Spatial comparability of drought characteristics and related return periods in mainland China over 1961-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayantobo, Olusola O.; Li, Yi; Song, Songbai; Yao, Ning

2017-07-01

The proper understanding of the spatiotemporal characteristics of multi-year droughts and return periods is important for drought risk assessment. This study evaluated and compared the spatiotemporal variations of drought characteristics and return periods within mainland China between 1961 and 2013. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Composite Index (CI) were calculated at multiple timescales, the run theory was used for objective identification and characterization of drought events while Kendall's τ method was used to analyze their dependencies. Within the univariate framework, marginal distributions of duration, severity, and peak were derived by fitting Exponential, Weibull and GDP distributions respectively and the drought return periods was investigated and mapped. Comparison of drought indices showed that SPEI and CI performed better than SPI in delineating spatial patterns of drought characteristics. This might be attributed to the temperature effect on evapotranspiration and therefore on drought index. Considering the increasing trend in reference evapotranspiration in the 21st century, the importance of utilizing temperature-based drought index is imperative. Severe and extreme droughts occurred in the late 1990s in many places in China while persistent multi-year severe droughts occurred more frequently over North China, Northeast China, Northwest China and Southwest China. The spatial patterns showed that regions characterized by higher drought severity were associated with higher drought duration. The North China, Northwest China, and Southwest China had much longer drought durations during the 1990s and 2000s. As droughts normally cover large areas, regional drought return periods has been showed to be more effective in providing support for drought management than station based drought return periods. Studies on the spatial comparability of drought return periods across mainland China have therefore been undertaken for drought mitigation and effective utilization of water resources.

Effects of water-management alternatives on streamflow in the Ipswich River basin, Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zarriello, Philip J.

2001-01-01

Management alternatives that could help mitigate the effects of water withdrawals on streamflow in the Ipswich River Basin were evaluated by simulation with a calibrated Hydrologic Simulation Program--Fortran (HSPF) model. The effects of management alternatives on streamflow were simulated for a 35-year period (196195). Most alternatives examined increased low flows compared to the base simulation of average 1989-93 withdrawals. Only the simulation of no septic-effluent inflow, and the simulation of a 20-percent increase in withdrawals, further lowered flows or caused the river to stop flowing for longer periods of time than the simulation of average 198993 withdrawals. Simulations of reduced seasonal withdrawals by 20 percent, and by 50 percent, resulted in a modest increase in low flow in a critical habitat reach (model reach 8 near the Reading town well field); log-Pearson Type III analysis of simulated daily-mean flow indicated that under these reduced withdrawals, model reach 8 would stop flowing for a period of seven consecutive days about every other year, whereas under average 198993 withdrawals this reach would stop flowing for a seven consecutive day period almost every year. Simulations of no seasonal withdrawals, and simulations that stopped streamflow depletion when flow in model reach 19 was below 22 cubic feet per second, indicated flow would be maintained in model reach 8 at all times. Simulations indicated wastewater-return flows would augment low flow in proportion to the rate of return flow. Simulations of a 1.5 million gallons per day return flow rate indicated model reach 8 would stop flowing for a period of seven consecutive days about once every 5 years; simulated return flow rates of 1.1 million gallons per day indicated that model reach 8 would stop flowing for a period of seven consecutive days about every other year. Simulation of reduced seasonal withdrawals, combined with no septic effluent return flow, indicated only a slight increase in low flow compared to low flows simulated under average 198993 withdrawals. Simulation of reduced seasonal withdrawal, combined with 2.6 million gallons per day wastewater-return flows, provided more flow in model reach 8 than that simulated under no withdrawals.

Meteorology Assessment of Historic Rainfall for Los Alamos During September 2013

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bruggeman, David Alan; Dewart, Jean Marie

2016-02-12

DOE Order 420.1, Facility Safety, requires that site natural phenomena hazards be evaluated every 10 years to support the design of nuclear facilities. The evaluation requires calculating return period rainfall to determine roof loading requirements and flooding potential based on our on-site rainfall measurements. The return period rainfall calculations are done based on statistical techniques and not site-specific meteorology. This and future studies analyze the meteorological factors that produce the significant rainfall events. These studies provide the meteorology context of the return period rainfall events.

Projected changes to short- and long-duration precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairie Provinces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masud, M. B.; Khaliq, M. N.; Wheater, H. S.

2017-09-01

The effects of climate change on April-October short- and long-duration precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairie Provinces were evaluated using a multi-Regional Climate Model (RCM) ensemble available through the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Simulations considered include those performed with six RCMs driven by the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis II product for the 1981-2000 period and those driven by four Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) for the current 1971-2000 and future 2041-2070 periods (i.e. a total of 11 current-to-future period simulation pairs). A regional frequency analysis approach was used to develop 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, and 50-year return values of precipitation extremes from NCEP and AOGCM-driven current and future period simulations that respectively were used to study the performance of RCMs and projected changes for selected return values at regional, grid-cell and local scales. Performance errors due to internal dynamics and physics of RCMs studied for the 1981-2000 period reveal considerable variation in the performance of the RCMs. However, the performance errors were found to be much smaller for RCM ensemble averages than for individual RCMs. Projected changes in future climate to selected regional return values of short-duration (e.g. 15- and 30-min) precipitation extremes and for longer return periods (e.g. 50-year) were found to be mostly larger than those to the longer duration (e.g. 24- and 48-h) extremes and short return periods (e.g. 2-year). Overall, projected changes in precipitation extremes were larger for southeastern regions followed by southern and northern regions and smaller for southwestern and western regions of the study area. The changes to return values were also found to be statistically significant for the majority of the RCM-AOGCM simulation pairs. These projections might be useful as a key input for the future planning of urban drainage infrastructure and development of strategic climate change adaptation measures.

Stormwater Design Return Period Standards for U.S. Transportation Infrastructure: How Are States Approaching Resilience?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samaras, C.; Lopez, T.

2016-12-01

Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of precipitation in many regions, which is relevant for stormwater engineering designs and resilience in the transportation sector. Existing and future stormwater infrastructure is generally designed for historical and stationary hydrologic conditions. For example, the design return period is based on statistical analysis of past precipitation events, often over a 50-year historical timeline. The design return period translates into how much peak precipitation volume a system is designed for in a state, and provides information about the performance of a drainage structure. The higher the design period used by an engineer for a given stormwater system, the more peak stormwater volume the system can convey. Therefore, design return periods can be associated with a design's near-term and long-term resilience. However, there is a tradeoff between the choice of design return period, the total infrastructure capital cost, and the resilience of a system to heavy precipitation events. This study analyzes current stormwater infrastructure design guidelines for state departments of transportation in the contiguous United States, in order to understand how stormwater design return periods vary across states and provide insight into the resilience of current stormwater systems design. The study found that the design return period varies considerably across the United States by roadway functional class and drainage classification, as well as within climate regions. Understanding this variation will help states identify possible vulnerabilities, highlight deficiencies across states and infrastructure types, and help in updating design return periods to increase the climate resilience of stormwater infrastructure.

Historical floods in flood frequency analysis: Is this game worth the candle?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strupczewski, Witold G.; Kochanek, Krzysztof; Bogdanowicz, Ewa

2017-11-01

In flood frequency analysis (FFA) the profit from inclusion of historical information on the largest historical pre-instrumental floods depends primarily on reliability of the information, i.e. the accuracy of magnitude and return period of floods. This study is focused on possible theoretical maximum gain in accuracy of estimates of upper quantiles, that can be obtained by incorporating the largest historical floods of known return periods into the FFA. We assumed a simple case: N years of systematic records of annual maximum flows and either one largest (XM1) or two largest (XM1 and XM2) flood peak flows in a historical M-year long period. The problem is explored by Monte Carlo simulations with the maximum likelihood (ML) method. Both correct and false distributional assumptions are considered. In the first case the two-parameter extreme value models (Gumbel, log-Gumbel, Weibull) with various coefficients of variation serve as parent distributions. In the case of unknown parent distribution, the Weibull distribution was assumed as estimating model and the truncated Gumbel as parent distribution. The return periods of XM1 and XM2 are determined from the parent distribution. The results are then compared with the case, when return periods of XM1 and XM2 are defined by their plotting positions. The results are presented in terms of bias, root mean square error and the probability of overestimation of the quantile with 100-year return period. The results of the research indicate that the maximal profit of inclusion of pre-instrumental foods in the FFA may prove smaller than the cost of reconstruction of historical hydrological information.

Non-stationarity in US droughts and implications for water resources planning and management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apurv, T.; Cai, X.

2017-12-01

The concepts of return period and reliability are widely used in hydrology for quantifying the risk of extreme events. The conventional way of calculating return period and reliability requires the assumption of stationarity and independence of extreme events in successive years. These assumptions may not be true for droughts since a single drought event can last for more than one year. Further, droughts are known to be influenced by multi-year to multi-decadal oscillations (eg. El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)), which means that the underlying distribution can change with time. In this study, we develop a non-stationary frequency analysis for relating meteorological droughts in the continental US (CONUS) with physical covariates. We calculate the return period and reliability of meteorological droughts in different parts of CONUS by considering the correlation and the non-stationarity in drought events. We then compare the return period and reliability calculated assuming non-stationarity with that calculated assuming stationarity. The difference between the two estimates is used to quantify the extent of non-stationarity in droughts in different parts of CONUS. We also use the non-stationary frequency analysis model for attributing the causes of non-stationarity. Finally we will discuss the implications for water resources planning and management in the United States.

Returning to School for Higher Returns

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Park, Seonyoung

2011-01-01

On the basis of those respondents in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) who change jobs with an intervening period of education reinvestment, the conventional assumption of linearity of log wages in years of schooling is strongly rejected: a typical reinvestment for the 1980 through 1993 period is associated with a rise of about 3.5…

Drought, flood and rainfall analysis under climate change in Crete, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tapoglou, Evdokia; Vozinaki, Anthi-Eirini; Tsanis, Ioannis; Nerantzaki, Sofia; Nikolaidis, Nikolaos

2017-04-01

In this study an analysis on the drought frequency and magnitude under climate change in Crete, Greece is performed. The analysis was performed for the time period from 1983-2100, divided into three sub-periods (1983-1999, 2000-2049 and 2050-2099) for inter-comparison. Two climate models were studied MPI-ESM-LR-r1-CSC-REMO and EC-EARTH-r12-SMHI-RCA4, following three possible representative concentration pathways (+2.6, +4.5 and +8.5 W/m2). In order to perform the analysis the results of a SWAT simulation which covered the entity of Crete using 352 subbasins, was used. Drought events are recognized by using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to identify the meteorological drought events and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) for hydrological droughts. SPI and SRI drought indices, were used in order to identify the number of drought events for each climate model and scenario. In all cases, an increase in both severity and number of drought events was calculated for the future periods, compared to the baseline period 1983-1999. This increase was smaller for the +2.6 W/m2 scenario and largest for the +8.5 W/m2. The magnitude of events with 10 and 100 years return period was calculated for the subbasins of Crete and the most vulnerable were identified, both in terms of severity and the change throughout the years in index magnitude. Next a flood frequency analysis was performed for the entity of Crete Island in order to calculate the magnitude of events with 10 and 100 years return period. In order to perform the flood frequency analysis, the results of the SWAT simulation in terms of runoff in each subbasin are used. By calculating the magnitude of flood events with 10 and 100 years return period and the change in the magnitude throughout the time periods the most vulnerable subbasins are identified. The same frequency analysis was performed for the precipitation at each subbasin, and the magnitude of extreme precipitation events with 10 and 100 years return period was calculated. In this case the most significant changes appeared in Chania prefecture, having a 25-50% increase in extreme precipitation magnitude for the 10 years and the 100 years return period until the end of the third study period. Drought and flood frequency analysis can be proved a valuable tool in water management and infrastructure projects planning providing an integrated analysis for extreme event magnitude anticipation in Crete. The research reported in this paper was fully supported by the Project "Innovative solutions to climate change adaptation and governance in the water management of the Region of Crete - AQUAMAN" funded within the framework of the EEA Financial Mechanism 2009-2014.

The joint return period analysis of natural disasters based on monitoring and statistical modeling of multidimensional hazard factors.

PubMed

Liu, Xueqin; Li, Ning; Yuan, Shuai; Xu, Ning; Shi, Wenqin; Chen, Weibin

2015-12-15

As a random event, a natural disaster has the complex occurrence mechanism. The comprehensive analysis of multiple hazard factors is important in disaster risk assessment. In order to improve the accuracy of risk analysis and forecasting, the formation mechanism of a disaster should be considered in the analysis and calculation of multi-factors. Based on the consideration of the importance and deficiencies of multivariate analysis of dust storm disasters, 91 severe dust storm disasters in Inner Mongolia from 1990 to 2013 were selected as study cases in the paper. Main hazard factors from 500-hPa atmospheric circulation system, near-surface meteorological system, and underlying surface conditions were selected to simulate and calculate the multidimensional joint return periods. After comparing the simulation results with actual dust storm events in 54years, we found that the two-dimensional Frank Copula function showed the better fitting results at the lower tail of hazard factors and that three-dimensional Frank Copula function displayed the better fitting results at the middle and upper tails of hazard factors. However, for dust storm disasters with the short return period, three-dimensional joint return period simulation shows no obvious advantage. If the return period is longer than 10years, it shows significant advantages in extreme value fitting. Therefore, we suggest the multivariate analysis method may be adopted in forecasting and risk analysis of serious disasters with the longer return period, such as earthquake and tsunami. Furthermore, the exploration of this method laid the foundation for the prediction and warning of other nature disasters. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The index-flood and the GRADEX methods combination for flood frequency analysis.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuentes, Diana; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Quesada, Beatriz; Xu, Chong-Yu; Halldin, Sven; Beven, Keith

2017-04-01

Flood frequency analysis is used in many applications, including flood risk management, design of hydraulic structures, and urban planning. However, such analysis requires of long series of observed discharge data which are often not available in many basins around the world. In this study, we tested the usefulness of combining regional discharge and local precipitation data to estimate the event flood volume frequency curve for 63 catchments in Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean. This was achieved by combining two existing flood frequency analysis methods, the regionalization index-flood approach with the GRADEX method. For up to 10-years return period, similar shape of the scaled flood frequency curve for catchments with similar flood behaviour was assumed from the index-flood approach. For return periods larger than 10-years the probability distribution of rainfall and discharge volumes were assumed to be asymptotically and exponential-type functions with the same scale parameter from the GRADEX method. Results showed that if the mean annual flood (MAF), used as index-flood, is known, the index-flood approach performed well for up to 10 years return periods, resulting in 25% mean relative error in prediction. For larger return periods the prediction capability decreased but could be improved by the use of the GRADEX method. As the MAF is unknown at ungauged and short-period measured basins, we tested predicting the MAF using catchments climate-physical characteristics, and discharge statistics, the latter when observations were available for only 8 years. Only the use of discharge statistics resulted in acceptable predictions.

Long term analysis of wet and dry years in Seoul, Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoo, Chulsang

2006-03-01

This study investigated the recurrence characteristics of wet and dry years using the annual precipitation data collected in Seoul, Korea since 1776. More than one half of these 200 years of precipitation data are those collected in the Chosun Age using an old Korean rain gauge called Chukwooki. The recurrence characteristics of wet and dry years were investigated for several sets of thresholds, represented by use of the mean and standard deviation (stdv) of the annual precipitation such as mean±0.5stdv, mean±0.75stdv and mean±1.0stdv. These sets of thresholds have been decided so as to make the occurrence of wet and dry years follow the Poisson distribution. For a given set of thresholds, the wet, dry, and normal years are categorized, then the transition probabilities among those years were derived and compared. The average return periods were also derived using the stationary probabilities of wet and dry years. This analysis has been applied not only to the entire data but also to partial data sets composed of the data before and after the long dry period (lasting about 25 years) around 1900. This was to compare and detect the difference in the recurrence characteristics as well as the difference between the old Chukwooki and the modern flip-bucket style rain gauge data. As results, the overall recurrence patterns of wet and dry years have been found to be very similar. Only one obvious difference may be the return period of extremely dry years (for the threshold of mean-stdv), which after the long dry period was found to be longer than that before the long dry period (8.03 and 6.77 years, respectively). A similar result could also be found in the occurrence probability (or, the inverse of return period) of consecutive dry years estimated by applying the Poisson process. That is, for the lowest threshold of mean-stdv, the occurrence probability of consecutive dry years before the long dry period was higher than those after the long dry period. Thus, we may conclude that the possibility of long dry periods is decreasing recently.

Effects of individual variation in length, condition and run-time on return rates of wild-reared Atlantic salmon Salmo salar smolts.

PubMed

Armstrong, J D; McKelvey, S; Smith, G W; Rycroft, P; Fryer, R J

2018-03-01

Groups of wild-reared Atlantic salmon Salmo salar smolts were captured during their seaward migration on a tributary of the River Conon, Scotland, U.K., from 1999 to 2014 and tagged with passive integrated transponders (PIT). Fish that subsequently returned to the river after growing at sea were recorded automatically by a PIT-detector in a fish pass. Return rate was related directly to length and condition and inversely to day of the year that the smolt was tagged. Over years, as the study progressed, there was a significant increase in the proportion of smolts returning after two or more years at sea and no trend in returns of salmon having spent one winter at sea. There was no trend in the date of return of salmon across the study period. Fish that had spent more winters at sea returned earlier in the year. © 2018 Crown Copyright. Journal of Fish Biology © 2018 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

The return periods and risk assessment of severe dust storms in Inner Mongolia with consideration of the main contributing factors.

PubMed

Liu, Xueqin; Li, Ning; Xie, Wei; Wu, Jidong; Zhang, Peng; Ji, Zhonghui

2012-09-01

This study presents a methodology for return period analysis and risk assessment of severe dust storm disaster. Meteorological observation data, soil moisture data, and remote sensing data from 30 meteorological stations in Inner Mongolia (western China) from 1985 to 2006 were used for the study. A composite index of severe dust storm disaster (Index I (SDS)) based on the influence mechanisms of the main contributing factors was developed by using the analytic hierarchy process and the weighted comprehensive method, and the hazard risk curves (i.e., the transcendental probability curves of I (SDS)) for the 30 stations were established using the parameter estimation method. We then analyzed the risk of the occurrence of severe dust storm under different scenarios of 5-, 10-, 20-, and 50-year return periods. The results show that the risk decreased from west to east across Inner Mongolia, and there are four severe dust storm occurrence peak value centers, including Guaizihu, Jilantai, Hailisu, and Zhurihe-Erenhot. The severity of dust storms in seven places will be intolerable in the 50-year return period scenario and in three places in the 20-year return period scenario. These results indicate that these locations should concentrate forces on disaster prevention, monitoring, and early warning. The I (SDS) was developed as an easily understandable tool useful for the assessment and comparison of the relative risk of severe dust storm disasters in different areas. The risk assessment was specifically intended to support local and national government agencies in their management of severe dust storm disasters in their efforts to (1) make resource allocation decisions, (2) make high-level planning decisions, and (3) raise public awareness of severe dust storm risk.

Equity prices as a simple harmonic oscillator with noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ataullah, Ali; Tippett, Mark

2007-08-01

The centred return on the London Stock Exchange's FTSE All Share Index is modelled as a simple harmonic oscillator with noise over the period from 1 January, 1994 until 30 June 2006. Our empirical results are compatible with the hypothesis that there is a period in the FTSE All Share Index of between two and two and one half years. This means the centred return will on average continue to increase for about a year after reaching the minimum in its oscillatory cycle; alternatively, it will continue on average to decline for about a year after reaching a maximum. Our analysis also shows that there is potential to exploit the harmonic nature of the returns process to earn abnormal profits. Extending our analysis to the low energy states of a quantum harmonic oscillator is also suggested.

From theoretical fixed return period events to real flooding impacts: a new approach to set flooding scenarios, thresholds and alerts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parravicini, Paola; Cislaghi, Matteo; Condemi, Leonardo

2017-04-01

ARPA Lombardia is the Environmental Protection Agency of Lombardy, a wide region in the North of Italy. ARPA is in charge of river monitoring either for Civil Protection or water balance purposes. It cooperates with the Civil Protection Agency of Lombardy (RL-PC) in flood forecasting and early warning. The early warning system is based on rainfall and discharge thresholds: when a threshold exceeding is expected, RL-PC disseminates an alert from yellow to red. The conventional threshold evaluation is based on events at a fixed return period. Anyway, the impacts of events with the same return period may be different along the river course due to the specific characteristics of the affected areas. A new approach is introduced. It defines different scenarios, corresponding to different flood impacts. A discharge threshold is then associated to each scenario and the return period of the scenario is computed backwards. Flood scenarios are defined in accordance with National Civil Protection guidelines, which describe the expected flood impact and associate a colour to the scenario from green (no relevant effects) to red (major floods). A range of discharges is associated with each scenario since they cause the same flood impact; the threshold is set as the discharge corresponding to the transition between two scenarios. A wide range of event-based information is used to estimate the thresholds. As first guess, the thresholds are estimated starting from hydraulic model outputs and the people or infrastructures flooded according to the simulations. Eventually the model estimates are validated with real event knowledge: local Civil Protection Emergency Plans usually contain very detailed local impact description at known river levels or discharges, RL-PC collects flooding information notified by the population, newspapers often report flood events on web, data from the river monitoring network provide evaluation of actually happened levels and discharges. The methodology allows to give a return period for each scenario. The return period may vary along the river course according to the discharges associated with the scenario. The values of return period may show the areas characterized by higher risk and can be an important basis for civil protection emergency planning and river monitoring. For example, considering the Lambro River, the red scenario (major flood) shows a return period of 50 years in the northern rural part of the catchment. When the river crosses the city of Milan, the return period drops to 4 years. Afterwards it goes up to more than 100 years when the river flows in the agricultural areas in the southern part of the catchment. In addition, the knowledge gained with event-based analysis allows evaluating the compliance of the monitoring network with early warning requirements and represents the starting point for further development of the network itself.

A new method for estimating the probable maximum hail loss of a building portfolio based on hailfall intensity determined by radar measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aller, D.; Hohl, R.; Mair, F.; Schiesser, H.-H.

2003-04-01

Extreme hailfall can cause massive damage to building structures. For the insurance and reinsurance industry it is essential to estimate the probable maximum hail loss of their portfolio. The probable maximum loss (PML) is usually defined with a return period of 1 in 250 years. Statistical extrapolation has a number of critical points, as historical hail loss data are usually only available from some events while insurance portfolios change over the years. At the moment, footprints are derived from historical hail damage data. These footprints (mean damage patterns) are then moved over a portfolio of interest to create scenario losses. However, damage patterns of past events are based on the specific portfolio that was damaged during that event and can be considerably different from the current spread of risks. A new method for estimating the probable maximum hail loss to a building portfolio is presented. It is shown that footprints derived from historical damages are different to footprints of hail kinetic energy calculated from radar reflectivity measurements. Based on the relationship between radar-derived hail kinetic energy and hail damage to buildings, scenario losses can be calculated. A systematic motion of the hail kinetic energy footprints over the underlying portfolio creates a loss set. It is difficult to estimate the return period of losses calculated with footprints derived from historical damages being moved around. To determine the return periods of the hail kinetic energy footprints over Switzerland, 15 years of radar measurements and 53 years of agricultural hail losses are available. Based on these data, return periods of several types of hailstorms were derived for different regions in Switzerland. The loss set is combined with the return periods of the event set to obtain an exceeding frequency curve, which can be used to derive the PML.

Deriving simple and adjusted financial rates of return on Mississippi timber lands by combining forest inventory and analysis and Timber Mart-South data

Treesearch

Andrew J. Hartsell

2007-01-01

This study compares returns on investments in Mississippi timber lands with returns on alternative investments. The real annual rates of return from mature, undisturbed timber lands in Mississippi over a 17-year period (1977-94) were computed. Southern Research Station Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) timber volume data and Timber Mart-South (TMS) data on timber...

Periodicity of dental recall visits for young children first seen in community health centers

PubMed Central

Kuthy, RA; Kavand, G; Momany, ET; Jones, MP; Askelson, NM; Chi, DL; Wehby, GL; Damiano, PC

2014-01-01

Objectives To study whether young children who had their first dental visit (FDV) at a Federally Qualified Health Center (FQHC) are likely to return within 12 months for a second dental episode. Methods 200 Medicaid-enrolled children who were less than 6-years-old were randomly selected from five Iowa FQHCs. Dental charts were abstracted and all Medicaid claims data, regardless of provider, were followed for 36 months. Medical and dental Medicaid claims data were also appended to the data set, along with relevant data from the child’s birth certificate. Multivariable logistic regression, using backward elimination, was used to determine variables that predicted whether a child returned for his or her dental recall visit with one year of the initial dental episode. Results 56.5% of these children returned within one year. The number of children in the household demonstrated a positive impact for children returning for a second dental episode. However, an increase in the frequency of medical well-child visits at the FQHC prior to the FDV had a negative influence. There was an inverse association between dental caries at the FDV and likelihood of returning for the second visit; however, it was not statistically significant. Age at FDV did not make a difference in regard to returning for a second episode within the allotted time period. Conclusions There has been a recent emphasis for children to visit a dentist by age 1. We should not overlook the importance of diligently working with higher risk families to instill the importance of regular, periodic preventive dental care. PMID:23574299

26 CFR 48.4071-3 - Imposition of tax on tires and tubes delivered to manufacturer's retail outlet.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... consecutive calendar months during the 2-year period immediately preceding the first day included in the... during such a 12-month period, the determination is made on the basis of the available experience of the... calendar months during the 2-year period immediately preceding the first day included in the return period...

26 CFR 48.4071-3 - Imposition of tax on tires and tubes delivered to manufacturer's retail outlet.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... consecutive calendar months during the 2-year period immediately preceding the first day included in the... during such a 12-month period, the determination is made on the basis of the available experience of the... calendar months during the 2-year period immediately preceding the first day included in the return period...

26 CFR 48.4071-3 - Imposition of tax on tires and tubes delivered to manufacturer's retail outlet.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... consecutive calendar months during the 2-year period immediately preceding the first day included in the... during such a 12-month period, the determination is made on the basis of the available experience of the... calendar months during the 2-year period immediately preceding the first day included in the return period...

26 CFR 48.4071-3 - Imposition of tax on tires and tubes delivered to manufacturer's retail outlet.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... consecutive calendar months during the 2-year period immediately preceding the first day included in the... during such a 12-month period, the determination is made on the basis of the available experience of the... calendar months during the 2-year period immediately preceding the first day included in the return period...

Risk management considerations and the pregnancy handheld record. An audit of the return rate of the pregnancy handheld record.

PubMed

Toohill, Jocelyn; Soong, Barbara; Meldrum, Melissa

2006-12-01

Risk management is integral to the provision of contemporary health care. As maternity practices change and with a commitment on women being at the centre of care, one strategy has been for women to retain their records during the antenatal period. This paper explores the return rate of the pregnancy handheld record in a major tertiary facility and discusses the risk management implications when the record is not available upon presentation to the treating practitioner. Four audits were conducted over a 2 year period to determine the return rate of the pregnancy handheld record at time of admission for labour and birth. A total of 1096 records were returned out of a possible 1256 during the study. A 6.6% increase in the return rate was achieved over the 4 audit periods (82-88.5%) with an overall return rate of 85%. Our audit highlights the need for consumers, clinicians and heath care facilities to consider the advantages and disadvantages of the pregnancy handheld record, as well as the medico-legal responsibilities that ultimately fall back on the health facility.

The Return of the Native: The Blurred Boundaries of Insider/Outsider Research in an English Secondary School

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Perryman, Jane

2011-01-01

This paper outlines the methodological issues I faced during my research as a "returning native" in an English secondary school. The empirical research took the form of a three-year case study and used some ethnographic methods, as it comprised interviews carried out over a period of three academic years in the school in which I was once…

Severe wind gust thresholds for Meteoalarm derived from uniform return periods in ECA&D

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stepek, A.; Wijnant, I. L.; van der Schrier, G.; van den Besselaar, E. J. M.; Klein Tank, A. M. G.

2012-06-01

In this study we present an alternative wind gust warning guideline for Meteoalarm, the severe weather warning website for Europe. There are unrealistically large differences in levels and issuing frequencies of all warning levels currently in use between neighbouring Meteoalarm countries. This study provides a guide for the Meteoalarm community to review their wind gust warning thresholds. A more uniform warning system is achieved by using one pan-European return period per warning level. The associated return values will be different throughout Europe because they depend on local climate conditions, but they will not change abruptly at country borders as is currently the case for the thresholds. As return values are a measure of the possible danger of an event and its impact on society, they form an ideal basis for a warning system. Validated wind gust measurements from the European Climate Assessment and Dataset (ECA&D, http://www.ecad.eu) were used to calculate return values of the annual maximum wind gust. The current thresholds are compared with return values for 3 different return periods: 10 times a year return periods for yellow warnings, 2 yr periods for orange and 5 yr periods for red warnings. So far 10 countries provide wind gust data to ECA&D. Due to the ECA&D completeness requirements and the fact that some countries provided too few stations to be representative for that country, medians of the return values of annual maximum wind gust could be calculated for 6 of the 10 countries. Alternative guideline thresholds are presented for Norway, Ireland, The Netherlands, Germany, the Czech Republic and Spain and the need to distinguish between coastal, inland and mountainous regions is demonstrated. The new thresholds based on uniform return periods differ significantly from the current ones, particularly for coastal and mountainous areas. We are aware of other, sometimes binding factors (e.g. laws) that prevent participating counties from implementing this climatology based warning system.

26 CFR 1.6038-2 - Information returns required of United States persons with respect to annual accounting periods...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

...) beginning after December 31, 1962, of each foreign corporation which that person controls (as defined in... defined in section 1504(d) of the Code which makes a consolidated return for the taxable year. The return... determining control as defined in paragraph (b) of this section. (d) U.S. person—(1) In general. For purposes...

Impact of reproductive efficiency over time and mare financial value on economic returns among Thoroughbred mares in central Kentucky.

PubMed

Bosh, K A; Powell, D; Neibergs, J S; Shelton, B; Zent, W

2009-12-01

There have been no studies reporting the impact of reproductive efficiency and mare financial value on economic returns. To explore the economic consequences of differences in reproductive efficiency over time in the Thoroughbred mare. Complete production records for 1176 mares were obtained. Production history and drift in foaling date were calculated. Multiple logistic regression was used to identify factors influencing the probability of producing a registered foal in 2005. The 'net present value' and 'internal rate of return' were calculated for economic scenarios involving different initial mare financial values, levels of reproductive efficiency, and durations of investment. Among mares that did not produce a foal every year (63%), the mean time before failing to produce a registered foal was 3.4 years. The majority of mares drifted later in their foaling dates in subsequent foaling seasons. Increasing mare age, foaling after 1st April, needing to be mated multiple times during the season, and producing a lower number of foals in continuous sequence during previous years decreased the probability of producing a registered foal. Over a 7 year investment period, live foals must be produced in all but one year to yield a positive financial return. Profitability was highest among mares of greatest financial value. Mares are long-term investments due to the extended period before there is a return on the investment. Improving our understanding of mare, stallion and management factors that affect the likelihood of producing a live foal are critical to ensuring a positive financial return. Additional work is needed to test the robustness of the study's conclusions when the cost and revenue assumptions are varied. This information can assist in assessing mare profitability and developing management strategies to maximise profitability.

Association between Stock Market Gains and Losses and Google Searches

PubMed Central

Arditi, Eli; Yechiam, Eldad; Zahavi, Gal

2015-01-01

Experimental studies in the area of Psychology and Behavioral Economics have suggested that people change their search pattern in response to positive and negative events. Using Internet search data provided by Google, we investigated the relationship between stock-specific events and related Google searches. We studied daily data from 13 stocks from the Dow-Jones and NASDAQ100 indices, over a period of 4 trading years. Focusing on periods in which stocks were extensively searched (Intensive Search Periods), we found a correlation between the magnitude of stock returns at the beginning of the period and the volume, peak, and duration of search generated during the period. This relation between magnitudes of stock returns and subsequent searches was considerably magnified in periods following negative stock returns. Yet, we did not find that intensive search periods following losses were associated with more Google searches than periods following gains. Thus, rather than increasing search, losses improved the fit between people’s search behavior and the extent of real-world events triggering the search. The findings demonstrate the robustness of the attentional effect of losses. PMID:26513371

Risk-Informed Mean Recurrence Intervals for Updated Wind Maps in ASCE 7-16.

PubMed

McAllister, Therese P; Wang, Naiyu; Ellingwood, Bruce R

2018-05-01

ASCE 7 is moving toward adopting load requirements that are consistent with risk-informed design goals characteristic of performance-based engineering (PBE). ASCE 7-10 provided wind maps that correspond to return periods of 300, 700, and 1,700 years for Risk Categories I, II, and combined III/IV, respectively. The risk targets for Risk Categories III and IV buildings and other structures (designated as essential facilities) are different in PBE. The reliability analyses reported in this paper were conducted using updated wind load data to (1) confirm that the return periods already in ASCE 7-10 were also appropriate for risk-informed PBE, and (2) to determine a new risk-based return period for Risk Category IV. The use of data for wind directionality factor, K d , which has become available from recent wind tunnel tests, revealed that reliabilities associated with wind load combinations for Risk Category II structures are, in fact, consistent with the reliabilities associated with the ASCE 7 gravity load combinations. This paper shows that the new wind maps in ASCE 7-16, which are based on return periods of 300, 700, 1,700, and 3,000 years for Risk Categories I, II, III, and IV, respectively), achieve the reliability targets in Section 1.3.1.3 of ASCE 7-16 for nonhurricane wind loads.

Weather Typing-Based Flood Frequency Analysis Verified for Exceptional Historical Events of Past 500 Years Along the Meuse River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Niel, J.; Demarée, G.; Willems, P.

2017-10-01

Governments, policy makers, and water managers are pushed by recent socioeconomic developments such as population growth and increased urbanization inclusive of occupation of floodplains to impose very stringent regulations on the design of hydrological structures. These structures need to withstand storms with return periods typically ranging between 1,250 and 10,000 years. Such quantification involves extrapolations of systematically measured instrumental data, possibly complemented by quantitative and/or qualitative historical data and paleoflood data. The accuracy of the extrapolations is, however, highly unclear in practice. In order to evaluate extreme river peak flow extrapolation and accuracy, we studied historical and instrumental data of the past 500 years along the Meuse River. We moreover propose an alternative method for the estimation of the extreme value distribution of river peak flows, based on weather types derived by sea level pressure reconstructions. This approach results in a more accurate estimation of the tail of the distribution, where current methods are underestimating the design levels related to extreme high return periods. The design flood for a 1,250 year return period is estimated at 4,800 m3 s-1 for the proposed method, compared with 3,450 and 3,900 m3 s-1 for a traditional method and a previous study.

Seismic hazard analysis with PSHA method in four cities in Java.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elistyawati, Y.; Palupi, I. R.; Suharsono

2016-11-01

In this study the tectonic earthquakes was observed through the peak ground acceleration through the PSHA method by dividing the area of the earthquake source. This study applied the earthquake data from 1965 - 2015 that has been analyzed the completeness of the data, location research was the entire Java with stressed in four large cities prone to earthquakes. The results were found to be a hazard map with a return period of 500 years, 2500 years return period, and the hazard curve were four major cities (Jakarta, Bandung, Yogyakarta, and the city of Banyuwangi). Results Java PGA hazard map 500 years had a peak ground acceleration within 0 g ≥ 0.5 g, while the return period of 2500 years had a value of 0 to ≥ 0.8 g. While, the PGA hazard curves on the city's most influential source of the earthquake was from sources such as fault Cimandiri backgroud, for the city of Bandung earthquake sources that influence the seismic source fault dent background form. In other side, the city of Yogyakarta earthquake hazard curve of the most influential was the source of the earthquake background of the Opak fault, and the most influential hazard curve of Banyuwangi earthquake was the source of Java and Sumba megatruts earthquake.

Analysis of extreme precipitation characteristics in low mountain areas based on three-dimensional copulas—taking Kuandian County as an example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Cailin; Ren, Xuehui; Li, Ying

2017-04-01

We defined the threshold of extreme precipitation using detrended fluctuation analysis based on daily precipitation during 1955-2013 in Kuandian County, Liaoning Province. Three-dimensional copulas were introduced to analyze the characteristics of four extreme precipitation factors: the annual extreme precipitation day, extreme precipitation amount, annual average extreme precipitation intensity, and extreme precipitation rate of contribution. The results show that (1) the threshold is 95.0 mm, extreme precipitation events generally occur 1-2 times a year, the average extreme precipitation intensity is 100-150 mm, and the extreme precipitation amount is 100-270 mm accounting for 10 to 37 % of annual precipitation. (2) The generalized extreme value distribution, extreme value distribution, and generalized Pareto distribution are suitable for fitting the distribution function for each element of extreme precipitation. The Ali-Mikhail-Haq (AMH) copula function reflects the joint characteristics of extreme precipitation factors. (3) The return period of the three types has significant synchronicity, and the joint return period and co-occurrence return period have long delay when the return period of the single factor is long. This reflects the inalienability of extreme precipitation factors. The co-occurrence return period is longer than that of the single factor and joint return period. (4) The single factor fitting only reflects single factor information of extreme precipitation but is unrelated to the relationship between factors. Three-dimensional copulas represent the internal information of extreme precipitation factors and are closer to the actual. The copula function is potentially widely applicable for the multiple factors of extreme precipitation.

RATIONAL DETERMINATION METHOD OF PROBABLE FREEZING INDEX FOR n-YEARS CONSIDERING THE REGIONAL CHARACTERISTICS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kawabata, Shinichiro; Hayashi, Keiji; Kameyama, Shuichi

This paper investigates a method for ob taining the probable freezing index for n -years from past frostaction damage and meteorological data. From investigati on of Japanese cold winter data from the areas of Hokkaido, Tohoku and south of Tohoku, it was found that the extent of cold winter had regularity by location south or north. Also, after obtaining return periods of cold winters by area, obvious regional characteristics were found. Mild winters are rare in Hokkaido. However, it was clarified that when Hokkaido had cold winters, its size increased. It wa s effective to determine the probable freezing indices as 20-, 15- and 10-year return periods for Hokkaido, Tohoku and south of Tohoku, respectively.

Subsequent-year recaptures at winter sites in three species of shrubland sparrows (Emberizidae)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knick, Steven T.; Leu, Matthias; Hanser, Steven E.

2017-01-01

The tendency by individual birds to return to winter sites in subsequent years can be important in assessing the potential influence of habitat changes during the nonbreeding period. We recaptured five Brewer's (Spizella breweri), seven sagebrush (Artemisiospiza nevadensis), and three black-throated (Amphispiza bilineata) sparrows from 1–3 subsequent years at the same winter location following their initial capture. Two Brewer's and one sagebrush sparrow returned to the same winter location at least 4 years after their initial capture. Levels of feather deuterium indicated that birds captured together on winter sites had different breeding ranges. Although individuals of these species returned to specific sites used in previous years, the low recapture rate suggests that wintering individuals may use an itinerant strategy adapted to seasonal food resources.

How are flood risk estimates affected by the choice of return-periods?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, P. J.; de Moel, H.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

2011-12-01

Flood management is more and more adopting a risk based approach, whereby flood risk is the product of the probability and consequences of flooding. One of the most common approaches in flood risk assessment is to estimate the damage that would occur for floods of several exceedance probabilities (or return periods), to plot these on an exceedance probability-loss curve (risk curve) and to estimate risk as the area under the curve. However, there is little insight into how the selection of the return-periods (which ones and how many) used to calculate risk actually affects the final risk calculation. To gain such insights, we developed and validated an inundation model capable of rapidly simulating inundation extent and depth, and dynamically coupled this to an existing damage model. The method was applied to a section of the River Meuse in the southeast of the Netherlands. Firstly, we estimated risk based on a risk curve using yearly return periods from 2 to 10 000 yr (€ 34 million p.a.). We found that the overall risk is greatly affected by the number of return periods used to construct the risk curve, with over-estimations of annual risk between 33% and 100% when only three return periods are used. In addition, binary assumptions on dike failure can have a large effect (a factor two difference) on risk estimates. Also, the minimum and maximum return period considered in the curve affects the risk estimate considerably. The results suggest that more research is needed to develop relatively simple inundation models that can be used to produce large numbers of inundation maps, complementary to more complex 2-D-3-D hydrodynamic models. It also suggests that research into flood risk could benefit by paying more attention to the damage caused by relatively high probability floods.

Levee reliability analyses for various flood return periods - a case study in southern Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, W.-C.; Yu, H.-W.; Weng, M.-C.

2015-04-01

In recent years, heavy rainfall conditions have caused disasters around the world. To prevent losses by floods, levees have often been constructed in inundation-prone areas. This study performed reliability analyses for the Chiuliao First Levee in southern Taiwan. The failure-related parameters were the water level, the scouring depth, and the in situ friction angle. Three major failure mechanisms were considered: the slope sliding failure of the levee and the sliding and overturning failures of the retaining wall. When the variability of the in situ friction angle and the scouring depth are considered for various flood return periods, the variations of the factor of safety for the different failure mechanisms show that the retaining wall sliding and overturning failures are more sensitive to the change of the friction angle. When the flood return period is greater than 2 years, the levee could fail with slope sliding for all values of the water level difference. The results of levee stability analysis considering the variability of different parameters could aid engineers in designing the levee cross sections, especially with potential failure mechanisms in mind.

The Relationship between Return on Profitability and Costs of Outsourcing Information Technology Technical Support

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Odion, Segun

2011-01-01

The purpose of this quantitative correlational research study was to examine the relationship between costs of operation and total return on profitability of outsourcing information technology technical support in a two-year period of outsourcing operations. United States of America list of Fortune 1000 companies' chief information officers…

Challenges estimating the return period of extreme floods for reinsurance applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raven, Emma; Busby, Kathryn; Liu, Ye

2013-04-01

Mapping and modelling extreme natural events is fundamental within the insurance and reinsurance industry for assessing risk. For example, insurers might use a 1 in 100-year flood hazard map to set the annual premium of a property, whilst a reinsurer might assess the national scale loss associated with the 1 in 200-year return period for capital and regulatory requirements. Using examples from a range of international flood projects, we focus on exploring how to define what the n-year flood looks like for predictive uses in re/insurance applications, whilst considering challenges posed by short historical flow records and the spatial and temporal complexities of flood. First, we shall explore the use of extreme value theory (EVT) statistics for extrapolating data beyond the range of observations in a marginal analysis. In particular, we discuss how to estimate the return period of historical flood events and explore the impact that a range of statistical decisions have on these estimates. Decisions include: (1) selecting which distribution type to apply (e.g. generalised Pareto distribution (GPD) vs. generalised extreme value distribution (GEV)); (2) if former, the choice of the threshold above which the GPD is fitted to the data; and (3) the necessity to perform a cluster analysis to group flow peaks to temporally represent individual flood events. Second, we summarise a specialised multivariate extreme value model, which combines the marginal analysis above with dependence modelling to generate industry standard event sets containing thousands of simulated, equi-probable floods across a region/country. These events represent the typical range of anticipated flooding across a region and can be used to estimate the largest or most widespread events that are expected to occur. Finally, we summarise how a reinsurance catastrophe model combines the event set with detailed flood hazard maps to estimate the financial cost of floods; both the full event set and also individual extreme events. Since the predicted loss estimates, typically in the form of a curve plotting return period against modelled loss, are used in the pricing of reinsurance, we demonstrate the importance of the estimated return period and understanding the uncertainties associated with it.

Effect of initial conditions and of intra-event rainfall intensity variability on shallow landslide triggering return period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peres, David Johnny; Cancelliere, Antonino

2016-04-01

Assessment of shallow landslide hazard is important for appropriate planning of mitigation measures. Generally, return period of slope instability is assumed as a quantitative metric to map landslide triggering hazard on a catchment. The most commonly applied approach to estimate such return period consists in coupling a physically-based landslide triggering model (hydrological and slope stability) with rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves. Among the drawbacks of such an approach, the following assumptions may be mentioned: (1) prefixed initial conditions, with no regard to their probability of occurrence, and (2) constant intensity-hyetographs. In our work we propose the use of a Monte Carlo simulation approach in order to investigate the effects of the two above mentioned assumptions. The approach is based on coupling a physically based hydrological and slope stability model with a stochastic rainfall time series generator. By this methodology a long series of synthetic rainfall data can be generated and given as input to a landslide triggering physically based model, in order to compute the return period of landslide triggering as the mean inter-arrival time of a factor of safety less than one. In particular, we couple the Neyman-Scott rectangular pulses model for hourly rainfall generation and the TRIGRS v.2 unsaturated model for the computation of transient response to individual rainfall events. Initial conditions are computed by a water table recession model that links initial conditions at a given event to the final response at the preceding event, thus taking into account variable inter-arrival time between storms. One-thousand years of synthetic hourly rainfall are generated to estimate return periods up to 100 years. Applications are first carried out to map landslide triggering hazard in the Loco catchment, located in highly landslide-prone area of the Peloritani Mountains, Sicily, Italy. Then a set of additional simulations are performed in order to compare the results obtained by the traditional IDF-based method with the Monte Carlo ones. Results indicate that both variability of initial conditions and of intra-event rainfall intensity significantly affect return period estimation. In particular, the common assumption of an initial water table depth at the base of the pervious strata may lead in practice to an overestimation of return period up to one order of magnitude, while the assumption of constant-intensity hyetographs may yield an overestimation by a factor of two or three. Hence, it may be concluded that the analysed simplifications involved in the traditional IDF-based approach generally imply a non-conservative assessment of landslide triggering hazard.

Environmental Exposure Effects on Composite Materials for Commercial Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoffman, D. J.

1981-01-01

This period's activities were highlighted by continued long term and accelerated lab exposure testing, and by completion of all fabrication tasks on the optional material systems, AS1/3501-6 and Kevlar 49/F161-188. Initial baseline testing was performed on the two optional material systems. Long term exposure specimens were returned from three of the four ground rack sites and from two of the three aircraft locations. Test data from specimens returned from Dryden after 2 years exposure do not indicate continuing trends of strength reduction from the 1 year data. Test data from specimens returned from the Wellington, new Zealand ground rack and on Air New Zealand aircraft after 1 year exposure show strength changes fairly typical of other locations.

Collapse and recovery of forage fish populations prior to commercial exploitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McClatchie, S.; Hendy, I. L.; Thompson, A. R.; Watson, W.

2017-02-01

We use a new, well-calibrated 500 year paleorecord off southern California to determine collapse frequency, cross correlation, persistence, and return times of exploited forage fish populations. The paleorecord shows that "collapse" (defined as <10% of the mean peak biomass) is a normal state repeatedly experienced by northern anchovy, Pacific hake, and Pacific sardine which were collapsed 29-40% of the time, prior to commercial fishing exploitation. Mean (± SD) persistence of "fishable biomass" (defined as one third mean peak biomass from the paleorecord) was 19 ± 18, 15 ± 17, and 12 ± 7 years for anchovy, hake, and sardine. Mean return times to the same biomass was 8 years for anchovy but 22 years for sardine and hake. Further, we find that sardine and anchovy are positively correlated over 400 years, consistent with coherent declines of both species off California. Persistence and return times combined with positive sardine-anchovy correlation indicate that on average 1-2 decades of fishable biomass will be followed by 1-2 decades of low forage. Forage populations are resilient on the 500 year time scale, but their collapse and recovery cycle (based on the paleorecord) are suited to alternating periods of high fishing mortality and periods of little or no fishing.

Climatic Droughts and the Impacts on Crop Yields in Northern India during the Past Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ge, Y.; Cai, X.; Zhu, T.

2014-12-01

Drought has become an increasingly severe threat to water and food security recently. This study presents a novel method to calculate the return period of drought, considering drought as event characterized by expected drought inter-arrival time, duration, severity and peak intensity. Recently, Copula distribution, a multivariable probability distribution, is used to deal with strongly correlated variables in analyzing complex hydrologic phenomenon. This study assesses drought conditions in Northern India, including 8 sites, in the past century using Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from two latest datasets, Dai (2011, 2013) and Sheffield et al. (2012), which concluded conflicting results about global average drought trend. Our results include the change of the severity, intensity and duration of drought events during the past century and the impact of the drought condition on crop yields in the region. It is found that drought variables are highly correlated, thus copulas joint distribution enables the estimation of multi-variate return period. Based on Dai's dataset from 1900 to 2012, for a fixed drought return period the severity and duration is lower for the period before1955 in sites close to the Indus basin (site 1) or off the coast of the Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal) (site 8), while they are higher for the period after 1955 in other inland sites (sites 3-7), (e.g., severity in Fig.1). Projections based on two models (IPCC AR4 and AR5) in Dai (2011, 2013) suggested less severity and shorter duration in longer-year drought (e.g., 100-year drought), but larger in shorter-year drought (e.g., 2-year drought). Drought could bring nonlinear responses and unexpected losses in agriculture system, thus prediction and management are essential. Therefore, in the years with extreme drought conditions, impact assessment of drought on crop yield of corn, barley, wheat and sorghum will be also conducted through correlating crop yields with drought conditions during corresponding growing seasons. A. Dai, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D12115 (2011).A. Dai, Nature Climate Change, 3, 52-58 (2013). J. Sheffield, E.F. Wood, M. L. Roderick, Nature, 491, 435-438 (2012) Fig. 1 Return period for severity from 1900 to 1954 (green), from 1955 to 2012 (red), and from 2013 to 2099 (black for AR4, blue for AR5), respectively for 8 sites.

Fault specific GIS based seismic hazard maps for the Attica region, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deligiannakis, G.; Papanikolaou, I. D.; Roberts, G.

2018-04-01

Traditional seismic hazard assessment methods are based on the historical seismic records for the calculation of an annual probability of exceedance for a particular ground motion level. A new fault-specific seismic hazard assessment method is presented, in order to address problems related to the incompleteness and the inhomogeneity of the historical records and to obtain higher spatial resolution of hazard. This method is applied to the region of Attica, which is the most densely populated area in Greece, as nearly half of the country's population lives in Athens and its surrounding suburbs, in the Greater Athens area. The methodology is based on a database of 24 active faults that could cause damage to Attica in case of seismic rupture. This database provides information about the faults slip rates, lengths and expected magnitudes. The final output of the method is four fault-specific seismic hazard maps, showing the recurrence of expected intensities for each locality. These maps offer a high spatial resolution, as they consider the surface geology. Despite the fact that almost half of the Attica region lies on the lowest seismic risk zone according to the official seismic hazard zonation of Greece, different localities have repeatedly experienced strong ground motions during the last 15 kyrs. Moreover, the maximum recurrence for each intensity occurs in different localities across Attica. Highest recurrence for intensity VII (151-156 times over 15 kyrs, or up to a 96 year return period) is observed in the central part of the Athens basin. The maximum intensity VIII recurrence (115 times over 15 kyrs, or up to a 130 year return period) is observed in the western part of Attica, while the maximum intensity IX (73-77/15 kyrs, or a 195 year return period) and X (25-29/15 kyrs, or a 517 year return period) recurrences are observed near the South Alkyonides fault system, which dominates the strong ground motions hazard in the western part of the Attica mainland.

Scalability of a Methodology for Generating Technical Trading Rules with GAPs Based on Risk-Return Adjustment and Incremental Training

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de La Cal, E. A.; Fernández, E. M.; Quiroga, R.; Villar, J. R.; Sedano, J.

In previous works a methodology was defined, based on the design of a genetic algorithm GAP and an incremental training technique adapted to the learning of series of stock market values. The GAP technique consists in a fusion of GP and GA. The GAP algorithm implements the automatic search for crisp trading rules taking as objectives of the training both the optimization of the return obtained and the minimization of the assumed risk. Applying the proposed methodology, rules have been obtained for a period of eight years of the S&P500 index. The achieved adjustment of the relation return-risk has generated rules with returns very superior in the testing period to those obtained applying habitual methodologies and even clearly superior to Buy&Hold. This work probes that the proposed methodology is valid for different assets in a different market than previous work.

Statistical analysis of bankrupting and non-bankrupting stocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Qian; Wang, Fengzhong; Wei, Jianrong; Liang, Yuan; Huang, Jiping; Stanley, H. Eugene

2012-04-01

The recent financial crisis has caused extensive world-wide economic damage, affecting in particular those who invested in companies that eventually filed for bankruptcy. A better understanding of stocks that become bankrupt would be helpful in reducing risk in future investments. Economists have conducted extensive research on this topic, and here we ask whether statistical physics concepts and approaches may offer insights into pre-bankruptcy stock behavior. To this end, we study all 20092 stocks listed in US stock markets for the 20-year period 1989-2008, including 4223 (21 percent) that became bankrupt during that period. We find that, surprisingly, the distributions of the daily returns of those stocks that become bankrupt differ significantly from those that do not. Moreover, these differences are consistent for the entire period studied. We further study the relation between the distribution of returns and the length of time until bankruptcy, and observe that larger differences of the distribution of returns correlate with shorter time periods preceding bankruptcy. This behavior suggests that sharper fluctuations in the stock price occur when the stock is closer to bankruptcy. We also analyze the cross-correlations between the return and the trading volume, and find that stocks approaching bankruptcy tend to have larger return-volume cross-correlations than stocks that are not. Furthermore, the difference increases as bankruptcy approaches. We conclude that before a firm becomes bankrupt its stock exhibits unusual behavior that is statistically quantifiable.

Flood Discharge Analysis with Nakayasu Method Using Combination of HEC-RAS Method on Deli River in Medan City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harahap, Rumilla; Jeumpa, Kemala; Hadibroto, Bambang

2018-03-01

The problem in this research is how in the rainy season the water does not overflow, does not occur flood and during the dry season does not occur drought so it can adjust the condition or existence of Deli river which is around Medan city. Deli River floods often occur, either caused by a smaller capacity than the existing discharge, lack of maintenance and drainage and disposal systems that do not fit with the environment, resulting in flood subscriptions every year. The purpose of this research is to know flood discharge at Deli river as Flood control in Medan city. This research is analyzed on several methods such as log Pearson, Gumbel and hydrograph unit, while HEC-RAS method is modeling conducted in analyzing the water profile of the Deli River. Furthermore, the calculation of the periodic flood discharge using the Nakayasu Method. Calculation result at Deli River return period flood discharge 2 years with an area of 14.8 km2 annual flood hydrograph the total is 26.79 m3/sec on the hours at the 4th time. Return period flood discharge 5 years with an area of 14.8 km2 annual flood hydrograph the total is 73,44 m3/sec. While 25 annual return period total flood hydrograph is 146.50 m3/sec. With flood analysis can reduce and minimize the risk of losses and land can be mapped if in the area there is flooding.

Site specific probabilistic seismic hazard analysis at Dubai Creek on the west coast of UAE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shama, Ayman A.

2011-03-01

A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) was conducted to establish the hazard spectra for a site located at Dubai Creek on the west coast of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The PSHA considered all the seismogenic sources that affect the site, including plate boundaries such as the Makran subduction zone, the Zagros fold-thrust region and the transition fault system between them; and local crustal faults in UAE. PSHA indicated that local faults dominate the hazard. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) for the 475-year return period spectrum is 0.17 g and 0.33 g for the 2,475-year return period spectrum. The hazard spectra are then employed to establish rock ground motions using the spectral matching technique.

Spaceflight-induced Bone Loss: Is there a Risk for Accelerated Osteoporosis after Return?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sibonga, Jean

2008-01-01

The evidence-to to-date suggests that the rapid rate of site-specific bone loss in space, due to the unbalanced stimulation of bone resorption, may predispose crew members to irreversible changes in bone structure and microarchitecture. No analyses conducted in the postflight period to assess microarchitectural changes. There is no complete analysis of skeletal recovery in the postflight period to evaluate the structural changes that accompany increases in DXA aBMD. Postflight analyses based upon QCT scans performed on limited crew members indicate reductions in hip bone strength and incomplete recovery at 1 year. No recovery of trabecular vBMD after 1 year return (HRP IWG). Time course of bone loss in space unknown.

Finding hidden periodic signals in time series - an application to stock prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Shea, Michael

2014-03-01

Data in the form of time series appear in many areas of science. In cases where the periodicity is apparent and the only other contribution to the time series is stochastic in origin, the data can be `folded' to improve signal to noise and this has been done for light curves of variable stars with the folding resulting in a cleaner light curve signal. Stock index prices versus time are classic examples of time series. Repeating patterns have been claimed by many workers and include unusually large returns on small-cap stocks during the month of January, and small returns on the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJIA) in the months June through September compared to the rest of the year. Such observations imply that these prices have a periodic component. We investigate this for the DJIA. If such a component exists it is hidden in a large non-periodic variation and a large stochastic variation. We show how to extract this periodic component and for the first time reveal its yearly (averaged) shape. This periodic component leads directly to the `Sell in May and buy at Halloween' adage. We also drill down and show that this yearly variation emerges from approximately half of the underlying stocks making up the DJIA index.

26 CFR 1.6072-1 - Time for filing returns of individuals, estates, and trusts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... following the close of the 12-month period which began with the first day of the decedent's taxable year... trusts, and foreign trusts having an office or place of business in the United States (including unrelated business tax returns of such trusts referred to in section 511(b)(2)) shall be filed on or before...

Levee reliability analyses for various flood return periods - a case study in Southern Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, W.-C.; Yu, H.-W.; Weng, M.-C.

2015-01-01

In recent years, heavy rainfall conditions have caused damages around the world. To prevent damages by floods, levees have often been constructed in prone-to-inundation areas. This study performed reliability analyses for the Chiuliao 1st Levee located in southern Taiwan. The failure-related parameters were the water level, the scouring depth, and the in-situ friction angle. Three major failure mechanisms were considered, including the slope sliding failure of the levee, and the sliding and overturning failures of the retaining wall. When the variabilities of the in-situ friction angle and the scouring depth are considered for various flood return periods, the variations of the factor of safety (FS) for the different failure mechanisms show that the retaining wall sliding and overturning failures are more sensitive to the variability of the friction angle. When the flood return period is greater than 2 years, the levee can undergo slope sliding failure for all values of the water level difference. The results for levee stability analysis considering the variability of different parameters could assist engineers in designing the levee cross sections, especially with potential failure mechanisms in mind.

New Insights into the Estimation of Extreme Geomagnetic Storm Occurrences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruffenach, Alexis; Winter, Hugo; Lavraud, Benoit; Bernardara, Pietro

2017-04-01

Space weather events such as intense geomagnetic storms are major disturbances of the near-Earth environment that may lead to serious impacts on our modern society. As such, it is of great importance to estimate their probability, and in particular that of extreme events. One approach largely used in statistical sciences for extreme events probability estimates is Extreme Value Analysis (EVA). Using this rigorous statistical framework, estimations of the occurrence of extreme geomagnetic storms are performed here based on the most relevant global parameters related to geomagnetic storms, such as ground parameters (e.g. geomagnetic Dst and aa indexes), and space parameters related to the characteristics of Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) (velocity, southward magnetic field component, electric field). Using our fitted model, we estimate the annual probability of a Carrington-type event (Dst = -850nT) to be on the order of 10-3, with a lower limit of the uncertainties on the return period of ˜500 years. Our estimate is significantly higher than that of most past studies, which typically had a return period of a few 100 years at maximum. Thus precautions are required when extrapolating intense values. Currently, the complexity of the processes and the length of available data inevitably leads to significant uncertainties in return period estimates for the occurrence of extreme geomagnetic storms. However, our application of extreme value models for extrapolating into the tail of the distribution provides a mathematically justified framework for the estimation of extreme return periods, thereby enabling the determination of more accurate estimates and reduced associated uncertainties.

High-impact sport after hip resurfacing: The Ironman triathlon.

PubMed

Girard, J; Lons, A; Pommepuy, T; Isida, R; Benad, K; Putman, S

2017-09-01

Returning to high-impact sport is an increasingly frequent functional demand following hip replacement. The literature, however, is sparse on the subject and nonexistent regarding triathlon. We therefore conducted a retrospective study of hip resurfacing in triathlon players, to determine: (1) whether it is possible to return to this kind of sport; (2) if so, whether it is possible to return to the same level; and (3) how a resurfaced hip behaves under these conditions. Hip resurfacing allows return to competition level in long-distance triathlon. A single-center single-operator retrospective study included patients undergoing hip resurfacing with the Conserve Plus implant inserted through a posterolateral approach, who had ceased long-distance triathlon practice due to osteoarthritis of the hip. Fifty-one of the 1688 patients undergoing resurfacing during the inclusion period were long-distance triathlon players. The series comprised 48 patients: 51 implants; 43 male, 5 female; mean age, 44.8 years (range, 28.2-58.9 years). At a mean 4.7 years' follow-up (range, 2.2-7.6 years), all clinical scores showed significant improvement; Merle d'Aubigné and Harris scores rose respectively from 12.3 (5-16) and 42 (37-56) preoperatively to 17.5 (13-18) and 93.2 (73-100) (P<0.001). There were no cases of dislocation or implant revision. Forty-five patients returned to sport (94%). Rates of return to swimming, cycling and running were respectively 38/48 (79%), 41/48 (85%) and 33/48 (69%). Preoperatively, all patients had taken part in at least 1 competition: 29 with distance=70.3km and 19 with distance=140.6km. At follow-up, 28 patients had taken part in an Ironman competition: 21 with distance=70.3km and 7 with distance=140.6km. Mean competition performance did not differ between pre and postoperative periods. Return-to-sport rates were good following hip resurfacing. Non-impact sports (swimming, cycling) predominated postoperatively, whereas the rate of impact sport (running) diminished. Return to competition-level sport (extreme triathlon) was possible for 28/48 patients (58%). Implant survival seemed unaffected by this high-impact sports activity at a mean 4.7 years' follow-up. IV, retrospective, non-controlled. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Long-Term Geomagnetically Induced Current Observations From New Zealand: Peak Current Estimates for Extreme Geomagnetic Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodger, Craig J.; Mac Manus, Daniel H.; Dalzell, Michael; Thomson, Alan W. P.; Clarke, Ellen; Petersen, Tanja; Clilverd, Mark A.; Divett, Tim

2017-11-01

Geomagnetically induced current (GIC) observations made in New Zealand over 14 years show induction effects associated with a rapidly varying horizontal magnetic field (dBH/dt) during geomagnetic storms. This study analyzes the GIC observations in order to estimate the impact of extreme storms as a hazard to the power system in New Zealand. Analysis is undertaken of GIC in transformer number six in Islington, Christchurch (ISL M6), which had the highest observed currents during the 6 November 2001 storm. Using previously published values of 3,000 nT/min as a representation of an extreme storm with 100 year return period, induced currents of 455 A were estimated for Islington (with the 95% confidence interval range being 155-605 A). For 200 year return periods using 5,000 nT/min, current estimates reach 755 A (confidence interval range 155-910 A). GIC measurements from the much shorter data set collected at transformer number 4 in Halfway Bush, Dunedin, (HWB T4), found induced currents to be consistently a factor of 3 higher than at Islington, suggesting equivalent extreme storm effects of 460-1,815 A (100 year return) and 460-2,720 A (200 year return). An estimate was undertaken of likely failure levels for single-phase transformers, such as HWB T4 when it failed during the 6 November 2001 geomagnetic storm, identifying that induced currents of 100 A can put such transformer types at risk of damage. Detailed modeling of the New Zealand power system is therefore required to put this regional analysis into a global context.

The return period analysis of natural disasters with statistical modeling of bivariate joint probability distribution.

PubMed

Li, Ning; Liu, Xueqin; Xie, Wei; Wu, Jidong; Zhang, Peng

2013-01-01

New features of natural disasters have been observed over the last several years. The factors that influence the disasters' formation mechanisms, regularity of occurrence and main characteristics have been revealed to be more complicated and diverse in nature than previously thought. As the uncertainty involved increases, the variables need to be examined further. This article discusses the importance and the shortage of multivariate analysis of natural disasters and presents a method to estimate the joint probability of the return periods and perform a risk analysis. Severe dust storms from 1990 to 2008 in Inner Mongolia were used as a case study to test this new methodology, as they are normal and recurring climatic phenomena on Earth. Based on the 79 investigated events and according to the dust storm definition with bivariate, the joint probability distribution of severe dust storms was established using the observed data of maximum wind speed and duration. The joint return periods of severe dust storms were calculated, and the relevant risk was analyzed according to the joint probability. The copula function is able to simulate severe dust storm disasters accurately. The joint return periods generated are closer to those observed in reality than the univariate return periods and thus have more value in severe dust storm disaster mitigation, strategy making, program design, and improvement of risk management. This research may prove useful in risk-based decision making. The exploration of multivariate analysis methods can also lay the foundation for further applications in natural disaster risk analysis. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Should return to sport be delayed until two years after anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction? Biological and functional considerations

PubMed Central

Nagelli, Christopher V.; Hewett, Timothy E.

2016-01-01

Anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) tears are common knee injuries sustained by athletes during sports participation. A devastating complication of returning to sport following ACL reconstruction (ACLR) is a second ACL injury. Strong evidence now indicates that younger, more active athletes are at particularly high risk for a second ACL injury and this risk is greatest within the first two years following ACLR. Nearly one-third of the younger cohort that resumes sports participation will sustain a second ACL injury within the first two years after ACLR. The evidence indicates that the risk of second injury may abate over this time period. The incidence rate of second injuries in the first year after ACLR is significantly greater than the rate in the second year. The lower relative risk in the second year may be related to athletes achieving baseline joint health and function well after the current expected timeline (6 to 12 months) to be released to unrestricted activity. This highlights a considerable debate in the return to sport decision process as to whether an athlete should wait until two years after ACLR to return to unrestricted, sports activity. In this review, we present evidence in the literature that athletes achieve baseline joint health and function approximately two years after ACLR. We postulate that delay in returning to sports for nearly two years will significantly reduce the incidence of second ACL injuries. PMID:27402457

Simulating extreme low-discharge events for the Rhine using a stochastic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macian-Sorribes, Hector; Mens, Marjolein; Schasfoort, Femke; Diermanse, Ferdinand; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

2017-04-01

The specific features of hydrological droughts make them more difficult to be analysed than other water-related phenomena: longer time scales (months to several years) so less historical events are available, and the drought severity and associate damage depends on a combination of variables with no clear prevalence (e.g., total water deficit, maximum deficit and duration). As part of drought risk analysis, which aims to provide insight into the variability of hydrological conditions and associated socio-economic impacts, long synthetic time series should therefore be developed. In this contribution, we increase the length of the available inflow time series using stochastic autoregressive modelling. This enhancement could improve the characterization of the extreme range and can define extreme droughts with similar periods of return but different patterns that can lead to distinctly different damages. The methodology consists of: 1) fitting an autoregressive model (AR, ARMA…) to the available records; 2) generating extended time series (thousands of years); 3) performing a frequency analysis with different characteristic variables (total, deficit, maximum deficit and so on); and 4) selecting extreme drought events associated with different characteristic variables and return periods. The methodology was applied to the Rhine river discharge at location Lobith, where the Rhine enters The Netherlands. A monthly ARMA(1,1) autoregressive model with seasonally varying parameters was fitted and successfully validated to the historical records available since year 1901. The maximum monthly deficit with respect to a threshold value of 1800 m3/s and the average discharge for a given time span in m3/s were chosen as indicators to identify drought periods. A synthetic series of 10,000 years of discharges was generated using the validated ARMA model. Two time spans were considered in the analysis: the whole calendar year and the half-year period between April and September (the summer half year, where water demands are highest). Frequency analysis was performed for both indicators and time spans for the generated time series and the historical records. The comparison between observed and generated series showed that the ARMA model provides a good reproduction of the maximum deficits and total discharges, especially for the summer half-year period. The resulting synthetic series are therefore considered credible. These synthetic series, with its wealth of information, can then be used as inputs for the damage assessment models, together with information on precipitation deficits, in order to estimate the risk that lower inflows can have on the urban, the agricultural, the shipping sector and so on. This will help in associating economic losses and periods of return, as well as for estimating how droughts with similar periods of return but different patterns can lead to different damages. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This study has been supported by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the IMPREX project (grant agreement no: 641.811), and by the Climate-KIC Pioneers into Practice Program supported by the European Union's EIT.

Internal variability in European summer temperatures at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suarez-Gutierrez, Laura; Li, Chao; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Marotzke, Jochem

2018-06-01

We use the 100-member Grand Ensemble with the climate model MPI-ESM to evaluate the controllability of mean and extreme European summer temperatures with the global mean temperature targets in the Paris Agreement. We find that European summer temperatures at 2 °C of global warming are on average 1 °C higher than at 1.5 °C of global warming with respect to pre-industrial levels. In a 2 °C warmer world, one out of every two European summer months would be warmer than ever observed in our current climate. Daily maximum temperature anomalies for extreme events with return periods of up to 500 years reach return levels of 7 °C at 2 °C of global warming and 5.5 °C at 1.5 °C of global warming. The largest differences in return levels for shorter return periods of 20 years are over southern Europe, where we find the highest mean temperature increase. In contrast, for events with return periods of over 100 years these differences are largest over central Europe, where we find the largest changes in temperature variability. However, due to the large effect of internal variability, only four out of every ten summer months in a 2 °C warmer world present mean temperatures that could be distinguishable from those in a 1.5 °C world. The distinguishability between the two climates is largest over southern Europe, while decreasing to around 10% distinguishable months over eastern Europe. Furthermore, we find that 10% of the most extreme and severe summer maximum temperatures in a 2 °C world could be avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 °C.

LADOTD 24-Hour rainfall frequency maps and I-D-F curves : summary report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1991-08-01

Maximum annual 24-hour maps and Intensity-Duration-Frequency (I-D-F) curves for return periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years were developed using hourly precipitation data. Data from 92 rain gauges for the period of 1948 to 1987 were compiled and...

Return to Work among Employees with Long-Term Sickness Absence in Eldercare: A Prospective Analysis of Register-Based Outcomes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clausen, Thomas; Friis Andersen, Malenea; Bang Christensen, Karl; Lund, Thomas

2011-01-01

This study investigates whether psychosocial work characteristics and work-related psychological states predict return to work (RTW) after long-term sickness absence among eldercare staff. We followed 9947 employees in a national register on payment of sickness-absence compensation for 1 year and found that 598 employees had absence periods of 8…

Determinants of the cost of capital for privately financed hospital projects in the UK.

PubMed

Colla, Paolo; Hellowell, Mark; Vecchi, Veronica; Gatti, Stefano

2015-11-01

Many governments make use of private finance contracts to deliver healthcare infrastructure. Previous work has shown that the rate of return to investors in these markets often exceeds the efficient level. Our focus is on the factors that influence that return. We examine the effect of macroeconomic, project- and firm-level variables using a detailed sample of 84 UK private finance initiative (PFI) contracts signed between 1997 and 2010. Of the above variables, macroeconomic conditions and lead sponsor size are related to the investor return. However, our results show a remarkable degree of stability in the return to investors over the 14-year period. We find evidence of a 'prevailing norm' that is robust to project- and firm-level variation. The sustainability of excess returns over a long period is indicative of a concentrated market structure. We argue that policymakers should consider new mechanisms for increasing competition in the equity market, while ensuring that authorities have the specialist resources required to negotiate efficient contract prices. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial variability of extreme rainfall at radar subpixel scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peleg, Nadav; Marra, Francesco; Fatichi, Simone; Paschalis, Athanasios; Molnar, Peter; Burlando, Paolo

2018-01-01

Extreme rainfall is quantified in engineering practice using Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves (IDF) that are traditionally derived from rain-gauges and more recently also from remote sensing instruments, such as weather radars. These instruments measure rainfall at different spatial scales: rain-gauge samples rainfall at the point scale while weather radar averages precipitation on a relatively large area, generally around 1 km2. As such, a radar derived IDF curve is representative of the mean areal rainfall over a given radar pixel and neglects the within-pixel rainfall variability. In this study, we quantify subpixel variability of extreme rainfall by using a novel space-time rainfall generator (STREAP model) that downscales in space the rainfall within a given radar pixel. The study was conducted using a unique radar data record (23 years) and a very dense rain-gauge network in the Eastern Mediterranean area (northern Israel). Radar-IDF curves, together with an ensemble of point-based IDF curves representing the radar subpixel extreme rainfall variability, were developed fitting Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions to annual rainfall maxima. It was found that the mean areal extreme rainfall derived from the radar underestimate most of the extreme values computed for point locations within the radar pixel (on average, ∼70%). The subpixel variability of rainfall extreme was found to increase with longer return periods and shorter durations (e.g. from a maximum variability of 10% for a return period of 2 years and a duration of 4 h to 30% for 50 years return period and 20 min duration). For the longer return periods, a considerable enhancement of extreme rainfall variability was found when stochastic (natural) climate variability was taken into account. Bounding the range of the subpixel extreme rainfall derived from radar-IDF can be of major importance for different applications that require very local estimates of rainfall extremes.

Work Status and Return to the Workforce after Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting and/or Heart Valve Surgery: A One-Year-Follow Up Study.

PubMed

Fonager, Kirsten; Lundbye-Christensen, Søren; Andreasen, Jan Jesper; Futtrup, Mikkel; Christensen, Anette Luther; Ahmad, Khalil; Nørgaard, Martin Agge

2014-01-01

Background. Several characteristics appear to be important for estimating the likelihood of reentering the workforce after surgery. The aim of the present study was to describe work status in a two-year time period around the time of cardiac surgery and estimate the probability of returning to the workforce. Methods. We included 681 patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting and/or heart valve procedures from 2003 to 2007 in the North Denmark Region. We linked hospital data to data in the DREAM database which holds information of everyone receiving social benefits. Results. At the time of surgery 17.3% were allocated disability pension and 2.3% were allocated a permanent part-time benefit. Being unemployed one year before surgery reduced the likelihood of return to the workforce (RR = 0.74 (0.60-0.92)) whereas unemployment at the time of surgery had no impact on return to the workforce (RR = 0.96 (0.78-1.18)). Sickness absence before surgery reduced the likelihood of return to the workforce. Conclusion. This study found the work status before surgery to be associated with the likelihood of return to the workforce within one year after surgery. Before surgery one-fifth of the population either was allocated disability pension or received a permanent part-time benefit.

Work Status and Return to the Workforce after Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting and/or Heart Valve Surgery: A One-Year-Follow Up Study

PubMed Central

Fonager, Kirsten; Lundbye-Christensen, Søren; Andreasen, Jan Jesper; Futtrup, Mikkel; Christensen, Anette Luther; Ahmad, Khalil; Nørgaard, Martin Agge

2014-01-01

Background. Several characteristics appear to be important for estimating the likelihood of reentering the workforce after surgery. The aim of the present study was to describe work status in a two-year time period around the time of cardiac surgery and estimate the probability of returning to the workforce. Methods. We included 681 patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting and/or heart valve procedures from 2003 to 2007 in the North Denmark Region. We linked hospital data to data in the DREAM database which holds information of everyone receiving social benefits. Results. At the time of surgery 17.3% were allocated disability pension and 2.3% were allocated a permanent part-time benefit. Being unemployed one year before surgery reduced the likelihood of return to the workforce (RR = 0.74 (0.60–0.92)) whereas unemployment at the time of surgery had no impact on return to the workforce (RR = 0.96 (0.78–1.18)). Sickness absence before surgery reduced the likelihood of return to the workforce. Conclusion. This study found the work status before surgery to be associated with the likelihood of return to the workforce within one year after surgery. Before surgery one-fifth of the population either was allocated disability pension or received a permanent part-time benefit. PMID:25024848

Physicians' assessment of pediatric returns to the Emergency Department.

PubMed

Easter, Joshua S; Bachur, Richard

2013-03-01

Return visits to the Emergency Department (ED) requiring admission are frequently reviewed for the purpose of quality improvement. Treating physicians typically perform this review, but it is unclear if they accurately identify the reasons for the returns. To assess the characteristics of pediatric return visits to the ED, and the ability of treating physicians to identify the root causes for these return visits. This retrospective cohort study reviewed all returns within 96 h of an initial visit over a 2-year period at a tertiary care pediatric ED. Baseline characteristics were determined from review of patients' charts. The treating physicians, the primary author, and independent reviewers identified the root cause for the returns. There were 97,374 patients that presented to the ED during the study, and 1091 (1.1%) of these children returned to the ED and were admitted. Returns were most common among children aged<5 years, arriving between 3:00 p.m. and 11:00 p .m. via private transportation, with infectious diseases. The physician involved in the care of the patient attributed 3.1% of returns to potential deficiencies in medical management, whereas the independent reviewers attributed 13% to potential deficiencies. Both returns and the subset of returns due to potential deficiencies in management are more common than previously estimated, rendering review of returns a valuable quality improvement tool. However, EDs should not rely exclusively on the treating physicians to identify the reason for returns, as they seem to underestimate the frequency of returns due to potential deficiencies in medical management. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Wind and wave extremes over the world oceans from very large ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breivik, Øyvind; Aarnes, Ole Johan; Abdalla, Saleh; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond; Janssen, Peter A. E. M.

2014-07-01

Global return values of marine wind speed and significant wave height are estimated from very large aggregates of archived ensemble forecasts at +240 h lead time. Long lead time ensures that the forecasts represent independent draws from the model climate. Compared with ERA-Interim, a reanalysis, the ensemble yields higher return estimates for both wind speed and significant wave height. Confidence intervals are much tighter due to the large size of the data set. The period (9 years) is short enough to be considered stationary even with climate change. Furthermore, the ensemble is large enough for nonparametric 100 year return estimates to be made from order statistics. These direct return estimates compare well with extreme value estimates outside areas with tropical cyclones. Like any method employing modeled fields, it is sensitive to tail biases in the numerical model, but we find that the biases are moderate outside areas with tropical cyclones.

Angler harvest, hatchery return, and tributary stray rates of recycled adult summer steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss in the Cowlitz River, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kock, Tobias J.; Perry, Russell W.; Gleizes, Chris; Dammers, Wolf; Liedtke, Theresa L.

2016-01-01

Hatchery ‘recycling’ programs have been used to increase angling opportunities by re-releasing fish into a river after they returned to a hatchery or fish trap. Recycling is intended to increase opportunities for fishermen, but this strategy could affect wild fish populations if some recycled fish remain in the river and interact with wild fish populations. To quantify hatchery return and angler harvest rates of recycled steelhead, we conducted a 2-year study on the Cowlitz River, Washington. A total of 1051 steelhead were recycled, including 218 fish that were radio-tagged. Fates of recycled steelhead were similar between years: 48.4% returned to the hatchery, 19.2% were reported captured by anglers, and 32.4% remained in the river. A multistate model quantified the effects of covariates on hatchery return and angler harvest rates, which were positively affected by river discharge and negatively affected by time since release. However, hatchery return rates increased and angler harvest rates decreased during periods of increasing discharge. A total of 21.1% (46 fish) of the radio-tagged steelhead failed to return to the hatchery or be reported by anglers, but nearly half of those fish (20 fish) appeared to be harvested and not reported. The remaining tagged fish (11.9% of the radio-tagged population) were monitored into the spawning period, but only five fish (2.3% of the radio-tagged population) entered tributaries where wild steelhead spawning occurs. Future research focused on straying behaviour, and spawning success of recycled steelhead may further advance the understanding of the effects of recycling as a management strategy.

Return to sexual activity and modern family planning use in the extended postpartum period: an analysis of findings from seventeen countries.

PubMed

Borda, Maria R; Winfrey, William; McKaig, Catharine

2010-12-01

Unintended pregnancies can lead to poor maternal and child health outcomes. Family planning use during the first year postpartum has the potential to significantly reduce at least some of these unintended pregnancies. This paper examines the relationship of menses return, breastfeeding status, and postpartum duration on return to sexual activity and use of modern family planning among postpartum women. This paper presents results from a secondary data analysis of Demographic and Health Surveys from 17 countries. For postpartum women, the return of menses, breastfeeding status, and postpartum duration are significantly associated with return to sexual activity in at least 10 out of the 17 countries but not consistently associated with family planning use. Only menses return had a significant association with use of modern family planning in the majority of countries. These findings point to the importance of education about pregnancy risk prior to menses return.

Integrated drought risk assessment of multi-hazard-affected bodies based on copulas in the Taoerhe Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Rui; Zhang, Jiquan; Guo, Enliang; Alu, Si; Li, Danjun; Ha, Si; Dong, Zhenhua

2018-02-01

Along with global warming, drought disasters are occurring more frequently and are seriously affecting normal life and food security in China. Drought risk assessments are necessary to provide support for local governments. This study aimed to establish an integrated drought risk model based on the relation curve of drought joint probabilities and drought losses of multi-hazard-affected bodies. First, drought characteristics, including duration and severity, were classified using the 1953-2010 precipitation anomaly in the Taoerhe Basin based on run theory, and their marginal distributions were identified by exponential and Gamma distributions, respectively. Then, drought duration and severity were related to construct a joint probability distribution based on the copula function. We used the EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) model to simulate maize yield and historical data to calculate the loss rates of agriculture, industry, and animal husbandry in the study area. Next, we constructed vulnerability curves. Finally, the spatial distributions of drought risk for 10-, 20-, and 50-year return periods were expressed using inverse distance weighting. Our results indicate that the spatial distributions of the three return periods are consistent. The highest drought risk is in Ulanhot, and the duration and severity there were both highest. This means that higher drought risk corresponds to longer drought duration and larger drought severity, thus providing useful information for drought and water resource management. For 10-, 20-, and 50-year return periods, the drought risk values ranged from 0.41 to 0.53, 0.45 to 0.59, and 0.50 to 0.67, respectively. Therefore, when the return period increases, the drought risk increases.

Characteristics of the April 2007 Flood at 10 Streamflow-Gaging Stations in Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zarriello, Phillip J.; Carlson, Carl S.

2009-01-01

A large 'nor'easter' storm on April 15-18, 2007, brought heavy rains to the southern New England region that, coupled with normal seasonal high flows and associated wet soil-moisture conditions, caused extensive flooding in many parts of Massachusetts and neighboring states. To characterize the magnitude of the April 2007 flood, a peak-flow frequency analysis was undertaken at 10 selected streamflow-gaging stations in Massachusetts to determine the magnitude of flood flows at 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year return intervals. The magnitude of flood flows at various return intervals were determined from the logarithms of the annual peaks fit to a Pearson Type III probability distribution. Analysis included augmenting the station record with longer-term records from one or more nearby stations to provide a common period of comparison that includes notable floods in 1936, 1938, and 1955. The April 2007 peak flow was among the highest recorded or estimated since 1936, often ranking between the 3d and 5th highest peak for that period. In general, the peak-flow frequency analysis indicates the April 2007 peak flow has an estimated return interval between 25 and 50 years; at stations in the northeastern and central areas of the state, the storm was less severe resulting in flows with return intervals of about 5 and 10 years, respectively. At Merrimack River at Lowell, the April 2007 peak flow approached a 100-year return interval that was computed from post-flood control records and the 1936 and 1938 peak flows adjusted for flood control. In general, the magnitude of flood flow for a given return interval computed from the streamflow-gaging station period-of-record was greater than those used to calculate flood profiles in various community flood-insurance studies. In addition, the magnitude of the updated flood flow and current (2008) stage-discharge relation at a given streamflow-gaging station often produced a flood stage that was considerably different than the flood stage indicated in the flood-insurance study flood profile at that station. Equations for estimating the flow magnitudes for 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year floods were developed from the relation of the magnitude of flood flows to drainage area calculated from the six streamflow-gaging stations with the longest unaltered record. These equations produced a more conservative estimate of flood flows (higher discharges) than the existing regional equations for estimating flood flows at ungaged rivers in Massachusetts. Large differences in the magnitude of flood flows for various return intervals determined in this study compared to results from existing regional equations and flood insurance studies indicate a need for updating regional analyses and equations for estimating the expected magnitude of flood flows in Massachusetts.

Statistical assessment of changes in extreme maximum temperatures over Saudi Arabia, 1985-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raggad, Bechir

2018-05-01

In this study, two statistical approaches were adopted in the analysis of observed maximum temperature data collected from fifteen stations over Saudi Arabia during the period 1985-2014. In the first step, the behavior of extreme temperatures was analyzed and their changes were quantified with respect to the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring indices. The results showed a general warming trend over most stations, in maximum temperature-related indices, during the period of analysis. In the second step, stationary and non-stationary extreme-value analyses were conducted for the temperature data. The results revealed that the non-stationary model with increasing linear trend in its location parameter outperforms the other models for two-thirds of the stations. Additionally, the 10-, 50-, and 100-year return levels were found to change with time considerably and that the maximum temperature could start to reappear in the different T-year return period for most stations. This analysis shows the importance of taking account the change over time in the estimation of return levels and therefore justifies the use of the non-stationary generalized extreme value distribution model to describe most of the data. Furthermore, these last findings are in line with the result of significant warming trends found in climate indices analyses.

Slope mass movements on rocky sea-cliffs: A power-law distributed natural hazard on the Barlavento Coast, Algarve, Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teixeira, Sebastião Braz

2006-06-01

The coast of the Central Algarve, Portugal, is dominated by sea-cliffs, cut on Miocene calcarenites; here, the main coastal geologic hazards result from the conflict between human occupation and sea-cliff recession. The evolution of this rocky coast occurs through an intermittent and discontinuous series of slope mass movements, along a 46 km cliff front. For the last 30 years, the increase of tourism occupation has amplified the risks to both people and buildings. In the last decade we have seen several accidents caused by cliff failure, which killed or wounded people and destroyed several buildings. The definition of buffer zones limited by hazard lines parallel to the cliff edge, where land use is restricted, is a widely used and effective preventive measure for mitigating risk. Rocky coasts typically show a slow cliff evolution. The process of gathering statistically significant field inventories of mass movements is, thus, very long. Although mass movement catalogues provide fundamental information on sea cliff evolution patterns and are an outstanding tool in hazard assessment, published data sets are still rare. In this work, we use two inventories of mass movement width, recorded on sea cliffs cut on Miocene calcarenites: a nine year long continuous field inventory (1995-2004) with 140 recorded events, and a 44 year long catalogue based on comparative analysis of aerial photographs (1947-1991), that includes 177 events. The cumulative frequency-width distributions of both data sets fit, above a critical width value corresponding to the threshold of full completeness of the inventories, to power-law distributions. The knowledge of the limits of the catalogues enabled the construction of a 53 year long record inventory over the range of mean width ⩾3 m ( n=167 events) and maximum width ⩾4 m ( n=155 events). The data assembled corresponds to a partial series and was converted to a return period-size distribution. Both return period-width distributions (mean width and maximum width) are also power-law distributions. Equations of return period-width distributions give the width of hazard lines corresponding to the width of mass movement, in which return period equals the period that hazard line is referred to.

Life cycle assessment of stormwater management in the context of climate change adaptation.

PubMed

Brudler, Sarah; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Rygaard, Martin

2016-12-01

Expected increases in pluvial flooding, due to climatic changes, require large investments in the retrofitting of cities to keep damage at an acceptable level. Many cities have investigated the possibility of implementing stormwater management (SWM) systems which are multi-functional and consist of different elements interacting to achieve desired safety levels. Typically, an economic assessment is carried out in the planning phase, while environmental sustainability is given little or no attention. In this paper, life cycle assessment is used to quantify environmental impacts of climate change adaptation strategies. The approach is tested using a climate change adaptation strategy for a catchment in Copenhagen, Denmark. A stormwater management system, using green infrastructure and local retention measures in combination with planned routing of stormwater on the surfaces to manage runoff, is compared to a traditional, sub-surface approach. Flood safety levels based on the Three Points Approach are defined as the functional unit to ensure comparability between systems. The adaptation plan has significantly lower impacts (3-18 person equivalents/year) than the traditional alternative (14-103 person equivalents/year) in all analysed impact categories. The main impacts are caused by managing rain events with return periods between 0.2 and 10 years. The impacts of handling smaller events with a return period of up to 0.2 years and extreme events with a return period of up to 100 years are lower in both alternatives. The uncertainty analysis shows the advantages of conducting an environmental assessment in the early stages of the planning process, when the design can still be optimised, but it also highlights the importance of detailed and site-specific data. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of coastal vulnerability: comparison of two different methodologies adopted by the Emilia-Romagna Region (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armaroli, Clara; Perini, Luisa; Calabrese, Lorenzo; Ciavola, Paolo; Salerno, Giovanni

2014-05-01

In the last years a large number of catastrophic events have occurred along worldwide coastlines (e.g.: 2012 Super-storm Sandy, US East Coast). European countries have to face similar calamities such as those caused by the recent Xaver cyclone (December 2013). The Emilia-Romagna coastline, Italy, along the North Adriatic Sea, is affected by storms that cause extensive damages. The coast has low elevations, is highly urbanised and there is a massive presence of defence structures. The area is micro-tidal (neap/spring tide ranges = 0.4/0.8 m), low energetic (65% Hs<=1 m) but subjected to significant surge levels (1 year return period = 0.85 m). Therefore an evaluation of the vulnerability of the coastal area is an urgent matter. The Regional Geological Survey has completed an analysis of three scenarios of damage produced by the concurrent happening of a marine storm and high surge levels (1-in-1, 10, 100 year return period) and high spring tidal levels (+0.45 m MSL). Wave heights were used to calculate run-up values along the whole coastline (on 187 equally spaced profiles extracted from LIDAR datasets). The result is a list of ten typology of different levels of damage obtained through the comparison between the computed water levels, for each scenario and along each profile, and the topography/human occupation of the coast. The assessment reveals that 60% of the coastline is vulnerable to the 1-in-1 year return period scenario, thus even modal meteorological conditions can generate significant losses. A comparison was made between the produced typologies and the actual damage caused by a recent storm and the correspondence is almost identical, underlining that the method is reliable. Because the above-mentioned methodology is only punctual, the Geological Survey has started a different evaluation of the areal extension of inundations. The methodology considers the concurrent happening of the same return period storms but in terms of wave set-up only (not including run-up) plus surge levels (extracted from the literature) plus high spring tide level. To find the extension of inundated areas and the intrusion distance of marine water inland, the Cost-Distance tool of ArcGIS was used. The tool is able to evaluate the contribution of each "cell", in which the coast has been divided (from LIDAR data), to avoid or favour the water movement inland, considering its location with respect to the shoreline, its elevation above MSL and the elevation/location of nearby cells. It does not account for water infiltration and terrain roughness, therefore, to avoid getting unrealistic results, an attenuation artifice was introduced: the maximum water level surface, calculated for each return period, is projected inland following a sloping plane. The intrusion distance is determined by the intersection of the oblique water surface and the ground. This artifice, together with the Cost-Distance tool, produces consistent results if compared to observed inundations with similar return periods. A further implementation of coastal vulnerability assessment will be performed through numerical modelling and Bayesian approaches (RISC-KIT EU Project, www.risckit.eu, GA 603458).

Methods to determine transit losses for return flows of transmountain water in Fountain Creek between Colorado Springs and the Arkansas River, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kuhn, Gerhard

1988-01-01

Methods were developed by which transit losses could be determined for transmountain return flows in Fountain Creek between Colorado Springs, Colorado, and its confluence with the Arkansas River. The study reach is a complex hydrologic system wherein a substantially variable streamflow interacts with an alluvial aquifer. The study approach included: (1) calibration and verification of a streamflow-routing model that contained a bank-storage-discharge component; (2) use of the model to develop the methods by which transit losses could be calculated; and (3) design of an application method for calculating daily transit loss using the model results. Sources of transit losses that were studied are bank storage, channel storage, and evaporation. Magnitude of bank-storage loss primarily depends on duration of a recovery period during which water lost to bank storage is returned to the stream. Net loss to bank storage can vary from about 50% for a 0-day recovery period to about 2% for a 180-day recovery period. Virtually all water lost to bank storage could be returned to the stream with longer recovery periods. Channel-storage loss was determined to be about 10% of a release quantity. Because the loss on any given day is totally recovered in the form of gains from channel storage on the subsequent day, channel storage is a temporary transit loss. Evaporation loss generally is less than 5% of a given daily transmountain return-flow release, depending on month of year. Evaporation losses are permanently lost from the system. (USGS)

Project Lifespan-based Nonstationary Hydrologic Design Methods for Changing Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiong, L.

2017-12-01

Under changing environment, we must associate design floods with the design life period of projects to ensure the hydrologic design is really relevant to the operation of the hydrologic projects, because the design value for a given exceedance probability over the project life period would be significantly different from that over other time periods of the same length due to the nonstationarity of probability distributions. Several hydrologic design methods that take the design life period of projects into account have been proposed in recent years, i.e. the expected number of exceedances (ENE), design life level (DLL), equivalent reliability (ER), and average design life level (ADLL). Among the four methods to be compared, both the ENE and ER methods are return period-based methods, while DLL and ADLL are risk/reliability- based methods which estimate design values for given probability values of risk or reliability. However, the four methods can be unified together under a general framework through a relationship transforming the so-called representative reliability (RRE) into the return period, i.e. m=1/1(1-RRE), in which we compute the return period m using the representative reliability RRE.The results of nonstationary design quantiles and associated confidence intervals calculated by ENE, ER and ADLL were very similar, since ENE or ER was a special case or had a similar expression form with respect to ADLL. In particular, the design quantiles calculated by ENE and ADLL were the same when return period was equal to the length of the design life. In addition, DLL can yield similar design values if the relationship between DLL and ER/ADLL return periods is considered. Furthermore, ENE, ER and ADLL had good adaptability to either an increasing or decreasing situation, yielding not too large or too small design quantiles. This is important for applications of nonstationary hydrologic design methods in actual practice because of the concern of choosing the emerging nonstationary methods versus the traditional stationary methods. There is still a long way to go for the conceptual transition from stationarity to nonstationarity in hydrologic design.

Wildfires Dynamics in Siberian Larch Forests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ponomarev, Evgenii I.; Kharuk, Viacheslav I.; Ranson, Kenneth J.

2016-01-01

Wildfire number and burned area temporal dynamics within all of Siberia and along a south-north transect in central Siberia (45deg-73degN) were studied based on NOAA/AVHRR (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/ Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) and Terra/MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) data and field measurements for the period 1996-2015. In addition, fire return interval (FRI) along the south-north transect was analyzed. Both the number of forest fires and the size of the burned area increased during recent decades (p < 0.05). Significant correlations were found between forest fires, burned areas and air temperature (r = 0.5) and drought index (The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI) (r = 0.43). Within larch stands along the transect, wildfire frequency was strongly correlated with incoming solar radiation (r = 0.91). Fire danger period length decreased linearly from south to north along the transect. Fire return interval increased from 80 years at 62 N to 200 years at the Arctic Circle (6633' N), and to about 300 years near the northern limit of closed forest stands (about 71+ N). That increase was negatively correlated with incoming solar radiation (r = 0.95). Keywords: wildfires; drought index; larch stands; fire return interval; fire frequency; burned area; climate-induced trends in Siberian wildfires

Changes in mental disorder prevalence among conflict-affected populations: a prospective study in Sri Lanka (COMRAID-R).

PubMed

Siriwardhana, Chesmal; Adikari, Anushka; Pannala, Gayani; Roberts, Bayard; Siribaddana, Sisira; Abas, Melanie; Sumathipala, Athula; Stewart, Robert

2015-03-10

Longitudinal data are lacking on mental health trajectories following conflict resolution and return migration. COMRAID-R is a follow-up study of Muslims displaced by conflict from Northern Sri Lanka 20 years ago who are now beginning to return. Of 450 participants in displacement interviewed in 2011, 338 (75.1%) were re-interviewed a year later, and a supplementary random sample (n = 228) was drawn from return migrants with a comparable displacement history. Common mental disorder (CMD; Patient Health Questionnaire) and post-traumatic stress disorder (CIDI-subscale) were measured. A CMD prevalence of 18.8% (95%CI 15.2-22.5) at baseline had reduced to 8.6% (5.6-11.7) at follow-up in those remaining in displacement, and was 10.3% (6.5-14.1) in return migrants. PTSD prevalences were 2.4%, 0.3% and 1.6% respectively. We observed a substantial decrease in CMD prevalence in this population over a short period, which may reflect the prospect of return migration and associated optimism following conflict resolution.

Reduced Mortality Among Department of Veterans Affairs Patients With Schizophrenia or Bipolar Disorder Lost to Follow-up and Engaged in Active Outreach to Return for Care

PubMed Central

Kilbourne, Amy M.; Blow, Frederic C.; Pierce, John R.; Winkel, Bernard M.; Huycke, Edward; Langberg, Robert; Lyle, David; Phillips, Yancy; Visnic, Stephanie

2012-01-01

Objectives. We determined whether contacting Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) patients with schizophrenia or bipolar disorders (serious mental illness [SMI]) who had dropped out of care for prolonged periods resulted in reengagement with VA services and decreased mortality. Methods. We developed a list of patients with SMI who were last treated in fiscal years 2005 to 2006, and were lost to follow-up care for at least 1 year. VA medical centers used our list to contact patients and schedule appointments. Additional VA administrative data on patient utilization and mortality through May 2009 were analyzed. Results. About 72% (2375 of 3306) of the patients who VA staff attempted to contact returned for VA care. The mortality rate of returning patients was significantly lower than that for patients not returning (0.5% vs 3.9%; adjusted odds ratio = 5.8; P < .001), after demographic and clinical factors were controlled. Conclusions. The mortality rate for returning patients with SMI was almost 6 times less than for those who did not return for medical care. Proactive outreach might result in patients returning to care and should be implemented to reengage this vulnerable group. PMID:22390607

Sensitivity Analysis of Expected Wind Extremes over the Northwestern Sahara and High Atlas Region.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Bustamante, E.; González-Rouco, F. J.; Navarro, J.

2017-12-01

A robust statistical framework in the scientific literature allows for the estimation of probabilities of occurrence of severe wind speeds and wind gusts, but does not prevent however from large uncertainties associated with the particular numerical estimates. An analysis of such uncertainties is thus required. A large portion of this uncertainty arises from the fact that historical observations are inherently shorter that the timescales of interest for the analysis of return periods. Additional uncertainties stem from the different choices of probability distributions and other aspects related to methodological issues or physical processes involved. The present study is focused on historical observations over the Ouarzazate Valley (Morocco) and in a high-resolution regional simulation of the wind in the area of interest. The aim is to provide extreme wind speed and wind gust return values and confidence ranges based on a systematic sampling of the uncertainty space for return periods up to 120 years.

Impacts of representing sea-level rise uncertainty on future flood risks: An example from San Francisco Bay

PubMed Central

Oddo, Perry C.; Keller, Klaus

2017-01-01

Rising sea levels increase the probability of future coastal flooding. Many decision-makers use risk analyses to inform the design of sea-level rise (SLR) adaptation strategies. These analyses are often silent on potentially relevant uncertainties. For example, some previous risk analyses use the expected, best, or large quantile (i.e., 90%) estimate of future SLR. Here, we use a case study to quantify and illustrate how neglecting SLR uncertainties can bias risk projections. Specifically, we focus on the future 100-yr (1% annual exceedance probability) coastal flood height (storm surge including SLR) in the year 2100 in the San Francisco Bay area. We find that accounting for uncertainty in future SLR increases the return level (the height associated with a probability of occurrence) by half a meter from roughly 2.2 to 2.7 m, compared to using the mean sea-level projection. Accounting for this uncertainty also changes the shape of the relationship between the return period (the inverse probability that an event of interest will occur) and the return level. For instance, incorporating uncertainties shortens the return period associated with the 2.2 m return level from a 100-yr to roughly a 7-yr return period (∼15% probability). Additionally, accounting for this uncertainty doubles the area at risk of flooding (the area to be flooded under a certain height; e.g., the 100-yr flood height) in San Francisco. These results indicate that the method of accounting for future SLR can have considerable impacts on the design of flood risk management strategies. PMID:28350884

Impacts of representing sea-level rise uncertainty on future flood risks: An example from San Francisco Bay.

PubMed

Ruckert, Kelsey L; Oddo, Perry C; Keller, Klaus

2017-01-01

Rising sea levels increase the probability of future coastal flooding. Many decision-makers use risk analyses to inform the design of sea-level rise (SLR) adaptation strategies. These analyses are often silent on potentially relevant uncertainties. For example, some previous risk analyses use the expected, best, or large quantile (i.e., 90%) estimate of future SLR. Here, we use a case study to quantify and illustrate how neglecting SLR uncertainties can bias risk projections. Specifically, we focus on the future 100-yr (1% annual exceedance probability) coastal flood height (storm surge including SLR) in the year 2100 in the San Francisco Bay area. We find that accounting for uncertainty in future SLR increases the return level (the height associated with a probability of occurrence) by half a meter from roughly 2.2 to 2.7 m, compared to using the mean sea-level projection. Accounting for this uncertainty also changes the shape of the relationship between the return period (the inverse probability that an event of interest will occur) and the return level. For instance, incorporating uncertainties shortens the return period associated with the 2.2 m return level from a 100-yr to roughly a 7-yr return period (∼15% probability). Additionally, accounting for this uncertainty doubles the area at risk of flooding (the area to be flooded under a certain height; e.g., the 100-yr flood height) in San Francisco. These results indicate that the method of accounting for future SLR can have considerable impacts on the design of flood risk management strategies.

Geophysical, archaeological and historical evidence support a solar-output model for climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, C.A.; Hsu, K.J.

2000-01-01

Although the processes of climate change are not completely understood, an important causal candidate is variation in total solar output. Reported cycles in various climate-proxy data show a tendency to emulate a fundamental harmonic sequence of a basic solar-cycle length (11 years) multiplied by 2(N) (where N equals a positive or negative integer). A simple additive model for total solar-output variations was developed by superimposing a progression of fundamental harmonic cycles with slightly increasing amplitudes. The timeline of the model was calibrated to the Pleistocene/Holocene boundary at 9,000 years before present. The calibrated model was compared with geophysical, archaeological, and historical evidence of warm or cold climates during the Holocene. The evidence of periods of several centuries of cooler climates worldwide called 'little ice ages,' similar to the period anno Domini (A.D.) 1280-1860 and reoccurring approximately every 1,300 years, corresponds well with fluctuations in modeled solar output. A more detailed examination of the climate sensitive history of the last 1,000 years further supports the model. Extrapolation of the model into the future suggests a gradual cooling during the next few centuries with intermittent minor warmups and a return to near little-ice-age conditions within the next 500 years. This cool period then may be followed approximately 1,500 years from now by a return to altithermal conditions similar to the previous Holocene Maximum.

Variations in return value estimate of ocean surface waves - a study based on measured buoy data and ERA-Interim reanalysis data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muhammed Naseef, T.; Sanil Kumar, V.

2017-10-01

An assessment of extreme wave characteristics during the design of marine facilities not only helps to ensure their safety but also assess the economic aspects. In this study, return levels of significant wave height (Hs) for different periods are estimated using the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) based on the Waverider buoy data spanning 8 years and the ERA-Interim reanalysis data spanning 38 years. The analysis is carried out for wind-sea, swell and total Hs separately for buoy data. Seasonality of the prevailing wave climate is also considered in the analysis to provide return levels for short-term activities in the location. The study shows that the initial distribution method (IDM) underestimates return levels compared to GPD. The maximum return levels estimated by the GPD corresponding to 100 years are 5.10 m for the monsoon season (JJAS), 2.66 m for the pre-monsoon season (FMAM) and 4.28 m for the post-monsoon season (ONDJ). The intercomparison of return levels by block maxima (annual, seasonal and monthly maxima) and the r-largest method for GEV theory shows that the maximum return level for 100 years is 7.20 m in the r-largest series followed by monthly maxima (6.02 m) and annual maxima (AM) (5.66 m) series. The analysis is also carried out to understand the sensitivity of the number of observations for the GEV annual maxima estimates. It indicates that the variations in the standard deviation of the series caused by changes in the number of observations are positively correlated with the return level estimates. The 100-year return level results of Hs using the GEV method are comparable for short-term (2008 to 2016) buoy data (4.18 m) and long-term (1979 to 2016) ERA-Interim shallow data (4.39 m). The 6 h interval data tend to miss high values of Hs, and hence there is a significant difference in the 100-year return level Hs obtained using 6 h interval data compared to data at 0.5 h interval. The study shows that a single storm can cause a large difference in the 100-year Hs value.

Increases in flood magnitudes in California under warming climates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Das, Tapash; Maurer, Edwin P.; Pierce, David W.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Cayah, Daniel R.

2013-01-01

Downscaled and hydrologically modeled projections from an ensemble of 16 Global Climate Models suggest that flooding may become more intense on the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada mountains, the primary source for California’s managed water system. By the end of the 21st century, all 16 climate projections for the high greenhouse-gas emission SRES A2 scenario yield larger floods with return periods ranging 2–50 years for both the Northern Sierra Nevada and Southern Sierra Nevada, regardless of the direction of change in mean precipitation. By end of century, discharges from the Northern Sierra Nevada with 50-year return periods increase by 30–90% depending on climate model, compared to historical values. Corresponding flood flows from the Southern Sierra increase by 50–100%. The increases in simulated 50 year flood flows are larger (at 95% confidence level) than would be expected due to natural variability by as early as 2035 for the SRES A2 scenario.

Stress levels experienced by parents of children with and without attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder during the back-to-school period: results of a European and Canadian survey.

PubMed

Hernández-Otero, Isabel; Doddamani, Lakshman; Dutray, Benoit; Gagliano, Antonella; Haertling, Fabian; Bloomfield, Ralph; Ramnath, Gracita

2015-03-01

The back-to-school stress survey was designed to compare stress in parents of children/ adolescents with/without attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in six European countries and Canada when children prepare to return to school. Parents of children/adolescents (6-17 years) with/without ADHD were recruited and interviewed by a consumer research organization. Parents rated potentially stress-causing situations (both standard and specifically related to the return to school) on a scale from 1 (low stress) to 10 (high stress). Mean scores were compared using Student's t-test. In Europe, 613/693 (mean [SD] age: 40.7 [7.0]/40.1 [6.9] years) and in Canada, 102/150 (mean [SD] age: 44.4 [8.1]/44.1 [7.2] years) parents of children with/without ADHD, respectively, participated in the survey. Children with ADHD (mean [SD] age: 11.2 [3.2]/12.6 [3.2] years in Europe/Canada) had generally similar characteristics in both samples. Parents in the ADHD group showed higher stress levels than parents in the non-ADHD group in all situations (p < 0.001 for Europe). The return to school was considered one of the most stressful events during the year. In Europe and Canada, ADHD has a significant impact on parental stress, particularly during the back-to-school period. This can have important implications as parental stress can affect presentation of ADHD symptoms.

Factors contributing to employment patterns after liver transplantation.

PubMed

Beal, Eliza W; Tumin, Dmitry; Mumtaz, Khalid; Nau, Michael; Tobias, Joseph D; Hayes, Don; Washburn, Kenneth; Black, Sylvester M

2017-06-01

Many liver transplant recipients return to work, but their patterns of employment are unclear. We examine patterns of employment 5 years after liver transplantation. First-time liver transplant recipients ages 18-60 years transplanted from 2002 to 2009 and surviving at least 5 years were identified in the United Network for Organ Sharing registry. Recipients' post-transplant employment status was classified as follows: (i) never employed; (ii) returned to work within 2 years and remained employed (continuous employment); (iii) returned to work within 2 years, but was subsequently unemployed (intermittent employment); or (iv) returned to work ≥3 years post-transplant (delayed employment). Of 28 306 liver recipients identified during the study period, 12 998 survived at least 5 years and contributed at least 1 follow-up of employment status. A minority of patients (4654; 36%) were never employed, while 3780 (29%) were continuously employed, 3027 (23%) were intermittently employed, and 1537 (12%) had delayed employment. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, predictors of intermittent and delayed employment included lower socioeconomic status, higher local unemployment rates, and post-transplant comorbidities or complications. Never, intermittent, and delayed employment are common after liver transplantation. Socioeconomic and labor market characteristics may add to clinical factors that limit liver transplant recipients' continuous employment. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Does the economy affect functional restoration outcomes for patients with chronic disabling occupational musculoskeletal disorders?

PubMed

Hartzell, Meredith M; Mayer, Tom G; Neblett, Randy; Marquardt, Dennis J; Gatchel, Robert J

2015-06-01

To determine how the economy affects psychosocial and socioeconomic treatment outcomes in a cohort of chronic disabling occupational musculoskeletal disorder (CDOMD) patients who completed a functional restoration program (FRP). A cohort of 969 CDOMD patients with active workers' compensation claims completed an FRP (a medically-supervised, quantitatively-directed exercise progression program, with multi-modal disability management). A good economy (GE) group (n = 532) was released to work during a low unemployment period (2005-2007), and a poor economy (PE) group (n = 437) was released during a higher unemployment period (2008-2010). Patients were evaluated upon admission for demographic and psychosocial variables, and were reassessed at discharge. Socioeconomic outcomes, including work return and work retention 1 year post-discharge, were collected. Some significant differences in psychosocial self-report data were found, but most of the effect sizes were small, so caution should be made when interpreting the data. Compared to the PE group, the GE group reported more depressive symptoms and disability at admission, but demonstrated a larger decrease in depressive symptoms and disability and increase in self-reported quality of life at discharge. The PE group had lower rates of work return and retention 1-year after discharge, even after controlling for other factors such as length of disability and admission work status. CDOMD patients who completed an FRP in a PE year were less likely to return to, or retain, work 1-year after discharge, demonstrating that a PE can be an additional barrier to post-discharge work outcomes. A difference in State unemployment rates of <3% (7 vs. 5%) had a disproportionate effect on patients' failure to return to (19 vs. 6%) or retain (28 vs. 15%) work.

L2 Utterance Fluency Development Before, During, and after Residence Abroad: A Multidimensional Investigation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Huensch, Amanda; Tracy-Ventura, Nicole

2017-01-01

This study investigated second language fluency development over a nearly 2-year period which included an academic year abroad and the year immediately following the participants' return to their home university. Data from 24 L1 English learners of Spanish were collected 6 times: once before, 3 times during, and 2 times after a 9-month stay…

Will Decision Support in Medications Order Entry Save Money? A Return On Investment Analysis of the Case of the Hong Kong Hospital Authority

PubMed Central

Fung, Kin Wah; Vogel, Lynn Harold

2003-01-01

The computerized medications order entry system currently used in the public hospitals of Hong Kong does not have decision support features. Plans are underway to add decision support to this system to alert physicians on drug-allergy conflicts, drug-lab result conflicts, drug-drug interactions and atypical dosages. A return on investment analysis is done on this enhancement, both as an examination of whether there is a positive return on the investment and as a contribution to the ongoing discussion of the use of return on investment models in health care information technology investments. It is estimated that the addition of decision support will reduce adverse drug events by 4.2 – 8.4%. Based on this estimate, a total net saving of $44,000 – $586,000 is expected over five years. The breakeven period is estimated to be between two to four years. PMID:14728171

Modelling the ability of source control measures to reduce inundation risk in a community-scale urban drainage system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mei, Chao; Liu, Jiahong; Wang, Hao; Shao, Weiwei; Xia, Lin; Xiang, Chenyao; Zhou, Jinjun

2018-06-01

Urban inundation is a serious challenge that increasingly confronts the residents of many cities, as well as policymakers, in the context of rapid urbanization and climate change worldwide. In recent years, source control measures (SCMs) such as green roofs, permeable pavements, rain gardens, and vegetative swales have been implemented to address flood inundation in urban settings, and proven to be cost-effective and sustainable. In order to investigate the ability of SCMs on reducing inundation in a community-scale urban drainage system, a dynamic rainfall-runoff model of a community-scale urban drainage system was developed based on SWMM. SCMs implementing scenarios were modelled under six design rainstorm events with return period ranging from 2 to 100 years, and inundation risks of the drainage system were evaluated before and after the proposed implementation of SCMs, with a risk-evaluation method based on SWMM and analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Results show that, SCMs implementation resulting in significantly reduction of hydrological indexes that related to inundation risks, range of reduction rates of average flow, peak flow, and total flooded volume of the drainage system were 28.1-72.1, 19.0-69.2, and 33.9-56.0 %, respectively, under six rainfall events with return periods ranging from 2 to 100 years. Corresponding, the inundation risks of the drainage system were significantly reduced after SCMs implementation, the risk values falling below 0.2 when the rainfall return period was less than 10 years. Simulation results confirm the effectiveness of SCMs on mitigating inundation, and quantified the potential of SCMs on reducing inundation risks in the urban drainage system, which provided scientific references for implementing SCMs for inundation control of the study area.

Hurricane Sandy's flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100.

PubMed

Lin, Ning; Kopp, Robert E; Horton, Benjamin P; Donnelly, Jeffrey P

2016-10-25

Coastal flood hazard varies in response to changes in storm surge climatology and the sea level. Here we combine probabilistic projections of the sea level and storm surge climatology to estimate the temporal evolution of flood hazard. We find that New York City's flood hazard has increased significantly over the past two centuries and is very likely to increase more sharply over the 21st century. Due to the effect of sea level rise, the return period of Hurricane Sandy's flood height decreased by a factor of ∼3× from year 1800 to 2000 and is estimated to decrease by a further ∼4.4× from 2000 to 2100 under a moderate-emissions pathway. When potential storm climatology change over the 21st century is also accounted for, Sandy's return period is estimated to decrease by ∼3× to 17× from 2000 to 2100.

Hurricane Sandy’s flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100

PubMed Central

Horton, Benjamin P.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.

2016-01-01

Coastal flood hazard varies in response to changes in storm surge climatology and the sea level. Here we combine probabilistic projections of the sea level and storm surge climatology to estimate the temporal evolution of flood hazard. We find that New York City’s flood hazard has increased significantly over the past two centuries and is very likely to increase more sharply over the 21st century. Due to the effect of sea level rise, the return period of Hurricane Sandy’s flood height decreased by a factor of ∼3× from year 1800 to 2000 and is estimated to decrease by a further ∼4.4× from 2000 to 2100 under a moderate-emissions pathway. When potential storm climatology change over the 21st century is also accounted for, Sandy’s return period is estimated to decrease by ∼3× to 17× from 2000 to 2100. PMID:27790992

The Returns to Human Capital Migration within the Department of Defense Civilian Internal Labor Market

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-09-01

a period of time from year 1 to year T † From Ronald Ehrenberg and Robert Smith. Modern Labor Economics : Theory and...Economic Literature 13 (June): 397- 433. Ehrenberg, Ronald G. and Robert S. Smith. 2003. Modern Labor Economics : Theory and Public Policy. 8th ed

Fire-return intervals in mixed-conifer forests of the Kings River Sustainable Forest Ecosystems Project area

Treesearch

Catherine Phillips

2002-01-01

Fire-return intervals were studied on six 1.4-ha plots in a 2,070-ha study area in the Dinkey Creek watershed. Stumps in mixed-conifer forest were examined for fire scars created from 1771 to 1994, with 1873 chosen as the end of the pre-Euro-American settlement period because the rate of fire events decreased on most plots after about that year. Mean intervals from...

Performance outcomes after repair of complete achilles tendon ruptures in national basketball association players.

PubMed

Amin, Nirav H; Old, Andrew B; Tabb, Loni P; Garg, Rohit; Toossi, Nader; Cerynik, Douglas L

2013-08-01

A complete rupture of the Achilles tendon is a devastating injury. Variables affecting return to competition and performance changes for National Basketball Association (NBA) players are not readily evident. Players in the NBA who ruptured their Achilles tendons and who underwent surgical repair would have more experience in the league, and the performance of those who were able to return to competition would be decreased when compared with their performance before injury and with their control-matched peers. Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3. Data for 18 basketball players with Achilles tendon repair over a 23-year period (1988-2011) were obtained from injury reports, press releases, and player profiles. Variables included age, body mass index (BMI), player position, and number of years playing in the league. Individual season statistics were obtained, and the NBA player efficiency rating (PER) was calculated for 2 seasons before and after injury. Controls were matched by playing position, number of seasons played, and performance statistics. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to assess the effect of each factor. At the time of injury, the average age was 29.7 years, average BMI was 25.6, and average playing experience was 7.6 years. Seven players never returned to play an NBA game, whereas 11 players returned to play 1 season, with 8 of those players returning for ≥2 seasons. Players who returned missed an average of 55.9 games. The PER was reduced by 4.57 (P = .003) in the first season and by 4.38 (P = .010) in the second season. When compared with controls, players demonstrated a significant decline in the PER the first season (P = .038) and second season (P = .081) after their return. The NBA players who returned to play after repair of complete Achilles tendon ruptures showed a significant decrease in playing time and performance. Thirty-nine percent of players never returned to play.

Sensitive period in stereopsis: random dot stereopsis after long-standing strabismus.

PubMed

Hatch, S W; Laudon, R

1993-12-01

Bifoveal fixation is a requirement for random dot stereopsis. It is believed that random dot stereopsis is not possible after treatment of long-standing strabismus because binocular cortical cells are permanently damaged when strabismus is present during the sensitive period. Although the sensitive period for amblyopia has been clearly documented, the sensitive period for stereopsis is uncertain. We present a case we have followed from age 22 months to 10 years. This patient had intermittent esotropia until approximately age 3 years 4 months; he then had constant esotropia from about age 3 years 4 months to age 9 years 7 months. After orthoptic treatment at age 9 years, the patient returned to intermittent esotropia. He subsequently developed bifoveal fixation as measured by 30 sec arc of contour stereopsis and 250 to 500 sec arc of random dot stereopsis. This patient demonstrates that bifoveal fixation can be obtained after long-standing strabismus. We suggest that the sensitive period for stereopsis development, for this patient, was from birth to age 3 years.

Wave Extremes in the Northeast Atlantic from Ensemble Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breivik, Øyvind; Aarnes, Ole Johan; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond; Carrasco, Ana; Saetra, Øyvind

2013-10-01

A method for estimating return values from ensembles of forecasts at advanced lead times is presented. Return values of significant wave height in the North-East Atlantic, the Norwegian Sea and the North Sea are computed from archived +240-h forecasts of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) from 1999 to 2009. We make three assumptions: First, each forecast is representative of a six-hour interval and collectively the data set is then comparable to a time period of 226 years. Second, the model climate matches the observed distribution, which we confirm by comparing with buoy data. Third, the ensemble members are sufficiently uncorrelated to be considered independent realizations of the model climate. We find anomaly correlations of 0.20, but peak events (>P97) are entirely uncorrelated. By comparing return values from individual members with return values of subsamples of the data set we also find that the estimates follow the same distribution and appear unaffected by correlations in the ensemble. The annual mean and variance over the 11-year archived period exhibit no significant departures from stationarity compared with a recent reforecast, i.e., there is no spurious trend due to model upgrades. EPS yields significantly higher return values than ERA-40 and ERA-Interim and is in good agreement with the high-resolution hindcast NORA10, except in the lee of unresolved islands where EPS overestimates and in enclosed seas where it is biased low. Confidence intervals are half the width of those found for ERA-Interim due to the magnitude of the data set.

The dynamics of chronic gout treatment: medication gaps and return to therapy.

PubMed

Harrold, Leslie R; Andrade, Susan E; Briesacher, Becky; Raebel, Marsha A; Fouayzi, Hassan; Yood, Robert A; Ockene, Ira S

2010-01-01

To identify gaps in therapy with urate-lowering drugs for the treatment of gout as well as factors associated with resuming therapy. From 2 integrated delivery systems, we identified patients 18 years or older with a diagnosis of gout who initiated use of a urate-lowering drug from January 1, 2000 through June 30, 2006 and who had a gap in therapy. A gap was defined as a period of over 60 days after the completion of 1 prescription in which no refill for a urate-lowering drug was obtained. Survival curves were used to assess return to therapy of urate-lowering drugs. Cox proportional hazards analysis estimated the association between covariates and return to therapy. There were 4166 new users of urate-lowering drugs (97% received allopurinol), of whom 2929 (70%) had a gap in therapy. Among those with a gap, in 75% it occurred in the first year of therapy. Fifty percent of patients with a gap returned to therapy within 8 months, and by 4 years it was 75%. Age 45-74 years (<45 referent) and greater duration of urate-lowering drug use before the gap was associated with resuming treatment within 1 year. In contrast, receipt of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs or glucocorticoids in the year before the gap was associated with a reduced likelihood of resuming therapy. The majority of gout patients with gaps in urate-lowering drug use returned to treatment. More investigation is needed to better understand why patients may go for months without refilling prescriptions, given the clinical consequences of nonadherence. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using remotely sensed data and stochastic models to simulate realistic flood hazard footprints across the continental US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bates, P. D.; Quinn, N.; Sampson, C. C.; Smith, A.; Wing, O.; Neal, J. C.

2017-12-01

Remotely sensed data has transformed the field of large scale hydraulic modelling. New digital elevation, hydrography and river width data has allowed such models to be created for the first time, and remotely sensed observations of water height, slope and water extent has allowed them to be calibrated and tested. As a result, we are now able to conduct flood risk analyses at national, continental or even global scales. However, continental scale analyses have significant additional complexity compared to typical flood risk modelling approaches. Traditional flood risk assessment uses frequency curves to define the magnitude of extreme flows at gauging stations. The flow values for given design events, such as the 1 in 100 year return period flow, are then used to drive hydraulic models in order to produce maps of flood hazard. Such an approach works well for single gauge locations and local models because over relatively short river reaches (say 10-60km) one can assume that the return period of an event does not vary. At regional to national scales and across multiple river catchments this assumption breaks down, and for a given flood event the return period will be different at different gauging stations, a pattern known as the event `footprint'. Despite this, many national scale risk analyses still use `constant in space' return period hazard layers (e.g. the FEMA Special Flood Hazard Areas) in their calculations. Such an approach can estimate potential exposure, but will over-estimate risk and cannot determine likely flood losses over a whole region or country. We address this problem by using a stochastic model to simulate many realistic extreme event footprints based on observed gauged flows and the statistics of gauge to gauge correlations. We take the entire USGS gauge data catalogue for sites with > 45 years of record and use a conditional approach for multivariate extreme values to generate sets of flood events with realistic return period variation in space. We undertake a number of quality checks of the stochastic model and compare real and simulated footprints to show that the method is able to re-create realistic patterns even at continental scales where there is large variation in flood generating mechanisms. We then show how these patterns can be used to drive a large scale 2D hydraulic to predict regional scale flooding.

Pancreaticoportal Fistula and Disseminated Fat Necrosis After Revision of a Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunt

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Klein, Seth J., E-mail: kleins@mir.wustl.edu; Saad, Nael; Korenblat, Kevin

A 59-year old man with alcohol related cirrhosis and portal hypertension was referred for transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) to treat his refractory ascites. Ten years later, two sequential TIPS revisions were performed for shunt stenosis and recurrent ascites. After these revisions, he returned with increased serum pancreatic enzyme levels and disseminated superficial fat necrosis; an iatrogenic pancreaticoportal vein fistula caused by disruption of the pancreatic duct was suspected. The bare area of the TIPS was subsequently lined with a covered stent-graft, and serum enzyme levels returned to baseline. In the interval follow-up period, the patient has clinically improved.

Long-term changes in the density and structure of the human hip and spine after long-duration spaceflight

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dana Carpenter, R.; LeBlanc, Adrian D.; Evans, Harlan; Sibonga, Jean D.; Lang, Thomas F.

2010-07-01

To determine the long-term effects of long-duration spaceflight, we measured bone mineral density and bone geometry of International Space Station (ISS) crewmembers using quantitative computed tomography (QCT) before launch, immediately upon their return, one year after return, and 2-4.5 years after return from the ISS. Eight crew members (7 male, 1 female, mean age 45±4 years at start of mission) who spent an average of 181 days (range 161-196 days) aboard the ISS took part in the study. Integral bone mineral density (iBMD), trabecular BMD (tBMD), bone mineral content (BMC), and vertebral cross-sectional area (CSA) were measured in the lumbar spine, and iBMD, tBMD, cortical BMD (cBMD), BMC, CSA, volume, and femoral neck section modulus were measured in the hip. Spine iBMD was 95% of the average preflight value upon return from the ISS and reached its preflight value over the next 2-4.5 years. Spine tBMD was 97% of the average preflight value upon return from the ISS and tended to decrease throughout the course of the study. Vertebral CSA remained essentially unchanged throughout the study. Hip iBMD was 91% of the preflight value upon return from the ISS and was 95% of the preflight value after 2-4.5 years of recovery. Hip tBMD was 88% of the preflight value upon return and recovered to only 93% of the preflight value after 1 year. At the 2- to 4.5-year time point, average tBMD was 88% of the preflight value. During the recovery period the total volume and cortical bone volume in the hip reached values of 114% and 110% of their preflight values, respectively. The combination of age-related bone loss, long-duration spaceflight, and re-adaptation to the 1-g terrestrial environment presumably produced these changes. These long-term data suggest that skeletal changes that occur during long-duration spaceflight persist even after multiple years of recovery. These changes have important implications for the skeletal health of crew members, especially those who make repeat trips to space.

Expected Time to Return to Athletic Participation After Stress Fracture in Division I Collegiate Athletes.

PubMed

Miller, Timothy L; Jamieson, Marissa; Everson, Sonsecharae; Siegel, Courtney

2017-12-01

Few studies have documented expected time to return to athletic participation after stress fractures in elite athletes. Time to return to athletic participation after stress fractures would vary by site and severity of stress fracture. Retrospective cohort study. Level 3. All stress fractures diagnosed in a single Division I collegiate men's and women's track and field/cross-country team were recorded over a 3-year period. Site and severity of injury were graded based on Kaeding-Miller classification system for stress fractures. Time to return to full unrestricted athletic participation was recorded for each athlete and correlated with patient sex and site and severity grade of injury. Fifty-seven stress fractures were diagnosed in 38 athletes (mean age, 20.48 years; range, 18-23 years). Ten athletes sustained recurrent or multiple stress fractures. Thirty-seven injuries occurred in women and 20 in men. Thirty-three stress fractures occurred in the tibia, 10 occurred in the second through fourth metatarsals, 3 occurred in the fifth metatarsal, 6 in the tarsal bones (2 navicular), 2 in the femur, and 5 in the pelvis. There were 31 grade II stress fractures, 11 grade III stress fractures, and 2 grade V stress fractures (in the same patient). Mean time to return to unrestricted sport participation was 12.9 ± 5.2 weeks (range, 6-27 weeks). No significant differences in time to return were noted based on injury location or whether stress fracture was grade II or III. The expected time to return to full unrestricted athletic participation after diagnosis of a stress fracture is 12 to 13 weeks for all injury sites. Athletes with grade V (nonunion) stress fractures may require more time to return to sport.

Impacts of climate change on the trends of extreme rainfall indices and values of maximum precipitation at Olimpiyat Station, Istanbul, Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nigussie, Tewodros Assefa; Altunkaynak, Abdusselam

2018-03-01

In this study, extreme rainfall indices of Olimpiyat Station were determined from reference period (1971-2000) and future period (2070-2099) daily rainfall data projected using the HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-ESM2M global circulation models (GCMs) and downscaled by the RegCM4.3.4 regional model under the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The Mann-Kendall (MK) trend statistics was used to detect trends in the indices of each group, and the nonparametric Wilcoxon signed ranks test was employed to identify the presence of differences among the values of the rainfall indices of the three groups. Moreover, the peaks-over-threshold (POT) method was used to undertake frequency analysis and estimate the maximum 24-h rainfall values of various return periods. The results of the M-K-based trend analyses showed that there are insignificant increasing trends in most of the extreme rainfall indices. However, based on the Wilcoxon signed ranks test, the values of the extreme rainfall indices determined for the future period, particularly under RCP8.5, were found to be significantly different from the corresponding values determined for the reference period. The maximum 24-h rainfall amounts of the 50-year return period of the future period under RCP4.5 of the HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-ESM2M GCMs were found to be larger (by 5.85%) than the corresponding value of the reference period by 5.85 and 21.43%, respectively. The results also showed that the maximum 24-h rainfall amount under RCP8.5 of both the HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-ESM2M GCMs was found to be greater (34.33 and 12.18%, respectively, for the 50-year return period) than the reference period values. This may increase the risk of flooding in Ayamama Watershed, and thus, studying the effects of the predicted amount of rainfall under the RCP8.5 scenario on the flooding risk of Ayamama Watershed and devising management strategies are recommended to enhance the design and implementation of adaptation measures.

Flood frequency estimation by national-scale continuous hydrological simulations: an application in Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Formetta, Giuseppe; Stewart, Elizabeth; Bell, Victoria; Reynard, Nick

2017-04-01

Estimation of peak discharge for an assigned return period is a crucial issue in engineering hydrology. It is required for designing and managing hydraulic infrastructure such as dams, reservoirs and bridges. In the UK, the Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH) recommends the use of the index flood method to estimate the design flood as the product of a local scale factor (the index flood, IF) and a dimensionless regional growth factor (GF). For gauged catchments the IF is usually estimated as the median annual maximum flood (QMED), while for ungauged catchments it is computed through multiple linear regression models based on a set of morpho-climatic indices of the basin. The GF is estimated by fitting the annual maxima with the generalised logistic distribution (GL) using two methods depending on the record length and the target return period: single-site or pooled analysis. The single site-analysis estimates the GF from the annual maxima of the subject site alone; the pooled analysis uses data from a set of catchments hydrologically similar to the subject site. In this work estimates of floods up to 100-year return period obtained from the FEH approach are compared to those obtained using Grid-to-Grid, a continuous physically-based hydrological model. The model converts rainfall and potential evapotranspiration into river flows by modelling surface/sub-surface runoff, lateral water movements, and snow-pack. It is configured on a 1km2 grid resolution and it uses spatial datasets of topography, soil, and land cover. It was set up in Great Britain and has been evaluated for the period 1960-2014 in forward-mode (i.e. without parameter calibration) using daily meteorological forcing data. The modelled floods with a given return period (5,10, 30, 50, and 100 years) were computed from the modelled discharge annual maxima and compared to the FEH estimates for 100 catchments in Great Britain. Preliminary results suggest that there is a good agreement between modelled and measured floods with a correlation coefficient that ranges from 0.8 for low return periods to 0.65 for the highest. It is shown that model performance is robust and independent of catchment features such as area and mean annual rainfall. The promising results for Great Britain support the aspiration that continuous simulation from large-scale hydrological models, supported by the increasing availability of global weather, climate and hydrological products, could be used to develop robust methods to help engineers estimate design floods in regions with limited gauge data or affected by environmental change.

Economic feasibility analysis of conventional and dedicated energy crop production

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nelson, R.G.; Langemeier, M.R.; Krehbiel, L.R.

Economic feasibilities (net return per acre) associated with conventional agricultural crop production versus that of dedicated bioenergy crop (herbaceous energy crops) were investigated for northeastern Kansas. Conventional agricultural crops examined were corn, soybeans, wheat, sorghum and alfalfa and dedicated herbaceous energy crops included big bluestem/indiangrass, switchgrass, eastern gamagrass, brome, fescue and cane hay. Costs, prices and government program information from public and private sources were used to project the net return per acre over a six-year period beginning in 1997. Three soil productivity levels (low, average and high), which had a direct effect on the net return per acre, weremore » used to model differences in expected yield. In all three soil productivity cases, big bluestem/indiangrass, switchgrass and brome hay provided a higher net return per acre versus conventional crops grown on both program and non-program acres. Eastern gamagrass, fescue hay and cane hay had returns that were similar or less than returns provided by conventional crops.« less

Geophysical, archaeological, and historical evidence support a solar-output model for climate change

PubMed Central

Perry, Charles A.; Hsu, Kenneth J.

2000-01-01

Although the processes of climate change are not completely understood, an important causal candidate is variation in total solar output. Reported cycles in various climate-proxy data show a tendency to emulate a fundamental harmonic sequence of a basic solar-cycle length (11 years) multiplied by 2N (where N equals a positive or negative integer). A simple additive model for total solar-output variations was developed by superimposing a progression of fundamental harmonic cycles with slightly increasing amplitudes. The timeline of the model was calibrated to the Pleistocene/Holocene boundary at 9,000 years before present. The calibrated model was compared with geophysical, archaeological, and historical evidence of warm or cold climates during the Holocene. The evidence of periods of several centuries of cooler climates worldwide called “little ice ages,” similar to the period anno Domini (A.D.) 1280–1860 and reoccurring approximately every 1,300 years, corresponds well with fluctuations in modeled solar output. A more detailed examination of the climate sensitive history of the last 1,000 years further supports the model. Extrapolation of the model into the future suggests a gradual cooling during the next few centuries with intermittent minor warmups and a return to near little-ice-age conditions within the next 500 years. This cool period then may be followed approximately 1,500 years from now by a return to altithermal conditions similar to the previous Holocene Maximum. PMID:11050181

Aftermarket Performance of Health Care and Biopharmaceutical IPOs: Evidence From ASEAN Countries

PubMed Central

Komenkul, Kulabutr; Kiranand, Santi

2017-01-01

We examine the evidence from the long-run abnormal returns using data for 76 health care and biopharmaceutical initial public offerings (IPOs) listed in a 29-year period between 1986 and 2014 in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines, Vietnam, Myanmar, and Laos. Based on the event-time approach, the 3-year stock returns of the IPOs are investigated using cumulative abnormal return (CAR) and buy-and-hold abnormal return (BHAR). As a robustness check, the calendar-time approach, related to the market model as well as Fama-French and Carhart models, was applied for verifying long-run abnormal returns. We found evidence that the health care IPOs overperform in the long-run, irrespective of the alternative benchmarks and methods. In addition, when we divide our sample into 5 groups by listing countries, our results show that the health care stock prices of the Singaporean firms behaved differently from those of most of the other firms in ASEAN. The Singaporean IPOs are characterized by a worse post-offering performance, whereas the IPOs of Malaysian and Thai health care companies performed better in the long-run. PMID:28853306

Aftermarket Performance of Health Care and Biopharmaceutical IPOs: Evidence From ASEAN Countries.

PubMed

Komenkul, Kulabutr; Kiranand, Santi

2017-01-01

We examine the evidence from the long-run abnormal returns using data for 76 health care and biopharmaceutical initial public offerings (IPOs) listed in a 29-year period between 1986 and 2014 in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines, Vietnam, Myanmar, and Laos. Based on the event-time approach, the 3-year stock returns of the IPOs are investigated using cumulative abnormal return (CAR) and buy-and-hold abnormal return (BHAR). As a robustness check, the calendar-time approach, related to the market model as well as Fama-French and Carhart models, was applied for verifying long-run abnormal returns. We found evidence that the health care IPOs overperform in the long-run, irrespective of the alternative benchmarks and methods. In addition, when we divide our sample into 5 groups by listing countries, our results show that the health care stock prices of the Singaporean firms behaved differently from those of most of the other firms in ASEAN. The Singaporean IPOs are characterized by a worse post-offering performance, whereas the IPOs of Malaysian and Thai health care companies performed better in the long-run.

What stock market returns to expect for the future?

PubMed

Diamond, P A

2000-01-01

In evaluating proposals for reforming Social Security that involve stock investments, the Office of the Chief Actuary (OCACT) has generally used a 7.0 percent real return for stocks. The 1994-96 Advisory Council specified that OCACT should use that return in making its 75-year projections of investment-based reform proposals. The assumed ultimate real return on Treasury bonds of 3.0 percent implies a long-run equity premium of 4.0 percent. There are two equity-premium concepts: the realized equity premium, which is measured by the actual rates of return; and the required equity premium, which investors expect to receive for being willing to hold available stocks and bonds. Over the past two centuries, the realized premium was 3.5 percent on average, but 5.2 percent for 1926 to 1998. Some critics argue that the 7.0 percent projected stock returns are too high. They base their arguments on recent developments in the capital market, the current high value of the stock market, and the expectation of slower economic growth. Increased use of mutual funds and the decline in their costs suggest a lower required premium, as does the rising fraction of the American public investing in stocks. The size of the decrease is limited, however, because the largest cost savings do not apply to the very wealthy and to large institutional investors, who hold a much larger share of the stock market's total value than do new investors. These trends suggest a lower equity premium for projections than the 5.2 percent of the past 75 years. Also, a declining required premium is likely to imply a temporary increase in the realized premium because a rising willingness to hold stocks tends to increase their price. Therefore, it would be a mistake during a transition period to extrapolate what may be a temporarily high realized return. In the standard (Solow) economic growth model, an assumption of slower long-run growth lowers the marginal product of capital if the savings rate is constant. But lower savings as growth slows should partially or fully offset that effect. The present high stock prices, together with projected slow economic growth, are not consistent with a 7.0 percent return. With a plausible level of adjusted dividends (dividends plus net share repurchases), the ratio of stock value to gross domestic product (GDP) would rise more than 20-fold over 75 years. Similarly, the steady-state Gordon formula--that stock returns equal the adjusted dividend yield plus the growth rate of stock prices (equal to that of GDP)--suggests a return of roughly 4.0 percent to 4.5 percent. Moreover, when relative stock values have been high, returns over the following decade have tended to be low. To eliminate the inconsistency posed by the assumed 7.0 percent return, one could assume higher GDP growth, a lower long-run stock return, or a lower short-run stock return with a 7.0 percent return on a lower base thereafter. For example, with an adjusted dividend yield of 2.5 percent to 3.0 percent, the market would have to decline about 35 percent to 45 percent in real terms over the next decade to reach steady state. In short, either the stock market is overvalued and requires a correction to justify a 7.0 percent return thereafter, or it is correctly valued and the long-run return is substantially lower than 7.0 percent (or some combination). This article argues that the "overvalued" view is more convincing, since the "correctly valued" hypothesis implies an implausibly small equity premium. Although OCACT could adopt a lower rate for the entire 75-year period, a better approach would be to assume lower returns over the next decade and a 7.0 percent return thereafter.

Return to work after treatment for primary breast cancer over a 6-year period: results from a prospective study comparing patients with the general population.

PubMed

Noeres, Dorothee; Park-Simon, Tjoung-Won; Grabow, Jördis; Sperlich, Stefanie; Koch-Gießelmann, Heike; Jaunzeme, Jelena; Geyer, Siegfried

2013-07-01

Only little research has been conducted on breast cancer survivors returning to work in Germany. This paper explores two questions: (1) Does breast cancer lead to an increased drop-out of paid work? (2) Do other factors, apart from their illness, help explain breast cancer survivors' (temporary) retirement from work? To the best of our knowledge, this is the first comparative and prospective study on breast cancer survivors returning to work in Germany. We consider this work to be a relevant research for three reasons: (1) It exceeds the observation period of previous international studies by another 3 years. (2) By including the comparison with a population sample, it allows to take the specific situation of breast cancer patients into account. This refers to their illness as well as to the socio-economic context. (3) It combines qualitative and quantitative methods in order to receive patients' individual interpretations. The analysis is based on a sample of 227 breast cancer patients, participating in a prospective study on the role of psychosocial factors in the long-term course of breast cancer and a random sample of 647 age-matched women living in northern Germany. Employment and demographic data were observed directly before primary surgery (2002-2004), 1 year later (2003-2005) and again 5 years later (2008-2010). In addition, qualitative interviews at the three different observations served as a basis for quantitative data analyses, which were mainly performed by logistic regression models. One year after primary surgery, nearly three times as many cancer survivors had left their job as compared to the women in the reference group. For breast cancer survivors, a lower level of education, part-time employment, the severity of work-related difficulties and participation in inpatient rehabilitation correlated significantly with the failure to return to work. Six years after surgery, the probability of returning to work was still only half as high among breast cancer survivors than among controls. The main predictor for not returning to work was found to be age; tumour stage and the severity of side effects of treatment also seemed to have an impact. Breast cancer survivorship in Germany increases the risk of dropping out of paid work. The influence of work- and illness-related factors varies considerably between the early and late phases of recovery after breast cancer treatment. The comparative analysis demonstrates the relevance of labour market and pension legislation in Germany.

Partitioning the impacts of spatial and climatological rainfall variability in urban drainage modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peleg, Nadav; Blumensaat, Frank; Molnar, Peter; Fatichi, Simone; Burlando, Paolo

2017-03-01

The performance of urban drainage systems is typically examined using hydrological and hydrodynamic models where rainfall input is uniformly distributed, i.e., derived from a single or very few rain gauges. When models are fed with a single uniformly distributed rainfall realization, the response of the urban drainage system to the rainfall variability remains unexplored. The goal of this study was to understand how climate variability and spatial rainfall variability, jointly or individually considered, affect the response of a calibrated hydrodynamic urban drainage model. A stochastic spatially distributed rainfall generator (STREAP - Space-Time Realizations of Areal Precipitation) was used to simulate many realizations of rainfall for a 30-year period, accounting for both climate variability and spatial rainfall variability. The generated rainfall ensemble was used as input into a calibrated hydrodynamic model (EPA SWMM - the US EPA's Storm Water Management Model) to simulate surface runoff and channel flow in a small urban catchment in the city of Lucerne, Switzerland. The variability of peak flows in response to rainfall of different return periods was evaluated at three different locations in the urban drainage network and partitioned among its sources. The main contribution to the total flow variability was found to originate from the natural climate variability (on average over 74 %). In addition, the relative contribution of the spatial rainfall variability to the total flow variability was found to increase with longer return periods. This suggests that while the use of spatially distributed rainfall data can supply valuable information for sewer network design (typically based on rainfall with return periods from 5 to 15 years), there is a more pronounced relevance when conducting flood risk assessments for larger return periods. The results show the importance of using multiple distributed rainfall realizations in urban hydrology studies to capture the total flow variability in the response of the urban drainage systems to heavy rainfall events.

Peak flood estimation using gene expression programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zorn, Conrad R.; Shamseldin, Asaad Y.

2015-12-01

As a case study for the Auckland Region of New Zealand, this paper investigates the potential use of gene-expression programming (GEP) in predicting specific return period events in comparison to the established and widely used Regional Flood Estimation (RFE) method. Initially calibrated to 14 gauged sites, the GEP derived model was further validated to 10 and 100 year flood events with a relative errors of 29% and 18%, respectively. This is compared to the RFE method providing 48% and 44% errors for the same flood events. While the effectiveness of GEP in predicting specific return period events is made apparent, it is argued that the derived equations should be used in conjunction with those existing methodologies rather than as a replacement.

Placement from community-based mental retardation programs: how well do clients do?

PubMed

Schalock, R L; Harper, R S

1978-11-01

Mentally retarded clients (N = 131) placed during a 2-year period from either an independent living or competitive employment training program were evaluated as to placement success. Thirteen percent returned to the training program. Successful independent living placement was related to intelligence and demonstrated skills in symbolic operations, personal maintenance, clothing care and use, socially appropriate behavior, and functional academics. Successful employment was related to sensorimotor, visual-auditory processing, language, and symbolic-operations skills. Major reasons for returning from a job to the competitive employment training program included inappropriate behavior or need for more training; returning from community living placement was related to money management, apartment cleanliness, social behavior, and meal preparation.

Evolution of precipitation extremes in two large ensembles of climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martel, Jean-Luc; Mailhot, Alain; Talbot, Guillaume; Brissette, François; Ludwig, Ralf; Frigon, Anne; Leduc, Martin; Turcotte, Richard

2017-04-01

Recent studies project significant changes in the future distribution of precipitation extremes due to global warming. It is likely that extreme precipitation intensity will increase in a future climate and that extreme events will be more frequent. In this work, annual maxima daily precipitation series from the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) 50-member large ensemble (spatial resolution of 2.8°x2.8°) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) 40-member large ensemble (spatial resolution of 1°x1°) are used to investigate extreme precipitation over the historical (1980-2010) and future (2070-2100) periods. The use of these ensembles results in respectively 1 500 (30 years x 50 members) and 1200 (30 years x 40 members) simulated years over both the historical and future periods. These large datasets allow the computation of empirical daily extreme precipitation quantiles for large return periods. Using the CanESM2 and CESM1 large ensembles, extreme daily precipitation with return periods ranging from 2 to 100 years are computed in historical and future periods to assess the impact of climate change. Results indicate that daily precipitation extremes generally increase in the future over most land grid points and that these increases will also impact the 100-year extreme daily precipitation. Considering that many public infrastructures have lifespans exceeding 75 years, the increase in extremes has important implications on service levels of water infrastructures and public safety. Estimated increases in precipitation associated to very extreme precipitation events (e.g. 100 years) will drastically change the likelihood of flooding and their extent in future climate. These results, although interesting, need to be extended to sub-daily durations, relevant for urban flooding protection and urban infrastructure design (e.g. sewer networks, culverts). Models and simulations at finer spatial and temporal resolution are therefore needed.

Institutional Venture Capital for the Space Industry: Providing Risk Capital for Space Companies that Provide Investor Returns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, Roscoe M., III

2002-01-01

provided by an institution. Those institutions tend to be Banks, Pension Funds, Insurance Funds, Corporations, and other incorporated entities that are obligated to earn a return on their invested capital. These institutions invest in a venture capital firm for the sole purpose of getting their money back with a healthy profit - within a set period of time. The venture capital firm is responsible for investing in and managing companies whose risk and return are higher than other less risky classes of investment. The venture capital firm's primary skill is its ability to manage the high risk of its venture investments while maintaining the high return potential of its venture investments. to businesses for the purpose of providing the above-mentioned Institutions a substantial return on their invested capital. Institutional Venture Capital for the Space Industry cannot be provided to projects or companies whose philosophy or intention is not to increase shareholder equity value within a set time period. efficiently when tied up in companies that intend to spend billions of dollars before the first dollar of revenue is generated. If 2 billion dollars of venture capital is invested in the equity of a Space Company for a minority equity position, then that Space Company must build that minority shareholder's equity value to a minimum investment return of 4 to 8 billion dollars. There are not many start-up companies that are able to reach public market equity valuations in the tens of billions of dollars within reasonable time horizons. Foundations, Manufacturers, and Strategic Investors can invest in projects that cannot realistically provide a substantial return on their equity to their investors within a reasonable period (5-7 years) of time. Venture Capitalists have to make money. Venture capitalists have made money on Satellite Television, Satellite Radio, Fixed Satellite Services, and other businesses. Venture capitalists have not made money on stand-alone aerospace projects that must create new markets to generate revenue.

Non-stationarity of extreme weather events in a changing climate - an application to long-term droughts in the US Southwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grossmann, I.

2013-12-01

Return periods of many extreme weather events are not stationary over time, given increasing risks due to global warming and multidecadal variability resulting from large scale climate patterns. This is problematic as extreme weather events and long-term climate risks such as droughts are typically conceptualized via measures such as return periods that implicitly assume non-stationarity. I briefly review these problems and present an application to the non-stationarity of droughts in the US Southwest. The US Southwest relies on annual precipitation maxima during winter and the North American Monsoon (NAM), both of which vary with large-scale climate patterns, in particular ENSO, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The latter two exhibit variability on longer (multi-decadal) time scales in addition to short-term variations. The region is also part of the subtropical belt projected to become more arid in a warming climate. The possible multidecadal impacts of the PDO on precipitation in the study region are analyzed with a focus on Arizona and New Mexico, using GPCC and CRU data since 1900. The projected impacts of the PDO on annual precipitation during the next three decades with GPCC data are similar in scale to the impacts of global warming on precipitation according to the A1B scenario and the CMIP2 multi-model means, while the combined impact of the PDO and AMO is about 19% larger. The effects according to the CRU dataset are about half as large as the projected global warming impacts. Given the magnitude of the projected impacts from both multidecadal variability and global warming, water management needs to explicitly incorporate both of these trends into long-term planning. Multi-decadal variability could be incorporated into the concept of return periods by presenting return periods as time-varying or as conditional on the respective 'phase' of relevant multidecadal patterns and on global warming. Problems in detecting the PDO signal and potential solutions are also discussed. We find that the long-term effect of the PDO can be more clearly separated from short-term variability by considering return periods of multi-year drought measures rather than return periods of simple drought measures that are more affected by short-term variations.

A Lunar Chronology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schaeffer, Oliver A.

1973-01-01

Discusses methods used in determination of absolute isotopic ages for the returned lunar material, including the uranium-lead, rubidium-strontium, and argon 40-argon 39 ratio methods. Indicates that there would exist a basin-forming bombardment period for the Moon extending over at least 300 million years. (CC)

The Avalanche Catastrophe of El Teniente-chile: August 8 of 1944.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vergara, J.; Baros, M.

The avalanche of El Teniente-Chile (~34S) August 8 of 1944, was the most serious avalanche accident in Chile of the last 100 years. On the night of August 8, 1944, a major avalanche impacted a The Sewell, a worked village of the Copper Mine of El Teniente, there were 102 fatalities, 8 building, one school and one bridged de- stroyed. Due to a storm over the central part of Chile where intense precipitation fall over the Andes mountains during nine days. Historical precipitation records near to Sewell shows that total rainfall during the storms was 299mm (La Rufina) and 349mm (Bullileo), and the day before of avalanche the 24 hours rain intensity was 93mm. The Weilbull statistical analysis of monthly snowfall (water equivalent) record in Sewell from 1912-2001 show that the total August 1944 snowfall (621mm) was the larger of the all historical records and the return period is close one events in 180 years, and the annual snowfall during 1944 was 1140mm and return periods was 3.8 years. KEYWRODS: Chile, Avalanches, Andes Mountains, Avalanche Disaster, Historical Snow Records.

The Profitability Analysis of PT. Garuda Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. Before and After Privatization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nurasiah, I.; Anggara

2017-03-01

This study purposes to determine differences in the profitability of PT. Garuda Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. before and after privatization using Net Profit Margin (NPM), Return on Investmen (ROI) and Return on Equity (ROE). This research used a case study method with a qualitative approach. The data used are secondary data from official financial statements of PT. Garuda Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. periode 2008-2013, 3 years before privatization and 3 years after privatization. Data analysis was performed by reviewing the financial statement data, calculate & determine the value of profitability ratios before and after privatization, and determine the amount of the average difference before and after privatization. The result proved that the average ratio of profitability calculated by applying NPM, ROI and ROE in every year shows a decrease that caused imbalance components forming of NPM, ROI, ROE, where profit is getting down while the selling, total assets and equity increase more and more from the previous period. The implication for the next research is a research that focus on determine how long a company can emerged from the crisis by privatization decision.

Drinking Patterns Across Spring, Summer, and Fall in 462 University Students.

PubMed

Schuckit, Marc A; Smith, Tom L; Clausen, Peyton; Skidmore, Jessica; Shafir, Alexandra; Kalmijn, Jelger

2016-04-01

Student heavy drinking and associated problems are common at most universities and fluctuate throughout the calendar year, with marked increases during celebrations. Most studies of student drinking are limited to the academic year itself, and relatively few focus specifically on special heavy drinking events. Even fewer studies include drinking during summer break and subsequent school return. In the context of an experimental protocol, beginning in January 2014, alcohol-related characteristics were evaluated 8 times over 55 weeks for 462 college freshmen, including periods that incorporated a campus festival, summer, and school return. Baseline predictors of drinking quantities over time included demography, substance use patterns, as well as environmental and attitudinal characteristics. Product-moment correlations evaluated relationships between baseline characteristics and subsequent quantities, and simultaneous entry regression analyses evaluated which characteristics most robustly predicted usual and maximum drinks over time. Maximum drinks per occasion increased 18% from the early spring (4/8/14 to 5/6/14) to the campus festival period (5/7/14 to 6/3/14), decreased 29% in the summer (7/8/14 to 8/5/14), and increased 31% on school return (10/7/14 to 11/4/14). The most robust predictors of higher quantities in regression analyses included items from each of the 3 major domains with the most consistent results seen for most baseline alcohol-related items and descriptive drinking norms (R(2) = 0.20 to 0.31). These data demonstrate important changes in students' drinking during the calendar year, including expected large increases during the month of a 1-day festival, large decreases over the summer, and resumption of relatively high quantities upon return to school. Copyright © 2016 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

A Framework for Flood Risk Analysis and Benefit Assessment of Flood Control Measures in Urban Areas

PubMed Central

Li, Chaochao; Cheng, Xiaotao; Li, Na; Du, Xiaohe; Yu, Qian; Kan, Guangyuan

2016-01-01

Flood risk analysis is more complex in urban areas than that in rural areas because of their closely packed buildings, different kinds of land uses, and large number of flood control works and drainage systems. The purpose of this paper is to propose a practical framework for flood risk analysis and benefit assessment of flood control measures in urban areas. Based on the concept of disaster risk triangle (hazard, vulnerability and exposure), a comprehensive analysis method and a general procedure were proposed for urban flood risk analysis. Urban Flood Simulation Model (UFSM) and Urban Flood Damage Assessment Model (UFDAM) were integrated to estimate the flood risk in the Pudong flood protection area (Shanghai, China). S-shaped functions were adopted to represent flood return period and damage (R-D) curves. The study results show that flood control works could significantly reduce the flood risk within the 66-year flood return period and the flood risk was reduced by 15.59%. However, the flood risk was only reduced by 7.06% when the flood return period exceeded 66-years. Hence, it is difficult to meet the increasing demands for flood control solely relying on structural measures. The R-D function is suitable to describe the changes of flood control capacity. This frame work can assess the flood risk reduction due to flood control measures, and provide crucial information for strategy development and planning adaptation. PMID:27527202

The Effectiveness of Warranties in the Solar Photovoltaic and Automobile Industries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Formica, Tyler J.

A warranty is an agreement outlined by a manufacturer to a customer that defines performance requirements for a product or service. Although long warranty periods are a useful marketing tool, in 2011 the warranty claims expense was 2.6% of total sales for computer original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and is over 2% of total sales in many other industries today. Solar PV systems offer inverters with 5-15 year warranties and PV modules with 25-year performance warranties. This is problematic for the return on investment (ROI) of solar PV systems when the modules are still productive and covered under warranty but inverter failures occur due to degradation of electronic components after their warranty has expired. Out-of-warranty inverter failures during the lifetime of solar panels decrease the ROI of solar PV systems significantly and can cause the annual ROI to actually be negative 15-25 years into the lifetime of the system. This thesis analyzes the factors that contribute to designing an optimal warranty period and the relationship between reliability and warranty periods using General Motors (GM) and the solar PV industry as case studies. A return on investment of a solar photovoltaic system is also conducted and the effect of reliability, changing tax credit structures, and failure areas of solar PV systems are analyzed.

Zonification of Areas Susceptible to Slope Instability in the State of Colima, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramirez-Ruiz, J. J.

2015-12-01

The Topography of the State of Colima in combination with the tectonic and geographic situation originates vulnerability to the slope instability in the Occidental part of Mexico. This problematic increase in rain Season ( May to November) due to the presence of hurricanes that can produce a great precipitations in a short time period. Likewise the seismicity present in this area due to the tectonic interaction of the tectonic plates (Cocos subducting to the Northamerica) contribute to increase this phenomenology. Here we present the results of zonification using a methodology to estimate the susceptibility areas and a procedure to estimate the probability of occurrent of this phenomena originated by precipitation and seismicity. By zonification of areas we consider topographic, morphologic and geologic factors to determine the category of the areas. . For the risk we consider the Susceptibiliy, Precipitation and Seismicity as will be described here. We consider the Precipitation return period of 2, 5, 10, 50 and 100 years to estimate the risk of slope instability in the State of Colima. We observe that risk increase on this area considering the precipitation return periods of 25, 50 and 100 years and it will be accelerated by the occurrence of seismicity specially by magnitude great than 7 as it occurs at least one time each 5 years.

Larch Forests of Middle Siberia: Long-Term Trends in Fire Return Intervals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kharuk, Viacheslav I.; Dvinskaya, Mariya L.; Petrov, Ilya A.; Im, Sergei T.; Ranson, Kenneth J.

2016-01-01

Fire history within the northern larch forests of Central Siberia was studied (65 + deg N). Fires within this area are predominantly caused by lightning strikes rather than human activity. Mean fire return intervals (FRIs) were found to be 112 ± 49 years (based on fire scars) and 106 ± 36 years (based on fire scars and tree natality dates). FRI were increased with latitude increase and observed to be about 80 years at 64 deg N, about 200 years near the Arctic Circle and about 300 years nearby the northern range limit of larch stands (approximately 71 deg + N). Northward FRI increase correlated with incoming solar radiation (r = -0.95). Post Little Ice Age (LIA) warming (after 1850) caused approximately a doubling of fire events (in comparison with a similar period during LIA). The data obtained support a hypothesis of climate-induced fire frequency increase.

Larch Forests of Middle Siberia: Long-Term Trends in Fire Return Intervals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kharuk, Viacheslav I.; Dvinskaya, Mariya L.; Petrov, Ilya A.; Im, Sergei T.; Ranson, Kenneth J.

2016-01-01

Fire history within the northern larch forests of Central Siberia was studied (65+degN). Fires within this area are predominantly caused by lightning strikes rather than human activity. Mean fire return intervals (FRIs) were found to be 112 +/- 49 years (based on firescars) and 106 +/- 36 years (based on firescars and tree natality dates). FRIs were increased with latitude increase and observed to be about 80 years at 64N, about 200 years near the Arctic Circle and about 300 years nearby the northern range limit of larch stands (approx.71+degN). Northward FRIs increase correlated with incoming solar radiation (r = -0.95). Post- Little Ice Age (LIA) warming (after 1850) caused approximately a doubling of fire events (in comparison with a similar period during LIA). The data obtained support a hypothesis of climate-induced fire frequency increase. Keywords Fire ecology Fire history Fire frequency Siberian wildfires Larch forests Climate change

Larch Forests of Middle Siberia: Long-Term Trends in Fire Return Intervals

PubMed Central

Kharuk, Viacheslav I.; Dvinskaya, Mariya L.; Petrov, Ilya A.; Im, Sergei T.; Ranson, Kenneth J.

2017-01-01

Fire history within the northern larch forests of Central Siberia was studied (65+°N). Fires within this area are predominantly caused by lightning strikes rather than human activity. Mean fire return intervals (FRI) were found to be 112 ± 49 years (based on fire scars) and 106 ± 36 years (based on fire scars and tree natality dates). FRI were increased with latitude increase, and observed to be about 80 years at 64°N, about 200 years near the Arctic Circle, and about 300 years nearby the northern range limit of larch stands (~71°+N). Northward FRI increase correlated with incoming solar radiation (r = − 0.95). Post Little Ice Age (LIA) warming (after 1850) caused approximately a doubling of fire events (in comparison with a similar period during LIA). The data obtained support a hypothesis of climate-induced fire frequency increase. PMID:28966554

Economic return from the Women's Health Initiative estrogen plus progestin clinical trial: a modeling study.

PubMed

Roth, Joshua A; Etzioni, Ruth; Waters, Teresa M; Pettinger, Mary; Rossouw, Jacques E; Anderson, Garnet L; Chlebowski, Rowan T; Manson, Joann E; Hlatky, Mark; Johnson, Karen C; Ramsey, Scott D

2014-05-06

The findings of the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) estrogen plus progestin (E+P) trial led to a substantial reduction in use of combined hormone therapy (cHT) among postmenopausal women in the United States. The economic effect of this shift has not been evaluated relative to the trial's $260 million cost (2012 U.S. dollars). To estimate the economic return from the WHI E+P trial. Decision model to simulate health outcomes for a "WHI scenario" with observed cHT use and a "no-WHI scenario" with cHT use extrapolated from the pretrial period. Primary analyses of WHI outcomes, peer-reviewed literature, and government sources. Postmenopausal women in the United States, aged 50 to 79 years, who did not have a hysterectomy. 2003 to 2012. Payer. Combined hormone therapy. Disease incidence, expenditure, quality-adjusted life-years, and net economic return. The WHI scenario resulted in 4.3 million fewer cHT users, 126,000 fewer breast cancer cases, 76,000 fewer cardiovascular disease cases, 263,000 more fractures, 145,000 more quality-adjusted life-years, and expenditure savings of $35.2 billion. The corresponding net economic return of the trial was $37.1 billion ($140 per dollar invested in the trial) at a willingness-to-pay level of $100,000 per quality-adjusted life-year. The 95% CI for the net economic return of the trial was $23.1 to $51.2 billion. No evaluation of indirect costs or outcomes beyond 2012. The WHI E+P trial made high-value use of public funds with a substantial return on investment. These results can contribute to discussions about the role of public funding for large, prospective trials with high potential for public health effects. National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.

Fever and Multiple Eschars After an African Safari: Report of Three Cases.

PubMed

Albízuri Prado, Fátima; Sánchez, Alba; Feito, Marta; Mayor, Ander; Rodriguez, Ana; de Lucas, Raúl

2017-07-01

African tick-bite fever (ATBF), a tickborne disease endemic in rural areas of sub-Saharan Africa and the West Indies caused by Rickettsia africae, has been recognized as an emerging health problem in recent years. ATBF has been reported as the second most commonly documented etiology of fever, after malaria, in travelers who return ill from sub-Saharan Africa. Most cases reported in the literature occurred in middle-aged adults, so the incidence of ATBF in children is unclear. We report a cluster of three cases of ATBF that occurred in children ages 7 to 16 years after returning from a game-hunting safari in South Africa. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Outbursts in Symbiotic Binaries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mushotzky, Richard (Technical Monitor); Kenyon, Scott J.

2003-01-01

Two models have been proposed for the outbursts of symbiotic stars. In the thermonuclear model, outbursts begin when the hydrogen burning shell of a hot white dwarf reaches a critical mass. After a rapid increase in the luminosity and effective temperature, the white dwarf evolves at constant luminosity to lower effective temperatures, remains at optical maximum for several years, and then returns to quiescence along a white dwarf cooling curve. In disk instability models, the brightness rises when the accretion rate from the disk onto the central white dwarf abruptly increases by factors of 5-20. After a few month to several year period at maximum, both the luminosity and the effective temperature of the disk decline as the system returns to quiescence.

Spatiotemporal changes in precipitation extremes over Yangtze River basin, China, considering the rainfall shift in the late 1970s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Tao; Xie, Lian

2016-12-01

Precipitation extremes are the dominated causes for the formation of severe flood disasters at regional and local scales under the background of global climate change. In the present study, five annual extreme precipitation events, including 1, 7 and 30 day annual maximum rainfall and 95th and 97.5th percentile threshold levels, are analyzed relating to the reference period 1960-2011 from 140 meteorological stations over Yangtze River basin (YRB). A generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is applied to fit annual and percentile extreme precipitation events at each station with return periods up to 200 years. The entire time period is divided into preclimatic (preceding climatic) period 1960-1980 and aftclimatic (after climatic) period 1981-2011 by considering distinctly abrupt shift of precipitation regime in the late 1970s across YRB. And the Mann-Kendall trend test is adopted to conduct trend analysis during pre- and aftclimatic periods, respectively, for the purpose of exploring possible increasing/decreasing patterns in precipitation extremes. The results indicate that the increasing trends for return values during aftclimatic period change significantly in time and space in terms of different magnitudes of extreme precipitation, while the stations with significantly positive trends are mainly distributed in the vicinity of the mainstream and major tributaries as well as large lakes, this would result in more tremendous flood disasters in the mid-lower reaches of YRB, especially in southeast coastal regions. The increasing/decreasing linear trends based on annual maximum precipitation are also investigated in pre- and aftclimatic periods, respectively, whereas those changes are not significantly similar to the variations of return values during both subperiods. Moreover, spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation extremes become more uneven and unstable in the second half period over YRB.

Return to Play After Forearm and Hand Injuries in the National Basketball Association.

PubMed

Morse, Kyle W; Hearns, Krystle A; Carlson, Michelle Gerwin

2017-02-01

Hand injuries can result in significant time away from competition for professional basketball players. Time to return to play after hand injuries in elite athletes has not been well described. To report the return to play from metacarpal fractures, phalangeal fractures, and thumb ligament tears in National Basketball Association (NBA) players over a 5-year period. Descriptive epidemiology study. The NBA transaction report was analyzed from January 2009 to May 2014. Players were identified if they were added to the inactive list (IL), missed games due to their injury, or underwent surgery as a result of hand injury. Number of games missed due to injury, days spent on the IL, and age at injury were calculated by injury type and location. One hundred thirty-seven injuries were identified: 39 injuries to the hand and 98 injuries to the finger. Three major injury patterns were identified and analyzed: metacarpal fractures (n = 26), phalangeal fractures (n = 33), and thumb ligament tears (n = 9). The type of injury sustained affected return to play ( P < .05). All thumb ligament tears required surgery and had the longest return to play of 67.5 ± 17.7 days ( P < .05). The return to play for surgically treated metacarpal fractures (56.7 ± 26.3 days) was significantly greater than nonsurgically treated metacarpal fractures (26.3 ± 12.1 days; P < .01). Return to play for surgically repaired phalangeal fractures (46.2 ± 10.8 days) trended greater but was not significantly different than phalangeal fractures treated nonsurgically (33.3 ± 28.5 days; P = .21). Hand injuries in professional basketball players can lead to prolonged periods of time away from competition, especially after surgery. This study provides guidelines on expected return to play in the NBA after these common hand injuries.

Oak management for wood products

Treesearch

Roger Barlow

1971-01-01

A method is presented for analyzing oak management alternatives through comparisons of the present value of the net cash flow produced. Even-aged management without age-class regulation returned $72.60 of present value over a 40-year period. In the next 40 years the only expenses reduce the present value to $72.43. To regulate this stand into a forest with an equal...

Working after a stroke: survivors' experiences and perceptions of barriers to and facilitators of the return to paid employment.

PubMed

Alaszewski, Andy; Alaszewski, Helen; Potter, Jonathan; Penhale, Bridget

2007-12-30

This paper examines respondents' relationship with work following a stroke and explores their experiences including the perceived barriers to and facilitators of a return to employment. Our qualitative study explored the experiences and recovery of 43 individuals under 60 years who had survived a stroke. Participants, who had experienced a first stroke less than three months before and who could engage in in-depth interviews, were recruited through three stroke services in South East England. Each participant was invited to take part in four interviews over an 18-month period and to complete a diary for one week each month during this period. At the time of their stroke a minority of our sample (12, 28% of the original sample) were not actively involved in the labour market and did not return to the work during the period that they were involved in the study. Of the 31 participants working at the time of the stroke, 13 had not returned to work during the period that they were involved in the study, six returned to work after three months and nine returned in under three months and in some cases virtually immediately after their stroke. The participants in our study all valued work and felt that working, especially in paid employment, was more desirable than not working. The participants who were not working at the time of their stroke or who had not returned to work during the period of the study also endorsed these views. However they felt that there were a variety of barriers and practical problems that prevented them working and in some cases had adjusted to a life without paid employment. Participants' relationship with work was influenced by barriers and facilitators. The positive valuations of work were modified by the specific context of stroke, for some participants work was a cause of stress and therefore potentially risky, for others it was a way of demonstrating recovery from stroke. The value and meaning varied between participants and this variation was related to past experience and biography. Participants who wanted to work indicated that their ability to work was influenced by the nature and extent of their residual disabilities. A small group of participants had such severe residual disabilities that managing everyday life was a challenge and that working was not a realistic prospect unless their situation changed radically. The remaining participants all reported residual disabilities. The extent to which these disabilities formed a barrier to work depended on an additional range of factors that acted as either barriers or facilitator to return to work. A flexible working environment and supportive social networks were cited as facilitators of return to paid employment. Participants in our study viewed return to work as an important indicator of recovery following a stroke. Individuals who had not returned to work felt that paid employment was desirable but they could not overcome the barriers. Individuals who returned to work recognized the barriers but had found ways of managing them.

Investigation of market efficiency and Financial Stability between S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange: Monthly and yearly Forecasting of Time Series Stock Returns using ARMA model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rounaghi, Mohammad Mahdi; Nassir Zadeh, Farzaneh

2016-08-01

We investigated the presence and changes in, long memory features in the returns and volatility dynamics of S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange using ARMA model. Recently, multifractal analysis has been evolved as an important way to explain the complexity of financial markets which can hardly be described by linear methods of efficient market theory. In financial markets, the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis implies that price returns are serially uncorrelated sequences. In other words, prices should follow a random walk behavior. The random walk hypothesis is evaluated against alternatives accommodating either unifractality or multifractality. Several studies find that the return volatility of stocks tends to exhibit long-range dependence, heavy tails, and clustering. Because stochastic processes with self-similarity possess long-range dependence and heavy tails, it has been suggested that self-similar processes be employed to capture these characteristics in return volatility modeling. The present study applies monthly and yearly forecasting of Time Series Stock Returns in S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange using ARMA model. The statistical analysis of S&P 500 shows that the ARMA model for S&P 500 outperforms the London stock exchange and it is capable for predicting medium or long horizons using real known values. The statistical analysis in London Stock Exchange shows that the ARMA model for monthly stock returns outperforms the yearly. ​A comparison between S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange shows that both markets are efficient and have Financial Stability during periods of boom and bust.

Welfare Returns and Temporary Time Limits: A Proportional Hazard Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Albert, Vicky N.; King, William C.; Iaci, Ross

2007-01-01

This study analyzes welfare returns for families who leave welfare for a "sit-out" period of 12 months in response to a temporary time limit requirement in Nevada. Findings reveal that relatively few families return for cash assistance after sitting out and that the majority who do return soon after their sit-out period is complete.…

Effect of Sampling Period on Flood Frequency Distributions in the Susquehanna Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kargar, M.; Beighley, R. E.

2010-12-01

Flooding is a devastating natural hazard that claims many human lives and significantly impact regional economies each year. Given the magnitude of flooding impacts, significant resources are dedicated to the development of forecasting models for early warning and evacuation planning, construction of flood defenses (levees/dams) to limit flooding, and the design of civil infrastructure (bridges, culverts, storm sewers) to convey flood flows without failing. In all these cases, it is particularly important to understand the potential flooding risk in terms of both recurrence interval (i.e., return period) and magnitude. Flood frequency analysis (FFA) is a form of risk analysis used to extrapolate the return periods of floods beyond the gauged record. The technique involves using observed annual peak flow discharge data to calculate statistical information such as mean values, standard deviations, skewness, and recurrence intervals. Since discharge data for most catchments have been collected for periods of time less than 100 years, the estimation of the design discharge requires a degree of extrapolation. This study focuses on the assessment and modifications of flood frequency based discharges for sites with limited sampling periods. Here, limited sampling period is intended to capture two issues: (1) limited number of observations to adequately capture the flood frequency signal (i.e., minimum number of annual peaks needed) and (2) climate variability (i.e., sampling period contains primarily “wet” or “dry” periods only). Total of 34 gauges (more than 70 years of data) spread throughout the Susquehanna River basin (71,000 sq km) were used to investigate the impact of sampling period on flood frequency distributions. Data subsets ranging from 10 years to the total number of years available were created from the data for each gauging station. To estimate the flood frequency, the Log Pearson Type III distribution was fit to the logarithms of instantaneous annual peak flows following Bulletin 17B guidelines of the U.S. Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data. The resulting flood frequencies from these subsets were compared to the results from the entire record at each gauge. Based on the analysis, the minimum number of years required to obtain a reasonable flood frequency distribution was determined for each gauge. In addition, a method to adjust flood frequency distribution at a given gauging station with limited data based on other locations with longer periods of records was developed.

The OSIRIS-Rex Asteroid Sample Return: Mission Operations Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gal-Edd, Jonathan; Cheuvront, Allan

2014-01-01

The OSIRIS-REx mission employs a methodical, phased approach to ensure success in meeting the missions science requirements. OSIRIS-REx launches in September 2016, with a backup launch period occurring one year later. Sampling occurs in 2019. The departure burn from Bennu occurs in March 2021. On September 24, 2023, the SRC lands at the Utah Test and Training Range (UTTR). Stardust heritage procedures are followed to transport the SRC to Johnson Space Center, where the samples are removed and delivered to the OSIRIS-REx curation facility. After a six-month preliminary examination period the mission will produce a catalog of the returned sample, allowing the worldwide community to request samples for detailed analysis.Traveling and returning a sample from an Asteroid that has not been explored before requires unique operations consideration. The Design Reference Mission (DRM) ties together space craft, instrument and operations scenarios. The project implemented lessons learned from other small body missions: APLNEAR, JPLDAWN and ESARosetta. The key lesson learned was expected the unexpected and implement planning tools early in the lifecycle. In preparation to PDR, the project changed the asteroid arrival date, to arrive one year earlier and provided additional time margin. STK is used for Mission Design and STKScheduler for instrument coverage analysis.

Spatio-temporal analysis of annual rainfall in Crete, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varouchakis, Emmanouil A.; Corzo, Gerald A.; Karatzas, George P.; Kotsopoulou, Anastasia

2018-03-01

Analysis of rainfall data from the island of Crete, Greece was performed to identify key hydrological years and return periods as well as to analyze the inter-annual behavior of the rainfall variability during the period 1981-2014. The rainfall spatial distribution was also examined in detail to identify vulnerable areas of the island. Data analysis using statistical tools and spectral analysis were applied to investigate and interpret the temporal course of the available rainfall data set. In addition, spatial analysis techniques were applied and compared to determine the rainfall spatial distribution on the island of Crete. The analysis presented that in contrast to Regional Climate Model estimations, rainfall rates have not decreased, while return periods vary depending on seasonality and geographic location. A small but statistical significant increasing trend was detected in the inter-annual rainfall variations as well as a significant rainfall cycle almost every 8 years. In addition, statistically significant correlation of the island's rainfall variability with the North Atlantic Oscillation is identified for the examined period. On the other hand, regression kriging method combining surface elevation as secondary information improved the estimation of the annual rainfall spatial variability on the island of Crete by 70% compared to ordinary kriging. The rainfall spatial and temporal trends on the island of Crete have variable characteristics that depend on the geographical area and on the hydrological period.

Comparison of clinical characteristics and laboratory findings of malaria, dengue, and enteric fever in returning travelers: 8-year experience at a referral center in Tokyo, Japan.

PubMed

Kutsuna, Satoshi; Hayakawa, Kayoko; Kato, Yasuyuki; Fujiya, Yoshihiro; Mawatari, Momoko; Takeshita, Nozomi; Kanagawa, Shuzo; Ohmagari, Norio

2015-07-01

Without specific symptoms, diagnosis of febrile illness in returning travelers is challenging. Dengue, malaria, and enteric fever are common causes of fever in returning travelers and timely and appropriate treatment is important. However, differentiation is difficult without specific diagnostic tests. A retrospective study was conducted at the National Centre for Global Health and Medicine (NCGM) from April 2005 to March 2013. Febrile travelers returning from overseas who were diagnosed with dengue, malaria, or enteric fever were included in this study. Clinical characteristics and laboratory findings were compared for each diagnosis. During the study period, 86 malaria, 85 dengue, and 31 enteric fever cases were identified. The mean age of the study cohort was 33.1 ± 12 years and 134 (66.3%) study participants were male. Asia was the most common area visited by returning travelers with fevers (89% of dengue, 18.6% of malaria, and 100% of enteric fever cases), followed by Africa (1.2% of dengue and 70.9% of malaria cases). Clinical characteristics and laboratory findings were significantly different among each group with each diagnosis. Decision tree models revealed that returning from Africa and CRP levels < 10 mg/L were factors specific for diagnosis of malaria and dengue fever, respectively. Clinical manifestations, simple laboratory test results, and regions of travel are helpful to distinguish between dengue, malaria, and enteric fever in febrile returning travelers with non-specific symptoms.

Earthquake hazard analysis for the different regions in and around Aǧrı

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bayrak, Erdem; Yilmaz, Şeyda; Bayrak, Yusuf

2016-04-01

We investigated earthquake hazard parameters for Eastern part of Turkey by determining the a and b parameters in a Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency relationship. For this purpose, study area is divided into seven different source zones based on their tectonic and seismotectonic regimes. The database used in this work was taken from different sources and catalogues such as TURKNET, International Seismological Centre (ISC), Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS) and The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) for instrumental period. We calculated the a value, b value, which is the slope of the frequency-magnitude Gutenberg-Richter relationship, from the maximum likelihood method (ML). Also, we estimated the mean return periods, the most probable maximum magnitude in the time period of t-years and the probability for an earthquake occurrence for an earthquake magnitude ≥ M during a time span of t-years. We used Zmap software to calculate these parameters. The lowest b value was calculated in Region 1 covered Cobandede Fault Zone. We obtain the highest a value in Region 2 covered Kagizman Fault Zone. This conclusion is strongly supported from the probability value, which shows the largest value (87%) for an earthquake with magnitude greater than or equal to 6.0. The mean return period for such a magnitude is the lowest in this region (49-years). The most probable magnitude in the next 100 years was calculated and we determined the highest value around Cobandede Fault Zone. According to these parameters, Region 1 covered the Cobandede Fault Zone and is the most dangerous area around the Eastern part of Turkey.

Mental health of refugees following state-sponsored repatriation from Germany

PubMed Central

von Lersner, Ulrike; Elbert, Thomas; Neuner, Frank

2008-01-01

Background In recent years, Voluntary Assisted Return Programmes (VARPs) have received increasing funding as a potential way of reducing the number of refugees in EU member states. A number of factors may affect the mental well-being of returnees. These include adjustment to the home country following return, difficult living conditions, and long-term effects resulting from the severe traumatic stress that had originally driven the affected out of their homes. Little is known about the extent to which these and other factors may promote or inhibit the willingness of refugees to return to their country of origin. The present pilot study investigated refugees who returned to their country of origin after having lived in exile in Germany for some 13 years. Methods Forty-seven VARP participants were interviewed concerning their present living conditions, their views of their native country, and their attitudes towards a potential return prior to actually returning. 33 participants were interviewed nine months after returning to their country of origin. Mental health and well-being were assessed using the questionnaires Posttraumatic Stress Diagnostic Scale (PDS) and EUROHIS and the structured Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (M.I.N.I.). Our objectives were to examine the mental health status of refugees returning to their home country following an extended period of exile. We also aimed to assess the circumstances under which people decided to return, the current living conditions in their home country, and retrospective returnee evaluations of their decision to accept assisted return. Results Prior to returning to their home country, participants showed a prevalence rate of 53% for psychiatric disorders. After returning, this rate increased to a sizeable 88%. Substantial correlations were found between the living situation in Germany, the disposition to return, and mental health. For two thirds of the participants, the decision to return was not voluntary. Conclusion Psychological strain among study participants was of a considerable magnitude. As a result of traumatic stress experienced during war and refuge, victims were vulnerable and not well equipped to cope with either post-migration stressors in exile or with a return to their country of origin. It is noteworthy that the majority returned under pressure from immigration authorities. Living conditions after return (such as housing, work, and health care) were poor and unstable. Participants also had great difficulty readapting to the cultural environment after having lived abroad for an average of 13 years. Current VARPs do not take these factors into account and are therefore not able to assist in a humanitarian reintegration of voluntary returnees. PMID:19000300

Mental health of refugees following state-sponsored repatriation from Germany.

PubMed

von Lersner, Ulrike; Elbert, Thomas; Neuner, Frank

2008-11-10

In recent years, Voluntary Assisted Return Programmes (VARPs) have received increasing funding as a potential way of reducing the number of refugees in EU member states. A number of factors may affect the mental well-being of returnees. These include adjustment to the home country following return, difficult living conditions, and long-term effects resulting from the severe traumatic stress that had originally driven the affected out of their homes. Little is known about the extent to which these and other factors may promote or inhibit the willingness of refugees to return to their country of origin. The present pilot study investigated refugees who returned to their country of origin after having lived in exile in Germany for some 13 years. Forty-seven VARP participants were interviewed concerning their present living conditions, their views of their native country, and their attitudes towards a potential return prior to actually returning. 33 participants were interviewed nine months after returning to their country of origin. Mental health and well-being were assessed using the questionnaires Posttraumatic Stress Diagnostic Scale (PDS) and EUROHIS and the structured Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (M.I.N.I.).Our objectives were to examine the mental health status of refugees returning to their home country following an extended period of exile. We also aimed to assess the circumstances under which people decided to return, the current living conditions in their home country, and retrospective returnee evaluations of their decision to accept assisted return. Prior to returning to their home country, participants showed a prevalence rate of 53% for psychiatric disorders. After returning, this rate increased to a sizeable 88%. Substantial correlations were found between the living situation in Germany, the disposition to return, and mental health. For two thirds of the participants, the decision to return was not voluntary. Psychological strain among study participants was of a considerable magnitude. As a result of traumatic stress experienced during war and refuge, victims were vulnerable and not well equipped to cope with either post-migration stressors in exile or with a return to their country of origin. It is noteworthy that the majority returned under pressure from immigration authorities. Living conditions after return (such as housing, work, and health care) were poor and unstable. Participants also had great difficulty readapting to the cultural environment after having lived abroad for an average of 13 years. Current VARPs do not take these factors into account and are therefore not able to assist in a humanitarian reintegration of voluntary returnees.

Anterior Cruciate Ligament Injuries in Baseball Players.

PubMed

Dugas, Jeffrey R; Bedford, Benjamin B; Andrachuk, John S; Scillia, Anthony J; Aune, Kyle T; Cain, E Lyle; Andrews, James R; Fleisig, Glenn S

2016-11-01

To determine common mechanisms of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury in baseball players and to quantify the rate of return to play after primary surgical reconstruction and review intermediate clinical outcomes. Surgical injuries involving the ACL in youth, high school, collegiate, and professional baseball players were queried for an 11-year period (2001 to 2011). Over the study period, 42 baseball players were identified who had undergone arthroscopically assisted primary ACL reconstruction by 1 of 3 attending surgeons. Retrospective chart review was performed for all 42 patients to evaluate variables of age, level of competition, position, mechanism of injury, graft choice, and associated meniscal injuries. Twenty-six patients were reached for telephone survey and International Knee Documentation Committee questionnaire and they answered questions about their original injury and playing history. The most common mechanism of injury was fielding, followed by base running. Infielders and outfielders (32% each) were the most commonly injured position, followed by pitchers (29%). Among the 32 players for whom it could be determined, 30 (94%) were able to return to playing baseball at a mean follow-up of 4.2 years (range 1.0 to 9.9 years). The mean International Knee Documentation Committee score was 84.0 (range 63 to 91). Among the 26 patients contacted for telephone interview, no one required revision ACL surgery, but 3 required a subsequent procedure for meniscal tear. Twenty-five patients (96%) denied any episodes of instability in the knee after reconstruction. The overwhelming majority of baseball players that sustain ACL injuries do so while fielding or base running. Outfielders are significantly more likely than infielders to suffer ACL injuries while fielding versus base running. The results with respect to return to play are promising, as nearly all patients were able to return to baseball and none required a revision ACL surgery at a mean follow-up of 4.2 years. Level IV, therapeutic case series. Copyright © 2016 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using Scaling to Understand, Model and Predict Global Scale Anthropogenic and Natural Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lovejoy, S.; del Rio Amador, L.

2014-12-01

The atmosphere is variable over twenty orders of magnitude in time (≈10-3 to 1017 s) and almost all of the variance is in the spectral "background" which we show can be divided into five scaling regimes: weather, macroweather, climate, macroclimate and megaclimate. We illustrate this with instrumental and paleo data. Based the signs of the fluctuation exponent H, we argue that while the weather is "what you get" (H>0: fluctuations increasing with scale), that it is macroweather (H<0: fluctuations decreasing with scale) - not climate - "that you expect". The conventional framework that treats the background as close to white noise and focuses on quasi-periodic variability assumes a spectrum that is in error by a factor of a quadrillion (≈ 1015). Using this scaling framework, we can quantify the natural variability, distinguish it from anthropogenic variability, test various statistical hypotheses and make stochastic climate forecasts. For example, we estimate the probability that the warming is simply a giant century long natural fluctuation is less than 1%, most likely less than 0.1% and estimate return periods for natural warming events of different strengths and durations, including the slow down ("pause") in the warming since 1998. The return period for the pause was found to be 20-50 years i.e. not very unusual; however it immediately follows a 6 year "pre-pause" warming event of almost the same magnitude with a similar return period (30 - 40 years). To improve on these unconditional estimates, we can use scaling models to exploit the long range memory of the climate process to make accurate stochastic forecasts of the climate including the pause. We illustrate stochastic forecasts on monthly and annual scale series of global and northern hemisphere surface temperatures. We obtain forecast skill nearly as high as the theoretical (scaling) predictability limits allow: for example, using hindcasts we find that at 10 year forecast horizons we can still explain ≈ 15% of the anomaly variance. These scaling hindcasts have comparable - or smaller - RMS errors than existing GCM's. We discuss how these be further improved by going beyond time series forecasts to space-time.

Seismic Hazard and Ground Motion Characterization at the Itoiz Dam (Northern Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivas-Medina, A.; Santoyo, M. A.; Luzón, F.; Benito, B.; Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.; García-Jerez, A.

2012-08-01

This paper presents a new hazard-consistent ground motion characterization of the Itoiz dam site, located in Northern Spain. Firstly, we propose a methodology with different approximation levels to the expected ground motion at the dam site. Secondly, we apply this methodology taking into account the particular characteristics of the site and of the dam. Hazard calculations were performed following the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment method using a logic tree, which accounts for different seismic source zonings and different ground-motion attenuation relationships. The study was done in terms of peak ground acceleration and several spectral accelerations of periods coinciding with the fundamental vibration periods of the dam. In order to estimate these ground motions we consider two different dam conditions: when the dam is empty ( T = 0.1 s) and when it is filled with water to its maximum capacity ( T = 0.22 s). Additionally, seismic hazard analysis is done for two return periods: 975 years, related to the project earthquake, and 4,975 years, identified with an extreme event. Soil conditions were also taken into account at the site of the dam. Through the proposed methodology we deal with different forms of characterizing ground motion at the study site. In a first step, we obtain the uniform hazard response spectra for the two return periods. In a second step, a disaggregation analysis is done in order to obtain the controlling earthquakes that can affect the dam. Subsequently, we characterize the ground motion at the dam site in terms of specific response spectra for target motions defined by the expected values SA ( T) of T = 0.1 and 0.22 s for the return periods of 975 and 4,975 years, respectively. Finally, synthetic acceleration time histories for earthquake events matching the controlling parameters are generated using the discrete wave-number method and subsequently analyzed. Because of the short relative distances between the controlling earthquakes and the dam site we considered finite sources in these computations. We conclude that directivity effects should be taken into account as an important variable in this kind of studies for ground motion characteristics.

Optimising The Available Scarce Water Resources At European Scale In A Modelling Environment: Results And Challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Roo, Ad; Burek, Peter; Gentile, Alessandro; Udias, Angel; Bouraoui, Faycal

2013-04-01

As a next step to European drought monitoring and forecasting, which is covered in the European Drought Observatory (EDO) activity of JRC, a modeling environment has been developed to assess optimum measures to match water availability and water demand, while keeping ecological, water quality and flood risk aspects also into account. A multi-modelling environment has been developed to assess combinations of water retention measures, water savings measures, and nutrient reduction measures for continental Europe. These simulations have been carried out to assess the effects of those measures on several hydro-chemical indicators, such as the Water Exploitation Index, Environmental Flow indicators, low-flow frequency, N and P concentrations in rivers, the 50-year return period river discharge as an indicator for flooding, and economic losses due to water scarcity for the agricultural sector, the industrial sector, and the public sector. Also, potential flood damage of a 100-year return period flood has been used as an indicator. This modeling environment consists of linking the agricultural CAPRI model, the land use LUMP model, the water quantity LISFLOOD model, the water quality EPIC model, the combined water quantity/quality and hydro-economic LISQUAL model and a multi-criteria optimization routine. A python interface platform (IMO) has been built to link the different models. The work was carried out in the framework of a new European Commission policy document "Blueprint to Safeguard Europe's Water Resources", COM(2012)673), launched in November 2012. Simulations have been carried out to assess the effects of water retention measures, water savings measures, and nutrient reduction measures on several hydro-chemical indicators, such as the Water Exploitation Index, Environmental Flow indicators, N and P concentrations in rivers, the 50-year return period river discharge as an indicator for flooding, and economic losses due to water scarcity for the agricultural sector, the manufacturing-industry sector, the energy-production sector and the domestic sector. Also, potential flood damage of a 100-year return period flood has been used as an indicator. The study has shown that technically this modelling software environment can deliver optimum scenario combinations of packages of measures that improve various water quantity and water quality indicators, but that additional work is needed before final conclusions can be made using the tool. Further work is necessary, especially in the economic loss estimations, the water prices and price-elasticity, as well as the implementation and maintenance costs of individual scenarios. First results and challenges will be presented and discussed.

Changing conditions on wilderness campsites: Seven case studies of trends over 13 to 32 years

Treesearch

David N. Cole

2013-01-01

This report brings together seven case studies of trends in the number and condition of wilderness campsites over periods ranging from 13 to 32 years. Case examples come from five mountainous wilderness areas in the western United States: Sequoia-Kings Canyon Wilderness in California, the Eagle Cap Wilderness in Oregon, the Frank Church-River of No Return Wilderness in...

Supporting a Deep Space Gateway with Free-Return Earth-Moon Periodic Orbits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Genova, A. L.; Dunham, D. W.; Hardgrove, C.

2018-02-01

Earth-Moon periodic orbits travel between the Earth and Moon via free-return circumlunar segments and can host a station that can provide architecture support to other nodes near the Moon and Mars while enabling science return from cislunar space.

How does rapidly changing discharge during storm events affect transient storage and channel water balance in a headwater mountain stream?

Treesearch

Adam S. Ward; Michael N. Gooseff; Thomas J. Voltz; Michael Fitzgerald; Kamini Singha; Jay P. Zarnetske

2013-01-01

Measurements of transient storage in coupled surface-water and groundwater systems are widely made during base flow periods and rarely made during storm flow periods. We completed 24 sets of slug injections in three contiguous study reaches during a 1.25 year return interval storm event (discharge ranging from 21.5 to 434 L s1 ) in a net gaining headwater stream within...

Regional Variation in Travel-related Illness acquired in Africa, March 1997–May 2011

PubMed Central

Han, Pauline V.; Vincent, Peter; von Sonnenburg, Frank; Cramer, Jakob P.; Loutan, Louis; Kain, Kevin C.; Parola, Philippe; Hagmann, Stefan; Gkrania-Klotsas, Effrossyni; Sotir, Mark; Schlagenhauf, Patricia

2014-01-01

To understand geographic variation in travel-related illness acquired in distinct African regions, we used the GeoSentinel Surveillance Network database to analyze records for 16,893 ill travelers returning from Africa over a 14-year period. Travelers to northern Africa most commonly reported gastrointestinal illnesses and dog bites. Febrile illnesses were more common in travelers returning from sub-Saharan countries. Eleven travelers died, 9 of malaria; these deaths occurred mainly among male business travelers to sub-Saharan Africa. The profile of illness varied substantially by region: malaria predominated in travelers returning from Central and Western Africa; schistosomiasis, strongyloidiasis, and dengue from Eastern and Western Africa; and loaisis from Central Africa. There were few reports of vaccine-preventable infections, HIV infection, and tuberculosis. Geographic profiling of illness acquired during travel to Africa guides targeted pretravel advice, expedites diagnosis in ill returning travelers, and may influence destination choices in tourism. PMID:24655358

Family-friendly policies: general nurses' preferences and experiences.

PubMed

Robinson, Sarah; Davey, Barbara; Murrells, Trevor

2003-01-01

While European Union policy emphasises that one of the aims of family-friendly working arrangements is to increasing gender equality, in the UK the focus has been primarily on workforce retention. Drawing on a study of Registered General Nurses who returned to work after breaks for maternity leave, this paper considers their preferences and experiences in light of current UK family-friendly policies and the implications of the findings for increasing gender equality. Questionnaires were completed by respondents in three regional health authorities and focused on the four to eight year period after qualification. The following topics were investigated: views about length of maternity break and reasons for returning to work sooner than preferred; hours sought after a return and hours obtained; the availability of preferred patterns of work and of flexible hours; retention of grade on return; the availability and use of workplace crèches, and childcare arrangements when children were unwell.

Survey of return to work of head and neck cancer survivors: A report from a tertiary cancer center in India.

PubMed

Agarwal, Jaiprakash; Krishnatry, Rahul; Chaturvedi, Pankaj; Ghosh-Laskar, Sarbani; Gupta, Tejpal; Budrukkar, Ashwani; Murthy, Vedang; Deodhar, Joyita; Nair, Deepa; Nair, Sudhir; Dikshit, Rajesh; D'Cruz, Anil K

2017-05-01

The rates and factors associated with the return to work of head and neck cancer survivors from low- and middle-income countries, such as India, are largely unknown. We conducted a preliminary cross-sectional survey of 250 consecutive eligible head and neck cancer survivors (age <60; ≥6 months posttreatment) to identify return to work rates and sociodemographic, clinical, and quality of life (QOL; European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire-Core 30-questions [EORTC-QLQ-C30] and European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire-Core 30 Head and Neck 35-questions [EORTC-QLQ-H&N35]) correlates. In our cohort, 92.4% of the patients were employed pretreatment, 65.6% and 81.2% returned to work at 6 months posttreatment and by the time of the survey (median follow-up 19 months), respectively. Family structure (<2 male children, p = .008; eldest child age <20 years, p = .04), a higher level of education (vocational or professional training, p = .013) and female sex (p = .001) were associated with higher return to work. Head and neck cancer survivors who returned to work had better global quality of life (QOL; p = .014) and less coughing (p = .001) but more problems related to sticky saliva (p = .004). Further studies are needed to address the large unmet needs regarding identification and amelioration of barriers to return to work for head and neck cancer survivors in low- and middle-income countries, such as India. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Head Neck 39: 893-899, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

An analysis of security price risk and return among publicly traded pharmacy corporations.

PubMed

Gilligan, Adrienne M; Skrepnek, Grant H

2013-01-01

Community pharmacies have been subject to intense and increasing competition in the past several decades. To determine the security price risk and rate of return of publicly traded pharmacy corporations present on the major U.S. stock exchanges from 1930 to 2009. The Center of Research in Security Prices (CRSP) database was used to examine monthly security-level stock market prices in this observational retrospective study. The primary outcome of interest was the equity risk premium, with analyses focusing upon financial metrics associated with risk and return based upon modern portfolio theory (MPT) including: abnormal returns (i.e., alpha), volatility (i.e., beta), and percentage of returns explained (i.e., adjusted R(2)). Three equilibrium models were estimated using random-effects generalized least squares (GLS): 1) the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM); 2) Fama-French Three-Factor Model; and 3) Carhart Four-Factor Model. Seventy-five companies were examined from 1930 to 2009, with overall adjusted R(2) values ranging from 0.13 with the CAPM to 0.16 with the Four-Factor model. Alpha was not significant within any of the equilibrium models across the entire 80-year time period, though was found from 1999 to 2009 in the Three- and Four-Factor models to be associated with a large, significant, and negative risk-adjusted abnormal returns of -33.84%. Volatility varied across specific time periods based upon the financial model employed. This investigation of risk and return within publicly listed pharmacy corporations from 1930 to 2009 found that substantial losses were incurred particularly from 1999 to 2009, with risk-adjusted security valuations decreasing by one-third. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

39 CFR 946.10 - Record retention.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... MAIL MATTER AND PROPERTY ACQUIRED BY THE POSTAL INSPECTION SERVICE FOR USE AS EVIDENCE § 946.10 Record retention. Records regarding property subject to this part will be retained for a period of 3 years following return of the property to its owner or a determination that the property is abandoned. ...

39 CFR 946.10 - Record retention.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... MAIL MATTER AND PROPERTY ACQUIRED BY THE POSTAL INSPECTION SERVICE FOR USE AS EVIDENCE § 946.10 Record retention. Records regarding property subject to this part will be retained for a period of 3 years following return of the property to its owner or a determination that the property is abandoned. ...

Consequences of a restrictive syringe exchange policy on utilization patterns of a syringe exchange program in Baltimore, Maryland: Implications for HIV risk

PubMed Central

Sherman, Susan G.; Patel, Shivani A.; Ramachandran, Daesha V.; Galai, Noya; Chaulk, Patrick; Serio-Chapman, Chris; Gindi, Renee M.

2016-01-01

Background Syringe distribution policies continue to be debated in many jurisdictions throughout the U.S. The Baltimore Needle and Syringe Exchange Program (NSP) operated under a 1-for-1 syringe exchange policy from its inception in 1994 through 1999, when it implemented a restrictive policy (2000–2004) that dictated less than 1-for-1 exchange for non-program syringes. Methods Data were derived from the Baltimore NSP, which prospectively collected data on all client visits. We examined the impact of this restrictive policy on program-level output measures (i.e., distributed:returned syringe ratio, client volume) before, during, and after the restrictive exchange policy. Through multiple logistic regression, we examined correlates of less than 1-for-1 exchange ratios at the client-level before and during the restrictive exchange policy periods. Results During the restrictive policy period, the average annual program-level ratio of total syringes distributed:returned dropped from 0.99 to 0.88, with a low point of 0.85 in 2000. There were substantial decreases in the average number of syringes distributed, syringes returned, the total number of clients, and new clients enrolling during the restrictive compared to the preceding period. During the restrictive period, 33,508 more syringes were returned to the needle exchange than were distributed. In the presence of other variables, correlates of less than 1-for-1 exchange ratio were being white, female, and less than 30 years old. Discussion With fewer clean syringes in circulation, restrictive policies could increase the risk of exposure to HIV among IDUs and the broader community. The study provides evidence to the potentially harmful effects of such policies. PMID:25919590

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Ethiopia and the neighboring region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayele, Atalay

2017-10-01

Seismic hazard calculation is carried out for the Horn of Africa region (0°-20° N and 30°-50°E) based on the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) method. The earthquakes catalogue data obtained from different sources were compiled, homogenized to Mw magnitude scale and declustered to remove the dependent events as required by Poisson earthquake source model. The seismotectonic map of the study area that avails from recent studies is used for area sources zonation. For assessing the seismic hazard, the study area was divided into small grids of size 0.5° × 0.5°, and the hazard parameters were calculated at the center of each of these grid cells by considering contributions from all seismic sources. Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) corresponding to 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years were calculated for all the grid points using generic rock site with Vs = 760 m/s. Obtained values vary from 0.0 to 0.18 g and 0.0-0.35 g for 475 and 2475 return periods, respectively. The corresponding contour maps showing the spatial variation of PGA values for the two return periods are presented here. Uniform hazard response spectrum (UHRS) for 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years and hazard curves for PGA and 0.2 s spectral acceleration (Sa) all at rock site are developed for the city of Addis Ababa. The hazard map of this study corresponding to the 475 return periods has already been used to update and produce the 3rd generation building code of Ethiopia.

The Future of Drought in the Southeastern U.S.: Projections from downscaled CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keellings, D.; Engstrom, J.

2017-12-01

The Southeastern U.S. has been repeatedly impacted by severe droughts that have affected the environment and economy of the region. In this study the ability of 32 downscaled CMIP5 models, bias corrected using localized constructed analogs (LOCA), to simulate historical observations of dry spells from 1950-2005 are assessed using Perkins skill scores and significance tests. The models generally simulate the distribution of dry days well but there are significant differences between the ability of the best and worst performing models, particularly when it comes to the upper tail of the distribution. The best and worst performing models are then projected through 2099, using RCP 4.5 and 8.5, and estimates of 20 year return periods are compared. Only the higher skill models provide a good estimate of extreme dry spell lengths with simulations of 20 year return values within ± 5 days of observed values across the region. Projected return values differ by model grouping, but all models exhibit significant increases.

Reliability of biologic indicators in a mail-return sterilization-monitoring service: a review of 3 years.

PubMed

Andrés, M T; Tejerina, J M; Fierro, J F

1995-12-01

Most mail-return sterilization-monitoring services use spore strips to test sterilizers in dental clinics, but factors such as delay caused by mailing to the laboratory could cause false negatives. The aims of this study were to determine the influence of poststerilization time and temperature on the biologic indicator recovery system and to evaluate sterilization failure and its possible causes in dental clinics subscribing to a mail-return sterilization-monitoring service. Spore strips used in independent tests revealed the poststerilization time and temperature after a 7-day delay to have no significant influence. Sixty-six dental clinics that received quarterly biologic indicators to evaluate the effectiveness of their sterilizers had sterilization failure rates of 28.7% in 1992, 18.1% in 1993, and 9.1% in 1994, a statistically significant decrease in sterilization failure during the 3-year period. The usual causes of failure were operator error in wrapping of instruments, loading, operating temperature, or exposure time.

Geotheral heating facilities of United Church of Christ (Congregational Church)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1981-07-01

Based on the assumptions made in this study, a geothermal system for the Congregational Church is not economically feasible at this time. A retrofit of the church for geothermal would result in a capital cost of $37,600 including the geothermal well. When this figure is considered in conjunction with the $1892 first-year savings (present fuel cost minus geothermal system O and M cost) and inflation over a 20-year period, a simple payback of 12 years results. In addition, an internal rate of return figure of 8.7 percent was generated. This indicates that the project would have to be financed atmore » less than 9 percent to be economically feasible over a 20-year period.« less

Barefoot and in a German kitchen: federal parental leave and benefit policy and the return to work after childbirth in Germany.

PubMed

Ondrich, J; Spiess, C K; Yang, Q

1996-01-01

"Since 1979 German federal maternity leave and benefit policy has given women incentives to stay at home and take care of their newborn and youngest children. In 1986 this leave and benefit policy was changed in several ways, turning it into a powerful instrument for delaying mothers' return to work after childbirth.... We estimate post childbirth return to work hazards for women during the federally protected leave protection period and immediately upon completion of this leave period. During the leave mothers are less likely to return to work the longer is the time left in the leave protection period; however, this result cannot be attributed generally to high levels of maternity benefits. When the leave protection period ends, mothers with strong labor force attachment who are still on leave return to their jobs." excerpt

Study of the National Science Foundation's South Pole Station as an analogous data base for the logistical support of a Moon laboratory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hickam, H. H., Jr.

1993-01-01

The day will come when the United States will want to return to the Earth's Moon. When that occurs, NASA may look to the Apollo program for technical and inspirational guidance. The Apollo program, however, was designed to be an end to itself--the landing of a man on the Moon and his return safely within the decade of the 1960's. When that was accomplished, the program folded because it was not self-sustaining. The next time we return to the Moon, we should base our planning on a program that is designed to be a sustained effort for an indefinite period. It is the thrust of this report that the South Pole Station of the National Science Foundation can be used to develop analogs for the construction, funding, and logistical support of a lunar base. Other analogs include transportation and national efforts versus international cooperation. A recommended lunar base using the South Pole Station as inspiration is provided, as well as details concerning economical construction of the base over a 22-year period.

Factors influencing return to work: a narrative study of women treated for breast cancer.

PubMed

Johnsson, A; Fornander, T; Rutqvist, L E; Olsson, M

2010-05-01

The purpose of this qualitative study was to identify factors contributing to a successful return to the labour market after treatment for breast cancer from the women's own perspective. The study is based on 16 narratives - open-ended, in-depth interviews - about women's experiences and thoughts from the period after breast cancer surgery when they focused on their return to work. The women were recruited from participants of a multicentre trial, which allowed comparisons across a range of adjuvant therapies. The narratives of women who worked full time at a cut-off point of 1 year after surgery are analysed separately from the narratives of women still sick-listed at that point of time. The findings show that while all the women strove to belong to the labour market, the study also reveals changes in women's perceptions of the value of employment. The quality of social support received from employers and coworkers differed between women who returned to work and those still sick-listed 1 year after breast cancer treatment. A need to design interventions focusing on the work arena of women treated for breast cancer is pointed out.

Patient satisfaction as a predictor of return-to-provider behavior: analysis and assessment of financial implications.

PubMed

Garman, Andrew N; Garcia, Joanne; Hargreaves, Marcia

2004-01-01

Although customer loyalty is frequently cited as a benefit of patient satisfaction, an empirical link between the two has not, to our knowledge, ever been statistically established in a hospital setting. The goal of the present study was to evaluate the relationship between self-reported patient satisfaction measures and subsequent return to the provider for care at a large academic medical center. Data from all adult medical patients responding to a patient satisfaction survey distributed by a large midwestern academic medical center during fiscal year 1997 (n = 1485) were analyzed. Response patterns were examined as they related to whether patients returned to the provider during the subsequent 2-year period. Analyses suggested that return-to-provider was associated with only a minority of the satisfaction items (approx. 11%). All items showing a significant relationship measured perceptions of how well physicians and nurses attended to, and provided information to, patients and their families. Although the size of these relationships was generally small, the estimated financial implications are substantial. Other implications of these findings for planning effective service improvement initiatives as well as improving patient survey design are discussed.

Comparison of clinical characteristics and laboratory findings of malaria, dengue, and enteric fever in returning travelers: 8-year experience at a referral center in Tokyo, Japan.

PubMed

Kutsuna, Satoshi; Hayakawa, Kayoko; Kato, Yasuyuki; Fujiya, Yoshihiro; Mawatari, Momoko; Takeshita, Nozomi; Kanagawa, Shuzo; Ohmagari, Norio

2015-04-01

Without specific symptoms, diagnosis of febrile illness in returning travelers is challenging. Dengue, malaria, and enteric fever are common causes of fever in returning travelers and timely and appropriate treatment is important. However, differentiation is difficult without specific diagnostic tests. A retrospective study was conducted at the National Centre for Global Health and Medicine (NCGM) from April 2005 to March 2013. Febrile travelers returning from overseas who were diagnosed with dengue, malaria, or enteric fever were included in this study. Clinical characteristics and laboratory findings were compared for each diagnosis. During the study period, 86 malaria, 85 dengue, and 31 enteric fever cases were identified. The mean age of the study cohort was 33.1 ± 12 years and 134 (66.3%) study participants were male. Asia was the most common area visited by returning travelers with fevers (89% of dengue, 18.6% of malaria, and 100% of enteric fever cases), followed by Africa (1.2% of dengue and 70.9% of malaria cases). Clinical characteristics and laboratory findings were significantly different among each group with each diagnosis. Decision tree models revealed that returning from Africa and CRP levels <10 mg/L were factors specific for diagnosis of malaria and dengue fever, respectively. Clinical manifestations, simple laboratory test results, and regions of travel are helpful to distinguish between dengue, malaria, and enteric fever in febrile returning travelers with non-specific symptoms. Copyright © 2014 Japanese Society of Chemotherapy and The Japanese Association for Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Are the Leonid Meteor Storms Coming?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yeomans, D. K.; Yau, K.; Weissman, P. R.

1995-01-01

On Nov. 17, 1996 an extraordinary Leonid meteor storm (144,000 per hour) was witnessed by observers in central and western United States. With an orbital period of 33 years, the next return to perihelion will be Feb. 28, 1998. Because the distribution of the particles flying in formation with the parent comet is poorly known, no secure predictions can be made for Leonid meteor storms in the coming years.

Earthquake hazard analysis for the different regions in and around Ağrı

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bayrak, Erdem, E-mail: erdmbyrk@gmail.com; Yilmaz, Şeyda, E-mail: seydayilmaz@ktu.edu.tr; Bayrak, Yusuf, E-mail: bayrak@ktu.edu.tr

We investigated earthquake hazard parameters for Eastern part of Turkey by determining the a and b parameters in a Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency relationship. For this purpose, study area is divided into seven different source zones based on their tectonic and seismotectonic regimes. The database used in this work was taken from different sources and catalogues such as TURKNET, International Seismological Centre (ISC), Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS) and The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) for instrumental period. We calculated the a value, b value, which is the slope of the frequency–magnitude Gutenberg–Richter relationship, from the maximum likelihoodmore » method (ML). Also, we estimated the mean return periods, the most probable maximum magnitude in the time period of t-years and the probability for an earthquake occurrence for an earthquake magnitude ≥ M during a time span of t-years. We used Zmap software to calculate these parameters. The lowest b value was calculated in Region 1 covered Cobandede Fault Zone. We obtain the highest a value in Region 2 covered Kagizman Fault Zone. This conclusion is strongly supported from the probability value, which shows the largest value (87%) for an earthquake with magnitude greater than or equal to 6.0. The mean return period for such a magnitude is the lowest in this region (49-years). The most probable magnitude in the next 100 years was calculated and we determined the highest value around Cobandede Fault Zone. According to these parameters, Region 1 covered the Cobandede Fault Zone and is the most dangerous area around the Eastern part of Turkey.« less

Impact of HMO mergers and acquisitions on financial performance.

PubMed

Weech-Maldonado, Robert

2002-01-01

This study examines the effect of health maintenance organization (HMO) mergers and acquisitions on financial performance, as indicated by cash flow returns, profitability ratios, and efficiency indicators. Pooled, cross-sectional files of financial performance data were created for HMO mergers occurring in the period of 1988 to 1994. The study uses a time-series design involving the analysis of pre- and post-acquisition financial performance measured over a period of four years. Change scores for the industry-adjusted financial performance measures were calculated and then evaluated using t-tests. The study showed that HMO mergers had a positive effect on financial performance and efficiency. This effect disappeared, however, after adjusting for HMO industry returns. Potential synergies arising from HMO mergers have been largely illusory. Mergers may have been a result of non-value enhancing motives or management overconfidence.

Design Life Level: Quantifying risk in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rootzén, Holger; Katz, Richard W.

2013-09-01

In the past, the concepts of return levels and return periods have been standard and important tools for engineering design. However, these concepts are based on the assumption of a stationary climate and do not apply to a changing climate, whether local or global. In this paper, we propose a refined concept, Design Life Level, which quantifies risk in a nonstationary climate and can serve as the basis for communication. In current practice, typical hydrologic risk management focuses on a standard (e.g., in terms of a high quantile corresponding to the specified probability of failure for a single year). Nevertheless, the basic information needed for engineering design should consist of (i) the design life period (e.g., the next 50 years, say 2015-2064); and (ii) the probability (e.g., 5% chance) of a hazardous event (typically, in the form of the hydrologic variable exceeding a high level) occurring during the design life period. Capturing both of these design characteristics, the Design Life Level is defined as an upper quantile (e.g., 5%) of the distribution of the maximum value of the hydrologic variable (e.g., water level) over the design life period. We relate this concept and variants of it to existing literature and illustrate how they, and some useful complementary plots, may be computed and used. One practically important consideration concerns quantifying the statistical uncertainty in estimating a high quantile under nonstationarity.

Return to work among breast cancer survivors: A literature review.

PubMed

Sun, Yuanlu; Shigaki, Cheryl L; Armer, Jane M

2017-03-01

Breast cancer survivors in their employment years are likely to try to go back to work after the primary treatment. Because the literature on return to work among breast cancer survivors is limited, we have undertaken a review of the literature to summarize what is known, including identifying important contributing variables and outcomes. This knowledge may be used to develop hypotheses and potential interventions to support breast cancer survivors who wish to return to work. We searched the following databases: CINAHL, MEDLINE, SCOUP, and PUBMED, within a 10-year timeframe (2004 to 2014). The majority of reviewed articles (N = 25) focused on three outcomes: return-to-work period, work ability, and work performance. The most frequently studied independent variables were collapsed into the following groups: health and well-being, symptoms and functioning, work demands and work environment, individual characteristics, and societal and cultural factors. Gaps in the literature include evidence of effective interventions to support return to work among breast cancer survivors and research to better understand the roles of government and business-related policy. All the studies reported a reduced work engagement and work ability. Employment status and work performance is associated with a combination of individual factors, work environment, culture, and resources. Significant gaps are apparent in the literature addressing breast cancer survivorship and return to work. This is a complex problem and it will likely require interdisciplinary research teams to develop effective and feasible interventions for this population.

Return-to-Work Program for Injured Workers: Factors of Successful Return to Employment.

PubMed

Awang, Halimah; Shahabudin, Sharifah Muhairah; Mansor, Norma

2016-11-01

This study examined the factors of successful return to employment among participants in the return to work program (RTW) following work-related injury. Data were obtained from the Social Security Organization database containing 9850 injured workers who underwent RTW in 2010 to 2013. About 65% had successfully returned to employment. Significant factors of successful return include gender, employer interest, motivation, age, intervention duration, and type of injury. Male and motivated employees were more likely to return to employment compared with female and unmotivated employees, respectively. Participants from interested employers were 23.22 times more likely to return to work than those from uninterested employers, whereas participants whose intervention period exceeded 5 months were 41% less likely to return to work compared with those whose intervention period was within 3 months. Appropriate strategy and enhanced collaboration between the stakeholders would improve the proportion of successful return to employment. © 2016 APJPH.

Evaluation of Bayesian estimation of a hidden continuous-time Markov chain model with application to threshold violation in water-quality indicators

USGS Publications Warehouse

Deviney, Frank A.; Rice, Karen; Brown, Donald E.

2012-01-01

Natural resource managers require information concerning  the frequency, duration, and long-term probability of occurrence of water-quality indicator (WQI) violations of defined thresholds. The timing of these threshold crossings often is hidden from the observer, who is restricted to relatively infrequent observations. Here, a model for the hidden process is linked with a model for the observations, and the parameters describing duration, return period, and long-term probability of occurrence are estimated using Bayesian methods. A simulation experiment is performed to evaluate the approach under scenarios based on the equivalent of a total monitoring period of 5-30 years and an observation frequency of 1-50 observations per year. Given constant threshold crossing rate, accuracy and precision of parameter estimates increased with longer total monitoring period and more-frequent observations. Given fixed monitoring period and observation frequency, accuracy and precision of parameter estimates increased with longer times between threshold crossings. For most cases where the long-term probability of being in violation is greater than 0.10, it was determined that at least 600 observations are needed to achieve precise estimates.  An application of the approach is presented using 22 years of quasi-weekly observations of acid-neutralizing capacity from Deep Run, a stream in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia. The time series also was sub-sampled to simulate monthly and semi-monthly sampling protocols. Estimates of the long-term probability of violation were unbiased despite sampling frequency; however, the expected duration and return period were over-estimated using the sub-sampled time series with respect to the full quasi-weekly time series.

Regularized joint inverse estimation of extreme rainfall amounts in ungauged coastal basins of El Salvador

USGS Publications Warehouse

Friedel, M.J.

2008-01-01

A regularized joint inverse procedure is presented and used to estimate the magnitude of extreme rainfall events in ungauged coastal river basins of El Salvador: Paz, Jiboa, Grande de San Miguel, and Goascoran. Since streamflow measurements reflect temporal and spatial rainfall information, peak-flow discharge is hypothesized to represent a similarity measure suitable for regionalization. To test this hypothesis, peak-flow discharge values determined from streamflow recurrence information (10-year, 25-year, and 100-year) collected outside the study basins are used to develop regional (country-wide) regression equations. Peak-flow discharge derived from these equations together with preferred spatial parameter relations as soft prior information are used to constrain the simultaneous calibration of 20 tributary basin models. The nonlinear range of uncertainty in estimated parameter values (1 curve number and 3 recurrent rainfall amounts for each model) is determined using an inverse calibration-constrained Monte Carlo approach. Cumulative probability distributions for rainfall amounts indicate differences among basins for a given return period and an increase in magnitude and range among basins with increasing return interval. Comparison of the estimated median rainfall amounts for all return periods were reasonable but larger (3.2-26%) than rainfall estimates computed using the frequency-duration (traditional) approach and individual rain gauge data. The observed 25-year recurrence rainfall amount at La Hachadura in the Paz River basin during Hurricane Mitch (1998) is similar in value to, but outside and slightly less than, the estimated rainfall confidence limits. The similarity in joint inverse and traditionally computed rainfall events, however, suggests that the rainfall observation may likely be due to under-catch and not model bias. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2007.

27 CFR 53.153 - Time for filing returns.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... and Other Administrative Provisions of Special Application to Manufacturers Taxes § 53.153 Time for... period. (b) Monthly, semimonthly and annual returns—(1) Monthly returns. Each return required to be made under § 53.151(b) for a monthly period shall be filed not later than the 15th day of the month following...

Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes over China as Measured by 50-yr Return Values and Periods Based on a CMIP5 Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Ying; Gao, Xuejie; Giorgi, Filippo; Zhou, Botao; Shi, Ying; Wu, Jie; Zhang, Yongxiang

2018-04-01

Future changes in the 50-yr return level for temperature and precipitation extremes over mainland China are investigated based on a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The following indices are analyzed: TXx and TNn (the annual maximum and minimum of daily maximum and minimum surface temperature), RX5day (the annual maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation) and CDD (maximum annual number of consecutive dry days). After first validating the model performance, future changes in the 50-yr return values and return periods for these indices are investigated along with the inter-model spread. Multi-model median changes show an increase in the 50-yr return values of TXx and a decrease for TNn, more specifically, by the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5, the present day 50-yr return period of warm events is reduced to 1.2 yr, while extreme cold events over the country are projected to essentially disappear. A general increase in RX5day 50-yr return values is found in the future. By the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5, events of the present RX5day 50-yr return period are projected to reduce to < 10 yr over most of China. Changes in CDD-50 show a dipole pattern over China, with a decrease in the values and longer return periods in the north, and vice versa in the south. Our study also highlights the need for further improvements in the representation of extreme events in climate models to assess the future risks and engineering design related to large-scale infrastructure in China.

The efficacy of periodic +Gz exposure in the prevention of bedrest induced orthostatic intolerance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ludwig, D. A.; Vernikos, J.; Duvoisin, M. R; Stinn, J. L.

1992-01-01

What is the most efficient dosage of periodic exposure to positive 1G(z) during microgravity to maintain a functional upright position after returning to a positive 1G(z) environment? The answer has implications for the type of countermeasures astronauts will be required to perform during long term space flight. Methods: Nine males were subjected to four different positive 1G exposure protocols plus a control protocol ('zero G(z)') during four days of continuous bedrest. The four positive 1G(z) exposures consisted of periodic standing or walking, each for a total period of two or four hours. Each subject was returned for bedrest on five different occasions over a period of approximately one year to obtain data on each of the nine subjects across all four positive 1G(z) treatments and the control. A 30 min tilt test was used to measure orthostatic response during pre and post bedrest. Results: In terms of survival rate (percentage of subjects who did not faint after 30 sec of tilt), four hours of intermittent standing was the only protocol that maintained a rate comparable to pre bedrest levels (87.5 percent). Although the other three positive 1G(z) protocols performed better than the 'zero G(z) control (22.2 percent), only the four hour standing returned post bedrest survival rates to pre bedrest levels. Conclusions: The results will need to be evaluated with regards to a variety of other physiological systems which are known to decondition during microgravitry.

Examining the impact of mental illness and substance use on recidivism in a county jail.

PubMed

Wilson, Amy Blank; Draine, Jeffrey; Hadley, Trevor; Metraux, Steve; Evans, Arthur

2011-01-01

This paper describes the recidivism patterns over a 4 year period for a cohort of people admitted to a large US urban jail system in 2003 and analyzes how these patterns vary based on presence of mental illness and substance abuse. Jail detention and behavioral health service records were merged for all admissions to a large urban jail system in 2003 (N=24,290). Descriptive statistics were used to analyze the recidivism patterns for people admitted to jail in 2003 (N=20,112) over a four year period. Recidivism patterns of people without mental illness or substance use disorders were compared with people with serious mental illness, substance abuse disorders, and dual diagnoses. These analyses found that over half of the people who returned to jail during the 4 year follow-up period did so in the first year. This finding did not differ by any diagnostic category. Analysis of the number of people readmitted to the jail found that people who had a diagnosis of mental illness alone had the lowest number of readmissions to jail in the 4 years after release with 50% having at least one readmission after their initial release. People with dual diagnoses, in contrast, had the highest number of readmissions to jail during the study time frame, with 68% having at least one readmission during the 4 years after release. Substance use is a driving force behind the recidivism of people with mental illness leaving a US urban jail. These findings illustrate the importance of developing interventions that provide timely access to intensive co-occurring substance abuse and mental health treatment during the immediate period after release that are capable of addressing both individual and environment factors that promote the return to drug use after release. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Economic Return From the Women’s Health Initiative Estrogen Plus Progestin Clinical Trial

PubMed Central

Roth, Joshua A.; Etzioni, Ruth; Waters, Teresa M.; Pettinger, Mary; Rossouw, Jacques E.; Anderson, Garnet L.; Chlebowski, Rowan T.; Manson, JoAnn E.; Hlatky, Mark; Johnson, Karen C.; Ramsey, Scott D.

2014-01-01

Background The findings of the Women’s Health Initiative (WHI) estrogen plus progestin (E+P) trial led to a substantial reduction in use of combined hormone therapy (cHT) among postmenopausal women in the United States. The economic effect of this shift has not been evaluated relative to the trial’s $260 million cost (2012 U.S. dollars). Objective To estimate the economic return from the WHI E+P trial. Design Decision model to simulate health outcomes for a “WHI scenario” with observed cHT use and a “no-WHI scenario” with cHT use extrapolated from the pretrial period. Data Sources Primary analyses of WHI outcomes, peer-reviewed literature, and government sources. Target Population Postmenopausal women in the United States, aged 50 to 79 years, who did not have a hysterectomy. Time Horizon 2003 to 2012. Perspective Payer. Intervention Combined hormone therapy. Outcome Measures Disease incidence, expenditure, quality-adjusted life-years, and net economic return. Results of Base-Case Analysis The WHI scenario resulted in 4.3 million fewer cHT users, 126 000 fewer breast cancer cases, 76 000 fewer cardiovascular disease cases, 263 000 more fractures, 145 000 more quality-adjusted life-years, and expenditure savings of $35.2 billion. The corresponding net economic return of the trial was $37.1 billion ($140 per dollar invested in the trial) at a willingness-to-pay level of $100 000 per quality-adjusted life-year. Results of Sensitivity Analysis The 95% CI for the net economic return of the trial was $23.1 to $51.2 billion. Limitation No evaluation of indirect costs or outcomes beyond 2012. Conclusion The WHI E+P trial made high-value use of public funds with a substantial return on investment. These results can contribute to discussions about the role of public funding for large, prospective trials with high potential for public health effects. Primary Funding Source National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute. PMID:24798522

Peak discharge, flood frequency, and peak stage of floods on Big Cottonwood Creek at U.S. Highway 50 near Coaldale, Colorado, and Fountain Creek below U.S. Highway 24 in Colorado Springs, Colorado, 2016

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kohn, Michael S.; Stevens, Michael R.; Mommandi, Amanullah; Khan, Aziz R.

2017-12-14

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Colorado Department of Transportation, determined the peak discharge, annual exceedance probability (flood frequency), and peak stage of two floods that took place on Big Cottonwood Creek at U.S. Highway 50 near Coaldale, Colorado (hereafter referred to as “Big Cottonwood Creek site”), on August 23, 2016, and on Fountain Creek below U.S. Highway 24 in Colorado Springs, Colorado (hereafter referred to as “Fountain Creek site”), on August 29, 2016. A one-dimensional hydraulic model was used to estimate the peak discharge. To define the flood frequency of each flood, peak-streamflow regional-regression equations or statistical analyses of USGS streamgage records were used to estimate annual exceedance probability of the peak discharge. A survey of the high-water mark profile was used to determine the peak stage, and the limitations and accuracy of each component also are presented in this report. Collection and computation of flood data, such as peak discharge, annual exceedance probability, and peak stage at structures critical to Colorado’s infrastructure are an important addition to the flood data collected annually by the USGS.The peak discharge of the August 23, 2016, flood at the Big Cottonwood Creek site was 917 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) with a measurement quality of poor (uncertainty plus or minus 25 percent or greater). The peak discharge of the August 29, 2016, flood at the Fountain Creek site was 5,970 ft3/s with a measurement quality of poor (uncertainty plus or minus 25 percent or greater).The August 23, 2016, flood at the Big Cottonwood Creek site had an annual exceedance probability of less than 0.01 (return period greater than the 100-year flood) and had an annual exceedance probability of greater than 0.005 (return period less than the 200-year flood). The August 23, 2016, flood event was caused by a precipitation event having an annual exceedance probability of 1.0 (return period of 1 year, or the 1-year storm), which is a statistically common (high probability) storm. The Big Cottonwood Creek site is downstream from the Hayden Pass Fire burn area, which dramatically altered the hydrology of the watershed and caused this statistically rare (low probability) flood from a statistically common (high probability) storm. The peak flood stage at the cross section closest to the U.S. Highway 50 culvert was 6,438.32 feet (ft) above the North American Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88).The August 29, 2016, flood at the Fountain Creek site had an estimated annual exceedance probability of 0.5505 (return period equal to the 1.8-year flood). The August 29, 2016, flood event was caused by a precipitation event having an annual exceedance probability of 1.0 (return period of 1 year, or the 1-year storm). The peak stage during this flood at the cross section closest to the U.S. Highway 24 bridge was 5,832.89 ft (NAVD 88).Slope-area indirect discharge measurements were carried out at the Big Cottonwood Creek and Fountain Creek sites to estimate peak discharge of the August 23, 2016, flood and August 29, 2016, flood, respectively. The USGS computer program Slope-Area Computation Graphical User Interface was used to compute the peak discharge by adding the surveyed cross sections with Manning roughness coefficient assignments to the high-water marks. The Manning roughness coefficients for each cross section were estimated in the field using the Cowan method.

Return to Play After Forearm and Hand Injuries in the National Basketball Association

PubMed Central

Morse, Kyle W.; Hearns, Krystle A.; Carlson, Michelle Gerwin

2017-01-01

Background: Hand injuries can result in significant time away from competition for professional basketball players. Time to return to play after hand injuries in elite athletes has not been well described. Purpose: To report the return to play from metacarpal fractures, phalangeal fractures, and thumb ligament tears in National Basketball Association (NBA) players over a 5-year period. Study Design: Descriptive epidemiology study. Methods: The NBA transaction report was analyzed from January 2009 to May 2014. Players were identified if they were added to the inactive list (IL), missed games due to their injury, or underwent surgery as a result of hand injury. Number of games missed due to injury, days spent on the IL, and age at injury were calculated by injury type and location. Results: One hundred thirty-seven injuries were identified: 39 injuries to the hand and 98 injuries to the finger. Three major injury patterns were identified and analyzed: metacarpal fractures (n = 26), phalangeal fractures (n = 33), and thumb ligament tears (n = 9). The type of injury sustained affected return to play (P < .05). All thumb ligament tears required surgery and had the longest return to play of 67.5 ± 17.7 days (P < .05). The return to play for surgically treated metacarpal fractures (56.7 ± 26.3 days) was significantly greater than nonsurgically treated metacarpal fractures (26.3 ± 12.1 days; P < .01). Return to play for surgically repaired phalangeal fractures (46.2 ± 10.8 days) trended greater but was not significantly different than phalangeal fractures treated nonsurgically (33.3 ± 28.5 days; P = .21). Conclusion: Hand injuries in professional basketball players can lead to prolonged periods of time away from competition, especially after surgery. This study provides guidelines on expected return to play in the NBA after these common hand injuries. PMID:28251168

Techno-economic evaluation of a combined bioprocess for fermentative hydrogen production from food waste.

PubMed

Han, Wei; Fang, Jun; Liu, Zhixiang; Tang, Junhong

2016-02-01

In this study, the techno-economic evaluation of a combined bioprocess based on solid state fermentation for fermentative hydrogen production from food waste was carried out. The hydrogen production plant was assumed to be built in Hangzhou and designed for converting 3 ton food waste per day into hydrogen. The total capital cost (TCC) and the annual production cost (APC) were US$583092 and US$88298.1/year, respectively. The overall revenue after the tax was US$146473.6/year. The return on investment (ROI), payback period (PBP) and internal rate of return (IRR) of the plant were 26.75%, 5 years and 24.07%, respectively. The results exhibited that the combined bioprocess for hydrogen production from food waste was feasible. This is an important study for attracting investment and industrialization interest for hydrogen production from food waste in the industrial scale. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of wave and surge atlas for the design and protection of coastal bridges in south Louisiana - phase 2, tech summary.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-08-01

The first phase of this project, documented in LTRC Final Report 528, developed meteorological/ : oceanographic (met/ocean) data for the 100-year storm return period in south Louisiana and presented the : data in a GIS platform known as the Wave and ...

The Adolescentizing of the GED

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rachal, John R.; Bingham, Millard J.

2004-01-01

The changing demographic population of GED test-takers from the period of returning World War II veterans to today's younger, recent high school dropouts invites debate as to whether GED instruction should utilize methods of adult education. The growth trends in the U. S. from 1989 to 2001 indicate increasing numbers of 16- and 17-year-olds…

Reintegration into Mainstream? 'Gi'e Us Peace!'.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lloyd, Gwynedd; Padfield, Pauline

1996-01-01

A Scottish study of 615 pupils in 49 alternative day and residential schools found that over a two-year period, only 21 were successfully returned to the mainstream. Reasons for this finding include resistance of mainstream schools to reintegration; lack of financial support; family attitudes; sex differences in student placement; and the presence…

77 FR 23247 - Notice of Debarment

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-04-18

... the schools and libraries universal service support mechanism (or ``E-Rate Program'') for a period of three years. The Bureau takes this action to protect the E-Rate Program from waste, fraud and abuse.... March 15, 2012 DA 12-409 VIA CERTIFIED MAIL RETURN RECEIPT REQUESTED AND E-MAIL Dr. Dennis L. Bruno, c/o...

Impacts of Return-to-Work Type and Period on Job Retention in Workers with Occupational Injuries and Diseases

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Background Despite the necessity of job retention in achieving return-to-work (RTW) goals, many workers leave their jobs after returning to work. The objective of this study was to examine the impacts of RTW type and period on job retention in Korean workers with occupational injuries and diseases. Methods Data were derived from the Panel Study of Worker's Compensation Insurance, including data from 2,000 systemically sampled workers who had finished recuperation in 2012; three waves of survey data were included in the analyses. Workers who returned to work (n = 1,610) were included in the analysis of the relationship between RTW type and job retention, and 664 workers who returned to their original workplaces were included in the analysis of the relationship between RTW period and job retention. The participants completed a questionnaire, and administrative data were provided by workers' compensation insurance. Results A Cox proportional-hazards regression analysis showed an increased hazard ratio (HR) for non-retention of 2.66 (95% confidence interval, 2.11–3.35) in reemployed workers compared to that in workers returning to their original workplaces. Among workers returning to their original workplaces, HRs for non-retention were increased in workers with a RTW period of 13–24 months (3.03 [1.52–6.04]) and > 24 months (5.33 [2.14–13.25]) compared to workers with a RTW period of ≤ 3 months. Conclusion RTW type and period were significantly related to job retention, suggesting that policies for promoting job retention rate should be implemented. PMID:29215811

Impacts of Return-to-Work Type and Period on Job Retention in Workers with Occupational Injuries and Diseases.

PubMed

Jeong, Inchul; Park, Jae Bum; Kim, Hyoung Ryoul; Yoon, Jin Ha; Won, Jong Uk; Roh, Jaehoon

2018-01-01

Despite the necessity of job retention in achieving return-to-work (RTW) goals, many workers leave their jobs after returning to work. The objective of this study was to examine the impacts of RTW type and period on job retention in Korean workers with occupational injuries and diseases. Data were derived from the Panel Study of Worker's Compensation Insurance, including data from 2,000 systemically sampled workers who had finished recuperation in 2012; three waves of survey data were included in the analyses. Workers who returned to work (n = 1,610) were included in the analysis of the relationship between RTW type and job retention, and 664 workers who returned to their original workplaces were included in the analysis of the relationship between RTW period and job retention. The participants completed a questionnaire, and administrative data were provided by workers' compensation insurance. A Cox proportional-hazards regression analysis showed an increased hazard ratio (HR) for non-retention of 2.66 (95% confidence interval, 2.11-3.35) in reemployed workers compared to that in workers returning to their original workplaces. Among workers returning to their original workplaces, HRs for non-retention were increased in workers with a RTW period of 13-24 months (3.03 [1.52-6.04]) and > 24 months (5.33 [2.14-13.25]) compared to workers with a RTW period of ≤ 3 months. RTW type and period were significantly related to job retention, suggesting that policies for promoting job retention rate should be implemented. © 2018 The Korean Academy of Medical Sciences.

Failure to Return for Posttest Counseling and HIV Test Results at the Prevention and Voluntary Testing and Counseling Centers of Douala, Cameroon: An Evaluation of a Routine Five-Year Program.

PubMed

Ngangue, Patrice; Bedard, Emmanuelle; Ngueta, Gerard; Adiogo, Dieudonné; Gagnon, Marie-Pierre

2016-01-01

This study examined the magnitude and time trends in failure to return (FTR) rates and the relation between FTR and individual characteristics, tests procedures, waiting period for the results, and HIV test results among people who were screened for HIV in the prevention and voluntary testing and counseling centers (PVTCCs) of six district hospitals of the city of Douala in Cameroon, between January 2009 and December 2013. It was a retrospective analysis of medical records. Among the 32,020 analyzed records, the failure to return (FTR) rate was 14.3%. Overall, people aged 50 years and over, those tested between 2011 and 2012, and those tested in the PVTCC of Bonassama were less likely to return for their results. Significant factors associated with FTR included being a housewife, having a positive/undetermined/requiring confirmation result, and provider-initiated testing and counseling (PITC). There was an increasing trend for FTR in the PVTCCs of Bonassama, New-Bell, Nylon, and Cité des Palmiers. HIV testing and counseling services in Douala district hospitals must be reorganized such that individuals tested for HIV receive their results on the same day of the test. Also counselors need to better alert clients concerning the importance of returning for their test results.

Failure to Return for Posttest Counseling and HIV Test Results at the Prevention and Voluntary Testing and Counseling Centers of Douala, Cameroon: An Evaluation of a Routine Five-Year Program

PubMed Central

Ngangue, Patrice; Bedard, Emmanuelle; Ngueta, Gerard; Adiogo, Dieudonné; Gagnon, Marie-Pierre

2016-01-01

This study examined the magnitude and time trends in failure to return (FTR) rates and the relation between FTR and individual characteristics, tests procedures, waiting period for the results, and HIV test results among people who were screened for HIV in the prevention and voluntary testing and counseling centers (PVTCCs) of six district hospitals of the city of Douala in Cameroon, between January 2009 and December 2013. It was a retrospective analysis of medical records. Among the 32,020 analyzed records, the failure to return (FTR) rate was 14.3%. Overall, people aged 50 years and over, those tested between 2011 and 2012, and those tested in the PVTCC of Bonassama were less likely to return for their results. Significant factors associated with FTR included being a housewife, having a positive/undetermined/requiring confirmation result, and provider-initiated testing and counseling (PITC). There was an increasing trend for FTR in the PVTCCs of Bonassama, New-Bell, Nylon, and Cité des Palmiers. HIV testing and counseling services in Douala district hospitals must be reorganized such that individuals tested for HIV receive their results on the same day of the test. Also counselors need to better alert clients concerning the importance of returning for their test results. PMID:26925261

Reproductive and productive performances of Santa Inês ewes submitted to breeding in different periods of the Amazonian humid tropical climate.

PubMed

Soares, Felipe Nogueira; Oliveira, Maria Emilia Franco; Padilha-Nakaghi, Luciana Cristina; de Oliveira, Luís Guilherme; Feliciano, Marcus Antônio Rossi; de Oliveira, Felipe Brener Bezerra; Teixeira, Pedro Paulo Maia; Vicente, Wilter Ricardo Russiano; Faturi, Cristian; Rodrigues, Luiz Fernando de Souza

2015-12-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate the reproductive and productive performance of Santa Inês ewes bred at different times of the year in humid tropical climate. One hundred and forty-eight Santa Inês ewes were grouped according to the time of the year of their breeding season (i.e., mating period) (dry/wet, wet, wet/dry, and dry season). The service type was natural mating and the ewes and rams were kept together every night for 45 days. Reproductive efficiency was assessed by service, pregnancy, lambing, prolificacy, twinning, pregnancy loss, weaning, and lamb mortality rates. Ewes were weighed at the beginning and at the end of the breeding season and before and after parturition, and sequential weighing of the lambs was performed (at birth, 15, 30, 60, and 90 days). Reproductive efficiency index (number of lambs weaned/total of served ewes) and productive efficiency (kg of weaned lamb/kg of served or lambed ewes) were calculated. All ewes expressed estrus early in the breeding season; however, a higher percentage (53.5 and 7.1 % at 30 and 45 days, respectively) of ewes returned to estrus during the wet/dry period. The lower rates (13.9 %) of return to estrus at 30 days were during the wet season (P < 0.05). There were no (P > 0.05) effects of breeding seasons on the remaining reproductive rates. Ewes that lambed during the wet/dry transition period weighted less, before (40.5 ± 2.5 kg) and after (38.6 ± 1.6 kg) parturition, than those of other groups (P < 0.05). Lamb weight at birth did not vary between groups, however, weight at weaning was higher (15.6 ± 2.1 kg) in lambs born during the wet season (P < 0.05). The reproductive efficiency index was lower (0.66) when the breeding season took place during the dry/wet period (P < 0.05). Productive rates were significantly higher (0.29 and 0.33 for kg of weaned lamb/kg of served and lambed ewes, respectively; P < 0.05) in ewes served in the dry season. The reproductive performance of Santa Inês ewes was not significantly influenced by the period of the year in which the breeding seasons took place, allowing for four breeding seasons a year in the Amazon region. Variations between periods in return to estrus rates, weight of ewes close to parturition and lamb weight at weaning indicate that climate changes can also affect reproductive rates.

Enterprise size and return to work after stroke.

PubMed

Hannerz, Harald; Ferm, Linnea; Poulsen, Otto M; Pedersen, Betina Holbæk; Andersen, Lars L

2012-12-01

It has been hypothesised that return to work rates among sick-listed workers increases with enterprise size. The aim of the present study was to estimate the effect of enterprise size on the odds of returning to work among previously employed stroke patients in Denmark, 2000-2006. We used a prospective design with a 2 year follow-up period. The study population consisted of 13,178 stroke patients divided into four enterprise sizes categories, according to the place of their employment prior to the stroke: micro (1-9 employees), small (10-49 employees), medium (50-249 employees) and large (>250 employees). The analysis was based on nationwide data on enterprise size from Statistics Denmark merged with data from the Danish occupational hospitalisation register. We found a statistically significant association (p = 0.034); each increase in enterprise size category was followed by an increase in the estimated odds of returning to work. The chances of returning to work after stroke increases as the size of enterprise increases. Preventive efforts and research aimed at finding ways of mitigating the effect are warranted.

An Update on the Quirks of Pulsating, Accreting White Dwarfs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szkody, Paula; Mukadam, Anjum S.; Gänsicke, Boris T.; Hermes, J. J.; Toloza, Odette

2015-06-01

At the 18th European White Dwarf Workshop, we reported results for several dwarf novae containing pulsating white dwarfs that had undergone an outburst in 2006-2007. HST and optical data on the white dwarfs in GW Lib, EQ Lyn and V455 And all showed different behaviors in the years following their outbursts. We continued to follow these objects for the last 2 years, providing timescales of 6-7 years past outburst. All three reached their optical quiescent values within 4 years but pulsational stability has not returned. EQ Lyn showed its pre-outburst pulsation period after 3 years, but it continues to show photometric variability that alternates between pulsation and disk superhump periods while remaining at quiescence. V455 And has almost reached its pre-outburst pulsation period, while GW Lib still remains heated and with a different pulsation spectrum than at quiescence. These results indicate that asteroseismology provides a unique picture of the effects of outburst heating on the white dwarf.

Modeling of Coastal Inundation, Storm Surge, and Relative Sea-Level Rise at Naval Station Norfolk, Norfolk, Virginia, U.S.A.

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-01-01

of 2 m. ADDITIONAL INDEX WORDS: Nearshore hydrodynamic modeling, waves, synthetic tropical storms , extratropical storms , Hurricane Isabel, land...an increase in SLR and coastal storms , including hurricanes (tropical storms ) and winter storms ( extratropical storms ), will increase the risk of... storms ) corresponding to 50-year and 100-year return periods and a most probable winter storm ( extratropical ) that occurred in October 1982 (Burks-Copes

Wenatchee River, Washington, Water Temperature Modeling and Assessment Using Remotely Sensed Thermal Infrared and Instream Recorded Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cristea, N. C.; Burges, S. J.

2004-12-01

The stream water spatial and temporal temperature patterns of the Wenatchee River, WA are assessed based on temperature data recorded by instream data loggers in the dry season of 2002 and thermal infrared imagery from August 16th 2002. To gain insights into the possible thermal behavior of the river, the stream temperature model Qual2K (Chapra and Pelletier, 2003) is extended beyond its calibration (10-16 August 2002) and confirmation (9-11 September 2002) periods for use with different meteorological, shade and flow conditions. The temperature longitudinal profile of the Wenatchee River is influenced by the temperature regime in Lake Wenatchee, the source of the Wenatchee River. Model simulations performed at 7-day average with 2-year return period flow conditions show that the potential (maximum average across all reaches) temperature (the temperature that would occur under natural conditions) is about 19.8 deg. C. For the 7-day average with 10-year return period flow conditions the potential temperature increases to about 21.2 deg. C. The simulation results show that under normal flow and meteorological conditions the water temperature exceeds the current water quality standards. Model simulations performed under the 7-day average with 10-year return period flow conditions and a climate change scenario show that the average potential temperature across all reaches can increase by as much as 1.3 deg. C compared to the case where climate change impact is not taken into account. Thermal infrared (TIR) derived stream temperature data were useful for describing spatial distribution patterns of the Wenatchee River water temperature. The TIR and visible band images are effective tools to map cold water refugia for fish and to detect regions that can be improved for fish survival. The images collected during the TIR survey and the TIR derived stream temperature longitudinal profile helps pinpoint additional instream monitoring locations that avoid regions of backwater, cool or warm pockets or regions affected by tributary influence, that are inappropriate for stream temperature monitoring. Groundwater input is difficult to detect from the TIR images in the case of a relatively large river such the Wenatchee River.

26 CFR 1.443-1 - Returns for periods of less than 12 months.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

....443-1 Section 1.443-1 Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY (CONTINUED) INCOME TAX (CONTINUED) INCOME TAXES Accounting Periods § 1.443-1 Returns for periods of less than 12...-2. The computation of the tax for a short period required to effect a change of annual accounting...

The Tail Exponent for Stock Returns in Bursa Malaysia for 2003-2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rusli, N. H.; Gopir, G.; Usang, M. D.

2010-07-01

A developed discipline of econophysics that has been introduced is exhibiting the application of mathematical tools that are usually applied to the physical models for the study of financial models. In this study, an analysis of the time series behavior of several blue chip and penny stock companies in Main Market of Bursa Malaysia has been performed. Generally, the basic quantity being used is the relative price changes or is called the stock price returns, contains daily-sampled data from the beginning of 2003 until the end of 2008, containing 1555 trading days recorded. The aim of this paper is to investigate the tail exponent in tails of the distribution for blue chip stocks and penny stocks financial returns in six years period. By using a standard regression method, it is found that the distribution performed double scaling on the log-log plot of the cumulative probability of the normalized returns. Thus we calculate α for a small scale return as well as large scale return. Based on the result obtained, it is found that the power-law behavior for the probability density functions of the stock price absolute returns P(z)˜z-α with values lying inside and outside the Lévy stable regime with values α>2. All the results were discussed in detail.

Attrition of Nonprior-Service Reservists in the Army National Guard and Army Reserve

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-10-01

for the Decline in Infant Mortality in Peninsular Malaysia , 1946-1975? The Rand Corporation, N-2166-WB/RF/FF, June 1984. DaVanzo, Julie S., and Peter A...four months to over one year, depending on the MOS. The marginal cost of the training, including military pay during the training period, can vary from...training, including military pay during the training period, can vary from $4000 to over $20,000 per individual. The return from this training

Prey fish returned to Forster's tern colonies suggest spatial and temporal differences in fish composition and availability.

PubMed

Peterson, Sarah H; Ackerman, Joshua T; Eagles-Smith, Collin A; Herzog, Mark P; Hartman, C Alex

2018-01-01

Predators sample the available prey community when foraging; thus, changes in the environment may be reflected by changes in predator diet and foraging preferences. We examined Forster's tern (Sterna forsteri) prey species over an 11-year period by sampling approximately 10,000 prey fish returned to 17 breeding colonies in south San Francisco Bay, California. We compared the species composition among repeatedly-sampled colonies (≥ 4 years), using both relative species abundance and the composition of total dry mass by species. Overall, the relative abundances of prey species at seven repeatedly-sampled tern colonies were more different than would be expected by chance, with the most notable differences in relative abundance observed between geographically distant colonies. In general, Mississippi silverside (Menidia audens) and topsmelt silverside (Atherinops affinis) comprised 42% of individuals and 40% of dry fish mass over the study period. Three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) comprised the next largest proportion of prey species by individuals (19%) but not by dry mass (6%). Five additional species each contributed ≥ 4% of total individuals collected over the study period: yellowfin goby (Acanthogobius flavimanus; 10%), longjaw mudsucker (Gillichthys mirabilis; 8%), Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii; 6%), northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax; 4%), and staghorn sculpin (Leptocottus armatus; 4%). At some colonies, the relative abundance and biomass of specific prey species changed over time. In general, the abundance and dry mass of silversides increased, whereas the abundance and dry mass of three-spined stickleback and longjaw mudsucker decreased. As central place foragers, Forster's terns are limited in the distance they forage; thus, changes in the prey species returned to Forster's tern colonies suggest that the relative availability of some fish species in the environment has changed, possibly in response to alteration of the available habitat.

Automatic Monitoring System Design and Failure Probability Analysis for River Dikes on Steep Channel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Yin-Lung; Lin, Yi-Jun; Tung, Yeou-Koung

2017-04-01

The purposes of this study includes: (1) design an automatic monitoring system for river dike; and (2) develop a framework which enables the determination of dike failure probabilities for various failure modes during a rainstorm. The historical dike failure data collected in this study indicate that most dikes in Taiwan collapsed under the 20-years return period discharge, which means the probability of dike failure is much higher than that of overtopping. We installed the dike monitoring system on the Chiu-She Dike which located on the middle stream of Dajia River, Taiwan. The system includes: (1) vertical distributed pore water pressure sensors in front of and behind the dike; (2) Time Domain Reflectometry (TDR) to measure the displacement of dike; (3) wireless floating device to measure the scouring depth at the toe of dike; and (4) water level gauge. The monitoring system recorded the variation of pore pressure inside the Chiu-She Dike and the scouring depth during Typhoon Megi. The recorded data showed that the highest groundwater level insides the dike occurred 15 hours after the peak discharge. We developed a framework which accounts for the uncertainties from return period discharge, Manning's n, scouring depth, soil cohesion, and friction angle and enables the determination of dike failure probabilities for various failure modes such as overtopping, surface erosion, mass failure, toe sliding and overturning. The framework was applied to Chiu-She, Feng-Chou, and Ke-Chuang Dikes on Dajia River. The results indicate that the toe sliding or overturning has the highest probability than other failure modes. Furthermore, the overall failure probability (integrate different failure modes) reaches 50% under 10-years return period flood which agrees with the historical failure data for the study reaches.

Prey fish returned to Forster’s tern colonies suggest spatial and temporal differences in fish composition and availability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, Sarah; Ackerman, Joshua T.; Eagles-Smith, Collin A.; Herzog, Mark; Hartman, C. Alex

2018-01-01

Predators sample the available prey community when foraging; thus, changes in the environment may be reflected by changes in predator diet and foraging preferences. We examined Forster’s tern (Sterna forsteri) prey species over an 11-year period by sampling approximately 10,000 prey fish returned to 17 breeding colonies in south San Francisco Bay, California. We compared the species composition among repeatedly-sampled colonies (≥ 4 years), using both relative species abundance and the composition of total dry mass by species. Overall, the relative abundances of prey species at seven repeatedly-sampled tern colonies were more different than would be expected by chance, with the most notable differences in relative abundance observed between geographically distant colonies. In general, Mississippi silverside (Menidia audens) and topsmelt silverside (Atherinops affinis) comprised 42% of individuals and 40% of dry fish mass over the study period. Three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) comprised the next largest proportion of prey species by individuals (19%) but not by dry mass (6%). Five additional species each contributed ≥ 4% of total individuals collected over the study period: yellowfin goby (Acanthogobius flavimanus; 10%), longjaw mudsucker (Gillichthys mirabilis; 8%), Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii; 6%), northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax; 4%), and staghorn sculpin (Leptocottus armatus; 4%). At some colonies, the relative abundance and biomass of specific prey species changed over time. In general, the abundance and dry mass of silversides increased, whereas the abundance and dry mass of three-spined stickleback and longjaw mudsucker decreased. As central place foragers, Forster’s terns are limited in the distance they forage; thus, changes in the prey species returned to Forster’s tern colonies suggest that the relative availability of some fish species in the environment has changed, possibly in response to alteration of the available habitat.

Performance Metrics in Professional Baseball Pitchers before and after Surgical Treatment for Neurogenic Thoracic Outlet Syndrome.

PubMed

Thompson, Robert W; Dawkins, Corey; Vemuri, Chandu; Mulholland, Michael W; Hadzinsky, Tyler D; Pearl, Gregory J

2017-02-01

High-performance throwing athletes may be susceptible to the development of neurogenic thoracic outlet syndrome (NTOS). This condition can be career-threatening but the outcomes of treatment for NTOS in elite athletes have not been well characterized. The purpose of this study was to utilize objective performance metrics to evaluate the impact of surgical treatment for NTOS in Major League Baseball (MLB) pitchers. Thirteen established MLB pitchers underwent operations for NTOS between July 2001 and July 2014. For those returning to MLB, traditional and advanced (PitchF/x) MLB performance metrics were acquired from public databases for various time-period scenarios before and after surgery, with comparisons made using paired t-tests, Wilcoxon matched-pair signed-rank tests, and Kruskal-Wallis analysis of variance. Ten of 13 pitchers (77%) achieved a sustained return to MLB, with a mean age of 30.2 ± 1.4 years at the time of surgery and 10.8 ± 1.5 months of postoperative rehabilitation before the return to MLB. Pre- and postoperative career data revealed no significant differences for 15 traditional pitching metrics, including earned run average (ERA), fielding independent pitching, walks plus hits per inning pitched (WHIP), walks per 9 innings, and strikeouts to walk ratio (SO/BB). There were also no significant differences between the 3 years before and the 3 years after surgical treatment. Using PitchF/x data for 72 advanced metrics and 25 different time-period scenarios, the highest number of significant relationships (n = 18) was observed for the 8 weeks before/12 weeks after scenario. In this analysis, 54 (75%) measures were unchanged (including ERA, WHIP, and SO/BB) and 14 (19%) were significantly improved, while only 4 (6%) were significantly decreased (including hard pitch maximal velocity 93.1 ± 1.0 vs. 92.5 ± 0.9 miles/hr, P = 0.047). Six pitchers remained active in MLB during the study period, while the other 4 had retired due to factors or injuries unrelated to NTOS. Objective performance metrics demonstrate that pitchers returning to MLB after surgery for NTOS have had capabilities equivalent to or better than before treatment. Thoracic outlet decompression coupled with an ample period of postoperative rehabilitation can provide effective treatment for professional baseball pitchers with career-threatening NTOS. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Episodic foresight beyond the very next event in 3- and 4-year-old children.

PubMed

Boden, Hannah; Labuschagne, Lisa G; Hinten, Ashley E; Scarf, Damian

2017-11-01

Testing episodic foresight in children generally involves presenting them with a problem in one location (e.g., Room A) and, after a spending a delay in a different location, telling them they will be returning to Room A. Before they go, children are presented with a number of items, one of which will allow them to solve the problem in Room A. At around 3 to 4 years of age children display episodic foresight, selecting the item that will allow them to solve the problem. To date, however, no study has assessed whether 3- and 4-year-old children can plan beyond the very next event, selecting the correct item when there is a delay before returning to Room A. Here, we show that 3- and 4-year-old children can pass when a delay is imposed but that their performance is significantly worse than when they are planning for an immediate event. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Transaction fees and optimal rebalancing in the growth-optimal portfolio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Yu; Medo, Matúš; Zhang, Liang; Zhang, Yi-Cheng

2011-05-01

The growth-optimal portfolio optimization strategy pioneered by Kelly is based on constant portfolio rebalancing which makes it sensitive to transaction fees. We examine the effect of fees on an example of a risky asset with a binary return distribution and show that the fees may give rise to an optimal period of portfolio rebalancing. The optimal period is found analytically in the case of lognormal returns. This result is consequently generalized and numerically verified for broad return distributions and returns generated by a GARCH process. Finally we study the case when investment is rebalanced only partially and show that this strategy can improve the investment long-term growth rate more than optimization of the rebalancing period.

Patterns of illness in travelers visiting Mexico and Central America: the GeoSentinel experience.

PubMed

Flores-Figueroa, Jose; Okhuysen, Pablo C; von Sonnenburg, Frank; DuPont, Herbert L; Libman, Michael D; Keystone, Jay S; Hale, Devon C; Burchard, Gerd; Han, Pauline V; Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Freedman, David O

2011-09-01

Mexico and Central America are important travel destinations for North American and European travelers. There is limited information on regional differences in travel related morbidity. We describe the morbidity among 4779 ill travelers returned from Mexico and Central America who were evaluated at GeoSentinel network clinics during December 1996 to February 2010. The most frequent presenting syndromes included acute and chronic diarrhea, dermatologic diseases, febrile systemic illness, and respiratory disease. A higher proportion of ill travelers from the United States had acute diarrhea, compared with their Canadian and European counterparts (odds ratio, 1.9; P < .0001). During the 2009 H1N1 influenza outbreak from March 2009 through February 2010, the proportionate morbidity (PM) associated with respiratory illnesses in ill travelers increased among those returned from Mexico, compared with prior years (196.0 cases per 1000 ill returned travelers vs 53.7 cases per 1000 ill returned travelers; P < .0001); the PM remained constant in the rest of Central America (57.3 cases per 1000 ill returned travelers). We identified 50 travelers returned from Mexico and Central America who developed influenza, including infection due to 2009 H1N1 strains and influenza-like illness. The overall risk of malaria was low; only 4 cases of malaria were acquired in Mexico (PM, 2.2 cases per 1000 ill returned travelers) in 13 years, compared with 18 from Honduras (PM, 79.6 cases per 1000 ill returned travelers) and 14 from Guatemala (PM, 34.4 cases per 1000 ill returned travelers) during the same period. Plasmodium vivax malaria was the most frequent malaria diagnosis. Travel medicine practitioners advising and treating travelers visiting these regions should dedicate special attention to vaccine-preventable illnesses and should consider the uncommon occurrence of acute hepatitis A, leptospirosis, neurocysticercosis, acute Chagas disease, onchocerciasis, mucocutaneous leishmaniasis, neurocysticercosis, HIV, malaria, and brucellosis.

Comet nucleus and asteroid sample return missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Melton, Robert G.; Thompson, Roger C.; Starchville, Thomas F., Jr.; Adams, C.; Aldo, A.; Dobson, K.; Flotta, C.; Gagliardino, J.; Lear, M.; Mcmillan, C.

1992-01-01

During the 1991-92 academic year, the Pennsylvania State University has developed three sample return missions: one to the nucleus of comet Wild 2, one to the asteroid Eros, and one to three asteroids located in the Main Belt. The primary objective of the comet nucleus sample return mission is to rendezvous with a short period comet and acquire a 10 kg sample for return to Earth. Upon rendezvous with the comet, a tethered coring and sampler drill will contact the surface and extract a two-meter core sample from the target site. Before the spacecraft returns to Earth, a monitoring penetrator containing scientific instruments will be deployed for gathering long-term data about the comet. A single asteroid sample return mission to the asteroid 433 Eros (chosen for proximity and launch opportunities) will extract a sample from the asteroid surface for return to Earth. To limit overall mission cost, most of the mission design uses current technologies, except the sampler drill design. The multiple asteroid sample return mission could best be characterized through its use of future technology including an optical communications system, a nuclear power reactor, and a low-thrust propulsion system. A low-thrust trajectory optimization code (QuickTop 2) obtained from the NASA LeRC helped in planning the size of major subsystem components, as well as the trajectory between targets.

Exploring the Processes of Self-Development Encountered by Adult Returners to Higher Education: A Lifespan Psychology Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mercer, Jenny

2010-01-01

Evidence indicates that non-traditional adult returners describe returning to education as a period of self-development and growth. However, lifespan psychology perspectives also show that successful growth and change involves periods of conflict. This paper will explore both the nature of self-development and conflicts experienced by a sample of…

17 CFR Appendix B to Part 4 - Adjustments for Additions and Withdrawals in the Computation of Rate of Return

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... Return Method Rate of return for a period may be calculated by computing the net performance divided by the beginning net asset value for each trading day in the period and compounding each daily rate of... commodity pool operator or commodity trading advisor may present to the Commission proposals regarding any...

17 CFR Appendix B to Part 4 - Adjustments for Additions and Withdrawals in the Computation of Rate of Return

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... Return Method Rate of return for a period may be calculated by computing the net performance divided by the beginning net asset value for each trading day in the period and compounding each daily rate of... commodity pool operator or commodity trading advisor may present to the Commission proposals regarding any...

17 CFR Appendix B to Part 4 - Adjustments for Additions and Withdrawals in the Computation of Rate of Return

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... Return Method Rate of return for a period may be calculated by computing the net performance divided by the beginning net asset value for each trading day in the period and compounding each daily rate of... commodity pool operator or commodity trading advisor may present to the Commission proposals regarding any...

17 CFR Appendix B to Part 4 - Adjustments for Additions and Withdrawals in the Computation of Rate of Return

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... Return Method Rate of return for a period may be calculated by computing the net performance divided by the beginning net asset value for each trading day in the period and compounding each daily rate of... commodity pool operator or commodity trading advisor may present to the Commission proposals regarding any...

17 CFR Appendix B to Part 4 - Adjustments for Additions and Withdrawals in the Computation of Rate of Return

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... Return Method Rate of return for a period may be calculated by computing the net performance divided by the beginning net asset value for each trading day in the period and compounding each daily rate of... commodity pool operator or commodity trading advisor may present to the Commission proposals regarding any...

Detecting Amino Acids on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bada, Jeffrey L.; McDonald, Gene D.

1996-01-01

Understanding the events that led to the origin of life on Earth is complicated by the lack of geological evidence from the period around four billion years (4 Gyr) ago when the transition from prebiotic chemistry to biochemistry is believed to be occurred. Although erosion and plate tectonics have since erased the terrestrial geological record from the time of the origin of life, there is possibility that information about this period of Earth history may still be preserved on Mars. A major goal of the NASA Space Exploration Program is to search for evidence of abiotic chemistry and extinct or extant life on Mars. During the next decade, spacecraft will orbit Mars, land on the surface, and return with surface samples for analysis. The question is what compounds should we search for, either directly on the planet or in samples returned to Earth, that will answer unambiguously whether abiotic and/or biotic organic molecules are present.

Community-Based Aftercare and Return to Custody in a National Sample of Substance-Abusing Women Offenders

PubMed Central

Matheson, Flora I.; Grant, Brian A.

2011-01-01

Objectives. We evaluated the effectiveness of the Community Relapse Prevention and Maintenance (CRPM) program, developed by Correctional Service Canada to better meet the needs of women offenders with drug problems. Methods. Using survival analysis, we investigated the association between exposure and nonexposure to CRPM and return to custody among a national sample of women offenders released from 1 of 6 federal institutions across Canada during the period May 1, 1998 to August 31, 2007. Results. After control for other risk factors, women who were not exposed to CRPM were 10 times more likely than were women exposed to CRPM to return to custody 1 year after release from prison, with more than a third returning to prison within the first 6 months. Conclusions. Aftercare is a critical component of a woman's support system after she leaves prison. Strategies that improve access to community aftercare are imperative for improving the life chances and health of these women. PMID:21493930

[Estimation of the asymptomatic latent period of alveolar hydatidosis in patients infected in foreign endemic areas].

PubMed

Doi, Rikuo

2007-03-01

Alveolar hydatidosis (AH) is a parasitic disease with an extremely long latent period which has an important role in the endemic of human AH. The individual and average latent periods of human AH were estimated from the case histories of 19 male patients who were infected in foreign endemic areas and diagnosed surgically and pathologically as having AH after returning to Honshu, mainland of Japan. The beginning (A) and the end (C) of stay in foreign endemic areas of AH, and the midpoint (B) between (A) and (C), the time of onset of symptoms (D) and death (E) of AH were determined in the case reports. The period (D-B) from the midpoint (B) to the onset of symptoms (D) was considered as an individual latent period of AH, and the average latent period was estimated from D-B periods. The individual latent periods ranged from 3 to 44 years, and the average was 20 +/- 10 (mean +/- SD) years in the 19 cases. The average latent period was longer in 7 surviving cases (26 +/- 12) than in 12 fatal cases (16 +/- 7) at the publication of the case reports, but there was no statistically significant difference between them. The estimated latent period in this report was very close to that by Doi et al. (2000), and the traditional 5-15 years should be changed to 7-35 years.

Windsurfing vs kitesurfing: Injuries at the North Sea over a 2-year period.

PubMed

van Bergen, Christiaan J A; Commandeur, Joris P; Weber, Rik I K; Haverkamp, Daniel; Breederveld, Roelf S

2016-12-18

To analyze all windsurfing and kitesurfing (kiteboarding) injuries presented at our coastal hospital over a 2-year period. Twenty-five windsurfers (21 male; aged 31 ± 8 years) and 32 kitesurfers (23 male; aged 29 ± 11 years) presented at our hospital during the 2-year study period. Various injury data were recorded, including transport to hospital and treatment. After a median follow-up of 16 mo (range, 7-33 mo), 18 windsurfers (72%) and 26 kitesurfers (81%) completed questionnaires on the trauma mechanisms, the use of protective gear, time spent on windsurfing or kitesurfing, time to return to sports, additional injuries, and chronic disability. Most patients sustained minor injuries but severe injuries also occurred, including vertebral and tibial plateau fractures. The lower extremities were affected the most, followed by the head and cervical spine, the upper extremities, and the trunk. The injury rates were 5.2 per 1000 h of windsurfing and 7.0 per 1000 h of kitesurfing ( P = 0.005). The injury severity was the same between groups ( P = 1.0). Less than 30% of the study population used protective gear. Kitesurfers had a higher number of injuries, and required transport by ambulance, inpatient hospital stay and operative treatment more often than windsurfers, but these differences were not statistically significant ( P > 0.05). The median time to return to windsurfing and kitesurfing was 5 and 4 wk, respectively ( P = 0.79). Approximately one-third of the patients in each group experienced chronic symptoms. Kitesurfing results in a significantly higher injury rate than windsurfing in the same environmental conditions but the severity of the injuries does not differ.

Analysis of flood-magnitude and flood-frequency data for streamflow-gaging stations in the Delaware and North Branch Susquehanna River Basins in Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roland, Mark A.; Stuckey, Marla H.

2007-01-01

The Delaware and North Branch Susquehanna River Basins in Pennsylvania experienced severe flooding as a result of intense rainfall during June 2006. The height of the flood waters on the rivers and tributaries approached or exceeded the peak of record at many locations. Updated flood-magnitude and flood-frequency data for streamflow-gaging stations on tributaries in the Delaware and North Branch Susquehanna River Basins were analyzed using data through the 2006 water year to determine if there were any major differences in the flood-discharge data. Flood frequencies for return intervals of 2, 5, 10, 50, 100, and 500 years (Q2, Q5, Q10, Q50, Q100, and Q500) were determined from annual maximum series (AMS) data from continuous-record gaging stations (stations) and were compared to flood discharges obtained from previously published Flood Insurance Studies (FIS) and to flood frequencies using partial-duration series (PDS) data. A Wilcoxon signed-rank test was performed to determine any statistically significant differences between flood frequencies computed from updated AMS station data and those obtained from FIS. Percentage differences between flood frequencies computed from updated AMS station data and those obtained from FIS also were determined for the 10, 50, 100, and 500 return intervals. A Mann-Kendall trend test was performed to determine statistically significant trends in the updated AMS peak-flow data for the period of record at the 41 stations. In addition to AMS station data, PDS data were used to determine flood-frequency discharges. The AMS and PDS flood-frequency data were compared to determine any differences between the two data sets. An analysis also was performed on AMS-derived flood frequencies for four stations to evaluate the possible effects of flood-control reservoirs on peak flows. Additionally, flood frequencies for three stations were evaluated to determine possible effects of urbanization on peak flows. The results of the Wilcoxon signed-rank test showed a significant difference at the 95-percent confidence level between the Q100 computed from AMS station data and the Q100 determined from previously published FIS for 97 sites. The flood-frequency discharges computed from AMS station data were consistently larger than the flood discharges from the FIS; mean percentage difference between the two data sets ranged from 14 percent for the Q100 to 20 percent for the Q50. The results of the Mann-Kendall test showed that 8 stations exhibited a positive trend (i.e., increasing annual maximum peaks over time) over their respective periods of record at the 95-percent confidence level, and an additional 7 stations indicated a positive trend, for a total of 15 stations, at a confidence level of greater than or equal to 90 percent. The Q2, Q5, Q10, Q50, and Q100 determined from AMS and PDS data for each station were compared by percentage. The flood magnitudes for the 2-year return period were 16 percent higher when partial-duration peaks were incorporated into the analyses, as opposed to using only the annual maximum peaks. The discharges then tended to converge around the 5-year return period, with a mean collective difference of only 1 percent. At the 10-, 50-, and 100-year return periods, the flood magnitudes based on annual maximum peaks were, on average, 6 percent higher compared to corresponding flood magnitudes based on partial-duration peaks. Possible effects on flood peaks from flood-control reservoirs and urban development within the basin also were examined. Annual maximum peak-flow data from four stations were divided into pre- and post-regulation periods. Comparisons were made between the Q100 determined from AMS station data for the periods of record pre- and post-regulation. Two stations showed a nearly 60- and 20-percent reduction in the 100-year discharges; the other two stations showed negligible differences in discharges. Three stations within urban basins were compared to 38 stations

School outcomes for minority-group adolescent mothers at 28 to 36 months postpartum: a longitudinal follow-up.

PubMed

Leadbeater, B J

1996-01-01

This study examines the educational status of 120 adolescent postpartum women in the US during 1987-88. Mothers were 14-19 years old at delivery. 53.1% were African American and 42.5% were Puerto Rican. All but 2 deliveries were first births. 71.7% lived with their own mothers. 64.6% came from families on welfare. The average number of years of completed schooling was 9.5. At 28-36 months postpartum the average age was 19.7 years, 52.4% lived with their mothers, 52.4% lived off their mother's public assistance, and 17.9% supported themselves. 7.9% were married. Interviews were conducted at 3-4 weeks, 6 months, 12 months, and 28-36 months postpartum. 94% had completed interviews by 12 months, and 71% had completed interviews by 28-36 months. 33% of mothers had attended school or graduated through the pregnancy and the last follow-up period. 19% who were not in school at the first birth returned or graduated by 28-36 months postpartum. 12% dropped out before the pregnancy and never returned; 36% dropped out during the pregnancy and never returned. Greater risk of delayed grade placement by 28-36 months was significantly associated with age at delivery and reports of stressful life events 1 year postpartum. Mothers who were more grade-delayed reported more depressive symptoms, more repeat pregnancies, and lower work plans. At 1 year postpartum, school returners reported significantly fewer stresses and more child care support than dropouts. 41% of the mothers had a new mate. 25.7% reported a close relationship with the baby's father. About 80% reported problems with the fathers such as drugs, promiscuity, jail, death, machismo, or physical abuse. Only 39% of attenders had a repeat pregnancy compared to 68% of returners, 93% of dropouts during pregnancy, and 70% of dropouts before pregnancy. Only half of the mothers were likely to pursue educational and occupational goals.

Absence of back to school peaks in human rhinovirus detections and respiratory symptoms in a cohort of children with asthma.

PubMed

Stelzer-Braid, Sacha; Tovey, Euan R; Willenborg, Christiana M; Toelle, Brett G; Ampon, Rose; Garden, Frances L; Oliver, Brian G; Strachan, Roxanne; Belessis, Yvonne; Jaffe, Adam; Reddel, Helen K; Crisafulli, Daniel; Marks, Guy B; Rawlinson, William D

2016-04-01

Much of what is known about the seasonality of human rhinovirus (hRV) infections has been learned from the study of acute asthma exacerbations presenting to emergency care, including those among children at the start of the school term. Much less is known about the patterns of hRVs in the community. In this study, viruses and day-to-day symptoms of asthma and colds were monitored twice weekly in 67 children with asthma aged 5-12 years, over a 15 month period in Sydney, Australia. Overall hRV was detected in 314/1232 (25.5%) of nasal wash samples and 142/1231 (11.5%) of exhaled breath samples; of these, 231 and 24 respectively were genotyped. HRVs were detected with similar prevalence rate throughout the year, including no peak in hRV prevalence following return to school. No peaks were seen in asthma and cold symptoms using twice-weekly diary records. However, over the same period in the community, there were peaks in asthma emergency visits both at a large local hospital and in state-wide hospitalizations, following both return to school (February) and in late autumn (May) in children of the same age. This study suggests that hRV infections are common throughout the year among children, and differences in virus prevalence alone may not account for peaks in asthma symptoms. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Active screening and surveillance in the United Kingdom for Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in returning travellers and pilgrims from the Middle East: a prospective descriptive study for the period 2013-2015.

PubMed

Atabani, Sowsan F; Wilson, Steven; Overton-Lewis, Clare; Workman, Judith; Kidd, I Michael; Petersen, Eskild; Zumla, Alimuddin; Smit, Erasmus; Osman, Husam

2016-06-01

Over 25000 pilgrims from the UK visit Saudi Arabia every year for the Umrah and Hajj pilgrimages. The recent outbreak of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in South Korea and the continuing reports of MERS-CoV cases from Saudi Arabia highlight the need for active surveillance for MERS-CoV in returning pilgrims or travellers from the Middle East. Public Health England Birmingham Laboratory (PHEBL) is one of a few selected UK public health laboratories responsible for MERS-CoV screening in travellers returning to the UK from the Middle East who present to hospital with severe respiratory symptoms. The results of the PHEBL MERS-CoV screening and surveillance over the past 3 years is presented. UK travellers/pilgrims who returned from the Middle East and presented to a hospital with respiratory symptoms were studied over the period February 1, 2013 to December 31, 2015. Patients with respiratory symptoms, who satisfied the Public Health England MERS-CoV case algorithm, were tested for MERS-CoV and other respiratory tract viruses on admission to hospital. Two hundred and two patients suspected of having MERS-CoV were tested. None of them had a laboratory-confirmed MERS-CoV infection. A viral aetiology was detected in half (50.3%) of the cases, with rhinoviruses, influenza A (H1N1 and H3N2), and influenza B being most frequent. Peak testing occurred following the annual Hajj season and in other periods of raised national awareness. Respiratory tract infections in travellers/pilgrims returning to the UK from the Middle East are mainly due to rhinoviruses, influenza A, and influenza B. Whilst MERS-CoV was not detected in the 202 patients studied, heightened awareness of the possibility of MERS-CoV and continuous proactive surveillance are essential to rapidly identify cases of MERS-CoV and other seasonal respiratory tract viruses such as avian influenza, in patients presenting to hospital. Early identification and isolation may prevent outbreaks in nosocomial settings. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Reduced ability to work both before and after infectious spondylodiscitis in working-age patients.

PubMed

Kehrer, Michala; Hallas, Jesper; Bælum, Jesper; Jensen, Thøger Gorm; Pedersen, Court; Lassen, Annmarie Touborg

2017-02-01

As little is known about the ability to work in patients with infectious spondylodiscitis, we compared the relation between the workforce before infection with that of a reference population and described the patients' ability to work after infection including predictors of return to work (RTW). We identified all patients aged 20-57 years treated for infectious spondylodiscitis January 1994-May 2009 at hospitals in Funen County, Denmark. The work status of each week from 2 years before until 2 years after index date was compared with that of a reference population. Time to RTW was described using cumulative incidence curves and univariate cause-specific Cox-regression analyses (hazard ratios - HRs). Of 112 identified patients, 8 (7%) died within the first year and 48 (43%) were part of the workforce 1 year before index. Through the entire observation period, the patients had lower affiliation to the workforce compared with the reference population. During the observation period, the proportion of patients on permanent disability pension increased from 24% to 38% and the proportion of self-supporters decreased from 58% to 33%. Seventy-three per cent of the patients being part of the workforce 1 year before index returned to the workforce within the 2 year follow-up. Main predictor of RTW was being part of the workforce 1 year before index (HR = 7.8; CI: 2.4-25.3). Patients with infectious spondylodiscitis were less likely to be part of the workforce before infection compared with a reference population and infection further lowered their ability to RTW.

Probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Sinai Peninsula, Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deif, A.; Abou Elenean, K.; El Hadidy, M.; Tealeb, A.; Mohamed, A.

2009-09-01

Sinai experienced the largest Egyptian earthquake with moment magnitude (Mw) 7.2 in 1995 in the Gulf of Aqaba, 350 km from Cairo. It is characterized by the presence of many tourist projects in addition to different natural resources. The aim of the current study is to present, for the first time, the probabilistic spectral hazard maps for Sinai. Revised earthquake catalogues for Sinai and its surroundings, from 112 BC to 2006 AD with magnitude equal or greater than 3.0, are used to calculate seismic hazard in the region of interest between 27°N and 31.5°N and 32°E and 36°E. We declustered these catalogues to include only independent events. The catalogues were tested for the completeness of different magnitude ranges. 28 seismic source zones are used to define the seismicity. The recurrence rates and the maximum earthquakes across these zones were also determined from these modified catalogues. Strong ground motion relations for rock are used to produce 5% damped spectral acceleration values for four different periods (0.2, 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 s) to define the uniform response spectra at each site (grid of 0.2° × 0.2° all over the area). Maps showing spectral acceleration values at 0.2, 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 s periods as well as peak ground acceleration (PGA) for the return period of 475 years (equivalent to 90% probability on non-exceedence in 50 years) are presented. In addition, Uniform Hazard Spectra (UHS) at 25 different periods for the four main cities (Hurghda, Sharm El-Sheikh, Nuweibaa and Suez) are graphed. The highest hazard is found in the Gulf of Aqaba with maximum spectral accelerations 356 cm s-2 at a period of 0.22 s for a return period of 475 years.

September in the Skies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Riddle, Bob

2004-01-01

This school year begins with no planets visible in the evenings, and it will remain this way until November when Mercury returns to the evening skies. For a period of several days, starting on September 8, you can follow the waning crescent Moon in the early morning as it passes Saturn, Venus, the bright star Regulus, and Mercury. On the morning…

Caring for Kids. A Critical Study of Urban School Leavers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Altenbaugh, Richard J.; And Others

The study reported concentrated on school leavers in Pittsburgh (Pennsylvania) who returned (dropbacks) to Job Corps Programs over an 8-year period. Interviews with 100 dropbacks explored who left school, why they left school, what caused them to come back, and the kinds of interventions that might succeed with other students. Part 1 provides a…

27 CFR 25.164 - Quarterly and semimonthly returns.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... BUREAU, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY LIQUORS BEER Tax on Beer Preparation and Remittance of Tax Returns... on beer (unless prepaid) by return on Form 5000.24. The brewer shall file Form 5000.24 as a return... file a return on Form 5000.24 for each return period even though no beer was removed for consumption or...

27 CFR 25.164 - Quarterly and semimonthly returns.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... BUREAU, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY LIQUORS BEER Tax on Beer Preparation and Remittance of Tax Returns... on beer (unless prepaid) by return on Form 5000.24. The brewer shall file Form 5000.24 as a return... file a return on Form 5000.24 for each return period even though no beer was removed for consumption or...

27 CFR 25.164 - Quarterly and semimonthly returns.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... BUREAU, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY ALCOHOL BEER Tax on Beer Preparation and Remittance of Tax Returns... on beer (unless prepaid) by return on Form 5000.24. The brewer shall file Form 5000.24 as a return... file a return on Form 5000.24 for each return period even though no beer was removed for consumption or...

27 CFR 25.164 - Quarterly and semimonthly returns.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... BUREAU, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY ALCOHOL BEER Tax on Beer Preparation and Remittance of Tax Returns... on beer (unless prepaid) by return on Form 5000.24. The brewer shall file Form 5000.24 as a return... file a return on Form 5000.24 for each return period even though no beer was removed for consumption or...

27 CFR 25.164 - Quarterly and semimonthly returns.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... BUREAU, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY LIQUORS BEER Tax on Beer Preparation and Remittance of Tax Returns... on beer (unless prepaid) by return on Form 5000.24. The brewer shall file Form 5000.24 as a return... file a return on Form 5000.24 for each return period even though no beer was removed for consumption or...

The operative treatment of pressure sores in the pelvic region: A 10-year period overview

PubMed Central

Jósvay, János; Klauber, András; Both, Béla; Kelemen, Péter B.; Varga, Zsombor Z.; Pesthy, Pál Cs.

2015-01-01

Context Pelvic region pressure sores often develop following spinal cord injury. Surgery is often necessary for long standing, large-sized pressure sores not responding to conservative treatment. Authors analyze their results of a 10-year period, and identify factors contributing to the reduction of the recurrence rate. Methods A total of 119 pressure sores were operated on 98 patients in two institutions during a 10-year period (1 January 2003 to 31 December 2012). The encountered perioperative complications are summarized, and the recurrence rate is analyzed with a patient follow-up questionnaire. Results We experienced 15 perioperative complications (12.6%). All complications were fully resolved by conservative treatment. Fifty-eight returned patient replies were processed. The average follow-up time after surgery was 5.2 years. The recurrence rate was 5.47%. Conclusion The strict adherence to surgical indications, full patient compliance, specialized pre- and post-operative patient care, our routinely used preferred surgical method, all contribute to a low post-operative complication rate, long-term flap survival, and an extended recurrence free period. PMID:25299238

The operative treatment of pressure sores in the pelvic region: A 10-year period overview.

PubMed

Jósvay, János; Klauber, András; Both, Béla; Kelemen, Péter B; Varga, Zsombor Z; Pesthy, Pál Cs

2015-07-01

Pelvic region pressure sores often develop following spinal cord injury. Surgery is often necessary for long standing, large-sized pressure sores not responding to conservative treatment. Authors analyze their results of a 10-year period, and identify factors contributing to the reduction of the recurrence rate. A total of 119 pressure sores were operated on 98 patients in two institutions during a 10-year period (1 January 2003 to 31 December 2012). The encountered perioperative complications are summarized, and the recurrence rate is analyzed with a patient follow-up questionnaire. We experienced 15 perioperative complications (12.6%). All complications were fully resolved by conservative treatment. Fifty-eight returned patient replies were processed. The average follow-up time after surgery was 5.2 years. The recurrence rate was 5.47%. The strict adherence to surgical indications, full patient compliance, specialized pre- and post-operative patient care, our routinely used preferred surgical method, all contribute to a low post-operative complication rate, long-term flap survival, and an extended recurrence free period.

Temporal and Spatial Wildfire Dynamics of Northern Siberia: Larch Forests and Insect Outbreak Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kharuk, Viacheslav; Antamoshkina, Olga; Ponomarev, Eugene

2017-04-01

Wildfire number and burned area temporal dynamics within all of Siberia and along a south-north transect in central Siberia (45 - 73°N) were studied based on NOAA/AVHRR and Terra/MODIS data and field measurements for the period since 1996. In addition, fire return interval along the south-north transect was analyzed. Third, pest outbreak (Siberian silkmoth) impact on the wildfires was studied. Both, number of forest fires and burned area in Siberia increased during recent decades. Significant correlations were found between forest fires, burned areas and air temperature (r = 0.5) and drought index (SPEI) (r = -0.43). Within larch stands along the transect wildfire frequency was strongly correlated with incoming solar radiation (r = 0.91). Fire danger period length decreased linearly from south to north along the transect. Fire return interval increased from 80 years at 62°N to 200 years at the Arctic Circle (66°33'N), and to about 300 years near the northern limit of closed forest stands ( 71+°N). That increase was negatively correlated with incoming solar radiation (r = -0.95). Siberian silkmoth outbreaks leads to an order of magnitude increase in burned area and fire frequency. Multiple fires turns former "dark needle conifer" taiga into grass and bush communities for decades.

Career redevelopment programmes for inactive nurses in Japan.

PubMed

Tanaka, Sachiko; Serizawa, Takako; Sakaguchi, Chizuru

2008-12-01

The purpose of this paper is to examine the challenges and problems in using career redevelopment programmes and individual hospital programmes to prepare inactive nurses to re-enter into the workforce in Japan. It is critical to supply sufficient skilled health human resources for medical care. Although, Japan has a mandatory retraining programme for supporting nurses to return to the workplace after a career break, it is unclear to what extent there are benefits to nurses from these programmes. The research of career redevelopment programme was undertaken in three administrative divisions' nurse centres in local prefecture A, B and C. A survey of nurses participating in the programme running in T Hospital was also conducted. The issues examined were the background and motivations of participants, the length of career break, the percentages returning to work and the effectiveness of each programme. The average age of participants was 40 years, ranging widely from the 20-60 years. Local prefecture A tended to have narrower age range than others, namely from the 30-50 years. The average period of career break was around eight years at two of three. Length of experience was quite varied from entry level to 20 or 30 years in nursing. Feedback from nurses in the case study T Hospital suggests that the most effective ways of providing support through the programme was to meet the need for continuing support, including working styles after return to work and using the resources programme in their own area of domicile. In the potential return of the nurse, the following are important: (i) job support system by using social resources effectively in the community level; and (ii) introduction of diverse working styles that take account of varying work-life balance, as well as childcare support, by using existing facilities or human resources.

Geospatial Tools for Prevention of Urban Floods Case Study: River of EL Maleh (city of Mohammedia - Morocco)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaabane, M. S.; Abouali, N.; Boumeaza, T.; Zahouily, M.

2017-11-01

Today, the prevention and the risk management occupy an important part of public policy activities and are considered as major components in the process of sustainable development of territories. Due to the expansion of IT processes, in particular the geomatics sciences, decision-makers are increasingly requesting for digital tools before, during and after the risks of natural disasters. Both, the geographic information system (GIS) and the remote sensing are considered as geospatial and fundamental tools which help to understand the evolution of risks, to analyze their temporality and to make the right decisions. The historic events (on 1996, 2002 and 2010) which struck the city of Mohammedia and having caused the consequent damage to vital infrastructure and private property, require a thorough and rational analyze to benefit from it and well manage the floods phenomena. This article present i) the contribution of the geospatial tools for the floods simulation of Oued of el Maleh city at various return periods. These tools allow the demarcation of flood-risk areas and so to make floods simulations in several scenarios (decadal flood, 20-year flood, 50-year flood, 100-year flood, 500-year flood & also millennial flood) and besides (ii) present a synthesis map combining the territorial stakes superposed on the flood scenarios at different periods of return.

26 CFR 1.1502-79A - Separate return years generally applicable for consolidated return years beginning before January...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... December 31, 1967. (ii) P, S, and T join in the filing of a consolidated return for 1968, which return... attributable to P and S. Even though S was not in existence in 1966, the portion attributable to S can be... return year and to the extent that it was absorbed in P's 1966 separate return year. The portion of the...

Performance outcomes of anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction in the National Basketball Association.

PubMed

Busfield, Benjamin T; Kharrazi, F Daniel; Starkey, Chad; Lombardo, Stephen J; Seegmiller, Jeffrey

2009-08-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the rate of return to play and to quantify the effect on the basketball player's performance after surgical reconstruction of the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL). Surgical injuries involving the ACL were queried for a 10-year period (1993-1994 season through 2004-2005 season) from the database maintained by the National Basketball Association (NBA). Standard statistical categories and player efficiency rating (PER), a measure that accounts for positive and negative playing statistics, were calculated to determine the impact of the injury on player performance relative to a matched comparison group. Over the study period, 31 NBA players had 32 ACL reconstructions. Two patients were excluded because of multiple ACL injuries, one was excluded because he never participated in league play, and another was the result of nonathletic activity. Of the 27 players in the study group, 6 (22%) did not return to NBA competition. Of the 21 players (78%) who did return to play, 4 (15%) had an increase in the preinjury PER, 5 (19%) remained within 1 point of the preinjury PER, and the PER decreased by more than 1 point after return to play in 12 (44%). Although decreases occurred in most of the statistical categories for players returning from ACL surgery, the number of games played, field goal percentage, and number of turnovers per game were the only categories with a statistically significant decrease. Players in the comparison group had a statistically significant increase in the PER over their careers, whereas the study group had a marked, though not statistically significant, increase in the PER in the season after reconstruction. After ACL reconstruction in 27 basketball players, 22% did not return to a sanctioned NBA game. For those returning to play, performance decreased by more than 1 PER point in 44% of the patients, although the changes were not statistically significant relative to the comparison group. Level IV, therapeutic case series.

An assessment of flow data from Klamath River sites between Link River Dam and Keno Dam, south-central Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Risley, John C.; Hess, Glen W.; Fisher, Bruce J.

2006-01-01

Records of diversion and return flows for water years 1961?2004 along a reach of the Klamath River between Link River and Keno Dams in south-central Oregon were evaluated to determine the cause of a water-balance inconsistency in the hydrologic data. The data indicated that the reach was losing flow in the 1960s and 1970s and gaining flow in the 1980s and 1990s. The absolute mean annual net water-balance difference in flows between the first and second half of the 44-year period (1961-2004) was approximately 103,000 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr). The quality of the diversion and return-flow records used in the water balance was evaluated using U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) criteria for accuracy. With the exception of the USGS Klamath River at Keno record, which was rated as 'good' or 'excellent,' the eight other flow records, all from non-USGS flow-measurement sites, were rated as 'poor' by USGS standards due to insufficient data-collection documentation and a lack of direct discharge measurements to verify the rating curves. The record for the Link River site, the most upstream in the study area, included both river and westside power canal flows. Because of rating curve biases, the river flows might have been overestimated by 25,000 acre-ft/yr on average from water years 1961 to 1982 and underestimated by 7,000 acre-ft/yr on average from water years 1983 to 2004. For water years 1984-2004, westside power canal flows might have been underestimated by 11,000 acre-ft/yr. Some diversion and return flows (for mostly agricultural, industrial, and urban use) along the Klamath River study reach, not measured continuously and not included in the water-balance equation, also were evaluated. However, the sum of these diversion and return flows was insufficient to explain the water-balance inconsistency. The possibility that ground-water levels in lands adjacent to the river rose during water years 1961-2004 and caused an increase in ground-water discharge to the river also was evaluated. However, water-level data from local wells did not have a rising trend during the period. The most likely cause of the water-balance inconsistency was flow measurement error in the eight non-USGS flow records. Part of the water-balance inconsistency can be explained by a 43,000 acre-foot error in the river and canal flow portions of the Link River flow record. A remaining 60,000 acre-foot error might have been distributed among the seven other flow records, or much of the remaining 60,000 acre-foot error might have been in the Link River flow record because flows in that record had a greater magnitude than flows in the seven other records. As an additional analysis of the water-balance issue, flow records used in the water balance were evaluated for trends and compared to known changes in water management in the Bureau of Reclamation Klamath Project and Lower Klamath and Tule Lake National Wildlife Refuges over the 44-year period. Many of the water-management changes were implemented in the early 1980s. For three diversion flow records, 1983-2004 mean annual flows were 16,000, 8,000, and 21,000 acre-ft/yr greater than their 1961-82 mean annual flows. Return flows to the Klamath River at two flow-measurement sites decreased by 31,000 and 27,000 acre-ft/yr for 1983-2004 compared with the 1961-82 period.

Assessment of future variability in extreme precipitation and the potential effects on the wadi flow regime.

PubMed

Gunawardhana, Luminda Niroshana; Al-Rawas, Ghazi A; Kazama, So; Al-Najar, Khalid A

2015-10-01

The objective of this study is to investigate how the magnitude and occurrence of extreme precipitation events are affected by climate change and to predict the subsequent impacts on the wadi flow regime in the Al-Khod catchment area, Muscat, Oman. The tank model, a lumped-parameter rainfall-runoff model, was used to simulate the wadi flow. Precipitation extremes and their potential future changes were predicted using six-member ensembles of general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Yearly maxima of the daily precipitation and wadi flow for varying return periods were compared for observed and projected data by fitting the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution function. Flow duration curves (FDC) were developed and compared for the observed and projected wadi flows. The results indicate that extreme precipitation events consistently increase by the middle of the twenty-first century for all return periods (49-52%), but changes may become more profound by the end of the twenty-first century (81-101%). Consequently, the relative change in extreme wadi flow is greater than twofolds for all of the return periods in the late twenty-first century compared to the relative changes that occur in the mid-century period. Precipitation analysis further suggests that greater than 50% of the precipitation may be associated with extreme events in the future. The FDC analysis reveals that changes in low-to-moderate flows (Q60-Q90) may not be statistically significant, whereas increases in high flows (Q5) are statistically robust (20 and 25% for the mid- and late-century periods, respectively).

Arthroscopic Shoulder Surgery in Female Professional Tennis Players: Ability and Timing to Return to Play.

PubMed

Young, Simon W; Dakic, Jodie; Stroia, Kathleen; Nguyen, Michael L; Safran, Marc R

2017-07-01

To assess the outcome and time to return to previous level of competitive play after shoulder surgery in professional tennis players. Retrospective case series. Tertiary academic centre. The records of all female tennis players on the Women's Tennis Association (WTA) professional circuit between January 2008 and June 2010 were reviewed to identify players who underwent shoulder surgery on their dominant (serving) shoulder. Primary outcomes were the ability and time to return to professional play and if they were able to return to their previous level of function as determined by singles ranking. Preoperative and postoperative singles rankings were used to determine rate and completeness of return to preoperative function. During the study period, 8 professional women tennis players from the WTA tour underwent shoulder surgery on their dominant arm. Indications included rotator cuff debridement or repair, labral reconstruction for instability or superior labral anterior posterior lesion, and neurolysis of the suprascapular nerve. Seven players (88%) returned to professional play. The mean time to return to play was 7 months after surgery. However, only 25% (2 of 8) players achieved their preinjury singles rank or better by 18 months postoperatively. In total, 4 players returned to their preinjury singles ranking, with their peak singles ranking being attained at a mean of 2.4 years postoperatively. In professional female tennis players, a high return to play rate after arthroscopic shoulder surgery is associated with a prolonged and often incomplete return to previous level of performance. Thus, counseling the patient to this fact is important to manage expectations. Level IV-Case Series.

The effect of graded activity on patients with subacute low back pain: a randomized prospective clinical study with an operant-conditioning behavioral approach.

PubMed

Lindström, I; Ohlund, C; Eek, C; Wallin, L; Peterson, L E; Fordyce, W E; Nachemson, A L

1992-04-01

The aim of this study was to determine whether graded activity restored occupational function in industrial blue-collar workers who were sick-listed for 8 weeks because of subacute, nonspecific, mechanical low back pain (LBP). Patients with LBP, who had been examined by an orthopedic surgeon and a social worker, were randomly assigned to either an activity group (n = 51) or a control group (n = 52). Patients with defined orthopedic, medical, or psychiatric diagnoses were excluded before randomization. The graded activity program consisted of four parts: (1) measurements of functional capacity; (2) a work-place visit; (3) back school education; and (4) an individual, submaximal, gradually increased exercise program, with an operant-conditioning behavioral approach, based on the results of the tests and the demands of the patient's work. Records of the amount of sick leave taken over a 3-year period (ie, the 1-year periods before, during, and after intervention) were obtained from each patient's Social Insurance Office. The patients in the activity group returned to work significantly earlier than did the patients in the control group. The median number of physical therapist appointments before return to work was 5, and the average number of appointments was 10.7 (SD = 12.3). The average duration of sick leave attributable to LBP during the second follow-up year was 12.1 weeks (SD = 18.4) in the activity group and 19.6 weeks (SD = 20.7) in the control group. Four patients in the control group and 1 patient in the activity group received permanent disability pensions. The graded activity program made the patients occupationally functional again, as measured by return to work and significantly reduced long-term sick leave.

Seismic Microzonation of Islamabad-Rawalpindi Metropolitan Area, Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Sarfraz; Khan, M. Asif

2018-01-01

Microzonation deals with classifying seismic hazards in terms of ground motions resulting from amplification of seismic waves by nature of soil profiles underlying a site, town or city. This paper presents the results of microzonation study for Islamabad metropolitan, the capital of Pakistan. Cumulative SPT- N values from geophysical borehole and microtremor (Tromino Engy Plus) data were used to classify the soils into classes C (very dense soil profile and soft rock) and D (stiff soil profile) as devised by the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (NEHRP). Soil response analyses were carried out based on scaled time histories of Kashmir earthquake (2005, 0.02 g), Mangla earthquake (2006, 0.031 g) and Haripur earthquake (2010, 0.13 g) corresponding to return periods of 150, 475, 975 and 2475 years. Spectral accelerations on the ground surface are calculated by two different approaches (1) soil response analysis performed using one dimensional shear wave propagation method (equivalent linear approach); and (2) NEHRP and Borcherdt amplification factors. Microzonation maps are produced with respect to ground shaking intensity for the return periods of 150, 475, 975 and 2475 years taking into account the variation of the spectral accelerations calculated based on these two procedures. The results show that the accelerations at the ground surface in the Islamabad-Rawalpindi metropolitan are in the range of 0.40-0.48 g (for 150 years), 0.59-0.65 g (for 475 years), 0.71-0.77 g (for 975 years), and 0.92-0.94 g (for 2475 years). The amplification factors for these four hazard levels range from 0.96 to 1.38 (150 years), 0.90-1.14 (475 years), 0.85-1.04 (975 years) and 0.84-1.00 (2475 years).

Evolution of migraine after a 10-year follow-up.

PubMed

Nachit-Ouinekh, Fatima; Dartigues, Jean-François; Chrysostome, Virginie; Henry, Patrick; Sourgen, Christophe; El Hasnaoui, Abdelkader

2005-01-01

To assess the evolution of headaches in a workplace cohort over a 10-year period. Migraine headaches are associated with significant handicap in everyday activities and poor quality of life. The prevalence of migraine shows a bell-shaped age distribution with a peak during the third and fourth decades. However, there is little longitudinal data available on the natural history of this condition. A prospective health survey undertaken in a large workplace cohort since 1989 provides an opportunity to assess the evolution of migraine and other headache syndromes over a 10-year period. A sample of 2500 subjects who reported regular headaches was chosen at random from those with headache identified in a cohort of 46,244 employees of the French national power company aged between 35 and 50 years in 1989 participating in a yearly health survey. In 1993, all subjects were sent a headache questionnaire to complete and return. In 2003, an identical questionnaire was sent to all subjects who had returned exploitable data in 1993. Headache diagnosis was assigned retrospectively using the International Headache Society (IHS) criteria to migraine (IHS categories 1.1 and 1.2), migrainous disorder (IHS category 1.7), or other episodic headaches. Of 2500 subjects sampled, 2051 (82%) returned exploitable data for the first questionnaire in 1993. In 2003, 1250 (61%) of these provided a second data set. In 1993, 623 (30.4%) of subjects fulfilled diagnostic criteria for migraine. However, only 37% of these retained the diagnosis 10 years later. In contrast, the proportion of subjects with other forms of episodic headache rose from 23.7% to 31.6%. In 2003, 9.5% of the sample were headache-free. Retention or acquisition of a diagnosis of migraine was more common in women than in men, and age was associated with evolution to a less severe headache syndrome. In those subjects who continued to have headaches, frequency and severity were lower at the second assessment. Only a minority of subjects diagnosed with migraine or migrainous disorder retain the diagnosis 10 years later, with most subjects evolving to a less disabling headache type.

Optimal investment horizons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simonsen, I.; Jensen, M. H.; Johansen, A.

2002-06-01

In stochastic finance, one traditionally considers the return as a competitive measure of an asset, i.e., the profit generated by that asset after some fixed time span Δt, say one week or one year. This measures how well (or how bad) the asset performs over that given period of time. It has been established that the distribution of returns exhibits ``fat tails'' indicating that large returns occur more frequently than what is expected from standard Gaussian stochastic processes [1-3]. Instead of estimating this ``fat tail'' distribution of returns, we propose here an alternative approach, which is outlined by addressing the following question: What is the smallest time interval needed for an asset to cross a fixed return level of say 10%? For a particular asset, we refer to this time as the investment horizon and the corresponding distribution as the investment horizon distribution. This latter distribution complements that of returns and provides new and possibly crucial information for portfolio design and risk-management, as well as for pricing of more exotic options. By considering historical financial data, exemplified by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, we obtain a novel set of probability distributions for the investment horizons which can be used to estimate the optimal investment horizon for a stock or a future contract.

What do sales data tell us about implant survival?

PubMed

Seemann, Rudolf; Jirku, Alexander; Wagner, Florian; Wutzl, Arno

2017-01-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of implant diameter, length and shape on a surrogate parameter of implant survival; i.e. the implant return rate in a big data analysis. A retrospective study was conducted and the factors influencing the success rates of 69,377 sold implants over a seven-year period were evaluated. The osseointegration program of a reseller provides reliable data of a single country. Implant loss rates were investigated using logistic regression models and regressed by implant type, diameter, and length. The return rate of 69,377 sold implants was 2.78% and comparable to implant loss rates in previous published prospective studies as its surrogate parameter. A total of 80% of implant returns had occurred within 157 days, and an additional 15% within 750.25 days. Diameters of 3.8 to 5.0mm showed the lowest return rates with its bottom in the 4.3mm implant whilst 6.0mm implants had significantly higher return rates. In comparison to the most sold implant length (13mm) shorter implants showed significantly higher early return rates. The study provides evidence that in cases of standard indications and sufficient bone, the use of screw typed dental implants with 3.8 or 4.3 diameter and 11 or 13 mm length shows the lowest implant return rates. Other implants may be selected only in specific indications.

Reminiscence of my Sixty-five year Voyage in Astronomy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Shouguan

2016-06-01

I returned to China from the United Kingdom in 1953, then worked in Purple Mountain Observatory. It was the early days of new China. The elder generation of astronomers was undertaking an effort of “repairing broken and filling defect” during those post-war years, and started planning and laying the foundation of modern astronomy. Under their leadership, I started a journey of astronomy whose main task was construction. The journey has been full of twists and turns. As a result of the “Great Leap Forward” in 1958 and the 1966 launch of the decade-long “Cultural Revolution” period, the situation of construction in astronomy was similar to that in other sciences, suffering bad effects. Not until the “Reform and Opening up” period after those events was construction able to continue, and various disciplines and international connections began to open. A “passage” had gradually developed. In this new circumstance, I kept pursuing the pioneers to explore a forward direction. Looking back today, this journey has been three periods of a four generation relay. This article is divided into three sections that describe my research work in these times that I recall: (1) Looking back at the beginning of the return and tracing the footprints of the founders. (2) Recalling my radio astronomy tour. (3) Retrospection and expectation of LAMOST.

Modelling of PM10 concentration for industrialized area in Malaysia: A case study in Shah Alam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

N, Norazian Mohamed; Abdullah, M. M. A.; Tan, Cheng-yau; Ramli, N. A.; Yahaya, A. S.; Fitri, N. F. M. Y.

In Malaysia, the predominant air pollutants are suspended particulate matter (SPM) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). This research is on PM10 as they may trigger harm to human health as well as environment. Six distributions, namely Weibull, log-normal, gamma, Rayleigh, Gumbel and Frechet were chosen to model the PM10 observations at the chosen industrial area i.e. Shah Alam. One-year period hourly average data for 2006 and 2007 were used for this research. For parameters estimation, method of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) was selected. Four performance indicators that are mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R2) and prediction accuracy (PA), were applied to determine the goodness-of-fit criteria of the distributions. The best distribution that fits with the PM10 observations in Shah Alamwas found to be log-normal distribution. The probabilities of the exceedences concentration were calculated and the return period for the coming year was predicted from the cumulative density function (cdf) obtained from the best-fit distributions. For the 2006 data, Shah Alam was predicted to exceed 150 μg/m3 for 5.9 days in 2007 with a return period of one occurrence per 62 days. For 2007, the studied area does not exceed the MAAQG of 150 μg/m3

Probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis for Cairo, Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan

2016-04-01

Cairo is the capital of Egypt and the largest city in the Arab world and Africa, and the sixteenth largest metropolitan area in the world. It was founded in the tenth century (969 ad) and is 1046 years old. It has long been a center of the region's political and cultural life. Therefore, the earthquake risk assessment for Cairo has a great importance. The present work aims to analysis the earthquake hazard of Cairo as a key input's element for the risk assessment. The regional seismotectonics setting shows that Cairo could be affected by both far- and near-field seismic sources. The seismic hazard of Cairo has been estimated using the probabilistic seismic hazard approach. The logic tree frame work was used during the calculations. Epistemic uncertainties were considered into account by using alternative seismotectonics models and alternative ground motion prediction equations. Seismic hazard values have been estimated within a grid of 0.1° × 0.1 ° spacing for all of Cairo's districts at different spectral periods and four return periods (224, 615, 1230, and 4745 years). Moreover, the uniform hazard spectra have been calculated at the same return periods. The pattern of the contour maps show that the highest values of the peak ground acceleration is concentrated in the eastern zone's districts (e.g., El Nozha) and the lowest values at the northern and western zone's districts (e.g., El Sharabiya and El Khalifa).

Global root zone storage capacity from satellite-based evaporation data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang-Erlandsson, Lan; Bastiaanssen, Wim; Gao, Hongkai; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Senay, Gabriel; van Dijk, Albert; Guerschman, Juan; Keys, Patrick; Gordon, Line; Savenije, Hubert

2016-04-01

We present an "earth observation-based" method for estimating root zone storage capacity - a critical, yet uncertain parameter in hydrological and land surface modelling. By assuming that vegetation optimises its root zone storage capacity to bridge critical dry periods, we were able to use state-of-the-art satellite-based evaporation data computed with independent energy balance equations to derive gridded root zone storage capacity at global scale. This approach does not require soil or vegetation information, is model independent, and is in principle scale-independent. In contrast to traditional look-up table approaches, our method captures the variability in root zone storage capacity within land cover type, including in rainforests where direct measurements of root depth otherwise are scarce. Implementing the estimated root zone storage capacity in the global hydrological model STEAM improved evaporation simulation overall, and in particular during the least evaporating months in sub-humid to humid regions with moderate to high seasonality. We find that evergreen forests are able to create a large storage to buffer for extreme droughts (with a return period of up to 60 years), in contrast to short vegetation and crops (which seem to adapt to a drought return period of about 2 years). The presented method to estimate root zone storage capacity eliminates the need for soils and rooting depth information, which could be a game-changer in global land surface modelling.

26 CFR 1.6042-1 - Return of information as to dividends paid in calendar years before 1963.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... owner or payee, the name of the issuing corporation, the number of shares of such stock, and the amount... such actual owner (without itemization as to the issuing company, class of stock, etc.). (2) Exceptions... periodical distributions of earnings on running installment shares of stock paid or credited by a building...

Reliability of Long-Term Wave Conditions Predicted with Data Sets of Short Duration

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-03-01

the validity and reliability of predicted probable wave heights obtained from data of limited duration. BACKGROUND: The basic steps listed by...interest to perform the analysis outlined in steps 2 to 5, the prediction would only be reliable for up to a 3year return period. For a 5-year data set...for long-term hindcast data . The data retrieval and analysis program known as the Sea State Engineering Analysis System (SEAS) makes handling of the

Numerical Modeling of Coastal Inundation and Sedimentation by Storm Surge, Tides, and Waves at Norfolk, Virginia, USA

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-07-01

hurricanes (tropical) with a 50-year and a 100-year return period, and one winter storm ( extratropical ) occurred in October 1982. There are a total of 15...under the 0-m and 2-m SLR scenarios, respectively. • Tropical and extratropical storms induce extensive coastal inundation around the military...1 NUMERICAL MODELING OF COASTAL INUNDATION AND SEDIMENTATION BY STORM SURGE, TIDES, AND WAVES AT NORFOLK, VIRGINIA, USA Honghai Li 1 , Lihwa Lin 1

Entropy-based financial asset pricing.

PubMed

Ormos, Mihály; Zibriczky, Dávid

2014-01-01

We investigate entropy as a financial risk measure. Entropy explains the equity premium of securities and portfolios in a simpler way and, at the same time, with higher explanatory power than the beta parameter of the capital asset pricing model. For asset pricing we define the continuous entropy as an alternative measure of risk. Our results show that entropy decreases in the function of the number of securities involved in a portfolio in a similar way to the standard deviation, and that efficient portfolios are situated on a hyperbola in the expected return-entropy system. For empirical investigation we use daily returns of 150 randomly selected securities for a period of 27 years. Our regression results show that entropy has a higher explanatory power for the expected return than the capital asset pricing model beta. Furthermore we show the time varying behavior of the beta along with entropy.

Entropy-Based Financial Asset Pricing

PubMed Central

Ormos, Mihály; Zibriczky, Dávid

2014-01-01

We investigate entropy as a financial risk measure. Entropy explains the equity premium of securities and portfolios in a simpler way and, at the same time, with higher explanatory power than the beta parameter of the capital asset pricing model. For asset pricing we define the continuous entropy as an alternative measure of risk. Our results show that entropy decreases in the function of the number of securities involved in a portfolio in a similar way to the standard deviation, and that efficient portfolios are situated on a hyperbola in the expected return – entropy system. For empirical investigation we use daily returns of 150 randomly selected securities for a period of 27 years. Our regression results show that entropy has a higher explanatory power for the expected return than the capital asset pricing model beta. Furthermore we show the time varying behavior of the beta along with entropy. PMID:25545668

Plunges in the Bombay stock exchange: Characteristics and indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banerjee, Kinjal; Sharma, Chandradew; Bittu, N.

2017-09-01

We study the various sectors of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) for a period of eight years from January 2006-March 2014. Using the data of the daily returns of a period of eight years we investigate the financial cross-correlation co-efficients among the sectors of BSE and Price by Earning (PE) ratio of BSE Sensex. We show that the behavior of these quantities during normal periods and during crisis is very different. We show that the PE ratio shows a particular distinctive trend in the approach to a crash of the financial market and can therefore be used as an indicator of an impending catastrophe. We propose that a model of analysis of crashes in a financial market can be built using two parameters: (i) the PE ratio and (ii) the largest eigenvalue of the cross-correlation matrix.

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times: a tale of two years in not-for-profit hospital financial investments.

PubMed

Song, Paula H; Smith, Dean G; Wheeler, John R C

2008-01-01

Not-for-profit (NFP) hospitals' accumulations of financial assets have been growing steadily over the past 10 years. Surprisingly, little is known about how much investment reserves represent and how they are handled among NFP hospitals. The purpose of this study is to evaluate investment strategies in financial assets among NFP hospitals. Specifically, this article seeks to explore how NFP hospitals allocate and manage financial assets, how much risk hospitals employ in their investment strategies, and the risk and return trade-off under contrasting market conditions. Using two years of survey data from the Common fund Benchmarks Study for Health Care Institutions for fiscal years 2002 and 2003, we analyze NFP hospitals' investment strategies by comparing asset size, investment management characteristics, board characteristics, asset allocation, levels of risk, and annual returns. Univariate regression analysis is used to evaluate the relationship between risk and return. NFP hospitals have sizeable long-term financial assets, averaging over $558 million in 2002 and $634 million in 2003. Two thirds of these funds are invested in long-term operating funds followed by defined benefit pension funds and insurance reserves; management of these funds is primarily outsourced. NFP hospitals allocate, on average, 50% of their operating fund assets to equities. During the stock market downturn in 2002, each 1% investment in equities was significantly associated with a -0.18% decrease in annual returns. In contrast, the relationship is almost exactly opposite--consistent with the relationship typically associated with risk and return--in 2003. NFP hospitals with heavy reliance on investment income to boost total profit margins may have difficulty adjusting to periods of low performance. Evaluation of the performance and financial condition of the hospital must account for the size and composition of financial assets.

26 CFR 1.6013-2 - Joint return after filing separate return.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... the case of a joint return made under section 6013(b), the period of limitations provided in sections... (c)(1) of this section, relating to the application of sections 6501 and 6651 with respect to a joint... 26 Internal Revenue 13 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Joint return after filing separate return. 1...

Endoscopic bursectomy for the treatment of septic pre-patellar bursitis: a case series.

PubMed

Dillon, John P; Freedman, Ilan; Tan, James S M; Mitchell, David; English, Shaun

2012-07-01

Operative treatment for septic pre-patellar bursitis generally involves open debridement in addition to an extended course of intravenous antibiotics. Skin necrosis and wound breakdown are potential complications of this procedure in addition to scar sensitivity and a prolonged recovery. We report endoscopic bursectomy for the treatment of septic pre-patellar bursitis in eight patients over a 3-year period. All patients had microbiological confirmation of an infective process. The average age was 36 years (23-68 years). The average hospital stay was 6 days (4-9 days). No patient had a recurrence or complained of tenderness or hypoaesthesia around their wound. No patient experienced wound complications or skin necrosis. The average return to work time was 18 days (7-22 days). We conclude that endoscopic bursectomy is a safe and effective treatment for septic pre-patellar bursitis with a shortened hospital stay and a quicker return to work than conventional open debridement.

Change of flood risk under climate change based on Discharge Probability Index in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nitta, T.; Yoshimura, K.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

2010-12-01

Water-related disasters under the climate change have recently gained considerable interest, and there have been many studies referring to flood risk at the global scale (e.g. Milly et al., 2002; Hirabayashi et al., 2008). In order to build adaptive capacity, however, regional impact evaluation is needed. We thus focus on the flood risk over Japan in the present study. The output from the Regional Climate Model 20 (RCM20), which was developed by the Meteorological Research Institute, was used. The data was first compared with observed data based on Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System and ground weather observations, and the model biases were corrected using the ratio and difference of the 20-year mean values. The bias-corrected RCM20 atmospheric data were then forced to run a land surface model and a river routing model (Yoshimura et al., 2007; Ngo-Duc, T. et al. 2007) to simulate river discharge during 1981-2000, 2031-2050, and 2081-2100. Simulated river discharge was converted to Discharge Probability Index (DPI), which was proposed by Yoshimura et al based on a statistical approach. The bias and uncertainty of the models are already taken into account in the concept of DPI, so that DPI serves as a good indicator of flood risk. We estimated the statistical parameters for DPI using the river discharge for 1981-2000 with an assumption that the parameters stay the same in the different climate periods. We then evaluated the occurrence of flood events corresponding to DPI categories in each 20 years and averaged them in 9 regions. The results indicate that low DPI flood events (return period of 2 years) will become more frequent in 2031-2050 and high DPI flood events (return period of 200 years) will become more frequent in 2081-2100 compared with the period of 1981-2000, though average precipitation will become larger during 2031-2050 than during 2081-2100 in most regions. It reflects the increased extreme precipitation during 2081-2100.

Effect of forest clear-cutting on landslide occurrences: Analysis of rainfall thresholds at Mt. Ichifusa, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saito, Hitoshi; Murakami, Wataru; Daimaru, Hiromu; Oguchi, Takashi

2017-01-01

Vegetation cover is an important factor for rainfall-induced landslides. We analyzed the effect of forest clear-cutting on the initiation of landslides using empirical rainfall intensity-duration (I-D) thresholds at Mt. Ichifusa, Japan, which is characterized by granitic rocks. Extensive clear-cutting was conducted for the forest industry during the late 1960s in the northern part of Mt. Ichifusa. This single episode of clear-cutting caused frequent shallow landslides triggered by rainfall. We interpreted orthorectified aerial photographs from 1969, 1976, 1980, 1985, 1990, 1995, 1999, and 2005 using GIS and mapped landslides based on these photographs. We then analyzed all rainfall events of the warm seasons (Apr.-Oct.) of 1952-2011 (60 years) based on hourly rain gauge data. We used basic rainfall parameters such as mean rainfall intensity (I, mm/h) and duration (D, h) and estimated the return periods of these rainfall conditions. We investigated rainfall I-D thresholds for landslide occurrences in each period represented by the aerial photographs and assessed the relationships between landslide occurrences and topographic characteristics from 10-m DEMs. The results show that several landslides occurred after clear-cutting before 1976 but that they have occurred most frequently during the periods 1976-1980, 1980-1985, and 1990-1995. Numerous landslides occurred in these years at steeper and gentler slopes in the clear-cut area, but few landslides occurred in the non-clear-cut area. Rainfall analysis demonstrates that rainfall I-D thresholds after clear-cutting declined to half of those of the non-clear-cut area. The return periods of these rainfall I-D thresholds also declined to 1 year for short durations of < 12 h and to < 3 years for 72 h in the clear-cut area. Our findings underscore the substantial hysteresis effects between clear-cutting and landslide occurrences at Mt. Ichifusa.

Impact of an emergency department pain management protocol on the pattern of visits by patients with sickle cell disease.

PubMed

Givens, Melissa; Rutherford, Cynthia; Joshi, Girish; Delaney, Kathleen

2007-04-01

This study explores how implementation of pain management guidelines in concert with clinic case management affected emergency department (ED) utilization, clinic visits, and hospital admissions for patients with sickle cell disease. A pain management guideline that eliminated meperidine and encouraged timely use of morphine or hydromorphone for pain control in sickle cell crisis was introduced as a quality improvement project. This study is a retrospective review of ED visits, clinic visits, and admissions from 1 year before and 3 years after the guideline implementation. Working with the ED, the Hematology Clinic began to proactively seek the return of their patients for clinic follow-up. A formal case management program for sickle cell patients was initiated in June 2003. A total of 1584 visits by 223 patients were collected, 1097 to the ED and 487 to the Hematology Clinic. Total hospital visits did not change significantly in any of the 4 years, p > 0.10 for each comparison. Total ED visits decreased significantly over the 4-year study period (p < 0.001), whereas clinic visits steadily increased (p < 0.001). Return visits to the ED within 30 days also declined significantly, p < 0.001. Both the absolute number of admissions per year and the total admissions per hospital visit per year declined significantly over the study period, p = 0.001. Although total admissions per hospital visit did not change, the proportion of ED visits that resulted in admission in year 1 (29%) was significantly lower than the proportion admitted in year 2 (43%), p = 0.04. A pain protocol using morphine or hydromorphone coupled with increased access to outpatient clinics decreased ED visits, hospitalizations, and increased utilization of a more stable primary care clinic setting by patients with sickle cell disease.

Water-use information for California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Templin, W.E.

1986-01-01

This pamphlet reports on the availability of water use information to and for the state of California, through the development of the State Water-Use Data System (SWUDS). SWUDS is currently organized into 12 water use categories: Agricultural non-irrigation; Commercial; Domestic; Industrial; Irrigation; Mining; Power generation--fossil fuel, geothermal, hydroelectric , nuclear; Sewage treatment; and Water supply. The information needs of this system include type of water use (by category); name of water user; location of water use (latitude/longitude, county, and hydrologic unit--drainage basin); sources of water supply and return (fresh, saline, or reclaimed surface or groundwater); volume of water withdrawn, delivered, consumed, released, and returned; and period of water use (month, year). (Lantz-PTT)

The integration of acetic acid iontophoresis, orthotic therapy and physical rehabilitation for chronic plantar fasciitis: a case study

PubMed Central

Costa, Ivano A; Dyson, Anita

2007-01-01

A 15-year-old female soccer player presented with chronic plantar fasciitis. She was treated with acetic acid iontophoresis and a combination of rehabilitation protocols, ultrasound, athletic taping, custom orthotics and soft tissue therapies with symptom resolution and return to full activities within a period of 6 weeks. She reported no significant return of symptoms post follow-up at 2 months. Acetic acid iontophoresis has shown promising results and further studies should be considered to determine clinical effectiveness. The combination of acetic acid iontophoresis with conservative treatments may promote recovery within a shorter duration compared to the use of one-method treatment approaches. PMID:17885679

Effect of high-impact targeted trap-neuter-return and adoption of community cats on cat intake to a shelter.

PubMed

Levy, J K; Isaza, N M; Scott, K C

2014-09-01

Approximately 2-3 million cats enter animal shelters annually in the United States. A large proportion of these are unowned community cats that have no one to reclaim them and may be too unsocialized for adoption. More than half of impounded cats are euthanased due to shelter crowding, shelter-acquired disease or feral behavior. Trap-neuter-return (TNR), an alternative to shelter impoundment, improves cat welfare and reduces the size of cat colonies, but has been regarded as too impractical to reduce cat populations on a larger scale or to limit shelter cat intake. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of TNR concentrated in a region of historically high cat impoundments in a Florida community. A 2-year program was implemented to capture and neuter at least 50% of the estimated community cats in a single 11.9 km(2) zip code area, followed by return to the neighborhood or adoption. Trends in shelter cat intake from the target zip code were compared to the rest of the county. A total of 2366 cats, representing approximately 54% of the projected community cat population in the targeted area, were captured for the TNR program over the 2-year study period. After 2 years, per capita shelter intake was 3.5-fold higher and per capita shelter euthanasia was 17.5-fold higher in the non-target area than in the target area. Shelter cat impoundment from the target area where 60 cats/1000 residents were neutered annually decreased by 66% during the 2-year study period, compared to a decrease of 12% in the non-target area, where only 12 cats/1000 residents were neutered annually. High-impact TNR combined with the adoption of socialized cats and nuisance resolution counseling for residents is an effective tool for reducing shelter cat intake. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Validation of a Global Hydrodynamic Flood Inundation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bates, P. D.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C. C.; Alfieri, L.; Neal, J. C.

2014-12-01

In this work we present first validation results for a hyper-resolution global flood inundation model. We use a true hydrodynamic model (LISFLOOD-FP) to simulate flood inundation at 1km resolution globally and then use downscaling algorithms to determine flood extent and depth at 90m spatial resolution. Terrain data are taken from a custom version of the SRTM data set that has been processed specifically for hydrodynamic modelling. Return periods of flood flows along the entire global river network are determined using: (1) empirical relationships between catchment characteristics and index flood magnitude in different hydroclimatic zones derived from global runoff data; and (2) an index flood growth curve, also empirically derived. Bankful return period flow is then used to set channel width and depth, and flood defence impacts are modelled using empirical relationships between GDP, urbanization and defence standard of protection. The results of these simulations are global flood hazard maps for a number of different return period events from 1 in 5 to 1 in 1000 years. We compare these predictions to flood hazard maps developed by national government agencies in the UK and Germany using similar methods but employing detailed local data, and to observed flood extent at a number of sites including St. Louis, USA and Bangkok in Thailand. Results show that global flood hazard models can have considerable skill given careful treatment to overcome errors in the publicly available data that are used as their input.

Scaling-up treatment of depression and anxiety: a global return on investment analysis.

PubMed

Chisholm, Dan; Sweeny, Kim; Sheehan, Peter; Rasmussen, Bruce; Smit, Filip; Cuijpers, Pim; Saxena, Shekhar

2016-05-01

Depression and anxiety disorders are highly prevalent and disabling disorders, which result not only in an enormous amount of human misery and lost health, but also lost economic output. Here we propose a global investment case for a scaled-up response to the public health and economic burden of depression and anxiety disorders. In this global return on investment analysis, we used the mental health module of the OneHealth tool to calculate treatment costs and health outcomes in 36 countries between 2016 and 2030. We assumed a linear increase in treatment coverage. We factored in a modest improvement of 5% in both the ability to work and productivity at work as a result of treatment, subsequently mapped to the prevailing rates of labour participation and gross domestic product (GDP) per worker in each country. The net present value of investment needed over the period 2016-30 to substantially scale up effective treatment coverage for depression and anxiety disorders is estimated to be US$147 billion. The expected returns to this investment are also substantial. In terms of health impact, scaled-up treatment leads to 43 million extra years of healthy life over the scale-up period. Placing an economic value on these healthy life-years produces a net present value of $310 billion. As well as these intrinsic benefits associated with improved health, scaled-up treatment of common mental disorders also leads to large economic productivity gains (a net present value of $230 billion for scaled-up depression treatment and $169 billion for anxiety disorders). Across country income groups, resulting benefit to cost ratios amount to 2·3-3·0 to 1 when economic benefits only are considered, and 3·3-5·7 to 1 when the value of health returns is also included. Return on investment analysis of the kind reported here can contribute strongly to a balanced investment case for enhanced action to address the large and growing burden of common mental disorders worldwide. Grand Challenges Canada. Copyright © 2016 Chisholm et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

A randomized trial to evaluate the use of text messaging, letter and telephone call reminders to improve return of blood donors with reactive serologic tests

PubMed Central

Porto-Ferreira, Francisco Augusto; de Almeida-Neto, Cesar; Murphy, Edward L.; de Camargo Montebello, Sandra; Nogueira, Fátima Aparecida Hangai; Koga da Silva, Edina Mariko; MacFarland, William; Custer, Brian

2016-01-01

Introduction Low return rates for notification and counseling among donors with reactive serologic screening tests have been reported worldwide. A randomized trial to test the effectiveness of text message, letter or telephone call reminders to improve return among non-responding first-time blood donors with reactive serologic tests was conducted. Methods Donors with serologically reactive screening test results who had a cell phone and resided in the metropolitan telephone area code of São Paulo in the period from August 2013 through July 2014 were eligible. A consecutive sample of first-time donors with reactive screening tests who had not responded to a standard letter requesting the donor return to the blood center were randomly assigned to receive a text, a new letter or a telephone call requesting return for notification and counseling. Return rates were measured over the subsequent 30 days. Results Return following a phone call reminder was better than a text message (39.8% vs. 28.4%; OR=1.66; 95%CI 1.05–2.64) but not better than a letter (39.8% vs. 34.4%; OR=1.32; 95%CI 0.83–2.12). Older age was a predictor of higher rate of return with each year increase in age associated with a 2% increase in the odds of return (OR=1.02; 95%CI 1.01–1.04). Conclusion In non-responding serologic reactive donors, telephone call led to a higher return rate than text message. The results of this study suggest that use of text messages, while attractive for its simplicity, will not lead to increased donor notification success following serologically reactive marker results from blood donation in Brazil. PMID:27774609

Unemployment risk 2 years and 4 years following gastric cancer diagnosis: a population-based study.

PubMed

Rottenberg, Yakir; Jacobs, Jeremy M; Ratzon, Navah Z; Grinshpun, Albert; Cohen, Miri; Uziely, Beatrice; de Boer, Angela G E M

2017-02-01

The needs of gastric cancer survivors have received limited attention. Returning to work after gastric cancer has not yet been described in a population-based study. We aimed to examine the unemployment risk at 2 and 4 years after gastric cancer. The present historical prospective cohort study included baseline measurements from the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics 1995 National Census, with follow-up until 2011. A group with gastric cancer and an age-, sex-, and ethnicity-matched control group were sampled from the census population. Binary logistic regression analyses were used to assess odds ratios (ORs) for the study outcomes, controlling for socioeconomic factors, and employment status at 2 years before diagnosis. Data for 152 gastric cancer cases and 464 matched controls were analyzed. Those who died during the study period were excluded. Two years after diagnosis, 53.3 % of gastric cancer survivors and 43.8 % of controls were unemployed (p = 0.04); 4 years after diagnosis, 53.9 % of survivors, and 47.2 % of controls were unemployed (p = 0.15). In the adjusted models, gastric cancer was only associated with unemployment 2 years after diagnosis (OR = 1.47, 95 % confidence interval [CI] = 1.02-2.12). This association weakened and lost significance 4 years after diagnosis (OR = 1.42, 95 % CI = 0.89-2.28). Gastric cancer was not associated with decreased income at 2 (OR = 1.48, 95 % CI = 0.91-1.48) or 4 years (OR = 1.65, 95 % CI = 0.99-2.74) after diagnosis. Gastric cancer survivorship was associated with unemployment 2 years after diagnosis. Longer-term survivors may have the prospect of returning to work. For patients with cancer, returning to work may be an indicator for returning to a normal lifestyle after serious illness. This study highlights the need for early social support in gastric cancer survivors to promote faster recovery.

Surgical management of chronic proximal hamstring tendinopathy in athletes: a 2 to 11 years of follow-up.

PubMed

Benazzo, Francesco; Marullo, Matteo; Zanon, Giacomo; Indino, Cristian; Pelillo, Francesco

2013-06-01

Proximal hamstring tendinopathy typically afflicts athletes. The poor knowledge of this pathology can lead to late diagnosis and late treatment, which in chronic cases could be challenging. Surgical treatment could resolve the symptoms and could permit the return to full sport activity also in chronic cases. We retrospectively evaluated 17 high-level athletes surgically treated for proximal hamstring tendinopathy. Symptoms lasted for an average of 23 months and were resistive to conservative treatment. The follow-up period averaged 71 months. Return to run without pain occurred at a mean of 2.4 months (range 1-4) after surgery. All patients returned to sports at their pre-symptom level at a mean of 4.4 months after surgery. Results were excellent in 15 patients (88 %) and good in two patients (12 %). No results were fair or poor. Surgical treatment to manage chronic proximal hamstring tendinopathy in high-level athletes showed excellent results in terms of relief from symptoms and return to previous sport level.

Sport-Related Concussion: Optimizing Treatment Through Evidence-Informed Practice.

PubMed

Schneider, Kathryn J

2016-08-01

Concussion is one of the most common injuries in sport and recreation today. Reports of concussion have increased in recent years, likely due to increased societal awareness and the risk of longer-term sequelae. Presently, treatment includes a period of prescribed rest in the acute period following injury, followed by a protocol of graded exertion. Despite an initial period of rest and attempts at a gradual return to play, up to 30% of individuals may have ongoing symptoms past the acute period. The goal of this viewpoint is to introduce the reader to the most common symptoms of concussion and the need for a new, more active paradigm during treatment. J Orthop Sports Phys Ther 2016;46(8):613-616. doi:10.2519/jospt.2016.0607.

Outcomes of Lisfranc Injuries in the National Football League.

PubMed

McHale, Kevin J; Rozell, Joshua C; Milby, Andrew H; Carey, James L; Sennett, Brian J

2016-07-01

Tarsometatarsal (Lisfranc) joint injuries commonly occur in National Football League (NFL) competition; however, the career effect of these injuries is unknown. To define the time to return to competition for NFL players who sustained Lisfranc injuries and to quantify the effect on athletic performance. Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3. Data on NFL players who sustained a Lisfranc injury between 2000 and 2010 were collected for analysis. Outcomes data included time to return to competition, total games played after season of injury, yearly total yards and touchdowns for offensive players, and yearly total tackles, sacks, and interceptions for defensive players. Offensive power ratings (OPR = [total yards/10] + [total touchdowns × 6]) and defensive power ratings (DPR = total tackles + [total sacks × 2] + [total interceptions × 2]) were calculated for the injury season and for 3 seasons before and after the injury season. Offensive and defensive control groups consisted of all players without an identified Lisfranc injury who competed in the 2005 season. The study group was composed of 28 NFL athletes who sustained Lisfranc injuries during the study period, including 11 offensive and 17 defensive players. While 2 of 28 (7.1%) players never returned to the NFL, 26 (92.9%) athletes returned to competition at a median of 11.1 (interquartile range [IQR], 10.3-12.5) months from time of injury and missed a median of 8.5 (IQR, 6.3-13.0) regular-season games. Analysis of pre- and postinjury athletic performance revealed no statistically significant changes after return to sport after Lisfranc injury. The magnitude of change in median OPR and DPR observed in offensive and defensive Lisfranc-injured study groups, -34.8 (IQR, -64.4 to 1.4) and -13.5 (-30.9 to 4.3), respectively, was greater than that observed in offensive and defensive control groups, -18.8 (-52.9 to 31.5) and -5.0 (-22.0 to 14.0), respectively; however, these differences did not reach statistical significance (P = .33 and .21, respectively). Evaluation of the durability of injured players after the season of injury revealed no statistically significant difference in career length compared with controls. More than 90% of NFL athletes who sustained Lisfranc injuries returned to play in the NFL at a median of 11.1 months from time of injury. Offensive and defensive players experienced a decrease in performance after return from injury that did not reach statistical significance compared with their respective control groups over a similar time period. © 2016 The Author(s).

Able or unable to work? Life trajectory after severe occupational injury.

PubMed

Kulmala, Jarna; Luoma, Arto; Koskinen, Lasse

2018-04-24

To study the probabilities and permanence of return to work, inability to work and rehabilitation, and to explore the connection between these life situations and later working after a severe occupational injury. A historical cohort of Finnish workers with a severe occupational injury during 2008 (N = 11,585) were followed up annually on the outcomes of return to work over a 5-year observation period. We examined transition probabilities from one life situation to another with Markov chain analysis, and applied logistic regression with generalized estimating equations to assess the effect of register-based determinants on return to work. Within the five anniversaries, 85% of the injured were working, 9% were unable to work (fully or partly) and 2% received rehabilitation. Age, gross annual income, type of work, injured body part, injury type and the injured's annual condition subsequent to the work injury were significant determinants of return to work. The probability of return to work decreased with time, but, on average, one-fifth of the injured workers succeeded in return to work after being unable to work on the previous anniversary, which indicates that it is worthwhile to conduct efforts for this target group in order to promote return to work. Implications for Rehabilitation The current life situation of the injured should be taken into account when promoting return to work, as it is a strong predictor of later working after a serious occupational injury. Rehabilitation and return to work programs should start in time due to declining return to work rates as the disability continues. Return to work on a part-time basis could be a good option during the early phases of recovery, since a notable proportion of those partly unable to work on the first anniversary returned later to full-time workers. The probability of recovery is relatively high even for those with long-term disabilities, so the promotion of return to work is highly recommended also for this target group.

Large-Scale Simulation of Multi-Asset Ising Financial Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takaishi, Tetsuya

2017-03-01

We perform a large-scale simulation of an Ising-based financial market model that includes 300 asset time series. The financial system simulated by the model shows a fat-tailed return distribution and volatility clustering and exhibits unstable periods indicated by the volatility index measured as the average of absolute-returns. Moreover, we determine that the cumulative risk fraction, which measures the system risk, changes at high volatility periods. We also calculate the inverse participation ratio (IPR) and its higher-power version, IPR6, from the absolute-return cross-correlation matrix. Finally, we show that the IPR and IPR6 also change at high volatility periods.

CORRELATION OF MRI GRADING OF BONE STRESS INJURIES WITH CLINICAL RISK FACTORS AND RETURN TO PLAY: A 5-YEAR PROSPECTIVE STUDY IN COLLEGIATE TRACK AND FIELD ATHLETES

PubMed Central

Nattiv, Aurelia; Kennedy, Gannon; Barrack, Michelle T.; Abdelkerim, Ashraf; Goolsby, Marci A.; Arends, Julie C.; Seeger, Leanne L.

2015-01-01

Background Bone stress injuries are common in track and field athletes. Knowledge of risk factors and correlation of these to magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) grading could be helpful in determining recovery time. Purpose To examine the relationships between MRI grading of bone stress injury with clinical risk factors and time to return to sport in collegiate track and field athletes. Study Design Prospective cohort over 5 years. Methods Two hundred and eleven male and female collegiate track and field and cross-country athletes were followed prospectively through their competitive seasons. All athletes had a pre-participation history, physical exam, and anthropometric measurements obtained annually. An additional questionnaire was completed regarding nutritional behaviors, menstrual patterns and prior injuries, as well as a 3-day diet record. Dual energy X-ray absorptiometry was obtained at baseline and each year of participation in the study. Athletes with clinical evidence of bone stress injuries had plain radiographs. If radiographs were negative, MRI was obtained. Bone stress injuries were evaluated by two independent radiologists utilizing an MRI grading system. MRI grading and risk factors were evaluated to identify predictors of time to return to sport. Results Thirty-four (12 males, 22 females) of the 211 collegiate athletes sustained 61 bone stress injuries during the 5-year study period. The average prospective assessment for participants was 2.1 years. MRI grade and total body bone mineral density (BMD) emerged as significant and independent predictors of time to return to sport in the multiple regression model. Specifically, the higher the MRI grade, the longer the recovery time (p<0.002). Location of bone injury at predominantly trabecular sites of the femoral neck, pubic bone and sacrum (p<0.001), and lower total body BMD (p<0.029) independently predicted prolonged time to return to sport. Conclusions Higher MRI grade, lower BMD, and skeletal sites of predominant trabecular bone structure were independently associated with delayed recovery of bone stress injuries in track and field athletes. Knowledge of these risk factors, as well as nutritional and menstrual factors, can be clinically useful in determining time to return to sport. PMID:23825184

High resolution tree-ring based spatial reconstructions of snow avalanche activity in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pederson, Gregory T.; Reardon, Blase; Caruso, C.J.; Fagre, Daniel B.

2006-01-01

Effective design of avalanche hazard mitigation measures requires long-term records of natural avalanche frequency and extent. Such records are also vital for determining whether natural avalanche frequency and extent vary over time due to climatic or biophysical changes. Where historic records are lacking, an accepted substitute is a chronology developed from tree-ring responses to avalanche-induced damage. This study evaluates a method for using tree-ring chronologies to provide spatially explicit differentiations of avalanche frequency and temporally explicit records of avalanche extent that are often lacking. The study area - part of John F. Stevens Canyon on the southern border of Glacier National Park – is within a heavily used railroad and highway corridor with two dozen active avalanche paths. Using a spatially geo-referenced network of avalanche-damaged trees (n=109) from a single path, we reconstructed a 96-year tree-ring based chronology of avalanche extent and frequency. Comparison of the chronology with historic records revealed that trees recorded all known events as well as the same number of previously unidentified events. Kriging methods provided spatially explicit estimates of avalanche return periods. Estimated return periods for the entire avalanche path averaged 3.2 years. Within this path, return intervals ranged from ~2.3 yrs in the lower track, to ~9-11 yrs and ~12 to >25 yrs in the runout zone, where the railroad and highway are located. For avalanche professionals, engineers, and transportation managers this technique proves a powerful tool in landscape risk assessment and decision making.

Estimating the returns to UK publicly funded cancer-related research in terms of the net value of improved health outcomes

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Building on an approach developed to assess the economic returns to cardiovascular research, we estimated the economic returns from UK public and charitable funded cancer-related research that arise from the net value of the improved health outcomes. Methods To assess these economic returns from cancer-related research in the UK we estimated: 1) public and charitable expenditure on cancer-related research in the UK from 1970 to 2009; 2) net monetary benefit (NMB), that is, the health benefit measured in quality adjusted life years (QALYs) valued in monetary terms (using a base-case value of a QALY of GB£25,000) minus the cost of delivering that benefit, for a prioritised list of interventions from 1991 to 2010; 3) the proportion of NMB attributable to UK research; 4) the elapsed time between research funding and health gain; and 5) the internal rate of return (IRR) from cancer-related research investments on health benefits. We analysed the uncertainties in the IRR estimate using sensitivity analyses to illustrate the effect of some key parameters. Results In 2011/12 prices, total expenditure on cancer-related research from 1970 to 2009 was £15 billion. The NMB of the 5.9 million QALYs gained from the prioritised interventions from 1991 to 2010 was £124 billion. Calculation of the IRR incorporated an estimated elapsed time of 15 years. We related 17% of the annual NMB estimated to be attributable to UK research (for each of the 20 years 1991 to 2010) to 20 years of research investment 15 years earlier (that is, for 1976 to 1995). This produced a best-estimate IRR of 10%, compared with 9% previously estimated for cardiovascular disease research. The sensitivity analysis demonstrated the importance of smoking reduction as a major source of improved cancer-related health outcomes. Conclusions We have demonstrated a substantive IRR from net health gain to public and charitable funding of cancer-related research in the UK, and further validated the approach that we originally used in assessing the returns from cardiovascular research. In doing so, we have highlighted a number of weaknesses and key assumptions that need strengthening in further investigations. Nevertheless, these cautious estimates demonstrate that the returns from past cancer research have been substantial, and justify the investments made during the period 1976 to 1995. PMID:24930803

Soap Suds Enema are Efficacious and Safe for Treating Fecal Impaction in Children with Abdominal Pain

PubMed Central

Chumpitazi, Corrie E.; Henkel, Erin B.; Valdez, Karina L.; Chumpitazi, Bruno P.

2016-01-01

Importance Constipation is a common cause of pediatric abdominal pain and emergency department (ED) presentation. Despite the high prevalence, there is a dearth of clinical information and wide practice variation in childhood constipation management in the ED. Objective To assess the efficacy and safety of soap suds enema (SSE) in the treatment of fecal impaction in children with abdominal pain within the pediatric emergency department (ED) setting. The primary outcome was stool output following SSE. Secondary outcomes were adverse events, admissions, and return visits within 72 hours. Methods This is a retrospective cross-sectional study performed in the ED at a quaternary care children’s hospital of patients seen over a 12-month period who received a SSE for fecal impaction. Results Five hundred twelve patients (53% female, median age 7.8 years, range: 8 months-23 years) received SSE therapy over a 1-year period. Successful therapy (bowel movement) following SSE occurred in 419 (82%). Adverse events included abdominal pain in 24 (5%) and nausea/vomiting in 18 (4%). No SSE-related serious adverse events were identified. Following SSE, 405 (79%) were subsequently discharged, of which 15 (3.7%) returned to the ED for re-evaluation within 72 hours. Conclusions and Relevance SSE is an efficacious and safe therapeutic option for the acute treatment of childhood fecal impaction in the ED setting. PMID:26655947

Bayesian Non-Stationary Index Gauge Modeling of Gridded Precipitation Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verdin, A.; Bracken, C.; Caldwell, J.; Balaji, R.; Funk, C. C.

2017-12-01

We propose a Bayesian non-stationary model to generate watershed scale gridded estimates of extreme precipitation return levels. The Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) dataset is used to obtain gridded seasonal precipitation extremes over the Taylor Park watershed in Colorado for the period 1981-2016. For each year, grid cells within the Taylor Park watershed are aggregated to a representative "index gauge," which is input to the model. Precipitation-frequency curves for the index gauge are estimated for each year, using climate variables with significant teleconnections as proxies. Such proxies enable short-term forecasting of extremes for the upcoming season. Disaggregation ratios of the index gauge to the grid cells within the watershed are computed for each year and preserved to translate the index gauge precipitation-frequency curve to gridded precipitation-frequency maps for select return periods. Gridded precipitation-frequency maps are of the same spatial resolution as CHIRPS (0.05° x 0.05°). We verify that the disaggregation method preserves spatial coherency of extremes in the Taylor Park watershed. Validation of the index gauge extreme precipitation-frequency method consists of ensuring extreme value statistics are preserved on a grid cell basis. To this end, a non-stationary extreme precipitation-frequency analysis is performed on each grid cell individually, and the resulting frequency curves are compared to those produced by the index gauge disaggregation method.

Soap Suds Enemas Are Efficacious and Safe for Treating Fecal Impaction in Children With Abdominal Pain.

PubMed

Chumpitazi, Corrie E; Henkel, Erin B; Valdez, Karina L; Chumpitazi, Bruno P

2016-07-01

Constipation is a common cause of pediatric abdominal pain and emergency department (ED) presentation. Despite the high prevalence, there is a dearth of clinical information and wide practice variation in childhood constipation management in the ED. The objective of the study was to assess the efficacy and safety of soap suds enema (SSE) in the therapy for fecal impaction in children with abdominal pain within the pediatric ED setting. The primary outcome was stool output following SSE. Secondary outcomes were adverse events, admissions, and return visits within 72 hours. The present study is a retrospective cross-sectional study performed in the ED at a quaternary care children's hospital of patients seen during a 12-month period who received an SSE for fecal impaction. Five hundred twelve patients (53% girls, median age 7.8 years, range: 8 months-23 years) received SSE therapy during a 1-year period. Successful therapy (bowel movement) following SSE occurred in 419 (82%). Adverse events included abdominal pain in 24 (5%) and nausea/vomiting in 18 (4%). No SSE-related serious adverse events were identified. Following SSE, 405 (79%) were subsequently discharged, of which 15 (3.7%) returned to the ED for re-evaluation within 72 hours. SSE is an efficacious and safe therapeutic option for the acute treatment of childhood fecal impaction in the ED setting.

Tests of Zinc Rich Anticorrosion Coatings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morrison, J. D.; Paton, W. J.; Rowe, A.

1986-01-01

Condition of zinc-rich anticorrosion coatings after 10 years of exposure discussed in status report, which follows up on 18-month study of anticorrosion coatings on steel started in 1971. Test panels with various coatings mounted on racks on beach and checked periodically. Of panels with inorganic zinc-rich coatings, only one slightly rusted. Panels were in such good condition they were returned to beach for more exposure.

Massive macroglossia, amyloidosis and myeloma.

PubMed Central

Jacobs, P.; Sellars, S.; King, H. S.

1988-01-01

A 74 year old man with light-chain myeloma developed amyloidosis with macroglossia after 10 years of therapy with alkylating agents. Over a 2-year period his tongue enlarged to persistently protrude from his mouth, inhibit his speech, interfere with normal swallowing and eventually threaten his airway. As a life-saving procedure the tumorous anterior two-thirds of the tongue was resected, with excellent primary healing. Within two weeks the patient's speech became comprehensible and his ability to eat returned to normal. Although rare in amyloidosis, massive macroglossia may occur and surgical correction is easily achieved. Images Figure 1 PMID:3150784

Successful lithium treatment of transvestism associated with manic-depression.

PubMed

Ward, N G

1975-09-01

A case of transvestism in a 24-year-old manic-depressive man is described. The behavior had been maintained for 2 years and disappeared soon after lithium treatment was begun. It has not returned during the first year on lithium. Dynamic and behavioral explanations for this unusual therapeutic response are considered. The dynamic explanation involves the assumption that the transvestism was perpetuated by mood-dependent motives that were eliminated by lithium. The behavioral explanation involves the assumption that the manic state itself became an intermittent reinforcer for the transvestism, and the lithium, by eliminating the mania, created a relatively permanent extinction period.

Development of sustainable stormwater management using simulation-optimization approach under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Yu-ru; Tung, Ching-pin

2015-04-01

Climate change had altered the hydrological processes globally with result that the extreme events have an increase in both the magnitude and the frequency. In particular, the high intensity rainfall cause the severe flooding had significantly impacted on human life and property in recently year. The traditional facility to handle runoff is the drainage system which is designed in accordance with the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curve. However, the flooding occurs once the drainage capacity is overwhelmed by excess stormwater. Thus the general solution are that expanding and upgrading the existing drainage system or increasing the design return period for new development areas to reduce flooding. Besides, another technique which is low impact development(LID) is regarded as more sustainable solution for stormwater management. The concept of LID is to control stormwater at the source by decentralized practices and mimic the predevelopment hydrologic conditions including storage, retention and high rate of infiltration. In contrast to conventional drainage system aims to move runoff away as quickly as possible, the LID approach attempts to keep runoff on site to reduce peak and volume of flow. The purpose of this research is to identify the most cost-effective measures for stormwater management after the analysis of the strategies combining drainage system and LID on various land use planning. The case study is a rural community in Hsinchu in Taiwan, and having residential areas, farms and pond. It is assumed that two land use layout are planned and drainage system are designed for 2-,and 5-year return period events. On the other hand, three LID technologies, namely green roof, porous pavement and rain barrel, are selected to place in the scenario of the drainage system for 2-year return period event, and the minimal peak flow is target to optimize LID placement by simulated annealing algorithm. Moreover, the design storm under climate change are derived from the revised IDF curve. After that the storm water management model (SWMM) is used to simulate these strategies for a spectrum of design storms, the cost and the benefit can be analyzed to provide government an advice in developing stormwater management under uncertain conditions of climate change.

Introduction and Application of non-stationary Standardized Precipitation Index Considering Probability Distribution Function and Return Period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, J.; Lim, Y. J.; Sung, J. H.; Kang, H. S.

2017-12-01

The widely used meteorological drought index, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) basically assumes stationarity, but recent change in the climate have led to a need to review this hypothesis. In this study, a new non-stationary SPI that considers not only the modified probability distribution parameter but also the return period under the non-stationary process has been proposed. The results are evaluated for two severe drought cases during the last 10 years in South Korea. As a result, SPIs considered the non-stationary hypothesis underestimated the drought severity than the stationary SPI despite these past two droughts were recognized as significantly severe droughts. It may be caused by that the variances of summer and autumn precipitation become larger over time then it can make the shape of probability distribution function wider than before. This understanding implies that drought expressions by statistical index such as SPI can be distorted by stationary assumption and cautious approach is needed when deciding drought level considering climate changes.

Introduction and application of non-stationary standardized precipitation index considering probability distribution function and return period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Junehyeong; Sung, Jang Hyun; Lim, Yoon-Jin; Kang, Hyun-Suk

2018-05-01

The widely used meteorological drought index, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), basically assumes stationarity, but recent changes in the climate have led to a need to review this hypothesis. In this study, a new non-stationary SPI that considers not only the modified probability distribution parameter but also the return period under the non-stationary process was proposed. The results were evaluated for two severe drought cases during the last 10 years in South Korea. As a result, SPIs considered that the non-stationary hypothesis underestimated the drought severity than the stationary SPI despite that these past two droughts were recognized as significantly severe droughts. It may be caused by that the variances of summer and autumn precipitation become larger over time then it can make the probability distribution wider than before. This implies that drought expressions by statistical index such as SPI can be distorted by stationary assumption and cautious approach is needed when deciding drought level considering climate changes.

Spatiotemporal floodplain mapping and prediction using HEC-RAS - GIS tools: Case of the Mejerda river, Tunisia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben Khalfallah, C.; Saidi, S.

2018-06-01

The floods have become a scourge in recent years (Floods of, 2003, 2006, 2009, 2011, and 2012), increasingly frequent and devastating. Tunisia does not escape flooding problems, the flood management requires basically a better knowledge of the phenomenon (flood), and the use of predictive methods. In order to limit this risk, we became interested in hydrodynamics modeling of Medjerda basin. To reach this aim, rainfall distribution is studied and mapped using GIS tools. In addition, flood and return period estimation of rainfall are calculated using Hyfran. Also, Simulations of recent floods are calculated and mapped using HEC-RAS and HEC-GeoRAS for the most recent flood occurred in February-March 2015 in Medjerda basin. The analysis of the results shows a good correlation between simulated parameters and those measured. There is a flood of the river exceeding 240 m3/s (DGRE, 2015) and more flowing sections are observed in the future simulations; for return periods of 10yr, 20yr and 50yr.

Changes in Benefits of Flood Protection Standard under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, W. H.; Koirala, S.; Yamazaki, D.; Hirabayashi, Y.; Kanae, S.

2014-12-01

Understanding potential risk of river flooding under future climate scenarios might be helpful for developing risk management strategies (including mitigation, adaptation). Such analyses are typically performed at the macro scales (e.g., regional, global) where the climate model output could support (e.g., Hirabayashi et al., 2013, Arnell and Gosling, 2014). To understand the potential benefits of infrastructure upgrading as part of climate adaptation strategies, it is also informative to understand the potential impact of different flood protection standards (in terms of return periods) on global river flooding under climate change. In this study, we use a baseline period (forced by observed hydroclimate conditions) and CMIP5 model output (historic and future periods) to drive a global river routing model called CaMa-Flood (Yamazaki et al., 2011) and simulate the river water depth at a spatial resolution of 15 min x 15 min. From the simulated results of baseline period, we use the annual maxima river water depth to fit the Gumbel distribution and prepare the return period-flood risk relationship (involving population and GDP). From the simulated results of CMIP5 model, we also used the annual maxima river water depth to obtain the Gumbel distribution and then estimate the exceedance probability (historic and future periods). We apply the return period-flood risk relationship (above) to the exceedance probability and evaluate the potential risk of river flooding and changes in the benefits of flood protection standard (e.g., 100-year flood of the baseline period) from the past into the future (represented by the representative concentration pathways). In this presentation, we show our preliminary results. References: Arnell, N.W, Gosling, S., N., 2014. The impact of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale. Climatic Change 122: 127-140, doi: 10.1007/s10584-014-1084-5. Hirabayashi et al., 2013. Global flood risk under climate change. Nature Climate Change 3: 816-821, doi: 10.1038/nclimate1911. Yamazaki et al., 2011. A physically based description of floodplain inundation dynamics in a global river routing model. Water Resources Research 47, W04501, doi: 10.1029/2010wr009726.

[Who benefits from stepwise occupational reintegration provided under the statutory pension insurance scheme?].

PubMed

Bürger, W; Streibelt, M

2011-06-01

Stepwise occupational reintegration (SOR) - since law amendments in April 2004 also provided under the German pension insurance scheme (Deutsche Rentenversicherung, DRV) - is an instrument intended to support insurants on sick-leave in reintegrating into work step by step after long-term illness. In 2008, the effectiveness of SOR regarding return to work was affirmed for the first time in a comprehensive study. However, in view of the growing amount of SOR, the question of differential effects of SOR in special subgroups is raised. This paper presents a re-analysis of data collected in the 2008 study. A total of 696 patients after medical rehabilitation were included in the analyses, 348 with SOR provided by the DRV, and a control group of 348 patients without SOR matched on a multitude of different variables using the Propensity Scores. Successful outcome was measured using a combined criterion "Return to work in good health", that is, patients returning to gainful activity and with sick leave of under 6 weeks and no intention to retire within a one-year follow-period after medical rehabilitation. Differentiating criteria are age gender, rehab indication, periods of sick leave in the year before medical rehabilitation, kind of and access to medical rehabilitation. The data indicate especially good results of SOR for patients with mental disorders (OR=2.49), patients who were requested to participate in medical rehabilitation by a health insurance fund because of long-term sick leave (OR=2.71), and patients with longer periods of sick leave before medical rehabilitation (3 to <6 months: OR=2.41, 6 months and more: OR=2.23). In contrast, there are only minimal effects (statistically not significant) of SOR in patients with medical rehabilitation directly after a hospital stay ("Anschlussheilbehandlung"), patients with cardiac or oncological diseases, and in younger (age 19-34) and older patients (age 55-60). In-depth analyses show that SOR success is more marked in patients with poorer return to work prospects. The findings indicate differential effects of SOR after medical rehabilitation for subgroups, effects associated in particular with return to work problems, kind of disease, and age. There is evidence for greater benefits of SOR in groups of patients with a high risk of non-successful reintegration. Hence, SOR opens up new options after medical rehabilitation in patients with especially severe impairments. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Incidence Rate and Results of the Surgical Treatment of Pectoralis Major Tendon Ruptures in Active-Duty Military Personnel.

PubMed

Balazs, George C; Brelin, Alaina M; Donohue, Michael A; Dworak, Theodora C; Rue, John-Paul H; Giuliani, Jeffrey R; Dickens, Jonathan F

2016-07-01

Pectoralis major tendon ruptures are commonly described as rare injuries affecting men between 20 and 40 years of age, with generally excellent results after surgical repair. However, this perception is based on a relatively small number of case series and prospective studies in the orthopaedic literature. To determine the incidence of pectoralis major tendon ruptures in the active-duty military population and the demographic risk factors for a rupture and to describe the outcomes of surgical treatment. Case control study; Level of evidence, 3. We utilized the Military Health System Data Repository (MDR) to identify all active-duty military personnel surgically treated for a pectoralis major tendon rupture between January 2012 and December 2014. Electronic medical records were searched for patients' demographic information, injury characteristics, and postoperative complications and outcomes. Risk factors for a rupture were calculated using Poisson regression, based on population counts obtained from the MDR. Risk factors for a postoperative complication, the need for revision surgery, and the inability to continue with active duty were determined using univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression. A total of 291 patients met inclusion criteria. The mean patient age was 30.5 years, all patients were male, and the median follow-up period was 18 months. The incidence of injuries was 60 per 100,000 person-years over the study period. Risk factors for a rupture included service in the Army, junior officer or junior enlisted rank, and age between 25 and 34 years. White race and surgery occurring >6 weeks after injury were significant risk factors for a postoperative complication. Among the 214 patients with a minimum of 12 months' clinical follow-up, 95.3% were able to return to military duty. Junior officer/enlisted status was a significant risk factor for failure to return to military duty. Among military personnel, Army soldiers and junior officer/enlisted rank were at highest risk of pectoralis major tendon ruptures, and junior personnel were at highest risk of being unable to return to duty after surgical treatment. Although increasing time from injury to surgery was not a risk factor for treatment failure or inability to return to duty, it did significantly increase the risk of a postoperative complication. © 2016 The Author(s).

Distribution, stock composition and timing, and tagging response of wild Chinook Salmon returning to a large, free-flowing river basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eiler, John H.; Masuda, Michele; Spencer, Ted R.; Driscoll, Richard J.; Schreck, Carl B.

2014-01-01

Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha returns to the Yukon River basin have declined dramatically since the late 1990s, and detailed information on the spawning distribution, stock structure, and stock timing is needed to better manage the run and facilitate conservation efforts. A total of 2,860 fish were radio-tagged in the lower basin during 2002–2004 and tracked upriver. Fish traveled to spawning areas throughout the basin, ranging from several hundred to over 3,000 km from the tagging site. Similar distribution patterns were observed across years, suggesting that the major components of the run were identified. Daily and seasonal composition estimates were calculated for the component stocks. The run was dominated by two regional components comprising over 70% of the return. Substantially fewer fish returned to other areas, ranging from 2% to 9% of the return, but their collective contribution was appreciable. Most regional components consisted of several principal stocks and a number of small, spatially isolated populations. Regional and stock composition estimates were similar across years even though differences in run abundance were reported, suggesting that the differences in abundance were not related to regional or stock-specific variability. Run timing was relatively compressed compared with that in rivers in the southern portion of the species’ range. Most stocks passed through the lower river over a 6-week period, ranging in duration from 16 to 38 d. Run timing was similar for middle- and upper-basin stocks, limiting the use of timing information for management. The lower-basin stocks were primarily later-run fish. Although differences were observed, there was general agreement between our composition and timing estimates and those from other assessment projects within the basin, suggesting that the telemetry-based estimates provided a plausible approximation of the return. However, the short duration of the run, complex stock structure, and similar stock timing complicate management of Yukon River returns.

Advanced Unmanned Search System (AUSS) Surface Navigation, Underwater Tracking, and Transponder Network Calibration

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-09-01

5 ENTER PULSE REP PERIOD ................................ 900 ENTER RETURN TO TOP LEVEL C-5 26. SBS1 RECEIVER ----- HYDROPHONE ----- HYDRI ...HYDROPHONE ----- HYDRI PRECISION RETURN 1 LEVEL 29. HEADING INPUT ------ GYRO 1 ------ CONTINUE RANGE GATE OFF ----- FILTER OFF RETURN TO TOP LEVEL 30...700 ENTER RETURN TO TOP LEVEL 12. SBSI RECEIVER ------ HYDROPHONE ------ HYDRI PRECISION RETURN 1 LEVEL 13. HEADING INPUT ------ GYRO 1

What do sales data tell us about implant survival?

PubMed Central

Seemann, Rudolf; Jirku, Alexander; Wagner, Florian; Wutzl, Arno

2017-01-01

Objective The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of implant diameter, length and shape on a surrogate parameter of implant survival; i.e. the implant return rate in a big data analysis. Materials and methods A retrospective study was conducted and the factors influencing the success rates of 69,377 sold implants over a seven-year period were evaluated. The osseointegration program of a reseller provides reliable data of a single country. Implant loss rates were investigated using logistic regression models and regressed by implant type, diameter, and length. Results The return rate of 69,377 sold implants was 2.78% and comparable to implant loss rates in previous published prospective studies as its surrogate parameter. A total of 80% of implant returns had occurred within 157 days, and an additional 15% within 750.25 days. Diameters of 3.8 to 5.0mm showed the lowest return rates with its bottom in the 4.3mm implant whilst 6.0mm implants had significantly higher return rates. In comparison to the most sold implant length (13mm) shorter implants showed significantly higher early return rates. Conclusions The study provides evidence that in cases of standard indications and sufficient bone, the use of screw typed dental implants with 3.8 or 4.3 diameter and 11 or 13 mm length shows the lowest implant return rates. Other implants may be selected only in specific indications. PMID:28222128

The returns and risks of investment portfolio in a financial market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jiang-Cheng; Mei, Dong-Cheng

2014-07-01

The returns and risks of investment portfolio in a financial system was investigated by constructing a theoretical model based on the Heston model. After the theoretical model and analysis of portfolio were calculated and analyzed, we find the following: (i) The statistical properties (i.e., the probability distribution, the variance and loss rate of equity portfolio return) between simulation results of the theoretical model and the real financial data obtained from Dow Jones Industrial Average are in good agreement; (ii) The maximum dispersion of the investment portfolio is associated with the maximum stability of the equity portfolio return and minimal investment risks; (iii) An increase of the investment period and a worst investment period are associated with a decrease of stability of the equity portfolio return and a maximum investment risk, respectively.

An empirical assessment of which inland floods can be managed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mogollón, Beatriz; Frimpong, Emmanuel A.; Hoegh, Andrew B.; Angermeier, Paul

2016-01-01

Riverine flooding is a significant global issue. Although it is well documented that the influence of landscape structure on floods decreases as flood size increases, studies that define a threshold flood-return period, above which landscape features such as topography, land cover and impoundments can curtail floods, are lacking. Further, the relative influences of natural versus built features on floods is poorly understood. Assumptions about the types of floods that can be managed have considerable implications for the cost-effectiveness of decisions to invest in transforming land cover (e.g., reforestation) and in constructing structures (e.g., storm-water ponds) to control floods. This study defines parameters of floods for which changes in landscape structure can have an impact. We compare nine flood-return periods across 31 watersheds with widely varying topography and land cover in the southeastern United States, using long-term hydrologic records (≥20 years). We also assess the effects of built flow-regulating features (best management practices and artificial water bodies) on selected flood metrics across urban watersheds. We show that landscape features affect magnitude and duration of only those floods with return periods ≤10 years, which suggests that larger floods cannot be managed effectively by manipulating landscape structure. Overall, urban watersheds exhibited larger (270 m3/s) but quicker (0.41 days) floods than non-urban watersheds (50 m3/s and 1.5 days). However, urban watersheds with more flow-regulating features had lower flood magnitudes (154 m3/s), but similar flood durations (0.55 days), compared to urban watersheds with fewer flow-regulating features (360 m3/s and 0.23 days). Our analysis provides insight into the magnitude, duration and count of floods that can be curtailed by landscape structure and its management. Our findings are relevant to other areas with similar climate, topography, and land use, and can help ensure that investments in flood management are made wisely after considering the limitations of landscape features to regulate floods.

Does the Institution of a Statewide Trauma System Reduce Preventable Mortality and Yield a Positive Return on Investment for Taxpayers?

PubMed

Maxson, Todd; Mabry, Charles D; Sutherland, Michael J; Robertson, Ronald D; Booker, James O; Collins, Terry; Spencer, Horace J; Rinker, Charles F; Sanddal, Teri L; Sanddal, Nels D

2017-04-01

In July 2009, Arkansas began to annually fund $20 million for a statewide trauma system (TS). We studied injury deaths both pre-TS (2009) and post-TS (2013 to 2014), with attention to causes of preventive mortality, societal cost of those preventable mortality deaths, and benefit to tax payers of the lives saved. A multi-specialty trauma-expert panel met and reviewed records of 672 decedents (290 pre-TS and 382 post-TS) who met standardized inclusion criteria, were judged potentially salvageable, and were selected by a proportional sampling of the roughly 2,500 annual trauma deaths. Deaths were adjudicated into sub-categories of nonpreventable and preventable causes. The value of lives lost was calculated for those lives potentially saved in the post-TS period. Total preventable mortality was reduced from 30% of cases pre-TS to 16% of cases studied post-TS, a reduction of 14%. Extrapolating a 14% reduction of preventable mortality to the post-TS study period, using the same inclusion criteria of the post-TS, we calculate that 79 lives were saved in 2013 to 2014 due to the institution of a TS. Using a minimal standard estimate of $100,000 value for a life-year, a lifetime value of $2,365,000 per person was saved. This equates to an economic impact of the lives saved of almost $186 million annually, representing a 9-fold return on investment from the $20 million of annual state funding invested in the TS. The implementation of a TS in Arkansas during a 5-year period resulted in a reduction of the preventable death rate to 16% post-TS, and a 9-fold return on investment by the tax payer. Additional life-saving gains can be expected with ongoing financial support and additional system performance-improvement efforts. Copyright © 2017 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Continuous visual field motion impacts the postural responses of older and younger women during and after support surface tilt

PubMed Central

Lauer, Richard T.; Keshner, Emily A.

2011-01-01

The effect of continuous visual flow on the ability to regain and maintain postural orientation was examined. Fourteen young (20–39 years old) and 14 older women (60–79 years old) stood quietly during 3° (30°/s) dorsiflexion tilt of the support surface combined with 30° and 45°/s upward or downward pitch rotations of the visual field. The support surface was held tilted for 30 s and then returned to neutral over a 30-s period while the visual field continued to rotate. Segmental displacement and bilateral tibialis anterior and gastrocnemius muscle EMG responses were recorded. Continuous wavelet transforms were calculated for each muscle EMG response. An instantaneous mean frequency curve (IMNF) of muscle activity, center of mass (COM), center of pressure (COP), and angular excursion at the hip and ankle were used in a functional principal component analysis (fPCA). Functional component weights were calculated and compared with mixed model repeated measures ANOVAs. The fPCA revealed greatest mathematical differences in COM and COP responses between groups or conditions during the period that the platform transitioned from the sustained tilt to a return to neutral position. Muscle EMG responses differed most in the period following support surface tilt indicating that muscle activity increased to support stabilization against the visual flow. Older women exhibited significantly larger COM and COP responses in the direction of visual field motion and less muscle modulation when the platform returned to neutral than younger women. Results on a Rod and Frame test indicated that older women were significantly more visually dependent than the younger women. We concluded that a stiffer body combined with heightened visual sensitivity in older women critically interferes with their ability to counteract posturally destabilizing environments. PMID:21479659

Sports participation 2 years after anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction in athletes who had not returned to sport at 1 year: a prospective follow-up of physical function and psychological factors in 122 athletes.

PubMed

Ardern, Clare L; Taylor, Nicholas F; Feller, Julian A; Whitehead, Timothy S; Webster, Kate E

2015-04-01

A return to their preinjury level of sport is frequently expected within 1 year after anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction, yet up to two-thirds of athletes may not have achieved this milestone. The subsequent sports participation outcomes of athletes who have not returned to their preinjury level sport by 1 year after surgery have not previously been investigated. To investigate return-to-sport rates at 2 years after surgery in athletes who had not returned to their preinjury level sport at 1 year after ACL reconstruction. Case series; Level of evidence, 4. A consecutive cohort of competitive- and recreational-level athletes was recruited prospectively before undergoing ACL reconstruction at a private orthopaedic clinic. Participants were followed up at 1 and 2 years after surgery with a sports activity questionnaire that collected information regarding returning to sport, sports participation, and psychological responses. An independent physical therapist evaluated physical function at 1 year using hop tests and the International Knee Documentation Committee knee examination form and subjective knee evaluation. A group of 122 competitive- and recreational-level athletes who had not returned to their preinjury level sport at 1 year after ACL reconstruction participated. Ninety-one percent of the athletes returned to some form of sport after surgery. At 2 years after surgery, 66% were playing sport, with 41% playing their preinjury level of sport and 25% playing a lower level of sport. Having a previous ACL reconstruction to either knee, poorer hop-test symmetry and subjective knee function, and more negative psychological responses were associated with not playing the preinjury level sport at 2 years. Most athletes who were not playing sport at 1 year had returned to some form of sport within 2 years after ACL reconstruction, which may suggest that athletes can take longer than the clinically expected time of 1 year to return to sport. However, only 2 of every 5 athletes were playing their preinjury level of sport at 2 years after surgery. When the results of the current study were combined with the results of athletes who had returned to sport at 1 year, the overall rate of return to the preinjury level sport at 2 years was 60%. Demographics, physical function, and psychological factors were related to playing the preinjury level sport at 2 years after surgery, supporting the notion that returning to sport after surgery is multifactorial. © 2015 The Author(s).

Lunar mare volcanism - Stratigraphy, eruption conditions, and the evolution of secondary crusts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Head, James W., III; Wilson, Lionel

1992-01-01

Recent developments in the geological analysis of lunar mare volcanism are reviewed. Analysis of returned samples and photogeological and remote sensing studies shows that mare volcanism began prior to the end of heavy bombardment (the period of cryptomare formation), in pre-Nectarian times, and continued until the Copernical Period, the total duration approaching 3.5-4 Ga. Stratigraphic analysis shows that the flux was not constant, but peaked in early lunar history, during the Imbrian Period. Average volcanic output rate during this period was about 0.01 cu cm/a. Volcanic landforms indicate that many eruptions were of high volume and long duration. Some eruptions associated with sinuous rills may have lasted a year and emplaced 1000 cu km of lava, representing the equivalent in one year of about 70,000 yr at the average flux. The occurrence of farside maria within craters whose diameter is generally near to or less than the thickness of the crust may be accounted for by the difference between local and regional compensation.

A study of correlations in the stock market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Chandradew; Banerjee, Kinjal

2015-08-01

We study the various sectors of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) for a period of 8 years from April 2006 to March 2014. Using the data of daily returns of a period of eight years we make a direct model free analysis of the pattern of the sectorial indices movement and the correlations among them. Our analysis shows significant auto correlation among the individual sectors and also strong cross-correlation among sectors. We also find that auto correlations in some of the sectors persist in time. This is a very significant result and has not been reported so far in Indian context. These findings will be very useful in model building for prediction of price movement of equities, derivatives and portfolio management. We show that the Random Walk Hypothesis is not applicable in modeling the Indian market and mean-variance-skewness-kurtosis based portfolio optimization might be required. We also find that almost all sectors are highly correlated during large fluctuation periods and have only moderate correlation during normal periods.

Time-bound product returns and optimal order quantities for mass merchandisers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Min-Chun; Goh, Mark

2012-01-01

The return guidelines for a mass merchandiser usually entail a grace period, a markdown on the original price and the condition of the returned items. This research utilises eight scenarios formed from the variation of possible return guidelines to model the cost functions of single-product categories for a typical mass merchandiser. Models for the eight scenarios are developed and solved with the objective of maximising the expected profit so as to obtain closed form solutions for the associated optimal order quantity. An illustrative example and sensitivity analysis are provided to demonstrate the applicability of the model. Our results show that merchandisers who allow for returns within a time window, albeit with a penalty cost imposed and the returned products being recoverable, should plan for larger order amounts as such products do not affect the business. Similarly, the merchandisers who allow for returns beyond a grace period and without any penalty charges, but where the returned products are irrecoverable, should manage their stocks in this category more judiciously by ordering as little as possible so as to limit the number of returns and carefully consider the effects of their customer satisfaction-guaranteed policies, if any.

Framing 100-year overflowing and overtopping marine submersion hazard resulting from the propagation of 100-year joint hydrodynamic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicolae Lerma, A.; Bulteau, T.; Elineau, S.; Paris, F.; Pedreros, R.

2016-12-01

Marine submersion is an increasing concern for coastal cities as urban development reinforces their vulnerabilities while climate change is likely to foster the frequency and magnitude of submersions. Characterising the coastal flooding hazard is therefore of paramount importance to ensure the security of people living in such places and for coastal planning. A hazard is commonly defined as an adverse phenomenon, often represented by a magnitude of a variable of interest (e.g. flooded area), hereafter called response variable, associated with a probability of exceedance or, alternatively, a return period. Characterising the coastal flooding hazard consists in finding the correspondence between the magnitude and the return period. The difficulty lies in the fact that the assessment is usually performed using physical numerical models taking as inputs scenarios composed by multiple forcing conditions that are most of the time interdependent. Indeed, a time series of the response variable is usually not available so we have to deal instead with time series of forcing variables (e.g. water level, waves). Thus, the problem is twofold: on the one hand, the definition of scenarios is a multivariate matter; on the other hand, it is tricky and approximate to associate the resulting response, being the output of the physical numerical model, to the return period defined for the scenarios. In this study, we illustrate the problem on the district of Leucate, located in the French Mediterranean coast. A multivariate extreme value analysis of waves and water levels is performed offshore using a conditional extreme model, then two different methods are used to define and select 100-year scenarios of forcing variables: one based on joint exceedance probability contours, a method classically used in coastal risks studies, the other based on environmental contours, which are commonly used in the field of structure design engineering. We show that these two methods enable one to frame the true 100-year response variable. The selected scenarios are propagated to the shore through a high resolution flood modelling coupling overflowing and overtopping processes. Results in terms of inundated areas and inland water volumes are finally compared for the two methods, giving upper and lower bounds for the true response variables.

A New Insight into Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for Central India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandal, H. S.; Shukla, A. K.; Khan, P. K.; Mishra, O. P.

2013-12-01

The Son-Narmada-Tapti lineament and its surroundings of Central India (CI) is the second most important tectonic regime following the converging margin along Himalayas-Myanmar-Andaman of the Indian sub-continent, which attracted several geoscientists to assess its seismic hazard potential. Our study area, a part of CI, is bounded between latitudes 18°-26°N and longitudes 73°-83°E, representing a stable part of Peninsular India. Past damaging moderate magnitude earthquakes as well as continuing microseismicity in the area provided enough data for seismological study. Our estimates based on regional Gutenberg-Richter relationship showed lower b values (i.e., between 0.68 and 0.76) from the average for the study area. The Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis carried out over the area with a radius of ~300 km encircling Bhopal yielded a conspicuous relationship between earthquake return period ( T) and peak ground acceleration (PGA). Analyses of T and PGA shows that PGA value at bedrock varies from 0.08 to 0.15 g for 10 % ( T = 475 years) and 2 % ( T = 2,475 years) probabilities exceeding 50 years, respectively. We establish the empirical relationships and between zero period acceleration (ZPA) and shear wave velocity up to a depth of 30 m [ V s (30)] for the two different return periods. These demonstrate that the ZPA values decrease with increasing shear wave velocity, suggesting a diagnostic indicator for designing the structures at a specific site of interest. The predictive designed response spectra generated at a site for periods up to 4.0 s at 10 and 2 % probability of exceedance of ground motion for 50 years can be used for designing duration dependent structures of variable vertical dimension. We infer that this concept of assimilating uniform hazard response spectra and predictive design at 10 and 2 % probability of exceedance in 50 years at 5 % damping at bedrocks of different categories may offer potential inputs for designing earthquake resistant structures of variable dimensions for the CI region under the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program for India.

Atmospheric CH4 Concentrations from the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) GASLAB Flask Sampling Network (1984 - 2001)

DOE Data Explorer

Steele, L. P. [Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), Aspendale, Victoria, Australia; Krummel, P. B. [Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), Aspendale, Victoria, Australia; Langenfelds, R. L. [Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), Aspendale, Victoria, Australia

2003-01-01

The listed data were obtained from flask air samples returned to the CSIRO GASLAB for analysis. Typical sample storage times ranged from days to weeks for some sites (e.g., Cape Grim) to as much as one year for Macquarie Island and the Antarctic sites. Experiments carried out to test for any change in sample CH4 mixing ratio during storage have shown no drift to within detection limits over test periods of several months to years (Cooper et al., 1999).

Evaluation of functional outcomes and complications following modified Latarjet reconstruction in athletes with anterior shoulder instability

PubMed Central

van der Watt, Christelle; de Beer, Joe F

2015-01-01

Background The optimal management of anterior shoulder instability in athletes continues to be a challenge. The present study aimed to evaluate the functional outcomes of athletes with anterior shoulder instability following modified Latarjet reconstruction through assessing the timing of return to sport and complications. Methods Retrospective assessment was performed of athletes (n = 56) who presented with recurrent anterior shoulder instability and were treated with modified congruent arc Latarjet reconstruction over a 1-year period. Rugby union was the predominant sport performed. Pre-operative instability severity index scores were assessed. Postoperative complications were recorded as was the time taken for the athlete to return to sport. Results Arthroscopic evaluation revealed that 86% of patients had associated bony lesions affecting the glenohumeral joint. The overall complication rate relating to the Latarjet reconstruction was 7%. No episodes of recurrent shoulder instability were noted. Of the patients, 89% returned to competitive sport at the same level as that prior to surgery. The mean time post surgery to returning to full training was 3.2 months. Conclusions The modified congruent arc Latarjet procedure facilitates early rehabilitation and return to sport. These results support our systematic management protocol of performing modified Latarjet surgery in contact sport athletes with recurrent anterior instability. PMID:27582973

High-resolution stratigraphy and multiple luminescence dating techniques to reveal the paleoseismic history of the central Dead Sea fault (Yammouneh fault, Lebanon)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Béon, Maryline; Tseng, Ya-Chu; Klinger, Yann; Elias, Ata; Kunz, Alexander; Sursock, Alexandre; Daëron, Mathieu; Tapponnier, Paul; Jomaa, Rachid

2018-07-01

Continuous sedimentation and detailed stratigraphy are key parameters for a complete paleo-earthquake record. Here, we present a new paleoseismological study across the main strike-slip fault branch of the Dead Sea fault in Lebanon. We aim to expand the current knowledge on local paleoseismicity and seismic behavior of strike-slip plate boundary faults and to explore the limitations of paleoseismology and dating methods. The trench, dug in the Jbab el-Homr basin, reveals a succession of remarkable, very thin (0.1 to 5 cm) palustrine and lacustrine layers, ruptured by at least 17 earthquakes. Absolute ages of 4 samples are obtained from three luminescence-dating techniques targeting fine-grain minerals. Blue-green stimulated luminescence (BGSL) on quartz and post-infrared infrared-stimulated luminescence at 225 °C on polymineral aliquots led to consistent ages, while ages from infrared-stimulated luminescence at 50 °C on polymineral aliquots appeared underestimated. The quartz BGSL ages are 26.9 ± 2.3 ka at 0.50 m depth and 30.8 ± 2.9 ka at 3.65 m depth. During this time period of 3.9 ka ([0; 9.1 ka]), 14 surface-rupturing events occurred with a mean return time of 280 years ([0; 650 years]) and probable clustering. This return time is much shorter than the 1127 ± 135 years return time previously determined at the Yammouneh site, located 30 km south. Although fault segmentation and temporal variations in the earthquake cycle remain possible causes for such different records, we argue that the high-resolution stratigraphy in Jbab is the main factor, enabling us to record small deformations related to smaller-magnitude events that may have been missed in the rougher strata of Yammouneh. Indeed, focusing only on larger events of Jbab, we obtain a mean return time of 720 years ([0; 1670 years]) that is compatible with the Yammouneh record.

Economic analysis of waste-to-energy industry in China.

PubMed

Zhao, Xin-Gang; Jiang, Gui-Wu; Li, Ang; Wang, Ling

2016-02-01

The generation of municipal solid waste is further increasing in China with urbanization and improvement of living standards. The "12th five-year plan" period (2011-2015) promotes waste-to-energy technologies for the harmless disposal and recycling of municipal solid waste. Waste-to-energy plant plays an important role for reaching China's energy conservation and emission reduction targets. Industrial policies and market prospect of waste-to-energy industry are described. Technology, cost and benefit of waste-to-energy plant are also discussed. Based on an economic analysis of a waste-to-energy project in China (Return on Investment, Net Present Value, Internal Rate of Return, and Sensitivity Analysis) the paper makes the conclusions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Bivariate return period for levee failure monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isola, M.; Caporali, E.

2017-12-01

Levee breaches are strongly linked with the interaction processes among water, soil and structure, thus many are the factors that affect the breach development. One of the main is the hydraulic load, characterized by intensity and duration, i.e. by the flood event hydrograph. On the magnitude of the hydraulic load is based the levee design, generally without considering the fatigue failure due to the load duration. Moreover, many are the cases in which the levee breach are characterized by flood of magnitude lower than the design one. In order to implement the strategies of flood risk management, we built here a procedure based on a multivariate statistical analysis of flood peak and volume together with the analysis of the past levee failure events. Particularly, in order to define the probability of occurrence of the hydraulic load on a levee, a bivariate copula model is used to obtain the bivariate joint distribution of flood peak and volume. Flood peak is the expression of the load magnitude, while the volume is the expression of the stress over time. We consider the annual flood peak and the relative volume. The volume is given by the hydrograph area between the beginning and the end of event. The beginning of the event is identified as an abrupt rise of the discharge by more than 20%. The end is identified as the point from which the receding limb is characterized by the baseflow, using a nonlinear reservoir algorithm as baseflow separation technique. By this, with the aim to define warning thresholds we consider the past levee failure events and the relative bivariate return period (BTr) compared with the estimation of a traditional univariate model. The discharge data of 30 hydrometric stations of Arno River in Tuscany, Italy, in the period 1995-2016 are analysed. The database of levee failure events, considering for each event the location as well as the failure mode, is also created. The events were registered in the period 2000-2014 by EEA-Europe Environment Agency, the Italian Civil Protection and ISPRA (the Italian National Institute for Environmental Protection and Research). Only two levee failures events occurred in the sub-basin of Era River have been detected and analysed. The estimated return period with the univariate model of flood peak is greater than 2 and 5 years while the BTr is greater of 25 and 30 years respectively.

Finding shelter: two-year housing trajectories among homeless youth.

PubMed

Tevendale, Heather D; Comulada, W Scott; Lightfoot, Marguerita A

2011-12-01

The aim of this study was to (1) identify trajectories of homeless youth remaining sheltered or returning to shelter over a period of 2 years, and (2) to identify predictors of these trajectories. A sample of 426 individuals aged 14-24 years receiving services at homeless youth serving agencies completed six assessments over 2 years. Latent class growth analysis was applied to the reports of whether youth had been inconsistently sheltered (i.e., living on the street or in a squat, abandoned building, or automobile) or consistently sheltered (i.e., not living in any of those settings) during the past 3 months. Three trajectories of homeless youth remaining sheltered or returning to shelter were identified: consistently sheltered (approximately 41% of the sample); inconsistently sheltered, short-term (approximately 20%); and inconsistently sheltered, long-term (approximately 39%). Being able to go home and having not left of one's own accord predicted greater likelihood of membership in the short-term versus the long-term inconsistently sheltered trajectory. Younger age, not using drugs other than alcohol or marijuana, less involvement in informal sector activities, being able to go home, and having been homeless for <1 year predicted membership in the consistently sheltered groups versus the long-term inconsistently sheltered groups in the multivariate analyses. Findings suggest that being able to return home is more important than the degree of individual impairment (e.g., substance use or mental health problems) when determining the likelihood that a homeless youth follows a more or a less chronically homeless pathway. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Computing return times or return periods with rare event algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lestang, Thibault; Ragone, Francesco; Bréhier, Charles-Edouard; Herbert, Corentin; Bouchet, Freddy

2018-04-01

The average time between two occurrences of the same event, referred to as its return time (or return period), is a useful statistical concept for practical applications. For instance insurances or public agencies may be interested by the return time of a 10 m flood of the Seine river in Paris. However, due to their scarcity, reliably estimating return times for rare events is very difficult using either observational data or direct numerical simulations. For rare events, an estimator for return times can be built from the extrema of the observable on trajectory blocks. Here, we show that this estimator can be improved to remain accurate for return times of the order of the block size. More importantly, we show that this approach can be generalised to estimate return times from numerical algorithms specifically designed to sample rare events. So far those algorithms often compute probabilities, rather than return times. The approach we propose provides a computationally extremely efficient way to estimate numerically the return times of rare events for a dynamical system, gaining several orders of magnitude of computational costs. We illustrate the method on two kinds of observables, instantaneous and time-averaged, using two different rare event algorithms, for a simple stochastic process, the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. As an example of realistic applications to complex systems, we finally discuss extreme values of the drag on an object in a turbulent flow.

Long-Term Properties of Accretion Discs in X-ray Binaries. 1; The Variable Third Period in SMC X-1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Charles, P. A.; Clarkson, W. I.; Coe, M. J.; Laycock, S.; Tout, M.; Wilson, C.; Six, N. Frank (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Long term X-ray monitoring data from the RXTE All Sky Monitor (ASM) reveal that the third (superorbital) period in SMC X-1 is not constant but varies between 40-60 days. A dynamic power spectrum analysis indicates that the third period has been present continuously throughout the five years of ASM observations. This period changed smoothly from 60 days to 45 days and then returned to its former value, on a timescale of approximately 1600 days. During the nearly 4 years of overlap between the CGRO & RXTE missions, the simultaneous BATSE hard X-ray data confirm this variation in SMC X-1. Sources of systematic error and possible artefacts are investigated and found to be incapable of reproducing the results reported here. Our disco cry of such an instability in the superorbital period of SMC X-1 is interpreted in the context of recent theoretical studies of warped, precessing accretion discs. We find that the behaviour of SMC X-1 is consistent with a radiation - driven warping model.

Fire History of a Forest, Savanna, and Fen Mosaic at White Ranch State Forest

Treesearch

Daniel C. Dey; Ricahrd P. Guyette; Michael C. Stambaugh

2004-01-01

We present the fire history of a 1-km2 area that is a mosaic of oak forest, savanna, and fen on the White Ranch State Forest, Howell County, Missouri. We dated 135 fire scars on 35 cross-sections of post oak ( Quercus stellata) trees and constructed a fire chronology dating from 1705 to 1997. Mean fire return intervals by periods were 3.7 years (...

Modelling hydrology of a single bioretention system with HYDRUS-1D.

PubMed

Meng, Yingying; Wang, Huixiao; Chen, Jiangang; Zhang, Shuhan

2014-01-01

A study was carried out on the effectiveness of bioretention systems to abate stormwater using computer simulation. The hydrologic performance was simulated for two bioretention cells using HYDRUS-1D, and the simulation results were verified by field data of nearly four years. Using the validated model, the optimization of design parameters of rainfall return period, filter media depth and type, and surface area was discussed. And the annual hydrologic performance of bioretention systems was further analyzed under the optimized parameters. The study reveals that bioretention systems with underdrains and impervious boundaries do have some detention capability, while their total water retention capability is extremely limited. Better detention capability is noted for smaller rainfall events, deeper filter media, and design storms with a return period smaller than 2 years, and a cost-effective filter media depth is recommended in bioretention design. Better hydrologic effectiveness is achieved with a higher hydraulic conductivity and ratio of the bioretention surface area to the catchment area, and filter media whose conductivity is between the conductivity of loamy sand and sandy loam, and a surface area of 10% of the catchment area is recommended. In the long-term simulation, both infiltration volume and evapotranspiration are critical for the total rainfall treatment in bioretention systems.

Flow Field Analysis of Fish Farm and Planting Area in Floodplain during Flood

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, M.; Tan, H. N.; Lo, W. C.; Tsai, C. T.

2017-12-01

Fish farms constructing and crops planting is common in floodplain in Taiwan. The physiographic soil erosion-deposition (PSED) model was applied to simulate the sediment yield, the runoff, and sediment transport rate of the river watershed corresponding to one-day rainstorms of the return periods of 25, 50, and 100 year. The variation of flow field in the river sections could be simulated by utilizing the alluvial river-movable bed two dimensional (ARMB-2D) model. The results reveal that the tendency of river discharge, sediment deposition and erosion obtained from these two models is agreeable by calibration and verification. The water flow affected by fish farms and planting areas in floodplain during flood was analyzed. Lastly, based on the simulation results obtained from the PESD and ARMB-2D models for one-day rainstorms of the return periods of 25, 50, and 100 year, the illegal fish farms and planting area with severe variations of river flow and affected he capability for flood conveyance will be referred to as the demolishing-to-be areas. We could also suggest the management strategy of application for fish farms constructing and crops planting in river areas by incorporating the ability of our model to provide information of river flow to enhance the flood conveyance.

Angola seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neto, Francisco António Pereira; França, George Sand; Condori, Cristobal; Sant'Anna Marotta, Giuliano; Chimpliganond, Cristiano Naibert

2018-05-01

This work describes the development of the Angolan earthquake catalog and seismicity distribution in the Southwestern African Plate, in Angola. This region is one of the least seismically active, even for stable continental regions (SCRs) in the world. The maximum known earthquake had a magnitude of 6.0 Ms, while events with magnitudes of 4.5 have return period of about 10 years. Events with magnitude 5 and above occur with return period of about 20 years. Five seismic zones can be confirmed in Angola, within and along craton edges and in the sedimentary basins including offshore. Overall, the exposed cratonic regions tend to have more earthquakes compared to other regions such as sedimentary basins. Earthquakes tend to occur in Archaic rocks, especially inside preexisting weakness zones and in tectonic-magmatic reactivation zones of Mesozoic and Meso-Cenozoic, associated with the installation of a wide variety of intrusive rocks, strongly marked by intense tectonism. This fact can be explained by the models of preexisting weakness zones and stress concentration near intersecting structures. The Angolan passive margin is also a new region where seismic activity occurs. Although clear differences are found between different areas along the passive margin, in the middle near Porto Amboim city, seismic activity is more frequent compared with northwestern and southwestern regions.

Empirical rainfall thresholds for the triggering of landslides in Asturias (NW Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valenzuela, Pablo; Luís Zêzere, José; José Domínguez-Cuesta, María; Mora García, Manuel Antonio

2017-04-01

Rainfall-triggered landslides are common and widespread phenomena in Asturias, a mountainous region in the NW of Spain where the climate is characterized by average annual precipitation and temperature values of 960 mm and 13.3°C respectively. Different types of landslides (slides, flows and rockfalls) frequently occur during intense rainfall events, causing every year great economic losses and sometimes human injuries or fatalities. For this reason, its temporal forecast is of great interest. The main goal of the present research is the calculation of empirical rainfall thresholds for the triggering of landslides in the Asturian region, following the methodology described by Zêzere et al., 2015. For this purpose, data from 559 individual landslides collected from press archives during a period of eight hydrological years (October 2008-September 2016) and gathered within the BAPA landslide database (http://geol.uniovi.es/BAPA) were used. Precipitation data series of 37 years came from 6 weather stations representative of the main geographical and climatic conditions within the study area. Applied methodology includes: (i) the definition of landslide events, (ii) the reconstruction of the cumulative antecedent rainfall for each event from 1 to 90 consecutive days, (iii) the estimation of the return period for each cumulated rainfall-duration condition using Gumbel probability distribution, (iv) the definition of the critical cumulated rainfall-duration conditions taking into account the highest return period, (v) the calculation of the thresholds considering both the conditions for the occurrence and non-occurrence of landslides. References: Zêzere, J.L., Vaz, T., Pereira, S., Oliveira, S.C., Marqués, R., García, R.A.C. 2015. Rainfall thresholds for landslide activity in Portugal: a state of the art. Environmental Earth Sciences, 73, 2917-2936. doi: 10.1007/s12665-014-3672-0

Follow-up: orthognathic surgery. Is there a future? A national survey.

PubMed

Zins, James E; Morrison, Colin M; Gonzalez, Andrea Moreira; Altus, Gene D; Bena, James

2008-08-01

The authors recently documented a significant decrease in orthognathic surgical cases performed by both plastic and oral surgeons in Ohio over a recent 5-year period. The main reason noted was related to third-party reimbursement. This is a potentially serious issue that may affect the quality of health care for patients with dentofacial deformities. Therefore, an expanded survey was conducted to determine whether this was indicative of a national trend. A three-page questionnaire was sent nationally to plastic surgeons and oral surgeons who were members of the American Society of Maxillofacial Surgery and the American Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons, respectively. Surveys requested information regarding changes in the number of orthognathic operations over a 5-year period (1999-2003) and reasons for these changes. Of the 3273 surveys sent, 883 were returned, representing an overall response rate of 27 percent. Of the 883 returned, 771 (87.3 percent) were completed by oral surgeons and 112 (12.7 percent) were completed by plastic surgeons. The majority surveyed (70.0 percent) noted a decrease in the number of orthognathic procedures performed over a 5-year period, and 443 (77.3 percent) stated that the decrease was attributable to problems with insurance. Professional reimbursement per hour was calculated based on data collected from consecutive operations performed at the authors' institution. These data demonstrated that reimbursement per hour is significantly lower when orthognathic surgery procedures were compared with other standard plastic surgery operations. Orthognathic surgery may rapidly be becoming a cosmetic procedure. This has the potential of creating a two-tier system whereby only those who can afford it will undergo orthognathic correction.

A model of determining a fair market value for teaching residents: who profits?

PubMed

Cullen, Edward J; Lawless, Stephen T; Hertzog, James H; Penfil, Scott; Bradford, Kathleen K; Nadkarni, Vinay M; Corddry, David H; Costarino, Andrew T

2003-07-01

Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) Health Resources and Services Administration Children's Hospitals Graduate Medical Education (GME) Payment Program now supports freestanding children's teaching hospitals. To analyze the fair market value impact of GME payment on resident teaching efforts in our pediatric intensive care unit (PICU). Cost-accounting model, developed from a 1-year retrospective, descriptive, single-institution, longitudinal study, applied to physician teachers, residents, and CMS. Sixteen-bed PICU in a freestanding, university-affiliated children's teaching hospital. Pediatric critical care physicians, second-year residents. Cost of physician opportunity time; CMS investment return; the teaching physicians' investment return; residents' investment return; service balance between CMS and teaching service investment margins; economic balance points; fair market value. GME payments to our hospital increased 4.8-fold from 577 886 dollars to 2 772 606 dollars during a 1-year period. Critical care physicians' teaching opportunity cost rose from 250 097 dollars to 262 215 dollars to provide 1523 educational hours (6853 relative value units). Residents' net financial value for service provided to the PICU rose from 245 964 dollars to 317 299 dollars. There is an uneven return on investment in resident education for CMS, critical care physicians, and residents. Economic balance points are achievable for the present educational efforts of the CMS, critical care physicians, and residents if the present direct medical education payment increases from 29.38% to 36%. The current CMS Health Resources and Services Administration Children's Hospitals GME Payment Program produces uneven investment returns for CMS, critical care physicians, and residents. We propose a cost-accounting model, based on perceived production capability measured in relative value units and available GME funds, that would allow a clinical service to balance and obtain a fair market value for the resident education efforts of CMS, physician teachers, and residents.

Impact of PACS on dictation turnaround time and productivity.

PubMed

Lepanto, Luigi; Paré, Guy; Aubry, David; Robillard, Pierre; Lesage, Jacques

2006-03-01

This study was conducted to measure the impact of PACS on dictation turnaround time and productivity. The radiology information system (RIS) database was interrogated to calculate the time interval between image production and dictation for every exam performed during three 90-day periods (the 3 months preceding PACS implementation, the 3 months immediately following PACS deployment, and a 3-month period 1 year after PACS implementation). Data were obtained for three exam types: chest radiographs, abdominal CT, and spine MRI. The mean dictation turnaround times obtained during the different pre- and post-PACS periods were compared using analysis of variance (ANOVA). Productivity was also determined for each period and for each exam type, and was expressed as the number of studies interpreted per full-time equivalent (FTE) radiologist. In the immediate post-PACS period, dictation turnaround time decreased 20% (p < 0.001) for radiography, but increased 13% (ns) for CT and 28% (p < 0.001) for MRI. One year after PACS was implemented, dictation turnaround time decreased 45% (p < 0.001) for radiography and 36% (p < 0.001) for MRI. For CT, 1 year post-PACS, turnaround times returned to pre-PACS levels. Productivity in the immediate post-PACS period increased 3% and 38% for radiography and CT, respectively, whereas a 6% decrease was observed for MRI. One year after implementation, productivity increased 27%, 98%, and 19% in radiography, CT, and MRI, respectively. PACS benefits, namely, shortened dictation turnaround time and increased productivity, are evident 1 year after PACS implementation. In the immediate post-PACS period, results vary with the different imaging modalities.

The combined risk of extreme tropical cyclone winds and storm surges along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trepanier, J. C.; Yuan, J.; Jagger, T. H.

2017-03-01

Tropical cyclones, with their nearshore high wind speeds and deep storm surges, frequently strike the United States Gulf of Mexico coastline influencing millions of people and disrupting offshore economic activities. The combined risk of occurrence of tropical cyclone nearshore wind speeds and storm surges is assessed at 22 coastal cities throughout the United States Gulf of Mexico. The models used are extreme value copulas fitted with margins defined by the generalized Pareto distribution or combinations of Weibull, gamma, lognormal, or normal distributions. The statistical relationships between the nearshore wind speed and storm surge are provided for each coastal city prior to the copula model runs using Spearman's rank correlations. The strongest significant relationship between the nearshore wind speed and storm surge exists at Shell Beach, LA (ρ = 0.67), followed by South Padre Island, TX (ρ = 0.64). The extreme value Archimedean copula models for each city then provide return periods for specific nearshore wind speed and storm surge pairs. Of the 22 cities considered, Bay St. Louis, MS, has the shortest return period for a tropical cyclone with at least a 50 ms-1 nearshore wind speed and a 3 m surge (19.5 years, 17.1-23.5). The 90% confidence intervals are created by recalculating the return periods for a fixed set of wind speeds and surge levels using 100 samples of the model parameters. The results of this study can be utilized by policy managers and government officials concerned with coastal populations and economic activity in the Gulf of Mexico.

Validation of a 30 m resolution flood hazard model of the conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wing, Oliver E. J.; Bates, Paul D.; Sampson, Christopher C.; Smith, Andrew M.; Johnson, Kris A.; Erickson, Tyler A.

2017-09-01

This paper reports the development of a ˜30 m resolution two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the conterminous U.S. using only publicly available data. The model employs a highly efficient numerical solution of the local inertial form of the shallow water equations which simulates fluvial flooding in catchments down to 50 km2 and pluvial flooding in all catchments. Importantly, we use the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Elevation Dataset to determine topography; the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers National Levee Dataset to explicitly represent known flood defenses; and global regionalized flood frequency analysis to characterize return period flows and rainfalls. We validate these simulations against the complete catalogue of Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) maps and detailed local hydraulic models developed by the USGS. Where the FEMA SFHAs are based on high-quality local models, the continental-scale model attains a hit rate of 86%. This correspondence improves in temperate areas and for basins above 400 km2. Against the higher quality USGS data, the average hit rate reaches 92% for the 1 in 100 year flood, and 90% for all flood return periods. Given typical hydraulic modeling uncertainties in the FEMA maps and USGS model outputs (e.g., errors in estimating return period flows), it is probable that the continental-scale model can replicate both to within error. The results show that continental-scale models may now offer sufficient rigor to inform some decision-making needs with dramatically lower cost and greater coverage than approaches based on a patchwork of local studies.

Calculating the return on investment of mobile healthcare.

PubMed

Oriol, Nancy E; Cote, Paul J; Vavasis, Anthony P; Bennet, Jennifer; Delorenzo, Darien; Blanc, Philip; Kohane, Isaac

2009-06-02

Mobile health clinics provide an alternative portal into the healthcare system for the medically disenfranchised, that is, people who are underinsured, uninsured or who are otherwise outside of mainstream healthcare due to issues of trust, language, immigration status or simply location. Mobile health clinics as providers of last resort are an essential component of the healthcare safety net providing prevention, screening, and appropriate triage into mainstream services. Despite the face value of providing services to underserved populations, a focused analysis of the relative value of the mobile health clinic model has not been elucidated. The question that the return on investment algorithm has been designed to answer is: can the value of the services provided by mobile health programs be quantified in terms of quality adjusted life years saved and estimated emergency department expenditures avoided? Using a sample mobile health clinic and published research that quantifies health outcomes, we developed and tested an algorithm to calculate the return on investment of a typical broad-service mobile health clinic: the relative value of mobile health clinic services = annual projected emergency department costs avoided + value of potential life years saved from the services provided. Return on investment ratio = the relative value of the mobile health clinic services/annual cost to run the mobile health clinic. Based on service data provided by The Family Van for 2008 we calculated the annual cost savings from preventing emergency room visits, $3,125,668 plus the relative value of providing 7 of the top 25 priority prevention services during the same period, US$17,780,000 for a total annual value of $20,339,968. Given that the annual cost to run the program was $567,700, the calculated return on investment of The Family Van was 36:1. By using published data that quantify the value of prevention practices and the value of preventing unnecessary use of emergency departments, an empirical method was developed to determine the value of a typical mobile health clinic. The Family Van, a mobile health clinic that has been serving the medically disenfranchised of Boston for 16 years, was evaluated accordingly and found to have return on investment of $36 for every $1 invested in the program.

Nocardia transvalensis keratitis: an emerging pathology among travelers returning from Asia.

PubMed

Trichet, Elodie; Cohen-Bacrie, Stéphan; Conrath, John; Drancourt, Michel; Hoffart, Louis

2011-10-31

The incidence rate of Nocardia keratitis is increasing, with new species identified thanks to molecular methods. We herein report a case of Nocardia transvalensis keratitis, illustrating this emerging pathology among travellers returning from Asia. A 23-year-old man presented with a 10-week history of ocular pain, redness, and blurred vision in his right eye following a projectile foreign body impacting the cornea while motor biking in Thaïland. At presentation, a central epithelial defect with a central whitish stromal infiltrate associated with pinhead satellite infiltrates was observed. Identification with 16S rRNA PCR sequencing and microbiological culture of corneal scraping and revealed N. transvalensis as the causative organism. Treatment was initiated with intensive topical amikacin, oral ketoconazole and oral doxycycline. After a four-week treatment period, the corneal infiltrate decreased so that only a faint subepithelial opacity remained. Nocardia organisms should be suspected as the causative agent of any case of keratitis in travelers returning from Asia. With appropriate therapy, Nocardia keratitis resolves, resulting in good visual outcome.

Predictors for return to work for those with occupational respiratory disease: clinical and structural factors.

PubMed

Zoeckler, Jeanette M; Cibula, Donald A; Morley, Christopher P; Lax, Michael B

2013-12-01

Few occupational researchers have examined "return to work" among patients with work-related respiratory diseases. In addition, prior studies have emphasized individual patient characteristics rather than a more multi-dimensional approach that includes both clinical and structural factors. A retrospective chart review identified patients with occupational respiratory diseases in the Occupational Health Clinical Center, Syracuse, NY between 1991 and 2009. We assessed predictors of work status using an exploratory, sequential mixed methods research design, multinomial (n = 188) and Cox regressions (n = 130). The findings suggest that patients with an increased number of diagnoses, non-union members, and those who took more than a year before clinical presentation had significantly poorer work status outcomes, after adjusting for age, education level, and relevant diagnoses. Efforts to prevent slow return to work after developing occupational respiratory disease should recognize the importance of timely access to occupational health services, disease severity, union membership, and smoking status. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

[Plasmodium malariae malaria with more than a 4-month incubation period: difficult to distinguish from a relapse of Plasmodium vivax malaria].

PubMed

Hase, Ryota; Uwamino, Yoshifumi; Muranaka, Kiyoharu; Tochitani, Kentaro; Sogi, Misa; Kitazono, Hidetaka; Hosokawa, Naoto

2013-07-01

We report herein on a case of Plasmodium malariae malaria with more than a 4-month incubation period. A 35-year-old Japanese man who first presented to our clinic with fever and history of travel to Papua New Guinea was suspected of having Plasmodium vivax malaria based on peripheral smear results. We admitted him and initiated treatment with mefloquine. After two days of therapy, he became afebrile. We discharged him, and P. vivax was later confirmed with PCR. We started mefloquine prophylaxis for a planned trip to Papua New Guinea. After his return, a standard dose of primaquine (15 mg x 14 days) was prescribed for a radical cure of P. vivax. About 4 months after his last visit to Papua New Guinea, he returned to our clinic with fever. We suspected a relapse of P. vivax malaria and admitted him for a second time. After two days of mefloquine therapy, his symptoms improved. We discharged him and restarted a higher dose of primaquine (30 mg x 14 days) therapy for a radical cure of P. vivax. Subsequently, the PCR test revealed the parasite was P. malariae and not P. vivax. Only 13 cases of Plasmodium malariae malaria have been reported in Japan during the past 10 years. Blood-stage schizonticides such as mefloquine is not active against the liver stage. Therefore, the use of these drugs for prophylaxis will not be effective for prevention of malaria if its liver stage is longer than the duration of effective chemoprophylaxis. Although the incubation period of P. malariae is typically 13 to 28 days, it occasionally lasts for months or even years. Careful attention should be given to the possibility that P. malariae occasionally has a long incubation period even in the absence of the hypnozoite stage.

Managing River Resources: A Case Study Of The Damodar River, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharyya, K.

2008-12-01

The Damodar River, a subsystem of the Ganga has always been a flood-prone river. Recorded flood history of the endemic flood prone river can be traced from 1730 onwards. People as well as governments through out the centuries have dealt with the caprices of this vital water resource using different strategies. At one level, the river has been controlled using structures such as embankments, weir, dams and barrage. In the post-independent period, a high powered organization known as the Damodar Valley Corporation (DVC), modeled on the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) came into existence on 7th July 1948. Since the completion of the reservoirs the Lower Damodar has become a 'reservoir channel' and is now identified by control structures or cultural features or man made indicators. Man-induced hydrographs below control points during post-dam period (1959-2007) show decreased monsoon discharge, and reduced peak discharge. In pre-dam period (1933-1956) return period of floods of bankfull stage of 7080 m3/s had a recurrence interval of 2 years. In post-dam period the return period for the bankfull stage has been increased to 14 years. The Damodar River peak discharge during pre-dam period for various return periods are much greater than the post-dam flows for the same return periods. Despite flood moderation by the DVC dams, floods visited the river demonstrating that the lower valley is still vulnerable to sudden floods. Contemporary riverbed consists of series of alluvial bars or islands, locally known as mana or char lands which are used as a resource base mostly by Bengali refugees. At another level, people have shown great resourcefulness in living with and adjusting to the floods and dams while living on the alluvial bars. People previously used river resources in the form of silt only but now the semi-fluid or flexible resource has been exploited into a permanent resource in the form of productive sandbars. Valuable long-term data from multiple sources has been used in this study to track flow regime and sedimentation characteristics. Data from topographical maps, cadastral or mouza maps, and satellite images has been consolidated. Significant stress has been given on extensive and intensive field survey in order to assess human perception, adaptability and resource management in the sandbars or char lands. The Damodar River is located in West Bengal, India but the findings on the controlled Lower Damodar are not exclusive to this river. These findings may help in managing water resources in other regulated rivers in India or outside India. The primary objectives of this paper have been to trace the impact of control measures on discharge, sedimentation characteristics and consequent changes in the perception and adjustment of the riverbed occupiers to life with floods and dams. In this age of heightened environmental awareness, we all know that the survival of our civilization depends on rational and constructive maintenance and use of our river resources. The major challenge in the coming decade is to develop a holistic and sustainable river management system that will be environmentally accountable, socially acceptable and economically feasible. The primary issue to be addressed, therefore, is not whether dams are needed but how a river system is cared for in the presence of floods, dams and islanders. River resources should be treated as economic assets since ongoing economic development depends on a riverine regime that is ecologically sound. These worthwhile goals, however, will remain out of reach unless we have effective government policy and the legal structure to support it.

Importation of malaria into the USSR from Afghanistan, 1981-89.

PubMed Central

Sergiev, V. P.; Baranova, A. M.; Orlov, V. S.; Mihajlov, L. G.; Kouznetsov, R. L.; Neujmin, N. I.; Arsenieva, L. P.; Shahova, M. A.; Glagoleva, L. A.; Osipova, M. M.

1993-01-01

Between 1981 and 1989, a total of 7683 cases of Plasmodium vivax [corrected] malaria were imported into the USSR from Afghanistan, mainly by demobilized military personnel. For 23.8% of these cases the clinical manifestations appeared within a month of returning to the USSR, for 22.5% after 1-3 months, for 20% after 4-6 months, for 2% after > 1 year, and for 0.6% after > 2 years. For 13 patients the clinical manifestations of malaria appeared 3 years after returning from Afghanistan (up to 38 months). Nearly 69% of the patients did not take malaria prophylaxis at all while they were in Afghanistan, and 19% took chloroquine irregularly. Only 12.5% of the patients received a full course of prophylactic treatment with primaquine before leaving Afghanistan. A total of 56% of the cases were detected during the period most favourable for malaria transmission in the USSR (May-September) and of these, half were imported into formerly malarious areas of the country. Activation of a surveillance system greatly reduced the consequences of the massive importation of malaria, to which the local vectors were susceptible. PMID:8324858

Debris Flow Simulation using FLO-2D on the 2004 Landslide Area of Real, General Nakar, and Infanta, Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llanes, F.; dela Resma, M.; Ferrer, P.; Realino, V.; Aquino, D. T.; Eco, R. C.; Lagmay, A.

2013-12-01

From November 14 to December 3, 2004, Luzon Island was ravaged by 4 successive typhoons: Typhoon Mufia, Tropical Storm Merbok, Tropical Depression Winnie, and Super Typhoon Nanmadol. Tropical Depression Winnie was the most destructive of the four when it triggered landslides on November 29 that devastated the municipalities of Infanta, General Nakar, and Real in Quezon Province, southeast Luzon. Winnie formed east of Central Luzon on November 27 before it moved west-northwestward over southeastern Luzon on November 29. A total of 1,068 lives were lost and more than USD 170 million worth of damages to crops and infrastructure were incurred from the landslides triggered by Typhoon Winnie on November 29 and the flooding caused by the 4 typhoons. FLO-2D, a flood routing software for generating flood and debris flow hazard maps, was utilized to simulate the debris flows that could potentially affect the study area. Based from the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency analysis, the cumulative rainfall from typhoon Winnie on November 29 which was approximately 342 mm over a 9-hour period was classified within a 100-year return period. The Infanta station of the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) was no longer able to measure the amount of rainfall after this period because the rain gauge in that station was washed away by floods. Rainfall data with a 100-year return period was simulated over the watersheds delineated from a SAR-derived digital elevation model. The resulting debris flow hazard map was compared with results from field investigation and previous studies made on the landslide event. The simulation identified 22 barangays (villages) with a total of 45,155 people at risk of turbulent flow and flooding.

Modeling post-fire sediment yield based on two burn scenarios at the Sooke Lake Reservoir, BC, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobre, Mariana; Elliot, William J.; Brooks, Erin S.; Smith, Tim

2016-04-01

Wildfires can have major adverse effects on municipal water sources. Local governments need methods to evaluate fire risk and to develop mitigation procedures. The Sooke Lake Reservoir is the primary source of water for the city of Victoria, BC and the concern is that sediment delivered from upland burned areas could have a detrimental impact on the reservoir and the water supply. We conducted a sediment delivery modeling pilot study on a portion of the Sooke Lake Reservoir (specifically, the Trestle Creek Management Unit (TCMU)) to evaluate the potential impacts of wildfire on sediment delivery from hillslopes and sub-catchments. We used a process-based hydrologic and soil erosion model called Water Erosion Prediction Project geospatial interface, GeoWEPP, to predict the sediment delivery from specific return period design storms for two burn severity scenarios: real (low-intensity burn severity) and worst (high-intensity burn severity) case scenarios. The GeoWEPP model allows users to simulate streamflow and erosion from hillslope polygons within a watershed. The model requires information on the topographic, soil and vegetative characteristics for each hillslope and a weather file. WEPP default values and several assumptions were necessary to apply the model where data were missing. Based on a 10-m DEM we delineated 16 watersheds within the TCMU area. A long term 100-year daily climate file was generated for this analysis using the CLIGEN model based on the historical observations recorded at Concrete, WA in United States, and adjusted for observed monthly precipitation observed in the Sooke Basin. We ran 100-year simulations and calculated yearly and event-based return periods (for 2, 5, 10, 20, 25, and 50 years) for each of the 16 watersheds. Overall, WEPP simulations indicate that the storms that are most likely to produce the greatest runoff and sediment load in these coastal, maritime climates with relatively low rainfall intensities are likely to occur in the winter when the soils are not water repellant. The erosion rates varied from 0.34 tonnes/ha/year to 37.3 tonnes/ha/year with the most vulnerable slopes being those associated with steep shallow soils. The summation of the 10-year return period annual delivered sediment from all the watersheds for the worst case scenario during winter months is 17% greater than the total sediment delivery for the real case scenarios. Despite the data limitations, this analysis provides insight into the critical watersheds that will be major source areas of sediment following a wildfire. Watershed managers can use this information to plan and prioritize post-wildfire rehabilitation strategies and actions to minimize the risk of sediment delivery from the hillslopes that generate the greatest amount of sediment.

Population-based burden of COPD-related visits in the ED: return ED visits, hospital admissions, and comorbidity risks.

PubMed

Yeatts, Karin B; Lippmann, Steven J; Waller, Anna E; Hassmiller Lich, Kristen; Travers, Debbie; Weinberger, Morris; Donohue, James F

2013-09-01

Little is known about the population-based burden of ED care for COPD. We analyzed statewide ED surveillance system data to quantify the frequency of COPD-related ED visits, hospital admissions, and comorbidities. In 2008 to 2009 in North Carolina, 97,511 COPD-related ED visits were made by adults ≥ 45 years of age, at an annual rate of 13.8 ED visits/1,000 person-years. Among patients with COPD (n = 33,799), 7% and 28% had a COPD-related return ED visit within a 30- and 365-day period of their index visit, respectively. Compared with patients on private insurance, Medicare, Medicaid, and noninsured patients were more likely to have a COPD-related return visit within 30 and 365 days and have three or more COPD-related visits within 365 days. There were no differences in return visits by sex. Fifty-one percent of patients with COPD were admitted to the hospital from the index ED visit. Subsequent hospital admission risk in the cohort increased with age, peaking at 65 to 69 years (risk ratio [RR], 1.41; 95% CI, 1.26-1.57); there was no difference by sex. Patients with congestive heart failure (RR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.22-1.37), substance-related disorders (RR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.13-1.60), or respiratory failure/supplemental oxygen (RR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.19-1.31) were more likely to have a subsequent hospital admission compared with patients without these comorbidities. The population-based burden of COPD-related care in the ED is significant. Further research is needed to understand variations in COPD-related ED visits and hospital admissions.

Rainfall erosivity and rainfall return period in the experimental watershed of Aracruz, in the Coastal Plain of Espirito Santo, Brazil

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The knowledge of the factors influencing water erosion is relevant to land management practices. Rainfall, expressed by rainfall erosivity, is very important among the factors affecting water erosion. Thus, the objective of this study was to determine rainfall erosivity and return period for the Coa...

27 CFR 40.163 - Semimonthly tax return periods.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... section 40.164, the periods to be covered by semimonthly tax returns shall be from the 1st day of each month through the 15th day of that month and from the 16th day of each month through the last day of that month. [T.D. ATF-365, 60 FR 33675, June 28, 1995] ...

26 CFR 31.6302-0T - Table of contents (temporary).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

..., the entries for § 31.6302-1(e) through (f)(3). (4) De minimis rule. (i) De minimis deposit rules for quarterly and annual return periods beginning or after January 1, 2001. (ii) De minimis deposit rule for quarterly return periods beginning on or after January 1, 2010. (iii) De minimis deposit rule for employers...

A combination SMS and transportation reimbursement intervention to improve HIV care following abnormal CD4 test results in rural Uganda: a prospective observational cohort study.

PubMed

Siedner, Mark J; Santorino, Data; Lankowski, Alexander J; Kanyesigye, Michael; Bwana, Mwebesa B; Haberer, Jessica E; Bangsberg, David R

2015-07-06

Up to 50 % of HIV-infected persons in sub-Saharan Africa are lost from care between HIV diagnosis and antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation. Structural barriers, including cost of transportation to clinic and poor communication systems, are major contributors. We conducted a prospective, pragmatic, before-and-after clinical trial to evaluate a combination mobile health and transportation reimbursement intervention to improve care at a publicly operated HIV clinic in Uganda. Patients undergoing CD4 count testing were enrolled, and clinicians selected a result threshold that would prompt early return for ART initiation or further care. Participants enrolled in the pre-intervention period (January - August 2012) served as a control group. Participants in the intervention period (September 2012 - November 2013) were randomized to receive daily short message service (SMS) messages for up to seven days in one of three formats: 1) messages reporting an abnormal result directly, 2) personal identification number-protected messages reporting an abnormal result, or 3) messages reading "ABCDEFG" to confidentially convey an abnormal result. Participants returning within seven days of their first message received transportation reimbursements (about $6USD). Our primary outcomes of interest were time to return to clinic and time to ART initiation. There were 45 participants in the pre-intervention period and 138 participants in the intervention period (46, 49, and 43 in the direct, PIN, and coded groups, respectively) with low CD4 count results. Median time to clinic return was 33 days (IQR 11-49) in the pre-intervention period and 6 days (IQR 3-16) in the intervention period (P < 0.001); and median time to ART initiation was 47 days (IQR 11-75) versus 12 days (IQR 5-19), (P < 0.001). In multivariable models, participants in the intervention period had earlier return to clinic (AHR 2.32, 95 %CI 1.53 to 3.51) and earlier time to ART initiation (AHR 2.27, 95 %CI 1.38 to 3.72). All three randomized message formats improved time to return to clinic and time to ART initiation (P < 0.01 for all comparisons versus the pre-intervention period). A combination of an SMS laboratory result communication system and transportation reimbursements significantly decreased time to clinic return and time to ART initiation after abnormal CD4 test results. Clinicaltrials.gov NCT01579214 , approved 13 April 2012.

Prediction of Return-to-original-work after an Industrial Accident Using Machine Learning and Comparison of Techniques

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Background Many studies have tried to develop predictors for return-to-work (RTW). However, since complex factors have been demonstrated to predict RTW, it is difficult to use them practically. This study investigated whether factors used in previous studies could predict whether an individual had returned to his/her original work by four years after termination of the worker's recovery period. Methods An initial logistic regression analysis of 1,567 participants of the fourth Panel Study of Worker's Compensation Insurance yielded odds ratios. The participants were divided into two subsets, a training dataset and a test dataset. Using the training dataset, logistic regression, decision tree, random forest, and support vector machine models were established, and important variables of each model were identified. The predictive abilities of the different models were compared. Results The analysis showed that only earned income and company-related factors significantly affected return-to-original-work (RTOW). The random forest model showed the best accuracy among the tested machine learning models; however, the difference was not prominent. Conclusion It is possible to predict a worker's probability of RTOW using machine learning techniques with moderate accuracy. PMID:29736160

Comparison between volatility return intervals of the S&P 500 index and two common models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vodenska-Chitkushev, I.; Wang, F. Z.; Weber, P.; Yamasaki, K.; Havlin, S.; Stanley, H. E.

2008-01-01

We analyze the S&P 500 index data for the 13-year period, from January 1, 1984 to December 31, 1996, with one data point every 10 min. For this database, we study the distribution and clustering of volatility return intervals, which are defined as the time intervals between successive volatilities above a certain threshold q. We find that the long memory in the volatility leads to a clustering of above-median as well as below-median return intervals. In addition, it turns out that the short return intervals form larger clusters compared to the long return intervals. When comparing the empirical results to the ARMA-FIGARCH and fBm models for volatility, we find that the fBm model predicts scaling better than the ARMA-FIGARCH model, which is consistent with the argument that both ARMA-FIGARCH and fBm capture the long-term dependence in return intervals to a certain extent, but only fBm accounts for the scaling. We perform the Student's t-test to compare the empirical data with the shuffled records, ARMA-FIGARCH and fBm. We analyze separately the clusters of above-median return intervals and the clusters of below-median return intervals for different thresholds q. We find that the empirical data are statistically different from the shuffled data for all thresholds q. Our results also suggest that the ARMA-FIGARCH model is statistically different from the S&P 500 for intermediate q for both above-median and below-median clusters, while fBm is statistically different from S&P 500 for small and large q for above-median clusters and for small q for below-median clusters. Neither model can fully explain the entire regime of q studied.

Multifactor analysis of multiscaling in volatility return intervals.

PubMed

Wang, Fengzhong; Yamasaki, Kazuko; Havlin, Shlomo; Stanley, H Eugene

2009-01-01

We study the volatility time series of 1137 most traded stocks in the U.S. stock markets for the two-year period 2001-2002 and analyze their return intervals tau , which are time intervals between volatilities above a given threshold q . We explore the probability density function of tau , P_(q)(tau) , assuming a stretched exponential function, P_(q)(tau) approximately e;(-tau;(gamma)) . We find that the exponent gamma depends on the threshold in the range between q=1 and 6 standard deviations of the volatility. This finding supports the multiscaling nature of the return interval distribution. To better understand the multiscaling origin, we study how gamma depends on four essential factors, capitalization, risk, number of trades, and return. We show that gamma depends on the capitalization, risk, and return but almost does not depend on the number of trades. This suggests that gamma relates to the portfolio selection but not on the market activity. To further characterize the multiscaling of individual stocks, we fit the moments of tau , mu_(m) identical with(tautau);(m);(1m) , in the range of 10

Multifactor analysis of multiscaling in volatility return intervals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Fengzhong; Yamasaki, Kazuko; Havlin, Shlomo; Stanley, H. Eugene

2009-01-01

We study the volatility time series of 1137 most traded stocks in the U.S. stock markets for the two-year period 2001-2002 and analyze their return intervals τ , which are time intervals between volatilities above a given threshold q . We explore the probability density function of τ , Pq(τ) , assuming a stretched exponential function, Pq(τ)˜e-τγ . We find that the exponent γ depends on the threshold in the range between q=1 and 6 standard deviations of the volatility. This finding supports the multiscaling nature of the return interval distribution. To better understand the multiscaling origin, we study how γ depends on four essential factors, capitalization, risk, number of trades, and return. We show that γ depends on the capitalization, risk, and return but almost does not depend on the number of trades. This suggests that γ relates to the portfolio selection but not on the market activity. To further characterize the multiscaling of individual stocks, we fit the moments of τ , μm≡⟨(τ/⟨τ⟩)m⟩1/m , in the range of 10<⟨τ⟩⩽100 by a power law, μm˜⟨τ⟩δ . The exponent δ is found also to depend on the capitalization, risk, and return but not on the number of trades, and its tendency is opposite to that of γ . Moreover, we show that δ decreases with increasing γ approximately by a linear relation. The return intervals demonstrate the temporal structure of volatilities and our findings suggest that their multiscaling features may be helpful for portfolio optimization.

Interannual Variability of Fisheries Economic Returns and Energy Ratios Is Mostly Explained by Gear Type

PubMed Central

Trenkel, Verena M.; Daurès, Fabienne; Rochet, Marie-Joëlle; Lorance, Pascal

2013-01-01

According to portfolio theory applied to fisheries management, economic returns are stabilised by harvesting in a portfolio stocks of species whose returns are negatively correlated and for which the portfolio economic return variance is smaller than the sum of stock specific return variances. Also, variability is expected to decrease with portfolio width. Using a range of indicators, these predictions were tested for the French fishing fleets in the Bay of Biscay (Northeast Atlantic) during the period 2001–2009. For this, vessels were grouped into eight fishing fleets based on the gears used and exploited species were grouped into five functional groups. The portfolio width of fleets ranged from 1–3 functional groups, or 4–19 species. Economic fleet returns (sale revenues minus fishing costs) varied strongly between years; the interannual variability was independent of portfolio width (species or functional groups). Energy ratio expressed by the ratio between fuel energy used for fishing and energy contained in landings varied from 0.3 for purse seines to 9.7 for trawlers using bottom trawls alone or in combination with pelagic trawls independent of portfolio width. Interannual variability in total sale revenues was larger than the sum of species specific sales revenue variability, except for fleets using hooks and pelagic trawlers; it increased with the number of species exploited. In conclusion, the interannual variability of economic returns or energy ratios of French fisheries in the Bay of Biscay did not decrease with the number of species or functional groups exploited, though it varied between fleets. PMID:23922951

Bone Density Following Three Years of Recovery from Long-Duration Space-Flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amin, S.; Achenbach, S. J.; Atkinson, E. J.; Sibonga, J.

2010-01-01

Bone loss during long-duration space flight is well recognized, but the long-term implications on bone health following return from flight remain unclear. Among US crew who were involved in long-duration missions in space (Mir and ISS), we have previously shown that at approximately 12 months following return, men, but not women, had BMD values at most sites that were still lower than would be expected had they not been exposed to a prolonged period of microgravity. We now extend our observations to 3 years of follow-up post-flight. Using their age, pre-flight BMD and follow-up time, post-flight BMD values for each US crew were predicted based on the model developed from the community sample. We found BMD measures to be either stable or improve by 3 years relative to their immediate post-flight BMD, however only total hip BMD still remains significantly lower than would be expected had they not been exposed to microgravity. Among male US crew, who have had their BMD measured following at least 3 years of recovery post long-duration flight, they continue to have lower BMD at the hip than would be expected, raising potential concerns regarding future hip fracture risk.

HMO behavior and stock market valuation: what does Wall Street reward and punish?

PubMed

Pauly, M V; Hillman, A L; Furukawa, M F; McCullough, J S

2001-01-01

This article analyzes the variation in returns to owning stock in investor-owned health maintenance organizations (IOHMOs) for the period 1994-1997. The average return (measured by the change in the market value of the stock plus dividends) was close to zero, but returns were positive and high for firms operating in local markets that were and remained less competitive, with large nationwide scope, and with less rapidly growing panels of contracted physicians. Indicators of a firm's strategic direction were abstracted from their annual reports; firms pursuing a merger or acquisition strategy, and those emphasizing a utilization review strategy, showed lower returns than those that did not. Other strategy and market variables were not related to stock market returns over this period, and were also generally not related to price-earnings ratios. This analysis supports the view that competitive HMO markets best constrain profits to investor-owned firms.

Assessing changes in failure probability of dams in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mallakpour, I.; AghaKouchak, A.; Moftakhari, H.; Ragno, E.

2017-12-01

Dams are crucial infrastructures and provide resilience against hydrometeorological extremes (e.g., droughts and floods). In 2017, California experienced series of flooding events terminating a 5-year drought, and leading to incidents such as structural failure of Oroville Dam's spillway. Because of large socioeconomic repercussions of such incidents, it is of paramount importance to evaluate dam failure risks associated with projected shifts in the streamflow regime. This becomes even more important as the current procedures for design of hydraulic structures (e.g., dams, bridges, spillways) are based on the so-called stationary assumption. Yet, changes in climate are anticipated to result in changes in statistics of river flow (e.g., more extreme floods) and possibly increasing the failure probability of already aging dams. Here, we examine changes in discharge under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. In this study, we used routed daily streamflow data from ten global climate models (GCMs) in order to investigate possible climate-induced changes in streamflow in northern California. Our results show that while the average flow does not show a significant change, extreme floods are projected to increase in the future. Using the extreme value theory, we estimate changes in the return periods of 50-year and 100-year floods in the current and future climates. Finally, we use the historical and future return periods to quantify changes in failure probability of dams in a warming climate.

An Application of a Stochastic Semi-Continuous Simulation Method for Flood Frequency Analysis: A Case Study in Slovakia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valent, Peter; Paquet, Emmanuel

2017-09-01

A reliable estimate of extreme flood characteristics has always been an active topic in hydrological research. Over the decades a large number of approaches and their modifications have been proposed and used, with various methods utilizing continuous simulation of catchment runoff, being the subject of the most intensive research in the last decade. In this paper a new and promising stochastic semi-continuous method is used to estimate extreme discharges in two mountainous Slovak catchments of the rivers Váh and Hron, in which snow-melt processes need to be taken into account. The SCHADEX method used, couples a precipitation probabilistic model with a rainfall-runoff model used to both continuously simulate catchment hydrological conditions and to transform generated synthetic rainfall events into corresponding discharges. The stochastic nature of the method means that a wide range of synthetic rainfall events were simulated on various historical catchment conditions, taking into account not only the saturation of soil, but also the amount of snow accumulated in the catchment. The results showed that the SCHADEX extreme discharge estimates with return periods of up to 100 years were comparable to those estimated by statistical approaches. In addition, two reconstructed historical floods with corresponding return periods of 100 and 1000 years were compared to the SCHADEX estimates. The results confirmed the usability of the method for estimating design discharges with a recurrence interval of more than 100 years and its applicability in Slovak conditions.

Returning to School After Adolescent Cancer: A Qualitative Examination of Australian Survivors' and Their Families' Perspectives.

PubMed

McLoone, Jordana K; Wakefield, Claire E; Butow, Phyllis; Fleming, Catharine; Cohn, Richard J

2011-06-01

To examine key factors related to adolescent cancer survivors' return to school after cancer treatment completion, which can be a time of complex transition. Seventy semi-structured interviews were conducted with 19 adolescent cancer survivors (mean age 16.1 years), 21 mothers, 15 fathers, and 15 siblings from 22 Australian families. The conceptual framework of Miles and Huberman (1994) was employed to analyze interview data and emergent themes were organized using the software package QSR NVivo 8.0. Barriers to successful school re-entry included symptoms of fatigue, anxiety (particularly regarding examinations), and poor communication between families and the broader school community. Changing grade or school typically extinguished pre-existing support networks and was perceived by parents as a period of unmet need. Support from friends, teachers, tutors, and the hospital outreach nurse were seen as instrumental in creating a positive school re-entry experience. However, the majority of participants reported that support from the school counselor was minimal. Siblings reported this period as relatively non-impactful regarding their own education. Additional support is needed to help parents navigate the education system and to advocate effectively for their child's academic needs beyond the immediate re-entry period. There is strong potential for school counselors to increase the level of support they provide adolescents and their parents during the school re-entry period. The impact of this period on siblings' education is under-studied and warrants further research.

Return to Work and Sport Following High Tibial Osteotomy: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Ekhtiari, Seper; Haldane, Chloe E; de Sa, Darren; Simunovic, Nicole; Musahl, Volker; Ayeni, Olufemi R

2016-09-21

The purpose of this study was to examine (1) timelines for return to sport and work following high tibial osteotomy (HTO), and (2) whether patients return to sport and work at levels similar to preoperative levels. A systematic search was conducted across 3 databases (MEDLINE, Embase, and PubMed). Two reviewers independently screened the results for relevant articles. Data regarding patient demographics, indications, surgical technique, return to work and sport, and complication and failure rates were abstracted from eligible studies. Nineteen studies were included, involving 1,189 patients (64% male, 21% female, 15% unspecified) and 1,224 knees. Mean age was 46.2 years (range, 16 to 80 years). Opening-wedge HTO was most commonly used, followed by closing-wedge HTO and hemicallotasis. Mean follow-up was 65.4 months (range, 8 to 253 months). Overall, 87.2% of patients returned to sport postoperatively, and 78.6% returned at an equal or greater level. Among competitive athletes, 54% returned to competition. Overall, 84.5% of patients returned to work postoperatively, and 65.5% returned at an equal or greater level. Approximately 90% of patients who returned to work or sport did so within 1 year. The complication rate was 5.8%, with infection being the most common complication; 7.0% of patients progressed to a total knee arthroplasty at a mean of 6.7 years (range, 0.8 to 15 years) following HTO. The majority of patients undergoing HTO return to sport and work, and most return within 1 year of the operation. Most patients return to sport at a level equal to or greater than the preoperative level. Approximately two-thirds of patients return to an equal or greater level of physical work. Therapeutic Level IV. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence. Copyright © 2016 by The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery, Incorporated.

Hurricane modification and adaptation in Miami-Dade County, Florida.

PubMed

Klima, Kelly; Lin, Ning; Emanuel, Kerry; Morgan, M Granger; Grossmann, Iris

2012-01-17

We investigate tropical cyclone wind and storm surge damage reduction for five areas along the Miami-Dade County coastline either by hardening buildings or by the hypothetical application of wind-wave pumps to modify storms. We calculate surge height and wind speed as functions of return period and sea surface temperature reduction by wind-wave pumps. We then estimate costs and economic losses with the FEMA HAZUS-MH MR3 damage model and census data on property at risk. All areas experience more surge damages for short return periods, and more wind damages for long periods. The return period at which the dominating hazard component switches depends on location. We also calculate the seasonal expected fraction of control damage for different scenarios to reduce damages. Surge damages are best reduced through a surge barrier. Wind damages are best reduced by a portfolio of techniques that, assuming they work and are correctly deployed, include wind-wave pumps.

Estimating the returns to United Kingdom publicly funded musculoskeletal disease research in terms of net value of improved health outcomes.

PubMed

Glover, Matthew; Montague, Erin; Pollitt, Alexandra; Guthrie, Susan; Hanney, Stephen; Buxton, Martin; Grant, Jonathan

2018-01-10

Building on an approach applied to cardiovascular and cancer research, we estimated the economic returns from United Kingdom public- and charitable-funded musculoskeletal disease (MSD) research that arise from the net value of the improved health outcomes in the United Kingdom. To calculate the economic returns from MSD-related research in the United Kingdom, we estimated (1) the public and charitable expenditure on MSD-related research in the United Kingdom between 1970 and 2013; (2) the net monetary benefit (NMB), derived from the health benefit in quality adjusted life years (QALYs) valued in monetary terms (using a base-case value of a QALY of £25,000) minus the cost of delivering that benefit, for a prioritised list of interventions from 1994 to 2013; (3) the proportion of NMB attributable to United Kingdom research; and (4) the elapsed time between research funding and health gain. The data collected from these four key elements were used to estimate the internal rate of return (IRR) from MSD-related research investments on health benefits. We analysed the uncertainties in the IRR estimate using a one-way sensitivity analysis. Expressed in 2013 prices, total expenditure on MSD-related research from 1970 to 2013 was £3.5 billion, and for the period used to estimate the rate of return, 1978-1997, was £1.4 billion. Over the period 1994-2013 the key interventions analysed produced 871,000 QALYs with a NMB of £16 billion, allowing for the net NHS costs resulting from them and valuing a QALY at £25,000. The proportion of benefit attributable to United Kingdom research was 30% and the elapsed time between funding and impact of MSD treatments was 16 years. Our best estimate of the IRR from MSD-related research was 7%, which is similar to the 9% for CVD and 10% for cancer research. Our estimate of the IRR from the net health gain to public and charitable funding of MSD-related research in the United Kingdom is substantial, and justifies the research investments made between 1978 and 1997. We also demonstrated the applicability of the approach previously used in assessing the returns from cardiovascular and cancer research. Inevitably, with a study of this kind, there are a number of important assumptions and caveats that we highlight, and these can inform future research.

The experience of women with an eating disorder in the perinatal period: a meta-ethnographic study.

PubMed

Fogarty, Sarah; Elmir, Rakime; Hay, Phillipa; Schmied, Virginia

2018-05-02

Pregnancy is a time of enormous body transformation. For those with an eating disorder during pregnancy this time of transformation can be distressing and damaging to both the mother and the child. In this meta-ethnographic study, we aimed to examine the experiences of women with an Eating Disorder in the perinatal period; that is during pregnancy and two years following birth. A meta-ethnographic framework was used in this review. After a systematic online search of the literature using the keywords such as pregnancy, eating disorders, anorexia, bulimia, binge eating disorder, perinatal, postnatal and post-partum, 11 papers, involving 94 women, were included in the review. A qualitative synthesis of the papers identified 2 key themes. The key theme that emerged during pregnancy was: navigating a 'new' eating disorder. The key that emerged in the perinatal period was return to the 'old' eating disorder. Following a tumultuous pregnancy experience, many described returning to their pre-pregnancy eating behaviors and thoughts. These experiences highlight the emotional difficulty experienced having an eating disorder whilst pregnant but they also point to opportunities for intervention and a continued acceptance of body image changes. More research is needed on the experiences of targeted treatment interventions specific for pregnant and postpartum women with an eating disorder and the effectiveness of putative treatment interventions during this period.

Military milk: breastfeeding rates among Australian Defence Force women who return to military service following maternity leave.

PubMed

Stewart, Kelley

2015-02-01

The breastfeeding behaviors among Australian Defence Force women have not previously been examined. Studies have shown that breastfeeding prevalence and duration are affected by maternity leave entitlements and returning to work. This study aimed to benchmark breastfeeding initiation, prevalence, and duration among a cohort of Australian Defence Force women and to compare these findings against Australian population norms. A cross-sectional survey was conducted via email in 2008 for Australian Defence Force women who had taken maternity leave in the Australian financial year of 2006/2007. Analysis of breastfeeding indicators was undertaken. Ninety-eight percent of Australian Defence Force women in this cohort initiated breastfeeding and breastfed for a median duration of 8 months, returning to work when the mean age of the child was 8.4 months. Breastfeeding prevalence did not meet 2003 Australian National Health and Medical Research Council targets by 6 months postpartum but compared favorably to the Australian population norms. Sixty-six percent of the respondents returned to work full-time, with a median breastfeeding duration of 7 months. Women who returned to work part-time had a longer median duration of 10 months. Breastfeeding rates among this cohort of Australian Defence Force women compare favorably with the general Australian population until 9 months, coinciding with returning to work after a period of maternity leave. The results support recent Australian population studies on breastfeeding and employment. © The Author(s) 2014.

26 CFR 1.6151-1 - Time and place for paying tax shown on returns.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... the internal revenue officer with whom the return is filed at the time fixed for filing the return... later than the date fixed for filing the return. (c) Date fixed for payment of tax. In any case in which... within a certain period, any reference in subtitle A or F of the Code to the date fixed for payment of...

Stylized facts of intraday precious metals

PubMed Central

Batten, Jonathan; McGroarty, Frank; Peat, Maurice; Urquhart, Andrew

2017-01-01

This paper examines the stylized facts, correlation and interaction between volatility and returns at the 5-minute frequency for gold, silver, platinum and palladium from May 2000 to April 2015. We study the full sample period, as well as three subsamples to determine how high-frequency data of precious metals have developed over time. We find that over the full sample, the number of trades has increased substantially over time for each precious metal, while the bid-ask spread has narrowed over time, indicating an increase in liquidity and price efficiency. We also find strong evidence of periodicity in returns, volatility, volume and bid-ask spread. Returns and volume both experience strong intraday periodicity linked to the opening and closing of major markets around the world while the bid-ask spread is at its lowest when European markets are open. We also show a bilateral Granger causality between returns and volatility of each precious metal, which holds for the vast majority subsamples. PMID:28448492

Stylized facts of intraday precious metals.

PubMed

Batten, Jonathan; Lucey, Brian; McGroarty, Frank; Peat, Maurice; Urquhart, Andrew

2017-01-01

This paper examines the stylized facts, correlation and interaction between volatility and returns at the 5-minute frequency for gold, silver, platinum and palladium from May 2000 to April 2015. We study the full sample period, as well as three subsamples to determine how high-frequency data of precious metals have developed over time. We find that over the full sample, the number of trades has increased substantially over time for each precious metal, while the bid-ask spread has narrowed over time, indicating an increase in liquidity and price efficiency. We also find strong evidence of periodicity in returns, volatility, volume and bid-ask spread. Returns and volume both experience strong intraday periodicity linked to the opening and closing of major markets around the world while the bid-ask spread is at its lowest when European markets are open. We also show a bilateral Granger causality between returns and volatility of each precious metal, which holds for the vast majority subsamples.

Metocean design parameter estimation for fixed platform based on copula functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhai, Jinjin; Yin, Qilin; Dong, Sheng

2017-08-01

Considering the dependent relationship among wave height, wind speed, and current velocity, we construct novel trivariate joint probability distributions via Archimedean copula functions. Total 30-year data of wave height, wind speed, and current velocity in the Bohai Sea are hindcast and sampled for case study. Four kinds of distributions, namely, Gumbel distribution, lognormal distribution, Weibull distribution, and Pearson Type III distribution, are candidate models for marginal distributions of wave height, wind speed, and current velocity. The Pearson Type III distribution is selected as the optimal model. Bivariate and trivariate probability distributions of these environmental conditions are established based on four bivariate and trivariate Archimedean copulas, namely, Clayton, Frank, Gumbel-Hougaard, and Ali-Mikhail-Haq copulas. These joint probability models can maximize marginal information and the dependence among the three variables. The design return values of these three variables can be obtained by three methods: univariate probability, conditional probability, and joint probability. The joint return periods of different load combinations are estimated by the proposed models. Platform responses (including base shear, overturning moment, and deck displacement) are further calculated. For the same return period, the design values of wave height, wind speed, and current velocity obtained by the conditional and joint probability models are much smaller than those by univariate probability. Considering the dependence among variables, the multivariate probability distributions provide close design parameters to actual sea state for ocean platform design.

Dengue, chikungunya, and Zika virus infections imported to Paris between 2009 and 2016: Characteristics and correlation with outbreaks in the French overseas territories of Guadeloupe and Martinique.

PubMed

Vasquez, Victor; Haddad, Elie; Perignon, Alice; Jaureguiberry, Stéphane; Brichler, Ségolène; Leparc-Goffart, Isabelle; Caumes, Eric

2018-07-01

Dengue virus (DENV), chikungunya virus (CHIKV), and Zika virus (ZIKV) infections are rapidly expanding across countries and are being diagnosed in returned travellers who represent epidemiological sentinels. The French Territories of America (FTA) such as Guadeloupe and Martinique see high levels of tourism and have experienced three consecutive outbreaks by these viruses in the last decade. This study was performed to evaluate how ill returned travellers could have represented epidemiological sentinels for these three expanding arboviral diseases over eight consecutive years. The degree of correlation between the cases of ill returned travellers arriving at a French tertiary hospital in Paris and the three outbreaks that occurred in the FTA during the study period was estimated. All consecutive ill returned travellers diagnosed at the hospital in Paris with imported DENV, CHIKV, or ZIKV infections from January 2009 to December 2016 were included. Epidemiological and clinical variables were evaluated. Data concerning the incidence of arboviruses in the FTA, as well as the temporal relationship between the occurrence of imported cases and outbreaks in the FTA, were analyzed. Overall, 320 cases of arboviral infection were reported: 216 DENV, 68 CHIKV, and 36 ZIKV. Most of the patients presented with fever and exanthema. One hundred and fifteen patients were exposed in Guadeloupe or Martinique, which were the at-risk destinations in 25% of patients with DENV, 59% of patients with CHIKV, and 58% of patients with ZIKV. The occurrence of cases diagnosed in returning travellers followed the same time pattern as the outbreaks in these areas. A temporal correlation was found between newly diagnosed imported cases of arboviruses and the three corresponding outbreaks that occurred in Martinique and Guadeloupe during 8 consecutive years. Thus, ill returned travellers act as epidemiological sentinels from the beginning up to the end of outbreaks occurring in touristic locations. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The effect of diagnosis-specific computerized discharge instructions on 72-hour return visits to the pediatric emergency department.

PubMed

Lawrence, Laurie M; Jenkins, Cathy A; Zhou, Chuan; Givens, Timothy G

2009-11-01

The number of patients returning to the pediatric emergency department (PED) within 72 hours of discharge is frequently cited as a benchmark for quality patient care. The purpose of this study was to determine whether the introduction of diagnosis-specific computer-generated discharge instructions would decrease the number of medically unnecessary return visits to the PED. A retrospective chart review of patients who returned to the PED within 72 hours of discharge was performed. Charts were reviewed from 2 comparable periods: September 2004 to February 2005, when handwritten discharge instructions were issued to each patient, and September 2005 to February 2006, when each patient received computer-generated diagnosis-specific discharge instructions. The patient's age, primary care provider, insurance status, chief complaint, vital signs, history, physical examination, plan of care, and diagnosis at each visit were recorded. Cases were excluded if the patient left against medical advice or without being seen, was admitted to the hospital on the first visit, or had incomplete or missing records. The medical necessity of the return visit was rated as "yes," "no," or "indeterminate" based on review of the visit noting reason for return, history and physical examination, diagnosis, and interventions or changes in the initial care plan. Of all return visits to the PED within 72 hours of discharge, 13% were deemed unnecessary for patients receiving handwritten instructions compared with 15% for patients receiving computer-generated instructions (P = 0.5, not significant). For each additional year of age, the return visit was 1.07 times as likely to be medically appropriate (95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.12; P = 0.002). Patients who returned to the PED more than once were 2.69 times more likely to have a medically appropriate visit as were those with only 1 return visit (95% confidence interval, 0.95-7.58; P = 0.062). Computer-generated diagnosis-specific discharge instructions do not decrease the number of medically unnecessary repeat visits to the PED.

Outcome of conservative treatment for Little League shoulder in young baseball players: factors related to incomplete return to baseball and recurrence of pain.

PubMed

Harada, Mikio; Takahara, Masatoshi; Maruyama, Masahiro; Kondo, Mikiro; Uno, Tomohiro; Takagi, Michiaki; Mura, Nariyuki

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the factors associated with poor results and pain recurrence in young baseball players with Little League shoulder (LLS). Eighty-seven young baseball players with LLS (mean age, 12.1 years) underwent conservative treatment. Of the players, 68 (78%) underwent conservative treatment involving the prohibition of throwing for an average of 1.2 months whereas the remaining 19 (22%) continued throwing with limitations. We analyzed the factors associated with poor results at 2 months and pain recurrence. At 2 months, 18% of participants reported the presence of pain, and the results regarding the return to baseball were as follows: complete return in 43%, incomplete return in 33%, and no return in 24%. A total of 83 subjects (95%) had completely returned at an average of 2.8 months. Pain recurrence was present in 20 subjects (25%) at an average of 6.2 months. Statistical analysis showed that the following factors were significantly associated with poor results at 2 months: longer period from initial presentation to throwing prohibition and worse shoulder flexibility (P = .04 and P = .01, respectively). It also revealed that the following factors were significantly associated with pain recurrence: higher frequency of pain at 2 months and longer duration until complete return (P = .0003 and P = .04, respectively). It is important for subjects with LLS to be prohibited from throwing immediately after initial presentation. Good shoulder flexibility was associated with a return to baseball without pain. A complete return in subjects who had pain at 2 months was significantly delayed, and these subjects exhibited more rapidly recurring pain after their return. Copyright © 2017 Journal of Shoulder and Elbow Surgery Board of Trustees. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

East Europe Report.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-02-13

Dan Berindei, although dealing with a vast range of themes, are designed to and fully succeed in demonstrating the important role of the Romanian ...undertaken by Dan Berindei cover a period of 150 years, since the last decades of the 18th century and up to 1918 , when the Romanian national...Wallachia, and until 1918 , when the national unity was completed and the 81 national united Romanian state was created, the idea of Transylvania’s return

Studying beyond Age 25: Who Does It and What Do They Gain? Research Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coelli, Michael; Tabasso, Domenico; Zakirova, Rezida

2012-01-01

Why should a person keep studying beyond his/her mid-20s? After all, education and training at a younger age provide for the longest period over which the return on the investment can be harvested. On the other hand, individuals in their 40s (or even 50s) can expect to work for another 20 years or so, allowing plenty of time to recoup the cost of…

Erosion on very stony forest soil during phenomenal rain in Webster County, West Virginia

Treesearch

J. H. Patric; W. E., Jr. Kidd

1982-01-01

On July 15 and 16, 1979, at least 6 inches of rain fell in central West Virginia during 3 hours, a storm of return period longer than 1,000 years. More than 6 miles of logging roads were examined for evidences of soil erosion and sediment delivery to streams. Erosion was negligible on very stony soils where (a) logging roads were litter covered, (b) road grades were...

Broad Plasma Decreases in the Equatorial Ionosphere

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-08-06

REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-01-0188 The public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to...currently valid OMB control number PLEASE DO NOT RETURN YOUR FORM TO THE ABOVE ADDRESS. 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 06-08-2009 2. REPORT TYPE REPRINT...June solstices; during (2) solar minimum years); (3) in the vicinity of the SAA. Neutral densities were examined during periods when BPDs were

Secondary school accident reporting in one education authority.

PubMed

Williams, W R; Latif, A H A; Sibert, J

2002-01-01

Secondary schools appear to have very different accident rates when they are compared on the basis of accident report returns. The variation may be as a result of real differences in accident rates or different reporting procedures. This study investigates accident reporting from secondary schools and, in particular, the role of the school nurse. Accident form returns covering a 2-year period were collected for statistical analysis from 13 comprehensive schools in one local education authority in Wales. School sites were visited in the following school year to obtain information about accident records held on site and accident reporting procedures. The main factors determining the number of school accident reports submitted to the education authority relate to differences in recording and reporting procedures, such as the employment of a nurse and the policy of the head teacher/safety officer on submitting accident returns. Accident and emergency department referrals from similar schools may show significant differences in specific injuries and their causes. The level of school accident activity cannot be gauged from reports submitted to the education authority. Lack of incentives for collecting good accident data, in conjunction with the degree of complacency in the current system, suggest that future accident rates and reporting activity are unlikely to change.

Preoperative computed tomography angiography for planning DIEP flap breast reconstruction reduces operative time and overall complications

PubMed Central

Rozen, Warren Matthew; Chowdhry, Muhammad; Band, Bassam; Ramakrishnan, Venkat V.; Griffiths, Matthew

2016-01-01

Background The approach and operative techniques associated with breast reconstruction have steadily been refined since its inception, with abdominal perforator-based flaps becoming the gold standard reconstructive option for women undergoing breast cancer surgery. The current study comprises a cohort of 632 patients, in whom specific operative times are recorded by a blinded observer, and aims to address the potential benefits seen with the use of computer tomography (CT) scanning preoperatively on operative outcomes, complications and surgical times. Methods A prospectively recorded, retrospective review was undertaken of patients undergoing autologous breast reconstruction with a DIEP flap at the St Andrews Centre over a 4-year period from 2010 to 2014. Computed tomography angiography (CTA) scanning of patients began in September 2012 and thus 2 time periods were compared: 2 years prior to the use of CTA scans and 2 years afterwards. For all patients, key variables were collected including patient demographics, operative times, flap harvest time, pedicle length, surgeon experience and complications. Results In group 1, comprising patients within the period prior to CTA scans, 265 patients underwent 312 flaps; whilst in group 2, the immediately following 2 years, 275 patients had 320 flaps. The use of preoperative CTA scans demonstrated a significant reduction in flap harvest time of 13 minutes (P<0.013). This significant time saving was seen in all flap modifications: unilateral, bilateral and bipedicled DIEP flaps. The greatest time saving was seen in bipedicle flaps, with a 35-minute time saving. The return to theatre rate significantly dropped from 11.2% to 6.9% following the use of CTA scans, but there was no difference in the total failure rate. Conclusions The study has demonstrated both a benefit to flap harvest time as well as overall operative times when using preoperative CTA. The use of CTA was associated with a significant reduction in complications requiring a return to theatre in the immediate postoperative period. Modern scanners and techniques can reduce the level of ionising radiation, facilitating patients being able to benefit from the advantages that this preoperative planning can convey. PMID:27047777

Maintaining Investment Success: The Importance of Asset Suballocation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morrell, Louis R.

1997-01-01

To meet demand for increased funding, in a period of probable declining investment returns, colleges and universities must fine-tune their asset suballocations to enhance returns. While the institution should adhere to major asset allocation classes, there can be much flexibility, and enhanced return, in shifting suballocations within the major…

The Significance of the Record Length in Flood Frequency Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senarath, S. U.

2013-12-01

Of all of the potential natural hazards, flood is the most costly in many regions of the world. For example, floods cause over a third of Europe's average annual catastrophe losses and affect about two thirds of the people impacted by natural catastrophes. Increased attention is being paid to determining flow estimates associated with pre-specified return periods so that flood-prone areas can be adequately protected against floods of particular magnitudes or return periods. Flood frequency analysis, which is conducted by using an appropriate probability density function that fits the observed annual maximum flow data, is frequently used for obtaining these flow estimates. Consequently, flood frequency analysis plays an integral role in determining the flood risk in flood prone watersheds. A long annual maximum flow record is vital for obtaining accurate estimates of discharges associated with high return period flows. However, in many areas of the world, flood frequency analysis is conducted with limited flow data or short annual maximum flow records. These inevitably lead to flow estimates that are subject to error. This is especially the case with high return period flow estimates. In this study, several statistical techniques are used to identify errors caused by short annual maximum flow records. The flow estimates used in the error analysis are obtained by fitting a log-Pearson III distribution to the flood time-series. These errors can then be used to better evaluate the return period flows in data limited streams. The study findings, therefore, have important implications for hydrologists, water resources engineers and floodplain managers.

Profitability of Contrarian Strategies in the Chinese Stock Market

PubMed Central

Shi, Huai-Long; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Zhou, Wei-Xing

2015-01-01

This paper reexamines the profitability of loser, winner and contrarian portfolios in the Chinese stock market using monthly data of all stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange covering the period from January 1997 to December 2012. We find evidence of short-term and long-term contrarian profitability in the whole sample period when the estimation and holding horizons are 1 month or longer than 12 months and the annualized return of contrarian portfolios increases with the estimation and holding horizons. We perform subperiod analysis and find that the long-term contrarian effect is significant in both bullish and bearish states, while the short-term contrarian effect disappears in bullish states. We compare the performance of contrarian portfolios based on different grouping manners in the estimation period and unveil that decile grouping outperforms quintile grouping and tertile grouping, which is more evident and robust in the long run. Generally, loser portfolios and winner portfolios have positive returns and loser portfolios perform much better than winner portfolios. Both loser and winner portfolios in bullish states perform better than those in the whole sample period. In contrast, loser and winner portfolios have smaller returns in bearish states, in which loser portfolio returns are significant only in the long term and winner portfolio returns become insignificant. These results are robust to the one-month skipping between the estimation and holding periods and for the two stock exchanges. Our findings show that the Chinese stock market is not efficient in the weak form. These findings also have obvious practical implications for financial practitioners. PMID:26368537

Profitability of Contrarian Strategies in the Chinese Stock Market.

PubMed

Shi, Huai-Long; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Zhou, Wei-Xing

2015-01-01

This paper reexamines the profitability of loser, winner and contrarian portfolios in the Chinese stock market using monthly data of all stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange covering the period from January 1997 to December 2012. We find evidence of short-term and long-term contrarian profitability in the whole sample period when the estimation and holding horizons are 1 month or longer than 12 months and the annualized return of contrarian portfolios increases with the estimation and holding horizons. We perform subperiod analysis and find that the long-term contrarian effect is significant in both bullish and bearish states, while the short-term contrarian effect disappears in bullish states. We compare the performance of contrarian portfolios based on different grouping manners in the estimation period and unveil that decile grouping outperforms quintile grouping and tertile grouping, which is more evident and robust in the long run. Generally, loser portfolios and winner portfolios have positive returns and loser portfolios perform much better than winner portfolios. Both loser and winner portfolios in bullish states perform better than those in the whole sample period. In contrast, loser and winner portfolios have smaller returns in bearish states, in which loser portfolio returns are significant only in the long term and winner portfolio returns become insignificant. These results are robust to the one-month skipping between the estimation and holding periods and for the two stock exchanges. Our findings show that the Chinese stock market is not efficient in the weak form. These findings also have obvious practical implications for financial practitioners.

26 CFR 301.6501(c)-1 - Exceptions to general period of limitations on assessment and collection.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... assessment and collection. 301.6501(c)-1 Section 301.6501(c)-1 Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE... Limitations on Assessment and Collection § 301.6501(c)-1 Exceptions to general period of limitations on assessment and collection. (a) False return. In the case of a false or fraudulent return with intent to evade...

26 CFR 301.6501(c)-1 - Exceptions to general period of limitations on assessment and collection.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... assessment and collection. 301.6501(c)-1 Section 301.6501(c)-1 Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE... Limitations on Assessment and Collection § 301.6501(c)-1 Exceptions to general period of limitations on assessment and collection. (a) False return. In the case of a false or fraudulent return with intent to evade...

26 CFR 301.6501(c)-1 - Exceptions to general period of limitations on assessment and collection.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... assessment and collection. 301.6501(c)-1 Section 301.6501(c)-1 Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE... Limitations on Assessment and Collection § 301.6501(c)-1 Exceptions to general period of limitations on assessment and collection. (a) False return. In the case of a false or fraudulent return with intent to evade...

Analysis of the stormwater drainage of the historic walls of Cartagena de Indias between the bastions of San Lucas, Santa Catalina and Santa Clara

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Utria, A.; Saba, M.; Quiñones-Bolaños, E.

2017-12-01

The city walls of Cartagena between the Baluarte of San Lucas and Santa Clara reflects the consequences of poor stormwater drainage. In the present investigation the current drainage state of this area have been evaluated, assessing its sizing and conditions to be then modelled through SWMM 5 software for return periods of 5, 10, 15 and 20 years respectively. Finally, it has been determined that the physical deterioration of the drainage elements justifies the malfunction of the whole system, therefore cleaning and periodic maintenance of the drainage elements is strongly suggested.

An assessment of temporal effect on extreme rainfall estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, Samiran; Zhu, Dehua; Chi-Han, Cheng

2018-06-01

This study assesses the temporal behaviour in terms of inter-decadal variability of extreme daily rainfall of stated return period relevant for hydrologic risk analysis using a novel regional parametric approach. The assessment is carried out based on annual maximum daily rainfall series of 180 meteorological stations of Yangtze River Basin over a 50-year period (1961-2010). The outcomes of the analysis reveal that while there were effects present indicating higher quantile values when estimated from data of the 1990s, it is found not to be noteworthy to exclude the data of any decade from the extreme rainfall estimation process for hydrologic risk analysis.

New Perspectives on Ancient Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Solomon, Sean C.; Aharonson, O.; Aurnou, J. M.; Banerdt, W. B.; Carr, M. H.; Dombard, A. J.; Frey, H. V.; Golombek, M. P.; Hauck, S. A., II; Head, J. W., III

2004-01-01

Global data sets returned by the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS), Mars Odyssey, and Mars Express spacecraft and recent analyses of Martian meteorites suggest that most of the major geological events of Martian history occurred within the first billion years of solar system formation. This period was a time of heavy impact bombardment of the inner solar system, a process that strongly overprinted much of the Martian geological record from that time. Geophysical signatures nonetheless remain from that period in the Martian crust, and several geochemical tracers of early events are found in Martian meteorites. Collectively, these observations provide insight into the earliest era in Martian history when the conditions favoring life were best satisfied.

Estimation of the return period of rockfall blocks according to their size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Biagi, Valerio; Lia Napoli, Maria; Barbero, Monica; Peila, Daniele

2017-01-01

With reference to the rockfall risk estimation and the planning of rockfall protection devices, one of the most critical and most discussed problems is the correct definition of the design block by taking into account its return period. In this paper, a methodology for the assessment of the design block linked with its return time is proposed and discussed, following a statistical approach. The procedure is based on the survey of the blocks that were already detached from the slope and had accumulated at the foot of the slope in addition to the available historical data.

Is stock market volatility asymmetric? A multi-period analysis for five countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bentes, Sonia R.

2018-06-01

This study examines the asymmetry in the volatility of the returns of five indices, namely, PSI 20 (Portugal), ISEQ 20 (Ireland), MIB 30 (Italy), ATHEX 30 (Greece) and IBEX 35 (Spain) using daily data from 2004-2016. For this purpose, we estimate the GJR and EGARCH asymmetric models for the whole sample and then split it into three subperiods of approximately four years each to examine how the coefficient on asymmetry behaves over time. Our results for the full sample show that all indices exhibit different levels of asymmetry. When we consider the subsample analysis however results show that while there is mixed evidence from the first to the second subperiods, all returns evidence an increase in asymmetry from the second to the last subperiod.

Effects of increased urbanization from 1970's to 1990's on storm-runoff characteristics in Perris Valley, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guay, J.R.

1996-01-01

Urban areas in Perris Valley, California, have more than tripled during the last 20 years. To quantify the effects of increased urbanization on storm runoff volumes and peak discharges, rainfall-runoff models of the basin were developed to simulate runoff for 1970-75 and 1990-93 conditions. Hourly rainfall data for 1949-93 were used with the rainfall-runoff models to simulate a long-term record of storm runoff. The hydrologic effects of increased urbanization from 1970-75 to 1990-93 were analyzed by comparing the simulated annual peak discharges and volumes, and storm runoff peaks, frequency of annual peak discharges and runoff volumes, and duration of storm peak discharges for each study period. A Log-Pearson Type-III frequency analysis was calculated using the simulated annual peaks to estimate the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year recurrence intervals. The estimated 2-year discharge at the outlet of the basin was 646 cubic feet per second for the 1970-75 conditions and 1,328 cubic feet per second for the 1990-93 conditions. The 100-year discharge at the outlet of the basin was about 14,000 cubic feet per second for the 1970-75 and 1990-93 conditions. The station duration analysis used 925 model-simulated storm peaks from each basin to estimate the percent chance a peak discharge is exceeded. At the outlet of the basin, the chances of exceeding 100 cubic feet per second were about 33 percent under 1970-75 conditions and about 59 percent under 1990-93 conditions. The chance of exceeding 2,500 cubic feet per second at the outlet of the basin was less than 1 percent higher under the 1990-93 conditions than under the 1970-75 conditions. The increase in urbanization from the early 1970's to the early 1990's more than doubled the peak discharges with a 2-year return period. However, peak discharges with return periods greater than 50 years were not significantly affected by the change in urbanization.

How to introduce climate change into extreme precipitation predetermination? First attempts to tamper with the MEWP method.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gérardin, Maxime; Brigode, Pierre; Bernardara, Pietro; Gailhard, Joël; Garçon, Rémy; Paquet, Emmanuel; Ribstein, Pierre

2013-04-01

The MEWP (Multi-Exponential Weather Pattern, Garavaglia et al. 2010) distribution is part of the operational method in use at EDF (Electricité de France) for computing dam spillways design floods, i.e. the magnitude of the flood that occurs at a given return period. The return periods of interest lie in the 100 - 10,000 years range. Relying on a purposely-designed classification of atmospheric circulations into weather patterns, and assigning a catchment-specific asymptotical coefficient to each of these patterns, the MEWP distribution provides the daily areal rainfall as a function of the return period. In its current state, the method relies on the implicit assumption of climate stationnarity. In this work we seek to introduce climate change into the MEWP framework. Since the MEWP distribution basically contains two sorts of parameters, namely frequencies of the weather patterns, and magnitudes of the events occurring within each of these patterns, we examine the plausible evolution of these two sets of parameters under climate change, and the sensitivity of the final result to these two sorts of changes. On the one hand, the future frequencies are assessed thanks to GCM outputs from CMIP5, and significant, albeit not greater than the internal variability, changes are observed. On the other hand, the future magnitudes can be suspected to follow the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship (e.g. Pall et al., 2007, and Lenderink et van Meijgaard, 2008). We assess the validity of this hypothesis on the observed daily areal precipitation series for more than a hundred catchments in France. The sensitivity analysis shows that, for the return periods at stake, the impact of frequency changes is small relative to that of magnitude changes, while this would not be true for smaller return periods. Therefore, we propose to incorporate climate change into the MEWP distribution in a simple but realistic way, by taking account of the magnitude change only. We conclude with some insights into the next steps that will allow a more sophisticated representation of climate change in the MEWP distribution. References: Garavaglia, F., J. Gailhard, E. Paquet, M. Lang, R. Garçon, and P. Bernardara. 2010. "Introducing a Rainfall Compound Distribution Model Based on Weather Patterns Sub-sampling." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 14 (6): 951-964. doi:10.5194/hess-14-951-2010. Lenderink, Geert, and Erik van Meijgaard. 2008. "Increase in Hourly Precipitation Extremes Beyond Expectations from Temperature Changes." Nature Geoscience 1 (8) (July 20): 511-514. doi:10.1038/ngeo262. Pall, P., MR Allen, and DA Stone. 2007. "Testing the Clausius-Clapeyron Constraint on Changes in Extreme Precipitation Under CO 2 Warming." Climate Dynamics 28 (4): 351-363.

Hip Arthroscopy in High-Level Baseball Players.

PubMed

Byrd, J W Thomas; Jones, Kay S

2015-08-01

To report the results of hip arthroscopy among high-level baseball players as recorded by outcome scores and return to baseball. All patients undergoing hip arthroscopy were prospectively assessed with the modified Harris Hip Score. On review of all procedures performed over a 12-year period, 44 hips were identified among 41 intercollegiate or professional baseball players who had achieved 2-year follow-up. Among the 41 players, follow-up averaged 45 months (range, 24 to 120 months), with a mean age of 23 years (range, 18 to 34 years). There were 23 collegiate (1 bilateral) and 18 professional (2 bilateral) baseball players, including 10 Major League Baseball players. Of the 8 Major League Baseball pitchers, 6 (75%) also underwent ulnar collateral ligament elbow surgery. Improvement in the modified Harris Hip Score averaged 13 points (from 81 points preoperatively to 94 points postoperatively); a paired-samples t test determined that this mean improvement of 13 points was statistically significant (P < .001). Players returned to baseball after 42 of 44 procedures (95%) at a mean of 4.3 months (range, 3 to 8 months), with 90% regaining the ability to participate at their previous level of competition. There were no complications. Three players (1 bilateral) underwent repeat arthroscopy. This study supports the idea that arthroscopic treatment for a variety of hip pathologies in high-level baseball players provides a successful return to sport and improvement in functional outcome scores. Level IV, therapeutic case series. Copyright © 2015 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A five-phase process model describing the return to sustainable work of persons who survived cancer: A qualitative study.

PubMed

Brusletto, Birgit; Torp, Steffen; Ihlebæk, Camilla Martha; Vinje, Hege Forbech

2018-06-01

We investigated persons who survived cancer (PSC) and their experiences in returning to sustainable work. Videotaped, qualitative, in-depth interviews with previous cancer patients were analyzed directly using "Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis" (IPA). Four men and four women aged 42-59 years participated. Mean time since last treatment was nine years. All participants had worked for more than 3 years when interviewed. An advisory team of seven members with diverse cancer experiences contributed as co-researchers. The entire trajectory from cancer diagnosis until achievement of sustainable work was analog to a journey, and a process model comprising five phases was developed, including personal situations, treatments, and work issues. The theme "return-to-work" (RTW) turned out to be difficult to separate from the entire journey that started at the time of diagnosis. PSCs were mainly concerned about fighting for life in phases 1 and 2. In phase 3 and 4, some participants had to adjust and make changes at work more than once over a period of 1-10 years before reaching sustainable work in phase 5. Overall, the ability to adapt to new circumstances, take advantage of emerging opportunities, and finding meaningful occupational activities were crucial. Our process model may be useful as a tool when discussing the future working life of PSCs. Every individual's journey towards sustainable work was unique, and contained distinct and long-lasting efforts and difficulties. The first attempt to RTW after cancer may not be persistent. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of Academic Grade Level on Return to Athletic Competition After Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction.

PubMed

Bauer, Matthew; Feeley, Brian T; Gallo, Robert A

2016-11-07

After anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction, 63% to 87% of high school athletes return to competition. Although physical and psychological factors are known contributors for failure to return to play, little attention has been paid to effect of academic grade level. Our purpose was to determine the influence of effect of academic grade level on return to competitive play. The primary hypothesis is that high school seniors who undergo ACL reconstruction or knee arthroscopy will be less likely to return to competitive play at 1 year than those in grades 9 to 11. We retrospectively reviewed high school athletes who injured their knee during competitive athletic activity and underwent arthroscopic knee surgery, including ACL reconstruction. We included those 14 to 18 years old at time of surgery and analyzed records for grade level, sporting activity, surgery details, and date of return to play. The definition of return to competitive play was return to same preinjury sport within 1 year of surgery and the sport had to be organized. Our study group included 225 patients that underwent an ACL reconstruction and 74 had knee arthroscopy. Athletes undergoing ACL reconstructions were less likely to return to preinjury sport within 1 year than those undergoing knee arthroscopy (P=0.0163). Seniors were significantly less likely to return to play at 1 year than athletes in grades 9 to 11 after both ACL reconstruction (P<0.0001) and knee arthroscopy (P=0.0335). Although return to competitive play rates remained fairly constant within grades 9 to 11, a precipitous decline by 28.9% and 29.4% in return to play rates occurred in the ACL reconstruction and knee arthroscopy groups, respectively, between the junior and senior years of high school. Although return to competition rates were lower for high school athletes undergoing ACL reconstruction than those undergoing knee arthroscopy, both had declines in return when the surgery occurs during their senior season. These data are useful when interpreting return to play rates. Future studies would benefit from further defining this relationship, or at least, noting the number of "senior" athletes studied. Therapeutic study-Level III.

The OSIRIS-REx Asteroid Sample Return Mission Operations Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gal-Edd, Jonathan S.; Cheuvront, Allan

2015-01-01

OSIRIS-REx is an acronym that captures the scientific objectives: Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security-Regolith Explorer. OSIRIS-REx will thoroughly characterize near-Earth asteroid Bennu (Previously known as 1019551999 RQ36). The OSIRIS-REx Asteroid Sample Return Mission delivers its science using five instruments and radio science along with the Touch-And-Go Sample Acquisition Mechanism (TAGSAM). All of the instruments and data analysis techniques have direct heritage from flown planetary missions. The OSIRIS-REx mission employs a methodical, phased approach to ensure success in meeting the mission's science requirements. OSIRIS-REx launches in September 2016, with a backup launch period occurring one year later. Sampling occurs in 2019. The departure burn from Bennu occurs in March 2021. On September 24, 2023, the Sample Return Capsule (SRC) lands at the Utah Test and Training Range (UTTR). Stardust heritage procedures are followed to transport the SRC to Johnson Space Center, where the samples are removed and delivered to the OSIRIS-REx curation facility. After a six-month preliminary examination period the mission will produce a catalog of the returned sample, allowing the worldwide community to request samples for detailed analysis. Traveling and returning a sample from an Asteroid that has not been explored before requires unique operations consideration. The Design Reference Mission (DRM) ties together spacecraft, instrument and operations scenarios. Asteroid Touch and Go (TAG) has various options varying from ground only to fully automated (natural feature tracking). Spacecraft constraints such as thermo and high gain antenna pointing impact the timeline. The mission is sensitive to navigation errors, so a late command update has been implemented. The project implemented lessons learned from other "small body" missions. The key lesson learned was 'expect the unexpected' and implement planning tools early in the lifecycle. This paper summarizes the ground and spacecraft design as presented at OSIRIS-REx Critical Design Review(CDR) held April 2014.

Patient and medication factors associated with preventable medication waste and possibilities for redispensing.

PubMed

Bekker, C L; van den Bemt, B J F; Egberts, A C G; Bouvy, M L; Gardarsdottir, H

2018-05-02

Background Knowledge on factors related to preventable medication waste and waste-reducing interventions, including redispensing unused medications, is needed to maximise effectiveness. Objective To assess patient and medication factors associated with preventable medication waste and possibilities for redispensing unused medications. Setting Dutch community pharmacies. Methods In this cross-sectional study, pharmacy-staff registered patient and medication characteristics of prescription medications returned to 41 Dutch community pharmacies during 1 week in 2014. Medications were classified as preventable waste if the remaining amount could have been prevented and as theoretically eligible for redispensing if the package was unopened, undamaged and ≥ 6 months until the expiry date. Associations were analysed using multivariate logistic regression. Main outcome measures Proportion of medications classified as preventable waste and as eligible for redispensing, including factors associated with these medications. Results Overall, 279 persons returned 759 (low-cost) medications, and 39.3% was classified as preventable waste. These medications were more frequently used by men than women (OR; 1.7[1.2-2.3]) and by older (> 65 years) than younger patients (OR; 1.4[1.0-2.0]). Medications dispensed for longer periods were more often unnecessary wasted (1-3 months OR; 1.8[1.1-3.0], > 3 months 3.2[1.5-6.9]). Of all returned medications, 19.1% was eligible for redispensing. These medications were more frequently used by men than women (OR; 1.9[1.3-2.9]). Medications chronically used were more frequently eligible for redispensing than acute use (OR; 2.1[1.0-4.3]), and used for longer periods (1-3 months OR; 4.6[2.3-8.9], > 3 months 7.8[3.3-18.5]). Conclusions Over one-third of waste due to medications returned to community pharmacies can be prevented. One-fifth of returned medications can be redispensed, but this seems less interesting from an economic viewpoint.

Developing trading strategies based on fractal finance: An application of MF-DFA in the context of Islamic equities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dewandaru, Ginanjar; Masih, Rumi; Bacha, Obiyathulla Ismath; Masih, A. Mansur. M.

2015-11-01

We provide a new contribution to trading strategies by using multi-fractal de-trended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA), imported from econophysics, to complement various momentum strategies. The method provides a single measure that can capture both persistency and anti-persistency in stock prices, accounting for multifractality. This study uses a sample of Islamic stocks listed in the U.S. Dow Jones Islamic market for a sample period covering 16 years starting in 1996. The findings show that the MF-DFA strategy produces monthly excess returns of 6.12%, outperforming other various momentum strategies. Even though the risk of the MF-DFA strategy may be relatively higher, it can still produce a Sharpe ratio of 0.164, which is substantially higher than that of the other strategies. When we control for the MF-DFA factor with the other factors, its pure factor return is still able to yield a monthly excess return of 1.35%. Finally, we combine the momentum and MF-DFA strategies, with the proportions of 90/10, 80/20, and 70/30 and by doing so we demonstrate that the MF-DFA measure can boost the total monthly excess returns as well as Sharpe ratio. The value added is non-linear which implies that the additional returns are associated with lower incremental risk.

Facilitating Successful Re-Entries in the United States: Training and Development for Women Returners

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Greer, Tomika W.

2013-01-01

Women returners are women who leave the paid workforce for a period of time following the birth of their child(ren) and subsequently seek to return to paid employment. As women returners attempt to re-enter the workforce, many of them are in need of updating their skills or re-training in a new set of skills. In this study, the training and…

University Football Players, Postural Stability, and Concussions.

PubMed

Graves, Barbara Sue

2016-02-01

Concussion in football athletes is certainly more prevalent and has potentially serious outcomes. With current concerns and increasing return-to-play issues, additional assessment focus is needed. Division 1 college football athletes, from 18 to 20.9 years (n = 177; age, 19.7 ± 1.2 years; height, 182.3 ± 4.5 cm; weight, 97.3 ± 10.6 kg), before fall practice, over a period of 3 years, underwent baseline postural stability testing (sensory organization test [SOT], NeuroCom). Individuals, who were diagnosed with a concussion (headache, dizziness, fatigue, confusion, or loss of consciousness) during practice or actual competition (n = 15; age, 18.9 ± 0.9 years; height, 181.8 ± 2.5 cm; weight, 86.6 ± 3.6 kg), underwent serial evaluation after injury and 24 hours after concussion. As soon as the player was considered asymptomatic, the test was completed on the first and 14th day. A control group of noninjured male athletes (n = 15; age, 19.1 ± 0.4 years; height, 178.2 ± 3.2 cm; weight, 78.6 ± 2.1 kg) were tested for the same time frame. This particular study was only one part of the total evaluation conducted for the concussed athlete's return to play. Results indicated that the concussion group had a statistically significant (p = 0.037) change from their baseline SOT score and the control group (p = 0.025). This change remained significant until day 14 of posttesting. These data indicate that the SOT, when available, may be a positive additional assessment of concussed college-aged football players. Professionals, when dealing with concussion in competitive sports, do need to continue to work together, but awareness of SOT assessments may also contribute to the return-to-play decisions.

Weibo sentiments and stock return: A time-frequency view

PubMed Central

Liu, Zhixin; Zhao, Jichang; Su, Chiwei

2017-01-01

This study provides new insights into the relationships between social media sentiments and the stock market in China. Based on machine learning, we classify microblogs posted on Sina Weibo, a Twitter’s variant in China into five detailed sentiments of anger, disgust, fear, joy, and sadness. Using wavelet analysis, we find close positive linkages between sentiments and the stock return, which have both frequency and time-varying features. Five detailed sentiments are positively related to the stock return for certain periods, particularly since October 2014 at medium to high frequencies of less than ten trading days, when the stock return is undergoing significant fluctuations. Sadness appears to have a closer relationship with the stock return than the other four sentiments. As to the lead-lag relationships, the stock return causes Weibo sentiments rather than reverse for most of the periods with significant linkages. Compared with polarity sentiments (negative vs. positive), detailed sentiments provide more information regarding relationships between Weibo sentiments and the stock market. The stock market exerts positive effects on bullishness and agreement of microblogs. Meanwhile, agreement leads the stock return in-phase at the frequency of approximately 40 trading days, indicating that less disagreement improves certainty about the stock market. PMID:28672026

Weibo sentiments and stock return: A time-frequency view.

PubMed

Xu, Yingying; Liu, Zhixin; Zhao, Jichang; Su, Chiwei

2017-01-01

This study provides new insights into the relationships between social media sentiments and the stock market in China. Based on machine learning, we classify microblogs posted on Sina Weibo, a Twitter's variant in China into five detailed sentiments of anger, disgust, fear, joy, and sadness. Using wavelet analysis, we find close positive linkages between sentiments and the stock return, which have both frequency and time-varying features. Five detailed sentiments are positively related to the stock return for certain periods, particularly since October 2014 at medium to high frequencies of less than ten trading days, when the stock return is undergoing significant fluctuations. Sadness appears to have a closer relationship with the stock return than the other four sentiments. As to the lead-lag relationships, the stock return causes Weibo sentiments rather than reverse for most of the periods with significant linkages. Compared with polarity sentiments (negative vs. positive), detailed sentiments provide more information regarding relationships between Weibo sentiments and the stock market. The stock market exerts positive effects on bullishness and agreement of microblogs. Meanwhile, agreement leads the stock return in-phase at the frequency of approximately 40 trading days, indicating that less disagreement improves certainty about the stock market.

Return to work in sick-listed cancer survivors with job loss: design of a randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

van Egmond, Martine P; Duijts, Saskia F A; Vermeulen, Sylvia J; van der Beek, Allard J; Anema, Johannes R

2015-02-18

Despite long-term or permanent health problems, cancer survivors are often motivated to return to work. For cancer survivors who have lost their job, return to work can be more challenging compared to employed survivors, as they generally find themselves in a more vulnerable social and financial position. Cancer survivors with job loss may therefore be in need of tailored return to work support. However, there is a lack of return to work intervention programs specifically targeting these cancer survivors. The number of cancer survivors with job loss in developed countries is rising due to, amongst others, increases in the incidence and survivor rate of cancer, the retirement age and the proportion of flexible employment contracts. Hence, we consider it important to develop a tailored return to work intervention program for cancer survivors with job loss, and to evaluate its effectiveness compared to usual care. This study employs a two-armed randomised controlled trial with a follow-up period of 12 months. The study population (n = 164) will be recruited from a national sample of cancer survivors (18-60 years), who have been sick-listed for 12-36 months. Participants will be randomised by using computerized blocked randomisation (blocks of four). All participants will receive usual care as provided by the Dutch Social Security Agency. Additionally, participants in the intervention group will receive a tailored return to work intervention program, which includes vocational rehabilitation and supportive psychosocial components, as well as (therapeutic) placement at work. The primary outcome measure is duration until sustainable return to work; the secondary outcome measure is rate of return to work. Other parameters include, amongst others, fatigue, coping strategy and quality of life. We will perform Cox regression analyses to estimate hazard ratios for time to sustainable return to work. The hypothesis of this study is that a tailored approach for cancer survivors with job loss is more effective, regarding return to work, compared to usual care. The results of this study will provide insight into the ways in which return to work can be facilitated for cancer survivors with job loss. Netherlands Trial Register: NTR3562 .

Past and present floods in South Moravia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brázdil, Rudolf; Chromá, Kateřina; Řezníčková, Ladislava; Valášek, Hubert; Dolák, Lukáš; Stachoň, Zdeněk; Soukalová, Eva; Dobrovolný, Petr

2015-04-01

Floods represent the most destructive natural phenomena in the Czech Republic, often causing great material damage or loss of human life. Systematic instrumental measurements of water levels in Moravia (the eastern part of the Czech Republic) started mainly in the 1880s-1890s, while for discharges it was in the 1910s-1920s. Different documentary evidence allows extension of our knowledge about floods prior the instrumental period. The paper presents long-term flood chronologies for four South Moravian rivers: the Jihlava, the Svratka, the Dyje and the Morava. Different documentary data are used to extract floods. Taxation records are of particular importance among them. Since the mid-17th century, damage to property and land (fields, meadows, pastures or gardens) entitled farmers and landowners to request a tax relief. Related documents of this administration process kept mainly in Moravian Land Archives in Brno allow to obtain detail information about floods and their impacts. Selection of floods in the instrumental period is based on calculation of N-year return period of peak water levels and/or peak discharges for selected hydrological stations of the corresponding rivers (with return period of two years and more). Final flood chronologies combine floods derived from both documentary data and hydrological measurements. Despite greater inter-decadal variability, periods of higher flood frequency are c. 1821-1850 and 1921-1950 for all four rivers; for the Dyje and Morava rivers also 1891-1900. Flood frequency fluctuations are further compared with other Central European rivers. Uncertainties in created chronologies with respect to data and methods used for compilation of long-term series and anthropogenic changes in river catchments are discussed. The study is a part of the research project "Hydrometeorological extremes in Southern Moravia derived from documentary evidence" supported by the Grant Agency of the Czech Republic, reg. no. 13-19831S.

Comparison between changes in flood hazard and risk in Spain using historical information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llasat, Maria-Carmen; Mediero, Luis; Garrote, Luis; Gilabert, Joan

2015-04-01

Recently, the COST Action ES0901 "European procedures for flood frequency estimation (FloodFreq)" had as objective "the comparison and evaluation of methods for flood frequency estimation under the various climatologic and geographic conditions found in Europe". It was highlighted the improvement of regional analyses on at-site estimates, in terms of the uncertainty of quantile estimates. In the case of Spain, a regional analysis was carried out at a national scale, which allows identifying the flow threshold corresponding to a given return period from the observed flow series recorded at a gauging station. In addition, Mediero et al. (2014) studied the possible influence of non-stationarity on flood series for the period 1942-2009. In parallel, Barnolas and Llasat (2007), among others, collected documentary information of catastrophic flood events in Spain for the last centuries. Traditionally, the first approach ("top-down") usually identifies a flood as catastrophic, when its exceeds the 500-year return period flood. However, the second one ("bottom-up approach") accounts for flood damages (Llasat et al, 2005). This study presents a comparison between both approaches, discussing the potential factors that can lead to discrepancies between them, as well as accounting for information about major changes experienced in the catchment that could lead to changes in flood hazard and risk.

Impact of Short-term Changes In Earthquake Hazard on Risk In Christchurch, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyst, M.

2012-12-01

The recent Mw 7.1, 4 September 2010 Darfield, and Mw 6.2, 22 February 2011 Christchurch, New Zealand earthquakes and the following aftershock activity completely changed the existing view on earthquake hazard of the Christchurch area. Not only have several faults been added to the New Zealand fault database, the main shocks were also followed by significant increases in seismicity due to high aftershock activity throughout the Christchurch region that is still on-going. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) models take into account a stochastic event set, the full range of possible events that can cause damage or loss at a particular location. This allows insurance companies to look at their risk profiles via average annual losses (AAL) and loss-exceedance curves. The loss-exceedance curve is derived from the full suite of seismic events that could impact the insured exposure and plots the probability of exceeding a particular loss level over a certain period. Insurers manage their risk by focusing on a certain return period exceedance benchmark, typically between the 100 and 250 year return period loss level, and then reserve the amount of money needed to account for that return period loss level, their so called capacity. This component of risk management is not too sensitive to short-term changes in risk due to aftershock seismicity, as it is mostly dominated by longer-return period, larger magnitude, more damaging events. However, because the secondairy uncertainties are taken into account when calculating the exceedance probability, even the longer return period losses can still experience significant impact from the inclusion of time-dependent earthquake behavior. AAL is calculated by summing the product of the expected loss level and the annual rate for all events in the event set that cause damage or loss at a particular location. This relatively simple metric is an important factor in setting the annual premiums. By annualizing the expected losses due to events of varying severities and recurrence intervals, annual premium rates can be set with some longer term risk planning in mind. However, this metric is particularly sensitive to high frequency, moderate magnitude events. Inclusion of earthquake aftershock sequence characteristics into the stochastic event set may have a strong impact on the AAL, depending on the time window of aftershocks that is taken into account. We will present our model of the aftershock-derived, time-dependent hazard for the region of the two earthquakes and will bring about a detailed view on regional, short-term hazard. Dealing with this short-term hazard poses a challenge to the earthquake insurance business. In this presentation we will look at these short-term hazard changes from a risk perspective and quantify the impact on earthquake risk in terms of the main risk metrics used in the industry.

Concussion May Increase the Risk of Subsequent Lower Extremity Musculoskeletal Injury in Collegiate Athletes

PubMed Central

Herman, Daniel; Jones, Debi; Harrison, Ashley; Moser, Michael; Tillman, Susan; Farmer, Kevin; Pass, Anthony; Clugston, Jay; Hernandez, Jorge; Chmielewski, Terese

2016-01-01

Background Laboratory-based studies on neuromuscular control after concussion and epidemiological studies suggest that concussion may increase the risk of subsequent musculoskeletal injury. Objective The purpose of this study was to determine if athletes have an increased risk of lower extremity musculoskeletal injury after return-to-play from a concussion. Methods Injury data were collected from 2006–2013 for men’s football and women’s basketball, soccer, and lacrosse at a NCAA Division I university. Ninety cases in 73 athletes (52 Male, 21 Female) of in-season concussion with return-to-play at least 30 days prior to the end of the season were identified. A period of up to 90 days of in-season competition following return-to-play was reviewed for time-loss injury. The same period was studied in up to two control athletes who were without a concussion within the prior year and were matched on sport, starting status, and position. Results Lower extremity musculoskeletal injuries occurred at a higher rate in the concussed athletes (45/90 or 50%) compared to the non-concussed athletes (30/148 or 20%) (p < 0.01). The odds of sustaining a musculoskeletal injury were 3.39 times higher in the concussed athletes (95% CI = 1.90, 6.05; p < 0.01). Overall, the number of days lost due to injury was similar between concussed and non-concussed athletes (Median = 9 vs 15, p = 0.41). Conclusions The results of this study demonstrate a relationship between concussion and an increased risk of lower extremity musculoskeletal injury after return to play, and may have implications for current medical practice standards regarding the evaluation and management of concussion injuries. PMID:27544666

Concussion May Increase the Risk of Subsequent Lower Extremity Musculoskeletal Injury in Collegiate Athletes.

PubMed

Herman, Daniel C; Jones, Debi; Harrison, Ashley; Moser, Michael; Tillman, Susan; Farmer, Kevin; Pass, Anthony; Clugston, James R; Hernandez, Jorge; Chmielewski, Terese L

2017-05-01

Laboratory-based studies on neuromuscular control after concussion and epidemiological studies suggest that concussion may increase the risk of subsequent musculoskeletal injury. The purpose of this study was to determine if athletes have an increased risk of lower extremity musculoskeletal injury after return to play from a concussion. Injury data were collected from 2006 to 2013 for men's football and for women's basketball, soccer and lacrosse at a National Collegiate Athletic Association Division I university. Ninety cases of in-season concussion in 73 athletes (52 male, 21 female) with return to play at least 30 days prior to the end of the season were identified. A period of up to 90 days of in-season competition following return to play was reviewed for time-loss injury. The same period was studied in up to two control athletes who had no concussion within the prior year and were matched for sport, starting status and position. Lower extremity musculoskeletal injuries occurred at a higher rate in the concussed athletes (45/90 or 50 %) than in the non-concussed athletes (30/148 or 20 %; P < 0.01). The odds of sustaining a musculoskeletal injury were 3.39 times higher in the concussed athletes (95 % confidence interval 1.90-6.05; P < 0.01). Overall, the number of days lost because of injury was similar between concussed and non-concussed athletes (median 9 versus 15; P = 0.41). The results of this study demonstrate a relationship between concussion and an increased risk of lower extremity musculoskeletal injury after return to play, and may have implications for current medical practice standards regarding evaluation and management of concussion injuries.

Lithologic and hydrologic controls of mixed alluvial-bedrock channels in flood-prone fluvial systems: bankfull and macrochannels in the Llano River watershed, central Texas, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heitmuller, Frank T.; Hudson, Paul F.; Asquith, William H.

2015-01-01

The rural and unregulated Llano River watershed located in central Texas, USA, has a highly variable flow regime and a wide range of instantaneous peak flows. Abrupt transitions in surface lithology exist along the main-stem channel course. Both of these characteristics afford an opportunity to examine hydrologic, lithologic, and sedimentary controls on downstream changes in channel morphology. Field surveys of channel topography and boundary composition are coupled with sediment analyses, hydraulic computations, flood-frequency analyses, and geographic information system mapping to discern controls on channel geometry (profile, pattern, and shape) and dimensions along the mixed alluvial-bedrock Llano River and key tributaries. Four categories of channel classification in a downstream direction include: (i) uppermost ephemeral reaches, (ii) straight or sinuous gravel-bed channels in Cretaceous carbonate sedimentary zones, (iii) straight or sinuous gravel-bed or bedrock channels in Paleozoic sedimentary zones, and (iv) straight, braided, or multithread mixed alluvial–bedrock channels with sandy beds in Precambrian igneous and metamorphic zones. Principal findings include: (i) a nearly linear channel profile attributed to resistant bedrock incision checkpoints; (ii) statistically significant correlations of both alluvial sinuosity and valley confinement to relatively high f (mean depth) hydraulic geometry values; (iii) relatively high b (width) hydraulic geometry values in partly confined settings with sinuous channels upstream from a prominent incision checkpoint; (iv) different functional flow categories including frequently occurring events (< 1.5-year return periods) that mobilize channel-bed material and less frequent events that determine bankfull channel (1.5- to 3-year return periods) and macrochannel (10- to 40-year return periods) dimensions; (v) macrochannels with high f values (most ≤ 0.45) that develop at sites with unit stream power values in excess of 200 watts per square meter (W/m2); and (vi) downstream convergence of hydraulic geometry exponents for bankfull and macrochannels, explained by co-increases of flood magnitude and noncohesive sandy sediments that collectively minimize development of alluvial bankfull indicators. Collectively, these findings indicate that mixed alluvial–bedrock channels exhibit first-order lithologic controls (lithologic resistance and valley confinement) of channel geometry, second-order hydrologic (flow regime) control of channel dimensions, and third-order sedimentary controls that exert subsidiary influence on channel shape and bed configuration.

Changing Returns to Education in Spain During the 1980s.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vila, Luis-Eduardo; Mora, Jose-Gines

1998-01-01

Presents evidence on returns to education for Spanish employees during the 1980s, a period of remarkable structural transformation. Results show a declining payoff to education between 1981 and 1991 for lower and intermediate educational levels. Higher education does not show a reduction in return. Earnings inequality by gender declined noticeably…

Risk of Secondary Injury in Younger Athletes After Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction

PubMed Central

Wiggins, Amelia J.; Grandhi, Ravi K.; Schneider, Daniel K.; Stanfield, Denver; Webster, Kate E.; Myer, Gregory D.

2017-01-01

Background Injury to the ipsilateral graft used for reconstruction of the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) or a new injury to the contralateral ACL are disastrous outcomes after successful ACL reconstruction (ACLR), rehabilitation, and return to activity. Studies reporting ACL reinjury rates in younger active populations are emerging in the literature, but these data have not yet been comprehensively synthesized. Purpose To provide a current review of the literature to evaluate age and activity level as the primary risk factors in reinjury after ACLR. Study Design Systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods A systematic review of the literature was conducted via searches in PubMed (1966 to July 2015) and EBSCO host (CINAHL, Medline, SPORTDiscus [1987 to July 2015]). After the search and consultation with experts and rating of study quality, 19 articles met inclusion for review and aggregation. Population demographic data and total reinjury (ipsilateral and contralateral) rate data were recorded from each individual study and combined using random-effects meta-analyses. Separate meta-analyses were conducted for the total population data as well as the following subsets: young age, return to sport, and young age + return to sport. Results Overall, the total second ACL reinjury rate was 15%, with an ipsilateral reinjury rate of 7% and contralateral injury rate of 8%. The secondary ACL injury rate (ipsilateral + contralateral) for patients younger than 25 years was 21%. The secondary ACL injury rate for athletes who return to a sport was also 20%. Combining these risk factors, athletes younger than 25 years who return to sport have a secondary ACL injury rate of 23%. Conclusion This systematic review and meta-analysis demonstrates that younger age and a return to high level of activity are salient factors associated with secondary ACL injury. These combined data indicate that nearly 1 in 4 young athletic patients who sustain an ACL injury and return to high-risk sport will go on to sustain another ACL injury at some point in their career, and they will likely sustain it early in the return-to-play period. The high rate of secondary injury in young athletes who return to sport after ACLR equates to a 30 to 40 times greater risk of an ACL injury compared with uninjured adolescents. These data indicate that activity modification, improved rehabilitation and return-to-play guidelines, and the use of integrative neuromuscular training may help athletes more safely reintegrate into sport and reduce second injury in this at-risk population. PMID:26772611

27 CFR 41.113 - Return periods.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... provided by § 41.114, the periods to be covered in the semimonthly tax returns shall be from the 1st day through the 15th day of each month, and from the 16th day through the last day of each month. [T.D. ATF-365, 60 FR 33675, June 28, 1995. Redesignated and amended by T.D. TTB-16, 69 FR 52424, 52425, Aug. 26...

Spatial Intensity Duration Frequency Relationships Using Hierarchical Bayesian Analysis for Urban Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rupa, Chandra; Mujumdar, Pradeep

2016-04-01

In urban areas, quantification of extreme precipitation is important in the design of storm water drains and other infrastructure. Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relationships are generally used to obtain design return level for a given duration and return period. Due to lack of availability of extreme precipitation data for sufficiently large number of years, estimating the probability of extreme events is difficult. Typically, a single station data is used to obtain the design return levels for various durations and return periods, which are used in the design of urban infrastructure for the entire city. In an urban setting, the spatial variation of precipitation can be high; the precipitation amounts and patterns often vary within short distances of less than 5 km. Therefore it is crucial to study the uncertainties in the spatial variation of return levels for various durations. In this work, the extreme precipitation is modeled spatially using the Bayesian hierarchical analysis and the spatial variation of return levels is studied. The analysis is carried out with Block Maxima approach for defining the extreme precipitation, using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution for Bangalore city, Karnataka state, India. Daily data for nineteen stations in and around Bangalore city is considered in the study. The analysis is carried out for summer maxima (March - May), monsoon maxima (June - September) and the annual maxima rainfall. In the hierarchical analysis, the statistical model is specified in three layers. The data layer models the block maxima, pooling the extreme precipitation from all the stations. In the process layer, the latent spatial process characterized by geographical and climatological covariates (lat-lon, elevation, mean temperature etc.) which drives the extreme precipitation is modeled and in the prior level, the prior distributions that govern the latent process are modeled. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm (Metropolis Hastings algorithm within a Gibbs sampler) is used to obtain the samples of parameters from the posterior distribution of parameters. The spatial maps of return levels for specified return periods, along with the associated uncertainties, are obtained for the summer, monsoon and annual maxima rainfall. Considering various covariates, the best fit model is selected using Deviance Information Criteria. It is observed that the geographical covariates outweigh the climatological covariates for the monsoon maxima rainfall (latitude and longitude). The best covariates for summer maxima and annual maxima rainfall are mean summer precipitation and mean monsoon precipitation respectively, including elevation for both the cases. The scale invariance theory, which states that statistical properties of a process observed at various scales are governed by the same relationship, is used to disaggregate the daily rainfall to hourly scales. The spatial maps of the scale are obtained for the study area. The spatial maps of IDF relationships thus generated are useful in storm water designs, adequacy analysis and identifying the vulnerable flooding areas.

Precipitation intensity-duration-frequency curves for central Belgium with an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX simulations, and associated uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hosseinzadehtalaei, Parisa; Tabari, Hossein; Willems, Patrick

2018-02-01

An ensemble of 88 regional climate model (RCM) simulations at 0.11° and 0.44° spatial resolutions from the EURO-CORDEX project is analyzed for central Belgium to investigate the projected impact of climate change on precipitation intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationships and extreme precipitation quantiles typically used in water engineering designs. The rate of uncertainty arising from the choice of RCM, driving GCM, and radiative concentration pathway (RCP4.5 & RCP8.5) is quantified using a variance decomposition technique after reconstruction of missing data in GCM × RCM combinations. A comparative analysis between the historical simulations of the EURO-CORDEX 0.11° and 0.44° RCMs shows higher precipitation intensities by the finer resolution runs, leading to a larger overestimation of the observations-based IDFs by the 0.11° runs. The results reveal that making a temporal stationarity assumption for the climate system may lead to underestimation of precipitation quantiles up to 70% by the end of this century. This projected increase is generally larger for the 0.11° RCMs compared with the 0.44° RCMs. The relative changes in extreme precipitation do depend on return period and duration, indicating an amplification for larger return periods and for smaller durations. The variance decomposition approach generally identifies RCM as the most dominant component of uncertainty in changes of more extreme precipitation (return period of 10 years) for both 0.11° and 0.44° resolutions, followed by GCM and RCP scenario. The uncertainties associated with cross-contributions of RCMs, GCMs, and RCPs play a non-negligible role in the associated uncertainties of the changes.

Return to Work After Temporary Disability Pension in Finland.

PubMed

Laaksonen, Mikko; Gould, Raija

2015-09-01

When it is possible that the employee's work ability can be restored through treatment or rehabilitation, disability pension in Finland is granted for a fixed period. We examined which factors are associated with return to work (RTW) after such temporary disability pension. The study included all Finnish residents whose temporary disability pension from the earnings-related pension system started in 2008 (N = 10,269). Competing risks regression analysis was applied to examine register-based determinants for RTW after temporary disability pension due to mental disorders, musculoskeletal diseases, other diseases, and injury over a 4-year follow-up period. The overall cumulative incidence of RTW was 25%. RTW was more probable after temporary disability pension due to injury and musculoskeletal diseases and less probable after temporary disability pension due to mental disorders. Younger age and higher education increased RTW but differences between genders, private and public sector employees, and occupational classes were relatively small. The probability of RTW was higher among those who were employed before their temporary disability pension (subhazard ratio in multivariate analysis 2.41 (95% CI 2.13-2.72) and among the 9% who participated in vocational rehabilitation during their pension [SHR 2.10 (95% CI 1.90-2.31)]. With some exceptions, the results were fairly similar for all diagnostic causes of temporary disability pension. Return to work after temporary disability pension was relatively uncommon. Nevertheless, in all diagnostic groups RTW continued for the whole follow-up period. The low educated and those not employed before temporary disability pension need more support in their RTW. The strong association between vocational rehabilitation and RTW suggests that increasing rehabilitation among those with impaired work ability may promote RTW.

Endowments Celebrate a Streak

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van der Werf, Martin

2007-01-01

The return of college endowments from the depths of the market earlier this decade continued to gain momentum. Endowments returned an average of 10.7 percent in the 2006 fiscal year, up from the previous year's return of 9.3 percent. The largest endowments earned the best returns, allowing the wealthiest of colleges to put even more distance…

Role of disease and demographic factors as determinants of return migration: A nationwide register-based cohort study.

PubMed

Handlos, Line Neerup; Petersen, Jorgen Holm; Bygbjerg, Ib Christian; Norredam, Marie

2018-03-01

A number of aspects of the health status of migrants who return to their country of origin have been explored in the literature; however, a more general description of the incidence of disease and demographic characteristics is lacking. The aim of this research was to contribute such a description. A nationwide cohort study was conducted of 114,331 migrants who obtained residence in Denmark between 1 January 1993 and 31 December 2010. Demographic characteristics and ten disease groups were included as explanatory variables and hazards ratios for the association between return migration and disease incidence, as well as demographic characteristics, were estimated using Cox regressions. The tendency to return-migrate when ill was not the same among younger and elderly migrants; migrants <55 years of age had a significantly smaller propensity to return-migrate if they had suffered from a disease during the 18 years of follow-up compared with those who had not had a disease, whereas migrants ≥55 years of age were more prone to return if ill. The likelihood of returning decreased with increasing comorbidity in both age groups. Among those who were <55 years of age, the tendency to return increased with age at obtainment of residence; among those who were ≥55 years, more men than women return-migrated. In Denmark, younger migrants are less inclined to return-migrate if they are ill compared with healthy migrants, whereas elderly migrants are more inclined to return if ill. The returnees also differ demographically from non-returnees in various ways.

Switching gains and health plan price elasticities: 20 years of managed competition reforms in The Netherlands.

PubMed

Douven, Rudy; Katona, Katalin; T Schut, Frederik; Shestalova, Victoria

2017-11-01

In this paper we estimate health plan price elasticities and financial switching gains for consumers over a 20-year period in which managed competition was introduced in the Dutch health insurance market. The period is characterized by a major health insurance reform in 2006 to provide health insurers with more incentives and tools to compete, and to provide consumers with a more differentiated choice of products. Prior to the reform, in the period 1995-2005, we find a low number of switchers, between 2 and 4% a year, modest average total switching gains of 2 million euros per year and short-term health plan price elasticities ranging from -0.1 to -0.4. The major reform in 2006 resulted in an all-time high switching rate of 18%, total switching gains of 130 million euros, and a high short-term price elasticity of -5.7. During 2007-2015 switching rates returned to lower levels, between 4 and 8% per year, with total switching gains in the order of 40 million euros per year on average. Total switching gains could have been 10 times higher if all consumers had switched to one of the cheapest plans. We find short-term price elasticities ranging between -0.9 and -2.2. Our estimations suggest substantial consumer inertia throughout the entire period, as we find degrees of choice persistence ranging from about 0.8 to 0.9.

The effectiveness of a monetary incentive offer on survey response rates and response completeness in a longitudinal study.

PubMed

Yu, Shengchao; Alper, Howard E; Nguyen, Angela-Maithy; Brackbill, Robert M; Turner, Lennon; Walker, Deborah J; Maslow, Carey B; Zweig, Kimberly C

2017-04-26

Achieving adequate response rates is an ongoing challenge for longitudinal studies. The World Trade Center Health Registry is a longitudinal health study that periodically surveys a cohort of ~71,000 people exposed to the 9/11 terrorist attacks in New York City. Since Wave 1, the Registry has conducted three follow-up surveys (Waves 2-4) every 3-4 years and utilized various strategies to increase survey participation. A promised monetary incentive was offered for the first time to survey non-respondents in the recent Wave 4 survey, conducted 13-14 years after 9/11. We evaluated the effectiveness of a monetary incentive in improving the response rate five months after survey launch, and assessed whether or not response completeness was compromised due to incentive use. The study compared the likelihood of returning a survey for those who received an incentive offer to those who did not, using logistic regression models. Among those who returned surveys, we also examined whether those receiving an incentive notification had higher rate of response completeness than those who did not, using negative binomial regression models and logistic regression models. We found that a $10 monetary incentive offer was effective in increasing Wave 4 response rates. Specifically, the $10 incentive offer was useful in encouraging initially reluctant participants to respond to the survey. The likelihood of returning a survey increased by 30% for those who received an incentive offer (AOR = 1.3, 95% CI: 1.1, 1.4), and the incentive increased the number of returned surveys by 18%. Moreover, our results did not reveal any significant differences on response completeness between those who received an incentive offer and those who did not. In the face of the growing challenge of maintaining a high response rate for the World Trade Center Health Registry follow-up surveys, this study showed the value of offering a monetary incentive as an additional refusal conversion strategy. Our findings also suggest that an incentive offer could be particularly useful near the end of data collection period when an immediate boost in response rate is needed.

Quantitative assessment of direct and indirect landslide risk along transportation lines in southern India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaiswal, P.; van Westen, C. J.; Jetten, V.

2010-06-01

A quantitative approach for landslide risk assessment along transportation lines is presented and applied to a road and a railway alignment in the Nilgiri hills in southern India. The method allows estimating direct risk affecting the alignments, vehicles and people, and indirect risk resulting from the disruption of economic activities. The data required for the risk estimation were obtained from historical records. A total of 901 landslides were catalogued initiating from cut slopes along the railway and road alignment. The landslides were grouped into three magnitude classes based on the landslide type, volume, scar depth, run-out distance, etc and their probability of occurrence was obtained using frequency-volume distribution. Hazard, for a given return period, expressed as the number of landslides of a given magnitude class per kilometre of cut slopes, was obtained using Gumbel distribution and probability of landslide magnitude. In total 18 specific hazard scenarios were generated using the three magnitude classes and six return periods (1, 3, 5, 15, 25, and 50 years). The assessment of the vulnerability of the road and railway line was based on damage records whereas the vulnerability of different types of vehicles and people was subjectively assessed based on limited historic incidents. Direct specific loss for the alignments (railway line and road), vehicles (train, bus, lorry, car and motorbike) was expressed in monetary value (US), and direct specific loss of life of commuters was expressed in annual probability of death. Indirect specific loss (US) derived from the traffic interruption was evaluated considering alternative driving routes, and includes losses resulting from additional fuel consumption, additional travel cost, loss of income to the local business, and loss of revenue to the railway department. The results indicate that the total loss, including both direct and indirect loss, from 1 to 50 years return period, varies from US 90 840 to US 779 500 and the average annual total loss was estimated as US 35 000. The annual probability of a person most at risk travelling in a bus, lorry, car, motorbike and train is less than 10-4/annum in all the time periods considered. The detailed estimation of direct and indirect risk will facilitate developing landslide risk mitigation and management strategies for transportation lines in the study area.

Floods of April 28, 1966 in the northern part of Dallas, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mills, Willard B.; Schroeder, Elmer E.

1969-01-01

The flood was caused by a 5-hour storm in the early hours of April 28. Antecedent rainfall had so saturated the area that the intense, but relatively low, total rainfall (less than a 50-year return period) caused historical floods to be exceeded at many points. A peak runoff rate of 3,160 cubic feet per second per square mile occurred on a 1.5 square-mile area within the watershed.

Nuclear Plant Siting Study. Volume 1

DTIC Science & Technology

1976-06-01

electric gene - rating plant is located approximately 0.6 miles south of the New River in Montgomery County, Virginia. The site lies within the confines of...frequencies;* the 100-year return period for snow and ice storms;* and specific data for the ultimate heat sink. Table 2.3-9 presents a summary of those...64 with occasionial snow falls to very warm and humid summers. The regional airflow is predcminantly southerly cxcept during the 4inter when northerly

Hydrological response to climate change in the Lesse and the Vesdre catchments: contribution of a physically based model (Wallonia, Belgium)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bauwens, A.; Sohier, C.; Degré, A.

2011-06-01

The Meuse is an important rain-fed river in North-Western Europe. Nine million people live in its catchment, split over five countries. Projected changes in precipitation and temperature characteristics due to climate change would have a significant impact on the Meuse River and its tributaries. In this study, we focused on the impacts of climate change on the hydrology of two sub-catchments of the Meuse in Belgium, the Lesse and the Vesdre, placing the emphasis on the water-soil-plant continuum in order to highlight the effects of climate change on plant growth, and water uptake on the hydrology of two sub-catchments. These effects were studied using two climate scenarios and a physically based distributed model, which reflects the water-soil-plant continuum. Our results show that the vegetation will evapotranspirate between 10 and 17 % less at the end of the century because of water scarcity in summer, even if the root development is better under climate change conditions. In the low scenario, the mean minimal 7 days discharge value could decrease between 19 and 24 % for a two year return period, and between 20 and 35 % for a fifty year return period. It will lead to rare but severe drought in rivers, with potentially huge consequences on water quality.

Assessment of big floods in the Eastern Black Sea Basin of Turkey.

PubMed

Yüksek, Ömer; Kankal, Murat; Üçüncü, Osman

2013-01-01

In this study, general knowledge and some details of the floods in Eastern Black Sea Basin of Turkey are presented. Brief hydro-meteorological analysis of selected nine floods and detailed analysis of the greatest flood are given. In the studied area, 51 big floods have taken place between 1955-2005 years, causing 258 deaths and nearly US $500,000,000 of damage. Most of the floods have occurred in June, July and August. It is concluded that especially for the rainstorms that have caused significantly damages, the return periods of the rainfall heights and resultant flood discharges have gone up to 250 and 500 years, respectively. A general agreement is observed between the return periods of rains and resultant floods. It is concluded that there has been no significant climate change to cause increases in flood harms. The most important human factors to increase the damage are determined as wrong and illegal land use, deforestation and wrong urbanization and settlement, psychological and technical factors. Some structural and non-structural measures to mitigate flood damages are also included in the paper. Structural measures include dykes and flood levees. Main non-structural measures include flood warning system, modification of land use, watershed management and improvement, flood insurance, organization of flood management studies, coordination between related institutions and education of the people and informing of the stakeholders.

Statistical trend analysis and extreme distribution of significant wave height from 1958 to 1999 - an application to the Italian Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martucci, G.; Carniel, S.; Chiggiato, J.; Sclavo, M.; Lionello, P.; Galati, M. B.

2010-06-01

The study is a statistical analysis of sea states timeseries derived using the wave model WAM forced by the ERA-40 dataset in selected areas near the Italian coasts. For the period 1 January 1958 to 31 December 1999 the analysis yields: (i) the existence of a negative trend in the annual- and winter-averaged sea state heights; (ii) the existence of a turning-point in late 80's in the annual-averaged trend of sea state heights at a site in the Northern Adriatic Sea; (iii) the overall absence of a significant trend in the annual-averaged mean durations of sea states over thresholds; (iv) the assessment of the extreme values on a time-scale of thousand years. The analysis uses two methods to obtain samples of extremes from the independent sea states: the r-largest annual maxima and the peak-over-threshold. The two methods show statistical differences in retrieving the return values and more generally in describing the significant wave field. The r-largest annual maxima method provides more reliable predictions of the extreme values especially for small return periods (<100 years). Finally, the study statistically proves the existence of decadal negative trends in the significant wave heights and by this it conveys useful information on the wave climatology of the Italian seas during the second half of the 20th century.

Antimicrobial resistance in Shigella spp. causing traveller's diarrhoea (1995-2010): a retrospective analysis.

PubMed

Pons, M J; Gomes, C; Martínez-Puchol, S; Ruiz, L; Mensa, L; Vila, J; Gascón, J; Ruiz, J

2013-01-01

Shigellosis is a global human health problem causing an important morbidity among travellers returning from tropical areas. This study was aimed to describe the evolution of antimicrobial resistance profile in Shigella spp. isolated between the years 1995-2010 in patients with traveller's diarrhoea (TD) returning from tropical areas. The levels of antimicrobial resistance were tested in a total of 191 Shigella spp. isolated during the period from 1995 to 2010. A decrease of cases of diarrhoea caused by Shigella has been observed in recent years. A wide spectrum of antibiotic resistance was observed among Shigella spp. These isolates showed high levels of resistance to tetracycline (84%), co-trimoxazole (75.5%), and ampicillin (45.5%). The resistance was low to ciprofloxacin (2.1%), azithromycin (3.9%) and furazolidone (8.4%). According to the period, in the case of ampicillin, amoxicillin plus clavulanic acid, chloramphenicol, values of resistance were significantly decreasing from 1995-2000 to 2001-2010, (62.5% vs. 28.4%, 19.8% vs. 6.6%, 23.4 vs. 10.4%, respectively). Meanwhile in nalidixic acid and tetracycline the evolution of resistance has increased over time. A decrease in the isolation number of Shigella spp. causing TD has been observed. Differential trends in the evolution of the levels of resistance to the tested antibacterial agents have been observed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Factors associated with non-return to work in the severely injured victims 3 years after a road accident: A prospective study.

PubMed

Pélissier, C; Fort, E; Fontana, L; Charbotel, B; Hours, M

2017-09-01

Road accidents may impact victims' physical and/or mental health and socio-occupational life, particularly the capacity to return to work. The purpose of our study is to assess modifiable medical and socio-occupational factors of non-return to work in the severely injured 3 years after a road accident. Among1,168 road accidents casualties in the Rhône administrative Département of France followed for five years, 141 of the 222 severely injured (Maximal Abbreviated Injury Scale ≥ 3) aged more than 16 years who were in work at the time of the accident, reported whether they had returned to work in the 3 years following the accident. The subgroups of those who had (n=113) and had not returned to work (n=28) were compared for socio-occupational (gender, age, educational level, marital status, socio-occupational group) accident-related medical factors (type of road user, type of journey, responsibility in the accident, initial care) and post-accident medical factors (pain intensity, post-traumatic stress disorder, physical sequelae, quality of life) by using standardized tools. Severity of initial head, face and lower-limb injury, intense persistent pain, post-traumatic stress disorder, poor self-assessed quality of life and health status at 3 years were associated with non-return to work on univariate analysis. On multivariate analysis, severity of initial head and lower-limb injury, intense persistent pain at 3 years and post-traumatic stress disorder were significantly associated with non-return to work 3 years following severe road-accident injury. Post-traumatic stress disorder and chronic pain were essential modifiable medical determinants of non-return to work in the severely injured after a road accident: early adapted management could promote return to work in the severely injured. Improve early adapted treatment of pain and PTSD in the rehabilitation team should help the severely injured return to work following a road accident. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effectiveness of a multidisciplinary care program on recovery and return to work of patients after gynaecological surgery; design of a randomized controlled trial

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Return to work after gynaecological surgery takes much longer than expected, irrespective of the level of invasiveness. In order to empower patients in recovery and return to work, a multidisciplinary care program consisting of an e-health intervention and integrated care management including participatory workplace intervention was developed. Methods/Design We designed a randomized controlled trial to assess the effect of the multidisciplinary care program on full sustainable return to work in patients after gynaecological surgery, compared to usual clinical care. Two hundred twelve women (18-65 years old) undergoing hysterectomy and/or laparoscopic adnexal surgery on benign indication in one of the 7 participating (university) hospitals in the Netherlands are expected to take part in this study at baseline. The primary outcome measure is sick leave duration until full sustainable return to work and is measured by a monthly calendar of sickness absence during 26 weeks after surgery. Secondary outcome measures are the effect of the care program on general recovery, quality of life, pain intensity and complications, and are assessed using questionnaires at baseline, 2, 6, 12 and 26 weeks after surgery. Discussion The discrepancy between expected physical recovery and actual return to work after gynaecological surgery contributes to the relevance of this study. There is strong evidence that long periods of sick leave can result in work disability, poorer general health and increased risk of mental health problems. We expect that this multidisciplinary care program will improve peri-operative care, contribute to a faster return to work of patients after gynaecological surgery and, as a consequence, will reduce societal costs considerably. Trial registration Netherlands Trial Register (NTR): NTR2087 PMID:22296950

Effectiveness of a multidisciplinary care program on recovery and return to work of patients after gynaecological surgery; design of a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Vonk Noordegraaf, Antonie; Huirne, Judith A F; Brölmann, Hans A M; Emanuel, Mark H; van Kesteren, Paul J M; Kleiverda, Gunilla; Lips, Jos P; Mozes, Alexander; Thurkow, Andreas L; van Mechelen, Willem; Anema, Johannes R

2012-02-01

Return to work after gynaecological surgery takes much longer than expected, irrespective of the level of invasiveness. In order to empower patients in recovery and return to work, a multidisciplinary care program consisting of an e-health intervention and integrated care management including participatory workplace intervention was developed. We designed a randomized controlled trial to assess the effect of the multidisciplinary care program on full sustainable return to work in patients after gynaecological surgery, compared to usual clinical care. Two hundred twelve women (18-65 years old) undergoing hysterectomy and/or laparoscopic adnexal surgery on benign indication in one of the 7 participating (university) hospitals in the Netherlands are expected to take part in this study at baseline. The primary outcome measure is sick leave duration until full sustainable return to work and is measured by a monthly calendar of sickness absence during 26 weeks after surgery. Secondary outcome measures are the effect of the care program on general recovery, quality of life, pain intensity and complications, and are assessed using questionnaires at baseline, 2, 6, 12 and 26 weeks after surgery. The discrepancy between expected physical recovery and actual return to work after gynaecological surgery contributes to the relevance of this study. There is strong evidence that long periods of sick leave can result in work disability, poorer general health and increased risk of mental health problems. We expect that this multidisciplinary care program will improve peri-operative care, contribute to a faster return to work of patients after gynaecological surgery and, as a consequence, will reduce societal costs considerably. Netherlands Trial Register (NTR): NTR2087.

Reunifying abused or neglected children: Decision-making and outcomes.

PubMed

Biehal, Nina; Sinclair, Ian; Wade, Jim

2015-11-01

Little is known about decision-making regarding the reunification of children in care, or about the consequences of these decisions for the children concerned. This study compared decision-making and outcomes for 149 maltreated children in seven English authorities (68 reunified, 81 who remained in care). Children were followed up six months after their return home or, for those who were not reunified, six months after the 'effective decision' that they should remain in care. They were followed up again four years (on average) after the return or effective decision. Data were extracted from case files at baseline and six month follow-up and were gathered from surveys of social workers and teachers at final follow-up. The two key predictors of reunification were assessments that parental problems had improved and that risks to the child were not unacceptably high. Two-thirds returned to improved family circumstances, sometimes due to a change in the household they returned to, but others were reunified despite persisting concerns. However 35% re-entered care within six months and 63% re-entered at some point during the four-year follow-up period, often due to recurring abuse or neglect. At final follow-up remaining in care was the strongest predictor of positive outcomes on a range of dimensions, even once children's characteristics and histories were taken into account. Outcomes were especially poor for neglected children who were reunified, irrespective of whether reunification was stable or unstable. Results show the potential of the care system to produce positive outcomes for maltreated children. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Marine envenomations in returning French travellers seen in a tropical diseases unit, 2008-13.

PubMed

Henn, Aurélia; Pérignon, Alice; Monsel, Gentiane; Larréché, Sébastien; Caumes, Eric

2016-02-01

Travel and aquatic activities are increasing in tropical regions. The risk and the spectrum of marine envenomation are unknown in travellers. This work aims to evaluate the prevalence and the characteristics of marine envenomations in returning travellers. We retrospectively studied the medical charts of all returning travellers presenting with a health problem in a French tropical disease unit between 2008 and 2013, with focus on travellers complaining of marine envenomation. Characteristics of each type of envenomation are described. Of the 3315 travellers seen during the study period, 43 consulted for a presumed marine envenomation. Six patients were excluded, leaving 37 cases of confirmed marine envenomation. It corresponds to a prevalence of 1.1%. Sex ratio was balanced with 18 men and 19 women. Median age was 42 years (range 25-68 years). Median travel duration was 14 days (range: 6-62 days). The main travel destination was Southeast Asia in 10 cases, followed by islands of East Africa in seven cases. Median elapsed time between envenomation and consultation was 14 days (range: 2-130 days). The purpose of travel was tourism in all cases. The main clinical aspects were oedema, sting marks, cellulitis and flagellations. Eleven cases were presumably caused by corals, 10 by stonefish, 8 by jellyfish, 2 by weever fish, 2 by starfish, 2 by stingray, 1 by lionfish and 1 by sea anemone. Prevalence of marine envenomation is low in returning travellers. They are mostly caused by corals, stonefish and jellyfish. © International Society of Travel Medicine, 2016. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The role of financial market performance in hospital capital investment.

PubMed

Reiter, Kristin L; Song, Paula H

2011-01-01

Many not-for-profit hospitals hold large portfolios of financial investments, making them vulnerable to fluctuations in market performance. This article examines the association of bond and equity market performance with investment in property, plant, and equipment by 194 not-for-profit general hospitals in California over the period 1997 to 2006. The study combines retrospective panel data from the California Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development with year-end returns on the S&P 500 and ten-year US Treasury bonds. Using fixed-effects regression, we find a significant positive association between S&P 500 performance and hospitals' capital investment; investment is not correlated with ten-year Treasury bond performance.

Effectiveness of and Financial Returns to Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention in South Africa: An Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

PubMed

Haacker, Markus; Fraser-Hurt, Nicole; Gorgens, Marelize

2016-05-01

Empirical studies and population-level policy simulations show the importance of voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) in generalized epidemics. This paper complements available scenario-based studies (projecting costs and outcomes over some policy period, typically spanning decades) by adopting an incremental approach-analyzing the expected consequences of circumcising one male individual with specific characteristics in a specific year. This approach yields more precise estimates of VMMC's cost-effectiveness and identifies the outcomes of current investments in VMMC (e.g., within a fiscal budget period) rather than of investments spread over the entire policy period. The model has three components. We adapted the ASSA2008 model, a demographic and epidemiological model of the HIV epidemic in South Africa, to analyze the impact of one VMMC on HIV incidence over time and across the population. A costing module tracked the costs of VMMC and the resulting financial savings owing to reduced HIV incidence over time. Then, we used several financial indicators to assess the cost-effectiveness of and financial return on investments in VMMC. One circumcision of a young man up to age 20 prevents on average over 0.2 HIV infections, but this effect declines steeply with age, e.g., to 0.08 by age 30. Net financial savings from one VMMC at age 20 are estimated at US$617 at a discount rate of 5% and are lower for circumcisions both at younger ages (because the savings occur later and are discounted more) and at older ages (because male circumcision becomes less effective). Investments in male circumcision carry a financial rate of return of up to 14.5% (for circumcisions at age 20). The cost of a male circumcision is refinanced fastest, after 13 y, for circumcisions at ages 20 to 25. Principal limitations of the analysis arise from the long time (decades) over which the effects of VMMC unfold-the results are therefore sensitive to the discount rate applied, and more generally to the future course of the epidemic and of HIV/AIDS-related policies pursued by the government. VMMC in South Africa is highly effective in reducing both HIV incidence and the financial costs of the HIV response. The return on investment is highest if males are circumcised between ages 20 and 25, but this return on investment declines steeply with age.

KSC-05pd2530

NASA Image and Video Library

2005-11-30

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In Orbiter Processing Facility Bay 2, the nose cap of space shuttle Endeavour is prepared for installation of thermal protection system blankets. Endeavour recently came out of a nearly two-year Orbiter Major Modification period which began in December 2003. Engineers and technicians spent 900,000 hours performing 124 modifications to the vehicle. These included all recommended return-to-flight safety modifications, bonding more than 1,000 thermal protection system tiles and inspecting more than 150 miles of wiring throughout the orbiter. Shuttle major modification periods are scheduled at regular intervals to enhance safety and performance, infuse new technology, and allow for thorough inspections of the airframe and wiring of the vehicles. This was the second of these modification periods performed entirely at Kennedy Space Center. Endeavour's previous modification was completed in March 1997.

Coastal monitoring solutions of the geomorphological response of beach-dune systems using multi-temporal LiDAR datasets (Vendée coast, France)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Mauff, Baptiste; Juigner, Martin; Ba, Antoine; Robin, Marc; Launeau, Patrick; Fattal, Paul

2018-03-01

Three beach and dune systems located in the northeastern part of the Bay of Biscay in France were monitored over 5 years with a time series of three airborne LiDAR datasets. The three study sites illustrate a variety of morphological beach types found in this region. Reproducible monitoring solutions adapted to basic and complex beach and dune morphologies using LiDAR time series were investigated over two periods bounded by the three surveys. The first period (between May 2008 and August 2010) is characterized by a higher prevalence of storm events, and thus has a greater potential for eroding the coast, than the second period (between August 2010 and September 2013). During the first period, the central and northeastern part of the Bay of Biscay was notably impacted by Storm Xynthia, with water levels and wave heights exceeding the 10-year return period and 1-year return period, respectively. Despite differences in dune morphology between the sites, the dune crest (Dhigh) and the dune base (Dlow) are efficiently extracted from each DEM. Based on the extracted dune base, an original shoreline mobility indicator is built displaying a combination of the horizontal and vertical migrations of this geomorphic indicator between two LiDAR datasets. A 'Geomorphic Change Detection' is also completed by computing DEMs of Difference (DoD) resulting in segregated maps of erosion and deposition and sediment budgets. Accounting for the accuracy of LiDAR datasets, a probabilistic approach at a 95% confidence interval is used as a threshold for the Geomorphic Change Detection showing more reliable results. However, caution should be taken when interpreting thresholded maps of changes and sediment budgets because some beach processes may be masked, especially on wide tidal beaches, by only keeping the most significant changes. The results of the shoreline mobility and Geomorphic Change Detection show a high variability in the beach responses between and within the three study sites, explained mainly by beach orientation and local factors. Despite variable site-specific mechanisms, the recovery processes redistribute the available sand more on the upper parts of the beach, producing significant deposition generally in the form of embryo dunes. The monitoring of the beach and dune systems with airborne LiDAR datasets reveals that the three study sites show diverse behaviours during the first period likely associated with storms, while the analysis show more homogenous beach responses during the second period likely associated with a recovery phase.

An empirical assessment of which inland floods can be managed.

PubMed

Mogollón, Beatriz; Frimpong, Emmanuel A; Hoegh, Andrew B; Angermeier, Paul L

2016-02-01

Riverine flooding is a significant global issue. Although it is well documented that the influence of landscape structure on floods decreases as flood size increases, studies that define a threshold flood-return period, above which landscape features such as topography, land cover and impoundments can curtail floods, are lacking. Further, the relative influences of natural versus built features on floods is poorly understood. Assumptions about the types of floods that can be managed have considerable implications for the cost-effectiveness of decisions to invest in transforming land cover (e.g., reforestation) and in constructing structures (e.g., storm-water ponds) to control floods. This study defines parameters of floods for which changes in landscape structure can have an impact. We compare nine flood-return periods across 31 watersheds with widely varying topography and land cover in the southeastern United States, using long-term hydrologic records (≥20 years). We also assess the effects of built flow-regulating features (best management practices and artificial water bodies) on selected flood metrics across urban watersheds. We show that landscape features affect magnitude and duration of only those floods with return periods ≤10 years, which suggests that larger floods cannot be managed effectively by manipulating landscape structure. Overall, urban watersheds exhibited larger (270 m(3)/s) but quicker (0.41 days) floods than non-urban watersheds (50 m(3)/s and 1.5 days). However, urban watersheds with more flow-regulating features had lower flood magnitudes (154 m(3)/s), but similar flood durations (0.55 days), compared to urban watersheds with fewer flow-regulating features (360 m(3)/s and 0.23 days). Our analysis provides insight into the magnitude, duration and count of floods that can be curtailed by landscape structure and its management. Our findings are relevant to other areas with similar climate, topography, and land use, and can help ensure that investments in flood management are made wisely after considering the limitations of landscape features to regulate floods. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the return periods of water crises and evaporation in Monte Cotugno reservoir (Southern Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Copertino, Vito; Lo Vecchio, Giuseppina; Marotta, Lucia; Pastore, Vittoria; Ponzio, Giuseppe; Scavone, Giuseppina; Telesca, Vito; Vita, Michele

2010-05-01

In the past water resources management has been dealt and solved increasing water availabilities; today such opportunities have been considerably reduced and the technical-scientific perspectives are addressed above all to improve water system effectiveness and to promote an use of water resources that holds account of the droughts frequency and based on a correct estimate of the hydrologic balance. In this work a study on the water stored in Monte Cotugno reservoir in Sinni river - Basilicata (Southern Italy) - is proposed, estimating water crises return periods and reservoir evaporation. For such purpose the runs method was applied, based on the comparison between the temporal series of the "water volume" hydrological variable and a threshold representative of the "normal" conditions regarding which the availability in excess or defect was estimated. This allowed to individualize the beginning and the end of a water crisis event and to characterize the droughts in terms of duration, sum deficit and intensity. Therefore the return period was evaluated by means of the methodology proposed by Shiau and Shen in 2001, turned out equal approximately to 6 years. Such value was then verified with a frequency analysis of the "water volume" random variable, using the Weibull's distribution. Subsequently, the Fourier's analysis in the last twenty years was carried out, obtaining the same result of the previous methods. Moreover, in proximity of the Monte Cotugno reservoir the weather station of Senise is located, managed by ALSIA (Agenzia Lucana di Sviluppo e Innovazione in Agricultura), that provides in continuous measurements of air temperature and humidity, wind speed and direction, and global solar radiation since 2000. Such parameters allowed to apply five methods for reservoir evaporation estimate selected from those proposed in the literature, of which the first three, the Jensen-Haise's method, Makkink's method and Stephens-Stewart's one are based on solar radiation and temperature, while the Blaney-Criddle's method is based on temperature and duration of the day, and the Thornthwaite's method is based only on air temperature measurement.

A 21st century investigation of the lightning spectrum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, Thomas Daniel

In the mid 1960s, Martin Uman, Leon Salanave and Richard Orville laid the foundation for lightning spectroscopy. They were among the first to acquire time resolved return stroke spectra and the first to use spectroscopy as a diagnostic technique to characterize physical properties of the lightning channel. Now, almost 50 years later, technology, including CMOS and CCD high speed cameras, volume-phase holographic (VPH) gratings, and triggered lightning, has progressed to the point at which new studies in lightning spectroscopy are needed to verify and extend past measurements. New spectral lines have been discovered in the lightning spectrum as a result of the modern studies, mainly doubly ionized nitrogen lines which had not been observed in the past. The modern technique uses CMOS and CCD cameras with frame rates of up to 1Mfps with exposure down to 0.5mus. The high frame rate paired with camera memory enables a view into the quick high temperature heating period within the first few microseconds of the return stroke, as well as a detailed look at the cooling period which can last for milliseconds. The spectra are recorded digitally and discretely, hence the data can be summed to to view different exposure times revealing long lasting low emission lines during the cooling period as well. Spectral line identification for the natural and triggered lightning are for a range of wavelengths from soft ultraviolet around 3800A to the near infrared at 9500A. The first few microseconds of the lightning return stroke spectrum consists of hydrogen from disassociated water and singly and doubly ionized lines of atomic atmospheric constituents, i.e. argon, nitrogen, and oxygen. Temperatures calculated during this period have been measured above 40000 K. The peak temperature is measured from the first spectrum of the return stroke. After this the channel continuously cools over the lifetime of the return stroke unless there is an increase in the continuing current. Tens of microseconds after the onset, a cool period in the spectra exists which consists solely of neutral atomic emission lines. The cooling period temperature measurements begin in the low 20000 K range and decrease slowly over the course of milliseconds until strength of the emission lines drop below measurement threshold. Besides the return stroke, other specific lightning processes analyzed include stepped leaders, dart-stepped leaders, and m-components within the continuing current. Stepped and dart-stepped leader spectra consist both of pulsing singly ionized lines and steadily growing neutral lines. Each step within these processes cause increased ionization to occur in the channel upward from the step, demonstrating a pulsing temperature throughout the lifetime of these stepped features. Spectra of the stroke processes, m-components and continuing currents, consist of neutral atmospheric emission lines and copper emission lines which demonstrate the long duration of the channel milliseconds after the initial stages. These spectra indicate long lasting low temperatures which should give insight into temperature profiles where NOx reactions occur. From the spectra, emission identification and lifetime as well as calculations of physical parameters such as temperature, number density, and conductivity about each of these processes give insight into what is physically happening within the channel throughout the lifetime of a stroke.

Modelling postfledging survival and age- specific breeding probabilities in species with delayed maturity: A case study of Roseate Terns at Falkner Island, Connecticut

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spendelow, J.A.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Lebreton, J.D.; Pradel, R.

2002-01-01

We modelled postfledging survival and age-specific breeding probabilities in endangered Roseate Terns (Sterna dougallii) at Falkner Island, Connecticut, USA using capture-recapture data from 1988-1998 of birds ringed as chicks and as adults. While no individuals bred as 2-year-olds during this period, about three-quarters of the young that survived and returned as 3-year-olds nested, and virtually all surviving birds had begun breeding by the time they reached 5 years of age. We found no evidence of temporal variation age of first breeding of birds from different cohorts. There was significant temporal variation in the annual survival of adults and the survival over the typical 3-year maturation period of prebreeding birds, with extremely low values for both groups from the 1991 breeding season. The estimated overwinter survival rate (0.62) for adults from 1991-1992 was about three-quarters the usual rate of about 0.83, but the low survival of fledglings from 1991 resulted in less than 25% of the otherwise expected number of young from that cohort returning as breeding birds; this suggests that fledglings suffered a greater proportional decrease in survival than did adults. The survival estimates of young from 1989 and 1990 show that these cohorts were not negatively influenced by the events that decimated the young from 1991, and the young from 1992 and 1993 had above-average survival estimates. The apparent decrease since 1996 in development of fidelity of new recruits to this site is suspected to be due mainly to nocturnal disturbance and predation of chicks causing low productivity.

Using integrated modeling for generating watershed-scale dynamic flood maps for Hurricane Harvey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saksena, S.; Dey, S.; Merwade, V.; Singhofen, P. J.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Harvey, which was categorized as a 1000-year return period event, produced unprecedented rainfall and flooding in Houston. Although the expected rainfall was forecasted much before the event, there was no way to identify which regions were at higher risk of flooding, the magnitude of flooding, and when the impacts of rainfall would be highest. The inability to predict the location, duration, and depth of flooding created uncertainty over evacuation planning and preparation. This catastrophic event highlighted that the conventional approach to managing flood risk using 100-year static flood inundation maps is inadequate because of its inability to predict flood duration and extents for 500-year or 1000-year return period events in real-time. The purpose of this study is to create models that can dynamically predict the impacts of rainfall and subsequent flooding, so that necessary evacuation and rescue efforts can be planned in advance. This study uses a 2D integrated surface water-groundwater model called ICPR (Interconnected Channel and Pond Routing) to simulate both the hydrology and hydrodynamics for Hurricane Harvey. The methodology involves using the NHD stream network to create a 2D model that incorporates rainfall, land use, vadose zone properties and topography to estimate streamflow and generate dynamic flood depths and extents. The results show that dynamic flood mapping captures the flood hydrodynamics more accurately and is able to predict the magnitude, extent and time of occurrence for extreme events such as Hurricane Harvey. Therefore, integrated modeling has the potential to identify regions that are more susceptible to flooding, which is especially useful for large-scale planning and allocation of resources for protection against future flood risk.

Non-Linearities in Returns to Education in Libya.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arabsheibani, Reza G.; Manfor, Lamine

2001-01-01

Results of study of personal return on investment in years of schooling in Libya indicate that association is nonlinear, unlike the results of similar studies, which found a linear association between level of schooling and earnings. Finds largest marginal return after 8 years of schooling, a nondiploma year. (Contains 17 references.) (PKP)

Return to work after severe traumatic brain injury: a national study with a one-year follow-up of neurocognitive and behavioural outcomes.

PubMed

Sigurdardottir, Solrun; Andelic, Nada; Wehling, Eike; Anke, Audny; Skandsen, Toril; Holthe, Oyvor Oistensen; Manskow, Unn Sollid; Roe, Cecilie

2018-04-18

The objectives were to investigate the frequency of return-to-work (RTW) one year after severe traumatic brain injury (sTBI: Glasgow Coma Scale, GCS 3-8) and to identify which demographic and injury-related characteristics and neurocognitive factors are associated with RTW. This study is part of a prospective national study on sTBI conducted in all four Norwegian Trauma Referral Centres, including patients aged >15 years over a period of three years (n = 378). For the purpose of this study, only pre-employed individuals of working age (16 to 67 years) were investigated for RTW (n = 143), and of these, 104 participants underwent neuropsychological testing. Measures of acute injury severity, neuropsychological composite scores (Memory, Processing Speed, Executive Functions) at the one-year follow-up, and the Behaviour Rating Inventory of Executive Functions (patient- and relative reports) were explored as predictors of RTW. The frequency of RTW was 54.5%. Multivariate logistic regression analyses identified younger age, shorter length of stay in intensive care, better Processing Speed scores, and lower levels of metacognitive difficulties as rated by relatives as significant predictors of RTW. Findings support the importance of neuropsychological measures in predicting long-term RTW and highlight the need to address neurocognitive and behavioural difficulties to improve RTW after sTBI.

Return to Play and Player Performance After Anterior Cruciate Ligament Injury in Elite Australian Rules Football Players

PubMed Central

Liptak, Matthew G.; Angel, Kevin R.

2017-01-01

Background: Australian Rules football is a highly aerobic and anaerobic game that at times requires players to perform cutting or pivoting maneuvers, potentially exposing them to anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury. At present, there are limited data available addressing the impact of ACL injury on return to play and preinjury form after ACL reconstruction. Purpose: To determine the prevalence of ACL injury and the incidence of further ACL injury, and to consider player return to play and return to preinjury form after ACL reconstruction. It was hypothesized that elite-level Australian Football League (AFL) players do not return to preinjury form until, at minimum, 2 years after returning to play. Study Design: Case series; Level of evidence, 4. Methods: A retrospective analysis was undertaken on a cohort of elite AFL players who injured their ACL between 1990 and 2000. Return to play after ACL reconstruction was determined by the mean number of ball disposals, or release of the ball by the hand or foot, at 1, 2, and 3 years after return to play and compared with preinjury form. Associations between player and injury characteristics, method of reconstruction, and outcomes (return to play, preinjury form, and further ACL injury) were examined. Results: During the included seasons, a total of 2723 AFL players were listed. Of these, 131 (4.8%) sustained an ACL injury, with 115 players eligible for inclusion. Of 115 players, 26% did not return to elite competition, while 28% of those who did return experienced further ACL injury. The adjusted mean number of disposals (± standard error of the mean) was significantly lower at 1 year (12.21 ± 0.63; P = .003), 2 years (12.09 ± 0.65; P = .008), and 3 years (11.78 ± 0.77; P = .01) after return to play compared with preinjury (14.23 ± 0.67). On average, players did not return to preinjury form by 3 years (P < .01). Players aged 30 years or older were less likely to return to play compared with younger players (P = .0002), moderate-weight players were more likely to return to play compared with lighter-weight players (P = .007), and there were significantly increased odds of not returning to play if the dominant side was injured (odds ratio, 0.10; 95% CI, 0.03-0.34; P = .0002). Conclusion: On average, AFL players do not return to their preinjury form after ACL injury and reconstruction, a common injury in this sporting population. This along with the high occurrence of reinjury highlights the career-threatening nature of ACL injury for elite AFL players. PMID:28680894

Effect of incubation temperature on post-embryonic survival and growth of steelhead in a natural stream and a hatchery (Study sites: Dworshak Hatchery and North Fork Palouse River; Stocks: Dworshak hatchery; Year classes: 1994 and 1995): Chapter 5

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rubin, Stephen P.; Reisenbichler, Reginald R.; Wetzel, Lisa A.; Stenberg, Karl D.; Baker, Bruce M.; Rubin, Stephen P.; Reisenbichler, Reginald R.; Wetzel, Lisa A.; Hayes, Michael C.

2012-01-01

We tested whether varying incubation temperatures to match development between embryos from different spawning dates affected survival and growth of unfed steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss fry released in a stream and in hatchery ponds. Hatchery steelhead returning to the Clearwater River, Idaho were artificially spawned on two dates separated by a four week interval. Progeny from the early date (ExE, from early males and early females) were incubated in chilled (7°C) water and those from the late date (LxL) in ambient (12°C) water until developmental stage matched. A third group, created by fertilizing eggs from late females with cryopreserved milt from early males (ExL), was included to control for any genetic differences between early and late returning adults. Survival in the stream to 3 and 15 months after release was similar among crosses. Survival in the hatchery to near the end of the standard one year rearing period was similar among crosses for one of two year - classes but different for the other; however, it was difficult to ascribe the differences (ExL>ExE; LxL intermediate but closer to ExE) to incubation temperature differences. We conclude that there was little if any effect of incubation temperature on survival. Length of juveniles of one year - class differed among crosses in the stream and in the hatchery. Length of the other year - class differed among crosses in one pond at the hatchery but not in the other pond or in the stream. When length differed the pattern was always the same: ExE>LxL; ExL intermediate but closer to LxL. We speculate that incubation temperature may have affected growth of juveniles, and in particular that a longer period of incubation in chilled water may have caused fast juvenile growth relative to a shorter incubation period in ambient water.

Soil Carbon Changes in Transitional Grain Crop Production Systems in South Dakota

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodard, H. J.

2004-12-01

Corn-C (Zea Mays L.), soybean-S (Glycine max L.) and spring wheat-W (Triticum aestivum L.) crops were seeded as a component of either a C-S, S-W, or C-S-W crop rotation on silt-loam textured soils ranging from 3.0-5.0% organic matter. Conservation tillage(chisel plow-field cultivator) was applied to half of the plots. The other plots were direct seeded as a no-till (zero-tillage) treatment. Grain yield and surface crop residues were weighed from each treatment plot. Crop residue (stover and straw) was removed from half of the plots. After four years, soil samples were removed at various increments of depth and soil organic carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) was measured. The ranking of crop residue weights occurred by the order corn>>soybean>wheat. Surface residue accumulation was also greatest with residue treatments that were returned to the plots, those rotations in which maize was a component, and those without tillage. Mean soil organic carbon levels in the 0-7.5cm depth decreased from 3.41% to 3.19% (- 0.22%) with conventional tillage (chisel plow/field cultivator) as compared to a decrease from 3.19% to 3.05% (-0.14%) in plots without tillage over a four year period. Organic carbon in the 0-7.5cm depth decreased from 3.21% to 3.01% (- 0.20%) after residue removed as compared to a decrease from 3.39% to 3.23% (-0.17%) in plots without tillage applied after four years. The soil C:N ratio (0-7.5cm) decreased from 10.63 to 10.37 (-0.26 (unitless)) in the tilled plots over a four-year period. Soil C:N ratio at the 0-7.5cm depth decreased from 10.72 to 10.04 (-0.68) in the no-till plots over a four year period. Differences in the soil C:N ratio comparing residue removed and residue returned were similar (-0.51 vs. -0.43 respectively). These soils are highly buffered for organic carbon changes. Many cropping cycles are required to determine how soil carbon storage is significantly impacted by production systems.

Forecasting volatility in gold returns under the GARCH, IGARCH and FIGARCH frameworks: New evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bentes, Sonia R.

2015-11-01

This study employs three volatility models of the GARCH family to examine the volatility behavior of gold returns. Much of the literature on this topic suggests that gold plays a fundamental role as a hedge and safe haven against adverse market conditions, which is particularly relevant in periods of high volatility. This makes understanding gold volatility important for a number of theoretical and empirical applications, namely investment valuation, portfolio selection, risk management, monetary policy-making, futures and option pricing, hedging strategies and value-at-risk (VaR) policies (e.g. Baur and Lucey (2010)). We use daily data from August 2, 1976 to February 6, 2015 and divide the full sample into two periods: the in-sample period (August 2, 1976-October 24, 2008) is used to estimate model coefficients, while the out-of-sample period (October 27, 2008-February 6, 2015) is for forecasting purposes. Specifically, we employ the GARCH(1,1), IGARCH(1,1) and FIGARCH(1, d,1) specifications. The results show that the FIGARCH(1, d,1) is the best model to capture linear dependence in the conditional variance of the gold returns as given by the information criteria. It is also found to be the best model to forecast the volatility of gold returns.

The influence of jumping risk and volatility risk on TAIEX option return

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Wei-Long; Hsieh, Ching-Tang; Huang, Jui-Chan; Wu, Tzu-Jung

2017-06-01

Due to the low profits in recent years environmental, as well as the development of financial engineering that promote the derivatives trading Volume increased. Moreover, the fastest-growing of selected right and the lack of research about option risk. This study aim to explore the relationship between the risk and reward of selected right in Taiwan index. This study focus on the pricing the jump risk of selected right in Taiwan index. Using cross-sectional data as a 12-month study period, using the iteration method to research the effects of abnormal returns, the result shows that different risk factors of fluctuations affected the abnormal returns obviously will cause risk premium as well as the jump risk which consistent with the theory of behavioral finance. However, according to traditional finance theory, contrary to the results of this study consider that higher risks should generate higher-paying as well. According this study, the investors in behavioral finance in modern financial theory is not rational, and the trading behavior is non-random, moreover, the financial market is non-efficiency. Instead, the high risk low reward.

Mammography screening credit card and compliance.

PubMed

Schapira, D V; Kumar, N B; Clark, R A; Yag, C

1992-07-15

Screening for breast cancer using mammography has been shown to be effective in reducing mortality from breast cancer. The authors attempted to determine if use of a wallet-size plastic screening "credit" card would increase participants' compliance for subsequent mammograms when compared with traditional methods of increasing compliance. Two hundred and twenty consecutive women, ages 40-70 years, undergoing their first screening mammography were recruited and assigned randomly to four groups receiving (1) a reminder plastic credit card (2) reminder credit card with written reminder; (3) appointment card; and (4) verbal recommendation. Return rates of the four groups were determined after 15 months. The return rate for subsequent mammograms was significantly higher for participants (72.4%) using the credit card than for participants (39.8%) exposed to traditional encouragement/reminders (P less than 0.0001). The credit card was designed to show the participant's screening anniversary, and the durability of the card may have been a factor in increasing the return rate. The use of reminder credit cards may increase compliance for periodic screening examinations for other cancers and other chronic diseases.

Medical withdrawals from college for mental health reasons and their relation to academic performance.

PubMed

Meilman, P W; Manley, C; Gaylor, M S; Turco, J H

1992-03-01

A collaborative study among the university health service, the dean's office, and the registrar's office examined the academic performance of 77 students who took medical withdrawals for mental health reasons from Dartmouth College during a 3-year period. In 71.4% of the cases, students withdrew from a term in progress; the remainder arranged to withdraw after they had completed a term but before starting a new term. Depression was a major factor in approximately half of the withdrawals. Grade point average improved significantly after return from the withdrawal, with a large jump in individual term averages occurring between the terms immediately preceding and immediately following return. We found no significant difference between the number of students who experienced disciplinary trouble before withdrawal and those who were disciplined afterward. Students who were depressed at the time of withdrawal did not fare as well academically upon return as those students who had not been depressed. The data suggest that procedures for handling mental health withdrawals and readmission are important ways in which the campus counseling center can support the university's academic mission.

Hidden costs of antiretroviral treatment: the public health efficiency of drug packaging.

PubMed

Andreu-Crespo, Àngels; Llibre, Josep M; Cardona-Peitx, Glòria; Sala-Piñol, Ferran; Clotet, Bonaventura; Bonafont-Pujol, Xavier

2015-01-01

While the overall percentage of unused antiretroviral medicines returned to the hospital pharmacy is low, their cost is quite high. Adverse events, treatment failure, pharmacokinetic interactions, pregnancy, or treatment simplification are common reasons for unplanned treatment changes. Socially inefficient antiretroviral packages prevent the reuse of drugs returned to the hospital pharmacy. We defined antiretroviral package categories based on the excellence of drug packaging and analyzed the number of pills and costs of drugs returned during a period of 1 year in a hospital-based HIV unit attending to 2,413 treated individuals. A total of 6,090 pills (34% of all returned antiretrovirals) - with a cost of 47,139.91 € - would be totally lost, mainly due to being packed up in the lowest efficiency packages. Newer treatments are packaged in low-excellence categories of packages, thus favoring the maintenance of these hidden costs in the near future. Therefore, costs of this low-efficiency drug packaging, where medication packages are started but not completed, in high-cost medications are substantial and should be properly addressed. Any improvement in the packaging by the manufacturer, and favoring the choice of drugs supplied through efficient packages (when efficacy, toxicity, and convenience are similar), should minimize the treatment expenditures paid by national health budgets.

Hidden costs of antiretroviral treatment: the public health efficiency of drug packaging

PubMed Central

Andreu-Crespo, Àngels; Llibre, Josep M; Cardona-Peitx, Glòria; Sala-Piñol, Ferran; Clotet, Bonaventura; Bonafont-Pujol, Xavier

2015-01-01

While the overall percentage of unused antiretroviral medicines returned to the hospital pharmacy is low, their cost is quite high. Adverse events, treatment failure, pharmacokinetic interactions, pregnancy, or treatment simplification are common reasons for unplanned treatment changes. Socially inefficient antiretroviral packages prevent the reuse of drugs returned to the hospital pharmacy. We defined antiretroviral package categories based on the excellence of drug packaging and analyzed the number of pills and costs of drugs returned during a period of 1 year in a hospital-based HIV unit attending to 2,413 treated individuals. A total of 6,090 pills (34% of all returned antiretrovirals) – with a cost of 47,139.91€ – would be totally lost, mainly due to being packed up in the lowest efficiency packages. Newer treatments are packaged in low-excellence categories of packages, thus favoring the maintenance of these hidden costs in the near future. Therefore, costs of this low-efficiency drug packaging, where medication packages are started but not completed, in high-cost medications are substantial and should be properly addressed. Any improvement in the packaging by the manufacturer, and favoring the choice of drugs supplied through efficient packages (when efficacy, toxicity, and convenience are similar), should minimize the treatment expenditures paid by national health budgets. PMID:26273190

Volatility modeling for IDR exchange rate through APARCH model with student-t distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nugroho, Didit Budi; Susanto, Bambang

2017-08-01

The aim of this study is to empirically investigate the performance of APARCH(1,1) volatility model with the Student-t error distribution on five foreign currency selling rates to Indonesian rupiah (IDR), including the Swiss franc (CHF), the Euro (EUR), the British pound (GBP), Japanese yen (JPY), and the US dollar (USD). Six years daily closing rates over the period of January 2010 to December 2016 for a total number of 1722 observations have analysed. The Bayesian inference using the efficient independence chain Metropolis-Hastings and adaptive random walk Metropolis methods in the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme has been applied to estimate the parameters of model. According to the DIC criterion, this study has found that the APARCH(1,1) model under Student-t distribution is a better fit than the model under normal distribution for any observed rate return series. The 95% highest posterior density interval suggested the APARCH models to model the IDR/JPY and IDR/USD volatilities. In particular, the IDR/JPY and IDR/USD data, respectively, have significant negative and positive leverage effect in the rate returns. Meanwhile, the optimal power coefficient of volatility has been found to be statistically different from 2 in adopting all rate return series, save the IDR/EUR rate return series.

Navigational challenges in the oceanic migrations of leatherback sea turtles

PubMed Central

Sale, Alessandro; Luschi, Paolo

2009-01-01

The open-sea movements of marine animals are affected by the drifting action of currents that, if not compensated for, can produce non-negligible deviations from the correct route towards a given target. Marine turtles are paradigmatic skilful oceanic navigators that are able to reach remote goals at the end of long-distance migrations, apparently overcoming current drift effects. Particularly relevant is the case of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea), which spend entire years in the ocean, wandering in search of planktonic prey. Recent analyses have revealed how the movements of satellite-tracked leatherbacks in the Indian, Atlantic and Pacific Oceans are strongly dependent on the oceanic currents, up to the point that turtles are often passively transported over long distances. However, leatherbacks are known to return to specific areas to breed every 2–3 years, thus finding their way back home after long periods in the oceanic environment. Here we examine the navigational consequences of the leatherbacks' close association with currents and discuss how the combined reliance on mechanisms of map-based navigation and local orientation cues close to the target may allow leatherbacks to accomplish the difficult task of returning to specific sites after years spent wandering in a moving medium. PMID:19625321

A Fuzzy Control System for Reducing Urban Runoff by a Stormwater Storage Tank

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, P.; Cai, Y.; Wang, J.

2017-12-01

Stormwater storage tank (SST) is a popular low impact development technology for reducing stormwater runoff in the construction of sponge city. Most researches on SST were mainly the design, pollutants removal effect, and operation assessment. While there were few researches on the automatic control of SST for reducing peak flow. In this paper, fuzzy control was introduced into the peak control of SST to improve the efficiency of reducing stormawter runoff. Firstly, the design of SST was investigated. A catchment area and return period were assumed, a SST model was manufactured, and then the storage capacity of the SST was verified. Secondly, the control parameters of the SST based on reducing stormwater runoff was analyzed, and a schematic diagram of real-time control (RTC) system based on peak control SST was established. Finally, fuzzy control system of a double input (flow and water level) and double output (inlet and outlet valve) was designed. The results showed that 1) under the different return periods (one year, three years, five years), the SST had the effect of delayed peak control and storage by increasing the detention time, 2) rainfall, pipeline flow, the influent time and the water level in the SST could be used as RTC parameters, and 3) the response curves of flow velocity and water level fluctuated very little and reached equilibrium in a short time. The combination of online monitoring and fuzzy control was feasible to control the SST automatically. This paper provides a theoretical reference for reducing stormwater runoff and improving the operation efficiency of SST.

Lottery ticket was more effective than a prize draw in increasing questionnaire response among cancer survivors.

PubMed

Drummond, Frances J; O'Leary, Eamonn; Sharp, Linda

2015-07-01

Compare the effect of financial incentives on response to a cancer survivors' postal questionnaire. Prostate cancer survivors in Ireland, 1.5-18 years after diagnosis, were randomized to the (1) "lottery" arm [a € 1 lottery scratch card sent with the questionnaire (n = 2,413)] or (2) "prize" arm [entry into a draw on return of a completed questionnaire (n = 2,407)]. Impact of interventions on response overall and by survival period ("short term": < 5 years after diagnosis; "long term": ≥ 5 years after diagnosis) was compared as was cost-effectiveness. Adjusted response rate was 54.4%. Response was higher among younger men (P < 0.001) and those with earlier stage disease (P = 0.002). A modest 2.6% higher response rate was observed in the lottery compared with the prize arm [multivariate relative risk (RR) = 1.06; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00, 1.11]. When stratified by survival period, higher response in the lottery arm was only observed among long-term survivors (multivariate RR = 1.10; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.19; short-term survivors: RR = 1.01; 95% CI: 0.94, 1.09). Costs per completed questionnaire were € 4.54 and € 3.57 for the lottery and prize arms, respectively. Compared with the prize arm, cost per additional questionnaire returned in the lottery arm was € 25.65. Although more expensive, to optimize response to postal questionnaires among cancer survivors, researchers might consider inclusion of a lottery scratch card. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Financial effects of pharmaceutical price regulation on R&D spending by EU versus US firms.

PubMed

Golec, Joseph; Vernon, John A

2010-01-01

EU countries closely regulate pharmaceutical prices, whereas the US does not. This paper shows how price constraints affect the profitability, stock returns and R&D spending of EU and US firms. Compared with EU firms, US firms are more profitable, earn higher stock returns and spend more on R&D. We tested the relationship between price regulation and R&D spending, and estimated the costs of tight EU price regulation. Although results show that EU consumers enjoyed much lower pharmaceutical price inflation, we estimated that price controls cost EU firms 46 fewer new medicines and 1680 fewer research jobs during our 19-year sample period. Had the US used controls similar to those used in the EU, we estimate it would have led to 117 fewer new medicines and 4368 fewer research jobs in the US.

Sleep Detriments Associated With Quick Returns in Rotating Shift Work: A Diary Study.

PubMed

Vedaa, Øystein; Mørland, Erik; Larsen, Marit; Harris, Anette; Erevik, Eilin; Sivertsen, Børge; Bjorvatn, Bjørn; Waage, Siri; Pallesen, Ståle

2017-06-01

We aimed to compared sleep characteristics associated with quick returns (QRs, <11 hours between shift intervals) with those associated with other common shift transitions. Sixty-seven nurses completed a 2-week work and sleep diary (94.0% female, mean age 47.7 years). A multilevel fixed effects model was used to examine the sleep in QRs compared with two consecutive night shifts, two consecutive evening shifts, and two consecutive day shifts, respectively. None of the other shift transitions studied encumbered as many detriments as QRs, which included short sleep duration (5.6 hours), slightly prolonged sleep onset latency, more abrupt ending of main sleep period, increased sleepiness, and higher level of perceived stress on the following shift. The study emphasizes the need for sufficient time for rest and recuperation between shifts.

75 FR 75439 - Specified Tax Return Preparers Required To File Individual Income Tax Returns Using Magnetic Media

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-03

... 1545-BJ52 Specified Tax Return Preparers Required To File Individual Income Tax Returns Using Magnetic... for ``specified tax return preparers,'' generally tax return preparers who reasonably expect to file more than 10 individual income tax returns in a calendar year, to file individual income tax returns...

Race, socioeconomic status, and return migration to New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina

PubMed Central

Sastry, Narayan; VanLandingham, Mark

2010-01-01

Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans on the 29th of August 2005 and displaced virtually the entire population of the city. Soon after, observers predicted the city would become whiter and wealthier as a result of selective return migration, although challenges related to sampling and data collection in a post-disaster environment have hampered evaluation of these hypotheses. In this article, we investigate return to the city by displaced residents over a period of approximately 14 months following the storm, describing overall return rates and examining differences in return rates by race and socioeconomic status. We use unique data from a representative sample of pre-Katrina New Orleans residents collected in the Displaced New Orleans Residents Pilot Survey. We find that black residents returned to the city at a much slower pace than white residents even after controlling for socioeconomic status and demographic characteristics. However, the racial disparity disappears after controlling for housing damage. We conclude that blacks tended to live in areas that experienced greater flooding and hence suffered more severe housing damage which, in turn, led to their delayed return to the city. The full-scale survey of displaced residents being fielded in 2009–2010 will show whether the repopulation of the city was selective over a longer period. PMID:20440381

Preemptive Renal Transplantation-The Best Treatment Option for Terminal Chronic Renal Failure.

PubMed

Arze Aimaretti, L; Arze, S

2016-03-01

Renal transplantation is the best therapeutic option for end-stage chronic renal disease. Assuming that it is more advisable if performed early, we aimed to show the clinical, social, and economic advantages in 70% of our patients who were dialyzed only for a short period. For this purpose, we retrospectively collected data over 28 years in 142 kidney transplants performed in patients with <6 weeks on dialysis. 66% of our patients were 30-60 years old; 98% of the patients had living donors. At transplantation, 64% of our patients had no public support; however, 64% of them returned to work and got health insurance 2 months later. Full rehabilitation was achieved in all cases, including integration to the family, return to full-time work, school and university, sports, and reproduction. Immunosuppression consisted of 3 drugs, including steroids, cyclosporine, and azathioprine or mycophenolate. The cost in the 1st year, including patient and donor evaluation, surgery, immunosuppression, and follow-up, was $13,300 USD versus $22,320 for hemodialysis. We conclude that preemptive renal transplantation with <6 weeks on dialysis is the best therapeutic option for end-stage renal failure, especially in developing countries such as Bolivia, where until last year, full public support for renal replacement therapy was unavailable. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dynamic structure of stock communities: a comparative study between stock returns and turnover rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Li-Ling; Jiang, Xiong-Fei; Li, Sai-Ping; Zhong, Li-Xin; Ren, Fei

2017-07-01

The detection of community structure in stock market is of theoretical and practical significance for the study of financial dynamics and portfolio risk estimation. We here study the community structures in Chinese stock markets from the aspects of both price returns and turnover rates, by using a combination of the PMFG and infomap methods based on a distance matrix. An empirical study using the overall data set shows that for both returns and turnover rates the largest communities are composed of specific industrial or conceptional sectors and the correlation inside a sector is generally larger than the correlation between different sectors. However, the community structure for turnover rates is more complex than that for returns, which indicates that the interactions between stocks revealed by turnover rates may contain more information. This conclusion is further confirmed by the analysis of the changes in the dynamics of community structures over five sub-periods. Sectors like banks, real estate, health care and New Shanghai take turns to comprise a few of the largest communities in different sub-periods, and more interestingly several specific sectors appear in the communities with different rank orders for returns and turnover rates even in the same sub-period. To better understand their differences, a comparison between the evolution of the returns and turnover rates of the stocks from these sectors is conducted. We find that stock prices only had large changes around important events while turnover rates surged after each of these events relevant to specific sectors, which shows strong evidence that the turnover rates are more susceptible to exogenous shocks than returns and its measurement for community detection may contain more useful information about market structure.

The dynamics of evolving beliefs, concerns emotions, and behavioral avoidance following 9/11: a longitudinal analysis of representative archival samples.

PubMed

McArdle, Shelly C; Rosoff, Heather; John, Richard S

2012-04-01

September 11 created a natural experiment that enables us to track the psychological effects of a large-scale terror event over time. The archival data came from 8,070 participants of 10 ABC and CBS News polls collected from September 2001 until September 2006. Six questions investigated emotional, behavioral, and cognitive responses to the events of September 11 over a five-year period. We found that heightened responses after September 11 dissipated and reached a plateau at various points in time over a five-year period. We also found that emotional, cognitive, and behavioral reactions were moderated by age, sex, political affiliation, and proximity to the attack. Both emotional and behavioral responses returned to a normal state after one year, whereas cognitively-based perceptions of risk were still diminishing as late as September 2006. These results provide insight into how individuals will perceive and respond to future similar attacks. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Energy demands during a judo match and recovery.

PubMed

Degoutte, F; Jouanel, P; Filaire, E

2003-06-01

To assess energy demand during a judo match and the kinetics of recovery by measuring the metabolites of the oxypurine cascade, lipolytic activity, and glycolytic pathway. Venous blood samples were taken from 16 national judoists (mean (SEM) age 18.4 (1.6) years), before (T(1)) and three minutes (T(2)), one hour (T(3)), and 24 hours (T(4)) after a match. A seven day diet record was used to evaluate nutrient intake. Nutrient analysis indicated that these athletes followed a low carbohydrate diet. Plasma lactate concentration had increased to 12.3 (1.8) mmol/l at the end of the match. An increase in the levels of extracellular markers of muscle adenine nucleotide catabolism, urea, and creatinine was observed at T(2), while uric acid levels remained unchanged. High concentrations of urea persisted for 24 hours during the recovery period. Ammonia, hypoxanthine, xanthine, and creatinine returned to control levels within the 24 hour recovery period. Uric acid concentrations rose from T(3) and had not returned to baseline 24 hours after the match. The levels of triglycerides, glycerol, and free fatty acids had increased significantly (p<0.05) after the match (T(2)) but returned to baseline values within 24 hours. Concentrations of high density lipoprotein cholesterol and total cholesterol were significantly increased after the match. These results show that a judo match induces both protein and lipid metabolism. Carbohydrate availability, training adaptation, and metabolic stress may explain the requirement for these types of metabolism.

Psychological profile and work status of a predominantly Hispanic worker's compensation population with chronic limb pain.

PubMed

Monsivais, Jose J; Robinson, Kris

2008-12-01

The purposes of this study were to describe the psychosocial profile and to measure function (posttreatment work status) after surgical and non-surgical treatment in a predominantly Hispanic worker's compensation population with chronic limb pain. We conducted an archival review of records from 91 patients treated for neuropathic pain in a specialty clinic over a 10-year period who had extreme difficulty accepting or managing pain. Medical records from individuals with proven nerve dysfunction experiencing pain >3 months and whose record contained a full psychological evaluation were included. All patients received patient-centered care, a prescription to return to work, periodic pain assessment, and clinical evaluation of sensory and motor function plus pharmacologic pain management. Surgery was determined by the degree of sensory-motor abnormalities in the absence of untreated psychological distress regardless of pain level or worker's compensation status. The majority of patients returned to work after treatment of nerve injury. No differences were noted between surgical/non-surgical treatment groups on initial pain level (p = 0.2), litigation status (p > 0.5), and posttreatment work status (p > 0.05). However, individuals expecting surgery also expected total relief of pain with surgical intervention. Psychosocial assessment, support, and adequate pain treatment seem to mediate the ability of an individual with chronic limb pain to return to work regardless of surgical/non-surgical treatment. Patients' expectations of surgery may be unrealistic and are best addressed prior to treatment.

Psychological Profile and Work Status of a Predominantly Hispanic Worker’s Compensation Population With Chronic Limb Pain

PubMed Central

Monsivais, Jose J.

2008-01-01

The purposes of this study were to describe the psychosocial profile and to measure function (posttreatment work status) after surgical and non-surgical treatment in a predominantly Hispanic worker’s compensation population with chronic limb pain. We conducted an archival review of records from 91 patients treated for neuropathic pain in a specialty clinic over a 10-year period who had extreme difficulty accepting or managing pain. Medical records from individuals with proven nerve dysfunction experiencing pain >3 months and whose record contained a full psychological evaluation were included. All patients received patient-centered care, a prescription to return to work, periodic pain assessment, and clinical evaluation of sensory and motor function plus pharmacologic pain management. Surgery was determined by the degree of sensory-motor abnormalities in the absence of untreated psychological distress regardless of pain level or worker’s compensation status. The majority of patients returned to work after treatment of nerve injury. No differences were noted between surgical/non-surgical treatment groups on initial pain level (p = 0.2), litigation status (p > 0.5), and posttreatment work status (p > 0.05). However, individuals expecting surgery also expected total relief of pain with surgical intervention. Psychosocial assessment, support, and adequate pain treatment seem to mediate the ability of an individual with chronic limb pain to return to work regardless of surgical/non-surgical treatment. Patients’ expectations of surgery may be unrealistic and are best addressed prior to treatment. PMID:18780006

Does voltage predict return to work and neuropsychiatric sequelae following electrical burn injury?

PubMed

Chudasama, Shruti; Goverman, Jeremy; Donaldson, Jeffrey H; van Aalst, John; Cairns, Bruce A; Hultman, Charles Scott

2010-05-01

Voltage has historically guided the acute management and long-term prognosis of physical morbidity in electrical injury patients; however, few large studies exist that include neuropsychiatric morbidity in final outcome analysis. This review compares high (>1000 V) to low (<1000 V) voltage injuries, focusing on return to work and neuropsychiatric sequelae following electrical burn injury. Patients with electrical injuries admitted to the University of North Carolina Jaycee Burn Center between 2000 and 2005 were prospectively entered into a trauma database, then retrospectively reviewed. Patients were divided into 4 cohorts: high voltage (>1000 V), low voltage (<1000 V), flash arc, and lightning. Demographics, hospital course, and follow-up were recorded to determine physical and neuropsychiatric morbidity. Differences among cohorts were tested for statistical significance. Over 5 years, 2548 patients were admitted to the burn center, including 115 patients with electrical injuries. There were 110 males and 5 females, with a mean age of 35 years (range, 0.75-65 years). The cause of the electrical injury was high voltage in 60 cases, low voltage in 25 cases, flash arc in 29 cases and lightning in 1 case. The mean total body surface area burn was 8% (range, 0%-52%). The etiology was work-related electrical injury in 85 patients. Mean follow-up period was 352 days with 13 (11%) patients lost to follow-up. Patients with high voltage injuries had significantly larger total body surface area burn, longer ICU stays, longer hospitalizations, and significantly higher rates of fasciotomy, amputation, nerve decompression and outpatient reconstruction, with 4 cases of renal failure and 2 deaths. In spite of these differences, high and low voltage groups experienced similar rates of neuropsychiatric sequelae, limited return to work and delays in return to work. Final impairment ratings for the high and low voltage groups were 17.5% and 5.3%, respectively. Electrical injuries often incur severe morbidity despite relatively small burn size and/or low voltage. When comparing high and low voltage injuries, similarities in endpoints such as neuropsychiatric sequelae, the need for late reconstruction, and failure to return to work challenge previous notions that voltage predicts outcome.

[The geriatric perioperative unit, a high performance care department for elderly surgical patients].

PubMed

Papas, Anne; Caillard, Laurence; Nion, Nathalie

2011-01-01

For over a year Professor Marc Verny's geriatric department at Pitié-Salpêtrière hospital in Paris has had ten beds set aside for the perioperative care of elderly people. This geriatric perioperative unit (UPOG) offers patients the skills of a multidisciplinary team trained in the specificities of caring for elderly patients often suffering from polypathology. The team works closely together around a common goal: the rapid return of the patient's autonomy during the postoperative period, crucial for the future of elderly people. So far UPOG's results have been very positive, as more than 90% of patients regain their autonomy after a short and uncomplicated period of postoperative care.

Return to work after spinal cord injury: factors related to time to first job.

PubMed

Ramakrishnan, K; Mazlan, M; Julia, P E; Abdul Latif, L

2011-08-01

Cross-sectional survey. To investigate factors related to length of time between spinal cord injury (SCI) onset and start of first post-injury employment. Persons living with SCI in the community who are members of a disability support organization. Participants were randomly selected from the membership list of a non-governmental voluntary organization. They met the following four criteria: traumatic SCI, minimum of 15 years of age at the time of survey, a minimum of 2 years after SCI and had been employed for some time since SCI. The main outcome measure was time (in years) from injury onset to beginning first post-injury job. Participants averaged 4.9 years (s.d. 5.1) from the time of SCI to their first post-injury job, with a range of 3 months to 20 years. Fifty percent of the participants who eventually returned to work had done so by 4 years. Return to pre-injury employer and employment were associated with early return, whereas having less years in education and being older at the time of injury were associated with longer time to return to work. Rehabilitation team need to consider return to employment as a realistic goal even many years after SCI. Perhaps a focus on returning more people to their pre-injury employer and employment with added focus and input from rehabilitation team for those with lower education status and older age at time of injury might expedite the process of reintegration.

Starting Out: A time-lagged study of new graduate nurses' transition to practice.

PubMed

Laschinger, Heather K Spence; Cummings, Greta; Leiter, Michael; Wong, Carol; MacPhee, Maura; Ritchie, Judith; Wolff, Angela; Regan, Sandra; Rhéaume-Brüning, Ann; Jeffs, Lianne; Young-Ritchie, Carol; Grinspun, Doris; Gurnham, Mary Ellen; Foster, Barbara; Huckstep, Sherri; Ruffolo, Maurio; Shamian, Judith; Burkoski, Vanessa; Wood, Kevin; Read, Emily

2016-05-01

As the nursing profession ages, new graduate nurses are an invaluable health human resource. The purpose of this study was to investigate factors influencing new graduate nurses' successful transition to their full professional role in Canadian hospital settings and to determine predictors of job and career satisfaction and turnover intentions over a one-year time period in their early employment. A national two-wave survey of new graduate nurses across Canada. A random sample of 3906 Registered Nurses with less than 3 years of experience currently working in direct patient care was obtained from the provincial registry databases across Canada. At Time 1, 1020 of 3743 eligible nurses returned completed questionnaires (usable response rate=27.3%). One year later, Time 1 respondents were mailed a follow-up survey; 406 returned a completed questionnaire (response rate=39.8%). Surveys containing standardized questionnaires were mailed to participants' home address. Descriptive statistics, correlations, and hierarchical linear regression analyses were conducted using SPSS software. Overall, new graduate nurses were positive about their experiences and committed to nursing. However, over half of new nurses in the first year of practice reported high levels of emotional exhaustion and many witnessed or experienced incivility (24-42%) at work. Findings from hierarchical linear regression analyses revealed that situational and personal factors explained significant amounts of variance in new graduate nurses' job and career satisfaction and turnover intentions. Cynicism was a significant predictor of all four outcomes one year later, while Psycap predicted job and career satisfaction and career turnover intentions. Results provide a look into the worklife experiences of Canadian new graduate nurses over a one-year time period and identify factors that influence their job-related outcomes. These findings show that working conditions for new graduate nurses are generally positive and stable over time, although workplace mistreatment is an issue to be addressed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dispersal and survival of a polygynandrous passerine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Craig, Heather R.; Kendall, Steve J.; Wild, Teri C.; Powell, Abby N.

2015-01-01

Although sex biases in survival and dispersal are thought to be linked to avian mating systems, little is known about these demographic patterns in less common mating strategies such as polygynandry. We investigated breeding-site fidelity, natal philopatry, and apparent survival of the polygynandrous Smith's Longspur (Calcarius pictus) over a 7-yr period at 2 areas in Alaska's Brooks Range. We used capture–recapture histories of 243 color-banded adults and 431 juveniles to estimate annual survival and determined dispersal patterns from 34 adults that were found breeding within the study areas over multiple years. Most adults (88%) returned to nest in the same breeding neighborhood as in previous years; mean dispersal distance was 300.9 ± 74.2 m and did not differ between sexes. Juveniles exhibited low natal philopatry; only 4% of banded hatch-year birds were resighted as adults during subsequent years. Those that did return dispersed, on average, 1,674.4 ± 465.8 m from their natal nests (n = 6). Model-averaged survival estimates indicated that annual survival of adult females (50–58%) was only slightly lower than that of males (60–63%); juvenile survival was 41% but was paired with a low (13%) encounter probability. We attribute the lack of sex bias in adult dispersal to this species' polygynandrous mating strategy. Within this system, there are multiple mates within a breeding neighborhood. We argue that natural selection may favor females that remain on the same, familiar breeding site, because they do not have to disperse to a new area to find a suitable mate. Dispersal among breeding populations most likely occurs by juveniles returning as adults. Our findings support hypotheses that suggest a relationship between dispersal and mating strategy and provide some of the first insight into the demographic patterns of a polygynandrous passerine.

Has time come for a re-assessment of spa therapy? The NAIADE survey in Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coccheri, S.; Gasbarrini, G.; Valenti, M.; Nappi, G.; di Orio, F.

2008-01-01

Goal of this study was to investigate whether appropriately applied spa therapy in several indications could be associated with a subsequent fall in the need for costly health services and missed working days due to sick-leave. The Naiade project was a multicenter observational, longitudinal, questionnaire-based study comparing an “entry” inquiry addressed to patients before an entry thermal cycle, and a “return” inquiry after 1 year. Routine statistical methods were used for comparisons. The study was carried out in 297 of the 340 certified Italian spa centers. Inquiries were managed by the spa doctor(s), with the collaboration of family doctors, and when necessary, hospitals, other health services, labour offices and employers. After exclusion of regular customers and of patients with acute disease phases or severe health conditions, 39,943 patients divided into eight diseases subgroups (rheumatic, respiratory, dermatologic, gynaecologic, otorhynologic, urinary, vascular and gastroenteric) underwent entry inquiry and appropriate spa treatment. Patients who returned for treatment after 1 year (“index year”) were 23,680 (59.2%) and received return inquiry. Outcomes considered were: frequency and duration of hospitalisation periods; missed working days; regular use of disease-specific drugs; and resort to “non-spa” rehabilitation therapies. The data collected at return inquiry were compared with those of entry inquiry. All the considered outcomes appeared to be significantly reduced in the index year in seven of the eight disease subgroups in comparison with the previous year. In conclusion, disease-appropriate spa treatments were followed by a reduction in the need of subsequent health interventions in most disease subgroups. The health promoting value of spa treatments should therefore undergo more rigorous assessment with randomised controlled studies.

Random Matrix Theory Approach to Indonesia Energy Portfolio Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahardhika, Alifian; Purqon, Acep

2017-07-01

In a few years, Indonesia experienced difficulties in maintaining energy security, the problem is the decline in oil production from 1.6 million barrels per day to 861 thousand barrels per day in 2012. However, there is a difference condition in 2015 until the third week in 2016, world oil prices actually fell at the lowest price level since last 12 years. The decline in oil prices due to oversupply of oil by oil-producing countries of the world due to the instability of the world economy. Wave of layoffs in Indonesia is a response to the decline in oil prices, this led to the energy and mines portfolios Indonesia feared would not be more advantageous than the portfolio in other countries. In this research, portfolio analysis will be done on energy and mining in Indonesia by using stock price data of energy and mines in the period 26 November 2010 until April 1, 2016. It was found that the results have a wide effect of the market potential is high in the determination of the return on the portfolio energy and mines. Later, it was found that there are eight of the thirty stocks in the energy and mining portfolio of Indonesia which have a high probability of return relative to the average return of stocks in a portfolio of energy and mines.

Mapping the Global Future: Report of the National Intelligence Council’s 2020 Project

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-12-01

Oxford, England (July 2004) Women in 2020—Washington, DC (August 2004) Business Leader Roundtable Discussion—CIA Headquarters (September 2004) India...a short period of time. • Increased flexibility in the workplace , such as encouraging young women to take a few years off to start families in return...Status of Women in 2020 38 Risks to Chinese Economic Growth 52 India vs. China: Long-Term Prospects 53 Asia: The Cockpit for Global Change? 55 Global

Classification and evaluation of the documentary-recorded storm events in the Annals of the Choson Dynasty (1392-1910), Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoo, Chulsang; Park, Minkyu; Kim, Hyeon Jun; Choi, Juhee; Sin, Jiye; Jun, Changhyun

2015-01-01

In this study, the analysis of documentary records on the storm events in the Annals of the Choson Dynasty, covering the entire period of 519 years from 1392 to 1910, was carried out. By applying various key words related to storm events, a total of 556 documentary records could be identified. The main objective of this study was to develop rules of classification for the documentary records on the storm events in the Annals of the Choson Dynasty. The results were also compared with the rainfall data of the traditional Korean rain gauge, named Chukwooki, which are available from 1777 to 1910 (about 130 years). The analysis is organized as follows. First, the frequency of the documents, their length, comments about the size of the inundated area, the number of casualties, the number of property losses, and the size of the countermeasures, etc. were considered to determine the magnitude of the events. To this end, rules of classification of the storm events are developed. Cases in which the word 'disaster' was used along with detailed information about the casualties and property damages, were classified as high-level storm events. The high-level storm events were additionally sub-categorized into catastrophic, extreme, and severe events. Second, by applying the developed rules of classification, a total of 326 events were identified as high-level storm events during the 519 years of the Choson Dynasty. Among these high-level storm events, only 19 events were then classified as the catastrophic ones, 106 events as the extreme ones, and 201 events as the severe ones. The mean return period of these storm events was found to be about 30 years for the catastrophic events, 5 years for the extreme events, and 2-3 years for the severe events. Third, the classification results were verified considering the records of the traditional Korean rain gauge; it was found that the catastrophic events are strongly distinguished from other events with a mean total rainfall and a storm duration equal to 439.8 mm and 49.3 h, respectively. The return period of these catastrophic events was also estimated to be in the range 100-500 years.

Are Returns to Education on the Decline in Venezuela and Does Mission Sucre Have a Role to Play?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gonzalez, Naihobe; Oyelere, Ruth Uwaifo

2011-01-01

Anecdotal evidence points to a falling standard of living for the educated in Venezuela. During this same period, President Hugo Chavez implemented several education reforms. We focus on a major university education reform known as Mission Sucre and its potential impact on returns to university education. First, we show that returns to education…

26 CFR 1.6694-4 - Extension of period of collection when tax return preparer pays 15 percent of a penalty for...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... TREASURY (CONTINUED) INCOME TAX (CONTINUED) INCOME TAXES Additions to the Tax, Additional Amounts, and... assessment, the IRS will also send, before assessment of either penalty, a 30-day letter to the tax return preparer notifying him of the proposed penalty or penalties and offering an opportunity to the tax return...

Parents Returning to Work: Evaluation of Grant Recipient Outcomes 2004-05, 2005-06

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ferrier, Fran; Kellock, Peter; Burke, Gerald

2007-01-01

The Parents Returning to Work Program (PRTW) is a Victorian government initiative which commenced in 2003. It provides grants to assist eligible parents who wish to return to paid employment after a period of caring for children to participate in training that will increase their work skills and job prospects. This evaluation aimed to review the…

Treatment of rhinophyma with the Versajet™ Hydrosurgery System and autologous cell suspension (ReCELL®): A case report.

PubMed

K, Yıldız; B R, Kayan; T, Dulgeroglu; E, Guneren

2018-04-01

This is a case report of a 63-year-old male patient who presented with rhinophyma of 17 years duration. Several medical treatments were applied previously, with no response or poor improvement. We present our experience by combining the Versajet™ Hydrosurgery System and ReCELL ® in a heavy smoker patient, which led to a good aesthetic outcome. With the combined technique, we did not encounter any difficulties either within the operation or in the follow-up period. We obtained less complications and faster wound healing, which in return led to higher patient satisfaction.

Multivariate Models of Adult Pacific Salmon Returns

PubMed Central

Burke, Brian J.; Peterson, William T.; Beckman, Brian R.; Morgan, Cheryl; Daly, Elizabeth A.; Litz, Marisa

2013-01-01

Most modeling and statistical approaches encourage simplicity, yet ecological processes are often complex, as they are influenced by numerous dynamic environmental and biological factors. Pacific salmon abundance has been highly variable over the last few decades and most forecasting models have proven inadequate, primarily because of a lack of understanding of the processes affecting variability in survival. Better methods and data for predicting the abundance of returning adults are therefore required to effectively manage the species. We combined 31 distinct indicators of the marine environment collected over an 11-year period into a multivariate analysis to summarize and predict adult spring Chinook salmon returns to the Columbia River in 2012. In addition to forecasts, this tool quantifies the strength of the relationship between various ecological indicators and salmon returns, allowing interpretation of ecosystem processes. The relative importance of indicators varied, but a few trends emerged. Adult returns of spring Chinook salmon were best described using indicators of bottom-up ecological processes such as composition and abundance of zooplankton and fish prey as well as measures of individual fish, such as growth and condition. Local indicators of temperature or coastal upwelling did not contribute as much as large-scale indicators of temperature variability, matching the spatial scale over which salmon spend the majority of their ocean residence. Results suggest that effective management of Pacific salmon requires multiple types of data and that no single indicator can represent the complex early-ocean ecology of salmon. PMID:23326586

Hamstring Strain Injuries: Recommendations for Diagnosis, Rehabilitation and Injury Prevention

PubMed Central

Heiderscheit, Bryan C.; Sherry, Marc A.; Silder, Amy; Chumanov, Elizabeth S.; Thelen, Darryl G.

2010-01-01

Synopsis Hamstring strain injuries remain a challenge for both athletes and clinicians given the high incidence rate, slow healing, and persistent symptoms. Moreover, nearly one-third of these injuries recur within the first year following a return to sport, with subsequent injuries often being more severe than the original. This high reinjury rate suggests that commonly utilized rehabilitation programs may be inadequate at resolving possible muscular weakness, reduced tissue extensibility, and/or altered movement patterns associated with the injury. Further, the traditional criteria used to determine the readiness of the athlete to return to sport may be insensitive to these persistent deficits, resulting in a premature return. There is mounting evidence that the risk of reinjury can be minimized by utilizing rehabilitation strategies that incorporate neuromuscular control exercises and eccentric strength training, combined with objective measures to assess musculotendon recovery and readiness to return to sport. In this paper, we first describe the diagnostic examination of an acute hamstring strain injury, including discussion of the value of determining injury location in estimating the duration of the convalescent period. Based on the current available evidence, we then propose a clinical guide for the rehabilitation of acute hamstring injuries including specific criteria for treatment progression and return to sport. Finally, we describe directions for future research including injury-specific rehabilitation programs, objective measures to assess reinjury risk, and strategies to prevent injury occurrence. Level of evidence: Diagnosis/therapy, level 5. PMID:20118524

Return to Play and Patient Satisfaction After ACL Reconstruction: Study with Minimum 2-Year Follow-up.

PubMed

Nwachukwu, Benedict U; Voleti, Pramod B; Berkanish, Patricia; Chang, Brenda; Cohn, Matthew R; Williams, Riley J; Allen, Answorth A

2017-05-03

Return to play and patient satisfaction after anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction (ACLR) have been inconsistently studied. The purposes of this study were to (1) investigate rates and predictors of return to play after ACLR, (2) evaluate patient satisfaction after ACLR, and (3) analyze the relationship between return to play and satisfaction with the result of ACLR. Eligible patients were active athletes included in an institutional ACL registry who had undergone ACLR and had been followed for a minimum of 2 years. A questionnaire was administered to elicit information regarding factors associated with return to play, sports performance, reinjury, and overall patient satisfaction. The Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney U test was used to compare return to play with patient satisfaction. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify demographic, sports, and clinical factors associated with return to play. Two hundred and thirty-two patients with a mean age of 26.7 years (standard deviation [SD] = 12.5 years) who had been followed for a mean of 3.7 years were enrolled. Of 231 patients who responded to the return-to-play question, 201 (87.0%) had returned to play, at a mean of 10.1 months; of 175 athletes eligible to return to their prior level of competition, 89.1% had done so. Overall satisfaction was high: 85.4% were very satisfied with the outcome and 98.1% stated that they would have surgery again. Patients were more likely to respond "very satisfied" if they had returned to play (p < 0.001). Use of a patellar tendon autograft (odds ratio [OR] = 5.63, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.32 to 25.76) increased the chance of returning to play whereas playing soccer (OR = 0.23, 95% CI = 0.08 to 0.66) or lacrosse (OR = 0.24, 95% CI = 0.06 to 0.99) preoperatively decreased the likelihood of returning to play. The rates of return to play and patient satisfaction are high after ACLR in active athletes. The use of patellar tendon autograft increased the likelihood of returning to play whereas preinjury participation in soccer and lacrosse decreased these odds. Additionally, patients who returned to play were more likely to be very satisfied with the result of the ACLR. Therapeutic Level IV. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

26 CFR 1.613-6 - Statement to be attached to return when depletion is claimed on percentage basis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 26 Internal Revenue 7 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 true Statement to be attached to return when depletion....613-6 Statement to be attached to return when depletion is claimed on percentage basis. In addition to... depletion deduction under section 613 for any taxable year shall attach to his return for such year a...

5 CFR 630.1302 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... Persian Gulf War, and who has returned to, or will return to Federal employment with his or her agency. An... Stat. 92 (5 U.S.C. 6361 note). Persian Gulf War means the period beginning on August 2, 1990, and...

Probability distribution of extreme share returns in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zin, Wan Zawiah Wan; Safari, Muhammad Aslam Mohd; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Yie, Wendy Ling Shin

2014-09-01

The objective of this study is to investigate the suitable probability distribution to model the extreme share returns in Malaysia. To achieve this, weekly and monthly maximum daily share returns are derived from share prices data obtained from Bursa Malaysia over the period of 2000 to 2012. The study starts with summary statistics of the data which will provide a clue on the likely candidates for the best fitting distribution. Next, the suitability of six extreme value distributions, namely the Gumbel, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Generalized Logistic (GLO) and Generalized Pareto (GPA), the Lognormal (GNO) and the Pearson (PE3) distributions are evaluated. The method of L-moments is used in parameter estimation. Based on several goodness of fit tests and L-moment diagram test, the Generalized Pareto distribution and the Pearson distribution are found to be the best fitted distribution to represent the weekly and monthly maximum share returns in Malaysia stock market during the studied period, respectively.

A wavelet-based evaluation of time-varying long memory of equity markets: A paradigm in crisis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Pei P.; Chin, Cheong W.; Galagedera, Don U. A.

2014-09-01

This study, using wavelet-based method investigates the dynamics of long memory in the returns and volatility of equity markets. In the sample of five developed and five emerging markets we find that the daily return series from January 1988 to June 2013 may be considered as a mix of weak long memory and mean-reverting processes. In the case of volatility in the returns, there is evidence of long memory, which is stronger in emerging markets than in developed markets. We find that although the long memory parameter may vary during crisis periods (1997 Asian financial crisis, 2001 US recession and 2008 subprime crisis) the direction of change may not be consistent across all equity markets. The degree of return predictability is likely to diminish during crisis periods. Robustness of the results is checked with de-trended fluctuation analysis approach.

Trade-offs between forest carbon stocks and harvests in a steady state - A multi-criteria analysis.

PubMed

Pingoud, Kim; Ekholm, Tommi; Sievänen, Risto; Huuskonen, Saija; Hynynen, Jari

2018-03-15

This paper provides a perspective for comparing trade-offs between harvested wood flows and forest carbon stocks with different forest management regimes. A constant management regime applied to a forest area with an even age-class distribution leads to a steady state, in which the annual harvest and carbon stocks remain constant over time. As both are desirable - carbon stocks for mitigating climate change and harvests for the economic use of wood and displacing fossil fuels - an ideal strategy should be chosen from a set of management regimes that are Pareto-optimal in the sense of multi-criteria decision-making. When choosing between Pareto-optimal alternatives, the trade-off between carbon stock and harvests is unavoidable. This trade-off can be described e.g. in terms of carbon payback times or carbon returns. As numerical examples, we present steady-state harvest levels and carbon stocks in a Finnish boreal forest region for different rotation periods, thinning intensities and collection patterns for harvest residues. In the set of simulated management practices, harvest residue collection presents the most favorable trade-off with payback times around 30-40 years; while Pareto-optimal changes in rotation or thinnings exhibited payback times over 100 years, or alternatively carbon returns below 1%. By extending the rotation period and using less-intensive thinnings compared to current practices, the steady-state carbon stocks could be increased by half while maintaining current harvest levels. Additional cases with longer rotation periods should be also considered, but were here excluded due to the lack of reliable data on older forest stands. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Skeletal and dental stability after maxillary distraction with a rigid external device in adult cleft lip and palate patients.

PubMed

Aksu, Muge; Saglam-Aydinatay, Banu; Akcan, Cenk Ahmet; El, Hakan; Taner, Tulin; Kocadereli, Ilken; Tuncbilek, Gokhan; Mavili, Mehmet Emin

2010-02-01

To evaluate skeletal and dental stability in adult cleft lip and palate patients treated with a rigid external distraction system at the end of distraction and during the postdistraction period. Lateral cephalograms of 7 patients were obtained before distraction, at the end of distraction, and during the postdistraction period. The mean age before distraction was 21.56 +/- 4.73 years. The mean follow-up was 37.3 +/- 12.4 months. The assessment of findings showed that skeletal maxillary sagittal movement was achieved in a superoanterior direction. The maxillary depth angle and effective maxillary length increased significantly (2 degrees and 9 mm, respectively) after distraction, whereas the palatal plane angle increased by 8 degrees , resulting in an anterior movement of the maxilla with a counterclockwise rotation. The lower facial height showed no significant changes after distraction. The sagittal movement of the upper incisors and the angulation of the upper first molars increased significantly (4.5 mm and 5.5 degrees , respectively). During the postdistraction period, the maxilla showed a slight relapse (22%). The effective maxillary length decreased by 2 mm. The palatal plane angle almost returned to its original position, showing 7 degrees of clockwise rotation. The lower facial height remained stable. The upper incisors moved anteriorly and the upper first molars showed a significant mesioangular change during follow-up. After distraction, significant maxillary advancement was achieved with a counterclockwise rotation. The upper incisors moved labially, and the upper first molars angulated mesially. After 3 years, a 22% relapse rate was seen in the maxilla. The counterclockwise rotation of the maxilla was returned to its original position. The upper incisors moved more anteriorly. Copyright 2010 American Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Timing of return to work and women's breastfeeding practices in urban Malaysia: A qualitative study.

PubMed

Sulaiman, Zaharah; Liamputtong, Pranee; Amir, Lisa H

2018-01-01

Nearly half of the working population in Malaysia are women, and with only a short period of maternity leave, they may struggle to achieve the recommended 6 months of exclusive breastfeeding. The aim of this paper was to explore the relationship between the timing of return to work and beliefs and breastfeeding practices among women in urban Malaysia. A qualitative inquiry based on a phenomenological framework and multiple methods was used: face-to-face interview, participant diary and researcher field notes. Data collection took place in Penang and the Klang Valley, Malaysia, from March to September 2011. Eligible participants were purposely identified at randomly selected recruitment sites. A thematic analysis method was used to develop the typologies and categories of the findings. A total of 40 working women with a mean age of 32 years (SD 3.4) were interviewed and 15 participated in the diary writing. Most women (75%) returned to work between 2 and 3 months. Only 10% returned to work 4 months or later postpartum, and 15% had an early return to work (defined here as less than 2 months). The women fell into three groups: Passionate women with a strong determination to breastfeed, who exclusively breastfed for 6 months; Ambivalent women, who commenced breastfeeding but were unable to sustain this after returning to work; and Equivalent women, who perceived formula feeding as equally nutritious as breast milk. Although longer maternity leave was very important for Ambivalent women to maintain breastfeeding, it was not as important for the Equivalent or Passionate women. In conclusion, returning earlier was not an absolute barrier to continuing breastfeeding. Instead, a woman's beliefs and perceptions of breastfeeding were more important than the timing of her return to work in determining her ability to maintain breastfeeding or breast milk feeding. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Implications of deregulation in natural gas industry on utility risks and returns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Addepalli, Rajendra P.

This thesis examines the changes in risk and required return on capital for local distribution utility companies in the increasingly competitive natural gas industry. The deregulation in the industry impacts the LDCs in several ways. First, with the introduction of competition consumers have been given choices among suppliers besides the traditional monopoly, the local utility, for purchasing their natural gas supply needs. Second, with the introduction of competition, some of the interstate pipelines were stuck with 'Take Or Pay' contracts and other costs that resulted in 'stranded costs', which have been passed on to customers of the pipeline including the LDCs. Third, the new obligation for the LDCs to purchase gas from the market, as opposed to buying it from pipelines and passing on the costs to its customers, brought opportunities and risks as well. Finally, with the introduction of competition, in some states LDCs have been allowed to enter into unregulated ventures to increase their profits. In the thesis we first develop a multifactor model (MFM) to explain historical common stock returns of individual utilities and of utility portfolios. We use 'rolling regression' analysis to analyze how different variables explain the variation in stock returns over time. Second, we conduct event studies to analyze the events in the deregulation process that had significant impacts on the LDC returns. Finally we assess the changes in risk and required return on capital for the LDCs over a 15 year time frame, covering the deregulation period. We employ four aspects in the examination of risk and return profile of the utilities: measuring (a) changes in required return on common equity and Weighted Average Cost of Capital, (b) changes in risk premium (WACC less an interest rate proxy), (c) changes in utility bond ratings, and (d) changes in dividend payments, new debt and equity issuances. We perform regression analysis to explain the changes in the required WACC using new security issuances, dividend payments and revenues of the companies.

Recovery from sports-related concussion: Days to return to neurocognitive baseline in adolescents versus young adults.

PubMed

Zuckerman, Scott L; Lee, Young M; Odom, Mitchell J; Solomon, Gary S; Forbes, Jonathan A; Sills, Allen K

2012-01-01

Sports-related concussions (SRC) among high school and collegiate athletes represent a significant public health concern. The Concussion in Sport Group (CIS) recommended greater caution regarding return to play with children and adolescents. We hypothesized that younger athletes would take longer to return to neurocognitive baseline than older athletes after a SRC. Two hundred adolescent and young adult athletes who suffered a SRC were included in our clinical research cohort. Of the total participants, 100 were assigned to the 13-16 year age group and 100 to the 18-22 year age group and were matched on the number of prior concussions. Each participant completed baseline and postconcussion neurocognitive testing using the Immediate Post-Concussion assessment and Cognitive Testing (ImPACT) test battery. Return to baseline was defined operationally as post-concussion neurocognitive and symptom scores being equivalent to baseline using reliable change index (RCI) criteria. For each group, the average number of days to return to cognitive and symptom baseline were calculated. Independent sample t-tests were used to compare the mean number of days to return to baseline. Significant differences were found for days to return to baseline between 13-16 year olds and 18-22 year olds in three out of four neurocognitive measures and on the total symptom score. The average number of days to return to baseline was greater for 13-16 year olds than for 18-22 year olds on the following variables: Verbal memory (7.2 vs. 4.7, P = 0.001), visual memory (7.1 vs. 4.7, P = 0.002), reaction time (7.2 vs. 5.1 P = 0.01), and postconcussion symptom scale (8.1 vs. 6.1, P = 0.026). In both groups, greater than 90% of athletes returned to neurocognitive and symptom baseline within 1 month. Our results in this clinical research study show that in SRC, athletes 13-16 years old take longer to return to their neurocognitive and symptom baselines than athletes 18-22 years old.

26 CFR 1.6013-1 - Joint returns.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... husband and wife make this return on a calendar year basis, and the wife dies on August 1, 1956, a joint return may be made with respect to the calendar year 1956 of the husband and the taxable year of the wife beginning on January 1, 1956, and ending with her death on August 1, 1956. Similarly, if husband and wife...

Outbursts in Symbiotic Binaries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sonneborn, George (Technical Monitor); Kenyon, Scott J.

2004-01-01

Two models have been proposed for the outbursts of symbiotic stars. In the thermonuclear model, outbursts begin when the hydrogen burning shell of a hot white dwarf reaches a critical mass. After a rapid increase in the luminosity and effective temperature, the white dwarf evolves at constant luminosity to lower effective temperatures, remains at optical maximum for several years, and then returns to quiescence along a white dwarf cooling curve. In disk instability models, the brightness rises when the accretion rate from the disk onto the central white dwarf abruptly increases by factors of 5-20. After a few month to several year period at maximum, both the luminosity and the effective temperature of the disk decline as the system returns to quiescence. If most symbiotic stars undergo thermonuclear eruptions, then symbiotics are probably poor candidates for type I supernovae. However, they can then provide approx. 10% of the material which stars recycle back into the interstellar medium. If disk instabilities are the dominant eruption mechanism, symbiotics are promising type Ia candidates but recycle less material into the interstellar medium.

Superiority of reproductive histories to sperm counts in detecting infertility at a dibromochloropropane manufacturing plant

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Levine, R.J.; Blunden, P.B.; DalCorso, R.D.

1983-08-01

Sperm count distributions among exposed and control groups at a dibromochloropropane (DBCP) manufacturing plant were remarkably similar. Yet reproductive histories from 60 exposed men obtained in conjunction with the semen analyses indicated that fertility had been reduced during exposure. Ratios of observed to expected births or standardized fertility ratios (SFRs) were computed for reproductive experience at parities of 1 or greater. The SFR for the period at risk from DBCP exposure (SFR . 0.63) was significantly lower than those derived from the entire not-at-risk period (SFR . 1.21) or the portion related to nonexposed employment at the plant preceding exposuremore » (SFR . 1.33). Significant reductions would have been evident at least 18 years prior to the year in which the histories were obtained. The effect on fertility seems to have been greatest during the initial period of DBCP production. Most fertility reduction occurred after 3.5 years of exposure. Fertility returned to normal following cessation of exposure (SFR . 1.18), although it appeared to remain subnormal for about two years. Wherever there is concern about the potential for adverse reproductive effects in the workplace, data suitable for fertility analyses should be collected during annual medical examinations.« less

A pilot study of the eccentric decline squat in the management of painful chronic patellar tendinopathy.

PubMed

Purdam, C R; Jonsson, P; Alfredson, H; Lorentzon, R; Cook, J L; Khan, K M

2004-08-01

This non-randomised pilot study investigated the effect of eccentric quadriceps training on 17 patients (22 tendons) with painful chronic patellar tendinopathy. Two different eccentric exercise regimens were used by subjects with a long duration of pain with activity (more than six months). (a) Nine consecutive patients (10 tendons; eight men, one woman; mean age 22 years) performed eccentric exercise with the ankle joint in a standard (foot flat) position. (b) Eight patients (12 tendons; five men, three women; mean age 28 years) performed eccentric training standing on a 25 degrees decline board, designed to increase load on the knee extensor mechanism. The eccentric training was performed twice daily, with three sets of 15 repetitions, for 12 weeks. Primary outcome measures were (a) 100 mm visual analogue scale (VAS), where the subject recorded the amount of pain during activity, and (b) return to previous activity. Follow up was at 12 weeks, with a further limited follow up at 15 months. Good clinical results were obtained in the group who trained on the decline board, with six patients (nine tendons) returning to sport and showing a significantly reduced amount of pain over the 12 week period. Mean VAS scores fell from 74.2 to 28.5 (p = 0.004). At 15 months, four patients (five tendons) reported satisfactory results (mean VAS 26.2). In the standard squat group the results were poor, with only one athlete returning to previous activity. Mean VAS scores in this group were 79.0 at baseline and 72.3 at 12 weeks (p = 0.144). In a small group of patients with patellar tendinopathy, eccentric squats on a decline board produced encouraging results in terms of pain reduction and return to function in the short term. Eccentric exercise using standard single leg squats in a similar sized group appeared to be a less effective form of rehabilitation in reducing pain and returning subjects to previous levels of activity.

Implementation of a post-cardiac arrest care bundle including therapeutic hypothermia and hemodynamic optimization in comatose patients with return of spontaneous circulation after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: a feasibility study.

PubMed

Walters, Elizabeth Lea; Morawski, Kyle; Dorotta, Ihab; Ramsingh, Davinder; Lumen, Kelly; Bland, David; Clem, Kathleen; Nguyen, H Bryant

2011-04-01

Patients who present to the emergency department (ED) with return of spontaneous circulation after cardiac arrest generally have poor outcomes. Guidelines for treatment can be complicated and difficult to implement. This study examined the feasibility of implementing a care bundle including therapeutic hypothermia (TH) and early hemodynamic optimization for comatose patients with return of spontaneous circulation after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. The study included patients over a 2-year period in the ED and intensive care unit of an academic tertiary-care medical center. The first year (prebundle) provided a historical control, followed by a prospective observational period of bundle implementation during the second year. The bundle elements included (a) TH initiated; (b) central venous pressure/central venous oxygen saturation monitoring in 2 h; (c) target temperature in 4 h; (d) central venous pressure greater than 12 mmHg in 6 h; (e) MAP greater than 65 mmHg in 6 h; (f) central venous oxygen saturation greater than 70% in 6 h; (g) TH maintained for 24 h; and (h) decreasing lactate in 24 h. Fifty-five patients were enrolled, 26 patients in the prebundle phase and 29 patients in the bundle phase. Seventy-seven percent of bundle elements were completed during the bundle phase. In-hospital mortality in bundle compared with prebundle patients was 55.2% vs. 69.2% (P = 0.29). In the bundle patients, those patients who received all elements of the care bundle had mortality 33.3% compared with 60.9% in those receiving some of the bundle elements (P = 0.22). Bundle patients tended to achieve good neurologic outcome compared with prebundle patients, Cerebral Performance Category 1 or 2 in 31 vs. 12% patients, respectively (P = 0.08). Our study demonstrated that a post-cardiac arrest care bundle that incorporates TH and early hemodynamic optimization can be implemented in the ED and intensive care unit collaboratively and can achieve similar clinical benefits compared with those observed in previous clinical trials.

[Scarlet fever epidemic during year 1929 in Chile].

PubMed

Laval R, Enrique

2009-04-01

Scarlet fever is endemic in Chile, with relatively low morbidity and periodic exacerbations every 4 or 5 years, which can become epidemics. From 1921 to 1927, the number of patients hospitalized in the country fluctuated from 15 to 65 per year, until an epidemic involving nearly 3.000 patients started at the end of 1928 and continued during all 1929. 978 patients died, 537 (52.5%) were from Santiago. Public Health authorities confronted this emergency with prevention, prophylaxis, isolation and treatment measures and 558 beds were disposed for patient hospitalization. Vaccination trials were undertaken and specific treatment with antitoxins was used in patients with toxic clinical cases, having satisfactory results. Convalescent patients were controlled in order to stop the spread of the infection. After approximately 3 years, this disease returned to its regular endemicity.

An index-flood model for deficit volumes assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strnad, Filip; Moravec, Vojtěch; Hanel, Martin

2017-04-01

The estimation of return periods of hydrological extreme events and the evaluation of risks related to such events are objectives of many water resources studies. The aim of this study is to develop statistical model for drought indices using extreme value theory and index-flood method and to use this model for estimation of return levels of maximum deficit volumes of total runoff and baseflow. Deficit volumes for hundred and thirty-three catchments in the Czech Republic for the period 1901-2015 simulated by a hydrological model Bilan are considered. The characteristics of simulated deficit periods (severity, intensity and length) correspond well to those based on observed data. It is assumed that annual maximum deficit volumes in each catchment follow the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. The catchments are divided into three homogeneous regions considering long term mean runoff, potential evapotranspiration and base flow. In line with the index-flood method it is further assumed that the deficit volumes within each homogeneous region are identically distributed after scaling with a site-specific factor. The goodness-of-fit of the statistical model is assessed by Anderson-Darling statistics. For the estimation of critical values of the test several resampling strategies allowing for appropriate handling of years without drought are presented. Finally the significance of the trends in the deficit volumes is assessed by a likelihood ratio test.