Policy recommendations and cost implications for a more sustainable framework for European human biomonitoring surveys.

PubMed

Joas, Anke; Knudsen, Lisbeth E; Kolossa-Gehring, Marike; Sepai, Ovnair; Casteleyn, Ludwine; Schoeters, Greet; Angerer, Jürgen; Castaño, Argelia; Aerts, Dominique; Biot, Pierre; Horvat, Milena; Bloemen, Louis; Reis, M Fátima; Lupsa, Ioana-Rodica; Katsonouri, Andromachi; Cerna, Milena; Berglund, Marika; Crettaz, Pierre; Rudnai, Peter; Halzlova, Katarina; Mulcahy, Maurice; Gutleb, Arno C; Fischer, Marc E; Becher, Georg; Fréry, Nadine; Jensen, Genon; Van Vliet, Lisette; Koch, Holger M; Den Hond, Elly; Fiddicke, Ulrike; Esteban, Marta; Exley, Karen; Schwedler, Gerda; Seiwert, Margarete; Ligocka, Danuta; Hohenblum, Philipp; Kyrtopoulos, Soterios; Botsivali, Maria; DeFelip, Elena; Guillou, Claude; Reniero, Fabiano; Grazuleviciene, Regina; Veidebaum, Toomas; Mørck, Thit A; Nielsen, Jeanette K S; Jensen, Janne F; Rivas, Teresa C; Sanchez, Jinny; Koppen, Gudrun; Smolders, Roel; Kozepesy, Szilvia; Hadjipanayis, Adamos; Krskova, Andrea; Mannion, Rory; Jakubowski, Marek; Fucic, J Aleksandra; Pereira-Miguel, Jose; Gurzau, Anca E; Jajcaj, Michal; Mazej, Darja; Tratnik, Janja Snoj; Lehmann, Andrea; Larsson, Kristin; Dumez, Birgit; Joas, Reinhard

2015-08-01

The potential of Human Biomonitoring (HBM) in exposure characterisation and risk assessment is well established in the scientific HBM community and regulatory arena by many publications. The European Environment and Health Strategy as well as the Environment and Health Action Plan 2004-2010 of the European Commission recognised the value of HBM and the relevance and importance of coordination of HBM programmes in Europe. Based on existing and planned HBM projects and programmes of work and capabilities in Europe the Seventh Framework Programme (FP 7) funded COPHES (COnsortium to Perform Human Biomonitoring on a European Scale) to advance and improve comparability of HBM data across Europe. The pilot study protocol was tested in 17 European countries in the DEMOCOPHES feasibility study (DEMOnstration of a study to COordinate and Perform Human biomonitoring on a European Scale) cofunded (50%) under the LIFE+ programme of the European Commission. The potential of HBM in supporting and evaluating policy making (including e.g. REACH) and in awareness raising on environmental health, should significantly advance the process towards a fully operational, continuous, sustainable and scientifically based EU HBM programme. From a number of stakeholder activities during the past 10 years and the national engagement, a framework for sustainable HBM structure in Europe is recommended involving national institutions within environment, health and food as well as European institutions such as ECHA, EEA, and EFSA. An economic frame with shared cost implications for national and European institutions is suggested benefitting from the capacity building set up by COPHES/DEMOCOPHES. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A review of human biomonitoring in selected Southeast Asian countries.

PubMed

Barnett-Itzhaki, Zohar; Esteban López, Marta; Puttaswamy, Naveen; Berman, Tamar

2018-07-01

Rapid development and industrialization in Southeast (SE) Asia has led to environmental pollution, potentially exposing the general population to environmental contaminants. Human biomonitoring (HBM), measurement of chemical and/or their metabolites in human tissues and fluids, is an important tool for assessing cumulative exposure to complex mixtures of chemicals and for monitoring chemical exposures in the general population. While there are national HBM programs in several developed countries, there are no such national programs in most of the SE Asian countries. However, in recent years there has been progress in the field of HBM in many of the SE Asian countries. In this review, we present recent HBM studies in five selected SE Asian countries: Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar and Thailand. While there is extensive HBM research in several SE Asian countries, such as Thailand, in other countries HBM studies are limited and focus on traditional environmental pollutants (such as lead, arsenic and mercury). Further development of this field in SE Asia would be benefited by establishment of laboratory capacity, improving quality control and assurance, collaboration with international experts and consortiums, and sharing of protocols and training both for pre-analytical and analytical phases. This review highlights the impressive progress in HBM research in selected SE Asian countries and provides recommendations for development of this field. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

In vivo activity assessment of a "honey-bee pollen mix" formulation.

PubMed

Küpeli Akkol, Esra; Orhan, Didem Deliorman; Gürbüz, Ilhan; Yesilada, Erdem

2010-03-01

Honey-bee pollen mix (HBM) formulation is claimed to be effective for the treatment of asthma, bronchitis, cancers, peptic ulcers, colitis, various types of infections including hepatitis B, and rheumatism by the herb dealers in northeast Turkey. In the present study, in vivo antinociceptive, anti-inflammatory, gastroprotective and antioxidant effects of pure honey and HBM formulation were evaluated comparatively. HBM did not show any significant gastroprotective activity in a single administration at 250 mg/kg dose, whereas a weak activity was observed after three days of successive administration at 500 mg/kg dose. On the other hand, HBM displayed significant antinociceptive (p <0.01) and anti-inflammatory (p <0.01) activities at 500 mg/kg dose orally without inducing any apparent acute toxicity or gastric damage. HBM was also shown to possess potent antilipidperoxidant activity (p <0.01) at 500 mg/kg dose against acetaminophen-induced liver necrosis model in mice. On the other hand, pure honey did not exert any remarkable antinociceptive, anti-inflammatory and gastroprotective activity, but a potent antilipidperoxidant activity (p <0.01) was determined. Results have clearly proved that mixing pure honey with bee pollen significantly increased the healing potential of honey and provided additional support for its traditional use. Total phenolic and flavonoid contents of HBM were found to be 145 and 59.3 mg/100 g of honey, which were estimated as gallic acid and quercetin equivalents, respectively.

Mortality attributable to diabetes: estimates for the year 2010.

PubMed

Roglic, Gojka; Unwin, Nigel

2010-01-01

Country and global health statistics underestimate the number of excess deaths due to diabetes. The aim of the study was to provide a more accurate estimate of the number of deaths attributable to diabetes for the year 2010. A computerized disease model was used to obtain the estimates. The baseline input data included the population structure, estimates of diabetes prevalence, estimates of underlying mortality and estimates of the relative risk of death for people with diabetes compared to people without diabetes. The total number of excess deaths attributable to diabetes worldwide was estimated to be 3.96 million in the age group 20-79 years, 6.8% of global (all ages) mortality. Diabetes accounted for 6% of deaths in adults in the African Region, to 15.7% in the North American Region. Beyond 49 years of age diabetes constituted a higher proportion of deaths in females than in males in all regions, reaching over 25% in some regions and age groups. Thus, diabetes is a considerable cause of premature mortality, a situation that is likely to worsen, particularly in low and middle income countries as diabetes prevalence increases. Investments in primary and secondary prevention are urgently required to reduce this burden. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Testing five social-cognitive models to explain predictors of personal oral health behaviours and intention to improve them.

PubMed

Dumitrescu, Alexandrina L; Dogaru, Beatrice C; Duta, Carmen; Manolescu, Bogdan N

2014-01-01

To test the ability of several social-cognitive models to explain current behaviour and to predict intentions to engage in three different health behaviours (toothbrushing, flossing and mouthrinsing). Constructs from the health belief model (HBM), theory of reasoned action (TRA), theory of planned behaviour (TPB) and the motivational process of the health action process approach (HAPA) were measured simultaneously in an undergraduate student sample of 172 first-year medical students. Regarding toothbrushing, the TRA, TPB, HBM (without the inclusion of self-efficacy SE), HBM+SE and HAPA predictor models explained 7.4%, 22.7%, 10%, 10.2% and 10.1%, respectively, of the variance in behaviour and 7.5%, 25.6%, 12.1%, 17.5% and 17.2%, respectively, in intention. Regarding dental flossing, the TRA, TPB, HBM, HBM+SE and HAPA predictor models explained 39%, 50.6, 24.1%, 25.4% and 27.7%, respectively, of the variance in behaviour and 39.4%, 52.7%, 33.7%, 35.9% and 43.2%, respectively, in intention. Regarding mouthrinsing, the TRA, TPB, HBM, HBM+SE and HAPA predictor models explained 43.9%, 45.1%, 20%, 29% and 36%, respectively, of the variance in behaviour and 58%, 59.3%, 49.2%, 59.8% and 66.2%, respectively, in intention. The individual significant predictors for current behaviour were attitudes, barriers and outcome expectancy. Our findings revealed that the theory of planned behaviours and the health action process approach were the best predictor of intentions to engage in both behaviours.

Familial congenital cyanosis caused by Hb-MYantai(α-76 GAC → TAC, Asp → Tyr)

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Methemoglobin (Hb-M) is a rare hemoglobinopathy in China. We hereby report on a family living in Yantai, East China, with congenital cyanosis due to Hb-M mutation. The proband, a 65-year-old female, presented 63% oxygen saturation. Both Hb-M concentration and arterial oxygen saturation remained unchanged, even following intravenous treatment with methylene blue. There was also no change in blood-color (chocolate-brown) after adding 0.1% KCN. A fast-moving band (Hb-X) in hemolysates was found by cellulose acetate electrophoresis, the Hb-X/Hb-A ratio exceeding 10%. GT transition at 131nt of exon 2, although present in one of the α2 -globin alleles, was not found in α1 -globin alleles as a whole. This mutation leads to the aspartic acid to tyrosine substitution (Asp76Tyr). In this family, the novel mutation in the α2 -globin gene resulted in a rare form of congenital cyanosis due to Hb-M. This hemoglobin was named Hb-M Yantai . PMID:21637412

Societal and ethical issues in human biomonitoring--a view from science studies.

PubMed

Bauer, Susanne

2008-06-05

Human biomonitoring (HBM) has rapidly gained importance. In some epidemiological studies, the measurement and use of biomarkers of exposure, susceptibility and disease have replaced traditional environmental indicators. While in HBM, ethical issues have mostly been addressed in terms of informed consent and confidentiality, this paper maps out a larger array of societal issues from an epistemological perspective, i.e. bringing into focus the conditions of how and what is known in environmental health science. In order to analyse the effects of HBM and the shift towards biomarker research in the assessment of environmental pollution in a broader societal context, selected analytical frameworks of science studies are introduced. To develop the epistemological perspective, concepts from "biomedical platform sociology" and the notion of "epistemic cultures" and "thought styles" are applied to the research infrastructures of HBM. Further, concepts of "biocitizenship" and "civic epistemologies" are drawn upon as analytical tools to discuss the visions and promises of HBM as well as related ethical problematisations. In human biomonitoring, two different epistemological cultures meet; these are environmental science with for instance pollution surveys and toxicological assessments on the one hand, and analytical epidemiology investigating the association between exposure and disease in probabilistic risk estimation on the other hand. The surveillance of exposure and dose via biomarkers as envisioned in HBM is shifting the site of exposure monitoring to the human body. Establishing an HBM platform faces not only the need to consider individual decision autonomy as an ethics issue, but also larger epistemological and societal questions, such as the mode of evidence demanded in science, policy and regulation. The shift of exposure monitoring towards the biosurveillance of human populations involves fundamental changes in the ways environment, health and disease are

Societal and ethical issues in human biomonitoring – a view from science studies

PubMed Central

Bauer, Susanne

2008-01-01

Background Human biomonitoring (HBM) has rapidly gained importance. In some epidemiological studies, the measurement and use of biomarkers of exposure, susceptibility and disease have replaced traditional environmental indicators. While in HBM, ethical issues have mostly been addressed in terms of informed consent and confidentiality, this paper maps out a larger array of societal issues from an epistemological perspective, i.e. bringing into focus the conditions of how and what is known in environmental health science. Methods In order to analyse the effects of HBM and the shift towards biomarker research in the assessment of environmental pollution in a broader societal context, selected analytical frameworks of science studies are introduced. To develop the epistemological perspective, concepts from "biomedical platform sociology" and the notion of "epistemic cultures" and "thought styles" are applied to the research infrastructures of HBM. Further, concepts of "biocitizenship" and "civic epistemologies" are drawn upon as analytical tools to discuss the visions and promises of HBM as well as related ethical problematisations. Results In human biomonitoring, two different epistemological cultures meet; these are environmental science with for instance pollution surveys and toxicological assessments on the one hand, and analytical epidemiology investigating the association between exposure and disease in probabilistic risk estimation on the other hand. The surveillance of exposure and dose via biomarkers as envisioned in HBM is shifting the site of exposure monitoring to the human body. Establishing an HBM platform faces not only the need to consider individual decision autonomy as an ethics issue, but also larger epistemological and societal questions, such as the mode of evidence demanded in science, policy and regulation. Conclusion The shift of exposure monitoring towards the biosurveillance of human populations involves fundamental changes in the ways

Model Year 2013 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

2012-12-01

The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles.

Model Year 2012 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

2011-11-01

The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles.

Model Year 2011 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

2010-11-01

The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles.

Model Year 2017 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles.

Model Year 2018 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles.

Technique for estimating depth of 100-year floods in Tennessee

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gamble, Charles R.; Lewis, James G.

1977-01-01

Preface: A method is presented for estimating the depth of the loo-year flood in four hydrologic areas in Tennessee. Depths at 151 gaging stations on streams that were not significantly affected by man made changes were related to basin characteristics by multiple regression techniques. Equations derived from the analysis can be used to estimate the depth of the loo-year flood if the size of the drainage basin is known.

Estimation of methylmercury intake doses in the South Korea population using a PBPK model

EPA Science Inventory

Recently, South Korea has measured total mercury (Hg) in blood as part of the Korean National Environmental Health Survey (koNEHS) in 6311 subjects representing Korean general population. About 25% of the biomarker measurements were above the Germany HBM1 of 5 µg Hg/L; and about...

Model Year 2014 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

2013-12-01

The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been dividedmore » into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.« less

Model Year 2015 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

2014-12-01

The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been dividedmore » into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.« less

Model Year 2016 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been dividedmore » into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.« less

Human biomonitoring in Israel: Recent results and lessons learned.

PubMed

Berman, Tamar; Goldsmith, Rebecca; Levine, Hagai; Grotto, Itamar

2017-03-01

The use of human biomonitoring (HBM) as a tool for environmental health policy and research is developing rapidly in Israel. Despite challenges in securing political and financial support for HBM, the Ministry of Health has initiated national HBM studies and has utilized HBM data in environmental health policy decision making. Currently, the Ministry of Health is collecting urine samples from children and adults in the framework of the National Health and Nutrition Study (MABAT), with the goal of ongoing surveillance of population exposure to pesticides and environmental tobacco smoke, and of combining HBM data with data on diet and health behavior. In academic research studies in Israel, biomarkers are used increasingly in environmental epidemiology, including in three active birth cohort studies on adverse health effects of phthalates, brominated flame retardants, and organophosphate pesticides. Future Ministry of Health goals include establishing HBM analytical capabilities, developing a long term national HBM plan for Israel and participating in the proposed HBM4EU project in order to improve data harmonization. One of the lessons learned in Israel is that even in the absence of a formal HBM program, it is possible to collect meaningful HBM data and use it in an ad hoc fashion to support environmental health policy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Using Survival Analysis to Improve Estimates of Life Year Gains in Policy Evaluations.

PubMed

Meacock, Rachel; Sutton, Matt; Kristensen, Søren Rud; Harrison, Mark

2017-05-01

Policy evaluations taking a lifetime horizon have converted estimated changes in short-term mortality to expected life year gains using general population life expectancy. However, the life expectancy of the affected patients may differ from the general population. In trials, survival models are commonly used to extrapolate life year gains. The objective was to demonstrate the feasibility and materiality of using parametric survival models to extrapolate future survival in health care policy evaluations. We used our previous cost-effectiveness analysis of a pay-for-performance program as a motivating example. We first used the cohort of patients admitted prior to the program to compare 3 methods for estimating remaining life expectancy. We then used a difference-in-differences framework to estimate the life year gains associated with the program using general population life expectancy and survival models. Patient-level data from Hospital Episode Statistics was utilized for patients admitted to hospitals in England for pneumonia between 1 April 2007 and 31 March 2008 and between 1 April 2009 and 31 March 2010, and linked to death records for the period from 1 April 2007 to 31 March 2011. In our cohort of patients, using parametric survival models rather than general population life expectancy figures reduced the estimated mean life years remaining by 30% (9.19 v. 13.15 years, respectively). However, the estimated mean life year gains associated with the program are larger using survival models (0.380 years) compared to using general population life expectancy (0.154 years). Using general population life expectancy to estimate the impact of health care policies can overestimate life expectancy but underestimate the impact of policies on life year gains. Using a longer follow-up period improved the accuracy of estimated survival and program impact considerably.

Uptake of a new meningitis vaccination programme amongst first-year undergraduate students in the United Kingdom: A cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Blagden, Sarah; Seddon, Daniel; Hungerford, Daniel; Stanistreet, Debbi

2017-01-01

In 2015 meningococcal group W was declared endemic in the UK, with the meningococcal ACWY vaccination (MenACWY) subsequently introduced amongst adolescents and first-year university students. This study aimed to determine MenACWY uptake amongst students and to evaluate how this was influenced by demographics and via the Health Belief Model (HBM). This was a cross-sectional study conducted at a British university amongst first-year undergraduate students aged 18-25 years. Data collection was via an electronic questionnaire encompassing demographics, the HBM and vaccination status. Univariable analysis of the associations between demographics, health beliefs and vaccination was performed, followed by multiple logistic regression. 401 participants were included in analysis. Vaccine uptake was 68.1%. Variables independently associated with vaccination upon multiple regression were age, gap-year, perceived effectiveness of the vaccine and knowledge about risk of meningitis. Compared to 18 year-olds, the odds of vaccination were reduced for 19 year-olds (aOR = 0.087, 95% CI = 0.010-0.729), 20 year-olds (aOR = 0.019, 95% CI = 0.002-0.161) and 21-25 year-olds (aOR = 0.003, 95% CI = <0.001-0.027). In contrast, taking a gap year (aOR = 2.939, 95% CI = 1.329-6.501), higher perceived vaccine effectiveness (aOR = 3.555, 95% CI = 1.787-7.073) and knowledge about meningitis risk (aOR = 2.481, 95% CI = 1.165-5.287) were independently associated with increased uptake. MenACWY uptake amongst students in this study and in other sources is above the national coverage for all adolescents (35.3%), indicating that this vaccination programme may be increasing health inequalities. Older students are less likely to become vaccinated due to differing vaccination policy in this age-group. In future, strategies that focus on specific student cohorts and that highlight vaccine effectiveness and the risk of meningitis should be considered. National evaluation of this vaccination programme is

Uptake of a new meningitis vaccination programme amongst first-year undergraduate students in the United Kingdom: A cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

Seddon, Daniel; Hungerford, Daniel; Stanistreet, Debbi

2017-01-01

Background In 2015 meningococcal group W was declared endemic in the UK, with the meningococcal ACWY vaccination (MenACWY) subsequently introduced amongst adolescents and first-year university students. This study aimed to determine MenACWY uptake amongst students and to evaluate how this was influenced by demographics and via the Health Belief Model (HBM). Methods This was a cross-sectional study conducted at a British university amongst first-year undergraduate students aged 18–25 years. Data collection was via an electronic questionnaire encompassing demographics, the HBM and vaccination status. Univariable analysis of the associations between demographics, health beliefs and vaccination was performed, followed by multiple logistic regression. Results 401 participants were included in analysis. Vaccine uptake was 68.1%. Variables independently associated with vaccination upon multiple regression were age, gap-year, perceived effectiveness of the vaccine and knowledge about risk of meningitis. Compared to 18 year-olds, the odds of vaccination were reduced for 19 year-olds (aOR = 0.087, 95% CI = 0.010–0.729), 20 year-olds (aOR = 0.019, 95% CI = 0.002–0.161) and 21–25 year-olds (aOR = 0.003, 95% CI = <0.001–0.027). In contrast, taking a gap year (aOR = 2.939, 95% CI = 1.329–6.501), higher perceived vaccine effectiveness (aOR = 3.555, 95% CI = 1.787–7.073) and knowledge about meningitis risk (aOR = 2.481, 95% CI = 1.165–5.287) were independently associated with increased uptake. Conclusions MenACWY uptake amongst students in this study and in other sources is above the national coverage for all adolescents (35.3%), indicating that this vaccination programme may be increasing health inequalities. Older students are less likely to become vaccinated due to differing vaccination policy in this age-group. In future, strategies that focus on specific student cohorts and that highlight vaccine effectiveness and the risk of meningitis should be considered

Efficacy of topical application of human breast milk on atopic eczema healing among infants: a randomized clinical trial.

PubMed

Kasrae, Hengameh; Amiri Farahani, Leila; Yousefi, Parsa

2015-08-01

Infant atopic eczema is an inflammatory lesion usually involving the epidermis of the skin. About 50% of infants are affected by this lesion in the first years of their lives. Studies show human breast milk (HBM) as a preventive measure and effective treatment of some sores and infections. This article evaluates the short-term efficacy of HBM versus hydrocortisone 1% ointment in infants with mild to moderate atopic dermatitis (AD). We conducted a randomized clinical trial among infants with diagnosed AD within a pediatrics unit. The majority of AD cases in both groups were considered moderate severity. There were no significant differences between these two groups at days 0, 7, 14, and 21, and the interventions of both groups were found to have the same effects. The external validity and consequently the ability to generalize the findings may be diminished as this study was conducted in a single site. Owing to HBM and the hydrocortisone 1% ointment providing the same results in the healing of AD, HBM was used because of low cost and accessibility. © 2015 The International Society of Dermatology.

Incorporating partially identified sample segments into acreage estimation procedures: Estimates using only observations from the current year

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sielken, R. L., Jr. (Principal Investigator)

1981-01-01

Several methods of estimating individual crop acreages using a mixture of completely identified and partially identified (generic) segments from a single growing year are derived and discussed. A small Monte Carlo study of eight estimators is presented. The relative empirical behavior of these estimators is discussed as are the effects of segment sample size and amount of partial identification. The principle recommendations are (1) to not exclude, but rather incorporate partially identified sample segments into the estimation procedure, (2) try to avoid having a large percentage (say 80%) of only partially identified segments, in the sample, and (3) use the maximum likelihood estimator although the weighted least squares estimator and least squares ratio estimator both perform almost as well. Sets of spring small grains (North Dakota) data were used.

Mutations in Known Monogenic High Bone Mass Loci Only Explain a Small Proportion of High Bone Mass Cases

PubMed Central

Wheeler, Lawrie; Hardcastle, Sarah A; Appleton, Louise H; Addison, Kathryn A; Brugmans, Marieke; Clark, Graeme R; Ward, Kate A; Paggiosi, Margaret; Stone, Mike; Thomas, Joegi; Agarwal, Rohan; Poole, Kenneth ES; McCloskey, Eugene; Fraser, William D; Williams, Eleanor; Bullock, Alex N; Davey Smith, George; Brown, Matthew A; Tobias, Jon H; Duncan, Emma L

2015-01-01

ABSTRACT High bone mass (HBM) can be an incidental clinical finding; however, monogenic HBM disorders (eg, LRP5 or SOST mutations) are rare. We aimed to determine to what extent HBM is explained by mutations in known HBM genes. A total of 258 unrelated HBM cases were identified from a review of 335,115 DXA scans from 13 UK centers. Cases were assessed clinically and underwent sequencing of known anabolic HBM loci: LRP5 (exons 2, 3, 4), LRP4 (exons 25, 26), SOST (exons 1, 2, and the van Buchem's disease [VBD] 52‐kb intronic deletion 3′). Family members were assessed for HBM segregation with identified variants. Three‐dimensional protein models were constructed for identified variants. Two novel missense LRP5 HBM mutations ([c.518C>T; p.Thr173Met], [c.796C>T; p.Arg266Cys]) were identified, plus three previously reported missense LRP5 mutations ([c.593A>G; p.Asn198Ser], [c.724G>A; p.Ala242Thr], [c.266A>G; p.Gln89Arg]), associated with HBM in 11 adults from seven families. Individuals with LRP5 HBM (∼prevalence 5/100,000) displayed a variable phenotype of skeletal dysplasia with increased trabecular BMD and cortical thickness on HRpQCT, and gynoid fat mass accumulation on DXA, compared with both non‐LRP5 HBM and controls. One mostly asymptomatic woman carried a novel heterozygous nonsense SOST mutation (c.530C>A; p.Ser177X) predicted to prematurely truncate sclerostin. Protein modeling suggests the severity of the LRP5‐HBM phenotype corresponds to the degree of protein disruption and the consequent effect on SOST‐LRP5 binding. We predict p.Asn198Ser and p.Ala242Thr directly disrupt SOST binding; both correspond to severe HBM phenotypes (BMD Z‐scores +3.1 to +12.2, inability to float). Less disruptive structural alterations predicted from p.Arg266Cys, p.Thr173Met, and p.Gln89Arg were associated with less severe phenotypes (Z‐scores +2.4 to +6.2, ability to float). In conclusion, although mutations in known HBM loci may be asymptomatic, they only

Factors predicting high estimated 10-year stroke risk: thai epidemiologic stroke study.

PubMed

Hanchaiphiboolkul, Suchat; Puthkhao, Pimchanok; Towanabut, Somchai; Tantirittisak, Tasanee; Wangphonphatthanasiri, Khwanrat; Termglinchan, Thanes; Nidhinandana, Samart; Suwanwela, Nijasri Charnnarong; Poungvarin, Niphon

2014-08-01

The purpose of the study was to determine the factors predicting high estimated 10-year stroke risk based on a risk score, and among the risk factors comprising the risk score, which factors had a greater impact on the estimated risk. Thai Epidemiologic Stroke study was a community-based cohort study, which recruited participants from the general population from 5 regions of Thailand. Cross-sectional baseline data of 16,611 participants aged 45-69 years who had no history of stroke were included in this analysis. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to identify the predictors of high estimated 10-year stroke risk based on the risk score of the Japan Public Health Center Study, which estimated the projected 10-year risk of incident stroke. Educational level, low personal income, occupation, geographic area, alcohol consumption, and hypercholesterolemia were significantly associated with high estimated 10-year stroke risk. Among these factors, unemployed/house work class had the highest odds ratio (OR, 3.75; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.47-5.69) followed by illiterate class (OR, 2.30; 95% CI, 1.44-3.66). Among risk factors comprising the risk score, the greatest impact as a stroke risk factor corresponded to age, followed by male sex, diabetes mellitus, systolic blood pressure, and current smoking. Socioeconomic status, in particular, unemployed/house work and illiterate class, might be good proxy to identify the individuals at higher risk of stroke. The most powerful risk factors were older age, male sex, diabetes mellitus, systolic blood pressure, and current smoking. Copyright © 2014 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Global Burden of Leptospirosis: Estimated in Terms of Disability Adjusted Life Years

PubMed Central

Torgerson, Paul R.; Hagan, José E.; Costa, Federico; Calcagno, Juan; Kane, Michael; Martinez-Silveira, Martha S.; Goris, Marga G. A.; Stein, Claudia; Ko, Albert I.; Abela-Ridder, Bernadette

2015-01-01

Background Leptospirosis, a spirochaetal zoonosis, occurs in diverse epidemiological settings and affects vulnerable populations, such as rural subsistence farmers and urban slum dwellers. Although leptospirosis can cause life-threatening disease, there is no global burden of disease estimate in terms of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) available. Methodology/Principal Findings We utilised the results of a parallel publication that reported global estimates of morbidity and mortality due to leptospirosis. We estimated Years of Life Lost (YLLs) from age and gender stratified mortality rates. Years of Life with Disability (YLDs) were developed from a simple disease model indicating likely sequelae. DALYs were estimated from the sum of YLLs and YLDs. The study suggested that globally approximately 2·90 million DALYs are lost per annum (UIs 1·25–4·54 million) from the approximately annual 1·03 million cases reported previously. Males are predominantly affected with an estimated 2·33 million DALYs (UIs 0·98–3·69) or approximately 80% of the total burden. For comparison, this is over 70% of the global burden of cholera estimated by GBD 2010. Tropical regions of South and South-east Asia, Western Pacific, Central and South America, and Africa had the highest estimated leptospirosis disease burden. Conclusions/Significance Leptospirosis imparts a significant health burden worldwide, which approach or exceed those encountered for a number of other zoonotic and neglected tropical diseases. The study findings indicate that highest burden estimates occur in resource-poor tropical countries, which include regions of Africa where the burden of leptospirosis has been under-appreciated and possibly misallocated to other febrile illnesses such as malaria. PMID:26431366

The French human biomonitoring program: First lessons from the perinatal component and future needs.

PubMed

Dereumeaux, Clémentine; Fillol, Clémence; Charles, Marie-Aline; Denys, Sébastien

2017-03-01

This paper presents a progress report of the French human biomonitoring (HBM) program established in 2010. This program has been designed to provide a national representative estimation of the French population's exposure to various environmental chemicals and to study the determinants of exposure. This program currently consists in two surveys: a perinatal component related to a selection of 4145 pregnant women who have been enrolled in the Elfe cohort (the French Longitudinal Study since Childhood) in 2011, and a general population survey related to adults aged 18-74 years and children as from 6 years (Esteban). The aim of this manuscript is to present highlights of the French human biomonitoring program with particular focus on the prioritization of biomarkers to be analyzed in the program and the selection of biomarkers applied to both program components. The Delphi method was used to establish a consensual list of prioritized biomarkers in 2011. First results of the perinatal component of the French HBM program have shown that the biomarkers prioritized were relevant, as almost all pregnant women were exposed to them. However, for some biomarkers, levels' decreases have been observed which may partly be explained by measures taken to prohibit some of these chemicals (e.g. atrazine) and by industrial processes evolutions leading to the substitution of others (e.g. bisphenol A, di-2-ethylhexyl phthalate/DEHP, dialkyl phosphates). Therefore, the list of biomarkers to be monitored in the French HBM program has been implemented to include some substitutes of biomarkers prioritized in the first instance (e.g. bisphenol S, F). Finally, this method combines rigor and flexibility and helped us to build a prioritized list that will be shared and supported by many if not all actors. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Towards an Effective Health Interventions Design: An Extension of the Health Belief Model

PubMed Central

Orji, Rita; Vassileva, Julita; Mandryk, Regan

2012-01-01

Introduction The recent years have witnessed a continuous increase in lifestyle related health challenges around the world. As a result, researchers and health practitioners have focused on promoting healthy behavior using various behavior change interventions. The designs of most of these interventions are informed by health behavior models and theories adapted from various disciplines. Several health behavior theories have been used to inform health intervention designs, such as the Theory of Planned Behavior, the Transtheoretical Model, and the Health Belief Model (HBM). However, the Health Belief Model (HBM), developed in the 1950s to investigate why people fail to undertake preventive health measures, remains one of the most widely employed theories of health behavior. However, the effectiveness of this model is limited. The first limitation is the low predictive capacity (R2 < 0.21 on average) of existing HBM’s variables coupled with the small effect size of individual variables. The second is lack of clear rules of combination and relationship between the individual variables. In this paper, we propose a solution that aims at addressing these limitations as follows: (1) we extended the Health Belief Model by introducing four new variables: Self-identity, Perceived Importance, Consideration of Future Consequences, and Concern for Appearance as possible determinants of healthy behavior. (2) We exhaustively explored the relationships/interactions between the HBM variables and their effect size. (3) We tested the validity of both our proposed extended model and the original HBM on healthy eating behavior. Finally, we compared the predictive capacity of the original HBM model and our extended model. Methods: To achieve the objective of this paper, we conducted a quantitative study of 576 participants’ eating behavior. Data for this study were collected over a period of one year (from August 2011 to August 2012). The questionnaire consisted of validated scales

First reported case of Haemoglobin-M Hyde Park in a Malay family living in Malaysia.

PubMed

Loong, Tang Yee; Chong, Doris Lau Sie; Jamal, A Rahman A; Murad, Nor Azian Abdul; Sabudin, Raja Zahratul Azma Raja; Fun, Leong Chooi

2016-01-01

Haemoglobin (Hb)-M Hyde Park, also known as Hb-M Akita is a rare type of hereditary Hb M due to autosomal dominant mutation of CAC>TAC on codon 92 of β globin gene resulting in the replacement of histidine by tyrosine on β globin chain. This variant Hb has a tendency to form methaemoglobin (metHb). The iron ion in metHb is oxidized to ferric (Fe3+) which is unable to carry oxygen and the patients manifest as cyanosis clinically. A 9-year-old Malay girl was incidentally found to be cyanotic when she presented to a health clinic. Laboratory investigations revealed raised methaemoglobin levels and Hb analysis findings were consistent with Hb-M Hyde Park. β gene sequencing confirmed a point mutation of CAC>TAC on codon 92 in one of the β genes. The family study done on the individuals with cyanosis showed similar findings. A diagnosis of heterozygous Hb-M Hyde Park was made. Patients with this variant Hb usually presented with cyanosis with mild haemolysis and maybe misdiagnosed as congenital heart disease. No further treatment is needed as patients are relatively asymptomatic. Although the disease is harmless in the heterozygous carriers but the offspring of the carriers may suffer severe haemolytic anaemia when the offspring also inherit other β haemoglobinopathies/thalassemia. This can happen due to high prevalence of β thalassemia carrier (3.5-4 %) found in Malaysia. At the time of writing, this is the first case of hereditary Hb-M Hyde Park diagnosed in a Malay family living in Malaysia.

Military Construction and Family Housing Program. Fiscal Year (FY) 2001 Budget Estimates

DTIC Science & Technology

2000-02-01

Department of the Air Force Military Construction and Family Housing Program Fiscal Year (FY) 2001 Budget Estimates Justification Data...Department of the Air Force Military Construction and Military Family Housing Program Summary Fiscal Year 2001 Appropriation Authorization Request... FISCAL YEAR 2001 (DOLLARS IN THOUSANDS) STATE/COUNTRY INSTALLATION TITLE APPROP REQUEST AUTH REQUEST PAGE INSIDE THE U.S. ALABAMA

A novel human breast milk-fed piglet model to examine persistent effects of neonatal diet on duodenal microbiota composition

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Sow milk (SM) feeding has been studied in piglets as a model of human breast milk (HBM) feeding in infants; however, the composition of HBM differs from SM and may impart differing effects on colonization of the gut microbiota. The objective of this study was to determine if HBM feeding from birth t...

A Health Belief Model-Social Learning Theory approach to adolescents' fertility control: findings from a controlled field trial.

PubMed

Eisen, M; Zellman, G L; McAlister, A L

1992-01-01

We evaluated an 8- to 12-hour Health Belief Model-Social Learning Theory (HBM-SLT)-based sex education program against several community- and school-based interventions in a controlled field experiment. Data on sexual and contraceptive behavior were collected from 1,444 adolescents unselected for gender, race/ethnicity, or virginity status in a pretest-posttest design. Over 60% completed the one-year follow-up. Multivariate analyses were conducted separately for each preintervention virginity status by gender grouping. The results revealed differential program impacts. First, for preintervention virgins, there were no gender or intervention differences in abstinence maintenance over the follow-up year. Second, female preintervention Comparison program virgins used effective contraceptive methods more consistently than those who attended the HBM-SLT program (p less than 0.01); among males, the intervention programs were equally effective. Third, both interventions significantly increased contraceptive efficiency for teenagers who were sexually active before attending the programs. For males, the HBM-SLT program led to significantly greater follow-up contraceptive efficiency than the Comparison program with preintervention contraceptive efficiency controlled (p less than 0.05); for females, the programs produced equivalent improvement. Implications for program planning and evaluation are discussed.

Factors That Influence Israeli Muslim Arab Parents' Intention to Vaccinate Their Children Against Influenza.

PubMed

Ben Natan, Merav; Kabha, Samih; Yehia, Mamon; Hamza, Omar

2016-01-01

The purpose of the current study was to explore factors related to the intention of parents from the Muslim Arab ethnic minority in Israel to vaccinate their children against influenza, using the Health Belief Model (HBM). This study is a cross sectional quantitative study. A convenience sample of 200 parents of children aged 12 and younger completed a questionnaire based on the HBM. Perceived susceptibility, severity, benefits, and barriers predicted 88% of parents' intention to vaccinate their children. Parents who vaccinated their children in the past year were younger and had fewer children. Community nurses and physicians were identified as important cues to action. The HBM components predicted a high percentage of parents' intention to vaccinate their children Interventions to raise vaccination coverage rates among children belonging to an ethnic minority of Israeli Muslim Arabs should begin on the micro level of the parent-health care professional encounter. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Effect of Health Education Program Based on Health Belief Model on Oral Health Behaviors in Pregnant Women of Fasa City, Fars Province, South of Iran.

PubMed

Jeihooni, Ali Khani; Jamshidi, Hassan; Kashfi, Seyyed Mansour; Avand, Abolghasem; Khiyali, Zahra

2017-01-01

Pregnant women are at risk of dental caries and periodontal disease. The purpose of this study was to assess the effectiveness of health education program based on health belief model (HBM) on oral and dental hygiene behaviors in pregnant women in Fasa city. This is a clinical trial study carried out on 110 pregnant women selected using random sampling method from health centers in Fasa city in 2016 (55 patients in the experimental group and 55 individuals in control group). Data collection with questionnaire was based on construct HBM, as well as their performance about oral health. At first, two groups completed the questionnaires. And then, the intervention was conducted for the experimental group based on HBM. Four months after intervention, two groups completed the questionnaires twice. To analyze the collected data, the researchers used SPSS version 22 and descriptive and analytical statistics tests such as independent t -test and Chi-square and Mann-Whitney test. The age of the pregnant mothers was 28.25 ± 3.02 years in the experimental group and 27.8 ± 4.20 years in the control group. Compared to the control group, the experimental group showed a significant increase in their knowledge, perceived susceptibility, perceived severity, perceived benefits, self-efficacy, cues to action, and performance and decrease in perceived barriers 4 months after the intervention. Applying the HBM is very effective for developing an educational program for oral health in pregnant women. Moreover, in the implementation of these programs, control, monitoring, and follow-up educational are recommended.

Estimation of the year-on-year volatility and the unpredictability of the United States energy system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sherwin, Evan D.; Henrion, Max; Azevedo, Inês M. L.

2018-04-01

Long-term projections of energy consumption, supply and prices heavily influence decisions regarding long-lived energy infrastructure. Predicting the evolution of these quantities over multiple years to decades is a difficult task. Here, we estimate year-on-year volatility and unpredictability over multi-decade time frames for many quantities in the US energy system using historical projections. We determine the distribution over time of the most extreme projection errors (unpredictability) from 1985 to 2014, and the largest year-over-year changes (volatility) in the quantities themselves from 1949 to 2014. Our results show that both volatility and unpredictability have increased in the past decade, compared to the three and two decades before it. These findings may be useful for energy decision-makers to consider as they invest in and regulate long-lived energy infrastructure in a deeply uncertain world.

Crossover effect of spouse weekly working hours on estimated 10-years risk of cardiovascular disease.

PubMed

Kang, Mo-Yeol; Hong, Yun-Chul

2017-01-01

To investigate the association between spouse weekly working hours (SWWH) and the estimated 10-years risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). This cross-sectional study was based on the data obtained from the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2007-2012. Data of 16,917 participants (8,330 husbands, 8,587 wives) were used for this analysis. The participants' clinical data were collected to estimate the 10-years risk of CVD, as well as weekly working hours. Multiple logistic regression was conducted to investigate the association between SWWH and the estimated 10-years risk of CVD. We also performed a stratified analysis according to each participant's and their spouse's employment status. Compared to those whose spouses worked 30 hours per week, estimated 10-years risk of CVD was significantly higher as SWWH increase among those whose spouses worked >30 hours per week. After adjusting for covariates, the odds ratio for high CVD risk was found to increase as SWWH increased, up to 2.52 among husbands and 2.43 among wives. We also found that the association between SWWH and the estimated 10-years risk of CVD varied according to the employment status. Analysis of each component included in the CVD appraisal model showed that SWWH had close relationship with diabetes in men, and smoking habits in women. Spouse's long working hours are associated with individual's risk of CVD in future, especially among husbands.

[DOPPS estimate of patient life years attributable to modifiable hemodialysis practices in France].

PubMed

Canaud, Bernard; Combe, Christian; Bragg-Gresham, Jennifer L; Eichleay, Margaret A; Pisoni, Ronald L; Port, Friedrich K

2008-07-01

In this study, we used a prevalent cross-sectional sample of French hemodialysis patients from Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study (DOPPS) 2 (2002-2004) to determine the percentage of patients whose values failed to meet targets in six different areas of hemodialysis practice (dialysis dose, anemia, serum phosphorus (PO(4)), serum calcium (Ca), serum albumin and catheter use for vascular access). Cox survival models, with adjustments for patient characteristics, were used for these analyses to estimate mortality hazard ratios (HR). Based on the mortality HR, the fraction of patients outside each target and the total HD population in France, we estimated the number of patient life years that could potentially be gained if every chronic, in-center hemodialysis patient in France who is currently outside of the specified target was able to achieve it. The proportion of patients failing to meet one of the six practice targets in France varied from 15% (dialysis dose) to 75% (albumin) while the percentage of patients complying with all six targets was restricted to 1.2%. The relative risk of mortality (RR) associated with being outside these targets varied from 1.12 to 1.46. Based on these two measures the life-years survival was estimated. The projected number of patients and life years potentially gained from adherence to the six targets was estimated close to 10,600 years-patient. In conclusion, this study suggests large opportunities to improve hemodialysis patient care in France still exist. Compliance with two major practice targets, such as albumin and restriction of catheter use will save highly significant life years of hemodialysis patient. Implementing and strict adherence to national and international guidelines should serve as a basic inspiration for continual improvement of hemodialysis patient care.

Multi-year Estimates of Methane Fluxes in Alaska from an Atmospheric Inverse Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, S. M.; Commane, R.; Chang, R. Y. W.; Miller, C. E.; Michalak, A. M.; Dinardo, S. J.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Hartery, S.; Karion, A.; Lindaas, J.; Sweeney, C.; Wofsy, S. C.

2015-12-01

We estimate methane fluxes across Alaska over a multi-year period using observations from a three-year aircraft campaign, the Carbon Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE). Existing estimates of methane from Alaska and other Arctic regions disagree in both magnitude and distribution, and before the CARVE campaign, atmospheric observations in the region were sparse. We combine these observations with an atmospheric particle trajectory model and a geostatistical inversion to estimate surface fluxes at the model grid scale. We first use this framework to estimate the spatial distribution of methane fluxes across the state. We find the largest fluxes in the south-east and North Slope regions of Alaska. This distribution is consistent with several estimates of wetland extent but contrasts with the distribution in most existing flux models. These flux models concentrate methane in warmer or more southerly regions of Alaska compared to the estimate presented here. This result suggests a discrepancy in how existing bottom-up models translate wetland area into methane fluxes across the state. We next use the inversion framework to explore inter-annual variability in regional-scale methane fluxes for 2012-2014. We examine the extent to which this variability correlates with weather or other environmental conditions. These results indicate the possible sensitivity of wetland fluxes to near-term variability in climate.

Intrinsic material properties of cortical bone.

PubMed

Lopez Franco, Gloria E; Blank, Robert D; Akhter, Mohammed P

2011-01-01

The G171V mutation (high bone mass, HBM) is autosomal dominant and is responsible for high bone mass in humans. Transgenic HBM mice in which the human LRP5 G171V gene is inserted also show a similar phenotype with greater bone mass and biomechanical performance than wild-type mice, as determined by whole bone testing. Whole bone mechanics, however, depend jointly on bone mass, architecture, and intrinsic bone tissue mechanical properties. To determine whether the HBM mutation affects tissue-level biomechanical performance, we performed nano-indentation testing of unembedded cortical bone from HBM mice and their nontransgenic (NTG) littermates. Femora from 17-week-old mice (female, 8 mice/genotype) were subjected to nano-indentation using a Triboscope (Hysitron, Minneapolis, MN, USA). For each femoral specimen, approximately 10 indentations were made on the midshaft anterior surface with a target force of either 3 or 9 mN at a constant loading rate of 400 mN/s. The load-displacement data from each test were used to calculate indentation modulus and hardness for bone tissue. The intrinsic material property that reflected the bone modulus was greater (48%) in the HBM as compared to the NTG mice. Our results of intrinsic properties are consistent with the published structural and material properties of the midshaft femur in HBM and NTG mice. The greater intrinsic modulus in HBM reflects greater bone mineral content as compared to NTG (wild-type, WT) mice. This study suggests that the greater intrinsic property of cortical bone is derived from the greater bone mineral content and BMD, resulting in greater bone strength in HBM as compared to NTG (WT) mice.

Psychological impact of providing women with personalised 10-year breast cancer risk estimates.

PubMed

French, David P; Southworth, Jake; Howell, Anthony; Harvie, Michelle; Stavrinos, Paula; Watterson, Donna; Sampson, Sarah; Evans, D Gareth; Donnelly, Louise S

2018-05-08

The Predicting Risk of Cancer at Screening (PROCAS) study estimated 10-year breast cancer risk for 53,596 women attending NHS Breast Screening Programme. The present study, nested within the PROCAS study, aimed to assess the psychological impact of receiving breast cancer risk estimates, based on: (a) the Tyrer-Cuzick (T-C) algorithm including breast density or (b) T-C including breast density plus single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), versus (c) comparison women awaiting results. A sample of 2138 women from the PROCAS study was stratified by testing groups: T-C only, T-C(+SNPs) and comparison women; and by 10-year risk estimates received: 'moderate' (5-7.99%), 'average' (2-4.99%) or 'below average' (<1.99%) risk. Postal questionnaires were returned by 765 (36%) women. Overall state anxiety and cancer worry were low, and similar for women in T-C only and T-C(+SNPs) groups. Women in both T-C only and T-C(+SNPs) groups showed lower-state anxiety but slightly higher cancer worry than comparison women awaiting results. Risk information had no consistent effects on intentions to change behaviour. Most women were satisfied with information provided. There was considerable variation in understanding. No major harms of providing women with 10-year breast cancer risk estimates were detected. Research to establish the feasibility of risk-stratified breast screening is warranted.

Estimating numbers of females with cubs-of-the-year in the Yellowstone grizzly bear population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keating, K.A.; Schwartz, C.C.; Haroldson, M.A.; Moody, D.

2001-01-01

For grizzly bears (Ursus arctos horribilis) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), minimum population size and allowable numbers of human-caused mortalities have been calculated as a function of the number of unique females with cubs-of-the-year (FCUB) seen during a 3- year period. This approach underestimates the total number of FCUB, thereby biasing estimates of population size and sustainable mortality. Also, it does not permit calculation of valid confidence bounds. Many statistical methods can resolve or mitigate these problems, but there is no universal best method. Instead, relative performances of different methods can vary with population size, sample size, and degree of heterogeneity among sighting probabilities for individual animals. We compared 7 nonparametric estimators, using Monte Carlo techniques to assess performances over the range of sampling conditions deemed plausible for the Yellowstone population. Our goal was to estimate the number of FCUB present in the population each year. Our evaluation differed from previous comparisons of such estimators by including sample coverage methods and by treating individual sightings, rather than sample periods, as the sample unit. Consequently, our conclusions also differ from earlier studies. Recommendations regarding estimators and necessary sample sizes are presented, together with estimates of annual numbers of FCUB in the Yellowstone population with bootstrap confidence bounds.

Parameter study for child injury mitigation in near-side impacts through FE simulations.

PubMed

Andersson, Marianne; Pipkorn, Bengt; Lövsund, Per

2012-01-01

The objective of this study is to investigate the effects of crash-related car parameters on head and chest injury measures for 3- and 12-year-old children in near-side impacts. The evaluation was made using a model of a complete passenger car that was impacted laterally by a barrier. The car model was validated in 2 crash conditions: the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) and the US New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) side impact tests. The Small Side Impact Dummy (SID-IIs) and the human body model 3 (HBM3) (Total HUman Model for Safety [THUMS] 3-year-old) finite element models were used for the parametric investigation (HBM3 on a booster). The car parameters were as follows: vehicle mass, side impact structure stiffness, a head air bag, a thorax-pelvis air bag, and a seat belt with pretensioner. The studied dependent variables were as follows: resultant head linear acceleration, resultant head rotational acceleration, chest viscous criterion, rib deflection, and relative velocity at head impact. The chest measurements were only considered for the SID-IIs. The head air bag had the greatest effect on the head measurements for both of the occupant models. On average, it reduced the peak head linear acceleration by 54 g for the HBM3 and 78 g for the SID-IIs. The seat belt had the second greatest effect on the head measurements; the peak head linear accelerations were reduced on average by 39 g (HBM3) and 44 g (SID-IIs). The high stiffness side structure increased the SID-IIs' head acceleration, whereas it had marginal effect on the HBM3. The vehicle mass had a marginal effect on SID-IIs' head accelerations, whereas the lower vehicle mass caused 18 g higher head acceleration for HBM3 and the greatest rotational acceleration. The thorax-pelvis air bag, vehicle mass, and seat belt pretensioner affected the chest measurements the most. The presence of a thorax-pelvis air bag, high vehicle mass, and a seat belt pretensioner all reduced the chest viscous criterion

Methods for estimating flood frequency in Montana based on data through water year 1998

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrett, Charles; Johnson, Dave R.

2004-01-01

Annual peak discharges having recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years (T-year floods) were determined for 660 gaged sites in Montana and in adjacent areas of Idaho, Wyoming, and Canada, based on data through water year 1998. The updated flood-frequency information was subsequently used in regression analyses, either ordinary or generalized least squares, to develop equations relating T-year floods to various basin and climatic characteristics, equations relating T-year floods to active-channel width, and equations relating T-year floods to bankfull width. The equations can be used to estimate flood frequency at ungaged sites. Montana was divided into eight regions, within which flood characteristics were considered to be reasonably homogeneous, and the three sets of regression equations were developed for each region. A measure of the overall reliability of the regression equations is the average standard error of prediction. The average standard errors of prediction for the equations based on basin and climatic characteristics ranged from 37.4 percent to 134.1 percent. Average standard errors of prediction for the equations based on active-channel width ranged from 57.2 percent to 141.3 percent. Average standard errors of prediction for the equations based on bankfull width ranged from 63.1 percent to 155.5 percent. In most regions, the equations based on basin and climatic characteristics generally had smaller average standard errors of prediction than equations based on active-channel or bankfull width. An exception was the Southeast Plains Region, where all equations based on active-channel width had smaller average standard errors of prediction than equations based on basin and climatic characteristics or bankfull width. Methods for weighting estimates derived from the basin- and climatic-characteristic equations and the channel-width equations also were developed. The weights were based on the cross correlation of residuals from the

The Contribution of Pre-impact Spine Posture on Human Body Model Response in Whole-body Side Impact.

PubMed

Poulard, David; Subit, Damien; Donlon, John-Paul; Lessley, David J; Kim, Taewung; Park, Gwansik; Kent, Richard W

2014-11-01

The objective of the study was to analyze independently the contribution of pre-impact spine posture on impact response by subjecting a finite element human body model (HBM) to whole-body, lateral impacts. Seven postured models were created from the original HBM: one matching the standard driving posture and six matching pre-impact posture measured for each of six subjects tested in previously published experiments. The same measurements as those obtained during the experiments were calculated from the simulations, and biofidelity metrics based on signals correlation were established to compare the response of HBM to that of the cadavers. HBM responses showed good correlation with the subject response for the reaction forces, the rib strain (correlation score=0.8) and the overall kinematics. The pre-impact posture was found to greatly alter the reaction forces, deflections and the strain time histories mainly in terms of time delay. By modifying only the posture of HBM, the variability in the impact response was found to be equivalent to that observed in the experiments performed with cadavers with different anthropometries. The patterns observed in the responses of the postured HBM indicate that the inclination of the spine in the frontal plane plays a major role. The postured HBM sustained from 2 to 5 bone fractures, including the scapula in some cases, confirming that the pre-impact posture influences the injury outcome predicted by the simulation.

Effect of alcohol on skin permeation and metabolism of an ester-type prodrug in Yucatan micropig skin.

PubMed

Fujii, Makiko; Ohara, Rieko; Matsumi, Azusa; Ohura, Kayoko; Koizumi, Naoya; Imai, Teruko; Watanabe, Yoshiteru

2017-11-15

We studied the effect that three alcohols, ethanol (EA), propanol (PA), and isopropanol (IPA), have on the skin permeation of p-hydroxy benzoic acid methyl ester (HBM), a model ester-type prodrug. HBM was applied to Yucatan micropig skin in a saturated phosphate buffered solution with or without 10% alcohol, and HBM and related materials in receptor fluid and skin were determined with HPLC. In the absence of alcohol, p-hydroxy benzoic acid (HBA), a metabolite of HBM, permeated the skin the most. The three alcohols enhanced the penetration of HBM at almost the same extent. The addition of 10% EA or PA to the HBM solution led to trans-esterification into the ethyl ester or propyl ester of HBA, and these esters permeated skin as well as HBA and HBM did. In contrast, the addition of 10% IPA promoted very little trans-esterification. Both hydrolysis and trans-esterification in the skin S9 fraction were inhibited by BNPP, an inhibitor of carboxylesterase (CES). Western blot and native PAGE showed the abundant expression of CES in micropig skin. Both hydrolysis and trans-esterification was simultaneously catalyzed by CES during skin permeation. Our data indicate that the alcohol used in dermal drug preparations should be selected not only for its ability to enhance the solubility and permeation of the drug, but also for the effect on metabolism of the drug in the skin. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimation of single-year-of-age counts of live births, fetal losses, abortions, and pregnant women for counties of Texas.

PubMed

Singh, Bismark; Meyers, Lauren Ancel

2017-05-08

We provide a methodology for estimating counts of single-year-of-age live-births, fetal-losses, abortions, and pregnant women from aggregated age-group counts. As a case study, we estimate counts for the 254 counties of Texas for the year 2010. We use interpolation to estimate counts of live-births, fetal-losses, and abortions by women of each single-year-of-age for all Texas counties. We then use these counts to estimate the numbers of pregnant women for each single-year-of-age, which were previously available only in aggregate. To support public health policy and planning, we provide single-year-of-age estimates of live-births, fetal-losses, abortions, and pregnant women for all Texas counties in the year 2010, as well as the estimation method source code.

'Sink or swim': an evaluation of the clinical characteristics of individuals with high bone mass.

PubMed

Gregson, C L; Steel, S A; O'Rourke, K P; Allan, K; Ayuk, J; Bhalla, A; Clunie, G; Crabtree, N; Fogelman, I; Goodby, A; Langman, C M; Linton, S; Marriott, E; McCloskey, E; Moss, K E; Palferman, T; Panthakalam, S; Poole, K E S; Stone, M D; Turton, J; Wallis, D; Warburton, S; Wass, J; Duncan, E L; Brown, M A; Davey-Smith, G; Tobias, J H

2012-02-01

High bone mineral density on routine dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) may indicate an underlying skeletal dysplasia. Two hundred fifty-eight individuals with unexplained high bone mass (HBM), 236 relatives (41% with HBM) and 58 spouses were studied. Cases could not float, had mandible enlargement, extra bone, broad frames, larger shoe sizes and increased body mass index (BMI). HBM cases may harbour an underlying genetic disorder. High bone mineral density is a sporadic incidental finding on routine DXA scanning of apparently asymptomatic individuals. Such individuals may have an underlying skeletal dysplasia, as seen in LRP5 mutations. We aimed to characterize unexplained HBM and determine the potential for an underlying skeletal dysplasia. Two hundred fifty-eight individuals with unexplained HBM (defined as L1 Z-score ≥ +3.2 plus total hip Z-score ≥ +1.2, or total hip Z-score ≥ +3.2) were recruited from 15 UK centres, by screening 335,115 DXA scans. Unexplained HBM affected 0.181% of DXA scans. Next 236 relatives were recruited of whom 94 (41%) had HBM (defined as L1 Z-score + total hip Z-score ≥ +3.2). Fifty-eight spouses were also recruited together with the unaffected relatives as controls. Phenotypes of cases and controls, obtained from clinical assessment, were compared using random-effects linear and logistic regression models, clustered by family, adjusted for confounders, including age and sex. Individuals with unexplained HBM had an excess of sinking when swimming (7.11 [3.65, 13.84], p < 0.001; adjusted odds ratio with 95% confidence interval shown), mandible enlargement (4.16 [2.34, 7.39], p < 0.001), extra bone at tendon/ligament insertions (2.07 [1.13, 3.78], p = 0.018) and broad frame (3.55 [2.12, 5.95], p < 0.001). HBM cases also had a larger shoe size (mean difference 0.4 [0.1, 0.7] UK sizes, p = 0.009) and increased BMI (mean difference 2.2 [1.3, 3.1] kg/m(2), p < 0.001). Individuals with

Global estimate of the incidence of clinical pneumonia among children under five years of age.

PubMed Central

Rudan, Igor; Tomaskovic, Lana; Boschi-Pinto, Cynthia; Campbell, Harry

2004-01-01

OBJECTIVE: Clinical pneumonia (defined as respiratory infections associated with clinical signs of pneumonia, principally pneumonia and bronchiolitis) in children under five years of age is still the leading cause of childhood mortality in the world. In this paper we aim to estimate the worldwide incidence of clinical pneumonia in young children. METHODS: Our estimate for the developing world is based on an analysis of published data on the incidence of clinical pneumonia from community based longitudinal studies. Among more than 2000 studies published since 1961, we identified 46 studies that reported the incidence of clinical pneumonia, and 28 of these met pre-defined quality criteria. FINDINGS: The estimate of the median incidence from those studies was 0.28 episodes per child-year (e/cy). The 25-75% interquartile range was 0.21-0.71. We assessed the plausibility of this estimate using estimates of global mortality from acute respiratory infections and reported case fatality rates for all episodes of clinical pneumonia reported in community-based studies or the case-fatality rate reported only for severe cases and estimates of the proportion of severe cases occurring in a defined population or community. CONCLUSION: The overlap between the ranges of the estimates implies that a plausible incidence estimate of clinical pneumonia for developing countries is 0.29 e/cy. This equates to an annual incidence of 150.7 million new cases, 11-20 million (7-13%) of which are severe enough to require hospital admission. In the developed world no comparable data are available. However, large population-based studies report that the incidence of community-acquired pneumonia among children less than five years old is approximately 0.026 e/cy, suggesting that more than 95% of all episodes of clinical pneumonia in young children worldwide occur in developing countries. PMID:15654403

Estimating Teacher Effectiveness from Two-Year Changes in Students' Test Scores

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leigh, Andrew

2010-01-01

Using a dataset covering over 10,000 Australian school teachers and over 90,000 pupils, I estimate how effective teachers are in raising students' test scores. Since the exams are biennial, it is necessary to take account of the teacher's work in the intervening year. Even adjusting for measurement error, the teacher fixed effects are widely…

A human body model with active muscles for simulation of pretensioned restraints in autonomous braking interventions.

PubMed

Osth, Jonas; Brolin, Karin; Bråse, Dan

2015-01-01

The aim of this work is to study driver and passenger kinematics in autonomous braking scenarios, with and without pretensioned seat belts, using a whole-body finite element (FE) human body model (HBM) with active muscles. Upper extremity musculature for elbow and shoulder flexion-extension feedback control was added to an HBM that was previously complemented with feedback controlled muscles for the trunk and neck. Controller gains were found using a radial basis function metamodel sampled by making 144 simulations of an 8 ms(-2) volunteer sled test. The HBM kinematics, interaction forces, and muscle activations were validated using a second volunteer data set for the passenger and driver positions, with and without 170 N seat belt pretension, in 11 ms(-2) autonomous braking deceleration. The HBM was then used for a parameter study in which seat belt pretension force and timing were varied from 170 to 570 N and from 0.25 s before to 0.15 s after deceleration onset, in an 11 ms(-2) autonomous braking scenario. The model validation showed that the forward displacements and interaction forces of the HBM correlated with those of corresponding volunteer tests. Muscle activations and head rotation angles were overestimated in the HBM when compared with volunteer data. With a standard seat belt in 11 ms(-2) autonomous braking interventions, the HBM exhibited peak forward head displacements of 153 and 232 mm for the driver and passenger positions. When 570 N seat belt pretension was applied 0.15 s before deceleration onset, a reduction of peak head displacements to 60 and 75 mm was predicted. Driver and passenger responses to autonomous braking with standard and pretensioned restraints were successfully modeled in a whole-body FE HBM with feedback controlled active muscles. Variations of belt pretension force level and timing revealed that belt pretension 0.15 s before deceleration onset had the largest effect in reducing forward head and torso movement caused

[Estimating the year of eradication of tuberculosis in Japan].

PubMed

Ohmori, M

1991-12-01

The time of eradication of tuberculosis has been discussed for several countries, and based on those results, a new strategic plan and goals have been elaborated. Considering such developments, and in order to make a new tuberculosis control strategy, it is important to determine the point at which eradication of tuberculosis would be achieved in Japan. Styblo proposed the two conventional definitions of eradication of tuberculosis, namely that the incidence of smear-positive tuberculosis has fallen below 1 per million population or that the prevalence of tuberculosis infection in the general population has fallen below 1% and continues to decrease. The bacteriological results of new cases have been reported since 1975 in Japan. However, those results are still of doubtful validity and reliability. Therefore, the author estimated the year of eradication of tuberculosis, according to the criterion that tuberculosis is eradicated when the proportion of the population infected with tubercle bacilli is less than 1%. If the risk of infection is changing at a regular rate, it is possible to estimate the risk of infection at any time in the past and in the future. Once the risk of infection is determined, it is also possible to calculate the age-specific prevalence of infection and the proportion of the population infected with tubercle bacilli at various times in the past and in the future. In Japan, the risk of infection before World War II was assumed to be around 4% and not to vary with calendar year. And based on the data from the prevalence surveys in Okinawa in 1968 and 1973, the risk of infection was estimated 0.3% in 1968 and has declined on average, by 10 to 11% annually. At that time, Okinawa was the only area free from BCG vaccination in Japan. The incidence rate in Japan also has declined, on average, by 10% annually. However, since late 1970s, the annual speed of decline of the incidence rate has been slowed down. Therefore, I assumed that the recent trend

New human biomonitoring methods for chemicals of concern-the German approach to enhance relevance.

PubMed

Kolossa-Gehring, Marike; Fiddicke, Ulrike; Leng, Gabriele; Angerer, Jürgen; Wolz, Birgit

2017-03-01

In Germany strong efforts have been made within the last years to develop new methods for human biomonitoring (HBM). The German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety (BMUB) and the German Chemical Industry Association e. V. (VCI) cooperate since 2010 to increase the knowledge on the internal exposure of the general population to chemicals. The projects aim is to promote human biomonitoring by developing new analytical methods Key partner of the cooperation is the German Environment Agency (UBA) which has been entrusted with the scientific coordination. Another key partner is the "HBM Expert Panel" which each year puts together a list of chemicals of interest to the project from which the Steering Committee of the project choses up to five substances for which method development will be started. Emphasis is placed on substances with either a potential health relevance or on substances to which the general population is potentially exposed to a considerable extent. The HBM Expert Panel also advises on method development. Once a method is developed, it is usually first applied to about 40 non-occupationally exposed individuals. A next step is applying the methods to different samples. Either, if the time trend is of major interest, to samples from the German Environmental Specimen Bank, or, in case exposure sources and distribution of exposure levels in the general population are the focus, the new methods are applied to samples from children and adolescents from the population representative 5th German Environmental Survey (GerES V). Results are expected in late 2018. This article describes the challenges faced during method development and solutions found. An overview presents the 34 selected substances, the 14 methods developed and the 7 HBM-I values derived in the period from 2010 to mid 2016. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier GmbH.. All rights reserved.

Evaluating estimators for numbers of females with cubs-of-the-year in the Yellowstone grizzly bear population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cherry, S.; White, G.C.; Keating, K.A.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Schwartz, Charles C.

2007-01-01

Current management of the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population in Yellowstone National Park and surrounding areas requires annual estimation of the number of adult female bears with cubs-of-the-year. We examined the performance of nine estimators of population size via simulation. Data were simulated using two methods for different combinations of population size, sample size, and coefficient of variation of individual sighting probabilities. We show that the coefficient of variation does not, by itself, adequately describe the effects of capture heterogeneity, because two different distributions of capture probabilities can have the same coefficient of variation. All estimators produced biased estimates of population size with bias decreasing as effort increased. Based on the simulation results we recommend the Chao estimator for model M h be used to estimate the number of female bears with cubs of the year; however, the estimator of Chao and Shen may also be useful depending on the goals of the research.

Prediction of safe driving Behaviours based on health belief model: the case of taxi drivers in Bandar Abbas, Iran.

PubMed

Razmara, Asghar; Aghamolaei, Teamur; Madani, Abdoulhossain; Hosseini, Zahra; Zare, Shahram

2018-03-20

Road accidents are among the main causes of mortality. As safe and secure driving is a key strategy to reduce car injuries and offenses, the present research aimed to explore safe driving behaviours among taxi drivers based on the Health Belief Model (HBM). This study was conducted on 184 taxi drivers in Bandar Abbas who were selected based on a multiple stratified sampling method. Data were collected by a questionnaire comprised of a demographic information section along with the constructs of the HBM. Data were analysed by SPSS ver19 via a Pearson's correlation coefficient and multiple regressions. The mean age of the participants was 45.1 years (SD = 11.1). They all had, on average, 10.3 (SD = 7/5) years of taxi driving experience. Among the HBM components, cues to action and perceived benefits were shown to be positively correlated with safe driving behaviours, while perceived barriers were negatively correlated. Cues to action, perceived barriers and perceived benefits were shown to be the strongest predictors of a safe drivers' behaviour. Based on the results of this study in designing health promotion programmes to improve safe driving behaviours among taxi drivers, cues to action, perceived benefits and perceived barriers are important. Therefore, advertising, the design of information campaigns, emphasis on the benefits of safe driving behaviours and modification barriers are recommended.

Estimated incidence of pertussis in people aged <50 years in the United States

PubMed Central

Chen, Chi-Chang; Balderston McGuiness, Catherine; Krishnarajah, Girishanthy; Blanchette, Christopher M.; Wang, Yuanyuan; Sun, Kainan; Buck, Philip O.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT The introduction of pertussis vaccination in the United States (US) in the 1940s has greatly reduced its burden. However, the incidence of pertussis is difficult to quantify, as many cases are not laboratory-confirmed or reported, particularly in adults. This study estimated pertussis incidence in a commercially insured US population aged <50 years. Data were extracted from IMS' PharMetrics Plus claims database for patients with a diagnosis of pertussis or cough illness using International Classification of Diseases (ICD-9) codes, a commercial outpatient laboratory database for patients with a pertussis laboratory test, and the Centers for Disease Control influenza surveillance database. US national pertussis incidence was projected using 3 methods: (1) diagnosed pertussis, defined as a claim for pertussis (ICD-9 033.0, 033.9, 484.3) during 2008–2013; (2) based on proxy pertussis predictive logistic regression models; (3) using the fraction of cough illness (ICD-9 033.0, 033.9, 484.3, 786.2, 466.0, 466.1, 487.1) attributed to laboratory-confirmed pertussis, estimated by time series linear regression models. Method 1 gave a projected annual incidence of diagnosed pertussis of 9/100,000, which was highest in those aged <1 year. Method 2 gave an average annual projected incidence of 21/100,000. Method 3 gave an overall regression-estimated weighted annual incidence of pertussis of 649/100,000, approximately 58–93 times higher than method 1 depending on the year. These estimations, which are consistent with considerable underreporting of pertussis in people aged <50 years and provide further evidence that the majority of cases go undetected, especially with increasing age, may aid in the development of public health programs to reduce pertussis burden. PMID:27246119

Estimating search engine index size variability: a 9-year longitudinal study.

PubMed

van den Bosch, Antal; Bogers, Toine; de Kunder, Maurice

One of the determining factors of the quality of Web search engines is the size of their index. In addition to its influence on search result quality, the size of the indexed Web can also tell us something about which parts of the WWW are directly accessible to the everyday user. We propose a novel method of estimating the size of a Web search engine's index by extrapolating from document frequencies of words observed in a large static corpus of Web pages. In addition, we provide a unique longitudinal perspective on the size of Google and Bing's indices over a nine-year period, from March 2006 until January 2015. We find that index size estimates of these two search engines tend to vary dramatically over time, with Google generally possessing a larger index than Bing. This result raises doubts about the reliability of previous one-off estimates of the size of the indexed Web. We find that much, if not all of this variability can be explained by changes in the indexing and ranking infrastructure of Google and Bing. This casts further doubt on whether Web search engines can be used reliably for cross-sectional webometric studies.

Comparacion de modelos de Educacion Sexual en el conocimiento y cambio de actitudes en practicas sexuales por alumnos de nivel superior en la region de Caguas, Puerto Rico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juan, Vallejo Ramos L.

In opposition to the Sexual Education Traditional Model (SETM) that is used in the state schools of Puerto Rico, the Health Beliefs Model (HBM) appears. It facilitates a curricular design that improves the ability of the students to respond to the group pressure by means of attitudes that stimulate sexual conducts of smaller risk of propagation of the Sexually Transmitted Diseases (STD). In addition, it provides activities to increase the self-esteem, the communication and the decision making. This investigation had the intention to compare the SETM and the HBM in the increase of knowledge and change of attitudes of high risk of propagation of the STD using a validated questionnaire (Agency of the United States for the International-USAID Development), named "Endesa 2007" and, adapted to Puerto Rico by the Dra.Marta Collazo to a sample of students between the 17 and 19 years of 2 state schools of San Lorenzo, as a pretest, and, selected by convenience. Then, a 10 hours training was administered to half of the students using the SETM to STD and condom use lessons. The other half of the students received additional lessons using the HBM. Finally, both groups took the questionnaire again as a posttest. The sample of students, in average, did not reach the knowledge and basic levels of attitudes towards the STD in the pretest. This reflected 2 possible implications on the SETM. In first place, that the way in which the STD is implemented as part of the Sexual Education curriculum is inefficient. Secondly, the possibility that the acquired information or attitudes does not have permanence. Culminated the questionnaire, the HBM increase the knowledge of the STD in 0.41 points (average) over the SETM. There was not a significant difference between both models, in attitudes, implying that both models are equally effective. The findings suggests that the HBM is more effective increasing the knowledge on the STD, but equally effective than the SETM in attitude change for the

An overview of human biomonitoring of environmental chemicals in the Canadian Health Measures Survey: 2007-2019.

PubMed

Haines, Douglas A; Saravanabhavan, Gurusankar; Werry, Kate; Khoury, Cheryl

2017-03-01

Human biomonitoring (HBM) is used to indicate and quantify exposure by measuring environmental chemicals, their metabolites or reaction products in biological specimens. The biomonitoring component of the Canadian Health Measures Survey (CHMS) is the most comprehensive initiative providing general population HBM data in Canada. The CHMS is an ongoing cross-sectional direct measures survey implemented in 2-year cycles. It provides nationally-representative data on health, nutritional status, environmental exposures, and related risks and protective characteristics. The survey follows a robust planning, design and sampling protocol as well as a comprehensive quality assurance and quality control regime implemented for all aspect of the survey to ensure the validity of the HBM results. HBM blood and urine data are available for CHMS cycles 1 (2007-2009), 2 (2009-2011) and 3 (2012-2013). Field collection has been completed for cycle 4 (2014-2015), with cycle 5 (2016-2017) in progress and cycle 6 planning (2018-2019) being finalized. Biomonitoring results for 279 chemicals are expected over the six cycles of the CHMS (220 in individual blood, urine or hair samples, and 59 in pooled serum samples). The chemicals include metals and trace elements, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), organochlorines, flame retardants, perfluoroalkyl substances, volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and metabolites, environmental phenols, triclocarban, acrylamide, pesticides (e.g., triazines, carbamates, organophosphates, phenoxy, pyrethroids) and/or their metabolites, chlorophenols, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) metabolites, phthalates and alternate plasticizer metabolites, and tobacco biomarkers. Approximately one half of the chemicals measured in individual blood and urine samples over the first three cycles were detected in more than 60% of samples. CHMS biomonitoring data have been used to establish baseline HBM concentrations in Canadians; inform public health, regulatory risk

The Boehringer Ingelheim employee study (Part 2): 10-year cardiovascular diseases risk estimation.

PubMed

Kempf, K; Martin, S; Döhring, C; Dugi, K; Haastert, B; Schneider, M

2016-10-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) may cause an economic burden to companies, but CVD risk estimations specific to working populations are lacking. To estimate the 10-year CVD risk in the Boehringer Ingelheim (BI) employee cohort and analyse the potential effect of hypothetical risk reduction interventions. We estimated CVD risk using the Framingham (FRS), PROCAM (PRS) and Reynolds (RRS) risk scores, using cross-sectional baseline data on BI Pharma employees collected from 2005 to 2011. Results were compared using Fisher's exact and Wilcoxon tests. The predictive ability of the score estimates was assessed using receiver-operating characteristics analyses. Among the 4005 study subjects, we estimated 10-year CVD risks of 35% (FRS), 9% (PRS) and 6% (RRS) for men and 10% (FRS), 4% (PRS) and 1% (RRS) for women. One hundred and thirty-four (6%) men and 111 (6%) women employees had current CVD. The best predictors of prevalent CVD were the FRS and the RRS for men [area-under-the-curve 0.62 (0.57-0.67) for both]. A hypothetical intervention that would improve systolic blood pressure, HbA1c (for diabetes), C-reactive protein, triglycerides and total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol by 10% each would potentially reduce expected CVD cases by 36-41% in men and 30-45% in women, and if smoking cessation is incorporated, by 39-45% and 30-55%, respectively, depending on the pre-intervention risk score. There was a substantial risk of developing CVD in this working cohort. Occupational health programmes with lifestyle interventions for high-risk individuals may be an effective risk reduction measure. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Occupational Medicine. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Combining Neural Networks with Existing Methods to Estimate 1 in 100-Year Flood Event Magnitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newson, A.; See, L.

2005-12-01

Over the last fifteen years artificial neural networks (ANN) have been shown to be advantageous for the solution of many hydrological modelling problems. The use of ANNs for flood magnitude estimation in ungauged catchments, however, is a relatively new and under researched area. In this paper ANNs are used to make estimates of the magnitude of the 100-year flood event (Q100) for a number of ungauged catchments. The data used in this study were provided by the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology's Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH), which contains information on catchments across the UK. Sixteen catchment descriptors for 719 catchments were used to train an ANN, which was split into a training, validation and test data set. The goodness-of-fit statistics on the test data set indicated good model performance, with an r-squared value of 0.8 and a coefficient of efficiency of 79 percent. Data for twelve ungauged catchments were then put through the trained ANN to produce estimates of Q100. Two other accepted methodologies were also employed: the FEH statistical method and the FSR (Flood Studies Report) design storm technique, both of which are used to produce flood frequency estimates. The advantage of developing an ANN model is that it provides a third figure to aid a hydrologist in making an accurate estimate. For six of the twelve catchments, there was a relatively low spread between estimates. In these instances, an estimate of Q100 could be made with a fair degree of certainty. Of the remaining six catchments, three had areas greater than 1000km2, which means the FSR design storm estimate cannot be used. Armed with the ANN model and the FEH statistical method the hydrologist still has two possible estimates to consider. For these three catchments, the estimates were also fairly similar, providing additional confidence to the estimation. In summary, the findings of this study have shown that an accurate estimation of Q100 can be made using the catchment descriptors of

Geostatistical Model-Based Estimates of Schistosomiasis Prevalence among Individuals Aged ≤20 Years in West Africa

PubMed Central

Schur, Nadine; Hürlimann, Eveline; Garba, Amadou; Traoré, Mamadou S.; Ndir, Omar; Ratard, Raoult C.; Tchuem Tchuenté, Louis-Albert; Kristensen, Thomas K.; Utzinger, Jürg; Vounatsou, Penelope

2011-01-01

Background Schistosomiasis is a water-based disease that is believed to affect over 200 million people with an estimated 97% of the infections concentrated in Africa. However, these statistics are largely based on population re-adjusted data originally published by Utroska and colleagues more than 20 years ago. Hence, these estimates are outdated due to large-scale preventive chemotherapy programs, improved sanitation, water resources development and management, among other reasons. For planning, coordination, and evaluation of control activities, it is essential to possess reliable schistosomiasis prevalence maps. Methodology We analyzed survey data compiled on a newly established open-access global neglected tropical diseases database (i) to create smooth empirical prevalence maps for Schistosoma mansoni and S. haematobium for individuals aged ≤20 years in West Africa, including Cameroon, and (ii) to derive country-specific prevalence estimates. We used Bayesian geostatistical models based on environmental predictors to take into account potential clustering due to common spatially structured exposures. Prediction at unobserved locations was facilitated by joint kriging. Principal Findings Our models revealed that 50.8 million individuals aged ≤20 years in West Africa are infected with either S. mansoni, or S. haematobium, or both species concurrently. The country prevalence estimates ranged between 0.5% (The Gambia) and 37.1% (Liberia) for S. mansoni, and between 17.6% (The Gambia) and 51.6% (Sierra Leone) for S. haematobium. We observed that the combined prevalence for both schistosome species is two-fold lower in Gambia than previously reported, while we found an almost two-fold higher estimate for Liberia (58.3%) than reported before (30.0%). Our predictions are likely to overestimate overall country prevalence, since modeling was based on children and adolescents up to the age of 20 years who are at highest risk of infection. Conclusion/Significance We

Estimating quality-adjusted life-year loss due to noncommunicable diseases in Korean adults through to the year 2040.

PubMed

Ock, Minsu; Han, Jung Won; Lee, Jin Yong; Kim, Seon-Ha; Jo, Min-Woo

2015-01-01

To estimate the loss in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) in Korean adults due to 13 noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) in 2010 and predict changes in QALY loss through to the year 2040. Thirteen NCDs (hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, stroke, myocardial infarction, angina, arthritis, osteoporosis, asthma, allergic rhinitis, atopic dermatitis, cataract, and depression) were selected from the Korean Community Health Survey 2010. The EuroQol five-dimensional questionnaire index from the Korean Community Health Survey 2010 and the Korean valuation set were used to estimate utility weights according to sex, age, and disease. Morbidity data were also obtained from the Korean Community Health Survey 2010. Mortality data according to disease and life expectancy were retrieved from the Korean Statistical Information Service. To predict future QALY loss, future population projection data from the Korean Statistical Information Service were used as substitutes for 2010 population size. Among the assessed 13 NCDs, the largest total QALY loss was for hypertension (513,113 QALYs; units are omitted hereafter), followed by arthritis (509,317) and stroke (431,049). The largest QALY loss due to mortality was stroke (306,733), whereas the largest QALY loss due to morbidity was arthritis (502,513). By applying the middle estimate of future population, the largest increase in total QALY loss between 2010 and 2040 was for hypertension (840,582), followed by stroke (719,076) and diabetes mellitus (474,607). Hypertension, arthritis, and stroke are important in terms of total QALY loss, which will continuous to increase because of aging. These results could be used to develop cost-effective interventions that reduce the burden of NCDs. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Estimated waterborne commerce statistics for calendar year 1996 : national totals and selected inland waterways

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-10-01

In order to provide waterborne commerce information as soon as possible, the Waterborne Commerce Statistics Center (WCSC) has prepared this summary document of estimated waterborne commerce statistics for calendar year 1996. The foreign import and ex...

Estimated waterborne commerce statistics for calendar year 1998 : national totals and selected inland waterways

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-07-30

In order to provide waterborne commerce information as soon as possible, the Waterborne Commerce Statistics Center(WCSC) has prepared this summary document of estimated waterborne commerce statistics for calendar year 1998. The foreign import and exp...

Human biomonitoring: Science and policy for a healthy future, April 17-19, 2016, Berlin, Germany.

PubMed

Joas, Anke; Schwedler, Gerda; Choi, Judy; Kolossa-Gehring, Marike

2017-03-01

Following the success of the 1st International Conference on Human Biomonitoring (HBM) in Berlin in 2010, the 2nd International Conference on Human Biomonitoring took place in Berlin from April 17-19, 2016 for an exchange and updates among participants on all aspects relating to HBM. Entitled "Science and Policy for a Healthy Future", the conference brought together international experts from the scientific sector, politics, authorities, industry, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and other involved associations. The conference took a critical look at today's chemicals that have a potential impact on human health and should be investigated as a matter of priority. It also discussed current activities and research efforts on HBM occurring worldwide, presented HBM success stories, and emphasized areas, where further research and focus are needed to improve the use of HBM for policy making. In many countries, HBM has been proven to be a useful tool and warning system to indicate problematic human exposure to pollutants and to evaluate the effectiveness of existing chemicals policy and regulations. However, important challenges remain such as exposure assessment of mixtures of chemicals, the development of analytical methods to detect new chemicals of concern (e.g., substitutes for phthalates), the identification of exposure sources, and the assessment of the impact of exposure on health. This brief report summarizes the discussions and contributions from this conference, which was jointly organized by the German Federal Environment Agency (UBA) and the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMUB). Copyright © 2017.

From Evidence-based Medicine to Human-based Medicine in Psychosomatics.

PubMed

Musalek, Michael

2016-08-23

Human-based medicine (HbM), a form of psychiatry that focuses not only on fragments and constructs but on the whole person, no longer finds its theoretical basis in the positivism of the modern era, but rather owes its central maxims to the post-modernist ideal that ultimate truths or objectivity in identifying the final cause of illness remain hidden from us for theoretical reasons alone. Evidence-based medicine (EbM) and HbM are thus not mutually exclusive opposites; rather, despite superficial differences in methods of diagnosis and treatment, EbM must be integrated into HbM as an indispensable component of the latter. Probably the most important difference between EbM and HbM lies in the aims and methods of treatment. In HbM the goal is no longer simply to make illnesses disappear but rather to allow the patient to return to a life that is as autonomous and happy as possible. The human being with all his or her potential and limitations once again becomes the measure of all things. This also implies, however, that the multidimensional diagnostics of HbM are oriented not only towards symptoms, pathogenesis, process and understanding but also to a greater degree towards the patient's resources. Treatment options and forms of therapy do not put the disease construct at the centre of the diagnostic and therapeutic interest, but have as their primary aim the reopening of the possibility of a largely autonomous and joyful life for the patient.

Southern African ancient genomes estimate modern human divergence to 350,000 to 260,000 years ago.

PubMed

Schlebusch, Carina M; Malmström, Helena; Günther, Torsten; Sjödin, Per; Coutinho, Alexandra; Edlund, Hanna; Munters, Arielle R; Vicente, Mário; Steyn, Maryna; Soodyall, Himla; Lombard, Marlize; Jakobsson, Mattias

2017-11-03

Southern Africa is consistently placed as a potential region for the evolution of Homo sapiens We present genome sequences, up to 13x coverage, from seven ancient individuals from KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The remains of three Stone Age hunter-gatherers (about 2000 years old) were genetically similar to current-day southern San groups, and those of four Iron Age farmers (300 to 500 years old) were genetically similar to present-day Bantu-language speakers. We estimate that all modern-day Khoe-San groups have been influenced by 9 to 30% genetic admixture from East Africans/Eurasians. Using traditional and new approaches, we estimate the first modern human population divergence time to between 350,000 and 260,000 years ago. This estimate increases the deepest divergence among modern humans, coinciding with anatomical developments of archaic humans into modern humans, as represented in the local fossil record. Copyright © 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

Breast cancer literacy and health beliefs related to breast cancer screening among American Indian women.

PubMed

Roh, Soonhee; Burnette, Catherine E; Lee, Yeon-Shim; Jun, Jung Sim; Lee, Hee Yun; Lee, Kyoung Hag

2018-08-01

The purpose of this article is to examine the health beliefs and literacy about breast cancer and their relationship with breast cancer screening among American Indian (AI) women. Using the Health Belief Model (HBM) and hierarchical logistic regression with data from a sample of 286 AI female adults residing in the Northern Plains, we found that greater awareness of breast cancer screening was linked to breast cancer screening practices. However, perceived barriers, one of the HBM constructs, prevented such screening practices. This study suggested that culturally relevant HBM factors should be targeted when developing culturally sensitive breast cancer prevention efforts.

Representational change and strategy use in children's number line estimation during the first years of primary school.

PubMed

White, Sonia L J; Szűcs, Dénes

2012-01-04

The objective of this study was to scrutinize number line estimation behaviors displayed by children in mathematics classrooms during the first three years of schooling. We extend existing research by not only mapping potential logarithmic-linear shifts but also provide a new perspective by studying in detail the estimation strategies of individual target digits within a number range familiar to children. Typically developing children (n = 67) from Years 1-3 completed a number-to-position numerical estimation task (0-20 number line). Estimation behaviors were first analyzed via logarithmic and linear regression modeling. Subsequently, using an analysis of variance we compared the estimation accuracy of each digit, thus identifying target digits that were estimated with the assistance of arithmetic strategy. Our results further confirm a developmental logarithmic-linear shift when utilizing regression modeling; however, uniquely we have identified that children employ variable strategies when completing numerical estimation, with levels of strategy advancing with development. In terms of the existing cognitive research, this strategy factor highlights the limitations of any regression modeling approach, or alternatively, it could underpin the developmental time course of the logarithmic-linear shift. Future studies need to systematically investigate this relationship and also consider the implications for educational practice.

Representational change and strategy use in children's number line estimation during the first years of primary school

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The objective of this study was to scrutinize number line estimation behaviors displayed by children in mathematics classrooms during the first three years of schooling. We extend existing research by not only mapping potential logarithmic-linear shifts but also provide a new perspective by studying in detail the estimation strategies of individual target digits within a number range familiar to children. Methods Typically developing children (n = 67) from Years 1-3 completed a number-to-position numerical estimation task (0-20 number line). Estimation behaviors were first analyzed via logarithmic and linear regression modeling. Subsequently, using an analysis of variance we compared the estimation accuracy of each digit, thus identifying target digits that were estimated with the assistance of arithmetic strategy. Results Our results further confirm a developmental logarithmic-linear shift when utilizing regression modeling; however, uniquely we have identified that children employ variable strategies when completing numerical estimation, with levels of strategy advancing with development. Conclusion In terms of the existing cognitive research, this strategy factor highlights the limitations of any regression modeling approach, or alternatively, it could underpin the developmental time course of the logarithmic-linear shift. Future studies need to systematically investigate this relationship and also consider the implications for educational practice. PMID:22217191

A multi-year estimate of methane fluxes in Alaska from CARVE atmospheric observations

PubMed Central

Miller, Scot M.; Miller, Charles E.; Commane, Roisin; Chang, Rachel Y.-W.; Dinardo, Steven J.; Henderson, John M.; Karion, Anna; Lindaas, Jakob; Melton, Joe R.; Miller, John B.; Sweeney, Colm; Wofsy, Steven C.; Michalak, Anna M.

2016-01-01

Methane (CH4) fluxes from Alaska and other arctic regions may be sensitive to thawing permafrost and future climate change, but estimates of both current and future fluxes from the region are uncertain. This study estimates CH4 fluxes across Alaska for 2012–2014 using aircraft observations from the Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE) and a geostatistical inverse model (GIM). We find that a simple flux model based on a daily soil temperature map and a static map of wetland extent reproduces the atmospheric CH4 observations at the state-wide, multi-year scale more effectively than global-scale, state-of-the-art process-based models. This result points to a simple and effective way of representing CH4 flux patterns across Alaska. It further suggests that contemporary process-based models can improve their representation of key processes that control fluxes at regional scales, and that more complex processes included in these models cannot be evaluated given the information content of available atmospheric CH4 observations. In addition, we find that CH4 emissions from the North Slope of Alaska account for 24% of the total statewide flux of 1.74 ± 0.44 Tg CH4 (for May–Oct.). Contemporary global-scale process models only attribute an average of 3% of the total flux to this region. This mismatch occurs for two reasons: process models likely underestimate wetland area in regions without visible surface water, and these models prematurely shut down CH4 fluxes at soil temperatures near 0°C. As a consequence, wetlands covered by vegetation and wetlands with persistently cold soils could be larger contributors to natural CH4 fluxes than in process estimates. Lastly, we find that the seasonality of CH4 fluxes varied during 2012–2014, but that total emissions did not differ significantly among years, despite substantial differences in soil temperature and precipitation; year-to-year variability in these environmental conditions did not affect

A multi-year estimate of methane fluxes in Alaska from CARVE atmospheric observations.

PubMed

Miller, Scot M; Miller, Charles E; Commane, Roisin; Chang, Rachel Y-W; Dinardo, Steven J; Henderson, John M; Karion, Anna; Lindaas, Jakob; Melton, Joe R; Miller, John B; Sweeney, Colm; Wofsy, Steven C; Michalak, Anna M

2016-10-01

Methane (CH 4 ) fluxes from Alaska and other arctic regions may be sensitive to thawing permafrost and future climate change, but estimates of both current and future fluxes from the region are uncertain. This study estimates CH 4 fluxes across Alaska for 2012-2014 using aircraft observations from the Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE) and a geostatistical inverse model (GIM). We find that a simple flux model based on a daily soil temperature map and a static map of wetland extent reproduces the atmospheric CH 4 observations at the state-wide, multi-year scale more effectively than global-scale, state-of-the-art process-based models. This result points to a simple and effective way of representing CH 4 flux patterns across Alaska. It further suggests that contemporary process-based models can improve their representation of key processes that control fluxes at regional scales, and that more complex processes included in these models cannot be evaluated given the information content of available atmospheric CH 4 observations. In addition, we find that CH 4 emissions from the North Slope of Alaska account for 24% of the total statewide flux of 1.74 ± 0.44 Tg CH 4 ( for May-Oct.). Contemporary global-scale process models only attribute an average of 3% of the total flux to this region. This mismatch occurs for two reasons: process models likely underestimate wetland area in regions without visible surface water, and these models prematurely shut down CH 4 fluxes at soil temperatures near 0°C. As a consequence, wetlands covered by vegetation and wetlands with persistently cold soils could be larger contributors to natural CH 4 fluxes than in process estimates. Lastly, we find that the seasonality of CH 4 fluxes varied during 2012-2014, but that total emissions did not differ significantly among years, despite substantial differences in soil temperature and precipitation; year-to-year variability in these environmental conditions did not

Global, Regional, and National Estimates of Rotavirus Mortality in Children <5 Years of Age, 2000-2013.

PubMed

Tate, Jacqueline E; Burton, Anthony H; Boschi-Pinto, Cynthia; Parashar, Umesh D

2016-05-01

Rotavirus vaccine is recommended for routine use in all countries globally. To facilitate decision making on rotavirus vaccine adoption by countries, help donors prioritize investments in health interventions, and monitor vaccine impact, we estimated rotavirus mortality for children <5 years of age from 2000 to 2013. We searched PubMed using the keyword "rotavirus" to identify studies that met each of the following criteria: data collection midpoint in year 1998 or later, study period of a 12-month increment, and detection of rotavirus infection by enzyme immunoassay in at least 100 children <5 years of age who were hospitalized with diarrhea and systematically enrolled through active surveillance. We also included data from countries that participated in the World Health Organization (WHO)-coordinated rotavirus surveillance network between 2008 and 2013 that met these criteria. To predict the proportion of diarrhea due to rotavirus, we constructed a multiple linear regression model. To determine the number of rotavirus deaths in children <5 years of age from 2000 to 2013, we multiplied annual, country-specific estimates of the proportion of diarrhea due to rotavirus from the regression model by the annual number of WHO-estimated child deaths caused by diarrhea in each country. Globally, we estimated that the number of rotavirus deaths in children <5 years of age declined from 528 000 (range, 465 000-591 000) in 2000 to 215 000 (range, 197 000-233 000) in 2013. The predicted annual rotavirus detection rate from these studies declined slightly over time from 42.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 37.4%-47.5%) in 2000 to 37.3% (95% CI, 34.2%-40.5%) in 2013 globally. In 2013, an estimated 47 100 rotavirus deaths occurred in India, 22% of all rotavirus deaths that occurred globally. Four countries (India, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Democratic Republic of Congo) accounted for approximately half (49%) of all estimated rotavirus deaths in 2013. While rotavirus vaccine had been

Estimation of median growth curves for children up two years old based on biresponse local linear estimator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chamidah, Nur; Rifada, Marisa

2016-03-01

There is significant of the coeficient correlation between weight and height of the children. Therefore, the simultaneous model estimation is better than partial single response approach. In this study we investigate the pattern of sex difference in growth curve of children from birth up to two years of age in Surabaya, Indonesia based on biresponse model. The data was collected in a longitudinal representative sample of the Surabaya population of healthy children that consists of two response variables i.e. weight (kg) and height (cm). While a predictor variable is age (month). Based on generalized cross validation criterion, the modeling result based on biresponse model by using local linear estimator for boy and girl growth curve gives optimal bandwidth i.e 1.41 and 1.56 and the determination coefficient (R2) i.e. 99.99% and 99.98%,.respectively. Both boy and girl curves satisfy the goodness of fit criterion i.e..the determination coefficient tends to one. Also, there is difference pattern of growth curve between boy and girl. The boy median growth curves is higher than those of girl curve.

The Health Belief Model: A Qualitative Study to Understand High-risk Sexual Behavior in Chinese Men Who Have Sex With Men.

PubMed

Li, Xianhong; Lei, Yunxiao; Wang, Honghong; He, Guoping; Williams, Ann Bartley

2016-01-01

The Health Belief Model (HBM) has been widely used to explain rationales for health risk-taking behaviors. Our qualitative study explored the applicability of the HBM to understand high-risk sexual behavior in Chinese men who have sex with men (MSM) and to elaborate each component of the model. HIV knowledge and perception of HIV prevalence contributed to perceived susceptibility. An attitude of treatment optimism versus hard life in reality affected perceived severity. Perceived barriers included discomfort using condoms and condom availability. Perceived benefits included prevention of HIV and other sexually transmitted illnesses. Sociocultural cues for Chinese MSM were elaborated according to each component. The results demonstrated that the HBM could be applied to Chinese MSM. When used with this group, it provided information to help develop a population- and disease-specific HBM scale. Results of our study also suggested behavioral interventions that could be used with Chinese MSM to increase condom use. Copyright © 2016 Association of Nurses in AIDS Care. All rights reserved.

Exposure to Theory-Driven Text Messages is Associated with HIV Risk Reduction Among Methamphetamine-Using Men Who have Sex with Men.

PubMed

Reback, Cathy J; Fletcher, Jesse B; Shoptaw, Steven; Mansergh, Gordon

2015-06-01

Fifty-two non-treatment-seeking methamphetamine-using men who have sex with men were enrolled in Project Tech Support, an open-label pilot study to evaluate whether exposure to theory-based [social support theory (SST), social cognitive theory (SCT), and health belief model (HBM)] text messages could promote reductions in HIV sexual risk behaviors and/or methamphetamine use. Multivariable analyses revealed that increased relative exposure to HBM or SCT (vs. SST) text messages was associated with significant reductions in the number of HIV serodiscordant unprotected (i.e., without a condom) anal sex partners, engagement in sex for money and/or drugs, and frequency of recent methamphetamine use; additionally, increased relative exposure to HBM (vs. SCT or SST) messages was uniquely associated with reductions in the overall number of non-primary anal sex partners (all p ≤ 0.05, two-tailed). Pilot data demonstrated that text messages based on the principles of HBM and SCT reduced sentinel HIV risk and drug use behaviors in active methamphetamine users.

Predicting human papillomavirus vaccine uptake in young adult women: Comparing the Health Belief Model and Theory of Planned Behavior

PubMed Central

Gerend, Mary A.; Shepherd, Janet E.

2012-01-01

Background Although theories of health behavior have guided thousands of studies, relatively few studies have compared these theories against one another. Purpose The purpose of the current study was to compare two classic theories of health behavior—the Health Belief Model (HBM) and the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB)—in their prediction of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination. Methods After watching a gain-framed, loss-framed, or control video, women (N=739) ages 18–26 completed a survey assessing HBM and TPB constructs. HPV vaccine uptake was assessed ten months later. Results Although the message framing intervention had no effect on vaccine uptake, support was observed for both the TPB and HBM. Nevertheless, the TPB consistently outperformed the HBM. Key predictors of uptake included subjective norms, self-efficacy, and vaccine cost. Conclusions Despite the observed advantage of the TPB, findings revealed considerable overlap between the two theories and highlighted the importance of proximal versus distal predictors of health behavior. PMID:22547155

A review of Human Biomonitoring studies of trace elements in Pakistan.

PubMed

Waseem, Amir; Arshad, Jahanzaib

2016-11-01

Human biomonitoring (HBM) measures the concentration levels of substances or their metabolites in human body fluids and tissues. HBM of dose and biochemical effect monitoring is an effective way of measuring human exposure to chemical substances. Many countries have conducted HBM studies to develop a data base for many chemicals including trace metals of health concern for their risk assessment and risk management. However, in Pakistan, HBM program on large scale for general population does not exist at present or in the past has been reported. Various individual HBM studies have been reported on the assessment of trace elements (usually heavy metals) from Pakistan; most of them are epidemiological cross sectional surveys. In this current review we tried to develop a data base of HBM studies of trace elements namely arsenic, cadmium, copper, chromium, iron, lead, manganese, nickel, and zinc in biological fluids (blood, urine) and tissues (hair, nails) in general population of Pakistan. Studies from all available sources have been explored, discussed and presented in the form of tables and figures. The results of these studies were critically compared with large scale HBM programs of other countries, (US & European communities etc). It was observed from the present study that the most of the toxic metals in biological fluids/tissues in general population of Pakistan, have higher background values comparatively. For example the mean values of toxic metals like As, Cd, Cr, Ni, and Pb in blood of general population were found as 2.08 μg/L, 4.24 μg/L, 60.5 μg/L, 1.95 μg/L, 198 μg/L respectively. Similarly, the urine mean values of 67.6 μg/L, 3.2 μg/L, 16.4 μg/L, 6.2 μg/L and 86.5 μg/L were observed for As, Cd, Cr, Ni, and Pb respectively. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Identification of exposure to environmental chemicals in children and older adults using human biomonitoring data sorted by age: Results from a literature review.

PubMed

Choi, Judy; Knudsen, Lisbeth E; Mizrak, Seher; Joas, Anke

2017-03-01

Human biomonitoring (HBM) provides the tools for exposure assessment by direct measurements of biological specimens such as blood and urine. HBM can identify new chemical exposures, trends and changes in exposure, establish distribution of exposure among the general population, and identify vulnerable groups and populations with distinct exposures such as children and older adults. The objective of this review is to demonstrate the use of HBM to identify environmental chemicals that might be of concern for children or older adults due to higher body burden. To do so, an extensive literature search was performed, and using a set of defined criteria, ten large-scale, cross-sectional national HBM programs were selected for data review and evaluation. A comparative analysis of the age-stratified data from these programs and other relevant HBM studies indicated twelve chemicals/classes of chemicals with potentially higher body burden in children or older adults. Children appear to have higher body burden of bisphenol A (BPA), some phytoestrogens, perchlorate, and some metabolites of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and benzene. On the other hand, older adults appear to have higher body burden of heavy metals and organochlorine pesticides. For perfluoroalkyl substances, polybrominated diphenyl ethers, parabens, and phthalates, both children and older adults have higher body burden depending on the specific biomarkers analyzed, and this might be due to the exposure period and/or sources from different countries. Published data from the DEMOCOPHES project (a pilot study to harmonize HBM efforts across Europe) also showed elevated exposures to BPA and some phthalate metabolites in children across several European countries. In summary, age-stratified HBM data can provide useful knowledge of identifying environmental chemicals that might be of concern for children and older adults, which, combined with additional efforts to identify potential sources of exposure, could

Missense Mutations in LRP5 Associated with High Bone Mass Protect the Mouse Skeleton from Disuse- and Ovariectomy-Induced Osteopenia.

PubMed

Niziolek, Paul J; Bullock, Whitney; Warman, Matthew L; Robling, Alexander G

2015-01-01

The low density lipoprotein receptor-related protein-5 (LRP5), a co-receptor in the Wnt signaling pathway, modulates bone mass in humans and in mice. Lrp5 knock-out mice have severely impaired responsiveness to mechanical stimulation whereas Lrp5 gain-of-function knock-in and transgenic mice have enhanced responsiveness to mechanical stimulation. Those observations highlight the importance of Lrp5 protein in bone cell mechanotransduction. It is unclear if and how high bone mass-causing (HBM) point mutations in Lrp5 alter the bone-wasting effects of mechanical disuse. To address this issue we explored the skeletal effects of mechanical disuse using two models, tail suspension and Botulinum toxin-induced muscle paralysis, in two different Lrp5 HBM knock-in mouse models. A separate experiment employing estrogen withdrawal-induced bone loss by ovariectomy was also conducted as a control. Both disuse stimuli induced significant bone loss in WT mice, but Lrp5 A214V and G171V were partially or fully protected from the bone loss that normally results from disuse. Trabecular bone parameters among HBM mice were significantly affected by disuse in both models, but these data are consistent with DEXA data showing a failure to continue growing in HBM mice, rather than a loss of pre-existing bone. Ovariectomy in Lrp5 HBM mice resulted in similar protection from catabolism as was observed for the disuse experiments. In conclusion, the Lrp5 HBM alleles offer significant protection from the resorptive effects of disuse and from estrogen withdrawal, and consequently, present a potential mechanism to mimic with pharmaceutical intervention to protect against various bone-wasting stimuli.

Estimated suspended-sediment loads and yields in the French and Brandywine Creek Basins, Chester County, Pennsylvania, water years 2008-09

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sloto, Ronald A.; Olson, Leif E.

2011-01-01

Turbidity and suspended-sediment concentration data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) at four stream stations--French Creek near Phoenixville, West Branch Brandywine Creek near Honey Brook, West Branch Brandywine Creek at Modena, and East Branch Brandywine Creek below Downingtown--in Chester County, Pa. Sedimentation and siltation is the leading cause of stream impairment in Chester County, and these data are critical for quantifying sediment transport. This study was conducted by the USGS in cooperation with the Chester County Water Resources Authority and the Chester County Health Department. Data from optical turbidity sensors deployed at the four stations were recorded at 15- or 30-minute intervals by a data logger and uploaded every 1 to 4 hours to the USGS database. Most of the suspended-sediment samples were collected using automated samplers. The use of optical sensors to continuously monitor turbidity provided an accurate estimate of sediment fluctuations without the collection and analysis costs associated with intensive sampling during storms. Turbidity was used as a surrogate for suspended-sediment concentration (SSC), which is a measure of sedimentation and siltation. Regression models were developed between SSC and turbidity for each of the monitoring stations using SSC data collected from the automated samplers and turbidity data collected at each station. Instantaneous suspended-sediment loads (SSL) were computed from time-series turbidity and discharge data for the 2008 and 2009 water years using the regression equations. The instantaneous computations of SSL were summed to provide daily, storm, and water year annual loads. The annual SSL contributed from each basin was divided by the upstream drainage area to estimate the annual sediment yield. For all four basins, storms provided more than 96 percent of the annual SSL. In each basin, four storms generally provided over half the annual SSL each water year. Stormflows with the

Between-year breeding dispersal by White-headed Woodpeckers: A caution about using color bands to estimate survival

Treesearch

Teresa J Lorenz

2016-01-01

Between-year breeding dispersal has not been previously documented in White-headed Woodpeckers (Picoides albolarvatus). Therefore, resightings of color-banded adults on previous years’ breeding territories have been considered a means of estimating annual adult survival. From 2013 to 2015, I observed 2 cases of between-year breeding dispersal by...

76 FR 21750 - State Median Income Estimate for a Four-Person Family: Notice of the Federal Fiscal Year (FFY...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-04-18

... Income Estimate for a Four-Person Family: Notice of the Federal Fiscal Year (FFY) 2012 State Median Income Estimates for Use Under the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP) AGENCY.... ACTION: Notice of State median income estimates for FFY 2012. SUMMARY: This notice announces to LIHEAP...

Health Belief Factors and Dispositional Optimism as Predictors of STD and HIV Preventive Behavior

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zak-Place, Jennifer; Stern, Marilyn

2004-01-01

Identifying factors predictive of youth's engaging in preventive behaviors related to sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) and HIV remains a prominent public health concern. The utility of the Health Belief Model (HBM) continues to be suggested in identifying preventive behaviors. This study sought to examine the full HBM, including self-efficacy,…

The estimated six-year mercury dry deposition across North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhang, Leiming; Wu, Zhiyong; Cheng, Irene; Wright, L. Paige; Olson, Mark L.; Gay, David A.; Risch, Martin R.; Brooks, Steven; Castro, Mark S.; Conley, Gary D.; Edgerton, Eric S.; Holsen, Thomas M.; Luke, Winston; Tordon, Robert; Weiss-Penzias, Peter

2016-01-01

Dry deposition of atmospheric mercury (Hg) to various land covers surrounding 24 sites in North America was estimated for the years 2009 to 2014. Depending on location, multiyear mean annual Hg dry deposition was estimated to range from 5.1 to 23.8 μg m–2 yr–1 to forested canopies, 2.6 to 20.8 μg m–2 yr–1 to nonforest vegetated canopies, 2.4 to 11.2 μg m–2 yr–1 to urban and built up land covers, and 1.0 to 3.2 μg m–2 yr–1 to water surfaces. In the rural or remote environment in North America, annual Hg dry deposition to vegetated surfaces is dominated by leaf uptake of gaseous elemental mercury (GEM), contrary to what was commonly assumed in earlier studies which frequently omitted GEM dry deposition as an important process. Dry deposition exceeded wet deposition by a large margin in all of the seasons except in the summer at the majority of the sites. GEM dry deposition over vegetated surfaces will not decrease at the same pace, and sometimes may even increase with decreasing anthropogenic emissions, suggesting that Hg emission reductions should be a long-term policy sustained by global cooperation.

Application of the Health Belief Model to U.S. Magazine Text and Image Coverage of Skin Cancer and Recreational Tanning (2000-2012).

PubMed

McWhirter, Jennifer E; Hoffman-Goetz, Laurie

2016-01-01

The health belief model (HBM) has been widely used to inform health education, social marketing, and health communication campaigns. Although the HBM can explain and predict an individual's willingness to engage in positive health behaviors, its application to, and penetration of the underlying constructs into, mass media content has not been well characterized. We examined 574 articles and 905 images about skin cancer and tanning risks, behaviors, and screening from 20 U.S. women's and men's magazines (2000-2012) for the presence of HBM constructs: perceived susceptibility, perceived severity, perceived benefits, perceived barriers, self-efficacy, and cues to action. Susceptibility (48.1%) and severity (60.3%) information was common in text. Perceived benefits (36.4%) and barriers (41.5%) to prevention of skin cancer were fairly equally mentioned in articles. Self-efficacy (48.4%) focused on sunscreen use. There was little emphasis on HBM constructs related to early detection. Few explicit cues to action about skin cancer appeared in text (12.0%) or images (0.1%). HBM constructs were present to a significantly greater extent in text versus images (e.g., severity, 60.3% vs. 11.3%, respectively, χ(2) = 399.51, p < .0001; benefits prevention, 36.4% vs. 8.0%, respectively, χ(2) = 184.80, p < .0001), suggesting that readers are not visually messaged in ways that would effectively promote skin cancer prevention and early detection behaviors.

Budget estimates: Fiscal year 1994. Volume 3: Research and program management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1994-01-01

The research and program management (R&PM) appropriation provides the salaries, other personnel and related costs, and travel support for NASA's civil service workforce. This FY 1994 budget funds costs associated with 23,623 full-time equivalent (FTE) work years. Budget estimates are provided for all NASA centers by categories such as space station and new technology investments, space flight programs, space science, life and microgravity sciences, advanced concepts and technology, center management and operations support, launch services, mission to planet earth, tracking and data programs, aeronautical research and technology, and safety, reliability, and quality assurance.

Advancing Data assimilation for Baltic Monitoring and Forecasting Center: implementation and evaluation of HBP-PDAF system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korabel, Vasily; She, Jun; Huess, Vibeke; Woge Nielsen, Jacob; Murawsky, Jens; Nerger, Lars

2017-04-01

The potential of an efficient data assimilation (DA) scheme to improve model forecast skill was successfully demonstrated by many operational centres around the world. The Baltic-North Sea region is one of the most heavily monitored seas. Ferryboxes, buoys, ADCP moorings, shallow water Argo floats, and research vessels are providing more and more near-real time observations. Coastal altimetry has now providing increasing amount of high resolution sea level observations, which will be significantly expanded by the launch of SWOT satellite in next years. This will turn operational DA into a valuable tool for improving forecast quality in the region. This motivated us to focus on advancing DA for the Baltic Monitoring and Forecasting Centre (BAL MFC) in order to create a common framework for operational data assimilation in the Baltic Sea. We have implemented HBM-PDAF system based on the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (PDAF), a highly versatile and optimised parallel suit with a choice of sequential schemes originally developed at AWI, and a hydrodynamic HIROMB-BOOS Model (HBM). At initial phase, only the satellite Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Level 3 data has been assimilated. Several related aspects are discussed, including improvements of the forecast quality for both surface and subsurface fields, the estimation of ensemble-based forecast error covariance, as well as possibilities of assimilating new types of observations, such as in-situ salinity and temperature profiles, coastal altimetry, and ice concentration.

A new estimate of average dipole field strength for the last five million years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cromwell, G.; Tauxe, L.; Halldorsson, S. A.

2013-12-01

The Earth's ancient magnetic field can be approximated by a geocentric axial dipole (GAD) where the average field intensity is twice as strong at the poles than at the equator. The present day geomagnetic field, and some global paleointensity datasets, support the GAD hypothesis with a virtual axial dipole moment (VADM) of about 80 ZAm2. Significant departures from GAD for 0-5 Ma are found in Antarctica and Iceland where paleointensity experiments on massive flows (Antarctica) (1) and volcanic glasses (Iceland) produce average VADM estimates of 41.4 ZAm2 and 59.5 ZAm2, respectively. These combined intensities are much closer to a lower estimate for long-term dipole field strength, 50 ZAm2 (2), and some other estimates of average VADM based on paleointensities strictly from volcanic glasses. Proposed explanations for the observed non-GAD behavior, from otherwise high-quality paleointensity results, include incomplete temporal sampling, effects from the tangent cylinder, and hemispheric asymmetry. Differences in estimates of average magnetic field strength likely arise from inconsistent selection protocols and experiment methodologies. We address these possible biases and estimate the average dipole field strength for the last five million years by compiling measurement level data of IZZI-modified paleointensity experiments from lava flows around the globe (including new results from Iceland and the HSDP-2 Hawaii drill core). We use the Thellier Gui paleointensity interpreter (3) in order to apply objective criteria to all specimens, ensuring consistency between sites. Specimen level selection criteria are determined from a recent paleointensity investigation of modern Hawaiian lava flows where the expected magnetic field strength was accurately recovered when following certain selection parameters. Our new estimate of average dipole field strength for the last five million years incorporates multiple paleointensity studies on lava flows with diverse global and

Acute lung injury after tracheal instillation of acidified soya-based or Enfalac formula or human breast milk in rabbits.

PubMed

Chin, C; Lerman, J; Endo, J

1999-03-01

The aim of this study was to compare the severity of the acute lung injury after tracheal instillation of acidified soya-based or Enfalac infant formula, or human breast milk (HBM) in anesthetized rabbits. Alveolar-arterial oxygen tension gradient (A-aDO2) and dynamic compliance were measured before (baseline) and hourly for four hours after tracheal instillation of 0.8 ml x kg(-1) soya-based or Enfalac infant formula or HBM (all acidified to pH 1.8 with hydrochloric acid) or no fluid (control) in 24 anesthetized and tracheotomized adult rabbits. The A-aDO2, the difference between alveolar and arterial oxygen tensions, was corrected for barometric pressure and carbon dioxide tension. Dynamic compliance was the ratio of the expired tidal volume to the peak inspiratory airway pressure, normalized to body weight. Baseline A-aDO2 and dynamic compliance were similar among the four groups. In the control rabbits, A-aDO2 remained unchanged throughout the four hours, whereas mean A-aDO2 increased 180 mm Hg in the soya-based group (P < 0.0025) and 350 and 275 mm Hg in the Enfalac and HBM groups respectively (P < 0.0002). The order of the A-aDO2 post-instillation was Enfalac approximately/= HBM > soya > control (P < 0.0002). Dynamic compliance decreased 10-12% in the control rabbits during the four post-instillation measurements compared with baseline (P < 0.033), decreased 20% in the soya-based group (P < 0.0002) and 40-50% in the Enfalac and HBM groups (P < 0.0002). The severity of the acute lung injury after intratracheal instillation of infant feeds in a volume of 0.8 ml x kg(-1) and at pH 1.8 in rabbits depends in part, on the type of feed: Enfalac approximately/= HBM > soya > control.

Effect of a Health Belief Model-based nursing intervention on Chinese patients with moderate to severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Wang, Ying; Zang, Xiao-Ying; Bai, Jinbing; Liu, Su-Yan; Zhao, Yue; Zhang, Qing

2014-05-01

To test the effect of a Health Belief Model-based nursing intervention on healthcare outcomes in Chinese patients with moderate to severe COPD. The Health Belief Model (HBM) has been internationally validated in a variety of chronic conditions. However, nursing intervention based on the HBM is less explored in Chinese patients with COPD. A randomised controlled trial. Enrolled patients were randomly assigned to the intervention and control groups. Patients in the intervention group received a 20- to 30-minute HBM-based nursing intervention every 2 days during the hospitalisation period after disease conditions were stable, with additional follow-ups after discharge. Patients in the control group received routine nursing care. Patients had significantly increased scores of health belief and self-efficacy after receiving the HBM-based nursing intervention. After receiving the 3-month follow-up, patients in the intervention group had significantly higher mean total scores in the Health Belief Scale and the COPD Self-Efficacy Scale, as well as in all the subscales, than those in the control group except the perceived disease seriousness. Results showed that the value of FEV1 /FVC ratio had a significant difference between study groups before and after the intervention. Results also indicated that mean scores of the Dyspnea Scale, 6-minute walking distance and ADL were significantly different between the groups and between the study time-points. Among patients with moderate to severe COPD, nursing intervention based on the HBM can enhance their health belief and self-efficacy towards the disease management, decrease dyspnoea and improve exercise tolerance and ADL. Nurses can use the HBM-based intervention to enhance patients' health belief and self-efficacy towards the management of COPD, and subsequently benefit healthcare outcomes. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Rapid Osteogenic Enhancement of Stem Cells in Human Bone Marrow Using a Glycogen‐Synthease‐Kinase‐3‐Beta Inhibitor Improves Osteogenic Efficacy In Vitro and In Vivo

PubMed Central

Clough, Bret H.; Zeitouni, Suzanne; Krause, Ulf; Chaput, Christopher D.; Cross, Lauren M.; Gaharwar, Akhilesh K.

2018-01-01

Abstract Non‐union defects of bone are a major problem in orthopedics, especially for patients with a low healing capacity. Fixation devices and osteoconductive materials are used to provide a stable environment for osteogenesis and an osteogenic component such as autologous human bone marrow (hBM) is then used, but robust bone formation is contingent on the healing capacity of the patients. A safe and rapid procedure for improvement of the osteoanabolic properties of hBM is, therefore, sought after in the field of orthopedics, especially if it can be performed within the temporal limitations of the surgical procedure, with minimal manipulation, and at point‐of‐care. One way to achieve this goal is to stimulate canonical Wingless (cWnt) signaling in bone marrow‐resident human mesenchymal stem cells (hMSCs), the presumptive precursors of osteoblasts in bone marrow. Herein, we report that the effects of cWnt stimulation can be achieved by transient (1–2 hours) exposure of osteoprogenitors to the GSK3β‐inhibitor (2′Z,3′E)‐6‐bromoindirubin‐3′‐oxime (BIO) at a concentration of 800 nM. Very‐rapid‐exposure‐to‐BIO (VRE‐BIO) on either hMSCs or whole hBM resulted in the long‐term establishment of an osteogenic phenotype associated with accelerated alkaline phosphatase activity and enhanced transcription of the master regulator of osteogenesis, Runx2. When VRE‐BIO treated hBM was tested in a rat spinal fusion model, VRE‐BIO caused the formation of a denser, stiffer, fusion mass as compared with vehicle treated hBM. Collectively, these data indicate that the VRE‐BIO procedure may represent a rapid, safe, and point‐of‐care strategy for the osteogenic enhancement of autologous hBM for use in clinical orthopedic procedures. stem cells translational medicine 2018;7:342–353 PMID:29405665

New estimates of the CMB angular power spectra from the WMAP 5 year low-resolution data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruppuso, A.; de Rosa, A.; Cabella, P.; Paci, F.; Finelli, F.; Natoli, P.; de Gasperis, G.; Mandolesi, N.

2009-11-01

A quadratic maximum likelihood (QML) estimator is applied to the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) 5 year low-resolution maps to compute the cosmic microwave background angular power spectra (APS) at large scales for both temperature and polarization. Estimates and error bars for the six APS are provided up to l = 32 and compared, when possible, to those obtained by the WMAP team, without finding any inconsistency. The conditional likelihood slices are also computed for the Cl of all the six power spectra from l = 2 to 10 through a pixel-based likelihood code. Both the codes treat the covariance for (T, Q, U) in a single matrix without employing any approximation. The inputs of both the codes (foreground-reduced maps, related covariances and masks) are provided by the WMAP team. The peaks of the likelihood slices are always consistent with the QML estimates within the error bars; however, an excellent agreement occurs when the QML estimates are used as a fiducial power spectrum instead of the best-fitting theoretical power spectrum. By the full computation of the conditional likelihood on the estimated spectra, the value of the temperature quadrupole CTTl=2 is found to be less than 2σ away from the WMAP 5 year Λ cold dark matter best-fitting value. The BB spectrum is found to be well consistent with zero, and upper limits on the B modes are provided. The parity odd signals TB and EB are found to be consistent with zero.

Comparison of age estimation between 15-25 years using a modified form of Demirjian’s ten stage method and two teeth regression formula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amiroh; Priaminiarti, M.; Syahraini, S. I.

2017-08-01

Age estimation of individuals, both dead and living, is important for victim identification and legal certainty. The Demirjian method uses the third molar for age estimation of individuals above 15 years old. The aim is to compare age estimation between 15-25 years using two Demirjian methods. Development stage of third molars in panoramic radiographs of 50 male and female samples were assessed by two observers using Demirjian’s ten stages and two teeth regression formula. Reliability was calculated using Cohen’s kappa coefficient and the significance of the observations was obtained from Wilcoxon tests. Deviations of age estimation were calculated using various methods. The deviation of age estimation with the two teeth regression formula was ±1.090 years; with ten stages, it was ±1.191 years. The deviation of age estimation using the two teeth regression formula was less than with the ten stages method. The age estimations using the two teeth regression formula or the ten stages method are significantly different until the age of 25, but they can be applied up to the age of 22.

The health belief model and number of peers with internet addiction as inter-related factors of Internet addiction among secondary school students in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Wang, Yanhong; Wu, Anise M S; Lau, Joseph T F

2016-03-16

Students are vulnerable to Internet addiction (IA). Influences of cognitions based on the Health Belief Model (HBM) and perceived number of peers with IA (PNPIA) affecting students' IA, and mediating effects involved, have not been investigated. This cross-sectional study surveyed 9518 Hong Kong Chinese secondary school students in the school setting. In this self-reported study, the majority (82.6%) reported that they had peers with IA. Based on the Chinese Internet Addiction Scale (cut-off =63/64), the prevalence of IA was 16.0% (males: 17.6%; females: 14.0%). Among the non-IA cases, 7.6% (males: 8.7%; females: 6.3%) perceived a chance of developing IA in the next 12 months. Concurring with the HBM, adjusted logistic analysis showed that the Perceived Social Benefits of Internet Use Scale (males: Adjusted odds ratio (ORa) = 1.19; females: ORa = 1.23), Perceived Barriers for Reducing Internet Use Scale (males: ORa = 1.26; females: ORa = 1.36), and Perceived Self-efficacy for Reducing Internet Use Scale (males: ORa = 0.66; females: ORa = 0.56) were significantly associated with IA. Similarly, PNPIA was significantly associated with IA ('quite a number': males: ORa = 2.85; females: ORa = 4.35; 'a large number': males: ORa = 3.90; females: ORa = 9.09). Controlling for these three constructs, PNPIA remained significant but the strength of association diminished ('quite a number': males: multivariate odds ratio (ORm) = 2.07; females: ORm = 2.44; 'a large number': males: ORm = 2.39; females: ORm = 3.56). Hence, the association between PNPIA and IA was partially mediated (explained) by the three HBM constructs. Interventions preventing IA should change these constructs. In sum, prevalence of IA was relatively high and was associated with some HBM constructs and PNPIA, and PNPIA also partially mediated associations between HBM constructs and IA. Huge challenges are expected, as social relationships and an imbalance of cost-benefit for reducing Internet use are

Technique for estimating the 2- to 500-year flood discharges on unregulated streams in rural Missouri

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alexander, Terry W.; Wilson, Gary L.

1995-01-01

A generalized least-squares regression technique was used to relate the 2- to 500-year flood discharges from 278 selected streamflow-gaging stations to statistically significant basin characteristics. The regression relations (estimating equations) were defined for three hydrologic regions (I, II, and III) in rural Missouri. Ordinary least-squares regression analyses indicate that drainage area (Regions I, II, and III) and main-channel slope (Regions I and II) are the only basin characteristics needed for computing the 2- to 500-year design-flood discharges at gaged or ungaged stream locations. The resulting generalized least-squares regression equations provide a technique for estimating the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year flood discharges on unregulated streams in rural Missouri. The regression equations for Regions I and II were developed from stream-flow-gaging stations with drainage areas ranging from 0.13 to 11,500 square miles and 0.13 to 14,000 square miles, and main-channel slopes ranging from 1.35 to 150 feet per mile and 1.20 to 279 feet per mile. The regression equations for Region III were developed from streamflow-gaging stations with drainage areas ranging from 0.48 to 1,040 square miles. Standard errors of estimate for the generalized least-squares regression equations in Regions I, II, and m ranged from 30 to 49 percent.

Foundational workplace safety and health competencies for the emerging workforce.

PubMed

Okun, Andrea H; Guerin, Rebecca J; Schulte, Paul A

2016-12-01

Young workers (aged 15-24) suffer disproportionately from workplace injuries, with a nonfatal injury rate estimated to be two times higher than among workers age 25 or over. These workers make up approximately 9% of the U.S. workforce and studies have shown that nearly 80% of high school students work at some point during high school. Although young worker injuries are a pressing public health problem, the critical knowledge and skills needed to prepare youth for safe and healthy work are missing from most frameworks used to prepare the emerging U.S. workforce. A framework of foundational workplace safety and health knowledge and skills (the NIOSH 8 Core Competencies) was developed based on the Health Belief Model (HBM). The proposed NIOSH Core Competencies utilize the HBM to provide a framework for foundational workplace safety and health knowledge and skills. An examination of how these competencies and the HBM apply to actions that workers take to protect themselves is provided. The social and physical environments that influence these actions are also discussed. The NIOSH 8 Core Competencies, grounded in one of the most widely used health behavior theories, fill a critical gap in preparing the emerging U.S. workforce to be cognizant of workplace risks. Integration of the NIOSH 8 Core Competencies into school curricula is one way to ensure that every young person has the foundational workplace safety and health knowledge and skills to participate in, and benefit from, safe and healthy work. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Foundational workplace safety and health competencies for the emerging workforce☆

PubMed Central

Okun, Andrea H.; Guerin, Rebecca J.; Schulte, Paul A.

2016-01-01

Introduction Young workers (aged 15–24) suffer disproportionately from workplace injuries, with a nonfatal injury rate estimated to be two times higher than among workers age 25 or over. These workers make up approximately 9% of the U.S. workforce and studies have shown that nearly 80% of high school students work at some point during high school. Although young worker injuries are a pressing public health problem, the critical knowledge and skills needed to prepare youth for safe and healthy work are missing from most frameworks used to prepare the emerging U.S. workforce. Methods A framework of foundational workplace safety and health knowledge and skills (the NIOSH 8 Core Competencies)was developed based on the Health Belief Model (HBM). Results The proposed NIOSH Core Competencies utilize the HBM to provide a framework for foundational workplace safety and health knowledge and skills. An examination of how these competencies and the HBM apply to actions that workers take to protect themselves is provided. The social and physical environments that influence these actions are also discussed. Conclusions The NIOSH 8 Core Competencies, grounded in one of the most widely used health behavior theories, fill a critical gap in preparing the emerging U.S. workforce to be cognizant of workplace risks. Practical applications Integration of the NIOSH 8 Core Competencies into school curricula is one way to ensure that every young person has the foundational workplace safety and health knowledge and skills to participate in, and benefit from, safe and healthy work. National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. PMID:27846998

A multivariate method for estimating mortality rates among children under 5 years from health and social indicators in Iraq.

PubMed

Garfield, R; Leu, C S

2000-06-01

Many reports on Iraq suggest that a rise in rates of death and disease have occurred since the Gulf War of January/February 1991 and the economic sanctions that followed it. Four preliminary models, based on unadjusted projections, were developed. A logistic regression model was then developed on the basis of six social variables in Iraq and comparable information from countries in the State of the World's Children report. Missing data were estimated for this model by a multiple imputation procedure. The final model depends on three socio-medical indicators: adult literacy, nutritional stunting of children under 5 years, and access to piped water. The model successfully predicted both the mortality rate in 1990, under stable conditions, and in 1991, following the Gulf War. For 1996, after 5 years of sanctions and prior to receipt of humanitarian food via the oil for food programme, this model shows mortality among children under 5 to have reached an estimated 87 per 1000, a rate last experienced more than 30 years ago. Accurate and timely estimates of mortality levels in developing countries are costly and require considerable methodological expertise. A rapid estimation technique like the one developed here may be a useful tool for quick and efficient estimation of mortality rates among under 5 year olds in countries where good mortality data are not routinely available. This is especially true for countries with complex humanitarian emergencies where information on mortality changes can guide interventions and the social stability to use standard demographic methods does not exist.

Conceptual framework for a Danish human biomonitoring program

PubMed Central

Thomsen, Marianne; Knudsen, Lisbeth E; Vorkamp, Katrin; Frederiksen, Marie; Bach, Hanne; Bonefeld-Jorgensen, Eva Cecilie; Rastogi, Suresch; Fauser, Patrik; Krongaard, Teddy; Sorensen, Peter Borgen

2008-01-01

The aim of this paper is to present the conceptual framework for a Danish human biomonitoring (HBM) program. The EU and national science-policy interface, that is fundamental for a realization of the national and European environment and human health strategies, is discussed, including the need for a structured and integrated environmental and human health surveillance program at national level. In Denmark, the initiative to implement such activities has been taken. The proposed framework of the Danish monitoring program constitutes four scientific expert groups, i.e. i. Prioritization of the strategy for the monitoring program, ii. Collection of human samples, iii. Analysis and data management and iv. Dissemination of results produced within the program. This paper presents the overall framework for data requirements and information flow in the integrated environment and health surveillance program. The added value of an HBM program, and in this respect the objectives of national and European HBM programs supporting environmental health integrated policy-decisions and human health targeted policies, are discussed. In Denmark environmental monitoring has been prioritized by extensive surveillance systems of pollution in oceans, lakes and soil as well as ground and drinking water. Human biomonitoring has only taken place in research programs and few incidences of e.g. lead contamination. However an arctic program for HBM has been in force for decades and from the preparations of the EU-pilot project on HBM increasing political interest in a Danish program has developed. PMID:18541069

Age- and gender-specific estimates of cumulative CT dose over 5 years using real radiation dose tracking data in children.

PubMed

Lee, Eunsol; Goo, Hyun Woo; Lee, Jae-Yeong

2015-08-01

It is necessary to develop a mechanism to estimate and analyze cumulative radiation risks from multiple CT exams in various clinical scenarios in children. To identify major contributors to high cumulative CT dose estimates using actual dose-length product values collected for 5 years in children. Between August 2006 and July 2011 we reviewed 26,937 CT exams in 13,803 children. Among them, we included 931 children (median age 3.5 years, age range 0 days-15 years; M:F = 533:398) who had 5,339 CT exams. Each child underwent at least three CT scans and had accessible radiation dose reports. Dose-length product values were automatically extracted from DICOM files and we used recently updated conversion factors for age, gender, anatomical region and tube voltage to estimate CT radiation dose. We tracked the calculated CT dose estimates to obtain a 5-year cumulative value for each child. The study population was divided into three groups according to the cumulative CT dose estimates: high, ≥30 mSv; moderate, 10-30 mSv; and low, <10 mSv. We reviewed clinical data and CT protocols to identify major contributors to high and moderate cumulative CT dose estimates. Median cumulative CT dose estimate was 5.4 mSv (range 0.5-71.1 mSv), and median number of CT scans was 4 (range 3-36). High cumulative CT dose estimates were most common in children with malignant tumors (57.9%, 11/19). High frequency of CT scans was attributed to high cumulative CT dose estimates in children with ventriculoperitoneal shunt (35 in 1 child) and malignant tumors (range 18-49). Moreover, high-dose CT protocols, such as multiphase abdomen CT (median 4.7 mSv) contributed to high cumulative CT dose estimates even in children with a low number of CT scans. Disease group, number of CT scans, and high-dose CT protocols are major contributors to higher cumulative CT dose estimates in children.

Estimating Body Composition in Adolescent Sprint Athletes: Comparison of Different Methods in a 3 Years Longitudinal Design

PubMed Central

Aerenhouts, Dirk

2015-01-01

A recommended field method to assess body composition in adolescent sprint athletes is currently lacking. Existing methods developed for non-athletic adolescents were not longitudinally validated and do not take maturation status into account. This longitudinal study compared two field methods, i.e., a Bio Impedance Analysis (BIA) and a skinfold based equation, with underwater densitometry to track body fat percentage relative to years from age at peak height velocity in adolescent sprint athletes. In this study, adolescent sprint athletes (34 girls, 35 boys) were measured every 6 months during 3 years (age at start = 14.8 ± 1.5yrs in girls and 14.7 ± 1.9yrs in boys). Body fat percentage was estimated in 3 different ways: 1) using BIA with the TANITA TBF 410; 2) using a skinfold based equation; 3) using underwater densitometry which was considered as the reference method. Height for age since birth was used to estimate age at peak height velocity. Cross-sectional analyses were performed using repeated measures ANOVA and Pearson correlations between measurement methods at each occasion. Data were analyzed longitudinally using a multilevel cross-classified model with the PROC Mixed procedure. In boys, compared to underwater densitometry, the skinfold based formula revealed comparable values for body fatness during the study period whereas BIA showed a different pattern leading to an overestimation of body fatness starting from 4 years after age at peak height velocity. In girls, both the skinfold based formula and BIA overestimated body fatness across the whole range of years from peak height velocity. The skinfold based method appears to give an acceptable estimation of body composition during growth as compared to underwater densitometry in male adolescent sprinters. In girls, caution is warranted when interpreting estimations of body fatness by both BIA and a skinfold based formula since both methods tend to give an overestimation. PMID:26317426

Risk Estimation and Sexual Behaviour: A Longitudinal Study of 16- 21-year olds.

PubMed

Breakwell, G M; Breakwell, G M

1996-01-01

The relationships among risk estimation, impulsivity and patterns of sexual risk-taking in 16-21-year-olds are examined. A sample of 236 males and 340 females completed a postal questionnaire on three occasions at annual intervals. They reported their assessment of their own risk of HIV infection, the risk of HIV infection associated with six types of sexual activity, their likelihood of engaging in each of these activities, and whether they had participated in these activities between the first and second data collections. Impulsivity was indexed using a standard test. The data support the conclusion that strong social representations of sexual risks exist which do not markedly change during late adolescence. These risk estimates predict behavioural expectations, primarily for the riskiest behaviours, and for females (actual participation in vaginal sex); but for males, risk estimates fail to predict behaviour. Evidence here for a rational model of individual decision- making in relation to sexual risk- taking is sparse. Impulsivity was not a good predictor of expected or actual patterns of sexual behaviour, though higher impulsivity was associated with having more sexual partners and, in females, with starting to have sex younger.

Application of the Health Belief Model in a study on parents' intentions to utilize prenatal diagnosis of cleft lip and/or palate.

PubMed

Sagi, M; Shiloh, S; Cohen, T

1992-10-01

Parents of children with cleft lip and/or palate (42 women and 35 men) participated in a study on intentions to use prenatal diagnosis of cleft by ultrasound in subsequent pregnancies. Based on the Health Belief Model (HBM) [Rosenstock, 1974], parents' cognitions on 4 factors were measured by questionnaires: "susceptibility" and "severity perceptions," "benefits" and "barriers" evaluations. Most parents perceived the defect as severe. Over-estimation of recurrence risks was predominant even among parents who had received genetic counseling. Results showed that most parents intend to utilize prenatal diagnosis but do not intend to abort an affected fetus. Subjects' reported reasons represented 3 thematic categories: cognitive (the need to know), emotional, and behavioral. Parents' intentions to diagnose and to terminate were related to the factors predicted by the HBM model. Regression analyses indicated that 38% of the variance in intentions to diagnose and 56% of the variance in intentions to terminate could be explained by the studied variables. The best predictor of both intentions was the perceived benefits of the diagnosis. Implications of these findings for genetic counseling are discussed.

Testicular Self-Examination: A Test of the Health Belief Model and the Theory of Planned Behaviour

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McClenahan, Carol; Shevlin, Mark; Adamson, Gary; Bennett, Cara; O'Neill, Brenda

2007-01-01

The aim of this study was to test the utility and efficiency of the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) and the health belief model (HBM) in predicting testicular self-examination (TSE) behaviour. A questionnaire was administered to an opportunistic sample of 195 undergraduates aged 18-39 years. Structural equation modelling indicated that, on the…

Retrospective Analog Year Analyses Using NASA Satellite Data to Improve USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teng, W. L.; Shannon, H. D.

2011-12-01

The USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) is responsible for monitoring weather and climate impacts on domestic and foreign crop development. One of WAOB's primary goals is to determine the net cumulative effect of weather and climate anomalies on final crop yields. To this end, a broad array of information is consulted, including maps, charts, and time series of recent weather, climate, and crop observations; numerical output from weather and crop models; and reports from the press, USDA attachés, and foreign governments. The resulting agricultural weather assessments are published in the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin, to keep farmers, policy makers, and commercial agricultural interests informed of weather and climate impacts on agriculture. Because both the amount and timing of precipitation significantly impact crop yields, WAOB often uses precipitation time series to identify growing seasons with similar weather patterns and help estimate crop yields for the current growing season, based on observed yields in analog years. Although, historically, these analog years are identified through visual inspection, the qualitative nature of this methodology sometimes precludes the definitive identification of the best analog year. One goal of this study is to introduce a more rigorous, statistical approach for identifying analog years. This approach is based on a modified coefficient of determination, termed the analog index (AI). The derivation of AI will be described. Another goal of this study is to compare the performance of AI for time series derived from surface-based observations vs. satellite-based measurements (NASA TRMM and other data). Five study areas and six growing seasons of data were analyzed (2003-2007 as potential analog years and 2008 as the target year). Results thus far show that, for all five areas, crop yield estimates derived from satellite-based precipitation data are closer to measured yields than are estimates derived from surface

Development of regression equations to revise estimates of historical streamflows for the St. Croix River at Stillwater, Minnesota (water years 1910-2011), and Prescott, Wisconsin (water years 1910-2007)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ziegeweid, Jeffrey R.; Magdalene, Suzanne

2015-01-01

The new regression equations were used to calculate revised estimates of historical streamflows for Stillwater and Prescott starting in 1910 and ending when index-velocity streamgages were installed. Monthly, annual, 30-year, and period of record statistics were examined between previous and revised estimates of historical streamflows. The abilities of the new regression equations to estimate historical streamflows were evaluated by using percent differences to compare new estimates of historical daily streamflows to discrete streamflow measurements made at Stillwater and Prescott before the installation of index-velocity streamgages. Although less variability was observed between estimated and measured streamflows at Stillwater compared to Prescott, the percent difference data indicated that the new estimates closely approximated measured streamflows at both locations.

Challenges in the Estimation of the Annual Risk of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection in Children Aged Less Than 5 Years.

PubMed

Khan, P Y; Glynn, Judith R; Mzembe, T; Mulawa, D; Chiumya, R; Crampin, Amelia C; Kranzer, Katharina; Fielding, Katherine L

2017-10-15

Accurate estimates of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection in young children provide a critical indicator of ongoing community transmission of M. tuberculosis. Cross-reactions due to infection with environmental mycobacteria and/or bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination compromise the estimates derived from population-level tuberculin skin-test surveys using traditional cutoff methods. Newer statistical approaches are prone to failure of model convergence, especially in settings where the prevalence of M. tuberculosis infection is low and environmental sensitization is high. We conducted a tuberculin skin-test survey in 5,119 preschool children in the general population and among household contacts of tuberculosis cases in 2012-2014 in a district in northern Malawi where sensitization to environmental mycobacteria is common and almost all children are BCG-vaccinated. We compared different proposed methods of estimating M. tuberculosis prevalence, including a method described by Rust and Thomas more than 40 years ago. With the different methods, estimated prevalence in the general population was 0.7%-11.5% at ages <2 years and 0.8%-3.3% at ages 2-4 years. The Rust and Thomas method was the only method to give a lower estimate in the younger age group (0.7% vs 0.8%), suggesting that it was the only method that adjusted appropriately for the marked effect of BCG-attributable induration in the very young. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

Storm drains are sources of human fecal pollution during dry weather in three urban southern California watersheds.

PubMed

Sercu, Bram; Van De Werfhorst, Laurie C; Murray, Jill; Holden, Patricia A

2009-01-15

Coastal urbanized areas in Southern California experience frequent beach water quality warnings in summer due to high concentrations of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB). Remediation can be difficult, as sources are often unknown. During two summers, we sampled three urbanized watersheds in Santa Barbara, CA at sites with historically high FIB concentrations to determine if human fecal matter was influencing water quality. By quantification of a human-specific Bacteroides marker (HBM), human waste was evidenced throughout both transects, and concentrations were highest in the discharges of several flowing storm drains. The HBM concentrations in storm drain discharges varied by up to 5 orders of magnitude on the same day. While the exact points of entry into the storm drain systems were not definitively determined, further inspection of the drain infrastructure suggested exfiltrating sanitary sewers as possible sources. The HBM and FIB concentrations were not consistently correlated, although the exclusive occurrence of high HBM concentrations with high FIB concentrations warrants the use of FIB analyses for a first tier of sampling. The association of human fecal pollution with dry weather drainage could be a window into a larger problem for other urbanized coastal areas with Mediterranean-type climates.

Estimation of Life-Year Loss and Lifetime Costs for Different Stages of Colon Adenocarcinoma in Taiwan

PubMed Central

Chen, Po-Chuan; Lee, Jenq-Chang; Wang, Jung-Der

2015-01-01

Backgrounds and aims Life-expectancy of colon cancer patients cannot be accurately answered due to the lack of both large datasets and long-term follow-ups, which impedes accurate estimation of lifetime cost to treat colon cancer patients. In this study, we applied a method to estimate life-expectancy of colon cancer patients in Taiwan and calculate the lifetime costs by different stages and age groups. Methods A total of 17,526 cases with pathologically verified colon adenocarcinoma between 2002 and 2009 were extracted from Taiwan Cancer Registry database for analysis. All patients were followed-up until the end of 2011. Life-expectancy, expected-years-of-life-lost and lifetime costs were estimated, using a semi-parametric survival extrapolation method and borrowing information from life tables of vital statistics. Results Patients with more advanced stages of colon cancer were generally younger and less co-morbid with major chronic diseases than those with stages I and II. The LE of stage I was not significantly different from that of the age- and sex-matched general population, whereas those of stages II, III, and IV colon cancer patients after diagnosis were 16.57±0.07, 13.35±0.07, and 4.05±0.05 years, respectively; the corresponding expected-years-of-life-lost were 1.28±0.07, 5.93±0.07 and 16.42±0.06 years, significantly shorter than the general population after accounting for lead time bias. Besides, the lifetime cost of managing stage II colon cancer patients would be US $8,416±1939, 14,334±1,755, and 21,837±1,698, respectively, indicating a big saving for early diagnosis and treatment after stratification for age and sex. Conclusions Treating colon cancer at younger age and earlier stage saves more life-years and healthcare costs. Future studies are indicated to apply these quantitative results into the cost-effectiveness evaluation of screening program for colon cancers. PMID:26207912

Estimating daily global solar radiation by day of the year in Algeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aoun, Nouar; Bouchouicha, Kada

2017-05-01

This study presents six empirical models based on the day-of-the-year number for estimating global solar radiation on a horizontal surface. For this case study, 21 years of experimental data sets for 21 cities over the whole Algerian territory are utilized to develop these models for each city and for all of Algeria. In this study, the territory of Algeria was divided into four different climatic zones, i.e., Arid, Semi-arid, Highlands and Mediterranean. The accuracy of the all-Algeria model was tested for each city and for each climate zone. To evaluate the accuracy of the models, the RMSE, rRMSE, MABE, MAPE, and R, which are the most commonly applied statistical parameters, were utilized. The results show that the six developed models provide excellent predictions for global solar radiation for each city and for all-Algeria. Furthermore, the model showing the greatest accuracy is the sine and cosine wave trigonometric model.

Rapid Osteogenic Enhancement of Stem Cells in Human Bone Marrow Using a Glycogen-Synthease-Kinase-3-Beta Inhibitor Improves Osteogenic Efficacy In Vitro and In Vivo.

PubMed

Clough, Bret H; Zeitouni, Suzanne; Krause, Ulf; Chaput, Christopher D; Cross, Lauren M; Gaharwar, Akhilesh K; Gregory, Carl A

2018-04-01

Non-union defects of bone are a major problem in orthopedics, especially for patients with a low healing capacity. Fixation devices and osteoconductive materials are used to provide a stable environment for osteogenesis and an osteogenic component such as autologous human bone marrow (hBM) is then used, but robust bone formation is contingent on the healing capacity of the patients. A safe and rapid procedure for improvement of the osteoanabolic properties of hBM is, therefore, sought after in the field of orthopedics, especially if it can be performed within the temporal limitations of the surgical procedure, with minimal manipulation, and at point-of-care. One way to achieve this goal is to stimulate canonical Wingless (cWnt) signaling in bone marrow-resident human mesenchymal stem cells (hMSCs), the presumptive precursors of osteoblasts in bone marrow. Herein, we report that the effects of cWnt stimulation can be achieved by transient (1-2 hours) exposure of osteoprogenitors to the GSK3β-inhibitor (2'Z,3'E)-6-bromoindirubin-3'-oxime (BIO) at a concentration of 800 nM. Very-rapid-exposure-to-BIO (VRE-BIO) on either hMSCs or whole hBM resulted in the long-term establishment of an osteogenic phenotype associated with accelerated alkaline phosphatase activity and enhanced transcription of the master regulator of osteogenesis, Runx2. When VRE-BIO treated hBM was tested in a rat spinal fusion model, VRE-BIO caused the formation of a denser, stiffer, fusion mass as compared with vehicle treated hBM. Collectively, these data indicate that the VRE-BIO procedure may represent a rapid, safe, and point-of-care strategy for the osteogenic enhancement of autologous hBM for use in clinical orthopedic procedures. Stem Cells Translational Medicine 2018;7:342-353. © 2018 The Authors Stem Cells Translational Medicine published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of AlphaMed Press.

Neonatal High Bone Mass With First Mutation of the NF-κB Complex: Heterozygous De Novo Missense (p.Asp512Ser) RELA (Rela/p65).

PubMed

Frederiksen, Anja L; Larsen, Martin J; Brusgaard, Klaus; Novack, Deborah V; Knudsen, Peter Juel Thiis; Schrøder, Henrik Daa; Qiu, Weimin; Eckhardt, Christina; McAlister, William H; Kassem, Moustapha; Mumm, Steven; Frost, Morten; Whyte, Michael P

2016-01-01

Heritable disorders that feature high bone mass (HBM) are rare. The etiology is typically a mutation(s) within a gene that regulates the differentiation and function of osteoblasts (OBs) or osteoclasts (OCs). Nevertheless, the molecular basis is unknown for approximately one-fifth of such entities. NF-κB signaling is a key regulator of bone remodeling and acts by enhancing OC survival while impairing OB maturation and function. The NF-κB transcription complex comprises five subunits. In mice, deletion of the p50 and p52 subunits together causes osteopetrosis (OPT). In humans, however, mutations within the genes that encode the NF-κB complex, including the Rela/p65 subunit, have not been reported. We describe a neonate who died suddenly and unexpectedly and was found at postmortem to have HBM documented radiographically and by skeletal histopathology. Serum was not available for study. Radiographic changes resembled malignant OPT, but histopathological investigation showed morphologically normal OCs and evidence of intact bone resorption excluding OPT. Furthermore, mutation analysis was negative for eight genes associated with OPT or HBM. Instead, accelerated bone formation appeared to account for the HBM. Subsequently, trio-based whole exome sequencing revealed a heterozygous de novo missense mutation (c.1534_1535delinsAG, p.Asp512Ser) in exon 11 of RELA encoding Rela/p65. The mutation was then verified using bidirectional Sanger sequencing. Lipopolysaccharide stimulation of patient fibroblasts elicited impaired NF-κB responses compared with healthy control fibroblasts. Five unrelated patients with unexplained HBM did not show a RELA defect. Ours is apparently the first report of a mutation within the NF-κB complex in humans. The missense change is associated with neonatal osteosclerosis from in utero increased OB function rather than failed OC action. These findings demonstrate the importance of the Rela/p65 subunit within the NF-κB pathway for human

Assessing the impact of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) on ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

An enhanced research paradigm is presented to address the spatial and temporal gaps in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) measurements and generate realistic and representative concentration fields for use in epidemiological studies of human exposure to ambient air particulate concentrations. The general approach for research designed to analyze health impacts of exposure to PM2.5 is to use concentration data from the nearest ground-based air quality monitor(s), which typically have missing data on the temporal and spatial scales due to filter sampling schedules and monitor placement, respectively. To circumvent these data gaps, this research project uses a Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM) to generate estimates of PM2.5 in areas with and without air quality monitors by combining PM2.5 concentrations measured by monitors, PM2.5 concentration estimates derived from satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) data, and Community-Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model predictions of PM2.5 concentrations. This methodology represents a substantial step forward in the approach for developing representative PM2.5 concentration datasets to correlate with inpatient hospitalizations and emergency room visits data for asthma and inpatient hospitalizations for myocardial infarction (MI) and heart failure (HF) using case-crossover analysis. There were two key objective of this current study. First was to show that the inputs to the HBM could be expanded to include AOD data in addition t

Psychological models for development of motorcycle helmet use among students in Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumphong, J.; Satiennam, T.; Satiennam, W.; Trinh, Tu Anh

2018-04-01

A helmet can reduce head accident severity. The aim of this research study was to study the intention for helmet use of students who ride motorcycles in Vietnam, by Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). Questionnaires developed by several traffic psychology modules, including the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB), Traffic Locus of Control (T-LOC), and Health Belief Model (HBM), were distributed to students at Ton Thang University and University of Architecture, Ho Chi Minh City. SEM was used to explain helmet use behaviour. The results indicate that TPB, T-LOC and HBM could explain the variance in helmet use behaviour. However, TPB can explain behaviour (helmet use intention) better than T-LOC and HBM. The outcome of this study is useful for the agencies responsible to improve motorcycle safety.

Ten years cardiovascular risk estimation according to Framingham score and non HDL-cholesterol in blood donors.

PubMed

Graffigna, Mabel Nora; Berg, Gabriela; Migliano, Marta; Salgado, Pablo; Soutelo, Jimena; Musso, Carla

2015-01-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is currently the primary cause of morbidity and mortality. (1) Assess the 10 years risk for CVD in Argentinean blood donors, according to Framingham score (updated by ATP III), (2) evaluate the prevalence of the MS, (3) evaluate non HDL-cholesterol level in this population as other risk for CVD. A prospective, epidemiological, transversal study was performed to evaluate 585 volunteer blood donors for two years. Non HDL-C was calculated as total cholesterol minus HDL-C and we evaluated the 10 years risk for CVD according to Framingham score (updated by ATP III). Metabolic syndrome prevalence was estimated according to ATP III and IDF criteria. Non HDL-C was (media±SD) 178.3±48.0 mg/dl in participants with MS and 143.7±39.3 mg/dl without MS (ATPIII) and 160.1±43.6 mg/dl in participants with MS and 139.8±43.1 mg/dl without MS (IDF). Participants with MS presented an OR of 3.1; IC 95% (2-5) of CVD according to de Framingham score. Individuals with MS and elevated non HDL-C are at a higher estimated risk for cardiovascular events in the next 10 years according to the Framingham risk score. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Performance assessment of different day-of-the-year-based models for estimating global solar radiation - Case study: Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassan, Gasser E.; Youssef, M. Elsayed; Ali, Mohamed A.; Mohamed, Zahraa E.; Shehata, Ali I.

2016-11-01

Different models are introduced to predict the daily global solar radiation in different locations but there is no specific model based on the day of the year is proposed for many locations around the world. In this study, more than 20 years of measured data for daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface are used to develop and validate seven models to estimate the daily global solar radiation by day of the year for ten cities around Egypt as a case study. Moreover, the generalization capability for the best models is examined all over the country. The regression analysis is employed to calculate the coefficients of different suggested models. The statistical indicators namely, RMSE, MABE, MAPE, r and R2 are calculated to evaluate the performance of the developed models. Based on the validation with the available data, the results show that the hybrid sine and cosine wave model and 4th order polynomial model have the best performance among other suggested models. Consequently, these two models coupled with suitable coefficients can be used for estimating the daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface for each city, and also for all the locations around the studied region. It is believed that the established models in this work are applicable and significant for quick estimation for the average daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface with higher accuracy. The values of global solar radiation generated by this approach can be utilized in the design and estimation of the performance of different solar applications.

Estimation of primordial spectrum with post-WMAP 3-year data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shafieloo, Arman; Souradeep, Tarun

2008-07-15

In this paper we implement an improved (error-sensitive) Richardson-Lucy deconvolution algorithm on the measured angular power spectrum from the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) 3 year data to determine the primordial power spectrum assuming different points in the cosmological parameter space for a flat {lambda}CDM cosmological model. We also present the preliminary results of the cosmological parameter estimation by assuming a free form of the primordial spectrum, for a reasonably large volume of the parameter space. The recovered spectrum for a considerably large number of the points in the cosmological parameter space has a likelihood far better than a 'bestmore » fit' power law spectrum up to {delta}{chi}{sub eff}{sup 2}{approx_equal}-30. We use discrete wavelet transform (DWT) for smoothing the raw recovered spectrum from the binned data. The results obtained here reconfirm and sharpen the conclusion drawn from our previous analysis of the WMAP 1st year data. A sharp cut off around the horizon scale and a bump after the horizon scale seem to be a common feature for all of these reconstructed primordial spectra. We have shown that although the WMAP 3 year data prefers a lower value of matter density for a power law form of the primordial spectrum, for a free form of the spectrum, we can get a very good likelihood to the data for higher values of matter density. We have also shown that even a flat cold dark matter model, allowing a free form of the primordial spectrum, can give a very high likelihood fit to the data. Theoretical interpretation of the results is open to the cosmology community. However, this work provides strong evidence that the data retains discriminatory power in the cosmological parameter space even when there is full freedom in choosing the primordial spectrum.« less

Determining distinct circuit in complete graphs using permutation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karim, Sharmila; Ibrahim, Haslinda; Darus, Maizon Mohd

2017-11-01

A Half Butterfly Method (HBM) is a method introduced to construct the distinct circuits in complete graphs where used the concept of isomorphism. The Half Butterfly Method was applied in the field of combinatorics such as in listing permutations of n elements. However the method of determining distinct circuit using HBM for n > 4 is become tedious. Thus, in this paper, we present the method of generating distinct circuit using permutation.

Estimating dim light melatonin onset (DLMO) phase in adolescents using summer or school-year sleep/wake schedules.

PubMed

Crowley, Stephanie J; Acebo, Christine; Fallone, Gahan; Carskadon, Mary A

2006-12-01

This analysis examined associations between the salivary dim light melatonin onset (DLMO) phase and self-selected sleep/ wake schedules in groups of children and adolescents during summer vacation and during the school year to determine the degree to which sleep/wake patterns can estimate salivary DLMO phase. Participants slept at home on self-selected schedules for 5 consecutive nights and reported their bedtime and wake-up time via daily telephone messages. Salivary melatonin was sampled in the laboratory on one evening every 30 minutes in dim light (< 50 lux) to determine DLMO phase. Within group bivariate regressions between sleep pattern measures (bedtime, wake-up time, and midsleep time) and DLMO phase were computed. One group, ages 9 to 17 years (mean age = 12.5, SD = 2.3 years, 74 males, 75 females) contributed 149 DLMO phase and sleep/wake pattern measures while on a school year schedule ("school group"). A separate group, ages 9 to 16 years (mean age = 13.1, SD = 1.3 years, 30 males, 29 females) contributed 59 DLMO phase and sleep/wake pattern measures while on a summer schedule ("summer group"). Bedtime, midsleep time, and wake-up time were positively correlated with DLMO phase in both groups. Although all correlation coefficients for the summer group were statistically greater compared to the school group, the regression equations predicted DLMO phase within +/- 1 hour of the measured DLMO phase in approximately 80% for both groups. DLMO phase can be estimated using self-selected sleep/wake patterns during the school year or summer vacation in healthy children and adolescents.

The transtheoretical model, health belief model, and breast cancer screening among Iranian women with a family history of breast cancer.

PubMed

Farajzadegan, Ziba; Fathollahi-Dehkordi, Fariba; Hematti, Simin; Sirous, Reza; Tavakoli, Neda; Rouzbahani, Reza

2016-01-01

Participation of Iranian women with a family history of breast cancer in breast cancer screening programs is low. This study evaluates the compliance of women having a family history of breast cancer with clinical breast exam (CBE) according to the stage of transtheoretical model (TTM) and health belief model (HBM). In this cross-sectional study, we used Persian version of champion's HBM scale to collect factors associated with TTM stages applied to screening from women over 20 years and older. The obtained data were analyzed by SPSS, using descriptive statistics, Chi-square test, independent t -test, and analysis of covariance. Final sample size was 162 women. Thirty-three percent were in action/maintenance stage. Older women, family history of breast cancer in first-degree relatives, personal history of breast disease, insurance coverage, and a history of breast self-examination were associated with action/maintenance stage. Furthermore, women in action/maintenance stages had significantly fewer perceived barriers in terms of CBE in comparison to women in other stages ( P < 0.05). There was no significant difference in other HBM subscales scores between various stages of CBE screening behavior ( P > 0.05). The finding indicates that the rate of women in action/maintenance stage of CBE is low. Moreover, results show a strong association between perceived barriers and having a regular CBE. These clarify the necessity of promoting national target programs for breast cancer screening, which should be considered as the first preference for reducing CBE barriers.

Novel method for metalloproteins determination in human breast milk by size exclusion chromatography coupled to inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry.

PubMed

Acosta, Mariano; Torres, Sabier; Mariño-Repizo, Leonardo; Martinez, Luis D; Gil, Raúl A

2018-06-02

Levels of essential metals in human breast milk (HBM) have been determined by different analytical techniques, but there is few woks about human whey milk fractions. However, the current trend lies in metalloproteomic and identification of different metalloproteins. In this sense, native separative techniques (N-PAGE and SEC) coupled to ICP-MS provide us with valuable information. Besides it is necessary the development of new methodologies in order to determine with accuracy and precision the profile of such metals and metalloproteins in the different whey protein fractions of HBM. Thus, the aim of this work was to develop a new method for metals and metalloproteins determination by SEC-ICP-MS in whey protein fractions of HBM. Human whey fractions were obtained of HBM samples by ultracentrifugation. Then, protein fractions of whey milk were separated by SEC coupled to ICP-MS for metalloproteins and Mn, Co, Cu and Se quantification. Besides, protein profile of whey milk was determined by N-PAGE and computer assisted image analysis. SEC-ICP-MS results indicated that first and second protein fractions showed detectable levels of the Mn, Co, Cu, and Se. Protein profile determined by N-PAGE and image analysis showed that molecular weight of protein fractions ranged between 68,878-1,228.277 Da. In this work, metalloproteins were analyzed by SEC coupled to ICP-MS, with adequate sensitivity and accuracy. Our study has shown the presence of Mn, Co, Cu and Se bound to two protein fractions in whey milk of HBM. Metals levels analyzed were within the ranges reported in the literature. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Intention of Mothers in Israel to Vaccinate their Sons against the Human Papilloma Virus.

PubMed

Ben Natan, Merav; Midlej, Kareem; Mitelman, Olga; Vafiliev, Katya

This study investigated the intention of mothers in Israel to vaccinate their sons against HPV, using the Health Belief Model (HBM) as a framework, while comparing between Arab and Jewish mothers. The study has a quantitative cross-sectional design. A convenience sample of 200 Jewish and Arab mothers of boys aged 5-18 completed a questionnaire based on the HBM. The research findings indicate that only 14% of the mothers, constituting mostly Arab mothers, vaccinated their sons against HPV. Moreover, mothers showed a moderate level of intention to vaccinate their sons. This level was similar among Arab and Jewish mothers. However, the health beliefs of Jewish and Arab mothers differed. The HBM was found to explain 68% of mothers' intention to vaccinate their sons against HPV, and the perceived benefits of the vaccine were the factor most affecting this intention. Although mothers' health beliefs concerning vaccinating their sons against HPV may vary between sectors, the HBM can be used to explain what motivates mothers to vaccinate their sons. The research findings can assist in designing a national project among mothers of boys aimed at raising HPV vaccination rates, in both the Jewish and the Arab sector. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Prospective Hospital-based Surveillance to Estimate Rotavirus Disease Burden in Bhutanese Children under 5 Years of Age.

PubMed

Wangchuk, Sonam; Dorji, Tshering; Tsheten; Tshering, Karchung; Zangmo, Sangay; Pem Tshering, Kunzang; Dorji, Tandin; Nishizono, Akira; Ahmed, Kamruddin

2015-03-01

As part of efforts to develop an informed policy for rotavirus vaccination, this prospective study was conducted to estimate the burden of rotavirus diarrhea among children less than 5 years old attended to the Department of Pediatrics, Jigme Dorji Wangchuk National Referral Hospital (JDWNRH), Thimphu, Bhutan. The duration of the study was three years, extending from February 2010 through December 2012. We estimated the frequency of hospitalization in the pediatric ward and dehydration treatment unit (DTU) for diarrhea and the number of events attributable to rotavirus infection among children under 5 years of age. During the study period, a total of 284 children (1 in 45) were hospitalized in the pediatric ward, and 2,220 (1 in 6) in the DTU with diarrhea among children residing in the Thimphu district. Group A rotavirus was detected in 32.5% and 18.8% of the stool samples from children hospitalized in the pediatric ward, respectively. Overall, 22.3% of the stool samples were rotavirus-positive, and the majority (90.8%) of them was detected in children under 2 years of age. From this study, we estimated that the annual incidence of hospitalization in the pediatric ward and DTU due to rotavirus diarrhea was 2.4/1000 (95% CI 1.7-3.4) and 10.8/1000 (95% CI 9.1-12.7) children, respectively. This study revealed that rotavirus is a major cause of diarrhea in Bhutanese children in Thimphu district and since no study has been performed previously, represents an important finding for policy discussions regarding the adoption of a rotavirus vaccine in Bhutan.

Estimates of monthly streamflow characteristics at selected sites in the upper Missouri River basin, Montana, base period water years 1937-86

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrett, Charles; Johnson, D.R.; Hull, J.A.

1989-01-01

Estimates of streamflow characteristics (monthly mean flow that is exceeded 90, 80, 50, and 20 percent of the time for all years of record and mean monthly flow) were made and are presented in tabular form for 312 sites in the Missouri River basin in Montana. Short-term gaged records were extended to the base period of water years 1937-86, and were used to estimate monthly streamflow characteristics at 100 sites. Data from 47 gaged sites were used in regression analysis relating the streamflow characteristics to basin characteristics and to active-channel width. The basin-characteristics equations, with standard errors of 35% to 97%, were used to estimate streamflow characteristics at 179 ungaged sites. The channel-width equations, with standard errors of 36% to 103%, were used to estimate characteristics at 138 ungaged sites. Streamflow measurements were correlated with concurrent streamflows at nearby gaged sites to estimate streamflow characteristics at 139 ungaged sites. In a test using 20 pairs of gages, the standard errors ranged from 31% to 111%. At 139 ungaged sites, the estimates from two or more of the methods were weighted and combined in accordance with the variance of individual methods. When estimates from three methods were combined the standard errors ranged from 24% to 63 %. A drainage-area-ratio adjustment method was used to estimate monthly streamflow characteristics at seven ungaged sites. The reliability of the drainage-area-ratio adjustment method was estimated to be about equal to that of the basin-characteristics method. The estimate were checked for reliability. Estimates of monthly streamflow characteristics from gaged records were considered to be most reliable, and estimates at sites with actual flow record from 1937-86 were considered to be completely reliable (zero error). Weighted-average estimates were considered to be the most reliable estimates made at ungaged sites. (USGS)

Retrospective Analog Year Analyses Using NASA Satellite Precipitation and Soil Moisture Data to Improve USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teng, W. L.; Shannon, H.

2010-12-01

The USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) coordinates the development of the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) for the U.S. and major foreign producing countries. Given the significant effect of weather on crop progress, conditions, and production, WAOB prepares frequent agricultural weather assessments in the Global Agricultural Decision Support Environment (GLADSE). Because the timing of the precipitation is often as important as the amount, in their effects on crop production, WAOB frequently examines precipitation time series to estimate crop productivity. An effective method for such assessment is the use of analog year comparisons, where precipitation time series, based on surface weather stations, from several historical years are compared with the time series from the current year. Once analog years are identified, crop yields can be estimated for the current season based on observed yields from the analog years, because of the similarities in the precipitation patterns. In this study, NASA satellite precipitation and soil moisture time series are used to identify analog years. Given that soil moisture often has a more direct effect than does precipitation on crop water availability, the time series of soil moisture could be more effective than that of precipitation, in identifying those years with similar crop yields. Retrospective analyses of analogs will be conducted to determine any reduction in the level of uncertainty in identifying analog years, and any reduction in false negatives or false positives. The comparison of analog years could potentially be improved by quantifying the selection of analogs, instead of the current visual inspection method. Various approaches to quantifying are currently being evaluated. This study is part of a larger effort to improve WAOB estimates by integrating NASA remote sensing soil moisture observations and research results into GLADSE, including (1) the integration of the Land

Estimation of baseline daily mean streamflows for ungaged locations on Pennsylvania streams, water years 1960-2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stuckey, Marla H.; Koerkle, Edward H.; Ulrich, James E.

2012-01-01

BaSE uses the map correlation method and flow-duration exceedance probability regression equations to estimate baseline daily mean streamflow for an ungaged location. The output from BaSE is a Microsoft Excel® report file that summarizes the reference streamgage and ungaged location information, including basin characteristics, percent difference in basin characteristics between the two locations, any warning associated with the basin characteristics, mean and median streamflow for the ungaged location, and a daily hydrograph of streamflow for water years 1960–2008 for the ungaged location. The daily mean streamflow for the ungaged location can be exported as a text file to be used as input into other statistical software packages. BaSE estimates daily mean streamflow for baseline conditions only, and any alterations to streamflow from regulation, large water use, or substantial mining are not reflected in the estimated streamflow.

[Estimation of the quality of life 8-year-old child with bilateral anophthalmia].

PubMed

Sredzińska-Kita, Dorota; Mrugacz, Małgorzata; Bakunowicz-Łazarczyk, Alina

2009-01-01

The main aim of our work was to estimate the physical and psychomotor development and the arrangement to the daily life for a 8-year-old girl with inborn bilateral anophthalmia. The basic ophthalmic, pediatric and neurological examinations were performed with additional genetic and radiological examinations. The ophthalmic and MRI examination find out the absence of the eyeballs, optic nerves, optic chiasm, optic tracts and optic radiation. Anophthalmia limits in a big grade an independent life of the child. However, currently the girl's development indicates for good intellectual abilities what is promising for future independent life and professional work.

Association between estimated fluoride intake and dental caries prevalence among 5-year-old children in Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Min-Ji; Kim, Han-Na; Jun, Eun-Joo; Ha, Jung-Eun; Han, Dong-Hun; Kim, Jin-Bom

2015-12-30

The purposes of this study were to estimate the fluoride intake from food and drink in 5-year-old Korean children, and to measure the association between estimated fluoride intake and dental caries prevalence. The study involved a secondary analysis of raw data from the 4(th) Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES; 2007-2009). The study subjects were 167 boys and 147 girls aged 5 years who had undergone both physical and nutritional examination as part of the survey. The KNHANES comprised a health questionnaire, a physical examination, and a nutritional examination. The nutritional examination of KNHANES consisted of 3 parts: a dietary life survey, a food-frequency questionnaire, and a food intake investigation. The food intake investigation used the 24-h recall method, with information being provided by the children's parents. On the basis of this information, we evaluated the fluoride content in a total of 310 food items using the hexamethyldisiloxane (HMDS)-facilitated diffusion method, modified using Taves' microdiffusion method. As part of the KNHANES survey, oral examinations were conducted at a mobile examination centre by trained dentists using dental mirrors under a fluorescent light. These examinations were performed using methods proposed by the World Health Organization. The dietary fluoride intake of 5-year-old Korean children was estimated to be 0.35 mg/day, or 0.016 mg/kg/day. The "decayed or filled surfaces" (dfs) indices of primary teeth were higher in children who had a lower dietary intake of fluoride. There was a significant inverse association between dietary fluoride intake and the prevalence of dental caries. The inverse association between dietary fluoride intake levels and prevalence of dental caries implies that the introduction of community caries prevention programmes may be beneficial. Such programmes would include water fluoridation and a fluoride supplementation programme.

Estimated exposures to perfluorinated compounds in infancy predict attenuated vaccine antibody concentrations at age 5-years.

PubMed

Grandjean, Philippe; Heilmann, Carsten; Weihe, Pal; Nielsen, Flemming; Mogensen, Ulla B; Timmermann, Amalie; Budtz-Jørgensen, Esben

2017-12-01

Perfluorinated alkylate substances (PFASs) are highly persistent and may cause immunotoxic effects. PFAS-associated attenuated antibody responses to childhood vaccines may be affected by PFAS exposures during infancy, where breastfeeding adds to PFAS exposures. Of 490 members of a Faroese birth cohort, 275 and 349 participated in clinical examinations and provided blood samples at ages 18 months and 5 years. PFAS concentrations were measured at birth and at the clinical examinations. Using information on duration of breastfeeding, serum-PFAS concentration profiles during infancy were estimated. As outcomes, serum concentrations of antibodies against tetanus and diphtheria vaccines were determined at age 5. Data from a previous cohort born eight years earlier were available for pooled analyses. Pre-natal exposure showed inverse associations with the antibody concentrations five years later, with decreases by up to about 20% for each two-fold higher exposure, while associations for serum concentrations at ages 18 months and 5 years were weaker. Modeling of serum-PFAS concentration showed levels for age 18 months that were similar to those measured. Concentrations estimated for ages 3 and 6 months showed the strongest inverse associations with antibody concentrations at age 5 years, particularly for tetanus. Joint analyses showed statistically significant decreases in tetanus antibody concentrations by 19-29% at age 5 for each doubling of the PFAS exposure in early infancy. These findings support the notion that the developing adaptive immune system is particularly vulnerable to immunotoxicity during infancy. This vulnerability appears to be the greatest during the first 6 months after birth, where PFAS exposures are affected by breast-feeding.

How can the health belief model and self-determination theory predict both influenza vaccination and vaccination intention ? A longitudinal study among university students.

PubMed

Fall, Estelle; Izaute, Marie; Chakroun-Baggioni, Nadia

2018-06-01

Background and objective Seasonal influenza is frequent among students and often responsible for impaired academic performance and lower levels of general health. However, the vaccination rate in this population is very low. As the seasonal influenza vaccine is not compulsory in France, it is important to improve the vaccination uptake by identifying predictors of both intention and behaviour. This study investigated the effect of decisional balance, motivation and self-efficacy on vaccination acceptance using the Extended Health Belief Model (HBM) and Self-Determination Theory (SDT). Design and Main Outcome Measures University students were invited to fill in an online survey to answer questions about their influenza vaccination intention, and HBM and SDT constructs. A one-year longitudinal follow-up study investigated vaccination behaviour. Results Autonomous motivation and self-efficacy significantly influenced the intention to have the influenza vaccine, and vaccine behaviour at one-year follow-up. Intention predicted a significant proportion of variation (51%) in behaviour, and mediated the effect of these predictors on vaccination behaviour. Conclusion These results suggest that motivation concepts of the Self-Determination Theory can be adequately combined with the Health Belief Model to understand vaccination behaviour.

CONTRIBUTIONS OF CURRENT YEAR PHOTOSYNTHATE TO FINE ROOTS ESTIMATED USING A 13C-DEPLETED CO2 SOURCE

EPA Science Inventory

The quantification of root turnover is necessary for a complete understanding of plant carbon (C) budgets, especially in terms of impacts of global climate change. To improve estimates of root turnover, we present a method to distinguish current- from prior-year allocation of ca...

Estimates of natural streamflow at two streamgages on the Esopus Creek, New York, water years 1932 to 2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burns, Douglas A.; Gazoorian, Christopher L.

2015-01-01

Natural discharge at the Mount Marion streamgage was estimated by summing the natural discharge estimated for the Coldbrook streamgage and the discharge estimated for the intervening basin area through application of the New York Streamflow Estimation Tool, recently developed for estimating unaltered streamflow at ungaged locations in the State. Estimates of natural daily discharge at the Mount Marion streamgage were about three times greater than gaged daily discharge throughout the moderate- to low-flow range from October 1, 1970, to September 30, 2012, the period of record for full water years at this streamgage. The relative difference between the two discharge time series declined as flow increased beyond the moderate range, but gaged daily discharge was still 25 to 43 percent less than estimated natural daily discharge for the high-flow metrics calculated in this analysis, and the mean relative difference was 43 percent for the annual 1-day maximum discharge. Overall, these estimates of natural discharge reflect the absence of effects of the Shandaken Tunnel and Ashokan Reservoir on flows in the Esopus Creek over broad time frames. However, caution is warranted if one is attempting to apply the natural estimates at short time scales because the regression prediction intervals indicate that uncertainty at a daily time step ranges from about 40 to 80 percent.

Estimating 40 years of nitrogen deposition in global biomes using the SCIAMACHY NO2 column

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lu, Xuehe; Zhang, Xiuying; Liu, Jinxun; Jin, Jiaxin

2016-01-01

Owing to human activity, global nitrogen (N) cycles have been altered. In the past 100 years, global N deposition has increased. Currently, the monitoring and estimating of N deposition and the evaluation of its effects on global carbon budgets are the focus of many researchers. NO2 columns retrieved by space-borne sensors provide us with a new way of exploring global N cycles and these have the ability to estimate N deposition. However, the time range limitation of NO2 columns makes the estimation of long timescale N deposition difficult. In this study we used ground-based NOx emission data to expand the density of NO2columns, and 40 years of N deposition (1970–2009) was inverted using the multivariate linear model with expanded NO2 columns. The dynamic of N deposition was examined in both global and biome scales. The results show that the average N deposition was 0.34 g N m–2 year–1 in the 2000s, which was an increase of 38.4% compared with the 1970s’. The total N deposition in different biomes is unbalanced. N deposition is only 38.0% of the global total in forest biomes; this is made up of 25.9%, 11.3, and 0.7% in tropical, temperate, and boreal forests, respectively. As N-limited biomes, there was little increase of N deposition in boreal forests. However, N deposition has increased by a total of 59.6% in tropical forests and croplands, which are N-rich biomes. Such characteristics may influence the effects on global carbon budgets.

Health belief model based evaluation of school health education programme for injury prevention among high school students in the community context.

PubMed

Cao, Zhi-Juan; Chen, Yue; Wang, Shu-Mei

2014-01-10

Although multifaceted community-based programmes have been widely developed, there remains a paucity of evaluation of the effectiveness of multifaceted injury prevention programmes implemented in different settings in the community context. This study was to provide information for the evaluation of community-based health education programmes of injury prevention among high school students. The pre-intervention survey was conducted in November 2009. Health belief model (HBM) based health education for injury prevention started in January 2010 and stopped in the end of 2011 among high school students in the community context in Shanghai, China. A post-intervention survey was conducted six weeks after the completion of intervention. Injury-related health belief indicators were captured by a short questionnaire before and after the intervention. Health belief scores were calculated and compared using the simple sum score (SSS) method and the confirmatory factor analysis weighted score (CFAWS) method, respectively. The average reliability coefficient for the questionnaire was 0.89. The factor structure of HBM was given and the data fit HBM in the confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) very well. The result of CFA showed that Perceived Benefits of Taking Action (BEN) and Perceived Seriousness (SER) had the greatest impact on the health belief, Perceived Susceptibility (SUS) and Cues to Action (CTA) were the second and third most important components of HBM respectively. Barriers to Taking Action (BAR) had no notable impact on HBM. The standardized path coefficient was only 0.35, with only a small impact on CTA. The health belief score was significantly higher after intervention (p < 0.001), which was similar in the CFAWS method and in the SSS method. However, the 95% confidential interval in the CFAWS method was narrower than that in the SSS method. The results of CFA provide further empirical support for the HBM in injury intervention. The CFAWS method can be used to

Doctor-Shopping Behavior among Patients with Eye Floaters

PubMed Central

Tseng, Gow-Lieng; Chen, Cheng-Yu

2015-01-01

Patients suffering from eye floaters often resort to consulting more than one ophthalmologist. The purpose of this study, using the Health Belief Model (HBM), was to identify the factors that influence doctor-shopping behavior among patients with eye floaters. In this cross-sectional survey, 175 outpatients who presented floaters symptoms were enrolled. Data from 143 patients (77 first time visitors and 66 doctor-shoppers) who completed the questionnaire were analyzed. Descriptive and logistic regression analyses were performed. We found that women and non-myopia patients were significantly related with frequent attendance and doctor switching. Though the HBM has performed well in a number of health behaviors studies, but most of the conceptual constructors of HBM did not show significant differences between the first time visitors and true doctor-shoppers in this study. Motivation was the only significant category affecting doctor-shopping behavior of patients with eye floaters. PMID:26184266

Doctor-Shopping Behavior among Patients with Eye Floaters.

PubMed

Tseng, Gow-Lieng; Chen, Cheng-Yu

2015-07-13

Patients suffering from eye floaters often resort to consulting more than one ophthalmologist. The purpose of this study, using the Health Belief Model (HBM), was to identify the factors that influence doctor-shopping behavior among patients with eye floaters. In this cross-sectional survey, 175 outpatients who presented floaters symptoms were enrolled. Data from 143 patients (77 first time visitors and 66 doctor-shoppers) who completed the questionnaire were analyzed. Descriptive and logistic regression analyses were performed. We found that women and non-myopia patients were significantly related with frequent attendance and doctor switching. Though the HBM has performed well in a number of health behaviors studies, but most of the conceptual constructors of HBM did not show significant differences between the first time visitors and true doctor-shoppers in this study. Motivation was the only significant category affecting doctor-shopping behavior of patients with eye floaters.

Active muscle response using feedback control of a finite element human arm model.

PubMed

Östh, Jonas; Brolin, Karin; Happee, Riender

2012-01-01

Mathematical human body models (HBMs) are important research tools that are used to study the human response in car crash situations. Development of automotive safety systems requires the implementation of active muscle response in HBM, as novel safety systems also interact with vehicle occupants in the pre-crash phase. In this study, active muscle response was implemented using feedback control of a nonlinear muscle model in the right upper extremity of a finite element (FE) HBM. Hill-type line muscle elements were added, and the active and passive properties were assessed. Volunteer tests with low impact loading resulting in elbow flexion motions were performed. Simulations of posture maintenance in a gravity field and the volunteer tests were successfully conducted. It was concluded that feedback control of a nonlinear musculoskeletal model can be used to obtain posture maintenance and human-like reflexive responses in an FE HBM.

Community knowledge, health beliefs, practices and experiences related to dengue fever and its association with IgG seropositivity.

PubMed

Wong, Li Ping; AbuBakar, Sazaly; Chinna, Karuthan

2014-05-01

Demographic, economic and behavioural factors are central features underpinning the successful management and biological control of dengue. This study aimed to examine these factors and their association with the seroprevalence of this disease. We conducted a cross-sectional telephone survey of households in a 3 km radius of the schools where we had conducted serological tests on the student population in a previous study. Households were surveyed about their socio-demographics, knowledge, practices, and Health Belief Model (HBM) constructs. The results were then associated with the prevalence rate of dengue in the community, as marked by IgG seropositivity of the students who attended school there. A total of 1,400 complete responses were obtained. The community's IgG seropositivity was significantly positively associated with high household monthly income, high-rise residential building type, high surrounding vegetation density, rural locality, high perceived severity and susceptibility, perceived barriers to prevention, knowing that a neighbour has dengue, frequent fogging and a higher level of knowledge about dengue. In the multivariate analyses, three major correlates of the presence of IgG seropositivity in the community: (1) high-rise residential apartment house type or condominium buildings; (2) the main construct of the HBM, perceived severity and susceptibility; and (3) the additional constructs of the HBM, lack of preventive measures from the community level and having a neighbour with dengue as a cue to action. Weak correlations were found between self-practices to prevent dengue and the level of dengue seropositivity in the community, and between HBM constructs and knowledge (r = 0.09). The residential environment factor and the constructs of the HBM are useful and important elements in developing interventions to prevent and control dengue. The study also sheds light on the importance of the need for approaches that ensure the translation of

Finite element comparison of human and Hybrid III responses in a frontal impact.

PubMed

Danelson, Kerry A; Golman, Adam J; Kemper, Andrew R; Gayzik, F Scott; Clay Gabler, H; Duma, Stefan M; Stitzel, Joel D

2015-12-01

The improvement of finite element (FE) Human Body Models (HBMs) has made them valuable tools for investigating restraint interactions compared to anthropomorphic test devices (ATDs). The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of various combinations of safety restraint systems on the sensitivity of thoracic injury criteria using matched ATD and Human Body Model (HBM) simulations at two crash severities. A total of seven (7) variables were investigated: 3-point belt with two (2) load limits, frontal airbag, knee bolster airbag, a buckle pretensioner, and two (2) delta-v's - 40kph and 50kph. Twenty four (24) simulations were conducted for the Hybrid III ATD FE model and repeated with a validated HBM for 48 total simulations. Metrics tested in these conditions included sternum deflection, chest acceleration, chest excursion, Viscous Criteria (V*C) criteria, pelvis acceleration, pelvis excursion, and femur forces. Additionally, chest band deflection and rib strain distribution were measured in the HBM for additional restraint condition discrimination. The addition of a frontal airbag had the largest effect on the occupant chest metrics with an increase in chest compression and acceleration but a decrease in excursion. While the THUMS and Hybrid III occupants demonstrated the same trend in the chest compression measurements, there were conflicting results in the V*C, acceleration, and displacement metrics. Similarly, the knee bolster airbag had the largest effect on the pelvis with a decrease in acceleration and excursion. With a knee bolster airbag the simulated occupants gave conflicting results, the THUMS had a decrease in femur force and the ATD had an increase. Preferential use of dummies or HBM's is not debated; however, this study highlights the ability of HBM metrics to capture additional chest response metrics. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Qualitative to quantitative: linked trajectory of method triangulation in a study on HIV/AIDS in Goa, India.

PubMed

Bailey, Ajay; Hutter, Inge

2008-10-01

With 3.1 million people estimated to be living with HIV/AIDS in India and 39.5 million people globally, the epidemic has posed academics the challenge of identifying behaviours and their underlying beliefs in the effort to reduce the risk of HIV transmission. The Health Belief Model (HBM) is frequently used to identify risk behaviours and adherence behaviour in the field of HIV/AIDS. Risk behaviour studies that apply HBM have been largely quantitative and use of qualitative methodology is rare. The marriage of qualitative and quantitative methods has never been easy. The challenge is in triangulating the methods. Method triangulation has been largely used to combine insights from the qualitative and quantitative methods but not to link both the methods. In this paper we suggest a linked trajectory of method triangulation (LTMT). The linked trajectory aims to first gather individual level information through in-depth interviews and then to present the information as vignettes in focus group discussions. We thus validate information obtained from in-depth interviews and gather emic concepts that arise from the interaction. We thus capture both the interpretation and the interaction angles of the qualitative method. Further, using the qualitative information gained, a survey is designed. In doing so, the survey questions are grounded and contextualized. We employed this linked trajectory of method triangulation in a study on the risk assessment of HIV/AIDS among migrant and mobile men. Fieldwork was carried out in Goa, India. Data come from two waves of studies, first an explorative qualitative study (2003), second a larger study (2004-2005), including in-depth interviews (25), focus group discussions (21) and a survey (n=1259). By employing the qualitative to quantitative LTMT we can not only contextualize the existing concepts of the HBM, but also validate new concepts and identify new risk groups.

Effect of educational intervention based on the Health Belief Model on promoting self-care behaviors of type-2 diabetes patients.

PubMed

Shabibi, Parisa; Zavareh, Mohammad Sadegh Abedzadeh; Sayehmiri, Kourosh; Qorbani, Mostafa; Safari, Omid; Rastegarimehr, Babak; Mansourian, Morteza

2017-12-01

Diabetes is a chronic disease in which patients require lifelong self-care behaviors. The present study offset to determine the effect of educational intervention based on the Health Belief Model (HBM) on promoting self-care behaviors of type 2 diabetes patients in Ilam, Iran 2014. A quasi-experimental research was conducted based on HBM in which 70 type 2 diabetic patients from Ilam, western Iran in 2014 were selected by multi-stage random sampling. A self-designed questionnaire was used, and pre-test was administered, subsequently, the educational intervention sessions were provided in the form of presentation, questions and answers, group discussion, and practical demonstrations in four sessions over a period of one month. Two months after the intervention, the post-tests were administered. The data were analyzed via SPSS 20 applying independent samples t-test, paired samples t-test, and univariate and multivariate regressions at a significance level of less than 0.05. The mean scores of susceptibility, severity, perceived benefits and barriers, self-efficacy, and self-care behaviors were at average and lower levels before the intervention; nonetheless, after the educational intervention, the mean score of each HBM construct and the self-care behaviors significantly increased (p<0.001). Health education through HBM promotes the self-care behaviors of patients with type 2 diabetes.

Multilevel model to estimate county-level untreated dental caries among US children aged 6-9years using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

PubMed

Lin, Mei; Zhang, Xingyou; Holt, James B; Robison, Valerie; Li, Chien-Hsun; Griffin, Susan O

2018-06-01

Because conducting population-based oral health screening is resource intensive, oral health data at small-area levels (e.g., county-level) are not commonly available. We applied the multilevel logistic regression and poststratification method to estimate county-level prevalence of untreated dental caries among children aged 6-9years in the United States using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2005-2010 linked with various area-level data at census tract, county and state levels. We validated model-based national estimates against direct estimates from NHANES. We also compared model-based estimates with direct estimates from select State Oral Health Surveys (SOHS) at state and county levels. The model with individual-level covariates only and the model with individual-, census tract- and county-level covariates explained 7.2% and 96.3% respectively of overall county-level variation in untreated caries. Model-based county-level prevalence estimates ranged from 4.9% to 65.2% with median of 22.1%. The model-based national estimate (19.9%) matched the NHANES direct estimate (19.8%). We found significantly positive correlations between model-based estimates for 8-year-olds and direct estimates from the third-grade State Oral Health Surveys (SOHS) at state level for 34 states (Pearson coefficient: 0.54, P=0.001) and SOHS estimates at county level for 53 New York counties (Pearson coefficient: 0.38, P=0.006). This methodology could be a useful tool to characterize county-level disparities in untreated dental caries among children aged 6-9years and complement oral health surveillance to inform public health programs especially when local-level data are not available although the lack of external validation due to data unavailability should be acknowledged. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Regression equations for estimating flood flows for the 2-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-Year recurrence intervals in Connecticut

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ahearn, Elizabeth A.

2004-01-01

Multiple linear-regression equations were developed to estimate the magnitudes of floods in Connecticut for recurrence intervals ranging from 2 to 500 years. The equations can be used for nonurban, unregulated stream sites in Connecticut with drainage areas ranging from about 2 to 715 square miles. Flood-frequency data and hydrologic characteristics from 70 streamflow-gaging stations and the upstream drainage basins were used to develop the equations. The hydrologic characteristics?drainage area, mean basin elevation, and 24-hour rainfall?are used in the equations to estimate the magnitude of floods. Average standard errors of prediction for the equations are 31.8, 32.7, 34.4, 35.9, 37.6 and 45.0 percent for the 2-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence intervals, respectively. Simplified equations using only one hydrologic characteristic?drainage area?also were developed. The regression analysis is based on generalized least-squares regression techniques. Observed flows (log-Pearson Type III analysis of the annual maximum flows) from five streamflow-gaging stations in urban basins in Connecticut were compared to flows estimated from national three-parameter and seven-parameter urban regression equations. The comparison shows that the three- and seven- parameter equations used in conjunction with the new statewide equations generally provide reasonable estimates of flood flows for urban sites in Connecticut, although a national urban flood-frequency study indicated that the three-parameter equations significantly underestimated flood flows in many regions of the country. Verification of the accuracy of the three-parameter or seven-parameter national regression equations using new data from Connecticut stations was beyond the scope of this study. A technique for calculating flood flows at streamflow-gaging stations using a weighted average also is described. Two estimates of flood flows?one estimate based on the log-Pearson Type III analyses of the annual

Perceived risks of HIV/AIDS and first sexual intercourse among youth in Cape Town, South Africa.

PubMed

Tenkorang, Eric Y; Rajulton, Fernando; Maticka-Tyndale, Eleanor

2009-04-01

The 'Health Belief Model' (HBM) identifies perception of HIV/AIDS risks, recognition of its seriousness, and knowledge about prevention as predictors of safer sexual activity. Using data from the Cape Area Panel Survey (CAPS) and hazard models, this study examines the impact of risk perception, considered the first step in HIV prevention, set within the context of the HBM and socio-economic, familial and school factors, on the timing of first sexual intercourse among youth aged 14-22 in Cape Town, South Africa. Of the HBM components, female youth who perceive their risk as 'very small' and males with higher knowledge, experience their sexual debut later than comparison groups, net of other influences. For both males and females socio-economic and familial factors also influence timing of sexual debut, confirming the need to consider the social embeddedness of this sexual behavior as well as the rational components of decision making when designing prevention programs.

Performances of the PIPER scalable child human body model in accident reconstruction

PubMed Central

Giordano, Chiara; Kleiven, Svein

2017-01-01

Human body models (HBMs) have the potential to provide significant insights into the pediatric response to impact. This study describes a scalable/posable approach to perform child accident reconstructions using the Position and Personalize Advanced Human Body Models for Injury Prediction (PIPER) scalable child HBM of different ages and in different positions obtained by the PIPER tool. Overall, the PIPER scalable child HBM managed reasonably well to predict the injury severity and location of the children involved in real-life crash scenarios documented in the medical records. The developed methodology and workflow is essential for future work to determine child injury tolerances based on the full Child Advanced Safety Project for European Roads (CASPER) accident reconstruction database. With the workflow presented in this study, the open-source PIPER scalable HBM combined with the PIPER tool is also foreseen to have implications for improved safety designs for a better protection of children in traffic accidents. PMID:29135997

A Thematic Analysis of Health Care Workers' Adoption of Mindfulness Practices.

PubMed

Valley, Morgan; Stallones, Lorann

2018-05-01

Mindfulness training, which teaches individuals to bring awareness and acceptance to the present moment, has been effective in improving the well-being of health care workers. Limited research examines the adoption of mindfulness practices using health behavior theories. The current study sought to conceptualize hospital health care workers' experiences in adopting mindfulness practices using the Health Belief Model (HBM), a theoretical framework used by health promotion practitioners to design and implement health behavior change interventions. Hospital health care workers in Colorado participated in an 8-week Mindfulness-Based Stress Reduction (MBSR) course. Participants ( n = 19) answered open-ended questions about their experiences adopting mindfulness practices. A theory-driven thematic analysis approach was used to analyze data with key constructs of the HBM acting as the framework for the analysis. Results showed that HBM constructs, including internal cues to action, perceived benefits and barriers, and self-efficacy, helped portray the participants' experiences and challenges in adopting and adhering to the mindfulness practices taught in the MBSR course.

The role of anticipated regret and health beliefs in HPV vaccination intentions among young adults.

PubMed

Christy, Shannon M; Winger, Joseph G; Raffanello, Elizabeth W; Halpern, Leslie F; Danoff-Burg, Sharon; Mosher, Catherine E

2016-06-01

Although cognitions have predicted young adults' human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine decision-making, emotion-based theories of healthcare decision-making suggest that anticipatory emotions may be more predictive. This study examined whether anticipated regret was associated with young adults' intentions to receive the HPV vaccine above and beyond the effects of commonly studied cognitions. Unvaccinated undergraduates (N = 233) completed a survey assessing Health Belief Model (HBM) variables (i.e., perceived severity of HPV-related diseases, perceived risk of developing these diseases, and perceived benefits of HPV vaccination), anticipatory emotions (i.e., anticipated regret if one were unvaccinated and later developed genital warts or HPV-related cancer), and HPV vaccine intentions. Anticipated regret was associated with HPV vaccine intentions above and beyond the effects of HBM variables among men. Among women, neither anticipated regret nor HBM variables showed consistent associations with HPV vaccine intentions. Findings suggest that anticipatory emotions should be considered when designing interventions to increase HPV vaccination among college men.

Analytical approximations for the oscillators with anti-symmetric quadratic nonlinearity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alal Hosen, Md.; Chowdhury, M. S. H.; Yeakub Ali, Mohammad; Faris Ismail, Ahmad

2017-12-01

A second-order ordinary differential equation involving anti-symmetric quadratic nonlinearity changes sign. The behaviour of the oscillators with an anti-symmetric quadratic nonlinearity is assumed to oscillate different in the positive and negative directions. In this reason, Harmonic Balance Method (HBM) cannot be directly applied. The main purpose of the present paper is to propose an analytical approximation technique based on the HBM for obtaining approximate angular frequencies and the corresponding periodic solutions of the oscillators with anti-symmetric quadratic nonlinearity. After applying HBM, a set of complicated nonlinear algebraic equations is found. Analytical approach is not always fruitful for solving such kinds of nonlinear algebraic equations. In this article, two small parameters are found, for which the power series solution produces desired results. Moreover, the amplitude-frequency relationship has also been determined in a novel analytical way. The presented technique gives excellent results as compared with the corresponding numerical results and is better than the existing ones.

The role of anticipated regret and health beliefs in HPV vaccination intentions among young adults

PubMed Central

Christy, Shannon M.; Winger, Joseph G.; Raffanello, Elizabeth W.; Halpern, Leslie F.; Danoff-Burg, Sharon; Mosher, Catherine E.

2016-01-01

Although cognitions have predicted young adults’ human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine decision-making, emotion-based theories of healthcare decision-making suggest that anticipatory emotions may be more predictive. This study examined whether anticipated regret was associated with young adults’ intentions to receive the HPV vaccine above and beyond the effects of commonly studied cognitions. Unvaccinated undergraduates (N = 233) completed a survey assessing Health Belief Model (HBM) variables (i.e., perceived severity of HPV-related diseases, perceived risk of developing these diseases, and perceived benefits of HPV vaccination), anticipatory emotions (i.e., anticipated regret if one were unvaccinated and later developed genital warts or HPV-related cancer), and HPV vaccine intentions. Anticipated regret was associated with HPV vaccine intentions above and beyond the effects of HBM variables among men. Among women, neither anticipated regret nor HBM variables showed consistent associations with HPV vaccine intentions. Findings suggest that anticipatory emotions should be considered when designing interventions to increase HPV vaccination among college men. PMID:26782668

Estimating global, regional and national rotavirus deaths in children aged <5 years: Current approaches, new analyses and proposed improvements.

PubMed

Clark, Andrew; Black, Robert; Tate, Jacqueline; Roose, Anna; Kotloff, Karen; Lam, Diana; Blackwelder, William; Parashar, Umesh; Lanata, Claudio; Kang, Gagandeep; Troeger, Christopher; Platts-Mills, James; Mokdad, Ali; Sanderson, Colin; Lamberti, Laura; Levine, Myron; Santosham, Mathuram; Steele, Duncan

2017-01-01

Rotavirus is a leading cause of diarrhoeal mortality in children but there is considerable disagreement about how many deaths occur each year. We compared CHERG, GBD and WHO/CDC estimates of age under 5 years (U5) rotavirus deaths at the global, regional and national level using a standard year (2013) and standard list of 186 countries. The global estimates were 157,398 (CHERG), 122,322 (GBD) and 215,757 (WHO/CDC). The three groups used different methods: (i) to select data points for rotavirus-positive proportions; (ii) to extrapolate data points to individual countries; (iii) to account for rotavirus vaccine coverage; (iv) to convert rotavirus-positive proportions to rotavirus attributable fractions; and (v) to calculate uncertainty ranges. We conducted new analyses to inform future estimates. We found that acute watery diarrhoea was associated with 87% (95% CI 83-90%) of U5 diarrhoea hospitalisations based on data from 84 hospital sites in 9 countries, and 65% (95% CI 57-74%) of U5 diarrhoea deaths based on verbal autopsy reports from 9 country sites. We reanalysed data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) and found 44% (55% in Asia, and 32% in Africa) rotavirus-positivity among U5 acute watery diarrhoea hospitalisations, and 28% rotavirus-positivity among U5 acute watery diarrhoea deaths. 97% (95% CI 95-98%) of the U5 diarrhoea hospitalisations that tested positive for rotavirus were entirely attributable to rotavirus. For all clinical syndromes combined the rotavirus attributable fraction was 34% (95% CI 31-36%). This increased by a factor of 1.08 (95% CI 1.02-1.14) when the GEMS results were reanalysed using a more sensitive molecular test. We developed consensus on seven proposals for improving the quality and transparency of future rotavirus mortality estimates.

Estimating global, regional and national rotavirus deaths in children aged <5 years: Current approaches, new analyses and proposed improvements

PubMed Central

Black, Robert; Tate, Jacqueline; Roose, Anna; Kotloff, Karen; Parashar, Umesh; Lanata, Claudio; Kang, Gagandeep; Troeger, Christopher; Platts-Mills, James; Mokdad, Ali; Sanderson, Colin; Lamberti, Laura; Santosham, Mathuram; Steele, Duncan

2017-01-01

Background Rotavirus is a leading cause of diarrhoeal mortality in children but there is considerable disagreement about how many deaths occur each year. Methods and findings We compared CHERG, GBD and WHO/CDC estimates of age under 5 years (U5) rotavirus deaths at the global, regional and national level using a standard year (2013) and standard list of 186 countries. The global estimates were 157,398 (CHERG), 122,322 (GBD) and 215,757 (WHO/CDC). The three groups used different methods: (i) to select data points for rotavirus-positive proportions; (ii) to extrapolate data points to individual countries; (iii) to account for rotavirus vaccine coverage; (iv) to convert rotavirus-positive proportions to rotavirus attributable fractions; and (v) to calculate uncertainty ranges. We conducted new analyses to inform future estimates. We found that acute watery diarrhoea was associated with 87% (95% CI 83–90%) of U5 diarrhoea hospitalisations based on data from 84 hospital sites in 9 countries, and 65% (95% CI 57–74%) of U5 diarrhoea deaths based on verbal autopsy reports from 9 country sites. We reanalysed data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) and found 44% (55% in Asia, and 32% in Africa) rotavirus-positivity among U5 acute watery diarrhoea hospitalisations, and 28% rotavirus-positivity among U5 acute watery diarrhoea deaths. 97% (95% CI 95–98%) of the U5 diarrhoea hospitalisations that tested positive for rotavirus were entirely attributable to rotavirus. For all clinical syndromes combined the rotavirus attributable fraction was 34% (95% CI 31–36%). This increased by a factor of 1.08 (95% CI 1.02–1.14) when the GEMS results were reanalysed using a more sensitive molecular test. Conclusions We developed consensus on seven proposals for improving the quality and transparency of future rotavirus mortality estimates. PMID:28892480

Estimating Uncertainty in Annual Forest Inventory Estimates

Treesearch

Ronald E. McRoberts; Veronica C. Lessard

1999-01-01

The precision of annual forest inventory estimates may be negatively affected by uncertainty from a variety of sources including: (1) sampling error; (2) procedures for updating plots not measured in the current year; and (3) measurement errors. The impact of these sources of uncertainty on final inventory estimates is investigated using Monte Carlo simulation...

The moving-window Bayesian Maximum Entropy framework: Estimation of PM2.5 yearly average concentration across the contiguous United States

PubMed Central

Akita, Yasuyuki; Chen, Jiu-Chiuan; Serre, Marc L.

2013-01-01

Geostatistical methods are widely used in estimating long-term exposures for air pollution epidemiological studies, despite their limited capabilities to handle spatial non-stationarity over large geographic domains and uncertainty associated with missing monitoring data. We developed a moving-window (MW) Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) method and applied this framework to estimate fine particulate matter (PM2.5) yearly average concentrations over the contiguous U.S. The MW approach accounts for the spatial non-stationarity, while the BME method rigorously processes the uncertainty associated with data missingnees in the air monitoring system. In the cross-validation analyses conducted on a set of randomly selected complete PM2.5 data in 2003 and on simulated data with different degrees of missing data, we demonstrate that the MW approach alone leads to at least 17.8% reduction in mean square error (MSE) in estimating the yearly PM2.5. Moreover, the MWBME method further reduces the MSE by 8.4% to 43.7% with the proportion of incomplete data increased from 18.3% to 82.0%. The MWBME approach leads to significant reductions in estimation error and thus is recommended for epidemiological studies investigating the effect of long-term exposure to PM2.5 across large geographical domains with expected spatial non-stationarity. PMID:22739679

The moving-window Bayesian maximum entropy framework: estimation of PM(2.5) yearly average concentration across the contiguous United States.

PubMed

Akita, Yasuyuki; Chen, Jiu-Chiuan; Serre, Marc L

2012-09-01

Geostatistical methods are widely used in estimating long-term exposures for epidemiological studies on air pollution, despite their limited capabilities to handle spatial non-stationarity over large geographic domains and the uncertainty associated with missing monitoring data. We developed a moving-window (MW) Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) method and applied this framework to estimate fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)) yearly average concentrations over the contiguous US. The MW approach accounts for the spatial non-stationarity, while the BME method rigorously processes the uncertainty associated with data missingness in the air-monitoring system. In the cross-validation analyses conducted on a set of randomly selected complete PM(2.5) data in 2003 and on simulated data with different degrees of missing data, we demonstrate that the MW approach alone leads to at least 17.8% reduction in mean square error (MSE) in estimating the yearly PM(2.5). Moreover, the MWBME method further reduces the MSE by 8.4-43.7%, with the proportion of incomplete data increased from 18.3% to 82.0%. The MWBME approach leads to significant reductions in estimation error and thus is recommended for epidemiological studies investigating the effect of long-term exposure to PM(2.5) across large geographical domains with expected spatial non-stationarity.

Validation of thigh-based accelerometer estimates of postural allocation in 5-12 year-olds.

PubMed

van Loo, Christiana M T; Okely, Anthony D; Batterham, Marijka J; Hinkley, Trina; Ekelund, Ulf; Brage, Søren; Reilly, John J; Jones, Rachel A; Janssen, Xanne; Cliff, Dylan P

2017-03-01

To validate activPAL3™ (AP3) for classifying postural allocation, estimating time spent in postures and examining the number of breaks in sedentary behaviour (SB) in 5-12 year-olds. Laboratory-based validation study. Fifty-seven children completed 15 sedentary, light- and moderate-to-vigorous intensity activities. Direct observation (DO) was used as the criterion measure. The accuracy of AP3 was examined using a confusion matrix, equivalence testing, Bland-Altman procedures and a paired t-test for 5-8y and 9-12y. Sensitivity of AP3 was 86.8%, 82.5% and 85.3% for sitting/lying, standing, and stepping, respectively, in 5-8y and 95.3%, 81.5% and 85.1%, respectively, in 9-12y. Time estimates of AP3 were equivalent to DO for sitting/lying in 9-12y and stepping in all ages, but not for sitting/lying in 5-12y and standing in all ages. Underestimation of sitting/lying time was smaller in 9-12y (1.4%, limits of agreement [LoA]: -13.8 to 11.1%) compared to 5-8y (12.6%, LoA: -39.8 to 14.7%). Underestimation for stepping time was small (5-8y: 6.5%, LoA: -18.3 to 5.3%; 9-12y: 7.6%, LoA: -16.8 to 1.6%). Considerable overestimation was found for standing (5-8y: 36.8%, LoA: -16.3 to 89.8%; 9-12y: 19.3%, LoA: -1.6 to 36.9%). SB breaks were significantly overestimated (5-8y: 53.2%, 9-12y: 28.3%, p<0.001). AP3 showed acceptable accuracy for classifying postures, however estimates of time spent standing were consistently overestimated and individual error was considerable. Estimates of sitting/lying were more accurate for 9-12y. Stepping time was accurately estimated for all ages. SB breaks were significantly overestimated, although the absolute difference was larger in 5-8y. Surveillance applications of AP3 would be acceptable, however, individual level applications might be less accurate. Copyright © 2016 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Human biomonitoring pilot study DEMOCOPHES in Germany: Contribution to a harmonized European approach.

PubMed

Schwedler, Gerda; Seiwert, Margarete; Fiddicke, Ulrike; Ißleb, Sissy; Hölzer, Jürgen; Nendza, Julia; Wilhelm, Michael; Wittsiepe, Jürgen; Koch, Holger M; Schindler, Birgit K; Göen, Thomas; Hildebrand, Jörg; Joas, Reinhard; Joas, Anke; Casteleyn, Ludwine; Angerer, Jürgen; Castano, Argelia; Esteban, Marta; Schoeters, Greet; Den Hond, Elly; Sepai, Ovnair; Exley, Karen; Bloemen, Louis; Knudsen, Lisbeth E; Kolossa-Gehring, Marike

2017-06-01

Human biomonitoring (HBM) is an effective tool to assess human exposure to environmental pollutants, but comparable HBM data in Europe are lacking. In order to expedite harmonization of HBM studies on a European scale, the twin projects COPHES (Consortium to Perform Human Biomonitoring on a European Scale) and DEMOCOPHES (Demonstration of a study to Coordinate and Perform Human Biomonitoring on a European Scale) were formed, comprising 35 partners from 27 European countries. In COPHES a research scheme and guidelines were developed to exemplarily measure in a pilot study mercury in hair, cadmium, cotinine and several phthalate metabolites in urine of 6-11year old children and their mothers in an urban and a rural region. Seventeen European countries simultaneously conducted this cross-sectional DEMOCOPHES feasibility study. The German study population was taken in the city of Bochum and in the Higher Sauerland District, comprising 120 mother-child pairs. In the present paper features of the study implementation are presented. German exposure concentrations of the pollutants are reported and compared with European average concentrations from DEMOCOPHES and with those measured in the representative German Environmental Survey (GerES IV). German DEMOCOPHES concentrations for mercury and cotinine were lower than the European average. However, 47% of the children were still exposed to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) outside their home, which gives further potential for enhancing protection of children from ETS. Compared with samples from the other European countries German participating children had lower concentrations of the phthalate metabolites MEP and of the sum of 3 DEHP-metabolites (MEHP, 5OH-MEHP and 5oxo-MEHP), about the same concentrations of the phthalate metabolites MBzP and MiBP and higher concentrations of the phthalate metabolite MnBP. 2.5% of the German children had concentrations of the sum of 4 DEHP-metabolites and 4.2% had concentrations of Mn

Sensitive LC-MS/MS Method for the Simultaneous Determination of Bendamustine and its Active Metabolite, γ-Hydroxybendamustine in Small Volume Mice and Dog Plasma and its Application to a Pharmacokinetic Study in Mice and Dogs.

PubMed

Chandrashekar, Devaraj V; Suresh, Ponnayyan S; Kumar, Rajnish; Bhamidipati, Ravi Kanth; Mullangi, Ramesh; Richter, Wolfgang; Srinivas, Nuggehally R

2017-09-01

A highly sensitive, specific and rapid LC-ESI-MS/MS method has been developed and validated for the simultaneous quantification of bendamustine (BM) and γ-hydroxybendamustine (HBM) in small volume (20 µL) mice and dog plasma using phenacetin as an internal standard (IS) as per regulatory guidelines. Both the analytes and IS were extracted from mice and dog plasma using a liquid-liquid extraction method. Chromatography was achieved on Atlantis dC 18 column using an isocratic mobile phase (0.2% formic acid:acetonitrile, 25:75) at a flow rate of 0.40 mL/min. The total chromatographic run time was 3.0 min and the elution of BM, HBM and IS occurred at ~1.2, 1.2 and 2.0 min, respectively. A linear response function was established 0.11-518 ng/mL for both the analytes in mice and dog plasma. The intra- and inter-day accuracy and precisions were in the range of 3.46-12.9 and 3.63-8.23%; 1.15-9.00 and 7.86-9.49% for BM and HBM, respectively in mice plasma and 2.15-6.49 and 1.73-13.1%; 4.35-13.9 and 4.33-10.5% for BM and HBM, respectively in dog plasma. This novel method has been applied to a pharmacokinetic study in mice and dogs. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Nondestructive estimation of growth year in ginseng cultivars using the means of mathematical modeling on the basis of allometry.

PubMed

Cheng, Chunsong; Yuan, Qingxi; Zhou, Hua; Huang, Luqi

2016-02-01

Growth-year authentication has extraordinary significance for plant growth, structure and development research, and has a wide range of applications in value assessment of economic crops. Panax ginseng is the most commonly used medicinal plant in Asian countries. The fix number of growth-year is an important quality evaluation which is difficult to be obtained accurately in current technical conditions. Preliminary authentication theory for growth-year has been described in previous studies using a short-lived perennial medicinal plant (Paeonia lactiflora pall.) as the research material. In this research, we focused on the growth-year estimation in ginseng cultivars, and attempt to explore the age estimation method for vascular plants according to mathematical simulation of the root structure development. Micro data was obtained from 204 individuals of 3 different kinds of ginseng cultivars, which have a series of gradient age and a clear growth record. Outer diameter of the vascular cambium (b) and the radius of cross section (r) were measured with ordinary stereo microscope. We further designed and established two different kinds of authentication model based on the taproot structure development for growth year authentication (P =β*M-α and M = K*X1 (a) (1) X2 (a) (2) ). Moreover, the models were applied to identify the growth year of ginseng without damage using Micro-CT or DEI reconstruction. A potential method, have been recently described, the age of ginseng can be analyzed by telomere length and telomerase activity. However, we found that there are different results indicated in other species. We concluded that microscopic methods perceived currently were provided a more effective means for growth-year authentication. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Stages in third molar development and eruption to estimate the 18-year threshold Malay juvenile.

PubMed

Mohd Yusof, Mohd Yusmiaidil Putera; Cauwels, Rita; Martens, Luc

2015-10-01

Age 18 years is considered as the age of majority by most countries. To ascertain the age of interest, both third molar development (TMD) and eruption (TME) staging scores are beneficial without needing multiple imaging modalities. This study aimed to assess the chronological course of TMD and TME in a Malay sub-adult population and evaluate predictions when specific stage(s) of TMD and TME have been attained that are pertinent to the age group of interest (<18 years or ≥18 years). A sample of 714 digital panoramic images for subjects stratified by age between 14.1 and 23.9 years was retrospectively collected. The techniques described by Gleiser and Hunt (modified by Kohler) and Olze were employed to stage TMD and TME, respectively. A binary logistic regression was performed to predict the 18-year threshold with staging score as predictors. Stages 4-6 (TMD) and A-B (TME) for males and stages 4 (TMD) and A (TME) for females were found to discriminate the <18-year group. For both genders, stages 9-10 (TMD) and D (TME) can be used as reference stages to estimate whether a subject is likely to be ≥18 years, with 94.74-100% and 85.88-96.38% correct predictions, respectively. Stages 4 (TMD) and A (TME) can also be used to identify juveniles (<18 years) with a high degree of correct predictions, 100%. The juvenility of an individual is easily anticipated by using the specific staging scores of both third molar variables (TMD and TME) without complex calculations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of work-related cancers in Taiwan-Estimation with QALY (quality-adjusted life year) and healthcare costs.

PubMed

Lee, Lukas Jyuhn-Hsiarn; Lin, Cheng-Kuan; Hung, Mei-Chuan; Wang, Jung-Der

2016-12-01

This study estimates the annual numbers of eight work-related cancers, total losses of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and lifetime healthcare expenditures that possibly could be saved by improving occupational health in Taiwan. Three databases were interlinked: the Taiwan Cancer Registry, the National Mortality Registry, and the National Health Insurance Research Database. Annual numbers of work-related cancers were estimated based on attributable fractions (AFs) abstracted from a literature review. The survival functions for eight cancers were estimated and extrapolated to lifetime using a semi-parametric method. A convenience sample of 8846 measurements of patients' quality of life with EQ-5D was collected for utility values and multiplied by survival functions to estimate quality-adjusted life expectancies (QALEs). The loss-of-QALE was obtained by subtracting the QALE of cancer from age- and sex-matched referents simulated from national vital statistics. The lifetime healthcare expenditures were estimated by multiplying the survival probability with mean monthly costs paid by the National Health Insurance for cancer diagnosis and treatment and summing this for the expected lifetime. A total of 3010 males and 726 females with eight work-related cancers were estimated in 2010. Among them, lung cancer ranked first in terms of QALY loss, with an annual total loss-of-QALE of 28,463 QALYs and total lifetime healthcare expenditures of US$36.6 million. Successful prevention of eight work-related cancers would not only avoid the occurrence of 3736 cases of cancer, but would also save more than US$70 million in healthcare costs and 46,750 QALYs for the Taiwan society in 2010.

Estimating The Effect of Biofuel on Land Cover Change Using Multi-Year Modis Land Cover Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Singh, Nagendra; Bhaduri, Budhendra L

2010-01-01

There has been a growing debate on the effects of the increase in demands of biofuels on land use land cover (LULC) change with apprehension in some quarters that the growing demand for bioenergy as a clean fuel will result in widespread direct and indirect LULC change. However estimating both direct and indirect LULC change is challenging and will require development of accurate high frequency, high resolution (temporal and spatial) land use land cover data as well as new LULC models which can be used to locate, quantify and predict these changes. To assess whether the demand for biofuel hasmore » caused significant LULC we used MODIS land cover data (MCD12Q1) from 2001 to 2008 along with cropland data layer (CDL) to estimate cropland and grassland changes in United States for the years 2002-2008 as well as its correlation with biofuel growth.« less

Effectiveness of breastfeeding education on the weight of child and self-efficacy of mothers – 2011

PubMed Central

Kamran, Aziz; Shrifirad, Gholamreza; Mirkarimi, Seyed Kamal; Farahani, Abbas

2012-01-01

Background: Breastfeeding is the most natural and essential way for feeding newborn babies. This is an ideal approach for physical and emotional development of babies, as well as for the recovery of mothers. This study was aimed to determine the effect of breastfeeding education based on the health belief model (HBM) toward primiparous women. Materials and Methods: In a case–control group, quasi-experimental study, 88 subjects were allocated in control and experimental groups. Subjects who were assigned to the experimental group were provided a program consisting of group education based on HBM during their prenatal period. Instrument for data gathering was made by the researchers and standard questionnaire from Dennis and Faux for Breastfeeding Self-efficacy Scale (BSES). Baseline interviews were conducted before delivery and follow-up visits were conducted after 30 days and at the fourth month after delivery. Data were analyzed using SPSS (version 16) with c2, independent sample t-tests, and paired t-test. Results: Mean age of pregnant women who participated in the study was 22 ± 3.29 years. After the program, the experimental group had significantly better scores in terms of self-efficacy, knowledge, and attitude scores statistically. In the fourth month, the mean of child weight in the experimental group was significantly higher than that of the control group (P=0.001) and exclusive breastfeeding was significantly higher than in the control group (P=0.007). Conclusion: Prenatal education in this study based on HBM was successful, and knowledge, attitude, self-efficacy, and related indicators improved. The necessity of producing standard education package and education of pregnant mothers, especially in their first pregnancy, by health professionals is perceived. PMID:23555114

Inter- and intra-individual variation in urinary biomarker concentrations over a 6-day sampling period. Part 1: metals.

PubMed

Smolders, Roel; Koch, Holger M; Moos, Rebecca K; Cocker, John; Jones, Kate; Warren, Nick; Levy, Len; Bevan, Ruth; Hays, Sean M; Aylward, Lesa L

2014-12-01

The aim of the current HBM-study is to further the understanding of the impact of inter- and intra-individual variability in HBM surveys as it may have implications for the design and interpretation of the study outcomes. As spot samples only provide a snapshot in time of the concentrations of chemicals in an individual, it remains unclear to what extent intra-individual variability plays a role in the overall variability of population-wide HBM surveys. The current paper describes the results of an intensive biomonitoring study, in which all individual urine samples of 8 individuals were collected over a 6-day sampling period (a total of 352 unique samples). By analyzing different metals (As, Cd, Mn, Ni) in each individual sample, inter- and intra-individual variability for these four metals could be determined, and the relationships between exposure, internal dose, and sampling protocol assessed. Although the range of biomarker values for different metals was well within the normal range reported in large-scale population surveys, large intra-individual differences over a 6-day period could also be observed. Typically, measured biomarker values span at least an order of magnitude within an individual, and more if specific exposure episodes could be identified. Fish consumption for example caused a twenty- to thirty-fold increase in urinary As-levels over a period of 2-6h. Intra-class correlation coefficients (ICC) were typically low for uncorrected biomarker values (between 0.104 and 0.460 for the 4 metals), but improved when corrected for creatinine or specific gravity (SG). The results show that even though urine is a preferred matrix for HBM studies, there are certain methodological issues that need to be taken into account in the interpretation of urinary biomarker data, related to the intrinsic variability of the urination process itself, the relationship between exposure events and biomarker quantification, and the timing of sampling. When setting up HBM

Quantification for complex assessment: uncertainty estimation in final year project thesis assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Ho Sung

2013-12-01

A quantitative method for estimating an expected uncertainty (reliability and validity) in assessment results arising from the relativity between four variables, viz examiner's expertise, examinee's expertise achieved, assessment task difficulty and examinee's performance, was developed for the complex assessment applicable to final year project thesis assessment including peer assessment. A guide map can be generated by the method for finding expected uncertainties prior to the assessment implementation with a given set of variables. It employs a scale for visualisation of expertise levels, derivation of which is based on quantified clarities of mental images for levels of the examiner's expertise and the examinee's expertise achieved. To identify the relevant expertise areas that depend on the complexity in assessment format, a graphical continuum model was developed. The continuum model consists of assessment task, assessment standards and criterion for the transition towards the complex assessment owing to the relativity between implicitness and explicitness and is capable of identifying areas of expertise required for scale development.

COSMIC MICROWAVE BACKGROUND POLARIZATION AND TEMPERATURE POWER SPECTRA ESTIMATION USING LINEAR COMBINATION OF WMAP 5 YEAR MAPS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Samal, Pramoda Kumar; Jain, Pankaj; Saha, Rajib

We estimate cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization and temperature power spectra using Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) 5 year foreground contaminated maps. The power spectrum is estimated by using a model-independent method, which does not utilize directly the diffuse foreground templates nor the detector noise model. The method essentially consists of two steps: (1) removal of diffuse foregrounds contamination by making linear combination of individual maps in harmonic space and (2) cross-correlation of foreground cleaned maps to minimize detector noise bias. For the temperature power spectrum we also estimate and subtract residual unresolved point source contamination in the cross-power spectrummore » using the point source model provided by the WMAP science team. Our TT, TE, and EE power spectra are in good agreement with the published results of the WMAP science team. We perform detailed numerical simulations to test for bias in our procedure. We find that the bias is small in almost all cases. A negative bias at low l in TT power spectrum has been pointed out in an earlier publication. We find that the bias-corrected quadrupole power (l(l + 1)C{sub l} /2{pi}) is 532 {mu}K{sup 2}, approximately 2.5 times the estimate (213.4 {mu}K{sup 2}) made by the WMAP team.« less

Estimated Loads of Suspended Sediment and Selected Trace Elements Transported through Milltown Reservoir in the Upper Clark Fork Basin, Montana, Water Years 2004-07

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lambing, John H.; Sando, Steven K.

2008-01-01

The purpose of this report is to present estimated daily and annual loads of suspended sediment and selected trace elements for water years 2004-07 at two sites upstream and one site downstream from Milltown Reservoir. Milltown Reservoir is a National Priorities List Superfund site in the upper Clark Fork basin of western Montana where sediments enriched in trace elements from historical mining and ore processing have been deposited since the construction of Milltown Dam in 1907. The estimated loads were used to quantify annual net gains and losses (mass balance) of suspended sediment and trace elements within Milltown Reservoir before and after June 1, 2006, which was the start of Stage 1 of a permanent drawdown of the reservoir in preparation for removal of Milltown Dam. This study was done in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Daily loads of suspended sediment were estimated for water years 2004-07 by using either high-frequency sampling as part of daily sediment monitoring or regression equations relating suspended-sediment discharge to streamflow. Daily loads of unfiltered-recoverable arsenic, cadmium, copper, iron, lead, manganese, and zinc were estimated by using regression equations relating trace-element discharge to suspended-sediment discharge. Regression equations were developed from data for eriodic water-quality samples collected during water years 2004-07. The equations were applied to daily records of either streamflow or suspended-sediment discharge to produce estimated daily loads. Variations in daily suspended-sediment and trace-element loads generally coincided with variations in streamflow. For most of the period before June 1, 2006, differences in daily loads transported to and from Milltown Reservoir were minor or indicated small amounts of deposition; however, losses of suspended sediment and trace elements from the reservoir occurred during temporary drawdowns in July-August 2004 and October-December 2005. After the

Economics in "Global Health 2035": a sensitivity analysis of the value of a life year estimates.

PubMed

Chang, Angela Y; Robinson, Lisa A; Hammitt, James K; Resch, Stephen C

2017-06-01

In "Global health 2035: a world converging within a generation," The Lancet Commission on Investing in Health (CIH) adds the value of increased life expectancy to the value of growth in gross domestic product (GDP) when assessing national well-being. To value changes in life expectancy, the CIH relies on several strong assumptions to bridge gaps in the empirical research. It finds that the value of a life year (VLY) averages 2.3 times GDP per capita for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) assuming the changes in life expectancy they experienced from 2000 to 2011 are permanent. The CIH VLY estimate is based on a specific shift in population life expectancy and includes a 50 percent reduction for children ages 0 through 4. We investigate the sensitivity of this estimate to the underlying assumptions, including the effects of income, age, and life expectancy, and the sequencing of the calculations. We find that reasonable alternative assumptions regarding the effects of income, age, and life expectancy may reduce the VLY estimates to 0.2 to 2.1 times GDP per capita for LMICs. Removing the reduction for young children increases the VLY, while reversing the sequencing of the calculations reduces the VLY. Because the VLY is sensitive to the underlying assumptions, analysts interested in applying this approach elsewhere must tailor the estimates to the impacts of the intervention and the characteristics of the affected population. Analysts should test the sensitivity of their conclusions to reasonable alternative assumptions. More work is needed to investigate options for improving the approach.

[Health promotion. Instrument development for the application of the theory of planned behavior].

PubMed

Lee, Y O

1993-01-01

The purpose of this article is to describe operationalization of the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). The quest to understand determinants of health behaviors has intensified as evidence accumulates concerning the impact of personal behavior on health. The majority of theory-based research has used the Health Belief Model(HBM). The HBM components have had limited success in explaining health-related behaviors. There are several advantages of the TPB over the HBM. TPB is an expansion of the Theory of Reasoned Action(TRA) with the addition of the construct, perceived behavioral control. The revised model has been shown to yield greater explanatory power than the original TRA for goal-directed behaviors. The process of TPB instrument development was described, using example form the study of smoking cessation behavior in military smokers. It was followed by a discussion of reliability and validity issues in operationalizing the TPB. The TPB is a useful model for understanding and predicting health-related behaviors when carefully operationalized. The model holds promise in the development of prescriptive nursing approaches.

The Health Belief Model as an Explanatory Framework in Communication Research: Exploring Parallel, Serial, and Moderated Mediation

PubMed Central

Jones, Christina L.; Jensen, Jakob D.; Scherr, Courtney L.; Brown, Natasha R.; Christy, Katheryn; Weaver, Jeremy

2015-01-01

The Health Belief Model (HBM) posits that messages will achieve optimal behavior change if they successfully target perceived barriers, benefits, self-efficacy, and threat. While the model seems to be an ideal explanatory framework for communication research, theoretical limitations have limited its use in the field. Notably, variable ordering is currently undefined in the HBM. Thus, it is unclear whether constructs mediate relationships comparably (parallel mediation), in sequence (serial mediation), or in tandem with a moderator (moderated mediation). To investigate variable ordering, adults (N = 1,377) completed a survey in the aftermath of an 8-month flu vaccine campaign grounded in the HBM. Exposure to the campaign was positively related to vaccination behavior. Statistical evaluation supported a model where the indirect effect of exposure on behavior through perceived barriers and threat was moderated by self-efficacy (moderated mediation). Perceived barriers and benefits also formed a serial mediation chain. The results indicate that variable ordering in the Health Belief Model may be complex, may help to explain conflicting results of the past, and may be a good focus for future research. PMID:25010519

Cariogenicity and acidogenicity of human milk, plain and sweetened bovine milk: an in vitro study.

PubMed

Prabhakar, A R; Kurthukoti, Ameet J; Gupta, Pranjali

2010-01-01

The objective of the present study was to determine the acidogenicity and cariogenicity of human breast milk and plain and sweetened packaged bovine milk. First all milk specimens were inoculated with a cariogenic strain of Streptococcus mutans (SM). The culture pH and number of colony forming units (cfus) was assessed. Second, the buffer capacity of all milk specimens was evaluated by mixing with acid. Finally, enamel windows were created on extracted primary maxillary incisors and colonized with SM. Enamel demineralization and caries progression were assessed visually, histologically, and radiographically at the end of twelve weeks. Plain and sweetened packaged bovine milk (BM) supported greater bacterial growth and caused more fermentation than human breast milk (HBM). The buffer capacity values for plain and sweetened bovine milk were highest; HBM, however had poor buffering capacity. The progression of the carious lesions into the dentin was most severe for the sweetened bovine milk. HBM and plain bovine milk are relatively cariogenic in an in vitro caries model in the absence of saliva. However, supplementation with sugar exponentially enhances the cariogenic potential of the natural milk.

[Monograph for N-Methyl-pyrrolidone (NMP) and human biomonitoring values for the metabolites 5-Hydroxy-NMP and 2-Hydroxy-N-methylsuccinimide].

PubMed

2015-10-01

1-Methyl-pyrrolidone (NMP) is used as a solvent in many technical applications. The general population may be exposed to NMP from the use as ingredient in paint and graffiti remover, indoors also from use in paints and carpeting. Because of developmental toxic effects, the use of NMP in consumer products in the EU is regulated. The developmental effects accompanied by weak maternally toxic effects in animal experiments are considered as the critical effects by the German HBM Commission. Based on these effects, HBM-I values of 10 mg/l urine for children and of 15 mg/l for adults, respectively, were derived for the metabolites 5-Hydroxy-NMP and 2-Hydroxy-N-methylsuccinimide. HBM-II-values were set to 30 mg/l urine for children and 50 mg/l for adults, respectively. Because of similar effects of the structural analogue 1-ethyl-2-pyrrolidone (NEP), the possible mixed exposure to both compounds has to be taken into account when evaluating the total burden.

Regional-level estimation of expected years of life lost attributable to overweight and obesity among Mexican adults.

PubMed

Murillo-Zamora, Efrén; García-Ceballos, Raúl; Delgado-Enciso, Iván; Garza-Guajardo, Raquel; Barboza-Quintana, Oralia; Rodríguez-Sánchez, Irám P; Mendoza-Cano, Oliver

2016-01-01

Excess body weight has become a major public health problem worldwide, and the burden of overweight and obesity was calculated in this work from a health economics perspective. To estimate the burden of disease attributable to overweight and obesity among males and females aged 20 years and older using years of life lost (YLL) and age-standardized YLL rates (ASYLL), and to rank the leading causes of premature death. A cross-sectional study took place (2010-2014) and 6,054 deaths were analyzed. Thirteen basic causes of death associated with overweight or obesity were included. The population attributable fraction (PAF), YLL, and ASYLL were calculated. The overall burden attributable to overweight and obesity was 36,087 YLL, and the estimated ASYLL per 10,000 persons was 1,098 and 1,029 in males and females, respectively. Type 2 diabetes mellitus was the main cause of premature death (males, 968 ASYLL; females, 772 ASYLL). Overweight and obesity are major risk factors of chronic diseases that are main causes of premature death in the study population. Strategies for preventing overweight and obesity may decrease the incidence and mortality associated with these non-communicable diseases. ASYLL seems to be an indicator that is particularly well adapted to decision-making in public health.

Techniques for estimating 7-day, 10-year low-flow characteristics for ungaged sites on streams in Mississippi

USGS Publications Warehouse

Telis, Pamela A.

1992-01-01

Mississippi State water laws require that the 7-day, 10-year low-flow characteristic (7Q10) of streams be used as a criterion for issuing wastedischarge permits to dischargers to streams and for limiting withdrawals of water from streams. This report presents techniques for estimating the 7Q10 for ungaged sites on streams in Mississippi based on the availability of baseflow discharge measurements at the site, location of nearby gaged sites on the same stream, and drainage area of the ungaged site. These techniques may be used to estimate the 7Q10 at sites on natural, unregulated or partially regulated, and non-tidal streams. Low-flow characteristics for streams in the Mississippi River alluvial plain were not estimated because the annual lowflow data exhibit decreasing trends with time. Also presented are estimates of the 7Q10 for 493 gaged sites on Mississippi streams.Techniques for estimating the 7Q10 have been developed for ungaged sites with base-flow discharge measurements, for ungaged sites on gaged streams, and for ungaged sites on ungaged streams. For an ungaged site with one or more base-flow discharge measurements, base-flow discharge data at the ungaged site are related to concurrent discharge data at a nearby gaged site. For ungaged sites on gaged streams, several methods of transferring the 7Q10 from a gaged site to an ungaged site were developed; the resulting 7Q10 values are based on drainage area prorations for the sites. For ungaged sites on ungaged streams, the 7Q10 is estimated from a map developed for. this study that shows the unit 7Q10 (7Q10 per square mile of drainage area) for ungaged basins in the State. The mapped values were estimated from the unit 7Q10 determined for nearby gaged basins, adjusted on the basis of the geology and topography of the ungaged basins.

Utilization of year round data in the estimation of genetic parameters for internal parasite resistance traits in Dorper sheep

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect on the estimates of heritability and permanent environmental effects as a proportion of phenotypic variance when year round records are used. Records from 1,008 Dorper sheep in a private South African flock comprised 17,711 FAMACHA scores, 3,758...

Reduction of microhemorrhages in the spinal cord of symptomatic ALS mice after intravenous human bone marrow stem cell transplantation accompanies repair of the blood-spinal cord barrier.

PubMed

Eve, David J; Steiner, George; Mahendrasah, Ajay; Sanberg, Paul R; Kurien, Crupa; Thomson, Avery; Borlongan, Cesar V; Garbuzova-Davis, Svitlana

2018-02-13

Blood-spinal cord barrier (BSCB) alterations, including capillary rupture, have been demonstrated in animal models of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and ALS patients. To date, treatment to restore BSCB in ALS is underexplored. Here, we evaluated whether intravenous transplantation of human bone marrow CD34 + (hBM34 + ) cells into symptomatic ALS mice leads to restoration of capillary integrity in the spinal cord as determined by detection of microhemorrhages. Three different doses of hBM34 + cells (5 × 10 4 , 5 × 10 5 or 1 × 10 6 ) or media were intravenously injected into symptomatic G93A SOD1 mice at 13 weeks of age. Microhemorrhages were determined in the cervical and lumbar spinal cords of mice at 4 weeks post-treatment, as revealed by Perls' Prussian blue staining for ferric iron. Numerous microhemorrhages were observed in the gray and white matter of the spinal cords in media-treated mice, with a greater number of capillary ruptures within the ventral horn of both segments. In cell-treated mice, microhemorrhage numbers in the cervical and lumbar spinal cords were inversely related to administered cell doses. In particular, the pervasive microvascular ruptures determined in the spinal cords in late symptomatic ALS mice were significantly decreased by the highest cell dose, suggestive of BSCB repair by grafted hBM34 + cells. The study results provide translational outcomes supporting transplantation of hBM34 + cells at an optimal dose as a potential therapeutic strategy for BSCB repair in ALS patients.

Comparison of the 2-, 25-, and 100-year recurrence interval floods computed from observed data with the 1995 urban flood-frequency estimating equations for Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Inman, Ernest J.

1997-01-01

Flood-frequency relations were computed for 28 urban stations, for 2-, 25-, and 100-year recurrence interval floods and the computations were compared to corresponding recurrence interval floods computed from the estimating equations from a 1995 investigation. Two stations were excluded from further comparisons or analyses because neither station had a significant flood during the period of observed record. The comparisons, based on the student's t-test statistics at the 0.05 level of significance, indicate that the mean residuals of the 25- and 100-year floods were negatively biased by 26.2 percent and 31.6 percent, respectively, at the 26 stations. However, the mean residuals of the 2-year floods were 2.5 percent lower than the mean of the 2-year floods computed from the equations, and were not significantly biased. The reason for this negative bias is that the period of observed record at the 26 stations was a relatively dry period. At 25 of the 26 stations, the two highest simulated peaks used to develop the estimating equations occurred many years before the observed record began. However, no attempt was made to adjust the estimating equations because higher peaks could occur after the period of observed record and an adjustment to the equations would cause an underestimation of design floods.

7 CFR 1435.301 - Annual estimates and quarterly re-estimates.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... CORPORATION, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE LOANS, PURCHASES, AND OTHER OPERATIONS SUGAR PROGRAM Flexible Marketing Allotments For Sugar § 1435.301 Annual estimates and quarterly re-estimates. (a) Not later than August 1... later than the beginning of each quarter of such crop year, the: (1) Quantity of sugar that will be...

7 CFR 1435.301 - Annual estimates and quarterly re-estimates.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... CORPORATION, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE LOANS, PURCHASES, AND OTHER OPERATIONS SUGAR PROGRAM Flexible Marketing Allotments For Sugar § 1435.301 Annual estimates and quarterly re-estimates. (a) Not later than August 1... later than the beginning of each quarter of such crop year, the: (1) Quantity of sugar that will be...

7 CFR 1435.301 - Annual estimates and quarterly re-estimates.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... CORPORATION, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE LOANS, PURCHASES, AND OTHER OPERATIONS SUGAR PROGRAM Flexible Marketing Allotments For Sugar § 1435.301 Annual estimates and quarterly re-estimates. (a) Not later than August 1... later than the beginning of each quarter of such crop year, the: (1) Quantity of sugar that will be...

7 CFR 1435.301 - Annual estimates and quarterly re-estimates.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... CORPORATION, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE LOANS, PURCHASES, AND OTHER OPERATIONS SUGAR PROGRAM Flexible Marketing Allotments For Sugar § 1435.301 Annual estimates and quarterly re-estimates. (a) Not later than August 1... later than the beginning of each quarter of such crop year, the: (1) Quantity of sugar that will be...

7 CFR 1435.301 - Annual estimates and quarterly re-estimates.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... CORPORATION, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE LOANS, PURCHASES, AND OTHER OPERATIONS SUGAR PROGRAM Flexible Marketing Allotments For Sugar § 1435.301 Annual estimates and quarterly re-estimates. (a) Not later than August 1... later than the beginning of each quarter of such crop year, the: (1) Quantity of sugar that will be...

Estimated disability-adjusted life years averted by long-term provision of long acting contraceptive methods in a Brazilian clinic.

PubMed

Bahamondes, Luis; Bottura, Bruna F; Bahamondes, M Valeria; Gonçalves, Mayara P; Correia, Vinicius M; Espejo-Arce, Ximena; Sousa, Maria H; Monteiro, Ilza; Fernandes, Arlete

2014-10-10

What is the contribution of the provision, at no cost for users, of long acting reversible contraceptive methods (LARC; copper intrauterine device [IUD], the levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system [LNG-IUS], contraceptive implants and depot-medroxyprogesterone [DMPA] injection) towards the disability-adjusted life years (DALY) averted through a Brazilian university-based clinic established over 30 years ago. Over the last 10 years of evaluation, provision of LARC methods and DMPA by the clinic are estimated to have contributed to DALY averted by between 37 and 60 maternal deaths, 315-424 child mortalities, 634-853 combined maternal morbidity and mortality and child mortality, and 1056-1412 unsafe abortions averted. LARC methods are associated with a high contraceptive effectiveness when compared with contraceptive methods which need frequent attention; perhaps because LARC methods are independent of individual or couple compliance. However, in general previous studies have evaluated contraceptive methods during clinical studies over a short period of time, or not more than 10 years. Furthermore, information regarding the estimation of the DALY averted is scarce. We reviewed 50 004 medical charts from women who consulted for the first time looking for a contraceptive method over the period from 2 January 1980 through 31 December 2012. Women who consulted at the Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, University of Campinas, Brazil were new users and users switching contraceptive, including the copper IUD (n = 13 826), the LNG-IUS (n = 1525), implants (n = 277) and DMPA (n = 9387). Estimation of the DALY averted included maternal morbidity and mortality, child mortality and unsafe abortions averted. We obtained 29 416 contraceptive segments of use including 25 009 contraceptive segments of use from 20 821 new users or switchers to any LARC method or DMPA with at least 1 year of follow-up. The mean (± SD) age of the women at first consultation ranged from 25

Source of parental reports of child height and weight during phone interviews and influence on obesity prevalence estimates among children aged 3-17 years.

PubMed

Skinner, Asheley Cockrell; Miles, Donna; Perrin, Eliana M; Coyne-Beasley, Tamera; Ford, Carol

2013-01-01

We compared parental reports of children's height and weight when the values were estimated vs. parent-measured to determine how these reports influence the estimated prevalence of childhood obesity. In the 2007 and 2008 North Carolina Child Health Assessment and Monitoring Program surveys, parents reported height and weight for children aged 3-17 years. When parents reported the values were not measured (by doctor, school, or home), they were asked to measure their child and were later called back. We categorized body mass index status using standard CDC definitions, and we used Chi-square tests and the Stuart-Maxwell test of marginal homogeneity to examine reporting differences. About 80% (n=509) of the 638 parents who reported an unmeasured height and/or weight participated in a callback and provided updated measures. Children originally classified as obese were subsequently classified as obese (67%), overweight (13%), and healthy weight (19%). An estimated 28% of younger children (<10 years of age) vs. 6% of older children (aged ≥10 years) were reclassified on callback. Having parents who guessed the height and weight of their children and then reported updated values did not significantly change the overall population estimates of obesity. Our findings demonstrate that using parent-reported height and weight values may be sufficient to provide reasonable estimates of obesity prevalence. Systematically asking the source of height and weight information may help improve how it is applied to research of the prevalence of childhood obesity when gold-standard measurements are not available.

Palila abundance estimates and trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Banko, Paul C.; Brink, Kevin W.; Camp, Richard

2014-01-01

The palila (Loxioides bailleui) population was surveyed annually during 1998−2014 on Mauna Kea Volcano to determine abundance, population trend, and spatial distribution. In the latest surveys, the 2013 population was estimated at 1,492−2,132 birds (point estimate: 1,799) and the 2014 population was estimated at 1,697−2,508 (point estimate: 2,070). Similar numbers of palila were detected during the first and subsequent counts within each year during 2012−2014, and there was no difference in their detection probability due to count sequence. This suggests that greater precision in population estimates can be achieved if future surveys include repeat visits. No palila were detected outside the core survey area in 2013 or 2014, suggesting that most if not all palila inhabit the western slope during the survey period. Since 2003, the size of the area containing all annual palila detections do not indicate a significant change among years, suggesting that the range of the species has remained stable; although this area represents only about 5% of its historical extent. During 1998−2003, palila numbers fluctuated moderately (coefficient of variation [CV] = 0.21). After peaking in 2003, population estimates declined steadily through 2011; since 2010, estimates have fluctuated moderately above the 2011 minimum (CV = 0.18). The average rate of decline during 1998−2014 was 167 birds per year with very strong statistical support for an overall declining trend in abundance. Over the 16-year monitoring period, the estimated rate of change equated to a 68% decline in the population.

Estimating the diversity of dinosaurs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Steve C.; Dodson, Peter

2006-09-01

Despite current interest in estimating the diversity of fossil and extant groups, little effort has been devoted to estimating the diversity of dinosaurs. Here we estimate the diversity of nonavian dinosaurs at ≈1,850 genera, including those that remain to be discovered. With 527 genera currently described, at least 71% of dinosaur genera thus remain unknown. Although known diversity declined in the last stage of the Cretaceous, estimated diversity was steady, suggesting that dinosaurs as a whole were not in decline in the 10 million years before their ultimate extinction. We also show that known diversity is biased by the availability of fossiliferous rock outcrop. Finally, by using a logistic model, we predict that 75% of discoverable genera will be known within 60-100 years and 90% within 100-140 years. Because of nonrandom factors affecting the process of fossil discovery (which preclude the possibility of computing realistic confidence bounds), our estimate of diversity is likely to be a lower bound.

Health beliefs affect the correct replacement of daily disposable contact lenses: Predicting compliance with the Health Belief Model and the Theory of Planned Behaviour.

PubMed

Livi, Stefano; Zeri, Fabrizio; Baroni, Rossella

2017-02-01

To assess the compliance of Daily Disposable Contact Lenses (DDCLs) wearers with replacing lenses at a manufacturer-recommended replacement frequency. To evaluate the ability of two different Health Behavioural Theories (HBT), The Health Belief Model (HBM) and The Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB), in predicting compliance. A multi-centre survey was conducted using a questionnaire completed anonymously by contact lens wearers during the purchase of DDCLs. Three hundred and fifty-four questionnaires were returned. The survey comprised 58.5% females and 41.5% males (mean age 34±12years). Twenty-three percent of respondents were non-compliant with manufacturer-recommended replacement frequency (re-using DDCLs at least once). The main reason for re-using DDCLs was "to save money" (35%). Predictions of compliance behaviour (past behaviour or future intentions) on the basis of the two HBT was investigated through logistic regression analysis: both TPB factors (subjective norms and perceived behavioural control) were significant (p<0.01); HBM was less predictive with only the severity (past behaviour and future intentions) and perceived benefit (only for past behaviour) as significant factors (p<0.05). Non-compliance with DDCLs replacement is widespread, affecting 1 out of 4 Italian wearers. Results from the TPB model show that the involvement of persons socially close to the wearers (subjective norms) and the improvement of the procedure of behavioural control of daily replacement (behavioural control) are of paramount importance in improving compliance. With reference to the HBM, it is important to warn DDCLs wearers of the severity of a contact-lens-related eye infection, and to underline the possibility of its prevention. Copyright © 2016 British Contact Lens Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating cause of adult (15+ years) death using InterVA-4 in a rural district of southern Ghana.

PubMed

Awini, Elizabeth; Sarpong, Doris; Adjei, Alexander; Manyeh, Alfred Kwesi; Amu, Alberta; Akweongo, Patricia; Adongo, Philip; Kukula, Vida; Odonkor, Gabriel; Narh, Solomon; Gyapong, Margaret

2014-01-01

Data needed to estimate causes of death and the pattern of these deaths are scarce in sub-Saharan Africa. Such data are very important for targeting, monitoring, and evaluating health interventions. To estimate the mortality rate and determine causes of death among adults (aged 15 years and older) in a rural district of southern Ghana, using the InterVA-4 model. Data used were generated from verbal autopsies conducted for registered adult members of the Dodowa Health and Demographic Surveillance System who died between 2006 and 2010. The InterVA-4 model was used to assign the cause of death. Overall, the mortality rate for the period under review was 7.5/1,000 person-years (py) for the general population and 10.4/1,000 py for those aged 15 and older. The leading cause of death was communicable diseases (CDs), with a malaria-specific mortality rate of 1.06/1,000 py. Pulmonary tuberculosis (TB)-specific mortality rate was the next highest (1.01/1,000 py). HIV/AIDS attributed deaths were lower among males than females. Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) contributed to 28.3% of the deaths with cause-specific mortality rate of 2.93/1,000 py. Stroke topped the list with cause-specific mortality rate of 0.69/1,000 py. As expected, young males (15-49 years) contributed to more road traffic accident (RTA) deaths; they had a lower RTA cause-specific mortality rate than older males (50-64 years). Data indicate that CDs (e.g. malaria and TB) remain the major cause of death with NCDs (e.g. stroke) following closely behind. Verbal autopsy data can provide the causes of mortality in poorly resourced settings where access to timely and accurate data is scarce.

An estimation of the clinical mastitis incidence per 100 cows per year based on routinely collected herd data.

PubMed

Santman-Berends, I M G A; Lam, T J G M; Keurentjes, J; van Schaik, G

2015-10-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate whether it was possible to (1) estimate the clinical mastitis incidence rate (CMI) for all Dutch dairy herds and (2) to detect farms with a high CMI based on routinely collected herd data. For this study, 240 dairy farms with a conventional milking system that participated in the milk recording program every 4 to 6 wk were randomly selected and agreed to participate. From the initial 240 herds, data of clinical mastitis (CM) registrations and routinely collected herd data of 227 herds were complete and could be used for analysis. Routinely collected herd data consisted of identification and registration records, antimicrobial usage, test-day records from the milk recording program, bulk tank milk (BTM) somatic cell count data and results of diagnostic tests on BTM samples. For each of the 227 herds, the CMI per 100 cows per year was calculated per quarter of the year and was combined with the available herd data. Two models were developed to predict the CMI for all dairy herds and to detect individual herds that belonged to the 25% herds with the highest CMI. Records of 156 (67%) herds were used for development of the models and the remaining 71 (33%) were used for validation. The model that estimated the CMI in all herds consisted of 11 explanatory variables. The observed and predicted averages of the validation herds were not significantly different. The model estimated a CMI per 100 cows per year of 32.5 cases (95% confidence interval=30.2-34.8), whereas the farmers registered 33.4 cases (95% confidence interval=29.5-37.4). The model that aimed at detecting individual herds with a high CMI contained 6 explanatory variables and could correctly classify 77% of all validation herds at the quarter-year level. The most important variables in the model were antibiotic usage for treating CM and BTM somatic cell count. In conclusion, models based on routinely collected herd data gave an accurate prediction of CMI for all Dutch dairy

Randomized comparison of group versus individual educational interventions for pregnant women to reduce their secondhand smoke exposure.

PubMed

Chi, Ying-Chen; Sha, Feng; Yip, Paul S F; Chen, Jiunn-Liang; Chen, Ying-Yeh

2016-10-01

Secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure is deleterious to pregnant women and their unborn children. The prevalence of SHS exposure among pregnant women is particularly high in many Asian countries where approximately half of the male population smokes. We aim to investigate the efficacy of an intervention based on an expanded Health Belief Model (HBM) incorporating self-efficacy to educate and empower pregnant women to reduce their SHS exposure. We conducted a 3-arm randomized controlled trial (N = 50 in each arm) comparing the effectiveness of group-based and individual-based interventions with a treatment-as-usual group. A questionnaire tapping into constructs of the expanded HBM was administered at baseline and 1- and 2-month follow-ups. Exhaled carbon monoxide was used to determine SHS exposure (>=6 ppm). ANOVA was used to compare HBM construct scores, self-efficacy for rejecting SHS exposure, and SHS rejection behavior among the 3 groups at baseline and the 1- and 2-month follow-ups, while logistic regression analysis was used to compare the risk of exposure to SHS at each follow-up. The group-based intervention significantly improved health beliefs, self-efficacy, and self-reported rejection behaviors. The individual-based intervention effect was limited to some health belief constructs and SHS rejection behaviors. Both group- and individual-based interventions showed significant reductions in SHS exposure 2 months after the intervention (P < 0.0001). Group-based educational interventions based on the HBM are particularly effective in training pregnant women to avoid and refuse exposure to SHS. Policy makers should consider offering group-delivered programs to educate and empower pregnant women to reduce their SHS exposure.

Application of the health belief model and social cognitive theory for osteoporosis preventive nutritional behaviors in a sample of Iranian women

PubMed Central

Jeihooni, Ali Khani; Hidarnia, Alireza; Kaveh, Mohammad Hossein; Hajizadeh, Ebrahim; Askari, Alireza

2016-01-01

Background: Osteoporosis is the most common metabolic bone disease. The purpose of this study is to investigate the health belief model (HBM) and social cognitive theory (SCT) for osteoporosis preventive nutritional behaviors in women. Materials and Methods: In this quasi-experimental study, 120 patients who were women and registered under the health centers in Fasa City, Fars Province, Iran were selected. A questionnaire consisting of HBM constructs and the constructs of self-regulation and social support from SCT was used to measure nutrition performance. Bone mineral density was recorded at the lumbar spine and femur. The intervention for the experimental group included 10 educational sessions of 55-60 min of speech, group discussion, questions and answers, as well as posters and educational pamphlets, film screenings, and PowerPoint displays. Data were analyzed using SPSS 19 via Chi-square test, independent t-test, and repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA) at a significance level of 0.05. Results: After intervention, the experimental group showed a significant increase in the HBM constructs, self-regulation, social support, and nutrition performance, compared to the control group. Six months after the intervention, the value of lumbar spine bone mineral density (BMD) T-score increased to 0.127 in the experimental group, while it reduced to −0.043 in the control group. The value of the hip BMD T-score increased to 0.125 in the intervention group, but it decreased to −0.028 in the control group. Conclusions: This study showed the effectiveness of HBM and constructs of self-regulation and social support on adoption of nutrition behaviors and increase in the bone density to prevent osteoporosis. PMID:27095985

Health Blief Model-based intervention to improve nutritional behavior among elderly women.

PubMed

Iranagh, Jamileh Amirzadeh; Rahman, Hejar Abdul; Motalebi, Seyedeh Ameneh

2016-06-01

Nutrition is a determinant factor of health in elderly people. Independent living in elderly people can be maintained or enhanced by improvement of nutritional behavior. Hence, the present study was conducted to determine the impact of Health Belief Model (HBM)-based intervention on the nutritional behavior of elderly women. Cluster-random sampling was used to assess the sample of this clinical trial study. The participants of this study attended a 12-week nutrition education program consisting of two (2) sessions per week. There was also a follow-up for another three (3) months. Smart PLS 3.5 and SPSS 19 were used for structural equation modeling, determination of model fitness, and hypotheses testing. The findings indicate that intervention had a significant effect on knowledge improvement as well as the behavior of elderly women. The model explained 5 to 70% of the variance in nutritional behavior. In addition, nutritional behavior was positively affected by the HBM constructs comprised of perceived susceptibility, self-efficacy, perceived benefits, and barriers after the intervention program. The results of this study show that HBM-based educational intervention has a significant effect in improving nutritional knowledge and behavior among elderly women.

Mercury in Children: Current State on Exposure through Human Biomonitoring Studies

PubMed Central

Ruggieri, Flavia; Majorani, Costanza; Domanico, Francesco; Alimonti, Alessandro

2017-01-01

Mercury (Hg) in children has multiple exposure sources and the toxicity of Hg compounds depends on exposure routes, dose, timing of exposure, and developmental stage (be it prenatal or postnatal). Over the last decades, Hg was widely recognized as a threat to the children’s health and there have been acknowledgements at the international level of the need of a global policy intervention—like the Minamata treaty—aimed at reducing or preventing Hg exposure and protecting the child health. National human biomonitoring (HBM) data has demonstrated that low levels of exposure of Hg are still an important health concern for children, which no one country can solve alone. Although independent HBM surveys have provided the basis for the achievements of exposure mitigation in specific contexts, a new paradigm for a coordinated global monitoring of children’s exposure, aimed at a reliable decision-making tool at global level is yet a great challenge for the next future. The objective of the present review is to describe current HBM studies on Hg exposure in children, taking into account the potential pathways of Hg exposure and the actual Hg exposure levels assessed by different biomarkers. PMID:28498344

Health beliefs and breast self-examination in a sample of Turkish women academicians in a university.

PubMed

Ceber, Esin; Yücel, Ummahan; Mermer, Gülengül; Ozentürk, Gülsün

2009-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate health beliefs and BSE behavior of female academicians in a Turkish university. This descriptive study was conducted at various faculties located in Ege University, Izmir, Turkey, in 2005. The sample consisted of 224 female academicians. Data were collected using a self-administered questionnaire and the Turkish version of Champion's Health Belief Model Scales (HBM). Descriptive statistics, t-test and Mann Whitney u analysis were conducted. The percentage of participants who regularly performed BSE was 27.7 %. Benefits and health motivation related to BSE ranked either first or second, along with confidence. Perceived barriers to BSE had the lowest item mean subscale score in academicians. Single academicians perceived susceptibility and seriousness higher than their married counterparts. Family history of breast cancer of participants affected their health beliefs subscale. BSE performance among participants was more likely in women academicians who exhibited higher confidence and those who perceived fewer barriers related to BSE performance, complying with the conceptual structure of the HBM. Therefore, it is recommended that in order to increase the rates of regular breast cancer screening, mass health protective programs based on the HBM should be executed for women.

Readability, Suitability and Health Content Assessment of Cancer Screening Announcements in Municipal Newspapers in Japan.

PubMed

Okuhara, Tsuyoshi; Ishikawa, Hirono; Okada, Hiroko; Kiuchi, Takahiro

2015-01-01

The objective of this study was to assess the readability, suitability, and health content of cancer screening information in municipal newspapers in Japan. Suitability Assessment of Materials (SAM) and the framework of Health Belief Model (HBM) were used for assessment of municipal newspapers that were published in central Tokyo (23 wards) from January to December 2013. The mean domain SAM scores of content, literacy demand, and layout/typography were considered superior. The SAM scores of interaction with readers, an indication of the models of desirable actions, and elaboration to enhance readers' self-efficacy were low. According to the HBM coding, messages of medical/clinical severity, of social severity, of social benefits, and of barriers of fear were scarce. The articles were generally well written and suitable. However, learning stimulation/motivation was scarce and the HBM constructs were not fully addressed. Articles can be improved to motivate readers to obtain cancer screening by increasing interaction with readers, introducing models of desirable actions and devices to raise readers' self-efficacy, and providing statements of perceived barriers of fear for pain and time constraints, perceived severity, and social benefits and losses.

Organizational Twitter Use: Content Analysis of Tweets during Breast Cancer Awareness Month.

PubMed

Diddi, Pratiti; Lundy, Lisa K

2017-03-01

On an average, at least one out of eight women are at risk of falling prey to breast cancer during their lifespan. Amongst varied initiatives to spread awareness about breast cancer, the most well-known campaign is Breast Cancer Awareness Month. This article explored, through content analysis, how four different health-related organizations-Susan G. Komen, U.S. News Health, Woman's Hospital, and Breast Cancer Social Media-used their Twitter accounts to talk about varied aspects of breast cancer during the month of October, which is observed as Breast Cancer Awareness Month. All the tweets by these organizations were analyzed for the presence or absence of the theoretical parameters of the Health Belief Model (HBM). A content analysis of 2916 tweets based on the HBM revealed that the content posted by these organizations reflected the use of varied theoretical constructs of the framework. Overall, the study demonstrated that while different organizations shared valuable breast cancer-related content on Twitter, each used the social media platform in a different fashion, evident through focus on different types of HBM constructs while publishing breast cancer-related tweets.

Estimating the burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) on respiratory hospital admissions in children less than five years of age in England, 2007-2012.

PubMed

Reeves, Rachel Melanie; Hardelid, Pia; Gilbert, Ruth; Warburton, Fiona; Ellis, Joanna; Pebody, Richard G

2017-03-01

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of hospital admission in young children. With several RSV vaccines candidates undergoing clinical trials, recent estimates of RSV burden are required to provide a baseline for vaccine impact studies. To estimate the number of RSV-associated hospital admissions in children aged <5 years in England over a 5-year period from 2007 using ecological time series modelling of national hospital administrative data. Multiple linear regression modelling of weekly time series of laboratory surveillance data and Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data was used to estimate the number of hospital admissions due to major respiratory pathogens including RSV in children <5 years of age in England from mid-2007 to mid-2012, stratified by age group (<6 months, 6-11 months, 1-4 years) and primary diagnosis: bronchiolitis, pneumonia, unspecified lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI), bronchitis and upper respiratory tract infection (URTI). On average, 33 561 (95% confidence interval 30 429-38 489) RSV-associated hospital admissions in children <5 years of age occurred annually from 2007 to 2012. Average annual admission rates were 35.1 (95% CI: 32.9-38.9) per 1000 children aged <1 year and 5.31 (95% CI: 4.5-6.6) per 1000 children aged 1-4 years. About 84% (95% CI: 81-91%) of RSV-associated admissions were for LRTI. The diagnosis-specific burden of RSV-associated admissions differed significantly by age group. RSV remains a significant cause of hospital admissions in young children in England. Individual-level analysis of RSV-associated admissions is required to fully describe the burden by age and risk group and identify optimal prevention strategies. © 2017 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Technique for estimating depth of floods in Tennessee

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gamble, C.R.

1983-01-01

Estimates of flood depths are needed for design of roadways across flood plains and for other types of construction along streams. Equations for estimating flood depths in Tennessee were derived using data for 150 gaging stations. The equations are based on drainage basin size and can be used to estimate depths of the 10-year and 100-year floods for four hydrologic areas. A method also was developed for estimating depth of floods having recurrence intervals between 10 and 100 years. Standard errors range from 22 to 30 percent for the 10-year depth equations and from 23 to 30 percent for the 100-year depth equations. (USGS)

Factors influencing healthy eating habits among college students: an application of the health belief model.

PubMed

Deshpande, Sameer; Basil, Michael D; Basil, Debra Z

2009-01-01

Poor eating habits are an important public health issue that has large health and economic implications. Many food preferences are established early, but because people make more and more independent eating decisions as they move through adolescence, the transition to independent living during the university days is an important event. To study the phenomenon of food selection, the heath belief model was applied to predict the likelihood of healthy eating among university students. Structural equation modeling was used to investigate the validity of the health belief model (HBM) among 194 students, followed by gender-based analyses. The data strongly supported the HBM. Social change campaign implications are discussed.

Estimates of annual survival, growth, and recruitment of a white-tailed ptarmigan population in Colorado over 43 years

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wann, Greg; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Braun, Clait E.

2014-01-01

Long-term datasets for high-elevation species are rare, and considerable uncertainty exists in understanding how high-elevation populations have responded to recent climate warming. We present estimates of demographic vital rates from a 43-year population study of white-tailed ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura), a species endemic to alpine habitats in western North America. We used capture-recapture models to estimate annual rates of apparent survival, population growth, and recruitment for breeding-age ptarmigan, and we fit winter weather covariates to models in an attempt to explain annual variation. There were no trends in survival over the study period but there was strong support for age and sex effects. The average rate of annual growth suggests a relatively stable breeding-age population ( λ ¯ = 1.036), but there was considerable variation between years for both population growth and recruitment rates. Winter weather covariates only explained a small amount of variation in female survival and were not an important predictor of male survival. Cumulative winter precipitation was found to have a quadratic effect on female survival, with survival being highest during years of average precipitation. Cumulative winter precipitation was positively correlated with population growth and recruitment rates, although this covariate only explained a small amount of annual variation in these rates and there was considerable uncertainty among the models tested. Our results provide evidence for an alpine-endemic population that has not experienced extirpation or drastic declines. However, more information is needed to understand risks and vulnerabilities of warming effects on juveniles as our analysis was confined to determination of vital rates for breeding-age birds.

Aircraft parameter estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iliff, Kenneth W.

1987-01-01

The aircraft parameter estimation problem is used to illustrate the utility of parameter estimation, which applies to many engineering and scientific fields. Maximum likelihood estimation has been used to extract stability and control derivatives from flight data for many years. This paper presents some of the basic concepts of aircraft parameter estimation and briefly surveys the literature in the field. The maximum likelihood estimator is discussed, and the basic concepts of minimization and estimation are examined for a simple simulated aircraft example. The cost functions that are to be minimized during estimation are defined and discussed. Graphic representations of the cost functions are given to illustrate the minimization process. Finally, the basic concepts are generalized, and estimation from flight data is discussed. Some of the major conclusions for the simulated example are also developed for the analysis of flight data from the F-14, highly maneuverable aircraft technology (HiMAT), and space shuttle vehicles.

Variance estimation for the Federal Waterfowl Harvest Surveys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geissler, P.H.

1988-01-01

The Federal Waterfowl Harvest Surveys provide estimates of waterfowl harvest by species for flyways and states, harvests of most other migratory game bird species (by waterfowl hunters), crippling losses for ducks, geese, and coots, days hunted, and bag per hunter. The Waterfowl Hunter Questionnaire Survey separately estimates the harvest of ducks and geese using cluster samples of hunters who buy duck stamps at sample post offices. The Waterfowl Parts Collection estimates species, age, and sex ratios from parts solicited from successful hunters who responded to the Waterfowl Hunter Questionnaire Survey in previous years. These ratios are used to partition the duck and goose harvest into species, age, and sex specific harvest estimates. Annual estimates are correlated because successful hunters who respond to the Questionnaire Survey in one year may be asked to contribute to the Parts Collection for the next three years. Bootstrap variance estimates are used because covariances among years are difficult to estimate.

Comparison on three classification techniques for sex estimation from the bone length of Asian children below 19 years old: an analysis using different group of ages.

PubMed

Darmawan, M F; Yusuf, Suhaila M; Kadir, M R Abdul; Haron, H

2015-02-01

Sex estimation is used in forensic anthropology to assist the identification of individual remains. However, the estimation techniques tend to be unique and applicable only to a certain population. This paper analyzed sex estimation on living individual child below 19 years old using the length of 19 bones of left hand applied for three classification techniques, which were Discriminant Function Analysis (DFA), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) multilayer perceptron. These techniques were carried out on X-ray images of the left hand taken from an Asian population data set. All the 19 bones of the left hand were measured using Free Image software, and all the techniques were performed using MATLAB. The group of age "16-19" years old and "7-9" years old were the groups that could be used for sex estimation with as their average of accuracy percentage was above 80%. ANN model was the best classification technique with the highest average of accuracy percentage in the two groups of age compared to other classification techniques. The results show that each classification technique has the best accuracy percentage on each different group of age. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimated severe pneumococcal disease cases and deaths before and after pneumococcal conjugate vaccine introduction in children younger than 5 years of age in South Africa.

PubMed

von Mollendorf, Claire; Tempia, Stefano; von Gottberg, Anne; Meiring, Susan; Quan, Vanessa; Feldman, Charles; Cloete, Jeane; Madhi, Shabir A; O'Brien, Katherine L; Klugman, Keith P; Whitney, Cynthia G; Cohen, Cheryl

2017-01-01

Streptococcus pneumoniae is a leading cause of severe bacterial infections globally. A full understanding of the impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) on pneumococcal disease burden, following its introduction in 2009 in South Africa, can support national policy on PCV use and assist with policy decisions elsewhere. We developed a model to estimate the national burden of severe pneumococcal disease, i.e. disease requiring hospitalisation, pre- (2005-2008) and post-PCV introduction (2012-2013) in children aged 0-59 months in South Africa. We estimated case numbers for invasive pneumococcal disease using data from the national laboratory-based surveillance, adjusted for specimen-taking practices. We estimated non-bacteraemic pneumococcal pneumonia case numbers using vaccine probe study data. To estimate pneumococcal deaths, we applied observed case fatality ratios to estimated case numbers. Estimates were stratified by HIV status to account for the impact of PCV and HIV-related interventions. We assessed how different assumptions affected estimates using a sensitivity analysis. Bootstrapping created confidence intervals. In the pre-vaccine era, a total of approximately 107,600 (95% confidence interval [CI] 83,000-140,000) cases of severe hospitalised pneumococcal disease were estimated to have occurred annually. Following PCV introduction and the improvement in HIV interventions, 41,800 (95% CI 28,000-50,000) severe pneumococcal disease cases were estimated in 2012-2013, a rate reduction of 1,277 cases per 100,000 child-years. Approximately 5000 (95% CI 3000-6000) pneumococcal-related annual deaths were estimated in the pre-vaccine period and 1,900 (95% CI 1000-2500) in 2012-2013, a mortality rate difference of 61 per 100,000 child-years. While a large number of hospitalisations and deaths due to pneumococcal disease still occur among children 0-59 months in South Africa, we found a large reduction in this estimate that is temporally associated with PCV

Five-Year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) Observations: Bayesian Estimation of Cosmic Microwave Background Polarization Maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunkley, J.; Spergel, D. N.; Komatsu, E.; Hinshaw, G.; Larson, D.; Nolta, M. R.; Odegard, N.; Page, L.; Bennett, C. L.; Gold, B.; Hill, R. S.; Jarosik, N.; Weiland, J. L.; Halpern, M.; Kogut, A.; Limon, M.; Meyer, S. S.; Tucker, G. S.; Wollack, E.; Wright, E. L.

2009-08-01

We describe a sampling method to estimate the polarized cosmic microwave background (CMB) signal from observed maps of the sky. We use a Metropolis-within-Gibbs algorithm to estimate the polarized CMB map, containing Q and U Stokes parameters at each pixel, and its covariance matrix. These can be used as inputs for cosmological analyses. The polarized sky signal is parameterized as the sum of three components: CMB, synchrotron emission, and thermal dust emission. The polarized Galactic components are modeled with spatially varying power-law spectral indices for the synchrotron, and a fixed power law for the dust, and their component maps are estimated as by-products. We apply the method to simulated low-resolution maps with pixels of side 7.2 deg, using diagonal and full noise realizations drawn from the WMAP noise matrices. The CMB maps are recovered with goodness of fit consistent with errors. Computing the likelihood of the E-mode power in the maps as a function of optical depth to reionization, τ, for fixed temperature anisotropy power, we recover τ = 0.091 ± 0.019 for a simulation with input τ = 0.1, and mean τ = 0.098 averaged over 10 simulations. A "null" simulation with no polarized CMB signal has maximum likelihood consistent with τ = 0. The method is applied to the five-year WMAP data, using the K, Ka, Q, and V channels. We find τ = 0.090 ± 0.019, compared to τ = 0.086 ± 0.016 from the template-cleaned maps used in the primary WMAP analysis. The synchrotron spectral index, β, averaged over high signal-to-noise pixels with standard deviation σ(β) < 0.25, but excluding ~6% of the sky masked in the Galactic plane, is -3.03 ± 0.04. This estimate does not vary significantly with Galactic latitude, although includes an informative prior. WMAP is the result of a partnership between Princeton University and NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. Scientific guidance is provided by the WMAP Science Team.

2015-2016 Palila abundance estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Camp, Richard J.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Banko, Paul C.

2016-01-01

The palila (Loxioides bailleui) population was surveyed annually during 1998−2016 on Mauna Kea Volcano to determine abundance, population trend, and spatial distribution. In the latest surveys, the 2015 population was estimated at 852−1,406 birds (point estimate: 1,116) and the 2016 population was estimated at 1,494−2,385 (point estimate: 1,934). Similar numbers of palila were detected during the first and subsequent counts within each year during 2012−2016; the proportion of the total annual detections in each count ranged from 46% to 56%; and there was no difference in the detection probability due to count sequence. Furthermore, conducting repeat counts improved the abundance estimates by reducing the width of the confidence intervals between 9% and 32% annually. This suggests that multiple counts do not affect bird or observer behavior and can be continued in the future to improve the precision of abundance estimates. Five palila were detected on supplemental survey stations in the Ka‘ohe restoration area, outside the core survey area but still within Palila Critical Habitat (one in 2015 and four in 2016), suggesting that palila are present in habitat that is recovering from cattle grazing on the southwest slope. The average rate of decline during 1998−2016 was 150 birds per year. Over the 18-year monitoring period, the estimated rate of change equated to a 58% decline in the population.

Regression estimators for generic health-related quality of life and quality-adjusted life years.

PubMed

Basu, Anirban; Manca, Andrea

2012-01-01

To develop regression models for outcomes with truncated supports, such as health-related quality of life (HRQoL) data, and account for features typical of such data such as a skewed distribution, spikes at 1 or 0, and heteroskedasticity. Regression estimators based on features of the Beta distribution. First, both a single equation and a 2-part model are presented, along with estimation algorithms based on maximum-likelihood, quasi-likelihood, and Bayesian Markov-chain Monte Carlo methods. A novel Bayesian quasi-likelihood estimator is proposed. Second, a simulation exercise is presented to assess the performance of the proposed estimators against ordinary least squares (OLS) regression for a variety of HRQoL distributions that are encountered in practice. Finally, the performance of the proposed estimators is assessed by using them to quantify the treatment effect on QALYs in the EVALUATE hysterectomy trial. Overall model fit is studied using several goodness-of-fit tests such as Pearson's correlation test, link and reset tests, and a modified Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The simulation results indicate that the proposed methods are more robust in estimating covariate effects than OLS, especially when the effects are large or the HRQoL distribution has a large spike at 1. Quasi-likelihood techniques are more robust than maximum likelihood estimators. When applied to the EVALUATE trial, all but the maximum likelihood estimators produce unbiased estimates of the treatment effect. One and 2-part Beta regression models provide flexible approaches to regress the outcomes with truncated supports, such as HRQoL, on covariates, after accounting for many idiosyncratic features of the outcomes distribution. This work will provide applied researchers with a practical set of tools to model outcomes in cost-effectiveness analysis.

Associations between human breast milk hormones and adipocytokines and infant growth and body composition in the first 6 months of life.

PubMed

Fields, D A; George, B; Williams, M; Whitaker, K; Allison, D B; Teague, A; Demerath, E W

2017-08-01

Much is to be learnt about human breast milk (HBM). The purpose of this study is to extend our knowledge of HBM by investigating the role of maternal body mass index (BMI), sex and stage of lactation (month 1 vs. 6) on HBM insulin, glucose, leptin, IL-6 and TNF-α and their associations with infant body composition. Thirty-seven exclusively breastfeeding infants (n = 37; 16♀, 21♂), and their mothers (19-47 kg m -2 ) were studied at 1 and 6 months of lactation. Infants had body composition measured (using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry) and HBM collected. A significant interaction between maternal BMI and infant sex on insulin levels (p = 0.0322) was observed such that insulin was 229% higher in obese mothers nursing female infants than in normal weight mothers nursing female infants and 179% higher than obese mothers nursing male infants. For leptin, a significant association with BMI category was observed (p < 0.0001) such that overweight and obese mothers had 96.5% and 315.1% higher leptin levels than normal weight mothers, respectively. Leptin was also found to have a significant (p = 0.0004) 33.7% decrease from months 1 to 6, controlling for BMI category and sex. A significant inverse relationship between month 1 leptin levels and infant length (p = 0.0257), percent fat (p = 0.0223), total fat mass (p = 0.0226) and trunk fat mass (p = 0.0111) at month 6 was also found. No associations or interactions were observed for glucose, TNF-α or IL-6. These data demonstrate that maternal BMI, infant sex and stage of lactation affect the compositional make-up of insulin and leptin. © 2017 World Obesity Federation.

Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate, Cardiovascular Events and Mortality Across Age Groups Among Individuals Older Than 60 Years in Southern Europe.

PubMed

Salvador-González, Betlem; Gil-Terrón, Neus; Cerain-Herrero, M Jesús; Subirana, Isaac; Güell-Miró, Roser; Rodríguez-Latre, Luisa M; Cunillera-Puértolas, Oriol; Elosua, Roberto; Grau, Maria; Vila, Joan; Pascual-Benito, Luisa; Mestre-Ferrer, Jordi; Ramos, Rafel; Baena-Díez, José Miguel; Soler-Vila, Maria; Alonso-Bes, Eva; Ruipérez-Guijarro, Laura; Álvarez-Funes, Virtudes; Freixes-Villaró, Esther; Rodríguez-Pascual, Mercedes; Martínez-Castelao, Alberto

2018-06-01

Individuals with a decreased estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) are at increased risk of all-cause (ACM) and cardiovascular mortality; there is ongoing debate about whether older individuals with eGFR 45 to 59mL/min/1.73 m 2 are also at increased risk. We evaluated the association between eGFR and ACM and cardiovascular events (CVE) in people aged 60 to 74 and ≥ 75 years in a population with a low coronary disease incidence. We conducted a retrospective cohort study by using primary care and hospital electronic records. We included 130 233 individuals aged ≥ 60 years with creatinine measurement between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2011; eGFR was estimated by using the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration creatinine equation. The independent association between eGFR and the risk of ACM and hospital admission due to CVE were determined with Cox and Fine-Gray regressions, respectively. The median was age 70 years, and 56.1% were women; 13.5% had eGFR < 60 (69.7% eGFR 45-59). During a median follow-up of 38.2 months, 6474 participants died and 3746 had a CVE. For ACM and CVE, the HR in older individuals became significant at eGFR < 60. Fully adjusted HR for ACM in the eGFR 45 to 59 category were 1.61; 95%CI, 1.37-1.89 and 1.19; 95%CI, 1.10-1.28 in 60- to 74-year-olds and ≥ 75-year-olds, respectively; for CVE HR were 1.28; 95%CI, 1.08-1.51 and 1.12; 95%CI, 0.99-1.26. In a region with low coronary disease incidence, the risk of death and CVE increased with decreasing eGFR. In ≥ 75-year-olds, the eGFR 45 to 59 category, which had borderline risk for CVE, included many individuals without significant additional risk. Copyright © 2017 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Adjusted peak-flow frequency estimates for selected streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana based on data through water year 2011: Chapter D in Montana StreamStats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sando, Steven K.; Sando, Roy; McCarthy, Peter M.; Dutton, DeAnn M.

2016-04-05

The climatic conditions of the specific time period during which peak-flow data were collected at a given streamflow-gaging station (hereinafter referred to as gaging station) can substantially affect how well the peak-flow frequency (hereinafter referred to as frequency) results represent long-term hydrologic conditions. Differences in the timing of the periods of record can result in substantial inconsistencies in frequency estimates for hydrologically similar gaging stations. Potential for inconsistency increases with decreasing peak-flow record length. The representativeness of the frequency estimates for a short-term gaging station can be adjusted by various methods including weighting the at-site results in association with frequency estimates from regional regression equations (RREs) by using the Weighted Independent Estimates (WIE) program. Also, for gaging stations that cannot be adjusted by using the WIE program because of regulation or drainage areas too large for application of RREs, frequency estimates might be improved by using record extension procedures, including a mixed-station analysis using the maintenance of variance type I (MOVE.1) procedure. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Montana Department of Transportation and the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, completed a study to provide adjusted frequency estimates for selected gaging stations through water year 2011.The purpose of Chapter D of this Scientific Investigations Report is to present adjusted frequency estimates for 504 selected streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana based on data through water year 2011. Estimates of peak-flow magnitudes for the 66.7-, 50-, 42.9-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities are reported. These annual exceedance probabilities correspond to the 1.5-, 2-, 2.33-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence intervals, respectively.The at-site frequency estimates were

Estimation of Breast Cancer Incident Cases and Medical Care Costs Attributable to Alcohol Consumption Among Insured Women Aged <45 Years in the U.S.

PubMed

Ekwueme, Donatus U; Allaire, Benjamin T; Parish, William J; Thomas, Cheryll C; Poehler, Diana; Guy, Gery P; Aldridge, Arnie P; Lahoti, Sejal R; Fairley, Temeika L; Trogdon, Justin G

2017-09-01

This study estimated the percentage of breast cancer cases, total number of incident cases, and total annual medical care costs attributable to alcohol consumption among insured younger women (aged 18-44 years) by type of insurance and stage at diagnosis. The study used the 2012-2013 National Survey on Drug Use and Health, cancer incidence data from two national registry programs, and published relative risk measures to estimate the: (1) alcohol-attributable fraction of breast cancer cases among younger women by insurance type; (2) total number of breast cancer incident cases attributable to alcohol consumption by stage at diagnosis and insurance type among younger women; and (3) total annual medical care costs of treating breast cancer incident cases attributable to alcohol consumption among younger women. Analyses were conducted in 2016; costs were expressed in 2014 U.S. dollars. Among younger women enrolled in Medicaid, private insurance, and both groups, 8.7% (95% CI=7.4%, 10.0%), 13.8% (95% CI=13.3%, 14.4%), and 12.3% (95% CI=11.4%, 13.1%) of all breast cancer cases, respectively, were attributable to alcohol consumption. Localized stage was the largest proportion of estimated attributable incident cases. The estimated total number of breast cancer incident alcohol-attributable cases was 1,636 (95% CI=1,570, 1,703) and accounted for estimated total annual medical care costs of $148.4 million (95% CI=$140.6 million, $156.1 million). Alcohol-attributable breast cancer has estimated medical care costs of nearly $150 million per year. The current findings could be used to support evidence-based interventions to reduce alcohol consumption in younger women. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Childbearing in adolescents aged 12-15 years in low resource countries: a neglected issue. New estimates from demographic and household surveys in 42 countries.

PubMed

Neal, Sarah; Matthews, Zoë; Frost, Melanie; Fogstad, Helga; Camacho, Alma V; Laski, Laura

2012-09-01

There is strong evidence that the health risks associated with adolescent pregnancy are concentrated among the youngest girls (e.g. those under 16 years). Fertility rates in this age group have not previously been comprehensively estimated and published. By drawing data from 42 large, nationally representative household surveys in low resource countries carried out since 2003 this article presents estimates of age-specific birth rates for girls aged 12-15, and the percentage of girls who give birth at age 15 or younger. From these we estimate that approximately 2.5 million births occur to girls aged under 16 in low resource countries each year. The highest rates are found in Sub-Saharan Africa, where in Chad, Guinea, Mali, Mozambique, Niger and Sierra Leone more than 10% of girls become mothers before they are 16. Strategies to reduce these high levels are vital if we are to alleviate poor reproductive health. © 2012 The Authors  Acta Obstetricia et Gynecologica Scandinavica© 2012 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Techniques for Estimating the Magnitude and Frequency of Peak Flows on Small Streams in Minnesota Based on Data through Water Year 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lorenz, David L.; Sanocki, Chris A.; Kocian, Matthew J.

2010-01-01

Knowledge of the peak flow of floods of a given recurrence interval is essential for regulation and planning of water resources and for design of bridges, culverts, and dams along Minnesota's rivers and streams. Statistical techniques are needed to estimate peak flow at ungaged sites because long-term streamflow records are available at relatively few places. Because of the need to have up-to-date peak-flow frequency information in order to estimate peak flows at ungaged sites, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted a peak-flow frequency study in cooperation with the Minnesota Department of Transportation and the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency. Estimates of peak-flow magnitudes for 1.5-, 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence intervals are presented for 330 streamflow-gaging stations in Minnesota and adjacent areas in Iowa and South Dakota based on data through water year 2005. The peak-flow frequency information was subsequently used in regression analyses to develop equations relating peak flows for selected recurrence intervals to various basin and climatic characteristics. Two statistically derived techniques-regional regression equation and region of influence regression-can be used to estimate peak flow on ungaged streams smaller than 3,000 square miles in Minnesota. Regional regression equations were developed for selected recurrence intervals in each of six regions in Minnesota: A (northwestern), B (north central and east central), C (northeastern), D (west central and south central), E (southwestern), and F (southeastern). The regression equations can be used to estimate peak flows at ungaged sites. The region of influence regression technique dynamically selects streamflow-gaging stations with characteristics similar to a site of interest. Thus, the region of influence regression technique allows use of a potentially unique set of gaging stations for estimating peak flow at each site of interest. Two methods of selecting streamflow

Costs of early spondyloarthritis: estimates from the first 3 years of the DESIR cohort

PubMed Central

Harvard, Stephanie; Guh, Daphne; Bansback, Nick; Richette, Pascal; Dougados, Maxime; Anis, Aslam; Fautrel, Bruno

2016-01-01

Objectives To value health resource utilisation and productivity losses in DESIR, a longitudinal French cohort of 708 patients with early spondyloarthritis (SpA) enrolled between 2007 and 2010, and identify factors associated with costs in the first 3 years of follow-up. Methods Self-reported clinical data from DESIR and French public data were used to value health resource utilisation and productivity losses in 2013 Euros. Factors associated with costs, including and excluding biological drugs, were identified in generalised linear models using the generalised estimating equations algorithm to account for repeated observations over participants. Results The mean (±SD) annual cost per patient was €5004±6870 in year 1, decreasing to €4961±7457 in year 3. Patients who never received a biologic had mean 3-year total costs of €4789±6022 compared to €38 206±19 829 among those who received a biologic. Factors associated with increased total costs were peripheral arthritis (rate ratio (RR) 1.19; 95% CI 1.04 to 1.37; p<0.0001), time on biologics (RR 1.23 per month; 1.21, 1.24; p<0.0001), and average BASFI score (RR 1.18/10 point increase; 1.15, 1.25; p<0.0001). Factors associated with increased costs excluding biologics were baseline age (RR 1.10 per 5 year increase; 1.05, 1.16; p<0.0001), peripheral arthritis (RR 1.20; 1.02, 1.40; p<0.0133), time on biologics (RR 1.04 per month; 1.02, 1.05; p<0.0001), and average BASDAI score (RR 1.21 per 10 point increase; 1.16, 1.25; p<0.0001). Conclusions In addition to biologics, factors like age, peripheral arthritis and disease activity independently increase SpA-related costs. This study may serve as a benchmark for cost of illness among patients with early SpA in the biologic era. PMID:27099778

Costs of early spondyloarthritis: estimates from the first 3 years of the DESIR cohort.

PubMed

Harvard, Stephanie; Guh, Daphne; Bansback, Nick; Richette, Pascal; Dougados, Maxime; Anis, Aslam; Fautrel, Bruno

2016-01-01

To value health resource utilisation and productivity losses in DESIR, a longitudinal French cohort of 708 patients with early spondyloarthritis (SpA) enrolled between 2007 and 2010, and identify factors associated with costs in the first 3 years of follow-up. Self-reported clinical data from DESIR and French public data were used to value health resource utilisation and productivity losses in 2013 Euros. Factors associated with costs, including and excluding biological drugs, were identified in generalised linear models using the generalised estimating equations algorithm to account for repeated observations over participants. The mean (±SD) annual cost per patient was €5004±6870 in year 1, decreasing to €4961±7457 in year 3. Patients who never received a biologic had mean 3-year total costs of €4789±6022 compared to €38 206±19 829 among those who received a biologic. Factors associated with increased total costs were peripheral arthritis (rate ratio (RR) 1.19; 95% CI 1.04 to 1.37; p<0.0001), time on biologics (RR 1.23 per month; 1.21, 1.24; p<0.0001), and average BASFI score (RR 1.18/10 point increase; 1.15, 1.25; p<0.0001). Factors associated with increased costs excluding biologics were baseline age (RR 1.10 per 5 year increase; 1.05, 1.16; p<0.0001), peripheral arthritis (RR 1.20; 1.02, 1.40; p<0.0133), time on biologics (RR 1.04 per month; 1.02, 1.05; p<0.0001), and average BASDAI score (RR 1.21 per 10 point increase; 1.16, 1.25; p<0.0001). In addition to biologics, factors like age, peripheral arthritis and disease activity independently increase SpA-related costs. This study may serve as a benchmark for cost of illness among patients with early SpA in the biologic era.

The Application of the Health Belief Model in Oral Health Education

PubMed Central

Solhi, M; Zadeh, D Shojaei; Seraj, B; Zadeh, S Faghih

2010-01-01

Background: The goal of this study was to determine the application of health belief model in oral health education for 12-year-old children and its effect on oral health behaviors and indexes. Methods: A quasi-experimental study was carried out on twelve-year-old girl students (n-291) in the first grade of secondary school, in the central district of Tehran, Iran. Research sample was selected by a multistage cluster sampling. The data was obtained by using a valid reliable questionnaire for measuring the perceptions, a checklist for observing the quality of brushing and dental flossing and health files and clinical observation. First, a descriptive study was applied to individual perceptions, oral behaviors, Oral Hygiene Index (OHI) and Decayed, Missing and Filled Teeth Index (DMFTI). Then an educational planning based on the results and Health Belief Model (HBM) was applied. The procedure was repeated after six months. Results: After education, based on HBM, all the oral health perceptions increased (P<.05). Correct brushing and flossing are influenced by increased perceptions. A low correlation between the reduction of DMFTI and increased perceived severity and increased perceived barriers are found (r= −0.28, r = 0.43 respectively). In addition, there was a limited correlation between OHI and increased perceived benefits (r = −0.26). Conclusion: Using health belief model in oral health education for increasing the likelihood of taking preventive oral health behaviors is applicable. PMID:23113044

Field activity cost estimates for the first 3 years of the World Bank Loan Project for schistosomiasis control in China.

PubMed

Guo, J; Booth, M; Jenkins, J; Wang, H; Tanner, M

1998-12-01

The World Bank Loan Project for schistosomiasis in China commenced field activities in 1992. In this paper, we describe disease control strategies for levels of different endemicity, and estimate unit costs and total expenditure of screening, treatment (cattle and humans) and snail control for 8 provinces where Schistosoma japonicum infection is endemic. Overall, we estimate that more than 21 million US dollars were spent on field activities during the first three years of the project. Mollusciciding (43% of the total expenditure) and screening (28% of the total) are estimated to have the most expensive field activities. However, despite the expense of screening, a simple model predicts that selective chemotherapy could have been cheaper than mass chemotherapy in areas where infection prevalence was higher than 15%, which was the threshold for mass chemotherapy intervention. It is concluded that considerable cost savings could be made in the future by narrowing the scope of snail control activities, redefining the threshold infection prevalence for mass chemotherapy, defining smaller administrative units, and developing rapid assessment tools.

Estimating the Burden of Leptospirosis among Febrile Subjects Aged below 20 Years in Kampong Cham Communities, Cambodia, 2007-2009

PubMed Central

Hem, Sopheak; Ly, Sowath; Votsi, Irene; Vogt, Florian; Asgari, Nima; Buchy, Philippe; Heng, Seiha; Picardeau, Mathieu; Sok, Touch; Ly, Sovann; Huy, Rekol; Guillard, Bertrand; Cauchemez, Simon; Tarantola, Arnaud

2016-01-01

Background Leptospirosis is an emerging but neglected public health challenge in the Asia/Pacific Region with an annual incidence estimated at 10–100 per 100,000 population. No accurate data, however, are available for at-risk rural Cambodian communities. Method We conducted anonymous, unlinked testing for IgM antibodies to Leptospira spp. on paired sera of Cambodian patients <20 years of age between 2007–2009 collected through active, community-based surveillance for febrile illnesses in a convenience sample of 27 rural and semi-rural villages in four districts of Kampong Cham province, Cambodia. Leptospirosis testing was done on paired serological samples negative for Dengue, Japanese encephalitis and Chikungunya viruses after random selection. Convalescent samples found positive while initial samples were negative were considered as proof of acute infection. We then applied a mathematical model to estimate the risk of fever caused by leptospirosis, dengue or other causes in rural Cambodia. Results A total of 630 samples are coming from a randomly selected subset of 2358 samples. IgM positive were found on the convalescent serum sample, among which 100 (15.8%) samples were IgM negative on an earlier sample. Seventeen of these 100 seroconversions were confirmed using a Microagglutination Test. We estimated the probability of having a fever due to leptospirosis at 1. 03% (95% Credible Interval CI: 0. 95%–1. 22%) per semester. In comparison, this probability was 2. 61% (95% CI: 2. 55%, 2. 83%) for dengue and 17. 65% (95% CI: 17. 49%, 18. 08%) for other causes. Conclusion Our data from febrile cases aged below 20 years suggest that the burden of leptospirosis is high in rural Cambodian communities. This is especially true during the rainy season, even in the absence of identified epidemics. PMID:27043016

Regional and longitudinal estimation of product lifespan distribution: a case study for automobiles and a simplified estimation method.

PubMed

Oguchi, Masahiro; Fuse, Masaaki

2015-02-03

Product lifespan estimates are important information for understanding progress toward sustainable consumption and estimating the stocks and end-of-life flows of products. Publications reported actual lifespan of products; however, quantitative data are still limited for many countries and years. This study presents regional and longitudinal estimation of lifespan distribution of consumer durables, taking passenger cars as an example, and proposes a simplified method for estimating product lifespan distribution. We estimated lifespan distribution parameters for 17 countries based on the age profile of in-use cars. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the shape parameter of the lifespan distribution can be replaced by a constant value for all the countries and years. This enabled a simplified estimation that does not require detailed data on the age profile. Applying the simplified method, we estimated the trend in average lifespans of passenger cars from 2000 to 2009 for 20 countries. Average lifespan differed greatly between countries (9-23 years) and was increasing in many countries. This suggests consumer behavior differs greatly among countries and has changed over time, even in developed countries. The results suggest that inappropriate assumptions of average lifespan may cause significant inaccuracy in estimating the stocks and end-of-life flows of products.

Years of life lost among Iranian people killed in the Iraq-Iran war: the 25-year perspective.

PubMed

Mousavi, Batool; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Karbakhsh, Mojgan; Soroush, Mohammadreza

2014-01-01

To estimate the years of life lost (YLL), registered deaths due to Iraq-Iran war (1980-2005) were identified considering ICD10 codes of Y36.0 to Y36.9. Estimated YLL was calculated by taking age-weighting options and discount rates. Population life expectancy in each corresponding year was retrieved from the national health database. During 1980-2005, 178,298 Iranian men and 5325 Iranian women died in war. The mean death age was 22.8 ± 9 years, 96.6% occurred during the years of war (September 1980-August 1988). In the years after the war (1988-2005) 6243 (3.4%) of deaths occurred as the result of complication of the war-related injuries or implanted landmines/unexploded ordnances (ICD10 code: Y36.8). YLL in Iraq-Iran war among Iranian victims were calculated as 10,479,405.0 years considering the age weighting and discount rate equal to 0. Age-adjusted YLL were estimated as 10,169,546.2 years in males. Female cases that comprised 2.9% of total victims lost 309,858.8 years. The mean YLL was calculated as 57.1 years for each Iranian victim killed in Iraq-Iran war. The war-related YLL was estimated more than 10 million years that comprised a majority of young men. This study is the first step in estimation of disability adjusted life year (DALY) of Iraq-Iran war on Iranian side.

Estimation of Aboveground Biomass Change for Tropical Deciduous Forest in Bago Yoma, Myanmar between year 2000 and 2014 using Landsat Images and Ground Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, H. S.; Wynn, K. Z.; Ryu, Y.

2015-12-01

Even with recently increased awareness of the environmental conservation, the degradation of tropical forests are still one of the major sources of global carbon emission. Especially in Myanmar, the pressure to develop natural forest is growing rapidly after the change from socialism to capitalism in 2010. As the initial step of the forest conservation, the aboveground biomass(AGB) of South Zarmani Reserved Forest in Bago Yoma region were estimated using Landsat 8 OLI after the evaluation with 100 sample plot measurements. Multiple linear regression (MLR) model of band values and their principal component analysis (PCA) model were developed to estimate the AGB using the spectral reflectance from Landsat images and elevation as the input variables. The MLR model had r2 = 0.43, RMSE = 60.2 tons/ha, relative RMSE = 70.1%, Bias = -9.1 tons/ha, Bias (%) = -10.6%, and p < 0.0001, while the PCA model showed r2 = 0.45, RMSE = 55.1 tons/ha, relative RMSE = 64.1%, Bias = -8.3 tons/ha, Bias (%) = -9.7%, and p < 0.0001. The AGB maps of the study area were generated based on both MLR and PCA models. The estimated mean AGB values were 74.74±22.3 tons/ha and 73.04±17.6 tons/ha and the total AGB of the study area are about 5.7 and 5.6 million tons from MLR and PCA, respectively. Then, Landsat 7 ETM+ image acquired on 2000 was also used to compare the changing of AGB between year 2000 and 2014. The estimated mean AGB value generated from the Landsat 7 ETM+ image was 78.9±16.9 tons/ha, which is substantially decreased about 7.5% compared to year 2014. The reduction of AGB increased with closeness to village, however AGB in distant areas showed steady increases. In conclusion, we were able to generate solid regression models from Landsat 8 OLI image after ground truth and two regression models gave us very similar AGB estimation (less than 2%) of the study area. We were also able to estimate the changing of AGB from year 2000 to 2014 of South Zarmani Reserved Forest, Bago Yoma

Estimating least-developed countries' vulnerability to climate-related extreme events over the next 50 years.

PubMed

Patt, Anthony G; Tadross, Mark; Nussbaumer, Patrick; Asante, Kwabena; Metzger, Marc; Rafael, Jose; Goujon, Anne; Brundrit, Geoff

2010-01-26

When will least developed countries be most vulnerable to climate change, given the influence of projected socio-economic development? The question is important, not least because current levels of international assistance to support adaptation lag more than an order of magnitude below what analysts estimate to be needed, and scaling up support could take many years. In this paper, we examine this question using an empirically derived model of human losses to climate-related extreme events, as an indicator of vulnerability and the need for adaptation assistance. We develop a set of 50-year scenarios for these losses in one country, Mozambique, using high-resolution climate projections, and then extend the results to a sample of 23 least-developed countries. Our approach takes into account both potential changes in countries' exposure to climatic extreme events, and socio-economic development trends that influence countries' own adaptive capacities. Our results suggest that the effects of socio-economic development trends may begin to offset rising climate exposure in the second quarter of the century, and that it is in the period between now and then that vulnerability will rise most quickly. This implies an urgency to the need for international assistance to finance adaptation.

Estimating least-developed countries’ vulnerability to climate-related extreme events over the next 50 years

PubMed Central

Patt, Anthony G.; Tadross, Mark; Nussbaumer, Patrick; Asante, Kwabena; Metzger, Marc; Rafael, Jose; Goujon, Anne; Brundrit, Geoff

2010-01-01

When will least developed countries be most vulnerable to climate change, given the influence of projected socio-economic development? The question is important, not least because current levels of international assistance to support adaptation lag more than an order of magnitude below what analysts estimate to be needed, and scaling up support could take many years. In this paper, we examine this question using an empirically derived model of human losses to climate-related extreme events, as an indicator of vulnerability and the need for adaptation assistance. We develop a set of 50-year scenarios for these losses in one country, Mozambique, using high-resolution climate projections, and then extend the results to a sample of 23 least-developed countries. Our approach takes into account both potential changes in countries’ exposure to climatic extreme events, and socio-economic development trends that influence countries’ own adaptive capacities. Our results suggest that the effects of socio-economic development trends may begin to offset rising climate exposure in the second quarter of the century, and that it is in the period between now and then that vulnerability will rise most quickly. This implies an urgency to the need for international assistance to finance adaptation. PMID:20080585

Variability of vertical cup to disc ratio measurement and the effects of glaucoma 5-year risk estimation in untreated ocular hypertensive eyes.

PubMed

Chan, Poemen Pui Man; Chiu, Vivian S M; Wong, Mandy O I

2018-06-01

To compare the vertical cup to disc ratio (VCDR) measurements obtained with optical coherence tomography (OCT), Heidelberg retina tomography (HRT) and stereophotography of the optic nerve head (ONH) in patients with ocular hypertension (OHT), and their corresponding estimated 5-year risk for development of glaucoma. ONH images of patients with OHT were taken by fundus camera (stereoscopic images), OCT and HRT. Optic disc stereophotographs were evaluated with a stereo-viewer by two glaucoma specialists (SP1 and SP2) and the VCDR was measured with the ImageJ software. VCDR measurements obtained with stereophotography, OCT and HRT were used to calculate the estimated 5-year risk. One hundred and forty eyes of 75 patients with OHT were included. The VCDR values measured by OCT, HRT, SP1 and SP2 were 0.60±0.14, 0.53±0.23, 0.44±0.13 and 0.49±0.10, respectively. The corresponding 5-year risk for development of glaucoma was 19.54%±16.60%, 18.13%±16.96%, 15.64%±14.35% and 16.70%±14.49%, respectively. Different degrees of proportional biases were observed in VCDR measurements obtained with stereophotography, OCT and HRT. The maximum difference of VCDR measurement was 0.64, while the maximum difference of the corresponding 5-year risk was 24.02%. The disagreement in VCDR measured by OCT, HRT and stereophotography in untreated OHT eyes extends to their 5-year risk estimation of glaucoma development. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Estimation of Melt Pond Fractions on First Year Sea Ice Using Compact Polarization SAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Haiyan; Perrie, William; Li, Qun; Hou, Yijun

2017-10-01

Melt ponds are a common feature on Arctic sea ice. They are linked to the sea ice surface albedo and transmittance of energy to the ocean from the atmosphere and thus constitute an important process to parameterize in Arctic climate models and simulations. This paper presents a first attempt to retrieve the melt pond fraction from hybrid-polarized compact polarization (CP) SAR imagery, which has wider swath and shorter revisit time than the quad-polarization systems, e.g., from RADARSAT-2 (RS-2). The co-polarization (co-pol) ratio has been verified to provide estimates of melt pond fractions. However, it is a challenge to link CP parameters and the co-pol ratio. The theoretical possibility is presented, for making this linkage with the CP parameter C22/C11 (the ratio between the elements of the coherence matrix of CP SAR) for melt pond detection and monitoring with the tilted-Bragg scattering model for the ocean surface. The empirical transformed formulation, denoted as the "compact polarization and quad-pol" ("CPQP") model, is proposed, based on 2062 RS-2 quad-pol SAR images, collocated with in situ measurements. We compared the retrieved melt pond fraction with CP parameters simulated from quad-pol SAR data with results retrieved from the co-pol ratio from quad-pol SAR observations acquired during the Arctic-Ice (Arctic-Ice Covered Ecosystem in a Rapidly Changing Environment) field project. The results are shown to be comparable for observed melt pond measurements in spatial and temporal distributions. Thus, the utility of CP mode SAR for melt pond fraction estimation on first year level ice is presented.

Twenty-year changes in coral near Muscat, Oman estimated from manta board tow observations.

PubMed

Coles, Steve L; Looker, Elayne; Burt, John A

2015-02-01

The coastline of Muscat, Oman, contains some of the most extensive and diverse coral reefs in the northeastern Arabian Peninsula. In the past two decades this region has been impacted by expanding coastal development, the largest cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea, and a large-scale harmful algal bloom which resulted in mass mortality of reefs elsewhere in the Gulf of Oman. In 2012 we estimated live and dead coral using manta tow observations on 370 transects at 13 locations along the coastline and nearshore islands of Muscat Oman. We compared these estimates against observations made on 389 transects at the same 13 locations two decades earlier (1993-94) in order to determine long-term changes in benthos along the Muscat coast. Results were mapped and differences in categorical mean values for transect locations were statistically compared between survey years. Live hard and soft coral decreased over the past two decades at most survey sites, and decreases were significant at three exposed coastline sites and one semi-enclosed embayment. One sheltered embayment site showed a significant increase in live hard coral over the study period. Declines in live hard coral were associated with increases in dead coral framework at 8 of the 13 sites, but these changes were non-significant. We attribute these changes primarily to long-term effects of Cyclone Gonu, which struck the Oman coast in June 2007. The study results suggest that the manta tow method can be an effective way to detect long-term changes in coral and other benthic parameters over large areas, despite limitations on its precision. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantitative precipitation estimates for the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau over the last 18,000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jianyong; Dodson, John; Yan, Hong; Cheng, Bo; Zhang, Xiaojian; Xu, Qinghai; Ni, Jian; Lu, Fengyan

2017-05-01

Quantitative information regarding the long-term variability of precipitation and vegetation during the period covering both the Late Glacial and the Holocene on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) is scarce. Herein, we provide new and numerical reconstructions for annual mean precipitation (PANN) and vegetation history over the last 18,000 years using high-resolution pollen data from Lakes Dalianhai and Qinghai on the northeastern QTP. Hitherto, five calibration techniques including weighted averaging, weighted average-partial least squares regression, modern analogue technique, locally weighted weighted averaging regression, and maximum likelihood were first employed to construct robust inference models and to produce reliable PANN estimates on the QTP. The biomization method was applied for reconstructing the vegetation dynamics. The study area was dominated by steppe and characterized with a highly variable, relatively dry climate at 18,000-11,000 cal years B.P. PANN increased since the early Holocene, obtained a maximum at 8000-3000 cal years B.P. with coniferous-temperate mixed forest as the dominant biome, and thereafter declined to present. The PANN reconstructions are broadly consistent with other proxy-based paleoclimatic records from the northeastern QTP and the northern region of monsoonal China. The possible mechanisms behind the precipitation changes may be tentatively attributed to the internal feedback processes of higher latitude (e.g., North Atlantic) and lower latitude (e.g., subtropical monsoon) competing climatic regimes, which are primarily modulated by solar energy output as the external driving force. These findings may provide important insights into understanding the future Asian precipitation dynamics under the projected global warming.

Use of hand-held computers to determine the relative contribution of different cognitive, attitudinal, social, and organizational factors on health care workers' decision to decontaminate hands.

PubMed

Lee, Karen; Burnett, Emma; Morrison, Kenny; Ricketts, Ian

2014-02-01

Observational and survey methods have limitations in measuring hand hygiene behavior. The ability of a personal digital assistant to anonymously gather data at the point of decision making could potentially address these. Participants were provided with a personal digital assistant to be used for three 2-hour periods and asked to rate influential factors of the Health Belief Model (HBM). Participants were also required to enter what they thought they should do and what they actually did. A total of 741 hand hygiene opportunities was recorded. All HBM constructs were higher for hand hygiene opportunities where there was compliance versus noncompliance, with a significant difference for patient pressure, my risk, perceived benefits, perceived seriousness, and availability of good facilities. Only 20% of doctors, 28% of nurses, and 66% of physiotherapists always did what they thought they should. There was no correlation between self-reported and actual compliance. The HBM appeared to be a useful theoretical framework. Surprisingly, participants rated their compliance as high despite having recorded instances where they did not do what they thought they should do. This suggests that staff may have a different definition of compliance than strict observation of the guidelines. Copyright © 2014 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Efficacy of Peer Education for Adopting Preventive Behaviors against Head Lice Infestation in Female Elementary School Students: A Randomised Controlled Trial

PubMed Central

Zamani-Alavijeh, Fereshteh; Mojadam, Mehdi

2017-01-01

Background Pediculosis is a common parasitic infestation in students worldwide, including Iran. This condition is more prevalent in populous and deprived communities with poor personal hygiene. This study sought to assess the efficacy of peer education for adopting preventive behaviors against pediculosis in female elementary school students based on the Health Belief Model (HBM). Methods A total of 179 female fifth grade students were selected using multistage random sampling and were randomly allocated to control and intervention groups. A standard questionnaire was designed and administered to collect baseline information. An educational intervention was then designed based on the conducted needs assessment. The educational program consisted of three sessions, held by peers for the intervention group. The questionnaire was re-administered one month after the intervention. Independent and paired t-test, Pearson’s correlation coefficient, and regression analysis were applied as appropriate. Results The two groups had no significant differences in the scores of knowledge, HBM constructs, or behavior before the intervention. After the intervention, however, the mean scores of all parameters significantly improved in the intervention group. Conclusion Peer education based on HBM is an effective strategy to promote preventive behaviors against pediculosis in among fifth grade female elementary school students in Iran. PMID:28072852

Application of the Health Belief Model to customers' use of menu labels in restaurants.

PubMed

Jeong, Jin-Yi; Ham, Sunny

2018-04-01

Some countries require the provision of menu labels on restaurant menus to fight the increasing prevalence of obesity and related chronic diseases. This study views customers' use of menu labels as a preventive health behavior and applies the Health Belief Model (HBM) with the aim of determining the health belief factors that influence customers' use of menu labels. A self-administered survey was distributed for data collection. Responses were collected from 335 restaurant customers who experienced menu labels in restaurants within three months prior to the survey. The results of a structural equation model showed that all the HBM variables (perceived threats, perceived benefits, and perceived barriers of using menu labels) positively affected the customers' use of menu labels. Perceived threats were influenced by cues to action and cues to action had an indirect influence on menu label use through perceived threats. In conclusion, health beliefs were good predictors of menu label use on restaurant menus. This study validated the application of the HBM to menu labeling in restaurants, and its findings could offer guidelines for the industry and government in developing strategies to expand the use of menu labels among the public. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Vaccine perception among acceptors and non-acceptors in Sokoto State, Nigeria.

PubMed

Murele, Bola; Vaz, Rui; Gasasira, Alex; Mkanda, Pascal; Erbeto, Tesfaye; Okeibunor, Joseph

2014-05-30

Vaccine perceptions among acceptors and non-acceptors of childhood vaccination were explored. Seventy-two care givers, among them, acceptors and non-acceptors were interviewed in-depth with an interview guide that assessed vaccine acceptance, social and personality factors, and health belief model (HBM) categories in relation to oral polio vaccine (perceived susceptibility, severity, cost barriers, general barriers, benefits, knowledge, and engagement in preventative health behaviours). Community leaders were purposively selected while parents were selected on the basis of availability while ensuring the different attitude to vaccines was covered. Results showed that the HBM framework was found to be appropriate for identifying and distinguishing vaccine acceptors and non-acceptors. In addition, the HBM categories of benefits and susceptibility were found to influence oral polio vaccine acceptance. Second, the opinion of family members about the oral polio vaccine moderated the relationship between number of social ties and vaccine acceptance. Further, oral polio vaccine acceptance was related to outbreaks of paralysis of any sort, but not aggregate scores of other preventative health behaviours. Implications of this study include the investigation of vaccine acceptance in a high risk population. Research was done to investigate vaccine acceptance. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Local SAR in High Pass Birdcage and TEM Body Coils for Multiple Human Body Models in Clinical Landmark Positions at 3T

PubMed Central

Yeo, Desmond TB; Wang, Zhangwei; Loew, Wolfgang; Vogel, Mika W; Hancu, Ileana

2011-01-01

Purpose To use EM simulations to study the effects of body type, landmark position, and RF body coil type on peak local SAR in 3T MRI. Materials and Methods Numerically computed peak local SAR for four human body models (HBMs) in three landmark positions (head, heart, pelvic) were compared for a high-pass birdcage and a transverse electromagnetic 3T body coil. Local SAR values were normalized to the IEC whole-body average SAR limit of 2.0 W/kg for normal scan mode. Results Local SAR distributions were highly variable. Consistent with previous reports, the peak local SAR values generally occurred in the neck-shoulder area, near rungs, or between tissues of greatly differing electrical properties. The HBM type significantly influenced the peak local SAR, with stockier HBMs, extending extremities towards rungs, displaying the highest SAR. There was also a trend for higher peak SAR in the head-centric and heart-centric positions. The impact of the coil-types studied was not statistically significant. Conclusion The large variability in peak local SAR indicates the need to include more than one HBM or landmark position when evaluating safety of body coils. It is recommended that a HBM with arms near the rungs be included, to create physically realizable high-SAR scenarios. PMID:21509880

Factors affecting nurses' decision to get the flu vaccine.

PubMed

Shahrabani, Shosh; Benzion, Uri; Yom Din, Gregory

2009-05-01

The objective of this study was to identify factors that influence the decision whether or not to get the influenza (flu) vaccine among nurses in Israel by using the health belief model (HBM). A questionnaire distributed among 299 nurses in Israel in winter 2005/2006 included (1) socio-demographic information; (2) variables based on the HBM, including susceptibility, seriousness, benefits, barriers and cues to action; and (3) knowledge about influenza and the vaccine, and health motivation. A probit model was used to analyze the data. In Israel, the significant HBM categories affecting nurses' decision to get a flu shot are the perceived benefits from vaccination and cues to action. In addition, nurses who are vaccinated have higher levels of (1) knowledge regarding the vaccine and influenza, (2) perceived seriousness of the illness, (3) perceived susceptibility, and (4) health motivation than do those who do not get the vaccine. Immunization of healthcare workers may reduce the risk of flu outbreaks in all types of healthcare facilities and reduce morbidity and mortality among high-risk patients. In order to increase vaccination rates among nurses, efforts should be made to educate them regarding the benefits of vaccination and the potential health consequences of influenza for their patients, and themselves.

Recent Performance Results of VPIC on Trinity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nystrom, W. D.; Bergen, B.; Bird, R. F.; Bowers, K. J.; Daughton, W. S.; Guo, F.; Le, A.; Li, H.; Nam, H.; Pang, X.; Stark, D. J.; Rust, W. N., III; Yin, L.; Albright, B. J.

2017-10-01

Trinity is a new DOE compute resource now in production at Los Alamos National Laboratory. Trinity has several new and unique features including two compute partitions, one with dual socket Intel Haswell Xeon compute nodes and one with Intel Knights Landing (KNL) Xeon Phi compute nodes, use of on package high bandwidth memory (HBM) for KNL nodes, ability to configure KNL nodes with respect to HBM model and on die network topology in a variety of operational modes at run time, and use of solid state storage via burst buffer technology to reduce time required to perform I/O. An effort is in progress to optimize VPIC on Trinity by taking advantage of these new architectural features. Results of work will be presented on performance of VPIC on Haswell and KNL partitions for single node runs and runs at scale. Results include use of burst buffers at scale to optimize I/O, comparison of strategies for using MPI and threads, performance benefits using HBM and effectiveness of using intrinsics for vectorization. Work performed under auspices of U.S. Dept. of Energy by Los Alamos National Security, LLC Los Alamos National Laboratory under contract DE-AC52-06NA25396 and supported by LANL LDRD program.

Bias correction of nutritional status estimates when reported age is used for calculating WHO indicators in children under five years of age.

PubMed

Quezada, Amado D; García-Guerra, Armando; Escobar, Leticia

2016-06-01

To assess the performance of a simple correction method for nutritional status estimates in children under five years of age when exact age is not available from the data. The proposed method was based on the assumption of symmetry of age distributions within a given month of age and validated in a large population-based survey sample of Mexican preschool children. The main distributional assumption was consistent with the data. All prevalence estimates derived from the correction method showed no statistically significant bias. In contrast, failing to correct attained age resulted in an underestimation of stunting in general and an overestimation of overweight or obesity among the youngest. The proposed method performed remarkably well in terms of bias correction of estimates and could be easily applied in situations in which either birth or interview dates are not available from the data.

Economics in “Global Health 2035”: a sensitivity analysis of the value of a life year estimates

PubMed Central

Chang, Angela Y; Robinson, Lisa A; Hammitt, James K; Resch, Stephen C

2017-01-01

Background In “Global health 2035: a world converging within a generation,” The Lancet Commission on Investing in Health (CIH) adds the value of increased life expectancy to the value of growth in gross domestic product (GDP) when assessing national well–being. To value changes in life expectancy, the CIH relies on several strong assumptions to bridge gaps in the empirical research. It finds that the value of a life year (VLY) averages 2.3 times GDP per capita for low– and middle–income countries (LMICs) assuming the changes in life expectancy they experienced from 2000 to 2011 are permanent. Methods The CIH VLY estimate is based on a specific shift in population life expectancy and includes a 50 percent reduction for children ages 0 through 4. We investigate the sensitivity of this estimate to the underlying assumptions, including the effects of income, age, and life expectancy, and the sequencing of the calculations. Findings We find that reasonable alternative assumptions regarding the effects of income, age, and life expectancy may reduce the VLY estimates to 0.2 to 2.1 times GDP per capita for LMICs. Removing the reduction for young children increases the VLY, while reversing the sequencing of the calculations reduces the VLY. Conclusion Because the VLY is sensitive to the underlying assumptions, analysts interested in applying this approach elsewhere must tailor the estimates to the impacts of the intervention and the characteristics of the affected population. Analysts should test the sensitivity of their conclusions to reasonable alternative assumptions. More work is needed to investigate options for improving the approach. PMID:28400950

Three- to nine-year survival estimates and fracture mechanisms of zirconia- and alumina-based restorations using standardized criteria to distinguish the severity of ceramic fractures.

PubMed

Moráguez, Osvaldo D; Wiskott, H W Anselm; Scherrer, Susanne S

2015-12-01

The aims of this study were set as follows: 1. To provide verifiable criteria to categorize the ceramic fractures into non-critical (i.e., amenable to polishing) or critical (i.e., in need of replacement) 2. To establish the corresponding survival rates for alumina and zirconia restorations 3. To establish the mechanism of fracture using fractography Fifty-eight patients restored with 115 alumina-/zirconia-based crowns and 26 zirconia-based fixed dental prostheses (FDPs) were included. Ceramic fractures were classified into four types and further subclassified into "critical" or "non-critical." Kaplan-Meier survival estimates were calculated for "critical fractures only" and "all fractures." Intra-oral replicas were taken for fractographic analyses. Kaplan-Meier survival estimates for "critical fractures only" and "all fractures" were respectively: Alumina single crowns: 90.9 and 68.3 % after 9.5 years (mean 5.71 ± 2.6 years). Zirconia single crowns: 89.4 and 80.9 % after 6.3 years (mean 3.88 ± 1.2 years). Zirconia FDPs: 68.6 % (critical fractures) and 24.6 % (all fractures) after 7.2 and 4.6 years respectively (FDP mean observation time 3.02 ± 1.4 years). No core/framework fractures were detected. Survival estimates varied significantly depending on whether "all" fractures were considered as failures or only those deemed as "critical". For all restorations, fractographic analyses of failed veneering ceramics systematically demonstrated heavy occlusal wear at the failure origin. Therefore, the relief of local contact pressures on unsupported ceramic is recommended. Occlusal contacts on mesial or distal ridges should systematically be eliminated. A classification standard for ceramic fractures into four categories with subtypes "critical" and "non-critical" provides a differentiated view of the survival of ceramic restorations.

Effectiveness of self-management promotion educational program among diabetic patients based on health belief model

PubMed Central

Jalilian, Farzad; Motlagh, Fazel Zinat; Solhi, Mahnaz; Gharibnavaz, Hasan

2014-01-01

Introduction: Diabetes is a chronic disease; it can cause serious complications. Diabetes self-management is essential for prevention of disease complications. This study was conducted to evaluate self-management promotion educational program intervention efficiency among diabetic patients in Iran and health belief model (HBM) was applied as a theoretical framework. Materials and Methods: Overall, 120 Type 2 diabetic patients referred to rural health centers in Gachsaran, Iran participated in this study as randomly divided into intervention and control group. This was a longitudinal randomized pre- and post-test series control group design panel study to implement a behavior modification based intervention to promotion self-management among diabetic patients. Cross-tabulation and t-test by using SPSS statistical package, version 16 was used for the statistical analysis. Results: Mean age was 55.07 years (SD = 9.94, range: 30-70). Our result shows significant improvements in average response for susceptibility, severity, benefit and self-management among intervention group. Additionally, after intervention, average response of the barrier to self-management was decreased among intervention group. Conclusion: Our result showed education program based on HBM was improve of self-management and seems implementing these programs can be effective in the and prevention of diabetes complications. PMID:24741654

Burden of Six Healthcare-Associated Infections on European Population Health: Estimating Incidence-Based Disability-Adjusted Life Years through a Population Prevalence-Based Modelling Study

PubMed Central

Eckmanns, Tim; Abu Sin, Muna; Ducomble, Tanja; Harder, Thomas; Sixtensson, Madlen; Velasco, Edward; Weiß, Bettina; Kramarz, Piotr; Monnet, Dominique L.; Kretzschmar, Mirjam E.; Suetens, Carl

2016-01-01

Background Estimating the burden of healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) compared to other communicable diseases is an ongoing challenge given the need for good quality data on the incidence of these infections and the involved comorbidities. Based on the methodology of the Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe (BCoDE) project and 2011–2012 data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) point prevalence survey (PPS) of HAIs and antimicrobial use in European acute care hospitals, we estimated the burden of six common HAIs. Methods and Findings The included HAIs were healthcare-associated pneumonia (HAP), healthcare-associated urinary tract infection (HA UTI), surgical site infection (SSI), healthcare-associated Clostridium difficile infection (HA CDI), healthcare-associated neonatal sepsis, and healthcare-associated primary bloodstream infection (HA primary BSI). The burden of these HAIs was measured in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Evidence relating to the disease progression pathway of each type of HAI was collected through systematic literature reviews, in order to estimate the risks attributable to HAIs. For each of the six HAIs, gender and age group prevalence from the ECDC PPS was converted into incidence rates by applying the Rhame and Sudderth formula. We adjusted for reduced life expectancy within the hospital population using three severity groups based on McCabe score data from the ECDC PPS. We estimated that 2,609,911 new cases of HAI occur every year in the European Union and European Economic Area (EU/EEA). The cumulative burden of the six HAIs was estimated at 501 DALYs per 100,000 general population each year in EU/EEA. HAP and HA primary BSI were associated with the highest burden and represented more than 60% of the total burden, with 169 and 145 DALYs per 100,000 total population, respectively. HA UTI, SSI, HA CDI, and HA primary BSI ranked as the third to sixth syndromes in terms of burden of disease

Bias of animal population trend estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geissler, P.H.; Link, W.A.; Wegman, E.J.; Gantz, D.T.; Miller, J.J.

1988-01-01

A computer simulation study of the population trend estimator used for the Mourning Dove Call-Count Survey, Woodcock Singing Ground Survey, Breeding Bird Survey and other surveys concluded that the estimator had negligible bias in most situations but that observer covariables should not be used with less than five years of data. With rare species (e.g. two birds per route), at least five years should be used. The estimator is seriously biased towards not detecting population changes with very rare species (e.g. 0.3 birds per route). Other technical recommendations are made.

Demographic estimation methods for plants with unobservable life-states

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kery, M.; Gregg, K.B.; Schaub, M.

2005-01-01

Demographic estimation of vital parameters in plants with an unobservable dormant state is complicated, because time of death is not known. Conventional methods assume that death occurs at a particular time after a plant has last been seen aboveground but the consequences of assuming a particular duration of dormancy have never been tested. Capture-recapture methods do not make assumptions about time of death; however, problems with parameter estimability have not yet been resolved. To date, a critical comparative assessment of these methods is lacking. We analysed data from a 10 year study of Cleistes bifaria, a terrestrial orchid with frequent dormancy, and compared demographic estimates obtained by five varieties of the conventional methods, and two capture-recapture methods. All conventional methods produced spurious unity survival estimates for some years or for some states, and estimates of demographic rates sensitive to the time of death assumption. In contrast, capture-recapture methods are more parsimonious in terms of assumptions, are based on well founded theory and did not produce spurious estimates. In Cleistes, dormant episodes lasted for 1-4 years (mean 1.4, SD 0.74). The capture-recapture models estimated ramet survival rate at 0.86 (SE~ 0.01), ranging from 0.77-0.94 (SEs # 0.1) in anyone year. The average fraction dormant was estimated at 30% (SE 1.5), ranging 16 -47% (SEs # 5.1) in anyone year. Multistate capture-recapture models showed that survival rates were positively related to precipitation in the current year, but transition rates were more strongly related to precipitation in the previous than in the current year, with more ramets going dormant following dry years. Not all capture-recapture models of interest have estimable parameters; for instance, without excavating plants in years when they do not appear aboveground, it is not possible to obtain independent timespecific survival estimates for dormant plants. We introduce rigorous

Estimated Domestic, Irrigation, and Industrial Water Use in Washington, 2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lane, R.C.

2004-01-01

Since 1950, the U.S. Geological Survey has published a series of Circulars and other reports on the estimated use of water in the United States at 5-year intervals. This report presents State, regional, and county estimates of the amount of water used for domestic, irrigation, and industrial purposes in the State of Washington during the year 2000. Domestic water use was estimated to be 674 million gallons per day and the per-capita rate, 114 gallons per day. Crop-irrigation water use was estimated to be 3,005 million gallons per day and the application rate, 2.2 acre-feet per acre per year, or feet per year. Golf-course irrigation water use was estimated to be 23.6 million gallons per day and the application rate, 1.4 feet per year. Industrial water use was estimated to be 681 million gallons per day. Historically, these core categories account for about 92 percent of the estimated offstream water used in Washington.

Effectiveness of inactivated influenza vaccines in preventing influenza-associated deaths and hospitalizations among Ontario residents aged ≥ 65 years: estimates with generalized linear models accounting for healthy vaccinee effects.

PubMed

Ridenhour, Benjamin J; Campitelli, Michael A; Kwong, Jeffrey C; Rosella, Laura C; Armstrong, Ben G; Mangtani, Punam; Calzavara, Andrew J; Shay, David K

2013-01-01

Estimates of the effectiveness of influenza vaccines in older adults may be biased because of difficulties identifying and adjusting for confounders of the vaccine-outcome association. We estimated vaccine effectiveness for prevention of serious influenza complications among older persons by using methods to account for underlying differences in risk for these complications. We conducted a retrospective cohort study among Ontario residents aged ≥ 65 years from September 1993 through September 2008. We linked weekly vaccination, hospitalization, and death records for 1.4 million community-dwelling persons aged ≥ 65 years. Vaccine effectiveness was estimated by comparing ratios of outcome rates during weeks of high versus low influenza activity (defined by viral surveillance data) among vaccinated and unvaccinated subjects by using log-linear regression models that accounted for temperature and time trends with natural spline functions. Effectiveness was estimated for three influenza-associated outcomes: all-cause deaths, deaths occurring within 30 days of pneumonia/influenza hospitalizations, and pneumonia/influenza hospitalizations. During weeks when 5% of respiratory specimens tested positive for influenza A, vaccine effectiveness among persons aged ≥ 65 years was 22% (95% confidence interval [CI], -6%-42%) for all influenza-associated deaths, 25% (95% CI, 13%-37%) for deaths occurring within 30 days after an influenza-associated pneumonia/influenza hospitalization, and 19% (95% CI, 4%-31%) for influenza-associated pneumonia/influenza hospitalizations. Because small proportions of deaths, deaths after pneumonia/influenza hospitalizations, and pneumonia/influenza hospitalizations were associated with influenza virus circulation, we estimated that vaccination prevented 1.6%, 4.8%, and 4.1% of these outcomes, respectively. By using confounding-reducing techniques with 15 years of provincial-level data including vaccination and health outcomes, we estimated that

Retrospective Analog Year Analyses Using NASA Satellite Data to Improve USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Teng, William; Shannon, Harlan

2011-01-01

The USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) is responsible for monitoring weather and climate impacts on domestic and foreign crop development. One of WAOB's primary goals is to determine the net cumulative effect of weather and climate anomalies on final crop yields. To this end, a broad array of information is consulted, including maps, charts, and time series of recent weather, climate, and crop observations; numerical output from weather and crop models; and reports from the press, USDA attach s, and foreign governments. The resulting agricultural weather assessments are published in the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin, to keep farmers, policy makers, and commercial agricultural interests informed of weather and climate impacts on agriculture. Because both the amount and timing of precipitation significantly affect crop yields, WAOB often uses precipitation time series to identify growing seasons with similar weather patterns and help estimate crop yields for the current growing season, based on observed yields in analog years. Historically, these analog years are visually identified; however, the qualitative nature of this method sometimes precludes the definitive identification of the best analog year. Thus, one goal of this study is to derive a more rigorous, statistical approach for identifying analog years, based on a modified coefficient of determination, termed the analog index (AI). A second goal is to compare the performance of AI for time series derived from surface-based observations vs. satellite-based measurements (NASA TRMM and other data).

Estimation of years lived with disability due to noncommunicable diseases and injuries using a population-representative survey

PubMed Central

Park, Ji In

2017-01-01

The Global Burden of Disease 2010 and the WHO Global Health Estimates of years lived with disability (YLDs) uses disability-weights obtained from lay health-state descriptions, which cannot fully reflect different disease manifestations, according to severity, treatment, and environment. The aim of this study was to provide population-representative YLDs of noncommunicable diseases and injuries using a prevalence-based approach, with the disability weight measured in subjects with specific diseases or injuries. We included a total of 44969 adults, who completed the EQ-5D questionnaire as participation in the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2007–2014. We estimated the prevalence of each of 40 conditions identified from the noncommunicable diseases and injuries in the WHO list. Modified condition-specific disability-weight was determined from the adjusted mean difference of the EQ-5D index between the condition and reference groups. Condition-specific YLDs were calculated as the condition’s prevalence multiplied by the condition’s disability-weight. All-cause YLDs, estimated as “number of population × (1 − mean score of EQ-5D)” were 2165 thousands in 39044 thousand adults aged ≥20. The combined YLDs for all 40 conditions accounted for 67.6% of all-cause YLDs, and were 1604, 2126, 8749, and 12847 per 100000 young (age 20−59) males, young females, old (age ≥60) males, and old females, respectively. Back pain/osteoarthritis YLDs were exceptionally large (442/40, 864/146, 2037/836, and 4644/3039 per 100000 young males, young females, old males, and old females, respectively). Back pain, osteoarthritis, depression, diabetes, periodontitis, and stroke accounted for 22.3%, 9.1%, 4.6%, 3.3%, 3.2%, and 2.9% of all-cause YLDs, respectively. In conclusion, this estimation of YLDs using prevalence rates and disability-weights measured in a population-representative survey may form the basis for population-level strategies to prevent age

Overconfidence in Interval Estimates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Soll, Jack B.; Klayman, Joshua

2004-01-01

Judges were asked to make numerical estimates (e.g., "In what year was the first flight of a hot air balloon?"). Judges provided high and low estimates such that they were X% sure that the correct answer lay between them. They exhibited substantial overconfidence: The correct answer fell inside their intervals much less than X% of the time. This…

Prevalence of past-year dental visit among US adults, 1999-2010: comparison of trends and estimates between the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and three national surveys.

PubMed

Lin, Mei; Li, Chien-Hsun; Wei, Liang; Naavaal, Shillpa; Kolavic Gray, Shellie; Manz, Michael C; Barker, Laurie

2017-03-01

To compare estimated prevalence of past-year dental visit (PPYDV) among US adults aged ≥18 years from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) to estimates from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS), National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), and National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). We estimated PPYDV adjusted for covariates (age, race/ethnicity, education level, poverty status, edentulism) using BRFSS, MEPS, and NHIS 1999-2010, and NHANES 1999-2004. We tested trend in overall PPYDV for BRFSS, MEPS, and NHIS from 1999-2010. For 2002 and 2010, we calculated absolute differences (AD) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) in PPYDV between BRFSS and each of the other surveys overall and among subpopulations defined by covariates. We pooled NHANES 1999-2004 data for comparison with BRFSS 2002. From 1999 to 2010, BRFSS (68.5% vs. 67.5%), MEPS (43.5% vs. 39.7%), and NHIS (63.3% vs. 59.7%) showed small but significant decreases in overall PPYDV. In 2002, estimates for overall PPYDV were highest for BRFSS (70.0%) and lowest for MEPS (43.9%) with estimates for NHIS (61.5%) and NHANES (1999-2004: 58.1%) in between; the largest AD (26.2%, 95% CI: 25.0%-27.3%) was between BRFSS and MEPS. ADs were consistent in 2002 and 2010, overall and by covariates, except among edentate persons, where PPYDV estimates from BRFSS and NHIS were similar. Estimates of PPYDV from BRFSS were notably higher than estimates from MEPS, NHIS, or NHANES except among the edentate. Trends in PPYDV over time, however, were consistent across all surveys. © 2016 American Association of Public Health Dentistry.

Estimation of toxicity using the Toxicity Estimation Software Tool (TEST)

EPA Science Inventory

Tens of thousands of chemicals are currently in commerce, and hundreds more are introduced every year. Since experimental measurements of toxicity are extremely time consuming and expensive, it is imperative that alternative methods to estimate toxicity are developed.

National Aeronautics and Space Administration Budget Estimates, Fiscal Year 2011

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2010-01-01

The Budget includes three new robust exploration programs: (1) Technology demonstration program, $7.8 five years. Funds the development and demonstration of technologies that reduce the cost and expand the capabilities of future exploration activities, including in-orbit refueling and storage. (2) Heavy-Lift and Propulsion R&D, $3.1 billion over five years. Funds R&D for new launch systems, propellants, materials, and combustion processes. (3) Robotic precursor missions, $3.0 billion over five years. Funds cost-effective means to scout exploration targets and identify hazards and resources for human visitation and habitation. In addition, the Budget enhances the current Human Research Program by 42%; and supports the Participatory Exploration Program at 5 million per year for activities across many NASA programs.

Spring Small Grains Area Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palmer, W. F.; Mohler, R. J.

1986-01-01

SSG3 automatically estimates acreage of spring small grains from Landsat data. Report describes development and testing of a computerized technique for using Landsat multispectral scanner (MSS) data to estimate acreage of spring small grains (wheat, barley, and oats). Application of technique to analysis of four years of data from United States and Canada yielded estimates of accuracy comparable to those obtained through procedures that rely on trained analysis.

Overview and Assessment of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Mass Balance Estimates: 1992-2009

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zwally, H. Jay; Giovinetto, Mario B.

2011-01-01

Mass balance estimates for the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) in the 2007 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and in more recent reports lie between approximately ?50 to -250 Gt/year for 1992 to 2009. The 300 Gt/year range is approximately 15% of the annual mass input and 0.8 mm/year Sea Level Equivalent (SLE). Two estimates from radar altimeter measurements of elevation change by European Remote-sensing Satellites (ERS) (?28 and -31 Gt/year) lie in the upper part, whereas estimates from the Input-minus-Output Method (IOM) and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) lie in the lower part (-40 to -246 Gt/year). We compare the various estimates, discuss the methodology used, and critically assess the results. We also modify the IOM estimate using (1) an alternate extrapolation to estimate the discharge from the non-observed 15% of the periphery, and (2) substitution of input from a field data compilation for input from an atmospheric model in 6% of area. The modified IOM estimate reduces the loss from 136 Gt/year to 13 Gt/year. Two ERS-based estimates, the modified IOM, and a GRACE-based estimate for observations within 1992 2005 lie in a narrowed range of ?27 to -40 Gt/year, which is about 3% of the annual mass input and only 0.2 mm/year SLE. Our preferred estimate for 1992 2001 is -47 Gt/year for West Antarctica, ?16 Gt/year for East Antarctica, and -31 Gt/year overall (?0.1 mm/year SLE), not including part of the Antarctic Peninsula (1.07% of the AIS area). Although recent reports of large and increasing rates of mass loss with time from GRACE-based studies cite agreement with IOM results, our evaluation does not support that conclusion

Estimating Foodborne Gastroenteritis, Australia

PubMed Central

Kirk, Martyn D.; Becker, Niels; Gregory, Joy E.; Unicomb, Leanne; Millard, Geoffrey; Stafford, Russell; Lalor, Karin

2005-01-01

We estimated for Australia the number of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths due to foodborne gastroenteritis in a typical year, circa 2000. The total amount of infectious gastroenteritis was measured by using a national telephone survey. The foodborne proportion was estimated from Australian data on each of 16 pathogens. To account for uncertainty, we used simulation techniques to calculate 95% credibility intervals (CrI). The estimate of incidence of gastroenteritis in Australia is 17.2 million (95% confidence interval 14.5–19.9 million) cases per year. We estimate that 32% (95% CrI 24%–40%) are foodborne, which equals 0.3 (95% CrI 0.2–0.4) episodes per person, or 5.4 million (95% CrI 4.0–6.9 million) cases annually in Australia. Norovirus, enteropathogenic Escherichia coli, Campylobacter spp., and Salmonella spp. cause the most illnesses. In addition, foodborne gastroenteritis causes ≈15,000 (95% CrI 11,000–18,000) hospitalizations and 80 (95% CrI 40–120) deaths annually. This study highlights global public health concerns about foodborne diseases and the need for standardized methods, including assessment of uncertainty, for international comparison. PMID:16102316

Using multi-year national survey cohorts for period estimates: an application of weighted discrete Poisson regression for assessing annual national mortality in US adults with and without diabetes, 2000-2006.

PubMed

Cheng, Yiling J; Gregg, Edward W; Rolka, Deborah B; Thompson, Theodore J

2016-12-15

Monitoring national mortality among persons with a disease is important to guide and evaluate progress in disease control and prevention. However, a method to estimate nationally representative annual mortality among persons with and without diabetes in the United States does not currently exist. The aim of this study is to demonstrate use of weighted discrete Poisson regression on national survey mortality follow-up data to estimate annual mortality rates among adults with diabetes. To estimate mortality among US adults with diabetes, we applied a weighted discrete time-to-event Poisson regression approach with post-stratification adjustment to national survey data. Adult participants aged 18 or older with and without diabetes in the National Health Interview Survey 1997-2004 were followed up through 2006 for mortality status. We estimated mortality among all US adults, and by self-reported diabetes status at baseline. The time-varying covariates used were age and calendar year. Mortality among all US adults was validated using direct estimates from the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS). Using our approach, annual all-cause mortality among all US adults ranged from 8.8 deaths per 1,000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI]: 8.0, 9.6) in year 2000 to 7.9 (95% CI: 7.6, 8.3) in year 2006. By comparison, the NVSS estimates ranged from 8.6 to 7.9 (correlation = 0.94). All-cause mortality among persons with diabetes decreased from 35.7 (95% CI: 28.4, 42.9) in 2000 to 31.8 (95% CI: 28.5, 35.1) in 2006. After adjusting for age, sex, and race/ethnicity, persons with diabetes had 2.1 (95% CI: 2.01, 2.26) times the risk of death of those without diabetes. Period-specific national mortality can be estimated for people with and without a chronic condition using national surveys with mortality follow-up and a discrete time-to-event Poisson regression approach with post-stratification adjustment.

Assessment of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Mass Balance Estimates: 1992 - 2009

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zwally, H. Jay; Giovinetto, Mario B.

2011-01-01

Published mass balance estimates for the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) lie between approximately +50 to -250 Gt/year for 1992 to 2009, which span a range equivalent to 15% of the annual mass input and 0.8 mm/year Sea Level Equivalent (SLE). Two estimates from radar-altimeter measurements of elevation change by European Remote-sensing Satellites (ERS) (+28 and -31 Gt/year) lie in the upper part, whereas estimates from the Input-minus-Output Method (IOM) and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) lie in the lower part (-40 to -246 Gt/year). We compare the various estimates, discuss the methodology used, and critically assess the results. Although recent reports of large and accelerating rates of mass loss from GRACE=based studies cite agreement with IOM results, our evaluation does not support that conclusion. We find that the extrapolation used in the published IOM estimates for the 15 % of the periphery for which discharge velocities are not observed gives twice the rate of discharge per unit of associated ice-sheet area than the 85% faster-moving parts. Our calculations show that the published extrapolation overestimates the ice discharge by 282 Gt/yr compared to our assumption that the slower moving areas have 70% as much discharge per area as the faster moving parts. Also, published data on the time-series of discharge velocities and accumulation/precipitation do not support mass output increases or input decreases with time, respectively. Our modified IOM estimate, using the 70% discharge assumption and substituting input from a field-data compilation for input from an atmospheric model over 6% of area, gives a loss of only 13 Gt/year (versus 136 Gt/year) for the period around 2000. Two ERS-based estimates, our modified IOM, and a GRACE-based estimate for observations within 1992 to 2005 lie in a narrowed range of +27 to - 40 Gt/year, which is about 3% of the annual mass input and only 0.2 mm/year SLE. Our preferred estimate for 1992-2001 is - 47 Gt/year

Estimates of HIV burden in emergencies

PubMed Central

Lowicki-Zucca, M; Spiegel, P B; Kelly, S; Dehne, K-L; Walker, N; Ghys, P D

2008-01-01

Objective: To quantify the proportion of people living with HIV who are being affected by emergencies. Methods: Emergencies were defined as conflict, natural disaster and/or displacement. Country-specific estimates of populations affected by emergencies were developed based on eight publicly available databases and sources. These estimates were calculated as proportions and then combined with updated country-level HIV estimates for the years 2003, 2005 and 2006 to obtain estimates of the number of men, women and children living with HIV who were also affected by emergencies. Results: In 2006, 1.8 (range 1.3–2.5) million people living with HIV (PLHIV) were also affected by conflict, disaster or displacement, representing 5.4% (range 4.0–7.6%) of the global number of PLHIV. In the same year, an estimated 930 000 (range 660 000–1.3 million) women and 150 000 (range 110 000–230 000) children under 15 years living with HIV were affected by emergencies. In emergency settings, the estimated numbers of PLHIV in 2003 and 2005 were 2.6 million (range 2.0–3.4 million) and 1.7 million (range 1.4–2.1 million), respectively, representing 7.9% and 5.1% of the global number of PLHIV). Conclusions: These estimates provide a rationale to ensure that HIV interventions are integrated into rapid assessment of all emergency and preparedness and response plans to prevent HIV infections and address excess suffering, morbidity and mortality among these often overlooked vulnerable groups. PMID:18647865

New Estimates of Incidence of Encephalitis in England

PubMed Central

Cousens, Simon; Davies, Nicholas W.S.; Crowcroft, Natasha S.; Thomas, Sara L.

2013-01-01

Encephalitis causes high rates of illness and death, yet its epidemiology remains poorly understood. To improve incidence estimates in England and inform priority setting and treatment and prevention strategies, we used hospitalization data to estimate incidence of infectious and noninfectious encephalitis during 2005–2009. Hospitalization data were linked to a dataset of extensively investigated cases of encephalitis from a prospective study, and capture–recapture models were applied. Incidence was estimated from unlinked hospitalization data as 4.32 cases/100,000 population/year. Capture–recapture models gave a best estimate of encephalitis incidence of 5.23 cases/100,000/year, although the models’ indicated incidence could be as high as 8.66 cases/100,000/year. This analysis indicates that the incidence of encephalitis in England is considerably higher than previously estimated. Therefore, encephalitis should be a greater priority for clinicians, researchers, and public health officials. PMID:23969035

[Age and time estimation during different types of activity].

PubMed

Gareev, E M; Osipova, L G

1980-01-01

The study was concerned with the age characteristics of verbal and operative estimation of time intervals filled with different types of mental and physical activity as well as those free of it. The experiment was conducted on 85 subjects, 7--24 years of age. In all age groups and in both forms of time estimation (except verbal estimation in 10--12 years old children) there was a significant connection between the interval estimation and the type of activity. In adults and in 7--8 years old children, the connection was significantly tighter in operative estimations than in verbal ones. Unlike senior school children and adults, in 7--12 years old children there were sharp differences in precision between operative and verbal estimations and a discordance of their changes under the influence of activity. Precision and variability were rather similar in all age groups. It is suggested that the obtained data show heterochronity and a different rate of development of the higher nervous activity mechanisms providing for reflection of time in the form of verbal and voluntary motor reactions to the given interval.

Estimating flood magnitude and frequency at gaged and ungaged sites on streams in Alaska and conterminous basins in Canada, based on data through water year 2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Curran, Janet H.; Barth, Nancy A.; Veilleux, Andrea G.; Ourso, Robert T.

2016-03-16

Estimates of the magnitude and frequency of floods are needed across Alaska for engineering design of transportation and water-conveyance structures, flood-insurance studies, flood-plain management, and other water-resource purposes. This report updates methods for estimating flood magnitude and frequency in Alaska and conterminous basins in Canada. Annual peak-flow data through water year 2012 were compiled from 387 streamgages on unregulated streams with at least 10 years of record. Flood-frequency estimates were computed for each streamgage using the Expected Moments Algorithm to fit a Pearson Type III distribution to the logarithms of annual peak flows. A multiple Grubbs-Beck test was used to identify potentially influential low floods in the time series of peak flows for censoring in the flood frequency analysis.For two new regional skew areas, flood-frequency estimates using station skew were computed for stations with at least 25 years of record for use in a Bayesian least-squares regression analysis to determine a regional skew value. The consideration of basin characteristics as explanatory variables for regional skew resulted in improvements in precision too small to warrant the additional model complexity, and a constant model was adopted. Regional Skew Area 1 in eastern-central Alaska had a regional skew of 0.54 and an average variance of prediction of 0.45, corresponding to an effective record length of 22 years. Regional Skew Area 2, encompassing coastal areas bordering the Gulf of Alaska, had a regional skew of 0.18 and an average variance of prediction of 0.12, corresponding to an effective record length of 59 years. Station flood-frequency estimates for study sites in regional skew areas were then recomputed using a weighted skew incorporating the station skew and regional skew. In a new regional skew exclusion area outside the regional skew areas, the density of long-record streamgages was too sparse for regional analysis and station skew was used

Yield estimation of sugarcane based on agrometeorological-spectral models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rudorff, Bernardo Friedrich Theodor; Batista, Getulio Teixeira

1990-01-01

This work has the objective to assess the performance of a yield estimation model for sugarcane (Succharum officinarum). The model uses orbital gathered spectral data along with yield estimated from an agrometeorological model. The test site includes the sugarcane plantations of the Barra Grande Plant located in Lencois Paulista municipality in Sao Paulo State. Production data of four crop years were analyzed. Yield data observed in the first crop year (1983/84) were regressed against spectral and agrometeorological data of that same year. This provided the model to predict the yield for the following crop year i.e., 1984/85. The model to predict the yield of subsequent years (up to 1987/88) were developed similarly, incorporating all previous years data. The yield estimations obtained from these models explained 69, 54, and 50 percent of the yield variation in the 1984/85, 1985/86, and 1986/87 crop years, respectively. The accuracy of yield estimations based on spectral data only (vegetation index model) and on agrometeorological data only (agrometeorological model) were also investigated.

Estimating current and future global urban domestic material consumption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baynes, Timothy Malcolm; Kaviti Musango, Josephine

2018-06-01

Urban material resource requirements are significant at the global level and these are expected to expand with future urban population growth. However, there are no global scale studies on the future material consumption of urban areas. This paper provides estimates of global urban domestic material consumption (DMC) in 2050 using three approaches based on: current gross statistics; a regression model; and a transition theoretic logistic model. All methods use UN urban population projections and assume a simple ‘business-as-usual’ scenario wherein historical aggregate trends in income and material flow continue into the future. A collation of data for 152 cities provided a year 2000 world average DMC/capita estimate, 12 tons/person/year (±22%), which we combined with UN population projections to produce a first-order estimation of urban DMC at 2050 of ~73 billion tons/year (±22%). Urban DMC/capita was found to be significantly correlated (R 2 > 0.9) to urban GDP/capita and area per person through a power law relation used to obtain a second estimate of 106 billion tons (±33%) in 2050. The inelastic exponent of the power law indicates a global tendency for relative decoupling of direct urban material consumption with increasing income. These estimates are global and influenced by the current proportion of developed-world cities in the global population of cities (and in our sample data). A third method employed a logistic model of transitions in urban DMC/capita with regional resolution. This method estimated global urban DMC to rise from approximately 40 billion tons/year in 2010 to ~90 billion tons/year in 2050 (modelled range: 66–111 billion tons/year). DMC/capita across different regions was estimated to converge from a range of 5–27 tons/person/year in the year 2000 to around 8–17 tons/person/year in 2050. The urban population does not increase proportionally during this period and thus the global average DMC/capita increases from ~12 to ~14 tons/person/year

Factors influencing seasonal influenza vaccination behaviour among elderly people: a systematic review.

PubMed

Kan, T; Zhang, J

2018-03-01

To explore the behaviour-related factors influencing influenza vaccination among elderly people using a framework derived from the Health Belief Model (HBM) and the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA). Systematic review. Five databases were searched using predetermined strategies in March 2016, and 1927 citations were identified. Articles were selected according to inclusion and exclusion criteria. Key information was extracted from selected studies using a predesigned sheet. Both authors assessed study quality using the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) or Critical Appraisal Skills Programme (CASP) checklist. Thirty-six articles were selected. A new framework was proposed that contributes to shared understanding of factors influencing health behaviour. Possible determinants of influenza vaccination among elderly people were knowledge, health promotion factors, all constructs of the HBM, and some concepts of the TRA. Key factors were threat perception, behavioural beliefs, subjective norms, recommendations, past behaviour and perceived barriers. This is the first systematic review to analyse the factors influencing influenza vaccination behaviour of elderly people using a framework integrating the HBM and the TRA. The framework identified key factors of influenza vaccination and presented the inter-relation of behaviour-related variables. However, further well-designed studies are required to explore the inter-relationships accurately and comprehensively. Copyright © 2017 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Is the cluster environment quenching the Seyfert activity in elliptical and spiral galaxies?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Souza, R. S.; Dantas, M. L. L.; Krone-Martins, A.; Cameron, E.; Coelho, P.; Hattab, M. W.; de Val-Borro, M.; Hilbe, J. M.; Elliott, J.; Hagen, A.; COIN Collaboration

2016-09-01

We developed a hierarchical Bayesian model (HBM) to investigate how the presence of Seyfert activity relates to their environment, herein represented by the galaxy cluster mass, M200, and the normalized cluster centric distance, r/r200. We achieved this by constructing an unbiased sample of galaxies from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, with morphological classifications provided by the Galaxy Zoo Project. A propensity score matching approach is introduced to control the effects of confounding variables: stellar mass, galaxy colour, and star formation rate. The connection between Seyfert-activity and environmental properties in the de-biased sample is modelled within an HBM framework using the so-called logistic regression technique, suitable for the analysis of binary data (e.g. whether or not a galaxy hosts an AGN). Unlike standard ordinary least square fitting methods, our methodology naturally allows modelling the probability of Seyfert-AGN activity in galaxies on their natural scale, I.e. as a binary variable. Furthermore, we demonstrate how an HBM can incorporate information of each particular galaxy morphological type in an unified framework. In elliptical galaxies our analysis indicates a strong correlation of Seyfert-AGN activity with r/r200, and a weaker correlation with the mass of the host cluster. In spiral galaxies these trends do not appear, suggesting that the link between Seyfert activity and the properties of spiral galaxies are independent of the environment.

Detection of BRAF V600 Mutations in Melanoma: Evaluation of Concordance between the Cobas® 4800 BRAF V600 Mutation Test and the Methods Used in French National Cancer Institute (INCa) Platforms in a Real-Life Setting

PubMed Central

Mourah, Samia; Denis, Marc G.; Narducci, Fabienne Escande; Solassol, Jérôme; Merlin, Jean-Louis; Sabourin, Jean-Christophe; Scoazec, Jean-Yves; Ouafik, L’Houcine; Emile, Jean-François; Heller, Remy; Souvignet, Claude; Bergougnoux, Loïc; Merlio, Jean-Philippe

2015-01-01

Vemurafenib is approved for the treatment of metastatic melanoma in patients with BRAF V600 mutation. In pivotal clinical trials, BRAF testing has always been done with the approved cobas 4800 BRAF test. In routine practice, several methods are available and are used according to the laboratories usual procedures. A national, multicenter, non-interventional study was conducted with prospective and consecutive collection of tumor samples. A parallel evaluation was performed in routine practice between the cobas 4800 BRAF V600 mutation test and home brew methods (HBMs) of 12 national laboratories, labelled and funded by the French National Cancer Institute (INCa). For 420 melanoma samples tested, the cobas method versus HBM showed a high concordance (93.3%; kappa = 0.86) in BRAF V600 genotyping with similar mutation rates (34.0% versus 35.7%, respectively). Overall, 97.4% and 98.6% of samples gave valid results using the cobas and HBM, respectively. Of the 185 samples strictly fulfilling the cobas guidelines, the concordance rate was even higher (95.7%; kappa = 0.91; 95%CI [0.85; 0.97]). Out of the 420 samples tested, 28 (6.7%) showed discordance between HBM and cobas. This prospective study shows a high concordance rate between the cobas 4800 BRAF V600 test and home brew methods in the routine detection of BRAF V600E mutations. PMID:25789737

A revised load estimation procedure for the Susquehanna, Potomac, Patuxent, and Choptank rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yochum, Steven E.

2000-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey?s Chesapeake Bay River Input Program has updated the nutrient and suspended-sediment load data base for the Susquehanna, Potomac, Patuxent, and Choptank Rivers using a multiple-window, center-estimate regression methodology. The revised method optimizes the seven-parameter regression approach that has been used historically by the program. The revised method estimates load using the fifth or center year of a sliding 9-year window. Each year a new model is run for each site and constituent, the most recent year is added, and the previous 4 years of estimates are updated. The fifth year in the 9-year window is considered the best estimate and is kept in the data base. The last year of estimation shows the most change from the previous year?s estimate and this change approaches a minimum at the fifth year. Differences between loads computed using this revised methodology and the loads populating the historical data base have been noted but the load estimates do not typically change drastically. The data base resulting from the application of this revised methodology is populated by annual and monthly load estimates that are known with greater certainty than in the previous load data base.

NASA Software Cost Estimation Model: An Analogy Based Estimation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hihn, Jairus; Juster, Leora; Menzies, Tim; Mathew, George; Johnson, James

2015-01-01

The cost estimation of software development activities is increasingly critical for large scale integrated projects such as those at DOD and NASA especially as the software systems become larger and more complex. As an example MSL (Mars Scientific Laboratory) developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory launched with over 2 million lines of code making it the largest robotic spacecraft ever flown (Based on the size of the software). Software development activities are also notorious for their cost growth, with NASA flight software averaging over 50% cost growth. All across the agency, estimators and analysts are increasingly being tasked to develop reliable cost estimates in support of program planning and execution. While there has been extensive work on improving parametric methods there is very little focus on the use of models based on analogy and clustering algorithms. In this paper we summarize our findings on effort/cost model estimation and model development based on ten years of software effort estimation research using data mining and machine learning methods to develop estimation models based on analogy and clustering. The NASA Software Cost Model performance is evaluated by comparing it to COCOMO II, linear regression, and K-­ nearest neighbor prediction model performance on the same data set.

Estimating tree biomass, carbon, and nitrogen in two vegetation control treatments in an 11-year-old Douglas-fir plantation on a highly productive site

Treesearch

Warren D. Devine; Paul W. Footen; Robert B. Harrison; Thomas A. Terry; Constance A. Harrington; Scott M. Holub; Peter J. Gould

2013-01-01

We sampled trees grown with and without competing vegetation control in an 11-year-old Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) plantation on a highly productive site in southwestern Washington to create diameter based allometric equations for estimating individual-tree bole, branch, foliar, and total...

Estimated freshwater withdrawals in Washington, 2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lane, Ron C.; Welch, Wendy B.

2015-03-18

The amount of public- and self-supplied water used for domestic, irrigation, livestock, aquaculture, industrial, mining, and thermoelectric power was estimated for state, county, and eastern and western regions of Washington during calendar year 2010. Withdrawals of freshwater for offstream uses were estimated to be about 4,885 million gallons per day. The total estimated freshwater withdrawals for 2010 was approximately 15 percent less than the 2005 estimate because of decreases in irrigation and thermoelectric power withdrawals.

26 CFR 1.1502-5 - Estimated tax.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

.... The consolidated payments of estimated tax shall be deposited with the authorized financial...) INCOME TAXES Consolidated Tax Liability § 1.1502-5 Estimated tax. (a) General rule—(1) Consolidated estimated tax. If a group files a consolidated return for two consecutive taxable years, it must make...

Health-related quality of life among adults 65 years and older in the United States, 2011-2012: a multilevel small area estimation approach.

PubMed

Lin, Yu-Hsiu; McLain, Alexander C; Probst, Janice C; Bennett, Kevin J; Qureshi, Zaina P; Eberth, Jan M

2017-01-01

The purpose of this study was to develop county-level estimates of poor health-related quality of life (HRQOL) among aged 65 years and older U.S. adults and to identify spatial clusters of poor HRQOL using a multilevel, poststratification approach. Multilevel, random-intercept models were fit to HRQOL data (two domains: physical health and mental health) from the 2011-2012 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. Using a poststratification, small area estimation approach, we generated county-level probabilities of having poor HRQOL for each domain in U.S. adults aged 65 and older, and validated our model-based estimates against state and county direct estimates. County-level estimates of poor HRQOL in the United States ranged from 18.07% to 44.81% for physical health and 14.77% to 37.86% for mental health. Correlations between model-based and direct estimates were higher for physical than mental HRQOL. Counties located in the Arkansas, Kentucky, and Mississippi exhibited the worst physical HRQOL scores, but this pattern did not hold for mental HRQOL, which had the highest probability of mentally unhealthy days in Illinois, Indiana, and Vermont. Substantial geographic variation in physical and mental HRQOL scores exists among older U.S. adults. State and local policy makers should consider these local conditions in targeting interventions and policies to counties with high levels of poor HRQOL scores. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimated cost of overactive bladder in Thailand.

PubMed

Prasopsanti, Kriangsak; Santi-Ngamkun, Apirak; Pornprasit, Kanokwan

2007-11-01

To estimate the annual direct and indirect costs of overactive bladder (OAB) in indigenous Thai people aged 18 years and over in the year 2005. Economically based models using diagnostic and treatment algorithms from clinical practice guidelines and current disease prevalence data were used to estimate direct and indirect costs of OAB. Prevalence and event probability estimates were obtained from the literature, national data sets, and expert opinion. Costs were estimated from a small survey using a cost questionnaire and from unit costs of King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital. The annual cost of OAB in Thailand is estimated as 1.9 billion USD. It is estimated to consume 1.14% of national GDP The cost includes 0.33 billion USD for direct medical costs, 1.3 billion USD for direct, nonmedical costs and 0.29 billion USD for indirect costs of lost productivity. The largest costs category was direct treatment costs of comorbidities associated with OAB. Costs of OAB medication accountedfor 14% of the total costs ofOAB.

A psychosocial approach to dentistry for the underserved: incorporating theory into practice.

PubMed

Flaer, Paul J; Younis, Mustafa Z; Benjamin, Paul L; Al Hajeri, Maha

2010-01-01

Dentistry for the underserved is more than an egalitarian social issue--it is a key factor in the health and social progress of our nation. The first signs or manifestations of several diseases such as varicella (i.e., chicken pox and shingles), STDs, and influenza become apparent in the oral cavity. The value of access to quality dentistry is an immeasurable factor in maintaining general medical health of people and fulfilling their psychosocial needs of pain reduction and enhanced cosmetics. In the United States, for the most part, only the middle and upper classes receive non-extraction, restorative, and prosthetic dentistry that is economically within their ability to pay. In addition, uninsured and poverty-level individuals often must face overwhelming long waiting lists, unnecessary referrals, lack of choice, and bureaucratic hurdles when seeking primary dental care. Therefore, it seems pertinent to put forth the question: What are the critical values and beliefs of psychosocial theory that can underscore the practice of dentistry for underserved populations in the United States? The widely employed public health theory, the health belief model (HBM), is applied to evaluate psychosocial factors in dental care for the underserved. The HBM is used to predict and explain behavioral changes in dental health and associated belief patterns. The HBM as applied to dentistry for the underserved predicts self-perceptions of susceptibility and seriousness of dental disease, health status, cues to action, and self-efficacy. Furthermore, patients can make judgments about benefits, costs, and risks of dental treatment. A theoretical approach to dentistry employing the HBM, mediated by values and culture, can provide significant insights into patient thinking, beliefs, and perceptions. These insights can mediate access to and use of primary care dental services by underserved populations. Evidence-based practice (i.e., based on research using the scientific method) has been

Normal hematopoiesis and lack of β-catenin activation in osteoblasts of patients and mice harboring Lrp5 gain-of-function mutations.

PubMed

Galán-Díez, Marta; Isa, Adiba; Ponzetti, Marco; Nielsen, Morten Frost; Kassem, Moustapha; Kousteni, Stavroula

2016-03-01

Osteoblasts are emerging regulators of myeloid malignancies since genetic alterations in them, such as constitutive activation of β-catenin, instigate their appearance. The LDL receptor-related protein 5 (LRP5), initially proposed to be a co-receptor for Wnt proteins, in fact favors bone formation by suppressing gut-serotonin synthesis. This function of Lrp5 occurring in the gut is independent of β-catenin activation in osteoblasts. However, it is unknown whether Lrp5 can act directly in osteoblast to influence other functions that require β-catenin signaling, particularly, the deregulation of hematopoiesis and leukemogenic properties of β-catenin activation in osteoblasts, that lead to development of acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Using mice with gain-of-function (GOF) Lrp5 alleles (Lrp5(A214V)) that recapitulate the human high bone mass (HBM) phenotype, as well as patients with the T253I HBM Lrp5 mutation, we show here that Lrp5 GOF mutations in both humans and mice do not activate β-catenin signaling in osteoblasts. Consistent with a lack of β-catenin activation in their osteoblasts, Lrp5(A214V) mice have normal trilinear hematopoiesis. In contrast to leukemic mice with constitutive activation of β-catenin in osteoblasts (Ctnnb1(CAosb)), accumulation of early myeloid progenitors, a characteristic of AML, myeloid-blasts in blood, and segmented neutrophils or dysplastic megakaryocytes in the bone marrow, are not observed in Lrp5(A214V) mice. Likewise, peripheral blood count analysis in HBM patients showed normal hematopoiesis, normal percentage of myeloid cells, and lack of anemia. We conclude that Lrp5 GOF mutations do not activate β-catenin signaling in osteoblasts. As a result, myeloid lineage differentiation is normal in HBM patients and mice. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled: Tumor Microenvironment Regulation of Cancer Cell Survival, Metastasis, Inflammation, and Immune Surveillance edited by Peter Ruvolo and Gregg L. Semenza. Published

Ground-water pumpage and artificial recharge estimates for calendar year 2000 and average annual natural recharge and interbasin flow by hydrographic area, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lopes, Thomas J.; Evetts, David M.

2004-01-01

Nevada's reliance on ground-water resources has increased because of increased development and surface-water resources being fully appropriated. The need to accurately quantify Nevada's water resources and water use is more critical than ever to meet future demands. Estimated ground-water pumpage, artificial and natural recharge, and interbasin flow can be used to help evaluate stresses on aquifer systems. In this report, estimates of ground-water pumpage and artificial recharge during calendar year 2000 were made using data from a variety of sources, such as reported estimates and estimates made using Landsat satellite imagery. Average annual natural recharge and interbasin flow were compiled from published reports. An estimated 1,427,100 acre-feet of ground water was pumped in Nevada during calendar year 2000. This total was calculated by summing six categories of ground-water pumpage, based on water use. Total artificial recharge during 2000 was about 145,970 acre-feet. At least one estimate of natural recharge was available for 209 of the 232 hydrographic areas (HAs). Natural recharge for the 209 HAs ranges from 1,793,420 to 2,583,150 acre-feet. Estimates of interbasin flow were available for 151 HAs. The categories and their percentage of the total ground-water pumpage are irrigation and stock watering (47 percent), mining (26 percent), water systems (14 percent), geothermal production (8 percent), self-supplied domestic (4 percent), and miscellaneous (less than 1 percent). Pumpage in the top 10 HAs accounted for about 49 percent of the total ground-water pumpage. The most ground-water pumpage in an HA was due to mining in Pumpernickel Valley (HA 65), Boulder Flat (HA 61), and Lower Reese River Valley (HA 59). Pumpage by water systems in Las Vegas Valley (HA 212) and Truckee Meadows (HA 87) were the fourth and fifth highest pumpage in 2000, respectively. Irrigation and stock watering pumpage accounted for most ground-water withdrawals in the HAs with the sixth

Uncertainties in extreme surge level estimates from observational records.

PubMed

van den Brink, H W; Können, G P; Opsteegh, J D

2005-06-15

Ensemble simulations with a total length of 7540 years are generated with a climate model, and coupled to a simple surge model to transform the wind field over the North Sea to the skew surge level at Delfzijl, The Netherlands. The 65 constructed surge records, each with a record length of 116 years, are analysed with the generalized extreme value (GEV) and the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to study both the model and sample uncertainty in surge level estimates with a return period of 104 years, as derived from 116-year records. The optimal choice of the threshold, needed for an unbiased GPD estimate from peak over threshold (POT) values, cannot be determined objectively from a 100-year dataset. This fact, in combination with the sensitivity of the GPD estimate to the threshold, and its tendency towards too low estimates, leaves the application of the GEV distribution to storm-season maxima as the best approach. If the GPD analysis is applied, then the exceedance rate, lambda, chosen should not be larger than 4. The climate model hints at the existence of a second population of very intense storms. As the existence of such a second population can never be excluded from a 100-year record, the estimated 104-year wind-speed from such records has always to be interpreted as a lower limit.

Data Service Provider Cost Estimation Tool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fontaine, Kathy; Hunolt, Greg; Booth, Arthur L.; Banks, Mel

2011-01-01

The Data Service Provider Cost Estimation Tool (CET) and Comparables Database (CDB) package provides to NASA s Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) the ability to estimate the full range of year-by-year lifecycle cost estimates for the implementation and operation of data service providers required by ESE to support its science and applications programs. The CET can make estimates dealing with staffing costs, supplies, facility costs, network services, hardware and maintenance, commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) software licenses, software development and sustaining engineering, and the changes in costs that result from changes in workload. Data Service Providers may be stand-alone or embedded in flight projects, field campaigns, research or applications projects, or other activities. The CET and CDB package employs a cost-estimation-by-analogy approach. It is based on a new, general data service provider reference model that provides a framework for construction of a database by describing existing data service providers that are analogs (or comparables) to planned, new ESE data service providers. The CET implements the staff effort and cost estimation algorithms that access the CDB and generates the lifecycle cost estimate for a new data services provider. This data creates a common basis for an ESE proposal evaluator for considering projected data service provider costs.

Estimation of daily mean streamflow for ungaged stream locations in the Delaware River Basin, water years 1960–2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stuckey, Marla H.

2016-06-09

The ability to characterize baseline streamflow conditions, compare them with current conditions, and assess effects of human activities on streamflow is fundamental to water-management programs addressing water allocation, human-health issues, recreation needs, and establishment of ecological flow criteria. The U.S. Geological Survey, through the National Water Census, has developed the Delaware River Basin Streamflow Estimator Tool (DRB-SET) to estimate baseline (minimally altered) and altered (affected by regulation, diversion, mining, or other anthropogenic activities) and altered streamflow at a daily time step for ungaged stream locations in the Delaware River Basin for water years 1960–2010. Daily mean baseline streamflow is estimated by using the QPPQ method to equate streamflow expressed as a percentile from the flow-duration curve (FDC) for a particular day at an ungaged stream location with the percentile from a FDC for the same day at a hydrologically similar gaged location where streamflow is measured. Parameter-based regression equations were developed for 22 exceedance probabilities from the FDC for ungaged stream locations in the Delaware River Basin. Water use data from 2010 is used to adjust the baseline daily mean streamflow generated from the QPPQ method at ungaged stream locations in the Delaware River Basin to reflect current, or altered, conditions. To evaluate the effectiveness of the overall QPPQ method contained within DRB-SET, a comparison of observed and estimated daily mean streamflows was performed for 109 reference streamgages in and near the Delaware River Basin. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values were computed as a measure of goodness of fit. The NSE values (using log10 streamflow values) ranged from 0.22 to 0.98 (median of 0.90) for 45 streamgages in the Upper Delaware River Basin and from -0.37 to 0.98 (median of 0.79) for 41 streamgages in the Lower Delaware River Basin.

Baseline intrinsic flammability of Earth's ecosystems estimated from paleoatmospheric oxygen over the past 350 million years.

PubMed

Belcher, Claire M; Yearsley, Jonathan M; Hadden, Rory M; McElwain, Jennifer C; Rein, Guillermo

2010-12-28

Atmospheric oxygen (O(2)) is estimated to have varied greatly throughout Earth's history and has been capable of influencing wildfire activity wherever fuel and ignition sources were present. Fires consume huge quantities of biomass in all ecosystems and play an important role in biogeochemical cycles. This means that understanding the influence of O(2) on past fire activity has far-reaching consequences for the evolution of life and Earth's biodiversity over geological timescales. We have used a strong electrical ignition source to ignite smoldering fires, and we measured their self-sustaining propagation in atmospheres of different oxygen concentrations. These data have been used to build a model that we use to estimate the baseline intrinsic flammability of Earth's ecosystems according to variations in O(2) over the past 350 million years (Ma). Our aim is to highlight times in Earth's history when fire has been capable of influencing the Earth system. We reveal that fire activity would be greatly suppressed below 18.5% O(2), entirely switched off below 16% O(2), and rapidly enhanced between 19-22% O(2). We show that fire activity and, therefore, its influence on the Earth system would have been high during the Carboniferous (350-300 Ma) and Cretaceous (145-65 Ma) periods; intermediate in the Permian (299-251 Ma), Late Triassic (285-201 Ma), and Jurassic (201-145 Ma) periods; and surprisingly low to lacking in the Early-Middle Triassic period between 250-240 Ma. These baseline variations in Earth's flammability must be factored into our understanding of past vegetation, biodiversity, evolution, and biogeochemical cycles.

Budget Update: 2009-10 Operating Grant Estimates--What Changed between March Estimates and the Autumn Recalculation? BCTF Research Report. Section V. 2010-EF-01

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

White, Margaret

2010-01-01

In March of each year, the ministry publishes the Operating Grants Manual showing estimated funding allocations for school districts for the upcoming school year. These estimates are based on enrolment projections. On September 30 of the new school year, enrolment is counted and the grants are recalculated based on actual enrolment. The ministry…

Estimations of direct release rate of 137Cs and 90Sr to the ocean from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant for five-and-a-half years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsumune, Daisuke; Aoyama, Michio; Tsubono, Takaki; Misumi, Kazuhiro; Tateda, Yutaka

2017-04-01

A series of accidents at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (1F NPP) following the earthquake and tsunami of 11 March 2011 resulted in the release of radioactive materials to the ocean by two major pathways, direct release from the accident site and atmospheric deposition. Additional release pathways by river input and runoff from 1F NPP site with precipitation and were also effective for coastal zone in the specific periods before starting direct release on March 26 2011. Direct release from 1F NPP site is dominant one year after the accident. We estimated the direct release rate of 137Cs and 90Sr for more than five-and-a-half years after the accident by the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS). Direct release rate of 137Cs were estimated for five-and-a-half years after the accident by comparing simulated results and measured activities adjacent to the 1F NPP site(at 5,6 discharge and south discharge). Directly release rate of 137Cs was estimated to be the order of magnitude of 1014 Bq/day and decreased exponentially with time to be the order of magnitude of 109 Bq/day by the end of September 2016. Estimated direct release rate have exponentially reduced with constant rate since November 2011. Apparent half-life of direct release rate was estimated to be 346 days. The estimated total amounts of directly released 137Cs was 3.7±0.7 PBq for five and a half years. Simulated 137Cs activities attributable to direct release were in good agreement with observed activities, a result that implies the estimated direct release rate was reasonable. Simulated 137Cs activity affected off coast in the Fukushima prefecture. We used the measured 137Cs activities by the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) for the estimation of direct release. The sea water samples were corrected from the coast. The averaged 137Cs activities from November 2013 to June 2016 were 391 and 383 Bq/m3 at 5,6 discharge and south discharge, respectively. The averaged 137Cs activities measured by the

Estimation of fecundability from survey data.

PubMed

Goldman, N; Westoff, C F; Paul, L E

1985-01-01

The estimation of fecundability from survey data is plagued by methodological problems such as misreporting of dates of birth and marriage and the occurrence of premarital exposure to the risk of conception. Nevertheless, estimates of fecundability from World Fertility Survey data for women married in recent years appear to be plausible for most of the surveys analyzed here and are quite consistent with estimates reported in earlier studies. The estimates presented in this article are all derived from the first interval, the interval between marriage or consensual union and the first live birth conception.

Methods for estimating annual exceedance-probability discharges for streams in Iowa, based on data through water year 2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eash, David A.; Barnes, Kimberlee K.; Veilleux, Andrea G.

2013-01-01

A statewide study was performed to develop regional regression equations for estimating selected annual exceedance-probability statistics for ungaged stream sites in Iowa. The study area comprises streamgages located within Iowa and 50 miles beyond the State’s borders. Annual exceedance-probability estimates were computed for 518 streamgages by using the expected moments algorithm to fit a Pearson Type III distribution to the logarithms of annual peak discharges for each streamgage using annual peak-discharge data through 2010. The estimation of the selected statistics included a Bayesian weighted least-squares/generalized least-squares regression analysis to update regional skew coefficients for the 518 streamgages. Low-outlier and historic information were incorporated into the annual exceedance-probability analyses, and a generalized Grubbs-Beck test was used to detect multiple potentially influential low flows. Also, geographic information system software was used to measure 59 selected basin characteristics for each streamgage. Regional regression analysis, using generalized least-squares regression, was used to develop a set of equations for each flood region in Iowa for estimating discharges for ungaged stream sites with 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities, which are equivalent to annual flood-frequency recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years, respectively. A total of 394 streamgages were included in the development of regional regression equations for three flood regions (regions 1, 2, and 3) that were defined for Iowa based on landform regions and soil regions. Average standard errors of prediction range from 31.8 to 45.2 percent for flood region 1, 19.4 to 46.8 percent for flood region 2, and 26.5 to 43.1 percent for flood region 3. The pseudo coefficients of determination for the generalized least-squares equations range from 90.8 to 96.2 percent for flood region 1, 91.5 to 97

Combining QMRA and Epidemiology to Estimate Campylobacteriosis Incidence.

PubMed

Evers, Eric G; Bouwknegt, Martijn

2016-10-01

The disease burden of pathogens as estimated by QMRA (quantitative microbial risk assessment) and EA (epidemiological analysis) often differs considerably. This is an unsatisfactory situation for policymakers and scientists. We explored methods to obtain a unified estimate using campylobacteriosis in the Netherlands as an example, where previous work resulted in estimates of 4.9 million (QMRA) and 90,600 (EA) cases per year. Using the maximum likelihood approach and considering EA the gold standard, the QMRA model could produce the original EA estimate by adjusting mainly the dose-infection relationship. Considering QMRA the gold standard, the EA model could produce the original QMRA estimate by adjusting mainly the probability that a gastroenteritis case is caused by Campylobacter. A joint analysis of QMRA and EA data and models assuming identical outcomes, using a frequentist or Bayesian approach (using vague priors), resulted in estimates of 102,000 or 123,000 campylobacteriosis cases per year, respectively. These were close to the original EA estimate, and this will be related to the dissimilarity in data availability. The Bayesian approach further showed that attenuating the condition of equal outcomes immediately resulted in very different estimates of the number of campylobacteriosis cases per year and that using more informative priors had little effect on the results. In conclusion, EA was dominant in estimating the burden of campylobacteriosis in the Netherlands. However, it must be noted that only statistical uncertainties were taken into account here. Taking all, usually difficult to quantify, uncertainties into account might lead to a different conclusion. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

OYSTER POPULATUION ESTIMATION IN SUPPORT OF THE TEN-YEAR GOAL FOR OYSTER RESOTRATION IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY: DEVELOPING STRATEGIES FOR RESTORING AND MANAGING THE EASTERN OYSTER

EPA Science Inventory

Mann, Roger, Steve Jordan, Gary Smith, Kennedy Paynter, James Wesson, Mary Christman, Jessica Vanisko, Juliana Harding, Kelly Greenhawk and Melissa Southworth. 2003. Oyster Population Estimation in Support of the Ten-Year Goal for Oyster Restoration in the Chesapeake Bay: Develop...

Estimating the prevalence of female genital mutilation in Portugal.

PubMed

Teixeira, A L; Lisboa, M

2016-10-01

Due to globalized migratory processes, female genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C) has spread to other countries, including countries in Europe, where, with a few exceptions, it remains a concealed problem. To the authors' knowledge, this is the first national extensive study to estimate the prevalence of FGM/C in Portugal. Prevalence estimation. Using extrapolation of country-of-origin prevalence data and the 2011 Census data, this study estimated: the prevalence of FGM/C in Portugal among women of reproductive age (15-49 years) and among all women aged ≥15 years; and the number of girls aged <15 years living in Portugal who have undergone or will probably undergo FGM/C. It is estimated that 6576 women aged ≥15 years living in Portugal have undergone FGM/C, with cases distributed unevenly throughout the national territory. In addition, it is estimated that 1830 girls aged <15 years living in Portugal have undergone or are likely to undergo FGM/C. This study estimated that more than 6000 women living in Portugal have undergone FGM/C, and many girls remain at risk. These two groups need different types of interventions. Awareness of the number and geographical dispersion of cases of FGM/C will enable more informed and targeted definition of public health policies for protection of females who have undergone or are at risk of undergoing FGM/C. Copyright © 2016 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantification for Complex Assessment: Uncertainty Estimation in Final Year Project Thesis Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Ho Sung

2013-01-01

A quantitative method for estimating an expected uncertainty (reliability and validity) in assessment results arising from the relativity between four variables, viz examiner's expertise, examinee's expertise achieved, assessment task difficulty and examinee's performance, was developed for the complex assessment applicable to final…

Predictors of Smoking among the Secondary High School Boy Students Based on the Health Belief Model

PubMed Central

Mohammadi, Samira; Ghajari, Haydeh; Valizade, Rohollah; Ghaderi, Naseh; Yousefi, Fayegh; Taymoori, Parvaneh; Nouri, Bejan

2017-01-01

Background: Smoking is one of the most important risk factors for health and also health problems, such as heart diseases, especially for young people. This study aimed to investigate the effect of factors related to smoking among the secondary high school students in the city of Marivan (Kurdistan-Iran), in 2015, based on the constructs of health belief model (HBM). Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted in 470 secondary high school students in Marivan in 2015. The samples were selected by random cluster sampling. A question with four sections was used to collect data (demographic questions, knowledge section, attitude section, and questions related to e constructs of HBM). Results: According to the results, the correlation of smoking was stronger with attitude (r = 0.269 and odds ratio = 0.89) but weaker with perceived barriers (r = 0.101). There was not a significant correlation between smoking behavior and knowledge of the harms of smoking (r = −0.005). Moreover, Cues to action was effective predictor of smoking behavior (r = 0.259). Conclusions: The findings of this study show that the prevalence of smoking in the studied sample is somewhat lower than other regions of Iran, but it should be noted that if no interventions are done to prevent smoking in this age group. The findings of the study also showed that the structure of attitudes, self-efficacy, and Cues to action are the strongest predictors of smoking among students. Albeit, attitude was strongest predictor of smoking that shows the prevalence of smoking can be reduced by focusing in this part. Considering the mean age of participants (16/2 ± 0.25 years), that shows the riskiest period for smoking is 16 years and authorities can make change in policies of cigarette selling only for over 18 years. PMID:28479966

Peak-flow frequency estimates based on data through water year 2001 for selected streamflow-gaging stations in South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sando, Steven K.; Driscoll, Daniel G.; Parrett, Charles

2008-01-01

Numerous users, including the South Dakota Department of Transportation, have continuing needs for peak-flow information for the design of highway infrastructure and many other purposes. This report documents results from a cooperative study between the South Dakota Department of Transportation and the U.S. Geological Survey to provide an update of peak-flow frequency estimates for South Dakota. Estimates of peak-flow magnitudes for 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence intervals are reported for 272 streamflow-gaging stations, which include most gaging stations in South Dakota with 10 or more years of systematic peak-flow records through water year 2001. Recommended procedures described in Bulletin 17B were used as primary guidelines for developing peak-flow frequency estimates. The computer program PEAKFQ developed by the U.S. Geological Survey was used to run the frequency analyses. Flood frequencies for all stations were initially analyzed by using standard Bulletin 17B default procedures for fitting the log-Pearson III distribution. The resulting preliminary frequency curves were then plotted on a log-probability scale, and fits of the curves with systematic data were evaluated. In many cases, results of the default Bulletin 17B analyses were determined to be satisfactory. In other cases, however, the results could be improved by using various alternative procedures for frequency analysis. Alternative procedures for some stations included adjustments to skew coefficients or use of user-defined low-outlier criteria. Peak-flow records for many gaging stations are strongly influenced by low- or zero-flow values. This situation often results in a frequency curve that plots substantially above the systematic record data points at the upper end of the frequency curve. Adjustments to low-outlier criteria reduced the influence of very small peak flows and generally focused the analyses on the upper parts of the frequency curves (10- to 500-year

Estimated burden of fungal infections in Germany.

PubMed

Ruhnke, Markus; Groll, Andreas H; Mayser, Peter; Ullmann, Andrew J; Mendling, Werner; Hof, Herbert; Denning, David W

2015-10-01

In the late 1980's, the incidence of invasive fungal diseases (IFDs) in Germany was estimated with 36.000 IFDs per year. The current number of fungal infections (FI) occurring each year in Germany is still not known. In the actual analysis, data on incidence of fungal infections in various patients groups at risk for FI were calculated and mostly estimated from various (mostly national) resources. According to the very heterogenous data resources robust data or statistics could not be obtained but preliminary estimations could be made and compared with data from other areas in the world using a deterministic model that has consistently been applied in many countries by the LIFE program ( www.LIFE-worldwide.org). In 2012, of the 80.52 million population (adults 64.47 million; 41.14 million female, 39.38 million male), 20% are children (0-14 years) and 16% of population are ≥65 years old. Using local data and literature estimates of the incidence or prevalence of fungal infections, about 9.6 million (12%) people in Germany suffer from a fungal infection each year. These figures are dominated (95%) by fungal skin disease and recurrent vulvo-vaginal candidosis. In general, considerable uncertainty surrounds the total numbers because IFDs do not belong to the list of reportable infectious diseases in Germany and most patients were not hospitalised because of the IFD but a distinct underlying disease. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Capture-recapture analysis for estimating manatee reproductive rates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, W.L.; Langtimm, C.A.; Beck, C.A.; Runge, M.C.

2004-01-01

Modeling the life history of the endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) is an important step toward understanding its population dynamics and predicting its response to management actions. We developed a multi-state mark-resighting model for data collected under Pollock's robust design. This model estimates breeding probability conditional on a female's breeding state in the previous year; assumes sighting probability depends on breeding state; and corrects for misclassification of a cow with first-year calf, by estimating conditional sighting probability for the calf. The model is also appropriate for estimating survival and unconditional breeding probabilities when the study area is closed to temporary emigration across years. We applied this model to photo-identification data for the Northwest and Atlantic Coast populations of manatees, for years 1982?2000. With rare exceptions, manatees do not reproduce in two consecutive years. For those without a first-year calf in the previous year, the best-fitting model included constant probabilities of producing a calf for the Northwest (0.43, SE = 0.057) and Atlantic (0.38, SE = 0.045) populations. The approach we present to adjust for misclassification of breeding state could be applicable to a large number of marine mammal populations.

Costs of cervical cancer treatment: population-based estimates from Ontario

PubMed Central

Pendrith, C.; Thind, A.; Zaric, G.S.; Sarma, S.

2016-01-01

Objectives The objectives of the present study were to estimate the overall and specific medical care costs associated with cervical cancer in the first 5 years after diagnosis in Ontario. Methods Incident cases of invasive cervical cancer during 2007–2010 were identified from the Ontario Cancer Registry and linked to administrative databases held at the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences. Mean costs in 2010 Canadian dollars were estimated using the arithmetic mean and estimators that adjust for censored data. Results Mean age of the patients in the study cohort (779 cases) was 49.3 years. The mean overall medical care cost was $39,187 [standard error (se): $1,327] in the 1st year after diagnosis. Costs in year 1 ranged from $34,648 (se: $1,275) for those who survived at least 1 year to $69,142 (se: $4,818) for those who died from cervical cancer within 1 year. At 5 years after diagnosis, the mean overall unadjusted cost was $63,131 (se: $3,131), and the cost adjusted for censoring was $68,745 (se: $2,963). Inpatient hospitalizations and cancer-related care were the two largest components of cancer treatment costs. Conclusions We found that the estimated mean costs that did not account for censoring were consistently undervalued, highlighting the importance of estimates based on censoring-adjusted costs in cervical cancer. Our results are reliable for estimating the economic burden of cervical cancer and the cost-effectiveness of cervical cancer prevention strategies. PMID:27122978

Estimating work-related amputations in the Norwegian manufacturing sector: a 10-year retrospective study based on two-source capture-recapture method.

PubMed

Samant, Yogindra; Parker, David; Wergeland, Ebba; Lund, Johan; Westin, Steinar

2012-01-01

Work-related amputations are serious yet preventable injuries. Workers in the manufacturing sector in particular are vulnerable to amputation injuries compared to workers in other sectors. In this study, we used a two-source capture recapture method to estimate the true number of annual work-related amputations in the Norwegian manufacturing sector for a 10-year study period (1998-2007). The two-sources utilized in this study were the Norwegian Labor Inspection Authorities Registry of Work-Related Injuries (RWI) and the Association of Norwegian Private Insurance Companies registry for occupational injuries (ANPIC). We estimated an annual incidence rate that ranged from 21/100 000 to 62/100 000 workers during the study period. Our findings indicate an undercount of amputations reported to the Norwegian Labour Inspection Authority's registry ranging from 16% to 58% during the study period. Work-related amputations remain a challenge in the Norwegian manufacturing sector. This study underscores the need of robust epidemiological surveillance infrastructure and effective interventions to prevent amputations at work.

New technologies - How to assess environmental effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sullivan, P. J.; Lavin, M. L.

1981-01-01

A method is provided for assessing the environmental effects of a room-and-pillar mining system (RP) and a new hydraulic borehole mining system (HBM). Before environmental assessment can begin, each technology is defined in terms of its engineering characteristics at both the conceptual and preliminary design stages. The mining sites are also described in order to identify the significant advantages and constraints for each system. This can be a basic physical and biological survey of the region at the conceptual stage, but a more specific representation of site characteristics is required at the preliminary stage. Assessment of potential environmental effects of each system at the conceptual design is critical to its hardware development and application. A checklist can be used to compare and identify the negative impacts of each method, outlining the resource affected, the type of impact involved, and the exact activity causing that impact. At the preliminary design stage, these impacts should be evaluated as a result of either utilization or alteration. Underground coal mining systems have three major utilization impacts - the total area disturbed, the total water resources withdrawn from other uses, and the overall energy efficiency of the process - and one major alteration impact - the degradation of water quality by sedimentation and acid contamination. A comparison of the RP and HBM systems shows the HBM to be an environmentally less desirable system for the Central Appalachia region.

Fat Mass Is Positively Associated with Estimated Hip Bone Strength among Chinese Men Aged 50 Years and above with Low Levels of Lean Mass.

PubMed

Han, Guiyuan; Chen, Yu-Ming; Huang, Hua; Chen, Zhanyong; Jing, Lipeng; Xiao, Su-Mei

2017-04-24

This study investigated the relationships of fat mass (FM) and lean mass (LM) with estimated hip bone strength in Chinese men aged 50-80 years (median value: 62.0 years). A cross-sectional study including 889 men was conducted in Guangzhou, China. Body composition and hip bone parameters were generated by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). The relationships of the LM index (LMI) and the FM index (FMI) with bone phenotypes were detected by generalised additive models and multiple linear regression. The associations between the FMI and the bone variables in LMI tertiles were further analysed. The FMI possessed a linear relationship with greater estimated hip bone strength after adjustment for the potential confounders ( p < 0.05). Linear relationships were also observed for the LMI with most bone phenotypes, except for the cross-sectional area ( p < 0.05). The contribution of the LMI (4.0%-12.8%) was greater than that of the FMI (2.0%-5.7%). The associations between the FMI and bone phenotypes became weaker after controlling for LMI. Further analyses showed that estimated bone strength ascended with FMI in the lowest LMI tertile ( p < 0.05), but not in the subgroups with a higher LMI. This study suggested that LM played a critical role in bone health in middle-aged and elderly Chinese men, and that the maintenance of adequate FM could help to promote bone acquisition in relatively thin men.

Accuracy and precision of estimating age of gray wolves by tooth wear

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gipson, P.S.; Ballard, W.B.; Nowak, R.M.; Mech, L.D.

2000-01-01

We evaluated the accuracy and precision of tooth wear for aging gray wolves (Canis lupus) from Alaska, Minnesota, and Ontario based on 47 known-age or known-minimum-age skulls. Estimates of age using tooth wear and a commercial cementum annuli-aging service were useful for wolves up to 14 years old. The precision of estimates from cementum annuli was greater than estimates from tooth wear, but tooth wear estimates are more applicable in the field. We tended to overestimate age by 1-2 years and occasionally by 3 or 4 years. The commercial service aged young wolves with cementum annuli to within ?? 1 year of actual age, but under estimated ages of wolves ???9 years old by 1-3 years. No differences were detected in tooth wear patterns for wild wolves from Alaska, Minnesota, and Ontario, nor between captive and wild wolves. Tooth wear was not appropriate for aging wolves with an underbite that prevented normal wear or severely broken and missing teeth.

Sociopsychological correlates of motivation to quit smoking among low-SES African American women.

PubMed

Manfredi, C; Lacey, L P; Warnecke, R; Petraitis, J

1998-06-01

This article examines correlates of desire and plans to quit smoking among 248 young, low-socioeconomic status African American women, using variables derived from the health belief model (HBM) and the theory of reasoned action. Consistent with these theoretical models, stronger concern about the effect of smoking on one's health and having close others who want the smoker to quit increased motivation to quit smoking. However, motivation was not associated with specific HBM components regarding lung cancer. Heavier smoking and stronger perceptions regarding the functional utility of smoking decreased motivation to quit, but not as much as expected in this study population. Consistent with a process of change approach to smoking cessation, the factors that moved smokers from not planning to planning to ever quit were different from factors associated with further motivation level among the smokers who did plan to ever quit.

Estimating total population size for Songbirds

Treesearch

Jonathan Bart

2005-01-01

A conviction has developed during the past few years within the avian conservation community that estimates of total population size are needed for many species, especially ones that warrant conservation action. For example, the recently completed monitoring plans for North American shorebirds and landbirds establish estimating population size as a major objective....

Assays for estimating HIV incidence: updated global market assessment and estimated economic value.

PubMed

Morrison, Charles S; Homan, Rick; Mack, Natasha; Seepolmuang, Pairin; Averill, Megan; Taylor, Jamilah; Osborn, Jennifer; Dailey, Peter; Parkin, Neil; Ongarello, Stefano; Mastro, Timothy D

2017-11-01

Accurate incidence estimates are needed to characterize the HIV epidemic and guide prevention efforts. HIV Incidence assays are cost-effective laboratory assays that provide incidence estimates from cross-sectional surveys. We conducted a global market assessment of HIV incidence assays under three market scenarios and estimated the economic value of improved incidence assays. We interviewed 27 stakeholders, and reviewed journal articles, working group proceedings, and manufacturers' sales figures. We determined HIV incidence assay use in 2014, and estimated use in 2015 to 2017 and in 5 to 10-years under three market scenarios, as well as the cost of conducting national and key population surveys using an HIV incidence assay with improved performance. Global 2014 HIV incidence assay use was 308,900 tests, highest in Asia and mostly for case- and population-based surveillance. Estimated 2015 to 2017 use was 94,475 annually, with declines due to China and the United States discontinuing incidence assay use for domestic surveillance. Annual projected 5 to 10 year use under scenario 1 - no change in technology - was 94,475. For scenario 2 - a moderately improved incidence assay - projected annual use was 286,031. Projected annual use for scenario 3 - game-changing technologies with an HIV incidence assay part of (a) standard confirmatory testing, and (b) standard rapid testing, were 500,000 and 180 million, respectively. As HIV incidence assay precision increases, decreased sample sizes required for incidence estimation resulted in $5 to 23 million annual reductions in survey costs and easily offset the approximately $3 million required to develop a new assay. Improved HIV incidence assays could substantially reduce HIV incidence estimation costs. Continued development of HIV incidence assays with improved performance is required to realize these cost benefits. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of the International AIDS Society published by John Wiley & sons Ltd on

Age estimation in the living: Transition analysis on developing third molars.

PubMed

Tangmose, Sara; Thevissen, Patrick; Lynnerup, Niels; Willems, Guy; Boldsen, Jesper

2015-12-01

A radiographic assessment of third molar development is essential for differentiating between juveniles and adolescents in forensic age estimations. As the developmental stages of third molars are highly correlated, age estimates based on a combination of a full set of third molar scores are statistically complicated. Transition analysis (TA) is a statistical method developed for estimating age at death in skeletons, which combines several correlated developmental traits into one age estimate including a 95% prediction interval. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of TA in the living on a full set of third molar scores. A cross sectional sample of 854 panoramic radiographs, homogenously distributed by sex and age (15.0-24.0 years), were randomly split in two; a reference sample for obtaining age estimates including a 95% prediction interval according to TA; and a validation sample to test the age estimates against actual age. The mean inaccuracy of the age estimates was 1.82 years (±1.35) in males and 1.81 years (±1.44) in females. The mean bias was 0.55 years (±2.20) in males and 0.31 years (±2.30) in females. Of the actual ages, 93.7% of the males and 95.9% of the females (validation sample) fell within the 95% prediction interval. Moreover, at a sensitivity and specificity of 0.824 and 0.937 in males and 0.814 and 0.827 in females, TA performs well in differentiating between being a minor as opposed to an adult. Although accuracy does not outperform other methods, TA provides unbiased age estimates which minimize the risk of wrongly estimating minors as adults. Furthermore, when corrected ad hoc, TA produces appropriate prediction intervals. As TA allows expansion with additional traits, i.e. stages of development of the left hand-wrist and the clavicle, it has a great potential for future more accurate and reproducible age estimates, including an estimated probability of having attained the legal age limit of 18 years. Copyright © 2015

Mammography Prevalence within 2 Two Years (Age 40+) - Small Area Estimates

Cancer.gov

For mammography, a woman 40 years of age or older must have reported having at least one mammography in her life. Furthermore, she should have had the most recent one within the last two years by the time of interview.

Estimating Total Deposition Using NADP & CASTNET Data

EPA Science Inventory

For more than 40 years, efforts have been made to estimate total sulfur and nitrogen deposition in the United States using a combination of measured concentrations in precipitation and in the air, precipitation amounts for wet deposition, and various modeled or estimated depositi...

Combining wrist age and third molars in forensic age estimation: how to calculate the joint age estimate and its error rate in age diagnostics.

PubMed

Gelbrich, Bianca; Frerking, Carolin; Weiss, Sandra; Schwerdt, Sebastian; Stellzig-Eisenhauer, Angelika; Tausche, Eve; Gelbrich, Götz

2015-01-01

Forensic age estimation in living adolescents is based on several methods, e.g. the assessment of skeletal and dental maturation. Combination of several methods is mandatory, since age estimates from a single method are too imprecise due to biological variability. The correlation of the errors of the methods being combined must be known to calculate the precision of combined age estimates. To examine the correlation of the errors of the hand and the third molar method and to demonstrate how to calculate the combined age estimate. Clinical routine radiographs of the hand and dental panoramic images of 383 patients (aged 7.8-19.1 years, 56% female) were assessed. Lack of correlation (r = -0.024, 95% CI = -0.124 to + 0.076, p = 0.64) allows calculating the combined age estimate as the weighted average of the estimates from hand bones and third molars. Combination improved the standard deviations of errors (hand = 0.97, teeth = 1.35 years) to 0.79 years. Uncorrelated errors of the age estimates obtained from both methods allow straightforward determination of the common estimate and its variance. This is also possible when reference data for the hand and the third molar method are established independently from each other, using different samples.

Direct estimates of low-level radiation risks of lung cancer at two NRC-compliant nuclear installations: why are the new risk estimates 20 to 200 times the old official estimates?

PubMed

Bross, I D; Driscoll, D L

1981-01-01

An official report on the health hazards to nuclear submarine workers at the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard (PNS), who were exposed to low-level ionizing radiation, was based on a casual inspection of the data and not on statistical analyses of the dosage-response relationships. When these analyses are done, serious hazards from lung cancer and other causes of death are shown. As a result of the recent studies on nuclear workers, the new risk estimates have been found to be much higher than the official estimates currently used in setting NRC permissible levels. The official BEIR estimates are about one lung cancer death per year per million persons per rem[s]. The PNS data show 189 lung cancer deaths per year per million persons per rem.

Estimates of cancer burden in Tuscany.

PubMed

Ventura, Leonardo; Miccinesi, Guido; Buzzoni, Carlotta; Crocetti, Emanuele; Paci, Eugenio; Foschi, Roberto; Rossi, Silvia

2013-01-01

The Tuscan cancer registry has been operating since 1985, providing cancer incidence and survival data in Tuscany; it covers about 33% of the regional population. The purpose of this paper is to provide incidence, prevalence and mortality estimates for the major cancers in the whole Tuscany region for the period 1970-2015. The estimated figures were obtained by applying the MIAMOD method. Starting from mortality and survival data, incidence and prevalence were derived using a statistical back-calculation approach. Survival was modeled on the basis of published data from the Italian cancer registries. According to the estimates, the most frequent cancer sites were colon-rectum in both genders, prostate in men and breast in women, with 4,188, 3,082 and 3,092 new diagnoses, respectively, in 2012. The incidence rates were steadily increasing for lung cancer in women and melanoma in both sexes, while they were decreasing for uterine cervix cancer in women, lung cancer in men and stomach cancer in both sexes. For colorectal cancer a small reduction in incidence was estimated for both sexes in recent years. The incidence rates for prostate cancer, after a steep increase and subsequent stabilization, were estimated to increase slightly in the last years. The breast cancer incidence was estimated to stabilize in the last 10 years. The mortality trends were decreasing for all considered cancers except female lung cancer. Prevalence increased for most of the studied cancers except stomach cancer in both sexes, lung cancer in men and cervix cancer in women. The highest prevalence was estimated for breast cancer, with over 42,000 cases in 2012. This paper provides an updated description of the cancer burden in Tuscany until 2015. These trends will have a significant impact on the regional health services and it is therefore important to enhance both primary prevention, for reducing the cancer incidence, and oncological surveillance, for evaluating the care and assistance of

Estimated life expectancy in a Scottish cohort with type 1 diabetes, 2008-2010.

PubMed

Livingstone, Shona J; Levin, Daniel; Looker, Helen C; Lindsay, Robert S; Wild, Sarah H; Joss, Nicola; Leese, Graham; Leslie, Peter; McCrimmon, Rory J; Metcalfe, Wendy; McKnight, John A; Morris, Andrew D; Pearson, Donald W M; Petrie, John R; Philip, Sam; Sattar, Naveed A; Traynor, Jamie P; Colhoun, Helen M

2015-01-06

Type 1 diabetes has historically been associated with a significant reduction in life expectancy. Major advances in treatment of type 1 diabetes have occurred in the past 3 decades. Contemporary estimates of the effect of type 1 diabetes on life expectancy are needed. To examine current life expectancy in people with and without type 1 diabetes in Scotland. We also examined whether any loss of life expectancy in patients with type 1 diabetes is confined to those who develop kidney disease. Prospective cohort of all individuals alive in Scotland with type 1 diabetes who were aged 20 years or older from 2008 through 2010 and were in a nationwide register (n=24,691 contributing 67,712 person-years and 1043 deaths). Differences in life expectancy between those with and those without type 1 diabetes and the percentage of the difference due to various causes. Life expectancy at an attained age of 20 years was an additional 46.2 years among men with type 1 diabetes and 57.3 years among men without it, an estimated loss in life expectancy with diabetes of 11.1 years (95% CI, 10.1-12.1). Life expectancy from age 20 years was an additional 48.1 years among women with type 1 diabetes and 61.0 years among women without it, an estimated loss with diabetes of 12.9 years (95% CI, 11.7-14.1). Even among those with type 1 diabetes with an estimated glomerular filtration rate of 90 mL/min/1.73 m2 or higher, life expectancy was reduced (49.0 years in men, 53.1 years in women) giving an estimated loss from age 20 years of 8.3 years (95% CI, 6.5-10.1) for men and 7.9 years (95% CI, 5.5-10.3) for women. Overall, the largest percentage of the estimated loss in life expectancy was related to ischemic heart disease (36% in men, 31% in women) but death from diabetic coma or ketoacidosis was associated with the largest percentage of the estimated loss occurring before age 50 years (29.4% in men, 21.7% in women). Estimated life expectancy for patients with type 1 diabetes in Scotland based on

Updating estimates of low streamflow statistics to account for possible trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blum, A. G.; Archfield, S. A.; Hirsch, R. M.; Vogel, R. M.; Kiang, J. E.; Dudley, R. W.

2017-12-01

Given evidence of both increasing and decreasing trends in low flows in many streams, methods are needed to update estimators of low flow statistics used in water resources management. One such metric is the 10-year annual low-flow statistic (7Q10) calculated as the annual minimum seven-day streamflow which is exceeded in nine out of ten years on average. Historical streamflow records may not be representative of current conditions at a site if environmental conditions are changing. We present a new approach to frequency estimation under nonstationary conditions that applies a stationary nonparametric quantile estimator to a subset of the annual minimum flow record. Monte Carlo simulation experiments were used to evaluate this approach across a range of trend and no trend scenarios. Relative to the standard practice of using the entire available streamflow record, use of a nonparametric quantile estimator combined with selection of the most recent 30 or 50 years for 7Q10 estimation were found to improve accuracy and reduce bias. Benefits of data subset selection approaches were greater for higher magnitude trends annual minimum flow records with lower coefficients of variation. A nonparametric trend test approach for subset selection did not significantly improve upon always selecting the last 30 years of record. At 174 stream gages in the Chesapeake Bay region, 7Q10 estimators based on the most recent 30 years of flow record were compared to estimators based on the entire period of record. Given the availability of long records of low streamflow, using only a subset of the flow record ( 30 years) can be used to update 7Q10 estimators to better reflect current streamflow conditions.

Estimating Contact Exposure in Football Using the Head Impact Exposure Estimate

PubMed Central

Littleton, Ashley C.; Cox, Leah M.; DeFreese, J.D.; Varangis, Eleanna; Lynall, Robert C.; Schmidt, Julianne D.; Marshall, Stephen W.; Guskiewicz, Kevin M.

2015-01-01

Abstract Over the past decade, there has been significant debate regarding the effect of cumulative subconcussive head impacts on short and long-term neurological impairment. This debate remains unresolved, because valid epidemiological estimates of athletes' total contact exposure are lacking. We present a measure to estimate the total hours of contact exposure in football over the majority of an athlete's lifespan. Through a structured oral interview, former football players provided information related to primary position played and participation in games and practice contacts during the pre-season, regular season, and post-season of each year of their high school, college, and professional football careers. Spring football for college was also included. We calculated contact exposure estimates for 64 former football players (n=32 college football only, n=32 professional and college football). The head impact exposure estimate (HIEE) discriminated between individuals who stopped after college football, and individuals who played professional football (p<0.001). The HIEE measure was independent of concussion history (p=0.82). Estimating total hours of contact exposure may allow for the detection of differences between individuals with variation in subconcussive impacts, regardless of concussion history. This measure is valuable for the surveillance of subconcussive impacts and their associated potential negative effects. PMID:25603189

Estimating Contact Exposure in Football Using the Head Impact Exposure Estimate.

PubMed

Kerr, Zachary Y; Littleton, Ashley C; Cox, Leah M; DeFreese, J D; Varangis, Eleanna; Lynall, Robert C; Schmidt, Julianne D; Marshall, Stephen W; Guskiewicz, Kevin M

2015-07-15

Over the past decade, there has been significant debate regarding the effect of cumulative subconcussive head impacts on short and long-term neurological impairment. This debate remains unresolved, because valid epidemiological estimates of athletes' total contact exposure are lacking. We present a measure to estimate the total hours of contact exposure in football over the majority of an athlete's lifespan. Through a structured oral interview, former football players provided information related to primary position played and participation in games and practice contacts during the pre-season, regular season, and post-season of each year of their high school, college, and professional football careers. Spring football for college was also included. We calculated contact exposure estimates for 64 former football players (n = 32 college football only, n = 32 professional and college football). The head impact exposure estimate (HIEE) discriminated between individuals who stopped after college football, and individuals who played professional football (p < 0.001). The HIEE measure was independent of concussion history (p = 0.82). Estimating total hours of contact exposure may allow for the detection of differences between individuals with variation in subconcussive impacts, regardless of concussion history. This measure is valuable for the surveillance of subconcussive impacts and their associated potential negative effects.

Age-specific survival estimates of King Eiders derived from satellite telemetry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oppel, Steffen; Powell, Abby N.

2010-01-01

Age- and sex-specific survival and dispersal are important components in the dynamics and genetic structure of bird populations. For many avian taxa survival rates at the adult and juvenile life stages differ, but in long-lived species juveniles' survival is logistically challenging to study. We present the first estimates of hatch-year annual survival rates for a sea duck, the King Eider (Somateria spectabilis), estimated from satellite telemetry. From 2006 to 2008 we equipped pre-fiedging King Eiders with satellite transmitters on breeding grounds in Alaska and estimated annual survival rates during their first 2 years of life with known-fate models. We compared those estimates to survival rates of adults marked in the same area from 2002 to 2008. Hatch-year survival varied by season during the first year of life, and model-averaged annual survival rate was 0.67 (95% CI: 0.48–0.80). We did not record any mortality during the second year and were therefore unable to estimate second-year survival rate. Adults' survival rate was constant through the year (0.94, 95% CI: 0.86–0.97). No birds appeared to breed during their second summer. While 88% of females with an active transmitter (n = 9) returned to their natal area at the age of 2 years, none of the 2-year old males (n = 3) did. This pattern indicates that females' natal philopatry is high and suggests that males' higher rates of dispersal may account for sex-specific differences in apparent survival rates of juvenile sea ducks when estimated with mark—recapture methods.

Estimation model of life insurance claims risk for cancer patients by using Bayesian method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sukono; Suyudi, M.; Islamiyati, F.; Supian, S.

2017-01-01

This paper discussed the estimation model of the risk of life insurance claims for cancer patients using Bayesian method. To estimate the risk of the claim, the insurance participant data is grouped into two: the number of policies issued and the number of claims incurred. Model estimation is done using a Bayesian approach method. Further, the estimator model was used to estimate the risk value of life insurance claims each age group for each sex. The estimation results indicate that a large risk premium for insured males aged less than 30 years is 0.85; for ages 30 to 40 years is 3:58; for ages 41 to 50 years is 1.71; for ages 51 to 60 years is 2.96; and for those aged over 60 years is 7.82. Meanwhile, for insured women aged less than 30 years was 0:56; for ages 30 to 40 years is 3:21; for ages 41 to 50 years is 0.65; for ages 51 to 60 years is 3:12; and for those aged over 60 years is 9.99. This study is useful in determining the risk premium in homogeneous groups based on gender and age.

Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE): 2010 Highlights

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

US Census Bureau, 2011

2011-01-01

This document presents 2010 data from the Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE) program of the U.S. Census Bureau. The SAIPE program produces poverty estimates for the total population and median household income estimates annually for all counties and states. SAIPE data also produces single-year poverty estimates for the school-age…

Fifty-year flood-inundation maps for Choluteca, Honduras

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kresch, David L.; Mastin, Mark C.; Olsen, T.D.

2002-01-01

After the devastating floods caused by Hurricane Mitch in 1998, maps of the areas and depths of 50-year-flood inundation at 15 municipalities in Honduras were prepared as a tool for agencies involved in reconstruction and planning. This report, which is one in a series of 15, presents maps of areas in the municipality of Choluteca that would be inundated by 50-year floods on Rio Choluteca and Rio Iztoca. Geographic Information System (GIS) coverages of the flood inundation are available on a computer in the municipality of Choluteca as part of the Municipal GIS project and on the Internet at the Flood Hazard Mapping Web page (http://mitchnts1.cr.usgs.gov/projects/floodhazard.html). These coverages allow users to view the flood inundation in much more detail than is possible using the maps in this report. Water-surface elevations for 50-year-floods on Rio Choluteca and Rio Iztoca at Choluteca were estimated using HEC-RAS, a one-dimensional, steady-flow, step-backwater computer program. The channel and floodplain cross sections used in HEC-RAS were developed from an airborne light-detection-and-ranging (LIDAR) topographic survey of the area. The estimated 50-year-flood discharge for Rio Choluteca at Choluteca is 4,620 cubic meters per second, which is the drainage-area-adjusted weighted-average of two independently estimated 50-year-flood discharges for the gaging station Rio Choluteca en Puente Choluteca. One discharge, 4,913 cubic meters per second, was estimated from a frequency analysis of the 17 years of peak discharge record for the gage, and the other, 2,650 cubic meters per second, was estimated from a regression equation that relates the 50-year-flood discharge to drainage area and mean annual precipitation. The weighted-average of the two discharges at the gage is 4,530 cubic meters per second. The 50-year-flood discharge for the study area reach of Rio Choluteca was estimated by multiplying the weighted discharge at the gage by the ratio of the drainage

Fifty-year flood-inundation maps for Comayagua, Hondura

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kresch, David L.; Mastin, Mark C.; Olsen, T.D.

2002-01-01

After the devastating floods caused by Hurricane Mitch in 1998, maps of the areas and depths of the 50-year-flood inundation at 15 municipalities in Honduras were prepared as a tool for agencies involved in reconstruction and planning. This report, which is one in a series of 15, presents maps of areas in the municipality of Comayagua that would be inundated by 50-year floods on Rio Humuya and Rio Majada. Geographic Information System (GIS) coverages of the flood inundation are available on a computer in the municipality of Comayagua as part of the Municipal GIS project and on the Internet at the Flood Hazard Mapping Web page (http://mitchnts1.cr.usgs.gov/projects/floodhazard.html). These coverages allow users to view the flood inundation in much more detail than is possible using the maps in this report. Water-surface elevations for 50-year-floods on Rio Humuya and Rio Majada at Comayagua were estimated using HEC-RAS, a one-dimensional, steady-flow, step-backwater computer program. The channel and floodplain cross sections used in HEC-RAS were developed from an airborne light-detection-and-ranging (LIDAR) topographic survey of the area. The 50-year-flood discharge for Rio Humuya at Comayagua, 1,400 cubic meters per second, was estimated using a regression equation that relates the 50-year-flood discharge to drainage area and mean annual precipitation. The reasonableness of the regression discharge was evaluated by comparing it with drainage-area-adjusted 50-year-flood discharges estimated for three long-term Rio Humuya stream-gaging stations. The drainage-area-adjusted 50-year-flood discharges estimated from the gage records ranged from 946 to 1,365 cubic meters per second. Because the regression equation discharge agrees closely with the high end of the range of discharges estimated from the gaging-station records, it was used for the hydraulic modeling to ensure that the resulting 50-year-flood water-surface elevations would not be underestimated. The 50-year

Estimating psychiatric manpower requirements based on patients' needs.

PubMed

Faulkner, L R; Goldman, C R

1997-05-01

To provide a better understanding of the complexities of estimating psychiatric manpower requirements, the authors describe several approaches to estimation and present a method based on patients' needs. A five-step method for psychiatric manpower estimation is used, with estimates of data pertinent to each step, to calculate the total psychiatric manpower requirements for the United States. The method is also used to estimate the hours of psychiatric service per patient per year that might be available under current psychiatric practice and under a managed care scenario. Depending on assumptions about data at each step in the method, the total psychiatric manpower requirements for the U.S. population range from 2,989 to 358,696 full-time-equivalent psychiatrists. The number of available hours of psychiatric service per patient per year is 14.1 hours under current psychiatric practice and 2.8 hours under the managed care scenario. The key to psychiatric manpower estimation lies in clarifying the assumptions that underlie the specific method used. Even small differences in assumptions mean large differences in estimates. Any credible manpower estimation process must include discussions and negotiations between psychiatrists, other clinicians, administrators, and patients and families to clarify the treatment needs of patients and the roles, responsibilities, and job description of psychiatrists.

Methods for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites in Montana based on data through water year 2011: Chapter F in Montana StreamStats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sando, Roy; Sando, Steven K.; McCarthy, Peter M.; Dutton, DeAnn M.

2016-04-05

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, completed a study to update methods for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites in Montana based on peak-flow data at streamflow-gaging stations through water year 2011. The methods allow estimation of peak-flow frequencies (that is, peak-flow magnitudes, in cubic feet per second, associated with annual exceedance probabilities of 66.7, 50, 42.9, 20, 10, 4, 2, 1, 0.5, and 0.2 percent) at ungaged sites. The annual exceedance probabilities correspond to 1.5-, 2-, 2.33-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence intervals, respectively.Regional regression analysis is a primary focus of Chapter F of this Scientific Investigations Report, and regression equations for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites in eight hydrologic regions in Montana are presented. The regression equations are based on analysis of peak-flow frequencies and basin characteristics at 537 streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana and were developed using generalized least squares regression or weighted least squares regression.All of the data used in calculating basin characteristics that were included as explanatory variables in the regression equations were developed for and are available through the USGS StreamStats application (http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/) for Montana. StreamStats is a Web-based geographic information system application that was created by the USGS to provide users with access to an assortment of analytical tools that are useful for water-resource planning and management. The primary purpose of the Montana StreamStats application is to provide estimates of basin characteristics and streamflow characteristics for user-selected ungaged sites on Montana streams. The regional regression equations presented in this report chapter can be conveniently solved using the Montana StreamStats application.Selected results from

Research on ethics in two large Human Biomonitoring projects ECNIS and NewGeneris: a bottom up approach.

PubMed

Dumez, Birgit; Van Damme, Karel; Casteleyn, Ludwine

2008-06-05

Assessment of ethical aspects and authorization by ethics committees have become a major constraint for health research including human subjects. Ethical reference values often are extrapolated from clinical settings, where emphasis lies on decisional autonomy and protection of individual's privacy. The question rises if this set of values used in clinical research can be considered as relevant references for HBM research, which is at the basis of public health surveillance. Current and future research activities using human biomarkers are facing new challenges and expectancies on sensitive socio-ethical issues. Reflection is needed on the necessity to balance individual rights against public interest. In addition, many HBM research programs require international collaboration. Domestic legislation is not always easily applicable in international projects. Also, there seem to be considerable inconsistencies in ethical assessments of similar research activities between different countries and even within one country. All this is causing delay and putting the researcher in situations in which it is unclear how to act in accordance with necessary legal requirements. Therefore, analysis of ethical practices and their consequences for HBM research is needed.This analysis will be performed by a bottom-up approach, based on a methodology for comparative analysis of determinants in ethical reasoning, allowing taking into account different social, cultural, political and historical traditions, in view of safeguarding common EU values. Based on information collected in real life complexity, paradigm cases and virtual case scenarios will be developed and discussed with relevant stakeholders to openly discuss possible obstacles and to identify options for improvement in regulation. The material collected will allow developing an ethical framework which may constitute the basis for a more harmonized and consistent socio-ethical and legal approach. This will not only increase

Research on ethics in two large Human Biomonitoring projects ECNIS and NewGeneris: a bottom up approach

PubMed Central

Dumez, Birgit; Van Damme, Karel; Casteleyn, Ludwine

2008-01-01

Assessment of ethical aspects and authorization by ethics committees have become a major constraint for health research including human subjects. Ethical reference values often are extrapolated from clinical settings, where emphasis lies on decisional autonomy and protection of individual's privacy. The question rises if this set of values used in clinical research can be considered as relevant references for HBM research, which is at the basis of public health surveillance. Current and future research activities using human biomarkers are facing new challenges and expectancies on sensitive socio-ethical issues. Reflection is needed on the necessity to balance individual rights against public interest. In addition, many HBM research programs require international collaboration. Domestic legislation is not always easily applicable in international projects. Also, there seem to be considerable inconsistencies in ethical assessments of similar research activities between different countries and even within one country. All this is causing delay and putting the researcher in situations in which it is unclear how to act in accordance with necessary legal requirements. Therefore, analysis of ethical practices and their consequences for HBM research is needed. This analysis will be performed by a bottom-up approach, based on a methodology for comparative analysis of determinants in ethical reasoning, allowing taking into account different social, cultural, political and historical traditions, in view of safeguarding common EU values. Based on information collected in real life complexity, paradigm cases and virtual case scenarios will be developed and discussed with relevant stakeholders to openly discuss possible obstacles and to identify options for improvement in regulation. The material collected will allow developing an ethical framework which may constitute the basis for a more harmonized and consistent socio-ethical and legal approach. This will not only increase

Net Pay Estimator | Alaska Division of Retirement and Benefits

Science.gov Websites

pay estimator (linked below). Use the semi-monthly one if you are paid twice per month (24 times per year). Use the bi-weekly one if you are paid every other week (26 times per year). Correctional in an Excel workbook-one with instructions and one with the actual estimator. Follow the instructions

General multiyear aggregation technology: Methodology and software documentation. [estimating seasonal crop acreage proportions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, T. C. (Principal Investigator)

1982-01-01

A general methodology is presented for estimating a stratum's at-harvest crop acreage proportion for a given crop year (target year) from the crop's estimated acreage proportion for sample segments from within the stratum. Sample segments from crop years other than the target year are (usually) required for use in conjunction with those from the target year. In addition, the stratum's (identifiable) crop acreage proportion may be estimated for times other than at-harvest in some situations. A by-product of the procedure is a methodology for estimating the change in the stratum's at-harvest crop acreage proportion from crop year to crop year. An implementation of the proposed procedure as a statistical analysis system routine using the system's matrix language module, PROC MATRIX, is described and documented. Three examples illustrating use of the methodology and algorithm are provided.

Estimated Life Expectancy in a Scottish Cohort With Type 1 Diabetes, 2008-2010

PubMed Central

Livingstone, Shona J.; Levin, Daniel; Looker, Helen C.; Lindsay, Robert S.; Wild, Sarah H.; Joss, Nicola; Leese, Graham; Leslie, Peter; McCrimmon, Rory J.; Metcalfe, Wendy; McKnight, John A.; Morris, Andrew D.; Pearson, Donald W. M.; Petrie, John R.; Philip, Sam; Sattar, Naveed A.; Traynor, Jamie P.; Colhoun, Helen M.

2015-01-01

IMPORTANCE Type 1 diabetes has historically been associated with a significant reduction in life expectancy. Major advances in treatment of type 1 diabetes have occurred in the past 3 decades. Contemporary estimates of the effect of type 1 diabetes on life expectancy are needed. OBJECTIVE To examine current life expectancy in people with and without type 1 diabetes in Scotland. We also examined whether any loss of life expectancy in patients with type 1 diabetes is confined to those who develop kidney disease. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Prospective cohort of all individuals alive in Scotland with type 1 diabetes who were aged 20 years or older from 2008 through 2010 and were in a nationwide register (n=24 691 contributing 67 712 person-years and 1043 deaths). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Differences in life expectancy between those with and those without type 1 diabetes and the percentage of the difference due to various causes. RESULTS Life expectancy at an attained age of 20 years was an additional 46.2 years among men with type 1 diabetes and 57.3 years among men without it, an estimated loss in life expectancy with diabetes of 11.1 years (95% CI, 10.1-12.1). Life expectancy from age 20 years was an additional 48.1 years among women with type 1 diabetes and 61.0 years among women without it, an estimated loss with diabetes of 12.9 years (95% CI, 11.7-14.1). Even among those with type 1 diabetes with an estimated glomerular filtration rate of 90 mL/min/1.73m2 or higher, life expectancy was reduced (49.0 years in men, 53.1 years in women) giving an estimated loss from age 20 years of 8.3 years (95% CI, 6.5-10.1) for men and 7.9 years (95% CI, 5.5-10.3) for women. Overall, the largest percentage of the estimated loss in life expectancy was related to ischemic heart disease (36% in men, 31% in women) but death from diabetic coma or ketoacidosis was associated with the largest percentage of the estimated loss occurring before age 50 years (29.4% in men, 21.7% in

Prenatal exposure to lead in France: Cord-blood levels and associated factors: Results from the perinatal component of the French Longitudinal Study since Childhood (Elfe).

PubMed

Saoudi, Abdessattar; Dereumeaux, Clémentine; Goria, Sarah; Berat, Bénédicte; Brunel, Serge; Pecheux, Marie; de Crouy-Chanel, Perrine; Zeghnoun, Abdelkrim; Rambaud, Loïc; Wagner, Vérène; le Tertre, Alain; Fillol, Clémence; Vandentorren, Stéphanie; Guldner, Laurence

2018-04-01

As a result of the ban on lead in gasoline on 2nd January 2000, the French population's exposure to lead has decreased in recent years. However, because of the acknowledged harmful cognitive effects of lead even at low levels, lead exposure remains a major public health issue. In France, few biomonitoring data are available for exposure to lead in pregnant women and newborn. The purpose of the perinatal component of the French human biomonitoring (HBM) program was to describe levels of various biomarkers of exposure to several environmental pollutants, including lead, among mother-baby pairs. In this paper, we aimed to describe the distribution of cord blood lead levels (CBLL) in French mother-baby pairs, and to estimate the contribution of the main lead exposure risk factors to these levels. A total of 1968 mother-baby pairs selected from the participants of the perinatal component of the French HBM program were included in the study on lead. Lead levels were analyzed in cord blood collected at child delivery by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). The data collected included biological sample, socio-demographic characteristics, environmental and occupational exposure, and information on dietary factors. CBLL were quantified for 99.5% of the sample. The CBLL geometric mean was 8.30 μg/l (95% CI [7.94-8.68]) with a 95th percentile of 24.3 μg/l (95% CI [20.7-27.1]). Factors significantly associated with CBLL were tap water consumption, alcohol consumption, shellfish consumption, vegetable consumption, bread consumption, smoking, and the mother being born in countries where lead is often used. This study provides the first reference value for CBLL in a random sample of mother-baby pairs not particularly exposed to high levels of lead (24.3 μg/l). A substantial decrease in CBLL over time was observed, which confirms the decrease of exposure to lead among the general population. CBLL observed in this French study were in the range of those

Lost productive life years caused by chronic conditions in Australians aged 45-64 years, 2010-2030.

PubMed

Schofield, Deborah J; Shrestha, Rupendra N; Cunich, Michelle; Tanton, Robert; Kelly, Simon; Passey, Megan E; Veerman, Lennert J

2015-09-21

To estimate (1) productive life years (PLYs) lost because of chronic conditions in Australians aged 45-64 years from 2010 to 2030, and (2) the impact of this loss on gross domestic product (GDP) over the same period. A microsimulation model, Health&WealthMOD2030, was used to project lost PLYs caused by chronic conditions from 2010 to 2030. The base population consisted of respondents aged 45-64 years to the Australian Bureau of Statistics Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers 2003 and 2009. The national impact of lost PLYs was assessed with Treasury's GDP equation. Lost PLYs due to chronic disease at 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030 (ie, whole life years lost because of chronic disease); the national impact of lost PLYs at the same time points (GDP loss caused by PLYs); the effects of population growth, labour force trends and chronic disease trends on lost PLYs and GDP at each time point. Using Health&WealthMOD2030, we estimated a loss of 347,000 PLYs in 2010; this was projected to increase to 459,000 in 2030 (32.28% increase over 20 years). The leading chronic conditions associated with premature exits from the labour force were back problems, arthritis and mental and behavioural problems. The percentage increase in the number of PLYs lost by those aged 45-64 years was greater than that of population growth for this age group (32.28% v 27.80%). The strongest driver of the increase in lost PLYs was population growth (accounting for 89.18% of the increase), followed by chronic condition trends (8.28%). Our study estimates an increase of 112 000 lost PLYs caused by chronic illness in older workers in Australia between 2010 and 2030, with the most rapid growth projected to occur in men aged 55-59 years and in women aged 60-64 years. The national impact of this lost labour force participation on GDP was estimated to be $37.79 billion in 2010, increasing to $63.73 billion in 2030.

The Impact of a Professional Learning Intervention Designed to Enhance Year Six Students' Computational Estimation Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mildenhall, Paula; Hackling, Mark

2012-01-01

This paper reports on the analysis of a study of a professional learning intervention focussing on computational estimation. Using a multiple case study design it was possible to describe the impact of the intervention of students' beliefs and computational estimation performance. The study revealed some noteworthy impacts on computational…

Impact of hindcast length on estimates of seasonal climate predictability.

PubMed

Shi, W; Schaller, N; MacLeod, D; Palmer, T N; Weisheimer, A

2015-03-16

It has recently been argued that single-model seasonal forecast ensembles are overdispersive, implying that the real world is more predictable than indicated by estimates of so-called perfect model predictability, particularly over the North Atlantic. However, such estimates are based on relatively short forecast data sets comprising just 20 years of seasonal predictions. Here we study longer 40 year seasonal forecast data sets from multimodel seasonal forecast ensemble projects and show that sampling uncertainty due to the length of the hindcast periods is large. The skill of forecasting the North Atlantic Oscillation during winter varies within the 40 year data sets with high levels of skill found for some subperiods. It is demonstrated that while 20 year estimates of seasonal reliability can show evidence of overdispersive behavior, the 40 year estimates are more stable and show no evidence of overdispersion. Instead, the predominant feature on these longer time scales is underdispersion, particularly in the tropics. Predictions can appear overdispersive due to hindcast length sampling errorLonger hindcasts are more robust and underdispersive, especially in the tropicsTwenty hindcasts are an inadequate sample size to assess seasonal forecast skill.

Enhanced Wnt signaling improves bone mass and strength, but not brittleness, in the Col1a1(+/mov13) mouse model of type I Osteogenesis Imperfecta.

PubMed

Jacobsen, Christina M; Schwartz, Marissa A; Roberts, Heather J; Lim, Kyung-Eun; Spevak, Lyudmila; Boskey, Adele L; Zurakowski, David; Robling, Alexander G; Warman, Matthew L

2016-09-01

Osteogenesis Imperfecta (OI) comprises a group of genetic skeletal fragility disorders. The mildest form of OI, Osteogenesis Imperfecta type I, is frequently caused by haploinsufficiency mutations in COL1A1, the gene encoding the α1(I) chain of type 1 collagen. Children with OI type I have a 95-fold higher fracture rate compared to unaffected children. Therapies for OI type I in the pediatric population are limited to anti-catabolic agents. In adults with osteoporosis, anabolic therapies that enhance Wnt signaling in bone improve bone mass, and ongoing clinical trials are determining if these therapies also reduce fracture risk. We performed a proof-of-principle experiment in mice to determine whether enhancing Wnt signaling in bone could benefit children with OI type I. We crossed a mouse model of OI type I (Col1a1(+/Mov13)) with a high bone mass (HBM) mouse (Lrp5(+/p.A214V)) that has increased bone strength from enhanced Wnt signaling. Offspring that inherited the OI and HBM alleles had higher bone mass and strength than mice that inherited the OI allele alone. However, OI+HBM and OI mice still had bones with lower ductility compared to wild-type mice. We conclude that enhancing Wnt signaling does not make OI bone normal, but does improve bone properties that could reduce fracture risk. Therefore, agents that enhance Wnt signaling are likely to benefit children and adults with OI type 1. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Comparison of Student Skill Knowledge Estimates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ayers, Elizabeth; Nugent, Rebecca; Dean, Nema

2009-01-01

A fundamental goal of educational research is identifying students' current stage of skill mastery (complete/partial/none). In recent years a number of cognitive diagnosis models have become a popular means of estimating student skill knowledge. However, these models become difficult to estimate as the number of students, items, and skills grows.…

A D-Estimator for Single-Case Designs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shadish, William; Hedges, Larry; Pustejovsky, James; Rindskopf, David

2012-01-01

Over the last 10 years, numerous authors have proposed effect size estimators for single-case designs. None, however, has been shown to be equivalent to the usual between-groups standardized mean difference statistic, sometimes called d. The present paper remedies that omission. Most effect size estimators for single-case designs use the…

The Effects of the Refugee Crisis on Age Estimation Analysis over the Past 10 Years: A 16-Country Survey

PubMed Central

Sykes, Leanne; Bhayat, Ahmed; Bernitz, Herman

2017-01-01

Dental age estimation (AE) tests are routinely done on living and deceased persons. There is anecdotal evidence suggesting an increase in age estimations due to the refugee crisis. Our aim is to determine the reasons and methods for performing dental AE tests in both living and deceased individuals. Global trends in AE over the past 10 years were also investigated. A database of all forensic laboratories was obtained and an electronic questionnaire was sent to all of them. The questionnaire was self-developed and included questions on the reasons for performing AE tests, the preferred methods used in living and deceased individuals, and the people/organizations who requested these AE tests. The number of tests performed annually varied between 0 and 500 and the majority were on asylum seekers, refugees, and for adoption cases. Most units used multiple techniques to determine the age among the living, but seldom used more than three techniques for the deceased. The majority of tests were requested by coroners and the legal fraternity. There has been an increase in the number of dental AEs carried out and this has been mostly due to asylum seekers and refugees. The most common techniques for the living were variations of Demirjian’s technique while country specific techniques were used for the deceased. PMID:28608845

Estimating time of HIV-1 infection from next-generation sequence diversity

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Estimating the time since infection (TI) in newly diagnosed HIV-1 patients is challenging, but important to understand the epidemiology of the infection. Here we explore the utility of virus diversity estimated by next-generation sequencing (NGS) as novel biomarker by using a recent genome-wide longitudinal dataset obtained from 11 untreated HIV-1-infected patients with known dates of infection. The results were validated on a second dataset from 31 patients. Virus diversity increased linearly with time, particularly at 3rd codon positions, with little inter-patient variation. The precision of the TI estimate improved with increasing sequencing depth, showing that diversity in NGS data yields superior estimates to the number of ambiguous sites in Sanger sequences, which is one of the alternative biomarkers. The full advantage of deep NGS was utilized with continuous diversity measures such as average pairwise distance or site entropy, rather than the fraction of polymorphic sites. The precision depended on the genomic region and codon position and was highest when 3rd codon positions in the entire pol gene were used. For these data, TI estimates had a mean absolute error of around 1 year. The error increased only slightly from around 0.6 years at a TI of 6 months to around 1.1 years at 6 years. Our results show that virus diversity determined by NGS can be used to estimate time since HIV-1 infection many years after the infection, in contrast to most alternative biomarkers. We provide the regression coefficients as well as web tool for TI estimation. PMID:28968389

40 CFR 98.235 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data... Procedures for estimating missing data. A complete record of all estimated and/or measured parameters used in... sources as soon as possible, including in the subsequent calendar year if missing data are not discovered...

40 CFR 98.235 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data... Procedures for estimating missing data. A complete record of all estimated and/or measured parameters used in... sources as soon as possible, including in the subsequent calendar year if missing data are not discovered...

40 CFR 98.235 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data... Procedures for estimating missing data. A complete record of all estimated and/or measured parameters used in... sources as soon as possible, including in the subsequent calendar year if missing data are not discovered...

40 CFR 98.235 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data... Procedures for estimating missing data. A complete record of all estimated and/or measured parameters used in... sources as soon as possible, including in the subsequent calendar year if missing data are not discovered...

Family-oriented cardiac risk estimator: a Java web-based applet.

PubMed

Crouch, Michael A; Jadhav, Ashwin

2003-01-01

We developed a Java applet that calculates four different estimates of a person's 10-year risk for heart attack: (1) Estimate based on Framingham equation (2) Framingham equation estimate modified by C-reactive protein (CRP) level (3) Framingham estimate modified by family history of heart disease in parents or siblings (4) Framingham estimate modified by both CRP and family heart disease history. This web-based, family-oriented cardiac risk estimator uniquely considers family history and CRP while estimating risk.

Estimating Building Age with 3d GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biljecki, F.; Sindram, M.

2017-10-01

Building datasets (e.g. footprints in OpenStreetMap and 3D city models) are becoming increasingly available worldwide. However, the thematic (attribute) aspect is not always given attention, as many of such datasets are lacking in completeness of attributes. A prominent attribute of buildings is the year of construction, which is useful for some applications, but its availability may be scarce. This paper explores the potential of estimating the year of construction (or age) of buildings from other attributes using random forest regression. The developed method has a two-fold benefit: enriching datasets and quality control (verification of existing attributes). Experiments are carried out on a semantically rich LOD1 dataset of Rotterdam in the Netherlands using 9 attributes. The results are mixed: the accuracy in the estimation of building age depends on the available information used in the regression model. In the best scenario we have achieved predictions with an RMSE of 11 years, but in more realistic situations with limited knowledge about buildings the error is much larger (RMSE = 26 years). Hence the main conclusion of the paper is that inferring building age with 3D city models is possible to a certain extent because it reveals the approximate period of construction, but precise estimations remain a difficult task.

Method for estimating air-drying times of lumber

Treesearch

William T. Simpson; C. Arthur Hart

2001-01-01

Published information on estimated air-drying times of lumber is of limited usefulness because it is restricted to a specific location or to the time of year the lumber is stacked for drying. At best, these estimates give a wide range of possible times over a broad range of possible locations and stacking dates. In this paper, we describe a method for estimating air-...

Estimating the Home Schooled Population. Working Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lines, Patricia M.

Curriculum suppliers, state departments of education, and home school leaders, are the sources used to estimate that between 248,500 and 353,500 school-aged children (K-12) were educated at home in the 1990-91 school year. This paper explains how this estimate was derived. It provides information on process, possible bias, alternate survey…

Improved estimates of fixed reproducible tangible wealth, 1929-95

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-05-01

This article presents revised estimates of the value of fixed reproducible tangible wealth in the United States for 192995; these estimates incorporate the definitional and statistical : improvements introduced in last years comprehensive revis...

Some insight on censored cost estimators.

PubMed

Zhao, H; Cheng, Y; Bang, H

2011-08-30

Censored survival data analysis has been studied for many years. Yet, the analysis of censored mark variables, such as medical cost, quality-adjusted lifetime, and repeated events, faces a unique challenge that makes standard survival analysis techniques invalid. Because of the 'informative' censorship imbedded in censored mark variables, the use of the Kaplan-Meier (Journal of the American Statistical Association 1958; 53:457-481) estimator, as an example, will produce biased estimates. Innovative estimators have been developed in the past decade in order to handle this issue. Even though consistent estimators have been proposed, the formulations and interpretations of some estimators are less intuitive to practitioners. On the other hand, more intuitive estimators have been proposed, but their mathematical properties have not been established. In this paper, we prove the analytic identity between some estimators (a statistically motivated estimator and an intuitive estimator) for censored cost data. Efron (1967) made similar investigation for censored survival data (between the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the redistribute-to-the-right algorithm). Therefore, we view our study as an extension of Efron's work to informatively censored data so that our findings could be applied to other marked variables. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Does present use of cardiovascular medication reflect elevated cardiovascular risk scores estimated ten years ago? A population based longitudinal observational study

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background It is desirable that those at highest risk of cardiovascular disease should have priority for preventive measures, eg. treatment with prescription drugs to modify their risk. We wanted to investigate to what extent present use of cardiovascular medication (CVM) correlates with cardiovascular risk estimated by three different risk scores (Framingham, SCORE and NORRISK) ten years ago. Methods Prospective logitudinal observational study of 20 252 participants in The Hordaland Health Study born 1950-57, not using CVM in 1997-99. Prescription data obtained from The Norwegian Prescription Database in 2008. Results 26% of men and 22% of women aged 51-58 years had started to use some CVM during the previous decade. As a group, persons using CVM scored significantly higher on the risk algorithms Framingham, SCORE and NORRISK compared to those not treated. 16-20% of men and 20-22% of women with risk scores below the high-risk thresholds for the three risk scores were treated with CVM, while 60-65% of men and 25-45% of women with scores above the high-risk thresholds received no treatment. Among women using CVM, only 2.2% (NORRISK), 4.4% (SCORE) and 14.5% (Framingham) had risk scores above the high-risk values. Low education, poor self-reported general health, muscular pains, mental distress (in females only) and a family history of premature cardiovascular disease correlated with use of CVM. Elevated blood pressure was the single factor most strongly predictive of CVM treatment. Conclusion Prescription of CVM to middle-aged individuals by large seems to occur independently of estimated total cardiovascular risk, and this applies especially to females. PMID:21366925

(In)Consistent estimates of changes in relative precipitation in an European domain over the last 350 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bothe, Oliver; Wagner, Sebastian; Zorita, Eduardo

2015-04-01

How did regional precipitation change in past centuries? We have potentially three sources of information to answer this question: There are, especially for Europe, a number of long records of local station precipitation; documentary records and natural archives of past environmental variability serve as proxy records for empirical reconstructions; in addition, simulations with coupled climate models or Earth System Models provide estimates on the spatial structure of precipitation variability. However, instrumental records rarely extend back to the 18th century, reconstructions include large uncertainties, and simulation skill is often still unsatisfactory for precipitation. Thus, we can only seek to answer to which extent the three sources provide a consistent picture of past regional precipitation changes. This presentation describes the (lack of) consistency in describing changes of the distributional properties of seasonal precipitation between the different data sources. We concentrate on England and Wales since there are two recent reconstructions and a long observation based record available for this domain. The season of interest is an extended spring (March, April, May, June, July, MAMJJ) over the past 350 years. The main simulated data stem from a regional simulation for the European domain with CCLM driven at its lateral boundaries with conditions provided by a MPI-ESM COSMOS simulation for the last millennium using a high-amplitude solar forcing. A number of simulations for the past 1000 years from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase III provide additional information. We fit a Weibull distribution to the available data sets following the approach for calculating standardized precipitation indices. We do so over 51 year moving windows to assess the consistency of changes in the distributional properties. Changes in the percentiles for severe (and extreme) dry or wet conditions and in the Weibull standard deviations of precipitation

Comparing population size estimators for plethodontid salamanders

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bailey, L.L.; Simons, T.R.; Pollock, K.H.

2004-01-01

Despite concern over amphibian declines, few studies estimate absolute abundances because of logistic and economic constraints and previously poor estimator performance. Two estimation approaches recommended for amphibian studies are mark-recapture and depletion (or removal) sampling. We compared abundance estimation via various mark-recapture and depletion methods, using data from a three-year study of terrestrial salamanders in Great Smoky Mountains National Park. Our results indicate that short-term closed-population, robust design, and depletion methods estimate surface population of salamanders (i.e., those near the surface and available for capture during a given sampling occasion). In longer duration studies, temporary emigration violates assumptions of both open- and closed-population mark-recapture estimation models. However, if the temporary emigration is completely random, these models should yield unbiased estimates of the total population (superpopulation) of salamanders in the sampled area. We recommend using Pollock's robust design in mark-recapture studies because of its flexibility to incorporate variation in capture probabilities and to estimate temporary emigration probabilities.

Transit bus life cycle cost and year 2007 emissions estimation.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-06-01

The report presents a study of transit bus life cycle cost (LCC) analysis, and projected transit bus emissions and fuel economy for 2007 : model year buses. It covers four bus types: diesel buses using ultra low sulfur diesel (ULSD), diesel buses usi...

Remote Sensing Precision Requirements For FIA Estimation

Treesearch

Mark H. Hansen

2001-01-01

In this study the National Land Cover Data (NLCD) available from the Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics Consortium (MRLC) is used for stratification in the estimation of forest area, timberland area, and growing-stock volume from the first year (1999) of annual FIA data collected in Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, and Missouri. These estimates show that with improvements...

Estimating evolutionary rates in giant viruses using ancient genomes

PubMed Central

Duchêne, Sebastián

2018-01-01

Abstract Pithovirus sibericum is a giant (610 Kpb) double-stranded DNA virus discovered in a purportedly 30,000-year-old permafrost sample. A closely related virus, Pithovirus massiliensis, was recently isolated from a sewer in southern France. An initial comparison of these two virus genomes assumed that P. sibericum was directly ancestral to P. massiliensis and gave a maximum evolutionary rate of 2.60 × 10−5 nucleotide substitutions per site per year (subs/site/year). If correct, this would make pithoviruses among the fastest-evolving DNA viruses, with rates close to those seen in some RNA viruses. To help determine whether this unusually high rate is accurate we utilized the well-known negative association between evolutionary rate and genome size in DNA microbes. This revealed that a more plausible rate estimate for Pithovirus evolution is ∼2.23 × 10−6 subs/site/year, with even lower estimates obtained if evolutionary rates are assumed to be time-dependent. Hence, we estimate that Pithovirus has evolved at least an order of magnitude more slowly than previously suggested. We then used our new rate estimates to infer a time-scale for Pithovirus evolution. Strikingly, this suggests that these viruses could have diverged at least hundreds of thousands of years ago, and hence have evolved over longer time-scales than previously suggested. We propose that the evolutionary rate and time-scale of pithovirus evolution should be reconsidered in the light of these observations and that future estimates of the rate of giant virus evolution should be carefully examined in the context of their biological plausibility. PMID:29511572

Agricultural land-use classification using landsat imagery data, and estimates of irrigation water use in Gooding, Jerome, Lincoln, and Minidoka counties, 1992 water year, Upper Snake River basin, Idaho and western Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maupin, Molly A.

1997-01-01

As part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment Program in the upper Snake River Basin study unit, land- and water-use data were used to describe activities that have potential effects on water quality, including biological conditions, in the basin. Land-use maps and estimates of water use by irrigated agriculture were needed for Gooding, Jerome, Lincoln, and Minidoka Counties (south-central Idaho), four of the most intensively irrigated counties in the study unit. Land use in the four counties was mapped from Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery data for the 1992 water year using the SPECTRUM computer program. Land-use data were field verified in 108 randomly selected sections (640 acres each); results compared favorably with land-use maps from other sources. Water used for irrigation during the 1992 water year was estimated using land-use and ancillary data. In 1992, a drought year, estimated irrigation withdrawals in the four counties were about 2.9 million acre-feet of water. Of the 2.9 million acre-feet, an estimated 2.12 million acre-feet of water was withdrawn from surface water, mainly the Snake River, and nearly 776,000 acre-feet was withdrawn from ground water. One-half of the 2.9 million acre-feet of water withdrawn for irrigation was considered to be lost during conveyance or was returned to the Snake River; the remainder was consumptively used by crops during the growing season.

Economic productivity by age and sex: 2007 estimates for the United States.

PubMed

Grosse, Scott D; Krueger, Kurt V; Mvundura, Mercy

2009-07-01

Human capital estimates of labor productivity are often used to estimate the economic impact of diseases and injuries that cause incapacitation or death. Estimates of average hourly, annual, and lifetime economic productivity, both market and household, were calculated in 2007 US dollars for 5-year age groups for men, women, and both sexes in the United States. Data from the American Time Use Survey were used to estimate hours of paid work and household services and hourly and annual earnings and household productivity. Present values of discounted lifetime earnings were calculated for each age group using the 2004 US life tables and a discount rate of 3% per year and assuming future productivity growth of 1% per year. The estimates of hours and productivity were calculated using the time diaries of 72,922 persons included in the American Time Use Survey for the years 2003 to 2007. The present value of lifetime productivity is approximately $1.2 million in 2007 dollars for children under 5 years of age. For adults in their 20s and 30s, it is approximately $1.6 million and then it declines with increasing age. Productivity estimates are higher for males than for females, more for market productivity than for total productivity. Changes in hours of paid employment and household services can affect economic productivity by age and sex. This is the first publication to include estimates of household services based on contemporary time use data for the US population.

Cost-estimating for commercial digital printing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keif, Malcolm G.

2007-01-01

The purpose of this study is to document current cost-estimating practices used in commercial digital printing. A research study was conducted to determine the use of cost-estimating in commercial digital printing companies. This study answers the questions: 1) What methods are currently being used to estimate digital printing? 2) What is the relationship between estimating and pricing digital printing? 3) To what extent, if at all, do digital printers use full-absorption, all-inclusive hourly rates for estimating? Three different digital printing models were identified: 1) Traditional print providers, who supplement their offset presswork with digital printing for short-run color and versioned commercial print; 2) "Low-touch" print providers, who leverage the power of the Internet to streamline business transactions with digital storefronts; 3) Marketing solutions providers, who see printing less as a discrete manufacturing process and more as a component of a complete marketing campaign. Each model approaches estimating differently. Understanding and predicting costs can be extremely beneficial. Establishing a reliable system to estimate those costs can be somewhat challenging though. Unquestionably, cost-estimating digital printing will increase in relevance in the years ahead, as margins tighten and cost knowledge becomes increasingly more critical.

Baseline intrinsic flammability of Earth’s ecosystems estimated from paleoatmospheric oxygen over the past 350 million years

PubMed Central

Belcher, Claire M.; Yearsley, Jonathan M.; Hadden, Rory M.; McElwain, Jennifer C.; Rein, Guillermo

2010-01-01

Atmospheric oxygen (O2) is estimated to have varied greatly throughout Earth’s history and has been capable of influencing wildfire activity wherever fuel and ignition sources were present. Fires consume huge quantities of biomass in all ecosystems and play an important role in biogeochemical cycles. This means that understanding the influence of O2 on past fire activity has far-reaching consequences for the evolution of life and Earth’s biodiversity over geological timescales. We have used a strong electrical ignition source to ignite smoldering fires, and we measured their self-sustaining propagation in atmospheres of different oxygen concentrations. These data have been used to build a model that we use to estimate the baseline intrinsic flammability of Earth’s ecosystems according to variations in O2 over the past 350 million years (Ma). Our aim is to highlight times in Earth’s history when fire has been capable of influencing the Earth system. We reveal that fire activity would be greatly suppressed below 18.5% O2, entirely switched off below 16% O2, and rapidly enhanced between 19–22% O2. We show that fire activity and, therefore, its influence on the Earth system would have been high during the Carboniferous (350–300 Ma) and Cretaceous (145–65 Ma) periods; intermediate in the Permian (299–251 Ma), Late Triassic (285–201 Ma), and Jurassic (201–145 Ma) periods; and surprisingly low to lacking in the Early–Middle Triassic period between 250–240 Ma. These baseline variations in Earth’s flammability must be factored into our understanding of past vegetation, biodiversity, evolution, and biogeochemical cycles. PMID:21149686

Standard Area Diagrams for Aiding Severity Estimation: Scientometrics, Pathosystems, and Methodological Trends in the Last 25 Years.

PubMed

Del Ponte, Emerson M; Pethybridge, Sarah J; Bock, Clive H; Michereff, Sami J; Machado, Franklin J; Spolti, Piérri

2017-10-01

Standard area diagrams (SAD) have long been used as a tool to aid the estimation of plant disease severity, an essential variable in phytopathometry. Formal validation of SAD was not considered prior to the early 1990s, when considerable effort began to be invested developing SAD and assessing their value for improving accuracy of estimates of disease severity in many pathosystems. Peer-reviewed literature post-1990 was identified, selected, and cataloged in bibliographic software for further scrutiny and extraction of scientometric, pathosystem-related, and methodological-related data. In total, 105 studies (127 SAD) were found and authored by 327 researchers from 10 countries, mainly from Brazil. The six most prolific authors published at least seven studies. The scientific impact of a SAD article, based on annual citations after publication year, was affected by disease significance, the journal's impact factor, and methodological innovation. The reviewed SAD encompassed 48 crops and 103 unique diseases across a range of plant organs. Severity was quantified largely by image analysis software such as QUANT, APS-Assess, or a LI-COR leaf area meter. The most typical SAD comprised five to eight black-and-white drawings of leaf diagrams, with severity increasing nonlinearly. However, there was a trend toward using true-color photographs or stylized representations in a range of color combinations and more linear (equally spaced) increments of severity. A two-step SAD validation approach was used in 78 of 105 studies for which linear regression was the preferred method but a trend toward using Lin's correlation concordance analysis and hypothesis tests to detect the effect of SAD on accuracy was apparent. Reliability measures, when obtained, mainly considered variation among rather than within raters. The implications of the findings and knowledge gaps are discussed. A list of best practices for designing and implementing SAD and a website called SADBank for hosting

Estimating annualized earthquake losses for the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jaiswal, Kishor S.; Bausch, Douglas; Chen, Rui; Bouabid, Jawhar; Seligson, Hope

2015-01-01

We make use of the most recent National Seismic Hazard Maps (the years 2008 and 2014 cycles), updated census data on population, and economic exposure estimates of general building stock to quantify annualized earthquake loss (AEL) for the conterminous United States. The AEL analyses were performed using the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) Hazus software, which facilitated a systematic comparison of the influence of the 2014 National Seismic Hazard Maps in terms of annualized loss estimates in different parts of the country. The losses from an individual earthquake could easily exceed many tens of billions of dollars, and the long-term averaged value of losses from all earthquakes within the conterminous U.S. has been estimated to be a few billion dollars per year. This study estimated nationwide losses to be approximately $4.5 billion per year (in 2012$), roughly 80% of which can be attributed to the States of California, Oregon and Washington. We document the change in estimated AELs arising solely from the change in the assumed hazard map. The change from the 2008 map to the 2014 map results in a 10 to 20% reduction in AELs for the highly seismic States of the Western United States, whereas the reduction is even more significant for Central and Eastern United States.

Effect of delayed reporting of band recoveries on survival estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, David R.; Burnham, Kenneth P.

1980-01-01

Brownie et al. (U.S. Fish and Wildl. Serv., Resource Publ. 131, 1978) presented 14 models based on an array of explicit assumptions for the study of survival in avian populations. These methods are replacing the life table methods previously used to estimate survival rates (e.g., Burnham and Anderson, J. Wildl. Manage., 43: 356-366, 1979). The new methods allow survival or recovery rates, or both, to be constant, time-specific, or time- and age-specific. In studies to estimate survival rates for birds the data are often from recoveries of birds shot or found dead during the hunting season and reported to the Bird Banding Laboratory by sportsmen, conservation agency employees, or the general public. This note examines the bias in estimating annual survival due to a proportion of the recoveries being incorrectly reported a year late. Specifically, a few recoveries each year of, for example, adult male American Widgeon (Anas americana) banded in California are reported as being recovered in year i + 1 when in fact they were actually recovered the previous year i. Delayed reporting might typically be caused by people finding a band in their health clothing in the fall of the year and, being embarrassed about their failure to report the band when it was taken, report it a year late not mentioning the actual year of recovery. Heuristically, delayed reporting should bias estimated annual survival rates upwards because it appears from the data that the birds corresponding to the "delayed" recoveries actually lived an additional year.

Evaluation of design flood estimates with respect to sample size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kobierska, Florian; Engeland, Kolbjorn

2016-04-01

Estimation of design floods forms the basis for hazard management related to flood risk and is a legal obligation when building infrastructure such as dams, bridges and roads close to water bodies. Flood inundation maps used for land use planning are also produced based on design flood estimates. In Norway, the current guidelines for design flood estimates give recommendations on which data, probability distribution, and method to use dependent on length of the local record. If less than 30 years of local data is available, an index flood approach is recommended where the local observations are used for estimating the index flood and regional data are used for estimating the growth curve. For 30-50 years of data, a 2 parameter distribution is recommended, and for more than 50 years of data, a 3 parameter distribution should be used. Many countries have national guidelines for flood frequency estimation, and recommended distributions include the log Pearson II, generalized logistic and generalized extreme value distributions. For estimating distribution parameters, ordinary and linear moments, maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods are used. The aim of this study is to r-evaluate the guidelines for local flood frequency estimation. In particular, we wanted to answer the following questions: (i) Which distribution gives the best fit to the data? (ii) Which estimation method provides the best fit to the data? (iii) Does the answer to (i) and (ii) depend on local data availability? To answer these questions we set up a test bench for local flood frequency analysis using data based cross-validation methods. The criteria were based on indices describing stability and reliability of design flood estimates. Stability is used as a criterion since design flood estimates should not excessively depend on the data sample. The reliability indices describe to which degree design flood predictions can be trusted.

Estimating the magnitude of annual peak discharges with recurrence intervals between 1.1 and 3.0 years for rural, unregulated streams in West Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiley, Jeffrey B.; Atkins, John T.; Newell, Dawn A.

2002-01-01

Multiple and simple least-squares regression models for the log10-transformed 1.5- and 2-year recurrence intervals of peak discharges with independent variables describing the basin characteristics (log10-transformed and untransformed) for 236 streamflow-gaging stations were evaluated, and the regression residuals were plotted as areal distributions that defined three regions in West Virginia designated as East, North, and South. Regional equations for the 1.1-, 1.2-, 1.3-, 1.4-, 1.5-, 1.6-, 1.7-, 1.8-, 1.9-, 2.0-, 2.5-, and 3-year recurrence intervals of peak discharges were determined by generalized least-squares regression. Log10-transformed drainage area was the most significant independent variable for all regions. Equations developed in this study are applicable only to rural, unregulated streams within the boundaries of West Virginia. The accuracies of estimating equations are quantified by measuring the average prediction error (from 27.4 to 52.4 percent) and equivalent years of record (from 1.1 to 3.4 years).

Proportion estimation using prior cluster purities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Terrell, G. R. (Principal Investigator)

1980-01-01

The prior distribution of CLASSY component purities is studied, and this information incorporated into maximum likelihood crop proportion estimators. The method is tested on Transition Year spring small grain segments.

Closing the Gaps: competing estimates of Indigenous Australian life expectancy in the scientific literature

PubMed Central

Rosenstock, Amanda; Mukandi, Bryan; Zwi, Anthony B; Hill, Peter S

2013-01-01

Objective: Closing the gap in life expectancy between Indigenous and other Australians within a generation is central to national Indigenous reform policy (Closing the Gap). Over time, various methods of estimating Indigenous life expectancy and with that, the life expectancy gap, have been adopted with differing, albeit non-comparable results. We present data on the extent of the gap and elucidate the pattern of use and interpretations of the different estimates of the gap, between 2007 and 2012. Methods: An extensive search was conducted for all peer-reviewed health publications citing estimates of and/or discussing the life expectancy of Indigenous Australians, for the period 2007–2012. Results: Five predominant patterns of citation of the gap estimates were identified: 20 years, 17 years, 15–20 years, 13 years, and 11.5 years for males and 9.7 years for females. Some authors misinterpret the most recent estimates as reflecting improvement from the 17-year figure, rather than the result of different methods of estimation. Support for the direct methods used to calculate Indigenous life expectancy is indicated. Conclusions and Implications: A specific estimate of the life expectancy gap has not been established among stakeholders in Indigenous health. Agreement on the magnitude of the gap is arguably needed in order to evaluate strategies aimed at improving health outcomes for Indigenous Australians. Moreover, measuring progress towards ‘closing the gap’ depends on the availability of comparable estimates, using the same techniques of measurement to assess changes over time. PMID:23895479

Risk model for estimating the 1-year risk of deferred lesion intervention following deferred revascularization after fractional flow reserve assessment.

PubMed

Depta, Jeremiah P; Patel, Jayendrakumar S; Novak, Eric; Gage, Brian F; Masrani, Shriti K; Raymer, David; Facey, Gabrielle; Patel, Yogesh; Zajarias, Alan; Lasala, John M; Amin, Amit P; Kurz, Howard I; Singh, Jasvindar; Bach, Richard G

2015-02-21

Although lesions deferred revascularization following fractional flow reserve (FFR) assessment have a low risk of adverse cardiac events, variability in risk for deferred lesion intervention (DLI) has not been previously evaluated. The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model to estimate 1-year risk of DLI for coronary lesions where revascularization was not performed following FFR assessment. A prediction model for DLI was developed from a cohort of 721 patients with 882 coronary lesions where revascularization was deferred based on FFR between 10/2002 and 7/2010. Deferred lesion intervention was defined as any revascularization of a lesion previously deferred following FFR. The final DLI model was developed using stepwise Cox regression and validated using bootstrapping techniques. An algorithm was constructed to predict the 1-year risk of DLI. During a mean (±SD) follow-up period of 4.0 ± 2.3 years, 18% of lesions deferred after FFR underwent DLI; the 1-year incidence of DLI was 5.3%, while the predicted risk of DLI varied from 1 to 40%. The final Cox model included the FFR value, age, current or former smoking, history of coronary artery disease (CAD) or prior percutaneous coronary intervention, multi-vessel CAD, and serum creatinine. The c statistic for the DLI prediction model was 0.66 (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.61-0.70). Patients deferred revascularization based on FFR have variation in their risk for DLI. A clinical prediction model consisting of five clinical variables and the FFR value can help predict the risk of DLI in the first year following FFR assessment. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2014. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

A multicenter prospective hospital-based surveillance to estimate the burden of rotavirus gastroenteritis in children less than five years of age in India.

PubMed

Saluja, T; Sharma, S D; Gupta, M; Kundu, R; Kar, S; Dutta, A; Silveira, M; Singh, J V; Kamath, V G; Chaudhary, A; Rao, J V; Ravi, M D; Murthy, S R K; Babji, S; Prasad, R; Gujjula, R; Rao, R; Dhingra, M S

2014-08-11

Rotavirus is the leading cause of severe, dehydrating diarrhea in children aged <5 years globally, with an estimated 25 million outpatient visits and 2 million hospitalizations attributable to rotavirus infections each year. The aim of this hospital-based surveillance was to summarize the local epidemiological and virological features of rotavirus and to estimate the disease burden in the population under surveillance in India. During the 16 months surveillance period from April 2011 through July 2012, a total of 4711 children under the age of 5 years were admitted with acute diarrhea at 12 medical centers attached to medical schools throughout India. Stool samples were randomly collected from 2051 (43.5%) subjects and were analyzed for rotavirus positivity using commercial enzyme immunoassay kit (Premier Rotaclone Qualitative Elisa) at the respective study centers. Rotavirus positive samples were genotyped for VP7 and VP4 by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) at a central laboratory. During the study period, maximum number of rotavirus related hospitalizations were reported from December 2011 through February 2012. Out of the 2051 stool samples tested for rotavirus, overall 541 (26.4%) samples were positive for rotavirus VP6 antigen in stool. The highest positivity was observed in the month of December, 2011 (52.5%) and lowest in the month of May, 2011 (10.3%). We found that majority of the rotavirus positive cases (69.7%) were in children <24 months of age. The most common genotypes reported were G1 (38%), G2 (18%), G9 (18%), G12 (9%) and mixed strains (17%). The results of this study confirm the significant burden of acute rotavirus gastroenteritis as a cause of hospitalizations in under five children in India. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Fifty-year flood-inundation maps for Juticalpa, Honduras

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kresch, David L.; Mastin, M.C.; Olsen, T.D.

2002-01-01

After the devastating floods caused by Hurricane Mitch in 1998, maps of the areas and depths of 50-year-flood inundation at 15 municipalities in Honduras were prepared as a tool for agencies involved in reconstruction and planning. This report, which is one in a series of 15, presents maps of areas in the municipality of Juticalpa that would be inundated by a 50-year flood of Rio Juticalpa. Geographic Information System (GIS) coverages of the flood inundation are available on a computer in the municipality of Juticalpa as part of the Municipal GIS project and on the Internet at the Flood Hazard Mapping Web page (http://mitchnts1.cr.usgs.gov/projects/floodhazard.html). These coverages allow users to view the flood inundation in much more detail than is possible using the maps in this report. Water-surface elevations for a 50-year-flood on Rio Juticalpa at Juticalpa were estimated using HEC-RAS, a one-dimensional, steady-flow, step-backwater computer program. The channel and floodplain cross sections used in HEC-RAS were developed from an airborne light-detection-and-ranging (LIDAR) topographic survey of the area. The estimated 50-year-flood discharge for Rio Juticalpa at Juticalpa, 1,360 cubic meters per second, was computed as the drainage-area-adjusted weighted average of two independently estimated 50-year-flood discharges for the gaging station Rio Juticalpa en El Torito, located about 2 kilometers upstream from Juticalpa. One discharge, 1,551 cubic meters per second, was estimated from a frequency analysis of the 33 years of peak-discharge record for the gage, and the other, 486 cubic meters per second, was estimated from a regression equation that relates the 50-year-flood discharge to drainage area and mean annual precipitation. The weighted-average of the two discharges at the gage is 1,310 cubic meters per second. The 50-year flood discharge for the study area reach of Rio Juticalpa was estimated by multiplying the weighted discharge at the gage by the

Pap Smear Test Prevalence within Three Years (Age 18+) - Small Area Estimates

Cancer.gov

For Pap smear test, a woman 18 years of age or older must have reported having at least one Pap smear test in her life. Furthermore, she should have had one within the last three years by the time of interview.

Sequential state estimation of nonlinear/non-Gaussian systems with stochastic input for turbine degradation estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanachi, Houman; Liu, Jie; Banerjee, Avisekh; Chen, Ying

2016-05-01

Health state estimation of inaccessible components in complex systems necessitates effective state estimation techniques using the observable variables of the system. The task becomes much complicated when the system is nonlinear/non-Gaussian and it receives stochastic input. In this work, a novel sequential state estimation framework is developed based on particle filtering (PF) scheme for state estimation of general class of nonlinear dynamical systems with stochastic input. Performance of the developed framework is then validated with simulation on a Bivariate Non-stationary Growth Model (BNGM) as a benchmark. In the next step, three-year operating data of an industrial gas turbine engine (GTE) are utilized to verify the effectiveness of the developed framework. A comprehensive thermodynamic model for the GTE is therefore developed to formulate the relation of the observable parameters and the dominant degradation symptoms of the turbine, namely, loss of isentropic efficiency and increase of the mass flow. The results confirm the effectiveness of the developed framework for simultaneous estimation of multiple degradation symptoms in complex systems with noisy measured inputs.

Using 50 years of soil radiocarbon data to identify optimal approaches for estimating soil carbon residence times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baisden, W. T.; Canessa, S.

2013-01-01

In 1959, Athol Rafter began a substantial programme of systematically monitoring the flow of 14C produced by atmospheric thermonuclear tests through organic matter in New Zealand soils under stable land use. A database of ∼500 soil radiocarbon measurements spanning 50 years has now been compiled, and is used here to identify optimal approaches for soil C-cycle studies. Our results confirm the potential of 14C to determine residence times, by estimating the amount of ‘bomb 14C’ incorporated. High-resolution time series confirm this approach is appropriate, and emphasise that residence times can be calculated routinely with two or more time points as little as 10 years apart. This approach is generally robust to the key assumptions that can create large errors when single time-point 14C measurements are modelled. The three most critical assumptions relate to: (1) the distribution of turnover times, and particularly the proportion of old C (‘passive fraction’), (2) the lag time between photosynthesis and C entering the modelled pool, (3) changes in the rates of C input. When carrying out approaches using robust assumptions on time-series samples, multiple soil layers can be aggregated using a mixing equation. Where good archived samples are available, AMS measurements can develop useful understanding for calibrating models of the soil C cycle at regional to continental scales with sample numbers on the order of hundreds rather than thousands. Sample preparation laboratories and AMS facilities can play an important role in coordinating the efficient delivery of robust calculated residence times for soil carbon.

Estimating the prevalence of infertility in Canada

PubMed Central

Bushnik, Tracey; Cook, Jocelynn L.; Yuzpe, A. Albert; Tough, Suzanne; Collins, John

2012-01-01

BACKGROUND Over the past 10 years, there has been a significant increase in the use of assisted reproductive technologies in Canada, however, little is known about the overall prevalence of infertility in the population. The purpose of the present study was to estimate the prevalence of current infertility in Canada according to three definitions of the risk of conception. METHODS Data from the infertility component of the 2009–2010 Canadian Community Health Survey were analyzed for married and common-law couples with a female partner aged 18–44. The three definitions of the risk of conception were derived sequentially starting with birth control use in the previous 12 months, adding reported sexual intercourse in the previous 12 months, then pregnancy intent. Prevalence and odds ratios of current infertility were estimated by selected characteristics. RESULTS Estimates of the prevalence of current infertility ranged from 11.5% (95% CI 10.2, 12.9) to 15.7% (95% CI 14.2, 17.4). Each estimate represented an increase in current infertility prevalence in Canada when compared with previous national estimates. Couples with lower parity (0 or 1 child) had significantly higher odds of experiencing current infertility when the female partner was aged 35–44 years versus 18–34 years. Lower odds of experiencing current infertility were observed for multiparous couples regardless of age group of the female partner, when compared with nulliparous couples. CONCLUSIONS The present study suggests that the prevalence of current infertility has increased since the last time it was measured in Canada, and is associated with the age of the female partner and parity. PMID:22258658

Ensemble-Based Parameter Estimation in a Coupled General Circulation Model

DOE PAGES

Liu, Y.; Liu, Z.; Zhang, S.; ...

2014-09-10

Parameter estimation provides a potentially powerful approach to reduce model bias for complex climate models. Here, in a twin experiment framework, the authors perform the first parameter estimation in a fully coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model using an ensemble coupled data assimilation system facilitated with parameter estimation. The authors first perform single-parameter estimation and then multiple-parameter estimation. In the case of the single-parameter estimation, the error of the parameter [solar penetration depth (SPD)] is reduced by over 90% after ~40 years of assimilation of the conventional observations of monthly sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS). The results of multiple-parametermore » estimation are less reliable than those of single-parameter estimation when only the monthly SST and SSS are assimilated. Assimilating additional observations of atmospheric data of temperature and wind improves the reliability of multiple-parameter estimation. The errors of the parameters are reduced by 90% in ~8 years of assimilation. Finally, the improved parameters also improve the model climatology. With the optimized parameters, the bias of the climatology of SST is reduced by ~90%. Altogether, this study suggests the feasibility of ensemble-based parameter estimation in a fully coupled general circulation model.« less

Improving Accuracy of Influenza-Associated Hospitalization Rate Estimates

PubMed Central

Reed, Carrie; Kirley, Pam Daily; Aragon, Deborah; Meek, James; Farley, Monica M.; Ryan, Patricia; Collins, Jim; Lynfield, Ruth; Baumbach, Joan; Zansky, Shelley; Bennett, Nancy M.; Fowler, Brian; Thomas, Ann; Lindegren, Mary L.; Atkinson, Annette; Finelli, Lyn; Chaves, Sandra S.

2015-01-01

Diagnostic test sensitivity affects rate estimates for laboratory-confirmed influenza–associated hospitalizations. We used data from FluSurv-NET, a national population-based surveillance system for laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations, to capture diagnostic test type by patient age and influenza season. We calculated observed rates by age group and adjusted rates by test sensitivity. Test sensitivity was lowest in adults >65 years of age. For all ages, reverse transcription PCR was the most sensitive test, and use increased from <10% during 2003–2008 to ≈70% during 2009–2013. Observed hospitalization rates per 100,000 persons varied by season: 7.3–50.5 for children <18 years of age, 3.0–30.3 for adults 18–64 years, and 13.6–181.8 for adults >65 years. After 2009, hospitalization rates adjusted by test sensitivity were ≈15% higher for children <18 years, ≈20% higher for adults 18–64 years, and ≈55% for adults >65 years of age. Test sensitivity adjustments improve the accuracy of hospitalization rate estimates. PMID:26292017

Heliotropium bacciferum Forssk. (Boraginaceae) extracts: chemical constituents, antioxidant activity and cytotoxic effect in human cancer cell lines.

PubMed

Aïssaoui, Hanane; Mencherini, Teresa; Esposito, Tiziana; De Tommasi, Nunziatina; Gazzerro, Patrizia; Benayache, Samir; Benayache, Fadila; Mekkiou, Ratiba

2018-02-12

Heliotropium bacciferum (Boraginaceae) is a perennial herb, growing in the Bechar region of Algeria, where it is traditionally used for skin diseases and tonsillitis. Herein, we report the isolation and characterization of sixteen secondary metabolites from the aerial part extracts. They include a sterol (1), megastigman type nor-isoprenoids (2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 10), C-11 terpene lactones (5 and 9), and a monoterpene (7) from the chloroform extract (HB-C); monoterpene glucoside (14), and phenolic compounds (11-13, 15, 16) from the methanol one (HB-M). Their structures were elucidated by spectroscopic methods including 1D and 2D NMR experiments, and ESIMS analysis. HB-M showed a significant and concentration dependent scavenging activity in vitro against the radicals DPPH and ABTS, related to the phenol derivatives (11-13, and 15-16), and HB-C inhibited the growth of colon cancer cell lines, mainly for the presence of the antiproliferative C-11 terpene lactones (5 and 9).

The influence of spirituality and religiosity on breast cancer screening delay in African American women: application of the Theory of Reasoned Action and Planned Behavior (TRA/TPB).

PubMed

Gullate, Mary

2006-01-01

African American women (AAW) are 25% more likely to present with late stage breast cancer and 20% more likely to die from their disease than Caucasian women. Researchers report that a treatment delay of 3 months is a significant factor in breast cancer mortality. Socioeconomic factors, lack of access and knowledge, spiritual and religious beliefs, fear and fatalism are reported as contributing factors to screening delays. Studies have primarily applied the Health Belief Model (HBM) and modified versions like the Champion HBM to preventive health practices. Neither have significant inclusion of spirituality or religiosity. The TRA/TPB focus on beliefs, intent and attitude as individual determinants of the likelihood of performing a specific behavior; but have not had wide utility in studies related to screening delays among AAW. This paper explores the utility of applying the TRA/TPB as the theoretical framework for determining cultural relevance of spirituality and religiosity to screening delays among AAW.

Competitive testing of health behavior theories: how do benefits, barriers, subjective norm, and intention influence mammography behavior?

PubMed Central

Murphy, Caitlin C.; Vernon, Sally W.; Diamond, Pamela M.; Tiro, Jasmin A.

2013-01-01

Background Competitive hypothesis testing may explain differences in predictive power across multiple health behavior theories. Purpose We tested competing hypotheses of the Health Belief Model (HBM) and Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) to quantify pathways linking subjective norm, benefits, barriers, intention, and mammography behavior. Methods We analyzed longitudinal surveys of women veterans randomized to the control group of a mammography intervention trial (n=704). We compared direct, partial mediation, and full mediation models with Satorra-Bentler χ2 difference testing. Results Barriers had a direct and indirect negative effect on mammography behavior; intention only partially mediated barriers. Benefits had little to no effect on behavior and intention; however, it was negatively correlated with barriers. Subjective norm directly affected behavior and indirectly affected intention through barriers. Conclusions Our results provide empiric support for different assertions of HBM and TRA. Future interventions should test whether building subjective norm and reducing negative attitudes increases regular mammography. PMID:23868613

Use of health services in Hill villages in central Nepal.

PubMed

Niraula, B B

1994-10-01

This paper reports the use and non-use of health care facilities in the Hill villages in central Nepal. The health behaviour model (HBM) is applied to test the significance of socioeconomic variables on the use of the modern health care system. The study finds that all three characteristics of the HBM model, predisposing, enabling and need, are significantly related to use and non-use of the modern health care system. The analysis shows that number of living children, respondent's education, nearness to the road and service centre, value of land, knowledge about health workers and experience of child loss are some of the variables that are positively and significantly related to the use of modern health care. Age of the respondents and household size were found to be negatively associated with health-care use. Contrary to expectation, caste is unimportant. Making use of the qualitative data, this paper argues that the health care system is unnecessarily bureaucratic and patriarchal, which favours the socio-economically well-off.

Contribution to harmonic balance calculations of self-sustained periodic oscillations with focus on single-reed instruments.

PubMed

Farner, Snorre; Vergez, Christophe; Kergomard, Jean; Lizée, Aude

2006-03-01

The harmonic balance method (HBM) was originally developed for finding periodic solutions of electronical and mechanical systems under a periodic force, but has been adapted to self-sustained musical instruments. Unlike time-domain methods, this frequency-domain method does not capture transients and so is not adapted for sound synthesis. However, its independence of time makes it very useful for studying any periodic solution, whether stable or unstable, without care of particular initial conditions in time. A computer program for solving general problems involving nonlinearly coupled exciter and resonator, HARMBAL, has been developed based on the HBM. The method as well as convergence improvements and continuation facilities are thoroughly presented and discussed in the present paper. Applications of the method are demonstrated, especially on problems with severe difficulties of convergence: the Helmholtz motion (square signals) of single-reed instruments when no losses are taken into account, the reed being modeled as a simple spring.

Enhancing health knowledge, health beliefs, and health behavior in Poland through a health promoting television program series.

PubMed

Chew, Fiona; Palmer, Sushma; Slonska, Zofia; Subbiah, Kalyani

2002-01-01

This study examined the impact of a health promoting television program series on health knowledge and the key factors of the health belief model (HBM) that have led people to engage in healthy behavior (exercising, losing weight, changing eating habits, and not smoking/quitting smoking). Using data from a posttest comparison field study with 15) viewers and 146 nonviewers in Poland, we found that hierarchical regression analysis showed stronger support for the HBM factors of efficacy, susceptibility, seriousness, and salience in their contribution toward health behavior among television viewers compared with nonviewers. Cues to action variables (including television viewing) and health knowledge boosted efficacy among viewers. Without the advantage of receiving health information from the television series, nonviewers relied on their basic disease fears on one hand, and interest in good health on the other to take steps toward becoming healthier. A health promoting television series can increase health knowledge and enhance health beliefs, which in turn contribute to healthy behaviors.

Estimation and Projection of Prevalence of Colorectal Cancer in Iran, 2015-2020.

PubMed

Vardanjani, Hossein Molavi; Haghdoost, AliAkbar; Bagheri-Lankarani, Kamran; Hadipour, Maryam

2018-01-01

Population aging and more prevalent westernized lifestyle would be expected to result in a markedly rising burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) in the future years. The aim of this study is to estimate the limited-time prevalence of CRC in Iran between 2015 and 2020. Aggregated CRC incidence data were extracted from the Iranian national cancer registry (IR.NCR) reports for 2003-2009 and from GLOBOCAN-2012 database for 2012. Incidence trends were analyzed by age groups, genders, histopathologic, and topographic subtypes to estimate annual percentage changes. Incidence was projected for 2020. The prevalence was estimated applying an adopted version of a previously introduced equation to estimate limited-time prevalence based on the incidence and survival data. Monte Carlo sensitivity analyses were applied to estimate 95% uncertainty levels (ULs). In each scenario, incidence, survival, annual percentage changes, and completeness of case ascertainment at IR.NCR were replaced under pre-assumed distributions. Number of estimated within 1, 2-3 and 4-5-year CRC patients in 2015 were 13676 (95% UL: 10051-18807), 20964 (15835-28268), and 14485 (11188-19293), respectively. Estimated 5-year prevalence for 2020 (99463; 75150-134744) was 2.03 times of that for 2015. Highest 5-year prevalence was estimated in ages 55-59 for females and 75 + for males. Adenocarcinoma (41376; 31227 55898) was the most prevalent histologic subtype. The most prevalent tumor location was colon (30822, 23262-41638). A substantial growth in the prevalence of CRC survivors is highly expected for future years in Iran. Establishment of specialized institutes is highly recommended to provide medical and especially social supports for Iranian CRC survivors.

A holistic approach to age estimation in refugee children.

PubMed

Sypek, Scott A; Benson, Jill; Spanner, Kate A; Williams, Jan L

2016-06-01

Many refugee children arriving in Australia have an inaccurately documented date of birth (DOB). A medical assessment of a child's age is often requested when there is a concern that their documented DOB is incorrect. This study's aim was to assess the accuracy a holistic age assessment tool (AAT) in estimating the age of refugee children newly settled in Australia. A holistic AAT that combines medical and non-medical approaches was used to estimate the ages of 60 refugee children with a known DOB. The tool used four components to assess age: an oral narrative, developmental assessment, anthropometric measures and pubertal assessment. Assessors were blinded to the true age of the child. Correlation coefficients for the actual and estimated age were calculated for the tool overall and individual components. The correlation coefficient between the actual and estimated age from the AAT was very strong at 0.9802 (boys 0.9748, girls 0.9876). The oral narrative component of the tool performed best (R = 0.9603). Overall, 86.7% of age estimates were within 1 year of the true age. The range of differences was -1.43 to 3.92 years with a standard deviation of 0.77 years (9.24 months). The AAT is a holistic, simple and safe instrument that can be used to estimate age in refugee children with results comparable with radiological methods currently used. © 2016 Paediatrics and Child Health Division (The Royal Australasian College of Physicians).

Toward accurate and precise estimates of lion density.

PubMed

Elliot, Nicholas B; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M

2017-08-01

Reliable estimates of animal density are fundamental to understanding ecological processes and population dynamics. Furthermore, their accuracy is vital to conservation because wildlife authorities rely on estimates to make decisions. However, it is notoriously difficult to accurately estimate density for wide-ranging carnivores that occur at low densities. In recent years, significant progress has been made in density estimation of Asian carnivores, but the methods have not been widely adapted to African carnivores, such as lions (Panthera leo). Although abundance indices for lions may produce poor inferences, they continue to be used to estimate density and inform management and policy. We used sighting data from a 3-month survey and adapted a Bayesian spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) model to estimate spatial lion density in the Maasai Mara National Reserve and surrounding conservancies in Kenya. Our unstructured spatial capture-recapture sampling design incorporated search effort to explicitly estimate detection probability and density on a fine spatial scale, making our approach robust in the context of varying detection probabilities. Overall posterior mean lion density was estimated to be 17.08 (posterior SD 1.310) lions >1 year old/100 km 2 , and the sex ratio was estimated at 2.2 females to 1 male. Our modeling framework and narrow posterior SD demonstrate that SECR methods can produce statistically rigorous and precise estimates of population parameters, and we argue that they should be favored over less reliable abundance indices. Furthermore, our approach is flexible enough to incorporate different data types, which enables robust population estimates over relatively short survey periods in a variety of systems. Trend analyses are essential to guide conservation decisions but are frequently based on surveys of differing reliability. We therefore call for a unified framework to assess lion numbers in key populations to improve management and

Data Challenges in Estimating the Capacity Value of Solar Photovoltaics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gami, Dhruv; Sioshansi, Ramteen; Denholm, Paul

We examine the robustness of solar capacity-value estimates to three important data issues. The first is the sensitivity to using hourly averaged as opposed to subhourly solar-insolation data. The second is the sensitivity to errors in recording and interpreting load data. The third is the sensitivity to using modeled as opposed to measured solar-insolation data. We demonstrate that capacity-value estimates of solar are sensitive to all three of these factors, with potentially large errors in the capacity-value estimate in a particular year. If multiple years of data are available, the biases introduced by using hourly averaged solar-insolation can be smoothedmore » out. Multiple years of data will not necessarily address the other data-related issues that we examine. Our analysis calls into question the accuracy of a number of solar capacity-value estimates relying exclusively on modeled solar-insolation data that are reported in the literature (including our own previous works). Our analysis also suggests that multiple years' historical data should be used for remunerating solar generators for their capacity value in organized wholesale electricity markets.« less

Estimating yellow-poplar growth and yield

Treesearch

Donald E. Beck

1989-01-01

Yellow-poplar grows in essentially pure, even-aged stands, so you can make growth and yield estimates from relatively few stand characteristics. The tables and models described here require only measures of stand age, stand basal area in trees 4.5 inches and larger, and site index. They were developed by remeasuring (at 5-year intervals over a 20-year period) many...

Methods for estimating low-flow statistics for Massachusetts streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ries, Kernell G.; Friesz, Paul J.

2000-01-01

Methods and computer software are described in this report for determining flow duration, low-flow frequency statistics, and August median flows. These low-flow statistics can be estimated for unregulated streams in Massachusetts using different methods depending on whether the location of interest is at a streamgaging station, a low-flow partial-record station, or an ungaged site where no data are available. Low-flow statistics for streamgaging stations can be estimated using standard U.S. Geological Survey methods described in the report. The MOVE.1 mathematical method and a graphical correlation method can be used to estimate low-flow statistics for low-flow partial-record stations. The MOVE.1 method is recommended when the relation between measured flows at a partial-record station and daily mean flows at a nearby, hydrologically similar streamgaging station is linear, and the graphical method is recommended when the relation is curved. Equations are presented for computing the variance and equivalent years of record for estimates of low-flow statistics for low-flow partial-record stations when either a single or multiple index stations are used to determine the estimates. The drainage-area ratio method or regression equations can be used to estimate low-flow statistics for ungaged sites where no data are available. The drainage-area ratio method is generally as accurate as or more accurate than regression estimates when the drainage-area ratio for an ungaged site is between 0.3 and 1.5 times the drainage area of the index data-collection site. Regression equations were developed to estimate the natural, long-term 99-, 98-, 95-, 90-, 85-, 80-, 75-, 70-, 60-, and 50-percent duration flows; the 7-day, 2-year and the 7-day, 10-year low flows; and the August median flow for ungaged sites in Massachusetts. Streamflow statistics and basin characteristics for 87 to 133 streamgaging stations and low-flow partial-record stations were used to develop the equations. The

Estimating Selected Streamflow Statistics Representative of 1930-2002 in West Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiley, Jeffrey B.

2008-01-01

Regional equations and procedures were developed for estimating 1-, 3-, 7-, 14-, and 30-day 2-year; 1-, 3-, 7-, 14-, and 30-day 5-year; and 1-, 3-, 7-, 14-, and 30-day 10-year hydrologically based low-flow frequency values for unregulated streams in West Virginia. Regional equations and procedures also were developed for estimating the 1-day, 3-year and 4-day, 3-year biologically based low-flow frequency values; the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency harmonic-mean flows; and the 10-, 25-, 50-, 75-, and 90-percent flow-duration values. Regional equations were developed using ordinary least-squares regression using statistics from 117 U.S. Geological Survey continuous streamflow-gaging stations as dependent variables and basin characteristics as independent variables. Equations for three regions in West Virginia - North, South-Central, and Eastern Panhandle - were determined. Drainage area, precipitation, and longitude of the basin centroid are significant independent variables in one or more of the equations. Estimating procedures are presented for determining statistics at a gaging station, a partial-record station, and an ungaged location. Examples of some estimating procedures are presented.

Estimation of unaltered daily mean streamflow at ungaged streams of New York, excluding Long Island, water years 1961-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gazoorian, Christopher L.

2015-01-01

A graphical user interface, with an integrated spreadsheet summary report, has been developed to estimate and display the daily mean streamflows and statistics and to evaluate different water management or water withdrawal scenarios with the estimated monthly data. This package of regression equations, U.S. Geological Survey streamgage data, and spreadsheet application produces an interactive tool to estimate an unaltered daily streamflow hydrograph and streamflow statistics at ungaged sites in New York. Among other uses, the New York Streamflow Estimation Tool can assist water managers with permitting water withdrawals, implementing habitat protection, estimating contaminant loads, or determining the potential affect from chemical spills.

Tank waste remediation system baseline tank waste inventory estimates for fiscal year 1995

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shelton, L.W., Westinghouse Hanford

1996-12-06

A set of tank-by-tank waste inventories is derived from historical waste models, flowsheet records, and analytical data to support the Tank Waste Remediation System flowsheet and retrieval sequence studies. Enabling assumptions and methodologies used to develop the inventories are discussed. These provisional inventories conform to previously established baseline inventories and are meant to serve as an interim basis until standardized inventory estimates are made available.

Estimating age of sea otters with cementum layers in the first premolar

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bodkin, James L.; Ames, J.A.; Jameson, R.J.; Johnson, A.M.; Matson, G.M.

1997-01-01

We assessed sources of variation in the use of tooth cementum layers to determine age by comparing counts in premolar tooth sections to known ages of 20 sea otters (Enhydra lutris). Three readers examined each sample 3 times, and the 3 readings of each sample were averaged by reader to provide the mean estimated age. The mean (SE) of known age sample was 5.2 years (1.0) and the 3 mean estimated ages were 7.0 (1.0), 5.9 (1.1) and, 4.4 (0.8). The proportion of estimates accurate to within +/- 1 year were 0.25, 0.55, and 0.65 and to within +/- 2 years 0.65, 0.80, and 0.70, by reader. The proportions of samples estimated with >3 years error were 0.20, 0.10, and 0.05. Errors as large as 7, 6, and 5 years were made among readers. In few instances did all readers uniformly provide either accurate (error 1 yr) counts. In most cases (0.85), 1 or 2 of the readers provided accurate counts. Coefficients of determination (R2) between known ages and mean estimated ages were 0.81, 0.87, and 0.87, by reader. The results of this study suggest that cementum layers within sea otter premolar teeth likely are deposited annually and can be used for age estimation. However, criteria used in interpreting layers apparently varied by reader, occasionally resulting in large errors, which were not consistent among readers. While large errors were evident for some individual otters, there were no differences between the known and estimated age-class distribution generated by each reader. Until accuracy can be improved, application of this ageing technique should be limited to sample sizes of at least 6-7 individuals within age classes of >/=1 year.

Use of claims data to estimate annual cervical cancer screening percentages in Portland metropolitan area, Oregon.

PubMed

Abdullah, Nasreen; Laing, Robert S; Hariri, Susan; Young, Collette M; Schafer, Sean

2016-04-01

Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine should reduce cervical dysplasia before cervical cancer. However, dysplasia diagnosis is screening-dependent. Accurate screening estimates are needed. To estimate the percentage of women in a geographic population that has had cervical cancer screening. We analyzed claims data for (Papanicolau) Pap tests from 2008-2012 to estimate the percentage of insured women aged 18-39 years screened. We estimated screening in uninsured women by dividing the percentage of insured Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey respondents reporting previous-year testing by the percentage of uninsured respondents reporting previous-year testing, and multiplying this ratio by claims-based estimates of insured women with previous-year screening. We calculated a simple weighted average of the two estimates to estimate overall screening percentage. We estimated credible intervals using Monte-Carlo simulations. During 2008-2012, an annual average of 29.6% of women aged 18-39 years were screened. Screening increased from 2008 to 2009 in all age groups. During 2009-2012, the screening percentages decreased for all groups, but declined most in women aged 18-20 years, from 21.5% to 5.4%. Within age groups, compared to 2009, credible intervals did not overlap during 2011 (except age group 21-29 years) and 2012, and credible intervals in the 18-20 year group did not overlap with older groups in any year. This introduces a novel method to estimate population-level cervical cancer screening. Overall, percentage of women screened in Portland, Oregon fell following changes in screening recommendations released in 2009 and later modified in 2012. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Framework for Engaging Parents in Prevention

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Randolph, Karen A.; Fincham, Frank; Radey, Melissa

2009-01-01

The literature on engaging families in prevention programs is informed by the Health Beliefs Model (HBM), Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA), and Family Systems theory. Although useful, these frameworks have not facilitated the development of prevention-based practice strategies that recognize different levels of prevention (i.e., universal,…

Predictors of Medication Adherence in an AIDS Clinical Trial: Patient and Clinician Perceptions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cox, Lisa E.

2009-01-01

This article presents data from an AIDS clinical trial that evaluated 238 (60 percent nonwhite) patients infected with HIV and their clinician's perceptions of medication adherence and visit attendance in relationship to lifestyle, psychosocial, and health belief model (HBM) variables. Twelve sites collected data via a prospective, multisite…

Small area estimation for estimating the number of infant mortality in West Java, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anggreyani, Arie; Indahwati, Kurnia, Anang

2016-02-01

Demographic and Health Survey Indonesia (DHSI) is a national designed survey to provide information regarding birth rate, mortality rate, family planning and health. DHSI was conducted by BPS in cooperation with National Population and Family Planning Institution (BKKBN), Indonesia Ministry of Health (KEMENKES) and USAID. Based on the publication of DHSI 2012, the infant mortality rate for a period of five years before survey conducted is 32 for 1000 birth lives. In this paper, Small Area Estimation (SAE) is used to estimate the number of infant mortality in districts of West Java. SAE is a special model of Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM). In this case, the incidence of infant mortality is a Poisson distribution which has equdispersion assumption. The methods to handle overdispersion are binomial negative and quasi-likelihood model. Based on the results of analysis, quasi-likelihood model is the best model to overcome overdispersion problem. The basic model of the small area estimation used basic area level model. Mean square error (MSE) which based on resampling method is used to measure the accuracy of small area estimates.

Estimation of shipping emissions in Candarli Gulf, Turkey.

PubMed

Deniz, Cengiz; Kilic, Alper; Civkaroglu, Gökhan

2010-12-01

Ships are significant air pollution sources as their high powered main engines often use heavy fuels. The major atmospheric components emitted are nitrogen oxides, particulate matter (PM), sulfur oxide gases, carbon oxides, and toxic air pollutants. Shipping emissions cause severe impacts on health and environment. These effects of emissions are emerged especially in territorial waters, inland seas, canals, straits, bays, and port regions. Candarli Gulf is one of the major industrial regions on the Aegean side of Turkey. The marine environment of the region is affected by emissions from ships calling to ten different ports. In this study, NO( x ), SO(2), CO(2), hydrocarbons (HC), and PM emissions from 7,520 ships are estimated during the year of 2007. These emissions are classified regarding operation modes and types of ships. Annual shipping emissions are estimated as 631.2 t year(-1) for NO(x), 573.6 t year(-1) for SO(2), 33,848.9 t year(-1) for CO(2), 32.3 t year(-1) for HC, and 57.4 t year(-1) for PM.

Factor structure and internal reliability of an exercise health belief model scale in a Mexican population.

PubMed

Villar, Oscar Armando Esparza-Del; Montañez-Alvarado, Priscila; Gutiérrez-Vega, Marisela; Carrillo-Saucedo, Irene Concepción; Gurrola-Peña, Gloria Margarita; Ruvalcaba-Romero, Norma Alicia; García-Sánchez, María Dolores; Ochoa-Alcaraz, Sergio Gabriel

2017-03-01

Mexico is one of the countries with the highest rates of overweight and obesity around the world, with 68.8% of men and 73% of women reporting both. This is a public health problem since there are several health related consequences of not exercising, like having cardiovascular diseases or some types of cancers. All of these problems can be prevented by promoting exercise, so it is important to evaluate models of health behaviors to achieve this goal. Among several models the Health Belief Model is one of the most studied models to promote health related behaviors. This study validates the first exercise scale based on the Health Belief Model (HBM) in Mexicans with the objective of studying and analyzing this model in Mexico. Items for the scale called the Exercise Health Belief Model Scale (EHBMS) were developed by a health research team, then the items were applied to a sample of 746 participants, male and female, from five cities in Mexico. The factor structure of the items was analyzed with an exploratory factor analysis and the internal reliability with Cronbach's alpha. The exploratory factor analysis reported the expected factor structure based in the HBM. The KMO index (0.92) and the Barlett's sphericity test (p < 0.01) indicated an adequate and normally distributed sample. Items had adequate factor loadings, ranging from 0.31 to 0.92, and the internal consistencies of the factors were also acceptable, with alpha values ranging from 0.67 to 0.91. The EHBMS is a validated scale that can be used to measure exercise based on the HBM in Mexican populations.

Effect of health belief model and health promotion model on breast cancer early diagnosis behavior: a systematic review.

PubMed

Ersin, Fatma; Bahar, Zuhal

2011-01-01

Breast cancer is an important public health problem on the grounds that it is frequently seen and it is a fatal disease. The objective of this systematic analysis is to indicate the effects of interventions performed by nurses by using the Health Belief Model (HBM) and Health Promotion Model (HPM) on the breast cancer early diagnosis behaviors and on the components of the Health Belief Model and Health Promotion Model. The reveiw was created in line with the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination guide dated 2009 (CRD) and developed by York University National Institute of Health Researches. Review was conducted by using PUBMED, OVID, EBSCO and COCHRANE databases. Six hundred seventy eight studies (PUBMED: 236, OVID: 162, EBSCO: 175, COCHRANE:105) were found in total at the end of the review. Abstracts and full texts of these six hundred seventy eight studies were evaluated in terms of inclusion and exclusion criteria and 9 studies were determined to meet the criteria. Samplings of the studies varied between ninety four and one thousand six hundred fifty five. It was detected in the studies that educations provided by taking the theories as basis became effective on the breast cancer early diagnosis behaviors. When the literature is examined, it is observed that the experimental researches which compare the concepts of Health Belief Model (HBM) and Health Promotion Model (HPM) preoperatively and postoperatively and show the effect of these concepts on education and are conducted by nurses are limited in number. Randomized controlled studies which compare HBM and HPM concepts preoperatively and postoperatively and show the efficiency of the interventions can be useful in evaluating the efficiency of the interventions.

The effect of handover location on trauma theatre start time: An estimated cost saving of £131 000 per year.

PubMed

Nahas, Sam; Ali, Adam; Majid, Kiran; Joseph, Roshan; Huber, Chris; Babu, Victor

2018-02-08

The National Health Service was estimated to be in £2.45 billion deficit in 2015 to 2016. Trauma theatre utilization and efficiency has never been so important as it is estimated to cost £15/minute. Structured questionnaires were given to 23 members of staff at our Trust who are actively involved in the organization or delivery of orthopaedic trauma lists at least once per week. This was used to identify key factors that may improve theatre efficiency. Following focus group evaluation, the location of the preoperative theatre meeting was changed, with all staff involved being required to attend this. Our primary outcome measure was mean theatre start time (time of arrival in the anaesthetic room) during the 1 month immediately preceding the change and the month following the change. Theatre start time was improved on average 24 minutes (1 month premeeting and postmeeting change). This equates to a saving of £360 per day, or £131 040 per year. Changing the trauma meeting location to a venue adjacent to the trauma theatre can improve theatre start times, theatre efficiency, and therefore result in significant cost savings. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

10 CFR 436.23 - Estimated simple payback time.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... Methodology and Procedures for Life Cycle Cost Analyses § 436.23 Estimated simple payback time. The estimated simple payback time is the number of years required for the cumulative value of energy or water cost savings less future non-fuel or non-water costs to equal the investment costs of the building energy or...

10 CFR 436.23 - Estimated simple payback time.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... Methodology and Procedures for Life Cycle Cost Analyses § 436.23 Estimated simple payback time. The estimated simple payback time is the number of years required for the cumulative value of energy or water cost savings less future non-fuel or non-water costs to equal the investment costs of the building energy or...

10 CFR 436.23 - Estimated simple payback time.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... Methodology and Procedures for Life Cycle Cost Analyses § 436.23 Estimated simple payback time. The estimated simple payback time is the number of years required for the cumulative value of energy or water cost savings less future non-fuel or non-water costs to equal the investment costs of the building energy or...

10 CFR 436.23 - Estimated simple payback time.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... Methodology and Procedures for Life Cycle Cost Analyses § 436.23 Estimated simple payback time. The estimated simple payback time is the number of years required for the cumulative value of energy or water cost savings less future non-fuel or non-water costs to equal the investment costs of the building energy or...

10 CFR 436.23 - Estimated simple payback time.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... Methodology and Procedures for Life Cycle Cost Analyses § 436.23 Estimated simple payback time. The estimated simple payback time is the number of years required for the cumulative value of energy or water cost savings less future non-fuel or non-water costs to equal the investment costs of the building energy or...

Comparability and Reliability Considerations of Adequate Yearly Progress

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Maier, Kimberly S.; Maiti, Tapabrata; Dass, Sarat C.; Lim, Chae Young

2012-01-01

The purpose of this study is to develop an estimate of Adequate Yearly Progress (AYP) that will allow for reliable and valid comparisons among student subgroups, schools, and districts. A shrinkage-type estimator of AYP using the Bayesian framework is described. Using simulated data, the performance of the Bayes estimator will be compared to…

Practical Methods for Estimating Software Systems Fault Content and Location

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nikora, A.; Schneidewind, N.; Munson, J.

1999-01-01

Over the past several years, we have developed techniques to discriminate between fault-prone software modules and those that are not, to estimate a software system's residual fault content, to identify those portions of a software system having the highest estimated number of faults, and to estimate the effects of requirements changes on software quality.

Estimating Agricultural Water Use using the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance Evapotranspiration Estimation Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forbes, B. T.

2015-12-01

Due to the predominantly arid climate in Arizona, access to adequate water supply is vital to the economic development and livelihood of the State. Water supply has become increasingly important during periods of prolonged drought, which has strained reservoir water levels in the Desert Southwest over past years. Arizona's water use is dominated by agriculture, consuming about seventy-five percent of the total annual water demand. Tracking current agricultural water use is important for managers and policy makers so that current water demand can be assessed and current information can be used to forecast future demands. However, many croplands in Arizona are irrigated outside of areas where water use reporting is mandatory. To estimate irrigation withdrawals on these lands, we use a combination of field verification, evapotranspiration (ET) estimation, and irrigation system qualification. ET is typically estimated in Arizona using the Modified Blaney-Criddle method which uses meteorological data to estimate annual crop water requirements. The Modified Blaney-Criddle method assumes crops are irrigated to their full potential over the entire growing season, which may or may not be realistic. We now use the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) ET data in a remote-sensing and energy-balance framework to estimate cropland ET. SSEBop data are of sufficient resolution (30m by 30m) for estimation of field-scale cropland water use. We evaluate our SSEBop-based estimates using ground-truth information and irrigation system qualification obtained in the field. Our approach gives the end user an estimate of crop consumptive use as well as inefficiencies in irrigation system performance—both of which are needed by water managers for tracking irrigated water use in Arizona.

Estimating 20-year land-use change and derived CO2 emissions associated with crops, pasture and forestry in Brazil and each of its 27 states.

PubMed

Novaes, Renan M L; Pazianotto, Ricardo A A; Brandão, Miguel; Alves, Bruno J R; May, André; Folegatti-Matsuura, Marília I S

2017-09-01

Land-use change (LUC) in Brazil has important implications on global climate change, ecosystem services and biodiversity, and agricultural expansion plays a critical role in this process. Concerns over these issues have led to the need for estimating the magnitude and impacts associated with that, which are increasingly reported in the environmental assessment of products. Currently, there is an extensive debate on which methods are more appropriate for estimating LUC and related emissions and regionalized estimates are lacking for Brazil, which is a world leader in agricultural production (e.g. food, fibres and bioenergy). We developed a method for estimating scenarios of past 20-year LUC and derived CO 2 emission rates associated with 64 crops, pasture and forestry in Brazil as whole and in each of its 27 states, based on time-series statistics and in accordance with most used carbon-footprinting standards. The scenarios adopted provide a range between minimum and maximum rates of CO 2 emissions from LUC according to different possibilities of land-use transitions, which can have large impacts in the results. Specificities of Brazil, like multiple cropping and highly heterogeneous carbon stocks, are also addressed. The highest CO 2 emission rates are observed in the Amazon biome states and crops with the highest rates are those that have undergone expansion in this region. Some states and crops showing large agricultural areas have low emissions associated, especially in southern and eastern Brazil. Native carbon stocks and time of agricultural expansion are the most decisive factors to the patterns of emissions. Some implications on LUC estimation methods and standards and on agri-environmental policies are discussed. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effects of sociodemographic characteristics and patients' health beliefs on tuberculosis treatment adherence in Ethiopia: a structural equation modelling approach.

PubMed

Tola, Habteyes Hailu; Karimi, Mehrdad; Yekaninejad, Mir Saeed

2017-12-15

Patients' beliefs are a major factor affecting tuberculosis (TB) treatment adherence. However, there has been little use of Health Belief Model (HBM) in determining the pathway effect of patients' sociodemographic characteristics and beliefs on TB treatment adherence. Therefore, this study was aimed at determining the effect of sociodemographic characteristics and patients' health beliefs on TB treatment adherence based on the HBM concept in Ethiopia. A cross-sectional study was conducted in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia among TB patients undertaking treatment. Thirty health centres were randomly selected and one hospital was purposely chosen. Six hundred and ninety-eight TB patients who had been on treatment for 1-2 month, were aged 18 years or above, and had the mental capability to provide consent were enrolled consecutively with non-probability sampling technique from the TB registration book until required sample size achieved. Structured questionnaires were used to collect data. Structural equation modelling was employed to assess the pathway relationship between sociodemographic characteristics, patients' beliefs, and treatment adherence. Of the 698 enrolled participants, 401 (57.4%) were male and 490 (70.2%) were aged 35 years and below. The mean age of participants was 32 (± 11.7) and the age range was 18-90 years. Perceived barrier/benefit was shown to be a significant direct negative effect on TB treatment adherence (ß = -0.124, P = 0.032). In addition, cue to action (ß = -0.68, P ≤ 0.001) and psychological distress (ß = 0.08, P < 0.001) were shown significant indirect effects on TB treatment adherence through perceived barrier/benefit. Interventions intended to decrease perceived barriers and maximize perceived benefits should be implemented to enhance TB treatment adherence. In addition, it is crucial that counselling is incorporated with the regular directly observed therapy program. Motivators (cue to actions) such as

"A Somali girl is Muslim and does not have premarital sex. Is vaccination really necessary?" A qualitative study into the perceptions of Somali women in the Netherlands about the prevention of cervical cancer.

PubMed

Salad, Jihan; Verdonk, Petra; de Boer, Fijgje; Abma, Tineke A

2015-08-21

Participation in Human Papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and Papanicolaou Screening (Pap smears) is low among ethnic minorities in the Netherlands and hardly any information is available about the cervical cancer prevention methods of Somali women living in the diaspora. This qualitative study, based on the Health Belief Model (HBM) and an intersectionality-based framework, explores the perceptions of Somali women living in the Netherlands regarding measures to prevent cervical cancer. Semi-structured interviews have been conducted with young Somali women aged 17-21 years (n = 14) and Somali mothers aged 30-46 years (n = 6). Two natural group discussions have been conducted with 12 and 14 Somali mothers aged 23-66 years. The collected data has been analyzed thematically for content. In this study, we have identified perceived barriers to the use of preventive measures across three major themes: (1) Somali women and preventive healthcare; (2) Language, knowledge, and negotiating decisions; and (3) Sexual standards, culture, and religion. Many issues have been identified across these themes, e.g., distrust of the Dutch health care system or being embarrassed to get Pap smears due to Female Genital Mutilation (FGM) and having a Dutch, male practitioner; or a perceived low susceptibility to HPV and cancer because of the religious norms that prohibit sex before marriage. Current measures in the Netherlands to prevent women from developing cervical cancer hardly reach Somali women because these women perceive these kinds of preventative measures as not personally relevant. Dutch education strategies about cervical cancer deviate from ways of exchanging information within the Somali community. Teachers can provide culturally sensitive information to young Somali women in schools. For Somali mothers, oral education (e.g., poetry or theater) about the Dutch health care system and men's roles in HPV transmission may be useful. An intersectional approach, grounded in

Estimating the number of regular and dependent methamphetamine users in Australia, 2002-2014.

PubMed

Degenhardt, Louisa; Larney, Sarah; Chan, Gary; Dobbins, Timothy; Weier, Megan; Roxburgh, Amanda; Hall, Wayne D; McKetin, Rebecca

2016-03-07

To estimate the number of regular and dependent methamphetamine users in Australia. Indirect prevalence estimates were made for each year from 2002-03 to 2013-14. We applied multiplier methods to data on treatment episodes for amphetamines (eg, counselling, rehabilitation, detoxification) and amphetamine-related hospitalisations to estimate the numbers of regular (at least monthly) and dependent methamphetamine users for each year. Dependent users comprised a subgroup of those who used the drug regularly, so that estimates of the sizes of these two populations were not additive. We estimated that during 2013-14 there were 268 000 regular methamphetamine users (95% CI, 187 000-385 000) and 160 000 dependent users (95% CI, 110 000-232 000) aged 15-54 years in Australia. This equated to population rates of 2.09% (95% CI, 1.45-3.00%) for regular and 1.24% (95% CI, 0.85-1.81%) for dependent use. The rate of dependent use had increased since 2009-10 (when the rate was estimated to be 0.74%), and was higher than the previous peak (1.22% in 2006-07). The highest rates were consistently among those aged 25-34 years, in whom the rate of dependent use during 2012-2013 was estimated to be 1.50% (95% CI, 1.05-2.22%). There had also been an increase in the rate of dependent use among those aged 15-24 years (in 2012-13 reaching 1.14%; 95% CI, 0.80-1.69%). There have been increases over the past 12 years in the numbers of regular and dependent methamphetamine users in Australia. Our estimates suggest that the most recent numbers are the highest for this period, and that the increase has been most marked among young adults (those aged 15-34 years). There is an increasing need for health services to engage with people who have developed problems related to their methamphetamine use.

Assessment of Dietary Mercury Intake and Blood Mercury Levels in the Korean Population: Results from the Korean National Environmental Health Survey 2012–2014

PubMed Central

Kim, Seong-Ah; Kwon, YoungMin; Kim, Suejin; Joung, Hyojee

2016-01-01

From a public health perspective, there is growing concern about dietary mercury intake as the most important source of mercury exposure. This study was performed to estimate dietary mercury exposure and to analyze the association between mercury intake and blood mercury levels in Koreans. The study subjects were 553 adults, comprising a 10% representative subsample of the Korean National Environmental Health Survey (KoNEHS) 2012–2014, who completed a health examination, a face-to-face interview, and a three-day food record. Dietary mercury and methylmercury intakes were assessed from the three-day food record, and blood mercury concentration was measured using a mercury analyzer. The association between dietary mercury intake and blood mercury levels was analyzed by comparing the odds ratios for the blood mercury levels above the Human BioMonitoring (HBM) I value (5 μg/L) among the three groups with different mercury intakes. The average total mercury intake was 4.74 and 3.07 μg/day in males and females, respectively. The food group that contributed most to mercury intake was fish and shellfish, accounting for 77.8% of total intake. The geometric mean of the blood mercury concentration significantly and linearly increased with the mercury and methylmercury intakes (p < 0.001). The odds ratios for blood mercury levels above the HBM I value in the highest mercury and methyl mercury intake group were 3.27 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 1.79–5.95) and 3.20 (95% CI 1.77–5.79) times higher than that of the lowest intake group, respectively. Our results provide compelling evidence that blood mercury level has a strong positive association with dietary intake, and that fish and shellfish contribute most to the dietary mercury exposure. PMID:27598185

Adherence barriers and facilitators for cervical screening amongst currently disadvantaged women in the greater Cape Town region of South Africa

PubMed Central

De Abreu, Chantelle; Horsfall, Hannah

2013-01-01

Abstract Background In South Africa cervical cancer is the second most commonly occurring cancer amongst women, and black African women have the highest risk of developing this disease. Unfortunately, the majority of South African women do not adhere to recommended regular cervical screening. Objectives The purpose of this research was to explore the perceptions, experiences and knowledge regarding cervical screening of disadvantaged women in two informal settlements in South African urban areas. Method The Health Belief Model (HBM) provided a theoretical framework for this study. Four focus groups (n = 21) were conducted, using questions derived from the HBM, and thematic analysis was used to analyse the data. The ages of the women who participated ranged from 21 to 53 years. Results The analysis revealed lack of knowledge about screening as a key structural barrier to treatment. Other structural barriers were: time, age at which free screening is available, and health education. The psychosocial barriers that were identified included: fear of the screening procedure and of the stigmatisation in attending screening. The presence of physical symptoms, the perception that screening provides symptom relief, HIV status, and the desire to know one's physical health status were identified as facilitators of cervical screening adherence. Conclusion This knowledge has the potential to inform healthcare policy and services in South Africa. As globalisation persists and individuals continue to immigrate or seek refugee status in foreign countries, increased understanding and knowledge is required for successful acculturation and integration. Developed countries may therefore also benefit from research findings in developing countries.

Using the Health Belief Model to Explain Mothers' and Fathers' Intention to Participate in Universal Parenting Programs.

PubMed

Salari, Raziye; Filus, Ania

2017-01-01

Using the Health Belief Model (HBM) as a theoretical framework, we studied factors related to parental intention to participate in parenting programs and examined the moderating effects of parent gender on these factors. Participants were a community sample of 290 mothers and 290 fathers of 5- to 10-year-old children. Parents completed a set of questionnaires assessing child emotional and behavioral difficulties and the HBM constructs concerning perceived program benefits and barriers, perceived child problem susceptibility and severity, and perceived self-efficacy. The hypothesized model was evaluated using structural equation modeling. The results showed that, for both mothers and fathers, perceived program benefits were associated with higher intention to participate in parenting programs. In addition, higher intention to participate was associated with lower perceived barriers only in the sample of mothers and with higher perceived self-efficacy only in the sample of fathers. No significant relations were found between intention to participate and perceived child problem susceptibility and severity. Mediation analyses indicated that, for both mothers and fathers, child emotional and behavioral problems had an indirect effect on parents' intention to participate by increasing the level of perceived benefits of the program. As a whole, the proposed model explained about 45 % of the variance in parental intention to participate. The current study suggests that mothers and fathers may be motivated by different factors when making their decision to participate in a parenting program. This finding can inform future parent engagement strategies intended to increase both mothers' and fathers' participation rates in parenting programs.

Semiparametric Estimation of the Impacts of Longitudinal Interventions on Adolescent Obesity using Targeted Maximum-Likelihood: Accessible Estimation with the ltmle Package

PubMed Central

Decker, Anna L.; Hubbard, Alan; Crespi, Catherine M.; Seto, Edmund Y.W.; Wang, May C.

2015-01-01

While child and adolescent obesity is a serious public health concern, few studies have utilized parameters based on the causal inference literature to examine the potential impacts of early intervention. The purpose of this analysis was to estimate the causal effects of early interventions to improve physical activity and diet during adolescence on body mass index (BMI), a measure of adiposity, using improved techniques. The most widespread statistical method in studies of child and adolescent obesity is multi-variable regression, with the parameter of interest being the coefficient on the variable of interest. This approach does not appropriately adjust for time-dependent confounding, and the modeling assumptions may not always be met. An alternative parameter to estimate is one motivated by the causal inference literature, which can be interpreted as the mean change in the outcome under interventions to set the exposure of interest. The underlying data-generating distribution, upon which the estimator is based, can be estimated via a parametric or semi-parametric approach. Using data from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Growth and Health Study, a 10-year prospective cohort study of adolescent girls, we estimated the longitudinal impact of physical activity and diet interventions on 10-year BMI z-scores via a parameter motivated by the causal inference literature, using both parametric and semi-parametric estimation approaches. The parameters of interest were estimated with a recently released R package, ltmle, for estimating means based upon general longitudinal treatment regimes. We found that early, sustained intervention on total calories had a greater impact than a physical activity intervention or non-sustained interventions. Multivariable linear regression yielded inflated effect estimates compared to estimates based on targeted maximum-likelihood estimation and data-adaptive super learning. Our analysis demonstrates that sophisticated

Estimation of temporary emigration in male toads

USGS Publications Warehouse

Muths, E.; Scherer, R. D.; Corn, P.S.; Lambert, B.A.

2006-01-01

Male boreal toads (Bufo boreas) are thought to return to the breeding site every year but, if absent in a particular year, will be more likely to return the following year. Using Pollock's robust design we estimated temporary emigration (the probability a male toad is absent from a breeding site in a given year) at three locations in Colorado, USA: two in Rocky Mountain National Park and one in Chaffee County. We present data that suggest that not all male toads return to the breeding site every year. Our analyses indicate that temporary emigration varies by site and time (for example, from 1992 to 1998, the probability of temporary emigration ranged from 10% to 29% and from 3% to 95% at Lost Lake and Kettle Tarn, respectively). Although the results provide weak evidence that males are more likely to return after a year's hiatus, a general pattern of state-dependent temporary emigration was not supported. We also hypothesized relationships between temporary emigration and a number of weather variables. While some competitive models included weather covariates, imprecise and variable estimates of the effects of these covariates precluded fully defining their impact on temporary emigration. ?? 2006 by the Ecological Society of America.

Estimating equations estimates of trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Sauer, J.R.

1994-01-01

The North American Breeding Bird Survey monitors changes in bird populations through time using annual counts at fixed survey sites. The usual method of estimating trends has been to use the logarithm of the counts in a regression analysis. It is contended that this procedure is reasonably satisfactory for more abundant species, but produces biased estimates for less abundant species. An alternative estimation procedure based on estimating equations is presented.

Demographic estimation methods for plants with dormancy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kery, M.; Gregg, K.B.

2004-01-01

Demographic studies in plants appear simple because unlike animals, plants do not run away. Plant individuals can be marked with, e.g., plastic tags, but often the coordinates of an individual may be sufficient to identify it. Vascular plants in temperate latitudes have a pronounced seasonal life–cycle, so most plant demographers survey their study plots once a year often during or shortly after flowering. Life–states are pervasive in plants, hence the results of a demographic study for an individual can be summarized in a familiar encounter history, such as 0VFVVF000. A zero means that an individual was not seen in a year and a letter denotes its state for years when it was seen aboveground. V and F here stand for vegetative and flowering states, respectively. Probabilities of survival and state transitions can then be obtained by mere counting.Problems arise when there is an unobservable dormant state, i.e., when plants may stay belowground for one or more growing seasons. Encounter histories such as 0VF00F000 may then occur where the meaning of zeroes becomes ambiguous. A zero can either mean a dead or a dormant plant. Various ad hoc methods in wide use among plant ecologists have made strong assumptions about when a zero should be equated to a dormant individual. These methods have never been compared among each other. In our talk and in Kéry et al. (submitted), we show that these ad hoc estimators provide spurious estimates of survival and should not be used.In contrast, if detection probabilities for aboveground plants are known or can be estimated, capturerecapture (CR) models can be used to estimate probabilities of survival and state–transitions and the fraction of the population that is dormant. We have used this approach in two studies of terrestrial orchids, Cleistes bifaria (Kéry et al., submitted) and Cypripedium reginae(Kéry & Gregg, submitted) in West Virginia, U.S.A. For Cleistes, our data comprised one population with a total of 620

Estimating the Non-Monetary Burden of Neurocysticercosis in Mexico

PubMed Central

Bhattarai, Rachana; Budke, Christine M.; Carabin, Hélène; Proaño, Jefferson V.; Flores-Rivera, Jose; Corona, Teresa; Ivanek, Renata; Snowden, Karen F.; Flisser, Ana

2012-01-01

Background Neurocysticercosis (NCC) is a major public health problem in many developing countries where health education, sanitation, and meat inspection infrastructure are insufficient. The condition occurs when humans ingest eggs of the pork tapeworm Taenia solium, which then develop into larvae in the central nervous system. Although NCC is endemic in many areas of the world and is associated with considerable socio-economic losses, the burden of NCC remains largely unknown. This study provides the first estimate of disability adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with NCC in Mexico. Methods DALYs lost for symptomatic cases of NCC in Mexico were estimated by incorporating morbidity and mortality due to NCC-associated epilepsy, and morbidity due to NCC-associated severe chronic headaches. Latin hypercube sampling methods were employed to sample the distributions of uncertain parameters and to estimate 95% credible regions (95% CRs). Findings In Mexico, 144,433 and 98,520 individuals are estimated to suffer from NCC-associated epilepsy and NCC-associated severe chronic headaches, respectively. A total of 25,341 (95% CR: 12,569–46,640) DALYs were estimated to be lost due to these clinical manifestations, with 0.25 (95% CR: 0.12–0.46) DALY lost per 1,000 person-years of which 90% was due to NCC-associated epilepsy. Conclusion This is the first estimate of DALYs associated with NCC in Mexico. However, this value is likely to be underestimated since only the clinical manifestations of epilepsy and severe chronic headaches were included. In addition, due to limited country specific data, some parameters used in the analysis were based on systematic reviews of the literature or primary research from other geographic locations. Even with these limitations, our estimates suggest that healthy years of life are being lost due to NCC in Mexico. PMID:22363827

Barriers to Self-Management Behaviors in College Students with Food Allergies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Duncan, Sarah E.; Annunziato, Rachel A.

2018-01-01

Objective: This study examined barriers to engagement in self-management behaviors among food-allergic college students (1) within the frameworks of the health belief model (HBM) and common sense self-regulation model (CS-SRM) and (2) in the context of overall risky behaviors. Participants: Undergraduate college students who reported having a…

Using the Health Belief Model to Predict Bystander Behavior among College Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blavos, Alexis A.; Glassman, Tavis; Sheu, Jiunn-Jye; Diehr, Aaron; Deakins, Bethany

2014-01-01

This investigation used the Health Belief Model (HBM) to examine perceived barriers and benefits college students hold concerning medical amnesty. Researchers employed a cross-sectional research design with 369 students completing the survey (97% response rate). A path analysis revealed that college students are more likely to seek help during an…

Participation in Prevention Programs for Dating Violence: Beliefs about Relationship Violence and Intention to Participate

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cornelius, Tara L.; Sullivan, Kieran T.; Wyngarden, Nicole; Milliken, Jennifer C.

2009-01-01

This study utilizes the Health Belief Model (HBM) to examine the factors related to the intention to participate in prevention programming for dating violence. Perceptions of susceptibility to future violence and the benefits of prevention programming appear to be the strongest predictors of participation in prevention programs. Perceptions of the…

Republic of Georgia estimates for prevalence of drug use: Randomized response techniques suggest under-estimation.

PubMed

Kirtadze, Irma; Otiashvili, David; Tabatadze, Mzia; Vardanashvili, Irina; Sturua, Lela; Zabransky, Tomas; Anthony, James C

2018-06-01

Validity of responses in surveys is an important research concern, especially in emerging market economies where surveys in the general population are a novelty, and the level of social control is traditionally higher. The Randomized Response Technique (RRT) can be used as a check on response validity when the study aim is to estimate population prevalence of drug experiences and other socially sensitive and/or illegal behaviors. To apply RRT and to study potential under-reporting of drug use in a nation-scale, population-based general population survey of alcohol and other drug use. For this first-ever household survey on addictive substances for the Country of Georgia, we used the multi-stage probability sampling of 18-to-64-year-old household residents of 111 urban and 49 rural areas. During the interviewer-administered assessments, RRT involved pairing of sensitive and non-sensitive questions about drug experiences. Based upon the standard household self-report survey estimate, an estimated 17.3% [95% confidence interval, CI: 15.5%, 19.1%] of Georgian household residents have tried cannabis. The corresponding RRT estimate was 29.9% [95% CI: 24.9%, 34.9%]. The RRT estimates for other drugs such as heroin also were larger than the standard self-report estimates. We remain unsure about what is the "true" value for prevalence of using illegal psychotropic drugs in the Republic of Georgia study population. Our RRT results suggest that standard non-RRT approaches might produce 'under-estimates' or at best, highly conservative, lower-end estimates. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.