Current and Emerging Ethical Issues in Counseling: A Delphi Study of Expert Opinions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Herlihy, Barbara; Dufrene, Roxane L.

2011-01-01

A Delphi study was conducted to ascertain the opinions of panel experts regarding the most important current and emerging ethical issues facing the counseling profession. Expert opinions on ethical issues in counselor preparation also were sought. Eighteen panelists responded to 3 rounds of data collection interspersed with feedback. Themes that…

Using expert opinion to evaluate a habitat effectiveness model for elk in western Oregon and Washington.

Treesearch

Richard S. Holthausen; Michael J. Wisdom; John Pierce; Daniel K. Edwards; Mary M. Rowland

1994-01-01

We used expert opinion to evaluate the predictive reliability of a habitat effectiveness model for elk in western Oregon and Washington. Twenty-five experts in elk ecology were asked to rate habitat quality for 16 example landscapes. Rankings and ratings of 21 experts were significantly correlated with model output. Expert opinion and model predictions differed for 4...

Expert opinion paper on atrial fibrillation detection after ischemic stroke.

PubMed

Haeusler, Karl Georg; Gröschel, Klaus; Köhrmann, Martin; Anker, Stefan D; Brachmann, Johannes; Böhm, Michael; Diener, Hans-Christoph; Doehner, Wolfram; Endres, Matthias; Gerloff, Christian; Huttner, Hagen B; Kaps, Manfred; Kirchhof, Paulus; Nabavi, Darius Günther; Nolte, Christian H; Pfeilschifter, Waltraud; Pieske, Burkert; Poli, Sven; Schäbitz, Wolf Rüdiger; Thomalla, Götz; Veltkamp, Roland; Steiner, Thorsten; Laufs, Ulrich; Röther, Joachim; Wachter, Rolf; Schnabel, Renate

2018-04-27

This expert opinion paper on atrial fibrillation detection after ischemic stroke includes a statement of the "Heart and Brain" consortium of the German Cardiac Society and the German Stroke Society. This paper was endorsed by the Stroke Unit-Commission of the German Stroke Society and the German Atrial Fibrillation NETwork. In patients with ischemic stroke, detection of atrial fibrillation should usually lead to a change in secondary stroke prevention, since oral anticoagulation is superior to antiplatelet drugs. The detection of previously undiagnosed atrial fibrillation can be improved in patients with ischemic stroke to optimize stroke prevention. This paper summarizes the present knowledge on atrial fibrillation detection after ischemic stroke. We propose an interdisciplinary standard for a "structured analysis of ECG monitoring" on the stroke unit as well as a staged diagnostic scheme for the detection of atrial fibrillation. Since the optimal duration and mode of ECG monitoring has not yet been finally established, this paper is intended to give advice to physicians who are involved in stroke care. In line with the nature of an expert opinion paper, labeling of classes of recommendations is not provided, since many statements are based on the expert opinion, reported case series and clinical experience. Therefore, this paper is not intended as a guideline.

Using expert opinion to quantify unmeasured confounding bias parameters.

PubMed

Navadeh, Soodabeh; Mirzazadeh, Ali; McFarland, Willi; Woolf-King, Sarah; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali

2016-06-27

To develop and apply a method to quantify bias parameters in the case example of the association between alcohol use and HIV-serodiscordant condomless anal sex with potential confounding by sensation seeking among men who have sex with men (MSM), using expert opinion as an external data source. Through an online survey, we sought the input of 41 epidemiologist and behavioural scientists to quantify six parameters in the population of MSM: the proportion of high sensation seeking among heavy-drinking MSM, the proportion of sensation seeking among low-level drinking MSM, and the risk ratio (RR) of the association between sensation seeking and condomless anal sex, for HIV-positive and HIV-negative MSM. Eleven experts responded. For HIV-positive heavy drinkers, the proportion of high sensation seeking was 53.6% (beta distribution [α=5.50, β=4.78]), and 41.1% (beta distribution [α=3.10, β=4.46]) in HIV-negative heavy drinkers. In HIV-positive low-level alcohol drinkers, high sensation seeking was 26.9% (beta distribution [α=1.81, β=4.92]), similar to high sensation seeking among HIV-negative low-level alcohol drinkers (25.3%) (beta distribution [α=2.00, β=5.89]). The lnRR for the association between sensation seeking and condomless anal sex was ln(2.4) (normal distribution [μ=0.889, σ=0.438]) in HIV-positive and ln(1.5) (normal distribution [μ=0.625, σ=0.391]) in HIV-negative MSM. Expert opinion can be a simple and efficient method for deriving bias parameters to quantify and adjust for hypothesized confounding. In this test case, expert opinion confirmed sensation seeking as a confounder for the effect of alcohol on condomless anal sex and provided the parameters necessary for probabilistic bias analysis.

Survey of Expert Opinion on Intelligence: Causes of International Differences in Cognitive Ability Tests

PubMed Central

Rindermann, Heiner; Becker, David; Coyle, Thomas R.

2016-01-01

Following Snyderman and Rothman (1987, 1988), we surveyed expert opinions on the current state of intelligence research. This report examines expert opinions on causes of international differences in student assessment and psychometric IQ test results. Experts were surveyed about the importance of culture, genes, education (quantity and quality), wealth, health, geography, climate, politics, modernization, sampling error, test knowledge, discrimination, test bias, and migration. The importance of these factors was evaluated for diverse countries, regions, and groups including Finland, East Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, Southern Europe, the Arabian-Muslim world, Latin America, Israel, Jews in the West, Roma (gypsies), and Muslim immigrants. Education was rated by N = 71 experts as the most important cause of international ability differences. Genes were rated as the second most relevant factor but also had the highest variability in ratings. Culture, health, wealth, modernization, and politics were the next most important factors, whereas other factors such as geography, climate, test bias, and sampling error were less important. The paper concludes with a discussion of limitations of the survey (e.g., response rates and validity of expert opinions). PMID:27047425

Expert Opinion Is Necessary: Delphi Panel Methodology Facilitates a Scientific Approach to Consensus.

PubMed

Hohmann, Erik; Brand, Jefferson C; Rossi, Michael J; Lubowitz, James H

2018-02-01

Our current trend and focus on evidence-based medicine is biased in favor of randomized controlled trials, which are ranked highest in the hierarchy of evidence while devaluing expert opinion, which is ranked lowest in the hierarchy. However, randomized controlled trials have weaknesses as well as strengths, and no research method is flawless. Moreover, stringent application of scientific research techniques, such as the Delphi Panel methodology, allows survey of experts in a high quality and scientific manner. Level V evidence (expert opinion) remains a necessary component in the armamentarium used to determine the answer to a clinical question. Copyright © 2017 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The influence of expert opinions on the selection of wastewater treatment alternatives: a group decision-making approach.

PubMed

Kalbar, Pradip P; Karmakar, Subhankar; Asolekar, Shyam R

2013-10-15

The application of multiple-attribute decision-making (MADM) to real life decision problems suggests that avoiding the loss of information through scenario-based approaches and including expert opinions in the decision-making process are two major challenges that require more research efforts. Recently, a wastewater treatment technology selection effort has been made with a 'scenario-based' method of MADM. This paper focuses on a novel approach to incorporate expert opinions into the scenario-based decision-making process, as expert opinions play a major role in the selection of treatment technologies. The sets of criteria and the indicators that are used consist of both qualitative and quantitative criteria. The group decision-making (GDM) approach that is implemented for aggregating expert opinions is based on an analytical hierarchy process (AHP), which is the most widely used MADM method. The pairwise comparison matrices (PCMs) for qualitative criteria are formed based on expert opinions, whereas, a novel approach is proposed for generating PCMs for quantitative criteria. It has been determined that the experts largely prefer natural treatment systems because they are more sustainable in any scenario. However, PCMs based on expert opinions suggest that advanced technologies such as the sequencing batch reactor (SBR) can also be appropriate for a given decision scenario. The proposed GDM approach is a rationalized process that will be more appropriate in realistic scenarios where multiple stakeholders with local and regional societal priorities are involved in the selection of treatment technology. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Common problems in the elicitation and analysis of expert opinion affecting probabilistic safety assessments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M.

1990-01-01

Expert opinion is frequently used in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), particularly in estimating low probability events. In this paper, we discuss some of the common problems encountered in eliciting and analyzing expert opinion data and offer solutions or recommendations. The problems are: that experts are not naturally Bayesian. People fail to update their existing information to account for new information as it becomes available, as would be predicted by the Bayesian philosophy; that experts cannot be fully calibrated. To calibrate experts, the feedback from the known quantities must be immediate, frequent, and specific to the task; that experts are limitedmore » in the number of things that they can mentally juggle at a time to 7 {plus minus} 2; that data gatherers and analysts can introduce bias by unintentionally causing an altering of the expert's thinking or answers; that the level of detail the data, or granularity, can affect the analyses; and the conditioning effect poses difficulties in gathering and analyzing of the expert data. The data that the expert gives can be conditioned on a variety of factors that can affect the analysis and the interpretation of the results. 31 refs.« less

Short-term Forecasting of the Prevalence of Trachoma: Expert Opinion, Statistical Regression, versus Transmission Models.

PubMed

Liu, Fengchen; Porco, Travis C; Amza, Abdou; Kadri, Boubacar; Nassirou, Baido; West, Sheila K; Bailey, Robin L; Keenan, Jeremy D; Solomon, Anthony W; Emerson, Paul M; Gambhir, Manoj; Lietman, Thomas M

2015-08-01

Trachoma programs rely on guidelines made in large part using expert opinion of what will happen with and without intervention. Large community-randomized trials offer an opportunity to actually compare forecasting methods in a masked fashion. The Program for the Rapid Elimination of Trachoma trials estimated longitudinal prevalence of ocular chlamydial infection from 24 communities treated annually with mass azithromycin. Given antibiotic coverage and biannual assessments from baseline through 30 months, forecasts of the prevalence of infection in each of the 24 communities at 36 months were made by three methods: the sum of 15 experts' opinion, statistical regression of the square-root-transformed prevalence, and a stochastic hidden Markov model of infection transmission (Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible, or SIS model). All forecasters were masked to the 36-month results and to the other forecasts. Forecasts of the 24 communities were scored by the likelihood of the observed results and compared using Wilcoxon's signed-rank statistic. Regression and SIS hidden Markov models had significantly better likelihood than community expert opinion (p = 0.004 and p = 0.01, respectively). All forecasts scored better when perturbed to decrease Fisher's information. Each individual expert's forecast was poorer than the sum of experts. Regression and SIS models performed significantly better than expert opinion, although all forecasts were overly confident. Further model refinements may score better, although would need to be tested and compared in new masked studies. Construction of guidelines that rely on forecasting future prevalence could consider use of mathematical and statistical models. Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00792922.

Expert opinion on "best practices" in the delivery of health care services to immigrants in Denmark.

PubMed

Jensen, Natasja Koitzsch; Nielsen, Signe Smith; Krasnik, Allan

2010-08-01

Delivery of health care to immigrants is an emerging field of interest. Immigrants are frequently characterised by health outcomes that are inferior to those of other groups with regard to morbidity and mortality. In addition, health professionals report difficulties associated with the encounter with immigrant patients. A Delphi process with eight Danish experts from the field of immigrant health was performed as part of an EU project. The objective of the Delphi process was to investigate expert opinion on "best practice in the delivery of healthcare to immigrants". Initially, 60 factors were suggested by the experts. Next, these factors were summarised into 32 factors that the experts were invited to rate and, if possible, agree on. The top 11 factors identified in the Delphi process were access to interpreters, quality of interpretation, ensuring medication compliance, having sufficient consultation time, coherence of offers, interdisciplinary collaboration, allocation of resources, the role of the practitioner, acknowledgement of the individual patient, education of health professionals and students and access to telephone interpretation to supplement other services. The Delphi process can be a valuable tool in the investigation of expert opinion and may thereby help to guide future policy directives. In the light of the importance experts placed on access to interpreters and on the quality of the interpretation services offered, it seems as an untenable strategy to introduce as from June 2011 self-payment for interpretation services provided to immigrants who have stayed in the country for more than seven years.

[Legal quality criteria of expert opinions in liability for medical malpractice].

PubMed

Neu, Johann

2017-09-01

In litigation regarding to liability for medical malpractice the court itself for lack of medical expert knowledge cannot judge a claimed error in treatment. That applies too for the question if there is causation between the error in treatment and claimed damage to patient's health. In this respect, the court is dependent on a medical expert and is bound to his assessment, unless there is no quality deficit in respect of medical and/or legal criteria. The more the medical expert knows the legal background of physician's liability for medical malpractice, the less is the risk of legal quality deficits in his expert opinion and thereby also of judicial errors by court. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Scratching the surface of tomorrow's diagnostics: the Editor-in-Chief's opinion at the 15th year of Expert Review of Molecular Diagnostics.

PubMed

Lorincz, Attila; Raison, Claire

2015-01-01

Interview with Attila Lorincz by Claire Raison (Commissioning Editor) To mark the beginning of the 15th year of Expert Review of Molecular Diagnostics, the journal's Editor-in-Chief shares his expert knowledge on translational diagnostics, his opinion on recent controversies and his predictions for molecular diagnostics in 2015 and beyond. Attila Lorincz received his doctorate from Trinity College, Dublin, Republic of Ireland, and went on to become a research fellow at the University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, USA. During Professor Lorincz's research on human papillomavirus (HPV), he found several important and novel carcinogenic HPV types and pioneered the use of HPV DNA testing for clinical diagnostics. In 1988, Professor Lorincz's team produced the first HPV test to be FDA-approved for patients and in 2003, for general population cervical precancer screening. Now Professor of Molecular Epidemiology at the Centre for Cancer Prevention, Queen Mary University of London, UK, he and his team are furthering translational research into DNA methylation assays for cancer risk prediction.

6 CFR 5.49 - Prohibition on providing expert or opinion testimony.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 6 Domestic Security 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Prohibition on providing expert or opinion testimony. 5.49 Section 5.49 Domestic Security DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY, OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY DISCLOSURE OF RECORDS AND INFORMATION Disclosure of Information in Litigation § 5.49 Prohibition on providing...

Short-term Forecasting of the Prevalence of Trachoma: Expert Opinion, Statistical Regression, versus Transmission Models

PubMed Central

Liu, Fengchen; Porco, Travis C.; Amza, Abdou; Kadri, Boubacar; Nassirou, Baido; West, Sheila K.; Bailey, Robin L.; Keenan, Jeremy D.; Solomon, Anthony W.; Emerson, Paul M.; Gambhir, Manoj; Lietman, Thomas M.

2015-01-01

Background Trachoma programs rely on guidelines made in large part using expert opinion of what will happen with and without intervention. Large community-randomized trials offer an opportunity to actually compare forecasting methods in a masked fashion. Methods The Program for the Rapid Elimination of Trachoma trials estimated longitudinal prevalence of ocular chlamydial infection from 24 communities treated annually with mass azithromycin. Given antibiotic coverage and biannual assessments from baseline through 30 months, forecasts of the prevalence of infection in each of the 24 communities at 36 months were made by three methods: the sum of 15 experts’ opinion, statistical regression of the square-root-transformed prevalence, and a stochastic hidden Markov model of infection transmission (Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible, or SIS model). All forecasters were masked to the 36-month results and to the other forecasts. Forecasts of the 24 communities were scored by the likelihood of the observed results and compared using Wilcoxon’s signed-rank statistic. Findings Regression and SIS hidden Markov models had significantly better likelihood than community expert opinion (p = 0.004 and p = 0.01, respectively). All forecasts scored better when perturbed to decrease Fisher’s information. Each individual expert’s forecast was poorer than the sum of experts. Interpretation Regression and SIS models performed significantly better than expert opinion, although all forecasts were overly confident. Further model refinements may score better, although would need to be tested and compared in new masked studies. Construction of guidelines that rely on forecasting future prevalence could consider use of mathematical and statistical models. PMID:26302380

Development of the Paris definition of early Crohn's disease for disease-modification trials: results of an international expert opinion process.

PubMed

Peyrin-Biroulet, Laurent; Billioud, Vincent; D'Haens, Geert; Panaccione, Remo; Feagan, Brian; Panés, Julian; Danese, Silvio; Schreiber, Stefan; Ogata, Haruhiko; Hibi, Toshifumi; Higgins, Peter D R; Beaugerie, Laurent; Chowers, Yehuda; Louis, Edouard; Steinwurz, Flávio; Reinisch, Walter; Rutgeerts, Paul; Colombel, Jean-Frédéric; Travis, Simon; Sandborn, William J

2012-12-01

We report the findings and outputs of an international expert opinion process to develop a definition of early Crohn's disease (CD) that could be used in future disease-modification trials. Nineteen experts on inflammatory bowel diseases held an international expert opinion meeting to discuss and agree on a definition for early CD to be used in disease-modification trials. The process included literature searches for the relevant basic-science and clinical evidence. A published preliminary definition of early CD was used as the basis for development of a proposed definition that was discussed at the expert opinion meeting. The participants then derived a final definition, based on best current knowledge, that it is hoped will be of practical use in disease-modification trials in CD.

Classification of Word Levels with Usage Frequency, Expert Opinions and Machine Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sohsah, Gihad N.; Ünal, Muhammed Esad; Güzey, Onur

2015-01-01

Educational applications for language teaching can utilize the language levels of words to target proficiency levels of students. This paper and the accompanying data provide a methodology for making educational standard-aligned language-level predictions for all English words. The methodology involves expert opinions on language levels and…

Can journalistic "false balance" distort public perception of consensus in expert opinion?

PubMed

Koehler, Derek J

2016-03-01

Media critics have expressed concern that journalistic "false balance" can distort the public's perceptions of what ought to be noncontroversial subjects (e.g., climate change). I report several experiments testing the influence of presenting conflicting comments from 2 experts who disagree on an issue (balance condition) in addition to a complete count of the number of experts on a panel who favor either side. Compared with a control condition, who received only the complete count, participants in the balance condition gave ratings of the perceived agreement among the experts that did not discriminate as clearly between issues with and without strong expert consensus. Participants in the balance condition also perceived less agreement among the experts in general, and were less likely to think that there was enough agreement among experts on the high-consensus issues to guide government policy. Evidently, "false balance" can distort perceptions of expert opinion even when participants would seem to have all the information needed to correct for its influence. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Causality Assessment in Drug-Induced Liver Injury Using a Structured Expert Opinion Process: Comparison to the Roussel-Uclaf Causality Assessment Method

PubMed Central

Rockey, Don C.; Seeff, Leonard B.; Rochon, James; Freston, James; Chalasani, Naga; Bonacini, Maurizio; Fontana, Robert J.; Hayashi, Paul H.

2011-01-01

Drug-induced liver injury (DILI) is largely a diagnosis of exclusion and is therefore challenging. The US Drug-Induced Liver Injury Network (DILIN) prospective study used two methods to assess DILI causality: a structured expert opinion process and the Roussel-Uclaf Causality Assessment Method (RUCAM). Causality assessment focused on detailed clinical and laboratory data from patients with suspected DILI. The adjudication process used standardized numerical and descriptive definitions and scored cases as definite, highly likely, probable, possible, or unlikely. Results of the structured expert opinion procedure were compared with those derived by the RUCAM approach. Among 250 patients with suspected DILI, the expert opinion adjudication process scored 78 patients (31%) as definite, 102 (41%) as highly likely, 37 (15%) as probable, 25 (10%) as possible, and 8 (3%) as unlikely. Among 187 enrollees who had received a single implicated drug, initial complete agreement was reached for 50 (27%) with the expert opinion process and for 34 (19%) with a five-category RUCAM scale (P = 0.08), and the two methods demonstrated a modest correlation with each other (Spearman's r = 0.42, P = 0.0001). Importantly, the RUCAM approach substantially shifted the causality likelihood toward lower probabilities in comparison with the DILIN expert opinion process. Conclusion The structured DILIN expert opinion process produced higher agreement rates and likelihood scores than RUCAM in assessing causality, but there was still considerable interobserver variability in both. Accordingly, a more objective, reliable, and reproducible means of assessing DILI causality is still needed. PMID:20512999

Expert opinions on success factors for upper-limb prostheses.

PubMed

Schultz, Aimee E; Baade, Susan P; Kuiken, Todd A

2007-01-01

The goal of this study was to gather the opinions of prosthetics experts on the most important factors for the successful use of upper-limb (UL) prostheses, compare them with those of prosthesis users, and ultimately direct research efforts in this field. UL prosthetics experts were asked to compare the importance of the comfort, function, and cosmesis of a prosthetic device for a transhumeral amputee. Categories were subdivided into weight, socket-interface comfort, power, agility, color, and shape. The majority of those who responded viewed comfort as the most important factor for a unilateral amputee and considered socket-interface comfort to be more important than weight. Function was considered to be the most important factor for a bilateral amputee, with agility considered more important than power. Cosmesis was consistently reported as being less important than comfort and function, and shape was considered more important than color.

[Giving medico-legal opinions in cases with suspicion of medical mistake. part 2. Expert evidence in cases with suspicion of medical mistake - expectations, possibilities, threats…].

PubMed

Chowaniec, Czesław; Chowaniec, Małgorzata; Wilk, Mateusz

Problems of medical mistake and therapeutic failure are inextricably linked with realization of medical services. In recent years, mostly by the media and increasing demanding attitude, a rapid increase of initiated cases opened by judicial body in conjunction with medical mistake made by medical staff is observed. Making medico-legal opinions is not easy task and often face many difficulties. These consist of lacks in medical documentation, time rigor, formal tightening and need to create team that consist of both forensic medicine specialist and clinicians, who together shall write complex medico-legal opinion. This article touches the essence of the opinion-making problem in the aspect of medical mistake. It shows specifics of the role of forensic medicine specialist, his challenges and difficulties in creating opinions. The article confronts real possibilities of court experts with expectations of judicial body, outlining new challenges and dangers which court experts have to face.

Active Surveillance for Low and Intermediate Risk Prostate Cancer: Opinions of North American Genitourinary Oncology Expert Radiation Oncologists.

PubMed

McClelland, Shearwood; Sandler, Kiri A; Degnin, Catherine; Chen, Yiyi; Mitin, Timur

2018-04-01

The ProtecT trial has provided level 1 evidence supporting active surveillance for prostate cancer patients with low-risk and intermediate-risk disease. The effect of these findings on the opinions of North American genitourinary (GU) experts regarding the role of active surveillance for these patients has not been previously examined. A survey was distributed to 88 practicing North American GU physicians serving on decision-making committees of cooperative group research organizations. Questions pertained to appropriateness of active surveillance in patients with low-risk and intermediate-risk (Gleason 3+4) disease. Opinions regarding active surveillance were correlated with practice patterns using Fisher exact test. Forty-two radiation oncologists completed the survey. Forty percent had been in practice for more than 20 years; 90% practice at an academic center. Forty-five percent see ≥ 20 patients per month in consultation. More than 95% (40 of 42) recommended active surveillance for Gleason 6 disease, whereas only 17% recommended active surveillance for Gleason 3+4 disease. There were no demographic differences between supporters or opponents regarding active surveillance with regard to monthly patient volume, practice type, likelihood of self-identifying as an expert brachytherapist, belief in advanced imaging techniques, or preferred default external beam radiation therapy dose/fractionation for either low-risk or intermediate-risk disease. However, there was a trend toward greater support of active surveillance for Gleason 3+4 disease among experts having practiced < 10 years versus ≥ 10 years (P = .085). Active surveillance is almost universally supported by North American GU expert radiation oncologists for low-risk prostate cancer. However, there is very weak support for this strategy in Gleason 3+4 disease despite the ProtecT trial providing level 1 evidentiary support in both risk groups. There were no significant differences between experts

Using expert opinion surveys to rank threats to endangered species: a case study with sea turtles.

PubMed

Donlan, C Josh; Wingfield, Dana K; Crowder, Larry B; Wilcox, Chris

2010-12-01

Little is known about how specific anthropogenic hazards affect the biology of organisms. Quantifying the effect of regional hazards is particularly challenging for species such as sea turtles because they are migratory, difficult to study, long lived, and face multiple anthropogenic threats. Expert elicitation, a technique used to synthesize opinions of experts while assessing uncertainty around those views, has been in use for several decades in the social science and risk assessment sectors. We conducted an internet-based survey to quantify expert opinion on the relative magnitude of anthropogenic hazards to sea turtle populations at the regional level. Fisheries bycatch and coastal development were most often ranked as the top hazards to sea turtle species in a geographic region. Nest predation and direct take followed as the second and third greatest threats, respectively. Survey results suggest most experts believe sea turtles are threatened by multiple factors, including substantial at-sea threats such as fisheries bycatch. Resources invested by the sea turtle community, however, appear biased toward terrestrial-based impacts. Results from the survey are useful for conservation planning because they provide estimates of relative impacts of hazards on sea turtles and a measure of consensus on the magnitude of those impacts among researchers and practitioners. Our survey results also revealed patterns of expert bias, which we controlled for in our analysis. Respondents with no experience with respect to a sea turtle species tended to rank hazards affecting that sea turtle species higher than respondents with experience. A more-striking pattern was with hazard-based expertise: the more experience a respondent had with a specific hazard, the higher the respondent scored the impact of that hazard on sea turtle populations. Bias-controlled expert opinion surveys focused on threatened species and their hazards can help guide and expedite species recovery plans. �

Drug exposure in register-based research—An expert-opinion based evaluation of methods

PubMed Central

Taipale, Heidi; Koponen, Marjaana; Tolppanen, Anna-Maija; Hartikainen, Sirpa; Ahonen, Riitta; Tiihonen, Jari

2017-01-01

Background In register-based pharmacoepidemiological studies, construction of drug exposure periods from drug purchases is a major methodological challenge. Various methods have been applied but their validity is rarely evaluated. Our objective was to conduct an expert-opinion based evaluation of the correctness of drug use periods produced by different methods. Methods Drug use periods were calculated with three fixed methods: time windows, assumption of one Defined Daily Dose (DDD) per day and one tablet per day, and with PRE2DUP that is based on modelling of individual drug purchasing behavior. Expert-opinion based evaluation was conducted with 200 randomly selected purchase histories of warfarin, bisoprolol, simvastatin, risperidone and mirtazapine in the MEDALZ-2005 cohort (28,093 persons with Alzheimer’s disease). Two experts reviewed purchase histories and judged which methods had joined correct purchases and gave correct duration for each of 1000 drug exposure periods. Results The evaluated correctness of drug use periods was 70–94% for PRE2DUP, and depending on grace periods and time window lengths 0–73% for tablet methods, 0–41% for DDD methods and 0–11% for time window methods. The highest rate of evaluated correct solutions for each method class were observed for 1 tablet per day with 180 days grace period (TAB_1_180, 43–73%), and 1 DDD per day with 180 days grace period (1–41%). Time window methods produced at maximum only 11% correct solutions. The best performing fixed method TAB_1_180 reached highest correctness for simvastatin 73% (95% CI 65–81%) whereas 89% (95% CI 84–94%) of PRE2DUP periods were judged as correct. Conclusions This study shows inaccuracy of fixed methods and the urgent need for new data-driven methods. In the expert-opinion based evaluation, the lowest error rates were observed with data-driven method PRE2DUP. PMID:28886089

[Adolescent arsonists--psychodynamics, family dynamics and attempt at framing a typology based on 40 expert opinions].

PubMed

Klosinski, G; Bertsch, S L

2001-02-01

Psychiatric, psychological and medical data of 40 adolescent firesetters are obtained from a retrospective analysis of expert opinions which have been drawn up by the Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry in Tübingen over a period of 16 years (1981-1997). This analysis mainly focusses on the patients' physical and psychosexual development, their social integration and competence and their family dynamics. It further concentrates on the psychic situation at the time of the offense, the reasons and motives given for firesetting (by the patient and by the expert) and specific psychological test results. According to the results three different characteristic groups can be found: 1st a group of offenders who have set fires to their parents' house, 2nd firesetters being member of the firebrigade, and 3rd an unspecific inhomogeneous group of firesetters.

On Consistency Test Method of Expert Opinion in Ecological Security Assessment.

PubMed

Gong, Zaiwu; Wang, Lihong

2017-09-04

To reflect the initiative design and initiative of human security management and safety warning, ecological safety assessment is of great value. In the comprehensive evaluation of regional ecological security with the participation of experts, the expert's individual judgment level, ability and the consistency of the expert's overall opinion will have a very important influence on the evaluation result. This paper studies the consistency measure and consensus measure based on the multiplicative and additive consistency property of fuzzy preference relation (FPR). We firstly propose the optimization methods to obtain the optimal multiplicative consistent and additively consistent FPRs of individual and group judgments, respectively. Then, we put forward a consistency measure by computing the distance between the original individual judgment and the optimal individual estimation, along with a consensus measure by computing the distance between the original collective judgment and the optimal collective estimation. In the end, we make a case study on ecological security for five cities. Result shows that the optimal FPRs are helpful in measuring the consistency degree of individual judgment and the consensus degree of collective judgment.

Climate Change and Infectious Disease Risk in Western Europe: A Survey of Dutch Expert Opinion on Adaptation Responses and Actors.

PubMed

Akin, Su-Mia; Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud M T E

2015-08-18

There is growing evidence of climate change affecting infectious disease risk in Western Europe. The call for effective adaptation to this challenge becomes increasingly stronger. This paper presents the results of a survey exploring Dutch expert perspectives on adaptation responses to climate change impacts on infectious disease risk in Western Europe. Additionally, the survey explores the expert sample's prioritization of mitigation and adaptation, and expert views on the willingness and capacity of relevant actors to respond to climate change. An integrated view on the causation of infectious disease risk is employed, including multiple (climatic and non-climatic) factors. The results show that the experts consider some adaptation responses as relatively more cost-effective, like fostering interagency and community partnerships, or beneficial to health, such as outbreak investigation and response. Expert opinions converge and diverge for different adaptation responses. Regarding the prioritization of mitigation and adaptation responses expert perspectives converge towards a 50/50 budgetary allocation. The experts consider the national government/health authority as the most capable actor to respond to climate change-induced infectious disease risk. Divergence and consensus among expert opinions can influence adaptation policy processes. Further research is necessary to uncover prevailing expert perspectives and their roots, and compare these.

Climate Change and Infectious Disease Risk in Western Europe: A Survey of Dutch Expert Opinion on Adaptation Responses and Actors

PubMed Central

Akin, Su-Mia; Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud M.T.E.

2015-01-01

There is growing evidence of climate change affecting infectious disease risk in Western Europe. The call for effective adaptation to this challenge becomes increasingly stronger. This paper presents the results of a survey exploring Dutch expert perspectives on adaptation responses to climate change impacts on infectious disease risk in Western Europe. Additionally, the survey explores the expert sample’s prioritization of mitigation and adaptation, and expert views on the willingness and capacity of relevant actors to respond to climate change. An integrated view on the causation of infectious disease risk is employed, including multiple (climatic and non-climatic) factors. The results show that the experts consider some adaptation responses as relatively more cost-effective, like fostering interagency and community partnerships, or beneficial to health, such as outbreak investigation and response. Expert opinions converge and diverge for different adaptation responses. Regarding the prioritization of mitigation and adaptation responses expert perspectives converge towards a 50/50 budgetary allocation. The experts consider the national government/health authority as the most capable actor to respond to climate change-induced infectious disease risk. Divergence and consensus among expert opinions can influence adaptation policy processes. Further research is necessary to uncover prevailing expert perspectives and their roots, and compare these. PMID:26295247

Management of cytotoxic extravasation - ASORS expert opinion for diagnosis, prevention and treatment.

PubMed

de Wit, Maike; Ortner, Petra; Lipp, Hans-Peter; Sehouli, Jalid; Untch, Michael; Ruhnke, Markus; Mayer-Steinacker, Regine; Bokemeyer, Carsten; Jordan, Karin

2013-01-01

Cytotoxic extravasation is a rare but potentially serious and painful complication of intravenous drug administration in oncology. Literature is anecdotal, and systematic clinical trials are scarce. The German working group for Supportive Care in Cancer (ASORS) has prepared an expert opinion for the diagnosis, prophylaxis and management of cytotoxic extravasation based on an interdisciplinary expert panel. A Pubmed search was conducted for diagnosis, risk factors, symptoms, prophylaxis, and treatment of extravasation by the respective responsible expert. A writing committee compiled the manuscript and proposed the level of recommendation. In a consensus meeting, 13 experts reviewed and discussed the current practice in diagnosis and management of cytotoxic extravasation. In a telephone voting among the experts, the level of recommendation by ASORS was determined. Every effort should be made to reduce the risk of extravasation. Staff training, patient education, usage of right materials and infusion techniques have been identified to be mandatory to minimalize the risk of extravasation. Extravasation must be diagnosed as soon as possible, and specific therapy including antidotes dependent on the extravasated drug should be initiated immediately. An extravasation emergency set should be available wherever intravenous cytotoxics are applied. Documentation and post-treatment follow-up are recommended. We have developed a literature- and expert-based consensus recommendation to avoid cytotoxic extravasation. It also provides practical management instructions which should help to avoid surgery and serious late effects. Copyright © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Experts' opinions on terminology for complementary and integrative medicine - a qualitative study with leading experts.

PubMed

Holmberg, Christine; Brinkhaus, Benno; Witt, Claudia

2012-11-14

Integrative medicine (IM) is currently the most commonly used term to describe the integration of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) into conventional medicine. In the definitions of IM the most important feature is the focus on evidence as crucial factor for therapeutic decision-making. However, there are discussions on the term "integrative medicine" with the most notable critique from within CAM that it describes the integration of complementary methods into conventional institutions and into a "conventional framework of thinking". The aim of this qualitative study was to understand the thoughts of leading experts on IM and on the scientific debate in the field as well as their personal opinions about terminology in general. We have conducted semi-standardized interviews with ten leading experts in the field of CAM and integrative medicine in the USA, England, and Germany, who have had leading positions at medical schools or the NIH in 2010 and 2011. Interviews were recorded, transcribed and analyzed using content analysis with the qualitative analysis software maxqda. Overall the current terminology was seen as a problem, although most experts agreed that the term "integrative medicine" (IM) described well what they do or they think is useful for medical care. The terminology debate was discussed from four perspectives: 1) from the perspective of medical practice, 2) from the perspective of research, 3) from the perspective of public relations, and 4) from the perspective of health care delivery. These perspectives may be used to evaluate the appropriateness of different terms in use in the field. When interviewees discussed the terminology question, they also discussed the type of health care system they envisioned. Such reflections led the interviewees to caution about too narrow a focus on the terminology question. The question of naming was one about influencing and changing medicine. The discussion of the experts demonstrated that the discussion

Expert Opinions on Improving Femicide Data Collection across Europe: A Concept Mapping Study.

PubMed

Vives-Cases, Carmen; Goicolea, Isabel; Hernández, Alison; Sanz-Barbero, Belen; Gill, Aisha K; Baldry, Anna Costanza; Schröttle, Monika; Stöckl, Heidi; Stoeckl, Heidi

2016-01-01

Femicide, defined as the killings of females by males because they are females, is becoming recognized worldwide as an important ongoing manifestation of gender inequality. Despite its high prevalence or widespread prevalence, only a few countries have specific registries about this issue. This study aims to assemble expert opinion regarding the strategies which might feasibly be employed to promote, develop and implement an integrated and differentiated femicide data collection system in Europe at both the national and international levels. Concept mapping methodology was followed, involving 28 experts from 16 countries in generating strategies, sorting and rating them with respect to relevance and feasibility. The experts involved were all members of the EU-Cost-Action on femicide, which is a scientific network of experts on femicide and violence against women across Europe. As a result, a conceptual map emerged, consisting of 69 strategies organized in 10 clusters, which fit into two domains: "Political action" and "Technical steps". There was consensus among participants regarding the high relevance of strategies to institutionalize national databases and raise public awareness through different stakeholders, while strategies to promote media involvement were identified as the most feasible. Differences in perceived priorities according to the level of human development index of the experts' countries were also observed.

Expert opinion as 'validation' of risk assessment applied to calf welfare.

PubMed

Bracke, Marc B M; Edwards, Sandra A; Engel, Bas; Buist, Willem G; Algers, Bo

2008-07-14

Recently, a Risk Assessment methodology was applied to animal welfare issues in a report of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) on intensively housed calves. Because this is a new and potentially influential approach to derive conclusions on animal welfare issues, a so-called semantic-modelling type 'validation' study was conducted by asking expert scientists, who had been involved or quoted in the report, to give welfare scores for housing systems and for welfare hazards. Kendall's coefficient of concordance among experts (n = 24) was highly significant (P < 0.001), but low (0.29 and 0.18 for housing systems and hazards respectively). Overall correlations with EFSA scores were significant only for experts with a veterinary or mixed (veterinary and applied ethological) background. Significant differences in welfare scores were found between housing systems, between hazards, and between experts with different backgrounds. For example, veterinarians gave higher overall welfare scores for housing systems than ethologists did, probably reflecting a difference in their perception of animal welfare. Systems with the lowest scores were veal calves kept individually in so-called "baby boxes" (veal crates) or in small groups, and feedlots. A suckler herd on pasture was rated as the best for calf welfare. The main hazards were related to underfeeding, inadequate colostrum intake, poor stockperson education, insufficient space, inadequate roughage, iron deficiency, inadequate ventilation, poor floor conditions and no bedding. Points for improvement of the Risk Assessment applied to animal welfare include linking information, reporting uncertainty and transparency about underlying values. The study provides novel information on expert opinion in relation to calf welfare and shows that Risk Assessment applied to animal welfare can benefit from a semantic modelling approach.

The effect of case-based discussion of topics with experts on learners' opinions: implications for spinal education and training.

PubMed

Berjano, Pedro; Villafañe, Jorge Hugo; Vanacker, Gerard; Cecchinato, Riccardo; Ismael, Maryem; Gunzburg, Robert; Marruzzo, Daniele; Lamartina, Claudio

2018-02-01

This investigation aimed to examine the extent to which case-based discussion with experts could influence the audience's opinions on the treatment of patients during a continuing medical education event for spine surgeons. We conducted a prospective controlled crossover study of 90 surgeons. During a continuing medical education activity using case-based discussion, quiz questions were used which asked participants (attendants and faculty group) their opinions on the best choices about diagnosis and treatment in a number of cases. No answer was considered correct, but we evaluated the number of participants choosing each specific answer among a number of valid options. Quiz questions were collected with an automated response system at the entry and at the end of each case discussion. Change in participant's opinions was estimated from the change in the preferred answers between the entry and exit quizzes. Chi-square analysis was performed to determine significance. Sixty-two attendants out of eighty three (75%) and six faculties out of twelve (50%) responded to the survey. After the case discussion, 68.2% (p < 0.04, Chi-square test) of the attendants changed their opinion on the appropriate treatment. The faculty answers, however, showed no significant change in opinions regarding the identification of the appropriate treatment. On the basis of our results, case-based discussion driven by experts, as a form of teaching, has a measurable effect in terms of changes in the learners' opinions.

The effect of case-based discussion of topics with experts on learners' opinions: implications for spinal education and training.

PubMed

Berjano, Pedro; Villafañe, Jorge Hugo; Vanacker, Gerard; Cecchinato, Riccardo; Ismael, Maryem; Gunzburg, Robert; Marruzzo, Daniele; Lamartina, Claudio

2017-10-01

This investigation aimed to examine the extent to which case-based discussion with experts could influence the audience's opinions on the treatment of patients during a continuing medical education event for spine surgeons. We conducted a prospective controlled crossover study of 90 surgeons. During a continuing medical education activity using case-based discussion, quiz questions were used which asked participants (attendants and faculty group) their opinions on the best choices about diagnosis and treatment in a number of cases. No answer was considered correct, but we evaluated the number of participants choosing each specific answer among a number of valid options. Quiz questions were collected with an automated response system at the entry and at the end of each case discussion. Change in participant's opinions was estimated from the change in the preferred answers between the entry and exit quizzes. Chi-square analysis was performed to determine significance. Sixty-two attendants out of eighty three (75%) and six faculties out of twelve (50%) responded to the survey. After the case discussion, 68.2% (p < 0.04, Chi-square test) of the attendants changed their opinion on the appropriate treatment. The faculty answers, however, showed no significant change in opinions regarding the identification of the appropriate treatment. On the basis of our results, case-based discussion driven by experts, as a form of teaching, has a measurable effect in terms of changes in the learners' opinions.

Respiratory support in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome: an expert opinion.

PubMed

Chiumello, Davide; Brochard, Laurent; Marini, John J; Slutsky, Arthur S; Mancebo, Jordi; Ranieri, V Marco; Thompson, B Taylor; Papazian, Laurent; Schultz, Marcus J; Amato, Marcelo; Gattinoni, Luciano; Mercat, Alain; Pesenti, Antonio; Talmor, Daniel; Vincent, Jean-Louis

2017-09-12

Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is a common condition in intensive care unit patients and remains a major concern, with mortality rates of around 30-45% and considerable long-term morbidity. Respiratory support in these patients must be optimized to ensure adequate gas exchange while minimizing the risks of ventilator-induced lung injury. The aim of this expert opinion document is to review the available clinical evidence related to ventilator support and adjuvant therapies in order to provide evidence-based and experience-based clinical recommendations for the management of patients with ARDS.

Expert opinion on landslide susceptibility elicted by probabilistic inversion from scenario rankings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Katy; Dashwood, Claire; Lark, Murray

2016-04-01

For many natural hazards the opinion of experts, with experience in assessing susceptibility under different circumstances, is a valuable source of information on which to base risk assessments. This is particularly important where incomplete process understanding, and limited data, limit the scope to predict susceptibility by mechanistic or statistical modelling. The expert has a tacit model of a system, based on their understanding of processes and their field experience. This model may vary in quality, depending on the experience of the expert. There is considerable interest in how one may elicit expert understanding by a process which is transparent and robust, to provide a basis for decision support. One approach is to provide experts with a set of scenarios, and then to ask them to rank small overlapping subsets of these with respect to susceptibility. Methods of probabilistic inversion have been used to compute susceptibility scores for each scenario, implicit in the expert ranking. It is also possible to model these scores as functions of measurable properties of the scenarios. This approach has been used to assess susceptibility of animal populations to invasive diseases, to assess risk to vulnerable marine environments and to assess the risk in hypothetical novel technologies for food production. We will present the results of a study in which a group of geologists with varying degrees of expertise in assessing landslide hazards were asked to rank sets of hypothetical simplified scenarios with respect to land slide susceptibility. We examine the consistency of their rankings and the importance of different properties of the scenarios in the tacit susceptibility model that their rankings implied. Our results suggest that this is a promising approach to the problem of how experts can communicate their tacit model of uncertain systems to those who want to make use of their expertise.

Expert Opinions on Improving Femicide Data Collection across Europe: A Concept Mapping Study

PubMed Central

Vives-Cases, Carmen; Goicolea, Isabel; Hernández, Alison; Sanz-Barbero, Belen; Gill, Aisha K.; Baldry, Anna Costanza; Schröttle, Monika; Stoeckl, Heidi

2016-01-01

Femicide, defined as the killings of females by males because they are females, is becoming recognized worldwide as an important ongoing manifestation of gender inequality. Despite its high prevalence or widespread prevalence, only a few countries have specific registries about this issue. This study aims to assemble expert opinion regarding the strategies which might feasibly be employed to promote, develop and implement an integrated and differentiated femicide data collection system in Europe at both the national and international levels. Concept mapping methodology was followed, involving 28 experts from 16 countries in generating strategies, sorting and rating them with respect to relevance and feasibility. The experts involved were all members of the EU-Cost-Action on femicide, which is a scientific network of experts on femicide and violence against women across Europe. As a result, a conceptual map emerged, consisting of 69 strategies organized in 10 clusters, which fit into two domains: “Political action” and “Technical steps”. There was consensus among participants regarding the high relevance of strategies to institutionalize national databases and raise public awareness through different stakeholders, while strategies to promote media involvement were identified as the most feasible. Differences in perceived priorities according to the level of human development index of the experts’ countries were also observed. PMID:26859885

Does expert opinion match the operational definition of the Lupus Low Disease Activity State (LLDAS)? A case-based construct validity study.

PubMed

Golder, Vera; Huq, Molla; Franklyn, Kate; Calderone, Alicia; Lateef, Aisha; Lau, Chak Sing; Lee, Alfred Lok Hang; Navarra, Sandra Teresa V; Godfrey, Timothy; Oon, Shereen; Hoi, Alberta Yik Bun; Morand, Eric Francis; Nikpour, Mandana

2017-06-01

To evaluate the construct validity of the Lupus Low Disease Activity State (LLDAS), a treatment target in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Fifty SLE case summaries based on real patients were prepared and assessed independently for meeting the operational definition of LLDAS. Fifty international rheumatologists with expertise in SLE, but with no prior involvement in the LLDAS project, responded to a survey in which they were asked to categorize the disease activity state of each case as remission, low, moderate, or high. Agreement between expert opinion and LLDAS was assessed using Cohen's kappa. Overall agreement between expert opinion and the operational definition of LLDAS was 77.96% (95% CI: 76.34-79.58%), with a Cohen's kappa of 0.57 (95% CI: 0.55-0.61). Of the cases (22 of 50) that fulfilled the operational definition of LLDAS, only 5.34% (59 of 22 × 50) of responses classified the cases as moderate/high activity. Of the cases that did not fulfill the operational definition of LLDAS (28 of 50), 35.14% (492 of 28 × 50) of responses classified the cases as remission/low activity. Common reasons for discordance were assignment to remission/low activity of cases with higher corticosteroid doses than defined in LLDAS (prednisolone ≤ 7.5mg) or with SLEDAI-2K >4 due to serological activity (high anti-dsDNA antibody and/or low complement). LLDAS has good construct validity with high overall agreement between the operational definition of LLDAS and expert opinion. Discordance of results suggests that the operational definition of LLDAS is more stringent than expert opinion at defining a low disease activity state. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Identifying deficiencies in national and foreign medical team responses through expert opinion surveys: implications for education and training.

PubMed

Djalali, Ahmadreza; Ingrassia, Pier Luigi; Corte, Francesco Della; Foletti, Marco; Gallardo, Alba Ripoll; Ragazzoni, Luca; Kaptan, Kubilay; Lupescu, Olivera; Arculeo, Chris; von Arnim, Gotz; Friedl, Tom; Ashkenazi, Michael; Heselmann, Deike; Hreckovski, Boris; Khorram-Manesh, Amir; Khorrram-Manesh, Amir; Komadina, Radko; Lechner, Kostanze; Patru, Cristina; Burkle, Frederick M; Fisher, Philipp

2014-08-01

Unacceptable practices in the delivery of international medical assistance are reported after every major international disaster; this raises concerns about the clinical competence and practice of some foreign medical teams (FMTs). The aim of this study is to explore and analyze the opinions of disaster management experts about potential deficiencies in the art and science of national and FMTs during disasters and the impact these opinions might have on competency-based education and training. This qualitative study was performed in 2013. A questionnaire-based evaluation of experts' opinions and experiences in responding to disasters was conducted. The selection of the experts was done using the purposeful sampling method, and the sample size was considered by data saturation. Content analysis was used to explore the implications of the data. This study shows that there is a lack of competency-based training for disaster responders. Developing and performing standardized training courses is influenced by shortcomings in budget, expertise, and standards. There is a lack of both coordination and integration among teams and their activities during disasters. The participants of this study emphasized problems concerning access to relevant resources during disasters. The major findings of this study suggest that teams often are not competent during the response phase because of education and training deficiencies. Foreign medical teams and medically related nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) do not always provide expected capabilities and services. Failures in leadership and in coordination among teams are also a problem. All deficiencies need to be applied to competency-based curricula.

Paediatric expert witness.

PubMed

Johnson, Sandra L J

2013-08-01

Paediatricians may be asked to provide expert opinion in paediatric cases that come under legal consideration. This article provides suggestions to assist paediatricians in this role and emphasises their duty to the court when giving expert opinion. © 2013 The Author. Journal of Paediatrics and Child Health © 2013 Paediatrics and Child Health Division (Royal Australasian College of Physicians).

Short-term leprosy forecasting from an expert opinion survey.

PubMed

Deiner, Michael S; Worden, Lee; Rittel, Alex; Ackley, Sarah F; Liu, Fengchen; Blum, Laura; Scott, James C; Lietman, Thomas M; Porco, Travis C

2017-01-01

We conducted an expert survey of leprosy (Hansen's Disease) and neglected tropical disease experts in February 2016. Experts were asked to forecast the next year of reported cases for the world, for the top three countries, and for selected states and territories of India. A total of 103 respondents answered at least one forecasting question. We elicited lower and upper confidence bounds. Comparing these results to regression and exponential smoothing, we found no evidence that any forecasting method outperformed the others. We found evidence that experts who believed it was more likely to achieve global interruption of transmission goals and disability reduction goals had higher error scores for India and Indonesia, but lower for Brazil. Even for a disease whose epidemiology changes on a slow time scale, forecasting exercises such as we conducted are simple and practical. We believe they can be used on a routine basis in public health.

A framework to start the debate on neonatal screening policies in the EU: an Expert Opinion Document.

PubMed

Cornel, Martina C; Rigter, Tessel; Weinreich, Stephanie S; Burgard, Peter; Hoffmann, Georg F; Lindner, Martin; Gerard Loeber, J; Rupp, Kathrin; Taruscio, Domenica; Vittozzi, Luciano

2014-01-01

The European Union (EU) Council Recommendation on rare diseases urged the member states to implement national and EU collaborative actions to improve the health care of rare disease patients. Following this recommendation, the European Commission launched a tender on newborn screening (NBS) to report on current practices of laboratory testing, form a network of experts and provide guidance on how to further implement NBS screening in a responsible way, the latter of which was provided in an Expert Opinion document. After consultation of experts from EU member states, (potential) candidate member states and European Free Trade Association countries, in a consensus meeting in June 2011, 70 expert opinions were finalized. They included the need to develop case definitions for all disorders screened for to facilitate assessment and international outcome studies. Decision whether a screening program should be performed can be based on screening criteria updated from the traditional Wilson and Jungner (1968) criteria, relating to disease, treatment, test and cost. The interest of the child should be central in the assessment of pros and cons. A European NBS body should assess evidence on (new) screening candidate disorders. For rare conditions, best level evidence should be used. The health system should ensure treatment to cases diagnosed by screening, controlled and revised by follow-up outcome studies. Screening methodology should aim to avoid unintended findings, such as mild forms and carrier status information, as much as possible. Activities to improve NBS in Europe, such as training and scientific evaluation, could benefit from collaboration at EU level and beyond.

Running retraining to treat lower limb injuries: a mixed-methods study of current evidence synthesised with expert opinion.

PubMed

Barton, C J; Bonanno, D R; Carr, J; Neal, B S; Malliaras, P; Franklyn-Miller, A; Menz, H B

2016-05-01

Running-related injuries are highly prevalent. Synthesise published evidence with international expert opinion on the use of running retraining when treating lower limb injuries. Mixed methods. A systematic review of clinical and biomechanical findings related to running retraining interventions were synthesised and combined with semistructured interviews with 16 international experts covering clinical reasoning related to the implementation of running retraining. Limited evidence supports the effectiveness of transition from rearfoot to forefoot or midfoot strike and increase step rate or altering proximal mechanics in individuals with anterior exertional lower leg pain; and visual and verbal feedback to reduce hip adduction in females with patellofemoral pain. Despite the paucity of clinical evidence, experts recommended running retraining for: iliotibial band syndrome; plantar fasciopathy (fasciitis); Achilles, patellar, proximal hamstring and gluteal tendinopathy; calf pain; and medial tibial stress syndrome. Tailoring approaches to each injury and individual was recommended to optimise outcomes. Substantial evidence exists for the immediate biomechanical effects of running retraining interventions (46 studies), including evaluation of step rate and strike pattern manipulation, strategies to alter proximal kinematics and cues to reduce impact loading variables. Our synthesis of published evidence related to clinical outcomes and biomechanical effects with expert opinion indicates running retraining warrants consideration in the treatment of lower limb injuries in clinical practice. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Short-term leprosy forecasting from an expert opinion survey

PubMed Central

Deiner, Michael S.; Worden, Lee; Rittel, Alex; Ackley, Sarah F.; Liu, Fengchen; Blum, Laura; Scott, James C.; Lietman, Thomas M.

2017-01-01

We conducted an expert survey of leprosy (Hansen’s Disease) and neglected tropical disease experts in February 2016. Experts were asked to forecast the next year of reported cases for the world, for the top three countries, and for selected states and territories of India. A total of 103 respondents answered at least one forecasting question. We elicited lower and upper confidence bounds. Comparing these results to regression and exponential smoothing, we found no evidence that any forecasting method outperformed the others. We found evidence that experts who believed it was more likely to achieve global interruption of transmission goals and disability reduction goals had higher error scores for India and Indonesia, but lower for Brazil. Even for a disease whose epidemiology changes on a slow time scale, forecasting exercises such as we conducted are simple and practical. We believe they can be used on a routine basis in public health. PMID:28813531

[Deontology of the medical expert].

PubMed

Raszeja, S

1995-09-01

The authority of prosecuting organ to choose the expert, set his task and verify the following opinion is defined. The qualities of the medical expert and his duties are described, referring to: -his expertise; -his morality; -his ability to issue an independent (objective) opinion. Detailed rules, which can be ascribed to a specific medical expert's deontological code, are listed and explained.

The CHESS method of forensic opinion formulation: striving to checkmate bias.

PubMed

Wills, Cheryl D

2008-01-01

Expert witnesses use various methods to render dispassionate opinions. Some forensic psychiatrists acknowledge bias up front; other experts use principles endorsed by the American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law or other professional organizations. This article introduces CHESS, a systematic method for reducing bias in expert opinions. The CHESS method involves identifying a Claim or preliminary opinion; developing a Hierarchy of supporting evidence; examining the evidence for weaknesses or areas of Exposure; Studying and revising the claim and supporting evidence; and Synthesizing a revised opinion. Case examples illustrate how the CHESS method may help experts reduce bias while strengthening opinions. The method also helps experts prepare for court by reminding them to anticipate questions that may be asked during cross-examination. The CHESS method provides a framework for formulating, revising, and identifying limitations of opinions, which allows experts to incorporate neutrality into forensic opinions.

39 CFR 230.23 - May an Office of Inspector General employee testify as an expert or opinion witness?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 39 Postal Service 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false May an Office of Inspector General employee testify as an expert or opinion witness? 230.23 Section 230.23 Postal Service UNITED STATES POSTAL SERVICE ORGANIZATION AND ADMINISTRATION OFFICE OF INSPECTOR GENERAL Rules Governing Compliance With Subpoenas, Summonses, and Court Orders by Postal...

[The criteria for appointing experts in forensic medicine].

PubMed

Vojtíšek, Tomáš

In the Czech Republic, forensic medicine is an independent medical field, in which physicians with the appropriate attestation perform expert activities, especially in criminal proceedings, after being formally appointed by a regional court. In order to improve the quality of the activities provided by these experts, the Ministry of Justice is endeavouring to tighten up the general conditions for the appointment of new forensic experts. The individual criteria do not, however, take into account the special nature of forensic medicine as a medical field, the very essence of which involves the specialist qualifications which are necessary for the provision of expert opinions, most frequently to the police. In particular, the introduction of a strict requirement for ten-years of work experience after leaving medical school has hindered and stalled the entrance of young physicians with completed post-graduate studies into the area of forensic medicine. An inquiry sent to the regional courts has discovered that the average length of work experience for newly appointed experts in the period from 2004 to 2013 was 8.2 years, that half of them had work experience of seven years or less and that 75 percent of the newly appointed experts did not meet any set requirements for the length of their work experience at the time of their appointment. The new conditions may have a negative impact on attracting qualified graduates to forensic medicine after the completion of their medical studies and in the long term it may endanger the ability of the field of forensic medicine to provide expert opinions in criminal proceedings. In conclusion, it is the authors opinion that the appointment conditions should be set in cooperation with the professional medical associations and that they should take into account the specific characteristics of the individual medical fields, especially if they are to be set directly by means of a legal regulation within the framework of the recodification

Biology Teacher and Expert Opinions about Computer Assisted Biology Instruction Materials: A Software Entitled Nucleic Acids and Protein Synthesis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hasenekoglu, Ismet; Timucin, Melih

2007-01-01

The aim of this study is to collect and evaluate opinions of CAI experts and biology teachers about a high school level Computer Assisted Biology Instruction Material presenting computer-made modelling and simulations. It is a case study. A material covering "Nucleic Acids and Protein Synthesis" topic was developed as the…

[Health insurance companies and medical genetics, what do they want to know? Expert opinions concerning medical genetic services].

PubMed

Nippert, Reinhart Peter; Schmidtke, J

2012-03-01

Based on the compilation of medical opinions delivered by a medical genetic expert between 2002 and 2010, solicited by private health insurance companies in Germany, an analysis of the main issues raised was made to identify the information needs of company employees with respect to human and medical genetics. The findings are discussed and recommendations for improvement and further training are suggested.

Forensic medicine experts' opinion on medico-legal autopsies in hospital deaths: a questionnaire survey.

PubMed

D'Souza, Deepak Herald; Pant, Sadip; Menezes, Ritesh George

2013-10-01

Medico-legal autopsy is conducted routinely in some countries and selectively in others in hospital deaths. This study was conducted to evaluate the views of the forensic medicine experts regarding this matter. A questionnaire pro forma was sent to sixty-five forensic medicine experts practicing in different medical institutions all around India. Designations and experiences of the participants were noted by requests in the same questionnaire. Their specific experience in conducting medico-legal autopsy in hospital deaths was also requested for. Responses were charted in frequency distribution tables and analyzed using SPSS, version 17.0. One-third of the participants felt that a medico-legal autopsy was necessary in all the hospital death cases as defined in the present study. Ten percent of the participants opined that a medico-legal autopsy was unnecessary in hospital deaths. The majority of the experts mentioned finding the cause of death, followed by finding the manner of death and collecting the evidentiary materials, as the reasons for medico-legal autopsy in hospital deaths. Twenty percent of the participants felt that internal findings at autopsy poorly matched with the case records. All the experts agreed that external autopsy findings matched with the hospital case records. Nearly two-third of the participants felt that it was difficult in some cases to interpret the autopsy findings without case records from the hospital where the deceased was treated. Our findings suggest that the exercise of carrying out medico-legal autopsy routinely in every hospital death as evident in the Indian framework is often unnecessary as per the experts' opinion. Autopsy findings in hospital deaths often correlate with hospital case records.

Graphic Novels in Libraries: An Expert's Opinion

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Foster, Katy

2004-01-01

Barbara Gordon a librarian and computer expert from Gotham city is a genius level intellect and photographic memory expert at research and analysis. According to her, graphic novels and comics are wildly appealing to readers of all ages and intensely popular with adolescents.

The Use of Expert Opinion to Assess the Risk of Emergence or Re-Emergence of Infectious Diseases in Canada Associated with Climate Change

PubMed Central

Cox, Ruth; Revie, Crawford W.; Sanchez, Javier

2012-01-01

Global climate change is predicted to lead to an increase in infectious disease outbreaks. Reliable surveillance for diseases that are most likely to emerge is required, and given limited resources, policy decision makers need rational methods with which to prioritise pathogen threats. Here expert opinion was collected to determine what criteria could be used to prioritise diseases according to the likelihood of emergence in response to climate change and according to their impact. We identified a total of 40 criteria that might be used for this purpose in the Canadian context. The opinion of 64 experts from academic, government and independent backgrounds was collected to determine the importance of the criteria. A weight was calculated for each criterion based on the expert opinion. The five that were considered most influential on disease emergence or impact were: potential economic impact, severity of disease in the general human population, human case fatality rate, the type of climate that the pathogen can tolerate and the current climatic conditions in Canada. There was effective consensus about the influence of some criteria among participants, while for others there was considerable variation. The specific climate criteria that were most likely to influence disease emergence were: an annual increase in temperature, an increase in summer temperature, an increase in summer precipitation and to a lesser extent an increase in winter temperature. These climate variables were considered to be most influential on vector-borne diseases and on food and water-borne diseases. Opinion about the influence of climate on air-borne diseases and diseases spread by direct/indirect contact were more variable. The impact of emerging diseases on the human population was deemed more important than the impact on animal populations. PMID:22848536

On Consistency Test Method of Expert Opinion in Ecological Security Assessment

PubMed Central

Wang, Lihong

2017-01-01

To reflect the initiative design and initiative of human security management and safety warning, ecological safety assessment is of great value. In the comprehensive evaluation of regional ecological security with the participation of experts, the expert’s individual judgment level, ability and the consistency of the expert’s overall opinion will have a very important influence on the evaluation result. This paper studies the consistency measure and consensus measure based on the multiplicative and additive consistency property of fuzzy preference relation (FPR). We firstly propose the optimization methods to obtain the optimal multiplicative consistent and additively consistent FPRs of individual and group judgments, respectively. Then, we put forward a consistency measure by computing the distance between the original individual judgment and the optimal individual estimation, along with a consensus measure by computing the distance between the original collective judgment and the optimal collective estimation. In the end, we make a case study on ecological security for five cities. Result shows that the optimal FPRs are helpful in measuring the consistency degree of individual judgment and the consensus degree of collective judgment. PMID:28869570

False confessions, expert testimony, and admissibility.

PubMed

Watson, Clarence; Weiss, Kenneth J; Pouncey, Claire

2010-01-01

The confession of a criminal defendant serves as a prosecutor's most compelling piece of evidence during trial. Courts must preserve a defendant's constitutional right to a fair trial while upholding the judicial interests of presenting competent and reliable evidence to the jury. When a defendant seeks to challenge the validity of that confession through expert testimony, the prosecution often contests the admissibility of the expert's opinion. Depending on the content and methodology of the expert's opinion, testimony addressing the phenomenon of false confessions may or may not be admissible. This article outlines the scientific and epistemological bases of expert testimony on false confession, notes the obstacles facing its admissibility, and provides guidance to the expert in formulating opinions that will reach the judge or jury. We review the 2006 New Jersey Superior Court decision in State of New Jersey v. George King to illustrate what is involved in the admissibility of false-confession testimony and use the case as a starting point in developing a best-practice approach to working in this area.

Cost estimation: An expert-opinion approach. [cost analysis of research projects using the Delphi method (forecasting)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buffalano, C.; Fogleman, S.; Gielecki, M.

1976-01-01

A methodology is outlined which can be used to estimate the costs of research and development projects. The approach uses the Delphi technique a method developed by the Rand Corporation for systematically eliciting and evaluating group judgments in an objective manner. The use of the Delphi allows for the integration of expert opinion into the cost-estimating process in a consistent and rigorous fashion. This approach can also signal potential cost-problem areas. This result can be a useful tool in planning additional cost analysis or in estimating contingency funds. A Monte Carlo approach is also examined.

32 CFR 516.52 - Expert witnesses.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... States Has An Interest § 516.52 Expert witnesses. Requests for present or former DA personnel as expert... SJA or legal adviser. In no event, may present or former DA personnel furnish expert or opinion...

Future Challenges in Higher Education--Bologna Experts' Community Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yemini, Miri

2012-01-01

This work presents results from systematic analysis of the challenges for the future of higher education in European and neighboring countries as it was extracted from the Bologna experts and Higher Education Reform experts' opinions. Opinions of more than 100 experts from 35 countries were documented and analyzed. Significant differences in the…

Expert opinion in the management of aqueous Deficient Dry Eye Disease (DED).

PubMed

Sy, Aileen; O'Brien, Kieran S; Liu, Margaret P; Cuddapah, Puja A; Acharya, Nisha R; Lietman, Thomas M; Rose-Nussbaumer, Jennifer

2015-10-13

Dry eye disease (DED) affects millions of people worldwide. There are a variety of new treatments beyond traditional therapies such as preservative free artificial tears. Here, we conduct a survey to identify the most common treatments used among specialists and assess their interest in newer therapies. An international survey was distributed to dry eye researchers and expert practitioners via an internet survey. The survey data collected were analyzed with descriptive statistics. One hundred and fifteen respondents completed the survey; of these, 66 % were cornea specialists. The most commonly prescribed topical treatments included cyclosporine A (CSA) 0.05 % (71/104, 68 %), fluorometholone (FML) 0.1 % (59/99, 60 %), loteprednol etabonate 0.5 % (50/99, 51 %), and autologous serum eye drops (ASD; 48/97, 49 %). The most commonly prescribed non-topical medications included essential fatty acid supplements (72/104, 69 %), low-dose doxycycline (oral; 61/100, 61 %), and flaxseed supplements (32/96, 33 %) as well as punctal plugs (76/102, 75 %). Respondents reported treatment with topical corticosteroids for 2 to 8 weeks (46/86, 53 %), followed by less than 2 weeks (24/86, 28 %) and with topical CSA between 2 to 8 weeks (45/85, 53 %) followed by 2 to 6 months (24/85, 28 %). The top three signs and symptoms reported to indicate treatment response were, in order, fluorescein staining of the cornea, reduction in foreign body sensation, and reduction in burning sensation. This survey offers insight into current expert opinion in the treatment of DED. The results of this survey are hypothesis generating and will aid in the design of future clinical studies.

Dramatically Polarized Opinion on the Role of Brachytherapy Boost in Management of High-risk Prostate Cancer: A Survey of North American Genitourinary Expert Radiation Oncologists.

PubMed

McClelland, Shearwood; Sandler, Kiri A; Degnin, Catherine; Chen, Yiyi; Mitin, Timur

2018-06-01

Three randomized clinical trials have established brachytherapy (BT) boost in combination with external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) and androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) as superior to definitive EBRT and ADT alone in terms of biochemical control (but not overall survival) at the expense of increased toxicity in men with high-risk (HR) prostate cancer (PCa). The current view regarding these 2 treatment algorithms among North American genitourinary (GU) experts is not known. A survey was distributed to 88 practicing North American GU physicians serving on decision-making committees of cooperative group research organizations. Questions pertained to opinions regarding BT as monotherapy for low-risk PCa and BT boost for HR PCa. Responders were asked to self-identify as BT experts versus non-experts. Treatment recommendations were correlated with practice patterns using the Fisher exact test. Forty-two radiation oncologists completed the survey, of whom 23 (55%) recommend EBRT and ADT alone and 19 (45%) recommend addition of BT boost. Twenty-five participants (60%) identified themselves as BT experts. Nearly 90% of those recommending BT boost were BT experts versus approximately 10% of non-BT experts (P < .001). Responders who recommended BT monotherapy as first-choice treatment for low-risk PCa were more likely to recommend BT boost for HR PCa (P < .0001). There is a dramatic polarization in opinions regarding incorporation of BT boost into EBRT + ADT therapy for patients with HR PCa among North American GU radiation oncology experts, who serve on decision-making committees and influence the national treatment guidelines and future clinical trials. Those who identify themselves as BT experts are significantly more likely to recommend BT boost. These findings are likely to influence the national guidelines and implementation of BT boost in current and future North American PCa clinical studies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Defining landscape resistance values in least-cost connectivity models for the invasive grey squirrel: a comparison of approaches using expert-opinion and habitat suitability modelling.

PubMed

Stevenson-Holt, Claire D; Watts, Kevin; Bellamy, Chloe C; Nevin, Owen T; Ramsey, Andrew D

2014-01-01

Least-cost models are widely used to study the functional connectivity of habitat within a varied landscape matrix. A critical step in the process is identifying resistance values for each land cover based upon the facilitating or impeding impact on species movement. Ideally resistance values would be parameterised with empirical data, but due to a shortage of such information, expert-opinion is often used. However, the use of expert-opinion is seen as subjective, human-centric and unreliable. This study derived resistance values from grey squirrel habitat suitability models (HSM) in order to compare the utility and validity of this approach with more traditional, expert-led methods. Models were built and tested with MaxEnt, using squirrel presence records and a categorical land cover map for Cumbria, UK. Predictions on the likelihood of squirrel occurrence within each land cover type were inverted, providing resistance values which were used to parameterise a least-cost model. The resulting habitat networks were measured and compared to those derived from a least-cost model built with previously collated information from experts. The expert-derived and HSM-inferred least-cost networks differ in precision. The HSM-informed networks were smaller and more fragmented because of the higher resistance values attributed to most habitats. These results are discussed in relation to the applicability of both approaches for conservation and management objectives, providing guidance to researchers and practitioners attempting to apply and interpret a least-cost approach to mapping ecological networks.

Expert opinion and key recommendations for the physical therapy and rehabilitation of patients with ankylosing spondylitis.

PubMed

Ozgocmen, Salih; Akgul, Ozgur; Altay, Zuhal; Altindag, Ozlem; Baysal, Ozlem; Calis, Mustafa; Capkin, Erhan; Cevik, Remzi; Durmus, Bekir; Gur, Ali; Kamanli, Ayhan; Karkucak, Murat; Madenci, Ercan; Melikoglu, Meltem A; Nas, Kemal; Senel, Kazim; Ugur, Mahir

2012-06-01

  Physiotherapy is an integral part of the management of ankylosing spondylitis (AS) and there is a need for recommendations which focus on the rehabilitation of patients with AS. We aimed to develop recommendations for the physical therapy and rehabilitation of patients with AS based on the evidence and expertise.   The Anatolian Group for the Assessment in Rheumatic Diseases (ANGARD) is a scientific group of Turkish academicians (physiatrists and rheumatologists) who are experts in the rehabilitation of patients with AS. A systematic literature search summarizing the current available physiotherapy and rehabilitation trials in AS were presented to the experts before a special 2-day meeting. Experts attending this meeting first defined a framework based on the main principles and thereafter collectively constructed six major recommendations on physiotherapy and rehabilitation in AS. After the meeting an email survey was conducted to rate the strength of the recommendations.   Six key recommendations which cover the general principles of rehabilitation in AS in terms of early intervention, initial and follow-up assessments and monitoring, contraindications and precautions, key advice for physiotherapy methods and exercise were constructed.   These recommendations were developed using evidence-based data and expert opinion. The implementation of these recommendations should encourage a more comprehensive and methodical approach in the rehabilitation of patients with AS. Regular lifelong exercise is the mainstay of rehabilitation and there is a considerable need for well-designed studies which will enlighten the role of physical therapy in the management of AS. © 2011 The Authors International Journal of Rheumatic Diseases © 2011 Asia Pacific League of Associations for Rheumatology and Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Building legitimacy by criticising the pharmaceutical industry: a qualitative study among prescribers and local opinion leaders.

PubMed

Pittet, Anne-Laure; Saraga, Michael; Stiefel, Friedrich

2015-01-01

The literature has described opinion leaders not only as marketing tools of the pharmaceutical industry, but also as educators promoting good clinical practice. This qualitative study addresses the distinction between the opinion-leader-as-marketing-tool and the opinion-leader-as-educator, as it is revealed in the discourses of physicians and experts, focusing on the prescription of antidepressants. We explore the relational dynamic between physicians, opinion leaders and the pharmaceutical industry in an area of French-speaking Switzerland. Qualitative content analysis of 24 semistructured interviews with physicians and local experts in psychopharmacology, complemented by direct observation of educational events led by the experts, which were all sponsored by various pharmaceutical companies. Both physicians and experts were critical of the pharmaceutical industry and its use of opinion leaders. Local experts, in contrast, were perceived by the physicians as critical of the industry and, therefore, as a legitimate source of information. Local experts did not consider themselves opinion leaders and argued that they remained intellectually independent from the industry. Field observations confirmed that local experts criticised the industry at continuing medical education events. Local experts were vocal critics of the industry, which nevertheless sponsor their continuing education. This critical attitude enhanced their credibility in the eyes of the prescribing physicians. We discuss how the experts, despite their critical attitude, might still be beneficial to the industry's interests.

Accepted standards on how to give a Medical Research Presentation: a systematic review of expert opinion papers.

PubMed

Blome, Christine; Sondermann, Hanno; Augustin, Matthias

2017-01-01

Background: This systematic review aimed to extract recommendations from expert opinion articles on how to give a medical research presentation on a scientific conference and to determine whether the experts agree on what makes an effective or poor presentation. Methods: Presentation-related terms were searched within article titles listed in PubMed, restricting the search to English-language articles published from January 1975 to July 2015. Recommendations were extracted from the articles, grouped by content, and analyzed for frequency. Ninety-one articles were included. Among 679 different recommendations, 29 were given in more than 20% of articles each. The five most frequent recommendations were to keep slides simple, adjust the talk to the audience, rehearse, not read the talk from slides or a manuscript, and make eye contact. Results: No article gave advice that was the complete opposite of the 29 most frequent recommendations with the exception of whether a light or dark background should be used for slides. Conclusions: Researchers should comply with these widely accepted standards to be perceived as effective presenters.

Accepted standards on how to give a Medical Research Presentation: a systematic review of expert opinion papers

PubMed Central

Blome, Christine; Sondermann, Hanno; Augustin, Matthias

2017-01-01

Background: This systematic review aimed to extract recommendations from expert opinion articles on how to give a medical research presentation on a scientific conference and to determine whether the experts agree on what makes an effective or poor presentation. Methods: Presentation-related terms were searched within article titles listed in PubMed, restricting the search to English-language articles published from January 1975 to July 2015. Recommendations were extracted from the articles, grouped by content, and analyzed for frequency. Ninety-one articles were included. Among 679 different recommendations, 29 were given in more than 20% of articles each. The five most frequent recommendations were to keep slides simple, adjust the talk to the audience, rehearse, not read the talk from slides or a manuscript, and make eye contact. Results: No article gave advice that was the complete opposite of the 29 most frequent recommendations with the exception of whether a light or dark background should be used for slides. Conclusions: Researchers should comply with these widely accepted standards to be perceived as effective presenters. PMID:28293678

Assessing the probability of introduction and spread of avian influenza (AI) virus in commercial Australian poultry operations using an expert opinion elicitation.

PubMed

Singh, Mini; Toribio, Jenny-Ann; Scott, Angela Bullanday; Groves, Peter; Barnes, Belinda; Glass, Kathryn; Moloney, Barbara; Black, Amanda; Hernandez-Jover, Marta

2018-01-01

The objective of this study was to elicit experts' opinions and gather estimates on the perceived probability of introduction and spread of avian influenza (AI) virus in the Australian broiler and layer industry. Using a modified Delphi method and a 4-step elicitation process, 11 experts were asked to give initial individual estimates for the various pathways and practices in the presented scenarios using a questionnaire. Following this, a workshop was conducted to present group averages of estimates and discussion was facilitated to obtain final individual estimates. For each question, estimates for all experts were combined using a discrete distribution, with weights allocated representing the level of expertise. Indirect contact with wild birds either via a contaminated water source or fomites was considered the most likely pathway of introduction of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) on poultry farms. Presence of a water body near the poultry farm was considered a potential pathway for introduction only when the operation type was free range and the water body was within 500m distance from the shed. The probability that LPAI will mutate to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) was considered to be higher in layer farms. Shared personnel, equipment and aerosol dispersion were the most likely pathways of shed to shed spread of the virus. For LPAI and HPAI spread from farm to farm, shared pick-up trucks for broiler and shared egg trays and egg pallets for layer farms were considered the most likely pathways. Findings from this study provide an insight on most influential practices on the introduction and spread of AI virus among commercial poultry farms in Australia, as elicited from opinions of experts. These findings will be used to support parameterization of a modelling study assessing the risk of AI introduction and spread among commercial poultry farms in Australia.

Interictal epileptiform discharge characteristics underlying expert interrater agreement.

PubMed

Bagheri, Elham; Dauwels, Justin; Dean, Brian C; Waters, Chad G; Westover, M Brandon; Halford, Jonathan J

2017-10-01

The presence of interictal epileptiform discharges (IED) in the electroencephalogram (EEG) is a key finding in the medical workup of a patient with suspected epilepsy. However, inter-rater agreement (IRA) regarding the presence of IED is imperfect, leading to incorrect and delayed diagnoses. An improved understanding of which IED attributes mediate expert IRA might help in developing automatic methods for IED detection able to emulate the abilities of experts. Therefore, using a set of IED scored by a large number of experts, we set out to determine which attributes of IED predict expert agreement regarding the presence of IED. IED were annotated on a 5-point scale by 18 clinical neurophysiologists within 200 30-s EEG segments from recordings of 200 patients. 5538 signal analysis features were extracted from the waveforms, including wavelet coefficients, morphological features, signal energy, nonlinear energy operator response, electrode location, and spectrogram features. Feature selection was performed by applying elastic net regression and support vector regression (SVR) was applied to predict expert opinion, with and without the feature selection procedure and with and without several types of signal normalization. Multiple types of features were useful for predicting expert annotations, but particular types of wavelet features performed best. Local EEG normalization also enhanced best model performance. As the size of the group of EEGers used to train the models was increased, the performance of the models leveled off at a group size of around 11. The features that best predict inter-rater agreement among experts regarding the presence of IED are wavelet features, using locally standardized EEG. Our models for predicting expert opinion based on EEGer's scores perform best with a large group of EEGers (more than 10). By examining a large group of EEG signal analysis features we found that wavelet features with certain wavelet basis functions performed best to

Experts opinion on the use of normative data for functional capacity evaluation in occupational and rehabilitation medicine and disability claims.

PubMed

Soer, Remko; Reneman, Michiel F; Frings-Dresen, Monique H W; Kuijer, P Paul; Kuijer, P Paul F M

2014-12-01

Application of normative values for functional capacity evaluation (FCE) is controversial for the assessment of clients for work ability. The objective of this study was to study when clinicians and researchers consider normative values of FCE useful or of no use for their purposes. A focus group meeting was organized among 43 FCE experts working in insurance, occupational and/or rehabilitation medicine from eight countries during the first international FCE research meeting on October 25th, 2012 in the Netherlands. Participants were asked to rate to which degree they agree or disagree with a statement concerning their position toward normative values for FCE on a 10 cm VAS ranging from 0 (completely disagree) to 100 (completely agree) at T0 and T1. Arguments for aspects that are useful and of no use for normative values were systematically collected during the meeting and afterwards independently clustered by two researchers in higher order topics. Baseline opinion of participants on their position toward normative values was 49 ± 29 points. After the meeting, mean VAS was 55 ± 23 (p = 0.07), indicating that participants did not significantly change their opinion toward normative values. Based on arguments provided by the experts, seven higher order topics were constructed namely 'Comparison with job demands or treatment goals'; 'Comparison with co-workers physical ability'; 'Sincerity of effort'; 'Validity for work ability and return to work'; 'Experience of referrer with assessment method'; 'Clinimetrics compared to alternative assessment methods or reference values'; and 'Ease of use for clinician and stakeholders'. Although experts state useful aspects for the use of normative values of FCE for these assessments, it may also lead to over-interpretation of results, leading to dualistic statements concerning work ability, with potential harmful consequences for work ability of patients.

[Quality of genetic services--analysis of medical genetic expert opinions solicited by private health insurance companies].

PubMed

Nippert, Reinhardt Peter; Schmidtke, Jörg

2012-01-01

Service quality for patients with genetic conditions can be assessed through the analysis of clinical genetic data sets, as was the case in this study. It represents a secondary analysis of a compilation of a single genetic expert's medical opinions covering the years 2000 to 2009, solicited by private health insurance companies with the intention of probing into medical necessity and adequacy of genetic testing ordered by physicians. Genetic testing has become an increasingly important part of clinical diagnostic services. Controlling these services does not only reduce costs but also saves patients from unwarranted over-utilisation. Therefore, the reasons given by doctors when ordering genetic tests are part of the quality of service delivery. The study revealed that more than 30% of the molecular genetic tests ordered lack sound medical reasoning and 30% of the cases studied show violation or neglect of guidelines and recommendations for diagnostic procedures with respect to genetic testing. In essence, the findings indicate a need for human genetic information among physicians. Their professional organisations are called upon to design and offer CME/CPD programmes in medical genetics to maintain and continually improve the quality of medical genetic care for patients with genetic conditions. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

Expert opinion on risks to the long-term viability of residential recycled water schemes: An Australian study.

PubMed

West, Camilla; Kenway, Steven; Hassall, Maureen; Yuan, Zhiguo

2017-09-01

The water sector needs to make efficient and prudent investment decisions by carefully considering the long-term viability of water infrastructure projects. To support the assessment and planning of residential recycled water schemes in Australia, we have sought to clarify scheme objectives and to further define the array of critical risks that can impact the long-term viability of schemes. Building on historical information, we conducted a national survey which elicited responses from 88 Australian expert practitioners, of which 64% have over 10 years of industry experience and 42% have experience with more than five residential recycled water schemes. On the basis of expert opinion, residential recycled water schemes are considered to be highly relevant for diversifying and improving water supply security, reducing wastewater effluent discharge and pollutant load to waterways and contributing to sustainable urban development. At present however, the inability to demonstrate an incontestable business case is posing a significant risk to the long-term viability of residential recycled water schemes. Political, regulatory, organisational and financial factors were also rated as critical risks, in addition to community risk perception and fall in demand. The survey results shed further light on the regulatory environment of residential recycled water schemes, with regulatory participants rating the level and impact of risk factors higher than other survey participants in most cases. The research outcomes provide a comprehensive understanding of the critical risks to the long-term viability of residential recycled water schemes, thereby enabling the specification of targeted risk management measures at the assessment and planning stage of a scheme. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

EXPLICIT: a feasibility study of remote expert elicitation in health technology assessment.

PubMed

Grigore, Bogdan; Peters, Jaime; Hyde, Christopher; Stein, Ken

2017-09-04

Expert opinion is often sought to complement available information needed to inform model-based economic evaluations in health technology assessments. In this context, we define expert elicitation as the process of encoding expert opinion on a quantity of interest, together with associated uncertainty, as a probability distribution. When availability for face-to-face expert elicitation with a facilitator is limited, elicitation can be conducted remotely, overcoming challenges of finding an appropriate time to meet the expert and allowing access to experts situated too far away for practical face-to-face sessions. However, distance elicitation is associated with reduced response rates and limited assistance for the expert during the elicitation session. The aim of this study was to inform the development of a remote elicitation tool by exploring the influence of mode of elicitation on elicited beliefs. An Excel-based tool (EXPLICIT) was developed to assist the elicitation session, including the preparation of the expert and recording of their responses. General practitioners (GPs) were invited to provide expert opinion about population alcohol consumption behaviours. They were randomised to complete the elicitation by either a face-to-face meeting or email. EXPLICIT was used in the elicitation sessions for both arms. Fifteen GPs completed the elicitation session. Those conducted by email were longer than the face-to-face sessions (13 min 30 s vs 10 min 26 s, p = 0.1) and the email-elicited estimates contained less uncertainty. However, the resulting aggregated distributions were comparable. EXPLICIT was useful in both facilitating the elicitation task and in obtaining expert opinion from experts via email. The findings support the opinion that remote, self-administered elicitation is a viable approach within the constraints of HTA to inform policy making, although poor response rates may be observed and additional time for individual sessions may be required.

Heterodoxy, iconoclasm and spuriousness: the limits of novel expert evidence.

PubMed

Freckelton, Ian

2007-12-01

A difficult issue arises for courts' decision-making at common law and under statutory evidentiary regimes when expert opinions are significantly unorthodox, iconoclastic or methodologically flawed. This editorial analyses the relevant evidentiary principles and the Australian jurisprudence on the subject, giving particular attention to the decisions of the South Australian Supreme Court in R v Parenzee [2007] SASC 143 and R v Parenzee [2007] SASC 316 in which expert opinions about the existence, identifiability and transmissibility of HIV and its relationship to AIDS adduced on behalf of the defence in a criminal trial were found to be seriously wanting. A variety of factors indicative of low probative value in expert opinions are distilled.

MERS-CoV at the Animal–Human Interface: Inputs on Exposure Pathways from an Expert-Opinion Elicitation

PubMed Central

Funk, Anna L.; Goutard, Flavie Luce; Miguel, Eve; Bourgarel, Mathieu; Chevalier, Veronique; Faye, Bernard; Peiris, J. S. Malik; Van Kerkhove, Maria D.; Roger, Francois Louis

2016-01-01

Nearly 4 years after the first report of the emergence of Middle-East respiratory syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and nearly 1800 human cases later, the ecology of MERS-CoV, its epidemiology, and more than risk factors of MERS-CoV transmission between camels are poorly understood. Knowledge about the pathways and mechanisms of transmission from animals to humans is limited; as of yet, transmission risks have not been quantified. Moreover the divergent sanitary situations and exposures to animals among populations in the Arabian Peninsula, where human primary cases appear to dominate, vs. other regions in the Middle East and Africa, with no reported human clinical cases and where the virus has been detected only in dromedaries, represents huge scientific and health challenges. Here, we have used expert-opinion elicitation in order to obtain ideas on relative importance of MERS-CoV risk factors and estimates of transmission risks from various types of contact between humans and dromedaries. Fourteen experts with diverse and extensive experience in MERS-CoV relevant fields were enrolled and completed an online questionnaire that examined pathways based on several scenarios, e.g., camels–camels, camels–human, bats/other species to camels/humans, and the role of diverse biological substances (milk, urine, etc.) and potential fomites. Experts believed that dromedary camels play the largest role in MERS-CoV infection of other dromedaries; however, they also indicated a significant influence of the season (i.e. calving or weaning periods) on transmission risk. All experts thought that MERS-CoV-infected dromedaries and asymptomatic humans play the most important role in infection of humans, with bats and other species presenting a possible, but yet undefined, risk. Direct and indirect contact of humans with dromedary camels were identified as the most risky types of contact, when compared to consumption of various camel products, with estimated “most likely�

The why, the how and the when of PGS 2.0: current practices and expert opinions of fertility specialists, molecular biologists, and embryologists

PubMed Central

Sermon, Karen; Capalbo, Antonio; Cohen, Jacques; Coonen, Edith; De Rycke, Martine; De Vos, Anick; Delhanty, Joy; Fiorentino, Francesco; Gleicher, Norbert; Griesinger, Georg; Grifo, Jamie; Handyside, Alan; Harper, Joyce; Kokkali, Georgia; Mastenbroek, Sebastiaan; Meldrum, David; Meseguer, Marcos; Montag, Markus; Munné, Santiago; Rienzi, Laura; Rubio, Carmen; Scott, Katherine; Scott, Richard; Simon, Carlos; Swain, Jason; Treff, Nathan; Ubaldi, Filippo; Vassena, Rita; Vermeesch, Joris Robert; Verpoest, Willem; Wells, Dagan; Geraedts, Joep

2016-01-01

STUDY QUESTION We wanted to probe the opinions and current practices on preimplantation genetic screening (PGS), and more specifically on PGS in its newest form: PGS 2.0? STUDY FINDING Consensus is lacking on which patient groups, if any at all, can benefit from PGS 2.0 and, a fortiori, whether all IVF patients should be offered PGS. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY It is clear from all experts that PGS 2.0 can be defined as biopsy at the blastocyst stage followed by comprehensive chromosome screening and possibly combined with vitrification. Most agree that mosaicism is less of an issue at the blastocyst stage than at the cleavage stage but whether mosaicism is no issue at all at the blastocyst stage is currently called into question. STUDY DESIGN, SAMPLES/MATERIALS, METHODS A questionnaire was developed on the three major aspects of PGS 2.0: the Why, with general questions such as PGS 2.0 indications; the How, specifically on genetic analysis methods; the When, on the ideal method and timing of embryo biopsy. Thirty-five colleagues have been selected to address these questions on the basis of their experience with PGS, and demonstrated by peer-reviewed publications, presentations at meetings and participation in the discussion. The first group of experts who were asked about ‘The Why’ comprised fertility experts, the second group of molecular biologists were asked about ‘The How’ and the third group of embryologists were asked about ‘The When’. Furthermore, the geographical distribution of the experts has been taken into account. Thirty have filled in the questionnaire as well as actively participated in the redaction of the current paper. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE The 30 participants were from Europe (Belgium, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, UK) and the USA. Array comparative genome hybridization is the most widely used method amongst the participants, but it is slowly being replaced by massive parallel sequencing. Most participants

Integrating expert judgment in veterinary epidemiology: example guidance for disease freedom surveillance.

PubMed

Gustafson, L L; Gustafson, D H; Antognoli, M C; Remmenga, M D

2013-04-01

Expert opinions supplement empirical data in many epidemiologic assessments. For veterinary disease freedom surveillance, where the geographic scope of concern is often broad, populations subject to change, decisions eminent and empirical data, expert opinion can be a critical component of the decision making process. However, opinion is by definition subjective and the manner in which opinion is sought can impact the quality and reliability of estimates. Group interaction can hinder or improve the estimation process, depending on its facilitation. Further, whether and how validation is conducted can limit or increase acceptance of the resulting model. While the utility of expert opinion is widely recognized in many fields, and the impact of its use or misuse implicit, standards for application to veterinary assessments are not readily available. This paper aims to foster discussion on this influential component of epidemiology, with disease freedom application as a focus. Benefits and concerns attributed to expert judgment and guidelines for its structured elicitation are described, borrowing insights from its long history of use in decision science fields and examples from recent veterinary assessments. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Techniques for capturing expert knowledge - An expert systems/hypertext approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lafferty, Larry; Taylor, Greg; Schumann, Robin; Evans, Randy; Koller, Albert M., Jr.

1990-01-01

The knowledge-acquisition strategy developed for the Explosive Hazards Classification (EHC) Expert System is described in which expert systems and hypertext are combined, and broad applications are proposed. The EHC expert system is based on rapid prototyping in which primary knowledge acquisition from experts is not emphasized; the explosive hazards technical bulletin, technical guidance, and minimal interviewing are used to develop the knowledge-based system. Hypertext is used to capture the technical information with respect to four issues including procedural, materials, test, and classification issues. The hypertext display allows the integration of multiple knowlege representations such as clarifications or opinions, and thereby allows the performance of a broad range of tasks on a single machine. Among other recommendations, it is suggested that the integration of hypertext and expert systems makes the resulting synergistic system highly efficient.

Comprehensive embryo testing. Experts' opinions regarding future directions: an expert panel study on comprehensive embryo testing.

PubMed

Hens, Kristien; Dondorp, Wybo J; Geraedts, Joep P M; de Wert, Guido M

2013-05-01

What do scientists in the field of preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD) and preimplantation genetic screening (PGS) consider to be the future direction of comprehensive embryo testing? Although there are many biological and technical limitations, as well as uncertainties regarding the meaning of genetic variation, comprehensive embryo testing will impact the IVF/PGD practice and a timely ethical reflection is needed. Comprehensive testing using microarrays is currently being introduced in the context of PGD and PGS, and it is to be expected that whole-genome sequencing will also follow. Current ethical and empirical sociological research on embryo testing focuses on PGD as it is practiced now. However, empirical research and systematic reflection regarding the impact of comprehensive techniques for embryo testing is missing. In order to understand the potential of this technology and to be able to adequately foresee its implications, we held an expert panel with seven pioneers in PGD. We conducted an expert panel in October 2011 with seven PGD pioneers from Belgium, The Netherlands, Germany and the UK. Participants expected the use of comprehensive techniques in the context of PGD. However, the introduction of these techniques in embryo testing requires timely ethical reflection as it involves a shift from choosing an embryo without a particular genetic disease (i.e. PGD) or most likely to result in a successful pregnancy (i.e. PGS) to choosing the best embryo based on a much wider set of criteria. Such ethical reflection should take account of current technical and biological limitations and also of current uncertainties with regard to the meaning of genetic variance. However, ethicists should also not be afraid to look into the future. There was a general agreement that embryo testing will be increasingly preceded by comprehensive preconception screening, thus enabling smart combinations of genetic testing. The group was composed of seven participants from

Comparison of expert and nonexpert swimmers' opinions about the value, potency, and activity of four standard swimming strokes and underwater undulatory swimming.

PubMed

Collard, L; Oboeuf, A

2009-04-01

Underwater undulatory swimming (UUS) is often perceived to be a nonessential aspect of aquatic propulsion. Given their solid theoretical and practical training in swimming, physical education students should be capable of judging the true value of the "fifth stroke," since it appears to be the most efficient technique in high level, competitive swimming. To compare opinions and connotations associated with the stroke and the four official strokes (butterfly, backstroke, breaststroke, and crawl), 198 students (32 of whom were expert swimmers; M age = 20.6 yr., SD = 1.2), were surveyed using the semantic differential of Osgood, Suci, and Tannenbaum. Although answers of expert and nonexpert swimmers differed significantly (p < .01, except for the breaststroke), participants considered overall that undulatory stroke was less attractive, less powerful, and less rapid than the four surface strokes (d = 2.88 for the expert swimmers). Putting one arm in front of the other and repeating the sequence still remains the most solidly held representation of "the right way" to swim. However, the high observed standard deviations for the underwater undulatory stimulus (SD > or = 1.1 with SD max = 3 for the expert swimmers) attests to the view being less strongly held by swimming specialists.

Expert opinion on best practice guidelines and competency framework for visual screening in children.

PubMed

Lança, Carla

2013-09-01

Screening programs to detect visual abnormalities in children vary among countries. The aim of this study is to describe experts' perception of best practice guidelines and competency framework for visual screening in children. A qualitative focus group technique was applied during the Portuguese national orthoptic congress to obtain the perception of an expert panel of 5 orthoptists and 2 ophthalmologists with experience in visual screening for children (mean age 53.43 years, SD ± 9.40). The panel received in advance a script with the description of three tuning competencies dimensions (instrumental, systemic, and interpersonal) for visual screening. The session was recorded in video and audio. Qualitative data were analyzed using a categorical technique. According to experts' views, six tests (35.29%) have to be included in a visual screening: distance visual acuity test, cover test, bi-prism or 4/6(Δ) prism, fusion, ocular movements, and refraction. Screening should be performed according to the child age before and after 3 years of age (17.65%). The expert panel highlighted the influence of the professional experience in the application of a screening protocol (23.53%). They also showed concern about the false negatives control (23.53%). Instrumental competencies were the most cited (54.09%), followed by interpersonal (29.51%) and systemic (16.4%). Orthoptists should have professional experience before starting to apply a screening protocol. False negative results are a concern that has to be more thoroughly investigated. The proposed framework focuses on core competencies highlighted by the expert panel. Competencies programs could be important do develop better screening programs.

Ethical Issues in Expert Opinions and Testimony.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weed, Roger O.

2000-01-01

This article provides an overview of ethical issues in private for-profit practice, with particular focus on expert testimony, using examples from a sample of claims filed with the National Association of Rehabilitation Professionals in the Private Sector and malpractice insurance companies. Complaints most frequently involve issues related to…

Historical baselines of coral cover on tropical reefs as estimated by expert opinion

PubMed Central

Cheung, William W.L.; Bruno, John F.

2018-01-01

Coral reefs are important habitats that represent global marine biodiversity hotspots and provide important benefits to people in many tropical regions. However, coral reefs are becoming increasingly threatened by climate change, overfishing, habitat destruction, and pollution. Historical baselines of coral cover are important to understand how much coral cover has been lost, e.g., to avoid the ‘shifting baseline syndrome’. There are few quantitative observations of coral reef cover prior to the industrial revolution, and therefore baselines of coral reef cover are difficult to estimate. Here, we use expert and ocean-user opinion surveys to estimate baselines of global coral reef cover. The overall mean estimated baseline coral cover was 59% (±19% standard deviation), compared to an average of 58% (±18% standard deviation) estimated by professional scientists. We did not find evidence of the shifting baseline syndrome, whereby respondents who first observed coral reefs more recently report lower estimates of baseline coral cover. These estimates of historical coral reef baseline cover are important for scientists, policy makers, and managers to understand the extent to which coral reefs have become depleted and to set appropriate recovery targets. PMID:29379692

Historical baselines of coral cover on tropical reefs as estimated by expert opinion.

PubMed

Eddy, Tyler D; Cheung, William W L; Bruno, John F

2018-01-01

Coral reefs are important habitats that represent global marine biodiversity hotspots and provide important benefits to people in many tropical regions. However, coral reefs are becoming increasingly threatened by climate change, overfishing, habitat destruction, and pollution. Historical baselines of coral cover are important to understand how much coral cover has been lost, e.g., to avoid the 'shifting baseline syndrome'. There are few quantitative observations of coral reef cover prior to the industrial revolution, and therefore baselines of coral reef cover are difficult to estimate. Here, we use expert and ocean-user opinion surveys to estimate baselines of global coral reef cover. The overall mean estimated baseline coral cover was 59% (±19% standard deviation), compared to an average of 58% (±18% standard deviation) estimated by professional scientists. We did not find evidence of the shifting baseline syndrome, whereby respondents who first observed coral reefs more recently report lower estimates of baseline coral cover. These estimates of historical coral reef baseline cover are important for scientists, policy makers, and managers to understand the extent to which coral reefs have become depleted and to set appropriate recovery targets.

Experts' opinions on the management of medically unexplained symptoms in primary care. A qualitative analysis of narrative reviews and scientific editorials.

PubMed

Heijmans, Mieke; Olde Hartman, Tim C; van Weel-Baumgarten, Evelyn; Dowrick, Christopher; Lucassen, Peter L B J; van Weel, Chris

2011-08-01

The feasibility as well as the suitability of several therapies for medically unexplained symptoms (MUS) in primary care applied by the family physician (FP) appeared to be low. FPs need effective and acceptable strategies to manage these functionally impaired patients. To review important and effective elements in the treatment of patients with MUS in primary care according to experts in MUS research. We performed a systematic search of narrative reviews and scientific editorials in Medline and PsycINFO and triangulated our findings by conducting a focus group with MUS experts. We included 7 scientific editorials and 23 narrative reviews. According to MUS experts, the most important elements in the treatment of MUS are creating a safe therapeutic environment, generic interventions (such as motivational interviewing, giving tangible explanations, reassurance and regularly scheduled appointments) and specific interventions (such as cognitive approaches and pharmacotherapy). Furthermore, MUS experts indicate that a multi-component approach in which these three important elements are combined are most helpful for patients with MUS. In contrast to most specific interventions, opinions of MUS experts regarding generic interventions and creating a safe therapeutic relationship seem to be more based on theory and experience than on quantitative research. MUS experts highlight the importance of generic interventions and doctor-patient communication and relationship. However, studies showing the effectiveness of these elements in the management of MUS in primary care is still scarce. Research as well as medical practice should focus more on these non-specific aspects of the medical consultation.

Ten-Year Trends in Public Opinion from the "EDNEXT" Poll

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peterson, Paul E.; Henderson, Michael B.; West, Martin R.; Barrows, Samuel

2017-01-01

The year 2016 marks the 10th anniversary of the "Education Next" poll on K-12 education policy, offering "Education Next" the opportunity to take a retrospective look at public opinion on this vital topic. In 8 of the past 10 years, "Education Next" has also surveyed teachers on the subject and has seen some…

A comparison of two methods for expert elicitation in health technology assessments.

PubMed

Grigore, Bogdan; Peters, Jaime; Hyde, Christopher; Stein, Ken

2016-07-26

When data needed to inform parameters in decision models are lacking, formal elicitation of expert judgement can be used to characterise parameter uncertainty. Although numerous methods for eliciting expert opinion as probability distributions exist, there is little research to suggest whether one method is more useful than any other method. This study had three objectives: (i) to obtain subjective probability distributions characterising parameter uncertainty in the context of a health technology assessment; (ii) to compare two elicitation methods by eliciting the same parameters in different ways; (iii) to collect subjective preferences of the experts for the different elicitation methods used. Twenty-seven clinical experts were invited to participate in an elicitation exercise to inform a published model-based cost-effectiveness analysis of alternative treatments for prostate cancer. Participants were individually asked to express their judgements as probability distributions using two different methods - the histogram and hybrid elicitation methods - presented in a random order. Individual distributions were mathematically aggregated across experts with and without weighting. The resulting combined distributions were used in the probabilistic analysis of the decision model and mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and the expected values of perfect information (EVPI) were calculated for each method, and compared with the original cost-effectiveness analysis. Scores on the ease of use of the two methods and the extent to which the probability distributions obtained from each method accurately reflected the expert's opinion were also recorded. Six experts completed the task. Mean ICERs from the probabilistic analysis ranged between £162,600-£175,500 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) depending on the elicitation and weighting methods used. Compared to having no information, use of expert opinion decreased decision uncertainty: the EVPI value at the £30

Assessing the probability of introduction and spread of avian influenza (AI) virus in commercial Australian poultry operations using an expert opinion elicitation

PubMed Central

Toribio, Jenny-Ann; Scott, Angela Bullanday; Groves, Peter; Barnes, Belinda; Glass, Kathryn; Moloney, Barbara; Black, Amanda; Hernandez-Jover, Marta

2018-01-01

The objective of this study was to elicit experts’ opinions and gather estimates on the perceived probability of introduction and spread of avian influenza (AI) virus in the Australian broiler and layer industry. Using a modified Delphi method and a 4-step elicitation process, 11 experts were asked to give initial individual estimates for the various pathways and practices in the presented scenarios using a questionnaire. Following this, a workshop was conducted to present group averages of estimates and discussion was facilitated to obtain final individual estimates. For each question, estimates for all experts were combined using a discrete distribution, with weights allocated representing the level of expertise. Indirect contact with wild birds either via a contaminated water source or fomites was considered the most likely pathway of introduction of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) on poultry farms. Presence of a water body near the poultry farm was considered a potential pathway for introduction only when the operation type was free range and the water body was within 500m distance from the shed. The probability that LPAI will mutate to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) was considered to be higher in layer farms. Shared personnel, equipment and aerosol dispersion were the most likely pathways of shed to shed spread of the virus. For LPAI and HPAI spread from farm to farm, shared pick-up trucks for broiler and shared egg trays and egg pallets for layer farms were considered the most likely pathways. Findings from this study provide an insight on most influential practices on the introduction and spread of AI virus among commercial poultry farms in Australia, as elicited from opinions of experts. These findings will be used to support parameterization of a modelling study assessing the risk of AI introduction and spread among commercial poultry farms in Australia. PMID:29494696

Treatment of severe psoriasis in children: recommendations of an Italian expert group.

PubMed

Fortina, Anna Belloni; Bardazzi, Federico; Berti, Samantha; Carnevale, Claudia; Di Lernia, Vito; El Hachem, Maya; Neri, Iria; Gelmetti, Carlo Mario; Lora, Viviana; Mazzatenta, Carlo; Milioto, Mirella; Moretta, Gaia; Patrizi, Annalisa; Peris, Ketty; Villani, Alberto

2017-10-01

This article provides comprehensive recommendations for the systemic treatment of severe pediatric psoriasis based on evidence obtained from a systematic review of the literature and the consensus opinion of expert dermatologists and pediatricians. For each systemic treatment, the grade of recommendation (A, B, C) based on the treatment's approval by the European Medicines Agency for childhood psoriasis and the experts' opinions is discussed. The grade of recommendation for narrow-band-ultraviolet B phototherapy, cyclosporine, and retinoids is C, while that for methotrexate is C/B. The use of adalimumab, etanercept, and ustekinumab has a grade A recommendation. No conventional systemic treatments are approved for pediatric psoriasis. Adalimumab is approved by the European Medicines Agency as a first-line treatment for severe chronic plaque psoriasis in children (≥ 4 years old) and adolescents. Etanercept and ustekinumab are approved as second-line therapy in children ≥ 6 and ≥ 12 years, respectively. A treatment algorithm as well as practical tools (i.e., tabular summaries of differential diagnoses, treatment mechanism of actions, dosing regimens, control parameters) are provided to assist in therapeutic reasoning and decision-making for individual patients. These treatment recommendations are endorsed by major Italian Pediatric and Dermatology Societies. What is Known: • Guidelines for the treatment of severe pediatric psoriasis are lacking and most traditional systemic treatments are not approved for use in young patients. Although there has been decades of experience with some of the traditional agents such as phototherapy, acitretin, and cyclosporine in children, there are no RCTs on their pediatric use while RCTs investigating new biologic agents have been performed. What is New: • In this manuscript, an Italian multidisciplinary team of experts focused on treatment recommendations for severe forms of psoriasis in children based on an up

Medicine authentication technology as a counterfeit medicine-detection tool: a Delphi method study to establish expert opinion on manual medicine authentication technology in secondary care

PubMed Central

Naughton, Bernard; Roberts, Lindsey; Dopson, Sue; Brindley, David; Chapman, Stephen

2017-01-01

Objectives This study aims to establish expert opinion and potential improvements for the Falsified Medicines Directive mandated medicines authentication technology. Design and intervention A two-round Delphi method study using an online questionnaire. Setting Large National Health Service (NHS) foundation trust teaching hospital. Participants Secondary care pharmacists and accredited checking technicians. Primary outcome measures Seven-point rating scale answers which reached a consensus of 70–80% with a standard deviation (SD) of <1.0. Likert scale questions which reached a consensus of 70–80%, a SD of <1.0 and classified as important according to study criteria. Results Consensus expert opinion has described database cross-checking technology as quick and user friendly and suggested the inclusion of an audio signal to further support the detection of counterfeit medicines in secondary care (70% consensus, 0.9 SD); other important consensus with a SD of <1.0 included reviewing the colour and information in warning pop up screens to ensure they were not mistaken for the ‘already dispensed here’ pop up, encouraging the dispenser/checker to act on the warnings and making it mandatory to complete an ‘action taken’ documentation process to improve the quarantine of potentially counterfeit, expired or recalled medicines. Conclusions This paper informs key opinion leaders and decision makers as to the positives and negatives of medicines authentication technology from an operator's perspective and suggests the adjustments which may be required to improve operator compliance and the detection of counterfeit medicines in the secondary care sector. PMID:28478398

Precision in Setting Cancer Prevention Priorities: Synthesis of Data, Literature, and Expert Opinion.

PubMed

Girschik, Jennifer; Miller, Laura Jean; Addiscott, Tony; Daube, Mike; Katris, Paul; Ransom, David; Slevin, Terry; Threlfall, Tim; Weeramanthri, Tarun Stephen

2017-01-01

Cancer will continue to be a leading cause of ill health and death unless we can capitalize on the potential for 30-40% of these cancers to be prevented. In this light, cancer prevention represents an enormous opportunity for public health, potentially saving much of the pain, anguish, and cost associated with treating cancer. However, there is a challenge for governments, and the wider community, in prioritizing cancer prevention activities, especially given increasing financial constraints. This paper describes a method for identifying cancer prevention priorities. This method synthesizes detailed cancer statistics, expert opinion, and the published literature for the priority setting process. The process contains four steps: assessing the impact of cancer types; identifying cancers with the greatest impact; considering opportunities for prevention; and combining information on impact and preventability. The strength of our approach is that it is straightforward, transparent and reproducible for other settings. Applying this method in Western Australia produced a priority list of seven adult cancers which were identified as having not only the biggest impact on the community but also the best opportunities for prevention. Work conducted in an additional project phase went on to present data on these priority cancers to a public consultation and develop an agenda for action in cancer prevention.

Precision in Setting Cancer Prevention Priorities: Synthesis of Data, Literature, and Expert Opinion

PubMed Central

Girschik, Jennifer; Miller, Laura Jean; Addiscott, Tony; Daube, Mike; Katris, Paul; Ransom, David; Slevin, Terry; Threlfall, Tim; Weeramanthri, Tarun Stephen

2017-01-01

Cancer will continue to be a leading cause of ill health and death unless we can capitalize on the potential for 30–40% of these cancers to be prevented. In this light, cancer prevention represents an enormous opportunity for public health, potentially saving much of the pain, anguish, and cost associated with treating cancer. However, there is a challenge for governments, and the wider community, in prioritizing cancer prevention activities, especially given increasing financial constraints. This paper describes a method for identifying cancer prevention priorities. This method synthesizes detailed cancer statistics, expert opinion, and the published literature for the priority setting process. The process contains four steps: assessing the impact of cancer types; identifying cancers with the greatest impact; considering opportunities for prevention; and combining information on impact and preventability. The strength of our approach is that it is straightforward, transparent and reproducible for other settings. Applying this method in Western Australia produced a priority list of seven adult cancers which were identified as having not only the biggest impact on the community but also the best opportunities for prevention. Work conducted in an additional project phase went on to present data on these priority cancers to a public consultation and develop an agenda for action in cancer prevention. PMID:28634579

Opinions of University Music Teachers on the Musical Competencies Necessary for Primary Education Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Begic, Jasna Šulentic; Begic, Amir; Škojo, Tihana

2017-01-01

This paper describes the research conducted in the Republic of Croatia during the 2012/13 academic year. We have gathered opinions from experts, i.e. teaching methods teachers from seven faculties of teacher education, regarding the music teaching competencies necessary for primary education teachers teaching music in the first several grades of…

29 CFR 18.701 - Opinion testimony by lay witnesses.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 29 Labor 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Opinion testimony by lay witnesses. 18.701 Section 18.701 Labor Office of the Secretary of Labor RULES OF PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE FOR ADMINISTRATIVE HEARINGS... Opinion testimony by lay witnesses. If the witness is not testifying as an expert, the witness' testimony...

Physical examination and laboratory tests in the management of patients with rheumatoid arthritis: development of recommendations for clinical practice based on published evidence and expert opinion.

PubMed

Pham, Thao; Gossec, Laure; Fautrel, Bruno; Combe, Bernard; Flipo, René-Marc; Goupille, Philippe; Le Loët, Xavier; Mariette, Xavier; Puéchal, Xavier; Wendling, Daniel; Schaeverbeke, Thierry; Sibilia, Jean; Sany, Jacques; Dougados, Maxime

2005-05-01

To develop recommendations for the physical and laboratory-test follow-up of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) seen in everyday practice, using evidence from the literature, supplemented with expert opinion when needed. A scientific committee selected 7-10 questions using the Delphi consensus procedure. Evidence-based responses to each question were sought in the literature and were then used by a panel to develop recommendations. To fill in gaps in knowledge from the literature, the panelists relied on their personal opinion. The seven questions dealt with the physical and laboratory-test follow-up of RA and the factors predicting disease severity. The literature review identified 799 articles whose title and abstract suggested relevance to the study. Elimination of articles that provided no data on the study topic left 128 original articles. The panel developed seven recommendations, one for each question, which were accepted by consensus. Recommendations about the physical and laboratory-test follow-up of patients with RA seen in everyday practice were developed. Because they constitute an objective foundation built by consensus among experts, should improve the uniformity and quality of care provided to RA patients in everyday practice.

Expert opinions of the first italian consensus conference on the management of malignant pleural mesothelioma.

PubMed

Pinto, Carmine; Ardizzoni, Andrea; Betta, Pier Giacomo; Facciolo, Francesco; Tassi, Gianfranco; Tonoli, Sandro; Zompatori, Maurizio; Alessandrini, Gabriele; Magrini, Stefano Maria; Tiseo, Marcello; Mutri, Vita

2011-02-01

Malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is a very important public health issue. A large amount of data indicates a relationship between mesothelioma and asbestos exposure. The incidence has both considerably and constantly increased over the past 2 decades in the industrialized countries and is expected to peak in 2010-2020. In Italy, a standardized-rate incidence in 2002 among men was 2.98 per 100,000 and 0.98 per 100,000 among women, with wide differences from one region to another. Stage diagnosis and definition may be difficult. Management of patients with MPM remains complex, so an optimal treatment strategy has not yet been clearly defined. The First Italian Consensus Conference on Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma was held Bologna (Italy) in May 20, 2008. The Consensus Conference was given the patronage of the Italian scientific societies AIOM, AIRO, AIPO, SIC, SICO, SICT, SIAPEC-IAP, AIOT, GOAM, and GIME. This Consensus did not answer all of the unresolved questions in MPM management, but the Expert Opinions have nonetheless provided recommendations, presented in this report, on MPM management for clinicians and patients.

Expert Opinions on Nutrition Issues in Clinical Dentistry.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Palmer, Carole A.; And Others

1990-01-01

A survey of 79 experts in dental nutrition sought consensus on the appropriate scope of nutrition in clinical dentistry. Results support the need for greater attention to nutrition issues in dental schools and better models for nutrition interventions in dental practice. (Author/MSE)

38 CFR 3.328 - lndependent medical opinions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... would be harmful to the physical or mental health of the claimant, disclosure shall be subject to the... experts who are not employees of VA. Opinions shall be obtained from recognized medical schools...

Medicine authentication technology as a counterfeit medicine-detection tool: a Delphi method study to establish expert opinion on manual medicine authentication technology in secondary care.

PubMed

Naughton, Bernard; Roberts, Lindsey; Dopson, Sue; Brindley, David; Chapman, Stephen

2017-05-06

This study aims to establish expert opinion and potential improvements for the Falsified Medicines Directive mandated medicines authentication technology. A two-round Delphi method study using an online questionnaire. Large National Health Service (NHS) foundation trust teaching hospital. Secondary care pharmacists and accredited checking technicians. Seven-point rating scale answers which reached a consensus of 70-80% with a standard deviation (SD) of <1.0. Likert scale questions which reached a consensus of 70-80%, a SD of <1.0 and classified as important according to study criteria. Consensus expert opinion has described database cross-checking technology as quick and user friendly and suggested the inclusion of an audio signal to further support the detection of counterfeit medicines in secondary care (70% consensus, 0.9 SD); other important consensus with a SD of <1.0 included reviewing the colour and information in warning pop up screens to ensure they were not mistaken for the 'already dispensed here' pop up, encouraging the dispenser/checker to act on the warnings and making it mandatory to complete an 'action taken' documentation process to improve the quarantine of potentially counterfeit, expired or recalled medicines. This paper informs key opinion leaders and decision makers as to the positives and negatives of medicines authentication technology from an operator's perspective and suggests the adjustments which may be required to improve operator compliance and the detection of counterfeit medicines in the secondary care sector. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Hip arthroscopy protocol: expert opinions on post-operative weight bearing and return to sports guidelines.

PubMed

Rath, Ehud; Sharfman, Zachary T; Paret, Matan; Amar, Eyal; Drexler, Michael; Bonin, Nicolas

2017-01-01

The objectives of this study are to survey the weight-bearing limitation practices and delay for returning to running and impact sports of high volume hip arthroscopy orthopedic surgeons. The study was designed in the form of expert survey questionnaire. Evidence-based data are scares regarding hip arthroscopy post-operative weight-bearing protocols. An international cross-sectional anonymous Internet survey of 26 high-volume hip arthroscopy specialized surgeons was conducted to report their weight-bearing limitations and rehabilitation protocols after various arthroscopic hip procedures. The International Society of Hip Arthroscopy invited this study. The results were examined in the context of supporting literature to inform the studies suggestions. Four surgeons always allow immediate weight bearing and five never offer immediate weight bearing. Seventeen surgeons provide weight bearing depending on the procedures performed: 17 surgeons allowed immediate weight bearing after labral resection, 10 after labral repair and 8 after labral reconstruction. Sixteen surgeons allow immediate weight bearing after psoas tenotomy. Twenty-one respondents restrict weight bearing after microfracture procedures for 3-8 weeks post-operatively. Return to running and impact sports were shorter for labral procedures and bony procedures and longer for cartilaginous and capsular procedures. Marked variability exists in the post-operative weight-bearing practices of hip arthroscopy surgeons. This study suggests that most surgeons allow immediate weight bearing as tolerated after labral resection, acetabular osteoplasty, chondroplasty and psoas tenotomy. For cartilage defect procedures, 6 weeks or more non-weight bearing is suggested depending on the area of the defect and lateral central edge angle. Delayed return to sports activities is suggested after microfracture procedures. The level of evidence was Level V expert opinions.

Hip arthroscopy protocol: expert opinions on post-operative weight bearing and return to sports guidelines

PubMed Central

Rath, Ehud; Paret, Matan; Amar, Eyal; Drexler, Michael; Bonin, Nicolas

2017-01-01

Abstract The objectives of this study are to survey the weight-bearing limitation practices and delay for returning to running and impact sports of high volume hip arthroscopy orthopedic surgeons. The study was designed in the form of expert survey questionnaire. Evidence-based data are scares regarding hip arthroscopy post-operative weight-bearing protocols. An international cross-sectional anonymous Internet survey of 26 high-volume hip arthroscopy specialized surgeons was conducted to report their weight-bearing limitations and rehabilitation protocols after various arthroscopic hip procedures. The International Society of Hip Arthroscopy invited this study. The results were examined in the context of supporting literature to inform the studies suggestions. Four surgeons always allow immediate weight bearing and five never offer immediate weight bearing. Seventeen surgeons provide weight bearing depending on the procedures performed: 17 surgeons allowed immediate weight bearing after labral resection, 10 after labral repair and 8 after labral reconstruction. Sixteen surgeons allow immediate weight bearing after psoas tenotomy. Twenty-one respondents restrict weight bearing after microfracture procedures for 3–8 weeks post-operatively. Return to running and impact sports were shorter for labral procedures and bony procedures and longer for cartilaginous and capsular procedures. Marked variability exists in the post-operative weight-bearing practices of hip arthroscopy surgeons. This study suggests that most surgeons allow immediate weight bearing as tolerated after labral resection, acetabular osteoplasty, chondroplasty and psoas tenotomy. For cartilage defect procedures, 6 weeks or more non-weight bearing is suggested depending on the area of the defect and lateral central edge angle. Delayed return to sports activities is suggested after microfracture procedures. The level of evidence was Level V expert opinions. PMID:28630722

School Construction Management: Expert Administrators Speak.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fickes, Michael

2001-01-01

Presents expert opinion on school construction management communication concerning educational needs, obtaining consensus among diverse groups, and envisioning what schools must offer in the future. Why furniture issues are also important is highlighted. (GR)

[Medical data security in medico-legal opinioning].

PubMed

Susło, Robert; Swiatek, Barbara

2005-01-01

Medical data security can be approached in medico-legal opinioning in three main situations: security of medical data, on which the opinion should be based, opinioning itself and whether the medical data security was properly ensured and ensuring medical data security during medico-legal opinion giving. The importance of medical data security, during collecting, processing and storing, as well in medical as in legal institutions, is of major importance for the possibility of providing a proper medico-legal opinion. Theoretically speeking, it is possible to give a proper medico-legal opinion using incorrect data, but the possibility is low. When the expert is given improper, unreadable, incomplete or even bogus in part or in the whole medical data it is extremely possible, that he fails in giving his opinion. The term "medical data" was defined and subsequently there was a brief review of medical data storing methods made and specific threats bound with them, based on modern literature. The authors also pointed out possible methods of preventing the threats. They listed Polish as well as international regulations and laws concerning the problem, accenting the importance of preserving medical data for the purposes of medico-legal opinioning.

Experts' Views Regarding the Conceptualization of Narcissism.

PubMed

Ackerman, Robert A; Hands, Aaron J; Donnellan, M Brent; Hopwood, Christopher J; Witt, Edward A

2017-06-01

There is debate over the definition of narcissism across social/personality and clinical psychology. The current article aims to quantify the level of disagreement by measuring experts' opinions concerning the attributes most central to narcissism. Accordingly, we developed a comprehensive list of attributes associated with narcissism and had 49 self-identified experts (among them 17 women, 23 psychologists from clinical psychology and 22 from social/personality psychology) rate these characteristics and provide their opinions on several issues related to the conceptualization of narcissism. Experts generally believe that the grandiose features of narcissism are more central than the vulnerable features. However, differences between clinical and social/personality psychologists were evident, especially regarding the relevance of self-esteem. Given the results, we suggest that researchers specify the kind of narcissism being assessed in a given study and consider using assessments of the full range of narcissistic features in future research to provide a more comprehensive perspective on the construct.

[Professionalization of Legal Dental Experts in Germany: Results of Studies on Structured Focus Groups].

PubMed

Brauer, H U; Walther, W; Dick, M

2018-04-01

Legal expert opinions are a crucial instrument of professional self-control in medicine. To give impulses for further development, focus groups were initiated to reflect upon the perspective of legal dental experts. 5 focus group discussions on the topic "Professionalization of legal dental experts" were conducted. A total of 32 experienced legal dental experts participated in the discussions. The results were evaluated by qualitative content analysis. A catalogue of 68 ideas was generated for improvement and divided into 15 categories. Among these were periodic quality circles, interprofessional exchange, supervision of novices and periodic feedback for legal dental experts and dentists. Self-reflection can be included as an instrument for quality improvement of legal dental expert opinions. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Personalised, predictive and preventive medication process in hospitals—still rather missing: professional opinion survey on medication safety in Czech hospitals (based on professional opinions of recognised Czech health care experts)

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

The survey had the following aims: (1) to rationalise the hypothesis that risks and losses relating to medication process' errors in Czech hospitals are at least comparable with the other developed countries and EU countries especially, (2) to get a valid professional opinion/estimate on the rate of adverse drug events happening in Czech hospitals, (3) to point out that medication errors represent real and serious risks and (4) to induce the hospital management readiness to execute fundamental changes and improvements to medication processes. We read through a lot of studies inquiring into hospitals' medication safety. Then, we selected the studies which brought reliable findings and formulated credible conclusions. Finally, we addressed reputable Czech experts in health care and asked them structured questions whether the studies' findings and conclusions corresponded with our respondents' own experience in the Czech hospital clinical practice and what their own estimates of adverse drug events' consequences were like. Based on the reputable Czech health care expert opinions/estimates, the rate of a false drug administration may exceed 5%, and over 7% of those cause serious health complications to Czech hospital inpatients. Measured by an average length of stay (ALOS), the Czech inpatients, harmed by a false drug administration, stay in hospital for more than 2.6 days longer than necessary. Any positive changes to a currently used, traditional, ways of drug dispensing and administration, along with computerisation, automation, electronic traceability, validation, or verification, must well pay off. Referring to the above results, it seems to be wise to follow the EU priorities in health and health care improvements. Thus, a right usage of the financial means provided by the EC—in terms of its new health programmes for the period 2014–2020 (e.g. Horizon 2020)—has a good chance of a good result in doing the right things right, at the right time and in the

Efficiency and factors influencing efficiency of Community Health Strategy in providing Maternal and Child Health services in Mwingi District, Kenya: an expert opinion perspective

PubMed Central

Nzioki, Japheth Mativo; Onyango, Rosebella Ogutu; Ombaka, James Herbert

2015-01-01

Introduction Community Health Strategy (CHS) is a new Primary Health Care (PHC) model in Kenya, designed to provide PHC services in Kenya. In 2011, CHS was initiated in Mwingi district as one of the components of APHIA plus kamili program. The objectives of this study was to evaluate the efficiency of the CHS in providing MCH services in Mwingi district and to establish the factors influencing efficiency of the CHS in providing MCH services in the district. Methods This was a qualitative study. Fifteen Key informants were sampled from key stakeholders. Sampling was done using purposive and maximum variation sampling methods. Semi-structured in-depth interviews were used for data collection. Data was managed and analyzed using NVIVO. Framework analysis and quasi statistics were used in data analysis. Results Expert opinion data indicated that the CHS was efficient in providing MCH services. Factors influencing efficiency of the CHS in provision of MCH services were: challenges facing Community Health Workers (CHWs), Social cultural and economic factors influencing MCH in the district, and motivation among CHWs. Conclusion Though CHS was found to be efficient in providing MCH services, this was an expert opinion perspective, a quantitative Cost Effectiveness Analysis (CEA) to confirm these findings is recommended. To improve efficiency of the CHS in the district, challenges facing CHWs and Social cultural and economic factors that influence efficiency of the CHS in the district need to be addressed. PMID:26090046

Lay Evaluation of Financial Experts: The Action Advice Effect and Confirmation Bias.

PubMed

Zaleskiewicz, Tomasz; Gasiorowska, Agata; Stasiuk, Katarzyna; Maksymiuk, Renata; Bar-Tal, Yoram

2016-01-01

The goal of this experimental project was to investigate lay peoples' perceptions of epistemic authority (EA) in the field of finance. EA is defined as the extent to which a source of information is treated as evidence for judgments independently of its objective expertise and based on subjective beliefs. Previous research suggested that EA evaluations are biased and that lay people tend to ascribe higher EA to experts who advise action (in the case of medical experts) or confirm clients' expectations (in the case of politicians). However, there has been no research into biases in lay evaluations of financial experts and this project is aimed to fill this gap. Experiment 1 showed that lay people tended to ascribe greater authority to financial consultants who gave more active advice to clients considering taking out a mortgage. Experiment 2 confirmed the action advice effect found in Experiment 1. However, the outcomes of Experiments 2 and - particularly - 3 suggested that this bias might also be due to clients' desire to confirm their own opinions. Experiment 2 showed that the action advice effect was moderated by clients' own opinions on taking loans. Lay people ascribed the greatest EA to the advisor in the scenario in which he advised taking action and where this coincided with the client's positive opinion on the advisability of taking out a loan. In Experiment 3 only participants with a positive opinion on the financial product ascribed greater authority to experts who recommended it; participants whose opinion was negative tended to rate consultants who advised rejecting the product more highly. To conclude, these three experiments revealed that lay people ascribe higher EA to financial consultants who advise action rather than maintenance of the status quo , but this effect is limited by confirmation bias: when the client's a priori opinion is salient, greater authority is ascribed to experts whose advice confirms it. In this sense, results presented in the

Lay Evaluation of Financial Experts: The Action Advice Effect and Confirmation Bias

PubMed Central

Zaleskiewicz, Tomasz; Gasiorowska, Agata; Stasiuk, Katarzyna; Maksymiuk, Renata; Bar-Tal, Yoram

2016-01-01

The goal of this experimental project was to investigate lay peoples’ perceptions of epistemic authority (EA) in the field of finance. EA is defined as the extent to which a source of information is treated as evidence for judgments independently of its objective expertise and based on subjective beliefs. Previous research suggested that EA evaluations are biased and that lay people tend to ascribe higher EA to experts who advise action (in the case of medical experts) or confirm clients’ expectations (in the case of politicians). However, there has been no research into biases in lay evaluations of financial experts and this project is aimed to fill this gap. Experiment 1 showed that lay people tended to ascribe greater authority to financial consultants who gave more active advice to clients considering taking out a mortgage. Experiment 2 confirmed the action advice effect found in Experiment 1. However, the outcomes of Experiments 2 and – particularly – 3 suggested that this bias might also be due to clients’ desire to confirm their own opinions. Experiment 2 showed that the action advice effect was moderated by clients’ own opinions on taking loans. Lay people ascribed the greatest EA to the advisor in the scenario in which he advised taking action and where this coincided with the client’s positive opinion on the advisability of taking out a loan. In Experiment 3 only participants with a positive opinion on the financial product ascribed greater authority to experts who recommended it; participants whose opinion was negative tended to rate consultants who advised rejecting the product more highly. To conclude, these three experiments revealed that lay people ascribe higher EA to financial consultants who advise action rather than maintenance of the status quo, but this effect is limited by confirmation bias: when the client’s a priori opinion is salient, greater authority is ascribed to experts whose advice confirms it. In this sense, results

Exploring expert opinion on the practicality and effectiveness of biosecurity measures on dairy farms in the United Kingdom using choice modeling.

PubMed

Shortall, Orla; Green, Martin; Brennan, Marnie; Wapenaar, Wendela; Kaler, Jasmeet

2017-03-01

Biosecurity, defined as a series of measures aiming to stop disease-causing agents entering or leaving an area where farm animals are present, is very important for the continuing economic viability of the United Kingdom dairy sector, and for animal welfare. This study gathered expert opinion from farmers, veterinarians, consultants, academics, and government and industry representatives on the practicality and effectiveness of different biosecurity measures on dairy farms. The study used best-worst scaling, a technique that allows for greater discrimination between choices and avoids the variability in interpretation associated with other methods, such as Likert scales and ranking methods. Keeping a closed herd was rated as the most effective measure overall, and maintaining regular contact with the veterinarian was the most practical measure. Measures relating to knowledge, planning, and veterinary involvement; buying-in practices; and quarantine and treatment scored highly for effectiveness overall. Measures relating to visitors, equipment, pest control, and hygiene scored much lower for effectiveness. Overall, measures relating to direct animal-to-animal contact scored much higher for effectiveness than measures relating to indirect disease transmission. Some of the most effective measures were also rated as the least practical, such as keeping a closed herd and avoiding nose-to-nose contact between contiguous animals, suggesting that real barriers exist for farmers when implementing biosecurity measures on dairy farms. We observed heterogeneity in expert opinion on biosecurity measures; for example, veterinarians rated the effectiveness of consulting the veterinarian on biosecurity significantly more highly than dairy farmers, suggesting a greater need for veterinarians to promote their services on-farm. Still, both groups rated it as a practical measure, suggesting that the farmer-veterinarian relationship holds some advantages for the promotion of

Survey of Expert Opinion on Intelligence and Aptitude Testing.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Snyderman, Mark; Rothman, Stanley

1987-01-01

Psychologists and educational specialists with expertise in areas related to intelligence testing responded to a questionnaire dealing with possible racial and socioeconomic bias of IQ tests. Overall, experts hold positive attitudes about the validity and usefulness of intelligence and aptitude tests. (Author/LHW)

Explosion probability of unexploded ordnance: expert beliefs.

PubMed

MacDonald, Jacqueline Anne; Small, Mitchell J; Morgan, M G

2008-08-01

This article reports on a study to quantify expert beliefs about the explosion probability of unexploded ordnance (UXO). Some 1,976 sites at closed military bases in the United States are contaminated with UXO and are slated for cleanup, at an estimated cost of $15-140 billion. Because no available technology can guarantee 100% removal of UXO, information about explosion probability is needed to assess the residual risks of civilian reuse of closed military bases and to make decisions about how much to invest in cleanup. This study elicited probability distributions for the chance of UXO explosion from 25 experts in explosive ordnance disposal, all of whom have had field experience in UXO identification and deactivation. The study considered six different scenarios: three different types of UXO handled in two different ways (one involving children and the other involving construction workers). We also asked the experts to rank by sensitivity to explosion 20 different kinds of UXO found at a case study site at Fort Ord, California. We found that the experts do not agree about the probability of UXO explosion, with significant differences among experts in their mean estimates of explosion probabilities and in the amount of uncertainty that they express in their estimates. In three of the six scenarios, the divergence was so great that the average of all the expert probability distributions was statistically indistinguishable from a uniform (0, 1) distribution-suggesting that the sum of expert opinion provides no information at all about the explosion risk. The experts' opinions on the relative sensitivity to explosion of the 20 UXO items also diverged. The average correlation between rankings of any pair of experts was 0.41, which, statistically, is barely significant (p= 0.049) at the 95% confidence level. Thus, one expert's rankings provide little predictive information about another's rankings. The lack of consensus among experts suggests that empirical studies

Expert opinions on optimal enforcement of minimum purchase age laws for tobacco.

PubMed

Levy, D T; Chaloupka, F; Slater, S

2000-05-01

A questionnaire on how youth access laws should be enforced was sent to 20 experts who had administered and/or evaluated a youth access enforcement program. Respondents agreed on the need for a high level of retail compliance, checkers representative of the community, checks at least twice per year, a graduated penalty structure with license revocation, and bans on self-service and vending machines. Respondents indicated the need for research on the effects of ID use, frequency of checks, penalty structures, and the effects on smoking rates of youth access policies alone and in conjunction with other tobacco control policies.

Weighing In: The Taste-Engineering Frame in Obesity Expert Discourse

PubMed Central

Zimmerman, Frederick J.; Gilliam, Franklin D.

2015-01-01

Objectives. We sought expert opinion on the problems with 2 dominant obesity-prevention discourse frames—personal responsibility and the environment—and examined alternative frames for understanding and addressing obesity. Methods. We conducted 60-minute, semistructured interviews with 15 US-based obesity experts. We manually coded and entered interview transcripts into software, generating themes and subthematic areas that captured the debate’s essence. Results. Although the environmental frame is the dominant model used in communications with the public and policymakers, several experts found that communicating key messages within this frame was difficult because of the enormity of the obesity problem. A subframe of the environmental frame—the taste-engineering frame—identifies food industry strategies to influence the overconsumption of certain foods and beverages. This emerging frame deconstructs the environmental frame so that causal attributes and responsible agents are more easily identifiable and proposed policies and public health interventions more salient. Conclusions. Expert interviews are an invaluable resource for understanding how experts use frames in discussing their work and in conversations with the public and policymakers. Future empirical studies testing the effectiveness of the taste-engineering frame on public opinion and support for structural-level health policies are needed. PMID:25602888

Weighing in: the taste-engineering frame in obesity expert discourse.

PubMed

Ortiz, Selena E; Zimmerman, Frederick J; Gilliam, Franklin D

2015-03-01

We sought expert opinion on the problems with 2 dominant obesity-prevention discourse frames-personal responsibility and the environment-and examined alternative frames for understanding and addressing obesity. We conducted 60-minute, semistructured interviews with 15 US-based obesity experts. We manually coded and entered interview transcripts into software, generating themes and subthematic areas that captured the debate's essence. Although the environmental frame is the dominant model used in communications with the public and policymakers, several experts found that communicating key messages within this frame was difficult because of the enormity of the obesity problem. A subframe of the environmental frame--the taste-engineering frame--identifies food industry strategies to influence the overconsumption of certain foods and beverages. This emerging frame deconstructs the environmental frame so that causal attributes and responsible agents are more easily identifiable and proposed policies and public health interventions more salient. Expert interviews are an invaluable resource for understanding how experts use frames in discussing their work and in conversations with the public and policymakers. Future empirical studies testing the effectiveness of the taste-engineering frame on public opinion and support for structural-level health policies are needed.

Legal Decisions and Opinions in Pollution Cases

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hills, John P.

1976-01-01

When dealing with the "frontier of scientific knowledge" and questions of public health, United States courts are waiving traditional burdens of proof, giving increased weight to expert opinions and/or lowering their standard of necessary proof. Recent cases involving asbestos, pesticides, lead in gasoline, and vinyl chlorides are discussed. (BT)

Factors Influencing Continuing Professional Development: A Delphi Study among Nursing Experts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brekelmans, Gerard; Poell, Rob F.; van Wijk, Kees

2013-01-01

Purpose: The aim of this paper is to present an inventory of expert opinions on the factors that influence the participation of registered nurses in continuing professional development (CPD) activities. Design/methodology/approach: A Delphi study was conducted among 38 Dutch experts (nursing employers, managers, education institutions, and…

[Definition of endometriosis expert centres].

PubMed

Chanavaz-Lacheray, I; Darai, E; Descamps, P; Agostini, A; Poilblanc, M; Rousset, P; Bolze, P-A; Panel, P; Collinet, P; Hebert, T; Graesslin, O; Martigny, H; Brun, J-L; Dechaud, H; Mezan De Malartic, C; Piechon, L; Wattiez, A; Chapron, C; Golfier, F

2018-03-01

The Collège national des gynécologues obstétriciens français (CNGOF), in agreement with the Société de chirurgie gynécologique et pelvienne (SCGP), has set up a commission in 2017 to define endometriosis expert centres, with the aim of optimizing endometriosis care in France. The committee included members from university and general hospitals as well as private facilities, representing medical, surgical and radiological aspects of endometriosis care. Opinion of endometriosis patients' associations was obtained prior to writing this work. The final text was presented and unanimously validated by the members of the CNGOF Board of Directors at its meeting of October 13, 2017. Based on analysis of current management of endometriosis and the last ten years opportunities in France, the committee has been able to define the contours of endometriosis expert centres. The objectives, production specifications, mode of operation, missions and funding for these centres were described. The following missions have been specifically defined: territorial organization, global and referral care, communication and teaching as well as research and evaluation. Because of its daily impact for women and its economic burden in France, endometriosis justifies launching of expert centres throughout the country with formal accreditation by health authorities, ideally as part of the National Health Plan. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Defining Sustainable Universities Following Public Opinion Formation Process

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zaptcioglu Celikdemir, Deniz; Gunay, Gonca; Katrinli, Alev; Penbek Alpbaz, Sebnem

2017-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to define the sustainable university in Turkey, by considering perspectives of various stakeholders such as experts, intellectual, public, political parties and media using public opinion formation analysis. The paper aims to re-define the "sustainable university" with all dimensions including…

Communicating Chemical Risks for Social Learning: Findings from an Expert Opinion Survey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lyytimaki, Jari; Assmuth, Timo; Hilden, Mikael

2009-01-01

Environmental and health risks caused by chemical substances have been intensively debated in various arenas of science and policy, and in news media. The impacts of risk debates on the public have been widely studied, while less attention has been paid to expert views. We present results from a cross-national survey charting expert views on the…

Expert Opinion on Three Phage Therapy Related Topics: Bacterial Phage Resistance, Phage Training and Prophages in Bacterial Production Strains.

PubMed

Rohde, Christine; Resch, Grégory; Pirnay, Jean-Paul; Blasdel, Bob G; Debarbieux, Laurent; Gelman, Daniel; Górski, Andrzej; Hazan, Ronen; Huys, Isabelle; Kakabadze, Elene; Łobocka, Małgorzata; Maestri, Alice; Almeida, Gabriel Magno de Freitas; Makalatia, Khatuna; Malik, Danish J; Mašlaňová, Ivana; Merabishvili, Maia; Pantucek, Roman; Rose, Thomas; Štveráková, Dana; Van Raemdonck, Hilde; Verbeken, Gilbert; Chanishvili, Nina

2018-04-05

Phage therapy is increasingly put forward as a "new" potential tool in the fight against antibiotic resistant infections. During the "Centennial Celebration of Bacteriophage Research" conference in Tbilisi, Georgia on 26-29 June 2017, an international group of phage researchers committed to elaborate an expert opinion on three contentious phage therapy related issues that are hampering clinical progress in the field of phage therapy. This paper explores and discusses bacterial phage resistance, phage training and the presence of prophages in bacterial production strains while reviewing relevant research findings and experiences. Our purpose is to inform phage therapy stakeholders such as policy makers, officials of the competent authorities for medicines, phage researchers and phage producers, and members of the pharmaceutical industry. This brief also points out potential avenues for future phage therapy research and development as it specifically addresses those overarching questions that currently call for attention whenever phages go into purification processes for application.

Expert Opinion on Three Phage Therapy Related Topics: Bacterial Phage Resistance, Phage Training and Prophages in Bacterial Production Strains

PubMed Central

Rohde, Christine; Resch, Grégory; Blasdel, Bob G.; Gelman, Daniel; Górski, Andrzej; Hazan, Ronen; Huys, Isabelle; Kakabadze, Elene; Łobocka, Małgorzata; Maestri, Alice; Makalatia, Khatuna; Malik, Danish J.; Mašlaňová, Ivana; Merabishvili, Maia; Rose, Thomas; Štveráková, Dana; Van Raemdonck, Hilde; Verbeken, Gilbert; Chanishvili, Nina

2018-01-01

Phage therapy is increasingly put forward as a “new” potential tool in the fight against antibiotic resistant infections. During the “Centennial Celebration of Bacteriophage Research” conference in Tbilisi, Georgia on 26–29 June 2017, an international group of phage researchers committed to elaborate an expert opinion on three contentious phage therapy related issues that are hampering clinical progress in the field of phage therapy. This paper explores and discusses bacterial phage resistance, phage training and the presence of prophages in bacterial production strains while reviewing relevant research findings and experiences. Our purpose is to inform phage therapy stakeholders such as policy makers, officials of the competent authorities for medicines, phage researchers and phage producers, and members of the pharmaceutical industry. This brief also points out potential avenues for future phage therapy research and development as it specifically addresses those overarching questions that currently call for attention whenever phages go into purification processes for application. PMID:29621199

Identification, prevention and management of cardiovascular risk in chronic myeloid leukaemia patients candidate to ponatinib: an expert opinion.

PubMed

Breccia, Massimo; Pregno, Patrizia; Spallarossa, Paolo; Arboscello, Eleonora; Ciceri, Fabio; Giorgi, Mauro; Grossi, Alberto; Mallardo, Mario; Nodari, Savina; Ottolini, Stefano; Sala, Carla; Tortorella, Giovanni; Rosti, Gianantonio; Pane, Fabrizio; Minotti, Giorgio; Baccarani, Michele

2017-04-01

Ponatinib (Iclusig, ARIAD Pharmaceuticals-Incyte Co.) is a third-generation structure-guided tyrosine kinase inhibitor that is approved for treatment of Philadelphia chromosome-positive leukaemias resistant or intolerant to other inhibitors. The clinical use of ponatinib is complicated by the possible development of cardiovascular events, primarily hypertension and arterial or venous thrombotic events. The US Food and Drug Administration and the European Medicine Agency recommend that the cardiovascular profile of patients candidate for ponatinib should be carefully evaluated. For patients deemed to carry a high risk of cardiovascular events, other life-saving therapeutic options should be considered. When alternative options are not available, treatment with ponatinib is indicated but requires that haematologists and cardiologists collaborate and identify modalities of surveillance and risk mitigation in the best interest of the patient. This article reports on the expert opinion provided by a panel of Italian haematologists, cardiologists and clinical pharmacologists. It summarises suggestions that may help to improve the therapeutic index of ponatinib, primarily in the settings of chronic-phase chronic myeloid leukaemia.

Comparative effectiveness research: what to do when experts disagree about risks.

PubMed

Lie, Reidar K; Chan, Francis K L; Grady, Christine; Ng, Vincent H; Wendler, David

2017-06-19

Ethical issues related to comparative effectiveness research, or research that compares existing standards of care, have recently received considerable attention. In this paper we focus on how Ethics Review Committees (ERCs) should evaluate the risks of comparative effectiveness research. We discuss what has been a prominent focus in the debate about comparative effectiveness research, namely that it is justified when "nothing is known" about the comparative effectiveness of the available alternatives. We argue that this focus may be misleading. Rather, we should focus on the fact that some experts believe that the evidence points in favor of one intervention, whereas other experts believe that the evidence favors the alternative(s). We will then introduce a case that illustrates this point, and based on that, discuss how ERCs should deal with such cases of expert disagreement. We argue that ERCs have a duty to assess the range of expert opinions and based on that assessment arrive at a risk judgment about the study under consideration. We also argue that assessment of expert disagreement is important for the assignment of risk level to a clinical trial: what is the basis for expert opinions, how strong is the evidence appealed to by various experts, and how can clinical trial monitoring affect the possible increased risk of clinical trial participation.

Expert Concept Mapping Study on Mobile Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Borner, Dirk; Glahn, Christian; Stoyanov, Slavi; Kalz, Marco; Specht, Marcus

2010-01-01

Purpose: The present paper introduces concept mapping as a structured participative conceptualization approach to identify clusters of ideas and opinions generated by experts within the domain of mobile learning. Utilizing this approach, the paper aims to contribute to a definition of key domain characteristics by identifying the main educational…

What defines an Expert? - Uncertainty in the interpretation of seismic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bond, C. E.

2008-12-01

Studies focusing on the elicitation of information from experts are concentrated primarily in economics and world markets, medical practice and expert witness testimonies. Expert elicitation theory has been applied in the natural sciences, most notably in the prediction of fluid flow in hydrological studies. In the geological sciences expert elicitation has been limited to theoretical analysis with studies focusing on the elicitation element, gaining expert opinion rather than necessarily understanding the basis behind the expert view. In these cases experts are defined in a traditional sense, based for example on: standing in the field, no. of years of experience, no. of peer reviewed publications, the experts position in a company hierarchy or academia. Here traditional indicators of expertise have been compared for significance on affective seismic interpretation. Polytomous regression analysis has been used to assess the relative significance of length and type of experience on the outcome of a seismic interpretation exercise. Following the initial analysis the techniques used by participants to interpret the seismic image were added as additional variables to the analysis. Specific technical skills and techniques were found to be more important for the affective geological interpretation of seismic data than the traditional indicators of expertise. The results of a seismic interpretation exercise, the techniques used to interpret the seismic and the participant's prior experience have been combined and analysed to answer the question - who is and what defines an expert?

Comparing Powerpoint Experts' and University Students' Opinions about Powerpoint Presentations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mackiewicz, Jo

2008-01-01

Technical communication instructors want to help students, as well as professionals, design effective PowerPoint presentations. Toward this end, I compare the advice of academic and industry experts about effective PowerPoint presentation design to survey responses from university students about slide text, visual elements, animations, and other…

Evaluation of food provision and nutrition support at the London 2012 Olympic Games: the opinion of sports nutrition experts.

PubMed

Pelly, Fiona; Meyer, Nanna L; Pearce, Jeni; Burkhart, Sarah J; Burke, Louise M

2014-12-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the food provision and nutrition support at the London 2012 Olympic (OG) and Paralympic Games (PG) from the perspective of sports nutrition experts attending the event. Participants (n = 15) were asked to complete an online survey and rate on a Likert scale menu qualities, food safety, sustainability practices, nutrition labeling, and provision for cultural needs, dietary regimes and specific situations. Open-ended responses were incorporated to explore expert opinion and areas for improvement. Participants rated their overall experience of the food provision as 7.6 out of 10 (range 5 to 10), with the majority (n = 11) rating it greater than 7. The variety, accessibility, presentation, temperature, and freshness of menu items rated as average to good. A below average rating was received for recovery food and beverages, provision of food for traveling to other venues, taking suitable snacks out of the dining hall and provision of food at other venues. However, the variety and accessibility of choices for Ramadan, and provision of post-competition food were rated highly. A number of comments were received about the lack of gluten free and lower energy/fat items. The inclusion of allergens on nutrition labeling was considered more important than nutrient content. While dietetic review of the menu in advance of the OG and PG is clearly a valuable process that has resulted in improvements in the food supply, there are still areas that need to be addressed that are currently not implemented during the event.

The Viewpoints of Students and Evaluation Experts About Performance Processes of Faculty Member Evaluation at Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, 2014.

PubMed

Ghahrani, Nassim; Balaghafari, Azita; Aligolbandi, Kobra; Vahedi, Mohammad; Siamian, Hasan

2015-06-01

One of the most common ways used in most of the countries and Iran to determine the status of teacher training is the evaluation by students. The most common method of evaluation is the survey questionnaire, the content of a number of questions about educational activities provided to the students. The researchers plan to evaluate the students' and experts' performances at Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences on the process of evaluating the performance of teachers, they examined in 2014. This study surveys the students and experts in the evaluation of faculty members' performance process. The study subjects were 3904 students and 37 evaluation expert of Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences. Using Cochran sampling formula of 350 students through proportional stratified random sampling were selected. The experts' viewpoint, method was used. Data collection tools consisted of 14 questions with answers Yes, or, I don't know. Descriptive Statistical analysis of the data and chi-square test was performed. From total of 350 students, 346 and the entire 37 evaluations expert participated in this study. Most of the students, 80 (23.12%) and the largest number of experts, 8 (21.62%) were from Sari Allied Medical Sciences Faculty. Most of the demographic information about gender were, 255 female students (74.56%) and 29 female experts (78.37%). In most age groups of students, 188 (55.62 percent) were in the category of 18 to 20 years, and the experts, 19 (51.35%) were in the category of 22 and 31 years. Most students, 232 of them (70.95%) were in semester 2 and 4. Most experts, 20 (54.05 percent) were under 10 years of work experience. The comparison between the views of students and experts in the evaluation process between the schools of Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari School of Nursing and Midwifery, there was difference between the opinions of experts and students (p-value=0.01. It showed 86.7% student and 33.3% of experts is satisfied with the

Mental illness and legal fitness (competence) to stand trial in New York State: expert opinion and criminal defendants' psychiatric symptoms.

PubMed

Lee, Eugene; Rosner, Richard; Harmon, Ronnie

2014-07-01

Fitness to Stand Trial is a critical concept in the adjudication of justice-involved persons. A retrospective study was conducted to examine criminal defendants' specific psychiatric symptoms and those symptoms' associations with expert opinions on Competence to Stand Trial. One hundred charts were reviewed: 50 Cases (opined as Not Fit) were compared against 50 Controls (opined as Fit) with respect to ratings on the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS). A significance level of 0.001 was selected a priori. Statistically significant differences were found in seven of the eighteen BPRS symptom constructs (with the highest differences in Conceptual Disorganization and Unusual Thought Content) and two of the four BPRS higher-order syndrome factors (Thinking Disorder and Hostile-Suspiciousness). Consistent with previous reports, psychotic symptoms are found in this study to be inversely associated with Fitness. Validity, reliability, and limitations of this study, as well as directions for future research, are discussed herein. © 2014 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Survey of Opinions on the Primacy of "g" and Social Consequences of Ability Testing: A Comparison of Expert and Non-Expert Views

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reeve, Charlie L.; Charles, Jennifer E.

2008-01-01

The current study examines the views of experts in the science of mental abilities about the primacy and uniqueness of "g" and the social implications of ability testing, and compares their responses to the views of a group of non-expert psychologists. Results indicate expert consensus that "g" is an important, non-trivial determinant (or at least…

Adaptation and validation of the REGEN expert system for the Central Appalachians

Treesearch

Lance A. Vickers; Thomas R. Fox; David L. Loftis; David A. Boucugnani

2011-01-01

REGEN is an expert system that predicts future species composition at the onset of stem exclusion using preharvest stand conditions. To extend coverage into hardwood stands of the Central Appalachians, we developed REGEN knowledge bases for four site qualities (xeric, subxeric, submesic, mesic) based on relevant literature and expert opinion. Data were collected from...

[Giving medico-legal opinions in cases with suspicion of medical mistake.part 1. between medicine and justice.

PubMed

Chowaniec, Czesław; Chowaniec, Małgorzata; Wilk, Mateusz

2017-01-01

Creating medico-legal opinion is a sophisticated investigative, analytical, decision-making and creative process. Forensic medicine specialist in cooperation with clinical medicine consultants, on the basis of evidence analysis, which was gathered during procedures and contained in the acts has to create an objective and essential opinion. This opinion is a vital, very important and irreplaceable proof in every case. Judicial body consults with forensic medicine specialist or specialists if there are circumstances for settlement of which there is a need of classified informations - art. 193 of Penalty Code. Forensic medicine specialists face many difficulties which may have effect on quality, positiveness of opinion, compliance with the deadline, increasing expectancy of judicial body or sides. It is very difficult to find clinical specialists which except their clinical knowledge have basic knowledge about law, the role and duties of an court expert. In this article we discuss creating-opinion problems, role and position of court expert in confrontation with expectations of judicial body and the Justice with particular emphasis on medical mistakes and assessment of medical proceedings. We show the complexity of creating of medical opinions, especially these institutional.

Assessing the impact of climate change on vector-borne viruses in the EU through the elicitation of expert opinion.

PubMed

Gale, P; Brouwer, A; Ramnial, V; Kelly, L; Kosmider, R; Fooks, A R; Snary, E L

2010-02-01

Expert opinion was elicited to undertake a qualitative risk assessment to estimate the current and future risks to the European Union (EU) from five vector-borne viruses listed by the World Organization for Animal Health. It was predicted that climate change will increase the risk of incursions of African horse sickness virus (AHSV), Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) and Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) into the EU from other parts of the world, with African swine fever virus (ASFV) and West Nile virus (WNV) being less affected. Currently the predicted risks of incursion were lowest for RVFV and highest for ASFV. Risks of incursion were considered for six routes of entry (namely vectors, livestock, meat products, wildlife, pets and people). Climate change was predicted to increase the risk of incursion from entry of vectors for all five viruses to some degree, the strongest effects being predicted for AHSV, CCHFV and WNV. This work will facilitate identification of appropriate risk management options in relation to adaptations to climate change.

Value-Added Models: What the Experts Say

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Amrein-Beardsley, Audrey; Pivovarova, Margarita; Geiger, Tray J.

2016-01-01

Being an expert involves explaining how things are supposed to work, and, perhaps more important, why things might not work as supposed. In this study, researchers surveyed scholars with expertise in value-added models (VAMs) to solicit their opinions about the uses and potential of VAMs for teacher-level accountability purposes (for example, in…

Expert scientific judgment and cancer risk assessment: a pilot study of pharmacokinetic data.

PubMed

Hawkins, N C; Graham, J D

1988-12-01

When high-dose tumor data are extrapolated to low doses, it is typically assumed that the dose of a carcinogen delivered to target cells is proportional to the dose administered to test animals, even at exposure levels below the experimental range. Since pharmacokinetic data are becoming available that in some cases question the validity of this assumption, risk assessors must decide whether to maintain the standard assumption. A pilot study of formaldehyde is reported that was undertaken to demonstrate how expert scientific judgment can help guide a controversial risk assessment where pharmacokinetic data are considered inconclusive. Eight experts on pharmacokinetic data were selected by a formal procedure, and each was interviewed personally using a structured interview protocol. The results suggest that expert scientific opinion is polarized in this case, a situation that risk assessors can respond to with a range of risk characterizations considered biologically plausible by the experts. Convergence of expert opinion is likely in this case of several specific research strategies ar executed in a competent fashion. Elicitation of expert scientific judgment is a promising vehicle for evaluating the quality of pharmacokinetic data, expressing uncertainty in risk assessment, and fashioning a research agenda that offers possible forging of scientific consensus.

Use of glucocorticoids in rheumatoid arthritis - pratical modalities of glucocorticoid therapy: recommendations for clinical practice based on data from the literature and expert opinion.

PubMed

Dernis, Emmanuelle; Ruyssen-Witrand, Adeline; Mouterde, Gaël; Maillefert, Jean-Francis; Tebib, Jacques; Cantagrel, Alain; Claudepierre, Pascal; Fautrel, Bruno; Gaudin, Philippe; Pham, Thao; Schaeverbeke, Thierry; Wendling, Daniel; Saraux, Alain; Loët, Xavier Le

2010-10-01

To develop recommendations about the use of glucocorticoids in patients with established rheumatoid arthritis (RA) managed in everyday practice, using the evidence-based approach and expert opinion. A three-step procedure was used: a scientific committee used a Delphi procedure to select five questions, which formed the basis for developing the recommendations; a systematic literature review was conducted by searching the Medline and Embase databases and the abstracts of meetings held by the Société Française de Rhumatologie (SFR), American College of Rheumatology (ACR), and European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR); and recommendations were developed and validated by a panel of experts based on the data from the literature review and on their experience. For each recommendation, the level of evidence and extent of agreement among experts were determined. The five questions pertained to the use of glucocorticoids in RA patients: role for intravenous glucocorticoid bolus therapy, role for intraarticular injections, and practical modalities of glucocorticoid administration and discontinuation. From the literature search, 93 articles were selected based on their titles and abstracts. Of these, 50 were selected for the literature review. Eight recommendations about the use of glucocorticoid therapy in everyday practice in patients with established RA were validated by a vote among all participating experts: bolus glucocorticoid therapy should be reserved for highly selected situations; triamcinolone hexacetonide is the preferred glucocorticoid for intraarticular therapy, and the joint should be rested for about 24h after the injection; for oral glucocorticoid therapy, agents with a short half-life taken once daily should be preferred; and when discontinuing glucocorticoid therapy, the patient and usual physician should be informed of the risk of adrenal insufficiency. Copyright © 2010 Société française de rhumatologie. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights

[Recommendations for terminating child custody--reasons and grounds in 30 expert decisions].

PubMed

Klosinski, G; Karle, M

1996-11-01

In a retrospective analysis 30 expert opinions on the right of visitation, which recommend the exclusion of this right for the non-custodial parent, are evaluated. These cases represent 23% of the expert opinions concerning the right of visitation that have been given by the department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry of the University of Tübingen between 1991 and 1994. Focusing on the decisive argument for the expert to exclude the right of visitation, it became apparent that in 40% of the cases the will of the child was the determining factor, followed by sustained tension between the parents in 33% of the cases. Emotional neglect, (continuous) abuse and maltreatment (12%) as well as offences against the clause of good behaviour (Wohlverhaltensklausel) were of significant smaller influence on the decision. And although 61% of the children have been classified as psychological disturbed, only in 5% of the cases this diagnosis was of importance.

Key attributes of expert NRL referees.

PubMed

Morris, Gavin; O'Connor, Donna

2017-05-01

Experiential knowledge of elite National Rugby League (NRL) referees was investigated to determine the key attributes contributing to expert officiating performance. Fourteen current first-grade NRL referees were asked to identify the key attributes they believed contributed to their expert refereeing performance. The modified Delphi method involved a 3-round process of an initial semi-structured interview followed by 2 questionnaires to reach consensus of opinion. The data revealed 25 attributes that were rated as most important that underpin expert NRL refereeing performance. Results illustrate the significance of the cognitive category, with the top 6 ranked attributes all cognitive skills. Of these, the referees ranked decision-making accuracy as the most important attribute, followed by reading the game, communication, game understanding, game management and knowledge of the rules. Player rapport, positioning and teamwork were the top ranked game skill attributes underpinning performance excellence. Expert referees also highlighted a number of psychological attributes (e.g., concentration, composure and mental toughness) that were significant to performance. There were only 2 physiological attributes (fitness, aerobic endurance) that were identified as significant to elite officiating performance. In summary, expert consensus was attained which successfully provided a hierarchy of the most significant attributes of expert NRL refereeing performance.

A Child's Concept of Pain: An International Survey of Pediatric Pain Experts.

PubMed

Pate, Joshua W; Hush, Julia M; Hancock, Mark J; Moseley, G Lorimer; Butler, David S; Simons, Laura E; Pacey, Verity

2018-01-15

A child's 'concept of pain' refers to how they understand what pain actually is, what function pain serves, and what biological processes are thought to underpin it. We aimed to determine pediatric pain experts' opinions of: (1) the importance and usefulness of assessing a child's concept of pain in clinical and/or research settings; (2) the usefulness of the content of items within currently published adult-targeted resources for assessing a child's concept of pain; and (3) important domains of a child's concept of pain to assess. Forty-nine pediatric pain experts (response rate = 75.4%) completed an online survey. Descriptive statistics and frequency of responses were analyzed. Experts from all included disciplines reported that assessing a child's concept of pain is important and useful both clinically and in a research setting (>80% reported very or extremely useful for each item). Experts considered that the content of 13 items from currently published adult-targeted resources was useful, but the wording was too complex for children aged 8-12 years. Experts considered that all seven of the proposed domains of a child's concept of pain was important to assess. The findings can be used to inform the development of an assessment tool for a child's concept of pain.

On the "general acceptance" of eyewitness testimony research. A new survey of the experts.

PubMed

Kassin, S M; Tubb, V A; Hosch, H M; Memon, A

2001-05-01

In light of recent advances, this study updated a prior survey of eyewitness experts (S. M. Kassin, P. C. Ellsworth, & V. L. Smith, 1989). Sixty-four psychologists were asked about their courtroom experiences and opinions on 30 eyewitness phenomena. By an agreement rate of at least 80%, there was a strong consensus that the following phenomena are sufficiently reliable to present in court: the wording of questions, lineup instructions, confidence malleability, mug-shot-induced bias, postevent information, child witness suggestibility, attitudes and expectations, hypnotic suggestibility, alcoholic intoxication, the crossrace bias, weapon focus, the accuracy-confidence correlation, the forgetting curve, exposure time, presentation format, and unconscious transference. Results also indicate that these experts set high standards before agreeing to testify. Despite limitations, these results should help to shape expert testimony so that it more accurately represents opinions in the scientific community.

Contemporary management of paraesophaegeal hernias: establishing a European expert consensus.

PubMed

Bonrath, E M; Grantcharov, T P

2015-08-01

The surgical treatment of paraesophageal hernias remains a challenge due to the lack of consensus regarding principles of operative treatment. The objectives of this study were to achieve consensus on key topics through expert opinion using a Delphi methodology. A Delphi survey combined with a face-to-face meeting was conducted. A panel of European experts in foregut surgery from high-volume centres generated items in the first survey round. In subsequent rounds, the panel rated agreement with statements on a 5-point Likert-type scale. Internal consistency (consensus) was predefined as Cronbach's α > .80. Items that >70 % of the panel either rated as irrelevant/unimportant, or relevant/important were selected as consensus items, while topics that did not reach this cut-off were termed "undecided/controversial". Three survey rounds were completed: 19 experts from 10 countries completed round one, 18 continued through rounds two and three. Internal consistency was high in rounds two and three (α > .90). Fifty-eight additional/revised items derived from comments and free-text entries were included in round three. In total, 118 items were rated; consensus agreement was achieved for 70 of these. Examples of consensus topics are the relevance of the disease profile for assessing surgical urgency and complexity, the role of clinical history as the mainstay of patient follow-up, indications for revision surgery, and training and credentialing recommendations. Topics with the most "undecided/controversial" items were follow-up, postoperative care and surgical technique. This Delphi study achieved expert consensus on key topics in the operative management of paraesophageal hernias, providing an overview of the current opinion among European foregut surgeons. Moreover, areas with substantial variability in opinions were identified reflecting the current lack of empirical evidence and opportunities for future research.

Expert Systems for Civilian Personnel Administration,

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-07-01

Test results of demonstration module vs. human classifier 2. Summary of data concerning Army experts 2 The findings, recommendations, and opinions...to the field of personnel administration. This report is the results of my investigation. . There are many who deserve thanks for assistance and...prompts the doctor for information about the patient, results of tests conducted on specimens from the patient, and observations made of r 3 "I the

A teledentistry system for the second opinion.

PubMed

Gambino, Orazio; Lima, Fausto; Pirrone, Roberto; Ardizzone, Edoardo; Campisi, Giuseppina; di Fede, Olga

2014-01-01

In this paper we present a Teledentistry system aimed to the Second Opinion task. It make use of a particular camera called intra-oral camera, also called dental camera, in order to perform the photo shooting and real-time video of the inner part of the mouth. The pictures acquired by the Operator with such a device are sent to the Oral Medicine Expert (OME) by means of a current File Transfer Protocol (FTP) service and the real-time video is channeled into a video streaming thanks to the VideoLan client/server (VLC) application. It is composed by a HTML5 web-pages generated by PHP and allows to perform the Second Opinion both when Operator and OME are logged and when one of them is offline.

Ask the experts how to treat individuals with spatial neglect: a survey study.

PubMed

Chen, Peii; Pitteri, Marco; Gillen, Glen; Ayyala, Harsha

2017-07-11

Spatial neglect (SN) impedes rehabilitation success and leaves long-term consequences. We asked experts to provide their opinions in addressing SN by scenario (ideal vs. reality) and by recovery phase (earliest, acute, subacute, and chronic). Experts were individuals who have assessed or treated patients with SN clinically. This study was conducted using an anonymous survey on the Internet with 189 responders over 3 months. Located in 23 different countries, 127 experts of seven disciplines were included (occupational therapy, physical therapy, nursing, speech and language pathology or therapy, neurology, physical medicine and rehabilitation, and psychology or neuropsychology). Comparing the two scenarios, more treatments were selected in the ideal than in the reality scenario for all recovery phases except for the chronic phase. In both scenarios, (1) more treatments were selected in acute and subacute phases than in earliest or chronic phases, (2) less experienced experts selected diverse treatment options more often, and (3) highly experienced experts were more likely to provide their reasons of treatment selection, suggestions of treatment delivery methods, and other insights. Finally, 83.7% reported obstacles in treating SN. Experts' treatment selections are consistent with current evidence and practice guidelines. Recognizing the limitation of evidence, their opinions may help generate ideas in various topics (e.g., dosing, integrative intervention, and treatment implementation) to be examined in future studies. Implications for Rehabilitation Clinicians with experience in treating people with spatial neglect (i.e., experts as defined in the present study) recognized the limitation of evidence but nonetheless suggested specific treatments by recovery phase. In both the reality and ideal scenarios, experts included visual scanning, active limb activation, and sustained attention training in the top-five selections. Prism adaptation was in the top

Expert consensus of general surgery residents' proficiency with common endocrine operations.

PubMed

Phitayakorn, Roy; Kelz, Rachel R; Petrusa, Emil; Sippel, Rebecca S; Sturgeon, Cord; Patel, Kepal N; Perrier, Nancy D

2017-01-01

Proficiency with common endocrine operations is expected of graduating, general surgery residents. However, no expert consensus guidelines exist about these expectations. Members of the American Association of Endocrine Surgeons were surveyed about their opinions on resident proficiency with common endocrine operations. Overall response rate was 38%. A total of 92% of the respondents operate with residents. On average, they believed that the steps of a total thyroidectomy for benign disease and a well-localized parathyroidectomy could be performed by a postgraduate year 4 surgery resident. Specific steps that they thought might require more training included decisions to divide the strap muscles or leaving a drain. Approximately 66% of respondents thought that a postgraduate year 5 surgery resident could independently perform a total thyroidectomy for benign disease, but only 45% felt similarly for malignant thyroid disease; 79% thought that a postgraduate year 5 surgery resident could independently perform a parathyroidectomy. Respondents' years of experience correlated with their opinions about resident autonomy for total thyroidectomy (benign r = 0.38, P < .001; malignant r = 0.29, P = .001) but not parathyroidectomy. On multivariate analysis, sex and years of experience of the respondents were independently associated with opinions on autonomy but only for total thyroidectomy for benign disease (P = .001). Annual endocrine volume of the respondents did not correlate with beliefs in autonomy. There was general agreement among responding members of the AAES about resident proficiency and autonomy with common endocrine operations. As postgraduate year 5 residents may not be proficient in advanced endocrine operations, opportunities exist to improve training prior to the transition to independent practice for graduates that anticipate performing endocrine operations routinely. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development of a practical approach to expert elicitation for randomised controlled trials with missing health outcomes: Application to the IMPROVE trial.

PubMed

Mason, Alexina J; Gomes, Manuel; Grieve, Richard; Ulug, Pinar; Powell, Janet T; Carpenter, James

2017-08-01

The analyses of randomised controlled trials with missing data typically assume that, after conditioning on the observed data, the probability of missing data does not depend on the patient's outcome, and so the data are 'missing at random' . This assumption is usually implausible, for example, because patients in relatively poor health may be more likely to drop out. Methodological guidelines recommend that trials require sensitivity analysis, which is best informed by elicited expert opinion, to assess whether conclusions are robust to alternative assumptions about the missing data. A major barrier to implementing these methods in practice is the lack of relevant practical tools for eliciting expert opinion. We develop a new practical tool for eliciting expert opinion and demonstrate its use for randomised controlled trials with missing data. We develop and illustrate our approach for eliciting expert opinion with the IMPROVE trial (ISRCTN 48334791), an ongoing multi-centre randomised controlled trial which compares an emergency endovascular strategy versus open repair for patients with ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm. In the IMPROVE trial at 3 months post-randomisation, 21% of surviving patients did not complete health-related quality of life questionnaires (assessed by EQ-5D-3L). We address this problem by developing a web-based tool that provides a practical approach for eliciting expert opinion about quality of life differences between patients with missing versus complete data. We show how this expert opinion can define informative priors within a fully Bayesian framework to perform sensitivity analyses that allow the missing data to depend upon unobserved patient characteristics. A total of 26 experts, of 46 asked to participate, completed the elicitation exercise. The elicited quality of life scores were lower on average for the patients with missing versus complete data, but there was considerable uncertainty in these elicited values. The missing at

Development of a practical approach to expert elicitation for randomised controlled trials with missing health outcomes: Application to the IMPROVE trial

PubMed Central

Mason, Alexina J; Gomes, Manuel; Grieve, Richard; Ulug, Pinar; Powell, Janet T; Carpenter, James

2017-01-01

Background/aims: The analyses of randomised controlled trials with missing data typically assume that, after conditioning on the observed data, the probability of missing data does not depend on the patient’s outcome, and so the data are ‘missing at random’ . This assumption is usually implausible, for example, because patients in relatively poor health may be more likely to drop out. Methodological guidelines recommend that trials require sensitivity analysis, which is best informed by elicited expert opinion, to assess whether conclusions are robust to alternative assumptions about the missing data. A major barrier to implementing these methods in practice is the lack of relevant practical tools for eliciting expert opinion. We develop a new practical tool for eliciting expert opinion and demonstrate its use for randomised controlled trials with missing data. Methods: We develop and illustrate our approach for eliciting expert opinion with the IMPROVE trial (ISRCTN 48334791), an ongoing multi-centre randomised controlled trial which compares an emergency endovascular strategy versus open repair for patients with ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm. In the IMPROVE trial at 3 months post-randomisation, 21% of surviving patients did not complete health-related quality of life questionnaires (assessed by EQ-5D-3L). We address this problem by developing a web-based tool that provides a practical approach for eliciting expert opinion about quality of life differences between patients with missing versus complete data. We show how this expert opinion can define informative priors within a fully Bayesian framework to perform sensitivity analyses that allow the missing data to depend upon unobserved patient characteristics. Results: A total of 26 experts, of 46 asked to participate, completed the elicitation exercise. The elicited quality of life scores were lower on average for the patients with missing versus complete data, but there was considerable uncertainty in

A Comparison of Defense and Plaintiff Expert Witnesses in Orthopaedic Surgery Malpractice Litigation.

PubMed

Park, Howard Y; Zoller, Stephen D; Sheppard, William L; Hegde, Vishal; Smith, Ryan A; Borthwell, Rachel M; Clarkson, Samuel J; Hamad, Christopher D; Proal, Joshua D; Bernthal, Nicholas M

2018-06-06

According to the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons (AAOS) Standards of Professionalism, the responsible testimony of expert witnesses in orthopaedic surgery malpractice lawsuits is important to the public interest. However, these expert witnesses are recruited and compensated without established standards, and their testimony can potentially sway court opinion, with substantial consequences. The objective of this study was to characterize defense and plaintiff expert orthopaedic surgeon witnesses in orthopaedic surgery malpractice litigation. Utilizing the WestlawNext legal database, defense and plaintiff expert witnesses involved in orthopaedic surgery malpractice lawsuits from 2013 to 2017 were identified. Each witness's subspecialty, mean years of experience, involvement in academic or private practice, fellowship training, and scholarly impact, as measured by the Hirsch index (h-index), were determined through a query of professional profiles, the Scopus database, and a PubMed search. Statistical comparisons were made for each parameter among defense and plaintiff expert witnesses. Between 2013 and 2017, 306 expert medical witnesses for orthopaedic cases were identified; 174 (56.9%) testified on behalf of the plaintiff, and 132 (43.1%) testified on behalf of the defense. Orthopaedic surgeons who identified themselves as general orthopaedists comprised the largest share of expert witnesses on both the plaintiff (n = 61) and defense (n = 25) sides. The plaintiff witnesses averaged 36 years of experience versus 31 years for the defense witnesses (p < 0.001); 26% of the plaintiff witnesses held an academic position versus 43% of the defense witnesses (p = 0.013). Defense witnesses exhibited a higher proportion of fellowship training in comparison to plaintiff expert witnesses (80.5% versus 64.5%, respectively, p = 0.003). The h-index for the plaintiff group was 6.6 versus 9.1 for the defense group (p = 0.04). Two witnesses testified for both the plaintiff

Expert elicitation, uncertainty, and the value of information in controlling invasive species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Fred A.; Smith, Brian J.; Bonneau, Mathieu; Martin, Julien; Romagosa, Christina; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Waddle, J. Hardin; Reed, Robert; Eckles, Jennifer Kettevrlin; Vitt, Laurie J.

2017-01-01

We illustrate the utility of expert elicitation, explicit recognition of uncertainty, and the value of information for directing management and research efforts for invasive species, using tegu lizards (Salvator merianae) in southern Florida as a case study. We posited a post-birth pulse, matrix model in which four age classes of tegus are recognized: hatchlings, 1 year-old, 2 year-olds, and 3 + year-olds. This matrix model was parameterized using a 3-point process to elicit estimates of tegu demographic rates in southern Florida from 10 herpetology experts. We fit statistical distributions for each parameter and for each expert, then drew and pooled a large number of replicate samples from these to form a distribution for each demographic parameter. Using these distributions, as well as the observed correlations among elicited values, we generated a large sample of matrix population models to infer how the tegu population would respond to control efforts. We used the concepts of Pareto efficiency and stochastic dominance to conclude that targeting older age classes at relatively high rates appears to have the best chance of minimizing tegu abundance and control costs. We conclude that expert opinion combined with an explicit consideration of uncertainty can be valuable in conducting an initial assessment of what control strategy, effort, and monetary resources are needed to reduce and eventually eliminate the invader. Scientists, in turn, can use the value of information to focus research in a way that not only increases the efficacy of control, but minimizes costs as well.

The Viewpoints of Students and Evaluation Experts About Performance Processes of Faculty Member Evaluation at Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, 2014

PubMed Central

Ghahrani, Nassim; Balaghafari, Azita; Aligolbandi, Kobra; Vahedi, Mohammad; Siamian, Hasan

2015-01-01

Background and purpose: One of the most common ways used in most of the countries and Iran to determine the status of teacher training is the evaluation by students. The most common method of evaluation is the survey questionnaire, the content of a number of questions about educational activities provided to the students. The researchers plan to evaluate the students’ and experts’ performances at Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences on the process of evaluating the performance of teachers, they examined in 2014. Materials and methods: This study surveys the students and experts in the evaluation of faculty members’ performance process. The study subjects were 3904 students and 37 evaluation expert of Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences. Using Cochran sampling formula of 350 students through proportional stratified random sampling were selected. The experts’ viewpoint, method was used. Data collection tools consisted of 14 questions with answers Yes, or, I don’t know. Descriptive Statistical analysis of the data and chi-square test was performed. Results: From total of 350 students, 346 and the entire 37 evaluations expert participated in this study. Most of the students, 80 (23.12%) and the largest number of experts, 8 (21.62%) were from Sari Allied Medical Sciences Faculty. Most of the demographic information about gender were, 255 female students (74.56%) and 29 female experts (78.37%). In most age groups of students, 188 (55.62 percent) were in the category of 18 to 20 years, and the experts, 19 (51.35%) were in the category of 22 and 31 years. Most students, 232 of them (70.95%) were in semester 2 and 4. Most experts, 20 (54.05 percent) were under 10 years of work experience. The comparison between the views of students and experts in the evaluation process between the schools of Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari School of Nursing and Midwifery, there was difference between the opinions of experts and students (p-value=0

Assessment of the severity of asthma by an expert system. Description and evaluation.

PubMed

Redier, H; Daures, J P; Michel, C; Proudhon, H; Vervloet, D; Charpin, D; Marsac, J; Dusser, D; Brambilla, C; Wallaert, B

1995-02-01

Asthmaexpert, an expert system (ES), was produced at the special request of several clinicians in order to better understand the medical decisions made clinical experts in managing an asthmatic patient. We describe and evaluate this knowledge base, focusing mainly on assessment of the severity of asthma. After compiling data from a patient, Asthmaexpert assesses the severity of the disease and identifies the trigger factors involved, suggests any further investigations that may be required, and offers a treatment strategy. Implemented with Nexpert and Hypercard, it runs on a MacIntosh personal computer. The validation stage involved eight clinical experts who provided 20 case report forms (CRF) with their conclusions about management of asthma. The CRF were then programmed into the ES, which provided its own conclusions about the same subjects. Afterward, all the experts evaluated the conclusions given by ES or by their colleagues in a double-blind manner. One hundred twenty-seven CRF were available. The reliability of the experts' opinions was good, with a substantial consensus between them when assessing severity scores (kappa = 0.27 to 0.54). There was no difference in concordance of opinions on severity scores either between the experts who designed the system and ES or between the other experts and ES (weighted kappa = 0.72 and 0.69, respectively). Experts judged that the severity scores given by ES were as good as those proposed by their colleagues, and that the overall conclusions given by ES were as good as or better than those given by their colleagues. The conclusions drawn by ES were given a good rating.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Expert views on societal responses to different applications of nanotechnology: a comparative analysis of experts in countries with different economic and regulatory environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, Nidhi; Fischer, Arnout R. H.; George, Saji; Frewer, Lynn J.

2013-08-01

The introduction of different applications of nanotechnology will be informed by expert views regarding which (types of) application will be most societally acceptable. Previous research in Northern Europe has indicated that experts believe that various factors will be influential, predominant among these being public perceptions of benefit, need and consumer concern about contact with nanomaterials. These factors are thought by experts to differentiate societal acceptance and rejection of nanotechnology applications. This research utilises a larger sample of experts ( N = 67) drawn from Northern America, Europe, Australasia, India and Singapore to examine differences in expert opinion regarding societal acceptance of different applications of nanotechnology within different technological environments, consumer cultures and regulatory regimes. Perceived risk and consumer concerns regarding contact with nano-particles are thought by all experts to drive rejection, and perceived benefits to influence acceptance, independent of country. Encapsulation and delivery of nutrients in food was thought to be the most likely to raise societal concerns, while targeted drug delivery was thought most likely to be accepted. Lack of differentiation between countries suggests that expert views regarding social acceptance may be homogenous, independent of local contextual factors.

Universal Health Coverage in Francophone Sub-Saharan Africa: Assessment of Global Health Experts' Confidence in Policy Options.

PubMed

Paul, Elisabeth; Fecher, Fabienne; Meloni, Remo; van Lerberghe, Wim

2018-05-29

Many countries rely on standard recipes for accelerating progress toward universal health coverage (UHC). With limited generalizable empirical evidence, expert confidence and consensus plays a major role in shaping country policy choices. This article presents an exploratory attempt conducted between April and September 2016 to measure confidence and consensus among a panel of global health experts in terms of the effectiveness and feasibility of a number of policy options commonly proposed for achieving UHC in low- and middle-income countries, such as fee exemptions for certain groups of people, ring-fenced domestic health budgets, and public-private partnerships. To ensure a relative homogeneity of contexts, we focused on French-speaking sub-Saharan Africa. We initially used the Delphi method to arrive at expert consensus, but since no consensus emerged after 2 rounds, we adjusted our approach to a statistical analysis of the results from our questionnaire by measuring the degree of consensus on each policy option through 100 (signifying total consensus) minus the size of the interquartile range of the individual scores. Seventeen global health experts from various backgrounds, but with at least 20 years' experience in the broad region, participated in the 2 rounds of the study. The results provide an initial "mapping" of the opinions of a group of experts and suggest interesting lessons. For the 18 policy options proposed, consensus emerged only on strengthening the supply of quality primary health care services (judged as being effective with a confidence score of 79 and consensus score of 90), and on fee exemptions for the poorest (judged as being fairly easy to implement with a confidence score of 66 and consensus score of 85). For none of the 18 common policy options was there consensus on both potential effectiveness and feasibility, with very diverging opinions concerning 5 policy options. The lack of confidence and consensus within the panel seems to

Identifying key conservation threats to Alpine birds through expert knowledge

PubMed Central

Pedrini, Paolo; Brambilla, Mattia; Rolando, Antonio; Girardello, Marco

2016-01-01

Alpine biodiversity is subject to a range of increasing threats, but the scarcity of data for many taxa means that it is difficult to assess the level and likely future impact of a given threat. Expert opinion can be a useful tool to address knowledge gaps in the absence of adequate data. Experts with experience in Alpine ecology were approached to rank threat levels for 69 Alpine bird species over the next 50 years for the whole European Alps in relation to ten categories: land abandonment, climate change, renewable energy, fire, forestry practices, grazing practices, hunting, leisure, mining and urbanization. There was a high degree of concordance in ranking of perceived threats among experts for most threat categories. The major overall perceived threats to Alpine birds identified through expert knowledge were land abandonment, urbanization, leisure and forestry, although other perceived threats were ranked highly for particular species groups (renewable energy and hunting for raptors, hunting for gamebirds). For groups of species defined according to their breeding habitat, open habitat species and treeline species were perceived as the most threatened. A spatial risk assessment tool based on summed scores for the whole community showed threat levels were highest for bird communities of the northern and western Alps. Development of the approaches given in this paper, including addressing biases in the selection of experts and adopting a more detailed ranking procedure, could prove useful in the future in identifying future threats, and in carrying out risk assessments based on levels of threat to the whole bird community. PMID:26966659

PACFISH/INFISH Biological Opinion (PIBO): Effectiveness Monitoring Program seven-year status report 1998 through 2004

Treesearch

Richard C. Henderson; Eric K. Archer; Boyd A Bouwes; Marc S. Coles-Ritchie; Jeffrey L. Kershner

2005-01-01

The PACFISH/INFISH Biological Opinion (PIBO) Effectiveness Monitoring Program was initiated in 1998 to provide a consistent framework for monitoring aquatic and riparian resources on most Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management lands within the Upper Columbia River Basin. This 7-year status report gives our funding sources, partners, and the public an overview of...

Updated clinical indications for transcatheter aortic valve implantation in patients with severe aortic stenosis: expert opinion of the Italian Society of Cardiology and GISE.

PubMed

Indolfi, Ciro; Bartorelli, Antonio L; Berti, Sergio; Golino, Paolo; Esposito, Giovanni; Musumeci, Giuseppe; Petronio, Sonia; Tamburino, Corrado; Tarantini, Giuseppe; Ussia, Gianpaolo; Vassanelli, Corrado; Spaccarotella, Carmen; Violini, Roberto; Mercuro, Giuseppe; Romeo, Francesco

2018-05-01

: The introduction of percutaneous treatment of severe aortic stenosis with transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) remains one of the greatest achievements of interventional cardiology. In fact, TAVI emerged as a better option than either medical therapy or balloon aortic valvuloplasty for patients who cannot undergo surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) or are at high surgical risk. Recently, increased operator experience and improved device systems have led to a worldwide trend toward the extension of TAVI to low-risk or intermediate-risk patients. In this expert opinion paper, we first discuss the basic pathophysiology of aortic stenosis in different settings then the key results of recent clinical investigations on TAVI in intermediate-risk aortic stenosis patients are summarized. Particular emphasis is placed on the results of the nordic aortic valve intervention, placement of aortic transcatheter valves (PARTNER) 2 and Surgical Replacement and Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation Randomized trials. The PARTNER 2 was the first large randomized trial that evaluated the outcome of TAVI in patients at intermediate risk. The PARTNER 2 data demonstrated that TAVI is a feasible and reasonable alternative to surgery in intermediate-risk patients (Society of Thoracic Surgeons 4-8%), especially if they are elderly or frail. There was a significant interaction between TAVI approach and mortality, with transfemoral TAVI showing superiority over SAVR. Moreover, we examine the complementary results of the recently concluded Surgical Replacement and Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation trial. This prospective randomized trial demonstrated that TAVI is comparable with surgery (primary end point 12.6% in the TAVI group vs. 14.0% in the SAVR group) in severe aortic stenosis patients deemed to be at intermediate risk. We review the most relevant clinical evidence deriving from nonrandomized studies and meta-analyses. Altogether, clinical outcome available data

Glaucoma progression detection: agreement, sensitivity, and specificity of expert visual field evaluation, event analysis, and trend analysis.

PubMed

Antón, Alfonso; Pazos, Marta; Martín, Belén; Navero, José Manuel; Ayala, Miriam Eleonora; Castany, Marta; Martínez, Patricia; Bardavío, Javier

2013-01-01

To assess sensitivity, specificity, and agreement among automated event analysis, automated trend analysis, and expert evaluation to detect glaucoma progression. This was a prospective study that included 37 eyes with a follow-up of 36 months. All had glaucomatous disks and fields and performed reliable visual fields every 6 months. Each series of fields was assessed with 3 different methods: subjective assessment by 2 independent teams of glaucoma experts, glaucoma/guided progression analysis (GPA) event analysis, and GPA (visual field index-based) trend analysis. Kappa agreement coefficient between methods and sensitivity and specificity for each method using expert opinion as gold standard were calculated. The incidence of glaucoma progression was 16% to 18% in 3 years but only 3 cases showed progression with all 3 methods. Kappa agreement coefficient was high (k=0.82) between subjective expert assessment and GPA event analysis, and only moderate between these two and GPA trend analysis (k=0.57). Sensitivity and specificity for GPA event and GPA trend analysis were 71% and 96%, and 57% and 93%, respectively. The 3 methods detected similar numbers of progressing cases. The GPA event analysis and expert subjective assessment showed high agreement between them and moderate agreement with GPA trend analysis. In a period of 3 years, both methods of GPA analysis offered high specificity, event analysis showed 83% sensitivity, and trend analysis had a 66% sensitivity.

Complex fuzzy soft expert sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selvachandran, Ganeshsree; Hafeed, Nisren A.; Salleh, Abdul Razak

2017-04-01

Complex fuzzy sets and its accompanying theory although at its infancy, has proven to be superior to classical type-1 fuzzy sets, due its ability in representing time-periodic problem parameters and capturing the seasonality of the fuzziness that exists in the elements of a set. These are important characteristics that are pervasive in most real world problems. However, there are two major problems that are inherent in complex fuzzy sets: it lacks a sufficient parameterization tool and it does not have a mechanism to validate the values assigned to the membership functions of the elements in a set. To overcome these problems, we propose the notion of complex fuzzy soft expert sets which is a hybrid model of complex fuzzy sets and soft expert sets. This model incorporates the advantages of complex fuzzy sets and soft sets, besides having the added advantage of allowing the users to know the opinion of all the experts in a single model without the need for any additional cumbersome operations. As such, this model effectively improves the accuracy of representation of problem parameters that are periodic in nature, besides having a higher level of computational efficiency compared to similar models in literature.

Functioning and disability in autism spectrum disorder: A worldwide survey of experts

PubMed Central

de Schipper, Elles; Mahdi, Soheil; de Vries, Petrus; Granlund, Mats; Holtmann, Martin; Karande, Sunil; Almodayfer, Omar; Shulman, Cory; Tonge, Bruce; Wong, Virginia V.C.N.; Zwaigenbaum, Lonnie

2016-01-01

Objective: This study is the second of four to prepare International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF; and Children and Youth version, ICF(‐CY)) Core Sets for Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD).The objective of this study was to survey the opinions and experiences of international experts on functioning and disability in ASD. Methods: Using a protocol stipulated by the World Health Organization (WHO) and monitored by the ICF Research Branch, an email‐based questionnaire was circulated worldwide among ASD experts, and meaningful functional ability and disability concepts were extracted from their responses. These concepts were then linked to the ICF(‐CY) by two independent researchers using a standardized linking procedure. Results: N = 225 experts from 10 different disciplines and all six WHO‐regions completed the survey. Meaningful concepts from the responses were linked to 210 ICF(‐CY) categories. Of these, 103 categories were considered most relevant to ASD (i.e., identified by at least 5% of the experts), of which 37 were related to Activities and Participation, 35 to Body functions, 22 to Environmental factors, and 9 to Body structures. A variety of personal characteristics and ASD‐related functioning skills were provided by experts, including honesty, loyalty, attention to detail and creative talents. Reported gender differences in ASD comprised more externalizing behaviors among males and more internalizing behaviors in females. Conclusion: The ICF(‐CY) categories derived from international expert opinions indicate that the impact of ASD on functioning extends far beyond core symptom domains. Autism Res 2016, 9: 959–969. © 2016 The Authors Autism Research published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Society for Autism Research PMID:26749373

Explaining opinion polarisation with opinion copulas.

PubMed

Askitas, Nikolaos

2017-01-01

An empirically founded and widely established driving force in opinion dynamics is homophily i.e. the tendency of "birds of a feather" to "flock together". The closer our opinions are the more likely it is that we will interact and converge. Models using these assumptions are called bounded confidence models (BCM) as they assume a tolerance threshold after which interaction is unlikely. They are known to produce one or more clusters, depending on the size of the bound, with more than one cluster being possible only in the deterministic case. Introducing noise, as is likely to happen in a stochastic world, causes BCM to produce consensus which leaves us with the open problem of explaining the emergence and sustainance of opinion clusters and polarisation. We investigate the role of heterogeneous priors in opinion formation, introduce the concept of opinion copulas, argue that it is well supported by findings in Social Psychology and use it to show that the stochastic BCM does indeed produce opinion clustering without the need for extra assumptions.

Explaining opinion polarisation with opinion copulas

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

An empirically founded and widely established driving force in opinion dynamics is homophily i.e. the tendency of “birds of a feather” to “flock together”. The closer our opinions are the more likely it is that we will interact and converge. Models using these assumptions are called bounded confidence models (BCM) as they assume a tolerance threshold after which interaction is unlikely. They are known to produce one or more clusters, depending on the size of the bound, with more than one cluster being possible only in the deterministic case. Introducing noise, as is likely to happen in a stochastic world, causes BCM to produce consensus which leaves us with the open problem of explaining the emergence and sustainance of opinion clusters and polarisation. We investigate the role of heterogeneous priors in opinion formation, introduce the concept of opinion copulas, argue that it is well supported by findings in Social Psychology and use it to show that the stochastic BCM does indeed produce opinion clustering without the need for extra assumptions. PMID:28829802

Balance, Sensorimotor, and Cognitive Performance in Long-Year Expert Senior Ballroom Dancers

PubMed Central

Kattenstroth, Jan-Christoph; Kalisch, Tobias; Kolankowska, Izabela; Dinse, Hubert R.

2011-01-01

Physical fitness is considered a major factor contributing to the maintenance of independent living and everyday competence. In line with this notion, it has been shown that several years of amateur dancing experience can exert beneficial effects not only on balance and posture but also on tactile, motor, and cognitive functions in older people. This raises the question of whether an even more extensive schedule of dancing, including competitive tournaments, would further enhance these positive effects. We therefore assessed posture, balance, and reaction times, as well as motor, tactile, and cognitive performance in older expert ballroom dancers with several years of competitive experience. We found substantially better performance in the expert group than in the controls in terms of expertise-related domains like posture, balance, and reaction times. However, there was no generalization of positive effects to those domains that were found to be improved in amateur dancers, such as tactile and cognitive performance, suggesting that there might be an optimal range of intervention intensity to maintain health and independence throughout the human lifespan. PMID:21961064

Estimating distribution and connectivity of recolonizing American marten in the northeastern United States using expert elicitation techniques

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aylward, C.M.; Murdoch, J.D.; Donovan, Therese M.; Kilpatrick, C.W.; Bernier, C.; Katz, J.

2018-01-01

The American marten Martes americana is a species of conservation concern in the northeastern United States due to widespread declines from over‐harvesting and habitat loss. Little information exists on current marten distribution and how landscape characteristics shape patterns of occupancy across the region, which could help develop effective recovery strategies. The rarity of marten and lack of historical distribution records are also problematic for region‐wide conservation planning. Expert opinion can provide a source of information for estimating species–landscape relationships and is especially useful when empirical data are sparse. We created a survey to elicit expert opinion and build a model that describes marten occupancy in the northeastern United States as a function of landscape conditions. We elicited opinions from 18 marten experts that included wildlife managers, trappers and researchers. Each expert estimated occupancy probability at 30 sites in their geographic region of expertise. We, then, fit the response data with a set of 58 models that incorporated the effects of covariates related to forest characteristics, climate, anthropogenic impacts and competition at two spatial scales (1.5 and 5 km radii), and used model selection techniques to determine the best model in the set. Three top models had strong empirical support, which we model averaged based on AIC weights. The final model included effects of five covariates at the 5‐km scale: percent canopy cover (positive), percent spruce‐fir land cover (positive), winter temperature (negative), elevation (positive) and road density (negative). A receiver operating characteristic curve indicated that the model performed well based on recent occurrence records. We mapped distribution across the region and used circuit theory to estimate movement corridors between isolated core populations. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of expert‐opinion data at modeling occupancy for rare

The weighted priors approach for combining expert opinions in logistic regression experiments

DOE PAGES

Quinlan, Kevin R.; Anderson-Cook, Christine M.; Myers, Kary L.

2017-04-24

When modeling the reliability of a system or component, it is not uncommon for more than one expert to provide very different prior estimates of the expected reliability as a function of an explanatory variable such as age or temperature. Our goal in this paper is to incorporate all information from the experts when choosing a design about which units to test. Bayesian design of experiments has been shown to be very successful for generalized linear models, including logistic regression models. We use this approach to develop methodology for the case where there are several potentially non-overlapping priors under consideration.more » While multiple priors have been used for analysis in the past, they have never been used in a design context. The Weighted Priors method performs well for a broad range of true underlying model parameter choices and is more robust when compared to other reasonable design choices. Finally, we illustrate the method through multiple scenarios and a motivating example. Additional figures for this article are available in the online supplementary information.« less

The weighted priors approach for combining expert opinions in logistic regression experiments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Quinlan, Kevin R.; Anderson-Cook, Christine M.; Myers, Kary L.

When modeling the reliability of a system or component, it is not uncommon for more than one expert to provide very different prior estimates of the expected reliability as a function of an explanatory variable such as age or temperature. Our goal in this paper is to incorporate all information from the experts when choosing a design about which units to test. Bayesian design of experiments has been shown to be very successful for generalized linear models, including logistic regression models. We use this approach to develop methodology for the case where there are several potentially non-overlapping priors under consideration.more » While multiple priors have been used for analysis in the past, they have never been used in a design context. The Weighted Priors method performs well for a broad range of true underlying model parameter choices and is more robust when compared to other reasonable design choices. Finally, we illustrate the method through multiple scenarios and a motivating example. Additional figures for this article are available in the online supplementary information.« less

Neuropsychologist experts and neurolaw: cases, controversies, and admissibility challenges.

PubMed

Kaufmann, Paul M

2013-01-01

Clinical neuropsychologists engage increasingly in forensic consulting activities because such expert opinions are generally relevant, reliable and helpful in resolving certain legal claims, especially those related to traumatic brain injury. Consequently, practitioners of law, medicine and psychology would benefit from understanding the nature of neuropsychological evidence, the standards for its admissibility, and its expanding role in neurolaw. This article reviews important evidentiary rules regulating relevance, preliminary questions, and expert testimony, while tracing federal key court decisions and progeny. Civil and criminal cases are detailed to illustrate the application of these rules and case law to neuropsychological evidence, with suggestions for overcoming motions to exclude such evidence. Expert neuropsychologists have a role in forensic consultation on brain trauma cases, even as the interdisciplinary dialog and understanding among law, medicine, and psychology continues to expand. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Is expert opinion enough? A critical assessment of the evidence for potential impacts of climate change on tick-borne diseases.

PubMed

Randolph, Sarah E

2013-12-01

Before attributing cause and consequence to climate change, the precise patterns of change must be known. Ground records across much of Europe show a 1-2 °C rise in temperatures in 1989 with no significant rise since then. The timing and spatial uniformity of this pattern, relative to changes in the distribution and incidence of many vector-borne diseases, are sufficient to falsify most simple claims that climate change is the principal cause of disease emergence. Furthermore, age-specific increases in incidence indicate causes other than, or in addition to, climate change. Unfortunately, many public health professionals repeat the received wisdom that climate change is worsening the burden of indirectly transmitted infections; this 'expert opinion' soon becomes consensus dogma divorced from quantitative evidence. The pressing need is to gather appropriate data to test the simple concept that the composition and relative importance of disparate multifactorial factors, commonly integrated within a causal nexus, will inevitably vary with the geographical, cultural, socio-economical, wildlife, etc. context. The greatest impact of warming occurs at the geographical limits of current distributions, where low temperatures limit the hazard of infected vectors. Within core endemic regions, changing exposure of humans to this hazard, through changing socio-economic factors is evidently more important amongst both the poor and the wealthy.

Treatment Guidelines for Preoperative Radiation Therapy for Retroperitoneal Sarcoma: Preliminary Consensus of an International Expert Panel

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baldini, Elizabeth H., E-mail: ebaldini@partners.org; Wang, Dian; Haas, Rick L.M.

Purpose: Evidence for external beam radiation therapy (RT) as part of treatment for retroperitoneal sarcoma (RPS) is limited. Preoperative RT is the subject of a current randomized trial, but the results will not be available for many years. In the meantime, many practitioners use preoperative RT for RPS, and although this approach is used in practice, there are no radiation treatment guidelines. An international expert panel was convened to develop consensus treatment guidelines for preoperative RT for RPS. Methods and Materials: An expert panel of 15 academic radiation oncologists who specialize in the treatment of sarcoma was assembled. A systematicmore » review of reports related to RT for RPS, RT for extremity sarcoma, and RT-related toxicities for organs at risk was performed. Due to the paucity of high-quality published data on the subject of RT for RPS, consensus recommendations were based largely on expert opinion derived from clinical experience and extrapolation of relevant published reports. It is intended that these clinical practice guidelines be updated as pertinent data become available. Results: Treatment guidelines for preoperative RT for RPS are presented. Conclusions: An international panel of radiation oncologists who specialize in sarcoma reached consensus guidelines for preoperative RT for RPS. Many of the recommendations are based on expert opinion because of the absence of higher level evidence and, thus, are best regarded as preliminary. We emphasize that the role of preoperative RT for RPS has not been proven, and we await data from the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) study of preoperative radiotherapy plus surgery versus surgery alone for patients with RPS. Further data are also anticipated pertaining to normal tissue dose constraints, particularly for bowel tolerance. Nonetheless, as we await these data, the guidelines herein can be used to establish treatment uniformity to aid future assessments of

[Expert assessment of hearing loss within the scope of the social compensation law and the law regarding severely handicapped patients].

PubMed

Plath, P

1992-10-01

Special problems are described concerning expert opinions on hearing disability and hearing loss with regard to the German Social Rights for Compensation and the laws for handicapped persons. In some aspects there are similarities to the rights of accident insurance, but disability programs question only the degree of handicap present and not the source of the hearing loss. The expert opinion on the subject's ability to work in his or any other profession must only determine the patient's ability to hear and the tasks needed to fulfill the profession. Special attention is given to the problems arising from tinnitus.

Aflibercept treatment for neovascular AMD beyond the first year: consensus recommendations by a UK expert roundtable panel, 2017 update

PubMed Central

Patel, Praveen J; Devonport, Helen; Sivaprasad, Sobha; Ross, Adam H; Walters, Gavin; Gale, Richard P; Lotery, Andrew J; Mahmood, Sajjad; Talks, James S; Napier, Jackie

2017-01-01

National recommendations on continued administration of aflibercept solution for injection after the first year of treatment for neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) have been developed by an expert panel of UK retina specialists, based on clinician experience and treatment outcomes seen in year 2. The 2017 update reiterates that the treatment goal is to maintain or improve the macular structural and functional gains achieved in year 1 while attempting to reduce or minimize the treatment burden, recognizing the need for ongoing treatment. At the end of year 1 (ie, the decision visit at month 11), two treatment options should be considered: do not extend the treatment interval and maintain fixed 8-weekly dosing, or extend the treatment interval using a treat-and-extend regimen up to a maximum 12 weeks. Criteria for considering not extending the treatment interval are persistent macular fluid with stable vision, recurrent fluid, decrease in vision in the presence of fluid, macular hemorrhage, new choroidal neovascularization or any other sign(s) of exudative disease activity considered vision threatening in the opinion of the treating clinician. Treatment extension is recommended for eyes with a dry macula (ie, without macular fluid) and stable vision. Under both options, the treatment interval may be shortened if visual and/or anatomic outcomes deteriorate. Monitoring without treatment may be considered for eyes with a fluid-free macula for a minimum duration of 48 weeks. A patient completing one full year of monitoring without requiring injections may be considered for discharge from clinic. The treatment algorithm incorporates return to fixed 8-weekly dosing for disease reactivation during treatment extension and reinstatement of treatment for disease recurrence following discontinuation or discharge. For bilateral nAMD, either the eye requiring the more intensive treatment or the eye with the better vision, guided by local clinical practice, should

Aflibercept treatment for neovascular AMD beyond the first year: consensus recommendations by a UK expert roundtable panel, 2017 update.

PubMed

Patel, Praveen J; Devonport, Helen; Sivaprasad, Sobha; Ross, Adam H; Walters, Gavin; Gale, Richard P; Lotery, Andrew J; Mahmood, Sajjad; Talks, James S; Napier, Jackie

2017-01-01

National recommendations on continued administration of aflibercept solution for injection after the first year of treatment for neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) have been developed by an expert panel of UK retina specialists, based on clinician experience and treatment outcomes seen in year 2. The 2017 update reiterates that the treatment goal is to maintain or improve the macular structural and functional gains achieved in year 1 while attempting to reduce or minimize the treatment burden, recognizing the need for ongoing treatment. At the end of year 1 (ie, the decision visit at month 11), two treatment options should be considered: do not extend the treatment interval and maintain fixed 8-weekly dosing, or extend the treatment interval using a treat-and-extend regimen up to a maximum 12 weeks. Criteria for considering not extending the treatment interval are persistent macular fluid with stable vision, recurrent fluid, decrease in vision in the presence of fluid, macular hemorrhage, new choroidal neovascularization or any other sign(s) of exudative disease activity considered vision threatening in the opinion of the treating clinician. Treatment extension is recommended for eyes with a dry macula (ie, without macular fluid) and stable vision. Under both options, the treatment interval may be shortened if visual and/or anatomic outcomes deteriorate. Monitoring without treatment may be considered for eyes with a fluid-free macula for a minimum duration of 48 weeks. A patient completing one full year of monitoring without requiring injections may be considered for discharge from clinic. The treatment algorithm incorporates return to fixed 8-weekly dosing for disease reactivation during treatment extension and reinstatement of treatment for disease recurrence following discontinuation or discharge. For bilateral nAMD, either the eye requiring the more intensive treatment or the eye with the better vision, guided by local clinical practice, should

Experts' consensus on use of electronic cigarettes: a Delphi survey from Switzerland.

PubMed

Blaser, Jeremie; Cornuz, Jacques

2015-04-15

In some countries, nicotine-containing electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) are considered a consumer product without specific regulations. In others (eg, Switzerland), the sale of e-cigarettes containing nicotine is forbidden, despite the eagerness of many smokers to obtain them. As scientific data about efficacy and long-term safety of these products are scarce, tobacco control experts are divided on how to regulate them. In order to gain consensus among experts to provide recommendations to health authorities, we performed a national consensus study. We used a Delphi method with electronic questionnaires to bring together the opinion of Swiss experts on e-cigarettes. 40 Swiss experts from across the country. We measured the degree of consensus between experts on recommendations regarding regulation, sale, use of and general opinion about e-cigarettes containing nicotine. New recommendations and statements were added following the experts' answers and comments. There was consensus that e-cigarettes containing nicotine should be made available, but only under specific conditions. Sale should be restricted to adults, using quality standards, a maximum level of nicotine and with an accompanying list of authorised ingredients. Advertisement should be restricted and use in public places should be forbidden. These recommendations encompass three principles: (1) the reality principle, as the product is already on the market; (2) the prevention principle, as e-cigarettes provide an alternative to tobacco for actual smokers, and (3) the precautionary principle, to protect minors and non-smokers, since long-term effects are not yet known. Swiss authorities should design specific regulations to sell nicotine-containing e-cigarettes. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Structuring expert input for a knowledge-based approach to watershed condition assessment for the Northwest Forest Plan, USA

Treesearch

Sean N. Gordon; Gallo Kirsten

2011-01-01

Assessments of watershed condition for aquatic and riparian species often have to rely on expert opinion because of the complexity of establishing statistical relationships among the many factors involved. Such expert-based assessments can be difficult to document and apply consistently over time and space. We describe and reflect on the process of developing a...

'What on earth can this possibly mean'? French reentry courts and experts' risk assessment.

PubMed

Herzog-Evans, Martine

2016-01-01

Against the backdrop of ten years of punitive criminal justice policies, the number of cases in which risk assessments by psychiatrist experts are mandatory has considerably increased in France. Because of complex and deeply ingrained cultural factors, most experts and academics oppose the use of actuarial or other structured judgement tools, which they assimilate to these policy changes. Parallel to this, the reentry judges in charge of making release and other community sentence decisions have maintained a strong rehabilitative and desistance-focused culture. Drawing on interviews with these judges and experts, the author wanted to assess the judges' expectations of experts' reports, their opinion on actuarial tools, and how they perceived experts and their aptitude to assess risk. The study showed that French reentry judges manage to keep experts' conclusions at bay when they do not fit with their desistance goals, as they can draw upon their own expertise and that of probation services. They do not have much faith in the professionalism and methodology of experts, and would like them to better demonstrate how they reach their conclusions. Moreover, criminogenic needs assessment would be much more useful to them than static risk assessment, which raises the issue as to why this is not the French probation services' role. Reentry judges who never encountered a report which uses a structured tool are influenced by the French ideological debate; those who have read such reports are unanimously in favour of such tools. It thus seems clear that they would like experts to be more strongly guided by science, but are not yet fully aware of what this entails. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Public authority control strategy for opinion evolution in social networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xi; Xiong, Xi; Zhang, Minghong; Li, Wei

2016-08-01

This paper addresses the need to deal with and control public opinion and rumors. Existing strategies to control public opinion include degree, random, and adaptive bridge control strategies. In this paper, we use the HK model to present a public opinion control strategy based on public authority (PA). This means utilizing the influence of expert or high authority individuals whose opinions we control to obtain the optimum effect in the shortest time possible and thus reach a consensus of public opinion. Public authority (PA) is only influenced by individuals' attributes (age, economic status, and education level) and not their degree distribution; hence, in this paper, we assume that PA complies with two types of public authority distribution (normal and power-law). According to the proposed control strategy, our experiment is based on random, degree, and public authority control strategies in three different social networks (small-world, scale-free, and random) and we compare and analyze the strategies in terms of convergence time (T), final number of controlled agents (C), and comprehensive efficiency (E). We find that different network topologies and the distribution of the PA in the network can influence the final controlling effect. While the effect of PA strategy differs in different network topology structures, all structures achieve comprehensive efficiency with any kind of public authority distribution in any network. Our findings are consistent with several current sociological phenomena and show that in the process of public opinion/rumor control, considerable attention should be paid to high authority individuals.

Public authority control strategy for opinion evolution in social networks.

PubMed

Chen, Xi; Xiong, Xi; Zhang, Minghong; Li, Wei

2016-08-01

This paper addresses the need to deal with and control public opinion and rumors. Existing strategies to control public opinion include degree, random, and adaptive bridge control strategies. In this paper, we use the HK model to present a public opinion control strategy based on public authority (PA). This means utilizing the influence of expert or high authority individuals whose opinions we control to obtain the optimum effect in the shortest time possible and thus reach a consensus of public opinion. Public authority (PA) is only influenced by individuals' attributes (age, economic status, and education level) and not their degree distribution; hence, in this paper, we assume that PA complies with two types of public authority distribution (normal and power-law). According to the proposed control strategy, our experiment is based on random, degree, and public authority control strategies in three different social networks (small-world, scale-free, and random) and we compare and analyze the strategies in terms of convergence time (T), final number of controlled agents (C), and comprehensive efficiency (E). We find that different network topologies and the distribution of the PA in the network can influence the final controlling effect. While the effect of PA strategy differs in different network topology structures, all structures achieve comprehensive efficiency with any kind of public authority distribution in any network. Our findings are consistent with several current sociological phenomena and show that in the process of public opinion/rumor control, considerable attention should be paid to high authority individuals.

Opinion strength influences the spatial dynamics of opinion formation

PubMed Central

Baumgaertner, Bert O.; Tyson, Rebecca T.; Krone, Stephen M.

2016-01-01

Opinions are rarely binary; they can be held with different degrees of conviction, and this expanded attitude spectrum can affect the influence one opinion has on others. Our goal is to understand how different aspects of influence lead to recognizable spatio-temporal patterns of opinions and their strengths. To do this, we introduce a stochastic spatial agent-based model of opinion dynamics that includes a spectrum of opinion strengths and various possible rules for how the opinion strength of one individual affects the influence that this individual has on others. Through simulations, we find that even a small amount of amplification of opinion strength through interaction with like-minded neighbors can tip the scales in favor of polarization and deadlock. PMID:28529381

Field testing of the ICHD-3β and expert opinion criteria for chronic migraine.

PubMed

Jiang, Huahua; Deng, Yong; Zhang, Yixin; Jin, Jieli; Kong, Xueying; Zhu, Qiuwen; Wang, Kuiyun; Zhou, Jiying

2016-12-01

Chronic headache (CrH) occurs commonly in the population, and chronic migraine (CM) accounts for much of the CrH. Diagnostic criteria for CM remain controversial, and this could lead to undertreatment of CM. The purpose of this study was to analyze the clinical profiles of CM and to field test the International Classification of Headache Disorders-3β criteria (ICHD-3β) and Expert Opinion criteria (EO) for CM application. We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of CrH patients in our headache clinic during the period. Eligible patients were selected from CrH population based on Silberstein and Lipton criteria (S-L) for CM, and meanwhile fulfilled with migraine days at least 8 days/month. Then we evaluated the characteristics of clinic profiles and outcomes between patients diagnosed CM using ICHD-3β and EO criteria. Field tested the CM criteria Of ICHD-3β and EO. In a total of 710 CrH patients , 261 (36.8 %) were recruited with CM based on both S-L criteria and fulfilled at least 8 migraine days/month. Be understandable, all the 261 patients met the EO criteria, and only 185 (70.9 %) met ICHD-3β for CM. For the 76 patients who met EO but not ICHD-3β, 70 had atypical migraine attacks (probable migraine, PM), and another 6 had typical migraine attacks but less than a total history of 5 attacks. Although 173 (66.3 %) were concurrent with medication overuse, just one patient overused triptans and none used ergot agents. Clinical features were not significantly different between the ICHD-3β and EO criteria groups (P > 0.05), and neither were outcomes of prophylaxis (P = 0.966). Total migraine prophylaxis effectiveness was 73 %. Migraine-specific analgesics are rarely used in China, permitting patients with PM to avail themselves of "migraine days" is a reasonable accommodation for this difficult condition. In our hands, use of the new EO criteria for diagnosis of CM increases the sensitivity and maintains the specificity of decision making

OpinionFlow: Visual Analysis of Opinion Diffusion on Social Media.

PubMed

Wu, Yingcai; Liu, Shixia; Yan, Kai; Liu, Mengchen; Wu, Fangzhao

2014-12-01

It is important for many different applications such as government and business intelligence to analyze and explore the diffusion of public opinions on social media. However, the rapid propagation and great diversity of public opinions on social media pose great challenges to effective analysis of opinion diffusion. In this paper, we introduce a visual analysis system called OpinionFlow to empower analysts to detect opinion propagation patterns and glean insights. Inspired by the information diffusion model and the theory of selective exposure, we develop an opinion diffusion model to approximate opinion propagation among Twitter users. Accordingly, we design an opinion flow visualization that combines a Sankey graph with a tailored density map in one view to visually convey diffusion of opinions among many users. A stacked tree is used to allow analysts to select topics of interest at different levels. The stacked tree is synchronized with the opinion flow visualization to help users examine and compare diffusion patterns across topics. Experiments and case studies on Twitter data demonstrate the effectiveness and usability of OpinionFlow.

The Health Experts onLine at Portsmouth (HELP) system: One-year review of adult and Pediatric Asynchronous Telehealth Consultations.

PubMed

Lin, Andrew H; Cole, Jacob H; Chin, John C; Mahnke, Chirstopher Becket

2016-01-01

The Health Experts onLine at Portsmouth teleconsultation system is designed to connect health providers in the Navy Medicine East Region to specialists at Naval Medical Center Portsmouth. A review of the first year of the Health Experts onLine at Portsmouth system was performed. Data on each teleconsultation were extracted from the Health Experts onLine at Portsmouth system database and analyzed. From June 2014 to May 2015 there have been 585 teleconsultations. Providers stationed on 36 ships/submarines and at 28 remote military treatment facilities have utilized the Health Experts onLine at Portsmouth system. Over 280 specialists in 34 different specialties were consulted. The median time to first response from a specialist was 6 h and 8 min, with 75% of all consults being addressed within 24 h. Eighteen medevacs were recommended. Thirty-nine potential medevacs were prevented, and 100 potential civilian network deferrals were prevented, resulting in an estimated savings of over US$580,000. Based on the 1-year metrics, Health Experts onLine at Portsmouth has provided improved access and quality of care to service members and their families throughout the Navy Medicine East Region. It has helped avoid over US$580,000 in unnecessary cost burden. Further review at the 2-year time interval will demonstrate the continued growth and effectiveness of the Health Experts onLine at Portsmouth system.

Fourth-year medical student opinions and basic knowledge regarding the field of radiology.

PubMed

Prezzia, Charles; Vorona, Gregory; Greenspan, Robin

2013-03-01

This study evaluates the opinions and knowledge of fourth-year US medical students regarding radiology and analyzes the influence of a required or nonrequired radiology rotation as a reflection of the effectiveness of radiology medical student education. Our institutional review board granted exempt status. An invitation e-mail was sent to 137 US medical schools. Upon receiving approval a second email was sent containing our voluntary anonymous online survey hyperlink to forward to their fourth-year class. Survey topics included demographics, radiology educational experiences, attitudes toward the field, and basic radiology knowledge. Responses were collected between August 4 and September 26, 2011. A total of 444 fourth-year medical students from 37 medical schools participated: 89% planned to enter a nonradiology specialty, 10.8% were required to take a dedicated radiology rotation, 34.9% completed one, 77% planned to complete one by graduation, 88.4% thought radiology often changes patient care or is at least as important as physical exam, 91.4% underestimated the cancer risk of an abdomen and pelvis computed tomography by at least one order of magnitude, and 72.9% by at least two orders. Seventy-seven percent had never heard of the American College of Radiology (ACR) Appropriateness Criteria. Respondents underestimated the potential risks of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI); with 58.3% aware intravenous gadolinium can cause nephrogenic systemic fibrosis and 79.4% aware of potential injury from metallic projectiles. 40.4% indicated that non-radiologist clinicians in specific medical specialties interpret their respective imaging studies at least as accurately as corresponding subspecialty radiologists. Other results include student opinions regarding teleradiology, radiologist lifestyle, and compensation. Fourth-year medical students recognize the importance of radiology but are poorly informed regarding radiation safety, MRI safety, and ACR Appropriateness

A Child’s Concept of Pain: An International Survey of Pediatric Pain Experts

PubMed Central

Hush, Julia M.; Hancock, Mark J.; Moseley, G. Lorimer; Butler, David S.; Pacey, Verity

2018-01-01

A child’s ‘concept of pain’ refers to how they understand what pain actually is, what function pain serves, and what biological processes are thought to underpin it. We aimed to determine pediatric pain experts’ opinions of: (1) the importance and usefulness of assessing a child’s concept of pain in clinical and/or research settings; (2) the usefulness of the content of items within currently published adult-targeted resources for assessing a child’s concept of pain; and (3) important domains of a child’s concept of pain to assess. Forty-nine pediatric pain experts (response rate = 75.4%) completed an online survey. Descriptive statistics and frequency of responses were analyzed. Experts from all included disciplines reported that assessing a child’s concept of pain is important and useful both clinically and in a research setting (>80% reported very or extremely useful for each item). Experts considered that the content of 13 items from currently published adult-targeted resources was useful, but the wording was too complex for children aged 8–12 years. Experts considered that all seven of the proposed domains of a child’s concept of pain was important to assess. The findings can be used to inform the development of an assessment tool for a child’s concept of pain. PMID:29342976

Towards a Fuzzy Expert System on Toxicological Data Quality Assessment.

PubMed

Yang, Longzhi; Neagu, Daniel; Cronin, Mark T D; Hewitt, Mark; Enoch, Steven J; Madden, Judith C; Przybylak, Katarzyna

2013-01-01

Quality assessment (QA) requires high levels of domain-specific experience and knowledge. QA tasks for toxicological data are usually performed by human experts manually, although a number of quality evaluation schemes have been proposed in the literature. For instance, the most widely utilised Klimisch scheme1 defines four data quality categories in order to tag data instances with respect to their qualities; ToxRTool2 is an extension of the Klimisch approach aiming to increase the transparency and harmonisation of the approach. Note that the processes of QA in many other areas have been automatised by employing expert systems. Briefly, an expert system is a computer program that uses a knowledge base built upon human expertise, and an inference engine that mimics the reasoning processes of human experts to infer new statements from incoming data. In particular, expert systems have been extended to deal with the uncertainty of information by representing uncertain information (such as linguistic terms) as fuzzy sets under the framework of fuzzy set theory and performing inferences upon fuzzy sets according to fuzzy arithmetic. This paper presents an experimental fuzzy expert system for toxicological data QA which is developed on the basis of the Klimisch approach and the ToxRTool in an effort to illustrate the power of expert systems to toxicologists, and to examine if fuzzy expert systems are a viable solution for QA of toxicological data. Such direction still faces great difficulties due to the well-known common challenge of toxicological data QA that "five toxicologists may have six opinions". In the meantime, this challenge may offer an opportunity for expert systems because the construction and refinement of the knowledge base could be a converging process of different opinions which is of significant importance for regulatory policy making under the regulation of REACH, though a consensus may never be reached. Also, in order to facilitate the implementation

An expert system-based approach to prediction of year-to-year climatic variations in the North Atlantic region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodionov, S. N.; Martin, J. H.

1999-07-01

A novel approach to climate forecasting on an interannual time scale is described. The approach is based on concepts and techniques from artificial intelligence and expert systems. The suitability of this approach to climate diagnostics and forecasting problems and its advantages compared with conventional forecasting techniques are discussed. The article highlights some practical aspects of the development of climatic expert systems (CESs) and describes an implementation of such a system for the North Atlantic (CESNA). Particular attention is paid to the content of CESNA's knowledge base and those conditions that make climatic forecasts one to several years in advance possible. A detailed evaluation of the quality of the experimental real-time forecasts made by CESNA for the winters of 1995-1996, 1996-1997 and 1997-1998 are presented.

Modelling the public opinion transmission on social networks under opinion leaders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zuozhi; Li, Meng; Ji, Wanwan

2017-06-01

In this paper, based on Social Network Analysis (SNA), the social network model of opinion leaders influencing the public opinion transmission is explored. The hot event, A Female Driver Was Beaten Due To Lane Change, has characteristics of individual short-term and non-government intervention, which is used to data extraction, and formed of the network structure on opinion leaders influencing the public opinion transmission. And the evolution mechanism are analyzed in the three evolutionary situations. Opinion leaders influence micro-blogging public opinion on social network evolution model shows that this type of network public opinion transmission is largely constrained by opinion leaders, so the opinion leaders behavior supervising on the spread of this public opinion is pivotal, and which has a guiding significance.

THE GHOST IN THE MACHINE? THE VALUE OF EXPERT ADVICE IN THE PRODUCTION OF EVIDENCE-BASED GUIDANCE: A MIXED METHODS STUDY OF THE NICE INTERVENTIONAL PROCEDURES PROGRAMME.

PubMed

Oyebode, Oyinlola; Patrick, Hannah; Walker, Alexander; Campbell, Bruce; Powell, John

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to determine the aspects of expert advice that decision makers find most useful in the development of evidence-based guidance and to identify the characteristics of experts providing the most useful advice. First, semi-structured interviews were conducted with seventeen members of the Interventional Procedures Advisory Committee of the UK's National Institute of Health and Care Excellence. Interviews examined the usefulness of expert advice during guidance development. Transcripts were analyzed inductively to identify themes. Second, data were extracted from 211 experts' questionnaires for forty-one consecutive procedures. Usefulness of advice was scored using an index developed through the qualitative work. Associations between usefulness score and characteristics of the expert advisor were investigated using univariate and multivariate analyses. Expert opinion was seen as a valued complement to empirical evidence, providing context and tacit knowledge unavailable in published literature, but helpful for interpreting it. Interviewees also valued advice on the training and experience required to perform a procedure, on patient selection criteria and the place of a procedure within a clinical management pathway. Limitations of bias in expert opinion were widely acknowledged and skepticism expressed regarding the anecdotal nature of advice on safety or efficacy outcomes. Quantitative analysis demonstrated that the most useful advice was given by clinical experts with direct personal experience of the procedure, particularly research experience. Evidence-based guidance production is often characterized as a rational, pipeline process. This ignores the valuable role that expert opinion plays in guidance development, complementing and supporting the interpretation of empirical data.

The Health Experts onLine at Portsmouth (HELP) system: One-year review of adult and Pediatric Asynchronous Telehealth Consultations

PubMed Central

Lin, Andrew H; Cole, Jacob H; Chin, John C; Mahnke, Chirstopher Becket

2016-01-01

Introduction: The Health Experts onLine at Portsmouth teleconsultation system is designed to connect health providers in the Navy Medicine East Region to specialists at Naval Medical Center Portsmouth. Methods: A review of the first year of the Health Experts onLine at Portsmouth system was performed. Data on each teleconsultation were extracted from the Health Experts onLine at Portsmouth system database and analyzed. Results: From June 2014 to May 2015 there have been 585 teleconsultations. Providers stationed on 36 ships/submarines and at 28 remote military treatment facilities have utilized the Health Experts onLine at Portsmouth system. Over 280 specialists in 34 different specialties were consulted. The median time to first response from a specialist was 6 h and 8 min, with 75% of all consults being addressed within 24 h. Eighteen medevacs were recommended. Thirty-nine potential medevacs were prevented, and 100 potential civilian network deferrals were prevented, resulting in an estimated savings of over US$580,000. Discussion: Based on the 1-year metrics, Health Experts onLine at Portsmouth has provided improved access and quality of care to service members and their families throughout the Navy Medicine East Region. It has helped avoid over US$580,000 in unnecessary cost burden. Further review at the 2-year time interval will demonstrate the continued growth and effectiveness of the Health Experts onLine at Portsmouth system. PMID:26985390

Determining the opinions of the first-year nursing students about clinical practice and clinical educators.

PubMed

Kol, Emine; İnce, Serpil

2018-05-01

The clinical experience prepares nursing students to become competent and professional practitioners. The evaluation of the clinical learning environment is important to determine if the clinical experience and clinical instructor provide essential learning opportunities as well as a supportive environment. This study aimed to determine the opinions of first-year nursing students about their instructors and clinical practice in the clinical education setting. The sample of the study consists of 227 students from Akdeniz University Nursing Faculty enrolled in the 'Nursing Basics' course. The mean age of the students was 19.30 ± 0.83, and 74% of the students stated that they were satisfied with clinical practice. During clinical applications, 70.8% of the students were guided by one nurse and one educator while 20.4% and 8.8% were accompanied with only an educator and only a nurse, respectively. A review of the opinions of the students about their educators revealed that they held positive opinions about the educators in terms of adequate theoretical knowledge (74.1%), openness to dialogue (67.9%), encouraging students to do research (62.7%), giving support to students during clinical practice (61.6%), and appreciating the positive behaviours of students (61.7%). In conclusion, it was determined that, although the students regarded the educators as competent in terms of theoretical knowledge and skill and successful in motivating, orienting, and encouraging the students, they viewed inaccessibility of educators as the leading problem. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Expert Recommended Strategies for Classroom Management for Beginning Teachers Placed in Hard-to-Staff Schools in Urban School Districts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alexis, Chelly C.

2014-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to get the opinion of a panel of experts as to which classroom management strategies should be implemented in urban school district mentoring programs to help beginning teachers who are placed in hard-to-staff schools in Los Angeles County, California. Methodology: This Delphi study included 20 expert mentors…

A Survey of First-Year Biology Student Opinions Regarding Live Lectures and Recorded Lectures as Learning Tools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Simcock, D. C.; Chua, W. H.; Hekman, M.; Levin, M. T.; Brown, S.

2017-01-01

A cohort of first-year biology students was surveyed regarding their opinions and viewing habits for live and recorded lectures. Most respondents (87%) attended live lectures as a rule (attenders), with 66% attending more than two-thirds of the lectures. In contrast, only 52% accessed recordings and only 13% viewed more than two-thirds of the…

A DELPHI STUDY OF RISK FACTORS FOR ACHILLES TENDINOPATHY- OPINIONS OF WORLD TENDON EXPERTS

PubMed Central

Watson, Paul J.; Barry, Simon

2016-01-01

Background and Purpose Achilles tendinopathy can be a debilitating chronic condition for both active and inactive individuals. The identification of risk facors is important both in preventing but also treating tendinopathy, many factors have been proposed but there is a lack of primary epidemiological data. The purpose of this study was to develop a statement of expert consensus on risk factors for Achilles tendinopathy in active and sedentary patient populations to inform a primary epidemiological study. Study design Delphi study Methods and Measures An online Delphi study was completed inviting participation from world tendon experts. The consensus was developed using three rounds of the Delphi technique. The first round developed a complete list of potential risk factors, the second round refined this list but also separated the factors into two population groups – active/athletic and inactive/sedentary. The third round ranked this list in order of perceived importance. Results Forty-four experts were invited to participate, 16 participated in the first round (response rate 40%) and two dropped out in the second round (resulting in a response rate of 35%). A total of 27 intrinsic and eight extrinsic risk factors were identified during round one. During round two only 12 intrinsic and five extrinsic risk factors were identified as important in active/athletic tendinopathy while 14 intrinsic and three extrinsic factors were identified as important for inactive/sedentary tendinopathy. Conclusions Risk factors for Achilles tendinopathy were identified based on expert consensus, and these factors provide a basis for primary epidemiological studies. Plantarflexor strength was identified as the primary modifiable factor in the active/athletic group while systemic factors were identified as important in the inactive/sedentary group, many of the potential factors suggested for either group were non-modifiable. Non-modifiable factors include: previous tendinopathy

Ask the experts.

PubMed

Pecoul, Bernard; Pollastri, Michael; McKerrow, James; Bueno-Calderon, Jose Maria

2012-07-01

The Uniting to Combat Neglected Tropical Diseases partners, including the US, UK, UAE and other national governments, along with 13 pharmaceutical industry businesses, the World Bank, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, and other neglected tropical disease-endemic countries, announced that they are to join together to drive research and innovation for the treatment of neglected tropical diseases. The collaboration will see neglected tropical disease-endemic countries work alongside these organizations with the goal of fueling R&D of treatments for ten neglected tropical diseases in support of WHO's 2020 goals. Isaac Bruce, Commissioning Editor, spoke to four experts in the field from academia, not-for-profit organizations and the pharmaceutical industry, and asked their opinions on the partnerships announced and what the status of neglected tropical disease research will be at the end of this decade.

The role and choice criteria of antihistamines in allergy management - expert opinion.

PubMed

Kuna, Piotr; Jurkiewicz, Dariusz; Czarnecka-Operacz, Magdalena M; Pawliczak, Rafał; Woroń, Jarosław; Moniuszko, Marcin; Emeryk, Andrzej

2016-12-01

Allergic diseases are the most common chronic conditions lasting throughout the patient's life. They not only cause significant deterioration in the quality of life of patients but also lead to significant absenteeism and reduced productivity, resulting in very high costs for society. Effective and safe treatment of allergic diseases is therefore one of the main challenges for public health and should be carried out by all the specialists in family medicine, internists and paediatricians in collaboration with allergists, otorhinolaryngologists and dermatologists. Antihistamines are most commonly used in the treatment of allergies. Several dozen drugs are available on the pharmaceutical market, and their generic forms are advertised widely as very effective drugs for the treatment of allergic diseases. What is the truth? What are the data from clinical trials and observational studies? Are all drugs equally effective and safe for the patient? According to a panel of experts representing various fields of medicine, inappropriate treatment of allergies can be very risky for patients, and seemingly equally acting medications may differ greatly. Therefore, a panel of experts gathered the latest data from the entire scientific literature and analysed the latest standards and recommendations prepared by scientific societies. This paper provides a summary of these studies and highlights the importance for the patient of the proper choice of drug to treat his allergies.

The role of communication in breast cancer screening: a qualitative study with Australian experts.

PubMed

Parker, Lisa M; Rychetnik, Lucie; Carter, Stacy M

2015-10-19

One well-accepted strategy for optimising outcomes in mammographic breast cancer screening is to improve communication with women about screening. It is not always clear, however, what it is that communication should be expected to achieve, and why or how this is so. We investigated Australian experts' opinions on breast screening communication. Our research questions were: 1 What are the views of Australian experts about communicating with consumers on breast screening? 2 How do experts reason about this topic? We used a qualitative methodology, interviewing 33 breast screening experts across Australia with recognisable influence in the Australian mammographic breast cancer screening setting. We used purposive and theoretical sampling to identify experts from different professional roles (including clinicians, program managers, policy makers, advocates and researchers) with a range of opinions about communication in breast screening. Experts discussed the topic of communication with consumers by focusing on two main questions: how strongly to guide consumers' breast cancer screening choices, and what to communicate about overdiagnosis. Each expert adopted one of three approaches to consumer communication depending on their views about these topics. We labelled these approaches: Be screened; Be screened and here's why; Screening is available please consider whether it's right for you. There was a similar level of support for all three approaches. Experts' reasoning was grounded in how they conceived of and prioritised their underlying values including: delivering benefits, avoiding harms, delivering more benefits than harms, respecting autonomy and transparency. There is disagreement between experts regarding communication with breast screening consumers. Our study provides some insights into this persisting lack of consensus, highlighting the different meanings that experts give to values, and different ways that values are prioritised. We suggest that explicit

Identifying the Essential Elements of Effective Science Communication: What Do the Experts Say?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bray, Belinda; France, Bev; Gilbert, John K.

2012-01-01

Experts in science communication were asked to identify the essential elements of a science communication course for post-graduate students. A Delphi methodology provided a framework for a research design that accessed their opinions and allowed them to contribute to, reflect on and identify 10 essential elements. There was a high level of…

The necessity of repeated assessment of imaging studies contained in medical records in medico-legal opinions.

PubMed

Borowska-Solonynko, A

The paper presents two case reports of living victims, in which imaging studies of the chest conducted at a medical facility were an essential part of the medico-legal opinion. The first case was that of a young male hospitalized due to CT evidence of bilateral rib fractions, who claimed to have been assaulted by police officers. The other case was that of a six week old baby hospitalized due to chest X-ray evidence of right hand side rib fractions. The chest X-ray was performed due to one bruise found on the baby's forehead and two small bruises on the back, which gave rise to suspicions of child abuse. In both cases, expert witnesses in radiology definitively excluded the presence of any fractures. These cases indicate that a new assessment of imaging studies contained in medical records is needed. Expert opinions based solely on the description of imaging studies may result in grave consequences.

Expert Elicitation Methods in Quantifying the Consequences of Acoustic Disturbance from Offshore Renewable Energy Developments.

PubMed

Donovan, Carl; Harwood, John; King, Stephanie; Booth, Cormac; Caneco, Bruno; Walker, Cameron

2016-01-01

There are many developments for offshore renewable energy around the United Kingdom whose installation typically produces large amounts of far-reaching noise, potentially disturbing many marine mammals. The potential to affect the favorable conservation status of many species means extensive environmental impact assessment requirements for the licensing of such installation activities. Quantification of such complex risk problems is difficult and much of the key information is not readily available. Expert elicitation methods can be employed in such pressing cases. We describe the methodology used in an expert elicitation study conducted in the United Kingdom for combining expert opinions based on statistical distributions and copula-like methods.

How to Read a U.S. Supreme Court Opinion

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Middleton, Tiffany

2013-01-01

Reading U.S. Supreme Court opinions can be intimidating. Yet, in the digital age, it has never been easier to access them. The average opinion is about 4,750 words, and is one of approximately 75 issued by the Court each year. It might be reassuring to know that opinions contain similar parts and tend to follow a similar format. There are also…

Expert Witness: A system for developing expert medical testimony

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewandowski, Raymond; Perkins, David; Leasure, David

1994-01-01

Expert Witness in an expert system designed to assist attorneys and medical experts in determining the merit of medical malpractice claims in the area of obstetrics. It substitutes the time of the medical expert with the time of a paralegal assistant guided by the expert system during the initial investigation of the medical records and patient interviews. The product of the system is a narrative transcript containing important data, immediate conclusions from the data, and overall conclusions of the case that the attorney and medical expert use to make decisions about whether and how to proceed with the case. The transcript may also contain directives for gathering additional information needed for the case. The system is a modified heuristic classifier and is implemented using over 600 CLIPS rules together with a C-based user interface. The data abstraction and solution refinement are implemented directly using forward chaining production and matching. The use of CLIPS and C is essential to delivering a system that runs on a generic PC platform. The direct implementation in CLIPS together with locality of inference ensures that the system will scale gracefully. Two years of use has revealed no errors in the reasoning.

[The role of the physician in expert testimony leading to an arrest].

PubMed

Marek, Z; Baran, E

1989-01-01

The authors have offered several problems related to a topic of medical professional activities of physicians being in contact with the administration of justice. There are presented opinions based on existent regulations and experiences associated with juridical expert activities of the authors. These opinions are about two problems that, according to obtained data, are made of controversies which stand between first-aid or ambulance doctors and law officers. The first problem deals with differences of opinion on obligations of physicians to examine drunk patients and to meet the requirements to put them into a sober room or--if there are any for a temporary stay into a prison. There has been also stated an opinion that this activity of physicians is included in a normal range of their professional duties. The second matter is concerned with the correctness of physicians' proceedings dealing with individuals arrested by militia and giving medical evidences that faces a problem whether stay in prison can or cannot constitute a threat for their life or health. It's been also founded that--in those cases--a physician has to be called a medicolegal opinion. The professional obligations of physicians still don't include this function and therefore it has to be granted separately.

[Medico-legal opinion in establishing "exposure to direct danger of death or grave detriment to health"].

PubMed

Jurek, Tomasz; Maksymowicz, Krzysztof

2005-01-01

This paper deals with the problem of competence of the forensic expert opinions on the exposure to "direct danger of death or grave detriment to health". According to the analysis of judicial verdicts and the comments of lawyers "direct danger" depends closely on the probability, time and number of occurrences between the behavior of the perpetrator and the threatening act. The competence of the forensic expert does not allow for the legal qualification of the act but for the assessment of from the medicolegal point of view, defining the threat and possible outcomes in a descriptive fashion. The assessment of "direct danger" should be the result of close cooperation between the judicial representative and forensic expert.

The use of subjective expert opinions in cost optimum design of aerospace structures. [probabilistic failure models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, J. M.; Hanagud, S.

1975-01-01

The results of two questionnaires sent to engineering experts are statistically analyzed and compared with objective data from Saturn V design and testing. Engineers were asked how likely it was for structural failure to occur at load increments above and below analysts' stress limit predictions. They were requested to estimate the relative probabilities of different failure causes, and of failure at each load increment given a specific cause. Three mathematical models are constructed based on the experts' assessment of causes. The experts' overall assessment of prediction strength fits the Saturn V data better than the models do, but a model test option (T-3) based on the overall assessment gives more design change likelihood to overstrength structures than does an older standard test option. T-3 compares unfavorably with the standard option in a cost optimum structural design problem. The report reflects a need for subjective data when objective data are unavailable.

Best practice strategies to safeguard drug prescribing and drug administration: an anthology of expert views and opinions.

PubMed

Seidling, Hanna M; Stützle, Marion; Hoppe-Tichy, Torsten; Allenet, Benoît; Bedouch, Pierrick; Bonnabry, Pascal; Coleman, Jamie J; Fernandez-Llimos, Fernando; Lovis, Christian; Rei, Maria Jose; Störzinger, Dominic; Taylor, Lenka A; Pontefract, Sarah K; van den Bemt, Patricia M L A; van der Sijs, Heleen; Haefeli, Walter E

2016-04-01

While evidence on implementation of medication safety strategies is increasing, reasons for selecting and relinquishing distinct strategies and details on implementation are typically not shared in published literature. We aimed to collect and structure expert information resulting from implementing medication safety strategies to provide advice for decision-makers. Medication safety experts with clinical expertise from thirteen hospitals throughout twelve European and North American countries shared their experience in workshop meetings, on-site-visits and remote structured interviews. We performed an expert-based, in-depth assessment of implementation of best-practice strategies to improve drug prescribing and drug administration. Workflow, variability and recommended medication safety strategies in drug prescribing and drug administration processes. According to the experts, institutions chose strategies that targeted process steps known to be particularly error-prone in the respective setting. Often, the selection was channeled by local constraints such as the e-health equipment and critically modulated by national context factors. In our study, the experts favored electronic prescribing with clinical decision support and medication reconciliation as most promising interventions. They agreed that self-assessment and introduction of medication safety boards were crucial to satisfy the setting-specific differences and foster successful implementation. While general evidence for implementation of strategies to improve medication safety exists, successful selection and adaptation of a distinct strategy requires a thorough knowledge of the institute-specific constraints and an ongoing monitoring and adjustment of the implemented measures.

Factors influencing societal response of nanotechnology: an expert stakeholder analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, Nidhi; Fischer, Arnout R. H.; van der Lans, Ivo A.; Frewer, Lynn J.

2012-05-01

Nanotechnology can be described as an emerging technology and, as has been the case with other emerging technologies such as genetic modification, different socio-psychological factors will potentially influence societal responses to its development and application. These factors will play an important role in how nanotechnology is developed and commercialised. This article aims to identify expert opinion on factors influencing societal response to applications of nanotechnology. Structured interviews with experts on nanotechnology from North West Europe were conducted using repertory grid methodology in conjunction with generalized Procrustes analysis to examine the psychological constructs underlying societal uptake of 15 key applications of nanotechnology drawn from different areas (e.g. medicine, agriculture and environment, chemical, food, military, sports, and cosmetics). Based on expert judgement, the main factors influencing societal response to different applications of nanotechnology will be the extent to which applications are perceived to be beneficial, useful, and necessary, and how 'real' and physically close to the end-user these applications are perceived to be by the public.

Expert assessment of the current state of the energy management system in the company

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minnullina, Anna; Abdrazakov, Rais

2017-10-01

The authors’ expert assessment of the current state of the energy management system in the company is proposed in the article. The experts are invited to assess the status of the energy management system in the following categories: energy policy, organizational structure, training, motivation, control, communication, investment, and energy consumption culture. For the purposes of interpretation of the results of the expert evaluation obtained, a gradation based on a possible range of values is proposed. The expert evaluation allows representing the status of the energy management system in general and at each of its individual levels, which makes it possible to identify the problem areas more accurately. To confirm the applied nature of the proposed methodology, the authors assessed the opinions of 8 experts, employed by the road construction company of the Tyumen Region and related in one way or another to the process of energy consumption in the company due to the nature of their activities.

[Prevention of infections in adults and adolescents with systemic lupus erythematosus: Guidelines for the clinical practice based on the literature and expert opinion].

PubMed

Mathian, A; Arnaud, L; Adoue, D; Agard, C; Bader-Meunier, B; Baudouin, V; Belizna, C; Bonnotte, B; Boumedine, F; Chaib, A; Chauchard, M; Chiche, L; Daugas, E; Ghali, A; Gobert, P; Gondran, G; Guettrot-Imbert, G; Hachulla, E; Hamidou, M; Haroche, J; Hervier, B; Hummel, A; Jourde-Chiche, N; Korganow, A-S; Kwon, T; Le Guern, V; Le Quellec, A; Limal, N; Magy-Bertrand, N; Marianetti-Guingel, P; Martin, T; Martin Silva, N; Meyer, O; Miyara, M; Morell-Dubois, S; Ninet, J; Pennaforte, J-L; Polomat, K; Pourrat, J; Queyrel, V; Raymond, I; Remy, P; Sacre, K; Sibilia, J; Viallard, J-F; Viau Brabant, A; Hanslik, T; Amoura, Z

2016-05-01

To develop French recommendations about the management of vaccinations, the screening of cervical cancer and the prevention of pneumocystis pneumonia in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Thirty-seven experts qualified in internal medicine, rheumatology, dermatology, nephrology and pediatrics have selected recommendations from a list of proposition based on available data from the literature. For each recommendation, the level of evidence and the level of agreement among the experts were specified. Inactivated vaccines do not cause significant harm in SLE patients. Experts recommend that lupus patient should receive vaccinations accordingly to the recommendations and the schedules for the general public. Pneumococcal vaccination is recommended for all SLE patients. Influenza vaccination is recommended for immunosuppressed SLE patients. Live attenuated vaccines should be avoided in immunosuppressed patients. Yet, recent works suggest that they can be considered in mildly immunosuppressed patients. Experts have recommended a cervical cytology every year for immunosuppressed patients. No consensus was obtained for the prevention of pneumocystis pneumonia. These recommendations can be expected to improve clinical practice uniformity and, in the longer term, to optimize the management of SLE patients. Copyright © 2016 Société nationale française de médecine interne (SNFMI). Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Experts' opinion about the pediatric secondary headaches diagnostic criteria of the ICHD-3 beta.

PubMed

Özge, Aynur; Abu-Arafeh, Ishaq; Gelfand, Amy A; Goadsby, Peter James; Cuvellier, Jean Christophe; Valeriani, Massimiliano; Sergeev, Alexey; Barlow, Karen; Uludüz, Derya; Yalın, Osman Özgür; Faedda, Noemi; Lipton, Richard B; Rapoport, Alan; Guidetti, Vincenzo

2017-11-29

The 2013 International Classification of Headache Disorders-3 was published in a beta version to allow clinicians to confirm the validity of the criteria or suggest improvements based on field studies. The aim of this work was to review the Secondary Headache Disorders and Cranial Neuralgias and Other Headache Disorders sections of ICHD-3 beta data on children and adolescents (age 0-18 years) and to suggest changes, additions, and amendments. Several experts in childhood headache across the world applied different aspects of ICHD-3 beta in their normal clinical practice. Based on their personal experience and the available literature on pediatric headache, they made observations and proposed suggestions for the mentioned headache disorders on children and adolescents. Some headache disorders in children have specific features, which are different from adults that should be acknowledged and considered. Some features in children were found to be age-dependent: clinical characteristics, risks factors and etiologies have a strong bio psychosocial basis in children and adolescents making primary headache disorders in children distinct from those in adults. Several recommendations are presented in order to make ICHD-3 more appropriate for use in children.

a New Method for Fmeca Based on Fuzzy Theory and Expert System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byeon, Yoong-Tae; Kim, Dong-Jin; Kim, Jin-O.

2008-10-01

Failure Mode Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) is one of most widely used methods in modern engineering system to investigate potential failure modes and its severity upon the system. FMECA evaluates criticality and severity of each failure mode and visualize the risk level matrix putting those indices to column and row variable respectively. Generally, those indices are determined subjectively by experts and operators. However, this process has no choice but to include uncertainty. In this paper, a method for eliciting expert opinions considering its uncertainty is proposed to evaluate the criticality and severity. In addition, a fuzzy expert system is constructed in order to determine the crisp value of risk level for each failure mode. Finally, an illustrative example system is analyzed in the case study. The results are worth considering in deciding the proper policies for each component of the system.

Seeking a second medical opinion: composition, reasons and perceived outcomes in Israel.

PubMed

Shmueli, Liora; Davidovitch, Nadav; Pliskin, Joseph S; Balicer, Ran D; Hekselman, Igal; Greenfield, Geva

2017-12-08

Seeking a second-opinion (SO) is a common clinical practice that can optimize treatment and reduce unnecessary procedures and risks. We aim to characterize the composition of the population of SO seekers, their reasons for seeking a SO and choosing a specific physician, and their perceived outcomes following the SO. A cross-sectional national telephone survey, using a representative sample of the general Israeli population (n = 848, response rate = 62%). SO utilization was defined as seeking an additional clinical opinion from a specialist within the same specialty, for the same medical concern. We describe the characteristics of respondents who obtained SOs, their reasons for doing so and their perceived outcomes: (1) Satisfaction with the SO; (2) Experiencing health improvement after receiving a SO; (3) A difference in the diagnosis or treatment suggested in the first opinions and the second opinions; (4) Preference of the SO over the first one. Most of the respondents who sought a SO (n = 344) were above 60 years old, secular, living with a partner, perceived their income to be above average and their health status to be not so good. For the patients who utilized SOs, orthopedic surgeons were sought out more than any other medical professional.Reasons for seeking a SO included doubts about diagnosis or treatment (38%), search for a sub-specialty expert (19%) and dissatisfaction with communication (19%). SO seekers most frequently chose a specific specialist based on a recommendation from a friend or a relative (33%). About half of the SO seekers also searched for information on the internet. Most of the respondents who sought a SO mentioned that they were satisfied with it (84%), felt health improvement (77%), mentioned that there was a difference between the diagnosis or treatment between the first opinion and the SO (56%) and preferred the SO over the first one (91%). Clinical uncertainty or dissatisfaction with patient-physician communication

International survey on the management of Chiari 1 malformation and syringomyelia: evolving worldwide opinions.

PubMed

Singhal, Ash; Cheong, Alexander; Steinbok, Paul

2018-03-12

In 2003, pediatric neurosurgeons were surveyed under the auspices of the education committee of the International Society for Pediatric Neurosurgery (ISPN) to determine prevailing opinions regarding the management of Chiari I malformation (C1M) with and without associated syringomyelia. In the ensuing years, there has been further information from multiple C1M studies, with regards to indications, success rates of different surgical interventions, and complications. The purpose of this study was to re-evaluate current opinions and practices in pediatric C1M. Pediatric neurosurgeons worldwide were surveyed, using an e-mail list provided by the ISPN communication committee chairperson. Respondents were given scenarios similar to the 2003 C1M survey in order to determine opinions regarding whether to surgically intervene, and if so, with which operations. Of 300 surveys electronically distributed, 122 responses were received (40.6% response rate)-an improvement over the 30.8% response rate in 2003. Pediatric neurosurgeons from 34 different countries responded. There was broad consensus that non-operative management is appropriate in asymptomatic C1M (> 90%) as well as asymptomatic C1M with a small syrinx (> 65%). With a large syrinx, a majority (almost 80%) recommended surgical intervention. Scoliotic patients with CIM were generally offered surgery only when there was a large syrinx. There has been a shift in the surgical management over the past decade, with a bone-only decompression now being offered more commonly. There remains, however, great variability in the operation offered. This survey, with a relatively strong response rate, and with broad geographic representation, summarizes current worldwide expert opinion regarding management of pediatric C1M. Asymptomatic C1M and C1M with a small syrinx are generally managed non-operatively. When an operation is indicated, there has been a shift towards less invasive surgical approaches.

Expert opinion survey on the impacts of air pollutants on forests of the USA

Treesearch

J.M. Pye; J.E. de Steiguer; C. Love

1988-01-01

A panel of experts was surveyed to obtain five air pollutants (SO2 NO2, O3, H2SO4, and HNO3) on growth, mortality, and leaf area of forests of the continental U.S. for later input to economic analysis. Results from the first two of three...

Who are the opinion leaders? The physicians, pharmacists, patients, and direct-to-consumer prescription drug advertising.

PubMed

Lee, Annisa Lai

2010-09-01

A popular perception holds that physicians prescribe requested drugs to patients influenced by mass mediated direct-to-consumer prescription drug advertising. The phenomenon poses a serious challenge to the two-step flow model, which emphasizes the influence of opinion leaders on their followers and their legitimating power over the informing power of the mass media. This study investigates a 2002 Food and Drug Administration (FDA) survey and finds that patients searching for drug information through mass and hybrid media in newspapers and magazines' small print, the Internet, and toll-free numbers are more likely to seek information through interpersonal communication channels like health care providers. Patients using small print, toll-free numbers, one's own physician, and other physicians are associated with influencing their physicians with various drug-requesting behaviors. But physicians only prescribe requested drugs to patients who are influenced by other health care providers, such as pharmacists and other physicians, not the mass media. The influence of expert opinion leaders of drugs is so strong that the patients even would switch from their own unyielding physicians who do not prescribe drugs as advised by the pharmacists. Physicians and patients all are influenced more by other expert opinion leaders of drugs than by the mass media and therefore still uphold the basic tenet of the two-step model.

Professional opinion concerning the effectiveness of bracing relative to observation in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis.

PubMed

Dolan, Lori A; Donnelly, Melanie J; Spratt, Kevin F; Weinstein, Stuart L

2007-01-01

To determine if community equipoise exists concerning the effectiveness of bracing in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis. Bracing is the standard of care for adolescent idiopathic scoliosis despite the lack of strong reasearch evidence concerning its effectiveness. Thus, some researchers support the idea of a randomized trial, whereas others think that randomization in the face of a standard of care would be unethical. A random of Scoliosis Research Society and Pediatric Orthopaedic Society of North America members were asked to consider 12 clinical profiles and to give their opinion concerning the radiographic outcomes after observation and bracing. An expert panel was created from the respondents. They expressed a wide array of opinions concerning the percentage of patients within each scenario who would benefit from bracing. Agreement was noted concerning the risk due to bracing for post-menarchal patients only. : This study found a high degree of variability in opinion among clinicians concerning the effectiveness of bracing, suggesting that a randomized trial of bracing would be ethical.

Ethical acceptability of research on human-animal chimeric embryos: summary of opinions by the Japanese Expert Panel on Bioethics.

PubMed

Mizuno, Hiroshi; Akutsu, Hidenori; Kato, Kazuto

2015-01-01

Human-animal chimeric embryos are embryos obtained by introducing human cells into a non-human animal embryo. It is envisaged that the application of human-animal chimeric embryos may make possible many useful research projects including producing three-dimensional human organs in animals and verification of the pluripotency of human ES cells or iPS cells in vivo. The use of human-animal chimeric embryos, however, raises several ethical and moral concerns. The most fundamental one is that human-animal chimeric embryos possess the potential to develop into organisms containing human-derived tissue, which may lead to infringing upon the identity of the human species, and thus impairing human dignity. The Japanese Expert Panel on Bioethics in the Cabinet Office carefully considered the scientific significance and ethical acceptability of the issue and released its "Opinions regarding the handling of research using human-animal chimeric embryos". The Panel proposed a framework of case-by-case review, and suggested that the following points must be carefully reviewed from the perspective of ethical acceptability: (a) Types of animal embryos and types of animals receiving embryo transfers, particularly in dealing with non-human primates; (b) Types of human cells and organs intended for production, particularly in dealing with human nerve or germ cells; and (c) Extent of the period required for post-transfer studies. The scientific knowledge that can be gained from transfer into an animal uterus and from the production of an individual must be clarified to avoid unnecessary generation of chimeric animals. The time is ripe for the scientific community and governments to start discussing the ethical issues for establishing a global consensus.

Development of an Expert Judgement Elicitation and Calibration Methodology for Risk Analysis in Conceptual Vehicle Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Unal, Resit; Keating, Charles; Conway, Bruce; Chytka, Trina

2004-01-01

A comprehensive expert-judgment elicitation methodology to quantify input parameter uncertainty and analysis tool uncertainty in a conceptual launch vehicle design analysis has been developed. The ten-phase methodology seeks to obtain expert judgment opinion for quantifying uncertainties as a probability distribution so that multidisciplinary risk analysis studies can be performed. The calibration and aggregation techniques presented as part of the methodology are aimed at improving individual expert estimates, and provide an approach to aggregate multiple expert judgments into a single probability distribution. The purpose of this report is to document the methodology development and its validation through application to a reference aerospace vehicle. A detailed summary of the application exercise, including calibration and aggregation results is presented. A discussion of possible future steps in this research area is given.

The role and choice criteria of antihistamines in allergy management – expert opinion

PubMed Central

Jurkiewicz, Dariusz; Czarnecka-Operacz, Magdalena M.; Pawliczak, Rafał; Woroń, Jarosław; Moniuszko, Marcin; Emeryk, Andrzej

2016-01-01

Allergic diseases are the most common chronic conditions lasting throughout the patient’s life. They not only cause significant deterioration in the quality of life of patients but also lead to significant absenteeism and reduced productivity, resulting in very high costs for society. Effective and safe treatment of allergic diseases is therefore one of the main challenges for public health and should be carried out by all the specialists in family medicine, internists and paediatricians in collaboration with allergists, otorhinolaryngologists and dermatologists. Antihistamines are most commonly used in the treatment of allergies. Several dozen drugs are available on the pharmaceutical market, and their generic forms are advertised widely as very effective drugs for the treatment of allergic diseases. What is the truth? What are the data from clinical trials and observational studies? Are all drugs equally effective and safe for the patient? According to a panel of experts representing various fields of medicine, inappropriate treatment of allergies can be very risky for patients, and seemingly equally acting medications may differ greatly. Therefore, a panel of experts gathered the latest data from the entire scientific literature and analysed the latest standards and recommendations prepared by scientific societies. This paper provides a summary of these studies and highlights the importance for the patient of the proper choice of drug to treat his allergies. PMID:28035215

Does the weather influence public opinion about climate change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donner, S. D.; McDaniel, J.

2010-12-01

Public opinion in North America about the science of anthropogenic climate change and the motivation for policy action has been variable over the past twenty years. The trends in public opinion over time have been attributed the general lack of pressing public concern about climate change to a range of political, economic and psychological factors. One driving force behind the variability in polling data from year to year may be the weather itself. The difference between what we “expect” - the climate - and what we “get” - the weather - can be a major source of confusion and obfuscation in the public discourse about climate change. For example, reaction to moderate global temperatures in 2007 and 2008 may have helped prompt the spread of a “global cooling” meme in the public and the news media. At the same time, a decrease in the belief in the science of climate change and the need for action has been noted in opinion polls. This study analyzes the relationship between public opinion about climate change and the weather in the U.S. since the mid-1980s using historical polling data from several major organizations (e.g. Gallup, Pew, Harris Interactive, ABC News), historical monthly air temperature (NCDC) and a survey of opinion articles from major U.S. newspapers (Washington Post, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Houston Chronicle, USA Today). Seasonal and annual monthly temperature anomalies for the northeastern U.S and the continental U.S are compared with available national opinion data for three general categories of questions: i) Is the climate warming?, ii) Is the observed warming due to human activity?, and iii) Are you concerned about climate change? The variability in temperature and public opinion over time is also compared with the variability in the fraction of opinion articles in the newspapers (n ~ 7000) which express general agreement or disagreement with IPCC Summary for Policymakers consensus statements on climate change (“most of

[The role of the Medical Scientific Council's Forensic Committee in the consent judgments regarding private insurance companies].

PubMed

Horváth, János

2008-08-03

During recent years the Medical Scientific Council's Forensic Committee has provided for the professional revision of the medico-legal experts' opinions and settled the inconsonance between inconsistent opinions. This paper analyses the relationship between the revised experts' opinions in damage suits and the consent judgments. The author assesses and evaluates the role and importance of the revised experts' opinions by the Forensic Committee in the process of lawsuits. The Court has evaluated positively about two thirds of the revised experts' opinions and incorporated the Committee's answers to the forensic questions into the judgments. Sometimes it has happened that the judge misunderstood the basic medical and experts' opinions terms. In certain cases the consultant doctor of forensic medicine, the expert of social insurance and the doctor of the business insurance company used different terms, which resulted in ambiguity of terms appearing in the judgments. The author recommends to elaborate a new methodical newsletter that defines the most important experts' opinions terms and background knowledge regarding damages in a way which is clear to all, and clarifies them according to everyday practice in order to make sure that experts working in different fields and dispensers of justice use a common language.

Expert elicitation for a national-level volcano hazard model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bebbington, Mark; Stirling, Mark; Cronin, Shane; Wang, Ting; Jolly, Gill

2016-04-01

The quantification of volcanic hazard at national level is a vital pre-requisite to placing volcanic risk on a platform that permits meaningful comparison with other hazards such as earthquakes. New Zealand has up to a dozen dangerous volcanoes, with the usual mixed degrees of knowledge concerning their temporal and spatial eruptive history. Information on the 'size' of the eruptions, be it in terms of VEI, volume or duration, is sketchy at best. These limitations and the need for a uniform approach lend themselves to a subjective hazard analysis via expert elicitation. Approximately 20 New Zealand volcanologists provided estimates for the size of the next eruption from each volcano and, conditional on this, its location, timing and duration. Opinions were likewise elicited from a control group of statisticians, seismologists and (geo)chemists, all of whom had at least heard the term 'volcano'. The opinions were combined via the Cooke classical method. We will report on the preliminary results from the exercise.

A survey of student opinions on ethical design standards in Taiwan.

PubMed

Lee, Yingying; You, Manlai; Yang, Ming-Ying

2015-04-01

Design ethics has been offered as a course in undergraduate design programs in Taiwan for over a decade, but research on teaching design ethics and the results of teaching these courses is scant. We conducted two tests to examine (1) the effect of an ethics course, and (2) the differences among the effects of design department, gender, and study year on student opinions regarding ethical design standards (EDSs) at the National Yunlin University of Science and Technology (YunTech) in Taiwan. The participants comprised 934 undergraduates (660 women and 274 men) from the five design departments at YunTech's College of Design from Years 1-4. The results confirmed the effect of an ethics course on student EDS opinions. In addition, we observed significant variations among students according to design departments, suggesting that the characteristics of the design departments also affected students' EDS opinions. The results indicated that gender did not significantly affect design students' EDS opinions; however, students in their early years of study produced higher scores than those in their advanced years of study did, based on the six EDS opinions. The implications of these results for teaching design ethics and future research are discussed in this paper.

[Possibilities of medical opinionating in cases associated with "exposure to direct danger of death or serious health damage"].

PubMed

Konopka, Tomasz; Skupień, Elzbieta

2008-01-01

In the opinion of some forensic medicine experts, assessment of potential consequences in keeping with Article 160 of the Polish Penal code, which refers to the crime of "exposure to direct danger of death or severe health damage", lies within the competence of medicolegal specialists. This view is accepted by courts and prosecution offices. However, the knowledge of physicians in the field of predicting consequences which did not occur is only somewhat better than that of lawyers. In simple cases, e.g. in trauma involving a sensitive area of the body, passing an opinion confirming a serious danger is not associated with any major problems. Similarly, no problems arise when passing an opinion on the lack of such a danger e.g. in the case of traumawithout any injuries. In complex cases, however, which include the majority of medical error cases, passing an opinion on exposure to direct danger of death or severe health damage may be not feasible.

Political opinion formation: Initial opinion distribution and individual heterogeneity of tolerance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Cheng; Li, Yifu; Jin, Xiaogang

2017-02-01

Opinion dynamics on networks have received serious attention for its profound prospects in social behaviours and self-organized systems. However, political opinion formation, as one typical and significant case, remains lacking in discussion. Previous agent-based simulations propose various models that are based on different mechanisms like the coevolution between network topology and status transition. Nonetheless, even under the same network topology and with the same simple mechanism, forming opinions can still be uncertain. In this work, we propose two features, the initial distribution of opinions and the individual heterogeneity of tolerances on opinion changing, in political opinion formation. These two features are imbedded in the network construction phase of a classical model. By comparing multi simple-party systems, along with a detailed analysis on the two-party system, we capture the critical phenomenon of fragmentation, polarization and consensus both in the persistent stable stage and in-process. We further introduce the average ratio of nearest neighbours to characterize the stage of opinion formation. The results show that the initial distribution of opinions leads to different evolution results on similar random networks. In addition, the existence of stubborn nodes plays a special role: only nodes that are extremely stubborn can cause the change of final opinion distribution while in other cases they only delay the time to reach stability. If stubborn nodes are small in number, their effects are confined within a small range. This theoretical work goes deeper on an existing model, it is an early exploration on qualitative and quantitative simulation of party competition.

Leader's opinion priority bounded confidence model for network opinion evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Meixia; Xie, Guangqiang

2017-08-01

Aiming at the weight of trust someone given to participate in the interaction in Hegselmann-Krause's type consensus model is the same and virtual social networks among individuals with different level of education, personal influence, etc. For differences between agents, a novelty bounded confidence model was proposed with leader's opinion considered priority. Interaction neighbors can be divided into two kinds. The first kind is made up of "opinion leaders" group, another kind is made up of ordinary people. For different groups to give different weights of trust. We also analyzed the related characteristics of the new model under the symmetrical bounded confidence parameters and combined with the classical HK model were analyzed. Simulation experiment results show that no matter the network size and initial view is subject to uniform distribution or discrete distribution. We can control the "opinion-leader" good change the number of views and values, and even improve the convergence speed. Experiment also found that the choice of "opinion leaders" is not the more the better, the model well explain how the "opinion leader" in the process of the evolution of the public opinion play the role of the leader.

Using Pooled Local Expert Opinions (PLEO) to Discern Patterns in Sightings of Live and Dead Manatees (Trichechus senegalensis, Link 1785) in Lower Sanaga Basin, Cameroon

PubMed Central

Mayaka, Theodore B.; Takoukam Kamla, Aristide; Self-Sullivan, Caryn

2015-01-01

We aimed at unveiling patterns in live and dead manatee sightings in the Lower Sanaga Basin, Cameroon. For this purpose, the expert opinions of 133 local fishers were collected during in-person interviews, distilled using categorical data analysis, and checked against scientific literature. The five main results are as follows: manatees were sighted averagely once a week in lakes, rivers, and the coast & estuaries, mostly in group sizes of 2-3; the odds of sighting live manatees (respectively dead manatees) decreased (respectively increased) from inland lakes to estuaries and the coast, via rivers; manatee carcasses were reported in all habitats, albeit more frequently in rivers; a distribution map based on fishers’ reports show two manatee concentration areas: Lake Ossa and the Malimba-Mbiako section of River Sanaga; the number of manatees was perceived as increasing despite incidental and directed catches. Thus, our findings corroborate earlier assessments of the Lower Sanaga Basin as being a major manatee conservation area. Additionally, from these results and the literature, we identified three hypotheses about local manatee persistence: deep pools such as lakes offer year round sanctuaries, not just dry-season refugia; seasonality of specific habitat variables determine manatee occurrence patterns; and local variability in habitat encroachment mediate the meta-population dynamics of manatee in the Lower Sanaga Basin. Finally, we examine the implications for data requirements in light of the small ecological scale at which the surveyed fishers ply their trade. Thus, consonant with the Malawi principles for the ecosystem approach to management (www.cbd.int/ecosystem), we recommend collecting data preferably at landscape scale, through a participatory monitoring program that fully integrates scientific and traditional knowledge systems. This program should include, amongst others, a standardised necropsy protocol for collecting mortality and biological data

Survival of extreme opinions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, Jiann-wien; Huang, Ding-wei

2009-12-01

We study the survival of extreme opinions in various processes of consensus formation. All the opinions are treated equally and subjected to the same rules of changing. We investigate three typical models to reach a consensus in each case: (A) personal influence, (B) influence from surroundings, and (C) influence to surroundings. Starting with uniformly distributed random opinions, our calculated results show that the extreme opinions can survive in both models (A) and (B), but not in model (C). We obtain a conclusion that both personal influence and passive adaptation to the environment are not sufficient enough to eradicate all the extreme opinions. Only the active persuasion to change the surroundings eliminates the extreme opinions completely.

Expert consensus for performing right heart catheterisation for suspected pulmonary arterial hypertension in systemic sclerosis: a Delphi consensus study with cluster analysis.

PubMed

Avouac, Jérôme; Huscher, Dörte; Furst, Daniel E; Opitz, Christian F; Distler, Oliver; Allanore, Yannick

2014-01-01

To establish an expert consensus on which criteria are the most appropriate in clinical practice to refer patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc) for right heart catheterisation (RHC) when pulmonary hypertension (PH) is suspected. A three stage internet based Delphi consensus exercise involving worldwide PH experts was designed. In the first stage, a comprehensive list of domains and items combining evidence based indications and expert opinions were obtained. In the second and third stages, experts were asked to rate each item selected in the list. After each of stages 2 and 3, the number of items and criteria were reduced according to a cluster analysis. A literature search and the opinions of 47 experts participating in Delphi stage 1 provided a list of seven domains containing 142 criteria. After stages 2 and 3, these domains and tools were reduced to three domains containing eight tools: clinical (progressive dyspnoea over the past 3 months, unexplained dyspnoea, worsening of WHO dyspnoea functional class, any finding on physical examination suggestive of elevated right heart pressures and any sign of right heart failure), echocardiography (systolic pulmonary artery pressure >45 mm Hg and right ventricle dilation) and pulmonary function tests (diffusion lung capacity for carbon monoxide <50% without pulmonary fibrosis). Among experts in pulmonary arterial hypertension-SSc, a core set of criteria for clinical practice to refer SSc patients for RHC has been defined by Delphi consensus methods. Although these indications are recommended by this expert group to be used as an interim tool, it will be necessary to formally validate the present tools in further studies.

Surveying Older Adults' Opinions on Housing: Recommendations for Policy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wagner, Shannon L.; Shubair, Mamdouh M.; Michalos, Alex C.

2010-01-01

There is paucity of research investigating opinions and attitudes of seniors 55 years of age and older in relation to housing accommodation and services sensitive to the needs of the senior population. We describe the results of a cross-sectional survey soliciting opinions and attitudes of seniors with respect to a variety of housing issues…

Quantifying catchment water balances and their uncertainties by expert elicitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sebok, Eva; Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Warmink, Jord J.; Stisen, Simon; Høgh Jensen, Karsten

2017-04-01

The increasing demand on water resources necessitates a more responsible and sustainable water management requiring a thorough understanding of hydrological processes both on small scale and on catchment scale. On catchment scale, the characterization of hydrological processes is often carried out by calculating a water balance based on the principle of mass conservation in hydrological fluxes. Assuming a perfect water balance closure and estimating one of these fluxes as a residual of the water balance is a common practice although this estimate will contain uncertainties related to uncertainties in the other components. Water balance closure on the catchment scale is also an issue in Denmark, thus, it was one of the research objectives of the HOBE hydrological observatory, that has been collecting data in the Skjern river catchment since 2008. Water balance components in the 1050 km2 Ahlergaarde catchment and the nested 120 km2 Holtum catchment, located in the glacial outwash plan of the Skjern catchment, were estimated using a multitude of methods. As the collected data enables the complex assessment of uncertainty of both the individual water balance components and catchment-scale water balances, the expert elicitation approach was chosen to integrate the results of the hydrological observatory. This approach relies on the subjective opinion of experts whose available knowledge and experience about the subject allows to integrate complex information from multiple sources. In this study 35 experts were involved in a multi-step elicitation process with the aim of (1) eliciting average annual values of water balance components for two nested catchments and quantifying the contribution of different sources of uncertainties to the total uncertainty in these average annual estimates; (2) calculating water balances for two catchments by reaching consensus among experts interacting in form of group discussions. To address the complex problem of water balance closure

Use (and abuse) of expert elicitation in support of decision making for public policy

PubMed Central

Morgan, M. Granger

2014-01-01

The elicitation of scientific and technical judgments from experts, in the form of subjective probability distributions, can be a valuable addition to other forms of evidence in support of public policy decision making. This paper explores when it is sensible to perform such elicitation and how that can best be done. A number of key issues are discussed, including topics on which there are, and are not, experts who have knowledge that provides a basis for making informed predictive judgments; the inadequacy of only using qualitative uncertainty language; the role of cognitive heuristics and of overconfidence; the choice of experts; the development, refinement, and iterative testing of elicitation protocols that are designed to help experts to consider systematically all relevant knowledge when they make their judgments; the treatment of uncertainty about model functional form; diversity of expert opinion; and when it does or does not make sense to combine judgments from different experts. Although it may be tempting to view expert elicitation as a low-cost, low-effort alternative to conducting serious research and analysis, it is neither. Rather, expert elicitation should build on and use the best available research and analysis and be undertaken only when, given those, the state of knowledge will remain insufficient to support timely informed assessment and decision making. PMID:24821779

Changes in alcohol policies and public opinions in Finland 2003-2013.

PubMed

Österberg, Esa; Lindeman, Mikaela; Karlsson, Thomas

2014-05-01

There is a constant and ongoing interplay between public opinions and public policies, alcohol policies being no exception. This article describes the development of public opinions regarding alcohol policy in Finland during a 10-year period between 2003 and 2013. Fluctuations in the alcohol policy opinion climate are put in context by looking at concurrent changes in alcohol policies and in total alcohol consumption. The study is based on data from opinion surveys on alcohol policies commissioned by the National Institute for Health and Welfare and the Finnish Social and Health Association. The opinion polls include questions about the general acceptance of prevailing alcohol policies, appropriate sales channels of different alcoholic beverage categories and opinions about the legal age limits and prices of alcoholic beverages. In the study, changes in alcohol policy during 2003-2013 are surveyed, and their relationship with changes in alcohol policy opinion is examined. There seem to be a strong positive correlation during the study period between the level of alcohol consumption and the share of those wanting a more restrictive alcohol policy in Finland. It seems that an increased level of awareness of alcohol-related issues among the general public created a more restrictive opinion climate on alcohol policy issues after the big alcohol excise duty decrease in 2004. The reverse seems to happen but in a lesser degree when alcohol excise duties has been increased after the year 2007. © 2014 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

Professional Opinion Concerning the Effectiveness of Bracing Relative to Observation in Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis

PubMed Central

Dolan, Lori A.; Donnelly, Melanie J.; Spratt, Kevin F.; Weinstein, Stuart L.

2015-01-01

Objective To determine if community equipoise exists concerning the effectiveness of bracing in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis. Background Data Bracing is the standard of care for adolescent idiopathic scoliosis despite the lack of strong reasearch evidence concerning its effectiveness. Thus, some researchers support the idea of a randomized trial, whereas others think that randomization in the face of a standard of care would be unethical. Methods A random of Scoliosis Research Society and Pediatric Orthopaedic Society of North America members were asked to consider 12 clinical profiles and to give their opinion concerning the radiographic outcomes after observation and bracing. Results An expert panel was created from the respondents. They expressed a wide array of opinions concerning the percentage of patients within each scenario who would benefit from bracing. Agreement was noted concerning the risk due to bracing for post-menarchal patients only. Conclusions This study found a high degree of variability in opinion among clinicians concerning the effectiveness of bracing, suggesting that a randomized trial of bracing would be ethical. PMID:17414008

Sherlock Holmes: an expert's view of expertise.

PubMed

André, Didierjean; Fernand, Gobet

2008-02-01

In recent years, there has been an intense research effort to understand the cognitive processes and structures underlying expert behaviour. Work in different fields, including scientific domains, sports, games and mnemonics, has shown that there are vast differences in perceptual abilities between experts and novices, and that these differences may underpin other cognitive differences in learning, memory and problem solving. In this article, we evaluate the progress made in the last years through the eyes of an outstanding, albeit fictional, expert: Sherlock Holmes. We first use the Sherlock Holmes character to illustrate expert processes as described by current research and theories. In particular, the role of perception, as well as the nature and influence of expert knowledge, are all present in the description of Conan Doyle's hero. In the second part of the article, we discuss a number of issues that current research on expertise has barely addressed. These gaps include, for example, several forms of reasoning, the influence of emotions on cognition, and the effect of age on experts' knowledge and cognitive processes. Thus, although nearly 120-year-old, Conan Doyle's books show remarkable illustrations of expert behaviour, including the coverage of themes that have mostly been overlooked by current research.

“Can It Read My Mind?” – What Do the Public and Experts Think of the Current (Mis)Uses of Neuroimaging?

PubMed Central

Wardlaw, Joanna M.; O'Connell, Garret; Shuler, Kirsten; DeWilde, Janet; Haley, Jane; Escobar, Oliver; Murray, Shaun; Rae, Robert; Jarvie, Donald; Sandercock, Peter; Schafer, Burkhard

2011-01-01

Emerging applications of neuroimaging outside medicine and science have received intense public exposure through the media. Media misrepresentations can create a gulf between public and scientific understanding of the capabilities of neuroimaging and raise false expectations. To determine the extent of this effect and determine public opinions on acceptable uses and the need for regulation, we designed an electronic survey to obtain anonymous opinions from as wide a range of members of the public and neuroimaging experts as possible. The surveys ran from 1st June to 30 September 2010, asked 10 and 21 questions, respectively, about uses of neuroimaging outside traditional medical diagnosis, data storage, science communication and potential methods of regulation. We analysed the responses using descriptive statistics; 660 individuals responded to the public and 303 individuals responded to the expert survey. We found evidence of public skepticism about the use of neuroimaging for applications such as lie detection or to determine consumer preferences and considerable disquiet about use by employers or government and about how their data would be stored and used. While also somewhat skeptical about new applications of neuroimaging, experts grossly underestimated how often neuroimaging had been used as evidence in court. Although both the public and the experts rated highly the importance of a better informed public in limiting the inappropriate uses to which neuroimaging might be put, opinions differed on the need for, and mechanism of, actual regulation. Neuroscientists recognized the risks of inaccurate reporting of neuroimaging capabilities in the media but showed little motivation to engage with the public. The present study also emphasizes the need for better frameworks for scientific engagement with media and public education. PMID:21991367

The Future of Forest Management on NIPF Lands in the South: Results of an Expert Opinion Survey

Treesearch

Steverson O. Moffat; Frederick W. Cubbage; Anthony J. Cascio; Raymond M. Sheffield

1998-01-01

A survey was sent to each state forester in the 13 states in the Southeast and South Central Regions to ask their opinions regarding the future of forest management on NIPF lands in their state. The results indicate that changes are in store for NIPF lands between now and 2020. Planted pine is projected to increase 7% in area in the South, largely at the expense of...

Setting health research priorities using the CHNRI method: VI. Quantitative properties of human collective opinion.

PubMed

Yoshida, Sachiyo; Rudan, Igor; Cousens, Simon

2016-06-01

Crowdsourcing has become an increasingly important tool to address many problems - from government elections in democracies, stock market prices, to modern online tools such as TripAdvisor or Internet Movie Database (IMDB). The CHNRI method (the acronym for the Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative) for setting health research priorities has crowdsourcing as the major component, which it uses to generate, assess and prioritize between many competing health research ideas. We conducted a series of analyses using data from a group of 91 scorers to explore the quantitative properties of their collective opinion. We were interested in the stability of their collective opinion as the sample size increases from 15 to 90. From a pool of 91 scorers who took part in a previous CHNRI exercise, we used sampling with replacement to generate multiple random samples of different size. First, for each sample generated, we identified the top 20 ranked research ideas, among 205 that were proposed and scored, and calculated the concordance with the ranking generated by the 91 original scorers. Second, we used rank correlation coefficients to compare the ranks assigned to all 205 proposed research ideas when samples of different size are used. We also analysed the original pool of 91 scorers to to look for evidence of scoring variations based on scorers' characteristics. The sample sizes investigated ranged from 15 to 90. The concordance for the top 20 scored research ideas increased with sample sizes up to about 55 experts. At this point, the median level of concordance stabilized at 15/20 top ranked questions (75%), with the interquartile range also generally stable (14-16). There was little further increase in overlap when the sample size increased from 55 to 90. When analysing the ranking of all 205 ideas, the rank correlation coefficient increased as the sample size increased, with a median correlation of 0.95 reached at the sample size of 45 experts (median of the rank

Four years with FALCON - an ESTRO educational project: achievements and perspectives.

PubMed

Eriksen, Jesper Grau; Salembier, Carl; Rivera, Sofia; De Bari, Berardino; Berger, Daniel; Mantello, Giovanna; Müller, Arndt-Christian; Martin, Arturo Navarro; Pasini, Danilo; Tanderup, Kari; Palmu, Miika; Verfaillie, Christine; Pötter, Richard; Valentini, Vincenzo

2014-07-01

Variability in anatomical contouring is one of the important uncertainties in radiotherapy. FALCON (Fellowship in Anatomic deLineation and CONtouring) is an educational ESTRO (European SocieTy for Radiation and Oncology) project devoted to improve interactive teaching, the homogeneity in contouring and to compare individual contours with endorsed guidelines or expert opinions. This report summarizes the experience from the first 4 years using FALCON for educational activities within ESTRO School and presents the perspectives for the future. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fire Effects, Education, and Expert Systems

Treesearch

Robert E. Martin

1987-01-01

Predicting the effects of fires in the year 2000 and beyond will be enhanced by the use of expert systems. Although our predictions may have broad confidence limits, expert systems should help us to improve the predictions and to focus on the areas where improved knowledge is most needed. The knowledge of experts can be incorporated into previously existing knowledge...

[The CSI effect and its impact on the perceptions of forensic science experts' work].

PubMed

Stojer, Joanna

2011-01-01

The issue that has been analyzed in this work is the potential effect of crime films and TV series on people's perceptions of forensic medicine and science, and especially on the forming of expectations towards forensic science experts. This syndrome is being called the "CSI effect" after the popular franchise Crime Scene Investigation (CSI). Questionnaire surveys that have been conducted included "experts": 50 experts in various specialities, 77 prosecutors, 119 judges, 64 lay judges, 161 police staff and 80 members of general public. In-depth interviews have been conducted with 20 police staff, and also a focus group has been carried out with 15 law students. In the opinion of the respondents, people's perceptions and expectations of forensic science--as it can be observed during criminal trials--are largely inflated by the entertainment media. Among the surveyed persons, the category that declares watching crime series most rarely, is forensic science experts. Around half of the surveyed experts pointed out to excessive expectations towards they work instigated by TV crime series. The most common expectations towards forensic medicine experts are: immediate conclusiveness of post mortem examinations (going as far as indicating the cause of death at the crime scene), precision of death time estimation and a routine use of sophisticated methods known from TV.

21 CFR 170.6 - Opinion letters on food additive status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 3 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Opinion letters on food additive status. 170.6... (CONTINUED) FOOD FOR HUMAN CONSUMPTION (CONTINUED) FOOD ADDITIVES General Provisions § 170.6 Opinion letters on food additive status. (a) Over the years the Food and Drug Administration has given informal...

21 CFR 170.6 - Opinion letters on food additive status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 3 2010-04-01 2009-04-01 true Opinion letters on food additive status. 170.6... (CONTINUED) FOOD FOR HUMAN CONSUMPTION (CONTINUED) FOOD ADDITIVES General Provisions § 170.6 Opinion letters on food additive status. (a) Over the years the Food and Drug Administration has given informal...

21 CFR 170.6 - Opinion letters on food additive status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 3 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Opinion letters on food additive status. 170.6... (CONTINUED) FOOD FOR HUMAN CONSUMPTION (CONTINUED) FOOD ADDITIVES General Provisions § 170.6 Opinion letters on food additive status. (a) Over the years the Food and Drug Administration has given informal...

21 CFR 170.6 - Opinion letters on food additive status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 3 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Opinion letters on food additive status. 170.6... (CONTINUED) FOOD FOR HUMAN CONSUMPTION (CONTINUED) FOOD ADDITIVES General Provisions § 170.6 Opinion letters on food additive status. (a) Over the years the Food and Drug Administration has given informal...

Factors influencing societal response of nanotechnology: an expert stakeholder analysis.

PubMed

Gupta, Nidhi; Fischer, Arnout R H; van der Lans, Ivo A; Frewer, Lynn J

2012-05-01

Nanotechnology can be described as an emerging technology and, as has been the case with other emerging technologies such as genetic modification, different socio-psychological factors will potentially influence societal responses to its development and application. These factors will play an important role in how nanotechnology is developed and commercialised. This article aims to identify expert opinion on factors influencing societal response to applications of nanotechnology. Structured interviews with experts on nanotechnology from North West Europe were conducted using repertory grid methodology in conjunction with generalized Procrustes analysis to examine the psychological constructs underlying societal uptake of 15 key applications of nanotechnology drawn from different areas (e.g. medicine, agriculture and environment, chemical, food, military, sports, and cosmetics). Based on expert judgement, the main factors influencing societal response to different applications of nanotechnology will be the extent to which applications are perceived to be beneficial, useful, and necessary, and how 'real' and physically close to the end-user these applications are perceived to be by the public. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s11051-012-0857-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The First Expert CAI System

PubMed Central

Feurzeig, Wallace

1984-01-01

The first expert instructional system, the Socratic System, was developed in 1964. One of the earliest applications of this system was in the area of differential diagnosis in clinical medicine. The power of the underlying instructional paradigm was demonstrated and the potential of the approach for valuably supplementing medical instruction was recognized. Twenty years later, despite further educationally significant advances in expert systems technology and enormous reductions in the cost of computers, expert instructional methods have found very little application in medical schools.

Opinion dynamics in activity-driven networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Dandan; Han, Dun; Ma, Jing; Sun, Mei; Tian, Lixin; Khouw, Timothy; Stanley, H. Eugene

2017-10-01

Social interaction between individuals constantly affects the development of their personal opinions. Previous models such as the Deffuant model and the Hegselmann-Krause (HK) model have assumed that individuals only update their opinions after interacting with neighbors whose opinions are similar to their own. However, people are capable of communicating widely with all of their neighbors to gather their ideas and opinions, even if they encounter a number of opposing attitudes. We propose a model in which agents listen to the opinions of all their neighbors. Continuous opinion dynamics are investigated in activity-driven networks with a tolerance threshold. We study how the initial opinion distribution, tolerance threshold, opinion-updating speed, and activity rate affect the evolution of opinion. We find that when the initial fraction of positive opinion is small, all opinions become negative by the end of the simulation. As the initial fraction of positive opinions rises above a certain value —about 0.45— the final fraction of positive opinions sharply increases and eventually equals 1. Increased tolerance threshold δ is found to lead to a more varied final opinion distribution. We also find that if the negative opinion has an initial advantage, the final fraction of negative opinion increases and reaches its peak as the updating speed λ approaches 0.5. Finally we show that the lower the activity rate of individuals, the greater the fluctuation range of their opinions.

21 CFR 570.6 - Opinion letters on food additive status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 6 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Opinion letters on food additive status. 570.6... (CONTINUED) ANIMAL DRUGS, FEEDS, AND RELATED PRODUCTS FOOD ADDITIVES General Provisions § 570.6 Opinion letters on food additive status. (a) Over the years the Food and Drug Administration has given informal...

21 CFR 570.6 - Opinion letters on food additive status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 6 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Opinion letters on food additive status. 570.6... (CONTINUED) ANIMAL DRUGS, FEEDS, AND RELATED PRODUCTS FOOD ADDITIVES General Provisions § 570.6 Opinion letters on food additive status. (a) Over the years the Food and Drug Administration has given informal...

21 CFR 570.6 - Opinion letters on food additive status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 6 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Opinion letters on food additive status. 570.6... (CONTINUED) ANIMAL DRUGS, FEEDS, AND RELATED PRODUCTS FOOD ADDITIVES General Provisions § 570.6 Opinion letters on food additive status. (a) Over the years the Food and Drug Administration has given informal...

21 CFR 570.6 - Opinion letters on food additive status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 6 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Opinion letters on food additive status. 570.6... (CONTINUED) ANIMAL DRUGS, FEEDS, AND RELATED PRODUCTS FOOD ADDITIVES General Provisions § 570.6 Opinion letters on food additive status. (a) Over the years the Food and Drug Administration has given informal...

21 CFR 570.6 - Opinion letters on food additive status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 6 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Opinion letters on food additive status. 570.6... (CONTINUED) ANIMAL DRUGS, FEEDS, AND RELATED PRODUCTS FOOD ADDITIVES General Provisions § 570.6 Opinion letters on food additive status. (a) Over the years the Food and Drug Administration has given informal...

Public Opinion as Collective Coorientation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tipton, Leonard; And Others

To conceptualize public opinion as something other than "mere aggregation" of individual opinions requires systemic models that identify component parts of public opinion and their structural/functional relationships. Operationalization requires asking respondents not only their individual opinion, but also their perception of public…

French experts report on MUTYH-associated polyposis (MAP).

PubMed

Buecher, Bruno; Bonaïti, Catherine; Buisine, Marie-Pierre; Colas, Chrystelle; Saurin, Jean-Christophe

2012-09-01

Recent years have been characterised by an improvement in our knowledge of genetic determinism of adenomatous polyposes and by the description in 2002 of a new entity called "MUTYH-associated polyposis" (MAP), related to biallelic mutations of this gene. Its autosomal recessive mode of inheritance contrasts with the autosomal dominant inheritance of the classical "familial adenomatous polyposis" (FAP), associated with an APC germline mutation. Although some phenotypic features may be of value to distinguish these two conditions, their clinical "spectra" largely overlap and the differential diagnosis may be difficult. The purpose of this expertise conducted under the auspices of the French Institut National du Cancer (INCa) was to assess the current state of knowledge on MUTYH-associated polyposis and to establish some recommendations in the field of molecular analysis (indications of tests and analysis strategies for affected patients and their relatives) and of clinical management based on available data in the literature, on the results from the French molecular genetics laboratories performing MUTYH analysis and on the opinions of biologists and clinicians experts (genetic counsellors and gastroenterologists). The risk of colorectal cancer among relatives carrying a monoallelic MUTYH mutation was also studied.

Management of uncertainties on parameters elicited by experts - Applications to sea-level rise and to CO2 storage operations risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manceau, Jean-Charles; Loschetter, Annick; Rohmer, Jérémy; Le Cozannet, Gonéri; Lary Louis, de; Guénan Thomas, Le; Ken, Hnottavange-Telleen

2017-04-01

In a context of high degree of uncertainty, when very few data are available, experts are commonly requested to provide their opinions on input parameters of risk assessment models. Not only might each expert express a certain degree of uncertainty on his/her own statements, but the set of information collected from the pool of experts introduces an additional level of uncertainty. It is indeed very unlikely that all experts agree on exactly the same data, especially regarding parameters needed for natural risk assessments. In some cases, their opinions may differ only slightly (e.g. the most plausible value for a parameter is similar for different experts, and they only disagree on the level of uncertainties that taint the said value) while on other cases they may express incompatible opinions for a same parameter. Dealing with these different kinds of uncertainties remains a challenge for assessing geological hazards or/and risks. Extra-probabilistic approaches (such as the Dempster-Shafer theory or the possibility theory) have shown to offer promising solutions for representing parameters on which the knowledge is limited. It is the case for instance when the available information prevents an expert from identifying a unique probability law to picture the total uncertainty. Moreover, such approaches are known to be particularly flexible when it comes to aggregating several and potentially conflicting opinions. We therefore propose to discuss the opportunity of applying these new theories for managing the uncertainties on parameters elicited by experts, by a comparison with the application of more classical probability approaches. The discussion is based on two different examples. The first example deals with the estimation of the injected CO2 plume extent in a reservoir in the context of CO2 geological storage. This estimation requires information on the effective porosity of the reservoir, which has been estimated by 14 different experts. The Dempster

Evaluation of 12 strategies for obtaining second opinions to improve interpretation of breast histopathology: simulation study

PubMed Central

Tosteson, Anna NA; Pepe, Margaret S; Longton, Gary M; Nelson, Heidi D; Geller, Berta; Carney, Patricia A; Onega, Tracy; Allison, Kimberly H; Jackson, Sara L; Weaver, Donald L

2016-01-01

Objective To evaluate the potential effect of second opinions on improving the accuracy of diagnostic interpretation of breast histopathology. Design Simulation study. Setting 12 different strategies for acquiring independent second opinions. Participants Interpretations of 240 breast biopsy specimens by 115 pathologists, one slide for each case, compared with reference diagnoses derived by expert consensus. Main outcome measures Misclassification rates for individual pathologists and for 12 simulated strategies for second opinions. Simulations compared accuracy of diagnoses from single pathologists with that of diagnoses based on pairing interpretations from first and second independent pathologists, where resolution of disagreements was by an independent third pathologist. 12 strategies were evaluated in which acquisition of second opinions depended on initial diagnoses, assessment of case difficulty or borderline characteristics, pathologists’ clinical volumes, or whether a second opinion was required by policy or desired by the pathologists. The 240 cases included benign without atypia (10% non-proliferative, 20% proliferative without atypia), atypia (30%), ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS, 30%), and invasive cancer (10%). Overall misclassification rates and agreement statistics depended on the composition of the test set, which included a higher prevalence of difficult cases than in typical practice. Results Misclassification rates significantly decreased (P<0.001) with all second opinion strategies except for the strategy limiting second opinions only to cases of invasive cancer. The overall misclassification rate decreased from 24.7% to 18.1% when all cases received second opinions (P<0.001). Obtaining both first and second opinions from pathologists with a high volume (≥10 breast biopsy specimens weekly) resulted in the lowest misclassification rate in this test set (14.3%, 95% confidence interval 10.9% to 18.0%). Obtaining second opinions only for

The Use of Native Language in L2 Teaching: A Case Study of English Department and Preparatory Year, Najran University, Saudi Arabia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Al-Dera, Abdullah Saad

2011-01-01

Despite many ELT experts' opinions that while teaching a foreign language one should not use the mother tongue in the classroom, new researches show that sparing use of the mother tongue can be effective for the L2 learners. It is true that the 6- year compulsory English education of the school graduates of Saudi Arabia is not quite up to the…

Opinion evolution influenced by informed agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Kangqi; Pedrycz, Witold

2016-11-01

Guiding public opinions toward a pre-set target by informed agents can be a strategy adopted in some practical applications. The informed agents are common agents who are employed or chosen to spread the pre-set opinion. In this work, we propose a social judgment based opinion (SJBO) dynamics model to explore the opinion evolution under the influence of informed agents. The SJBO model distinguishes between inner opinions and observable choices, and incorporates both the compromise between similar opinions and the repulsion between dissimilar opinions. Three choices (support, opposition, and remaining undecided) are considered in the SJBO model. Using the SJBO model, both the inner opinions and the observable choices can be tracked during the opinion evolution process. The simulation results indicate that if the exchanges of inner opinions among agents are not available, the effect of informed agents is mainly dependent on the characteristics of regular agents, including the assimilation threshold, decay threshold, and initial opinions. Increasing the assimilation threshold and decay threshold can improve the guiding effectiveness of informed agents. Moreover, if the initial opinions of regular agents are close to null, the full and unanimous consensus at the pre-set opinion can be realized, indicating that, to maximize the influence of informed agents, the guidance should be started when regular agents have little knowledge about a subject under consideration. If the regular agents have had clear opinions, the full and unanimous consensus at the pre-set opinion cannot be achieved. However, the introduction of informed agents can make the majority of agents choose the pre-set opinion.

Educator of the Court: The Role of the Expert Witness in Cases Involving Autism Spectrum Disorder

PubMed Central

Berryessa, Colleen M.

2017-01-01

The role of the expert witness in legal contexts is to educate fact finders of the court who may have no background in the expert’s area. This role can be especially difficult for those who assist in cases involving individuals with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). As expert assistance on ASD is crucial to ensuring just outcomes for individuals diagnosed with ASD, knowledge on how expert witnesses perceive and approach their roles, and what factors may influence these perceptions, is essential. This qualitative research utilizes semi-structured interviews with a sample of expert witnesses in cases involving ASD, analyzed using a grounded-theory constant comparative analytic approach. Data reveal that experts appear to view their roles in court as reconstructionists, educators, myth-dispellers, and most of all, communicators, actively using their testimony to fill these roles in cases. These results also allow for the development of a model that illustrates two areas that coalesce to affect how experts view their roles in court: (1) personal experiences of experts in cases in which they have been involved; and (2) influences outside experts’ personal experiences, such as their general opinions or observations regarding ASD and its relationship to the criminal justice system. PMID:28943746

Experts' beliefs on physiotherapy for patients with ankylosing spondylitis and assessment of their knowledge on published evidence in the field. Results of a questionnaire among international ASAS members.

PubMed

Mihai, B; van der Linden, S; de Bie, R; Stucki, G

2005-06-01

The aim of this study was to assess both the opinion of an international group of experts about the place and importance of physiotherapy in the management of ankylosing spondylitis (AS) as well as the awareness of the responders about scientific evidence on efficacy and cost-effectiveness of physiotherapy in AS. An e-mail questionnaire ''Experts' Beliefs on Physiotherapy for Patients with Ankylosing Spondylitis'' has been sent to all 71 international ASsessment of Ankylosing Spondylitis (ASAS) members. Completion of the twenty-eight-item questionnaire was done through the ASAS website (www.ASAS-group.org). The number of responders was 53 (response rate 73%). Altogether 94% of the responders regard themselves as experts in the field of clinical care for AS patients. There is almost unanimous (86-92%) consensus on the efficacy of physiotherapy (widely defined, i.e. as physical therapy-including exercises, application of physical modalities and spa-therapy) for patients with axial and peripheral joint manifestations of AS. Physiotherapy is considered to be indicated for both early AS (less than 2 years after diagnosis) (88%) and AS of longer duration (2 to 10 years) (94%), implying that this non-pharmaceutical intervention should be made available for or should be prescribed to AS patients. Also daily exercises at home are considered indicated for both early (less than 2 years after diagnosis) AS (90%) and AS of longer duration of disease (90%). High-level evidence (Cochrane reviews or publications of one or more randomized controlled clinical trials) favoring efficacy of physiotherapy was considered available by 33% of the participants, whereas 43% replied ''no'' and 24% did not know. Finally, excluding the costs of the intervention, 39% of the participants reported that Spa-therapy might reduce health care costs as usage of NSAIDs, physician visits and ability to work or sick leave, whereas 26% said ''no'' and 35% did not know. The international ASAS experts hold a

Opinion Integration and Summarization

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lu, Yue

2011-01-01

As Web 2.0 applications become increasingly popular, more and more people express their opinions on the Web in various ways in real time. Such wide coverage of topics and abundance of users make the Web an extremely valuable source for mining people's opinions about all kinds of topics. However, since the opinions are usually expressed as…

The Natural Gas Dilemma in New England's Electricity Sector: Experts' Perspectives on Long Term Climate Issues and Policy Opportunities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffith, Steven

This thesis is an interpretive analysis of experts' perspectives on the climate implications of New England's reliance on natural gas for electricity generation. Specifically, this research, conducted through interviews and literature review, examines experts' opinions on the desired role of natural gas within the regional electricity sector, alternative energy resources, and state and regional policy opportunities toward the achievement of New England's ambitious long-term greenhouse gas reduction goals. Experts expressed concern about the climate dilemma posed by a dependence on natural gas. However, interviews revealed that short-term reliability and cost considerations are paramount for many experts, and therefore a reliance on natural gas is the existing reality. To incentivize renewable generation technologies for the purposes of long-term climate stabilization, experts advocated for the expanded implementation of renewable portfolio standard, net metering, and feed-in tariff policies. More broadly, interviewees expressed the need for an array of complementary state and regional policies.

An expert review of the scientific literature on independent wheelchair transfers.

PubMed

Koontz, Alicia; Toro, Maria; Kankipati, Padmaja; Naber, Megan; Cooper, Rory

2012-01-01

The purpose of this study was to perform a literature review and seek expert opinion on the relevance and strength of the evidence concerning setup and transfer performance. Scientific literature databases were searched until June 2009 using 43 keywords resulting in 339 articles. These were internally reviewed and narrowed to 41 articles which were formally assessed by 13 external experts. Articles that 80% or more of the reviewers scored as moderately or highly relevant were included in the final results. Nineteen articles met the relevancy criteria. The aspects of setup that experts felt were addressed to some degree included vertical transfer distance, transferring across a gap and position of the mobility device relative to target destination. None of the 19 articles were scored as having strong to very strong resulting evidence. There is a consensus among studies that transferring to a higher surface implies greater exertion of the upper limb. However, there is no evidence concerning how high or low, how close, and how much space is needed next to the target surface so it can be accessible by a majority of wheelchair users.

Expert guidelines for the management of Alport syndrome and thin basement membrane nephropathy.

PubMed

Savige, Judy; Gregory, Martin; Gross, Oliver; Kashtan, Clifford; Ding, Jie; Flinter, Frances

2013-02-01

Few prospective, randomized controlled clinical trials address the diagnosis and management of patients with Alport syndrome or thin basement membrane nephropathy. Adult and pediatric nephrologists and geneticists from four continents whose clinical practice focuses on these conditions have developed the following guidelines. The 18 recommendations are based on Level D (Expert opinion without explicit critical appraisal, or based on physiology, bench research, or first principles-National Health Service category) or Level III (Opinions of respected authorities, based on clinical experience, descriptive studies, or reports of expert committees-U.S. Preventive Services Task Force) evidence. The recommendations include the use of genetic testing as the gold standard for the diagnosis of Alport syndrome and the demonstration of its mode of inheritance; the need to identify and follow all affected members of a family with X-linked Alport syndrome, including most mothers of affected males; the treatment of males with X-linked Alport syndrome and individuals with autosomal recessive disease with renin-angiotensin system blockade, possibly even before the onset of proteinuria; discouraging the affected mothers of males with X-linked Alport syndrome from renal donation because of their own risk of kidney failure; and consideration of genetic testing to exclude X-linked Alport syndrome in some individuals with thin basement membrane nephropathy. The authors recognize that as evidence emerges, including data from patient registries, these guidelines will evolve further.

Behavioural Signs of Pain in Cats: An Expert Consensus

PubMed Central

Merola, Isabella; Mills, Daniel S.

2016-01-01

Objectives To identify where a consensus can be reached between veterinary experts in feline medicine on the core signs sufficient for pain (sufficient to indicate pain when they occur, but not necessarily present in all painful conditions) and necessary for pain (necessary in the presence of pain, but not always indicative of pain). Methods A modified Delphi technique was used, consisting of four rounds of questions and evaluation using nineteen participants during the period December 2014 and May 2015. Agreement was considered to be established when 80% of the experts concurred with the same opinion. Results Twenty-five signs were considered sufficient to indicate pain, but no single sign was considered necessary for it. Discussion Further studies are needed to evaluate the validity of these 25 behavioural signs if a specific pain assessment tool is to be developed that is capable of assessing pain in cats based on observational methods alone. The signs reported here may nonetheless help both vets and owners form an initial evaluation of the pain status of cats in their care. PMID:26909809

Expert Recommendations on Treating Psoriasis in Special Circumstances (Part II).

PubMed

Carrascosa, J M; Galán, M; de Lucas, R; Pérez-Ferriols, A; Ribera, M; Yanguas, I

2016-11-01

There is insufficient information on how best to treat moderate to severe psoriasis in difficult clinical circumstances. We considered 5 areas where there is conflicting or insufficient evidence: pediatric psoriasis, risk of infection in patients being treated with biologics, psoriasis in difficult locations, biologic drug survival, and impact of disease on quality of life. Following discussion of the issues by an expert panel of dermatologists specialized in the management of psoriasis, participants answered a questionnaire survey according to the Delphi method. Consensus was reached on 66 (70.9%) of the 93 items analyzed; the experts agreed with 49 statements and disagreed with 17. It was agreed that body mass index, metabolic comorbidities, and quality of life should be monitored in children with psoriasis. The experts also agreed that the most appropriate systemic treatment for this age group was methotrexate, while the most appropriate biologic treatment was etanercept. Although it was recognized that the available evidence was inconsistent and difficult to extrapolate, the panel agreed that biologic drug survival could be increased by flexible, individualized dosing regimens, continuous treatment, and combination therapies. Finally, consensus was reached on using the Dermatology Quality of Life Index to assess treatment effectiveness and aid decision-making in clinical practice. The structured opinion of experts guides decision-making regarding aspects of clinical practice for which there is incomplete or conflicting information. Copyright © 2016 AEDV. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Setting health research priorities using the CHNRI method: VI. Quantitative properties of human collective opinion

PubMed Central

Yoshida, Sachiyo; Rudan, Igor; Cousens, Simon

2016-01-01

Introduction Crowdsourcing has become an increasingly important tool to address many problems – from government elections in democracies, stock market prices, to modern online tools such as TripAdvisor or Internet Movie Database (IMDB). The CHNRI method (the acronym for the Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative) for setting health research priorities has crowdsourcing as the major component, which it uses to generate, assess and prioritize between many competing health research ideas. Methods We conducted a series of analyses using data from a group of 91 scorers to explore the quantitative properties of their collective opinion. We were interested in the stability of their collective opinion as the sample size increases from 15 to 90. From a pool of 91 scorers who took part in a previous CHNRI exercise, we used sampling with replacement to generate multiple random samples of different size. First, for each sample generated, we identified the top 20 ranked research ideas, among 205 that were proposed and scored, and calculated the concordance with the ranking generated by the 91 original scorers. Second, we used rank correlation coefficients to compare the ranks assigned to all 205 proposed research ideas when samples of different size are used. We also analysed the original pool of 91 scorers to to look for evidence of scoring variations based on scorers' characteristics. Results The sample sizes investigated ranged from 15 to 90. The concordance for the top 20 scored research ideas increased with sample sizes up to about 55 experts. At this point, the median level of concordance stabilized at 15/20 top ranked questions (75%), with the interquartile range also generally stable (14–16). There was little further increase in overlap when the sample size increased from 55 to 90. When analysing the ranking of all 205 ideas, the rank correlation coefficient increased as the sample size increased, with a median correlation of 0.95 reached at the sample size

[Ophthalmological opinions for liability affairs material damage (Part I) (author's transl)].

PubMed

Burggraf, H

1979-02-01

German law abides anyone reponsible for the damage he or she has caused to another person's property or corporal integrity. This includes all medical costs directed towards the restitution of health as well as economical damage in direct consequence of the corporal damage. An ophthalmological expert is to state his opinion therefore in accordance with the specific conditions of every individual case and not just according to general charts. Financial compensation is only granted for the actual results of damage inquestion. Prior damage and disability have to be remarked but not to justify a financial compensation. The question of smart-money is dealt with in Part II.

Design a Fuzzy Rule-based Expert System to Aid Earlier Diagnosis of Gastric Cancer.

PubMed

Safdari, Reza; Arpanahi, Hadi Kazemi; Langarizadeh, Mostafa; Ghazisaiedi, Marjan; Dargahi, Hossein; Zendehdel, Kazem

2018-01-01

Screening and health check-up programs are most important sanitary priorities, that should be undertaken to control dangerous diseases such as gastric cancer that affected by different factors. More than 50% of gastric cancer diagnoses are made during the advanced stage. Currently, there is no systematic approach for early diagnosis of gastric cancer. to develop a fuzzy expert system that can identify gastric cancer risk levels in individuals. This system was implemented in MATLAB software, Mamdani inference technique applied to simulate reasoning of experts in the field, a total of 67 fuzzy rules extracted as a rule-base based on medical expert's opinion. 50 case scenarios were used to evaluate the system, the information of case reports is given to the system to find risk level of each case report then obtained results were compared with expert's diagnosis. Results revealed that sensitivity was 92.1% and the specificity was 83.1%. The results show that is possible to develop a system that can identify High risk individuals for gastric cancer. The system can lead to earlier diagnosis, this may facilitate early treatment and reduce gastric cancer mortality rate.

Utilizing Expert Knowledge in Estimating Future STS Costs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fortner, David B.; Ruiz-Torres, Alex J.

2004-01-01

A method of estimating the costs of future space transportation systems (STSs) involves classical activity-based cost (ABC) modeling combined with systematic utilization of the knowledge and opinions of experts to extend the process-flow knowledge of existing systems to systems that involve new materials and/or new architectures. The expert knowledge is particularly helpful in filling gaps that arise in computational models of processes because of inconsistencies in historical cost data. Heretofore, the costs of planned STSs have been estimated following a "top-down" approach that tends to force the architectures of new systems to incorporate process flows like those of the space shuttles. In this ABC-based method, one makes assumptions about the processes, but otherwise follows a "bottoms up" approach that does not force the new system architecture to incorporate a space-shuttle-like process flow. Prototype software has been developed to implement this method. Through further development of software, it should be possible to extend the method beyond the space program to almost any setting in which there is a need to estimate the costs of a new system and to extend the applicable knowledge base in order to make the estimate.

Evaluation of 12 strategies for obtaining second opinions to improve interpretation of breast histopathology: simulation study.

PubMed

Elmore, Joann G; Tosteson, Anna Na; Pepe, Margaret S; Longton, Gary M; Nelson, Heidi D; Geller, Berta; Carney, Patricia A; Onega, Tracy; Allison, Kimberly H; Jackson, Sara L; Weaver, Donald L

2016-06-22

 To evaluate the potential effect of second opinions on improving the accuracy of diagnostic interpretation of breast histopathology.  Simulation study.  12 different strategies for acquiring independent second opinions.  Interpretations of 240 breast biopsy specimens by 115 pathologists, one slide for each case, compared with reference diagnoses derived by expert consensus.  Misclassification rates for individual pathologists and for 12 simulated strategies for second opinions. Simulations compared accuracy of diagnoses from single pathologists with that of diagnoses based on pairing interpretations from first and second independent pathologists, where resolution of disagreements was by an independent third pathologist. 12 strategies were evaluated in which acquisition of second opinions depended on initial diagnoses, assessment of case difficulty or borderline characteristics, pathologists' clinical volumes, or whether a second opinion was required by policy or desired by the pathologists. The 240 cases included benign without atypia (10% non-proliferative, 20% proliferative without atypia), atypia (30%), ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS, 30%), and invasive cancer (10%). Overall misclassification rates and agreement statistics depended on the composition of the test set, which included a higher prevalence of difficult cases than in typical practice.  Misclassification rates significantly decreased (P<0.001) with all second opinion strategies except for the strategy limiting second opinions only to cases of invasive cancer. The overall misclassification rate decreased from 24.7% to 18.1% when all cases received second opinions (P<0.001). Obtaining both first and second opinions from pathologists with a high volume (≥10 breast biopsy specimens weekly) resulted in the lowest misclassification rate in this test set (14.3%, 95% confidence interval 10.9% to 18.0%). Obtaining second opinions only for cases with initial interpretations of atypia, DCIS, or invasive

Opinions on Fresh Produce Food Safety and Quality Standards by Fresh Produce Supply Chain Experts from the Global South and North.

PubMed

Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Van Boxstael, Sigrid; Nanyunja, Jessica; Jordaan, Danie; Luning, Pieternel; Uyttendaele, Mieke

2015-10-01

This study describes the results of an on-line survey of fresh produce supply chain experts who work with producers from the Global North (n = 41, 20 countries) and the Global South (n = 63, 29 countries). They expressed their opinion using 1 to 5 Likert scales on several items related to four types of food safety and quality standards and legislation: Codex Alimentarius standards, European Union legislation, national legislation, and private standards. The results reflect the different circumstances under which the Southern and Northern producers operate in relation to the local organization, regulation, and support of the sector; but they also indicate similar challenges, in particular, the challenge of private standards, which were perceived to demand a higher implementation effort than the other three types of standards. Private standards were also strongly perceived to exclude Southern and Northern small- and medium-scale producers from high-value markets, whereas European Union legislation was perceived to strongly exclude, in particular, small- and medium-scale Southern producers. The results further highlight concerns about costly control measures and third-party certification that are required by downstream buyers but that are mostly paid for by upstream suppliers. Food standards are seen in their dual role as a catalyst for implementation of structured food safety management systems on the one hand and as a nontariff barrier to trade on the other hand. The results of the survey also pointed up the advantages of enforcing food safety and food quality standards in terms of knowledge spillover to noncertified activities, increased revenues, and improved food safety of delivered produce. Survey results highlight the importance of technical assistance and support of producers by governments and producer cooperatives or trade associations in the implementation and certification of food standards, along with increased awareness of and training of individuals in

Patient engagement in the process of planning and designing outpatient care improvements at the Veterans Administration Health-care System: findings from an online expert panel.

PubMed

Khodyakov, Dmitry; Stockdale, Susan E; Smith, Nina; Booth, Marika; Altman, Lisa; Rubenstein, Lisa V

2017-02-01

There is a strong interest in the Veterans Administration (VA) Health-care System in promoting patient engagement to improve patient care. We solicited expert opinion using an online expert panel system with a modified Delphi structure called ExpertLens ™ . Experts reviewed, rated and discussed eight scenarios, representing four patient engagement roles in designing and improving VA outpatient care (consultant, implementation advisor, equal stakeholder and lead stakeholder) and two VA levels (local and regional). Rating criteria included desirability, feasibility, patient ability, physician/staff acceptance and impact on patient-centredness and care quality. Data were analysed using the RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method for determining consensus. Experts rated consulting with patients at the local level as the most desirable and feasible patient engagement approach. Engagement at the local level was considered more desirable than engagement at the regional level. Being an equal stakeholder at the local level received the highest ratings on the patient-centredness and health-care quality criteria. Our findings illustrate expert opinion about different approaches to patient engagement and highlight the benefits and challenges posed by each. Although experts rated local consultations with patients on an as-needed basis as most desirable and feasible, they rated being an equal stakeholder at the local level as having the highest potential impact on patient-centredness and care quality. This result highlights a perceived discrepancy between what is most desirable and what is potentially most effective, but suggests that routine local engagement of patients as equal stakeholders may be a desirable first step for promoting high-quality, patient-centred care. © 2016 The Authors. Health Expectations Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

[Medical expert consensus in AH on the clinical use of triple fixed-dose antihypertensive therapy in Spain].

PubMed

Mazón, P; Galve, E; Gómez, J; Gorostidi, M; Górriz, J L; Mediavilla, J D

The opinion of experts (different specialties) on the triple fixed-dose antihypertensive therapy in clinical practice may differ. Online questionnaire with controversial aspects of the triple therapy answered by panel of experts in hypertension (HT) using two-round modified Delphi method. The questionnaire was completed by 158 experts: Internal Medicine (49), Nephrology (26), Cardiology (83). Consensus was reached (agreement) on 27/45 items (60%); 7 items showed differences statistically significant. Consensus was reached regarding: Predictive factors in the need for combination therapy and its efficacy vs. increasing the dose of a pretreatment, and advantage of triple therapy (prescription/adherence/cost/pressure control) vs. free combination. This consensus provides an overview of the clinical use of triple therapy in moderate-severe and resistant/difficult to control HT. Copyright © 2016 SEH-LELHA. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Treating an Established Episode of Delirium in Palliative Care: Expert Opinion and Review of the Current Evidence Base With Recommendations for Future Development

PubMed Central

Pereira, José L.; Davis, Daniel H.J.; Currow, David C.; Meagher, David; Rabheru, Kiran; Wright, David; Bruera, Eduardo; Hartwick, Michael; Gagnon, Pierre R.; Gagnon, Bruno; Breitbart, William; Regnier, Laura; Lawlor, Peter G.

2014-01-01

Context Delirium is a highly prevalent complication in patients in palliative care settings, especially in the end-of-life context. Objectives To review the current evidence base for treating episodes of delirium in palliative care settings and propose a framework for future development. Methods We combined multidisciplinary input from delirium researchers and other purposely selected stakeholders at an international delirium study planning meeting. This was supplemented by a literature search of multiple databases and relevant reference lists to identify studies regarding therapeutic interventions for delirium. Results The context of delirium management in palliative care is highly variable. The standard management of a delirium episode includes the investigation of precipitating and aggravating factors followed by symptomatic treatment with drug therapy. However, the intensity of this management depends on illness trajectory and goals of care in addition to the local availability of both investigative modalities and therapeutic interventions. Pharmacologically, haloperidol remains the practice standard by consensus for symptomatic control. Dosing schedules are derived from expert opinion and various clinical practice guidelines as evidence-based data from palliative care settings are limited. The commonly used pharmacologic interventions for delirium in this population warrant evaluation in clinical trials to examine dosing and titration regimens, different routes of administration, and safety and efficacy compared with placebo. Conclusion Delirium treatment is multidimensional and includes the identification of precipitating and aggravating factors. For symptomatic management, haloperidol remains the practice standard. Further high-quality collaborative research investigating the appropriate treatment of this complex syndrome is needed. PMID:24480529

Opinions and knowledge about climate change science in high school students.

PubMed

Harker-Schuch, Inez; Bugge-Henriksen, Christian

2013-10-01

This study investigates the influence of knowledge on opinions about climate change in the emerging adults' age group (16-17 years). Furthermore, the effects of a lecture in climate change science on knowledge and opinions were assessed. A survey was conducted in Austria and Denmark on 188 students in national and international schools before and after a lecture in climate change science. The results show that knowledge about climate change science significantly affects opinions about climate change. Students with a higher number of correct answers are more likely to have the opinion that humans are causing climate change and that both individuals and governments are responsible for addressing climate change. The lecture in climate change science significantly improved knowledge development but did not affect opinions. Knowledge was improved by 11 % after the lecture. However, the percentage of correct answers was still below 60 % indicating an urgent need for improving climate change science education.

Iranian Expert Opinion about Necessary Criteria for Hospitals Management Performance Assessments

PubMed Central

Dadgar, Elham; Janati, Ali; Tabrizi, Jafar Sadegh; Asghari-Jafarabadi, Mohammad; Barati, Omid

2012-01-01

Background: Managers in the hospital should have enough managerial skill to be coordinated with the complex environment. Defining a competency framework assessment for hospital man-agement will help to establish core competencies for hospital managers. The aim of this study was to develop concrete and suitable performance assessment criteria using expert's view. Methods: In this qualitative study in total, 20 professionals participated in the interview and Fo¬cus Group Discussions (FGD). Two of informants were interviewed and 18 professionals par¬ticipants in three focus group discussions. Discussions and interviews were well planned, the FGD environments were suitable and after interviews completion the notes were checked with participant for completeness. Thematic analysis method was used for the analysis of qualitative data. Results: Findings from 3 FGDs and 2 semi structured interviews done with 20 professionals were categorized accordance to themes. The findings were classified in 7 major and 41 sub themes. The major themes include competency related to planning, organization and staff per-formance management, leadership, information management, and clinical governance and per-formance indicators. Conclusion: All participants had hospital administration experience; so their explanation impor¬tant in identifying the criteria and developing hospital managers’ performance assessment tool. In addition to professional perspectives and studies done in other countries, in order to design this kind of tools, it is necessary to adopt the obtained findings to the local hospital conditions. PMID:24688938

Expert opinions on good practice in evaluation of health promotion and primary prevention measures related to children and adolescents in Germany.

PubMed

Korber, Katharina; Becker, Christian

2017-10-02

Determining what constitutes "good practice" in the measurement of the costs and effects of health promotion and disease prevention measures is of particular importance. The aim of this paper was to gather expert knowledge on (economic) evaluations of health promotion and prevention measures for children and adolescents, especially on the practical importance, the determinants of project success, meaningful parameters for evaluations, and supporting factors, but also on problems in their implementation. This information is targeted at people responsible for the development of primary prevention or health promotion programs. Partially structured open interviews were conducted by two interviewers and transcribed, paraphrased, and summarized for further use. Eight experts took part in the interviews. The interviewed experts saw evaluation as a useful tool to establish the effects of prevention programs, to inform program improvement and further development, and to provide arguments to decision making. The respondents' thought that determinants of a program's success were effectiveness with evidence of causality, cost benefit relation, target-group reach and sustainability. It was considered important that hard and soft factors were included in an evaluation; costs were mentioned only by one expert. According to the experts, obstacles to evaluation were lacking resources, additional labor requirements, and the evaluators' unfamiliarity with a program's contents. It was recommended to consider evaluation design before a program is launched, to co-operate with people involved in a program and to make use of existing structures. While in in this study only a partial view of expert knowledge is represented, it could show important points to consider when developing evaluations of prevention programs. By considering these points, researchers could further advance towards a more comprehensive approach of evaluation targeting measures in children and adolescents.

Lymphedema and employability - Review and results of a survey of Austrian experts.

PubMed

Neubauer, Markus; Schoberwalter, Dieter; Cenik, Fadime; Keilani, Mohammad; Crevenna, Richard

2017-03-01

Literature about lymphedema and its influence on the ability to work and employability is limited. The aim of the present study was to investigate the opinion of Austrian experts on factors influencing the ability to work and employability in patients suffering from lymphedema. A self-administered questionnaire consisting of 6 questions was sent to 12 Austrian lymphedema experts with 6 different specializations from May to August 2016. These experts were asked about suitable and unsuitable professions, the possible influence of lymphedema on the ability to work and employability as well as about existing and additional measures to improve the return to work. The reply rate was 100% (12 out of 12). All experts agreed that lymphedema can restrict the ability to work and employability. The leading reason for limited ability to work and employability was restricted mobility or function of the affected limb along with time-consuming therapeutic modalities, pain and psychological stress. The most suitable job named was teacher and the most unsuitable job named was cook. As easements for return to work, early rehabilitation, self-management, coping strategies, patient education, employer's goodwill and employer's cooperation were reported. Furthermore, experts stressed the need for an adjustment of the legal framework as well as low-barrier and more therapy offers. Adjusted work demands seem to be of greater importance to support the ability to work and employability than recommendations for specific job profiles alone. Experts suggest an adjustment of the legal framework for affected patients, claiming a right for early rehabilitation as well as for life-long therapy. Even though some clinically useful conclusions may be drawn from this article, further research in the field is warranted.

The need for public education on HPV and cervical cancer prevention in Asia. Opinions of experts at the AOGIN conference.

PubMed

Garland, S; Park, S N; Ngan, H Y S; Frazer, I; Tay, E H; Chen, C J; Bhatla, N; Pitts, M; Shin, H R; Konno, R; Smith, J; Pagliusi, S; Park, J S

2008-10-09

Asia accounts for more than half of all cases of cervical cancer registered globally and improving prevention is urgently needed. A range of tools and strategies is now available to effectively prevent this disease, including two new prophylactic HPV vaccines approved and recommended for adolescents and young women. However, without communication these tools may have little impact on disease burden. The conferences of the Asia Oceania Research Organisation in Genital Infection and Neoplasia (AOGIN) bring together clinicians and scientists whose work is related to genital infections, particularly HPV, cervical dysplasia and neoplasia, as well as other anogenital cancers, with the aim of improving communication on prevention through human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and screening in Asian countries. The scope of this year's AOGIN conference was to extend education to include health workers, family doctors, paediatricians, governmental health agencies, and the general public through patients' testimonials that can reach out to women raising awareness of this silent disease. Community based initiatives and awareness campaigns were also reported, and can empower the people to engage in a dialog with local governments towards prioritization of cancer prevention programs, achieving more for the public than isolated actions. Parents and teachers are encouraged to communicate about these issues within families and schools. Evidence was discussed that males can participate in cervical cancer control as well, and prevention programs involving men should not be neglected as they may reduce genital disease burden in women. Opinion leaders proposed prevention measures to be considered for governmental decisions. While each country develops a locally appropriate policy for cervical cancer control there is a need to revise these programs regularly, as knowledge increases in response to public need, as well as to gather evidence about disease burden and the effectiveness of

Substitution of Assisted Living Services by Assistive Technology - Experts Opinions and Technical Feasibility.

PubMed

Schwartze, Jonas; Prekazi, Arianit; Schrom, Harald; Marschollek, Michael

2017-01-01

Ambient assisted living (AAL) may support ageing in place but is primarily driven by technology. The aim of this work is, to identifying reasons to move into assisted living institutions, their range of service and possible substitutability. We did semi-structured interviews with five experts from assisted living institutions and used results to design and implement assistive technologies in an AAL environment using BASIS, a cross domain bus system for smart buildings. Reasons for moving to assisted living institutions are expected benefits for chronic health problems, safety, social isolation and carefree living. We implemented six application systems for inactivity monitoring, stove shutdown, air quality monitoring, medication and appointment reminders, detection of unwanted situations before leaving and optical ringing of the doorbell. Substitution of selected assisted living services is feasible and has potential to delay necessity to move into assisted living institution if complement social services are installed.

Competing opinion diffusion on social networks.

PubMed

Hu, Haibo

2017-11-01

Opinion competition is a common phenomenon in real life, such as with opinions on controversial issues or political candidates; however, modelling this competition remains largely unexplored. To bridge this gap, we propose a model of competing opinion diffusion on social networks taking into account degree-dependent fitness or persuasiveness. We study the combined influence of social networks, individual fitnesses and attributes, as well as mass media on people's opinions, and find that both social networks and mass media act as amplifiers in opinion diffusion, the amplifying effect of which can be quantitatively characterized. We analytically obtain the probability that each opinion will ultimately pervade the whole society when there are no committed people in networks, and the final proportion of each opinion at the steady state when there are committed people in networks. The results of numerical simulations show good agreement with those obtained through an analytical approach. This study provides insight into the collective influence of individual attributes, local social networks and global media on opinion diffusion, and contributes to a comprehensive understanding of competing diffusion behaviours in the real world.

Opinion competition dynamics on multiplex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amato, R.; Kouvaris, N. E.; San Miguel, M.; Díaz-Guilera, A.

2017-12-01

Multilayer and multiplex networks represent a good proxy for the description of social phenomena where social structure is important and can have different origins. Here, we propose a model of opinion competition where individuals are organized according to two different structures in two layers. Agents exchange opinions according to the Abrams-Strogatz model in each layer separately and opinions can be copied across layers by the same individual. In each layer a different opinion is dominant, so each layer has a different absorbing state. Consensus in one opinion is not the only possible stable solution because of the interaction between the two layers. A new mean field solution has been found where both opinions coexist. In a finite system there is a long transient time for the dynamical coexistence of both opinions. However, the system ends in a consensus state due to finite size effects. We analyze sparse topologies in the two layers and the existence of positive correlations between them, which enables the coexistence of inter-layer groups of agents sharing the same opinion.

A condition metric for Eucalyptus woodland derived from expert evaluations.

PubMed

Sinclair, Steve J; Bruce, Matthew J; Griffioen, Peter; Dodd, Amanda; White, Matthew D

2018-02-01

The evaluation of ecosystem quality is important for land-management and land-use planning. Evaluation is unavoidably subjective, and robust metrics must be based on consensus and the structured use of observations. We devised a transparent and repeatable process for building and testing ecosystem metrics based on expert data. We gathered quantitative evaluation data on the quality of hypothetical grassy woodland sites from experts. We used these data to train a model (an ensemble of 30 bagged regression trees) capable of predicting the perceived quality of similar hypothetical woodlands based on a set of 13 site variables as inputs (e.g., cover of shrubs, richness of native forbs). These variables can be measured at any site and the model implemented in a spreadsheet as a metric of woodland quality. We also investigated the number of experts required to produce an opinion data set sufficient for the construction of a metric. The model produced evaluations similar to those provided by experts, as shown by assessing the model's quality scores of expert-evaluated test sites not used to train the model. We applied the metric to 13 woodland conservation reserves and asked managers of these sites to independently evaluate their quality. To assess metric performance, we compared the model's evaluation of site quality with the managers' evaluations through multidimensional scaling. The metric performed relatively well, plotting close to the center of the space defined by the evaluators. Given the method provides data-driven consensus and repeatability, which no single human evaluator can provide, we suggest it is a valuable tool for evaluating ecosystem quality in real-world contexts. We believe our approach is applicable to any ecosystem. © 2017 State of Victoria.

Non-consensus Opinion Models on Complex Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Qian; Braunstein, Lidia A.; Wang, Huijuan; Shao, Jia; Stanley, H. Eugene; Havlin, Shlomo

2013-04-01

Social dynamic opinion models have been widely studied to understand how interactions among individuals cause opinions to evolve. Most opinion models that utilize spin interaction models usually produce a consensus steady state in which only one opinion exists. Because in reality different opinions usually coexist, we focus on non-consensus opinion models in which above a certain threshold two opinions coexist in a stable relationship. We revisit and extend the non-consensus opinion (NCO) model introduced by Shao et al. (Phys. Rev. Lett. 103:01870, 2009). The NCO model in random networks displays a second order phase transition that belongs to regular mean field percolation and is characterized by the appearance (above a certain threshold) of a large spanning cluster of the minority opinion. We generalize the NCO model by adding a weight factor W to each individual's original opinion when determining their future opinion (NCO W model). We find that as W increases the minority opinion holders tend to form stable clusters with a smaller initial minority fraction than in the NCO model. We also revisit another non-consensus opinion model based on the NCO model, the inflexible contrarian opinion (ICO) model (Li et al. in Phys. Rev. E 84:066101, 2011), which introduces inflexible contrarians to model the competition between two opinions in a steady state. Inflexible contrarians are individuals that never change their original opinion but may influence the opinions of others. To place the inflexible contrarians in the ICO model we use two different strategies, random placement and one in which high-degree nodes are targeted. The inflexible contrarians effectively decrease the size of the largest rival-opinion cluster in both strategies, but the effect is more pronounced under the targeted method. All of the above models have previously been explored in terms of a single network, but human communities are usually interconnected, not isolated. Because opinions propagate not

The adversarial court system and the expert medical witness: 'The truth the whole truth and nothing but the truth?'.

PubMed

Ryan, Matthew

2003-06-01

This discussion aims to provide the occasional medical expert witness with background knowledge of the adversarial court system and the role of the medical expert witness within it. The parallel evolution of the adversarial and inquisitorial legal systems has been more out of tradition rather than any systematic review of the effectiveness of one system or the other. Both legal systems have their merits and limitations. Witnesses within the adversarial system are required to present evidence in a structured and highly stylized format consisting of 'evidence in chief' followed by 'cross-examination'. This format is an attempt to exclude unreliable evidence. The medical witness is an 'expert' by means of specialized knowledge not possessed by the general public. This distinction allows the expert medical witness to offer his or her opinion as evidence. There remain several limitations to the expert's evidence and these relate to common knowledge, field of expertise and the 'ultimate issue'. The current practice of selection of expert medical witnesses is seriously flawed with several pressures operating to maximise bias and inaccurate testimony. Doctors should not only anticipate change in this area they should lead reform in this area.

The double crush syndrome revisited--a Delphi study to reveal current expert views on mechanisms underlying dual nerve disorders.

PubMed

Schmid, Annina B; Coppieters, Michel W

2011-12-01

A high prevalence of dual nerve disorders is frequently reported. How a secondary nerve disorder may develop following a primary nerve disorder remains largely unknown. Although still frequently cited, most explanatory theories were formulated many years ago. Considering recent advances in neuroscience, it is uncertain whether these theories still reflect current expert opinion. A Delphi study was conducted to update views on potential mechanisms underlying dual nerve disorders. In three rounds, seventeen international experts in the field of peripheral nerve disorders were asked to list possible mechanisms and rate their plausibility. Mechanisms with a median plausibility rating of ≥7 out of 10 were considered highly plausible. The experts identified fourteen mechanisms associated with a first nerve disorder that may predispose to the development of another nerve disorder. Of these fourteen mechanisms, nine have not previously been linked to double crush. Four mechanisms were considered highly plausible (impaired axonal transport, ion channel up or downregulation, inflammation in the dorsal root ganglia and neuroma-in-continuity). Eight additional mechanisms were listed which are not triggered by a primary nerve disorder, but may render the nervous system more vulnerable to multiple nerve disorders, such as systemic diseases and neurotoxic medication. Even though many mechanisms were classified as plausible or highly plausible, overall plausibility ratings varied widely. Experts indicated that a wide range of mechanisms has to be considered to better understand dual nerve disorders. Previously listed theories cannot be discarded, but may be insufficient to explain the high prevalence of dual nerve disorders. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Expert Systems In Medical Studies - A New Twist

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slagle, James R.; Long, John M.; Wick, Michael R.; Matts, John P.; Leon, Arthur S.

1986-03-01

The use of experts to evaluate large amounts of trial data results in increasingly expensive and time consuming research. We are investigating the role expert systems can play in reducing the time and expense of research projects. Current methods in large clinical studies for evaluating data are often crude and superficial. We have developed, for a large clinical trial, an expert system for analysis of treadmill exercise ECG test results. In the cases we are studying, a patient is given a treadmill exercise ECG test once a year for five years. Pairs of these exercise tests are then evaluated by cardiologists to determine the condition of the patient's heart. The results of our system show great promise for the use of expert systems in reducing the time and expense of large clinical trials.

When do we believe experts? The power of the unorthodox view.

PubMed

Alison, Laurence; Almond, Louise; Christiansen, Paul; Waring, Sara; Power, Nicola; Villejoubert, Gaëlle

2012-01-01

This paper examines the extent to which orthodoxy (degree of typicality) and congruence (degree of similarity with own opinion) mediate the influence of expert advice on decision makers' judgments. Overall, 227 members of the public and 60 police officers completed an online questionnaire involving an investigation into a child sex offence. Participants were asked to first (i) formulate their own "profile" of a likely offender then (ii) estimate the guilt of two presented suspect descriptions (orthodox vs. unorthodox), and, following the presentation of an "expert's" profile that matched either the orthodox or the unorthodox suspect, (iii) re-evaluate their guilt judgments of the two suspects based on this new advice. Finally, (iv) the perceived similarity (congruence) between the participants' own and the expert profile was assessed. Results revealed two key findings. First, expert profiles that matched a suspect's description elevated perceptions of guilt in that suspect, whilst also, simultaneously, very significantly decreasing the perception of guilt of the alternative suspect. This suggests a powerful rejection and downward revision of the other suspect. Second, perceived similarity of the profile (to one's own profile) was only a significant factor in increasing guilt judgments when assigning guilt to the unorthodox (as opposed to orthodox) suspect. Comparisons of lay judgments with those of police officers revealed few significant differences in effects. The finding that advice is most influential when unorthodox and incongruent suggests that decision makers are more likely to reevaluate judgments when expert advice contributes novel information that contradicts their beliefs. The practical implications of these findings are discussed for profilers, police, and decision research in general. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Recurrent issues in efforts to prevent homicidal youth violence in schools: expert opinions.

PubMed

Dill, Karen E; Redding, Richard E; Smith, Peter K; Surette, Ray; Cornell, Dewey G

2011-01-01

Developmental research on social influences on adolescents can guide practices aimed to prevent homicidal youth violence. School shootings have repeatedly raised questions about the contributory role of bullying and entertainment violence, how news media publicity might produce copycat crimes, and whether stiffer criminal sanctions might have a deterrent effect. This article presents the thoughts and recommendations of a group of experts on these topics summarizing the current knowledge base. In brief, bullying reduction programs may be a useful early prevention effort. Television and video games with violent themes can encourage aggressive behavior, but these media can be used to teach more prosocial behavior as well. The potential copycat effects of highly publicized crimes might be diminished with more restrained reporting, although more research is needed. Finally, there is substantial evidence that increased criminal sanctions for youthful offenders have not had a deterrent effect. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc., A Wiley Company.

Competing opinion diffusion on social networks

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Opinion competition is a common phenomenon in real life, such as with opinions on controversial issues or political candidates; however, modelling this competition remains largely unexplored. To bridge this gap, we propose a model of competing opinion diffusion on social networks taking into account degree-dependent fitness or persuasiveness. We study the combined influence of social networks, individual fitnesses and attributes, as well as mass media on people’s opinions, and find that both social networks and mass media act as amplifiers in opinion diffusion, the amplifying effect of which can be quantitatively characterized. We analytically obtain the probability that each opinion will ultimately pervade the whole society when there are no committed people in networks, and the final proportion of each opinion at the steady state when there are committed people in networks. The results of numerical simulations show good agreement with those obtained through an analytical approach. This study provides insight into the collective influence of individual attributes, local social networks and global media on opinion diffusion, and contributes to a comprehensive understanding of competing diffusion behaviours in the real world. PMID:29291101

The Desired Learning Outcomes of School-Based Nutrition/Physical Activity Health Education: A Health Literacy Constructed Delphi Survey of Finnish Experts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ormshaw, Michael James; Kokko, Sami Petteri; Villberg, Jari; Kannas, Lasse

2016-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to utilise the collective opinion of a group of Finnish experts to identify the most important learning outcomes of secondary-level school-based health education, in the specific domains of physical activity and nutrition. Design/ Methodology/ Approach: The study uses a Delphi survey technique to collect the…

Neuropsychologist Experts and Civil Capacity Evaluations: Representative Cases.

PubMed

Kaufmann, Paul M

2016-09-01

Clinical neuropsychologists accept more forensic referrals now and spend more time in forensic consulting than ever before. Recent surveys show weekly hours devoted to forensic consulting increased 97% in the past decade. During the same time period, the number of board certified neuropsychologists more than doubled. Under recently published Specialty Guidelines for Forensic Psychology, clinical neuropsychologists practice forensic psychology when applying scientific, technical, or specialized knowledge of neuropsychology to the law to assist in addressing legal, contractual, or administrative matters. Among those increasingly varied forensic referrals, clinical neuropsychologists are conducting more civil competency and capacity evaluations. Representative cases from three jurisdictions demonstrate how neuropsychologists provide expertize in matters involving testamentary capacity, contractual capacity, business judgments, and job capacity. Case presentations illustrate some of the strengths and weaknesses of neuropsychological evaluation of civil capacities. The article concludes with a "battle of experts" case involving five neuropsychologists with opposing opinions recently heard in a Federal Appellate court. Implications for neuropschology training and forensic competencies are considered. In offering quality services to the legal profession, neuropsychologists support the truth-seeking function of the judiciary, promote justice, protect the profession, and serve public policy. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

EFP Delphi study on the trends in Periodontology and Periodontics in Europe for the year 2025.

PubMed

Madianos, Phoebus; Papaioannou, William; Herrera, David; Sanz, Mariano; Baeumer, Amelie; Bogren, Anna; Bouchard, Philippe; Chomyszyn-Gajewska, Maria; Demirel, Korkud; Gaspersic, Rok; Giurgiu, Marina; Graziani, Filippo; Jepsen, Karin; Jepsen, Sören; O Brien, Tiernan; Polyzois, Ioannis; Preshaw, Philip M; Rakic, Mia; Reners, Michele; Rincic, Nives; Stavropoulos, Andreas; Sütcü, Serdar; Verner, Christian; Llodra, Juan Carlos

2016-06-01

The aim was to assess the potential trends in Periodontology and Periodontics in Europe that might be anticipated by the year 2025, using the Delphi method. The expert opinion of 120 experts was sought through the use of an open-ended questionnaire, developed by an advisory group, containing 40 questions concerning the various trends in periodontology. The experts (113 responders) expect a stabilization of the prevalence of periodontitis, both for the chronic as well as the aggressive cases, but an increase in implant-related diseases up to the year 2025. Concurrently, the importance of implants is seen to be increasing. They foresee an increased demand for postgraduate periodontology and implantology training. This is mirrored in an increase in publications for implant dentistry and increase in demand and need for training. Concerning the patients, better-informed individuals seeking more routine check-ups are expected. A continued need for specialized periodontists, but also well trained dental practitioners is foreseen for next decade in Europe. Apart from periodontology they will be increasingly exposed to and trained in implant dentistry. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Identification and management of comorbidity in psoriatic arthritis: evidence- and expert-based recommendations from a multidisciplinary panel from Spain.

PubMed

Torre-Alonso, Juan Carlos; Carmona, Loreto; Moreno, Mireia; Galíndez, Eva; Babío, Jesús; Zarco, Pedro; Linares, Luis; Collantes-Estevez, Eduardo; Barrial, Manuel Fernández; Hermosa, Juan Carlos; Coto, Pablo; Suárez, Carmen; Almodóvar, Raquel; Luelmo, Jesús; Castañeda, Santos; Gratacós, Jordi

2017-08-01

The objective is to establish recommendations, based on evidence and expert opinion, for the identification and management of comorbidities in patients with psoriatic arthritis (PsA). The following techniques were applied: discussion group, systematic review, and Delphi survey for agreement. A panel of professionals from four specialties defined the users, the sections of the document, possible recommendations, and what systematic reviews should be performed. A second discussion was held with the results of the systematic reviews. Recommendations were formulated in the second meeting and voted online from 1 (total disagreement) to 10 (total agreement). Agreement was considered if at least 70% voted ≥7. The level of evidence and grade of recommendation were assigned using the Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine guidance. The full document was critically appraised by the experts, and the project was supervised at all times by a methodologist. In a final step, the document was reviewed and commented by a patient and a health management specialist. Fourteen recommendations were produced, together with a checklist to facilitate the implementation. The items with the largest support from evidence were those related to cardiovascular disease and risk factors. The panel recommends paying special attention to obesity, smoking, and alcohol consumption, as they are all modifiable factors with an impact on treatment response or complications of PsA. Psychological and organizational aspects were also deemed important. We herein suggest practical recommendations for the management of comorbidities in PsA based on evidence and expert opinion.

Mother Love: Natural Mothering, Birth to Three Years.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bricklin, Alice G.

This book discusses aspects of natural parenthood based largely on the author's own experiences, with references to other supportive studies and expert opinions. Topics covered include emotional changes brought on by pregnancy; home type delivery; family sleeping quarters and baby-led nursing. Chapters are (1) On Becoming a Mother; (2) Conscious,…

Experts reviews of the multidisciplinary consensus conference colon and rectal cancer 2012: science, opinions and experiences from the experts of surgery.

PubMed

van de Velde, C J H; Boelens, P G; Tanis, P J; Espin, E; Mroczkowski, P; Naredi, P; Pahlman, L; Ortiz, H; Rutten, H J; Breugom, A J; Smith, J J; Wibe, A; Wiggers, T; Valentini, V

2014-04-01

The first multidisciplinary consensus conference on colon and rectal cancer was held in December 2012, achieving a majority of consensus for diagnostic and treatment decisions using the Delphi Method. This article will give a critical appraisal of the topics discussed during the meeting and in the consensus document by well-known leaders in surgery that were involved in this multidisciplinary consensus process. Scientific evidence, experience and opinions are collected to support multidisciplinary teams (MDT) with arguments for medical decision-making in diagnosis, staging and treatment strategies for patients with colon or rectal cancer. Surgery is the cornerstone of curative treatment for colon and rectal cancer. Standardizing treatment is an effective instrument to improve outcome of multidisciplinary cancer care for patients with colon and rectal cancer. In this article, a review of the following focuses; Perioperative care, age and colorectal surgery, obstructive colorectal cancer, stenting, surgical anatomical considerations, total mesorectal excision (TME) surgery and training, surgical considerations for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) and local recurrent rectal cancer (LRRC), surgery in stage IV colorectal cancer, definitions of quality of surgery, transanal endoscopic microsurgery (TEM), laparoscopic colon and rectal surgery, preoperative radiotherapy and chemoradiotherapy, and how about functional outcome after surgery? Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adaptation and Validation of the Brief Sexual Opinion Survey (SOS) in a Colombian Sample and Factorial Equivalence with the Spanish Version

PubMed Central

Sierra, Juan Carlos; Soler, Franklin

2016-01-01

Attitudes toward sexuality are a key variable for sexual health. It is really important for psychology and education to have adapted and validated questionnaires to evaluate these attitudes. Therefore, the objective of this research was to adapt, validate and calculate the equivalence of the Colombia Sexual Opinion Survey as compared to the same survey from Spain. To this end, a total of eight experts were consulted and 1,167 subjects from Colombia and Spain answered the Sexual Opinion Survey, the Sexual Assertiveness Scale, the Massachusetts General Hospital-Sexual Functioning Questionnaire, and the Sexuality Scale. The evaluation was conducted by online and the results show adequate qualitative and quantitative properties of the items, with adequate reliability and external validity and compliance with the strong invariance between the two countries. Consequently, the Colombia Sexual Opinion Survey is a valid and reliable scale and its scores can be compared with the ones from the Spain survey, with minimum bias. PMID:27627114

Adaptation and Validation of the Brief Sexual Opinion Survey (SOS) in a Colombian Sample and Factorial Equivalence with the Spanish Version.

PubMed

Vallejo-Medina, Pablo; Marchal-Bertrand, Laurent; Gómez-Lugo, Mayra; Espada, José Pedro; Sierra, Juan Carlos; Soler, Franklin; Morales, Alexandra

2016-01-01

Attitudes toward sexuality are a key variable for sexual health. It is really important for psychology and education to have adapted and validated questionnaires to evaluate these attitudes. Therefore, the objective of this research was to adapt, validate and calculate the equivalence of the Colombia Sexual Opinion Survey as compared to the same survey from Spain. To this end, a total of eight experts were consulted and 1,167 subjects from Colombia and Spain answered the Sexual Opinion Survey, the Sexual Assertiveness Scale, the Massachusetts General Hospital-Sexual Functioning Questionnaire, and the Sexuality Scale. The evaluation was conducted by online and the results show adequate qualitative and quantitative properties of the items, with adequate reliability and external validity and compliance with the strong invariance between the two countries. Consequently, the Colombia Sexual Opinion Survey is a valid and reliable scale and its scores can be compared with the ones from the Spain survey, with minimum bias.

NESSUS/EXPERT - An expert system for probabilistic structural analysis methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Millwater, H.; Palmer, K.; Fink, P.

1988-01-01

An expert system (NESSUS/EXPERT) is presented which provides assistance in using probabilistic structural analysis methods. NESSUS/EXPERT is an interactive menu-driven expert system that provides information to assist in the use of the probabilistic finite element code NESSUS/FEM and the fast probability integrator. NESSUS/EXPERT was developed with a combination of FORTRAN and CLIPS, a C language expert system tool, to exploit the strengths of each language.

Education through Fiction: Acquiring Opinion-Forming Skills in the Context of Genomics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Knippels, Marie-Christine P. J.; Severiens, Sabine E.; Klop, Tanja

2009-01-01

The present study examined the outcomes of a newly designed four-lesson science module on opinion-forming in the context of genomics in upper secondary education. The lesson plan aims to foster 16-year-old students' opinion-forming skills in the context of genomics and to test the effect of the use of fiction in the module. The basic hypothesis…

Voices from the Field: 30 Expert Opinions on America 2000, The Bush Administration Strategy To "Reinvent" America's Schools.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Institute for Educational Leadership, Washington, DC.

"America 2000," President Bush's national strategy for "Reinventing America's Schools" is evaluated by 30 invited experts in the following papers: "Bottom-up Reform From the Top Down" (John E. Chubb); "Would Choice + Competition Yield Quality Education?" (Richard F. Elmore); "The Federal Education Role…

Breast Imaging Second Opinions Impact Surgical Management.

PubMed

Spivey, Tara Lynn; Carlson, Kjirsten Ayn; Janssen, Imke; Witt, Thomas R; Jokich, Peter; Madrigrano, Andrea

2015-07-01

Breast surgeons often see women for second opinions for abnormalities found on breast imaging. For second opinions, these images are submitted for review and interpretation by dedicated breast imagers. This study evaluated the conformity of results among interpretation of imaging submitted from outside hospitals both from tertiary care centers, as well as community programs, in an attempt to evaluate the utility of this practice for the sake of clinical management and resource utilization. A retrospective chart review was conducted on all breast patients that submitted outside imaging films for the years 2011 to 2013 at Rush University Medical Center (RUMC). The radiologic diagnosis and each patient's proposed management plan was collected and evaluated for concordance between the outside institutions and RUMC. A total of 380 patients who presented for second opinions with an interpretation of outside exams were evaluated. In 47.4 % [95 % confidence interval (CI) 42.4-52.4] of cases there was distinct variance in radiologic impression. For 53.5 % (95 % CI 48.4-58.5) of patients, there was a change in recommended management plan, which included recommendations for either additional imaging or need for additional biopsy. In total, this changed the overall surgical management in 27.1 % (95 % CI 22.8-31.9) of cases. In six patients, the reinterpretation of outside imaging detected new malignancies not previously identified. Overall, 83.7 % (95 % CI 79.7-87.1) of patients who submitted imaging from outside institutions chose to complete the remainder of their treatment at RUMC. The practice of second opinion review changed overall definitive management at our specialty center in more than one in four cases. In addition, the review identified six previously unrecognized malignancies. Given this data, the practice of second opinions and interpretation of outside exams should continue despite the additional resources required.

Rank aggregation of local expert knowledge for conservation planning of the critically endangered saola.

PubMed

Wilkinson, Nicholas M; Van Duc, Luong

2017-06-01

There has been much recent interest in using local knowledge and expert opinion for conservation planning, particularly for hard-to-detect species. Although it is possible to ask for direct estimation of quantities such as population size, relative abundance is easier to estimate. However, an expert's knowledge is often geographically restricted relative to the area of interest. Combining (or aggregating) experts' assessments of relative abundance is difficult when each expert only knows a part of the area of interest. We used Google's PageRank algorithm to aggregate ranked abundance scores elicited from local experts through a rapid rural-appraisal method. We applied this technique to conservation planning for the saola (Pseudoryx nghetinhensis), a poorly known bovid. Near a priority landscape for the species, composed of 3 contiguous protected areas, we asked groups of local people to indicate relative abundances of saola and other species by placing beans on community maps. For each village, we used this information to rank areas within the knowledge area of that village for saola abundance. We used simulations to compare alternative methods to aggregate the rankings from the different villages. The best-performing method was then used to produce a single map of relative abundance across the entire landscape, an area larger than that known to any one village. This map has informed prioritization of surveys and conservation action in the continued absence of direct information about the saola. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

5 CFR 2638.313 - Agency opinions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

....313 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF GOVERNMENT ETHICS GOVERNMENT ETHICS OFFICE OF GOVERNMENT ETHICS AND EXECUTIVE AGENCY ETHICS PROGRAM RESPONSIBILITIES Formal Advisory Opinion Service § 2638.313 Agency opinions. If the designated agency ethics official issues a written opinion concerning the application of...

A Fifteen-Year Forecast of Information-Processing Technology. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bernstein, George B.

This study developed a variation of the DELPHI approach, a polling technique for systematically soliciting opinions from experts, to produce a technological forecast of developments in the information-processing industry. SEER (System for Event Evaluation and Review) combines the more desirable elements of existing techniques: (1) intuitive…

A methodology for uncertainty quantification in quantitative technology valuation based on expert elicitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akram, Muhammad Farooq Bin

The management of technology portfolios is an important element of aerospace system design. New technologies are often applied to new product designs to ensure their competitiveness at the time they are introduced to market. The future performance of yet-to- be designed components is inherently uncertain, necessitating subject matter expert knowledge, statistical methods and financial forecasting. Estimates of the appropriate parameter settings often come from disciplinary experts, who may disagree with each other because of varying experience and background. Due to inherent uncertain nature of expert elicitation in technology valuation process, appropriate uncertainty quantification and propagation is very critical. The uncertainty in defining the impact of an input on performance parameters of a system makes it difficult to use traditional probability theory. Often the available information is not enough to assign the appropriate probability distributions to uncertain inputs. Another problem faced during technology elicitation pertains to technology interactions in a portfolio. When multiple technologies are applied simultaneously on a system, often their cumulative impact is non-linear. Current methods assume that technologies are either incompatible or linearly independent. It is observed that in case of lack of knowledge about the problem, epistemic uncertainty is the most suitable representation of the process. It reduces the number of assumptions during the elicitation process, when experts are forced to assign probability distributions to their opinions without sufficient knowledge. Epistemic uncertainty can be quantified by many techniques. In present research it is proposed that interval analysis and Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence are better suited for quantification of epistemic uncertainty in technology valuation process. Proposed technique seeks to offset some of the problems faced by using deterministic or traditional probabilistic approaches for

What causes breast cancer? A systematic review of causal attributions among breast cancer survivors and how these compare to expert-endorsed risk factors.

PubMed

Dumalaon-Canaria, Jo Anne; Hutchinson, Amanda D; Prichard, Ivanka; Wilson, Carlene

2014-07-01

The aim of this paper was to review published research that analyzed causal attributions for breast cancer among women previously diagnosed with breast cancer. These attributions were compared with risk factors identified by published scientific evidence in order to determine the level of agreement between cancer survivors' attributions and expert opinion. A comprehensive search for articles, published between 1982 and 2012, reporting studies on causal attributions for breast cancer among patients and survivors was undertaken. Of 5,135 potentially relevant articles, 22 studies met the inclusion criteria. Two additional articles were sourced from reference lists of included studies. Results indicated a consistent belief among survivors that their own breast cancer could be attributed to family history, environmental factors, stress, fate, or chance. Lifestyle factors were less frequently identified, despite expert health information highlighting the importance of these factors in controlling and modifying cancer risk. This review demonstrated that misperceptions about the contribution of modifiable lifestyle factors to the risk of breast cancer have remained largely unchanged over the past 30 years. The findings of this review indicate that beliefs about the causes of breast cancer among affected women are not always consistent with the judgement of experts. Breast cancer survivors did not regularly identify causal factors supported by expert consensus such as age, physical inactivity, breast density, alcohol consumption, and reproductive history. Further research examining psychological predictors of attributions and the impact of cancer prevention messages on adjustment and well-being of cancer survivors is warranted.

Choice Shift in Opinion Network Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabbay, Michael

Choice shift is a phenomenon associated with small group dynamics whereby group discussion causes group members to shift their opinions in a more extreme direction so that the mean post-discussion opinion exceeds the mean pre-discussion opinion. Also known as group polarization, choice shift is a robust experimental phenomenon and has been well-studied within social psychology. In opinion network models, shifts toward extremism are typically produced by the presence of stubborn agents at the extremes of the opinion axis, whose opinions are much more resistant to change than moderate agents. However, we present a model in which choice shift can arise without the assumption of stubborn agents; the model evolves member opinions and uncertainties using coupled nonlinear differential equations. In addition, we briefly describe the results of a recent experiment conducted involving online group discussion concerning the outcome of National Football League games are described. The model predictions concerning the effects of network structure, disagreement level, and team choice (favorite or underdog) are in accord with the experimental results. This research was funded by the Office of Naval Research and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency.

Opinion Dynamics with Confirmation Bias

PubMed Central

Allahverdyan, Armen E.; Galstyan, Aram

2014-01-01

Background Confirmation bias is the tendency to acquire or evaluate new information in a way that is consistent with one's preexisting beliefs. It is omnipresent in psychology, economics, and even scientific practices. Prior theoretical research of this phenomenon has mainly focused on its economic implications possibly missing its potential connections with broader notions of cognitive science. Methodology/Principal Findings We formulate a (non-Bayesian) model for revising subjective probabilistic opinion of a confirmationally-biased agent in the light of a persuasive opinion. The revision rule ensures that the agent does not react to persuasion that is either far from his current opinion or coincides with it. We demonstrate that the model accounts for the basic phenomenology of the social judgment theory, and allows to study various phenomena such as cognitive dissonance and boomerang effect. The model also displays the order of presentation effect–when consecutively exposed to two opinions, the preference is given to the last opinion (recency) or the first opinion (primacy) –and relates recency to confirmation bias. Finally, we study the model in the case of repeated persuasion and analyze its convergence properties. Conclusions The standard Bayesian approach to probabilistic opinion revision is inadequate for describing the observed phenomenology of persuasion process. The simple non-Bayesian model proposed here does agree with this phenomenology and is capable of reproducing a spectrum of effects observed in psychology: primacy-recency phenomenon, boomerang effect and cognitive dissonance. We point out several limitations of the model that should motivate its future development. PMID:25007078

Pathology resident attitudes and opinions about pathologists' assistants.

PubMed

Grzybicki, Dana Marie; Vrbin, Colleen M

2003-06-01

Changes in health care economics and organization have resulted in increased use of nonphysician providers in most health care settings. Attitudinal acceptance of nonphysician providers is important in the current health care environment. To obtain descriptive information regarding pathology resident attitudes and opinions about pathologists' assistants in anatomic pathology practice and to assess the implications of resident attitudes and opinions for pathology practice and training. A self-administered, mailed, voluntary, anonymous questionnaire was distributed to a cross-sectional sample of pathology residents in the United States (2531 pathology residents registered as resident members of one of the national pathology professional organizations). The questionnaire contained (1) items relating to resident demographics and program characteristics, (2) Likert-scale response items containing positive and negative statements about pathologists' assistants, (3) a multiple-choice item related to pathologists' assistants scope of practice, and (4) an open-ended item inviting additional comments. Both quantitative and qualitative analysis of responses was performed. The overall response rate was 19.4% (n = 490); 50% of the respondents were women, and 77% reported use of pathologists' assistants in their program. Most respondents were 25 to 35 years old and in postgraduate years 3 through 5 of their training, and most were located in the Midwestern United States. The majority of residents expressed overall positive attitudes and opinions about pathologists' assistants and felt that pathologists' assistants enhanced resident training by optimizing resident workload. A minority (10%-20%) of residents expressed negative attitudes or opinions about pathologists' assistants. Additionally, some residents reported a lack of knowledge about pathologists' assistants' training or roles. Increased resident education and open discussion concerning pathologists' assistants may be

Patients' reflections on communication in the second-opinion hematology-oncology consultation.

PubMed

Goldman, Roberta E; Sullivan, Amy; Back, Anthony L; Alexander, Stewart C; Matsuyama, Robin K; Lee, Stephanie J

2009-07-01

The nature of communication between patients and their second-opinion hematology consultants may be very different in these one-time consultations than for those that are within long-term relationships. This study explored patients' perceptions of their second-opinion hematology-oncology consultation to investigate physician-patient communication in malignant disease at a critical juncture in cancer patients' care and decision-making. In-depth telephone interviews with a subset of 20 patients from a larger study, following their subspecialty hematology consultations. Most patients wanted to contribute to the consultation agenda, but were unable to do so. Patients sought expert and honest advice delivered with empathy, though most did not expect the consultant to directly address their emotions. They wanted the physician to apply his/her knowledge to the specifics of their individual cases, and were disappointed and distrustful when physicians cited only general prognostic statistics. In contrast, physicians' consideration of the unique elements of patients' cases, and demonstrations of empathy and respect made patients' feel positively about the encounter, regardless of the prognosis. Patients provided concrete recommendations for physician and patient behaviors to enhance the consultation. Consideration of these recommendations may result in more effective communication and increased patient satisfaction with medical visits.

Impacts of opinion leaders on social contagions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Quan-Hui; Lü, Feng-Mao; Zhang, Qian; Tang, Ming; Zhou, Tao

2018-05-01

Opinion leaders are ubiquitous in both online and offline social networks, but the impacts of opinion leaders on social behavior contagions are still not fully understood, especially by using a mathematical model. Here, we generalize the classical Watts threshold model and address the influences of the opinion leaders, where an individual adopts a new behavior if one of his/her opinion leaders adopts the behavior. First, we choose the opinion leaders randomly from all individuals in the network and find that the impacts of opinion leaders make other individuals adopt the behavior more easily. Specifically, the existence of opinion leaders reduces the lowest mean degree of the network required for the global behavior adoption and increases the highest mean degree of the network that the global behavior adoption can occur. Besides, the introduction of opinion leaders accelerates the behavior adoption but does not change the adoption order of individuals. The developed theoretical predictions agree with the simulation results. Second, we randomly choose the opinion leaders from the top h % of the highest degree individuals and find an optimal h % for the network with the lowest mean degree that the global behavior adoption can occur. Meanwhile, the influences of opinion leaders on accelerating the adoption of behaviors become less significant and can even be ignored when reducing the value of h % .

OpinionSeer: interactive visualization of hotel customer feedback.

PubMed

Wu, Yingcai; Wei, Furu; Liu, Shixia; Au, Norman; Cui, Weiwei; Zhou, Hong; Qu, Huamin

2010-01-01

The rapid development of Web technology has resulted in an increasing number of hotel customers sharing their opinions on the hotel services. Effective visual analysis of online customer opinions is needed, as it has a significant impact on building a successful business. In this paper, we present OpinionSeer, an interactive visualization system that could visually analyze a large collection of online hotel customer reviews. The system is built on a new visualization-centric opinion mining technique that considers uncertainty for faithfully modeling and analyzing customer opinions. A new visual representation is developed to convey customer opinions by augmenting well-established scatterplots and radial visualization. To provide multiple-level exploration, we introduce subjective logic to handle and organize subjective opinions with degrees of uncertainty. Several case studies illustrate the effectiveness and usefulness of OpinionSeer on analyzing relationships among multiple data dimensions and comparing opinions of different groups. Aside from data on hotel customer feedback, OpinionSeer could also be applied to visually analyze customer opinions on other products or services.

Opinion formation on social media: An empirical approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiong, Fei; Liu, Yun

2014-03-01

Opinion exchange models aim to describe the process of public opinion formation, seeking to uncover the intrinsic mechanism in social systems; however, the model results are seldom empirically justified using large-scale actual data. Online social media provide an abundance of data on opinion interaction, but the question of whether opinion models are suitable for characterizing opinion formation on social media still requires exploration. We collect a large amount of user interaction information from an actual social network, i.e., Twitter, and analyze the dynamic sentiments of users about different topics to investigate realistic opinion evolution. We find two nontrivial results from these data. First, public opinion often evolves to an ordered state in which one opinion predominates, but not to complete consensus. Second, agents are reluctant to change their opinions, and the distribution of the number of individual opinion changes follows a power law. Then, we suggest a model in which agents take external actions to express their internal opinions according to their activity. Conversely, individual actions can influence the activity and opinions of neighbors. The probability that an agent changes its opinion depends nonlinearly on the fraction of opponents who have taken an action. Simulation results show user action patterns and the evolution of public opinion in the model coincide with the empirical data. For different nonlinear parameters, the system may approach different regimes. A large decay in individual activity slows down the dynamics, but causes more ordering in the system.

Florida Employer Opinion Survey. Annual Report, June 1993.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Florida State Dept. of Education, Tallahassee.

Each year the Florida Education and Training Placement Information Program (FETPIP) conducts surveys to determine the opinions of employers about the preparation of graduates of vocational programs. The 1993 survey focused on eight school district and community college occupational training areas (i.e., automotive technology, gasoline engine…

The transition into veterinary practice: Opinions of recent graduates and final year students

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background The transition from veterinary student to member of the veterinary profession is known to be challenging. This study aimed to determine and compare the opinions of final year veterinary students and recent graduates on graduate attributes that ease this transition. Methods The study was carried out across 3 veterinary schools in the United Kingdom. Paper based or electronic surveys were used. Final year students in the 3 schools were surveyed either electronically (school A) or on paper (schools B and C). Student cohort sizes were 112, 227 and 102 respectively. Recent graduates were contacted either at a reunion event (school A) or electronically from database records (school B and school C). Cohort sizes of contacted graduates were 80, 175 and 91 respectively. Respondents were asked to rate 42 individual attributes on a 5 point Likert scale. Focus groups with final year students and recent graduates and telephone interviews with recent graduates were carried out. Data were analysed by two researchers through a combination of manual coding and thematic analysis. Data were grouped into broad themes then sorted into narrower themes. Data were then searched for counter examples. Results Response rates for final year students were 34% (school A), 36% (school B) and 40% (school C). Response rates for recent graduates were 56% (school A), 20% (school B) and 11% (school C). There was a high level of agreement between the cohorts with respect to communication skills, problem solving and decision making skills, recognition of own limitations and the ability to cope with pressure all rated unanimously important or very important. Business acumen, knowledge of veterinary practice management and research skills were the 3 attributes ranked at the bottom of the list. Nine attributes were identified with a significantly different (p < 0.05) ranking between the cohorts. Final year students ranked veterinary clinical knowledge, knowledge of veterinary public health and

The transition into veterinary practice: opinions of recent graduates and final year students.

PubMed

Rhind, Susan M; Baillie, Sarah; Kinnison, Tierney; Shaw, Darren J; Bell, Catriona E; Mellanby, Richard J; Hammond, Jenny; Hudson, Neil P H; Whittington, Rachel E; Donnelly, Ruth

2011-09-22

The transition from veterinary student to member of the veterinary profession is known to be challenging. This study aimed to determine and compare the opinions of final year veterinary students and recent graduates on graduate attributes that ease this transition. The study was carried out across 3 veterinary schools in the United Kingdom. Paper based or electronic surveys were used. Final year students in the 3 schools were surveyed either electronically (school A) or on paper (schools B and C). Student cohort sizes were 112, 227 and 102 respectively. Recent graduates were contacted either at a reunion event (school A) or electronically from database records (school B and school C). Cohort sizes of contacted graduates were 80, 175 and 91 respectively. Respondents were asked to rate 42 individual attributes on a 5 point Likert scale. Focus groups with final year students and recent graduates and telephone interviews with recent graduates were carried out. Data were analysed by two researchers through a combination of manual coding and thematic analysis. Data were grouped into broad themes then sorted into narrower themes. Data were then searched for counter examples. Response rates for final year students were 34% (school A), 36% (school B) and 40% (school C). Response rates for recent graduates were 56% (school A), 20% (school B) and 11% (school C). There was a high level of agreement between the cohorts with respect to communication skills, problem solving and decision making skills, recognition of own limitations and the ability to cope with pressure all rated unanimously important or very important. Business acumen, knowledge of veterinary practice management and research skills were the 3 attributes ranked at the bottom of the list. Nine attributes were identified with a significantly different (p < 0.05) ranking between the cohorts. Final year students ranked veterinary clinical knowledge, knowledge of veterinary public health and zoonotic issues, veterinary

Opinion Formation Models on a Gradient

PubMed Central

Gastner, Michael T.; Markou, Nikolitsa; Pruessner, Gunnar; Draief, Moez

2014-01-01

Statistical physicists have become interested in models of collective social behavior such as opinion formation, where individuals change their inherently preferred opinion if their friends disagree. Real preferences often depend on regional cultural differences, which we model here as a spatial gradient g in the initial opinion. The gradient does not only add reality to the model. It can also reveal that opinion clusters in two dimensions are typically in the standard (i.e., independent) percolation universality class, thus settling a recent controversy about a non-consensus model. However, using analytical and numerical tools, we also present a model where the width of the transition between opinions scales , not as in independent percolation, and the cluster size distribution is consistent with first-order percolation. PMID:25474528

[The picture of malingered symptom presentation in public opinion].

PubMed

Schlicht, D; Merten, Thomas

2014-09-01

The views held by health experts on certain topics may differ drastically from what appears to be obvious from observations in daily living or public opinion. This is true for a number of myths which continue to haunt the literature with respect to feigned health problems. Such myths tend to ignore or to distort the results of modern research. We performed two pilot studies: first a content analysis of 67 German- and English-language articles from newspapers, magazines or internet journals, and second, a survey on the experience of, and beliefs related to, exaggeration and symptom invention in health care and forensic assessment. A non-representative sample of 15 adults from the general population was interviewed. Most of them reported their own experiences or incidents in their social networks involving feigned health problems. Base rate estimates of malingering in five prototypical contexts ranged between 46 and 67 percent of cases. While the participants showed a preference for an adaptational explanatory model of malingering (selected for about 53% of cases of malingering), journalistic sources often employed pejorative language and combat rhetoric, aiming to arouse indignation or outrage in the readership. The majority of articles were classified to adhere to a criminological explanatory model. While the pilot character of the studies limits their generalisability, the results may be suited to question the validity of some long-held expert beliefs.

Second opinion oral pathology referrals in New Zealand.

PubMed

Seo, B; Hussaini, H M; Rich, A M

2017-04-01

Referral for a second opinion is an important aspect of pathology practice, which reduces the rate of diagnostic error and ensures consistency with diagnoses. The Oral Pathology Centre (OPC) is the only specialist oral diagnostic centre in New Zealand. OPC provides diagnostic services to dentists and dental specialists throughout New Zealand and acts as a referral centre for second opinions for oral pathology specimens that have been sent to anatomical pathologists. The aim of this study was to review second opinion referral cases sent to the OPC over a 15-year period and to assess the levels of concordance between the original and final diagnoses. The findings indicated that the majority of referred cases were odontogenic lesions, followed by connective tissue, epithelial and salivary lesions. The most prevalent diagnoses were ameloblastoma and keratocystic odontogenic tumour, followed by oral squamous cell carcinoma. Discordant diagnoses were recorded in 24% of cases. Diagnostic discrepancies were higher in odontogenic and salivary gland lesions, resulting in the change of diagnoses. Second opinion of oral pathology cases should be encouraged in view of the relative rarity of these lesions in general pathology laboratories and the rates of diagnostic discrepancy, particularly for odontogenic and salivary gland lesions. Copyright © 2017 Royal College of Pathologists of Australasia. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Opinions and beliefs of the Spanish population on serious mental illnesses (schizophrenia and bipolar disorder)].

PubMed

Ruiz, Miguel Ángel; Montes, José Manuel; Correas Lauffer, Javier; Alvarez, Cristina; Mauriño, Jorge; de Dios Perrino, Consuelo

2012-01-01

To find out the opinions, beliefs and concerns of the Spanish population on serious mental diseases: schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. An ad-hoc questionnaire was constructed for the survey. A panel of seven experts extracted the contents. The Societies that involved were: ASAENES, ABBA, FEAFES-ANDALUCÍA, AMAFE, and AFAEM-5 advocacy societies were also involved. The questionnaire contained 12 questions about: knowledge of the diseases, diagnostic difficulties, symptoms, triggering factors, interference, treatments and effectiveness, beliefs and concerns. The questionnaire was administered during the IV Campaign of Social Awareness about Serious Mental Illness (Madrid and Seville, September-October 2009). A total of 5,473 questionnaires were collected, 55.8% in Seville. The majority (66.2%) of the sample were women, and the mean age was 35 years (SD=14.5). Both illnesses were known by 82% of the population, but 51% did not known any symptom of schizophrenia. Other notable opinions were; they are difficult to diagnose (59%), they were not diagnosed due to social rejection (27%), interfered quite a lot with daily life (49%) or prevented a normal life (42%), the effective treatments are psychological (72%). Beliefs were: social rejection, family burden, and patient suffering. Concerns included: dangerousness, social rejection, lack of information, and scarcity of resources. There is a lack of knowledge of the symptoms. The majority do not know about specific symptoms and highlight the negative ones. Combined pharmacological-psychological treatment is believed to be most effective. Social stigma and family and personal burden are concerns. Copyright © 2011 SEP y SEPB. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Dynamics of bounded confidence opinion in heterogeneous social networks: Concord against partial antagonism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurmyshev, Evguenii; Juárez, Héctor A.; González-Silva, Ricardo A.

2011-08-01

Bounded confidence models of opinion dynamics in social networks have been actively studied in recent years, in particular, opinion formation and extremism propagation along with other aspects of social dynamics. In this work, after an analysis of limitations of the Deffuant-Weisbuch (DW) bounded confidence, relative agreement model, we propose the mixed model that takes into account two psychological types of individuals. Concord agents (C-agents) are friendly people; they interact in a way that their opinions always get closer. Agents of the other psychological type show partial antagonism in their interaction (PA-agents). Opinion dynamics in heterogeneous social groups, consisting of agents of the two types, was studied on different social networks: Erdös-Rényi random graphs, small-world networks and complete graphs. Limit cases of the mixed model, pure C- and PA-societies, were also studied. We found that group opinion formation is, qualitatively, almost independent of the topology of networks used in this work. Opinion fragmentation, polarization and consensus are observed in the mixed model at different proportions of PA- and C-agents, depending on the value of initial opinion tolerance of agents. As for the opinion formation and arising of “dissidents”, the opinion dynamics of the C-agents society was found to be similar to that of the DW model, except for the rate of opinion convergence. Nevertheless, mixed societies showed dynamics and bifurcation patterns notably different to those of the DW model. The influence of biased initial conditions over opinion formation in heterogeneous social groups was also studied versus the initial value of opinion uncertainty, varying the proportion of the PA- to C-agents. Bifurcation diagrams showed an impressive evolution of collective opinion, in particular, radical changes of left to right consensus or vice versa at an opinion uncertainty value equal to 0.7 in the model with the PA/C mixture of population near 50/50.

Opinion Expression as a Rational Behavior.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Sei-Hill

This study looks at individuals' opinion expressions as a rational behavior based on a conscious calculus of expected benefits and costs (economic analysis). The influences of "issue benefit,""opinion congruence," and "issue knowledge," as sources of benefits and costs on opinion expression were hypothesized and tested. The study also examined the…

Analysis of Nigerian dentists' opinion and consequences on expanded function dental auxiliaries.

PubMed

Umanah, A U; Azodo, C

2015-06-01

To examine Nigerian dentists' opinion on expanded function dental auxiliaries. This cross-sectional study of Nigerian dentists attending a dental conference was conducting in 2012 using self-administered questionnaire. The data were analyzed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences version 16.0. P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. The majority of the 82 dentists that participated in this study were male, aged 31-40 years, either specialist or specializing (residents), practiced for < 10 years, teaching hospital and urban practitioners. Of the participants, 22 (26.8%) reported favorable opinion towards expanded duty dental auxiliaries. The mean scores on consequences, of expanded function dental auxiliaries ranked redundancy of dentist as highest. Males and non-specialist significantly reported expanded function dental auxiliaries would lead to redundancy of dentists. Practitioners working in other hospitals other than teaching hospital significantly reported that appropriate legislation are necessary before expansion of duties of the dental auxiliaries can be done. The dentists with favorable opinion significantly reported that expanded duty dental auxiliaries would not cause redundancy of dentist and the task are not too difficult for dental auxiliaries with necessary training but will increase service delivery and efficiency, increase job satisfaction, lead to dental auxiliary specialization with legislation. Data from this study revealed overall unfavorable opinion of Nigerian dentists on the expanded duty dental auxiliaries. However, those with favorable opinion were significantly supportive of expanded function dental auxiliaries. This information would serve as a useful tool for Nigerian oral healthcare policy formulators.

Attitudes of Agricultural Experts Toward Genetically Modified Crops: A Case Study in Southwest Iran.

PubMed

Ghanian, Mansour; Ghoochani, Omid M; Kitterlin, Miranda; Jahangiry, Sheida; Zarafshani, Kiumars; Van Passel, Steven; Azadi, Hossein

2016-04-01

The production of genetically modified (GM) crops is growing around the world, and with it possible opportunities to combat food insecurity and hunger, as well as solutions to current problems facing conventional agriculture. In this regard the use of GMOs in food and agricultural applications has increased greatly over the past decade. However, the development of GM crops has been a matter of considerable interest and worldwide public controversy. This, in addition to skepticism, has stifled the use of this practice on a large scale in many areas, including Iran. It stands to reason that a greater understanding of this practice could be formed after a review of the existing expert opinions surrounding GM crops. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to analyze the predictors that influence agricultural experts' attitudes toward the development of and policies related to GM crops. Using a descriptive correlational research method, questionnaire data was collected from 65 experts from the Agricultural Organization in the Gotvand district in Southwest Iran. Results indicated that agricultural experts were aware of the environmental benefits and possible risks associated with GM crops. The majority of participants agreed that GM crops could improve food security and accelerate rural development, and were proponents of labeling practices for GM crops. Finally, there was a positive correlation between the perception of benefits and attitudes towards GM crops.

An inter-observer agreement study of autofluorescence endoscopy in Barrett's esophagus among expert and non-expert endoscopists.

PubMed

Mannath, J; Subramanian, V; Telakis, E; Lau, K; Ramappa, V; Wireko, M; Kaye, P V; Ragunath, K

2013-02-01

Autofluorescence imaging (AFI), which is a "red flag" technique during Barrett's surveillance, is associated with significant false positive results. The aim of this study was to assess the inter-observer agreement (IOA) in identifying AFI-positive lesions and to assess the overall accuracy of AFI. Anonymized AFI and high resolution white light (HRE) images were prospectively collected. The AFI images were presented in random order, followed by corresponding AFI + HRE images. Three AFI experts and 3 AFI non-experts scored images after a training presentation. The IOA was calculated using kappa and accuracy was calculated with histology as gold standard. Seventy-four sets of images were prospectively collected from 63 patients (48 males, mean age 69 years). The IOA for number of AF positive lesions was fair when AFI images were presented. This improved to moderate with corresponding AFI and HRE images [experts 0.57 (0.44-0.70), non-experts 0.47 (0.35-0.62)]. The IOA for the site of AF lesion was moderate for experts and fair for non-experts using AF images, which improved to substantial for experts [κ = 0.62 (0.50-0.72)] but remained at fair for non-experts [κ = 0.28 (0.18-0.37)] with AFI + HRE. Among experts, the accuracy of identifying dysplasia was 0.76 (0.7-0.81) using AFI images and 0.85 (0.79-0.89) using AFI + HRE images. The accuracy was 0.69 (0.62-0.74) with AFI images alone and 0.75 (0.70-0.80) using AFI + HRE among non-experts. The IOA for AF positive lesions is fair to moderate using AFI images which improved with addition of HRE. The overall accuracy of identifying dysplasia was modest, and was better when AFI and HRE images were combined.

Florida Employer Opinion Survey. Annual Report, June 1992.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Florida State Dept. of Education, Tallahassee.

Each year the Florida Education and Training Placement Information Program (FETPIP) conducts surveys to determine the opinions of employers about the preparation of graduates of vocational programs. The 1992 survey focused on eight specific occupational training areas (i.e., child care services, computer programming and analysis, dental assisting,…

Expert and non-expert knowledge in medical practice.

PubMed

Nordin, I

2000-01-01

One problematic aspect of the rationality of medical practice concerns the relation between expert knowledge and non-expert knowledge. In medical practice it is important to match medical knowledge with the self-knowledge of the individual patient. This paper tries to study the problem of such matching by describing a model for technological paradigms and comparing it with an ideal of technological rationality. The professionalised experts tend to base their decisions and actions mostly on medical knowledge while the rationality of medicine also involves just as important elements of the personal evaluation and knowledge of the patients. Since both types of knowledge are necessary for rational decisions, the gap between the expert and the non-expert has to be bridged in some way. A solution to the problem is suggested in terms of pluralism, with the patient as ultimate decision-maker.

An Expert Opinion on Advanced Insulin Pump Use in Youth with Type 1 Diabetes.

PubMed

Bode, Bruce W; Kaufman, Francine R; Vint, Nan

2017-03-01

Among children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes mellitus, the use of insulin pump therapy has increased since its introduction in the early 1980s. Optimal management of type 1 diabetes mellitus depends on sufficient understanding by patients, their families, and healthcare providers on how to use pump technology. The goal for the use of insulin pump therapy should be to advance proficiency over time from the basics taught at the initiation of pump therapy to utilizing advanced settings to obtain optimal glycemic control. However, this goal is often not met, and appropriate understanding of the full features of pump technology can be lacking. The objective of this review is to provide an expert perspective on the advanced features and use of insulin pump therapy, including practical guidelines for the successful use of insulin pump technology, and other considerations specific to patients and healthcare providers.

Application of Delphi expert panel in joint venture projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adnan, H.; Rosman, M. R.; Rashid, Z. Z. Ahmad; Mohamad Yusuwan, N.; Bakhary, N. A.

2018-02-01

This study was conducted with the aim to identify the application of the Delphi Technique in validating findings obtained from questionnaire surveys and interviews done in- depth on the subject of joint venture projects in Malaysia. The Delphi technique aims to achieve a consensus of opinion amongst expert panellist that were selected on the primary factors in JV projects. To achieve research objectives, a progressive series of questions was designed where a selected panel of expert to confirm and validate the final findings. The rationale, benefits, limitations and recommendations for the use of Delphi were given in this study. From the literature review done, twenty-one factors were identified as critical factors to the making any joint venture project successful. Detail information from contractors were obtained by using the questionnaire survey method and forty-three in-depth interviews were carried out. Trust between partners, mutual understanding, partner selection criteria, agreement of contract, objective compatibility, conflict, and commitment were confirmed by the Delphi panel to be the critical success factors besides another fourteen factors which were found to be the Failure Reduction Criteria. Delphi techniques has proven to successfully assist in recognising the main factors and would be beneficial in supplementing the success of joint venture arrangements application for construction projects in Malaysia.

Expert - Non-expert differences in visual behaviour during alpine slalom skiing.

PubMed

Decroix, Marjolein; Wazir, Mohd Rozilee Wazir Norjali; Zeuwts, Linus; Deconinck, Frederik F J A; Lenoir, Matthieu; Vansteenkiste, Pieter

2017-10-01

The aim of this study was to investigate visual behaviour of expert and non-expert ski athletes during an alpine slalom. Fourteen non-experts and five expert slalom skiers completed an alpine slalom course in an indoor ski slope while wearing a head-mounted eye tracking device. Experts completed the slalom clearly faster than non-experts, but no significant difference was found in timing and position of the turn initiation. Although both groups already looked at future obstacles approximately 0,5s before passing the upcoming pole, the higher speed of experts implied that they shifted gaze spatially earlier in the bend than non-experts. Furthermore, experts focussed more on the second next pole while non-expert slalom skiers looked more to the snow surface immediately in front of their body. No difference was found in the fixation frequency, average fixation duration, and quiet eye duration between both groups. These results suggest that experts focus on the timing of their actions while non-experts still need to pay attention to the execution of these actions. These results also might suggest that ski trainers should instruct non-experts and experts to focus on the next pole and, shift their gaze to the second next pole shortly before reaching it. Based on the current study it seems unadvisable to instruct slalom skiers to look several poles ahead during the actual slalom. However, future research should test if these results still hold on a real outdoor slope, including multiple vertical gates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Analysis of the causes of visual disability based on medical court opinions].

PubMed

Czepita, Damian; Zejmo, Maria

2005-01-01

To determine visual invalidity causes based on medical-court opinions. An analysis of 337 medical-court opinions requested by the Public Insurance Department of the State Court in Szczecin has been carried out. The opinions concerned 189 men and 148 women at the age ranging from 23 to 96 years old. The average age was 52 years. The causes of appeals have been analyzed as well as admitted welfare assistance due to disablement and none self-reliance. It was found that a trauma of an eye was the most frequent cause of applying a request for acknowledgment of partial disablement (13.4%) or complete disablement (25.8%). The most frequent reason of being not self-reliant was glaucoma (16.4%). It has been observed that the most often accepted by court cause of partial disablement was the undergoing of an eye injury (22.8%). Glaucoma was the most often accepted by court cause of complete disablement (17%) and none self-reliance (15.4%).

Improving Five-level Triage Form According to the Experts Viewpoint; A Qualitative Study

PubMed Central

Bazm, Ali; Khorasani, Elahe; Etemadi, Manal; Nadeali, Hadi

2015-01-01

Objectives: This study is a qualitative study being conducted in five stages at Vali-Asr Hospital of Qom in 2013. After two surveys, the experts were interviewed using focus group discussion (FDG) and study was continuing with. Data were analyzed through studying the opinions of the specialized teams’ members, summarizing and classifying the data in qualitative phase. Results: Changes proposed in the triage form communicated by Iran’s emergency department according to the participants’ opinions include informing all the patients in the emergency department of some necessary information. Therefore, three parts of medical and medicinal history, vital signs and level of consciousness were added to the first part of the form and necessary emergency facilities were also added to the third level of triage. Conclusion: Measuring each item added to the general part of the triage form provides more precise diagnosis and more scientific classification, since the level to which the patient belongs should be identified based on medical history, clinical signs and level of consciousness. PMID:27162895

A mobile phone application for the collection of opinion data for forest planning purposes.

PubMed

Kangas, Annika; Rasinmäki, Jussi; Eyvindson, Kyle; Chambers, Philip

2015-04-01

The last 30 years has seen an increase in environmental, socio-economic, and recreational objectives being considered throughout the forest planning process. In the Finnish context these are considered mainly at the regional level potentially missing out on more local issues and problems. Such local information would be most efficiently collected with a participatory GIS approach. A mobile participatory GIS application called Tienoo was developed as a tool for collecting location-specific opinions of recreational and aesthetical characteristics of forests and forest management. The application also contains information the user can access regarding the practical details of the area, for instance about the recreational infrastructure. The application was tested in Ruunaa National Hiking Area, North Karelia, Eastern Finland. Through this application it is possible to continuously collect geolocated preference information. As a result, the collected opinions have details which can be located in both time and space. This allows for the possibility to monitor the changes in opinions when the stands are treated, and it also allows for easily analyzing the effect of time of year on the opinions. It is also possible to analyze the effect of the spatial location and the forest characteristics on the opinions using GIS analysis.

Opinion evolution in different social acquaintance networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xi; Zhang, Xiao; Wu, Zhan; Wang, Hongwei; Wang, Guohua; Li, Wei

2017-11-01

Social acquaintance networks influenced by social culture and social policy have a great impact on public opinion evolution in daily life. Based on the differences between socio-culture and social policy, three different social acquaintance networks (kinship-priority acquaintance network, independence-priority acquaintance network, and hybrid acquaintance network) incorporating heredity proportion ph and variation proportion pv are proposed in this paper. Numerical experiments are conducted to investigate network topology and different phenomena during opinion evolution, using the Deffuant model. We found that in kinship-priority acquaintance networks, similar to the Chinese traditional acquaintance networks, opinions always achieve fragmentation, resulting in the formation of multiple large clusters and many small clusters due to the fact that individuals believe more in their relatives and live in a relatively closed environment. In independence-priority acquaintance networks, similar to Western acquaintance networks, the results are similar to those in the kinship-priority acquaintance network. In hybrid acquaintance networks, similar to the Chinese modern acquaintance networks, only a few clusters are formed indicating that in modern China, opinions are more likely to reach consensus on a large scale. These results are similar to the opinion evolution phenomena in modern society, proving the rationality and applicability of network models combined with social culture and policy. We also found a threshold curve pv+2 ph=2.05 in the results for the final opinion clusters and evolution time. Above the threshold curve, opinions could easily reach consensus. Based on the above experimental results, a culture-policy-driven mechanism for the opinion dynamic is worth promoting in this paper, that is, opinion dynamics can be driven by different social cultures and policies through the influence of heredity and variation in interpersonal relationship networks. This

Formulation and communication of evaluative forensic science expert opinion-A GHEP-ISFG contribution to the establishment of standards.

PubMed

Amorim, António; Crespillo, Manuel; Luque, Juan A; Prieto, Lourdes; Garcia, Oscar; Gusmão, Leonor; Aler, Mercedes; Barrio, Pedro A; Saragoni, Victor G; Pinto, Nadia

2016-11-01

Communicating and interpreting genetic evidence in the administration of justice is currently a matter of great concern, due to the theoretical and technical complexity of the evaluative reporting and large difference in expertise between forensic experts and law professionals. A large number of initiatives have been taken trying to bridge this gap, contributing to the education of both parties. Results however have not been very encouraging, as most of these initiatives try to cope globally with the problem, addressing simultaneously theoretical and technical approaches which are in a quite heterogeneous state of development and validation. In consequence, the extension and complexity of the resulting documents disheartens their study by professionals (both jurists and geneticists) and makes a consensus very hard to reach even among the genetic experts' community. Here we propose a 'back-to-basics', example-driven approach, in which a model report for the two most common situations faced by forensic laboratories is presented. We do hope that this strategy will provide a solid basis for a stepwise generalisation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The learning continuum of ecology based on teachers' opinion about student's level of competence and specific pedagogical learning material

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pramesti, Indah Cahaya; Subali, Bambang

2017-08-01

This study aims at designing learning continuum for developing a curriculum based on teachers' opinion about student's level of competence and specific pedagogical learning material on ecological aspect targeted for students of Primary and Secondary Education. This research is a descriptive research using survey methods. The researchers conducted a census by distributing questionnaires that had been validated from the aspects of construct validity and experts judgements to 147 natural science teachers at junior high school and 134 Biology teachers at senior high school as a population throughout 4 regencies and 1 city in Yogyakarta Special Region.. Data analysis techniques used descriptive analysis. In conclusion, teacher's opinion is influenced by curriculum that exist today. According to the opinions of Natural Science teachers at Junior High School, most of the ecological aspects such as characteristics of biomes, characteristics of ecosystems, characteristics of communities, characteristics of populations, etc. should be taught in grade VII with the level of competence: to understand (C2), while Biology teachers at Senior High School state that the ecological aspect should be taught in class X with the level of competence: to understand (C2), apply (C3) and analyze (C4). Teachers should be a privy in the formulation of the curriculum, so they're not only accept and apply the existing curriculum but also give opinions to improve the curriculum, especially in terms of ecology.

Surgeon-industry conflict of interest: survey of opinions regarding industry-sponsored educational events and surgeon teaching: clinical article.

PubMed

DiPaola, Christian P; Dea, Nicolas; Dvorak, Marcel F; Lee, Robert S; Hartig, Dennis; Fisher, Charles G

2014-03-01

Conflict of interest (COI) as it applies to medical education and training has become a source of considerable interest, debate, and regulation in the last decade. Companies often pay surgeons as faculty for educational events and often sponsor and give financial support to major professional society meetings. Professional medical societies, industry, and legislators have attempted to regulate potential COI without consideration for public opinion. The practice of evidence-based medicine requires the inclusion of patient opinion along with best available evidence and expert opinion. The primary goal of this study was to assess the opinion of the general population regarding surgeon-industry COI for education-related events. A Web-based survey was administered, with special emphasis on the surgeon's role in industry-sponsored education and support of professional societies. A survey was constructed to sample opinions on reimbursement, disclosure, and funding sources for educational events. There were 501 completed surveys available for analysis. More than 90% of respondents believed that industry funding for surgeons' tuition and travel for either industry-sponsored or professional society educational meetings would either not affect the quality of care delivered or would cause it to improve. Similar results were generated for opinions on surgeons being paid by industry to teach other surgeons. Moreover, the majority of respondents believed it was ethical or had no opinion if surgeons had such a relationship with industry. Respondents were also generally in favor of educational conferences for surgeons regardless of funding source. Disclosures of a surgeon-industry relationship, especially if it involves specific devices that may be used in their surgery, appears to be important to respondents. The vast majority of respondents in this study do not believe that the quality of their care will be diminished due to industry funding of educational events, for surgeon

Similarities and differences of systematic consensus on disaster mental health services between Japanese and European experts.

PubMed

Fukasawa, Maiko; Suzuki, Yuriko; Nakajima, Satomi; Narisawa, Tomomi; Kim, Yoshiharu

2013-04-01

We recently developed new disaster mental health guidelines in Japan through the Delphi process, a method for building consensus among experts, using as a reference the guidelines developed by The European Network for Traumatic Stress (TENTS) in Europe. We included in our survey 30 items used in the TENTS survey, 20 of which achieved positive consensus in that survey. Here we report on the extent of agreement of 95 Japanese experts on each of these 30 items and examine the reasons for disagreements with the TENTS survey results based on the comments obtained from the participants of our survey. Of the 20 items, 12 also gained consensus in our survey and 1 additional item achieved consensus that did not achieve it in the TENTS survey. Items that did not gain consensus in our survey, but did in the TENTS survey, were recommendations for close collaboration with the media, screening volunteers for their suitability, and withholding formal screening of the affected population. The need for specialist care for specific populations was endorsed in our survey, but not in the TENTS survey. Overall, the opinion of Japanese experts was congruent with that of Western experts, but some guideline amendments would be beneficial. Copyright © 2013 International Society for Traumatic Stress Studies.

A Descriptive Analysis of Selected Community Stakeholder Opinions regarding Potentially Critical Factors in School Bond Referenda Success or Failure in Kansas during the Years 2004-2007

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kraus, Brian W.

2009-01-01

The purpose of this study was to analyze opinions of selected school district stakeholders regarding potentially critical factors in school bond referendum success and failure in Kansas during the years 2004-2007. Of the 72 eligible school districts, one district was randomly selected from each of six groups formed through a stratified random…

Opinion Summarizationof CustomerComments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Miao; Wu, Guoshi

Web 2.0 technologies have enabled more and more customers to freely comment on different kinds of entities, such as sellers, products and services. The large scale of information poses the need and challenge of automatic summarization. In many cases, each of the user-generated short comments implies the opinions which rate the target entity. In this paper, we aim to mine and to summarize all the customer comments of a product. The algorithm proposed in this researchis more reliable on opinion identification because it is unsupervised and the accuracy of the result improves as the number of comments increases. Our research is performed in four steps: (1) mining the frequent aspects of a product that have been commented on by customers; (2) mining the infrequent aspects of a product which have been commented by customers (3) identifying opinion words in each comment and deciding whether each opinion word is positive, negative or neutral; (4) summarizing the comments. This paper proposes several novel techniques to perform these tasks. Our experimental results using comments of a number of products sold online demonstrate the effectiveness of the techniques.

Training Laparoscopic Skills at Home: Residents' Opinion of a New Portable Tablet Box Trainer.

PubMed

van der Aa, Jessica E; Schreuder, Henk W R

2016-04-01

To determine residents' opinion about a new portable box trainer, to see if they would be interested in using this for training at home, and to give an overview of the box trainers that could be used at home. An expert opinion study was performed among 27 gynecology residents to determine the value of the portable box trainer in training their laparoscopic skills and the value of using it at home. Their opinions were scored on a 5-point Likert scale. Gynecology residents very much appreciated the portable box trainer in its design, size, visualization, light source, ability to record, and instruments (all median 4). They felt that the portable box trainer would be effective in training laparoscopic skills in general; in training hand-eye coordination, 3D perception, and tying knots (all median 4); and especially in training basic skills (median 5). Almost all residents would use the portable box trainer if they had one at home (median 5). The literature supports the hypothesis that training laparoscopic skills at home using a box trainer may be effective in acquiring and maintaining laparoscopic skills. Training laparoscopic skills at home using a portable box trainer may be of added value in the laparoscopic training of surgical residents. Residents feel positive about using the new portable box trainer that is presented and appreciate the possibility of training at home. © The Author(s) 2015.

The impact of competing zealots on opinion dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verma, Gunjan; Swami, Ananthram; Chan, Kevin

2014-02-01

An individual’s opinion on an issue is greatly impacted by others in his or her social network. Most people are open-minded and ready to change their opinion when presented evidence; however, some are zealots or inflexibles, that is, individuals who refuse to change their opinion while staunchly advocating an opinion in hopes of convincing others. Zealotry is present in opinions of significant personal investment, such as political, religious or corporate affiliation; it tends to be less commonplace in opinions involving rumors or fashion trends. In this paper, we examine the effect that zealots have in a population whose opinion dynamics obey the naming game model. We present numerical and analytical results about the number and nature of steady state solutions, demonstrating the existence of a bifurcation in the space of zealot fractions. Our analysis indicates conditions under which a minority zealot opinion ultimately prevails, and conditions under which neither opinion attains a majority. We also present numerical and simulation analysis of finite populations and on networks with partial connectivity.

Ranking experts' preferences regarding measures and methods of assessment of welfare in dairy herds using Adaptive Conjoint Analysis.

PubMed

Lievaart, J J; Noordhuizen, J P T M

2011-07-01

Welfare in dairy herds can be addressed using different concepts. The difficulty is to extract which measures are the most important to practically address welfare at the herd level and the methods to assess traits considered most important. Therefore, the preferences of 24 acknowledged European welfare experts were ranked regarding 70 measures suitable to assess dairy cattle welfare at herd level using the Adaptive Conjoint Analysis (ACA; Sawtooth Software, Inc., Sequim, WA) technique. The experts were selected on the basis of 3 criteria: at least 5 yr experience in animal welfare research; recent scientific publications in the field of animal welfare; and, at the most, 3 animal species including dairy cattle as their field of expertise. The 70 traits were ranked by using the median ACA questionnaire utility scores and the range between the answers of the 24 experts. A high utility score with a low range between the answers of the experts was considered as suitable to assess welfare at farm level. Measures meeting these criteria were prevalence of lameness cases (107.3±11.7), competition for feed and water (96.4±13.9), and number of freestalls per 10 cows (84.8±13.3). Based on the utility score alone, these former measures were replaced by stereotypic behavior (111.7±17.1), prevalence of lameness cases (107.3±11.7), body condition score (108.0±18.9), and hock lesions (104.7±16.1). Subsequently, to demonstrate that the ACA technique can be used to rank either well-known or inconclusive methods of assessment, the methods for the traits lameness cases and the hygiene of the calving pen were ranked using another 2 ACA questionnaires. The results are based on the opinions of selected, internationally acknowledged dairy cattle welfare experts within the European Union. In the future, other parties like dairy farmers and farmers' organization should be included to achieve consensus about the most suitable traits applicable in practice. The currently investigated

Elite Repudiation of the R-Word and Public Opinion About Intellectual Disability.

PubMed

Lyle, Monique L; Simplican, Stacy Clifford

2015-06-01

Part of the motivation for encouraging elite stakeholders—like governments, professionals, and advocacy groups—to replace the language of "mental retardation" with "intellectual disability" (ID) is the belief that elite endorsement could undermine negative attitudes and influence the public to follow suit. We examine the veracity of this expectation empirically with an experiment that exposed individuals to information about endorsements of the terminology change made by the federal government, Special Olympics, or professional psychologists. We subsequently measured attitudes about persons with ID and the language used to describe ID. Results indicate that exposure to information about elite endorsement of the terminological shift either exacerbated negative attitudes or had no effect, suggesting that other factors may have primacy over "expert" opinion.

Phase transitions in Nowak Sznajd opinion dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wołoszyn, Maciej; Stauffer, Dietrich; Kułakowski, Krzysztof

2007-05-01

The Nowak modification of the Sznajd opinion dynamics model on the square lattice assumes that with probability β the opinions flip due to mass-media advertising from down to up, and vice versa. Besides, with probability α the Sznajd rule applies that a neighbour pair agreeing in its two opinions convinces all its six neighbours of that opinion. Our Monte Carlo simulations and mean-field theory find sharp phase transitions in the parameter space.

An application of the Continuous Opinions and Discrete Actions (CODA) model to adolescent smoking initiation.

PubMed

Sun, Ruoyan; Mendez, David

2017-01-01

We investigated the impact of peers' opinions on the smoking initiation process among adolescents. We applied the Continuous Opinions and Discrete Actions (CODA) model to study how social interactions change adolescents' opinions and behaviors about smoking. Through agent-based modeling (ABM), we simulated a population of 2500 adolescents and compared smoking prevalence to data from 9 cohorts of adolescents in the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) from year 2001 till 2014. Our model adjusts well for NSDUH data according to pseudo R2 values, which are at least 96%. Optimal parameter values indicate that adolescents exhibit imitator characteristics with regard to smoking opinions. The imitator characteristics suggests that teenagers tend to update their opinions consistently according to what others do, and these opinions later translate into smoking behaviors. As a result, peer influence from social networks plays a big role in the smoking initiation process and should be an important driver in policy formulation.

A Self-Categorization Explanation for Opinion Consensus Perceptions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Jinguang; Reid, Scott A.

2013-01-01

The public expression of opinions (and related communicative activities) hinges upon the perception of opinion consensus. Current explanations for opinion consensus perceptions typically focus on egocentric and other biases, rather than functional cognitions. Using self-categorization theory we showed that opinion consensus perceptions flow from…

Nonconsensus opinion model on directed networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qu, Bo; Li, Qian; Havlin, Shlomo; Stanley, H. Eugene; Wang, Huijuan

2014-11-01

Dynamic social opinion models have been widely studied on undirected networks, and most of them are based on spin interaction models that produce a consensus. In reality, however, many networks such as Twitter and the World Wide Web are directed and are composed of both unidirectional and bidirectional links. Moreover, from choosing a coffee brand to deciding who to vote for in an election, two or more competing opinions often coexist. In response to this ubiquity of directed networks and the coexistence of two or more opinions in decision-making situations, we study a nonconsensus opinion model introduced by Shao et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 103, 018701 (2009), 10.1103/PhysRevLett.103.018701] on directed networks. We define directionality ξ as the percentage of unidirectional links in a network, and we use the linear correlation coefficient ρ between the in-degree and out-degree of a node to quantify the relation between the in-degree and out-degree. We introduce two degree-preserving rewiring approaches which allow us to construct directed networks that can have a broad range of possible combinations of directionality ξ and linear correlation coefficient ρ and to study how ξ and ρ impact opinion competitions. We find that, as the directionality ξ or the in-degree and out-degree correlation ρ increases, the majority opinion becomes more dominant and the minority opinion's ability to survive is lowered.

Teachers' opinion about learning continuum based on student's level of competence and specific pedagogical material in classification topics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andriani, Aldina Eka; Subali, Bambang

2017-08-01

This research discusses learning continuum development for designing a curriculum. The objective of this study is to gather the opinion of public junior and senior high school teachers about learning continuum based on student's level of competence and specific pedagogical material in classification topics. This research was conducted in Yogyakarta province from October 2016 to January 2017. This research utilizes a descriptive survey method. Respondents in this study consist of 281 science teachers at junior and senior high school in Yogyakarta city and 4 regencies namely Sleman, Bantul, Kulonprogo, and Gunung Kidul. The sample were taken using a census. The collection of data used questionnaire that had been validated from the aspects of construct validity and experts judgements. Data were analyzed using a descriptive analysis technique. The results of the analysis show that the opinions of teachers regarding specific pedagogical material in classification topics of living things at the junior high school taught in grade VII to the ability level of C2 (Understanding). At senior high school level, it is taught in grade X with the ability level C2 (Understanding). Based on these results, it can be concluded that the opinions of teachers still refer to the current syllabus and curriculum so that the teachers do not have pure opinions about the student's competence level in classification topics that should be taught at the level of the grade in accordance with the level of corresponding competency.

38 CFR 14.507 - Opinions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... involving veterans' benefits under laws administered by the Department of Veterans Affairs shall be... been a material change in controlling statute or regulation, a superseding written legal opinion by the... in the Office of the General Counsel. Written legal opinions involving veterans' benefits under laws...

The Expert Mathematician. Revised. What Works Clearinghouse Intervention Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

What Works Clearinghouse, 2006

2006-01-01

"The Expert Mathematician" is designed to help middle school students develop the thinking processes for mathematical applications and communication. A three-year program of instruction, "The Expert Mathematician" uses a software and consumable print materials package with 196 lessons that teach the "Logo" programming…

Anisotropic opinion dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neirotti, Juan

2016-07-01

We consider the process of opinion formation in a society of interacting agents, where there is a set B of socially accepted rules. In this scenario, we observed that agents, represented by simple feed-forward, adaptive neural networks, may have a conservative attitude (mostly in agreement with B ) or liberal attitude (mostly in agreement with neighboring agents) depending on how much their opinions are influenced by their peers. The topology of the network representing the interaction of the society's members is determined by a graph, where the agents' properties are defined over the vertexes and the interagent interactions are defined over the bonds. The adaptability of the agents allows us to model the formation of opinions as an online learning process, where agents learn continuously as new information becomes available to the whole society (online learning). Through the application of statistical mechanics techniques we deduced a set of differential equations describing the dynamics of the system. We observed that by slowly varying the average peer influence in such a way that the agents attitude changes from conservative to liberal and back, the average social opinion develops a hysteresis cycle. Such hysteretic behavior disappears when the variance of the social influence distribution is large enough. In all the cases studied, the change from conservative to liberal behavior is characterized by the emergence of conservative clusters, i.e., a closed knitted set of society members that follow a leader who agrees with the social status quo when the rule B is challenged.

Opinion evolution in different social acquaintance networks.

PubMed

Chen, Xi; Zhang, Xiao; Wu, Zhan; Wang, Hongwei; Wang, Guohua; Li, Wei

2017-11-01

Social acquaintance networks influenced by social culture and social policy have a great impact on public opinion evolution in daily life. Based on the differences between socio-culture and social policy, three different social acquaintance networks (kinship-priority acquaintance network, independence-priority acquaintance network, and hybrid acquaintance network) incorporating heredity proportion p h and variation proportion p v are proposed in this paper. Numerical experiments are conducted to investigate network topology and different phenomena during opinion evolution, using the Deffuant model. We found that in kinship-priority acquaintance networks, similar to the Chinese traditional acquaintance networks, opinions always achieve fragmentation, resulting in the formation of multiple large clusters and many small clusters due to the fact that individuals believe more in their relatives and live in a relatively closed environment. In independence-priority acquaintance networks, similar to Western acquaintance networks, the results are similar to those in the kinship-priority acquaintance network. In hybrid acquaintance networks, similar to the Chinese modern acquaintance networks, only a few clusters are formed indicating that in modern China, opinions are more likely to reach consensus on a large scale. These results are similar to the opinion evolution phenomena in modern society, proving the rationality and applicability of network models combined with social culture and policy. We also found a threshold curve p v +2p h =2.05 in the results for the final opinion clusters and evolution time. Above the threshold curve, opinions could easily reach consensus. Based on the above experimental results, a culture-policy-driven mechanism for the opinion dynamic is worth promoting in this paper, that is, opinion dynamics can be driven by different social cultures and policies through the influence of heredity and variation in interpersonal relationship networks. This

Opinions about Child Corporal Punishment and Influencing Factors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bell, Tessa; Romano, Elisa

2012-01-01

The use of corporal punishment has been linked to negative developmental outcomes for children. Despite this finding, Section 43 of the Canadian Criminal Code permits the use of corporal punishment by parents for children 2 to 12 years of age. Therefore, this study's first objective is to investigate opinions toward Section 43 and spanking more…

External validation of the HIT Expert Probability (HEP) score.

PubMed

Joseph, Lee; Gomes, Marcelo P V; Al Solaiman, Firas; St John, Julie; Ozaki, Asuka; Raju, Manjunath; Dhariwal, Manoj; Kim, Esther S H

2015-03-01

The diagnosis of heparin-induced thrombocytopenia (HIT) can be challenging. The HIT Expert Probability (HEP) Score has recently been proposed to aid in the diagnosis of HIT. We sought to externally and prospectively validate the HEP score. We prospectively assessed pre-test probability of HIT for 51 consecutive patients referred to our Consultative Service for evaluation of possible HIT between August 1, 2012 and February 1, 2013. Two Vascular Medicine fellows independently applied the 4T and HEP scores for each patient. Two independent HIT expert adjudicators rendered a diagnosis of HIT likely or unlikely. The median (interquartile range) of 4T and HEP scores were 4.5 (3.0, 6.0) and 5 (3.0, 8.5), respectively. There were no significant differences between area under receiver-operating characteristic curves of 4T and HEP scores against the gold standard, confirmed HIT [defined as positive serotonin release assay and positive anti-PF4/heparin ELISA] (0.74 vs 0.73, p = 0.97). HEP score ≥ 2 was 100 % sensitive and 16 % specific for determining the presence of confirmed HIT while a 4T score > 3 was 93 % sensitive and 35 % specific. In conclusion, the HEP and 4T scores are excellent screening pre-test probability models for HIT, however, in this prospective validation study, test characteristics for the diagnosis of HIT based on confirmatory laboratory testing and expert opinion are similar. Given the complexity of the HEP scoring model compared to that of the 4T score, further validation of the HEP score is warranted prior to widespread clinical acceptance.

Origins of suicidality: compatibility of lay and expert beliefs - qualitative study.

PubMed

Zadravec, Tina; Grad, Onja

2013-06-01

Today there exist different views on origins of suicidal behaviour, which can influence the help-seeking behaviour and the adherence to the treatment of suicidal people. The beliefs lay people and patients have about the origins of suicidal behaviour as well as the compatibility of their beliefs with the views of the mental health personnel (general practitioners and psychiatrists) were assessed. 45 semi-structured interviews with the general population, suicide attempters, general practitioners and psychiatrists were conducted, audio typed, transcribed and a thematic analysis of the data was carried out. The results indicated the incompatibility of the views. The general population and the suicide attempters favoured psychological explanations of suicidal behaviour, whereas the general practitioners and psychiatrists promoted medical explanations. The only common theme was perception of the suicidal crisis as a crucial factor in suicidality. Lay people and experts believe that suicidal crisis is the main origin of suicidal behaviour. The awareness of this common denominator and also of the differences in opinions between lay people and experts should be kept in mind when planning and implementing prevention and treatment programmes if we wish to promote help-seeking behaviour and attain good adherence to treatment.

Opinion Dynamics with Disagreement and Modulated Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sîrbu, Alina; Loreto, Vittorio; Servedio, Vito D. P.; Tria, Francesca

2013-04-01

Opinion dynamics concerns social processes through which populations or groups of individuals agree or disagree on specific issues. As such, modelling opinion dynamics represents an important research area that has been progressively acquiring relevance in many different domains. Existing approaches have mostly represented opinions through discrete binary or continuous variables by exploring a whole panoply of cases: e.g. independence, noise, external effects, multiple issues. In most of these cases the crucial ingredient is an attractive dynamics through which similar or similar enough agents get closer. Only rarely the possibility of explicit disagreement has been taken into account (i.e., the possibility for a repulsive interaction among individuals' opinions), and mostly for discrete or 1-dimensional opinions, through the introduction of additional model parameters. Here we introduce a new model of opinion formation, which focuses on the interplay between the possibility of explicit disagreement, modulated in a self-consistent way by the existing opinions' overlaps between the interacting individuals, and the effect of external information on the system. Opinions are modelled as a vector of continuous variables related to multiple possible choices for an issue. Information can be modulated to account for promoting multiple possible choices. Numerical results show that extreme information results in segregation and has a limited effect on the population, while milder messages have better success and a cohesion effect. Additionally, the initial condition plays an important role, with the population forming one or multiple clusters based on the initial average similarity between individuals, with a transition point depending on the number of opinion choices.

Identifying opinion leaders to promote behavior change.

PubMed

Valente, Thomas W; Pumpuang, Patchareeya

2007-12-01

This article reviews 10 techniques used to identify opinion leaders to promote behavior change. Opinion leaders can act as gatekeepers for interventions, help change social norms, and accelerate behavior change. Few studies document the manner in which opinion leaders are identified, recruited, and trained to promote health. The authors categorize close to 200 studies that have studied or used opinion leaders to promote behavior change into 10 different methods. They present the advantages and disadvantages of the 10 opinion leader identification methods and provide sample instruments for each. Factors that might influence programs to select one or another method are then discussed, and the article closes with a discussion of combining and comparing methods.

How Public Opinion is Formed

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Block, Edward M.

1977-01-01

Investigates the evolution of the definition of public relations by examining cultural and personal determinants of public opinion. Outlines functions of communicators and opinionmakers in forming and influencing public opinion. Available from: Public Relations Review, Ray Hiebert, Dean, College of Journalism, University of Maryland, College Park,…

[Cost of lost productivity in pharmacoeconomics analysis. Part II. Survey in the expert group].

PubMed

Wrona, Witold; Hermanowski, Tomasz; Jakubczyk, Michał; Golicki, Dominik; Czech, Marcin; Niewada, Maciej; Kolasa, Katarzyna

2011-01-01

The aim of the survey was to collect data on practice and preferences of decision-makers and experts in health economics concerning the role of indirect costs in Poland. The questionnaire contained 18 questions covering the need for indirect costs calculation in economic evaluations and measures used to calculate indirect cost. Fifty four respondents related to health economics returned completed questionnaires. Mean age of respondents was 33,3 years; mean experience in health economics 4.7 years; 43% (23/54) of responders had non-economic background; 30% each were users and doers of health technology assessment reports. All (excluding one) responders indicated that indirect costs should be calculated in pharmacoeconomic studies. Twenty three (i.e., 43%) responders indicated human capital approach as the best method to estimate costs from societal perspective; friction cost method came second best 11%; 42% respondents had no opinion. The doers of economics evaluations pointed to GDP per capita (61%, 11/18), average salary (61%, 11/18), and costs of sick pay or injury benefit (61%, 11/18) as measures which could be used to value production losses. Indirect costs are considered important component of economic evaluations of healthcare interventions in Poland. The lack of widely accepted methods for indirect cost evaluation support further research.

Expert system technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prince, Mary Ellen

1987-01-01

The expert system is a computer program which attempts to reproduce the problem-solving behavior of an expert, who is able to view problems from a broad perspective and arrive at conclusions rapidly, using intuition, shortcuts, and analogies to previous situations. Expert systems are a departure from the usual artificial intelligence approach to problem solving. Researchers have traditionally tried to develop general modes of human intelligence that could be applied to many different situations. Expert systems, on the other hand, tend to rely on large quantities of domain specific knowledge, much of it heuristic. The reasoning component of the system is relatively simple and straightforward. For this reason, expert systems are often called knowledge based systems. The report expands on the foregoing. Section 1 discusses the architecture of a typical expert system. Section 2 deals with the characteristics that make a problem a suitable candidate for expert system solution. Section 3 surveys current technology, describing some of the software aids available for expert system development. Section 4 discusses the limitations of the latter. The concluding section makes predictions of future trends.

An expert assessment on climate change and health - with a European focus on lungs and allergies.

PubMed

Forsberg, Bertil; Bråbäck, Lennart; Keune, Hans; Kobernus, Mike; Krayer von Krauss, Martin; Yang, Aileen; Bartonova, Alena

2012-06-28

For almost 20 years, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has been assessing the potential health risks associated with climate change; with increasingly convincing evidence that climate change presents existing impacts on human health. In industrialized countries climate change may further affect public health and in particular respiratory health, through existing health stressors, including, anticipated increased number of deaths and acute morbidity due to heat waves; increased frequency of cardiopulmonary events due to higher concentrations of air pollutants; and altered spatial and temporal distribution of allergens and some infectious disease vectors. Additionally exposure to moulds and contaminants from water damaged buildings may increase. We undertook an expert elicitation amongst European researchers engaged in environmental medicine or respiratory health. All experts were actively publishing researchers on lung disease and air pollution, climate and health or a closely related research. We conducted an online questionnaire on proposed causal diagrams and determined levels of confidence that climate change will have an impact on a series of stressors. In a workshop following the online questionnaire, half of the experts further discussed the results and reasons for differences in assessments of the state of knowledge on exposures and health effects. Out of 16 experts, 100% expressed high to very high confidence that climate change would increase the frequency of heat waves. At least half expressed high or very high confidence that climate change would increase levels of pollen (50%), particulate matter (PM2.5) (55%), and ozone (70%). While clarity is needed around the impacts of increased exposures to health impacts of some stressors, including ozone and particulate matter levels, it was noted that definitive knowledge is not a prerequisite for policy action. Information to the public, preventive measures, monitoring and warning systems were among

Weather forecasting expert system study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1985-01-01

Weather forecasting is critical to both the Space Transportation System (STS) ground operations and the launch/landing activities at NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The current launch frequency places significant demands on the USAF weather forecasters at the Cape Canaveral Forecasting Facility (CCFF), who currently provide the weather forecasting for all STS operations. As launch frequency increases, KSC's weather forecasting problems will be great magnified. The single most important problem is the shortage of highly skilled forecasting personnel. The development of forecasting expertise is difficult and requires several years of experience. Frequent personnel changes within the forecasting staff jeopardize the accumulation and retention of experience-based weather forecasting expertise. The primary purpose of this project was to assess the feasibility of using Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques to ameliorate this shortage of experts by capturing aria incorporating the forecasting knowledge of current expert forecasters into a Weather Forecasting Expert System (WFES) which would then be made available to less experienced duty forecasters.

28 CFR 80.11 - Effect of FCPA Opinion.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Effect of FCPA Opinion. 80.11 Section 80.11 Judicial Administration DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE (CONTINUED) FOREIGN CORRUPT PRACTICES ACT OPINION PROCEDURE § 80.11 Effect of FCPA Opinion. Except as specified in § 80.10, an FCPA Opinion will not bind or...

Experts' opinion about the primary headache diagnostic criteria of the ICHD-3rd edition beta in children and adolescents.

PubMed

Özge, Aynur; Faedda, Noemi; Abu-Arafeh, Ishaq; Gelfand, Amy A; Goadsby, Peter James; Cuvellier, Jean Christophe; Valeriani, Massimiliano; Sergeev, Alexey; Barlow, Karen; Uludüz, Derya; Yalın, Osman Özgür; Lipton, Richard B; Rapoport, Alan; Guidetti, Vincenzo

2017-11-23

The 2013 International Classification of Headache Disorders-3 (ICHD-3) was published in a beta version to allow the clinicians to confirm the validity of the criteria or to suggest improvements based on field studies. The aim of this work was to review the Primary Headache Disorders Section of ICHD-3 beta data on children and adolescents (age 0-18 years), and to suggest changes, additions, and amendments. Several experts in childhood headache across the world applied different aspects of ICHD-3 beta in their normal clinical practice. Based on their personal experience and the literature available on pediatric headache, they made observations and proposed suggestions for the primary headache disorders section of ICHD-3 beta data on children and adolescents. Some headache disorders in children have specific features which are different from those seen in adults and which should be acknowledged and considered. Some features in children were found to be age-dependent: clinical characteristics, risks factors and etiologies have a strong bio psycho-social basis in children and adolescents making primary headache disorders in children distinct from those in adults. Several recommendations are presented in order to make ICHD-3 more appropriate for use with children.

Quality of courses evaluated by 'predictions' rather than opinions: Fewer respondents needed for similar results.

PubMed

Cohen-Schotanus, Janke; Schönrock-Adema, Johanna; Schmidt, Henk G

2010-01-01

A well-known problem with student surveys is a too low response rate. Experiences with predicting electoral outcomes, which required much smaller sample sizes, inspired us to adopt a similar approach to course evaluation. We expected that having respondents estimate the average opinions of their peers required fewer respondents for comparable outcomes than giving own opinions. Two course evaluation studies were performed among successive first-year medical students (N = 380 and 450, respectively). Study 1: Half the cohort gave opinions on nine questions, while the other half predicted the average outcomes. A prize was offered for the three best predictions (motivational remedy). Study 2: Half the cohort gave opinions, a quarter made predictions without a prize and a quarter made predictions with previous year's results as prior knowledge (cognitive remedy). The numbers of respondents required for stable outcomes were determined following an iterative process. Differences between numbers of respondents required and between average scores were analysed with ANOVA. In both studies, the prediction conditions required significantly fewer respondents (p < 0.001) for comparable outcomes. The informed prediction condition required the fewest respondents (N < 20). Problems with response rates can be reduced by asking respondents to predict evaluation outcomes rather than giving opinions.

28 CFR 80.8 - Attorney General opinion.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Attorney General opinion. 80.8 Section 80.8 Judicial Administration DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE (CONTINUED) FOREIGN CORRUPT PRACTICES ACT OPINION PROCEDURE § 80.8 Attorney General opinion. The Attorney General or his designee shall, within 30 days after...

Students' Knowledge, Opinions, and Behaviors Concerning Dental Informatics and Computer Applications.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lang, W. Paul; And Others

1992-01-01

A survey of 95 first-year and 91 fourth-year dental students concerning informatics and computer applications in dentistry investigated knowledge of terms and concepts related to hardware, software, electronic communication, and dental applications; opinions concerning use of the technology; and extent of experience in 4 areas of use. (MSE)

Estimating unknown parameters in haemophilia using expert judgement elicitation.

PubMed

Fischer, K; Lewandowski, D; Janssen, M P

2013-09-01

The increasing attention to healthcare costs and treatment efficiency has led to an increasing demand for quantitative data concerning patient and treatment characteristics in haemophilia. However, most of these data are difficult to obtain. The aim of this study was to use expert judgement elicitation (EJE) to estimate currently unavailable key parameters for treatment models in severe haemophilia A. Using a formal expert elicitation procedure, 19 international experts provided information on (i) natural bleeding frequency according to age and onset of bleeding, (ii) treatment of bleeds, (iii) time needed to control bleeding after starting secondary prophylaxis, (iv) dose requirements for secondary prophylaxis according to onset of bleeding, and (v) life-expectancy. For each parameter experts provided their quantitative estimates (median, P10, P90), which were combined using a graphical method. In addition, information was obtained concerning key decision parameters of haemophilia treatment. There was most agreement between experts regarding bleeding frequencies for patients treated on demand with an average onset of joint bleeding (1.7 years): median 12 joint bleeds per year (95% confidence interval 0.9-36) for patients ≤ 18, and 11 (0.8-61) for adult patients. Less agreement was observed concerning estimated effective dose for secondary prophylaxis in adults: median 2000 IU every other day The majority (63%) of experts expected that a single minor joint bleed could cause irreversible damage, and would accept up to three minor joint bleeds or one trauma related joint bleed annually on prophylaxis. Expert judgement elicitation allowed structured capturing of quantitative expert estimates. It generated novel data to be used in computer modelling, clinical care, and trial design. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Breast carcinoma during pregnancy. International recommendations from an expert meeting.

PubMed

Loibl, Sibylle; von Minckwitz, Gunter; Gwyn, Karin; Ellis, Paul; Blohmer, Jens U; Schlegelberger, Brigitte; Keller, Monika; Harder, Sebastian; Theriault, Richard L; Crivellari, Diana; Klingebiel, Thomas; Louwen, Frank; Kaufmann, Manfred

2006-01-15

Breast carcinoma during pregnancy (BCP) is a difficult clinical situation, as it appears to put the health of the mother in conflict with that of the fetus. An international expert meeting was conducted to form guidelines on how to diagnose and treat women with BCP. The goal for treatment of the pregnant woman with breast carcinoma is the same as that of the nonpregnant breast carcinoma patient: local control of disease and prevention of systemic metastases. However, certain treatment modalities need to be modified because of the potential for adverse effects on the fetus. There is evidence to support the safety of anthracycline-based chemotherapy during the second and third trimesters of pregnancy (Oxford Level of Evidence [LOE] 2b). Because of the lack of evidence, the expert opinion was not to recommend the routine use of newer cytotoxic drugs like the taxanes during pregnancy (LOE 5). The recommendations provided should help to reach informed decision making by the patient. The ongoing prospective collection of data on BCP, such as that at the University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center (UTMDACC) and that of the German Breast Group/Breast International Group (GBG/BIG), is necessary to further our knowledge regarding the treatment of this unique group of breast carcinoma patients.

Multidisciplinary expert discussion. Uncontrolled asthma: causes, consequences and possible solutions

PubMed

Plaza, V; Quirce, S; Delgado, J; Martinez Moragón, E; Pérez de Llano, L

2016-11-21

Background. Numerous studies conclude that about half of the asthmatic population is not well controlled. The aim of this study was to discuss causes, consequences and possible solutions of uncontrolled asthma (UCA). Methods. Discussion amongst asthma experts from the fields of Pneumology, Allergy and Primary Care, structured in three phases: 1) survey to get the opinion of participants involved in different areas of UCA; 2) expert meeting, in which the results of the survey were discussed, and the diagnosis, treatment and monitoring of UCA were presented and discussed; and, 3) with the main findings, 83 items were formulated and subjected to consensus among all participants through the Delphi method. Results. There was consensus on 86.7% of the items in the Delphi questionnaire, mostly in terms of agreement. Conclusions. The UCA analysis results show the need for future improvement in the following areas: to incorporate clinical performance protocols into asthma CPG to identify aggravating factors and comorbidities; to develop an inexpensive and easy-to-use tool to identify adherence; to establish patient phenotype; to analyse treatment side effects and to provide personalized treatment, especially assessing its efficacy and safety (symptom control and future risks). It is necessary to generate new evidence to determine additional tests to be used to monitor these patients.

Expert Seeker

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fernandez, Becerra

2003-01-01

Expert Seeker is a computer program of the knowledge-management-system (KMS) type that falls within the category of expertise-locator systems. The main goal of the KMS system implemented by Expert Seeker is to organize and distribute knowledge of who are the domain experts within and without a given institution, company, or other organization. The intent in developing this KMS was to enable the re-use of organizational knowledge and provide a methodology for querying existing information (including structured, semistructured, and unstructured information) in a way that could help identify organizational experts. More specifically, Expert Seeker was developed to make it possible, by use of an intranet, to do any or all of the following: Assist an employee in identifying who has the skills needed for specific projects and to determine whether the experts so identified are available. Assist managers in identifying employees who may need training opportunities. Assist managers in determining what expertise is lost when employees retire or otherwise leave. Facilitate the development of new ways of identifying opportunities for innovation and minimization of duplicated efforts. Assist employees in achieving competitive advantages through the application of knowledge-management concepts and related systems. Assist external organizations in requesting speakers for specific engagements or determining from whom they might be able to request help via electronic mail. Help foster an environment of collaboration for rapid development in today's environment, in which it is increasingly necessary to assemble teams of experts from government, universities, research laboratories, and industries, to quickly solve problems anytime, anywhere. Make experts more visible. Provide a central repository of information about employees, including information that, heretofore, has typically not been captured by the human-resources systems (e.g., information about past projects, patents, or

Innovation on Energy Power Technology (22)Challenge to Development of Expert System stored Knowledge of Expert Power Network Operators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakaguchi, Hideharu

Do you remember an expert system? I think there are various impressions about the system. For example, some might say “It reminds me of old days”. On the other hand, some might say “It was really troublesome”. About 25 years ago, from late 1980s to the middle of 1990s, when the Showa era was about to change into the Heisei Era, artificial intelligence boomed. Research and development for an expert system which was equipped with expertise and worked as smart as expert, was advanced in various fields. Our company also picked up the system as the new system which covered weak point of conventional computer technology. We started research and development in 1984, and installed an expert system in a SCADA system, which started operating in March 1990 in the Fukuoka Integrated Control Center. In this essay, as an electric power engineer who involved in development at that time, I introduce the situation and travail story about developing an expert system which support restorative actions from the outage and overload condition of power networks.

Detecting malingering: a survey of experts' practices.

PubMed

Slick, Daniel J; Tan, Jing E; Strauss, Esther H; Hultsch, David F

2004-06-01

A survey addressing practices of 'expert' neuropsychologists in handling financial compensation claim or personal injury litigation cases was carried out. Potential participants were identified by publication history. Responses were obtained from 24 out of the 39 neuropsychologists who were surveyed. Approximately 79% of the respondents reported using at least one specialized technique for detecting malingering in every litigant assessment. Half stated that they always give specialized tests at the beginning of the assessment. The Rey 15-Item test and the Test of Memory Malingering were the most frequently reported measures. Respondents also reported frequent use of 'malingering' indexes from standard neuropsychological tests. Reported base-rates varied, but the majority of respondents indicated that at least 10% of the litigants they assessed in the last year were definitely malingering. Respondents were split on the practice of routinely giving warnings at the outset of assessments that suboptimal performance may be detected. However, when the client's motivational status was suspect, more than half (58.3%) altered their assessment routine at least on some occasions, by encouraging good effort (70.8%) or administering additional SVTs. A minority directly confronted or warned clients (25%), terminated the examination earlier than planned (16.6%), or contacted the referring attorney immediately (29.2%). Respondents almost always stated some opinion regarding indicators of invalidity in written reports (95%). However, 41.7% rarely used the term 'malingering' and 12.5% never used the term. Most respondents (>80%) instead stated that the test results are invalid, inconsistent with the severity of the injury or indicative of exaggeration. Copyright 2003 National Academy of Neuropsychology

Nurses' expert opinions of workplace interventions for a healthy working environment: a Delphi survey.

PubMed

Doran, Diane; Clarke, Sean; Hayes, Laureen; Nincic, Vera

2014-09-01

Much has been written about interventions to improve the nursing work environment, yet little is known about their effectiveness. A Delphi survey of nurse experts was conducted to explore perceptions about workplace interventions in terms of feasibility and likelihood of positive impact on nurse outcomes such as job satisfaction and nurse retention. The interventions that received the highest ratings for likelihood of positive impact included: bedside handover to improve communication at shift report and promote patient-centred care; training program for nurses in dealing with violent or aggressive behaviour; development of charge nurse leadership team; training program focused on creating peer-supportive atmospheres and group cohesion; and schedule that recognizes work balance and family demands. The overall findings are consistent with the literature that highlights the importance of communication and teamwork, nurse health and safety, staffing and scheduling practices, professional development and leadership and mentorship. Nursing researchers and decision-makers should work in collaboration to implement and evaluate interventions for promoting practice environments characterized by effective communication and teamwork, professional growth and adequate support for the health and well-being of nurses.

Reliability of clinical guideline development using mail-only versus in-person expert panels.

PubMed

Washington, Donna L; Bernstein, Steven J; Kahan, James P; Leape, Lucian L; Kamberg, Caren J; Shekelle, Paul G

2003-12-01

Clinical practice guidelines quickly become outdated. One reason they might not be updated as often as needed is the expense of collecting expert judgment regarding the evidence. The RAND-UCLA Appropriateness Method is one commonly used method for collecting expert opinion. We tested whether a less expensive, mail-only process could substitute for the standard in-person process normally used. We performed a 4-way replication of the appropriateness panel process for coronary revascularization and hysterectomy, conducting 3 panels using the conventional in-person method and 1 panel entirely by mail. All indications were classified as inappropriate or not (to evaluate overuse), and coronary revascularization indications were classified as necessary or not (to evaluate underuse). Kappa statistics were calculated for the comparison in ratings from the 2 methods. Agreement beyond chance between the 2 panel methods ranged from moderate to substantial. The kappa statistic to detect overuse was 0.57 for coronary revascularization and 0.70 for hysterectomy. The kappa statistic to detect coronary revascularization underuse was 0.76. There were no cases in which coronary revascularization was considered inappropriate by 1 method, but necessary or appropriate by the other. Three of 636 (0.5%) hysterectomy cases were categorized as inappropriate by 1 method but appropriate by the other. The reproducibility of the overuse and underuse assessments from the mail-only compared with the conventional in-person conduct of expert panels in this application was similar to the underlying reproducibility of the process. This suggests a potential role for updating guidelines using an expert judgment process conducted entirely through the mail.

Identifying Opinion Leaders to Promote Behavior Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Valente, Thomas W.; Pumpuang, Patchareeya

2007-01-01

This article reviews 10 techniques used to identify opinion leaders to promote behavior change. Opinion leaders can act as gatekeepers for interventions, help change social norms, and accelerate behavior change. Few studies document the manner in which opinion leaders are identified, recruited, and trained to promote health. The authors categorize…

[First results of a German second opinion program show high patient satisfaction and large discrepancies between initial therapy recommendations and second opinion].

PubMed

Weyerstraß, Jan; Prediger, Barbara; Neugebauer, Edmund; Pieper, Dawid

2018-02-23

Although legally anchored, there are no empirical results from German second opinion programs. In this study, various aspects within a population of a second opinion program are examined. In this study patients were analyzed who sought a second opinion in the period from August 2011 to December 2016. Differences in patient characteristics, differentiated by agreement of first and second opinion, were analyzed using multivariate logistic regression. Patients' satisfaction and quality of life were examined one, three and six months after obtaining the second opinion. In total, 1,414 patients sought a second opinion. Most frequent medical indications were the knee (38.7 %), the back (26.8 %), the hip (11.7 %), and the shoulder (10.2 %). Except for the indication (p=0.035), no patient characteristic had influence on the conformation of the second opinion. Approximately two out of three initial recommendations were not confirmed by the specialists. 89 % of the patients were satisfied or very satisfied with the second opinion and the service offered. The second opinion offers patients the opportunity to seek an additional independent medical opinion and thus provide support for decision making. Further research is needed to examine the reasons for the high discrepancies between the first and second opinions. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

Testing expert systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chang, C. L.; Stachowitz, R. A.

1988-01-01

Software quality is of primary concern in all large-scale expert system development efforts. Building appropriate validation and test tools for ensuring software reliability of expert systems is therefore required. The Expert Systems Validation Associate (EVA) is a validation system under development at the Lockheed Artificial Intelligence Center. EVA provides a wide range of validation and test tools to check correctness, consistency, and completeness of an expert system. Testing a major function of EVA. It means executing an expert system with test cases with the intent of finding errors. In this paper, we describe many different types of testing such as function-based testing, structure-based testing, and data-based testing. We describe how appropriate test cases may be selected in order to perform good and thorough testing of an expert system.

Opinion dynamics in a group-based society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gargiulo, F.; Huet, S.

2010-09-01

Many models have been proposed to analyze the evolution of opinion structure due to the interaction of individuals in their social environment. Such models analyze the spreading of ideas both in completely interacting backgrounds and on social networks, where each person has a finite set of interlocutors. In this paper we analyze the reciprocal feedback between the opinions of the individuals and the structure of the interpersonal relationships at the level of community structures. For this purpose we define a group-based random network and we study how this structure co-evolves with opinion dynamics processes. We observe that the adaptive network structure affects the opinion dynamics process helping the consensus formation. The results also show interesting behaviors in regards to the size distribution of the groups and their correlation with opinion structure.

Combining analytical hierarchy process and agglomerative hierarchical clustering in search of expert consensus in green corridors development management.

PubMed

Shapira, Aviad; Shoshany, Maxim; Nir-Goldenberg, Sigal

2013-07-01

Environmental management and planning are instrumental in resolving conflicts arising between societal needs for economic development on the one hand and for open green landscapes on the other hand. Allocating green corridors between fragmented core green areas may provide a partial solution to these conflicts. Decisions regarding green corridor development require the assessment of alternative allocations based on multiple criteria evaluations. Analytical Hierarchy Process provides a methodology for both a structured and consistent extraction of such evaluations and for the search for consensus among experts regarding weights assigned to the different criteria. Implementing this methodology using 15 Israeli experts-landscape architects, regional planners, and geographers-revealed inherent differences in expert opinions in this field beyond professional divisions. The use of Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering allowed to identify clusters representing common decisions regarding criterion weights. Aggregating the evaluations of these clusters revealed an important dichotomy between a pragmatist approach that emphasizes the weight of statutory criteria and an ecological approach that emphasizes the role of the natural conditions in allocating green landscape corridors.

Applications of flow-networks to opinion-dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tupikina, Liubov; Kurths, Jürgen

2015-04-01

Networks were successfully applied to describe complex systems, such as brain, climate, processes in society. Recently a socio-physical problem of opinion-dynamics was studied using network techniques. We present the toy-model of opinion-formation based on the physical model of advection-diffusion. We consider spreading of the opinion on the fixed subject, assuming that opinion on society is binary: if person has opinion then the state of the node in the society-network equals 1, if the person doesn't have opinion state of the node equals 0. Opinion can be spread from one person to another if they know each other, or in the network-terminology, if the nodes are connected. We include into the system governed by advection-diffusion equation the external field to model such effects as for instance influence from media. The assumptions for our model can be formulated as the following: 1.the node-states are influenced by the network structure in such a way, that opinion can be spread only between adjacent nodes (the advective term of the opinion-dynamics), 2.the network evolution can have two scenarios: -network topology is not changing with time; -additional links can appear or disappear each time-step with fixed probability which requires adaptive networks properties. Considering these assumptions for our system we obtain the system of equations describing our model-dynamics which corresponds well to other socio-physics models, for instance, the model of the social cohesion and the famous voter-model. We investigate the behavior of the suggested model studying "waiting time" of the system, time to get to the stable state, stability of the model regimes for different values of model parameters and network topology.

Epidemic spreading in multiplex networks influenced by opinion exchanges on vaccination.

PubMed

Alvarez-Zuzek, Lucila G; La Rocca, Cristian E; Iglesias, José R; Braunstein, Lidia A

2017-01-01

Through years, the use of vaccines has always been a controversial issue. People in a society may have different opinions about how beneficial the vaccines are and as a consequence some of those individuals decide to vaccinate or not themselves and their relatives. This attitude in face of vaccines has clear consequences in the spread of diseases and their transformation in epidemics. Motivated by this scenario, we study, in a simultaneous way, the changes of opinions about vaccination together with the evolution of a disease. In our model we consider a multiplex network consisting of two layers. One of the layers corresponds to a social network where people share their opinions and influence others opinions. The social model that rules the dynamic is the M-model, which takes into account two different processes that occurs in a society: persuasion and compromise. This two processes are related through a parameter r, r < 1 describes a moderate and committed society, for r > 1 the society tends to have extremist opinions, while r = 1 represents a neutral society. This social network may be of real or virtual contacts. On the other hand, the second layer corresponds to a network of physical contacts where the disease spreading is described by the SIR-Model. In this model the individuals may be in one of the following four states: Susceptible (S), Infected(I), Recovered (R) or Vaccinated (V). A Susceptible individual can: i) get vaccinated, if his opinion in the other layer is totally in favor of the vaccine, ii) get infected, with probability β if he is in contact with an infected neighbor. Those I individuals recover after a certain period tr = 6. Vaccinated individuals have an extremist positive opinion that does not change. We consider that the vaccine has a certain effectiveness ω and as a consequence vaccinated nodes can be infected with probability β(1 - ω) if they are in contact with an infected neighbor. In this case, if the infection process is

Object-oriented knowledge representation for expert systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scott, Stephen L.

1991-01-01

Object oriented techniques have generated considerable interest in the Artificial Intelligence (AI) community in recent years. This paper discusses an approach for representing expert system knowledge using classes, objects, and message passing. The implementation is in version 4.3 of NASA's C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS), an expert system tool that does not provide direct support for object oriented design. The method uses programmer imposed conventions and keywords to structure facts, and rules to provide object oriented capabilities.

Expert Systems: An Overview.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Adiga, Sadashiv

1984-01-01

Discusses: (1) the architecture of expert systems; (2) features that distinguish expert systems from conventional programs; (3) conditions necessary to select a particular application for the development of successful expert systems; (4) issues to be resolved when building expert systems; and (5) limitations. Examples of selected expert systems…

The Eastern Québec Telepathology Network: a three-year experience of clinical diagnostic services

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The Eastern Quebec Telepathology Network (called Réseau de Télépathologie de l'Est du Québec in French) was created to provide uniform diagnostic telepathology services in a huge territory with low population density. We report our first 3-year experience. Methods The network was funded equally by the Québec ministry of Health and Canada Health Infoway, a federal telehealth funding agency. The coverage includes intraoperative consultations (IOC), expert opinions, urgent analyses and supervision of macroscopic description. The deployment of the equipment and software started in 2010 and clinical activities began in January 2011. This network comprises 24 hospitals providing oncologic surgery, of which 7 have no pathology laboratory and 4 have a pathology laboratory but no pathologist. The real-time gross evaluation during IOC was performed using a macroscopy station and the sample selection was performed distantly by a technician, a pathology assistant or the surgeon under on-site pathologist supervision. Slides were scanned into whole-slide images (WSI). Results As per March 2014, 7,440 slides had been scanned for primary/urgent diagnosis; 1,329 for IOC cases and 2,308 for expert opinions. A 98% concordance rate was found for IOC compared to paraffin material and the average turnaround time was 20 minutes. Expert opinion reports were signed out within 24 hours in 68% of cases and within 72 hours in 85%. A recent multi-method evaluation study of the Network demonstrated that, thanks to telepathology: 1. interruption of IOC service was prevented in hospitals with no pathologist on site; 2. two-stage surgeries and patients transfers were prevented according to surgeons and pathologists; 3. retention and recruitment of surgeons in remote hospitals were facilitated; and 4. professional isolation among pathologists working alone was reduced. This study also demonstrated that wider adoption of telepathology would require technological improvement and that

Expert and competent non-expert visual cues during simulated diagnosis in intensive care.

PubMed

McCormack, Clare; Wiggins, Mark W; Loveday, Thomas; Festa, Marino

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to examine the information acquisition strategies of expert and competent non-expert intensive care physicians during two simulated diagnostic scenarios involving respiratory distress in an infant. Specifically, the information acquisition performance of six experts and 12 competent non-experts was examined using an eye-tracker during the initial 90 s of the assessment of the patient. The results indicated that, in comparison to competent non-experts, experts recorded longer mean fixations, irrespective of the scenario. When the dwell times were examined against specific areas of interest, the results revealed that competent non-experts recorded greater overall dwell times on the nurse, where experts recorded relatively greater dwell times on the head and face of the manikin. In the context of the scenarios, experts recorded differential dwell times, spending relatively more time on the head and face during the seizure scenario than during the coughing scenario. The differences evident between experts and competent non-experts were interpreted as evidence of the relative availability of task-specific cues or heuristics in memory that might direct the process of information acquisition amongst expert physicians. The implications are discussed for the training and assessment of diagnostic skills.

Employee benefits managers' opinions about addiction treatment.

PubMed

McFarland, Bentson H; Lierman, Walter K; Penner, Norman R; McCamant, Lynn E; Zani, Brigid G

2003-01-01

Employee benefits managers arrange addictive disease treatment insurance coverage for the majority of people in the United States but little is known about these decision-makers. Managers were surveyed to learn their opinions about addiction treatment. Subjects were 131 people (61 percent female, 94 percent white, average age 46, average of 14 years in the human resources field). Managers were asked to rank health benefits (physical health, dental, alcohol-drug, vision, mental health, employee assistance program, and pharmaceuticals) on 15 dimensions. Managers ranked alcohol-drug abuse treatment worst on fiveitems and second to the worst on another four of the 15 dimensions. On the item considered most important by the managers, respondents noted that employees often (2.8) ask for improved physical health benefits but rarely do so for alcohol and drug (4.1) benefits (p < .001). Education of workers and payers will be needed to change opinions about treatment of addictive disorders.

OARSI recommendations for the management of hip and knee osteoarthritis, Part II: OARSI evidence-based, expert consensus guidelines.

PubMed

Zhang, W; Moskowitz, R W; Nuki, G; Abramson, S; Altman, R D; Arden, N; Bierma-Zeinstra, S; Brandt, K D; Croft, P; Doherty, M; Dougados, M; Hochberg, M; Hunter, D J; Kwoh, K; Lohmander, L S; Tugwell, P

2008-02-01

To develop concise, patient-focussed, up to date, evidence-based, expert consensus recommendations for the management of hip and knee osteoarthritis (OA), which are adaptable and designed to assist physicians and allied health care professionals in general and specialist practise throughout the world. Sixteen experts from four medical disciplines (primary care, rheumatology, orthopaedics and evidence-based medicine), two continents and six countries (USA, UK, France, Netherlands, Sweden and Canada) formed the guidelines development team. A systematic review of existing guidelines for the management of hip and knee OA published between 1945 and January 2006 was undertaken using the validated appraisal of guidelines research and evaluation (AGREE) instrument. A core set of management modalities was generated based on the agreement between guidelines. Evidence before 2002 was based on a systematic review conducted by European League Against Rheumatism and evidence after 2002 was updated using MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, AMED, the Cochrane Library and HTA reports. The quality of evidence was evaluated, and where possible, effect size (ES), number needed to treat, relative risk or odds ratio and cost per quality-adjusted life years gained were estimated. Consensus recommendations were produced following a Delphi exercise and the strength of recommendation (SOR) for propositions relating to each modality was determined using a visual analogue scale. Twenty-three treatment guidelines for the management of hip and knee OA were identified from the literature search, including six opinion-based, five evidence-based and 12 based on both expert opinion and research evidence. Twenty out of 51 treatment modalities addressed by these guidelines were universally recommended. ES for pain relief varied from treatment to treatment. Overall there was no statistically significant difference between non-pharmacological therapies [0.25, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.16, 0.34] and

Strategies for the prevention of MP3-induced hearing loss among adolescents: expert opinions from a Delphi study.

PubMed

Vogel, Ineke; Brug, Johannes; van der Ploeg, Catharina P B; Raat, Hein

2009-05-01

To identify parties involved in the prevention of MP3-induced hearing loss among adolescents and potentially effective prevention strategies and interventions. Thirty experts in fields such as scientific research, medical practice, community health professions, education, youth work, music entertainment, and enforcement authorities participated in a qualitative, electronic, 3-round, Web-based Delphi study. Multiple parties involved in the prevention of MP3-induced hearing loss among adolescents were identified; the most relevant are the adolescents themselves, their parents, manufacturers of MP3 players and earphones, and the authorities. The experts did not expect that adolescents in general would perform the necessary protective behaviors to prevent MP3-induced hearing loss. Two environmental health protection measures were identified as both relevant and feasible to be implemented (ie, authorities encourage manufacturers to produce safer products, and public health campaigns will be held to improve knowledge of the risks of high-volume music, possible protective measures, and consequences of hearing loss). Authorities, the music industry in general, and especially manufacturers of MP3 players and earphones should recognize their responsibility and create a safer MP3-listening environment by taking measures to protect today's youth from the dangers of listening to high-volume music on MP3 players.

Discrepancy and Disliking Do Not Induce Negative Opinion Shifts

PubMed Central

Flache, Andreas; Mäs, Michael

2016-01-01

Both classical social psychological theories and recent formal models of opinion differentiation and bi-polarization assign a prominent role to negative social influence. Negative influence is defined as shifts away from the opinion of others and hypothesized to be induced by discrepancy with or disliking of the source of influence. There is strong empirical support for the presence of positive social influence (a shift towards the opinion of others), but evidence that large opinion differences or disliking could trigger negative shifts is mixed. We examine positive and negative influence with controlled exposure to opinions of other individuals in one experiment and with opinion exchange in another study. Results confirm that similarities induce attraction, but results do not support that discrepancy or disliking entails negative influence. Instead, our findings suggest a robust positive linear relationship between opinion distance and opinion shifts. PMID:27333160

17 CFR 200.63 - Commission opinions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... AND ETHICS; AND INFORMATION AND REQUESTS Canons of Ethics § 200.63 Commission opinions. The opinions... guided in his decisions by a deep regard for the integrity of the system of law which he administers. He...

32 CFR 1698.2 - Requests for advisory opinions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... ADVISORY OPINIONS § 1698.2 Requests for advisory opinions. (a) Any male born after December 31, 1959 who... advisory opinion as to the liability of any male person born after December 31, 1959 who has attained 18...

32 CFR 1698.2 - Requests for advisory opinions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... ADVISORY OPINIONS § 1698.2 Requests for advisory opinions. (a) Any male born after December 31, 1959 who... advisory opinion as to the liability of any male person born after December 31, 1959 who has attained 18...

Opinions of sports clinical practice chiropractors, with sports specialty training and those without, about chiropractic research priorities in sports health care: a centering resonance analysis

PubMed Central

Lee, Alexander D; Szabo, Kaitlyn; McDowell, Kirstie; Granger, Sydney

2016-01-01

Introduction: A Canadian sports chiropractic research agenda has yet to be defined. The Delphi method can be utilized to achieve this purpose; however, the sample of experts who participate can influence the results. To better inform sample selection for future research agenda development, we set out to determine if differences in opinions about research priorities exist between chiropractors who have their sports specialty designation and those who do not. Methods: Fifteen sports clinical practice chiropractors who have their sports fellowship designation and fifteen without, were interviewed with a set of standardized questions about sports chiropractic research priorities. A centering resonance analysis and cluster analysis were conducted on the interview responses. Results: The two practitioner groups differed in their opinions about the type of research that they would like to see conducted, the research that would impact their clinical practice the most, and where they believed research was lacking. However, both groups were similar in their opinions about research collaborations. Conclusion: Sports clinical practice chiropractors, with their sports specialty designation and those without, differed in their opinions about sports chiropractic research priorities; however, they had similar opinions about research collaborations. These results suggest that it may be important to sample from both practitioner groups in future studies aimed at developing research agendas for chiropractic research in sport. PMID:28065995

Evidence-based recommendations for the diagnosis and management of rheumatoid arthritis for non-rheumatologists: Integrating systematic literature research and expert opinion of the Thai Rheumatism Association.

PubMed

Katchamart, Wanruchada; Narongroeknawin, Pongthorn; Chevaisrakul, Parawee; Dechanuwong, Pornchai; Mahakkanukrauh, Ajanee; Kasitanon, Nuntana; Pakchotanon, Rattapol; Sumethkul, Kittiwan; Ueareewongsa, Parichat; Ukritchon, Sittichai; Bhurihirun, Thitirat; Duangkum, Kittikorn; Intapiboon, Porntip; Intongkam, Samanan; Jangsombatsiri, Wimol; Jatuworapruk, Kanon; Kositpesat, Naravadee; Leungroongroj, Pawinee; Lomarat, Wiyanoot; Petcharat, Chonachan; Sittivutworapant, Siriluck; Suebmee, Patcharawan; Tantayakom, Pongchirat; Tipsing, Worakan; Asavatanabodee, Paijit; Chiowchanwisawakit, Praveena; Foocharoen, Chingching; Koolvisoot, Ajchara; Louthrenoo, Worawit; Siripaitoon, Boonjing; Totemchokchyakarn, Kitti; Kitumnuaypong, Tasanee

2017-09-01

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic inflammatory joint disease leading to joint damage, functional disability, poor quality of life and shortened life expectancy. Early diagnosis and aggressive treatment are a principal strategy to improve outcomes. To provide best practices in the diagnosis and management of patients with RA, the Thai Rheumatism Association (TRA) developed scientifically sound and clinically relevant evidence-based recommendations for general practitioners, internists, orthopedists, and physiatrists. Thirty-seven rheumatologists from across Thailand formulated 18 clinically relevant questions: three for diagnosis, 10 for treatments, four for monitoring, and one for referral. A bibliographic team systematically reviewed the relevant literature on these topics up to December 2013. A set of recommendations was proposed based on the results of systematic reviews combined with expert opinions. Group consensus was achieved for all statements and recommendations using the nominal group technique. A set of recommendations was proposed. For diagnosis, either American College of Rheumatology (ACR) 1987 or ACR/European League Against Rheumatism 2010 classification criteria can be applied. For treatment, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, glucocorticoid, and disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs, including antimalarials, methotrexate and sulfasalazine are recommended. Physiotherapy should be suggested to all patients. Tight control strategy and monitoring for efficacy and side effects of treatments, as well as indications for referral to a rheumatologist are provided. These evidence-based recommendations provide practical guidance for diagnosis, fundamental management and referral of patients with RA for non-rheumatologists. However, it should be incorporated with clinical judgments and decisions about care for each individual patient. © 2016 Asia Pacific League of Associations for Rheumatology and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Diabetes care providers' opinions and working methods after four years of experience with a diabetes patient web portal; a survey among health care providers in general practices and an outpatient clinic.

PubMed

Ronda, Maaike C M; Dijkhorst-Oei, Lioe-Ting; Vos, Rimke C; Rutten, Guy E H M

2018-06-21

To gain insight into the opinions and working methods of diabetes care providers after using a diabetes web portal for 4 years in order to understand the role of the provider in patients' web portal use. Survey among physicians and nurses from general practices and an outpatient clinic, correlated with data from the common web portal. One hundred twenty-eight questionnaires were analysed (response rate 56.6%). Responders' mean age was 46.2 ± 9.8 years and 43.8% were physicians. The majority was of opinion that the portal improves patients' diabetes knowledge (90.6%) and quality of care (72.7%). Although uploading glucose diary (93.6%) and patient access to laboratory and clinical notes (91.2 and 71.0%) were considered important, these features were recommended to patients in only 71.8 and 19.5% respectively. 64.8% declared they informed their patients about the portal and 45.3% handed-out the information leaflet and website address. The portal was especially recommended to type 1 diabetes patients (78.3%); those on insulin (84.3%) and patients aged< 65 years (72.4%). Few found it timesaving (21.9%). Diabetes care providers' opinions were not associated with patients' portal use. Providers are positive about patients web portals but still not recommend or encourage the use to all patients. There seems room for improvement in their working methods.

Opinion data mining based on DNA method and ORA software

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Ru-Ya; Wu, Lei; Liang, Xiao-He; Zhang, Xue-Fu

2018-01-01

Public opinion, especially the online public opinion is a critical issue when it comes to mining its characteristics. Because it can be formed directly and intensely in a short time, and may lead to the outbreak of online group events, and the formation of online public opinion crisis. This may become the pushing hand of a public crisis event, or even have negative social impacts, which brings great challenges to the government management. Data from the mass media which reveal implicit, previously unknown, and potentially valuable information, can effectively help us to understand the evolution law of public opinion, and provide a useful reference for rumor intervention. Based on the Dynamic Network Analysis method, this paper uses ORA software to mine characteristics of public opinion information, opinion topics, and public opinion agents through a series of indicators, and quantitatively analyzed the relationships between them. The results show that through the analysis of the 8 indexes associating with opinion data mining, we can have a basic understanding of the public opinion characteristics of an opinion event, such as who is important in the opinion spreading process, the information grasping condition, and the opinion topics release situation.

Opinions of Secondary School Mathematics Teachers on Mathematical Modelling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tutak, Tayfun; Güder, Yunus

2013-01-01

The aim of this study is to identify the opinions of secondary school mathematics teachers about mathematical modelling. Qualitative research was used. The participants of the study were 40 secondary school teachers working in the Bingöl Province in Turkey during 2012-2013 education year. Semi-structured interview form prepared by the researcher…

Community Size, Perceptions of Majority Opinion and Opinion Expression.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Salmon, Charles T.; Oshagan, Hayg

A study examined structural determinants of opinion expression by merging two theoretical perspectives: the "spiral of silence" model advanced by Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann, and the structural approach to communication research offered by Phillip Tichenor, George Donohue, and Clarice Olien. The study also distinguished between different…

2001 traffic safety issues opinion survey.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-02-01

As a means of determining public opinion on specific traffic safety issues, a public opinion survey was conducted. A total of 4,500 mail surveys were sent to a stratified sample of drivers selected from the drivers license file. The state was divided...

Social opinion dynamics is not chaotic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, Chjan; Zhang, Weituo

2016-08-01

Motivated by the research on social opinion dynamics over large and dense networks, a general framework for verifying the monotonicity property of multi-agent dynamics is introduced. This allows a derivation of sociologically meaningful sufficient conditions for monotonicity that are tailor-made for social opinion dynamics, which typically have high nonlinearity. A direct consequence of monotonicity is that social opinion dynamics is nonchaotic. A key part of this framework is the definition of a partial order relation that is suitable for a large class of social opinion dynamics such as the generalized naming games. Comparisons are made to previous techniques to verify monotonicity. Using the results obtained, we extend many of the consequences of monotonicity to this class of social dynamics, including several corollaries on their asymptotic behavior, such as global convergence to consensus and tipping points of a minority fraction of zealots or leaders.

A hybrid model for opinion formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borra, Domenica; Lorenzi, Tommaso

2013-06-01

This paper presents a hybrid model for opinion formation in a large group of agents exposed to the persuasive action of a small number of strong opinion leaders. The model is defined by coupling a finite difference equation for the dynamics of leaders opinion with a continuous integro-differential equation for the dynamics of the others. Such a definition stems from the idea that the leaders are few and tend to retain original opinions, so that their dynamics occur on a longer time scale with respect to the one of the other agents. A general well-posedness result is established for the initial value problem linked to the model. The asymptotic behavior in time of the related solution is characterized for some general parameter settings, which mimic distinct social scenarios, where different emerging behaviors can be observed. Analytical results are illustrated and extended through numerical simulations.

Expert systems built by the Expert: An evaluation of OPS5

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackson, Robert

1987-01-01

Two expert systems were written in OPS5 by the expert, a Ph.D. astronomer with no prior experience in artificial intelligence or expert systems, without the use of a knowledge engineer. The first system was built from scratch and uses 146 rules to check for duplication of scientific information within a pool of prospective observations. The second system was grafted onto another expert system and uses 149 additional rules to estimate the spacecraft and ground resources consumed by a set of prospective observations. The small vocabulary, the IF this occurs THEN do that logical structure of OPS5, and the ability to follow program execution allowed the expert to design and implement these systems with only the data structures and rules of another OPS5 system as an example. The modularity of the rules in OPS5 allowed the second system to modify the rulebase of the system onto which it was grafted without changing the code or the operation of that system. These experiences show that experts are able to develop their own expert systems due to the ease of programming and code reusability in OPS5.

The Expert Witness

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Environmental Science and Technology, 1975

1975-01-01

As consumers organize and industry begins to feel the economic pinch of pollution control laws, litigation may increase as will the need for the expert witness. Discussed are the functions and preparations of expert witnesses, their role and conduct in judicial proceedings, and the techniques of being an expert witness. (BT)

Phase Transition in Opinion Diffusion in Social Networks

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-05-01

the opinions of social agents diffuse in a network under a so-called hard-interaction model, in which the agents inter- act more strongly with...gent behavior. Index Terms— opinion diffusion , opinion dynamics, social net- works, phase transition, herding. 1. INTRODUCTION The study of the

Identifying Opinion Leaders to Promote Organ Donation on Social Media: Network Study

PubMed Central

Salmon, Charles T

2018-01-01

Background In the recent years, social networking sites (SNSs, also called social media) have been adopted in organ donation campaigns, and recruiting opinion leaders for such campaigns has been found effective in promoting behavioral changes. Objective The aim of this paper was to focus on the dissemination of organ donation tweets on Weibo, the Chinese equivalent of Twitter, and to examine the opinion leadership in the retweet network of popular organ donation messages using social network analysis. It also aimed to investigate how personal and social attributes contribute to a user’s opinion leadership on the topic of organ donation. Methods All messages about organ donation posted on Weibo from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2015 were extracted using Python Web crawler. A retweet network with 505,047 nodes and 545,312 edges of the popular messages (n=206) was constructed and analyzed. The local and global opinion leaderships were measured using network metrics, and the roles of personal attributes, professional knowledge, and social positions in obtaining the opinion leadership were examined using general linear model. Results The findings revealed that personal attributes, professional knowledge, and social positions predicted individual’s local opinion leadership in the retweet network of popular organ donation messages. Alternatively, personal attributes and social positions, but not professional knowledge, were significantly associated with global opinion leadership. Conclusions The findings of this study indicate that health campaign designers may recruit peer leaders in SNS organ donation promotions to facilitate information sharing among the target audience. Users who are unverified, active, well connected, and experienced with information and communications technology (ICT) will accelerate the sharing of organ donation messages in the global environment. Medical professionals such as organ transplant surgeons who can wield a great amount of

An expert opinion on PANDAS/PANS: highlights and controversies.

PubMed

Chiarello, Francesca; Spitoni, Silvia; Hollander, Eric; Matucci Cerinic, Marco; Pallanti, Stefano

2017-06-01

'Pediatric Autoimmune Neuropsychiatric Disorders Associated with Streptococcal Infections' (PANDAS) identified a unique subgroup of patients with abrupt onset of obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD) symptoms clinically related to Streptococcus infection and accompanied by neuropsychological and motor symptoms. After almost 20 years, PANDAS has not been accepted as distinct disorder and new criteria for paediatric acute-onset neuropsychiatric syndrome (PANS) have been replaced it, highlighting the fact that several agents rather than only Streptococcus might be involved. Extensive review of the PANDAS/PANS literature was performed on PubMed. Although antibiotics have been reported to be effective for acute and prophylactic phases in several uncontrolled studies and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAID) are used during exacerbations, clinical multicenter trials are still missing. Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) and cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) are still the first line of recommendation for acute onset OCD spectrum. Immunological therapies should be restricted to a few cases. While PANDAS has found no confirmation as a distinct syndrome, and it is not presented in DSM-5, patients with acute onset OCD spectrum, neurocognitive and motor symptoms should be evaluated for inflammatory, infective, immunological and metabolic abnormalities with a comprehensive diagnostic algorithm.

Expert opinion on emerging drugs: chronic low back pain.

PubMed

Hsu, Eugene; Murphy, Sunberri; Chang, David; Cohen, Steven P

2015-03-01

It is difficult to overestimate the personal and socioeconomic impact of chronic low back pain (CLBP). It is the leading cause of years lost to disability and poses the highest economic toll among chronic illnesses. Despite the strong need for extensive research efforts, few drugs have consistently demonstrated effectiveness for this condition. In this review, the epidemiology, rationale for mechanism-based treatment, competitive environment and market trends, and the preclinical and clinical evidence supporting over 15 different classes of analgesic medications studied for CLBP or related pain conditions are discussed. Treatments are divided by drug category, type of CLBP they are likely to treat (e.g., neuropathic or mechanical), and whether they are new formulations of existing treatments, new indications for existing treatments or represent novel mechanisms of action. Databases searched included MEDLINE, Embase, Pharmaprojects and various clinical trial registries. Many barriers exist for the development of medications for CLBP including difficulties in identifying pathophysiological mechanisms, biologic resiliency secondary to multiple concurrent pain pathways and off-target and sometimes serious side effects. Nevertheless, the volume and diversity of novel molecular entities has continued to surge and includes possible disease-modifying therapies such as gene and stem cell therapy.

A lexicon based method to search for extreme opinions.

PubMed

Almatarneh, Sattam; Gamallo, Pablo

2018-01-01

Studies in sentiment analysis and opinion mining have been focused on many aspects related to opinions, namely polarity classification by making use of positive, negative or neutral values. However, most studies have overlooked the identification of extreme opinions (most negative and most positive opinions) in spite of their vast significance in many applications. We use an unsupervised approach to search for extreme opinions, which is based on the automatic construction of a new lexicon containing the most negative and most positive words.

Expertise in unexpected places: Children's acceptance of information from gender counter-stereotypical experts.

PubMed

Boseovski, Janet J; Hughes, Chelsea; Miller, Stephanie E

2016-01-01

The current study examined children's willingness to accept novel information from expert informants with nontraditional gender role interests. Four- to 8-year-olds heard conflicting information about traditionally feminine or masculine domains from a gender counter-stereotypical expert (e.g., a boy with expertise in ballet) and a layperson of the other gender (e.g., a girl with little knowledge about ballet). Participants were asked which informant was correct, who they would prefer to learn from in the future, and to rate their liking of each informant. Overall, participants selected the gender counter-stereotypical expert as correct. Four- to 5-year-olds reported a preference to learn from same-gender participants in the future irrespective of expertise, whereas 6- to 8-year-olds reported wanting to learn from counter-stereotypical experts. Boys showed relatively greater acceptance of information from a male counter-stereotypical expert than from a female counter-stereotypical expert. Although participants reported greater liking of same-gender informants, liking evaluations were largely positive irrespective of gender norm deviations. Implications for children's acceptance of gender nonconforming activities are discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quiet eye gaze behavior of expert, and near-expert, baseball plate umpires.

PubMed

Millslagle, Duane G; Hines, Bridget B; Smith, Melissa S

2013-02-01

The quiet eye gaze behavior of 4 near-expert and 4 expert baseball umpires who called balls and strikes in simulated pitch-hit situations was assessed with a mobile eye cornea tracker system. Statistical analyses of the umpires' gaze behavior (fixation/pursuit tracking, saccades, and blinks)--onset, duration, offset, and frequency--were performed between and within 4 stages (pitcher's preparation, pitcher's delivery, ball in flight, and umpire call) by umpire's skill level. The results indicated that the quiet eye of expert umpires at onset of the pitcher's release point occurred earlier and was longer in duration than near-expert umpires. Expert expert umpires. The area outside the pitcher's ball release point may be the key environment cue for the behind-the-plate umpire.

German second-opinion network for testicular cancer: sealing the leaky pipe between evidence and clinical practice.

PubMed

Zengerling, Friedemann; Hartmann, Michael; Heidenreich, Axel; Krege, Susanne; Albers, Peter; Karl, Alexander; Weissbach, Lothar; Wagner, Walter; Bedke, Jens; Retz, Margitta; Schmelz, Hans U; Kliesch, Sabine; Kuczyk, Markus; Winter, Eva; Pottek, Tobias; Dieckmann, Klaus-Peter; Schrader, Andres Jan; Schrader, Mark

2014-06-01

In 2006, the German Testicular Cancer Study Group initiated an extensive evidence-based national second-opinion network to improve the care of testicular cancer patients. The primary aims were to reflect the current state of testicular cancer treatment in Germany and to analyze the project's effect on the quality of care delivered to testicular cancer patients. A freely available internet-based platform was developed for the exchange of data between the urologists seeking advice and the 31 second-opinion givers. After providing all data relevant to the primary treatment decision, urologists received a second opinion on their therapy plan within <48 h. Endpoints were congruence between the first and second opinion, conformity of applied therapy with the corresponding recommendation and progression-free survival rate of the introduced patients. Significance was determined by two-sided Pearson's χ2 test. A total of 1,284 second-opinion requests were submitted from November 2006 to October 2011, and 926 of these cases were eligible for further analysis. A discrepancy was found between first and second opinion in 39.5% of the cases. Discrepant second opinions led to less extensive treatment in 28.1% and to more extensive treatment in 15.6%. Patients treated within the framework of the second-opinion project had an overall 2-year progression-free survival rate of 90.4%. Approximately every 6th second opinion led to a relevant change in therapy. Despite the lack of financial incentives, data from every 8th testicular cancer patient in Germany were submitted to second-opinion centers. Second-opinion centers can help to improve the implementation of evidence into clinical practice.

Class Teacher Candidates' Opinions on Genetically Modified Organisms (GMO)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ural Keles, Pinar; Aydin, Suleyman

2017-01-01

This study was conducted to determine the Class teacher candidates' opinions on Genetically Modified Organisms. The study was carried out with 101 teacher candidates who were studying in the 3rd grade of Agri Ibrahim Çeçen University Classroom Teacher Department in 2016-2017 academic year. Of the students who participated in the survey, 56 were…

Ethical Expert Systems

PubMed Central

Victoroff, Michael S.

1985-01-01

The title is a double entendre. The discussion approaches expert systems from two directions: “What ethical hazards are created by expert systems in medicine?” and “Would it be ethical to design an expert system for solving problems in bioethics?” Computers present new ethical problems to society, some of which are unprecedented. These can be categorized under several rubrics. The paper describes a rudimentary scheme for understanding ethical issues raised by computers, in general, and medical expert systems, in particular. It focuses on bioethical implications of AI in medicine; explores norms, assumptions and taboos; and highlights certain ethical pitfalls. Principles are elucidated, for building ethically sound systems. Finally, a proposal is discussed, for the design of an expert system for moral problem solving, and the ethical implications of this notion are analyzed.

Primary Therapy of Patients with Early Breast Cancer: Evidence, Controversies, Consensus: Opinions of German Specialists to the 14th St. Gallen International Breast Cancer Conference 2015 (Vienna 2015).

PubMed

Untch, M; Harbeck, N; Huober, J; von Minckwitz, G; Gerber, B; Kreipe, H-H; Liedtke, C; Marschner, N; Möbus, V; Scheithauer, H; Schneeweiss, A; Thomssen, C; Jackisch, C; Beckmann, M W; Blohmer, J-U; Costa, S-D; Decker, T; Diel, I; Fasching, P A; Fehm, T; Janni, W; Lück, H-J; Maass, N; Scharl, A; Loibl, S

2015-06-01

For the first time, this year's St. Gallen International Consensus Conference on the treatment of patients with primary breast cancer, which takes place every two years, was held not in St. Gallen (Switzerland) but - for logistical reasons - in Vienna (Austria) under its usual name. The 2015 St. Gallen International Consensus Conference was the 14th of its kind. As the international panel of the St. Gallen conference consists of experts from different countries, the consensus mirrors an international cross-section of opinions. From a German perspective, it was considered useful to translate the results of the votes of the St. Gallen conference into practical suggestions, particularly in light of the recently updated treatment guideline of the Gynecologic Oncology Group (AGO-Mamma 2015) in Germany. A German group consisting of 14 breast cancer experts, three of whom are members of the international St. Gallen panel, has therefore provided comments on the results of this year's votes at the 2015 St. Gallen Consensus Conference and their impact on clinical care in Germany. The 14th St. Gallen conference once again focused on surgery of the breast and the axilla, radio-oncologic and systemic treatment options for primary breast cancer depending on tumor biology, and the clinical use of multigene assays. The conference also considered targeted therapies for older and for younger patients, including the diagnosis/treatment of breast cancer during and after pregnancy and the preservation of fertility.

Management of Clostridium difficile Infection in Inflammatory Bowel Disease: Expert Review from the Clinical Practice Updates Committee of the AGA Institute.

PubMed

Khanna, Sahil; Shin, Andrea; Kelly, Ciarán P

2017-02-01

The purpose of this expert review is to synthesize the existing evidence on the management of Clostridium difficile infection in patients with underlying inflammatory bowel disease. The evidence reviewed in this article is a summation of relevant scientific publications, expert opinion statements, and current practice guidelines. This review is a summary of expert opinion in the field without a formal systematic review of evidence. Best Practice Advice 1: Clinicians should test patients who present with a flare of underlying inflammatory bowel disease for Clostridium difficile infection. Best Practice Advice 2: Clinicians should screen for recurrent C difficile infection if diarrhea or other symptoms of colitis persist or return after antibiotic treatment for C difficile infection. Best Practice Advice 3: Clinicians should consider treating C difficile infection in inflammatory bowel disease patients with vancomycin instead of metronidazole. Best Practice Advice 4: Clinicians strongly should consider hospitalization for close monitoring and aggressive management for inflammatory bowel disease patients with C difficile infection who have profuse diarrhea, severe abdominal pain, a markedly increased peripheral blood leukocyte count, or other evidence of sepsis. Best Practice Advice 5: Clinicians may postpone escalation of steroids and other immunosuppression agents during acute C difficile infection until therapy for C difficile infection has been initiated. However, the decision to withhold or continue immunosuppression in inflammatory bowel disease patients with C difficile infection should be individualized because there is insufficient existing robust literature on which to develop firm recommendations. Best Practice Advice 6: Clinicians should offer a referral for fecal microbiota transplantation to inflammatory bowel disease patients with recurrent C difficile infection. Copyright © 2017 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A lexicon based method to search for extreme opinions

PubMed Central

Gamallo, Pablo

2018-01-01

Studies in sentiment analysis and opinion mining have been focused on many aspects related to opinions, namely polarity classification by making use of positive, negative or neutral values. However, most studies have overlooked the identification of extreme opinions (most negative and most positive opinions) in spite of their vast significance in many applications. We use an unsupervised approach to search for extreme opinions, which is based on the automatic construction of a new lexicon containing the most negative and most positive words. PMID:29799867

The expert-generalist: a contradiction whose time has come.

PubMed

Fins, Joseph J

2015-08-01

The author suggests the creation of expert-generalists to help provide the additional cost-effective access to care necessitated by increased insurance coverage under the Affordable Care Act. Expert-generalists, a concept drawn from an extant Canadian model, would be a cohort of primary care physicians who obtain additional training in a subspecialty area, which would widen their practice portfolio and bring enhanced infrastructure to primary care settings. Expanding the reach of primary care into the realm of more advanced subspecialty practice could be a way to enhance both access to and quality of care in a cost-effective fashion, in part because the educational framework for additional training already exists. Trainees could opt for an extra year of training after traditional residency or return to training after years in practice. Properly trained, an expert-generalist would benefit both the quality of the patient experience and the bottom line by expertly triaging patients to determine who will truly benefit from specialty consultations, decreasing specialists' engagement with cases that do not require their higher-tier care. The author considers the merits of this proposal, as well as potential objections and implementation challenges. It is suggested that this model be adopted incrementally, using demonstration projects that could assess the impact of an expert-generalist initiative on the physician workforce and on patients' access to quality primary and specialty care.

Meanings & motives. Experts debating tobacco addiction.

PubMed

Mars, Sarah G; Ling, Pamela M

2008-10-01

Over the last 50 years, tobacco has been excluded from and then included in the category of addictive substances. We investigated influences on these opposing definitions and their application in expert witness testimony in litigation in the 1990s and 2000s. A scientist with ties to the tobacco industry influenced the selection of a definition of addiction that led to the classification of tobacco as a "habituation" in the 1964 Surgeon General's Advisory Committee report. Tobacco was later defined as addictive in the 1988 surgeon general's report. Expert witnesses for tobacco companies used the 1964 report's definition until Philip Morris Tobacco Company publicly changed its position in 1997 to agree that nicotine was addictive. Expert witnesses for plaintiffs suing the tobacco industry used the 1988 report's definition, arguing that new definitions were superior because of scientific advance. Both sides viewed addiction as an objective entity that could be defined more or less accurately.

MEANINGS & MOTIVES Experts Debating Tobacco Addiction

PubMed Central

Mars, Sarah G.

2008-01-01

Over the last 50 years, tobacco has been excluded from and then included in the category of addictive substances. We investigated influences on these opposing definitions and their application in expert witness testimony in litigation in the 1990s and 2000s. A scientist with ties to the tobacco industry influenced the selection of a definition of addiction that led to the classification of tobacco as a “habituation” in the 1964 Surgeon General's Advisory Committee report. Tobacco was later defined as addictive in the 1988 surgeon general's report. Expert witnesses for tobacco companies used the 1964 report's definition until Philip Morris Tobacco Company publicly changed its position in 1997 to agree that nicotine was addictive. Expert witnesses for plaintiffs suing the tobacco industry used the 1988 report's definition, arguing that new definitions were superior because of scientific advance. Both sides viewed addiction as an objective entity that could be defined more or less accurately. PMID:18703459

Expert panel on practice patterns in the management of cow's milk protein allergy and associated economic burden of disease on health service in Turkey.

PubMed

Sekerel, Bulent Enis; Seyhun, Oznur

2017-09-01

To evaluate practice patterns in the management of cow's milk protein allergy (CMPA) and associated economic burden of disease on health service in Turkey. This study was based on experts' views on the practice patterns in management of CMPA manifesting with either proctocolitis or eczema symptoms and, thereby, aimed to estimate economic burden of CMPA. Practice patterns were determined via patient flow charts developed by experts using the modified Delphi method for CMPA presented with proctocolitis and eczema. Per patient total 2-year direct medical costs were calculated, including cost items of physician visits, laboratory tests, and treatment. According to the consensus opinion of experts, 2-year total direct medical cost from a payer perspective and societal perspective was calculated to be $US2,116.05 and $US2,435.84, respectively, in an infant with CMPA presenting with proctocolitis symptoms, and $US4,001.65 and $US4,828.90, respectively, in an infant with CMPA presenting with eczema symptoms. Clinical nutrition was the primary cost driver that accounted for 89-92% of 2-year total direct medical costs, while the highest total direct medical cost estimated from a payer perspective and societal perspective was noted for the management of an exclusively formula-fed infant presenting either with proctocolitis ($US3,743.85 and $US4,025.63, respectively) or eczema ($US6,854.10 and $US7,917.30, respectively). The first line use of amino acid based formula (AAF) was associated with total direct cost increment $US1,848.08 and $US3,444.52 in the case of proctocolitis and eczema, respectively. Certain limitations to this study should be considered. First, being focused only on direct costs, the lack of data on indirect costs or intangible costs of illness seems to be a major limitation of the present study, which likely results in a downward bias in the estimates of the economic cost of CMPA. Second, given the limited number of studies concerning epidemiology and

A 27-year-old woman with a diagnosis of polycystic ovary syndrome.

PubMed

Legro, Richard S

2007-02-07

Ms R, a 27-year-old woman with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) diagnosed after irregular menses, hirsutism, and polycystic ovaries, is concerned about weight gain despite regular exercise and watching her diet. Prescribed oral contraceptives to regulate her menses and help reduce her androgen levels, she wants to know the alternatives for treatment of PCOS. The varying definitions of PCOS and its heterogeneity confound the interpretation of studies on PCOS. Specific diagnostic criteria have been established based on expert opinion but have not been validated. Several commonly performed laboratory tests are generally unhelpful and the pathophysiology is poorly understood. Treatment options for Ms R, including those that may affect her weight gain, are reviewed and implications for future fertility are discussed.

Reducing STD/HIV stigmatizing attitudes through community popular opinion leaders in Chinese markets

PubMed Central

Rice, Ronald E.; Wu, Zunyou; Li, Li; Detels, Roger; Rotheram-Borus, Mary Jane

2013-01-01

Reducing STDs and HIV/AIDS incidence requires campaigns designed to change knowledge, attitudes and practices of risky sexual behavior and its consequences. In China, a significant obstacle to such changes is the stigma associated with these diseases. Thus one campaign intervention strategy is to train credible community popular opinion leaders to discuss these issues in everyday social venues. This study tested the effectiveness of such an approach on reducing HIV/AIDS stigma, across two years, from a sample of over 4500 market vendors, in three conditions. Results showed an increasing growth in market communication about intervention messages, and concomitant declines in stigmatizing attitudes, across time, with the greatest changes in community popular opinion leaders, significant changes in intervention non-opinion leaders, and little change in the control markets. PMID:24944433

Reducing STD/HIV stigmatizing attitudes through community popular opinion leaders in Chinese markets.

PubMed

Rice, Ronald E; Wu, Zunyou; Li, Li; Detels, Roger; Rotheram-Borus, Mary Jane

2012-12-01

Reducing STDs and HIV/AIDS incidence requires campaigns designed to change knowledge, attitudes and practices of risky sexual behavior and its consequences. In China, a significant obstacle to such changes is the stigma associated with these diseases. Thus one campaign intervention strategy is to train credible community popular opinion leaders to discuss these issues in everyday social venues. This study tested the effectiveness of such an approach on reducing HIV/AIDS stigma, across two years, from a sample of over 4500 market vendors, in three conditions. Results showed an increasing growth in market communication about intervention messages, and concomitant declines in stigmatizing attitudes, across time, with the greatest changes in community popular opinion leaders, significant changes in intervention non-opinion leaders, and little change in the control markets.

10 CFR 590.404 - Final opinions and orders.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 10 Energy 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Final opinions and orders. 590.404 Section 590.404 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY (CONTINUED) NATURAL GAS (ECONOMIC REGULATORY ADMINISTRATION) ADMINISTRATIVE PROCEDURES WITH RESPECT TO THE IMPORT AND EXPORT OF NATURAL GAS Opinions and Orders § 590.404 Final opinions and...

Issues and controversies of hepatocellular carcinoma-targeted therapy clinical trials in Asia: experts' opinion.

PubMed

Chen, Pei-Jer; Furuse, Junji; Han, Kwang-Hyub; Hsu, Chiun; Lim, Ho-Yeong; Moon, Hanlim; Qin, Shukui; Ye, Sheng-Long; Yeoh, Ee-Min; Yeo, Winnie

2010-11-01

Asia has a disproportionate share of the world's burden of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, the highly regarded clinical practice guidelines and recommendations for the design and conduct of clinical trials for HCC largely reflect Western practice. In order to design mutually beneficial international clinical trials of promising targeted therapies, it is imperative to understand how the aetiology, staging and treatment of HCC differ between Asian and Western countries. Our group, comprising experts in oncology and hepatology from countries that constitute the Eastern Asian region, convened to compare and contrast our current practices, evaluate potential compliance with the clinical trial recommendations, and offer suggestions for modifications that would enhance international collaboration. Here, we describe the results of our discussions, including recommendations for appropriate patient stratification based on potentially important differences in HCC aetiology, identification of practices that may confound interpretation of clinical trial outcomes (traditional Chinese medicine; antivirals that target hepatitis B virus; heterogeneous embolization procedures), suggestions for utilizing a common staging system in study protocols, recognition that sorafenib usage is limited by financial constraints and potentially increased toxicity in Asian patients, and expansion of patient populations that should be eligible for initial clinical trials with new agents. © 2010 John Wiley & Sons A/S.