Changes in Concurrent Risk of Warm and Dry Years under Impact of Climate Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sarhadi, A.; Wiper, M.; Touma, D. E.; Ausín, M. C.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.
2017-12-01
Anthropogenic global warming has changed the nature and the risk of extreme climate phenomena. The changing concurrence of multiple climatic extremes (warm and dry years) may result in intensification of undesirable consequences for water resources, human and ecosystem health, and environmental equity. The present study assesses how global warming influences the probability that warm and dry years co-occur in a global scale. In the first step of the study a designed multivariate Mann-Kendall trend analysis is used to detect the areas in which the concurrence of warm and dry years has increased in the historical climate records and also climate models in the global scale. The next step investigates the concurrent risk of the extremes under dynamic nonstationary conditions. A fully generalized multivariate risk framework is designed to evolve through time under dynamic nonstationary conditions. In this methodology, Bayesian, dynamic copulas are developed to model the time-varying dependence structure between the two different climate extremes (warm and dry years). The results reveal an increasing trend in the concurrence risk of warm and dry years, which are in agreement with the multivariate trend analysis from historical and climate models. In addition to providing a novel quantification of the changing probability of compound extreme events, the results of this study can help decision makers develop short- and long-term strategies to prepare for climate stresses now and in the future.
Rapid genetic divergence in response to 15 years of simulated climate change.
Ravenscroft, Catherine H; Whitlock, Raj; Fridley, Jason D
2015-11-01
Genetic diversity may play an important role in allowing individual species to resist climate change, by permitting evolutionary responses. Our understanding of the potential for such responses to climate change remains limited, and very few experimental tests have been carried out within intact ecosystems. Here, we use amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) data to assess genetic divergence and test for signatures of evolutionary change driven by long-term simulated climate change applied to natural grassland at Buxton Climate Change Impacts Laboratory (BCCIL). Experimental climate treatments were applied to grassland plots for 15 years using a replicated and spatially blocked design and included warming, drought and precipitation treatments. We detected significant genetic differentiation between climate change treatments and control plots in two coexisting perennial plant study species (Festuca ovina and Plantago lanceolata). Outlier analyses revealed a consistent signature of selection associated with experimental climate treatments at individual AFLP loci in P. lanceolata, but not in F. ovina. Average background differentiation at putatively neutral AFLP loci was close to zero, and genomewide genetic structure was associated neither with species abundance changes (demography) nor with plant community-level responses to long-term climate treatments. Our results demonstrate genetic divergence in response to a suite of climatic environments in reproductively mature populations of two perennial plant species and are consistent with an evolutionary response to climatic selection in P. lanceolata. These genetic changes have occurred in parallel with impacts on plant community structure and may have contributed to the persistence of individual species through 15 years of simulated climate change at BCCIL. © 2015 The Authors. Global Change Biology Bioenergy Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Climate Change Impact On Mekong Delta of Vietnam in recent years
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Le, L. T. X., III
2015-12-01
In recent years, the climate change signal increase globally. Abnormal changes of weather tends increasingly detrimental to human life, such as natural disasters occur with increasing level of more severe. Climate change is one the biggest challenges, and is a potential threat to humans. The impact of climate change increases the number and extent of the disaster fierce exists as typhoons, floods, droughts ... Global warming and sea level rise increases the area of flooding, saline intrusion and erosion in the delta region may cause farmers to lose the opportunity to produce, source of life their only. Impact of climate change on people in the community, but poor farmers in the developing countries like our country, women are the most severe consequences In this section, we summarize changes in climate on the territory of Vietnam, especially in Mekong Delta evaluate causes and its relationship to changes in global climate and region. Along with the analysis of characteristics of climate changes over time and through space to help the evolution of the standard deviation (average deviation from the standard of the period from 1971 to 2015) may indicate that the characteristic gas scenes took place related to global climate change ... Vietnam's territory stretches over approximately 15 latitude, the terrain is very complex, located in the interior full of tropical Southeast Asia. Vietnam climate strongly influenced by the Asian monsoon, monsoon and Northern Hemisphere especially the ENSO activity in the equatorial region and the Pacific Ocean. Climate Vietnam abundant and diversified, with strong ties to the region and globally.
The World Grain Economy and Climate Change to the Year 2000: Implications for Policy
1983-01-01
THE WORLD GRAIN ECONOMY AND CUMATE CHANGE TO THE YEAR 2000: IMPUCATIONS FOR POUCY REPORT ON THE FINAL PHASE OF A CLIMATE IMPACT ASSESSMENT CONDUCTED...MODEL...................................... 37 APPENDIX B-A SUMMARY OF CROP YIELDS AND CLIMATE CHANGE TOTHE YR00............33 CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES...114. PROJECTED BASE 2000 YIELDS .................. 1S LIST OF TABLES 1. CLIMATE PARAMETERS BY LATITUDINAL ZONES .. S 2. SOURCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Cronin, Thomas M.
2016-01-01
Climate change (including climate variability) refers to regional or global changes in mean climate state or in patterns of climate variability over decades to millions of years often identified using statistical methods and sometimes referred to as changes in long-term weather conditions (IPCC, 2012). Climate is influenced by changes in continent-ocean configurations due to plate tectonic processes, variations in Earth’s orbit, axial tilt and precession, atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, solar variability, volcanism, internal variability resulting from interactions between the atmosphere, oceans and ice (glaciers, small ice caps, ice sheets, and sea ice), and anthropogenic activities such as greenhouse gas emissions and land use and their effects on carbon cycling.
The distributions of Chinese yak breeds in response to climate change over the past 50 years.
Wu, Jianguo
2016-07-01
The effects of prior climate change on yak breed distributions are uncertain. Here, we measured changes in the distributions of 12 yak breeds over the past 50 years in China and examined whether the changes could be attributed to climate change. Long-term records of yak breed distribution, grey relational analysis, fuzzy sets classification techniques and attribution methods were used. Over the past 50 years, the distributions of several yak breeds have changed in multiple directions, mainly shifting northward or westward, and most of these changes are related to the thermal index. Driven by climate change over the past years, the suitable range and the distribution centers of certain yak breeds have changed with fluctuation and have mainly shifted northward, eastward or southward. The consistency of observed versus predicted changes in distribution boundaries or distribution centers is higher for certain yak breeds. Changes in the eastern distribution boundary of two yak breeds over the past 50 years can be attributed to climate change. © 2015 Japanese Society of Animal Science.
Averaged 30 year climate change projections mask opportunities for species establishment
Serra-Diaz, Josep M.; Franklin, Janet; Sweet, Lynn C.; McCullough, Ian M.; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Regan, Helen M.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.; Dingman, John; Moritz, Max A.; Redmond, Kelly T.; Hannah, Lee; Davis, Frank W.
2016-01-01
Survival of early life stages is key for population expansion into new locations and for persistence of current populations (Grubb 1977, Harper 1977). Relative to adults, these early life stages are very sensitive to climate fl uctuations (Ropert-Coudert et al. 2015), which often drive episodic or ‘event-limited’ regeneration (e.g. pulses) in long-lived plant species (Jackson et al. 2009). Th us, it is diffi cult to mechanistically associate 30-yr climate norms to dynamic processes involved in species range shifts (e.g. seedling survival). What are the consequences of temporal aggregation for estimating areas of potential establishment? We modeled seedling survival for three widespread tree species in California, USA ( Quercus douglasii, Q. kelloggii , Pinus sabiniana ) by coupling a large-scale, multi-year common garden experiment to high-resolution downscaled grids of climatic water defi cit and air temperature (Flint and Flint 2012, Supplementary material Appendix 1). We projected seedling survival for nine climate change projections in two mountain landscapes spanning wide elevation and moisture gradients. We compared areas with windows of opportunity for seedling survival – defi ned as three consecutive years of seedling survival in our species, a period selected based on studies of tree niche ontogeny (Supplementary material Appendix 1) – to areas of 30-yr averaged estimates of seedling survival. We found that temporal aggregation greatly underestimated the potential for species establishment (e.g. seedling survival) under climate change scenarios.
Dangles, Olivier; Rabatel, Antoine; Kraemer, Martin; Zeballos, Gabriel; Soruco, Alvaro; Jacobsen, Dean; Anthelme, Fabien
2017-01-01
While the impacts of climate change on individual species and communities have been well documented there is little evidence on climate-mediated changes for entire ecosystems. Pristine alpine environments can provide unique insights into natural, physical and ecological response to climate change yet broad scale and long-term studies on these potential 'ecosystem sentinels' are scarce. We addressed this issue by examining cover changes of 1689 high-elevation wetlands (temporarily or perennial water-saturated grounds) in the Bolivian Cordillera Real, a region that has experienced significant warming and glacier melting over the last 30 years. We combined high spatial resolution satellite images from PLEIADES with the long-term images archive from LANDSAT to 1) examine environmental factors (e.g., glacier cover, wetland and watershed size) that affected wetland cover changes, and 2) identify wetlands' features that affect their vulnerability (using habitat drying as a proxy) in the face of climate change. Over the (1984-2011) period, our data showed an increasing trend in the mean wetland total area and number, mainly related to the appearance of wet grassland patches during the wetter years. Wetland cover also showed high inter-annual variability and their area for a given year was positively correlated to precipitation intensities in the three months prior to the image date. Also, round wetlands located in highly glacierized catchments were less prone to drying, while relatively small wetlands with irregularly shaped contours suffered the highest rates of drying over the last three decades. High Andean wetlands can therefore be considered as ecosystem sentinels for climate change, as they seem sensitive to glacier melting. Beyond the specific focus of this study, our work illustrates how satellite-based monitoring of ecosystem sentinels can help filling the lack of information on the ecological consequences of current and changing climate conditions, a common and
Linkages of periodic climatic and social-economic changes in China during the past 2000 years
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fang, Xiuqi; Su, Yu; Yin, Jun; Wei, Zhudeng
2016-04-01
Impacts of climate change on rise and fall of human civilization in the history could provide lessons for understanding how impacts of climatic change and human response interacted. However, such a study is highly restricted by lacking in high-resolution series concerning long-term social-economic processes. China is a country that has great potential for providing long-term socio-economic series in high-resolution because it has abundant related historical records as long as thousands of years in the Chinese historical literatures. In this paper, A methodology named Semantic Differential for quantifying historical literal descriptions to grade numbers is developed. Using the methodology, 10-year resolution graded series of social-economic system change of China, including harvest of agriculture, economy, social rise and fall, are reconstructed during the past 2000 years. To compare the periodic changes of climate, harvest, economy, social rise and fall in China during the past 2000 years, it is found that : (1) There are similar periods on multiple time scales among all the series. (2) On the centurial scale, the better economic and social phases generally occurred in the better harvest phases when generally had a warm climate. (3) In the warm phases, both economic and social status were recovered faster and flourished longer than that in the cold phases. (4) The direct impact of climatic change on food security could be enlarged or diminished when it transmitted from harvest I to other social-economic subsystems because of feedbacks of the system.
Wu, Jianguo; Zhang, Guobin
2015-06-01
The distributions of bird species have changed over the past 50 years in China. To evaluate whether the changes can be attributed to the changing climate, we analyzed the distributions of 20 subspecies of resident birds in relation to climate change. Long-term records of bird distributions, gray relational analysis, fuzzy-set classification techniques, and attribution methods were used. Among the 20 subspecies of resident birds, the northern limits of over half of the subspecies have shifted northward since the 1960s, and most changes have been related to the thermal index. Driven by climate change over the past 50 years, the suitable range and latitude or longitude of the distribution centers of certain birds have exhibited increased fluctuations. The northern boundaries of over half of the subspecies have shifted northward compared with those in the 1960s. The consistency between the observed and predicted changes in the range limits was quite high for some subspecies. The changes in the northern boundaries or the latitudes of the centers of distribution of nearly half of the subspecies can be attributed to climate change. The results suggest that climate change has affected the distributions of particular birds. The method used to attribute changes in bird distributions to climate change may also be effective for other animals.
Wu, Jianguo; Zhang, Guobin
2015-01-01
The distributions of bird species have changed over the past 50 years in China. To evaluate whether the changes can be attributed to the changing climate, we analyzed the distributions of 20 subspecies of resident birds in relation to climate change. Long-term records of bird distributions, gray relational analysis, fuzzy-set classification techniques, and attribution methods were used. Among the 20 subspecies of resident birds, the northern limits of over half of the subspecies have shifted northward since the 1960s, and most changes have been related to the thermal index. Driven by climate change over the past 50 years, the suitable range and latitude or longitude of the distribution centers of certain birds have exhibited increased fluctuations. The northern boundaries of over half of the subspecies have shifted northward compared with those in the 1960s. The consistency between the observed and predicted changes in the range limits was quite high for some subspecies. The changes in the northern boundaries or the latitudes of the centers of distribution of nearly half of the subspecies can be attributed to climate change. The results suggest that climate change has affected the distributions of particular birds. The method used to attribute changes in bird distributions to climate change may also be effective for other animals. PMID:26078858
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gajewski, Konrad J.
Pollen records from varved-lake sediments at seven locations in the northeastern United States record late Holocene climate changes over the past 1000-2000 years. Simplification of pollen diagrams by principal component analysis documents that climate changes affect vegetation at all sites, and not just at "sensitive" sites or ecotones. All seven pollen records show a long-term trend, medium frequency oscillations and higher frequency fluctuations. The between-site similarity of the trend and the coherency of the medium frequency oscillations demonstrates the importance of climate forcing to vegetation change at these scales. Response of vegetation to a climatic change is quite rapid, and depends not only on the nature of the climate fluctuation, but also on the pre-existing state of the vegetation. Multiple regression and canonical correlation techniques were used to calculate calibration functions from a spatial network of modern pollen and climate data. When analyzed at comparable scales, the spatial distribution of pollen assemblages in northeastern United States are related both to summer temperature and annual precipitation. Although summer temperature and annual precipitation are coupled, this coupling is not so strong as to negate the use of univariate calibration models. Over the 2000-year period of time, a gradual summer cooling of about 1.0(DEGREES)C/1000 years has occurred. Superimposed on the long-term trend are medium frequency temperature fluctuations of amplitude about 0.5(DEGREES)C that persist for several centuries. Annual precipitation is relatively constant, except for a period of increased rainfall from 600 years ago to the present in southern Maine.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Buck, P.; Rudd, L.; McAlister, J.; Bonde, A.
2013-12-01
We present results of a 5 yr NSF funded project, part of Nevada ';s Climate Change Research Education and Outreach EPSCoR award. Goals of the K-12 portion of the project included: a replicable professional development model of K-12 climate change science education for Nevada and other institutions; strengthened relationships between secondary school teachers and NSHE climate change researchers; and greater teacher pedagogical content knowledge in climate change science and greater confidence in ability to teach effectively. Two overarching research questions formed the foundation of our teacher professional development program: 1) How will climate change affect Nevada's baseline water resources (groundwater and surface water) and linked ecosystem services? 2) How will climate change affect natural and anthropogenic disturbances (e.g., wildland fires, invasive species, and insect outbreaks)? All teachers participated in at least one (2-week long) summer institute and academic year follow up focused on one of two overarching research questions forming the basis of the award assisted by a disciplinary graduate student . An on-line class (ENV 794) was a 3 credit graduate credit bearing class from UNLV based on the fundamentals of climate change science was available free to participating teachers. A supplemental program in the final award year was added following advisory board recommendations to develop a cohort or "learning community" approach at an interested high school. The 'About Climate Change' Integrated Curriculum spans several subject areas and cuts across national standards for STEM English and Social Studies; a 2-week unit developed by Clark HS teachers for their classes. Our teachers increased their content knowledge about climate change science. This is indicated in student evaluations of the on-line course ENV 794, and in the summer institute post test of content knowledge which included about 25 questions. There was improvement for our one focus
Dangles, Olivier; Rabatel, Antoine; Kraemer, Martin; Zeballos, Gabriel; Soruco, Alvaro; Jacobsen, Dean; Anthelme, Fabien
2017-01-01
While the impacts of climate change on individual species and communities have been well documented there is little evidence on climate-mediated changes for entire ecosystems. Pristine alpine environments can provide unique insights into natural, physical and ecological response to climate change yet broad scale and long-term studies on these potential ‘ecosystem sentinels’ are scarce. We addressed this issue by examining cover changes of 1689 high-elevation wetlands (temporarily or perennial water-saturated grounds) in the Bolivian Cordillera Real, a region that has experienced significant warming and glacier melting over the last 30 years. We combined high spatial resolution satellite images from PLEIADES with the long-term images archive from LANDSAT to 1) examine environmental factors (e.g., glacier cover, wetland and watershed size) that affected wetland cover changes, and 2) identify wetlands’ features that affect their vulnerability (using habitat drying as a proxy) in the face of climate change. Over the (1984–2011) period, our data showed an increasing trend in the mean wetland total area and number, mainly related to the appearance of wet grassland patches during the wetter years. Wetland cover also showed high inter-annual variability and their area for a given year was positively correlated to precipitation intensities in the three months prior to the image date. Also, round wetlands located in highly glacierized catchments were less prone to drying, while relatively small wetlands with irregularly shaped contours suffered the highest rates of drying over the last three decades. High Andean wetlands can therefore be considered as ecosystem sentinels for climate change, as they seem sensitive to glacier melting. Beyond the specific focus of this study, our work illustrates how satellite-based monitoring of ecosystem sentinels can help filling the lack of information on the ecological consequences of current and changing climate conditions, a
Climate correlates of 20 years of trophic changes in a high-elevation riparian system
Martin, T.E.
2007-01-01
The consequences of climate change for ecosystem structure and function remain largely unknown. Here, I examine the ability of climate variation to explain long-term changes in bird and plant populations, as well as trophic interactions in a high-elevation riparian system in central Arizona, USA, based on 20 years of study. Abundances of dominant deciduous trees have declined dramatically over the 20 years, correlated with a decline in overwinter snowfall. Snowfall can affect overwinter presence of elk, whose browsing can significantly impact deciduous tree abundance. Thus, climate may affect the plant community indirectly through effects on herbivores, but may also act directly by influencing water availability for plants. Seven species of birds were found to initiate earlier breeding associated with an increase in spring temperature across years. The advance in breeding time did not affect starvation of young or clutch size. Earlier breeding also did not increase the length of the breeding season for single-brooded species, but did for multi-brooded species. Yet, none of these phenology-related changes was associated with bird population trends. Climate had much larger consequences for these seven bird species by affecting trophic levels below (plants) and above (predators) the birds. In particular, the climate-related declines in deciduous vegetation led to decreased abundance of preferred bird habitat and increased nest predation rates. In addition, summer precipitation declined over time, and drier summers also were further associated with greater nest predation in all species. The net result was local extinction and severe population declines in some previously common bird species, whereas one species increased strongly in abundance, and two species did not show clear population changes. These data indicate that climate can alter ecosystem structure and function through complex pathways that include direct and indirect effects on abundances and interactions
Climate correlates of 20 years of trophic changes in a high-elevation riparian system.
Martin, Thomas E
2007-02-01
The consequences of climate change for ecosystem structure and function remain largely unknown. Here, I examine the ability of climate variation to explain long-term changes in bird and plant populations, as well as trophic interactions in a high-elevation riparian system in central Arizona, USA, based on 20 years of study. Abundances of dominant deciduous trees have declined dramatically over the 20 years, correlated with a decline in overwinter snowfall. Snowfall can affect overwinter presence of elk, whose browsing can significantly impact deciduous tree abundance. Thus, climate may affect the plant community indirectly through effects on herbivores, but may also act directly by influencing water availability for plants. Seven species of birds were found to initiate earlier breeding associated with an increase in spring temperature across years. The advance in breeding time did not affect starvation of young or clutch size. Earlier breeding also did not increase the length of the breeding season for single-brooded species, but did for multi-brooded species. Yet, none of these phenology-related changes was associated with bird population trends. Climate had much larger consequences for these seven bird species by affecting trophic levels below (plants) and above (predators) the birds. In particular, the climate-related declines in deciduous vegetation led to decreased abundance of preferred bird habitat and increased nest predation rates. In addition, summer precipitation declined over time, and drier summers also were further associated with greater nest predation in all species. The net result was local extinction and severe population declines in some previously common bird species, whereas one species increased strongly in abundance, and two species did not show clear population changes. These data indicate that climate can alter ecosystem structure and function through complex pathways that include direct and indirect effects on abundances and interactions
... Home / News / Fact sheets / Detail WHO /A. Craggs Climate change and health 1 February 2018 ","datePublished":"2018-02- ... in improved health, particularly through reduced air pollution. Climate change Over the last 50 years, human activities – particularly ...
Climatic change about 11,000 years ago in the Near East
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Wright, H.E.
1995-12-31
Pollen records show that Near Eastern vegetation since about 11,000 years ago has been marked by trees of olive and pistachio, which are adapted to the distinctive mediterranean climate of winter rains and summer drought. The same applied during earlier interglacial intervals. This climate is also believed to favor the spread of annual plants depend for survival on storage of nutrients in seeds rather than roots and tend to spread on bare soils with little vegetation cover. Disturbed ground was presumably common near Natufian settlements and provided habitats suitable for the spread of wild cereal grains. Prior to about 11,000more » years ago steppe vegetation prevailed throughout the Near East, with woodland confined to middle elevations of mountains in Greece and the Levant. The summer climate then was cool and cloudy, and reduced evaporation permitted the expansion of lakes on the Anatolian Plateau. The climate then was still under the influence of prevailing westerly winds, which had bleen displaced southward by the North American and Eurasian ice sheets in summer as well as winter. As the ice sheets accelerated their retreat the westerlies withdrew and the subtropical high-pressure belt expanded to the north in the summer. At the same time summer insolation in the continental interior reached a maximum, according to Milankovitch curves for Earth/Sun orbital changes. This reconstruction is supported by paleoclimatic model simulations, which indicate that before about 11,000 years ago summers had more storms, more cloudiness, and cooler temperatures. The occurrence of a Younger Dryas climatic reversal 11,000 - 10,000 years ago in the Near East is not well documented in pollen diagrams, but the chronology is complicated by the existence of {open_quotes}radiocarbon pleateaus{close_quotes} centering on 10,000 and 9500 radiocarbon years ago.« less
Wu, Jianguo
2016-01-01
It is unclear whether the distributions of snakes have changed in association with climate change over the past years. We detected the distribution changes of snakes over the past 50 years and determined whether the changes could be attributed to recent climate change in China. Long-term records of the distribution of nine snake species in China, grey relationship analysis, fuzzy sets classification techniques, the consistency index, and attributed methods were used. Over the past 50 years, the distributions of snake species have changed in multiple directions, primarily shifting northwards, and most of the changes were related to the thermal index. Driven by climatic factors over the past 50 years, the distribution boundary and distribution centers of some species changed with the fluctuations. The observed and predicted changes in distribution were highly consistent for some snake species. The changes in the northern limits of distributions of nearly half of the species, as well as the southern and eastern limits, and the distribution centers of some snake species can be attributed to climate change.
Current Climate Variability & Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Diem, J.; Criswell, B.; Elliott, W. C.
2013-12-01
climate change. The next section guides students through the exploration of temporal changes in global temperature from the surface to the lower stratosphere. Students discover that there has been global warming over the past several decades, and the subsequent section allows them to consider solar radiation and greenhouse gases as possible causes of this warming. Students then zoom in on different latitudinal zones to examine changes in temperature for each zone and hypothesize about why one zone may have warmed more than others. The final section, prior to the answering of the essential questions, is an examination of the following effects of the current change in temperatures: loss of sea ice; rise of sea level; loss of permafrost loss; and moistening of the atmosphere. The lab addresses 14 climate-literacy concepts and all seven climate-literacy principles through data and images that are mainly NASA products. It focuses on the satellite era of climate data; therefore, 1979 is the typical starting year for most datasets used by students. Additionally, all time-series analysis end with the latest year with full-year data availability; thus, the climate variability and trends truly are 'current.'
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
van den Bos, Valerie; Rees, Andrew; Newnham, Rewi; Augustinus, Paul
2017-04-01
The response of past terrestrial ecosystems to abrupt climate change is central to the debate surrounding the consequences of future climate change. Many centennial-to-millennial scale episodes of rapid change over the past 117,000 years have been reported, notably the Dansgaard-Oeschger events of Greenland and the North Atlantic and Antarctic Isotope Maxima. Best expressed in past climate records from the polar and tropical regions, the timing, amplitude and duration of these changes are variable on a global scale, and it is unclear how the events are generated and transmitted to cause such asynchronous patterns. The southern mid-latitudes form a poorly understood piece of the puzzle. Our Marsden-funded project aims to increase understanding of the New Zealand climate system in relation to global patterns over the last 100 kyr by developing high-resolution climate records from the lake sediments contained within Auckland's maars. These crater lakes are unique, because their sediments are laminated throughout and the sedimentation rate is very high. Additionally, the numerous (>50) volcanic ash layers contained within the sediments act as anchor points in our chronologies. We have adopted a multiproxy approach that combines data from biotic, molecular biomarker isotope and geochemical analyses. The remit of my doctorate is to produce two independent, but complementary, temperature reconstructions from chironomid remains (mean summer temperatures) and pollen (mean annual temperatures) from Lake Pupuke sediments. This approach will eventually help us to address whether abrupt climate change events or changes in seasonality influenced climate and biota over the past 100,000 years in northern New Zealand, and whether these changes were driven by triggers from the North Atlantic, Antarctica or the tropics.
,
2009-01-01
Fifty years of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) research on glacier change shows recent dramatic shrinkage of glaciers in three climatic regions of the United States. These long periods of record provide clues to the climate shifts that may be driving glacier change. The USGS Benchmark Glacier Program began in 1957 as a result of research efforts during the International Geophysical Year (Meier and others, 1971). Annual data collection occurs at three glaciers that represent three climatic regions in the United States: South Cascade Glacier in the Cascade Mountains of Washington State; Wolverine Glacier on the Kenai Peninsula near Anchorage, Alaska; and Gulkana Glacier in the interior of Alaska (fig. 1).
Recent Climate and Ice-Sheet Changes in West Antarctica Compared with the Past 2,000 Years
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Steig, Eric J.; Ding, Qinghua; White, James W.; Kuttel, Marcel; Rupper, Summer B.; Neumann, Thomas Allen; Neff, Peter D.; Gallant, Ailie J. E.; Mayewski, Paul A.; Taylor, Kendrick C.;
2013-01-01
Changes in atmospheric circulation over the past five decades have enhanced the wind-driven inflow of warm ocean water onto the Antarctic continental shelf, where it melts ice shelves from below1-3. Atmospheric circulation changes have also caused rapid warming4 over the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and contributed to declining sea-ice cover in the adjacent Amundsen-Bellingshausen seas5. It is unknown whether these changes are part of a longer-term trend. Here, we use waterisotope (Delta O-18) data from an array of ice-core records to place recent West Antarctic climate changes in the context of the past two millennia. We find that the d18O of West Antarctic precipitation has increased significantly in the past 50 years, in parallel with the trend in temperature, and was probably more elevated during the 1990s than at any other time during the past 200 years. However, Delta O-18 anomalies comparable to those of recent decades occur about 1% of the time over the past 2,000 years. General circulation model simulations suggest that recent trends in Delta O-18 and climate in West Antarctica cannot be distinguished from decadal variability that originates in the tropics. We conclude that the uncertain trajectory of tropical climate variability represents a significant source of uncertainty in projections of West Antarctic climate and ice-sheet change.
CLIMATE CHANGE. Climate change impacts on bumblebees converge across continents.
Kerr, Jeremy T; Pindar, Alana; Galpern, Paul; Packer, Laurence; Potts, Simon G; Roberts, Stuart M; Rasmont, Pierre; Schweiger, Oliver; Colla, Sheila R; Richardson, Leif L; Wagner, David L; Gall, Lawrence F; Sikes, Derek S; Pantoja, Alberto
2015-07-10
For many species, geographical ranges are expanding toward the poles in response to climate change, while remaining stable along range edges nearest the equator. Using long-term observations across Europe and North America over 110 years, we tested for climate change-related range shifts in bumblebee species across the full extents of their latitudinal and thermal limits and movements along elevation gradients. We found cross-continentally consistent trends in failures to track warming through time at species' northern range limits, range losses from southern range limits, and shifts to higher elevations among southern species. These effects are independent of changing land uses or pesticide applications and underscore the need to test for climate impacts at both leading and trailing latitudinal and thermal limits for species. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.
Species interactions reverse grassland responses to changing climate.
Suttle, K B; Thomsen, Meredith A; Power, Mary E
2007-02-02
Predictions of ecological response to climate change are based largely on direct climatic effects on species. We show that, in a California grassland, species interactions strongly influence responses to changing climate, overturning direct climatic effects within 5 years. We manipulated the seasonality and intensity of rainfall over large, replicate plots in accordance with projections of leading climate models and examined responses across several trophic levels. Changes in seasonal water availability had pronounced effects on individual species, but as precipitation regimes were sustained across years, feedbacks and species interactions overrode autecological responses to water and reversed community trajectories. Conditions that sharply increased production and diversity through 2 years caused simplification of the food web and deep reductions in consumer abundance after 5 years. Changes in these natural grassland communities suggest a prominent role for species interactions in ecosystem response to climate change.
Impacts of climatic change and fishing on Pacific salmon abundance over the past 300 years.
Finney, B P; Gregory-Eaves, I; Sweetman, J; Douglas, M S; Smol, J P
2000-10-27
The effects of climate variability on Pacific salmon abundance are uncertain because historical records are short and are complicated by commercial harvesting and habitat alteration. We use lake sediment records of delta15N and biological indicators to reconstruct sockeye salmon abundance in the Bristol Bay and Kodiak Island regions of Alaska over the past 300 years. Marked shifts in populations occurred over decades during this period, and some pronounced changes appear to be related to climatic change. Variations in salmon returns due to climate or harvesting can have strong impacts on sockeye nursery lake productivity in systems where adult salmon carcasses are important nutrient sources.
Jaspal, Rusi; Nerlich, Brigitte
2014-02-01
Climate change has become a pressing environmental concern for scientists, social commentators and politicians. Previous social science research has explored media representations of climate change in various temporal and geographical contexts. Through the lens of Social Representations Theory, this article provides a detailed qualitative thematic analysis of media representations of climate change in the 1988 British broadsheet press, given that this year constitutes an important juncture in this transition of climate change from the domain of science to that of the socio-political sphere. The following themes are outlined: (i) "Climate change: a multi-faceted threat"; (ii) "Collectivisation of threat"; (iii) "Climate change and the attribution of blame"; and (iv) "Speculative solutions to a complex socio-environmental problem." The article provides detailed empirical insights into the "starting-point" for present-day disputes concerning climate change and lays the theoretical foundations for tracking the continuities and discontinuities characterising social representations of climate change in the future.
Climate Change Scenarios in the Yucatan Peninsula to the year 2020
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Orellana, R.; Espadas, C.; Conde, C.; Gay, C.
2010-03-01
A topic that has not been sufficiently analyzed is that the global warming is already affecting, and that it will have worst consequences in those regions with transitional climates, which have more sensibility to changes. This is the case of the Yucatan Peninsula which is semi-arid in their northern portion, and toward the south is subhumid, with a tendency to be more rainy toward the south. To have an estimation of what could happen in the future, the Intergovernmental Panel of Climatic Change (IPCC) has promoted the use of General Circulation Models (GCM), as well as the construction of possible emission scenarios that integrate different global and regional socioeconomic and demographic conditions, which project then a possible increase of emissions of greenhouse gases. These conditions are recognized as the decisive forces that will determine the variations of temperature and of precipitation. These projections are useful for the analysis of climatic change, and in particular for the assessments of the possible impacts and of the initiatives of adaptation and of mitigation that should be implemented in every country or region. In Mexico, most of those evaluations of climate change have been carried out generally at country level. For that reason, it is necessary to direct the research at regional level. In this work, we evaluated the potential climatic changes on the Yucatan Peninsula, considering the different changes of temperature and precipitation as a consequence for different emission scenarios and for the horizon 2020. To project the environmental responses of the region, we used as a base scenario the available temperature and precipitation information of the period 1961-1990, registered in 85 meteorological stations of the peninsula. With these data, we generated climate change scenarios using the outputs of four General Circulation Models: HADLEY, ECHAM, GFDL and CGCM, and the emission scenarios A1FI, A2, B1 and B2. The outputs of these models were
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Steig, E. J.
2012-12-01
It is well known that the Antarctic ice sheet is changing rapidly and is probably now out of balance; at least in West Antarctica, it is now contributing significantly to sea level rise. Yet Antarctica is often thought of as being immune to the influence of anthropogenic climate trends affecting the rest of the planet. This view is based largely on the record of instrumental observations, which is both very short and largely exclusive of regions in West Antarctica that are undergoing rapid change (1). Data from ice cores (2) and boreholes (3) from across the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and the Antarctic Peninsula (4), coupled with new instrumental reconstructions (5, 6) paint a very different picture. The two newest long records from Antarctica --- at WAIS Divide (2) and at James Ross Island on the Antarctic Peninsula (4) -- show that over the last 2000 years, the temporal pattern of temperature change is similar to that for the Arctic: slow decline attributable to Milankovitch orbital forcing, interrupted by recent warming. The century-scale warming trend began early in the 20th century, coincident with strong warming trends across the Southern Hemisphere, and well before the advent of the ozone hole, to which Antarctic climate trends are frequently attributed (e.g. 7). Decadal temperature variability in Antarctica also follows averaged Southern Hemisphere variations: all the major decadal anomalies in the ~150-year instrumental climate record of the Southern Hemisphere appear in West Antarctica. Similar to the rest of the planet, the warmest period since at least 1850 C.E. in the Antarctic was the most recent two decades (1990s and 2000s), and the most recent warming in West Antarctica (including but not limited to the Peninsula) has been as rapid as anywhere else on Earth. The decadal to century-scale variations in West Antarctic temperature reflect by the strong dynamical link between the tropical Pacific and the southern high latitudes described by the Pacific
2000 years of cultural adaptation to climate change in the Southwestern United States.
Blinman, Eric
2008-11-01
Modern concerns with climate change often overlook the extensive history of both climate change and human adaptation over the millennia. While questions of human-climate system causation are important, especially to the extent that our current behavior is driving environmental change, human societies have experienced multiple climate changes in the past, independent of causation. The histories of cultural adaptation to those changes can help us understand the dynamic interaction between climate and society, expanding the possibilities for "proactive adaptation" that may be available to us today. The underlying principles of cultural adaptation are generally independent of the source of the climate change, and the lessons of the past can suggest social and economic paths that can lead toward sustainability and away from collapse.
Interactions of Mean Climate Change and Climate Variability on Food Security Extremes
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Ruane, Alexander C.; McDermid, Sonali; Mavromatis, Theodoros; Hudson, Nicholas; Morales, Monica; Simmons, John; Prabodha, Agalawatte; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Ahmad, Shakeel; Ahuja, Laj R.
2015-01-01
Recognizing that climate change will affect agricultural systems both through mean changes and through shifts in climate variability and associated extreme events, we present preliminary analyses of climate impacts from a network of 1137 crop modeling sites contributed to the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP). At each site sensitivity tests were run according to a common protocol, which enables the fitting of crop model emulators across a range of carbon dioxide, temperature, and water (CTW) changes. C3MP can elucidate several aspects of these changes and quantify crop responses across a wide diversity of farming systems. Here we test the hypothesis that climate change and variability interact in three main ways. First, mean climate changes can affect yields across an entire time period. Second, extreme events (when they do occur) may be more sensitive to climate changes than a year with normal climate. Third, mean climate changes can alter the likelihood of climate extremes, leading to more frequent seasons with anomalies outside of the expected conditions for which management was designed. In this way, shifts in climate variability can result in an increase or reduction of mean yield, as extreme climate events tend to have lower yield than years with normal climate.C3MP maize simulations across 126 farms reveal a clear indication and quantification (as response functions) of mean climate impacts on mean yield and clearly show that mean climate changes will directly affect the variability of yield. Yield reductions from increased climate variability are not as clear as crop models tend to be less sensitive to dangers on the cool and wet extremes of climate variability, likely underestimating losses from water-logging, floods, and frosts.
Balato, N; Ayala, F; Megna, M; Balato, A; Patruno, C
2013-02-01
Global climate appears to be changing at an unprecedented rate. Climate change can be caused by several factors that include variations in solar radiation received by earth, oceanic processes (such as oceanic circulation), plate tectonics, and volcanic eruptions, as well as human-induced alterations of the natural world. Many human activities, such as the use of fossil fuel and the consequent accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, land consumption, deforestation, industrial processes, as well as some agriculture practices are contributing to global climate change. Indeed, many authors have reported on the current trend towards global warming (average surface temperature has augmented by 0.6 °C over the past 100 years), decreased precipitation, atmospheric humidity changes, and global rise in extreme climatic events. The magnitude and cause of these changes and their impact on human activity have become important matters of debate worldwide, representing climate change as one of the greatest challenges of the modern age. Although many articles have been written based on observations and various predictive models of how climate change could affect social, economic and health systems, only few studies exist about the effects of this change on skin physiology and diseases. However, the skin is the most exposed organ to environment; therefore, cutaneous diseases are inclined to have a high sensitivity to climate. For example, global warming, deforestation and changes in precipitation have been linked to variations in the geographical distribution of vectors of some infectious diseases (leishmaniasis, lyme disease, etc) by changing their spread, whereas warm and humid environment can also encourage the colonization of the skin by bacteria and fungi. The present review focuses on the wide and complex relationship between climate change and dermatology, showing the numerous factors that are contributing to modify the incidence and the clinical pattern of many
Changes in the Perceived Risk of Climate Change: Evidence from Sudden Climatic Events
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Anttila-Hughes, J. K.
2009-12-01
In the course of the past two decades the threat of anthropogenic climate change has moved from a scientific concern of relative obscurity to become one of the largest environmental and public goods problems in history. During this period public understanding of the risk of climate change has shifted from negligible to quite large. In this paper I propose a means of quantifying this change by examining how sudden events supporting the theory of anthropogenic climate change have affected carbon intensive companies' stock prices. Using CAPM event study methodology for companies in several carbon-intensive industries, I find strong evidence that markets have been reacting to changes in the scientific evidence for climate change for some time. Specifically, the change in magnitude of response over time seems to indicate that investors believed climate change was a potentially serious risk to corporate profits as early as the mid 1990s. Moreover, market reaction dependence on event type indicates that investors are differentiating between different advances in the scientific knowledge. Announcements by NASA GISS that the previous year was a “record hot year” for the globe are associated with negative excess returns, while news of ice shelf collapses are associated with strong positive excess returns. These results imply that investors are aware of how different aspects of climate change will affect carbon intensive companies, specifically in terms of the link between warming in general and polar ice cover. This implies that policy choices based on observable public opinion have lagged actual private concern over climate change's potential threat.
Wagner, Frederic H.; Stohlgren, T.J.; Baldwin, C.K.; Mearns, L.O.; Wagner, Frederic H.
2003-01-01
Three procedures were used to develop a set of plausible scenarios of anthropogenic climate change by the year 2100 that could be posed to the sectors selected for assessment (Fig. 2.2). First, a workshop of climatologists with expertise in western North American climates was convened from September 10-12, 1998 at the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis in Santa Barbara, CA to discuss and propose a set of scenarios for the Rocky Mountain/Great Basin (RMGB) region.Secondly, the 20th-century climate record was analyzed to determine what trends might have occurred during the period. Since CO2 and other greenhouse gases increased during the century, it was reasonable to examine whether the changes projected for the 21st century had begun to appear during the 20th, at least qualitatively though not quantitatively.Third, on the assumption of a two-fold increase in atmospheric CO2 by 2100, climate-change scenarios for the 21st century were projected with two, state-of-the-art computer models that simulate the complex interactions between earth, atmosphere, and ocean to produce the earth’s climate system. Each of the last two procedures has its strengths and weaknesses, and each can function to some degree as a check on the other. The historical analysis has the advantage of using empirical measurements of actual climate change taken over an extensive network of measuring stations. These make it possible to subdivide a large region like the RMGB into subreqions to assess the uniformity of climate and climate change over the region. And the historical measurements can to some degree serve as a check on the GCM simulations when the two are compared over the same time period.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Beswick, Adele
2007-01-01
Weather consists of those meteorological events, such as rain, wind and sunshine, which can change day-by-day or even hour-by-hour. Climate is the average of all these events, taken over a period of time. The climate varies over different parts of the world. Climate is usually defined as the average of the weather over a 30-year period. It is when…
140-Year Dynamics of a Forest Ecotone Under Climate and Environmental Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Thorne, J. H.; Kelsey, R.
2006-12-01
Terrestrial plant species live within elevational limits. Response to climate change at the lower edge of a species' range can be quite different from response at its upper limits. Lower edge dynamics can sometimes lead to rapid shifts, if establishment conditions have changed. Under those circumstances, stand replacing disturbances can cause the local extirpation of the species because subsequent recruitment is ineffectual. We examined the position of lower edge of Pinus ponderosa forests in El Dorado County, California, where the tree occupies a broad elevational gradient. We found that over 140 years, this forest had shifted upslope over 500 meters. Minimum monthly air temperatures from stations forming an elevational transect in these mountains have warmed over the past 60 years by over 30 C. In the zone of the shift, this means that now no months are frozen, whereas 60 years ago December, January and February were below 00C. This warming is associated with advancing summer drought conditions, which set the stage for drought stress and reduced competitive abilities in the seedlings. We present an estimate for how much sooner summer drought conditions begin. Potential confounding factors: including grazing, agriculture, fires and urban expansion were found to occupy only 40% of the 540 km2 of forests lost since 1850 in the County. Forest change here is a disturbance initiated, recruitment limited system. Implications of this research include that the lower edge of coniferous systems are sensitive to climate change, via a combination of direct and indirect effects. A possible feedback between this edge and the lower limits of the snowline is discussed.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Brey, J. A.; Kauffman, C.; Geer, I. W.; Mills, E. W.; Nugnes, K. A.; Stimach, A. E.
2015-12-01
As the effects of climate change become more profound, climate literacy becomes increasingly important. The American Meteorological Society (AMS) responds to this need through the publication of Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate. Both publications incorporate the latest scientific understandings of Earth's climate system from reports such as IPCC AR5 and the USGCRP's Third National Climate Assessment. Topic In Depth sections appear throughout each chapter and lead to more extensive, multidisciplinary information related to various topics. Additionally, each chapter closes with a For Further Exploration essay, which addresses specific topics that complement a chapter concept. Web Resources, which encourage additional exploration of chapter content, and Scientific Literature, from which chapter content was derived can also be found at the conclusion of each chapter. Our Changing Climate covers a breadth of topics, including the scientific principles that govern Earth's climate system and basic statistics and geospatial tools used to investigate the system. Released in fall 2015, Living With Our Changing Climate takes a more narrow approach and investigates human and ecosystem vulnerabilities to climate change, the role of energy choices in affecting climate, actions humans can take through adaption, mitigation, and policy to lessen vulnerabilities, and psychological and financial reasons behind climate change denial. While Living With Our Changing Climate is intended for programs looking to add a climate element into their curriculum, Our Changing Climate is part of the AMS Climate Studies course. In a 2015 survey of California University of Pennsylvania undergraduate students using Our Changing Climate, 82% found it comfortable to read and utilized its interactive components and resources. Both ebooks illuminate the multidisciplinary aspect of climate change, providing the opportunity for a more sustainable future.
Preview of Our Changing Planet. The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for Fiscal Year 2008
2007-04-01
reduce the uncertainty in predictions of the global and regional water cycle and surface climate. Sunlight not reflected back to space provides the...research elements include atmospheric composition, climate variability and change, the global water cycle , land-use and land-cover change, the global...entire planet, and researchers with the ability to better explain observed changes in the climate system. Global Water Cycle – Research associated with
Changes in the Perceived Risk of Climate Change: Evidence from Sudden Climatic Events
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Anttila-Hughes, J. K.
2009-12-01
In the course of the past two decades the threat of anthropogenic climate change has moved from a scientific concern of relative obscurity to become one of the largest environmental and public goods problems in history. During this period public understanding of the risk of climate change has shifted from negligible to quite large. In this paper I propose a means of quantifying this change by examining how sudden events supporting the theory of anthropogenic climate change have affected carbon intensive companies' stock prices. Using CAPM event study methodology for companies in several carbon-intensive industries, I find strong evidence that markets have been reacting to changes in the scientific evidence for climate change for some time. Specifically, the change in magnitude of response over time seems to indicate that investors believed climate change was a potentially serious risk to corporate profits as early as the mid 1990s. Moreover, market reaction dependence on event type indicates that investors are differentiating between different advances in the scientific knowledge. Announcements by NASA GISS that the previous year was a “record hot year” for the globe are associated with negative excess returns, while news of ice shelf collapses are associated with strong positive excess returns. These results imply that investors are aware of how different aspects of climate change will affect carbon intensive companies, specifically in terms of the link between warming in general and polar ice cover.
Rustad, Lindsey; Campbell, John; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Huntington, Thomas; Lambert, Kathy Fallon; Mohan, Jacqueline; Rodenhouse, Nicholas
2012-01-01
Decades of study on climatic change and its direct and indirect effects on forest ecosystems provide important insights for forest science, management, and policy. A synthesis of recent research from the northeastern United States and eastern Canada shows that the climate of the region has become warmer and wetter over the past 100 years and that there are more extreme precipitation events. Greater change is projected in the future. The amount of projected future change depends on the emissions scenarios used. Tree species composition of northeast forests has shifted slowly in response to climate for thousands of years. However, current human-accelerated climate change is much more rapid and it is unclear how forests will respond to large changes in suitable habitat. Projections indicate significant declines in suitable habitat for spruce-fir forests and expansion of suitable habitat for oak-dominated forests. Productivity gains that might result from extended growing seasons and carbon dioxide and nitrogen fertilization may be offset by productivity losses associated with the disruption of species assemblages and concurrent stresses associated with potential increases in atmospheric deposition of pollutants, forest fragmentation, and nuisance species. Investigations of links to water and nutrient cycling suggest that changes in evapotranspiration, soil respiration, and mineralization rates could result in significant alterations of key ecosystem processes. Climate change affects the distribution and abundance of many wildlife species in the region through changes in habitat, food availability, thermal tolerances, species interactions such as competition, and susceptibility to parasites and disease. Birds are the most studied northeastern taxa. Twenty-seven of the 38 bird species for which we have adequate long-term records have expanded their ranges predominantly in a northward direction. There is some evidence to suggest that novel species, including pests and
... in a place over a period of time. Climate change is major change in temperature, rainfall, snow, or ... by natural factors or by human activities. Today climate changes are occurring at an increasingly rapid rate. Climate ...
Climate change 101 : understanding and responding to global climate change
DOT National Transportation Integrated Search
2009-01-01
To inform the climate change dialogue, the Pew Center on Global Climate Change and the Pew Center on the States have developed a series of brief reports entitled Climate Change 101: Understanding and Responding to Global Climate Change. These reports...
Dodo, Mahamat K
2014-01-01
Climate Change like many global problems nowadays is recognized as a threat to the international security and cooperation. In theoretical terms, it is being securitized and included in the traditional security studies. Climate change and its accompanying environmental degradation are perceived to be a threat that can have incalculable consequences on the international community. The consequences are said to have more effects in small island developing nations and Africa where many States are fragile and overwhelmed with mounting challenges. In recent years, the security implications of the climate change are being addressed from national, regional and multilateral level. Against this backdrop, this paper intends to contribute to the debate on climate change and international security and present a broader perspective on the discussion. The paper will draw from the EU-Africa partnership on climate change and is structured as follows: the first part introduces the background of the international climate change policy and its securitization, the second part covers the EU-Africa relations and EU-Africa partnership on climate change, and the third part discusses the Congo Basin Forest Partnership as a concrete example of EU-Africa Partnership on Climate Change. Lastly, the paper concludes by drawing some conclusions and offers some policy perspectives and recommendations. Q54; 055; 052; 01;
Direct observations of ice seasonality reveal changes in climate over the past 320–570 years
Sharma, Sapna; Magnuson, John J.; Batt, Ryan D.; Winslow, Luke; Korhonen, Johanna; Yasuyuki Aono,
2016-01-01
Lake and river ice seasonality (dates of ice freeze and breakup) responds sensitively to climatic change and variability. We analyzed climate-related changes using direct human observations of ice freeze dates (1443–2014) for Lake Suwa, Japan, and of ice breakup dates (1693–2013) for Torne River, Finland. We found a rich array of changes in ice seasonality of two inland waters from geographically distant regions: namely a shift towards later ice formation for Suwa and earlier spring melt for Torne, increasing frequencies of years with warm extremes, changing inter-annual variability, waning of dominant inter-decadal quasi-periodic dynamics, and stronger correlations of ice seasonality with atmospheric CO2 concentration and air temperature after the start of the Industrial Revolution. Although local factors, including human population growth, land use change, and water management influence Suwa and Torne, the general patterns of ice seasonality are similar for both systems, suggesting that global processes including climate change and variability are driving the long-term changes in ice seasonality.
Direct observations of ice seasonality reveal changes in climate over the past 320–570 years
Sharma, Sapna; Magnuson, John J.; Batt, Ryan D.; Winslow, Luke A.; Korhonen, Johanna; Aono, Yasuyuki
2016-01-01
Lake and river ice seasonality (dates of ice freeze and breakup) responds sensitively to climatic change and variability. We analyzed climate-related changes using direct human observations of ice freeze dates (1443–2014) for Lake Suwa, Japan, and of ice breakup dates (1693–2013) for Torne River, Finland. We found a rich array of changes in ice seasonality of two inland waters from geographically distant regions: namely a shift towards later ice formation for Suwa and earlier spring melt for Torne, increasing frequencies of years with warm extremes, changing inter-annual variability, waning of dominant inter-decadal quasi-periodic dynamics, and stronger correlations of ice seasonality with atmospheric CO2 concentration and air temperature after the start of the Industrial Revolution. Although local factors, including human population growth, land use change, and water management influence Suwa and Torne, the general patterns of ice seasonality are similar for both systems, suggesting that global processes including climate change and variability are driving the long-term changes in ice seasonality. PMID:27113125
Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions
Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Sean A. Parks
2016-01-01
Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not...
Climate Change and ENSO Effects on Southeastern US Climate Patterns and Maize Yield.
Mourtzinis, Spyridon; Ortiz, Brenda V; Damianidis, Damianos
2016-07-19
Climate change has a strong influence on weather patterns and significantly affects crop yields globally. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a strong influence on the U.S. climate and is related to agricultural production variability. ENSO effects are location-specific and in southeastern U.S. strongly connect with climate variability. When combined with climate change, the effects on growing season climate patterns and crop yields might be greater than expected. In our study, historical monthly precipitation and temperature data were coupled with non-irrigated maize yield data (33-43 years depending on the location) to show a potential yield suppression of ~15% for one °C increase in southeastern U.S. growing season maximum temperature. Yield suppression ranged between -25 and -2% among locations suppressing the southeastern U.S. average yield trend since 1981 by 17 kg ha(-1)year(-1) (~25%), mainly due to year-to-year June temperature anomalies. Yields varied among ENSO phases from 1971-2013, with greater yields observed during El Niño phase. During La Niña years, maximum June temperatures were higher than Neutral and El Niño, whereas June precipitation was lower than El Niño years. Our data highlight the importance of developing location-specific adaptation strategies quantifying both, climate change and ENSO effects on month-specific growing season climate conditions.
A changing climate of skepticism: The factors shaping climate change coverage in the US press.
Schmid-Petri, Hannah; Adam, Silke; Schmucki, Ivo; Häussler, Thomas
2017-05-01
Skepticism toward climate change has a long tradition in the United States. We focus on mass media as the conveyors of the image of climate change and ask: Is climate change skepticism still a characteristic of US print media coverage? If so, to what degree and in what form? And which factors might pave the way for skeptics entering mass media debates? We conducted a quantitative content analysis of US print media during one year (1 June 2012 to 31 May 2013). Our results show that the debate has changed: fundamental forms of climate change skepticism (such as denial of anthropogenic causes) have been abandoned in the coverage, being replaced by more subtle forms (such as the goal to avoid binding regulations). We find no evidence for the norm of journalistic balance, nor do our data support the idea that it is the conservative press that boosts skepticism.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rooney-Varga, J. N.; Sterman, J.; Sawin, E.; Jones, A.; Merhi, H.; Hunt, C.
2012-12-01
Climate change, its mitigation, and adaption to its impacts are among the greatest challenges of our times. Despite the importance of societal decisions in determining climate change outcomes, flawed mental models about climate change remain widespread, are often deeply entrenched, and present significant barriers to understanding and decision-making around climate change. Here, we describe two simulation role-playing games that combine active, affective, and analytical learning to enable shifts of deeply held conceptions about climate change. The games, World Climate and Future Climate, use a state-of-the-art decision support simulation, C-ROADS (Climate Rapid Overview and Decision Support) to provide users with immediate feedback on the outcomes of their mitigation strategies at the national level, including global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and concentrations, mean temperature changes, sea level rise, and ocean acidification. C-ROADS outcomes are consistent with the atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMS), such as those used by the IPCC, but runs in less than one second on ordinary laptops, providing immediate feedback to participants on the consequences of their proposed policies. Both World Climate and Future Climate role-playing games provide immersive, situated learning experiences that motivate active engagement with climate science and policy. In World Climate, participants play the role of United Nations climate treaty negotiators. Participant emissions reductions proposals are continually assessed through interactive exploration of the best available science through C-ROADS. Future Climate focuses on time delays in the climate and energy systems. Participants play the roles of three generations: today's policymakers, today's youth, and 'just born.' The game unfolds in three rounds 25 simulated years apart. In the first round, only today's policymakers make decisions; In the next round, the young become the policymakers and inherit the
India's National Action Plan on Climate Change.
Pandve, Harshal T
2009-04-01
Climate change is one of the most critical global challenges of our times. Recent events have emphatically demonstrated our growing vulnerability to climate change. Climate change impacts will range from affecting agriculture - further endangering food security - to sea-level rise and the accelerated erosion of coastal zones, increasing intensity of natural disasters, species extinction, and the spread of vector-borne diseases. India released its much-awaited National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) to mitigate and adapt to climate change on June 30, 2008, almost a year after it was announced. The NAPCC runs through 2017 and directs ministries to submit detailed implementation plans to the Prime Minister's Council on Climate Change by December 2008. This article briefly reviews the plan and opinion about it from different experts and organizations.
Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions
Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.
2016-01-01
Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported. PMID:27476545
Modeling Climate Change in the Absence of Climate Change Data. Editorial Comment
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Skiles, J. W.
1995-01-01
Practitioners of climate change prediction base many of their future climate scenarios on General Circulation Models (GCM's), each model with differing assumptions and parameter requirements. For representing the atmosphere, GCM's typically contain equations for calculating motion of particles, thermodynamics and radiation, and continuity of water vapor. Hydrology and heat balance are usually included for continents, and sea ice and heat balance are included for oceans. The current issue of this journal contains a paper by Van Blarcum et al. (1995) that predicts runoff from nine high-latitude rivers under a doubled CO2 atmosphere. The paper is important since river flow is an indicator variable for climate change. The authors show that precipitation will increase under the imposed perturbations and that owing to higher temperatures earlier in the year that cause the snow pack to melt sooner, runoff will also increase. They base their simulations on output from a GCM coupled with an interesting water routing scheme they have devised. Climate change models have been linked to other models to predict deforestation.
One hundred years: A collective case study of climate change education in Georgia
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bloch, Leonard Mark
This collective case study examined how five K-12 science teachers taught about climate change during Fall 2013, and asked how the University of Georgia can support climate change education. The participants were all experienced teachers, and included: three high school teachers, a middle school teacher, and an elementary school teacher. 'Postcarbonism', an emerging theoretical framework, shaped the research and guided the analysis. The teachers varied in their teaching practices and in their conceptions of 'climate change', but they were united in: 1) their focus on mitigation over adaptation, and 2) presenting climate change as a remote problem with simple solutions. The teachers drew on varied resources, but in all cases, their most valuable resources were their own skills, knowledge and personality. The University of Georgia can support climate change education by developing locally relevant educational resources. Curriculum developers might consider building upon the work of outstanding teach.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Flanagan, S.; Hurtt, G. C.; Fisk, J. P.; Rourke, O.
2012-12-01
A robust understanding of the sensitivity of the pattern, structure, and dynamics of ecosystems to climate, climate variability, and climate change is needed to predict ecosystem responses to current and projected climate change. We present results of a study designed to first quantify the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate through the use of climate and ecosystem data, and then use the results to test the sensitivity of the climate data in a state-of the art ecosystem model. A database of available ecosystem characteristics such as mean canopy height, above ground biomass, and basal area was constructed from sources like the National Biomass and Carbon Dataset (NBCD). The ecosystem characteristics were then paired by latitude and longitude with the corresponding climate characteristics temperature, precipitation, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and dew point that were retrieved from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). The average yearly and seasonal means of the climate data, and their associated maximum and minimum values, over the 1979-2010 time frame provided by NARR were constructed and paired with the ecosystem data. The compiled results provide natural patterns of vegetation structure and distribution with regard to climate data. An advanced ecosystem model, the Ecosystem Demography model (ED), was then modified to allow yearly alterations to its mechanistic climate lookup table and used to predict the sensitivities of ecosystem pattern, structure, and dynamics to climate data. The combined ecosystem structure and climate data results were compared to ED's output to check the validity of the model. After verification, climate change scenarios such as those used in the last IPCC were run and future forest structure changes due to climate sensitivities were identified. The results of this study can be used to both quantify and test key relationships for next generation models. The sensitivity of ecosystem characteristics to climate data
Solar activities and Climate change hazards
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hady, A. A., II
2014-12-01
Throughout the geological history of Earth, climate change is one of the recurrent natural hazards. In recent history, the impact of man brought about additional climatic change. Solar activities have had notable effect on palaeoclimatic changes. Contemporary, both solar activities and building-up of green-house gases effect added to the climatic changes. This paper discusses if the global worming caused by the green-house gases effect will be equal or less than the global cooling resulting from the solar activities. In this respect, we refer to the Modern Dalton Minimum (MDM) which stated that starting from year 2005 for the next 40 years; the earth's surface temperature will become cooler than nowadays. However the degree of cooling, previously mentioned in old Dalton Minimum (c. 210 y ago), will be minimized by building-up of green-house gases effect during MDM period. Regarding to the periodicities of solar activities, it is clear that now we have a new solar cycle of around 210 years. Keywords: Solar activities; solar cycles; palaeoclimatic changes; Global cooling; Modern Dalton Minimum.
Li, Yixue; Li, Guoxing; Zeng, Qiang; Liang, Fengchao; Pan, Xiaochuan
2018-02-01
Temperature has been associated with population health, but few studies have projected the future temperature-related years of life lost attributable to climate change. To project future temperature-related disease burden in Tianjin, we selected years of life lost (YLL) as the dependent variable to explore YLL attributable to climate change. A generalized linear model (GLM) and distributed lag non-linear model were combined to assess the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature on the YLL of non-accidental mortality. Then, we calculated the YLL changes attributable to future climate scenarios in 2055 and 2090. The relationships of daily mean temperature with the YLL of non-accident mortality were basically U-shaped. Both the daily mean temperature increase on high-temperature days and its drop on low-temperature days caused an increase of YLL and non-accidental deaths. The temperature-related YLL will worsen if future climate change exceeds 2 °C. In addition, the adverse effects of extreme temperature on YLL occurred more quickly than that of the overall temperature. The impact of low temperature was greater than that of high temperature. Men were vulnerable to high temperature compared with women. This analysis highlights that the government should formulate environmental policies to reach the Paris Agreement goal. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Our Changing Climate: A Brand New Way to Study Climate Science
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Brey, J. A.; Kauffman, C.; Geer, I.; Nugnes, K. A.; Mills, E. W.
2014-12-01
Earth's climate is inherently variable, but is currently changing at rates unprecedented in recent Earth history. Human activity plays a major role in this change and is projected to do so well into the future. This is the stance taken in Our Changing Climate, the brand new climate science ebook from the American Meteorological Society (AMS). Our Changing Climate investigates Earth's climate system, explores humans' impact on it, and identifies actions needed in response to climate change. Released in August 2014, Our Changing Climate is the result of a year's worth of intensive research and writing, incorporating the latest scientific understandings of Earth's climate system from reports such as IPCC AR5 and the Third National Climate Assessment. To encourage additional exploration of climate science information, scientific literature, from which chapter content was derived, is cited at the conclusion of each chapter. In addition, Topic In Depth sections appear throughout each chapter and lead to more extensive information related to various topics. For example, a Topic In Depth in Chapter 11 describes the effect of climate extremes on ranching enterprises in Nebraska. Climate science is multi-disciplinary and therefore Our Changing Climate covers a breadth of topics. From understanding basic statistics and geospatial tools used to investigate Earth's climate system to examining the psychological and financial reasons behind climate change denial, the AMS believes that a multi-disciplinary approach is the most effective way to increase climate literacy. Our Changing Climate is part of the AMS Climate Studies course which is intended for undergraduate-level students. Other course materials include an eInvestigations Manual and access to the RealTime Climate Portal, both of which provide weekly activities corresponding to that week's chapter content. The RealTime Climate Portal also has links to climate data as well as societal interactions and climate policy
Ocean Observations of Climate Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chambers, Don
2016-01-01
The ocean influences climate by storing and transporting large amounts of heat, freshwater, and carbon, and exchanging these properties with the atmosphere. About 93% of the excess heat energy stored by the earth over the last 50 years is found in the ocean. More than three quarters of the total exchange of water between the atmosphere and the earth's surface through evaporation and precipitation takes place over the oceans. The ocean contains 50 times more carbon than the atmosphere and is at present acting to slow the rate of climate change by absorbing one quarter of human emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning, cement production, deforestation and other land use change.Here I summarize the observational evidence of change in the ocean, with an emphasis on basin- and global-scale changes relevant to climate. These include: changes in subsurface ocean temperature and heat content, evidence for regional changes in ocean salinity and their link to changes in evaporation and precipitation over the oceans, evidence of variability and change of ocean current patterns relevant to climate, observations of sea level change and predictions over the next century, and biogeochemical changes in the ocean, including ocean acidification.
The 1,800-year oceanic tidal cycle: A possible cause of rapid climate change
Keeling, Charles D.; Whorf, Timothy P.
2000-01-01
Variations in solar irradiance are widely believed to explain climatic change on 20,000- to 100,000-year time-scales in accordance with the Milankovitch theory of the ice ages, but there is no conclusive evidence that variable irradiance can be the cause of abrupt fluctuations in climate on time-scales as short as 1,000 years. We propose that such abrupt millennial changes, seen in ice and sedimentary core records, were produced in part by well characterized, almost periodic variations in the strength of the global oceanic tide-raising forces caused by resonances in the periodic motions of the earth and moon. A well defined 1,800-year tidal cycle is associated with gradually shifting lunar declination from one episode of maximum tidal forcing on the centennial time-scale to the next. An amplitude modulation of this cycle occurs with an average period of about 5,000 years, associated with gradually shifting separation-intervals between perihelion and syzygy at maxima of the 1,800-year cycle. We propose that strong tidal forcing causes cooling at the sea surface by increasing vertical mixing in the oceans. On the millennial time-scale, this tidal hypothesis is supported by findings, from sedimentary records of ice-rafting debris, that ocean waters cooled close to the times predicted for strong tidal forcing. PMID:10725399
Mental health effects of climate change.
Padhy, Susanta Kumar; Sarkar, Sidharth; Panigrahi, Mahima; Paul, Surender
2015-01-01
We all know that 2014 has been declared as the hottest year globally by the Meteorological department of United States of America. Climate change is a global challenge which is likely to affect the mankind in substantial ways. Not only climate change is expected to affect physical health, it is also likely to affect mental health. Increasing ambient temperatures is likely to increase rates of aggression and violent suicides, while prolonged droughts due to climate change can lead to more number of farmer suicides. Droughts otherwise can lead to impaired mental health and stress. Increased frequency of disasters with climate change can lead to posttraumatic stress disorder, adjustment disorder, and depression. Changes in climate and global warming may require population to migrate, which can lead to acculturation stress. It can also lead to increased rates of physical illnesses, which secondarily would be associated with psychological distress. The possible effects of mitigation measures on mental health are also discussed. The paper concludes with a discussion of what can and should be done to tackle the expected mental health issues consequent to climate change.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Legget, J.; Pepper, W.; Sankovski, A.; Smith, J.; Tol, R.; Wigley, T.
2003-04-01
variants per set of fixed input parameters. The shape and coefficients of CCRAF equations are derived from regression analyses of historic data and expert assessments. There are two types of random components in CCRAF - one reflects a year-to-year fluctuations around the expected value of a given variable (e.g., standard error of the annual GDP growth) and another is fixed within each CCRAF variant and represents some essential constants within a "world" represented by that variant (e.g., the value of climate sensitivity). Both types of random components are drawn from pre-defined probability distributions functions developed based on historic data or expert assessments. Preliminary CCRAF results emphasize the relative importance of uncertainties associated with the conversion of GHG and particulate emissions into radiative forcing and quantifying climate change effects at the regional level. A separates analysis involves an "adaptive decision-making", which optimizes the expected future policy effects given the estimated probabilistic uncertainties. As uncertainty for some variables evolve over the time steps, the decisions also adapt. This modeling approach is feasible only with explicit modeling of uncertainties.
Community-level phenological response to climate change
Ovaskainen, Otso; Skorokhodova, Svetlana; Yakovleva, Marina; Sukhov, Alexander; Kutenkov, Anatoliy; Kutenkova, Nadezhda; Shcherbakov, Anatoliy; Meyke, Evegeniy; Delgado, Maria del Mar
2013-01-01
Climate change may disrupt interspecies phenological synchrony, with adverse consequences to ecosystem functioning. We present here a 40-y-long time series on 10,425 dates that were systematically collected in a single Russian locality for 97 plant, 78 bird, 10 herptile, 19 insect, and 9 fungal phenological events, as well as for 77 climatic events related to temperature, precipitation, snow, ice, and frost. We show that species are shifting their phenologies at dissimilar rates, partly because they respond to different climatic factors, which in turn are shifting at dissimilar rates. Plants have advanced their spring phenology even faster than average temperature has increased, whereas migratory birds have shown more divergent responses and shifted, on average, less than plants. Phenological events of birds and insects were mainly triggered by climate cues (variation in temperature and snow and ice cover) occurring over the course of short periods, whereas many plants, herptiles, and fungi were affected by long-term climatic averages. Year-to-year variation in plants, herptiles, and insects showed a high degree of synchrony, whereas the phenological timing of fungi did not correlate with any other taxonomic group. In many cases, species that are synchronous in their year-to-year dynamics have also shifted in congruence, suggesting that climate change may have disrupted phenological synchrony less than has been previously assumed. Our results illustrate how a multidimensional change in the physical environment has translated into a community-level change in phenology. PMID:23901098
Accounting for multiple climate components when estimating climate change exposure and velocity
Nadeau, Christopher P.; Fuller, Angela K.
2015-01-01
The effect of anthropogenic climate change on organisms will likely be related to climate change exposure and velocity at local and regional scales. However, common methods to estimate climate change exposure and velocity ignore important components of climate that are known to affect the ecology and evolution of organisms.We develop a novel index of climate change (climate overlap) that simultaneously estimates changes in the means, variation and correlation between multiple weather variables. Specifically, we estimate the overlap between multivariate normal probability distributions representing historical and current or projected future climates. We provide methods for estimating the statistical significance of climate overlap values and methods to estimate velocity using climate overlap.We show that climates have changed significantly across 80% of the continental United States in the last 32 years and that much of this change is due to changes in the variation and correlation between weather variables (two statistics that are rarely incorporated into climate change studies). We also show that projected future temperatures are predicted to be locally novel (<1·5% overlap) across most of the global land surface and that exposure is likely to be highest in areas with low historical climate variation. Last, we show that accounting for changes in the variation and correlation between multiple weather variables can dramatically affect velocity estimates; mean velocity estimates in the continental United States were between 3·1 and 19·0 km yr−1when estimated using climate overlap compared to 1·4 km yr−1 when estimated using traditional methods.Our results suggest that accounting for changes in the means, variation and correlation between multiple weather variables can dramatically affect estimates of climate change exposure and velocity. These climate components are known to affect the ecology and evolution of organisms, but are ignored by most measures
Assessing changes in failure probability of dams in a changing climate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mallakpour, I.; AghaKouchak, A.; Moftakhari, H.; Ragno, E.
2017-12-01
Dams are crucial infrastructures and provide resilience against hydrometeorological extremes (e.g., droughts and floods). In 2017, California experienced series of flooding events terminating a 5-year drought, and leading to incidents such as structural failure of Oroville Dam's spillway. Because of large socioeconomic repercussions of such incidents, it is of paramount importance to evaluate dam failure risks associated with projected shifts in the streamflow regime. This becomes even more important as the current procedures for design of hydraulic structures (e.g., dams, bridges, spillways) are based on the so-called stationary assumption. Yet, changes in climate are anticipated to result in changes in statistics of river flow (e.g., more extreme floods) and possibly increasing the failure probability of already aging dams. Here, we examine changes in discharge under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. In this study, we used routed daily streamflow data from ten global climate models (GCMs) in order to investigate possible climate-induced changes in streamflow in northern California. Our results show that while the average flow does not show a significant change, extreme floods are projected to increase in the future. Using the extreme value theory, we estimate changes in the return periods of 50-year and 100-year floods in the current and future climates. Finally, we use the historical and future return periods to quantify changes in failure probability of dams in a warming climate.
How does climate change cause extinction?
Cahill, Abigail E.; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E.; Fisher-Reid, M. Caitlin; Hua, Xia; Karanewsky, Caitlin J.; Yeong Ryu, Hae; Sbeglia, Gena C.; Spagnolo, Fabrizio; Waldron, John B.; Warsi, Omar; Wiens, John J.
2013-01-01
Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to be a major cause of species extinctions in the next 100 years. But what will actually cause these extinctions? For example, will it be limited physiological tolerance to high temperatures, changing biotic interactions or other factors? Here, we systematically review the proximate causes of climate-change related extinctions and their empirical support. We find 136 case studies of climatic impacts that are potentially relevant to this topic. However, only seven identified proximate causes of demonstrated local extinctions due to anthropogenic climate change. Among these seven studies, the proximate causes vary widely. Surprisingly, none show a straightforward relationship between local extinction and limited tolerances to high temperature. Instead, many studies implicate species interactions as an important proximate cause, especially decreases in food availability. We find very similar patterns in studies showing decreases in abundance associated with climate change, and in those studies showing impacts of climatic oscillations. Collectively, these results highlight our disturbingly limited knowledge of this crucial issue but also support the idea that changing species interactions are an important cause of documented population declines and extinctions related to climate change. Finally, we briefly outline general research strategies for identifying these proximate causes in future studies. PMID:23075836
How does climate change cause extinction?
Cahill, Abigail E; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E; Fisher-Reid, M Caitlin; Hua, Xia; Karanewsky, Caitlin J; Ryu, Hae Yeong; Sbeglia, Gena C; Spagnolo, Fabrizio; Waldron, John B; Warsi, Omar; Wiens, John J
2013-01-07
Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to be a major cause of species extinctions in the next 100 years. But what will actually cause these extinctions? For example, will it be limited physiological tolerance to high temperatures, changing biotic interactions or other factors? Here, we systematically review the proximate causes of climate-change related extinctions and their empirical support. We find 136 case studies of climatic impacts that are potentially relevant to this topic. However, only seven identified proximate causes of demonstrated local extinctions due to anthropogenic climate change. Among these seven studies, the proximate causes vary widely. Surprisingly, none show a straightforward relationship between local extinction and limited tolerances to high temperature. Instead, many studies implicate species interactions as an important proximate cause, especially decreases in food availability. We find very similar patterns in studies showing decreases in abundance associated with climate change, and in those studies showing impacts of climatic oscillations. Collectively, these results highlight our disturbingly limited knowledge of this crucial issue but also support the idea that changing species interactions are an important cause of documented population declines and extinctions related to climate change. Finally, we briefly outline general research strategies for identifying these proximate causes in future studies.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Burkholder, K. C.; Mooney, S.
2016-12-01
In the fall of 2013, 24 sophomore students enrolled in a three-course Learning Community entitled "The Ethics and Science of Climate Change." This learning community was comprised of two disciplinary courses in environmental ethics and environmental science as well as a seminar course in which the students designed and delivered climate change education events in the community beyond campus. Students were surveyed prior to and upon completion of the semester using a variant of the Yale Climate Literacy Survey in order to assess their knowledge of and attitudes towards climate change. An analysis of those survey results demonstrated that the non-traditional curriculum resulted in significant improvements that extended beyond disciplinary knowledge of climate change: the student attitudes about climate change and our cultural response to the issues associated with climate change shifted as well. Finally, a third administration of the survey (n=17) plus follow up interviews with 10 of those original students conducted during the students' senior year in 2016 suggest that the changes that the students underwent as sophomores were largely retained.
iSeeChange: Crowdsourced Climate Change Reporting
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Drapkin, J. K.
2012-12-01
Directly engaging local communities about their climate change experiences has never been more important. As weather and climate become more unpredictable, these experiences provide a baseline for community decisions, developing adaptation strategies, and planning for the future. Typically, climate change is documented in a top-down fashion: a scientist has a question, makes observations, and publishes a study; in the best case scenario, a journalist reports on the results; if there's time, a local anecdote is sought to put the results in a familiar context. iSeeChange, a public media project funded by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, reports local environmental change in reverse and turns community questions and conversations with scientists into reported stories that promote opportunities to learn about climate change's affects on the environment and daily life. iSeeChange engages residents of the North Fork Valley region of western Colorado in a multiplatform conversation with scientists about how they perceive their environment is changing through the course of a year - season to season. By bringing together public radio, a mobile reporting and cellular engagement strategy, and a custom crowdsourcing multimedia platform, iSeeChange provides a central access point to collect observations (texts, photographs, voice recordings, and video), organize conversations and interviews with scientists, and report stories online and on air. In this way, iSeeChange is building a dynamic crowdsourced reservoir of information that can increase awareness of environmental problems and potentially disseminate useful information about climate change and successful adaptation strategies. Ultimately, by understanding the community's information needs in a localized question-driven context, the iSeeChange platform presents opportunities for the science community to better understand the value of information and develop better ways to tailor information for communities to use
Response of the tropical Pacific to abrupt climate change 8,200 years ago
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Atwood, A. R.; Battisti, D.; Bitz, C. M.; Sachs, J. P.
2017-12-01
The relatively stable climate of the Holocene epoch was punctuated by a period of large and abrupt climate change ca. 8,200 yr BP, when an outburst of glacial meltwater into the Labrador Sea drove large and abrupt climate changes across the globe. However, little is known about the response of the tropical Pacific to this event. We present the first evidence for large perturbations to the eastern tropical Pacific climate, based on sedimentary biomarker and hydrogen isotopic records from a freshwater lake in the Galápagos Islands. We inform these reconstructions with freshwater forcing simulations performed with the Community Climate System Model version 4. Together, the biomarker records and model simulations provide evidence for a mechanistic link between (1) a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone in the eastern equatorial Pacific and (2) decreased frequency and/or intensity of Eastern Pacific El Niño events during the 8,200 BP event. While climate theory and modeling studies support a southward shift of the ITCZ in response to a weakened AMOC, the dynamical drivers for the observed change in ENSO variability are less well developed. To explore these linkages, we perform simulations with an intermediate complexity model of the tropical Pacific. These results provide valuable insight into the controls of tropical Pacific climate variability and the mechanisms behind the global response to abrupt climate change.
Climate Change in Voyageurs National Park
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Seeley, M. W.
2011-12-01
Voyageurs National Park was created in 1975. This beautifully forested and lake-dominated landscape shared between Minnesota and Canada has few roads and must be seen by water. The islands and Kabetogama Peninsula are part of the Canadian Shield, some of the oldest exposed rock in the world. Voyageurs National Park boasts many unique landscape and climatic attributes, and like most mid-latitude regions of the northern hemisphere climate change is in play there. The statistical signals of change in the climate record are evident from both temperature and precipitation measurements. The history of these measurements goes back over 100 years. Additionally, studies and measurements of the lakes and general ecosystem already show some consequences of these climate changes. Mean temperature measurements are generally warmer than they once were, most notably in the winter season. Minimum temperatures have changed more than maximum temperatures. Precipitation has trended upward, but has also changed in character with greater frequency and contribution from thunderstorm rainfalls across the park. In addition variability in annual precipitation has become more amplified, as the disparity between wet and dry years has grown wider. Some changes are already in evidence in terms of bird migration patterns, earlier lake ice-out dates, warmer water temperatures with more algal blooms, decline in lake clarity, and somewhat longer frost-free seasons. Climate change will continue to have impacts on Voyageurs National Park, and likely other national parks across the nation. Furthermore scientists may find that the study, presentation, and discussion about climate impacts on our national parks is a particularly engaging way to educate citizens and improve climate literacy as we contemplate what adaptation and mitigation policies should be enacted to preserve the quality of our national parks for future generations.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jepma, Catrinus J.; Munasinghe, Mohan; Bolin, Foreword By Bert; Watson, Robert; Bruce, James P.
1998-03-01
There is increasing scientific evidence to suggest that humans are gradually but certainly changing the Earth's climate. In an effort to prevent further damage to the fragile atmosphere, and with the belief that action is required now, the scientific community has been prolific in its dissemination of information on climate change. Inspired by the results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Second Assessment Report, Jepma and Munasinghe set out to create a concise, practical, and compelling approach to climate change issues. They deftly explain the implications of global warming, and the risks involved in attempting to mitigate climate change. They look at how and where to start action, and what organization is needed to be able to implement the changes. This book represents a much needed synopsis of climate change and its real impacts on society. It will be an essential text for climate change researchers, policy analysts, university students studying the environment, and anyone with an interest in climate change issues. A digestible version of the IPCC 1995 Economics Report - written by two of IPCC contributors with a Foreword by two of the editors of Climate Change 1995: Economics of Climate Change: i.e. has unofficial IPCC approval Focusses on policy and economics - important but of marginal interest to scientists, who are more likely to buy this summary than the full IPCC report itself Has case-studies to get the points across Separate study guide workbook will be available, mode of presentation (Web or book) not yet finalized
Climate Change: A Multidisciplinary Approach, Second Edition
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kirk-Davidoff, Daniel
2008-07-01
William Burroughs, who died in November 2007, was a wonderfully clear and evocative writer. Chapter 3 of his last work, Climate Change: A Multidisciplinary Approach, begins with the loveliest four-paragraph description of the general circulation of the Earth's atmosphere I have ever encountered. His writing also shines in his descriptions of the climate record of the past few thousand years, and in his introduction to the measurement of climate change. Unfortunately, the book is marred by inconsistencies in its treatment of climate dynamics, as well as by a number of idiosyncratic choices of emphasis that detract from the book's quality as a general introduction to the science of climate change.
U.S. Navy Task Force Climate Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Miller, T.; McBride, B.; St. John, C.
2011-12-01
In May 2009, the Chief of Naval Operations established Task Force Climate Change (TFCC) to develop Navy policy, plans, and recommendations regarding future investments to adapt to the world's changing climate. With a near-term focus on the changing Arctic ocean and consequent increase in access to the region, TFCC has adopted a science-based approach in collaboration with other U.S. government agencies, international partners, industry, and academia. TFCC has developed two roadmaps that provide 5-year action plans for the Navy to address the Arctic and global climate change. Critical elements of both roadmaps are assessments of: (1) current and projected climate change, (2) resulting impacts to Naval missions and infrastructure, and (3) associated risks of not taking adaptation actions that are operationally, environmentally, and ecologically sustainable. Through TFCC, the Navy acknowledges the link between climate change and national security, and engages in extensive outreach and strategic communication to remain informed on the best climate science and promote public understanding and support regarding the Navy's climate change efforts.
Double Exposure: Photographing Climate Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Arnold, D. P.; Wake, C. P.; Romanow, G. B.
2008-12-01
Double Exposure, Photographing Climate Change, is a fine-art photography exhibition that examines climate change through the prism of melting glaciers. The photographs are twinned shots of glaciers, taken in the mid-20th century by world-renowned photographer Brad Washburn, and in the past two years by Boston journalist/photographer David Arnold. Arnold flew in Washburn's aerial "footprints", replicating stunning black and white photographs, and documenting one irreversible aspect of climate change. Double Exposure is art with a purpose. It is designed to educate, alarm and inspire its audiences. Its power lies in its beauty and the shocking changes it has captured through a camera lens. The interpretive text, guided by numerous experts in the fields of glaciology, global warming and geology, helps convey the message that climate change has already forced permanent changes on the face of our planet. The traveling exhibit premiered at Boston's Museum of Science in April and is now criss-crossing the nation. The exhibit covers changes in the 15 glaciers that have been photographed as well as related information about global warming's effect on the planet today.
Zhang, Zengxin; Chang, Juan; Xu, Chong-Yu; Zhou, Yang; Wu, Yanhong; Chen, Xi; Jiang, Shanshan; Duan, Zheng
2018-09-01
Lakes and vegetation are important factors of the Earth's hydrological cycle and can be called an "indicator" of climate change. In this study, long-term changes of lakes' area and vegetation coverage in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) and their relations to the climate change were analyzed by using Mann-Kendall method during the past 30years. Results showed that: 1) the lakes' area of the QTP increased significantly during the past 30years as a whole, and the increasing rates have been dramatically sped up since the year of 2000. Among them, the area of Ayakekumu Lake has the fastest growing rate of 51.35%, which increased from 618km 2 in the 1980s to 983km 2 in the 2010s; 2) overall, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) increased in the QTP during the past 30years. Above 79% of the area in the QTP showed increasing trend of NDVI before the year of 2000; 3) the air temperature increased significantly, the precipitation increased slightly, and the pan evaporation decreased significantly during the past 30years. The lake area and vegetation coverage changes might be related to the climate change. The shifts in the temporal climate trend occurred around the year 2000 had led the lake area and vegetation coverage increasing. This study is of importance in further understanding the environmental changes under global warming over the QTP. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Climate Change Education for General Education Faculty
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ozbay, G.; Fox-Lykens, R.; Fuoco, M. J.; Phalen, L.; Harcourt, P.; Veron, D. E.; Rogers, M.; Merrill, J.
2016-12-01
As MADE-CLEAR scientists, our ultimate goal is to inform the public about climate change through education. Education will provide citizens with important tools for adapting and coping against climate change through the understanding of the cause and effects of climate change, and the role they play in counteracting these effects. MADE-CLEAR is connecting educators with resources such as lesson plans and hands-on activities so they can easily incorporate climate change into their curriculum. This past year Delaware State University held workshops for Chemistry and Math faculty to provide information and resources to help integrate climate change education into their classes. We presented them with information on climate change and demonstrated several laboratory activities that would be applicable to their classes. Such activities included a sea level rise graphing exercise, ocean acidification pH demonstration, ocean acidification's effect on organism's demonstration, carbon dioxide variability and heat trapping gas simulation. The goals of the workshops are to implement a multidisciplinary approach in climate change education. Workshops are prepared hands-on heavy followed by the lectures and video resources. Pre- and post-workshop assessment questions on the workshop contents are provided to monitor faculty understanding of the climate change content. In doing so, we aim to improve climate literacy in our higher education students.
Cinematic climate change, a promising perspective on climate change communication.
Sakellari, Maria
2015-10-01
Previous research findings display that after having seen popular climate change films, people became more concerned, more motivated and more aware of climate change, but changes in behaviors were short-term. This article performs a meta-analysis of three popular climate change films, The Day after Tomorrow (2005), An Inconvenient Truth (2006), and The Age of Stupid (2009), drawing on research in social psychology, human agency, and media effect theory in order to formulate a rationale about how mass media communication shapes our everyday life experience. This article highlights the factors with which science blends in the reception of the three climate change films and expands the range of options considered in order to encourage people to engage in climate change mitigation actions. © The Author(s) 2014.
Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation
Morelli, Toni L.; Jackson, Stephen T.
2016-01-01
Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.
Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation.
Morelli, Toni Lyn; Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Dulen, Deanna M; Ebersole, Joseph L; Jackson, Stephen T; Lundquist, Jessica D; Millar, Constance I; Maher, Sean P; Monahan, William B; Nydick, Koren R; Redmond, Kelly T; Sawyer, Sarah C; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R
2016-01-01
Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.
Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation
Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Dulen, Deanna M.; Ebersole, Joseph L.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Millar, Constance I.; Maher, Sean P.; Monahan, William B.; Nydick, Koren R.; Redmond, Kelly T.; Sawyer, Sarah C.; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R.
2016-01-01
Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088
Corn, P.S.
2005-01-01
Amphibian life histories are exceedingly sensitive to temperature and precipitation, and there is good evidence that recent climate change has already resulted in a shift to breeding earlier in the year for some species. There are also suggestions that the recent increase in the occurrence of El Niño events has caused declines of anurans in Central America and is linked to elevated mortality of amphibian embryos in the northwestern United States. However, evidence linking amphibian declines in Central America to climate relies solely on correlations, and the mechanisms underlying the declines are not understood. Connections between embryo mortality and declines in abundance have not been demonstrated. Analyses of existing data have generally failed to find a link between climate and amphibian declines. It is likely, however, that future climate change will cause further declines of some amphibian species. Reduced soil moisture could reduce prey species and eliminate habitat. Reduced snowfall and increased summer evaporation could have dramatic effects on the duration or occurrence of seasonal wetlands, which are primary habitat for many species of amphibians. Climate change may be a relatively minor cause of current amphibian declines, but it may be the biggest future challenge to the persistence of many species
Impact of climate change and human activity on soil landscapes over the past 12,300 years.
Rothacker, Leo; Dosseto, Anthony; Francke, Alexander; Chivas, Allan R; Vigier, Nathalie; Kotarba-Morley, Anna M; Menozzi, Davide
2018-01-10
Soils are key to ecosystems and human societies, and their critical importance requires a better understanding of how they evolve through time. However, identifying the role of natural climate change versus human activity (e.g. agriculture) on soil evolution is difficult. Here we show that for most of the past 12,300 years soil erosion and development were impacted differently by natural climate variability, as recorded by sediments deposited in Lake Dojran (Macedonia/Greece): short-lived ( < 1,000 years) climatic shifts had no effect on soil development but impacted soil erosion. This decoupling disappeared between 3,500 and 3,100 years ago, when the sedimentary record suggests an unprecedented erosion event associated with the development of agriculture in the region. Our results show unambiguously how differently soils evolved under natural climate variability (between 12,300 and 3,500 years ago) and later in response to intensifying human impact. The transition from natural to anthropogenic landscape started just before, or at, the onset of the Greek 'Dark Ages' (~3,200 cal yr BP). This could represent the earliest recorded sign of a negative feedback between civilization and environmental impact, where the development of agriculture impacted soil resources, which in turn resulted in a slowdown of civilization expansion.
Conceptual Model of Climate Change Impacts at LANL
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Dewart, Jean Marie
Goal 9 of the LANL FY15 Site Sustainability Plan (LANL 2014a) addresses Climate Change Adaptation. As part of Goal 9, the plan reviews many of the individual programs the Laboratory has initiated over the past 20 years to address climate change impacts to LANL (e.g. Wildland Fire Management Plan, Forest Management Plan, etc.). However, at that time, LANL did not yet have a comprehensive approach to climate change adaptation. To fill this gap, the FY15 Work Plan for the LANL Long Term Strategy for Environmental Stewardship and Sustainability (LANL 2015) included a goal of (1) establishing a comprehensive conceptual modelmore » of climate change impacts at LANL and (2) establishing specific climate change indices to measure climate change and impacts at Los Alamos. Establishing a conceptual model of climate change impacts will demonstrate that the Laboratory is addressing climate change impacts in a comprehensive manner. This paper fulfills the requirement of goal 1. The establishment of specific indices of climate change at Los Alamos (goal 2), will improve our ability to determine climate change vulnerabilities and assess risk. Future work will include prioritizing risks, evaluating options/technologies/costs, and where appropriate, taking actions. To develop a comprehensive conceptual model of climate change impacts, we selected the framework provided in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Resilience Toolkit (http://toolkit.climate.gov/).« less
After twenty years of research on soil carbon and climate change, what's left to learn?
Much effort over the past 230 years has been directed at investigating the roles that soils and specifically soil carbon play in the global carbon cycle and in climate change. As we begin another new decade, we ask whether there is anything left to learn on this topic? Do we kn...
Comprehension of climate change and environmental attitudes across the lifespan.
Degen, C; Kettner, S E; Fischer, H; Lohse, J; Funke, J; Schwieren, C; Goeschl, T; Schröder, J
2014-08-01
Given the coincidence of the demographic change and climate change in the upcoming decades the aging voter gains increasing importance in climate change mitigation and adaptation processes. It is generally assumed that information status and comprehension of complex processes underlying climate change are prerequisites for adopting pro-environmental attitudes and taking pro-environmental actions. In a cross-sectional study, we investigated in how far (1) environmental knowledge and comprehension of feedback processes underlying climate change and (2) pro-environmental attitudes change as a function of age. Our sample consisted of 92 participants aged 25-75 years (mean age 49.4 years, SD 17.0). Age was negatively related to comprehension of system structures inherent to climate change, but positively associated with level of fear of consequences and anxiousness towards climate change. No significant relations were found between environmental knowledge and pro-environmental attitude. These results indicate that, albeit understanding of relevant structures of the climate system is less present in older age, age is not a limiting factor for being engaged in the complex dilemma of climate change. Results bear implications for the communication of climate change and pro-environmental actions in aging societies.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lunt, D. J.; Farnsworth, A.; Bragg, F.
2016-12-01
The climate of the Earth is ultimately controlled by tectonic and solar forcings, with the occasional meteorite thrown in for good measure. A third forcing of greenhouse gases can also be considered if the carbon cycle is considered as external to the system. In this case, the tectonic forcing reduces to a paleogeographic forcing (through changes in atmospheric and ocean circulation related to changes in mountain height/position and gateway/bathymetry changes). There is no reason to expect any link between this paleogeographic forcing and the solar forcing. However, as we show here, a suite of climate model simulations through the last 300 million years show remarkably constant global mean temperature under constant greenhouse gas forcing, despite a varying solar luminosity. We attribute this to a fortuitous balancing of the solar forcing with paleogeographic forcing, related to the continental breakup of Pangea. This provides an alternative hypothesis to the existing paradigm in which solar luminosity is balanced by greenhouse gas forcing through weathering-related feedbacks.
Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
White, James W. C.; Alley, Richard B.; Archer, David E.; Barnosky, Anthony D.; Dunlea, Edward; Foley, Jonathan; Fu, Rong; Holland, Marika M.; Lozier, M. Susan; Schmitt, Johanna; Smith, Laurence C.; Sugihara, George; Thompson, David W. J.; Weaver, Andrew J.; Wofsy, Steven C.
2014-05-01
Levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere are exceeding levels recorded in the past millions of years, and thus climate is being forced beyond the range of the recent geological era. Lacking concerted action by the world's nations, it is clear that the future climate will be warmer, sea levels will rise, global rainfall patterns will change, and ecosystems will be altered. However, there is still uncertainty about how we will arrive at that future climate state. Although many projections of future climatic conditions have predicted steadily changing conditions giving the impression that communities have time to gradually adapt, the scientific community has been paying increasing attention to the possibility that at least some changes will be abrupt, perhaps crossing a threshold or "tipping point" to change so quickly that there will be little time to react. This presentation will synopsize the new US National Research Council Report, Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises, highlighting areas of increased and decreased concern, as well as areas of new concern. Emphasis is placed on not only abrupt change in physical climate, but on abrupt changes in human and natural systems that can occur as a result of a slowly changing climate. The report calls for action now on an abrupt change early warning system (ACEWS) if societies are to be resilient to climate change.
Undocumented migration in response to climate change
Riosmena, Fernando; Hunter, Lori M.; Runfola, Daniel M.
2016-01-01
In the face of climate change induced economic uncertainty, households may employ migration as an adaptation strategy to diversify their livelihood portfolio through remittances. However, it is unclear whether such climate migration will be documented or undocumented. In this study we combine detailed migration histories with daily temperature and precipitation information for 214 weather stations to investigate whether climate change more strongly impacts undocumented or documented migration from 68 rural Mexican municipalities to the U.S. during the years 1986–1999. We employ two measures of climate change, the warm spell duration index (WSDI) and the precipitation during extremely wet days (R99PTOT). Results from multi-level event-history models demonstrate that climate-related international migration from rural Mexico was predominantly undocumented. We conclude that programs to facilitate climate change adaptation in rural Mexico may be more effective in reducing undocumented border crossings than increased border fortification. PMID:27570840
Undocumented migration in response to climate change.
Nawrotzki, Raphael J; Riosmena, Fernando; Hunter, Lori M; Runfola, Daniel M
In the face of climate change induced economic uncertainty, households may employ migration as an adaptation strategy to diversify their livelihood portfolio through remittances. However, it is unclear whether such climate migration will be documented or undocumented. In this study we combine detailed migration histories with daily temperature and precipitation information for 214 weather stations to investigate whether climate change more strongly impacts undocumented or documented migration from 68 rural Mexican municipalities to the U.S. during the years 1986-1999. We employ two measures of climate change, the warm spell duration index ( WSDI ) and the precipitation during extremely wet days ( R99PTOT ). Results from multi-level event-history models demonstrate that climate-related international migration from rural Mexico was predominantly undocumented. We conclude that programs to facilitate climate change adaptation in rural Mexico may be more effective in reducing undocumented border crossings than increased border fortification.
Ecological response to global climatic change
Malanson, G.P.; Butler, D.R.; Walsh, S. J.; Janelle, Donald G.; Warf, Barney; Hansen, Kathy
2004-01-01
Climate change and ecological change go hand in hand. Because we value our ecological environment, any change has the potential to be a problem. Geographers have been drawn to this challenge, and have been successful in addressing it, because the primary ecological response to climate changes in the past — the waxing and waning of the great ice sheets over the past 2 million years – was the changing geographic range of the biota. Plants and animals changed their location. Geographers have been deeply involved in documenting the changing biota of the past, and today we are called upon to help assess the possible responses to ongoing and future climatic change and, thus, their impacts. Assessing the potential responses is important for policy makers to judge the outcomes of action or inaction and also sets the stage for preparation for and mitigation of change.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Schneider, Stephen H.
1989-01-01
Discusses the global change of climate. Presents the trend of climate change with graphs. Describes mathematical climate models including expressions for the interacting components of the ocean-atmosphere system and equations representing the basic physical laws governing their behavior. Provides three possible responses on the change. (YP)
Global Climate Change: Federal Research on Possible Human Health Effects
2006-02-10
unrelated to climate change per se. This report does not address the underlying question of climate change itself. Rather, it identifies the array of...climate-relevant human health research and discusses the interconnections. Approximately $57 million each year since FY2005 supports climate change research...infectious diseases. Three conclusions are common to several studies on possible health effects of climate change : the infirm, the elderly, and the poor
A Climate Change Course for Undergraduate Students
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Nam, Y.; Ito, E.
2011-01-01
For the past 10 years, a climate change course has been offered in a large Midwest university. This course has been focusing on improving college students' scientific knowledge of climate change and human interactions using historical evidence as well as improving their information literacy in science through a course project that requires…
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rango, A.; Crimmins, M.; Elias, E.; Steele, C. M.; Weiss, J. L.
2015-12-01
The mission of the USDA Southwest Regional Climate Hub is to provide farmers, ranchers and forest land owners and managers with information and resources to cope with the impacts of climate change. As such, a clear understanding of landowner needs for weather and climate data and their attitudes about climate change is required. Here we present a summary of results from 17 peer-reviewed articles on studies pertaining to landowner needs and attitudes towards climate change adaptation and mitigation that span much of the continental U.S. and ideally represent a cross-section of different geographies. In general, approximately 75% of landowners and farm advisors believe climate change is occurring, but disagree on the human contribution. Studies found that most farmers were supportive of adaptation responses, but fewer endorsed farm-based greenhouse gas reduction mitigation strategies. Adaptation is often driven by local concerns and requires locally specific strategies. Perceiving weather variability increased belief in human-caused climate change. Presently farmers and ranchers rely on past experience and short-range forecasts (weeks to seasons) whereas some foresters are requesting long-term predictions on the order of years to decades. Foresters indicated that most of them (74%) are presently unable to find needed long-term information. We augment peer-reviewed literature with observations from landowner workshops conducted in Nevada and Arizona during 2014, the first year of Climate Hub operation. To better collect information about climate change needs and attitudes of farmers, ranchers and foresters across the globe, we created a Climate Change Attitudes collection in JournalMap (https://journalmap.org/usda-southwest-regional-climate-hub/climate-change-attitudes). Users anywhere can add articles to this collection, ultimately generating a comprehensive spatial resource in support of adaptation and mitigation efforts on working lands.
Our Globally Changing Climate. Chapter 1
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wuebbles, D. J.; Easterling, D. R.; Hayhoe, K.; Knutson, T.; Kopp, R. E.; Kossin, J. P.; Kunkel, K. E.; LeGrande, A. N.; Mears, C.; Sweet, W. V.;
2017-01-01
Since the Third U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA3) was published in May 2014, new observations along multiple lines of evidence have strengthened the conclusion that Earth's climate is changing at a pace and in a pattern not explainable by natural influences. While this report focuses especially on observed and projected future changes for the United States, it is important to understand those changes in the global context (this chapter). The world has warmed over the last 150 years, especially over the last six decades, and that warming has triggered many other changes to Earth's climate. Evidence for a changing climate abounds, from the top of the atmosphere to the depths of the oceans. Thousands of studies conducted by tens of thousands of scientists around the world have documented changes in surface, atmospheric, and oceanic temperatures; melting glaciers; disappearing snow cover; shrinking sea ice; rising sea level; and an increase in atmospheric water vapor. Rainfall patterns and storms are changing, and the occurrence of droughts is shifting.
Climatic change controls productivity variation in global grasslands
Gao, Qingzhu; Zhu, Wenquan; Schwartz, Mark W.; Ganjurjav, Hasbagan; Wan, Yunfan; Qin, Xiaobo; Ma, Xin; Williamson, Matthew A.; Li, Yue
2016-01-01
Detection and identification of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems have been core issues in climate change research in recent years. In this study, we compared average annual values of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with theoretical net primary productivity (NPP) values based on temperature and precipitation to determine the effect of historic climate change on global grassland productivity from 1982 to 2011. Comparison of trends in actual productivity (NDVI) with climate-induced potential productivity showed that the trends in average productivity in nearly 40% of global grassland areas have been significantly affected by climate change. The contribution of climate change to variability in grassland productivity was 15.2–71.2% during 1982–2011. Climate change contributed significantly to long-term trends in grassland productivity mainly in North America, central Eurasia, central Africa, and Oceania; these regions will be more sensitive to future climate change impacts. The impacts of climate change on variability in grassland productivity were greater in the Western Hemisphere than the Eastern Hemisphere. Confirmation of the observed trends requires long-term controlled experiments and multi-model ensembles to reduce uncertainties and explain mechanisms. PMID:27243565
The fingerprints of global climate change on insect populations.
Boggs, Carol L
2016-10-01
Synthesizing papers from the last two years, I examined generalizations about the fingerprints of climate change on insects' population dynamics and phenology. Recent work shows that populations can differ in response to changes in climate means and variances. The part of the thermal niche occupied by an insect population, voltinism, plasticity and adaptation to weather perturbations, and interactions with other species can all exacerbate or mitigate responses to climate change. Likewise, land use change or agricultural practices can affect responses to climate change. Nonetheless, our knowledge of effects of climate change is still biased by organism and geographic region, and to some extent by scale of climate parameter. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Description of Changes in Climatic Indices in USA over 25 Years (1989 – 2013)
The spatial distribution of long-term changes in climatic factors and its relation with vegetation cover, human health, hydrology and many other ecosystem processes help to identify the consequences of climatic factors changes. In recent studies, the significant changes of select...
Coupled Ethical-Epistemic Analysis of Climate Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vezer, M.
2015-12-01
Are there inherent limitations to what we can know about how the climate will change in the years ahead? How can we use what is known about the future climate in a way that promotes ethical decision-making? These questions call for urgent attention because important policy decisions need to be made in order to prepare for climate change in North America and around the world. While the science of climate change is central to this line of inquiry, the fields of epistemology, moral, political and environmental philosophy may provide insights on how these issues should be addressed. Detailing the relationship between evidential and ethical dimensions of climate change, this research aims to improve our understanding of the interconnections among several lines of inquiry and to develop solutions to problems of decision-making under conditions of scientific uncertainty.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Patton, S. L.; Takle, E. S.; Passe, U.; Kalvelage, K.
2013-12-01
Current simulations of building energy consumption use weather input files based on the past thirty years of climate observations. These 20th century climate conditions may be inadequate when designing buildings meant to function well into the 21st century. An alternative is using model projections of climate change to estimate future risk to the built environment. In this study, model-projected changes in climate were combined with existing typical meteorological year data to create future typical meteorological year data. These data were then formatted for use in EnergyPlus simulation software to evaluate their potential impact on commercial building energy consumption. The modeled climate data were taken from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). NARCCAP uses results of global climate models to drive regional climate models, also known as dynamical downscaling. This downscaling gives higher resolution results over specific locations, and the multiple global/regional climate model combinations provide a unique opportunity to quantify the uncertainty of climate change projections and their impacts. Our results show a projected decrease in heating energy consumption and a projected increase in cooling energy consumption for nine locations across the United States for all model combinations. Warmer locations may expect a decrease in heating load of around 30% to 45% and an increase in cooling load of around 25% to 35%. Colder locations may expect a decrease in heating load of around 15% to 25% and an increase in cooling load of around 40% to 70%. The change in net energy consumption is determined by the balance between the magnitudes of heating change and cooling change. Net energy consumption is projected to increase by an average of 5% for lower-latitude locations and decrease by an average of 5% for higher-latitude locations. With these projected annual and seasonal changes presenting strong evidence for the unsuitable nature of
Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation ...
The concept of refugia has long been studied from theoretical and paleontological perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, locations that may be unusually buffered from climate change effects so as to increase persistence of valued resources. Here we distinguish between paleoecological and contemporary viewpoints, characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia, summarize the process of identifying and mapping them, and delineate how refugia can fit into the existing framework of natural resource management. We also suggest three primary courses of action at these sites: prioritization, protection, and propagation. Although not a panacea, managing climate change refugia can be an important adaptation option for conserving valuable resources in the face of ongoing and future climate change. “In a nutshell” (100 words) • Climate change refugia are defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change, enabling persistence of valued physical, ecological, and cultural resources. • Refugia can be incorporated as key components of a climate adaptation strategy because their prioritization by management may enable their associated resources to persist locally and eventually spread to future suitable habitat. • Steps for
Increased sensitivity to climate change in disturbed ecosystems.
Kröel-Dulay, György; Ransijn, Johannes; Schmidt, Inger Kappel; Beier, Claus; De Angelis, Paolo; de Dato, Giovanbattista; Dukes, Jeffrey S; Emmett, Bridget; Estiarte, Marc; Garadnai, János; Kongstad, Jane; Kovács-Láng, Edit; Larsen, Klaus Steenberg; Liberati, Dario; Ogaya, Romà; Riis-Nielsen, Torben; Smith, Andrew R; Sowerby, Alwyn; Tietema, Albert; Penuelas, Josep
2015-03-24
Human domination of the biosphere includes changes to disturbance regimes, which push many ecosystems towards early-successional states. Ecological theory predicts that early-successional ecosystems are more sensitive to perturbations than mature systems, but little evidence supports this relationship for the perturbation of climate change. Here we show that vegetation (abundance, species richness and species composition) across seven European shrublands is quite resistant to moderate experimental warming and drought, and responsiveness is associated with the dynamic state of the ecosystem, with recently disturbed sites responding to treatments. Furthermore, most of these responses are not rapid (2-5 years) but emerge over a longer term (7-14 years). These results suggest that successional state influences the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate change, and that ecosystems recovering from disturbances may be sensitive to even modest climatic changes. A research bias towards undisturbed ecosystems might thus lead to an underestimation of the impacts of climate change.
The climate change-infectious disease nexus: is it time for climate change syndemics?
Heffernan, Claire
2013-12-01
Conceptualizing climate as a distinct variable limits our understanding of the synergies and interactions between climate change and the range of abiotic and biotic factors, which influence animal health. Frameworks such as eco-epidemiology and the epi-systems approach, while more holistic, view climate and climate change as one of many discreet drivers of disease. Here, I argue for a new paradigmatic framework: climate-change syndemics. Climate-change syndemics begins from the assumption that climate change is one of many potential influences on infectious disease processes, but crucially is unlikely to act independently or in isolation; and as such, it is the inter-relationship between factors that take primacy in explorations of infectious disease and climate change. Equally importantly, as climate change will impact a wide range of diseases, the frame of analysis is at the collective rather than individual level (for both human and animal infectious disease) across populations.
Abrupt climate change and extinction events
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Crowley, Thomas J.
1988-01-01
There is a growing body of theoretical and empirical support for the concept of instabilities in the climate system, and indications that abrupt climate change may in some cases contribute to abrupt extinctions. Theoretical indications of instabilities can be found in a broad spectrum of climate models (energy balance models, a thermohaline model of deep-water circulation, atmospheric general circulation models, and coupled ocean-atmosphere models). Abrupt transitions can be of several types and affect the environment in different ways. There is increasing evidence for abrupt climate change in the geologic record and involves both interglacial-glacial scale transitions and the longer-term evolution of climate over the last 100 million years. Records from the Cenozoic clearly show that the long-term trend is characterized by numerous abrupt steps where the system appears to be rapidly moving to a new equilibrium state. The long-term trend probably is due to changes associated with plate tectonic processes, but the abrupt steps most likely reflect instabilities in the climate system as the slowly changing boundary conditions caused the climate to reach some threshold critical point. A more detailed analysis of abrupt steps comes from high-resolution studies of glacial-interglacial fluctuations in the Pleistocene. Comparison of climate transitions with the extinction record indicates that many climate and biotic transitions coincide. The Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction is not a candidate for an extinction event due to instabilities in the climate system. It is quite possible that more detailed comparisons and analysis will indicate some flaws in the climate instability-extinction hypothesis, but at present it appears to be a viable candidate as an alternate mechanism for causing abrupt environmental changes and extinctions.
Olive flowering as an indicator of local climatic changes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Orlandi, F.; Ruga, L.; Romano, B.; Fornaciari, M.
2005-07-01
In recent years many studies on climate change and its impacts have been published. In this investigation the flowering of the olive tree (Olea europaea L.) in central Italy was related to climate and its usefulness as a bio-indicator for climatic change has been studied.
Lindsey Rustad; John Campbell; Jeffrey S. Dukes; Thomas Huntington; Kathy Fallon Lambert; Jacqueline Mohan; Nicholas Rodenhouse
2012-01-01
Decades of study on climatic change and its direct and indirect effects on forest ecosystems provide important insights for forest science, management, and policy. A synthesis of recent research from the northeastern United States and eastern Canada shows that the climate of the region has become warmer and wetter over the past 100 years and that there are more extreme...
Climate Change Schools Project...
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
McKinzey, Krista
2010-01-01
This article features the award-winning Climate Change Schools Project which aims to: (1) help schools to embed climate change throughout the national curriculum; and (2) showcase schools as "beacons" for climate change teaching, learning, and positive action in their local communities. Operating since 2007, the Climate Change Schools…
Modelling climate change and malaria transmission.
Parham, Paul E; Michael, Edwin
2010-01-01
The impact of climate change on human health has received increasing attention in recent years, with potential impacts due to vector-borne diseases only now beginning to be understood. As the most severe vector-borne disease, with one million deaths globally in 2006, malaria is thought most likely to be affected by changes in climate variables due to the sensitivity of its transmission dynamics to environmental conditions. While considerable research has been carried out using statistical models to better assess the relationship between changes in environmental variables and malaria incidence, less progress has been made on developing process-based climate-driven mathematical models with greater explanatory power. Here, we develop a simple model of malaria transmission linked to climate which permits useful insights into the sensitivity of disease transmission to changes in rainfall and temperature variables. Both the impact of changes in the mean values of these key external variables and importantly temporal variation in these values are explored. We show that the development and analysis of such dynamic climate-driven transmission models will be crucial to understanding the rate at which P. falciparum and P. vivax may either infect, expand into or go extinct in populations as local environmental conditions change. Malaria becomes endemic in a population when the basic reproduction number R0 is greater than unity and we identify an optimum climate-driven transmission window for the disease, thus providing a useful indicator for determing how transmission risk may change as climate changes. Overall, our results indicate that considerable work is required to better understand ways in which global malaria incidence and distribution may alter with climate change. In particular, we show that the roles of seasonality, stochasticity and variability in environmental variables, as well as ultimately anthropogenic effects, require further study. The work presented here
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Winckler, G.; Pfirman, S. L.; Hays, J. D.; Schlosser, P.; Ting, M.
2011-12-01
Responding to climate change challenges in the near and far future, will require a wide range of knowledge, skills and a sense of the complexities involved. Since 1995, Columbia University and Barnard College have offered an undergraduate class that strives to provide students with some of these skills. The 'Climate System' course is a component of the three-part 'Earth Environmental Systems' series and provides the fundamentals needed for understanding the Earth's climate system and its variability. Being designed both for science majors and non-science majors, the emphasis of the course is on basic physical explanations, rather than mathematical derivations of the laws that govern the climate system. The course includes lectures, labs and discussion. Laboratory exercises primarily explore the climate system using global datasets, augmented by hands-on activities. Course materials are available for public use at http://eesc.columbia.edu/courses/ees/climate/camel_modules/ and http://ncseonline.org/climate/cms.cfm?id=3783. In this presentation we discuss the experiences, challenges and future demands of conveying the science of the Earth's Climate System and the risks facing the planet to a wide spectrum of undergraduate students, many of them without a background in the sciences. Using evaluation data we reflect how the course, the students, and the faculty have evolved over the past 16 years as the earth warmed, pressures for adaptation planning and mitigation measures increased, and public discourse became increasingly polarized.
Jezkova, Tereza
2016-01-01
Climate change may soon threaten much of global biodiversity. A critical question is: can species undergo niche shifts of sufficient speed and magnitude to persist within their current geographic ranges? Here, we analyse niche shifts among populations within 56 plant and animal species using time-calibrated trees from phylogeographic studies. Across 266 phylogeographic groups analysed, rates of niche change were much slower than rates of projected climate change (mean difference > 200 000-fold for temperature variables). Furthermore, the absolute niche divergence among populations was typically lower than the magnitude of projected climate change over the next approximately 55 years for relevant variables, suggesting the amount of change needed to persist may often be too great, even if these niche shifts were instantaneous. Rates were broadly similar between plants and animals, but especially rapid in some arthropods, birds and mammals. Rates for temperature variables were lower at lower latitudes, further suggesting that tropical species may be especially vulnerable to climate change. PMID:27881748
Jezkova, Tereza; Wiens, John J
2016-11-30
Climate change may soon threaten much of global biodiversity. A critical question is: can species undergo niche shifts of sufficient speed and magnitude to persist within their current geographic ranges? Here, we analyse niche shifts among populations within 56 plant and animal species using time-calibrated trees from phylogeographic studies. Across 266 phylogeographic groups analysed, rates of niche change were much slower than rates of projected climate change (mean difference > 200 000-fold for temperature variables). Furthermore, the absolute niche divergence among populations was typically lower than the magnitude of projected climate change over the next approximately 55 years for relevant variables, suggesting the amount of change needed to persist may often be too great, even if these niche shifts were instantaneous. Rates were broadly similar between plants and animals, but especially rapid in some arthropods, birds and mammals. Rates for temperature variables were lower at lower latitudes, further suggesting that tropical species may be especially vulnerable to climate change. © 2016 The Author(s).
Vegetation zones in changing climate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Belda, Michal; Holtanova, Eva; Halenka, Tomas; Kalvova, Jaroslava
2017-04-01
of individual types, in the continental scale some shifts of boundaries between the selected types can be studied as well providing the information on climate change signal. The shift of the boundary between the boreal zone and continental temperate zone to the north is clearly seen in most simulations as well as eastern move of the boundary of the maritime and continental type of temperate zone. However, there can be quite clear problem with model biases in climate types association. When analysing climate types in Europe and their shifts under climate change using Köppen-Trewartha classification (KTC), for the temperate climate type there are subtypes defined following the continentality patterns, and we can see their generally meridionally located divide across Europe shifted to the east. There is a question whether this is realistic or rather due to the simplistic condition in KTC following the winter minimum temperature, while other continentality indices consider rather the amplitude of temperature during the year. This leads us to connect our analysis of climate change effects using climate classification to the more detailed analysis of continentality patterns development in Europe to provide better insight on the climate regimes and to verify the continentality conditions, their definitions and climate change effects on them. The comparison of several selected continentality indices is shown.
Bahamians and Climate Change: An Analysis of Risk Perception and Climate Change Literacy
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Neely, R.; Owens, M. A.
2011-12-01
The Commonwealth of the Bahamas is forecasted to be adversely impacted by the effects of climate change. This presentation will present the results of an assessment of the risk perception toward climate change and climate change literacy among Bahamians. 499 Bahamians from the health care and hospitality industries participated in surveys and/or focus groups and three (3) areas of climate change literacy (attitude, behavior and knowledge) were analyzed as well as risk perception. In general, 1) Bahamians demonstrated an elementary understanding of the underlying causes of climate change, 2) possessed positive attitudes toward adopting new climate change policies, and 3) are already adjusting their behaviors in light of the current predictions. This research also resulted in the development of a model of the relationships between the climate literacy subscales (attitude, behavior and knowledge) and risk perception. This study also examined information sources and their impacts on climate change literacy. As the source of information is important in assessing the quality of the information, participants also identified the source(s) of most of their climate change information. The TV news was cited as the most common source for climate change information among Bahamians. As there is limited active research generating specific climate change information in the Bahamas, all the information Bahamians receive as it pertains to climate change is generated abroad. As a result, Bahamians must decipher through to make sense of it on an individual level. From the focus groups, many of the participants have been able to view possible changes through a cultural lens and are willing to make adjustments to maintain the uniqueness and viability of the Bahamas and to preserve it for generations. Continued study of Bahamians' climate change literacy will inform adaption and mitigation policy as well as individual action.
Atmospheric Composition Change: Climate-Chemistry Interactions
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Isaksen, I.S.A.; Granier, C.; Myhre, G.; Bernsten, T. K.; Dalsoren, S. B.; Gauss, S.; Klimont, Z.; Benestad, R.; Bousquet, P.; Collins, W.;
2011-01-01
concentration through reduced biospheric uptake. During the last 510 years, new observational data have been made available and used for model validation and the study of atmospheric processes. Although there are significant uncertainties in the modelling of composition changes, access to new observational data has improved modelling capability. Emission scenarios for the coming decades have a large uncertainty range, in particular with respect to regional trends, leading to a significant uncertainty range in estimated regional composition changes and climate impact.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
A, Duo; Zhao, Wenji; Qu, Xinyuan; Jing, Ran; Xiong, Kai
2016-12-01
Global climate change has led to significant vegetation changes in the past half century. North China Plain, the most important grain production base of china, is undergoing a process of prominent warming and drying. The vegetation coverage, which is used to monitor vegetation change, can respond to climate change (temperature and precipitation). In this study, GIMMS (Global Inventory Modelling and Mapping Studies)-NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data, MODIS (Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) - NDVI data and climate data, during 1981-2013, were used to investigate the spatial distribution and changes of vegetation. The relationship between climate and vegetation on different spatial (agriculture, forest and grassland) and temporal (yearly, decadal and monthly) scales were also analyzed in North China Plain. (1) It was found that temperature exhibiting a slight increase trend (0.20 °C/10a, P < 0.01). This may be due to the disappearance of 0 °C isotherm, the rise of spring temperature. At the same time, precipitation showed a significant reduction trend (-1.75 mm/10a, P > 0.05). The climate mutation period was during 1991-1994. (2) Vegetation coverage slight increase was observed in the 55% of total study area, with a change rate of 0.00039/10a. Human activities may not only accelerate the changes of the vegetation coverage, but also c effect to the rate of these changes. (3) Overall, the correlation between the vegetation coverage and climatic factor is higher in monthly scale than yearly scale. The correlation analysis between vegetation coverage and climate changes showed that annual vegetation coverage was better correlatend with precipitation in grassland biome; but it showed a better correlated with temperature i the agriculture biome and forest biome. In addition, the vegetation coverage had sensitive time-effect respond to precipitation. (4) The vegetation coverage showed the same increasing trend before and after the climatic
Implication of Agricultural Land Use Change on Regional Climate Projection
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, G.; Ahmed, K. F.; You, L.
2015-12-01
Agricultural land use plays an important role in land-atmosphere interaction. Agricultural activity is one of the most important processes driving human-induced land use land cover change (LULCC) in a region. In addition to future socioeconomic changes, climate-induced changes in crop yield represent another important factor shaping agricultural land use. In feedback, the resulting LULCC influences the direction and magnitude of global, regional and local climate change by altering Earth's radiative equilibrium. Therefore, assessment of climate change impact on future agricultural land use and its feedback is of great importance in climate change study. In this study, to evaluate the feedback of projected land use changes to the regional climate in West Africa, we employed an asynchronous coupling between a regional climate model (RegCM) and a prototype land use projection model (LandPro). The LandPro model, which was developed to project the future change in agricultural land use and the resulting shift in natural vegetation in West Africa, is a spatially explicit model that can account for both climate and socioeconomic changes in projecting future land use changes. In the asynchronously coupled modeling framework, LandPro was run for every five years during the period of 2005-2050 accounting for climate-induced change in crop yield and socioeconomic changes to project the land use pattern by the mid-21st century. Climate data at 0.5˚ was derived from RegCM to drive the crop model DSSAT for each of the five-year periods to simulate crop yields, which was then provided as input data to LandPro. Subsequently, the land use land cover map required to run RegCM was updated every five years using the outputs from the LandPro simulations. Results from the coupled model simulations improve the understanding of climate change impact on future land use and the resulting feedback to regional climate.
Has climate change shifted US maize planting times?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Butler, E.; Stine, A.; Huybers, P.
2012-12-01
Global warming has been accompanied by an earlier onset of spring phenological events across a range of ecosystems. However, the degree to which humans have adapted planting schedules to a changing climate remains an open question; the leading hypotheses for earlier planting are improved hardiness of cultivars and farming equipment. Here we examine the relationship between historical temperature and precipitation from 549 weather stations from the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) with planting schedules from 20 states in the United States Department of Agriculture/National Agriculture Statistics Service (USDA/NASS) database. We construct an empirical model to relate yearly weather conditions to predict planting dates and compare this to the spatial distribution of climate conditions and mean planting times. Evidence for a relationship between climate and planting schedules indicates that planting schedules for US maize have been adapted to yearly variations and overall changes in climatology. As one might expect, hotter temperatures lead to earlier plantings while greater precipitation leads to later planting. These findings serve to indicate extant adaptation between US farmers and climate change, and will aid in forecasting future shifts to planting schedules as climate continues to change. Furthermore, the statistical model should also be useful for estimating planting times for states and years for which records do not otherwise exist.
Climate of the past 2000 years in IPCC AR5 (Invited)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Masson-Delmotte, V.
2013-12-01
Different aspects of the climate of the past 2000 years are covered in several chapters of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, including information from paleoclimate archives, changes in the carbon and biogeochemical cycles, changes in sea level, climate model evaluation and detection and attribution. This presentation will summarize the main findings regarding pre-industrial changes in radiative forcings, reconstructed and simulated temperature variations at the hemispheric and regional scales, as well as global sea level for the past 2000 years, in the perspective of the current and earlier interglacial periods.
Solar Changes and Climate Changes. (Invited)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Feynman, J.
2009-12-01
During the early decades of the Space Age there was general agreement in the scientific community on two facts: (1) sunspot cycles continued without interruption; (2) decadal timescale variations in the solar output has no effect on Earth’s climate. Then in 1976 Jack Eddy published a paper called ‘The Maunder Minimum” in Science magazine arguing that neither of these two established facts was true. He reviewed the observations from the 17th century that show the Sun did not appear to cycle for several decades and he related that to the cold winters in Northern Europe at that time. The paper has caused three decades of hot discussions. When Jack Eddy died on June 10th of this year the arguments were sill going on, and there were no sunspots that day. The Sun was in the longest and deepest solar minimum since 1900. In this talk I will describe the changes in the solar output that have taken place over the last few decades and put them in their historical context. I will also review recent work on the influence of decadal and century scale solar variations on the Earth’s climate. It is clear that this long, deep “solar minimum” is an opportunity to make fundamental progress on our understanding of the solar dynamo and to separate climate change due to the Sun from anthropogenic climate change.
Climate Change: The Physical Basis and Latest Results
Stocker, Thomas
2018-05-18
The 2007 Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes: "Warming in the climate system is unequivocal." Without the contribution of Physics to climate science over many decades, such a statement would not have been possible. Experimental physics enables us to read climate archives such as polar ice cores and so provides the context for the current changes. For example, today the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, the second most important greenhouse gas, is 28% higher than any time during the last 800,000 years. Classical fluid mechanics and numerical mathematics are the basis of climate models from which estimates of future climate change are obtained. But major instabilities and surprises in the Earth System are still unknown. These are also to be considered when the climatic consequences of proposals for geo-engineering are estimated. Only Physics will permit us to further improve our understanding in order to provide the foundation for policy decisions facing the global climate change challenge.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lustick, D. S.; Lohmeier, J.; Chen, R. F.
2014-12-01
A team of educators and scientists from the University of Massachusetts Lowell and the University of Massachusetts Boston will report on the second year of an informal science learning research project using mass transit spaces in Lowell, MA. Cool Science (CS) conducts a statewide art competition for K-12 students in the fall challenging them to express climate science understanding through the visual arts. An inter-disciplinary panel of judges evaluates entries and identifies the top 24 works of art. The best six student works of art are then put on public display throughout the spring on the Lowell Regional Transit Authority (LRTA). Displaying student artwork in Out of Home Multi-Media (OHMM) such as bus placards and posters is intended to engage riders with opportunities to learn informally. CS aims to promote and evaluate learning about climate change science among the general public and k-12 students/teachers. The goals of CS are: 1) Engage teachers, students, and parents in a climate change science communication competition. 2) Display the winning 6 artworks from K-12 students throughout the LRTA. 3) Assess the impact of Cool Science on the teaching and learning of climate science in K-12 formal education. 4) Assess the impact of Cool Science artwork on attitudes, awareness, and understanding of climate change among adult bus riders. A naturalistic inquiry employing a mixed methodology approach best describes our research design. The evaluation focuses on providing feedback regarding the potential learning outcomes for the K-12 students who create the media for the project and the general riding public who engage with the student artwork. To identify possible outcomes, data was collected in the several forms: survey, interviews, and online analytics. We see an urgent need to improve both the public's engagement with climate change science and to the profile of climate change science in formal education settings. The Cool Science (CS) project is an opportunity
DOT National Transportation Integrated Search
2012-09-01
Despite increasing confidence in global climate change projections in recent years, projections of : climate effects at local scales remains scarce. Location-specific risks to transportation systems : imposed by changes in climate are not yet well kn...
Climate change impacts on bumblebees converge across continents
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
For many species, geographical ranges are expanding toward the poles in response to climate change, while remaining stable along range edges nearest the equator. Using long term observations across Europe and North America over 110 years, we test for climate change-related range shifts in bumblebee ...
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Marengo, José; Nobre, Carlos A.; Betts, Richard A.; Cox, Peter M.; Sampaio, Gilvan; Salazar, Luis
This chapter constitutes an updated review of long-term climate variability and change in the Amazon region, based on observational data spanning more than 50 years of records and on climate-change modeling studies. We start with the early experiments on Amazon deforestation in the late 1970s, and the evolution of these experiments to the latest studies on greenhouse gases emission scenarios and land use changes until the end of the twenty-first century. The "Amazon dieback" simulated by the HadCM3 model occurs after a "tipping point" of CO2 concentration and warming. Experiments on Amazon deforestation and change of climate suggest that once a critical deforestation threshold (or tipping point) of 40-50% forest loss is reached in eastern Amazonia, climate would change in a way which is dangerous for the remaining forest. This may favor a collapse of the tropical forest, with a substitution of the forest by savanna-type vegetation. The concept of "dangerous climate change," as a climate change, which induces positive feedback, which accelerate the change, is strongly linked to the occurrence of tipping points, and it can be explained as the presence of feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle, particularly involving a weakening of the current terrestrial carbon sink and a possible reversal from a sink (as in present climate) to a source by the year 2050. We must, therefore, currently consider the drying simulated by the Hadley Centre model(s) as having a finite probability under global warming, with a potentially enormous impact, but with some degree of uncertainty.
Climate Change Detection and Attribution of Infrared Spectrum Measurements
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Phojanamongkolkij, Nipa; Parker, Peter A.; Mlynczak, Martin G.
2012-01-01
Climate change occurs when the Earth's energy budget changes due to natural or possibly anthropogenic forcings. These forcings cause the climate system to adjust resulting in a new climate state that is warmer or cooler than the original. The key question is how to detect and attribute climate change. The inference of infrared spectral signatures of climate change has been discussed in the literature for nearly 30 years. Pioneering work in the 1980s noted that distinct spectral signatures would be evident in changes in the infrared radiance emitted by the Earth and its atmosphere, and that these could be observed from orbiting satellites. Since then, a number of other studies have advanced the concepts of spectral signatures of climate change. Today the concept of using spectral signatures to identify and attribute atmospheric composition change is firmly accepted and is the foundation of the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) satellite mission being developed at NASA. In this work, we will present an overview of the current climate change detection concept using climate model calculations as surrogates for climate change. Any future research work improving the methodology to achieve this concept will be valuable to our society.
Climate change, zoonoses and India.
Singh, B B; Sharma, R; Gill, J P S; Aulakh, R S; Banga, H S
2011-12-01
Economic trends have shaped our growth and the growth of the livestock sector, but atthe expense of altering natural resources and systems in ways that are not always obvious. Now, however, the reverse is beginning to happen, i.e. environmental trends are beginning to shape our economy and health status. In addition to water, air and food, animals and birds play a pivotal role in the maintenance and transmission of important zoonotic diseases in nature. It is generally considered that the prevalence of vector-borne and waterborne zoonoses is likely to increase in the coming years due to the effects of global warming in India. In recent years, vector-borne diseases have emerged as a serious public health problem in countries of the South-East Asia region, including India. Vector-borne zoonoses now occur in epidemic form almost on an annual basis, causing considerable morbidity and mortality. New reservoir areas of cutaneous leishmaniosis in South India have been recognised, and the role of climate change in its re-emergence warrants further research, as does the role of climate change in the ascendancy of waterborne and foodborne illness. Similarly, climate change that leads to warmer and more humid conditions may increase the risk of transmission of airborne zoonoses, and hot and drier conditions may lead to a decline in the incidence of disease(s). The prevalence of these zoonotic diseases and their vectors and the effect of climate change on important zoonoses in India are discussed in this review.
Orbital forcing of climate 1.4 billion years ago.
Zhang, Shuichang; Wang, Xiaomei; Hammarlund, Emma U; Wang, Huajian; Costa, M Mafalda; Bjerrum, Christian J; Connelly, James N; Zhang, Baomin; Bian, Lizeng; Canfield, Donald E
2015-03-24
Fluctuating climate is a hallmark of Earth. As one transcends deep into Earth time, however, both the evidence for and the causes of climate change become difficult to establish. We report geochemical and sedimentological evidence for repeated, short-term climate fluctuations from the exceptionally well-preserved ∼1.4-billion-year-old Xiamaling Formation of the North China Craton. We observe two patterns of climate fluctuations: On long time scales, over what amounts to tens of millions of years, sediments of the Xiamaling Formation record changes in geochemistry consistent with long-term changes in the location of the Xiamaling relative to the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. On shorter time scales, and within a precisely calibrated stratigraphic framework, cyclicity in sediment geochemical dynamics is consistent with orbital control. In particular, sediment geochemical fluctuations reflect what appear to be orbitally forced changes in wind patterns and ocean circulation as they influenced rates of organic carbon flux, trace metal accumulation, and the source of detrital particles to the sediment.
Malaria Ecology, Disease Burden and Global Climate Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mccord, G. C.
2014-12-01
Malaria has afflicted human society for over 2 million years, and remains one of the great killer diseases today. The disease is the fourth leading cause of death for children under five in low income countries (after neonatal disorders, diarrhea, and pneumonia) and is responsible for at least one in every five child deaths in sub-Saharan Africa. It kills up to 3 million people a year, though in recent years scale up of anti-malaria efforts in Africa may have brought deaths to below 1 million. Malaria is highly conditioned by ecology, because of which climate change is likely to change the local dynamics of the disease through changes in ambient temperature and precipitation. To assess the potential implications of climate change for the malaria burden, this paper employs a Malaria Ecology Index from the epidemiology literature, relates it to malaria incidence and mortality using global country-level data , and then draws implications for 2100 by extrapolating the index using several general circulation model (GCM) predictions of temperature and precipitation. The results highlight the climate change driven increase in the basic reproduction number of the disease and the resulting complications for further gains in elimination. For illustrative purposes, I report the change in malaria incidence and mortality if climate change were to happen immediately under current technology and public health efforts.
Ice-sheet mass balance and climate change.
Hanna, Edward; Navarro, Francisco J; Pattyn, Frank; Domingues, Catia M; Fettweis, Xavier; Ivins, Erik R; Nicholls, Robert J; Ritz, Catherine; Smith, Ben; Tulaczyk, Slawek; Whitehouse, Pippa L; Zwally, H Jay
2013-06-06
Since the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, new observations of ice-sheet mass balance and improved computer simulations of ice-sheet response to continuing climate change have been published. Whereas Greenland is losing ice mass at an increasing pace, current Antarctic ice loss is likely to be less than some recently published estimates. It remains unclear whether East Antarctica has been gaining or losing ice mass over the past 20 years, and uncertainties in ice-mass change for West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula remain large. We discuss the past six years of progress and examine the key problems that remain.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Du, Mingyuan; Kawashima, Shigeto; Yonemura, Seiichiro; Zhang, Xianzhou; Chen, Shenbin
2004-07-01
It is well known that there is a vast expanse of grassland on the Tibetan Plateau, China. It is suggested that a major climatic factor limiting production of the grassland ecosystem is the low thermo-conditions on the Tibetan Plateau. An increase in temperature may therefore increase the productivity of grasslands on the Plateau. Monthly mean temperature and monthly precipitation data for recent years on the Tibetan Plateau were analyzed. It is clear that the increase in air temperature on the Plateau is greater than that in the whole China and East Asia. On the other hand, statistics show that the production of livestock or meat in the Tibetan Plateau has increased by one to three times since 1978, which means that there should be an equivalent increase in the consumption of plant biomass from the grassland. How is the "increased biomass" related to human activities and climate changes? This paper tries to clarify the relationship between human activities and climate change and to propose a possible answer by laying emphasis on the importance of grassland protection and CO 2 flux monitoring. It is suggested that there is a positive feedback in which degradation of grassland by overgrazing will increase potential evapotranspiration level thereby promoting the climate warming and the degradation process. This feedback should be considered seriously in the future.
Some guidelines for helping natural resources adapt to climate change
Baron, Jill S.; Julius, Susan Herrod; West, Jordan M.; Joyce, Linda A.; Blate, Geoffrey; Peterson, Charles H.; Palmer, Margaret; Keller, Brian D.; Kareiva, Peter; Scott, J. Michael; Griffith, Brad
2008-01-01
The changes occurring in mountain regions are an epitome of climate change. The dramatic shrinkage of major glaciers over the past century – and especially in the last 30 years – is one of several iconic images that have come to symbolize climate change. Climate creates the context for ecosystems, and climate variables strongly influence the structure, composition, and processes that characterize distinct ecosystems. Climate change, therefore, is having direct and indirect effects on species attributes, ecological interactions, and ecosystem processes. Because changes in the climate system will continue regardless of emissions mitigation, management strategies to enhance the resilience of ecosystems will become increasingly important. It is essential that management responses to climate change proceed using the best available science despite uncertainties associated with the future path of climate change, the response of ecosystems to climate effects, and the effects of management. Given these uncertainties, management adaptation will require flexibility to reflect our growing understanding of climate change impacts and management effectiveness.
Mars Recent Climate Change Workshop
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Haberle, Robert M.; Owen, Sandra J.
2012-11-01
mobilize and redistribute volatile reservoirs both on and below the surface. And for Mars, these variations are large. In the past 20 My, for example, the obliquity is believed to have varied from a low of 15° to a high of 45° with a regular oscillation time scale of ~10^5 years. These variations are typically less than two degrees on the Earth. Mars, therefore, offers a natural laboratory for the study of orbitally induced climate change on a terrestrial planet. Finally, general circulation models (GCMs) for Mars have reached a level of sophistication that justifies their application to the study of spin axis/orbitally forced climate change. With recent advances in computer technology the models can run at reasonable spatial resolution for many Mars years with physics packages that include cloud microphysics, radiative transfer in scattering/absorbing atmospheres, surface heat budgets, boundary layer schemes, and a host of other processes. To be sure, the models will undergo continual improvement, but with carefully designed experiments they can now provide insights into mechanisms of climate change in the recent past. Thus, the geologic record is better preserved, the forcing function is large, and GCMs have become useful tools. While research efforts in each of these areas have progressed considerably over the past several decades, they have proceeded mostly on independent paths occasionally leading to conflicting ideas. To remedy this situation and accelerate progress in the area, the NASA/Ames Research Center's Mars General Circulation Modeling Group hosted a 3-day workshop on May 15-17, 2012 that brought together the geological and atmospheric science communities to collectively discuss the evidence for recent climate change on Mars, the nature of the change required, and how that change could be brought about. Over 50 researchers, students, and post-docs from the US, Canada, Europe, and Japan attended the meeting. The program and abstracts from the workshop are
Anthropogenic Climate Change in Asia: Key Challenges
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ramaswamy, V.
2009-12-01
The energy, agricultural, and water sectors in Asia, a vast continent that comprises more than half of the world's population, are crucially vulnerable to shifts in climate. The acceleration of economic development in Asia over the past few decades, the dependence of its huge agricultural economy on rainfall, and its growing energy demands have thrust climate change and its impacts squarely into important sectors of the Asian society. Further, it is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over the Asian continent (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [2007]; see Figure 1a). Asian megacities are already witnessing stresses in food, water, transportation, health, and air quality. The situation could become even worse with projected changes in temperature and rainfall in the 21st century, coupled with the likelihood that climate change will exacerbate extremes.
Climate change. Accelerating extinction risk from climate change.
Urban, Mark C
2015-05-01
Current predictions of extinction risks from climate change vary widely depending on the specific assumptions and geographic and taxonomic focus of each study. I synthesized published studies in order to estimate a global mean extinction rate and determine which factors contribute the greatest uncertainty to climate change-induced extinction risks. Results suggest that extinction risks will accelerate with future global temperatures, threatening up to one in six species under current policies. Extinction risks were highest in South America, Australia, and New Zealand, and risks did not vary by taxonomic group. Realistic assumptions about extinction debt and dispersal capacity substantially increased extinction risks. We urgently need to adopt strategies that limit further climate change if we are to avoid an acceleration of global extinctions. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.
Phylogenetic approaches reveal biodiversity threats under climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
González-Orozco, Carlos E.; Pollock, Laura J.; Thornhill, Andrew H.; Mishler, Brent D.; Knerr, Nunzio; Laffan, Shawn W.; Miller, Joseph T.; Rosauer, Dan F.; Faith, Daniel P.; Nipperess, David A.; Kujala, Heini; Linke, Simon; Butt, Nathalie; Külheim, Carsten; Crisp, Michael D.; Gruber, Bernd
2016-12-01
Predicting the consequences of climate change for biodiversity is critical to conservation efforts. Extensive range losses have been predicted for thousands of individual species, but less is known about how climate change might impact whole clades and landscape-scale patterns of biodiversity. Here, we show that climate change scenarios imply significant changes in phylogenetic diversity and phylogenetic endemism at a continental scale in Australia using the hyper-diverse clade of eucalypts. We predict that within the next 60 years the vast majority of species distributions (91%) across Australia will shrink in size (on average by 51%) and shift south on the basis of projected suitable climatic space. Geographic areas currently with high phylogenetic diversity and endemism are predicted to change substantially in future climate scenarios. Approximately 90% of the current areas with concentrations of palaeo-endemism (that is, places with old evolutionary diversity) are predicted to disappear or shift their location. These findings show that climate change threatens whole clades of the phylogenetic tree, and that the outlined approach can be used to forecast areas of biodiversity losses and continental-scale impacts of climate change.
Leaf morphology shift linked to climate change.
Guerin, Greg R; Wen, Haixia; Lowe, Andrew J
2012-10-23
Climate change is driving adaptive shifts within species, but research on plants has been focused on phenology. Leaf morphology has demonstrated links with climate and varies within species along climate gradients. We predicted that, given within-species variation along a climate gradient, a morphological shift should have occurred over time due to climate change. We tested this prediction, taking advantage of latitudinal and altitudinal variations within the Adelaide Geosyncline region, South Australia, historical herbarium specimens (n = 255) and field sampling (n = 274). Leaf width in the study taxon, Dodonaea viscosa subsp. angustissima, was negatively correlated with latitude regionally, and leaf area was negatively correlated with altitude locally. Analysis of herbarium specimens revealed a 2 mm decrease in leaf width (total range 1-9 mm) over 127 years across the region. The results are consistent with a morphological response to contemporary climate change. We conclude that leaf width is linked to maximum temperature regionally (latitude gradient) and leaf area to minimum temperature locally (altitude gradient). These data indicate a morphological shift consistent with a direct response to climate change and could inform provenance selection for restoration with further investigation of the genetic basis and adaptive significance of observed variation.
Selected Translated Abstracts of Chinese-Language Climate Change Publications
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Cushman, R.M.; Burtis, M.D.
1999-05-01
This report contains English-translated abstracts of important Chinese-language literature concerning global climate change for the years 1995-1998. This body of literature includes the topics of adaptation, ancient climate change, climate variation, the East Asia monsoon, historical climate change, impacts, modeling, and radiation and trace-gas emissions. In addition to the biological citations and abstracts translated into English, this report presents the original citations and abstracts in Chinese. Author and title indexes are included to assist the reader in locating abstracts of particular interest.
Climate Change and Algal Blooms =
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lin, Shengpan
Algal blooms are new emerging hazards that have had important social impacts in recent years. However, it was not very clear whether future climate change causing warming waters and stronger storm events would exacerbate the algal bloom problem. The goal of this dissertation was to evaluate the sensitivity of algal biomass to climate change in the continental United States. Long-term large-scale observations of algal biomass in inland lakes are challenging, but are necessary to relate climate change to algal blooms. To get observations at this scale, this dissertation applied machine-learning algorithms including boosted regression trees (BRT) in remote sensing of chlorophyll-a with Landsat TM/ETM+. The results show that the BRT algorithm improved model accuracy by 15%, compared to traditional linear regression. The remote sensing model explained 46% of the total variance of the ground-measured chlorophyll- a in the first National Lake Assessment conducted by the US Environmental Protection Agency. That accuracy was ecologically meaningful to study climate change impacts on algal blooms. Moreover, the BRT algorithm for chlorophyll- a would not have systematic bias that is introduced by sediments and colored dissolved organic matter, both of which might change concurrently with climate change and algal blooms. This dissertation shows that the existing atmospheric corrections for Landsat TM/ETM+ imagery might not be good enough to improve the remote sensing of chlorophyll-a in inland lakes. After deriving long-term algal biomass estimates from Landsat TM/ETM+, time series analysis was used to study the relations of climate change and algal biomass in four Missouri reservoirs. The results show that neither temperature nor precipitation was the only factor that controlled temporal variation of algal biomass. Different reservoirs, even different zones within the same reservoir, responded differently to temperature and precipitation changes. These findings were further
Land-use change may exacerbate climate change impacts on water resources in the Ganges basin
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tsarouchi, Gina; Buytaert, Wouter
2018-02-01
Quantifying how land-use change and climate change affect water resources is a challenge in hydrological science. This work aims to quantify how future projections of land-use and climate change might affect the hydrological response of the Upper Ganges river basin in northern India, which experiences monsoon flooding almost every year. Three different sets of modelling experiments were run using the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model (LSM) and covering the period 2000-2035: in the first set, only climate change is taken into account, and JULES was driven by the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) outputs of 21 models, under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), whilst land use was held fixed at the year 2010. In the second set, only land-use change is taken into account, and JULES was driven by a time series of 15 future land-use pathways, based on Landsat satellite imagery and the Markov chain simulation, whilst the meteorological boundary conditions were held fixed at years 2000-2005. In the third set, both climate change and land-use change were taken into consideration, as the CMIP5 model outputs were used in conjunction with the 15 future land-use pathways to force JULES. Variations in hydrological variables (stream flow, evapotranspiration and soil moisture) are calculated during the simulation period. Significant changes in the near-future (years 2030-2035) hydrologic fluxes arise under future land-cover and climate change scenarios pointing towards a severe increase in high extremes of flow: the multi-model mean of the 95th percentile of streamflow (Q5) is projected to increase by 63 % under the combined land-use and climate change high emissions scenario (RCP8.5). The changes in all examined hydrological components are greater in the combined land-use and climate change experiment. Results are further presented in a water resources context, aiming to address potential implications of
Linda A. Joyce
2008-01-01
The science associated with climate and its effects on ecosystems, economies, and social systems is developing rapidly. Climate change assessments can serve as an important synthesis of this science and provide the information and context for management and policy decisions on adaptation and mitigation. This topic paper describes the variety of climate change...
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hoencamp, Jori; Stap, Lennert; Tuenter, Erik; Lourens, Luc; van de Wal, Roderik
2016-04-01
Knowledge on polar amplification is important to relate high latitude climate records to global mean temperature changes. Several studies have pointed out that the strength of polar amplification in the Northern Hemisphere varies considerably due to the presence of large ice sheets and more sea ice during colder climate conditions. As a result, the polar amplification in the Northern Hemisphere decreases for warmer climates. In this study, we address the fact that these changes in the Northern Hemisphere also affect the polar amplification in the Southern Hemisphere. We study the Southern and Northern Hemisphere amplification together over the past 5 million years with the CLIMBER-2 intermediate complexity model. Radiation, land ice extent and height, and greenhouse gases are prescribed as forcing. We find that in contrast to the reduction in polar amplification in the Northern Hemisphere, polar amplification in the Southern Hemisphere increases for warmer climates. The amplification decreases in the Northern Hemisphere from 2.7 during glacial conditions to 1.6 for a pre-industrial climate, which is line with other climate simulations. Over the same CO2 range the southern hemispheric polar amplification increases from 1 to 1.6. This is caused by the fact that the atmospheric transport needed to balance the radiation surplus in the equatorial region needs to be compensated by relatively stronger transport of energy in Southern direction while the transport in Northern direction reduces. This reduction in Northern direction is driven by less (land and sea) ice resulting in a smaller meridional gradient in Northern direction and hence a smaller atmospheric transport. As a consequence, the traditional scaled (with LGM temperature) Dome C record needs to be corrected with a maximum of 0.6 degrees half-way glacial and interglacial conditions, if it is to be interpreted as global mean temperature change indicator. While this changes the amplitude, the phasing of
Evolution of plasticity and adaptive responses to climate change along climate gradients.
Kingsolver, Joel G; Buckley, Lauren B
2017-08-16
The relative contributions of phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution to the responses of species to recent and future climate change are poorly understood. We combine recent (1960-2010) climate and phenotypic data with microclimate, heat balance, demographic and evolutionary models to address this issue for a montane butterfly, Colias eriphyle , along an elevational gradient. Our focal phenotype, wing solar absorptivity, responds plastically to developmental (pupal) temperatures and plays a central role in thermoregulatory adaptation in adults. Here, we show that both the phenotypic and adaptive consequences of plasticity vary with elevation. Seasonal changes in weather generate seasonal variation in phenotypic selection on mean and plasticity of absorptivity, especially at lower elevations. In response to climate change in the past 60 years, our models predict evolutionary declines in mean absorptivity (but little change in plasticity) at high elevations, and evolutionary increases in plasticity (but little change in mean) at low elevation. The importance of plasticity depends on the magnitude of seasonal variation in climate relative to interannual variation. Our results suggest that selection and evolution of both trait means and plasticity can contribute to adaptive response to climate change in this system. They also illustrate how plasticity can facilitate rather than retard adaptive evolutionary responses to directional climate change in seasonal environments. © 2017 The Author(s).
How Five Master Teachers Teach about Climate Chang
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bloch, L.
2015-12-01
The AGU Position Statement, "Human-Induced Climate Change Requires Urgent Action," calls on scientists to "[work] with stakeholders to identify relevant information, and [to convey] understanding clearly and accurately, both to decision makers and to the general public". Everyday, K-12 teachers communicate with an important segment of the general public, and they represent important stakeholders with unique needs. The terms 'global warming', 'greenhouse effect', and 'climate change' appear nowhere in the 1996 National Science Education Standards, but under the Next Generation Science Standards, millions of teachers- most of whom have little to no experience teaching about climate change- will be required to cover the topic. This presentation discusses research conducted with five veteran public school teachers, each of whom has been teaching about climate change for many years. The group comprises three high school teachers, a middle school teacher, and an elementary school teacher. The study examined: 1) What these teachers teach about climate change; 2) How they teach about climate change; 3) What resources they use in teaching and learning about climate change; and 4) How they think the scientific community can support teachers in their efforts to teach about climate change. The teachers varied in their teaching practices and in their conceptions of 'climate change', but they all said that the academic community can support climate change education by developing locally relevant educational resources. Scientists working with K-12 teachers can build on the work of these master teachers, and attendees can access detailed descriptions of all of the lessons and the associated learning materials.
Potential impacts of climate change on neotropical migrants: management implications
Jeff T. Price; Terry L. Root
2005-01-01
The world is warming. Over the last 100 years, the global average temperature has increased by approximately 0.7°C. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects a further increase in global mean temperatures of between 1.4° - 5.8° C by the year 2100. How will climate change affect Neotropical migrants? Models of changes...
Knapp, Alan K; Hoover, David L; Wilcox, Kevin R; Avolio, Meghan L; Koerner, Sally E; La Pierre, Kimberly J; Loik, Michael E; Luo, Yiqi; Sala, Osvaldo E; Smith, Melinda D
2015-02-03
Climate change is intensifying the hydrologic cycle and is expected to increase the frequency of extreme wet and dry years. Beyond precipitation amount, extreme wet and dry years may differ in other ways, such as the number of precipitation events, event size, and the time between events. We assessed 1614 long-term (100 year) precipitation records from around the world to identify key attributes of precipitation regimes, besides amount, that distinguish statistically extreme wet from extreme dry years. In general, in regions where mean annual precipitation (MAP) exceeded 1000 mm, precipitation amounts in extreme wet and dry years differed from average years by ~40% and 30%, respectively. The magnitude of these deviations increased to >60% for dry years and to >150% for wet years in arid regions (MAP<500 mm). Extreme wet years were primarily distinguished from average and extreme dry years by the presence of multiple extreme (large) daily precipitation events (events >99th percentile of all events); these occurred twice as often in extreme wet years compared to average years. In contrast, these large precipitation events were rare in extreme dry years. Less important for distinguishing extreme wet from dry years were mean event size and frequency, or the number of dry days between events. However, extreme dry years were distinguished from average years by an increase in the number of dry days between events. These precipitation regime attributes consistently differed between extreme wet and dry years across 12 major terrestrial ecoregions from around the world, from deserts to the tropics. Thus, we recommend that climate change experiments and model simulations incorporate these differences in key precipitation regime attributes, as well as amount into treatments. This will allow experiments to more realistically simulate extreme precipitation years and more accurately assess the ecological consequences. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Communicating Urban Climate Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Snyder, S.; Crowley, K.; Horton, R.; Bader, D.; Hoffstadt, R.; Labriole, M.; Shugart, E.; Steiner, M.; Climate; Urban Systems Partnership
2011-12-01
While cities cover only 2% of the Earth's surface, over 50% of the world's people live in urban environments. Precisely because of their population density, cities can play a large role in reducing or exacerbating the global impact of climate change. The actions of cities could hold the key to slowing down climate change. Urban dwellers are becoming more aware of the need to reduce their carbon usage and to implement adaptation strategies. However, messaging around these strategies has not been comprehensive and adaptation to climate change requires local knowledge, capacity and a high level of coordination. Unless urban populations understand climate change and its impacts it is unlikely that cities will be able to successfully implement policies that reduce anthropogenic climate change. Informal and formal educational institutions in urban environments can serve as catalysts when partnering with climate scientists, educational research groups, and public policy makers to disseminate information about climate change and its impacts on urban audiences. The Climate and Urban Systems Partnership (CUSP) is an interdisciplinary network designed to assess and meet the needs and challenges of educating urban audiences about climate change. CUSP brings together organizations in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Queens, NY and Washington, DC to forge links with informal and formal education partners, city government, and policy makers. Together this network will create and disseminate learner-focused climate education programs and resources for urban audiences that, while distinct, are thematically and temporally coordinated, resulting in the communication of clear and consistent information and learning experiences about climate science to a wide public audience. Working at a community level CUSP will bring coordinated programming directly into neighborhoods presenting the issues of global climate change in a highly local context. The project is currently exploring a number of
Climate Change in the Pacific Islands
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hamnett, Michael P.
Climate change have been a major concern among Pacific Islanders since the late 1990s. During that period, Time Magazine featured a cover story that read: Say Goodbye to the Marshall Islands, Kiribati, and Tuvalu from sea level rise. Since that time, the South Pacific Regional Environment Programme, UN and government agencies and academic researchers have been assessing the impacts of long-term climate change and seasonal to inter-annual climate variability on the Pacific Islands. The consensus is that long-term climate change will result in more extreme weather and tidal events including droughts, floods, tropical cyclones, coastal erosion, and salt water inundation. Extreme weather events already occur in the Pacific Islands and they are patterned. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events impact rainfall, tropical cyclone and tidal patterns. In 2000, the first National Assessment of the Consequences of Climate Variability and Change concluded that long-term climate change will result in more El Niño events or a more El Niño like climate every year. The bad news is that will mean more natural disasters. The good news is that El Niño events can be predicted and people can prepare for them. The reallly bad news is that some Pacific Islands are already becoming uninhabitable because of erosion of land or the loss of fresh water from droughts and salt water intrusion. Many of the most vulnerable countries already overseas populations in New Zealand, the US, or larger Pacific Island countries. For some Pacific Islander abandoning their home countries will be their only option.
Climate Change Impacts on Migration in the Vulnerable Countries
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
An, Nazan; Incealtin, Gamze; Kurnaz, M. Levent; Şengün Ucal, Meltem
2014-05-01
This work focuses on the economic, demographic and environmental drivers of migration related with the sustainable development in underdeveloped and developed countries, which are the most vulnerable to the climate change impacts through the Climate-Development Modeling including climate modeling and panel logit data analysis. We have studied some countries namely Bangladesh, Netherlands, Morocco, Malaysia, Ethiopia and Bolivia. We have analyzed these countries according to their economic, demographic and environmental indicators related with the determinants of migration, and we tried to indicate that their conditions differ according to all these factors concerning with the climate change impacts. This modeling covers some explanatory variables, which have the relationship with the migration, including GDP per capita, population, temperature and precipitation, which indicate the seasonal differences according to the years, the occurrence of natural hazards over the years, coastal location of countries, permanent cropland areas and fish capture which represents the amount of capturing over the years. We analyzed that whether there is a relationship between the migration and these explanatory variables. In order to achieve sustainable development by preventing or decreasing environmental migration due to climate change impacts or related other factors, these countries need to maintain economic, social, political, demographic, and in particular environmental performance. There are some significant risks stemming from climate change, which is not under control. When the economic and environmental conditions are considered, we have to regard climate change to be the more destructive force for those who are less defensible against all of these risks and impacts of uncontrolled climate change. This work was supported by the BU Research Fund under the project number 6990. One of the authors (MLK) was partially supported by Mercator-IPC Fellowship Program.
Climate change and skin disease.
Lundgren, Ashley D
2018-04-01
Despite commanding essentially universal scientific consensus, climate change remains a divisive and poorly understood topic in the United States. Familiarity with this subject is not just for climate scientists. The impact of climate change on human morbidity and mortality may be considerable; thus, physicians also should be knowledgeable in this realm. Climate change science can seem opaque and inferential, creating fertile ground for political polemics and undoubtedly contributing to confusion among the general public. This puts physicians in a pivotal position to facilitate a practical understanding of climate change in the public sphere by discussing changes in disease patterns and their possible relationship to a changing climate. This article provides a background on climate change for dermatologists and highlights how climate change may impact the management of skin disease across the United States.
Changes in Landscape Greenness and Climatic Factors over ...
Monitoring and quantifying changes in vegetation cover over large areas using remote sensing can be achieved using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), an indicator of greenness. However, distinguishing gradual shifts in NDVI (e.g. climate change) versus direct and rapid changes (e.g., fire, land development) is challenging as changes can be confounded by time-dependent patterns, and variation associated with climatic factors. In the present study we leveraged a method, that we previously developed for a pilot study, to address these confounding factors by evaluating NDVI change using autoregression techniques that compare results from univariate (NDVI vs. time) and multivariate analyses (NDVI vs. time and climatic factors) for ~7,660,636 1-km2 pixels comprising the 48 contiguous states of the USA, over a 25-year period (1989−2013). NDVI changed significantly for 48% of the nation over the 25-year in the univariate analyses where most significant trends (85%) indicated an increase in greenness over time. By including climatic factors in the multivariate analyses of NDVI over time, the detection of significant NDVI trends increased to 53% (an increase of 5%). Comparisons of univariate and multivariate analyses for each pixel showed that less than 4% of the pixels had a significant NDVI trend attributable to gradual climatic changes while the remainder of pixels with a significant NDVI trend indicated that changes were due to direct factors. Whi
The climate change consensus extends beyond climate scientists
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Carlton, J. S.; Perry-Hill, Rebecca; Huber, Matthew; Prokopy, Linda S.
2015-09-01
The existence of anthropogenic climate change remains a public controversy despite the consensus among climate scientists. The controversy may be fed by the existence of scientists from other disciplines publicly casting doubt on the validity of climate science. The extent to which non-climate scientists are skeptical of climate science has not been studied via direct survey. Here we report on a survey of biophysical scientists across disciplines at universities in the Big 10 Conference. Most respondents (93.6%) believe that mean temperatures have risen and most (91.9%) believe in an anthropogenic contribution to rising temperatures. Respondents strongly believe that climate science is credible (mean credibility score 6.67/7). Those who disagree about climate change disagree over basic facts (e.g., the effects of CO2 on climate) and have different cultural and political values. These results suggest that scientists who are climate change skeptics are outliers and that the majority of scientists surveyed believe in anthropogenic climate change and that climate science is credible and mature.
Undergraduate Students As Effective Climate Change Communicators
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sharif, H. O.; Joseph, J.; Mullendore, G. L.
2014-12-01
The University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA), San Antonio College (SAC), and the University of North Dakota (UND) have partnered with NASA to provide underrepresented undergraduates from UTSA, SAC, and other community colleges climate-related research and education experiences through the Climate Change Communication: Engineer, Environmental science, and Education (C3E3) project. The program aims to develop a robust response to climate change by providing K-16 climate change education; enhance the effectiveness of K-16 education particularly in engineering and other STEM disciplines by use of new instructional technologies; increase the enrollment in engineering programs and the number of engineering degrees awarded by showing engineering's usefulness in relation to the much-discussed contemporary issue of climate change; increase persistence in STEM degrees by providing student research opportunities; and increase the ethnic diversity of those receiving engineering degrees and help ensure an ethnically diverse response to climate change. Students participated in the second summer internship funded by the project. The program is in its third year. More than 75 students participated in a guided research experiences aligned with NASA Science Plan objectives for climate and Earth system science and the educational objectives of the three institutions. The students went through training in modern media technology (webcasts), and in using this technology to communicate the information on climate change to others, especially high school students, culminating in production of webcasts on investigating the aspects of climate change using NASA data. Content developed is leveraged by NASA Earth observation data and NASA Earth system models and tools. Three Colleges were involved in the program: Engineering, Education, and Science.
Conservation in the face of climate change: recent developments.
Lawler, Joshua; Watson, James; Game, Edward
2015-01-01
An increased understanding of the current and potential future impacts of climate change has significantly influenced conservation in practice in recent years. Climate change has necessitated a shift toward longer planning time horizons, moving baselines, and evolving conservation goals and targets. This shift has resulted in new perspectives on, and changes in, the basic approaches practitioners use to conserve biodiversity. Restoration, spatial planning and reserve selection, connectivity modelling, extinction risk assessment, and species translocations have all been reimagined in the face of climate change. Restoration is being conducted with a new acceptance of uncertainty and an understanding that goals will need to shift through time. New conservation targets, such as geophysical settings and climatic refugia, are being incorporated into conservation plans. Risk assessments have begun to consider the potentially synergistic impacts of climate change and other threats. Assisted colonization has gained acceptance in recent years as a viable and necessary conservation tool. This evolution has paralleled a larger trend in conservation-a shift toward conservation actions that benefit both people and nature. As we look forward, it is clear that more change is on the horizon. To protect biodiversity and essential ecosystem services, conservation will need to anticipate the human response to climate change and to focus not only on resistance and resilience but on transitions to new states and new ecosystems.
Conservation in the face of climate change: recent developments
Lawler, Joshua; Watson, James; Game, Edward
2015-01-01
An increased understanding of the current and potential future impacts of climate change has significantly influenced conservation in practice in recent years. Climate change has necessitated a shift toward longer planning time horizons, moving baselines, and evolving conservation goals and targets. This shift has resulted in new perspectives on, and changes in, the basic approaches practitioners use to conserve biodiversity. Restoration, spatial planning and reserve selection, connectivity modelling, extinction risk assessment, and species translocations have all been reimagined in the face of climate change. Restoration is being conducted with a new acceptance of uncertainty and an understanding that goals will need to shift through time. New conservation targets, such as geophysical settings and climatic refugia, are being incorporated into conservation plans. Risk assessments have begun to consider the potentially synergistic impacts of climate change and other threats. Assisted colonization has gained acceptance in recent years as a viable and necessary conservation tool. This evolution has paralleled a larger trend in conservation—a shift toward conservation actions that benefit both people and nature. As we look forward, it is clear that more change is on the horizon. To protect biodiversity and essential ecosystem services, conservation will need to anticipate the human response to climate change and to focus not only on resistance and resilience but on transitions to new states and new ecosystems. PMID:26937271
Climate Change Student Summits: A Model that Works (Invited)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Huffman, L. T.
2013-12-01
The C2S2: Climate Change Student Summit project has completed four years of activities plus a year-long longitudinal evaluation with demonstrated positive impacts beyond the life of the project on both students and teachers. This presentation will share the lessons learned about implementing this climate change science education program and suggest that it is a successful model that can be used to scale up from its Midwestern roots to achieve measurable national impact. A NOAA Environmental Literacy grant allowed ANDRILL (ANtarctic geological DRILLing) to grow a 2008 pilot program involving 2 Midwestern sites, to a program 4 years later involving 10 sites. The excellent geographical coverage included 9 of the U.S. National Climate Assessment regions defined by the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Through the delivery of two professional development (PD) workshops, a unique opportunity was provided for both formal and informal educators to engage their classrooms/audiences in understanding the complexities of climate change. For maximum contact hours, the PD experience was extended throughout the school year through the use of an online grouphub. Student teams were involved in a creative investigative science research and presentation experience culminating in a Climate Change Student Summit, an on-site capstone event including a videoconference connecting all sites. The success of this program was based on combining multiple aspects, such as encouraging the active involvement of scientists and early career researchers both in the professional development workshops and in the Student Summit. Another key factor was the close working relationships between informal and formal science entities, including involvement of informal science learning facilities and informal science education leaders. The program also created cutting-edge curriculum materials titled the ELF, (Environmental Literacy Framework with a focus on climate change), providing an earth systems
Simulating Climate Change in Ireland
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nolan, P.; Lynch, P.
2012-04-01
At the Meteorology & Climate Centre at University College Dublin, we are using the CLM-Community's COSMO-CLM Regional Climate Model (RCM) and the WRF RCM (developed at NCAR) to simulate the climate of Ireland at high spatial resolution. To address the issue of model uncertainty, a Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) approach is used. The ensemble method uses different RCMs, driven by several Global Climate Models (GCMs), to simulate climate change. Through the MME approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections is quantified, enabling us to estimate the probability density function of predicted changes, and providing a measure of confidence in the predictions. The RCMs were validated by performing a 20-year simulation of the Irish climate (1981-2000), driven by ECMWF ERA-40 global re-analysis data, and comparing the output to observations. Results confirm that the output of the RCMs exhibit reasonable and realistic features as documented in the historical data record. Projections for the future Irish climate were generated by downscaling the Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5 GCM, the UK Met Office HadGEM2-ES GCM and the CGCM3.1 GCM from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling. Simulations were run for a reference period 1961-2000 and future period 2021-2060. The future climate was simulated using the A1B, A2, B1, RCP 4.5 & RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Results for the downscaled simulations show a substantial overall increase in precipitation and wind speed for the future winter months and a decrease during the summer months. The predicted annual change in temperature is approximately 1.1°C over Ireland. To date, all RCM projections are in general agreement, thus increasing our confidence in the robustness of the results.
Climate Impacts of Fire-Induced Land-Surface Changes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liu, Y.; Hao, X.; Qu, J. J.
2017-12-01
One of the consequences of wildfires is the changes in land-surface properties such as removal of vegetation. This will change local and regional climate through modifying the land-air heat and water fluxes. This study investigates mechanism by developing and a parameterization of fire-induced land-surface property changes and applying it to modeling of the climate impacts of large wildfires in the United States. Satellite remote sensing was used to quantitatively evaluate the land-surface changes from large fires provided from the Monitoring Trends in Burning Severity (MTBS) dataset. It was found that the changes in land-surface properties induced by fires are very complex, depending on vegetation type and coverage, climate type, season and time after fires. The changes in LAI are remarkable only if the actual values meet a threshold. Large albedo changes occur in winter for fires in cool climate regions. The signs are opposite between the first post-fire year and the following years. Summer day-time temperature increases after fires, while nigh-time temperature changes in various patterns. The changes are larger in forested lands than shrub / grassland lands. In the parameterization scheme, the detected post-fire changes are decomposed into trends using natural exponential functions and fluctuations of periodic variations with the amplitudes also determined by natural exponential functions. The final algorithm is a combination of the trends, periods, and amplitude functions. This scheme is used with Earth system models to simulate the local and regional climate effects of wildfires.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Klemm, Juliane; Herzschuh, Ulrike; Pestryakova, Luidmila A.
2016-09-01
Palaeoecological investigations in the larch forest-tundra ecotone in northern Siberia have the potential to reveal Holocene environmental variations, which likely have consequences for global climate change because of the strong high-latitude feedback mechanisms. A sediment core, collected from a small lake (radius ∼100 m), was used to reconstruct the development of the lake and its catchment as well as vegetation and summer temperatures over the last 7100 calibrated years. A multi-proxy approach was taken including pollen and sedimentological analyses. Our data indicate a gradual replacement of open larch forests by tundra with scattered single trees as found today in the vicinity of the lake. An overall trend of cooling summer temperature from a ∼2 °C warmer-than-present mid-Holocene summer temperatures until the establishment of modern conditions around 3000 years ago is reconstructed based on a regional pollen-climate transfer function. The inference of regional vegetation changes was compared to local changes in the lake's catchment. An initial small water depression occurred from 7100 to 6500 cal years BP. Afterwards, a small lake formed and deepened, probably due to thermokarst processes. Although the general trends of local and regional environmental change match, the lake catchment changes show higher variability. Furthermore, changes in the lake catchment slightly precede those in the regional vegetation. Both proxies highlight that marked environmental changes occurred in the Siberian forest-tundra ecotone over the course of the Holocene.
[Predicting the impact of climate change in the next 40 years on the yield of maize in China].
Ma, Yu-ping; Sun, Lin-li; E, You-hao; Wu, Wei
2015-01-01
Climate change will significantly affect agricultural production in China. The combination of the integral regression model and the latest climate projection may well assess the impact of future climate change on crop yield. In this paper, the correlation model of maize yield and meteorological factors was firstly established for different provinces in China by using the integral regression method, then the impact of climate change in the next 40 years on China's maize production was evaluated combined the latest climate prediction with the reason be ing analyzed. The results showed that if the current speeds of maize variety improvement and science and technology development were constant, maize yield in China would be mainly in an increasing trend of reduction with time in the next 40 years in a range generally within 5%. Under A2 climate change scenario, the region with the most reduction of maize yield would be the Northeast except during 2021-2030, and the reduction would be generally in the range of 2.3%-4.2%. Maize yield reduction would be also high in the Northwest, Southwest and middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River after 2031. Under B2 scenario, the reduction of 5.3% in the Northeast in 2031-2040 would be the greatest across all regions. Other regions with considerable maize yield reduction would be mainly in the Northwest and the Southwest. Reduction in maize yield in North China would be small, generally within 2%, under any scenarios, and that in South China would be almost unchanged. The reduction of maize yield in most regions would be greater under A2 scenario than under B2 scenario except for the period of 2021-2030. The effect of the ten day precipitation on maize yield in northern China would be almost positive. However, the effect of ten day average temperature on yield of maize in all regions would be generally negative. The main reason of maize yield reduction was temperature increase in most provinces but precipitation decrease in a few
Climate change and disaster management.
O'Brien, Geoff; O'Keefe, Phil; Rose, Joanne; Wisner, Ben
2006-03-01
Climate change, although a natural phenomenon, is accelerated by human activities. Disaster policy response to climate change is dependent on a number of factors, such as readiness to accept the reality of climate change, institutions and capacity, as well as willingness to embed climate change risk assessment and management in development strategies. These conditions do not yet exist universally. A focus that neglects to enhance capacity-building and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks. Reducing vulnerability is a key aspect of reducing climate change risk. To do so requires a new approach to climate change risk and a change in institutional structures and relationships. A focus on development that neglects to enhance governance and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks.
Warning times for species extinctions due to climate change.
Stanton, Jessica C; Shoemaker, Kevin T; Pearson, Richard G; Akçakaya, H Resit
2015-03-01
Climate change is likely to become an increasingly major obstacle to slowing the rate of species extinctions. Several new assessment approaches have been proposed for identifying climate-vulnerable species, based on the assumption that established systems such as the IUCN Red List need revising or replacing because they were not developed to explicitly consider climate change. However, no assessment approach has been tested to determine its ability to provide advanced warning time for conservation action for species that might go extinct due to climate change. To test the performance of the Red List system in this capacity, we used linked niche-demographic models with habitat dynamics driven by a 'business-as-usual' climate change scenario. We generated replicate 100-year trajectories for range-restricted reptiles and amphibians endemic to the United States. For each replicate, we categorized the simulated species according to IUCN Red List criteria at annual, 5-year, and 10-year intervals (the latter representing current practice). For replicates that went extinct, we calculated warning time as the number of years the simulated species was continuously listed in a threatened category prior to extinction. To simulate data limitations, we repeated the analysis using a single criterion at a time (disregarding other listing criteria). Results show that when all criteria can be used, the Red List system would provide several decades of warning time (median = 62 years; >20 years for 99% of replicates), but suggest that conservation actions should begin as soon as a species is listed as Vulnerable, because 50% of replicates went extinct within 20 years of becoming uplisted to Critically Endangered. When only one criterion was used, warning times were substantially shorter, but more frequent assessments increased the warning time by about a decade. Overall, we found that the Red List criteria reliably provide a sensitive and precautionary way to assess extinction
Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Idaho National Laboratory
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Christopher P. Ischay; Ernest L. Fossum; Polly C. Buotte
2014-10-01
The University of Idaho (UI) was asked to participate in the development of a climate change vulnerability assessment for Idaho National Laboratory (INL). This report describes the outcome of that assessment. The climate change happening now, due in large part to human activities, is expected to continue in the future. UI and INL used a common framework for assessing vulnerability that considers exposure (future climate change), sensitivity (system or component responses to climate), impact (exposure combined with sensitivity), and adaptive capacity (capability of INL to modify operations to minimize climate change impacts) to assess vulnerability. Analyses of climate change (exposure)more » revealed that warming that is ongoing at INL will continue in the coming decades, with increased warming in later decades and under scenarios of greater greenhouse gas emissions. Projections of precipitation are more uncertain, with multi model means exhibiting somewhat wetter conditions and more wet days per year. Additional impacts relevant to INL include estimates of more burned area and increased evaporation and transpiration, leading to reduced soil moisture and plant growth.« less
Climate change and forest diseases
R.N. Sturrock; Susan Frankel; A. V. Brown; Paul Hennon; J. T. Kliejunas; K. J. Lewis; J. J. Worrall; A. J. Woods
2011-01-01
As climate changes, the effects of forest diseases on forest ecosystems will change. We review knowledge of relationships between climate variables and several forest diseases, as well as current evidence of how climate, host and pathogen interactions are responding or might respond to climate change. Many forests can be managed to both adapt to climate change and...
Sensitivity of Ocean Chemistry and Oxygen Change to the Uncertainty in Climate Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cao, L.; Wang, S.; Zheng, M.; Zhang, H.
2014-12-01
With increasing atmospheric CO2 and climate change, global ocean is undergoing substantial physical and biogeochemical changes. In particular, changes in ocean oxygen and carbonate chemistry have great implication for marine biota. There is considerable uncertainty in the projections of future climate change, and it is unclear how the uncertainty in climate change would affect the projection of ocean oxygen and carbonate chemistry. To examine the effect of climate change on ocean oxygen and carbonate chemistry, we used an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to perform simulations that are driven by atmospheric CO2 concentration pathway of RCP 8.5 with climate sensitivity varying from 0.0°C to 4.5 °C. Climate change affects carbonate chemistry and oxygen mainly through its impact on ocean temperature, ocean ventilation, and concentration of dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity. Our simulations show that climate change mitigates the decrease of carbonate ions at the ocean surface but has negligible effect on surface ocean pH. Averaged over the whole ocean, climate change acts to decrease oxygen concentration but mitigates the CO2-induced reduction of carbonate ion and pH. In our simulations, by year 2500, every degree increase of climate sensitivity warms the ocean by 0.8 °C and reduces ocean-mean dissolved oxygen concentration by 5.0%. Meanwhile, every degree increase of climate sensitivity buffers CO2-induced reduction in ocean-mean carbonate ion concentration and pH by 3.4% and 0.02 units, respectively. Our study demonstrates different sensitivities of ocean temperature, carbonate chemistry, and oxygen, in terms of both the sign and magnitude, to the amount of climate change, which have great implications for understanding the response of ocean biota to climate change.
Regional climate change and national responsibilities
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko
2016-03-01
Global warming over the past several decades is now large enough that regional climate change is emerging above the noise of natural variability, especially in the summer at middle latitudes and year-round at low latitudes. Despite the small magnitude of warming relative to weather fluctuations, effects of the warming already have notable social and economic impacts. Global warming of 2 °C relative to preindustrial would shift the ‘bell curve’ defining temperature anomalies a factor of three larger than observed changes since the middle of the 20th century, with highly deleterious consequences. There is striking incongruity between the global distribution of nations principally responsible for fossil fuel CO2 emissions, known to be the main cause of climate change, and the regions suffering the greatest consequences from the warming, a fact with substantial implications for global energy and climate policies.
Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation
Toni Lyn Morelli; Christopher Daly; Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Deanna M. Dulen; Joseph L. Ebersole; Stephen T. Jackson; Jessica D. Lundquist; Connie Millar; Sean P. Maher; William B. Monahan; Koren R. Nydick; Kelly T. Redmond; Sarah C. Sawyer; Sarah Stock; Steven R. Beissinger
2016-01-01
Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that...
Some guidelines for helping natural resources adapt to climate change
Jill S. Baron; Susan Herrod Julius; Jordan M. West; Linda A. Joyce; Geoffrey Blate; Charles H. Peterson; Margaret Palmer; Brian D. Keller; Peter Kareiva; J. Michael Scott; Brad Griffith
2008-01-01
The changes occurring in mountain regions are an epitome of climate change. The dramatic shrinkage of major glaciers over the past century - and especially in the last 30 years - is one of several iconic images that have come to symbolize climate change.
Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in Kenya
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yator, J. J.
2016-12-01
This study sought to address the existing gap on the impact of climate change on food security in support of policy measures to avert famine catastrophes. Fixed and random effects regressions for crop food security were estimated. The study simulated the expected impact of future climate change on food insecurity based on the Representative Concentration Pathways scenario (RCPs). The study makes use of county-level yields estimates (beans, maize, millet and sorghum) and daily climate data (1971 to 2010). Climate variability affects food security irrespective of how food security is defined. Rainfall during October-November-December (OND), as well as during March-April-May (MAM) exhibit an inverted U-shaped relationship with most food crops; the effects are most pronounced for maize and sorghum. Beans and Millet are found to be largely unresponsive to climate variability and also to time-invariant factors. OND rains and fall and summer temperature exhibit a U-shaped relationship with yields for most crops, while MAM rains temperature exhibits an inverted U-shaped relationship. However, winter temperatures exhibit a hill-shaped relationship with most crops. Project future climate change scenarios on crop productivity show that climate change will adversely affect food security, with up to 69% decline in yields by the year 2100. Climate variables have a non-linear relationship with food insecurity. Temperature exhibits an inverted U-shaped relationship with food insecurity, suggesting that increased temperatures will increase crop food insecurity. However, maize and millet, benefit from increased summer and winter temperatures. The simulated effects of different climate change scenarios on food insecurity suggest that adverse climate change will increase food insecurity in Kenya. The largest increases in food insecurity are predicted for the RCP 8.5Wm2, compared to RCP 4.5Wm2. Climate change is likely to have the greatest effects on maize insecurity, which is likely
Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review
Thornton, Philip K; Ericksen, Polly J; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J
2014-01-01
The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. We present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. We consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. Key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. These include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest-weed-disease complexes. We highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. Improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively the effects of climate variability and extreme events on human vulnerability and food security, particularly in agriculturally based developing countries facing the challenge of having to feed rapidly growing populations in the coming decades. PMID:24668802
Variability of precipitation in Poland under climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Szwed, Małgorzata
2018-02-01
The surface warming has been widespread over the entire globe. Central Europe, including Poland, is not an exception. Global temperature increases are accompanied by changes in other climatic variables. Climate change in Poland manifests itself also as change in annual sums of precipitation. They have been slightly growing but, what is more important, seasonal and monthly distributions of precipitation have been also changing. The most visible increases have been observed during colder half-year, especially in March. A decreasing contribution of summer precipitation total (June-August) to the annual total is observed. Climate projections for Poland predict further warming and continuation of already observed changes in the quantity of precipitation as well as its spatial and seasonal distribution.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mannino, Marcello A.; Talamo, Sahra; Tagliacozzo, Antonio; Fiore, Ivana; Nehlich, Olaf; Piperno, Marcello; Tusa, Sebastiano; Collina, Carmine; di Salvo, Rosaria; Schimmenti, Vittoria; Richards, Michael P.
2015-11-01
Cetacean mass strandings occur regularly worldwide, yet the compounded effects of natural and anthropogenic factors often complicate our understanding of these phenomena. Evidence of past stranding episodes may, thus, be essential to establish the potential influence of climate change. Investigations on bones from the site of Grotta dell’Uzzo in North West Sicily (Italy) show that the rapid climate change around 8,200 years ago coincided with increased strandings in the Mediterranean Sea. Stable isotope analyses on collagen from a large sample of remains recovered at this cave indicate that Mesolithic hunter-gatherers relied little on marine resources. A human and a red fox dating to the 8.2-kyr-BP climatic event, however, acquired at least one third of their protein from cetaceans. Numerous carcasses should have been available annually, for at least a decade, to obtain these proportions of meat. Our findings imply that climate-driven environmental changes, caused by global warming, may represent a serious threat to cetaceans in the near future.
Mannino, Marcello A; Talamo, Sahra; Tagliacozzo, Antonio; Fiore, Ivana; Nehlich, Olaf; Piperno, Marcello; Tusa, Sebastiano; Collina, Carmine; Di Salvo, Rosaria; Schimmenti, Vittoria; Richards, Michael P
2015-11-17
Cetacean mass strandings occur regularly worldwide, yet the compounded effects of natural and anthropogenic factors often complicate our understanding of these phenomena. Evidence of past stranding episodes may, thus, be essential to establish the potential influence of climate change. Investigations on bones from the site of Grotta dell'Uzzo in North West Sicily (Italy) show that the rapid climate change around 8,200 years ago coincided with increased strandings in the Mediterranean Sea. Stable isotope analyses on collagen from a large sample of remains recovered at this cave indicate that Mesolithic hunter-gatherers relied little on marine resources. A human and a red fox dating to the 8.2-kyr-BP climatic event, however, acquired at least one third of their protein from cetaceans. Numerous carcasses should have been available annually, for at least a decade, to obtain these proportions of meat. Our findings imply that climate-driven environmental changes, caused by global warming, may represent a serious threat to cetaceans in the near future.
Mannino, Marcello A.; Talamo, Sahra; Tagliacozzo, Antonio; Fiore, Ivana; Nehlich, Olaf; Piperno, Marcello; Tusa, Sebastiano; Collina, Carmine; Di Salvo, Rosaria; Schimmenti, Vittoria; Richards, Michael P.
2015-01-01
Cetacean mass strandings occur regularly worldwide, yet the compounded effects of natural and anthropogenic factors often complicate our understanding of these phenomena. Evidence of past stranding episodes may, thus, be essential to establish the potential influence of climate change. Investigations on bones from the site of Grotta dell’Uzzo in North West Sicily (Italy) show that the rapid climate change around 8,200 years ago coincided with increased strandings in the Mediterranean Sea. Stable isotope analyses on collagen from a large sample of remains recovered at this cave indicate that Mesolithic hunter-gatherers relied little on marine resources. A human and a red fox dating to the 8.2-kyr-BP climatic event, however, acquired at least one third of their protein from cetaceans. Numerous carcasses should have been available annually, for at least a decade, to obtain these proportions of meat. Our findings imply that climate-driven environmental changes, caused by global warming, may represent a serious threat to cetaceans in the near future. PMID:26573384
Does the weather influence public opinion about climate change?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Donner, S. D.; McDaniel, J.
2010-12-01
Public opinion in North America about the science of anthropogenic climate change and the motivation for policy action has been variable over the past twenty years. The trends in public opinion over time have been attributed the general lack of pressing public concern about climate change to a range of political, economic and psychological factors. One driving force behind the variability in polling data from year to year may be the weather itself. The difference between what we “expect” - the climate - and what we “get” - the weather - can be a major source of confusion and obfuscation in the public discourse about climate change. For example, reaction to moderate global temperatures in 2007 and 2008 may have helped prompt the spread of a “global cooling” meme in the public and the news media. At the same time, a decrease in the belief in the science of climate change and the need for action has been noted in opinion polls. This study analyzes the relationship between public opinion about climate change and the weather in the U.S. since the mid-1980s using historical polling data from several major organizations (e.g. Gallup, Pew, Harris Interactive, ABC News), historical monthly air temperature (NCDC) and a survey of opinion articles from major U.S. newspapers (Washington Post, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Houston Chronicle, USA Today). Seasonal and annual monthly temperature anomalies for the northeastern U.S and the continental U.S are compared with available national opinion data for three general categories of questions: i) Is the climate warming?, ii) Is the observed warming due to human activity?, and iii) Are you concerned about climate change? The variability in temperature and public opinion over time is also compared with the variability in the fraction of opinion articles in the newspapers (n ~ 7000) which express general agreement or disagreement with IPCC Summary for Policymakers consensus statements on climate change (“most of
Scaling Climate Change Communication for Behavior Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rodriguez, V. C.; Lappé, M.; Flora, J. A.; Ardoin, N. M.; Robinson, T. N.
2014-12-01
Ultimately, effective climate change communication results in a change in behavior, whether the change is individual, household or collective actions within communities. We describe two efforts to promote climate-friendly behavior via climate communication and behavior change theory. Importantly these efforts are designed to scale climate communication principles focused on behavior change rather than soley emphasizing climate knowledge or attitudes. Both cases are embedded in rigorous evaluations (randomized controlled trial and quasi-experimental) of primary and secondary outcomes as well as supplementary analyses that have implications for program refinement and program scaling. In the first case, the Girl Scouts "Girls Learning Environment and Energy" (GLEE) trial is scaling the program via a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) for Troop Leaders to teach the effective home electricity and food and transportation energy reduction programs. The second case, the Alliance for Climate Education (ACE) Assembly Program, is advancing the already-scaled assembly program by using communication principles to further engage youth and their families and communities (school and local communities) in individual and collective actions. Scaling of each program uses online learning platforms, social media and "behavior practice" videos, mastery practice exercises, virtual feedback and virtual social engagement to advance climate-friendly behavior change. All of these communication practices aim to simulate and advance in-person train-the-trainers technologies.As part of this presentation we outline scaling principles derived from these two climate change communication and behavior change programs.
Climate Change & Social Justice: Why We Should Care
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nesbitt, Nathan T.
2015-03-01
In the past several years the global impacts brought about by climate change have become increasingly apparent through the advent of numerous natural disasters. In these events the social costs of climate change have materialized demonstrating high costs in lives, livelihoods, and equity. Due to geographic bad-luck many of the countries most affected by climate change are those that contributed least, a challenge that's exacerbated by a lack of robust infrastructure in these countries. Wealthy nations remain at risk themselves and incidents such as Hurricanes Sandy & Katrina have demonstrated that in times of crisis even institutions like the Red Cross will abandon the poor to their deaths. As necessary action on climate change would cost the fossil fuel industry 20 trillion, money in politics has stymied action. Recently, however, a groundswell grassroots movement (e.g. People's Climate March in NYC) and great strides in energy technology and policy have begun to create necessary change. Reports quantifying the impacts of climate change will be discussed, as well as an update on the current state of the global climate justice movement. The important contributions from scientists to this movement will be highlighted. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship under Grant No. (DGE-1258923).
Ebi, Kristie L; Paulson, Jerome A
2007-04-01
Climate change is increasing the burden of climate-sensitive health determinants and outcomes worldwide. Acting through increasing temperature, changes in the hydrologic cycle, and sea level rise, climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of heat events and extreme events (floods and droughts), change the geographic range and incidence of climate-sensitive vector-, food-, and waterborne diseases, and increase diseases associated with air pollution and aeroallergens. Children are particularly vulnerable to these health outcomes because of their potentially greater exposures, greater sensitivity to certain exposures, and their dependence on caregivers.
Marx, Werner; Haunschild, Robin; Thor, Andreas; Bornmann, Lutz
2017-01-01
This bibliometric analysis focuses on the general history of climate change research and, more specifically, on the discovery of the greenhouse effect. First, the Reference Publication Year Spectroscopy (RPYS) is applied to a large publication set on climate change of 222,060 papers published between 1980 and 2014. The references cited therein were extracted and analyzed with regard to publications, which are cited most frequently. Second, a new method for establishing a more subject-specific publication set for applying RPYS (based on the co-citations of a marker reference) is proposed (RPYS-CO). The RPYS of the climate change literature focuses on the history of climate change research in total. We identified 35 highly-cited publications across all disciplines, which include fundamental early scientific works of the nineteenth century (with a weak connection to climate change) and some cornerstones of science with a stronger connection to climate change. By using the Arrhenius (Philos Mag J Sci Ser 5(41):237-276, 1896) paper as a RPYS-CO marker paper, we selected only publications specifically discussing the discovery of the greenhouse effect and the role of carbon dioxide. Using different RPYS approaches in this study, we were able to identify the complete range of works of the celebrated icons as well as many less known works relevant for the history of climate change research. The analyses confirmed the potential of the RPYS method for historical studies: Seminal papers are detected on the basis of the references cited by the overall community without any further assumptions.
Climate Change Impact on Neotropical Social Wasps
Dejean, Alain; Céréghino, Régis; Carpenter, James M.; Corbara, Bruno; Hérault, Bruno; Rossi, Vivien; Leponce, Maurice; Orivel, Jérome; Bonal, Damien
2011-01-01
Establishing a direct link between climate change and fluctuations in animal populations through long-term monitoring is difficult given the paucity of baseline data. We hypothesized that social wasps are sensitive to climatic variations, and thus studied the impact of ENSO events on social wasp populations in French Guiana. We noted that during the 2000 La Niña year there was a 77.1% decrease in their nest abundance along ca. 5 km of forest edges, and that 70.5% of the species were no longer present. Two simultaneous 13-year surveys (1997–2009) confirmed the decrease in social wasps during La Niña years (2000 and 2006), while an increase occurred during the 2009 El Niño year. A 30-year weather survey showed that these phenomena corresponded to particularly high levels of rainfall, and that temperature, humidity and global solar radiation were correlated with rainfall. Using the Self-Organizing Map algorithm, we show that heavy rainfall during an entire rainy season has a negative impact on social wasps. Strong contrasts in rainfall between the dry season and the short rainy season exacerbate this effect. Social wasp populations never recovered to their pre-2000 levels. This is probably because these conditions occurred over four years; heavy rainfall during the major rainy seasons during four other years also had a detrimental effect. On the contrary, low levels of rainfall during the major rainy season in 2009 spurred an increase in social wasp populations. We conclude that recent climatic changes have likely resulted in fewer social wasp colonies because they have lowered the wasps' resistance to parasitoids and pathogens. These results imply that Neotropical social wasps can be regarded as bio-indicators because they highlight the impact of climatic changes not yet perceptible in plants and other animals. PMID:22073236
Climate change impact on neotropical social wasps.
Dejean, Alain; Céréghino, Régis; Carpenter, James M; Corbara, Bruno; Hérault, Bruno; Rossi, Vivien; Leponce, Maurice; Orivel, Jérome; Bonal, Damien
2011-01-01
Establishing a direct link between climate change and fluctuations in animal populations through long-term monitoring is difficult given the paucity of baseline data. We hypothesized that social wasps are sensitive to climatic variations, and thus studied the impact of ENSO events on social wasp populations in French Guiana. We noted that during the 2000 La Niña year there was a 77.1% decrease in their nest abundance along ca. 5 km of forest edges, and that 70.5% of the species were no longer present. Two simultaneous 13-year surveys (1997-2009) confirmed the decrease in social wasps during La Niña years (2000 and 2006), while an increase occurred during the 2009 El Niño year. A 30-year weather survey showed that these phenomena corresponded to particularly high levels of rainfall, and that temperature, humidity and global solar radiation were correlated with rainfall. Using the Self-Organizing Map algorithm, we show that heavy rainfall during an entire rainy season has a negative impact on social wasps. Strong contrasts in rainfall between the dry season and the short rainy season exacerbate this effect. Social wasp populations never recovered to their pre-2000 levels. This is probably because these conditions occurred over four years; heavy rainfall during the major rainy seasons during four other years also had a detrimental effect. On the contrary, low levels of rainfall during the major rainy season in 2009 spurred an increase in social wasp populations. We conclude that recent climatic changes have likely resulted in fewer social wasp colonies because they have lowered the wasps' resistance to parasitoids and pathogens. These results imply that Neotropical social wasps can be regarded as bio-indicators because they highlight the impact of climatic changes not yet perceptible in plants and other animals.
The velocity of climate change.
Loarie, Scott R; Duffy, Philip B; Hamilton, Healy; Asner, Gregory P; Field, Christopher B; Ackerly, David D
2009-12-24
The ranges of plants and animals are moving in response to recent changes in climate. As temperatures rise, ecosystems with 'nowhere to go', such as mountains, are considered to be more threatened. However, species survival may depend as much on keeping pace with moving climates as the climate's ultimate persistence. Here we present a new index of the velocity of temperature change (km yr(-1)), derived from spatial gradients ( degrees C km(-1)) and multimodel ensemble forecasts of rates of temperature increase ( degrees C yr(-1)) in the twenty-first century. This index represents the instantaneous local velocity along Earth's surface needed to maintain constant temperatures, and has a global mean of 0.42 km yr(-1) (A1B emission scenario). Owing to topographic effects, the velocity of temperature change is lowest in mountainous biomes such as tropical and subtropical coniferous forests (0.08 km yr(-1)), temperate coniferous forest, and montane grasslands. Velocities are highest in flooded grasslands (1.26 km yr(-1)), mangroves and deserts. High velocities suggest that the climates of only 8% of global protected areas have residence times exceeding 100 years. Small protected areas exacerbate the problem in Mediterranean-type and temperate coniferous forest biomes. Large protected areas may mitigate the problem in desert biomes. These results indicate management strategies for minimizing biodiversity loss from climate change. Montane landscapes may effectively shelter many species into the next century. Elsewhere, reduced emissions, a much expanded network of protected areas, or efforts to increase species movement may be necessary.
Grapevine phenology and climate change in Georgia.
Cola, G; Failla, O; Maghradze, D; Megrelidze, L; Mariani, L
2017-04-01
While the climate of Western Europe has been deeply affected by the abrupt climate change that took place in the late '1980s of the twentieth century, a similar signal is detected only few years later, in 1994, in Georgia. Grapevine phenology is deeply influenced by climate and this paper aimed to analyze how phenological timing changed before and after the climatic change of 1994. Availability of thermal resources in the two climatic phases for the five altitudinal belts in the 0-1250-m range was analyzed. A phenological dataset gathered in two experimental sites during the period 2012-2014, and a suitable thermal dataset was used to calibrate a phenological model based on the normal approach and able to describe BBCH phenological stages 61 (beginning of flowering), 71 (fruit set), and 81 (veraison). Calibration was performed for four relevant Georgian varieties (Mtsvane Kakhuri, Rkatsiteli, Ojaleshi, and Saperavi). The model validation was performed on an independent 3-year dataset gathered in Gorizia (Italy). Furthermore, in the case of variety Rkatsiteli, the model was applied to the 1974-2013 thermal time series in order to obtain phenological maps of the Georgian territory. Results show that after the climate change of 1994, Rkatsiteli showed an advance, more relevant at higher altitudes where the whole increase of thermal resource was effectively translated in phenological advance. For instance the average advance of veraison was 5.9 days for 250-500 m asl belt and 18.1 days for 750-1000 m asl). On the other hand, at lower altitudes, phenological advance was depleted by superoptimal temperatures. As a final result, some suggestions for the adaptation of viticultural practices to the current climatic phase are provided.
Attribution of glacier fluctuations to climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Oerlemans, J.
2012-04-01
Glacier retreat is a worlwide phenomenon, which started around the middle of the 19th century. During the period 1800-1850 the number of retreating and advancing glaciers was roughly equal (based on 42 records from different continents). During the period 1850-1900 about 92% of all mountain glaciers became shorter (based on 65 records). After this, the percentage of shrinking glaciers has been around 90% until the present time. The glacier signal is rather coherent over the globe, especially when surging and calving glaciers are not considered (for such glaciers the response to climate change is often masked by length changes related to internal dynamics). From theoretical studies as well as extensive meteorological work on glaciers, the processes that control the response of glaciers to climate change are now basically understood. It is useful to make a difference between geometric factors (e.g. slope, altitudinal range, hypsometry) and climatic setting (e.g. seasonal cycle, precipitation). The most sensitive glaciers appear to be flat glaciers in a maritime climate. Characterizing the dynamic properties of a glacier requires at least two quantities: the climate sensitivity, expressing how the equilibrium glacier state depends on the climatic conditions, and the response time, indicating how fast a glacier approaches a new equilibrium state after a stepwise change in the climatic forcing. These quantities can be estimated from relatively simple theory, showing that differences among glaciers are substantial. For larger glaciers, climate sensitivities (in terms of glacier length) vary from 1 to 8 km per 100 m change in the equilibrium-line altitude. Response times are mainly in the range of 20 to 200 years, with most values between 30 and 80 years. Changes in the equilibrium-line altitude or net mass balance of a glacier are mainly driven by fluctuations in air temperature, precipitation, and global radiation. Energy-balance modelling for many glaciers shows that
Potential impact of global climate change on malaria risk
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Martens, W.J.M.; Rotmans, J.; Niessen, L.W.
The biological activity and geographic distribution of the malarial parasite and its vector are sensitive to climatic influences, especially temperature and precipitation. We have incorporated General Circulation Model-based scenarios of anthropogenic global climate change in an integrated linked-system model for predicting changes in malaria epidemic potential in the next century. The concept of the disability-adjusted life years is included to arrive at a single measure of the effect of anthropogenic climate change on the health impact of malaria. Assessment of the potential impact of global climate change on the incidence of malaria suggests a widespread increase of risk due tomore » expansion of the areas suitable for malaria transmission. This predicted increase is most pronounced at the borders of endemic malaria areas and at higher altitudes within malarial areas. The incidence of infection is sensitive to climate changes in areas of Southeast Asia, South America, and parts of Africa where the disease is less endemic; in these regions the numbers of years of healthy life lost may increase significantly. However, the simulated changes in malaria risk must be interpreted on the basis of local environmental conditions, the effects of socioeconomic developments, and malaria control programs or capabilities. 33 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.« less
Transatlantic flight times and climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Williams, Paul
2016-04-01
Aircraft do not fly through a vacuum, but through an atmosphere whose meteorological characteristics are changing because of global warming. The impacts of aviation on climate change have long been recognised, but the impacts of climate change on aviation have only recently begun to emerge. These impacts include intensified turbulence (Williams and Joshi 2013) and increased take-off weight restrictions. A forthcoming study (Williams 2016) investigates the influence of climate change on flight routes and journey times. This is achieved by feeding synthetic atmospheric wind fields generated from climate model simulations into a routing algorithm of the type used operationally by flight planners. The focus is on transatlantic flights between London and New York, and how they change when the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide is doubled. It is found that a strengthening of the prevailing jet-stream winds causes eastbound flights to significantly shorten and westbound flights to significantly lengthen in all seasons, causing round-trip journey times to increase. Eastbound and westbound crossings in winter become approximately twice as likely to take under 5h 20m and over 7h 00m, respectively. The early stages of this effect perhaps contributed to a well-publicised British Airways flight from New York to London on 8 January 2015, which took a record time of only 5h 16m because of a strong tailwind from an unusually fast jet stream. Even assuming no future growth in aviation, extrapolation of our results to all transatlantic traffic suggests that aircraft may collectively be airborne for an extra 2,000 hours each year, burning an extra 7.2 million gallons of jet fuel at a cost of US 22 million, and emitting an extra 70 million kg of carbon dioxide. These findings provide further evidence of the two-way interaction between aviation and climate change. References Williams PD (2016) Transatlantic flight times and climate change. Environmental Research Letters, in
Disturbances catalyze the adaptation of forest ecosystems to changing climate conditions
Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert
2016-01-01
The rates of anthropogenic climate change substantially exceed those at which forest ecosystems – dominated by immobile, long-lived organisms – are able to adapt. The resulting maladaptation of forests has potentially detrimental effects on ecosystem functioning. Furthermore, as many forest-dwelling species are highly dependent on the prevailing tree species, a delayed response of the latter to a changing climate can contribute to an extinction debt and mask climate-induced biodiversity loss. However, climate change will likely also intensify forest disturbances. Here, we tested the hypothesis that disturbances foster the reorganization of ecosystems and catalyze the adaptation of forest composition to climate change. Our specific objectives were (i) to quantify the rate of autonomous forest adaptation to climate change, (ii) examine the role of disturbance in the adaptation process, and (iii) investigate spatial differences in climate-induced species turnover in an unmanaged mountain forest landscape (Kalkalpen National Park, Austria). Simulations with a process-based forest landscape model were performed for 36 unique combinations of climate and disturbance scenarios over 1000 years. We found that climate change strongly favored European beech and oak species (currently prevailing in mid- to low-elevation areas), with novel species associations emerging on the landscape. Yet, it took between 357 and 706 years before the landscape attained a dynamic equilibrium with the climate system. Disturbances generally catalyzed adaptation and decreased the time needed to attain equilibrium by up to 211 years. However, while increasing disturbance frequency and severity accelerated adaptation, increasing disturbance size had the opposite effect. Spatial analyses suggest that particularly the lowest and highest elevation areas will be hotspots of future species change. We conclude that the growing maladaptation of forests to climate and the long lead times of autonomous
Opinions and knowledge about climate change science in high school students.
Harker-Schuch, Inez; Bugge-Henriksen, Christian
2013-10-01
This study investigates the influence of knowledge on opinions about climate change in the emerging adults' age group (16-17 years). Furthermore, the effects of a lecture in climate change science on knowledge and opinions were assessed. A survey was conducted in Austria and Denmark on 188 students in national and international schools before and after a lecture in climate change science. The results show that knowledge about climate change science significantly affects opinions about climate change. Students with a higher number of correct answers are more likely to have the opinion that humans are causing climate change and that both individuals and governments are responsible for addressing climate change. The lecture in climate change science significantly improved knowledge development but did not affect opinions. Knowledge was improved by 11 % after the lecture. However, the percentage of correct answers was still below 60 % indicating an urgent need for improving climate change science education.
Climate@Home: Crowdsourcing Climate Change Research
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Xu, C.; Yang, C.; Li, J.; Sun, M.; Bambacus, M.
2011-12-01
Climate change deeply impacts human wellbeing. Significant amounts of resources have been invested in building super-computers that are capable of running advanced climate models, which help scientists understand climate change mechanisms, and predict its trend. Although climate change influences all human beings, the general public is largely excluded from the research. On the other hand, scientists are eagerly seeking communication mediums for effectively enlightening the public on climate change and its consequences. The Climate@Home project is devoted to connect the two ends with an innovative solution: crowdsourcing climate computing to the general public by harvesting volunteered computing resources from the participants. A distributed web-based computing platform will be built to support climate computing, and the general public can 'plug-in' their personal computers to participate in the research. People contribute the spare computing power of their computers to run a computer model, which is used by scientists to predict climate change. Traditionally, only super-computers could handle such a large computing processing load. By orchestrating massive amounts of personal computers to perform atomized data processing tasks, investments on new super-computers, energy consumed by super-computers, and carbon release from super-computers are reduced. Meanwhile, the platform forms a social network of climate researchers and the general public, which may be leveraged to raise climate awareness among the participants. A portal is to be built as the gateway to the climate@home project. Three types of roles and the corresponding functionalities are designed and supported. The end users include the citizen participants, climate scientists, and project managers. Citizen participants connect their computing resources to the platform by downloading and installing a computing engine on their personal computers. Computer climate models are defined at the server side. Climate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Heinke, J.; Ostberg, S.; Schaphoff, S.; Frieler, K.; Müller, C.; Gerten, D.; Meinshausen, M.; Lucht, W.
2013-10-01
In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob) has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines, systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalised patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilise a simplified relationships between ΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper) facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.
The Pace of Perceivable Extreme Climate Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tan, X.; Gan, T. Y.
2015-12-01
When will the signal of obvious changes in extreme climate emerge over climate variability (Time of Emergence, ToE) is a key question for planning and implementing measures to mitigate the potential impact of climate change to natural and human systems that are generally adapted to potential changes from current variability. We estimated ToEs for the magnitude, duration and frequency of global extreme climate represented by 24 extreme climate indices (16 for temperature and 8 for precipitation) with different thresholds of the signal-to-noise (S/N) ratio based on projections of CMIP5 global climate models under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 for the 21st century. The uncertainty of ToE is assessed by using 3 different methods to calculate S/N for each extreme index. Results show that ToEs of the projected extreme climate indices based on the RCP4.5 climate scenarios are generally projected to happen about 20 years later than that for the RCP8.5 climate scenarios. Under RCP8.5, the projected magnitude, duration and frequency of extreme temperature on Earth will all exceed 2 standard deviations by 2100, and the empirical 50th percentile of the global ToE for the frequency and magnitude of hot (cold) extreme are about 2040 and 2054 (2064 and 2054) for S/N > 2, respectively. The 50th percentile of global ToE for the intensity of extreme precipitation is about 2030 and 2058 for S/N >0.5 and S/N >1, respectively. We further evaluated the exposure of ecosystems and human societies to the pace of extreme climate change by determining the year of ToE for various extreme climate indices projected to occur over terrestrial biomes, marine realms and major urban areas with large populations. This was done by overlaying terrestrial, ecoregions and population maps with maps of ToE derived, to extract ToEs for these regions. Possible relationships between GDP per person and ToE are also investigated by relating the mean ToE for each country and its average value of GDP per person.
Potential reciprocal effect between land use / land cover change and climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Daham, Afrah; Han, Dawei; Rico-Ramirez, Miguel
2016-04-01
Land use/land cover (LULC) activity influences climate change and one way to explore climate change is to analyse the change in LULC patterns. Modelling the Spatio-temporal pattern of LULC change requires the use of satellite remote sensing data and aerial photographs with different pre-processing steps. The aim of this research is to analyse the reciprocal effects of LUCC (Land Use and Cover Change) and the climate change on each other in the study area which covers part of Bristol, South Gloucestershire, Bath and Somerset in England for the period (1975-2015). LUCC is assessed using remote sensing data. Three sets of remotely sensed data, LanSAT-1 Multispectral Scanner (MSS) data obtained in (1975 and 1976), LanSAT-5 Thematic Mapper (TM) data obtained in (1984 and 1997), and LandSAT-7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) acquired in (2003 and 2015), with a time span of forty years were used in the study. One of the most common problems in the satellite images is the presence of cloud covers. In this study, the cloud cover problem is handled using a novel algorithm, which is capable of reducing the cloud coverage in the classified images significantly. This study also examines a suite of possible photogrammetry techniques applicable to detect the change in LULC. At the moment photogrammertic techniques are used to derive the ground truth for supervised classification from the high resolution aerial photos which were provided by Ordnance Survey (contract number: 240215) and global mapper for the years in (2001 and 2014). After obtaining the classified images almost free of clouds, accuracy assessment is implemented with the derived classified images using confusion matrix at some ground truth points. Eight classes (Improved grassland, Built up areas and gardens, Arable and horticulture, Broad-leaved / mixed woodland, Coniferous woodland, Oceanic seas, Standing open water and reservoir, and Mountain; heath; bog) have been classified in the chosen study area. Also
Drought, Climate Change and Potential Agricultural Productivity
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sheffield, J.; Herrera-Estrada, J. E.; Caylor, K. K.; Wood, E. F.
2011-12-01
Drought is a major factor in agricultural productivity, especially in developing regions where the capacity for water resources management is limited and climate variability ensures that drought is recurrent and problematic. Recent events in East Africa are testament to this, where drought conditions that have slowly developed over multiple years have contributed to reduced productivity and ultimately food crises and famine. Prospects for the future are not promising given ongoing problems of dwindling water supplies from non-renewable sources and the potential for increased water scarcity and increased drought with climate change. This is set against the expected increase in population by over 2 billion people by 2050 and rise in food demand, coupled with changes in demographics that affect food choices and increases in non-food agriculture. In this talk we discuss the global variability of drought over the 20th century and recent years, and the projected changes over the 21st century, and how this translates into changes in potential agricultural productivity. Drought is quantified using land surface hydrological models driven by a hybrid reanalysis-observational meteorological forcing dataset. Drought is defined in terms of anomalies of hydroclimatic variables, in particular precipitation, evaporation and soil moisture, and we calculate changes in various drought characteristics. Potential agricultural productivity is derived from the balance of precipitation to crop water demand, where demand is based on potential evaporation and crop coefficients for a range of staple crops. Some regional examples are shown of historic variations in drought and potential productivity, and the estimated water deficit for various crops. The multitude of events over the past decade, including heat waves in Europe, fires in Russia, long-term drought in northern China, southeast Australia, the Western US and a series of droughts in the Amazon and Argentina, hint at the influence of
Chen, Han Y H; Luo, Yong; Reich, Peter B; Searle, Eric B; Biswas, Shekhar R
2016-09-01
The impacts of climate change on forest net biomass change are poorly understood but critical for predicting forest's contribution to the global carbon cycle. Recent studies show climate change-associated net biomass declines in mature forest plots. The representativeness of these plots for regional forests, however, remains uncertain because we lack an assessment of whether climate change impacts differ with forest age. Using data from plots of varying ages from 17 to 210 years, monitored from 1958 to 2011 in western Canada, we found that climate change has little effect on net biomass change in forests ≤ 40 years of age due to increased growth offsetting increased mortality, but has led to large decreases in older forests due to increased mortality accompanying little growth gain. Our analysis highlights the need to incorporate forest age profiles in examining past and projecting future forest responses to climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.
NPOESS, Essential Climates Variables and Climate Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Forsythe-Newell, S. P.; Bates, J. J.; Barkstrom, B. R.; Privette, J. L.; Kearns, E. J.
2008-12-01
Advancement in understanding, predicting and mitigating against climate change implies collaboration, close monitoring of Essential Climate Variable (ECV)s through development of Climate Data Record (CDR)s and effective action with specific thematic focus on human and environmental impacts. Towards this end, NCDC's Scientific Data Stewardship (SDS) Program Office developed Climate Long-term Information and Observation system (CLIO) for satellite data identification, characterization and use interrogation. This "proof-of-concept" online tool provides the ability to visualize global CDR information gaps and overlaps with options to temporally zoom-in from satellite instruments to climate products, data sets, data set versions and files. CLIO provides an intuitive one-stop web site that displays past, current and planned launches of environmental satellites in conjunction with associated imagery and detailed information. This tool is also capable of accepting and displaying Web-based input from Subject Matter Expert (SME)s providing a global to sub-regional scale perspective of all ECV's and their impacts upon climate studies. SME's can access and interact with temporal data from the past and present, or for future planning of products, datasets/dataset versions, instruments, platforms and networks. CLIO offers quantifiable prioritization of ECV/CDR impacts that effectively deal with climate change issues, their associated impacts upon climate, and this offers an intuitively objective collaboration and consensus building tool. NCDC's latest tool empowers decision makers and the scientific community to rapidly identify weaknesses and strengths in climate change monitoring strategies and significantly enhances climate change collaboration and awareness.
Talking Climate Science in a Changing Media Landscape
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cullen, H. M.
2014-12-01
Founded in 2008 by leading scientists and communications experts at Princeton, Yale and Stanford, Climate Central brings together award-winning journalists and internationally recognized scientists to report the science and impacts of climate change through its research and journalism programs. Climate Central works to tackle the misperception that climate change is a distant thing - affecting other people and other places - by demonstrating the local and personal impacts of global warming. This talk will focus on describing three important Climate Central initiatives. First, our Climate Matters program delivers localized climate information at the regional and local level to weathercasters around the U.S., providing ready-to-use, broadcast quality graphics and analyses that put climate change in a local context. After three years, the program has grown from a pilot with just one TV meteorologist in Columbia, South Carolina to a network of more than 150 weathercasters across the country. Climate Central was also closely involved in the development and production of Years of Living Dangerously - a 9-part global warming documentary that premiered in April 2014. Finally, the World Weather Attribution project is a new initiative that aims to identify the human fingerprint in certain types of extreme weather events, including sea level rise and its contribution to storm surges, extreme heat events, heavy rainfall events/flooding, and drought. Our goal is to objectively and transparently assess certain extreme events and equip journalists and scientists with the tools to provide the larger global warming context in real-time while there is still media interest.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shiklomanov, Nikolay; Streletskiy, Dmitry; Swales, Timothy
2014-05-01
Planned socio-economic development during the Soviet period promoted migration into the Arctic and work force consolidation in urbanized settlements to support mineral resources extraction and transportation industries. These policies have resulted in very high level of urbanization in the Soviet Arctic. Despite the mass migration from the northern regions during the 1990s following the collapse of the Soviet Union and the diminishing government support, the Russian Arctic population remains predominantly urban. In five Russian Administrative regions underlined by permafrost and bordering the Arctic Ocean 66 to 82% (depending on region) of the total population is living in Soviet-era urban communities. The political, economic and demographic changes in the Russian Arctic over the last 20 years are further complicated by climate change which is greatly amplified in the Arctic region. One of the most significant impacts of climate change on arctic urban landscapes is the warming and degradation of permafrost which negatively affects the structural integrity of infrastructure. The majority of structures in the Russian Arctic are built according to the passive principle, which promotes equilibrium between the permafrost thermal regime and infrastructure foundations. This presentation is focused on quantitative assessment of potential changes in stability of Russian urban infrastructure built on permafrost in response to ongoing and future climatic changes using permafrost - geotechnical model forced by GCM-projected climate. To address the uncertainties in GCM projections we have utilized results from 6 models participated in most recent IPCC model inter-comparison project. The analysis was conducted for entire extent of Russian permafrost-affected area and on several representative urban communities. Our results demonstrate that significant observed reduction in urban infrastructure stability throughout the Russian Arctic can be attributed to climatic changes and that
Improving Climate Change Communication Skills through Community Outreach
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hanrahan, J.
2015-12-01
While many undergraduate Atmospheric Science departments are expanding their curriculums to focus on the science of climate change, often overlooked is the need to educate students about how this topic can be effectively communicated to others. It has become increasingly difficult for young scientists to comfortably discuss this polarizing topic with people outside of the classroom. To address this, Atmospheric Science faculty at Lyndon State College are providing undergraduate students the opportunity to practice this important skill by reaching out to the local community. Over the past year, students have been meeting regularly to discuss climate change and its impacts, and to present this information to the general public at local schools and organizations. The group was organized with the primary goal of teaching undergraduate students about effective ways to communicate basic climate science to nonscientists, but to also improve public understanding of anthropogenic climate change while starting a conversation among young people in the community. We will identify lessons learned after one year, discuss effective strategies, and summarize student feedback.
Climate Change: The Evidence and Our Options
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Thompson, Lonnie G.
2010-01-01
Glaciers serve as early indicators of climate change. Over the last 35 years, our research team has recovered ice-core records of climatic and environmental variations from the polar regions and from low-latitude high-elevation ice fields from 16 countries. The ongoing widespread melting of high-elevation glaciers and ice caps, particularly in low…
Bringing air pollution into the climate change equation.
Pettersen, Marit Viktoria; Fleck, Fiona
2014-08-01
As countries gear up for a major round of international climate talks next year in Paris, the growing problem of air pollution is fast becoming a vital part of the climate change and health debate. Fiona Fleck talks to Marit Viktoria Pettersen.
The climate change and energy security nexus
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
King, Marcus Dubois; Gulledge, Jay
2013-01-01
The study of the impacts of climate change on national and interna-tional security has grown as a research field, particularly in the last five years. Within this broad field, academic scholarship has concentrated primarily on whether climate change is, or may become, a driver of violent conflict. This relationship remains highly contested. However, national security policy and many non-governmental organizations have identified climate change as a threat multiplier in conflict situations. The U.S. Department of Defense and the United Kingdom's Ministry of Defense have incorporated these findings into strategic planning documents such as the Quadrennial Defense Review and the Strategicmore » Defence and Security Review. In contrast to the climate-conflict nexus, our analysis found that academic scholarship on the climate change and energy security nexus is small and more disciplinarily focused. In fact, a search of social science litera-ture found few sources, with a significant percentage of these works attribut-able to a single journal. Assuming that policymakers are more likely to rely on broader social science literature than technical or scientific journals, this leaves a limited foundation. This then begged the question: what are these sources? We identified a body of grey literature on the nexus of climate change and energy security of a greater size than the body of peer-reviewed social science literature. We reviewed fifty-eight recent reports, issue briefs, and transcripts to better understand the nexus of climate change and energy security, as well as to gain insight about the questions policymakers need answered by those undertaking the research. In this article, we describe the nature of the sources reviewed, highlight possible climate change and energy security linkages found within those sources, identify emerging risks, and offer conclusions that can guide further research.« less
Effect of climate change on morphology around a port
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bharathan Radhamma, R.; Deo, M. C.
2017-12-01
It is well known that with the construction of a port and harbour structure the natural shoreline gets interrupted and this disturbs the surrounding coastal morphology. Added to this concern is another one of recent origin, namely, the likely impact of climate change induced by global warming. The present work addresses this issue by describing a case study at New Mangalore Port situated along the west coast of India. The harbour was formed by constructing two breakwaters along either side of the port since the year 1975. We have first determined the rate of change of the shoreline surrounding the port using historic satellite imageries over a period of 36 years. Thereafter a numerical shoreline change model: LITPACK was used to do the same and it was forced by waves simulated over a period of past 36 years varying from 1979 to 2016 and future 36 years ranging from 2016 to 2052. The wave simulation was done with the help of numerical wave model: Mike21-SW which was driven by the wind from a regional climate model called CORDEX. This climate model was earlier run for a moderate global warming pathway called: RCP-4.5. The analysis of satellite imageries indicated that in the past the shoreline change varied from -1.69 m/year to 2.56 m/year with an uncertainty of ± 0.35 m/year and approximately half of the coastal stretch faced extensive erosion. It was found that the wind and waves at this region would intensify in future and also raise the probability of occurrence of high waves. As per the numerical shoreline modelling this would give rise to a much enhanced rate of erosion, namely -2.87 m/year to -3.62 m/year. This would call for a modified shoreline management strategy around the port area. The study highlights the importance of considering potential changes in wind and wave forcing because of the climate change in evaluating future rates of shoreline changes around a port and harbour structure.
Climate Change Adaptation: Putting Principles into Practice
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ausden, Malcolm
2014-10-01
Carrying out wildlife conservation in a changing climate requires planning on long timescales at both a site and network level, while also having the flexibility to adapt actions at sites over short timescales in response to changing conditions and new information. The Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), a land-owning wildlife conservation charity in the UK, achieves this on its nature reserves through its system of management planning. This involves setting network-wide objectives which inform the 25-year vision and 5-year conservation objectives for each site. Progress toward achieving each site's conservation objectives is reviewed annually, to identify any adjustments which might be needed to the site's management. The conservation objectives and 25-year vision of each site are reviewed every 5 years. Significant long-term impacts of climate change most frequently identified at RSPB reserves are: loss of intertidal habitat through coastal squeeze, loss of low-lying islands due to higher sea levels and coastal erosion, loss of coastal freshwater and brackish wetlands due to increased coastal flooding, and changes in the hydrology of wetlands. The main types of adaptation measures in place on RSPB reserves to address climate change-related impacts are: re-creation of intertidal habitat, re-creation and restoration of freshwater wetlands away from vulnerable coastal areas, blocking artificial drainage on peatlands, and addressing pressures on freshwater supply for lowland wet grasslands in eastern and southeastern England. Developing partnerships between organizations has been crucial in delivering large-scale adaptation projects.
The neurobiology of climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
O'Donnell, Sean
2018-02-01
Directional climate change (global warming) is causing rapid alterations in animals' environments. Because the nervous system is at the forefront of animals' interactions with the environment, the neurobiological implications of climate change are central to understanding how individuals, and ultimately populations, will respond to global warming. Evidence is accumulating for individual level, mechanistic effects of climate change on nervous system development and performance. Climate change can also alter sensory stimuli, changing the effectiveness of sensory and cognitive systems for achieving biological fitness. At the population level, natural selection forces stemming from directional climate change may drive rapid evolutionary change in nervous system structure and function.
The neurobiology of climate change.
O'Donnell, Sean
2018-01-06
Directional climate change (global warming) is causing rapid alterations in animals' environments. Because the nervous system is at the forefront of animals' interactions with the environment, the neurobiological implications of climate change are central to understanding how individuals, and ultimately populations, will respond to global warming. Evidence is accumulating for individual level, mechanistic effects of climate change on nervous system development and performance. Climate change can also alter sensory stimuli, changing the effectiveness of sensory and cognitive systems for achieving biological fitness. At the population level, natural selection forces stemming from directional climate change may drive rapid evolutionary change in nervous system structure and function.
Signs of the Land: Reaching Arctic Communities Facing Climate Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sparrow, E. B.; Chase, M. J.; Demientieff, S.; Pfirman, S. L.; Brunacini, J.
2014-12-01
In July 2014, a diverse and intergenerational group of Alaskan Natives came together on Howard Luke's Galee'ya Camp by the Tanana River in Fairbanks, Alaska to talk about climate change and it's impacts on local communities. Over a period of four days, the Signs of the Land Climate Change Camp wove together traditional knowledge, local observations, Native language, and climate science through a mix of storytelling, presentations, dialogue, and hands-on, community-building activities. This camp adapted the model developed several years ago under the Association for Interior Native Educators (AINE)'s Elder Academy. Part of the Polar Learning and Responding Climate Change Education Partnership, the Signs of the Land Climate Change Camp was developed and conducted collaboratively with multiple partners to test a model for engaging indigenous communities in the co-production of climate change knowledge, communication tools, and solutions-building. Native Alaskans have strong subsistence and cultural connections to the land and its resources, and, in addition to being keen observers of their environment, have a long history of adapting to changing conditions. Participants in the camp included Elders, classroom teachers, local resource managers and planners, community members, and climate scientists. Based on their experiences during the camp, participants designed individualized outreach plans for bringing culturally-responsive climate learning to their communities and classrooms throughout the upcoming year. Plans included small group discussions, student projects, teacher training, and conference presentations.
Changing Climates @ Colorado State: 100 (Multidisciplinary) Views of Climate Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Campbell, S.; Calderazzo, J.; Changing Climates, Cmmap Education; Diversity Team
2011-12-01
We would like to talk about a multidisciplinary education and outreach program we co-direct at Colorado State University, with support from an NSF-funded STC, CMMAP, the Center for Multiscale Modeling of Atmospheric Processes. We are working to raise public literacy about climate change by providing information that is high quality, up to date, thoroughly multidisciplinary, and easy for non-specialists to understand. Our primary audiences are college-level students, their teachers, and the general public. Our motto is Climate Change is Everybody's Business. To encourage and help our faculty infuse climate-change content into their courses, we have organized some 115 talks given by as many different speakers-speakers drawn from 28 academic departments, all 8 colleges at CSU, and numerous other entities from campus, the community, and farther afield. We began with a faculty-teaching-faculty series and then broadened our attentions to the whole campus and surrounding community. Some talks have been for narrowly focused audiences such as extension agents who work on energy, but most are for more eclectic groups of students, staff, faculty, and citizens. We count heads at most events, and our current total is roughly 6,000. We have created a website (http://changingclimates.colostate.edu) that includes videotapes of many of these talks, short videos we have created, and annotated sources that we judge to be accurate, interesting, clearly written, and aimed at non-specialists, including books, articles and essays, websites, and a few items specifically for college teachers (such as syllabi). Pages of the website focus on such topics as how the climate works / how it changes; what's happening / what might happen; natural ecosystems; agriculture; impacts on people; responses from ethics, art, literature; communication; daily life; policy; energy; and-pulling all the pieces together-the big picture. We have begun working on a new series of very short videos that can be
Experimentation with a Socio-Constructivist Process for Climate Change Education
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Pruneau, Diane; Gravel, Helene; Bourque, Wendy; Langis, Joanne
2003-01-01
A socio-constructivist and experiential process for climate change education was experimented within two coastal communities of Eastern Canada with 39 students 13 and 14 years of age. The pedagogical process, based on local observation of climate change, Duit's conceptual change theory (1999) and experiential learning, aimed for the improvement of…
Public Engagement on Climate Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Curry, J.
2011-12-01
Climate change communication is complicated by complexity of the scientific problem, multiple perspectives on the magnitude of the risk from climate change, often acrimonious disputes between scientists, high stakes policy options, and overall politicization of the issue. Efforts to increase science literacy as a route towards persuasion around the need for a policy like cap and trade have failed, because the difficulty that a scientist has in attempting to make sense of the social and political complexity is very similar to the complexity facing the general public as they try to make sense of climate science itself. In this talk I argue for a shift from scientists and their institutions as information disseminators to that of public engagement and enablers of public participation. The goal of engagement is not just to inform, but to enable, motivate and educate the public regarding the technical, political, and social dimensions of climate change. Engagement is a two-way process where experts and decision-makers seek input and learn from the public about preferences, needs, insights, and ideas relative to climate change impacts, vulnerabilities, solutions and policy options. Effective public engagement requires that scientists detach themselves from trying to control what the public does with the acquired knowledge and motivation. The goal should not be to "sell" the public on particular climate change solutions, since such advocacy threatens public trust in scientists and their institutions. Conduits for public engagement include the civic engagement approach in the context of community meetings, and perhaps more significantly, the blogosphere. Since 2006, I have been an active participant in the climate blogosphere, focused on engaging with people that are skeptical of AGW. A year ago, I started my own blog Climate Etc. at judithcurry.com. The demographic that I have focused my communication/engagement activities are the technically educated and scientifically
Public Health Nurses’ Knowledge and Attitudes Regarding Climate Change
Chaudry, Rosemary V.; Mac Crawford, John
2011-01-01
Background: Climate change affects human health, and health departments are urged to act to reduce the severity of these impacts. Yet little is known about the perspective of public health nurses—the largest component of the public health workforce—regarding their roles in addressing health impacts of climate change. Objectives: We determined the knowledge and attitudes of public health nurses concerning climate change and the role of public health nursing in divisions of health departments in addressing health-related impacts of climate change. Differences by demographic subgroups were explored. Methods: An online survey was distributed to nursing directors of U.S. health departments (n = 786) with Internet staff directories. Results: Respondents (n = 176) were primarily female, white public health nursing administrators with ≥ 5 years of experience. Approximately equal percentages of respondents self-identified as having moderate, conservative, and liberal political views. Most agreed that the earth has experienced climate change and that climate change is somewhat controllable. Respondents identified an average of 5 of the 12 listed health-related impacts of climate change, but the modal response was zero impact. Public health nursing was perceived as having responsibility to address health-related impacts of climate change but lacking the ability to address these impacts. Conclusions: Public health nurses view the environment as under threat and see a role for nursing divisions in addressing health effects of climate change. However, they recognize the limited resources and personnel available to devote to this endeavor. PMID:22128069
Fixing Climate: What Past Climate Changes Reveal About the Current Threat-And How to Counter It
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
McKinley, Galen A.
2008-10-01
The Earth's climate is changing due to human activities. Recent polls suggest that the U.S. public generally recognizes this fact, and the efforts that led the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and former U.S. vice president Al Gore to win the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize have played no small role in bringing most of the public to realize what scientists have been discussing for years. Yet aside from distorted Hollywood movie accounts such as The Day After Tomorrow, the public knows little about the potential for abrupt change in the climate system. With support from climate science philanthropist Gary Comer, climate scientist Wally Broecker has teamed with science writer Robert Kunzig in this book to bring abrupt climate change into public view. They do this elegantly and convincingly, making the first 12 chapters quite enjoyable.
Pasanen-Mortensen, Marianne; Elmhagen, Bodil; Lindén, Harto; Bergström, Roger; Wallgren, Märtha; van der Velde, Ype; Cousins, Sara A O
2017-05-01
Apex predators may buffer bottom-up driven ecosystem change, as top-down suppression may dampen herbivore and mesopredator responses to increased resource availability. However, theory suggests that for this buffering capacity to be realized, the equilibrium abundance of apex predators must increase. This raises the question: will apex predators maintain herbivore/mesopredator limitation, if bottom-up change relaxes resource constraints? Here, we explore changes in mesopredator (red fox Vulpes vulpes) abundance over 220 years in response to eradication and recovery of an apex predator (Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx), and changes in land use and climate which are linked to resource availability. A three-step approach was used. First, recent data from Finland and Sweden were modelled to estimate linear effects of lynx density, land use and winter temperature on fox density. Second, lynx density, land use and winter temperature was estimated in a 22 650 km 2 focal area in boreal and boreo-nemoral Sweden in the years 1830, 1920, 2010 and 2050. Third, the models and estimates were used to project historic and future fox densities in the focal area. Projected fox density was lowest in 1830 when lynx density was high, winters cold and the proportion of cropland low. Fox density peaked in 1920 due to lynx eradication, a mesopredator release boosted by favourable bottom-up changes - milder winters and cropland expansion. By 2010, lynx recolonization had reduced fox density, but it remained higher than in 1830, partly due to the bottom-up changes. Comparing 1830 to 2010, the contribution of top-down limitation decreased, while environment enrichment relaxed bottom-up limitation. Future scenarios indicated that by 2050, lynx density would have to increase by 79% to compensate for a projected climate-driven increase in fox density. We highlight that although top-down limitation in theory can buffer bottom-up change, this requires compensatory changes in apex predator abundance
Climate Change and Respiratory Infections.
Mirsaeidi, Mehdi; Motahari, Hooman; Taghizadeh Khamesi, Mojdeh; Sharifi, Arash; Campos, Michael; Schraufnagel, Dean E
2016-08-01
The rate of global warming has accelerated over the past 50 years. Increasing surface temperature is melting glaciers and raising the sea level. More flooding, droughts, hurricanes, and heat waves are being reported. Accelerated changes in climate are already affecting human health, in part by altering the epidemiology of climate-sensitive pathogens. In particular, climate change may alter the incidence and severity of respiratory infections by affecting vectors and host immune responses. Certain respiratory infections, such as avian influenza and coccidioidomycosis, are occurring in locations previously unaffected, apparently because of global warming. Young children and older adults appear to be particularly vulnerable to rapid fluctuations in ambient temperature. For example, an increase in the incidence in childhood pneumonia in Australia has been associated with sharp temperature drops from one day to the next. Extreme weather events, such as heat waves, floods, major storms, drought, and wildfires, are also believed to change the incidence of respiratory infections. An outbreak of aspergillosis among Japanese survivors of the 2011 tsunami is one such well-documented example. Changes in temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and air pollution influence viral activity and transmission. For example, in early 2000, an outbreak of Hantavirus respiratory disease was linked to a local increase in the rodent population, which in turn was attributed to a two- to threefold increase in rainfall before the outbreak. Climate-sensitive respiratory pathogens present challenges to respiratory health that may be far greater in the foreseeable future.
Climate change refugia as a tool for climate adaptation
Climate change refugia, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change so as to increase persistence of valued physical, ecological, and cultural resources, are considered as potential adaptation options in the face of anthropogenic climate change. In a collaboration ...
Climate change. Climate in Medieval time.
Bradley, Raymond S; Hughes, Malcolm K; Diaz, Henry F
2003-10-17
Many papers have referred to a "Medieval Warm Period." But how well defined is climate in this period, and was it as warm as or warmer than it is today? In their Perspective, Bradley et al. review the evidence and conclude that although the High Medieval (1100 to 1200 A.D.) was warmer than subsequent centuries, it was not warmer than the late 20th century. Moreover, the warmest Medieval temperatures were not synchronous around the globe. Large changes in precipitation patterns are a particular characteristic of "High Medieval" time. The underlying mechanisms for such changes must be elucidated further to inform the ongoing debate on natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change.
Understanding recent climate change.
Serreze, Mark C
2010-02-01
The Earth's atmosphere has a natural greenhouse effect, without which the global mean surface temperature would be about 33 degrees C lower and life would not be possible. Human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and other gases in trace amounts. This has enhanced the greenhouse effect, resulting in surface warming. Were it not for the partly offsetting effects of increased aerosol concentrations, the increase in global mean surface temperature over the past 100 years would be larger than observed. Continued surface warming through the 21st century is inevitable and will likely have widespread ecological impacts. The magnitude and rate of warming for the global average will be largely dictated by the strength and direction of climate feedbacks, thermal inertia of the oceans, the rate of greenhouse gas emissions, and aerosol concentrations. Because of regional expressions of climate feedbacks, changes in atmospheric circulation, and a suite of other factors, the magnitude and rate of warming and changes in other key climate elements, such as precipitation, will not be uniform across the planet. For example, due to loss of its floating sea-ice cover, the Arctic will warm the most.
Modelling rainfall erosion resulting from climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kinnell, Peter
2016-04-01
It is well known that soil erosion leads to agricultural productivity decline and contributes to water quality decline. The current widely used models for determining soil erosion for management purposes in agriculture focus on long term (~20 years) average annual soil loss and are not well suited to determining variations that occur over short timespans and as a result of climate change. Soil loss resulting from rainfall erosion is directly dependent on the product of runoff and sediment concentration both of which are likely to be influenced by climate change. This presentation demonstrates the capacity of models like the USLE, USLE-M and WEPP to predict variations in runoff and erosion associated with rainfall events eroding bare fallow plots in the USA with a view to modelling rainfall erosion in areas subject to climate change.
Chen, Xuwu; Li, Xiaodong; Yuan, Xingzhong; Zeng, Guangming; Liang, Jie; Li, Xin; Xu, Wanjun; Luo, Yuan; Chen, Gaojie
2018-07-01
Both climate change and intensive human activities are thought to have contributed to the impairment of atmospheric visibility in Beijing. But the detailed processes involved and relative roles of human activities and climate change have not been quantified. Optical extinction of aerosols, the inverse of meteorological visibility is especially sensitive to fine particles <1.0 μm. These submicron particles are considered more hazardous than larger ones in terms of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Here we used the aerosol optical extinction (inverse of visibility) as the indicator of submicron particles pollution to estimate its inter-annual variability from 1980 to 2015. Our results indicated that optical extinction experienced two different periods: a weakly increasing stage (1980-2005) and a rapidly increasing stage (2005-2015). We attributed the variations of optical extinction to the joint effects of human activities and climate change. Over the past 36 years, human activities played a leading role in the increase of optical extinction, with a positive contribution of 0.077 km -1 /10 y. While under the effects of climate change, optical extinction firstly decreased by 0.035 km -1 /10 y until 2005 and then increased by 0.087 km -1 /10 y. Detailed analysis revealed that the abrupt change (around 2005) of optical extinction resulted from the trend reversals of climate change. We found since 2005 the decreasing trend by 0.58 m·s -1 /10 y in wind speed, the growing trend at 8.69%/10 y in relative humidity and the declining trend by 2.72 hPa/10 y in atmospheric pressure have caused the rapid increase of optical extinction. In brief, the higher load of fine particles <1.0 μm in Beijing in recent decades could be associated with both human activities and climate change. Particularly after 2005, the adverse climate change aggravated the situation of submicron particles pollution. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Turbulence Ahead! How Climate Change Will Affect Air Travel
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Williams, P.
2016-12-01
The climate is changing, not just where we live at ground level, but also where we fly at 35,000 feet. Climate change has important consequences for aviation, because the atmosphere's meteorological characteristics strongly influence flight routes, journey times, and turbulence. This presentation will review the possible impacts of climate change on aviation, which have only recently begun to emerge (as opposed to the impacts of aviation on climate change, which have long been recognised). To investigate the influence of climate change on flight routes and journey times, we feed atmospheric wind fields generated from climate model simulations into a routing algorithm of the type used operationally by flight planners. We focus on transatlantic flights between London and New York, and how they change when the atmospheric CO2 concentration is doubled. We find that a strengthening of the prevailing jet-stream winds causes eastbound flights to significantly shorten and westbound flights to significantly lengthen in all seasons. Eastbound and westbound crossings in winter become approximately twice as likely to take under 5 h 20 min and over 7 h 00 min, respectively. Even assuming no future growth in aviation, the extrapolation of our results to all transatlantic traffic suggests that aircraft will collectively be airborne for an extra 2000 h each year, burning an extra 7.2 million gallons of jet fuel at a cost of US$ 22 million, and emitting an extra 70 million kg CO2. To investigate the influence of climate change on turbulence, we diagnose a basket of 21 clear-air turbulence measures from climate model simulations. We find that turbulence strengthens significantly within the transatlantic flight corridor under climate change. For example, in winter, most turbulence measures show a 10-40% increase in the median strength of turbulence and a 40-170% increase in the frequency of occurrence of moderate-or-greater turbulence. For reference, commercial aircraft currently
Role of Climate Change in Global Predictions of Future Tropospheric Ozone and Aerosols
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Liao, Hong; Chen, Wei-Ting; Seinfeld, John H.
2006-01-01
A unified tropospheric chemistry-aerosol model within the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model II is applied to simulate an equilibrium CO2-forced climate in the year 2100 to examine the effects of climate change on global distributions of tropospheric ozone and sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, primary organic carbon, secondary organic carbon, sea salt, and mineral dust aerosols. The year 2100 CO2 concentration as well as the anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors and aerosols/aerosol precursors are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2. Year 2100 global O3 and aerosol burdens predicted with changes in both climate and emissions are generally 5-20% lower than those simulated with changes in emissions alone; as exceptions, the nitrate burden is 38% lower, and the secondary organic aerosol burden is 17% higher. Although the CO2-driven climate change alone is predicted to reduce the global O3 concentrations over or near populated and biomass burning areas because of slower transport, enhanced biogenic hydrocarbon emissions, decomposition of peroxyacetyl nitrate at higher temperatures, and the increase of O3 production by increased water vapor at high NOx levels. The warmer climate influences aerosol burdens by increasing aerosol wet deposition, altering climate-sensitive emissions, and shifting aerosol thermodynamic equilibrium. Climate change affects the estimates of the year 2100 direct radiative forcing as a result of the climate-induced changes in burdens and different climatological conditions; with full gas-aerosol coupling and accounting for ozone and direct radiative forcings by the O2, sulfate, nitrate, black carbon, and organic carbon are predicted to be +0.93, -0.72, -1.0, +1.26, and -0.56 W m(exp -2), respectively, using present-day climate and year 2100 emissions, while they are predicted to be +0.76, -0.72, 0.74, +0.97, and -0.58 W m(exp -2
Climate change and nutrition: creating a climate for nutrition security.
Tirado, M C; Crahay, P; Mahy, L; Zanev, C; Neira, M; Msangi, S; Brown, R; Scaramella, C; Costa Coitinho, D; Müller, A
2013-12-01
Climate change further exacerbates the enormous existing burden of undernutrition. It affects food and nutrition security and undermines current efforts to reduce hunger and promote nutrition. Undernutrition in turn undermines climate resilience and the coping strategies of vulnerable populations. The objectives of this paper are to identify and undertake a cross-sectoral analysis of the impacts of climate change on nutrition security and the existing mechanisms, strategies, and policies to address them. A cross-sectoral analysis of the impacts of climate change on nutrition security and the mechanisms and policies to address them was guided by an analytical framework focused on the three 'underlying causes' of undernutrition: 1) household food access, 2) maternal and child care and feeding practices, 3) environmental health and health access. The analytical framework includes the interactions of the three underlying causes of undernutrition with climate change,vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation. Within broad efforts on climate change mitigation and adaptation and climate-resilient development, a combination of nutrition-sensitive adaptation and mitigation measures, climate-resilient and nutrition-sensitive agricultural development, social protection, improved maternal and child care and health, nutrition-sensitive risk reduction and management, community development measures, nutrition-smart investments, increased policy coherence, and institutional and cross-sectoral collaboration are proposed as a means to address the impacts of climate change to food and nutrition security. This paper proposes policy directions to address nutrition in the climate change agenda and recommendations for consideration by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Nutrition and health stakeholders need to be engaged in key climate change adaptation and mitigation initiatives, including science-based assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Berg, Alexis
2017-04-01
In recent years, a number of studies have suggested that, as climate warms, the land surface will globally become more arid. Such results usually rely on drought or aridity diagnostics, such as the Palmer Drought Severity Index or the Aridity Index (ratio of precipitation over potential evapotranspiration, PET), applied to climate model projections of surface climate. From a global perspective, the projected widespread drying of the land surface is generally interpreted as the result of the dominant, ubiquitous warming-induced PET increase, which overwhelms the slight overall precipitation increase projected over land. However, several lines of evidence, based on (paleo)observations and climate model projections, raise questions regarding this interpretation of terrestrial climate change. In this talk, I will review elements of the literature supporting these different perspectives, and will present recent results based on CMIP5 climate model projections regarding changes in aridity over land that shed some light on this discussion. Central to the interpretation of projected land aridity changes is the understanding of projected PET trends over land and their link with changes in other variables of the terrestrial water cycle (ET, soil moisture) and surface climate in the context of the coupled land-atmosphere system.
Climate change and occurrence of diarrheal diseases: evolving facts from Nepal.
Bhandari, G P; Gurung, S; Dhimal, M; Bhusal, C L
2012-09-01
Climate change is becoming huge threat to health especially for those from developing countries. Diarrhea as one of the major diseases linked with changing climate. This study has been carried out to assess the relationship between climatic variables, and malaria and to find out the range of non-climatic factors that can confound the relationship of climate change and human health. It is a Retrospective study where data of past ten years relating to climate and disease (diarrhea) variable were analyzed. The study conducted trend analysis based on correlation. The climate related data were obtained from Department of Hydrology and Meteorology. Time Series analysis was also being conducted. The trend of number of yearly cases of diarrhea has been increasing from 1998 to 2001 after which the cases remain constant till 2006.The climate types in Jhapa vary from humid to per-humid based on the moisture index and Mega-thermal based on thermal efficiency. The mean annual temperature is increasing at an average of 0.04 °C/year with maximum temperature increasing faster than the minimum temperature. The annual total rainfall of Jhapa is decreasing at an average rate of -7.1 mm/year. Statistically significant correlation between diarrheal cases occurrence and temperature and rainfall has been observed. However, climate variables were not the significant predictors of diarrheal occurrence. The association among climate variables and diarrheal disease occurrence cannot be neglected which has been showed by this study. Further prospective longitudinal study adjusting influence of non-climatic factors is recommended.
Using Web GIS "Climate" for Adaptation to Climate Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gordova, Yulia; Martynova, Yulia; Shulgina, Tamara
2015-04-01
A work is devoted to the application of an information-computational Web GIS "Climate" developed by joint team of the Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems SB RAS and Tomsk State University to raise awareness about current and future climate change as a basis for further adaptation. Web-GIS "Climate» (http://climate.scert.ru/) based on modern concepts of Web 2.0 provides opportunities to study regional climate change and its consequences by providing access to climate and weather models, a large set of geophysical data and means of processing and visualization. Also, the system is used for the joint development of software applications by distributed research teams, research based on these applications and undergraduate and graduate students training. In addition, the system capabilities allow creating information resources to raise public awareness about climate change, its causes and consequences, which is a necessary step for the subsequent adaptation to these changes. Basic information course on climate change is placed in the public domain and is aimed at local population. Basic concepts and problems of modern climate change and its possible consequences are set out and illustrated in accessible language. Particular attention is paid to regional climate changes. In addition to the information part, the course also includes a selection of links to popular science network resources on current issues in Earth Sciences and a number of practical tasks to consolidate the material. These tasks are performed for a particular territory. Within the tasks users need to analyze the prepared within the "Climate" map layers and answer questions of direct interest to the public: "How did the minimum value of winter temperatures change in your area?", "What are the dynamics of maximum summer temperatures?", etc. Carrying out the analysis of the dynamics of climate change contributes to a better understanding of climate processes and further adaptation
The potential roles of science centers in climate change adaptation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hamilton, P.
2012-12-01
The overwhelming consensus amongst climatologists is that anthropogenic climate change is underway, but leading climate scientists also anticipate that over the next 20 years research may only modestly reduce the uncertainty about where, when and by how much climate will change. Uncertainty presents not only scientific challenges but social, political and economic quandaries as well. Both scientific and educational communities understand that climate change will test the resilience of societies especially because of the uncertainties regarding the timing, nature and severity of climate change. Thus the need is great for civic conversations regarding climate change adaptation. What roles might science centers play in helping their audiences and communities make decisions about climate change adaptation despite less-than-perfect knowledge? And how might informal and formal education work together on this task? This session will begin with a review of some initial efforts by selected science centers and their partners to engage their audiences in and help their communities grapple with climate change adaptation. It then will conclude with an audience discussion about potential future efforts by science centers both individually and in collaboration with formal education institutions to elevate public and policymaker awareness and appreciation of the need for climate change adaptation.
Climates Past, Present, and Yet-to-Come Shape Climate Change Vulnerabilities.
Nadeau, Christopher P; Urban, Mark C; Bridle, Jon R
2017-10-01
Climate change is altering life at multiple scales, from genes to ecosystems. Predicting the vulnerability of populations to climate change is crucial to mitigate negative impacts. We suggest that regional patterns of spatial and temporal climatic variation scaled to the traits of an organism can predict where and why populations are most vulnerable to climate change. Specifically, historical climatic variation affects the sensitivity and response capacity of populations to climate change by shaping traits and the genetic variation in those traits. Present and future climatic variation can affect both climate change exposure and population responses. We provide seven predictions for how climatic variation might affect the vulnerability of populations to climate change and suggest key directions for future research. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems.
Henson, Stephanie A; Beaulieu, Claudie; Ilyina, Tatiana; John, Jasmin G; Long, Matthew; Séférian, Roland; Tjiputra, Jerry; Sarmiento, Jorge L
2017-03-07
Climate change is expected to modify ecological responses in the ocean, with the potential for important effects on the ecosystem services provided to humankind. Here we address the question of how rapidly multiple drivers of marine ecosystem change develop in the future ocean. By analysing an ensemble of models we find that, within the next 15 years, the climate change-driven trends in multiple ecosystem drivers emerge from the background of natural variability in 55% of the ocean and propagate rapidly to encompass 86% of the ocean by 2050 under a 'business-as-usual' scenario. However, we also demonstrate that the exposure of marine ecosystems to climate change-induced stress can be drastically reduced via climate mitigation measures; with mitigation, the proportion of ocean susceptible to multiple drivers within the next 15 years is reduced to 34%. Mitigation slows the pace at which multiple drivers emerge, allowing an additional 20 years for adaptation in marine ecological and socio-economic systems alike.
Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems
Henson, Stephanie A.; Beaulieu, Claudie; Ilyina, Tatiana; John, Jasmin G.; Long, Matthew; Séférian, Roland; Tjiputra, Jerry; Sarmiento, Jorge L.
2017-01-01
Climate change is expected to modify ecological responses in the ocean, with the potential for important effects on the ecosystem services provided to humankind. Here we address the question of how rapidly multiple drivers of marine ecosystem change develop in the future ocean. By analysing an ensemble of models we find that, within the next 15 years, the climate change-driven trends in multiple ecosystem drivers emerge from the background of natural variability in 55% of the ocean and propagate rapidly to encompass 86% of the ocean by 2050 under a ‘business-as-usual' scenario. However, we also demonstrate that the exposure of marine ecosystems to climate change-induced stress can be drastically reduced via climate mitigation measures; with mitigation, the proportion of ocean susceptible to multiple drivers within the next 15 years is reduced to 34%. Mitigation slows the pace at which multiple drivers emerge, allowing an additional 20 years for adaptation in marine ecological and socio-economic systems alike. PMID:28267144
Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Henson, Stephanie A.; Beaulieu, Claudie; Ilyina, Tatiana; John, Jasmin G.; Long, Matthew; Séférian, Roland; Tjiputra, Jerry; Sarmiento, Jorge L.
2017-03-01
Climate change is expected to modify ecological responses in the ocean, with the potential for important effects on the ecosystem services provided to humankind. Here we address the question of how rapidly multiple drivers of marine ecosystem change develop in the future ocean. By analysing an ensemble of models we find that, within the next 15 years, the climate change-driven trends in multiple ecosystem drivers emerge from the background of natural variability in 55% of the ocean and propagate rapidly to encompass 86% of the ocean by 2050 under a `business-as-usual' scenario. However, we also demonstrate that the exposure of marine ecosystems to climate change-induced stress can be drastically reduced via climate mitigation measures; with mitigation, the proportion of ocean susceptible to multiple drivers within the next 15 years is reduced to 34%. Mitigation slows the pace at which multiple drivers emerge, allowing an additional 20 years for adaptation in marine ecological and socio-economic systems alike.
Disturbances catalyze the adaptation of forest ecosystems to changing climate conditions.
Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert
2017-01-01
The rates of anthropogenic climate change substantially exceed those at which forest ecosystems - dominated by immobile, long-lived organisms - are able to adapt. The resulting maladaptation of forests has potentially detrimental effects on ecosystem functioning. Furthermore, as many forest-dwelling species are highly dependent on the prevailing tree species, a delayed response of the latter to a changing climate can contribute to an extinction debt and mask climate-induced biodiversity loss. However, climate change will likely also intensify forest disturbances. Here, we tested the hypothesis that disturbances foster the reorganization of ecosystems and catalyze the adaptation of forest composition to climate change. Our specific objectives were (i) to quantify the rate of autonomous forest adaptation to climate change, (ii) examine the role of disturbance in the adaptation process, and (iii) investigate spatial differences in climate-induced species turnover in an unmanaged mountain forest landscape (Kalkalpen National Park, Austria). Simulations with a process-based forest landscape model were performed for 36 unique combinations of climate and disturbance scenarios over 1000 years. We found that climate change strongly favored European beech and oak species (currently prevailing in mid- to low-elevation areas), with novel species associations emerging on the landscape. Yet, it took between 357 and 706 years before the landscape attained a dynamic equilibrium with the climate system. Disturbances generally catalyzed adaptation and decreased the time needed to attain equilibrium by up to 211 years. However, while increasing disturbance frequency and severity accelerated adaptation, increasing disturbance size had the opposite effect. Spatial analyses suggest that particularly the lowest and highest elevation areas will be hotspots of future species change. We conclude that the growing maladaptation of forests to climate and the long lead times of autonomous
The Green Sahara: Climate Change, Hydrologic History and Human Occupation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Blom, Ronald G.; Farr, Tom G.; Feynmann, Joan; Ruzmaikin, Alexander; Paillou, Philippe
2009-01-01
Archaeology can provide insight into interactions of climate change and human activities in sensitive areas such as the Sahara, to the benefit of both disciplines. Such analyses can help set bounds on climate change projections, perhaps identify elements of tipping points, and provide constraints on models. The opportunity exists to more precisely constrain the relationship of natural solar and climate interactions, improving understanding of present and future anthropogenic forcing. We are beginning to explore the relationship of human occupation of the Sahara and long-term solar irradiance variations synergetic with changes in atmospheric-ocean circulation patterns. Archaeological and climate records for the last 12 K years are gaining adequate precision to make such comparisons possible. We employ a range of climate records taken over the globe (e.g. Antarctica, Greenland, Cariaco Basin, West African Ocean cores, records from caves) to identify the timing and spatial patterns affecting Saharan climate to compare with archaeological records. We see correlation in changing ocean temperature patterns approx. contemporaneous with drying of the Sahara approx. 6K years BP. The role of radar images and other remote sensing in this work includes providing a geographically comprehensive geomorphic overview of this key area. Such coverage is becoming available from the Japanese PALSAR radar system, which can guide field work to collect archaeological and climatic data to further constrain the climate change chronology and link to models. Our initial remote sensing efforts concentrate on the Gilf Kebir area of Egypt.
Impact of regional climate change on human health
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Patz, Jonathan A.; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Holloway, Tracey; Foley, Jonathan A.
2005-11-01
The World Health Organisation estimates that the warming and precipitation trends due to anthropogenic climate change of the past 30years already claim over 150,000 lives annually. Many prevalent human diseases are linked to climate fluctuations, from cardiovascular mortality and respiratory illnesses due to heatwaves, to altered transmission of infectious diseases and malnutrition from crop failures. Uncertainty remains in attributing the expansion or resurgence of diseases to climate change, owing to lack of long-term, high-quality data sets as well as the large influence of socio-economic factors and changes in immunity and drug resistance. Here we review the growing evidence that climate-health relationships pose increasing health risks under future projections of climate change and that the warming trend over recent decades has already contributed to increased morbidity and mortality in many regions of the world. Potentially vulnerable regions include the temperate latitudes, which are projected to warm disproportionately, the regions around the Pacific and Indian oceans that are currently subjected to large rainfall variability due to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation sub-Saharan Africa and sprawling cities where the urban heat island effect could intensify extreme climatic events.
Impact of regional climate change on human health.
Patz, Jonathan A; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Holloway, Tracey; Foley, Jonathan A
2005-11-17
The World Health Organisation estimates that the warming and precipitation trends due to anthropogenic climate change of the past 30 years already claim over 150,000 lives annually. Many prevalent human diseases are linked to climate fluctuations, from cardiovascular mortality and respiratory illnesses due to heatwaves, to altered transmission of infectious diseases and malnutrition from crop failures. Uncertainty remains in attributing the expansion or resurgence of diseases to climate change, owing to lack of long-term, high-quality data sets as well as the large influence of socio-economic factors and changes in immunity and drug resistance. Here we review the growing evidence that climate-health relationships pose increasing health risks under future projections of climate change and that the warming trend over recent decades has already contributed to increased morbidity and mortality in many regions of the world. Potentially vulnerable regions include the temperate latitudes, which are projected to warm disproportionately, the regions around the Pacific and Indian oceans that are currently subjected to large rainfall variability due to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation sub-Saharan Africa and sprawling cities where the urban heat island effect could intensify extreme climatic events.
Empowering Pre-College Students To Engage In Climate Change Solutions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Haine, D. B.
2014-12-01
Developing and implementing solutions to environmental challenges, such as climate change, depend upon the cultivation of STEM knowledge and skills among today's youth. Furthermore, STEM instruction enhances learning by providing tools to investigate and analyze environmental issues, making the issue real and tangible to students. That said, educators engaged in the climate literacy movement are aware that possession of knowledge about Earth's climate and the causes and consequences of climate change is not sufficient to empower individuals to contribute to solutions that promote a sustainable future. By framing the issue of climate change in the context of energy, by utilizing STEM instructional strategies and by showcasing scientists and others working on solutions to address climate change, the Climate Leadership and Energy Awareness Program (Climate LEAP) at the University of North Carolina (UNC) at Chapel Hill is cultivating a network of youth who are not only informed about society's use of energy and the implication for Earth's climate but also empowered to be part of the solution as society shifts to a low carbon economy. During this year-long science enrichment program, 9th-12thgraders learn about our fossil fuel based economy, meet scientists who are working to expand the use of renewable energy sources, and develop communication and leadership skills. Experienced educators with UNC's Institute for the Environment, the Morehead Planetarium and Science Center and the Alliance for Climate Education partner with scientists to implement Climate LEAP. In addition to increasing knowledge of climate science and of the solutions proposed to address climate change, program participants are invited to engage members of their community through implementation of a solutions-oriented community outreach project. Now in its fifth year, 168 students have completed Climate LEAP, with approximately 2/3 completing at least one community outreach project. A survey of program
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zeroual, Ayoub; Assani, Ali A.; Meddi, Mohamed; Alkama, Ramdane
2018-02-01
Significant changes in regional climates have been observed at the end of the twentieth century, taking place at unprecedented rates. These changes, in turn, lead to changes in global climate zones with pace and amplitude varying from one region to another. Algeria, a country characterized by climate conditions ranging from relatively wet to very dry (desert-like), has also experienced changes in its climate regions, notably in the country's wet region, which represents about 7% of its total surface area, but is home to 75% of its population. In this study, the pace of climate zone changes as it is defined by Koppen-Geiger was analyzed for the period from 1951 to 2098 using climate data from observation and regional climate simulations over Algeria. The ability of the CORDEX-Africa regional climate models simulations to reproduce the current observed climate zones and their shifts was first assessed. Future changes over the whole of the twenty-first century were then estimated based on two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. Analysis of the shift rate of climate zones from 1951 to 2005 found a gradual but significant expansion of the surface area of the desert zone at an approximate rate of 650 ± 160 km2/year along with the abrupt shrinking, by approximately 30%, at a rate of 1086 ± 270 km2/year, of the warm temperate climate zone surface area. According to projections for the RCP8.5 scenario, the rate of expansion of desert climate will increase in the future (twenty-first century), particularly during the period from 2045 to 2098.
Prehistoric Packrats Piled Up Clues to Climate Change
Cole, Kenneth L.
2008-01-01
Scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey and Northern Arizona University studying climate change in the Southwestern United States are getting a helping hand?or would that be paw??from prehistoric packrats. By hoarding parts of animals and plants, including seeds and leaves, in garbage piles or ?middens,? these bushy-tailed rodents preserved crucial ecological and environmental information about the past. From these middens, scientists are able to reconstruct plant communities and natural systems from as long ago as 50,000 years. The contents of middens allow scientists to understand how ecosystems responded to rapid, large-scale climate changes of the past. The insights gained from midden research could offer clues to future changes driven by rapid climate shifts.
Transatlantic flight times and climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Williams, Paul D.
2016-02-01
Aircraft do not fly through a vacuum, but through an atmosphere whose meteorological characteristics are changing because of global warming. The impacts of aviation on climate change have long been recognised, but the impacts of climate change on aviation have only recently begun to emerge. These impacts include intensified turbulence and increased take-off weight restrictions. Here we investigate the influence of climate change on flight routes and journey times. We feed synthetic atmospheric wind fields generated from climate model simulations into a routing algorithm of the type used operationally by flight planners. We focus on transatlantic flights between London and New York, and how they change when the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide is doubled. We find that a strengthening of the prevailing jet-stream winds causes eastbound flights to significantly shorten and westbound flights to significantly lengthen in all seasons. Eastbound and westbound crossings in winter become approximately twice as likely to take under 5 h 20 min and over 7 h 00 min, respectively. For reasons that are explained using a conceptual model, the eastbound shortening and westbound lengthening do not cancel out, causing round-trip journey times to increase. Even assuming no future growth in aviation, the extrapolation of our results to all transatlantic traffic suggests that aircraft will collectively be airborne for an extra 2000 h each year, burning an extra 7.2 million gallons of jet fuel at a cost of US 22 million, and emitting an extra 70 million kg of carbon dioxide, which is equivalent to the annual emissions of 7100 average British homes. Our results provide further evidence of the two-way interaction between aviation and climate change.
Advancing Science Literacy Through the Climate Change National Forum
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nielsen-Gammon, J. W.; Quirke, M.; Lefer, B. L.; Hester, T.
2014-12-01
The Climate Change National Forum (http://climatechangenationalforum.org) was established almost a year ago to provide a publicly visible platform for discussion of scientific issues related to climate change and, at a later date, policy options motivated by climate change science. The site is also designed to promote public literacy in the culture and conduct of science by incorporating dozens of active scientists in a broad range of climate science and related fields and encouraging dialogue among those scientists. The forum provides a rare window into scientific debate, allowing non-scientists to see how scientists evaluate the work of others, construct meaning out of various bits of evidence, formulate ideas, challenge their colleagues, and (on occasion) develop a consensus. As such, the site is intended to have educational value well beyond its climate science focus.
Public Perception of Climate Change: The Importance of Knowledge and Cultural Worldviews.
Shi, Jing; Visschers, Vivianne H M; Siegrist, Michael
2015-12-01
The importance of knowledge for lay people's climate change concerns has been questioned in recent years, as it had been suggested that cultural values are stronger predictors of concern about climate change than knowledge. Studies that simultaneously measured knowledge related to climate change and cultural values have, however, been missing. We conducted a mail survey in the German-speaking part of Switzerland (N = 1,065). Results suggested that cultural worldviews and climate-related knowledge were significantly related with people's concern about climate change. Also, cultural worldviews and climate-relevant knowledge appeared important for people's willingness to change behaviors and to accept climate change policies. In addition, different types of knowledge were found to have different impacts on people's concern about climate change, their willingness to change behaviors, and their acceptance of policies about climate change. Specifically, causal knowledge significantly increased concern about climate change and willingness to support climate-friendly policies. We therefore concluded that risk communication should focus on causal knowledge, provided this knowledge does not threaten cultural values. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.
McDermott, Molly E; DeGroote, Lucas W
2017-01-01
Advanced timing of both seasonal migration and reproduction in birds has been strongly associated with a warming climate for many bird species. Phenological responses to climate linking these stages may ultimately impact fitness. We analyzed five decades of banding data from 17 migratory bird species to investigate 1) how spring arrival related to timing of breeding, 2) if the interval between arrival and breeding has changed with increasing spring temperatures, and 3) whether arrival timing or breeding timing best predicted local productivity. Four of 17 species, all mid- to long-distance migrants, hatched young earlier in years when migrants arrived earlier to the breeding grounds (~1:1 day advancement). The interval between arrival on breeding grounds and appearance of juveniles shortened with warmer spring temperatures for 12 species (1-6 days for every 1°C increase) and over time for seven species (1-8 days per decade), suggesting that some migratory passerines adapt to climate change by laying more quickly after arrival or reducing the time from laying to fledging. We found more support for the former, that the rate of reproductive advancement was higher than that for arrival in warm years. Timing of spring arrival and breeding were both poor predictors of avian productivity for most migrants analyzed. Nevertheless, we found evidence that fitness benefits may occur from shifts to earlier spring arrival for the multi-brooded Song Sparrow. Our results uniquely demonstrate that co-occurring avian species are phenologically plastic in their response to climate change on their breeding grounds. If migrants continue to show a weaker response to temperatures during migration than breeding, and the window between arrival and optimal breeding shortens further, biological constraints to plasticity may limit the ability of species to adapt successfully to future warming.
Climate change, conflict and health.
Bowles, Devin C; Butler, Colin D; Morisetti, Neil
2015-10-01
Future climate change is predicted to diminish essential natural resource availability in many regions and perhaps globally. The resulting scarcity of water, food and livelihoods could lead to increasingly desperate populations that challenge governments, enhancing the risk of intra- and interstate conflict. Defence establishments and some political scientists view climate change as a potential threat to peace. While the medical literature increasingly recognises climate change as a fundamental health risk, the dimension of climate change-associated conflict has so far received little attention, despite its profound health implications. Many analysts link climate change with a heightened risk of conflict via causal pathways which involve diminishing or changing resource availability. Plausible consequences include: increased frequency of civil conflict in developing countries; terrorism, asymmetric warfare, state failure; and major regional conflicts. The medical understanding of these threats is inadequate, given the scale of health implications. The medical and public health communities have often been reluctant to interpret conflict as a health issue. However, at times, medical workers have proven powerful and effective peace advocates, most notably with regard to nuclear disarmament. The public is more motivated to mitigate climate change when it is framed as a health issue. Improved medical understanding of the association between climate change and conflict could strengthen mitigation efforts and increase cooperation to cope with the climate change that is now inevitable. © The Royal Society of Medicine.
Abrupt climate change: can society cope?
Hulme, Mike
2003-09-15
Consideration of abrupt climate change has generally been incorporated neither in analyses of climate-change impacts nor in the design of climate adaptation strategies. Yet the possibility of abrupt climate change triggered by human perturbation of the climate system is used to support the position of both those who urge stronger and earlier mitigative action than is currently being contemplated and those who argue that the unknowns in the Earth system are too large to justify such early action. This paper explores the question of abrupt climate change in terms of its potential implications for society, focusing on the UK and northwest Europe in particular. The nature of abrupt climate change and the different ways in which it has been defined and perceived are examined. Using the example of the collapse of the thermohaline circulation (THC), the suggested implications for society of abrupt climate change are reviewed; previous work has been largely speculative and has generally considered the implications only from economic and ecological perspectives. Some observations about the implications from a more social and behavioural science perspective are made. If abrupt climate change simply implies changes in the occurrence or intensity of extreme weather events, or an accelerated unidirectional change in climate, the design of adaptation to climate change can proceed within the existing paradigm, with appropriate adjustments. Limits to adaptation in some sectors or regions may be reached, and the costs of appropriate adaptive behaviour may be large, but strategy can develop on the basis of a predicted long-term unidirectional change in climate. It would be more challenging, however, if abrupt climate change implied a directional change in climate, as, for example, may well occur in northwest Europe following a collapse of the THC. There are two fundamental problems for society associated with such an outcome: first, the future changes in climate currently being
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Rind, D.; Perlwitz, J.; Lonergan, P.
2005-01-01
We utilize the GISS Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model and 8 different climate change experiments, many of them focused on stratospheric climate forcings, to assess the relative influence of tropospheric and stratospheric climate change on the extratropical circulation indices (Arctic Oscillation, AO; North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO). The experiments are run in two different ways: with variable sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to allow for a full tropospheric climate response, and with specified SSTs to minimize the tropospheric change. The results show that tropospheric warming (cooling) experiments and stratospheric cooling (warming) experiments produce more positive (negative) AO/NAO indices. For the typical magnitudes of tropospheric and stratospheric climate changes, the tropospheric response dominates; results are strongest when the tropospheric and stratospheric influences are producing similar phase changes. Both regions produce their effect primarily by altering wave propagation and angular momentum transports, but planetary wave energy changes accompanying tropospheric climate change are also important. Stratospheric forcing has a larger impact on the NAO than on the AO, and the angular momentum transport changes associated with it peak in the upper troposphere, affecting all wavenumbers. Tropospheric climate changes influence both the A0 and NAO with effects that extend throughout the troposphere. For both forcings there is often vertical consistency in the sign of the momentum transport changes, obscuring the difference between direct and indirect mechanisms for influencing the surface circulation.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Flohr, Pascal; Fleitmann, Dominik; Bosomworth, Matt; Cheng, Hai; Sadekov, Aleksey; Matthews, Roger; Matthews, Wendy; Black, Stuart; Edwards, Lawrence
2016-04-01
Climatic and environmental changes are often cited as a major factor for past social, economic, and political changes. This is especially relevant in the semi-arid to arid Middle East, where, however, only few precisely dated, high-resolution climate records are available. Here we present new results from an up to annually resolved stalagmite from Gejkar Cave in the Kurdish Regional Government of Iraq region. Based on Uranium-series dating and annual layer counts, the record dates back ~2700 years, and its annual layer thickness and carbon and oxygen isotope profile appear indicative of precipitation and effective moisture. We also assess if observed decadal to multi-decadal shifts in precipitation are synchronous with socio-economic changes as observed in the archaeological and historical record in the wider Middle East over the last 2000 years, such as the largely prosperous Roman and Byzantine periods, the Seljuq invasion, and the decline of the Ottoman Empire.
Effects of climate change on landslide hazard in Europe (Invited)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nadim, F.; Solheim, A.
2009-12-01
Landslides represent a major threat to human life, property and constructed facilities, infrastructure and natural environment in most mountainous and hilly regions of the world. As a consequence of climatic changes and potential global warming, an increase of landslide activity is expected in some parts of the world in the future. This will be due to increased extreme rainfall events, changes of hydrological cycles, meteorological events followed by sea storms causing coastal erosion and melting of snow and of frozen soils in the high mountains. During the past century, Europe experienced many fatalities and significant economic losses due to landslides. Since in many parts of Europe landslides are the most serious natural hazard, several recent European research projects are looking into the effects of climate change on the risk associated with landslides. Examples are the recently initiated SafeLand project, which looks into this problem across the continent, and GeoExtreme, which focused on Norway. The ongoing project SafeLand (www.safeland-fp7.eu) is a large, integrating project financed by the European Commission. It involves close to 30 organizations from 13 countries in Europe, and it looks into the effects of global change (mainly changes in demography and climate change) on the pattern of landslide risk in Europe. The SafeLand objectives are to (1) provide policy-makers, public administrators, researchers, scientists, educators and other stakeholders with improved harmonized framework and methodology for the assessment and quantification of landslide risk in Europe's regions; (2) evaluate the changes in risk pattern caused by climate change, human activity and policy changes; and (3) provide guidelines for choosing the most appropriate risk management strategies, including risk mitigation and prevention measures. To assess the changes in the landslide risk pattern in Norway over the next 50 years, the four-year integrated research project GeoExtreme (www
Climate change and trace gases.
Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Kharecha, Pushker; Russell, Gary; Lea, David W; Siddall, Mark
2007-07-15
Palaeoclimate data show that the Earth's climate is remarkably sensitive to global forcings. Positive feedbacks predominate. This allows the entire planet to be whipsawed between climate states. One feedback, the 'albedo flip' property of ice/water, provides a powerful trigger mechanism. A climate forcing that 'flips' the albedo of a sufficient portion of an ice sheet can spark a cataclysm. Inertia of ice sheet and ocean provides only moderate delay to ice sheet disintegration and a burst of added global warming. Recent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions place the Earth perilously close to dramatic climate change that could run out of our control, with great dangers for humans and other creatures. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the largest human-made climate forcing, but other trace constituents are also important. Only intense simultaneous efforts to slow CO2 emissions and reduce non-CO2 forcings can keep climate within or near the range of the past million years. The most important of the non-CO2 forcings is methane (CH4), as it causes the second largest human-made GHG climate forcing and is the principal cause of increased tropospheric ozone (O3), which is the third largest GHG forcing. Nitrous oxide (N2O) should also be a focus of climate mitigation efforts. Black carbon ('black soot') has a high global warming potential (approx. 2000, 500 and 200 for 20, 100 and 500 years, respectively) and deserves greater attention. Some forcings are especially effective at high latitudes, so concerted efforts to reduce their emissions could preserve Arctic ice, while also having major benefits for human health, agricultural productivity and the global environment.
Presents information, charts and graphs showing measured climate changes across 40 indicators related to greenhouse gases, weather and climate, oceans, snow and ice, heath and society, and ecosystems.
Climate change, keystone predation, and biodiversity loss.
Harley, Christopher D G
2011-11-25
Climate change can affect organisms both directly via physiological stress and indirectly via changing relationships among species. However, we do not fully understand how changing interspecific relationships contribute to community- and ecosystem-level responses to environmental forcing. I used experiments and spatial and temporal comparisons to demonstrate that warming substantially reduces predator-free space on rocky shores. The vertical extent of mussel beds decreased by 51% in 52 years, and reproductive populations of mussels disappeared at several sites. Prey species were able to occupy a hot, extralimital site if predation pressure was experimentally reduced, and local species richness more than doubled as a result. These results suggest that anthropogenic climate change can alter interspecific interactions and produce unexpected changes in species distributions, community structure, and diversity.
Climate change: Cropping system changes and adaptations
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
Climate change impacts the life of every person; however, there is little comprehensive understanding of the direct and indirect effects of climate change on agriculture. Since our food, feed, fiber, and fruit is derived from agricultural systems, understanding the effects of changing temperature, p...
Cool Science: K-12 Climate Change Art Displayed on Buses
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chen, R. F.; Lustick, D. S.; Lohmeier, J.; Thompson, S. R.
2015-12-01
Cool science is an art contest where K12 students create placards (7" x 22") to educate the public about climate change. Students are prompted to create their artwork in response to questions such as: What is the evidence for climate change? How does climate change impact your local community? What can you do to reduce the impacts of climate change? In each of three years, 500-600 student entrees have been submitted from more than 12 school districts across Massachusetts. A panel of judges including scientists, artists, rapid transit representatives, and educators chooses elementary, middle, and high school winners. Winners (6), runners-up (6), and honorable mentions (12) and their families and teachers are invited to an annual Cool Science Award Ceremony to be recognized and view winning artwork. All winning artwork is posted on the Cool Science website. The winning artwork (2 per grade band) is converted into placards (11" x 28") and posters (2.5' x 12') that are placed on the inside (placards) and outside (posters) of buses. Posters are displayed for one month. So far, Cool Science was implemented in Lowell, MA where over 5000 public viewers see the posters daily on the sides of Lowell Rapid Transit Authority (LRTA) buses, making approximately 1,000,000 impressions per year. Cool Science acts to increase climate literacy in children as well as the public, and as such promotes intergenerational learning. Using art in conjunction with science learning about climate change appears to be effective at engaging not just traditionally high achieving science students, but also those interested in the creative arts. Hearing winners' stories about how they created their artwork and what this contest meant to them supports the idea that Cool Science attracts a wide diversity of students. Parents discuss climate change with their children. Multiple press releases announcing the winners further promotes the awareness of climate change throughout school districts and their
Climate Change and Tropical Total Lightning
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Albrecht, R.; Petersen, W.; Buechler, D.; Goodman, S.; Blakeslee, R.; Christian, H.
2009-01-01
While global warming is regarded as a fact by many in the scientific community, its future impact remains a challenge to be determined and measured. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report (IPCC, 2007) shows inconclusive answers on global rainfall trends and general agreement on a future drier climate with increased global warming. The relationship between temperature, humidity and convection is not linear and is strongly dependent on regional scale features, such as topography and land cover. Furthermore, the relationship between convective lightning production (thunderstorms) and temperature is even more complicated, being subjected to the cloud dynamics and microphysics. Total lightning (intracloud and cloud-to-ground) monitoring is a relatively new field of observation. Global and tropical total lightning began to be more extensively measured by satellites in the mid 90s. In this scope, the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) onboard of the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) has been operational for over 11 years. Here we address total lightning trends observed by LIS from 1998 to 2008 in different temporal (annual and seasonal) and spatial (large and regional) scales. The observed 11-year trends are then associate to different predicted/hypothesized climate change scenarios.
Landscape fragmentation affects responses of avian communities to climate change.
Jarzyna, Marta A; Porter, William F; Maurer, Brian A; Zuckerberg, Benjamin; Finley, Andrew O
2015-08-01
Forecasting the consequences of climate change is contingent upon our understanding of the relationship between biodiversity patterns and climatic variability. While the impacts of climate change on individual species have been well-documented, there is a paucity of studies on climate-mediated changes in community dynamics. Our objectives were to investigate the relationship between temporal turnover in avian biodiversity and changes in climatic conditions and to assess the role of landscape fragmentation in affecting this relationship. We hypothesized that community turnover would be highest in regions experiencing the most pronounced changes in climate and that these patterns would be reduced in human-dominated landscapes. To test this hypothesis, we quantified temporal turnover in avian communities over a 20-year period using data from the New York State Breeding Atlases collected during 1980-1985 and 2000-2005. We applied Bayesian spatially varying intercept models to evaluate the relationship between temporal turnover and temporal trends in climatic conditions and landscape fragmentation. We found that models including interaction terms between climate change and landscape fragmentation were superior to models without the interaction terms, suggesting that the relationship between avian community turnover and changes in climatic conditions was affected by the level of landscape fragmentation. Specifically, we found weaker associations between temporal turnover and climatic change in regions with prevalent habitat fragmentation. We suggest that avian communities in fragmented landscapes are more robust to climate change than communities found in contiguous habitats because they are comprised of species with wider thermal niches and thus are less susceptible to shifts in climatic variability. We conclude that highly fragmented regions are likely to undergo less pronounced changes in composition and structure of faunal communities as a result of climate change
Climate change and One Health.
Zinsstag, Jakob; Crump, Lisa; Schelling, Esther; Hattendorf, Jan; Maidane, Yahya Osman; Ali, Kadra Osman; Muhummed, Abdifatah; Umer, Abdurezak Adem; Aliyi, Ferzua; Nooh, Faisal; Abdikadir, Mohammed Ibrahim; Ali, Seid Mohammed; Hartinger, Stella; Mäusezahl, Daniel; de White, Monica Berger Gonzalez; Cordon-Rosales, Celia; Castillo, Danilo Alvarez; McCracken, John; Abakar, Fayiz; Cercamondi, Colin; Emmenegger, Sandro; Maier, Edith; Karanja, Simon; Bolon, Isabelle; de Castañeda, Rafael Ruiz; Bonfoh, Bassirou; Tschopp, Rea; Probst-Hensch, Nicole; Cissé, Guéladio
2018-06-01
The journal The Lancet recently published a countdown on health and climate change. Attention was focused solely on humans. However, animals, including wildlife, livestock and pets, may also be impacted by climate change. Complementary to the high relevance of awareness rising for protecting humans against climate change, here we present a One Health approach, which aims at the simultaneous protection of humans, animals and the environment from climate change impacts (climate change adaptation). We postulate that integrated approaches save human and animal lives and reduce costs when compared to public and animal health sectors working separately. A One Health approach to climate change adaptation may significantly contribute to food security with emphasis on animal source foods, extensive livestock systems, particularly ruminant livestock, environmental sanitation, and steps towards regional and global integrated syndromic surveillance and response systems. The cost of outbreaks of emerging vector-borne zoonotic pathogens may be much lower if they are detected early in the vector or in livestock rather than later in humans. Therefore, integrated community-based surveillance of zoonoses is a promising avenue to reduce health effects of climate change.
Crump, Lisa; Schelling, Esther; Hattendorf, Jan; Maidane, Yahya Osman; Ali, Kadra Osman; Muhummed, Abdifatah; Umer, Abdurezak Adem; Aliyi, Ferzua; Nooh, Faisal; Abdikadir, Mohammed Ibrahim; Ali, Seid Mohammed; Hartinger, Stella; Mäusezahl, Daniel; de White, Monica Berger Gonzalez; Cordon-Rosales, Celia; Castillo, Danilo Alvarez; McCracken, John; Abakar, Fayiz; Cercamondi, Colin; Emmenegger, Sandro; Maier, Edith; Karanja, Simon; Bolon, Isabelle; de Castañeda, Rafael Ruiz; Bonfoh, Bassirou; Tschopp, Rea; Probst-Hensch, Nicole; Cissé, Guéladio
2018-01-01
Abstract The journal The Lancet recently published a countdown on health and climate change. Attention was focused solely on humans. However, animals, including wildlife, livestock and pets, may also be impacted by climate change. Complementary to the high relevance of awareness rising for protecting humans against climate change, here we present a One Health approach, which aims at the simultaneous protection of humans, animals and the environment from climate change impacts (climate change adaptation). We postulate that integrated approaches save human and animal lives and reduce costs when compared to public and animal health sectors working separately. A One Health approach to climate change adaptation may significantly contribute to food security with emphasis on animal source foods, extensive livestock systems, particularly ruminant livestock, environmental sanitation, and steps towards regional and global integrated syndromic surveillance and response systems. The cost of outbreaks of emerging vector-borne zoonotic pathogens may be much lower if they are detected early in the vector or in livestock rather than later in humans. Therefore, integrated community-based surveillance of zoonoses is a promising avenue to reduce health effects of climate change. PMID:29790983
Forcings and feedbacks by land ecosystem changes on climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Betts, R. A.
2006-12-01
Vegetation change is involved in climate change through both forcing and feedback processes. Emissions of CO{2} from past net deforestation are estimated to have contributed approximately 0.22 0.51 Wm - 2 to the overall 1.46 Wm - 2 radiative forcing by anthropogenic increases in CO{2} up to the year 2000. Deforestation-induced increases in global mean surface albedo are estimated to exert a radiative forcing of 0 to -0.2 Wm - 2, and dust emissions from land use may exert a radiative forcing of between approximately +0.1 and -0.2 Wm - 2. Changes in the fluxes of latent and sensible heat due to tropical deforestation are simulated to have exerted other local warming effects which cannot be quantified in terms of a Wm - 2 radiative forcing, with the potential for remote effects through changes in atmospheric circulation. With tropical deforestation continuing rapidly, radiative forcing by surface albedo change may become less useful as a measure of the forcing of climate change by changes in the physical properties of the land surface. Although net global deforestation is continuing, future scenarios used for climate change prediction suggest that fossil fuel emissions of CO{2} may continue to increase at a greater rate than land use emissions and therefore continue to increase in dominance as the main radiative forcing. The CO{2} rise may be accelerated by up to 66% by feedbacks arising from global soil carbon loss and forest dieback in Amazonia as a consequence of climate change, and Amazon forest dieback may also exert feedbacks through changes in the local water cycle and increases in dust emissions.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liu, Jianyu; Zhang, Qiang; Zhang, Yongqiang; Chen, Xi; Li, Jianfeng; Aryal, Santosh K.
2017-10-01
Climatic elasticity has been widely applied to assess streamflow responses to climate changes. To fully assess impacts of climate under global warming on streamflow and reduce the error and uncertainty from various control variables, we develop a four-parameter (precipitation, catchment characteristics n, and maximum and minimum temperatures) climatic elasticity method named PnT, based on the widely used Budyko framework and simplified Makkink equation. We use this method to carry out the first comprehensive evaluation of the streamflow response to potential climate change for 372 widely spread catchments in China. The PnT climatic elasticity was first evaluated for a period 1980-2000, and then used to evaluate streamflow change response to climate change based on 12 global climate models under Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. The results show that (1) the PnT climatic elasticity method is reliable; (2) projected increasing streamflow takes place in more than 60% of the selected catchments, with mean increments of 9% and 15.4% under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 respectively; and (3) uncertainties in the projected streamflow are considerable in several regions, such as the Pearl River and Yellow River, with more than 40% of the selected catchments showing inconsistent change directions. Our results can help Chinese policy makers to manage and plan water resources more effectively, and the PnT climatic elasticity should be applied to other parts of the world.
Weather anomalies affect Climate Change microblogging intensity
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Molodtsova, T.; Kirilenko, A.
2012-12-01
daily temperature from its 30-year mean exceeding one standard deviation of the mean daily temperatures collected for the same date throughout 1971-2000. In the same way, the days with "significant change" in the number of tweets on climate change were defined. Pearson correlation between the anomalies in blogging intensity and temperature index was 0.28 (significance 0.001, N=174); Spearman's ρ = 0.27 (significance 0.001, N=174). At the same time, the number of tweets originating from the entire USA, while following closely the New York frequency numbers (Pearson correlation 0.69), did not demonstrate a significant correlation with the New York area weather: Pearson correlation was 0.14 (significance 0.075); Spearman's ρ = 0.14 (significance 0.077).The preliminary analysis has confirmed that the weather anomalies experienced at a certain location is perceived by general public as proxy of climate change and is immediately reflected in the intensity of microblogging discussing climate change.
Climate change: The 2015 Paris Agreement thresholds and Mediterranean basin ecosystems.
Guiot, Joel; Cramer, Wolfgang
2016-10-28
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Paris Agreement of December 2015 aims to maintain the global average warming well below 2°C above the preindustrial level. In the Mediterranean basin, recent pollen-based reconstructions of climate and ecosystem variability over the past 10,000 years provide insights regarding the implications of warming thresholds for biodiversity and land-use potential. We compare scenarios of climate-driven future change in land ecosystems with reconstructed ecosystem dynamics during the past 10,000 years. Only a 1.5°C warming scenario permits ecosystems to remain within the Holocene variability. At or above 2°C of warming, climatic change will generate Mediterranean land ecosystem changes that are unmatched in the Holocene, a period characterized by recurring precipitation deficits rather than temperature anomalies. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.
The climate of the Taimyr Peninsula in the Holocene and a Forecast of Climatic Changes in the Arctic
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ukraintseva, V.
2009-04-01
Based on the data of the spore-pollen and radiocarbon methods during our research of a peat bog in the south-eastern part of the Taimyr Peninsula we discovered for the first time the natural dynamics of the climate for this region during the period of the last 10 500 years [2, 3] and made a long-term forecast of climatic changes both for the Taimyr Peninsula and for other Arctic regions. By the quantitative characteristics of the climate and their dynamics in time, reconstructed for the basin of the Fomich River (71 ° 42 ' North, 108 ° 03 ' East) and for the Taimyr Peninsula on the whole, we have established two climatic types: tundra (10500 ±140 years BP- 7040 ± 60 years BP) and forest (5720± 60 years BP - 500 ± 60 years BP to the present time). In the first half of the Holocene the climate there was rather stable; only 7530 years ago a sharp cooling took place; the second half of the Holocene, beginning with 5720 years ago, is characterized by alternating fluctuations in the climate [3]. Taking only the palaeoclimatic reconstructions as a basis, we can talk about a trend of climatic changes in the future. However comparing the Sun activity` forecast, expressed in Wolf units (Max W), made by V.N. Kupetsky [1], with the climatic characteristics, which we have reconstructed, we could then make a more precise forecast of climatic changes for the Taimyr Peninsula and the Russian part of the Arctic (Table). The above forecast lets us make the following basically important conclusions: (1) the climate`s warming, which is currently being observed on the Earth (the 23rd cycle of the Sun`s activity) will last till 2011; (2) during the following two cycles (24th and 25th) the Sun`s activity will decrease to 100-110 Wolf units, which will cause a cooling of the climate on the Earth; (3) in the following, the 26th cycle, the Sun`s activity will increase up to 130 Wolf units, which will cause a warming of the climate; (4) in the 27th cycle (2037-2048) the Sun`s activity
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Adams, P. E.; Heinrichs, J. F.
2010-12-01
One of the greatest challenges facing the world is climate change. Coupled with this challenge is an under-informed population that has not received a rigorous education about climate change other than what is available through the media. Fort Hays State University is in a second year of piloting a course on climate change targeted to students early in their academic careers. The course is modeled after our past work (NSF DUE-0088818) of integrating content knowledge instruction and student-driven research where there was a positive correlation between student research engagement and student knowledge gains. The second pilot offering utilizes a mix of inquiry-based instruction, problem-based learning, and student-driven research to educate and engage the students in understanding climate change. The course was collaboratively developed by a geoscientist and science educator both of whom are active in citizen science programs. The course model is unique in that 50% of the course is dedicated to developing core knowledge and technical skills (e.g. global climate change, critical analysis, writing, data acquisition, data representation, and research design), and 50% to conducting a research project using available data sets from federal agencies and research groups. A key element of the course is a focus on data sets to make climate change relevant to the students. The research serves as a means of civic engagement by the students as they are tasked to understand their role in communicating their research findings to the community and coping with the local and regional changes they find through their research. The impacts of course changes from the first offering to the second offering of the course will be reported, as well as the structure of the course.
Changes in Benefits of Flood Protection Standard under Climate Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lim, W. H.; Koirala, S.; Yamazaki, D.; Hirabayashi, Y.; Kanae, S.
2014-12-01
Understanding potential risk of river flooding under future climate scenarios might be helpful for developing risk management strategies (including mitigation, adaptation). Such analyses are typically performed at the macro scales (e.g., regional, global) where the climate model output could support (e.g., Hirabayashi et al., 2013, Arnell and Gosling, 2014). To understand the potential benefits of infrastructure upgrading as part of climate adaptation strategies, it is also informative to understand the potential impact of different flood protection standards (in terms of return periods) on global river flooding under climate change. In this study, we use a baseline period (forced by observed hydroclimate conditions) and CMIP5 model output (historic and future periods) to drive a global river routing model called CaMa-Flood (Yamazaki et al., 2011) and simulate the river water depth at a spatial resolution of 15 min x 15 min. From the simulated results of baseline period, we use the annual maxima river water depth to fit the Gumbel distribution and prepare the return period-flood risk relationship (involving population and GDP). From the simulated results of CMIP5 model, we also used the annual maxima river water depth to obtain the Gumbel distribution and then estimate the exceedance probability (historic and future periods). We apply the return period-flood risk relationship (above) to the exceedance probability and evaluate the potential risk of river flooding and changes in the benefits of flood protection standard (e.g., 100-year flood of the baseline period) from the past into the future (represented by the representative concentration pathways). In this presentation, we show our preliminary results. References: Arnell, N.W, Gosling, S., N., 2014. The impact of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale. Climatic Change 122: 127-140, doi: 10.1007/s10584-014-1084-5. Hirabayashi et al., 2013. Global flood risk under climate change. Nature Climate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Goto-Maeda, Y.; Emori, S.; Takahashi, K.; Aoyagi-Usui, M.; Fukushi, K.; Tanaka, Y.; Fukuda, H.; Matsumoto, Y.; Asakura, A.; Hiramatsu, A.; Sumi, A.
2011-12-01
For researchers, being reported by mass media is an effective way to share their studies with others, although some have concerns that scientific results are often exaggerated by highlighting sensational parts and ignoring essential results by the media. Obviously, journalists have their own criteria of effective science reporting for their newspapers or magazines which do not necessarily conform to how researchers report their results. Climate Change Media Forum was started in 2009 by researchers specializing in climate science and communication to fill such gaps and enhance communication between climate scientists and journalists as part of a climate change research project funded by the Ministry of Environment of Japan. Since its start, forum events have been held once a year to exchange ideas on reporting of climate change science through mass media. At the first event in March, 2009, we started with learning about what actually the journalists and researchers think about media reports on climate change sciences. Using onsite questionnaire surveys, the participants (39 journalists and 31 researchers) discussed their problems on reporting climate change and what they would like to tell to the public. Some of the survey results suggested that researchers are willing to emphasize more about the conditions and assumptions of studies, while journalists would like to know more about current and short-term impacts. From the second year, two journalists joined the committee to make the events more meaningful for journalists. For the event in March, 2010, three months after COP15 in Copenhagen, the 2 degrees temperature target, which was the only written number on the Copenhagen Accord, was selected as a timely topic. Although researchers understand that a specific target is necessary for setting a concrete pathway, many of them also feel uncomfortable about selecting one single value from the temperature range with uncertainty. After two lectures on the history of the
Advancing Australia's role in climate change and health research
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Green, Donna; Pitman, Andrew; Barnett, Adrian; Kaldor, John; Doherty, Peter; Stanley, Fiona
2017-02-01
A major Australian government report published 25 years ago called for urgent investment in research on the impacts of climate change on human health. Since that report's release, less than 0.1% of Australian health funding has been allocated to this area. As the world continues on a high emissions pathway, the health impacts from climate change are increasing in size and complexity. While Australia has established leadership roles in climate science and health research, it must now link these two strengths. Doing so would boost regional understanding of how climate change will affect health and what adaptation strategies are needed to reduce these threats. Such research would support better health planning and decision-making in partnership with other regional countries.
Euskirchen, Eugénie S.; McGuire, Anthony David; Chapin, F. Stuart; Yi, S.; Thompson, Catharine Copass
2009-01-01
Assessing potential future changes in arctic and boreal plant species productivity, ecosystem composition, and canopy complexity is essential for understanding environmental responses under expected altered climate forcing. We examined potential changes in the dominant plant functional types (PFTs) of the sedge tundra, shrub tundra, and boreal forest ecosystems in ecotonal northern Alaska, USA, for the years 2003–2100. We compared energy feedbacks associated with increases in biomass to energy feedbacks associated with changes in the duration of the snow-free season. We based our simulations on nine input climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and a new version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) that incorporates biogeochemistry, vegetation dynamics for multiple PFTs (e.g., trees, shrubs, grasses, sedges, mosses), multiple vegetation pools, and soil thermal regimes. We found mean increases in net primary productivity (NPP) in all PFTs. Most notably, birch (Betula spp.) in the shrub tundra showed increases that were at least three times larger than any other PFT. Increases in NPP were positively related to increases in growing-season length in the sedge tundra, but PFTs in boreal forest and shrub tundra showed a significant response to changes in light availability as well as growing-season length. Significant NPP responses to changes in vegetation uptake of nitrogen by PFT indicated that some PFTs were better competitors for nitrogen than other PFTs. While NPP increased, heterotrophic respiration (RH) also increased, resulting in decreases or no change in net ecosystem carbon uptake. Greater aboveground biomass from increased NPP produced a decrease in summer albedo, greater regional heat absorption (0.34 ± 0.23 W·m−2·10 yr−1 [mean ± SD]), and a positive feedback to climate warming. However, the decrease in albedo due to a shorter snow season (−5.1 ± 1.6 d/10 yr) resulted in much greater regional heat
Macpherson, Cheryl Cox
2014-04-01
One manifestation of climate change is the increasingly severe extreme weather that causes injury, illness and death through heat stress, air pollution, infectious disease and other means. Leading health organisations around the world are responding to the related water and food shortages and volatility of energy and agriculture prices that threaten health and health economics. Environmental and climate ethics highlight the associated challenges to human rights and distributive justice but rarely address health or encompass bioethical methods or analyses. Public health ethics and its broader umbrella, bioethics, remain relatively silent on climate change. Meanwhile global population growth creates more people who aspire to Western lifestyles and unrestrained socioeconomic growth. Fulfilling these aspirations generates more emissions; worsens climate change; and undermines virtues and values that engender appreciation of, and protections for, natural resources. Greater understanding of how virtues and values are evolving in different contexts, and the associated consequences, might nudge the individual and collective priorities that inform public policy toward embracing stewardship and responsibility for environmental resources necessary to health. Instead of neglecting climate change and related policy, public health ethics and bioethics should explore these issues; bring transparency to the tradeoffs that permit emissions to continue at current rates; and offer deeper understanding about what is at stake and what it means to live a good life in today's world.
Quintero, Ignacio; Wiens, John J
2013-08-01
A key question in predicting responses to anthropogenic climate change is: how quickly can species adapt to different climatic conditions? Here, we take a phylogenetic approach to this question. We use 17 time-calibrated phylogenies representing the major tetrapod clades (amphibians, birds, crocodilians, mammals, squamates, turtles) and climatic data from distributions of > 500 extant species. We estimate rates of change based on differences in climatic variables between sister species and estimated times of their splitting. We compare these rates to predicted rates of climate change from 2000 to 2100. Our results are striking: matching projected changes for 2100 would require rates of niche evolution that are > 10,000 times faster than rates typically observed among species, for most variables and clades. Despite many caveats, our results suggest that adaptation to projected changes in the next 100 years would require rates that are largely unprecedented based on observed rates among vertebrate species. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.
Has solar variability caused climate change that affected human culture?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Feynman, Joan
If solar variability affects human culture it most likely does so by changing the climate in which the culture operates. Variations in the solar radiative input to the Earth's atmosphere have often been suggested as a cause of such climate change on time scales from decades to tens of millennia. In the last 20 years there has been enormous progress in our knowledge of the many fields of research that impinge on this problem; the history of the solar output, the effect of solar variability on the Earth's mean climate and its regional patterns, the history of the Earth's climate and the history of mankind and human culture. This new knowledge encourages revisiting the question asked in the title of this talk. Several important historical events have been reliably related to climate change including the Little Ice Age in northern Europe and the collapse of the Classical Mayan civilization in the 9th century AD. In the first section of this paper we discus these historical events and review the evidence that they were caused by changes in the solar output. Perhaps the most important event in the history of mankind was the development of agricultural societies. This began to occur almost 12,000 years ago when the climate changed from the Pleistocene to the modern climate of the Holocene. In the second section of the paper we will discuss the suggestion ( Feynman and Ruzmaikin, 2007) that climate variability was the reason agriculture developed when it did and not before.
Assessment of the Effect of Climate Change on Grain Yields in China
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chou, J.
2006-12-01
The paper elaborates the social background and research background; makes clear what the key scientific issues need to be resolved and where the difficulties are. In the research area of parasailing the grain yield change caused by climate change, massive works have been done both in the domestic and in the foreign. It is our upcoming work to evaluate how our countrywide climate change information provided by this pattern influence our economic and social development; and how to make related policies and countermeasures. the main idea in this paper is that the grain yield change is by no means the linear composition of social economy function effect and the climatic change function effect. This paper identifies the economic evaluation object, proposes one new concept - climate change output. The grain yields change affected by the social factors and the climatic change working together. Climate change influences the grain yields by the non ¨C linear function from both climate change and social factor changes, not only by climate change itself. Therefore, in my paper, the appraisal object is defined as: The social factors change based on actual social changing situations; under the two kinds of climate change situation, the invariable climate change situation and variable climate change situation; the difference of grain yield outputs is called " climate change output ", In order to solve this problem, we propose a method to analyze and imitate on the historical materials. Giving the condition that the climate is invariable, the social economic factor changes cause the grain yield change. However, this grain yield change is a tentative quantity index, not an actual quantity number. So we use the existing historical materials to exam the climate change output, based on the characteristic that social factor changes greater in year than in age, but the climate factor changes greater in age than in year. The paper proposes and establishes one economy - climate model (C
Climate Change: Past, Present, and Future
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chapman, David S.; Davis, Michael G.
2010-09-01
Questions about global warming concern climate scientists and the general public alike. Specifically, what are the reliable surface temperature reconstructions over the past few centuries? And what are the best predictions of global temperature change the Earth might expect for the next century? Recent publications [National Research Council (NRC), 2006; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2007] permit these questions to be answered in a single informative illustration by assembling temperature reconstructions of the past thousand years with predictions for the next century. The result, shown in Figure 1, illustrates present and future warming in the context of natural variations in the past [see also Oldfield and Alverson, 2003]. To quote a Chinese proverb, “A picture's meaning can express ten thousand words.” Because it succinctly captures past inferences and future projections of climate, the illustration should be of interest to scientists, educators, policy makers, and the public.
Climatic Change and Human Evolution.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Garratt, John R.
1995-01-01
Traces the history of the Earth over four billion years, and shows how climate has had an important role to play in the evolution of humans. Posits that the world's rapidly growing human population and its increasing use of energy is the cause of present-day changes in the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. (Author/JRH)
Biome redistribution under climate change
Dominique Bachelet; Ronald P. Neilson
2000-01-01
General warming in the Northern Hemisphere has been recorded since the end of the 1800s following the Little Ice Age. Records of glacier retreat during the last 100 years over the entire globe independently confirmed the recorded trend in global temperature rise. Several studies have illustrated various responses to this climate forcing, i.e., the recorded changes in...
Lawing, A Michelle; Polly, P David
2011-01-01
Mean annual temperature reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change increases at least 1.1°C to 6.4°C over the next 90 years. In context, a change in climate of 6°C is approximately the difference between the mean annual temperature of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and our current warm interglacial. Species have been responding to changing climate throughout Earth's history and their previous biological responses can inform our expectations for future climate change. Here we synthesize geological evidence in the form of stable oxygen isotopes, general circulation paleoclimate models, species' evolutionary relatedness, and species' geographic distributions. We use the stable oxygen isotope record to develop a series of temporally high-resolution paleoclimate reconstructions spanning the Middle Pleistocene to Recent, which we use to map ancestral climatic envelope reconstructions for North American rattlesnakes. A simple linear interpolation between current climate and a general circulation paleoclimate model of the LGM using stable oxygen isotope ratios provides good estimates of paleoclimate at other time periods. We use geologically informed rates of change derived from these reconstructions to predict magnitudes and rates of change in species' suitable habitat over the next century. Our approach to modeling the past suitable habitat of species is general and can be adopted by others. We use multiple lines of evidence of past climate (isotopes and climate models), phylogenetic topology (to correct the models for long-term changes in the suitable habitat of a species), and the fossil record, however sparse, to cross check the models. Our models indicate the annual rate of displacement in a clade of rattlesnakes over the next century will be 2 to 3 orders of magnitude greater (430-2,420 m/yr) than it has been on average for the past 320 ky (2.3 m/yr).
Lawing, A. Michelle; Polly, P. David
2011-01-01
Mean annual temperature reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change increases at least 1.1°C to 6.4°C over the next 90 years. In context, a change in climate of 6°C is approximately the difference between the mean annual temperature of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and our current warm interglacial. Species have been responding to changing climate throughout Earth's history and their previous biological responses can inform our expectations for future climate change. Here we synthesize geological evidence in the form of stable oxygen isotopes, general circulation paleoclimate models, species' evolutionary relatedness, and species' geographic distributions. We use the stable oxygen isotope record to develop a series of temporally high-resolution paleoclimate reconstructions spanning the Middle Pleistocene to Recent, which we use to map ancestral climatic envelope reconstructions for North American rattlesnakes. A simple linear interpolation between current climate and a general circulation paleoclimate model of the LGM using stable oxygen isotope ratios provides good estimates of paleoclimate at other time periods. We use geologically informed rates of change derived from these reconstructions to predict magnitudes and rates of change in species' suitable habitat over the next century. Our approach to modeling the past suitable habitat of species is general and can be adopted by others. We use multiple lines of evidence of past climate (isotopes and climate models), phylogenetic topology (to correct the models for long-term changes in the suitable habitat of a species), and the fossil record, however sparse, to cross check the models. Our models indicate the annual rate of displacement in a clade of rattlesnakes over the next century will be 2 to 3 orders of magnitude greater (430-2,420 m/yr) than it has been on average for the past 320 ky (2.3 m/yr). PMID:22164305
Transatlantic flight times and climate change
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Williams, Paul D.
Aircraft do not fly through a vacuum, but through an atmosphere whose meteorological characteristics are changing because of global warming. The impacts of aviation on climate change have long been recognised, but the impacts of climate change on aviation have only recently begun to emerge. These impacts include intensified turbulence and increased take-off weight restrictions. We investigate the influence of climate change on flight routes and journey times. We feed synthetic atmospheric wind fields generated from climate model simulations into a routing algorithm of the type used operationally by flight planners. We focus on transatlantic flights between London and Newmore » York, and how they change when the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide is doubled. We find that a strengthening of the prevailing jet-stream winds causes eastbound flights to significantly shorten and westbound flights to significantly lengthen in all seasons. Eastbound and westbound crossings in winter become approximately twice as likely to take under 5 h 20 min and over 7 h 00 min, respectively. Furthermore, for reasons that are explained using a conceptual model, the eastbound shortening and westbound lengthening do not cancel out, causing round-trip journey times to increase. Even assuming no future growth in aviation, the extrapolation of our results to all transatlantic traffic suggests that aircraft will collectively be airborne for an extra 2000 h each year, burning an extra 7.2 million gallons of jet fuel at a cost of US$ 22 million, and emitting an extra 70 million kg of carbon dioxide, which is equivalent to the annual emissions of 7100 average British homes. These results provide further evidence of the two-way interaction between aviation and climate change.« less
Transatlantic flight times and climate change
Williams, Paul D.
2016-02-10
Aircraft do not fly through a vacuum, but through an atmosphere whose meteorological characteristics are changing because of global warming. The impacts of aviation on climate change have long been recognised, but the impacts of climate change on aviation have only recently begun to emerge. These impacts include intensified turbulence and increased take-off weight restrictions. We investigate the influence of climate change on flight routes and journey times. We feed synthetic atmospheric wind fields generated from climate model simulations into a routing algorithm of the type used operationally by flight planners. We focus on transatlantic flights between London and Newmore » York, and how they change when the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide is doubled. We find that a strengthening of the prevailing jet-stream winds causes eastbound flights to significantly shorten and westbound flights to significantly lengthen in all seasons. Eastbound and westbound crossings in winter become approximately twice as likely to take under 5 h 20 min and over 7 h 00 min, respectively. Furthermore, for reasons that are explained using a conceptual model, the eastbound shortening and westbound lengthening do not cancel out, causing round-trip journey times to increase. Even assuming no future growth in aviation, the extrapolation of our results to all transatlantic traffic suggests that aircraft will collectively be airborne for an extra 2000 h each year, burning an extra 7.2 million gallons of jet fuel at a cost of US$ 22 million, and emitting an extra 70 million kg of carbon dioxide, which is equivalent to the annual emissions of 7100 average British homes. These results provide further evidence of the two-way interaction between aviation and climate change.« less
Climate change and dead zones.
Altieri, Andrew H; Gedan, Keryn B
2015-04-01
Estuaries and coastal seas provide valuable ecosystem services but are particularly vulnerable to the co-occurring threats of climate change and oxygen-depleted dead zones. We analyzed the severity of climate change predicted for existing dead zones, and found that 94% of dead zones are in regions that will experience at least a 2 °C temperature increase by the end of the century. We then reviewed how climate change will exacerbate hypoxic conditions through oceanographic, ecological, and physiological processes. We found evidence that suggests numerous climate variables including temperature, ocean acidification, sea-level rise, precipitation, wind, and storm patterns will affect dead zones, and that each of those factors has the potential to act through multiple pathways on both oxygen availability and ecological responses to hypoxia. Given the variety and strength of the mechanisms by which climate change exacerbates hypoxia, and the rates at which climate is changing, we posit that climate change variables are contributing to the dead zone epidemic by acting synergistically with one another and with recognized anthropogenic triggers of hypoxia including eutrophication. This suggests that a multidisciplinary, integrated approach that considers the full range of climate variables is needed to track and potentially reverse the spread of dead zones. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Climate change; Confronting the global experiment
Constance I. Millar
2006-01-01
Earth’s natural climate system is characterized by continually changing climates, with climate regimes that oscillate quasi-cyclically at multiple and nested scales from annual to multi-millennial, and commonly change abruptly. Under naturally changing climates, plant species track changes at all scales in individualistic manner, with plant communities...
Climate changes, shifting ranges
Romañach, Stephanie
2015-01-01
Even a fleeting mention of the Everglades conjures colorful images of alligators, panthers, flamingos, and manatees. Over the centuries, this familiar cast of characters has become synonymous with life in south Florida. But the workings of a changing climate have the potential to significantly alter the menagerie of animals that call this area home. Global projections suggest south Florida wildlife will need to contend with higher temperatures, drier conditions, and rising seas in the years ahead. Recent modeling efforts shed new light on the potential outcomes these changes may have for threatened and endangered species in the area.
Understanding Resistance to Climate Change Resistance.
Coyle, Maureen
2014-12-01
Fifty years after the emergence of warnings over the effects of the environmental impacts of industrialization and other conditions of a planet subjugated by humans, we are still entertaining discussions about the existence of the phenomena of climate change. Worse still, we have not checked the behaviors and conditions that exacerbate the rate of environmental destruction. Older people, particularly those who are economically vulnerable, are among those most at risk in disasters, including events resulting from climate change. By applying the "epistemologies of ignorance" outlined by Nancy Tuana, I attempt to understand the rooted ignorance that prevents acceptance of the environmental impact of human kind's unrepentant misuse of the world's natural resources and the refusal to curb the excesses that have lead to environmental damage that has had, and that will continue to have, dire consequences on the planet and for the most vulnerable denizens of Earth. Far from being a pessimistic project of abjection and despair, this article proposes that an examination of climate change denial can provide guidance for the development of a better counter-narrative. © The Author(s) 2015.
Climate change and the decline of a once common bird.
McClure, Christopher J W; Rolek, Brian W; McDonald, Kenneth; Hill, Geoffrey E
2012-02-01
Climate change is predicted to negatively impact wildlife through a variety of mechanisms including retraction of range. We used data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey and regional and global climate indices to examine the effects of climate change on the breeding distribution of the Rusty Blackbird (Euphagus carolinus), a formerly common species that is rapidly declining. We found that the range of the Rusty Blackbird retracted northward by 143 km since the 1960s and that the probability of local extinction was highest at the southern range margin. Furthermore, we found that the mean breeding latitude of the Rusty Blackbird was significant and positively correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation with a lag of six years. Because the annual distribution of the Rusty Blackbird is affected by annual weather patterns produced by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, our results support the hypothesis that directional climate change over the past 40 years is contributing to the decline of the Rusty Blackbird. Our study is the first to implicate climate change, acting through range retraction, in a major decline of a formerly common bird species.
From climate to global change: Following the footprint of Prof. Duzheng YE's research
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fu, Congbin
2017-10-01
To commemorate 100 years since the birth of Professor Duzheng YE, this paper reviews the contribution of Ye and his research team to the development from climate to global change science in the past 30 or so years, including: (1) the role of climate change in global change; (2) the critical time scales and predictability of global change; (3) the sensitive regions of global change—transitional zones of climate and ecosystems; and (4) orderly human activities and adaptation to global change, with a focus on the development of a proactive strategy for adaptation to such change.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Newhouse, Kay Berglund
2007-01-01
In this article, the author discusses how global warming makes the leap from the headlines to the classroom with thought-provoking science experiments. To teach her fifth-grade students about climate change, the author starts with a discussion of the United States' local climate. They extend this idea to contrast the local climate with others,…
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cullen, H. M.; Maibach, E.
2016-12-01
Most Americans view climate change as a threat that is distant in space (i.e., not here), time (i.e., not now), and species (i.e., not us). TV weathercasters are ideally positioned to educate Americans about the current and projected impacts of climate change in their community: they have tremendous reach, are trusted sources of climate information, and are highly skilled science communicators. In 2009, we learned that many weathercasters were potentially interested in reporting on climate change, but few actually were, citing significant barriers including a lack of time to prepare and air stories, and lack of access to high quality content. To test the premise that TV weathercasters can be effective climate educators - if supported with high quality localized climate communication content - in 2010 George Mason University, Climate Central and WLTX-TV (Columbia, SC) developed and pilot-tested Climate Matters, a series of short on-air (and online) segments about the local impacts of climate change, delivered by the station's chief meteorologist. During the first year, more than a dozen stories aired. To formally evaluate Climate Matters, we conducted pre- and post-test surveys of local TV news viewers in Columbia. After one year, WLTX viewers had developed a more science-based understanding of climate change than viewers of other local news stations, confirming our premise that when TV weathercasters report on the local implications of climate change, their viewers learn. Through a series of expansions, including the addition of important new partners - AMS, NASA, NOAA & Yale University - Climate Matters has become a comprehensive nationwide climate communication resource program for American TV weathercasters. As of March 2016, a network of 313 local weathercasters nationwide (at 202 stations in 111 media markets) are participating in the program, receiving new content on a weekly basis. This presentation will review the theoretical basis of the program, detail
Climate Change to the Year 2000: A Survey of Expert Opinion.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Institute for the Future, Menlo Park, CA.
This survey of expert opinion was conducted by the National Defense University, Washington, D.C. to quantify the likelihood of significant changes in climate and their practical consequences. The major objectives of the study are embodied in four tasks. This publication presents the results of the first task only: the definition and estimation of…
Weathercasters' views on climate change: A state-of-the-community review
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Timm, K.; Perkins, D. R., IV; Myers, T.; Maibach, E.
2017-12-01
As a community of practice, TV weathercasters are positioned at a crucial intersection between climate scientists and the general public. Weathercasters have the opportunity to use their scientific training and public communication skills to educate viewers about climate change. Though early research found high rates of skepticism about climate change among TV weathercasters, the most current and comprehensive analysis to date of TV weathercasters' views on climate change suggests that their views have evolved in several important ways. Surveys of all working TV weathercasters in the United States conducted in 2015, 2016 and 2017 show that the weathercaster community now holds views of climate change that are similar to that of climate scientists—in particular, that human-caused climate change is happening today and it is impacting American communities in many harmful ways. Ninety-five percent of TV weathercasters now believe that climate change (as defined by the American Meteorological Society) is occurring, and certainty in that belief has grown. Nearly 50% of TV weathercasters believe the climate change that has occurred over the past 50 years has been caused mostly (34%), or largely to entirely (15%), by human activity. Additionally, surveys suggest that weathercasters tend to underestimate the scientific consensus on climate change. Weathercasters, on average, estimate 75% of climate scientists believe humans have caused the majority of recent climate change as compared to the actual value of 97%. Despite convergence in weathercasters' climate change beliefs, this analysis suggests that opportunities remain for building climate literacy among America's TV weathercasters. Increasing this personal knowledge of climate change is one of several factors that empower weathercasters to become public climate educators to increase understanding of climate change causes in communities around the country.
Influence of local climate and climate change on aeroterrestrial phototrophic biofilms.
Gladis-Schmacka, Franziska; Glatzel, Stephan; Karsten, Ulf; Böttcher, Heidrun; Schumann, Rhena
2014-01-01
Aeroterrestrial phototrophic biofilms colonize natural and man-made surfaces and may damage the material they settle on. The occurrence of biofilms varies between regions with different climatic conditions. The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of meteorological factors on the growth of aeroterrestrial phototrophs. Phototrophic biomass was recorded on roof tiles at six sites within Germany five times over a period of five years and compared to climatic parameters from neighboring weather stations. All correlating meteorological factors influenced water availability on the surface of the roof tiles. The results indicate that the frequency of rainy days and not the mean precipitation per season is more important for biofilm proliferation. It is also inferred that the macroclimate is more important than the microclimate. In conclusion, changed (regional) climatic conditions may determine where in central Europe global change will promote or inhibit phototrophic growth in the future.
Climate Literacy: STEM and Climate Change Education and Remote Sensing Applications
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Reddy, S. R.
2015-12-01
NASA Innovations in Climate Education (NICE) is a competitive project to promote climate and Earth system science literacy and seeks to increase the access of underrepresented minority groups to science careers and educational opportunities. A three year funding was received from NASA to partnership with JSU and MSU under cooperative agreement "Strengthening Global Climate Change education through Remote Sensing Application in Coastal Environment using NASA Satellite Data and Models". The goal is to increase the number of highschool and undergraduate students at Jackson State University, a Historically Black University, who are prepared to pursue higher academic degrees and careers in STEM fields. A five Saturday course/workshop was held during March/April 2015 at JSU, focusing on historical and technical concepts of math, enginneering, technology and atmosphere and climate change and remote sensing technology and applications to weather and climate. Nine students from meteorology, biology, industrial technology and computer science/engineering of JSU and 19 high scool students from Jackson Public Schools participated in the course/workshop. The lecture topics include: introduction to remote sensing and GIS, introduction to atmospheric science, math and engineering, climate, introduction to NASA innovations in climate education, introduction to remote sensing technology for bio-geosphere, introduction to earth system science, principles of paleoclimatology and global change, daily weather briefing, satellite image interpretation and so on. In addition to lectures, lab sessions were held for hand-on experiences for remote sensing applications to atmosphere, biosphere, earth system science and climate change using ERDAS/ENVI GIS software and satellite tools. Field trip to Barnett reservoir and National weather Service (NWS) was part of the workshop. Basics of Earth System Science is a non-mathematical introductory course designed for high school seniors, high school
Abrupt climate change and transient climates during the Paleogene: a marine perspective.
Zachos, J C; Lohmann, K C; Walker, J C; Wise, S W
1993-03-01
Detailed investigations of high latitude sequences recently collected by the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) indicate that periods of rapid climate change often culminated in brief transient climates, with more extreme conditions than subsequent long term climates. Two examples of such events have been identified in the Paleogene; the first in latest Paleocene time in the middle of a warming trend that began several million years earlier: the second in earliest Oligocene time near the end of a Middle Eocene to Late Oligocene global cooling trend. Superimposed on the earlier event was a sudden and extreme warming of both high latitude sea surface and deep ocean waters. Imbedded in the latter transition was an abrupt decline in high latitude temperatures and the brief appearance of a full size continental ice-sheet on Antarctica. In both cases the climate extremes were not stable, lasting for less than a few hundred thousand years, indicating a temporary or transient climate state. Geochemical and sedimentological evidence suggest that both Paleogene climate events were accompanied by reorganizations in ocean circulation, and major perturbations in marine productivity and the global carbon cycle. The Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum was marked by reduced oceanic turnover and decreases in global delta 13C and in marine productivity, while the Early Oligocene glacial maximum was accompanied by intensification of deep ocean circulation and elevated delta 13C and productivity. It has been suggested that sudden changes in climate and/or ocean circulation might occur as a result of gradual forcing as certain physical thresholds are exceeded. We investigate the possibility that sudden reorganizations in ocean and/or atmosphere circulation during these abrupt transitions generated short-term positive feedbacks that briefly sustained these transient climatic states.
Abrupt climate change and transient climates during the Paleogene: a marine perspective
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Zachos, J. C.; Lohmann, K. C.; Walker, J. C.; Wise, S. W.
1993-01-01
Detailed investigations of high latitude sequences recently collected by the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) indicate that periods of rapid climate change often culminated in brief transient climates, with more extreme conditions than subsequent long term climates. Two examples of such events have been identified in the Paleogene; the first in latest Paleocene time in the middle of a warming trend that began several million years earlier: the second in earliest Oligocene time near the end of a Middle Eocene to Late Oligocene global cooling trend. Superimposed on the earlier event was a sudden and extreme warming of both high latitude sea surface and deep ocean waters. Imbedded in the latter transition was an abrupt decline in high latitude temperatures and the brief appearance of a full size continental ice-sheet on Antarctica. In both cases the climate extremes were not stable, lasting for less than a few hundred thousand years, indicating a temporary or transient climate state. Geochemical and sedimentological evidence suggest that both Paleogene climate events were accompanied by reorganizations in ocean circulation, and major perturbations in marine productivity and the global carbon cycle. The Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum was marked by reduced oceanic turnover and decreases in global delta 13C and in marine productivity, while the Early Oligocene glacial maximum was accompanied by intensification of deep ocean circulation and elevated delta 13C and productivity. It has been suggested that sudden changes in climate and/or ocean circulation might occur as a result of gradual forcing as certain physical thresholds are exceeded. We investigate the possibility that sudden reorganizations in ocean and/or atmosphere circulation during these abrupt transitions generated short-term positive feedbacks that briefly sustained these transient climatic states.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Weihs, R. R.
2013-12-01
A variety of Florida-focused climate change activities will be featured as part of the ASK Florida global and regional climate change professional development workshops. In a combined effort from Florida State University's Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) and University of South Florida's Coalition for Science Literacy (CSL), and supported by NASA's NICE initiative, the ASK Florida professional development workshops are a series of workshops designed to enhance and support climate change information and related pedagogical skills for middle school science teachers from Title-I schools in Florida. These workshops took place during a two-year period from 2011 to 2013 and consisted of two cohorts in Hillsborough and Volusia counties in Florida. Featured activities include lab-style exercises demonstrating topics such as storm surge and coastal geometry, sea level rise from thermal expansion, and the greenhouse effect. These types of labs are modified so that they allow more independent, inquiry thinking as they require teachers to design their own experiment in order to test a hypothesis. Lecture based activities are used to cover a broad range of topics including hurricanes, climate modeling, and sink holes. The more innovative activities are group activities that utilize roll-playing, technology and resources, and group discussion. For example, 'Climate Gallery Walk' is an activity that features group discussions on each of the climate literacy principles established by the United States Global Change Research Program. By observing discussions between individuals and groups, this activity helps the facilitators gather information on their previous knowledge and identify possible misconceptions that will be addressed within the workshops. Furthermore, 'Fact or Misconception' presents the challenge of identifying whether a given statement is fact or misconception based on the material covered throughout the workshops. It serves as a way to
Climate change and the water cycle in newly irrigated areas.
Abrahão, Raphael; García-Garizábal, Iker; Merchán, Daniel; Causapé, Jesús
2015-02-01
Climate change is affecting agriculture doubly: evapotranspiration is increasing due to increments in temperature while the availability of water resources is decreasing. Furthermore, irrigated areas are expanding worldwide. In this study, the dynamics of climate change impacts on the water cycle of a newly irrigated watershed are studied through the calculation of soil water balances. The study area was a 752-ha watershed located on the left side of the Ebro river valley, in Northeast Spain. The soil water balance procedures were carried out throughout 1827 consecutive days (5 years) of hydrological and agronomical monitoring in the study area. Daily data from two agroclimatic stations were used as well. Evaluation of the impact of climate change on the water cycle considered the creation of two future climate scenarios for comparison: 2070 decade with climate change and 2070 decade without climate change. The main indicators studied were precipitation, irrigation, reference evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, drainage from the watershed, and irrigation losses. The aridity index was also applied. The results represent a baseline scenario in which adaptation measures may be included and tested to reduce the impacts of climate change in the studied area and other similar areas.
USDA Southwest climate hub for climate change
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
The USDA Southwest (SW) Climate Hub was created in February 2014 to develop risk adaptation and mitigation strategies for coping with climate change effects on agricultural productivity. There are seven regional hubs across the country with three subsidiary hubs. The SW Climate Hub Region is made up...
Climate change and the biosphere
F. Stuart Chapin
2008-01-01
Scientific assessments now clearly demonstrate the ecologic and societal consequences of human induced climate change, as detailed by the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. Global warming spells danger for Earth's biomes, which in turn play an important role in climate change. On the following pages, you will read about some of...
Using a Global Climate Model in an On-line Climate Change Course
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Randle, D. E.; Chandler, M. A.; Sohl, L. E.
2012-12-01
Seminars on Science: Climate Change is an on-line, graduate-level teacher professional development course offered by the American Museum of Natural History. It is an intensive 6-week course covering a broad range of global climate topics, from the fundamentals of the climate system, to the causes of climate change, the role of paleoclimate investigations, and a discussion of potential consequences and risks. The instructional method blends essays, videos, textbooks, and linked websites, with required participation in electronic discussion forums that are moderated by an experienced educator and a course scientist. Most weeks include additional assignments. Three of these assignments employ computer models, including two weeks spent working with a full-fledged 3D global climate model (GCM). The global climate modeling environment is supplied through a partnership with Columbia University's Educational Global Climate Modeling Project (EdGCM). The objective is to have participants gain hands-on experience with one of the most important, yet misunderstood, aspects of climate change research. Participants in the course are supplied with a USB drive that includes installers for the software and sample data. The EdGCM software includes a version of NASA's global climate model fitted with a graphical user interface and pre-loaded with several climate change simulations. Step-by-step assignments and video tutorials help walk people through these challenging exercises and the course incorporates a special assignment discussion forum to help with technical problems and questions about the NASA GCM. There are several takeaways from our first year and a half of offering this course, which has become one of the most popular out of the twelve courses offered by the Museum. Participants report a high level of satisfaction in using EdGCM. Some report frustration at the initial steps, but overwhelmingly claim that the assignments are worth the effort. Many of the difficulties that
Conflict in a changing climate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Carleton, T.; Hsiang, S. M.; Burke, M.
2016-05-01
A growing body of research illuminates the role that changes in climate have had on violent conflict and social instability in the recent past. Across a diversity of contexts, high temperatures and irregular rainfall have been causally linked to a range of conflict outcomes. These findings can be paired with climate model output to generate projections of the impact future climate change may have on conflicts such as crime and civil war. However, there are large degrees of uncertainty in such projections, arising from (i) the statistical uncertainty involved in regression analysis, (ii) divergent climate model predictions, and (iii) the unknown ability of human societies to adapt to future climate change. In this article, we review the empirical evidence of the climate-conflict relationship, provide insight into the likely extent and feasibility of adaptation to climate change as it pertains to human conflict, and discuss new methods that can be used to provide projections that capture these three sources of uncertainty.
Climate Change, Salmon in the NOAA Budget Spotlight
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Showstack, Randy
2004-05-01
A U.S. Senate hearing on 29 April about the administration's proposed budget for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration fiscal year 2005 turned testy when senators pressed for specific information about the agency's programs on abrupt climate change and protecting wild salmon. Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine), chair of the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation's Subcommittee on Oceans, Fisheries, and Coast Guard, expressed concern that funding for the agency's program on abrupt climate change appears to be eliminated in the proposed budget.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Abramoff, R. Z.
2012-12-01
Climate change is not included in the K-8 science standards in Massachusetts; as a result, students learn what climate is, but not how human activities affect it. Starting in 2010, Boston University launched the GK-12 GLACIER program, funded with 2.9M from the National Science Foundation. The purpose of the program is to incorporate the fundamentals of climate change into the K-12 curriculum, focusing on grades 5-8 when quantitative science enters the curriculum. Graduate students are partnered with teachers in Boston public schools for 10 hours a week of teaching with additional curriculum development. I will focus on the curriculum that I developed as a part of this program for the 5th grade science class at The Curley School in Jamaica Plain, MA, where I worked with Grades 3-5, ESL, and PACE autism program science teacher, Stephanie Selznick. The Curley School is an ethnically and economically diverse Boston public school with about 800 students and an 83% minority population. At the Curley, I taught two full days a week, meeting with all of the 5th grade classes and some of the 4th grade classes of all academic levels. The lessons that I created were designed to fit into the state standards and enrich student understanding plant ecology and earth science, as well as develop their capacity to design experiments and use technology. These include Question of the Day, Digital Field Guide to the Outdoor Classroom, Phototropism, Solar System Weather Report, Soil and Water, Local Landforms, and the Earth as a Closed System Unit for which materials and lesson plans are available on my website. Our secondary goals were to improve tech literacy at Curley. Due to funding restrictions, there were few technology resources available to the students at the beginning of the 2011/2012 school year. To improve technology resources at Curley, I organized a fundraiser at Boston University, selling donated items from graduate students and faculty; the 1000 raised was used to supply
Zhang, Yue; Li, Lin; Wang, Hongbin; Zhang, Yao; Wang, Naijia; Chen, Junpeng
2017-10-01
As an important crop growing area, Northeast China (NEC) plays a vital role in China's food security, which has been severely affected by climate change in recent years. Vegetation phenology in this region is sensitive to climate change, and currently, the relationship between the phenology of NEC and climate change remains unclear. In this study, we used a satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to obtain the temporal patterns of the land surface phenology in NEC from 2000 to 2015 and validated the results using ground phenology observations. We then explored the relationships among land surface phenology, temperature, precipitation, and sunshine hours for relevant periods. Our results showed that the NEC experienced great phenological changes in terms of spatial heterogeneity during 2000-2015. The spatial patterns of land surface phenology mainly changed with altitude and land cover type. In most regions of NEC, the start date of land surface phenology had advanced by approximately 1.0 days year -1 , and the length of land surface phenology had been prolonged by approximately 1.0 days year -1 except for the needle-leaf and cropland areas, due to the warm conditions. We found that a distinct inter-annual variation in land surface phenology related to climate variables, even if some areas presented non-significant trends. Land surface phenology was coupled with climate variables and distinct responses at different combinations of temperature, precipitation, sunshine hours, altitude, and anthropogenic influence. These findings suggest that remote sensing and our phenology extracting methods hold great potential for helping to understand how land surface phenology is sensitive to global climate change.
Changes in future fire regimes under climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Thonicke, Kirsten; von Bloh, Werner; Lutz, Julia; Knorr, Wolfgang; Wu, Minchao; Arneth, Almut
2013-04-01
Fires are expected to change under future climate change, climatic fire is is increasing due to increase in droughts and heat waves affecting vegetation productivity and ecosystem function. Vegetation productivity influences fuel production, but can also limit fire spread. Vegetation-fire models allow investigating the interaction between wildfires and vegetation dynamics, thus non-linear effects between changes in fuel composition and production on fire as well as changes in fire regimes on fire-related plant mortality and fuel combustion. Here we present results from simulation experiments, where the vegetation-fire models LPJmL-SPITFIRE and LPJ-GUESS are applied to future climate change scenarios from regional climate models in Europe and Northern Africa. Climate change impacts on fire regimes, vegetation dynamics and carbon fluxes are quantified and presented. New fire-prone regions are mapped and changes in fire regimes of ecosystems with a long-fire history are analyzed. Fuel limitation is likely to increase in Mediterranean-type ecosystems, indicating non-linear connection between increasing fire risk and fuel production. Increased warming in temperate ecosystems in Eastern Europe and continued fuel production leads to increases not only in climatic fire risk, but also area burnt and biomass burnt. This has implications for fire management, where adaptive capacity to this new vulnerability might be limited.
Climate Change Through a Poverty Lens
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rozenberg, J.; Hallegatte, S.
2017-12-01
Analysis of the economic impact of climate change typically considers regional or national economies and assesses its impact on macroeconomic aggregates such as gross domestic product. These studies therefore do not investigate the distributional impacts of climate change within countries or the impacts on poverty. This Perspective aims to close this gap and provide an assessment of climate change impacts at the household level to investigate the consequences of climate change for poverty and for poor people. It does so by combining assessments of the physical impacts of climate change in various sectors with household surveys. In particular, it highlights how rapid and inclusive development can reduce the future impact of climate change on poverty.
Climate change through a poverty lens
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hallegatte, Stephane; Rozenberg, Julie
2017-04-01
Analysis of the economic impact of climate change typically considers regional or national economies and assesses its impact on macroeconomic aggregates such as gross domestic product. These studies therefore do not investigate the distributional impacts of climate change within countries or the impacts on poverty. This Perspective aims to close this gap and provide an assessment of climate change impacts at the household level to investigate the consequences of climate change for poverty and for poor people. It does so by combining assessments of the physical impacts of climate change in various sectors with household surveys. In particular, it highlights how rapid and inclusive development can reduce the future impact of climate change on poverty.
Genetics of climate change adaptation.
Franks, Steven J; Hoffmann, Ary A
2012-01-01
The rapid rate of current global climate change is having strong effects on many species and, at least in some cases, is driving evolution, particularly when changes in conditions alter patterns of selection. Climate change thus provides an opportunity for the study of the genetic basis of adaptation. Such studies include a variety of observational and experimental approaches, such as sampling across clines, artificial evolution experiments, and resurrection studies. These approaches can be combined with a number of techniques in genetics and genomics, including association and mapping analyses, genome scans, and transcription profiling. Recent research has revealed a number of candidate genes potentially involved in climate change adaptation and has also illustrated that genetic regulatory networks and epigenetic effects may be particularly relevant for evolution driven by climate change. Although genetic and genomic data are rapidly accumulating, we still have much to learn about the genetic architecture of climate change adaptation.
Capturing Tweets on Climate Change: What is the role of Twitter in Climate Change Communication?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ngo, A. M.; McNeal, K.; Luginbuhl, S.; Enteen, J.
2015-12-01
Climate change is a major environmental issue that is often discussed throughout the world using social media outlets such as Twitter. This research followed and collected tweets about climate change as they related to two events: (i) the June 18, 2015 release of the Encyclical by Pope Francis which included content about climate change and (ii) the upcoming COP21 conference, a United Nations climate change conference, to be held on Dec. 7-8, 2015 in Paris. Using a Twitter account and Ncapture we were able to collect tens of thousands of climate change related tweets that were then loaded into a program called Nvivo which stored the tweets and associated publically available user information. We followed a few major hashtags such as COP21, UNFCCC, @climate, and the Pope. We examined twitter users, the information sources, locations, number of re-tweets, and frequency of tweets as well as the category of the tweet in regard to positive, negative, and neutral positions about climate. Frequency analysis of tweets over a 10 day period of the Encyclical event showed that ~200 tweets per day were made prior to the event, with ~1000 made on the day of the event, and ~100 per day following the event. For the COP21 event, activity ranged from 2000-3000 tweets per day. For the Encyclical event, an analysis of 1100 tweets on the day of release indicated that 47% of the tweets had a positive perspective about climate change, 50% were neutral, 1% negative, and 2% were unclear. For the COP21 event, an analysis of 342 tweets randomly sampled from 31,721 tweets, showed that 53% of the tweets had a positive perspective about climate change, 12% were neutral, 13% negative, and 22% were unclear. Differences in the frequency and perspectives of tweets were likely due to the nature of the events, one a long-term and recurring international event and the other a single international religious-oriented event. We tabulated the top 10 tweets about climate change as they relate to these two
Global Climate Change Pilot Course Project
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schuenemann, K. C.; Wagner, R.
2011-12-01
In fall 2011 a pilot course on "Global Climate Change" is being offered, which has been proposed to educate urban, diverse, undergraduate students about climate change at the introductory level. The course has been approved to fulfill two general college requirements, a natural sciences requirement that focuses on the scientific method, as well as a global diversity requirement. This course presents the science behind global climate change from an Earth systems and atmospheric science perspective. These concepts then provide the basis to explore the effect of global warming on regions throughout the world. Climate change has been taught as a sub-topic in other courses in the past solely using scientific concepts, with little success in altering the climate change misconceptions of the students. This pilot course will see if new, innovative projects described below can make more of an impact on the students' views of climate change. Results of the successes or failures of these projects will be reported, as well as results of a pre- and post-course questionnaire on climate change given to students taking the course. Students in the class will pair off and choose a global region or country that they will research, write papers on, and then represent in four class discussions spaced throughout the semester. The first report will include details on the current climate of their region and how the climate shapes that region's society and culture. The second report will discuss how that region is contributing to climate change and/or sequestering greenhouse gases. Thirdly, students will discuss observed and predicted changes in that region's climate and what impact it has had, and could have, on their society. Lastly, students will report on what role their region has played in mitigating climate change, any policies their region may have implemented, and how their region can or cannot adapt to future climate changes. They will also try to get a feel for the region
Climate change and children's health.
Bernstein, Aaron S; Myers, Samuel S
2011-04-01
To present the latest data that demonstrate how climate change affects children's health and to identify the principal ways in which climate change puts children's health at risk. Data continue to emerge that further implicate climate change as contributing to health burdens in children. Climate models have become even more sophisticated and consistently forecast that greenhouse gas emissions will lead to higher mean temperatures that promote more intense storms and droughts, both of which have profound implications for child health. Recent climate models shed light upon the spread of vector-borne disease, including Lyme disease in North America and malaria in Africa. Modeling studies have found that conditions conducive to forest fires, which generate harmful air pollutants and damage agriculture, are likely to become more prevalent in this century due to the effects of greenhouse gases added to earth's atmosphere. Through many pathways, and in particular via placing additional stress upon the availability of food, clean air, and clean water and by potentially expanding the burden of disease from certain vector-borne diseases, climate change represents a major threat to child health. Pediatricians have already seen and will increasingly see the adverse health effects of climate change in their practices. Because of this, and many other reasons, pediatricians have a unique capacity to help resolve the climate change problem.
New Community Education Program on Oceans and Global Climate Change: Results from Our Pilot Year
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bruno, B. C.; Wiener, C.
2010-12-01
Ocean FEST (Families Exploring Science Together) engages elementary school students and their parents and teachers in hands-on science. Through this evening program, we educate participants about ocean and earth science issues that are relevant to their local communities. In the process, we hope to inspire more underrepresented students, including Native Hawaiians, Pacific Islanders and girls, to pursue careers in the ocean and earth sciences. Hawaii and the Pacific Islands will be disproportionately affected by the impacts of global climate change, including rising sea levels, coastal erosion, coral reef degradation and ocean acidification. It is therefore critically important to train ocean and earth scientists within these communities. This two-hour program explores ocean properties and timely environmental topics through six hands-on science activities. Activities are designed so students can see how globally important issues (e.g., climate change and ocean acidification) have local effects (e.g., sea level rise, coastal erosion, coral bleaching) which are particularly relevant to island communities. The Ocean FEST program ends with a career component, drawing parallel between the program activities and the activities done by "real scientists" in their jobs. The take-home message is that we are all scientists, we do science every day, and we can choose to do this as a career. Ocean FEST just completed our pilot year. During the 2009-2010 academic year, we conducted 20 events, including 16 formal events held at elementary schools and 4 informal outreach events. Evaluation data were collected at all formal events. Formative feedback from adult participants (parents, teachers, administrators and volunteers) was solicited through written questionnaires. Students were invited to respond to a survey of five questions both before and after the program to see if there were any changes in content knowledge and career attitudes. In our presentation, we will present our
Dynamic response of airborne infections to climate change: predictions for varicella
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Baker, R.; Mahmud, A. S.; Metcalf, C. J. E.
2017-12-01
Characterizing how climate change will alter the burden of infectious diseases has clear applications for public health policy. Despite our uniquely detailed understanding of the transmission process for directly transmitted infections, the impact of climate variables on these infections remains understudied. We develop a novel methodology for estimating the causal relationship between climate and directly transmitted infections, which combines an epidemiological model of disease transmission with panel regression techniques. Our method allows us to move beyond correlational approaches to studying the link between climate and infectious diseases. Further, we can generate semi-mechanistic projections of incidence across climate scenarios. We illustrate our approach using 30 years of reported cases of varicella, a common airborne childhood infection, across 32 states in Mexico. We find significantly increased varicella transmission in drier conditions. We use this to map potential changes in the magnitude and variability of varicella incidence in Mexico as a result of projected changes in future climate conditions. Our results indicate that the predicted decrease in humidity in Mexico towards the end of the century will increase incidence of varicella, all else equal, and that these changes in incidence will be non-uniform across the year.
Nevada Infrastructure for Climate Change Science, Education, and Outreach
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dana, G. L.; Lancaster, N.; Mensing, S. A.; Piechota, T.
2008-12-01
The Great Basin is characterized by complex basin and range topography, arid to semiarid climate, and a history of sensitivity to climate change. Mountain areas comprise about 10% of the landscape, yet are the areas of highest precipitation and generate 85% of groundwater recharge and most surface runoff. These characteristics provide an ideal natural laboratory to study the effects of climate change. The Nevada system of Higher Education, including the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, the University of Nevada, Reno, the Desert Research Institute, and Nevada State College have begun a five year research and infrastructure building program, funded by the National Science Foundation Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (NSF EPSCoR) with the vision "to create a statewide interdisciplinary program and virtual climate change center that will stimulate transformative research, education, and outreach on the effects of regional climate change on ecosystem resources (especially water) and support use of this knowledge by policy makers and stakeholders." Six major strategies are proposed to develop infrastructure needs and attain our vision: 1) Develop a capability to model climate change at a regional and sub-regional scale(Climate Modeling Component) 2) Analyze effects on ecosystems and disturbance regimes (Ecological Change Component) 3) Quantify and model changes in water balance and resources under climate change (Water Resources Component) 4) Assess effects on human systems and enhance policy making and outreach to communities and stakeholders (Policy, Decision-Making, and Outreach Component) 5) Develop a data portal and software to support interdisciplinary research via integration of data from observational networks and modeling (Cyberinfrastructure Component) and 6) Train teachers and students at all levels and provide public outreach in climate change issues (Education Component). Two new climate observational transects will be established across
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Oblak, Jackie
2000-01-01
Presents an activity with the objective of encouraging students to think about the effects of climate change. Explains background information on dependence to climate and discuses whether climate change is important. Provides information for the activity, extensions, and evaluation. (YDS)
Politics of climate change belief
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
2017-01-01
Donald Trump's actions during the election and his first weeks as US president-elect send a strong message about his belief in climate change, or lack thereof. However, these actions may reflect polarization of climate change beliefs, not climate mitigation behaviour.
[Research advances in vulnerability assessment of natural ecosystem response to climate change].
Zhao, Hui-xia; Wu, Shao-hong; Jiang, Lu-guang
2007-02-01
Climate change with global warming as the sign has been caught great attention by the governments, international organizations, and scientists in the world. Human society and natural ecosystem are both exposed to climate change, and more and more people are waked up by its increasing harm. Vulnerability analysis and assessment are the key and basis for adapting and mitigating climate change, being the highlight in the research fields of climate change and ecology in recent years. The vulnerability assessment of climate change is being carried out in various research fields and on different scales, and much progress has been made. This paper introduced the concept of vulnerability, and summarized the research progress in vulnerability assessment of climate change, with the focus on the frame and methodology of vulnerability assessment of natural ecosystem response to climate change. The existed problems and future prospects in this research area were also discussed.
Psychological research and global climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Clayton, Susan; Devine-Wright, Patrick; Stern, Paul C.; Whitmarsh, Lorraine; Carrico, Amanda; Steg, Linda; Swim, Janet; Bonnes, Mirilia
2015-07-01
Human behaviour is integral not only to causing global climate change but also to responding and adapting to it. Here, we argue that psychological research should inform efforts to address climate change, to avoid misunderstandings about human behaviour and motivations that can lead to ineffective or misguided policies. We review three key research areas: describing human perceptions of climate change; understanding and changing individual and household behaviour that drives climate change; and examining the human impacts of climate change and adaptation responses. Although much has been learned in these areas, we suggest important directions for further research.
Eye tracking and climate change: How is climate literacy information processed?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Williams, C. C.; McNeal, K. S.
2011-12-01
The population of the Southeastern United States is perceived to be resistant to information regarding global climate change. The Climate Literacy Partnership in the Southeast (CLiPSE) project was formed to provide a resource for climate science information. As part of this project, we are evaluating the way that education materials influence the interpretation of climate change related information. At Mississippi State University, a study is being conducted examining how individuals from the Southeastern United States process climate change information and whether or not the interaction with such information impacts the interpretation of subsequent climate change related information. By observing the patterns both before and after an educational intervention, we are able to evaluate the effectiveness of the climate change information on an individual's interpretation of related information. Participants in this study view figures describing various types of climate change related information (CO2 emissions, sea levels, etc.) while their eye movements are tracked to determine a baseline for the way that they process this type of graphical data. Specifically, we are examining time spent viewing and number of fixations on critical portions of the figures prior to exposure to an educational document on climate change. Following the baseline period, we provide participants with portions of a computerized version of Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences that the participants read at their own pace while their eye movements are monitored. Participants are told that they will be given a test on the material after reading the resource. After reading the excerpt, participants are presented with a new set of climate change related figures to interpret (with eye tracking) along with a series of questions regarding information contained in the resource. We plan to evaluate changes that occur in the way that climate change related information is
Climate Trends and Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Change in Zambia.
Mulenga, Brian P; Wineman, Ayala; Sitko, Nicholas J
2017-02-01
A number of studies use meteorological records to analyze climate trends and assess the impact of climate change on agricultural yields. While these provide quantitative evidence on climate trends and the likely effects thereof, they incorporate limited qualitative analysis of farmers' perceptions of climate change and/or variability. The present study builds on the quantitative methods used elsewhere to analyze climate trends, and in addition compares local narratives of climate change with evidence found in meteorological records in Zambia. Farmers offer remarkably consistent reports of a rainy season that is growing shorter and less predictable. For some climate parameters-notably, rising average temperature-there is a clear overlap between farmers' observations and patterns found in the meteorological records. However, the data do not support the perception that the rainy season used to begin earlier, and we generally do not detect a reported increase in the frequency of dry spells. Several explanations for these discrepancies are offered. Further, we provide policy recommendations to help farmers adapt to climate change/variability, as well as suggestions to shape future climate change policies, programs, and research in developing countries.
Climate Change Research in View of Bibliometrics
Haunschild, Robin; Bornmann, Lutz; Marx, Werner
2016-01-01
This bibliometric study of a large publication set dealing with research on climate change aims at mapping the relevant literature from a bibliometric perspective and presents a multitude of quantitative data: (1) The growth of the overall publication output as well as (2) of some major subfields, (3) the contributing journals and countries as well as their citation impact, and (4) a title word analysis aiming to illustrate the time evolution and relative importance of specific research topics. The study is based on 222,060 papers (articles and reviews only) published between 1980 and 2014. The total number of papers shows a strong increase with a doubling every 5–6 years. Continental biomass related research is the major subfield, closely followed by climate modeling. Research dealing with adaptation, mitigation, risks, and vulnerability of global warming is comparatively small, but their share of papers increased exponentially since 2005. Research on vulnerability and on adaptation published the largest proportion of very important papers (in terms of citation impact). Climate change research has become an issue also for disciplines beyond the natural sciences. The categories Engineering and Social Sciences show the strongest field-specific relative increase. The Journal of Geophysical Research, the Journal of Climate, the Geophysical Research Letters, and Climatic Change appear at the top positions in terms of the total number of papers published. Research on climate change is quantitatively dominated by the USA, followed by the UK, Germany, and Canada. The citation-based indicators exhibit consistently that the UK has produced the largest proportion of high impact papers compared to the other countries (having published more than 10,000 papers). Also, Switzerland, Denmark and also The Netherlands (with a publication output between around 3,000 and 6,000 papers) perform top—the impact of their contributions is on a high level. The title word analysis shows
Climate Change Research in View of Bibliometrics.
Haunschild, Robin; Bornmann, Lutz; Marx, Werner
2016-01-01
This bibliometric study of a large publication set dealing with research on climate change aims at mapping the relevant literature from a bibliometric perspective and presents a multitude of quantitative data: (1) The growth of the overall publication output as well as (2) of some major subfields, (3) the contributing journals and countries as well as their citation impact, and (4) a title word analysis aiming to illustrate the time evolution and relative importance of specific research topics. The study is based on 222,060 papers (articles and reviews only) published between 1980 and 2014. The total number of papers shows a strong increase with a doubling every 5-6 years. Continental biomass related research is the major subfield, closely followed by climate modeling. Research dealing with adaptation, mitigation, risks, and vulnerability of global warming is comparatively small, but their share of papers increased exponentially since 2005. Research on vulnerability and on adaptation published the largest proportion of very important papers (in terms of citation impact). Climate change research has become an issue also for disciplines beyond the natural sciences. The categories Engineering and Social Sciences show the strongest field-specific relative increase. The Journal of Geophysical Research, the Journal of Climate, the Geophysical Research Letters, and Climatic Change appear at the top positions in terms of the total number of papers published. Research on climate change is quantitatively dominated by the USA, followed by the UK, Germany, and Canada. The citation-based indicators exhibit consistently that the UK has produced the largest proportion of high impact papers compared to the other countries (having published more than 10,000 papers). Also, Switzerland, Denmark and also The Netherlands (with a publication output between around 3,000 and 6,000 papers) perform top-the impact of their contributions is on a high level. The title word analysis shows that
Climatic Changes on Tibetan Plateau Based on Ice Core Records
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yao, T.
2008-12-01
Climatic changes have been reconstructed for the Tibetan Plateau based on ice core records. The Guliya ice core on the Tibetan Plateau presents climatic changes in the past 100,000 years, thus is comparative with that from Vostok ice core in Antarctica and GISP2 record in Arctic. These three records share an important common feature, i.e., our climate is not stable. It is also evident that the major patterns of climatic changes are similar on the earth. Why does climatic change over the earth follow a same pattern? It might be attributed to solar radiation. We found that the cold periods correspond to low insolation periods, and warm periods to high insolation periods. We found abrupt climatic change in the ice core climatic records, which presented dramatic temperature variation of as much as 10 °C in 50 or 60 years. Our major challenge in the study of both climate and environment is that greenhouse gases such as CO2, CH4 are possibly amplifying global warming, though at what degree remains unclear. One of the ways to understand the role of greenhouse gases is to reconstruct the past greenhouse gases recorded in ice. In 1997, we drilled an ice core from 7100 m a.s.l. in the Himalayas to reconstruct methane record. Based on the record, we found seasonal cycles in methane variation. In particular, the methane concentration is high in summer, suggestiing active methane emission from wet land in summer. Based on the seasonal cycle, we can reconstruct the methane fluctuation history in the past 500 years. The most prominent feature of the methane record in the Himalayan ice core is the abrupt increase since 1850 A.D.. This is closely related to the industrial revolution worldwide. We can also observe sudden decrease in methane concentration during the World War I and World War II. It implies that the industrial revolution has dominated the atmospheric greenhouse gas emission for about 100 years. Besides, the average methane concentration in the Himalayan ice core is
The impact of climate change on the water resource
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Perac, Marija Å.; Grgurevac, Anamarija
2010-05-01
The EU has defined dangerous climate change as an increase in 2 degrees Celsius of average global temperatures. Rising global temperatures will lead to an intensification of hydrological cycle, resulting in dryer dry season, and subsequently heightened risk of more extreme and frequent floods and drought. Climate change is caused by greenhouse gasses ( GHGs), which enhance the " greenhouse " properties of the earth's atmosphere. These gasses allow solar radiation from the sun to travel through the atmosphere but prevent the reflected heat from escaping back into space. This causes the earth's temperature to rise. Changing climate will also have significant impacts on the availability of water as well as the quality of water that is available and accessible. Possibly, climate change magnificent impact at water cycles in Croatia. It means more droughts, it will have impact in agriculture and natural systems, specially swamp areas. Also, it will be come to reduction river flows, and maybe lower underground water level which used for water supply. Climate change can be impact on intensity of floods and quality/quantity of water.Successes of climate change in Croatia are: decrease volume of precipitation at whole state area; long drought years directly water quantity for irrigation; decreasing drinking water. Ponder able for next 40 years mean temperature will be increase for 2,5 C. It assumes that sea level will be increase at 65 - 100 cm. It will be endanger cities and settlements besides coast ( cities: Split, Zadar; west coast of Istra; delta of Neretva; islands: Krk, Cres, Lošinj…). Suggestions for next activities: monitoring and notation hydro meteorological information's; account impact of climate change on the: evaporation, drain, water balance, water management activity, make a region impact study of a possibly account on the water resources. Maintaining and development of water resources and agrotehnical systems and application water management strategy
Maritime Archaeology and Climate Change: An Invitation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wright, Jeneva
2016-12-01
Maritime archaeology has a tremendous capacity to engage with climate change science. The field is uniquely positioned to support climate change research and the understanding of past human adaptations to climate change. Maritime archaeological data can inform on environmental shifts and submerged sites can serve as an important avenue for public outreach by mobilizing public interest and action towards understanding the impacts of climate change. Despite these opportunities, maritime archaeologists have not fully developed a role within climate change science and policy. Moreover, submerged site vulnerabilities stemming from climate change impacts are not yet well understood. This article discusses potential climate change threats to maritime archaeological resources, the challenges confronting cultural resource managers, and the contributions maritime archaeology can offer to climate change science. Maritime archaeology's ability to both support and benefit from climate change science argues its relevant and valuable place in the global climate change dialogue, but also reveals the necessity for our heightened engagement.
Malaria ecology and climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
McCord, G. C.
2016-05-01
Understanding the costs that climate change will exact on society is crucial to devising an appropriate policy response. One of the channels through while climate change will affect human society is through vector-borne diseases whose epidemiology is conditioned by ambient ecology. This paper introduces the literature on malaria, its cost on society, and the consequences of climate change to the physics community in hopes of inspiring synergistic research in the area of climate change and health. It then demonstrates the use of one ecological indicator of malaria suitability to provide an order-of-magnitude assessment of how climate change might affect the malaria burden. The average of Global Circulation Model end-of-century predictions implies a 47% average increase in the basic reproduction number of the disease in today's malarious areas, significantly complicating malaria elimination efforts.
Emerging migration flows in a changing climate in dryland Africa
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kniveton, Dominic R.; Smith, Christopher D.; Black, Richard
2012-06-01
Fears of the movement of large numbers of people as a result of changes in the environment were first voiced in the 1980s (ref. ). Nearly thirty years later the numbers likely to migrate as a result of the impacts of climate change are still, at best, guesswork. Owing to the high prevalence of rainfed agriculture, many livelihoods in sub-Saharan African drylands are particularly vulnerable to changes in climate. One commonly adopted response strategy used by populations to deal with the resulting livelihood stress is migration. Here, we use an agent-based model developed around the theory of planned behaviour to explore how climate and demographic change, defined by the ENSEMBLES project and the United Nations Statistics Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs, combine to influence migration within and from Burkina Faso. The emergent migration patterns modelled support framing the nexus of climate change and migration as a complex adaptive system. Using this conceptual framework, we show that the extent of climate-change-related migration is likely to be highly nonlinear and the extent of this nonlinearity is dependent on population growth; therefore supporting migration policy interventions based on both demographic and climate change adaptation.
Successfully Integrating Climate Change Education into School System Curriculum
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Scallion, M.
2017-12-01
Maryland's Eastern Shore is threatened by climate change driven sea level rise. By working with school systems, rather than just with individual teachers, educators can gain access to an entire grade level of students, assuring that all students, regardless of socioeconomic background or prior coursework have an opportunity to explore the climate issue and be part of crafting community level solutions for their communities. We will address the benefits of working with school system partners to achieve a successful integration of in-school and outdoor learning by making teachers and administrators part of the process. We will explore how, through the Maryland and Delaware Climate Change Education, Assessment, and Research Project, teachers, content supervisors and informal educators worked together to create a climate curriculum with local context that effectively meets Common Core and Next Generation Science Standards. Over the course of several weeks during the year, students engage in a series of in-class and field activities directly correlated with their science curriculum. Wetlands and birds are used as examples of the local wildlife and habitat being impacted by climate change. Through these lessons led by Pickering Creek Audubon Center educators and strengthened by material covered by classroom teachers, students get a thorough introduction to the mechanism of climate change, local impacts of climate change on habitats and wildlife, and actions they can take as a community to mitigate the effects of climate change. The project concludes with a habitat and carbon stewardship project that gives students and teachers a sense of hope as they tackle this big issue on a local scale. We'll explore how the MADE-CLEAR Informal Climate Change Education (ICCE) Community of Practice supports Delaware and Maryland environmental educators in collaboratively learning and expanding their programming on the complex issue of climate change. Participants will learn how to
Creationism & Climate Change (Invited)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Newton, S.
2009-12-01
Although creationists focus on the biological sciences, recently creationists have also expanded their attacks to include the earth sciences, especially on the topic of climate change. The creationist effort to deny climate change, in addition to evolution and radiometric dating, is part of a broader denial of the methodology and validity of science itself. Creationist misinformation can pose a serious problem for science educators, who are further hindered by the poor treatment of the earth sciences and climate change in state science standards. Recent changes to Texas’ science standards, for example, require that students learn “different views on the existence of global warming.” Because of Texas’ large influence on the national textbook market, textbooks presenting non-scientific “different views” about climate change—or simply omitting the subject entirely because of the alleged “controversy”—could become part of K-12 classrooms across the country.
Tracking of climatic niche boundaries under recent climate change.
La Sorte, Frank A; Jetz, Walter
2012-07-01
1. Global climate has changed significantly during the past 30 years and especially in northern temperate regions which have experienced poleward shifts in temperature regimes. While there is evidence that some species have responded by moving their distributions to higher latitudes, the efficiency of this response in tracking species' climatic niche boundaries over time has yet to be addressed. 2. Here, we provide a continental assessment of the temporal structure of species responses to recent spatial shifts in climatic conditions. We examined geographic associations with minimum winter temperature for 59 species of winter avifauna at 476 Christmas Bird Count circles in North America from 1975 to 2009 under three sampling schemes that account for spatial and temporal sampling effects. 3. Minimum winter temperature associated with species occurrences showed an overall increase with a weakening trend after 1998. Species displayed highly variable responses that, on average and across sampling schemes, contained a strong lag effect that weakened in strength over time. In general, the conservation of minimum winter temperature was relevant when all species were considered together but only after an initial lag period (c. 35 years) was overcome. The delayed niche tracking observed at the combined species level was likely supported by the post1998 lull in the warming trend. 4. There are limited geographic and ecological explanations for the observed variability, suggesting that the efficiency of species' responses under climate change is likely to be highly idiosyncratic and difficult to predict. This outcome is likely to be even more pronounced and time lags more persistent for less vagile taxa, particularly during the periods of consistent or accelerating warming. Current modelling efforts and conservation strategies need to better appreciate the variation, strength and duration of lag effects and their association with climatic variability. Conservation
Assessment of bias correction under transient climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Van Schaeybroeck, Bert; Vannitsem, Stéphane
2015-04-01
Calibration of climate simulations is necessary since large systematic discrepancies are generally found between the model climate and the observed climate. Recent studies have cast doubt upon the common assumption of the bias being stationary when the climate changes. This led to the development of new methods, mostly based on linear sensitivity of the biases as a function of time or forcing (Kharin et al. 2012). However, recent studies uncovered more fundamental problems using both low-order systems (Vannitsem 2011) and climate models, showing that the biases may display complicated non-linear variations under climate change. This last analysis focused on biases derived from the equilibrium climate sensitivity, thereby ignoring the effect of the transient climate sensitivity. Based on the linear response theory, a general method of bias correction is therefore proposed that can be applied on any climate forcing scenario. The validity of the method is addressed using twin experiments with a climate model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM (Goosse et al., 2010). We evaluate to what extent the bias change is sensitive to the structure (frequency) of the applied forcing (here greenhouse gases) and whether the linear response theory is valid for global and/or local variables. To answer these question we perform large-ensemble simulations using different 300-year scenarios of forced carbon-dioxide concentrations. Reality and simulations are assumed to differ by a model error emulated as a parametric error in the wind drag or in the radiative scheme. References [1] H. Goosse et al., 2010: Description of the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM version 1.2, Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 603-633. [2] S. Vannitsem, 2011: Bias correction and post-processing under climate change, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 18, 911-924. [3] V.V. Kharin, G. J. Boer, W. J. Merryfield, J. F. Scinocca, and W.-S. Lee, 2012: Statistical adjustment of decadal predictions in a changing
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Forsythe, N.; Fowler, H. J.; Blenkinsop, S.; Burton, A.; Kilsby, C. G.; Archer, D. R.; Harpham, C.; Hashmi, M. Z.
2014-09-01
Assessing local climate change impacts requires downscaling from Global Climate Model simulations. Here, a stochastic rainfall model (RainSim) combined with a rainfall conditioned weather generator (CRU WG) have been successfully applied in a semi-arid mountain climate, for part of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), for point stations at a daily time-step to explore climate change impacts. Validation of the simulated time-series against observations (1961-1990) demonstrated the models' skill in reproducing climatological means of core variables with monthly RMSE of <2.0 mm for precipitation and ⩽0.4 °C for mean temperature and daily temperature range. This level of performance is impressive given complexity of climate processes operating in this mountainous context at the boundary between monsoonal and mid-latitude (westerly) weather systems. Of equal importance the model captures well the observed interannual variability as quantified by the first and last decile of 30-year climatic periods. Differences between a control (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) regional climate model (RCM) time-slice experiment were then used to provide change factors which could be applied within the rainfall and weather models to produce perturbed ‘future' weather time-series. These project year-round increases in precipitation (maximum seasonal mean change:+27%, annual mean change: +18%) with increased intensity in the wettest months (February, March, April) and year-round increases in mean temperature (annual mean +4.8 °C). Climatic constraints on the productivity of natural resource-dependent systems were also assessed using relevant indices from the European Climate Assessment (ECA) and indicate potential future risk to water resources and local agriculture. However, the uniformity of projected temperature increases is in stark contrast to recent seasonally asymmetrical trends in observations, so an alternative scenario of extrapolated trends was also explored. We conclude that
180,000 years of climate change in Europe: avifaunal responses and vegetation implications.
Holm, Sandra Ravnsbæk; Svenning, Jens-Christian
2014-01-01
Providing an underutilized source of information for paleoenvironmental reconstructions, birds are rarely used to infer paleoenvironments despite their well-known ecology and extensive Quaternary fossil record. Here, we use the avian fossil record to investigate how Western Palearctic bird assemblages and species ranges have changed across the latter part of the Pleistocene, with focus on the links to climate and the implications for vegetation structure. As a key issue we address the full-glacial presence of trees in Europe north of the Mediterranean region, a widely debated issue with evidence for and against emerging from several research fields and data sources. We compiled and analyzed a database of bird fossil occurrences from archaeological sites throughout the Western Palearctic and spanning the Saalian-Eemian-Weichselian stages, i.e. 190,000-10,000 years BP. In general, cold and dry-adapted species dominated these late Middle Pleistocene and Late Pleistocene fossil assemblages, with clear shifts of northern species southwards during glacials, as well as northwards and westwards shifts of open-vegetation species from the south and east, respectively and downwards shifts of alpine species. A direct link to climate was clear in Northwestern Europe. However, in general, bird assemblages more strongly reflected vegetation changes, underscoring their usefulness for inferring the vegetation structure of past landscapes. Forest-adapted birds were found in continuous high proportions throughout the study period, providing support for the presence of trees north of the Alps, even during full-glacial stages. Furthermore, the results suggest forest-dominated but partially open Eemian landscapes in the Western Palearctic, including the Northwestern European subregion.
Climate Change and Collective Violence.
Levy, Barry S; Sidel, Victor W; Patz, Jonathan A
2017-03-20
Climate change is causing increases in temperature, changes in precipitation and extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and other environmental impacts. It is also causing or contributing to heat-related disorders, respiratory and allergic disorders, infectious diseases, malnutrition due to food insecurity, and mental health disorders. In addition, increasing evidence indicates that climate change is causally associated with collective violence, generally in combination with other causal factors. Increased temperatures and extremes of precipitation with their associated consequences, including resultant scarcity of cropland and other key environmental resources, are major pathways by which climate change leads to collective violence. Public health professionals can help prevent collective violence due to climate change (a) by supporting mitigation measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, (b) by promoting adaptation measures to address the consequences of climate change and to improve community resilience, and (c) by addressing underlying risk factors for collective violence, such as poverty and socioeconomic disparities.
Adapting agriculture to climate change.
Howden, S Mark; Soussana, Jean-François; Tubiello, Francesco N; Chhetri, Netra; Dunlop, Michael; Meinke, Holger
2007-12-11
The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of existing agricultural systems, often variations of existing climate risk management. We show that implementation of these options is likely to have substantial benefits under moderate climate change for some cropping systems. However, there are limits to their effectiveness under more severe climate changes. Hence, more systemic changes in resource allocation need to be considered, such as targeted diversification of production systems and livelihoods. We argue that achieving increased adaptation action will necessitate integration of climate change-related issues with other risk factors, such as climate variability and market risk, and with other policy domains, such as sustainable development. Dealing with the many barriers to effective adaptation will require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach covering a range of scales and issues, for example, from the understanding by farmers of change in risk profiles to the establishment of efficient markets that facilitate response strategies. Science, too, has to adapt. Multidisciplinary problems require multidisciplinary solutions, i.e., a focus on integrated rather than disciplinary science and a strengthening of the interface with decision makers. A crucial component of this approach is the implementation of adaptation assessment frameworks that are relevant, robust, and easily operated by all stakeholders, practitioners, policymakers, and scientists.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dawson, Vaille
2015-05-01
Climate change is one of the most significant science issues facing humanity; yet, teaching students about climate change is challenging: not only is it multidisciplinary, but also it is contentious and debated in political, social and media forums. Students need to be equipped with an understanding of climate change science to be able to participate in this discourse. The purpose of this study was to examine Western Australian high school students' understanding of climate change and the greenhouse effect, in order to identify their alternative conceptions about climate change science and provide a baseline for more effective teaching. A questionnaire designed to elicit students' understanding and alternative conceptions was completed by 438 Year 10 students (14-15 years old). A further 20 students were interviewed. Results showed that students know different features of both climate change and the greenhouse effect, however not necessarily all of them and the relationships between. Five categories of alternative conceptions were identified. The categories were (1) the greenhouse effect and the ozone layer; (2) types of greenhouse gases; (3) types of radiation; (4) weather and climate and (5) air pollution. These findings provide science educators a basis upon which to develop strategies and curriculum resources to improve their students' understanding and decision-making skills about the socioscientific issue, climate change.
Changing flood frequencies under opposing late Pleistocene eastern Mediterranean climates.
Ben Dor, Yoav; Armon, Moshe; Ahlborn, Marieke; Morin, Efrat; Erel, Yigal; Brauer, Achim; Schwab, Markus Julius; Tjallingii, Rik; Enzel, Yehouda
2018-05-31
Floods comprise a dominant hydroclimatic phenomenon in aridlands with significant implications for humans, infrastructure, and landscape evolution worldwide. The study of short-term hydroclimatic variability, such as floods, and its forecasting for episodes of changing climate therefore poses a dominant challenge for the scientific community, and predominantly relies on modeling. Testing the capabilities of climate models to properly describe past and forecast future short-term hydroclimatic phenomena such as floods requires verification against suitable geological archives. However, determining flood frequency during changing climate is rarely achieved, because modern and paleoflood records, especially in arid regions, are often too short or discontinuous. Thus, coeval independent climate reconstructions and paleoflood records are required to further understand the impact of climate change on flood generation. Dead Sea lake levels reflect the mean centennial-millennial hydrological budget in the eastern Mediterranean. In contrast, floods in the large watersheds draining directly into the Dead Sea, are linked to short-term synoptic circulation patterns reflecting hydroclimatic variability. These two very different records are combined in this study to resolve flood frequency during opposing mean climates. Two 700-year-long, seasonally-resolved flood time series constructed from late Pleistocene Dead Sea varved sediments, coeval with significant Dead Sea lake level variations are reported. These series demonstrate that episodes of rising lake levels are characterized by higher frequency of floods, shorter intervals between years of multiple floods, and asignificantly larger number of years that experienced multiple floods. In addition, floods cluster into intervals of intense flooding, characterized by 75% and 20% increased frequency above their respective background frequencies during rising and falling lake-levels, respectively. Mean centennial precipitation in
Online and classroom tools for Climate Change Education
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Samenow, J. P.; Scott, K.
2004-12-01
EPA's Office of Atmospheric Programs has developed unique tools for educating students about the science of global warming and on actions that help address the issue. These tools have been highly successful and used in hundreds of classrooms across the country. EPA's Global Warming Kids' Site features interactive web-based animations for educating children, grades 4-8, about climate change. The animations illustrate how human activities likely influence the climate system through processes such as the greenhouse effect and carbon and water cycles. The pages also contain interactive quizzes. See: http://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/kids/animations.html For advanced high school and college students, EPA is nearing completion on the development of interactive visualizations of the emissions and climate scenarios featured in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Third Assessment Report. These visualizations allow students to choose a scenario and see how emissions, the climate and the earth's surface change over time. The Global Warming Wheelcard Classroom Activity Kit is designed to help teachers of middle school students introduce the concept of human induced global warming in the context of how rates of energy usage can influence the increase or eventual slowing of climate change. The Climate Change, Wildlife, and Wildlands Toolkit for Teachers and Interpreters was produced in a partnership among three agencies - EPA, US Fish and Wildlife Service and the National Park Service (NPS). Both classroom teachers and outdoor interpreters find it useful in conveying information about climate change science and impacts to their students and visitors. The development of the toolkit led to a larger program between EPA and NPS that assists parks in inventorying their emissions, creating action plans, and talking to the public about what they are doing - a "lead by example" type program that the two agencies hope to replicate in other venues in the coming year.
Assessing climate change impacts on soil salinity development with proximal and satellite sensors
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
Changes in climate patterns have dramatically influenced some agricultural areas. Examples include the historic 5-year drought in California’s San Joaquin Valley (SJV) and the 20-year above average annual rainfall in the Red River Valley (RRV) of the Midwestern USA. Climate change may have impacted ...
Weather on Steroids: The Art of Climate Change Science.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Boudrias, M. A.; Gershunov, A.; Sizonenko, T.; Wiese, A.; Fox, H.
2017-12-01
There have been many different kinds of efforts to improve climate change literacy of diverse audiences in the past several years. The challenge has been to balance science content with audience-specific messaging that engages them in both rational and affective ways. In the San Diego Region, Climate Education Partners (CEP) has been working with business leaders, elected officials, tribal leaders, and other community leaders to develop a suite of programs and activities to enhance the channels of communication outside traditional settings. CEP has partnered with the La Jolla Historical Society and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in a unique exhibition of art inspired by climate science, a project blending science and art to communicate the science of climate change in a new way and engage audiences more effectively. Weather on Steroids: the Art of Climate Change Science explores the question of consequences, challenges, and opportunities that arise from the changing climate on our planet. The exhibition merges the artistic and scientific to create a visual dialogue about the vexing problem of climate change, explores how weather variability affects the day-to-day life of local communities, and investigates Southern California vulnerability to climate change. Science serves as the inspiration for the creative responses from visual artists, who merge subjective images with empirical observation to reveal how climate variations upset the planet's balance with extreme weather impacts. Both the scientists and artists created didactic pages to explain their perspectives and each pair worked closely to incorporate the information into the creative piece so that the connection of each of 11 art installations to the science that inspired them is clear. By illuminating the reality of climate change, Weather on Steroids aspires to proactively stimulate public dialogue about one of the most important issues of our time.
Determinants of climate change awareness level in upper Nyakach Division, Kisumu County, Kenya.
Ajuang, Chadwick O; Abuom, Paul O; Bosire, Esna K; Dida, Gabriel O; Anyona, Douglas N
2016-01-01
Improving the understanding of climate change awareness is one of the top priorities in climate change research. While the African continent is among the regions with the highest vulnerability to climate change, research on climate knowledge and awareness is lacking. Kenya is already grappling with the impacts of climate change, which are projected to increase in a non-linear and non-predictable manner. This study sought to determine climate change awareness levels among households residing in Upper Nyakach Division, Kisumu County, Kenya using common climate change markers viz heavy rainfall, floods, droughts and temperature. A cross-sectional survey design was adopted in which 384 household heads were selected as respondents from 11 sub-locations; all located within Upper Nyakach Division. A questionnaire was used to collect data. Most (90.9 %) respondents had observed changes in the overall climate. Awareness level of climate change varied significantly across the 11 sub-locations. To further gain insight unto which variables were the most significant determinant of climate change awareness in upper Nyakach division, Kisumu county, a Generalized Linear Model (GLM) with Poisson error distribution was built. The model indicated that sex of the household head, education level and age significantly influenced respondents' awareness to climate change markers. Most (87 %) households reported rising temperatures over the past 20 years. Over half (55.2 %) the respondents had observed declining rains, with significant differences being observed across age groups. Up to 75 % of the respondents reported increased droughts frequency over the last 20 years, with significant differences observed across gender. Most (86.7 %) respondents reported having observed changes in water sources with significant differences reported across age groups. The respondents reported an increased prevalence of malaria with significant differences being observed among the education levels
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Ledley, Tamara Shapiro; Gold, Anne U.; Niepold, Frank; McCaffrey, Mark
2014-01-01
In recent years, various climate change education efforts have been launched, including federally (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Science Foundation, etc.) and privately funded projects. In addition, climate literacy and energy literacy frameworks have been developed and…
Inadvertent Weather Modification in Urban Areas: Lessons for Global Climate Change.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Changnon, Stanley A.
1992-05-01
Large metropolitan areas in North America, home to 65% of the nation's population, have created major changes in their climates over the past 150 years. The rate and amount of the urban climate change approximate those being predicted globally using climate models. Knowledge of urban weather and climate modification holds lessons for the global climate change issue. First, adjustments to urban climate changes can provide guidance for adjusting to global change. A second lesson relates to the difficulty but underscores the necessity of providing scientifically credible proof of change within the noise of natural climatic variability. The evolution of understanding about how urban conditions influence weather reveals several unexpected outcomes, particularly relating to precipitation changes. These suggest that similar future surprises can be expected in a changed global climate, a third lesson. In-depth studies of how urban climate changes affected the hydrologic cycle, the regional economy, and human activities were difficult because of data problems, lack of impact methodology, and necessity for multi disciplinary investigations. Similar impact studies for global climate change will require diverse scientific talents and funding commitments adequate to measure the complexity of impacts and human adjustments. Understanding the processes whereby urban areas and other human activities have altered the atmosphere and changed clouds and precipitation regionally appears highly relevant to the global climate-change issue. Scientific and governmental policy development needs to recognize an old axiom that became evident in the studies of inadvertent urban and regional climate change and their behavioral implications: Think globally but act locally. Global climate change is an international issue, and the atmosphere must be treated globally. But the impacts and the will to act and adjust will occur regionally.
Climate Change: Science and Policy in the Arctic Climate Change: Science and Policy in the Arctic
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bigras, S. C.
2009-12-01
participation of indigenous peoples in the development and management process. The effective application of accumulated climate change knowledge requires development of a policy framework that can address cumulative effects and take into account various stakeholders, multi-jurisdictional regulations and interests, environmental impacts and other concerns specific to the Arctic. Fundamental to such a framework are responsible economic development, sustainable communities, the commitment to achieving consensus between parties, and the use of traditional knowledge. One way to facilitate collaborative policy making is to increase international co-operation between Northerners, indigenous peoples, scientists, politicians and policy makers. The International Polar Year (IPY) 2007-2008 proved a solid stepping-stone for multinational collaborations. Clear communication with politicians and policy-makers is challenging but essential, despite the lingering uncertainties in climate-change science. Public awareness helps considerably in getting messages to politicians, and it is therefore important that scientists and researchers share their results not only with colleagues but also with the general public.
Interactive Effects of Nitrogen and Climate Change on Biodiversity
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Porter, E. M.; Bowman, W. D.; Clark, C. M.; Compton, J. E.; Pardo, L. H.; Soong, J.
2011-12-01
Biodiversity has been described as the diversity of life on earth within species, between species and in ecosystems. Biodiversity contributes to regulating ecosystem services like climate, flood, disease, and water quality regulation. Biodiversity also supports and sustains ecosystem services that provide material goods like food, fiber, fuel, timber and water, and to non-material benefits like educational, recreational, spiritual, and aesthetic ecosystem services. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment estimated that the rate of biodiversity loss due to human activity in the last 50 years has been more rapid than at any other time in human history, and that many of the drivers of biodiversity loss are increasing. The strongest drivers of biodiversity loss include habitat loss, overexploitation, invasive species, climate change, and pollution, including pollution from reactive nitrogen. Of these stressors, climate change and reactive nitrogen from anthropogenic activities are causing some of the most rapid changes. Climate change is causing warming trends that result in consistent patterns of poleward and elevational range shifts of flora and fauna, causing changes in biodiversity. Warming has also resulted in changes in phenology, particularly the earlier onset of spring events, migration, and lengthening of the growing season, disrupting predator-prey and plant-pollinator interactions. In addition to warming, elevated carbon dioxide by itself can affect biodiversity by influencing plant growth, soil water, tissue stoichiometry, and trophic interactions. Nitrogen enrichment also impacts ecosystems and biodiversity in a variety of ways. Nitrogen enhances plant growth, but has been shown to favor invasive, fast-growing species over native species adapted to low nitrogen conditions. Although there have been a limited number of empirical studies on climate change and nitrogen interactions, inferences can be drawn from observed responses to each stressor by itself. For
Impact of climate changes during the last 5 million years on groundwater in basement aquifers.
Aquilina, Luc; Vergnaud-Ayraud, Virginie; Les Landes, Antoine Armandine; Pauwels, Hélène; Davy, Philippe; Pételet-Giraud, Emmanuelle; Labasque, Thierry; Roques, Clément; Chatton, Eliot; Bour, Olivier; Ben Maamar, Sarah; Dufresne, Alexis; Khaska, Mahmoud; Le Gal La Salle, Corinne; Barbecot, Florent
2015-09-22
Climate change is thought to have major effects on groundwater resources. There is however a limited knowledge of the impacts of past climate changes such as warm or glacial periods on groundwater although marine or glacial fluids may have circulated in basements during these periods. Geochemical investigations of groundwater at shallow depth (80-400 m) in the Armorican basement (western France) revealed three major phases of evolution: (1) Mio-Pliocene transgressions led to marine water introduction in the whole rock porosity through density and then diffusion processes, (2) intensive and rapid recharge after the glacial maximum down to several hundred meters depths, (3) a present-day regime of groundwater circulation limited to shallow depth. This work identifies important constraints regarding the mechanisms responsible for both marine and glacial fluid migrations and their preservation within a basement. It defines the first clear time scales of these processes and thus provides a unique case for understanding the effects of climate changes on hydrogeology in basements. It reveals that glacial water is supplied in significant amounts to deep aquifers even in permafrosted zones. It also emphasizes the vulnerability of modern groundwater hydrosystems to climate change as groundwater active aquifers is restricted to shallow depths.
Climate Change and Civil Violence
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
van der Vink, G.; Plancherel, Y.; Hennet, C.; Jones, K. D.; Abdullah, A.; Bradshaw, J.; Dee, S.; Deprez, A.; Pasenello, M.; Plaza-Jennings, E.; Roseman, D.; Sopher, P.; Sung, E.
2009-05-01
The manifestations of climate change can result in humanitarian impacts that reverse progress in poverty- reduction, create shortages of food and resources, lead to migration, and ultimately result in civil violence and conflict. Within the continent of Africa, we have found that environmentally-related variables are either the cause or the confounding factor for over 80% of the civil violence events during the last 10 years. Using predictive climate models and land-use data, we are able to identify populations in Africa that are likely to experience the most severe climate-related shocks. Through geospatial analysis, we are able to overlay these areas of high risk with assessments of both the local population's resiliency and the region's capacity to respond to climate shocks should they occur. The net result of the analysis is the identification of locations that are becoming particularly vulnerable to future civil violence events (vulnerability hotspots) as a result of the manifestations of climate change. For each population group, over 600 social, economic, political, and environmental indicators are integrated statistically to measures the vulnerability of African populations to environmental change. The indicator time-series are filtered for data availability and redundancy, broadly ordered into four categories (social, political, economic and environmental), standardized and normalized. Within each category, the dominant modes of variability are isolated by principal component analysis and the loadings of each component for each variable are used to devise composite index scores. Comparisons of past vulnerability with known environmentally-related conflicts demonstrates the role that such vulnerability hotspot maps can play in evaluating both the potential for, and the significance of, environmentally-related civil violence events. Furthermore, the analysis reveals the major variables that are responsible for the population's vulnerability and therefore
Herman-Mercer, Nicole M.; Matkin, Elli; Laituri, Melinda J.; Toohey, Ryan C; Massey, Maggie; Elder, Kelly; Schuster, Paul F.; Mutter, Edda A.
2016-01-01
Indigenous Arctic and Subarctic communities currently are facing a myriad of social and environmental changes. In response to these changes, studies concerning indigenous knowledge (IK) and climate change vulnerability, resiliency, and adaptation have increased dramatically in recent years. Risks to lives and livelihoods are often the focus of adaptation research; however, the cultural dimensions of climate change are equally important because cultural dimensions inform perceptions of risk. Furthermore, many Arctic and Subarctic IK climate change studies document observations of change and knowledge of the elders and older generations in a community, but few include the perspectives of the younger population. These observations by elders and older generations form a historical baseline record of weather and climate observations in these regions. However, many indigenous Arctic and Subarctic communities are composed of primarily younger residents. We focused on the differences in the cultural dimensions of climate change found between young adults and elders. We outlined the findings from interviews conducted in four indigenous communities in Subarctic Alaska. The findings revealed that (1) intergenerational observations of change were common among interview participants in all four communities, (2) older generations observed more overall change than younger generations interviewed by us, and (3) how change was perceived varied between generations. We defined “observations” as the specific examples of environmental and weather change that were described, whereas “perceptions” referred to the manner in which these observations of change were understood and contextualized by the interview participants. Understanding the differences in generational observations and perceptions of change are key issues in the development of climate change adaptation strategies.
Effects of climate change on plant population growth rate and community composition change.
Chang, Xiao-Yu; Chen, Bao-Ming; Liu, Gang; Zhou, Ting; Jia, Xiao-Rong; Peng, Shao-Lin
2015-01-01
The impacts of climate change on forest community composition are still not well known. Although directional trends in climate change and community composition change were reported in recent years, further quantitative analyses are urgently needed. Previous studies focused on measuring population growth rates in a single time period, neglecting the development of the populations. Here we aimed to compose a method for calculating the community composition change, and to testify the impacts of climate change on community composition change within a relatively short period (several decades) based on long-term monitoring data from two plots-Dinghushan Biosphere Reserve, China (DBR) and Barro Colorado Island, Panama (BCI)-that are located in tropical and subtropical regions. We proposed a relatively more concise index, Slnλ, which refers to an overall population growth rate based on the dominant species in a community. The results indicated that the population growth rate of a majority of populations has decreased over the past few decades. This decrease was mainly caused by population development. The increasing temperature had a positive effect on population growth rates and community change rates. Our results promote understanding and explaining variations in population growth rates and community composition rates, and are helpful to predict population dynamics and population responses to climate change.
Extreme climate events counteract the effects of climate and land-use changes in Alpine treelines
Barros, Ceres; Guéguen, Maya; Douzet, Rolland; Carboni, Marta; Boulangeat, Isabelle; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Münkemüller, Tamara; Thuiller, Wilfried
2017-01-01
Summary 1. Climate change and extreme events, such as drought, threaten ecosystems worldwide and in particular mountain ecosystems, where species often live at their environmental tolerance limits. In the European Alps, plant communities are also influenced by land-use abandonment leading to woody encroachment of subalpine and alpine grasslands. 2. In this study, we explored how the forest–grassland ecotone of Alpine treelines will respond to gradual climate warming, drought events and land-use change in terms of forest expansion rates, taxonomic diversity and functional composition. We used a previously validated dynamic vegetation model, FATE-HD, parameterised for plant communities in the Ecrins National Park in the French Alps. 3. Our results showed that intense drought counteracted the forest expansion at higher elevations driven by land-use abandonment and climate change, especially when combined with high drought frequency (occurring every 2 or less than 2 years). 4. Furthermore, intense and frequent drought accelerated the rates of taxonomic change and resulted in overall higher taxonomic spatial heterogeneity of the ecotone than would be expected under gradual climate and land-use changes only. 5. Synthesis and applications. The results from our model show that intense and frequent drought counteracts forest expansion driven by climate and land-use changes in the forest–grassland ecotone of Alpine treelines. We argue that land-use planning must consider the effects of extreme events, such as drought, as well as climate and land-use changes, since extreme events might interfere with trends predicted under gradual climate warming and agricultural abandonment. PMID:28670002
Impacts of climate change on paddy rice yield in a temperate climate.
Kim, Han-Yong; Ko, Jonghan; Kang, Suchel; Tenhunen, John
2013-02-01
The crop simulation model is a suitable tool for evaluating the potential impacts of climate change on crop production and on the environment. This study investigates the effects of climate change on paddy rice production in the temperate climate regions under the East Asian monsoon system using the CERES-Rice 4.0 crop simulation model. This model was first calibrated and validated for crop production under elevated CO2 and various temperature conditions. Data were obtained from experiments performed using a temperature gradient field chamber (TGFC) with a CO2 enrichment system installed at Chonnam National University in Gwangju, Korea in 2009 and 2010. Based on the empirical calibration and validation, the model was applied to deliver a simulated forecast of paddy rice production for the region, as well as for the other Japonica rice growing regions in East Asia, projecting for years 2050 and 2100. In these climate change projection simulations in Gwangju, Korea, the yield increases (+12.6 and + 22.0%) due to CO2 elevation were adjusted according to temperature increases showing variation dependent upon the cultivars, which resulted in significant yield decreases (-22.1% and -35.0%). The projected yields were determined to increase as latitude increases due to reduced temperature effects, showing the highest increase for any of the study locations (+24%) in Harbin, China. It appears that the potential negative impact on crop production may be mediated by appropriate cultivar selection and cultivation changes such as alteration of the planting date. Results reported in this study using the CERES-Rice 4.0 model demonstrate the promising potential for its further application in simulating the impacts of climate change on rice production from a local to a regional scale under the monsoon climate system. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Landscape Evolution, Fire, and Hydrology
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sheppard, B. S.; O Connor, C.; Falk, D. A.; Garfin, G. M.
2015-12-01
Landscape disturbances such as wildfire interact with climate variability to influence hydrologic regimes. We coupled landscape, fire, and hydrologic models and forced them using projected climate to demonstrate climate change impacts anticipated at Fort Huachuca in southeastern Arizona, USA. The US Department of Defense (DoD) recognizes climate change as a trend that has implications for military installations, national security and global instability. The goal of this DoD Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) project (RC-2232) is to provide decision making tools for military installations in the southwestern US to help them adapt to the operational realities associated with climate change. For this study we coupled the spatially explicit fire and vegetation dynamics model FireBGCv2 with the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment tool (AGWA) to evaluate landscape vegetation change, fire disturbance, and surface runoff in response to projected climate forcing. A projected climate stream for the years 2005-2055 was developed from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) 4 km statistical downscaling of the CanESM2 GCM using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. AGWA, an ArcGIS add-in tool, was used to automate the parameterization and execution of the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the KINematic runoff and EROSion2 (KINEROS2) models based on GIS layers. Landscape raster data generated by FireBGCv2 project an increase in fire and drought associated tree mortality and a decrease in vegetative basal area over the years of simulation. Preliminary results from SWAT modeling efforts show an increase to surface runoff during years following a fire, and for future winter rainy seasons. Initial results from KINEROS2 model runs show that peak runoff rates are expected to increase 10-100 fold as a result of intense rainfall falling on burned areas.
U.S. Navy Climate Change Roadmap
2010-04-01
Climate change is a national security challenge with strategic implications for the Navy. Climate change will lead to increased tensions in nations...with weak economies and political institutions. While climate change alone is not likely to lead to future conflict, it may be a contributing factor... Climate change is affecting, and will continue to affect, U.S. military installations and access to natural resources worldwide. It will affect the
Climate Change: From Science to Practice.
Wheeler, Nicola; Watts, Nick
2018-03-01
Climate change poses a significant threat to human health. Understanding how climate science can be translated into public health practice is an essential first step in enabling robust adaptation and improving resiliency to climate change. Recent research highlights the importance of iterative approaches to public health adaptation to climate change, enabling uncertainties of health impacts and barriers to adaptation to be accounted for. There are still significant barriers to adaptation, which are context-specific and thus present unique challenges to public health practice. The implementation of flexible adaptation approaches, using frameworks targeted for public health, is key to ensuring robust adaptation to climate change in public health practice. The BRACE framework provides an excellent approach for health adaptation to climate change. Combining this with the insights provided and by the adaptation pathways approach allows for more deliberate accounting of long-term uncertainties. The mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into public health practice and planning is important in facilitating this approach and overcoming the significant barriers to effective adaptation. Yet, the immediate and future limits to adaptation provide clear justification for urgent and accelerated efforts to mitigate climate change.
Climate Change 2014: Technical Summary
Field, Chrisopher B.; Barros, Vicente; Mach, Katherine; Mastrandrea, Michael; van Aalst, Maarten; Adger, Niel; Arent, Douglas J; Barnett, Jonathan; Betts, Richard; Bilir, Eren; Birkmann, Joern; Carmin, Joann; Chadee, Dave; Challinor, Andrew; Chaterjee, Monalisa; Cramer, Wolfgang; Davidson, Debra; Estrada, Yuka; Gatusso, Jean-Pierre; Hijioka, Yasuakai; Yohe, Gary; Hiza, Margaret; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Huang, He-Qing; Insarov, Gregory; Jones, Roger; Kovats, Sari; Lankao, Patricia Romero; Larsen, Joan Nymand; Losada, Iñigo; Marengo, José; McLean, Roger; Mearns, Linda; Mechler, Reinhard; Morton, John; Niang, Isabelle; Oki, Taikan; Olwoch, Jane Mukarugwiza; Opondo, Maggie; Poloczanska, Elvira; Pörtner, Hans -O.; Reisinger, Andy; Revi, Aromar; Schmidt, Daniela; Shaw, Rebecca; Solecki, William; Stone, Dáithí; Stone, John; Strzepek, Ken; Suarez, Avelino G.; Tschakert, Petra; Valentini, Riccardo; Vicuna, Sebastian; Villamizar, Alicia; Vincent, Katharine; Warren, Rachel; White, Leslie; Wilbanks, Thomas; Wong, Poh Poh
2014-01-01
Human interference with the climate system is occurring (WGI AR5 SPM Section D.3; WGI AR5 Sections 2.2, 6.3, 10.3 to 10.6, 10.9). Climate change poses risks for human and natural systems. The assessment of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability in the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (WGII AR5) evaluates how patterns of risks and potential benefits are shifting due to climate change. It considers how impacts and risks related to climate change can be reduced and managed through adaptation and mitigation. The report assesses needs, options, opportunities, constraints, resilience, limits, and other aspects associated with adaptation. It recognizes that risks of climate change will vary across regions and populations, through space and time, dependent on myriad factors including the extent of adaptation and mitigation. For the past 2 decades, IPCC’s Working Group II has developed assessments of climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. The WGII AR5 builds from the WGII contribution to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (WGII AR4), published in 2007, and the Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX), published in 2012. It follows the Working Group I contribution to the AR5. The WGII AR5 is presented in two parts (Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects, and Part B: Regional Aspects), reflecting the expanded literature basis and multidisciplinary approach, increased focus on societal impacts and responses, and continued regionally comprehensive coverage. [1.1 to 1.3] The number of scientific publications available for assessing climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability more than doubled between 2005 and 2010, with especially rapid increases in publications related to adaptation, allowing for a more robust assessment that supports policymaking (high confidence). The diversity of the topics and regions covered has similarly expanded, as has
Widespread climate change in the Himalayas and associated changes in local ecosystems.
Shrestha, Uttam Babu; Gautam, Shiva; Bawa, Kamaljit S
2012-01-01
Climate change in the Himalayas, a biodiversity hotspot, home of many sacred landscapes, and the source of eight largest rivers of Asia, is likely to impact the well-being of ~20% of humanity. However, despite the extraordinary environmental, cultural, and socio-economic importance of the Himalayas, and despite their rapidly increasing ecological degradation, not much is known about actual changes in the two most critical climatic variables: temperature and rainfall. Nor do we know how changes in these parameters might impact the ecosystems including vegetation phenology. By analyzing temperature and rainfall data, and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) values from remotely sensed imagery, we report significant changes in temperature, rainfall, and vegetation phenology across the Himalayas between 1982 and 2006. The average annual mean temperature during the 25 year period has increased by 1.5 °C with an average increase of 0.06 °C yr(-1). The average annual precipitation has increased by 163 mm or 6.52 mmyr(-1). Since changes in temperature and precipitation are immediately manifested as changes in phenology of local ecosystems, we examined phenological changes in all major ecoregions. The average start of the growing season (SOS) seems to have advanced by 4.7 days or 0.19 days yr(-1) and the length of growing season (LOS) appears to have advanced by 4.7 days or 0.19 days yr(-1), but there has been no change in the end of the growing season (EOS). There is considerable spatial and seasonal variation in changes in climate and phenological parameters. This is the first time that large scale climatic and phenological changes at the landscape level have been documented for the Himalayas. The rate of warming in the Himalayas is greater than the global average, confirming that the Himalayas are among the regions most vulnerable to climate change.
Feframing Climate Change for Environmental Health.
Weems, Caitlin; Subramaniam, Prithwi Raj
2017-04-01
Repeated warnings by the scientific community on the dire consequences of climate change through global warming to the ecology and sustenance of our planet have not been give appropriate attention by the U.S. public. Research has shown that climate change is responsible for catastrophic weather occurrences--such as floods, tornadoes, hurricanes, and heat waves--resulting in environmental and public health issues. The purpose of this report is to examine factors influencing public views on climate change. Theoretical and political perspectives are examined to unpack opinions held by the public in the U.S. on climate change. The Health Belief Model is used as an example to showcase the efficacy of an individual behavior change program in providing the synergy to understand climate change at the microlevel. The concept of reframing is discussed as a strategy to alter how the public views climate change.
The U.S. climate change action plan: Challenges and prospects
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Darmstadter, J.
1995-07-01
In 1992, the United States and 154 other countries signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, an international accord outlining measures for dealing with the threat of global warming. The following year, the Clinton administration released its Climate Change Action Plan for meeting the convention`s goal of stabilizing emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases at 1990 levels by the year 2000. Evaluation of the plan`s prospects for success must necessarily be speculative at this point, but already several of the assumptions on which the plan is predicated appear questionable. Moreover, even if the emissions stabilization goalmore » is met, the problem of global warming will persist. Therefore, the greatest contribution of the plan might be to raise consciousness about the need for sustained measures to address climate change and its attendant socioeconomic consequences.« less
Hybrid Zones: Windows on Climate Change
Larson, Erica L.; Harrison, Richard G.
2016-01-01
Defining the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on biodiversity and species distributions is currently a high priority. Niche models focus primarily on predicted changes in abiotic factors; however, species interactions and adaptive evolution will impact the ability of species to persist in the face of changing climate. Our review focuses on the use of hybrid zones to monitor species' responses to contemporary climate change. Monitoring hybrid zones provides insight into how range boundaries shift in response to climate change by illuminating the combined effects of species interactions and physiological sensitivity. At the same time, the semi-permeable nature of species boundaries allows us to document adaptive introgression of alleles associated with response to climate change. PMID:25982153
"no snow - no skiing excursion - consequences of climatic change?"
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Neunzig, Thilo
2014-05-01
Climatology and climate change have become central topics in Geography at our school. Because of that we set up a climatological station at our school. The data are an important basis to observe sudden changes in the weather. The present winter (2013/2014) shows the importance of climate change in Alzey / Germany. In winter many students think of the yearly skiing trip to Schwaz / Austria which is part of our school programme. Due to that the following questions arise: Will skiing still be possible if climate change accelerates? How are the skiing regions in the Alpes going to change? What will happen in about 20 years? How does artificial snow change the landscape and the skiing sport? Students have to be aware of the ecological damage of skiing trips. Each class has to come up with a concept how these trips can be as environmentally friendly as possible. - the trip is for a restricted number of students only (year 8 only) - a small skiing region is chosen which is not overcrowded - snow has to be guaranteed in the ski area to avoid the production of artificial snow (avoidance of high water consumption) - the bus arrives with a class and returns with the one that had been there before These are but a few ideas of students in order to make their trip as environmentally friendly as possible. What is missing is only what is going to happen in the future. What will be the effect of climate change for skiing regions in the secondary mountains? How is the average temperature for winter going to develop? Are there possibilities for summer tourism (e.g. hiking) instead of skiing in winter? The students are going to try to find answers to these questions which are going to be presented on a poster on the GIFT-Workshop in Vienna.
Communicating Climate and Ecosystem Change in the Arctic
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Soreide, N. N.; Overland, J. E.; Calder, J. A.; Rodionov, S.
2005-12-01
There is an explosion of interest in Northern Hemisphere climate, highlighting the importance of recent changes in the Arctic on mid-latitude climate and its impact on marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Traditional sea ice and tundra dominated arctic ecosystems are being reorganizing into warmer sub-arctic ecosystem types. Over the previous two years we have developed a comprehensive, near real-time arctic change detection protocol to track physical and biological changes for presentation on the web: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect. The effort provides a continuous update to the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) Report, released in November 2004. Principles for the protocol include an accessible narrative style, scientifically credible and objective indicators, notes multiple uses for the information, acknowledges uncertainties, and balances having too many indicators-which leads to information overload-and too few-which does not capture the complexity of the system. Screening criteria include concreteness, public awareness, being understandable, availability of historical time series, and sensitivity. The site provides sufficient information for an individual to make their own assessment regarding the balance of the evidence for tracking change. The product provides an overview, recent news, links to many arctic websites, and highlights climate, global impacts, land and marine ecosystems, and human consequences. Since its inception a year ago, it has averaged about 9000 hits an day on the web, and is a major information source as determined by Google search. The future direction focuses on understanding the causes for change. In spring 2005 we also presented a near real-time ecological and climatic surveillance website for the Bering Sea: www.beringclimate.noaa.gov. The site provides up-to-date information which ties northward shifts of fish, invertebrate and marine mammal populations to physical changes in the Arctic. This site is more technical than the
Projected climate change impacts in rainfall erosivity over Brazil.
Almagro, André; Oliveira, Paulo Tarso S; Nearing, Mark A; Hagemann, Stefan
2017-08-15
The impacts of climate change on soil erosion may bring serious economic, social and environmental problems. However, few studies have investigated these impacts on continental scales. Here we assessed the influence of climate change on rainfall erosivity across Brazil. We used observed rainfall data and downscaled climate model output based on Hadley Center Global Environment Model version 2 (HadGEM2-ES) and Model for Interdisciplinary Research On Climate version 5 (MIROC5), forced by Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5, to estimate and map rainfall erosivity and its projected changes across Brazil. We estimated mean values of 10,437 mm ha -1 h -1 year -1 for observed data (1980-2013) and 10,089 MJ mm ha -1 h -1 year -1 and 10,585 MJ mm ha -1 h -1 year -1 for HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5, respectively (1961-2005). Our analysis suggests that the most affected regions, with projected rainfall erosivity increases ranging up to 109% in the period 2007-2040, are northeastern and southern Brazil. Future decreases of as much as -71% in the 2071-2099 period were estimated for the southeastern, central and northwestern parts of the country. Our results provide an overview of rainfall erosivity in Brazil that may be useful for planning soil and water conservation, and for promoting water and food security.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S): A European Answer to Climate Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Thepaut, Jean-Noel
2016-04-01
Copernicus is the European Commission's flagship Earth observation programme that delivers freely accessible operational data and information services. ECMWF has been entrusted to operate two key parts of the Copernicus programme, which will bring a consistent standard to the measurement, forecasting and prediction of atmospheric conditions and climate change: • The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, CAMS, provides daily forecasts detailing the makeup composition of the atmosphere from the ground up to the stratosphere. • The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) (in development) will routinely monitor and analyse more than 20 essential climate variables to build a global picture of our climate, from the past to the future, as well as developing customisable climate indicators for relevant economic sectors, such as energy, water management, agriculture, insurance, health…. C3S has now taken off and a number of proof-of-concept sectoral climate services have been initiated. This paper will focus on the description and expected outcome of these proof-of-concept activities as well as the definition of a roadmap towards a fully operational European Climate Change Service.
Quantitative approaches in climate change ecology
Brown, Christopher J; Schoeman, David S; Sydeman, William J; Brander, Keith; Buckley, Lauren B; Burrows, Michael; Duarte, Carlos M; Moore, Pippa J; Pandolfi, John M; Poloczanska, Elvira; Venables, William; Richardson, Anthony J
2011-01-01
Contemporary impacts of anthropogenic climate change on ecosystems are increasingly being recognized. Documenting the extent of these impacts requires quantitative tools for analyses of ecological observations to distinguish climate impacts in noisy data and to understand interactions between climate variability and other drivers of change. To assist the development of reliable statistical approaches, we review the marine climate change literature and provide suggestions for quantitative approaches in climate change ecology. We compiled 267 peer-reviewed articles that examined relationships between climate change and marine ecological variables. Of the articles with time series data (n = 186), 75% used statistics to test for a dependency of ecological variables on climate variables. We identified several common weaknesses in statistical approaches, including marginalizing other important non-climate drivers of change, ignoring temporal and spatial autocorrelation, averaging across spatial patterns and not reporting key metrics. We provide a list of issues that need to be addressed to make inferences more defensible, including the consideration of (i) data limitations and the comparability of data sets; (ii) alternative mechanisms for change; (iii) appropriate response variables; (iv) a suitable model for the process under study; (v) temporal autocorrelation; (vi) spatial autocorrelation and patterns; and (vii) the reporting of rates of change. While the focus of our review was marine studies, these suggestions are equally applicable to terrestrial studies. Consideration of these suggestions will help advance global knowledge of climate impacts and understanding of the processes driving ecological change.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chambers, L. H.; Pippin, M. R.; Welch, S.; Spruill, K.; Matthews, M. J.; Person, C.
2010-12-01
The NASA Global Climate Change Education (GCCE) Project, initiated in 2008, seeks to: - improve the teaching and learning about global climate change in elementary and secondary schools, on college campuses, and through lifelong learning; - increase the number of people, particularly high school and undergraduate students, using NASA Earth observation data, Earth system models, and/or simulations to investigate and analyze global climate change issues; - increase the number of undergraduate students prepared for employment and/or to enter graduate school in technical fields relevant to global climate change. Through an annual solicitation, proposals are requested for projects that address these goals using a variety of approaches. These include using NASA Earth system data, interactive models and/or simulations; providing research experiences for undergraduate or community college students, or for pre- or in-service teachers; or creating long-term teacher professional development experiences. To date, 57 projects have been funded to pursue these goals (22 in 2008, 18 in 2009, and 17 in 2010), each for a 2-3 year period. The vast majority of awards address either teacher professional development, or use of data, models, or simulations; only 7 awards have been made for research experiences. NASA, with assistance from the Virginia Space Grant Consortium, is working to develop these awardees into a synergistic community that works together to maximize its impact. This paper will present examples of collaborations that are evolving within this developing community. It will also introduce the opportunities available in fiscal year 2011, when a change in emphasis is expected for the project as it moves within the NASA Office of Education Minority University Research and Education Program (MUREP).
The impact of 850,000 years of climate changes on the structure and dynamics of mammal food webs.
Nenzén, Hedvig K; Montoya, Daniel; Varela, Sara
2014-01-01
Most evidence of climate change impacts on food webs comes from modern studies and little is known about how ancient food webs have responded to climate changes in the past. Here, we integrate fossil evidence from 71 fossil sites, body-size relationships and actualism to reconstruct food webs for six large mammal communities that inhabited the Iberian Peninsula at different times during the Quaternary. We quantify the long-term dynamics of these food webs and study how their structure changed across the Quaternary, a period for which fossil data and climate changes are well known. Extinction, immigration and turnover rates were correlated with climate changes in the last 850 kyr. Yet, we find differences in the dynamics and structural properties of Pleistocene versus Holocene mammal communities that are not associated with glacial-interglacial cycles. Although all Quaternary mammal food webs were highly nested and robust to secondary extinctions, general food web properties changed in the Holocene. These results highlight the ability of communities to re-organize with the arrival of phylogenetically similar species without major structural changes, and the impact of climate change and super-generalist species (humans) on Iberian Holocene mammal communities.
The Impact of 850,000 Years of Climate Changes on the Structure and Dynamics of Mammal Food Webs
Nenzén, Hedvig K.; Montoya, Daniel; Varela, Sara
2014-01-01
Most evidence of climate change impacts on food webs comes from modern studies and little is known about how ancient food webs have responded to climate changes in the past. Here, we integrate fossil evidence from 71 fossil sites, body-size relationships and actualism to reconstruct food webs for six large mammal communities that inhabited the Iberian Peninsula at different times during the Quaternary. We quantify the long-term dynamics of these food webs and study how their structure changed across the Quaternary, a period for which fossil data and climate changes are well known. Extinction, immigration and turnover rates were correlated with climate changes in the last 850 kyr. Yet, we find differences in the dynamics and structural properties of Pleistocene versus Holocene mammal communities that are not associated with glacial-interglacial cycles. Although all Quaternary mammal food webs were highly nested and robust to secondary extinctions, general food web properties changed in the Holocene. These results highlight the ability of communities to re-organize with the arrival of phylogenetically similar species without major structural changes, and the impact of climate change and super-generalist species (humans) on Iberian Holocene mammal communities. PMID:25207754
Lakes as sentinels of climate change
Adrian, Rita; O’Reilly, Catherine M.; Zagarese, Horacio; Baines, Stephen B.; Hessen, Dag O.; Keller, Wendel; Livingstone, David M.; Sommaruga, Ruben; Straile, Dietmar; Van Donk, Ellen; Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.; Winder, Monika
2010-01-01
While there is a general sense that lakes can act as sentinels of climate change, their efficacy has not been thoroughly analyzed. We identified the key response variables within a lake that act as indicators of the effects of climate change on both the lake and the catchment. These variables reflect a wide range of physical, chemical, and biological responses to climate. However, the efficacy of the different indicators is affected by regional response to climate change, characteristics of the catchment, and lake mixing regimes. Thus, particular indicators or combinations of indicators are more effective for different lake types and geographic regions. The extraction of climate signals can be further complicated by the influence of other environmental changes, such as eutrophication or acidification, and the equivalent reverse phenomena, in addition to other land-use influences. In many cases, however, confounding factors can be addressed through analytical tools such as detrending or filtering. Lakes are effective sentinels for climate change because they are sensitive to climate, respond rapidly to change, and integrate information about changes in the catchment. PMID:20396409
Forest disturbances under climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Seidl, Rupert; Thom, Dominik; Kautz, Markus; Martin-Benito, Dario; Peltoniemi, Mikko; Vacchiano, Giorgio; Wild, Jan; Ascoli, Davide; Petr, Michal; Honkaniemi, Juha; Lexer, Manfred J.; Trotsiuk, Volodymyr; Mairota, Paola; Svoboda, Miroslav; Fabrika, Marek; Nagel, Thomas A.; Reyer, Christopher P. O.
2017-06-01
Forest disturbances are sensitive to climate. However, our understanding of disturbance dynamics in response to climatic changes remains incomplete, particularly regarding large-scale patterns, interaction effects and dampening feedbacks. Here we provide a global synthesis of climate change effects on important abiotic (fire, drought, wind, snow and ice) and biotic (insects and pathogens) disturbance agents. Warmer and drier conditions particularly facilitate fire, drought and insect disturbances, while warmer and wetter conditions increase disturbances from wind and pathogens. Widespread interactions between agents are likely to amplify disturbances, while indirect climate effects such as vegetation changes can dampen long-term disturbance sensitivities to climate. Future changes in disturbance are likely to be most pronounced in coniferous forests and the boreal biome. We conclude that both ecosystems and society should be prepared for an increasingly disturbed future of forests.
Forest disturbances under climate change
Seidl, Rupert; Thom, Dominik; Kautz, Markus; Martin-Benito, Dario; Peltoniemi, Mikko; Vacchiano, Giorgio; Wild, Jan; Ascoli, Davide; Petr, Michal; Honkaniemi, Juha; Lexer, Manfred J.; Trotsiuk, Volodymyr; Mairota, Paola; Svoboda, Miroslav; Fabrika, Marek; Nagel, Thomas A.; Reyer, Christopher P. O.
2017-01-01
Forest disturbances are sensitive to climate. However, our understanding of disturbance dynamics in response to climatic changes remains incomplete, particularly regarding large-scale patterns, interaction effects and dampening feedbacks. Here we provide a global synthesis of climate change effects on important abiotic (fire, drought, wind, snow and ice) and biotic (insects and pathogens) disturbance agents. Warmer and drier conditions particularly facilitate fire, drought and insect disturbances, while warmer and wetter conditions increase disturbances from wind and pathogens. Widespread interactions between agents are likely to amplify disturbances, while indirect climate effects such as vegetation changes can dampen long-term disturbance sensitivities to climate. Future changes in disturbance are likely to be most pronounced in coniferous forests and the boreal biome. We conclude that both ecosystems and society should be prepared for an increasingly disturbed future of forests. PMID:28861124
Regional Climate Change Hotspots over Africa
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Anber, U.
2009-04-01
Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI), is developed based on regional mean precipitation change, mean surface air temperature change, and change in precipitation and temperature interannual variability. The RCCI is a comparative index designed to identify the most responsive regions to climate change, or Hot- Spots. The RCCI is calculated for Seven land regions over North Africa and Arabian region from the latest set of climate change projections by 14 global climates for the A1B, A2 and B1 IPCC emission scenarios. The concept of climate change can be approaches from the viewpoint of vulnerability or from that of climate response. In the former case a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region for which potential climate change impacts on the environment or different activity sectors can be particularly pronounced. In the other case, a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region whose climate is especially responsive to global change. In particular, the characterization of climate change response-based Hot-Spot can provide key information to identify and investigate climate change Hot-Spots based on results from multi-model ensemble of climate change simulations performed by modeling groups from around the world as contributions to the Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) is defined based on four variables: change in regional mean surface air temperature relative to the global average temperature change ( or Regional Warming Amplification Factor, RWAF ), change in mean regional precipitation ( , of present day value ), change in regional surface air temperature interannual variability ( ,of present day value), change in regional precipitation interannual variability ( , of present day value ). In the definition of the RCCI it is important to include quantities other than mean change because often mean changes are not the only important factors for specific impacts. We thus also include inter annual
Assess Climate Change's Impact on Coastal Rivers using a Coupled Climate-Hydrology Model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Xue, Z. G.; Gochis, D.; Yu, W.; Zang, Z.; Sampson, K. M.; Keim, B. D.
2016-12-01
In this study we present a coupled climate-hydrological model reproducing the water cycle of three coastal river basins along the northern Gulf of Mexico for the past three decades (1985-2014). Model simulated climate condition, surface physics, and streamflow were well validated against in situ data and satellite-derived products, giving us the confidence that the newly developed WRF-Hydro model can be a robust tool for evaluating climate change's impact on hydrological regime. Trend analysis of model simulated monthly and annual time series indicates that local climate is getting hotter and dryer, specifically during the growing season. Wavelet analysis reveals that local evapotranspiration is strongly correlated with temperature, while soil moisture, water surplus, and streamflow are coupled with precipitation. In addition, local climate is closely correlated with large-scale climate dynamics such as AMO and ENSO. A possible change-point is detected around year 2004, after which, the monthly precipitation decreased by 14.2%, evapotranspiration increased by 2.9%, and water surplus decreased by 36.5%. The implication of the difference between the water surplus (runoff) calculated using the classic Thornthwaite method and river discharge estimated using streamflow records to the coastal environment is also discussed.
Using Satellites to Understand Climate and Climate Change
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Fetzer, Eric
2007-01-01
This viewgraph presentation reviews the measurement of climate with the use of satellites. The basic greenhouse effect, Ice-albedo feedback, climate models and observations, aerosol-cloud interactions, and the Antarctic are discussed, along with the human effect on climate change.
Climate Change, Climate Justice, and Environmental Health: Implications for the Nursing Profession.
Nicholas, Patrice K; Breakey, Suellen
2017-11-01
Climate change is an emerging challenge linked to negative outcomes for the environment and human health. Since the 1960s, there has been a growing recognition of the need to address climate change and the impact of greenhouse gas emissions implicated in the warming of our planet. There are also deleterious health outcomes linked to complex climate changes that are emerging in the 21st century. This article addresses the social justice issues associated with climate change and human health and discussion of climate justice. Discussion paper. A literature search of electronic databases was conducted for articles, texts, and documents related to climate change, climate justice, and human health. The literature suggests that those who contribute least to global warming are those who will disproportionately be affected by the negative health outcomes of climate change. The concept of climate justice and the role of the Mary Robinson Foundation-Climate Justice are discussed within a framework of nursing's professional responsibility and the importance of social justice for the world's people. The nursing profession must take a leadership role in engaging in policy and advocacy discussions in addressing the looming problems associated with climate change. Nursing organizations have adopted resolutions and engaged in leadership roles to address climate change at the local, regional, national, and global level. It is essential that nurses embrace concepts related to social justice and engage in the policy debate regarding the deleterious effects on human health related to global warming and climate change. Nursing's commitment to social justice offers an opportunity to offer significant global leadership in addressing the health implications related to climate change. Recognizing the negative impacts of climate change on well-being and the underlying socioeconomic reasons for their disproportionate and inequitable distribution can expand and optimize the profession's role
Integrating Climate Change Into Nursing Curricula.
McDermott-Levy, Ruth; Jackman-Murphy, Kathryn P; Leffers, Jeanne M; Jordan, Lisa
2018-03-28
Climate change is a significant threat to human health across the life cycle. Nurses play an important role in mitigation, adaptation, and resilience to climate change. The use of health care resources, air quality and extreme heat, mental health, and natural disasters are major content areas across undergraduate nursing curricula that influence or are influenced by climate change. Teaching strategies and resources are offered to prepare nursing students to address climate change and human health.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Hall, Dorothy K.
1989-01-01
Discusses recent changes in the Earth's climate. Summarizes reports on changes related to carbon dioxide, temperature, rain, sea level, and glaciers in polar areas. Describes the present effort to measure the changes. Lists 16 references. (YP)
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Dal, Burçkin; Alper, Umut; Özdem-Yilmaz, Yasemin; Öztürk, Nilay; Sönmez, Duygu
2015-01-01
Public awareness of the negative effects of climate change is vital since it leads to collective action for prevention and adaptation. However, investigations on to what extent people are aware of the climate change issue are rare in the literature. The present study reported the adaptation process of awareness to climate change questionnaire into…
Climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble.
Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Giorgi, Filippo
2012-01-10
We use a statistical metric of multi-dimensional climate change to quantify the emergence of global climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 climate model ensemble. Our hotspot metric extends previous work through the inclusion of extreme seasonal temperature and precipitation, which exert critical influence on climate change impacts. The results identify areas of the Amazon, the Sahel and tropical West Africa, Indonesia, and the Tibetan Plateau as persistent regional climate change hotspots throughout the 21 st century of the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 forcing pathways. In addition, areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, the Arctic, and Central America/western North America also emerge as prominent regional climate change hotspots in response to intermediate and high levels of forcing. Comparisons of different periods of the two forcing pathways suggest that the pattern of aggregate change is fairly robust to the level of global warming below approximately 2°C of global warming (relative to the late-20 th -century baseline), but not at the higher levels of global warming that occur in the late-21 st -century period of the RCP8.5 pathway, with areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Arctic exhibiting particular intensification of relative aggregate climate change in response to high levels of forcing. Although specific impacts will clearly be shaped by the interaction of climate change with human and biological vulnerabilities, our identification of climate change hotspots can help to inform mitigation and adaptation decisions by quantifying the rate, magnitude and causes of the aggregate climate response in different parts of the world.
Linking models of human behaviour and climate alters projected climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Beckage, Brian; Gross, Louis J.; Lacasse, Katherine; Carr, Eric; Metcalf, Sara S.; Winter, Jonathan M.; Howe, Peter D.; Fefferman, Nina; Franck, Travis; Zia, Asim; Kinzig, Ann; Hoffman, Forrest M.
2018-01-01
Although not considered in climate models, perceived risk stemming from extreme climate events may induce behavioural changes that alter greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we link the C-ROADS climate model to a social model of behavioural change to examine how interactions between perceived risk and emissions behaviour influence projected climate change. Our coupled climate and social model resulted in a global temperature change ranging from 3.4-6.2 °C by 2100 compared with 4.9 °C for the C-ROADS model alone, and led to behavioural uncertainty that was of a similar magnitude to physical uncertainty (2.8 °C versus 3.5 °C). Model components with the largest influence on temperature were the functional form of response to extreme events, interaction of perceived behavioural control with perceived social norms, and behaviours leading to sustained emissions reductions. Our results suggest that policies emphasizing the appropriate attribution of extreme events to climate change and infrastructural mitigation may reduce climate change the most.
Iterative management of heat early warning systems in a changing climate.
Hess, Jeremy J; Ebi, Kristie L
2016-10-01
Extreme heat is a leading weather-related cause of morbidity and mortality, with heat exposure becoming more widespread, frequent, and intense as climates change. The use of heat early warning and response systems (HEWSs) that integrate weather forecasts with risk assessment, communication, and reduction activities is increasingly widespread. HEWSs are frequently touted as an adaptation to climate change, but little attention has been paid to the question of how best to ensure effectiveness of HEWSs as climates change further. In this paper, we discuss findings showing that HEWSs satisfy the tenets of an intervention that facilitates adaptation, but climate change poses challenges infrequently addressed in heat action plans, particularly changes in the onset, duration, and intensity of dangerously warm temperatures, and changes over time in the relationships between temperature and health outcomes. Iterative management should be central to a HEWS, and iteration cycles should be of 5 years or less. Climate change adaptation and implementation science research frameworks can be used to identify HEWS modifications to improve their effectiveness as temperature continues to rise, incorporating scientific insights and new understanding of effective interventions. We conclude that, at a minimum, iterative management activities should involve planned reassessment at least every 5 years of hazard distribution, population-level vulnerability, and HEWS effectiveness. © 2016 New York Academy of Sciences.
Response of Groundwater Recharge to Potential Future Climate Change in the Grand River Watershed
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jyrkama, M. I.; Sykes, J. F.
2004-05-01
The Grand River watershed is situated in south-western Ontario, draining an area of nearly 7000 square kilometres into Lake Erie. Approximately eighty percent of the population in the watershed derive their drinking water from groundwater sources. Quantifying the recharge input to the groundwater system and the impact of climate variability due to climate change is, therefore, essential for ensuring the quantity and sustainability of the watershed's drinking water resources in the future. The primary goal of this study is to investigate the impact of potential future climate changes on groundwater recharge in the Grand River watershed. The physically based hydrologic model HELP3 is used in conjunction with GIS to simulate the past conditions and future changes in evapotranspiration, potential surface runoff, and groundwater recharge rates as a result of projected changes in the regions climate. The climate change projections are based on the general predictions reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001. Forty years of daily historical weather data are used as the reference condition. The impact of climate change on the hydrologic cycle over a forty year study period is modelled by perturbing the HELP3 model input parameters using predicted future changes in precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation. The changes in land use and vegetation cover over time were not considered in the study. The results of the study indicate that the overall simulated rate of groundwater recharge is predicted to increase in the watershed as a result of the projected future climate change. Warmer winter temperatures will reduce the extent and duration of ground frost and shift the springmelt from spring toward winter months, allowing more water to infiltrate into the ground. This results in decreased surface runoff, higher infiltration, and subsequently increased groundwater recharge. The predicted higher intensity and frequency of future
Integrated regional changes in arctic climate feedbacks: Implications for the global climate system
McGuire, A.D.; Chapin, F. S.; Walsh, J.E.; Wirth, C.; ,
2006-01-01
The Arctic is a key part of the global climate system because the net positive energy input to the tropics must ultimately be resolved through substantial energy losses in high-latitude regions. The Arctic influences the global climate system through both positive and negative feedbacks that involve physical, ecological, and human systems of the Arctic. The balance of evidence suggests that positive feedbacks to global warming will likely dominate in the Arctic during the next 50 to 100 years. However, the negative feedbacks associated with changing the freshwater balance of the Arctic Ocean might abruptly launch the planet into another glacial period on longer timescales. In light of uncertainties and the vulnerabilities of the climate system to responses in the Arctic, it is important that we improve our understanding of how integrated regional changes in the Arctic will likely influence the evolution of the global climate system. Copyright ?? 2006 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.
Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated Approach
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mearns, L.
2017-12-01
Uncertainty has been a major theme in research regarding climate change from virtually the very beginning. And appropriately characterizing and quantifying uncertainty has been an important aspect of this work. Initially, uncertainties were explored regarding the climate system and how it would react to future forcing. A concomitant area of concern was viewed in the future emissions and concentrations of important forcing agents such as greenhouse gases and aerosols. But, of course we know there are important uncertainties in all aspects of climate change research, not just that of the climate system and emissions. And as climate change research has become more important and of pragmatic concern as possible solutions to the climate change problem are addressed, exploring all the relevant uncertainties has become more relevant and urgent. More recently, over the past five years or so, uncertainties in impacts models, such as agricultural and hydrological models, have received much more attention, through programs such as AgMIP, and some research in this arena has indicated that the uncertainty in the impacts models can be as great or greater than that in the climate system. Still there remains other areas of uncertainty that remain underexplored and/or undervalued. This includes uncertainty in vulnerability and governance. Without more thoroughly exploring these last uncertainties, we likely will underestimate important uncertainties particularly regarding how different systems can successfully adapt to climate change . In this talk I will discuss these different uncertainties and how to combine them to give a complete picture of the total uncertainty individual systems are facing. And as part of this, I will discuss how the uncertainty can be successfully managed even if it is fairly large and deep. Part of my argument will be that large uncertainty is not the enemy, but rather false certainty is the true danger.
Climate change and environmental concentrations of POPs: A review
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Nadal, Martí, E-mail: marti.nadal@urv.cat; Marquès, Montse; Mari, Montse
In recent years, the climate change impact on the concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) has become a topic of notable concern. Changes in environmental conditions such as the increase of the average temperature, or the UV-B radiation, are likely to influence the fate and behavior of POPs, ultimately affecting human exposure. The state of the art of the impact of climate change on environmental concentrations of POPs, as well as on human health risks, is here reviewed. Research gaps are also identified, while future studies are suggested. Climate change and POPs are a hot issue, for which wide attentionmore » should be paid not only by scientists, but also and mainly by policy makers. Most studies reported in the scientific literature are focused on legacy POPs, mainly polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and pesticides. However, the number of investigations aimed at estimating the impact of climate change on the environmental levels of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) is scarce, despite of the fact that exposure to PAHs and photodegradation byproducts may result in adverse health effects. Furthermore, no data on emerging POPs are currently available in the scientific literature. In consequence, an intensification of studies to identify and mitigate the indirect effects of the climate change on POP fate is needed to minimize the human health impact. Furthermore, being this a global problem, interactions between climate change and POPs must be addressed from an international perspective.« less
Asplund, Therese
2016-07-01
While previous research into understandings of climate change has usually examined general public perceptions, this study offers an audience-specific departure point. This article analyses how Swedish farmers perceive climate change and how they jointly shape their understandings. The agricultural sector is of special interest because it both contributes to and is directly affected by climate change. Through focus group discussions with Swedish farmers, this study finds that (1) farmers relate to and understand climate change through their own experiences, (2) climate change is understood either as a natural process subject to little or no human influence or as anthropogenic and (3) various communication tools contribute to the formation of natural and anthropogenic climate change frames. The article ends by discussing frame resonance and frame clash in public understanding of climate change and by comparing potential similarities and differences in how various segments of the public make sense of climate change. © The Author(s) 2014.
Climate change adaptation in regulated water utilities
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vicuna, S.; Melo, O.; Harou, J. J.; Characklis, G. W.; Ricalde, I.
2017-12-01
Concern about climate change impacts on water supply systems has grown in recent years. However, there are still few examples of pro-active interventions (e.g. infrastructure investment or policy changes) meant to address plausible future changes. Deep uncertainty associated with climate impacts, future demands, and regulatory constraints might explain why utility planning in a range of contexts doesn't explicitly consider climate change scenarios and potential adaptive responses. Given the importance of water supplies for economic development and the cost and longevity of many water infrastructure investments, large urban water supply systems could suffer from lack of pro-active climate change adaptation. Water utilities need to balance the potential for high regret stranded assets on the one side, with insufficient supplies leading to potentially severe socio-economic, political and environmental failures on the other, and need to deal with a range of interests and constraints. This work presents initial findings from a project looking at how cities in Chile, the US and the UK are developing regulatory frameworks that incorporate utility planning under uncertainty. Considering for example the city of Santiago, Chile, recent studies have shown that although high scarcity cost scenarios are plausible, pre-emptive investment to guard from possible water supply failures is still remote and not accommodated by current planning practice. A first goal of the project is to compare and contrast regulatory approaches to utility risks considering climate change adaptation measures. Subsequently we plan to develop and propose a custom approach for the city of Santiago based on lessons learned from other contexts. The methodological approach combines institutional assessment of water supply regulatory frameworks with simulation-based decision-making under uncertainty approaches. Here we present initial work comparing the regulatory frameworks in Chile, UK and USA evaluating
Being Prepared for Climate Change: Checklists of Potential Climate Change Risks, from Step 3
The Being Prepared for Climate Change workbook is a guide for constructing a climate change adaptation plan based on identifying risks and their consequences. These checklists (from Step 3 of the workbook) help users identify risks.
Land degradation and climate change: building climate resilience in agriculture
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
Land degradation and climate change pose enormous risks to global food security. Land degradation increases the vulnerability of agroecological systems to climate change and reduces the effectiveness of adaptation options. Yet these interactions have largely been omitted from climate impact assessme...
Put a Frame on It: Contextualizing Climate Change for Museum Visitors
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Canning, Katharine
Public opinion polls continue to show that Americans are divided---particularly along political and ideological lines---on whether climate change is real and warrants immediate action. Those in the natural and social sciences have recognized that effective communication is key to closing the gap that exists between scientific and public understanding on this issue. A body of social science research on climate change communication has emerged within the last decade. This field has identified strategies for climate change communicators and educators, emphasizing the importance of framing climate change issues in ways that help it resonate with a wider range of public concerns and values in order to develop a shared belief regarding the necessity of action. Museum exhibits and programs on climate change that were developed within the last five years are likely to have benefitted from this body of work. This qualitative research seeks to examine and analyze the various ways museums in the United States are communicating about climate change related issues to the public. Three case studies of museum exhibits on climate change issues were examined. The scope and purpose of climate change communication in museums, the specific messages that museums are choosing to communicate, and how those messages are being framed for public audiences were explored through these case studies. The findings suggest that museums are considering their audience when framing messages about climate change and have used work from the climate change communication field to inform message development. In particular, museums are making climate change issues more relevant by emphasizing social, economic, and human health concerns, and are considering strategies to counteract fear-fatigue and empower visitors to take action.
Changing precipitation in western Europe, climate change or natural variability?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Aalbers, Emma; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart
2017-04-01
Multi-model RCM-GCM ensembles provide high resolution climate projections, valuable for among others climate impact assessment studies. While the application of multiple models (both GCMs and RCMs) provides a certain robustness with respect to model uncertainty, the interpretation of differences between ensemble members - the combined result of model uncertainty and natural variability of the climate system - is not straightforward. Natural variability is intrinsic to the climate system, and a potentially large source of uncertainty in climate change projections, especially for projections on the local to regional scale. To quantify the natural variability and get a robust estimate of the forced climate change response (given a certain model and forcing scenario), large ensembles of climate model simulations of the same model provide essential information. While for global climate models (GCMs) a number of such large single model ensembles exists and have been analyzed, for regional climate models (RCMs) the number and size of single model ensembles is limited, and the predictability of the forced climate response at the local to regional scale is still rather uncertain. We present a regional downscaling of a 16-member single model ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at a resolution of 0.11 degrees (˜12km), similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. This 16-member ensemble was generated by the GCM EC-EARTH, which was downscaled with the RCM RACMO for the period 1951-2100. This single model ensemble has been investigated in terms of the ensemble mean response (our estimate of the forced climate response), as well as the difference between the ensemble members, which measures natural variability. We focus on the response in seasonal mean and extreme precipitation (seasonal maxima and extremes with a return period up to 20 years) for the near to far future. For most precipitation indices we can reliably determine the climate change signal, given
Sustainability of winter tourism in a changing climate over Kashmir Himalaya.
Dar, Reyaz Ahmad; Rashid, Irfan; Romshoo, Shakil Ahmad; Marazi, Asif
2014-04-01
Mountain areas are sensitive to climate change. Implications of climate change can be seen in less snow, receding glaciers, increasing temperatures, and decreasing precipitation. Climate change is also a severe threat to snow-related winter sports such as skiing, snowboarding, and cross-country skiing. The change in climate will put further pressure on the sensitive environment of high mountains. Therefore, in this study, an attempt has been made to know the impact of climate change on the snow precipitation, water resources, and winter tourism in the two famous tourist resorts of the Kashmir Valley. Our findings show that winters are getting prolonged with little snow falls on account of climate change. The average minimum and maximum temperatures are showing statistically significant increasing trends for winter months. The precipitation is showing decreasing trends in both the regions. A considerable area in these regions remains under the snow and glacier cover throughout the year especially during the winter and spring seasons. However, time series analysis of LandSat MODIS images using Normalized Difference Snow Index shows a decreasing trend in snow cover in both the regions from past few years. Similarly, the stream discharge, comprising predominantly of snow- and glacier-melt, is showing a statistically significant declining trend despite the melting of these glaciers. The predicted futuristic trends of temperature from Predicting Regional Climates for Impact Studies regional climate model are showing an increase which may enhance snow-melting in the near future posing a serious threat to the sustainability of winter tourism in the region. Hence, it becomes essential to monitor the changes in temperature and snow cover depletion in these basins in order to evaluate their effect on the winter tourism and water resources in the region.
Effects of changing climate on European stream invertebrate communities: A long-term data analysis.
Jourdan, Jonas; O'Hara, Robert B; Bottarin, Roberta; Huttunen, Kaisa-Leena; Kuemmerlen, Mathias; Monteith, Don; Muotka, Timo; Ozoliņš, Dāvis; Paavola, Riku; Pilotto, Francesca; Springe, Gunta; Skuja, Agnija; Sundermann, Andrea; Tonkin, Jonathan D; Haase, Peter
2018-04-15
Long-term observations on riverine benthic invertebrate communities enable assessments of the potential impacts of global change on stream ecosystems. Besides increasing average temperatures, many studies predict greater temperature extremes and intense precipitation events as a consequence of climate change. In this study we examined long-term observation data (10-32years) of 26 streams and rivers from four ecoregions in the European Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) network, to investigate invertebrate community responses to changing climatic conditions. We used functional trait and multi-taxonomic analyses and combined examinations of general long-term changes in communities with detailed analyses of the impact of different climatic drivers (i.e., various temperature and precipitation variables) by focusing on the response of communities to climatic conditions of the previous year. Taxa and ecoregions differed substantially in their response to climate change conditions. We did not observe any trend of changes in total taxonomic richness or overall abundance over time or with increasing temperatures, which reflects a compensatory turnover in the composition of communities; sensitive Plecoptera decreased in response to warmer years and Ephemeroptera increased in northern regions. Invasive species increased with an increasing number of extreme days which also caused an apparent upstream community movement. The observed changes in functional feeding group diversity indicate that climate change may be associated with changes in trophic interactions within aquatic food webs. These findings highlight the vulnerability of riverine ecosystems to climate change and emphasize the need to further explore the interactive effects of climate change variables with other local stressors to develop appropriate conservation measures. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lottle, Lorna; Arheimer, Berit; Gyllensvärd, Frida; Dejong, Fokke; Ludwig, Fulco; Hutjes, Ronald; Martinez, Bernat
2017-04-01
Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) is still in the development phase and will combine observations of the climate system with the latest science to develop authoritative, quality-assured information about the past, current and future states of the climate and climate dependent sectors in Europe and worldwide. C3S will provide key indicators on climate change drivers and selected sectorial impacts. The aim of these indicators will be to support adaptation and mitigation. This presentation will show one service already operational as a proof-of-concept of this future climate service. The project "Service for Water Indicators in Climate Change Adaptation" (SWICCA) has developed a sectorial information service for water management. It offers readily available climate-impact data, for open access from the web-site http://swicca.climate.copernicus.eu/. The development is user-driven with the overall goal to speed up the workflow in climate-change adaptation of water management across Europe. The service is co-designed by consultant engineers and agencies in 15 case-studies spread out over the continent. SWICCA has an interactive user-interface, which shows maps and graphs, and facilitates data download in user-friendly formats. In total, more than 900 open dataset are given for various hydrometeorological (and a few socioeconomical) variables, model ensembles, resolutions, time-periods and RCPs. The service offers more than 40 precomputed climate impact indicators (CIIs) and transient time-series of 4 essential climate variables ECVs) with high spatial and temporal resolution. To facilitate both near future and far future assessments, SWICCA provides the indicators for different time ranges; normally, absolute values are given for a reference period (e.g. 1971-2000) and the expected future changes for different 30-year periods, such as early century (2011-2040), mid-century (2041-2070) and end-century (2071-2100). An ensemble of model results is always given to
Rapid shifts in plant distribution with recent climate change.
Kelly, Anne E; Goulden, Michael L
2008-08-19
A change in climate would be expected to shift plant distribution as species expand in newly favorable areas and decline in increasingly hostile locations. We compared surveys of plant cover that were made in 1977 and 2006-2007 along a 2,314-m elevation gradient in Southern California's Santa Rosa Mountains. Southern California's climate warmed at the surface, the precipitation variability increased, and the amount of snow decreased during the 30-year period preceding the second survey. We found that the average elevation of the dominant plant species rose by approximately 65 m between the surveys. This shift cannot be attributed to changes in air pollution or fire frequency and appears to be a consequence of changes in regional climate.
Climate change, wine, and conservation.
Hannah, Lee; Roehrdanz, Patrick R; Ikegami, Makihiko; Shepard, Anderson V; Shaw, M Rebecca; Tabor, Gary; Zhi, Lu; Marquet, Pablo A; Hijmans, Robert J
2013-04-23
Climate change is expected to impact ecosystems directly, such as through shifting climatic controls on species ranges, and indirectly, for example through changes in human land use that may result in habitat loss. Shifting patterns of agricultural production in response to climate change have received little attention as a potential impact pathway for ecosystems. Wine grape production provides a good test case for measuring indirect impacts mediated by changes in agriculture, because viticulture is sensitive to climate and is concentrated in Mediterranean climate regions that are global biodiversity hotspots. Here we demonstrate that, on a global scale, the impacts of climate change on viticultural suitability are substantial, leading to possible conservation conflicts in land use and freshwater ecosystems. Area suitable for viticulture decreases 25% to 73% in major wine producing regions by 2050 in the higher RCP 8.5 concentration pathway and 19% to 62% in the lower RCP 4.5. Climate change may cause establishment of vineyards at higher elevations that will increase impacts on upland ecosystems and may lead to conversion of natural vegetation as production shifts to higher latitudes in areas such as western North America. Attempts to maintain wine grape productivity and quality in the face of warming may be associated with increased water use for irrigation and to cool grapes through misting or sprinkling, creating potential for freshwater conservation impacts. Agricultural adaptation and conservation efforts are needed that anticipate these multiple possible indirect effects.
Climate change, wine, and conservation
Hannah, Lee; Roehrdanz, Patrick R.; Ikegami, Makihiko; Shepard, Anderson V.; Shaw, M. Rebecca; Tabor, Gary; Zhi, Lu; Marquet, Pablo A.; Hijmans, Robert J.
2013-01-01
Climate change is expected to impact ecosystems directly, such as through shifting climatic controls on species ranges, and indirectly, for example through changes in human land use that may result in habitat loss. Shifting patterns of agricultural production in response to climate change have received little attention as a potential impact pathway for ecosystems. Wine grape production provides a good test case for measuring indirect impacts mediated by changes in agriculture, because viticulture is sensitive to climate and is concentrated in Mediterranean climate regions that are global biodiversity hotspots. Here we demonstrate that, on a global scale, the impacts of climate change on viticultural suitability are substantial, leading to possible conservation conflicts in land use and freshwater ecosystems. Area suitable for viticulture decreases 25% to 73% in major wine producing regions by 2050 in the higher RCP 8.5 concentration pathway and 19% to 62% in the lower RCP 4.5. Climate change may cause establishment of vineyards at higher elevations that will increase impacts on upland ecosystems and may lead to conversion of natural vegetation as production shifts to higher latitudes in areas such as western North America. Attempts to maintain wine grape productivity and quality in the face of warming may be associated with increased water use for irrigation and to cool grapes through misting or sprinkling, creating potential for freshwater conservation impacts. Agricultural adaptation and conservation efforts are needed that anticipate these multiple possible indirect effects. PMID:23569231
Local variability mediates vulnerability of trout populations to land use and climate change
Penaluna, Brooke E.; Dunham, Jason B.; Railsback, Steve F.; Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri L.; Bilby, Robert E; Safeeq, Mohammad; Skaugset, Arne E.
2015-01-01
Land use and climate change occur simultaneously around the globe. Fully understanding their separate and combined effects requires a mechanistic understanding at the local scale where their effects are ultimately realized. Here we applied an individual-based model of fish population dynamics to evaluate the role of local stream variability in modifying responses of Coastal Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii) to scenarios simulating identical changes in temperature and stream flows linked to forest harvest, climate change, and their combined effects over six decades. We parameterized the model for four neighboring streams located in a forested headwater catchment in northwestern Oregon, USA with multi-year, daily measurements of stream temperature, flow, and turbidity (2007–2011), and field measurements of both instream habitat structure and three years of annual trout population estimates. Model simulations revealed that variability in habitat conditions among streams (depth, available habitat) mediated the effects of forest harvest and climate change. Net effects for most simulated trout responses were different from or less than the sum of their separate scenarios. In some cases, forest harvest countered the effects of climate change through increased summer flow. Climate change most strongly influenced trout (earlier fry emergence, reductions in biomass of older trout, increased biomass of young-of-year), but these changes did not consistently translate into reductions in biomass over time. Forest harvest, in contrast, produced fewer and less consistent responses in trout. Earlier fry emergence driven by climate change was the most consistent simulated response, whereas survival, growth, and biomass were inconsistent. Overall our findings indicate a host of local processes can strongly influence how populations respond to broad scale effects of land use and climate change.
Local Variability Mediates Vulnerability of Trout Populations to Land Use and Climate Change.
Penaluna, Brooke E; Dunham, Jason B; Railsback, Steve F; Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri L; Bilby, Robert E; Safeeq, Mohammad; Skaugset, Arne E
2015-01-01
Land use and climate change occur simultaneously around the globe. Fully understanding their separate and combined effects requires a mechanistic understanding at the local scale where their effects are ultimately realized. Here we applied an individual-based model of fish population dynamics to evaluate the role of local stream variability in modifying responses of Coastal Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii) to scenarios simulating identical changes in temperature and stream flows linked to forest harvest, climate change, and their combined effects over six decades. We parameterized the model for four neighboring streams located in a forested headwater catchment in northwestern Oregon, USA with multi-year, daily measurements of stream temperature, flow, and turbidity (2007-2011), and field measurements of both instream habitat structure and three years of annual trout population estimates. Model simulations revealed that variability in habitat conditions among streams (depth, available habitat) mediated the effects of forest harvest and climate change. Net effects for most simulated trout responses were different from or less than the sum of their separate scenarios. In some cases, forest harvest countered the effects of climate change through increased summer flow. Climate change most strongly influenced trout (earlier fry emergence, reductions in biomass of older trout, increased biomass of young-of-year), but these changes did not consistently translate into reductions in biomass over time. Forest harvest, in contrast, produced fewer and less consistent responses in trout. Earlier fry emergence driven by climate change was the most consistent simulated response, whereas survival, growth, and biomass were inconsistent. Overall our findings indicate a host of local processes can strongly influence how populations respond to broad scale effects of land use and climate change.
Spatial and temporal variation in climate change: A bird’s eye view
Fontaine, Joseph J.; Decker, Karie L.; Skagen, Susan K.; van Riper, Charles
2009-01-01
Recent changes in global climate have dramatically altered worldwide temperatures and the corresponding timing of seasonal climate conditions. Recognizing the degree to which species respond to changing climates is therefore an area of increasing conservation concern as species that are unable to respond face increased risk of extinction. Here we examine spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the rate of climate change across western North America and discuss the potential for conditions to arise that may limit the ability of western migratory birds to adapt to changing climates. Based on 52 years of climate data, we show that changes in temperature and precipitation differ significantly between spring migration habitats in the desert southwest and breeding habitats throughout western North America. Such differences may ultimately increase costs to individual birds and thereby threaten the long-term population viability of many species.
Impact of climate change on water resources in South Sikkim, India
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vishwakarma, C. A.; Pant, M.; Asthana, H.; Singh, P.; Rena, V.; Mukherjee, S.
2016-12-01
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that the global mean temperature has increased by 0.6 ± 0.2°C since 1861 and predicts an increase of 2 to 4° C over the next 100 years. The direct effect of climate change on groundwater resources depends on the variation in the volume and distribution of groundwater and its recharge. Ingty and Bawa (2012) have summarized the detailed observation of climate change and its impact on biodiversity and natural resources in the Lachen valley, Sikkim using weather-based indicator of climate change like lesser snowfall, shifts in seasonal timing, uneven rainfall, accelerated glacial melt, and drying of water sources. South Sikkim is the most drought-prone area of the state and this is worst hit district by climate change. In Sikkim, more than three-fourths people feel that the water resources are drying up and out of them 60.2% believe that there is less snow at present time rather than the past. The subsurface aquifers are mainly recharged by precipitation or through the interaction of surface water bodies like lakes, glaciers, streams and rivers. But due to the effect of climate change the rate of precipitation and snow cover melting, the water scarcity problem had started. According to Indian Meteorological Department (Namthang AWS, South Sikkim), the annual precipitation has decreased from 2533 mm to 1503 mm. Spring is the main source of water in South Sikkim and most of the spring have become seasonal or dried. The average spring discharge data in the year 2000 was 100.18 l/m and after ten years it decreased by 26.12 l/m. With the decrease in precipitation and spring discharge, the agriculture productivity also get affected and it affect the socio-economic condition of South district. This study looks into various factors impacting the discharge at springs highlighting the effect of climate change induced precipitation pattern and land cover dynamics using SLURP (Semi-distributed Land Use based Runoff
Interactions between above- and belowground organisms modified in climate change experiments
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stevnbak, Karen; Scherber, Christoph; Gladbach, David J.; Beier, Claus; Mikkelsen, Teis N.; Christensen, Søren
2012-11-01
Climate change has been shown to affect ecosystem process rates and community composition, with direct and indirect effects on belowground food webs. In particular, altered rates of herbivory under future climate can be expected to influence above-belowground interactions. Here, we use a multifactor, field-scale climate change experiment and independently manipulate atmospheric CO2 concentration, air and soil temperature and drought in all combinations since 2005. We show that changes in these factors modify the interaction between above- and belowground organisms. We use an insect herbivore to experimentally increase aboveground herbivory in grass phytometers exposed to all eight combinations of climate change factors for three years. Aboveground herbivory increased the abundance of belowground protozoans, microbial growth and microbial nitrogen availability. Increased CO2 modified these links through a reduction in herbivory and cascading effects through the soil food web. Interactions between CO2, drought and warming can affect belowground protozoan abundance. Our findings imply that climate change affects aboveground-belowground interactions through changes in nutrient availability.
Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation
The concept of refugia has long been studied from theoretical and paleontological perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change ref...
Advancing Climate Change and Impacts Science Through Climate Informatics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lenhardt, W.; Pouchard, L. C.; King, A. W.; Branstetter, M. L.; Kao, S.; Wang, D.
2010-12-01
This poster will outline the work to date on developing a climate informatics capability at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The central proposition of this effort is that the application of informatics and information science to the domain of climate change science is an essential means to bridge the realm of high performance computing (HPC) and domain science. The goal is to facilitate knowledge capture and the creation of new scientific insights. For example, a climate informatics capability will help with the understanding and use of model results in domain sciences that were not originally in the scope. From there, HPC can also benefit from feedback as the new approaches may lead to better parameterization in the models. In this poster we will summarize the challenges associated with climate change science that can benefit from the systematic application of informatics and we will highlight our work to date in creating the climate informatics capability to address these types of challenges. We have identified three areas that are particularly challenging in the context of climate change science: 1) integrating model and observational data across different spatial and temporal scales, 2) model linkages, i.e. climate models linked to other models such as hydrologic models, and 3) model diagnostics. Each of these has a methodological component and an informatics component. Our project under way at ORNL seeks to develop new approaches and tools in the context of linking climate change and water issues. We are basing our work on the following four use cases: 1) Evaluation/test of CCSM4 biases in hydrology (precipitation, soil water, runoff, river discharge) over the Rio Grande Basin. User: climate modeler. 2) Investigation of projected changes in hydrology of Rio Grande Basin using the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity Macroscale) Hydrologic Model. User: watershed hydrologist/modeler. 3) Impact of climate change on agricultural productivity of the Rio Grande
Tambo, Ernest; Duo-Quan, Wang; Zhou, Xiao-Nong
2016-10-01
China still depends on coal for more than 60% of its power despite big investments in the process of shifting to nuclear, solar and wind power renewable energy resources alignment with Paris climate change agreement (Paris CCA). Chinese government through the Communist Party Central Committee (CPCC) ascribes great importance and commitment to Paris CCA legacy and history landmark implementation at all levels. As the world's biggest carbon dioxide emitter, China has embarked on "SMART" pollution and climate changes programs and measures to reduce coal-fired power plants to less than 50% in the next five years include: new China model of energy policies commitment on CO2 and greenhouse gas emissions reductions to less than 20% non-fossil energy use by 2030 without undermining their economic growth, newly introduced electric vehicles transportation benefits, interactive and sustained air quality index (AQI) monitoring systems, decreasing reliance on fossil fuel economic activities, revision of energy price reforms and renewable energy to less energy efficient technologies development. Furthermore, ongoing CPCC improved environmental initiatives, implemented strict regulations and penalties on local companies and firms' pollution production management, massive infrastructures such as highways to reduce CO2 expansion of seven regional emissions trading markets and programs for CO2 emissions and other pollutants are being documented. Maximizing on the centralized nature of the China's government, implemented Chinese pollution, climate changes mitigation and adaptation initiatives, "SMART" strategies and credible measures are promising. A good and practical example is the interactive and dynamic website and database covering 367 Chinese cities and providing real time information on environmental and pollution emissions AQI. Also, water quality index (WQI), radiation and nuclear safety monitoring and management systems over time and space. These are ongoing Chinese
Milfont, Taciano L
2012-06-01
If the long-term goal of limiting warming to less than 2°C is to be achieved, rapid and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions are required. These reductions will demand political leadership and widespread public support for action on global warming and climate change. Public knowledge, level of concern, and perceived personal efficacy, in positively affecting these issues are key variables in understanding public support for mitigation action. Previous research has documented some contradictory associations between knowledge, personal efficacy, and concern about global warming and climate change, but these cross-sectional findings limit inferences about temporal stability and direction of influence. This study examines the relationships between these three variables over a one-year period and three waves with national data from New Zealand. Results showed a positive association between the variables, and the pattern of findings was stable and consistent across the three data points. More importantly, results indicate that concern mediates the influence of knowledge on personal efficacy. Knowing more about global warming and climate change increases overall concern about the risks of these issues, and this increased concern leads to greater perceived efficacy and responsibility to help solving them. Implications for risk communication are discussed. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.
High and Mid-Latitude Wetlands, Climate Change, and Carbon Storage
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Peteet, Dorothy
2000-01-01
Pollen and macrofossil stratigraphy from wetlands associated with AMS chronology provides a vegetational and climatic history over thousands of years. From these records we establish a record of climate change which can be compared with independent records of carbon accumulation rates in these same wetlands. In this way, inferences can be made concerning carbon storage during different climatic regimes. One focus of our research has been high-latitude regions such as Alaskan and Siberian tundra, from which we have paleorecords which span the last 10,000 years. We will present records from the Malaspina Glacier region, Alaska and the Pur-Taz region of Western Siberia. A second focus of our research is in mid-latitude eastern North America. We will present paleorecords from wetlands in Vermont, New York, and Virginia showing the relationship between carbon accumulation rates and climatic changes since the late Pleistocene.
Climate change: believing and seeing implies adapting.
Blennow, Kristina; Persson, Johannes; Tomé, Margarida; Hanewinkel, Marc
2012-01-01
Knowledge of factors that trigger human response to climate change is crucial for effective climate change policy communication. Climate change has been claimed to have low salience as a risk issue because it cannot be directly experienced. Still, personal factors such as strength of belief in local effects of climate change have been shown to correlate strongly with responses to climate change and there is a growing literature on the hypothesis that personal experience of climate change (and/or its effects) explains responses to climate change. Here we provide, using survey data from 845 private forest owners operating in a wide range of bio-climatic as well as economic-social-political structures in a latitudinal gradient across Europe, the first evidence that the personal strength of belief and perception of local effects of climate change, highly significantly explain human responses to climate change. A logistic regression model was fitted to the two variables, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.07 (SD ± 0.01) to 0.81 (SD ± 0.03) for self-reported adaptive measures taken. Adding socio-demographic variables improved the fit, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.022 (SD ± 0.008) to 0.91 (SD ± 0.02). We conclude that to explain and predict adaptation to climate change, the combination of personal experience and belief must be considered.
Climate-Induced Boreal Forest Change: Predictions versus Current Observations
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Soja, Amber J.; Tchebakova, Nadezda M.; French, Nancy H. F.; Flannigan, Michael D.; Shugart, Herman H.; Stocks, Brian J.; Sukhinin, Anatoly I.; Parfenova, E. I.; Chapin, F. Stuart, III; Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.
2007-01-01
For about three decades, there have been many predictions of the potential ecological response in boreal regions to the currently warmer conditions. In essence, a widespread, naturally occurring experiment has been conducted over time. In this paper, we describe previously modeled predictions of ecological change in boreal Alaska, Canada and Russia, and then we investigate potential evidence of current climate-induced change. For instance, ecological models have suggested that warming will induce the northern and upslope migration of the treeline and an alteration in the current mosaic structure of boreal forests. We present evidence of the migration of keystone ecosystems in the upland and lowland treeline of mountainous regions across southern Siberia. Ecological models have also predicted a moisture-stress-related dieback in white spruce trees in Alaska, and current investigations show that as temperatures increase, white spruce tree growth is declining. Additionally, it was suggested that increases in infestation and wildfire disturbance would be catalysts that precipitate the alteration of the current mosaic forest composition. In Siberia, five of the last seven years have resulted in extreme fire seasons, and extreme fire years have also been more frequent in both Alaska and Canada. In addition, Alaska has experienced extreme and geographically expansive multi-year outbreaks of the spruce beetle, which had been previously limited by the cold, moist environment. We suggest that there is substantial evidence throughout the circumboreal region to conclude that the biosphere within the boreal terrestrial environment has already responded to the transient effects of climate change. Additionally, temperature increases and warming-induced change are progressing faster than had been predicted in some regions, suggesting a potential non-linear rapid response to changes in climate, as opposed to the predicted slow linear response to climate change.
Misleading prioritizations from modelling range shifts under climate change
Sofaer, Helen R.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Flather, Curtis H.
2018-01-01
AimConservation planning requires the prioritization of a subset of taxa and geographical locations to focus monitoring and management efforts. Integration of the threats and opportunities posed by climate change often relies on predictions from species distribution models, particularly for assessments of vulnerability or invasion risk for multiple taxa. We evaluated whether species distribution models could reliably rank changes in species range size under climate and land use change.LocationConterminous U.S.A.Time period1977–2014.Major taxa studiedPasserine birds.MethodsWe estimated ensembles of species distribution models based on historical North American Breeding Bird Survey occurrences for 190 songbirds, and generated predictions to recent years given c. 35 years of observed land use and climate change. We evaluated model predictions using standard metrics of discrimination performance and a more detailed assessment of the ability of models to rank species vulnerability to climate change based on predicted range loss, range gain, and overall change in range size.ResultsSpecies distribution models yielded unreliable and misleading assessments of relative vulnerability to climate and land use change. Models could not accurately predict range expansion or contraction, and therefore failed to anticipate patterns of range change among species. These failures occurred despite excellent overall discrimination ability and transferability to the validation time period, which reflected strong performance at the majority of locations that were either always or never occupied by each species.Main conclusionsModels failed for the questions and at the locations of greatest interest to conservation and management. This highlights potential pitfalls of multi-taxa impact assessments under global change; in our case, models provided misleading rankings of the most impacted species, and spatial information about range changes was not credible. As modelling methods and
Climate change and climate variability: personal motivation for adaptation and mitigation
2011-01-01
Background Global climate change impacts on human and natural systems are predicted to be severe, far reaching, and to affect the most physically and economically vulnerable disproportionately. Society can respond to these threats through two strategies: mitigation and adaptation. Industry, commerce, and government play indispensable roles in these actions but so do individuals, if they are receptive to behavior change. We explored whether the health frame can be used as a context to motivate behavioral reductions of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation measures. Methods In 2008, we conducted a cross-sectional survey in the United States using random digit dialing. Personal relevance of climate change from health threats was explored with the Health Belief Model (HBM) as a conceptual frame and analyzed through logistic regressions and path analysis. Results Of 771 individuals surveyed, 81% (n = 622) acknowledged that climate change was occurring, and were aware of the associated ecologic and human health risks. Respondents reported reduced energy consumption if they believed climate change could affect their way of life (perceived susceptibility), Odds Ratio (OR) = 2.4 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.4 - 4.0), endanger their life (perceived severity), OR = 1.9 (95% CI: 1.1 - 3.1), or saw serious barriers to protecting themselves from climate change, OR = 2.1 (95% CI: 1.2 - 3.5). Perceived susceptibility had the strongest effect on reduced energy consumption, either directly or indirectly via perceived severity. Those that reported having the necessary information to prepare for climate change impacts were more likely to have an emergency kit OR = 2.1 (95% CI: 1.4 - 3.1) or plan, OR = 2.2 (95% CI: 1.5 -3.2) for their household, but also saw serious barriers to protecting themselves from climate change or climate variability, either by having an emergency kit OR = 1.6 (95% CI: 1.1 - 2.4) or an emergency plan OR = 1.5 (95%CI: 1.0 - 2.2). Conclusions Motivation for
Climate change and climate variability: personal motivation for adaptation and mitigation.
Semenza, Jan C; Ploubidis, George B; George, Linda A
2011-05-21
Global climate change impacts on human and natural systems are predicted to be severe, far reaching, and to affect the most physically and economically vulnerable disproportionately. Society can respond to these threats through two strategies: mitigation and adaptation. Industry, commerce, and government play indispensable roles in these actions but so do individuals, if they are receptive to behavior change. We explored whether the health frame can be used as a context to motivate behavioral reductions of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation measures. In 2008, we conducted a cross-sectional survey in the United States using random digit dialing. Personal relevance of climate change from health threats was explored with the Health Belief Model (HBM) as a conceptual frame and analyzed through logistic regressions and path analysis. Of 771 individuals surveyed, 81% (n = 622) acknowledged that climate change was occurring, and were aware of the associated ecologic and human health risks. Respondents reported reduced energy consumption if they believed climate change could affect their way of life (perceived susceptibility), Odds Ratio (OR) = 2.4 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.4-4.0), endanger their life (perceived severity), OR = 1.9 (95% CI: 1.1-3.1), or saw serious barriers to protecting themselves from climate change, OR = 2.1 (95% CI: 1.2-3.5). Perceived susceptibility had the strongest effect on reduced energy consumption, either directly or indirectly via perceived severity. Those that reported having the necessary information to prepare for climate change impacts were more likely to have an emergency kit OR = 2.1 (95% CI: 1.4-3.1) or plan, OR = 2.2 (95% CI: 1.5-3.2) for their household, but also saw serious barriers to protecting themselves from climate change or climate variability, either by having an emergency kit OR = 1.6 (95% CI: 1.1-2.4) or an emergency plan OR = 1.5 (95%CI: 1.0-2.2). Motivation for voluntary mitigation is mostly dependent on
Climate change and the Rocky Mountains: Chapter 20
Byrne, James M.; Fagre, Daniel B.; MacDonald, Ryan; Muhlfeld, Clint C.
2014-01-01
For at least half of the year, the Rocky Mountains are shrouded in snow that feeds a multitude of glaciers. Snow and ice eventually melt into rivers that have eroded deep valleys that contain rich aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Because the Rocky Mountains are the major divide on the continent, rainfall and melt water from glaciers and snowfields feed major river systems that run to the Pacific, Atlantic, and Arctic oceans. The Rockies truly are the water tower for much of North America, and part of the Alpine backbone of North and South America. For purposes of this chapter, we limit our discussion to the Rocky Mountains of the Canadian provinces of Alberta and British Columbia, and the U.S. states of Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, and Colorado. Similar to other mountain systems, the altitude of the Rocky Mountains condenses the weather, climate and ecosystems of thousands of kilometres of latitude into very short vertical distances. In one good day, a strong hiker can journey by foot from the mid-latitude climates of the great plains of North America to an arctic climate near the top of Rocky Mountain peaks. The steep climatic gradients of mountain terrain create some of the most diverse ecosystems in the world, but it is those rapid changes in microclimate and ecology that make mountains sensitive to climate change. The energy budget in mountains varies dramatically not only with elevation but with slope and aspect. A modest change in the slope of the terrain over short distances may radically change the solar radiation available in that location. Shaded or north facing slopes have very different microclimates than the same elevations in a sunlit location, or for a hill slope facing south. The complexities associated with the mountain terrain of the Rockies compound complexities of weather and climate to create diverse, amazing ecosystems. This chapter addresses the impacts of climate change on Rocky Mountain ecosystems in light of their complexities and
Detecting future performance of the reservoirs under the changing climate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Biglarbeigi, Pardis; Strong, W. Alan; Griffiths, Philip
2017-04-01
Climate change is expected to affect the hydrological cycle resulting in changes in rainfall patterns, seasonal variations as well as flooding and drought. Also, changes in the hydrologic regime of the rivers are another anticipated effects of climate change. This climatic variability put pressure on renewable water resources with its increase in some regions, decrease in the others and high uncertainties in every region. As a result of the pressure of climate change on water resources, the operation of reservoir and dams is expected to experience uncertainties in different aspects such as supplying water and controlling the flood. In this study, we model two hypothetical dams on different streamflows, based on the water needs of 20'000 and 100'000 people. UK, as a country that suffered from several flooding events during the past years, and Iran, as a country with severe water scarcity, are chosen as the nations under study. For this study, the hypothetical modeled dam is located on three streamflows in each nation. Then, the mass-balance model of the system is optimised over 25 years of historical data, considering two objectives: 1) Minimisation of the water deficit in different sectors (agricultural, domestic and industrial) and 2) Minimisation of the flooding around the reservoir catchment. The optimised policies are simulated into the model again under different climate change and demographic scenarios to obtain the Resilience, Reliability and Vulnerability (RRV indices) of the system. In order to gain this goal, two different set of scenarios are introduced; the first set is the scenarios introduced in IPCC assessment in its Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). The second set is introduced as a Monte Carlo simulation of demographic and temperature scenarios. Demographic scenarios are defined as the UN's estimation of population based on age, sex, fertility, mortality and migration rates with a 2-year frequency. Temperature scenarios, on the other
Biological response to climate change in the Arctic Ocean: The view from the past
Cronin, Thomas M.; Cronin, Matthew A.
2017-01-01
The Arctic Ocean is undergoing rapid climatic changes including higher ocean temperatures, reduced sea ice, glacier and Greenland Ice Sheet melting, greater marine productivity, and altered carbon cycling. Until recently, the relationship between climate and Arctic biological systems was poorly known, but this has changed substantially as advances in paleoclimatology, micropaleontology, vertebrate paleontology, and molecular genetics show that Arctic ecosystem history reflects global and regional climatic changes over all timescales and climate states (103–107 years). Arctic climatic extremes include 25°C hyperthermal periods during the Paleocene-Eocene (56–46 million years ago, Ma), Quaternary glacial periods when thick ice shelves and sea ice cover rendered the Arctic Ocean nearly uninhabitable, seasonally sea-ice-free interglacials and abrupt climate reversals. Climate-driven biological impacts included large changes in species diversity, primary productivity, species’ geographic range shifts into and out of the Arctic, community restructuring, and possible hybridization, but evidence is not sufficient to determine whether or when major episodes of extinction occurred.
America's Climate Choices: Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change (Invited)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liverman, D. M.; McConnell, M. C.; Raven, P.
2010-12-01
At the request of Congress, the National Academy of Sciences convened a series of coordinated activities to provide advice on actions and strategies that the nation can take to respond to climate change. As part of this suite of activities, this study examines information needs and recommends ways the federal government can better inform responses by enhancing climate change and greenhouse gas information and reporting systems and by improving climate communication and education. Demand for better information to support climate-related decisions has grown rapidly as people, organizations, and governments have moved ahead with plans and actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to the impacts of climate change. To meet this demand, good information systems and services are needed. Without such systems, decision makers cannot evaluate whether particular policies and actions are achieving their goals or should be modified. Although the many non-federal efforts to reduce emissions and/or adapt to future climate changes carry considerable potential to reduce risks related to climate change, there is currently no comprehensive way to assess the effectiveness of those efforts. In addition, the diverse climate change responses to date have resulted in a patchwork of regional, state, and local policies that has prompted many state and business leaders to call for the development of a more predictable and coherent policy environment at the federal level. This report demonstrates that the nation lacks comprehensive, robust, and credible information and reporting systems to inform climate choices and evaluate their effectiveness. This report also argues that decision makers can benefit from a systematic and iterative framework for responding to climate change, in which decisions and policies can be revised in light of new information and experience and that improved information and reporting systems allow for ongoing evaluation of responses to climate risks. The
Nevada Infrastructure for Climate Change Science, Education, and Outreach
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dana, G. L.; Piechota, T. C.; Lancaster, N.; Mensing, S. A.
2009-12-01
The Nevada system of Higher Education, including the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, the University of Nevada, Reno, the Desert Research Institute, and Nevada State College have begun a five year research and infrastructure building program, funded by the National Science Foundation Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (NSF EPSCoR) with the vision “to create a statewide interdisciplinary program and virtual climate change center that will stimulate transformative research, education, and outreach on the effects of regional climate change on ecosystem resources (especially water) and support use of this knowledge by policy makers and stakeholders.” Six major strategies are proposed: 1) Develop a capability to model climate change and its effects at a regional and sub-regional scales to evaluate different future scenarios and strategies (Climate Modeling Component) 2) Develop data collection, modeling, and visualization infrastructure to determine and analyze effects on ecosystems and disturbance regimes (Ecological Change Component) 3) Develop data collection, modeling, and visualization infrastructure to better quantify and model changes in water balance and resources under climate change (Water Resources Component) 4) Develop data collection and modeling infrastructure to assess effects on human systems, responses to institutional and societal aspects, and enhance policy making and outreach to communities and stakeholders (Policy, Decision-Making, and Outreach Component) 5) Develop a data portal and software to support interdisciplinary research via integration of data from observational networks and modeling (Cyberinfrastructure Component) and 6) Develop educational infrastructure to train students at all levels and provide public outreach in climate change issues (Education Component). As part of the new infrastructure, two observational transects will be established across Great Basin Ranges, one in southern Nevada in the Spring Mountains
Climate change portal established
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Showstack, Randy
2011-12-01
The World Bank has developed a Climate Change Knowledge Portal as a kind of “onestop shop” for climate-related information, data, and tools. The portal provides access to global, regional, and national data and reports with an aim to providing a resource for learning about climate information and increasing knowledge on climate change—related actions. For more information, see http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/.
Western water and climate change.
Dettinger, Michael; Udall, Bradley; Georgakakos, Aris
2015-12-01
The western United States is a region long defined by water challenges. Climate change adds to those historical challenges, but does not, for the most part, introduce entirely new challenges; rather climate change is likely to stress water supplies and resources already in many cases stretched to, or beyond, natural limits. Projections are for continued and, likely, increased warming trends across the region, with a near certainty of continuing changes in seasonality of snowmelt and streamflows, and a strong potential for attendant increases in evaporative demands. Projections of future precipitation are less conclusive, although likely the northern-most West will see precipitation increases while the southernmost West sees declines. However, most of the region lies in a broad area where some climate models project precipitation increases while others project declines, so that only increases in precipitation uncertainties can be projected with any confidence. Changes in annual and seasonal hydrographs are likely to challenge water managers, users, and attempts to protect or restore environmental flows, even where annual volumes change little. Other impacts from climate change (e.g., floods and water-quality changes) are poorly understood and will likely be location dependent. In this context, four iconic river basins offer glimpses into specific challenges that climate change may bring to the West. The Colorado River is a system in which overuse and growing demands are projected to be even more challenging than climate-change-induced flow reductions. The Rio Grande offers the best example of how climate-change-induced flow declines might sink a major system into permanent drought. The Klamath is currently projected to face the more benign precipitation future, but fisheries and irrigation management may face dire straits due to warming air temperatures, rising irrigation demands, and warming waters in a basin already hobbled by tensions between endangered fisheries
Potential Impacts of Future Climate Change on Regional Air Quality and Public Health over China
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hong, C.; Zhang, Q.; Zhang, Y.; He, K.
2017-12-01
Future climate change would affect public health through changing air quality. Climate extremes and poor weather conditions are likely to occur at a higher frequency in China under a changing climate, but the air pollution-related health impacts due to future climate change remain unclear. Here the potential impacts of future climate change on regional air quality and public health over China is projected using a coupling of climate, air quality and epidemiological models. We present the first assessment of China's future air quality in a changing climate under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario using the dynamical downscaling technique. In RCP4.5 scenario, we estimate that climate change from 2006-2010 to 2046-2050 is likely to adversely affect air quality covering more than 86% of population and 55% of land area in China, causing an average increase of 3% in O3 and PM2.5 concentrations, which are found to be associated with the warmer climate and the more stable atmosphere. Our estimate of air pollution-related mortality due to climate change in 2050 is 26,000 people per year in China. Of which, the PM2.5-related mortality is 18,700 people per year, and the O3-related mortality is 7,300 people per year. The climate-induced air pollution and health impacts vary spatially. The climate impacts are even more pronounced on the urban areas where is densely populated and polluted. 90% of the health loss is concentrated in 20% of land areas in China. We use a simple statistical analysis method to quantify the contributions of climate extremes and find more intense climate extremes play an important role in climate-induced air pollution-related health impacts. Our results indicate that global climate change will likely alter the level of pollutant management required to meet future air quality targets as well as the efforts to protect public health in China.
The economics of abrupt climate change.
Perrings, Charles
2003-09-15
The US National Research Council defines abrupt climate change as a change of state that is sufficiently rapid and sufficiently widespread in its effects that economies are unprepared or incapable of adapting. This may be too restrictive a definition, but abrupt climate change does have implications for the choice between the main response options: mitigation (which reduces the risks of climate change) and adaptation (which reduces the costs of climate change). The paper argues that by (i) increasing the costs of change and the potential growth of consumption, and (ii) reducing the time to change, abrupt climate change favours mitigation over adaptation. Furthermore, because the implications of change are fundamentally uncertain and potentially very high, it favours a precautionary approach in which mitigation buys time for learning. Adaptation-oriented decision tools, such as scenario planning, are inappropriate in these circumstances. Hence learning implies the use of probabilistic models that include socioeconomic feedbacks.
Global climate change and children's health.
Shea, Katherine M
2007-11-01
There is broad scientific consensus that Earth's climate is warming rapidly and at an accelerating rate. Human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels, are very likely (>90% probability) to be the main cause of this warming. Climate-sensitive changes in ecosystems are already being observed, and fundamental, potentially irreversible, ecological changes may occur in the coming decades. Conservative environmental estimates of the impact of climate changes that are already in process indicate that they will result in numerous health effects to children. The nature and extent of these changes will be greatly affected by actions taken or not taken now at the global level. Physicians have written on the projected effects of climate change on public health, but little has been written specifically on anticipated effects of climate change on children's health. Children represent a particularly vulnerable group that is likely to suffer disproportionately from both direct and indirect adverse health effects of climate change. Pediatric health care professionals should understand these threats, anticipate their effects on children's health, and participate as children's advocates for strong mitigation and adaptation strategies now. Any solutions that address climate change must be developed within the context of overall sustainability (the use of resources by the current generation to meet current needs while ensuring that future generations will be able to meet their needs). Pediatric health care professionals can be leaders in a move away from a traditional focus on disease prevention to a broad, integrated focus on sustainability as synonymous with health. This policy statement is supported by a technical report that examines in some depth the nature of the problem of climate change, likely effects on children's health as a result of climate change, and the critical importance of responding promptly and aggressively to reduce activities that are contributing to
Global Climate Change and Children's Health.
Ahdoot, Samantha; Pacheco, Susan E
2015-11-01
Rising global temperature is causing major physical, chemical, and ecological changes across the planet. There is wide consensus among scientific organizations and climatologists that these broad effects, known as climate change, are the result of contemporary human activity. Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and security. Children are uniquely vulnerable to these threats. The effects of climate change on child health include physical and psychological sequelae of weather disasters, increased heat stress, decreased air quality, altered disease patterns of some climate-sensitive infections, and food, water, and nutrient insecurity in vulnerable regions. Prompt implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies will protect children against worsening of the problem and its associated health effects. This technical report reviews the nature of climate change and its associated child health effects and supports the recommendations in the accompanying policy statement on climate change and children's health. Copyright © 2015 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.
Keeping the Hope: Seeing, Understanding, and Teaching Climate Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Warburton, J.; Bartholow, S.; Larson, A.
2016-12-01
Climate Change: Seeing, Understanding, and Teaching in Denali is a four-day immersive teacher professional development course held in Denali National Park, Alaska. Now in it's fifth year, this field-based course has been developed in partnership with three organizations, Alaska Geographic, the National Park Service, and the Arctic Research Consortium of the United States. The course aims to develop teachers' skills for integrating climate change content into their classrooms. Throughout the course, participants gain skills in communicating science, increase their climate literacy, and learn how to facilitate classroom discussions that move us all towards making a positive impact on the future of climate change. This presentation aims to share tangible best practices for linking researchers and teachers through a field course that not only delivers content but also navigates the challenges of bringing climate change content to the classrooms. We will share data on how participants overwhelmingly value the deep commitment this course has to linking their field experience to the classroom attributing to the role of a teacher-leader; an expert science teacher with first-hand field research experience in the polar regions.
Large-scale changes in community composition: determining land use and climate change signals.
Kampichler, Christian; van Turnhout, Chris A M; Devictor, Vincent; van der Jeugd, Henk P
2012-01-01
Human land use and climate change are regarded as the main driving forces of present-day and future species extinction. They may potentially lead to a profound reorganisation of the composition and structure of natural communities throughout the world. However, studies that explicitly investigate both forms of impact--land use and climate change--are uncommon. Here, we quantify community change of Dutch breeding bird communities over the past 25 years using time lag analysis. We evaluate the chronological sequence of the community temperature index (CTI) which reflects community response to temperature increase (increasing CTI indicates an increase in relative abundance of more southerly species), and the temporal trend of the community specialisation index (CSI) which reflects community response to land use change (declining CSI indicates an increase of generalist species). We show that the breeding bird fauna underwent distinct directional change accompanied by significant changes both in CTI and CSI which suggests a causal connection between climate and land use change and bird community change. The assemblages of particular breeding habitats neither changed at the same speed and nor were they equally affected by climate versus land use changes. In the rapidly changing farmland community, CTI and CSI both declined slightly. In contrast, CTI increased in the more slowly changing forest and heath communities, while CSI remained stable. Coastal assemblages experienced both an increase in CTI and a decline in CSI. Wetland birds experienced the fastest community change of all breeding habitat assemblages but neither CTI nor CSI showed a significant trend. Overall, our results suggest that the interaction between climate and land use changes differs between habitats, and that comparing trends in CSI and CTI may be useful in tracking the impact of each determinant.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zebisch, Marc; Schneiderbauer, Stefan; Petitta, Marcello
2015-04-01
In the last decade the scope of climate change science has broadened significantly. 15 years ago the focus was mainly on understanding climate change, providing climate change scenarios and giving ideas about potential climate change impacts. Today, adaptation to climate change has become an increasingly important field of politics and one role of science is to inform and consult this process. Therefore, climate change science is not anymore focusing on data driven approaches only (such as climate or climate impact models) but is progressively applying and relying on qualitative approaches including opinion and expertise acquired through interactive processes with local stakeholders and decision maker. Furthermore, climate change science is facing the challenge of normative questions, such us 'how important is a decrease of yield in a developed country where agriculture only represents 3% of the GDP and the supply with agricultural products is strongly linked to global markets and less depending on local production?'. In this talk we will present examples from various applied research and consultancy projects on climate change vulnerabilities including data driven methods (e.g. remote sensing and modelling) to semi-quantitative and qualitative assessment approaches. Furthermore, we will discuss bottlenecks, pitfalls and opportunities in transferring climate change science to policy and decision maker oriented climate services.
Angela Jardine; Jonathan Long
2014-01-01
Changes in climate can interact with other stressors to transform ecosystems and alter the services those ecosystems provide. This synopsis presents themes that run through the synthesis report regarding the impacts of a changing climate on the forests and waters of the synthesis area as well as long-term, broad-scale, science-based strategies to promote system...
Cool Science: Using Children's Art to Communicate Climate Change (Invited)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lustick, D. S.; Lohmeier, J.; Chen, R. F.
2013-12-01
Cool Science is a K-12 Climate Change Science Art Competition. Working with teachers, parents, and students, the project aims to identify outstanding works of art by students about climate change and display the art throughout public mass transit. Cool Science has three distinct goals: 1) provide a convenient means for art and science teachers to incorporate climate change into their curriculum, 2) support teacher/student learning about climate change science, and 3) foster informal learning about climate change among people riding mass transit. By efficiently connecting formal and informal learning with one project, Cool Science is an innovative project that expands the way we engage and evaluate students. Using children's artwork to communicate complex scientific issues such as climate change is a powerful learning experience for the artist, teacher, and audience. Last year, Cool Science received nearly 600 entries from students representing 36 teachers from 32 school districts. Six winning entries went on public display with one highlighted each month from January through June. In addition, there were 6 Runner Ups and 12 Honorable Mentions. For the winning students, it is an unforgettable experience to see a nine-foot version of their artwork traveling around the streets on the side of a bus!
Physiological plasticity increases resilience of ectothermic animals to climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Seebacher, Frank; White, Craig R.; Franklin, Craig E.
2015-01-01
Understanding how climate change affects natural populations remains one of the greatest challenges for ecology and management of natural resources. Animals can remodel their physiology to compensate for the effects of temperature variation, and this physiological plasticity, or acclimation, can confer resilience to climate change. The current lack of a comprehensive analysis of the capacity for physiological plasticity across taxonomic groups and geographic regions, however, constrains predictions of the impacts of climate change. Here, we assembled the largest database to date to establish the current state of knowledge of physiological plasticity in ectothermic animals. We show that acclimation decreases the sensitivity to temperature and climate change of freshwater and marine animals, but less so in terrestrial animals. Animals from more stable environments have greater capacity for acclimation, and there is a significant trend showing that the capacity for thermal acclimation increases with decreasing latitude. Despite the capacity for acclimation, climate change over the past 20 years has already resulted in increased physiological rates of up to 20%, and we predict further future increases under climate change. The generality of these predictions is limited, however, because much of the world is drastically undersampled in the literature, and these undersampled regions are the areas of greatest need for future research efforts.
Accuracy requirements. [for monitoring of climate changes
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Delgenio, Anthony
1993-01-01
Satellite and surface measurements, if they are to serve as a climate monitoring system, must be accurate enough to permit detection of changes of climate parameters on decadal time scales. The accuracy requirements are difficult to define a priori since they depend on unknown future changes of climate forcings and feedbacks. As a framework for evaluation of candidate Climsat instruments and orbits, we estimate the accuracies that would be needed to measure changes expected over two decades based on theoretical considerations including GCM simulations and on observational evidence in cases where data are available for rates of change. One major climate forcing known with reasonable accuracy is that caused by the anthropogenic homogeneously mixed greenhouse gases (CO2, CFC's, CH4 and N2O). Their net forcing since the industrial revolution began is about 2 W/sq m and it is presently increasing at a rate of about 1 W/sq m per 20 years. Thus for a competing forcing or feedback to be important, it needs to be of the order of 0.25 W/sq m or larger on this time scale. The significance of most climate feedbacks depends on their sensitivity to temperature change. Therefore we begin with an estimate of decadal temperature change. Presented are the transient temperature trends simulated by the GISS GCM when subjected to various scenarios of trace gas concentration increases. Scenario B, which represents the most plausible near-term emission rates and includes intermittent forcing by volcanic aerosols, yields a global mean surface air temperature increase Delta Ts = 0.7 degrees C over the time period 1995-2015. This is consistent with the IPCC projection of about 0.3 degrees C/decade global warming (IPCC, 1990). Several of our estimates below are based on this assumed rate of warming.
Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Thomas, Katherine
A report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine concludes it is now possible to estimate the influence of climate change on some types of extreme events. The science of extreme event attribution has advanced rapidly in recent years, giving new insight to the ways that human-caused climate change can influence the magnitude or frequency of some extreme weather events. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities. Confidence is strongest in attributing types of extreme events that are influenced by climatemore » change through a well-understood physical mechanism, such as, the more frequent heat waves that are closely connected to human-caused global temperature increases, the report finds. Confidence is lower for other types of events, such as hurricanes, whose relationship to climate change is more complex and less understood at present. For any extreme event, the results of attribution studies hinge on how questions about the event's causes are posed, and on the data, modeling approaches, and statistical tools chosen for the analysis.« less
Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers
Sofaer, Helen R.; Barsugli, Joseph J.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Talbert, Marian; Miller, Brian W.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.
2017-01-01
Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. The climatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive – such as means or extremes – can guide methodological decisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climate projections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM) performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecological models. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments on mean projected changes from several GCMs. Ecological systems sensitive to climatic extremes may benefit from what we term the ‘model space’ approach: a comparison of ecological projections based on simulated climate from historical and future time periods. This approach leverages the experimental framework used in climate modeling, in which historical climate simulations serve as controls for future projections. Moreover, it can capture projected changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes, rather than assuming that future means will determine future extremes. Given the recent emphasis on the ecological impacts of climatic extremes, the strategies we describe will be applicable across species and systems. We also highlight practical considerations for the selection of climate models and data products, emphasizing that the spatial resolution of the climate change signal is generally coarser than the grid cell size of downscaled climate model output. Our review illustrates how an understanding of how climate model outputs are derived and downscaled can improve the selection and application of climatic data used in ecological modeling.
Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers.
Sofaer, Helen R; Barsugli, Joseph J; Jarnevich, Catherine S; Abatzoglou, John T; Talbert, Marian K; Miller, Brian W; Morisette, Jeffrey T
2017-07-01
Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. The climatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive - such as means or extremes - can guide methodological decisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climate projections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM) performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecological models. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments on mean projected changes from several GCMs. Ecological systems sensitive to climatic extremes may benefit from what we term the 'model space' approach: a comparison of ecological projections based on simulated climate from historical and future time periods. This approach leverages the experimental framework used in climate modeling, in which historical climate simulations serve as controls for future projections. Moreover, it can capture projected changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes, rather than assuming that future means will determine future extremes. Given the recent emphasis on the ecological impacts of climatic extremes, the strategies we describe will be applicable across species and systems. We also highlight practical considerations for the selection of climate models and data products, emphasizing that the spatial resolution of the climate change signal is generally coarser than the grid cell size of downscaled climate model output. Our review illustrates how an understanding of how climate model outputs are derived and downscaled can improve the selection and application of climatic data used in ecological modeling. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Climate Change Community Outreach Initiative (CCCOI)--A Gulf of Mexico Education Partnership
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Walker, S. H.; Stone, D.; Schultz, T.; LeBlanc, T.; Miller-Way, T.; Estrada, P.
2012-12-01
This five-year, Gulf of Mexico regional collaborative is funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-Office of Education and represents a successful grant submitted by the FL Aquarium as a member of the Association of Zoos and Aquariums (AZA). This climate change effort focuses on enhanced content knowledge and the manner in which personal actions and behaviors contribute to sustainability and stewardship. Diverse audiences—represented by visitors at the informal centers listed above—have been and are involved in the following activities: social networking via responses to climate change surveys; an "ocean and climate change defender" computer game, specifically designed for this project; an average of 10 annual outreach events implemented by these facilities at community festivals; climate change lectures provided to family audiences; and professional development workshops for informal and formal educators. This presentation will provide opportunities and challenges encountered during the first two years of implementation. This regional effort is also aligned with both the Ocean Literacy: Essential Principles and the Climate Literacy: Essential Principles. Additional partners include: Normandeau Associates, Conservation Enterprises, Unlimited, and Mindclay Creative.
Linking models of human behaviour and climate alters projected climate change
Beckage, Brian; Gross, Louis J.; Lacasse, Katherine; ...
2018-01-01
Although not considered in climate models, perceived risk stemming from extreme climate events may induce behavioural changes that alter greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we link the C-ROADS climate model to a social model of behavioural change to examine how interactions between perceived risk and emissions behaviour influence projected climate change. Our coupled climate and social model resulted in a global temperature change ranging from 3.4–6.2 °C by 2100 compared with 4.9 °C for the C-ROADS model alone, and led to behavioural uncertainty that was of a similar magnitude to physical uncertainty (2.8 °C versus 3.5 °C). Model components with themore » largest influence on temperature were the functional form of response to extreme events, interaction of perceived behavioural control with perceived social norms, and behaviours leading to sustained emissions reductions. Lastly, our results suggest that policies emphasizing the appropriate attribution of extreme events to climate change and infrastructural mitigation may reduce climate change the most.« less
Linking models of human behaviour and climate alters projected climate change
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Beckage, Brian; Gross, Louis J.; Lacasse, Katherine
Although not considered in climate models, perceived risk stemming from extreme climate events may induce behavioural changes that alter greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we link the C-ROADS climate model to a social model of behavioural change to examine how interactions between perceived risk and emissions behaviour influence projected climate change. Our coupled climate and social model resulted in a global temperature change ranging from 3.4–6.2 °C by 2100 compared with 4.9 °C for the C-ROADS model alone, and led to behavioural uncertainty that was of a similar magnitude to physical uncertainty (2.8 °C versus 3.5 °C). Model components with themore » largest influence on temperature were the functional form of response to extreme events, interaction of perceived behavioural control with perceived social norms, and behaviours leading to sustained emissions reductions. Lastly, our results suggest that policies emphasizing the appropriate attribution of extreme events to climate change and infrastructural mitigation may reduce climate change the most.« less
Current and Future Effects of Climate Change on Montane Amphibians
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Corn, S.
2002-05-01
Breeding phenology of amphibians in inextricably linked to weather, and change in the timing of breeding resulting from climate change may have consequences for the fitness of individuals and may affect persistence of amphibian populations. Amphibians in some north temperate locations have been observed to breed earlier in recent years in response to warmer spring temperatures, but this is not a universal phenomenon. In mountain populations, phenology is influenced by snow deposition as much as temperature. A trend towards earlier breeding, associated with increasing El Niño frequency, may be occurring in the Cascade Mountains in Oregon, but only at lower elevations. There is no evidence for changes in the dates of breeding activity by amphibians in the Rocky Mountains. Too few amphibian species have been studied, and those for which data exist have been studied for too brief a span of years to allow general conclusions about the effects of climate change. However, regardless of whether climate change has contributed to current amphibian declines, changes in temperature and the extent and duration of snow cover predicted for the next century will have increasingly severe consequences for the persistence of some species. Additional observations from amphibian populations, and spatial and temporal modeling of climate variables are needed to generate predictions of past and future breeding phenology, and the effects on amphibian population dynamics.
Littlefield, Caitlin E; McRae, Brad H; Michalak, Julia L; Lawler, Joshua J; Carroll, Carlos
2017-12-01
Increasing connectivity is an important strategy for facilitating species range shifts and maintaining biodiversity in the face of climate change. To date, however, few researchers have included future climate projections in efforts to prioritize areas for increasing connectivity. We identified key areas likely to facilitate climate-induced species' movement across western North America. Using historical climate data sets and future climate projections, we mapped potential species' movement routes that link current climate conditions to analogous climate conditions in the future (i.e., future climate analogs) with a novel moving-window analysis based on electrical circuit theory. In addition to tracing shifting climates, the approach accounted for landscape permeability and empirically derived species' dispersal capabilities. We compared connectivity maps generated with our climate-change-informed approach with maps of connectivity based solely on the degree of human modification of the landscape. Including future climate projections in connectivity models substantially shifted and constrained priority areas for movement to a smaller proportion of the landscape than when climate projections were not considered. Potential movement, measured as current flow, decreased in all ecoregions when climate projections were included, particularly when dispersal was limited, which made climate analogs inaccessible. Many areas emerged as important for connectivity only when climate change was modeled in 2 time steps rather than in a single time step. Our results illustrate that movement routes needed to track changing climatic conditions may differ from those that connect present-day landscapes. Incorporating future climate projections into connectivity modeling is an important step toward facilitating successful species movement and population persistence in a changing climate. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.
Climate change, aeroallergens, and pediatric allergic disease.
Sheffield, Perry E; Weinberger, Kate R; Kinney, Patrick L
2011-01-01
The degree to which aeroallergens are contributing to the global increase in pediatric allergic disease is incompletely understood. We review the evidence that links climate change to changes in aeroallergens such as pollen and outdoor mold concentrations and, subsequently, aeroallergen association with pediatric allergic disease. We specifically explore the evidence on both the exacerbation and the development of allergic disease in children related to outdoor pollen and mold concentrations. Pediatric allergic diseases include atopic dermatitis or eczema, allergic rhinitis or hay fever, and some types of asthma in children, typically defined as < 18 years of age. We discuss how the timing of aeroallergen exposure both in utero and in childhood could be associated with allergies. We conclude that the magnitude and type of health impacts due to climate change will depend on improved understanding of the relationship between climatic variables, multiple allergen factors, and allergic disease. Improved public-health strategies such as adequate humidity control, optimum air filtration and ventilation, and improved anticipatory public-health messaging will be critical to adaptation. © 2011 Mount Sinai School of Medicine.
Sustainable biochar to mitigate global climate change
Woolf, Dominic; Amonette, James E.; Street-Perrott, F. Alayne; Lehmann, Johannes; Joseph, Stephen
2010-01-01
Production of biochar (the carbon (C)-rich solid formed by pyrolysis of biomass) and its storage in soils have been suggested as a means of abating climate change by sequestering carbon, while simultaneously providing energy and increasing crop yields. Substantial uncertainties exist, however, regarding the impact, capacity and sustainability of biochar at the global level. In this paper we estimate the maximum sustainable technical potential of biochar to mitigate climate change. Annual net emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane and nitrous oxide could be reduced by a maximum of 1.8 Pg CO2-C equivalent (CO2-Ce) per year (12% of current anthropogenic CO2-Ce emissions; 1 Pg=1 Gt), and total net emissions over the course of a century by 130 Pg CO2-Ce, without endangering food security, habitat or soil conservation. Biochar has a larger climate-change mitigation potential than combustion of the same sustainably procured biomass for bioenergy, except when fertile soils are amended while coal is the fuel being offset. PMID:20975722
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shen, Mingxi; Chen, Jie; Zhuan, Meijia; Chen, Hua; Xu, Chong-Yu; Xiong, Lihua
2018-01-01
Uncertainty estimation of climate change impacts on hydrology has received much attention in the research community. The choice of a global climate model (GCM) is usually considered as the largest contributor to the uncertainty of climate change impacts. The temporal variation of GCM uncertainty needs to be investigated for making long-term decisions to deal with climate change. Accordingly, this study investigated the temporal variation (mainly long-term) of uncertainty related to the choice of a GCM in predicting climate change impacts on hydrology by using multi-GCMs over multiple continuous future periods. Specifically, twenty CMIP5 GCMs under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios were adapted to adequately represent this uncertainty envelope, fifty-one 30-year future periods moving from 2021 to 2100 with 1-year interval were produced to express the temporal variation. Future climatic and hydrological regimes over all future periods were compared to those in the reference period (1971-2000) using a set of metrics, including mean and extremes. The periodicity of climatic and hydrological changes and their uncertainty were analyzed using wavelet analysis, while the trend was analyzed using Mann-Kendall trend test and regression analysis. The results showed that both future climate change (precipitation and temperature) and hydrological response predicted by the twenty GCMs were highly uncertain, and the uncertainty increased significantly over time. For example, the change of mean annual precipitation increased from 1.4% in 2021-2050 to 6.5% in 2071-2100 for RCP4.5 in terms of the median value of multi-models, but the projected uncertainty reached 21.7% in 2021-2050 and 25.1% in 2071-2100 for RCP4.5. The uncertainty under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5) was much larger than that under a relatively low emission scenario (RCP4.5). Almost all climatic and hydrological regimes and their uncertainty did not show significant periodicity at the P = .05 significance
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Shepardson, Daniel P.; Niyogi, Dev; Roychoudhury, Anita; Hirsch, Andrew
2012-01-01
Today there is much interest in teaching secondary students about climate change. Much of this effort has focused directly on students' understanding of climate change. We hypothesize, however, that in order for students to understand climate change they must first understand climate as a system and how changes to this system due to both natural…
Climate Change and the Federal Budget
1998-08-01
in the area of global climate change and to review current federal spending programs and tax policies that relate to climate change . The memorandum...policymakers as they consider options to respond to international proposals for reducing the threat of climate change . In accordance with CBO’s mandate
Hydrologic refugia, plants, and climate change.
McLaughlin, Blair C; Ackerly, David D; Klos, P Zion; Natali, Jennifer; Dawson, Todd E; Thompson, Sally E
2017-08-01
Climate, physical landscapes, and biota interact to generate heterogeneous hydrologic conditions in space and over time, which are reflected in spatial patterns of species distributions. As these species distributions respond to rapid climate change, microrefugia may support local species persistence in the face of deteriorating climatic suitability. Recent focus on temperature as a determinant of microrefugia insufficiently accounts for the importance of hydrologic processes and changing water availability with changing climate. Where water scarcity is a major limitation now or under future climates, hydrologic microrefugia are likely to prove essential for species persistence, particularly for sessile species and plants. Zones of high relative water availability - mesic microenvironments - are generated by a wide array of hydrologic processes, and may be loosely coupled to climatic processes and therefore buffered from climate change. Here, we review the mechanisms that generate mesic microenvironments and their likely robustness in the face of climate change. We argue that mesic microenvironments will act as species-specific refugia only if the nature and space/time variability in water availability are compatible with the ecological requirements of a target species. We illustrate this argument with case studies drawn from California oak woodland ecosystems. We posit that identification of hydrologic refugia could form a cornerstone of climate-cognizant conservation strategies, but that this would require improved understanding of climate change effects on key hydrologic processes, including frequently cryptic processes such as groundwater flow. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Creating Effective Dialogue Around Climate Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kiehl, J. T.
2015-12-01
Communicating climate change to people from diverse sectors of society has proven to be difficult in the United States. It is widely recognized that difficulties arise from a number of sources, including: basic science understanding, the psychologically affect laden content surrounding climate change, and the diversity of value systems that exist in our society. I explore ways of working with the affect that arises around climate change and describe specific methods to work with the resistance often encountered when communicating this important issue. The techniques I describe are rooted in psychology and group process and provide means for creating more effective narratives to break through the barriers to communicating climate change science. Examples are given from personal experiences in presenting climate change to diverse groups.
Responding to the Consequences of Climate Change
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hildebrand, Peter H.
2011-01-01
The talk addresses the scientific consensus concerning climate change, and outlines the many paths that are open to mitigate climate change and its effects on human activities. Diverse aspects of the changing water cycle on Earth are used to illustrate the reality climate change. These include melting snowpack, glaciers, and sea ice; changes in runoff; rising sea level; moving ecosystems, an more. Human forcing of climate change is then explained, including: greenhouse gasses, atmospheric aerosols, and changes in land use. Natural forcing effects are briefly discussed, including volcanoes and changes in the solar cycle. Returning to Earth's water cycle, the effects of climate-induced changes in water resources is presented. Examples include wildfires, floods and droughts, changes in the production and availability of food, and human social reactions to these effects. The lk then passes to a discussion of common human reactions to these forecasts of climate change effects, with a summary of recent research on the subject, plus several recent historical examples of large-scale changes in human behavior that affect the climate and ecosystems. Finally, in the face for needed action on climate, the many options for mitigation of climate change and adaptation to its effects are presented, with examples of the ability to take affordable, and profitable action at most all levels, from the local, through national.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Lobell, D; Field, C; Cahill, K
2006-01-10
Most research on the agricultural impacts of climate change has focused on the major annual crops, yet perennial cropping systems are less adaptable and thus potentially more susceptible to damage. Improved assessments of yield responses to future climate are needed to prioritize adaptation strategies in the many regions where perennial crops are economically and culturally important. These impact assessments, in turn, must rely on climate and crop models that contain often poorly defined uncertainties. We evaluated the impact of climate change on six major perennial crops in California: wine grapes, almonds, table grapes, oranges, walnuts, and avocados. Outputs from multiplemore » climate models were used to evaluate climate uncertainty, while multiple statistical crop models, derived by resampling historical databases, were used to address crop response uncertainties. We find that, despite these uncertainties, climate change in California is very likely to put downward pressure on yields of almonds, walnuts, avocados, and table grapes by 2050. Without CO{sub 2} fertilization or adaptation measures, projected losses range from 0 to >40% depending on the crop and the trajectory of climate change. Climate change uncertainty generally had a larger impact on projections than crop model uncertainty, although the latter was substantial for several crops. Opportunities for expansion into cooler regions are identified, but this adaptation would require substantial investments and may be limited by non-climatic constraints. Given the long time scales for growth and production of orchards and vineyards ({approx}30 years), climate change should be an important factor in selecting perennial varieties and deciding whether and where perennials should be planted.« less
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kuleshov, Yuriy; Jones, David; Hendon, Harry; Charles, Andrew; Shelton, Kay; de Wit, Roald; Cottrill, Andrew; Nakaegawa, Toshiyuki; Atalifo, Terry; Prakash, Bipendra; Seuseu, Sunny; Kaniaha, Salesa
2013-04-01
Over the past few years, significant progress in developing climate science for the Pacific has been achieved through a number of research projects undertaken under the Australian government International Climate Change Adaptation Initiative (ICCAI). Climate change has major impact on Pacific Island Countries and advancement in understanding past, present and futures climate in the region is vital for island nation to develop adaptation strategies to their rapidly changing environment. This new science is now supporting new services for a wide range of stakeholders in the Pacific through the National Meteorological Agencies of the region. Seasonal climate prediction is particularly important for planning in agriculture, tourism and other weather-sensitive industries, with operational services provided by all National Meteorological Services in the region. The interaction between climate variability and climate change, for example during droughts or very warm seasons, means that much of the early impacts of climate change are being felt through seasonal variability. A means to reduce these impacts is to improve forecasts to support decision making. Historically, seasonal climate prediction has been developed based on statistical past relationship. Statistical methods relate meteorological variables (e.g. temperature and rainfall) to indices which describe large-scale environment (e.g. ENSO indices) using historical data. However, with observed climate change, statistical approaches based on historical data are getting less accurate and less reliable. Recognising the value of seasonal forecasts, we have used outputs of a dynamical model POAMA (Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia), to develop web-based information tools (http://poama.bom.gov.au/experimental/pasap/index.shtml) which are now used by climate services in 15 partner countries in the Pacific for preparing seasonal climate outlooks. Initial comparison conducted during 2012 has shown that the
Salewski, Volker; Siebenrock, Karl-Heinz; Hochachka, Wesley M; Woog, Friederike; Fiedler, Wolfgang
2014-01-01
Changes in morphology have been postulated as one of the responses of animals to global warming, with increasing ambient temperatures leading to decreasing body size. However, the results of previous studies are inconsistent. Problems related to the analyses of trends in body size may be related to the short-term nature of data sets, to the selection of surrogates for body size, to the appropriate models for data analyses, and to the interpretation as morphology may change in response to ecological drivers other than climate and irrespective of size. Using generalized additive models, we analysed trends in three morphological traits of 4529 specimens of eleven bird species collected between 1889 and 2010 in southern Germany and adjacent areas. Changes and trends in morphology over time were not consistent when all species and traits were considered. Six of the eleven species displayed a significant association of tarsus length with time but the direction of the association varied. Wing length decreased in the majority of species but there were few significant trends in wing pointedness. Few of the traits were significantly associated with mean ambient temperatures. We argue that although there are significant changes in morphology over time there is no consistent trend for decreasing body size and therefore no support for the hypothesis of decreasing body size because of climate change. Non-consistent trends of change in surrogates for size within species indicate that fluctuations are influenced by factors other than temperature, and that not all surrogates may represent size appropriately. Future analyses should carefully select measures of body size and consider alternative hypotheses for change.
Potential distribution of dengue fever under scenarios of climate change and economic development.
Aström, Christofer; Rocklöv, Joacim; Hales, Simon; Béguin, Andreas; Louis, Valerie; Sauerborn, Rainer
2012-12-01
Dengue fever is the most important viral vector-borne disease with ~50 million cases per year globally. Previous estimates of the potential effect of global climate change on the distribution of vector-borne disease have not incorporated the effect of socioeconomic factors, which may have biased the results. We describe an empirical model of the current geographic distribution of dengue, based on the independent effects of climate and gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc, a proxy for socioeconomic development). We use the model, along with scenario-based projections of future climate, economic development, and population, to estimate populations at risk of dengue in the year 2050. We find that both climate and GDPpc influence the distribution of dengue. If the global climate changes as projected but GDPpc remained constant, the population at risk of dengue is estimated to increase by about 0.28 billion in 2050. However, if both climate and GDPpc change as projected, we estimate a decrease of 0.12 billion in the population at risk of dengue in 2050. Empirically, the geographic distribution of dengue is strongly dependent on both climatic and socioeconomic variables. Under a scenario of constant GDPpc, global climate change results in a modest but important increase in the global population at risk of dengue. Under scenarios of high GDPpc, this adverse effect of climate change is counteracted by the beneficial effect of socioeconomic development.
Will climate change affect outbreak patterns of planthoppers in Bangladesh?
Ali, M P; Huang, Dingcheng; Nachman, G; Ahmed, Nur; Begum, Mahfuz Ara; Rabbi, M F
2014-01-01
Recently, planthoppers outbreaks have intensified across Asia resulting in heavy rice yield losses. The problem has been widely reported as being induced by insecticides while other factors such as global warming that could be potential drivers have been neglected. Here, we speculate that global warming may increase outbreak risk of brown planthopper (Nilaparvata lugens Stål.). We present data that demonstrate the relationship between climate variables (air temperature and precipitation) and the abundance of brown planthopper (BPH) during 1998-2007. Data show that BPH has become significantly more abundant in April over the 10-year period, but our data do not indicate that this is due to a change in climate, as no significant time trends in temperature and precipitation could be demonstrated. The abundance of BPH varied considerably between months within a year which is attributed to seasonal factors, including the availability of suitable host plants. On the other hand, the variation within months is attributed to fluctuations in monthly temperature and precipitation among years. The effects of these weather variables on BPH abundance were analyzed statistically by a general linear model. The statistical model shows that the expected effect of increasing temperatures is ambiguous and interacts with the amount of rainfall. According to the model, months or areas characterized by a climate that is either cold and dry or hot and wet are likely to experience higher levels of BPH due to climate change, whereas other combinations of temperature and rainfall may reduce the abundance of BPH. The analysis indicates that global warming may have contributed to the recent outbreaks of BPH in some rice growing areas of Asia, and that the severity of such outbreaks is likely to increase if climate change exaggerates. Our study highlights the need to consider climate change when designing strategies to manage planthoppers outbreaks.
Large-Scale Changes in Community Composition: Determining Land Use and Climate Change Signals
Kampichler, Christian; van Turnhout, Chris A. M.; Devictor, Vincent; van der Jeugd, Henk P.
2012-01-01
Human land use and climate change are regarded as the main driving forces of present-day and future species extinction. They may potentially lead to a profound reorganisation of the composition and structure of natural communities throughout the world. However, studies that explicitly investigate both forms of impact—land use and climate change—are uncommon. Here, we quantify community change of Dutch breeding bird communities over the past 25 years using time lag analysis. We evaluate the chronological sequence of the community temperature index (CTI) which reflects community response to temperature increase (increasing CTI indicates an increase in relative abundance of more southerly species), and the temporal trend of the community specialisation index (CSI) which reflects community response to land use change (declining CSI indicates an increase of generalist species). We show that the breeding bird fauna underwent distinct directional change accompanied by significant changes both in CTI and CSI which suggests a causal connection between climate and land use change and bird community change. The assemblages of particular breeding habitats neither changed at the same speed and nor were they equally affected by climate versus land use changes. In the rapidly changing farmland community, CTI and CSI both declined slightly. In contrast, CTI increased in the more slowly changing forest and heath communities, while CSI remained stable. Coastal assemblages experienced both an increase in CTI and a decline in CSI. Wetland birds experienced the fastest community change of all breeding habitat assemblages but neither CTI nor CSI showed a significant trend. Overall, our results suggest that the interaction between climate and land use changes differs between habitats, and that comparing trends in CSI and CTI may be useful in tracking the impact of each determinant. PMID:22523579
McInerney, Caitríona E; Maurice, Louise; Robertson, Anne L; Knight, Lee R F D; Arnscheidt, Jörg; Venditti, Chris; Dooley, James S G; Mathers, Thomas; Matthijs, Severine; Eriksson, Karin; Proudlove, Graham S; Hänfling, Bernd
2014-03-01
Global climate changes during the Cenozoic (65.5-0 Ma) caused major biological range shifts and extinctions. In northern Europe, for example, a pattern of few endemics and the dominance of wide-ranging species is thought to have been determined by the Pleistocene (2.59-0.01 Ma) glaciations. This study, in contrast, reveals an ancient subsurface fauna endemic to Britain and Ireland. Using a Bayesian phylogenetic approach, we found that two species of stygobitic invertebrates (genus Niphargus) have not only survived the entire Pleistocene in refugia but have persisted for at least 19.5 million years. Other Niphargus species form distinct cryptic taxa that diverged from their nearest continental relative between 5.6 and 1.0 Ma. The study also reveals an unusual biogeographical pattern in the Niphargus genus. It originated in north-west Europe approximately 87 Ma and underwent a gradual range expansion. Phylogenetic diversity and species age are highest in north-west Europe, suggesting resilience to extreme climate change and strongly contrasting the patterns seen in surface fauna. However, species diversity is highest in south-east Europe, indicating that once the genus spread to these areas (approximately 25 Ma), geomorphological and climatic conditions enabled much higher diversification. Our study highlights that groundwater ecosystems provide an important contribution to biodiversity and offers insight into the interactions between biological and climatic processes. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Climate change and food security.
Gregory, P J; Ingram, J S I; Brklacich, M
2005-11-29
Dynamic interactions between and within the biogeophysical and human environments lead to the production, processing, distribution, preparation and consumption of food, resulting in food systems that underpin food security. Food systems encompass food availability (production, distribution and exchange), food access (affordability, allocation and preference) and food utilization (nutritional and societal values and safety), so that food security is, therefore, diminished when food systems are stressed. Such stresses may be induced by a range of factors in addition to climate change and/or other agents of environmental change (e.g. conflict, HIV/AIDS) and may be particularly severe when these factors act in combination. Urbanization and globalization are causing rapid changes to food systems. Climate change may affect food systems in several ways ranging from direct effects on crop production (e.g. changes in rainfall leading to drought or flooding, or warmer or cooler temperatures leading to changes in the length of growing season), to changes in markets, food prices and supply chain infrastructure. The relative importance of climate change for food security differs between regions. For example, in southern Africa, climate is among the most frequently cited drivers of food insecurity because it acts both as an underlying, ongoing issue and as a short-lived shock. The low ability to cope with shocks and to mitigate long-term stresses means that coping strategies that might be available in other regions are unavailable or inappropriate. In other regions, though, such as parts of the Indo-Gangetic Plain of India, other drivers, such as labour issues and the availability and quality of ground water for irrigation, rank higher than the direct effects of climate change as factors influencing food security. Because of the multiple socio-economic and bio-physical factors affecting food systems and hence food security, the capacity to adapt food systems to reduce their
Climate change and food security
Gregory, P.J; Ingram, J.S.I; Brklacich, M
2005-01-01
Dynamic interactions between and within the biogeophysical and human environments lead to the production, processing, distribution, preparation and consumption of food, resulting in food systems that underpin food security. Food systems encompass food availability (production, distribution and exchange), food access (affordability, allocation and preference) and food utilization (nutritional and societal values and safety), so that food security is, therefore, diminished when food systems are stressed. Such stresses may be induced by a range of factors in addition to climate change and/or other agents of environmental change (e.g. conflict, HIV/AIDS) and may be particularly severe when these factors act in combination. Urbanization and globalization are causing rapid changes to food systems. Climate change may affect food systems in several ways ranging from direct effects on crop production (e.g. changes in rainfall leading to drought or flooding, or warmer or cooler temperatures leading to changes in the length of growing season), to changes in markets, food prices and supply chain infrastructure. The relative importance of climate change for food security differs between regions. For example, in southern Africa, climate is among the most frequently cited drivers of food insecurity because it acts both as an underlying, ongoing issue and as a short-lived shock. The low ability to cope with shocks and to mitigate long-term stresses means that coping strategies that might be available in other regions are unavailable or inappropriate. In other regions, though, such as parts of the Indo-Gangetic Plain of India, other drivers, such as labour issues and the availability and quality of ground water for irrigation, rank higher than the direct effects of climate change as factors influencing food security. Because of the multiple socio-economic and bio-physical factors affecting food systems and hence food security, the capacity to adapt food systems to reduce their
Abrupt climate-independent fire regime changes
Pausas, Juli G.; Keeley, Jon E.
2014-01-01
Wildfires have played a determining role in distribution, composition and structure of many ecosystems worldwide and climatic changes are widely considered to be a major driver of future fire regime changes. However, forecasting future climatic change induced impacts on fire regimes will require a clearer understanding of other drivers of abrupt fire regime changes. Here, we focus on evidence from different environmental and temporal settings of fire regimes changes that are not directly attributed to climatic changes. We review key cases of these abrupt fire regime changes at different spatial and temporal scales, including those directly driven (i) by fauna, (ii) by invasive plant species, and (iii) by socio-economic and policy changes. All these drivers might generate non-linear effects of landscape changes in fuel structure; that is, they generate fuel changes that can cross thresholds of landscape continuity, and thus drastically change fire activity. Although climatic changes might contribute to some of these changes, there are also many instances that are not primarily linked to climatic shifts. Understanding the mechanism driving fire regime changes should contribute to our ability to better assess future fire regimes.
Climate change and the past, present, and future of biotic interactions.
Blois, Jessica L; Zarnetske, Phoebe L; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C; Finnegan, Seth
2013-08-02
Biotic interactions drive key ecological and evolutionary processes and mediate ecosystem responses to climate change. The direction, frequency, and intensity of biotic interactions can in turn be altered by climate change. Understanding the complex interplay between climate and biotic interactions is thus essential for fully anticipating how ecosystems will respond to the fast rates of current warming, which are unprecedented since the end of the last glacial period. We highlight episodes of climate change that have disrupted ecosystems and trophic interactions over time scales ranging from years to millennia by changing species' relative abundances and geographic ranges, causing extinctions, and creating transient and novel communities dominated by generalist species and interactions. These patterns emerge repeatedly across disparate temporal and spatial scales, suggesting the possibility of similar underlying processes. Based on these findings, we identify knowledge gaps and fruitful areas for research that will further our understanding of the effects of climate change on ecosystems.
Ground Water and Climate Change
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Taylor, Richard G.; Scanlon, Bridget; Doell, Petra; Rodell, Matt; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Longuevergne, Laurent; Leblanc, Marc; Famiglietti, James S.; Edmunds, Mike;
2013-01-01
As the world's largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the impacts of climate on ground water through natural and human-induced processes as well as through groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system. Furthermore, we examine the possible opportunities and challenges of using and sustaining groundwater resources in climate adaptation strategies, and highlight the lack of groundwater observations, which, at present, limits our understanding of the dynamic relationship between ground water and climate.
Ground water and climate change
Taylor, Richard G.; Scanlon, Bridget R.; Döll, Petra; Rodell, Matt; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Longuevergne, Laurent; Leblanc, Marc; Famiglietti, James S.; Edmunds, Mike; Konikow, Leonard F.; Green, Timothy R.; Chen, Jianyao; Taniguchi, Makoto; Bierkens, Marc F.P.; MacDonald, Alan; Fan, Ying; Maxwell, Reed M.; Yechieli, Yossi; Gurdak, Jason J.; Allen, Diana M.; Shamsudduha, Mohammad; Hiscock, Kevin; Yeh, Pat J.-F.; Holman, Ian; Treidel, Holger
2012-01-01
As the world's largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the impacts of climate on ground water through natural and human-induced processes as well as through groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system. Furthermore, we examine the possible opportunities and challenges of using and sustaining groundwater resources in climate adaptation strategies, and highlight the lack of groundwater observations, which, at present, limits our understanding of the dynamic relationship between ground water and climate.
NASA's Earth Observing System: The Transition from Climate Monitoring to Climate Change Prediction
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
King, Michael D.; Herring, David D.
1998-01-01
Earth's 4.5 billion year history is a study in change. Natural geological forces have been rearranging the surface features and climatic conditions of our planet since its beginning. There is scientific evidence that some of these natural changes have not only led to mass extinctions of species (e.g., dinosaurs), but have also severely impacted human civilizations. For instance, there is evidence that a relatively sudden climate change caused a 300-year drought that contributed to the downfall of Akkadia, one of the most powerful empires in the Middle-East region around 2200 BC. More recently, the "little ice age" from 1200-1400 AD forced the Vikings to abandon Greenland when temperatures there dropped by about 1.5 C, rendering it too difficult to grow enough crops to sustain the population. Today, there is compelling scientific evidence that human activities have attained the magnitude of a geological force and are speeding up the rate of global change. For example, carbon dioxide levels have risen 30 percent since the industrial revolution and about 40 percent of the world's land surface has been transformed by humans. We don't understand the cause-and-effect relationships among Earth's land, ocean, and atmosphere well enough to predict what, if any, impacts these rapid changes will have on future climate conditions. We need to make many measurements all over the world, over a long period of time, in order to assemble the information needed to construct accurate computer models that will enable us to forecast climate change. In 1988, the Earth System Sciences Committee, sponsored by NASA, issued a report calling for an integrated, long-term strategy for measuring the vital signs of Earth's climate system. The report urged that the measurements must all be intimately coupled with focused process studies, they must facilitate development of Earth system models, and they must be stored in an information system that ensures open access to consistent, long-term data
Climate change and environmental concentrations of POPs: A review.
Nadal, Martí; Marquès, Montse; Mari, Montse; Domingo, José L
2015-11-01
In recent years, the climate change impact on the concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) has become a topic of notable concern. Changes in environmental conditions such as the increase of the average temperature, or the UV-B radiation, are likely to influence the fate and behavior of POPs, ultimately affecting human exposure. The state of the art of the impact of climate change on environmental concentrations of POPs, as well as on human health risks, is here reviewed. Research gaps are also identified, while future studies are suggested. Climate change and POPs are a hot issue, for which wide attention should be paid not only by scientists, but also and mainly by policy makers. Most studies reported in the scientific literature are focused on legacy POPs, mainly polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and pesticides. However, the number of investigations aimed at estimating the impact of climate change on the environmental levels of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) is scarce, despite of the fact that exposure to PAHs and photodegradation byproducts may result in adverse health effects. Furthermore, no data on emerging POPs are currently available in the scientific literature. In consequence, an intensification of studies to identify and mitigate the indirect effects of the climate change on POP fate is needed to minimize the human health impact. Furthermore, being this a global problem, interactions between climate change and POPs must be addressed from an international perspective. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Xu, Deke; Lu, Houyuan; Chu, Guoqiang; Wu, Naiqin; Shen, Caiming; Wang, Can; Mao, Limi
2014-01-01
Here we presented a high-resolution 5350-year pollen record from a maar annually laminated lake in East Asia (EA). Pollen record reflected the dynamics of vertical vegetation zones and temperature change. Spectral analysis on pollen percentages/concentrations of Pinus and Quercus, and a temperature proxy, revealed ~500-year quasi-periodic cold-warm fluctuations during the past 5350 years. This ~500-year cyclic climate change occurred in EA during the mid-late Holocene and even the last 150 years dominated by anthropogenic forcing. It was almost in phase with a ~500-year periodic change in solar activity and Greenland temperature change, suggesting that ~500-year small variations in solar output played a prominent role in the mid-late Holocene climate dynamics in EA, linked to high latitude climate system. Its last warm phase might terminate in the next several decades to enter another ~250-year cool phase, and thus this future centennial cyclic temperature minimum could partially slow down man-made global warming. PMID:24402348
Weighing the relative potential impacts of climate change and land-use change on an endangered bird.
Bancroft, Betsy A; Lawler, Joshua J; Schumaker, Nathan H
2016-07-01
Climate change and land-use change are projected to be the two greatest drivers of biodiversity loss over the coming century. Land-use change has resulted in extensive habitat loss for many species. Likewise, climate change has affected many species resulting in range shifts, changes in phenology, and altered interactions. We used a spatially explicit, individual-based model to explore the effects of land-use change and climate change on a population of the endangered Red-cockaded Woodpecker (RCW; Picoides borealis). We modeled the effects of land-use change using multiple scenarios representing different spatial arrangements of new training areas for troops across Fort Benning. We used projected climate-driven changes in habitat and changes in reproductive output to explore the potential effects of climate change. We summarized potential changes in habitat based on the output of the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, run for multiple climate change scenarios through the year 2100. We projected potential changes in reproduction based on an empirical relationship between spring precipitation and the mean number of successful fledglings produced per nest attempt. As modeled in our study, climate change had virtually no effect on the RCW population. Conversely, simulated effects of land-use change resulted in the loss of up to 28 breeding pairs by 2100. However, the simulated impacts of development depended on where the development occurred and could be completely avoided if the new training areas were placed in poor-quality habitat. Our results demonstrate the flexibility inherent in many systems that allows seemingly incompatible human land uses, such as development, and conservation actions to exist side by side.
Local Variability Mediates Vulnerability of Trout Populations to Land Use and Climate Change
Penaluna, Brooke E.; Dunham, Jason B.; Railsback, Steve F.; Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri L.; Bilby, Robert E.; Safeeq, Mohammad; Skaugset, Arne E.
2015-01-01
Land use and climate change occur simultaneously around the globe. Fully understanding their separate and combined effects requires a mechanistic understanding at the local scale where their effects are ultimately realized. Here we applied an individual-based model of fish population dynamics to evaluate the role of local stream variability in modifying responses of Coastal Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii) to scenarios simulating identical changes in temperature and stream flows linked to forest harvest, climate change, and their combined effects over six decades. We parameterized the model for four neighboring streams located in a forested headwater catchment in northwestern Oregon, USA with multi-year, daily measurements of stream temperature, flow, and turbidity (2007–2011), and field measurements of both instream habitat structure and three years of annual trout population estimates. Model simulations revealed that variability in habitat conditions among streams (depth, available habitat) mediated the effects of forest harvest and climate change. Net effects for most simulated trout responses were different from or less than the sum of their separate scenarios. In some cases, forest harvest countered the effects of climate change through increased summer flow. Climate change most strongly influenced trout (earlier fry emergence, reductions in biomass of older trout, increased biomass of young-of-year), but these changes did not consistently translate into reductions in biomass over time. Forest harvest, in contrast, produced fewer and less consistent responses in trout. Earlier fry emergence driven by climate change was the most consistent simulated response, whereas survival, growth, and biomass were inconsistent. Overall our findings indicate a host of local processes can strongly influence how populations respond to broad scale effects of land use and climate change. PMID:26295478
Invertebrates, ecosystem services and climate change.
Prather, Chelse M; Pelini, Shannon L; Laws, Angela; Rivest, Emily; Woltz, Megan; Bloch, Christopher P; Del Toro, Israel; Ho, Chuan-Kai; Kominoski, John; Newbold, T A Scott; Parsons, Sheena; Joern, A
2013-05-01
The sustainability of ecosystem services depends on a firm understanding of both how organisms provide these services to humans and how these organisms will be altered with a changing climate. Unquestionably a dominant feature of most ecosystems, invertebrates affect many ecosystem services and are also highly responsive to climate change. However, there is still a basic lack of understanding of the direct and indirect paths by which invertebrates influence ecosystem services, as well as how climate change will affect those ecosystem services by altering invertebrate populations. This indicates a lack of communication and collaboration among scientists researching ecosystem services and climate change effects on invertebrates, and land managers and researchers from other disciplines, which becomes obvious when systematically reviewing the literature relevant to invertebrates, ecosystem services, and climate change. To address this issue, we review how invertebrates respond to climate change. We then review how invertebrates both positively and negatively influence ecosystem services. Lastly, we provide some critical future directions for research needs, and suggest ways in which managers, scientists and other researchers may collaborate to tackle the complex issue of sustaining invertebrate-mediated services under a changing climate. © 2012 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2012 Cambridge Philosophical Society.
Climate Change Ignorance: An Unacceptable Legacy
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Boon, Helen J.
2015-01-01
Climate change effects will be most acutely felt by future generations. Recent prior research has shown that school students' knowledge of climate change science is very limited in rural Australia. The purpose of this study was to assess the capacity of preservice teachers and parents to transmit climate change information and understanding to…
Economic costs of extratropical storms under climate change: An application of FUND
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Narita, D.; Tol, R.; Anthoff, D.
2009-12-01
Extratropical cyclones have attracted some attention in climate policy circles as a possible significant damage factor of climate change. This study conducts an assessment of economic impacts of increased storm activities under climate change with the integrated assessment model FUND 3.5. FUND is a model that calculates damages of climate change for 16 regions by making use of exogenous scenarios of socioeconomic variables (for details of our estimation approach, see our working paper whose URL is indicated below). Our estimation shows that in the base case, the direct economic damage of enhanced storms due to climate change amounts to $2.8 billion globally (approximately 38% of the total economic loss of storms at present) at the year 2100, while the ratio to the world GDP is 0.0009%. The regional results (Figure 1) indicate that the economic effect of extratropical storms with climate change would have relatively minor importance for the US (USA): The enhanced extratropical storm damage (less than 0.001% of GDP for the base case) is one order of magnitude lower than the tropical cyclone damage (roughly 0.01% GDP) calculated by the same version of FUND. In the regions without strong tropical cyclone influence, such as Western Europe (WEU) and Australia and New Zealand (ANZ), the extratropical storms might have some more significance as a possible damage factor of climate change. Especially for the latter, the direct economic damage could amount to more than 0.006% of GDP. Still, the impact is small relative to the income growth expected in these regions. Figure 1. Increased direct economic loss at the year 2100 for selected regions (results are shown for the three different baselines: the years 1986-2005, 1976-2005, and 1996-2005). US - USA; Canada - CAN; Western Europe - WEU; Australia and New Zealand - ANZ.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Goderniaux, Pascal; BrouyèRe, Serge; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Burton, Aidan; Fowler, Hayley J.; Orban, Philippe; Dassargues, Alain
2011-12-01
Several studies have highlighted the potential negative impact of climate change on groundwater reserves, but additional work is required to help water managers plan for future changes. In particular, existing studies provide projections for a stationary climate representative of the end of the century, although information is demanded for the near future. Such time-slice experiments fail to account for the transient nature of climatic changes over the century. Moreover, uncertainty linked to natural climate variability is not explicitly considered in previous studies. In this study we substantially improve upon the state-of-the-art by using a sophisticated transient weather generator in combination with an integrated surface-subsurface hydrological model (Geer basin, Belgium) developed with the finite element modeling software "HydroGeoSphere." This version of the weather generator enables the stochastic generation of large numbers of equiprobable climatic time series, representing transient climate change, and used to assess impacts in a probabilistic way. For the Geer basin, 30 equiprobable climate change scenarios from 2010 to 2085 have been generated for each of six different regional climate models (RCMs). Results show that although the 95% confidence intervals calculated around projected groundwater levels remain large, the climate change signal becomes stronger than that of natural climate variability by 2085. Additionally, the weather generator's ability to simulate transient climate change enabled the assessment of the likely time scale and associated uncertainty of a specific impact, providing managers with additional information when planning further investment. This methodology constitutes a real improvement in the field of groundwater projections under climate change conditions.
Climate Change Education in Earth System Science
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hänsel, Stephanie; Matschullat, Jörg
2013-04-01
The course "Atmospheric Research - Climate Change" is offered to master Earth System Science students within the specialisation "Climate and Environment" at the Technical University Bergakademie Freiberg. This module takes a comprehensive approach to climate sciences, reaching from the natural sciences background of climate change via the social components of the issue to the statistical analysis of changes in climate parameters. The course aims at qualifying the students to structure the physical and chemical basics of the climate system including relevant feedbacks. The students can evaluate relevant drivers of climate variability and change on various temporal and spatial scales and can transform knowledge from climate history to the present and the future. Special focus is given to the assessment of uncertainties related to climate observations and projections as well as the specific challenges of extreme weather and climate events. At the end of the course the students are able to critically reflect and evaluate climate change related results of scientific studies and related issues in media. The course is divided into two parts - "Climate Change" and "Climate Data Analysis" and encompasses two lectures, one seminar and one exercise. The weekly "Climate change" lecture transmits the physical and chemical background for climate variation and change. (Pre)historical, observed and projected climate changes and their effects on various sectors are being introduced and discussed regarding their implications for society, economics, ecology and politics. The related seminar presents and discusses the multiple reasons for controversy in climate change issues, based on various texts. Students train the presentation of scientific content and the discussion of climate change aspects. The biweekly lecture on "Climate data analysis" introduces the most relevant statistical tools and methods in climate science. Starting with checking data quality via tools of exploratory
Theresa K. Andersen; Marshall J. Shepherd
2013-01-01
Atmospheric warming and associated hydrological changes have implications for regional flood intensity and frequency. Climate models and hydrological models have the ability to integrate various contributing factors and assess potential changes to hydrology at global to local scales through the century. This survey of floods in a changing climate reviews flood...
Climate Change Impacts of US Reactive Nitrogen Emissions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pinder, R. W.; Davidson, E. A.; Goodale, C. L.; Greaver, T.; Herrick, J.; Liu, L.
2011-12-01
By fossil fuel combustion and fertilizer application, the US has substantially altered the nitrogen cycle, with serious effects on climate change. The climate effects can be short-lived, by impacting the chemistry of the atmosphere, or long-lived, by altering ecosystem greenhouse gas fluxes. Here, we develop a coherent framework for assessing the climate change impacts of US reactive nitrogen emissions. We use the global temperature potential (GTP) as a common metric, and we calculate the GTP at 20 and 100 years in units of CO2 equivalents. At both time-scales, nitrogen enhancement of CO2 uptake has the largest impact, because in the eastern US, areas of high nitrogen deposition are co-located with forests. In the short-term, the effect due to NOx altering ozone and methane concentrations is also substantial, but are not important on the 100 year time scale. Finally, the GTP of N2O emissions is substantial at both time scales. We have also attributed these impacts to combustion and agricultural sources, and quantified the uncertainty. Reactive nitrogen from combustion sources contribute more to cooling than warming. The impacts of agricultural sources tend to cancel each other out, and the net effect is uncertain. Recent trends show decreasing reactive nitrogen from US combustion sources, while agricultural sources are increasing. Fortunately, there are many mitigation strategies currently available to reduce the climate change impacts of US agricultural sources.
Modeled impact of anthropogenic land cover change on climate
Findell, K.L.; Shevliakova, E.; Milly, P.C.D.; Stouffer, R.J.
2007-01-01
Equilibrium experiments with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's climate model are used to investigate the impact of anthropogenic land cover change on climate. Regions of altered land cover include large portions of Europe, India, eastern China, and the eastern United States. Smaller areas of change are present in various tropical regions. This study focuses on the impacts of biophysical changes associated with the land cover change (albedo, root and stomatal properties, roughness length), which is almost exclusively a conversion from forest to grassland in the model; the effects of irrigation or other water management practices and the effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide changes associated with land cover conversion are not included in these experiments. The model suggests that observed land cover changes have little or no impact on globally averaged climatic variables (e.g., 2-m air temperature is 0.008 K warmer in a simulation with 1990 land cover compared to a simulation with potential natural vegetation cover). Differences in the annual mean climatic fields analyzed did not exhibit global field significance. Within some of the regions of land cover change, however, there are relatively large changes of many surface climatic variables. These changes are highly significant locally in the annual mean and in most months of the year in eastern Europe and northern India. They can be explained mainly as direct and indirect consequences of model-prescribed increases in surface albedo, decreases in rooting depth, and changes of stomatal control that accompany deforestation. ?? 2007 American Meteorological Society.
Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate
Milly, P.C.D.; Wetherald, R.T.; Dunne, K.A.; Delworth, T.L.
2002-01-01
Radiative effects of anthropogenic changes in atmospheric composition are expected to cause climate changes, in particular an intensification of the global water cycle with a consequent increase in flood risk. But the detection of anthropogenically forced changes in flooding is difficult because of the substantial natural variability; the dependence of streamflow trends on flow regime further complicates the issue. Here we investigate the changes in risk of great floods - that is, floods with discharges exceeding 100-year levels from basins larger than 200,000 km2 - using both streamflow measurements and numerical simulations of the anthropogenic climate change associated with greenhouse gases and direct radiative effects of sulphate aerosols. We find that the frequency of great floods increased substantially during the twentieth century. The recent emergence of a statistically significant positive trend in risk of great floods is consistent with results from the climate model, and the model suggests that the trend will continue.
Climate change impacts in Iran: assessing our current knowledge
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rahimi, Jaber; Malekian, Arash; Khalili, Ali
2018-02-01
During recent years, various studies have focused on investigating the direct and indirect impacts of climate changes in Iran while the noteworthy fact is the achievement gained by these researches. Furthermore, what should be taken into consideration is whether these studies have been able to provide appropriate opportunities for improving further studies in this particular field or not. To address these questions, this study systematically reviewed and summarized the current available literature (n = 150) regarding the impacts of climate change on temperature and precipitation in Iran to assess our current state of knowledge. The results revealed that while all studies discuss the probable changes in temperature and precipitation over the next decades, serious contradictions could be seen in their results; also, the general pattern of changes was different in most of the cases. This matter may have a significant effect on public beliefs in climate change, which can be a serious warning for the activists in this realm.
Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests.
Abatzoglou, John T; Williams, A Park
2016-10-18
Increased forest fire activity across the western continental United States (US) in recent decades has likely been enabled by a number of factors, including the legacy of fire suppression and human settlement, natural climate variability, and human-caused climate change. We use modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western United States. Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US forests over the past several decades and, during 2000-2015, contributed to 75% more forested area experiencing high (>1 σ) fire-season fuel aridity and an average of nine additional days per year of high fire potential. Anthropogenic climate change accounted for ∼55% of observed increases in fuel aridity from 1979 to 2015 across western US forests, highlighting both anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability as important contributors to increased wildfire potential in recent decades. We estimate that human-caused climate change contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha of forest fire area during 1984-2015, nearly doubling the forest fire area expected in its absence. Natural climate variability will continue to alternate between modulating and compounding anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity, but anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a driver of increased forest fire activity and should continue to do so while fuels are not limiting.
Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Abatzoglou, John T.; Park Williams, A.
2016-10-01
Increased forest fire activity across the western continental United States (US) in recent decades has likely been enabled by a number of factors, including the legacy of fire suppression and human settlement, natural climate variability, and human-caused climate change. We use modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western United States. Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US forests over the past several decades and, during 2000-2015, contributed to 75% more forested area experiencing high (>1 σ) fire-season fuel aridity and an average of nine additional days per year of high fire potential. Anthropogenic climate change accounted for ˜55% of observed increases in fuel aridity from 1979 to 2015 across western US forests, highlighting both anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability as important contributors to increased wildfire potential in recent decades. We estimate that human-caused climate change contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha of forest fire area during 1984-2015, nearly doubling the forest fire area expected in its absence. Natural climate variability will continue to alternate between modulating and compounding anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity, but anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a driver of increased forest fire activity and should continue to do so while fuels are not limiting.
Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests
Williams, A. Park
2016-01-01
Increased forest fire activity across the western continental United States (US) in recent decades has likely been enabled by a number of factors, including the legacy of fire suppression and human settlement, natural climate variability, and human-caused climate change. We use modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western United States. Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US forests over the past several decades and, during 2000–2015, contributed to 75% more forested area experiencing high (>1 σ) fire-season fuel aridity and an average of nine additional days per year of high fire potential. Anthropogenic climate change accounted for ∼55% of observed increases in fuel aridity from 1979 to 2015 across western US forests, highlighting both anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability as important contributors to increased wildfire potential in recent decades. We estimate that human-caused climate change contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha of forest fire area during 1984–2015, nearly doubling the forest fire area expected in its absence. Natural climate variability will continue to alternate between modulating and compounding anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity, but anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a driver of increased forest fire activity and should continue to do so while fuels are not limiting. PMID:27791053
Conservation and adaptation to climate change.
Brooke, Cassandra
2008-12-01
The need to adapt to climate change has become increasingly apparent, and many believe the practice of biodiversity conservation will need to alter to face this challenge. Conservation organizations are eager to determine how they should adapt their practices to climate change. This involves asking the fundamental question of what adaptation to climate change means. Most studies on climate change and conservation, if they consider adaptation at all, assume it is equivalent to the ability of species to adapt naturally to climate change as stated in Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Adaptation, however, can refer to an array of activities that range from natural adaptation, at one end of the spectrum, to sustainability science in coupled human and natural systems at the other. Most conservation organizations deal with complex systems in which adaptation to climate change involves making decisions on priorities for biodiversity conservation in the face of dynamic risks and involving the public in these decisions. Discursive methods such as analytic deliberation are useful for integrating scientific knowledge with public perceptions and values, particularly when large uncertainties and risks are involved. The use of scenarios in conservation planning is a useful way to build shared understanding at the science-policy interface. Similarly, boundary organizations-organizations or institutions that bridge different scales or mediate the relationship between science and policy-could prove useful for managing the transdisciplinary nature of adaptation to climate change, providing communication and brokerage services and helping to build adaptive capacity. The fact that some nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are active across the areas of science, policy, and practice makes them well placed to fulfill this role in integrated assessments of biodiversity conservation and adaptation to climate change.
Risk to a Changing Climate in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vargas, N. D.
2016-12-01
The issue of climate change has dominated the atmospheric sciences agenda in recent decades. The concern about an increase in climate related disasters, mainly in large population centers, has led to ask whether they are mainly due to changes in climate or in vulnerability.The Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) is an example of megalopolis under high climate risk, where floods, landslides, health problems, high air pollution events, socioeconomic droughts are becoming important environmental and social problems. As urbanization spreads and population increases exposure to natural hazards increases, and so the magnitude of risk to a changing climate and the negative impacts. Since the late nineteenth century, in the MCMA an average maximum temperature could be around 22°C, whereas today it is about 24.5ºC. That is, the increase in the average temperature in Mexico City is around 3°C in a hundred years. But there are areas where an increase in the average temperature is similar in only thirty years. The heating rate of the city can vary depending on the change in land use. Areas that conserve forested regions in the process of urbanization tend to warm less than areas where the transformation into concrete and cement is almost complete. Thus, the climate of the MCMA shows important changes mainly in relation to land use changes. Global warming and natural climate variability were also analyzed as possible forcing factors of the observed warming by comparing low frequency variations in local temperature and indices for natural forcing. The hydrological cycle of the MCMA has also changed with urbanization. The "bubble of hot air" over the urban area has more capacity to hold moisture now than before the UHI. However, the increased risk to floods, heat or drought appears to be related not only to more frequent intense climatic hazards induced by the urbanization effect. This process also induces increased vulnerability to a changing climate. The establishment of
Climate change induced by Southern Hemisphere desertification
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, Ye; Yan, Xiaodong
2017-12-01
Some 10-20% of global dry-lands are already degraded, and the ongoing desertification threatens the world's poorest populations. Studies on desertification effects are essential for humans to adapt to the environmental challenges posed by desertification. Given the importance of the much larger southern ocean to the global climate and the Southern Hemisphere (SH) climate changes in phase with those in the north, the biogeophysical effects of the SH desertification on climate are assessed using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, MPM-2. This analysis focuses on differences in climate among the averages of simulations with desert expansion in different latitude bands by year 2000. The localized desertification causes significant global changes in temperature and precipitation as well as surface albedo. On the global scale, cooling dominates the SH desertification effects. However, the biogeophysical effects are most significant in regions with desertification, and the cooling is also prominent in northern mid-latitudes. Desert expansion in 15°-30°S reveals statistically most significant cooling and increased precipitation over the forcing regions during spring. The global and regional scale responses from desertification imply the climate teleconnection and address the importance of the effects from the SH which are contingent on the location of the forcing. Our study indicates that biogeophysical mechanisms of land cover changes in the SH need to be accounted for in the assessment of land management options especially for latitude band over 15°-30°S.
Climate change threatens European conservation areas
Araújo, Miguel B; Alagador, Diogo; Cabeza, Mar; Nogués-Bravo, David; Thuiller, Wilfried
2011-01-01
Europe has the world's most extensive network of conservation areas. Conservation areas are selected without taking into account the effects of climate change. How effectively would such areas conserve biodiversity under climate change? We assess the effectiveness of protected areas and the Natura 2000 network in conserving a large proportion of European plant and terrestrial vertebrate species under climate change. We found that by 2080, 58 ± 2.6% of the species would lose suitable climate in protected areas, whereas losses affected 63 ± 2.1% of the species of European concern occurring in Natura 2000 areas. Protected areas are expected to retain climatic suitability for species better than unprotected areas (P<0.001), but Natura 2000 areas retain climate suitability for species no better and sometimes less effectively than unprotected areas. The risk is high that ongoing efforts to conserve Europe's biodiversity are jeopardized by climate change. New policies are required to avert this risk. PMID:21447141
Long-term climate change commitment and reversibility: An EMIC intercomparison
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zickfeld, K.; Eby, M.; Weaver, A. J.
2012-12-01
This paper summarizes the results of an intercomparison project with Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) undertaken in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The focus is on long-term climate projections designed to: (i) quantify the climate change "commitment" of a range of radiative forcing trajectories, and (ii) explore the extent to which climate change is reversible if atmospheric CO2 is left to evolve freely or is artificially restored to pre-industrial levels. All commitment simulations follow the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and their extensions to 2300. Most EMICs simulate significant surface air temperature and thermosteric sea level rise commitment following stabilization of the atmospheric composition at year-2300 levels. The additional warming by the year 3000 is 0.0-0.6 °C for RCP4.5 and 0.0-1.2 °C for RCP8.5, and the additional sea level rise is 0.1-1.0 m for RCP4.5 and 0.4-2.6 m for RCP8.5. Elimination of anthropogenic CO2 emissions results in constant or slightly decreasing surface air temperature in all EMICs. Thermosteric sea level rise continues after elimination of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, with additional sea level rise between 2300 and 3000 of 0.0-0.5 m for RCP4.5 and 0.2-2.4 m for RCP8.5. The largest warming and sea level rise commitment are simulated for the case with constant year-2300 CO2 emissions. Restoration of atmospheric CO2 from RCP to pre-industrial levels over 100-1000 years does not result in the simultaneous return to pre-industrial climate conditions, as surface air temperature and sea level rise exhibit a substantial time lag relative to atmospheric CO2, and requires large artificial removal of CO2 from the atmosphere. Results of the climate change commitment and reversibility simulations differ widely among EMICs, both in the physical and biogeochemical response. Particularly large differences are identified in the response of
Indices of climate change in the Artic zone derived from radiosondes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Añel, J. A.; Gimeno, L.; de La Torre, L.; Nieto, R.; Tesouro, M.; Ribera, P.; García, R.; Hernández, E.
2003-04-01
The use of indices has been traditionally one of the main tools to identify climatic change. Here we present a study of the interannual variability of parameters derived from radiosonde data to study climate change in the artic zone. Trends, oscillations and the relationship with the principal climate variability mode for this region ( Northern Annular Mode) have been studied. We calculate the indices from the Upper Air Digital Files of the National Climatic Data Center (CARDS). We chose for our work the radiosonde data of stations over the studied region, with a temporal coverage of 27 years (1973-1998).
EDITORIAL: Northern Hemisphere high latitude climate and environmental change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Groisman, Pavel; Soja, Amber
2007-10-01
High Northern Hemisphere latitudes are undergoing rapid and significant change associated with climate warming. Climatic change in this region interacts with and affects the rate of the global change through atmospheric circulation, biogeophysical, and biogeochemical feedbacks. Changes in the surface energy balance, hydrologic cycle, and carbon budget feedback to regional and global weather and climate systems. Two-thirds of the Northern Hemisphere high latitude land mass resides in Northern Eurasia (~20% of the global land mass), and this region has undergone sweeping socio-economic change throughout the 20th century. How this carbon-rich, cold region component of the Earth system functions as a regional entity and interacts with and feeds back to the greater global system is to a large extent unknown. To mitigate the deficiencies in understanding these feedbacks, which may in turn hamper our understanding of the global change rates and patterns, an initiative was formed. Three years ago the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) was established to address large-scale and long-term manifestations of climate and environmental change in this region. The NEESPI Science Plan and its Executive Summary have been published at the NEESPI web site (neespi.org). Since 2004, NEESPI participants have been able to seed several waves of research proposals to international and national funding agencies and institutions and also contribute to the International Polar Year. Currently, NEESPI is widely recognized and endorsed by several Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP) programmes and projects: the International Geosphere and Biosphere Programme, the World Climate Research Programme through the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment and Climate and Cryosphere Projects, the Global Water System Project, Global Carbon Project, Global Land Project, and the Integrated Land Ecosystem—Atmosphere Processes Study. Through NEESPI, more than 100 individually
Climate change and managing water crisis: Pakistan's perspective.
Hussain, Mumtaz; Mumtaz, Saniea
2014-01-01
Climate change is a global phenomenon manifested mainly through global warming. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has reported its negative consequences on natural resources, anthropogenic activities, and natural disasters. The El Nino and La Nina have affected hydrologic regimes and ecosystems. It has been observed that the average temperature in 1995 was 0.4°C higher than that in 1895. By the end of the 21st century, 10% of the area of Bangladesh is likely to be submerged by the sea. Most of the islands of Pacific Ocean will disappear. A major part of Maldives will be submerged. The sea level is expected to rise by 30-150 cm. Extreme events such as floods, cyclones, tsunamis, and droughts have become regular phenomena in many parts of the world. Other adverse impacts are proliferation of water-borne diseases, sea water intrusion, salinization of coastal areas, loss of biodiversity, eco-degradation of watersheds and global glacial decline, and haphazard snow melts/thaws. In turn, these factors have serious effect on water resources. Pakistan is confronting similar climate change. Meteorological data reveal that winter temperatures are rising and summers are getting cooler. Temperature is expected to increase by 0.9°C and 1.5°C by years 2020 and 2050, respectively. Water resources in Pakistan are affected by climate change as it impacts the behavior of glaciers, rainfall patterns, greenhouse gas emissions, recurrence of extreme events such as floods and droughts. Severe floods have occurred in the years 1950, 1956, 1957, 1973, 1976, 1978, 1988, 1992, 2010, 2011, and 2012. Pakistan has faced the worst-ever droughts during the period from 1998 to 2004. Pakistan has surface water potential of 140 million acre feet (MAF) and underground water reserve of 56 MAF. It is one of the most water-stressed countries in the world. The per capita annual availability of water has reduced from 5140 m3 in 1950 to 1000 m3 now. It is fast approaching towards water
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dai, A.; Saito, L.; Sapin, J. R.; Rajagopalan, B.; Hanna, R. B.; Kauneckis, D. L.
2014-12-01
Chinook salmon populations have declined significantly after the construction of Shasta Dam on the Sacramento River in 1945 prevented them from spawning in the cold waters upstream. In 1994, the winter-run Chinook were listed under the Endangered Species Act and 3 years later the US Bureau of Reclamation began operating a temperature control device (TCD) on the dam that allows for selective withdrawal for downstream temperature control to promote salmon spawning while also maximizing power generation. However, dam operators are responsible to other interests that depend on the reservoir for water such as agriculture, municipalities, industry, and recreation. An increase in temperatures due to climate change may place additional strain on the ability of dam operations to maintain spawning habitat for salmon downstream of the dam. We examined the capability of Shasta Dam to regulate downstream temperatures under extreme climates and climate change by using stochastically generated streamflow, stream temperature, and weather inputs with a two-dimensional CE-QUAL-W2 model under several operational options. Operation performance was evaluated using degree days and cold pool volume (volume of water below a temperature threshold). Model results indicated that a generalized operations release schedule, in which release elevations varied over the year to match downstream temperature targets, performed best overall in meeting temperature targets while preserving cold pool volume. Releasing all water out the bottom throughout the year tended to meet temperature targets at the expense of depleting the cold pool, and releasing all water out uppermost gates preserved the cold pool, but released water that was too warm during the critical spawning period. With higher air temperatures due to climate change, both degree day and cold pool volume metrics were worse than baseline conditions, which suggests that Chinook salmon may be more negatively affected under climate change.
Nicole M. Herman-Mercer; Elli Matkin; Melinda J. Laituri; Ryan C. Toohey; Maggie Massey; Kelly Elder; Paul F. Schuster; Edda A. Mutter
2016-01-01
Indigenous Arctic and Subarctic communities currently are facing a myriad of social and environmental changes. In response to these changes, studies concerning indigenous knowledge (IK) and climate change vulnerability, resiliency, and adaptation have increased dramatically in recent years. Risks to lives and livelihoods are often the focus of adaptation...
Reliability of flipper-banded penguins as indicators of climate change.
Saraux, Claire; Le Bohec, Céline; Durant, Joël M; Viblanc, Vincent A; Gauthier-Clerc, Michel; Beaune, David; Park, Young-Hyang; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Stenseth, Nils C; Le Maho, Yvon
2011-01-13
In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlighted an urgent need to assess the responses of marine ecosystems to climate change. Because they lie in a high-latitude region, the Southern Ocean ecosystems are expected to be strongly affected by global warming. Using top predators of this highly productive ocean (such as penguins) as integrative indicators may help us assess the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems. Yet most available information on penguin population dynamics is based on the controversial use of flipper banding. Although some reports have found the effects of flipper bands to be deleterious, some short-term (one-year) studies have concluded otherwise, resulting in the continuation of extensive banding schemes and the use of data sets thus collected to predict climate impact on natural populations. Here we show that banding of free-ranging king penguins (Aptenodytes patagonicus) impairs both survival and reproduction, ultimately affecting population growth rate. Over the course of a 10-year longitudinal study, banded birds produced 41% [corrected] fewer chicks and had a survival rate 16 percentage points [corrected] lower than non-banded birds, demonstrating a massive long-term impact of banding and thus refuting the assumption that birds will ultimately adapt to being banded. Indeed, banded birds still arrived later for breeding at the study site and had longer foraging trips even after 10 years. One of our major findings is that responses of flipper-banded penguins to climate variability (that is, changes in sea surface temperature and in the Southern Oscillation index) differ from those of non-banded birds. We show that only long-term investigations may allow an evaluation of the impact of flipper bands and that every major life-history trait can be affected, calling into question the banding schemes still going on. In addition, our understanding of the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems based on flipper
Widespread Climate Change in the Himalayas and Associated Changes in Local Ecosystems
Shrestha, Uttam Babu; Gautam, Shiva; Bawa, Kamaljit S.
2012-01-01
Background Climate change in the Himalayas, a biodiversity hotspot, home of many sacred landscapes, and the source of eight largest rivers of Asia, is likely to impact the well-being of ∼20% of humanity. However, despite the extraordinary environmental, cultural, and socio-economic importance of the Himalayas, and despite their rapidly increasing ecological degradation, not much is known about actual changes in the two most critical climatic variables: temperature and rainfall. Nor do we know how changes in these parameters might impact the ecosystems including vegetation phenology. Methodology/Principal Findings By analyzing temperature and rainfall data, and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) values from remotely sensed imagery, we report significant changes in temperature, rainfall, and vegetation phenology across the Himalayas between 1982 and 2006. The average annual mean temperature during the 25 year period has increased by 1.5°C with an average increase of 0.06°C yr−1. The average annual precipitation has increased by 163 mm or 6.52 mmyr−1. Since changes in temperature and precipitation are immediately manifested as changes in phenology of local ecosystems, we examined phenological changes in all major ecoregions. The average start of the growing season (SOS) seems to have advanced by 4.7 days or 0.19 days yr−1 and the length of growing season (LOS) appears to have advanced by 4.7 days or 0.19 days yr−1, but there has been no change in the end of the growing season (EOS). There is considerable spatial and seasonal variation in changes in climate and phenological parameters. Conclusions/Significance This is the first time that large scale climatic and phenological changes at the landscape level have been documented for the Himalayas. The rate of warming in the Himalayas is greater than the global average, confirming that the Himalayas are among the regions most vulnerable to climate change. PMID:22615804
The resilience of postglacial hunter-gatherers to abrupt climate change.
Blockley, Simon; Candy, Ian; Matthews, Ian; Langdon, Pete; Langdon, Cath; Palmer, Adrian; Lincoln, Paul; Abrook, Ashley; Taylor, Barry; Conneller, Chantal; Bayliss, Alex; MacLeod, Alison; Deeprose, Laura; Darvill, Chris; Kearney, Rebecca; Beavan, Nancy; Staff, Richard; Bamforth, Michael; Taylor, Maisie; Milner, Nicky
2018-05-01
Understanding the resilience of early societies to climate change is an essential part of exploring the environmental sensitivity of human populations. There is significant interest in the role of abrupt climate events as a driver of early Holocene human activity, but there are very few well-dated records directly compared with local climate archives. Here, we present evidence from the internationally important Mesolithic site of Star Carr showing occupation during the early Holocene, which is directly compared with a high-resolution palaeoclimate record from neighbouring lake beds. We show that-once established-there was intensive human activity at the site for several hundred years when the community was subject to multiple, severe, abrupt climate events that impacted air temperatures, the landscape and the ecosystem of the region. However, these results show that occupation and activity at the site persisted regardless of the environmental stresses experienced by this society. The Star Carr population displayed a high level of resilience to climate change, suggesting that postglacial populations were not necessarily held hostage to the flickering switch of climate change. Instead, we show that local, intrinsic changes in the wetland environment were more significant in determining human activity than the large-scale abrupt early Holocene climate events.
Evolution of body size in the woodrat over the past 25,000 years of climate change
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Smith, F.A.; Brown, J.H.; Betancourt, J.L.
1995-12-22
Microevolutionary changes in the body size of the bushy-tailed woodrat (Neotoma cinerea) since the last glacial maximum were estimated from measurements of fecal pellets preserved in paleomiddens from the Great Basin and Colorado Plateau of the United States. The changes closely track regional temperature fluctuations simulated by the Community Climate Model of the National Center for Atmospheric Research and also those estimated from deuterium isotope ratios of plant cellulose recovered from paleomiddens. Body size decreased during periods of climatic warming, as predicted from Bergmann`s rule and from physiological responses to temperature stress. Fossil woodrat middens, by providing detailed temporal sequencesmore » of body sizes from many locations, permit precise quantification of responses to climatic change that have occurred in the past and may occur in the future. 24 refs., 3 figs.« less
Geodynamic contributions to global climatic change
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Bills, Bruce G.
1992-01-01
Orbital and rotational variations perturb the latitudinal and seasonal pattern of incident solar radiation, producing major climatic change on time scales of 10(exp 4)-10(exp 6) years. The orbital variations are oblivious to internal structure and processes, but the rotational variations are not. A program of investigation whose objective would be to explore and quantify three aspects of orbital, rotational, and climatic interactions is described. An important premise of this investigation is the synergism between geodynamics and paleoclimate. Better geophysical models of precessional dynamics are needed in order to accurately reconstruct the radiative input to climate models. Some of the paleoclimate proxy records contain information relevant to solid Earth processes, on time scales which are difficult to constrain otherwise. Specific mechanisms which will be addressed include: (1) climatic consequences of deglacial polar motion; and (2) precessional and climatic consequences of glacially induced perturbations in the gravitational oblateness and partial decoupling of the mantle and core. The approach entails constructing theoretical models of the rotational, deformational, radiative, and climatic response of the Earth to known orbital perturbations, and comparing these with extensive records of paleoclimate proxy data. Several of the mechanisms of interest may participate in previously unrecognized feed-back loops in the climate dynamics system. A new algorithm for estimating climatically diagnostic locations and seasons from the paleoclimate time series is proposed.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stover, D. B.; Jones, A.; Kusek, K.; Bebber, D.; Phillips, R.; Campbell, J.
2010-12-01
Earthwatch has engaged more than 90,000 citizen scientists in long-term research studies since its founding in 1971. One of its newer research and engagement programs is the HSBC Climate Partnership, a five-year global program on climate change to inspire action by individuals, businesses and governments (2007-2012). In this unique NGO-business partnership, Earthwatch has implemented five forest research-focused climate centers in the US, UK, Brazil, India and China. At each center, a team of scientists—supported by HSBC banking employees and local citizen scientists—is gathering data to determine how temperate and tropical forests are affected by changes in climate and human activity. Results are establishing baseline data to empower forest managers, conservationists and communities with the information they need to better manage forests within a changing climate. A critical component of the program is the engagement of 2,200 corporate HSBC employees who spend two weeks out of the office at one of the regional climate centers. They work alongside leading scientists to perform forest research by day, and participate each evening in an interactive education program on the ecological and socioeconomic impacts of climate change—including how climate change impacts HSBC’s bottom line. Program participants are empowered and have successfully developed sustainability projects they implement back in their office, homes and communities that furthers corporate and public commitment to sustainability and combating the effects of climate change. In addition to the corporate engagement model, Earthwatch has successfully engaged scores of local community stakeholders in the HSBC Climate Partnership, including teachers who report back to their classrooms “live from the field,” reporters and other business/NGO leaders in modified one week versions of the field program. New models of citizen science engagement are currently under development, with best practices and
Climate change for the last 1,000 years inferred from borehole temperatures
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kitaoka, K.; Arimoto, H.; Hamamoto, H.; Taniguchi, M.; Takeuchi, T.
2013-12-01
Subsurface temperatures are an archive of temperature changes occurred at the ground surface in the recent past (Lachenbruch and Marshall, 1986; Pollack, 1993). In order to investigate the local surface temperature histories in Osaka Plane, Japan, we observed subsurface temperatures in existing boreholes, using a thermometer logger. Many temperature-depth profiles within 200 m depth from the ground surface have been obtained, but they show considerable variability. The geological formations in the area consist of horizontally stratified sedimentary layers of about 1,000 m in thickness overlaid on bedrock of granite. There exists a vertical disordered structure in the formations, which may be relating to an active fault (Uemachi fault) in the bedrock (Takemura, et al, 2013). It is considered that groundwater in the horizontal layers cannot move vertically, but can move vertically along the vertical disordered zone. Various temperature profiles might be related to occurrence of vertical groundwater flow in the zone. Analytical models of subsurface temperature which include heat conduction and convection due to vertical groundwater flow in the zone have been constructed under the boundary conditions of prescribing time dependent surface temperature and uniform geothermal flux from greater depths. To solve as one-dimensional problem, heat transfer between the vertical zone and the surrounding medium of no groundwater flow is assumed. Prescribing surface temperatures were given as exponential and periodic functions of the time. Climate change can be considered to comprise both natural and artificial changes. Artificial change, which occurs by the increasing combustion of fossil fuels, is considered roughly to be an exponential increase of the ground surface temperature during the last 150 years. Natural change, which can correlate to solar activity (Lassen and Friis-Christensen, 1995), is assumed roughly to be periodic with the period of about 1200 y at the minimum time
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Mickler, R.A.; Fox, S.A.
The mission of the SGCP is to conduct research and monitoring in the southern region of the US; to determine the interactive responses among forest ecosystems, atmospheric pollution, and climate change; and to use this knowledge to manage and protect forest ecosystems. The first 5 years of research have emphasized the interactions and impacts of five stresses: CO{sub 2}, ozone, temperature, moisture, and nutrients in pine ecosystems. Hierarchial research approaches include correlational studies, experimental field and lab studies, and modeling Across individual-tree to regional levels. The results from 36 projects suggest: elevated CO{sub 2} increases carbon gain and suppress respirationmore » across site-resource conditions; genotypes are differentially affected by climate events; and competition and reproductive biology are likely to be impacted by climate change. An overview of five years of research results will be discussed.« less
Climate project screening tool: an aid for climate change adaptation
Toni Lyn Morelli; Sharon Yeh; Nikola M. Smith; Mary Beth Hennessy; Constance I. Millar
2012-01-01
To address the impacts of climate change, land managers need techniques for incorporating adaptation into ongoing or impending projects. We present a new tool, the Climate Project Screening Tool (CPST), for integrating climate change considerations into project planning as well as for developing concrete adaptation options for land managers. We designed CPST as part of...
Harper, S L; Edge, V L; Cunsolo Willox, A
2012-03-01
Global climate change and its impact on public health exemplify the challenge of managing complexity and uncertainty in health research. The Canadian North is currently experiencing dramatic shifts in climate, resulting in environmental changes which impact Inuit livelihoods, cultural practices, and health. For researchers investigating potential climate change impacts on Inuit health, it has become clear that comprehensive and meaningful research outcomes depend on taking a systemic and transdisciplinary approach that engages local citizens in project design, data collection, and analysis. While it is increasingly recognised that using approaches that embrace complexity is a necessity in public health, mobilizing such approaches from theory into practice can be challenging. In 2009, the Rigolet Inuit Community Government in Rigolet, Nunatsiavut, Canada partnered with a transdisciplinary team of researchers, health practitioners, and community storytelling facilitators to create the Changing Climate, Changing Health, Changing Stories project, aimed at developing a multi-media participatory, community-run methodological strategy to gather locally appropriate and meaningful data to explore climate-health relationships. The goal of this profile paper is to describe how an EcoHealth approach guided by principles of transdisciplinarity, community participation, and social equity was used to plan and implement this climate-health research project. An overview of the project, including project development, research methods, project outcomes to date, and challenges encountered, is presented. Though introduced in this one case study, the processes, methods, and lessons learned are broadly applicable to researchers and communities interested in implementing EcoHealth approaches in community-based research.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Versprille, Ashley N.; Towns, Marcy H.
2015-01-01
While much is known about secondary students' perspectives of climate change, rather less is known about undergraduate students' perspectives. The purpose of this study is to investigate general chemistry students' understanding of the chemistry underlying climate change. Findings that emerged from the analysis of the 24 interviews indicate that…
Climate Change, Health, and Communication: A Primer.
Chadwick, Amy E
2016-01-01
Climate change is one of the most serious and pervasive challenges facing us today. Our changing climate has implications not only for the ecosystems upon which we depend, but also for human health. Health communication scholars are well-positioned to aid in the mitigation of and response to climate change and its health effects. To help theorists, researchers, and practitioners engage in these efforts, this primer explains relevant issues and vocabulary associated with climate change and its impacts on health. First, this primer provides an overview of climate change, its causes and consequences, and its impacts on health. Then, the primer describes ways to decrease impacts and identifies roles for health communication scholars in efforts to address climate change and its health effects.
Impacts of fine particulate matter on premature mortality under future climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Park, S.; Allen, R.; Lim, C. H.
2016-12-01
Climate change modulates concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) via modifying atmospheric circulation and the hydrological cycle. Furthermore, surface PM2.5 is significantly associated with respiratory diseases and premature mortality. In this study, we assess the response of PM2.5 concentration to climate change in the future (end of 21st century) and its effects on year of life lost (YLL) and premature mortality. We use outputs from five models participating in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) to evaluate climate change effects on PM2.5: for present climate with current aerosol emissions and greenhouse gas concentrations, and for future climate, also with present-day aerosol emissions, but with end-of-the century greenhouse gas concentrations, sea surface temperatures and sea-ice. The results show that climate change is associated with an increase in PM2.5 concentration. Combined with global future population data from the United Nation (UN), we also find an increase in premature mortality and YLL.
Adapting silviculture to a changing climate in the southern United States
James M. Guldin
2014-01-01
Questions about how forests might respond to climate change are often addressed through planning, prediction, and modeling at the landscape scale. A recent synthesis of climate-change impacts on forest management and policy found that the earth is warmer than it has been in the recent past, and that 11 of the last 12 years rank among the 12 warmest since 1850 (Solomon...
The essential interactions between understanding climate variability and climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Neelin, J. D.
2017-12-01
Global change is sometimes perceived as a field separate from other aspects of atmospheric and oceanic sciences. Despite the long history of communication between the scientific communities studying global change and those studying interannual variability and weather, increasing specialization and conflicting societal demands on the fields can put these interactions at risk. At the same time, current trajectories for greenhouse gas emissions imply substantial adaptation to climate change will be necessary. Instead of simply projecting effects to be avoided, the field is increasingly being asked to provide regional-level information for specific adaptation strategies—with associated requirements for increased precision on projections. For extreme events, challenges include validating models for rare events, especially for events that are unprecedented in the historical record. These factors will be illustrated with examples of information transfer to climate change from work on fundamental climate processes aimed originally at timescales from hours to interannual. Work to understand the effects that control probability distributions of moisture, temperature and precipitation in historical weather can yield new factors to examine for the changes in the extremes of these distributions under climate change. Surprisingly simple process models can give insights into the behavior of vastly more complex climate models. Observation systems and model ensembles aimed at weather and interannual variations prove valuable for global change and vice versa. Work on teleconnections in the climate system, such as the remote impacts of El Niño, is informing analysis of projected regional rainfall change over California. Young scientists need to prepare to work across the full spectrum of climate variability and change, and to communicate their findings, as they and our society head for future that is more interesting than optimal.
Australian Secondary School Students' Understanding of Climate Change
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Dawson, Vaille; Carson, Katherine
2013-01-01
This study investigated 438 Year 10 students (15 and 16 years old) from Western Australian schools, on their understanding of the greenhouse effect and climate change, and the sources of their information. Results showed that most students have an understanding of how the greenhouse effect works, however, many students merge the processes of the…
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Silverman, N. L.; Moore, J. N.; Maneta, M. P.
2014-12-01
The majority of watersheds within the United States have been disturbed by anthropogenic land use change. On top of this, there is strong evidence of (historic and projected) climatic changes that affect earth's hydrologic cycle. Streamflow measurements integrate the effects of land use and climate change on watershed hydrology. Therefore, when temporal trends are present, teasing out the cause is challenging due to the overlying climate and land use signals. In this study, we develop an analytical framework for distinguishing trends in streamflow that are driven by climate change from those that are driven by land use change. This framework is based on the theory that during wetter years runoff is affected more by changes in climate than during drier years. Whereas, the inverse is true for land use change. During wetter years runoff is affected less by land use change than during drier years. This difference can be seen in the quantile regression of the 75th and 25th percentile annual stream flows which represent wetter and drier years, respectively. This creates a defining characteristic in how these two forcing mechanisms manifest within the streamflow record. We empirically test this framework and show that the sensitivity of runoff to climate and land use change is uniquely dependent on the spatiotemporal water and energy limitations of a catchment. Finally we apply the framework using 1,566 watersheds across the contiguous United States. We use gages from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) National Water Information System (NWIS) network. The gages are selected because they have continuous and complete data from the years 1950 to 2009 and represent watersheds which are characterized by a range of disturbances. Our results show that the driving mechanisms of streamflow change across the U.S. are regionally coherent and correspond with land management activities and climate zones. This methodology provides a simple means of classifying watershed to
Tools for Teaching Climate Change Studies
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Maestas, A.M.; Jones, L.A.
2005-03-18
The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Climate Research Facility (ACRF) develops public outreach materials and educational resources for schools. Studies prove that science education in rural and indigenous communities improves when educators integrate regional knowledge of climate and environmental issues into school curriculum and public outreach materials. In order to promote understanding of ACRF climate change studies, ACRF Education and Outreach has developed interactive kiosks about climate change for host communities close to the research sites. A kiosk for the North Slope of Alaska (NSA) community was installed at the Iupiat Heritage Center in 2003, and a kiosk for the Tropical Westernmore » Pacific locales will be installed in 2005. The kiosks feature interviews with local community elders, regional agency officials, and Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program scientists, which highlight both research and local observations of some aspects of environmental and climatic change in the Arctic and Pacific. The kiosks offer viewers a unique opportunity to learn about the environmental concerns and knowledge of respected community elders, and to also understand state-of-the-art climate research. An archive of interviews from the communities will also be distributed with supplemental lessons and activities to encourage teachers and students to compare and contrast climate change studies and oral history observations from two distinct locations. The U.S. Department of Energy's ACRF supports education and outreach efforts for communities and schools located near its sites. ACRF Education and Outreach has developed interactive kiosks at the request of the communities to provide an opportunity for the public to learn about climate change from both scientific and indigenous perspectives. Kiosks include interviews with ARM scientists and provide users with basic information about climate change studies as well as interviews with elders and community leaders
Aiding cities in their work on climate change adaptation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hamilton, P.
2013-12-01
Urban areas around the world are at the frontlines of climate change because of their enormous aggregate populations and because of their vulnerability to multiple climate change stressors. Half of our planet's 7.1 billion inhabitants currently reside in cities with six billion people projected to call cities home by 2050. In the U.S. and much of the rest of the world, cities are warming at twice the rate of the planet. Superimposed on urban climate changes driven by global warming are the regional effects of urban heat domes driven by large differences in land use, building materials, and vegetation between cities and their rural surroundings. In megacities - those with populations exceeding 10 million people - such as Tokyo - urban heat domes can contribute to daytime temperatures that soar to more than 11°C higher than their rural surroundings. In addition, the localized warming can alter patterns of precipitation in metropolitan regions and perhaps even influence the frequency and severity of severe weather. Municipal officials need to accelerate their efforts to prepare and implement climate change adaptation strategies but what are the institutions that can help enable this work? Informal science education centers can play vital roles because they are overwhelmingly in urban settings and because they can act as ';competent outsiders.' They are neither responsible for conducting climate change research nor accountable for implementing public policies to address climate change. They instead can play an essential role of ensuring that solid science informs the formulation of good practices and policies. It is incumbent, therefore, for informal science education centers to accelerate and enhance their abilities to help translate scientific insights into on-the-ground actions. This session will explore the potential roles of informal science education centers to advance climate change adaptation through a review of the urban climate change education initiatives
Public Perception of Uncertainties Within Climate Change Science.
Visschers, Vivianne H M
2018-01-01
Climate change is a complex, multifaceted problem involving various interacting systems and actors. Therefore, the intensities, locations, and timeframes of the consequences of climate change are hard to predict and cause uncertainties. Relatively little is known about how the public perceives this scientific uncertainty and how this relates to their concern about climate change. In this article, an online survey among 306 Swiss people is reported that investigated whether people differentiate between different types of uncertainty in climate change research. Also examined was the way in which the perception of uncertainty is related to people's concern about climate change, their trust in science, their knowledge about climate change, and their political attitude. The results of a principal component analysis showed that respondents differentiated between perceived ambiguity in climate research, measurement uncertainty, and uncertainty about the future impact of climate change. Using structural equation modeling, it was found that only perceived ambiguity was directly related to concern about climate change, whereas measurement uncertainty and future uncertainty were not. Trust in climate science was strongly associated with each type of uncertainty perception and was indirectly associated with concern about climate change. Also, more knowledge about climate change was related to less strong perceptions of each type of climate science uncertainty. Hence, it is suggested that to increase public concern about climate change, it may be especially important to consider the perceived ambiguity about climate research. Efforts that foster trust in climate science also appear highly worthwhile. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.
Vulnerability Assessment, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Measures in Slovenia
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cegnar, T.
2010-09-01
In relation to the priority tasks of the climate change measures, the Republic of Slovenia estimates that special attention needs to be devoted to the following sectors in general: - sectors that currently indicate a strong vulnerability for the current climate variability (for instance, agriculture), - sectors where the vulnerability for climate change is increased by current trends (for instance, urban development, use of space), - sectors where the adaptation time is the longest and the subsequent development changes are connected with the highest costs (for instance, use of space, infrastructural objects, forestry, urban development, building stock). Considering the views of Slovenia to the climate change problem in Europe and Slovenia, priority measures and emphasis on future adaptation to climate change, the Republic of Slovenia has especially exposed the following action areas: - sustainable and integrated management of water sources for water power production, prevention of floods, provision of water for the enrichment of low flow rates, and preservation of environmental function as well as provision of water for other needs; - sustainable management of forest ecosystems, adjusted to changes, for the provision of their environmental function as well as being a source of biomass, wood for products for the conservation of carbon, and carbon sinks; - spatial planning as one of the important preventive instruments for the adaptation to climate change through the processes of integral planning of spatial and urban development; - sustainable use and preservation of natural wealth and the preservation of biodiversity as well as ecosystem services with measures and policies that enable an enhanced resistance of ecosystems to climate change, and the role of biological diversity in integral adaptation measures; - informing and awareness on the consequences of climate change and adaptation possibilities. For years, the most endangered sectors have been agriculture and