Study of future world markets for agricultural aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gobetz, F. W.; Assarabowski, R. J.

1979-01-01

The future world market for US-manufactured agricultural aircraft was studied and the technology needs for foreign markets were identified. Special emphasis was placed on the developing country market, but the developed countries and the communist group were also included in the forecasts. Aircraft needs were projected to the year 2000 by a method which accounted for field size, crop production, treated area, productivity, and attrition of the fleet. A special scenario involving a significant shift toward aerial fertilization was also considered. An operations analysis was conducted to compare the relative application costs of various existing and hypothetical future aircraft. A case study was made of Colombia as an example of a developing country in which aviation is emerging as an important industry.

Future time orientation predicts academic engagement among first-year university students.

PubMed

Horstmanshof, Louise; Zimitat, Craig

2007-09-01

Enhancing student engagement is considered an important strategy for improving retention. Students' Time Perspective is an under-researched factor that may significantly influence student engagement. This study examines interrelationships between elements of student engagement and relationship with Time Perspective. We propose that there are significant relationships between psychological and behavioural elements of student engagement. We also posit that time orientation is an important factor in facilitating psychological and behavioural elements of student engagement. Participants (N=347) were first-year undergraduate students who had completed one semester of study and re-enrolled for a further semester of study at an Australian university. Participants were surveyed using instruments designed to measure Academic Application, Academic Orientation (McInnis, James, & Hartley, 2000), Time Perspective (Zimbardo & Boyd, 1999), the shortened version of the Study Process Questionnaire (Fox, McManus, & Winder, 2001) and hours spent preparing for class. There were interrelationships between the elements of student engagement (e.g. Academic Application) with productive educational behaviours (e.g. deep approach to learning). Students' perceptions of time appeared as a key factor mediating levels of Academic Application and Academic Orientation. Orientation to the Future emerged as a significant predictor of these elements of engagement. Future orientation emerged as an important factor mediating students' academic engagement in these students who completed one semester of study. Interventions focusing on the development of time perspective may be helpful in encouraging and supporting academic engagement and, ultimately, persistence in higher education.

Telephone Encounters Predict Future High Financial Expenditures in Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patients: A 3-Year Prospective Observational Study.

PubMed

Click, Benjamin; Anderson, Alyce M; Ramos Rivers, Claudia; Koutroubakis, Ioannis E; Hashash, Jana G; Dunn, Michael A; Schwartz, Marc; Swoger, Jason; Barrie, Arthur; Szigethy, Eva; Regueiro, Miguel; Schoen, Robert E; Binion, David G

2018-04-01

Telephone activity is essential in management of complex chronic diseases including inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Telephone encounters logged in the electronic medical record have recently been proposed as a surrogate marker of disease activity and impending health care utilization; however, the association between telephone calls and financial expenditures has not been evaluated. We performed a 3-year prospective observational study of telephone encounters logged at a tertiary referral IBD center. We analyzed patient demographics, disease characteristics, comorbidities, clinical activity, and health care financial charges by telephone encounter frequency. Eight hundred one patients met inclusion criteria (52.3% female; mean age, 44.1 y), accounted for 12,669 telephone encounters, and accrued $70,513,449 in charges over 3 years. High telephone encounter frequency was associated with female gender (P=0.003), anxiety/depression (P<0.001), and prior IBD surgery (P<0.001). High telephone encounter categories had significantly more hospitalizations (P<0.001), IBD surgery (P<0.001), worse quality of life (P<0.001), more corticosteroid (P<0.001), biological (P<0.001), and opiate prescriptions (P<0.001). High telephone encounter frequency patients amassed higher total available charges in each year (P<0.001) and over the 3 years (P<0.001). Telephone encounters in 2009 (P=0.02) and 2010 (P<0.001) were significantly associated with financial charges the following year after controlling for demographic, utilization, and medication covariates. Increased telephone encounters are associated with significantly higher health care utilization and financial expenditures. Increased call frequency is predictive of future health care spending. Telephone encounters are a useful tool to identify patients at risk of clinical deterioration and large financial expense.

Connections between Future Time Perspectives and Self-Regulated Learning for Mid-Year Engineering Students: A Multiple Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chasmar, Justine

2017-01-01

This dissertation presents multiple studies with the purpose of understanding the connections between undergraduate engineering students' motivations, specifically students' Future Time Perspectives (FTPs) and Self-Regulated Learning (SRL). FTP refers to the views students hold about the future and how their perceptions of current tasks are…

The ROOTS study: a 10-year review of findings on adolescent depression, and recommendations for future longitudinal research.

PubMed

Lewis, Gemma; Jones, Peter B; Goodyer, Ian M

2016-02-01

The purpose of this study is to review longitudinal findings on adolescent mental health from the 'ROOTS study', and provide directions and recommendations for future longitudinal research. To do this, we discuss relevant findings from the ROOTS study, and review its strengths and limitations. We examined all publications from the ROOTS study up to July 2015, selected those examining adolescent mental health, and classified them as investigating (a) childhood risk factors for adolescent depression, (b) genetic and cognitive vulnerability to depression in adolescence, (c) genetic markers, childhood adversities, and neuroendophenotypes, (d) morning cortisol and depression, (e) physical activity and depression symptoms, and (f) the underlying structure of mental health in adolescence. We reviewed the strengths and limitations of the ROOTS study, and how they feed into recommendations for future longitudinal research. There was evidence supporting a putative hormonal biomarker for the emergence of depression in boys. Environmental pathways from child adversity to adolescent depression were confirmed in girls, partly accounted for by negative life events in early adolescence. The preceding role of automatic cognitive biases assessed using behavioural tasks was substantiated, with evidence for genetic susceptibility. Novel latent statistical models of child adversity, depression, anxiety, and psychotic experiences were produced, with concurrent and prospective validity. Our experiences conducting the ROOTS study resulted in a set of strengths, limitations, and recommendations for future longitudinal studies. The ROOTS study has advanced knowledge on the aetiology of adolescent depression by investigating environmental, genetic, hormonal, and neural risk factors. Findings provide a foundation for future research integrating cognitive neuroscience with epidemiology.

Is Clinical Assessment of Addiction Severity of Individuals with Substance Use Disorder, Using the Addiction Severity Index, A Predictor of Future Inpatient Mental Health Hospitalization? A Nine-Year Registry Study.

PubMed

Padyab, Mojgan; Armelius, Bengt-Åke; Armelius, Kerstin; Nyström, Siv; Blom, Björn; Grönlund, Ann-Sofie; Lundgren, Lena

2018-04-23

In Sweden, the Addiction Severity Index (ASI) is the Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare's recommended substance use disorder assessment tool and used routinely for patient intakes. Our study of 213 individuals assessed for substance use disorder with the ASI used nine years of the National Patient Register and examined whether clinical social workers' assessments of addiction severity at baseline were associated with later hospitalizations for mental health disorder (MHD). ASI composite scores and interviewer severity rating were used to measure clients' problems in seven areas (mental health, family and social relationships, employment, alcohol, drug use, health, and legal) at baseline. A stepwise regression method was used to assess the relative importance of ASI composite scores, MHD hospitalization two years prior to baseline, age, and gender for MHD hospitalization seven years post-baseline. Almost two-thirds of the individuals (63%) were hospitalized at least once for MHD in the seven years post-baseline. At the multivariable level, MHD hospitalization prior to baseline was the strongest predictor of future MHD hospitalization, followed by ASI composite scores for drug use, employment, mental health and, last, male gender. A key finding is that higher ASI composite scores for drug use and mental health are predictors of future need for MHD treatment. Future studies will replicate this effort with a national population of individuals with substance use disorder.

Psychological Predictors of Mortality: Evidence from a 41-Year Prospective Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Graves, Pirkko L.; And Others

The Precursors Study, initiated in 1946, has focused on searching for links between psychological patterns and future disease and death. Gathering a broad spectrum of psychobiological characteristics from a large group of medical students, this study has continued year after year. This study examined the role of psychological factors on mortality,…

Electrification Futures Study Technology Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jadun, Paige; McMillan, Colin; Steinberg, Daniel

This data supplements the "Electrification Futures Study: End-Use Electric Technology Cost and Performance Projections through 2050" report. The data included here consist of the cost and performance estimates for electric end-use technologies developed for the three sensitivity cases in the Electrification Futures Study: Slow Advancement, Moderate Advancement, and Rapid Advancement.

Future prospect 2012-2025 - How will our business change for the next 10 years -

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, Sakae

2013-04-01

The purpose of this lecture is to discuss about the "Future". How our business will change in the next 10 years? I believe the key is 3 mega-trends "Sustainability", "Cloud Computing" and "Life Innovation". With the development of social environment, the required business will change, too. The future would be invisible if you shut yourself up in your single industry. It is important to see various business fields horizontally, and recognize various key changes stereoscopically such as demographics, economy, technology, sense of value and lifestyle, when you develop mid-and-long term strategy. "Cloud" is silent, but the revolution of personal computing. It will bring the drastic changes in every industry. It will make "voice" and "moving image" possible to use as the interface to access your computer. Cloud computing will also make the client device more diversified and spread the application range widely. 15 years ago, the term "IT" was equivalent to "personal computer". Recently, it rather means to use smartphone and tablet device. In the next several years, TV and car-navigation system will be connected to broadband and it will become a part of personal computing. The meaning of personal computing is changing essentially year by year. In near future, the universe of computing will expand to the energy, medical and health-care, and agriculture etc. It passed only 20 years since we use "Computer" in a full scale operation. Recently, computer has start understanding our few words and talking in babble like a baby. The history of computing has just started.

Renewable Electricity Futures Study Executive Summary

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mai, Trieu; Sandor, Debra; Wiser, Ryan

2012-12-01

The Renewable Electricity Futures Study (RE Futures) provides an analysis of the grid integration opportunities, challenges, and implications of high levels of renewable electricity generation for the U.S. electric system. The study is not a market or policy assessment. Rather, RE Futures examines renewable energy resources and many technical issues related to the operability of the U.S. electricity grid, and provides initial answers to important questions about the integration of high penetrations of renewable electricity technologies from a national perspective. RE Futures results indicate that a future U.S. electricity system that is largely powered by renewable sources is possible andmore » that further work is warranted to investigate this clean generation pathway.« less

When does the future begin? Time metrics matter, connecting present and future selves.

PubMed

Lewis, Neil A; Oyserman, Daphna

2015-06-01

People assume they should attend to the present; their future self can handle the future. This seemingly plausible rule of thumb can lead people astray, in part because some future events require current action. In order for the future to energize and motivate current action, it must feel imminent. To create this sense of imminence, we manipulated time metric--the units (e.g., days, years) in which time is considered. People interpret accessible time metrics in two ways: If preparation for the future is under way (Studies 1 and 2), people interpret metrics as implying when a future event will occur. If preparation is not under way (Studies 3-5), they interpret metrics as implying when preparation should start (e.g., planning to start saving 4 times sooner for a retirement in 10,950 days instead of 30 years). Time metrics mattered not because they changed how distal or important future events felt (Study 6), but because they changed how connected and congruent their current and future selves felt (Study 7). © The Author(s) 2015.

Electrification Futures Study Modeling Approach | Energy Analysis | NREL

Science.gov Websites

Electrification Futures Study Modeling Approach Electrification Futures Study Modeling Approach To quantitatively answer the research questions of the Electrification Futures Study, researchers will use multiple accounting for infrastructure inertia through stock turnover. Load Modeling The Electrification Futures Study

49 CFR 526.5 - Earning offsetting monetary credits in future model years.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... UNDER THE AUTOMOBILE FUEL EFFICIENCY ACT OF 1980 § 526.5 Earning offsetting monetary credits in future... for the class of automobiles which may fail to comply with a fuel economy standard and for any other classes of automobiles from which credits may be transferred, for the current model year and for each...

49 CFR 526.5 - Earning offsetting monetary credits in future model years.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... UNDER THE AUTOMOBILE FUEL EFFICIENCY ACT OF 1980 § 526.5 Earning offsetting monetary credits in future... for the class of automobiles which may fail to comply with a fuel economy standard and for any other classes of automobiles from which credits may be transferred, for the current model year and for each...

49 CFR 526.5 - Earning offsetting monetary credits in future model years.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... UNDER THE AUTOMOBILE FUEL EFFICIENCY ACT OF 1980 § 526.5 Earning offsetting monetary credits in future... for the class of automobiles which may fail to comply with a fuel economy standard and for any other classes of automobiles from which credits may be transferred, for the current model year and for each...

49 CFR 526.5 - Earning offsetting monetary credits in future model years.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... UNDER THE AUTOMOBILE FUEL EFFICIENCY ACT OF 1980 § 526.5 Earning offsetting monetary credits in future... for the class of automobiles which may fail to comply with a fuel economy standard and for any other classes of automobiles from which credits may be transferred, for the current model year and for each...

Establishment of sustainable health science for future generations: from a hundred years ago to a hundred years in the future.

PubMed

Mori, Chisato; Todaka, Emiko

2009-01-01

Recently, we have investigated the relationship between environment and health from a scientific perspective and developed a new academic field, "Sustainable Health Science" that will contribute to creating a healthy environment for future generations. There are three key points in Sustainable Heath Science. The first key point is "focusing on future generations"-society should improve the environment and prevent possible adverse health effects on future generations (Environmental Preventive Medicine). The second key point is the "precautious principle". The third key point is "transdisciplinary science", which means that not only medical science but also other scientific fields, such as architectural and engineering science, should be involved. Here, we introduce our recent challenging project "Chemiless Town Project", in which a model town is under construction with fewer chemicals. In the project, a trial of an education program and a health-examination system of chemical exposure is going to be conducted. In the future, we are aiming to establish health examination of exposure to chemicals of women of reproductive age so that the risk of adverse health effects to future generations will decrease and they can enjoy a better quality of life. We hope that society will accept the importance of forming a sustainable society for future generations not only with regard to chemicals but also to the whole surrounding environment. As the proverb of American native people tells us, we should live considering the effects on seven generations in the future.

Future of Army Water Studies

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-05-01

Energy/ Water Nexus • Thermoelectric power • Geothermal • Biofuels • Solar-hot water • Hydropower • Carbon Capture • “ Fracking ” Regional Water Balance...Future of Army Water Studies Marc Kodack Senior Fellow, Army Environmental Policy Institute/Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army...number. 1. REPORT DATE MAY 2011 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2011 to 00-00-2011 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Future of Army Water Studies

50 years of Arabidopsis research: highlights and future directions.

PubMed

Provart, Nicholas J; Alonso, Jose; Assmann, Sarah M; Bergmann, Dominique; Brady, Siobhan M; Brkljacic, Jelena; Browse, John; Chapple, Clint; Colot, Vincent; Cutler, Sean; Dangl, Jeff; Ehrhardt, David; Friesner, Joanna D; Frommer, Wolf B; Grotewold, Erich; Meyerowitz, Elliot; Nemhauser, Jennifer; Nordborg, Magnus; Pikaard, Craig; Shanklin, John; Somerville, Chris; Stitt, Mark; Torii, Keiko U; Waese, Jamie; Wagner, Doris; McCourt, Peter

2016-02-01

922 I. 922 II. 922 III. 925 IV. 925 V. 926 VI. 927 VII. 928 VIII. 929 IX. 930 X. 931 XI. 932 XII. 933 XIII. Natural variation and genome-wide association studies 934 XIV. 934 XV. 935 XVI. 936 XVII. 937 937 References 937 SUMMARY: The year 2014 marked the 25(th) International Conference on Arabidopsis Research. In the 50 yr since the first International Conference on Arabidopsis Research, held in 1965 in Göttingen, Germany, > 54 000 papers that mention Arabidopsis thaliana in the title, abstract or keywords have been published. We present herein a citational network analysis of these papers, and touch on some of the important discoveries in plant biology that have been made in this powerful model system, and highlight how these discoveries have then had an impact in crop species. We also look to the future, highlighting some outstanding questions that can be readily addressed in Arabidopsis. Topics that are discussed include Arabidopsis reverse genetic resources, stock centers, databases and online tools, cell biology, development, hormones, plant immunity, signaling in response to abiotic stress, transporters, biosynthesis of cells walls and macromolecules such as starch and lipids, epigenetics and epigenomics, genome-wide association studies and natural variation, gene regulatory networks, modeling and systems biology, and synthetic biology. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

Knee Pain and Future Self-Reliance in Older Adults: Evidence From a Community-Based 3-Year Cohort Study in Japan

PubMed Central

Nishiwaki, Yuji; Michikawa, Takehiro; Yamada, Mutsuko; Eto, Norihito; Takebayashi, Toru

2011-01-01

Background Although knee pain is common in older persons and can cause ambulatory limitation, its impact on self-reliance has rarely been examined in Japan, particularly in a community setting. The aim of this 3-year cohort study was to investigate the association of knee pain with dependence in activities of daily living (ADL) and mortality in community-dwelling older Japanese adults. Methods In 2005, presence of knee pain was assessed by a home visit survey of 1391 older adults aged 65 years or older (participation proportion = 97.3%). A total of 1265 participants who were ADL-independent at baseline were followed for 3 years, and information on outcomes, namely death and dependence in ADL, was collected. Results Participants who always had knee pain were more likely to become dependent in ADL than those who reported no knee pain (multivariate-adjusted OR, 1.98; 95% CI, 1.03–3.83); however, always having knee pain was not associated with mortality or a composite outcome of ADL dependence and death. Further analyses of each component of ADL dependence revealed that knee pain was associated with a need for assistance at home (long-term care eligibility, bathing, dressing, and transferring), but not with institutionalization. Conclusions The participants were highly representative of the target population and the rate of follow-up was almost perfect (99.4%). The results suggest that knee pain is associated with future dependence in ADL, particularly a need for assistance at home. PMID:21422701

Knee pain and future self-reliance in older adults: evidence from a community-based 3-year cohort study in Japan.

PubMed

Nishiwaki, Yuji; Michikawa, Takehiro; Yamada, Mutsuko; Eto, Norihito; Takebayashi, Toru

2011-01-01

Although knee pain is common in older persons and can cause ambulatory limitation, its impact on self-reliance has rarely been examined in Japan, particularly in a community setting. The aim of this 3-year cohort study was to investigate the association of knee pain with dependence in activities of daily living (ADL) and mortality in community-dwelling older Japanese adults. In 2005, presence of knee pain was assessed by a home visit survey of 1391 older adults aged 65 years or older (participation proportion = 97.3%). A total of 1265 participants who were ADL-independent at baseline were followed for 3 years, and information on outcomes, namely death and dependence in ADL, was collected. Participants who always had knee pain were more likely to become dependent in ADL than those who reported no knee pain (multivariate-adjusted OR, 1.98; 95% CI, 1.03-3.83); however, always having knee pain was not associated with mortality or a composite outcome of ADL dependence and death. Further analyses of each component of ADL dependence revealed that knee pain was associated with a need for assistance at home (long-term care eligibility, bathing, dressing, and transferring), but not with institutionalization. The participants were highly representative of the target population and the rate of follow-up was almost perfect (99.4%). The results suggest that knee pain is associated with future dependence in ADL, particularly a need for assistance at home.

Projecting diabetes prevalence among Mexicans aged 50 years and older: the Future Elderly Model-Mexico (FEM-Mexico)

PubMed Central

Tysinger, Bryan; Goldman, Dana P; Wong, Rebeca

2017-01-01

Objective Diabetes has been growing as a major health problem and a significant burden on the population and on health systems of developing countries like Mexico that are also ageing fast. The goal of the study was to estimate the future prevalence of diabetes among Mexico’s older adults to assess the current and future health and economic burden of diabetes. Design A simulation study using longitudinal data from three waves (2001, 2003 and 2012) of the Mexican Health and Aging Study and adapting the Future Elderly Model to simulate four scenarios of hypothetical interventions that would reduce diabetes incidence and to project the future diabetes prevalence rates among populations 50 years and older. Participants Data from 14 662 participants with information on self-reported diabetes, demographic characteristics, health and mortality. Outcome measures We obtained, for each scenario of diabetes incidence reduction, the following summary measures for the population aged 50 and older from 2012 to 2050: prevalence of diabetes, total population with diabetes, number of medical visits. Results In 2012, there were approximately 20.7 million persons aged 50 and older in Mexico; 19.3% had been diagnosed with diabetes and the 2001–2003 diabetes incidence was 4.3%. The no-intervention scenario shows that the prevalence of diabetes is projected to increase from 19.3% in 2012 to 34.0% in 2050. Under the 30% incidence reduction scenario, the prevalence of diabetes will be 28.6% in 2050. Comparing the no-intervention scenario with the 30% and 60% diabetes incidence reduction scenarios, we estimate a total of 816 320 and 1.6 million annual averted cases of diabetes, respectively, for the year 2020. Discussion Our study underscores the importance of diabetes as a disease by itself and also the potential healthcare demands and social burden of this disease and the need for policy interventions to reduce diabetes prevalence. PMID:29074514

Projecting diabetes prevalence among Mexicans aged 50 years and older: the Future Elderly Model-Mexico (FEM-Mexico).

PubMed

Gonzalez-Gonzalez, Cesar; Tysinger, Bryan; Goldman, Dana P; Wong, Rebeca

2017-10-25

Diabetes has been growing as a major health problem and a significant burden on the population and on health systems of developing countries like Mexico that are also ageing fast. The goal of the study was to estimate the future prevalence of diabetes among Mexico's older adults to assess the current and future health and economic burden of diabetes. A simulation study using longitudinal data from three waves (2001, 2003 and 2012) of the Mexican Health and Aging Study and adapting the Future Elderly Model to simulate four scenarios of hypothetical interventions that would reduce diabetes incidence and to project the future diabetes prevalence rates among populations 50 years and older. Data from 14 662 participants with information on self-reported diabetes, demographic characteristics, health and mortality. We obtained, for each scenario of diabetes incidence reduction, the following summary measures for the population aged 50 and older from 2012 to 2050: prevalence of diabetes, total population with diabetes, number of medical visits. In 2012, there were approximately 20.7 million persons aged 50 and older in Mexico; 19.3% had been diagnosed with diabetes and the 2001-2003 diabetes incidence was 4.3%. The no-intervention scenario shows that the prevalence of diabetes is projected to increase from 19.3% in 2012 to 34.0% in 2050. Under the 30% incidence reduction scenario, the prevalence of diabetes will be 28.6% in 2050. Comparing the no-intervention scenario with the 30% and 60% diabetes incidence reduction scenarios, we estimate a total of 816 320 and 1.6 million annual averted cases of diabetes, respectively, for the year 2020. Our study underscores the importance of diabetes as a disease by itself and also the potential healthcare demands and social burden of this disease and the need for policy interventions to reduce diabetes prevalence. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Executive Summary

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mai, T.; Sandor, D.; Wiser, R.

2012-12-01

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a futuremore » through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%-90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).« less

50 years of Arabidopsis research: highlights and future directions

DOE PAGES

Provart, Nicholas J.; Alonso, Jose; Assmann, Sarah M.; ...

2015-10-14

The year 2014 marked the 25 th International Conference on Arabidopsis Research. In the 50 yr since the first International Conference on Arabidopsis Research, held in 1965 in Göttingen, Germany, > 54 000 papers that mention Arabidopsis thaliana in the title, abstract or keywords have been published. In this paper, we present herein a citational network analysis of these papers, and touch on some of the important discoveries in plant biology that have been made in this powerful model system, and highlight how these discoveries have then had an impact in crop species. We also look to the future, highlightingmore » some outstanding questions that can be readily addressed in Arabidopsis. Topics that are discussed include Arabidopsis reverse genetic resources, stock centers, databases and online tools, cell biology, development, hormones, plant immunity, signaling in response to abiotic stress, transporters, biosynthesis of cells walls and macromolecules such as starch and lipids, epigenetics and epigenomics, genome-wide association studies and natural variation, gene regulatory networks, modeling and systems biology, and synthetic biology.« less

50 years of Arabidopsis research: highlights and future directions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Provart, Nicholas J.; Alonso, Jose; Assmann, Sarah M.

The year 2014 marked the 25 th International Conference on Arabidopsis Research. In the 50 yr since the first International Conference on Arabidopsis Research, held in 1965 in Göttingen, Germany, > 54 000 papers that mention Arabidopsis thaliana in the title, abstract or keywords have been published. In this paper, we present herein a citational network analysis of these papers, and touch on some of the important discoveries in plant biology that have been made in this powerful model system, and highlight how these discoveries have then had an impact in crop species. We also look to the future, highlightingmore » some outstanding questions that can be readily addressed in Arabidopsis. Topics that are discussed include Arabidopsis reverse genetic resources, stock centers, databases and online tools, cell biology, development, hormones, plant immunity, signaling in response to abiotic stress, transporters, biosynthesis of cells walls and macromolecules such as starch and lipids, epigenetics and epigenomics, genome-wide association studies and natural variation, gene regulatory networks, modeling and systems biology, and synthetic biology.« less

Assessment of dental caries predictors in 6-year-old school children - results from 5-year retrospective cohort study

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background This was a retrospective cohort study undertaken to assess the rate and pattern of dental caries development in 6-year-old school children followed-up for a period of 5 years, and to identify baseline risk factors that were associated with 5 years caries experience in Malaysian children. Methods This 5-years retrospective cohort study comprised primary school children initially aged 6 years in 2004. Caries experience of each child was recorded annually using World Health Organization criteria. The rates of dental caries were recorded in prevalence and incidence density of carious lesions from baseline to final examination. Risk assessment was done to assess relative risk for caries after 5 years in children with baseline caries status. Simple and multiple logistic regression analysis were performed to identify significant independent risk factors for caries. Results The sample consisted of 1830 school children. All components of DMFT showed significant differences between baseline and final examination. Filled teeth (FT) component of the DMFT showed the greatest increases. Results revealed the initial baseline caries level in permanent dentition was a strong predictor for future caries after 5 years (RR=3.78, 95% CI=3.48-4.10, P<0.001). Logistic regression analysis showed significant association between caries occurrence and residence (urban/rural) (OR=1.80, P<0.001). However, it was not significantly associated with gender and ethnicity. The incidence density of caries, affected persons (IDp) observed from baseline and after 5 years was 5.80 persons/100 person-year of observation. The rate of new caries-affected tooth (IDt) in the period from baseline and after 5-years was 0.76 teeth/100 teeth-year of observation. Conclusion The majority of 12-year-old school children (70%) were caries-free and most of the caries were concentrated in only a small proportion (30%) of them. We found that the presence of caries in permanent teeth at the age of 6 years was

It’s about time: How do sky surveys manage uncertainty about scientific needs many years into the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darch, Peter T.; Sands, Ashley E.

2016-06-01

Sky surveys, such as the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST), generate data on an unprecedented scale. While many scientific projects span a few years from conception to completion, sky surveys are typically on the scale of decades. This paper focuses on critical challenges arising from long timescales, and how sky surveys address these challenges.We present findings from a study of LSST, comprising interviews (n=58) and observation. Conceived in the 1990s, the LSST Corporation was formed in 2003, and construction began in 2014. LSST will commence data collection operations in 2022 for ten years.One challenge arising from this long timescale is uncertainty about future needs of the astronomers who will use these data many years hence. Sources of uncertainty include scientific questions to be posed, astronomical phenomena to be studied, and tools and practices these astronomers will have at their disposal. These uncertainties are magnified by the rapid technological and scientific developments anticipated between now and the start of LSST operations.LSST is implementing a range of strategies to address these challenges. Some strategies involve delaying resolution of uncertainty, placing this resolution in the hands of future data users. Other strategies aim to reduce uncertainty by shaping astronomers’ data analysis practices so that these practices will integrate well with LSST once operations begin.One approach that exemplifies both types of strategy is the decision to make LSST data management software open source, even now as it is being developed. This policy will enable future data users to adapt this software to evolving needs. In addition, LSST intends for astronomers to start using this software well in advance of 2022, thereby embedding LSST software and data analysis approaches in the practices of astronomers.These findings strengthen arguments for making the software supporting sky surveys available as open

Subject preferences of first- and second-year medical students for their future specialization at Chitwan Medical College and Teaching Hospital, Chitwan, Nepal - a questionnaire-based study.

PubMed

Jha, Rajesh K; Paudel, Keshab R; Shah, Dev K; Sah, Ajit K; Basnet, Sangharshila; Sah, Phoolgen; Adhikari, Sandeep

2015-01-01

The selection of a discipline for future specialization may be an important factor for the medical students' future career, and it is influenced by multiple factors. The interest of students in the early stages can be improved in subjects related to public health or of academic importance, as per need. A questionnaire-based study was conducted among 265 first- and second-year medical students of Chitwan Medical College, Nepal to find out their subject of preference for postgraduation and the factors affecting their selection along with their interesting basic science subject. Only the responses from 232 completely filled questionnaires were analyzed. The preference of the students for clinical surgical (50.9%), clinical medical (45.3%), and basic medical (3.9%) sciences for postgraduation were in descending order. The most preferred specialty among male students was clinical surgical sciences (56.3%), and among female students, it was clinical medical sciences (53.6%). Although all the students responded to their preferred specialty, only 178 students specified the subject of their interest. General surgery (23.4%), pediatrics (23.4%), and anatomy (2.4%) were the most favored subjects for postgraduation among clinical surgical, clinical medical, and basic medical sciences specialties, respectively. More common reasons for selection of specific subject for future career were found to be: personal interests, good income, intellectual challenge, and others. Many students preferred clinical surgical sciences for their future specialization. Among the reasons for the selection of the specialty for postgraduation, no significant reason could be elicited from the present study.

Canines are affected in 16-year-olds with molar-incisor hypomineralisation (MIH): an epidemiological study based on the Tromsø study: "Fit Futures".

PubMed

Schmalfuss, A; Stenhagen, K R; Tveit, A B; Crossner, C-G; Espelid, I

2016-04-01

This was to determine the prevalence, distribution of affected teeth and severity of MIH in adolescents from Northern Norway. It was part of a cross-sectional health survey Fit Futures including 16-year-olds from two neighbouring municipalities, Tromsø and Balsfjord. The prevalence of MIH was 13.9% (110 of 794). The maxillary first permanent molars (FPMs) were 1.6 times more frequently affected than in the mandible (P < 0.001). The FPMs on the right side were 1.2 times more often affected than the FPMs on the left side (P = 0.038). The maxillary incisors were 2.5 times more often affected than the incisors in the mandible (P < 0.001). The proportions of participants whose canines and incisors were involved were 22.8 and 41.8%, respectively. Altogether 201 FPMs were affected; 54.0% of these had opacities only, 24.3% had posteruptive breakdown (PEB), 18.8% had atypical restorations, and 3.0% had been extracted due to MIH. The buccal surfaces were most often affected in FPMs. More severe lesions were found in the mandibular FPMs compared with the maxillary FPMs (P = 0.002). In the lower canines, only opacities were recorded, while in the upper jaw 13.0% of the affected canines showed PEBs. The distribution of MIH in the dentition was not symmetrical. The prevalence of MIH (13.9%) in the study population of 16-year-olds from Northern Norway is consistent with previous Scandinavian reports. The distribution pattern shows that one participant in four with MIH had at least one affected canine. Further studies are needed to describe the localisation of defects on the enamel surface and to relate these findings to enamel thickness and the duration of amelogenesis.

PROJECTING FUTURE-YEAR POLLUTANT EMISSIONS: EMERGING APPROACHES FROM THE EPA ORD GLOBAL CHANGE AIR QUALITY ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. EPA's Office of Research and Development is exploring approaches for assessing the relative impacts of climate and emissions changes on future-year air quality. A challenge related to this effort is the development of emissions inventories out to the year 2050. This pap...

Work ability score and future work ability as predictors of register-based disability pension and long-term sickness absence: A three-year follow-up study.

PubMed

Kinnunen, Ulla; Nätti, Jouko

2018-05-01

We investigated two single items of the Work Ability Index - work ability score, and future work ability - as predictors of register-based disability pension and long-term sickness absence over a three-year follow-up. Survey responses of 11,131 Finnish employees were linked to pension and long-term (more than 10 days) sickness absence register data by Statistics Finland. Work ability score was divided into poor (0-5), moderate (6-7) and good/excellent (8-10) and future work ability into poor (1-2) and good (3) work ability at baseline. Cox proportional hazard regressions were used in the analysis of disability pension, and a negative binomial model in the analysis of long-term sickness absence. The results were adjusted for several background, work- and health-related covariates. Compared with those with good/excellent work ability scores, the hazard ratios of disability pension after adjusting for all covariates were 9.84 (95% CI 6.68-14.49) for poor and 2.25 (CI 95% 1.51-3.35) for moderate work ability score. For future work ability, the hazard ratio was 8.19 (95% CI 4.71-14.23) among those with poor future work ability. The incidence rate ratios of accumulated long-term sickness absence days were 3.08 (95% CI 2.19-4.32) and 1.59 (95% CI 1.32-1.92) for poor and moderate work ability scores, and 1.51 (95% CI 0.97-2.36) for poor future work ability. The single items of work ability score and future work ability predicted register-based disability pension equally well, but work ability score was a better predictor of register-based long-term sickness absence days than future work ability in a three-year follow-up. Both items seem to be of use especially when examining the risk of poor work ability for disability but also for long sick leave.

Europe Unveils 20-Year Plan for Brilliant Future in Astronomy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

2008-11-01

Astronomy is enjoying a golden age of fundamental, exciting discoveries. Europe is at the forefront, thanks to 50 years of progress in cooperation. To remain ahead over the next two to three decades, Europe must prioritise and coordinate the investment of its financial and human resources even more closely. The ASTRONET network, backed by the entire European scientific community, supported by the European Commission, and coordinated by the CNRS, today presents its Roadmap for a brilliant future for European astronomy. ESO's European Extremely Large Telescope is ranked as one of two top-priority large ground-based projects. Astronet and the E-ELT ESO PR Photo 43a/08 The E-ELT Europe is a leader in astronomy today, with the world's most successful optical observatory, ESO's Very Large Telescope, and cutting-edge facilities in radio astronomy and in space. In an unprecedented effort demonstrating the potential of European scientific cooperation, all of European astronomy is now joining forces to define the scientific challenges for the future and construct a common plan to address them in a cost-effective manner. In 2007, a top-level Science Vision was prepared to assess the most burning scientific questions over the next quarter century, ranging from dark energy to life on other planets. European astronomy now presents its Infrastructure Roadmap, a comprehensive 20-year plan to coordinate national and community investments to meet these challenges in a cost-effective manner. The Roadmap not only prioritises the necessary new frontline research facilities from radio telescopes to planetary probes, in space and on the ground, but also considers such key issues as existing facilities, human resources, ICT infrastructure, education and outreach, and cost -- of operations as well as construction. This bold new initiative -- ASTRONET -- was created by the major European funding agencies with support from the European Commission and is coordinated by the National Institute

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 1. Exploration of High-Penetration Renewable Electricity Futures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hand, M. M.; Baldwin, S.; DeMeo, E.

2012-06-15

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a futuremore » through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%–90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Learn more at the RE Futures website. http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re_futures/« less

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 1: Exploration of High-Penetration Renewable Electricity Futures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mai, T.; Wiser, R.; Sandor, D.

2012-06-01

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a futuremore » through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%-90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).« less

Association of triiodothyronine levels with future development of metabolic syndrome in euthyroid middle-aged subjects: a 6-year retrospective longitudinal study.

PubMed

Kim, Hye Jeong; Bae, Ji Cheol; Park, Hyeong Kyu; Byun, Dong Won; Suh, Kyoil; Yoo, Myung Hi; Jae Hwan, Jee; Kim, Jae Hyeon; Min, Yong-Ki; Kim, Sun Wook; Chung, Jae Hoon

2017-04-01

Several cross-sectional studies have reported that thyroid hormone levels are associated with cardiovascular risk markers and metabolic syndrome (MetS) even in euthyroid subjects. However, the prognostic role of serum thyroid hormone levels in the risk of incident MetS has not been elucidated. We aimed to investigate the associations of baseline serum thyroid hormone levels with the development of MetS in healthy subjects. This 6-year, cross-sectional, longitudinal and follow-up study was conducted in 12 037 euthyroid middle-aged subjects without MetS subjected to comprehensive health examinations. Subjects were grouped according to total triiodothyronine (T3) quartiles. The hazard ratio (HR) for the development of MetS according to T3 quartiles was estimated using Cox proportional hazards model. During the 6-year period, 3544 incident cases of MetS (29%) were identified. The proportion of subjects with incident MetS increased across the T3 quartiles ( P for trend <0.001). The HR and 95% confidence interval (CI) for the development of MetS were significantly higher in the highest T3 quartile compared with the lowest T3 quartile even after adjusting for confounding variables including gender, age and smoking (HR: 1.238, 95% CI: 1.128-1.358, P  < 0.001). In euthyroid middle-aged subjects, serum T3 levels are associated with increased risk for future development of MetS. © 2017 European Society of Endocrinology.

Future Studies in the K-12 Curriculum.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haas, John D.

This guide is designed to help elementary and secondary school teachers and curriculum developers plan units on the future. It is presented in five sections. Section I discusses the origins of the modern futures movement and the concepts of future studies, time dimensions, global approach, self-fulfilling and self-defeating forecasts, and types of…

Risk of future trauma based on alcohol screening scores: A two-year prospective cohort study among US veterans

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Severe alcohol misuse as measured by the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test–Consumption (AUDIT-C) is associated with increased risk of future fractures and trauma-related hospitalizations. This study examined the association between AUDIT-C scores and two-year risk of any type of trauma among US Veterans Health Administration (VHA) patients and assessed whether risk varied by age or gender. Methods Outpatients (215, 924 male and 9168 female) who returned mailed AUDIT-C questionnaires were followed for 24 months in the medical record for any International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD-9) code related to trauma. The two-year prevalence of trauma was examined as a function of AUDIT-C scores, with low-level drinking (AUDIT-C 1–4) as the reference group. Men and women were examined separately, and age-stratified analyses were performed. Results Having an AUDIT-C score of 9–12 (indicating severe alcohol misuse) was associated with increased risk for trauma. Mean (SD) ages for men and women were 68.2 (11.5) and 57.2 (15.8), respectively. Age-stratified analyses showed that, for men ≤50 years, those with AUDIT-C scores ≥9 had an increased risk for trauma compared with those with AUDIT-C scores in the 1–4 range (adjusted prevalence, 25.7% versus 20.8%, respectively; OR = 1.24; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03–1.50). For men ≥65 years with average comorbidity and education, those with AUDIT-C scores of 5–8 (adjusted prevalence, 7.9% versus 7.4%; OR = 1.16; 95% CI, 1.02–1.31) and 9–12 (adjusted prevalence 11.1% versus 7.4%; OR = 1.68; 95% CI, 1.30–2.17) were at significantly increased risk for trauma compared with men ≥65 years in the reference group. Higher AUDIT-C scores were not associated with increased risk of trauma among women. Conclusions Men with severe alcohol misuse (AUDIT-C 9–12) demonstrate an increased risk of trauma. Men ≥65 showed an increased risk

The Development and Coherence of Future-Oriented Behaviors during the Preschool Years

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Atance, Cristina M.; Jackson, Laura K.

2009-01-01

Although previous research has identified a number of interesting aspects of future thinking in adults, little is known about the developmental trajectory and coherence of future-oriented behaviors during early childhood. The primary goal of this study was to explore these issues by administering a battery of tasks assessing different aspects of…

Renewable Electricity Futures Study - Volume One

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hand, Maureen; Mai, Treui; Baldwin, Sam

Renewable Electricity Futures Study - Volume One. This is part of a series of four volumes describing exploring a high-penetration renewable electricity future for the United States of America. This data set is provides data for the entire volume one document and includes all data for the charts and graphs included in the document.

Egocentrism and Development of Students' Identity (On the Example of Studying of Future Teachers)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gromova, Chulpan R.; Alimbekov, Akmatali

2015-01-01

Relevance of the studied problem is that the nature of interrelation between an index of an egocentrism and characteristics of identity isn't studied. Secondly, special trainings of decentration for students--future teachers are not developed. The article is directed to study the structure of the first-third year students' identity, connection…

A 6-year longitudinal study of predictors for suicide attempts in major depressive disorder.

PubMed

Eikelenboom, Merijn; Beekman, Aartjan T F; Penninx, Brenda W J H; Smit, Johannes H

2018-06-13

Major depressive disorder (MDD), represent a major source of risk for suicidality. However, knowledge about risk factors for future suicide attempts (SAs) within MDD is limited. The present longitudinal study examined a wide range of putative non-clinical risk factors (demographic, social, lifestyle, personality) and clinical risk factors (depressive and suicidal indicators) for future SAs among persons with MDD. Furthermore, we examined the relationship between a number of significant predictors and the incidence of a future SA. Data are from 1713 persons (18-65 years) with a lifetime MDD at the baseline measurement of the Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety who were subsequently followed up 2, 4 and 6 years. SAs were assessed in the face-to-face measurements. Cox proportional hazard regression analyses were used to examine a wide range of possible non-clinical and clinical predictors for subsequent SAs during 6-year follow-up. Over a period of 6 years, 3.4% of the respondents attempted suicide. Younger age, lower education, unemployment, insomnia, antidepressant use, a previous SA and current suicidal thoughts independently predicted a future SA. The number of significant risk factors (ranging from 0 to 7) linearly predicted the incidence of future SAs: in those with 0 predictors the SA incidence was 0%, which increased to 32% incidence in those with 6+ predictors. Of the non-clinical factors, particularly socio-economic factors predicted a SA independently. Furthermore, preexisting suicidal ideation and insomnia appear to be important clinical risk factors for subsequent SA that are open to preventative intervention.

Subject preferences of first- and second-year medical students for their future specialization at Chitwan Medical College and Teaching Hospital, Chitwan, Nepal – a questionnaire-based study

PubMed Central

Jha, Rajesh K; Paudel, Keshab R; Shah, Dev K; Sah, Ajit K; Basnet, Sangharshila; Sah, Phoolgen; Adhikari, Sandeep

2015-01-01

Introduction The selection of a discipline for future specialization may be an important factor for the medical students’ future career, and it is influenced by multiple factors. The interest of students in the early stages can be improved in subjects related to public health or of academic importance, as per need. Methods A questionnaire-based study was conducted among 265 first- and second-year medical students of Chitwan Medical College, Nepal to find out their subject of preference for postgraduation and the factors affecting their selection along with their interesting basic science subject. Only the responses from 232 completely filled questionnaires were analyzed. Results The preference of the students for clinical surgical (50.9%), clinical medical (45.3%), and basic medical (3.9%) sciences for postgraduation were in descending order. The most preferred specialty among male students was clinical surgical sciences (56.3%), and among female students, it was clinical medical sciences (53.6%). Although all the students responded to their preferred specialty, only 178 students specified the subject of their interest. General surgery (23.4%), pediatrics (23.4%), and anatomy (2.4%) were the most favored subjects for postgraduation among clinical surgical, clinical medical, and basic medical sciences specialties, respectively. More common reasons for selection of specific subject for future career were found to be: personal interests, good income, intellectual challenge, and others. Conclusion Many students preferred clinical surgical sciences for their future specialization. Among the reasons for the selection of the specialty for postgraduation, no significant reason could be elicited from the present study. PMID:26635491

International Recommendations for Training Future Toxicologic Pathologists Participating in Regulatory-Type, Nonclinical Toxicity Studies*

PubMed Central

Bolon, Brad; Barale-Thomas, Erio; Bradley, Alys; Ettlin, Robert A.; Franchi, Carla A.S.; George, Catherine; Giusti, Anna Maria; Hall, Robert; Jacobsen, Matthew; Konishi, Yoichi; Ledieu, David; Morton, Daniel; Park, Jae-Hak; Scudamore, Cheryl L.; Tsuda, Hiroyuki; Vijayasarathi, S.K.; Wijnands, Marcel V.W.

2010-01-01

The International Federation of Societies of Toxicologic Pathologists (IFSTP) proposes a common global framework for training future toxicologic pathologists who will support regulatory-type nonclinical toxicology studies. Trainees optimally should undertake a scientific curriculum of at least 5 years at an accredited institution leading to a clinical degree (veterinary medicine or medicine). Trainees should then obtain 4 or more years of intensive pathology practice during a residency and/or on-the-job “apprenticeship,” at least 2 years of which must be focused on regulatory-type toxicologic pathology topics. Possession of a recognized pathology qualification (i.e., certification) is highly recommended. A non-clinical pathway (e.g., a graduate degree in medical biology or pathology) may be possible if medically trained pathologists are scarce, but this option is not optimal. Regular, lifelong continuing education (peer review of nonclinical studies, professional meetings, reading, short courses) will be necessary to maintain and enhance one’s understanding of current toxicologic pathology knowledge, skills, and tools. This framework should provide a rigorous yet flexible way to reliably train future toxicologic pathologists to generate, interpret, integrate, and communicate data in regulatory-type, nonclinical toxicology studies. PMID:22272030

Past, Present and Future: Forty Years of Revista Mexicana de Astronomia y Astrofisica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, Christine; Torres-Peimbert, Silvia

2015-08-01

We cast a retrospective view on 40 years of publishing the Revista Mexicana de Astronomía y Astrofísica, founded in 1974. The journal is peer-reviewed, has appeared regularly since its foundation, and continues to attract original research papers, mostly by Mexican and Latin American authors. We share some musings about the future of our journal, in view of recent developments in the scientific publishing field.

Study of the commonality of space vehicle applications to future national needs (unclassified portion)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

A midterm progress report was presented on the study of commonality of space vehicle applications to future national needs. Two of the four objectives in the entire study were discussed. The first one involved deriving functional requirements for space systems based on future needs and environments for the military and civilian communities. Possible space initiatives based on extrapolations of technology were compiled without regard as to need but only with respect to feasibility, given the advanced state of technology which could exist through the year 2,000. The second one involved matching the initiatives against the requirements, developing a methodology to match and select the initiatives with each of the separate plans based on the future environments, and deriving common features of the military and civilian support requirements for these programs.

Choices and Chances: A Study of Pupils' Choices and Future Career Intentions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ryrie, A. C.; And Others

This book is the first result of a research project involving a study of the process by which young people move through secondary school into work or advanced education. The process of subject choice which takes place at the end of the second year of the Scottish secondary system and the students' intentions for the future, at this stage, are…

Buildings of the Future Scoping Study: A Framework for Vision Development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Na; Goins, John D.

2015-02-01

The Buildings of the Future Scoping Study, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Building Technologies Office, seeks to develop a vision for what U.S. mainstream commercial and residential buildings could become in 100 years. This effort is not intended to predict the future or develop a specific building design solution. Rather, it will explore future building attributes and offer possible pathways of future development. Whether we achieve a more sustainable built environment depends not just on technologies themselves, but on how effectively we envision the future and integrate these technologies in a balanced way that generates economic, social,more » and environmental value. A clear, compelling vision of future buildings will attract the right strategies, inspire innovation, and motivate action. This project will create a cross-disciplinary forum of thought leaders to share their views. The collective views will be integrated into a future building vision and published in September 2015. This report presents a research framework for the vision development effort based on a literature survey and gap analysis. This document has four objectives. First, it defines the project scope. Next, it identifies gaps in the existing visions and goals for buildings and discusses the possible reasons why some visions did not work out as hoped. Third, it proposes a framework to address those gaps in the vision development. Finally, it presents a plan for a series of panel discussions and interviews to explore a vision that mitigates problems with past building paradigms while addressing key areas that will affect buildings going forward.« less

Head Trauma with or without Mild Brain Injury Increases the Risk of Future Traumatic Death: A Controlled Prospective 15-Year Follow-Up Study.

PubMed

Vaaramo, Kalle; Puljula, Jussi; Tetri, Sami; Juvela, Seppo; Hillbom, Matti

2015-10-15

Patients who have recovered from traumatic brain injury (TBI) show an increased risk of premature death. To investigate long-term mortality rates in a population admitted to the hospital for head injury (HI), we conducted a population-based prospective case-control, record-linkage study, All subjects who were living in Northern Ostrobothnia, and who were admitted to Oulu University Hospital in 1999 because of HI (n=737), and 2196 controls matched by age, gender, and residence randomly drawn from the population of Northern Ostrobothnia were included. Death rate and causes of death in HI subjects during 15 years of follow-up was compared with the general population controls. The crude mortality rates were 56.9, 18.6, and 23.8% for subjects having moderate-to-severe traumatic brain injury (TBI), mild TBI, and head injury without TBI, respectively. The corresponding approximate annual mortality rates were 6.7%, 1.4%, and 1.9%. All types of index HI predicted a significant risk of traumatic death in the future. Subjects who had HI without TBI had an increased risk of both death from all causes (hazard ratio 2.00; 95% confidence interval 1.57-2.55) and intentional or unintentional traumatic death (4.01, 2.20-7.30), compared with controls. The main founding was that even HI without TBI carries an increased risk of future traumatic death. The reason for this remains unknown and further studies are needed. To prevent such premature deaths, post-traumatic therapy should include an interview focusing on lifestyle factors.

Reporting Crime Victimizations to the Police and the Incidence of Future Victimizations: A Longitudinal Study.

PubMed

Ranapurwala, Shabbar I; Berg, Mark T; Casteel, Carri

2016-01-01

Law enforcement depends on cooperation from the public and crime victims to protect citizens and maintain public safety; however, many crimes are not reported to police because of fear of repercussions or because the crime is considered trivial. It is unclear how police reporting affects the incidence of future victimization. To evaluate the association between reporting victimization to police and incident future victimization. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using National Crime Victimization Survey 2008-2012 data. Participants were 12+ years old household members who may or may not be victimized, were followed biannually for 3 years, and who completed at least one follow-up survey after their first reported victimization between 2008 and 2012. Crude and adjusted generalized linear mixed regression for survey data with Poisson link were used to compare rates of future victimization. Out of 18,657 eligible participants, 41% participants reported to their initial victimization to police and had a future victimization rate of 42.8/100 person-years (PY) (95% CI: 40.7, 44.8). The future victimization rate of those who did not report to the police (59%) was 55.0/100 PY (95% CI: 53.0, 57.0). The adjusted rate ratio comparing police reporting to not reporting was 0.78 (95%CI: 0.72, 0.84) for all future victimizations, 0.80 (95% CI: 0.72, 0.90) for interpersonal violence, 0.73 (95% CI: 0.68, 0.78) for thefts, and 0.95 (95% CI: 0.84, 1.07) for burglaries. Reporting victimization to police is associated with fewer future victimization, underscoring the importance of police reporting in crime prevention. This association may be attributed to police action and victim services provisions resulting from reporting.

Reporting Crime Victimizations to the Police and the Incidence of Future Victimizations: A Longitudinal Study

PubMed Central

Ranapurwala, Shabbar I.; Berg, Mark T.; Casteel, Carri

2016-01-01

Background Law enforcement depends on cooperation from the public and crime victims to protect citizens and maintain public safety; however, many crimes are not reported to police because of fear of repercussions or because the crime is considered trivial. It is unclear how police reporting affects the incidence of future victimization. Objective To evaluate the association between reporting victimization to police and incident future victimization. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study using National Crime Victimization Survey 2008–2012 data. Participants were 12+ years old household members who may or may not be victimized, were followed biannually for 3 years, and who completed at least one follow-up survey after their first reported victimization between 2008 and 2012. Crude and adjusted generalized linear mixed regression for survey data with Poisson link were used to compare rates of future victimization. Results Out of 18,657 eligible participants, 41% participants reported to their initial victimization to police and had a future victimization rate of 42.8/100 person-years (PY) (95% CI: 40.7, 44.8). The future victimization rate of those who did not report to the police (59%) was 55.0/100 PY (95% CI: 53.0, 57.0). The adjusted rate ratio comparing police reporting to not reporting was 0.78 (95%CI: 0.72, 0.84) for all future victimizations, 0.80 (95% CI: 0.72, 0.90) for interpersonal violence, 0.73 (95% CI: 0.68, 0.78) for thefts, and 0.95 (95% CI: 0.84, 1.07) for burglaries. Conclusions Reporting victimization to police is associated with fewer future victimization, underscoring the importance of police reporting in crime prevention. This association may be attributed to police action and victim services provisions resulting from reporting. PMID:27466811

The development of future thinking: young children's ability to construct event sequences to achieve future goals.

PubMed

Prabhakar, Janani; Hudson, Judith A

2014-11-01

Previous studies suggest that the ability to think about and act on the future emerges between 3 and 5 years of age. However, it is unclear what underlying processes change during the development of early future-oriented behavior. We report three experiments that tested the emergence of future thinking ability through children's ability to explicitly maintain future goals and construct future scenarios. Our main objectives were to examine the effects of goal structure and the effects of working memory demands on children's ability to construct future scenarios and make choices to satisfy future goals. The results indicate that 4-year-olds were able to successfully accomplish two temporally ordered goals even with high working memory demands and a complex goal structure, whereas 3-year-olds were able to accomplish two goals only when the working memory demands were low and the goal structure did not involve additional demands from inferential reasoning and contingencies between the temporally ordered goals. Results are discussed in terms of the development of future thinking in conjunction with working memory, inferential reasoning ability, and goal maintenance abilities. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc.

NREL Launches Electrification Futures Study Series | News | NREL

Science.gov Websites

Study Series First report includes foundational data on cost and performance of electric technologies Futures Study: End-Use Electric Technology Cost and Performance Projections through 2050. This report uses a combination of recently published literature and expert assessment to develop future cost and

EPA's future midwestern landscapes (FML) study

EPA Science Inventory

EPA's ecological research program is initiating research to characterize ecosystem services and enable their routine consideration in environmental management and policy. The "Future Midwestern Landscapes (FML) Study" is one of four place-based studies being planned. Over a 13-st...

The UAE healthy future study: a pilot for a prospective cohort study of 20,000 United Arab Emirates nationals.

PubMed

Abdulle, Abdishakur; Alnaeemi, Abdullah; Aljunaibi, Abdullah; Al Ali, Abdulrahman; Al Saedi, Khaled; Al Zaabi, Eiman; Oumeziane, Naima; Al Bastaki, Marina; Al-Houqani, Mohammed; Al Maskari, Fatma; Al Dhaheri, Ayesha; Shah, Syed M; Loney, Tom; El-Sadig, Mohamed; Oulhaj, Abderrahim; Wareth, Leila Abdel; Al Mahmeed, Wael; Alsafar, Habiba; Hirsch, Benjamin; Al Anouti, Fatme; Yaaqoub, Jamila; Inman, Claire K; Al Hamiz, Aisha; Al Hosani, Ayesha; Haji, Muna; Alsharid, Teeb; Al Zaabi, Thekra; Al Maisary, Fatima; Galani, Divya; Sprosen, Tim; El Shahawy, Omar; Ahn, Jiyoung; Kirchhoff, Tomas; Ramasamy, Ravichandran; Schmidt, Ann Marie; Hayes, Richard; Sherman, Scott; Ali, Raghib

2018-01-05

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is faced with a rapidly increasing burden of non-communicable diseases including obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease. The UAE Healthy Future study is a prospective cohort designed to identify associations between risk factors and these diseases amongst Emiratis. The study will enroll 20,000 UAE nationals aged ≥18 years. Environmental and genetic risk factors will be characterized and participants will be followed for future disease events. As this was the first time a prospective cohort study was being planned in the UAE, a pilot study was conducted in 2015 with the primary aim of establishing the feasibility of conducting the study. Other objectives were to evaluate the implementation of the main study protocols, and to build adequate capacity to conduct advanced clinical laboratory analyses. Seven hundred sixty nine UAE nationals aged ≥18 years were invited to participate voluntarily in the pilot study. Participants signed an informed consent, completed a detailed questionnaire, provided random blood, urine, and mouthwash samples and were assessed for a series of clinical measures. All specimens were transported to the New York University Abu Dhabi laboratories where samples were processed and analyzed for routine chemistry and hematology. Plasma, serum, and a small whole blood sample for DNA extraction were aliquoted and stored at -80 °C for future analyses. Overall, 517 Emirati men and women agreed to participate (68% response rate). Of the total participants, 495 (95.0%), 430 (82.2%), and 492 (94.4%), completed the questionnaire, physical measurements, and provided biological samples, respectively. The pilot study demonstrated the feasibility of recruitment and completion of the study protocols for the first large-scale cohort study designed to identify emerging risk factors for the major non-communicable diseases in the region.

A Longitudinal Study of Adolescents' Future Orientation (Time Perspective).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Trommsdorff, Gisela; And Others

1979-01-01

Vocational or college-bound students responded to four futures orientation variables (personality, physical well-being, family, and occupation) along several dimensions, including hopes and fears, locus of control, and optimism. The same students took the same survey two years later. Age, sex, and educational status differences were noted. (CP)

Future planning in preschool children.

PubMed

Moffett, Lillie; Moll, Henrike; FitzGibbon, Lily

2018-05-01

The capacity to plan ahead and provide the means for future ends is an important part of human practical reasoning. When this capacity develops in ontogeny is the matter of an ongoing debate. In this study, 4- and 5-year-olds performed a future planning task in which they had to create the means (a picture of a particular object, e.g., a banana) that was necessary to address a future end (of completing a game in which such a picture was missing). Children of both ages drew more targets than children in a control condition in which there was no future end to be pursued. Along with prior findings, the results suggest a major progression in children's future thinking between 3 and 5 years. Our findings expand on prior knowledge by showing that young children cannot only identify the probate means to future ends but determine such ends and create the means to achieve them, thus offering compelling evidence for future planning. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

The Association Between Self-Assessed Future Work Ability and Long-Term Sickness Absence, Disability Pension and Unemployment in a General Working Population: A 7-Year Follow-Up Study.

PubMed

Lundin, A; Kjellberg, K; Leijon, O; Punnett, L; Hemmingsson, T

2016-06-01

Purpose Work ability is commonly measured with self-assessments, in the form of indices or single items. The validity of these assessments lies in their predictive ability. Prospective studies have reported associations between work ability and sickness absence and disability pension, but few examined why these associations exist. Several correlates of work ability have been reported, but their mechanistic role is largely unknown. This study aims to investigate to what extent individual's own prognosis of work ability predicts labor market participation and whether this was due to individual characteristics and/or working conditions. Methods Self-assessed prognosis of work ability, 2 years from "now," in the Stockholm Public Health Questionnaire (2002-2003) was linked to national registers on sickness absence, disability pension and unemployment up to year 2010. Effects were studied with Cox regression models. Results Of a total of 12,064 individuals 1466 reported poor work ability. There were 299 cases of disability pension, 1466 long-term sickness absence cases and 765 long-term unemployed during follow-up. Poor work ability increased the risk of long-term sickness absence (HR 2.25, CI 95 % 1.97-2.56), disability pension (HR 5.19, CI 95 % 4.07-6.62), and long-term unemployment (HR 2.18, CI 95 % 1.83-2.60). These associations were partially explained by baseline health conditions, physical and (less strongly) psychosocial aspects of working conditions. Conclusions Self-assessed poor ability predicted future long-term sickness absence, disability pension and long-term unemployment. Self-assessed poor work ability seems to be an indicator of future labor market exclusion of different kinds, and can be used in public health monitoring.

The National Diabetes Education Program at 20 Years: Lessons Learned and Plans for the Future.

PubMed

Siminerio, Linda M; Albright, Ann; Fradkin, Judith; Gallivan, Joanne; McDivitt, Jude; Rodríguez, Betsy; Tuncer, Diane; Wong, Faye

2018-02-01

The National Diabetes Education Program (NDEP) was established to translate findings from diabetes research studies into clinical and public health practice. Over 20 years, NDEP has built a program with partnership engagement that includes science-based resources for multiple population and stakeholder audiences. Throughout its history, NDEP has developed strategies and messages based on communication research and relied on established behavior change models from health education, communication, and social marketing. The program's success in continuing to engage diverse partners after 20 years has led to time-proven and high-quality resources that have been sustained. Today, NDEP maintains a national repository of diabetes education tools and resources that are high quality, science- and audience-based, culturally and linguistically appropriate, and available free of charge to a wide variety of audiences. This review looks back and describes NDEP's evolution in transforming and communicating diabetes management and type 2 diabetes prevention strategies through partnerships, campaigns, educational resources, and tools and identifies future opportunities and plans. © 2018 by the American Diabetes Association.

Counting bodies? On future engagements with science studies in medical anthropology.

PubMed

Yates-Doerr, Emily

2017-08-01

Thirty years ago, Nancy Scheper-Hughes and Margaret Lock outlined a strategy for 'future work in medical anthropology' that focused on three bodies. Their article - a zeitgeist for the field - sought to intervene into the Cartesian dualisms characterizing ethnomedical anthropology at the time. Taking a descriptive and diagnostic approach, they defined 'the mindful body' as a domain of future anthropological inquiry and mapped three analytic concepts that could be used to study it: the individual/phenomenological body, the social body, and the body politic. Three decades later, this paper returns to the 'three bodies'. It analyses ethnographic fieldwork on chronic illness, using a rescriptive, practice-oriented approach to bodies developed by science studies scholars that was not part of the initial three bodies framework. It illustrates how embodiment was a technical achievement in some practices, while in others bodies did not figure as relevant. This leads to the suggestion that an anthropology of health need not be organized around numerable bodies. The paper concludes by suggesting that future work in medical anthropology might embrace translational competency, which does not have the goal of better definitions (better health, better bodies, etc.) but the goal of better engaging with exchanges between medical and non-medical practices. That health professionals are themselves moving away from bodies to embrace 'planetary health' makes a practice-focused orientation especially crucial for medical anthropology today.

Imagining the Future: Perspectives Among Youth and Caregivers in the Trans Youth Family Study

PubMed Central

Katz-Wise, Sabra L.; Budge, Stephanie L.; Orovecz, Joe J.; Nguyen, Bradford; Nava-Coulter, Brett; Thomson, Katharine

2016-01-01

Future perspectives of transgender youth and their caregivers may be shaped by knowledge of discrimination and adverse mental health among transgender adults. Qualitative data from the Trans Youth Family Study were used to examine how transgender and gender nonconforming (TGN) youth and their caregivers imagine the youth's future. A community-based sample of 16 families (16 TGN youth, ages 7-18 years, and 29 caregivers) was recruited from two regions in the United States. Participants completed in-person qualitative interviews and surveys. Interview transcripts were analyzed using grounded theory methodology for coding procedures. Analyses yielded 104 higher order themes across 45 interviews, with eight prominent themes: comparing experiences with others, gender affirming hormones, gender affirming surgery, gender norms, questioning whether the youth is really transgender, expectations for romantic relationships, uncertainty about the future, and worries about physical and emotional safety. A conceptual model of future perspectives in TGN youth and caregivers is presented and clinical implications are discussed. PMID:28068129

Episodic Future Thinking: Mechanisms and Functions.

PubMed

Schacter, Daniel L; Benoit, Roland G; Szpunar, Karl K

2017-10-01

Episodic future thinking refers to the capacity to imagine or simulate experiences that might occur in one's personal future. Cognitive, neuropsychological, and neuroimaging research concerning episodic future thinking has accelerated during recent years. This article discusses research that has delineated cognitive and neural mechanisms that support episodic future thinking as well as the functions that episodic future thinking serves. Studies focused on mechanisms have identified a core brain network that underlies episodic future thinking and have begun to tease apart the relative contributions of particular regions in this network, and the specific cognitive processes that they support. Studies concerned with functions have identified several domains in which episodic future thinking produces performance benefits, including decision making, emotion regulation, prospective memory, and spatial navigation.

Predicting Future-Year Ozone Concentrations: Integrated Observational-Modeling Approach for Probabilistic Evaluation of the Efficacy of Emission Control strategies

EPA Science Inventory

Regional-scale air quality models are being used to demonstrate attainment of the ozone air quality standard. In current regulatory applications, a regional-scale air quality model is applied for a base year and a future year with reduced emissions using the same meteorological ...

[Current State of Studies on Job-related Stress among Psychiatric Social Workers and Insights into Future Research].

PubMed

Yada, Hironori; Abe, Hiroshi; Odachi, Ryo; Iwanaga, Yasushi; Yamane, Toshie

2016-01-01

We studied the characteristics of psychiatric social workers (PSWs) and present research on job-related stress among them; we also provide insights into the future of such research. In recent years, studies on job-related stress among PSWs have been gaining interest. In particular, stress associated with the repeated revisions of related laws has increased. Subsequently, it was found that occupational stress in PSWs differs qualitatively and quantitatively depending on educational history, years of experience, and service department. However, no scale captures the specific characteristics of job-related stress among PSWs. Moreover, the development of a mental health care program for PSWs seems difficult. To develop a mental health care program that caters specifically to this group, future research should focus on developing a scale that determines the specific characteristics of job-related stress among PSWs, which should be evaluated on the basis of each PSW's educational history, years of experience, and service department.

Challenging Futures Studies To Enhance Participatory River Basin Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Helm, R.

Can the field of futures research help advance participatory management of river basins? This question is supposed to be answered by the present study of which this paper will mainly address the theoretical and conceptual point of view. The 2000 EU Framework directive on water emphasises at least two aspects that will mark the future management of river basins: the need for long-term planning, and a demand for participation. Neither the former nor the latter are new concepts as such, but its combination is in some sense revolutionary. Can long-term plans be made (and implemented) in a participative way, what tools could be useful in this respect, and does this lead to a satisfactory situation in terms of both reaching physical targets and enhancing social-institutional manageability? A possibly rich way to enter the discussion is to challenge futures research as a concept and a practice for enabling multiple stakeholders to design appropriate policies. Futures research is the overall field in which several methods and techniques (like scenario analysis) are mobilised to systematically think through and/or design the future. As such they have proven to be rich exercises to trigger ideas, stimulate debate and design desirable futures (and how to get there). More importantly these exercises have the capability to reconstitute actor relations, and by nature go beyond the institutional boundaries. Arguably the relation between futures research and the planning process is rather distant. Understandably commitments on the direct implementation of the results are hardly ever made, but its impact on changes in the capabilities of the network of actors involved may be large. As a hypothesis we consider that the distant link between an image of the future and the implementation in policy creates sufficient distance for actors to participate (in terms of responsibilities, legal constraints, etc.) and generate potentials, and enough degrees of freedom needed for a successful

Simulating the effects of the southern pine beetle on regional dynamics 60 years into the future

Treesearch

Jennifer K. Costanza; Jiri Hulcr; Frank H. Koch; Todd Earnhardt; Alexa J. McKerrow; Rob R. Dunn; Jaime A. Collazo

2012-01-01

We developed a spatially explicit model that simulated future southern pine beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis, SPB) dynamics and pine forest management for a real landscape over 60 years to inform regional forest management. The SPB has a considerable effect on forest dynamics in the Southeastern United States, especially in loblolly pine (...

A study of current world telecommunications and a projection of the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karageorgis, Costas

1992-09-01

Telecommunications today are important factors in economic and social progress. The last decades of the 20th century and the early years of the 21st have been characterized as the Information Age. Telecommunications, the movement of information through distances, is absolutely critical to the economic and military survival of nations. This thesis is an attempt to predict the future of telecommunications, by studying and analyzing the past and present. First it examines the meaning of telecommunications today and some basics of information transmission. The current status of telecommunications is then presented, by examining the regional profiles as they are divided by the International Telecommunications Union. A number of statistical studies are given, which present a thorough picture of current world telecommunications. In an effort to predict future industry trends, the competition among the three largest telecommunications markets, U.S.A., Japan and the European Community, is also considered by looking at their present telecommunications industry, the efforts they make to improve their technology, and their plans for future investment. Finally, some major technological trends including BISDN, the use of fiber technology in the communications loop, and the use of solitons are examined. The new Metropolitan Area Network Protocol, FDDI-2 is also reviewed.

Thirty Years of Near Room Temperature Magnetic Cooling: Where we are Today and Future Prospects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

K.A. Gschneidner, Jr; V.K. Pecharsky'

2008-05-01

The seminal study by Brown in 1976 showed that it was possible to use the magnetocaloric effect to produce a substantial cooling effect near room temperature. About 15 years later Green et al. built a device which actually cooled a load other than the magnetocaloric material itself and the heat exchange fluid. The major breakthrough, however, occurred in 1997 when the Ames Laboratory/Astronautics proof-of-principle refrigerator showed that magnetic refrigeration was competitive with conventional gas compression cooling. Since then, over 25 magnetic cooling units have been built and tested throughout the world. The current status of near room temperature magnetic coolingmore » is reviewed, including a discussion of the major problems facing commercialization and potential solutions thereof. The future outlook for this revolutionary technology is discussed.« less

What a Difference Ten Years Can Make: Research Possibilities for the Future of Media Literacy Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hobbs, Renee

2011-01-01

This essay reviews the progress achieved in media literacy education over the past decade and emphasizes the importance of assessment, interdisciplinarity in furthering developing the field. The author says that it's nearly impossible to predict what may be possible for the future of the field over the next 10 years. In another publication, she…

Future orientation, school contexts, and problem behaviors: a multilevel study.

PubMed

Chen, Pan; Vazsonyi, Alexander T

2013-01-01

The association between future orientation and problem behaviors has received extensive empirical attention; however, previous work has not considered school contextual influences on this link. Using a sample of N = 9,163 9th to 12th graders (51.0 % females) from N = 85 high schools of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, the present study examined the independent and interactive effects of adolescent future orientation and school contexts (school size, school location, school SES, school future orientation climate) on problem behaviors. Results provided evidence that adolescent future orientation was associated independently and negatively with problem behaviors. In addition, adolescents from large-size schools reported higher levels of problem behaviors than their age mates from small-size schools, controlling for individual-level covariates. Furthermore, an interaction effect between adolescent future orientation and school future orientation climate was found, suggesting influences of school future orientation climate on the link between adolescent future orientation and problem behaviors as well as variations in effects of school future orientation climate across different levels of adolescent future orientation. Specifically, the negative association between adolescent future orientation and problem behaviors was stronger at schools with a more positive climate of future orientation, whereas school future orientation climate had a significant and unexpectedly positive relationship with problem behaviors for adolescents with low levels of future orientation. Findings implicate the importance of comparing how the future orientation-problem behaviors link varies across different ecological contexts and the need to understand influences of school climate on problem behaviors in light of differences in psychological processes among adolescents.

Future Weather Forecasting in the Year 2020-Investing in Technology Today: Improving Weather and Environmental Predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anthes, Richard; Schoeberl, Mark

2000-01-01

Fast-forward twenty years to the nightly simultaneous TV/webcast. Accurate 8-14 day regional forecasts will be available as will be a whole host of linked products including economic impact, travel, energy usage, etc. On-demand, personalized street-level forecasts will be downloaded into your PDA. Your home system will automatically update the products of interest to you (e.g. severe storm forecasts, hurricane predictions, etc). Short and long range climate forecasts will be used by your "Quicken 2020" to make suggest changes in your "futures" investment portfolio. Through a lively and informative multi-media presentation, leading Space-Earth Science Researchers and Technologists will share their vision for the year 2020, offering a possible futuristic forecast enabled through the application of new technologies under development today. Copies of the 'broadcast' will be available on Beta Tape for your own future use. If sufficient interest exists, the program may also be made available for broadcasters wishing to do stand-ups with roll-ins from the San Francisco meeting for their viewers back home.

Five Years into the Past...Five Years into the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tenopir, Carol

1988-01-01

Discusses issues which will have an impact on database searching for the next five years: (1) quality control; (2) more inhouse databases; (3) changes in database visuals; (4) pricing policies; and (5) market changes. A number of favorable and unfavorable changes unlikely to occur within five years are also noted. (MES)

Studies of the Future Aged. An International Symposium.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Friis, Henning; Sheppard, Harold L., Ed.

These six papers report on future-oriented studies of the situation of the elderly. "Changing Elderly in a Changing Society: Danish Elderly in the Next Century" (Henning Friis) reports on research dealing with preferences of the future elderly for their life when they grow older. "Aging Effectively: Meeting the Challenge of an Aging…

The amplifying influence of increased ocean stratification on a future year without a summer.

PubMed

Fasullo, J T; Tomas, R; Stevenson, S; Otto-Bliesner, B; Brady, E; Wahl, E

2017-10-31

In 1816, the coldest summer of the past two centuries was observed over northeastern North America and western Europe. This so-called Year Without a Summer (YWAS) has been widely attributed to the 1815 eruption of Indonesia's Mt. Tambora and was concurrent with agricultural failures and famines worldwide. To understand the potential impacts of a similar future eruption, a thorough physical understanding of the YWAS is crucial. Climate model simulations of both the 1815 Tambora eruption and a hypothetical analogous future eruption are examined, the latter occurring in 2085 assuming a business-as-usual climate scenario. Here, we show that the 1815 eruption drove strong responses in both the ocean and cryosphere that were fundamental to driving the YWAS. Through modulation of ocean stratification and near-surface winds, global warming contributes to an amplified surface climate response. Limitations in using major volcanic eruptions as a constraint on cloud feedbacks are also found.

Effects of implementation of problem-based learning tutorials on fifth-year pharmacy students and future issues.

PubMed

Sato, Atsuko; Morone, Mieko; Azuma, Yutaka

2011-01-01

At Tohoku Pharmaceutical University, problem-based learning (PBL) tutorials were incorporated into "prescription analysis" and "case analysis" for fifth-year students in 2010 with the following objectives: ① application and confirmation of acquired knowledge and skills, and acquisition of ② communication ability, ③ presentation ability, ④ cooperativeness through groupwork, and ⑤ information collecting ability. In the present study, we conducted a questionnaire survey on a total of 158 fifth-year students in order to investigate the educational benefits of PBL tutorials. The results showed that the above five objectives of PBL tutorials were being achieved, and confirmed the educational benefits expected of PBL tutorials. In contrast, it was found to be necessary to improve the contents of scenarios and lectures, time allocation regarding schedules, the learning environment, the role of tutors, and other matters. In order to maximize the educational benefits of PBL tutorials, it will be necessary in the future to continue to conduct surveys on students and make improvements to the curriculum based on survey results.

Fifth-year dental students' visions of leadership-A qualitative study.

PubMed

Taipale, H; Tuononen, T A; Suominen, A L

2018-04-22

Leadership skills are important in dentists' work. Leadership education already in undergraduate curriculum is noteworthy. The aim of this qualitative study was to describe dental students' visions of leadership: how they imagined they end up in leadership position, factors supporting either staying in or leaving the position and their future views. The data were gathered after participants, fifth-year dental students, attended a "Dentist as a Leader" study module. A method of empathy-based stories was utilised. Based on contrasting frame stories, students were divided into two groups and wrote essays about an imagined situation in which they either enjoyed their leadership position ("Stayers") or considered leaving it ("Leavers"). The data were analysed using the content analysis method. The reasons for ending up in a leadership position were similar in the two groups: accidentally drifting into or intentionally heading for it. Factors supporting staying or leaving the leadership position were more diverse and were divided into personal and working community levels. These factors were common and group-specific. Clinical work, personal life and the ability to improve the organisations were common factors. Good working community was a "Stayer"-specific factor. "Leaver"-specific factors included loneliness, stress and lack of public sector resources. Future career plans were similar in both groups emphasising clinical work. After having attended leadership training, dental students were able to describe their future careers and list factors supporting either staying or leaving an imagined leadership position. These factors can be utilised by organisations to develop better working environments for future dentist leaders. By recognising the factors, students themselves are able to plan their future career choices and prepare to become leaders. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Introducing Engineering in Elementary Education: A 5-Year Study of Teachers and Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Diefes-Dux, Heidi A.

2015-01-01

Engineering, when integrated into K-12 education, may offer a number of potential student learning and future success benefits. In a 5-year study, four cohorts of elementary teachers of grades 2 to 4 in a single US school district were provided with teacher professional development with engineering education. Teachers were prepared to teach…

Exaggerated exercise blood pressure response in middle-aged men as a predictor of future blood pressure: a 10-year follow-up.

PubMed

Ito, Katsuyuki; Iwane, Masataka; Miyai, Nobuyuki; Uchikawa, Yukiko; Mugitani, Koichi; Mohara, Osamu; Shiba, Mitsuru; Arita, Mikio

The prognostic value of an exaggerated exercise systolic blood pressure response (EESBPR) remains controversial. This study was designed to assess whether an EESBPR is associated with the predictor of future blood pressure. From an initial population of 1,534 male-subjects with normal BP or no medication who underwent ergometric exercise, 733 subjects (mean age: 41 years old) at baseline to follow-up BP after an average of 10 years were selected. A 12-min exercise tolerance test with three phases of estimated load from predictive maximum oxygen intake was performed at baseline, and exercise BP was measured. Exercise BP response was classified by three group: Low group (G) (exercise SBP < 180 mmHg), Middle G (exercise BP:180-199 mmHg), High G (exercise BP:200 mmHg ≦). BP after 10 years in Low G was 123 ± 12/79 ± 7 mmHg, in Middle G:127 ± 13/81 ± 8 mmHg, in High G :134 ± 15/84 ± 10 mmHg. Compared with in Low G, BP after 10 years in High G significantly increased (p < 0.05). Multiple regression analysis was carried out to clarify the relationship of exercise SBP at baseline to BP after 10 years. In multivariate-adjusted models, the relationship of SBP at follow-up was stronger to exercise SBP (β = 0.271, P < 0.001) than to resting SBP (β = 0.148, P < 0.001). Maximum oxygen intake (β = -0.193, P = 0.003) and resting SBP correlated with SBP after 10 years. In middle-aged men, exercise SBP would be a stronger predictor of future SBP, DBP rather than BP at rest. In optimal of classification of BP (SBP < 120 mmHg), exercise BP response was clearly associated with BP after 10 years.

Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study. Results from Phase 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Phil Patterson, Phil; Singh, Margaret; Plotkin, Steve

2007-03-09

Presentation reporting Phase 1 results, 3/9/2007. Projecting the future role of advanced drivetrains and fuels in the light vehicle market is inherently difficult, given the uncertainty (and likely volatility) of future oil prices, inadequate understanding of likely consumer response to new technologies, the relative infancy of several important new technologies with inevitable future changes in their performance and costs, and the importance — and uncertainty — of future government marketplace interventions (e.g., new regulatory standards or vehicle purchase incentives). The Multi-Path Transportation Futures (MP) Study has attempted to improve our understanding of this future role by examining several scenarios ofmore » vehicle costs, fuel prices, government subsidies, and other key factors. These are projections, not forecasts, in that they try to answer a series of “what if” questions without assigning probabilities to most of the basic assumptions.« less

The Enterprise of the Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murray, Dennis J.

2009-01-01

Last year, IBM Corporation conducted a study to determine what the successful enterprise of the future would look like. Its research was based on surveys of 1,130 CEOs, general managers, and senior public sector and business leaders from around the world. A few college and university presidents also were asked to participate. After 30 years as a…

Studies using single-subject designs in sport psychology: 30 years of research

PubMed Central

Martin, Garry L.; Thompson, Kendra; Regehr, Kaleigh

2004-01-01

A prominent feature of behavior-analytic research has been the use of single-subject designs. We examined sport psychology journals and behavioral journals published during the past 30 years, and located 40 studies using single-subject designs to assess interventions for enhancing the performance of athletes and coaches. In this paper, we summarize that body of research, discuss its strengths and limitations, and identify areas for future research. PMID:22478434

Levels of uric acid may predict the future development of pulmonary hypertension in systemic lupus erythematosus: a seven-year follow-up study.

PubMed

Castillo-Martínez, D; Marroquín-Fabián, E; Lozada-Navarro, A C; Mora-Ramírez, M; Juárez, M; Sánchez-Muñoz, F; Vargas-Barrón, J; Sandoval, J; Amezcua-Guerra, L M

2016-01-01

The objective of this paper is to assess whether pulmonary hypertension (PH) may be detected at one point in time or longitudinally predicted by serum uric acid (sUA) levels in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). We conducted a post-hoc analysis of a long-term followed cohort of Mexican SLE patients. Echocardiography-based definitions of PH by the ESC/ERS/ISHLT and its associations with clinical and laboratory data on enrollment were studied. Especially, the impact that sUA levels at baseline may have on the future development of PH in patients with normal pulmonary artery systolic pressure (PASP) was explored. Out of the 156 SLE patients originally enrolled in the cohort, 44 met the inclusion criteria for the present study and were grouped as having (n =10) or not having (n = 34) PH. At baseline, sUA levels of 5.83 ± 1.79 and 5.82 ± 1.97 mg/dl (p = ns) were found in patients with and without PH, respectively. No association between PASP and other markers was found. In patients with normal PASP, the presence of sUA ≥ 7 mg/dl at baseline predicted future development of PH (relative risk 8.5, 1.0009 to 72; p = 0.04). In SLE, sUA levels at one point in time are useless to detect PH. However, steady hyperuricemia may predict the future development of PH in patients with normal PASP at baseline. © The Author(s) 2015.

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 3. End-Use Electricity Demand

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hostick, Donna; Belzer, David B.; Hadley, Stanton W.

2012-06-15

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a futuremore » through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%–90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Learn more at the RE Futures website. http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re_futures/« less

The Future of African-Americans to the Year 2000. Summary Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Congressional Task Force on the Future of African-Americans, Washington, DC.

This summary report highlights the major features of a comprehensive analysis and forecast of the future of African-Americans. Section 1 discusses the future of the United States. Section 2, "The Past and Present," covers the following topics: (1) "Employment and Economic Development"; (2) "Health"; (3)…

Future-directed thinking in first-episode psychosis.

PubMed

Goodby, Emmeline; MacLeod, Andrew K

2016-06-01

This study employed the Future Thinking Task (MacLeod et al., 2005, Br. J. Clin. Psychol., 44, 495) to investigate whether future-directed thinking in first-episode psychosis is significantly different from that of matched controls, and to identify its correlates in this patient group. Cross-sectional, mixed-model, case-control design. Participants were 30 patients with first-episode psychosis and 27 matched controls. The Future Thinking Task was used to assess future-directed thinking in both groups. Anxiety and depression were also measured as well as self-report measures of hopelessness, suicide ideation and a measure of negative symptoms. Individuals with psychosis were impaired in future-directed thinking in both positive and negative domains, particularly with respect to the coming year. Increased self-reported hopelessness was associated with reduced positive future thinking and increased negative future thinking. Increased positive future thinking was also associated with reduced severity of negative symptoms, whilst negative future thinking was associated with suicide ideation. Individuals with first-episode psychosis show a reduction in positive future thinking in line with that seen in other clinical groups, but this is accompanied by an unexpected reduction in negative future thinking. The findings suggest a general disengagement with the future in this group that may affect recovery and functioning. Individuals with first-episode psychosis may benefit from interventions to help them engage with their future, in particular in the mid-range, up to 1 year. The Future Thinking Task may be a helpful addition to the assessment of suicide risk in those with first-episode psychosis. Decreased positive future thinking was associated with increased severity of negative symptoms, indicating a potential new treatment angle for this resistant aspect of psychosis. The cross-sectional design of this study does not allow for conclusions about the causal relationship

Depression and incident dementia. An 8-year population-based prospective study.

PubMed

Luppa, Melanie; Luck, Tobias; Ritschel, Franziska; Angermeyer, Matthias C; Villringer, Arno; Riedel-Heller, Steffi G

2013-01-01

The aim of the study was to investigate the impact of depression (categorical diagnosis; major depression, MD) and depressive symptoms (dimensional diagnosis and symptom patterns) on incident dementia in the German general population. Within the Leipzig Longitudinal Study of the Aged (LEILA 75+), a representative sample of 1,265 individuals aged 75 years and older were interviewed every 1.5 years over 8 years (mean observation time 4.3 years; mean number of visits 4.2). Cox proportional hazards and binary logistic regressions were used to estimate the effect of baseline depression and depressive symptoms on incident dementia. The incidence of dementia was 48 per 1,000 person-years (95% confidence interval (CI) 45-51). Depressive symptoms (Hazard ratio HR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.05), and in particular mood-related symptoms (HR 1.08, 95% CI 1.03-1.14), showed a significant impact on the incidence of dementia only in univariate analysis, but not after adjustment for cognitive and functional impairment. MD showed only a significant impact on incidence of dementia in Cox proportional hazards regression, but not in binary logistic regression models. The present study using different diagnostic measures of depression on future dementia found no clear significant associations of depression and incident dementia. Further in-depth investigation would help to understand the nature of depression in the context of incident dementia.

Study on the Future Internet System through Analysis of SCADA Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Jae-Gu; Jung, Sungmo; Kim, Seoksoo

Research on the future Internet is focused on establishing standards by solving problems through various projects and accepting various requirements. In this study, the SCADA (Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition) environment, closely related with national infrastructure, is analyzed in order to explore requirements of the future Internet and then those of the SCADA network. Also, this study provides SCADA system environments for the future Internet.

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 3: End-Use Electricity Demand

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hostick, D.; Belzer, D.B.; Hadley, S.W.

2012-06-01

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a futuremore » through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%-90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).« less

Temperament and Parenting during the First Year of Life Predict Future Child Conduct Problems

PubMed Central

Lahey, Benjamin B.; Van Hulle, Carol A.; Keenan, Kate; Rathouz, Paul J.; D’Onofrio, Brian M.; Rodgers, Joseph Lee; Waldman, Irwin D.

2010-01-01

Predictive associations between parenting and temperament during the first year of life and child conduct problems were assessed longitudinally in 1,863 offspring of a representative sample of women. Maternal ratings of infant fussiness, activity level, predictability, and positive affect each independently predicted maternal ratings of conduct problems during ages 4–13 years. Furthermore, a significant interaction indicated that infants who were both low in fussiness and high in predictability were at very low risk for future conduct problems. Fussiness was a stronger predictor of conduct problems in boys whereas fearfulness was a stronger predictor in girls. Conduct problems also were robustly predicted by low levels of early mother-report cognitive stimulation. Interviewer-rated maternal responsiveness was a robust predictor of conduct problems, but only among infants low in fearfulness. Spanking during infancy predicted slightly more severe conduct problems, but the prediction was moderated by infant fussiness and positive affect. Thus, individual differences in risk for mother-rated conduct problems across childhood are already partly evident in maternal ratings of temperament during the first year of life and are predicted by early parenting and parenting-by-temperament interactions. PMID:18568397

Age at migration and future risk of psychotic disorders among immigrants in the Netherlands: a 7-year incidence study.

PubMed

Veling, Wim; Hoek, Hans W; Selten, Jean-Paul; Susser, Ezra

2011-12-01

The purpose of this study was to examine whether the increased risk for developing a psychotic disorder among immigrants is related to their age at the time of migration. In a 7-year first-contact incidence study, immigrants to the Netherlands and Dutch citizens, ages 15-54 years, who made a first contact with a physician for a suspected psychotic disorder were identified. Diagnostic interviews were administered, and DSM-IV diagnoses were determined by consensus between two psychiatrists. A comprehensive municipal registration system provided the denominator, including information on ethnicity and age at the time of migration. Lower age at the time of migration was associated with a higher incidence of psychotic disorders among immigrants. People who migrated between the ages of 0 and 4 years had the most elevated risk for psychotic disorders compared with the risk among Dutch citizens (age- and sex-adjusted incidence rate ratio=2.96, 95% confidence interval [CI]=2.10-4.17), and the risk gradually decreased with older age at migration (adjusted incidence rate ratio for migration at 5-9 years, 10-14 years, and >29 years, respectively: 2.31 [CI=1.61-3.29], 1.51 [CI=1.02-2.25], and 1.00 [CI=0.58-1.72]). The adverse influence of migration on the risk for psychotic disorders is most prominent in early life, suggesting that this is an important period in the etiology of the illness.

A future without health? Health dimension in global scenario studies.

PubMed Central

Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud

2003-01-01

This paper reviews the health dimension and sociocultural, economic, and ecological determinants of health in existing global scenario studies. Not even half of the 31 scenarios reviewed gave a good description of future health developments and the different scenario studies did not handle health in a consistent way. Most of the global driving forces of health are addressed adequately in the selected scenarios, however, and it therefore would have been possible to describe the future developments in health as an outcome of these multiple driving forces. To provide examples on how future health can be incorporated in existing scenarios, we linked the sociocultural, economic, and environmental developments described in three sets of scenarios (special report on emission scenarios (SRES), global environmental outlook-3 (GEO3), and world water scenarios (WWS)) to three potential, but imaginary, health futures ("age of emerging infectious diseases", "age of medical technology", and "age of sustained health"). This paper provides useful insights into how to deal with future health in scenarios and shows that a comprehensive picture of future health evolves when all important driving forces and pressures are taken into account. PMID:14997242

Predictors of child-to-parent aggression: A 3-year longitudinal study.

PubMed

Calvete, Esther; Orue, Izaskun; Gamez-Guadix, Manuel; Bushman, Brad J

2015-05-01

Although we rarely hear about it, children sometimes aggress against their parents. This is a difficult topic to study because abused parents and abusive children are both reluctant to admit the occurrence of child-to-parent aggression. There are very few research studies on this topic, and even fewer theoretical explanations of why it occurs. We predicted that exposure to violence in the home (e.g., parents aggressing against each other) and ineffective parenting (i.e., parenting that is overly permissive or lacks warmth) influences cognitive schemas of how children perceive themselves and the world around them (i.e., whether aggression is normal, whether they develop grandiose self-views, and whether they feel disconnected and rejected), which, in turn, predicts child-to-parent aggression. In a 3-year longitudinal study of 591 adolescents and their parents, we found that exposure to violence in Year 1 predicted child-to-parent aggression in Year 3. In addition, parenting characterized by lack of warmth in Year 1 was related to narcissistic and entitled self-views and disconnection and rejection schemas in Year 2, which, in turn, predicted child-to-mother and child-to-father aggression in Year 3. Gender comparisons indicated that narcissism predicted child-to-parent aggression only in boys and that exposure to violence was a stronger predictor of child-to-father violence in boys. This longitudinal study increases our understanding of the understudied but important topic of child-to-parent aggression, and will hopefully stimulate future research. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Proteomics Standards Initiative: Fifteen Years of Progress and Future Work

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

The Proteomics Standards Initiative (PSI) of the Human Proteome Organization (HUPO) has now been developing and promoting open community standards and software tools in the field of proteomics for 15 years. Under the guidance of the chair, cochairs, and other leadership positions, the PSI working groups are tasked with the development and maintenance of community standards via special workshops and ongoing work. Among the existing ratified standards, the PSI working groups continue to update PSI-MI XML, MITAB, mzML, mzIdentML, mzQuantML, mzTab, and the MIAPE (Minimum Information About a Proteomics Experiment) guidelines with the advance of new technologies and techniques. Furthermore, new standards are currently either in the final stages of completion (proBed and proBAM for proteogenomics results as well as PEFF) or in early stages of design (a spectral library standard format, a universal spectrum identifier, the qcML quality control format, and the Protein Expression Interface (PROXI) web services Application Programming Interface). In this work we review the current status of all of these aspects of the PSI, describe synergies with other efforts such as the ProteomeXchange Consortium, the Human Proteome Project, and the metabolomics community, and provide a look at future directions of the PSI. PMID:28849660

Proteomics Standards Initiative: Fifteen Years of Progress and Future Work.

PubMed

Deutsch, Eric W; Orchard, Sandra; Binz, Pierre-Alain; Bittremieux, Wout; Eisenacher, Martin; Hermjakob, Henning; Kawano, Shin; Lam, Henry; Mayer, Gerhard; Menschaert, Gerben; Perez-Riverol, Yasset; Salek, Reza M; Tabb, David L; Tenzer, Stefan; Vizcaíno, Juan Antonio; Walzer, Mathias; Jones, Andrew R

2017-12-01

The Proteomics Standards Initiative (PSI) of the Human Proteome Organization (HUPO) has now been developing and promoting open community standards and software tools in the field of proteomics for 15 years. Under the guidance of the chair, cochairs, and other leadership positions, the PSI working groups are tasked with the development and maintenance of community standards via special workshops and ongoing work. Among the existing ratified standards, the PSI working groups continue to update PSI-MI XML, MITAB, mzML, mzIdentML, mzQuantML, mzTab, and the MIAPE (Minimum Information About a Proteomics Experiment) guidelines with the advance of new technologies and techniques. Furthermore, new standards are currently either in the final stages of completion (proBed and proBAM for proteogenomics results as well as PEFF) or in early stages of design (a spectral library standard format, a universal spectrum identifier, the qcML quality control format, and the Protein Expression Interface (PROXI) web services Application Programming Interface). In this work we review the current status of all of these aspects of the PSI, describe synergies with other efforts such as the ProteomeXchange Consortium, the Human Proteome Project, and the metabolomics community, and provide a look at future directions of the PSI.

Episodic Memory and Future Thinking During Early Childhood: Linking the Past and Future

PubMed Central

Cuevas, Kimberly; Rajan, Vinaya; Morasch, Katherine C.; Bell, Martha Ann

2015-01-01

Despite extensive examination of episodic memory and future thinking development, little is known about the concurrent emergence of these capacities during early childhood. In Experiment 1, 3-year-olds participated in an episodic memory hiding task [“what, when, where” (WWW) components] with an episodic future thinking component. In Experiment 2, a group of 4-year-olds (including children from Experiment 1) participated in the same task (different objects and locations), providing the first longitudinal investigation of episodic memory and future thinking. Although children exhibited age-related improvements in recall, recognition, and binding of the WWW episodic memory components, there were no age-related changes in episodic future thinking. At both ages, WWW episodic memory performance was higher than future thinking performance, and episodic future thinking and WWW memory components were unrelated. These findings suggest that the WWW components of episodic memory are potentially less fragile than the future components when assessed in a cognitively demanding task. PMID:25864990

Episodic memory and future thinking during early childhood: Linking the past and future.

PubMed

Cuevas, Kimberly; Rajan, Vinaya; Morasch, Katherine C; Bell, Martha Ann

2015-07-01

Despite extensive examination of episodic memory and future thinking development, little is known about the concurrent emergence of these capacities during early childhood. In Experiment 1, 3-year-olds participated in an episodic memory hiding task ("what, when, where" [WWW] components) with an episodic future thinking component. In Experiment 2, a group of 4-year-olds (including children from Experiment 1) participated in the same task (different objects and locations), providing the first longitudinal investigation of episodic memory and future thinking. Although children exhibited age-related improvements in recall, recognition, and binding of the WWW episodic memory components, there were no age-related changes in episodic future thinking. At both ages, WWW episodic memory performance was higher than future thinking performance, and episodic future thinking and WWW memory components were unrelated. These findings suggest that the WWW components of episodic memory are potentially less fragile than the future components when assessed in a cognitively demanding task. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Fundamental biomechanics of the spine--What we have learned in the past 25 years and future directions.

PubMed

Oxland, Thomas R

2016-04-11

Since the publication of the 2nd edition of White and Panjabi׳s textbook, Clinical Biomechanics of the Spine in 1990, there has been considerable research on the biomechanics of the spine. The focus of this manuscript will be to review what we have learned in regards to the fundamentals of spine biomechanics. Topics addressed include the whole spine, the functional spinal unit, and the individual components of the spine (e.g. vertebra, intervertebral disc, spinal ligaments). In these broad categories, our understanding in 1990 is reviewed and the important knowledge or understanding gained through the subsequent 25 years of research is highlighted. Areas where our knowledge is lacking helps to identify promising topics for future research. In this manuscript, as in the White and Panjabi textbook, the emphasis is on experimental research using human material, either in vivo or in vitro. The insights gained from mathematical models and animal experimentation are included where other data are not available. This review is intended to celebrate the substantial gains that have been made in the field over these past 25 years and also to identify future research directions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Future landfill emissions and the effect of final cover installation--a case study.

PubMed

Laner, David; Fellner, Johann; Brunner, Paul H

2011-07-01

Municipal solid waste (MSW) landfills are potential long-term sources of emissions. Hence, they need to be managed after closure until they do not pose a threat to humans or the environment. The case study on the Breitenau MSW landfill was performed to evaluate future emission levels for this site and to illustrate the effect of final cover installation with respect to long-term environmental risks. The methodology was based on a comprehensive assessment of the state of the landfill and included analysis of monitoring data, investigations of landfilled waste, and an evaluation of containment systems. A model to estimate future emission levels was established and site-specific predictions of leachate emissions were presented based on scenario analysis. The results are used to evaluate the future pollution potential of the landfill and to compare different aftercare concepts in view of long-term emissions. As some leachable substances became available for water flow during cover construction due to a change in the water flow pattern of the waste, a substantial increase in leachate concentrations could be observed at the site (e.g. concentrations of chloride increased from 200 to 800 mg/l and of ammonia-nitrogen from 140 to about 500 mg/l). A period of intensive flushing before the final cover installation could have reduced the amount of leachable substances within the landfill body and rapidly decreased the leachate concentrations to 11 mg Cl/l and 79 mg NH(4)-N/l within 50 years. Contrarily, the minimization of water infiltration is associated with leachate concentrations in a high range for centuries (above 400 mg Cl/l and 200 mg NH(4)-N/l) with low concomitant annual emission loads (below 12 kg/year of Cl or 9 kg/year of NH(4)-N, respectively). However, an expected gradual decrease of barrier efficiency over time would be associated with higher emission loads of 50 kg of chloride and 30 kg of ammonia-nitrogen at the maximum, but a faster decrease of leachate

The end is (not) near: Aging, essentialism, and future time perspective.

PubMed

Weiss, David; Job, Veronika; Mathias, Maya; Grah, Stephanie; Freund, Alexandra M

2016-06-01

Beliefs about aging influence how we interpret and respond to changes within and around us. Essentialist beliefs about aging are defined as views that link chronological age with inherent and immutable properties underlying aging-related changes. These beliefs may influence the experience of aging-related changes and shape people's outlook of the future. We hypothesized that people who endorse essentialist beliefs about aging report a more limited future time perspective. Two studies provided correlational (Study 1, N = 250; 18-77 years) and experimental (Study 2, N = 103; 20-77 years) evidence that essentialist beliefs about aging affect people's future time perspective. In addition, Study 2 and Study 3 (N = 174; 34-67 years) tested the underlying mechanism and provided evidence that perception of aging-related threat explains the effect of essentialist beliefs on a reduced future time perspective. These findings highlight the fundamental role of essentialist beliefs about aging for the perception of time horizons in the context of aging. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Study of Air Pollution from Space Using TOMS: Challenges and Promises for Future Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bhartia, Pawan K.

2002-01-01

A series of TOMS instruments built by NASA has flown on US, Russian, and Japanese satellites in the last 24 years. These instruments are well known for producing spectacular maps of the ozone hole that forms over Antarctica each spring. However, it is less well known that these instruments also provided first evidence that space-based measurements in UV of sufficiently high precision and accuracy can provide valuable information to study global air quality. We will use the TOMS experience to highlight the promises and challenges of future space-based missions designed specifically for air quality studies.

Sleep disturbances predict future sickness absence among individuals with lower back or neck-shoulder pain: a 5-year prospective study.

PubMed

Aili, Katarina; Nyman, Teresia; Hillert, Lena; Svartengren, Magnus

2015-05-01

Musculoskeletal pain is one of the most common causes of sickness absence. Sleep disturbances are often co-occurring with pain, but the relationship between sleep and pain is complex. Little is known about the importance of self-reported sleep, when predicting sickness absence among persons with musculoskeletal pain. This study aims to study the association between self-reported sleep quality and sickness absence 5 years later, among individuals stratified by presence of lower back pain (LBP) and neck and shoulder pain (NSP). The cohort (n = 2286) in this 5-year prospective study (using data from the MUSIC-Norrtälje study) was stratified by self-reported pain into three groups: no LBP or NSP, solely LBP or NSP, and concurrent LBP and NSP. Odds ratios (ORs) for the effect of self-reported sleep disturbances at baseline on sickness absence (> 14 consecutive days), 5 years later, were calculated. Within all three pain strata, individuals reporting the most sleep problems showed a significantly higher OR for all-cause sickness absence, 5 years later. The group with the most pronounced sleep problems within the concurrent LBP and NSP stratum had a significantly higher OR (OR 2.00; CI 1.09-3.67) also for long-term sickness absence (> 90 days) 5 years later, compared to the group with the best sleep. CONCLUSIONS Sleep disturbances predict sickness absence among individuals regardless of co-existing features of LBP and/or NSP. The clinical evaluation of patients should take possible sleep disturbances into account in the planning of treatments. © 2015 the Nordic Societies of Public Health.

The Future of African-Americans to the Year 2000.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Congressional Task Force on the Future of African-Americans, Washington, DC.

This study considers the present condition of African-Americans and makes projections for the year 2000, emphasizing the relative conditions of European-Americans and African-Americans, and considering the public and private policy implications of these projections. Section 1, an overview of the subject, covers the following topics: (1) "The…

Situational analysis and future directions of AYUSH: An assessment through 5-year plans of India

PubMed Central

Samal, Janmejaya

2015-01-01

AYUSH is an acronym for Ayurveda, Yoga and Naturopathy, Unani, Siddha, and Homeopathy. These are the six indigenous systems of medicine practiced in India. A department called Department of Indian System of medicine was created in March 1995 and renamed to AYUSH in November 2003 with a focus to provide increased attention for the development of these systems. Very recently, in 2014, a separate ministry was created under the union Government of India, which is headed by a minister of state. Planning regarding these systems of medicine was a part of 5-year planning process since 1951. Since then many developments have happened in this sector albeit the system was struggling with a great degree of uncertainty at the time of 1st5-year plan. A progressive path of development could be observed since the first to the 12th5-year plan. It was up to the 7thplan the growth was little sluggish and from 8thplan onward the growth took its pace and several innovative development processes could be observed thereafter. The system is gradually progressing ahead with a vision to be a globally accepted system, as envisaged in 11th5-year plan. Currently, AYUSH system is a part of mainstream health system implemented under National Rural Health Mission (NRHM). NRHM came into play in 2005 but implemented at ground level in 2006 and introduced the scheme of “Mainstreaming of AYUSH and revitalization of local health traditions” to strengthen public health services. This scheme is currently in operation in its second phase, since 1stApril 2012, with the 12th5-year plan. The scheme was primarily brought in to operation with three important objectives; choice of treatment system to the patients, strengthen facility functionally and strengthen the implementation of national health programmes, however, in some places it seems to be a forced medical pluralism owing to a top-down approach by the union government without considerable involvement of the concerned community. In this study, the

Situational analysis and future directions of AYUSH: An assessment through 5-year plans of India.

PubMed

Samal, Janmejaya

2015-01-01

study, the 5-year planning documents have been reviewed, from the 1(st)plan to 12(th)plan, to enable reflection and throw some light into the future directions of AYUSH system.

Future volcanic lake research: revealing secrets from poorly studied lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rouwet, D.; Tassi, F.; Mora-Amador, R. A.

2012-04-01

Volcanic lake research boosted after the 1986 Lake Nyos lethal gas burst, a limnic rather than volcanic event. This led to the formation of the IAVCEI-Commission on Volcanic Lakes, which grew out into a multi-disciplinary scientific community since the 1990's. At Lake Nyos, a degassing pipe is functional since 2001, and two additional pipes were added in 2011, aimed to prevent further limnic eruption events. There are between 150 and 200 volcanic lakes on Earth. Some acidic crater lakes topping active magmatic-hydrothermal systems are monitored continuously or discontinuously. Such detailed studies have shown their usefulness in volcanic surveillance (e.g. Ruapehu, Yugama-Kusatsu-Shiran, Poás). Others are "Nyos-type" lakes, with possible gas accumulation in bottom waters and thus potentially hazardous. "Nyos-type" lakes tend to remain stably stratified in tropical and sub-tropical climates (meromictic), leading to long-term gas build-up and thus higher potential risk. In temperate climates, such lakes tend to turn over in winter (monomictic), and thus liberating its gas charge yearly. We line out research strategies for the different types of lakes. We believe a complementary, multi-disciplinary approach (geochemistry, geophysics, limnology, biology, statistics, etc.) will lead to new insights and ideas, which can be the base for future following-up and monitoring. After 25 years of pioneering studies on rather few lakes, the scientific community should be challenged to study the many poorly studied volcanic lakes, in order to better constrain the related hazard, based on probabilistic approaches.

Longitudinal histories as predictors of future diagnoses of domestic abuse: modelling study

PubMed Central

Kohane, Isaac S; Mandl, Kenneth D

2009-01-01

Objective To determine whether longitudinal data in patients’ historical records, commonly available in electronic health record systems, can be used to predict a patient’s future risk of receiving a diagnosis of domestic abuse. Design Bayesian models, known as intelligent histories, used to predict a patient’s risk of receiving a future diagnosis of abuse, based on the patient’s diagnostic history. Retrospective evaluation of the model’s predictions using an independent testing set. Setting A state-wide claims database covering six years of inpatient admissions to hospital, admissions for observation, and encounters in emergency departments. Population All patients aged over 18 who had at least four years between their earliest and latest visits recorded in the database (561 216 patients). Main outcome measures Timeliness of detection, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values, and area under the ROC curve. Results 1.04% (5829) of the patients met the narrow case definition for abuse, while 3.44% (19 303) met the broader case definition for abuse. The model achieved sensitive, specific (area under the ROC curve of 0.88), and early (10-30 months in advance, on average) prediction of patients’ future risk of receiving a diagnosis of abuse. Analysis of model parameters showed important differences between sexes in the risks associated with certain diagnoses. Conclusions Commonly available longitudinal diagnostic data can be useful for predicting a patient’s future risk of receiving a diagnosis of abuse. This modelling approach could serve as the basis for an early warning system to help doctors identify high risk patients for further screening. PMID:19789406

Reasons for non-vaccination against HPV and future vaccination intentions among 19-26 year-old women.

PubMed

Zimet, Gregory D; Weiss, Thomas W; Rosenthal, Susan L; Good, Margaret B; Vichnin, Michelle D

2010-09-01

Despite CDC recommendations regarding universal catch-up vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV), only about ten percent of young adult women in the United States have been vaccinated. The purpose of this study was to better understand reasons for non-vaccination among insured 19-26 year-old women and to evaluate future vaccination intentions. We used an administrative claims database from a large US managed care plan to identify women aged 19-26 for receipt of a mailed survey. From a sample of 1,375 women with no evidence of HPV vaccination from June 1, 2006 through April 30, 2007, 222 completed surveys were received, of which 185 were eligible for this analysis. The main outcome measures were unvaccinated women's attitudes and vaccine awareness, likelihood of future action regarding the vaccine, and reasons for inaction. Among the 185 non-vaccinees, 25.4% were married, 83.2% were white, and 89.2% had a college or higher level education. The vaccine was described as very important by 32.4% of subjects, and 30.1% had discussed the vaccine with a doctor and received a doctor's recommendation. Half or fewer of respondents were "very" or "extremely" likely to discuss the vaccine with their doctor (50.0%), do additional research on the vaccine (42.6%), ask a doctor to get the vaccine (37.5%), or make an appointment to get the vaccine (27.8%), while 48.0% were "somewhat", "very", or "extremely" likely to do nothing to get the vaccine. Among the latter, reasons for taking no action included being married or in a monogamous relationship (54.9%), belief that the vaccine is too new (35.4%), not having enough information about the vaccine (31.7%), concerns about side effects (24.4%), and uncertainty about insurance coverage (24.4%). Educational interventions may be needed to enhance HPV vaccination rates among 19-26 year-old women, particularly regarding information about vaccine safety, vaccine efficacy, insurance coverage, and the value of vaccination to women in

Reasons for non-vaccination against HPV and future vaccination intentions among 19-26 year-old women

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Despite CDC recommendations regarding universal catch-up vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV), only about ten percent of young adult women in the United States have been vaccinated. The purpose of this study was to better understand reasons for non-vaccination among insured 19-26 year-old women and to evaluate future vaccination intentions. Methods We used an administrative claims database from a large US managed care plan to identify women aged 19-26 for receipt of a mailed survey. From a sample of 1,375 women with no evidence of HPV vaccination from June 1, 2006 through April 30, 2007, 222 completed surveys were received, of which 185 were eligible for this analysis. The main outcome measures were unvaccinated women's attitudes and vaccine awareness, likelihood of future action regarding the vaccine, and reasons for inaction. Results Among the 185 non-vaccinees, 25.4% were married, 83.2% were white, and 89.2% had a college or higher level education. The vaccine was described as very important by 32.4% of subjects, and 30.1% had discussed the vaccine with a doctor and received a doctor's recommendation. Half or fewer of respondents were "very" or "extremely" likely to discuss the vaccine with their doctor (50.0%), do additional research on the vaccine (42.6%), ask a doctor to get the vaccine (37.5%), or make an appointment to get the vaccine (27.8%), while 48.0% were "somewhat", "very", or "extremely" likely to do nothing to get the vaccine. Among the latter, reasons for taking no action included being married or in a monogamous relationship (54.9%), belief that the vaccine is too new (35.4%), not having enough information about the vaccine (31.7%), concerns about side effects (24.4%), and uncertainty about insurance coverage (24.4%). Conclusions Educational interventions may be needed to enhance HPV vaccination rates among 19-26 year-old women, particularly regarding information about vaccine safety, vaccine efficacy, insurance coverage, and

My future self: Young children’s ability to anticipate and explain future states

PubMed Central

Atance, Cristina M.; Meltzoff, Andrew N.

2013-01-01

Two experiments examine preschool-aged children’s ability to anticipate physiological states of the self. One hundred and eight 3-, 4-, and 5-year-olds were presented with stories and pictorial scenes designed to evoke thought about future states such as thirst, cold, and hunger. They were asked to imagine themselves in these scenarios and to choose one item from a set of three that they would need. Only one of the items could be used to address the future state. In both experiments, developmental differences were obtained for correct item choices and types of verbal explanations. In Experiment 2, the performance of the 3- and 4-year-olds was negatively affected by introducing items that were semantically associated with the scenarios but did not address the future state, whereas the 5-year-olds’ performance was not. Results are discussed with respect to children’s understanding of the future, theory of mind, and inhibitory control skills. PMID:23956493

Reflections on the Last 25 Years of the American Otological Society and Thoughts on its Future.

PubMed

Welling, D Bradley; Jackler, Robert K

2018-04-01

To review contributions of the American Otological Society (AOS) over the most recent quarter century (1993-2018) and to comment on possible future evolution of the field during the quarter century to come. Retrospective review of selected topics from the AOS transactions, distinguished lectureships over the past 25 years, and selective reflection by the authors. Speculation on potential advances of the next quarter century derived from emerging topics in the current literature and foreseeable trends in science and technology are also proffered for consideration (and possible future ridicule). Integration of multiple disciplines including bioengineering, medical imaging, genetics, molecular biology, physics, and evidence based medicine have substantially benefitted the practice of otology over the past quarter century. The impact of the contributions of members of the AOS in these developments cannot be over estimated. Further scientific advancement will certainly accelerate change in the practice of otologic surgery and medicine over the coming decade in ways that will be marvelous to behold.

The future of psychiatry.

PubMed

Kecmanovic, Dusan

2012-12-01

The objective of this paper is to forecast the future of psychiatry in the first world in the next 20 years. There are no indications that psychiatry might significantly change in the near future. Yet two factors affecting today's psychiatry will most likely become more pronounced in years to come, first, the shrinking of psychiatrists' domain, and second, the declining interest in psychiatry among medical graduates.

The Effect of a Learner Autonomy Training on the Study Habits of the First-Year ELT Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Merç, Ali

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study is to investigate the possible effects of a learner autonomy training on the study habits of first-year university students as future EFL teachers. To this end, a questionnaire was used as the research instrument to elicit the study habits of the students. The questionnaire was administered to 122 students enrolled in a…

Is osteoporosis a predictor for future sarcopenia or vice versa? Four-year observations between the second and third ROAD study surveys.

PubMed

Yoshimura, N; Muraki, S; Oka, H; Iidaka, T; Kodama, R; Kawaguchi, H; Nakamura, K; Tanaka, S; Akune, T

2017-01-01

In a 4-year follow-up study that enrolled 1099 subjects aged ≥60 years, sarcopenia prevalence was estimated at 8.2%. Moreover, the presence of osteoporosis was significantly associated with short-term sarcopenia occurrence, but the reciprocal relationship was not observed, suggesting that osteoporosis would increase the risk of osteoporotic fracture and sarcopenia occurrence. The present 4-year follow-up study was performed to clarify the prevalence, incidence, and relationships between sarcopenia (SP) and osteoporosis (OP) in older Japanese men and women. We enrolled 1099 participants (aged, ≥60 years; 377 men) from the second survey of the Research on Osteoarthritis/Osteoporosis against Disability (ROAD) study (2008-2010) and followed them up for 4 years. Handgrip strength, gait speed, skeletal muscle mass, and bone mineral density were assessed. SP was defined according to the Asian Working Group for Sarcopenia. OP was defined based on the World Health Organization criteria. SP prevalence was 8.2% (men, 8.5%; women, 8.0%) in the second survey. In those with SP, 57.8% (21.9%; 77.6%) had OP at the lumbar spine L2-4 and/or femoral neck. SP cumulative incidence was 2.0%/year (2.2%/year; 1.9%/year). Multivariate regression analysis revealed that OP was significantly associated with SP occurrence within 4 years (odds ratio, 2.99; 95% confidence interval, 1.46-6.12; p < 0.01), but the reciprocal relationship was not significantly observed (2.11; 0.59-7.59; p = 0.25). OP might raise the short-term risk of SP incidence. Therefore, OP would not only increase the risk for osteoporotic fracture but may also increase the risk for SP occurrence.

Professional identity, career choices, and working conditions of future and young dentists in Germany - study design and methods of a nationwide comprehensive survey.

PubMed

Kettler, Nele; Frenzel Baudisch, Nicolas; Micheelis, Wolfgang; Klingenberger, David; Jordan, A Rainer

2017-10-18

Little is known regarding young and future dentists' career choices, professional identity, and working conditions in Germany. While the dental healthcare environment and demands in treatment are changing, it remains unclear what job perceptions young dentists have developed at the beginning of their work life and if and how these perceptions change during the subsequent years. The aim of this study was to survey future and young dentists regarding their professional identity, planned career paths, and working conditions and strains to understand career decisions and choices and enable policy makers to include future dentists' views and expectations in their decisions. This study is a longitudinal nationwide survey over a time span of 4 years of dental students and young dentists in Germany and is comprised of three waves. The first wave focuses on dental students in their final year before the state examination and is composed of a qualitative pre-study in the form of focus groups and a quantitative main survey in the form of a questionnaire. The end points were established to analyse (1) the professional identity of the young future dentists; (2) their career paths, preparation for a career, and basic career conditions; and (3) perceived conditions and strains. The aim of the overall survey was to depict the development of these three aspects during the first years of work life. All of the questions were evaluated with a descriptive univariate analysis. The analysed subgroups were grouped according to gender, target working condition (employed/self-employed), and primary socialisation (parents dentists/parents not dentists). To our knowledge, this is the only study which focuses on career choices, professional identity, and working conditions of future and young dentists in Germany. The longitudinal observation provides information that is essential for professional and purposive dental health care planning, and to meet the oral health demands and needs of the

Aviation Safety Concerns for the Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Brian E.; Roelen, Alfred L. C.; den Hertog, Rudi

2016-01-01

The Future Aviation Safety Team (FAST) is a multidisciplinary international group of aviation professionals that was established to identify possible future aviation safety hazards. The principle was adopted that future hazards are undesirable consequences of changes, and a primary activity of FAST became identification and prioritization of possible future changes affecting aviation. Since 2004, FAST has been maintaining a catalogue of "Areas of Change" (AoC) that could potentially influence aviation safety. The horizon for such changes is between 5 to 20 years. In this context, changes must be understood as broadly as possible. An AoC is a description of the change, not an identification of the hazards that result from the change. An ex-post analysis of the AoCs identified in 2004 demonstrates that changes catalogued many years previous were directly implicated in the majority of fatal aviation accidents over the past ten years. This paper presents an overview of the current content of the AoC catalogue and a subsequent discussion of aviation safety concerns related to these possible changes. Interactions among these future changes may weaken critical functions that must be maintained to ensure safe operations. Safety assessments that do not appreciate or reflect the consequences of significant interaction complexity will not be fully informative and can lead to inappropriate trade-offs and increases in other risks. The FAST strongly encourages a system-wide approach to safety risk assessment across the global aviation system, not just within the domain for which future technologies or operational concepts are being considered. The FAST advocates the use of the "Areas of Change" concept, considering that several possible future phenomena may interact with a technology or operational concept under study producing unanticipated hazards.

Chile confronts its environmental health future after 25 years of accelerated growth

PubMed Central

Pino, Paulina; Iglesias, Verónica; Garreaud, René; Cortés, Sandra; Canals, Mauricio; Folch, Walter; Burgos, Soledad; Levy, Karen; Naeher, Luke P.; Steenland, Kyle

2015-01-01

Background Chile has recently been reclassified by the World Bank from an upper middle income country to a higher income country. There has been great progress in the last 20–30 years in relation to air and water pollution in Chile. Yet after 25 years of unrestrained growth there remain clear challenges posed by air and water, as well as climate change. Methods: In late 2013 a three-day workshop on environmental health was held in Santiago, bringing together researchers and government policy makers. As a follow-up to that workshop, here we review the progress made in environmental health in the past 20–30 years, and discuss the challenges of the future. We focus on air and water pollution, and climate change, which we believe are among the most important areas of environmental health in Chile. Results Air pollution in some cities remains among the highest in the continent. Potable water is generally available, but weak state supervision has led to serious outbreaks of infectious disease and ongoing issues with arsenic exposure in some regions. Climate change modeling in Chile is quite sophisticated, and a number of the impacts of climate change can be reasonably predicted in terms of which areas of the country are most likely to be affected by increased temperature and decreased availability of water, as well as expansion of vector territory. Some health effects, including change vector-borne diseases and excess heat mortality, can be predicted. However, there has yet to be an integration of such research with government planning. Conclusion While great progress has been made, currently there are a number of problems. We suspect that the Chilean experience in environmental health may be of some use for other Latin American countries with rapid economic development. PMID:26615070

Motivated for Leisure in the Future: A Person-Centred Longitudinal Study in the Lowest Level of Secondary Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van der Veen, Ineke; Peetsma, Thea

2011-01-01

Long-term future time perspective on leisure has been found to relate negatively to school effort. This was studied further by recognizing types of students based on developments in long-term leisure perspectives and comparing their development in motivation and academic achievement. Around 1200 12-13 year old students attending the lowest level…

Monitoring Million Trees LA: Tree performance during the early years and future benefits

Treesearch

E. Gregory McPherson

2014-01-01

Million Trees LA (MTLA) is one of several large-scale mayoral tree planting initiatives striving to create more livable cities through urban forestry. This study combined field sampling of tree survival and growth with numerical modeling of future benefits to assess performance of MTLA plantings. From 2006 to 2010 MTLA planted a diverse mix of 91,786 trees....

Implications of demographics on future blood supply: a population-based cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Greinacher, Andreas; Fendrich, Konstanze; Brzenska, Ralf; Kiefel, Volker; Hoffmann, Wolfgang

2011-04-01

Data on blood recipients are sparse and unconnected to data on blood donors. The objective was to analyze the impact of the demographic change on future blood demand and supply in a German federal state. A population-based cross-sectional study was conducted. For all in-hospital transfused red blood cells (RBCs; n = 95,477), in the German federal state Mecklenburg-Pomerania in 2005, characteristics of the patient and the blood donor (118,406 blood donations) were obtained. Population data were used to predict blood demand and supply until 2020. By 2020 the population increase of those aged 65 years or more (+26.4%) in Mecklenburg-Pomerania will be paralleled by a decrease of the potential donor population (18-68 years; -16.1%). Assuming stable rates per age group until 2020, the demand for in-hospital blood transfusions will increase by approximately 25% (24,000 RBC units) while blood donations will decrease by approximately 27% (32,000 RBC units). The resulting, predicted shortfall is 47% of demand for in-hospital patients (56,000 RBC units). Validation using historical data (1997-2007) showed that the model predicted the RBC demand with a deviation of only 1.2%. Demographic changes are particularly pronounced in former East Germany, but by 2030 most European countries will face a similar situation. The decrease of younger age groups requires an increase of blood donation rates and interdisciplinary approaches to reduce the need for transfusion to maintain sufficient blood supply. Demography is a major determinant of future transfusion demand. All efforts should be made by Western societies to systematically obtain data on blood donors and recipients to develop strategies to meet future blood demand. © 2010 American Association of Blood Banks.

Future Directions for Business Education: A Delphi Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kesten, Cyril A.; Lambrecht, Judith J.

2010-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to synthesize perceptions from the field about current issues and to propose future directions for the field of business education. Method: A modified three-stage Delphi study was carried out with business educators who attended national conferences and/or belonged to national professional organizations.…

Aviation Futures to the Year 2000.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Urban Systems Research and Engineering, Inc., Cambridge, MA.

This document describes five alternative scenarios which present various conditions that may exist in the United States from now to the year 2000, and which would be important in shaping demand for air transportation. Each scenario describes the potential evolution of various socioeconomic conditions, along with a projection of the amount and type…

Developing a Consensus-Driven, Core Competency Model to Shape Future Audio Engineering Technology Curriculum: A Web-Based Modified Delphi Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tough, David T.

2009-01-01

The purpose of this online study was to create a ranking of essential core competencies and technologies required by AET (audio engineering technology) programs 10 years in the future. The study was designed to facilitate curriculum development and improvement in the rapidly expanding number of small to medium sized audio engineering technology…

Asteroid Studies: A 35-Year Forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivkin, A. S.; Denevi, B. W.; Klima, R. L.; Ernst, C. M.; Chabot, N. L.; Barnouin, O. S.; Cohen, B. A.

2017-02-01

We are in an active time for asteroid studies, which fall at the intersection of science, planetary defense, human exploration, and in situ resource utilization. We look forward and extrapolate what the future may hold for asteroid science.

Handbook for Conducting Future Studies in Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phi Delta Kappa, Bloomington, IN.

This handbook is designed to aid school administrators, policy-makers, and teachers in bringing a "futures orientation" to their schools. The first part of the book describes a "futuring process" developed as a tool for examining alternative future probabilities. It consists of a series of diverging and converging techniques that alternately…

The association between urinary calculi and increased risk of future cardiovascular events: A nationwide population-based study.

PubMed

Hsu, Chien-Yi; Chen, Yung-Tai; Huang, Po-Hsun; Leu, Hsin-Bang; Su, Yu-Wen; Chiang, Chia-Hung; Chen, Jaw-Wen; Chen, Tzeng-Ji; Lin, Shing-Jong; Chan, Wan-Leong

2016-05-01

Although accumulating evidence suggests urinary calculi may be associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), the number of longitudinal studies linking urolithiasis to CVD events is limited. We investigated the association between urinary calculi and the risk of development of myocardial infarction (MI) and/or stroke in a nationwide, population-based cohort database in Taiwan. Our analyses were conducted using information from a random sample of 1 million people enrolled in the nationally representative Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. A total of 81,546 subjects aged 18 years or above, including 40,773 subjects diagnosed with urinary calculi during the study period and a propensity score-matched 40,773 subjects without urinary calculi were enrolled in our study. During a 10-year follow-up period, 501 MI events and 1295 stroke events were identified. By comparison, the urinary calculi group had a higher incidence rate of MI occurrence (11.79 vs 8.94 per 10,000 person-years) and stroke (31.41 vs 22.45 per 10,000 person-years). Cox proportional hazard regression model analysis showed that development of urinary calculi was independently associated with higher risk of developing future MI (HR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.09-1.56, p=0.003), stroke (HR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.24-1.55, p<0.001), and total cardiovascular events (HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.25-1.51, p<0.001). Urinary calculi were associated with an increased risk of future cardiovascular events in the Asian population, which was consistent with the recent epidemiologic evidence in Western countries. Copyright © 2015 Japanese College of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Use of NARCCAP Model Projections to Develop a Future Typical Meteorological Year and Estimate the Impact of a Changing Climate on Building Energy Consumption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patton, S. L.; Takle, E. S.; Passe, U.; Kalvelage, K.

2013-12-01

Current simulations of building energy consumption use weather input files based on the past thirty years of climate observations. These 20th century climate conditions may be inadequate when designing buildings meant to function well into the 21st century. An alternative is using model projections of climate change to estimate future risk to the built environment. In this study, model-projected changes in climate were combined with existing typical meteorological year data to create future typical meteorological year data. These data were then formatted for use in EnergyPlus simulation software to evaluate their potential impact on commercial building energy consumption. The modeled climate data were taken from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). NARCCAP uses results of global climate models to drive regional climate models, also known as dynamical downscaling. This downscaling gives higher resolution results over specific locations, and the multiple global/regional climate model combinations provide a unique opportunity to quantify the uncertainty of climate change projections and their impacts. Our results show a projected decrease in heating energy consumption and a projected increase in cooling energy consumption for nine locations across the United States for all model combinations. Warmer locations may expect a decrease in heating load of around 30% to 45% and an increase in cooling load of around 25% to 35%. Colder locations may expect a decrease in heating load of around 15% to 25% and an increase in cooling load of around 40% to 70%. The change in net energy consumption is determined by the balance between the magnitudes of heating change and cooling change. Net energy consumption is projected to increase by an average of 5% for lower-latitude locations and decrease by an average of 5% for higher-latitude locations. With these projected annual and seasonal changes presenting strong evidence for the unsuitable nature of

Future leisure environments

Treesearch

Elwood L. Shafer; George H. Moeller; Russell E. Getty

1974-01-01

As an aid to policy- and decision-making about future environmental problems, a panel of experts was asked to predict the probabilities of future events associated with natural-resource management, wildland-recreation management, environmental pollution, population-workforce-leisure, and urban environments. Though some of the predictions projected to the year 2050 may...

Health priorities and public preferences: the relative importance of past health experience and future health prospects.

PubMed

Dolan, Paul; Tsuchiya, Aki

2005-07-01

We explore people's choices where the preference for those with worse future health prospects and the preference for the young over the old conflict. The empirical study used scenarios with four attributes: past years, past health, future years without treatment, and future health without treatment. One hundred respondents ranked various patient groups described in these terms. The results suggest a strong effect of past years: younger groups (40-year-olds) were always chosen over older ones (60-year-olds). Past health was significant in one question but not the other and future health and years without treatment were both non-significant.

The Next Generation of Risk Assessment Multi-Year Study-Highlights of Findings, Applications to Risk Assessment, and Future Directions.

PubMed

Cote, Ila; Andersen, Melvin E; Ankley, Gerald T; Barone, Stanley; Birnbaum, Linda S; Boekelheide, Kim; Bois, Frederic Y; Burgoon, Lyle D; Chiu, Weihsueh A; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Crofton, Kevin M; DeVito, Michael; Devlin, Robert B; Edwards, Stephen W; Guyton, Kathryn Z; Hattis, Dale; Judson, Richard S; Knight, Derek; Krewski, Daniel; Lambert, Jason; Maull, Elizabeth Anne; Mendrick, Donna; Paoli, Gregory M; Patel, Chirag Jagdish; Perkins, Edward J; Poje, Gerald; Portier, Christopher J; Rusyn, Ivan; Schulte, Paul A; Simeonov, Anton; Smith, Martyn T; Thayer, Kristina A; Thomas, Russell S; Thomas, Reuben; Tice, Raymond R; Vandenberg, John J; Villeneuve, Daniel L; Wesselkamper, Scott; Whelan, Maurice; Whittaker, Christine; White, Ronald; Xia, Menghang; Yauk, Carole; Zeise, Lauren; Zhao, Jay; DeWoskin, Robert S

2016-11-01

The Next Generation (NexGen) of Risk Assessment effort is a multi-year collaboration among several organizations evaluating new, potentially more efficient molecular, computational, and systems biology approaches to risk assessment. This article summarizes our findings, suggests applications to risk assessment, and identifies strategic research directions. Our specific objectives were to test whether advanced biological data and methods could better inform our understanding of public health risks posed by environmental exposures. New data and methods were applied and evaluated for use in hazard identification and dose-response assessment. Biomarkers of exposure and effect, and risk characterization were also examined. Consideration was given to various decision contexts with increasing regulatory and public health impacts. Data types included transcriptomics, genomics, and proteomics. Methods included molecular epidemiology and clinical studies, bioinformatic knowledge mining, pathway and network analyses, short-duration in vivo and in vitro bioassays, and quantitative structure activity relationship modeling. NexGen has advanced our ability to apply new science by more rapidly identifying chemicals and exposures of potential concern, helping characterize mechanisms of action that influence conclusions about causality, exposure-response relationships, susceptibility and cumulative risk, and by elucidating new biomarkers of exposure and effects. Additionally, NexGen has fostered extensive discussion among risk scientists and managers and improved confidence in interpreting and applying new data streams. While considerable uncertainties remain, thoughtful application of new knowledge to risk assessment appears reasonable for augmenting major scope assessments, forming the basis for or augmenting limited scope assessments, and for prioritization and screening of very data limited chemicals. Citation: Cote I, Andersen ME, Ankley GT, Barone S, Birnbaum LS, Boekelheide K

Thinking about the future as a way to succeed in the present: a longitudinal study of future orientation and violent behaviors among African American youth.

PubMed

Stoddard, Sarah A; Zimmerman, Marc A; Bauermeister, José A

2011-12-01

Previous research has linked higher levels of hopelessness about one's future to violent behavior during adolescence; however, little is known about this relationship over time for adolescents. Using growth curve modeling, we tested the association between future orientation and violent behavior across the high school years of adolescence in a sample of African American youth (n = 681). Variation based on demographic characteristics (i.e., sex, SES, previous violence) was explored. At baseline, differences in violent behavior varied by demographic characteristics. Overall, violent behavior decreased with age. Higher levels of future orientation were associated with greater decreases in violent behavior over time. Demographic characteristics were not associated with change in violent behavior overtime. Our findings suggest that future orientation can act as a promotive factor for at risk African American youth. Interventions that help support the development of future goals and aspirations could play a vital role in violence prevention efforts.

Tracing children's vocabulary development from preschool through the school-age years: An 8-year longitudinal study

PubMed Central

Kang, Cuiping; Liu, Hongyun; Zhang, Yuping; McBride-Chang, Catherine; Tardif, Twila; Li, Hong; Liang, Weilan; Zhang, Zhixiang; Shu, Hua

2014-01-01

In this 8-year longitudinal study, we traced the vocabulary growth of Chinese children, explored potential precursors of vocabulary knowledge, and investigated how vocabulary growth predicted future reading skills. Two hundred sixty-four (264) native Chinese children from Beijing were measured on a variety of reading and language tasks over 8 years. Between the ages of 4 to 10 years, they were administered tasks of vocabulary and related cognitive skills. At age 11, comprehensive reading skills, including character recognition, reading fluency, and reading comprehension were examined. Individual differences in vocabulary developmental profiles were estimated using the intercept-slope cluster method. Vocabulary development was then examined in relation to later reading outcomes. Three subgroups of lexical growth were classified, namely high-high (with a large initial vocabulary size and a fast growth rate), low-high (with a small initial vocabulary size and a fast growth rate) and low-low (with a small initial vocabulary size and a slow growth rate) groups. Low-high and low-low groups were distinguishable mostly through phonological skills, morphological skills and other reading-related cognitive skills. Childhood vocabulary development (using intercept and slope) explained subsequent reading skills. Findings suggest that language-related and reading-related cognitive skills differ among groups with different developmental trajectories of vocabulary, and the initial size and growth rate of vocabulary may be two predictors for later reading development. PMID:24962559

Psychological factors determining success in a medical career: a 10-year longitudinal study.

PubMed

Tartas, Malgorzata; Walkiewicz, Maciej; Majkowicz, Mikolaj; Budzinski, Waldemar

2011-01-01

Systemic review of predictors of success in medical career is an important tool to recognize the indicators of proper training. To determine psychological factors that predict success in a medical career. The success is defined as professional competence, satisfaction with medicine as a career, occupational stress and burnout and quality of life (QOF). Part I (1999-2005), medical students were examined each subsequent year, beginning with admission. Assessment included academic achievement (high school final examination results, entrance exam results, academic results during medical school) and psychological characteristics (sense of coherence (SOC), depression, anxiety, coping styles, value system and need for social approval). Part II (2008-2009), the same participants completed an Internet survey 4 years after graduation. Results of the postgraduate medical exam were taken under consideration. Academic achievement predicts only professional competence. Coping styles are significant indicators of satisfaction with medicine as a career. SOC, while assessed with anxiety and depression during studies, enabled us to recognize future QOF of medical graduates. Professional stress is not predictable to such an extent as other success indicators. There are significant psychological qualities useful to draw the outline of the future job and life performance of medical graduates.

Idaho's Library Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Idaho State Library, Boise.

In l998, Idahoans gathered in a series of six Regional Futures Conferences to identify what they thought was probable during the next ten years, what was possible for libraries to do and be, and what a preferred future of Idaho libraries might be. Participants from the regional conferences then convened to refine and focus descriptions of the…

Optimism for the Future in Younger and Older Adults.

PubMed

Durbin, Kelly A; Barber, Sarah J; Brown, Maddalena; Mather, Mara

2018-01-09

Research has suggested that older adults are less optimistic about their future than younger adults; however, a limitation of prior studies is that younger and older adults were forecasting to different ages and stages of life. To address this, we investigated whether there are age differences in future optimism when people project to the exact same age. We also tested whether optimism differs when projecting one's own future versus another person's future. Participants were 285 younger and 292 older adults recruited from Amazon Mechanical Turk. Participants completed writing and word-rating tasks in which they imagined their own future in 15 years, their own future at age 85, or the average person's future at age 85. Younger adults were more optimistic than older adults about their own future in 15 years. In contrast, both age groups were similarly optimistic about their future at age 85 and expected it to be more positive than others' future at age 85. Contrary to previous research, younger and older adults had comparable future forecasts when projecting to the exact same age. These findings emphasize the need to consider age and stage of life when examining age differences in future optimism. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The future of pharmaceutical care in France: a survey of final-year pharmacy students' opinions

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background In the last decades, the provision of pharmaceutical care by community pharmacists has developed in OECD countries. These developments involved significant changes in professional practices and organization of primary care. In France, they have recently been encouraged by a new legal framework and favored by an increasing demand for health care (increase in the number of patients with chronic diseases) and reductions in services being offered (reduction in the number of general practitioners and huge regional disparities). Objectives: This study aimed to investigate final-year pharmacy students' opinions on 1/expanding the scope of pharmacists' practices and 2/the potential barriers for the implementation of pharmaceutical care. We discussed these in the light of the experiences of pharmacists in Quebec, and other countries in Europe (United Kingdom and the Netherlands). Methods All final-year students in pharmaceutical studies, preparing to become community pharmacists, at the University Paris-Descartes in Paris during 2010 (n = 146) were recruited. All of them were interviewed by means of a questionnaire describing nine "professional" practices by pharmacists, arranged in four dimensions: (1) screening and chronic disease management, (2) medication surveillance, (3) pharmacy-prescribed medication and (4) participation in health care networks. Respondents were asked (1) how positively they view the extension of their current practices, using a 5 point Likert scale and (2) their perception of potential professional, technical, organizational and/or financial obstacles to developing these practices. Results 143 (97.9%) students completed the questionnaire. Most of practices studied received a greater than 80% approval rating, although only a third of respondents were in favor of the sales of over-the-counter (OTC) drugs. The most significant perceived barriers were working time, remuneration and organizational problems, specifically the need to create a

Trajectories of Preparation for Future Care among First-Degree Relatives of Alzheimer's Disease Patients: An Ancillary Study of ADAPT

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mak, Wingyun; Sorensen, Silvia

2012-01-01

Purpose: This study examines the longitudinal patterns of Preparation for Future Care (PFC), defined as Awareness, Avoidance, Gathering Information, Decision Making, and Concrete Plans, in first-degree relatives of people with Alzheimer's disease (AD). Design and Methods: Eight time points across 6.5 years from a subsample of adults aged 70 years…

One hundred and fifty years of sprint and distance running – Past trends and future prospects

PubMed Central

Weiss, Martin; Newman, Alexandra; Whitmore, Ceri; Weiss, Stephan

2016-01-01

Abstract Sprint and distance running have experienced remarkable performance improvements over the past century. Attempts to forecast running performances share an almost similarly long history but have relied so far on relatively short data series. Here, we compile a comprehensive set of season-best performances for eight Olympically contested running events. With this data set, we conduct (1) an exponential time series analysis and (2) a power-law experience curve analysis to quantify the rate of past performance improvements and to forecast future performances until the year 2100. We find that the sprint and distance running performances of women and men improve exponentially with time and converge at yearly rates of 4% ± 3% and 2% ± 2%, respectively, towards their asymptotic limits. Running performances can also be modelled with the experience curve approach, yielding learning rates of 3% ± 1% and 6% ± 2% for the women's and men's events, respectively. Long-term trends suggest that: (1) women will continue to run 10–20% slower than men, (2) 9.50 s over 100 m dash may only be broken at the end of this century and (3) several middle- and long-distance records may be broken within the next two to three decades. The prospects of witnessing a sub-2 hour marathon before 2100 remain inconclusive. Our results should be interpreted cautiously as forecasting human behaviour is intrinsically uncertain. The future season-best sprint and distance running performances will continue to scatter around the trends identified here and may yield unexpected improvements of standing world records. PMID:26088705

Study of Mothers' Anxieties Related to Their Children's Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ilgar, Sengul

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study is to study anxieties of mothers related to their children's future. Qualitative method was used in order to study anxieties of mothers from different socio-economic levels. Sample of the study participants are 129 mothers living in Istanbul. 32 of those mothers are from upper socio-economic level, 57, from middle…

Planning Schools for the Future. Publication No. BM-1.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weinberger, JoAnn

In a three-year study, Research for Better Schools (RBS) was asked by the National Institute of Education to identify, analyze, and verify definitive social changes forecast for the decades ahead, and to project their implications for schools of the future. RBS reviewed the literature to extract future planning needs relevant to educational…

Self-Esteem and Future Orientation Predict Adolescents' Risk Engagement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jackman, Danielle M.; MacPhee, David

2017-01-01

This study's purpose was to examine the relations among future orientation, self-esteem, and later adolescent risk behaviors, and to compare two mediational models involving self-esteem versus future orientation as mediators. An ethnically diverse sample of 12- to 14-year-olds (N = 862, 54% female, 53% ethnic minority) was assessed longitudinally.…

Injuries in a Professional Ballet Dance Company: A 10-year Retrospective Study.

PubMed

Ramkumar, Prem N; Farber, Joseph; Arnouk, Johnny; Varner, Kevin E; Mcculloch, Patrick C

2016-03-01

Ballet dancers are high-performance athletes who are particularly susceptible to a wide variety of musculoskeletal injuries. However, they are relatively understudied, and data on their injury rates are lacking. This retrospective study features the largest aggregate data on professional ballet dancers to date and aims to identify the most common diagnoses and areas of injury in this unique population to better direct preventative and clinical practices. The study encompassed a 10-year period from January 2000 to December 2010 of dancers from a single company. Data regarding the dancers' age, gender, location of injury, and diagnosis were collected from workers' compensation claims, company records, and medical records maintained by the treating doctors. These were analyzed to determine metrics on injury incidence, frequency, and diagnosis. Over the 10-year span, 574 injuries occurred. There were approximately 52 dancers per year for a total of 153 who danced at least one complete season during the study period. The average age was 27, and 53% were female. Given turnover with retirement and replacements, the total number of dancer-years was 520, indicating an injury incidence per annum of 1.10 (574 injuries per 520 dancer-years). The most common locations of injury were foot and ankle and the lumbar spine, with the three most common diagnoses making up greater than a third (37%) of the total. As the current largest study in professional ballet, the findings set the benchmark metrics for musculoskeletal injury to the foot, ankle, and lumbar spine sites. Future studies should aim to identify injury risk factors and modalities for prevention of these injuries.

Vision for Future Buildings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

2016-05-19

In the last 10 years our lives have changed so quickly, and drastically, that it's hard to imagine what the distant future might bring. Because buildings are large, long-term investments, the building sector has been slower to change. It can take more than 100 years for our cities to be renovated or rebuilt using updated methods and technologies. But to get there, we must start to conceptualize what the functions and capabilities of these future buildings could be, today.

Vision for Future Buildings

ScienceCinema

None

2018-01-16

In the last 10 years our lives have changed so quickly, and drastically, that it's hard to imagine what the distant future might bring. Because buildings are large, long-term investments, the building sector has been slower to change. It can take more than 100 years for our cities to be renovated or rebuilt using updated methods and technologies. But to get there, we must start to conceptualize what the functions and capabilities of these future buildings could be, today.

Enhancing a Person, Enhancing a Civilization: A Research Program at the Intersection of Bioethics, Future Studies, and Astrobiology.

PubMed

Ćirković, Milan M

2017-07-01

There are manifold intriguing issues located within largely unexplored borderlands of bioethics, future studies (including global risk analysis), and astrobiology. Human enhancement has for quite some time been among the foci of bioethical debates, but the same cannot be said about its global, transgenerational, and even cosmological consequences. In recent years, discussions of posthuman and, in general terms, postbiological civilization(s) have slowly gained a measure of academic respect, in parallel with the renewed interest in the entire field of future studies and the great strides made in understanding of the origin and evolution of life and intelligence in their widest, cosmic context. These developments promise much deeper synergic answers to questions regarding the long-term future of enhancement: how far can it go? Is human enhancement a further step toward building a true postbiological civilization? Should we actively participate and help shape this process? Is the future of humanity "typical" in the same Copernican sense as our location in space and time is typical in the galaxy, and if so, can we derive important insights about the evolutionary pathways of postbiological evolution from astrobiological and Search for ExtraTerrestrial Intelligence (SETI) studies? These and similar questions could be understood as parts of a possible unifying research program attempting to connect cultural and moral evolution with what we know and understand about their cosmological and biological counterparts.

"On solid ground": family and school connectedness promotes adolescents' future orientation.

PubMed

Crespo, Carla; Jose, Paul E; Kielpikowski, Magdalena; Pryor, Jan

2013-10-01

The present study investigated the role of connectedness to the family and school contexts on future orientation of New Zealand adolescents. Participants were 1774 young people (51.9% female) aged between 9 and 16 years at time 1 of the study, who reported their connectedness to family and school and their perceptions of future orientation at three times of measurement one year apart. Structural equation modelling was used to test the combined role of family and school connectedness on future orientation over time. Findings supported a multiple mediation model in that adolescents' connectedness to family and school predicted more positive perceptions of future orientation both directly and indirectly via the effect of the context variables on each other. Copyright © 2013 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Forecasting future needs and optimal allocation of medical residency positions: the Emilia-Romagna Region case study.

PubMed

Senese, Francesca; Tubertini, Paolo; Mazzocchetti, Angelina; Lodi, Andrea; Ruozi, Corrado; Grilli, Roberto

2015-01-30

Italian regional health authorities annually negotiate the number of residency grants to be financed by the National government and the number and mix of supplementary grants to be funded by the regional budget. This study provides regional decision-makers with a requirement model to forecast the future demand of specialists at the regional level. We have developed a system dynamics (SD) model that projects the evolution of the supply of medical specialists and three demand scenarios across the planning horizon (2030). Demand scenarios account for different drivers: demography, service utilization rates (ambulatory care and hospital discharges) and hospital beds. Based on the SD outputs (occupational and training gaps), a mixed integer programming (MIP) model computes potentially effective assignments of medical specialization grants for each year of the projection. To simulate the allocation of grants, we have compared how regional and national grants can be managed in order to reduce future gaps with respect to current training patterns. The allocation of 25 supplementary grants per year does not appear as effective in reducing expected occupational gaps as the re-modulation of all regional training vacancies.

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 2. Renewable Electricity Generation and Storage Technologies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Augustine, Chad; Bain, Richard; Chapman, Jamie

2012-06-15

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a futuremore » through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%–90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Learn more at the RE Futures website. http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re_futures/« less

The child as proband for future parental cardiometabolic disease: the 26-year prospective Princeton Lipid Research Clinics Follow-up Study.

PubMed

Morrison, John A; Glueck, Charles J; Wang, Ping

2012-04-01

To evaluate children's cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors as predictors of parents' subsequent CVD, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and high blood pressure (HBP). We conducted a 26-year prospective follow-up of 852 5- to 19-year-old black and white schoolchildren (mean age, 12 years; Lipid Research Clinics, 1973-8), and parents (mean age, 40 years) from 519 families in Princeton Schools, Cincinnati, Ohio. Schoolchildren were reassessed in the Princeton Follow-up study 1999-2003 at mean age 39 years; CVD, T2DM, and HBP history of their 1038 parents were reassessed by mean age 66 years. We assessed relationships of childhood risk factors with parental CVD, T2DM, and HBP. Child-probands identified with triglyceride (TG) levels, blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, body mass index (BMI), and glucose level greater than and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels less than established cutoff points. Pediatric HBP (P=.006) and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (P=.018) were predictive of parental CVD at age ≤50 years. Pediatric HBP (P=.02) and high TG (P=.03) were predictive of parental CVD at age ≤60 years. Pediatric high TG (P=.009) and high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (P=.04) were predictive of parental CVD by age 66 years. Pediatric high BMI (P=.0006) were predictive of parental T2DM. Pediatric high BMI (P=.003) and black race (P=.004) were predictive of parental HBP. Pediatric risk factors identify families with parents at increased risk for CVD, T2DM, and HBP, emphasizing the usefulness of the child as proband. Copyright © 2012 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

A Qualitative Study of Persistence and Performance: Factors in the Motivation of First Year Tertiary Education Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holden, Helen

2005-01-01

The dilemma of student motivation at regional university sites needs to be examined to expose peculiarities in regional areas that impact on the future sustainability of tertiary education programs in those areas. The focus of this phenomenographic study was the persistence and performance of 11 first year university students. Interviews with…

The Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Mission: Seven Years at the Moon - Accomplishments, Data, and Future Prospects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petro, Noah; Keller, John

2016-07-01

The LRO Spacecraft has been orbiting the Moon for over 7 years (~91 lunations), and in that time data from the seven instruments has contributed to a revolution in our understanding of the Moon. Since launch the mission goals and instruments science questions have evolved, from the initial characterization of the lunar surface and its environment to studying the variability of surface hydration and measuring the flux of new craters that have formed during LRO's time in lunar orbit. The growing LRO dataset in the PDS presents a unique archive that allows for an unprecedented opportunity to study how an airless body changes over time. The LRO instrument suite [1] is performing nominally, with no significant performance issues since the mission entered the current extended mission. The Mini-RF instrument team is investigating new methods for collecting bistatic data using an Earth-based X-band transmitter [2] during a possible upcoming extended mission starting in September 2016, pending NASA approval. The LRO spacecraft has been in an elliptical, polar orbit with a low perilune over the South Pole since December 2011. This orbit minimizes annual fuel consumption, enabling LRO to use fuel to maximize opportunities for obtaining unique science (e.g., lunar eclipse measurements from Diviner, measuring spacecraft impacts by GRAIL and LADEE). The LRO instrument teams deliver data to the PDS every three months, data that includes raw, calibrated, and gridded/map products [3]. As of January, over 681TB has been archived. These higher-level data products include a number of resources that are useful for mission planners, in addition to planetary scientists. A focus of the mission has been on the South Pole, therefore a number of special products (e.g., illumination maps, high resolution topography, hydration maps) are available. Beyond the poles, high-resolution (~1-2 m spatial resolution) topographic products are available for select areas, as well as maps of rock abundance

Back to the Future: Past and Future Era-Based Schematic Support and Associative Memory for Prices in Younger and Older Adults

PubMed Central

Castel, Alan D.; McGillivray, Shannon; Worden, Kendell M.

2014-01-01

Older adults typically display various associative memory deficits, but these deficits can be reduced when conditions allow for the use of prior knowledge or schematic support. To determine how era-specific schematic support and future simulation might influence associative memory, we examined how younger and older adults remember prices from the past as well as the future. Younger and older adults were asked to imagine the past or future, and then studied items and prices from approximately 40 years ago (market value prices from the 1970s) or 40 years in the future. In Experiment 1, all items were common items (e.g., movie ticket, coffee) and the associated prices reflected the era in question, whereas in Experiment 2, some item-price pairs were specific to the time period (e.g., typewriter, robot maid), to test different degrees of schematic support. After studying the pairs, participants were shown each item and asked to recall the associated price. In both experiments, older adults showed similar performance as younger adults in the past condition for the common items, whereas age-related differences were greater in the future condition and for the era-specific items. The findings suggest that in order for schematic support to be effective, recent (and not simply remote) experience is needed in order to enhance memory. Thus, whereas older adults can benefit from “turning back the clock,” younger adults better remember future-oriented information compared with older adults, outlining age-related similarities and differences in associative memory and the efficient use of past and future-based schematic support. PMID:24128073

Publicly Available Geosynchronous (GEO) Space Object Catalog for Future Space Situational Awareness (SSA) Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koblick, D. C.; Shankar, P.; Xu, S.

Previously, there have been many commercial proposals and extensive academic studies regarding ground and space based sensors to assist a space surveillance network in obtaining metric observations of satellites and debris near Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO). Most use physics based models for geometric constraints, lighting, and tasker/scheduler operations of sensor architectures. Under similar physics modeling assumptions, the space object catalog is often different due to proprietary standards and datasets. Lack of catalog commonality between studies creates barriers and difficulty comparing performance benefits of sensor trades. To solve this problem, we have constructed a future GEO space catalog from publicly available datasets and literature. The annual number of new payloads and rocket bodies is drawn from a Poisson distribution while the growth of the current GEO catalog is bootstrapped from the historical payload, upper stage, and debris data. We adopt a spherically symmetric explosion model and couple it with the NASA standard breakup model to simulate explosions of payloads and rocket bodies as they are the primary drivers of the debris population growth. The cumulative number of fragments follow a power-law distribution. Result from 1,000 random catalog growth simulations indicates that the GEO space object population in the year 2050 will include over 3,600 objects, nearly half of which are debris greater than 10 cm spherical diameter. The number of rocket bodies and dead payloads is projected to nearly double over the next 33 years. For comparison, the current Air Force Space Command catalog snapshot contains fewer than 50 pieces of debris and coarse Radar Cross Section (RCS) estimates which include: small, medium, and large. The current catalog may be sufficient for conjunction studies, but not for analyzing future sensor system performance. The 2050 GEO projected catalog will be available online for commercial/academic research and development.

Past and future drought in Mongolia.

PubMed

Hessl, Amy E; Anchukaitis, Kevin J; Jelsema, Casey; Cook, Benjamin; Byambasuren, Oyunsanaa; Leland, Caroline; Nachin, Baatarbileg; Pederson, Neil; Tian, Hanqin; Hayles, Laia Andreu

2018-03-01

The severity of recent droughts in semiarid regions is increasingly attributed to anthropogenic climate change, but it is unclear whether these moisture anomalies exceed those of the past and how past variability compares to future projections. On the Mongolian Plateau, a recent decade-long drought that exceeded the variability in the instrumental record was associated with economic, social, and environmental change. We evaluate this drought using an annual reconstruction of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) spanning the last 2060 years in concert with simulations of past and future drought through the year 2100 CE. We show that although the most recent drought and pluvial were highly unusual in the last 2000 years, exceeding the 900-year return interval in both cases, these events were not unprecedented in the 2060-year reconstruction, and events of similar duration and severity occur in paleoclimate, historical, and future climate simulations. The Community Earth System Model (CESM) ensemble suggests a drying trend until at least the middle of the 21st century, when this trend reverses as a consequence of elevated precipitation. Although the potential direct effects of elevated CO 2 on plant water use efficiency exacerbate uncertainties about future hydroclimate trends, these results suggest that future drought projections for Mongolia are unlikely to exceed those of the last two millennia, despite projected warming.

Past and future drought in Mongolia

PubMed Central

Hessl, Amy E.; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Jelsema, Casey; Cook, Benjamin; Byambasuren, Oyunsanaa; Leland, Caroline; Nachin, Baatarbileg; Pederson, Neil; Tian, Hanqin; Hayles, Laia Andreu

2018-01-01

The severity of recent droughts in semiarid regions is increasingly attributed to anthropogenic climate change, but it is unclear whether these moisture anomalies exceed those of the past and how past variability compares to future projections. On the Mongolian Plateau, a recent decade-long drought that exceeded the variability in the instrumental record was associated with economic, social, and environmental change. We evaluate this drought using an annual reconstruction of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) spanning the last 2060 years in concert with simulations of past and future drought through the year 2100 CE. We show that although the most recent drought and pluvial were highly unusual in the last 2000 years, exceeding the 900-year return interval in both cases, these events were not unprecedented in the 2060-year reconstruction, and events of similar duration and severity occur in paleoclimate, historical, and future climate simulations. The Community Earth System Model (CESM) ensemble suggests a drying trend until at least the middle of the 21st century, when this trend reverses as a consequence of elevated precipitation. Although the potential direct effects of elevated CO2 on plant water use efficiency exacerbate uncertainties about future hydroclimate trends, these results suggest that future drought projections for Mongolia are unlikely to exceed those of the last two millennia, despite projected warming. PMID:29546236

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 2: Renewable Electricity Generation and Storage Technologies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Augustine, C.; Bain, R.; Chapman, J.

2012-06-01

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a futuremore » through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%-90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).« less

EO-1/Hyperion: Nearing Twelve Years of Successful Mission Science Operation and Future Plans

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Middleton, Elizabeth M.; Campbell, Petya K.; Huemmrich, K. Fred; Zhang, Qingyuan; Landis, David R.; Ungar, Stephen G.; Ong, Lawrence; Pollack, Nathan H.; Cheng, Yen-Ben

2012-01-01

The Earth Observing One (EO-1) satellite is a technology demonstration mission that was launched in November 2000, and by July 2012 will have successfully completed almost 12 years of high spatial resolution (30 m) imaging operations from a low Earth orbit. EO-1 has two unique instruments, the Hyperion and the Advanced Land Imager (ALI). Both instruments have served as prototypes for NASA's newer satellite missions, including the forthcoming (in early 2013) Landsat-8 and the future Hyperspectral Infrared Imager (HyspIRI). As well, EO-1 is a heritage platform for the upcoming German satellite, EnMAP (2015). Here, we provide an overview of the mission, and highlight the capabilities of the Hyperion for support of science investigations, and present prototype products developed with Hyperion imagery for the HyspIRI and other space-borne spectrometers.

A 30-year history of earthquake crisis communication in California and lessons for the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, L.

2015-12-01

The first statement from the US Geological Survey to the California Office of Emergency Services quantifying the probability of a possible future earthquake was made in October 1985 about the probability (approximately 5%) that a M4.7 earthquake located directly beneath the Coronado Bay Bridge in San Diego would be a foreshock to a larger earthquake. In the next 30 years, publication of aftershock advisories have become routine and formal statements about the probability of a larger event have been developed in collaboration with the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (CEPEC) and sent to CalOES more than a dozen times. Most of these were subsequently released to the public. These communications have spanned a variety of approaches, with and without quantification of the probabilities, and using different ways to express the spatial extent and the magnitude distribution of possible future events. The USGS is re-examining its approach to aftershock probability statements and to operational earthquake forecasting with the goal of creating pre-vetted automated statements that can be released quickly after significant earthquakes. All of the previous formal advisories were written during the earthquake crisis. The time to create and release a statement became shorter with experience from the first public advisory (to the 1988 Lake Elsman earthquake) that was released 18 hours after the triggering event, but was never completed in less than 2 hours. As was done for the Parkfield experiment, the process will be reviewed by CEPEC and NEPEC (National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council) so the statements can be sent to the public automatically. This talk will review the advisories, the variations in wording and the public response and compare this with social science research about successful crisis communication, to create recommendations for future advisories

The future of transit in West Virginia.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-12-01

The Future of Transit in West Virginia is a study of the current system of public transportation in West Virginia and : an examination of issues, priorities and projections of the public transportation network in the coming years. The : purpose...

A methodology for the preliminary scoping of future changes in ecosystem services, with an illustration from the future midwestern landscapes study

EPA Science Inventory

The product is a white paper defining a methodology for the preliminary scoping of future changes in ecosystem services, with an Illustration from the Future Midwestern Landscapes Study. The scoping method develops a hierarchy of relevant societal values, identifies the ecosyste...

Age differences in future orientation and delay discounting.

PubMed

Steinberg, Laurence; Graham, Sandra; O'Brien, Lia; Woolard, Jennifer; Cauffman, Elizabeth; Banich, Marie

2009-01-01

Age differences in future orientation are examined in a sample of 935 individuals between 10 and 30 years using a delay discounting task as well as a new self-report measure. Younger adolescents consistently demonstrate a weaker orientation to the future than do individuals aged 16 and older, as reflected in their greater willingness to accept a smaller reward delivered sooner than a larger one that is delayed, and in their characterizations of themselves as less concerned about the future and less likely to anticipate the consequences of their decisions. Planning ahead, in contrast, continues to develop into young adulthood. Future studies should distinguish between future orientation and impulse control, which may have different neural underpinnings and follow different developmental timetables.

Academic plastic surgery: a study of current issues and future challenges.

PubMed

Zetrenne, Eleonore; Kosins, Aaron M; Wirth, Garrett A; Bui, Albert; Evans, Gregory R D; Wells, James H

2008-06-01

The objectives of this study were (1) to evaluate the role of a full-time academic plastic surgeon, (2) to define the indicators predictive of a successful career in academic plastic surgery, and (3) to understand the current issues that will affect future trends in the practice of academic plastic surgery. A questionnaire was developed to evaluate the role of current full-time academic plastic surgeons and to understand the current issues and future challenges facing academic plastic surgery. Each plastic surgery program director in the United States was sent the survey for distribution among all full-time academic plastic surgeons. Over a 6-week period, responses from 143 full-time academic plastic surgeons (approximately 31%) were returned. Fifty-three percent of respondents had been academic plastic surgeons for longer than 10 years. Seventy-three percent of respondents defined academic plastic surgeons as clinicians who are teachers and researchers. However, 53% of respondents believed that academic plastic surgeons were not required to teach or practice within university hospitals/academic centers. The 3 factors reported most frequently as indicative of a successful career in academic plastic surgery were peer recognition, personal satisfaction, and program reputation. Dedication and motivation were the personal characteristics rated most likely to contribute to academic success. Forty-four percent of respondents were unable to identify future academic plastic surgeons from plastic surgery residency applicants, and 27% were not sure. Most (93%) of the respondents believed that academic surgery as practiced today will change. The overall job description of a full-time academic plastic surgeon remains unchanged (teacher and researcher). Whereas peer recognition, personal satisfaction, and program reputation were most frequently cited as indicative of a successful plastic surgery career, financial success was rated the least indicative. Similarly, whereas the

Future design of perpetual pavements for New Mexico.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-12-29

This study provides guidance for future designs of perpetual pavements in New Mexico. The perpetual pavement in this study refers to only hot mix asphalt (HMA) pavement sections designed for a useful life of 50 years or more without having major dist...

Cost-Savings Analysis of the Better Beginnings, Better Futures Community-Based Project for Young Children and Their Families: A 10-Year Follow-up.

PubMed

Peters, Ray DeV; Petrunka, Kelly; Khan, Shahriar; Howell-Moneta, Angela; Nelson, Geoffrey; Pancer, S Mark; Loomis, Colleen

2016-02-01

This study examined the long-term cost-savings of the Better Beginnings, Better Futures (BBBF) initiative, a community-based early intervention project for young children living in socioeconomically disadvantaged neighborhoods during their transition to primary school. A quasi-experimental, longitudinal two-group design was used to compare costs and outcomes for children and families in three BBBF project neighborhoods (n = 401) and two comparison neighborhoods (n = 225). A cost-savings analysis was conducted using all project costs for providing up to 4 years of BBBF programs when children were in junior kindergarten (JK) (4 years old) to grade 2 (8 years old). Data on 19 government service cost measures were collected from the longitudinal research sample from the time the youth were in JK through to grade 12 (18 years old), 10 years after ending project participation. The average family incremental net savings to government of providing the BBBF project was $6331 in 2014 Canadian dollars. When the BBBF monetary return to government as a ratio of savings to costs was calculated, for every dollar invested by the government, a return of $2.50 per family was saved. Findings from this study have important implications for government investments in early interventions focused on a successful transition to primary school as well as parenting programs and community development initiatives in support of children's development.

Second and third year oral health and dental student perceptions of future professional work.

PubMed

Tan, A S; Anderson, V R; Foster Page, L A

2013-11-01

To explore and compare the ways dental and oral health students characterise their future professional work (FPW) at the end of their second and third professional years. Questionnaires were given to a cohort group of 48 dental students and 31 oral health students at the end of their second and third professional years at the University of Otago. Students' characterisations of their FPW were identified using an inductive approach, and the emphasis on each characterisation was confirmed using a 'weighted' table. Dental student response rates were 92% (in 2010) and 85% (in 2011); and oral health student response rates were 100% (in 2011) and 97% (in 2011). Students characterised their FPW in ten broad ways: in reference to treatment-related concerns, patient-related concerns, oral health promotion, oral health education, disease prevention and monitoring, communication, teamwork, maintaining an ideal clinical environment, maintaining a sense of self and improving quality of life. In both years, dental students emphasised treatment-related concerns as central to their FPW and dealing with patient-related concerns as a primary source of difficulty. Oral health students emphasised oral health promotion, oral health education, disease prevention and monitoring and restorative tasks as central to their FPW and dealing with patient-related concerns as a primary source of difficulty. Students' broad perceptions of their FPW changed little as they progressed through their programmes; however, their responses suggested the need for greater attention within their programmes to patient management and teamwork. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Enhancing Student Motivation: A Longitudinal Intervention Study Based on Future Time Perspective Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schuitema, Jaap; Peetsma, Thea; van der Veen, Ineke

2014-01-01

The authors investigated the effects of an intervention developed to enhance student motivation in the first years of secondary education. The intervention, based on future time perspective (FTP) theory, has been found to be effective in prevocational secondary education (T. T. D. Peetsma & I. Van der Veen, 2008, 2009). The authors extend the…

Past and Future Episodic Thinking in Middle Childhood

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Qi; Capous, Diana; Koh, Jessie Bee Kim; Hou, Yubo

2014-01-01

The abilities of past and future episodic thinking develop hand in hand across the preschool years and are intimately connected in adults. Little is known, however, about the development of episodic thinking in middle childhood and how it is influenced by sociocultural factors. In the present study, one hundred sixty-seven 7- to 10-year-old…

Prognostic factors for work ability in women with chronic low back pain consulting primary health care: a 2-year prospective longitudinal cohort study.

PubMed

Nordeman, Lena; Gunnarsson, Ronny; Mannerkorpi, Kaisa

2014-05-01

To investigate prognostic factors for future work ability in women with chronic low back pain (CLBP) consulting primary health care. A 2-year prospective longitudinal cohort study of female patients with CLBP within the primary health care was conducted. Patients were assessed at the first assessment and after 2 years. Prognostic factors for work ability (yes/no) were analyzed by multivariate regression. A total of 130 patients were included at first assessment. After 2 years, 123 patients (95%) were followed up. The 6-minute walk test, depression, and earlier work ability predicted work ability at the 2-year follow-up. A nomogram was constructed to assess the probability of future work ability. The 6-minute walk test, work ability, and depression predicted work ability for women with CLBP after 2 years.

Future self-continuity is associated with improved health and increases exercise behavior.

PubMed

Rutchick, Abraham M; Slepian, Michael L; Reyes, Monica O; Pleskus, Lindsay N; Hershfield, Hal E

2018-03-01

To the extent that people feel more continuity between their present and future selves, they are more likely to make decisions with the future self in mind. The current studies examined future self-continuity in the context of health. In Study 1, people reported the extent to which they felt similar and connected to their future self; people with more present-future continuity reported having better subjective health across a variety of measures. In Study 2, people were randomly assigned to write a letter to themselves either three months or 20 years into the future; people for whom continuity with the distant future self was enhanced exercised more in the days following the writing task. These findings suggest that future self-continuity promotes adaptive long-term health behavior, suggesting the promise of interventions enhancing future self-continuity. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Back to the future: past and future era-based schematic support and associative memory for prices in younger and older adults.

PubMed

Castel, Alan D; McGillivray, Shannon; Worden, Kendell M

2013-12-01

Older adults typically display various associative memory deficits, but these deficits can be reduced when conditions allow for the use of prior knowledge or schematic support. To determine how era-specific schematic support and future simulation might influence associative memory, we examined how younger and older adults remember prices from the past as well as the future. Younger and older adults were asked to imagine the past or future, and then studied items and prices from approximately 40 years ago (market value prices from the 1970s) or 40 years in the future. In Experiment 1, all items were common items (e.g., movie ticket, coffee) and the associated prices reflected the era in question, whereas in Experiment 2, some item-price pairs were specific to the time period (e.g., typewriter, robot maid), to test different degrees of schematic support. After studying the pairs, participants were shown each item and asked to recall the associated price. In both experiments, older adults showed similar performance as younger adults in the past condition for the common items, whereas age-related differences were greater in the future condition and for the era-specific items. The findings suggest that in order for schematic support to be effective, recent (and not simply remote) experience is needed in order to enhance memory. Thus, whereas older adults can benefit from "turning back the clock," younger adults better remember future-oriented information compared with older adults, outlining age-related similarities and differences in associative memory and the efficient use of past and future-based schematic support. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

The future of breast cancer systemic therapy: the next 10 years.

PubMed

Telli, Melinda L; Sledge, George W

2015-02-01

Over the past 50 years, substantial progress has been made in the systemic treatment of early-stage and advanced breast cancer. The use of chemotherapy in the adjuvant and metastatic settings has demonstrated proven efficacy and it has been clearly demonstrated that targeting the estrogen receptor and human growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) is efficacious in early and advanced disease. Despite these advances, vexing clinical challenges remain particularly related to the treatment of triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC; estrogen receptor [ER]-negative, progesterone receptor [PR]-negative, and HER2-negative) where little progress has been made therapeutically in more than a decade. While recurrences of hormone-responsive breast cancer are overall less common, late relapses after cessation of endocrine therapy are a more frequent occurrence in modern times and reflect the problem of underlying tumor dormancy that as yet has not been overcome. Multiple molecular tools are now available to interrogate the biology of breast cancer, though exactly how to make this information meaningful in the clinic has proven challenging, and molecularly driven clinical trials have faced feasibility challenges. In parallel, focus has expanded from tumor to host with the ability to ascertain underlying germline alterations, such as inherited BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations, which may be responsible for breast cancer carcinogenesis and, importantly, may have implications for treatment. These clinical advances in germline genetics, made possible by both scientific investigation as well as the courts, still face challenges related to increasing encounters with variants of unknown significance and difficulty in predicting risks associated with less well-characterized inherited cancer predisposition syndromes. In this paper, we attempt to predict the next 10 years of breast cancer, in particular focusing on how the past serves as prologue to the future in this disease.

Association between education and future leisure-time physical inactivity: a study of Finnish twins over a 35-year follow-up.

PubMed

Piirtola, Maarit; Kaprio, Jaakko; Kujala, Urho M; Heikkilä, Kauko; Koskenvuo, Markku; Svedberg, Pia; Silventoinen, Karri; Ropponen, Annina

2016-08-04

Education is associated with health related lifestyle choices including leisure-time physical inactivity. However, the longitudinal associations between education and inactivity merit further studies. We investigated the association between education and leisure-time physical inactivity over a 35-year follow-up with four time points controlling for multiple covariates including familial confounding. This study of the population-based Finnish Twin Cohort consisted of 5254 twin individuals born in 1945-1957 (59 % women), of which 1604 were complete same-sexed twin pairs. Data on leisure-time physical activity and multiple covariates was available from four surveys conducted in 1975, 1981, 1990 and 2011 (response rates 72 to 89 %). The association between years of education and leisure-time physical inactivity (<1.5 metabolic equivalent hours/day) was first analysed for each survey. Then, the role of education was investigated for 15-year and 35-year inactivity periods in the longitudinal analyses. The co-twin control design was used to analyse the potential familial confounding of the effects. All analyses were conducted with and without multiple covariates. Odds Ratios (OR) with 95 % Confidence Intervals (CI) were calculated using logistic and conditional (fixed-effects) regression models. Each additional year of education was associated with less inactivity (OR 0.94 to 0.95, 95 % CI 0.92, 0.99) in the cross-sectional age- and sex-adjusted analyses. The associations of education with inactivity in the 15- and 35-year follow-ups showed a similar trend: OR 0.97 (95 % CI 0.93, 1.00) and OR 0.94 (95 % CI 0.91, 0.98), respectively. In all co-twin control analyses, each year of higher education was associated with a reduced likelihood of inactivity suggesting direct effect (i.e. independent from familial confounding) of education on inactivity. However, the point estimates were lower than in the individual-level analyses. Adjustment for multiple covariates did not

Future hydrological regimes and glacier cover in the Everest region: The case study of the upper Dudh Koshi basin.

PubMed

Soncini, Andrea; Bocchiola, Daniele; Confortola, Gabriele; Minora, Umberto; Vuillermoz, Elisa; Salerno, Franco; Viviano, Gaetano; Shrestha, Dibas; Senese, Antonella; Smiraglia, Claudio; Diolaiuti, Guglielmina

2016-09-15

Assessment of future water resources under climate change is required in the Himalayas, where hydrological cycle is poorly studied and little understood. This study focuses on the upper Dudh Koshi river of Nepal (151km(2), 4200-8848ma.s.l.) at the toe of Mt. Everest, nesting the debris covered Khumbu, and Khangri Nup glaciers (62km(2)). New data gathered during three years of field campaigns (2012-2014) were used to set up a glacio-hydrological model describing stream flows, snow and ice melt, ice cover thickness and glaciers' flow dynamics. The model was validated, and used to assess changes of the hydrological cycle until 2100. Climate projections are used from three Global Climate Models used in the recent IPCC AR5 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Flow statistics are estimated for two reference decades 2045-2054, and 2090-2099, and compared against control run CR, 2012-2014. During CR we found a contribution of ice melt to stream flows of 55% yearly, with snow melt contributing for 19%. Future flows are predicted to increase in monsoon season, but to decrease yearly (-4% vs CR on average) at 2045-2054. At the end of century large reduction would occur in all seasons, i.e. -26% vs CR on average at 2090-2099. At half century yearly contribution of ice melt would be on average 45%, and snow melt 28%. At the end of century ice melt would be 31%, and snow contribution 39%. Glaciers in the area are projected to thin largely up to 6500ma.s.l. until 2100, reducing their volume by -50% or more, and their ice covered area by -30% or more. According to our results, in the future water resources in the upper Dudh Koshi would decrease, and depend largely upon snow melt and rainfall, so that adaptation measures to modified water availability will be required. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Divorce and Death: Forty Years of the Charleston Heart Study

PubMed Central

Nietert, Paul J.

2010-01-01

Forty years of follow-up data from the Charleston Heart Study (CHS) were used to examine the risk for early mortality associated with marital separation or divorce in a sample of over 1,300 adults assessed on several occasions between 1960 and 2000. Participants who were separated or divorced at study inception evidenced significantly higher rates of early mortality, and these results held after adjusting for baseline health status and other demographic variables. Being separated or divorced throughout the CHS follow-up window was one of the strongest predictors of early mortality. However, the excess mortality risk associated with remaining separated/divorced was completely eliminated when participants were re-classified as having ever experienced a marital separation or divorce. These findings suggest a key determinant of early death is the amount of time people live as separated or divorced and/or dimensions of personality that predict divorce as well as a decreased likelihood of future remarriage. PMID:19076315

Back posture education in elementary schoolchildren: a 2-year follow-up study.

PubMed

Geldhof, Elisabeth; Cardon, Greet; De Bourdeaudhuij, Ilse; De Clercq, Dirk

2007-06-01

Within the scope of primary prevention regarding back functioning in children, research on the stability of intervention effects is indispensable. Along this line, the transition from childhood to adolescence is an important phase to evaluate the potential stability of intervention effects because of the typically mechanical and psychological demands related to adolescence. The main aim of the current study was to investigate the effects of a back education program at 2-year follow-up, in youngsters aged 13-14 years, on back posture knowledge, fear-avoidance beliefs and self-reported pain. An additional purpose was to evaluate which aspects of postural behavior were integrated in youngsters' lifestyles. At 2-year follow-up, the study sample included 94 secondary schoolchildren in the intervention group (mean age 13.3 +/- 0.8 years) and 101 controls (mean age 13.2 +/- 0.7 years). The back posture program that had been implemented for two school years consisted of back education and the stimulation of postural dynamism in the class through support and environmental changes. A questionnaire was completed comparable to the pretest, posttest and follow-up evaluations. The current study demonstrated at 2-year follow-up stability of the improved general (F = 1.590, ns) and specific (F = 0.049, ns) back posture knowledge in children who had received early back posture education. Back posture education did not result in increased fear-avoidance beliefs (F = 1.163, ns) or mounting back and/or neck pain reports (F = 0.001, ns). Based on self-reports for postural behavior, youngsters who had received the back posture program in the elementary school curriculum integrated crucial sitting and lifting principles conform to biomechanical favorable postural behavior. The steady intervention effects 2-year post-intervention demonstrated that intensive back posture education through the elementary school curriculum is effective till adolescence. Future research on the impact of early

Divorce and death: forty years of the Charleston Heart Study.

PubMed

Sbarra, David A; Nietert, Paul J

2009-01-01

Forty years of follow-up data from the Charleston Heart Study (CHS) were used to examine the risk for early mortality associated with marital separation or divorce in a sample of more than 1,300 adults assessed on several occasions between 1960 and 2000. Participants who were separated or divorced at the start of the study evidenced significantly elevated rates of early mortality, and these results held after adjusting for baseline health status and other demographic variables. Being separated or divorced throughout the CHS follow-up window was one of the strongest predictors of early mortality. However, the excess mortality risk associated with separation or divorce was completely eliminated when participants who had ever experienced a marital separation or divorce during the study were compared with all other participants. These findings suggest that a key predictor of early death is the amount of time people live as separated or divorced. It is possible that the mortality risk conferred by marital dissolution is due to dimensions of personality that predict divorce as well as a decreased likelihood of future remarriage.

Evaluation of Future Blogs. Final Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haines, Ben; Straw, Suzanne

2008-01-01

Future Blogs was developed through collaboration between the Royal Society of Chemistry and The Brightside Trust. It is an innovative e-mentoring scheme that links pupils studying chemistry with mentors from universities or industry and is based on the Bright Journals e-mentoring programme (an e-mentoring scheme targeted at 14-18 year olds…

20 Years of EUROCALL: Learning from the Past, Looking to the Future. Proceedings [of the] 2013 EUROCALL Conference (Évora, Portugal, September 11-14, 2013)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bradley, Linda, Ed.; Thouësny, Sylvie, Ed.

2013-01-01

EUROCALL 2013's theme was "20 Years of EUROCALL: Learning from the Past, Looking to the Future." The conference seeked to establish an overview of EUROCALL's twentieth anniversary. As a professional organization, EUROCALL has been aiming, along its 20 years of existence, to promote innovative research, development and practice in the…

Developing future precipitation events from historic events: An Amsterdam case study.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manola, Iris; van den Hurk, Bart; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

2016-04-01

Due to climate change, the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events is expected to increase. It is therefore of high importance to develop climate change scenarios tailored towards the local and regional needs of policy makers in order to develop efficient adaptation strategies to reduce the risks from extreme weather events. Current approaches to tailor climate scenarios are often not well adopted in hazard management, since average changes in climate are not a main concern to policy makers, and tailoring climate scenarios to simulate future extremes can be complex. Therefore, a new concept has been introduced recently that uses known historic extreme events as a basis, and modifies the observed data for these events so that the outcome shows how the same event would occur in a warmer climate. This concept is introduced as 'Future Weather', and appeals to the experience of stakeholders and users. This research presents a novel method of projecting a future extreme precipitation event, based on a historic event. The selected precipitation event took place over the broader area of Amsterdam, the Netherlands in the summer of 2014, which resulted in blocked highways, disruption of air transportation, flooded buildings and public facilities. An analysis of rain monitoring stations showed that an event of such intensity has a 5 to 15 years return period. The method of projecting a future event follows a non-linear delta transformation that is applied directly on the observed event assuming a warmer climate to produce an "up-scaled" future precipitation event. The delta transformation is based on the observed behaviour of the precipitation intensity as a function of the dew point temperature during summers. The outcome is then compared to a benchmark method using the HARMONIE numerical weather prediction model, where the boundary conditions of the event from the Ensemble Prediction System of ECMWF (ENS) are perturbed to indicate a warmer climate. The two

The future of practical skills in undergraduate medical education - an explorative Delphi-Study.

PubMed

Dannenberg, Katja Anne; Stroben, Fabian; Schröder, Therese; Thomas, Anke; Hautz, Wolf E

2016-01-01

64% of young medical professionals in Germany do not feel adequately prepared for the practical requirements of the medical profession. The goal of "outcome-orientated training" is to structure medical curricula based on the skills needed when entering the workforce after completing undergraduate medical education, and thus to bridge the gap between the skills graduates have attained and those necessary for a career in the medical profession. Outcome frameworks (OFs) are used for this purpose. In preparation for developing the National Competence-Based Catalogue of Learning Objectives for Medicine (NKLM) - the German OF - the "Consensus Statement of Practical Skills in Undergraduate Medical Education" (which structures the teaching and acquisition of practical skills in Germany and which strongly influenced the "Clinical-Practical Skills" chapter of the NKLM) was published in 2011. It is not uncommon for at least a decade to elapse between the definition and implementation of an OF and the students' graduation, which can further increase the gap between necessary and acquired skills. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to posit theses for future development in healthcare and to apply these theses to a current OF. Partially structured interviews with experts were used to generate theses pertaining to general, future development in healthcare. These theses were assessed by physician experts based on the likelihood of implementation by the year 2025. The 288 learning goals of the consensus statement were assessed for their relevance for medical education in the interim. 11 theses were generated for the development of medicine, and these theses were assessed and discussed by 738 experts. These theses include the increase in diseases associated with old age, the increasing significance of interprofessional cooperation, and the growing prevalence of telemedicine applications. Of the 288 learning goals of the consensus statement, 231 of the goals were assessed as relevant

Episodic Future Thinking in Semantic Dementia: A Cognitive and fMRI Study

PubMed Central

Viard, Armelle; Piolino, Pascale; Belliard, Serge; de La Sayette, Vincent; Desgranges, Béatrice; Eustache, Francis

2014-01-01

Semantic dementia (SD) is characterized by gradual loss of semantic memory. While episodic autobiographical memory seems relatively preserved, behavioral studies suggest that episodic future thinking is impaired. We used fMRI to measure brain activity in four SD patients (JPL, EP, LL, EG) while they envisioned future events and remembered personal past events. Twelve healthy elders served as controls. Episodic quality, emotion, mental imagery and level of consciousness (via remember/know judgements) were checked at debriefing. We analyzed the future compared to the past for each patient. All patients presented lateral temporal atrophy, but varied in terms of frontal and anterior hippocampal atrophy. Patient JPL presented atrophy in bilateral superior medial frontal gyri and left anterior hippocampus and was unable to engage in episodic future thinking, despite hyperactivations in frontal and occipital regions. Patient EP presented no atrophy in the anterior hippocampus, but atrophy in bilateral superior medial frontal gyrus and had difficulties to engage in episodic future thinking. Patient LL presented atrophy in left anterior hippocampus, but hyperactivated its right counterpart for future compared to past thinking, permitting her to project efficiently in the future in an episodic way. Patient EG presented no atrophy in the superior medial frontal gyri or anterior hippocampi and was able to engage in episodic future thinking. Altogether, patients' future projections differed depending on the severity and localization of their atrophy. The functional integrity of bilateral superior medial frontal gyri and anterior hippocampus appear crucial for episodic future thinking: atrophy of both structures strongly impairs future projection, while integrity of these structures or hyperactivation of residual tissue normalizes episodic future projection. PMID:25333997

Human Robotic Study at Houghton Crater - virtual reality study from NASA Ames (FFC) Future Fight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

Human Robotic Study at Houghton Crater - virtual reality study from NASA Ames (FFC) Future Fight Central simulator tower L-R: Dr Geoffrey Briggs; Jen Jasper (seated); Dr Jan Akins and Mr. Tony Gross, Ames

The Amsterdam Growth and Health Longitudinal Study. The past (1976-1996) and future (1997-?).

PubMed

Kemper, H C; van Mechelen, W; Post, G B; Snel, J; Twisk, J W; van Lenthe, F J; Welten, D C

1997-07-01

This article presents an overview of the Amsterdam Growth and Health Longitudinal Study (AGAHLS). This study was started in the 1970s, following a whole sample of 500 healthy 13-year-old boys and girls from two secondary schools. During the school period (12-17 years) annual measurements were performed with respect to anthropometrics, physiological and psychological parameters, lifestyle characteristics (activity, diet, smoking) and health parameters. A multiple longitudinal design was applied with overlapping birth cohorts and a cross-sectional measured control group to monitor for confounding factors such as time of measurement, cohort, dropout and testing effects. Emphasis is also placed on measures that enhance adherence of the subjects. The follow-up was extended with repeated measurements at age 21, 26 and 28. This enabled us to analyze the data with respect to tracking characteristics of biological and lifestyle variables over a period of 15 years between adolescence and adulthood and also to investigate quasi-causal relationships between the effects of a healthy lifestyle and indicators for cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Also new methods such as measurement of atherosclerosis and osteoporosis will be added and related to longitudinal measurements of the same subjects in the past. The main results that were obtained in the past are summarized and research questions for the near future are explained.

Gazing into the Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reese, Susan

2009-01-01

"We cannot always build the future for our youth, but we can build our youth for the future." Franklin D. Roosevelt spoke those words more than 50 years ago. It was a time when students took classes called "shop," and those students were almost exclusively boys. Home economics classes, on the other hand, were filled with girls learning cooking and…

Electrification Futures Study: End-Use Electric Technology Cost and Performance Projections through 2050

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vimmerstedt, Laura J.; Jadun, Paige; McMillan, Colin A.

This report provides projected cost and performance assumptions for electric technologies considered in the Electrification Futures Study, a detailed and comprehensive analysis of the effects of widespread electrification of end-use service demands in all major economic sectors - transportation, residential and commercial buildings, and industry - for the contiguous United States through 2050. Using extensive literature searches and expert assessment, the authors identify slow, moderate, and rapid technology advancement sensitivities on technology cost and performance, and they offer a comparative analysis of levelized cost metrics as a reference indicator of total costs. The identification and characterization of these end-use servicemore » demand technologies is fundamental to the Electrification Futures Study. This report, the larger Electrification Futures Study, and the associated data and methodologies may be useful to planners and analysts in evaluating the potential role of electrification in an uncertain future. The report could be broadly applicable for other analysts and researchers who wish to assess electrification and electric technologies.« less

Procrastination, consideration of future consequences, and episodic future thinking.

PubMed

Rebetez, Marie My Lien; Barsics, Catherine; Rochat, Lucien; D'Argembeau, Arnaud; Van der Linden, Martial

2016-05-01

Despite the intrinsic temporal nature of procrastination, little research has examined the link between this form of self-regulatory failure and the consideration of future consequences, and no study has addressed the link between procrastination and episodic future thinking. The aim of the present study was to explore these relationships. Participants were asked to project themselves into possible future events and to rate the amount of sensory-perceptual details and autonoetic consciousness associated with their representations. They were also asked to complete questionnaires that assessed procrastination, the consideration of future consequences, and negative affect. Results showed that both the consideration of future consequences and episodic future thinking were associated with procrastination, and in particular with procrastination-related decision making abilities and procrastination-related motivational dispositions, respectively. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Perceived Reasons for Living at Index Hospitalization and Future Suicide Attempt

PubMed Central

Lizardi, Dana; Currier, Diane; Galfalvy, Hanga; Sher, Leo; Burke, Ainsley; Mann, John; Oquendo, Maria

2013-01-01

It is unclear why certain individuals choose not to engage in suicidal behavior. Although important, protective factors against suicidal behavior have seldom been studied. The Reasons for Living Inventory is a measure of putative protective factors that is inversely related to a history of suicide attempts, but its predictive utility remains relatively untested. This study sought to determine whether the Reasons for Living Inventory predicts future suicide attempts over a 2-year period. Depressed inpatients were assessed for reasons for living and were followed for 2 years. Follow-up interviews took place at 3 months, 1 year, and 2 years after discharge from the index hospitalization. Survival analysis indicates a high score on the Reasons for Living Inventory predicted fewer future suicide attempts within a 2-year period in women but not in men. Perceived reasons for living serve as protective factors against suicide attempt in women and not in men. PMID:17502812

Future risk of labour market marginalization in young suicide attempters--a population-based prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Niederkrotenthaler, Thomas; Tinghög, Petter; Alexanderson, Kristina; Dahlin, Marie; Wang, Mo; Beckman, Karin; Gould, Madeleine; Mittendorfer-Rutz, Ellenor

2014-10-01

Research on future labour market marginalization following suicide attempt at young age is scarce. We investigated the effects of suicide attempts on three labour market outcomes: unemployment, sickness absence and disability pension. We conducted a prospective cohort study based on register linkage of 1,613,816 individuals who in 1994 were 16-30 years old and lived in Sweden. Suicide attempters treated in inpatient care during the 3 years preceding study entry, i.e. 1992-94 (N=5649) were compared with the general population of the same age without suicide attempt between 1973 and 2010 (n=1,608,167). Hazard ratios (HRs) for long-term unemployment (>180 days), sickness absence (>90 days) and disability pension in 1995-2010 were calculated by Cox regression models, adjusted for a number of parental and individual risk markers, and stratified for previous psychiatric inpatient care not due to suicide attempt. The risks for unemployment [HR 1.58; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.52-1.64], sickness absence (HR 2.16; 2.08-2.24) and disability pension (HR 4.57; 4.34-4.81) were considerably increased among suicide attempters. There was a dose-response relationship between number of suicide attempts and the risk of disability pension, for individuals both with or without previous psychiatric hospitalizations not due to suicide attempts. No such relationship was present with regard to unemployment. This study highlights the strong association of suicide attempts with future marginalization from the labour market, particularly for outcomes that are based on a medical assessment. Studies that focus only on unemployment may largely underestimate the true detrimental impact of suicide attempt on labour market marginalization. © The Author 2014; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

Energy use in the marine transportation industry: Task III. Efficiency improvements; Task IV. Industry future. Final report, Volume IV. [Projections for year 2000

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

1977-12-01

Tasks III and IV measure the characteristics of potential research and development programs that could be applied to the maritime industry. It was necessary to identify potential operating scenarios for the maritime industry in the year 2000 and determine the energy consumption that would result given those scenarios. After the introductory chapter the operational, regulatory, and vessel-size scenarios for the year 2000 are developed in Chapter II. In Chapter III, future cargo flows and expected levels of energy use for the baseline 2000 projection are determined. In Chapter IV, the research and development programs are introduced into the future USmore » flag fleet and the energy-savings potential associated with each is determined. The first four appendices (A through D) describe each of the generic technologies. The fifth appendix (E) contains the baseline operating and cost parameters against which 15 program areas were evaluated. (MCW)« less

Moxie matters: associations of future orientation with active life expectancy.

PubMed

Laditka, Sarah B; Laditka, James N

2017-10-01

Being oriented toward the future has been associated with better future health. We studied associations of future orientation with life expectancy and the percentage of life with disability. We used the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (n = 5249). Participants' average age in 1968 was 33.0. Six questions repeatedly measured future orientation, 1968-1976. Seven waves (1999-2011, 33,331 person-years) measured disability in activities of daily living for the same individuals, whose average age in 1999 was 64.0. We estimated monthly probabilities of disability and death with multinomial logistic Markov models adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, childhood health, and education. Using the probabilities, we created large populations with microsimulation, measuring disability in each month for each individual, age 55 through death. Life expectancy from age 55 for white men with high future orientation was age 77.6 (95% confidence interval 75.5-79.0), 6.9% (4.9-7.2) of those years with disability; results with low future orientation were 73.6 (72.2-75.4) and 9.6% (7.7-10.7). Comparable results for African American men were 74.8 (72.9-75.3), 8.1 (5.6-9.3), 71.0 (69.6-72.8), and 11.3 (9.1-11.7). For women, there were no significant differences associated with levels of future orientation for life expectancy. For white women with high future orientation 9.1% of remaining life from age 55 was disabled (6.3-9.9), compared to 12.4% (10.2-13.2) with low future orientation. Disability results for African American women were similar but statistically significant only at age 80 and over. High future orientation during early to middle adult ages may be associated with better health in older age.

Associations Among Individuals’ Perceptions of Future Time, Individual Resources, and Subjective Well-Being in Old Age

PubMed Central

Hoppmann, Christiane A.; Infurna, Frank J.; Ram, Nilam; Gerstorf, Denis

2015-01-01

Objectives Perceptions of future time are of key interest to aging research because of their implications for subjective well-being. Interestingly, perceptions about future time are only moderately associated with age, pointing to a vast heterogeneity in future time perceptions among older adults. We examine associations between future time perceptions, age, and subjective well-being across two studies, including moderations by individual resources. Method Using data from the Berlin Aging Study (N = 516; Mage = 85 years), we link one operationalization (subjective nearness to death) and age to subjective well-being. Using Health and Retirement Study data (N = 2,596; Mage = 77 years), we examine associations of another future time perception indicator (subjective future life expectancy) and age with subjective well-being. Results Consistent across studies, perceptions of limited time left were associated with poorer subjective well-being (lower life satisfaction and positive affect; more negative affect and depressive symptoms). Importantly, individual resources moderated future time perception–subjective well-being associations with those of better health exhibiting reduced future time perception–subjective well-being associations. Discussion We discuss our findings in the context of the Model of Strength and Vulnerability Integration. PMID:26437862

Khat Use and Neurobehavioral Functions: Suggestions for Future Studies

PubMed Central

Hoffman, Richard; al’Absi, Mustafa

2010-01-01

Although there is a rich body of research available regarding the effect of acute and chronic khat dosing in animal models, research on the behavioral and cognitive effects of khat in human subjects is not extensive and several of the available studies have been done only in the context of observational and single-case studies. In light of the absence of a substantial literature on the neurobehavioral deficits associated with khat use and to provide a context that could be used to identify themes for future research we review previous research that has focused on other stimulant drugs. This review highlights multiple areas of neurocognitive deficit that have been identified in previous studies of individuals who have been chronic users of stimulants, such as amphetamines and methamphetamines. The review highlights a substantial body of evidence demonstrating a wide range of learning and memory impairments including deficits that persist during abstinence from active drug use. This review does not imply a similar khat effect, but due to some similarities pharmacologically between the active components of khat (cathinone and cathine) and amphetamines, future studies examining these same domains of cognitive functioning in chronic khat users and abstinent khat users appears to be warranted, if possible using some of the same or similar laboratory measures. PMID:20553832

Vaccines of the future.

PubMed

Nossal, G J V

2011-12-30

Vaccines of the future can be divided into three broad groups, namely those of the near future (<10 years); the medium-term future (10-19 years); and the long-term future (20-50 years). For the near future, there is some "low hanging fruit" which is clearly on the horizon, such as a Vi-conjugate vaccine for typhoid or a protein-based vaccine for Neisseria meningitidis serogroup B. Just slightly more distant will be vaccines for shigellosis and a common protein vaccine for Streptococcus pneumoniae. Also in this group, but not as far advanced, will be a vaccine for Group A streptococcus. I place vaccines for the "big three", malaria, tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS in the medium term basket. The sporozoite malaria vaccine RTS-S is closest, but surely a definitive malaria vaccine will also require antigens from other stages of the life cycle. A tuberculosis vaccine will be either a re-engineered BCG; or a molecular vaccine with several protein antigens; or one based on prime-boost strategies. What will delay this is the high cost of clinical trials. For HIV/AIDS, the partial success of the Sanofi-Pasteur prime-boost vaccine has given some hope. I still place much faith in antibody-based vaccines and especially on mimotopes of the env transitional state assumed after initial CD4 binding. Monoclonal antibodies are also leading us in interesting directions. Longer term, the vaccine approach will be successful for autoimmune diseases, e.g. juvenile diabetes and coeliac disease. Cancer vaccines are also briefly surveyed. Adjunct issues needing to be addressed include more extensive combinations; alternate delivery systems; and more intelligently designed adjuvants based on knowledge of the innate immune system. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Serum Amino Acid Profiles in Childhood Predict Triglyceride Level in Adulthood: A 7-Year Longitudinal Study in Girls.

PubMed

Wiklund, Petri; Zhang, Xiaobo; Tan, Xiao; Keinänen-Kiukaanniemi, Sirkka; Alen, Markku; Cheng, Sulin

2016-05-01

Branched-chain and aromatic amino acids are associated with high risk of developing dyslipidemia and type II diabetes in adults. This study aimed to examine whether serum amino acid profiles associate with triglyceride concentrations during pubertal growth and predict hypertriglyceridemia in early adulthood. This was a 7.5-year longitudinal study. The study was conducted at the Health Science Laboratory, University of Jyväskylä. A total of 396 nondiabetic Finnish girls aged 11.2 ± 0.8 years at the baseline participated in the study. Body composition was assessed by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry; serum concentrations of glucose, insulin, and triglyceride by enzymatic photometric methods; and amino acids by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Serum leucine and isoleucine correlated significantly with future triglyceride, independent of baseline triglyceride level (P < .05 for all). In early adulthood (at the age of 18 years), these amino acids were significantly associated with hypertriglyceridemia, whereas fat mass and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance were not. Leucine was the strongest determinant discriminating subjects with hypertriglyceridemia from those with normal triglyceride level (area under the curve, 0.822; 95% confidence interval, 0.740-0.903; P = .000001). Serum leucine and isoleucine were associated with future serum triglyceride levels in girls during pubertal growth and predicted hypertriglyceridemia in early adulthood. Therefore, these amino acid indices may serve as biomarkers to identify individuals at high risk for developing hypertriglyceridemia and cardiovascular disease later in life. Further studies are needed to elucidate the role these amino acids play in the lipid metabolism.

The Monitoring the Future Project After Thirty-Two Years: Design and Procedures. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper 64

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bachman, Jerald G.; Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Schulenberg, John E.

2006-01-01

This occasional paper updates and extends earlier papers in the Monitoring the Future project. It provides a detailed description of the project's design, including sampling design, data collection procedures, measurement content, and questionnaire format. It attempts to include sufficient information for others who wish to evaluate the results,…

The Monitoring the Future Project after Four Decades: Design and Procedures. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper Series. Paper 82

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bachman, Jerald G.; Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Schulenberg, John E.; Miech, Richard A.

2015-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to provide a detailed description of the Monitoring the Future research design, including sampling design, data collection procedures, measurement content, and questionnaire format. This study assesses the changing lifestyles, values, and preferences of American youth on a continuing basis. Each year since 1975, at…

Serum TSH within the reference range as a predictor of future hypothyroidism and hyperthyroidism: 11-year follow-up of the HUNT Study in Norway.

PubMed

Åsvold, Bjørn O; Vatten, Lars J; Midthjell, Kristian; Bjøro, Trine

2012-01-01

Serum TSH in the upper part of the reference range may sometimes be a response to autoimmune thyroiditis in early stage and may therefore predict future hypothyroidism. Conversely, relatively low serum TSH could predict future hyperthyroidism. The objective of the study was to assess TSH within the reference range and subsequent risk of hypothyroidism and hyperthyroidism. This was a prospective population-based study with linkage to the Norwegian Prescription Database. A total of 10,083 women and 5,023 men without previous thyroid disease who had a baseline TSH of 0.20-4.5 mU/liter and who participated at a follow-up examination 11 yr later. Predicted probabilities of developing hypothyroidism or hyperthyroidism during follow-up, by categories of baseline TSH, were estimated. During 11 yr of follow-up, 3.5% of women and 1.3% of men developed hypothyroidism, and 1.1% of women and 0.6% of men developed hyperthyroidism. In both sexes, the baseline TSH was positively associated with the risk of subsequent hypothyroidism. The risk increased gradually from TSH of 0.50-1.4 mU/liter [women, 1.1%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.8-1.4; men, 0.3%, 95% CI 0.1-0.6] to a TSH of 4.0-4.5 mU/liter (women, 31.5%, 95% CI 24.6-39.3; men, 14.7%, 95% CI 7.7-26.2). The risk of hyperthyroidism was higher in women with a baseline TSH of 0.20-0.49 mU/liter (3.9%, 95% CI 1.8-8.4) than in women with a TSH of 0.50-0.99 mU/liter (1.4%, 95% CI 0.9-2.1) or higher (∼1.0%). TSH within the reference range is positively and strongly associated with the risk of future hypothyroidism. TSH at the lower limit of the reference range may be associated with an increased risk of hyperthyroidism.

A 20 Year Lifecycle Study for Launch Facilities at the Kennedy Space Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kolody, Mark R.; Li. Wenyan; Hintze, Paul E.; Calle, Luz-Marina

2009-01-01

The lifecycle cost analysis was based on corrosion costs for the Kennedy Space Center's Launch Complexes and Mobile Launch Platforms. The first step in the study involved identifying the relevant assets that would be included. Secondly, the identification and collection of the corrosion control cost data for the selected assets was completed. Corrosion control costs were separated into four categories. The sources of cost included the NASA labor for civil servant personnel directly involved in overseeing and managing corrosion control of the assets, United Space Alliance (USA) contractual requirements for performing planned corrosion control tasks, USA performance of unplanned corrosion control tasks, and Testing and Development. Corrosion control operations performed under USA contractual requirements were the most significant contributors to the total cost of corrosion. The operations include the inspection of the pad, routine maintenance of the pad, medium and large scale blasting and repainting activities, and the repair and replacement of structural metal elements. Cost data was collected from the years between 2001 and 2007. These costs were then extrapolated to future years to calculate the 20 year lifecycle costs.

Thirty Years of Music and Drama Education in the Madeira Island: Facing Future Challenges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mota, Graça; Abreu, Liliana

2014-01-01

In this paper we give an overview of relevant findings of a three years long case study that was carried out in the Madeira Island, Portugal. It addresses a thirty years old project in music and drama education in primary schools, which involves all children within the school curriculum, but also in extra-curriculum activities. The study used…

Swedish medical students' expectations of their future life

PubMed Central

Andersson, Jenny; Johansson, Eva E.; Verdonk, Petra; Lagro-Janssen, Antoine; Hamberg, Katarina

2011-01-01

Objectives: To investigate future life expectations among male and female medical students in their first and final year. Methods The study was cross-sectional and conducted at a Swedish medical school. Out of 600 invited students, 507 (85%) answered an open-ended question about their future life, 298 (59%) first-year students and 209 (41%) last-year students. Women constituted 60% of the respondents. A mixed model design was applied; qualitative content analysis was utilized to create statistically comparable themes and categories. Results Students’ written answers were coded, categorized and clustered into four themes: “Work”, “Family”, “Leisure” and “Quality of personal life”. Almost all students included aspects of work in their answers. Female students were more detailed than male ones in their family concerns. Almost a third of all students reflected on a future work-life balance, but considerations regarding quality of personal life and leisure were more common among last-year students. Conclusions Today’s medical students expect more of life than work, especially those standing on the doorstep of working life. They intend to balance work not only with a family but also with leisure activities. Our results reflect work attitudes that challenge the health care system for more adaptive working conditions. We suggest that discussions about work-life balance should be included in medical curricula.

Future orientation, impulsivity, and problem behaviors: a longitudinal moderation model.

PubMed

Chen, Pan; Vazsonyi, Alexander T

2011-11-01

In the current study, based on a sample of 1,873 adolescents between 11.4 and 20.9 years of age from the first 3 waves of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, we investigated the longitudinal effects of future orientation on levels of and developmental changes in problem behaviors, while controlling for the effects by impulsivity; we also tested the moderating effects by future orientation on the impulsivity-problem behaviors link over time. Additionally, we examined future orientation operationalized by items measuring education, marriage, and life domains. Findings based on growth curve analyses provided evidence of longitudinal effects by education and life future orientation on both levels of and developmental changes in problem behaviors; the effect of marriage future orientation was not significant for either test. In addition, only life future orientation moderated the effect by impulsivity on levels of problem behaviors over time. More specifically, impulsivity had a weaker effect on levels of problem behaviors over time for adolescents who reported higher levels of life future orientation.

Multi-path transportation futures study: Results from Phase 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patterson, Phil; Singh, Margaret; Plotkin, Steve

2007-03-09

This PowerPoint briefing provides documentation and details for Phase 1 of the Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study, which compares alternative ways to make significant reductions in oil use and carbon emissions from U.S. light vehicles to 2050. Phase I, completed in 2006, was a scoping study, aimed at identifying key analytic issues and constructing a study design. The Phase 1 analysis included an evaluation of several pathways and scenarios; however, these analyses were limited in number and scope and were designed to be preliminary.

Discovering the Future of the Case Study Method in Evaluation Research.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yin, Robert K.

1994-01-01

It is assumed that evaluators of the future will still be interested in case study methodology. Scenarios that ignore a case study method, that look back to a distinctive case study method, and that see the case study method as an integrating force in the qualitative-quantitative debate are explored. (SLD)

Sick Leave within 5 Years of Whiplash Trauma Predicts Recovery: A Prospective Cohort and Register-Based Study

PubMed Central

Carstensen, Tina Birgitte Wisbech; Fink, Per; Oernboel, Eva; Kasch, Helge; Jensen, Troels Staehelin; Frostholm, Lisbeth

2015-01-01

Background 10–22% of individuals sustaining whiplash trauma develop persistent symptoms resulting in reduced working ability and decreased quality of life, but it is poorly understood why some people do not recover. Various collision and post-collision risk factors have been studied, but little is known about pre-collision risk factors. In particular, the impact of sickness and socioeconomic factors before the collision on recovery is sparsely explored. The aim of this study was to examine if welfare payments received within five years pre-collision predict neck pain and negative change in provisional situation one year post-collision. Methods and Findings 719 individuals with acute whiplash trauma consecutively recruited from emergency departments or primary care after car accidents in Denmark completed questionnaires on socio-demographic and health factors immediately after the collision. After 12 months, a visual analogue scale on neck pain intensity was completed. 3595 matched controls in the general population were sampled, and national public register data on social benefits and any other welfare payments were obtained for participants with acute whiplash trauma and controls from five years pre-collision to 15 months after. Participants with acute whiplash trauma who had received sickness benefit for more than 12 weeks pre-collision had increased odds for negative change in future provisional situation (Odds Ratio (OR) (95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 3.8 (2.1;7.1)) and future neck pain (OR (95%CI) = 3.3 (1.8;6.3)), controlling for other known risk factors. Participants with acute whiplash trauma had weaker attachment to labour market (more weeks of sick leave (χ2(2) = 36.7, p < 0.001) and unemployment (χ2(2) = 12.5, p = 0.002)) pre-collision compared with controls. Experiencing a whiplash trauma raised the odds for future negative change in provisional situation (OR (95%CI) = 3.1 (2.3;4.4)) compared with controls. Conclusions Sick leave before the

Back posture education in elementary schoolchildren: a 2-year follow-up study

PubMed Central

Geldhof, Elisabeth; De Bourdeaudhuij, Ilse; De Clercq, Dirk

2006-01-01

Within the scope of primary prevention regarding back functioning in children, research on the stability of intervention effects is indispensable. Along this line, the transition from childhood to adolescence is an important phase to evaluate the potential stability of intervention effects because of the typically mechanical and psychological demands related to adolescence. The main aim of the current study was to investigate the effects of a back education program at 2-year follow-up, in youngsters aged 13–14 years, on back posture knowledge, fear-avoidance beliefs and self-reported pain. An additional purpose was to evaluate which aspects of postural behavior were integrated in youngsters’ lifestyles. At 2-year follow-up, the study sample included 94 secondary schoolchildren in the intervention group (mean age 13.3 ± 0.8 years) and 101 controls (mean age 13.2 ± 0.7 years). The back posture program that had been implemented for two school years consisted of back education and the stimulation of postural dynamism in the class through support and environmental changes. A questionnaire was completed comparable to the pretest, posttest and follow-up evaluations. The current study demonstrated at 2-year follow-up stability of the improved general (F = 1.590, ns) and specific (F = 0.049, ns) back posture knowledge in children who had received early back posture education. Back posture education did not result in increased fear-avoidance beliefs (F = 1.163, ns) or mounting back and/or neck pain reports (F = 0.001, ns). Based on self-reports for postural behavior, youngsters who had received the back posture program in the elementary school curriculum integrated crucial sitting and lifting principles conform to biomechanical favorable postural behavior. The steady intervention effects 2-year post-intervention demonstrated that intensive back posture education through the elementary school curriculum is effective till adolescence. Future research on

Digital Skills Acquisition: Future Trends among Older Adults

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gilliam, Brian K.

2011-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to identify future trends and barriers that will either facilitate or impede the narrowing of the digital skills divide among older adults during the next 10 years. Methodology: To address the research questions, this study used a modified version of the Delphi process using a panel of experts who…

Internet of Things in Higher Education: A Study on Future Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aldowah, Hanan; Rehman, Shafiq Ul; Ghazal, Samar; Naufal Umar, Irfan

2017-09-01

In the coming years, technology will impact the learning experience in many ways. Internet of Things (IoT) continues to confirm its important position in the context of Information and Communication Technologies and the development of society. With the support of IoT, institutions can enhance learning outcomes by providing more affluent learning experiences, improved operational efficiency, and by gaining real-time, actionable insight into student performance. The purpose of this study is to find out the potential of IoT in higher education and how to maximize its benefits and reducing the risks involved with it. Further efforts are necessary for releasing the full potential of IoT systems and technologies. Therefore, this paper presents a study about the impact of IoT on higher education especially universities. IoT stands to change dramatically the way universities work, and enhance student learning in many disciplines and at any level. It has huge potential for universities or any other educational institutions; if well prepared to ensure widespread and successful implementation by leadership, staff, and students. IoT needs development where universities can lead. Academics, researchers, and students are in a unique place to lead the discovery and development of IoT systems, devices, applications, and services. Moreover, this paper provides an evidences about the future of IoT in the higher education during the next few years, which have offered by a number of research organizations and enterprises. On the other hand, IoT also brings tremendous challenges to higher education. Hence, this paper also presents the perspective on the challenges of IoT in higher education.

Dental manpower planning in India: current scenario and future projections for the year 2020.

PubMed

Vundavalli, Sudhakar

2014-04-01

Dental manpower issues in India are discussed in this article which consists of both qualitative and quantitative research. The output of qualified dentists has increased substantially over last decade and at present there are over 117,825 dentists working in India. Although India has a dentist to population ratio of 1:10,271, the newly graduating dentists find it difficult to survive in the private sector. At present less than approximately 5% graduated dentists are working in the Government sector. If the present situation continues there will be more than one lakh dentists over supply by the year 2020. Continuation of the current situation will lead to wastage of highly trained dental manpower and create a threat to the professional integrity of the dentists. This research highlights the fact that there is an urgent need for an organised national human resource planning system to control the supply and demand of dental manpower, to ensure a uniform distribution of manpower and to give future directions to policy makers. © 2013 FDI World Dental Federation.

Future Flight Decks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arbuckle, P. Douglas; Abbott, Kathy H.; Abbott, Terence S.; Schutte, Paul C.

1998-01-01

The evolution of commercial transport flight deck configurations over the past 20-30 years and expected future developments are described. Key factors in the aviation environment are identified that the authors expect will significantly affect flight deck designers. One of these is the requirement for commercial aviation accident rate reduction, which is probably required if global commercial aviation is to grow as projected. Other factors include the growing incrementalism in flight deck implementation, definition of future airspace operations, and expectations of a future pilot corps that will have grown up with computers. Future flight deck developments are extrapolated from observable factors in the aviation environment, recent research results in the area of pilot-centered flight deck systems, and by considering expected advances in technology that are being driven by other than aviation requirements. The authors hypothesize that revolutionary flight deck configuration changes will be possible with development of human-centered flight deck design methodologies that take full advantage of commercial and/or entertainment-driven technologies.

The Role of Future Time Perspective in Psychological Contracts: A Study among Older Workers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bal, P. Matthijs; Jansen, Paul G. W.; van der Velde, Mandy E. G.; de Lange, Annet H.; Rousseau, Denise M.

2010-01-01

Using a sample of post-retirement workers (N = 176), this study investigated the role of future time perspective (FTP) in psychological contracts. The study aimed to test: (i) whether future time perspective is related to employer psychological contract fulfillment and (ii) whether it moderates relations between psychological contract fulfillment…

First-year Progress and Future Directions of the USA National Phenology Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weltzin, J. F.; Losleben, M. V.

2008-12-01

Background Periodic plant and animal cycles driven by seasonal variations in climate (i.e., phenology) set the stage for dynamics of ecosystem processes, determine land surface properties, control biosphere-atmosphere interactions, and affect food production, health, conservation, and recreation. Phenological data and models have applications related to scientific research, education and outreach, as well as to stakeholders interested in agriculture, tourism and recreation, human health, and natural resource conservation and management. The predictive potential of phenology requires a new data resource-a national network of integrated phenological observations and the tools to access and analyze them at multiple scales. The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) is an emerging and exciting partnership between federal agencies, the academic community, and the general public to monitor and understand the influence of seasonal cycles on the Nation's resources. The USA-NPN will establish a wall-to-wall science and monitoring initiative focused on phenology as a tool to understand how plants, animals and landscapes respond to climate variation, and as a tool to facilitate human adaptation to ongoing and potential future climate change. Results The National Coordinating Office of the USA-NPN began operation in August 2007 at the University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ. This first year of operation produced many new phenology products and venues for phenology research and citizen involvement, as well as identification of future directions for the USA NPN. Products include a new web-site (www.usanpn.org) that went live in June 2008; the web-site includes a tool for on-line data entry, and serves as a clearinghouse for products and information to facilitate research and communication related to phenology. The new core Plant Phenology Program includes profiles for 185 vetted local, regional, and national plant species with descriptions and monitoring protocols, as well as

Clinical application of antidepressant pharmacogenetics: considerations for the design of future studies.

PubMed

Fabbri, Chiara; Serretti, Alessandro

2018-06-12

A frustrating inertia has affected the development of clinical applications of antidepressant pharmacogenetics and personalized treatments of depression are still lacking 20 years after the first findings. Candidate gene studies provided replicated findings for some polymorphisms, but each of them shows at best a small effect on antidepressant efficacy and the cumulative effect of different polymorphisms is unclear. Further, no candidate was immune by at least some negative studies. These considerations give rise to some concerns about the clinical benefits of currently available pharmacogenetic tests since they are based on the results of candidate gene studies. Clinical guidelines in fact suggest that only polymorphisms that alter cytochrome 2D6 or 2C19 enzymatic activity probably provide useful clinical indications, while variants in genes involved in antidepressant pharmacodynamics have no recommended clinical applications. The present review discusses possible strategies to facilitate the identification of genetic biomarkers with clinical usefulness in guiding antidepressant treatments. These include analysis methods for the study of the polygenic/omnigenic nature of antidepressant response, the prioritization of polymorphisms on the basis of functional considerations, the incorporation of clinical-demographic predictors in pharmacogenetic studies (e.g. mixed polygenic and clinical risk scores), the application of methodological improvements to the design of future studies in order to maximize the comparability of results and improve power. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Comparative optimism in older adults' future health expectations.

PubMed

Vanderzanden, Karen; Ruthig, Joelle C

2018-05-13

Despite a common belief that health declines with age, many older adults remain optimistic about their future health. However, the longitudinal impact of personal and comparatively optimistic future health estimates (FHEs) is unclear. Among 408 older adults (M age  = 70.32 years), this study identified the prevalence, source, and two-year stability of comparatively optimistic FHEs; examined demographic, psychosocial, and health correlates of comparative FHEs; and assessed the role of comparative FHEs in predicting eight-year survival odds. Nearly half of participants were comparatively optimistic due to interpersonal pessimism more so than personal optimism. Regarding stability, comparative optimism declined over the two-year period. Being younger and having more perceived control, dispositional optimism, and recent positive emotions were associated with better FHEs for oneself and a similar other. Beyond effects of age, gender, relationship status, and dispositional optimism, optimistic personal FHEs predicted eight-year survival odds. Findings have implications for predicting survival and advancing the conceptual understanding of comparative FHEs. Statement of contribution What is already known on the subject? Previous research has demonstrated that older adults tend to believe diminished health accompanies increasing age. Despite this notion, older adults remain comparatively optimistic about their health. What does this study add? The longitudinal results of the current study indicated that nearly half of participants were categorized as comparative optimists, primarily due to interpersonal pessimism. The current study demonstrated that there is little distinction between personal FHEs and those for a similar other in terms of demographic, psychosocial, and health correlates. The current study identified factors that predicted eight-year survival among older adults, such as being female, younger, in a committed relationship, and better personal FHEs. © 2018

Resources for the Future. Annual Report 1970.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Resources for the Future, Inc., Washington, DC.

Presented is the Annual Report for Resources For The Future, Inc. (RFF) for the year ending September 30, 1970. This organization is dedicated to advancing the development, conservation, and use of natural resources and the improvement of the quality of the environment through programs of research and education. Most of their studies are in the…

The Healthy Primary School of the Future: study protocol of a quasi-experimental study.

PubMed

Willeboordse, M; Jansen, M W; van den Heijkant, S N; Simons, A; Winkens, B; de Groot, R H M; Bartelink, N; Kremers, S P; van Assema, P; Savelberg, H H; de Neubourg, E; Borghans, L; Schils, T; Coppens, K M; Dietvorst, R; Ten Hoopen, R; Coomans, F; Klosse, S; Conjaerts, M H J; Oosterhoff, M; Joore, M A; Ferreira, I; Muris, P; Bosma, H; Toppenberg, H L; van Schayck, C P

2016-07-26

Unhealthy lifestyles in early childhood are a major global health challenge. These lifestyles often persist from generation to generation and contribute to a vicious cycle of health-related and social problems. This design article presents a study evaluating the effects of two novel healthy school interventions. The main outcome measure will be changes in children's body mass index (BMI). In addition, lifestyle behaviours, academic achievement, child well-being, socio-economic differences, and societal costs will be examined. In close collaboration with various stakeholders, a quasi-experimental study was developed, for which children of four intervention schools (n = 1200) in the southern part of the Netherlands are compared with children of four control schools (n = 1200) in the same region. The interventions started in November 2015. In two of the four intervention schools, a whole-school approach named 'The Healthy Primary School of the Future', is implemented with the aim of improving physical activity and dietary behaviour. For this intervention, pupils are offered an extended curriculum, including a healthy lunch, more physical exercises, and social and educational activities, next to the regular school curriculum. In the two other intervention schools, a physical-activity school approach called 'The Physical Activity School', is implemented, which is essentially similar to the other intervention, except that no lunch is provided. The interventions proceed during a period of 4 years. Apart from the effectiveness of both interventions, the process, the cost-effectiveness, and the expected legal implications are studied. Data collection is conducted within the school system. The baseline measurements started in September 2015 and yearly follow-up measurements are taking place until 2019. A whole-school approach is a new concept in the Netherlands. Due to its innovative, multifaceted nature and sound scientific foundation, these integrated programmes

Future Research in Health Information Technology: A Review.

PubMed

Hemmat, Morteza; Ayatollahi, Haleh; Maleki, Mohammad Reza; Saghafi, Fatemeh

2017-01-01

Currently, information technology is considered an important tool to improve healthcare services. To adopt the right technologies, policy makers should have adequate information about present and future advances. This study aimed to review and compare studies with a focus on the future of health information technology. This review study was completed in 2015. The databases used were Scopus, Web of Science, ProQuest, Ovid Medline, and PubMed. Keyword searches were used to identify papers and materials published between 2000 and 2015. Initially, 407 papers were obtained, and they were reduced to 11 papers at the final stage. The selected papers were described and compared in terms of the country of origin, objective, methodology, and time horizon. The papers were divided into two groups: those forecasting the future of health information technology (seven papers) and those providing health information technology foresight (four papers). The results showed that papers related to forecasting the future of health information technology were mostly a literature review, and the time horizon was up to 10 years in most of these studies. In the health information technology foresight group, most of the studies used a combination of techniques, such as scenario building and Delphi methods, and had long-term objectives. To make the most of an investment and to improve planning and successful implementation of health information technology, a strategic plan for the future needs to be set. To achieve this aim, methods such as forecasting the future of health information technology and offering health information technology foresight can be applied. The forecasting method is used when the objectives are not very large, and the foresight approach is recommended when large-scale objectives are set to be achieved. In the field of health information technology, the results of foresight studies can help to establish realistic long-term expectations of the future of health information

The future of practical skills in undergraduate medical education – an explorative Delphi-Study

PubMed Central

Dannenberg, Katja Anne; Stroben, Fabian; Schröder, Therese; Thomas, Anke; Hautz, Wolf E.

2016-01-01

Background: 64% of young medical professionals in Germany do not feel adequately prepared for the practical requirements of the medical profession. The goal of “outcome-orientated training” is to structure medical curricula based on the skills needed when entering the workforce after completing undergraduate medical education, and thus to bridge the gap between the skills graduates have attained and those necessary for a career in the medical profession. Outcome frameworks (OFs) are used for this purpose. In preparation for developing the National Competence-Based Catalogue of Learning Objectives for Medicine (NKLM) – the German OF – the “Consensus Statement of Practical Skills in Undergraduate Medical Education” (which structures the teaching and acquisition of practical skills in Germany and which strongly influenced the “Clinical-Practical Skills” chapter of the NKLM) was published in 2011. It is not uncommon for at least a decade to elapse between the definition and implementation of an OF and the students’ graduation, which can further increase the gap between necessary and acquired skills. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to posit theses for future development in healthcare and to apply these theses to a current OF. Methodology: Partially structured interviews with experts were used to generate theses pertaining to general, future development in healthcare. These theses were assessed by physician experts based on the likelihood of implementation by the year 2025. The 288 learning goals of the consensus statement were assessed for their relevance for medical education in the interim. Results: 11 theses were generated for the development of medicine, and these theses were assessed and discussed by 738 experts. These theses include the increase in diseases associated with old age, the increasing significance of interprofessional cooperation, and the growing prevalence of telemedicine applications. Of the 288 learning goals of the consensus

Electrification Futures Study: End-Use Electric Technology Cost and Performance Projections through 2050

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jadun, Paige; McMillan, Colin; Steinberg, Daniel

This report is the first in a series of Electrification Futures Study (EFS) publications. The EFS is a multiyear research project to explore widespread electrification in the future energy system of the United States. More specifically, the EFS is designed to examine electric technology advancement and adoption for end uses in all major economic sectors as well as electricity consumption growth and load profiles, future power system infrastructure development and operations, and the economic and environmental implications of widespread electrification. Because of the expansive scope and the multiyear duration of the study, research findings and supporting data will be publishedmore » as a series of reports, with each report released on its own timeframe.« less

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 4: Bulk Electric Power Systems. Operations and Transmission Planning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Milligan, Michael; Ela, Erik; Hein, Jeff

2012-06-15

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a futuremore » through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%–90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Learn more at the RE Futures website. http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re_futures/« less

Examining the Cultural Competence of Third- and Fourth-Year Nutrition Students: A Pilot Study.

PubMed

Hack, Rebekah; Hekmat, Sharareh; Ahmadi, Latifeh

2015-12-01

The purpose of this study was to provide preliminary Canadian research assessing nutrition students' cultural competence and to identify areas for future education initiatives in dietetic education that could ultimately improve dietitians' cultural competence. A mixed-methods study was conducted using a 24-item questionnaire that was administered to students enrolled in third- and fourth-year undergraduate nutrition classes (n = 133). In total, 115 questionnaires were analyzed for quantitative data, and 109 were analyzed for qualitative data. The students scored an overall medium-high level of cultural competence. Out of the 5 areas examined (skills, attitudes, awareness, desires, knowledge), students' multicultural knowledge scores were the lowest. It was found that a lower number of barriers to learning about other cultures were significantly associated with a higher overall cultural competence score, and taking a course in cultural foods significantly increased the students' knowledge and overall cultural competence (P ≤ 0.05). The qualitative data found that students felt the cultural competence curriculum had gaps and identified several ideas for improvement. In conclusion, this research data provides novel insights into the cultural competence of Canadian dietetic students and additionally supports future research and curriculum development to enhance cultural competence.

The Future Starts Now

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walton, Mark

2008-01-01

Reading "Learning for the Future," 15 years since it was first published, it is instructive to see what has changed and what has remained more or less the same. The years following the Rio Earth Summit saw the proliferation of a great deal of local debate and community-level activity to promote sustainable development, often under the…

Capability and dependency in the Newcastle 85+ cohort study. Projections of future care needs.

PubMed

Jagger, Carol; Collerton, Joanna C; Davies, Karen; Kingston, Andrew; Robinson, Louise A; Eccles, Martin P; von Zglinicki, Thomas; Martin-Ruiz, Carmen; James, Oliver F W; Kirkwood, Tom B L; Bond, John

2011-05-04

Little is known of the capabilities of the oldest old, the fastest growing age group in the population. We aimed to estimate capability and dependency in a cohort of 85 year olds and to project future demand for care. Structured interviews at age 85 with 841 people born in 1921 and living in Newcastle and North Tyneside, UK who were permanently registered with participating general practices. Measures of capability included were self-reported activities of daily living (ADL), timed up and go test (TUG), standardised mini-mental state examination (SMMSE), and assessment of urinary continence in order to classify interval-need dependency. To project future demand for care the proportion needing 24-hour care was applied to the 2008 England and Wales population projections of those aged 80 years and over by gender. Of participants, 62% (522/841) were women, 77% (651/841) lived in standard housing, 13% (106/841) in sheltered housing and 10% (84/841) in a care home. Overall, 20% (165/841) reported no difficulty with any of the ADLs. Men were more capable in performing ADLs and more independent than women. TUG validated self-reported ADLs. When classified by 'interval of need' 41% (332/810) were independent, 39% (317/810) required help less often than daily, 12% (94/810) required help at regular times of the day and 8% (67/810) required 24-hour care. Of care-home residents, 94% (77/82) required daily help or 24-hour care. Future need for 24-hour care for people aged 80 years or over in England and Wales is projected to increase by 82% from 2010 to 2030 with a demand for 630,000 care-home places by 2030. This analysis highlights the diversity of capability and levels of dependency in this cohort. A remarkably high proportion remain independent, particularly men. However a significant proportion of this population require 24-hour care at home or in care homes. Projections for the next 20 years suggest substantial increases in the number requiring 24-hour care due to

Capability and dependency in the Newcastle 85+ cohort study. Projections of future care needs

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Little is known of the capabilities of the oldest old, the fastest growing age group in the population. We aimed to estimate capability and dependency in a cohort of 85 year olds and to project future demand for care. Methods Structured interviews at age 85 with 841 people born in 1921 and living in Newcastle and North Tyneside, UK who were permanently registered with participating general practices. Measures of capability included were self-reported activities of daily living (ADL), timed up and go test (TUG), standardised mini-mental state examination (SMMSE), and assessment of urinary continence in order to classify interval-need dependency. To project future demand for care the proportion needing 24-hour care was applied to the 2008 England and Wales population projections of those aged 80 years and over by gender. Results Of participants, 62% (522/841) were women, 77% (651/841) lived in standard housing, 13% (106/841) in sheltered housing and 10% (84/841) in a care home. Overall, 20% (165/841) reported no difficulty with any of the ADLs. Men were more capable in performing ADLs and more independent than women. TUG validated self-reported ADLs. When classified by 'interval of need' 41% (332/810) were independent, 39% (317/810) required help less often than daily, 12% (94/810) required help at regular times of the day and 8% (67/810) required 24-hour care. Of care-home residents, 94% (77/82) required daily help or 24-hour care. Future need for 24-hour care for people aged 80 years or over in England and Wales is projected to increase by 82% from 2010 to 2030 with a demand for 630,000 care-home places by 2030. Conclusions This analysis highlights the diversity of capability and levels of dependency in this cohort. A remarkably high proportion remain independent, particularly men. However a significant proportion of this population require 24-hour care at home or in care homes. Projections for the next 20 years suggest substantial increases in the

Developing the International Business Curriculum: Results and Implications of a Delphi Study on the Futures of Teaching and Learning in International Business

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zettinig, Peter; Vincze, Zsuzsanna

2008-01-01

This article presents the results of a Delphi study concerning the futures of teaching and learning in International Business (IB), a topic that has been receiving a lot of discussion during recent years. Based on our findings we identify two dimensions which may be at the core and instrumental for developing the value proposition of IB. The first…

Response of Groundwater Recharge to Potential Future Climate Change in the Grand River Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jyrkama, M. I.; Sykes, J. F.

2004-05-01

The Grand River watershed is situated in south-western Ontario, draining an area of nearly 7000 square kilometres into Lake Erie. Approximately eighty percent of the population in the watershed derive their drinking water from groundwater sources. Quantifying the recharge input to the groundwater system and the impact of climate variability due to climate change is, therefore, essential for ensuring the quantity and sustainability of the watershed's drinking water resources in the future. The primary goal of this study is to investigate the impact of potential future climate changes on groundwater recharge in the Grand River watershed. The physically based hydrologic model HELP3 is used in conjunction with GIS to simulate the past conditions and future changes in evapotranspiration, potential surface runoff, and groundwater recharge rates as a result of projected changes in the regions climate. The climate change projections are based on the general predictions reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001. Forty years of daily historical weather data are used as the reference condition. The impact of climate change on the hydrologic cycle over a forty year study period is modelled by perturbing the HELP3 model input parameters using predicted future changes in precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation. The changes in land use and vegetation cover over time were not considered in the study. The results of the study indicate that the overall simulated rate of groundwater recharge is predicted to increase in the watershed as a result of the projected future climate change. Warmer winter temperatures will reduce the extent and duration of ground frost and shift the springmelt from spring toward winter months, allowing more water to infiltrate into the ground. This results in decreased surface runoff, higher infiltration, and subsequently increased groundwater recharge. The predicted higher intensity and frequency of future

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 4: Bulk Electric Power Systems: Operations and Transmission Planning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Milligan, M.; Ela, E.; Hein, J.

2012-06-01

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a futuremore » through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%-90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).« less

Middle School Girls' Envisioned Future in Computing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Friend, Michelle

2015-01-01

Experience is necessary but not sufficient to cause girls to envision a future career in computing. This study investigated the experiences and attitudes of girls who had taken three years of mandatory computer science classes in an all-girls setting in middle school, measured at the end of eighth grade. The one third of participants who were open…

A feasibility study for an International Year of Landcare

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mutota, E.; Arnalds, A.

2009-04-01

Human-induced activities place enormous pressures on the land worldwide, creating competition and conflict, and suboptimal use of the land. Climate change, loss of biodiversity and land degradation leads to decreasing productivity, food and water shortages, and reduced economic benefits, among others. In order to address these challenges and achieve sustainability goals, the need to change the way global resources are being utilized is crucial. A holistic and integrated community-based approach such as Landcare could be a viable approach to meet this worldwide challenge. Landcare is about committed people working together on land rehabilitation and restoration projects at the local level, transforming attitudes and stimulating new ideas among land users, generating support and building partnerships between and among local communities, governments and the private sector. Landcare initiatives have grown in a number of countries where success stories of actions on the ground clearly show the wider application of the Landcare approach in resolving many of the world's environmental problems and livelihood challenges. However, the potential of Landcare have not yet been widely exploited on a scale that really matters—as local actions build up towards global progress, there is more scope for unified efforts towards a global Landcare movement. Following the recommendation given at the International Forum on Soils, Society and Global Change in 2007 in Iceland (http://www.iisd.ca/YMB/SDFSS/), an International Year of Landcare should be established. Such a year would bring into focus efforts to build local capacity and share knowledge and experiences between provinces, countries and continents on Landcare. Additionally, holding a year concerned with Landcare would greatly contribute to the attainment of the Millennium Development Goals, the UN environmental conventions and many other sustainability goals. Our study supports the notion that Landcare offers a robust platform

Predicting Family Poverty and Other Disadvantaged Conditions for Child Rearing from Childhood Aggression and Social Withdrawal: A 30-Year Longitudinal Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Serbin, Lisa A.; Temcheff, Caroline E.; Cooperman, Jessica M.; Stack, Dale M.; Ledingham, Jane; Schwartzman, Alex E.

2011-01-01

This 30-year longitudinal study examined pathways from problematic childhood behavior patterns to future disadvantaged conditions for family environment and child rearing in adulthood. Participants were mothers (n = 328) and fathers (n = 222) with lower income backgrounds participating in the ongoing Concordia Longitudinal Risk Project. Structural…

Structural Peculiarities of Social Mental Abilities of Future Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yermentayevaa, Ardakh Rizabekovna; Kenzhebayeva, Kundyz Serikovna; Umirbekova, Akerke Nurlanbekovna; Aubakirova, Zhanat Kanashovna; Iskakova, Akmaral Bakytbekovna

2016-01-01

The problem of social intelligence of researchers has attracted attention in recent years. Social intelligence is one of the most important characteristics of teachers. The aim of this research was to study features of structure of social intelligence of future teachers. The respondents in this study were selected 360 students of pedagogical…

Web-Based and Mobile Delivery of an Episodic Future Thinking Intervention for Overweight and Obese Families: A Feasibility Study.

PubMed

Sze, Yan Yan; Daniel, Tinuke Oluyomi; Kilanowski, Colleen K; Collins, R Lorraine; Epstein, Leonard H

2015-12-16

The bias toward immediate gratification is associated with maladaptive eating behaviors and has been cross-sectionally and prospectively related to obesity. Engaging in episodic future thinking, which involves mental self-projection to pre-experience future events, reduces this bias and energy intake in overweight/obese adults and children. To examine how episodic future thinking can be incorporated into clinical interventions, a Web-based system was created to provide training for adults and children in their everyday lives. Our study examined the technical feasibility, usability, and acceptability of a Web-based system that is accessible by mobile devices and adapts episodic future thinking for delivery in family-based obesity interventions. We recruited 20 parent-child dyads (N=40) from the surrounding community and randomized to episodic future thinking versus a nutritional information thinking control to test the feasibility of a 4-week Web-based intervention. Parents were 44.1 (SD 7.8) years of age with BMI of 34.2 (SD 6.8) kg/m(2). Children were 11.0 (SD 1.3) years of age with BMI percentile of 96.0 (SD 1.8). Families met weekly with a case manager for 4 weeks and used the system daily. Adherence was collected through the Web-based system, and perceived acceptance of the Web-based system was assessed postintervention. Measurements of body composition and dietary intake were collected at baseline and after the 4 weeks of intervention. All 20 families completed the intervention and attended all sessions. Results showed parents and children had high adherence to the Web-based system and perceived it to be easy to use, useful, and helpful. No differences between conditions were found in adherence for parents (P=.65) or children (P=.27). In addition, results suggest that basic nutrition information along with episodic future thinking delivered through our Web-based system may reduce energy intake and weight. We showed that our Web-based system is an accepted

Web-Based and Mobile Delivery of an Episodic Future Thinking Intervention for Overweight and Obese Families: A Feasibility Study

PubMed Central

Daniel, Tinuke Oluyomi; Kilanowski, Colleen K; Collins, R Lorraine

2015-01-01

Background The bias toward immediate gratification is associated with maladaptive eating behaviors and has been cross-sectionally and prospectively related to obesity. Engaging in episodic future thinking, which involves mental self-projection to pre-experience future events, reduces this bias and energy intake in overweight/obese adults and children. To examine how episodic future thinking can be incorporated into clinical interventions, a Web-based system was created to provide training for adults and children in their everyday lives. Objective Our study examined the technical feasibility, usability, and acceptability of a Web-based system that is accessible by mobile devices and adapts episodic future thinking for delivery in family-based obesity interventions. Methods We recruited 20 parent-child dyads (N=40) from the surrounding community and randomized to episodic future thinking versus a nutritional information thinking control to test the feasibility of a 4-week Web-based intervention. Parents were 44.1 (SD 7.8) years of age with BMI of 34.2 (SD 6.8) kg/m2. Children were 11.0 (SD 1.3) years of age with BMI percentile of 96.0 (SD 1.8). Families met weekly with a case manager for 4 weeks and used the system daily. Adherence was collected through the Web-based system, and perceived acceptance of the Web-based system was assessed postintervention. Measurements of body composition and dietary intake were collected at baseline and after the 4 weeks of intervention. Results All 20 families completed the intervention and attended all sessions. Results showed parents and children had high adherence to the Web-based system and perceived it to be easy to use, useful, and helpful. No differences between conditions were found in adherence for parents (P=.65) or children (P=.27). In addition, results suggest that basic nutrition information along with episodic future thinking delivered through our Web-based system may reduce energy intake and weight. Conclusions We

Future anthropogenic pollutant emissions in a Mediterranean port city with emphasis on the maritime sector emissions - Study of the impact on the city air quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liora, Natalia; Poupkou, Anastasia; Markakis, Konstantinos; Giannaros, Theodoros; Karagiannidis, Athanasios; Melas, Dimitrios

2013-04-01

The aim of this study is the estimation of the future emissions in the area of the large urban center of Thessaloniki (Greece) with emphasis on the emissions originated from the maritime sector within the port area of the city which are presented in detail. In addition, the contribution of the future anthropogenic emissions to atmospheric pollution levels in Thessaloniki focusing on PM levels is studied. A 2km spatial resolution anthropogenic gaseous and particulate matter emission inventory has been compiled for the port city of Thessaloniki for the year 2010 with the anthropogenic emission model MOSESS, developed by Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki. MOSESS was used for the estimation of emissions from several emission sources (road transport, central heating, industries, maritime sector etc) while the natural emission model NEMO was implemented for the calculation of dust, sea salt and biogenic emissions. Maritime emissions originated from the various processes inside the area of the port (harbor operations such as stockpiles, loading/unloading operations, machineries etc) as well as from the maritime transport sector including passenger ships, cargo shipping, inland waterways vessels (e.g. pleasure crafts) and fish catching ships. Ship emissions were estimated for the three operation modes; cruising, maneuvering and hotelling. For the calculation of maritime emissions, the activity data used were provided by local and national authorities (e.g.Thessaloniki Port Authority S.A.). Pollutant anthropogenic emissions were projected to the year 2020. The emissions from all the anthropogenic sources except for the maritime sector were projected using factors provided by the GAINS model. Future emissions from the maritime activities were estimated on the basis of the future activity data provided by the Port Authority and of the legislation for shipping in the future. Future maritime emissions are determined by the vessels

Lunar Lander project: A study on future manned missions to the Moon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1966-01-01

This project is based on designing a small lunar probe which will conduct research relating to future manned missions to the moon. The basic design calls for two experiments to be run. The first of these experiments is an enclosed environment section which will be exposed to solar radiation while on the moon. The purpose of this experiment is to determine the effect of radiation on an enclosed environment and how different shielding materials can be used to moderate this effect. The eight compartments will have the following covering materials: glass, polarized glass, plexiglass, polyurethane, and boron impregnated versions of the polyurethane and plexiglass. The enclosed atmosphere will be sampled by a mass spectrometer to determine elemental breakdown of its primary constituents. This is needed so that an accurate atmospheric processing system can be designed for a manned mission. The second experiment is a seismic study of the moon. A small penetrating probe will be shot into the lunar surface and data will be collected onboard the lander by an electronic seismograph which will store the data in the data storage unit for retrieval and transmission once every twenty-three hours. The project is designed to last ten years with possible extended life for an additional nine years at which point power requirements prevent proper functioning of the various systems.

Motivation and future temporal orientation: a test of the self-handicapping hypothesis.

PubMed

Lennings, C J

1999-06-01

Self-handicapping motivation refers to the likelihood a person will project personal ambition into the future, make a pessimistic judgement, and then mobilise effort in the present to avoid an anticipated negative outcome. It should, therefore, be a correlate of future time perspective. This study showed for a sample of 120 first-year students that, whilst future time perspective did strongly predict scores on a measure of self-handicapping motivation, neither variable was a useful predictor of outcome.

[Studying of life's quality changes among children of the first three year of life with visual analyzer's congenital pathology as instrument of their social adaptation's formation in the future became a research objective].

PubMed

Medvedovska, Nataliia V; Bukhanovska, Tetiana M; Shevchyk, Anatolii A

The study of the composite qualities of life is an important component of the quality of provided medical aid. The way of our investigation that was chosen by us, the quality of life of the children of first years of life with the congenital pathology of vision arises the significant problem of assessment of its changes, because children of these ages can't take part in an interview and we adapted the standard questionnaire "Children Visual Function Questionnaire" (CVFQ) with its help the components of quality of the children of first years of life assess their parents. Studying of life's quality changes among children of the first three year of life with visual analyzer's congenital pathology as instrument of their social adaptation's formation in the future became a research objective. Out-patient and polyclinic units of Kyiv's healthcare institutions in which the medical care is provided to children of the first three years of life, particularly with congenital ophthalmic pathology (3 institutions) were scientific base of a research. We have been used the adapted version of the standardized questionnaire of Children's Visual Function Questionnaire (CVFQ) Felius et al were primary material. (2004) - 498 questionnaires, from them 398 of the main group and 100 of control. The purpose of a research required using the complex of research methods, a basis for which is a system approach, namely: medico-statistical and sociological (the respondents were informed about the purpose and research problems and timely gave the oral voluntary agreement in anonymous poll before the filling of questionnaires) methods. The results of a research has established that parents of children from control group have estimated the general condition of children's vision totally in 89,75 ± 1,33 points vs 60,25 ± 1,96 points according to a total score of children's parents from the main group (the difference was 32,87%, at р<0,001). In general, the total number of points was 64,89 ± 1

Sickness Absence and Disability Pension After Breast Cancer Diagnosis: A 5-Year Nationwide Cohort Study.

PubMed

Kvillemo, Pia; Mittendorfer-Rutz, Ellenor; Bränström, Richard; Nilsson, Kerstin; Alexanderson, Kristina

2017-06-20

Purpose To explore future diagnosis-specific sickness absence and disability pension among women with breast cancer compared with women without breast cancer. Also, to examine associations with disease-related and sociodemographic factors among those with breast cancer. Methods Longitudinal register data on 3,547 women living in Sweden (age 20 to 65 years) who were first diagnosed with breast cancer in 2005, and a matched comparison cohort (n = 14,188), were analyzed for the annual prevalence of diagnosis-specific sickness absence and disability pension over 5 years. Logistic regressions were used to explore associations of disease-related and sociodemographic factors with future sickness absence and disability pension among women with breast cancer. Results Immediately after being diagnosed with breast cancer, the proportion of women with sickness absence was high but decreased continuously from the 1st through 5th year after diagnosis (71%, 40%, 30%, 22%, and 19%, respectively). In comparison, the range for women without breast cancer was 17% to 11%, respectively. The higher prevalence of sickness absence after breast cancer was mainly a result of breast cancer diagnosis, not a mental diagnosis, or other somatic diagnoses. Advanced cancer at diagnosis, > 90 days sickness absence before diagnosis, low education, and being born outside Sweden were associated with higher odds ratios for sickness absence and disability pension (odds ratio range, 1.40 to 6.45). Conclusion The level of sickness absence increased substantially in women with breast cancer during the first year after diagnosis and approached the level of breast cancer-free women in the following years; however, even in the first year, most women were not on sickness absence for a substantial time, and even in high-risk groups, many were not on sickness absence or disability pension in the following years. Information about relatively low future sickness absence and disability pension levels can be used by

Growth of a 45-year-old ponderosa pine plantation: An Arizona case study

Treesearch

Peter F. Ffolliott; Gerald J. Gottfried; Cody L. Stropki; L. J. Heidmann

2008-01-01

Information on the growth of forest plantations is necessary for planning of ecosystem-based management of the plantations. This information is also useful in validating or refining computer simulators that estimate plantation growth into the future. Such growth information has been obtained from a 45-year-old ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa)...

Early menopause predicts future coronary heart disease and stroke: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

PubMed

Wellons, Melissa; Ouyang, Pamela; Schreiner, Pamela J; Herrington, David M; Vaidya, Dhananjay

2012-10-01

Cardiovascular disease is the number one killer of women. Identifying women at risk of cardiovascular disease has tremendous public health importance. Early menopause is associated with increased cardiovascular disease events in some predominantly white populations, but not consistently. Our objective was to determine if self-reported early menopause (menopause at an age <46 y) identifies women as at risk for future coronary heart disease or stroke. The study population came from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, a longitudinal, ethnically diverse cohort study of US men and women aged 45 to 84 years enrolled in 2000-2002 and followed up until 2008. The association between a personal history of early menopause (either natural menopause or surgical removal of ovaries at an age <46 y) and future coronary heart disease and stroke was assessed in 2,509 women (ages 45-84 y; 987 white, 331 Chinese, 641 black, and 550 Hispanic) from the Multi-ethnic Study Atherosclerosis who were free of cardiovascular disease at baseline. Of 2,509 women, 693 (28%) reported either surgical or natural early menopause. In survival curves, women with early menopause had worse coronary heart disease and stroke-free survival (log rank P = 0.008 and P = 0.0158). In models adjusted for age, race/ethnicity, Multi-ethnic Study Atherosclerosis site, and traditional cardiovascular disease risk factors, this risk for coronary heart disease and stroke remained (hazard ratio, 2.08; 95% CI, 1.17-3.70; and hazard ratio, 2.19; 95% CI, 1.11-4.32, respectively). Early menopause is positively associated with coronary heart disease and stroke in a multiethnic cohort, independent of traditional cardiovascular disease risk factors.

How have researchers studied multiracial populations? A content and methodological review of 20 years of research.

PubMed

Charmaraman, Linda; Woo, Meghan; Quach, Ashley; Erkut, Sumru

2014-07-01

The U.S. Census shows that the racial-ethnic makeup of over 9 million people (2.9% of the total population) who self-identified as multiracial is extremely diverse. Each multiracial subgroup has unique social and political histories that may lead to distinct societal perceptions, economic situations, and health outcomes. Despite the increasing academic and media interest in multiracial individuals, there are methodological and definitional challenges in studying the population, resulting in conflicting representations in the literature. This content and methods review of articles on multiracial populations provides a comprehensive understanding of which multiracial populations have been included in research and how they have been studied, both to recognize emerging research and to identify gaps for guiding future research on this complex but increasingly visible population. We examine 125 U.S.-based peer-reviewed journal articles published over the past 20 years (1990 to 2009) containing 133 separate studies focused on multiracial individuals, primarily from the fields of psychology, sociology, social work, education, and public health. Findings include (a) descriptive data regarding the sampling strategies, methodologies, and demographic characteristics of studies, including which multiracial subgroups are most studied, gender, age range, region of country, and socioeconomic status; (b) major thematic trends in research topics concerning multiracial populations; and (c) implications and recommendations for future studies.

Past and future changes in Canadian boreal wildfire activity.

PubMed

Girardin, Martin P; Mudelsee, Manfred

2008-03-01

Climate change in Canadian boreal forests is usually associated with increased drought severity and fire activity. However, future fire activity could well be within the range of values experienced during the preindustrial period. In this study, we contrast 21st century forecasts of fire occurrence (FireOcc, number of large forest fires per year) in the southern part of the Boreal Shield, Canada, with the historical range of the past 240 years statistically reconstructed from tree-ring width data. First, a historical relationship between drought indices and FireOcc is developed over the calibration period 1959-1998. Next, together with seven tree-ring based drought reconstructions covering the last 240 years and simulations from the CGCM3 and ECHAM4 global climate models, the calibration model is used to estimate past (prior to 1959) and future (post 1999) FireOcc. Last, time-dependent changes in mean FireOcc and in the occurrence rate of extreme fire years are evaluated with the aid of advanced methods of statistical time series analysis. Results suggest that the increase in precipitation projected toward the end of the 21st century will be insufficient to compensate for increasing temperatures and will be insufficient to maintain potential evapotranspiration at current levels. Limited moisture availability would cause FireOcc to increase as well. But will future FireOcc exceed its historical range? The results obtained from our approach suggest high probabilities of seeing future FireOcc reach the upper limit of the historical range. Predictions, which are essentially weighed on northwestern Ontario and eastern boreal Manitoba, indicate that, by 2061-2100, typical FireOcc could increase by more than 34% when compared with the past two centuries. Increases in fire activity as projected by this study could negatively affect the implementation in the next century of forest management inspired by historical or natural disturbance dynamics. This approach is indeed

Prediction of future subsurface temperatures in Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Y.; Kim, S. K.; Jeong, J.; SHIN, E.

2017-12-01

The importance of climate change has been increasingly recognized because it has had the huge amount of impact on social, economic, and environmental aspect. For the reason, paleoclimate change has been studied intensively using different geological tools including borehole temperatures and future surface air temperatures (SATs) have been predicted for the local areas and the globe. Future subsurface temperatures can have also enormous impact on various areas and be predicted by an analytical method or a numerical simulation using measured and predicted SATs, and thermal diffusivity data of rocks. SATs have been measured at 73 meteorological observatories since 1907 in Korea and predicted at same locations up to the year of 2100. Measured SATs at the Seoul meteorological observatory increased by about 3.0 K from the year of 1907 to the present. Predicted SATs have 4 different scenarios depending on mainly CO2 concentration and national action plan on climate change in the future. The hottest scenario shows that SATs in Korea will increase by about 5.0 K from the present to the year of 2100. In addition, thermal diffusivity values have been measured on 2,903 rock samples collected from entire Korea. Data pretreatment based on autocorrelation analysis was conducted to control high frequency noise in thermal diffusivity data. Finally, future subsurface temperatures in Korea were predicted up to the year of 2100 by a FEM simulation code (COMSOL Multiphysics) using measured and predicted SATs, and thermal diffusivity data in Korea. At Seoul, the results of predictions show that subsurface temperatures will increase by about 5.4 K, 3.0 K, 1.5 K, and 0.2 K from the present to 2050 and then by about 7.9 K, 4.8 K, 2.5 K, and 0.5 K to 2100 at the depths of 10 m, 50 m, 100 m, and 200 m, respectively. We are now proceeding numerical simulations for subsurface temperature predictions for 73 locations in Korea.

Associations Among Individuals' Perceptions of Future Time, Individual Resources, and Subjective Well-Being in Old Age.

PubMed

Hoppmann, Christiane A; Infurna, Frank J; Ram, Nilam; Gerstorf, Denis

2017-05-01

Perceptions of future time are of key interest to aging research because of their implications for subjective well-being. Interestingly, perceptions about future time are only moderately associated with age when looking at the second half of life, pointing to a vast heterogeneity in future time perceptions among older adults. We examine associations between future time perceptions, age, and subjective well-being across two studies, including moderations by individual resources. Using data from the Berlin Aging Study (N = 516; Mage = 85 years), we link one operationalization (subjective nearness to death) and age to subjective well-being. Using Health and Retirement Study data (N = 2,596; Mage = 77 years), we examine associations of another future time perception indicator (subjective future life expectancy) and age with subjective well-being. Consistent across studies, perceptions of limited time left were associated with poorer subjective well-being (lower life satisfaction and positive affect; more negative affect and depressive symptoms). Importantly, individual resources moderated future time perception-subjective well-being associations with those of better health exhibiting reduced future time perception-subjective well-being associations. We discuss our findings in the context of the Model of Strength and Vulnerability Integration. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Future Time Perspective in the Work Context: A Systematic Review of Quantitative Studies.

PubMed

Henry, Hélène; Zacher, Hannes; Desmette, Donatienne

2017-01-01

A core construct in the lifespan theory of socioemotional selectivity, future time perspective (FTP) refers to individuals' perceptions of their remaining time in life. Its adaptation to the work context, occupational future time perspective (OFTP), entails workers' perceptions of remaining time and opportunities in their careers. Over the past decade, several quantitative studies have investigated antecedents and consequences of general FTP and OFTP in the work context (i.e., FTP at work). We systematically review and critically discuss this literature on general FTP ( k = 17 studies) and OFTP ( k = 16 studies) and highlight implications for future research and practice. Results of our systematic review show that, in addition to its strong negative relationship with age, FTP at work is also associated with other individual (e.g., personality traits) and contextual variables (e.g., job characteristics). Moreover, FTP at work has been shown to mediate and moderate relationships of individual and contextual antecedents with occupational well-being, as well as motivational and behavioral outcomes. As a whole, findings suggest that FTP at work is an important variable in the field of work and aging, and that future research should improve the ways in which FTP at work is measured and results on FTP at work are reported.

Future Time Perspective in the Work Context: A Systematic Review of Quantitative Studies

PubMed Central

Henry, Hélène; Zacher, Hannes; Desmette, Donatienne

2017-01-01

A core construct in the lifespan theory of socioemotional selectivity, future time perspective (FTP) refers to individuals’ perceptions of their remaining time in life. Its adaptation to the work context, occupational future time perspective (OFTP), entails workers’ perceptions of remaining time and opportunities in their careers. Over the past decade, several quantitative studies have investigated antecedents and consequences of general FTP and OFTP in the work context (i.e., FTP at work). We systematically review and critically discuss this literature on general FTP (k = 17 studies) and OFTP (k = 16 studies) and highlight implications for future research and practice. Results of our systematic review show that, in addition to its strong negative relationship with age, FTP at work is also associated with other individual (e.g., personality traits) and contextual variables (e.g., job characteristics). Moreover, FTP at work has been shown to mediate and moderate relationships of individual and contextual antecedents with occupational well-being, as well as motivational and behavioral outcomes. As a whole, findings suggest that FTP at work is an important variable in the field of work and aging, and that future research should improve the ways in which FTP at work is measured and results on FTP at work are reported. PMID:28400741

Attributions, future time perspective and career maturity in nursing undergraduates: correlational study design.

PubMed

Cheng, Cheng; Yang, Liu; Chen, Yuxia; Zou, Huijing; Su, Yonggang; Fan, Xiuzhen

2016-01-25

Career maturity is an important parameter as nursing undergraduates prepare for their future careers. However, little is known regarding the relationships between attributions, future time perspective and career maturity among nursing undergraduates. The purpose of this study was to investigate the degree of career maturity and its relationship with attributions and future time perspective. A cross-sectional survey was designed. This survey was administered to 431 Chinese nursing undergraduates. Independent-sample t-tests and one-way ANOVA were performed to examine the mean differences between categories of binary and categorical demographic characteristics, respectively. Pearson correlations and multiple linear regressions were used to test the relationships between attributions, future time perspective and career maturity. The degree of career maturity was moderate among nursing undergraduates and that internal attributions of academic achievement, future efficacy and future purpose consciousness were positively associated with career maturity (all p < 0.01). These three factors accounted for 37.6% of the variance in career maturity (adjusted R(2) = 0.376). These findings might assist nursing educators and career counselors to improve nursing undergraduate career maturity by elucidating the imperative roles of internal attributions and future time perspective and to facilitate their transition from school to clinical practice.

The Educational Psychologist in the Early Years: Current Practice and Future Directions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shannon, Deborah; Posada, Susan

2007-01-01

Following suggestions for updated models of service within the early years educational psychologist (EP) role, the study aimed to provide exploratory research evidence of current models of service delivery and EP attitudes. Questionnaires were completed by 32 EPs. Interviews were conducted with three EPs. Quantitative data obtained were analysed…

Future Exploration and Utilization of Outer Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dryden, H. L.

1960-01-01

The assessment of the future of astronautics is the task of a prophet, a profession not recognized as an established branch of science. Prophecy is an art rather than a profession and there are no established methods of procedure. Knowledge of specific developments in progress and past experience give a reasonable basis for extrapolating a few years ahead. For the more distant future, imagination, intuition, and faith are the only tools, and these are inevitably colored by the nature and environment of the prophet. He may be naturally an optimist or a pessimist. The seeker for financial support and the salesman will see the future very differently than the engineer responsible for the success of launching vehicles on difficult missions. Some of the problems of predicting future developments may be appreciated by looking backward in time by 52 years.

Psychosocial Risk Factors for Future Adolescent Suicide Attempts.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lewinsohn, Peter M.; And Others

1994-01-01

Examined psychosocial risk factors for attempting suicide in 1,508 high school students, 26 of whom attempted suicide during year following entry into study. Strongest predictors of future suicide attempt were history of past attempt, current suicidal ideation and depression, recent attempt by friend, low self-esteem, and having been born to…

Forecasting future prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Syria.

PubMed

Al Ali, Radwan; Mzayek, Fawaz; Rastam, Samer; M Fouad, Fouad; O'Flaherty, Martin; Capewell, Simon; Maziak, Wasim

2013-05-25

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is increasingly becoming a major public health problem worldwide. Estimating the future burden of diabetes is instrumental to guide the public health response to the epidemic. This study aims to project the prevalence of T2DM among adults in Syria over the period 2003-2022 by applying a modelling approach to the country's own data. Future prevalence of T2DM in Syria was estimated among adults aged 25 years and older for the period 2003-2022 using the IMPACT Diabetes Model (a discrete-state Markov model). According to our model, the prevalence of T2DM in Syria is projected to double in the period between 2003 and 2022 (from 10% to 21%). The projected increase in T2DM prevalence is higher in men (148%) than in women (93%). The increase in prevalence of T2DM is expected to be most marked in people younger than 55 years especially the 25-34 years age group. The future projections of T2DM in Syria put it amongst countries with the highest levels of T2DM worldwide. It is estimated that by 2022 approximately a fifth of the Syrian population aged 25 years and older will have T2DM.

Understanding Temporality and Future Orientation for Young Women in the Senior Year

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Duggan, Shane

2017-01-01

This article considers how time is imagined, lived, and desired in young women's lives as they undertake their final year of secondary school studies in Melbourne, Australia. It argues that economic and competitive imperatives have intensified for many young people in recent times, manifesting in an educational apparatus that increasingly defines…

Bringing the Future Within Reach: Celebrating 75 Years of the NASA John H. Glenn Research Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arrighi, Robert S.

2016-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Glenn Research Center in Cleveland, Ohio, has been making the future for 75 years. The center's work with aircraft engines, high-energy fuels, communications technology, electric propulsion, energy conversion and storage, and materials and structures has been, and continues to be, crucial to both the Agency and the region. Glenn has partnered with industry, universities, and other agencies to continually advance technologies that are propelling the nation's aerospace community into the future. Nonetheless these continued accomplishments would not be possible without the legacy of our first three decades of research, which led to over one hundred R&D 100 Awards, three Robert J. Collier Trophies, and an Emmy. Glenn, which is located in Cleveland, Ohio, is 1 of 10 NASA field centers, and 1 of only 3 that stem from an earlier research organization-the National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics (NACA). Glenn began operation in 1942 as the NACA Aircraft Engine Research Laboratory (AERL). In 1947 the NACA renamed the lab the Flight Propulsion Laboratory to reflect the expansion of the research. In September 1948, following the death of the NACA's Director of Aeronautics, George Lewis, the NACA rededicated the lab as the Lewis Flight Propulsion Laboratory. On 1 October 1958, the lab was incorporated into the new NASA space agency and was renamed the NASA Lewis Research Center. Following John Glenn's return to space on the space shuttle, on 1 March 1999 the center name was changed once again, becoming the NASA John H. Glenn Research Center.

Twenty-five years of the WHO vaccines prequalification programme (1987-2012): lessons learned and future perspectives.

PubMed

Dellepiane, Nora; Wood, David

2015-01-01

The World Health Organization (WHO) vaccines prequalification programme was established in 1987. It is a service provided to United Nations procurement agencies to ensure that the vaccines supplied through these agencies are consistently safe and effective under conditions of use in national immunization programmes. This review describes the purpose and aims of the programme, its evolution during 25 years of existence, its added value, and its role in the context of the WHO strategy to ensure the global availability of vaccines of assured quality. The rationale for changes introduced during the implementation of the programme is provided. The paper also discusses the resources involved, both human and financial, its performance, strengths and weaknesses and steps taken to maximize its efficiency. This historical perspective is used to inform proposed future changes to the service. Copyright © 2013 World Health Organization. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Federal Highway Administration 100-year coating study.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-11-01

The Federal Highway Administration 100-Year Coating Study was initiated in August 2009 to search for durable : coating systems at a reasonable cost. The objective of the study was to identify and evaluate coating materials that can : provide 100 year...

Are predictors of future suicide attempts and the transition from suicidal ideation to suicide attempts shared or distinct: a 12-month prospective study among patients with depressive disorders.

PubMed

Chan, Lai Fong; Shamsul, Azhar Shah; Maniam, Thambu

2014-12-30

Our study aimed to examine the interplay between clinical and social predictors of future suicide attempt and the transition from suicidal ideation to suicide attempt in depressive disorders. Sixty-six Malaysian inpatients with a depressive disorder were assessed at index admission and within 1 year for suicide attempt, suicidal ideation, depression severity, life event changes, treatment history and relevant clinical and socio-demographic factors. One-fifth of suicidal ideators transitioned to a future suicide attempt. All future attempters (12/66) had prior ideation and 83% of attempters had a prior attempt. The highest risk for transitioning from ideation to attempt was 5 months post-discharge. Single predictor models showed that previous psychiatric hospitalization and ideation severity were shared predictors of future attempt and ideation to attempt transition. Substance use disorders (especially alcohol) predicted future attempt and approached significance for the transition process. Low socio-economic status predicted the transition process while major personal injury/illness predicted future suicide attempt. Past suicide attempt, subjective depression severity and medication compliance predicted only future suicide attempt. The absence of prior suicide attempt did not eliminate the risk of future attempt. Given the limited sample, future larger studies on mechanisms underlying the interactions of such predictors are needed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Past and future of radio occultation studies of planetary atmospheres

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eshleman, Von R.; Hinson, David P.; Tyler, G. Leonard; Lindal, Gunnar F.

1987-01-01

Measurements of radio waves that have propagated through planetary atmospheres have provided exploratory results on atmospheric constituents, structure, dynamics, and ionization for Venus, Mars, Titan, Jupiter, Saturn, and Uranus. Highlights of past results are reviewed in order to define and illustrate the potential of occultation and related radio studies in future planetary missions.

Future Research in Health Information Technology: A Review

PubMed Central

Hemmat, Morteza; Ayatollahi, Haleh; Maleki, Mohammad Reza; Saghafi, Fatemeh

2017-01-01

Introduction Currently, information technology is considered an important tool to improve healthcare services. To adopt the right technologies, policy makers should have adequate information about present and future advances. This study aimed to review and compare studies with a focus on the future of health information technology. Method This review study was completed in 2015. The databases used were Scopus, Web of Science, ProQuest, Ovid Medline, and PubMed. Keyword searches were used to identify papers and materials published between 2000 and 2015. Initially, 407 papers were obtained, and they were reduced to 11 papers at the final stage. The selected papers were described and compared in terms of the country of origin, objective, methodology, and time horizon. Results The papers were divided into two groups: those forecasting the future of health information technology (seven papers) and those providing health information technology foresight (four papers). The results showed that papers related to forecasting the future of health information technology were mostly a literature review, and the time horizon was up to 10 years in most of these studies. In the health information technology foresight group, most of the studies used a combination of techniques, such as scenario building and Delphi methods, and had long-term objectives. Conclusion To make the most of an investment and to improve planning and successful implementation of health information technology, a strategic plan for the future needs to be set. To achieve this aim, methods such as forecasting the future of health information technology and offering health information technology foresight can be applied. The forecasting method is used when the objectives are not very large, and the foresight approach is recommended when large-scale objectives are set to be achieved. In the field of health information technology, the results of foresight studies can help to establish realistic long

Owens Community College: A Case Study on the Effects of Politics, Economics, Social Factors, and Technological Factors on Future Educational Delivery Strategies, Space Needs, and Design

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Paskvan, Brian A.

2011-01-01

The purpose of this case study was to explore the influence of four factors--politics, economics, society, and technology--on educational delivery strategies, space needs, and design at Owens Community College. The future effects of these factors on the college were predicted four to six years from the time the study was conducted. The researcher…

What Next?: Educational Innovation and Philadelphia's School of the Future. Educational Innovations Series

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cullinane, Mary, Ed.; Hess, Frederick M., Ed.

2010-01-01

"What Next?" offers a detailed study of the School of the Future's first three years (2006-2009) revealing what the School of the Future can teach us about high school redesign, public-private partnerships, and the use of technology in school reform. When the school district of Philadelphia teamed up with the Microsoft Corporation in…

Urban Growth Scenarios of a Future MEGA City: Case Study Ahmedabad

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehner, A.; Kraus, V.; Steinnocher, K.

2016-06-01

The study of urban areas and their development focuses on cities, their physical and demographic expansion and the tensions and impacts that go along with urban growth. Especially in developing countries and emerging national economies like India, consistent and up to date information or other planning relevant data all too often is not available. With its Smart Cities Mission, the Indian government places great importance on the future developments of Indian urban areas and pays tribute to the large-scale rural to urban migration. The potentials of urban remote sensing and its contribution to urban planning are discussed and related to the Indian Smart Cities Mission. A case study is presented showing urban remote sensing based information products for the city of Ahmedabad. Resulting urban growth scenarios are presented, hotspots identified and future action alternatives proposed.

Employment Outcome Ten Years after Moderate to Severe Traumatic Brain Injury: A Prospective Cohort Study.

PubMed

Grauwmeijer, Erik; Heijenbrok-Kal, Majanka H; Haitsma, Ian K; Ribbers, Gerard M

2017-09-01

The objective of this prospective cohort study was to evaluate the probability of employment and predictors of employment in patients with moderate- to- severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) over 10-year follow-up. One hundred nine patients (18-67 years) were included with follow-up measurements 3, 6, 12, 18, 24, and 36 months and 10 years post-TBI. Potential predictors of employment probability included patient characteristics, injury severity factors, functional outcome measured at discharge from the hospital with the Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS), Barthel Index (BI), Functional Independence Measure (FIM), and the Functional Assessment Measure (FAM). Forty-eight patients (42%) completed the 10-year follow-up. Three months post-TBI, 12% were employed, which gradually, but significantly, increased to 57% after 2-years follow-up (p < 0.001), followed by a significant decrease to 43% (p = 0.041) after 10 years. Ten years post-TBI, we found that employed persons had less-severe TBI, shorter length of hospital stay (LOS), and higher scores on the GOS, BI, FIM, and FAM at hospital discharge than unemployed persons. No significant differences in age, sex, educational level, living with partner/family or not, pre-injury employment, professional category, psychiatric symptoms, or discharge destination were found. Longitudinal multivariable analysis showed that time, pre-injury employment, FAM, and LOS were independent predictors of employment probability. We concluded that employment probability 10 years after moderate or severe TBI is related to injury severity and pre-injury employment. Future studies on vocational rehabilitation should focus on modifiable factors and take into consideration the effects of national legislation and national labor market forces.

Future Orientation, School Contexts, and Problem Behaviors: A Multilevel Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Pan; Vazsonyi, Alexander T.

2013-01-01

The association between future orientation and problem behaviors has received extensive empirical attention; however, previous work has not considered school contextual influences on this link. Using a sample of N = 9,163 9th to 12th graders (51.0% females) from N = 85 high schools of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, the…

Experience of Future Economists' Self-Study Organization in Foreign Higher Education Institutions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aliyev, Oktay

2016-01-01

The article consolidates information sources on the issues of future economists' self-study organization at foreign universities. There has been carried out the study of approaches to the interpretation of the term "self-study process" in the contemporary scientific thought abroad. There have been specified the productive ideas of…

Self, memory, and imagining the future in a case of psychogenic amnesia.

PubMed

Rathbone, Clare J; Ellis, Judi A; Baker, Ian; Butler, Chris R

2015-01-01

We report a case of psychogenic amnesia and examine the relationships between autobiographical memory impairment, the self, and ability to imagine the future. Case study JH, a 60-year-old male, experienced a 6-year period of pervasive psychogenic amnesia covering all life events from childhood to the age of 53. JH was tested during his amnesic period and again following hypnotherapy and the recovery of his memories. JH's amnesia corresponded with deficits in self-knowledge and imagining the future. Results are discussed with reference to models of self and memory and processes involving remembering and imagining.

Sleep among bereaved caregivers of patients admitted to hospice: a 1-year longitudinal pilot study

PubMed Central

Slåtten, Kari; Saghaug, Elisabeth; Grov, Ellen Karine; Normann, Are Peder; Lee, Kathryn A; Bjorvatn, Bjørn; Gay, Caryl L

2016-01-01

Objectives This pilot study aimed to describe the sleep of partners and other family caregivers prior to and in the first year after a hospice patient's death. The study also evaluated the feasibility of the study protocol and determined the effect sizes in preparation for a full-scale study. Design The pilot study used a longitudinal, descriptive and comparative design. Setting and participants Participants included primary family caregivers of patients admitted to a hospice in Oslo, Norway. Primary outcome Caregiver sleep was measured subjectively with the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI) and objectively using wrist actigraphy for 4 nights and 3 days at three different times: during the hospice stay, and at 6 and 12 months after the patient's death. Results 16 family caregivers (10 partners and 6 other family members) completed the 1-year study protocol. Overall, sleep quality and quantity were stable over time and at each assessment, approximately half of the sample had poor sleep quality, both by self-report and objective measures. However, the sleep trajectories differed significantly over time, with older caregivers (≥65 years) having significantly longer sleep durations than younger caregivers (<65 years). Furthermore, sleep quality also differed over time depending on the caregiver's relationship to the patient, with partner caregivers having significantly worse sleep quality than other family caregivers. Conclusions Caring for a dying family member is known to interfere with sleep, yet little is known about bereaved caregivers. The results of this pilot study demonstrate the feasibility of the longitudinal study protocol and indicate that sleep problems are common for caregivers and continue into the bereavement period, particularly for partner caregivers. The caregiver's relationship to the patient may be an important factor to consider in future studies. PMID:26729383

Parents' concerns about future pregnancy after stillbirth: a qualitative study.

PubMed

Meaney, Sarah; Everard, Claire M; Gallagher, Stephen; O'Donoghue, Keelin

2017-08-01

As stillbirth has a devastating impact, it is imperative to understand the importance of clinical and emotional care after stillbirth and how it influences subsequent pregnancies. The aim of the study was to gain insight into the consideration and planning of a subsequent pregnancy by parents in the weeks following stillbirth. A qualitative semi-structured interview format was utilized. Interpretative phenomenological analysis was employed as the analytic strategy. The recruitment strategy focused on couples whereby the parents of ten stillborn babies were contacted; however, five men declined to participate in the study. The final sample of 15 parents were all Irish: ten of whom were female and five of whom were male. Findings revealed two superordinate themes relating to a subsequent pregnancy after stillbirth: aspirations for future pregnancy and expectations of future care. Parents disclosed how the prospect of a subsequent pregnancy was daunting with fears about the potential loss of another child. Despite these fears, parents' aspirations differed in the days following stillbirth; mothers wished to plan a future pregnancy while fathers were reluctant to consider any pregnancies. Parents were unsure of what to expect in terms of the level of care that would be provided to them in a subsequent pregnancy. Additional appointments at the maternity hospital were considered crucial to provide reassurance during a subsequent pregnancy. These findings underscore the far-reaching and contrasting effects of stillbirth on parents. These complex needs highlight the importance of the multidisciplinary team approach. © 2016 The Authors Health Expectations Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

ALTERNATIVE FUTURES ANALYSIS: A FRAMEWORK FOR COMMUNITY DECISION-MAKING

EPA Science Inventory

Alternative futures analysis is an assessment approach designed to inform community decisions about land and water use. We conducted an alternative futures analysis in Oregon's Willamette River Basin. Three alternative future landscapes for the year 2050 were depicted and compare...

Controlling the Growth of Future LEO Debris Populations with Active Debris Removal

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liou, J.-C.; Johnson, N. L.; Hill, N. M.

2008-01-01

Active debris removal (ADR) was suggested as a potential means to remediate the low Earth orbit (LEO) debris environment as early as the 1980s. The reasons ADR has not become practical are due to its technical difficulties and the high cost associated with the approach. However, as the LEO debris populations continue to increase, ADR may be the only option to preserve the near-Earth environment for future generations. An initial study was completed in 2007 to demonstrate that a simple ADR target selection criterion could be developed to reduce the future debris population growth. The present paper summarizes a comprehensive study based on more realistic simulation scenarios, including fragments generated from the 2007 Fengyun-1C event, mitigation measures, and other target selection options. The simulations were based on the NASA long-term orbital debris projection model, LEGEND. A scenario, where at the end of mission lifetimes, spacecraft and upper stages were moved to 25-year decay orbits, was adopted as the baseline environment for comparison. Different annual removal rates and different ADR target selection criteria were tested, and the resulting 200-year future environment projections were compared with the baseline scenario. Results of this parametric study indicate that (1) an effective removal strategy can be developed based on the mass and collision probability of each object as the selection criterion, and (2) the LEO environment can be stabilized in the next 200 years with an ADR removal rate of five objects per year.

Using Technology in Undergraduate Admission: Current Practices and Future Plans

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lindbeck, Robin; Fodrey, Brian

2009-01-01

The purpose of this study was to identify the current practices and future plans for using technology in admission practices at four-year colleges and universities. This study collected data through an online survey. The survey was largely quantitative but also included several qualitative questions, and focused on 12 broad categories of…

The desirable qualities of future doctors--a study of medical student perceptions.

PubMed

Hurwitz, Steven; Kelly, Brian; Powis, David; Smyth, Robyn; Lewin, Terry

2013-07-01

There is a lack of consensus regarding the qualities possessed by the ideal doctor, and very limited research regarding the views of medical students on these qualities. To investigate the views of commencing medical students regarding the desirable qualities of doctors. A survey containing a set of proposed desirable qualities of doctors identified from the existing literature was completed by 158 first-year medical students. The survey had a 75% response rate. Students rated the individual qualities of empathy, motivation to be a doctor, good verbal communication, ethically sound, integrity and honesty as the most important. A factor analysis identified six categories of qualities: methodical processing, cognitive capacity, people skills, generic work ethic, role certainty and warmth. Significant differences in factor scores were found across subgroups of students (international and domestic students, with and without prior tertiary studies) on the following factors: methodical processing, which was scored highest by domestic students with prior tertiary studies, cognitive capacity, which was scored highest by domestic students without prior tertiary studies and generic work ethic, which was scored highest by international students. Medical students identified a range of desirable personal qualities of a doctor which varied according to student characteristics, including their prior educational experience. Future research aiming to define such desirable qualities should include a broader range of stakeholders, including students at different training levels and institutions.

Materialism, Stress and Health Behaviors among Future Educators

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brouskeli, Vasiliki; Loumakou, Maria

2014-01-01

In this study we investigated materialism among future educators and its relationship with stress and a number of health behaviors. Participants were 228 students (Mean = 20.64 years of age, S.D = 2.571) of the Department of Education Sciences in Early Childhood of the University of Thrace, Greece. The instrument consisted of a short form of the…

SOFIA: A Promising Resource for Future Nova Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helton, L. A.; Sofia Science Team

2014-12-01

The Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy (SOFIA) is a 2.5-m telescope carried on board a Boeing 747-SP aircraft. Optimized for observations from infrared through sub-mm wavelengths, SOFIA observes from an altitude of 37,000 - 45,000 feet, above 99% of the atmospheric water vapor. The Observatory's complement of instruments possesses a broad range of capabilities, many of which are especially well suited for observations of classical novae, recurrent novae, and other cataclysmic variables. Here we present a selection of the instruments available on board SOFIA that may prove to be very useful for future novae studies.

Differences by Sexual Orientation in Expectations About Future Long-Term Care Needs Among Adults 40 to 65 Years Old.

PubMed

Henning-Smith, Carrie; Gonzales, Gilbert; Shippee, Tetyana P

2015-11-01

We examined whether and how lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) adults between 40 and 65 years of age differ from heterosexual adults in long-term care (LTC) expectations. Our data were derived from the 2013 National Health Interview Survey. We used ordered logistic regression to compare the odds of expected future use of LTC among LGB (n = 297) and heterosexual (n = 13 120) adults. We also used logistic regression models to assess the odds of expecting to use specific sources of care. All models controlled for key socioeconomic characteristics. Although LGB adults had greater expectations of needing LTC in the future than their heterosexual counterparts, that association was largely explained by sociodemographic and health differences. After control for these differentials, LGB adults were less likely to expect care from family and more likely to expect to use institutional care in old age. LGB adults may rely more heavily than heterosexual adults on formal systems of care. As the older population continues to diversify, nursing homes and assisted living facilities should work to ensure safety and culturally sensitive best practices for older LGB groups.

Differences by Sexual Orientation in Expectations About Future Long-Term Care Needs Among Adults 40 to 65 Years Old

PubMed Central

Gonzales, Gilbert; Shippee, Tetyana P.

2015-01-01

Objectives. We examined whether and how lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) adults between 40 and 65 years of age differ from heterosexual adults in long-term care (LTC) expectations. Methods. Our data were derived from the 2013 National Health Interview Survey. We used ordered logistic regression to compare the odds of expected future use of LTC among LGB (n = 297) and heterosexual (n = 13 120) adults. We also used logistic regression models to assess the odds of expecting to use specific sources of care. All models controlled for key socioeconomic characteristics. Results. Although LGB adults had greater expectations of needing LTC in the future than their heterosexual counterparts, that association was largely explained by sociodemographic and health differences. After control for these differentials, LGB adults were less likely to expect care from family and more likely to expect to use institutional care in old age. Conclusions. LGB adults may rely more heavily than heterosexual adults on formal systems of care. As the older population continues to diversify, nursing homes and assisted living facilities should work to ensure safety and culturally sensitive best practices for older LGB groups. PMID:26378822

Episodic future thinking in 3- to 5-year-old children: the ability to think of what will be needed from a different point of view.

PubMed

Russell, James; Alexis, Dean; Clayton, Nicola

2010-01-01

Assessing children's episodic future thinking by having them select items for future use may be assessing their functional reasoning about the future rather than their future episodic thinking. In an attempt to circumvent this problem, we capitalised on the fact that episodic cognition necessarily has a spatial format (Clayton & Russell, 2009; Hassabis & Maguire, 2007). Accordingly, we asked children of 3, 4, and 5 to chose items they would need to play a game (blow football) from the opposite side of the table on which they had never before played. The crucial item was the box that was needed by children to reach the table from the other side. Over four experiments, we demonstrated that, while children of 3 perform poorly on future questions and children of 5 generally perform quite well, children of 4 years find a question about what they themselves will need to play in the future harder to answer than a similar question posed about another child. We suggest that this result is due to the 'growth error' of over-applying newly-developed Level 2 perspective-taking skills (Flavell et al., 1981), which encourages the selection of non-functional items. The data are discussed in terms of perspective-taking abilities in children and of the neural correlates of episodic cognition, navigation, and theory of mind.

How adolescents construct their future: the effect of loneliness on future orientation.

PubMed

Seginer, Rachel; Lilach, Efrat

2004-12-01

This study examined the effect of loneliness, gender, and two dimensions of prospective life domains on adolescent future orientation. Future orientation was studied in four prospective domains: social relations, marriage and family, higher education and work and career. These domains are described in terms of two dimensions: theme (relational vs. instrumental) and distance (near vs. distant future). Data collected from Israeli Jewish adolescents (11th graders) were analysed by repeated measures ANOVAs and ANCOVAs (covariate: depressive experiences) for seven future orientation variables: value, expectance, control (motivational variables), hopes, fears (cognitive representation variables), exploration, commitment (behavioural variables). As predicted, lonely adolescents scored lower than socially embedded adolescents on future orientation variables applied to the relational and near future domains and lonely boys scored lower than lonely girls. However, effects were found only on the three future orientation motivational variables and not on the cognitive representation and behavioural variables. Contrary to prediction controlling for the effect of depressive experiences did not reduce the effect of loneliness on the future orientation variables, but reduced the tendency of adolescents to score higher on all future orientation variables in the instrumental than in the relational prospective domains. The contribution of these findings to the understanding of adolescent loneliness and future orientation was discussed and directions for future research were suggested.

Estimating current and future global urban domestic material consumption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baynes, Timothy Malcolm; Kaviti Musango, Josephine

2018-06-01

Urban material resource requirements are significant at the global level and these are expected to expand with future urban population growth. However, there are no global scale studies on the future material consumption of urban areas. This paper provides estimates of global urban domestic material consumption (DMC) in 2050 using three approaches based on: current gross statistics; a regression model; and a transition theoretic logistic model. All methods use UN urban population projections and assume a simple ‘business-as-usual’ scenario wherein historical aggregate trends in income and material flow continue into the future. A collation of data for 152 cities provided a year 2000 world average DMC/capita estimate, 12 tons/person/year (±22%), which we combined with UN population projections to produce a first-order estimation of urban DMC at 2050 of ~73 billion tons/year (±22%). Urban DMC/capita was found to be significantly correlated (R 2 > 0.9) to urban GDP/capita and area per person through a power law relation used to obtain a second estimate of 106 billion tons (±33%) in 2050. The inelastic exponent of the power law indicates a global tendency for relative decoupling of direct urban material consumption with increasing income. These estimates are global and influenced by the current proportion of developed-world cities in the global population of cities (and in our sample data). A third method employed a logistic model of transitions in urban DMC/capita with regional resolution. This method estimated global urban DMC to rise from approximately 40 billion tons/year in 2010 to ~90 billion tons/year in 2050 (modelled range: 66–111 billion tons/year). DMC/capita across different regions was estimated to converge from a range of 5–27 tons/person/year in the year 2000 to around 8–17 tons/person/year in 2050. The urban population does not increase proportionally during this period and thus the global average DMC/capita increases from ~12 to ~14 tons/person/year

"Too Hot for the Reindeer"--Voicing Sami Children's Visions of the Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jonsson, Gunnar; Sarri, Carina; Alerby, Eva

2012-01-01

In this paper, we focus attention on the issue of the future by listening to the voices of Indigenous children in the far north of Sweden--the Sami children. The overall aim of the study is to explore the meaning of Sami children's visions of the future. The participants attend the same Sami School, and they were of the age of 9-12 years. Data…

The Future Revisited: A Progress Report on Forming the Future, 1985.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gaines, Margie; Schuyler, Nancy B.

This report summarized progress made since 1981-82 on 88 propositions and 292 related recommendations set forth by Forming the Future, a cooperative effort between the Austin (Texas) Independent School District and the Austin community to implement a 5-year program of broad school improvements. Of the 292 recommendations, approximately 86% were…

Predictors for Employment Status in People With Multiple Sclerosis: A 10-Year Longitudinal Observational Study.

PubMed

Forslin, Mia; Fink, Katharina; Hammar, Ulf; von Koch, Lena; Johansson, Sverker

2018-01-31

To identify predictors for employment status after 10 years in a cohort of people with multiple sclerosis (MS), with the aim to increase knowledge concerning factors present at an early stage that are important for working life and work-life balance. A 10-year longitudinal observational cohort study. University hospital. A consecutive sample of people with MS (N=154) of working age were included at baseline, of which a total of 116 people participated in the 10-year follow-up; 27 people declined participation and 11 were deceased. Not applicable. Baseline data on personal factors and functioning were used as independent variables. Employment status 10 years after baseline, categorized as full-time work, part-time work, and no work, was used as the dependent variable. A generalized ordinal logistic regression was used to analyze the predictive value of the independent variables. Predictors for full- or part-time work after 10 years were young age (P=.002), low perceived physical impact of MS (P=.02), fatigue (P=.03), full-time work (P=.001), and high frequency of social/lifestyle activities (P=.001) at baseline. Low perceived physical impact of MS (P=.02) at baseline also predicted full-time work after 10 years. This study underlines the complexity of working life for people with MS, and indicates that it may be valuable to give more attention to the balance between working and private life, both in clinical practice and future research, to achieve a sustainable working life over time. Copyright © 2018 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Association of Daily Physical Symptoms with Future Health

PubMed Central

Leger, Kate A.; Charles, Susan T.; Ayanian, John Z.; Almeida, David M.

2015-01-01

Rationale Daily physical symptoms play a critical role in health and illness experiences. Despite their daily prevalence, the ability of these symptoms to predict future health status is debated. Objective The current study examined whether physical symptom reports predict future health outcomes independent of trait measures of emotion. Methods Participants (N = 1189) who completed both Midlife in the United States (MIDUS) Surveys I and II as well as the National Study of Daily Experiences (NSDE) reported their daily physical symptoms at baseline and number of reported chronic conditions and functional disability nearly 10 years later. Results Physical symptoms at baseline significantly predicted the occurrence of chronic conditions and functional impairment at long-term follow-up, even after adjusting for self-reported affect, self-reported health, and previous health status. Conclusion Findings suggest that daily physical symptoms are unique indicators of future health status. PMID:26364011

Motivational Antecedents of Preventive Proactivity in Late Life: Linking Future Orientation and Exercise1

PubMed Central

Kahana, Eva; Kahana, Boaz; Zhang, Jianping

2007-01-01

Future orientation is considered as a motivational antecedent of late-life proactivity. In a panel study of 453 old-old adults, we linked future orientation to exercise, a key component of late-life proactivity. Findings based on hierarchical linear modeling reveal that future orientation at baseline predicts changes in exercise during the subsequent four years. Whereas exercise behavior generally declined over time, future orientation and female gender were associated with smaller decline. These results suggest that future-oriented thinking has a lasting impact on health promotion behavior. Future orientation thus represents a dispositional antecedent of preventive proactivity as proposed in our successful aging model. PMID:18080009

Future Economics of Liver Transplantation: A 20-Year Cost Modeling Forecast and the Prospect of Bioengineering Autologous Liver Grafts

PubMed Central

Habka, Dany; Mann, David; Landes, Ronald; Soto-Gutierrez, Alejandro

2015-01-01

During the past 20 years liver transplantation has become the definitive treatment for most severe types of liver failure and hepatocellular carcinoma, in both children and adults. In the U.S., roughly 16,000 individuals are on the liver transplant waiting list. Only 38% of them will receive a transplant due to the organ shortage. This paper explores another option: bioengineering an autologous liver graft. We developed a 20-year model projecting future demand for liver transplants, along with costs based on current technology. We compared these cost projections against projected costs to bioengineer autologous liver grafts. The model was divided into: 1) the epidemiology model forecasting the number of wait-listed patients, operated patients and postoperative patients; and 2) the treatment model forecasting costs (pre-transplant-related costs; transplant (admission)-related costs; and 10-year post-transplant-related costs) during the simulation period. The patient population was categorized using the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score. The number of patients on the waiting list was projected to increase 23% over 20 years while the weighted average treatment costs in the pre-liver transplantation phase were forecast to increase 83% in Year 20. Projected demand for livers will increase 10% in 10 years and 23% in 20 years. Total costs of liver transplantation are forecast to increase 33% in 10 years and 81% in 20 years. By comparison, the projected cost to bioengineer autologous liver grafts is $9.7M based on current catalog prices for iPS-derived liver cells. The model projects a persistent increase in need and cost of donor livers over the next 20 years that’s constrained by a limited supply of donor livers. The number of patients who die while on the waiting list will reflect this ever-growing disparity. Currently, bioengineering autologous liver grafts is cost prohibitive. However, costs will decline rapidly with the introduction of new manufacturing

Future Economics of Liver Transplantation: A 20-Year Cost Modeling Forecast and the Prospect of Bioengineering Autologous Liver Grafts.

PubMed

Habka, Dany; Mann, David; Landes, Ronald; Soto-Gutierrez, Alejandro

2015-01-01

During the past 20 years liver transplantation has become the definitive treatment for most severe types of liver failure and hepatocellular carcinoma, in both children and adults. In the U.S., roughly 16,000 individuals are on the liver transplant waiting list. Only 38% of them will receive a transplant due to the organ shortage. This paper explores another option: bioengineering an autologous liver graft. We developed a 20-year model projecting future demand for liver transplants, along with costs based on current technology. We compared these cost projections against projected costs to bioengineer autologous liver grafts. The model was divided into: 1) the epidemiology model forecasting the number of wait-listed patients, operated patients and postoperative patients; and 2) the treatment model forecasting costs (pre-transplant-related costs; transplant (admission)-related costs; and 10-year post-transplant-related costs) during the simulation period. The patient population was categorized using the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score. The number of patients on the waiting list was projected to increase 23% over 20 years while the weighted average treatment costs in the pre-liver transplantation phase were forecast to increase 83% in Year 20. Projected demand for livers will increase 10% in 10 years and 23% in 20 years. Total costs of liver transplantation are forecast to increase 33% in 10 years and 81% in 20 years. By comparison, the projected cost to bioengineer autologous liver grafts is $9.7M based on current catalog prices for iPS-derived liver cells. The model projects a persistent increase in need and cost of donor livers over the next 20 years that's constrained by a limited supply of donor livers. The number of patients who die while on the waiting list will reflect this ever-growing disparity. Currently, bioengineering autologous liver grafts is cost prohibitive. However, costs will decline rapidly with the introduction of new manufacturing

Association between pancreatic fat and incidence of metabolic syndrome: a 5-year Japanese cohort study.

PubMed

Yamazaki, Hajime; Tauchi, Shinichi; Kimachi, Miho; Dohke, Mitsuru; Hanawa, Nagisa; Kodama, Yoshihisa; Katanuma, Akio; Yamamoto, Yosuke; Fukuma, Shingo; Fukuhara, Shunichi

2018-04-26

Previous cross-sectional studies showed that pancreatic fat was associated with metabolic syndrome. However, no longitudinal study has evaluated whether people with high pancreatic fat are likely to develop future metabolic syndrome. This study investigated the association between baseline pancreatic fat and metabolic syndrome incidence. In 2008-2009, 320 participants without metabolic syndrome underwent health checks, which included unenhanced computed tomography, and were followed up annually for 4-5 years. Baseline pancreatic fat amounts were evaluated using a histologically validated method that measured differences between pancreas and spleen attenuations on computed tomography. The participants were divided into low (reference), intermediate, and high pancreatic fat groups based on pancreas and spleen attenuation tertiles. Metabolic syndrome incidence was evaluated annually over a median follow-up period of 4.99 (interquartile range, 4.88-5.05) years, in accordance with the 2009 harmonized criteria. Risk ratios (RRs) for the association between baseline pancreatic fat amounts and metabolic syndrome incidence were estimated using Poisson regression models adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, liver fat, pre-metabolic syndrome, cigarette use, alcohol use, and physical activity. Metabolic syndrome incidence was 30.6% (98/320). Pancreatic fat was associated with an increased incidence of metabolic syndrome, based on a univariate analysis (RRs [95% confidence interval], 3.14 [1.74-5.67] and 3.96 [2.23-7.03] in the intermediate and high pancreatic fat groups, respectively). The association remained statistically significant in the multivariate analysis (RR [95% confidence interval], 2.04 [1.14-3.64] and 2.30 [1.28-4.14] for the same groups, respectively). Pancreatic fat predicts the future risk of metabolic syndrome. © 2018 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Considering Future Potential Regarding Structural Diversity in Selection of Forest Reserves.

PubMed

Lundström, Johanna; Öhman, Karin; Rönnqvist, Mikael; Gustafsson, Lena

2016-01-01

A rich structural diversity in forests promotes biodiversity. Forests are dynamic and therefore it is crucial to consider future structural potential when selecting reserves, to make robust conservation decisions. We analyzed forests in boreal Sweden based on 17,599 National Forest Inventory (NFI) plots with the main aim to understand how effectiveness of reserves depends on the time dimension in the selection process, specifically by considering future structural diversity. In the study both the economic value and future values of 15 structural variables were simulated during a 100 year period. To get a net present structural value (NPSV), a single value covering both current and future values, we used four discounting alternatives: (1) only considering present values, (2) giving equal importance to values in each of the 100 years within the planning horizon, (3) applying an annual discount rate considering the risk that values could be lost, and (4) only considering the values in year 100. The four alternatives were evaluated in a reserve selection model under budget-constrained and area-constrained selections. When selecting young forests higher structural richness could be reached at a quarter of the cost over almost twice the area in a budget-constrained selection compared to an area-constrained selection. Our results point to the importance of considering future structural diversity in the selection of forest reserves and not as is done currently to base the selection on existing values. Targeting future values increases structural diversity and implies a relatively lower cost. Further, our results show that a re-orientation from old to young forests would imply savings while offering a more extensive reserve network with high structural qualities in the future. However, caution must be raised against a drastic reorientation of the current old-forest strategy since remnants of ancient forests will need to be prioritized due to their role for disturbance

Trajectories of disposable income among people of working ages diagnosed with multiple sclerosis: a nationwide register-based cohort study in Sweden 7 years before to 4 years after diagnosis with a population-based reference group

PubMed Central

Mogard, Olof; Alexanderson, Kristina; Karampampa, Korinna; Friberg, Emilie; Tinghög, Petter

2018-01-01

Objectives To describe how disposable income (DI) and three main components changed, and analyse whether DI development differed from working-aged people with multiple sclerosis (MS) to a reference group from 7 years before to 4 years after diagnosis in Sweden. Design Population-based cohort study, 12-year follow-up (7 years before to 4 years after diagnosis). Setting Swedish working-age population with microdata linked from two nationwide registers. Participants Residents diagnosed with MS in 2009 aged 25–59 years (n=785), and references without MS (n=7847) randomly selected with stratified matching (sex, age, education and country of birth). Primary and secondary outcome measures DI was defined as the annual after tax sum of incomes (earnings and benefits) to measure individual economic welfare. Three main components of DI were analysed as annual sums: earnings, sickness absence benefits and disability pension benefits. Results We found no differences in mean annual DI between people with and without MS by independent t-tests (p values between 0.15 and 0.96). Differences were found for all studied components of DI from diagnosis year by independent t-tests, for example, in the final study year (2013): earnings (−64 867 Swedish Krona (SEK); 95% CI−79 203 to −50 528); sickness absence benefits (13 330 SEK; 95% CI 10 042 to 16 500); and disability pension benefits (21 360 SEK; 95% CI 17 380 to 25 350). A generalised estimating equation evaluated DI trajectory development between people with and without MS to find both trajectories developed in parallel, both before (−4039 SEK; 95% CI −10 536 to 2458) and after (−781 SEK; 95% CI −6988 to 5360) diagnosis. Conclusions The key finding of parallel DI trajectory development between working-aged MS and references suggests minimal economic impact within the first 4 years of diagnosis. The Swedish welfare system was responsive to the observed reductions in earnings around MS diagnosis

Trajectories of disposable income among people of working ages diagnosed with multiple sclerosis: a nationwide register-based cohort study in Sweden 7 years before to 4 years after diagnosis with a population-based reference group.

PubMed

Murley, Chantelle; Mogard, Olof; Wiberg, Michael; Alexanderson, Kristina; Karampampa, Korinna; Friberg, Emilie; Tinghög, Petter

2018-05-09

To describe how disposable income (DI) and three main components changed, and analyse whether DI development differed from working-aged people with multiple sclerosis (MS) to a reference group from 7 years before to 4 years after diagnosis in Sweden. Population-based cohort study, 12-year follow-up (7 years before to 4 years after diagnosis). Swedish working-age population with microdata linked from two nationwide registers. Residents diagnosed with MS in 2009 aged 25-59 years (n=785), and references without MS (n=7847) randomly selected with stratified matching (sex, age, education and country of birth). DI was defined as the annual after tax sum of incomes (earnings and benefits) to measure individual economic welfare. Three main components of DI were analysed as annual sums: earnings, sickness absence benefits and disability pension benefits. We found no differences in mean annual DI between people with and without MS by independent t-tests (p values between 0.15 and 0.96). Differences were found for all studied components of DI from diagnosis year by independent t-tests, for example, in the final study year (2013): earnings (-64 867 Swedish Krona (SEK); 95% CI-79 203 to -50 528); sickness absence benefits (13 330 SEK; 95% CI 10 042 to 16 500); and disability pension benefits (21 360 SEK; 95% CI 17 380 to 25 350). A generalised estimating equation evaluated DI trajectory development between people with and without MS to find both trajectories developed in parallel, both before (-4039 SEK; 95% CI -10 536 to 2458) and after (-781 SEK; 95% CI -6988 to 5360) diagnosis. The key finding of parallel DI trajectory development between working-aged MS and references suggests minimal economic impact within the first 4 years of diagnosis. The Swedish welfare system was responsive to the observed reductions in earnings around MS diagnosis through balancing DI with morbidity-related benefits. Future decreases in economic welfare may be experienced as the

20 Years of Research into Violence and Trauma: Past and Future Developments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kamphuis, Jan H.; Emmelkamp, Paul M. G.

2005-01-01

This reflection on major developments in the past, present, and future of the wider field of violence and trauma is a personal (and probably biased) sampling of what the authors hold to be important. The authors reviewed advances for victims and perpetrators of violence separately. For victims, the authors note that empirical research has…

Toward the Year 2000: The Future of the Virginia Community College System.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Virginia State Dept. of Community Colleges, Richmond.

Based on the work of the Committee on the Future of the Virginia Community College System and group discussions by 100 representatives of colleges, business/industry, and state bodies, this long-range plan offers guidance for the development of the community college system for the remainder of the century. Following introductory information on the…

Study on tooth development, past, present, and future.

PubMed

Jung, Han-Sung; Hitoshi, Yamamoto; Kim, Hee-Jin

2003-04-01

For decades, the understanding of craniofacial development has been a central issue in odontology and developmental biology. As a consequence, a significant number of deformities are being studied for their variety of genotype and phenotype. Although there is little doubt about the essential roles of homeobox genes, transcription factors, and growth factors, we now know at least the fundamental strategy of craniofacial biology. The tooth as an organ performs a whole range of functions, each of which is truly indispensable for the maintenance of life. The possession of teeth is, therefore, obviously coupled with the complication of the natural structure of an individual organism. In the following, we shall focus on a brief history of tooth studies and some suggestions for obtaining a full understanding of teeth in the future. Copyright 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Outcomes and satisfaction of two optional cadaveric dissection courses: A 3-year prospective study.

PubMed

Pais, Diogo; Casal, Diogo; Mascarenhas-Lemos, Luís; Barata, Pedro; Moxham, Bernard J; Goyri-O'Neill, João

2017-03-01

Teaching time dedicated to anatomy education has been reduced at many medical schools around the world, including Nova Medical School in Lisbon, Portugal. In order to minimize the effects of this reduction, the authors introduced two optional, semester-long cadaveric dissection courses for the first two years of the medical school curriculum. These courses were named Regional Anatomy I (RAI) and Regional Anatomy II (RAII). In RAI, students focus on dissecting the thorax, abdomen, pelvis, and perineum. In RAII, the focus shifts to the head, neck, back, and upper and lower limbs. This study prospectively analyzes students' academic achievement and perceptions within the context of these two, newly-introduced, cadaveric dissection courses. Students' satisfaction was assessed anonymously through a questionnaire that included items regarding students' perception of the usefulness of the courses for undergraduate teaching, as well as with regards to future professional activity. For each of the three academic years studied, the final score (1 to 20) in General Anatomy (GA), RAI, and RAII was on average 14.26 ± 1.89; 16.94 ± 1.02; 17.49 ± 1.01, respectively. The mean results were lower in GA than RAI or RAII (P < 0.001). Furthermore, students who undertook these courses ranked them highly with regards to consolidating their knowledge of anatomy, preparing for other undergraduate courses, and training for future clinical practice. These survey data, combined with data on participating students' academic achievement, lend strong support to the adoption of similar courses as complementary and compulsory disciplines in a modern medical curriculum. Anat Sci Educ 10: 127-136. © 2016 American Association of Anatomists. © 2016 American Association of Anatomists.

Future methane emissions from animals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anastasi, C.; Simpson, V. J.

1993-04-01

The future global emission of CH4 from enteric fermentation in animals has been estimated for cattle, sheep, and buffalo, which together contribute approximately 91% of the total CH4 emitted from domesticated animals at present. A simple model has been used to relate livestock levels to the national human populations for each country involved in breeding the three species included in this analysis. United Nations population predictions to 2025 were then included in the model to estimate future CH4 emissions. A variational analysis was carried out to investigate the effect of future changes in both the land available for grazing and the nutritional content of feedstocks. Results suggest that the total emission of CH4 from enteric fermentation in domestic animals will increase from 84 Tg CH4 per year (Tg = 1012 g) in 1990 to 119 (±12) Tg CH4 yr-1 by 2025. These values correspond to an average rate of increase over the next 35 years of 1.0 Tg CH4 yr-1.

Assessing Statewide All-Cause Future One-Year Mortality: Prospective Study With Implications for Quality of Life, Resource Utilization, and Medical Futility.

PubMed

Guo, Yanting; Zheng, Gang; Fu, Tianyun; Hao, Shiying; Ye, Chengyin; Zheng, Le; Liu, Modi; Xia, Minjie; Jin, Bo; Zhu, Chunqing; Wang, Oliver; Wu, Qian; Culver, Devore S; Alfreds, Shaun T; Stearns, Frank; Kanov, Laura; Bhatia, Ajay; Sylvester, Karl G; Widen, Eric; McElhinney, Doff B; Ling, Xuefeng Bruce

2018-06-04

cohort. The mortality was 0.99% in the low-risk group, 16.75% in the intermediate-risk group, and 72.12% in the high-risk group. A total of 99 independent risk factors (n=99) for mortality were identified (reported as odds ratios; 95% CI). Age was on the top of list (1.41; 1.06-1.48); congestive heart failure (20.90; 15.41-28.08) and different tumor sites were also recognized as driving risk factors, such as cancer of the ovaries (14.42; 2.24-53.04), colon (14.07; 10.08-19.08), and stomach (13.64; 3.26-86.57). Disparities were also found in patients' social determinants like respiratory hazard index (1.24; 0.92-1.40) and unemployment rate (1.18; 0.98-1.24). Among high-risk patients who expired in our dataset, cerebrovascular accident, amputation, and type 1 diabetes were the top 3 diseases in terms of average cost in the last year of life. Our study prospectively validated an accurate 1-year risk prediction model and stratification for the elderly population (≥65 years) at risk of mortality with statewide electronic medical record datasets. It should be a valuable adjunct for helping patients to make better quality-of-life choices and alerting care givers to target high-risk elderly for appropriate care and discussions, thus cutting back on futile treatment. ©Yanting Guo, Gang Zheng, Tianyun Fu, Shiying Hao, Chengyin Ye, Le Zheng, Modi Liu, Minjie Xia, Bo Jin, Chunqing Zhu, Oliver Wang, Qian Wu, Devore S Culver, Shaun T Alfreds, Frank Stearns, Laura Kanov, Ajay Bhatia, Karl G Sylvester, Eric Widen, Doff B McElhinney, Xuefeng Bruce Ling. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 04.06.2018.

Forecasting future prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Syria

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is increasingly becoming a major public health problem worldwide. Estimating the future burden of diabetes is instrumental to guide the public health response to the epidemic. This study aims to project the prevalence of T2DM among adults in Syria over the period 2003–2022 by applying a modelling approach to the country’s own data. Methods Future prevalence of T2DM in Syria was estimated among adults aged 25 years and older for the period 2003–2022 using the IMPACT Diabetes Model (a discrete-state Markov model). Results According to our model, the prevalence of T2DM in Syria is projected to double in the period between 2003 and 2022 (from 10% to 21%). The projected increase in T2DM prevalence is higher in men (148%) than in women (93%). The increase in prevalence of T2DM is expected to be most marked in people younger than 55 years especially the 25–34 years age group. Conclusions The future projections of T2DM in Syria put it amongst countries with the highest levels of T2DM worldwide. It is estimated that by 2022 approximately a fifth of the Syrian population aged 25 years and older will have T2DM. PMID:23705638

Solving the riddle of interglacial temperatures over the last 1.5 million years with a future IPICS "Oldest Ice" ice core

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, Hubertus

2014-05-01

The sequence of the last 8 glacial cycles is characterized by irregular 100,000 year cycles in temperature and sea level. In contrast, the time period between 1.5-1.2 million years ago is characterized by more regular cycles with an obliquity periodicity of 41,000 years. Based on a deconvolution of deep ocean temperature and ice volume contributions to benthic δ18O (Elderfield et al., Science, 2012), it is suggested that glacial sea level became progressively lower over the last 1.5 Myr, while glacial deep ocean temperatures were very similar. At the same time many interglacials prior to the Mid Brunhes event showed significantly cooler deep ocean temperatures than the Holocene, while at the same time interglacial ice volume remained essentially the same. In contrast, interglacial sea surface temperatures in the tropics changed little (Herbert et al., Science,2010) and proxy reconstructions of atmospheric CO2 using δ11B in planktic foraminifera (Hönisch et al., Science, 2009) suggest that prior to 900,000 yr before present interglacial CO2 levels did not differ substantially from those over the last 450,000 years. Accordingly, the conundrum arises how interglacials can differ in deep ocean temperature without any obvious change in ice volume or greenhouse gas forcing and what caused the change in cyclicity of glacial interglacial cycles over the Mid Pleistocene Transition. Probably the most important contribution to solve this riddle is the recovery of a 1.5 Myr old ice core from Antarctica, which among others would provide an unambiguous, high-resolution record of the greenhouse gas history over this time period. Accordingly, the international ice core community, as represented by the International Partnership for Ice Core Science (IPICS), has identified such an 'Oldest Ice' ice core as one of the most important scientific targets for the future (http://www.pages.unibe.ch/ipics/white-papers). However, finding stratigraphically undisturbed ice, which covers this

Future of the geoscience profession

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carleton, A.T.

1995-05-01

I want to discuss the future of the energy industry and the geoscience profession. That`s you and me. Is there a future for us? Will there be a need for petroleum? What will we use for energy in the future? Over the past several years, those of us in the energy business have witnessed remarkable changes in our industry and our profession. We must be able to change with the conditions if we are to survive them. To do so, some idea of what the future holds is essential. I will discuss what that future may be and will covermore » these topics: world population and energy demand, exploration and production outlook, environmental considerations, geoscience demographics, education, technology, and government. Much of the statistical data and some of the projections I will discuss have been taken from the report of AAPG`s 21st Century Committee, of which I was a member.« less

The structure of a factory closure: individual responses to job-loss and unemployment in a 10-year controlled follow-up study.

PubMed

Westin, S

1990-01-01

A prospective study has been conducted of 85 employees (72 women and 13 men) made redundant when a brisling sardine factory on the west coast of Norway was shut down in 1975. 87 employees (66 women and 21 men) in a 'sister factory' which was not shut down, were used as controls. Previous analyses have shown a substantial reduction in future employment of the study group, a two-fold increase in time consumed on sick leave during the first follow-up year, and a more than three-fold increase in the life-table based rates of disability pensions (invalidity) during the first four follow-up years compared to the controls. In this paper the follow-up data regarding six mutually exclusive and inclusive conditions related to employment and health have been analysed on a weeks per person per year basis, permitting the effects of job-loss over 10 years to be compared with what could have been expected had the factory not been closed. For those not subjected to old age pension or death, three kinds of long-term adaptation showed a marked differential effect among study subjects and controls: a substantial long-term reduction in mean time spent in job, an increase in consumption of time on disability pension, and an increase in time spent outside the labour force without social security coverage, the latter being mostly confined to women. These follow-up data provide a comprehensive picture of individual long-term adaptation to involuntary job-loss, emphasizing its effects on future employment, health, social readjustment and social security benefit consumption.

Analyzing Future Flooding under Climate Change Scenario using CMIP5 Streamflow Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parajuli, Ranjan; Nyaupane, Narayan; Kalra, Ajay

2017-12-01

Flooding is a severe and costlier natural hazard. The effect of climate change has intensified the scenario in recent years. Flood prevention practice along with a proper understanding of flooding event can mitigate the risk of such hazard. The floodplain mapping is one of the technique to quantify the severity of the flooding. Carson City, which is one of the agricultural areas in the desert of Nevada has experienced peak flood in the recent year. The underlying probability distribution for the area, latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) streamflow data of Carson River were analyzed for 27 different statistical distributions. The best-fitted distribution underlying was used to forecast the 100yr flood (design flood). The data from 1950-2099 derived from 31 model and total 97 projections were used to predict the future streamflow. Delta change method is adopted to quantify the amount of future (2050-2099) flood. To determine the extent of flooding 3 scenarios (i) historic design flood, (ii) 500yr flood and (iii) future 100yr flood were routed on an HEC-RAS model, prepared using available terrain data. Some of the climate projection shows an extreme increase in future design flood. This study suggests an approach to quantify the future flood and floodplain using climate model projections. The study would provide helpful information to the facility manager, design engineer, and stakeholders.

Future Warming Patterns Linked to Today's Climate Variability.

PubMed

Dai, Aiguo

2016-01-11

The reliability of model projections of greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced future climate change is often assessed based on models' ability to simulate the current climate, but there has been little evidence that connects the two. In fact, this practice has been questioned because the GHG-induced future climate change may involve additional physical processes that are not important for the current climate. Here I show that the spatial patterns of the GHG-induced future warming in the 21(st) century is highly correlated with the patterns of the year-to-year variations of surface air temperature for today's climate, with areas of larger variations during 1950-1979 having more GHG-induced warming in the 21(st) century in all climate models. Such a relationship also exists in other climate fields such as atmospheric water vapor, and it is evident in observed temperatures from 1950-2010. The results suggest that many physical processes may work similarly in producing the year-to-year climate variations in the current climate and the GHG-induced long-term changes in the 21(st) century in models and in the real world. They support the notion that models that simulate present-day climate variability better are likely to make more reliable predictions of future climate change.

Anticipating Their Future: Adolescent Values for the Future Predict Adult Behaviors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Finlay, Andrea K.; Wray-Lake, Laura; Warren, Michael; Maggs, Jennifer

2015-01-01

Adolescent future values--beliefs about what will matter to them in the future--may shape their adult behavior. Utilizing a national longitudinal British sample, this study examined whether adolescent future values in six domains (i.e., family responsibility, full-time job, personal responsibility, autonomy, civic responsibility, and hedonistic…

Reading the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nettle, Keith

Given the strong sense of passing time which seems to be wired into human beings, it is only natural that the Year 2000, or Y2K in contemporary jargon, should lead to serious speculation about the future. Reading and literacy, old skills relatively speaking, continue rightly to figure in those predictions (along with the technologically advanced…

Increased Visceral Adipose Tissue Is an Independent Predictor for Future Development of Atherogenic Dyslipidemia.

PubMed

Hwang, You-Cheol; Fujimoto, Wilfred Y; Hayashi, Tomoshige; Kahn, Steven E; Leonetti, Donna L; Boyko, Edward J

2016-02-01

Atherogenic dyslipidemia is frequently observed in persons with a greater amount of visceral adipose tissue (VAT). However, it is still uncertain whether VAT is independently associated with the future development of atherogenic dyslipidemia. The aim of this study was to determine whether baseline and changes in VAT and subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT) are associated with future development of atherogenic dyslipidemia independent of baseline lipid levels and standard anthropometric indices. Community-based prospective cohort study with 5 years of follow-up. A total of 452 Japanese Americans (240 men, 212 women), aged 34-75 years were assessed at baseline and after 5 years of follow-up. Abdominal fat areas were measured by computed tomography. Atherogenic dyslipidemia was defined as one or more abnormalities in high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, triglycerides, or non-HDL cholesterol levels. Baseline VAT and change in VAT over 5 years were independently associated with log-transformed HDL cholesterol, log-transformed triglyceride, and non-HDL cholesterol after 5 years (standardized β = -0.126, 0.277, and 0.066 for baseline VAT, respectively, and -0.095, 0.223, and 0.090 for change in VAT, respectively). However, baseline and change in SAT were not associated with any future atherogenic lipid level. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, incremental change in VAT (odds ratio [95% confidence interval], 1.73 [1.20-2.48]; P = .003), triglycerides (4.01 [1.72-9.33]; P = .001), HDL cholesterol (0.32 [0.18-0.58]; P < .001), and non-HDL cholesterol (7.58 [4.43-12.95]; P < .001) were significantly associated with the future development of atherogenic dyslipidemia independent of age, sex, diastolic blood pressure, homeostasis model assessment insulin resistance, body mass index (BMI), change in BMI, SAT, and baseline atherogenic lipid levels. Baseline and change in VAT were independent predictors for future development of atherogenic dyslipidemia. However

The National Guard: A Future Homeland Security Paradigm?

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-05-14

Hernandez was an 18-year-old high school student who was taking the family’s flock of sheep out to graze. As he always did, Ezequiel took along an old...Dreiling Army National Guard School of Advanced Military Studies United States Army Command and General Staff College Fort Leavenworth, Kansas AY 01-02...ii SCHOOL OF ADVANCED MILITARY STUDIES MONOGRAPH APPROVAL [Major Elizabeth E. Dreiling] Title of Monograph: The National Guard (NG): A Future

[Preference Changes Regarding Future Work Area and Intended Position Among German Residents after Four Years of Residency].

PubMed

Ziegler, Stine; van den Bussche, Hendrik; Römer, Farina; Krause-Solberg, Lea; Scherer, Martin

2017-06-01

Introduction  We investigated the preferences of medical residents in Germany with regard to future working place (hospital or private practice) and position (employment/self-employment in private practice; resp. specialist/senior or chief physician in the hospital). This is analysed in a gender comparative perspective, including the influence of parenthood. Methods  Annual postal surveys among graduates of seven medical faculties in Germany from their last year ("Practical Year") until after four years of postgraduate training. The return rate at baseline was 48 % and the four surveys after reached rates from 85 % up. In all samples about two thirds were women, which corresponds to the actual gender differentiation in under- and postgraduate training. Descriptive statistics and regression analyses were performed. Results  Compared to private practice the hospital is clearly preferred, although the attraction of hospital jobs decreased over the years. The decision for or against the hospital is connected to the discipline. Working in private practice is seen as possibility for part time work. Men prefer self-employment whereas women prefer to work under an employment contract. In the hospital, male doctors prefer to work in leading positions. Those positions are associated with full-time work. Leadership training especially takes place in university hospitals. Discussion  Three trends are recognized: Reluctance against leading positions, growing interest for part time work and rising popularity of work as an employee in private practice. Those trends can be understood as a rejection of traditional professional role models. The realization of these preferences is easily feasible because of the current labour market situation. Therefore, emerging problems have to be faced in another way. A change of gender-typical role models was rarely detected. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

The Epidemiological features of lymphoid malignancies in Benin City, Nigeria: a 15 years study

PubMed Central

Omoti, Caroline Edijana; Nwannadi, Alexander Ikenna; Obieche, Jude Chike; Olu-Eddo, Adesuwa Noma

2012-01-01

Introduction Lymphoid malignancies compose a wide spectrum of different morphologic and clinical syndromes known to vary widely throughout the world. The purpose of this study is to determine the prevalence and time trends of lymphoid malignancies. Methods A 15 (May 1st 1996-April 30th 2010) years study of all patients who had lymph node biopsy at the Department of Haematology and Pathology, University of Benin Teaching Hospital, Benin City, Nigeria. Results The 391 patients had a male preponderance (M:F; 1.6:1). An increase in the lymphoid malignant cases was noted from 95 cases in the first 5-year interval (1996–2000) to 179 cases in the last 5-year interval (2006–2010) giving an average increase of 84.0%. Non-Hodgkins lymphoma (61.1%) and chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (18.2%) were the most frequent followed by Hodgkin's lymphoma and myeloma with equal proportions of 9.0% each. A positive correlation with a significant linear trends was obtained (r=0.1949, p<0.0001). Geographic areas at risk were found mainly in patients residing in Delta State (67.0%) which is a major oil producing state and Edo State (30.4%) where the hospital is located, both in the Niger Delta Region of Nigeria. Conclusion Future research into environmental agents and genetic makeup/HLA typing of patients can be carried out. PMID:22368753

Early Menopause Predicts Future Coronary Heart Disease and Stroke: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

PubMed Central

Wellons, Melissa; Ouyang, Pamela; Schreiner, Pamela J; Herrington, David M; Vaidya, Dhananjay

2012-01-01

Objective Cardiovascular disease is the number one killer of women. Identifying women at risk of cardiovascular disease has tremendous public health importance. Early menopause is associated with increased cardiovascular disease events in some predominantly white populations, but not consistently. Our objective was to determine if a self-reported early menopause (menopause at an age <46) identifies women as at risk for future coronary heart disease or stroke. Methods The study population came from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, a longitudinal, ethnically diverse cohort study of US men and women aged 45 to 84 years enrolled in 2000–2002 and followed up until 2008. The association between a personal history of early menopause (either natural menopause or surgical removal of ovaries at an age <46) and future coronary heart disease and stroke was assessed in 2509 women (ages 45–84, 987 White, 331 Chinese, 641 Black, 550 Hispanic) from the Multi-Ethnic Study Atherosclerosis, who were free of cardiovascular disease at baseline. Results 693/2509 (28%) of women reported either surgical or natural early menopause. In survival curves, women with early menopause had worse coronary heart disease and stroke-free survival (log rank p=<0.008 and 0.0158). In models adjusted for age, race/ethnicity, Multi-Ethnic Study Atherosclerosis site and traditional cardiovascular disease risk factors, this risk for coronary heart disease and stroke remained (HR 2.08, 95% CI 1.17, 3.70 and 2.19, 95% CI 1.11, 4.32, respectively). Conclusions Early menopause is positively associated with coronary heart disease and stroke in a multiethnic cohort, independent of traditional cardiovascular disease risk factors. PMID:22692332

Past and Future Drought Regimes in Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sen, Burak; Topcu, Sevilay; Turkes, Murat; Sen, Baha

2010-05-01

Climate variability in the 20th century was characterized by apparent precipitation variability at both temporal and spatial scales. In addition to the well-known characteristic seasonal and year-to-year variability, some marked and long-term changes in precipitation occurred in Turkey, particularly after the early 1970s. Drought, originating from a deficiency of precipitation over an extended time period (which is usually a season or more) has become a recurring phenomenon in Turkey in the past few decades. Spatially coherent with the significant drought events since early 1970s, water stress and shortages for all water user sectors have also reached their critical points in Turkey. Analyzing the historical occurrence of drought provides an understanding of the range of climate possibilities for a country, resulting in more informed management decision-making. However, future projections about spatial and temporal changes in drought characteristics such as frequency, intensity and duration can be challenging for developing appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies. Hence, the objectives of this study are (i) to analyze the spatial and temporal dimensions of historical droughts in Turkey, (2) to predict potential intensity, frequency and duration of droughts in Turkey for the future (2070-2100). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Percent to Normal Index (PNI) have been used to assess the drought characteristics. Rainfall datasets for the reference period, 1960-1990, were acquired from 52 stations (representative of all kinds of regions with different rainfall regimes in the country) of the Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS). The future rainfall series for the 2070-2100 period were simulated using a regional climate model (RegCM3) for IPCC's SRESS-A2 scenario conditions. For verification of RegCM3 simulations, the model was performed for the reference period and simulated rainfall data were used for computing two drought indices (SPI

Involuntary psychiatric hospitalisation, stigma stress and recovery: a 2-year study.

PubMed

Xu, Z; Lay, B; Oexle, N; Drack, T; Bleiker, M; Lengler, S; Blank, C; Müller, M; Mayer, B; Rössler, W; Rüsch, N

2018-01-31

Compulsory admission can be experienced as devaluing and stigmatising by people with mental illness. Emotional reactions to involuntary hospitalisation and stigma-related stress may affect recovery, but longitudinal data are lacking. We, therefore, examined the impact of stigma-related emotional reactions and stigma stress on recovery over a 2-year period. Shame and self-contempt as emotional reactions to involuntary hospitalisation, stigma stress, self-stigma and empowerment, as well as recovery were assessed among 186 individuals with serious mental illness and a history of recent involuntary hospitalisation. More shame, self-contempt and stigma stress at baseline were correlated with increased self-stigma and reduced empowerment after 1 year. More stigma stress at baseline was associated with poor recovery after 2 years. In a longitudinal path analysis more stigma stress at baseline predicted poorer recovery after 2 years, mediated by decreased empowerment after 1 year, controlling for age, gender, symptoms and recovery at baseline. Stigma stress may have a lasting detrimental effect on recovery among people with mental illness and a history of involuntary hospitalisation. Anti-stigma interventions that reduce stigma stress and programs that enhance empowerment could improve recovery. Future research should test the effect of such interventions on recovery.

Future methane emissions from animals

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anastasi, C.; Simpson, V.J.

1993-04-20

The authors project future methane emissions from animals to the year 2025. They review the present estimated sources of methane from enteric fermentation in animals. Ruminant animals produce the highest concentrations of methane. Methane is a byproduct of anaerobic breakdown of carbohydrates by microbes in the digestive tract of herbatious animals. In general the methane production depends on the variety of animal, the quality of the feed, and the feeding level. Since cattle, sheep, and buffalo account for roughly 91% of all animal methane emission, they only study these animals in detail. Results suggest a rise in methane production ofmore » roughly 1% per year averaged through 2025. Increasing levels are found to originate from developed countries even though the feedstock levels are lower.« less

Future Orientation, Impulsivity, and Problem Behaviors: A Longitudinal Moderation Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Pan; Vazsonyi, Alexander T.

2011-01-01

In the current study, based on a sample of 1,873 adolescents between 11.4 and 20.9 years of age from the first 3 waves of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, we investigated the longitudinal effects of future orientation on levels of and developmental changes in problem behaviors, while controlling for the effects by impulsivity;…

Development of Future Scenario Emission Inventories for East Asia in Support of Multiple Modeling Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Y.; Woo, J. H.; Choi, K. C.; Lee, J. B.; Song, C. K.; Kim, S. K.; Hong, J.; Hong, S. C.; Zhang, Q.; Hong, C.; Tong, D.

2015-12-01

Future emission scenarios based on up-to-date regional socio-economic and control policy information were developed in support of climate-air quality integrated modeling research over East Asia. Two IPCC-participated Integrated Assessment Models(IAMs) were used to developed those scenario pathways. The two emission processing systems, KU-EPS and SMOKE-Asia, were used to convert these future scenario emissions to comprehensive chemical transport model-ready form. The NIER/KU-CREATE (Comprehensive Regional Emissions inventory for Atmospheric Transport Experiment) served as the regional base-year emission inventory. For anthropogenic emissions, it has 54 fuel classes, 201 sub-sectors and 13 pollutants, including CO2, CH4, N2O, SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, NH3, OC, BC, PM10, PM2.5, and mercury. Fast energy growth and aggressive penetration of the control measures make emissions projection very active for East Asia. Despite of more stringent air pollution control policies by the governments, however, air quality over the region seems not been improved as much - even worse in many cases. The needs of more scientific understanding of inter-relationship among emissions, transport, chemistry over the region are very high to effectively protect public health and ecosystems against ozone, fine particles, and other toxic pollutants in the air. After developing these long-term future emissions, therefore, we also tried to apply our future scenarios to develop the present emissions inventory for chemical weather forecasting and aircraft field campaign. On site, we will present; 1) the future scenario development framework and process methodologies, 2) initial development results of the future emission pathways, 3) present emission inventories from short-term projection, and 4) air quality modeling performance improvements over the region.

Managing future air quality in megacities: A case study for Delhi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amann, Markus; Purohit, Pallav; Bhanarkar, Anil D.; Bertok, Imrich; Borken-Kleefeld, Jens; Cofala, Janusz; Heyes, Chris; Kiesewetter, Gregor; Klimont, Zbigniew; Liu, Jun; Majumdar, Dipanjali; Nguyen, Binh; Rafaj, Peter; Rao, Padma S.; Sander, Robert; Schöpp, Wolfgang; Srivastava, Anjali; Vardhan, B. Harsh

2017-07-01

Megacities in Asia rank high in air pollution at the global scale. In many cities, ambient concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) have been exceeding both the WHO interim targets as well as respective national air quality standards. This paper presents a systems analytical perspective on management options that could efficiently improve air quality at the urban scale, having Delhi as a case study. We employ the newly developed GAINS-City policy analysis framework, consisting of a bottom up emission calculation combined with atmospheric chemistry-transport calculation, to derive innovative insights into the current sources of pollution and their impacts on ambient PM2.5, both from emissions of primary PM as well as precursors of secondary inorganic and organic aerosols. We outline the likely future development of these sources, quantify the related ambient PM2.5 concentrations and health impacts, and explore potential policy interventions that could effectively reduce environmental pollution and resulting health impacts in the coming years. The analysis demonstrates that effective improvement of Delhi's air quality requires collaboration with neighboring States and must involve sources that are less relevant in industrialized countries. At the same time, many of the policy interventions will have multiple co-benefits on development targets in Delhi and its neighboring States. Outcomes of this study, as well as the modelling tools used herein, are applicable to other urban areas and fast growing metropolitan zones in the emerging Asian regions.

Future directions for positive body image research.

PubMed

Halliwell, Emma

2015-06-01

The emergence of positive body image research during the last 10 years represents an important shift in the body image literature. The existing evidence provides a strong empirical basis for the study of positive body image and research has begun to address issues of age, gender, ethnicity, culture, development, and intervention in relation to positive body image. This article briefly reviews the existing evidence before outlining directions for future research. Specifically, six areas for future positive body image research are outlined: (a) conceptualization, (b) models, (c) developmental factors, (d) social interactions, (e) cognitive processing style, and (f) interventions. Finally, the potential role of positive body image as a protective factor within the broader body image literature is discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Interfutures: Facing the Future, Mastering the Probable and Managing the Unpredictable.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris (France).

This report discusses the findings of the three year Interfutures Project which studied the future development of advanced industrial societies and the relations between these countries and the developing countries. The major emphasis of the project was to analyze economic problems. However, political and social elements were also studied. The…

The association between sleep duration and weight gain in adults: a 6-year prospective study from the Quebec Family Study.

PubMed

Chaput, Jean-Philippe; Després, Jean-Pierre; Bouchard, Claude; Tremblay, Angelo

2008-04-01

To investigate the relationship between sleep duration and subsequent body weight and fat gain. Six-year longitudinal study. Community setting. Two hundred seventy-six adults aged 21 to 64 years from the Quebec Family Study. More than half of the sample is drawn from families with at least 1 parent and 1 offspring with a body mass index of 32 kg/m2 or higher. Body composition measurements and self-reported sleep duration were determined. Changes in adiposity indices were compared between short- (5-6 hours), average- (7-8 hours), and long- (9-10 hours) duration sleeper groups. After adjustment for age, sex, and baseline body mass index, short-duration sleepers gained 1.98 kg (95% confidence interval: 1.16-2.82) more and long-duration sleepers gained 1.58 kg (95% CI: 1.02-2.56) more than did average-duration sleepers over 6 years. Short- and long-duration sleepers were 35% and 25% more likely to experience a 5-kg weight gain, respectively, as compared with average-duration sleepers over 6 years. The risk of developing obesity was elevated for short- and long-duration sleepers as compared with average-duration sleepers, with 27% and 21% increases in risk, respectively. These associations remained significant after inclusion of important covariates and were not affected by adjustment for energy intake and physical activity participation. This study provides evidence that both short and long sleeping times predict an increased risk of future body weight and fat gain in adults. Hence, these results emphasize the need to add sleep duration to the panel of determinants that contribute to weight gain and obesity.

Well-being and Anticipation for Future Positive Events: Evidences from an fMRI Study.

PubMed

Luo, Yangmei; Chen, Xuhai; Qi, Senqing; You, Xuqun; Huang, Xiting

2017-01-01

Anticipation for future confers great benefits to human well-being and mental health. However, previous work focus on how people's well-being correlate with brain activities during perception of emotional stimuli, rather than anticipation for the future events. Here, the current study investigated how well-being relates to neural circuitry underlying the anticipating process of future desired events. Using event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging, 40 participants were scanned while they were performing an emotion anticipation task, in which they were instructed to anticipate the positive or neutral events. The results showed that bilateral medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) were activated during anticipation for positive events relative to neutral events, and the enhanced brain activation in MPFC was associated with higher level of well-being. The findings suggest a neural mechanism by which the anticipation process to future desired events correlates to human well-being, which provide a future-oriented view on the neural sources of well-being.

Well-being and Anticipation for Future Positive Events: Evidences from an fMRI Study

PubMed Central

Luo, Yangmei; Chen, Xuhai; Qi, Senqing; You, Xuqun; Huang, Xiting

2018-01-01

Anticipation for future confers great benefits to human well-being and mental health. However, previous work focus on how people’s well-being correlate with brain activities during perception of emotional stimuli, rather than anticipation for the future events. Here, the current study investigated how well-being relates to neural circuitry underlying the anticipating process of future desired events. Using event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging, 40 participants were scanned while they were performing an emotion anticipation task, in which they were instructed to anticipate the positive or neutral events. The results showed that bilateral medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) were activated during anticipation for positive events relative to neutral events, and the enhanced brain activation in MPFC was associated with higher level of well-being. The findings suggest a neural mechanism by which the anticipation process to future desired events correlates to human well-being, which provide a future-oriented view on the neural sources of well-being. PMID:29375415

75 FR 1446 - Future Systems Technology Advisory Panel Meeting

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-01-11

... SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION [Docket No. SSA-2010-0001] Future Systems Technology Advisory Panel... systems technology and electronic services at the agency five to ten years into the future. The Panel will recommend a road map to aid SSA in determining what future systems technologies may be developed to assist...

Executive Function and Falls in Older Adults: New Findings from a Five-Year Prospective Study Link Fall Risk to Cognition

PubMed Central

Mirelman, Anat; Herman, Talia; Brozgol, Marina; Dorfman, Moran; Sprecher, Elliot; Schweiger, Avraham; Giladi, Nir; Hausdorff, Jeffrey M.

2012-01-01

Background Recent findings suggest that executive function (EF) plays a critical role in the regulation of gait in older adults, especially under complex and challenging conditions, and that EF deficits may, therefore, contribute to fall risk. The objective of this study was to evaluate if reduced EF is a risk factor for future falls over the course of 5 years of follow-up. Secondary objectives were to assess whether single and dual task walking abilities, an alternative window into EF, were associated with fall risk. Methodology/Main Results We longitudinally followed 256 community-living older adults (age: 76.4±4.5 yrs; 61% women) who were dementia free and had good mobility upon entrance into the study. At baseline, a computerized cognitive battery generated an index of EF, attention, a closely related construct, and other cognitive domains. Gait was assessed during single and dual task conditions. Falls data were collected prospectively using monthly calendars. Negative binomial regression quantified risk ratios (RR). After adjusting for age, gender and the number of falls in the year prior to the study, only the EF index (RR: .85; CI: .74–.98, p = .021), the attention index (RR: .84; CI: .75–.94, p = .002) and dual tasking gait variability (RR: 1.11; CI: 1.01–1.23; p = .027) were associated with future fall risk. Other cognitive function measures were not related to falls. Survival analyses indicated that subjects with the lowest EF scores were more likely to fall sooner and more likely to experience multiple falls during the 66 months of follow-up (p<0.02). Conclusions/Significance These findings demonstrate that among community-living older adults, the risk of future falls was predicted by performance on EF and attention tests conducted 5 years earlier. The present results link falls among older adults to cognition, indicating that screening EF will likely enhance fall risk assessment, and that treatment of EF may reduce fall risk. PMID

Executive function and falls in older adults: new findings from a five-year prospective study link fall risk to cognition.

PubMed

Mirelman, Anat; Herman, Talia; Brozgol, Marina; Dorfman, Moran; Sprecher, Elliot; Schweiger, Avraham; Giladi, Nir; Hausdorff, Jeffrey M

2012-01-01

Recent findings suggest that executive function (EF) plays a critical role in the regulation of gait in older adults, especially under complex and challenging conditions, and that EF deficits may, therefore, contribute to fall risk. The objective of this study was to evaluate if reduced EF is a risk factor for future falls over the course of 5 years of follow-up. Secondary objectives were to assess whether single and dual task walking abilities, an alternative window into EF, were associated with fall risk. We longitudinally followed 256 community-living older adults (age: 76.4±4.5 yrs; 61% women) who were dementia free and had good mobility upon entrance into the study. At baseline, a computerized cognitive battery generated an index of EF, attention, a closely related construct, and other cognitive domains. Gait was assessed during single and dual task conditions. Falls data were collected prospectively using monthly calendars. Negative binomial regression quantified risk ratios (RR). After adjusting for age, gender and the number of falls in the year prior to the study, only the EF index (RR: .85; CI: .74-.98, p = .021), the attention index (RR: .84; CI: .75-.94, p = .002) and dual tasking gait variability (RR: 1.11; CI: 1.01-1.23; p = .027) were associated with future fall risk. Other cognitive function measures were not related to falls. Survival analyses indicated that subjects with the lowest EF scores were more likely to fall sooner and more likely to experience multiple falls during the 66 months of follow-up (p<0.02). These findings demonstrate that among community-living older adults, the risk of future falls was predicted by performance on EF and attention tests conducted 5 years earlier. The present results link falls among older adults to cognition, indicating that screening EF will likely enhance fall risk assessment, and that treatment of EF may reduce fall risk.

The Complexity of Standing Postural Sway Associates with Future Falls in Community-Dwelling Older Adults: The MOBILIZE Boston Study.

PubMed

Zhou, Junhong; Habtemariam, Daniel; Iloputaife, Ikechukwu; Lipsitz, Lewis A; Manor, Brad

2017-06-07

Standing postural control is complex, meaning that it is dependent upon numerous inputs interacting across multiple temporal-spatial scales. Diminished physiologic complexity of postural sway has been linked to reduced ability to adapt to stressors. We hypothesized that older adults with lower postural sway complexity would experience more falls in the future. 738 adults aged ≥70 years completed the Short Physical Performance Battery test (SPPB) test and assessments of single and dual-task standing postural control. Postural sway complexity was quantified using multiscale entropy. Falls were subsequently tracked for 48 months. Negative binomial regression demonstrated that older adults with lower postural sway complexity in both single and dual-task conditions had higher future fall rate (incident rate ratio (IRR) = 0.98, p = 0.02, 95% Confidence Limits (CL) = 0.96-0.99). Notably, participants in the lowest quintile of complexity during dual-task standing suffered 48% more falls during the four-year follow-up as compared to those in the highest quintile (IRR = 1.48, p = 0.01, 95% CL = 1.09-1.99). Conversely, traditional postural sway metrics or SPPB performance did not associate with future falls. As compared to traditional metrics, the degree of multi-scale complexity contained within standing postural sway-particularly during dual task conditions- appears to be a better predictor of future falls in older adults.

What factors influence the choice of urban or rural location for future practice of Nepalese medical students? A cross-sectional descriptive study.

PubMed

Sapkota, Bhim Prasad; Amatya, Archana

2015-11-10

Nepal is experiencing a public health issue similar to the rest of the world, i.e., the geographical maldistribution of physicians. Although there is some documentation about the reasons physicians elect to leave Nepal to work abroad, very little is known about the salient factors that influence the choice of an urban versus rural practice setting for those physicians who do not migrate. In recent years, around 1000 medical students became doctors within Nepal, but their distribution in rural locations is not adequate. The purpose of this study was to explore what factors influence the choice of urban or rural location for the future clinical practice of Nepalese medical students in the final year of their program A cross-sectional descriptive study design was used for this study involving Nepalese medical students in their final year of study and currently doing an internship in a medical college. The sample consisted of 393 medical students from four medical colleges in Nepal that were selected randomly. An anonymous self-administered questionnaire was used for data collection. To determine the association with rural location choice for their future practice setting, a comparison was done that involved demographic, socio-economic, and educational factors. Data were entered in EpiData and analyzed by using SPSS version 16. Among the 393 respondents, two thirds were male (66.9%) and more than half were below 25 years of age. Almost all (93%) respondents were single and about two thirds (63.4%) were of Brahmin and Chhetri ethnic origin. About two thirds (64.1%) of the respondents were born in a rural setting, and 58.8% and 53.3% had a place of rearing and permanent address in a rural location, respectively. The predictors of future rural location choice for their clinical practice (based on the bivariate analysis) included: (a) Rural (versus urban) place of birth, place of rearing, and permanent address (b) Source of family income (service, business, and agriculture

Incredible Years parenting interventions: current effectiveness research and future directions.

PubMed

Gardner, Frances; Leijten, Patty

2017-06-01

The Incredible Years parenting intervention is a social learning theory-based programme for reducing children's conduct problems. Dozens of randomized trials, many by independent investigators, find consistent effects of Incredible Years on children's conduct problems across multiple countries and settings. However, in common with other interventions, these average effects hide much variability in the responses of individual children and families. Innovative moderator research is needed to enhance scientific understanding of why individual children and parents respond differently to intervention. Additionally, research is needed to test whether there are ways to make Incredible Years more effective and accessible for families and service providers, especially in low resource settings, by developing innovative delivery systems using new media, and by systematically testing for essential components of parenting interventions. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

The global status of freshwater fish age validation studies and a prioritization framework for future research

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pope, Kevin L.; Hamel, Martin J.; Pegg, Mark A.; Spurgeon, Jonathan J.

2016-01-01

Age information derived from calcified structures is commonly used to estimate recruitment, growth, and mortality for fish populations. Validation of daily or annual marks on age structures is often assumed, presumably due to a lack of general knowledge concerning the status of age validation studies. Therefore, the current status of freshwater fish age validation studies was summarized to show where additional effort is needed, and increase the accessibility of validation studies to researchers. In total, 1351 original peer-reviewed articles were reviewed from freshwater systems that studied age in fish. Periodicity and age validation studies were found for 88 freshwater species comprising 21 fish families. The number of age validation studies has increased over the last 30 years following previous calls for more research; however, few species have validated structures spanning all life stages. In addition, few fishes of conservation concern have validated ageing structures. A prioritization framework, using a combination of eight characteristics, is offered to direct future age validation studies and close the validation information gap. Additional study, using the offered prioritization framework, and increased availability of published studies that incorporate uncertainty when presenting research results dealing with age information are needed.

Decadal Time Scale change in terrestrial plant communities in North American arctic and alpine tundra: A contribution to the International Polar Year Back to the Future Project (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tweedie, C. E.; Ebert-May, D.; Hollister, R. D.; Johnson, D. R.; Lara, M. J.; Villarreal, S.; Spasojevic, M.; Webber, P.

2010-12-01

The International Polar Year-Back to the Future (IPY-BTF) is an endorsed International Polar Year project (IPY project #214). The overarching goal of this program is to determine how key structural and functional characteristics of high latitude/altitude terrestrial ecosystems have changed over the past 25 or more years and assess if such trajectories of change are likely to continue in the future. By rescuing data, revisiting, re-sampling historic research sites and assessing environmental change over time, we aim to provide greater understanding of how tundra is changing and what the possible drivers of these changes are. Resampling of sites established by Patrick J. Webber between 1964 and 1975 in northern Baffin Island, Northern Alaska and in the Rocky Mountains form a key contribution to the BTF project. Here we report on resampling efforts at each of these locations and initial results of a synthesis effort that finds similarities and differences in change between sites. Results suggest that although shifts in plant community composition are detectable at each location, the magnitude and direction of change differ among locations. Vegetation shifts along soil moisture gradients is apparent at most of the sites resampled. Interestingly, however, wet communities seem to have changed more than dry communities in the Arctic locations, while plant communities at the alpine site appear to be becoming more distinct regardless of soil moisture status. Ecosystem function studies performed in conjunction with plant community change suggest that there has been an increase in plant productivity at most sites resampled, especially in wet and mesic land cover types.

Onward to Outcomes in the School of the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Millea, Susan

This paper discusses the results of a study that investigated the effectiveness of a comprehensive school-based service program in Texas. The "School for the Future" project was a 5-year demonstration project in 4 Texas cities that was designed to develop and coordinate health and social services though targeted schools in low income,…

White water: Fifty years of snow research in WRR and the outlook for the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sturm, Matthew

2015-07-01

Over the past 50 years, 239 papers related to snow have been published in Water Resources Research (WRR). Seminal papers on virtually every facet of snow physics and snow water resources have appeared in the journal. These include papers on drifting snow, the snow surface energy balance, the effect of grain size on albedo, chemical elution, water movement through snow, and canopy interception. In particular, papers in WRR have explored the distribution of snow across different landscapes, providing data, process knowledge, and the basis for virtually all of the distributed snow models in use today. In this paper, I review these key contributions and provide some personal thoughts on what is likely to be the focus and nature of papers published in the next few decades, a period that is likely to see an increasing ability to map snow cover in detail, which should serve as a basis for the further development and improvement of snow models. It will also be an uncertain future, with profound changes in snow climatology predicted. I expect WRR will continue to play a key role in documenting and understanding these important cryospheric changes.

Analyzing Future Flooding under Climate Change Scenario using CMIP5 Streamflow Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyaupane, Narayan; Parajuli, Ranjan; Kalra, Ajay

2017-12-01

Flooding is the most severe and costlier natural hazard in US. The effect of climate change has intensified the scenario in recent years. Flood prevention practice along with proper understanding of flooding event can mitigate the risk of such hazard. The flood plain mapping is one of the technique to quantify the severity of the flooding. Carson City, which is one of the agricultural area in the desert of Nevada has experienced peak flood in recent year. The underlying probability distribution for the area, latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) streamflow data of Carson River were analyzed for 27 different statistical distributions. The best fitted distribution underlying was used to forecast the 100yr flood (design flood). The data from 1950-2099 derived from 31 model and total 97 projections were used to predict the future streamflow. Delta change method is adopted to quantify the amount of future (2050-2099) flood. To determine the extent of flooding 3 scenarios (i) historic design flood, (ii) 500yr flood and (iii) future 100yr flood were routed on a HEC-RAS model, prepared using available terrain data. Some of the climate projection shows extreme increase in future design flood. The future design flood could be more than the historic 500yr flood. At the same time, the extent of flooding could go beyond the historic flood of 0.2% annual probability. This study suggests an approach to quantify the future flood and floodplain using climate model projections. The study would provide helpful information to the facility manager, design engineer and stake holders.

Potential Futures for Information.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ackermann, Mark R.

Information is one of the most powerful tools available today. All advances in technology may be used, as David Sarnoff said, for the benefit or harm of society. Information can be used to shape the future by free people, or used to control people by less than benevolent governments, as has been demonstrated since the mid - 1930s, and with growing frequency over the past 50 years. What promised to once set people free and fuel an industrial revolution that might improve the standard of living over most of the world, has also been used to manipulate and enslave entiremore » populations. The future of information is tied to the future of technologies that support the collection of data, processing those data into information and knowledge, and distribution. Technologies supporting the future of information must include technologies that help protect the integrity of data and information, and help to guarantee its discoverability and appropriate availability -- often to the whole of society. This Page Intentionally Left Blank« less

Three-Year Study of Students' Attitudes Toward Physical Education: Grades 4-8.

PubMed

Mercier, Kevin; Donovan, Corinne; Gibbone, Anne; Rozga, Kimberly

2017-09-01

A relationship exists between attitudes toward physical education and future physical activity. The purpose of this study was to examine changes in attitude toward physical education as students progressed from upper elementary school (Grade 4) through middle school (Grade 8). Three cohorts of students (Cohort 1, Grades 4-6, n = 96; Cohort 2, Grades 5-7, n = 71; and Cohort 3, Grades 6-8, n = 73) were each followed for 3 years to examine changes in attitudes toward physical education. After an initial increase from Grade 4 to Grade 5, a significant decrease was observed from Grades 5 to 8 in students' positive attitudes toward physical education, with a faster rate of change for girls than boys. This longitudinal study provides further insights regarding the attitudes of students as they progress from Grade 4 to Grade 8 and expands on previous findings identifying decreasing positive attitudes toward physical education as students age, particularly for girls. The results provide evidence to support targeted interventions.

The SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Study: Rationale, Findings, and Future Directions

PubMed Central

Hamman, Richard F.; Dabelea, Dana; D’Agostino, Ralph B.; Dolan, Lawrence; Imperatore, Giuseppina; Lawrence, Jean M.; Linder, Barbara; Marcovina, Santica M.; Mayer-Davis, Elizabeth J.; Pihoker, Catherine; Rodriguez, Beatriz L.; Saydah, Sharon

2014-01-01

The SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth (SEARCH) study was initiated in 2000, with funding from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and support from the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, to address major knowledge gaps in the understanding of childhood diabetes. SEARCH is being conducted at five sites across the U.S. and represents the largest, most diverse study of diabetes among U.S. youth. An active registry of youth diagnosed with diabetes at age <20 years allows the assessment of prevalence (in 2001 and 2009), annual incidence (since 2002), and trends by age, race/ethnicity, sex, and diabetes type. Prevalence increased significantly from 2001 to 2009 for both type 1 and type 2 diabetes in most age, sex, and race/ethnic groups. SEARCH has also established a longitudinal cohort to assess the natural history and risk factors for acute and chronic diabetes-related complications as well as the quality of care and quality of life of persons with diabetes from diagnosis into young adulthood. Many youth with diabetes, particularly those from low-resourced racial/ethnic minority populations, are not meeting recommended guidelines for diabetes care. Markers of micro- and macrovascular complications are evident in youth with either diabetes type, highlighting the seriousness of diabetes in this contemporary cohort. This review summarizes the study methods, describes key registry and cohort findings and their clinical and public health implications, and discusses future directions. PMID:25414389

Thirtyfour years of liposuction: past, present and future.

PubMed

Sterodimas, A; Boriani, F; Magarakis, E; Nicaretta, B; Pereira, L H; Illouz, Y G

2012-03-01

Initial, variably successful attempts of fat sculpting date back to the beginning of the 20th Century, but Gerard Illouz was the first to introduce the modern, safe, widespread method of liposuction. Preoperative injection of local anaesthesia, saline, distilled water, adrenaline and hyaluronidase, defined wet technique, established as a safe and effective adjunct to lipoaspiration. This procedure was initially based on an automatic pump system, but then the accuracy of syringe aspiration was popularized by Toledo in the eighties. Liposuction in the subcutaneous tissue, just 3-4 mm deep to dermis, also called superficial liposuction, is a modern effective evolution of the technique, but requires a good mastery in order to avoid disfiguring outcomes. Ultrasound and laser lipoplasty methods have provided further advancement in the range of technical choices offered to the plastic surgeon. Liposuction is a purely surgical procedure, and as such, carries risks of minor and major complications. In the nineties, an interplay between abdominoplasty and abdominal liposuction as simultaneous procedures, also called lipoabdominoplasty, has become more and more popular. Reinjection of the harvested fat with the purpose of liposculpture for both reconstructive and cosmetic indications is a relatively recent development which has established as a successful, world-wide accepted procedure. Adipose stem cells, extracted from the unlimited source represented by human adipose tissue, are a great promise for future tissue-engineering. Liposuction has nowadays become a safe, effective, popular procedure for contouring adipose tissue and human body in general, in many reconstructive and cosmetic indications.

Examining bidirectional relationships between parenting and child maladjustment in youth with autism spectrum disorder: A 9-year longitudinal study.

PubMed

Dieleman, Lisa M; De Pauw, Sarah S W; Soenens, Bart; Beyers, Wim; Prinzie, Peter

2017-10-01

Longitudinal bidirectional effects between parents and children are usually studied in samples of typically developing children, but remain understudied in families with a child with autism spectrum disorder. This three-wave longitudinal study examined how parents and children with autism spectrum disorder influence one another, relying on parent reports of parenting behaviors and children's problem behaviors across 9 years, in a sample of 139 youngsters (M age Time 1 = 10.2 years, 83% boys). Cross-lagged analyses indicated that children's externalizing problems at Time 1 predicted negative controlling parenting 6 years later (Time 2) that in turn predicted externalizing problems 3 years later (Time 3). Negative parental control at Time 1 also increased the risk for internalizing problems at Time 2. It was surprising that externalizing problems at Time 2 also predicted positive parental involvement at Time 3. Thus, although results indicate that externalizing problems generally elicit maladaptive reactions in parents, this study also suggests that parents adjust their way of reacting to externalizing child problems as their child reaches adolescence/emerging adulthood. Implications for future research on parenting dynamics in families with a child with autism spectrum disorder are discussed.

Genetic studies of Crohn's disease: Past, present and future

PubMed Central

Liu, Jimmy Z.; Anderson, Carl A.

2014-01-01

The exact aetiology of Crohn's disease is unknown, though it is clear from early epidemiological studies that a combination of genetic and environmental risk factors contributes to an individual's disease susceptibility. Here, we review the history of gene-mapping studies of Crohn's disease, from the linkage-based studies that first implicated the NOD2 locus, through to modern-day genome-wide association studies that have discovered over 140 loci associated with Crohn's disease and yielded novel insights into the biological pathways underlying pathogenesis. We describe on-going and future gene-mapping studies that utilise next generation sequencing technology to pinpoint causal variants and identify rare genetic variation underlying Crohn's disease risk. We comment on the utility of genetic markers for predicting an individual's disease risk and discuss their potential for identifying novel drug targets and influencing disease management. Finally, we describe how these studies have shaped and continue to shape our understanding of the genetic architecture of Crohn's disease. PMID:24913378

Onset, prognosis and risk factors for widespread pain in schoolchildren: a prospective 4-year follow-up study.

PubMed

Mikkelsson, Marja; El-Metwally, Ashraf; Kautiainen, Hannu; Auvinen, Anssi; Macfarlane, Gary J; Salminen, Jouko J

2008-09-15

Little is known about the epidemiology of widespread pain (WSP) in children and adolescents. This study aims to estimate the new-onset and prognosis of WSP in schoolchildren and investigate factors predicting its development. A prospective study was conducted among 1756 schoolchildren (age 10-12 years) in Southern Finland. At baseline, information was collected on WSP, regional musculoskeletal pain symptoms, depressiveness, fatigue, sleep problems, physical activity and joint hypermobility. These children were contacted again 1 year and 4 years later to determine the outcome and the new-onset of WSP. A total of 1282 children (73%) of the baseline study population were found at both follow-ups. Of the children who had WSP at baseline, 31% and 30% reported persistence/recurrence of symptoms at 1- and 4-year follow-up, respectively. However, only 10% of these children reported WSP at both 1 and 4 years. Of the children who were free of WSP at baseline, 18% reported new-onset WSP at 1-year follow-up and 3% reported these symptoms at both follow-up times. The independent baseline risk factors of WSP were older age (OR 1.3 95% CI 1.0-1.8), female gender (OR 1.4, 1.1-1.9), depressiveness (OR 1.5, 1.1-2.2) and regional back pain symptoms (Neck pain: OR 1.7, 1.1-2.4; Upper back pain: OR 2.1, 1.1-4.1; Lower back pain: OR 3.0, 1.6-5.7). Both psychological factors and somatic pain symptoms predict future development of WSP in adolescents.

The Impact of Future Emissions Changes on Air Pollution Concentrations and Related Human Health Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikolajczyk, U.; Suppan, P.; Williams, M.

2015-12-01

Quantification of potential health benefits of reductions in air pollution on the local scale is becoming increasingly important. The aim of this study is to conduct health impact assessment (HIA) by utilizing regionally and spatially specific data in order to assess the influence of future emission scenarios on human health. In the first stage of this investigation, a modeling study was carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with Chemistry to estimate ambient concentrations of air pollutants for the baseline year 2009, and for the future emission scenarios in southern Germany. Anthropogenic emissions for the baseline year 2009 are derived from the emission inventory provided by the Netherlands Organization of Applied Scientific Research (TNO) (Denier van der Gon et al., 2010). For Germany, the TNO emissions were replaced by gridded emission data with a high spatial resolution of 1/64 x 1/64 degrees. Future air quality simulations are carried out under different emission scenarios, which reflect possible energy and climate measures in year 2030. The model set-up included a nesting approach, where three domains with horizontal resolution of 18 km, 6 km and 2 km were defined. The simulation results for the baseline year 2009 are used to quantify present-day health burdens. Concentration-response functions (CRFs) for PM2.5 and NO2 from the WHO Health risks of air Pollution in Europe (HRAPIE) project were applied to population-weighted mean concentrations to estimate relative risks and hence to determine numbers of attributable deaths and associated life-years lost. In the next step, future health impacts of projected concentrations were calculated taking into account different emissions scenarios. The health benefits that we assume with air pollution reductions can be used to provide options for future policy decisions to protect public health.

Silicon materials outlook study for 1980-1985 calendar years

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Costogue, E.; Ferber, R.; Hasbach, W.; Pellin, R.; Yaws, C.

1979-01-01

The polycrystalline silicon industry was studied in relation to future market needs. Analysis of the data obtained indicates that there is a high probability of polycrystalline silicon shortage by the end of 1982 and a strong seller's market after 1981 which will foster price competition for available silicon.

Building Colleges for the Future: Pedagogical and Ideological Spaces

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Rob

2017-01-01

This article focuses on the "Building Colleges for the Future" (BCF) initiative (2008) which saw a wave of new-build Further Education (FE) colleges spring up across England in the final years of the New Labour government. It draws on qualitative data from a research study focusing on four new-build colleges in the West Midlands of…

Future Time Perspective and Motivational Categories in Argentinean Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vazquez, Stella Maris; Rapetti, Maria Virginia

2006-01-01

This study is based on a sample of 332 Argentinean teenagers in their last year of secondary school. In the context of the relational theory of motivation, an attempt is made to determine the motivational categories best predicting Future Time Perspective (FTP) extension. The influence of the sex, locus of control, social class, and school ethos…

Three Thousand Futures. The Next Twenty Years for Higher Education. Final Report of the Carnegie Council on Policy Studies in Higher Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carnegie Council on Policy Studies in Higher Education, Berkeley, CA.

In this look at the near future of higher education, and in light of probable declining enrollments and resources, two perspectives are given, both drawn from existing literature. The first sets forth some of the fears of higher education professionals in one possible, if extreme, scenario; the second, some of their hopes in another. Among the…

A holistic approach to anesthesia-induced neurotoxicity and its implications for future mechanistic studies.

PubMed

Zanghi, Christine N; Jevtovic-Todorovic, Vesna

The year 2016 marked the 15th anniversary since anesthesia-induced developmental neurotoxicity and its resulting cognitive dysfunction were first described. Since that time, multiple scientific studies have supported these original findings and investigated possible mechanisms behind anesthesia-induced neurotoxicity. This paper reviews the existing mechanistic literature on anesthesia-induced neurotoxicity in the context of a holistic approach that emphasizes the importance of both neuronal and non-neuronal cells during early postnatal development. Sections are divided into key stages in early neural development; apoptosis, neurogenesis, migration, differentiation, synaptogenesis, gliogenesis, myelination and blood brain barrier/cerebrovasculature. In addition, the authors combine the established literature in the field of anesthesia-induced neurotoxicity with literature from other related scientific fields to speculate on the potential role of non-neuronal cells and to generate new future hypotheses for understanding anesthetic toxicity and its application to the practice of pediatric anesthesia. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Futuring for Future Ready Librarians

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Figueroa, Miguel A.

2018-01-01

Futurists and foresight professionals offer several guiding principles for thinking about the future. These principles can help people to think about the future and become more powerful players in shaping the preferred futures they want for themselves and their communities. The principles also fit in well as strategies to support the Future Ready…

Tracking of overweight and obesity from early childhood to adolescence in a population-based cohort - the Tromsø Study, Fit Futures.

PubMed

Evensen, Elin; Wilsgaard, Tom; Furberg, Anne-Sofie; Skeie, Guri

2016-05-10

Obesity is a serious childhood health problem today. Studies have shown that overweight and obesity tend to be stable (track) from birth, through childhood and adolescence, to adulthood. However, existing studies are heterogeneous; there is still no consensus on the strength of the association between high birth weight or high body mass index (BMI) early in life and overweight and obesity later in life, nor on the appropriate age or target group for intervention and prevention efforts. This study aimed to determine the presence and degree of tracking of overweight and obesity and development in BMI and BMI standard deviation scores (SDS) from childhood to adolescence in the Fit Futures cohort from North Norway. Using a retrospective cohort design, data on 532 adolescents from the Fit Futures cohort were supplemented with height and weight data from childhood health records, and BMI was calculated at 2-4, 5-7, and 15-17 years of age. Participants were categorized into weight classes by BMI according to the International Obesity Taskforce's age- and sex-specific cut-off values for children 2-18 years of age (thinness: adult BMI <18.5 kg/m(2), normal weight: adult BMI ≥18.5- < 25 kg/m(2), overweight: adult BMI ≥25- < 30 kg/m(2), obesity: adult BMI ≥30 kg/m(2)). Non-parametric tests, Cohen's weighted Kappa statistic and logistic regression were used in the analyses. The prevalence of overweight and obesity combined, increased from 11.5 % at 2-4 years of age and 13.7 % at 5-7 years of age, to 20.1 % at 15-17 years of age. Children who were overweight/obese at 5-7 years of age had increased odds of being overweight/obese at 15-17 years of age, compared to thin/normal weight children (crude odds ratio: 11.1, 95 % confidence interval: 6.4-19.2). Six out of 10 children who were overweight/obese at 5-7 years of age were overweight/obese at 15-17 years of age. The prevalence of overweight and obesity increased with age. We found a moderate indication of

Teacher Education: Challenge for the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Quisenberry, Nancy L.

1987-01-01

Examines recent criticisms of teacher preparation and considers changes in teacher education over the past 10 years. Provides suggestions concerning future directions for teacher education programs. (PCB)

Electrification Futures Study: A Technical Evaluation of the Impacts of an

Science.gov Websites

Technical Evaluation of the Impacts of an Electrified U.S. Energy System Electrification Futures Study: A Technical Evaluation of the Impacts of an Electrified U.S. Energy System Illustration showing various impacts of widespread electrification in the United States. In addition to NREL, the research team

The future of hazardous chemical safety in China: Opportunities, problems, challenges and tasks.

PubMed

Wang, Bing; Wu, Chao; Reniers, Genserik; Huang, Lang; Kang, Liangguo; Zhang, Laobing

2018-06-20

China is a major country producing and using hazardous chemicals. Unfortunately, the hazardous chemical industry is still one of the most high-risk industries in China. In recent years, especially after two devastating hazardous chemical accidents, namely "Qingdao 11.2 Crude Oil Leaking and Explosion Accident" and "Tianjin Port 8.12 Fire and Explosion Accident" which occurred in 2013 and 2015 respectively, China has attached great importance to hazardous chemical safety. The period between 2016 and 2017 is a crucial period for the future direction of hazardous chemical safety in China because China released a series of important government documents (such as 'Thirteenth Five-Year (2016-2020) Plan for Hazardous Chemical Safety' and 'Comprehensive Plan for Hazardous Chemical Safety Management (December 2016-November 2019)') to promote hazardous chemical safety in the future. What is the future development of China's hazardous chemical safety? To answer this question, this paper attempts to briefly analyze and introduce the opportunities, problems, challenges and tasks of the future of safety with hazardous chemical industrial activities in China, according to the current situation of hazardous chemical safety in China and using the latest government documents and studies. Obviously, this study can provide useful evidence and suggestions for the future of safety management in the hazardous chemical industry both within China and in other countries. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Future self-continuity: how conceptions of the future self transform intertemporal choice

PubMed Central

Hershfield, Hal E.

2013-01-01

With life expectancy dramatically increasing throughout much of the world, people have to make choices with a longer future in mind than they ever had to before. Yet, many indicators suggest that undersaving for the long term often occurs: in America, for instance, many individuals will not be able to maintain their preretirement standard of living in retirement. Previous research has tried to understand problems with intertemporal choice by focusing on the ways in which people treat present and future rewards. In this paper, the author reviews a burgeoning body of theoretical and empirical work that takes a different viewpoint, one that focuses on how perceptions of the self over time can dramatically affect decision making. Specifically, when the future self shares similarities with the present self, when it is viewed in vivid and realistic terms, and when it is seen in a positive light, people are more willing to make choices today that may benefit them at some point in the years to come. PMID:22023566

Insights into future air quality: Analysis of future emissions scenarios using the MARKAL model

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation will provide an update on the development and evaluation of four Air Quality Futures (AQF) scenarios. These scenarios represent widely different assumptions regarding the evolution of the U.S. energy system over the next 40 years. The primary differences between...

A retrospective study on anthropometrical, physical fitness, and motor coordination characteristics that influence dropout, contract status, and first-team playing time in high-level soccer players aged eight to eighteen years.

PubMed

Deprez, Dieter N; Fransen, Job; Lenoir, Matthieu; Philippaerts, Renaat M; Vaeyens, Roel

2015-06-01

The goal of this article was twofold, and a 2-study approach was conducted. The first study aimed to expose the anthropometrical, physical performance, and motor coordination characteristics that influence dropout from a high-level soccer training program in players aged 8-16 years. The mixed-longitudinal sample included 388 Belgian youth soccer players who were assigned to either a "club group" or a "dropout group." In the second study, cross-sectional data of anthropometry, physical performance, and motor coordination were retrospectively explored to investigate which characteristics influence future contract status (contract vs. no contract group) and first-team playing time for 72 high-level youth soccer players (mean age = 16.2 years). Generally, club players outperformed their dropout peers for motor coordination, soccer-specific aerobic endurance, and speed. Anthropometry and estimated maturity status did not discriminate between club and dropout players. Contract players jumped further (p = 0.011) and had faster times for a 5-m sprint (p = 0.041) than no contract players. The following prediction equation explains 16.7% of the variance in future playing minutes in adolescent youth male soccer players: -2,869.3 + 14.6 × standing broad jump. Practitioners should include the evaluation of motor coordination, aerobic endurance, and speed performances to distinguish high-level soccer players further succeeding a talent development program and future dropout players, between 8 and 16 years. From the age of 16 years, measures of explosivity are supportive when selecting players into a future professional soccer career.

Gaudi Evolution for Future Challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clemencic, M.; Hegner, B.; Leggett, C.

2017-10-01

The LHCb Software Framework Gaudi was initially designed and developed almost twenty years ago, when computing was very different from today. It has also been used by a variety of other experiments, including ATLAS, Daya Bay, GLAST, HARP, LZ, and MINERVA. Although it has been always actively developed all these years, stability and backward compatibility have been favoured, reducing the possibilities of adopting new techniques, like multithreaded processing. R&D efforts like GaudiHive have however shown its potential to cope with the new challenges. In view of the LHC second Long Shutdown approaching and to prepare for the computing challenges for the Upgrade of the collider and the detectors, now is a perfect moment to review the design of Gaudi and plan future developments of the project. To do this LHCb, ATLAS and the Future Circular Collider community joined efforts to bring Gaudi forward and prepare it for the upcoming needs of the experiments. We present here how Gaudi will evolve in the next years and the long term development plans.

State of Rhode Island Department of Administration Office of Library and Information Services. Five-Year State Plan for the Fiscal Years 2008 to 2012

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rhode Island Office of Library and Information Services, 2008

2008-01-01

In preparation for its Five-Year Plan for the years 2008 through 2012, the Rhode Island Office of Library and Information Services has reviewed a variety of information resources, including studies, publications, surveys and stakeholder meetings, to assist in understanding the state, its people, its future and the potential role of libraries. This…

[Academic future of children treated for brain tumors. Single-center study of 27 children].

PubMed

Zucchinelli, V; Bouffet, E

2000-09-01

Brain tumours constitute the most common type of solid malignancy in childhood. Despite intensive efforts developed since the mid-1970s in paediatric neuro-oncology, survivors still have a wide range of sequelae leading to frequent failure in academic achievements. Very few studies have detailed the educational outcome of these children. The study was based on a questionnaire sent to the parents of children diagnosed with a brain tumour and treated at the Centre Léon-Bérard between 1987 and 1993. Children had to be under 12 years old at the time of diagnosis and with at least three years of follow-up since diagnosis. Questions focused on the child's education before diagnosis, his progress during and after treatment, the measures taken when the child experienced learning difficulties and their consequences on the child's socioprofessional integration. Twenty-seven responses were obtained out of 34 questionnaires. Twenty-six children were reported to experience learning difficulties. Only four children had a normal education. The main problems are associated with slowness, memory and comprehension difficulties. The main disciplines affected are mathematics, reading and spelling. Fifteen children did benefit from extra support, with large interindividual variations in the amount and the quality of this support. Half of the parents play an active role in their child's extra support. This study provides additional information to previous reports on progressive I.Q. decline following the treatment of a brain tumour in childhood. Learning difficulties are nearly constant and adversely influence the child's curriculum. They also affect the parents who experience questions about the future of their ideal child. The severity and complexity of these learning difficulties urge for an early multidisciplinary educational and psychological management. The main characteristics of these remedial efforts should be assessed in prospective studies.

Gender and Diversity in Organizations: Past, Present, and Future Directions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murrell, Audrey J.; James, Erika Hayes

2001-01-01

Introduces a special issue on how the nature of organizations has changed in recent years and implications of these changes for the future. Discusses key issues that have been studied on gender and diversity in organizations (discrimination, affirmative action, barriers to career advancement, and sexual harassment). Notes strategies for enhancing…

Prediction of future risk of insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome based on Korean boy's metabolite profiling.

PubMed

Lee, AeJin; Jang, Han Byul; Ra, Moonjin; Choi, Youngshim; Lee, Hye-Ja; Park, Ju Yeon; Kang, Jae Heon; Park, Kyung-Hee; Park, Sang Ick; Song, Jihyun

2015-01-01

Childhood obesity is strongly related to future insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome. Thus, identifying early biomarkers of obesity-related diseases based on metabolic profiling is useful to control future metabolic disorders. We compared metabolic profiles between obese and normal-weight children and investigated specific biomarkers of future insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome. In all, 186 plasma metabolites were analysed at baseline and after 2 years in 109 Korean boys (age 10.5±0.4 years) from the Korean Child Obesity Cohort Study using the AbsoluteIDQ™ p180 Kit. We observed that levels of 41 metabolites at baseline and 40 metabolites at follow-up were significantly altered in obese children (p<0.05). Obese children showed significantly higher levels of branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs) and several acylcarnitines and lower levels of acyl-alkyl phosphatidylcholines. Also, baseline BCAAs were significantly positively correlated with both homeostasis model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and continuous metabolic risk score at the 2-year follow-up. In logistic regression analyses with adjustments for degree of obesity at baseline, baseline BCAA concentration, greater than the median value, was identified as a predictor of future risk of insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome. High BCAA concentration could be "early" biomarkers for predicting future metabolic diseases. Copyright © 2014 Asian Oceanian Association for the Study of Obesity. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

FORTY YEARS OF SCHOOL PLANT DISSERTATIONS. A REVIEW WITH SUGGESTIONS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

CLASEN, ROBERT E.

A BIBLIOGRAPHIC REVIEW OF PUBLISHED AND UNPUBLISHED DISSERTATIONS RELATED TO SCHOOL PLANTS IS COMPILED BY YEARS BEGINNING WITH STUDIES PRODUCED IN 1921 AND IS CROSS INDEXED BY TOPIC. IT REVIEWS THE SCHOOL PLANT PROBLEMS MOST INVESTIGATED BY STUDENTS. A BRIEF HISTORY OF SCHOOL BUILDING DEVELOPMENT IS PRESENTED IN LIGHT OF CORRESPONDING ECONOMIC AND…

Charting the Future of US Higher Education: A Look at the Spellings Report Ten Years Later

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Neuman, W. Russell

2017-01-01

September marked the tenth anniversary of the release of "A Test of Leadership: Charting the Future of US Higher Education," the report of the Secretary of Education's Commission on the Future of Higher Education, also known as the Spellings Commission. Blue ribbon panels rarely say much that is new or stimulate much sustained attention,…

Another 25 Years of AIED? Challenges and Opportunities for Intelligent Educational Technologies of the Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pinkwart, Niels

2016-01-01

This paper attempts an analysis of some current trends and future developments in computer science, education, and educational technology. Based on these trends, two possible future predictions of AIED are presented in the form of a utopian vision and a dystopian vision. A comparison of these two visions leads to seven challenges that AIED might…

Living with mentally ill parents during adolescence: a risk factor for future welfare dependence? A longitudinal, population-based study.

PubMed

Homlong, Lisbeth; Rosvold, Elin Olaug; Sagatun, Åse; Wentzel-Larsen, Tore; Haavet, Ole Rikard

2015-04-22

Living with parents suffering from mental illness can influence adolescents' health and well-being, and adverse effects may persist into adulthood. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between parents' mental health problems reported by their 15-16-year-old adolescents, the potential protective effect of social support and long-term dependence on public welfare assistance in young adulthood. The study linked data from a youth health survey conducted during 1999-2004 among approximately 14 000 15-16-year-olds to data from high-quality, compulsory Norwegian registries that followed each participant through February 2010. Cox regression was used to compute hazard ratios for long-term welfare dependence in young adulthood based on several risk factors in 15-16-year-olds, including their parents' mental health problems. Of the total study population, 10% (1397) reported having parents who suffered from some level of mental health problems during the 12 months prior to the baseline survey; 3% (420) reported that their parents had frequent mental health problems. Adolescent report of their parents' mental health problems was associated with the adolescents' long-term welfare dependence during follow-up, with hazard ratios (HRs) of 1.49 (CI 1.29-1.71), 1.82 (1.44-2.31) and 2.13 (CI 1.59-2.85) for some trouble, moderate trouble and frequent trouble, respectively, compared with report of no trouble with mental health problems. The associations remained significant after adjusting for socio-demographic factors, although additionally correcting for the adolescents' own health status accounted for most of the effect. Perceived support from family, friends, classmates and teachers was analysed separately and each was associated with a lower risk of later welfare dependence. Family and classmate support remained a protective factor for welfare dependence after correcting for all study covariates (HR 0.84, CI 0.78-0.90 and 0.80, 0.75-0.85). We did not find

Focus on the future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hanner, Martha S.

1988-01-01

An assessment is made of what was learned from Halley and recommendations are made for future directions for infrared studies of comets and supporting lab investigations. The following issues are addressed: (1) What steps can be taken to achieve consistent interpretation of Halley infrared data; (2) How successful has the Halley Watch been for infrared studies; (3) What supporting lab research is needed; (4) What are the key infrared observations needed for future comets; and (5) How do current and future NASA programs relate to comet studies.

Adolescents' Religiousness and Substance Use Are Linked via Afterlife Beliefs and Future Orientation.

PubMed

Holmes, Christopher J; Kim-Spoon, Jungmeen

2017-10-01

Although religiousness has been identified as a protective factor against adolescent substance use, processes through which these effects may operate are unclear. The current longitudinal study examined sequential mediation of afterlife beliefs and future orientation in the relation between adolescent religiousness and cigarette, alcohol, and marijuana use. Participants included 131 adolescents (mean age at Time 1 = 12 years) at three time points with approximately two year time intervals. Structural equation modeling indicated that higher religiousness at Time 1 was associated with higher afterlife beliefs at Time 2. Higher afterlife beliefs at Time 2 were associated with higher future orientation at Time 2, which in turn was associated with lower use of cigarettes, alcohol, and marijuana at Time 3. Our findings highlight the roles of afterlife beliefs and future orientation in explaining the beneficial effects of religiousness against adolescent substance use.

A population-based longitudinal study on the implications of demographics on future blood supply.

PubMed

Greinacher, Andreas; Weitmann, Kerstin; Lebsa, Anne; Alpen, Ulf; Gloger, Doris; Stangenberg, Wolfgang; Kiefel, Volker; Hoffmann, Wolfgang

2016-12-01

Changes in demographics with increases in older age groups and decreases in younger age groups imply an increased demand for blood transfusions paralleled by a decrease in the population eligible for blood donation. However, more restrictive transfusion triggers and the patient blood management initiative also reduce the demand for red blood cells (RBCs). Eastern Germany is a model region for the impact of demographic changes, which manifest in this region approximately 10 years earlier than in other regions due to the 50% birth rate decline after 1989. We report the 2010 longitudinal 5-year follow-up of the study assessing all whole blood donations and RBC transfusions in Mecklenburg-West Pomerania. We compared the projections that were made 5 years ago with: 1) the current age structure of the blood donor and transfusion recipient populations and 2) its impact on blood demand and blood donation numbers in specific age groups. Transfusion rates were lower and blood donation rates were higher than predicted in 2005. Although transfusion rates/1000 decreased in nearly all age groups, the overall annual transfusion rate increased to 66.4 RBC units/1000 (in 2005, 62.2/1000) due to the absolute increase in the elderly population. Despite a 7.4% decline in the population 18 to 65 years of age, whole blood donations increased by 11.7% between 2005 and 2010, but thereafter decreased by 21% (first-time donors by 39.4%), reflecting the effect of the post-1990 birth rate decline on the donor population. Changes in demography and medical practice impact the delicate balance between available blood supply and potential future transfusion needs. In times of pronounced demographic changes, regular monitoring of the blood demand and age structure of blood recipients and donors is required to allow strategic planning to prevent blood shortages or overproduction. © 2016 AABB.

Forecasting of future earthquakes in the northeast region of India considering energy released concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarola, Amit; Sil, Arjun

2018-04-01

This study presents the forecasting of time and magnitude size of the next earthquake in the northeast India, using four probability distribution models (Gamma, Lognormal, Weibull and Log-logistic) considering updated earthquake catalog of magnitude Mw ≥ 6.0 that occurred from year 1737-2015 in the study area. On the basis of past seismicity of the region, two types of conditional probabilities have been estimated using their best fit model and respective model parameters. The first conditional probability is the probability of seismic energy (e × 1020 ergs), which is expected to release in the future earthquake, exceeding a certain level of seismic energy (E × 1020 ergs). And the second conditional probability is the probability of seismic energy (a × 1020 ergs/year), which is expected to release per year, exceeding a certain level of seismic energy per year (A × 1020 ergs/year). The logarithm likelihood functions (ln L) were also estimated for all four probability distribution models. A higher value of ln L suggests a better model and a lower value shows a worse model. The time of the future earthquake is forecasted by dividing the total seismic energy expected to release in the future earthquake with the total seismic energy expected to release per year. The epicentre of recently occurred 4 January 2016 Manipur earthquake (M 6.7), 13 April 2016 Myanmar earthquake (M 6.9) and the 24 August 2016 Myanmar earthquake (M 6.8) are located in zone Z.12, zone Z.16 and zone Z.15, respectively and that are the identified seismic source zones in the study area which show that the proposed techniques and models yield good forecasting accuracy.

Development of Advanced Technologies to Reduce Design, Fabrication and Construction Costs for Future Nuclear Power Plants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DiNunzio, Camillo A.; Gupta, Abhinav; Golay, Michael

2002-11-30

This report presents a summation of the third and final year of a three-year investigation into methods and technologies for substantially reducing the capital costs and total schedule for future nuclear plants. In addition, this is the final technical report for the three-year period of studies.

Long-term life and partnership satisfaction in infertile patients: a 5-year longitudinal study.

PubMed

Schanz, Stefan; Reimer, Thorisa; Eichner, Martin; Hautzinger, Martin; Häfner, Hans-Martin; Fierlbeck, Gerhard

2011-08-01

To describe the long-term effects of infertility on life and partnership satisfaction. Longitudinal cohort study. A university outpatient andrology and gynecology infertility clinic. 275 men and 272 women treated for infertility between August 2000 and December 2001. None. The Life Satisfaction Questionnaire (FLZ), the Partnership Questionnaire (PFB), and sociodemographic items at baseline (T1) and 5 years later (T2). Compared with a representative sample, our male and female participants had higher Finance and Partnership scores and lower Health scores on the FLZ at T1. They also had markedly higher PFB scores, with the exception of Conflict Behavior. After 5 years (T2), 101 men and 113 women rated the Partnership and Sexuality FLZ subscales as well as all the PFB subscales statistically significantly lower than at baseline. Only the women rated the Self-esteem FLZ subscale lower than at baseline (T1). Participants who became parents had lower Leisure and Partnership FLZ subscale scores, and fathers had lower Finance FLZ subscale scores. Satisfaction declined over 5 years for both men and women, but only in the partnership-related domains. Women were more affected than men. The success of infertility treatment had only a minor influence on a couple's future satisfaction. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Renal function replacement by hemodialysis: forty-year anniversary and a glimpse into the future at hand.

PubMed

Catapano, Gerardo; Buscaroli, Andrea

2017-07-05

From its introduction in 1943 and until the late 1970s, hemodialysis (HD) has been a lengthy and cumbersome treatment administered by a few skilled physicians and technicians to a very limited number of terminal kidney patients. The technological innovations introduced over the years made HD a treatment administered and supervised by nursing personnel to a very large numbers of kidney patients, hopefully until recovery of kidney functions or kidney transplantation. In 2013, it is estimated that 2.250.00 kidney patients were treated worldwide, and their number is steadily increasing. Shortage of transplant kidneys and quality of current treatments has contributed to increasing the survival of HD patients. Today, it is not unusual to find patients who have been on HD for longer than twenty years. All this generated the feeling that performance of membranes and dialysis technology has reached its limit. Recently, the increasing economic burden of healthcare caused by people ageing and the increasing incidence of degenerative diseases (e.g. diabetes and cardiovascular diseases), and the economic crisis has pushed many governments and health insurances to cut resources for healthcare. The main consequence is that investments in research and development in HD have been significantly reduced. The question is whether there is indeed no need for innovation in HD.In this paper, it is discussed how the paradigm of HD has changed and what possibly are now the drivers for innovation in HD. A few ideas are proposed that could be developed by adapting existing technologies to the future needs of HD.

Children's success at detecting circular explanations and their interest in future learning.

PubMed

Mills, Candice M; Danovitch, Judith H; Rowles, Sydney P; Campbell, Ian L

2017-10-01

These studies explore elementary-school-aged children's ability to evaluate circular explanations and whether they respond to receiving weak explanations by expressing interest in additional learning. In the first study, 6-, 8-, and 10-year-olds (n = 53) heard why questions about unfamiliar animals. For each question, they rated the quality of single explanations and later selected the best explanation between pairs of circular and noncircular explanations. When judging single explanations, 8- and 10-year-olds, and to some extent 6-year-olds, provided higher ratings for noncircular explanations compared to circular ones. When selecting between pairs of explanations, all age groups preferred noncircular explanations to circular ones, but older children did so more consistently than 6-year-olds. Children who recognized the weakness of the single circular explanations were more interested in receiving additional information about the question topics. In Study 2, all three age groups (n = 87) provided higher ratings for noncircular explanations compared to circular ones when listening to responses to how questions, but older children showed a greater distinction in their ratings than 6-year-olds. Moreover, the link between recognizing circular explanations as weak and interest in future learning could not be accounted for solely by individual differences in verbal intelligence. These findings illustrate the developmental trajectory of explanation evaluation and support that recognition of weak explanations is linked to interest in future learning across the elementary years. Implications for education are discussed.

Chemical warfare, past and future. Study project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tzihor, A.

1992-05-15

World War I was arena for the first use of chemical warfare. The enormous tactical success brought about by this first time use of chemical weapons caused the continued development of more sophisticated tactics and weapons in this category of unconventional warfare. This phenomenon has carried through to today. However, at present, because of technological developments, the global economic situation, and political factors, coupled with the inability of the western world to control the proliferation of chemical weapons, a situation weapon of mass destruction. Recent use by Iraq against Kurdish civilian indicates that chemical warfare is no longer limited tomore » the battlefield. The western nations have a need to understand the risk. This paper conducts an analysis of past lessons and the factors which will affect the use of chemical warfare in the future. From this analysis, the paper reaches conclusions concerning the significant threat chemical weapons pose for the entire world in the not too distant future.« less

Thirty years from now: future physics contributions in nuclear medicine.

PubMed

Bailey, Dale L

2014-12-01

This paper is the first in a series of invited perspectives by pioneers of nuclear medicine imaging and physics. A medical physicist and a nuclear medicine physician each take a backward and a forward look at the contributions of physics to nuclear medicine. Here, we provide a forward look from the medical physicist's perspective. The author examines a number of developments in nuclear medicine and discusses the ways in which physics has contributed to these. Future developments are postulated in the context of an increasingly personalised approach to medical diagnostics and therapies. A skill set for the next generation of medical physicists in nuclear medicine is proposed in the context of the increasing complexity of 'Molecular Imaging' in the next three decades. The author sees a shift away from 'traditional' roles in instrumentation QA to more innovative approaches in understanding radiobiology and human disease.

Parental narratives about genetic testing for hearing loss: a one year follow up study.

PubMed

Kaimal, Girija; Steinberg, Annie G; Ennis, Sara; Harasink, Sue Moyer; Ewing, Rachel; Li, Yuelin

2007-12-01

Few studies examine whether and how parental attitudes towards genetic testing change over time. In this study we interviewed parents of 14 children with newly identified hearing loss at two time points: after referral to genetics and 1 year later. Qualitative analyses of parental narratives indicate that parental attitudes did not change significantly over this time. Parents who perceived genetic testing to be useful continued to value it after testing, while parents who did not perceive it as being useful for their child's future held the same view a year later. The only parents who changed their views regarding the usefulness of genetic testing for hearing loss were those who reported that their children underwent significant changes in their hearing loss or were faced with other life threatening conditions. Parents were also often unaware of the role of the genetic counselor and how genetic counseling could help address many of their lingering questions and concerns. These emergent themes indicate the need for geneticists and genetic counselors to be aware of and sensitized to the questions and attitudes that bring parents to a genetic evaluation, as well as the reasons why parents may not follow up with genetic testing for hearing loss when recommended.

An Analysis of the Future Need for Certified Animal Health Technicians and Instructional Program Content.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nevada State Council on Occupational Education, Carson City.

A study examined the future need for certified animal health technicians (CAHT) in Nevada and the skills/knowledge that future CAHTs will need. Questionnaires were mailed to all of Nevada's 306 licensed veterinarians; 100 (32.68%) responded. The estimated numbers of CAHTs needed by the state's veterinarians in 1, 3, and 5 years were 62, 142, and…

Hopes for the Future: Demographic and Personal Resources Associated with Self-Perceived Employability and Actual Employment among Senior Year Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kasler, Jonathan; Zysberg, Leehu; Harel, Nofar

2017-01-01

Undergraduates approaching completion of their studies may embrace the prospect of entry into the world of work as a challenge or conversely, may view it with trepidation. This study explores three major personal resources that may be associated with how young undergraduates view their future employability: perceived hope, grit and emotional…

Prevalence and future prediction of type 2 diabetes mellitus in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: A systematic review of published studies.

PubMed

Meo, Sultan Ayoub

2016-06-01

To highlight the prevalence and future projections of type 2 diabetes mellitus in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The systematic analytic study was conducted in the Department of Physiology, College of Medicine, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, from Dec 2014 to April 2015. Systematic bibliographic search of scientific databases including ISI-web of science, PubMed and Google Scholar was conducted with key words of "diabetes mellitus" "prevalence", "incidence". Total 46 peer reviewed papers were selected and examined. All the experimental and epidemiologic studies reporting the prevalence of diabetes in Saudi Arabia were included. There was no restriction on publication prestige and language of the publication. Finally, we included 21 publications and remaining 25 papers were excluded. The future predicted prevalence of type 2 diabetes was calculated on the results of the published studies by regressing the 33 years (1982-2015) of prevalence rate of diabetes against the time period. The prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Saudi Arabia is 32.8%. However, the predicted prevalence will be 35.37% in 2020; 40.37% in 2025 and 45.36% in the year 2030. The coefficient on time factor indicated that prevalence rate has increased during 1982-2015. Saudi Arabia has a highest prevalence (32.8%) of type 2 diabetes mellitus. We forecast that the incidence of type 2 diabetes will increase from 32.8% in 2015 to 45.36% in 2030. Saudi Arabia should include diabetes preventive measures on a war footing basis in their national health policy to minimize the burden of the disease.

Status of the Future Circular Collider Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benedikt, Michael

2016-03-01

Following the 2013 update of the European Strategy for Particle Physics, the international Future Circular Collider (FCC) Study has been launched by CERN as host institute, to design an energy frontier hadron collider (FCC-hh) in a new 80-100 km tunnel with a centre-of-mass energy of about 100 TeV, an order of magnitude beyond the LHC's, as a long-term goal. The FCC study also includes the design of a 90-350 GeV high-luminosity lepton collider (FCC-ee) installed in the same tunnel, serving as Higgs, top and Z factory, as a potential intermediate step, as well as an electron-proton collider option (FCC-he). The physics cases for such machines will be assessed and concepts for experiments will be developed in time for the next update of the European Strategy for Particle Physics by the end of 2018. The presentation will summarize the status of machine designs and parameters and discuss the essential technical components to be developed in the frame of the FCC study. Key elements are superconducting accelerator-dipole magnets with a field of 16 T for the hadron collider and high-power, high-efficiency RF systems for the lepton collider. In addition the unprecedented beam power presents special challenges for the hadron collider for all aspects of beam handling and machine protection. First conclusions of geological investigations and implementation studies will be presented. The status of the FCC collaboration and the further planning for the study will be outlined.

Possible Futures: Using Frameworks of Knowledge to Help Year 9 Connect Past, Present and Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nuttall, Dan

2013-01-01

How can we help pupils integrate history into coherent "Big Pictures" or mental frameworks? Building on traditions of classroom research and theorising reported in earlier editions of Teaching History, Dan Nuttall reports how his department set out to help Year 9 build a coherent big picture of twentieth-century history that would…

Corpus callosum atrophy as a predictor of age-related cognitive and motor impairment: a 3-year follow-up of the LADIS study cohort.

PubMed

Ryberg, C; Rostrup, E; Paulson, O B; Barkhof, F; Scheltens, P; van Straaten, E C W; van der Flier, W M; Fazekas, F; Schmidt, R; Ferro, J M; Baezner, H; Erkinjuntti, T; Jokinen, H; Wahlund, L-O; Poggesi, A; Pantoni, L; Inzitari, D; Waldemar, G

2011-08-15

The aim of this 3-year follow-up study was to investigate whether corpus callosum (CC) atrophy may predict future motor and cognitive impairment in an elderly population. On baseline MRI from 563 subjects with age-related white matter changes (ARWMC) from the Leukoaraiosis And DISability (LADIS) study, the CC was segmented and subdivided into five anterior-posterior regions (CC1-CC5). Associations between the CC areas and decline in motor performance and cognitive functions over a 3-year period were analyzed. CC atrophy at baseline was significantly associated with impaired cognitive performance (p<0.01 for CC1, p<0.05 for CC5), motor function (p<0.05 for CC2 and CC5), and walking speed (p<0.01 for CC2 and CC5, p<0.05 for CC3 and total CC), and with development of dementia at 3 years (p<0.05 for CC1) after correction for appropriate confounders (ARWMC volume, atrophy, age, gender and handedness). In conclusion, CC atrophy, an indicator of reduced functional connectivity between cortical areas, seems to contribute, independently of ARWMC load, to future cognitive and motor decline in the elderly. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Time counts: future time perspective, goals, and social relationships.

PubMed

Lang, Frieder R; Carstensen, Laura L

2002-03-01

On the basis of postulates derived from socioemotional selectivity theory, the authors explored the extent to which future time perspective (FTP) is related to social motivation, and to the composition and perceived quality of personal networks. Four hundred eighty German participants with ages ranging from 20 to 90 years took part in the study. In 2 card-sort tasks, participants indicated their partner preference and goal priority. Participants also completed questionnaires on personal networks and social satisfaction. Older people, as a group, perceived their future time as more limited than younger people. Individuals who perceived future time as being limited prioritized emotionally meaningful goals (e.g., generativity, emotion regulation), whereas individuals who perceived their futures as open-ended prioritized instrumental or knowledge-related goals. Priority of goal domains was found to be differently associated with the size, composition, and perceived quality of personal networks depending on FTP. Prioritizing emotion-regulatory goals was associated with greater social satisfaction and less perceived strain with others when participants perceived their future as limited. Findings underscore the importance of FTP in the self-regulation of social relationships and the subjective experience associated with them.

Projecting future grassland performance in the Greater Platte River Basin to assess sustainability for potential biofuel feedstock areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Y.; Wylie, B. K.; Phuyal, K.

2012-12-01

In previous studies, we used vegetation condition information from archival records of satellite data (i.e., 10-year time series of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data), site geophysical and biophysical features (e.g., elevation, slope and aspect, and soils), and weather and climate drivers to build ecosystem performance (EP) models to dynamically monitor EP (DMEP) in the Greater Platte River Basin (GPRB). Ecosystem performance is a surrogate approach for measuring ecosystem productivity. We estimated ecosystem site potentials (i.e., long-term ecosystem productivities), weather-based expected EP (EEP), and rangeland conditions based on these EP models. Validation of the EP results using ground observations (e.g., percentage of bare soil, LANDFIRE maps, stocking rate, and crop yield data) demonstrated the reliability of these EP models. We used this DMEP method to identify grasslands that are potentially suitable for cellulosic biofuel feedstock (e.g., switchgrass) development in the GPRB. The objectives of this study are to (1) project the future grassland EP; (2) assess the changes and trends of the future EP; and (3) examine the future sustainability of the identified biofuel feedstock areas in the GPRB. We used the EP models and future climate projections to estimate future (e.g., 2050 and 2099) climate-based projections of grassland performance in the GPRB. The future climate data were derived from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model 3.0 (CCSM3) "SRES A1B" (a "middle" emissions path) obtained from the "Bias Corrected and Downscaled WCRP CMIP3 Climate Projections" archive (http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip3_projections). Results show that, under climate scenario A1B, the potential biofuel feedstock areas in the more mesic Eastern part of the GPRB will remain productive in the future (the spatially averaged EPs for these areas are 3335 kg ha-1 year-1, 3355 kg ha-1 year-1, and 3341 kg ha-1 year

Serbian medical students' fertility awareness and attitudes towards future parenthood.

PubMed

Vujčić, Isidora; Radičević, Tijana; Dubljanin, Eleonora; Maksimović, Nataša; Grujičić, Sandra

2017-08-01

Medical students represent a group particularly at risk of involuntary childlessness due to their highly demanding careers and university curriculum. The aim of this study was to investigate Serbian medical students' attitudes towards future parenthood and their awareness of fertility issues. A cross-sectional study was conducted among fourth year students at the Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Serbia, between 12 and 16 December 2016. Data were collected through an anonymous 56-item validated questionnaire, translated into the Serbian language. The participation rate was 87.1%. More than 95% of students, regardless of gender, wanted to have children in the future; most indicated three as the desired number of children. Both genders equally rated the importance of having children. Women rated significantly higher the likelihood of IVF treatment or child adoption if faced with infertility (both p = .001). All students wanted to have their first child before the age of 35 years. Knowledge about the age-related decline in female fertility was not satisfactory. Women found it more important to have children when they felt sufficiently mature, were in a stable relationship, were financially secure, had completed their studies, were not too old to have children, and had access to childcare, although these prerequisites were rated highly by both genders. Serbian medical students greatly value and have a positive perception of future parenthood. Appropriate education is needed, however, because of their inadequate knowledge of the age-related decline in female fertility.

Prediagnostic serum levels of inflammatory biomarkers are correlated with future development of lung and esophageal cancer

PubMed Central

Keeley, Brieze R; Islami, Farhad; Pourshams, Akram; Poustchi, Hossein; Pak, Jamie S; Brennan, Paul; Khademi, Hooman; Genden, Eric M; Abnet, Christian C; Dawsey, Sanford M; Boffetta, Paolo; Malekzadeh, Reza; Sikora, Andrew G

2014-01-01

This study tests the hypothesis that prediagnostic serum levels of 20 cancer-associated inflammatory biomarkers correlate directly with future development of head and neck, esophageal, and lung cancers in a high-risk prospective cohort. This is a nested case–control pilot study of subjects enrolled in the Golestan Cohort Study, an ongoing epidemiologic project assessing cancer trends in Golestan, Iran. We measured a panel of 20 21cytokines, chemokines, and inflammatory molecules using Luminex technology in serum samples collected 2 or more years before cancer diagnosis in 78 aerodigestive cancer cases and 81 controls. Data was analyzed using Wilcoxon rank sum test, odds ratios, receiver operating characteristic areas of discrimination, and multivariate analysis. Biomarkers were profoundly and globally elevated in future esophageal and lung cancer patients compared to controls. Odds ratios were significant for association between several biomarkers and future development of esophageal cancer, including interleukin-1Rα (IL-1Ra; 35.9), interferon α2 (IFN-a2; 34.0), fibroblast growth factor-2 (FGF-2; 17.4), and granulocyte/macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF; 17.4). The same pattern was observed among future lung cancer cases for G-CSF (27.7), GM-CSF (13.3), and tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-a; 8.6). By contrast, the majority of biomarkers studied showed no significant correlation with future head and neck cancer development. This study provides the first direct evidence that multiple inflammatory biomarkers are coordinately elevated in future lung and esophageal cancer patients 2 or more years before cancer diagnosis. PMID:25040886

Publishing 13C metabolic flux analysis studies: A review and future perspectives

PubMed Central

Crown, Scott B.; Antoniewicz, Maciek R.

2018-01-01

13C-Metabolic flux analysis (13C-MFA) is a powerful model-based analysis technique for determining intracellular metabolic fluxes in living cells. It has become a standard tool in many labs for quantifying cell physiology, e.g. in metabolic engineering, systems biology, biotechnology, and biomedical research. With the increasing number of 13C-MFA studies published each year, it is now ever more important to provide practical guidelines for performing and publishing 13C-MFA studies so that quality is not sacrificed as the number of publications increases. The main purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of good practices in 13C-MFA, which can eventually be used as minimum data standards for publishing 13C-MFA studies. The motivation for this work is two-fold: (1) currently, there is no general consensus among researchers and journal editors as to what minimum data standards should be required for publishing 13C-MFA studies; as a result, there are great discrepancies in terms of quality and consistency; and (2) there is a growing number of studies that cannot be reproduced or verified independently due to incomplete information provided in these publications. This creates confusion, e.g. when trying to reconcile conflicting results, and hinders progress in the field. Here, we review current status in the 13C-MFA field and highlight some of the shortcomings with regards to 13C-MFA publications. We then propose a checklist that encompasses good practices in 13C-MFA. We hope that these guidelines will be a valuable resource for the community and allow 13C-flux studies to be more easily reproduced and accessed by others in the future. PMID:24025367

Exploring the content and quality of episodic future simulations in semantic dementia.

PubMed

Irish, Muireann; Addis, Donna Rose; Hodges, John R; Piguet, Olivier

2012-12-01

Semantic dementia (SD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder characterised by the amodal loss of semantic knowledge in the context of relatively preserved recent episodic memory. Recent studies have demonstrated that despite relatively intact episodic memory the capacity for future simulation in SD is profoundly impaired, resulting in an asymmetric profile where past retrieval is significantly better than future simulation (referred to as a past>future effect). Here, we sought to identify the origins of this asymmetric profile by conducting a fine-grained analysis of the contextual details provided during past retrieval and future simulation in SD. Participants with SD (n=14), Alzheimer's disease (n=11), and healthy controls (n=14) had previously completed an experimental past-future interview in which they generated three past events from the previous year, and three future events in the next year, and provided subjective qualitative ratings of vividness, emotional valence, emotional intensity, task difficulty, and personal significance for each event described. Our results confirmed the striking impairment for future simulation in SD, despite a relative preservation of past episodic retrieval. Examination of the contextual details provided for past memories and future simulations revealed significant impairments irrespective of contextual detail type for future simulations in SD, and demonstrated that the future thinking deficit in this cohort was driven by a marked decline in the provision of internal (episodic) event details. In contrast with this past>future effect for internal event details, SD patients displayed a future>past effect for external (non-episodic) event details. Analyses of the qualitative ratings provided for past and future events indicated that SD patients' phenomenological experience did not differ between temporal conditions. Our findings underscore the fact that successful extraction of episodic elements from the past is not

California air transportation study: A transportation system for the California Corridor of the year 2010

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1989-01-01

To define and solve the problems of transportation in the California Corrider in the year 2010, the 1989 California Polytechnic State University Aeronautical Engineering Senior Design class determined future corridor transportation needs and developed a system to meet the requirements. A market study, which included interpreting travel demand and gauging the future of regional and national air travel in and out of the corridor, allowed the goals of the project to be accurately refined. Comprehensive trade-off studies of several proposed transporation systems were conducted to determine which components would form the final proposed system. Preliminary design and further analysis were performed for each resulting component. The proposed system consists of three vehicles and a special hub or mode mixer, the Corridor Access Port (CAP). The vehicles are: (1) an electric powered aircraft to serve secondary airports and the CAP; (2) a high speed magnetic levitation train running through the CAP and the high population density areas of the corridor; and (3) a vertical takeoff and landing tilt rotor aircraft to serve both intercity and intrametropolitan travelers from the CAP and city vertiports. The CAP is a combination and an extension of the hub, mode mixer, and Wayport concepts. The CAP is an integrated part of the system which meets the travel demands in the corridor, and interfaces with interstate and international travel.

How Adolescents Construct Their Future: The Effect of Loneliness on Future Orientation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Seginer, Rachel; Lilach, Efrat

2004-01-01

This study examined the effect of loneliness, gender, and two dimensions of prospective life domains on adolescent future orientation. Future orientation was studied in four prospective domains: social relations, marriage and family, higher education and work and career. These domains are described in terms of two dimensions: theme (relational vs.…

Twenty-Year Countdown Attitudes of Teachers About the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sherman, Charles E.; Morris, Jeanne B.

Attitudinal data were collected on 606 teachers in the fall of 1978 and 426 teachers in the spring of 1979 concerning the prospects of solving, by the year 2000, problems of energy, pollution, hunger, threat of nuclear war, and teacher potential for influencing changes for the better in world conditions. The attitudes of the two groups were…

Projected Temperature-Related Years of Life Lost From Stroke Due To Global Warming in a Temperate Climate City, Asia: Disease Burden Caused by Future Climate Change.

PubMed

Li, Guoxing; Guo, Qun; Liu, Yang; Li, Yixue; Pan, Xiaochuan

2018-04-01

Global warming has attracted worldwide attention. Numerous studies have indicated that stroke is associated with temperature; however, few studies are available on the projections of the burden of stroke attributable to future climate change. We aimed to investigate the future trends of stroke years of life lost (YLL) associated with global warming. We collected death records to examine YLL in Tianjin, China, from 2006 to 2011. We fitted a standard time-series Poisson regression model after controlling for trends, day of the week, relative humidity, and air pollution. We estimated temperature-YLL associations with a distributed lag nonlinear model. These models were then applied to the local climate projections to estimate temperature-related YLL in the 2050s and 2070s. We projected temperature-related YLL from stroke in Tianjin under 19 global-scale climate models and 3 different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The results showed a slight decrease in YLL with percent decreases of 0.85%, 0.97%, and 1.02% in the 2050s and 0.94%, 1.02%, and 0.91% in the 2070s for the 3 scenarios, respectively. The increases in heat-related annual YLL and the decreases in cold-related YLL under the high emission scenario were the strongest. The monthly analysis showed that the most significant increase occurred in the summer months, particularly in August, with percent changes >150% in the 2050s and up to 300% in the 2070s. Future changes in climate are likely to lead to an increase in heat-related YLL, and this increase will not be offset by adaptation under both medium emission and high emission scenarios. Health protections from hot weather will become increasingly necessary, and measures to reduce cold effects will also remain important. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Summary of Medipix Technology's 3-Years in Space and Plans for Future Developments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinsky, Lawrence

2016-07-01

NASA has evaluated 7 Timepix-based radiation imaging detectors from the CERN-based Medipix2 collaboration on the International Space Station (ISS), collecting more than 3-years of data, as well on the December, 2014 EFT-1 mission testing the new Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle. These data along with data collected at ground-based accelerator facilities including the NASA Space Radiation Lab (NSRL) at Brookhaven in the US, as well as at the HIMAC facility at the National Institute for Radiological Sciences in Japan, have allowed the development of software analysis techniques sufficient to provide a stand-alone accurate assessment of the space radiation environment for dosimetric purposes. Recent comparisons of the performance of the Timepix with both n-on-p and p-on-n Si sensors will be presented. The further evolution of the Timepix technology by the Medipix3 collaboration in the form of the Timepix3 chip, which employs a continuous data-driven readout scheme, is being evaluated for possible use in future space research applications. Initial performance evaluations at accelerators will be reported. The Medipix2 Collaboration is also in the process of designing an updated version of the Timepix chip, called the Timepix2, which will continue the frame-based readout scheme of the current Timepix chip, but add simultaneous charge encoding using the Time-Over-Threshold (TOT) and first-hit Time-of-Arrival (TOA) encoding. Current plans are to replace the Timepix by the Timepix2 with minimal reconfiguration of the supporting electronics. Longer-term plans include participation in the currently forming Medipix4 collaboration. A summary of these prospects will also be included.

Point and 5-year period prevalence of neuropsychiatric symptoms in dementia: the Cache County Study.

PubMed

Steinberg, Martin; Shao, Huibo; Zandi, Peter; Lyketsos, Constantine G; Welsh-Bohmer, Kathleen A; Norton, Maria C; Breitner, John C S; Steffens, David C; Tschanz, Joann T

2008-02-01

Neuropsychiatric symptoms are nearly universal in dementia, yet little is known about their longitudinal course in the community. To estimate point and 5-year period prevalence of neuropsychiatric symptoms in an incident sample of 408 dementia participants from the Cache County Study. The Neuropsychiatric Inventory assessed symptoms at baseline and at 1.5 years, 3.0 years, 4.1 years, and 5.3 years. Point prevalence, period prevalence and mean symptom severity at each time point were estimated. Point prevalence for delusions was 18% at baseline and 34-38% during the last three visits; hallucinations, 10% at baseline and 19-24% subsequently; agitation/aggression fluctuated between 13% and 24%; depression 29% at baseline and 41-47% subsequently; apathy increased from 20% at baseline to 51% at 5.3 years; elation never rose above 1%; anxiety 14% at baseline and 24-32% subsequently; disinhibition fluctuated between 2% and 15%; irritability between 17% and 27%; aberrant motor behavior gradually increased from 7% at baseline to 29% at 5.3 years. Point prevalence for any symptom was 56% at baseline and 76-87% subsequently. Five-year period prevalence was greatest for depression (77%), apathy (71%), and anxiety (62%); lowest for elation (6%), and disinhibition (31%). Ninety-seven percent experienced at least one symptom. Symptom severity was consistently highest for apathy. Participants were most likely to develop depression, apathy, or anxiety, and least likely to develop elation or disinhibition. Give converging evidence that syndromal definitions may more accurately capture neuropsychiatric co-morbidity in dementia, future efforts to validate such syndromes are warranted. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

California's Drought - Stress test for the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lund, J. R.

2014-12-01

The current California drought is in its third dry years, with this year being the third driest years in a 106-year record. This drought occurs at a time when urban, agricultural, and environmental water demands have never been greater. This drought has revealed the importance of more quantitative evaluation and methods for water assessment and management. All areas of water and environmental management are likely to become increasingly stressed, and have essentially drought-like conditions, in the future, as California's urban, agricultural, and environmental demands continue to expand and as the climate changes. In the historical past, droughts have pre-viewed stresses developing in the future and helped focus policy-makers, the public, and stakeholders on preparing for these developing future conditions. Multi-decade water management strategies are often galvinized by drought. Irrigation was galvanized by California droughts in the 1800s, reservoir systems by the 1928-32 drought, urban water conservation by the 1976-77 drought, and water markets by the 1988-92 drought. With each drought, demands for tighter accounting, rights, and management have increased. This talk reviews the prospects and challenges for increased development and use of water data and systems analysis in the service of human and environmental water demands in California's highly decentralized water management system, and the prospects if these challenges are not more successfully addressed.

Resources for the Future. Annual Report for the Year Ending September 30, 1985.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Resources for the Future, Inc., Washington, DC.

Resources for the Future, Inc. (RFF) is a nonprofit, tax exempt corporation headquartered in Washington, D.C. RFF's purpose is to advance research and education in the development, conservation, and use of natural resources, including improvement of the quality of the environment. Most of its programs are carried out by resident staff, but a few…

Resources for the Future. Annual Report for the Year Ending September 30, 1982.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Resources for the Future, Inc., Washington, DC.

Resources for the Future, Inc. (RFF) is a nonprofit, tax-exempt corporation headquartered in Washington, D.C. RFF's purpose is to advance research and education in the development, conservation, and use of natural resources, including improvement of the quality of the environment. Most of its programs are carried out by resident staff, but a few…

Adaptation to floods in future climate: a practical approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata; Radon, Radoslaw; Hisdal, Hege

2016-04-01

In this study some aspects of the application of the 1D hydraulic model are discussed with a focus on its suitability for flood adaptation under future climate conditions. The Biała Tarnowska catchment is used as a case study. A 1D hydraulic model is developed for the evaluation of inundation extent and risk maps in future climatic conditions. We analyse the following flood indices: (i) extent of inundation area; (ii) depth of water on flooded land; (iii) the flood wave duration; (iv) the volume of a flood wave over the threshold value. In this study we derive a model cross-section geometry following the results of primary research based on a 500-year flood inundation extent. We compare two methods of localisation of cross-sections from the point of view of their suitability to the derivation of the most precise inundation outlines. The aim is to specify embankment heights along the river channel that would protect the river valley in the most vulnerable locations under future climatic conditions. We present an experimental design for scenario analysis studies and uncertainty reduction options for future climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the project CHIHE (Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes), carried out in the Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences, funded by Norway Grants (contract No. Pol-Nor/196243/80/2013). The hydro-meteorological observations were provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Poland.

Two Fineless Years, A History, Analysis, and Evaluation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Meyer, Robert S.

The purpose of this study is to summarize and evaluate the Alameda County, California library system's two years of operation under a no-fines policy and a centralized overdues facility, leading to recommendations for future action. The objectives of the study are to: (1) present an historical summary of the changes in the library policies and…

International Heliophysical Year

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davila, Joseph, M.

2005-01-01

The International Heliophysical Year (IHY), an international program of scientific collaboration to understand the external drivers of planetary environments, will be conducted in 2007. This will be a major international event of great interest to the member States. The M Y will involve the deployment of new instrumentation, new observations from the ground and in space, and an education component. The IHY 2007 will coincide with the fiftieth anniversary of the International Geophysical Year (IGY) in 1957. The IGY was organized to study global phenomena of the Earth and Geospace involving about 60,000 scientists from 66 nations, working at thousands of stations, around the world to obtain simultaneous, global observations from the ground and space. Building on results obtained during IGY 1957, the IHY will expand to the study of universal processes in the solar system that affect the interplanetary and terrestrial environments. The study of energetic events in the solar system will pave the way for safe human space travel to the Moon and planets in the future, and it will serve to inspire the next generation of space physicists.

The Future of Organized Camping.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Henderson, Karla A.; And Others

A research study on the future of organized camping investigated future factors which may affect leadership of camping programs in Wisconsin and throughout the country. Objectives were to: identify 50 experts on organized camping who would participate in a 3-round Delphi study on the future of camping; generate consensus among the experts…

2013 Schroth faces of the future symposium to highlight early career professionals in Mycology

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The 2013 Schroth Faces of the Future symposium was created to recognize early career professionals (those within 10 years of graduation) who represent the future in their field via innovative research. For this year, future faces in mycology research were recognized. Drs. Jason Slot, Erica Goss, Jam...

50 Years of Fermilab

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lincoln, Don

America’s leading particle physics laboratory is turning 50 years old this year. Fermilab’s Dr. Don Lincoln remembers the laboratory’s first half century and looks forward to the fascinating research topics that Fermilab’s scientific staff are looking at as they leap forward into the future.

Cardiorespiratory Fitness Cutoff Points for Early Detection of Present and Future Cardiovascular Risk in Children: A 2-Year Follow-up Study.

PubMed

Castro-Piñero, José; Perez-Bey, Alejandro; Segura-Jiménez, Víctor; Aparicio, Virginia A; Gómez-Martínez, Sonia; Izquierdo-Gomez, Rocio; Marcos, Ascensión; Ruiz, Jonatan R

2017-12-01

To examine the association between cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) at baseline and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in 6- to 10-year-olds (cross-sectional) and 2 years later (8- to 12-year-olds [longitudinal]) and whether changes with age in CRF are associated with CVD risk in children aged 8 to 12 years. Spanish primary schoolchildren (n=236) aged 6 to 10 years participated at baseline. Of the 23 participating primary schools, 22% (n=5) were private schools and 78% (n=18) were public schools. The dropout rate at 2-year follow-up was 9.7% (n=23). The 20-m shuttle run test was used to estimate CRF. The CVD risk score was computed as the mean of 5 CVD risk factor standardized scores: sum of 2 skinfolds, systolic blood pressure, insulin/glucose, triglycerides, and total cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. At baseline, CRF was inversely associated with single CVD risk factors (all P<.05) and CVD risk score at baseline and follow-up (P<.001). Cardiorespiratory fitness cutoff points of 39.0 mL/kg per minute or greater in boys and 37.5 mL/kg per minute or greater in girls are discriminative to identify CVD risk in childhood (area under the curve, >0.85; P<.001) and to predict CVD risk 2 years later (P=.004). Persistent low CRF or the decline of CRF from 6-10 to 8-12 years of age is associated with increased CVD risk at age 8 to 12 years (P<.001). During childhood, CRF is a strong predictor of CVD risk and should be monitored to identify children with potential CVD risk. Copyright © 2017 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

From Cloning Neural Development Genes to Functional Studies in Mice, 30 Years of Advancements.

PubMed

Joyner, Alexandra L

2016-01-01

The invention of new mouse molecular genetics techniques, initiated in the 1980s, has repeatedly expanded our ability to tackle exciting developmental biology problems. The brain is the most complex organ, and as such the more sophisticated the molecular genetics technique, the more impact they have on uncovering new insights into how our brain functions. I provide a general time line for the introduction of new techniques over the past 30 years and give examples of new discoveries in the neural development field that emanated from them. I include a look to what the future holds and argue that we are at the dawn of a very exciting age for young scientists interested in studying how the nervous system is constructed and functions with such precision. © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting Future Suicide Attempts Among Adolescent and Emerging Adult Psychiatric Emergency Patients