use Disorder, Using the Addiction Severity Index, A Predictor of Future Inpatient Mental Health Hospitalization? A Nine-Year Registry Study.

PubMed

Padyab, Mojgan; Armelius, Bengt-Åke; Armelius, Kerstin; Nyström, Siv; Blom, Björn; Grönlund, Ann-Sofie; Lundgren, Lena

2018-04-23

In Sweden, the Addiction Severity Index (ASI) is the Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare's recommended substance use disorder assessment tool and used routinely for patient intakes. Our study of 213 individuals assessed for substance use disorder with the ASI used nine years of the National Patient Register and examined whether clinical social workers' assessments of addiction severity at baseline were associated with later hospitalizations for mental health disorder (MHD). ASI composite scores and interviewer severity rating were used to measure clients' problems in seven areas (mental health, family and social relationships, employment, alcohol, drug use, health, and legal) at baseline. A stepwise regression method was used to assess the relative importance of ASI composite scores, MHD hospitalization two years prior to baseline, age, and gender for MHD hospitalization seven years post-baseline. Almost two-thirds of the individuals (63%) were hospitalized at least once for MHD in the seven years post-baseline. At the multivariable level, MHD hospitalization prior to baseline was the strongest predictor of future MHD hospitalization, followed by ASI composite scores for drug use, employment, mental health and, last, male gender. A key finding is that higher ASI composite scores for drug use and mental health are predictors of future need for MHD treatment. Future studies will replicate this effort with a national population of individuals with substance use disorder.

Future planning in preschool children.

PubMed

Moffett, Lillie; Moll, Henrike; FitzGibbon, Lily

2018-05-01

The capacity to plan ahead and provide the means for future ends is an important part of human practical reasoning. When this capacity develops in ontogeny is the matter of an ongoing debate. In this study, 4- and 5-year-olds performed a future planning task in which they had to create the means (a picture of a particular object, e.g., a banana) that was necessary to address a future end (of completing a game in which such a picture was missing). Children of both ages drew more targets than children in a control condition in which there was no future end to be pursued. Along with prior findings, the results suggest a major progression in children's future thinking between 3 and 5 years. Our findings expand on prior knowledge by showing that young children cannot only identify the probate means to future ends but determine such ends and create the means to achieve them, thus offering compelling evidence for future planning. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Increased Visceral Adipose Tissue Is an Independent Predictor for Future Development of Atherogenic Dyslipidemia.

PubMed

Hwang, You-Cheol; Fujimoto, Wilfred Y; Hayashi, Tomoshige; Kahn, Steven E; Leonetti, Donna L; Boyko, Edward J

2016-02-01

Atherogenic dyslipidemia is frequently observed in persons with a greater amount of visceral adipose tissue (VAT). However, it is still uncertain whether VAT is independently associated with the future development of atherogenic dyslipidemia. The aim of this study was to determine whether baseline and changes in VAT and subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT) are associated with future development of atherogenic dyslipidemia independent of baseline lipid levels and standard anthropometric indices. Community-based prospective cohort study with 5 years of follow-up. A total of 452 Japanese Americans (240 men, 212 women), aged 34-75 years were assessed at baseline and after 5 years of follow-up. Abdominal fat areas were measured by computed tomography. Atherogenic dyslipidemia was defined as one or more abnormalities in high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, triglycerides, or non-HDL cholesterol levels. Baseline VAT and change in VAT over 5 years were independently associated with log-transformed HDL cholesterol, log-transformed triglyceride, and non-HDL cholesterol after 5 years (standardized β = -0.126, 0.277, and 0.066 for baseline VAT, respectively, and -0.095, 0.223, and 0.090 for change in VAT, respectively). However, baseline and change in SAT were not associated with any future atherogenic lipid level. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, incremental change in VAT (odds ratio [95% confidence interval], 1.73 [1.20-2.48]; P = .003), triglycerides (4.01 [1.72-9.33]; P = .001), HDL cholesterol (0.32 [0.18-0.58]; P < .001), and non-HDL cholesterol (7.58 [4.43-12.95]; P < .001) were significantly associated with the future development of atherogenic dyslipidemia independent of age, sex, diastolic blood pressure, homeostasis model assessment insulin resistance, body mass index (BMI), change in BMI, SAT, and baseline atherogenic lipid levels. Baseline and change in VAT were independent predictors for future development of atherogenic dyslipidemia. However, BMI, waist circumference, and SAT were not associated with future development of atherogenic dyslipidemia.

Planning Schools for the Future. Publication No. BM-1.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weinberger, JoAnn

In a three-year study, Research for Better Schools (RBS) was asked by the National Institute of Education to identify, analyze, and verify definitive social changes forecast for the decades ahead, and to project their implications for schools of the future. RBS reviewed the literature to extract future planning needs relevant to educational…

Self-Esteem and Future Orientation Predict Adolescents' Risk Engagement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jackman, Danielle M.; MacPhee, David

2017-01-01

This study's purpose was to examine the relations among future orientation, self-esteem, and later adolescent risk behaviors, and to compare two mediational models involving self-esteem versus future orientation as mediators. An ethnically diverse sample of 12- to 14-year-olds (N = 862, 54% female, 53% ethnic minority) was assessed longitudinally.…

[Current State of Studies on Job-related Stress among Psychiatric Social Workers and Insights into Future Research].

PubMed

Yada, Hironori; Abe, Hiroshi; Odachi, Ryo; Iwanaga, Yasushi; Yamane, Toshie

2016-01-01

We studied the characteristics of psychiatric social workers (PSWs) and present research on job-related stress among them; we also provide insights into the future of such research. In recent years, studies on job-related stress among PSWs have been gaining interest. In particular, stress associated with the repeated revisions of related laws has increased. Subsequently, it was found that occupational stress in PSWs differs qualitatively and quantitatively depending on educational history, years of experience, and service department. However, no scale captures the specific characteristics of job-related stress among PSWs. Moreover, the development of a mental health care program for PSWs seems difficult. To develop a mental health care program that caters specifically to this group, future research should focus on developing a scale that determines the specific characteristics of job-related stress among PSWs, which should be evaluated on the basis of each PSW's educational history, years of experience, and service department.

Perceived stress among 20-21 year-olds and their future labour market participation - an eight-year follow-up study.

PubMed

Trolle, Nanna; Lund, Thomas; Winding, Trine Nohr; Labriola, Merete

2017-03-31

Labour market participation among young adults is essential for their future socioeconomic status and health. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between perceived stress among 20-21 year-olds and their labour market participation 8 years later as well as investigate any potential gender differences. A cohort of 1640 young adults born in 1983 completed a questionnaire in 2004 in which perceived stress was measured. The cohort was followed in a register of social benefits for 12 months in 2011-2012 and was categorized into active and passive labour market participation. Logistic regression was used to analyse the association between perceived stress and future labour market participation, taking into account effects of potential confounders. The analyses were stratified by gender. The effects of perceived stress on future labour market participation differed significantly among young women and young men (p = 0.029). For young men, higher levels of perceived stress reduced the risk of future passive labour market participation, when adjusting for socioeconomic factors, self-rated health and copings strategies (p = 0.045). For young women, higher levels of perceived stress increased the risk of future passive labour market participation, when adjusting for the same potential confounding factors, although unlike the men, this association was not statistically significant (p = 0.335). The observed gender difference has important implications from a public health point of view. Healthcare professionals might need to differentiate between the genders in terms of health communication, research and when developing preventive strategies.

Prediction of future risk of insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome based on Korean boy's metabolite profiling.

PubMed

Lee, AeJin; Jang, Han Byul; Ra, Moonjin; Choi, Youngshim; Lee, Hye-Ja; Park, Ju Yeon; Kang, Jae Heon; Park, Kyung-Hee; Park, Sang Ick; Song, Jihyun

2015-01-01

Childhood obesity is strongly related to future insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome. Thus, identifying early biomarkers of obesity-related diseases based on metabolic profiling is useful to control future metabolic disorders. We compared metabolic profiles between obese and normal-weight children and investigated specific biomarkers of future insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome. In all, 186 plasma metabolites were analysed at baseline and after 2 years in 109 Korean boys (age 10.5±0.4 years) from the Korean Child Obesity Cohort Study using the AbsoluteIDQ™ p180 Kit. We observed that levels of 41 metabolites at baseline and 40 metabolites at follow-up were significantly altered in obese children (p<0.05). Obese children showed significantly higher levels of branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs) and several acylcarnitines and lower levels of acyl-alkyl phosphatidylcholines. Also, baseline BCAAs were significantly positively correlated with both homeostasis model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and continuous metabolic risk score at the 2-year follow-up. In logistic regression analyses with adjustments for degree of obesity at baseline, baseline BCAA concentration, greater than the median value, was identified as a predictor of future risk of insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome. High BCAA concentration could be "early" biomarkers for predicting future metabolic diseases. Copyright © 2014 Asian Oceanian Association for the Study of Obesity. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prognostic factors for work ability in women with chronic low back pain consulting primary health care: a 2-year prospective longitudinal cohort study.

PubMed

Nordeman, Lena; Gunnarsson, Ronny; Mannerkorpi, Kaisa

2014-05-01

To investigate prognostic factors for future work ability in women with chronic low back pain (CLBP) consulting primary health care. A 2-year prospective longitudinal cohort study of female patients with CLBP within the primary health care was conducted. Patients were assessed at the first assessment and after 2 years. Prognostic factors for work ability (yes/no) were analyzed by multivariate regression. A total of 130 patients were included at first assessment. After 2 years, 123 patients (95%) were followed up. The 6-minute walk test, depression, and earlier work ability predicted work ability at the 2-year follow-up. A nomogram was constructed to assess the probability of future work ability. The 6-minute walk test, work ability, and depression predicted work ability for women with CLBP after 2 years.

Self, memory, and imagining the future in a case of psychogenic amnesia.

PubMed

Rathbone, Clare J; Ellis, Judi A; Baker, Ian; Butler, Chris R

2015-01-01

We report a case of psychogenic amnesia and examine the relationships between autobiographical memory impairment, the self, and ability to imagine the future. Case study JH, a 60-year-old male, experienced a 6-year period of pervasive psychogenic amnesia covering all life events from childhood to the age of 53. JH was tested during his amnesic period and again following hypnotherapy and the recovery of his memories. JH's amnesia corresponded with deficits in self-knowledge and imagining the future. Results are discussed with reference to models of self and memory and processes involving remembering and imagining.

Longevity of the Human Spaceflight Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gott, J. Richard

2007-02-01

The longevity of the human spaceflight program is important to our survival prospects. On May 27, 1993 I proposed a method for estimating future longevity, based on past observed longevity using the Copernican Principle: if your observation point is not special the 95% confidence level prediction of future longevity is between (1/39)th and 39 times the past longevity. The prediction for the future longevity of the human spaceflight program (then 32 years old) was greater than 10 months but less than 1248 years. We have already passed the lower limit. This Copernican formula has been tested a number of times, correctly predicting, among other things, future longevities of Broadway plays and musicals, and the Conservative Government in the United Kingdom. Recently, a study of future longevities of the 313 world leaders in power on May 27, 1993 has been completed. Assuming none still in office serve past age 100, the success rate of the 95% Copernican Formula is currently 94.55% with only one case (out of 313) left to be decided. The human spaceflight program has not been around long and so there is the danger its future will not be long enough to allow us to colonize off the earth. Policy implications are discussed. A smart plan would be to try to establish a self-supporting colony on Mars in the next 45 years. This should not require sending any more tons of material into space in the next 45 years than we have in the last 45 years.

The Development and Coherence of Future-Oriented Behaviors during the Preschool Years

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Atance, Cristina M.; Jackson, Laura K.

2009-01-01

Although previous research has identified a number of interesting aspects of future thinking in adults, little is known about the developmental trajectory and coherence of future-oriented behaviors during early childhood. The primary goal of this study was to explore these issues by administering a battery of tasks assessing different aspects of…

Forecasting of future earthquakes in the northeast region of India considering energy released concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarola, Amit; Sil, Arjun

2018-04-01

This study presents the forecasting of time and magnitude size of the next earthquake in the northeast India, using four probability distribution models (Gamma, Lognormal, Weibull and Log-logistic) considering updated earthquake catalog of magnitude Mw ≥ 6.0 that occurred from year 1737-2015 in the study area. On the basis of past seismicity of the region, two types of conditional probabilities have been estimated using their best fit model and respective model parameters. The first conditional probability is the probability of seismic energy (e × 1020 ergs), which is expected to release in the future earthquake, exceeding a certain level of seismic energy (E × 1020 ergs). And the second conditional probability is the probability of seismic energy (a × 1020 ergs/year), which is expected to release per year, exceeding a certain level of seismic energy per year (A × 1020 ergs/year). The logarithm likelihood functions (ln L) were also estimated for all four probability distribution models. A higher value of ln L suggests a better model and a lower value shows a worse model. The time of the future earthquake is forecasted by dividing the total seismic energy expected to release in the future earthquake with the total seismic energy expected to release per year. The epicentre of recently occurred 4 January 2016 Manipur earthquake (M 6.7), 13 April 2016 Myanmar earthquake (M 6.9) and the 24 August 2016 Myanmar earthquake (M 6.8) are located in zone Z.12, zone Z.16 and zone Z.15, respectively and that are the identified seismic source zones in the study area which show that the proposed techniques and models yield good forecasting accuracy.

Orthodontics as a prospective career choice among undergraduate dental students: A prospective study.

PubMed

Sam, George

2015-01-01

The purposes of this study were to investigate the factors influencing the career choice of dental students and to identify the future life plans of the students at Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University Dental College who had chosen orthodontics as their future specialty. An epidemiological descriptive survey was conducted using a set of questionnaire among the second year to fourth year students at Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University, Al Kharj, Saudi Arabia. Data were categorized by demographic variables and were analyzed with statistical methods using descriptive statistical analysis. The most important factor influencing the decision to pursue specialty in orthodontics was considering that "orthodontics is intellectually challenging" (23%), followed by "previous positive experience" (15%). The decision to become an orthodontist was made by 3.7% of the respondents in the first year of their course, 44.4% in the second year of their study, 11.1% during the third year of their study, 25.9% during the fourth year of their study, while none of them had made their decision during the final year of their dental school studies. Only one student (3.7) said he planned to work in a private college in an academic setting, five students (18.5%) had plans to do private practice, two students indicated that they would work for the Ministry of Health, while most students (40.7%) reported that they were planning to try a combination of all of the above. Six students (22.2%) remained undecided. Majority of the students who had chosen orthodontics as their future specialty of choice at Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University Dental College, Saudi Arabia had taken up this specialty as they felt that orthodontics was intellectually challenging.

Evolution of precipitation extremes in two large ensembles of climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martel, Jean-Luc; Mailhot, Alain; Talbot, Guillaume; Brissette, François; Ludwig, Ralf; Frigon, Anne; Leduc, Martin; Turcotte, Richard

2017-04-01

Recent studies project significant changes in the future distribution of precipitation extremes due to global warming. It is likely that extreme precipitation intensity will increase in a future climate and that extreme events will be more frequent. In this work, annual maxima daily precipitation series from the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) 50-member large ensemble (spatial resolution of 2.8°x2.8°) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) 40-member large ensemble (spatial resolution of 1°x1°) are used to investigate extreme precipitation over the historical (1980-2010) and future (2070-2100) periods. The use of these ensembles results in respectively 1 500 (30 years x 50 members) and 1200 (30 years x 40 members) simulated years over both the historical and future periods. These large datasets allow the computation of empirical daily extreme precipitation quantiles for large return periods. Using the CanESM2 and CESM1 large ensembles, extreme daily precipitation with return periods ranging from 2 to 100 years are computed in historical and future periods to assess the impact of climate change. Results indicate that daily precipitation extremes generally increase in the future over most land grid points and that these increases will also impact the 100-year extreme daily precipitation. Considering that many public infrastructures have lifespans exceeding 75 years, the increase in extremes has important implications on service levels of water infrastructures and public safety. Estimated increases in precipitation associated to very extreme precipitation events (e.g. 100 years) will drastically change the likelihood of flooding and their extent in future climate. These results, although interesting, need to be extended to sub-daily durations, relevant for urban flooding protection and urban infrastructure design (e.g. sewer networks, culverts). Models and simulations at finer spatial and temporal resolution are therefore needed.

The future of transit in West Virginia.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-12-01

The Future of Transit in West Virginia is a study of the current system of public transportation in West Virginia and : an examination of issues, priorities and projections of the public transportation network in the coming years. The : purpose...

Structural Peculiarities of Social Mental Abilities of Future Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yermentayevaa, Ardakh Rizabekovna; Kenzhebayeva, Kundyz Serikovna; Umirbekova, Akerke Nurlanbekovna; Aubakirova, Zhanat Kanashovna; Iskakova, Akmaral Bakytbekovna

2016-01-01

The problem of social intelligence of researchers has attracted attention in recent years. Social intelligence is one of the most important characteristics of teachers. The aim of this research was to study features of structure of social intelligence of future teachers. The respondents in this study were selected 360 students of pedagogical…

Using Technology in Undergraduate Admission: Current Practices and Future Plans

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lindbeck, Robin; Fodrey, Brian

2009-01-01

The purpose of this study was to identify the current practices and future plans for using technology in admission practices at four-year colleges and universities. This study collected data through an online survey. The survey was largely quantitative but also included several qualitative questions, and focused on 12 broad categories of…

Interfutures: Facing the Future, Mastering the Probable and Managing the Unpredictable.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris (France).

This report discusses the findings of the three year Interfutures Project which studied the future development of advanced industrial societies and the relations between these countries and the developing countries. The major emphasis of the project was to analyze economic problems. However, political and social elements were also studied. The…

Balancing Risk? First Year Performing Arts Students' Experience of a Community Arts Event

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hains-Wesson, Rachael; Campbell, Angela

2014-01-01

This study examines participants' responses to first year students' street performances as a non-placement work-integrated learning (WIL) activity over a two year period. The purpose of the study was to determine: (1) community perception, (2) continuous improvement, and (3) future needs. Data was collected through surveying participants'…

Reporting Crime Victimizations to the Police and the Incidence of Future Victimizations: A Longitudinal Study.

PubMed

Ranapurwala, Shabbar I; Berg, Mark T; Casteel, Carri

2016-01-01

Law enforcement depends on cooperation from the public and crime victims to protect citizens and maintain public safety; however, many crimes are not reported to police because of fear of repercussions or because the crime is considered trivial. It is unclear how police reporting affects the incidence of future victimization. To evaluate the association between reporting victimization to police and incident future victimization. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using National Crime Victimization Survey 2008-2012 data. Participants were 12+ years old household members who may or may not be victimized, were followed biannually for 3 years, and who completed at least one follow-up survey after their first reported victimization between 2008 and 2012. Crude and adjusted generalized linear mixed regression for survey data with Poisson link were used to compare rates of future victimization. Out of 18,657 eligible participants, 41% participants reported to their initial victimization to police and had a future victimization rate of 42.8/100 person-years (PY) (95% CI: 40.7, 44.8). The future victimization rate of those who did not report to the police (59%) was 55.0/100 PY (95% CI: 53.0, 57.0). The adjusted rate ratio comparing police reporting to not reporting was 0.78 (95%CI: 0.72, 0.84) for all future victimizations, 0.80 (95% CI: 0.72, 0.90) for interpersonal violence, 0.73 (95% CI: 0.68, 0.78) for thefts, and 0.95 (95% CI: 0.84, 1.07) for burglaries. Reporting victimization to police is associated with fewer future victimization, underscoring the importance of police reporting in crime prevention. This association may be attributed to police action and victim services provisions resulting from reporting.

Reporting Crime Victimizations to the Police and the Incidence of Future Victimizations: A Longitudinal Study

PubMed Central

Ranapurwala, Shabbar I.; Berg, Mark T.; Casteel, Carri

2016-01-01

Background Law enforcement depends on cooperation from the public and crime victims to protect citizens and maintain public safety; however, many crimes are not reported to police because of fear of repercussions or because the crime is considered trivial. It is unclear how police reporting affects the incidence of future victimization. Objective To evaluate the association between reporting victimization to police and incident future victimization. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study using National Crime Victimization Survey 2008–2012 data. Participants were 12+ years old household members who may or may not be victimized, were followed biannually for 3 years, and who completed at least one follow-up survey after their first reported victimization between 2008 and 2012. Crude and adjusted generalized linear mixed regression for survey data with Poisson link were used to compare rates of future victimization. Results Out of 18,657 eligible participants, 41% participants reported to their initial victimization to police and had a future victimization rate of 42.8/100 person-years (PY) (95% CI: 40.7, 44.8). The future victimization rate of those who did not report to the police (59%) was 55.0/100 PY (95% CI: 53.0, 57.0). The adjusted rate ratio comparing police reporting to not reporting was 0.78 (95%CI: 0.72, 0.84) for all future victimizations, 0.80 (95% CI: 0.72, 0.90) for interpersonal violence, 0.73 (95% CI: 0.68, 0.78) for thefts, and 0.95 (95% CI: 0.84, 1.07) for burglaries. Conclusions Reporting victimization to police is associated with fewer future victimization, underscoring the importance of police reporting in crime prevention. This association may be attributed to police action and victim services provisions resulting from reporting. PMID:27466811

Future-directed thinking in first-episode psychosis.

PubMed

Goodby, Emmeline; MacLeod, Andrew K

2016-06-01

This study employed the Future Thinking Task (MacLeod et al., 2005, Br. J. Clin. Psychol., 44, 495) to investigate whether future-directed thinking in first-episode psychosis is significantly different from that of matched controls, and to identify its correlates in this patient group. Cross-sectional, mixed-model, case-control design. Participants were 30 patients with first-episode psychosis and 27 matched controls. The Future Thinking Task was used to assess future-directed thinking in both groups. Anxiety and depression were also measured as well as self-report measures of hopelessness, suicide ideation and a measure of negative symptoms. Individuals with psychosis were impaired in future-directed thinking in both positive and negative domains, particularly with respect to the coming year. Increased self-reported hopelessness was associated with reduced positive future thinking and increased negative future thinking. Increased positive future thinking was also associated with reduced severity of negative symptoms, whilst negative future thinking was associated with suicide ideation. Individuals with first-episode psychosis show a reduction in positive future thinking in line with that seen in other clinical groups, but this is accompanied by an unexpected reduction in negative future thinking. The findings suggest a general disengagement with the future in this group that may affect recovery and functioning. Individuals with first-episode psychosis may benefit from interventions to help them engage with their future, in particular in the mid-range, up to 1 year. The Future Thinking Task may be a helpful addition to the assessment of suicide risk in those with first-episode psychosis. Decreased positive future thinking was associated with increased severity of negative symptoms, indicating a potential new treatment angle for this resistant aspect of psychosis. The cross-sectional design of this study does not allow for conclusions about the causal relationship between psychosis and future-directed thinking. This study investigated future-directed thinking in individuals with a range of psychotic illnesses employing a trans-diagnostic approach; therefore, conclusions cannot be drawn about the nature of future-directed thinking in individual psychotic disorders. © 2015 The British Psychological Society.

Professional identity, career choices, and working conditions of future and young dentists in Germany - study design and methods of a nationwide comprehensive survey.

PubMed

Kettler, Nele; Frenzel Baudisch, Nicolas; Micheelis, Wolfgang; Klingenberger, David; Jordan, A Rainer

2017-10-18

Little is known regarding young and future dentists' career choices, professional identity, and working conditions in Germany. While the dental healthcare environment and demands in treatment are changing, it remains unclear what job perceptions young dentists have developed at the beginning of their work life and if and how these perceptions change during the subsequent years. The aim of this study was to survey future and young dentists regarding their professional identity, planned career paths, and working conditions and strains to understand career decisions and choices and enable policy makers to include future dentists' views and expectations in their decisions. This study is a longitudinal nationwide survey over a time span of 4 years of dental students and young dentists in Germany and is comprised of three waves. The first wave focuses on dental students in their final year before the state examination and is composed of a qualitative pre-study in the form of focus groups and a quantitative main survey in the form of a questionnaire. The end points were established to analyse (1) the professional identity of the young future dentists; (2) their career paths, preparation for a career, and basic career conditions; and (3) perceived conditions and strains. The aim of the overall survey was to depict the development of these three aspects during the first years of work life. All of the questions were evaluated with a descriptive univariate analysis. The analysed subgroups were grouped according to gender, target working condition (employed/self-employed), and primary socialisation (parents dentists/parents not dentists). To our knowledge, this is the only study which focuses on career choices, professional identity, and working conditions of future and young dentists in Germany. The longitudinal observation provides information that is essential for professional and purposive dental health care planning, and to meet the oral health demands and needs of the German population appropriately over the long term. German Health Services Research Data Bank VfD_Y-Dent_14_003759 .

Prediagnostic serum levels of inflammatory biomarkers are correlated with future development of lung and esophageal cancer

PubMed Central

Keeley, Brieze R; Islami, Farhad; Pourshams, Akram; Poustchi, Hossein; Pak, Jamie S; Brennan, Paul; Khademi, Hooman; Genden, Eric M; Abnet, Christian C; Dawsey, Sanford M; Boffetta, Paolo; Malekzadeh, Reza; Sikora, Andrew G

2014-01-01

This study tests the hypothesis that prediagnostic serum levels of 20 cancer-associated inflammatory biomarkers correlate directly with future development of head and neck, esophageal, and lung cancers in a high-risk prospective cohort. This is a nested case–control pilot study of subjects enrolled in the Golestan Cohort Study, an ongoing epidemiologic project assessing cancer trends in Golestan, Iran. We measured a panel of 20 21cytokines, chemokines, and inflammatory molecules using Luminex technology in serum samples collected 2 or more years before cancer diagnosis in 78 aerodigestive cancer cases and 81 controls. Data was analyzed using Wilcoxon rank sum test, odds ratios, receiver operating characteristic areas of discrimination, and multivariate analysis. Biomarkers were profoundly and globally elevated in future esophageal and lung cancer patients compared to controls. Odds ratios were significant for association between several biomarkers and future development of esophageal cancer, including interleukin-1Rα (IL-1Ra; 35.9), interferon α2 (IFN-a2; 34.0), fibroblast growth factor-2 (FGF-2; 17.4), and granulocyte/macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF; 17.4). The same pattern was observed among future lung cancer cases for G-CSF (27.7), GM-CSF (13.3), and tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-a; 8.6). By contrast, the majority of biomarkers studied showed no significant correlation with future head and neck cancer development. This study provides the first direct evidence that multiple inflammatory biomarkers are coordinately elevated in future lung and esophageal cancer patients 2 or more years before cancer diagnosis. PMID:25040886

The effect of future outdoor air pollution on human health and the contribution of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, R.; West, J. J.; Lamarque, J.; Shindell, D.; Collins, W.; Dalsoren, S. B.; Faluvegi, G. S.; Folberth, G.; Horowitz, L. W.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, V.; Rumbold, S.; Skeie, R.; Sudo, K.; Takemura, T.; Bergmann, D. J.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.; Cionni, I.; Doherty, R. M.; Eyring, V.; Josse, B.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Plummer, D.; Righi, M.; Stevenson, D. S.; Strode, S. A.; Szopa, S.; Zeng, G.

2013-12-01

At present, exposure to outdoor air pollution from ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) causes over 2 million deaths per year, due to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and lung cancer. Future ambient concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 will be affected by both air pollutant emissions and climate change. Here we estimate the potential impact of future outdoor air pollution on premature human mortality, and isolate the contribution of future climate change due to its effect on air quality. We use modeled present-day (2000) and future global ozone and PM2.5 concentrations from simulations with an ensemble of chemistry-climate models from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). Future air pollution was modeled for global greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions in the four IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, for 2030, 2050 and 2100. All model outputs are regridded to a common 0.5°x0.5° horizontal resolution. Future premature mortality is estimated for each RCP scenario and year based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 relative to 2000. Using a health impact function, changes in concentrations for each RCP scenario are combined with future population and cause-specific baseline mortality rates as projected by a single independent scenario in which the global incidence of cardiopulmonary diseases is expected to increase. The effect of climate change is isolated by considering the difference between air pollutant concentrations from simulations with 2000 emissions and a future year climate and simulations with 2000 emissions and climate. Uncertainties in the results reflect the uncertainty in the concentration-response function and that associated with variability among models. Few previous studies have quantified the effects of future climate change on global human health via changes in air quality, and this is the first such study to use an ensemble of global models.

What Next?: Educational Innovation and Philadelphia's School of the Future. Educational Innovations Series

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cullinane, Mary, Ed.; Hess, Frederick M., Ed.

2010-01-01

"What Next?" offers a detailed study of the School of the Future's first three years (2006-2009) revealing what the School of the Future can teach us about high school redesign, public-private partnerships, and the use of technology in school reform. When the school district of Philadelphia teamed up with the Microsoft Corporation in…

The Monitoring the Future Project after Four Decades: Design and Procedures. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper Series. Paper 82

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bachman, Jerald G.; Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Schulenberg, John E.; Miech, Richard A.

2015-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to provide a detailed description of the Monitoring the Future research design, including sampling design, data collection procedures, measurement content, and questionnaire format. This study assesses the changing lifestyles, values, and preferences of American youth on a continuing basis. Each year since 1975, at…

Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7-11 years) Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study.

PubMed

Faber, Irene R; Elferink-Gemser, Marije T; Faber, Niels R; Oosterveld, Frits G J; Nijhuis-Van der Sanden, Maria W G

2016-01-01

Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players' potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player's future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7-11 years). Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05). Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items 'aiming at target', 'throwing a ball', and 'eye-hand coordination' in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%). Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment's outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%). This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be included in a talent development programme. Future studies are needed to clarify the predictive value in a larger sample of youth competition players over a longer period in time.

Controlling the Growth of Future LEO Debris Populations with Active Debris Removal

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liou, J.-C.; Johnson, N. L.; Hill, N. M.

2008-01-01

Active debris removal (ADR) was suggested as a potential means to remediate the low Earth orbit (LEO) debris environment as early as the 1980s. The reasons ADR has not become practical are due to its technical difficulties and the high cost associated with the approach. However, as the LEO debris populations continue to increase, ADR may be the only option to preserve the near-Earth environment for future generations. An initial study was completed in 2007 to demonstrate that a simple ADR target selection criterion could be developed to reduce the future debris population growth. The present paper summarizes a comprehensive study based on more realistic simulation scenarios, including fragments generated from the 2007 Fengyun-1C event, mitigation measures, and other target selection options. The simulations were based on the NASA long-term orbital debris projection model, LEGEND. A scenario, where at the end of mission lifetimes, spacecraft and upper stages were moved to 25-year decay orbits, was adopted as the baseline environment for comparison. Different annual removal rates and different ADR target selection criteria were tested, and the resulting 200-year future environment projections were compared with the baseline scenario. Results of this parametric study indicate that (1) an effective removal strategy can be developed based on the mass and collision probability of each object as the selection criterion, and (2) the LEO environment can be stabilized in the next 200 years with an ADR removal rate of five objects per year.

The Impact of Future Emissions Changes on Air Pollution Concentrations and Related Human Health Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikolajczyk, U.; Suppan, P.; Williams, M.

2015-12-01

Quantification of potential health benefits of reductions in air pollution on the local scale is becoming increasingly important. The aim of this study is to conduct health impact assessment (HIA) by utilizing regionally and spatially specific data in order to assess the influence of future emission scenarios on human health. In the first stage of this investigation, a modeling study was carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with Chemistry to estimate ambient concentrations of air pollutants for the baseline year 2009, and for the future emission scenarios in southern Germany. Anthropogenic emissions for the baseline year 2009 are derived from the emission inventory provided by the Netherlands Organization of Applied Scientific Research (TNO) (Denier van der Gon et al., 2010). For Germany, the TNO emissions were replaced by gridded emission data with a high spatial resolution of 1/64 x 1/64 degrees. Future air quality simulations are carried out under different emission scenarios, which reflect possible energy and climate measures in year 2030. The model set-up included a nesting approach, where three domains with horizontal resolution of 18 km, 6 km and 2 km were defined. The simulation results for the baseline year 2009 are used to quantify present-day health burdens. Concentration-response functions (CRFs) for PM2.5 and NO2 from the WHO Health risks of air Pollution in Europe (HRAPIE) project were applied to population-weighted mean concentrations to estimate relative risks and hence to determine numbers of attributable deaths and associated life-years lost. In the next step, future health impacts of projected concentrations were calculated taking into account different emissions scenarios. The health benefits that we assume with air pollution reductions can be used to provide options for future policy decisions to protect public health.

Anticipated debt and financial stress in medical students.

PubMed

Morra, Dante J; Regehr, Glenn; Ginsburg, Shiphra

2008-01-01

While medical student debt is increasing, the effect of debt on student well-being and performance remains unclear. As a part of a larger study examining medical student views of their future profession, data were collected to examine the role that current and anticipated debt has in predicting stress among medical students. A survey was administered to medical students in all four years at the University of Toronto. Of the 804 potential respondents across the four years of training, 549 surveys had sufficient data for inclusion in this analysis, for a response rate of 68%. Through multiple regression analysis, we evaluated the correlation between current and anticipated debt and financial stress. Although perceived financial stress correlates with both current and anticipated debt levels, anticipated debt was able to account for an additional 11.5% of variance in reported stress when compared to current debt levels alone. This study demonstrates a relationship between perceived financial stress and debt levels, and suggests that anticipated debt levels might be a more robust metric to capture financial burden, as it standardizes for year of training and captures future financial liabilities (future tuition and other future expenses).

Technology-based interpersonal victimization: predictors of patterns of victimization over time.

PubMed

Korchmaros, Josephine D; Mitchell, Kimberly J; Ybarra, Michele L

2014-05-01

The objective of this study was to identify factors that could predict youth's future technology-based interpersonal victimization and the pattern of that future victimization over time. Data from Growing up With Media, a national, longitudinal, online study were analyzed. At baseline, participants (N = 1,018) were 10- to 15-year-old English speakers who had used the Internet at least once in the last 6 months. Twenty-nine percent reported repeat technology-based interpersonal victimization over a 2-year period (re-victimized group); 10% were victims during only Year 1 (desisted victimized group); and 17% reported victimization during only Year 2 (later victimized group). Of the individual risk factors examined, prior technology-based interpersonal victimization and current amount of Internet use had the strongest overall associations with pattern of technology-based interpersonal victimization over the subsequent 2-year period. There was substantial overlap among the individual risk factors. Thus, they could be thought of more simply in terms of four latent risk and three individual risk factors. On average, across these seven risk factors, repeat victims had the greatest average risk score (0.21) and the not victimized group had the lowest (-0.16). Repeat victims were more likely to be female and older and had more prior experience with problem behaviors, substance use, and negative parent-child relationships as compared with the other three groups. Being female, prior experience with problem behavior, prior substance use, and prior negative parent-child relationships were also associated with frequency of technology-based interpersonal victimization in the near (Year 1) and more distant (Year 2) future. Many of these risk factors related to technology-based victimization over time are malleable, suggesting opportunities for effective targeting of future prevention efforts.

Leading Change: Jesuit Higher Education in the Twenty-First Century

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lowdon, Melissa

2010-01-01

This study explored perceptions of possible future scenarios for Jesuit higher education in the United States by the year 2030. This study focused on two questions, (a) How do leaders perceive the future of Jesuit higher education? and (b) What key factors identified by these leaders will lead to the most desirable outcome for Jesuit higher…

Digital Skills Acquisition: Future Trends among Older Adults

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gilliam, Brian K.

2011-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to identify future trends and barriers that will either facilitate or impede the narrowing of the digital skills divide among older adults during the next 10 years. Methodology: To address the research questions, this study used a modified version of the Delphi process using a panel of experts who…

Developing a Consensus-Driven, Core Competency Model to Shape Future Audio Engineering Technology Curriculum: A Web-Based Modified Delphi Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tough, David T.

2009-01-01

The purpose of this online study was to create a ranking of essential core competencies and technologies required by AET (audio engineering technology) programs 10 years in the future. The study was designed to facilitate curriculum development and improvement in the rapidly expanding number of small to medium sized audio engineering technology…

The Objectives and Theoretical Foundation of the Monitoring the Future Study. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper Series. Paper 84

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Schulenberg, John E.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Miech, Richard A.; Patrick, Megan E.

2016-01-01

This study assesses the changing lifestyles, values, and preferences of American youth on a continuing basis. Each year since 1975, at least 13,000 seniors have participated in the annual survey, which is conducted in some 130 high schools nationwide. Since 1991, the study's annual surveys also have included surveys of similar nationally…

A lifespan perspective on terrorism: age differences in trajectories of response to 9/11.

PubMed

Scott, Stacey B; Poulin, Michael J; Silver, Roxane Cohen

2013-05-01

A terrorist attack is an adverse event characterized by both an event-specific stressor and concern about future threats. Little is known about age differences in responses to terrorism. This longitudinal study examined generalized distress, posttraumatic stress responses, and fear of future attacks following the September 11, 2001 (9/11) terrorist attacks among a large U.S. national sample of adults (N = 2,240) aged 18-101 years. Individuals completed Web-based surveys up to 6 times over 3 years post 9/11. Multilevel models revealed different age-related patterns for distress, posttraumatic stress, and ongoing fear of future attacks. Specifically, older age was associated with lower overall levels of general distress, a steeper decline in posttraumatic stress over time, and less change in fear of future terrorist attacks over the 3 years. Understanding age differences in response to the stress of terrorism adds to the growing body of work on age differences in reactions to adversity.

Optimism for the Future in Younger and Older Adults.

PubMed

Durbin, Kelly A; Barber, Sarah J; Brown, Maddalena; Mather, Mara

2018-01-09

Research has suggested that older adults are less optimistic about their future than younger adults; however, a limitation of prior studies is that younger and older adults were forecasting to different ages and stages of life. To address this, we investigated whether there are age differences in future optimism when people project to the exact same age. We also tested whether optimism differs when projecting one's own future versus another person's future. Participants were 285 younger and 292 older adults recruited from Amazon Mechanical Turk. Participants completed writing and word-rating tasks in which they imagined their own future in 15 years, their own future at age 85, or the average person's future at age 85. Younger adults were more optimistic than older adults about their own future in 15 years. In contrast, both age groups were similarly optimistic about their future at age 85 and expected it to be more positive than others' future at age 85. Contrary to previous research, younger and older adults had comparable future forecasts when projecting to the exact same age. These findings emphasize the need to consider age and stage of life when examining age differences in future optimism. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Reverters from PD-MCI to cognitively intact are at risk for future cognitive impairment: Analysis of the PPMI cohort.

PubMed

Jones, Jacob D; Kuhn, Taylor P; Szymkowicz, Sarah M

2018-02-01

Past studies have shown that a large portion of individuals with Parkinson's disease (PD) and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) will revert to a cognitively intact (CI) status in the future. Aging studies have shown that individuals who revert from MCI to CI are at increased risk for reconverting to MCI or dementia in the future. The current study examined if individuals who revert from PD-mild cognitive impairment (PD-MCI) to CI will be at increased risk for future PD-MCI and Parkinson's disease dementia (PDD). The study utilized data from the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI). The sample included 364 newly diagnosed PD participants who were followed annually for up to 4 years. Based on the first and second assessments, we identified individuals who were CI at each assessment (CI-Stable) and individuals who were PD-MCI at baseline but then reverted to CI (Reversion). Analyses examined if participants in the Reversion group were at greater risk, relative to the CI-Stable group, for cognitive impairment at future assessments. Participants in the Reversion group were at greater risk for future cognitive impairment (PD-MCI or PDD) at the 2nd, 3rd and 4th annual follow-up, relative to the CI-Stable group. The Reversion group continued to be at increased risk for future cognitive impairment when adjusting for age, gender, education, depressive symptoms, and motor severity. A large proportion of individuals with PD-MCI will not show evidence of cognitive impairment within a year. However, these "reverters" continue to be at risk for future development of cognitive impairment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[A self-improvement and participatory career development education program involving internships and volunteer training experience for pharmacy students: results verified in a follow-up survey three years after participation].

PubMed

Kurio, Wasako; Konishi, Motomi; Okuno, Tomofumi; Nakao, Teruyuki; Kimura, Tomoki; Tsuji, Takumi; Yamamuro, Akiko; Yamamoto, Yumi; Nishikawa, Tomoe; Yanada, Kazuo; Yasuhara, Tomohisa; Kohno, Takeyuki; Ogita, Kiyokazu; Sone, Tomomichi

2014-01-01

The Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Setsunan University, offers the Self-improvement and Participatory Career Development Education Program: Internship and Volunteer Training Experience for Pharmacy Students to third-year students. We previously reported that the training experience was effective in cultivating important attributes among students, such as a willingness to learn the aims of pharmacists, an awareness of their own role as healthcare workers, and a desire to reflect on their future careers and lives. A follow-up survey of the participants was carried out three years after the training experience. The questionnaire verified that the training experience affected attendance at subsequent lectures and course determination after graduation. We confirmed the relationship between the participants' degree of satisfaction with the training experience and increased motivation for attending subsequent lectures. Through the training experience, participants discovered future targets and subjects of study. In addition, they became more interested in subsequent classroom lessons and their future. The greater the participants' degree of satisfaction with their training experience, the more interest they took in practical training and future courses. The present study clarified that the training experience was effective in cultivating important attributes such as a willingness to learn and an interest in future courses. Moreover, the training positively affected the course determination after graduation.

An Analysis of the Future Need for Certified Animal Health Technicians and Instructional Program Content.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nevada State Council on Occupational Education, Carson City.

A study examined the future need for certified animal health technicians (CAHT) in Nevada and the skills/knowledge that future CAHTs will need. Questionnaires were mailed to all of Nevada's 306 licensed veterinarians; 100 (32.68%) responded. The estimated numbers of CAHTs needed by the state's veterinarians in 1, 3, and 5 years were 62, 142, and…

"When Did I Learn and When Shall I Act?": The Developmental Relationship between Episodic Future Thinking and Memory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Naito, Mika; Suzuki, Toshiko

2011-01-01

This study investigated the development of the ability to reflect on one's personal past and future. A total of 64 4- to 6-year-olds received tasks of delayed self-recognition, source memory, delay of gratification, and a newly developed task of future-oriented action timing. Although children's performance on delayed self-recognition, source…

International Recommendations for Training Future Toxicologic Pathologists Participating in Regulatory-Type, Nonclinical Toxicity Studies*

PubMed Central

Bolon, Brad; Barale-Thomas, Erio; Bradley, Alys; Ettlin, Robert A.; Franchi, Carla A.S.; George, Catherine; Giusti, Anna Maria; Hall, Robert; Jacobsen, Matthew; Konishi, Yoichi; Ledieu, David; Morton, Daniel; Park, Jae-Hak; Scudamore, Cheryl L.; Tsuda, Hiroyuki; Vijayasarathi, S.K.; Wijnands, Marcel V.W.

2010-01-01

The International Federation of Societies of Toxicologic Pathologists (IFSTP) proposes a common global framework for training future toxicologic pathologists who will support regulatory-type nonclinical toxicology studies. Trainees optimally should undertake a scientific curriculum of at least 5 years at an accredited institution leading to a clinical degree (veterinary medicine or medicine). Trainees should then obtain 4 or more years of intensive pathology practice during a residency and/or on-the-job “apprenticeship,” at least 2 years of which must be focused on regulatory-type toxicologic pathology topics. Possession of a recognized pathology qualification (i.e., certification) is highly recommended. A non-clinical pathway (e.g., a graduate degree in medical biology or pathology) may be possible if medically trained pathologists are scarce, but this option is not optimal. Regular, lifelong continuing education (peer review of nonclinical studies, professional meetings, reading, short courses) will be necessary to maintain and enhance one’s understanding of current toxicologic pathology knowledge, skills, and tools. This framework should provide a rigorous yet flexible way to reliably train future toxicologic pathologists to generate, interpret, integrate, and communicate data in regulatory-type, nonclinical toxicology studies. PMID:22272030

Children's success at detecting circular explanations and their interest in future learning.

PubMed

Mills, Candice M; Danovitch, Judith H; Rowles, Sydney P; Campbell, Ian L

2017-10-01

These studies explore elementary-school-aged children's ability to evaluate circular explanations and whether they respond to receiving weak explanations by expressing interest in additional learning. In the first study, 6-, 8-, and 10-year-olds (n = 53) heard why questions about unfamiliar animals. For each question, they rated the quality of single explanations and later selected the best explanation between pairs of circular and noncircular explanations. When judging single explanations, 8- and 10-year-olds, and to some extent 6-year-olds, provided higher ratings for noncircular explanations compared to circular ones. When selecting between pairs of explanations, all age groups preferred noncircular explanations to circular ones, but older children did so more consistently than 6-year-olds. Children who recognized the weakness of the single circular explanations were more interested in receiving additional information about the question topics. In Study 2, all three age groups (n = 87) provided higher ratings for noncircular explanations compared to circular ones when listening to responses to how questions, but older children showed a greater distinction in their ratings than 6-year-olds. Moreover, the link between recognizing circular explanations as weak and interest in future learning could not be accounted for solely by individual differences in verbal intelligence. These findings illustrate the developmental trajectory of explanation evaluation and support that recognition of weak explanations is linked to interest in future learning across the elementary years. Implications for education are discussed.

Comparison of future and base precipitation anomalies by SimCLIM statistical projection through ensemble approach in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amin, Asad; Nasim, Wajid; Mubeen, Muhammad; Kazmi, Dildar Hussain; Lin, Zhaohui; Wahid, Abdul; Sultana, Syeda Refat; Gibbs, Jim; Fahad, Shah

2017-09-01

Unpredictable precipitation trends have largely influenced by climate change which prolonged droughts or floods in South Asia. Statistical analysis of monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation trend carried out for different temporal (1996-2015 and 2041-2060) and spatial scale (39 meteorological stations) in Pakistan. Statistical downscaling model (SimCLIM) was used for future precipitation projection (2041-2060) and analyzed by statistical approach. Ensemble approach combined with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) at medium level used for future projections. The magnitude and slop of trends were derived by applying Mann-Kendal and Sen's slop statistical approaches. Geo-statistical application used to generate precipitation trend maps. Comparison of base and projected precipitation by statistical analysis represented by maps and graphical visualization which facilitate to detect trends. Results of this study projects that precipitation trend was increasing more than 70% of weather stations for February, March, April, August, and September represented as base years. Precipitation trend was decreased in February to April but increase in July to October in projected years. Highest decreasing trend was reported in January for base years which was also decreased in projected years. Greater variation in precipitation trends for projected and base years was reported in February to April. Variations in projected precipitation trend for Punjab and Baluchistan highly accredited in March and April. Seasonal analysis shows large variation in winter, which shows increasing trend for more than 30% of weather stations and this increased trend approaches 40% for projected precipitation. High risk was reported in base year pre-monsoon season where 90% of weather station shows increasing trend but in projected years this trend decreased up to 33%. Finally, the annual precipitation trend has increased for more than 90% of meteorological stations in base (1996-2015) which has decreased for projected year (2041-2060) up to 76%. These result revealed that overall precipitation trend is decreasing in future year which may prolonged the drought in 14% of weather stations under study.

Motivation and future temporal orientation: a test of the self-handicapping hypothesis.

PubMed

Lennings, C J

1999-06-01

Self-handicapping motivation refers to the likelihood a person will project personal ambition into the future, make a pessimistic judgement, and then mobilise effort in the present to avoid an anticipated negative outcome. It should, therefore, be a correlate of future time perspective. This study showed for a sample of 120 first-year students that, whilst future time perspective did strongly predict scores on a measure of self-handicapping motivation, neither variable was a useful predictor of outcome.

[Analysis and design structure of an aging society].

PubMed

Fujimasa, Iwao

2012-01-01

On observing present Japanese society, we can find deep gaps between the present system and its probable future. One of the gaps may be due to the misconception that future societal make up is not definite. The aim of the current study was to investigate a future societal structure and to develop methods of adding a timed dimension policy to the societal structure. This is named "A theory of structuralism economics". We developed 3 societal structure projection engines and applied a system of dynamics language to estimate the future total population of Japan. The Japan total population reached a maximum in 2005, and thereafter depopulation begun. The populations in the younger working age group (from 25 to 54 years old) and those in the elderly working age group (from 55 to 84 years old) became almost equal in 2010. As economic growth rate depends upon an increase in the working population, the increase in national income rate of Japan approached over 10% per year between 1950 to 1970. The increased working age population of the same period exceeded 2.5% annually. However, after 2005 depopulation began in Japan. In future, national income will decrease proportional to the working age population, but personal national income will hold almost unchanged. We propose a new strategy for future society structure. The working age should be extended by 10 years. Labor power will come to exceed 60% of the population and will thereafter become stable.

Comparative optimism in older adults' future health expectations.

PubMed

Vanderzanden, Karen; Ruthig, Joelle C

2018-05-13

Despite a common belief that health declines with age, many older adults remain optimistic about their future health. However, the longitudinal impact of personal and comparatively optimistic future health estimates (FHEs) is unclear. Among 408 older adults (M age  = 70.32 years), this study identified the prevalence, source, and two-year stability of comparatively optimistic FHEs; examined demographic, psychosocial, and health correlates of comparative FHEs; and assessed the role of comparative FHEs in predicting eight-year survival odds. Nearly half of participants were comparatively optimistic due to interpersonal pessimism more so than personal optimism. Regarding stability, comparative optimism declined over the two-year period. Being younger and having more perceived control, dispositional optimism, and recent positive emotions were associated with better FHEs for oneself and a similar other. Beyond effects of age, gender, relationship status, and dispositional optimism, optimistic personal FHEs predicted eight-year survival odds. Findings have implications for predicting survival and advancing the conceptual understanding of comparative FHEs. Statement of contribution What is already known on the subject? Previous research has demonstrated that older adults tend to believe diminished health accompanies increasing age. Despite this notion, older adults remain comparatively optimistic about their health. What does this study add? The longitudinal results of the current study indicated that nearly half of participants were categorized as comparative optimists, primarily due to interpersonal pessimism. The current study demonstrated that there is little distinction between personal FHEs and those for a similar other in terms of demographic, psychosocial, and health correlates. The current study identified factors that predicted eight-year survival among older adults, such as being female, younger, in a committed relationship, and better personal FHEs. © 2018 The British Psychological Society.

Trajectories of Preparation for Future Care among First-Degree Relatives of Alzheimer's Disease Patients: An Ancillary Study of ADAPT

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mak, Wingyun; Sorensen, Silvia

2012-01-01

Purpose: This study examines the longitudinal patterns of Preparation for Future Care (PFC), defined as Awareness, Avoidance, Gathering Information, Decision Making, and Concrete Plans, in first-degree relatives of people with Alzheimer's disease (AD). Design and Methods: Eight time points across 6.5 years from a subsample of adults aged 70 years…

Getting What You Expect? Future Self-Views Predict the Valence of Life Events

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Voss, Peggy; Kornadt, Anna E.; Rothermund, Klaus

2017-01-01

Views on aging have been shown to predict the occurrence of events related to physical health in previous studies. Extending these findings, we investigated the relation between aging-related future self-views and life events in a longitudinal study across a range of different life domains. Participants (N = 593, age range 30-80 years at…

Future Orientation, Impulsivity, and Problem Behaviors: A Longitudinal Moderation Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Pan; Vazsonyi, Alexander T.

2011-01-01

In the current study, based on a sample of 1,873 adolescents between 11.4 and 20.9 years of age from the first 3 waves of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, we investigated the longitudinal effects of future orientation on levels of and developmental changes in problem behaviors, while controlling for the effects by impulsivity;…

Hopes for the Future: Demographic and Personal Resources Associated with Self-Perceived Employability and Actual Employment among Senior Year Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kasler, Jonathan; Zysberg, Leehu; Harel, Nofar

2017-01-01

Undergraduates approaching completion of their studies may embrace the prospect of entry into the world of work as a challenge or conversely, may view it with trepidation. This study explores three major personal resources that may be associated with how young undergraduates view their future employability: perceived hope, grit and emotional…

Motivated for Leisure in the Future: A Person-Centred Longitudinal Study in the Lowest Level of Secondary Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van der Veen, Ineke; Peetsma, Thea

2011-01-01

Long-term future time perspective on leisure has been found to relate negatively to school effort. This was studied further by recognizing types of students based on developments in long-term leisure perspectives and comparing their development in motivation and academic achievement. Around 1200 12-13 year old students attending the lowest level…

VALUATION OF NATURAL RESOURCE IMPROVEMENTS IN THE ADIRONDACKS

EPA Science Inventory

The benefits of improving natural resources in the Adirondacks are estimated to be between $336 million and $1.1 billion per year (2003$), according to a new study by Resources for the Future. The five-year study, supported by an EPA grant, estimates New Yorkers willingness-to-...

Time perspective and exercise, obesity, and smoking: moderation of associations by age.

PubMed

Guthrie, Lori C; Butler, Stephen C; Lessl, Kristen; Ochi, Onyinyechukwu; Ward, Michael M

2014-01-01

Time perspective, a psychological construct denoting subjective orientation to either present or future concerns, has been inconsistently associated with healthy behaviors in adults. We hypothesized that associations would be stronger in young adults, who are first developing independent attitudes, than in older adults. Cross-sectional survey. The study was conducted in three cities in the Mid-Atlantic region. Subjects were 790 patrons of barber and beauty shops. Measures used were the Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory future, present-fatalistic, and present-hedonistic subscales and current smoking, days per week of recreational exercise, and height and weight, by self-report. We tested if associations between time perspective and exercise, obesity, and current smoking differed by age group (18-24 years, 25-34 years, and 35 years and older) using analysis of variance and logistic regression. Higher future time perspective scores, indicating greater focus on future events, was associated with more frequent exercise, whereas higher present-fatalistic time perspective scores, indicating more hopelessness, was associated with less frequent exercise in 18- to 24-year-olds, but not in older individuals. Lower future time perspective scores, and higher present-hedonistic time perspective scores, indicating interest in pleasure-seeking, were also associated with obesity only in 18- to 24-year-olds. Current smoking was not related to time perspective in any age group. Time perspective has age-specific associations with exercise and obesity, suggesting stages when time perspective may influence health behavior decision making.

Freshman Year Alcohol and Marijuana Use Prospectively Predict Time to College Graduation and Subsequent Adult Roles and Independence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilhite, Emily R.; Ashenhurst, James R.; Marino, Elise N.; Fromme, Kim

2017-01-01

Objective: This study examined how freshman year substance use prospectively predicted time to college graduation, and whether delayed graduation predicted postponed adoption of adult roles and future substance use. Participants: Participants were part of a longitudinal study that began in 2004. The first analyses focused on freshman year (N =…

Planning for the future : the role of mobility in residential and lifestyle choices of baby boomers and older adults.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-06-01

This study explores the extent to which Baby Boomers and older adults take mobility and : transportation issues into consideration as they make individual residential and lifestyle plans for : their future older years. While transportation and urban ...

Synthetic Fuels for Transportation Background Paper #1 : The Future Potential of Electric and Hybrid Vehicles

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1982-03-01

This report presents a comprehensive review of the future of electric and hybrid vehicles through the year 2010 in the United States. It was prepared for the Office of Technology Assessment as background information for its study, "Synthetic Fuels fo...

Projected climate and vegetation changes and potential biotic effects for Fort Benning, Georgia; Fort Hood, Texas; and Fort Irwin, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shafer, S.L.; Atkins, J.; Bancroft, B.A.; Bartlein, P.J.; Lawler, J.J.; Smith, B.; Wilsey, C.B.

2012-01-01

The responses of species and ecosystems to future climate changes will present challenges for conservation and natural resource managers attempting to maintain both species populations and essential habitat. This report describes projected future changes in climate and vegetation for three study areas surrounding the military installations of Fort Benning, Georgia, Fort Hood, Texas, and Fort Irwin, California. Projected climate changes are described for the time period 2070–2099 (30-year mean) as compared to 1961–1990 (30-year mean) for each study area using data simulated by the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), and UKMO-HadCM3, run under the B1, A1B, and A2 future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. These climate data are used to simulate potential changes in important components of the vegetation for each study area using LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, and LPJ-GUESS, a dynamic vegetation model optimized for regional studies. The simulated vegetation results are compared with observed vegetation data for the study areas. Potential effects of the simulated future climate and vegetation changes for species and habitats of management concern are discussed in each study area, with a particular focus on federally listed threatened and endangered species.

Motivational Antecedents of Preventive Proactivity in Late Life: Linking Future Orientation and Exercise1

PubMed Central

Kahana, Eva; Kahana, Boaz; Zhang, Jianping

2007-01-01

Future orientation is considered as a motivational antecedent of late-life proactivity. In a panel study of 453 old-old adults, we linked future orientation to exercise, a key component of late-life proactivity. Findings based on hierarchical linear modeling reveal that future orientation at baseline predicts changes in exercise during the subsequent four years. Whereas exercise behavior generally declined over time, future orientation and female gender were associated with smaller decline. These results suggest that future-oriented thinking has a lasting impact on health promotion behavior. Future orientation thus represents a dispositional antecedent of preventive proactivity as proposed in our successful aging model. PMID:18080009

Future disability projections could be improved by connecting to the theory of a dynamic equilibrium.

PubMed

Klijs, Bart; Mackenbach, Johan P; Kunst, Anton E

2011-04-01

Projections of future trends in the burden of disability could be guided by models linking disability to life expectancy, such as the dynamic equilibrium theory. This article tests the key assumption of this theory that severe disability is associated with proximity to death, whereas mild disability is not. Using data from the GLOBE study (Gezondheid en Levensomstandigheden Bevolking Eindhoven en omstreken), the association of three levels of self-reported disabilities in activities of daily living with age and proximity to death was studied using logistic regression models. Regression estimates were used to estimate the number of life years with disability for life spans of 75 and 85 years. Odds ratios of 0.976 (not significant) for mild disability, 1.137 for moderate disability, and 1.231 for severe disability showed a stronger effect of proximity to death for more severe levels of disability. A 10-year increase of life span was estimated to result in a substantial expansion of mild disability (4.6 years) compared with a small expansion of moderate (0.7 years) and severe (0.9 years) disability. These findings support the theory of a dynamic equilibrium. Projections of the future burden of disability could be substantially improved by connecting to this theory and incorporating information on proximity to death. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Moxie matters: associations of future orientation with active life expectancy.

PubMed

Laditka, Sarah B; Laditka, James N

2017-10-01

Being oriented toward the future has been associated with better future health. We studied associations of future orientation with life expectancy and the percentage of life with disability. We used the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (n = 5249). Participants' average age in 1968 was 33.0. Six questions repeatedly measured future orientation, 1968-1976. Seven waves (1999-2011, 33,331 person-years) measured disability in activities of daily living for the same individuals, whose average age in 1999 was 64.0. We estimated monthly probabilities of disability and death with multinomial logistic Markov models adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, childhood health, and education. Using the probabilities, we created large populations with microsimulation, measuring disability in each month for each individual, age 55 through death. Life expectancy from age 55 for white men with high future orientation was age 77.6 (95% confidence interval 75.5-79.0), 6.9% (4.9-7.2) of those years with disability; results with low future orientation were 73.6 (72.2-75.4) and 9.6% (7.7-10.7). Comparable results for African American men were 74.8 (72.9-75.3), 8.1 (5.6-9.3), 71.0 (69.6-72.8), and 11.3 (9.1-11.7). For women, there were no significant differences associated with levels of future orientation for life expectancy. For white women with high future orientation 9.1% of remaining life from age 55 was disabled (6.3-9.9), compared to 12.4% (10.2-13.2) with low future orientation. Disability results for African American women were similar but statistically significant only at age 80 and over. High future orientation during early to middle adult ages may be associated with better health in older age.

"Too Hot for the Reindeer"--Voicing Sami Children's Visions of the Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jonsson, Gunnar; Sarri, Carina; Alerby, Eva

2012-01-01

In this paper, we focus attention on the issue of the future by listening to the voices of Indigenous children in the far north of Sweden--the Sami children. The overall aim of the study is to explore the meaning of Sami children's visions of the future. The participants attend the same Sami School, and they were of the age of 9-12 years. Data…

Past speculations of the future: a review of the methods used for forecasting emerging health technologies

PubMed Central

Doos, Lucy; Packer, Claire; Ward, Derek; Simpson, Sue; Stevens, Andrew

2016-01-01

Objectives Forecasting can support rational decision-making around the introduction and use of emerging health technologies and prevent investment in technologies that have limited long-term potential. However, forecasting methods need to be credible. We performed a systematic search to identify the methods used in forecasting studies to predict future health technologies within a 3–20-year timeframe. Identification and retrospective assessment of such methods potentially offer a route to more reliable prediction. Design Systematic search of the literature to identify studies reported on methods of forecasting in healthcare. Participants People are not needed in this study. Data sources The authors searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsychINFO and grey literature sources, and included articles published in English that reported their methods and a list of identified technologies. Main outcome measure Studies reporting methods used to predict future health technologies within a 3–20-year timeframe with an identified list of individual healthcare technologies. Commercially sponsored reviews, long-term futurology studies (with over 20-year timeframes) and speculative editorials were excluded. Results 15 studies met our inclusion criteria. Our results showed that the majority of studies (13/15) consulted experts either alone or in combination with other methods such as literature searching. Only 2 studies used more complex forecasting tools such as scenario building. Conclusions The methodological fundamentals of formal 3–20-year prediction are consistent but vary in details. Further research needs to be conducted to ascertain if the predictions made were accurate and whether accuracy varies by the methods used or by the types of technologies identified. PMID:26966060

Simulating the Interactions Among Land Use, Transportation, and Economy to Inform Light Rail Transit Decisions

EPA Science Inventory

In most transportation studies, computer models that forecast travel behavior statistics for a future year use static projections of the spatial distribution of future population and employment growth as inputs. As a result, they are unable to account for the temporally dynamic a...

Simulating the Interactions Among Land Use, Transportation, and Economy to Inform Light Rail Transit Decisions (proceedings)

EPA Science Inventory

In most transportation studies, computer models that forecast travel behavior statistics for a future year use static projections of the spatial distribution of future population and employment growth as inputs. As a result, they are unable to account for the temporally dynamic a...

A Longitudinal Study of Adolescents' Future Orientation (Time Perspective).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Trommsdorff, Gisela; And Others

1979-01-01

Vocational or college-bound students responded to four futures orientation variables (personality, physical well-being, family, and occupation) along several dimensions, including hopes and fears, locus of control, and optimism. The same students took the same survey two years later. Age, sex, and educational status differences were noted. (CP)

Response of streamflow to projected climate change scenarios in an eastern Himalayan catchment of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senzeba, K. T.; Rajkumari, S.; Bhadra, A.; Bandyopadhyay, A.

2016-04-01

Snowmelt run-off model (SRM) based on degree-day approach has been employed to evaluate the change in snow-cover depletion and corresponding streamflow under different projected climatic scenarios for an eastern Himalayan catchment in India. Nuranang catchment located at Tawang district of Arunachal Pradesh with an area of 52 km2 is selected for the present study with an elevation range of 3143-4946 m above mean sea level. Satellite images from October to June of the selected hydrological year 2006-2007 were procured from National Remote Sensing Centre, Hyderabad. Snow cover mapping is done using NDSI method. Based on long term meteorological data, temperature and precipitation data of selected hydrological year are normalized to represent present climatic condition. The projected temperature and precipitation data are downloaded from NCAR's GIS data portal for different emission scenarios (SRES), viz., A1B, A2, B1; and IPCC commitment (non-SRES) scenario for different future years (2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050). Projected temperature and precipitation data are obtained at desired location by spatially interpolating the gridded data and then by statistical downscaling using linear regression. Snow depletion curves for all projected scenarios are generated for the study area and compared with conventional depletion curve for present climatic condition. Changes in cumulative snowmelt depth for different future years are highest under A1B and lowest under IPCC commitment, whereas A2 and B1 values are in-between A1B and IPCC commitment. Percentage increase in streamflow for different future years follows almost the same trend as change in precipitation from present climate under all projected climatic scenarios. Hence, it was concluded that for small catchments having seasonal snow cover, the total streamflow under projected climatic scenarios in future years will be primarily governed by the change in precipitation and not by change in snowmelt depth. Advancing of depletion curves for different future years are highest under A1B and lowest under IPCC commitment. A2 and B1 values are in-between A1B and IPCC commitment.

Biological age as a useful index to predict seventeen-year survival and mortality in Koreans.

PubMed

Yoo, Jinho; Kim, Yangseok; Cho, Eo Rin; Jee, Sun Ha

2017-01-05

Many studies have been conducted to quantitatively estimate biological age using measurable biomarkers. Biological age should function as a valid proxy for aging, which is closely related with future work ability, frailty, physical fitness, and/or mortality. A validation study using cohort data found biological age to be a superior index for disease-related mortality than chronological age. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the validity of biological age as a useful index to predict a person's risk of death in the future. The data consists of 13,106 cases of death from 557,940 Koreans at 20-93 years old, surveyed from 1994 to 2011. Biological ages were computed using 15 biomarkers measured in general health check-ups using an algorithm based on principal component analysis. The influence of biological age on future mortality was analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression considering gender, chronological age, and event type. In the living subjects, the average biological age was almost the same as the average chronological age. In the deceased, the biological age was larger than the chronological age: largest increment of biological age over chronological age was observed when their baseline chronological age was within 50-59 years. The death rate significantly increased as biological age became larger than chronological age (linear trend test, p value < 0.0001). The largest hazard ratio was observed in subjects whose baseline chronological age was within 50-59 years when the cause was death from non-cancerous diseases (HR = 1.30, 95% confidence intervals = 1.26 - 1.34). The survival probability, over the 17 year term of the study, was significantly decreased in the people whose biological age was larger than chronological age (log rank test, p value < 0.001). Biological age could be used to predict future risk of death, and its effect size varied according to gender, chronological age, and cause of death.

Monitoring the Future: National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2005. Volume I. Secondary School Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Schulenberg, John E.

2006-01-01

In 2005, the Monitoring the Future study marked its 31st year of conducting national surveys of substance use among American young people. Beginning with the first survey of high school seniors in 1975, the study has provided the nation with a window through which to view the important, but largely hidden, problem behaviors of illicit drug use,…

A Review of Research on Metacognition in Science Education: Current and Future Directions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zohar, Anat; Barzilai, Sarit

2013-01-01

The goal of this study is to map the current state of research in the field of metacognition in science education, to identify key trends, and to discern areas and questions for future research. We conducted a systematic analysis of 178 studies published in peer-reviewed journals in the years 2000-2012 and indexed in the ERIC database. The…

Attitudes toward Business Ethics and Degree of Opinion Leadership of Future Managers In the United States, Finland, and China

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Comegys, Charles; Vaisanen, Jaani; Lupton, Robert A.; Rawlinson, David R.

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the attitudes towards business ethics of future managers in three countries: the United State, Finland, and China, and determine whether business ethics attitudes differed by the student's major, class year, GPA, gender, age, and the number of ethics and religious studies courses completed. Additionally the…

The Future Justification to Adopt Governance System at the Jordan Universities from the Perspective of Educational Experts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abu-Nair, Natheer Sihan

2015-01-01

The aim of the study was to reveal the future justification to adopt governance system at the Jordanian Universities from the perspective of educational experts. The study society was the academic staff in the field of education at Al-Balqa Applied University and Jordan University, at the first semester of the academic year 2013-2014. The study…

Choices and Chances: A Study of Pupils' Choices and Future Career Intentions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ryrie, A. C.; And Others

This book is the first result of a research project involving a study of the process by which young people move through secondary school into work or advanced education. The process of subject choice which takes place at the end of the second year of the Scottish secondary system and the students' intentions for the future, at this stage, are…

Owens Community College: A Case Study on the Effects of Politics, Economics, Social Factors, and Technological Factors on Future Educational Delivery Strategies, Space Needs, and Design

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Paskvan, Brian A.

2011-01-01

The purpose of this case study was to explore the influence of four factors--politics, economics, society, and technology--on educational delivery strategies, space needs, and design at Owens Community College. The future effects of these factors on the college were predicted four to six years from the time the study was conducted. The researcher…

Thirty Years of Music and Drama Education in the Madeira Island: Facing Future Challenges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mota, Graça; Abreu, Liliana

2014-01-01

In this paper we give an overview of relevant findings of a three years long case study that was carried out in the Madeira Island, Portugal. It addresses a thirty years old project in music and drama education in primary schools, which involves all children within the school curriculum, but also in extra-curriculum activities. The study used…

Connections Between Future Time Perspectives and Self-Regulated Learning for Mid-Year Engineering Students: A Multiple Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chasmar, Justine

This dissertation presents multiple studies with the purpose of understanding the connections between undergraduate engineering students' motivations, specifically students' Future Time Perspectives (FTPs) and Self-Regulated Learning (SRL). FTP refers to the views students hold about the future and how their perceptions of current tasks are affected by these views. SRL connects the behaviors, metacognition, and motivation of students in their learning. The goals of this research project were to 1) qualitatively describe and document engineering students' SRL strategies, 2) examine interactions between engineering students' FTPs and SRL strategy use, and 3) explore goal-setting as a bridge between FTP and SRL. In an exploratory qualitative study with mid-year industrial engineering students to examine the SRL strategies used before and after an SRL intervention, results showed that students intended to use more SRL strategies than they attempted. However, students self-reported using new SRL strategies from the intervention. Students in this population also completed a survey and a single interview about FTP and SRL. Results showed perceptions of instrumentality of coursework and skills as motivation for using SRL strategies, and a varied use of SRL strategies for students with different FTPs. Overall, three types of student FTP were seen: students with a single realistic view of the future, conflicting ideal and realistic future views, or open views of the future. A sequential explanatory mixed methods study was conducted with mid-year students from multiple engineering majors. First a cluster analysis of survey results of FTP items compared to FTP interview responses was used for participant selection. Then a multiple case study was conducted with data collected through surveys, journal entries, course performance, and two interviews. Results showed that students with a well-defined FTP self-regulated in the present based on their varied perceptions of instrumentality for their present tasks and evaluated and adapted their SRL strategies based on grades. Students with conflicting perceptions of the future used a high level of SRL in courses related to both conflicting future paths or related to their short-term goals. Students with open views had high SRL in most of their courses due to a high perception of instrumentality for their present courses. Implications for practice include use of a context-based SRL intervention to teach effective learning strategies, a shift of key general education courses to earlier in the engineering curriculum, and utilization of career-focused problems to support student FTP development and stress the importance of course content in future engineering careers.

Utilizing Multi-Ensemble of Downscaled CMIP5 GCMs to Investigate Trends and Spatial and Temporal Extent of Drought in Willamette Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadalipour, A.; Beal, B.; Moradkhani, H.

2015-12-01

Changing climate and potential future increases in global temperature are likely to have impacts on drought characteristics and hydrologic cylce. In this study, we analyze changes in temporal and spatial extent of meteorological and hydrological droughts in future, and their trends. Three statistically downscaled datasets from NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP), Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA), and Bias Correction and Spatial Disagregation (BCSD-PSU) each consisting of 10 CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCM) are utilized for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Further, Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) hydrologic model is used to simulate streamflow from GCM inputs and assess the hydrological drought characteristics. Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) are the two indexes used to investigate meteorological and hydrological drought, respectively. Study is done for Willamette Basin with a drainage area of 29,700 km2 accommodating more than 3 million inhabitants and 25 dams. We analyze our study for annual time scale as well as three future periods of near future (2010-2039), intermediate future (2040-2069), and far future (2070-2099). Large uncertainty is found from GCM predictions. Results reveal that meteorological drought events are expected to increase in near future. Severe to extreme drought with large areal coverage and several years of occurance is predicted around year 2030 with the likelihood of exceptional drought for both drought types. SPI is usually showing positive trends, while SDI indicates negative trends in most cases.

Dimensionality of coping and its relation to depression.

PubMed

Rohde, P; Lewinsohn, P M; Tilson, M; Seeley, J R

1990-03-01

The dimensionality of coping, as measured by 65 items from 3 commonly used instruments, and the relation of coping and stress to concurrent and future depression were studied in a community sample of 742 older (greater than or equal to 50 years old) adults. Measures of coping, stress, and depression were obtained at 2 time points over a 2-year period. Depression was assessed by symptom checklist and by diagnostic interview. Three coping factors--Cognitive Self-Control, Ineffective Escapism, and Solace Seeking--that had adequate psychometric properties and accounted for 25% of the total item variance were identified. Ineffective Escapism was associated with current depression and had a direct and interactive effect on future depression, exacerbating the negative impact of stress rather than acting as a buffer. Although Cognitive Self-Control was unrelated to either concurrent or future depression, Solace Seeking significantly buffered the effect of stress in predicting a future diagnosis of depression. Stress and initial depression level predicted both measures of future depression. Gender (being female) predicted the future diagnosis of depression but not the increase of depressive symptoms.

Projecting Electricity Demand in 2050

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hostick, Donna J.; Belzer, David B.; Hadley, Stanton W.

2014-07-01

This paper describes the development of end-use electricity projections and load curves that were developed for the Renewable Electricity (RE) Futures Study (hereafter RE Futures), which explored the prospect of higher percentages (30% - 90%) of total electricity generation that could be supplied by renewable sources in the United States. As input to RE Futures, two projections of electricity demand were produced representing reasonable upper and lower bounds of electricity demand out to 2050. The electric sector models used in RE Futures required underlying load profiles, so RE Futures also produced load profile data in two formats: 8760 hourly datamore » for the year 2050 for the GridView model, and in 2-year increments for 17 time slices as input to the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model. The process for developing demand projections and load profiles involved three steps: discussion regarding the scenario approach and general assumptions, literature reviews to determine readily available data, and development of the demand curves and load profiles.« less

Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7–11 years) Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players’ potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player’s future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7–11 years). Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05). Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items ‘aiming at target’, ‘throwing a ball’, and ‘eye-hand coordination’ in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%). Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment’s outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%). This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be included in a talent development programme. Future studies are needed to clarify the predictive value in a larger sample of youth competition players over a longer period in time. PMID:26863212

Validation of a multifactorial risk factor model used for predicting future caries risk with Nevada adolescents.

PubMed

Ditmyer, Marcia M; Dounis, Georgia; Howard, Katherine M; Mobley, Connie; Cappelli, David

2011-05-20

The objective of this study was to measure the validity and reliability of a multifactorial Risk Factor Model developed for use in predicting future caries risk in Nevada adolescents in a public health setting. This study examined retrospective data from an oral health surveillance initiative that screened over 51,000 students 13-18 years of age, attending public/private schools in Nevada across six academic years (2002/2003-2007/2008). The Risk Factor Model included ten demographic variables: exposure to fluoridation in the municipal water supply, environmental smoke exposure, race, age, locale (metropolitan vs. rural), tobacco use, Body Mass Index, insurance status, sex, and sealant application. Multiple regression was used in a previous study to establish which significantly contributed to caries risk. Follow-up logistic regression ascertained the weight of contribution and odds ratios of the ten variables. Researchers in this study computed sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PVP), negative predictive value (PVN), and prevalence across all six years of screening to assess the validity of the Risk Factor Model. Subjects' overall mean caries prevalence across all six years was 66%. Average sensitivity across all six years was 79%; average specificity was 81%; average PVP was 89% and average PVN was 67%. Overall, the Risk Factor Model provided a relatively constant, valid measure of caries that could be used in conjunction with a comprehensive risk assessment in population-based screenings by school nurses/nurse practitioners, health educators, and physicians to guide them in assessing potential future caries risk for use in prevention and referral practices.

A physical fitness programme during paid working hours - impact on health and work ability among women working in the social service sector: a three year follow up study.

PubMed

Vingård, Eva; Blomkvist, Vanja; Rosenblad, Andreas; Lindberg, Per; Voss, Margaretha; Alfredsson, Lars; Josephson, Malin

2009-01-01

In order to study the influence of a physical fitness programme on work ability among women employed in the social sector an intervention was offered to 205 women working in the social care sector in a municipality in Sweden. The reference group comprised 165 women from the same sector working in another municipality. All participants were employed and answered questionnaires at baseline and after 36 months. For women younger than 45 years, work ability and general health improved significantly while for women, 45 years or older, future work expectations improved. For women with less musculoskeletal pain, improvements were observed regarding future work expectations, as well as work ability and general health while for women with more musculoskeletal pain, improvements were observed for general health and future work expectations. Well-structured physical fitness programmes at the worksite can be useful in contributing to individual's experiences of improvements in their own capacity as well as increased health and wellbeing.

Water-balance simulations of runoff and reservoir storage for the Upper Helmand watershed and Kajakai Reservoir, central Afghanistan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vining, Kevin C.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

2007-01-01

A study was performed to provide information on monthly historical and hypothetical future runoff for the Upper Helmand watershed and reservoir storage in Kajakai Reservoir that could be used by Afghanistan authorities to make economic and demographic decisions concerning reservoir design and operation, reservoir sedimentation, and development along the Helmand River. Estimated reservoir volume at the current spillway elevation of 1,033.5 meters decreased by about 365 million cubic meters from 1968 to 2006 because of sedimentation. Water-balance simulations indicated a good fit between modeled and recorded monthly runoff at the two gaging stations in the watershed for water years 1956-79 and indicated an excellent fit between modeled and recorded monthly changes in Kajakai Reservoir storage for water years 1956-79. Future simulations, which included low starting reservoir water levels and a spillway raised to an elevation of 1,045 meters, indicated that the reservoir is likely to fill within 2 years. Although Kajakai Reservoir is likely to fill quickly, multiyear deficits may still occur. If future downstream irrigation demand doubles but future precipitation, temperature, and reservoir sedimentation remain similar to historical conditions, the reservoir would have more than a 50-percent chance of being full during April or May of a typical year. Future simulations with a 10-percent reduction in precipitation indicated that supply deficits would occur more than 1 in 4 years, on average, during August, September, or October. The reservoir would be full during April or May fewer than 1 in 2 years, on average, and multiyear supply deficits could occur. Increased sedimentation had little effect on reservoir levels during April through July, but the frequency of deficits increased substantially during September and October.

Future orientation, impulsivity, and problem behaviors: a longitudinal moderation model.

PubMed

Chen, Pan; Vazsonyi, Alexander T

2011-11-01

In the current study, based on a sample of 1,873 adolescents between 11.4 and 20.9 years of age from the first 3 waves of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, we investigated the longitudinal effects of future orientation on levels of and developmental changes in problem behaviors, while controlling for the effects by impulsivity; we also tested the moderating effects by future orientation on the impulsivity-problem behaviors link over time. Additionally, we examined future orientation operationalized by items measuring education, marriage, and life domains. Findings based on growth curve analyses provided evidence of longitudinal effects by education and life future orientation on both levels of and developmental changes in problem behaviors; the effect of marriage future orientation was not significant for either test. In addition, only life future orientation moderated the effect by impulsivity on levels of problem behaviors over time. More specifically, impulsivity had a weaker effect on levels of problem behaviors over time for adolescents who reported higher levels of life future orientation.

Affective forecasting bias in preschool children.

PubMed

Gautam, Shalini; Bulley, Adam; von Hippel, William; Suddendorf, Thomas

2017-07-01

Adults are capable of predicting their emotional reactions to possible future events. Nevertheless, they systematically overestimate the intensity of their future emotional reactions relative to how they feel when these events actually occur. The developmental origin of this "intensity bias" has not yet been examined. Two studies were conducted to test the intensity bias in preschool children. In the first study, 5-year-olds (N=30) predicted how they would feel if they won or lost various games. Comparisons with subsequent self-reported feelings indicated that participants overestimated how sad they would feel to lose the games but did not overestimate their happiness from winning. The second study replicated this effect in another sample of 5-year-olds (n=34) and also found evidence of an intensity bias in 4-year-olds (n=30). These findings provide the first evidence of a negative intensity bias in affective forecasting among young children. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Univariate time series modeling and an application to future claims amount in SOCSO's invalidity pension scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chek, Mohd Zaki Awang; Ahmad, Abu Bakar; Ridzwan, Ahmad Nur Azam Ahmad; Jelas, Imran Md.; Jamal, Nur Faezah; Ismail, Isma Liana; Zulkifli, Faiz; Noor, Syamsul Ikram Mohd

2012-09-01

The main objective of this study is to forecast the future claims amount of Invalidity Pension Scheme (IPS). All data were derived from SOCSO annual reports from year 1972 - 2010. These claims consist of all claims amount from 7 benefits offered by SOCSO such as Invalidity Pension, Invalidity Grant, Survivors Pension, Constant Attendance Allowance, Rehabilitation, Funeral and Education. Prediction of future claims of Invalidity Pension Scheme will be made using Univariate Forecasting Models to predict the future claims among workforce in Malaysia.

N+3 Small Commercial Efficient and Quiet Transportation for Year 2030-2035

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DAngelo, Martin M.; Gallman, John; Johnson, Vicki; Garcia, Elena; Tai, Jimmy; Young, Russell

2010-01-01

This study develops a future scenario that enables convenient point-to-point commercial air travel via a large network of community airports and a new class of small airliners. A network demand and capacity study identifies current and future air travel demands and the capacity of this new network to satisfy these demands. A current technology small commercial airliner is defined to meet the needs of the new network, as a baseline for evaluating the improvement brought about by advanced technologies. Impact of this new mode of travel on the infrastructure and surrounding communities of the small airports in this new N+3 network are also evaluated. Year 2030-2035 small commercial airliner technologies are identified and a trade study conducted to evaluate and select those with the greatest potential for enhancing future air travel and the study metrics. The selected advanced air vehicle concept is assessed against the baseline aircraft, and an advanced, but conventional aircraft, and the study metrics. The key technologies of the selected advanced air vehicle are identified, their impact quantified, and risk assessments and roadmaps defined.

Determining the impacts of climate change and catchment development on future water availability in Tasmania, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Post, David

2010-05-01

In a water-scarce country such as Australia, detailed, accurate and reliable assessments of current and future water availability are essential in order to adequately manage the limited water resource. This presentation describes a recently completed study which provided an assessment of current water availability in Tasmania, Australia, and also determined how this water availability would be impacted by climate change and proposed catchment development by the year 2030. The Tasmania Sustainable Yields Project (http://www.csiro.au/partnerships/TasSY.html) assessed current water availability through the application of rainfall-runoff models, river models, and recharge and groundwater models. These were calibrated to streamflow records and parameterised using estimates of current groundwater and surface water extractions and use. Having derived a credible estimate of current water availability, the impacts of future climate change on water availability were determined through deriving changes in rainfall and potential evapotranspiration from 15 IPCC AR4 global climate models. These changes in rainfall were then dynamically downscaled using the CSIRO-CCAM model over the relatively small study area (50,000 square km). A future climate sequence was derived by modifying the historical 84-year climate sequence based on these changes in rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. This future climate sequence was then run through the rainfall-runoff, river, recharge and groundwater models to give an estimate of water availability under future climate. To estimate the impacts of future catchment development on water availability, the models were modified and re-run to reflect projected increases in development. Specifically, outputs from the rainfall-runoff and recharge models were reduced over areas of projected future plantation forestry. Conversely, groundwater recharge was increased over areas of new irrigated agriculture and new extractions of water for irrigation were implemented in the groundwater and river models. Results indicate that historical average water availability across the project area was 21,815 GL/year. Of this, 636 GL/year of surface water and 38 GL/year of groundwater are currently extracted for use. By 2030, rainfall is projected to decrease by an average of 3% over the project area. This decrease in rainfall and concurrent increase in potential evapotranspiration leads to a decrease in water availability of 5% by 2030. As a result of lower streamflows, under current cease-to-take rules, currently licensed extractions are projected to decrease by 3% (19 GL/year). This however is offset by an additional 120 GL/year of extractions for proposed new irrigated agriculture. These new extractions, along with the increase in commercial forest plantations lead to a reduction in total surface water of 1% in addition to the 5% reduction due to climate change. Results from this study are being used by the Tasmanian and Australian governments to guide the development of a sustainable irrigated agriculture industry in Tasmania. In part, this is necessary to offset the loss of irrigated agriculture from the southern Murray-Darling Basin where climate change induced reductions in rainfall are projected to be far worse.

Exploring possible selves in a first-year physics foundation class: Engaging students by establishing relevance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, Dawn; Roberts, Lynne; Creagh, Christine

2016-06-01

Students often complain that they cannot see the relevance of what they are being taught in foundation physics classes. While revising and adjusting the curriculum and teaching are important, this study suggests it might also be useful to help students view their learning in relation to their future career aspirations. This paper reports on a study conducted with first-year students enrolled in a compulsory foundation physics unit with a history of low pass rates. Working within a "possible selves" framework, activities were designed to help students position their learning in relation to possible future lives and careers. Two cohorts of students (N =93 ) engaged in an intensive workshop comprising multiple activities relating to self and career. Self-reflection worksheets were analyzed using content analysis. The results indicate that students experience immediate benefits from these activities through self-reflection on the current self, future possible professional selves, and the role of current studies in narrowing the gap between the two.

The software product assurance metrics study: JPL's software systems quality and productivity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bush, Marilyn W.

1989-01-01

The findings are reported of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL)/Software Product Assurance (SPA) Metrics Study, conducted as part of a larger JPL effort to improve software quality and productivity. Until recently, no comprehensive data had been assembled on how JPL manages and develops software-intensive systems. The first objective was to collect data on software development from as many projects and for as many years as possible. Results from five projects are discussed. These results reflect 15 years of JPL software development, representing over 100 data points (systems and subsystems), over a third of a billion dollars, over four million lines of code and 28,000 person months. Analysis of this data provides a benchmark for gauging the effectiveness of past, present and future software development work. In addition, the study is meant to encourage projects to record existing metrics data and to gather future data. The SPA long term goal is to integrate the collection of historical data and ongoing project data with future project estimations.

Upward Transfer in STEM Fields of Study: A New Conceptual Framework and Survey Instrument for Institutional Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Xueli

2016-01-01

This chapter describes a new conceptual framework that informs research on factors influencing transfer in STEM fields of study from 2-year to 4-year institutions, presents a new survey instrument based on the framework, and offers directions for future research in this area.

Quercus pollen season dynamics in the Iberian peninsula: response to meteorological parameters and possible consequences of climate change.

PubMed

Garcia-Mozo, Herminia; Galan, Carmen; Jato, Victoria; Belmonte, Jordina; de la Guardia, Consuelo; Fernandez, Delia; Gutierrez, Montserrat; Aira, M; Roure, Joan; Ruiz, Luis; Trigo, Mar; Dominguez-Vilches, Eugenio

2006-01-01

The main characteristics of the Quercus pollination season were studied in 14 different localities of the Iberian Peninsula from 1992-2004. Results show that Quercus flowering season has tended to start earlier in recent years, probably due to the increased temperatures in the pre-flowering period, detected at study sites over the second half of the 20th century. A Growing Degree Days forecasting model was used, together with future meteorological data forecast using the Regional Climate Model developed by the Hadley Meteorological Centre, in order to determine the expected advance in the start of Quercus pollination in future years. At each study site, airborne pollen curves presented a similar pattern in all study years, with different peaks over the season attributable in many cases to the presence of several species. High pollen concentrations were recorded, particularly at Mediterranean sites. This study also proposes forecasting models to predict both daily pollen values and annual pollen emission. All models were externally validated using data for 2001 and 2004, with acceptable results. Finally, the impact of the highly-likely climate change on Iberian Quercus pollen concentration values was studied by applying RCM meteorological data for different future years, 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2099. Results indicate that under a doubled CO(2) scenario at the end of the 21st century Quercus pollination season could start on average one month earlier and airborne pollen concentrations will increase by 50 % with respect to current levels, with higher values in Mediterranean inland areas.

Future intensification of hydro-meteorological extremes: downscaling using the weather research and forecasting model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Samra, R.; Bou-Zeid, E.; Bangalath, H. K.; Stenchikov, G.; El-Fadel, M.

2017-12-01

A set of ten downscaling simulations at high spatial resolution (3 km horizontally) were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to generate future climate projections of annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation changes over the Eastern Mediterranean (with a focus on Lebanon). The model was driven with the High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM), running over the whole globe at a resolution of 25 km, under the conditions of two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) (4.5 and 8.5). Each downscaling simulation spanned one year. Two past years (2003 and 2008), also forced by HiRAM without data assimilation, were simulated to evaluate the model's ability to capture the cold and wet (2003) and hot and dry (2008) extremes. The downscaled data were in the range of recent observed climatic variability, and therefore corrected for the cold bias of HiRAM. Eight future years were then selected based on an anomaly score that relies on the mean annual temperature and accumulated precipitation to identify the worst year per decade from a water resources perspective. One hot and dry year per decade, from 2011 to 2050, and per scenario was simulated and compared to the historic 2008 reference. The results indicate that hot and dry future extreme years will be exacerbated and the study area might be exposed to a significant decrease in annual precipitation (rain and snow), reaching up to 30% relative to the current extreme conditions.

Adolescents' Religiousness and Substance Use Are Linked via Afterlife Beliefs and Future Orientation.

PubMed

Holmes, Christopher J; Kim-Spoon, Jungmeen

2017-10-01

Although religiousness has been identified as a protective factor against adolescent substance use, processes through which these effects may operate are unclear. The current longitudinal study examined sequential mediation of afterlife beliefs and future orientation in the relation between adolescent religiousness and cigarette, alcohol, and marijuana use. Participants included 131 adolescents (mean age at Time 1 = 12 years) at three time points with approximately two year time intervals. Structural equation modeling indicated that higher religiousness at Time 1 was associated with higher afterlife beliefs at Time 2. Higher afterlife beliefs at Time 2 were associated with higher future orientation at Time 2, which in turn was associated with lower use of cigarettes, alcohol, and marijuana at Time 3. Our findings highlight the roles of afterlife beliefs and future orientation in explaining the beneficial effects of religiousness against adolescent substance use.

Faculty Perspectives in Saudi Arabia Pertaining to Attributes of Successful Universities and Future Learning Environments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kutbi, Ibrahim; Hashim, Khairuddin

2017-01-01

Universities face the challenge of being relevant. This study investigates respondents' perspectives pertaining to attributes of successful universities and future learning environments. Data were collected using a specially designed survey during the 2016 academic year. The sample size was 518 King Abdulaziz University (KAU) academics. The…

Psychosocial Risk Factors for Future Adolescent Suicide Attempts.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lewinsohn, Peter M.; And Others

1994-01-01

Examined psychosocial risk factors for attempting suicide in 1,508 high school students, 26 of whom attempted suicide during year following entry into study. Strongest predictors of future suicide attempt were history of past attempt, current suicidal ideation and depression, recent attempt by friend, low self-esteem, and having been born to…

Making Decisions about Now and Later: Development of Future-Oriented Self-Control

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garon, Nancy M.; Longard, Julie; Bryson, Susan E.; Moore, Chris

2012-01-01

This study explored factors underlying preschoolers' ability to make future-oriented choices. In a delay-of-gratification choice task, quantity and visibility of the reward was systematically varied. Participants included 90 typically developing children aged 2-4 years. Children made more choices to delay gratification as the quantity of the…

Social Learning Theory: A Multicultural Study of Influences on Ethical Behavior

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hanna, Richard C.; Crittenden, Victoria L.; Crittenden, William F.

2013-01-01

We propose Social Learning Theory as a theoretical foundation for understanding the ethical standards of future business leaders. Using data drawn from students from 115 four-year undergraduate institutions in 36 different countries, the relationships among role models, capitalism, and laws were examined. The data suggest that future business…

Evaluation of Future Blogs. Final Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haines, Ben; Straw, Suzanne

2008-01-01

Future Blogs was developed through collaboration between the Royal Society of Chemistry and The Brightside Trust. It is an innovative e-mentoring scheme that links pupils studying chemistry with mentors from universities or industry and is based on the Bright Journals e-mentoring programme (an e-mentoring scheme targeted at 14-18 year olds…

Gender and Diversity in Organizations: Past, Present, and Future Directions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murrell, Audrey J.; James, Erika Hayes

2001-01-01

Introduces a special issue on how the nature of organizations has changed in recent years and implications of these changes for the future. Discusses key issues that have been studied on gender and diversity in organizations (discrimination, affirmative action, barriers to career advancement, and sexual harassment). Notes strategies for enhancing…

Resources for the Future. Annual Report 1970.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Resources for the Future, Inc., Washington, DC.

Presented is the Annual Report for Resources For The Future, Inc. (RFF) for the year ending September 30, 1970. This organization is dedicated to advancing the development, conservation, and use of natural resources and the improvement of the quality of the environment through programs of research and education. Most of their studies are in the…

Mapping out past and future minds: The perceived trajectory of rationality versus emotionality over time.

PubMed

O'Brien, Ed

2015-06-01

Who do we see when envisioning our "past self" and "future self"? Extant research finds a motivation to perceive improvement over time, such that past selves are seen as worse versions, and future selves as better versions, of current selves. However, the broader components comprising "worse" or "better" beyond domain-specific achievement (e.g., "Last year I failed at dieting, but next year I'll succeed") are less well understood. Are there more general qualities ascribed to the person we recall versus imagine being? Six studies suggest so, extending the 2-dimensional mind perception framework to the self: Past selves seem to possess highly emotional but not very rational minds, whereas future selves seem to possess highly rational but not very emotional minds (Studies 1a, 1b, 1c). Consistent with motivated improvement, this asymmetry does not emerge in evaluating others and applies uniquely to self-judgment (Study 2). Thus, our pervasive belief in changing for the "better" specifically means becoming more rational types of people. This observation has asymmetric consequences. Participants who brought to mind future selves sought intellectual enrichment (Study 3) and performed better on a self-control task (Study 4); however, participants who brought to mind past selves sought emotional enrichment and performed better on the same task when allegedly measuring enjoyment. These findings build a bridge between mind perception and intertemporal dynamics, raising novel implications for the present. Thinking about the future may not uniformly "improve" decisions and behaviors; rather, it mostly facilitates rational-related pursuits, whereas thinking about the past may enhance feeling-related experiences. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Monitoring the Future: National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2004. Volume I: Secondary School Students, 2004

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Schulenberg, John E.

2005-01-01

In 2004 the Monitoring the Future study marked its 30th year of conducting national surveys of substance use among American young people. Beginning with the first survey of high school seniors in 1975, the study has provided the nation with a window through which to view the important, but largely hidden, problem behaviors of illicit drug use,…

Assessment of knowledge of melanoma risk factors, prevention, and detection principles in Texas teenagers.

PubMed

Lucci, A; Citro, H W; Wilson, L

2001-05-15

The incidence of melanoma has increased in the past 10 years more rapidly than any other cancer. Exposure to intense solar radiation in youth significantly increases the lifetime risk of developing melanoma. We postulate that teenagers have little awareness of melanoma prevention or detection principles. The purpose of this study was to assess the knowledge of teenagers about melanoma and to identify which age groups are most receptive to altering their sun exposure behaviors. Two hundred and ten examinations testing general knowledge of sun exposure and melanoma were completed and returned by junior high and high school students ages 12 to 18 in Dallas and Houston, Texas. All students completing and returning the examination were provided with the correct answers to the test and a detailed explanation of each of the test items as part of an educational exercise. A second questionnaire was then administered to determine the effect of the educational exercise on future sun exposure practices. Students were divided into two age groups (12 to 15 and >or=16 years old) for comparison of scores on the knowledge examination and responses to behavioral items. Comparison of response rates between age groups was performed using chi(2) analysis. The return rate was 100%, with 109 students age 12-15 years, and 101 students >or=16 years. Seventy-six percent of all respondents sunbathed outdoors, and 18% had used a tanning bed in the past 6 months. Thirty-three percent of students admitted to at least three blistering sunburns in the past. The average score on the knowledge assessment examination was 65% correct for students >or=16 years old and 54% correct for those 12-15 years old. Students 12 to 15 years old were significantly more likely to indicate they planned to change future behaviors regarding performance of skin self-examinations and limiting sun exposure as compared to the older students. A significant number of teenagers have already enhanced their risk for future melanoma by suffering severe sunburns. Students younger than 16 years of age were significantly more likely to indicate they planned to change future behaviors after receiving information about melanoma. The data from this pilot study support education aimed at younger age groups to most effectively achieve risk reduction and prevent future melanomas. Copyright 2001 Academic Press.

The Effect of a Learner Autonomy Training on the Study Habits of the First-Year ELT Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Merç, Ali

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study is to investigate the possible effects of a learner autonomy training on the study habits of first-year university students as future EFL teachers. To this end, a questionnaire was used as the research instrument to elicit the study habits of the students. The questionnaire was administered to 122 students enrolled in a…

The effect of future time perspective on delay discounting is mediated by the gray matter volume of vmPFC.

PubMed

Guo, Yiqun; Chen, Zhiyi; Feng, Tingyong

2017-07-28

Although several previous studies have shown that individuals' attitude towards time could affect their intertemporal preference, little is known about the neural basis of the relation between time perspective (TP) and delay discounting. In the present study, we quantified the gray matter (GM) cortical volume using voxel-based morphometry (VBM) methods to investigate the effect of TP on delay discounting (DD) across two independent samples. For group 1 (102 healthy college students; 46 male; 20.40 ± 1.87 years), behavioral results showed that only Future TP was a significant predictor of DD, and higher scores on Future TP were related to lower discounting rates. Whole-brain analysis revealed that steeper discounting correlated with greater GM volume in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) and ventral part of posterior cingulate cortex (vPCC). Also, GM volume of a cluster in the vmPFC was correlated with Future TP. Interestingly, there was an overlapping region in vmPFC that was correlated with both DD and Future TP. Region-of-interest analysis further indicated that the overlapping region of vmPFC played a partially mediating role in the relation between Future TP and DD in the other independent dataset (Group 2, 36 healthy college students; 14 male; 20.18±1.80 years). Taken together, our results provide a new perspective from neural basis for explaining the relation between DD and future TP. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Future-year ozone prediction for the United States using updated models and inputs.

PubMed

Collet, Susan; Kidokoro, Toru; Karamchandani, Prakash; Shah, Tejas; Jung, Jaegun

2017-08-01

The relationship between emission reductions and changes in ozone can be studied using photochemical grid models. These models are updated with new information as it becomes available. The primary objective of this study was to update the previous Collet et al. studies by using the most up-to-date (at the time the study was done) modeling emission tools, inventories, and meteorology available to conduct ozone source attribution and sensitivity studies. Results show future-year, 2030, design values for 8-hr ozone concentrations were lower than base-year values, 2011. The ozone source attribution results for selected cities showed that boundary conditions were the dominant contributors to ozone concentrations at the western U.S. locations, and were important for many of the eastern U.S. Point sources were generally more important in the eastern United States than in the western United States. The contributions of on-road mobile emissions were less than 5 ppb at a majority of the cities selected for analysis. The higher-order decoupled direct method (HDDM) results showed that in most of the locations selected for analysis, NOx emission reductions were more effective than VOC emission reductions in reducing ozone levels. The source attribution results from this study provide useful information on the important source categories and provide some initial guidance on future emission reduction strategies. The relationship between emission reductions and changes in ozone can be studied using photochemical grid models, which are updated with new available information. This study was to update the previous Collet et al. studies by using the most current, at the time the study was done, models and inventory to conduct ozone source attribution and sensitivity studies. The source attribution results from this study provide useful information on the important source categories and provide some initial guidance on future emission reduction strategies.

Past speculations of the future: a review of the methods used for forecasting emerging health technologies.

PubMed

Doos, Lucy; Packer, Claire; Ward, Derek; Simpson, Sue; Stevens, Andrew

2016-03-10

Forecasting can support rational decision-making around the introduction and use of emerging health technologies and prevent investment in technologies that have limited long-term potential. However, forecasting methods need to be credible. We performed a systematic search to identify the methods used in forecasting studies to predict future health technologies within a 3-20-year timeframe. Identification and retrospective assessment of such methods potentially offer a route to more reliable prediction. Systematic search of the literature to identify studies reported on methods of forecasting in healthcare. People are not needed in this study. The authors searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsychINFO and grey literature sources, and included articles published in English that reported their methods and a list of identified technologies. Studies reporting methods used to predict future health technologies within a 3-20-year timeframe with an identified list of individual healthcare technologies. Commercially sponsored reviews, long-term futurology studies (with over 20-year timeframes) and speculative editorials were excluded. 15 studies met our inclusion criteria. Our results showed that the majority of studies (13/15) consulted experts either alone or in combination with other methods such as literature searching. Only 2 studies used more complex forecasting tools such as scenario building. The methodological fundamentals of formal 3-20-year prediction are consistent but vary in details. Further research needs to be conducted to ascertain if the predictions made were accurate and whether accuracy varies by the methods used or by the types of technologies identified. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Characterization of children's decision making: sensitivity to punishment frequency, not task complexity.

PubMed

Crone, Eveline A; Bunge, Silvia A; Latenstein, Heleen; van der Molen, Maurits W

2005-06-01

On a gambling task that models real-life decision making, children between ages 7 and 12 perform like patients with bilateral lesions of the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC), opting for choices that yield high immediate gains in spite of higher future losses (Crone & Van der Molen, 2004). The current study set out to characterize developmental changes in decision making by varying task complexity and punishment frequency. Three age groups (7-9 years, 10-12 years, 13-15 years) performed two versions of a computerized variant of the original Iowa gambling task. Task complexity was manipulated by varying the number of choices participants could make. Punishment frequency was manipulated by varying the frequency of delayed punishment. Results showed a developmental increase in the sensitivity to future consequences, which was present only when the punishment was presented infrequently. These results could not be explained by differential sensitivity to task complexity, hypersensitivity to reward, or failure to switch response set after receiving punishment. There was a general pattern of boys outperforming girls by making more advantageous choices over the course of the task. In conclusion, 7-12-year-old children--like VMPFC patients--appear myopic about the future except when the potential for future punishment is high.

Swedish medical students' expectations of their future life

PubMed Central

Andersson, Jenny; Johansson, Eva E.; Verdonk, Petra; Lagro-Janssen, Antoine; Hamberg, Katarina

2011-01-01

Objectives: To investigate future life expectations among male and female medical students in their first and final year. Methods The study was cross-sectional and conducted at a Swedish medical school. Out of 600 invited students, 507 (85%) answered an open-ended question about their future life, 298 (59%) first-year students and 209 (41%) last-year students. Women constituted 60% of the respondents. A mixed model design was applied; qualitative content analysis was utilized to create statistically comparable themes and categories. Results Students’ written answers were coded, categorized and clustered into four themes: “Work”, “Family”, “Leisure” and “Quality of personal life”. Almost all students included aspects of work in their answers. Female students were more detailed than male ones in their family concerns. Almost a third of all students reflected on a future work-life balance, but considerations regarding quality of personal life and leisure were more common among last-year students. Conclusions Today’s medical students expect more of life than work, especially those standing on the doorstep of working life. They intend to balance work not only with a family but also with leisure activities. Our results reflect work attitudes that challenge the health care system for more adaptive working conditions. We suggest that discussions about work-life balance should be included in medical curricula.

Forecasting future prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Syria.

PubMed

Al Ali, Radwan; Mzayek, Fawaz; Rastam, Samer; M Fouad, Fouad; O'Flaherty, Martin; Capewell, Simon; Maziak, Wasim

2013-05-25

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is increasingly becoming a major public health problem worldwide. Estimating the future burden of diabetes is instrumental to guide the public health response to the epidemic. This study aims to project the prevalence of T2DM among adults in Syria over the period 2003-2022 by applying a modelling approach to the country's own data. Future prevalence of T2DM in Syria was estimated among adults aged 25 years and older for the period 2003-2022 using the IMPACT Diabetes Model (a discrete-state Markov model). According to our model, the prevalence of T2DM in Syria is projected to double in the period between 2003 and 2022 (from 10% to 21%). The projected increase in T2DM prevalence is higher in men (148%) than in women (93%). The increase in prevalence of T2DM is expected to be most marked in people younger than 55 years especially the 25-34 years age group. The future projections of T2DM in Syria put it amongst countries with the highest levels of T2DM worldwide. It is estimated that by 2022 approximately a fifth of the Syrian population aged 25 years and older will have T2DM.

Analyzing Future Flooding under Climate Change Scenario using CMIP5 Streamflow Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parajuli, Ranjan; Nyaupane, Narayan; Kalra, Ajay

2017-12-01

Flooding is a severe and costlier natural hazard. The effect of climate change has intensified the scenario in recent years. Flood prevention practice along with a proper understanding of flooding event can mitigate the risk of such hazard. The floodplain mapping is one of the technique to quantify the severity of the flooding. Carson City, which is one of the agricultural areas in the desert of Nevada has experienced peak flood in the recent year. The underlying probability distribution for the area, latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) streamflow data of Carson River were analyzed for 27 different statistical distributions. The best-fitted distribution underlying was used to forecast the 100yr flood (design flood). The data from 1950-2099 derived from 31 model and total 97 projections were used to predict the future streamflow. Delta change method is adopted to quantify the amount of future (2050-2099) flood. To determine the extent of flooding 3 scenarios (i) historic design flood, (ii) 500yr flood and (iii) future 100yr flood were routed on an HEC-RAS model, prepared using available terrain data. Some of the climate projection shows an extreme increase in future design flood. This study suggests an approach to quantify the future flood and floodplain using climate model projections. The study would provide helpful information to the facility manager, design engineer, and stakeholders.

Alternative Measures of Self-Rated Health for Predicting Mortality Among Older People: Is Past or Future Orientation More Important?

PubMed

Ferraro, Kenneth F; Wilkinson, Lindsay R

2015-10-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the prognostic validity of alternative measures of health ratings, including those that tap temporal reflections, on adult mortality. The study uses a national sample of 1,266 Americans 50-74 years old in 1995, with vital status tracked through 2005, to compare the effect of 3 types of health ratings on mortality: conventional indicator of self-rated health (SRH), age comparison form of SRH, and health ratings that incorporate temporal dimensions. Logistic regression was used to estimate the odds of mortality associated with alternative health ratings while adjusting for health conditions, lifestyle factors, and status characteristics and resources. Self-rated health was a consistent predictor of mortality, but the respondent's expected health rating-10 years in the future-was an independent predictor. Future health expectations were more important than past (recalled change) in predicting mortality risk: People with more negative expectations of future health were less likely to survive. The findings reveal the importance of future time perspective for older people and suggest that it is more useful to query older people about their future health expectations than about how their health has changed. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The future of hazardous chemical safety in China: Opportunities, problems, challenges and tasks.

PubMed

Wang, Bing; Wu, Chao; Reniers, Genserik; Huang, Lang; Kang, Liangguo; Zhang, Laobing

2018-06-20

China is a major country producing and using hazardous chemicals. Unfortunately, the hazardous chemical industry is still one of the most high-risk industries in China. In recent years, especially after two devastating hazardous chemical accidents, namely "Qingdao 11.2 Crude Oil Leaking and Explosion Accident" and "Tianjin Port 8.12 Fire and Explosion Accident" which occurred in 2013 and 2015 respectively, China has attached great importance to hazardous chemical safety. The period between 2016 and 2017 is a crucial period for the future direction of hazardous chemical safety in China because China released a series of important government documents (such as 'Thirteenth Five-Year (2016-2020) Plan for Hazardous Chemical Safety' and 'Comprehensive Plan for Hazardous Chemical Safety Management (December 2016-November 2019)') to promote hazardous chemical safety in the future. What is the future development of China's hazardous chemical safety? To answer this question, this paper attempts to briefly analyze and introduce the opportunities, problems, challenges and tasks of the future of safety with hazardous chemical industrial activities in China, according to the current situation of hazardous chemical safety in China and using the latest government documents and studies. Obviously, this study can provide useful evidence and suggestions for the future of safety management in the hazardous chemical industry both within China and in other countries. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cold-related mortality vs heat-related mortality in a changing climate: A case study in Vilnius (Lithuania).

PubMed

Martinez, Gerardo Sanchez; Diaz, Julio; Hooyberghs, Hans; Lauwaet, Dirk; De Ridder, Koen; Linares, Cristina; Carmona, Rocio; Ortiz, Cristina; Kendrovski, Vladimir; Adamonyte, Dovile

2018-06-21

Direct health effects of extreme temperatures are a significant environmental health problem in Lithuania, and could worsen further under climate change. This paper attempts to describe the change in environmental temperature conditions that the urban population of Vilnius could experience under climate change, and the effects such change could have on excess heat-related and cold-related mortality in two future periods within the 21st century. We modelled the urban climate of Vilnius for the summer and winter seasons during a sample period (2009-2015) and projected summertime and wintertime daily temperatures for two prospective periods, one in the near (2030-2045) and one in the far future (2085-2100), under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. We then analysed the historical relationship between temperature and mortality for the period 2009-2015, and estimated the projected mortality in the near future and far future periods under a changing climate and population, assuming alternatively no acclimatisation and acclimatisation to heat and cold based on a constant-percentile threshold temperature. During the sample period 2009-2015 in summertime we observed an increase in daily mortality from a maximum daily temperature of 30 °C (the 96th percentile of the series), with an average of around 7 deaths per year. Under a no acclimatisation scenario, annual average heat-related mortality would rise to 24 deaths/year (95% CI: 8.4-38.4) in the near future and to 46 deaths/year (95% CI: 16.4-74.4) in the far future. Under a heat acclimatisation scenario, mortality would not increase significantly in the near or in the far future. Regarding wintertime cold-related mortality in the sample period 2009-2015, we observed increased mortality on days on which the minimum daily temperature fell below - 12 °C (the 7th percentile of the series), with an average of around 10 deaths a year. Keeping the threshold temperature constant, annual average cold-related mortality would decrease markedly in the near future, to 5 deaths/year (95% CI: 0.8-7.9) and even more in the far future, down to 0.44 deaths/year (95% C: 0.1-0.8). Assuming a "middle ground" between the acclimatisation and non-acclimatisation scenarios, the decrease in cold-related mortality will not compensate the increase in heat-related mortality. Thermal extremes, both heat and cold, constitute a serious public health threat in Vilnius, and in a changing climate the decrease in mortality attributable to cold will not compensate for the increase in mortality attributable to heat. Study results reinforce the notion that public health prevention against thermal extremes should be designed as a dynamic, adaptive process from the inception. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Aerobic capacity and future cardiovascular risk in Indian community from a low-income area in Cauca, Colombia.

PubMed

Ramírez-Vélez, Robinson; Correa-Bautista, Jorge Enrique; Ramos-Sepúlveda, Jeison Alexander; Piñeros-Álvarez, Carlos Andrés; Giraldo, Lorena Isabel; Izquierdo, Mikel; García-Hermoso, Antonio; Rodríguez-Rodríguez, Fernando; Cristi-Montero, Carlos

2017-03-07

Several studies indicates that children's aerobic capacity levels are predictors of the future risk of non-communicable diseases. Therefore, the aim of this study was to establish the proportion of subjects whose aerobic capacity is indicative of future cardiovascular risk in Indian-Nasa community from a low-income area in Cauca, Colombia. We performed a cross-sectional analysis of morphological component (height, weight, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, triceps skinfold, subscapular skinfold, and body fat percent [BF%]), and the cardiorespiratory component (course-navette 20 m, shuttle run test and estimation of maximal oxygen consumption by indirect VO 2 max) from 576 participants (319 boys and 257 girls) aged 10 to 17.9 years, using the standardized FUPRECOL test battery. We showed that the boys performed better than the girls in cardiorespiratory fitness. The proportion of subjects with an aerobic capacity indicative of future cardiovascular risk was 7.3%. By sex, 3.8% of boys and 11.7% of girls (X 2 p = 0.001) displayed an unhealthy aerobic capacity in this study. The findings of this study that provide the first data on aerobic capacity health for Colombian Nasa Indian children and adolescents aged 10-17.9 years. Although the known loss of aerobic capacity is a serious consequence of the future risk of non-communicable diseases, the deterioration of physical fitness deserves increased attention among indigenous population.

Parents’ Participation in a Work-Based Anti-Poverty Program Can Enhance Their Children's Future Orientation: Understanding Pathways of Influence

PubMed Central

Purtell, Kelly M.; McLoyd, Vonnie C.

2012-01-01

Planning and preparing for life after high school is a central developmental task of American adolescents, and may be even more critical for low-income youth who are less likely to attend a four year college. This study investigates factors that led to the effects of the New Hope Project, a work-based, anti-poverty program directed at parents on youths’ career-related thoughts and planning. The New Hope project was implemented in Milwaukee, WI, during the mid-1990s. 745 families participated (52% male children; 56% African American; 30% Latino, and 15% White non-Hispanic) and half were randomly selected to receive New Hope benefits, which included earnings supplements, job search assistance, and child and health care subsidies for three years. Importantly, effects on youths’ future orientation were found eight years after the program began (five years after benefits ended). The present study investigates what factors sustained these positive impacts over time. Results indicate that parental perceptions of reading performance mediate the effects of New Hope on youths’ cynicism about work. Additionally, parental perceptions of reading performance and youths’ educational expectations mediate the effects of New Hope on boys’ pessimism about future employment. These findings highlight the importance of youths’ educational development to their career-related thoughts and planning. PMID:22878938

Parents' participation in a work-based anti-poverty program can enhance their children's future orientation: understanding pathways of influence.

PubMed

Purtell, Kelly M; McLoyd, Vonnie C

2013-06-01

Planning and preparing for life after high school is a central developmental task of American adolescents, and may be even more critical for low-income youth who are less likely to attend a four year college. This study investigates factors that led to the effects of the New Hope Project, a work-based, anti-poverty program directed at parents on youths' career-related thoughts and planning. The New Hope project was implemented in Milwaukee, WI, during the mid-1990s. 745 families participated (52% male children; 56% African American; 30% Latino, and 15% White non-Hispanic) and half were randomly selected to receive New Hope benefits, which included earnings supplements, job search assistance, and child and health care subsidies for 3 years. Importantly, effects on youths' future orientation were found 8 years after the program began (5 years after benefits ended). The present study investigates what factors sustained these positive impacts over time. Results indicate that parental perceptions of reading performance mediate the effects of New Hope on youths' cynicism about work. Additionally, parental perceptions of reading performance and youths' educational expectations mediate the effects of New Hope on boys' pessimism about future employment. These findings highlight the importance of youths' educational development to their career-related thoughts and planning.

Back to the Future: Past and Future Era-Based Schematic Support and Associative Memory for Prices in Younger and Older Adults

PubMed Central

Castel, Alan D.; McGillivray, Shannon; Worden, Kendell M.

2014-01-01

Older adults typically display various associative memory deficits, but these deficits can be reduced when conditions allow for the use of prior knowledge or schematic support. To determine how era-specific schematic support and future simulation might influence associative memory, we examined how younger and older adults remember prices from the past as well as the future. Younger and older adults were asked to imagine the past or future, and then studied items and prices from approximately 40 years ago (market value prices from the 1970s) or 40 years in the future. In Experiment 1, all items were common items (e.g., movie ticket, coffee) and the associated prices reflected the era in question, whereas in Experiment 2, some item-price pairs were specific to the time period (e.g., typewriter, robot maid), to test different degrees of schematic support. After studying the pairs, participants were shown each item and asked to recall the associated price. In both experiments, older adults showed similar performance as younger adults in the past condition for the common items, whereas age-related differences were greater in the future condition and for the era-specific items. The findings suggest that in order for schematic support to be effective, recent (and not simply remote) experience is needed in order to enhance memory. Thus, whereas older adults can benefit from “turning back the clock,” younger adults better remember future-oriented information compared with older adults, outlining age-related similarities and differences in associative memory and the efficient use of past and future-based schematic support. PMID:24128073

Back to the future: past and future era-based schematic support and associative memory for prices in younger and older adults.

PubMed

Castel, Alan D; McGillivray, Shannon; Worden, Kendell M

2013-12-01

Older adults typically display various associative memory deficits, but these deficits can be reduced when conditions allow for the use of prior knowledge or schematic support. To determine how era-specific schematic support and future simulation might influence associative memory, we examined how younger and older adults remember prices from the past as well as the future. Younger and older adults were asked to imagine the past or future, and then studied items and prices from approximately 40 years ago (market value prices from the 1970s) or 40 years in the future. In Experiment 1, all items were common items (e.g., movie ticket, coffee) and the associated prices reflected the era in question, whereas in Experiment 2, some item-price pairs were specific to the time period (e.g., typewriter, robot maid), to test different degrees of schematic support. After studying the pairs, participants were shown each item and asked to recall the associated price. In both experiments, older adults showed similar performance as younger adults in the past condition for the common items, whereas age-related differences were greater in the future condition and for the era-specific items. The findings suggest that in order for schematic support to be effective, recent (and not simply remote) experience is needed in order to enhance memory. Thus, whereas older adults can benefit from "turning back the clock," younger adults better remember future-oriented information compared with older adults, outlining age-related similarities and differences in associative memory and the efficient use of past and future-based schematic support. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Modeling the Effects of Drought Events on Forest Ecosystem Functioning Historically and Under Scenarios of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, J.; Hanan, E. J.; Kolden, C.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Tague, C.; Liu, M.; Adam, J. C.

2017-12-01

Drought events have been increasing across the western United States in recent years. Many studies have shown that, in the context of climate change, droughts will continue to be stronger, more frequent, and prolonged in the future. However, the response of forest ecosystems to droughts, particularly multi-year droughts, is not well understood. The objectives of this study are to examine how drought events of varying characteristics (e.g. intensity, duration, frequency, etc.) have affected the functioning of forest ecosystems historically, and how changing drought characteristics (including multi-year droughts) may affect forest functioning in a future climate. We utilize the Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys) to simulate impacts of both historical droughts and scenarios of future droughts on forest ecosystems. RHESSys is a spatially-distributed and process-based model that captures the interactions between coupled biogeochemical and hydrologic cycles at catchment scales. Here our case study is the Trail Creek catchment of the Big Wood River basin in Idaho, the Northwestern USA. For historical simulations, we use the gridded meteorological data of 1979 to 2016; for future climate scenarios, we utilize downscaled data from GCMs that have been demonstrated to capture drought events in the Northwest of the USA. From these climate projections, we identify various types of drought in intensity and duration, including multi-year drought events. We evaluate the following responses of ecosystems to these events: 1) evapotranspiration and streamflow; 2) gross primary productivity; 3) the post-drought recovery of plant biomass; and 4) the forest functioning and recovery after multi-year droughts. This research is part of an integration project to examine the roles of drought, insect outbreak, and forest management activities on wildfire activity and its impacts. This project will provide improved information for forest managers and communities in the wild urban interface to adapt to climate change.

Risk factors of CHD in children--a retrospective view of the Westland study.

PubMed Central

de Hass, J. H.

1978-01-01

Routine medical examinations have been carried out in children for many years, but more recently paediatricians have broadened their outlook to consider not only the health of the child until the age of 14 or 16 years but also his future health as an adult. Screening for risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) in children raises problems of normal values by sex and age, especially for serum cholesterol and blood pressure. The results of a study of CHD risk factors in school children in Westland, Holland, are described. Although further information is needed it is concluded that in future paediatricians should accept a greater responsibility for preventive cardiology. PMID:652683

Predicting Family Poverty and Other Disadvantaged Conditions for Child Rearing from Childhood Aggression and Social Withdrawal: A 30-Year Longitudinal Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Serbin, Lisa A.; Temcheff, Caroline E.; Cooperman, Jessica M.; Stack, Dale M.; Ledingham, Jane; Schwartzman, Alex E.

2011-01-01

This 30-year longitudinal study examined pathways from problematic childhood behavior patterns to future disadvantaged conditions for family environment and child rearing in adulthood. Participants were mothers (n = 328) and fathers (n = 222) with lower income backgrounds participating in the ongoing Concordia Longitudinal Risk Project. Structural…

Two Fineless Years, A History, Analysis, and Evaluation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Meyer, Robert S.

The purpose of this study is to summarize and evaluate the Alameda County, California library system's two years of operation under a no-fines policy and a centralized overdues facility, leading to recommendations for future action. The objectives of the study are to: (1) present an historical summary of the changes in the library policies and…

Introducing Engineering in Elementary Education: A 5-Year Study of Teachers and Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Diefes-Dux, Heidi A.

2015-01-01

Engineering, when integrated into K-12 education, may offer a number of potential student learning and future success benefits. In a 5-year study, four cohorts of elementary teachers of grades 2 to 4 in a single US school district were provided with teacher professional development with engineering education. Teachers were prepared to teach…

2013 Schroth faces of the future symposium to highlight early career professionals in Mycology

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The 2013 Schroth Faces of the Future symposium was created to recognize early career professionals (those within 10 years of graduation) who represent the future in their field via innovative research. For this year, future faces in mycology research were recognized. Drs. Jason Slot, Erica Goss, Jam...

Aviation Safety Concerns for the Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Brian E.; Roelen, Alfred L. C.; den Hertog, Rudi

2016-01-01

The Future Aviation Safety Team (FAST) is a multidisciplinary international group of aviation professionals that was established to identify possible future aviation safety hazards. The principle was adopted that future hazards are undesirable consequences of changes, and a primary activity of FAST became identification and prioritization of possible future changes affecting aviation. Since 2004, FAST has been maintaining a catalogue of "Areas of Change" (AoC) that could potentially influence aviation safety. The horizon for such changes is between 5 to 20 years. In this context, changes must be understood as broadly as possible. An AoC is a description of the change, not an identification of the hazards that result from the change. An ex-post analysis of the AoCs identified in 2004 demonstrates that changes catalogued many years previous were directly implicated in the majority of fatal aviation accidents over the past ten years. This paper presents an overview of the current content of the AoC catalogue and a subsequent discussion of aviation safety concerns related to these possible changes. Interactions among these future changes may weaken critical functions that must be maintained to ensure safe operations. Safety assessments that do not appreciate or reflect the consequences of significant interaction complexity will not be fully informative and can lead to inappropriate trade-offs and increases in other risks. The FAST strongly encourages a system-wide approach to safety risk assessment across the global aviation system, not just within the domain for which future technologies or operational concepts are being considered. The FAST advocates the use of the "Areas of Change" concept, considering that several possible future phenomena may interact with a technology or operational concept under study producing unanticipated hazards.

Age differences in future orientation and delay discounting.

PubMed

Steinberg, Laurence; Graham, Sandra; O'Brien, Lia; Woolard, Jennifer; Cauffman, Elizabeth; Banich, Marie

2009-01-01

Age differences in future orientation are examined in a sample of 935 individuals between 10 and 30 years using a delay discounting task as well as a new self-report measure. Younger adolescents consistently demonstrate a weaker orientation to the future than do individuals aged 16 and older, as reflected in their greater willingness to accept a smaller reward delivered sooner than a larger one that is delayed, and in their characterizations of themselves as less concerned about the future and less likely to anticipate the consequences of their decisions. Planning ahead, in contrast, continues to develop into young adulthood. Future studies should distinguish between future orientation and impulse control, which may have different neural underpinnings and follow different developmental timetables.

National Facilities study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1994-01-01

This study provides a set of recommendations for improving the effectiveness of our nation's aeronautics and space facilities. The study plan considers current and future government and commercial needs as well as DOD and NASA mission requirements through the year 2023. It addresses shortfalls in existing capabilities, new facility requirements, upgrades, consolidations, and phase-out of existing facilities. If the recommendations are implemented, they will provide world-class capability where it is vital to our country's needs and make us more efficient in meeting future needs.

Current and future technology in radial and axial gas turbines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rohlik, H. E.

1983-01-01

Design approaches and flow analysis techniques currently employed by aircraft engine manufacturers are assessed. Studies were performed to define the characteristics of aircraft and engines for civil missions of the 1990's and beyond. These studies, coupled with experience in recent years, identified the critical technologies needed to meet long range goals in fuel economy and other operating costs. Study results, recent and current research and development programs, and an estimate of future design and analytic capabilities are discussed.

Building Colleges for the Future: Pedagogical and Ideological Spaces

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Rob

2017-01-01

This article focuses on the "Building Colleges for the Future" (BCF) initiative (2008) which saw a wave of new-build Further Education (FE) colleges spring up across England in the final years of the New Labour government. It draws on qualitative data from a research study focusing on four new-build colleges in the West Midlands of…

Enhancing Student Motivation: A Longitudinal Intervention Study Based on Future Time Perspective Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schuitema, Jaap; Peetsma, Thea; van der Veen, Ineke

2014-01-01

The authors investigated the effects of an intervention developed to enhance student motivation in the first years of secondary education. The intervention, based on future time perspective (FTP) theory, has been found to be effective in prevocational secondary education (T. T. D. Peetsma & I. Van der Veen, 2008, 2009). The authors extend the…

Young People's Life-Skills and the Future. Research Report Series.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Powney, Janet; Lowden, Kevin; Hall, Stuart

A study investigated what Scottish and English young people consider important life skills, how they believe they develop them, and how necessary they see them to their future lives. More than 200 16-21-year-olds examined photographs of events related to basic life tasks, family, close relationships, work or school and leisure activities and then…

Differences in Agency? How Adolescents from 18 Countries Perceive and Cope with Their Futures

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Seiffge-Krenke, Inge; Persike, Malte; Chau, Cecilia; Hendry, Leo B.; Kloepp, Marion; Terzini-Hollar, Michelle; Tam, Vicky; Naranjo, Carmen Rodriguez; Herrera, Dora; Menna, Palma; Rohail, Iffat; Veisson, Marika; Hoareau, Elsa; Luwe, Merja; Loncaric, Darko; Han, Hyeyoun; Regusch, Ludmilla

2012-01-01

This study investigated how N = 5,126 adolescents (mean age of 15 years) from 18 countries perceive and cope with future- and school-related stress. The adolescents completed the Problem Questionnaire (PQ), which assesses stress, and the Coping Across Situations Questionnaire (CASQ), which assesses three coping styles (reflection/support-seeking,…

Future Time Perspective and Motivational Categories in Argentinean Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vazquez, Stella Maris; Rapetti, Maria Virginia

2006-01-01

This study is based on a sample of 332 Argentinean teenagers in their last year of secondary school. In the context of the relational theory of motivation, an attempt is made to determine the motivational categories best predicting Future Time Perspective (FTP) extension. The influence of the sex, locus of control, social class, and school ethos…

Materialism, Stress and Health Behaviors among Future Educators

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brouskeli, Vasiliki; Loumakou, Maria

2014-01-01

In this study we investigated materialism among future educators and its relationship with stress and a number of health behaviors. Participants were 228 students (Mean = 20.64 years of age, S.D = 2.571) of the Department of Education Sciences in Early Childhood of the University of Thrace, Greece. The instrument consisted of a short form of the…

Public Policy and Planning for Nurse Education and Practice.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Feldbaum, Eleanor G.; Levitt, Morris J.

This report focuses on nursing educational and practice issues that government officials may have to address in the near future. The report provides statistical information on nurses, compares statistics for white and black nurses, and recommends policies for the future. Data was gathered for the report during a three-year study of 5,175…

Onward to Outcomes in the School of the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Millea, Susan

This paper discusses the results of a study that investigated the effectiveness of a comprehensive school-based service program in Texas. The "School for the Future" project was a 5-year demonstration project in 4 Texas cities that was designed to develop and coordinate health and social services though targeted schools in low income,…

Middle School Girls' Envisioned Future in Computing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Friend, Michelle

2015-01-01

Experience is necessary but not sufficient to cause girls to envision a future career in computing. This study investigated the experiences and attitudes of girls who had taken three years of mandatory computer science classes in an all-girls setting in middle school, measured at the end of eighth grade. The one third of participants who were open…

Developing the International Business Curriculum: Results and Implications of a Delphi Study on the Futures of Teaching and Learning in International Business

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zettinig, Peter; Vincze, Zsuzsanna

2008-01-01

This article presents the results of a Delphi study concerning the futures of teaching and learning in International Business (IB), a topic that has been receiving a lot of discussion during recent years. Based on our findings we identify two dimensions which may be at the core and instrumental for developing the value proposition of IB. The first…

The National Guard: A Future Homeland Security Paradigm?

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-05-14

Hernandez was an 18-year-old high school student who was taking the family’s flock of sheep out to graze. As he always did, Ezequiel took along an old...Dreiling Army National Guard School of Advanced Military Studies United States Army Command and General Staff College Fort Leavenworth, Kansas AY 01-02...ii SCHOOL OF ADVANCED MILITARY STUDIES MONOGRAPH APPROVAL [Major Elizabeth E. Dreiling] Title of Monograph: The National Guard (NG): A Future

The response of tropical rainforests to drought-lessons from recent research and future prospects.

PubMed

Bonal, Damien; Burban, Benoit; Stahl, Clément; Wagner, Fabien; Hérault, Bruno

We review the recent findings on the influence of drought on tree mortality, growth or ecosystem functioning in tropical rainforests. Drought plays a major role in shaping tropical rainforests and the response mechanisms are highly diverse and complex. The numerous gaps identified here require the international scientific community to combine efforts in order to conduct comprehensive studies in tropical rainforests on the three continents. These results are essential to simulate the future of these ecosystems under diverse climate scenarios and to predict the future of the global earth carbon balance. Tropical rainforest ecosystems are characterized by high annual rainfall. Nevertheless, rainfall regularly fluctuates during the year and seasonal soil droughts do occur. Over the past decades, a number of extreme droughts have hit tropical rainforests, not only in Amazonia but also in Asia and Africa. The influence of drought events on tree mortality and growth or on ecosystem functioning (carbon and water fluxes) in tropical rainforest ecosystems has been studied intensively, but the response mechanisms are complex. Herein, we review the recent findings related to the response of tropical forest ecosystems to seasonal and extreme droughts and the current knowledge about the future of these ecosystems. This review emphasizes the progress made over recent years and the importance of the studies conducted under extreme drought conditions or in through-fall exclusion experiments in understanding the response of these ecosystems. It also points to the great diversity and complexity of the response of tropical rainforest ecosystems to drought. The numerous gaps identified here require the international scientific community to combine efforts in order to conduct comprehensive studies in tropical forest regions. These results are essential to simulate the future of these ecosystems under diverse climate scenarios and to predict the future of the global earth carbon balance.

Evaluation and Development of Digital Competence in Future Primary School Teachers at the University of Murcia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gutiérrez Porlán, Isabel; Serrano Sánchez, José Luis

2016-01-01

This paper presents the findings of a study carried out in the academic year 2014-2015 at the faculty of Education of the University of Murcia with first year degree students in Primary Education studying Research and ICT. The study started with the application of the DIGCOM questionnaire to analyze the digital competences of 134 students. The…

Is diabetes color-blind? Growth of prevalence of diagnosed diabetes in children through 2030.

PubMed

Adepoju, Omolola E; Bolin, Jane N; Booth, Eric A; Zhao, Hongwei; Lin, Szu-Hsuan; Phillips, Charles D; Ohsfeldt, Robert L

2015-06-01

Diabetes knows no age and affects millions of individuals. Preventing diabetes in children is increasingly becoming a major health policy concern and focus. The objective of this study is to project the number of children, aged 0-17 years, with diagnosed diabetes in the United States through 2030, accounting for changing demography, and diabetes and obesity prevalence rates. The study team combined historic diabetes and obesity prevalence data with US child population estimates and projections. A times-series regression model was used to forecast future diabetes prevalence and to account for the relationship between the forecasted diabetes prevalence and the lagged prevalence of childhood obesity. Overall, the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes is projected to increase 67% from 0.22% in 2010 to 0.36% in 2030. Lagged obesity prevalence in Hispanic boys and non-Hispanic black girls was significantly associated with increasing future diabetes prevalence. The study results showed that a 1% increase in obesity prevalence among Hispanic boys from the previous year was significantly associated with a 0.005% increase in future prevalence of diagnosed diabetes in children (P ≤ 0.01). Likewise, a unit increase in obesity prevalence among non-Hispanic black girls was associated with a 0.003% increase in future diabetes prevalence (P < 0.05). Obesity rates for other race/ethnicity combinations were not associated with increasing future diabetes prevalence. To mitigate the continued threat posed by diabetes, serious discussions need to focus on the pediatric population, particularly non-Hispanic black girls and Hispanic boys whose obesity trends show the strongest associations with future diabetes prevalence in children.

THE COOPERATIVE INTERNATIONAL NEUROMUSCULAR RESEARCH GROUP DUCHENNE NATURAL HISTORY STUDY—A LONGITUDINAL INVESTIGATION IN THE ERA OF GLUCOCORTICOID THERAPY: DESIGN OF PROTOCOL AND THE METHODS USED

PubMed Central

McDonald, Craig M.; Henricson, Erik K.; Abresch, R. Ted; Han, Jay J.; Escolar, Diana M.; Florence, Julaine M.; Duong, Tina; Arrieta, Adrienne; Clemens, Paula R.; Hoffman, Eric P.; Cnaan, Avital

2014-01-01

Contemporary natural history data in Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) is needed to assess care recommendations and aid in planning future trials. Methods The Cooperative International Neuromuscular Research Group (CINRG) DMD Natural History Study (DMD-NHS) enrolled 340 individuals, aged 2–28 years, with DMD in a longitudinal, observational study at 20 centers. Assessments obtained every 3 months for 1 year, at 18 months, and annually thereafter included: clinical history; anthropometrics; goniometry; manual muscle testing; quantitative muscle strength; timed function tests; pulmonary function; and patient-reported outcomes/ health-related quality-of-life instruments. Results Glucocorticoid (GC) use at baseline was 62% present, 14% past, and 24% GC-naive. In those ≥6 years of age, 16% lost ambulation over the first 12 months (mean age 10.8 years). Conclusions Detailed information on the study methodology of the CINRG DMD-NHS lays the groundwork for future analyses of prospective longitudinal natural history data. These data will assist investigators in designing clinical trials of novel therapeutics. PMID:23677550

Study of the commonality of space vehicle applications to future national needs (unclassified portion)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

A midterm progress report was presented on the study of commonality of space vehicle applications to future national needs. Two of the four objectives in the entire study were discussed. The first one involved deriving functional requirements for space systems based on future needs and environments for the military and civilian communities. Possible space initiatives based on extrapolations of technology were compiled without regard as to need but only with respect to feasibility, given the advanced state of technology which could exist through the year 2,000. The second one involved matching the initiatives against the requirements, developing a methodology to match and select the initiatives with each of the separate plans based on the future environments, and deriving common features of the military and civilian support requirements for these programs.

Projecting diabetes prevalence among Mexicans aged 50 years and older: the Future Elderly Model-Mexico (FEM-Mexico)

PubMed Central

Tysinger, Bryan; Goldman, Dana P; Wong, Rebeca

2017-01-01

Objective Diabetes has been growing as a major health problem and a significant burden on the population and on health systems of developing countries like Mexico that are also ageing fast. The goal of the study was to estimate the future prevalence of diabetes among Mexico’s older adults to assess the current and future health and economic burden of diabetes. Design A simulation study using longitudinal data from three waves (2001, 2003 and 2012) of the Mexican Health and Aging Study and adapting the Future Elderly Model to simulate four scenarios of hypothetical interventions that would reduce diabetes incidence and to project the future diabetes prevalence rates among populations 50 years and older. Participants Data from 14 662 participants with information on self-reported diabetes, demographic characteristics, health and mortality. Outcome measures We obtained, for each scenario of diabetes incidence reduction, the following summary measures for the population aged 50 and older from 2012 to 2050: prevalence of diabetes, total population with diabetes, number of medical visits. Results In 2012, there were approximately 20.7 million persons aged 50 and older in Mexico; 19.3% had been diagnosed with diabetes and the 2001–2003 diabetes incidence was 4.3%. The no-intervention scenario shows that the prevalence of diabetes is projected to increase from 19.3% in 2012 to 34.0% in 2050. Under the 30% incidence reduction scenario, the prevalence of diabetes will be 28.6% in 2050. Comparing the no-intervention scenario with the 30% and 60% diabetes incidence reduction scenarios, we estimate a total of 816 320 and 1.6 million annual averted cases of diabetes, respectively, for the year 2020. Discussion Our study underscores the importance of diabetes as a disease by itself and also the potential healthcare demands and social burden of this disease and the need for policy interventions to reduce diabetes prevalence. PMID:29074514

Locally Downscaled and Spatially Customizable Climate Data for Historical and Future Periods for North America

PubMed Central

Wang, Tongli; Hamann, Andreas; Spittlehouse, Dave; Carroll, Carlos

2016-01-01

Large volumes of gridded climate data have become available in recent years including interpolated historical data from weather stations and future predictions from general circulation models. These datasets, however, are at various spatial resolutions that need to be converted to scales meaningful for applications such as climate change risk and impact assessments or sample-based ecological research. Extracting climate data for specific locations from large datasets is not a trivial task and typically requires advanced GIS and data management skills. In this study, we developed a software package, ClimateNA, that facilitates this task and provides a user-friendly interface suitable for resource managers and decision makers as well as scientists. The software locally downscales historical and future monthly climate data layers into scale-free point estimates of climate values for the entire North American continent. The software also calculates a large number of biologically relevant climate variables that are usually derived from daily weather data. ClimateNA covers 1) 104 years of historical data (1901–2014) in monthly, annual, decadal and 30-year time steps; 2) three paleoclimatic periods (Last Glacial Maximum, Mid Holocene and Last Millennium); 3) three future periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s); and 4) annual time-series of model projections for 2011–2100. Multiple general circulation models (GCMs) were included for both paleo and future periods, and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and 8.5) were chosen for future climate data. PMID:27275583

Locally Downscaled and Spatially Customizable Climate Data for Historical and Future Periods for North America.

PubMed

Wang, Tongli; Hamann, Andreas; Spittlehouse, Dave; Carroll, Carlos

2016-01-01

Large volumes of gridded climate data have become available in recent years including interpolated historical data from weather stations and future predictions from general circulation models. These datasets, however, are at various spatial resolutions that need to be converted to scales meaningful for applications such as climate change risk and impact assessments or sample-based ecological research. Extracting climate data for specific locations from large datasets is not a trivial task and typically requires advanced GIS and data management skills. In this study, we developed a software package, ClimateNA, that facilitates this task and provides a user-friendly interface suitable for resource managers and decision makers as well as scientists. The software locally downscales historical and future monthly climate data layers into scale-free point estimates of climate values for the entire North American continent. The software also calculates a large number of biologically relevant climate variables that are usually derived from daily weather data. ClimateNA covers 1) 104 years of historical data (1901-2014) in monthly, annual, decadal and 30-year time steps; 2) three paleoclimatic periods (Last Glacial Maximum, Mid Holocene and Last Millennium); 3) three future periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s); and 4) annual time-series of model projections for 2011-2100. Multiple general circulation models (GCMs) were included for both paleo and future periods, and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and 8.5) were chosen for future climate data.

Competition for land

PubMed Central

Smith, Pete; Gregory, Peter J.; van Vuuren, Detlef; Obersteiner, Michael; Havlík, Petr; Rounsevell, Mark; Woods, Jeremy; Stehfest, Elke; Bellarby, Jessica

2010-01-01

A key challenge for humanity is how a future global population of 9 billion can all be fed healthily and sustainably. Here, we review how competition for land is influenced by other drivers and pressures, examine land-use change over the past 20 years and consider future changes over the next 40 years. Competition for land, in itself, is not a driver affecting food and farming in the future, but is an emergent property of other drivers and pressures. Modelling studies suggest that future policy decisions in the agriculture, forestry, energy and conservation sectors could have profound effects, with different demands for land to supply multiple ecosystem services usually intensifying competition for land in the future. In addition to policies addressing agriculture and food production, further policies addressing the primary drivers of competition for land (population growth, dietary preference, protected areas, forest policy) could have significant impacts in reducing competition for land. Technologies for increasing per-area productivity of agricultural land will also be necessary. Key uncertainties in our projections of competition for land in the future relate predominantly to uncertainties in the drivers and pressures within the scenarios, in the models and data used in the projections and in the policy interventions assumed to affect the drivers and pressures in the future. PMID:20713395

Assessment of dental caries predictors in 6-year-old school children - results from 5-year retrospective cohort study

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background This was a retrospective cohort study undertaken to assess the rate and pattern of dental caries development in 6-year-old school children followed-up for a period of 5 years, and to identify baseline risk factors that were associated with 5 years caries experience in Malaysian children. Methods This 5-years retrospective cohort study comprised primary school children initially aged 6 years in 2004. Caries experience of each child was recorded annually using World Health Organization criteria. The rates of dental caries were recorded in prevalence and incidence density of carious lesions from baseline to final examination. Risk assessment was done to assess relative risk for caries after 5 years in children with baseline caries status. Simple and multiple logistic regression analysis were performed to identify significant independent risk factors for caries. Results The sample consisted of 1830 school children. All components of DMFT showed significant differences between baseline and final examination. Filled teeth (FT) component of the DMFT showed the greatest increases. Results revealed the initial baseline caries level in permanent dentition was a strong predictor for future caries after 5 years (RR=3.78, 95% CI=3.48-4.10, P<0.001). Logistic regression analysis showed significant association between caries occurrence and residence (urban/rural) (OR=1.80, P<0.001). However, it was not significantly associated with gender and ethnicity. The incidence density of caries, affected persons (IDp) observed from baseline and after 5 years was 5.80 persons/100 person-year of observation. The rate of new caries-affected tooth (IDt) in the period from baseline and after 5-years was 0.76 teeth/100 teeth-year of observation. Conclusion The majority of 12-year-old school children (70%) were caries-free and most of the caries were concentrated in only a small proportion (30%) of them. We found that the presence of caries in permanent teeth at the age of 6 years was a strong predictor of future caries development in this population. The strong evidence of early permanent teeth caries at six years old to predict future caries incidence at 12-year-olds, which could be obtained at almost no cost, questions the need for and cost-effectiveness of expensive technology-based commercial caries predictions kits. PMID:23158416

The Use of Oceanic Indices Variations Due to Climate Change to Predict Annual Discharge Variations in Northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berton, R.; Shaw, S. B.; Chandler, D. G.; Driscoll, C. T.

2014-12-01

Climatic change affects streamflow in watersheds with winter snowpack and an annual snowmelt hydrograph. In the northeastern US, changes in streamflow are driven by both the advanced timing of snowmelt and increasing summer precipitation. Projections of climate for the region in the 21st century is for warmer winters and wetter summers. Water planners need to understand future changes in flow metrics to determine if the current water resources are capable of fulfilling future demands or adapting to future changes in climate. The study of teleconnection patterns between oceanic indices variations and hydrologic variables may help improve the understanding of future water resources conditions in a watershed. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the correlation between oceanic indices and discharge variations in the Merrimack Watershed. The Merrimack Watershed is the fourth largest basin in New England which drains much of New Hampshire and northeastern portions of Massachusetts, USA. Variations in sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP) are defined by the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), respectively. We hypothesize that temporal changes in discharge are related to AMO and NAO variations since precipitation and discharge are highly correlated in the Merrimack. The Merrimack Watershed consists of undisturbed (reference) catchments and disturbed (developed) basins with long stream gauge records (> 100 years). Developed basins provide an opportunity to evaluate the impacts of river regulation and land development on teleconnection patterns as well as changing climate. Time series of AMO and NAO indices over the past 150 years along with Merrimack annual precipitation and discharge time series have shown a 1 to 2-year watershed hydrologic memory; higher correlation between Merrimack‎ annual precipitation and discharge with AMO and NAO are observed when a 1 to 2-year lag is given to AMO and NAO indices. For instance, the mean correlation of AMO with precipitation/discharge for a zero-year lag was 0.16/0.09 and increased to 0.26/0.23 for a 1-year lag. Our study provides an insight on the lagged hydrologic response of reference catchments and developed basins to variations in oceanic indices.

The role of different types of instrumentality in motivation, study strategies, and performance: know why you learn, so you'll know what you learn!

PubMed

Simons, Joke; Dewitte, Siegfried; Lens, Willy

2004-09-01

Two theories in the field of motivation and achievement, namely the future time perspective theory and goal theory, result in conflicting recommendations for enhancing students' motivation, because of their differential emphasis on the task at hand and on the future consequences of a task. We will present a framework consisting of four types of instrumentality that combines both perspectives. The implications of those different types for goal orientation, motivation, cognitive strategies, study habits and performance are investigated. Participants were a group of 184 first-year nurse students with ages ranging from 18 to 45 years. Questionnaires were administered that measured instrumentality, goal orientation, motivation, deep and surface level learning strategies, study habits, and a manipulation check. At the end of the year, exam scores were collected. The results showed that different types of instrumentality are related differently to the motivational, cognitive and achievement measures. Being internally regulated and perceiving the utility of the courses resulted both in a more adaptive goal orientation and higher intrinsic motivation, which led to the use of more adaptive cognitive strategies and to better study habits, which ultimately enhanced performance. Linking performance to extrinsic rewards and not seeing the utility of the course for the future yielded the opposite pattern. Type of instrumentality has indeed a differential influence on motivational, cognitive, and behavioural variables.

Assessment of extreme hydrological conditions in the Bothnian Bay, Baltic Sea, and the impact of the nuclear power plant "Hanhikivi-1" on the local thermal regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dvornikov, Anton Y.; Martyanov, Stanislav D.; Ryabchenko, Vladimir A.; Eremina, Tatjana R.; Isaev, Alexey V.; Sein, Dmitry V.

2017-04-01

The results of the study aimed to assess the influence of future nuclear power plant Hanhikivi-1 upon the local thermal conditions in the Bothnian Bay in the Baltic Sea are presented. A number of experiments with different numerical models were also carried out in order to estimate the extreme hydro-meteorological conditions in the area of the construction. The numerical experiments were fulfilled both with analytically specified external forcing and with real external forcing for 2 years: a cold year (2010) and a warm year (2014). The study has shown that the extreme values of sea level and water temperature and the characteristics of wind waves and sea ice in the vicinity of the future nuclear power plant can be significant and sometimes catastrophic. Permanent release of heat into the marine environment from an operating nuclear power plant will lead to a strong increase in temperature and the disappearance of ice cover within a 2 km vicinity of the station. These effects should be taken into account when assessing local climate changes in the future.

Mathematical Models for Immunology: Current State of the Art and Future Research Directions.

PubMed

Eftimie, Raluca; Gillard, Joseph J; Cantrell, Doreen A

2016-10-01

The advances in genetics and biochemistry that have taken place over the last 10 years led to significant advances in experimental and clinical immunology. In turn, this has led to the development of new mathematical models to investigate qualitatively and quantitatively various open questions in immunology. In this study we present a review of some research areas in mathematical immunology that evolved over the last 10 years. To this end, we take a step-by-step approach in discussing a range of models derived to study the dynamics of both the innate and immune responses at the molecular, cellular and tissue scales. To emphasise the use of mathematics in modelling in this area, we also review some of the mathematical tools used to investigate these models. Finally, we discuss some future trends in both experimental immunology and mathematical immunology for the upcoming years.

Future time perspective and health behaviors: temporal framing of self-regulatory processes in physical exercise and dietary behaviors.

PubMed

Gellert, Paul; Ziegelmann, Jochen P; Lippke, Sonia; Schwarzer, Ralf

2012-04-01

Limitations in perceived lifetime can undermine long-term goal striving. Planning is supposed to translate intentions into health behaviors and to operate as a compensatory strategy to overcome goal striving deficits associated with a limited time perspective. Two longitudinal studies were conducted examining the compensatory role of planning: an online survey on fruit and vegetable consumption (N = 909; 16-78 years; follow-up at 4 months) and a questionnaire study on physical exercise in older adults (N = 289; 60-95 years, over a half-year period). Intentions, planning, and behavior were measured in a behavior-specific, future time perspective in a generic manner. Planning mediated between intentions and both health behaviors. Time perspective operated as a moderator, indicating that in individuals with a more limited time perspective, a stronger effect of planning on health behaviors emerged. Planning as a self-regulatory strategy may compensate for a limited time perspective.

Own aging: future time perspectives and scenarios perceived by females employed in old age care.

PubMed

Fromholt, P; Larsen, P; Snell, H

1994-04-01

This study focuses on anticipations of own aging, and the process of adaptation to aging across the life span. Future time perspectives and aging scenarios were investigated in 276 Danish females employed in old age care (aged 22 to 63 years), by use of questionnaires. Age-related differences were found regarding how far ahead subjects indicated to plan their future, increasing from about two years in subjects in their twenties and stabilizing at about ten years in older subjects. Datings of events that first initiated thinking of one's own aging increased with the age of the subjects, and some age-related patterns in the content of recalled events were found. A developmental mechanism involving reinterpretation of essential elements of aging is suggested as an explanation for these findings. A preponderance of positive scenarios suggests that optimistic anticipations of own aging may coexist with exposure to negative aspects of aging due to working experiences with disabled old people.

The immediate and long-term effects of time perspective on Internet gaming disorder.

PubMed

Lukavská, Kateřina

2018-03-01

Backgrounds and aims This study focuses on the role of time perspective (TP) in Internet gaming disorder (IGD). An inventory-based study on 377 massive multiplayer online role playing game players was conducted, followed by a 3-year-follow-up in which 48 active players from the original sample participated. We proposed that TP factors (negative TP and future positive TP) will influence either the current presence of IGD symptoms or the further development of IGD over time. In other words, the effect of TP is stable. Finally, game usage patterns were analyzed in the sense of changes in playing time and IGD symptoms in gamers after 3 years. Methods To access the variables, two scales were administered through online inventory, the Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory-short, and Charlton and Danforths' Core Addiction Scale, both in 2012 (N = 377) and 2015 (N = 48). The amount of time that gamers usually spent playing were obtained through self-reports. Results The study's primary presumptions were confirmed. Both negative TP and future positive TP were confirmed as significant predictors of the presence of IGD symptoms, either immediately or in the following 3 years. Data on game usage showed a significant decrease in playing time and IGD symptoms between year 0 and year 3 of the study.

Cannabis use in adolescence and risk of future disability pension: a 39-year longitudinal cohort study.

PubMed

Danielsson, Anna-Karin; Agardh, Emilie; Hemmingsson, Tomas; Allebeck, Peter; Falkstedt, Daniel

2014-10-01

This study aimed at examining a possible association between cannabis use in adolescence and future disability pension (DP). DP can be granted to any person in Sweden aged 16-65 years if working capacity is judged to be permanently reduced due to long-standing illness or injury. Data were obtained from a longitudinal cohort study comprising 49,321 Swedish men born in 1949-1951 who were conscripted to compulsory military service aged 18-20 years. Data on DP was collected from national registers. Results showed that individuals who used cannabis in adolescence had considerably higher rates of disability pension throughout the follow-up until 59 years of age. In Cox proportional-hazards regression analyses, adjustment for covariates (social background, mental health, physical fitness, risky alcohol use, tobacco smoking and illicit drug use) attenuated the associations. However, when all covariates where entered simultaneously, about a 30% increased hazard ratio of DP from 40 to 59 years of age still remained in the group reporting cannabis use more than 50 times. This study shows that heavy cannabis use in late adolescence was associated with an increased relative risk of labor market exclusion through disability pension. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Analyzing Future Flooding under Climate Change Scenario using CMIP5 Streamflow Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyaupane, Narayan; Parajuli, Ranjan; Kalra, Ajay

2017-12-01

Flooding is the most severe and costlier natural hazard in US. The effect of climate change has intensified the scenario in recent years. Flood prevention practice along with proper understanding of flooding event can mitigate the risk of such hazard. The flood plain mapping is one of the technique to quantify the severity of the flooding. Carson City, which is one of the agricultural area in the desert of Nevada has experienced peak flood in recent year. The underlying probability distribution for the area, latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) streamflow data of Carson River were analyzed for 27 different statistical distributions. The best fitted distribution underlying was used to forecast the 100yr flood (design flood). The data from 1950-2099 derived from 31 model and total 97 projections were used to predict the future streamflow. Delta change method is adopted to quantify the amount of future (2050-2099) flood. To determine the extent of flooding 3 scenarios (i) historic design flood, (ii) 500yr flood and (iii) future 100yr flood were routed on a HEC-RAS model, prepared using available terrain data. Some of the climate projection shows extreme increase in future design flood. The future design flood could be more than the historic 500yr flood. At the same time, the extent of flooding could go beyond the historic flood of 0.2% annual probability. This study suggests an approach to quantify the future flood and floodplain using climate model projections. The study would provide helpful information to the facility manager, design engineer and stake holders.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bauer, Stephen J.

The elevation change data measured at the Bryan Mound Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) site over the last 16+ years has been studied and a model utilized to project elevation changes into the future. The subsidence rate at Bryan Mound is low in comparison with other Strategic Petroleum Reserve sites and has decreased with time due to the maintenance of higher operating pressures and the normal decrease in creep closure rate of caverns with time. However, the subsidence at the site is projected to continue. A model was developed to project subsidence values 20 years into the future; no subsidence relatedmore » issues are apparent from these projections.« less

76 FR 35452 - Proposed Collection; Comment Request; Healthy Communities Study: How Communities Shape Children's...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-17

... age range of children is 3-15 years upon entry into the study. The study examines quantitative and... scientific journals and will be used for the development of future research initiatives targeting childhood...

A Qualitative Study of Persistence and Performance: Factors in the Motivation of First Year Tertiary Education Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holden, Helen

2005-01-01

The dilemma of student motivation at regional university sites needs to be examined to expose peculiarities in regional areas that impact on the future sustainability of tertiary education programs in those areas. The focus of this phenomenographic study was the persistence and performance of 11 first year university students. Interviews with…

State of Rhode Island Department of Administration Office of Library and Information Services. Five-Year State Plan for the Fiscal Years 2008 to 2012

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rhode Island Office of Library and Information Services, 2008

2008-01-01

In preparation for its Five-Year Plan for the years 2008 through 2012, the Rhode Island Office of Library and Information Services has reviewed a variety of information resources, including studies, publications, surveys and stakeholder meetings, to assist in understanding the state, its people, its future and the potential role of libraries. This…

The effect of adolescents' sports clubs participation on self-reported mental and physical conditions and future expectations.

PubMed

Gísladóttir, Thórdís Lilja; Matthíasdóttir, Asrún; Kristjánsdóttir, Hafrún

2013-01-01

Sports clubs create conditions for people of all ages to pursue a healthy lifestyle through exercise in sports and attend to constructive pedagogical work which creates much value for society. This study investigates the relationship between adolescents' sports clubs participation and self-reported mental and physical conditions and future expectations. The participants were 10,987 pupils in the final three years of their compulsory education in Iceland (aged 14-16 years). The participants completed questionnaires administered to students in the classroom relating to health and behaviour. The results indicate that participation in sports clubs influences adolescents positively; adolescents who work hard at sport not only believe they are in better mental and physical condition, they also believe they can succeed in other areas such as their studies. Sports clubs promote positive influence on adolescents' mental and physical conditions and their future expectations toward work and happiness. It can be concluded that participation in organised sports clubs affects the participants in a positive way.

Are predictors of future suicide attempts and the transition from suicidal ideation to suicide attempts shared or distinct: a 12-month prospective study among patients with depressive disorders.

PubMed

Chan, Lai Fong; Shamsul, Azhar Shah; Maniam, Thambu

2014-12-30

Our study aimed to examine the interplay between clinical and social predictors of future suicide attempt and the transition from suicidal ideation to suicide attempt in depressive disorders. Sixty-six Malaysian inpatients with a depressive disorder were assessed at index admission and within 1 year for suicide attempt, suicidal ideation, depression severity, life event changes, treatment history and relevant clinical and socio-demographic factors. One-fifth of suicidal ideators transitioned to a future suicide attempt. All future attempters (12/66) had prior ideation and 83% of attempters had a prior attempt. The highest risk for transitioning from ideation to attempt was 5 months post-discharge. Single predictor models showed that previous psychiatric hospitalization and ideation severity were shared predictors of future attempt and ideation to attempt transition. Substance use disorders (especially alcohol) predicted future attempt and approached significance for the transition process. Low socio-economic status predicted the transition process while major personal injury/illness predicted future suicide attempt. Past suicide attempt, subjective depression severity and medication compliance predicted only future suicide attempt. The absence of prior suicide attempt did not eliminate the risk of future attempt. Given the limited sample, future larger studies on mechanisms underlying the interactions of such predictors are needed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Comparison of Preschoolers' Memory, Knowledge, and Anticipation of Events

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Quon, Elizabeth; Atance, Cristina M.

2010-01-01

This study examined the development of the episodic and semantic memory systems, with an emphasis on the emergence of the two aspects of the former: episodic memory (the ability to re-experience a past event) and episodic future thinking (the ability to pre-experience a future event). Three-, 4-, and 5-year olds were randomly assigned to one of…

Monitoring Million Trees LA: Tree performance during the early years and future benefits

Treesearch

E. Gregory McPherson

2014-01-01

Million Trees LA (MTLA) is one of several large-scale mayoral tree planting initiatives striving to create more livable cities through urban forestry. This study combined field sampling of tree survival and growth with numerical modeling of future benefits to assess performance of MTLA plantings. From 2006 to 2010 MTLA planted a diverse mix of 91,786 trees....

Securing Our Future. Proceedings of the Conference on Children--Our Future (Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, November 19-21, 1991).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chiam, Heng Keng, Ed.

These proceedings report the results of 10 years of ongoing research by the Malaysian Child Development Project to develop and implement measures to study the cognitive, language, and socioemotional development of Malaysian preschool children. Part 1 of the report contains opening speeches delivered by conference organizers and dignitaries. Part 2…

Anatomy of the academy: Dissecting the past, resecting the future

Treesearch

Daniel R. Williams

2000-01-01

Offered the opportunity to write about whatever topic moves me, I decided my millennial issue is to examine the place of leisure studies in higher education. Having recently left the academy after putting in 15 years at three different universities (most recently, the University of Illinois), affords me certain liberty to explore my thoughts on the future of the field...

Imaging the Future of Science Education: The Case for Making Futures Studies Explicit in Student Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lloyd, David; Wallace, John

2004-01-01

In the last 30 years or so, science educators in the Western world have come to recognise the importance of the social and cultural context in which learning occurs (Cobern, 1993, 1994; Hodson, 1993; Leach & Scott, 2003) and have, through such movements as science, technology, society and the environment (Pedretti, 1997; Solomon, 1991; Solomon…

Engineering Education and Practice in the United States: Foundations of Our Techno-Economic Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Academy of Sciences - National Research Council, Washington, DC.

The National Research Council's Committee on the Education and Utilization of the Engineer conducted a study aimed at achieving a comprehensive understanding of engineering in the United States and an assessment of its capacity to meet present and future needs. This document reports on the findings of the committee's work over a 2-year period. The…

Past and future changes in Canadian boreal wildfire activity.

PubMed

Girardin, Martin P; Mudelsee, Manfred

2008-03-01

Climate change in Canadian boreal forests is usually associated with increased drought severity and fire activity. However, future fire activity could well be within the range of values experienced during the preindustrial period. In this study, we contrast 21st century forecasts of fire occurrence (FireOcc, number of large forest fires per year) in the southern part of the Boreal Shield, Canada, with the historical range of the past 240 years statistically reconstructed from tree-ring width data. First, a historical relationship between drought indices and FireOcc is developed over the calibration period 1959-1998. Next, together with seven tree-ring based drought reconstructions covering the last 240 years and simulations from the CGCM3 and ECHAM4 global climate models, the calibration model is used to estimate past (prior to 1959) and future (post 1999) FireOcc. Last, time-dependent changes in mean FireOcc and in the occurrence rate of extreme fire years are evaluated with the aid of advanced methods of statistical time series analysis. Results suggest that the increase in precipitation projected toward the end of the 21st century will be insufficient to compensate for increasing temperatures and will be insufficient to maintain potential evapotranspiration at current levels. Limited moisture availability would cause FireOcc to increase as well. But will future FireOcc exceed its historical range? The results obtained from our approach suggest high probabilities of seeing future FireOcc reach the upper limit of the historical range. Predictions, which are essentially weighed on northwestern Ontario and eastern boreal Manitoba, indicate that, by 2061-2100, typical FireOcc could increase by more than 34% when compared with the past two centuries. Increases in fire activity as projected by this study could negatively affect the implementation in the next century of forest management inspired by historical or natural disturbance dynamics. This approach is indeed feasible only if current and future fire activities are sufficiently low compared with the preindustrial fire activity, so a substitution of fire by forest management could occur without elevating the overall frequency of disturbance. Conceivable management options will likely have to be directed toward minimizing the adverse impacts of the increasing fire activity.

Predicting Future Suicide Attempts Among Adolescent and Emerging Adult Psychiatric Emergency Patients

PubMed Central

Horwitz, Adam G.; Czyz, Ewa K.; King, Cheryl A.

2014-01-01

Objective The purpose of this study was to longitudinally examine specific characteristics of suicidal ideation in combination with histories of suicide attempts and non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) to best evaluate risk for a future attempt among high-risk adolescents and emerging adults. Method Participants in this retrospective medical record review study were 473 (53% female; 69% Caucasian) consecutive patients, ages 15–24 years (M = 19.4 years) who presented for psychiatric emergency (PE) services during a 9-month period. These patients’ medical records, including a clinician-administered Columbia-Suicide Severity Rating Scale, were coded at the index visit and at future visits occurring within the next 18 months. Logistic regression models were used to predict suicide attempts during this period. Results SES, suicidal ideation severity (i.e., intent, method), suicidal ideation intensity (i.e., frequency, controllability), a lifetime history of suicide attempt, and a lifetime history of NSSI were significant independent predictors of a future suicide attempt. Suicidal ideation added incremental validity to the prediction of future suicide attempts above and beyond the influence of a past suicide attempt, whereas a lifetime history of NSSI did not. Sex moderated the relationship between the duration of suicidal thoughts and future attempts (predictive for males, but not females). Conclusions Results suggest value in incorporating both past behaviors and current thoughts into suicide risk formulation. Furthermore, suicidal ideation duration warrants additional examination as a potential critical factor for screening assessments evaluating suicide risk among high-risk samples, particularly for males. PMID:24871489

Predicting Future Suicide Attempts among Depressed Suicide Ideators: A 10-year Longitudinal Study

PubMed Central

May, Alexis M.; Klonsky, E. David; Klein, Daniel N.

2012-01-01

Suicidal ideation and attempts are a major public health problem. Research has identified many risk factors for suicidality; however, most fail to identify which suicide ideators are at greatest risk of progressing to a suicide attempt. Thus, the present study identified predictors of future suicide attempts in a sample of psychiatric patients reporting suicidal ideation. The sample comprised 49 individuals who met full DSM-IV criteria for major depressive disorder and/or dysthymic disorder and reported suicidal ideation at baseline. Participants were followed for 10 years. Demographic, psychological, personality, and psychosocial risk factors were assessed using validated questionnaires and structured interviews. Phi coefficients and point-biserial correlations were used to identify prospective predictors of attempts, and logistic regressions were used to identify which variables predicted future attempts over and above past suicide attempts. Six significant predictors of future suicide attempts were identified – cluster A personality disorder, cluster B personality disorder, lifetime substance abuse, baseline anxiety disorder, poor maternal relationship, and poor social adjustment. Finally, exploratory logistic regressions were used to examine the unique contribution of each significant predictor controlling for the others. Co-morbid cluster B personality disorder emerged as the only robust, unique predictor of future suicide attempts among depressed suicide ideators. Future research should continue to identify variables that predict transition from suicidal thoughts to suicide attempts, as such work will enhance clinical assessment of suicide risk as well as theoretical models of suicide. PMID:22575331

Hurricanes and Typhoons: Past, Present, and Future edited by R. J. Murnane and K. -B. Liu

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yim, W. W.-S.

2005-04-01

Columbia University Press, New York; ISBN 0-231-12388-4; xii + 462 pp; 2004; $89.50. This is a topical book on tropical cyclones known more popularly as hurricanes in the Americas and typhoons in eastern Asia. The subject may appeal to academics and researchers as well as to the general public. The best way to predict the future variability of tropical cyclones is by examining their past record. Prehistoric records can be obtained from geological or archeological studies while historical records are provided by documentation and instrumentation. Of particular interest now are the changes in frequency and landfall pattern of tropical cyclones during El Niño years, La Niña years, and neutral years, extending back in time to cover the past 8,000 years for disaster planning.

The Observed Longitudinal Relationship between Future Orientation and Substance Use Among a Cohort of Youth with Serious Criminal Offenses.

PubMed

Brooks, Merrian; Miller, Elizabeth; Abebe, Kaleab; Mulvey, Edward

2018-03-06

Future orientation (FO), an essential construct in youth development, encompassing goals, expectations for life, and ability to plan for the future. This study uses a multidimensional measure of future orientation to assess the relationship between change in future orientation and change in substance use over time. Data were from the Pathways to Desistence study. Justice involved youth (n = 1,354), ages 14 to 18 at time of recruitment, completed interviews every six months for three years. Multiple measures were chosen a priori as elements of future orientation. After evaluating the psychometrics of a new measure for future orientation, we ran mixed effects cross-lagged panel models to assess the relationship between changes in future orientation and substance use (tobacco, marijuana, hard drugs, and alcohol). There was a significant bidirectional relationship between future orientation and all substance use outcomes. Adjusted models accounted for different sites, sex, age, ethnicity, parental education, and proportion of time spent in a facility. In adjusted models, higher levels of future orientation resulted in smaller increases in substance use at future time points. Future orientation and substance use influence each other in this sample of adolescent offenders. Treating substance use disorders is also likely to increase future orientation, promoting positive youth development more generally. This study expands our understanding of the longitudinal relationship between changes in future orientation and changes in levels of substance use in a sample of justice involved youth with high levels of substance use, a group of considerable clinical and policy interest.

Randomized Trial of Treatment for Children with Sexual Behavior Problems: Ten-Year Follow-Up

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carpentier, Melissa Y.; Silovsky, Jane F.; Chaffin, Mark

2006-01-01

This study prospectively follows 135 children 5-12 years of age with sexual behavior problems from a randomized trial comparing a 12-session group cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) with group play therapy and follows 156 general clinic children with nonsexual behavior problems. Ten-year follow-up data on future juvenile and adult arrests and…

Forecasting future prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Syria

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is increasingly becoming a major public health problem worldwide. Estimating the future burden of diabetes is instrumental to guide the public health response to the epidemic. This study aims to project the prevalence of T2DM among adults in Syria over the period 2003–2022 by applying a modelling approach to the country’s own data. Methods Future prevalence of T2DM in Syria was estimated among adults aged 25 years and older for the period 2003–2022 using the IMPACT Diabetes Model (a discrete-state Markov model). Results According to our model, the prevalence of T2DM in Syria is projected to double in the period between 2003 and 2022 (from 10% to 21%). The projected increase in T2DM prevalence is higher in men (148%) than in women (93%). The increase in prevalence of T2DM is expected to be most marked in people younger than 55 years especially the 25–34 years age group. Conclusions The future projections of T2DM in Syria put it amongst countries with the highest levels of T2DM worldwide. It is estimated that by 2022 approximately a fifth of the Syrian population aged 25 years and older will have T2DM. PMID:23705638

Determinants of leisure-time physical activity and future intention to practice in Spanish college students.

PubMed

Molina-García, Javier; Castillo, Isabel; Pablos, Carlos

2009-05-01

Few studies analyze determinants and patterns of physical activity among college students, so it has not been possible to carry out effective interventions to promote this practice. The aim of this study was to analyze the associations between some personal, social, and environmental determinants, practice of physical activity and future intention to practice in a sample of 639 university students (321 men and 318 women), mean age 21.43 years (+/- 2.78). Physical fitness self-perception, physical activity history, and coach's support to practice physical activity have a direct effect on the practice of physical activity and an indirect effect on future intention to practice, both in men and women. The practice of physical activity has also a direct effect on future intention to practice. Likewise, the participation in sport competitions predicts practice of physical activity and future intention in men, whereas being a member of a sports club predicts practice and future intention in women.

How College Learners of German Envision Their Final Attainment: Between Community and Future Self

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chavez, Monika

2013-01-01

This study explores the ways first-, second-, and third-year college students ("n" = 352) perceived their likely attainment of 19 morpho-syntactic, phonological, pragmatic, and lexical features of German. Analyses further differentiated perceptions by the learner variables of year of enrollment, gender, achievement, motivation for…

Extending General Education to the Junior and Senior Years.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Peggy, Ed.

1982-01-01

Activities are described that illustrate the ways new emphases on structure, liberal arts curriculum, attention to basic skills, a global approach, four-year study courses, and non-lecture pedagogy are being incorporated into college curricula across the country. An opening essay ("The General Education Reform: Accomplishments and Future Agenda")…

The Future of African-Americans to the Year 2000.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Congressional Task Force on the Future of African-Americans, Washington, DC.

This study considers the present condition of African-Americans and makes projections for the year 2000, emphasizing the relative conditions of European-Americans and African-Americans, and considering the public and private policy implications of these projections. Section 1, an overview of the subject, covers the following topics: (1) "The…

Seasonal changes in carbohydrate levels in roots of sugar maple

Treesearch

Philip M. Wargo; Philip M. Wargo

1971-01-01

This study was done to determine the normal complement of individual carbohydrates present in roots of sugar maples duringthe year and to obtain, as a basis for future comparison, an estimate of the normal variation and range of concentrations of individual carbohydrates in the roots during the year.

Native and exotic plant cover vary inversely along a climate gradient 11 years following stand-replacing wildfire in a dry coniferous forest, Oregon, USA.

PubMed

Dodson, Erich K; Root, Heather T

2015-02-01

Community re-assembly following future disturbances will often occur under warmer and more moisture-limited conditions than when current communities assembled. Because the establishment stage is regularly the most sensitive to climate and competition, the trajectory of recovery from disturbance in a changing environment is uncertain, but has important consequences for future ecosystem functioning. To better understand how ongoing warming and rising moisture limitation may affect recovery, we studied native and exotic plant composition 11 years following complete stand-replacing wildfire in a dry coniferous forest spanning a large gradient in climatic moisture deficit (CMD) from warm and dry low elevation sites to relatively cool and moist higher elevations sites. We then projected future precipitation, temperature and CMD at our study locations for four scenarios selected to encompass a broad range of possible future conditions for the region. Native perennials dominated relatively cool and moist sites 11 years after wildfire, but were very sparse at the warmest and driest (high CMD) sites, particularly when combined with high topographic sun exposure. In contrast, exotic species (primarily annual grasses) were dominant or co-dominant at the warmest and driest sites, especially with high topographic sun exposure. All future scenarios projected increasing temperature and CMD in coming decades (e.g., from 4.5% to 29.5% higher CMD by the 2080's compared to the 1971-2000 average), even in scenarios where growing season (May-September) precipitation increased. These results suggest increasing temperatures and moisture limitation could facilitate longer term (over a decade) transitions toward exotic-dominated communities after severe wildfire when a suitable exotic seed source is present. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Study of future world markets for agricultural aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gobetz, F. W.; Assarabowski, R. J.

1979-01-01

The future world market for US-manufactured agricultural aircraft was studied and the technology needs for foreign markets were identified. Special emphasis was placed on the developing country market, but the developed countries and the communist group were also included in the forecasts. Aircraft needs were projected to the year 2000 by a method which accounted for field size, crop production, treated area, productivity, and attrition of the fleet. A special scenario involving a significant shift toward aerial fertilization was also considered. An operations analysis was conducted to compare the relative application costs of various existing and hypothetical future aircraft. A case study was made of Colombia as an example of a developing country in which aviation is emerging as an important industry.

Aftermath of Terror: A Nationwide Longitudinal Study of Posttraumatic Stress and Worry Across the Decade Following the September 11, 2001 Terrorist Attacks.

PubMed

Garfin, Dana Rose; Poulin, Michael J; Blum, Scott; Silver, Roxane Cohen

2018-02-01

Research conducted in the early years after the September 11, 2001 (9/11) terrorist attacks in New York, Pennsylvania, and Washington, DC demonstrated adverse psychological outcomes among residents of the United States who were exposed to the attacks both directly and indirectly via the media. However, less is known about the impact of this collective trauma over time. Beginning at the end of December 2006, a longitudinal study of a nationally representative sample of U.S. residents (Cohort 2, N = 1,613) examined the long-term effects of 9/11, with annual assessments administered every year for 3 years. We assessed rates of 9/11-related posttraumatic stress (PTS) annually during the first 2 years of the study; during the second and third years of the study, we assessed fear and worry regarding future terrorism. Rates of PTS among participants were compared with those assessed annually in a nationally representative sample between 2002 and 2004 (Cohort 1); results indicated a relatively stable pattern of 9/11-related PTS symptoms for 6 years following the attacks. Five to six years after 9/11, we found an association between 9/11-related PTS and both direct, B = 8.45, 95% CI [4.32, 12.59] and media-based (live television), B = 1.78, 95% CI [0.90, 2.65] exposure to the attacks. Six to 7 years post-9/11, fear and worry regarding future terrorism were predicted by 9/11-related PTS symptoms that had been reported approximately 5 years after the attacks, B = 0.04, 95% CI [0.03, 0.05]. The psychological legacy of 9/11 was perceptible among many U.S. residents throughout the decade that followed. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Traumatic Stress Studies.

Threats to coastal communities of Mahanadi delta due to imminent consequences of erosion - Present and near future.

PubMed

Mukhopadhyay, Anirban; Ghosh, Pramit; Chanda, Abhra; Ghosh, Amit; Ghosh, Subhajit; Das, Shouvik; Ghosh, Tuhin; Hazra, Sugata

2018-05-11

Coastal erosion is a natural hazard which causes significant loss to properties as well as coastal habitats. Coastal districts of Mahanadi delta, one of the most populated deltas of the Indian subcontinent, are suffering from the ill effects of coastal erosion. An important amount of assets is being lost every year along with forced migration of huge portions of coastal communities due to erosion. An attempt has been made in this study to predict the future coastline of the Mahanadi Delta based on historical trends. Historical coastlines of the delta have been extracted using semi-automated Tasselled Cap technique from the LANDSAT satellite imageries of the year 1990, 1995, 2000, 2006 and 2010. Using Digital Shoreline Assessment System (DSAS) tool of USGS, the trend of the coastline has been assessed in the form of End Point Rate (EPR) and Linear Regression Rate (LRR). A hybrid methodology has been adopted using statistical (EPR) and trigonometric functions to predict the future positions of the coastlines of the years 2020, 2035 and 2050. The result showed that most of the coastline (≈65%) is facing erosion at present. The predicted outcome shows that by the end of year 2050 the erosion scenario will worsen which in turn would lead to very high erosion risk for 30% of the total coastal mouzas (small administrative blocks). This study revealed the coastal erosion trend of Mahanadi delta and based on the predicted coastlines it can be inferred that the coastal communities in near future would be facing substantial threat due to erosion particularly in areas surrounding Puri (a renowned tourist pilgrimage) and Paradwip (one of the busiest ports and harbours of the country). Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Potential effects of climate change on streamflow for seven watersheds in eastern and central Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chase, Katherine J.; Haj, Adel E.; Regan, R. Steven; Viger, Roland J.

2016-01-01

Study regionEastern and central Montana.Study focusFish in Northern Great Plains streams tolerate extreme conditions including heat, cold, floods, and drought; however changes in streamflow associated with long-term climate change may render some prairie streams uninhabitable for current fish species. To better understand future hydrology of these prairie streams, the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model and output from the RegCM3 Regional Climate model were used to simulate streamflow for seven watersheds in eastern and central Montana, for a baseline period (water years 1982–1999) and three future periods: water years 2021–2038 (2030 period), 2046–2063 (2055 period), and 2071–2088 (2080 period).New hydrological insights for the regionProjected changes in mean annual and mean monthly streamflow vary by the RegCM3 model selected, by watershed, and by future period. Mean annual streamflows for all future periods are projected to increase (11–21%) for two of the four central Montana watersheds: Middle Musselshell River and Cottonwood Creek. Mean annual streamflows for all future periods are projected to decrease (changes of −24 to −75%) for Redwater River watershed in eastern Montana. Mean annual streamflows are projected to increase slightly (2–15%) for the 2030 period and decrease (changes of −16 to −44%) for the 2080 period for the four remaining watersheds.

Asteroid Studies: A 35-Year Forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivkin, A. S.; Denevi, B. W.; Klima, R. L.; Ernst, C. M.; Chabot, N. L.; Barnouin, O. S.; Cohen, B. A.

2017-02-01

We are in an active time for asteroid studies, which fall at the intersection of science, planetary defense, human exploration, and in situ resource utilization. We look forward and extrapolate what the future may hold for asteroid science.

The projected public health and economic impact of vitamin D fortified dairy products for fracture prevention in France.

PubMed

Hiligsmann, Mickael; Reginster, Jean-Yves

2018-04-01

There is a paucity of research that projects the public health and economic impact of healthcare interventions in the future. In this study, we aimed to estimate the public health and economic impact of vitamin D fortified dairy products for the years 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050 and 2060. We used a previously validated Markov microsimulation model that was designed to assess the public health and economic impact of dairy products for fracture prevention in the French general population aged over 60 years in the year 2015. The expected benefit (in terms of fractures prevented) of the recommended intake of dairy products compared to the absence of appropriate intake is expected to increase by 63% in 2040 and by 85% in 2060. The cost per quality-adjusted life years gained of the appropriate intake of dairy products is expected to decrease from €58,244 in 2015 to €42,616 in 2060. The potential public health and economic benefits of vitamin D fortified dairy products is expected to substantially increase in the future, especially in the population aged over 80 years. Decision makers should be aware of the current and future potential benefits of dairy products to protect bone fractures.

Enterovirus D68

MedlinePlus

... EV-D68 outbreak this year or in future years? Enteroviruses are ever-present in the community. We can’t predict whether EV-D68 will be a common type of enterovirus detected this year or in other future seasons. A mix of ...

Projected changes to short- and long-duration precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairie Provinces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masud, M. B.; Khaliq, M. N.; Wheater, H. S.

2017-09-01

The effects of climate change on April-October short- and long-duration precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairie Provinces were evaluated using a multi-Regional Climate Model (RCM) ensemble available through the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Simulations considered include those performed with six RCMs driven by the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis II product for the 1981-2000 period and those driven by four Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) for the current 1971-2000 and future 2041-2070 periods (i.e. a total of 11 current-to-future period simulation pairs). A regional frequency analysis approach was used to develop 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, and 50-year return values of precipitation extremes from NCEP and AOGCM-driven current and future period simulations that respectively were used to study the performance of RCMs and projected changes for selected return values at regional, grid-cell and local scales. Performance errors due to internal dynamics and physics of RCMs studied for the 1981-2000 period reveal considerable variation in the performance of the RCMs. However, the performance errors were found to be much smaller for RCM ensemble averages than for individual RCMs. Projected changes in future climate to selected regional return values of short-duration (e.g. 15- and 30-min) precipitation extremes and for longer return periods (e.g. 50-year) were found to be mostly larger than those to the longer duration (e.g. 24- and 48-h) extremes and short return periods (e.g. 2-year). Overall, projected changes in precipitation extremes were larger for southeastern regions followed by southern and northern regions and smaller for southwestern and western regions of the study area. The changes to return values were also found to be statistically significant for the majority of the RCM-AOGCM simulation pairs. These projections might be useful as a key input for the future planning of urban drainage infrastructure and development of strategic climate change adaptation measures.

Monitoring the Future National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2016. Volume II, College Students & Adults Ages 19-55

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schulenberg, John E.; Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Miech, Richard A.; Patrick, Megan E.

2017-01-01

Monitoring the Future (MTF), now in its 42nd year, is a research program conducted at the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research under a series of investigator-initiated, competing research grants from the National Institute on Drug Abuse--one of the National Institutes of Health. The study comprises several ongoing series of…

Identity and Future Concerns among Adolescents from Italy, Turkey and Germany: Intra- and Between-Cultural Comparisons

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haid, Marja-Lena; Seiffge-Krenke, Inge; Molinar, Roberta; Ciairano, Silvia; Guney Karaman, Neslihan; Cok, Figen

2010-01-01

The present study investigated stress perception and coping styles in 3259 Turkish, Italian, and German adolescents with a mean age of 14.97 years (SD = 1.74). The adolescents filled in self-report measures assessing stress perception and coping styles in two problem domains: future and identity. In order to allow for analyses of intra-country and…

Monitoring the Future National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2015. Volume 2, College Students & Adults Ages 19-55

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Schulenberg, John E.; Miech, Richard A.

2016-01-01

Monitoring the Future (MTF), now in its 41st year, is a research program conducted at the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research under a series of investigator-initiated, competing research grants from the National Institute on Drug Abuse--one of the National Institutes of Health. The study comprises several ongoing series of…

Monitoring the Future National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2014. Volume 2, College Students & Adults Ages 19-55

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Schulenberg, John E.; Miech, Richard A.

2015-01-01

Monitoring the Future (MTF), now in its 40th year, is a research program conducted at the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research under a series of investigator-initiated research grants from the National Institute on Drug Abuse--one of the National Institutes of Health. The study comprises several ongoing series of annual surveys…

Relations between the Development of Future Time Perspective in Three Life Domains, Investment in Learning, and Academic Achievement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peetsma, Thea; van der Veen, Ineke

2011-01-01

Relations between the development of future time perspectives in three life domains (i.e., school and professional career, social relations, and leisure time) and changes in students' investment in learning and academic achievement were examined in this study. Participants were 584 students in the first and 584 in the second year of the lower…

The Family Environment as a Determinant of Religious and Spiritual Change in Students and Their Parents Following a Post High School Year of Study in Israel

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goldstein, Natan

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine some of the causes of the religious and spiritual changes that Orthodox Jewish youth seem to be experiencing as a result of their post high school year of study in Israel. Specific family factors that might influence the future religious and spiritual choices these students make were analyzed. In…

Coping Skills Help Explain How Future-Oriented Adolescents Accrue Greater Well-Being Over Time.

PubMed

Chua, Li Wen; Milfont, Taciano L; Jose, Paul E

2015-11-01

Adolescents who endorse greater levels of future orientation report greater well-being over time, but we do not know the mechanism by which this happens. The present longitudinal study examined whether both adaptive as well as maladaptive coping strategies might explain how future orientation leads to ill-being and well-being over time in young New Zealanders. A sample of 1,774 preadolescents and early adolescents (51.9 % female) aged 10-15 years at Time 1 completed a self-report survey three times with 1 year intervals in between. Longitudinal mediation path models were constructed to determine whether and how maladaptive and adaptive coping strategies at Time 2 functioned as mediators between future orientation at Time 1 and ill-being and well-being at Time 3. Results showed that future orientation predicted lower maladaptive coping, which in turn predicted lower substance use and self-harming behavior. All three well-being outcomes (i.e., happiness with weight, vitality, and sleep) were consistently predicted by future orientation, and all three pathways were mediated by both lower maladaptive and higher adaptive coping strategies (with the exception of happiness with weight, which was mediated only by lower maladaptive coping). The results suggest that several pathways by which future orientation leads to greater well-being occurs through an increased use of adaptive coping, a decreased use of maladaptive coping, or both.

Planning for a Nondriving Future: Behaviors and Beliefs Among Middle-Aged and Older Drivers.

PubMed

Harmon, Annie C; Babulal, Ganesh; Vivoda, Jonathon M; Zikmund-Fisher, Brian J; Carr, David B

2018-01-01

Despite the reality of older adults living many years after driving cessation, few prepare for the eventuality; empirically, planning for a nondriving future has not been directly quantified or explored. The following study quantifies 1) the extent of current drivers' planning, 2) specific planning behaviors, 3) beliefs about benefits of planning, 4) drivers' intention to plan more for future transportation needs, and 5) group differences associated with planning. In a predominantly female, black, urban sample of current drivers ages 53-92, fewer than half (42.1%) had planned at all for a nondriving future, with correspondingly low levels of planning behaviors reported. However, over 80% believed planning would help them meet their needs post-cessation and transition emotionally to being a nondriver. Most (85%) intended to plan more in the future as well, indicating further potential openness to the topic. Drivers who planned were older, drove less frequently, limited their driving to nearby places, reported less difficulty believing they would become a nondriver, and expected to continue driving three years less than non-planners. These findings suggest that drivers' perceived nearness to driving cessation impacts planning for future transportation needs, and existing perceived benefits of planning may provide leverage to motivate action.

Challenges in the First Year of Teaching: Lessons Learned in an Elementary Education Resident Teacher Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gourneau, Bonni

2014-01-01

It is well known that the first years of teaching are a challenge for all beginning teachers. According to the National Commission on Teaching and America's Future's study (2010) first-year teacher attrition has been steadily increasing and many leave the profession even before they are proficient educators who know how to work with colleagues to…

Assessment of student interprofessional education (IPE) training for team-based geriatric home care: does IPE training change students' knowledge and attitudes?

PubMed

Reilly, Jo Marie; Aranda, María P; Segal-Gidan, Freddi; Halle, Ashley; Han, Phuu Pwint; Harris, Patricia; Jordan, Katie; Mulligan, Roseann; Resnik, Cheryl; Tsai, Kai-Ya; Williams, Brad; Cousineau, Michael R

2014-01-01

Our study assesses changes in students' knowledge and attitudes after participation in an interprofessional, team-based, geriatric home training program. Second-year medical, physician assistant, occupational therapy, social work, and physical therapy students; third-year pharmacy students; and fourth-year dental students were led by interprofessional faculty teams. Student participants were assessed before and after the curriculum using an interprofessional attitudes learning scale. Significant differences and positive data trends were noted at year-end. Our study suggests that early implementation, assessment, and standardization of years of student training is needed for optimal interprofessional geriatric learning. Additionally, alternative student assessment tools should be considered for future studies.

Normalizing the Future Years Defense Program for Funding Policy Changes.

DTIC Science & Technology

1997-01-01

IDA INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES - Normalizing the Future Years Defense Program for Funding Policy Changes f James L. Wilson, Project... Policy Changes James L.Wilson, Project Leader Timothy J. Graves John A. Lobi Ronald E. Porten PREFACE This paper was prepared by the Institute for...to match the funding policies now in effect for the current and future years. This work was reviewed within IDA by Waynard C. Devers and Stanley A

Future anthropogenic pollutant emissions in a Mediterranean port city with emphasis on the maritime sector emissions - Study of the impact on the city air quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liora, Natalia; Poupkou, Anastasia; Markakis, Konstantinos; Giannaros, Theodoros; Karagiannidis, Athanasios; Melas, Dimitrios

2013-04-01

The aim of this study is the estimation of the future emissions in the area of the large urban center of Thessaloniki (Greece) with emphasis on the emissions originated from the maritime sector within the port area of the city which are presented in detail. In addition, the contribution of the future anthropogenic emissions to atmospheric pollution levels in Thessaloniki focusing on PM levels is studied. A 2km spatial resolution anthropogenic gaseous and particulate matter emission inventory has been compiled for the port city of Thessaloniki for the year 2010 with the anthropogenic emission model MOSESS, developed by Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki. MOSESS was used for the estimation of emissions from several emission sources (road transport, central heating, industries, maritime sector etc) while the natural emission model NEMO was implemented for the calculation of dust, sea salt and biogenic emissions. Maritime emissions originated from the various processes inside the area of the port (harbor operations such as stockpiles, loading/unloading operations, machineries etc) as well as from the maritime transport sector including passenger ships, cargo shipping, inland waterways vessels (e.g. pleasure crafts) and fish catching ships. Ship emissions were estimated for the three operation modes; cruising, maneuvering and hotelling. For the calculation of maritime emissions, the activity data used were provided by local and national authorities (e.g.Thessaloniki Port Authority S.A.). Pollutant anthropogenic emissions were projected to the year 2020. The emissions from all the anthropogenic sources except for the maritime sector were projected using factors provided by the GAINS model. Future emissions from the maritime activities were estimated on the basis of the future activity data provided by the Port Authority and of the legislation for shipping in the future. Future maritime emissions are determined by the vessels traffic changes as foreseen for the year 2020 by the Port Authority Investment Plan and by the reduction of the sulfur content in fuels used by ships in cruising mode to 0.5% m/m according to a revision of the MARPOL Annex VI. Based on the above, an approximately 60% increase in the future maritime sector PM10 emissions is expected due to the high increase of the traffic of vessels. The impact of future emissions on the air quality of Thessaloniki is examined with the use of the modelling system WRF-CAMx applied with 2km spatial resolution over the study area. Simulations of the modelling system are performed for a summertime (July 2011) and a wintertime (15 November to 15 December 2011) period accounting for present time (scenario A) and future time (scenario B) pollutant emissions. The differences in pollutant levels (mainly PM) between the scenarios examined are presented and discussed.

Preparing physical therapy students for the role of clinical educator: a case study report.

PubMed

Dockter, Mary; Roller, Joellen; Eckert, Jody

2013-01-01

The purpose of this case report was to describe an innovative model for transforming physical therapist students into clinical instructors with the use of a pro bono clinic. This model may assist other academic programs in creating effective approaches to transition entry-level students into future quality clinical instructors. Third year physical therapist students served as clinical instructors for second year students. Peer and self assessments were collected to assess intended objectives. Second year students were made more aware of the role of the clinical instructor and were able to evaluate the effectiveness of clinical teaching and third year students appreciated the impact of clinical teaching and increased their desire to become clinical instructors in the future. Student self and peer assessments reveal that this experiential model is an effective way of transitioning entry-level physical therapist students into the role of clinical instructor.

Association Between Previous Injury and Risk Factors for Future Injury in Preprofessional Ballet and Contemporary Dancers.

PubMed

Kenny, Sarah J; Palacios-Derflingher, Luz; Shi, Qian; Whittaker, Jackie L; Emery, Carolyn A

2017-10-20

To determine the prevalence of self-reported 1-year injury history and examine its association with preparticipation evaluation components aimed at predicting future injury risk (PPE-IP) among preprofessional ballet and contemporary dancers. Cross-sectional study. Preprofessional ballet school, university contemporary dance program. Full-time preprofessional ballet and contemporary dancers. Preparticipation evaluation consisted of the Athletic Coping Skills Inventory-28, body mass index, total bone mineral density, ankle range of motion, active standing turnout, lumbopelvic control, unipedal dynamic balance, and Y-Balance test. Self-reported 1-year history of dance-related medical attention and/or time-loss injury. A total of 155 ballet [n = 90, 80 females, median age 15 years (range 11-19)] and contemporary [n = 65, 63 females, median age 20 years (range 17-30)] dancers participated. Forty-six percent (95% confidence interval (CI), 38.4-54.6) reported a 1-year injury history. Self-reported injury history was not associated with any PPE-IP, however, an influence of age and psychological coping skills on the relationship between 1-year injury history and PPE-IP was identified. Multivariable analyses revealed that prevalence of 1-year injury history did not differ by age [referent group <15 years; 15-18 years: odds ratio (OR) 0.80 (95% CI, 0.35-1.79); >18 years: OR 0.69 (95% CI, 0.30-1.56)], or level of psychological coping skills [OR 1.35 (95% CI, 0.61-2.94)]. The prevalence of self-reported 1-year injury history among preprofessional ballet and contemporary dancers is high. Although measures of PPE-IP did not differ based on injury history, it is important that age and psychological coping skills are considered in future dance injury prevention and prediction research. Level 3 evidence.

Analysis of crimes committed against scheduled tribes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khadse, Vivek P.; Akhil, P.; Anto, Christopher; Gnanasigamani, Lydia J.

2017-11-01

One of the curses to the society is a crime which has a deep impact on the society. Victims of crimes are the one who is impacted the most. All communities in the world are affected by crime and the criminal justice system, but largely impacted communities are the backward classes. There are many cases reported of crime committed against scheduled tribes from the year 2005 till date. This paper states the analysis of Crimes Committed against Scheduled Tribes in the year 2015 in various states and union territories in India. In this study, Multiple Linear regression techniques have been used to analyze the crimes committed against scheduled tribes’ community in India. This study compares the number of cases reported to the police station and rate of crime committed in different states in India. It also states the future prediction of the crime that would happen. It will also predict the number of cases of crime committed against the scheduled tribe that can be reported in future. The dataset which has been used in this study is taken from official Indian government repository for crimes which include different information of crimes committed against scheduled tribes in different states and union territories measured under the population census of the year 2011. This study will help different Indian states and union territory government to analyze and predict the future crimes that may occur and take appropriate measures against it before the actual crime would occur.

Studies of premixed laminar and turbulent flames at microgravity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ronney, Paul D.

1993-01-01

A two and one-half year experimental and theoretical research program on the properties of laminar and turbulent premixed gas flames at microgravity was conducted. Progress during this program is identified and avenues for future studies are discussed.

The association between urinary calculi and increased risk of future cardiovascular events: A nationwide population-based study.

PubMed

Hsu, Chien-Yi; Chen, Yung-Tai; Huang, Po-Hsun; Leu, Hsin-Bang; Su, Yu-Wen; Chiang, Chia-Hung; Chen, Jaw-Wen; Chen, Tzeng-Ji; Lin, Shing-Jong; Chan, Wan-Leong

2016-05-01

Although accumulating evidence suggests urinary calculi may be associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), the number of longitudinal studies linking urolithiasis to CVD events is limited. We investigated the association between urinary calculi and the risk of development of myocardial infarction (MI) and/or stroke in a nationwide, population-based cohort database in Taiwan. Our analyses were conducted using information from a random sample of 1 million people enrolled in the nationally representative Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. A total of 81,546 subjects aged 18 years or above, including 40,773 subjects diagnosed with urinary calculi during the study period and a propensity score-matched 40,773 subjects without urinary calculi were enrolled in our study. During a 10-year follow-up period, 501 MI events and 1295 stroke events were identified. By comparison, the urinary calculi group had a higher incidence rate of MI occurrence (11.79 vs 8.94 per 10,000 person-years) and stroke (31.41 vs 22.45 per 10,000 person-years). Cox proportional hazard regression model analysis showed that development of urinary calculi was independently associated with higher risk of developing future MI (HR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.09-1.56, p=0.003), stroke (HR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.24-1.55, p<0.001), and total cardiovascular events (HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.25-1.51, p<0.001). Urinary calculi were associated with an increased risk of future cardiovascular events in the Asian population, which was consistent with the recent epidemiologic evidence in Western countries. Copyright © 2015 Japanese College of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Does Metformin Treatment During Pregnancy Modify the Future Metabolic Profile in Women With PCOS?

PubMed

Underdal, Maria Othelie; Stridsklev, Solhild; Oppen, Ingrid Hennum; Høgetveit, Kristin; Andersen, Marianne Skovsager; Vanky, Eszter

2018-06-01

Worldwide, metformin is prescribed to improve pregnancy outcome in polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). Metformin may also benefit future health by modulating increased metabolic stress during pregnancy. To investigate whether metformin during pregnancy modified future metabolic health in women with PCOS. Follow-up study of a randomized controlled trial that compared metformin with placebo in women with PCOS. Mean follow-up period was 7.7 years (range, 5 to 11 years). Three university hospitals, seven local hospitals, and one gynecological specialist practice. Women with PCOS according to Rotterdam criteria; all former participants in the Metformin in Pregnant PCOS Women Study. Metformin 2000 mg daily or placebo from first trimester to delivery in the original study. No intervention in the present follow-up study. Main outcome measure was weight gain in the follow-up period. Weight, body mass index (BMI), waist and hip circumferences, and blood pressure (BP) were registered. Body composition was assessed by bioelectrical impedance analysis, and fasting lipids, glucose, and insulin were analyzed. Of 239 invited women, 131 (55%) participated in the follow-up. Weight gain was similar in women given metformin (2.1 ± 10.5 kg) and women given placebo (1.8 ± 11.2 kg) at 7.7 years' follow-up after pregnancy (P = 0.834). No difference was found in BMI, waist/hip ratio, BP, body composition, lipids, glucose and insulin levels, or prevalence of metabolic syndrome at follow-up between those treated with metformin and those treated with placebo during pregnancy. Metformin treatment during pregnancy did not influence the metabolic profile in women with PCOS at 7.7 years of follow-up.

Basal ganglia atrophy in prodromal Huntington’s disease is detectable over one year using automated segmentation

PubMed Central

Majid, DS Adnan; Aron, Adam R; Thompson, Wesley; Sheldon, Sarah; Hamza, Samar; Stoffers, Diederick; Holland, Dominic; Goldstein, Jody; Corey-Bloom, Jody; Dale, Anders M

2017-01-01

Background Future clinical trials of neuroprotection in prodromal Huntington’s (known as preHD) require sensitive in vivo imaging biomarkers to track disease progression over the shortest period. Since basal ganglia atrophy is the most prominent structural characteristic of Huntington’s pathology, systematic assessment of longitudinal subcortical atrophy holds great potential for future biomarker development. Methods We studied 36 preHD and 22 age-matched controls using a novel method to quantify regional change from T1-weighted structural images acquired one year apart. We assessed cross-sectional volume differences and longitudinal volumetric change in seven subcortical structures – the accumbens, amygdala, caudate, hippocampus, pallidum, putamen, and thalamus. Results At baseline, accumbens, caudate, pallidum, and putamen volumes were reduced in preHD vs. controls (all p<.01). Longitudinally, atrophy was greater in preHD than controls in the caudate, pallidum, and putamen (all p<.01). Each structure showed a large between-group effect size, especially the pallidum where Cohen’s d was 1.21. Using pallidal atrophy as a biomarker, we estimate that a hypothetical one-year neuroprotection study would require only 35 preHD per arm to detect a 50% slowing in atrophy and only 138 preHD per arm to detect a 25% slowing in atrophy. Conclusions The effect sizes calculated for preHD basal ganglia atrophy over one year are some of the largest reported to date. Consequently, this translates to strikingly small sample size estimates that will greatly facilitate any future neuroprotection study. This underscores the utility of this automatic image segmentation and longitudinal nonlinear registration method for upcoming studies of preHD and other neurodegenerative disorders. PMID:21932302

Future C loss in mid-latitude mineral soils: climate change exceeds land use mitigation potential in France

PubMed Central

Meersmans, Jeroen; Arrouays, Dominique; Van Rompaey, Anton J. J.; Pagé, Christian; De Baets, Sarah; Quine, Timothy A.

2016-01-01

Many studies have highlighted significant interactions between soil C reservoir dynamics and global climate and environmental change. However, in order to estimate the future soil organic carbon sequestration potential and related ecosystem services well, more spatially detailed predictions are needed. The present study made detailed predictions of future spatial evolution (at 250 m resolution) of topsoil SOC driven by climate change and land use change for France up to the year 2100 by taking interactions between climate, land use and soil type into account. We conclude that climate change will have a much bigger influence on future SOC losses in mid-latitude mineral soils than land use change dynamics. Hence, reducing CO2 emissions will be crucial to prevent further loss of carbon from our soils. PMID:27808169

Future C loss in mid-latitude mineral soils: climate change exceeds land use mitigation potential in France.

PubMed

Meersmans, Jeroen; Arrouays, Dominique; Van Rompaey, Anton J J; Pagé, Christian; De Baets, Sarah; Quine, Timothy A

2016-11-03

Many studies have highlighted significant interactions between soil C reservoir dynamics and global climate and environmental change. However, in order to estimate the future soil organic carbon sequestration potential and related ecosystem services well, more spatially detailed predictions are needed. The present study made detailed predictions of future spatial evolution (at 250 m resolution) of topsoil SOC driven by climate change and land use change for France up to the year 2100 by taking interactions between climate, land use and soil type into account. We conclude that climate change will have a much bigger influence on future SOC losses in mid-latitude mineral soils than land use change dynamics. Hence, reducing CO 2 emissions will be crucial to prevent further loss of carbon from our soils.

Serial assessment of arterial stiffness by cardio-ankle vascular index for prediction of future cardiovascular events in patients with coronary artery disease.

PubMed

Otsuka, Kenichiro; Fukuda, Shota; Shimada, Kenei; Suzuki, Kenji; Nakanishi, Koki; Yoshiyama, Minoru; Yoshikawa, Junichi

2014-11-01

Arterial stiffness is a significant predictor of cardiovascular disease (CVD), the risk of which is modified by medications for atherosclerotic risk factors and life-style changes. Cardio-ankle vascular index (CAVI) provides noninvasive, objective information on arterial stiffness, independent of blood pressure. This study aimed to investigate changes in CAVI after management of atherosclerotic risk factors, and the impact of these changes on future CVD outcomes in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). The study consisted of 211 CAD patients (65 ± 10 years, 118 men) with impaired CAVI. CAVI examination was repeated 6 months later. Impaired CAVI was defined as greater than the mean plus 1 s.d. of the age- and gender-specific normal CAVI values, according to results obtained in 5188 healthy subjects. All patients were followed for > 1 year or until the occurrence of a CVD event. Of the 211 patients, CAVI improved in 106 (50%) patients after 6 months, but remained high in 105 (50%) patients. During follow-up (2.9 ± 1.0 years), CVD events occurred in 28 (13%) patients. Persistently impaired CAVI was an independent predictor of future CVD events (P = 0.01), independent of baseline CAVI. CVD outcomes were worse in patients with persistently impaired CAVI than in those with improved CAVI (P < 0.001). Among patients with a normalized CAVI after treatment (n = 22) only one suffered a CVD event. This study was the first to demonstrate that persistent impairment of arterial stiffness was an independent risk factor of future CVD events. Serial measurements of CAVI provide important prognostic information regarding patients with CAD in clinical practice.

Helping youth in underserved communities envision possible futures: an extension of the Teaching Personal and Social Responsibility model.

PubMed

Walsh, David

2008-06-01

Empowering youth through the exploration of their possible futures is afresh and innovative approach to the Teaching Personal and Social Responsibility model (TPSR). The purpose of this study was to examine the combination of TPSR with the theory of possible selves. This combination, called the Career Club, was a program specifically designed to better assist students in understanding and facilitating reflective discussions on their future decisions. Career Club was taught weekly for nine sessions, 90 min each, at an inner city elementary school in a large metropolitan city. Participants comprised 12 seventh- and eighth-grade boys and girls who had at least 1 year and up to 5 years of experience in a TPSR program. Data sources included document analysis, lesson observations, formal interviews, and observationalfield notes. Themes were classified into the following categories: hoped- for-selves and feared selves-a delicate balance, coaching as a necessary component, and coming to understand possible futures. These results indicated that Career Club was effective in providing the participants a meaningful career exploration in coaching. Data also suggested these coaching experiences facilitated reflective discussions on realizing their future orientation choices.

Remembering the past and imagining the future: common and distinct neural substrates during event construction and elaboration

PubMed Central

Addis, Donna Rose; Wong, Alana T.; Schacter, Daniel L.

2007-01-01

People can consciously re-experience past events and pre-experience possible future events. This fMRI study examined the neural regions mediating the construction and elaboration of past and future events. Participants were cued with a noun for 20 seconds and instructed to construct a past or future event within a specified time period (week, year, 5–20 years). Once participants had the event in mind, they made a button press and for the remainder of the 20 seconds elaborated on the event. Importantly, all events generated were episodic and did not differ on a number of phenomenological qualities (detail, emotionality, personal significance, field/observer perspective). Conjunction analyses indicated the left hippocampus was commonly engaged by past and future event construction, along with posterior visuospatial regions, but considerable neural differentiation was also observed during the construction phase. Future events recruited regions involved in prospective thinking and generation processes, specifically right frontopolar cortex and left ventrolateral prefrontal cortex, respectively. Furthermore, future event construction uniquely engaged the right hippocampus, possibly as a response to the novelty of these events. In contrast to the construction phase, elaboration was characterized by remarkable overlap in regions comprising the autobiographical memory retrieval network, attributable to the common processes engaged during elaboration, including self-referential processing, contextual and episodic imagery. This striking neural overlap is consistent with findings that amnesic patients exhibit deficits in both past and future thinking, and confirms that the episodic system contributes importantly to imagining the future. PMID:17126370

Understanding Temporality and Future Orientation for Young Women in the Senior Year

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Duggan, Shane

2017-01-01

This article considers how time is imagined, lived, and desired in young women's lives as they undertake their final year of secondary school studies in Melbourne, Australia. It argues that economic and competitive imperatives have intensified for many young people in recent times, manifesting in an educational apparatus that increasingly defines…

Inventory and Expressive Measures of Locus of Control and Academic Performance: A 5-Year Outcome Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Otten, Mark W.

1977-01-01

Rotter's Internal External Locus of Control Scale and Ezekiel's Personal Future Autobiography were administered to 45 freshmen and 45 graduate students. Although the two tests had negative nonsignificant correlations, both tests were positively correlated with academic achievement (specifically, graduation within five years) for the internal locus…

Battered Women's Process of Leaving: A 2-Year Follow-Up

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Chris; Trangsrud, Heather B.; Linnemeyer, Rachel M.

2009-01-01

This study is a follow-up investigation of the career and life experiences of battered women two years after shelter exit. Using consensual qualitative research, we interviewed 6 women from our original sample of 13 regarding their career and life adjustments and future aspirations. Results indicated that participants generally reported both…

The First Year in Higher Education--Critical Requirements from the Student Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Trautwein, Caroline; Bosse, Elke

2017-01-01

While study success and completion rates are important issues in educational policy, research highlights the particular relevance of the first year in higher education (HE) for students' future academic performance and achievement. In Germany, the recent reform of degree programmes appears to have created new challenges related to students'…

Eight years of regional scale, benthic assessments of the U.S. West Coast: Lessons learned and future directions

EPA Science Inventory

The EPA National Coastal Assessment (NCA) conducted regional scale assessments of benthic condition for the US West Coast from Washington to California, several regions of Alaska, Hawaii, and the Trust Territories of Guam and American Samoa. Over an 8-year period, studies focuse...

The Educational Psychologist in the Early Years: Current Practice and Future Directions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shannon, Deborah; Posada, Susan

2007-01-01

Following suggestions for updated models of service within the early years educational psychologist (EP) role, the study aimed to provide exploratory research evidence of current models of service delivery and EP attitudes. Questionnaires were completed by 32 EPs. Interviews were conducted with three EPs. Quantitative data obtained were analysed…

Biobjective planning of an active debris removal mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madakat, Dalal; Morio, Jérôme; Vanderpooten, Daniel

2013-03-01

The growth of the orbital debris population has been a concern to the international space community for several years. Recent studies have shown that the debris environment in Low Earth Orbit (LEO, defined as the region up to 2000 km altitude) has reached a point where the debris population will continue to increase even if all future launches are suspended. As the orbits of these objects often overlap the trajectories of satellites, debris create a potential collision risk. However, several studies show that about 5 objects per year should be removed in order to keep the future LEO environment stable. In this article, we propose a biobjective time dependent traveling salesman problem (BiTDTSP) model for the problem of optimally removing debris and use a branch and bound approach to deal with it.

‘Antarctic biology in the 21st century - Advances in, and beyond the international polar year 2007-2008’

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stoddart, Michael

2010-08-01

The International Polar Year 2007-2008 (IPY) has provided an opportunity for biology to show itself as an important part of Antarctic science in a manner in which it was not seen during earlier Polar Years. Of the 15 endorsed biological projects in Antarctica, 7 included more than 20 scientists and could be deemed truly international. Four were conducted in the marine environment, and one each in the fields of biological invasions, microbial ecology, and terrestrial ecology, and one was SCAR’s over-arching ‘Evolution and Biodiversity in the Antarctic’. The marine projects have left a robust legacy of data for future research into the consequences of environmental change, and into future decisions about marine protected areas. Studies on introductions of exotic organisms reveal an ever-present threat to the warmer parts of the high-latitude Southern Ocean, or parts which might become warmer with climate change. Studies on microbial ecology reveal great complexity of ecosystems with high numbers of unknown species. Terrestrial research has shown how vulnerable the Antarctic is to accidental introductions, and how productive the soils can be under changed climate conditions. Antarctic biology has come-of-age during IPY 2007-2008 and the campaign has set the scene for future research.

Predictive Value of National Football League Scouting Combine on Future Performance of Running Backs and Wide Receivers.

PubMed

Teramoto, Masaru; Cross, Chad L; Willick, Stuart E

2016-05-01

The National Football League (NFL) Scouting Combine is held each year before the NFL Draft to measure athletic abilities and football skills of college football players. Although the NFL Scouting Combine can provide the NFL teams with an opportunity to evaluate college players for the upcoming NFL Draft, its value for predicting future success of players has been questioned. This study examined whether the NFL Combine measures can predict future performance of running backs (RBs) and wide receivers (WRs) in the NFL. We analyzed the 2000-09 Combine data of RBs (N = 276) and WRs (N = 447) and their on-field performance for the first 3 years after the draft and over their entire careers in the NFL, using correlation and regression analyses, along with a principal component analysis (PCA). The results of the analyses showed that, after accounting for the number of games played, draft position, height (HT), and weight (WT), the time on 10-yard dash was the most important predictor of rushing yards per attempt of the first 3 years (p = 0.002) and of the careers (p < 0.001) in RBs. For WRs, vertical jump was found to be significantly associated with receiving yards per reception of the first 3 years (p = 0.001) and of the careers (p = 0.004) in the NFL, after adjusting for the covariates above. Furthermore, HT was most important in predicting future performance of WRs. The analyses also revealed that the 8 athletic drills in the Combine seemed to have construct validity. It seems that the NFL Scouting Combine has some value for predicting future performance of RBs and WRs in the NFL.

Considering Future Potential Regarding Structural Diversity in Selection of Forest Reserves.

PubMed

Lundström, Johanna; Öhman, Karin; Rönnqvist, Mikael; Gustafsson, Lena

2016-01-01

A rich structural diversity in forests promotes biodiversity. Forests are dynamic and therefore it is crucial to consider future structural potential when selecting reserves, to make robust conservation decisions. We analyzed forests in boreal Sweden based on 17,599 National Forest Inventory (NFI) plots with the main aim to understand how effectiveness of reserves depends on the time dimension in the selection process, specifically by considering future structural diversity. In the study both the economic value and future values of 15 structural variables were simulated during a 100 year period. To get a net present structural value (NPSV), a single value covering both current and future values, we used four discounting alternatives: (1) only considering present values, (2) giving equal importance to values in each of the 100 years within the planning horizon, (3) applying an annual discount rate considering the risk that values could be lost, and (4) only considering the values in year 100. The four alternatives were evaluated in a reserve selection model under budget-constrained and area-constrained selections. When selecting young forests higher structural richness could be reached at a quarter of the cost over almost twice the area in a budget-constrained selection compared to an area-constrained selection. Our results point to the importance of considering future structural diversity in the selection of forest reserves and not as is done currently to base the selection on existing values. Targeting future values increases structural diversity and implies a relatively lower cost. Further, our results show that a re-orientation from old to young forests would imply savings while offering a more extensive reserve network with high structural qualities in the future. However, caution must be raised against a drastic reorientation of the current old-forest strategy since remnants of ancient forests will need to be prioritized due to their role for disturbance-sensitive species.

Work ability score and future work ability as predictors of register-based disability pension and long-term sickness absence: A three-year follow-up study.

PubMed

Kinnunen, Ulla; Nätti, Jouko

2018-05-01

We investigated two single items of the Work Ability Index - work ability score, and future work ability - as predictors of register-based disability pension and long-term sickness absence over a three-year follow-up. Survey responses of 11,131 Finnish employees were linked to pension and long-term (more than 10 days) sickness absence register data by Statistics Finland. Work ability score was divided into poor (0-5), moderate (6-7) and good/excellent (8-10) and future work ability into poor (1-2) and good (3) work ability at baseline. Cox proportional hazard regressions were used in the analysis of disability pension, and a negative binomial model in the analysis of long-term sickness absence. The results were adjusted for several background, work- and health-related covariates. Compared with those with good/excellent work ability scores, the hazard ratios of disability pension after adjusting for all covariates were 9.84 (95% CI 6.68-14.49) for poor and 2.25 (CI 95% 1.51-3.35) for moderate work ability score. For future work ability, the hazard ratio was 8.19 (95% CI 4.71-14.23) among those with poor future work ability. The incidence rate ratios of accumulated long-term sickness absence days were 3.08 (95% CI 2.19-4.32) and 1.59 (95% CI 1.32-1.92) for poor and moderate work ability scores, and 1.51 (95% CI 0.97-2.36) for poor future work ability. The single items of work ability score and future work ability predicted register-based disability pension equally well, but work ability score was a better predictor of register-based long-term sickness absence days than future work ability in a three-year follow-up. Both items seem to be of use especially when examining the risk of poor work ability for disability but also for long sick leave.

Assessing the impacts of climate change on future water resources: a methodological approach based on equiratio CDF-matching and vine copula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham, Minh Tu; Vernieuwe, Hilde; De Baets, Bernard; Verhoest, Niko E. C.

2016-04-01

In this study, the impacts of climate change on future river discharge are evaluated using equiratio CDF-matching and a stochastic copula-based evapotranspiration generator. In recent years, much effort has been dedicated to improve the performances of RCMs outputs, i.e. the downscaled precipitation and temperature, to use in regional studies. However, these outputs usually suffer from bias due to the fact that many important small-scale processes, e.g. the representations of clouds and convection, are not represented explicitly within the models. To solve this problem, several bias correction techniques are developed. In this study, an advanced quantile bias approach called equiratio cumulative distribution function matching (EQCDF) is applied for the outputs from three RCMs for central Belgium, i.e. daily precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration, for the current (1961-1990) and future climate (2071-2100). The rescaled precipitation and temperature are then used to simulate evapotranspiration via a stochastic copula-based model in which the statistical dependence between evapotranspiration, temperature and precipitation is described by a three-dimensional vine copula. The simulated precipitation and stochastic evapotranspiration are then used to model discharge under present and future climate. To validate, the observations of daily precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration during 1961 - 1990 in Uccle, Belgium are used. It is found that under current climate, the basic properties of discharge, e.g. mean and frequency distribution, are well modelled; however there is an overestimation of the extreme discharges with return periods higher than 10 years. For the future climate change, compared with historical events, a considerable increase of the discharge magnitude and the number of extreme events is estimated for the studied area in the time period of 2071-2100.

Subject preferences of first- and second-year medical students for their future specialization at Chitwan Medical College and Teaching Hospital, Chitwan, Nepal - a questionnaire-based study.

PubMed

Jha, Rajesh K; Paudel, Keshab R; Shah, Dev K; Sah, Ajit K; Basnet, Sangharshila; Sah, Phoolgen; Adhikari, Sandeep

2015-01-01

The selection of a discipline for future specialization may be an important factor for the medical students' future career, and it is influenced by multiple factors. The interest of students in the early stages can be improved in subjects related to public health or of academic importance, as per need. A questionnaire-based study was conducted among 265 first- and second-year medical students of Chitwan Medical College, Nepal to find out their subject of preference for postgraduation and the factors affecting their selection along with their interesting basic science subject. Only the responses from 232 completely filled questionnaires were analyzed. The preference of the students for clinical surgical (50.9%), clinical medical (45.3%), and basic medical (3.9%) sciences for postgraduation were in descending order. The most preferred specialty among male students was clinical surgical sciences (56.3%), and among female students, it was clinical medical sciences (53.6%). Although all the students responded to their preferred specialty, only 178 students specified the subject of their interest. General surgery (23.4%), pediatrics (23.4%), and anatomy (2.4%) were the most favored subjects for postgraduation among clinical surgical, clinical medical, and basic medical sciences specialties, respectively. More common reasons for selection of specific subject for future career were found to be: personal interests, good income, intellectual challenge, and others. Many students preferred clinical surgical sciences for their future specialization. Among the reasons for the selection of the specialty for postgraduation, no significant reason could be elicited from the present study.

Effects of sources of variability on sample sizes required for RCTs, applied to trials of lipid-altering therapies on carotid artery intima-media thickness.

PubMed

Gould, A Lawrence; Koglin, Joerg; Bain, Raymond P; Pinto, Cathy-Anne; Mitchel, Yale B; Pasternak, Richard C; Sapre, Aditi

2009-08-01

Studies measuring progression of carotid artery intima-media thickness (cIMT) have been used to estimate the effect of lipid-modifying therapies cardiovascular event risk. The likelihood that future cIMT clinical trials will detect a true treatment effect is estimated by leveraging results from prior studies. The present analyses assess the impact of between- and within-study variability based on currently published data from prior clinical studies on the likelihood that ongoing or future cIMT trials will detect the true treatment effect of lipid-modifying therapies. Published data from six contemporary cIMT studies (ASAP, ARBITER 2, RADIANCE 1, RADIANCE 2, ENHANCE, and METEOR) including data from a total of 3563 patients were examined. Bayesian and frequentist methods were used to assess the impact of between study variability on the likelihood of detecting true treatment effects on 1-year cIMT progression/regression and to provide a sample size estimate that would specifically compensate for the effect of between-study variability. In addition to the well-described within-study variability, there is considerable between-study variability associated with the measurement of annualized change in cIMT. Accounting for the additional between-study variability decreases the power for existing study designs. In order to account for the added between-study variability, it is likely that future cIMT studies would require a large increase in sample size in order to provide substantial probability (> or =90%) to have 90% power of detecting a true treatment effect.Limitation Analyses are based on study level data. Future meta-analyses incorporating patient-level data would be useful for confirmation. Due to substantial within- and between-study variability in the measure of 1-year change of cIMT, as well as uncertainty about progression rates in contemporary populations, future study designs evaluating the effect of new lipid-modifying therapies on atherosclerotic disease progression are likely to be challenged by large sample sizes in order to demonstrate a true treatment effect.

To What Extent Does Participation in Extracurricular Music Affect the Future Aspirations of 11-12-Year-Olds? A Small-Scale Investigation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Denny, Eleanor

2007-01-01

I undertook this project as a 12-year-old student while studying research methods at the Children's Research Centre at the Open University. It has already been shown that doing music improves children's Mathematics and English scores. The aim of this study was to find out if it also raises the aspirations of the children taking part. A…

Applications for Micrographics in Large Scale Information Systems of the Future. Volume I: Part I. Summary. Part II. Five-Year Plan for DDC Micrographic Development Actions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Information Dynamics Corp., Reading, MA.

A study intended to provide the Defense Documentation Center (DDC) with a five-year plan for the development of improved and new microfiche products, services, and production capabilities is summarized in this report. In addition, the major findings, conclusions, and recommendations developed during the study are noted. The results of the research…

Chronic inflammation as a determinant of future aging phenotypes.

PubMed

Akbaraly, Tasnime N; Hamer, Mark; Ferrie, Jane E; Lowe, Gordon; Batty, G David; Hagger-Johnson, Gareth; Singh-Manoux, Archana; Shipley, Martin J; Kivimäki, Mika

2013-11-05

The importance of chronic inflammation as a determinant of aging phenotypes may have been underestimated in previous studies that used a single measurement of inflammatory markers. We assessed inflammatory markers twice over a 5-year exposure period to examine the association between chronic inflammation and future aging phenotypes in a large population of men and women. We obtained data for 3044 middle-aged adults (28.2% women) who were participating in the Whitehall II study and had no history of stroke, myocardial infarction or cancer at our study's baseline (1997-1999). Interleukin-6 was measured at baseline and 5 years earlier. Cause-specific mortality, chronic disease and functioning were ascertained from hospital data, register linkage and clinical examinations. We used these data to create 4 aging phenotypes at the 10-year follow-up (2007-2009): successful aging (free of major chronic disease and with optimal physical, mental and cognitive functioning), incident fatal or nonfatal cardiovascular disease, death from noncardiovascular causes and normal aging (all other participants). Of the 3044 participants, 721 (23.7%) met the criteria for successful aging at the 10-year follow-up, 321 (10.6%) had cardiovascular disease events, 147 (4.8%) died from noncardiovascular causes, and the remaining 1855 (60.9%) were included in the normal aging phenotype. After adjustment for potential confounders, having a high interleukin-6 level (> 2.0 ng/L) twice over the 5-year exposure period nearly halved the odds of successful aging at the 10-year follow-up (odds ratio [OR] 0.53, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.38-0.74) and increased the risk of future cardiovascular events (OR 1.64, 95% CI 1.15-2.33) and noncardiovascular death (OR 2.43, 95% CI 1.58-3.80). Chronic inflammation, as ascertained by repeat measurements, was associated with a range of unhealthy aging phenotypes and a decreased likelihood of successful aging. Our results suggest that assessing long-term chronic inflammation by repeat measurement of interleukin-6 has the potential to guide clinical practice.

New educational tools to encourage high-school students' activity in stem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayorova, Vera; Grishko, Dmitriy; Leonov, Victor

2018-01-01

Many students have to choose their future profession during their last years in the high school and therefore to choose a university where they will get proper education. That choice may define their professional life for many years ahead or probably for the rest of their lives. Bauman Moscow State Technical University conducts various events to introduce future professions to high-school students. Such activity helps them to pick specialization in line with their interests and motivates them to study key scientific subjects. The paper focuses on newly developed educational tools to encourage high school students' interest in STEM disciplines. These tools include laboratory courses developed in the fields of physics, information technologies and mathematics. More than 2000 high school students already participated in these experimental courses. These activities are aimed at increasing the quality of STEM disciplines learning which will result in higher quality of training of future engineers.

Which symptom assessments and approaches are uniquely appropriate for paediatric concussion?

PubMed

Gioia, G A; Schneider, J C; Vaughan, C G; Isquith, P K

2009-05-01

To (a) identify post-concussion symptom scales appropriate for children and adolescents in sports; (b) review evidence for reliability and validity; and (c) recommend future directions for scale development. Quantitative and qualitative literature review of symptom rating scales appropriate for children and adolescents aged 5 to 22 years. Literature identified via search of Medline, Ovid-Medline and PsycInfo databases; review of reference lists in identified articles; querying sports concussion specialists. 29 articles met study inclusion criteria. 5 symptom scales examined in 11 studies for ages 5-12 years and in 25 studies for ages 13-22. 10 of 11 studies for 5-12-year-olds presented validity evidence for three scales; 7 studies provided reliability evidence for two scales; 7 studies used serial administrations but no reliable change metrics. Two scales included parent-reports and one included a teacher report. 24 of 25 studies for 13-22 year-olds presented validity evidence for five measures; seven studies provided reliability evidence for four measures with 18 studies including serial administrations and two examining Reliable Change. Psychometric evidence for symptom scales is stronger for adolescents than for younger children. Most scales provide evidence of concurrent validity, discriminating concussed and non-concussed groups. Few report reliability and evidence for validity is narrow. Two measures include parent/teacher reports. Few scales examine reliable change statistics, limiting interpretability of temporal changes. Future studies are needed to fully define symptom scale psychometric properties with the greatest need in younger student-athletes.

Software production methodology tested project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tausworthe, R. C.

1976-01-01

The history and results of a 3 1/2-year study in software development methodology are reported. The findings of this study have become the basis for DSN software development guidelines and standard practices. The article discusses accomplishments, discoveries, problems, recommendations and future directions.

Three Thousand Futures. The Next Twenty Years for Higher Education. Final Report of the Carnegie Council on Policy Studies in Higher Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carnegie Council on Policy Studies in Higher Education, Berkeley, CA.

In this look at the near future of higher education, and in light of probable declining enrollments and resources, two perspectives are given, both drawn from existing literature. The first sets forth some of the fears of higher education professionals in one possible, if extreme, scenario; the second, some of their hopes in another. Among the…

AIDS Health Locus of Control, Self-Efficacy for Safer Sexual Practices, and Future Time Orientation as Predictors of Condom Use in African American College Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burns, Myron J.; Dillon, Frank R.

2005-01-01

This study examined the relationship between self-reported frequency of condom use (by self or partner during the past 6 months and lifetime), locus of control, self-efficacy, and future time orientation among African American college students who were single and sexually active during the past year. Data were collected from 106 undergraduate…

Monitoring the Future. National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2009. Volume II, College Students & Adults Ages 19-50. NIH Publication Number 10-7585

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Schulenberg, John E.

2010-01-01

Now in its 35th year, Monitoring the Future (MTF) is a long-term program of research conducted at the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research under a series of investigator-initiated research grants from the National Institute on Drug Abuse. The study is comprised of several ongoing series of annual surveys of nationally…

Monitoring the Future: National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2006. Volume II: College Students & Adults Ages 19-25. NIH Publication No. 07-6206

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Schulenberg, John E.

2007-01-01

Monitoring the Future is a long-term program of research being conducted at the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research under a series of investigator-initiated research grants from the National Institute on Drug Abuse. Now in its 32nd year, the study is comprised of several ongoing series of annual surveys of nationally…

50 CFR Table 33 to Part 679 - Annual Apportion of Amendment 80 Species ITAC Between the Amendment 80 and BSAI Trawl Limited...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 90 10 Aleutian Islands Pacific ocean perch 543 All years 98 2 542 2008 95 5 2009 and all future years 90 10 541 2008 95 5 2009 and all future years 90 10 Pacific cod BSAI All years 13.4 N/A Rock sole...

50 CFR Table 33 to Part 679 - Annual Apportion of Amendment 80 Species ITAC Between the Amendment 80 and BSAI Trawl Limited...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 90 10 Aleutian Islands Pacific ocean perch 543 All years 98 2 542 2008 95 5 2009 and all future years 90 10 541 2008 95 5 2009 and all future years 90 10 Pacific cod BSAI All years 13.4 N/A Rock sole...

50 CFR Table 33 to Part 679 - Annual Apportion of Amendment 80 Species ITAC Between the Amendment 80 and BSAI Trawl Limited...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 90 10 Aleutian Islands Pacific ocean perch 543 All years 98 2 542 2008 95 5 2009 and all future years 90 10 541 2008 95 5 2009 and all future years 90 10 Pacific cod BSAI All years 13.4 N/A Rock sole...

50 CFR Table 33 to Part 679 - Annual Apportion of Amendment 80 Species ITAC Between the Amendment 80 and BSAI Trawl Limited...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 90 10 Aleutian Islands Pacific ocean perch 543 All years 98 2 542 2008 95 5 2009 and all future years 90 10 541 2008 95 5 2009 and all future years 90 10 Pacific cod BSAI All years 13.4 N/A Rock sole...

Transition to Adult Care for Youth with Type 1 Diabetes

PubMed Central

Garvey, Katharine C.; Markowitz, Jessica T.

2014-01-01

Emerging adults with type 1 diabetes are at risk for poor glycemic control, gaps in medical care, and adverse health outcomes. With the increasing incidence in type 1 diabetes in the pediatric population, there will be an increase in the numbers of teens and young adults transferring their care from pediatric providers to adult diabetes services in the future. In recent years, the topic of transitioning pediatric patients with type 1 diabetes to adult diabetes care has been discussed at length in the literature and there have been many observational studies. However, there are few interventional studies and, to date, no randomized clinical trials. This paper discusses the rationale for studying this important area. We review both observational and interventional literature over the past several years, with a focus on new research. In addition, important areas for future research are outlined. PMID:22922877

Who Provides Care? A Prospective Study of Caregiving Among Adult Siblings

PubMed Central

Pillemer, Karl; Suitor, J. Jill

2014-01-01

Purpose: We use data from a longitudinal, within-family study to identify factors that predict which adult siblings assumed caregiving responsibilities to older mothers over a 7-year period. Design and Methods: Data for the study were collected from 139 older mothers at 2 points 7 years apart regarding their expectations and experiences of care from 537 adult children. Results: Children whom mothers identified at T1 as their expected future caregivers were much more likely to provide care when a serious illness occurred. Caregiving offspring were also more likely at T1 to have shared their mothers’ values, lived in proximity, and to be daughters. Implications: The findings indicate the degree to which a mother’s expectations for care predict actual caregiving by that child. Practitioners working with older adults should explore parents’ expectations for future care that involves their adult children. PMID:23840019

Slightly increased BMI at young age is a risk factor for future hypertension in Japanese men

PubMed Central

Tamura, Yoshifumi; Kohmura, Yoshimitsu; Aoki, Kazuhiro; Kawai, Sachio; Daida, Hiroyuki

2018-01-01

Background Hypertension is developed easily in Asian adults with normal body mass index (BMI) (~23 kg/m2), compared with other ethnicities with similar BMI. This study tested the hypothesis that slightly increased BMI at young age is a risk factor for future hypertension in Japanese men by historical cohort study. Methods The study participants were 636 male alumni of the physical education school. They had available data on their physical examination at college age and follow-up investigation between 2007 and 2011. The participants were categorized into six categories: BMI at college age of <20.0 kg/m2, 20.0–21.0kg/m2, 21.0–22.0kg/m2, 22.0–23.0kg/m2, 23.0–24.0kg/m2, and ≥24.0kg/m2, and the incidence of hypertension was compared. Results This study covered 27-year follow-up period (interquartile range: IQR: 23–31) which included 17,059 person-years of observation. Subjects were 22 (22–22) years old at graduated college, and 49 (45–53) years old at first follow-up investigation. During the period, 120 men developed hypertension. The prevalence rates of hypertension for lowest to highest BMI categories were 9.4%, 14.6%, 16.1%, 17.5%, 30.3%, and 29.3%, respectively (p<0.001 for trend), and their hazard ratios were 1.00 (reference), 1.80 (95%CI: 0.65–4.94), 2.17 (0.83–5.64), 2.29 (0.89–5.92), 3.60 (1.37–9.47) and 4.72 (1.78–12.48), respectively (p<0.001 for trend). This trend was similar after adjustment for age, year of graduation, smoking, current exercise status and current dietary intake. Conclusion Slightly increased BMI at young age is a risk factor for future hypertension in Japanese men. PMID:29324821

Estimating current and future global urban domestic material consumption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baynes, Timothy Malcolm; Kaviti Musango, Josephine

2018-06-01

Urban material resource requirements are significant at the global level and these are expected to expand with future urban population growth. However, there are no global scale studies on the future material consumption of urban areas. This paper provides estimates of global urban domestic material consumption (DMC) in 2050 using three approaches based on: current gross statistics; a regression model; and a transition theoretic logistic model. All methods use UN urban population projections and assume a simple ‘business-as-usual’ scenario wherein historical aggregate trends in income and material flow continue into the future. A collation of data for 152 cities provided a year 2000 world average DMC/capita estimate, 12 tons/person/year (±22%), which we combined with UN population projections to produce a first-order estimation of urban DMC at 2050 of ~73 billion tons/year (±22%). Urban DMC/capita was found to be significantly correlated (R 2 > 0.9) to urban GDP/capita and area per person through a power law relation used to obtain a second estimate of 106 billion tons (±33%) in 2050. The inelastic exponent of the power law indicates a global tendency for relative decoupling of direct urban material consumption with increasing income. These estimates are global and influenced by the current proportion of developed-world cities in the global population of cities (and in our sample data). A third method employed a logistic model of transitions in urban DMC/capita with regional resolution. This method estimated global urban DMC to rise from approximately 40 billion tons/year in 2010 to ~90 billion tons/year in 2050 (modelled range: 66–111 billion tons/year). DMC/capita across different regions was estimated to converge from a range of 5–27 tons/person/year in the year 2000 to around 8–17 tons/person/year in 2050. The urban population does not increase proportionally during this period and thus the global average DMC/capita increases from ~12 to ~14 tons/person/year, challenging resource decoupling targets.

Social deprivation influences the epidemiology and outcome of proximal humeral fractures in adults for a defined urban population of Scotland.

PubMed

Clement, N D; McQueen, M M; Court-Brown, C M

2014-10-01

We present the epidemiology and incidence of proximal humeral fractures over a 17-year period for a defined urban population that represents approximately 13% of the population in Scotland, and functional outcome in relation to the socio-economic status of the patient. The incidence of proximal humeral fractures significantly increased during the study period from 47.9/10(5)/year to 98.7/10(5)/year in 2008 (p < 0.0001), which was greatest for the most socially deprived patients reaching 274.2/10(5)/year in 2008 (p < 0.0001). The most deprived patients sustained their fracture 4 years earlier than the most affluent patients (p = 0.026). Social deprivation was an independent predictor, after adjusting for other confounding variables using multivariable regression analysis, of a significantly worse functional outcome according to the Constant score at 1 year (p = 0.046). Preventative measures, especially for the most socially deprived patients within society, need to be instigated urgently to address the increasing incidence of proximal humeral fractures and alleviate the burden of these morbid fractures in the future. Whether the observed increased incidence is generalisable to a national population would need to be confirmed in future studies.

Global Climate Model Simulated Hydrologic Droughts and Floods in the Nelson-Churchill Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vieira, M. J. F.; Stadnyk, T. A.; Koenig, K. A.

2014-12-01

There is uncertainty surrounding the duration, magnitude and frequency of historical hydroclimatic extremes such as hydrologic droughts and floods prior to the observed record. In regions where paleoclimatic studies are less reliable, Global Climate Models (GCMs) can provide useful information about past hydroclimatic conditions. This study evaluates the use of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) GCMs to enhance the understanding of historical droughts and floods across the Canadian Prairie region in the Nelson-Churchill Watershed (NCW). The NCW is approximately 1.4 million km2 in size and drains into Hudson Bay in Northern Manitoba, Canada. One hundred years of observed hydrologic records show extended dry and wet periods in this region; however paleoclimatic studies suggest that longer, more severe droughts have occurred in the past. In Manitoba, where hydropower is the primary source of electricity, droughts are of particular interest as they are important for future resource planning. Twenty-three GCMs with daily runoff are evaluated using 16 metrics for skill in reproducing historic annual runoff patterns. A common 56-year historic period of 1950-2005 is used for this evaluation to capture wet and dry periods. GCM runoff is then routed at a grid resolution of 0.25° using the WATFLOOD hydrological model storage-routing algorithm to develop streamflow scenarios. Reservoir operation is naturalized and a consistent temperature scenario is used to determine ice-on and ice-off conditions. These streamflow simulations are compared with the historic record to remove bias using quantile mapping of empirical distribution functions. GCM runoff data from pre-industrial and future projection experiments are also bias corrected to obtain extended streamflow simulations. GCM streamflow simulations of more than 650 years include a stationary (pre-industrial) period and future periods forced by radiative forcing scenarios. Quantile mapping adjusts for magnitude only while maintaining the GCM's sequencing of events, allowing for the examination of differences in historic and future hydroclimatic extremes. These bias corrected streamflow scenarios provide an alternative to stochastic simulations for hydrologic data analysis and can aid future resource planning and environmental studies.

Projecting diabetes prevalence among Mexicans aged 50 years and older: the Future Elderly Model-Mexico (FEM-Mexico).

PubMed

Gonzalez-Gonzalez, Cesar; Tysinger, Bryan; Goldman, Dana P; Wong, Rebeca

2017-10-25

Diabetes has been growing as a major health problem and a significant burden on the population and on health systems of developing countries like Mexico that are also ageing fast. The goal of the study was to estimate the future prevalence of diabetes among Mexico's older adults to assess the current and future health and economic burden of diabetes. A simulation study using longitudinal data from three waves (2001, 2003 and 2012) of the Mexican Health and Aging Study and adapting the Future Elderly Model to simulate four scenarios of hypothetical interventions that would reduce diabetes incidence and to project the future diabetes prevalence rates among populations 50 years and older. Data from 14 662 participants with information on self-reported diabetes, demographic characteristics, health and mortality. We obtained, for each scenario of diabetes incidence reduction, the following summary measures for the population aged 50 and older from 2012 to 2050: prevalence of diabetes, total population with diabetes, number of medical visits. In 2012, there were approximately 20.7 million persons aged 50 and older in Mexico; 19.3% had been diagnosed with diabetes and the 2001-2003 diabetes incidence was 4.3%. The no-intervention scenario shows that the prevalence of diabetes is projected to increase from 19.3% in 2012 to 34.0% in 2050. Under the 30% incidence reduction scenario, the prevalence of diabetes will be 28.6% in 2050. Comparing the no-intervention scenario with the 30% and 60% diabetes incidence reduction scenarios, we estimate a total of 816 320 and 1.6 million annual averted cases of diabetes, respectively, for the year 2020. Our study underscores the importance of diabetes as a disease by itself and also the potential healthcare demands and social burden of this disease and the need for policy interventions to reduce diabetes prevalence. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Precipitation event tracking reveals that precipitation characteristics respond differently under seasonal, interannual, and anthropogenic forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, C.; Chang, W.; Kong, W.; Wang, J.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Stein, M.; Moyer, E. J.

2017-12-01

Change in precipitation characteristics is an especially concerning potential impact of climate change, and both model and observational studies suggest that increases in precipitation intensity are likely. However, studies to date have focused on mean accumulated precipitation rather than on the characteristics of individual events. We report here on a study using a novel rainstorm identification tracking algorithm (Chang et al. 2016) that allows evaluating changes in spatio-temporal characteristics of events. We analyze high-resolution precipitation from dynamically downscaled regional climate simulations over the continental U.S. (WRF driven by CCSM4) of present and future climate conditions. We show that precipitation events show distinct characteristic changes for natural seasonal and interannual variations and for anthropogenic greenhouse-gas forcing. In all cases, wetter seasons/years/future climate states are associated with increased precipitation intensity, but other precipitation characteristics respond differently to the different drivers. For example, under anthropogenic forcing, future wetter climate states involve smaller individual event sizes (partially offsetting their increased intensity). Under natural variability, however, wetter years involve larger mean event sizes. Event identification and tracking algorithms thus allow distinguishing drivers of different types of precipitation changes, and in relating those changes to large-scale processes.

Lower extremity injuries in runners. Advances in prediction.

PubMed

Macera, C A

1992-01-01

Recreational and competitive running is practised by many individuals to improve cardiorespiratory function and general well-being. The major negative aspect of running is the high rate of injuries to the lower extremities. Several well-designed population-based studies have found no major differences in injury rates between men and women; no increasing effect of age on injuries; a declining injury rate with more years of running experience; no substantial effect of weight or height; an uncertain effect of psychological factors; and a strong effect of previous injury on future injuries. Among the modifiable risk factors studied, weekly distance is the strongest predictor of future injuries. Other training characteristics (speed, frequency, surface, timing) have little or no effect on future injuries after accounting for distance run. More studies are needed to address the effects of appropriate stretching practices and abrupt change in training patterns. For recreational runners who have sustained injuries, especially within the past year, a reduction in running to below 32 km per week is recommended. For those about to begin a running programme, moderation is the best advice. For competitive runners, great care should be taken to ensure that prior injuries are sufficiently healed before attempting any racing event, particularly a marathon.

The impact of breast cancer knowledge and attitudes on screening and early detection among an immigrant Iranian population in southern California

PubMed Central

Kobeissi, Loulou; Samari, Goleen; Telesca, Donatello; Esfandiari, Mahtash; Galal, Osman

2014-01-01

Background Few studies explore factors influencing breast cancer screening and early detection behaviors among immigrant Iranian women residing in the United States. Methods Using a cross-sectional survey, a convenience sample of 319 Iranian-American women was selected to explore the impact of breast cancer knowledge and attitude on screening. A self-administered questionnaire assessed: breast cancer screening knowledge, attitude, and mammography use (ever, previous year and future intention). Results 79 % of the women in the study reported ever-receiving at least one mammogram and 74 % received a mammogram in the past year. Personal attitude had an independent significant effect on: mammography use in the last year, ever use of mammography and future intention to screen. Knowledge and morality-induced attitude influenced screening behavior but not significantly. Conclusion Interventions targeting breast cancer screening among immigrant Iranian women in the US should focus on enhancing personal attitudes in order to influence actual screening behavior. PMID:24096382

Past and future drought in Mongolia.

PubMed

Hessl, Amy E; Anchukaitis, Kevin J; Jelsema, Casey; Cook, Benjamin; Byambasuren, Oyunsanaa; Leland, Caroline; Nachin, Baatarbileg; Pederson, Neil; Tian, Hanqin; Hayles, Laia Andreu

2018-03-01

The severity of recent droughts in semiarid regions is increasingly attributed to anthropogenic climate change, but it is unclear whether these moisture anomalies exceed those of the past and how past variability compares to future projections. On the Mongolian Plateau, a recent decade-long drought that exceeded the variability in the instrumental record was associated with economic, social, and environmental change. We evaluate this drought using an annual reconstruction of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) spanning the last 2060 years in concert with simulations of past and future drought through the year 2100 CE. We show that although the most recent drought and pluvial were highly unusual in the last 2000 years, exceeding the 900-year return interval in both cases, these events were not unprecedented in the 2060-year reconstruction, and events of similar duration and severity occur in paleoclimate, historical, and future climate simulations. The Community Earth System Model (CESM) ensemble suggests a drying trend until at least the middle of the 21st century, when this trend reverses as a consequence of elevated precipitation. Although the potential direct effects of elevated CO 2 on plant water use efficiency exacerbate uncertainties about future hydroclimate trends, these results suggest that future drought projections for Mongolia are unlikely to exceed those of the last two millennia, despite projected warming.

Past and future drought in Mongolia

PubMed Central

Hessl, Amy E.; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Jelsema, Casey; Cook, Benjamin; Byambasuren, Oyunsanaa; Leland, Caroline; Nachin, Baatarbileg; Pederson, Neil; Tian, Hanqin; Hayles, Laia Andreu

2018-01-01

The severity of recent droughts in semiarid regions is increasingly attributed to anthropogenic climate change, but it is unclear whether these moisture anomalies exceed those of the past and how past variability compares to future projections. On the Mongolian Plateau, a recent decade-long drought that exceeded the variability in the instrumental record was associated with economic, social, and environmental change. We evaluate this drought using an annual reconstruction of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) spanning the last 2060 years in concert with simulations of past and future drought through the year 2100 CE. We show that although the most recent drought and pluvial were highly unusual in the last 2000 years, exceeding the 900-year return interval in both cases, these events were not unprecedented in the 2060-year reconstruction, and events of similar duration and severity occur in paleoclimate, historical, and future climate simulations. The Community Earth System Model (CESM) ensemble suggests a drying trend until at least the middle of the 21st century, when this trend reverses as a consequence of elevated precipitation. Although the potential direct effects of elevated CO2 on plant water use efficiency exacerbate uncertainties about future hydroclimate trends, these results suggest that future drought projections for Mongolia are unlikely to exceed those of the last two millennia, despite projected warming. PMID:29546236

Imagining the Future: Perspectives Among Youth and Caregivers in the Trans Youth Family Study

PubMed Central

Katz-Wise, Sabra L.; Budge, Stephanie L.; Orovecz, Joe J.; Nguyen, Bradford; Nava-Coulter, Brett; Thomson, Katharine

2016-01-01

Future perspectives of transgender youth and their caregivers may be shaped by knowledge of discrimination and adverse mental health among transgender adults. Qualitative data from the Trans Youth Family Study were used to examine how transgender and gender nonconforming (TGN) youth and their caregivers imagine the youth's future. A community-based sample of 16 families (16 TGN youth, ages 7-18 years, and 29 caregivers) was recruited from two regions in the United States. Participants completed in-person qualitative interviews and surveys. Interview transcripts were analyzed using grounded theory methodology for coding procedures. Analyses yielded 104 higher order themes across 45 interviews, with eight prominent themes: comparing experiences with others, gender affirming hormones, gender affirming surgery, gender norms, questioning whether the youth is really transgender, expectations for romantic relationships, uncertainty about the future, and worries about physical and emotional safety. A conceptual model of future perspectives in TGN youth and caregivers is presented and clinical implications are discussed. PMID:28068129

Probabilistic Methodology for Estimation of Number and Economic Loss (Cost) of Future Landslides in the San Francisco Bay Region, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crovelli, Robert A.; Coe, Jeffrey A.

2008-01-01

The Probabilistic Landslide Assessment Cost Estimation System (PLACES) presented in this report estimates the number and economic loss (cost) of landslides during a specified future time in individual areas, and then calculates the sum of those estimates. The analytic probabilistic methodology is based upon conditional probability theory and laws of expectation and variance. The probabilistic methodology is expressed in the form of a Microsoft Excel computer spreadsheet program. Using historical records, the PLACES spreadsheet is used to estimate the number of future damaging landslides and total damage, as economic loss, from future landslides caused by rainstorms in 10 counties of the San Francisco Bay region in California. Estimates are made for any future 5-year period of time. The estimated total number of future damaging landslides for the entire 10-county region during any future 5-year period of time is about 330. Santa Cruz County has the highest estimated number of damaging landslides (about 90), whereas Napa, San Francisco, and Solano Counties have the lowest estimated number of damaging landslides (5?6 each). Estimated direct costs from future damaging landslides for the entire 10-county region for any future 5-year period are about US $76 million (year 2000 dollars). San Mateo County has the highest estimated costs ($16.62 million), and Solano County has the lowest estimated costs (about $0.90 million). Estimated direct costs are also subdivided into public and private costs.

Cargo Logistics Airlift Systems Study (CLASS). Volume 5: Summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burby, R. J.; Kuhlman, W. H.

1980-01-01

Findings and conclusions derived during the study of freighter aircraft requirements to the year 2008 are summarized. These results represent the stepping off point for the much needed coordinated planning efforts by government agencies, the airlines, the users, and the aircraft manufacturers. The methodology utilized in the investigations is shown. The analysis of the current system encompassed evaluations of the past and current cargo markets and on sight surveys of airport and cargo terminals. The findings that resulted provided the basis for formulating the case study procedures, developing the future scenario, and developing the future cargo market demand.

Study of Air Pollution from Space Using TOMS: Challenges and Promises for Future Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bhartia, Pawan K.

2002-01-01

A series of TOMS instruments built by NASA has flown on US, Russian, and Japanese satellites in the last 24 years. These instruments are well known for producing spectacular maps of the ozone hole that forms over Antarctica each spring. However, it is less well known that these instruments also provided first evidence that space-based measurements in UV of sufficiently high precision and accuracy can provide valuable information to study global air quality. We will use the TOMS experience to highlight the promises and challenges of future space-based missions designed specifically for air quality studies.

The Next 25 Years?: Future Scenarios and Future Directions for Education and Technology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Facer, K.; Sandford, R.

2010-01-01

The educational technology research field has been at the heart of debates about the future of education for the last quarter century. This paper explores the socio-technical developments that the next 25 years might bring and the implications of such developments for educators and for educational technology research. The paper begins by outlining…

ESP v2.0: Enhanced method for exploring emission impacts of future scenarios in the United States – addressing spatial allocation

EPA Science Inventory

The Emission Scenario Projection (ESP) method produces future-year air pollutant emissions for mesoscale air quality modeling applications. We present ESP v2.0, which expands upon ESP v1.0 by spatially allocating future-year emissions to account for projected population and land ...

Is late-life dependency increasing or not? A comparison of the Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies (CFAS).

PubMed

Kingston, Andrew; Wohland, Pia; Wittenberg, Raphael; Robinson, Louise; Brayne, Carol; Matthews, Fiona E; Jagger, Carol

2017-10-07

Little is known about how the proportions of dependency states have changed between generational cohorts of older people. We aimed to estimate years lived in different dependency states at age 65 years in 1991 and 2011, and new projections of future demand for care. In this population-based study, we compared two Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies (CFAS I and CFAS II) of older people (aged ≥65 years) who were permanently registered with a general practice in three defined geographical areas (Cambridgeshire, Newcastle, and Nottingham; UK). These studies were done two decades apart (1991 and 2011). General practices provided lists of individuals to be contacted and were asked to exclude those who had died or might die over the next month. Baseline interviews were done in the community and care homes. Participants were stratified by age, and interviews occurred only after written informed consent was obtained. Information collected included basic sociodemographics, cognitive status, urinary incontinence, and self-reported ability to do activities of daily living. CFAS I was assigned as the 1991 cohort and CFAS II as the 2011 cohort, and both studies provided prevalence estimates of dependency in four states: high dependency (24-h care), medium dependency (daily care), low dependency (less than daily), and independent. Years in each dependency state were calculated by Sullivan's method. To project future demands for social care, the proportions in each dependency state (by age group and sex) were applied to the 2014 UK [corrected] population projections. Between 1991 and 2011, there were significant increases in years lived from age 65 years with low dependency (1·7 years [95% CI 1·0-2·4] for men and 2·4 years [1·8-3·1] for women) and increases with high dependency (0·9 years [0·2-1·7] for men and 1·3 years [0·5-2·1] for women). The majority of men's extra years of life were spent independent (36·3%) or with low dependency (36·3%) whereas for women the majority were spent with low dependency (58·0%), and only 4·8% were independent. There were substantial reductions in the proportions with medium and high dependency who lived in care homes, although, if these dependency and care home proportions remain constant in the future, further population ageing will require an extra 71 215 care home places by 2025. On average older men now spend 2·4 years and women 3·0 years with substantial care needs, and most will live in the community. These findings have considerable implications for families of older people who provide the majority of unpaid care, but the findings also provide valuable new information for governments and care providers planning the resources and funding required for the care of their future ageing populations. Medical Research Council (G9901400) and (G06010220), with support from the National Institute for Health Research Comprehensive Local research networks in West Anglia and Trent, UK, and Neurodegenerative Disease Research Network in Newcastle, UK. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Future Projection of Summer Extreme Precipitation from High Resolution Multi-RCMs over East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Gayoung; Park, Changyong; Cha, Dong-Hyun; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Suh, Myoung-Seok; Ahn, Joong-Bae; Min, Seung-Ki; Hong, Song-You; Kang, Hyun-Suk

2017-04-01

Recently, the frequency and intensity of natural hazards have been increasing due to human-induced climate change. Because most damages of natural hazards over East Asia have been related to extreme precipitation events, it is important to estimate future change in extreme precipitation characteristics caused by climate change. We investigate future changes in extremal values of summer precipitation simulated by five regional climate models participating in the CORDEX-East Asia project (i.e., HadGEM3-RA, RegCM4, MM5, WRF, and GRIMs) over East Asia. 100-year return value calculated from the generalized extreme value (GEV) parameters is analysed as an indicator of extreme intensity. In the future climate, the mean values as well as the extreme values of daily precipitation tend to increase over land region. The increase of 100-year return value can be significantly associated with the changes in the location (intensity) and scale (variability) GEV parameters for extreme precipitation. It is expected that the results of this study can be used as fruitful references when making the policy of disaster management. Acknowledgements The research was supported by the Ministry of Public Safety and Security of Korean government and Development program under grant MPSS-NH-2013-63 and the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning of Korea (NRF-2016M3C4A7952637) for its support and assistant in completion of the study.

Correlates of adiposity among Latino preschool children

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Childhood obesity is at record high levels in the US and disproportionately affects Latino children; however, studies examining Latino preschool children's obesity-related risk factors are sparse. This study determined correlates of Latino preschoolers' (ages 3-5 years) adiposity to inform future ob...

Report on Catholic School Leadership: Ten Years Later

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schuttloffel, Merylann J.

2014-01-01

The current follow-up study to data first presented in 2003 and published in "Report on the Future of Catholic School Leadership," provides the comparisons, analysis, commentary, and some reflections and recommendations on the study implications; useful to individual schools and diocesan leaders.

A synoptic climatology for forest fires in the NE US and future implications for GCM simulations

Treesearch

Yan Qing; Ronald Sabo; Yiqiang Wu; J.Y. Zhu

1994-01-01

We studied surface-pressure patterns corresponding to reduced precipitation, high evaporation potential, and enhanced forest-fire danger for West Virginia, which experienced extensive forest-fire damage in November 1987. From five years of daily weather maps we identified eight weather patterns that describe distinctive flow situations throughout the year. Map patterns...

Childhood Peer Reputation as a Predictor of Competence and Symptoms 10 Years Later

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gest, Scott D.; Sesma, Arturo, Jr.; Masten, Ann S.; Tellegen, Auke

2006-01-01

This study examined the differential developmental significance of multiple domains of peer reputation in childhood for current and future competence and symptoms. Participants were 205 children from a normative school cohort who completed assessments in grades 3-6 and then again 10 years later. Through re-analysis of original data from the…

Motivation towards Medical Career Choice and Future Career Plans of Polish Medical Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gasiorowski, Jakub; Rudowicz, Elzbieta; Safranow, Krzysztof

2015-01-01

This longitudinal study aimed at investigating Polish medical students' career choice motivation, factors influencing specialty choices, professional plans and expectations. The same cohort of students responded to the same questionnaire, at the end of Year 1 and Year 6. The Chi-square, Mann-Whitney U tests and logistic regression were used in…

Access and Funding in Public Higher Education--The 2011 National Survey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Katsinas, Stephen G.; D'Amico, Mark M.; Friedel, Janice N.

2011-01-01

With current tuition increases at more than double the rate of inflation and cuts in state funding and Pell Grant programs, students and their families are being squeezed financially. The purpose of this study was to uncover access and funding issues by displaying current year and future year predictions for all access sectors including community…

Science in the Early Years. The Progress of Education Reform. Volume 15, Number 2

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brenneman, Kimberly

2014-01-01

Recent research suggests early math, science, and social studies knowledge may boost achievement for the nation's youngest students and provides a better chance at future reading success--more so even than early reading skills. This issue explores the benefits of including a strong science curriculum in the early years and includes recommendations…

Meanderbelt Dynamics of the Sacramento River, California

Treesearch

Michael D. Harvey

1989-01-01

A 160 km-long reach of Sacramento River was studied with the objective of predicting future changes in channel planform and their effects on water-surface elevations. Planform data were used to develop regression relationships between bend radius of curvature (Rc) and both short-term (5 years) and long term (90 years) lateral migration rates (MR) and migration...

Using Wikis and Blogs for Assessment in First-Year Engineering

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Elizabeth Joy; Mills, Julie Evelyn; Myers, Baden

2009-01-01

Purpose: This paper aims to examine some of the strengths and weaknesses of the use of online tools such as wikis and blogs for assessment purposes, with the aim of proposing future developments and improvements. Design/methodology/approach: The paper utilises a case study approach by examining the outcomes of a new first-year course for all…

Guidelines for Grades 9-12 Mathematics Curriculum. Toward Meeting Present and Future Needs.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peterson, Wayne, Ed.

Three sequences of coursework are detailed in the curriculum development guidelines provided in this document. The 4-year sequence, structured around problem-solving, applications, and the acquisition of theory, is designed for the college-bound student who plans to enter a mathematics-based field of study. The 3-year sequence is designed for…

Ten Years of Using Presentations at a Student Conference as a Final Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lund, Nick

2013-01-01

The final assessment for all psychology courses in the department of interdisciplinary studies, MMU Cheshire programmes, in the past 10 years has been a presentation of project work at an undergraduate conference. It is argued that this acts as an "authentic" assessment method which helps prepare students for future experiences. Alumni…

FORTY YEARS OF SCHOOL PLANT DISSERTATIONS. A REVIEW WITH SUGGESTIONS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

CLASEN, ROBERT E.

A BIBLIOGRAPHIC REVIEW OF PUBLISHED AND UNPUBLISHED DISSERTATIONS RELATED TO SCHOOL PLANTS IS COMPILED BY YEARS BEGINNING WITH STUDIES PRODUCED IN 1921 AND IS CROSS INDEXED BY TOPIC. IT REVIEWS THE SCHOOL PLANT PROBLEMS MOST INVESTIGATED BY STUDENTS. A BRIEF HISTORY OF SCHOOL BUILDING DEVELOPMENT IS PRESENTED IN LIGHT OF CORRESPONDING ECONOMIC AND…

Sustainability and Relationality within Early Childhood Care and Education Settings in Aotearoa New Zealand

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ritchie, Jenny

2013-01-01

This paper discusses one aspect of a recently completed two-year study, that of the enactment of relationality within early childhood care and education practice. The research project, "Titiro Whakamuri, Hoki Whakamua. We are the future, the present and the past: caring for self, others and the environment in early years' teaching and…

What Rural Superintendents in Ohio Value in New Teacher Candidates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Richard D., Jr.

2012-01-01

The purpose of this study was to have a better understanding of what rural superintendents are looking for in new first-year teachers, and to provide that information to future teaching candidates and colleges of education that are preparing teachers for the 21st Century classroom. Over the past twenty years, superintendents have not changed in…

Growth of a 45-year-old ponderosa pine plantation: An Arizona case study

Treesearch

Peter F. Ffolliott; Gerald J. Gottfried; Cody L. Stropki; L. J. Heidmann

2008-01-01

Information on the growth of forest plantations is necessary for planning of ecosystem-based management of the plantations. This information is also useful in validating or refining computer simulators that estimate plantation growth into the future. Such growth information has been obtained from a 45-year-old ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa)...

Hidden benefits of a peer-mentored 'Hospital Orientation Day': first-year medical students' perspectives.

PubMed

Barker, Thomas A; Ngwenya, Nothando; Morley, David; Jones, Ellen; Thomas, Cathryn P; Coleman, Jamie J

2012-01-01

Entering the clinical environment is potentially stressful for junior medical students. We evaluated first-year medical student feedback on a peer-mentored 'Hospital Orientation Day' designed to provide insight into future clinical training. Using a mixed methodology approach data were collected from first-year medical students. Responses to a questionnaire were used to develop a topic guide for focus groups held the next academic year. The questionnaire was completed by 230 first-year students and 32 second years participated in the interviews. Thematic analysis was used to draw conclusions. Analysis of questionnaire responses indicated that students gained insight into future learning. Focus groups then generated five themes: (1) entering the hospital without fear, (2) linking the present with the future, (3) understanding the culture of learning in the clinical years, (4) a 'Backstage Pass' to the clinical world and (5) peer mentors make or break the day. Using peer mentors during the Hospital Orientation Day allowed insight into future learning. We highlight the importance of student Mentors in the success of hospital orientation. To maximise the benefits for first years, we recommend a mentor selection procedure, mentor training opportunities and incentives to optimise mentor performance.

Cost-effectiveness of aortic valve replacement in the elderly: an introductory study.

PubMed

Wu, YingXing; Jin, Ruyun; Gao, Guangqiang; Grunkemeier, Gary L; Starr, Albert

2007-03-01

With increased life expectancy and improved technology, valve replacement is being offered to increasing numbers of elderly patients with satisfactory clinical results. By using standard econometric techniques, we estimated the relative cost-effectiveness of aortic valve replacement by drawing on a large prospective database at our institution. By using aortic valve replacement as an example, this introductory report paves the way to more definitive studies of these issues in the future. From 1961 to 2003, 4617 adult patients underwent aortic valve replacement at our service. These patients were provided with a prospective lifetime follow-up. As of 2005, these patients had accumulated 31,671 patient-years of follow-up (maximum 41 years) and had returned 22,396 yearly questionnaires. A statistical model was used to estimate the future life years of patients who are currently alive. In the absence of direct estimates of utility, quality-adjusted life years were estimated from New York Heart Association class. The cost-effectiveness ratio was calculated by the patient's age at surgery. The overall cost-effectiveness ratio was approximately 13,528 dollars per quality-adjusted life year gained. The cost-effectiveness ratio increased according to age at surgery, up to 19,826 dollars per quality-adjusted life year for octogenarians and 27,182 dollars per quality-adjusted life year for nonagenarians. Given the limited scope of this introductory study, aortic valve replacement is cost-effective for all age groups and is very cost-effective for all but the most elderly according to standard econometric rules of thumb.

The Association of Daily Physical Symptoms with Future Health

PubMed Central

Leger, Kate A.; Charles, Susan T.; Ayanian, John Z.; Almeida, David M.

2015-01-01

Rationale Daily physical symptoms play a critical role in health and illness experiences. Despite their daily prevalence, the ability of these symptoms to predict future health status is debated. Objective The current study examined whether physical symptom reports predict future health outcomes independent of trait measures of emotion. Methods Participants (N = 1189) who completed both Midlife in the United States (MIDUS) Surveys I and II as well as the National Study of Daily Experiences (NSDE) reported their daily physical symptoms at baseline and number of reported chronic conditions and functional disability nearly 10 years later. Results Physical symptoms at baseline significantly predicted the occurrence of chronic conditions and functional impairment at long-term follow-up, even after adjusting for self-reported affect, self-reported health, and previous health status. Conclusion Findings suggest that daily physical symptoms are unique indicators of future health status. PMID:26364011

Gender differences in social network characteristics and psychological well-being among Hong Kong Chinese: the role of future time perspective and adherence to Renqing.

PubMed

Yeung, D Y; Fung, H H; Lang, F R

2007-01-01

Gender differences in social network characteristics are well documented in the literature. Socio-emotional selectivity theory emphasizes the importance of future time perception on selection of social partners whereas cultural studies stress the roles of Renqing (relationship orientation) on social interactions. This study examined the effects of future time perspective and adherence to Renqing on social network characteristics, and their associations with psychological well-being of 321 Chinese men and women, aged 28-91 years. Results showed that adherence to Renqing partially accounted for gender differences in the number of relatives, even after controlling for the effects of extraversion and structural factors. Moreover, women, but not men, with lower adherence to Renqing and more limited future time perspective were found to be happier when they had fewer close friends in their social networks.

Studies using single-subject designs in sport psychology: 30 years of research

PubMed Central

Martin, Garry L.; Thompson, Kendra; Regehr, Kaleigh

2004-01-01

A prominent feature of behavior-analytic research has been the use of single-subject designs. We examined sport psychology journals and behavioral journals published during the past 30 years, and located 40 studies using single-subject designs to assess interventions for enhancing the performance of athletes and coaches. In this paper, we summarize that body of research, discuss its strengths and limitations, and identify areas for future research. PMID:22478434

It’s about time: How do sky surveys manage uncertainty about scientific needs many years into the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darch, Peter T.; Sands, Ashley E.

2016-06-01

Sky surveys, such as the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST), generate data on an unprecedented scale. While many scientific projects span a few years from conception to completion, sky surveys are typically on the scale of decades. This paper focuses on critical challenges arising from long timescales, and how sky surveys address these challenges.We present findings from a study of LSST, comprising interviews (n=58) and observation. Conceived in the 1990s, the LSST Corporation was formed in 2003, and construction began in 2014. LSST will commence data collection operations in 2022 for ten years.One challenge arising from this long timescale is uncertainty about future needs of the astronomers who will use these data many years hence. Sources of uncertainty include scientific questions to be posed, astronomical phenomena to be studied, and tools and practices these astronomers will have at their disposal. These uncertainties are magnified by the rapid technological and scientific developments anticipated between now and the start of LSST operations.LSST is implementing a range of strategies to address these challenges. Some strategies involve delaying resolution of uncertainty, placing this resolution in the hands of future data users. Other strategies aim to reduce uncertainty by shaping astronomers’ data analysis practices so that these practices will integrate well with LSST once operations begin.One approach that exemplifies both types of strategy is the decision to make LSST data management software open source, even now as it is being developed. This policy will enable future data users to adapt this software to evolving needs. In addition, LSST intends for astronomers to start using this software well in advance of 2022, thereby embedding LSST software and data analysis approaches in the practices of astronomers.These findings strengthen arguments for making the software supporting sky surveys available as open source. Such arguments usually focus on reuse potential of software, and enhancing replicability of analyses. In this case, however, open source software also promises to mitigate the critical challenge of anticipating the needs of future data users.

[Status and future of natural resource for Chinese materia medica].

PubMed

Ma, Xiao-jing; Guo, Juan; Tang, Jin-fu; Ma, Xiao-hui; Ma, Ying; Dai, Zhu-bo; Guo, Lan-ping; Huang, Lu-qi

2015-05-01

For thousands of years, the natural resource for Chinese materiamedica has been the foundation of the traditional Chinese medicine industry, which provides abundant medicine for human. In recent years, increasing demands and irrational exploitation led to a lot of problems such as rapid decrease of traditional Chinese herbs reserves, low quality of medicine and dismishing traditional cultures. These restricted the development of the traditional Chinese medicine. To solve these problems, scientists have done much work on investigating traditional Chinese medicine resources, exploring the metabolic pathway of bioactive ingredients, cultivating new varieties, and carrying out synthetic biology. These studies provided a theoretical basis for sustainable utilizationand future developmentof traditional Chinese medicine resources.

Unraveling the Importance of Climate Change Resilience in Planning the Future Sustainable Energy System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarroja, B.; AghaKouchak, A.; Forrest, K.; Chiang, F.; Samuelsen, S.

2017-12-01

In response to concerns regarding the environmental impacts of the current energy resource mix, significant research efforts have been focused on determining the future energy resource mix to meet emissions reduction and environmental sustainability goals. Many of these studies focus on various constraints such as costs, grid operability requirements, and environmental performance, and develop different plans for the rollout of energy resources between the present and future years. One aspect that has not yet been systematically taken into account in these planning studies, however, is the potential impacts that changing climates may have on the availability and performance of key energy resources that compose these plans. This presentation will focus on a case study for California which analyzes the impacts of climate change on the greenhouse gas emissions and renewable resource utilization of an energy resource plan developed by Energy Environmental Economics for meeting the state's year 2050 greenhouse gas goal of 80% reduction in emissions by the year 2050. Specifically, climate change impacts on three aspects of the energy system are investigated: 1) changes in hydropower generation due to altered precipitation, streamflow and runoff patterns, 2) changes in the availability of solar thermal and geothermal power plant capacity due to shifting water availability, and 3) changes in the residential and commercial electric building loads due to increased temperatures. These impacts were discovered to cause the proposed resource plan to deviate from meeting its emissions target by up to 5.9 MMT CO2e/yr and exhibit a reduction in renewable resource penetration of up to 3.1% of total electric energy. The impacts of climate change on energy system performance were found to be mitigated by increasing the flexibility of the energy system through increased storage and electric load dispatchability. Overall, this study highlights the importance of taking into account and building resilience against potential climate change impacts on the energy system in planning the future energy resource mix.

Associations between vertebral fractures, increased thoracic kyphosis, a flexed posture and falls in older adults: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

van der Jagt-Willems, Hanna C; de Groot, Maartje H; van Campen, Jos P C M; Lamoth, Claudine J C; Lems, Willem F

2015-03-28

Vertebral fractures, an increased thoracic kyphosis and a flexed posture are associated with falls. However, this was not confirmed in prospective studies. We performed a prospective cohort study to investigate the association between vertebral fractures, increased thoracic kyphosis and/or flexed posture with future fall incidents in older adults within the next year. Patients were recruited at a geriatric outpatient clinic. Vertebral fractures were evaluated on lateral radiographs of the spine with the semi-quantitative method of Genant; the degree of thoracic kyphosis was assessed with the Cobb angle. The occiput-to-wall distance was used to determine a flexed posture. Self-reported falls were prospectively registered by monthly phone contact for the duration of 12 months. Fifty-one older adults were included; mean age was 79 years (SD = 4.8). An increased thoracic kyphosis was independently associated with future falls (OR 2.13; 95% CI 1.10-4.51). Prevalent vertebral fractures had a trend towards significancy (OR 3.67; 95% CI 0.85-15.9). A flexed posture was not significantly associated with future falls. Older adults with an increased thoracic kyphosis are more likely to fall within the next year. We suggest clinical attention for underlying causes. Because patients with increased thoracic curvature of the spine might have underlying osteoporotic vertebral fractures, clinicians should be aware of the risk of a new fracture.

Assessing cost-effectiveness of bioretention on stormwater in response to climate change and urbanization for future scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Mo; Zhang, Dongqing; Adhityan, Appan; Ng, Wun Jern; Dong, Jianwen; Tan, Soon Keat

2016-12-01

Bioretention, as a popular low impact development practice, has become more important to mitigate adverse impacts on urban stormwater. However, there is very limited information regarding ensuring the effectiveness of bioretention response to uncertain future challenges, especially when taking into consideration climate change and urbanization. The main objective of this paper is to identify the cost-effectiveness of bioretention by assessing the hydrology performance under future scenarios modeling. First, the hydrology model was used to obtain peak runoff and TSS loads of bioretention with variable scales under different scenarios, i.e., different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socio-economic reference Pathways (SSPs) for 2-year and 10-year design storms in Singapore. Then, life cycle costing (LCC) and life cycle assessment (LCA) were estimated for bioretention, and the cost-effectiveness was identified under different scenarios. Our finding showed that there were different degree of responses to 2-year and 10-year design storms but the general patterns and insights deduced were similar. The performance of bioretenion was more sensitive to urbanization than that for climate change in the urban catchment. In addition, it was noted that the methodology used in this study was generic and the findings could be useful as reference for other LID practices in response to climate change and urbanization.

Is parental knowledge of their adolescent offspring's whereabouts and peer associations spuriously associated with offspring delinquency?

PubMed

Lahey, Benjamin B; Van Hulle, Carol A; D'Onofrio, Brian M; Rodgers, Joseph Lee; Waldman, Irwin D

2008-08-01

Recent studies suggest that most of what parents know about their adolescent offspring's whereabouts and companions is the result of youth disclosure, rather than information gained through active parental monitoring. This raises the possibility that parental knowledge is spuriously correlated with youth delinquency solely because the most delinquent youth disclose the least information to parents (because they have the most to hide). We tested this spurious association hypothesis using prospective data on offspring of a nationally representative sample of US women, controlling demographic and contextual covariates. In separate analyses, greater parental knowledge of their offspring's peer associations at both 12-13 years and at 14-15 years was associated with lower odds of being in the top 1 standard deviation of youth-reported delinquency at 16-17 years, controlling for delinquency at the earlier ages. The extent to which parents set limits on activities with peers at 14-15 years did not mediate or moderate the association between parental knowledge and delinquency, but it did independently predict future delinquency among adolescents living in high-risk neighborhoods. This suggests that the association between parental knowledge and future delinquency is not solely spurious; rather parental knowledge and limit setting are both meaningful predictors of future delinquency.

Ares V an Enabling Capability for Future Space Astrophysics Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stahl, H. Philip

2007-01-01

The potential capability offered by an Ares V launch vehicle completely changes the paradigm for future space astrophysics missions. This presentation examines some details of this capability and its impact on potential missions. A specific case study is presented: implementing a 6 to 8 meter class monolithic UV/Visible telescope at an L2 orbit. Additionally discussed is how to extend the mission life of such a telescope to 30 years or longer.

Monitoring the Future: National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2007. Volume II, College Students and Adults Ages 19-45, 2007. NIH Publication No. 08-6418B

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Schulenberg, John E.

2008-01-01

Monitoring the Future is a long-term program of research being conducted at the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research under a series of investigator-initiated research grants from the National Institute on Drug Abuse. Now in its 33rd year, the study is comprised of several ongoing series of annual surveys of nationally…

Monitoring the Future: National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2009. Volume II: College Students and Adults Ages 19-50. NIH Publication No. 10-7585

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Schulenberg, John E.

2010-01-01

Monitoring the Future (MTF), now in its 35th year, has become one of the nation's most relied-upon sources of information on changes taking place in licit and illicit psychoactive drug use among American adolescents, college students, young adults, and more recently, middle-aged adults. During the last three and a half decades, the study has…

Monitoring the Future: National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2008. Volume II, College Students and Adults Ages 19-50. NIH Publication No. 09-7403

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Schulenberg, John E.

2009-01-01

Monitoring the Future is a long-term program of research being conducted at the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research under a series of investigator-initiated research grants from the National Institute on Drug Abuse. Now in its 34th year, the study is comprised of several ongoing series of annual surveys of nationally…

VTE Risk assessment - a prognostic Model: BATER Cohort Study of young women.

PubMed

Heinemann, Lothar Aj; Dominh, Thai; Assmann, Anita; Schramm, Wolfgang; Schürmann, Rolf; Hilpert, Jan; Spannagl, Michael

2005-04-18

BACKGROUND: Community-based cohort studies are not available that evaluated the predictive power of both clinical and genetic risk factors for venous thromboembolism (VTE). There is, however, clinical need to forecast the likelihood of future occurrence of VTE, at least qualitatively, to support decisions about intensity of diagnostic or preventive measures. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A 10-year observation period of the Bavarian Thromboembolic Risk (BATER) study, a cohort study of 4337 women (18-55 years), was used to develop a predictive model of VTE based on clinical and genetic variables at baseline (1993). The objective was to prepare a probabilistic scheme that discriminates women with virtually no VTE risk from those at higher levels of absolute VTE risk in the foreseeable future. A multivariate analysis determined which variables at baseline were the best predictors of a future VTE event, provided a ranking according to the predictive power, and permitted to design a simple graphic scheme to assess the individual VTE risk using five predictor variables. RESULTS: Thirty-four new confirmed VTEs occurred during the observation period of over 32,000 women-years (WYs). A model was developed mainly based on clinical information (personal history of previous VTE and family history of VTE, age, BMI) and one composite genetic risk markers (combining Factor V Leiden and Prothrombin G20210A Mutation). Four levels of increasing VTE risk were arbitrarily defined to map the prevalence in the study population: No/low risk of VTE (61.3%), moderate risk (21.1%), high risk (6.0%), very high risk of future VTE (0.9%). In 10.6% of the population the risk assessment was not possible due to lacking VTE cases. The average incidence rates for VTE in these four levels were: 4.1, 12.3, 47.2, and 170.5 per 104 WYs for no, moderate, high, and very high risk, respectively. CONCLUSION: Our prognostic tool - containing clinical information (and if available also genetic data) - seems to be worthwhile testing in medical practice in order to confirm or refute the positive findings of this study. Our cohort study will be continued to include more VTE cases and to increase predictive value of the model.

Social Studies Education: From Nation Building to Global Citizen.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barth, James L.

The field of social studies education began as a curriculum reform 75 years ago and evolved into an educational movement that responds to local, national and international citizenship requirements of people and nations around the world. Current interests in social studies include a return to integrated content and future studies, which reflect…

The future of psychiatry.

PubMed

Kecmanovic, Dusan

2012-12-01

The objective of this paper is to forecast the future of psychiatry in the first world in the next 20 years. There are no indications that psychiatry might significantly change in the near future. Yet two factors affecting today's psychiatry will most likely become more pronounced in years to come, first, the shrinking of psychiatrists' domain, and second, the declining interest in psychiatry among medical graduates.

A prospective study of mandibular trabecular bone to predict fracture incidence in women: a low-cost screening tool in the dental clinic.

PubMed

Jonasson, Grethe; Sundh, Valter; Ahlqwist, Margareta; Hakeberg, Magnus; Björkelund, Cecilia; Lissner, Lauren

2011-10-01

Bone structure is the key to the understanding of fracture risk. The hypothesis tested in this prospective study is that dense mandibular trabeculation predicts low fracture risk, whereas sparse trabeculation is predictive of high fracture risk. Out of 731 women from the Prospective Population Study of Women in Gothenburg with dental examinations at baseline 1968, 222 had their first fracture in the follow-up period until 2006. Mandibular trabeculation was defined as dense, mixed dense plus sparse, and sparse based on panoramic radiographs from 1968 and/or 1980. Time to fracture was ascertained and used as the dependent variable in three Cox proportional hazards regression analyses. The first analysis covered 12 years of follow-up with self-reported endpoints; the second covered 26 years of follow-up with hospital verified endpoints; and the third combined the two follow-up periods, totaling 38 years. Mandibular trabeculation was the main independent variable predicting incident fractures, with age, physical activity, alcohol consumption and body mass index as covariates. The Kaplan-Meier curve indicated a graded association between trabecular density and fracture risk. During the whole period covered, the hazard ratio of future fracture for sparse trabeculation compared to mixed trabeculation was 2.9 (95% CI: 2.2-3.8, p<0.0001), and for dense versus mixed trabeculation was 0.21 (95% CI: 0.1-0.4, p<0.0001). The trabecular pattern was a highly significant predictor of future fracture risk. Our findings imply that dentists, using ordinary dental radiographs, can identify women at high risk for future fractures at 38-54 years of age, often long before the first fracture occurs. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk identification and prediction of coal workers' pneumoconiosis in Kailuan Colliery Group in China: a historical cohort study.

PubMed

Shen, Fuhai; Yuan, Juxiang; Sun, Zhiqian; Hua, Zhengbing; Qin, Tianbang; Yao, Sanqiao; Fan, Xueyun; Chen, Weihong; Liu, Hongbo; Chen, Jie

2013-01-01

Prior to 1970, coal mining technology and prevention measures in China were poor. Mechanized coal mining equipment and advanced protection measures were continuously installed in the mines after 1970. All these improvements may have resulted in a change in the incidence of coal workers' pneumoconiosis (CWP). Therefore, it is important to identify the characteristics of CWP today and trends for the incidence of CWP in the future. A total of 17,023 coal workers from the Kailuan Colliery Group were studied. A life-table method was used to calculate the cumulative incidence rate of CWP and predict the number of new CWP patients in the future. The probability of developing CWP was estimated by a multilayer perceptron artificial neural network for each coal worker without CWP. The results showed that the cumulative incidence rates of CWP for tunneling, mining, combining, and helping workers were 31.8%, 27.5%, 24.2%, and 2.6%, respectively, during the same observation period of 40 years. It was estimated that there would be 844 new CWP cases among 16,185 coal workers without CWP within their life expectancy. There would be 273.1, 273.1, 227.6, and 69.9 new CWP patients in the next <10, 10-, 20-, and 30- years respectively in the study cohort within their life expectancy. It was identified that coal workers whose risk probabilities were over 0.2 were at high risk for CWP, and whose risk probabilities were under 0.1 were at low risk. The present and future incidence trends of CWP remain high among coal workers. We suggest that coal workers at high risk of CWP undergo a physical examination for pneumoconiosis every year, and the coal workers at low risk of CWP be examined every 5 years.

Longitudinal Associations Between Cyberbullying Involvement and Adolescent Mental Health.

PubMed

Fahy, Amanda E; Stansfeld, Stephen A; Smuk, Melanie; Smith, Neil R; Cummins, Steven; Clark, Charlotte

2016-11-01

Cyberbullying differs from face-to-face bullying and may negatively influence adolescent mental health, but there is a lack of definitive research on this topic. This study examines longitudinal associations between cyberbullying involvement and adolescent mental health. Participants were 2,480 teenagers taking part in the Olympic Regeneration in East London study. We collected information from participants when they were 12-13 years old and again 1 year later to examine links between involvement in cyberbullying and future symptoms of depression and social anxiety, and mental well-being. At baseline, 14% reported being cybervictims, 8% reported being cyberbullies, and 20% reported being cyberbully-victims in the previous year. Compared to uninvolved adolescents, cybervictims and cyberbully-victims were significantly more likely to report symptoms of depression (cybervictims: odds ratio [OR] = 1.44, 95% confidence interval [CI] [1.00, 2.06]; cyberbully-victims: OR = 1.54, 95% CI [1.13, 2.09]) and social anxiety (cybervictims: OR = 1.52, 95% CI [1.11, 2.07]; cyberbully-victims: OR = 1.44, 95% CI [1.10, 1.89]) but not below average well-being (cybervictims: relative risk ratio = 1.28, 95% CI [.86, 1.91]; cyberbully-victims: relative risk ratio = 1.38, 95% CI [.95, 1.99]) at 1 year follow-up, after adjustment for confounding factors including baseline mental health. This study emphasizes the high prevalence of cyberbullying and the potential of cybervictimization as a risk factor for future depressive symptoms, social anxiety symptoms, and below average well-being among adolescents. Future research should identify protective factors and possible interventions to reduce adolescent cyberbullying. Copyright © 2016 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Healthcare students' knowledge and opinions about the Argentinean abortion law.

PubMed

Provenzano-Castro, Belén; Oizerovich, Silvia; Stray-Pedersen, Babill

2016-03-01

Abortion is legally restricted in Argentina. Although this law is almost 100 years old, most women who meet the criteria for legal abortion are not informed of or offered this possibility within the healthcare system. Healthcare students' knowledge and opinions on abortion may influence their future practice. They may deny a woman with an unwanted pregnancy a practice to which she is legally entitled, resulting in an unsafe abortion. This study assessed knowledge and personal opinions on the abortion law among first year healthcare students in order to design adequate educational strategies. In this descriptive, analytical, cross-sectional study, structured self-administered questionnaires were administered to 781 first year medical, nursing, midwifery, and other healthcare students from the Faculty of Medicine, University of Buenos Aires from 2011 to 2013. Data were recorded anonymously in SPSS 20. Student samples were adjusted for gender and fields of study using the University statistics. Of the students, 48.8% did not know the current regulations. Most of the students thought abortion was legally restricted and failed to recognize the circumstances in which it is allowed. Over 75% of the students were pro-abortion, especially those with sexual experience. Students lack sound knowledge on the abortion law that may affect their personal lives and influence their future professional practice. It is crucial that medical schools include sexual and reproductive health issues in their curricula in order to ensure better quality healthcare services in the future. In Argentina, approximately 400,000 abortions are performed every year, many under unsafe conditions, resulting in one third of the maternal deaths for the past decade. High quality sexual and reproductive healthcare services are a key strategy to improve adolescents' and women's health, thereby lowering maternal mortality. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The cognitive bases of the development of past and future episodic cognition in preschoolers.

PubMed

Ünal, Gülten; Hohenberger, Annette

2017-10-01

The aim of this study was to use a minimalist framework to examine the joint development of past and future episodic cognition and their underlying cognitive abilities in 3- to 5-year-old Turkish preschoolers. Participants engaged in two main tasks, a what-where-when (www) task to measure episodic memory and a future prediction task to measure episodic future thinking. Three additional tasks were used for predicting children's performance in the two main tasks: a temporal language task, an executive function task, and a spatial working memory task. Results indicated that past and future episodic tasks were significantly correlated with each other even after controlling for age. Hierarchical multiple regressions showed that, after controlling for age, the www task was predicted by executive functions, possibly supporting binding of episodic information and by linguistic abilities. The future prediction task was predicted by linguistic abilities alone, underlining the importance of language for episodic past and future thinking. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Thinking about the future as a way to succeed in the present: a longitudinal study of future orientation and violent behaviors among African American youth.

PubMed

Stoddard, Sarah A; Zimmerman, Marc A; Bauermeister, José A

2011-12-01

Previous research has linked higher levels of hopelessness about one's future to violent behavior during adolescence; however, little is known about this relationship over time for adolescents. Using growth curve modeling, we tested the association between future orientation and violent behavior across the high school years of adolescence in a sample of African American youth (n = 681). Variation based on demographic characteristics (i.e., sex, SES, previous violence) was explored. At baseline, differences in violent behavior varied by demographic characteristics. Overall, violent behavior decreased with age. Higher levels of future orientation were associated with greater decreases in violent behavior over time. Demographic characteristics were not associated with change in violent behavior overtime. Our findings suggest that future orientation can act as a promotive factor for at risk African American youth. Interventions that help support the development of future goals and aspirations could play a vital role in violence prevention efforts.

My future self: Young children’s ability to anticipate and explain future states

PubMed Central

Atance, Cristina M.; Meltzoff, Andrew N.

2013-01-01

Two experiments examine preschool-aged children’s ability to anticipate physiological states of the self. One hundred and eight 3-, 4-, and 5-year-olds were presented with stories and pictorial scenes designed to evoke thought about future states such as thirst, cold, and hunger. They were asked to imagine themselves in these scenarios and to choose one item from a set of three that they would need. Only one of the items could be used to address the future state. In both experiments, developmental differences were obtained for correct item choices and types of verbal explanations. In Experiment 2, the performance of the 3- and 4-year-olds was negatively affected by introducing items that were semantically associated with the scenarios but did not address the future state, whereas the 5-year-olds’ performance was not. Results are discussed with respect to children’s understanding of the future, theory of mind, and inhibitory control skills. PMID:23956493

Fifth-year dental students' visions of leadership-A qualitative study.

PubMed

Taipale, H; Tuononen, T A; Suominen, A L

2018-04-22

Leadership skills are important in dentists' work. Leadership education already in undergraduate curriculum is noteworthy. The aim of this qualitative study was to describe dental students' visions of leadership: how they imagined they end up in leadership position, factors supporting either staying in or leaving the position and their future views. The data were gathered after participants, fifth-year dental students, attended a "Dentist as a Leader" study module. A method of empathy-based stories was utilised. Based on contrasting frame stories, students were divided into two groups and wrote essays about an imagined situation in which they either enjoyed their leadership position ("Stayers") or considered leaving it ("Leavers"). The data were analysed using the content analysis method. The reasons for ending up in a leadership position were similar in the two groups: accidentally drifting into or intentionally heading for it. Factors supporting staying or leaving the leadership position were more diverse and were divided into personal and working community levels. These factors were common and group-specific. Clinical work, personal life and the ability to improve the organisations were common factors. Good working community was a "Stayer"-specific factor. "Leaver"-specific factors included loneliness, stress and lack of public sector resources. Future career plans were similar in both groups emphasising clinical work. After having attended leadership training, dental students were able to describe their future careers and list factors supporting either staying or leaving an imagined leadership position. These factors can be utilised by organisations to develop better working environments for future dentist leaders. By recognising the factors, students themselves are able to plan their future career choices and prepare to become leaders. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Subject preferences of first- and second-year medical students for their future specialization at Chitwan Medical College and Teaching Hospital, Chitwan, Nepal – a questionnaire-based study

PubMed Central

Jha, Rajesh K; Paudel, Keshab R; Shah, Dev K; Sah, Ajit K; Basnet, Sangharshila; Sah, Phoolgen; Adhikari, Sandeep

2015-01-01

Introduction The selection of a discipline for future specialization may be an important factor for the medical students’ future career, and it is influenced by multiple factors. The interest of students in the early stages can be improved in subjects related to public health or of academic importance, as per need. Methods A questionnaire-based study was conducted among 265 first- and second-year medical students of Chitwan Medical College, Nepal to find out their subject of preference for postgraduation and the factors affecting their selection along with their interesting basic science subject. Only the responses from 232 completely filled questionnaires were analyzed. Results The preference of the students for clinical surgical (50.9%), clinical medical (45.3%), and basic medical (3.9%) sciences for postgraduation were in descending order. The most preferred specialty among male students was clinical surgical sciences (56.3%), and among female students, it was clinical medical sciences (53.6%). Although all the students responded to their preferred specialty, only 178 students specified the subject of their interest. General surgery (23.4%), pediatrics (23.4%), and anatomy (2.4%) were the most favored subjects for postgraduation among clinical surgical, clinical medical, and basic medical sciences specialties, respectively. More common reasons for selection of specific subject for future career were found to be: personal interests, good income, intellectual challenge, and others. Conclusion Many students preferred clinical surgical sciences for their future specialization. Among the reasons for the selection of the specialty for postgraduation, no significant reason could be elicited from the present study. PMID:26635491

Serbian medical students' fertility awareness and attitudes towards future parenthood.

PubMed

Vujčić, Isidora; Radičević, Tijana; Dubljanin, Eleonora; Maksimović, Nataša; Grujičić, Sandra

2017-08-01

Medical students represent a group particularly at risk of involuntary childlessness due to their highly demanding careers and university curriculum. The aim of this study was to investigate Serbian medical students' attitudes towards future parenthood and their awareness of fertility issues. A cross-sectional study was conducted among fourth year students at the Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Serbia, between 12 and 16 December 2016. Data were collected through an anonymous 56-item validated questionnaire, translated into the Serbian language. The participation rate was 87.1%. More than 95% of students, regardless of gender, wanted to have children in the future; most indicated three as the desired number of children. Both genders equally rated the importance of having children. Women rated significantly higher the likelihood of IVF treatment or child adoption if faced with infertility (both p = .001). All students wanted to have their first child before the age of 35 years. Knowledge about the age-related decline in female fertility was not satisfactory. Women found it more important to have children when they felt sufficiently mature, were in a stable relationship, were financially secure, had completed their studies, were not too old to have children, and had access to childcare, although these prerequisites were rated highly by both genders. Serbian medical students greatly value and have a positive perception of future parenthood. Appropriate education is needed, however, because of their inadequate knowledge of the age-related decline in female fertility.

Predicting Future-Year Ozone Concentrations: Integrated Observational-Modeling Approach for Probabilistic Evaluation of the Efficacy of Emission Control strategies

EPA Science Inventory

Regional-scale air quality models are being used to demonstrate attainment of the ozone air quality standard. In current regulatory applications, a regional-scale air quality model is applied for a base year and a future year with reduced emissions using the same meteorological ...

PROJECTING FUTURE-YEAR POLLUTANT EMISSIONS: EMERGING APPROACHES FROM THE EPA ORD GLOBAL CHANGE AIR QUALITY ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. EPA's Office of Research and Development is exploring approaches for assessing the relative impacts of climate and emissions changes on future-year air quality. A challenge related to this effort is the development of emissions inventories out to the year 2050. This pap...

[Saving motives in young, middle-aged, and older adults. Preliminary results of a new inventory for exploring lifespan saving motives].

PubMed

Rager, B; Lang, F R; Wagner, G G

2012-12-01

There is some research on personal reasons for saving money in the economic sciences. However, not much is known about the age differences of saving motives. In this vein, the future time perspective (FTP) is known to play a critical role for motivation across the life span. In this study, we introduce a new Saving Motive Inventory (SMI), which also covers saving goals after retirement. Furthermore, it is argued that additional saving motives that are not based on economic models of life-cycle saving also exist. In accordance with the socio-emotional selectivity theory, we explored age differences in an online survey with 496 participants from young (19-44 years), middle-aged (45-64 years), and older (65-86 years) adulthood, who completed a questionnaire on saving motives, personality, and future-related thinking (e.g., Future Time Perspective Scale, Life Orientation Test). Results of the explorative Factor Analysis (EFA) are consistent with the theoretical expectations. The factors are generativity, educational investment, consumption, indifference, and provision for death and dying. Together these five factors account for 67% of the variance. In general, the inventory is reliable and valid with respect to the expected internal and external criteria. It contributes to better understanding of saving motives over the lifespan, especially with respect to effects of the future time perspective.

Projecting temperature-related years of life lost under different climate change scenarios in one temperate megacity, China.

PubMed

Li, Yixue; Li, Guoxing; Zeng, Qiang; Liang, Fengchao; Pan, Xiaochuan

2018-02-01

Temperature has been associated with population health, but few studies have projected the future temperature-related years of life lost attributable to climate change. To project future temperature-related disease burden in Tianjin, we selected years of life lost (YLL) as the dependent variable to explore YLL attributable to climate change. A generalized linear model (GLM) and distributed lag non-linear model were combined to assess the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature on the YLL of non-accidental mortality. Then, we calculated the YLL changes attributable to future climate scenarios in 2055 and 2090. The relationships of daily mean temperature with the YLL of non-accident mortality were basically U-shaped. Both the daily mean temperature increase on high-temperature days and its drop on low-temperature days caused an increase of YLL and non-accidental deaths. The temperature-related YLL will worsen if future climate change exceeds 2 °C. In addition, the adverse effects of extreme temperature on YLL occurred more quickly than that of the overall temperature. The impact of low temperature was greater than that of high temperature. Men were vulnerable to high temperature compared with women. This analysis highlights that the government should formulate environmental policies to reach the Paris Agreement goal. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Central nervous system medication use and incident mobility limitation in community elders: the Health, Aging, and Body Composition study.

PubMed

Boudreau, Robert M; Hanlon, Joseph T; Roumani, Yazan F; Studenski, Stephanie A; Ruby, Christine M; Wright, Rollin M; Hilmer, Sarah N; Shorr, Ronald I; Bauer, Douglas C; Simonsick, Eleanor M; Newman, Anne B

2009-10-01

To evaluate whether CNS medication use in older adults was associated with a higher risk of future incident mobility limitation. This 5-year longitudinal cohort study included 3055 participants from the health, aging and body composition (Health ABC) study who were well-functioning at baseline. CNS medication use (benzodiazepine and opioid receptor agonists, antipsychotics, and antidepressants) was determined yearly (except year 4) during in-home or in-clinic interviews. Summated standardized daily doses (low, medium, and high) and duration of CNS drug use were computed. Incident mobility limitation was operationalized as two consecutive self-reports of having any difficulty walking 1/4 mile or climbing 10 steps without resting every 6 months after baseline. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard analyses were conducted adjusting for demographics, health behaviors, health status, and common indications for CNS medications. Each year at least 13.9% of participants used a CNS medication. By year 6, overall 49% had developed incident mobility limitation. In multivariable models, CNS medication users compared to never users showed a higher risk for incident mobility limitation (adjusted hazard ratio (Adj. HR) 1.28; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.12-1.47). Similar findings of increased risk were seen in analyses examining dose- and duration-response relationships. CNS medication use is independently associated with an increased risk of future incident mobility limitation in community dwelling elderly. Further studies are needed to determine the impact of reducing CNS medication exposure on mobility problems. 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Corpus callosum atrophy as a predictor of age-related cognitive and motor impairment: a 3-year follow-up of the LADIS study cohort.

PubMed

Ryberg, C; Rostrup, E; Paulson, O B; Barkhof, F; Scheltens, P; van Straaten, E C W; van der Flier, W M; Fazekas, F; Schmidt, R; Ferro, J M; Baezner, H; Erkinjuntti, T; Jokinen, H; Wahlund, L-O; Poggesi, A; Pantoni, L; Inzitari, D; Waldemar, G

2011-08-15

The aim of this 3-year follow-up study was to investigate whether corpus callosum (CC) atrophy may predict future motor and cognitive impairment in an elderly population. On baseline MRI from 563 subjects with age-related white matter changes (ARWMC) from the Leukoaraiosis And DISability (LADIS) study, the CC was segmented and subdivided into five anterior-posterior regions (CC1-CC5). Associations between the CC areas and decline in motor performance and cognitive functions over a 3-year period were analyzed. CC atrophy at baseline was significantly associated with impaired cognitive performance (p<0.01 for CC1, p<0.05 for CC5), motor function (p<0.05 for CC2 and CC5), and walking speed (p<0.01 for CC2 and CC5, p<0.05 for CC3 and total CC), and with development of dementia at 3 years (p<0.05 for CC1) after correction for appropriate confounders (ARWMC volume, atrophy, age, gender and handedness). In conclusion, CC atrophy, an indicator of reduced functional connectivity between cortical areas, seems to contribute, independently of ARWMC load, to future cognitive and motor decline in the elderly. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Family influences on future smoking habits among junior high school students in Japan].

PubMed

Wakabayashi, Chihiro

2007-11-01

To examine the effects of health-related behavior and family smoking habits on the future smoking habits of junior high school students in two Japanese cities with different life expectancies. A cross-sectional study was conducted in January 2005 of all second-grade students in a junior high school in city A located in Aomori prefecture (399 students) and city B located in Nagano prefecture (447 students). Life expectancies in city B were 4.2 years longer in men and 2.9 years longer in women than in city A. Data on feelings about future smoking habits, dislike of tobacco smoke, family smoking habits and health-related behavior were collected. The proportion of boys who went on to become smokers was higher in city A (18.7%) than in city B (10.3%). The proportions of smoking mothers and other smoking family members were also higher in city A, while the proportion of students who disliked tobacco smoke was lower. For girls in both cities, there was a significant positive association between future smoking and maternal smoking. The findings suggest that maternal smoking habits are especially strongly correlated with future smoking in girls. The family smoking environment and health-related behavior should therefore be considered in measures to prevent smoking by students.

Tracking of overweight and obesity from early childhood to adolescence in a population-based cohort - the Tromsø Study, Fit Futures.

PubMed

Evensen, Elin; Wilsgaard, Tom; Furberg, Anne-Sofie; Skeie, Guri

2016-05-10

Obesity is a serious childhood health problem today. Studies have shown that overweight and obesity tend to be stable (track) from birth, through childhood and adolescence, to adulthood. However, existing studies are heterogeneous; there is still no consensus on the strength of the association between high birth weight or high body mass index (BMI) early in life and overweight and obesity later in life, nor on the appropriate age or target group for intervention and prevention efforts. This study aimed to determine the presence and degree of tracking of overweight and obesity and development in BMI and BMI standard deviation scores (SDS) from childhood to adolescence in the Fit Futures cohort from North Norway. Using a retrospective cohort design, data on 532 adolescents from the Fit Futures cohort were supplemented with height and weight data from childhood health records, and BMI was calculated at 2-4, 5-7, and 15-17 years of age. Participants were categorized into weight classes by BMI according to the International Obesity Taskforce's age- and sex-specific cut-off values for children 2-18 years of age (thinness: adult BMI <18.5 kg/m(2), normal weight: adult BMI ≥18.5- < 25 kg/m(2), overweight: adult BMI ≥25- < 30 kg/m(2), obesity: adult BMI ≥30 kg/m(2)). Non-parametric tests, Cohen's weighted Kappa statistic and logistic regression were used in the analyses. The prevalence of overweight and obesity combined, increased from 11.5 % at 2-4 years of age and 13.7 % at 5-7 years of age, to 20.1 % at 15-17 years of age. Children who were overweight/obese at 5-7 years of age had increased odds of being overweight/obese at 15-17 years of age, compared to thin/normal weight children (crude odds ratio: 11.1, 95 % confidence interval: 6.4-19.2). Six out of 10 children who were overweight/obese at 5-7 years of age were overweight/obese at 15-17 years of age. The prevalence of overweight and obesity increased with age. We found a moderate indication of tracking of overweight/obesity from childhood to adolescence. Preventive and treatment initiatives among children at high risk of overweight and obesity should start before 5-7 years of age, but general preventive efforts targeting all children are most important.

Intended location of future career practice among graduating medical students: perspective from social cognitive career theory in Nepal.

PubMed

Sapkota, B P; Amatya, A

2013-09-01

Medical workforce shortages and mal-distributions world-wide make understanding how, where and what our future doctors wish to practice is increasingly important. Understanding of factors such as available infrastructure, provision of incentives and many others influences the decisions of doctors to leave or to stay. Therefore the strategies effective for retention, is imperative in conducting the study based on a sound theoretical framework in predicting future medical workforce needs. The study used the theoretical framework of Social Cognitive Career Theory to identify the predictors on future practice location. The study was cross-sectional descriptive in design targeting the Nepalese medical students in the final year and doing internships in Nepal. Anonymous self administered questionnaire was distributed among 480 students but 393 students were involved due to non response and incompleteness. Findings of the study were presented in frequency tables for univariate descriptive analysis and bivariate findings were presented by cross tabulation. About two thirds 259 (65.9%) of the participants had chosen within country location for future practice. Among those who had chosen within country choice, about an equal percentage of the respondents had chosen rural 131 (50.8%) and urban 128 (49.2%) location. Among those who had chosen within country for future practice location, less than one fifth of the participants had chosen private sector for future practice. Majority of the medical graduates wish to practice within country location. Most of which chose public sector for future practice. None of the SCCT construct had any significant association within country location.

Older fallers attended to by an ambulance but not transported to hospital: a vulnerable population at high risk of future falls.

PubMed

Tiedemann, Anne; Mikolaizak, A Stefanie; Sherrington, Catherine; Segin, Kerrie; Lord, Stephen R; Close, Jacqueline C T

2013-04-01

This prospective cohort study describes older non-transported fallers seen by the Ambulance Service of New South Wales (ASNSW), quantifies the level of risk and identifies predictors of future falls and ambulance use. Participants were 262 people aged 70 years or older with a fall-related ASNSW attendance who were not transported to an emergency department. They completed a questionnaire about health, medical and physical factors previously associated with falling. Falls were monitored for six months after ambulance attendance with monthly fall calendars. Participants had a high prevalence of chronic medical conditions, functional limitations and past falls. During follow-up, 145 participants (58%) experienced 488 falls. Significant predictors of falls during follow-up were three or more falls in the past year, being unable to walk more than 10 minutes without resting, and requiring assistance for personal-care activities of daily living (ADLs). Sixty-two participants (25%) required repeat, fall-related ambulance attendance during the study. Predictors of repeat ambulance use were: 3+ falls in past year, requiring assistance for personal-care ADLs and having disabling pain in past month. Older, non-transported fallers seen by the ASNSW are a vulnerable population with high rates of chronic health conditions. Onward referral for preventive interventions may reduce future falls and ambulance service calls. © 2013 The Authors. ANZJPH © 2013 Public Health Association of Australia.

Factors influencing medical students' choice of future specialization in medical sciences: a cross-sectional questionnaire survey from medical schools in china, malaysia and regions of South asian association for regional cooperation.

PubMed

Kumar, Arun; Mitra, Kasturi; Nagarajan, Sangeetha; Poudel, Bibek

2014-03-01

In future, increase in the number of healthcare professionals is dependent on the career interest among present undergraduate medical students. Based on their interest to pursue their specialty, the availability of medical doctors in each specialty could be done. This study was to find out future career interest and factors that influence undergraduate medical students to choose their future specialization. The study was carried out among first-year medical students from five countries. The students were asked to complete an 8-item questionnaire. Two thousand one hundred fifty three participants were enrolled in the study. Data were analyzed in Microsoft-Excel and Statistical Package for the Social Sciences. Of the 2153 participants, only 1470 responded. Among the 1470 participants, 169 participants were excluded due to the ambiguity in responses, finally making it to 1301participants. Among them, Anatomy (49.3%) followed by Biochemistry (26.7%) and Physiology (24%) were the most preferred subjects. Anatomy was the most preferred basic science subject among the other subjects and the students were interested to pursuing surgery in future. Furthermore, the most preferred future specialties were surgery, internal medicine and pediatrics with gender variations; males preferring surgery and females in obstetrics and gynecology.

Development and application of downscaled hydroclimatic predictor variables for use in climate vulnerability and assessment studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thorne, James; Boynton, Ryan; Flint, Lorraine; Flint, Alan; N'goc Le, Thuy

2012-01-01

This paper outlines the production of 270-meter grid-scale maps for 14 climate and derivative hydrologic variables for a region that encompasses the State of California and all the streams that flow into it. The paper describes the Basin Characterization Model (BCM), a map-based, mechanistic model used to process the hydrological variables. Three historic and three future time periods of 30 years (1911–1940, 1941–1970, 1971–2000, 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099) were developed that summarize 180 years of monthly historic and future climate values. These comprise a standardized set of fine-scale climate data that were shared with 14 research groups, including the U.S. National Park Service and several University of California groups as part of this project. We present three analyses done with the outputs from the Basin Characterization Model: trends in hydrologic variables over baseline, the most recent 30-year period; a calibration and validation effort that uses measured discharge values from 139 streamgages and compares those to Basin Characterization Model-derived projections of discharge for the same basins; and an assessment of the trends of specific hydrological variables that links historical trend to projected future change under four future climate projections. Overall, increases in potential evapotranspiration dominate other influences in future hydrologic cycles. Increased potential evapotranspiration drives decreasing runoff even under forecasts with increased precipitation, and drives increased climatic water deficit, which may lead to conversion of dominant vegetation types across large parts of the study region as well as have implications for rain-fed agriculture. The potential evapotranspiration is driven by air temperatures, and the Basin Characterization Model permits it to be integrated with a water balance model that can be derived for landscapes and summarized by watershed. These results show the utility of using a process-based model with modules representing different hydrological pathways that can be inter-linked.

Vegetation-mediated Climate Impacts on Historical and Future Ozone Air Quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tai, A. P. K.; Fu, Y.; Mickley, L. J.; Heald, C. L.; Wu, S.

2014-12-01

Changes in climate, natural vegetation and human land use are expected to significantly influence air quality in the coming century. These changes and their interactions have important ramifications for the effectiveness of air pollution control strategies. In a series of studies, we use a one-way coupled modeling framework (GEOS-Chem driven by different combinations of historical and future meteorological, land cover and emission data) to investigate the effects of climate-vegetation changes on global and East Asian ozone air quality from 30 years ago to 40 years into the future. We find that future climate and climate-driven vegetation changes combine to increase summertime ozone by 2-6 ppbv in populous regions of the US, Europe, East Asia and South Asia by year 2050, but including the interaction between CO2 and biogenic isoprene emission reduces the climate impacts by more than half. Land use change such as cropland expansion has the potential to either mostly offset the climate-driven ozone increases (e.g., in the US and Europe), or greatly increase ozone (e.g., in Southeast Asia). The projected climate-vegetation effects in East Asia are particularly uncertain, reflecting a less understood ozone production regime. We thus further study how East Asian ozone air quality has evolved since the early 1980s in response to climate, vegetation and emission changes to shed light on its likely future course. We find that warming alone has led to a substantial increase in summertime ozone in populous regions by 1-4 ppbv. Despite significant cropland expansion and urbanization, increased summertime leafiness of vegetation in response to warming and CO2 fertilization has reduced ozone by 1-2 ppbv, driven by enhanced ozone deposition dominating over elevated biogenic emission and partially offsetting the warming effect. The historical role of CO2-isoprene interaction in East Asia, however, remains highly uncertain. Our findings demonstrate the important roles of land cover and vegetation in modulating climate-chemistry interactions, and highlight aspects that warrant further investigation.

Implication of Agricultural Land Use Change on Regional Climate Projection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, G.; Ahmed, K. F.; You, L.

2015-12-01

Agricultural land use plays an important role in land-atmosphere interaction. Agricultural activity is one of the most important processes driving human-induced land use land cover change (LULCC) in a region. In addition to future socioeconomic changes, climate-induced changes in crop yield represent another important factor shaping agricultural land use. In feedback, the resulting LULCC influences the direction and magnitude of global, regional and local climate change by altering Earth's radiative equilibrium. Therefore, assessment of climate change impact on future agricultural land use and its feedback is of great importance in climate change study. In this study, to evaluate the feedback of projected land use changes to the regional climate in West Africa, we employed an asynchronous coupling between a regional climate model (RegCM) and a prototype land use projection model (LandPro). The LandPro model, which was developed to project the future change in agricultural land use and the resulting shift in natural vegetation in West Africa, is a spatially explicit model that can account for both climate and socioeconomic changes in projecting future land use changes. In the asynchronously coupled modeling framework, LandPro was run for every five years during the period of 2005-2050 accounting for climate-induced change in crop yield and socioeconomic changes to project the land use pattern by the mid-21st century. Climate data at 0.5˚ was derived from RegCM to drive the crop model DSSAT for each of the five-year periods to simulate crop yields, which was then provided as input data to LandPro. Subsequently, the land use land cover map required to run RegCM was updated every five years using the outputs from the LandPro simulations. Results from the coupled model simulations improve the understanding of climate change impact on future land use and the resulting feedback to regional climate.

The UAE healthy future study: a pilot for a prospective cohort study of 20,000 United Arab Emirates nationals.

PubMed

Abdulle, Abdishakur; Alnaeemi, Abdullah; Aljunaibi, Abdullah; Al Ali, Abdulrahman; Al Saedi, Khaled; Al Zaabi, Eiman; Oumeziane, Naima; Al Bastaki, Marina; Al-Houqani, Mohammed; Al Maskari, Fatma; Al Dhaheri, Ayesha; Shah, Syed M; Loney, Tom; El-Sadig, Mohamed; Oulhaj, Abderrahim; Wareth, Leila Abdel; Al Mahmeed, Wael; Alsafar, Habiba; Hirsch, Benjamin; Al Anouti, Fatme; Yaaqoub, Jamila; Inman, Claire K; Al Hamiz, Aisha; Al Hosani, Ayesha; Haji, Muna; Alsharid, Teeb; Al Zaabi, Thekra; Al Maisary, Fatima; Galani, Divya; Sprosen, Tim; El Shahawy, Omar; Ahn, Jiyoung; Kirchhoff, Tomas; Ramasamy, Ravichandran; Schmidt, Ann Marie; Hayes, Richard; Sherman, Scott; Ali, Raghib

2018-01-05

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is faced with a rapidly increasing burden of non-communicable diseases including obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease. The UAE Healthy Future study is a prospective cohort designed to identify associations between risk factors and these diseases amongst Emiratis. The study will enroll 20,000 UAE nationals aged ≥18 years. Environmental and genetic risk factors will be characterized and participants will be followed for future disease events. As this was the first time a prospective cohort study was being planned in the UAE, a pilot study was conducted in 2015 with the primary aim of establishing the feasibility of conducting the study. Other objectives were to evaluate the implementation of the main study protocols, and to build adequate capacity to conduct advanced clinical laboratory analyses. Seven hundred sixty nine UAE nationals aged ≥18 years were invited to participate voluntarily in the pilot study. Participants signed an informed consent, completed a detailed questionnaire, provided random blood, urine, and mouthwash samples and were assessed for a series of clinical measures. All specimens were transported to the New York University Abu Dhabi laboratories where samples were processed and analyzed for routine chemistry and hematology. Plasma, serum, and a small whole blood sample for DNA extraction were aliquoted and stored at -80 °C for future analyses. Overall, 517 Emirati men and women agreed to participate (68% response rate). Of the total participants, 495 (95.0%), 430 (82.2%), and 492 (94.4%), completed the questionnaire, physical measurements, and provided biological samples, respectively. The pilot study demonstrated the feasibility of recruitment and completion of the study protocols for the first large-scale cohort study designed to identify emerging risk factors for the major non-communicable diseases in the region.

Brief Report: Two Day-Date Processing Methods in an Autistic Savant Calendar Calculator

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

De Marco, Matteo; Iavarone, Alessandro; Santoro, Giovanna; Carlomagno, Sergio

2016-01-01

Special ability in computing the day of week for given dates was observed in a 24 year-old male (FB) diagnosed with Asperger syndrome. FB performed almost flawlessly (98.2%) both with past and future dates, over a span of 40 years. Response latency was slower as temporal remoteness of future dates increased. Within the future timespan, FB's…

Anxious or Depressed and Still Happy?

PubMed Central

Spinhoven, Philip; Elzinga, Bernet M.; Giltay, Erik; Penninx, Brenda W. J. H.

2015-01-01

This study aimed to examine cross-sectionally to what extent persons with higher symptom levels or a current or past emotional disorder report to be less happy than controls and to assess prospectively whether time-lagged measurements of extraversion and neuroticism predict future happiness independent of time-lagged measurements of emotional disorders or symptom severity. A sample of 2142 adults aged 18–65, consisting of healthy controls and persons with current or past emotional disorder according to DSM-IV criteria completed self-ratings for happiness and emotional well-being and symptom severity. Lagged measurements of personality, symptom severity and presence of anxiety and depressive disorder at T0 (year 0), T2 (year 2) and T4 (year 4) were used to predict happiness and emotional well-being at T6 (year 6) controlling for demographics. In particular persons with more depressive symptoms, major depressive disorder, social anxiety disorder and comorbid emotional disorders reported lower levels of happiness and emotional well-being. Depression symptom severity and to a lesser extent depressive disorder predicted future happiness and emotional well-being at T6. Extraversion and to a lesser extent neuroticism also consistently forecasted future happiness and emotional well-being independent of concurrent lagged measurements of emotional disorders and symptoms. A study limitation is that we only measured happiness and emotional well-being at T6 and our measures were confined to hedonistic well-being and did not include psychological and social well-being. In sum, consistent with the two continua model of emotional well-being and mental illness, a ‘happy’ personality characterized by high extraversion and to a lesser extent low neuroticism forecasts future happiness and emotional well-being independent of concurrently measured emotional disorders or symptom severity levels. Boosting positive emotionality may be an important treatment goal for persons personally inclined to lower levels of happiness. PMID:26461261

Changes in mangrove species assemblages and future prediction of the Bangladesh Sundarbans using Markov chain model and cellular automata.

PubMed

Mukhopadhyay, Anirban; Mondal, Parimal; Barik, Jyotiskona; Chowdhury, S M; Ghosh, Tuhin; Hazra, Sugata

2015-06-01

The composition and assemblage of mangroves in the Bangladesh Sundarbans are changing systematically in response to several environmental factors. In order to understand the impact of the changing environmental conditions on the mangrove forest, species composition maps for the years 1985, 1995 and 2005 were studied. In the present study, 1985 and 1995 species zonation maps were considered as base data and the cellular automata-Markov chain model was run to predict the species zonation for the year 2005. The model output was validated against the actual dataset for 2005 and calibrated. Finally, using the model, mangrove species zonation maps for the years 2025, 2055 and 2105 have been prepared. The model was run with the assumption that the continuation of the current tempo and mode of drivers of environmental factors (temperature, rainfall, salinity change) of the last two decades will remain the same in the next few decades. Present findings show that the area distribution of the following species assemblages like Goran (Ceriops), Sundari (Heritiera), Passur (Xylocarpus), and Baen (Avicennia) would decrease in the descending order, whereas the area distribution of Gewa (Excoecaria), Keora (Sonneratia) and Kankra (Bruguiera) dominated assemblages would increase. The spatial distribution of projected mangrove species assemblages shows that more salt tolerant species will dominate in the future; which may be used as a proxy to predict the increase of salinity and its spatial variation in Sundarbans. Considering the present rate of loss of forest land, 17% of the total mangrove cover is predicted to be lost by the year 2105 with a significant loss of fresh water loving mangroves and related ecosystem services. This paper describes a unique approach to assess future changes in species composition and future forest zonation in mangroves under the 'business as usual' scenario of climate change.

Relationships between problematic alcohol consumption and delinquent behaviour from adolescence to young adulthood.

PubMed

Miller, Peter G; Butler, Erin; Richardson, Ben; Staiger, Petra K; Youssef, George J; Macdonald, Jacqui A; Sanson, Ann; Edwards, Ben; Olsson, Craig A

2016-05-01

Heavy episodic drinking (HED) has been associated with increased risk for short- and long-term injury and harms, such as violence and delinquent behaviour; however, the temporal relationship between the two remains unclear, particularly on transition to young adulthood. This study investigates transactional pathways between HED and delinquent behaviour from adolescence to emerging adulthood. Data were drawn from the Australian Temperament Project; a population-based longitudinal study that has followed the health and development of participants (and parents) across 30 years from birth in 1982. The analytic sample was 1650 participants and included five measurement waves spanning adolescence (3 waves: 13-18 years) and young adulthood (2 waves; 19-24 years). There was strong continuity across waves of both HED and delinquency, as well as across-time associations between them. Delinquent behaviour in adolescence was associated with up to twofold increases in the odds of HED at each subsequent adolescent wave. HED in the late teens was associated with over fourfold increases in the odds of persistent (two waves) HED in young adulthood. HED in the late teens was associated with increases in the odds of delinquent behaviour in young adulthood (over twofold for male and one and a half-fold for female participants). While delinquent behaviour predicts both future HED and future delinquent behaviour in adolescence, once young people reach the legal drinking age of 18 years, HED becomes a predictor of current and future delinquent behaviour and future HED, suggesting that increased access to alcohol increases the likelihood of young people engaging in delinquent behaviour. [Miller PG, Butler E, Richardson B, Staiger PK, Youssef GJ, Macdonald JA, Sanson A, Edwards B, Olsson CA. Relationships between problematic alcohol consumption and delinquent behaviour from adolescence to young adulthood. Drug Alcohol Rev 2016;35:317-325]. © 2015 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

Application of Multi-Model CMIP5 Analysis in Future Drought Adaptation Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casey, M.; Luo, L.; Lang, Y.

2014-12-01

Drought influences the efficacy of numerous natural and artificial systems including species diversity, agriculture, and infrastructure. Global climate change raises concerns that extend well beyond atmospheric and hydrological disciplines - as climate changes with time, the need for system adaptation becomes apparent. Drought, as a natural phenomenon, is typically defined relative to the climate in which it occurs. Typically a 30-year reference time frame (RTF) is used to determine the severity of a drought event. This study investigates the projected future droughts over North America with different RTFs. Confidence in future hydroclimate projection is characterized by the agreement of long term (2005-2100) multi-model precipitation (P) and temperature (T) projections within the Coupled model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Drought severity and the propensity of extreme conditions are measured by the multi-scalar, probabilistic, RTF-based Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). SPI considers only P while SPEI incorporates Evapotranspiration (E) via T; comparing the two reveals the role of temperature change in future hydroclimate change. Future hydroclimate conditions, hydroclimate extremity, and CMIP5 model agreement are assessed for each Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) in regions throughout North America for the entire year and for the boreal seasons. In addition, multiple time scales of SPI and SPEI are calculated to characterize drought at time scales ranging from short to long term. The study explores a simple, standardized method for considering adaptation in future drought assessment, which provides a novel perspective to incorporate adaptation with climate change. The result of the analysis is a multi-dimension, probabilistic summary of the hydrological (P, E) environment a natural or artificial system must adapt to over time. Studies similar to this with specified criteria (SPI/SPEI value, time scale, RCP, etc.) can provide professionals in a variety of disciplines with necessary climatic insight to develop adaptation strategies.

The Effect of Industrial Training on Ethical Awareness of Final Year Students in a Malaysian Public University

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Saat, Maisarah Mohamed; Yusoff, Rosman Md.; Panatik, Siti Aisyah

2014-01-01

Studies (for example, Dellaportas in Making a difference with a discrete course on accounting ethics. "J Bus Ethics" 65(4):391-404, 2006; Saat in "An investigation of the effects of a moral education program on the ethical development of Malaysian future accountants," 2010) on final year accounting students show that industrial…

Aspirations and an Austerity State: Young People's Hopes and Goals for the Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rose, Jo; Baird, Jo-Anne

2013-01-01

Survey findings from 1701 Year 11 and Year 13 students across 35 English educational institutions are reported, which indicate young people's hopes and goals, and the ways in which their institutions support them in their aspirations. This research adds to the literature empirical findings using a methodological stance on the study of aspirations…

The Employment Impact of the Des Moines Occupational Upgrading Project and Model Cities High School Equivalency Project: Project Year One Evaluation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Palomba, Neil A.; And Others

This study was conducted to: (1) evaluate the Occupational Upgrading Project (OUP) and the Model Neighborhood High School Equivalency (HSE) Project's first year of operation, and (2) create baseline data from which future and more conclusive evaluation can be undertaken. Data were gathered by conducting open-ended interviews with the…

Growth of a 45-year-old ponderosa pine plantation: An Arizona case study (P-53)

Treesearch

Peter F. Ffolliott; Gerald J. Gottfried; Cody L. Stropki; L. J. Heidmann

2008-01-01

Information on the growth of forest plantations is necessary for planning of ecosystem-based management of the plantations. This information is also useful in validating or refining computer simulators that estimate plantation growth into the future. Such growth information has been obtained from a 45-year-old ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) plantation in the Hart...

Using growth and decline factors to project VOC emissions from oil and gas production.

PubMed

Oswald, Whitney; Harper, Kiera; Barickman, Patrick; Delaney, Colleen

2015-01-01

Projecting future-year emission inventories in the oil and gas sector is complicated by the fact that there is a life cycle to the amount of production from individual wells and thus from well fields in aggregate. Here we present a method to account for that fact in support of regulatory policy development. This approach also has application to air quality modeling inventories by adding a second tier of refinement to the projection methodology. Currently, modeling studies account for the future decrease in emissions due to new regulations based on the year those regulations are scheduled to take effect. The addition of a year-by-year accounting of production decline provides a more accurate picture of emissions from older, uncontrolled sources. This proof of concept approach is focused solely on oil production; however, it could be used for the activity and components of natural gas production to compile a complete inventory for a given area.

Using early standardized language measures to predict later language and early reading outcomes in children at high risk for language-learning impairments.

PubMed

Flax, Judy F; Realpe-Bonilla, Teresa; Roesler, Cynthia; Choudhury, Naseem; Benasich, April

2009-01-01

The aim of the study was to examine the profiles of children with a family history (FH+) of language-learning impairments (LLI) and a control group of children with no reported family history of LLI (FH-) and identify which language constructs (receptive or expressive) and which ages (2 or 3 years) are related to expressive and receptive language abilities, phonological awareness, and reading abilities at ages 5 and 7 years. Participants included 99 children (40 FH+ and 59 FH-) who received a standardized neuropsychological battery at 2, 3, 5, and 7 years of age. As a group, the FH+ children had significantly lower scores on all language measures at 2 and 3 years, on selected language and phonological awareness measures at 5 years, and on phonological awareness and nonword reading at 7 years. Language comprehension at 3 years was the best predictor of later language and early reading for both groups. These results support past work suggesting that children with a positive family history of LLI are at greater risk for future language and reading problems through their preschool and early school-age years. Furthermore, language comprehension in the early years is a strong predictor of future language-learning status.

Effect of climate change on morphology around a port

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bharathan Radhamma, R.; Deo, M. C.

2017-12-01

It is well known that with the construction of a port and harbour structure the natural shoreline gets interrupted and this disturbs the surrounding coastal morphology. Added to this concern is another one of recent origin, namely, the likely impact of climate change induced by global warming. The present work addresses this issue by describing a case study at New Mangalore Port situated along the west coast of India. The harbour was formed by constructing two breakwaters along either side of the port since the year 1975. We have first determined the rate of change of the shoreline surrounding the port using historic satellite imageries over a period of 36 years. Thereafter a numerical shoreline change model: LITPACK was used to do the same and it was forced by waves simulated over a period of past 36 years varying from 1979 to 2016 and future 36 years ranging from 2016 to 2052. The wave simulation was done with the help of numerical wave model: Mike21-SW which was driven by the wind from a regional climate model called CORDEX. This climate model was earlier run for a moderate global warming pathway called: RCP-4.5. The analysis of satellite imageries indicated that in the past the shoreline change varied from -1.69 m/year to 2.56 m/year with an uncertainty of ± 0.35 m/year and approximately half of the coastal stretch faced extensive erosion. It was found that the wind and waves at this region would intensify in future and also raise the probability of occurrence of high waves. As per the numerical shoreline modelling this would give rise to a much enhanced rate of erosion, namely -2.87 m/year to -3.62 m/year. This would call for a modified shoreline management strategy around the port area. The study highlights the importance of considering potential changes in wind and wave forcing because of the climate change in evaluating future rates of shoreline changes around a port and harbour structure.

Susceptibility to tobacco product use among youth in wave 1 of the population Assessment of tobacco and health (PATH) study.

PubMed

Trinidad, Dennis R; Pierce, John P; Sargent, James D; White, Martha M; Strong, David R; Portnoy, David B; Green, Victoria R; Stanton, Cassandra A; Choi, Kelvin; Bansal-Travers, Maansi; Shi, Yuyan; Pearson, Jennifer L; Kaufman, Annette R; Borek, Nicolette; Coleman, Blair N; Hyland, Andrew; Carusi, Charles; Kealey, Sheila; Leas, Eric; Noble, Madison L; Messer, Karen

2017-08-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate susceptibility and ever use of tobacco products among adolescents and young adults in the US. Cross-sectional analysis of Wave 1(2013-2014) adolescent (12-17year-olds; n=13,651) and young adult (18-24year-olds; n=9112) data from the nationally-representative Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study was conducted. At 12years, 5% were ever tobacco users and 36% were susceptible to use. Seventy percent were susceptible at age 17years, and the same proportion were ever users at age 22years. Susceptibility levels were comparable for cigarettes and e-cigarette (28.6% and 27.4%, respectively), followed by hookah (22.0%), pipes (17.5%), cigars (15.2%), and smokeless tobacco (9.7%). Non-Hispanic (NH) Black (Adjusted Odds Ratio [ORadj]=1.36; 95% Confidence Limit [CL], 1.18-1.56) and Hispanic (ORadj=1.34: 95% CL,1.19-1.49) adolescent never- users were more likely to be susceptible to future use of a tobacco product than NH Whites. Susceptibility was higher with age (15-17yrs. vs 12-14yrs.: OR adj =1.69; 95% CL, 1.55-1.85) and parental education (college graduates vs less than HS education: OR adj =1.22, 95% CL, 1.08-1.39). Compared to exclusive users of hookah, cigars, or smokeless products, larger proportions of exclusive e-cigarette ever users were also susceptible to cigarette use. Among adolescents, lower levels of ever use of tobacco products are often counterbalanced by higher levels of susceptibility for future use, which may suggest delayed initiation in some groups. Ever users of a given tobacco product were more susceptible to use other tobacco products, putting them at risk for future multiple tobacco product use. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

NASA study backs SSTO, urges shuttle phaseout

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asker, James R.

1994-03-01

A brief discusion of a Congressionally ordered NASA study on how to meet future US Government space launch needs is presented. Three options were examined: (1) improvement ofthe Space Shuttle; (2) development of expendable launch vehicles (ELVs); and (3) development of a single-stage-to-orbit (SSTO), manned vehicle that is reusable with advanced technology. After examining the three options, it was determined that the most economical approach to space access through the year 2030 would be to develop the SSTO vehicle and phase out Space Shuttle operations within 15 years and ELVs within 20 years. Other aspects of the study's findings are briefly covered.

Exploring the content and quality of episodic future simulations in semantic dementia.

PubMed

Irish, Muireann; Addis, Donna Rose; Hodges, John R; Piguet, Olivier

2012-12-01

Semantic dementia (SD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder characterised by the amodal loss of semantic knowledge in the context of relatively preserved recent episodic memory. Recent studies have demonstrated that despite relatively intact episodic memory the capacity for future simulation in SD is profoundly impaired, resulting in an asymmetric profile where past retrieval is significantly better than future simulation (referred to as a past>future effect). Here, we sought to identify the origins of this asymmetric profile by conducting a fine-grained analysis of the contextual details provided during past retrieval and future simulation in SD. Participants with SD (n=14), Alzheimer's disease (n=11), and healthy controls (n=14) had previously completed an experimental past-future interview in which they generated three past events from the previous year, and three future events in the next year, and provided subjective qualitative ratings of vividness, emotional valence, emotional intensity, task difficulty, and personal significance for each event described. Our results confirmed the striking impairment for future simulation in SD, despite a relative preservation of past episodic retrieval. Examination of the contextual details provided for past memories and future simulations revealed significant impairments irrespective of contextual detail type for future simulations in SD, and demonstrated that the future thinking deficit in this cohort was driven by a marked decline in the provision of internal (episodic) event details. In contrast with this past>future effect for internal event details, SD patients displayed a future>past effect for external (non-episodic) event details. Analyses of the qualitative ratings provided for past and future events indicated that SD patients' phenomenological experience did not differ between temporal conditions. Our findings underscore the fact that successful extraction of episodic elements from the past is not sufficient for the generation of novel future simulations in SD. The notable disconnect between objective task performance and patients' subjective experience during future simulation likely reflects the tendency of SD patients to recast entire past events into the future condition. Accordingly, the familiarity of the recapitulated details results in similar ratings of vividness and emotionality across temporal conditions, despite marked differences in the richness of contextual details as the patient moves from the past to the future. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Superficial and deep learning approaches among medical students in an interdisciplinary integrated curriculum.

PubMed

Mirghani, Hisham M; Ezimokhai, Mutairu; Shaban, Sami; van Berkel, Henk J M

2014-01-01

Students' learning approaches have a significant impact on the success of the educational experience, and a mismatch between instructional methods and the learning approach is very likely to create an obstacle to learning. Educational institutes' understanding of students' learning approaches allows those institutes to introduce changes in their curriculum content, instructional format, and assessment methods that will allow students to adopt deep learning techniques and critical thinking. The objective of this study was to determine and compare learning approaches among medical students following an interdisciplinary integrated curriculum. This was a cross-sectional study in which an electronic questionnaire using the Biggs two-factor Study Process Questionnaire (SPQ) with 20 questions was administered. Of a total of 402 students at the medical school, 214 (53.2%) completed the questionnaire. There was a significant difference in the mean score of superficial approach, motive and strategy between students in the six medical school years. However, no significant difference was observed in the mean score of deep approach, motive and strategy. The mean score for years 1 and 2 showed a significantly higher surface approach, surface motive and surface strategy when compared with students in years 4-6 in medical school. The superficial approach to learning was mostly preferred among first and second year medical students, and the least preferred among students in the final clinical years. These results may be useful in creating future teaching, learning and assessment strategies aiming to enhance a deep learning approach among medical students. Future studies are needed to investigate the reason for the preferred superficial approach among medical students in their early years of study.

PubMed Central

Decina, Philip A; McGregor, Marion; Hagino, Carol

1990-01-01

This study set out to determine whether healthy lifestyle attitudes are different for students in different years of the chiropractic education process. The results of the FANTASTIC Lifestyle Assessment Questionnaire administered to chiropractic students enrolled in first, second and fourth years of study are presented. Significant differences in scores attained were found between the three years of study in question. A minimum sample size (N) of 81 students was used. First year subjects were significantly different from both second year and fourth year subjects’ scores (p = .012 and p < 0.001, respectively). Mean scores decreased with every year of study. The variables ‘year of study’ and ‘age’ had the most pronounced effect on outcome of scores (p < 0.001 and p < 0.001, respectively). Analyses of variance were performed to determine effect of the variables involved. A two-tailed paired t-test was used to check first year students for changes after six months of school. It is still undetermined whether the significant difference in scores between each year of study are due to the year of study, to increasing average age of the classes, or to societal attitudes about wellness. Suggestions for future study are also presented.

Self-control, future orientation, smoking, and the impact of Dutch tobacco control measures.

PubMed

Daly, Michael; Delaney, Liam; Baumeister, Roy F

2015-06-01

The pronounced discrepancy between smokers' intentions to quit and their smoking behavior has led researchers to suggest that many smokers are time inconsistent, have self-control problems, and may benefit from external efforts to constrain their consumption. This study aims to test whether self-control and future orientation predict smoking levels and to identify if these traits modify how cigarette consumption responds to the introduction of tobacco control measures. A sample of Dutch adults (N = 1585) completed a measure of self-control and the Consideration of Future Consequences Scale (CFCS) in 2001 and indicated their tobacco consumption each year from 2001 to 2007. In 2004, a workplace smoking ban and substantial tax increase on tobacco was introduced in the Netherlands. To identify the potential impact of these tobacco control measures we examined whether participants smoked or were heavy smokers (20 + cigarettes per day) each year from 2001 to 2007. Participants with high self-control and CFCS scores showed lower rates of smoking across the seven year period of the study. The 2004 smoking restrictions were linked with a subsequent decline in heavy smoking. This decline was moderated by self-control levels. Those with low self-control showed a large reduction in heavy smoking whereas those with high self-control did not. The effects were, however, temporary: many people with low self-control resumed heavy smoking 2-3 years after the introduction of the tobacco restrictions. The immediate costs which national tobacco control measures impose on smokers may assist smokers with poor self-control in reducing their cigarette consumption.

Drought events in the Czech Republic: past, present, future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brázdil, Rudolf; Trnka, Miroslav; Mikšovský, Jiří; Tolasz, Radim; Dobrovolný, Petr; Řezníčková, Ladislava; Dolák, Lukáš

2017-04-01

Droughts are, together with floods, the most important natural extremes in the Czech Republic. In the last c. 20 years even some irregular alternations of years with severe droughts on the one hand (2000, 2003, 2007, 2011-2012, 2014-2015) and severe floods on the other (1997, 1998, 2002, 2005, 2009, 2010, 2013), reflecting greater variability of the water cycle, can be observed. Great attention devoted to the study of past, present and future of droughts in the Czech Republic in a few last years allowed to obtain basic knowledge related to long-term spatial-temporal variability of droughts, combining dendrochronological, documentary and instrumental data, synoptic causes and climate forcings of droughts, case studies of important drought anomalies with significant social-economic consequences (like drought of 1947), impacts of droughts in agriculture, forestry or water management, and future droughts according to model estimates. Basic results obtained are summarised and documented by several typical examples. Such level of drought knowledge became a basis for formulation of the new research project, trying to analyse the climate forcings and triggers involved in the occurrence, course and severity of drought events in the Czech Republic in the context of Central Europe and explanations of their physical mechanisms, based on a 515-year series of drought indices reconstructed from documentary and instrumental data. Presentation of this new project for 2017-2019 is included in the second part of the paper. (This work was supported by Czech Science Foundation, project no. 17-10026S "Drought events in the Czech Republic and their causes".)

Children with chronic conditions: perspectives on condition management.

PubMed

Beacham, Barbara L; Deatrick, Janet A

2015-01-01

This qualitative study described children's (8-13 years old) perspectives of their chronic health conditions (e.g., asthma, diabetes, cystic fibrosis): how they perceived their condition, its management, and its implications for their future. The study used the family management style framework (FMSF) to examine child perspectives on the joint venture of condition management between the child and family. Children within this age group viewed condition management in ways similar to their parents and have developed their own routines around condition management. Future studies of this phenomenon comparing child and parent perspectives would further our understanding of the influence of family management. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Paleoclimate and bubonic plague: a forewarning of future risk?

PubMed

McMichael, Anthony J

2010-08-27

Pandemics of bubonic plague have occurred in Eurasia since the sixth century AD. Climatic variations in Central Asia affect the population size and activity of the plague bacterium's reservoir rodent species, influencing the probability of human infection. Using innovative time-series analysis of surrogate climate records spanning 1,500 years, a study in BMC Biology concludes that climatic fluctuations may have influenced these pandemics. This has potential implications for health risks from future climate change.

Generalized Training Devices for Avionic Systems Maintenance.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Parker, Edward L.

A research study was conducted to determine the feasibility and desirability of developing generalized training equipment for use in avionic systems maintenance training. The study consisted of a group of survey and analytic tasks to provide useful guidance to serve the needs of the Naval Aviation community in future years. The study had four…

The Evolution of Superintendents as Instructional Leaders: Past, Present, and Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cantu, Blanca S.

2013-01-01

This study examined the critical aspects of oversight that superintendents must employ to improve instruction. It was an analysis of superintendents as instructional leaders. In this study, we looked at four school district superintendents who have demonstrated instructionally effective school districts. The study was based on a three-year period,…

Plasma Free Amino Acid Profiles Predict Four-Year Risk of Developing Diabetes, Metabolic Syndrome, Dyslipidemia, and Hypertension in Japanese Population

PubMed Central

Yamakado, Minoru; Nagao, Kenji; Imaizumi, Akira; Tani, Mizuki; Toda, Akiko; Tanaka, Takayuki; Jinzu, Hiroko; Miyano, Hiroshi; Yamamoto, Hiroshi; Daimon, Takashi; Horimoto, Katsuhisa; Ishizaka, Yuko

2015-01-01

Plasma free amino acid (PFAA) profile is highlighted in its association with visceral obesity and hyperinsulinemia, and future diabetes. Indeed PFAA profiling potentially can evaluate individuals’ future risks of developing lifestyle-related diseases, in addition to diabetes. However, few studies have been performed especially in Asian populations, about the optimal combination of PFAAs for evaluating health risks. We quantified PFAA levels in 3,701 Japanese subjects, and determined visceral fat area (VFA) and two-hour post-challenge insulin (Ins120 min) values in 865 and 1,160 subjects, respectively. Then, models between PFAA levels and the VFA or Ins120 min values were constructed by multiple linear regression analysis with variable selection. Finally, a cohort study of 2,984 subjects to examine capabilities of the obtained models for predicting four-year risk of developing new-onset lifestyle-related diseases was conducted. The correlation coefficients of the obtained PFAA models against VFA or Ins120 min were higher than single PFAA level. Our models work well for future risk prediction. Even after adjusting for commonly accepted multiple risk factors, these models can predict future development of diabetes, metabolic syndrome, and dyslipidemia. PFAA profiles confer independent and differing contributions to increasing the lifestyle-related disease risks in addition to the currently known factors in a general Japanese population. PMID:26156880

Pathways between self-esteem and depression in couples.

PubMed

Johnson, Matthew D; Galambos, Nancy L; Finn, Christine; Neyer, Franz J; Horne, Rebecca M

2017-04-01

Guided by concepts from a relational developmental perspective, this study examined intra- and interpersonal associations between self-esteem and depressive symptoms in a sample of 1,407 couples surveyed annually across 6 years in the Panel Analysis of Intimate Relations and Family Dynamics (pairfam) study. Autoregressive cross-lagged model results demonstrated that self-esteem predicted future depressive symptoms for male partners at all times, replicating the vulnerability model for men (low self-esteem is a risk factor for future depression). Additionally, a cross-partner association emerged between symptoms of depression: Higher depressive symptoms in one partner were associated with higher levels of depression in the other partner one year later. Finally, supportive dyadic coping, the support that partners reported providing to one another in times of stress, was tested as a potential interpersonal mediator of pathways between self-esteem and depression. Female partners' higher initial levels of self-esteem predicted male partners' subsequent reports of increased supportive dyadic coping, which, in turn, predicted higher self-esteem and fewer symptoms of depression among female partners in the future. Male partners' initially higher symptoms of depression predicted less frequent supportive dyadic coping subsequently reported by female partners, which was associated with increased feelings of depression in the future. Couple relations represent an important contextual factor that may be implicated in the developmental pathways connecting self-esteem and symptoms of depression. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Future hydrological regimes and glacier cover in the Everest region: The case study of the upper Dudh Koshi basin.

PubMed

Soncini, Andrea; Bocchiola, Daniele; Confortola, Gabriele; Minora, Umberto; Vuillermoz, Elisa; Salerno, Franco; Viviano, Gaetano; Shrestha, Dibas; Senese, Antonella; Smiraglia, Claudio; Diolaiuti, Guglielmina

2016-09-15

Assessment of future water resources under climate change is required in the Himalayas, where hydrological cycle is poorly studied and little understood. This study focuses on the upper Dudh Koshi river of Nepal (151km(2), 4200-8848ma.s.l.) at the toe of Mt. Everest, nesting the debris covered Khumbu, and Khangri Nup glaciers (62km(2)). New data gathered during three years of field campaigns (2012-2014) were used to set up a glacio-hydrological model describing stream flows, snow and ice melt, ice cover thickness and glaciers' flow dynamics. The model was validated, and used to assess changes of the hydrological cycle until 2100. Climate projections are used from three Global Climate Models used in the recent IPCC AR5 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Flow statistics are estimated for two reference decades 2045-2054, and 2090-2099, and compared against control run CR, 2012-2014. During CR we found a contribution of ice melt to stream flows of 55% yearly, with snow melt contributing for 19%. Future flows are predicted to increase in monsoon season, but to decrease yearly (-4% vs CR on average) at 2045-2054. At the end of century large reduction would occur in all seasons, i.e. -26% vs CR on average at 2090-2099. At half century yearly contribution of ice melt would be on average 45%, and snow melt 28%. At the end of century ice melt would be 31%, and snow contribution 39%. Glaciers in the area are projected to thin largely up to 6500ma.s.l. until 2100, reducing their volume by -50% or more, and their ice covered area by -30% or more. According to our results, in the future water resources in the upper Dudh Koshi would decrease, and depend largely upon snow melt and rainfall, so that adaptation measures to modified water availability will be required. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

What factors can be protective for both self-rated oral health and general health?

PubMed

Ekbäck, Gunnar; Persson, Carina; Lindén-Boström, Margareta

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to analyze if the same protective factors are significant for both self-rated health and oral health. It was hypothesized that these factors should be the same. The material is based on a population sample of 17 113 women and men aged 18-84 years in one county in central Sweden.The response rate was 61%. The data were collected through a postal questionnaire "Life and Health" in 2008. The questionnaire comprised of 149 questions and was divided into a number of areas, e.g. socioeconomic conditions, quality of life, social relations, lifestyle, and health. To analyze the strength of the protective factors whilst taking into account the relationships between the various independent variables, multivariate analyses were conducted using binary multiple logistic regression. The outcome measures with the strongest association to general health is belonging to the age group 18-34 years, positive faith in the future, good sleeping pattern and to be employed/self-employed/retired. The outcomes with the strongest association to oral health are good finances, belonging to the age group 18-34 years, to be born in Sweden and positive faith in the future. Conclusions. This study shows that, in general, the same protective factors are significant for both self-rated health and self-rated oral health, making it possible to use the same approach to strengthen both general health and oral health. One important outcome, not often considered, is having positive faith in the future. It is a task for the health care system to strengthen people's faith in the future, partly through a very high quality care when needed, but also through active health promotion that increases the chances of a healthy life, both from a public health perspective as from an oral health perspective.

Frequency standards from government laboratories over the next 25 years

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maleki, L.

1994-01-01

Based on a number of considerations including projected needs, current status, future trends, and status of key technologies, an attempt is made to project the future of government supported frequency standards development in the next 25 years.

Half-century research developments in maritime accidents: Future directions.

PubMed

Luo, Meifeng; Shin, Sung-Ho

2016-04-19

Over the past 50 years, research in maritime accidents has undergone a series of fundamental changes. Understanding the evolution of these changes can help maritime communities to know what has been done in the past, how maritime safety can be improved in the future, and how to reduce or eliminate the risks to ships, the lives aboard them, the cargo they carry, and the marine environment. This study conducts a comprehensive literature review on research in maritime accidents, comprising 572 papers published in 125 journals over the 50 years from 1965 to 2014. The patterns of evolution of the researchers, the journals, the disciplines involved, the research methods, the major issues and causes, and the data sources are identified, and the changes explained. We find that the main focus of research in maritime accidents has shifted over the past 50 years from naval architecture to human error, and may continue to expand into socio-economic factors. In addition, future research in maritime accidents will be multi-disciplinary, use multiple data sources, and adopt advanced research methods, to account for complex interactions between the natural environment, the development of naval technology, human behavior, and shipping market conditions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The upper respiratory pyramid: early factors and later treatment utilization in World Trade Center exposed firefighters.

PubMed

Niles, Justin K; Webber, Mayris P; Liu, Xiaoxue; Zeig-Owens, Rachel; Hall, Charles B; Cohen, Hillel W; Glaser, Michelle S; Weakley, Jessica; Schwartz, Theresa M; Weiden, Michael D; Nolan, Anna; Aldrich, Thomas K; Glass, Lara; Kelly, Kerry J; Prezant, David J

2014-08-01

We investigated early post 9/11 factors that could predict rhinosinusitis healthcare utilization costs up to 11 years later in 8,079 World Trade Center-exposed rescue/recovery workers. We used bivariate and multivariate analytic techniques to investigate utilization outcomes; we also used a pyramid framework to describe rhinosinusitis healthcare groups at early (by 9/11/2005) and late (by 9/11/2012) time points. Multivariate models showed that pre-9/11/2005 chronic rhinosinusitis diagnoses and nasal symptoms predicted final year healthcare utilization outcomes more than a decade after WTC exposure. The relative proportion of workers on each pyramid level changed significantly during the study period. Diagnoses of chronic rhinosinusitis within 4 years of a major inhalation event only partially explain future healthcare utilization. Exposure intensity, early symptoms and other factors must also be considered when anticipating future healthcare needs. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Preparing nursing students for the future: Development and implementation of an Australian Bachelor of Nursing programme with a community health focus.

PubMed

Cooper, Simon; Cant, Robyn; Browning, Mark; Robinson, Eddie

2014-01-01

This paper focuses on changes in the educational preparation of undergraduate nurses in line with contemporary primary and preventative healthcare models. We evaluated a new Australian nursing and community care degree programme using focus groups with 38 students in their first years of study, and quantitative performance data (regarding entry, performance and course attrition). Four main themes were identified related to students' course experience: 'I think community health should be an elective'; 'Focus on relevance to practice'; 'Teaching by non-nursing academics' and 'Access to support during transition to university.' Overall pass rates were 94% (first year) and 97% (second year) with a low 11% attrition rate. We conclude that based on prior experiences and stereotypical views, students may be ambivalent about the inclusion of primary and preventative care models which nevertheless are essential to enhance practice and to prepare the future nursing workforce.

The Upper Respiratory Pyramid: Early Factors and Later Treatment Utilization in World Trade Center Exposed Firefighters

PubMed Central

Niles, Justin K.; Webber, Mayris P.; Liu, Xiaoxue; Zeig-Owens, Rachel; Hall, Charles B.; Cohen, Hillel W.; Glaser, Michelle S.; Weakley, Jessica; Schwartz, Theresa M.; Weiden, Michael D.; Nolan, Anna; Aldrich, Thomas K.; Glass, Lara; Kelly, Kerry J.; Prezant, David J.

2015-01-01

Background We investigated early post 9/11 factors that could predict rhinosinusitis healthcare utilization costs up to 11 years later in 8,079 World Trade Center-exposed rescue/recovery workers. Methods We used bivariate and multivariate analytic techniques to investigate utilization outcomes; we also used a pyramid framework to describe rhinosinusitis healthcare groups at early (by 9/11/2005) and late (by 9/11/2012) time points. Results Multivariate models showed that pre-9/11/2005 chronic rhinosinusitis diagnoses and nasal symptoms predicted final year healthcare utilization outcomes more than a decade after WTC exposure. The relative proportion of workers on each pyramid level changed significantly during the study period. Conclusions Diagnoses of chronic rhinosinusitis within 4 years of a major inhalation event only partially explain future healthcare utilization. Exposure intensity, early symptoms and other factors must also be considered when anticipating future healthcare needs. PMID:24898816

The association between early generative concern and caregiving with friends from early to middle adolescence.

PubMed

Lawford, Heather L; Doyle, Anna-Beth; Markiewicz, Dorothy

2013-12-01

Generativity, defined as concern for future generations, is theorized to become a priority in midlife, preceded by a stage in which intimacy is the central issue. Recent research, however, has found evidence of generativity even in adolescence. This longitudinal study explored the associations between caregiving in friendships, closely related to intimacy, and early generative concern in a young adolescent sample. Given the importance of close friendships in adolescence, it was hypothesized that responsive caregiving in early adolescent friendships would predict later generative concern. Approximately 140 adolescents (56 % female, aged 14 at Time 1) completed questionnaires regarding generative concern and responsive caregiving with friends yearly across 2 years. Structural equation modeling revealed that caregiving predicted generative concern 1 year later but generative concern did not predict later caregiving. These results suggest that caregiving in close friendships plays an important role in the development of adolescents' motivation to contribute to future generations.

Introduction to Special Section: Paleoseismology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeats, Robert S.; Prentice, Carol S.

1996-03-01

A proverb of Confucius states "Study the past if you would divine the future." If we could learn about the past history of earthquakes on a specific fault, then we could serve society well by better forecasting the future earthquake behavior of that fault. For most of the world, the period of historical records is short: about 200 years in California and less than that in New Zealand, Oregon, and other parts of the world. And even where the historical record is thousands of years long, such as in north central China or the eastern Mediterranean region, it is commonly difficult to correlate a major historical earthquake with a specific active fault. Even if this correlation could be made without ambiguity, the recurrence intervals for many faults are longer than even a historical record of several thousand years. For these reasons, the history of large earthquakes on faults must, for the most part, be learned from the geological record.

Methods, History, Selected Findings, and Recommendations from the Louisiana School Effectiveness Study, 1980-85

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Teddlie, Charles; Stringfield, Samuel; Desselle, Stephanie

2017-01-01

An overview of the first five years of the Louisiana School Effectiveness Study (LSES) is described. The longitudinal nature of the study has allowed the research team to develop an evolving methodology, one benefiting from prior external studies as well as prior phases of LSES. Practical implications and recommendations for future research are…

''Whither Deterrence?'' A Brief Synopsis May, 2002

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Poppe, C; Vergino, E; Barker, R

To most audiences, deterrence has been interconnected with nuclear weapons whose purpose had been to deter a Soviet attack. But, the Soviet Union has been gone for almost a decade. President George W. Bush has stated that Russia is not an enemy of the US and the numbers of nuclear weapons can be dramatically reduced. It is important to note that deterrence has always transcended nuclear weapons. The US' first line of deterrence has been its formidable conventional warfare capability, designed to prevent conflict and win wars if necessary. The role of nuclear weapons has been to deter the,use ofmore » nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction against U.S. interests during the conduct of conventional warfare and to ensure our ability to inflict massive destruction on any who would use nuclear weapons, or other weapons of mass destruction, against us. With regard to the Soviet Union, the threat of the use of nuclear weapons was a critical component of our deterrent to prevent massive Soviet conventional attack against our allies in Europe. However, the events of September 11, 2001 make clear that we have not convinced all who seek to harm us that we will be able to respond in a manner to make them wish they had not even tried. The September 11 attacks, as well as other past conflicts, do not mean that deterrence has failed-it remains effective against the threats for which it was designed. We have known there are other threats for which we did not have a credible deterrent. The challenge is to sustain deterrence against the classic threats as they evolve in technical sophistication while remaining alert to the need to evaluate continuously our ability to deter previously unforeseen challenges. How then should we be looking at deterrence as we consider fifteen or so years in the future, say to about 2015? What will be the role of nuclear weapons and other instruments of mass destruction in the future? What should the US be doing to prepare for the future? In this study, we present four futures as a tool for planners who must think ahead fifteen years or more, rather than a prediction of the future. None of the four futures will emerge in just the way we have described. Fifteen years from now, some mix of these futures is more likely, or perhaps we will see a trend towards one of the futures, but with the possibility that any of the other three could appear, perhaps quite swiftly. Any future will undoubtedly contain its own kind of unpleasant surprises and, in contrast to the Cold War; the possession of enormous nuclear-response and conventional-response capability may not be sufficient to deter these from happening. However, there are other tools that the US must include as part of its strategy and security policy in addition to deterrence, specifically dissuasion, defense, destruction, and assurance. Rather than rely on the Cold-War concept of deterrence, future security policy should be built upon the appropriate mix of these elements as a way to steer us toward a more favorable future, while ensuring that we are prepared for the kinds of surprises associated with far less favorable futures. In this study, we have defined three unfavorable futures to be avoided, and one future that represents, we believe, a more desirable global situation than the first three, but still not entirely benign. Our security policy should be defined to avoid or prevent the first three, which we have entitled ''Nuclear Giants, Global Terror'', and ''Regional Nuclear Tension and Use'', and steer us toward a more favorable future, ''Dynamic Cooperation''. We have examined the implications for both policy and military capability that are posed by these different futures. The result often raises more questions than we are able to answer without additional study-however, our primary purpose was to clarify the issues, to identify. what we believe we know, what we don't know, and where more study and effort are needed. Nevertheless, in preparing for unfavorable futures, we must also identify and plan the future we want. This study emphasizes that a desirable future in 2015 would be characterized by peaceful resolution of conflict, growing worldwide economic prosperity, an effective non-proliferation regime, the ability of the United States to control its own destiny without conflict, and expansion of political and economic freedom. Security policies, even in the face of unpleasant futures, should be crafted so as enhance, rather than diminish, these desired goals.« less

Who will be the Radiologists of Tomorrow? A survey of radiology during the "Practical Year" in Germany.

PubMed

Dettmer, Sabine; Fischer, Volkhard; Paeßens, Carolin; Meyer, Simone; Wacker, Frank K; Rodt, Thomas

2017-10-01

Purpose  Aim of our study was to evaluate the motivation of medical students in their final year of medical school to choose radiology for further specialization by means of a Germany-wide survey. Materials and Methods  The survey was performed during the 2015/16 semester among German medical students in their four months radiology elective during the final year. Invitations for the study were distributed by the Student Secretariats of each university. The survey was web-based with EvaSys 7.0 software. Questions on radiology contents during medical studies and "practical year" were part of the survey. Plans for residency and possible advantages and disadvantages of radiology as medical specialty were inquired. Descriptive statistics and group comparisons were used as analysis methods. Results  89 students participated in the survey at the beginning and 60 students at the end of the practical year. Of these 39 students could be identified who answered both questionnaires. Most students were satisfied with their final year radiology elective (mean 1.8 on a range from 1 to 5). Nevertheless, they criticized mentoring during routine work (mean 2.1) and a lack of educational courses (mean 2.1). Most students (83 %) were uncertain about their residency choice at the beginning of their "practical year" and about one fifth changed their plans. From the students' point of view main advantages of radiology included contact with many other clinical disciplines (87 %) and the working conditions (68 %). The reduced patient contact (42 %), the large amount of work at a computer (43 %), and the dependency on referring physicians (42 %) were regarded as the main disadvantages. The students regarded the way radiology is taught during the studies as not practical enough. With regard to radiology the majority of students (63 %) felt poorly prepared for their future work. Conclusion  The "practical year" is important regarding the choice of future specialization. There was a high degree of satisfaction with the "practical year" in radiology. The mentoring during routine work and a lack of educational courses was mildly criticized. These factors provide room for improvement to foster students' interest in radiology. Key Points   · The "practical year" is important regarding the choice of further specialization.. · Criticisms of radiology in the "practical year" were mentoring and courses.. · Students feel poorly prepared for their future work regarding practical radiological skills.. Citation Format · Dettmer S, Fischer V, Paeßens C et al. Who will be the Radiologists of Tomorrow? A survey of radiology during the "Practical Year" in Germany. Fortschr Röntgenstr 2017; 189: 967 - 976. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Parenting Needs of Urban, African American Fathers.

PubMed

Smith, Tyler K; Tandon, S Darius; Bair-Merritt, Megan H; Hanson, Janice L

2015-07-01

Fathers play a critical role in children's development; similarly, fatherhood positively affects men's health. Among the larger population of fathers relatively little is known about the parenting knowledge of urban, African American fathers. Focusing on urban, African American fathers, the objectives of this study were to (1) understand the primary sources from which fathers learn about parenting, (2) determine where and how fathers prefer to receive future parenting education, and (3) explore the information perceived as most valuable to fathers and how this compares with the recommended anticipatory guidance (Bright Futures-based) delivered during well visits. Five focus groups, with a total of 21 participants, were conducted with urban fathers at a community-based organization. Study eligibility included being more than 18 years old, English speaking, and having at least one child 0 to 5 years old. During the focus groups, fathers were asked where they received parenting information, how and where they preferred to receive parenting information, and what they thought about Bright Futures parenting guidelines. Fathers most commonly described receiving parenting information from their own relatives rather than from their child's health care provider. Most fathers preferred to learn parenting from a person rather than a technology-based source and expressed interest in learning more about parenting at community-based locations. Although fathers viewed health care providers' role as primarily teaching about physical health, they valued Bright Futures anticipatory guidance about parenting. Fathers valued learning about child rearing, health, and development. Augmenting physician counseling about Bright Futures with community-based parenting education may be beneficial for fathers. © The Author(s) 2014.

A forecast of bridge engineering, 1980-2000.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1979-01-01

A three-pronged study was undertaken to forecast the nature of bridge engineering and construction for the years 1980 to 2000. First, the history of bridge engineering was explored to extrapolate likely future developments. Second, a detailed questio...

Mechanisms of combustion limits in premixed gas flames at microgravity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ronney, Paul D.

1991-01-01

A three-year experimental and theoretical research program on the mechanisms of combustion limits of premixed gasflames at microgravity was conducted. Progress during this program is identified and avenues for future studies are discussed.

Projecting future climate change impacts on heat-related mortality in large urban areas in China.

PubMed

Li, Ying; Ren, Ting; Kinney, Patrick L; Joyner, Andrew; Zhang, Wei

2018-05-01

Global climate change is anticipated to raise overall temperatures and has the potential to increase future mortality attributable to heat. Urban areas are particularly vulnerable to heat because of high concentrations of susceptible people. As the world's largest developing country, China has experienced noticeable changes in climate, partially evidenced by frequent occurrence of extreme heat in urban areas, which could expose millions of residents to summer heat stress that may result in increased health risk, including mortality. While there is a growing literature on future impacts of extreme temperatures on public health, projecting changes in future health outcomes associated with climate warming remains challenging and underexplored, particularly in developing countries. This is an exploratory study aimed at projecting future heat-related mortality risk in major urban areas in China. We focus on the 51 largest Chinese cities that include about one third of the total population in China, and project the potential changes in heat-related mortality based on 19 different global-scale climate models and three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). City-specific risk estimates for high temperature and all-cause mortality were used to estimate annual heat-related mortality over two future twenty-year time periods. We estimated that for the 20-year period in Mid-21st century (2041-2060) relative to 1970-2000, incidence of excess heat-related mortality in the 51 cities to be approximately 37,800 (95% CI: 31,300-43,500), 31,700 (95% CI: 26,200-36,600) and 25,800 (95% CI: 21,300-29,800) deaths per year under RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. Slowing climate change through the most stringent emission control scenario RCP2.6, relative to RCP8.5, was estimated to avoid 12,900 (95% CI: 10,800-14,800) deaths per year in the 51 cities in the 2050s, and 35,100 (95% CI: 29,200-40,100) deaths per year in the 2070s. The highest mortality risk is primarily in cities located in the North, East and Central regions of China. Population adaptation to heat is likely to reduce excess heat mortality, but the extent of adaptation is still unclear. Future heat mortality risk attributable to exposure to elevated warm season temperature is likely to be considerable in China's urban centers, with substantial geographic variations. Climate mitigation and heat risk management are needed to reduce such risk and produce substantial public health benefits. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting Nitrate Transport under Future Climate Scenarios beneath the Nebraska Management Systems Evaluation Area (MSEA) site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y.; Akbariyeh, S.; Gomez Peña, C. A.; Bartlet-Hunt, S.

2017-12-01

Understanding the impacts of future climate change on soil hydrological processes and solute transport is crucial to develop appropriate strategies to minimize adverse impacts of agricultural activities on groundwater quality. The goal of this work is to evaluate the direct effects of climate change on the fate and transport of nitrate beneath a center-pivot irrigated corn field in Nebraska Management Systems Evaluation Area (MSEA) site. Future groundwater recharge rate and actual evapotranspiration rate were predicted based on an inverse modeling approach using climate data generated by Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model under the RCP 8.5 scenario, which was downscaled from global CCSM4 model to a resolution of 24 by 24 km2. A groundwater flow model was first calibrated based on historical groundwater table measurement and was then applied to predict future groundwater table in the period 2057-2060. Finally, predicted future groundwater recharge rate, actual evapotranspiration rate, and groundwater level, together with future precipitation data from WRF, were used in a three-dimensional (3D) model, which was validated based on rich historic data set collected from 1993-1996, to predict nitrate concentration in soil and groundwater from the year 2057 to 2060. Future groundwater recharge was found to be decreasing in the study area compared to average groundwater recharge data from the literature. Correspondingly, groundwater elevation was predicted to decrease (1 to 2 ft) over the five years of simulation. Predicted higher transpiration data from climate model resulted in lower infiltration of nitrate concentration in subsurface within the root zone.

Predicting Nitrate Transport under Future Climate Scenarios beneath the Nebraska Management Systems Evaluation Area (MSEA) site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y.; Akbariyeh, S.; Gomez Peña, C. A.; Bartlet-Hunt, S.

2016-12-01

Understanding the impacts of future climate change on soil hydrological processes and solute transport is crucial to develop appropriate strategies to minimize adverse impacts of agricultural activities on groundwater quality. The goal of this work is to evaluate the direct effects of climate change on the fate and transport of nitrate beneath a center-pivot irrigated corn field in Nebraska Management Systems Evaluation Area (MSEA) site. Future groundwater recharge rate and actual evapotranspiration rate were predicted based on an inverse modeling approach using climate data generated by Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model under the RCP 8.5 scenario, which was downscaled from global CCSM4 model to a resolution of 24 by 24 km2. A groundwater flow model was first calibrated based on historical groundwater table measurement and was then applied to predict future groundwater table in the period 2057-2060. Finally, predicted future groundwater recharge rate, actual evapotranspiration rate, and groundwater level, together with future precipitation data from WRF, were used in a three-dimensional (3D) model, which was validated based on rich historic data set collected from 1993-1996, to predict nitrate concentration in soil and groundwater from the year 2057 to 2060. Future groundwater recharge was found to be decreasing in the study area compared to average groundwater recharge data from the literature. Correspondingly, groundwater elevation was predicted to decrease (1 to 2 ft) over the five years of simulation. Predicted higher transpiration data from climate model resulted in lower infiltration of nitrate concentration in subsurface within the root zone.

Status of Current and Future Remote Sensing with EO-1 Hyperion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ungar, Stephen

2006-01-01

The Earth Observing-One (EO-1) satellite, launched in November of 2000, will complete six full years of operation near the end of this year. Observations from the Hyperion Imaging Spectrometer on board EO-1 have contributed to over 300 papers in refereed journals, conference proceeds and other presentations. Hyperion has been used to study a variety of natural and anthropogenic phenomena including hazards and catastrophes, agricultural health and productivity, ecological disturbance/development, and land use/land cover change. As an example, Hyperion has been used in hazard and catastrophe studies to monitor and assess effects of tsunamis, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, mudslides, tornadoes, hurricanes, wild-fires (natural and human ignited), oil spills, and the aftermath of world trade center bombing. This presentation summarizes the current status of EO-1 Hyperion in terms of key scientific findings to date and future plans for operation of this instrument through 2007.

Human Hemato-Lymphoid System Mice: Current Use and Future Potential for Medicine

PubMed Central

Rongvaux, Anthony; Takizawa, Hitoshi; Strowig, Till; Willinger, Tim; Eynon, Elizabeth E.

2014-01-01

To directly study complex human hemato-lymphoid system physiology and respective system-associated diseases in vivo, human-to-mouse xenotransplantation models for human blood and blood-forming cells and organs have been developed over the past three decades. We here review the fundamental requirements and the remarkable progress made over the past few years in improving these systems, the current major achievements reached by use of these models, and the future challenges to more closely model and study human health and disease and to achieve predictive preclinical testing of both prevention measures and potential new therapies. PMID:23330956

Adapting to a Changing Colorado River: Making Future Water Deliveries More Reliable Through Robust Management Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groves, D.; Bloom, E.; Fischbach, J. R.; Knopman, D.

2013-12-01

The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and water management agencies representing the seven Colorado River Basin States initiated the Colorado River Basin Study in January 2010 to evaluate the resiliency of the Colorado River system over the next 50 years and compare different options for ensuring successful management of the river's resources. RAND was asked to join this Basin Study Team in January 2012 to help develop an analytic approach to identify key vulnerabilities in managing the Colorado River basin over the coming decades and to evaluate different options that could reduce this vulnerability. Using a quantitative approach for planning under uncertainty called Robust Decision Making (RDM), the RAND team assisted the Basin Study by: identifying future vulnerable conditions that could lead to imbalances that could cause the basin to be unable to meet its water delivery objectives; developing a computer-based tool to define 'portfolios' of management options reflecting different strategies for reducing basin imbalances; evaluating these portfolios across thousands of future scenarios to determine how much they could improve basin outcomes; and analyzing the results from the system simulations to identify key tradeoffs among the portfolios. This talk will describe RAND's contribution to the Basin Study, focusing on the methodologies used to to identify vulnerabilities for Upper Basin and Lower Basin water supply reliability and to compare portfolios of options. Several key findings emerged from the study. Future Streamflow and Climate Conditions Are Key: - Vulnerable conditions arise in a majority of scenarios where streamflows are lower than historical averages and where drought conditions persist for eight years or more. - Depending where the shortages occur, problems will arise for delivery obligations for the upper river basin and the lower river basin. The lower river basin is vulnerable to a broader range of plausible future conditions. Additional Investments in Infrastructure and Efficiency Could Improve Performance and Reduce Risk: - Different portfolios of water-supply and demand-reduction options offer performance trade-offs. - Different types of options in the portfolios, such as conservation, desalination, or water banking, would affect future outcomes and costs of implementation. - Analysis of all the portfolios identified important near-term, high-priority options that should be implemented in the near future, including municipal, industrial, and agricultural conservation. Other Solutions May Be Required: - If future hydrologic conditions develop in a manner consistent with the more pessimistic projections, the Basin is increasingly likely to face vulnerable conditions. The region may need to consider additional management options.

Analysis and Forecasting of Shoreline Position

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barton, C. C.; Tebbens, S. F.

2007-12-01

Analysis of historical shoreline positions on sandy coasts, in the geologic record, and study of sea-level rise curves reveals that the dynamics of the underlying processes produce temporal/spatial signals that exhibit power scaling and are therefore self-affine fractals. Self-affine time series signals can be quantified over many orders of magnitude in time and space in terms of persistence, a measure of the degree of correlation between adjacent values in the stochastic portion of a time series. Fractal statistics developed for self-affine time series are used to forecast a probability envelope bounding future shoreline positions. The envelope provides the standard deviation as a function of three variables: persistence, a constant equal to the value of the power spectral density when 1/period equals 1, and the number of time increments. The persistence of a twenty-year time series of the mean-high-water (MHW) shoreline positions was measured for four profiles surveyed at Duck, NC at the Field Research Facility (FRF) by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The four MHW shoreline time series signals are self-affine with persistence ranging between 0.8 and 0.9, which indicates that the shoreline position time series is weakly persistent (where zero is uncorrelated), and has highly varying trends for all time intervals sampled. Forecasts of a probability envelope for future MHW positions are made for the 20 years of record and beyond to 50 years from the start of the data records. The forecasts describe the twenty-year data sets well and indicate that within a 96% confidence envelope, future decadal MHW shoreline excursions should be within 14.6 m of the position at the start of data collection. This is a stable-oscillatory shoreline. The forecasting method introduced here includes the stochastic portion of the time series while the traditional method of predicting shoreline change reduces the time series to a linear trend line fit to historic shoreline positions and extrapolated linearly to forecast future positions with a linearly increasing mean that breaks the confidence envelope eight years into the future and continues to increase. The traditional method is a poor representation of the observed shoreline position time series and is a poor basis for extrapolating future shoreline positions.

Episodic Memory and Future Thinking During Early Childhood: Linking the Past and Future

PubMed Central

Cuevas, Kimberly; Rajan, Vinaya; Morasch, Katherine C.; Bell, Martha Ann

2015-01-01

Despite extensive examination of episodic memory and future thinking development, little is known about the concurrent emergence of these capacities during early childhood. In Experiment 1, 3-year-olds participated in an episodic memory hiding task [“what, when, where” (WWW) components] with an episodic future thinking component. In Experiment 2, a group of 4-year-olds (including children from Experiment 1) participated in the same task (different objects and locations), providing the first longitudinal investigation of episodic memory and future thinking. Although children exhibited age-related improvements in recall, recognition, and binding of the WWW episodic memory components, there were no age-related changes in episodic future thinking. At both ages, WWW episodic memory performance was higher than future thinking performance, and episodic future thinking and WWW memory components were unrelated. These findings suggest that the WWW components of episodic memory are potentially less fragile than the future components when assessed in a cognitively demanding task. PMID:25864990

Episodic memory and future thinking during early childhood: Linking the past and future.

PubMed

Cuevas, Kimberly; Rajan, Vinaya; Morasch, Katherine C; Bell, Martha Ann

2015-07-01

Despite extensive examination of episodic memory and future thinking development, little is known about the concurrent emergence of these capacities during early childhood. In Experiment 1, 3-year-olds participated in an episodic memory hiding task ("what, when, where" [WWW] components) with an episodic future thinking component. In Experiment 2, a group of 4-year-olds (including children from Experiment 1) participated in the same task (different objects and locations), providing the first longitudinal investigation of episodic memory and future thinking. Although children exhibited age-related improvements in recall, recognition, and binding of the WWW episodic memory components, there were no age-related changes in episodic future thinking. At both ages, WWW episodic memory performance was higher than future thinking performance, and episodic future thinking and WWW memory components were unrelated. These findings suggest that the WWW components of episodic memory are potentially less fragile than the future components when assessed in a cognitively demanding task. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Predictive Validity of the HKT-R Risk Assessment Tool: Two and 5-Year Violent Recidivism in a Nationwide Sample of Dutch Forensic Psychiatric Patients.

PubMed

Bogaerts, Stefan; Spreen, Marinus; Ter Horst, Paul; Gerlsma, Coby

2018-06-01

This study has examined the predictive validity of the Historical Clinical Future [ Historisch Klinisch Toekomst] Revised risk assessment scheme in a cohort of 347 forensic psychiatric patients, which were discharged between 2004 and 2008 from any of 12 highly secure forensic centers in the Netherlands. Predictive validity was measured 2 and 5 years after release. Official reconviction data obtained from the Dutch Ministry of Security and Justice were used as outcome measures. Violent reoffending within 2 and 5 years after discharge was assessed. With regard to violent reoffending, results indicated that the predictive validity of the Historical domain was modest for 2 (area under the curve [AUC] = .75) and 5 (AUC = .74) years. The predictive validity of the Clinical domain was marginal for 2 (admission: AUC = .62; discharge: AUC = .63) and 5 (admission: AUC = .69; discharge: AUC = .62) years after release. The predictive validity of the Future domain was modest (AUC = .71) for 2 years and low for 5 (AUC = .58) years. The total score of the instrument was modest for 2 years (AUC = .78) and marginal for 5 (AUC = .68) years. Finally, the Final Risk Judgment was modest for 2 years (AUC = .78) and marginal for 5 (AUC = .63) years time at risk. It is concluded that this risk assessment instrument appears to be a satisfactory instrument for risk assessment.

The effects of violence exposure on the development of impulse control and future orientation across adolescence and early adulthood: Time-specific and generalized effects in a sample of juvenile offenders.

PubMed

Monahan, Kathryn C; King, Kevin M; Shulman, Elizabeth P; Cauffman, Elizabeth; Chassin, Laurie

2015-11-01

Impulse control and future orientation increase across adolescence, but little is known about how contextual factors shape the development of these capacities. The present study investigates how stress exposure, operationalized as exposure to violence, alters the developmental pattern of impulse control and future orientation across adolescence and early adulthood. In a sample of 1,354 serious juvenile offenders, higher exposure to violence was associated with lower levels of future orientation at age 15 and suppressed development of future orientation from ages 15 to 25. Increases in witnessing violence or victimization were linked to declines in impulse control 1 year later, but only during adolescence. Thus, beyond previous experiences of exposure to violence, witnessing violence and victimization during adolescence conveys unique risk for suppressed development of self-regulation.

Moderating effect of age on the association between future time perspective and preventive coping.

PubMed

Chen, Tao; Liu, Lu-Lu; Cui, Ji-Fang; Chen, Xing-Jie; Shi, Hai-Song; Neumann, David L; Shum, David H K; Wang, Ya; Chan, Raymond C K

2017-09-01

The present study aimed to investigate the moderating effect of age on the relationship between future time perspective (FTP) and future-oriented coping. A total of 1,915 participants aged 9-84 years completed measures of FTP and future-oriented coping. Moderation analyses were conducted to examine whether age played a role in the association between FTP and future-oriented coping (proactive and preventive). Results showed that proactive and preventive coping were negatively correlated with age, and age moderated the association between FTP and preventive coping but not proactive coping. Furthermore, the strength of the positive association between FTP and preventive coping was strongest among the older participants, moderate among the middle-aged participants, and weakest among the younger participants. These results suggest that the association between FTP and preventive coping varies across the lifespan. © 2017 The Institute of Psychology, Chinese Academy of Sciences and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

The effects of budget, delegation, and other variables on the future of school nursing.

PubMed

Tetuan, Theresa M; Akagi, Cynthia G

2004-12-01

The purpose of this exploratory research study was to survey Kansas school nurses to determine the impact of budget, delegation, and other variables on the future of school nursing. Issues of education and certification status, educational budget, delegation, school nurse-to-student ratio, number of school buildings assigned, Metropolitan Statistical Area, and years of school nursing experience were also investigated. The Budget Impact School Nurse Questionnaire online survey was used to gather data. Findings revealed that school nurses were well prepared academically, but that many school nurses lacked certification. The use of UAPs and the future of school nursing were significantly affected by budget constraints, delegation, number of buildings assigned, legislative contact, and Metropolitan Statistical Area (urban location). Education in delegation and years of experience as a school nurse significantly affected opportunities for health education. The findings depicted budget, school nurse staffing, delegation, and geographic areas as the main variables that have an impact on school nursing.

Elementary Teachers' Experiences and Perceptions of Departmentalized Instruction: A Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Strohl, Alecia; Schmertzing, Lorraine; Schmertzing, Richard

2014-01-01

This case study investigated elementary teachers' experiences and perceptions during a trial year of departmentalized instruction in a rural south Georgia elementary school. To inform their decision about whole-school departmentalization for the future, school administrators appointed twelve first through third grade teachers to pilot the…

Service-Learning and Interior Design: A Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sterling, Mary

2007-01-01

The case study approach was used to analyze experiential learning through its three components: knowledge, action, and reflection. Two interior design courses were integrated through a university service-learning project. The restoration/adaptive reuse of a 95-year-old library building was to serve as a prototype for future off-campus…

College Students with Disabilities: Their Future and Success

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fichten, Catherine S.; Jorgensen, Shirley; Havel, Alice; Barile, Maria

2006-01-01

The Adaptech Research Network in collaboration with our partners recently completed three studies whose goal was to explore obstacles and facilitators to college studies and examine what happens to college graduates with and without disabilities a year after graduation. Participants were: 182 graduates with and 1304 without disabilities from three…

Silicon materials outlook study for 1980-1985 calendar years

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Costogue, E.; Ferber, R.; Hasbach, W.; Pellin, R.; Yaws, C.

1979-01-01

The polycrystalline silicon industry was studied in relation to future market needs. Analysis of the data obtained indicates that there is a high probability of polycrystalline silicon shortage by the end of 1982 and a strong seller's market after 1981 which will foster price competition for available silicon.

Developing Entrepreneurial Competence among Minnesota's Technical Institute Students.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Minnesota State Council on Vocational Technical Education, St. Paul.

Following up a 1987 study that had identified 1,169 entrepreneurial graduates of Minnesota's technical institutes from the 10-year time period prior to 1984, a study was conducted to determine how Minnesota's technical institutes presently promote entrepreneurial competence for their students and how they can help future students. Questionnaires…

Relaxin-2 in Cardiometabolic Diseases: Mechanisms of Action and Future Perspectives

PubMed Central

Feijóo-Bandín, Sandra; Aragón-Herrera, Alana; Rodríguez-Penas, Diego; Portolés, Manuel; Roselló-Lletí, Esther; Rivera, Miguel; González-Juanatey, José R.; Lago, Francisca

2017-01-01

Despite the great effort of the medical community during the last decades, cardiovascular diseases remain the leading cause of death worldwide, increasing their prevalence every year mainly due to our new way of life. In the last years, the study of new hormones implicated in the regulation of energy metabolism and inflammation has raised a great interest among the scientific community regarding their implications in the development of cardiometabolic diseases. In this review, we will summarize the main actions of relaxin, a pleiotropic hormone that was previously suggested to improve acute heart failure and that participates in both metabolism and inflammation regulation at cardiovascular level, and will discuss its potential as future therapeutic target to prevent/reduce cardiovascular diseases. PMID:28868039

Future methane emissions from animals

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anastasi, C.; Simpson, V.J.

1993-04-20

The authors project future methane emissions from animals to the year 2025. They review the present estimated sources of methane from enteric fermentation in animals. Ruminant animals produce the highest concentrations of methane. Methane is a byproduct of anaerobic breakdown of carbohydrates by microbes in the digestive tract of herbatious animals. In general the methane production depends on the variety of animal, the quality of the feed, and the feeding level. Since cattle, sheep, and buffalo account for roughly 91% of all animal methane emission, they only study these animals in detail. Results suggest a rise in methane production ofmore » roughly 1% per year averaged through 2025. Increasing levels are found to originate from developed countries even though the feedstock levels are lower.« less

Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis of Impacts of Future Heat Waves on Mortality in the Eastern United States

PubMed Central

Wu, Jianyong; Zhou, Ying; Gao, Yang; Fu, Joshua S.; Johnson, Brent A.; Huang, Cheng; Kim, Young-Min

2013-01-01

Background: Climate change is anticipated to influence heat-related mortality in the future. However, estimates of excess mortality attributable to future heat waves are subject to large uncertainties and have not been projected under the latest greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Objectives: We estimated future heat wave mortality in the eastern United States (approximately 1,700 counties) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and investigated sources of uncertainty. Methods: Using dynamically downscaled hourly temperature projections for 2057–2059, we projected heat wave days that were defined using four heat wave metrics and estimated the excess mortality attributable to them. We apportioned the sources of uncertainty in excess mortality estimates using a variance-decomposition method. Results: Estimates suggest that excess mortality attributable to heat waves in the eastern United States would result in 200–7,807 deaths/year (mean 2,379 deaths/year) in 2057–2059. Average excess mortality projections under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were 1,403 and 3,556 deaths/year, respectively. Excess mortality would be relatively high in the southern states and eastern coastal areas (excluding Maine). The major sources of uncertainty were the relative risk estimates for mortality on heat wave versus non–heat wave days, the RCP scenarios, and the heat wave definitions. Conclusions: Mortality risks from future heat waves may be an order of magnitude higher than the mortality risks reported in 2002–2004, with thousands of heat wave–related deaths per year in the study area projected under the RCP8.5 scenario. Substantial spatial variability in county-level heat mortality estimates suggests that effective mitigation and adaptation measures should be developed based on spatially resolved data. Citation: Wu J, Zhou Y, Gao Y, Fu JS, Johnson BA, Huang C, Kim YM, Liu Y. 2014. Estimation and uncertainty analysis of impacts of future heat waves on mortality in the eastern United States. Environ Health Perspect 122:10–16; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1306670 PMID:24192064

Analysis of possible future atmospheric retention of fossil fuel CO/sub 2/

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Edmonds, J.A.; Reilly, J.; Trabalka, J.R.

1984-09-01

This report investigates the likely rates and the potential range of future CO/sub 2/ emissions, combined with knowledge of the global cycle of carbon, to estimate a possible range of future atmospheric CO/sub 2/ concentrations through the year 2075. Historic fossil fuel usage to the present, growing at a rate of 4.5% per year until 1973 and at a slower rate of 1.9% after 1973, was combined with three scenarios of projected emissions growth ranging from approximately 0.2 to 2.8% per year to provide annual CO/sub 2/ emissions data for two different carbon cycle models. The emissions scenarios were constructedmore » using an energy-economic model and by varying key parameters within the bounds of currently expected future values. The extreme values for CO/sub 2/ emissions in the year 2075 are 6.8 x 10/sup 15/ and 91 x 10/sup 15/ g C year/sup -1/. Carbon cycle model simulations used a range of year - 1800 preindustrial atmospheric concentrations of 245 to 292 ppM CO/sub 2/ and three scenarios of bioshere conversion as additional atmospheric CO/sub 2/ source terms. These simulations yield a range of possible atmospheric CO/sub 2/ concentrations in year 2075 of approximately 500 to 1500 ppM, with a median of about 700 ppM. The time at which atmospheric CO/sub 2/ would potentially double from the preindustrial level ranges from year 2025 to >2075. The practical, programmatic value of this forecast exercise is that it forces quantitative definition of the assumptions, and the uncertainties therein, which form the basis of our understanding of the natural biogeochemical cycle of carbon and both historic and future human influences on the dynamics of the global cycle. Assumptions about the possible range of future atmospheric CO/sub 2/ levels provide a basis on which to evaluate the implications of these changes on climate and the biosphere. 44 references, 17 figures, 21 tables.« less

Forecasting future needs and optimal allocation of medical residency positions: the Emilia-Romagna Region case study.

PubMed

Senese, Francesca; Tubertini, Paolo; Mazzocchetti, Angelina; Lodi, Andrea; Ruozi, Corrado; Grilli, Roberto

2015-01-30

Italian regional health authorities annually negotiate the number of residency grants to be financed by the National government and the number and mix of supplementary grants to be funded by the regional budget. This study provides regional decision-makers with a requirement model to forecast the future demand of specialists at the regional level. We have developed a system dynamics (SD) model that projects the evolution of the supply of medical specialists and three demand scenarios across the planning horizon (2030). Demand scenarios account for different drivers: demography, service utilization rates (ambulatory care and hospital discharges) and hospital beds. Based on the SD outputs (occupational and training gaps), a mixed integer programming (MIP) model computes potentially effective assignments of medical specialization grants for each year of the projection. To simulate the allocation of grants, we have compared how regional and national grants can be managed in order to reduce future gaps with respect to current training patterns. The allocation of 25 supplementary grants per year does not appear as effective in reducing expected occupational gaps as the re-modulation of all regional training vacancies.

The ICES Working Group on Zooplankton Ecology: Accomplishments of the first 25 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiebe, Peter H.; Harris, Roger; Gislason, Astthor; Margonski, Piotr; Skjoldal, Hein Rune; Benfield, Mark; Hay, Steve; O'Brien, Todd; Valdés, Luis

2016-02-01

The ICES Study Group on Zooplankton Ecology was created in 1991 to address issues of current and future concern within the field of zooplankton ecology. Within three years it became the ICES Working Group on Zooplankton Ecology (ICES WGZE) and this unique group in the world's oceanographic community has now been active for 25 years. This article reviews and synthesizes the products, and major accomplishments of the group. Achievements of the group, including the Zooplankton Methodology Manual, the Zooplankton Status Reports, and the International Zooplankton Symposia, have had an important impact on the wider field. Among the future issues that remain to be addressed by the group are the assessment of exploratory fisheries on zooplankton and micronekton species; further development of the zooplankton time-series; compilation and integration of allometric relationships for zooplankton species, and evaluation of new methodologies for the study of zooplankton distribution, abundance, physiology, and genetics. Marine science is an increasingly global undertaking and groups such as the ICES WGZE will continue to be essential to the advancement of understanding of zooplankton community structure and population dynamics in the world's oceans.

A nursing career in mental health care: choices and motives of nursing students.

PubMed

Hoekstra, Hanneke J; van Meijel, Berno B; van der Hooft-Leemans, Truus G

2010-01-01

This article describes the results of a study into how first-year nursing students' perceptions of psychiatric patients and mental health care influence their choice of specialization in mental health care and future working in this sector. A descriptive qualitative study design with semi-structured interviews. Respondents were selected through purposive sampling among all first-year bachelor students attending a Dutch school of nursing. First-year nursing students have stereotype, mostly negative perceptions of psychiatric patients and mental health care. These perceptions strongly influence their future professional choices. The respondents provided various reasons for their decision not to major in mental health care, one of these being that the school did too little to counsel and inform them about mental health issues and a career in mental health care. As a result, their unrealistic perceptions prevailed. If schools offering bachelor of nursing programmes do not sufficiently counsel and inform students about mental health care, students will leave school with their stereotype, negative perception of mental health care intact. Mental health care institutions will run a great risk of losing potentially good nurses.

Prediction of future subsurface temperatures in Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Y.; Kim, S. K.; Jeong, J.; SHIN, E.

2017-12-01

The importance of climate change has been increasingly recognized because it has had the huge amount of impact on social, economic, and environmental aspect. For the reason, paleoclimate change has been studied intensively using different geological tools including borehole temperatures and future surface air temperatures (SATs) have been predicted for the local areas and the globe. Future subsurface temperatures can have also enormous impact on various areas and be predicted by an analytical method or a numerical simulation using measured and predicted SATs, and thermal diffusivity data of rocks. SATs have been measured at 73 meteorological observatories since 1907 in Korea and predicted at same locations up to the year of 2100. Measured SATs at the Seoul meteorological observatory increased by about 3.0 K from the year of 1907 to the present. Predicted SATs have 4 different scenarios depending on mainly CO2 concentration and national action plan on climate change in the future. The hottest scenario shows that SATs in Korea will increase by about 5.0 K from the present to the year of 2100. In addition, thermal diffusivity values have been measured on 2,903 rock samples collected from entire Korea. Data pretreatment based on autocorrelation analysis was conducted to control high frequency noise in thermal diffusivity data. Finally, future subsurface temperatures in Korea were predicted up to the year of 2100 by a FEM simulation code (COMSOL Multiphysics) using measured and predicted SATs, and thermal diffusivity data in Korea. At Seoul, the results of predictions show that subsurface temperatures will increase by about 5.4 K, 3.0 K, 1.5 K, and 0.2 K from the present to 2050 and then by about 7.9 K, 4.8 K, 2.5 K, and 0.5 K to 2100 at the depths of 10 m, 50 m, 100 m, and 200 m, respectively. We are now proceeding numerical simulations for subsurface temperature predictions for 73 locations in Korea.

Parental preparedness for late effects and long-term quality of life in survivors of childhood cancer.

PubMed

Greenzang, Katie A; Cronin, Angel M; Mack, Jennifer W

2016-08-15

Parents of children with cancer desire information regarding the late effects of treatment. In the current study, the authors assessed parents' preparedness for late effects at least 5 years after their child's diagnosis. A cross-sectional survey was conducted of all eligible parents of children with cancer between April 2004 and September 2005 at Dana-Farber/Boston Children's Cancer and Blood Disorders Center within 1 year of diagnosis, and a follow-up questionnaire was administered at least 5 years later. Approximately 66% of parents of children who were still living, and who were able to be contacted, completed the follow-up questionnaire (91 of 138 parents). Approximately 77% of respondents (70 of 91 respondents) were parents of disease-free survivors and 23% (21 of 91 respondents) were parents of children with recurrent disease. The majority of parents believed they were well prepared for their child's oncology treatment (87%), but fewer felt prepared for future limitations experienced by their children (70%; P = .003 using the McNemar test) or for life after cancer (62%; P<.001). On bivariable analysis among parents of disease-free survivors, parents were more likely to believe themselves to be prepared for future limitations when they also reported that communication with the oncologist helped to address worries regarding the future (odds ratio, 4.50; P = .01). At the time of diagnosis, both parents and physicians underestimated a child's risk of future limitations; 45% of parents and 39% of clinicians predicted future limitations in physical abilities, intelligence, or quality of life, but at the time of the follow-up questionnaire >5 years later, 72% of children experienced limitations in at least 1 domain. Parents believe themselves to be less prepared for survivorship than for treatment. High-quality communication may help parents to feel more prepared for life after cancer therapy. Cancer 2016;122:2587-94. © 2016 American Cancer Society. © 2016 American Cancer Society.

ALTERNATIVE FUTURES ANALYSIS: A FRAMEWORK FOR COMMUNITY DECISION-MAKING

EPA Science Inventory

Alternative futures analysis is an assessment approach designed to inform community decisions about land and water use. We conducted an alternative futures analysis in Oregon's Willamette River Basin. Three alternative future landscapes for the year 2050 were depicted and compare...

Executive function and falls in older adults: new findings from a five-year prospective study link fall risk to cognition.

PubMed

Mirelman, Anat; Herman, Talia; Brozgol, Marina; Dorfman, Moran; Sprecher, Elliot; Schweiger, Avraham; Giladi, Nir; Hausdorff, Jeffrey M

2012-01-01

Recent findings suggest that executive function (EF) plays a critical role in the regulation of gait in older adults, especially under complex and challenging conditions, and that EF deficits may, therefore, contribute to fall risk. The objective of this study was to evaluate if reduced EF is a risk factor for future falls over the course of 5 years of follow-up. Secondary objectives were to assess whether single and dual task walking abilities, an alternative window into EF, were associated with fall risk. We longitudinally followed 256 community-living older adults (age: 76.4±4.5 yrs; 61% women) who were dementia free and had good mobility upon entrance into the study. At baseline, a computerized cognitive battery generated an index of EF, attention, a closely related construct, and other cognitive domains. Gait was assessed during single and dual task conditions. Falls data were collected prospectively using monthly calendars. Negative binomial regression quantified risk ratios (RR). After adjusting for age, gender and the number of falls in the year prior to the study, only the EF index (RR: .85; CI: .74-.98, p = .021), the attention index (RR: .84; CI: .75-.94, p = .002) and dual tasking gait variability (RR: 1.11; CI: 1.01-1.23; p = .027) were associated with future fall risk. Other cognitive function measures were not related to falls. Survival analyses indicated that subjects with the lowest EF scores were more likely to fall sooner and more likely to experience multiple falls during the 66 months of follow-up (p<0.02). These findings demonstrate that among community-living older adults, the risk of future falls was predicted by performance on EF and attention tests conducted 5 years earlier. The present results link falls among older adults to cognition, indicating that screening EF will likely enhance fall risk assessment, and that treatment of EF may reduce fall risk.

Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder: identifying high priority future research needs.

PubMed

Gaynes, Bradley N; Christian, Robert; Saavedra, Lissette M; Wines, Roberta; Jonas, Daniel E; Viswanathan, Meera; Ellis, Alan R; Woodell, Carol; Carey, Timothy S

2014-03-01

With onset often occurring before 6 years of age, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) involves attention problems, impulsivity, overactivity, and sometimes disruptive behavior. Impairment usually persists into adulthood, with an estimated worldwide prevalence in adults of 2.5%. Existing gaps in evidence concerning ADHD hinder decision-making about treatment. This article describes and prioritizes future research needs for ADHD in three areas: treatment effectiveness for at-risk preschoolers; long-term treatment effectiveness; and variability in prevalence, diagnosis, and treatment.Using a recent systematic review concerning ADHD completed by a different evidence-based practice center as a foundation, we worked with a diverse group of 12 stakeholders, who represented researchers, funders, healthcare providers, patients, and families, to identify and prioritize research needs. From an initial list of 29 evidence gaps, we enumerated 8 high-priority research needs: a) accurate, brief standardized diagnosis and assessment; b) comparative effectiveness and safety of pharmacologic treatments for children under 6 years of age; c) comparative effectiveness of different combinations of psychosocial and pharmacologic treatments for children under 6 years of age; d) case identification and measurement of prevalence and outcomes; e) comparative effectiveness of psychosocial treatment alone versus pharmacologic and combination treatments for children under 6 years of age; f) comparative long-term treatment effectiveness for people 6 years of age and older; g) relative efficacy of specific psychosocial program components for children under 6 years of age; and h) identification of person-level effect modifiers for people 6 years of age and older. In this article, we describe these future research needs in detail and discuss study designs that could be used to address them.

Why school students choose and reject science: a study of the factors that students consider when selecting subjects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palmer, Tracey-Ann; Burke, Paul F.; Aubusson, Peter

2017-04-01

Student study of science at school has been linked to the need to provide a scientifically capable workforce and a scientifically literate society. Educators, scientists, and policymakers are concerned that too few students are choosing science for study in their final years of school. How and why students choose and reject certain subjects, including science, at this time is unclear. A Best-Worst Scaling (BWS) survey was completed by 333 Year 10 (age 14-17) students to investigate the relative importance of 21 factors thought to impact students' subject-selection decisions. Students ranked enjoyment, interest and ability in a subject, and its perceived need in their future study or career plans as the most important factors in both choosing and rejecting subjects. They considered advice from teachers, parents or peers as relatively less important. These findings indicate that enhancing students' enjoyment, interest, and perceptions of their ability in science, as well as increasing student perceptions of its value in a future career, may result in more students studying science at school.

Assessing the effects of adaptation measures on optimal water resources allocation under varied water availability conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Dedi; Guo, Shenglian; Shao, Quanxi; Liu, Pan; Xiong, Lihua; Wang, Le; Hong, Xingjun; Xu, Yao; Wang, Zhaoli

2018-01-01

Human activities and climate change have altered the spatial and temporal distribution of water availability which is a principal prerequisite for allocation of different water resources. In order to quantify the impacts of climate change and human activities on water availability and optimal allocation of water resources, hydrological models and optimal water resource allocation models should be integrated. Given that increasing human water demand and varying water availability conditions necessitate adaptation measures, we propose a framework to assess the effects of these measures on optimal allocation of water resources. The proposed model and framework were applied to a case study of the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River Basin in China. Two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP4.5) were employed to project future climate, and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model was used to simulate the variability of flows under historical (1956-2011) and future (2012-2099) conditions. The water availability determined by simulating flow with the VIC hydrological model was used to establish the optimal water resources allocation model. The allocation results were derived under an extremely dry year (with an annual average water flow frequency of 95%), a very dry year (with an annual average water flow frequency of 90%), a dry year (with an annual average water flow frequency of 75%), and a normal year (with an annual average water flow frequency of 50%) during historical and future periods. The results show that the total available water resources in the study area and the inflow of the Danjiangkou Reservoir will increase in the future. However, the uneven distribution of water availability will cause water shortage problems, especially in the boundary areas. The effects of adaptation measures, including water saving, and dynamic control of flood limiting water levels (FLWLs) for reservoir operation, were assessed and implemented to alleviate water shortages. The negative impacts from the South-to-North Water Transfer Project (Middle Route) in the mid-lower reaches of the Hanjiang River Basin can be avoided through the dynamic control of FLWLs in Danjiangkou Reservoir, under the historical and future RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios. However, the effects of adaptation measures are limited due to their own constraints, such as the characteristics of the reservoirs influencing the FLWLs. The utilization of storm water appears necessary to meet future water demand. Overall, the results indicate that the framework for assessing the effects of adaptation measures on water resources allocation might aid water resources management, not only in the study area but also in other places where water availability conditions vary due to climate change and human activities.

AIDS (Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome): Views on the Administration’s Fiscal Year 1989 Public Health Service Budget

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-06-01

200,000 for the CenterE for Disease Control (CDC) to study AIDS. For fiscal year 1989, the proposed federal PHS budget increased to $1.3 billion for...to educate the public, $40( million (31 percent); -- epidemiological studies and surveillance to understand and track the spread of the disease , $229...potential impact of the AIDS epidemic. Investing in prevention now can help contain the direct and indirect costs of the disease in the future. As it

Do Future Teachers Choose Wisely? A Study of Pre-Service Teachers' Personality Preference Profiles

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thornton, Bill; Peltier, Gary; Hill, Gus

2005-01-01

The No Child Left Behind Act requires that all teachers in core academic subjects to be "highly qualified" by the end of the 2005-06 school year. New teacher leave the profession at an alarming rate--research indicates that 50% have left within five years of their first job. This article explores the personality types of pre-service…

Where Can We Find Future K-12 Science and Math Teachers? A Search by Academic Year, Discipline, and Academic Performance Level

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moin, Laura J.; Dorfield, Jennifer K.; Schunn, Christian D.

2005-01-01

Responding to the increasing math and science teacher shortage in the United States, this study intended to determine which science, engineering, and math (SEM) majors during which years in their undergraduate education and from which academic performance levels are most interested in K-12 teaching. Results may aid policymakers and practitioners…

Hardwood regeneration twenty years after three distinct diameter-limit cuts in upland central hardwoods

Treesearch

Randall B. Heiligmann; Jeffery S. Ward

1993-01-01

The effects of diameter-limit cutting on the future species composition and development of 60-80 year-old upland oak stands were studied in southern Ohio. Four treatments, 11-inch diameter-limit cut, 14-inch diameter-limit cut with selective thinning, 14-inch diameter-limit cut with low thinning, and uncut control were evaluated on medium oak sites (black oak site...

Hope Lives in the Heart: Refugee and Immigrant Children's Perceptions of Hope and Hope-Engendering Sources during Early Years of Adjustment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yohani, Sophie C.; Larsen, Denise J.

2009-01-01

Children's adjustment to resettlement countries is vitally important to future outcomes, yet little attention is given to the role of hope in this process. This research focused on expressions of hope in 10 refugee and immigrant children during early years of resettlement. Using case study methods that employed arts-based data collection,…

A Study of Current Trends and Issues for Graphics Education: Results from a Five-Year Follow-Up Survey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clark, Aaron C.; Scales, Alice Y.

2006-01-01

During the 1998-1999 academic year, a survey was conducted to look at current trends and issues in the profession of graphics education (Clark & Scales, 1999). The survey solicited information from the membership of the Engineering Design Graphics Division of the American Society for Engineering Education related to their view of future areas of…

Stand development and yields of Appalachian hardwood stands managed with single-tree selection for at least 30 years

Treesearch

Neil I Lamson; H. Clay Smith; H. Clay Smith

1991-01-01

Appalachian hardwood stands in West Virginia were managed for 30 or more years using single-tree selection regeneration practices. Stand yield data suggest that current stand growth will provide economical harvest cuts for several future cutting cycles. This case study indicates that the single-tree selection practice has potential for landowners who want to maintain...

Teachers' Perceptions of Culturally Responsive Pedagogy and the Impact on Leadership Preparation: Lessons for Future Reform Efforts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mette, Ian M.; Nieuwenhuizen, Lisa; Hvidston, David J.

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of one school's teacher-driven professional development effort to address culturally responsive teaching practices in a large district in a Midwestern state. During the 2011-2012 school year, a team of teachers and principals began a three-year long effort to provide job-embedded professional…

A multi-country study of dengue vaccination strategies with Dengvaxia and a future vaccine candidate in three dengue-endemic countries: Vietnam, Thailand, and Colombia.

PubMed

Lee, Jung-Seok; Lourenço, José; Gupta, Sunetra; Farlow, Andrew

2018-04-19

The dengue vaccination era began when Dengvaxia (CYD-TDV) became available in 2016. In addition, several second-generation vaccine candidates are currently in phase 3 trials, suggesting that a broader availability of dengue vaccines may be possible in the near future. Advancing on the recent WHO-SAGE recommendations for the safe and effective use of CYD-TDV at the regional level on average, this study investigates the vaccination impacts and cost-effectiveness of CYD-TDV and of a hypothetical new vaccine candidate (NVC) in a country-specific manner for three endemic countries: Vietnam, Thailand, and Colombia. The vaccination impacts of CYD-TDV and NVC were derived by fitting the empirical seroprevalence rates of 9 year olds into an individual-based meta-population transmission model, previously used for the WHO-SAGE working group. The disability-adjusted life years were estimated by applying country-specific parametric values. The cost-effectiveness analyses of four intervention strategies in combination with routine and catch-up campaigns were compared for both vaccines to inform decision makers regarding the most suitable immunization program in each of the three countries. Both CYD-TDV and NVC could be cost-effective at the DALY threshold cost of $2000 depending upon vaccination costs. With CYD-TDV, targeting 9 year olds in routine vaccination programs and 10-29 year olds as a one-off catch-up campaign was the most cost-effective strategy in all three countries. With NVC, while the most cost-effective strategy was to vaccinate 9-29 and 9-18 year olds in Vietnam and Thailand respectively, vaccinating younger age cohorts between 1 and 5 years old in Colombia was more cost-effective than other strategies. Given that three countries will soon face decisions regarding whether and how to incorporate CYD-TDV or future dengue vaccines into their budget-constrained national immunization programs, the current study outcomes can be used to help decision makers understand the expected impacts and cost-effectiveness of such vaccines. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Association Between Self-Assessed Future Work Ability and Long-Term Sickness Absence, Disability Pension and Unemployment in a General Working Population: A 7-Year Follow-Up Study.

PubMed

Lundin, A; Kjellberg, K; Leijon, O; Punnett, L; Hemmingsson, T

2016-06-01

Purpose Work ability is commonly measured with self-assessments, in the form of indices or single items. The validity of these assessments lies in their predictive ability. Prospective studies have reported associations between work ability and sickness absence and disability pension, but few examined why these associations exist. Several correlates of work ability have been reported, but their mechanistic role is largely unknown. This study aims to investigate to what extent individual's own prognosis of work ability predicts labor market participation and whether this was due to individual characteristics and/or working conditions. Methods Self-assessed prognosis of work ability, 2 years from "now," in the Stockholm Public Health Questionnaire (2002-2003) was linked to national registers on sickness absence, disability pension and unemployment up to year 2010. Effects were studied with Cox regression models. Results Of a total of 12,064 individuals 1466 reported poor work ability. There were 299 cases of disability pension, 1466 long-term sickness absence cases and 765 long-term unemployed during follow-up. Poor work ability increased the risk of long-term sickness absence (HR 2.25, CI 95 % 1.97-2.56), disability pension (HR 5.19, CI 95 % 4.07-6.62), and long-term unemployment (HR 2.18, CI 95 % 1.83-2.60). These associations were partially explained by baseline health conditions, physical and (less strongly) psychosocial aspects of working conditions. Conclusions Self-assessed poor ability predicted future long-term sickness absence, disability pension and long-term unemployment. Self-assessed poor work ability seems to be an indicator of future labor market exclusion of different kinds, and can be used in public health monitoring.

[Stability of long-term professional objectives of young physicians during postgraduate training. Results of a multicenter cohort study].

PubMed

Birck, S; Gedrose, B; Robra, B-P; Schmidt, A; Schultz, J-H; Stosch, C; Wagner, R; Janßen, N; Scherer, M; van den Bussche, H

2014-10-01

We investigated persistences and changes of career preferences of medical residents in Germany after two years of postgraduate training with regard to future working place and position. The results are compared with those forwarded at graduation from medical school in a gender comparative perspective. The study is based on a standardized postal survey among the participants in the "KarMed" study, originally based on 1012 graduates of the medical faculties of Erlangen, Giessen, Hamburg, Heidelberg, Cologne, Leipzig and Magdeburg in 2009. 2107 persons were contacted. The return rate at baseline was 48 %, and the two surveys after the baseline reached return rates of 87 % and 89 % respectively. In all samples 2/3 were women as in actual medical undergraduate education. Descriptive statistics and regression analysis were performed. After 2 years of residency, residents after 2 years of postgraduate training still preferred the hospital over private practice as their final workplace after postgraduate training. The attractiveness of leading positions in the hospital declined among men, whereas it was already low for women at graduation. A large proportion of those physicians preferring the ambulatory sector, especially women, wishes to work as employee instead of private practice. At the personal level, almost 60 % forwarded the same preferences as those at graduation. Gender, parenthood and region of study (East vs. West Germany) did not influence stability or change of preferences. The results demonstrate the persistence of professional preferences regarding future sector and position of medical work during postgraduate training. These preferences do neither match with principles of gender equality nor with future workforce needs (e. g. in primary care). © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Air Quality and Health Impacts of Future Ethanol Production and Use in São Paulo State, Brazil.

PubMed

Scovronick, Noah; França, Daniela; Alonso, Marcelo; Almeida, Claudia; Longo, Karla; Freitas, Saulo; Rudorff, Bernardo; Wilkinson, Paul

2016-07-11

It is often argued that liquid biofuels are cleaner than fossil fuels, and therefore better for human health, however, the evidence on this issue is still unclear. Brazil's high uptake of ethanol and role as a major producer makes it the most appropriate case study to assess the merits of different biofuel policies. Accordingly, we modeled the impact on air quality and health of two future fuel scenarios in São Paulo State: a business-as-usual scenario where ethanol production and use proceeds according to government predictions and a counterfactual scenario where ethanol is frozen at 2010 levels and future transport fuel demand is met with gasoline. The population-weighted exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone was 3.0 μg/m³ and 0.3 ppb lower, respectively, in 2020 in the scenario emphasizing gasoline compared with the business-as-usual (ethanol) scenario. The lower exposure to both pollutants in the gasoline scenario would result in the population living 1100 additional life-years in the first year, and if sustained, would increase to 40,000 life-years in year 20 and continue to rise. Without additional measures to limit emissions, increasing the use of ethanol in Brazil could lead to higher air pollution-related population health burdens when compared to policy that prioritizes gasoline.

Air Quality and Health Impacts of Future Ethanol Production and Use in São Paulo State, Brazil

PubMed Central

Scovronick, Noah; França, Daniela; Alonso, Marcelo; Almeida, Claudia; Longo, Karla; Freitas, Saulo; Rudorff, Bernardo; Wilkinson, Paul

2016-01-01

It is often argued that liquid biofuels are cleaner than fossil fuels, and therefore better for human health, however, the evidence on this issue is still unclear. Brazil’s high uptake of ethanol and role as a major producer makes it the most appropriate case study to assess the merits of different biofuel policies. Accordingly, we modeled the impact on air quality and health of two future fuel scenarios in São Paulo State: a business-as-usual scenario where ethanol production and use proceeds according to government predictions and a counterfactual scenario where ethanol is frozen at 2010 levels and future transport fuel demand is met with gasoline. The population-weighted exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone was 3.0 μg/m3 and 0.3 ppb lower, respectively, in 2020 in the scenario emphasizing gasoline compared with the business-as-usual (ethanol) scenario. The lower exposure to both pollutants in the gasoline scenario would result in the population living 1100 additional life-years in the first year, and if sustained, would increase to 40,000 life-years in year 20 and continue to rise. Without additional measures to limit emissions, increasing the use of ethanol in Brazil could lead to higher air pollution-related population health burdens when compared to policy that prioritizes gasoline. PMID:27409628

Next-Generation X-Ray Astronomy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, Nicholas E.

2011-01-01

The future timing capabilities in X-ray astronomy will be reviewed. This will include reviewing the missions in implementation: Astro-H, GEMS, SRG, and ASTROSAT; those under study: currently ATHENA and LOFT; and new technologies that may enable future missions e.g. Lobster eye optics. These missions and technologies will bring exciting new capabilities across the entire time spectrum from micro-seconds to years that e.g. will allow us to probe close to the event horizon of black holes and constrain the equation of state of neutron stars.

Space life sciences: A status report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1990-01-01

The scientific research and supporting technology development conducted in the Space Life Sciences Program is described. Accomplishments of the past year are highlighted. Plans for future activities are outlined. Some specific areas of study include the following: Crew health and safety; What happens to humans in space; Gravity, life, and space; Sustenance in space; Life and planet Earth; Life in the Universe; Promoting good science and good will; Building a future for the space life sciences; and Benefits of space life sciences research.

Selected anthropometric indices of maritime university students.

PubMed

Rębacz-Maron, Ewa

2015-01-01

Overweight and obesity during working life are becoming an increasingly serious challenge to various professional groups where recruits and personnel must be healthy and fit. Marine recruitment, even at the training stage, should be open to applicants who meet health and fitness criteria. The objective of the study is to determine the overweight and adiposity rates among seafarer candidates (n = 368). Based on anthropometric measurements and somatic indices the extent of obesity among marine students/ /future seafarers was investigated. In the groups identified according to the year of study, arithmetic averages (SD - standard deviation) were calculated for somatometric characteristics, and were then used to analyse the phenomena of overweight and obesity. The comparison was performed using the Kruskal-Wallis test, one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) by ranks. The highest average body mass index (BMI) score was found in fourth-year students (mean BMI 25.7 ± 2.8). The average BMI for years one and two was in the upper range of 'healthy' weight. In 24.0% of first-year students and 32.2% of second-year students, the waist circumference was higher than half of the body height. Body fat percentage results indicate that this feature is highly variable, with a strong upward trend. Findings regarding overweight among future seamen give cause for concern. The participants of the study were characterised by excessive weight and adiposity. Recruitment criteria for uniformed services are not as restrictive as they used to be, as it is getting increasingly more difficult to find sufficiently slim and fit applicants.

A new method to evaluate future impact of vehicle safety technology in Sweden.

PubMed

Strandroth, Johan; Sternlund, Simon; Tingvall, Claes; Johansson, Roger; Rizzi, Matteo; Kullgren, Anders

2012-10-01

In the design of a safe road transport system there is a need to better understand the safety challenges lying ahead. One way of doing that is to evaluate safety technology with retrospective analysis of crashes. However, by using retros- pective data there is the risk of adapting safety innovations to scenarios irrelevant in the future. Also, challenges arise as safety interventions do not act alone but are rather interacting components in a complex road transport system. The objective of this study was therefore to facilitate the prioritizing of road safety measures by developing and applying a new method to consider possible impact of future vehicle safety technology. The key point was to project the chain of events leading to a crash today into the crashes for a given time in the future. Assumptions on implementation on safety technologies were made and these assump- tions were applied on the crashes of today. It was estimated which crashes would be prevented and the residual was analyzed to identify the characteristics of future crashes. The Swedish Transport Administration's in-depth studies of fatal crashes from 2010 involving car passengers (n=156) were used. This study estimated that the number of killed car occupant would be reduced with 53 percent from the year 2010 to 2020. Through this new method, valuable information regarding the characteristic of the future crashes was found. The results of this study showed that it was possible to evaluate future impact of vehicle safety technology if detailed and representative crash data is available.

Clinical skills development in student-run free clinic volunteers: a multi-trait, multi-measure study.

PubMed

Nakamura, Mio; Altshuler, David; Chadwell, Margit; Binienda, Juliann

2014-12-12

At Wayne State University School of Medicine (WSU SOM), the Robert R. Frank Student Run Free Clinic (SRFC) is one place preclinical students can gain clinical experience. There have been no published studies to date measuring the impact of student-run free clinic (SRFC) volunteerism on clinical skills development in preclinical medical students. Surveys were given to first year medical students at WSU SOM at the beginning and end of Year 1 to assess perception of clinical skills, including self-confidence, self-reflection, and professionalism. Scores of the Year 1 Objective Structured Clinical Exam (OSCE) were compared between SRFC volunteers and non-volunteers. There were a total of 206 (68.2%) and 80 (26.5%) survey responses at the beginning and end of Year 1, respectively. Of the 80 students, 31 (38.7%) volunteered at SRFC during Year 1. Statistically significant differences were found between time points in self-confidence (p < 0.001) in both groups. When looking at self-confidence in skills pertaining to SRFC, the difference between groups was statistically significant (p = 0.032) at both time points. A total of 302 students participated in the Year 1 OSCE, 27 (9%) of which were SRFC volunteers. No statistically significant differences were found between groups for mean score (p = 0.888) and established level of rapport (p = 0.394). While this study indicated no significant differences in clinical skills in students who volunteer at the SRFC, it is a first step in attempting to measure clinical skill development outside of the structured medical school setting. The findings lend themselves to development of research designs, clinical surveys, and future studies to measure the impact of clinical volunteer opportunities on clinical skills development in future physicians.

Exploring the response of net primary productivity variations to urban expansion and climate change: a scenario analysis for Guangdong Province in China.

PubMed

Pei, Fengsong; Li, Xia; Liu, Xiaoping; Lao, Chunhua; Xia, Gengrui

2015-03-01

Urban land development alters landscapes and carbon cycle, especially net primary productivity (NPP). Despite projections that NPP is often reduced by urbanization, little is known about NPP changes under future urban expansion and climate change conditions. In this paper, terrestrial NPP was calculated by using Biome-BGC model. However, this model does not explicitly address urban lands. Hence, we proposed a method of NPP-fraction to detect future urban NPP, assuming that the ratio of real NPP to potential NPP for urban cells remains constant for decades. Furthermore, NPP dynamics were explored by integrating the Biome-BGC and the cellular automata (CA), a widely used method for modeling urban growth. Consequently, urban expansion, climate change and their associated effects on the NPP were analyzed for the period of 2010-2039 using Guangdong Province in China as a case study. In addition, four scenarios were designed to reflect future conditions, namely baseline, climate change, urban expansion and comprehensive scenarios. Our analyses indicate that vegetation NPP in urban cells may increase (17.63 gC m(-2) year(-1)-23.35 gC m(-2) year(-1)) in the climate change scenario. However, future urban expansion may cause some NPP losses of 241.61 gC m(-2) year(-1), decupling the NPP increase of the climate change factor. Taking into account both climate change and urban expansion, vegetation NPP in urban area may decrease, minimally at a rate of 228.54 gC m(-2) year(-1) to 231.74 gC m(-2) year(-1). Nevertheless, they may account for an overall NPP increase of 0.78 TgC year(-1) to 1.28 TgC year(-1) in the whole province. All these show that the provincial NPP increase from climate change may offset the NPP decrease from urban expansion. Despite these results, it is of great significance to regulate reasonable expansion of urban lands to maintain carbon balance. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

College Student Risky Sexual Behaviors and the Attaining of Academic Success a Qualitative Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Willis, Sally

2013-01-01

The focus of the qualitative study was to explore college student sexual health choices from a 4-year undergraduate institution. The study could be used for future research into why the numbers of sexual risk choices including sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) remain among college campuses, and how they affect academic success. Through…

Sustaining visitor use in protected areas: Future opportunities in recreation ecology research based on the USA experience

Treesearch

Christopher A. Monz; David N. Cole; Yu-Fai Leung; Jeffrey L. Marion

2009-01-01

Recreation ecology, the study of environmental consequences of outdoor recreation activities and their effective management, is a relatively new field of scientific study having emerged over the last 50 years. During this time, numerous studies have improved our understanding of how use-related, environmental and managerial factors affect ecological...

Studies of Expansive Learning: Foundations, Findings and Future Challenges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Engestrom, Yrjo; Sannino, Annalisa

2010-01-01

The paper examines studies based on the theory of expansive learning, formulated in 1987. In recent years the theory has been used in a wide variety of studies and interventions. The theory builds on foundational ideas put forward by Vygotsky, Leont'ev, Il'enkov, and Davydov, key figures in the Russian school of cultural-historical activity…

The North Carolina Social Studies Standard Course of Study, Effective 2003-2004 School Year.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

North Carolina State Dept. of Public Instruction, Raleigh.

The primary purpose of the social studies is to help young people, as future culturally diverse, democratic citizens in an interdependent world, develop the ability to make informed and reasoned decisions for the public good as citizens. Underlying this scope and sequence is the principle that neither gender, economic status, nor cultural…

A Five Year Study of Selected Demographics of Middlesex Community College Graduates: 1985-1989.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coggins, John H.; Muzeroll, Terry

This analysis of selected demographic statistics of Middlesex Community College (MxCC) graduates is intended for future academic advising, curriculum planning, and decision making. This demographic profile is comprised of data from studies published between 1985 and 1989. The study focuses on fundamental demographic indicators, such as sex, age,…

University Students' Attitudes towards Deaf People: Educational Implications for the Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, ChongMin; Pott, Scot A.

2018-01-01

Although the attitudes of hearing people towards deaf people have been studied for several years, most of these studies have focused on medical professionals or children in K-12 classrooms. Limited research has examined the attitudes of hearing university students towards deaf people in sign language courses. This study aimed to investigate and…

National facilities study. Volume 3: Mission and requirements model report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1994-01-01

The National Facility Study (NFS) was initiated in 1992 by Daniel S. Goldin, Administrator of NASA as an initiative to develop a comprehensive and integrated long-term plan for future facilities. The resulting, multi-agency NFS consisted of three Task Groups: Aeronautics, Space Operations, and Space Research and Development (R&D) Task Groups. A fourth group, the Engineering and Cost Analysis Task Group, was subsequently added to provide cross-cutting functions, such as assuring consistency in developing an inventory of space facilities. Space facilities decisions require an assessment of current and future needs. Therefore, the two task groups dealing with space developed a consistent model of future space mission programs, operations and R&D. The model is a middle ground baseline constructed for NFS analytical purposes with excursions to cover potential space program strategies. The model includes three major sectors: DOD, civilian government, and commercial space. The model spans the next 30 years because of the long lead times associated with facilities development and usage. This document, Volume 3 of the final NFS report, is organized along the following lines: Executive Summary -- provides a summary view of the 30-year mission forecast and requirements baseline, an overview of excursions from that baseline that were studied, and organization of the report; Introduction -- provides discussions of the methodology used in this analysis; Baseline Model -- provides the mission and requirements model baseline developed for Space Operations and Space R&D analyses; Excursions from the baseline -- reviews the details of variations or 'excursions' that were developed to test the future program projections captured in the baseline; and a Glossary of Acronyms.

'I'm Happy if I Can Help'. Public views on future medicines and gene-based therapy in Iceland.

PubMed

Traulsen, Janine M; Bjornsdóttir, Ingunn; Almarsdóttir, Anna Birna

2008-01-01

To explore lay perceptions about medicine and drug therapy (including gene-based therapy) in the present and in the future. Following almost a year of national debate, the Icelandic parliament passed the Health Sector Database (HSD) Act in 1998. No single issue has been as much debated in Iceland as this database. Despite the explosion of popular and scientific literature in the field of bioethics, there is still a paucity of research concerning 'lay' contributions to the debates. The study was designed as a qualitative study. Focus groups (FGs) were conducted followed by one-on-one interviews with the FG moderator. PARTICIPANTS were asked to comment on a future scenario consisting of predictions concerning the consequence of the Human Genome Project over the next 40 years. Forty-two persons participated in eight FGs in Iceland. The Icelandic moderator was interviewed in English after each group. The lay public was relatively optimistic with regard to the future of drugs and gene-based therapy. Reasons for this optimism can be found in a basic trust and belief in the welfare state and the health system. These results are not consistent with studies carried out in other countries where the public appears to be focused on the negative effects of genetic research and the threats to privacy. Most participants expressed concern about potential problems with regard to social and equity issues, whereas the HSD controversy, a discourse based on the rhetoric of bioethics, was at variance with the issues focused on by the lay public. (c) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel

Modelling uncertainties and possible future trends of precipitation and temperature for 10 sub-basins in Columbia River Basin (CRB)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadalipour, A.; Rana, A.; Qin, Y.; Moradkhani, H.

2014-12-01

Trends and changes in future climatic parameters, such as, precipitation and temperature have been a central part of climate change studies. In the present work, we have analyzed the seasonal and yearly trends and uncertainties of prediction in all the 10 sub-basins of Columbia River Basin (CRB) for future time period of 2010-2099. The work is carried out using 2 different sets of statistically downscaled Global Climate Model (GCMs) projection datasets i.e. Bias correction and statistical downscaling (BCSD) generated at Portland State University and The Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) generated at University of Idaho. The analysis is done for with 10 GCM downscaled products each from CMIP5 daily dataset totaling to 40 different downscaled products for robust analysis. Summer, winter and yearly trend analysis is performed for all the 10 sub-basins using linear regression (significance tested by student t test) and Mann Kendall test (0.05 percent significance level), for precipitation (P), temperature maximum (Tmax) and temperature minimum (Tmin). Thereafter, all the parameters are modelled for uncertainty, across all models, in all the 10 sub-basins and across the CRB for future scenario periods. Results have indicated in varied degree of trends for all the sub-basins, mostly pointing towards a significant increase in all three climatic parameters, for all the seasons and yearly considerations. Uncertainty analysis have reveled very high change in all the parameters across models and sub-basins under consideration. Basin wide uncertainty analysis is performed to corroborate results from smaller, sub-basin scale. Similar trends and uncertainties are reported on the larger scale as well. Interestingly, both trends and uncertainties are higher during winter period than during summer, contributing to large part of the yearly change.

Tracking of Medicine Use and Self-Medication From Infancy to Adolescence: 1993 Pelotas (Brazil) Birth Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Bertoldi, Andréa Dâmaso; Telis Silveira, Marysabel Pinto; Menezes, Ana M.B.; Formoso Assunção, Maria Cecília; Gonçalves, Helen; Hallal, Pedro Curi

2012-01-01

Purpose To track the use of medicine and self-medication from infancy to adolescence. Methods All newborns in the city of Pelotas, Brazil, were monitored and enrolled in the 1993 Pelotas (Brazil) Birth Cohort Study. Subsamples of the cohort were visited at 1, 3, and 6 months and at 1 and 4 years of age. At 11 and 15 years of age, all cohort members were sought. In each of these visits, information on medicine use in the 15 days before the interview was collected. Two outcomes were analyzed: prevalence of medicine use and prevalence of self-medication. Results Prevalence of medicine use in the first year of life ranged from 52.0% to 68.6%. From 4 to 15 years of age, the prevalence decreased, ranging from 30.9% to 37.2%. At age 15, girls presented a 33% higher prevalence of medicine use than boys. The proportion of self-medication ranged from 12.4% to 29.0% and was higher in girls aged 11 and 15 years than boys of the same age. In all follow-up periods, use of medicines was significantly higher among children who used medicines in the earlier period. Prevalence of self-medication was higher among those who were self-medicated in the previous periods. Conclusions Tracking studies are important to public health because they can predict future behavior by analyzing past behavior, thus helping in designing preventive actions. In this study, previous use of medicines predicts future use, thus creating an opportunity to plan actions that promote the rational use of medicines. PMID:23283153

The role of job strain in understanding midlife common mental disorder: a national birth cohort study.

PubMed

Harvey, Samuel B; Sellahewa, Dilan A; Wang, Min-Jung; Milligan-Saville, Josie; Bryan, Bridget T; Henderson, Max; Hatch, Stephani L; Mykletun, Arnstein

2018-06-01

Long-standing concerns exist about reverse causation and residual confounding in the prospective association between job strain and risk of future common mental disorders. We aimed to address these concerns through analysis of data collected in the UK National Child Development Study, a large British cohort study. Data from the National Child Development Study (n=6870) were analysed by use of multivariate logistic regression to investigate the prospective association between job strain variables at age 45 years and risk of future common mental disorders at age 50 years, controlling for lifetime psychiatric history and a range of other possible confounding variables across the lifecourse. Population attributable fractions were calculated to estimate the public health effect of job strain on midlife mental health. In the final model, adjusted for all measured confounders, high job demands (odds ratio 1·70, 95% CI 1·25-2·32; p=0·0008), low job control (1·89, 1·29-2·77; p=0·0010), and high job strain (2·22, 1·59-3·09; p<0·0001) remained significant independent predictors of future onset of common mental disorder. If causality is assumed, our findings suggest that 14% of new cases of common mental disorder could have been prevented through elimination of high job strain (population attributable fraction 0·14, 0·06-0·20). High job strain appears to independently affect the risk of future common mental disorders in midlife. These findings suggest that modifiable work-related risk factors might be an important target in efforts to reduce the prevalence of common mental disorders. iCare Foundation and Mental Health Branch, NSW Health. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Content Analysis of the Research Papers on Foreign Language Education in Turkey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Solak, Ekrem

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the trends of recent research papers in foreign language teaching in Turkish context and to give ideas to researchers and policy makers for future studies. Content Analysis method was used in this study. The focus of the study was 189 research papers published between 2009-2013 years in journals indexed…

Cosmo-geo-anthropo-logical history and political and deep future events in climate and life evolution conveyed by a physical/virtual installation at a scale of 1 mm per 100 years across Denmark during the COP15 climate summit meeting.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holm Jacobsen, Bo

2010-05-01

During the COP15 climate summit meeting a physical and virtual installation of time was performed at a linear scale of 1 mm per 100 years. The "track of time" was carefully anchored geographically so that highlights in time history coincided with landmarks of historical and cultural significance to both tourists and the local Danish population; with Big Bang at the site of early royal settlements from the Viking age (13.7 billion years ~ 137 km from now), Earth origin at Kronborg in Elsinore (4.6 bil. Years ~ 46 km), and fish go on land at The Little Mermaid (390 mil. Years ~ 3900 m). The venue of the COP15 meeting coincided with the position of severe global warming, driven by the steady solar constant increase, to be expected 600 million years into the future. Nested in this grand track of time were the Quaternary ice-ages (2.6 mil. years ~ 26 m), human origin as species (100,000 years ~ 1 m), human history (< 10,000 years ~ 100 mm), personal life and the scope of political consequences of voting action (100 years ~ 1 mm). This installation of time involved several media. Highlights in time history and future were installed as a kml-file so that the convenient user interface of Google Earth could be utilized to provide both overview of time and understanding of details and proportions events antropo-geo-cosmo-history. Each Google Earth marker-balloon gave short explanations and linked to "on location" video-narratives. A classical printed text-folder was prepared as a tour guide for those who wanted to actually walk the Phanerozoic (~5 km). Credit-card-shaped graphs of temperature, CO2 and sealevel development and scenarios were prepared to scale for the period 4000 BP to 1000 years into the future. Along the time line from "Fish on land" to the present 3900 chalk marks were placed on the street surface, one for every metre = time span of Man as a species so far. A "NowGate" marking the present was implemented physically as a door frame, where citizens could meet and discuss time and political and technological milestones in climate/biodiversity remediation and energy system developments. Meanwhile, children and young of mind tested who could take the longest jump into the future. This case study in teaching of scientific time confirmed that 1 mm per 100 years is an adequate linear scale when conveying a joint comprehension of even the longest scientific time scales together with time scales of personal/ethical/political choice. Virtual media of the installation are available for download at www.1mmper100y.dk.

78 FR 21919 - Public Availability of Fiscal Year 2012 Service Contract Inventory

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-12

... Inventory AGENCY: Commodity Futures Trading Commission. ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: The Commodity Futures... Fiscal Year (FY) 2012 Service Contract Inventory. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Questions regarding the Service Contract Inventory should be directed to Sonda R. Owens, Contracting Officer, in the...

Effects of climate change on hydrology and hydraulics of Qu River Basin, East China.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, C.; Zhu, Q.; Zhao, Z.; Pan, S.; Xu, Y. P.

2015-12-01

The impacts of climate change on regional hydrological extreme events have attracted much attention in recent years. This paper aims to provide a general overview of changes on future runoffs and water levels in the Qu River Basin, upper reaches of Qiantang River, East China by combining future climate scenarios, hydrological model and 1D hydraulic model. The outputs of four GCMs BCC, BNU, CanESM and CSIRO under two scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for 2021-2050 are chosen to represent future climate change projections. The LARS-WG statistical downscaling method is used to downscale the coarse GCM outputs and generate 50 years of synthetic precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures to drive the GR4J hydrological model and the 1D hydraulic model for the baseline period 1971-2000 and the future period 2021-2050. Finally the POT (Peaks Over Threshold) method is applied to analyze the change of extreme events in the study area. The results show that design runoffs and water levels all indicate an increasing trend in the future period for Changshangang River, Jiangshangang River and Qu River at most cases, especially for small return periods(≤20), and for Qu River the increase becomes larger, which suggests that the risk of flooding will probably become greater and appropriate adaptation measures need to be taken.

Course experiences, satisfaction and career intent of final year pre-registration Australian pharmacy students

PubMed Central

Shen, Grace; Fois, Romano; Nissen, Lisa; Saini, Bandana

2013-01-01

Background In Australia, the profession of pharmacy has undergone many changes to adapt to the needs of the community. In recent years, concerns have been raised with evidence emerging of workforce saturation in traditional pharmacy practice sectors. It is not known how current final year pharmacy students’ perceive the different pharmacy career paths in this changing environment. Hence investigating students’ current experiences with their pharmacy course, interaction with the profession and developing an understanding of their career intentions would be an important step, as these students would make up a large proportion of future pharmacy workforce. Objective The objective of this study was thus to investigate final year students’ career perspectives and the reasons for choosing pharmacy, satisfaction with this choice of pharmacy as a tertiary course and a possible future career, factors affecting satisfaction and intention of future career paths. Methods A quantitative cross sectional survey of final year students from 3 Australian universities followed by a qualitative semi-structured interview of a convenience sample of final year students from the University of Sydney. Results ‘Interest in health and medicine’ was the most important reason for choosing pharmacy (n=238). The majority of students were ‘somewhat satisfied’ with the choice of pharmacy (35.7%) as a course and possible future career. Positive associations were found between satisfaction and reasons for joining pharmacy such as ‘felt pharmacy is a good profession’ (p=0.003) while negative associations included ‘joined pharmacy as a gateway to medicine or dentistry’ (p=0.001). Quantitate and qualitative results showed the most frequent perception of community pharmacy was ‘changing’ while hospital and pharmaceutical industry was described as ‘competitive’ and ‘research’ respectively. The highest career intention was community followed by hospital pharmacy. Conclusion Complex factors including university experiences are involved in shaping students’ satisfaction and perception of career. This may relate to challenges in the community pharmacy sector, job opportunities in hospital and limited understanding of the pharmaceutical industry. The results offer insight for the profession in terms of entry into various roles and also to pharmacy educators for their roles in shaping curricula and placement experiences that attract future graduates to defined career pathways in pharmacy. PMID:25035715

What factors influence the choice of urban or rural location for future practice of Nepalese medical students? A cross-sectional descriptive study.

PubMed

Sapkota, Bhim Prasad; Amatya, Archana

2015-11-10

Nepal is experiencing a public health issue similar to the rest of the world, i.e., the geographical maldistribution of physicians. Although there is some documentation about the reasons physicians elect to leave Nepal to work abroad, very little is known about the salient factors that influence the choice of an urban versus rural practice setting for those physicians who do not migrate. In recent years, around 1000 medical students became doctors within Nepal, but their distribution in rural locations is not adequate. The purpose of this study was to explore what factors influence the choice of urban or rural location for the future clinical practice of Nepalese medical students in the final year of their program A cross-sectional descriptive study design was used for this study involving Nepalese medical students in their final year of study and currently doing an internship in a medical college. The sample consisted of 393 medical students from four medical colleges in Nepal that were selected randomly. An anonymous self-administered questionnaire was used for data collection. To determine the association with rural location choice for their future practice setting, a comparison was done that involved demographic, socio-economic, and educational factors. Data were entered in EpiData and analyzed by using SPSS version 16. Among the 393 respondents, two thirds were male (66.9%) and more than half were below 25 years of age. Almost all (93%) respondents were single and about two thirds (63.4%) were of Brahmin and Chhetri ethnic origin. About two thirds (64.1%) of the respondents were born in a rural setting, and 58.8% and 53.3% had a place of rearing and permanent address in a rural location, respectively. The predictors of future rural location choice for their clinical practice (based on the bivariate analysis) included: (a) Rural (versus urban) place of birth, place of rearing, and permanent address (b) Source of family income (service, business, and agriculture) (c) Occupation of father (service, business and agriculture) (d) Wealth ranking (higher, middle, and lower wealth rank) (e) Educational factors: location, type of secondary education, and type of higher secondary education. For medical students who were soon to complete their studies, demographic and educational factors were found to be significant predictors for a rural location choice, as opposed to socio-economic factors. Our findings indicate that to ensure the rural retention of physicians, the government of Nepal should attract potential medical students from those who were reared and educated in a rural setting.

Is the future already here? The impact of climate change on the distribution of the eastern coral snake (Micrurus fulvius).

PubMed

Archis, Jennifer N; Akcali, Christopher; Stuart, Bryan L; Kikuchi, David; Chunco, Amanda J

2018-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is a significant global driver of species distribution change. Although many species have undergone range expansion at their poleward limits, data on several taxonomic groups are still lacking. A common method for studying range shifts is using species distribution models to evaluate current, and predict future, distributions. Notably, many sources of 'current' climate data used in species distribution modeling use the years 1950-2000 to calculate climatic averages. However, this does not account for recent (post 2000) climate change. This study examines the influence of climate change on the eastern coral snake ( Micrurus fulvius ). Specifically, we: (1) identified the current range and suitable environment of M. fulvius in the Southeastern United States, (2) investigated the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of M. fulvius , and (3) evaluated the utility of future models in predicting recent (2001-2015) records. We used the species distribution modeling program Maxent and compared both current (1950-2000) and future (2050) climate conditions. Future climate models showed a shift in the distribution of suitable habitat across a significant portion of the range; however, results also suggest that much of the Southeastern United States will be outside the range of current conditions, suggesting that there may be no-analog environments in the future. Most strikingly, future models were more effective than the current models at predicting recent records, suggesting that range shifts may already be occurring. These results have implications for both M. fulvius and its Batesian mimics. More broadly, we recommend future Maxent studies consider using future climate data along with current data to better estimate the current distribution.

Future time orientation predicts academic engagement among first-year university students.

PubMed

Horstmanshof, Louise; Zimitat, Craig

2007-09-01

Enhancing student engagement is considered an important strategy for improving retention. Students' Time Perspective is an under-researched factor that may significantly influence student engagement. This study examines interrelationships between elements of student engagement and relationship with Time Perspective. We propose that there are significant relationships between psychological and behavioural elements of student engagement. We also posit that time orientation is an important factor in facilitating psychological and behavioural elements of student engagement. Participants (N=347) were first-year undergraduate students who had completed one semester of study and re-enrolled for a further semester of study at an Australian university. Participants were surveyed using instruments designed to measure Academic Application, Academic Orientation (McInnis, James, & Hartley, 2000), Time Perspective (Zimbardo & Boyd, 1999), the shortened version of the Study Process Questionnaire (Fox, McManus, & Winder, 2001) and hours spent preparing for class. There were interrelationships between the elements of student engagement (e.g. Academic Application) with productive educational behaviours (e.g. deep approach to learning). Students' perceptions of time appeared as a key factor mediating levels of Academic Application and Academic Orientation. Orientation to the Future emerged as a significant predictor of these elements of engagement. Future orientation emerged as an important factor mediating students' academic engagement in these students who completed one semester of study. Interventions focusing on the development of time perspective may be helpful in encouraging and supporting academic engagement and, ultimately, persistence in higher education.

Understanding adherence to treatment and physical activity in children with hemophilia: The role of psychosocial factors.

PubMed

Bérubé, Sarah; Cloutier-Bergeron, Audrey; Amesse, Claudine; Sultan, Serge

2017-02-01

The objective of this study was to identify psychosocial factors to explain intentions of children and adolescents with hemophilia to adhere to recommendations for self-care. Twenty-four patients with hemophilia A and B, aged 6-18 years old, and their parents, completed a survey. Measures assessed factors from the theory of planned behavior, physical activity, and medical treatment adherence. The results indicate that past behaviors, attitudes, and subjective norms explained a large proportion of the intention to engage in future nonrecommended physical activity. This study supports the need to investigate motivational factors underlying behaviors in larger scale studies and identifies targets for future interventions.

Protocol for systematic review of evidence on the determinants and influence of early glycaemic control in childhood-onset type 1 diabetes.

PubMed

Mazarello Paes, Veena; Charalampopoulos, Dimitrios; Khanolkar, Amal R; Taylor-Robinson, David; Viner, Russell; Edge, Julie; Stephenson, Terence; Amin, Rakesh

2015-11-12

Landmark studies in adult-onset type 1 diabetes (T1D) populations indicate that improved glycaemic control through use of intensive insulin therapy is strongly associated with reduced risk for the development of diabetes-related complications and mortality in later years. However, it is unclear whether these associations can be extrapolated to childhood-onset T1D, given the influence of other important biological and psychosocial determinants of glycaemic control, particularly during adolescence. The aims of the review are (1) to investigate the impact of early glycaemic control (within the first 2 years after diagnosis) on subsequent glycaemic trends and risk of complications during the life course of childhood-onset T1D and (2) to identify the predictors of early glycaemic control in children and young people (0-25 years). The methods used in this study are systematic identification, review and mapping of quantitative (intervention and observational) and qualitative literature; assessing the effect and predictors of early glycaemic control in T1D (diagnosed ≤18 years) on risk or prevalence of later complications. An iterated search strategy, with no language or period restrictions, was applied to identify studies from six electronic databases. This will be supplemented by hand-searching (reference lists and contacting authors of studies meeting the inclusion criteria). Studies assessing glycaemic control within the first 2 years of diagnosis in children (at baseline) will be quality-assessed against predefined criteria and mapped descriptively to future health outcomes. Extracted data will be analysed and synthesised using narrative and forest plots or harvest plots for quantitative evidence and thematic analyses for qualitative studies. To get a deeper understanding of the predictors of early glycaemic control in reducing complications in childhood and adult life, we will integrate qualitative and quantitative evidence using mixed methods or parallel synthesis approach. These linked reviews will be the first to systematically investigate the effects of early glycaemic control and integrate both the quantitative and qualitative evidence on predictors of early glycaemic control in childhood-onset T1D in reducing future diabetes complications. This will help identify and map current research and inform development of effective future interventions. PROSPERO CRD42015024546.

Integrating future scenario‐based crop expansion and crop conditions to map switchgrass biofuel potential in eastern Nebraska, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gu, Yingxin; Wylie, Bruce K.

2018-01-01

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) has been evaluated as one potential source for cellulosic biofuel feedstocks. Planting switchgrass in marginal croplands and waterway buffers can reduce soil erosion, improve water quality, and improve regional ecosystem services (i.e. it serves as a potential carbon sink). In previous studies, we mapped high risk marginal croplands and highly erodible cropland buffers that are potentially suitable for switchgrass development, which would improve ecosystem services and minimally impact food production. In this study, we advance our previous study results and integrate future crop expansion information to develop a switchgrass biofuel potential ensemble map for current and future croplands in eastern Nebraska. The switchgrass biomass productivity and carbon benefits (i.e. NEP: net ecosystem production) for the identified biofuel potential ensemble areas were quantified. The future scenario‐based (‘A1B’) land use and land cover map for 2050, the US Geological Survey crop type and Compound Topographic Index (CTI) maps, and long‐term (1981–2010) averaged annual precipitation data were used to identify future crop expansion regions that are suitable for switchgrass development. Results show that 2528 km2 of future crop expansion regions (~3.6% of the study area) are potentially suitable for switchgrass development. The total estimated biofuel potential ensemble area (including cropland buffers, marginal croplands, and future crop expansion regions) is 4232 km2 (~6% of the study area), potentially producing 3.52 million metric tons of switchgrass biomass per year. Converting biofuel ensemble regions to switchgrass leads to potential carbon sinks (the total NEP for biofuel potential areas is 0.45 million metric tons C) and is environmentally sustainable. Results from this study improve our understanding of environmental conditions and ecosystem services of current and future cropland systems in eastern Nebraska and provide useful information to land managers to make land use decisions regarding switchgrass development.

Future Research in Health Information Technology: A Review.

PubMed

Hemmat, Morteza; Ayatollahi, Haleh; Maleki, Mohammad Reza; Saghafi, Fatemeh

2017-01-01

Currently, information technology is considered an important tool to improve healthcare services. To adopt the right technologies, policy makers should have adequate information about present and future advances. This study aimed to review and compare studies with a focus on the future of health information technology. This review study was completed in 2015. The databases used were Scopus, Web of Science, ProQuest, Ovid Medline, and PubMed. Keyword searches were used to identify papers and materials published between 2000 and 2015. Initially, 407 papers were obtained, and they were reduced to 11 papers at the final stage. The selected papers were described and compared in terms of the country of origin, objective, methodology, and time horizon. The papers were divided into two groups: those forecasting the future of health information technology (seven papers) and those providing health information technology foresight (four papers). The results showed that papers related to forecasting the future of health information technology were mostly a literature review, and the time horizon was up to 10 years in most of these studies. In the health information technology foresight group, most of the studies used a combination of techniques, such as scenario building and Delphi methods, and had long-term objectives. To make the most of an investment and to improve planning and successful implementation of health information technology, a strategic plan for the future needs to be set. To achieve this aim, methods such as forecasting the future of health information technology and offering health information technology foresight can be applied. The forecasting method is used when the objectives are not very large, and the foresight approach is recommended when large-scale objectives are set to be achieved. In the field of health information technology, the results of foresight studies can help to establish realistic long-term expectations of the future of health information technology.

Future Research in Health Information Technology: A Review

PubMed Central

Hemmat, Morteza; Ayatollahi, Haleh; Maleki, Mohammad Reza; Saghafi, Fatemeh

2017-01-01

Introduction Currently, information technology is considered an important tool to improve healthcare services. To adopt the right technologies, policy makers should have adequate information about present and future advances. This study aimed to review and compare studies with a focus on the future of health information technology. Method This review study was completed in 2015. The databases used were Scopus, Web of Science, ProQuest, Ovid Medline, and PubMed. Keyword searches were used to identify papers and materials published between 2000 and 2015. Initially, 407 papers were obtained, and they were reduced to 11 papers at the final stage. The selected papers were described and compared in terms of the country of origin, objective, methodology, and time horizon. Results The papers were divided into two groups: those forecasting the future of health information technology (seven papers) and those providing health information technology foresight (four papers). The results showed that papers related to forecasting the future of health information technology were mostly a literature review, and the time horizon was up to 10 years in most of these studies. In the health information technology foresight group, most of the studies used a combination of techniques, such as scenario building and Delphi methods, and had long-term objectives. Conclusion To make the most of an investment and to improve planning and successful implementation of health information technology, a strategic plan for the future needs to be set. To achieve this aim, methods such as forecasting the future of health information technology and offering health information technology foresight can be applied. The forecasting method is used when the objectives are not very large, and the foresight approach is recommended when large-scale objectives are set to be achieved. In the field of health information technology, the results of foresight studies can help to establish realistic long-term expectations of the future of health information technology. PMID:28566991

Serum Amino Acid Profiles in Childhood Predict Triglyceride Level in Adulthood: A 7-Year Longitudinal Study in Girls.

PubMed

Wiklund, Petri; Zhang, Xiaobo; Tan, Xiao; Keinänen-Kiukaanniemi, Sirkka; Alen, Markku; Cheng, Sulin

2016-05-01

Branched-chain and aromatic amino acids are associated with high risk of developing dyslipidemia and type II diabetes in adults. This study aimed to examine whether serum amino acid profiles associate with triglyceride concentrations during pubertal growth and predict hypertriglyceridemia in early adulthood. This was a 7.5-year longitudinal study. The study was conducted at the Health Science Laboratory, University of Jyväskylä. A total of 396 nondiabetic Finnish girls aged 11.2 ± 0.8 years at the baseline participated in the study. Body composition was assessed by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry; serum concentrations of glucose, insulin, and triglyceride by enzymatic photometric methods; and amino acids by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Serum leucine and isoleucine correlated significantly with future triglyceride, independent of baseline triglyceride level (P < .05 for all). In early adulthood (at the age of 18 years), these amino acids were significantly associated with hypertriglyceridemia, whereas fat mass and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance were not. Leucine was the strongest determinant discriminating subjects with hypertriglyceridemia from those with normal triglyceride level (area under the curve, 0.822; 95% confidence interval, 0.740-0.903; P = .000001). Serum leucine and isoleucine were associated with future serum triglyceride levels in girls during pubertal growth and predicted hypertriglyceridemia in early adulthood. Therefore, these amino acid indices may serve as biomarkers to identify individuals at high risk for developing hypertriglyceridemia and cardiovascular disease later in life. Further studies are needed to elucidate the role these amino acids play in the lipid metabolism.

Vision for Future Buildings

ScienceCinema

None

2018-01-16

In the last 10 years our lives have changed so quickly, and drastically, that it's hard to imagine what the distant future might bring. Because buildings are large, long-term investments, the building sector has been slower to change. It can take more than 100 years for our cities to be renovated or rebuilt using updated methods and technologies. But to get there, we must start to conceptualize what the functions and capabilities of these future buildings could be, today.

Vision for Future Buildings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

2016-05-19

In the last 10 years our lives have changed so quickly, and drastically, that it's hard to imagine what the distant future might bring. Because buildings are large, long-term investments, the building sector has been slower to change. It can take more than 100 years for our cities to be renovated or rebuilt using updated methods and technologies. But to get there, we must start to conceptualize what the functions and capabilities of these future buildings could be, today.

NASA Oceanic Processes Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1988-01-01

An overview of the recent accomplishments, present activities, and future plans is provided. Sections following the introduction provides summaries of current flight projects and definition studies, brief descriptions of individual research activities, and a bibliography of referred Journal Articles appearing within the last three years.

EPA and Port Everglades Partnership: Emission Inventories and Reduction Strategies

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA’s Office of Transportation and Air Quality and Port Everglades announced a voluntary partnership to study mobile source emissions. Through this partnership, EPA and PEV agreed to work together to develop baseline and future year emission inventories.

Educating Engineers: Designing for the Future of the Field. Book Highlights

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sheppard, Sheri D.; Macatangay, Kelly; Colby, Anne; Sullivan, William M.

2008-01-01

This multi-year study of undergraduate engineering education in the United States initiated questions about the alignment of engineering programs with the demands of current professional engineering practice. While describing engineering education from within the classroom and the lab, the report on the study offers new possibilities for teaching…

The Inclusion House: Where Pastors Learn to Minister to Individuals with Disabilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Finn, Jane; Utting, Allison

2017-01-01

The Inclusion House is a unique dorm in Holland, Michigan, where nondisabled students, studying to be leaders in the faith community as future pastors, live side-by-side same-aged individuals with intellectual disabilities. After one year, a qualitative study using semi-structured interviews was conducted with the nondisabled roommates. Findings…

The oak wilt situation

Treesearch

William H. Gillespie

1971-01-01

Although oak wilt has been studied for more than 30 years, there are many facets of the disease that are little understood. Continuing Federal-State cooperative studies are geared to predicting the overall effects of the disease on future forest management programs, but much additional research is needed before present control programs can be expanded or discarded in a...

The Delphi Predictions of Pathology Chairmen: A Six-Year Retrospective View.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hill, Rolla B.; Goodale, Fairfield

1981-01-01

A retrospective review is reported of progress in academic pathology since 1974, when the Association of Pathology Chairmen undertook a Delphi study of pathology chairmen's expectations and desires for the future. The Delphi study was useful in alerting academic pathologists to opportunities and in coalescing activities toward achievement of…

Corporate Blended Learning in Portugal: Current Status and Future Directions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marcal, Julia; Caetano, Antonio

2010-01-01

The aim of this study is to characterize the current status of blended learning in Portugal, given that b-learning has grown exponentially in the Portuguese market over recent years. 38 organizations (representing 68% of all institutions certified to provide distance training by the Government Labour Office--DGERT-) participated in this study. The…

Deja Vu: The Status of the Profession, 1987.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holladay, Sylvia A.

1988-01-01

In a response to the Minnesota Conference on the Future of Doctoral Study in English, asserts that the English faculty in two-year colleges should not be omitted from discussions of graduate study in English. Offers several recommendations for graduate education in English, particularly in relation to the implications for instructors in two-year…

An Australian Study of Possible Selves Perceived by Undergraduate Engineering Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bennett, Dawn; Male, Sally A.

2017-01-01

In this study, we worked with second-year engineering students at an Australian university to examine previously identified threshold concepts within the theoretical framework of Possible Selves. Using workshops as the context for intensive work with students, students were encouraged to consider their future lives and work, including their…

Who Are the Future Teachers in Turkey? Characteristics of Entering Student Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aksu, Meral; Demir, Cennet Engin; Daloglu, Aysegul; Yildirim, Soner; Kiraz, Ercan

2010-01-01

This exploratory study examines the background characteristics, socio-cultural values and pedagogical beliefs that entering student teachers bring with them into the faculties of education and explores their possible implications for teacher education in the Turkish context. The study comprised 18,226 first-year student teachers from 51 faculties…

Literacy Coaching: The Role of Reflective Thought in Teacher Decision Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

May, Patricia Jane

2010-01-01

Qualitative studies of classroom teachers involved in literacy coaching are crucial to provide direction for future literacy coaching practice and research. Using a grounded theory design, this study examined the experience of four elementary level classroom teachers and one coach as they engaged in a year-long literacy coaching program. Teachers…

Life-Patterns, Choices, Careers: 1991-1998. Research Report 17.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dwyer, Peter; Harwood, Aramiha; Tyler, Debra

A follow-up study of participants in the "Life Patterns of the Post-1970 Generation" project (1,334 of 29,155 initial participants) focused on backgrounds, living situations, work and study involvement, and life experience and future expectations. Data indicated that 49 percent had attained a career job within 3 years of graduating. The…

Adiposity rebound and the development of metabolic syndrome.

PubMed

Koyama, Satomi; Ichikawa, Go; Kojima, Megumi; Shimura, Naoto; Sairenchi, Toshimi; Arisaka, Osamu

2014-01-01

The age of adiposity rebound (AR) is defined as the time at which BMI starts to rise after infancy and is thought to be a marker of later obesity. To determine whether this age is related to future occurrence of metabolic syndrome, we investigated the relationship of the timing of AR with metabolic consequences at 12 years of age. A total of 271 children (147 boys and 124 girls) born in 1995 and 1996 were enrolled in the study. Serial measurements of BMI were conducted at the ages of 4 and 8 months and 1, 1.5, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12 years, based on which age of AR was calculated. Plasma lipids and blood pressure were measured at 12 years of age. An earlier AR (<4 years of age) was associated with a higher BMI (≥ 20) and a lipoprotein phenotype representative of insulin resistance. This phenotype consists of elevated triglycerides, apolipoprotein B, and atherogenic index and decreased high-density lipoprotein cholesterol in boys and elevated apolipoprotein B in girls at 12 years of age. The earlier AR was also related to elevated blood pressure in boys. This longitudinal population-based study indicates that children who exhibit AR at a younger age are predisposed to future development of metabolic syndrome. Therefore, monitoring of AR may be an effective method for the early identification of children at risk for metabolic syndrome.

Positive and negative psychosocial impact of being diagnosed with cancer as an adolescent or young adult.

PubMed

Bellizzi, Keith M; Smith, Ashley; Schmidt, Steven; Keegan, Theresa H M; Zebrack, Brad; Lynch, Charles F; Deapen, Dennis; Shnorhavorian, Margarett; Tompkins, Bradley J; Simon, Michael

2012-10-15

The objective of this study was to explore the psychosocial impact of cancer on newly diagnosed adolescent and young adult (AYA) cancer patients. This was a population-based, multicenter study of 523 newly diagnosed AYA survivors (ages 15-39 years) of germ cell cancer (n = 204), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (n = 131), Hodgkin lymphoma (n = 142), acute lymphocytic leukemia (n = 21), or sarcoma (n = 25) from 7 National Cancer Institute Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registries. Age at diagnosis was categorized into 3 groups (ages 15-20 years, 21-29 years, and 30-39 years). Respondents (43% response rate), on average (±standard deviation), were aged 29 = 6.7 years, and most patients (80.1%) were not receiving treatment at the time the completed the survey. With modest differences between the age groups, the most prevalent areas of life impacted in a negative way were financial, body image, control over life, work plans, relationship with spouse/significant other, and plans for having children. Endorsement of positive life impact items also was evident across the 3 age groups, particularly with regard to relationships, future plans/goals, and health competence. The current results indicated that there will be future need for interventions targeting financial assistance, body image issues, relationships, and helping AYAs to attain their education objectives. Copyright © 2012 American Cancer Society.

Can Multiple Mini-Interviews Predict Academic Performance of Dental Students? A Two-Year Follow-Up.

PubMed

Alaki, Sumer M; Yamany, Ibrahim A; Shinawi, Lana A; Hassan, Mona H A; Tekian, Ara

2016-11-01

Prior research has shown that students' previous grade point average (GPA) is the best predictor for future academic success. However, it can only partly predict the variability in dental school performance. The aim of this study was to assess the predictive value of multiple mini-interviews (MMI) as an admission criterion by comparing them with the academic performance of dental students over a two-year period. All incoming undergraduate dental students at the King Abdulaziz University Faculty of Dentistry (KAUFD) during academic year 2013-14 were invited to participate in MMI. Students rotated through six objective structured clinical exam (OSCE)-like stations for 30 minutes total and were interviewed by two trained faculty interviewers at each station. The stations were focused on noncognitive skills thought to be essential to academic performance at KAUFD. The academic performance of these students was then followed for two years and linked to their MMI scores. A total of 146 students (71 males and 75 females) participated in an interview (response rate=92.9%). Most students scored in the acceptable range at each MMI station. Students' total MMI score, ambitions, and motives were significant predictors of GPA during the two years of follow-up (p<0.038 and p<0.001, respectively). In this study, MMI was found to be able to predict future academic performance of undergraduate dental students.

Perceived Life Expectancy Is Associated with Colorectal Cancer Screening in England.

PubMed

Kobayashi, Lindsay C; von Wagner, Christian; Wardle, Jane

2017-06-01

Cancer screening is a behavior that represents investment in future health. Such investment may depend on how much 'future' a person expects. The purpose of this study was to investigate the prospective association between perceived personal life expectancy and participation in fecal occult blood test screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) in a national program. Data were from interviews with 3975 men and women in the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) within the eligible age range for the national screening program (60 to 74 years). Perceived life expectancy was indexed as the individual's estimate of their chance of living another 10-15 years (exact time varied by age), assessed in 2008/2009. Participation in CRC screening from 2010 to 2012/2013 was assessed in 2012/2013. Logistic regression was used to estimate the association between perceived life expectancy and screening participation, adjusted for numeracy and known mortality risk factors. Overall, 71% of respondents (2817/3975) reported completing at least one fecal occult blood test (FOBt) during the follow-up. Screening uptake was 76% (1272/1683) among those who estimated their 10-15-year life expectancy as 75-100%, compared with 52% (126/243) among those who estimated theirs as 0-25% (adjusted OR 1.74, 95% CI 1.29-2.34). A longer perceived life expectancy is associated with greater likelihood of participating in CRC screening in England. However, half of people with a low perceived life expectancy still participated in screening. Given that CRC screening is recommended for adults with a remaining life expectancy of ≥10 years, future research should investigate how to communicate the aims of screening more effectively.

Past and future trends in cancer and biomedical research: a comparison between Egypt and the world using PubMed-indexed publications.

PubMed

Zeeneldin, Ahmed Abdelmabood; Taha, Fatma Mohamed; Moneer, Manar

2012-07-10

PubMed is a free web literature search service that contains almost 21 millions of abstracts and publications with almost 5 million user queries daily. The purposes of the study were to compare trends in PubMed-indexed cancer and biomedical publications from Egypt to that of the world and to predict future publication volumes. The PubMed was searched for the biomedical publications between 1991 and 2010 (publications dates). Affiliation was then limited to Egypt. Further limitation was applied to cancer, human and animal publications. Poisson regression model was used for prediction of future number of publications between 2011 and 2020. Cancer publications contributed 23% to biomedical publications both for Egypt and the world. Egyptian biomedical and cancer publications contributed about 0.13% to their world counterparts. This contribution was more than doubled over the study period. Egyptian and world's publications increased from year to year with rapid rise starting the year 2003. Egyptian as well as world's human cancer publications showed the highest increases. Egyptian publications had some peculiarities; they showed some drop at the years 1994 and 2002 and apart from the decline in the animal: human ratio with time, all Egyptian publications in the period 1991-2000 were significantly more than those in 2001-2010 (P < 0.05 for all). By 2020, Egyptian biomedical and cancer publications will increase by 158.7% and 280% relative to 2010 to constitute 0.34% and 0.17% of total PubMed publications, respectively. The Egyptian contribution to world's biomedical and cancer publications needs significant improvements through research strategic planning, setting national research priorities, adequate funding and researchers' training.

Past and future trends in cancer and biomedical research: a comparison between Egypt and the World using PubMed-indexed publications

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background PubMed is a free web literature search service that contains almost 21 millions of abstracts and publications with almost 5 million user queries daily. The purposes of the study were to compare trends in PubMed-indexed cancer and biomedical publications from Egypt to that of the world and to predict future publication volumes. Methods The PubMed was searched for the biomedical publications between 1991 and 2010 (publications dates). Affiliation was then limited to Egypt. Further limitation was applied to cancer, human and animal publications. Poisson regression model was used for prediction of future number of publications between 2011 and 2020. Results Cancer publications contributed 23% to biomedical publications both for Egypt and the world. Egyptian biomedical and cancer publications contributed about 0.13% to their world counterparts. This contribution was more than doubled over the study period. Egyptian and world’s publications increased from year to year with rapid rise starting the year 2003. Egyptian as well as world’s human cancer publications showed the highest increases. Egyptian publications had some peculiarities; they showed some drop at the years 1994 and 2002 and apart from the decline in the animal: human ratio with time, all Egyptian publications in the period 1991-2000 were significantly more than those in 2001-2010 (P < 0.05 for all). By 2020, Egyptian biomedical and cancer publications will increase by 158.7% and 280% relative to 2010 to constitute 0.34% and 0.17% of total PubMed publications, respectively. Conclusions The Egyptian contribution to world’s biomedical and cancer publications needs significant improvements through research strategic planning, setting national research priorities, adequate funding and researchers’ training. PMID:22780908

Heterogeneity in recent-onset type 1 diabetes - a clinical trial perspective.

PubMed

Bollyky, Jennifer B; Xu, Ping; Butte, Atul J; Wilson, Darrell M; Beam, Craig A; Greenbaum, Carla J

2015-09-01

Type 1 diabetes (T1D) TrialNet is a National Institutes of Health-sponsored clinical trial network aimed at altering the disease course of T1D. The purpose of this study is to evaluate age-dependent heterogeneity in clinical, metabolic and immunologic characteristics of individuals with recent-onset T1D, to identify cohorts of interest and to aid in planning of future studies. Eight hundred eighty-three individuals with recent-onset T1D involved in five TrialNet studies were categorized by age as follows: ≥18 years, 12-17 years, 8-12 years and <8 years. Data were compared with healthy age-matched subjects in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Only 2.0% of the individuals overall were excluded from trial participation because of insufficient C-peptide values (<0.2 pmol/mL). A disproportionate number of these subjects were <8 years old. Leukopenia was present in 21.2% of individuals and lymphopenia in 11.6%; these frequencies were markedly higher than age-matched healthy National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey population. Of the cohort, 24.5% were overweight or obese. Neither high-risk human leukocyte antigen type DR3 nor DR4 was present in 31% of adults and 21% of children. The ability of recent-onset T1D patients to meet key entry criteria for TrialNet studies, including C-peptide >0.2 pmol/mL, varies by age. Lower C-peptide level requirements for younger participants and other aspects of heterogeneity of recent-onset T1D patients, such as white blood cell count abnormalities and body mass index should be considered in the design of future clinical studies. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Young adult female cancer survivors' unmet information needs and reproductive concerns contribute to decisional conflict regarding posttreatment fertility preservation.

PubMed

Benedict, Catherine; Thom, Bridgette; N Friedman, Danielle; Diotallevi, Debbie; M Pottenger, Elaine; J Raghunathan, Nirupa; Kelvin, Joanne F

2016-07-01

Many young adult female cancer survivors (YAFCS) are at risk of experiencing premature menopause. The current study characterized the posttreatment fertility information needs, reproductive concerns, and decisional conflict regarding future options for posttreatment fertility preservation (FP) among YAFCS. Participants completed a Web-based, anonymous survey between February and March 2015. The survey included investigator-designed questions of perceived information needs, the Reproductive Concerns After Cancer Scale, and the Decisional Conflict Scale. Analyses included Pearson correlation coefficients, independent-sample Student t tests, and multiple regression. There was a total of 346 participants with an average age of 29.9 years (SD = 4.1 years) who were 4.9 years from treatment (SD = 5.4 years [range, 0-27 years]). The main analyses focused on a subgroup of YAFCS with uncertain fertility status who had not previously undergone/attempted FP and either wanted future children or were unsure (179 women). Across fertility information topics, 43% to 62% of participants reported unmet information needs. The greatest reproductive concerns were related to fertility potential and the health of future offspring. The regression model controlled for a priori covariates including current age, age at treatment completion, income, relationship status, nulliparity, and prior fertility evaluation. Greater unmet information needs were found to be related to greater decisional conflict (β = .43; p<.001); greater reproductive concerns were associated at the trend level (β = .14, p = .08; F[8,118] = 6.42, p<.001). YAFCS with limited awareness or knowledge of their risk of experiencing premature menopause and FP options reported higher levels of decisional conflict regarding future FP. Posttreatment survivorship care should include comprehensive reproductive health counseling, including posttreatment FP options and family-building alternatives. Cancer 2016;122:2101-9. © 2016 American Cancer Society. © 2016 American Cancer Society.

Future Orientation among Students Exposed to School Bullying and Cyberbullying Victimization

PubMed Central

Låftman, Sara B.; Alm, Susanne; Sandahl, Julia; Modin, Bitte

2018-01-01

Future orientation can be defined as an individual’s thoughts, beliefs, plans, and hopes for the future. Earlier research has shown adolescents’ future orientation to predict outcomes later in life, which makes it relevant to analyze differences in future orientation among youth. The aim of the present study was to analyze if bullying victimization was associated with an increased likelihood of reporting a pessimistic future orientation among school youth. To be able to distinguish between victims and bully-victims (i.e., students who are both bullies and victims), we also took perpetration into account. The data were derived from the Stockholm School Survey performed in 2016 among ninth grade students (ages 15–16 years) (n = 5144). Future orientation and involvement in school bullying and in cyberbullying were based on self-reports. The statistical method used was binary logistic regression. The results demonstrated that victims and bully-victims of school bullying and of cyberbullying were more likely to report a pessimistic future orientation compared with students not involved in bullying. These associations were shown also when involvement in school bullying and cyberbullying were mutually adjusted. The findings underline the importance of anti-bullying measures that target both school bullying and cyberbullying. PMID:29584631

Future Orientation among Students Exposed to School Bullying and Cyberbullying Victimization.

PubMed

Låftman, Sara B; Alm, Susanne; Sandahl, Julia; Modin, Bitte

2018-03-27

Future orientation can be defined as an individual's thoughts, beliefs, plans, and hopes for the future. Earlier research has shown adolescents' future orientation to predict outcomes later in life, which makes it relevant to analyze differences in future orientation among youth. The aim of the present study was to analyze if bullying victimization was associated with an increased likelihood of reporting a pessimistic future orientation among school youth. To be able to distinguish between victims and bully-victims (i.e., students who are both bullies and victims), we also took perpetration into account. The data were derived from the Stockholm School Survey performed in 2016 among ninth grade students (ages 15-16 years) ( n = 5144). Future orientation and involvement in school bullying and in cyberbullying were based on self-reports. The statistical method used was binary logistic regression. The results demonstrated that victims and bully-victims of school bullying and of cyberbullying were more likely to report a pessimistic future orientation compared with students not involved in bullying. These associations were shown also when involvement in school bullying and cyberbullying were mutually adjusted. The findings underline the importance of anti-bullying measures that target both school bullying and cyberbullying.