Effect of liquid-to-solid ratio on semi-solid Fenton process in hazardous solid waste detoxication.

PubMed

Hu, Li-Fang; Feng, Hua-Jun; Long, Yu-Yang; Zheng, Yuan-Ge; Fang, Cheng-Ran; Shen, Dong-Sheng

2011-01-01

The liquid-to-solid ratio (L/S) of semi-solid Fenton process (SSFP) designated for hazardous solid waste detoxication was investigated. The removal and minimization effects of o-nitroaniline (ONA) in simulate solid waste residue (SSWR) from organic arsenic industry was evaluated by total organic carbon (TOC) and ONA removal efficiency, respectively. Initially, Box-Behnken design (BBD) and response surface methodology (RSM) were used to optimize the key factors of SSFP. Results showed that the removal rates of TOC and ONA decreased as L/S increased. Subsequently, four target initial ONA concentrations including 100 mg kg(-1), 1 g kg(-1), 10 g kg(-1), and 100 gk g(-1) on a dry basis were evaluated for the effect of L/S. A significant cubic empirical model between the initial ONA concentration and L/S was successfully developed to predict the optimal L/S for given initial ONA concentration for SSFP. Moreover, an optimized operation strategy of multi-SSFP for different cases was determined based on the residual target pollutant concentration and the corresponding environmental conditions. It showed that the total L/S of multi-SSFP in all tested scenarios was no greater than 3.8, which is lower than the conventional slurry systems (L/S ≥ 5). The multi-SSFP is environment-friendly when it used for detoxication of hazardous solid waste contaminated by ONA and provides a potential method for the detoxication of hazardous solid waste contaminated by organics. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

2017 One‐year seismic‐hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Mark D.; Mueller, Charles; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Hoover, Susan M.; Shumway, Allison; McNamara, Daniel E.; Williams, Robert; Llenos, Andrea L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Rubinstein, Justin L.; McGarr, Arthur F.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.

2017-01-01

We produce a one‐year 2017 seismic‐hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes that updates the 2016 one‐year forecast; this map is intended to provide information to the public and to facilitate the development of induced seismicity forecasting models, methods, and data. The 2017 hazard model applies the same methodology and input logic tree as the 2016 forecast, but with an updated earthquake catalog. We also evaluate the 2016 seismic‐hazard forecast to improve future assessments. The 2016 forecast indicated high seismic hazard (greater than 1% probability of potentially damaging ground shaking in one year) in five focus areas: Oklahoma–Kansas, the Raton basin (Colorado/New Mexico border), north Texas, north Arkansas, and the New Madrid Seismic Zone. During 2016, several damaging induced earthquakes occurred in Oklahoma within the highest hazard region of the 2016 forecast; all of the 21 moment magnitude (M) ≥4 and 3 M≥5 earthquakes occurred within the highest hazard area in the 2016 forecast. Outside the Oklahoma–Kansas focus area, two earthquakes with M≥4 occurred near Trinidad, Colorado (in the Raton basin focus area), but no earthquakes with M≥2.7 were observed in the north Texas or north Arkansas focus areas. Several observations of damaging ground‐shaking levels were also recorded in the highest hazard region of Oklahoma. The 2017 forecasted seismic rates are lower in regions of induced activity due to lower rates of earthquakes in 2016 compared with 2015, which may be related to decreased wastewater injection caused by regulatory actions or by a decrease in unconventional oil and gas production. Nevertheless, the 2017 forecasted hazard is still significantly elevated in Oklahoma compared to the hazard calculated from seismicity before 2009.

Assessment of Three Flood Hazard Mapping Methods: A Case Study of Perlis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azizat, Nazirah; Omar, Wan Mohd Sabki Wan

2018-03-01

Flood is a common natural disaster and also affect the all state in Malaysia. Regarding to Drainage and Irrigation Department (DID) in 2007, about 29, 270 km2 or 9 percent of region of the country is prone to flooding. Flood can be such devastating catastrophic which can effected to people, economy and environment. Flood hazard mapping can be used is an important part in flood assessment to define those high risk area prone to flooding. The purposes of this study are to prepare a flood hazard mapping in Perlis and to evaluate flood hazard using frequency ratio, statistical index and Poisson method. The six factors affecting the occurrence of flood including elevation, distance from the drainage network, rainfall, soil texture, geology and erosion were created using ArcGIS 10.1 software. Flood location map in this study has been generated based on flooded area in year 2010 from DID. These parameters and flood location map were analysed to prepare flood hazard mapping in representing the probability of flood area. The results of the analysis were verified using flood location data in year 2013, 2014, 2015. The comparison result showed statistical index method is better in prediction of flood area rather than frequency ratio and Poisson method.

Disseminating Landslide Hazard Information for California Local Government

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wills, C. J.

2010-12-01

landslide susceptibility map to give a single value of susceptibility for each census tract. We then calculated the loss ratio, the cost of landslide damage from the 1978 storms divided by the value of light wood frame structures in the census tract. The comparison suggests three general categories of damage: tracts with low landslide susceptibility have no landslide damage: tracts with moderate susceptibility have loss ratios of about 0.016%: and tracts with high susceptibility have loss ratios of 0.096%. Using these values, the susceptibility map becomes a landslide loss ratio map for the average storm intensity and landslide vulnerability of Los Angeles in 1978. Generalization to other storm intensities uses differences in storm intensity and landslide damage data from the 1982 storm in the Bay Area. In Santa Cruz County, that storm had a recurrence interval of over 100 years, and over 3 times the damage as our projection from the 1978 data. In Sonoma County, that storm had a recurrence interval of only 10 years and damage that was only 2% of our projection. If a relationship between storm intensity and the projections from the 1978 Los Angeles data can be developed, we may be able to estimate landslide losses for any projected storm intensity.

Utility of serum lipid ratios for predicting incident type 2 diabetes: the Isfahan Diabetes Prevention Study.

PubMed

Janghorbani, Mohsen; Amini, Masoud

2016-09-01

In this study, we evaluate the association between triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL) ratio and total cholesterol (TC) to HDL (TC/HDL) ratio and the risks of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in an Iranian high-risk population. We analysed 7-year follow-up data (n = 1771) in non-diabetic first-degree relatives of consecutive patients with T2D 30-70 years old. The primary outcome was the diagnosis of T2D based on repeated oral glucose tolerance tests. We used Cox proportional hazard models to estimate hazard ratio for incident T2D across tertiles of TG/HDL and TC/HDL ratios and plotted a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to assess discrimination. The highest tertile of TG/HDL and TC/HDL ratios compared with the lowest tertile was not associated with T2D in age- and gender-adjusted models (HR 0.99, 95% CI: 0.88, 1.11 for TG/HDL ratio and 1.10, 95% CI: 0.97, 1.23 for TC/HDL ratio). Further adjustment for waist circumference or body mass index, fasting plasma glucose, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol did not appreciably alter the hazard ratio compared with the age- and gender-adjusted model. The area under the ROC curve for TG/HDL ratio was 57.7% (95% CI: 54.0, 61.5) and for TC/HDL ratio was 55.1% (95% CI: 51.2, 59.0). TG/HDL and TC/HDL ratios were not robust predictors of T2D in high-risk individuals in Iran. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Teleplaneta: a 7 year-long effort to spread natural hazard's knowledge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvo, David; Álvarez, Domingo; Marrero, Nieves; Pérez, Nemesio M.

2016-04-01

One of the main and toughest goals for a geoscientist is to have a properly communication with the society when the time comes for showing results, scientific advances or whatever kind of remarkable event. The complexity of the scientific terminology, and the existence of a few communication channels, often prevents lay people to know about how the advance of science is occurring or how new discoveries are helping us to have a better understanding about the Planet Earth. In that respect, mass media provide the most powerful tool to enhance this communication, both radio and TV broadcasting, since the wealth of Earth-sciences' related information available on issues like global climate, water, energy and natural hazards remain largely unknown to the public and often untapped by policy and decision makers. Almost 75% of the Earth population lives in areas that had been hit, at least once in the last 20 years, by earthquakes, severe storms, flooding or droughts. TELEPLANETA is a joint effort of the Spanish National Public Television in the Canary Islands (RTVE-Canarias) and the Instituto Volcanológico de Canarias (INVOLCAN) for raising public awareness of the impact of these natural hazards in the society, with an understandable language away from too much technical terms but basically avoiding the gruesome side of this kind of events. TELEPLANETA tries to give a scientific explanation of why these hazards occur, focusing on the visual communication with the viewers. This weekly TV program is broadcasted through the worldwide coverage news channel - 24 Hours Channel - of the Spanish National Public TV (TVE). Actually immersed on our 7th season, TELEPLANETA has gone through a challenging improvement, from a barely 4 minute outsider program to a 20 minutes long, full enhanced TV show. We actually provide accurate information about natural hazards, but also a weekly review of twitteŕs best pictures and comments regarding nature, as well as scientific report at the most

Dietary Sodium to Potassium Ratio and Risk of Stroke in a Multiethnic Urban Population: The Northern Manhattan Study.

PubMed

Willey, Joshua; Gardener, Hannah; Cespedes, Sandino; Cheung, Ying K; Sacco, Ralph L; Elkind, Mitchell S V

2017-11-01

There is growing evidence that increased dietary sodium (Na) intake increases the risk of vascular diseases, including stroke, at least in part via an increase in blood pressure. Higher dietary potassium (K), seen with increased intake of fruits and vegetables, is associated with lower blood pressure. The goal of this study was to determine the association of a dietary Na:K with risk of stroke in a multiethnic urban population. Stroke-free participants from the Northern Manhattan Study, a population-based cohort study of stroke incidence, were followed-up for incident stroke. Baseline food frequency questionnaires were analyzed for Na and K intake. We estimated the hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the association of Na:K with incident total stroke using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. Among 2570 participants with dietary data (mean age, 69±10 years; 64% women; 21% white; 55% Hispanic; 24% black), the mean Na:K ratio was 1.22±0.43. Over a mean follow-up of 12 years, there were 274 strokes. In adjusted models, a higher Na:K ratio was associated with increased risk for stroke (hazard ratio, 1.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.2-2.1) and specifically ischemic stroke (hazard ratio, 1.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.2-2.1). Na:K intake is an independent predictor of stroke risk. Further studies are required to understand the joint effect of Na and K intake on risk of cardiovascular disease. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Neighborhood socioeconomic status at the age of 40 years and ischemic stroke before the age of 50 years: A nationwide cohort study from Sweden.

PubMed

Carlsson, Axel C; Li, Xinjun; Holzmann, Martin J; Ärnlöv, Johan; Wändell, Per; Gasevic, Danijela; Sundquist, Jan; Sundquist, Kristina

2017-10-01

Objective We aimed to study the association between neighborhood socioeconomic status at the age of 40 years and risk of ischemic stroke before the age of 50 years. Methods All individuals in Sweden were included if their 40th birthday occurred between 1998 and 2010. National registers were used to categorize neighborhood socioeconomic status into high, middle, and low and to retrieve information on incident ischemic strokes. Hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals were estimated. Results A total of 1,153,451 adults (women 48.9%) were followed for a mean of 5.5 years (SD 3.5 years), during which 1777 (0.30%) strokes among men and 1374 (0.24%) strokes among women were recorded. After adjustment for sex, marital status, education level, immigrant status, region of residence, and neighborhood services, there was a lower risk of stroke in residents from high-socioeconomic status neighborhoods (hazard ratio 0.87, 95% confidence interval 0.78-0.96), and an increased risk of stroke in adults from low-socioeconomic status neighborhoods (hazard ratio 1.16, 95% confidence interval 1.06-1.27), compared to their counterparts living in middle-socioeconomic status neighborhoods. After further adjustment for hospital diagnoses of hypertension, diabetes, heart failure, and atrial fibrillation prior to the age of 40, the higher risk in neighborhoods with low socioeconomic status was attenuated, but remained significant (hazard ratio 1.12, 95% confidence interval 1.02-1.23). Conclusions In a nationwide study of individuals between 40 and 50 years, we found that the risk of ischemic stroke differed depending on neighborhood socioeconomic status, which calls for increased efforts to prevent cardiovascular diseases in low socioeconomic status neighborhoods.

2016 one-year seismic hazard forecast for the Central and Eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Mark D.; Mueller, Charles S.; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Hoover, Susan M.; Llenos, Andrea L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Michael, Andrew J.; Rubinstein, Justin L.; McGarr, Arthur F.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.

2016-03-28

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has produced a 1-year seismic hazard forecast for 2016 for the Central and Eastern United States (CEUS) that includes contributions from both induced and natural earthquakes. The model assumes that earthquake rates calculated from several different time windows will remain relatively stationary and can be used to forecast earthquake hazard and damage intensity for the year 2016. This assessment is the first step in developing an operational earthquake forecast for the CEUS, and the analysis could be revised with updated seismicity and model parameters. Consensus input models consider alternative earthquake catalog durations, smoothing parameters, maximum magnitudes, and ground motion estimates, and represent uncertainties in earthquake occurrence and diversity of opinion in the science community. Ground shaking seismic hazard for 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year reaches 0.6 g (as a fraction of standard gravity [g]) in northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas, and about 0.2 g in the Raton Basin of Colorado and New Mexico, in central Arkansas, and in north-central Texas near Dallas. Near some areas of active induced earthquakes, hazard is higher than in the 2014 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model (NHSM) by more than a factor of 3; the 2014 NHSM did not consider induced earthquakes. In some areas, previously observed induced earthquakes have stopped, so the seismic hazard reverts back to the 2014 NSHM. Increased seismic activity, whether defined as induced or natural, produces high hazard. Conversion of ground shaking to seismic intensity indicates that some places in Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, and Arkansas may experience damage if the induced seismicity continues unabated. The chance of having Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) VI or greater (damaging earthquake shaking) is 5–12 percent per year in north-central Oklahoma and southern Kansas, similar to the chance of damage caused by natural earthquakes

Two models for evaluating landslide hazards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davis, J.C.; Chung, C.-J.; Ohlmacher, G.C.

2006-01-01

Two alternative procedures for estimating landslide hazards were evaluated using data on topographic digital elevation models (DEMs) and bedrock lithologies in an area adjacent to the Missouri River in Atchison County, Kansas, USA. The two procedures are based on the likelihood ratio model but utilize different assumptions. The empirical likelihood ratio model is based on non-parametric empirical univariate frequency distribution functions under an assumption of conditional independence while the multivariate logistic discriminant model assumes that likelihood ratios can be expressed in terms of logistic functions. The relative hazards of occurrence of landslides were estimated by an empirical likelihood ratio model and by multivariate logistic discriminant analysis. Predictor variables consisted of grids containing topographic elevations, slope angles, and slope aspects calculated from a 30-m DEM. An integer grid of coded bedrock lithologies taken from digitized geologic maps was also used as a predictor variable. Both statistical models yield relative estimates in the form of the proportion of total map area predicted to already contain or to be the site of future landslides. The stabilities of estimates were checked by cross-validation of results from random subsamples, using each of the two procedures. Cell-by-cell comparisons of hazard maps made by the two models show that the two sets of estimates are virtually identical. This suggests that the empirical likelihood ratio and the logistic discriminant analysis models are robust with respect to the conditional independent assumption and the logistic function assumption, respectively, and that either model can be used successfully to evaluate landslide hazards. ?? 2006.

Hazardous Waste Roundup

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Farenga, Stephen J.; Joyce, Beverly A.; Ness, Daniel

2004-01-01

According to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Americans generate approximately 1.6 million tons of hazardous household waste every year. When most people think of hazardous waste, they generally think of materials used in construction, the defense industry, mining, manufacturing, and agriculture. Few people think of hazardous substances…

Flood hazard, vulnerability, and risk assessment for human life

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, T.; Chang, T.; Lai, J.; Hsieh, M.; Tan, Y.; Lin, Y.

2011-12-01

Flood risk assessment is an important issue for the countries suffering tropical cyclones and monsoon. Taiwan is located in the hot zone of typhoon tracks in the Western Pacific. There are three to five typhoons landing Taiwan every year. Typhoons and heavy rainfalls often cause inundation disaster rising with the increase of population and the development of social economy. The purpose of this study is to carry out the flood hazard, vulnerability and risk in term of human life. Based on the concept that flood risk is composed by flood hazard and vulnerability, a inundation simulation is performed to evaluate the factors of flood hazard for human life according to base flood (100-year return period). The flood depth, velocity and rising ratio are the three factors of flood hazards. Furthermore, the factors of flood vulnerability are identified in terms of human life that are classified into two main factors, residents and environment. The sub factors related to residents are the density of population and the density of vulnerable people including elders, youngers and disabled persons. The sub factors related to environment include the the number of building floors, the locations of buildings, the and distance to rescue center. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is adopted to determine the weights of these factors. The risk matrix is applied to show the risk from low to high based on the evaluation of flood hazards and vulnerabilities. The Tseng-Wen River watershed is selected as the case study because a serious flood was induced by Typhoon Morakot in 2009, which produced a record-breaking rainfall of 2.361mm in 48 hours in the last 50 years. The results of assessing the flood hazard, vulnerability and risk in term of human life could improve the emergency operation for flood disaster to prepare enough relief goods and materials during typhoon landing.

Performance of USGS one-year earthquake hazard map for natural and induced seismicity in the central and eastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brooks, E. M.; Stein, S.; Spencer, B. D.; Salditch, L.; Petersen, M. D.; McNamara, D. E.

2017-12-01

Seismicity in the central United States has dramatically increased since 2008 due to the injection of wastewater produced by oil and gas extraction. In response, the USGS created a one-year probabilistic hazard model and map for 2016 to describe the increased hazard posed to the central and eastern United States. Using the intensity of shaking reported to the "Did You Feel It?" system during 2016, we assess the performance of this model. Assessing the performance of earthquake hazard maps for natural and induced seismicity is conceptually similar but has practical differences. Maps that have return periods of hundreds or thousands of years— as commonly used for natural seismicity— can be assessed using historical intensity data that also span hundreds or thousands of years. Several different features stand out when assessing the USGS 2016 seismic hazard model for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes. First, the model can be assessed as a forecast in one year, because event rates are sufficiently high to permit evaluation with one year of data. Second, because these models are projections from the previous year thus implicitly assuming that fluid injection rates remain the same, misfit may reflect changes in human activity. Our results suggest that the model was very successful by the metric implicit in probabilistic hazard seismic assessment: namely, that the fraction of sites at which the maximum shaking exceeded the mapped value is comparable to that expected. The model also did well by a misfit metric that compares the spatial patterns of predicted and maximum observed shaking. This was true for both the central and eastern United States as a whole, and for the region within it with the highest amount of seismicity, Oklahoma and its surrounding area. The model performed least well in northern Texas, over-stating hazard, presumably because lower oil and gas prices and regulatory action reduced the water injection volume

Landslide Hazards

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2000-01-01

Landslide hazards occur in many places around What Can You Do If You Live Near Steep Hills? the world and include fast-moving debris flows, slow-moving landslides, and a variety of flows and slides initiating from volcanoes. Each year, these hazards cost billions of dollars and cause numerous fatalities and injuries. Awareness and education about these hazards is a first step toward reducing damaging effects. The U.S. Geological Survey conducts research and distributes information about geologic hazards. This Fact Sheet is published in English and Spanish and can be reproduced in any form for further distribution. 

Action on Hazardous Wastes.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

EPA Journal, 1979

1979-01-01

U.S. EPA is gearing up to investigate about 300 hazardous waste dump sites per year that could pose an imminent health hazard. Prosecutions are expected to result from the priority effort at investigating illegal hazardous waste disposal. (RE)

Biennial report on hazardous materials transportation : calendar years 1996-1997

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-08-01

Hazardous materials (HM) are essential to the economy of the United States (U.S.) and the well-being : of its people. These materials fuel cars and trucks and heat and cool homes and offices. Hazardous : materials are used for farming and medical app...

Incidence and predictors of suicide attempts in DSM-IV major depressive disorder: a five-year prospective study.

PubMed

Holma, K Mikael; Melartin, Tarja K; Haukka, Jari; Holma, Irina A K; Sokero, T Petteri; Isometsä, Erkki T

2010-07-01

Prospective long-term studies of risk factors for suicide attempts among patients with major depressive disorder have not investigated the course of illness and state at the time of the act. Therefore, the importance of state factors, particularly time spent in risk states, for overall risk remains unknown. In the Vantaa Depression Study, a longitudinal 5-year evaluation of psychiatric patients with major depressive disorder, prospective information on 249 patients (92.6%) was available. Time spent in depressive states and the timing of suicide attempts were investigated with life charts. During the follow-up assessment period, there were 106 suicide attempts per 1,018 patient-years. The incidence rate per 1,000 patient-years during major depressive episodes was 21-fold (N=332 [95% confidence interval [CI]=258.6-419.2]), and it was fourfold during partial remission (N=62 [95% CI=34.6-92.4]) compared with full remission (N=16 [95% CI=11.2-40.2]). In the Cox proportional hazards model, suicide attempts were predicted by the months spent in a major depressive episode (hazard ratio=7.74 [95% CI=3.40-17.6]) or in partial remission (hazard ratio=4.20 [95% CI=1.71-10.3]), history of suicide attempts (hazard ratio=4.39 [95% CI=1.78-10.8]), age (hazard ratio=0.94 [95% CI=0.91-0.98]), lack of a partner (hazard ratio=2.33 [95% CI=0.97-5.56]), and low perceived social support (hazard ratio=3.57 [95% CI=1.09-11.1]). The adjusted population attributable fraction of the time spent depressed for suicide attempts was 78%. Among patients with major depressive disorder, incidence of suicide attempts varies markedly depending on the level of depression, being highest during major depressive episodes. Although previous attempts and poor social support also indicate risk, the time spent depressed is likely the major factor determining overall long-term risk.

Between-year variation in population sex ratio increases with complexity of the breeding system in Hymenoptera.

PubMed

Kümmerli, Rolf; Keller, Laurent

2011-06-01

While adaptive adjustment of sex ratio in the function of colony kin structure and food availability commonly occurs in social Hymenoptera, long-term studies have revealed substantial unexplained between-year variation in sex ratio at the population level. In order to identify factors that contribute to increased between-year variation in population sex ratio, we conducted a comparative analysis across 47 Hymenoptera species differing in their breeding system. We found that between-year variation in population sex ratio steadily increased as one moved from solitary species, to primitively eusocial species, to single-queen eusocial species, to multiple-queen eusocial species. Specifically, between-year variation in population sex ratio was low (6.6% of total possible variation) in solitary species, which is consistent with the view that in solitary species, sex ratio can vary only in response to fluctuations in ecological factors such as food availability. In contrast, we found significantly higher (19.5%) between-year variation in population sex ratio in multiple-queen eusocial species, which supports the view that in these species, sex ratio can also fluctuate in response to temporal changes in social factors such as queen number and queen-worker control over sex ratio, as well as factors influencing caste determination. The simultaneous adjustment of sex ratio in response to temporal fluctuations in ecological and social factors seems to preclude the existence of a single sex ratio optimum. The absence of such an optimum may reflect an additional cost associated with the evolution of complex breeding systems in Hymenoptera societies.

Association of the Aspartate Aminotransferase to Alanine Aminotransferase Ratio with BNP Level and Cardiovascular Mortality in the General Population: The Yamagata Study 10-Year Follow-Up

PubMed Central

Yokoyama, Miyuki; Otaki, Yoichiro; Takahashi, Hiroki; Arimoto, Takanori; Shishido, Tetsuro; Miyamoto, Takuya; Konta, Tsuneo; Shibata, Yoko; Daimon, Makoto; Kayama, Takamasa; Kubota, Isao

2016-01-01

Background. Early identification of high risk subjects for cardiovascular disease in health check-up is still unmet medical need. Cardiovascular disease is characterized by the superior increase in aspartate aminotransferase (AST) to alanine aminotransferase (ALT). However, the association of AST/ALT ratio with brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels and cardiovascular mortality remains unclear in the general population. Methods and Results. This longitudinal cohort study included 3,494 Japanese subjects who participated in a community-based health check-up, with a 10-year follow-up. The AST/ALT ratio increased with increasing BNP levels. And multivariate logistic analysis showed that the AST/ALT ratio was significantly associated with a high BNP (≥100 pg/mL). There were 250 all-cause deaths including 79 cardiovascular deaths. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analysis revealed that a high AST/ALT ratio (>90 percentile) was an independent predictor of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality after adjustment for confounding factors. Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated that cardiovascular mortality was higher in subjects with a high AST/ALT ratio than in those without. Conclusions. The AST/ALT ratio was associated with an increase in BNP and was predictive of cardiovascular mortality in a general population. Measuring the AST/ALT ratio during routine health check-ups may be a simple and cost-effective marker for cardiovascular mortality. PMID:27872510

2018 one‐year seismic hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Mark D.; Mueller, Charles; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Hoover, Susan M.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.; McNamara, Daniel E.; Williams, Robert A.; Shumway, Allison; Powers, Peter; Earle, Paul; Llenos, Andrea L.; Michael, Andrew J.; Rubinstein, Justin L.; Norbeck, Jack; Cochran, Elizabeth S.

2018-01-01

This article describes the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 2018 one‐year probabilistic seismic hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes. For consistency, the updated 2018 forecast is developed using the same probabilistic seismicity‐based methodology as applied in the two previous forecasts. Rates of earthquakes across the United States M≥3.0">M≥3.0 grew rapidly between 2008 and 2015 but have steadily declined over the past 3 years, especially in areas of Oklahoma and southern Kansas where fluid injection has decreased. The seismicity pattern in 2017 was complex with earthquakes more spatially dispersed than in the previous years. Some areas of west‐central Oklahoma experienced increased activity rates where industrial activity increased. Earthquake rates in Oklahoma (429 earthquakes of M≥3">M≥3 and 4 M≥4">M≥4), Raton basin (Colorado/New Mexico border, six earthquakes M≥3">M≥3), and the New Madrid seismic zone (11 earthquakes M≥3">M≥3) continue to be higher than historical levels. Almost all of these earthquakes occurred within the highest hazard regions of the 2017 forecast. Even though rates declined over the past 3 years, the short‐term hazard for damaging ground shaking across much of Oklahoma remains at high levels due to continuing high rates of smaller earthquakes that are still hundreds of times higher than at any time in the state’s history. Fine details and variability between the 2016–2018 forecasts are obscured by significant uncertainties in the input model. These short‐term hazard levels are similar to active regions in California. During 2017, M≥3">M≥3 earthquakes also occurred in or near Ohio, West Virginia, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Illinois, Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming.

Comparison of exact, efron and breslow parameter approach method on hazard ratio and stratified cox regression model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fatekurohman, Mohamat; Nurmala, Nita; Anggraeni, Dian

2018-04-01

Lungs are the most important organ, in the case of respiratory system. Problems related to disorder of the lungs are various, i.e. pneumonia, emphysema, tuberculosis and lung cancer. Comparing all those problems, lung cancer is the most harmful. Considering about that, the aim of this research applies survival analysis and factors affecting the endurance of the lung cancer patient using comparison of exact, Efron and Breslow parameter approach method on hazard ratio and stratified cox regression model. The data applied are based on the medical records of lung cancer patients in Jember Paru-paru hospital on 2016, east java, Indonesia. The factors affecting the endurance of the lung cancer patients can be classified into several criteria, i.e. sex, age, hemoglobin, leukocytes, erythrocytes, sedimentation rate of blood, therapy status, general condition, body weight. The result shows that exact method of stratified cox regression model is better than other. On the other hand, the endurance of the patients is affected by their age and the general conditions.

Changing tides: Adaptive monitoring, assessment, and management of pharmaceutical hazards in the environment through time.

PubMed

Gaw, Sally; Brooks, Bryan W

2016-04-01

Pharmaceuticals are ubiquitous contaminants in aquatic ecosystems. Adaptive monitoring, assessment, and management programs will be required to reduce the environmental hazards of pharmaceuticals of concern. Potentially underappreciated factors that drive the environmental dose of pharmaceuticals include regulatory approvals, marketing campaigns, pharmaceutical subsidies and reimbursement schemes, and societal acceptance. Sales data for 5 common antidepressants (duloxetine [Cymbalta], escitalopram [Lexapro], venlafaxine [Effexor], bupropion [Wellbutrin], and sertraline [Zoloft]) in the United States from 2004 to 2008 were modeled to explore how environmental hazards in aquatic ecosystems changed after patents were obtained or expired. Therapeutic hazard ratios for Effexor and Lexapro did not exceed 1; however, the therapeutic hazard ratio for Zoloft declined whereas the therapeutic hazard ratio for Cymbalta increased as a function of patent protection and sale patterns. These changes in therapeutic hazard ratios highlight the importance of considering current and future drivers of pharmaceutical use when prioritizing pharmaceuticals for water quality monitoring programs. When urban systems receiving discharges of environmental contaminants are examined, water quality efforts should identify, prioritize, and select target analytes presently in commerce for effluent monitoring and surveillance. © 2015 SETAC.

Podiatry impact on high-low amputation ratio characteristics: A 16-year retrospective study.

PubMed

Schmidt, Brian M; Wrobel, James S; Munson, Michael; Rothenberg, Gary; Holmes, Crystal M

2017-04-01

Complications from diabetes mellitus including major lower extremity amputation may have significant impact on a patient's mortality. This study determined what impact the addition of a limb salvage and diabetic foot program involving podiatry had at an academic institution over 16years by analyzing high-low amputation ratio data. The high-low amputation ratio in the diabetic population who underwent non-traumatic amputation of the lower extremity was retrospectively evaluated at an academic institution via cohort discovery of the electronic medical record and analysis of billing over 16years. We directly compared two eras, one without podiatry and one with a podiatry presence. It was found that with the addition of a podiatry program, limb salvage rates significantly increased (R 2 (without podiatry)=0.45, R 2 (with podiatry)=0.26), with a significant change in both the rate of limb salvage per year (-0.11% per year versus -0.36% per year; p<0.01) and an overall decrease in high-low amputation ratio (0.89 without podiatry to 0.60 with podiatry). Of note, approximately 40 major lower extremity amputations were avoided per year with the addition of a podiatry program (p<0.05). Our findings signify the importance of podiatric care in the diabetic population. With an established podiatry program present at an academic institution, major lower extremity amputations can be avoided and more limbs can be salvaged, thus preventing some of the moribund complications from this condition. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Carbon Structure Hazard Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yoder, Tommy; Greene, Ben; Porter, Alan

2015-01-01

Carbon composite structures are widely used in virtually all advanced technology industries for a multitude of applications. The high strength-to-weight ratio and resistance to aggressive service environments make them highly desirable. Automotive, aerospace, and petroleum industries extensively use, and will continue to use, this enabling technology. As a result of this broad range of use, field and test personnel are increasingly exposed to hazards associated with these structures. No single published document exists to address the hazards and make recommendations for the hazard controls required for the different exposure possibilities from damaged structures including airborne fibers, fly, and dust. The potential for personnel exposure varies depending on the application or manipulation of the structure. The effect of exposure to carbon hazards is not limited to personnel, protection of electronics and mechanical equipment must be considered as well. The various exposure opportunities defined in this document include pre-manufacturing fly and dust, the cured structure, manufacturing/machining, post-event cleanup, and post-event test and/or evaluation. Hazard control is defined as it is applicable or applied for the specific exposure opportunity. The carbon exposure hazard includes fly, dust, fiber (cured/uncured), and matrix vapor/thermal decomposition products. By using the recommendations in this document, a high level of confidence can be assured for the protection of personnel and equipment.

Association Between Cortisol to DHEA-s Ratio and Sickness Absence in Japanese Male Workers.

PubMed

Hirokawa, Kumi; Fujii, Yasuhito; Taniguchi, Toshiyo; Takaki, Jiro; Tsutsumi, Akizumi

2018-06-01

This study aimed to investigate the association between serum levels of cortisol and dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEA-s) and sickness absence over 2 years in Japanese male workers. A baseline survey including questions about health behavior, along with blood sampling for cortisol and DHEA-s, was conducted in 2009. In total, 429 men (mean ± SD age, 52.9 ± 8.6 years) from whom blood samples were collected at baseline were followed until December 31, 2011. The hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for sickness absence were calculated using a Cox proportional hazard model, adjusted for potential confounders. Among 35 workers who took sickness absences, 31 had physical illness. A high cortisol to DHEA-s ratio increased the risk of sickness absence (crude HR = 2.68, 95% CI 1.12-6.41; adjusted HR = 3.33, 95% CI 1.35-8.20). The cortisol to DHEA-s ratio was linearly associated with an increased risk of sickness absence (p for trend < .050). Single effects of cortisol and DHEA-s levels were not associated with sickness absences. This trend did not change when limited to absences resulting from physical illness. Hormonal conditions related to the hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenocortical axis and adrenal function should be considered when predicting sickness absence. The cortisol to DHEA-s ratio may be more informative than single effects of cortisol and DHEA-s levels.

Prechemotherapy neutrophil : lymphocyte ratio is superior to the platelet : lymphocyte ratio as a prognostic indicator for locally advanced esophageal squamous cell cancer treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy.

PubMed

Ji, W H; Jiang, Y H; Ji, Y L; Li, B; Mao, W M

2016-07-01

The study aimed to evaluate the prognostic significance of prechemotherapy neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio and platelet to lymphocyte ratio, and preoperative neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio and platelet to lymphocyte ratio in locally advanced esophageal squamous cell cancer. We analyzed retrospectively locally advanced esophageal squamous cell cancer patients who had received neoadjuvant chemotherapy before undergoing a radical esophagectomy between 2009 and 2012. Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio and platelet to lymphocyte ratio before chemotherapy and before the surgery were calculated. Univariate analyses showed that prechemotherapy neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio >5 (P = 0.048, hazard ratio = 2.86; 95% confidence interval: 1.01-8.12) and prechemotherapy platelet to lymphocyte ratio >130 (P = 0.025, hazard ratio = 5.50; 95% confidence interval: 1.23-24.55) were associated significantly with overall survival (OS), and prechemotherapy platelet to lymphocyte ratio >130 (P = 0.026, hazard ratio = 3.18; 95% confidence interval: 1.15-8.85) was associated significantly with progression-free survival. However, only prechemotherapy neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio >5 (P = 0.024, hazard ratio = 3.50; 95% confidence interval: 1.18-10.40) remained significantly associated with OS in multivariate analyses. Neither preoperative neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio nor platelet to lymphocyte ratio was associated with OS or progression-free survival. The prechemotherapy neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio >5 to preoperative neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio ≤5 group showed significantly worse OS than the prechemotherapy neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio ≤5 to preoperative neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio ≤5 group (P = 0.050). The prechemotherapy platelet to lymphocyte ratio >130 to preoperative platelet to lymphocyte ratio ≤130 group (P = 0.016) and platelet to lymphocyte ratio >130 to preoperative platelet to lymphocyte ratio >130 group (P = 0.042) showed significantly worse OS than the

Natural hazards science strategy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holmes, Robert R.; Jones, Lucile M.; Eidenshink, Jeffery C.; Godt, Jonathan W.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Love, Jeffrey J.; Neal, Christina A.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Plunkett, Michael L.; Weaver, Craig S.; Wein, Anne; Perry, Suzanne C.

2012-01-01

The mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in natural hazards is to develop and apply hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The costs and consequences of natural hazards can be enormous, and each year more people and infrastructure are at risk. USGS scientific research—founded on detailed observations and improved understanding of the responsible physical processes—can help to understand and reduce natural hazard risks and to make and effectively communicate reliable statements about hazard characteristics, such as frequency, magnitude, extent, onset, consequences, and where possible, the time of future events.To accomplish its broad hazard mission, the USGS maintains an expert workforce of scientists and technicians in the earth sciences, hydrology, biology, geography, social and behavioral sciences, and other fields, and engages cooperatively with numerous agencies, research institutions, and organizations in the public and private sectors, across the Nation and around the world. The scientific expertise required to accomplish the USGS mission in natural hazards includes a wide range of disciplines that this report refers to, in aggregate, as hazard science.In October 2010, the Natural Hazards Science Strategy Planning Team (H–SSPT) was charged with developing a long-term (10-year) Science Strategy for the USGS mission in natural hazards. This report fulfills that charge, with a document hereinafter referred to as the Strategy, to provide scientific observations, analyses, and research that are critical for the Nation to become more resilient to natural hazards. Science provides the information that decisionmakers need to determine whether risk management activities are worthwhile. Moreover, as the agency with the perspective of geologic time, the USGS is uniquely positioned to extend the collective experience of society to prepare for events outside current memory. The USGS has critical statutory

Association between stricter alcohol advertising regulations and lower hazardous drinking across European countries.

PubMed

Bosque-Prous, Marina; Espelt, Albert; Guitart, Anna M; Bartroli, Montserrat; Villalbí, Joan R; Brugal, M Teresa

2014-10-01

To analyse the association between alcohol advertising restrictions and the prevalence of hazardous drinking among people aged 50-64 years in 16 European countries, taking into account both individual and contextual-level factors (alcohol taxation, availability, etc.). Cross-sectional study based on SHARE project surveys. A total of 27 773 subjects, aged 50-64 years, from 16 European countries who participated in wave 4 of the SHARE (Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe) project. We estimated the prevalence of hazardous drinking (through adaptation of the SHARE questions to the scheme used by the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test Consumption (AUDIT-C) for each country. To determine whether the degree of advertising restrictions was associated with prevalence of hazardous drinking, we fitted robust variance multi-level Poisson models, adjusting for various individual and contextual variables. Prevalence ratios (PR) and their 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were obtained. The observed prevalence of hazardous drinking was 24.1%, varying by sex and country. Countries with greater advertising restrictions had lower prevalence of hazardous drinking: 30.6% (95% CI = 29.3-31.8) in countries with no restrictions, 20.3% (95% CI = 19.3-21.2) in countries with some restrictions and 14.4% (95% CI = 11.9-16.8) in those with greatest restrictions. The PR found (with respect to countries with greatest restrictions) were 1.36 (95% CI = 0.90-2.06) for countries with some restrictions and 1.95 (95% CI = 1.31-2.91) for those with no advertising restrictions. The extent of advertising restrictions in European countries is associated inversely with prevalence of hazardous drinking in people aged 50-64 years. © 2014 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Framing 100-year overflowing and overtopping marine submersion hazard resulting from the propagation of 100-year joint hydrodynamic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicolae Lerma, A.; Bulteau, T.; Elineau, S.; Paris, F.; Pedreros, R.

2016-12-01

Marine submersion is an increasing concern for coastal cities as urban development reinforces their vulnerabilities while climate change is likely to foster the frequency and magnitude of submersions. Characterising the coastal flooding hazard is therefore of paramount importance to ensure the security of people living in such places and for coastal planning. A hazard is commonly defined as an adverse phenomenon, often represented by a magnitude of a variable of interest (e.g. flooded area), hereafter called response variable, associated with a probability of exceedance or, alternatively, a return period. Characterising the coastal flooding hazard consists in finding the correspondence between the magnitude and the return period. The difficulty lies in the fact that the assessment is usually performed using physical numerical models taking as inputs scenarios composed by multiple forcing conditions that are most of the time interdependent. Indeed, a time series of the response variable is usually not available so we have to deal instead with time series of forcing variables (e.g. water level, waves). Thus, the problem is twofold: on the one hand, the definition of scenarios is a multivariate matter; on the other hand, it is tricky and approximate to associate the resulting response, being the output of the physical numerical model, to the return period defined for the scenarios. In this study, we illustrate the problem on the district of Leucate, located in the French Mediterranean coast. A multivariate extreme value analysis of waves and water levels is performed offshore using a conditional extreme model, then two different methods are used to define and select 100-year scenarios of forcing variables: one based on joint exceedance probability contours, a method classically used in coastal risks studies, the other based on environmental contours, which are commonly used in the field of structure design engineering. We show that these two methods enable one to

A Natural Hazards Workbook.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kohler, Fred

This paper discusses the development of and provides examples of exercises from a student workbook for a college-level course about natural hazards. The course is offered once a year to undergraduates at Western Illinois University. Students are introduced to 10 hazards (eight meteorological plus earthquakes and volcanoes) through slides, movies,…

Natural Hazards - A National Threat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geological Survey, U.S.

2007-01-01

The USGS Role in Reducing Disaster Losses -- In the United States each year, natural hazards cause hundreds of deaths and cost billions of dollars in disaster aid, disruption of commerce, and destruction of homes and critical infrastructure. Although the number of lives lost to natural hazards each year generally has declined, the economic cost of major disaster response and recovery continues to rise. Each decade, property damage from natural hazards events doubles or triples. The United States is second only to Japan in economic damages resulting from natural disasters. A major goal of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is to reduce the vulnerability of the people and areas most at risk from natural hazards. Working with partners throughout all sectors of society, the USGS provides information, products, and knowledge to help build more resilient communities.

The influence of maximum magnitude on seismic-hazard estimates in the Central and Eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mueller, C.S.

2010-01-01

I analyze the sensitivity of seismic-hazard estimates in the central and eastern United States (CEUS) to maximum magnitude (mmax) by exercising the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) probabilistic hazard model with several mmax alternatives. Seismicity-based sources control the hazard in most of the CEUS, but data seldom provide an objective basis for estimating mmax. The USGS uses preferred mmax values of moment magnitude 7.0 and 7.5 for the CEUS craton and extended margin, respectively, derived from data in stable continental regions worldwide. Other approaches, for example analysis of local seismicity or judgment about a source's seismogenic potential, often lead to much smaller mmax. Alternative models span the mmax ranges from the 1980s Electric Power Research Institute/Seismicity Owners Group (EPRI/SOG) analysis. Results are presented as haz-ard ratios relative to the USGS national seismic hazard maps. One alternative model specifies mmax equal to moment magnitude 5.0 and 5.5 for the craton and margin, respectively, similar to EPRI/SOG for some sources. For 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (about 0.0004 annual probability), the strong mmax truncation produces hazard ratios equal to 0.35-0.60 for 0.2-sec spectral acceleration, and 0.15-0.35 for 1.0-sec spectral acceleration. Hazard-controlling earthquakes interact with mmax in complex ways. There is a relatively weak dependence on probability level: hazardratios increase 0-15% for 0.002 annual exceedance probability and decrease 5-25% for 0.00001 annual exceedance probability. Although differences at some sites are tempered when faults are added, mmax clearly accounts for some of the discrepancies that are seen in comparisons between USGS-based and EPRI/SOG-based hazard results.

Canister Storage Building (CSB) Hazard Analysis Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

POWERS, T.B.

2000-03-16

This report describes the methodology used in conducting the Canister Storage Building (CSB) Hazard Analysis to support the final CSB Safety Analysis Report and documents the results. This report describes the methodology used in conducting the Canister Storage Building (CSB) hazard analysis to support the CSB final safety analysis report (FSAR) and documents the results. The hazard analysis process identified hazardous conditions and material-at-risk, determined causes for potential accidents, identified preventive and mitigative features, and qualitatively estimated the frequencies and consequences of specific occurrences. The hazard analysis was performed by a team of cognizant CSB operations and design personnel, safetymore » analysts familiar with the CSB, and technical experts in specialty areas. The material included in this report documents the final state of a nearly two-year long process. Attachment A provides two lists of hazard analysis team members and describes the background and experience of each. The first list is a complete list of the hazard analysis team members that have been involved over the two-year long process. The second list is a subset of the first list and consists of those hazard analysis team members that reviewed and agreed to the final hazard analysis documentation. The material included in this report documents the final state of a nearly two-year long process involving formal facilitated group sessions and independent hazard and accident analysis work. The hazard analysis process led to the selection of candidate accidents for further quantitative analysis. New information relative to the hazards, discovered during the accident analysis, was incorporated into the hazard analysis data in order to compile a complete profile of facility hazards. Through this process, the results of the hazard and accident analyses led directly to the identification of safety structures, systems, and components, technical safety requirements, and

Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard and Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marzocchi, W.; Neri, A.; Newhall, C. G.; Papale, P.

2007-08-01

Quantifying Long- and Short-Term Volcanic Hazard: Building Up a Common Strategy for Italian Volcanoes, Erice Italy, 8 November 2006 The term ``hazard'' can lead to some misunderstanding. In English, hazard has the generic meaning ``potential source of danger,'' but for more than 30 years [e.g., Fournier d'Albe, 1979], hazard has been also used in a more quantitative way, that reads, ``the probability of a certain hazardous event in a specific time-space window.'' However, many volcanologists still use ``hazard'' and ``volcanic hazard'' in purely descriptive and subjective ways. A recent meeting held in November 2006 at Erice, Italy, entitled ``Quantifying Long- and Short-Term Volcanic Hazard: Building up a Common Strategy for Italian Volcanoes'' (http://www.bo.ingv.it/erice2006) concluded that a more suitable term for the estimation of quantitative hazard is ``probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment'' (PVHA).

Seismic hazard maps for Haiti

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frankel, Arthur; Harmsen, Stephen; Mueller, Charles; Calais, Eric; Haase, Jennifer

2011-01-01

We have produced probabilistic seismic hazard maps of Haiti for peak ground acceleration and response spectral accelerations that include the hazard from the major crustal faults, subduction zones, and background earthquakes. The hazard from the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden, Septentrional, and Matheux-Neiba fault zones was estimated using fault slip rates determined from GPS measurements. The hazard from the subduction zones along the northern and southeastern coasts of Hispaniola was calculated from slip rates derived from GPS data and the overall plate motion. Hazard maps were made for a firm-rock site condition and for a grid of shallow shear-wave velocities estimated from topographic slope. The maps show substantial hazard throughout Haiti, with the highest hazard in Haiti along the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden and Septentrional fault zones. The Matheux-Neiba Fault exhibits high hazard in the maps for 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, although its slip rate is poorly constrained.

Near-Earth object hazardous impact: A Multi-Criteria Decision Making approach.

PubMed

Sánchez-Lozano, J M; Fernández-Martínez, M

2016-11-16

The impact of a near-Earth object (NEO) may release large amounts of energy and cause serious damage. Several NEO hazard studies conducted over the past few years provide forecasts, impact probabilities and assessment ratings, such as the Torino and Palermo scales. These high-risk NEO assessments involve several criteria, including impact energy, mass, and absolute magnitude. The main objective of this paper is to provide the first Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) approach to classify hazardous NEOs. Our approach applies a combination of two methods from a widely utilized decision making theory. Specifically, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) methodology is employed to determine the criteria weights, which influence the decision making, and the Technique for Order Performance by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) is used to obtain a ranking of alternatives (potentially hazardous NEOs). In addition, NEO datasets provided by the NASA Near-Earth Object Program are utilized. This approach allows the classification of NEOs by descending order of their TOPSIS ratio, a single quantity that contains all of the relevant information for each object.

Increasing resiliency to natural hazards - A strategic plan for the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Lucy; Bernknopf, Richard; Cannon, Susan; Cox, Dale A.; Gaydos, Len; Keeley, Jon; Kohler, Monica; Lee, Homa; Ponti, Daniel; Ross, Stephanie L.; Schwarzbach, Steven; Shulters, Michael; Ward, A. Wesley; Wein, Anne

2007-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is initiating a new project designed to improve resiliency to natural hazards in southern California through the application of science to community decision making and emergency response. The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project will assist the region’s communities to reduce their risk from natural hazards by directing new and existing research towards the community’s needs, improving monitoring technology, producing innovative products, and improving dissemination of the results. The natural hazards to be investigated in this project include coastal erosion, earthquakes, floods, landslides, tsunamis, and wildfires.Americans are more at risk from natural hazards now than at any other time in our Nation’s history. Southern California, in particular, has one of the Nation’s highest potentials for extreme catastrophic losses due to natural hazards, with estimates of expected losses exceeding $3 billion per year. These losses can only be reduced through the decisions of the southern California community itself. To be effective, these decisions must be guided by the best information about hazards, risk, and the cost-effectiveness of mitigation technologies. The USGS will work with collaborators to set the direction of the research and to create multi-hazard risk frameworks where communities can apply the results of scientific research to their decision-making processes. Partners include state, county, city, and public-lands government agencies, public and private utilities, companies with a significant impact and presence in southern California, academic researchers, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and local emergency response agencies.Prior to the writing of this strategic plan document, three strategic planning workshops were held in February and March 2006 at the USGS office in Pasadena to explore potential relationships. The goal of these planning

Seismic hazard in the eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mueller, Charles; Boyd, Oliver; Petersen, Mark D.; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Shumway, Allison

2015-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey seismic hazard maps for the central and eastern United States were updated in 2014. We analyze results and changes for the eastern part of the region. Ratio maps are presented, along with tables of ground motions and deaggregations for selected cities. The Charleston fault model was revised, and a new fault source for Charlevoix was added. Background seismicity sources utilized an updated catalog, revised completeness and recurrence models, and a new adaptive smoothing procedure. Maximum-magnitude models and ground motion models were also updated. Broad, regional hazard reductions of 5%–20% are mostly attributed to new ground motion models with stronger near-source attenuation. The revised Charleston fault geometry redistributes local hazard, and the new Charlevoix source increases hazard in northern New England. Strong increases in mid- to high-frequency hazard at some locations—for example, southern New Hampshire, central Virginia, and eastern Tennessee—are attributed to updated catalogs and/or smoothing.

Prospective association between tobacco smoking and death by suicide: a competing risks hazard analysis in a large twin cohort with 35-year follow-up.

PubMed

Evins, A E; Korhonen, T; Kinnunen, T H; Kaprio, J

2017-09-01

The relationship between smoking and suicide remains controversial. A total of 16 282 twin pairs born before 1958 in Finland and alive in 1974 were queried with detailed health and smoking questionnaires in 1975 and 1981, with response rates of 89% and 84%. Smoking status and dose, marital, employment, and socio-economic status, and indicators of psychiatric and somatic illness were assessed at both time points. Emergent psychiatric and medical illness and vital status, including suicide determined by forensic autopsy, were evaluated over 35-year follow-up through government registries. The association between smoking and suicide was determined in competing risks hazard models. In twin pairs discordant for smoking and suicide, the prospective association between smoking and suicide was determined using a matched case-control design. Smokers had a higher cumulative suicide incidence than former or never smokers. Heavy smokers had significantly higher suicide risk [hazard ratio (HR) 3.47, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.31-5.22] than light smokers (HR 2.30, 95% CI 1.61-3.23) (p = 0.017). Compared with never smokers, smokers, but not former smokers, had increased suicide risk (HR 2.56, 95% CI 1.43-4.59), adjusting for depressive symptoms, alcohol and sedative-hypnotic use, and excluding those who developed serious somatic or psychiatric illness. In twin pairs discordant for smoking and suicide, suicide was more likely in smokers [odds ratio (OR) 6.0, 95% CI 2.06-23.8]. Adults who smoked tobacco were more likely to die by suicide, with a large, dose-dependent effect. This effect remained after consideration of many known predictors of suicide and shared familial effects, consistent with the hypothesis that exposure to tobacco smoke increases the risk of suicide.

Exercise capacity and all-cause mortality in male veterans with hypertension aged ≥70 years.

PubMed

Faselis, Charles; Doumas, Michael; Pittaras, Andreas; Narayan, Puneet; Myers, Jonathan; Tsimploulis, Apostolos; Kokkinos, Peter

2014-07-01

Aging, even in otherwise healthy subjects, is associated with declines in muscle mass, strength, and aerobic capacity. Older individuals respond favorably to exercise, suggesting that physical inactivity plays an important role in age-related functional decline. Conversely, physical activity and improved exercise capacity are associated with lower mortality risk in hypertensive individuals. However, the effect of exercise capacity in older hypertensive individuals has not been investigated extensively. A total of 2153 men with hypertension, aged ≥70 years (mean, 75 ± 4) from the Washington, DC, and Palo Alto Veterans Affairs Medical Centers, underwent routine exercise tolerance testing. Peak workload was estimated in metabolic equivalents (METs). Fitness categories were established based on peak METs achieved, adjusted for age: very-low-fit, 2.0 to 4.0 METs (n=386); low-fit, 4.1 to 6.0 METs (n=1058); moderate-fit, 6.1 to 8.0 METs (n=495); high-fit >8.0 METs (n=214). Cox proportional hazard models were applied after adjusting for age, body mass index, race, cardiovascular disease, cardiovascular medications, and risk factors. All-cause mortality was quantified during a mean follow-up period of 9.0 ± 5.5 years. There were a total of 1039 deaths or 51.2 deaths per 1000 person-years of follow-up. Mortality risk was 11% lower (hazard ratio, 0.89; 95% confidence interval, 0.86-0.93; P<0.001) for every 1-MET increase in exercise capacity. When compared with those achieving ≤4.0 METs, mortality risk was 18% lower (hazard ratio, 0.82; 95% confidence interval, 0.70-0.95; P=0.011) for the low-fit, 36% for the moderate-fit (hazard ratio, 0.64; 95% confidence interval, 0.52-0.78; P<0.001), and 48% for the high-fit individuals (hazard ratio, 0.52; 95% confidence interval, 0.39-0.69; P<0.001). These findings suggest that exercise capacity is associated with lower mortality risk in elderly men with hypertension. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Communicating Volcanic Hazards in the North Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dehn, J.; Webley, P.; Cunningham, K. W.

2014-12-01

For over 25 years, effective hazard communication has been key to effective mitigation of volcanic hazards in the North Pacific. These hazards are omnipresent, with a large event happening in Alaska every few years to a decade, though in many cases can happen with little or no warning (e.g. Kasatochi and Okmok in 2008). Here a useful hazard mitigation strategy has been built on (1) a large database of historic activity from many datasets, (2) an operational alert system with graduated levels of concern, (3) scenario planning, and (4) routine checks and communication with emergency managers and the public. These baseline efforts are then enhanced in the time of crisis with coordinated talking points, targeted studies and public outreach. Scientists naturally tend to target other scientists as their audience, whereas in effective monitoring of hazards that may only occur on year to decadal timescales, details can distract from the essentially important information. Creating talking points and practice in public communications can help make hazard response a part of the culture. Promoting situational awareness and familiarity can relieve indecision and concerns at the time of a crisis.

The NHLBI LAM Registry: Prognostic physiological and radiological biomarkers emerge from a 15-year prospective longitudinal analysis.

PubMed

Gupta, Nishant; Lee, Hye-Seung; Ryu, Jay H; Taveira-DaSilva, Angelo M; Beck, Gerald J; Lee, Jar-Chi; McCarthy, Kevin; Finlay, Geraldine A; Brown, Kevin K; Ruoss, Stephen J; Avila, Nilo A; Moss, Joel; McCormack, Francis X

2018-06-22

The natural history of lymphangioleiomyomatosis is mainly derived from retrospective cohort analyses and remains incompletely understood. A National Institutes of Health LAM Registry was established to define the natural history and identify prognostic biomarkers that can help guide management and decision-making in patients with LAM. A linear mixed effects model was employed to compute the rate of decline of FEV1, and identify variables impacting FEV1 decline among 217 registry patients who enrolled from 1998-2001. Prognostic variables associated with progression to death/lung transplantation were identified using a Cox proportional hazard model. Mean annual decline of FEV1 was 89±53 ml/year, and remained remarkably constant regardless of baseline lung function. FEV1 decline was more rapid in those with greater cyst profusion on CT scan (p=0.02), and in premenopausal subjects (118ml/year) compared to postmenopausal subjects (74ml/year), (p=0.003). There were 26 deaths and 43 lung transplants during the evaluation period. Estimated 5-, 10-, 15-, and 20-year transplant-free survival rates were 95%, 85%, 75%, and 64%, respectively. Postmenopausal status (hazard ratio 0.30, p=0.0002) and higher baseline FEV1 (hazard ratio 0.97, p=0.008) or DLCO (hazard ratio 0.97, p=0.001) were independently associated with a lower risk of progression to death or lung transplantation. The median transplant-free survival in patients with LAM is greater than 20 years. Menopausal status as well as structural and physiological markers of disease severity significantly affect the rate of decline of FEV1 and progression to death or lung transplantation in LAM. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Is copeptin level associated with 1-year mortality after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest? Insights from the Paris registry*.

PubMed

Geri, Guillaume; Dumas, Florence; Chenevier-Gobeaux, Camille; Bouglé, Adrien; Daviaud, Fabrice; Morichau-Beauchant, Tristan; Jouven, Xavier; Mira, Jean-Paul; Pène, Frédéric; Empana, Jean-Philippe; Cariou, Alain

2015-02-01

The availability of circulating biomarkers that helps to identify early out-of-hospital cardiac arrest survivors who are at increased risk of long-term mortality remains challenging. Our aim was to prospectively study the association between copeptin and 1-year mortality in patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest admitted in a tertiary cardiac arrest center. Retrospective monocenter study. Tertiary cardiac arrest center in Paris, France. Copeptin was assessed at admission and day 3. Pre- and intrahospital factors associated with 1-year mortality were analyzed by multivariate Cox proportional analysis. None. Two hundred ninety-eight consecutive out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients (70.3% male; median age, 60.2 yr [49.9-71.4]) were admitted in a tertiary cardiac arrest center in Paris (France). After multivariate analysis, higher admission copeptin was associated with 1-year mortality with a threshold effect (hazard ratio(5th vs 1st quintile) = 1.64; 95% CI, 1.05-2.58; p = 0.03). Day 3 copeptin was associated with 1-year mortality in a dose-dependent manner (hazard ratio(2nd vs 1st quintile) = 1.87; 95% CI, 1.00-3.49; p = 0.05; hazard ratio(3rd vs 1st quintile) = 1.92; 95% CI, 1.02-3.64; p = 0.04; hazard ratio(4th vs 1st quintile) = 2.12; 95% CI, 1.14-3.93; p = 0.02; and hazard ratio(5th vs 1st quintile) = 2.75; 95% CI, 1.47-5.15; p < 0.01; p for trend < 0.01). For both admission and day 3 copeptin, association with 1-year mortality existed for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest of cardiac origin only (p for interaction = 0.05 and < 0.01, respectively). When admission and day 3 copeptin were mutually adjusted, only day 3 copeptin remained associated with 1-year mortality in a dose-dependent manner (p for trend = 0.01). High levels of copeptin were associated with 1-year mortality independently from prehospital and intrahospital risk factors, especially in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest of cardiac origin. Day 3 copeptin was superior to admission copeptin: this

A Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Study of the Auckland Region, Part II: Inundation Modelling and Hazard Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lane, E. M.; Gillibrand, P. A.; Wang, X.; Power, W.

2013-09-01

Regional source tsunamis pose a potentially devastating hazard to communities and infrastructure on the New Zealand coast. But major events are very uncommon. This dichotomy of infrequent but potentially devastating hazards makes realistic assessment of the risk challenging. Here, we describe a method to determine a probabilistic assessment of the tsunami hazard by regional source tsunamis with an "Average Recurrence Interval" of 2,500-years. The method is applied to the east Auckland region of New Zealand. From an assessment of potential regional tsunamigenic events over 100,000 years, the inundation of the Auckland region from the worst 100 events is modelled using a hydrodynamic model and probabilistic inundation depths on a 2,500-year time scale were determined. Tidal effects on the potential inundation were included by coupling the predicted wave heights with the probability density function of tidal heights at the inundation site. Results show that the more exposed northern section of the east coast and outer islands in the Hauraki Gulf face the greatest hazard from regional tsunamis in the Auckland region. Incorporating tidal effects into predictions of inundation reduced the predicted hazard compared to modelling all the tsunamis arriving at high tide giving a more accurate hazard assessment on the specified time scale. This study presents the first probabilistic analysis of dynamic modelling of tsunami inundation for the New Zealand coast and as such provides the most comprehensive assessment of tsunami inundation of the Auckland region from regional source tsunamis available to date.

The utility of the apolipoprotein A1 remnant ratio in predicting incidence coronary heart disease in a primary prevention cohort: The Jackson Heart Study.

PubMed

May, Heidi T; Nelson, John R; Lirette, Seth T; Kulkarni, Krishnaji R; Anderson, Jeffrey L; Griswold, Michael E; Horne, Benjamin D; Correa, Adolfo; Muhlestein, Joseph B

2016-05-01

Dyslipidemia plays a significant role in the progression of cardiovascular disease. The apolipoprotein (apo) A1 remnant ratio (apo A1/VLDL3-C + IDL-C) has recently been shown to be a strong predictor of death/myocardial infarction risk among women >50 years undergoing angiography. However, whether this ratio is associated with coronary heart disease risk among other populations is unknown. We evaluated the apo A1 remnant ratio and its components for coronary heart disease incidence. Observational. Participants (N = 4722) of the Jackson Heart Study were evaluated. Baseline clinical characteristics and lipoprotein subfractions (Vertical Auto Profile method) were collected. Cox hazard regression analysis, adjusted by standard cardiovascular risk factors, was utilized to determine associations of lipoproteins with coronary heart disease. Those with new-onset coronary heart disease were older, diabetic, smokers, had less education, used more lipid-lowering medication, and had a more atherogenic lipoprotein profile. After adjustment, the apo A1 remnant ratio (hazard ratio = 0.67 per 1-SD, p = 0.002) was strongly associated with coronary heart disease incidence. This association appears to be driven by the IDL-C denominator (hazard ratio = 1.23 per 1-SD, p = 0.007). Remnants (hazard ratio = 1.21 per 1-SD, p = 0.017), but not apo A1 (hazard ratio = 0.85 per 1-SD, p = 0.121) or VLDL3-C (hazard ratio = 1.13 per 1-SD, p = 0.120) were associated with coronary heart disease. Standard lipids were not associated with coronary heart disease incidence. We found the apo A1 remnant ratio to be strongly associated with coronary heart disease. This ratio appears to better stratify risk than standard lipids, apo A1, and remnants among a primary prevention cohort of African Americans. Its utility requires further study as a lipoprotein management target for risk reduction. © The European Society of Cardiology 2015.

Quantification of hazard prediction ability at hazard prediction training (Kiken-Yochi Training: KYT) by free-response receiver-operating characteristic (FROC) analysis.

PubMed

Hashida, Masahiro; Kamezaki, Ryousuke; Goto, Makoto; Shiraishi, Junji

2017-03-01

The ability to predict hazards in possible situations in a general X-ray examination room created for Kiken-Yochi training (KYT) is quantified by use of free-response receiver-operating characteristics (FROC) analysis for determining whether the total number of years of clinical experience, involvement in general X-ray examinations, occupation, and training each have an impact on the hazard prediction ability. Twenty-three radiological technologists (RTs) (years of experience: 2-28), four nurses (years of experience: 15-19), and six RT students observed 53 scenes of KYT: 26 scenes with hazardous points (hazardous points are those that might cause injury to patients) and 27 scenes without points. Based on the results of these observations, we calculated the alternative free-response receiver-operating characteristic (AFROC) curve and the figure of merit (FOM) to quantify the hazard prediction ability. The results showed that the total number of years of clinical experience did not have any impact on hazard prediction ability, whereas recent experience with general X-ray examinations greatly influenced this ability. In addition, the hazard prediction ability varied depending on the occupations of the observers while they were observing the same scenes in KYT. The hazard prediction ability of the radiologic technology students was improved after they had undergone patient safety training. This proposed method with FROC observer study enabled the quantification and evaluation of the hazard prediction capability, and the application of this approach to clinical practice may help to ensure the safety of examinations and treatment in the radiology department.

High normal urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio predicts development of hypertension in Korean men.

PubMed

Park, Sung Keun; Moon, Soo Young; Oh, Chang-Mo; Ryoo, Jae-Hong; Park, Min Suk

2014-01-01

Microalbuminuria is known as a risk factor for hypertension. Recently it was suggested that urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR), even within the normal range, can be associated with hypertension, but the temporal relationship between normal range UACR and hypertension was not confirmed. Therefore the aim of this study was to verify an association between normal range UACR and the development of hypertension in Korean men. This prospective cohort study was performed on 1,284 initially non-hypertensive Korean men. The total follow-up period was 4,109.5 person-years and the mean follow-up period was 3.2±1.51 years. Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the hazard ratios (HR) for the risk of hypertension development. After adjusting for multiple covariates, the HR (95% confidence interval [CI]) for incident hypertension, comparing the second to the fourth quartiles of UACR level to the first quartile, were 1.35 (95% CI: 0.93-1.97), 1.55 (95% CI: 1.07-2.25) and 1.89 (95% CI: 1.31-2.71), respectively (P for trend=0.001). High UACR within the normal range was significantly associated with hypertension development. Furthermore, this association remained significant after adjusting for multiple baseline covariates. 

Hazardous waste: cleanup and prevention

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vandas, Stephen; Cronin, Nancy L.; Farrar, Frank; Serrano, Guillermo Eliezer Ávila; Yajimovich, Oscar Efraín González; Muñoz, Aurora R.; Rivera, María del C.

1996-01-01

Our lifestyles are supported by complex Industrial activities that produce many different chemicals and chemical wastes. The Industries that produce our clothing, cars, medicines, paper, food, fuels, steel, plastics, and electric components use and discard thousands of chemicals every year. At home we may use lawn chemicals, solvents, disinfectants, cleaners, and auto products to Improve our quality of life. A chemical that presents a threat or unreasonable risk to people or the environment Is a hazardous material. When a hazardous material can no longer be used, It becomes a hazardous waste. Hazardous wastes come from a variety of sources, from both present and past activities. Impacts to human health and the environment can result from Improper handling and disposal of hazardous waste.

Increased Rate of Hospitalization for Diabetes and Residential Proximity of Hazardous Waste Sites

PubMed Central

Kouznetsova, Maria; Huang, Xiaoyu; Ma, Jing; Lessner, Lawrence; Carpenter, David O.

2007-01-01

Background Epidemiologic studies suggest that there may be an association between environmental exposure to persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and diabetes. Objective The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that residential proximity to POP-contaminated waste sites result in increased rates of hospitalization for diabetes. Methods We determined the number of hospitalized patients 25–74 years of age diagnosed with diabetes in New York State exclusive of New York City for the years 1993–2000. Descriptive statistics and negative binomial regression were used to compare diabetes hospitalization rates in individuals who resided in ZIP codes containing or abutting hazardous waste sites containing POPs (“POP” sites); ZIP codes containing hazardous waste sites but with wastes other than POPs (“other” sites); and ZIP codes without any identified hazardous waste sites (“clean” sites). Results Compared with the hospitalization rates for diabetes in clean sites, the rate ratios for diabetes discharges for people residing in POP sites and “other” sites, after adjustment for potential confounders were 1.23 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.15–1.32] and 1.25 (95% CI, 1.16–1.34), respectively. In a subset of POP sites along the Hudson River, where there is higher income, less smoking, better diet, and more exercise, the rate ratio was 1.36 (95% CI, 1.26–1.47) compared to clean sites. Conclusions After controlling for major confounders, we found a statistically significant increase in the rate of hospitalization for diabetes among the population residing in the ZIP codes containing toxic waste sites. PMID:17366823

Five-Year Outcomes with PCI Guided by Fractional Flow Reserve.

PubMed

Xaplanteris, Panagiotis; Fournier, Stephane; Pijls, Nico H J; Fearon, William F; Barbato, Emanuele; Tonino, Pim A L; Engstrøm, Thomas; Kääb, Stefan; Dambrink, Jan-Henk; Rioufol, Gilles; Toth, Gabor G; Piroth, Zsolt; Witt, Nils; Fröbert, Ole; Kala, Petr; Linke, Axel; Jagic, Nicola; Mates, Martin; Mavromatis, Kreton; Samady, Habib; Irimpen, Anand; Oldroyd, Keith; Campo, Gianluca; Rothenbühler, Martina; Jüni, Peter; De Bruyne, Bernard

2018-05-22

Background We hypothesized that fractional flow reserve (FFR)-guided percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) would be superior to medical therapy as initial treatment in patients with stable coronary artery disease. Methods Among 1220 patients with angiographically significant stenoses, those in whom at least one stenosis was hemodynamically significant (FFR, ≤0.80) were randomly assigned to FFR-guided PCI plus medical therapy or to medical therapy alone. Patients in whom all stenoses had an FFR of more than 0.80 received medical therapy and were entered into a registry. The primary end point was a composite of death, myocardial infarction, or urgent revascularization. Results A total of 888 patients underwent randomization (447 patients in the PCI group and 441 in the medical-therapy group). At 5 years, the rate of the primary end point was lower in the PCI group than in the medical-therapy group (13.9% vs. 27.0%; hazard ratio, 0.46; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.34 to 0.63; P<0.001). The difference was driven by urgent revascularizations, which occurred in 6.3% of the patients in the PCI group as compared with 21.1% of those in the medical-therapy group (hazard ratio, 0.27; 95% CI, 0.18 to 0.41). There were no significant differences between the PCI group and the medical-therapy group in the rates of death (5.1% and 5.2%, respectively; hazard ratio, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.55 to 1.75) or myocardial infarction (8.1% and 12.0%; hazard ratio, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.43 to 1.00). There was no significant difference in the rate of the primary end point between the PCI group and the registry cohort (13.9% and 15.7%, respectively; hazard ratio, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.55 to 1.39). Relief from angina was more pronounced after PCI than after medical therapy. Conclusions In patients with stable coronary artery disease, an initial FFR-guided PCI strategy was associated with a significantly lower rate of the primary composite end point of death, myocardial infarction, or urgent

The prospect of hazardous sludge reduction through gasification process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hakiki, R.; Wikaningrum, T.; Kurniawan, T.

2018-01-01

Biological sludge generated from centralized industrial WWTP is classified as toxic and hazardous waste based on the Indonesian’s Government Regulation No. 101/2014. The amount of mass and volume of sludge produced have an impact in the cost to manage or to dispose. The main objective of this study is to identify the opportunity of gasification technology which can be applied to reduce hazardous sludge quantity before sending to the final disposal. This preliminary study covers the technical and economic assessment of the application of gasification process, which was a combination of lab-scale experimental results and assumptions based on prior research. The results showed that the process was quite effective in reducing the amount and volume of hazardous sludge which results in reducing the disposal costs without causing negative impact on the environment. The reduced mass are moisture and volatile carbon which are decomposed, while residues are fix carbon and other minerals which are not decomposed by thermal process. The economical simulation showed that the project will achieve payback period in 2.5 years, IRR value of 53 % and BC Ratio of 2.3. The further study in the pilot scale to obtain the more accurate design and calculations is recommended.

Biennial report on hazardous materials transportation : calendar years 1994-1995

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-01-01

Hazardous materials (HM) are substances or : materials determined by the U.S. Department of : Transportation (DOT), or otherwise specified : by statute, to have inherent characteristics, : which may pose an unreasonable risk to the : public's health ...

Workplace health hazards: Analysis of hotline calls over a six-year period

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Quint, J.; Handley, M.; Cummings, K.

1990-02-01

Between 1981-1986 a state-based occupational health telephone hotline received more than 8,000 inquiries on over 3,000 hazardous agents. Major caller groups were employees (37%), employers (20%), health care providers, primarily physicians (19%), government agencies (12%), and labor unions (6%). Employees were the fastest growing caller group. Callers inquired about general health hazards of chemicals (65%), the relation of symptoms to work (22%), and risks to pregnancy (13%).

An approach to trial design and analysis in the era of non-proportional hazards of the treatment effect.

PubMed

Royston, Patrick; Parmar, Mahesh K B

2014-08-07

Most randomized controlled trials with a time-to-event outcome are designed and analysed under the proportional hazards assumption, with a target hazard ratio for the treatment effect in mind. However, the hazards may be non-proportional. We address how to design a trial under such conditions, and how to analyse the results. We propose to extend the usual approach, a logrank test, to also include the Grambsch-Therneau test of proportional hazards. We test the resulting composite null hypothesis using a joint test for the hazard ratio and for time-dependent behaviour of the hazard ratio. We compute the power and sample size for the logrank test under proportional hazards, and from that we compute the power of the joint test. For the estimation of relevant quantities from the trial data, various models could be used; we advocate adopting a pre-specified flexible parametric survival model that supports time-dependent behaviour of the hazard ratio. We present the mathematics for calculating the power and sample size for the joint test. We illustrate the methodology in real data from two randomized trials, one in ovarian cancer and the other in treating cellulitis. We show selected estimates and their uncertainty derived from the advocated flexible parametric model. We demonstrate in a small simulation study that when a treatment effect either increases or decreases over time, the joint test can outperform the logrank test in the presence of both patterns of non-proportional hazards. Those designing and analysing trials in the era of non-proportional hazards need to acknowledge that a more complex type of treatment effect is becoming more common. Our method for the design of the trial retains the tools familiar in the standard methodology based on the logrank test, and extends it to incorporate a joint test of the null hypothesis with power against non-proportional hazards. For the analysis of trial data, we propose the use of a pre-specified flexible parametric model

Occupational health hazards in veterinary medicine: Zoonoses and other biological hazards

PubMed Central

Epp, Tasha; Waldner, Cheryl

2012-01-01

This study describes biological hazards reported by veterinarians working in western Canada obtained through a self-administered mailed questionnaire. The potential occupational hazards included as biological hazards were zoonotic disease events, exposure to rabies, injuries due to bites and scratches, and allergies. Only 16.7% (136/812) of responding veterinarians reported the occurrence of a zoonosis or exposure to rabies in the past 5 years; the most commonly reported event was ringworm. Most bites and scratches (86%) described by 586 veterinarians involved encounters with cats; 81% of the resulting 163 infections were due to cat bites or scratches. Approximately 38% of participants reported developing an allergy during their career, with 41% of the affected individuals altering the way they practiced in response to their allergy. PMID:22851775

Workplace health hazards: analysis of hotline calls over a six-year period.

PubMed Central

Quint, J; Handley, M; Cummings, K

1990-01-01

Between 1981-1986 a state-based occupational health telephone hotline received more than 8,000 inquiries on over 3,000 hazardous agents. Major caller groups were employees (37%), employers (20%), health care providers, primarily physicians (19%), government agencies (12%), and labor unions (6%). Employees were the fastest growing caller group. Callers inquired about general health hazards of chemicals (65%), the relation of symptoms to work (22%), and risks to pregnancy (13%). PMID:2297067

USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frankel, A.D.; Mueller, C.S.; Barnhard, T.P.; Leyendecker, E.V.; Wesson, R.L.; Harmsen, S.C.; Klein, F.W.; Perkins, D.M.; Dickman, N.C.; Hanson, S.L.; Hopper, M.G.

2000-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) recently completed new probabilistic seismic hazard maps for the United States, including Alaska and Hawaii. These hazard maps form the basis of the probabilistic component of the design maps used in the 1997 edition of the NEHRP Recommended Provisions for Seismic Regulations for New Buildings and Other Structures, prepared by the Building Seismic Safety Council arid published by FEMA. The hazard maps depict peak horizontal ground acceleration and spectral response at 0.2, 0.3, and 1.0 sec periods, with 10%, 5%, and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years, corresponding to return times of about 500, 1000, and 2500 years, respectively. In this paper we outline the methodology used to construct the hazard maps. There are three basic components to the maps. First, we use spatially smoothed historic seismicity as one portion of the hazard calculation. In this model, we apply the general observation that moderate and large earthquakes tend to occur near areas of previous small or moderate events, with some notable exceptions. Second, we consider large background source zones based on broad geologic criteria to quantify hazard in areas with little or no historic seismicity, but with the potential for generating large events. Third, we include the hazard from specific fault sources. We use about 450 faults in the western United States (WUS) and derive recurrence times from either geologic slip rates or the dating of pre-historic earthquakes from trenching of faults or other paleoseismic methods. Recurrence estimates for large earthquakes in New Madrid and Charleston, South Carolina, were taken from recent paleoliquefaction studies. We used logic trees to incorporate different seismicity models, fault recurrence models, Cascadia great earthquake scenarios, and ground-motion attenuation relations. We present disaggregation plots showing the contribution to hazard at four cities from potential earthquakes with various magnitudes and

Considerations in comparing the U.S. Geological Survey one‐year induced‐seismicity hazard models with “Did You Feel It?” and instrumental data

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, Isabel; Liu, Taojun; Luco, Nicolas; Liel, Abbie

2017-01-01

The recent steep increase in seismicity rates in Oklahoma, southern Kansas, and other parts of the central United States led the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to develop, for the first time, a probabilistic seismic hazard forecast for one year (2016) that incorporates induced seismicity. In this study, we explore a process to ground‐truth the hazard model by comparing it with two databases of observations: modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) data from the “Did You Feel It?” (DYFI) system and peak ground acceleration (PGA) values from instrumental data. Because the 2016 hazard model was heavily based on earthquake catalogs from 2014 to 2015, this initial comparison utilized observations from these years. Annualized exceedance rates were calculated with the DYFI and instrumental data for direct comparison with the model. These comparisons required assessment of the options for converting hazard model results and instrumental data from PGA to MMI for comparison with the DYFI data. In addition, to account for known differences that affect the comparisons, the instrumental PGA and DYFI data were declustered, and the hazard model was adjusted for local site conditions. With these adjustments, examples at sites with the most data show reasonable agreement in the exceedance rates. However, the comparisons were complicated by the spatial and temporal completeness of the instrumental and DYFI observations. Furthermore, most of the DYFI responses are in the MMI II–IV range, whereas the hazard model is oriented toward forecasts at higher ground‐motion intensities, usually above about MMI IV. Nevertheless, the study demonstrates some of the issues that arise in making these comparisons, thereby informing future efforts to ground‐truth and improve hazard modeling for induced‐seismicity applications.

Aortic Cross-Sectional Area/Height Ratio and Outcomes in Patients With Bicuspid Aortic Valve and a Dilated Ascending Aorta.

PubMed

Masri, Ahmad; Kalahasti, Vidyasagar; Svensson, Lars G; Alashi, Alaa; Schoenhagen, Paul; Roselli, Eric E; Johnston, Douglas R; Rodriguez, L Leonardo; Griffin, Brian P; Desai, Milind Y

2017-06-01

In patients with bicuspid aortic valve and dilated proximal ascending aorta, we sought to assess (1) factors associated with increased longer-term cardiovascular mortality and (2) incremental prognostic use of indexing aortic root to patient height. We studied 969 consecutive bicuspid aortic valve patients (50±13 years; 87% men) with proximal aorta ≥4 cm, who also had a gated contrast-enhanced thoracic computed tomography or magnetic resonance angiography. A ratio of ascending aortic area/height was calculated on tomography, and ≥10 cm 2 /m was considered abnormal, as previously reported. Society of Thoracic Surgeons score and cardiovascular death were recorded. Greater than or equal to III+ aortic regurgitation and severe aortic stenosis were seen in 37% and 10%, respectively. Society of Thoracic Surgeons score and right ventricular systolic pressure were 2±3 and 15±16 mm Hg, respectively. Abnormal ascending aortic area/height ratio was noted in 33%; 44% underwent ascending aortic surgery at 34 days. At 10.8 years (interquartile range, 9.6-12.3), 82 (9%) died (0.4% in-hospital postoperative mortality). On multivariable Cox survival analysis, ascending aortic area/height ratio (hazard ratio, 2; 95% confidence interval, 1.20-3.35) was associated with cardiovascular death, whereas aortic surgery (hazard ratio, 0.46; confidence interval, 0.26-0.80) was associated with improved survival (both P <0.01). Of the 405 patients with ascending aortic diameter of 4.5 to 5.5 cm, 64% had an abnormal ascending aortic area/height ratio, and 70% deaths occurred in patients with an abnormal ratio. In bicuspid aortic valve patients with dilated proximal ascending aorta, ascending aortic area/height ratio was independently associated with cardiovascular death. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Long-Term Survival After Intravenous Thrombolysis for Ischemic Stroke: A Propensity Score-Matched Cohort With up to 10-Year Follow-Up.

PubMed

Muruet, Walter; Rudd, Anthony; Wolfe, Charles D A; Douiri, Abdel

2018-03-01

Intravenous thrombolysis with alteplase is one of the few approved treatments for acute ischemic stroke; nevertheless, little is known about its long-term effects on survival and recovery because clinical trials follow-up times are limited. Patients registered between January 2005 and December 2015, to the population-based South London Stroke Register of first-ever strokes. Propensity score was used to match thrombolyzed and control cases to a 1:2 ratio by demographical and clinical covariates. The primary outcome was survival up to 10 years using Kaplan-Meier estimates, Cox proportional hazards, and restricted mean survival time. Secondary outcomes included stroke recurrence and functional status (Barthel Index and Frenchay Activities Index scores) at 5 years. From 2052 ischemic strokes, 246 treated patients were matched to 492 controls. Median follow-up time 5.45 years (interquartile range, 4.56). Survival was higher in the treatment group (median, 5.72 years) compared with control group (4.98 years, stratified log-rank test <0.001). The number needed to treat to prevent 1 death at 5 years was 12 and 20 at 10 years. After Cox regression analysis, thrombolysis reduced risk of mortality by 37% (hazard ratio, 0.63; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.48-0.82) at 10 years; however, after introducing a multiplicative interaction term into the model, mortality risk reduction was 42% (hazard ratio, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.40-0.82) at 10 years for those arriving within 3 hours to the hospital. On average, in a 10-year period, treated patients lived 1 year longer than controls. At 5 years, thrombolysis was associated with independence (Barthel Index≥90; odds ratio, 3.76; 95% CI, 1.22-13.34) and increased odds of a higher Frenchay Activities Index (proportional odds ratio, 2.37; 95% CI, 1.16-4.91). There was no difference in stroke recurrence. Thrombolysis with intravenous alteplase is associated with improved long-term survival and functional status after ischemic stroke. © 2018

"Canary Islands, a volcanic window in the Atlantic Ocean": a 7 year effort of public awareness on volcano hazards and risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodríguez, Fátima; Calvo, David; Pérez, Nemesio M.; Padrón, Eleazar; Melián, Gladys; Padilla, Germán; Barrancos, José; Hernández, Pedro A.; Asensio-Ramos, María; Alonso, Mar

2016-04-01

"Canary Islands: A volcanic window in the Atlantic Ocean" is an educational program born from the need to inform and educate citizens residing in the Canary Islands on the various hazards associated to volcanic phenomena. The Canary Islands is the only territory of Spain that hosts active volcanism, as is shown by the 16 historical eruptions that have occurred throughout this territory, being the last one a submarine eruption taking place on October 12, 2011, offshore El Hierro Island. In the last 7 years, ITER as well as INVOLCAN have been performing an educative program focused on educating to the population about the benefits of a volcanic territory, volcanic hazards, how to reduce volcanic risk and the management of volcanic risk in the Canary Islands. "Canary Islands: A volcanic window in the Atlantic Ocean" consists of three units, the first two dedicated to the IAVCEI/UNESCO videos "Understanding Volcanic Hazards" and "Reducing Volcanic Risk" and the third one dedicated to the management of volcanic risk in the Canary Islands, as well as some other aspects of the volcanic phenomena. Generally the three units are shown consecutively on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. This educative program has been roaming all around the 88 municipalities of the archipelago since this initiative started in 2008. The total number of attendees since then amounts to 18,911 people. The increase of assistance was constant until 2011, with annual percentages of 7.8, 17.1 and 20.9 respectively, regarding to ratio assistant/municipality. Despite the heterogeneity of the audience, the main audience is related to aged people of 45 years and older. This could be related to the memories of the recent eruptions occurred at La Palma Island in 1949 and 1971. It is important to point out that many of those people attending the educative program are representatives of local government (i.e. civil protection). Regarding the interest of the audience, the educational program attendees have

Up-to-date Probabilistic Earthquake Hazard Maps for Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaber, Hanan; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Badawy, Ahmed

2018-04-01

An up-to-date earthquake hazard analysis has been performed in Egypt using a probabilistic seismic hazard approach. Through the current study, we use a complete and homogenous earthquake catalog covering the time period between 2200 BC and 2015 AD. Three seismotectonic models representing the seismic activity in and around Egypt are used. A logic-tree framework is applied to allow for the epistemic uncertainty in the declustering parameters, minimum magnitude, seismotectonic setting and ground-motion prediction equations. The hazard analysis is performed for a grid of 0.5° × 0.5° in terms of types of rock site for the peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration at 0.2-, 0.5-, 1.0- and 2.0-s periods. The hazard is estimated for three return periods (72, 475 and 2475 years) corresponding to 50, 10 and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The uniform hazard spectra for the cities of Cairo, Alexandria, Aswan and Nuwbia are constructed. The hazard maps show that the highest ground acceleration values are expected in the northeastern part of Egypt around the Gulf of Aqaba (PGA up to 0.4 g for return period 475 years) and in south Egypt around the city of Aswan (PGA up to 0.2 g for return period 475 years). The Western Desert of Egypt is characterized by the lowest level of hazard (PGA lower than 0.1 g for return period 475 years).

Truck Transport of Hazardous Chemicals : Acetone

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-03-01

The transport of hazardous materials by all modes is a major concern of the U.S. Department of Transportation. Estimates place the total amount of hazardous materials transported in the U.S. in excess of 1.5 billion tons per year. Highway, water, and...

Truck Transport of Hazardous Chemicals : Isopropanol

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-12-01

The transport of hazardous materials by all modes is a major concern of the U.S. Department of Transportation. Estimates place the total amount of hazardous materials transported in the U.S. in excess of 1.5 billion tons per year. Highway, water, and...

Confidence intervals for the first crossing point of two hazard functions.

PubMed

Cheng, Ming-Yen; Qiu, Peihua; Tan, Xianming; Tu, Dongsheng

2009-12-01

The phenomenon of crossing hazard rates is common in clinical trials with time to event endpoints. Many methods have been proposed for testing equality of hazard functions against a crossing hazards alternative. However, there has been relatively few approaches available in the literature for point or interval estimation of the crossing time point. The problem of constructing confidence intervals for the first crossing time point of two hazard functions is considered in this paper. After reviewing a recent procedure based on Cox proportional hazard modeling with Box-Cox transformation of the time to event, a nonparametric procedure using the kernel smoothing estimate of the hazard ratio is proposed. The proposed procedure and the one based on Cox proportional hazard modeling with Box-Cox transformation of the time to event are both evaluated by Monte-Carlo simulations and applied to two clinical trial datasets.

Natural Hazards, Second Edition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rouhban, Badaoui

Natural disaster loss is on the rise, and the vulnerability of the human and physical environment to the violent forces of nature is increasing. In many parts of the world, disasters caused by natural hazards such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, drought, wildfires, intense windstorms, tsunami, and volcanic eruptions have caused the loss of human lives, injury, homelessness, and the destruction of economic and social infrastructure. Over the last few years, there has been an increase in the occurrence, severity, and intensity of disasters, culminating with the devastating tsunami of 26 December 2004 in South East Asia.Natural hazards are often unexpected or uncontrollable natural events of varying magnitude. Understanding their mechanisms and assessing their distribution in time and space are necessary for refining risk mitigation measures. This second edition of Natural Hazards, (following a first edition published in 1991 by Cambridge University Press), written by Edward Bryant, associate dean of science at Wollongong University, Australia, grapples with this crucial issue, aspects of hazard prediction, and other issues. The book presents a comprehensive analysis of different categories of hazards of climatic and geological origin.

Aortic Cross-Sectional Area/Height Ratio and Outcomes in Patients With a Trileaflet Aortic Valve and a Dilated Aorta.

PubMed

Masri, Ahmad; Kalahasti, Vidyasagar; Svensson, Lars G; Roselli, Eric E; Johnston, Douglas; Hammer, Donald; Schoenhagen, Paul; Griffin, Brian P; Desai, Milind Y

2016-11-29

In patients with a dilated proximal ascending aorta and trileaflet aortic valve, we aimed to assess (1) factors independently associated with increased long-term mortality and (2) the incremental prognostic utility of indexing aortic root to patient height. We studied consecutive patients with a dilated aortic root (≥4 cm) that underwent echocardiography and gated contrast-enhanced thoracic aortic computed tomography or magnetic resonance angiography between 2003 and 2007. A ratio of aortic root area over height was calculated (cm 2 /m) on tomography, and a cutoff of 10 cm 2 /m was chosen as abnormal, on the basis of previous reports. All-cause death was recorded. The cohort comprised 771 patients (63 years [interquartile range, 53-71], 87% men, 85% hypertension, 51% hyperlipidemia, 56% smokers). Inherited aortopathies, moderate to severe aortic regurgitation, and severe aortic stenosis were seen in 7%, 18%, and 2%, whereas 91% and 54% were on β-blockers and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, respectively. Aortic root area/height ratio was ≥10 cm 2 /m in 24%. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons score and right ventricular systolic pressure were 3.3±3 and 31±7 mm Hg, respectively. At 7.8 years (interquartile range, 6.6-8.9), 280 (36%) patients underwent aortic surgery (76% within 1 year) and 130 (17%) died (1% in-hospital postoperative mortality). A lower proportion of patients in the surgical (versus nonsurgical) group died (13% versus 19%, P<0.01). On multivariable Cox proportional hazard analysis, aortic root area/height ratio (hazard ratio, 4.04; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.69-6.231) was associated with death, whereas aortic surgery (hazard ratio, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.27-0.81) was associated with improved survival (both P<0.01). For longer-term mortality, the addition of aortic root area/height ratio ≥10 cm 2 /m to a clinical model (Society of Thoracic Surgeons score, inherited aortopathies, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, medications, aortic

Three consecutive years of road closures due to natural hazards in the Weisstannen valley, Canton of St-Gallen, Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voumard, Jérémie; Derron, Marc-Henri; Jaboyedoff, Michel

2017-04-01

The Weisstannen small alpine valley located in the Canton of St-Gallen, Switzerland, has been affected by four different natural hazards these three last years. Its unique access road has been cut off height times during this period: by an earth slide in January 2014, by three debris flows in August 2015, by one debris flow in September 2016, by two floods in June and July 2016 and by a rockfall in May 2016. Although the valley is sparsely populated, 240 people have been affected by the height road closures due to these events. In addition to road damages, several buildings, of which a restaurant (with EUR 190'000 damages) and an animal shelter, have been damaged. In Switzerland, some roads of 15 communes have been affected by natural hazards at least three times in five years (2012-2016). Then the Weisstannen valley is not an exception at the communal level. However, it is the only valley whose unique access was cut off three consecutive years. With these repeated events, the population of the valley does not understand how possible it is to end up in such a situation in a country accustomed to natural hazards. In the media and social media, people do not hide their irritation regarding to this situation: "Have the authorities failed to take into account natural dangers despite of the 4.7 million Euro allocated for a flood protection project? Who is responsible of those repeated damages? Why the situation did not improve after the events of the first year and then the second year? ". In the present work, we try to shed the light on this peculiar case analysing the causes of road closures, studying meteorological, topographical, hydrological and geological data for each events. The effectiveness of the new protective measures built between the events are assessed, as the future planned protectives measures. Road closures consequences on the population and the economy are also estimated. Finally, we estimate the probability of having new road closures in the

Quantifying the relative risk of sex offenders: risk ratios for static-99R.

PubMed

Hanson, R Karl; Babchishin, Kelly M; Helmus, Leslie; Thornton, David

2013-10-01

Given the widespread use of empirical actuarial risk tools in corrections and forensic mental health, it is important that evaluators and decision makers understand how scores relate to recidivism risk. In the current study, we found strong evidence for a relative risk interpretation of Static-99R scores using 8 samples from Canada, United Kingdom, and Western Europe (N = 4,037 sex offenders). Each increase in Static-99R score was associated with a stable and consistent increase in relative risk (as measured by an odds ratio or hazard ratio of approximately 1.4). Hazard ratios from Cox regression were used to calculate risk ratios that can be reported for Static-99R. We recommend that evaluators consider risk ratios as a useful, nonarbitrary metric for quantifying and communicating risk information. To avoid misinterpretation, however, risk ratios should be presented with recidivism base rates.

Southern Dietary Pattern is Associated With Hazard of Acute Coronary Heart Disease in the Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) Study.

PubMed

Shikany, James M; Safford, Monika M; Newby, P K; Durant, Raegan W; Brown, Todd M; Judd, Suzanne E

2015-09-01

The association of overall diet, as characterized by dietary patterns, with risk of incident acute coronary heart disease (CHD) has not been studied extensively in samples including sociodemographic and regional diversity. We used data from 17 418 participants in Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS), a national, population-based, longitudinal study of white and black adults aged ≥45 years, enrolled from 2003 to 2007. We derived dietary patterns with factor analysis and used Cox proportional hazards regression to examine hazard of incident acute CHD events - nonfatal myocardial infarction and acute CHD death - associated with quartiles of consumption of each pattern, adjusted for various levels of covariates. Five primary dietary patterns emerged: Convenience, Plant-based, Sweets, Southern, and Alcohol and Salad. A total of 536 acute CHD events occurred over a median (interquartile range) 5.8 (2.1) years of follow-up. After adjustment for sociodemographics, lifestyle factors, and energy intake, highest consumers of the Southern pattern (characterized by added fats, fried food, eggs, organ and processed meats, and sugar-sweetened beverages) experienced a 56% higher hazard of acute CHD (comparing quartile 4 with quartile 1: hazard ratio, 1.56; 95% confidence interval, 1.17-2.08; P for trend across quartiles=0.003). Adding anthropometric and medical history variables to the model attenuated the association somewhat (hazard ratio, 1.37; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.85; P=0.036). A dietary pattern characteristic of the southern United States was associated with greater hazard of CHD in this sample of white and black adults in diverse regions of the United States. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

A Windows application for computing standardized mortality ratios and standardized incidence ratios in cohort studies based on calculation of exact person-years at risk.

PubMed

Geiss, Karla; Meyer, Martin

2013-09-01

Standardized mortality ratios and standardized incidence ratios are widely used in cohort studies to compare mortality or incidence in a study population to that in the general population on a age-time-specific basis, but their computation is not included in standard statistical software packages. Here we present a user-friendly Microsoft Windows program for computing standardized mortality ratios and standardized incidence ratios based on calculation of exact person-years at risk stratified by sex, age and calendar time. The program offers flexible import of different file formats for input data and easy handling of general population reference rate tables, such as mortality or incidence tables exported from cancer registry databases. The application of the program is illustrated with two examples using empirical data from the Bavarian Cancer Registry. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reducing fire hazard: balancing costs and outcomes.

Treesearch

Valerie Rapp

2004-01-01

Massive wildfires in recent years have given urgency to questions of how to reduce fire hazard in Western forests, how to finance the work, and how to use the wood, especially in forests crowded with small trees. Scientists have already developed tools that estimate fire hazard in a forest stand. But hazard is more difficult to estimate at a landscape scale, involving...

The costs of hazardous alcohol consumption in Germany.

PubMed

Effertz, Tobias; Verheyen, Frank; Linder, Roland

2017-07-01

Hazardous alcohol consumption in Germany is a main threat to health. By using insurance claim data from the German Statutory Health Insurance and a classification strategy based on ICD10 diagnoses-codes we analyzed a sample of 146,000 subjects with more than 19,000 hazardous alcohol consumers. Employing different regression models with a control function approach, we calculate life years lost due to alcohol consumption, annual direct and indirect health costs, and the burden of pain and suffering measured by the Charlson-Index and assessed pain diagnoses. Additionally, we simulate the net accumulated premium payments over expenses in the German Statutory Health Insurance and the Statutory Pension Fund for hazardous alcohol consumers from a lifecycle perspective. In total, €39.3 billion each year result from hazardous alcohol consumption with an average loss of 7 years in life expectancy. Hazardous alcohol consumers clearly do not "pay their way" in the two main German social security systems and also display a higher intangible burden according to our definitions of pain and suffering.

Doubly Robust Additive Hazards Models to Estimate Effects of a Continuous Exposure on Survival.

PubMed

Wang, Yan; Lee, Mihye; Liu, Pengfei; Shi, Liuhua; Yu, Zhi; Abu Awad, Yara; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel D

2017-11-01

The effect of an exposure on survival can be biased when the regression model is misspecified. Hazard difference is easier to use in risk assessment than hazard ratio and has a clearer interpretation in the assessment of effect modifications. We proposed two doubly robust additive hazards models to estimate the causal hazard difference of a continuous exposure on survival. The first model is an inverse probability-weighted additive hazards regression. The second model is an extension of the doubly robust estimator for binary exposures by categorizing the continuous exposure. We compared these with the marginal structural model and outcome regression with correct and incorrect model specifications using simulations. We applied doubly robust additive hazard models to the estimation of hazard difference of long-term exposure to PM2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 microns) on survival using a large cohort of 13 million older adults residing in seven states of the Southeastern United States. We showed that the proposed approaches are doubly robust. We found that each 1 μg m increase in annual PM2.5 exposure was associated with a causal hazard difference in mortality of 8.0 × 10 (95% confidence interval 7.4 × 10, 8.7 × 10), which was modified by age, medical history, socioeconomic status, and urbanicity. The overall hazard difference translates to approximately 5.5 (5.1, 6.0) thousand deaths per year in the study population. The proposed approaches improve the robustness of the additive hazards model and produce a novel additive causal estimate of PM2.5 on survival and several additive effect modifications, including social inequality.

Understanding earthquake hazards in urban areas - Evansville Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boyd, Oliver S.

2012-01-01

The region surrounding Evansville, Indiana, has experienced minor damage from earthquakes several times in the past 200 years. Because of this history and the proximity of Evansville to the Wabash Valley and New Madrid seismic zones, there is concern among nearby communities about hazards from earthquakes. Earthquakes currently cannot be predicted, but scientists can estimate how strongly the ground is likely to shake as a result of an earthquake and are able to design structures to withstand this estimated ground shaking. Earthquake-hazard maps provide one way of conveying such information and can help the region of Evansville prepare for future earthquakes and reduce earthquake-caused loss of life and financial and structural loss. The Evansville Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project (EAEHMP) has produced three types of hazard maps for the Evansville area: (1) probabilistic seismic-hazard maps show the ground motion that is expected to be exceeded with a given probability within a given period of time; (2) scenario ground-shaking maps show the expected shaking from two specific scenario earthquakes; (3) liquefaction-potential maps show how likely the strong ground shaking from the scenario earthquakes is to produce liquefaction. These maps complement the U.S. Geological Survey's National Seismic Hazard Maps but are more detailed regionally and take into account surficial geology, soil thickness, and soil stiffness; these elements greatly affect ground shaking.

Flows of Selected Hazardous Materials by Rail

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1990-03-01

This report reviews the hazardous materials rail traffic of 33 selected hazardous materials commoditites or commodity groups in 1986, a relatively typical recent year. The flow of the selected commodities by rail are characterized and their geographi...

What 50 Years of Research Tell Us About Pausing Under Ratio Schedules of Reinforcement

PubMed Central

Schlinger, Henry D; Derenne, Adam; Baron, Alan

2008-01-01

Textbooks in learning and behavior commonly describe performance on fixed-ratio schedules as “break and run,” indicating that after reinforcement subjects typically pause and then respond quickly to the next reinforcement. Performance on variable-ratio schedules, on the other hand, is described as steady and fast, with few long pauses. Beginning with Ferster and Skinner's magnum opus, Schedules of Reinforcement (1957), the literature on pausing under ratio schedules has identified the influences on pausing of numerous important variables, in particular ratio size and reinforcement magnitude. As a result, some previously held assumptions have been called into question. For example, research has shown that the length of the pause is controlled not only by the preceding ratio, as Ferster and Skinner and others had assumed (and as implied by the phrase postreinforcement pause), but by the upcoming ratio as well. Similarly, despite the commonly held belief that ratio pausing is unique to the fixed-ratio schedule, there is evidence that pausing also occurs under variable-ratio schedules. If such widely held beliefs are incorrect, then what about other assumptions? This article selectively examines the literature on pausing under ratio schedules over the past 50 years and concludes that although there may indeed be some common patterns, there are also inconsistencies that await future resolution. Several accounts of pausing under ratio schedules are discussed along with the implications of the literature for human performances, most notably the behaviors termed procrastination. PMID:22478501

Cause-specific mortality according to urine albumin creatinine ratio in the general population.

PubMed

Skaaby, Tea; Husemoen, Lise Lotte Nystrup; Ahluwalia, Tarunveer Singh; Rossing, Peter; Jørgensen, Torben; Thuesen, Betina Heinsbæk; Pisinger, Charlotta; Rasmussen, Knud; Linneberg, Allan

2014-01-01

Urine albumin creatinine ratio, UACR, is positively associated with all-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease and diabetes in observational studies. Whether a high UACR is also associated with other causes of death is unclear. We investigated the association between UACR and cause-specific mortality. We included a total of 9,125 individuals from two population-based studies, Monica10 and Inter99, conducted in 1993-94 and 1999-2001, respectively. Urine albumin creatinine ratio was measured from spot urine samples by standard methods. Information on causes of death was obtained from The Danish Register of Causes of Death until 31 December 2010. There were a total of 920 deaths, and the median follow-up was 11.3 years. Multivariable Cox regression analyses with age as underlying time axis showed statistically significant positive associations between UACR status and risk of all-cause mortality, endocrine nutritional and metabolic diseases, mental and behavioural disorders, diseases of the circulatory system, and diseases of the respiratory system with hazard ratios 1.56, 6.98, 2.34, 2.03, and 1.91, for the fourth UACR compared with the first, respectively. Using UACR as a continuous variable, we also found a statistically significant positive association with risk of death caused by diseases of the digestive system with a hazard ratio of 1.02 per 10 mg/g higher UACR. We found statistically significant positive associations between baseline UACR and death from all-cause mortality, endocrine nutritional and metabolic diseases, and diseases of the circulatory system and possibly mental and behavioural disorders, and diseases of the respiratory and digestive system.

Health behaviours as a predictor of quitting hazardous alcohol use in the Stockholm Public Health Cohort.

PubMed

Säfsten, Eleonor; Forsell, Yvonne; Ramstedt, Mats; Galanti, Maria R

2018-06-01

Adopting healthy behaviours may facilitate the transition from hazardous to non-hazardous use of alcohol, yet, longitudinal studies of health behaviours in relation to the cessation of hazardous alcohol use are rare. We addressed this question using data from a large population-based cohort of adults in Sweden (Stockholm Public Health Cohort). Participants from two sub-cohorts (inception in 2002 and 2010), with follow-up until the year 2014 were included. Health behaviours (tobacco use, diet and physical activity) and alcohol use were self-reported in questionnaire-based surveys. Hazardous alcohol use was defined as either usual weekly consumption (2002 sub-cohort) or heavy occasional alcohol consumption (2010 sub-cohort). Baseline hazardous drinkers with complete data constituted the analytical sample (n = 8946). Logistic regression was used to calculate the Odds Ratios and their 95% confidence intervals of quitting hazardous alcohol use, with tobacco use, diet and physical activity as predictors of change. In the 2002 sub-cohort, 28% reported non-hazardous use sustained through two consecutive follow-up points. In the 2010 sub-cohort, 36% of the participants reported non-hazardous use of alcohol at follow-up. Favourable health behaviours at baseline (e.g. no tobacco use, sufficient fruit intake and physical activity) were associated with a 19% to 75% higher of odds quitting hazardous alcohol use. Further, favourable changes in diet and tobacco cessation were associated with non-hazardous alcohol use at follow-up. As many as one-third of hazardous alcohol users may quit this drinking pattern in a medium-long term. Holding or achieving a healthy lifestyle may facilitate this transition.

Obesity and 10-year mortality in very old African Americans and Yoruba-Nigerians: exploring the obesity paradox.

PubMed

Clark, Daniel O; Gao, Sujuan; Lane, Kathleen A; Callahan, Christopher M; Baiyewu, Olusegun; Ogunniyi, Adesola; Hendrie, Hugh C

2014-09-01

To compare the effect of obesity and related risk factors on 10-year mortality in two cohorts of older adults of African descent; one from the United States and one from Nigeria. Study participants were community residents aged 70 or older of African descent living in Indianapolis, Indiana (N = 1,269) or Ibadan, Nigeria (1,197). We compared survival curves between the two cohorts by obesity class and estimated the effect of obesity class on mortality in Cox proportional hazards models controlling for age, gender, alcohol use, and smoking history, and the cardiometabolic biomarkers blood pressure, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein, low-density lipoprotein, and C-reactive protein. We found that underweight was associated with an increased risk of death in both the Yoruba (hazards ratio = 1.35, 95% confidence interval: 1.12-1.63) and African American samples (hazards ratio = 2.49, 95% confidence interval: 1.40-4.43) compared with those with normal weight. The overweight and obese participants in both cohorts experienced survival similar to the normal weight participants. Controlling for cardiometabolic biomarkers had little effect on the obesity-specific hazard ratios in either cohort. Despite significant differences across these two cohorts in terms of obesity and biomarker levels, overall 10-year survival and obesity class-specific survival were remarkably similar. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Daytime Napping and the Risk of All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality: A 13-Year Follow-up of a British Population

PubMed Central

Leng, Yue; Wainwright, Nick W. J.; Cappuccio, Francesco P.; Surtees, Paul G.; Hayat, Shabina; Luben, Robert; Brayne, Carol; Khaw, Kay-Tee

2014-01-01

Epidemiologic studies have reported conflicting results on the relationship between daytime napping and mortality risk, and there are few data on the potential association in the British population. We investigated the associations between daytime napping and all-cause or cause-specific mortality in the European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer-Norfolk study, a British population-based cohort study. Among the 16,374 men and women who answered questions on napping habits between 1998 and 2000, a total of 3,251 died during the 13-year follow-up. Daytime napping was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality (for napping less than 1 hour per day on average, hazard ratio = 1.14, 95% confidence interval: 1.02, 1.27; for napping 1 hour or longer per day on average, hazard ratio = 1.32, 95% confidence interval: 1.04, 1.68), independent of age, sex, social class, educational level, marital status, employment status, body mass index, physical activity level, smoking status, alcohol intake, depression, self-reported general health, use of hypnotic drugs or other medications, time spent in bed at night, and presence of preexisting health conditions. This association was more pronounced for death from respiratory diseases (for napping less than 1 hour, hazard ratio = 1.40, 95% confidence interval: 0.95, 2.05; for napping 1 hour or more, hazard ratio = 2.56, 95% confidence interval: 1.34, 4.86) and in individuals 65 years of age or younger. Excessive daytime napping might be a useful marker of underlying health risk, particularly of respiratory problems, especially among those 65 years of age or younger. Further research is required to clarify the nature of the observed association. PMID:24685532

Daytime napping and the risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality: a 13-year follow-up of a British population.

PubMed

Leng, Yue; Wainwright, Nick W J; Cappuccio, Francesco P; Surtees, Paul G; Hayat, Shabina; Luben, Robert; Brayne, Carol; Khaw, Kay-Tee

2014-05-01

Epidemiologic studies have reported conflicting results on the relationship between daytime napping and mortality risk, and there are few data on the potential association in the British population. We investigated the associations between daytime napping and all-cause or cause-specific mortality in the European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer-Norfolk study, a British population-based cohort study. Among the 16,374 men and women who answered questions on napping habits between 1998 and 2000, a total of 3,251 died during the 13-year follow-up. Daytime napping was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality (for napping less than 1 hour per day on average, hazard ratio = 1.14, 95% confidence interval: 1.02, 1.27; for napping 1 hour or longer per day on average, hazard ratio = 1.32, 95% confidence interval: 1.04, 1.68), independent of age, sex, social class, educational level, marital status, employment status, body mass index, physical activity level, smoking status, alcohol intake, depression, self-reported general health, use of hypnotic drugs or other medications, time spent in bed at night, and presence of preexisting health conditions. This association was more pronounced for death from respiratory diseases (for napping less than 1 hour, hazard ratio = 1.40, 95% confidence interval: 0.95, 2.05; for napping 1 hour or more, hazard ratio = 2.56, 95% confidence interval: 1.34, 4.86) and in individuals 65 years of age or younger. Excessive daytime napping might be a useful marker of underlying health risk, particularly of respiratory problems, especially among those 65 years of age or younger. Further research is required to clarify the nature of the observed association.

Resilience to Interacting multi-natural hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuo, Lu; Han, Dawei

2016-04-01

Conventional analyses of hazard assessment tend to focus on individual hazards in isolation. However, many parts of the world are usually affected by multiple natural hazards with the potential for interacting relationships. The understanding of such interactions, their impacts and the related uncertainties, are an important and topical area of research. Interacting multi-hazards may appear in different forms, including 1) CASCADING HAZARDS (a primary hazard triggering one or more secondary hazards such as an earthquake triggering landslides which may block river channels with dammed lakes and ensued floods), 2) CONCURRING HAZARDS (two or more primary hazards coinciding to trigger or exacerbate secondary hazards such as an earthquake and a rainfall event simultaneously creating landslides), and 3) ALTERING HAZARDS (a primary hazard increasing the probability of a secondary hazard occurring such as major earthquakes disturbing soil/rock materials by violent ground shaking which alter the regional patterns of landslides and debris flows in the subsequent years to come). All three types of interacting multi-hazards may occur in natural hazard prone regions, so it is important that research on hazard resilience should cover all of them. In the past decades, great progresses have been made in tackling disaster risk around the world. However, there are still many challenging issues to be solved, and the disasters over recent years have clearly demonstrated the inadequate resilience in our highly interconnected and interdependent systems. We have identified the following weaknesses and knowledge gaps in the current disaster risk management: 1) although our understanding in individual hazards has been greatly improved, there is a lack of sound knowledge about mechanisms and processes of interacting multi-hazards. Therefore, the resultant multi-hazard risk is often significantly underestimated with severe consequences. It is also poorly understood about the spatial and

Prenatal famine exposure and adult mortality from cancer, cardiovascular disease, and other causes through age 63 years.

PubMed

Ekamper, Peter; van Poppel, Frans; Stein, Aryeh D; Bijwaard, Govert E; Lumey, L H

2015-02-15

Nutritional conditions in early life may affect adult health, but prior studies of mortality have been limited to small samples. We evaluated the relationship between pre-/perinatal famine exposure during the Dutch Hunger Winter of 1944-1945 and mortality through age 63 years among 41,096 men born in 1944-1947 and examined at age 18 years for universal military service in the Netherlands. Of these men, 22,952 had been born around the time of the Dutch famine in 6 affected cities; the remainder served as unexposed controls. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios for death from cancer, heart disease, other natural causes, and external causes. After 1,853,023 person-years of follow-up, we recorded 1,938 deaths from cancer, 1,040 from heart disease, 1,418 from other natural causes, and 523 from external causes. We found no increase in mortality from cancer or cardiovascular disease after prenatal famine exposure. However, there were increases in mortality from other natural causes (hazard ratio = 1.24, 95% confidence interval: 1.03, 1.49) and external causes (hazard ratio = 1.46, 95% confidence interval: 1.09, 1.97) after famine exposure in the first trimester of gestation. Further follow-up of the cohort is needed to provide more accurate risk estimates of mortality from specific causes of death after nutritional disturbances during gestation and very early life. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Landslide hazard assessment: recent trends and techniques.

PubMed

Pardeshi, Sudhakar D; Autade, Sumant E; Pardeshi, Suchitra S

2013-01-01

Landslide hazard assessment is an important step towards landslide hazard and risk management. There are several methods of Landslide Hazard Zonation (LHZ) viz. heuristic, semi quantitative, quantitative, probabilistic and multi-criteria decision making process. However, no one method is accepted universally for effective assessment of landslide hazards. In recent years, several attempts have been made to apply different methods of LHZ and to compare results in order to find the best suited model. This paper presents the review of researches on landslide hazard mapping published in recent years. The advanced multivariate techniques are proved to be effective in spatial prediction of landslides with high degree of accuracy. Physical process based models also perform well in LHZ mapping even in the areas with poor database. Multi-criteria decision making approach also play significant role in determining relative importance of landslide causative factors in slope instability process. Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS) are powerful tools to assess landslide hazards and are being used extensively in landslide researches since last decade. Aerial photographs and high resolution satellite data are useful in detection, mapping and monitoring landslide processes. GIS based LHZ models helps not only to map and monitor landslides but also to predict future slope failures. The advancements in Geo-spatial technologies have opened the doors for detailed and accurate assessment of landslide hazards.

Impact of breast cancer subtypes on 3-year survival among adolescent and young adult women

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Introduction Young women have poorer survival after breast cancer than do older women. It is unclear whether this survival difference relates to the unique distribution of hormone receptor (HR) and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-defined molecular breast cancer subtypes among adolescent and young adult (AYA) women aged 15 to 39 years. The purpose of our study was to examine associations between breast cancer subtypes and short-term survival in AYA women, as well as to determine whether the distinct molecular subtype distribution among AYA women explains the unfavorable overall breast cancer survival statistics reported for AYA women compared with older women. Methods Data for 5,331 AYA breast cancers diagnosed between 2005 and 2009 were obtained from the California Cancer Registry. Survival by subtype (triple-negative; HR+/HER2-; HR+/HER2+; HR-/HER2+) and age-group (AYA versus 40- to 64-year-olds) was analyzed with Cox proportional hazards regression with follow-up through 2010. Results With up to 6 years of follow-up and a mean survival time of 3.1 years (SD = 1.5 years), AYA women diagnosed with HR-/HER + and triple-negative breast cancer experienced a 1.6-fold and 2.7-fold increased risk of death, respectively, from all causes (HR-/HER + hazard ratio: 1.55; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.10 to 2.18; triple-negative HR: 2.75; 95% CI, 2.06 to 3.66) and breast cancer (HR-/HER + hazard ratio: 1.63; 95% CI, 1.12 to 2.36; triple-negative hazard ratio: 2.71; 95% CI, 1.98 to 3.71) than AYA women with HR+/HER2- breast cancer. AYA women who resided in lower socioeconomic status neighborhoods, had public health insurance, and were of Black, compared with White, race/ethnicity experienced worse survival. This race/ethnicity association was attenuated somewhat after adjusting for breast cancer subtypes (hazard ratio, 1.33; 95% CI, 0.98 to 1.82). AYA women had similar all-cause and breast cancer-specific short-term survival as older women

Omega 3:6 ratio intake and incidence of glaucoma: the SUN cohort.

PubMed

Pérez de Arcelus, Mónica; Toledo, Estefanía; Martínez-González, Miguel Á; Sayón-Orea, Carmen; Gea, Alfredo; Moreno-Montañés, Javier

2014-12-01

Omega 3 and omega 6 polyunsaturated fatty acids have been related to many diseases, especially to cardiovascular diseases. We aimed to assess the association between the intake of omega 3, omega 6 fatty acids and their ratio and the incidence of glaucoma in this prospective cohort study. We followed-up 17,128 participants initially free of glaucoma for a median time of 8.2 years. Validated data of diet were collected at baseline with a 136-item semi-quantitative food-frequency questionnaire and information of new diagnosis of glaucoma in biennial follow-up questionnaires. Multivariable Cox regression models were fit to assess the relationship between omega 3, omega 6 and their ratio and the incidence of glaucoma in the total sample and in participants aged ≥40 years at baseline. During a median follow-up time of 8.2 years, 156 new cases of glaucoma were identified. No significant association was observed for the omega 3 or the omega 6 intake and the risk of glaucoma. Participants in the highest quintile of omega 3:6 ratio intake had a significantly higher risk of glaucoma than participants in the lowest quintile (hazard ratio (HR): 1.91 [95%CI: 1.05-3.46], p for trend 0.03). The association became stronger (HR for the comparison of the 5th versus the 1st quintile: 2.43 [95%CI: 1.17-5.03], p for trend 0.02) when we considered only those participants who were ≥40 years old. Our data suggest an association between omega 3:6 ratio intake and incident glaucoma in our cohort, especially among older participants. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

The ten-year incidence of tinnitus among older adults.

PubMed

Nondahl, David M; Cruickshanks, Karen J; Wiley, Terry L; Klein, Barbara E K; Klein, Ron; Chappell, Rick; Tweed, Ted S

2010-08-01

As part of a population-based study in Beaver Dam, Wisconsin, we estimated the 10-year cumulative incidence of tinnitus and its risk factors. Participants (n = 2922, aged 48-92 years) not reporting tinnitus at baseline (1993-1995) were followed for up to ten years. In addition to audiometric testing and anthropometric measures, data on tinnitus, health, and other history were obtained via questionnaire. Potential risk factors were assessed with discrete-time proportional hazards models. The 10-year cumulative incidence of tinnitus was 12.7%. The risk of developing tinnitus was significantly associated with: history of arthritis (hazard ratio (HR = 1.37), history of head injury (HR = 1.76), history of ever smoking (HR = 1.40), and among women, hearing loss (HR = 2.59). Alcohol consumption (HR = 0.63 for > or = 141 grams/week vs. <15 grams/week), age (among women, HR = 0.90 for each five-year increase in age), and among men, obesity (HR = 0.55), were associated with decreased risk. The risk of developing tinnitus was high for older adults, and associated with modifiable health and behavioral factors.

Daily home gardening improved survival for older people with mobility limitations: an 11-year follow-up study in Taiwan.

PubMed

Lêng, Chhian Hūi; Wang, Jung-Der

2016-01-01

To test the hypothesis that gardening is beneficial for survival after taking time-dependent comorbidities, mobility, and depression into account in a longitudinal middle-aged (50-64 years) and older (≥65 years) cohort in Taiwan. The cohort contained 5,058 nationally sampled adults ≥50 years old from the Taiwan Longitudinal Study on Aging (1996-2007). Gardening was defined as growing flowers, gardening, or cultivating potted plants for pleasure with five different frequencies. We calculated hazard ratios for the mortality risks of gardening and adjusted the analysis for socioeconomic status, health behaviors and conditions, depression, mobility limitations, and comorbidities. Survival models also examined time-dependent effects and risks in each stratum contingent upon baseline mobility and depression. Sensitivity analyses used imputation methods for missing values. Daily home gardening was associated with a high survival rate (hazard ratio: 0.82; 95% confidence interval: 0.71-0.94). The benefits were robust for those with mobility limitations, but without depression at baseline (hazard ratio: 0.64, 95% confidence interval: 0.48-0.87) when adjusted for time-dependent comorbidities, mobility limitations, and depression. Chronic or relapsed depression weakened the protection of gardening. For those without mobility limitations and not depressed at baseline, gardening had no effect. Sensitivity analyses using different imputation methods yielded similar results and corroborated the hypothesis. Daily gardening for pleasure was associated with reduced mortality for Taiwanese >50 years old with mobility limitations but without depression.

Occupational Psychosocial Hazards Among the Emerging US Green Collar Workforce.

PubMed

Fernandez, Cristina A; Moore, Kevin; McClure, Laura A; Caban-Martinez, Alberto J; LeBlanc, William G; Fleming, Lora E; Cifuentes, Manuel; Lee, David J

2017-01-01

To compare occupational psychosocial hazards in green collar versus non-green collar workers. Standard Occupational Classification codes were used to link the 2010 National Health Interview Survey to the 2010 Occupational Information Network Database. Multivariable logistic regressions were used to predict job insecurity, work life imbalance, and workplace harassment in green versus non-green collar workers. Most participants were white, non-Hispanic, 25 to 64 years of age, and obtained greater than a high school education. The majority of workers reported no job insecurity, work life imbalance, or workplace harassment. Relative to non-green collar workers (n = 12,217), green collar workers (n = 2,588) were more likely to report job insecurity (Odds ratio [OR] = 1.13; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.02 to 1.26) and work life imbalance (1.19; 1.05 to 1.35), but less likely to experience workplace harassment (0.77; 0.62 to 0.95). Continuous surveillance of occupational psychosocial hazards is recommended in this rapidly emerging workforce.

Gender differences in hazardous drinking among middle-aged in Europe: the role of social context and women's empowerment.

PubMed

Bosque-Prous, Marina; Espelt, Albert; Borrell, Carme; Bartroli, Montse; Guitart, Anna M; Villalbí, Joan R; Brugal, M Teresa

2015-08-01

The aim of this study was to estimate the magnitude of gender differences in hazardous drinking among middle-aged people and to analyse whether these differences are associated with contextual factors, such as public policies or socioeconomic factors. Cross-sectional design. The study population included 50- to 64-year-old residents of 16 European countries who participated in the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe project conducted in 2010-12 (n = 26 017). We estimated gender differences in hazardous drinking in each country. To determine whether different social context or women's empowerment variables were associated with gender differences in hazardous drinking, we fitted multilevel Poisson regression models adjusted for various individual and country-level variables, which yielded prevalence ratios and their 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Prevalence of hazardous drinking was significantly higher in men than women [30.2% (95% CI: 29.1-31.4%) and 18.6% (95% CI: 17.7-19.4%), respectively] in most countries, although the extent of these differences varied between countries. Among individuals aged 50-64 years in Europe, risk of becoming a hazardous drinker was 1.69 times higher (95% CI: 1.45-1.97) in men, after controlling for individual and country-level variables. We also found that lower values of the gender empowerment measure and higher unemployment rates were associated with higher gender differences in hazardous drinking. Countries with the greatest gender differences in hazardous drinking were those with the most restrictions on women's behaviour, and the greatest gender inequalities in daily life. Lower gender differences in hazardous drinking seem to be related to higher consumption among women. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

[Relations of landslide and debris flow hazards to environmental factors].

PubMed

Zhang, Guo-ping; Xu, Jing; Bi, Bao-gui

2009-03-01

To clarify the relations of landslide and debris flow hazards to environmental factors is of significance to the prediction and evaluation of landslide and debris flow hazards. Base on the latitudinal and longitudinal information of 18431 landslide and debris flow hazards in China, and the 1 km x 1 km grid data of elevation, elevation difference, slope, slope aspect, vegetation type, and vegetation coverage, this paper analyzed the relations of landslide and debris flow hazards in this country to above-mentioned environmental factors by the analysis method of frequency ratio. The results showed that the landslide and debris flow hazards in China more occurred in lower elevation areas of the first and second transitional zones. When the elevation difference within a 1 km x 1 km grid cell was about 300 m and the slope was around 30 degree, there was the greatest possibility of the occurrence of landslide and debris hazards. Mountain forest land and slope cropland were the two land types the hazards most easily occurred. The occurrence frequency of the hazards was the highest when the vegetation coverage was about 80%-90%.

Biennial Hazardous Waste Report

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Federal regulations require large quantity generators to submit a report (EPA form 8700-13A/B) every two years regarding the nature, quantities and disposition of hazardous waste generated at their facility.

The impact of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio among patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma.

PubMed

Buettner, Stefan; Spolverato, Gaya; Kimbrough, Charles W; Alexandrescu, Sorin; Marques, Hugo P; Lamelas, Jorge; Aldrighetti, Luca; Gamblin, T Clark; Maithel, Shishir K; Pulitano, Carlo; Weiss, Matthew; Bauer, Todd W; Shen, Feng; Poultsides, George A; Marsh, J Wallis; IJzermans, Jan N M; Koerkamp, Bas Groot; Pawlik, Timothy M

2018-06-11

Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and platelets-to-lymphocyte ratio may be host factors associated with prognosis. We sought to determine whether neutrophil-to-lymphocyte and platelets-to-lymphocyte ratio were associated with overall survival among patients undergoing surgery for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma. Patients who underwent resection for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma between 1990 and 2015 were identified from 12 major centers. Clinicopathologic factors and overall survival were compared among patients stratified by neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and platelets-to-lymphocyte ratio. Risk factors identified on multivariable analysis were included in a prognostic model and the discrimination was assessed using Harrell's concordance index (C index). A total of 991 patients were identified. Median neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and platelets-to-lymphocyte ratio were 2.7 (interquartile range [IQR]: 2.0-4.0) and 109.6 (IQR: 72.4-158.8), respectively. Preoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio was elevated (≥5) in 100 patients (10.0%) and preoperative platelets-to-lymphocyte ratio (≥190) in 94 patients (15.2%). Patients with low and high neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and platelets-to-lymphocyte ratio generally had similar baseline characteristics with regard to tumor characteristics. Overall survival was 37.7 months (95% confidence interval [CI]: 32.7-42.6); 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival was 78.8%, 51.6%, and 39.3%, respectively. Patients with an neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio <5 had a median survival of 47.1 months (95% CI: 37.9-53.3) compared with a median survival of 21.9 months (95% CI: 4.8-39.1) among patients with an neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio ≥5 (P = .001). In contrast, patients who had a platelets-to-lymphocyte ratio <190 vs platelets-to-lymphocyte ratio ≥190 had comparable long-term survival (P > .05). On multivariable analysis, an elevated neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio was independently associated with decreased overall survival

Impact of graft-to-recipient weight ratio on small-for-size syndrome following living donor liver transplantation.

PubMed

Bell, Richard; Pandanaboyana, Sanjay; Upasani, Vivek; Prasad, Raj

2018-05-01

This meta-analysis aimed to compare living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) grafts with a graft-to-recipient weight ratio (GRWR) of <0.8 to grafts with a GRWR ≥0.8 with regards to small-for-size syndrome (SFSS) and short and longer term outcomes. An electronic search was performed of the MEDLINE, EMBASE and PubMed databases until December 2016 using both subject headings (MeSH) and free text. Pooled odds ratios and hazard ratios were calculated using fixed- and random-effects models for meta-analysis. Eight studies including 1833 patients met the inclusion criteria. The rate of SFSS was 10% in the <0.8 group and 5% in the ≥0.8 group (odds ratio: 1.69 (1.09, 2.61) (P = 0.020)). No significant difference was noted between the two groups with regards to graft survival up to 5 years (hazard ratio: 1.31 (0.88, 1.94) (P = 0.190)). Similarly, no significant difference was noted in overall complications (P = 0.06), biliary (P = 0.290) or vascular complications (P = 0.190), perioperative haemorrhage (P = 0.150), post-operative mortality (P = 0.810) and rejection (P = 0.160). The incidence of SFSS in grafts with a GRWR <0.8 is more than in GRWR ≥0.8; however, the low GRWR does not appear to impact perioperative outcomes or graft survival. © 2018 Royal Australasian College of Surgeons.

Intracoronary injection of CD34-cells in chronic ischemic heart failure: 7 years follow-up of the DanCell study.

PubMed

Hansen, Morten; Nyby, Sebastian; Eifer Møller, Jacob; Videbæk, Lars; Kassem, Moustapha; Barington, Torben; Thayssen, Per; Diederichsen, Axel Cosmus Pyndt

2014-01-01

Seven years ago, the DanCell study was carried out to test the hypothesis of improvement in left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) following repeated intracoronary injections of autologous bone marrow-derived stem cells (BMSCs) in patients suffering from chronic ischemic heart failure. In this post hoc analysis, the long-term effect of therapy is assessed. 32 patients [mean age 61 (SD ± 9), 81% males] with systolic dysfunction (LVEF 33 ± 9%) received two repeated intracoronary infusions (4 months apart) of autologous BMSCs (1,533 ± 765 × 10(6) BMSCs including 23 ± 11 × 10(6) CD34(+) cells and 14 ± 7 × 10(6) CD133(+) cells). Patients were followed for 7 years and deaths were recorded. During follow-up, 10 patients died (31%). In univariate regression analysis, the total number of BMSCs, CD34(+) cell count and CD133(+) cell count did not significantly correlate with survival (hazard ratio: 0.999, 95% CI: 0.998-1.000, p = 0.24; hazard ratio: 0.94, 95% CI: 0.88-1.01, p = 0.10, and hazard ratio: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.87-1.07, p = 0.47, respectively). After adjustment for baseline variables in multivariate regression analysis, the CD34(+) cell count was significantly associated with survival (hazard ratio: 0.90, 95% CI: 0.82-1.00, p = 0.04). Intracoronary injections of a high number of CD34(+) cells may have a beneficial effect on chronic ischemic heart failure in terms of long-term survival.

Truck Transport of Hazardous Chemicals : Phosphorus Pentasulfide

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-08-01

The transport of hazardous materials by all modes is a major concern of the U.S. Department of Transportation. Estimates place the total amount of hazardous materials transported in the U.S. in excess of 1.5 billion tons per year. Highway, water, and...

Truck Transport of Hazardous Chemicals: 1-Butanol

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1995-09-01

The transport of hazardous materials by all modes is a major concern of the U.S. Department of Transportation. Estimates place the total amount of hazardous materials transported in the U.S. in excess of 1.5 billion tons per year. Highway, water, and...

Truck Transport of Hazardous Chemicals : Dodecene-1

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-09-01

The transport of hazardous materials by all modes is a major concern of the U.S. Department of Transportation. Estimates place the total amount of hazardous materials transported in the U.S. in excess of 1.5 billion tons per year. Highway, water, and...

Hazard Regression Models of Early Mortality in Trauma Centers

PubMed Central

Clark, David E; Qian, Jing; Winchell, Robert J; Betensky, Rebecca A

2013-01-01

Background Factors affecting early hospital deaths after trauma may be different from factors affecting later hospital deaths, and the distribution of short and long prehospital times may vary among hospitals. Hazard regression (HR) models may therefore be more useful than logistic regression (LR) models for analysis of trauma mortality, especially when treatment effects at different time points are of interest. Study Design We obtained data for trauma center patients from the 2008–9 National Trauma Data Bank (NTDB). Cases were included if they had complete data for prehospital times, hospital times, survival outcome, age, vital signs, and severity scores. Cases were excluded if pulseless on admission, transferred in or out, or ISS<9. Using covariates proposed for the Trauma Quality Improvement Program and an indicator for each hospital, we compared LR models predicting survival at 8 hours after injury to HR models with survival censored at 8 hours. HR models were then modified to allow time-varying hospital effects. Results 85,327 patients in 161 hospitals met inclusion criteria. Crude hazards peaked initially, then steadily declined. When hazard ratios were assumed constant in HR models, they were similar to odds ratios in LR models associating increased mortality with increased age, firearm mechanism, increased severity, more deranged physiology, and estimated hospital-specific effects. However, when hospital effects were allowed to vary by time, HR models demonstrated that hospital outliers were not the same at different times after injury. Conclusions HR models with time-varying hazard ratios reveal inconsistencies in treatment effects, data quality, and/or timing of early death among trauma centers. HR models are generally more flexible than LR models, can be adapted for censored data, and potentially offer a better tool for analysis of factors affecting early death after injury. PMID:23036828

Colorectal Cancer Screening Initiation After Age 50 Years in an Organized Program.

PubMed

Fedewa, Stacey A; Corley, Douglas A; Jensen, Christopher D; Zhao, Wei; Goodman, Michael; Jemal, Ahmedin; Ward, Kevin C; Levin, Theodore R; Doubeni, Chyke A

2017-09-01

Recent studies report racial disparities among individuals in organized colorectal cancer (CRC) programs; however, there is a paucity of information on CRC screening utilization by race/ethnicity among newly age-eligible adults in such programs. This was a retrospective cohort study among Kaiser Permanente Northern California enrollees who turned age 50 years between 2007 and 2012 (N=138,799) and were served by a systemwide outreach and facilitated in-reach screening program based primarily on mailed fecal immunochemical tests to screening-eligible people. Kaplan-Meier and Cox model analyses were used to estimate differences in receipt of CRC screening in 2015-2016. Cumulative probabilities of CRC screening within 1 and 2 years of subjects' 50th birthday were 51% and 73%, respectively. Relative to non-Hispanic whites, the likelihood of completing any CRC screening was similar in blacks (hazard ratio, 0.98; 95% CI=0.96, 1.00); 5% lower in Hispanics (hazard ratio, 0.95; 95% CI=0.93, 0.96); and 13% higher in Asians (hazard ratio, 1.13; 95% CI=1.11, 1.15) in adjusted analyses. Fecal immunochemical testing was the most common screening modality, representing 86% of all screening initiations. Blacks and Hispanics had lower receipt of fecal immunochemical testing in adjusted analyses. CRC screening uptake was high among newly screening-eligible adults in an organized CRC screening program, but Hispanics were less likely to initiate screening near age 50 years than non-Hispanic whites, suggesting that cultural and other individual-level barriers not addressed within the program likely contribute. Future studies examining the influences of culturally appropriate and targeted efforts for screening initiation are needed. Copyright © 2017 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Liver resections in over-75-year-old patients: surgical hazard or current practice?

PubMed

Aldrighetti, Luca; Arru, Marcella; Catena, Marco; Finazzi, Renato; Ferla, Gianfranco

2006-03-01

To assess the safety of hepatic resections in the very old patient by comparing the outcome in patients younger and older than 75 years. Thirty-two resections in 31 patients > or =75 years (Over-75 Group) were compared with 164 resections in 162 patients <75 years (Control Group). Indications for resection, concomitant diseases, previous abdominal surgery, type of resection, associated surgical procedures, use/length of portal clamping, intra-operative blood losses and transfusions, and length of operation were preliminarily compared. The outcome was evaluated in terms of post-operative mortality, morbidity, transfusions, and postoperative hospitalization. Mean age was 76.0 +/- 2.3 years (range 75-83) in the Over-75 Group and 58.4 +/- 10.7 years (range 23-74) in the Control Group. The over-75 group included more hepatomas (43.8% vs. 26.8%, P = 0.09), chronic liver disease (31.3% vs. 28.7%, P = 0.03) and concomitant diseases (62.5% vs. 32.9%, P = 0.002). The two groups were comparable (P = n.s.) when evaluated for all other variables. The 30-day mortality rate was 3.6% in the Control Group and none in the Over-75 Group. Postoperative surgical complications occurred in 37 patients (22.6%) in the Control Group and 1 patient (3.1%) in the Over-75 Group, with statistically significant differences (P = 0.01), and incidence of medical complications was 13.4% in the Control Group and 3.1% in the Over-75 Group. Median postoperative hospitalization and transfusions were not statistically different. Hepatic resections in over-75-year-old patients are not a surgical hazard and may be carried out relatively safely as long as an accurate selection of the patient is performed.

Assessment of the Casualty Risk of Multiple Meteorological Hazards in China

PubMed Central

Xu, Wei; Zhuo, Li; Zheng, Jing; Ge, Yi; Gu, Zhihui; Tian, Yugang

2016-01-01

A study of the frequency, intensity, and risk of extreme climatic events or natural hazards is important for assessing the impacts of climate change. Many models have been developed to assess the risk of multiple hazards, however, most of the existing approaches can only model the relative levels of risk. This paper reports the development of a method for the quantitative assessment of the risk of multiple hazards based on information diffusion. This method was used to assess the risks of loss of human lives from 11 types of meteorological hazards in China at the prefectural and provincial levels. Risk curves of multiple hazards were obtained for each province and the risks of 10-year, 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year return periods were mapped. The results show that the provinces (municipalities, autonomous regions) in southeastern China are at higher risk of multiple meteorological hazards as a result of their geographical location and topography. The results of this study can be used as references for the management of meteorological disasters in China. The model can be used to quantitatively calculate the risks of casualty, direct economic losses, building collapse, and agricultural losses for any hazards at different spatial scales. PMID:26901210

Assessment of the Casualty Risk of Multiple Meteorological Hazards in China.

PubMed

Xu, Wei; Zhuo, Li; Zheng, Jing; Ge, Yi; Gu, Zhihui; Tian, Yugang

2016-02-17

A study of the frequency, intensity, and risk of extreme climatic events or natural hazards is important for assessing the impacts of climate change. Many models have been developed to assess the risk of multiple hazards, however, most of the existing approaches can only model the relative levels of risk. This paper reports the development of a method for the quantitative assessment of the risk of multiple hazards based on information diffusion. This method was used to assess the risks of loss of human lives from 11 types of meteorological hazards in China at the prefectural and provincial levels. Risk curves of multiple hazards were obtained for each province and the risks of 10-year, 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year return periods were mapped. The results show that the provinces (municipalities, autonomous regions) in southeastern China are at higher risk of multiple meteorological hazards as a result of their geographical location and topography. The results of this study can be used as references for the management of meteorological disasters in China. The model can be used to quantitatively calculate the risks of casualty, direct economic losses, building collapse, and agricultural losses for any hazards at different spatial scales.

A~probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horspool, N.; Pranantyo, I.; Griffin, J.; Latief, H.; Natawidjaja, D. H.; Kongko, W.; Cipta, A.; Bustaman, B.; Anugrah, S. D.; Thio, H. K.

2014-05-01

Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence based decision making on risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc, with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time independent forecasts of tsunami hazard at the coast from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte-carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and through sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500-2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting larger maximum magnitudes along the Sunda Arc. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height at the coast of > 0.5 m is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda Islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of >3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1-10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1-1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horspool, N.; Pranantyo, I.; Griffin, J.; Latief, H.; Natawidjaja, D. H.; Kongko, W.; Cipta, A.; Bustaman, B.; Anugrah, S. D.; Thio, H. K.

2014-11-01

Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence-based decision-making regarding risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time-independent forecasts of tsunami hazards at the coast using data from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500-2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting the larger maximum magnitudes. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 0.5 m at the coast is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1-10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1-1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national-scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

Lymph node ratio predicts disease-specific survival in melanoma patients.

PubMed

Xing, Yan; Badgwell, Brian D; Ross, Merrick I; Gershenwald, Jeffrey E; Lee, Jeffrey E; Mansfield, Paul F; Lucci, Anthony; Cormier, Janice N

2009-06-01

The objectives of this analysis were to compare various measures associated with lymph node (LN) dissection and to identify threshold values associated with disease-specific survival (DSS) outcomes in patients with melanoma. Patients with lymph node-positive melanoma who underwent therapeutic LN dissection of the neck, axilla, and inguinal region were identified from the SEER database (1988-2005). We performed Cox multivariate analyses to determine the impact of the total number of LNs removed, number of negative LNs removed, and LN ratio on DSS. Multivariate cut-point analyses were conducted for each anatomic region to identify the threshold values associated with the largest improvement in DSS. The LN ratio was significantly associated with DSS for all LN regions. The LN ratio thresholds resulting in the greatest difference in 5-year DSS were .07, .13, and .18 for neck, axillary, and inguinal regions, respectively, corresponding to 15, 8, and 6 LNs removed per positive lymph node. After adjustment for other clinicopathologic factors, the hazard ratios (HRs) were .53 (95% confidence interval [CI], .40 to .71) in the neck, .52 (95% CI, .42 to .65) in the axillary, and .47 (95% CI, .36 to .61) in the inguinal regions for patients who met the LN ratio threshold. Among the prognostic factors examined, LN ratio was the best indicator of the extent of LN dissection, regardless of anatomic nodal region. These data provide evidence-based guidelines for defining adequate LN dissections in melanoma patients. (c) 2009 American Cancer Society.

Gender differences in hazardous drinking among middle-aged in Europe: the role of social context and women’s empowerment

PubMed Central

Bosque-Prous, Marina; Borrell, Carme; Bartroli, Montse; Guitart, Anna M.; Villalbí, Joan R.; Brugal, M. Teresa

2015-01-01

Background: The aim of this study was to estimate the magnitude of gender differences in hazardous drinking among middle-aged people and to analyse whether these differences are associated with contextual factors, such as public policies or socioeconomic factors. Methods: Cross-sectional design. The study population included 50- to 64-year-old residents of 16 European countries who participated in the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe project conducted in 2010–12 (n = 26 017). We estimated gender differences in hazardous drinking in each country. To determine whether different social context or women’s empowerment variables were associated with gender differences in hazardous drinking, we fitted multilevel Poisson regression models adjusted for various individual and country-level variables, which yielded prevalence ratios and their 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Results: Prevalence of hazardous drinking was significantly higher in men than women [30.2% (95% CI: 29.1–31.4%) and 18.6% (95% CI: 17.7–19.4%), respectively] in most countries, although the extent of these differences varied between countries. Among individuals aged 50–64 years in Europe, risk of becoming a hazardous drinker was 1.69 times higher (95% CI: 1.45–1.97) in men, after controlling for individual and country-level variables. We also found that lower values of the gender empowerment measure and higher unemployment rates were associated with higher gender differences in hazardous drinking. Conclusion: Countries with the greatest gender differences in hazardous drinking were those with the most restrictions on women’s behaviour, and the greatest gender inequalities in daily life. Lower gender differences in hazardous drinking seem to be related to higher consumption among women. PMID:25616593

IARC Monographs: 40 Years of Evaluating Carcinogenic Hazards to Humans

PubMed Central

Blair, Aaron; Vineis, Paolo; Ahrens, Wolfgang; Andersen, Aage; Anto, Josep M.; Armstrong, Bruce K.; Baccarelli, Andrea A.; Beland, Frederick A.; Berrington, Amy; Bertazzi, Pier Alberto; Birnbaum, Linda S.; Brownson, Ross C.; Bucher, John R.; Cantor, Kenneth P.; Cardis, Elisabeth; Cherrie, John W.; Christiani, David C.; Cocco, Pierluigi; Coggon, David; Comba, Pietro; Demers, Paul A.; Dement, John M.; Douwes, Jeroen; Eisen, Ellen A.; Engel, Lawrence S.; Fenske, Richard A.; Fleming, Lora E.; Fletcher, Tony; Fontham, Elizabeth; Forastiere, Francesco; Frentzel-Beyme, Rainer; Fritschi, Lin; Gerin, Michel; Goldberg, Marcel; Grandjean, Philippe; Grimsrud, Tom K.; Gustavsson, Per; Haines, Andy; Hartge, Patricia; Hansen, Johnni; Hauptmann, Michael; Heederik, Dick; Hemminki, Kari; Hemon, Denis; Hertz-Picciotto, Irva; Hoppin, Jane A.; Huff, James; Jarvholm, Bengt; Kang, Daehee; Karagas, Margaret R.; Kjaerheim, Kristina; Kjuus, Helge; Kogevinas, Manolis; Kriebel, David; Kristensen, Petter; Kromhout, Hans; Laden, Francine; Lebailly, Pierre; LeMasters, Grace; Lubin, Jay H.; Lynch, Charles F.; Lynge, Elsebeth; ‘t Mannetje, Andrea; McMichael, Anthony J.; McLaughlin, John R.; Marrett, Loraine; Martuzzi, Marco; Merchant, James A.; Merler, Enzo; Merletti, Franco; Miller, Anthony; Mirer, Franklin E.; Monson, Richard; Nordby, Karl-Cristian; Olshan, Andrew F.; Parent, Marie-Elise; Perera, Frederica P.; Perry, Melissa J.; Pesatori, Angela Cecilia; Pirastu, Roberta; Porta, Miquel; Pukkala, Eero; Rice, Carol; Richardson, David B.; Ritter, Leonard; Ritz, Beate; Ronckers, Cecile M.; Rushton, Lesley; Rusiecki, Jennifer A.; Rusyn, Ivan; Samet, Jonathan M.; Sandler, Dale P.; de Sanjose, Silvia; Schernhammer, Eva; Costantini, Adele Seniori; Seixas, Noah; Shy, Carl; Siemiatycki, Jack; Silverman, Debra T.; Simonato, Lorenzo; Smith, Allan H.; Smith, Martyn T.; Spinelli, John J.; Spitz, Margaret R.; Stallones, Lorann; Stayner, Leslie T.; Steenland, Kyle; Stenzel, Mark; Stewart, Bernard W.; Stewart, Patricia A.; Symanski, Elaine; Terracini, Benedetto; Tolbert, Paige E.; Vainio, Harri; Vena, John; Vermeulen, Roel; Victora, Cesar G.; Ward, Elizabeth M.; Weinberg, Clarice R.; Weisenburger, Dennis; Wesseling, Catharina; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Zahm, Shelia Hoar

2015-01-01

, Cardis E, Cherrie JW, Christiani DC, Cocco P, Coggon D, Comba P, Demers PA, Dement JM, Douwes J, Eisen EA, Engel LS, Fenske RA, Fleming LE, Fletcher T, Fontham E, Forastiere F, Frentzel-Beyme R, Fritschi L, Gerin M, Goldberg M, Grandjean P, Grimsrud TK, Gustavsson P, Haines A, Hartge P, Hansen J, Hauptmann M, Heederik D, Hemminki K, Hemon D, Hertz-Picciotto I, Hoppin JA, Huff J, Jarvholm B, Kang D, Karagas MR, Kjaerheim K, Kjuus H, Kogevinas M, Kriebel D, Kristensen P, Kromhout H, Laden F, Lebailly P, LeMasters G, Lubin JH, Lynch CF, Lynge E, ‘t Mannetje A, McMichael AJ, McLaughlin JR, Marrett L, Martuzzi M, Merchant JA, Merler E, Merletti F, Miller A, Mirer FE, Monson R, Nordby KC, Olshan AF, Parent ME, Perera FP, Perry MJ, Pesatori AC, Pirastu R, Porta M, Pukkala E, Rice C, Richardson DB, Ritter L, Ritz B, Ronckers CM, Rushton L, Rusiecki JA, Rusyn I, Samet JM, Sandler DP, de Sanjose S, Schernhammer E, Seniori Costantini A, Seixas N, Shy C, Siemiatycki J, Silverman DT, Simonato L, Smith AH, Smith MT, Spinelli JJ, Spitz MR, Stallones L, Stayner LT, Steenland K, Stenzel M, Stewart BW, Stewart PA, Symanski E, Terracini B, Tolbert PE, Vainio H, Vena J, Vermeulen R, Victora CG, Ward EM, Weinberg CR, Weisenburger D, Wesseling C, Weiderpass E, Zahm SH. 2015. IARC Monographs: 40 years of evaluating carcinogenic hazards to humans. Environ Health Perspect 123:507–514; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1409149 PMID:25712798

Pyroclastic flow hazard at Volcán Citlaltépetl

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sheridan, Michael F.; Hubbard, Bernard E.; Carrasco-Nunez, Gerardo; Siebe, Claus

2004-01-01

Volcán Citlaltépetl (Pico de Orizaba) with an elevation of 5,675 m is the highest volcano in North America. Its most recent catastrophic events involved the production of pyroclastic flows that erupted approximately 4,000, 8,500, and 13,000 years ago. The distribution of mapped deposits from these eruptions gives an approximate guide to the extent of products from potential future eruptions. Because the topography of this volcano is constantly changing computer simulations were made on the present topography using three computer algorithms: energy cone, FLOW2D, and FLOW3D. The Heim Coefficient (μ), used as a code parameter for frictional sliding in all our algorithms, is the ratio of the assumed drop in elevation (H) divided by the lateral extent of the mapped deposits (L). The viscosity parameter for the FLOW2D and FLOW3D codes was adjusted so that the paths of the flows mimicked those inferred from the mapped deposits. We modeled two categories of pyroclastic flows modeled for the level I and level II events. Level I pyroclastic flows correspond to small but more frequent block-and-ash flows that remain on the main cone. Level II flows correspond to more widespread flows from catastrophic eruptions with an approximate 4,000-year repose period. We developed hazard maps from simulations based on a National Imagery and Mapping Agency (NIMA) DTED-1 DEM with a 90 m grid and a vertical accuracy of ±30 m. Because realistic visualization is an important aid to understanding the risks related to volcanic hazards we present the DEM as modeled by FLOW3D. The model shows that the pyroclastic flows extend for much greater distances to the east of the volcano summit where the topographic relief is nearly 4,300 m. This study was used to plot hazard zones for pyroclastic flows in the official hazard map that was published recently.

St. Louis area earthquake hazards mapping project; seismic and liquefaction hazard maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cramer, Chris H.; Bauer, Robert A.; Chung, Jae-won; Rogers, David; Pierce, Larry; Voigt, Vicki; Mitchell, Brad; Gaunt, David; Williams, Robert; Hoffman, David; Hempen, Gregory L.; Steckel, Phyllis; Boyd, Oliver; Watkins, Connor M.; Tucker, Kathleen; McCallister, Natasha

2016-01-01

We present probabilistic and deterministic seismic and liquefaction hazard maps for the densely populated St. Louis metropolitan area that account for the expected effects of surficial geology on earthquake ground shaking. Hazard calculations were based on a map grid of 0.005°, or about every 500 m, and are thus higher in resolution than any earlier studies. To estimate ground motions at the surface of the model (e.g., site amplification), we used a new detailed near‐surface shear‐wave velocity model in a 1D equivalent‐linear response analysis. When compared with the 2014 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model, which uses a uniform firm‐rock‐site condition, the new probabilistic seismic‐hazard estimates document much more variability. Hazard levels for upland sites (consisting of bedrock and weathered bedrock overlain by loess‐covered till and drift deposits), show up to twice the ground‐motion values for peak ground acceleration (PGA), and similar ground‐motion values for 1.0 s spectral acceleration (SA). Probabilistic ground‐motion levels for lowland alluvial floodplain sites (generally the 20–40‐m‐thick modern Mississippi and Missouri River floodplain deposits overlying bedrock) exhibit up to twice the ground‐motion levels for PGA, and up to three times the ground‐motion levels for 1.0 s SA. Liquefaction probability curves were developed from available standard penetration test data assuming typical lowland and upland water table levels. A simplified liquefaction hazard map was created from the 5%‐in‐50‐year probabilistic ground‐shaking model. The liquefaction hazard ranges from low (60% of area expected to liquefy) in the lowlands. Because many transportation routes, power and gas transmission lines, and population centers exist in or on the highly susceptible lowland alluvium, these areas in the St. Louis region are at significant potential risk from seismically induced liquefaction and associated

Comparing First- and Second-year Palivizumab Prophylaxis in Patients With Hemodynamically Significant Congenital Heart Disease in the CARESS Database (2005-2015).

PubMed

Li, Abby; Wang, Daniel Y; Lanctôt, Krista L; Mitchell, Ian; Paes, Bosco A

2017-05-01

Respiratory syncytial virus hospitalization (RSVH) rates in children <2 years of age with hemodynamically significant congenital heart disease (HSCHD) are 2- to 4-fold higher compared with healthy term infants. Pediatric recommendations differ as to whether palivizumab is beneficial beyond 1 year of age. The objective of this study was to determine whether differences exist in respiratory-related illness hospitalization (RIH) and RSVH in HSCHD infants receiving palivizumab during the first year versus second year of life in the Canadian Registry of Palivizumab. The Canadian Registry of Palivizumab is a prospective database of infants who received ≥1 dose of palivizumab in 32 hospitals from 2005 to 2015. Demographic data were collected at enrollment and RIH events recorded monthly. Infants <24 months of age with HSCHD were recruited. Of 1909 HSCHD infants, 1380 (72.3%) in the first year (mean age, 4.2 months) and 529 (27.7%) in the second year of life (mean age, 17.8 months) received prophylaxis. Baseline demographics for day-care attendance, multiple births, enrollment age and weight differed between the groups (all P < 0.05). Additionally, second year infants had a more complicated neonatal course, with significantly longer length of stay (51.2 vs. 24.9 days) compared with those in the first year. The RIH and RSVH rates in the first year were 11.2% and 2.3% and in the second year were 10.6% and 1.7%. Cox regression analysis showed similar hazard for RIH [hazard ratio, 1.9; 95% confidence interval: 0.7-4.6; P = 0.18] and RSVH [hazard ratio, 2.0; 95% confidence interval: 0.2-16.5; P = 0.52]. Infants in the first and second year of life had a similar RSVH hazard. These findings suggest that infants in the second year with HSCHD, who remain unstable, are equally at risk for RSVH and merit prophylaxis.

Prevalence and correlates of tobacco smoking, awareness of hazards, and quitting behavior among persons aged 30 years or above in a resettlement colony of Delhi, India.

PubMed

Garg, Ankur; Singh, Mongjam Meghachandra; Gupta, Vimal Kishore; Garg, Suneela; Daga, Mradul Kumar; Saha, Renuka

2012-10-01

To assess the prevalence and correlates of current smoking, awareness of hazards, and quitting behavior among smokers 30 years and above. Cross-sectional; Gokulpuri, a resettlement colony in East Delhi, India; 911, persons aged 30 years and above using systematic random sampling; Study tools: Semi-structured questionnaire. Prevalence of current smoking was found to be 24.6% (95% CI 21.90 - 27.49). Majority 198 (88.4%) of current smokers smoked bidi exclusively, and on an average 13.5 bidi/cigarette were smoked per day. Multivariate analysis showed the factors associated with current smoking as male sex, advancing age, illiteracy, skilled occupation, low socio-economic status, and low BMI (P < 0.001). 64.2% were aware of the hazards of smoking. 63 (21.9%) had quit smoking in the past, majority due to the health problems. Low educational status was associated with poor hazard awareness and quitting behavior. Smoking is a significant problem among poor and illiterate males, shows an increasing trend with an advancing age and is directly associated with skilled occupation and low BMI. There are significant gaps in knowledge regarding hazards of smoking.

Natural hazard fatalities in Switzerland from 1946 to 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andres, Norina; Badoux, Alexandre; Techel, Frank

2017-04-01

Switzerland, located in the middle of the Alps, is prone to several different natural hazards which regularly cause fatalities. To explore temporal trends as well as demographic and spatial patterns in the number of natural hazard fatalities, a database comprising all natural hazard events causing fatalities was compiled for the years 1946 until 2015. The new database includes avalanche, flood, lightning, windstorm, landslide, debris flow, rockfall, earthquake and ice avalanche processes. Two existing databases were incorporated and the resulting dataset extended by a comprehensive newspaper search. In total the database contains 635 natural hazard events causing 1023 fatalities. The database does not include victims which exposed themselves to an important danger on purpose (e.g. high risk sports). The most common causes of death were snow avalanches (37 %), followed by lightning (16 %), floods (12 %), windstorms (10 %), rockfall (8 %), landslides (7 %) and other processes (9 %). Around 14.6 fatalities occurred on average each year. A distinct decrease of natural hazard fatalities could be shown over the last 70 years, which was mostly due to the decline in the number of avalanche and lightning fatalities. Thus, nearly three times as many people were killed by natural hazard processes from 1946 to 1980 than from 1981 to 2015. Normalisation of fatality data by population resulted in a clearly declining annual crude mortality rate: 3.9 deaths per million persons for the first 35 years and 1.1 deaths per million persons for the second 35 years of the study period. The average age of the victims was approximately 36 years and about 75% were males. Most people were killed in summer (JJA, 42%) and winter (DJF, 32 %). Furthermore, almost two-thirds of the fatalities took place in the afternoon and evening. The spatial distribution of the natural hazard fatalities over Switzerland was quite homogeneous. However, mountainous parts of the country (Prealps, Alps) were

Dietary sodium to potassium ratio and the incidence of hypertension and cardiovascular disease: A population-based longitudinal study.

PubMed

Mirmiran, Parvin; Bahadoran, Zahra; Nazeri, Pantea; Azizi, Fereidoun

2018-01-30

There is an interaction between dietary sodium/potassium intake in the pathogenesis of hypertension (HTN) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). The aim of this study was to investigate the association of dietary sodium to potassium (Na/K) ratio and the risk of HTN and CVD in a general population of Iranian adults. In this prospective cohort study, adults men and women with complete baseline data were selected from among participants of the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study and were followed up for 6.3 years for incidence of HTN and CVD outcomes. Dietary sodium and potassium were assessed using a valid and reliable 168-item food frequency questionnaire. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between dietary sodium, potassium and their ratio and risk of outcomes. During the study follow-up, 291 (15.1%) and 79 (5.0%) new cases of HTN and CVD were identified, respectively. No significant association was observed between usual intakes of sodium, potassium and dietary Na/K ratio with the incidence of HTN. There was no significant association between dietary intakes of sodium and potassium per se and the risk of CVD, whereas when dietary sodium to potassium ratio was considered as exposure in the fully-adjusted Cox regression model, and participants in the highest compared to lowest tertile had a significantly increased risk of CVD (HR = 2.19, 95% CI = 1.16-4.14). Our findings suggest that high dietary Na/K ratio could contribute to increased risk of CVD events.

Model uncertainties of the 2002 update of California seismic hazard maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cao, T.; Petersen, M.D.; Frankel, A.D.

2005-01-01

In this article we present and explore the source and ground-motion model uncertainty and parametric sensitivity for the 2002 update of the California probabilistic seismic hazard maps. Our approach is to implement a Monte Carlo simulation that allows for independent sampling from fault to fault in each simulation. The source-distance dependent characteristics of the uncertainty maps of seismic hazard are explained by the fundamental uncertainty patterns from four basic test cases, in which the uncertainties from one-fault and two-fault systems are studied in detail. The California coefficient of variation (COV, ratio of the standard deviation to the mean) map for peak ground acceleration (10% of exceedance in 50 years) shows lower values (0.1-0.15) along the San Andreas fault system and other class A faults than along class B faults (0.2-0.3). High COV values (0.4-0.6) are found around the Garlock, Anacapa-Dume, and Palos Verdes faults in southern California and around the Maacama fault and Cascadia subduction zone in northern California.

Hazardous Waste: Learn the Basics of Hazardous Waste

MedlinePlus

... to set up a framework for the proper management of hazardous waste. Need More Information on Hazardous Waste? The RCRA Orientation Manual provides ... facility management standards, specific provisions governing hazardous waste management units ... information on the final steps in EPA’s hazardous waste ...

Landslide Hazard from Coupled Inherent and Dynamic Probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strauch, R. L.; Istanbulluoglu, E.; Nudurupati, S. S.

2015-12-01

Landslide hazard research has typically been conducted independently from hydroclimate research. We sought to unify these two lines of research to provide regional scale landslide hazard information for risk assessments and resource management decision-making. Our approach couples an empirical inherent landslide probability, based on a frequency ratio analysis, with a numerical dynamic probability, generated by combining subsurface water recharge and surface runoff from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macro-scale land surface hydrologic model with a finer resolution probabilistic slope stability model. Landslide hazard mapping is advanced by combining static and dynamic models of stability into a probabilistic measure of geohazard prediction in both space and time. This work will aid resource management decision-making in current and future landscape and climatic conditions. The approach is applied as a case study in North Cascade National Park Complex in northern Washington State.

Daily home gardening improved survival for older people with mobility limitations: an 11-year follow-up study in Taiwan

PubMed Central

Lêng, Chhian Hūi; Wang, Jung-Der

2016-01-01

Aims To test the hypothesis that gardening is beneficial for survival after taking time-dependent comorbidities, mobility, and depression into account in a longitudinal middle-aged (50–64 years) and older (≥65 years) cohort in Taiwan. Methods The cohort contained 5,058 nationally sampled adults ≥50 years old from the Taiwan Longitudinal Study on Aging (1996–2007). Gardening was defined as growing flowers, gardening, or cultivating potted plants for pleasure with five different frequencies. We calculated hazard ratios for the mortality risks of gardening and adjusted the analysis for socioeconomic status, health behaviors and conditions, depression, mobility limitations, and comorbidities. Survival models also examined time-dependent effects and risks in each stratum contingent upon baseline mobility and depression. Sensitivity analyses used imputation methods for missing values. Results Daily home gardening was associated with a high survival rate (hazard ratio: 0.82; 95% confidence interval: 0.71–0.94). The benefits were robust for those with mobility limitations, but without depression at baseline (hazard ratio: 0.64, 95% confidence interval: 0.48–0.87) when adjusted for time-dependent comorbidities, mobility limitations, and depression. Chronic or relapsed depression weakened the protection of gardening. For those without mobility limitations and not depressed at baseline, gardening had no effect. Sensitivity analyses using different imputation methods yielded similar results and corroborated the hypothesis. Conclusion Daily gardening for pleasure was associated with reduced mortality for Taiwanese >50 years old with mobility limitations but without depression. PMID:27486315

Program and plans of the U.S. Geological Survey for producing information needed in National Seismic hazards and risk assessment, fiscal years 1980-84

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hays, Walter W.

1979-01-01

In accordance with the provisions of the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act of 1977 (Public Law 95-124), the U.S. Geological Survey has developed comprehensive plans for producing information needed to assess seismic hazards and risk on a national scale in fiscal years 1980-84. These plans are based on a review of the needs of Federal Government agencies, State and local government agencies, engineers and scientists engaged in consulting and research, professional organizations and societies, model code groups, and others. The Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act provided an unprecedented opportunity for participation in a national program by representatives of State and local governments, business and industry, the design professions, and the research community. The USGS and the NSF (National Science Foundation) have major roles in the national program. The ultimate goal of the program is to reduce losses from earthquakes. Implementation of USGS research in the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program requires the close coordination of responsibility between Federal, State and local governments. The projected research plan in national seismic hazards and risk for fiscal years 1980-84 will be accomplished by USGS and non-USGS scientists and engineers. The latter group will participate through grants and contracts. The research plan calls for (1) national maps based on existing methods, (2) improved definition of earthquake source zones nationwide, (3) development of improved methodology, (4) regional maps based on the improved methodology, and (5) post-earthquake investigations. Maps and reports designed to meet the needs, priorities, concerns, and recommendations of various user groups will be the products of this research and provide the technical basis for improved implementation.

Plasma Arginine/Asymmetric Dimethylarginine Ratio and Incidence of Cardiovascular Events: A Case-Cohort Study.

PubMed

Yu, Edward; Ruiz-Canela, Miguel; Hu, Frank B; Clish, Clary B; Corella, Dolores; Salas-Salvadó, Jordi; Hruby, Adela; Fitó, Montserrat; Liang, Liming; Toledo, Estefanía; Ros, Emilio; Estruch, Ramón; Gómez-Gracia, Enrique; Lapetra, José; Arós, Fernando; Romaguera, Dora; Serra-Majem, Lluís; Guasch-Ferré, Marta; Wang, Dong D; Martínez-González, Miguel A

2017-06-01

Arginine, its methylated metabolites, and other metabolites related to the urea cycle have been independently associated with cardiovascular risk, but the potential causal meaning of these associations (positive for some metabolites and negative for others) remains elusive due to a lack of studies measuring metabolite changes over time. To examine the association between baseline and 1-year concentrations of urea cycle metabolites and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in a case-cohort setting. A case-cohort study was nested within the Prevención con Dieta Mediterránea trial. We used liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry to assess metabolite levels at baseline and after 1-year follow-up. The primary CVD outcome was a composite of myocardial infarction, stroke and cardiovascular death. We used weighted Cox regression models (Barlow weights) to estimate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Multicenter randomized trial in Spain. Participants were 984 participants accruing 231 events over 4.7 years' median follow-up. Incident CVD. Baseline arginine/asymmetric dimethylarginine ratio [HR per standard deviation (SD) = 0.80; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.96] and global arginine availability [arginine / (ornithine + citrulline)] (HR per SD = 0.83; 95% CI, 0.69 to 1.00) were significantly associated with lower risk of CVD. We observed no significant association for 1-year changes in these ratios or any effect modification by the Mediterranean diet (MD) intervention. A higher baseline arginine/asymmetric dimethylarginine ratio was associated with lower CVD incidence in a high cardiovascular risk population. The intervention with the MD did not change 1-year levels of these metabolites. Copyright © 2017 Endocrine Society

[Hazardous materials and work safety in veterinary practice. 1: Hazardous material definition and characterization, practice documentation and general rules for handling].

PubMed

Sliwinski-Korell, A; Lutz, F

1998-04-01

In the last years the standards for professional handling of hazardous material as well as health and safety in the veterinary practice became considerably more stringent. This is expressed in various safety regulations, particularly the decree of hazardous material and the legislative directives concerning health and safety at work. In part 1, a definition based on the law for hazardous material is given and the potential risks are mentioned. The correct documentation regarding the protection of the purchase, storage, working conditions and removal of hazardous material and of the personal is explained. General rules for the handling of hazardous material are described. In part 2, particular emphasis is put on the handling of flammable liquids, disinfectants, cytostatica, pressurised gas, liquid nitrogen, narcotics, mailing of potentially infectious material and safe disposal of hazardous waste. Advice about possible unrecognized hazards and references is also given.

Transportation of Hazardous Materials Emergency Preparedness Hazards Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blanchard, A.

This report documents the Emergency Preparedness Hazards Assessment (EPHA) for the Transportation of Hazardous Materials (THM) at the Department of Energy (DOE) Savannah River Site (SRS). This hazards assessment is intended to identify and analyze those transportation hazards significant enough to warrant consideration in the SRS Emergency Management Program.

Risk of heart failure after community acquired pneumonia: prospective controlled study with 10 years of follow-up

PubMed Central

Marrie, Thomas J; Minhas-Sandhu, Jasjeet K; Majumdar, Sumit R

2017-01-01

Abstract Objective To determine the attributable risk of community acquired pneumonia on incidence of heart failure throughout the age range of affected patients and severity of the infection. Design Cohort study. Setting Six hospitals and seven emergency departments in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, 2000-02. Participants 4988 adults with community acquired pneumonia and no history of heart failure were prospectively recruited and matched on age, sex, and setting of treatment (inpatient or outpatient) with up to five adults without pneumonia (controls) or prevalent heart failure (n=23 060). Main outcome measures Risk of hospital admission for incident heart failure or a combined endpoint of heart failure or death up to 2012, evaluated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses. Results The average age of participants was 55 years, 2649 (53.1%) were men, and 63.4% were managed as outpatients. Over a median of 9.9 years (interquartile range 5.9-10.6), 11.9% (n=592) of patients with pneumonia had incident heart failure compared with 7.4% (n=1712) of controls (adjusted hazard ratio 1.61, 95% confidence interval 1.44 to 1.81). Patients with pneumonia aged 65 or less had the lowest absolute increase (but greatest relative risk) of heart failure compared with controls (4.8% v 2.2%; adjusted hazard ratio 1.98, 95% confidence interval 1.5 to 2.53), whereas patients with pneumonia aged more than 65 years had the highest absolute increase (but lowest relative risk) of heart failure (24.8% v 18.9%; adjusted hazard ratio 1.55, 1.36 to 1.77). Results were consistent in the short term (90 days) and intermediate term (one year) and whether patients were treated in hospital or as outpatients. Conclusion Our results show that community acquired pneumonia substantially increases the risk of heart failure across the age and severity range of cases. This should be considered when formulating post-discharge care plans and preventive strategies, and assessing downstream episodes

Challenges in assessing seismic hazard in intraplate Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brooks, Edward; Stein, Seth; Liu, Mian; Camelbeeck, Thierry; Merino, Miguel; Landgraf, Angela; Hintersberger, Esther; Kübler, Simon

2016-04-01

Intraplate seismicity is often characterized by episodic, clustered and migrating earth- quakes and extended after-shock sequences. Can these observations - primarily from North America, China and Australia - usefully be applied to seismic hazard assessment for intraplate Europe? Existing assessments are based on instrumental and historical seismicity of the past c. 1000 years, as well as some data for active faults. This time span probably fails to capture typical large-event recurrence intervals of the order of tens of thousands of years. Palaeoseismology helps to lengthen the observation window, but preferentially produces data in regions suspected to be seismically active. Thus the expected maximum magnitudes of future earthquakes are fairly uncertain, possibly underestimated, and earthquakes are likely to occur in unexpected locations. These issues particularly arise in considering the hazards posed by low-probability events to both heavily populated areas and critical facilities. For example, are the variations in seismicity (and thus assumed seismic hazard) along the Rhine Graben a result of short sampling or are they real? In addition to a better assessment of hazards with new data and models, it is important to recognize and communicate uncertainties in hazard estimates. The more users know about how much confidence to place in hazard maps, the more effectively the maps can be used.

Hazard function theory for nonstationary natural hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Read, L.; Vogel, R. M.

2015-12-01

Studies from the natural hazards literature indicate that many natural processes, including wind speeds, landslides, wildfires, precipitation, streamflow and earthquakes, show evidence of nonstationary behavior such as trends in magnitudes through time. Traditional probabilistic analysis of natural hazards based on partial duration series (PDS) generally assumes stationarity in the magnitudes and arrivals of events, i.e. that the probability of exceedance is constant through time. Given evidence of trends and the consequent expected growth in devastating impacts from natural hazards across the world, new methods are needed to characterize their probabilistic behavior. The field of hazard function analysis (HFA) is ideally suited to this problem because its primary goal is to describe changes in the exceedance probability of an event over time. HFA is widely used in medicine, manufacturing, actuarial statistics, reliability engineering, economics, and elsewhere. HFA provides a rich theory to relate the natural hazard event series (x) with its failure time series (t), enabling computation of corresponding average return periods and reliabilities associated with nonstationary event series. This work investigates the suitability of HFA to characterize nonstationary natural hazards whose PDS magnitudes are assumed to follow the widely applied Poisson-GP model. We derive a 2-parameter Generalized Pareto hazard model and demonstrate how metrics such as reliability and average return period are impacted by nonstationarity and discuss the implications for planning and design. Our theoretical analysis linking hazard event series x, with corresponding failure time series t, should have application to a wide class of natural hazards.

Hazard function theory for nonstationary natural hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Read, Laura K.; Vogel, Richard M.

2016-04-01

Impact from natural hazards is a shared global problem that causes tremendous loss of life and property, economic cost, and damage to the environment. Increasingly, many natural processes show evidence of nonstationary behavior including wind speeds, landslides, wildfires, precipitation, streamflow, sea levels, and earthquakes. Traditional probabilistic analysis of natural hazards based on peaks over threshold (POT) generally assumes stationarity in the magnitudes and arrivals of events, i.e., that the probability of exceedance of some critical event is constant through time. Given increasing evidence of trends in natural hazards, new methods are needed to characterize their probabilistic behavior. The well-developed field of hazard function analysis (HFA) is ideally suited to this problem because its primary goal is to describe changes in the exceedance probability of an event over time. HFA is widely used in medicine, manufacturing, actuarial statistics, reliability engineering, economics, and elsewhere. HFA provides a rich theory to relate the natural hazard event series (X) with its failure time series (T), enabling computation of corresponding average return periods, risk, and reliabilities associated with nonstationary event series. This work investigates the suitability of HFA to characterize nonstationary natural hazards whose POT magnitudes are assumed to follow the widely applied generalized Pareto model. We derive the hazard function for this case and demonstrate how metrics such as reliability and average return period are impacted by nonstationarity and discuss the implications for planning and design. Our theoretical analysis linking hazard random variable X with corresponding failure time series T should have application to a wide class of natural hazards with opportunities for future extensions.

Depression and incident dementia. An 8-year population-based prospective study.

PubMed

Luppa, Melanie; Luck, Tobias; Ritschel, Franziska; Angermeyer, Matthias C; Villringer, Arno; Riedel-Heller, Steffi G

2013-01-01

The aim of the study was to investigate the impact of depression (categorical diagnosis; major depression, MD) and depressive symptoms (dimensional diagnosis and symptom patterns) on incident dementia in the German general population. Within the Leipzig Longitudinal Study of the Aged (LEILA 75+), a representative sample of 1,265 individuals aged 75 years and older were interviewed every 1.5 years over 8 years (mean observation time 4.3 years; mean number of visits 4.2). Cox proportional hazards and binary logistic regressions were used to estimate the effect of baseline depression and depressive symptoms on incident dementia. The incidence of dementia was 48 per 1,000 person-years (95% confidence interval (CI) 45-51). Depressive symptoms (Hazard ratio HR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.05), and in particular mood-related symptoms (HR 1.08, 95% CI 1.03-1.14), showed a significant impact on the incidence of dementia only in univariate analysis, but not after adjustment for cognitive and functional impairment. MD showed only a significant impact on incidence of dementia in Cox proportional hazards regression, but not in binary logistic regression models. The present study using different diagnostic measures of depression on future dementia found no clear significant associations of depression and incident dementia. Further in-depth investigation would help to understand the nature of depression in the context of incident dementia.

Volcanic-hazards assessments; past, present, and future

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crandell, D.R.

1991-01-01

Worldwide interest in volcanic-hazards assessments was greatly stimulated by the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens, just 2 years after a hazards assessment of the volcano was published in U.S Geological Survey Bulletin 1383-C. Many climactic eruption on May 18, although the extent of the unprecedented and devastating lateral blast was not anticipated. 

Seismic hazard analysis with PSHA method in four cities in Java.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elistyawati, Y.; Palupi, I. R.; Suharsono

2016-11-01

In this study the tectonic earthquakes was observed through the peak ground acceleration through the PSHA method by dividing the area of the earthquake source. This study applied the earthquake data from 1965 - 2015 that has been analyzed the completeness of the data, location research was the entire Java with stressed in four large cities prone to earthquakes. The results were found to be a hazard map with a return period of 500 years, 2500 years return period, and the hazard curve were four major cities (Jakarta, Bandung, Yogyakarta, and the city of Banyuwangi). Results Java PGA hazard map 500 years had a peak ground acceleration within 0 g ≥ 0.5 g, while the return period of 2500 years had a value of 0 to ≥ 0.8 g. While, the PGA hazard curves on the city's most influential source of the earthquake was from sources such as fault Cimandiri backgroud, for the city of Bandung earthquake sources that influence the seismic source fault dent background form. In other side, the city of Yogyakarta earthquake hazard curve of the most influential was the source of the earthquake background of the Opak fault, and the most influential hazard curve of Banyuwangi earthquake was the source of Java and Sumba megatruts earthquake.

Geological hazard monitoring system in Georgia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaprindashvili, George

2017-04-01

Georgia belongs to one of world's most complex mountainous regions according to the scale and frequency of Geological processes and damage caused to population, farmlands, and Infrastructure facilities. Geological hazards (landslide, debrisflow/mudflow, rockfall, erosion and etc.) are affecting many populated areas, agricultural fields, roads, oil and gas pipes, high-voltage electric power transmission towers, hydraulic structures, and tourist complexes. Landslides occur almost in all geomorphological zones, resulting in wide differentiation in the failure types and mechanisms and in the size-frequency distribution. In Georgia, geological hazards triggered by: 1. Activation of highly intense earthquakes; 2. Meteorological events provoking the disaster processes on the background of global climatic change; 3. Large-scale Human impact on the environment. The prediction and monitoring of Geological Hazards is a very wide theme, which involves different researchers from different spheres. Geological hazard monitoring is essential to prevent and mitigate these hazards. In past years in Georgia several monitoring system, such as Ground-based geodetic techniques, Debrisflow Early Warning System (EWS) were installed on high sensitive landslide and debrisflow areas. This work presents description of Geological hazard monitoring system in Georgia.

The Impact Hazard in the Context of Other Natural Hazards and Predictive Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, C. R.

1998-09-01

The hazard due to impact of asteroids and comets has been recognized as analogous, in some ways, to other infrequent but consequential natural hazards (e.g. floods and earthquakes). Yet, until recently, astronomers and space agencies have felt no need to do what their colleagues and analogous agencies must do in order the assess, quantify, and communicate predictions to those with a practical interest in the predictions (e.g. public officials who must assess the threats, prepare for mitigation, etc.). Recent heightened public interest in the impact hazard, combined with increasing numbers of "near misses" (certain to increase as Spaceguard is implemented) requires that astronomers accept the responsibility to place their predictions and assessments in terms that may be appropriately considered. I will report on preliminary results of a multi-year GSA/NCAR study of "Prediction in the Earth Sciences: Use and Misuse in Policy Making" in which I have represented the impact hazard, while others have treated earthquakes, floods, weather, global climate change, nuclear waste disposal, acid rain, etc. The impact hazard presents an end-member example of a natural hazard, helping those dealing with more prosaic issues to learn from an extreme. On the other hand, I bring to the astronomical community some lessons long adopted in other cases: the need to understand the policy purposes of impact predictions, the need to assess potential societal impacts, the requirements to very carefully assess prediction uncertainties, considerations of potential public uses of the predictions, awareness of ethical considerations (e.g. conflicts of interest) that affect predictions and acceptance of predictions, awareness of appropriate means for publicly communicating predictions, and considerations of the international context (especially for a hazard that knows no national boundaries).

Special Issue "Natural Hazards' Impact on Urban Areas and Infrastructure" in Natural Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bostenaru Dan, M.

2009-04-01

In 2006 and 2007, at the 3rd and 4th General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union respectivelly, the session on "Natural Hazards' Impact on Urban Areas and Infrastructure" was convened by Maria Bostenaru Dan, then at the Istituto Universitario di Studi Superiori di Pavia, ROSE School, Italy, who conducts research on earthquake management and Heidi Kreibich from the GFZ Potsdam, Germany, who conducts research on flood hazards, in 2007 being co-convened also by Agostino Goretti from the Civil Protection in Rome, Italy. The session initially started from an idea of Friedemann Wenzel from the Universität Karlsruhe (TH), Germany, the former speaker of the SFB 461 "Strong earthquakes", the university where also Maria Bostenaru graduated and worked and which runs together with the GFZ Potsdam the CEDIM, the Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology. Selected papers from these two sessions as well as invited papers from other specialists were gathered for a special issue to be published in the journal "Natural Hazards" under the guest editorship of Heidi Kreibich and Maria Bostenaru Dan. Unlike the former special issue, this one contains a well balanced mixture of many hazards: climate change, floods, mountain hazards like avalanches, volcanoes, earthquakes. Aim of the issue was to enlarge the co-operation prospects between geosciences and other professions in field of natural hazards. Earthquake engineering and engineering seismology are seen more frequently co-operating, but in field of natural hazards there is a need to co-operate with urban planners, and, looking to the future, also in the field of integrated conservation, which implies co-operation between architecture and urban planning for the preservation of our environment. Integrated conservation is stipulated since the 1970s, which are the years when the participatism, and so the involvment of social sciences started.

Hazard assessment of selenium to endangered razorback suckers (Xyrauchen texanus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hamilton, S.J.; Holley, K.M.; Buhl, K.J.

2002-01-01

A hazard assessment was conducted based on information derived from two reproduction studies conducted with endangered razorback suckers (Xyrauchen texanus) at three sites near Grand Junction, CO, USA. Selenium contamination of the upper and lower Colorado River basin has been documented in water, sediment, and biota in studies by US Department of the Interior agencies and academia. Concern has been raised that this selenium contamination may be adversely affecting endangered fish in the upper Colorado River basin. The reproduction studies with razorback suckers revealed that adults readily accumulated selenium in various tissues including eggs, and that 4.6 μg/g of selenium in food organisms caused increased mortality of larvae. The selenium hazard assessment protocol resulted in a moderate hazard at the Horsethief site and high hazards at the Adobe Creek and North Pond sites. The selenium hazard assessment was considered conservative because an on-site toxicity test with razorback sucker larvae using 4.6 μg/g selenium in zooplankton caused nearly complete mortality, in spite of the moderate hazard at Horsethief. Using the margin of uncertainty ratio also suggested a high hazard for effects on razorback suckers from selenium exposure. Both assessment approaches suggested that selenium in the upper Colorado River basin adversely affects the reproductive success of razorback suckers.

Hazard assessment of selenium to endangered razorback suckers (Xyrauchen texanus).

PubMed

Hamilton, Steven J; Holley, Kathleen M; Buhl, Kevin J

2002-05-27

A hazard assessment was conducted based on information derived from two reproduction studies conducted with endangered razorback suckers (Xyrauchen texanus) at three sites near Grand Junction, CO, USA. Selenium contamination of the upper and lower Colorado River basin has been documented in water, sediment, and biota in studies by US Department of the Interior agencies and academia. Concern has been raised that this selenium contamination may be adversely affecting endangered fish in the upper Colorado River basin. The reproduction studies with razorback suckers revealed that adults readily accumulated selenium in various tissues including eggs, and that 4.6 microg/g of selenium in food organisms caused increased mortality of larvae. The selenium hazard assessment protocol resulted in a moderate hazard at the Horsethief site and high hazards at the Adobe Creek and North Pond sites. The selenium hazard assessment was considered conservative because an on-site toxicity test with razorback sucker larvae using 4.6 microg/g selenium in zooplankton caused nearly complete mortality, in spite of the moderate hazard at Horsethief. Using the margin of uncertainty ratio also suggested a high hazard for effects on razorback suckers from selenium exposure. Both assessment approaches suggested that selenium in the upper Colorado River basin adversely affects the reproductive success of razorback suckers.

Axial Length/Corneal Radius of Curvature Ratio and Myopia in 3-Year-Old Children

PubMed Central

Foo, Valencia Hui Xian; Verkicharla, Pavan Kumar; Ikram, Mohammad Kamran; Chua, Sharon Yu Lin; Cai, Shirong; Tan, Chuen Seng; Chong, Yap-Seng; Kwek, Kenneth; Gluckman, Peter; Wong, Tien-Yin; Ngo, Cheryl; Saw, Seang-Mei; on behalf of the GUSTO study group

2016-01-01

Purpose This study investigated the association of axial length (AL) to corneal radius of curvature (CRC) ratio with spherical equivalent (SE) in a 3-year old Asian cohort. Methods Three-hundred forty-nine 3-year old Asian children from The Growing Up in Singapore towards Healthy Outcomes (GUSTO) birth cohort study underwent AL and CRC measurements with a noncontact ocular biometer and cycloplegic refraction using an autorefractor. The ratio of AL to CRC (AL/CRC) was calculated for all the participants, and subsequently AL, CRC, and AL/CRC were analyzed in relationship to SE. Results The SE showed better correlation with AL/CRC (Spearman's correlation coefficient, ρ = −0.53; 95% confidence interval [CI]: −0.66; −0.49; P < 0.001) compared to either AL or CRC alone ([ρ = −0.36; 95% CI: −0.51 to 0.51; P = 0.01] and [ρ = 0.05; 95% CI: −0.04 to 0.17; P = 0.34], respectively). Mean AL/CRC was 2.91 ± 0.06 among myopes and decreased to 2.79 ± 0.06 among hyperopes. Axial length to corneal radius of curvature was strongly correlated with SE in myopes (ρ = −0.78; 95% CI: −3.76; −0.79; P = < 0.001), but not in emmetropes and hyperopes ([ρ = −0.39; 95% CI: −10.73; −0.57; P = 0.01] and [ρ = −0.18; 95% CI: −17.28; 12.42; P = 0.38], respectively). Linear regression adjusted for gender and ethnicity showed a 0.74-diopter shift in SE towards myopia with every 0.1 increase in AL/CRC ratio (P < 0.001, r2 = 0.33). Conclusion The correlation between SE and AL/CRC is stronger than that between AL or CRC alone. This suggests that in a research setting, when cycloplegic refraction is difficult to perform on 3-year-old children, AL/CRC may be the next best reference for refractive error. Translational Relevance In the research setting, AL/CRC may be the next best reference for refractive error over AL alone when cycloplegic refraction is unavailable in 3-year old children. PMID:26929885

The Relative Severity of Single Hazards within a Multi-Hazard Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gill, Joel C.; Malamud, Bruce D.

2013-04-01

Here we present a description of the relative severity of single hazards within a multi-hazard framework, compiled through examining, quantifying and ranking the extent to which individual hazards trigger or increase the probability of other hazards. Hazards are broken up into six major groupings (geophysical, hydrological, shallow earth processes, atmospheric, biophysical and space), with the interactions for 21 different hazard types examined. These interactions include both one primary hazard triggering a secondary hazard, and one primary hazard increasing the probability of a secondary hazard occurring. We identify, through a wide-ranging review of grey- and peer-review literature, >90 interactions. The number of hazard-type linkages are then summed for each hazard in terms of their influence (the number of times one hazard type triggers another type of hazard, or itself) and their sensitivity (the number of times one hazard type is triggered by other hazard types, or itself). The 21 different hazards are then ranked based on (i) influence and (ii) sensitivity. We found, by quantification and ranking of these hazards, that: (i) The strongest influencers (those triggering the most secondary hazards) are volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and storms, which when taken together trigger almost a third of the possible hazard interactions identified; (ii) The most sensitive hazards (those being triggered by the most primary hazards) are identified to be landslides, volcanic eruptions and floods; (iii) When sensitivity rankings are adjusted to take into account the differential likelihoods of different secondary hazards being triggered, the most sensitive hazards are found to be landslides, floods, earthquakes and ground heave. We believe that by determining the strongest influencing and the most sensitive hazards for specific spatial areas, the allocation of resources for mitigation measures might be done more effectively.

Comparison of Fuzzy-Based Models in Landslide Hazard Mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mijani, N.; Neysani Samani, N.

2017-09-01

Landslide is one of the main geomorphic processes which effects on the development of prospect in mountainous areas and causes disastrous accidents. Landslide is an event which has different uncertain criteria such as altitude, slope, aspect, land use, vegetation density, precipitation, distance from the river and distance from the road network. This research aims to compare and evaluate different fuzzy-based models including Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (Fuzzy-AHP), Fuzzy Gamma and Fuzzy-OR. The main contribution of this paper reveals to the comprehensive criteria causing landslide hazard considering their uncertainties and comparison of different fuzzy-based models. The quantify of evaluation process are calculated by Density Ratio (DR) and Quality Sum (QS). The proposed methodology implemented in Sari, one of the city of Iran which has faced multiple landslide accidents in recent years due to the particular environmental conditions. The achieved results of accuracy assessment based on the quantifier strated that Fuzzy-AHP model has higher accuracy compared to other two models in landslide hazard zonation. Accuracy of zoning obtained from Fuzzy-AHP model is respectively 0.92 and 0.45 based on method Precision (P) and QS indicators. Based on obtained landslide hazard maps, Fuzzy-AHP, Fuzzy Gamma and Fuzzy-OR respectively cover 13, 26 and 35 percent of the study area with a very high risk level. Based on these findings, fuzzy-AHP model has been selected as the most appropriate method of zoning landslide in the city of Sari and the Fuzzy-gamma method with a minor difference is in the second order.

Urinary incontinence, depression, and economic outcomes in a cohort of women between the ages of 54 and 65 years.

PubMed

Hung, Kristin J; Awtrey, Christopher S; Tsai, Alexander C

2014-04-01

To estimate the association between urinary incontinence (UI) and probable depression, work disability, and workforce exit. The analytic sample consisted of 4,511 women enrolled in the population-based Health and Retirement Study cohort. The analysis baseline was 1996, the year that questions about UI were added to the survey instrument, and at which time study participants were 54-65 years of age. Women were followed-up with biennial interviews until 2010-2011. Outcomes of interest were onset of probable depression, work disability, and workforce exit. Urinary incontinence was specified in different ways based on questions about experience and frequency of urine loss. We fit Cox proportional hazards regression models to the data, adjusting the estimates for baseline sociodemographic and health status variables previously found to confound the association between UI and the outcomes of interest. At baseline, 727 participants (survey-weighted prevalence, 16.6%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 15.4-18.0) reported any UI, of which 212 (survey-weighted prevalence, 29.2%; 95% CI 25.4-33.3) reported urine loss on more than 15 days in the past month; and 1,052 participants were categorized as having probable depression (survey-weighted prevalence, 21.6%; 95% CI 19.8-23.6). Urinary incontinence was associated with increased risks for probable depression (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.43; 95% CI 1.27-1.62) and work disability (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.21; 95% CI 1.01-1.45), but not workforce exit (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.06; 95% CI 0.93-1.21). In a population-based cohort of women between ages 54 and 65 years, UI was associated with increased risks for probable depression and work disability. Improved diagnosis and management of UI may yield significant economic and psychosocial benefits.

Hazard function theory for nonstationary natural hazards

DOE PAGES

Read, Laura K.; Vogel, Richard M.

2016-04-11

Impact from natural hazards is a shared global problem that causes tremendous loss of life and property, economic cost, and damage to the environment. Increasingly, many natural processes show evidence of nonstationary behavior including wind speeds, landslides, wildfires, precipitation, streamflow, sea levels, and earthquakes. Traditional probabilistic analysis of natural hazards based on peaks over threshold (POT) generally assumes stationarity in the magnitudes and arrivals of events, i.e., that the probability of exceedance of some critical event is constant through time. Given increasing evidence of trends in natural hazards, new methods are needed to characterize their probabilistic behavior. The well-developed field ofmore » hazard function analysis (HFA) is ideally suited to this problem because its primary goal is to describe changes in the exceedance probability of an event over time. HFA is widely used in medicine, manufacturing, actuarial statistics, reliability engineering, economics, and elsewhere. HFA provides a rich theory to relate the natural hazard event series ( X) with its failure time series ( T), enabling computation of corresponding average return periods, risk, and reliabilities associated with nonstationary event series. This work investigates the suitability of HFA to characterize nonstationary natural hazards whose POT magnitudes are assumed to follow the widely applied generalized Pareto model. We derive the hazard function for this case and demonstrate how metrics such as reliability and average return period are impacted by nonstationarity and discuss the implications for planning and design. As a result, our theoretical analysis linking hazard random variable  X with corresponding failure time series  T should have application to a wide class of natural hazards with opportunities for future extensions.« less

Hazard function theory for nonstationary natural hazards

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Read, Laura K.; Vogel, Richard M.

Impact from natural hazards is a shared global problem that causes tremendous loss of life and property, economic cost, and damage to the environment. Increasingly, many natural processes show evidence of nonstationary behavior including wind speeds, landslides, wildfires, precipitation, streamflow, sea levels, and earthquakes. Traditional probabilistic analysis of natural hazards based on peaks over threshold (POT) generally assumes stationarity in the magnitudes and arrivals of events, i.e., that the probability of exceedance of some critical event is constant through time. Given increasing evidence of trends in natural hazards, new methods are needed to characterize their probabilistic behavior. The well-developed field ofmore » hazard function analysis (HFA) is ideally suited to this problem because its primary goal is to describe changes in the exceedance probability of an event over time. HFA is widely used in medicine, manufacturing, actuarial statistics, reliability engineering, economics, and elsewhere. HFA provides a rich theory to relate the natural hazard event series ( X) with its failure time series ( T), enabling computation of corresponding average return periods, risk, and reliabilities associated with nonstationary event series. This work investigates the suitability of HFA to characterize nonstationary natural hazards whose POT magnitudes are assumed to follow the widely applied generalized Pareto model. We derive the hazard function for this case and demonstrate how metrics such as reliability and average return period are impacted by nonstationarity and discuss the implications for planning and design. As a result, our theoretical analysis linking hazard random variable  X with corresponding failure time series  T should have application to a wide class of natural hazards with opportunities for future extensions.« less

Hazard function theory for nonstationary natural hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Read, L. K.; Vogel, R. M.

2015-11-01

Impact from natural hazards is a shared global problem that causes tremendous loss of life and property, economic cost, and damage to the environment. Increasingly, many natural processes show evidence of nonstationary behavior including wind speeds, landslides, wildfires, precipitation, streamflow, sea levels, and earthquakes. Traditional probabilistic analysis of natural hazards based on peaks over threshold (POT) generally assumes stationarity in the magnitudes and arrivals of events, i.e. that the probability of exceedance of some critical event is constant through time. Given increasing evidence of trends in natural hazards, new methods are needed to characterize their probabilistic behavior. The well-developed field of hazard function analysis (HFA) is ideally suited to this problem because its primary goal is to describe changes in the exceedance probability of an event over time. HFA is widely used in medicine, manufacturing, actuarial statistics, reliability engineering, economics, and elsewhere. HFA provides a rich theory to relate the natural hazard event series (X) with its failure time series (T), enabling computation of corresponding average return periods, risk and reliabilities associated with nonstationary event series. This work investigates the suitability of HFA to characterize nonstationary natural hazards whose POT magnitudes are assumed to follow the widely applied Generalized Pareto (GP) model. We derive the hazard function for this case and demonstrate how metrics such as reliability and average return period are impacted by nonstationarity and discuss the implications for planning and design. Our theoretical analysis linking hazard event series X, with corresponding failure time series T, should have application to a wide class of natural hazards with rich opportunities for future extensions.

Afghanistan Multi-Risk Assessment to Natural Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diermanse, Ferdinand; Daniell, James; Pollino, Maurizio; Glover, James; Bouwer, Laurens; de Bel, Mark; Schaefer, Andreas; Puglisi, Claudio; Winsemius, Hessel; Burzel, Andreas; Ammann, Walter; Aliparast, Mojtaba; Jongman, Brenden; Ranghieri, Federica; Fallesen, Ditte

2017-04-01

The geographical location of Afghanistan and years of environmental degradation in the country make Afghanistan highly prone to intense and recurring natural hazards such as flooding, earthquakes, snow avalanches, landslides, and droughts. These occur in addition to man-made disasters resulting in the frequent loss of live, livelihoods, and property. Since 1980, disasters caused by natural hazards have affected 9 million people and caused over 20,000 fatalities in Afghanistan. The creation, understanding and accessibility of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk information is key for effective management of disaster risk. This is especially true in Afghanistan, where reconstruction after recent natural disasters and military conflicts is on-going and will continue over the coming years. So far, there has been limited disaster risk information produced in Afghanistan, and information that does exist typically lacks standard methodology and does not have uniform geo-spatial coverage. There are currently no available risk assessment studies that cover all major natural hazards in Afghanistan, which can be used to assess the costs and benefits of different resilient reconstruction and disaster risk reduction strategies. As a result, the Government of Afghanistan has limited information regarding current and future disaster risk and the effectiveness of policy options on which to base their reconstruction and risk reduction decisions. To better understand natural hazard and disaster risk, the World Bank and Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) are supporting the development of new fluvial flood, flash flood, drought, landslide, avalanche and seismic risk information in Afghanistan, as well as a first-order analysis of the costs and benefits of resilient reconstruction and risk reduction strategies undertaken by the authors. The hazard component is the combination of probability and magnitude of natural hazards. Hazard analyses were carried out

Hazardous factories: Nigerian evidence.

PubMed

Oloyede, Olajide

2005-06-01

The past 15 years have seen an increasing governmental and corporate concern for the environment worldwide. For governments, information about the environmental performance of the industrial sector is required to inform macro-level decisions about environmental targets such as those required to meet UN directives. However, in many African, Asian, and Latin American countries, researching and reporting company environmental performance is limited. This article serves as a contribution to filling the gap by presenting evidence of physical and chemical risk in Nigerian factories. One hundred and three factories with a total of 5,021 workers were studied. One hundred and twenty physical and chemical hazards were identified and the result shows a high number of workers exposed to such hazards. The study also reveals that workers' awareness level of chemical hazards was high. Yet the danger was perceived in behavioral terms, especially by manufacturing firms, which tend to see environmental investment in an increasingly global economy as detrimental to profitability.

Hazard Interactions and Interaction Networks (Cascades) within Multi-Hazard Methodologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gill, Joel; Malamud, Bruce D.

2016-04-01

Here we combine research and commentary to reinforce the importance of integrating hazard interactions and interaction networks (cascades) into multi-hazard methodologies. We present a synthesis of the differences between 'multi-layer single hazard' approaches and 'multi-hazard' approaches that integrate such interactions. This synthesis suggests that ignoring interactions could distort management priorities, increase vulnerability to other spatially relevant hazards or underestimate disaster risk. We proceed to present an enhanced multi-hazard framework, through the following steps: (i) describe and define three groups (natural hazards, anthropogenic processes and technological hazards/disasters) as relevant components of a multi-hazard environment; (ii) outline three types of interaction relationship (triggering, increased probability, and catalysis/impedance); and (iii) assess the importance of networks of interactions (cascades) through case-study examples (based on literature, field observations and semi-structured interviews). We further propose visualisation frameworks to represent these networks of interactions. Our approach reinforces the importance of integrating interactions between natural hazards, anthropogenic processes and technological hazards/disasters into enhanced multi-hazard methodologies. Multi-hazard approaches support the holistic assessment of hazard potential, and consequently disaster risk. We conclude by describing three ways by which understanding networks of interactions contributes to the theoretical and practical understanding of hazards, disaster risk reduction and Earth system management. Understanding interactions and interaction networks helps us to better (i) model the observed reality of disaster events, (ii) constrain potential changes in physical and social vulnerability between successive hazards, and (iii) prioritise resource allocation for mitigation and disaster risk reduction.

Mini-Sosie high-resolution seismic method aids hazards studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stephenson, W.J.; Odum, J.; Shedlock, K.M.; Pratt, T.L.; Williams, R.A.

1992-01-01

The Mini-Sosie high-resolution seismic method has been effective in imaging shallow-structure and stratigraphic features that aid in seismic-hazard and neotectonic studies. The method is not an alternative to Vibroseis acquisition for large-scale studies. However, it has two major advantages over Vibroseis as it is being used by the USGS in its seismic-hazards program. First, the sources are extremely portable and can be used in both rural and urban environments. Second, the shifting-and-summation process during acquisition improves the signal-to-noise ratio and cancels out seismic noise sources such as cars and pedestrians. -from Authors

Integrating volcanic hazard data in a systematic approach to develop volcanic hazard maps in the Lesser Antilles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindsay, Jan M.; Robertson, Richard E. A.

2018-04-01

We report on the process of generating the first suite of integrated volcanic hazard zonation maps for the islands of Dominica, Grenada (including Kick 'em Jenny and Ronde/Caille), Nevis, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Kitts, Saint Lucia and St Vincent in the Lesser Antilles. We developed a systematic approach that accommodated the range in prior knowledge of the volcanoes in the region. A first-order hazard assessment for each island was used to develop one or more scenario(s) of likely future activity, for which scenario-based hazard maps were generated. For the most-likely scenario on each island we also produced a poster-sized integrated volcanic hazard zonation map, which combined the individual hazardous phenomena depicted in the scenario-based hazard maps into integrated hazard zones. We document the philosophy behind the generation of this suite of maps, and the method by which hazard information was combined to create integrated hazard zonation maps, and illustrate our approach through a case study of St. Vincent. We also outline some of the challenges we faced using this approach, and the lessons we have learned by observing how stakeholders have interacted with the maps over the past 10 years. Based on our experience, we recommend that future map makers involve stakeholders in the entire map generation process, especially when making design choices such as type of base map, use of colour and gradational boundaries, and indeed what to depict on the map. We also recommend careful consideration of how to evaluate and depict offshore hazard of island volcanoes, and recommend computer-assisted modelling of all phenomena to generate more realistic hazard footprints. Finally, although our systematic approach to integrating individual hazard data into zones generally worked well, we suggest that a better approach might be to treat the integration of hazards on a case-by-case basis to ensure the final product meets map users' needs. We hope that the documentation of

Applying Additive Hazards Models for Analyzing Survival in Patients with Colorectal Cancer in Fars Province, Southern Iran

PubMed

Madadizadeh, Farzan; Ghanbarnejad, Amin; Ghavami, Vahid; Zare Bandamiri, Mohammad; Mohammadianpanah, Mohammad

2017-04-01

Introduction: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a commonly fatal cancer that ranks as third worldwide and third and the fifth in Iranian women and men, respectively. There are several methods for analyzing time to event data. Additive hazards regression models take priority over the popular Cox proportional hazards model if the absolute hazard (risk) change instead of hazard ratio is of primary concern, or a proportionality assumption is not made. Methods: This study used data gathered from medical records of 561 colorectal cancer patients who were admitted to Namazi Hospital, Shiraz, Iran, during 2005 to 2010 and followed until December 2015. The nonparametric Aalen’s additive hazards model, semiparametric Lin and Ying’s additive hazards model and Cox proportional hazards model were applied for data analysis. The proportionality assumption for the Cox model was evaluated with a test based on the Schoenfeld residuals and for test goodness of fit in additive models, Cox-Snell residual plots were used. Analyses were performed with SAS 9.2 and R3.2 software. Results: The median follow-up time was 49 months. The five-year survival rate and the mean survival time after cancer diagnosis were 59.6% and 68.1±1.4 months, respectively. Multivariate analyses using Lin and Ying’s additive model and the Cox proportional model indicated that the age of diagnosis, site of tumor, stage, and proportion of positive lymph nodes, lymphovascular invasion and type of treatment were factors affecting survival of the CRC patients. Conclusion: Additive models are suitable alternatives to the Cox proportionality model if there is interest in evaluation of absolute hazard change, or no proportionality assumption is made. Creative Commons Attribution License

Long-term heart disease and stroke mortality among former American prisoners of war of World War II and the Korean Conflict: results of a 50-year follow-up.

PubMed

Page, W F; Brass, L M

2001-09-01

For the first 30 years after repatriation, former American prisoners of war (POWs) of World War II and the Korean Conflict had lower death rates for heart disease and stroke than non-POW veteran controls and the U.S. population, but subsequent morbidity data suggested that this survival advantage may have disappeared. We used U.S. federal records to obtain death data through 1996 and used proportional hazards analysis to compare the mortality experience of POWs and controls. POWs aged 75 years and older showed a significantly higher risk of heart disease deaths than controls (hazard ratio = 1.25; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.56), and their stroke mortality was also increased, although not significantly (hazard ratio = 1.13; 95% confidence interval, 0.66-1.91). These results suggest that circulatory disease sequelae of serious, acute malnutrition and the stresses associated with imprisonment may not appear until after many decades.

Hazard interactions and interaction networks (cascades) within multi-hazard methodologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gill, Joel C.; Malamud, Bruce D.

2016-08-01

This paper combines research and commentary to reinforce the importance of integrating hazard interactions and interaction networks (cascades) into multi-hazard methodologies. We present a synthesis of the differences between multi-layer single-hazard approaches and multi-hazard approaches that integrate such interactions. This synthesis suggests that ignoring interactions between important environmental and anthropogenic processes could distort management priorities, increase vulnerability to other spatially relevant hazards or underestimate disaster risk. In this paper we proceed to present an enhanced multi-hazard framework through the following steps: (i) description and definition of three groups (natural hazards, anthropogenic processes and technological hazards/disasters) as relevant components of a multi-hazard environment, (ii) outlining of three types of interaction relationship (triggering, increased probability, and catalysis/impedance), and (iii) assessment of the importance of networks of interactions (cascades) through case study examples (based on the literature, field observations and semi-structured interviews). We further propose two visualisation frameworks to represent these networks of interactions: hazard interaction matrices and hazard/process flow diagrams. Our approach reinforces the importance of integrating interactions between different aspects of the Earth system, together with human activity, into enhanced multi-hazard methodologies. Multi-hazard approaches support the holistic assessment of hazard potential and consequently disaster risk. We conclude by describing three ways by which understanding networks of interactions contributes to the theoretical and practical understanding of hazards, disaster risk reduction and Earth system management. Understanding interactions and interaction networks helps us to better (i) model the observed reality of disaster events, (ii) constrain potential changes in physical and social vulnerability

A human health assessment of hazardous air pollutants in Portland, OR.

PubMed

Tam, B N; Neumann, C M

2004-11-01

Ambient air samples collected from five monitoring sites in Portland, OR during July 1999 to August 2000 were analyzed for 43 hazardous air pollutants (HAP). HAP concentrations were compared to carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic benchmark levels. Carcinogenic benchmark concentrations were set at a risk level of one-in-one-million (1x10(-6)). Hazard ratios of 1.0 were used when comparing HAP concentrations to non-carcinogenic benchmarks. Emission sources (point, area, and mobile) were identified and a cumulative cancer risk and total hazard index were calculated for HAPs exceeding these health benchmark levels. Seventeen HAPs exceeded a cancer risk level of 1x10(-6) at all five monitoring sites. Nineteen HAPs exceeded this level at one or more site. Carbon tetrachloride, 1,3-butadiene, formaldehyde, and 1,1,2,2-tetrachloroethane contributed more than 50% to the upper-bound lifetime cumulative cancer risk of 2.47x10(-4). Acrolein was the only non-carcinogenic HAP with hazard ratios that exceeded 1.0 at all five sites. Mobile sources contributed the greatest percentage (68%) of HAP emissions. Additional monitoring and health assessments for HAPs in Portland, OR are warranted, including addressing issues that may have overestimated or underestimated risks in this study. Abatement strategies for HAPs that exceeded health benchmarks should be implemented to reduce potential adverse health risks.

Cancer and Alcohol Consumption in People Aged 50 Years or More in Europe.

PubMed

Bosque-Prous, Marina; Mendieta-Paredes, Jenny; Bartroli, Montse; Brugal, M Teresa; Espelt, Albert

2018-05-01

To estimate the prevalence of hazardous drinking in individuals aged 50 and older who had or had had cancer in 17 European countries and Israel and to analyze the factors associated with their consumption. Cross-sectional study based on data from 2011 to 2013 SHARE surveys. A total of 69,509 individuals aged 50 or more from 17 European countries and Israel participated in the study. Prevalence of hazardous drinking in people with cancer was estimated (adapting the SHARE questionnaire to the AUDIT-C). To ascertain whether type of cancer or time since diagnosis were associated with hazardous drinking, Poisson regression models with robust variance were estimated, obtaining prevalence ratios (PR). Overall, 5.4% of participants reported having been diagnosed with cancer. Prevalence of hazardous drinking in people with cancer was 18% in women and 23% in men. After adjusting for various socioeconomic and health variables, no significant differences were observed between hazardous drinking and type of cancer [PR = 0.99 (95% confidence interval (95% CI) = 0.83-1.17) in people with alcohol-related cancers compared to non-alcohol related cancers] and time since diagnosis [PR = 1.01 (95% CI = 0.82-1.25) in people with a cancer diagnosed >5 years ago compared to those diagnosed ≤5 years ago]. Significant differences were found between hazardous drinking and smoking status and self-perceived health. In total, 20% of people diagnosed with cancer were hazardous drinkers, despite the known relationship between alcohol use and a worse prognosis of the disease and an increased likelihood of recurrence. Overall, 20% of people diagnosed with cancer were hazardous drinkers. There were no significant differences in the prevalence of hazardous drinking depending on the type of cancer (alcohol-related versus non-alcohol related cancers). Highest prevalence of hazardous drinking in people with cancer is found in smokers and people with good self-perceived health.

Considering the ranges of uncertainties in the New Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Germany - Version 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grunthal, Gottfried; Stromeyer, Dietrich; Bosse, Christian; Cotton, Fabrice; Bindi, Dino

2017-04-01

The seismic load parameters for the upcoming National Annex to the Eurocode 8 result from the reassessment of the seismic hazard supported by the German Institution for Civil Engineering . This 2016 version of hazard assessment for Germany as target area was based on a comprehensive involvement of all accessible uncertainties in models and parameters into the approach and the provision of a rational framework for facilitating the uncertainties in a transparent way. The developed seismic hazard model represents significant improvements; i.e. it is based on updated and extended databases, comprehensive ranges of models, robust methods and a selection of a set of ground motion prediction equations of their latest generation. The output specifications were designed according to the user oriented needs as suggested by two review teams supervising the entire project. In particular, seismic load parameters were calculated for rock conditions with a vS30 of 800 ms-1 for three hazard levels (10%, 5% and 2% probability of occurrence or exceedance within 50 years) in form of, e.g., uniform hazard spectra (UHS) based on 19 sprectral periods in the range of 0.01 - 3s, seismic hazard maps for spectral response accelerations for different spectral periods or for macroseismic intensities. The developed hazard model consists of a logic tree with 4040 end branches and essential innovations employed to capture epistemic uncertainties and aleatory variabilities. The computation scheme enables the sound calculation of the mean and any quantile of required seismic load parameters. Mean, median and 84th percentiles of load parameters were provided together with the full calculation model to clearly illustrate the uncertainties of such a probabilistic assessment for a region of a low-to-moderate level of seismicity. The regional variations of these uncertainties (e.g. ratios between the mean and median hazard estimations) were analyzed and discussed.

Disaster Risks Reduction for Extreme Natural Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plag, H.; Jules-Plag, S.

2013-12-01

Mega disasters associated with extreme natural hazards have the potential to escalate the global sustainability crisis and put us close to the boundaries of the safe operating space for humanity. Floods and droughts are major threats that potentially could reach planetary extent, particularly through secondary economic and social impacts. Earthquakes and tsunamis frequently cause disasters that eventually could exceed the immediate coping capacity of the global economy, particularly since we have built mega cities in hazardous areas that are now ready to be harvested by natural hazards. Unfortunately, the more we learn to cope with the relatively frequent hazards (50 to 100 years events), the less we are worried about the low-probability, high-impact events (a few hundred and more years events). As a consequence, threats from the 500 years flood, drought, volcano eruption are not appropriately accounted for in disaster risk reduction (DRR) discussions. Extreme geohazards have occurred regularly throughout the past, but mostly did not cause major disasters because exposure of human assets to hazards was much lower in the past. The most extreme events that occurred during the last 2,000 years would today cause unparalleled damage on a global scale and could worsen the sustainability crisis. Simulation of these extreme hazards under present conditions can help to assess the disaster risk. Recent extreme earthquakes have illustrated the destruction they can inflict, both directly and indirectly through tsunamis. Large volcano eruptions have the potential to impact climate, anthropogenic infrastructure and resource supplies on global scale. During the last 2,000 years several large volcano eruptions occurred, which under today's conditions are associated with extreme disaster risk. The comparison of earthquakes and volcano eruptions indicates that large volcano eruptions are the low-probability geohazards with potentially the highest impact on our civilization

Lifecycle Management of Hazardous Materials/ Hazardous Waste. Revision 1.

DTIC Science & Technology

1997-02-01

1 WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT HAZARDOUS MATERIALS (HM) ....................... 1 PURCHASING HAZARDOUS MATERIALS...20 Figures 1 . Acquisition Flowchart .................................. 12 2. NRaD Hazardous Material Pre-Purchase Checklist ........ 13 3. NRaD...Hazardous Waste Profile Sheet (Part 111) .................. 18 Tables 1 . Class 1 Ozone Depleting Substances .................... 11 i INTRODUCTION This

Lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio is associated with survival in pembrolizumab-treated metastatic melanoma patients.

PubMed

Failing, Jarrett J; Yan, Yiyi; Porrata, Luis F; Markovic, Svetomir N

2017-12-01

The peripheral blood lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR) has been associated with prognosis in many malignancies including metastatic melanoma. However, it has not been studied in patients treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors. In this study, we analyzed the baseline LMR with progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in metastatic melanoma patients treated with pembrolizumab. A total of 133 patients with metastatic melanoma treated with pembrolizumab were included in this retrospective study. LMR was calculated from pretherapy peripheral blood counts and the optimal cutoff value was determined by a receiver operator characteristic curve. PFS and OS were evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier method and multivariate Cox proportional hazard modeling. Patients with an LMR of at least 1.7 showed improved PFS (hazard ratio=0.55; 95% confidence interval: 0.34-0.92; P=0.024) and OS (hazard ratio=0.29; 95% confidence interval: 0.15-0.59; P=0.0007). The baseline LMR is associated with PFS and OS in metastatic melanoma patients treated with pembrolizumab, and could represent a convenient and cost-effective prognostic biomarker. Validation of these findings in an independent cohort is needed.

Weight-to-height ratio and aerobic capacity in 15-year-old male taekwondo martial artists.

PubMed

Poliszczuk, Tatiana; Jankowska, Ewa; Poliszczuk, Dmytro

2013-01-01

Martial arts are growing in popularity throughout the whole world. Their beneficial influence on physical development and fitness is noteworthy. Martial arts are an attractive form of physical recreation, constitute a perfect means for combating stress, and have a positive effect on general health, including during rehabilitation. The aim of this study is to assess physical development and aerobic capacity in boys who practice taekwondo and to determine the relationships between results of a fitness test and particular parameters of physical development. Study participants comparised 51 boys aged 15 years who practiced taekwondo (with training experience ranging from 1 to 6 years). Volkov´s modification of the Harvard Step Test was used to assess body height and body mass. BMI was also calculated. Centile charts were used to assess weight-to-height ratio and the level of measured parameters. BMI was analyzed according to the Cole classification system. Dispersion was calculated using a coefficient of variation. The Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient between selected parameters was also calculated. Most study participants had normal BMI, but 30% showed overweight and 13% showed underweight or emaciation. Weight-to-height ratio differed significantly from the norm in 33% of the boys when compared to centile charts. All participants had average aerobic capacity. However, when weight-to-height ratio was compared to the results of the Harvard Step Test, boys with normal body proportions performed much better in the test than boys with abnormal body mass (p<0.05). Study participants showed abnormal weight-to-height ratio mainly in terms of overweight. The boys had greater body height and body mass compared to the general Polish population. Aerobic capacity differed considerably between participants.

Physically and psychologically hazardous jobs and mental health in Thailand

PubMed Central

Yiengprugsawan, Vasoontara; Strazdins, Lyndall; Lim, Lynette L.-Y.; Kelly, Matthew; Seubsman, Sam-ang; Sleigh, Adrian C.

2015-01-01

This paper investigates associations between hazardous jobs, mental health and wellbeing among Thai adults. In 2005, 87 134 distance-learning students from Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University completed a self-administered questionnaire; at the 2009 follow-up 60 569 again participated. Job characteristics were reported in 2005, psychological distress and life satisfaction were reported in both 2005 and 2009. We derived two composite variables grading psychologically and physically hazardous jobs and reported adjusted odds ratios (AOR) from multivariate logistic regressions. Analyses focused on cohort members in paid work: the total was 62 332 at 2005 baseline and 41 671 at 2009 follow-up. Cross-sectional AORs linking psychologically hazardous jobs to psychological distress ranged from 1.52 (one hazard) to 4.48 (four hazards) for males and a corresponding 1.34–3.76 for females. Similarly AORs for physically hazardous jobs were 1.75 (one hazard) to 2.76 (four or more hazards) for males and 1.70–3.19 for females. A similar magnitude of associations was found between psychologically adverse jobs and low life satisfaction (AORs of 1.34–4.34 among males and 1.18–3.63 among females). Longitudinal analyses confirm these cross-sectional relationships. Thus, significant dose–response associations were found linking hazardous job exposures in 2005 to mental health and wellbeing in 2009. The health impacts of psychologically and physically hazardous jobs in developed, Western countries are equally evident in transitioning Southeast Asian countries such as Thailand. Regulation and monitoring of work conditions will become increasingly important to the health and wellbeing of the Thai workforce. PMID:24218225

Physically and psychologically hazardous jobs and mental health in Thailand.

PubMed

Yiengprugsawan, Vasoontara; Strazdins, Lyndall; Lim, Lynette L-Y; Kelly, Matthew; Seubsman, Sam-ang; Sleigh, Adrian C

2015-09-01

This paper investigates associations between hazardous jobs, mental health and wellbeing among Thai adults. In 2005, 87 134 distance-learning students from Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University completed a self-administered questionnaire; at the 2009 follow-up 60 569 again participated. Job characteristics were reported in 2005, psychological distress and life satisfaction were reported in both 2005 and 2009. We derived two composite variables grading psychologically and physically hazardous jobs and reported adjusted odds ratios (AOR) from multivariate logistic regressions. Analyses focused on cohort members in paid work: the total was 62 332 at 2005 baseline and 41 671 at 2009 follow-up. Cross-sectional AORs linking psychologically hazardous jobs to psychological distress ranged from 1.52 (one hazard) to 4.48 (four hazards) for males and a corresponding 1.34-3.76 for females. Similarly AORs for physically hazardous jobs were 1.75 (one hazard) to 2.76 (four or more hazards) for males and 1.70-3.19 for females. A similar magnitude of associations was found between psychologically adverse jobs and low life satisfaction (AORs of 1.34-4.34 among males and 1.18-3.63 among females). Longitudinal analyses confirm these cross-sectional relationships. Thus, significant dose-response associations were found linking hazardous job exposures in 2005 to mental health and wellbeing in 2009. The health impacts of psychologically and physically hazardous jobs in developed, Western countries are equally evident in transitioning Southeast Asian countries such as Thailand. Regulation and monitoring of work conditions will become increasingly important to the health and wellbeing of the Thai workforce. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press.

The California Hazards Institute

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rundle, J. B.; Kellogg, L. H.; Turcotte, D. L.

2006-12-01

leaders, managers, stakeholders, policy makers, educators and the public to effectively and comprehensively combat the problems caused by the natural hazards that threaten California. During this first year of operation, UC faculty involved in the CHI will identify the science and technology research priorities of the Institute, followed by the solicitation of participation by other important stakeholders within California. The CHI is founded upon the idea that the hazards associated with events such as earthquakes and floods need not become great disasters such as the San Francisco earthquake of 1906 and 2005 Hurricane Katrina if these hazards can be anticipated proactively, before they must be dealt with reactively.

Evaluation of seismic hazard at the northwestern part of Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ezzelarab, M.; Shokry, M. M. F.; Mohamed, A. M. E.; Helal, A. M. A.; Mohamed, Abuoelela A.; El-Hadidy, M. S.

2016-01-01

The objective of this study is to evaluate the seismic hazard at the northwestern Egypt using the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment approach. The Probabilistic approach was carried out based on a recent data set to take into account the historic seismicity and updated instrumental seismicity. A homogenous earthquake catalogue was compiled and a proposed seismic sources model was presented. The doubly-truncated exponential model was adopted for calculations of the recurrence parameters. Ground-motion prediction equations that recently recommended by experts and developed based upon earthquake data obtained from tectonic environments similar to those in and around the studied area were weighted and used for assessment of seismic hazard in the frame of logic tree approach. Considering a grid of 0.2° × 0.2° covering the study area, seismic hazard curves for every node were calculated. Hazard maps at bedrock conditions were produced for peak ground acceleration, in addition to six spectral periods (0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0 s) for return periods of 72, 475 and 2475 years. The unified hazard spectra of two selected rock sites at Alexandria and Mersa Matruh Cities were provided. Finally, the hazard curves were de-aggregated to determine the sources that contribute most of hazard level of 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years for the mentioned selected sites.

Globe of Natural Hazard - A new assessment tool for risk managers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siebert, A. C.

2009-04-01

A large number of tropical cyclones and the earthquake in Sichuan made 2008 one of the most devastating years on record. Throughout the world, more than 220,000 people died as a result of natural catastrophes this year. Overall losses totaled some US 200bn (2007: US 82bn). Insured losses in 2008 rose to US 45bn, about 50% higher than in the previous year. Mainly driven by high losses from weather-related natural catastrophes, 2008 was - on the basis of figures adjusted for inflation - even the third most expensive year on record for the insurance industry, exceeded only by the hurricane year of 2005 and by 1995, the year of the Kobe earthquake. Munich Re, a worldwide operating reinsurance company, is a world leader in terms of investigating risks from natural hazards of all kinds. 2008 has again shown the insurance industry how important it is to analyse risks like natural hazards and climate change in all their facets and to manage the insurance business accordingly. An excellent example of the wealth of knowledge Munich Re has developed in natural hazard assessment is the DVD "Globe of Natural Hazards". It combines the geoscientific data and findings Munich Re has accumulated over a period of 35 years. First devised as a wall-map in 1978, the product has established itself as a standard work for the identification, exposure assessment and risk management of natural hazards. Over 80,000 copies of the CD-ROM version of 2000 have been provided to clients - a mark achieved by no other service product in Munich Re's history. Since the beginning of 2009, the fully updated fourth-generation version has been available. The bilingual DVD (German and English) shows natural hazards and climate effects at a glance: the global maps are presented on a 3D globe, underlaid with satellite images. The hazard complexes of hail, tornado and winter storms have been completely revised and flood incorporated as a new hazard. Users can intuitively home in on and enlarge any location on

Waist-to-hip ratio and body mass index as risk factors for cardiovascular events in CKD.

PubMed

Elsayed, Essam F; Tighiouart, Hocine; Weiner, Daniel E; Griffith, John; Salem, Deeb; Levey, Andrew S; Sarnak, Mark J

2008-07-01

The role of obesity as a risk factor for cardiovascular disease in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) is poorly understood. Waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) is less influenced by muscle and bone mass than body mass index (BMI). We compared WHR and BMI as risk factors for cardiac events (myocardial infarction and fatal coronary disease) in persons with CKD. Cohort study. Persons with CKD, defined as baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate of 15 to 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2), drawn from 2 community studies: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study and the Cardiovascular Health Study. WHR, waist circumference, and BMI. Myocardial infarction and fatal coronary heart disease. Of 1,669 participants with CKD, mean age was 70.3 years and 56% were women. Mean (SD) WHRs were 0.97 +/- 0.08 in men and 0.90 +/- 0.07 in women; mean (SD) BMI was 27.2 +/- 4.6 kg/m(2). During a mean of 9.3 years of follow-up, there were 334 cardiac events. In multivariable-adjusted Cox models, the highest WHR group (n = 386) was associated with an increased risk of cardiac events compared with the lowest WHR group (hazard ratio, 1.36; 95% confidence interval, 1.01 to 1.83). Obesity, defined as BMI greater than 30 kg/m(2) (n = 381), was not associated with cardiac events (hazard ratio, 0.86; 95% confidence interval, 0.62 to 1.20) in comparison to participants with normal BMI (<25 kg/m(2)). Results with waist circumference were similar to those with BMI. Absence of a gold standard for measurement of visceral fat. WHR, but not BMI, is associated with cardiac events in persons with CKD. Relying exclusively on BMI may underestimate the importance of obesity as a cardiovascular disease risk factor in persons with CKD.

Landslide Hazard Mapping in Rwanda Using Logistic Regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piller, A.; Anderson, E.; Ballard, H.

2015-12-01

Landslides in the United States cause more than $1 billion in damages and 50 deaths per year (USGS 2014). Globally, figures are much more grave, yet monitoring, mapping and forecasting of these hazards are less than adequate. Seventy-five percent of the population of Rwanda earns a living from farming, mostly subsistence. Loss of farmland, housing, or life, to landslides is a very real hazard. Landslides in Rwanda have an impact at the economic, social, and environmental level. In a developing nation that faces challenges in tracking, cataloging, and predicting the numerous landslides that occur each year, satellite imagery and spatial analysis allow for remote study. We have focused on the development of a landslide inventory and a statistical methodology for assessing landslide hazards. Using logistic regression on approximately 30 test variables (i.e. slope, soil type, land cover, etc.) and a sample of over 200 landslides, we determine which variables are statistically most relevant to landslide occurrence in Rwanda. A preliminary predictive hazard map for Rwanda has been produced, using the variables selected from the logistic regression analysis.

Ensemble of ground subsidence hazard maps using fuzzy logic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Inhye; Lee, Jiyeong; Saro, Lee

2014-06-01

Hazard maps of ground subsidence around abandoned underground coal mines (AUCMs) in Samcheok, Korea, were constructed using fuzzy ensemble techniques and a geographical information system (GIS). To evaluate the factors related to ground subsidence, a spatial database was constructed from topographic, geologic, mine tunnel, land use, groundwater, and ground subsidence maps. Spatial data, topography, geology, and various ground-engineering data for the subsidence area were collected and compiled in a database for mapping ground-subsidence hazard (GSH). The subsidence area was randomly split 70/30 for training and validation of the models. The relationships between the detected ground-subsidence area and the factors were identified and quantified by frequency ratio (FR), logistic regression (LR) and artificial neural network (ANN) models. The relationships were used as factor ratings in the overlay analysis to create ground-subsidence hazard indexes and maps. The three GSH maps were then used as new input factors and integrated using fuzzy-ensemble methods to make better hazard maps. All of the hazard maps were validated by comparison with known subsidence areas that were not used directly in the analysis. As the result, the ensemble model was found to be more effective in terms of prediction accuracy than the individual model.

Probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis for Cairo, Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan

2016-04-01

Cairo is the capital of Egypt and the largest city in the Arab world and Africa, and the sixteenth largest metropolitan area in the world. It was founded in the tenth century (969 ad) and is 1046 years old. It has long been a center of the region's political and cultural life. Therefore, the earthquake risk assessment for Cairo has a great importance. The present work aims to analysis the earthquake hazard of Cairo as a key input's element for the risk assessment. The regional seismotectonics setting shows that Cairo could be affected by both far- and near-field seismic sources. The seismic hazard of Cairo has been estimated using the probabilistic seismic hazard approach. The logic tree frame work was used during the calculations. Epistemic uncertainties were considered into account by using alternative seismotectonics models and alternative ground motion prediction equations. Seismic hazard values have been estimated within a grid of 0.1° × 0.1 ° spacing for all of Cairo's districts at different spectral periods and four return periods (224, 615, 1230, and 4745 years). Moreover, the uniform hazard spectra have been calculated at the same return periods. The pattern of the contour maps show that the highest values of the peak ground acceleration is concentrated in the eastern zone's districts (e.g., El Nozha) and the lowest values at the northern and western zone's districts (e.g., El Sharabiya and El Khalifa).

TRENDS IN MORTALITY FROM OCCUPATIONAL HAZARDS AMONG MEN IN ENGLAND AND WALES DURING 1979-2010

PubMed Central

Harris, E Clare; Palmer, Keith T; Cox, Vanessa; Darnton, Andrew; Osman, John; Coggon, David

2016-01-01

Objectives To monitor the impact of health and safety provisions and inform future preventive strategies, we investigated trends in mortality from established occupational hazards in England and Wales. Methods We analysed data from death certificates on underlying cause of death and last full-time occupation for 3,688,916 deaths among men aged 20-74 years in England and Wales during 1979-2010 (excluding 1981 when records were incomplete). Proportional mortality ratios (PMRs), standardised for age and social class, were calculated for occupations at risk of specified hazards. Observed and expected numbers of deaths for each hazard were summed across occupations, and the differences summarised as average annual excesses. Results Excess mortality declined substantially for most hazards. For example, the annual excess of deaths from chronic bronchitis and emphysema fell from 170.7 during 1979-90 to 36.0 in 2001-10, and that for deaths from injury and poisoning from 237.0 to 87.5. In many cases the improvements were associated with falling PMRs (suggesting safer working practices), but they also reflected reductions in the numbers of men employed in more hazardous jobs, and declining mortality from some diseases across the whole population. Notable exceptions to the general improvement were diseases caused by asbestos, especially in some construction trades and sinonasal cancer in woodworkers. Conclusions The highest priority for future prevention of work-related fatalities is the minority of occupational disorders for which excess mortality remains static or is increasing, in particular asbestos-related disease among certain occupations in the construction industry and sinonasal cancer in woodworkers. PMID:26976946

Evaluation of Horizontal Seismic Hazard of Shahrekord, Iran

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Amiri, G. Ghodrati; Dehkordi, M. Raeisi; Amrei, S. A. Razavian

2008-07-08

This paper presents probabilistic horizontal seismic hazard assessment of Shahrekord, Iran. It displays the probabilistic estimate of Peak Ground Horizontal Acceleration (PGHA) for the return period of 75, 225, 475 and 2475 years. The output of the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is based on peak ground acceleration (PGA), which is the most common criterion in designing of buildings. A catalogue of seismic events that includes both historical and instrumental events was developed and covers the period from 840 to 2007. The seismic sources that affect the hazard in Shahrekord were identified within the radius of 150 km and the recurrencemore » relationships of these sources were generated. Finally four maps have been prepared to indicate the earthquake hazard of Shahrekord in the form of iso-acceleration contour lines for different hazard levels by using SEISRISK III software.« less

A 10-Year Retrospective Review of a Nonrandomized Cohort of 458 Patients Undergoing Radical Radiotherapy or Cystectomy in Yorkshire, UK

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Munro, Nicholas P., E-mail: nic@munron.plus.co; Sundaram, Subramnian K.; Weston, Philip

2010-05-01

Purpose: We have previously reported on the mortality, morbidity, and 5-year survival of 458 patients who underwent radical radiotherapy or surgery for invasive bladder cancer in Yorkshire from 1993 to 1996. We aim to present the 10-year outcomes of these patients and to reassess factors predicting survival. Methods and Materials: The Northern and Yorkshire Cancer Registry identified 458 patients whose cases were subjected to Kaplan-Meier all-cause survival analyses, and a retrospective casenote analysis was undertaken on 398 (87%) for univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards modeling. Additional proportional hazards regression modeling was used to assess the statistical significance of variablesmore » on overall survival. Results: The ratio of radiotherapy to cystectomy was 3:1. There was no significant difference in overall 10-year survival between those who underwent radiotherapy (22%) and radical cystectomy (24%). Univariate analyses suggested that female sex, performance status, hydronephrosis and clinical T stage, were associated with an inferior outcome at 10 years. Patient age, tumor grade, treatment delay, and caseload factors were not significant. Multivariate analysis models were created for 0-2 and 2-10 years after treatment. There were no significant differences in treatment for 0-2 years; however, after 2 years follow-up there was some evidence of increased survival for patients receiving surgery compared with radiotherapy (hazard ratio 0.66, 95% confidence interval: 0.44-1.01, p = 0.06). Conclusions: a 10-year minimum follow-up has rarely been reported after radical treatment for invasive bladder cancer. At 10 years, there was no statistical difference in all-cause survival between surgery and radiotherapy treatment modalities.« less

Publications of the Volcano Hazards Program 2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nathenson, Manuel

2012-01-01

The Volcano Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is part of the Geologic Hazards Assessments subactivity as funded by Congressional appropriation. Investigations are carried out in the USGS and with cooperators at the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, University of Hawaii Manoa and Hilo, University of Utah, and University of Washington Geophysics Program. This report lists publications from all these institutions. Only published papers and maps are included here; numerous abstracts presented at scientific meetings are omitted. Publication dates are based on year of issue, with no attempt to assign them to fiscal year.

Publications of the Volcano Hazards Program 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nathenson, Manuel

2013-01-01

The Volcano Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is part of the Geologic Hazards Assessments subactivity, as funded by Congressional appropriation. Investigations are carried out by the USGS and with cooperators at the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, University of Hawaii Manoa and Hilo, University of Utah, and University of Washington Geophysics Program. This report lists publications from all these institutions. Only published papers and maps are included here; abstracts presented at scientific meetings are omitted. Publication dates are based on year of issue, with no attempt to assign them to fiscal year.

Publications of the Volcano Hazards Program 2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nathenson, Manuel

2014-01-01

The Volcano Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is part of the Geologic Hazards Assessments subactivity, as funded by Congressional appropriation. Investigations are carried out by the USGS and with cooperators at the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, University of Hawaii Manoa and Hilo, University of Utah, and University of Washington Geophysics Program. This report lists publications from all of these institutions. Only published papers and maps are included here; abstracts presented at scientific meetings are omitted. Publication dates are based on year of issue, with no attempt to assign them to a fiscal year.

Publications of the Volcano Hazards Program 2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nathenson, Manuel

2011-01-01

The Volcano Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is part of the Geologic Hazards Assessments subactivity as funded by congressional appropriation. Investigations are carried out in the USGS and with cooperators at the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, University of Hawaii Manoa and Hilo, University of Utah, and University of Washington Geophysics Program. This report lists publications from all these institutions. Only published papers and maps are included here; numerous abstracts presented at scientific meetings are omitted. Publications dates are based on year of issue, with no attempt to assign them to fiscal year.

An Analysis of Cumulative Risks Indicated by Biomonitoring Data of Six Phthalates Using the Maximum Cumulative Ratio

EPA Science Inventory

The Maximum Cumulative Ratio (MCR) quantifies the degree to which a single component of a chemical mixture drives the cumulative risk of a receptor.1 This study used the MCR, the Hazard Index (HI) and Hazard Quotient (HQ) to evaluate co-exposures to six phthalates using biomonito...

Modeling lahar behavior and hazards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Manville, Vernon; Major, Jon J.; Fagents, Sarah A.

2013-01-01

Lahars are highly mobile mixtures of water and sediment of volcanic origin that are capable of traveling tens to > 100 km at speeds exceeding tens of km hr-1. Such flows are among the most serious ground-based hazards at many volcanoes because of their sudden onset, rapid advance rates, long runout distances, high energy, ability to transport large volumes of material, and tendency to flow along existing river channels where populations and infrastructure are commonly concentrated. They can grow in volume and peak discharge through erosion and incorporation of external sediment and/or water, inundate broad areas, and leave deposits many meters thick. Furthermore, lahars can recur for many years to decades after an initial volcanic eruption, as fresh pyroclastic material is eroded and redeposited during rainfall events, resulting in a spatially and temporally evolving hazard. Improving understanding of the behavior of these complex, gravitationally driven, multi-phase flows is key to mitigating the threat to communities at lahar-prone volcanoes. However, their complexity and evolving nature pose significant challenges to developing the models of flow behavior required for delineating their hazards and hazard zones.

Proton pump inhibitors and risk of 1-year mortality and rehospitalization in older patients discharged from acute care hospitals.

PubMed

Maggio, Marcello; Corsonello, Andrea; Ceda, Gian Paolo; Cattabiani, Chiara; Lauretani, Fulvio; Buttò, Valeria; Ferrucci, Luigi; Bandinelli, Stefania; Abbatecola, Angela Marie; Spazzafumo, Liana; Lattanzio, Fabrizia

2013-04-08

The use of proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) has rapidly increased during the past several years. However, concern remains about risks associated with their long-term use in older populations. To investigate the relationship between the use of PPIs and the risk of death or the combined end point of death or rehospitalization in older patients discharged from acute care hospitals. We investigated the relationship between PPI use and study outcomes using time-dependent Cox proportional hazards regression in patients 65 years or older discharged from acute care medical wards from April 1 to June 30, 2007. Eleven acute care medical wards. Four hundred ninety-one patients (mean [SD] age, 80.0 [5.9] years). Mortality and the combined end point of death or rehospitalization. RESULTS The use of PPIs was independently associated with mortality (hazard ratio, 1.51 [95% CI, 1.03-2.77]) but not with the combined end point (1.49 [0.98-2.17]). An increased risk of mortality was observed among patients exposed to high-dose PPIs vs none (hazard ratio, 2.59 [95% CI, 1.22-7.16]). In older patients discharged from acute care hospitals, the use of high-dose PPIs is associated with increased 1-year mortality. Randomized controlled studies including older frail patients are needed. In the meantime, physicians need to use caution and balance benefits and harms in long-term prescription of high-dose PPIs.

The prevalence of lead-based paint hazards in U.S. housing.

PubMed Central

Jacobs, David E; Clickner, Robert P; Zhou, Joey Y; Viet, Susan M; Marker, David A; Rogers, John W; Zeldin, Darryl C; Broene, Pamela; Friedman, Warren

2002-01-01

In this study we estimated the number of housing units in the United States with lead-based paint and lead-based paint hazards. We included measurements of lead in intact and deteriorated paint, interior dust, and bare soil. A nationally representative, random sample of 831 housing units was evaluated in a survey between 1998 and 2000; the units and their occupants did not differ significantly from nationwide characteristics. Results indicate that 38 million housing units had lead-based paint, down from the 1990 estimate of 64 million. Twenty-four million had significant lead-based paint hazards. Of those with hazards, 1.2 million units housed low-income families (< 30,000 US dollars/year) with children under 6 years of age. Although 17% of government-supported, low-income housing had hazards, 35% of all low-income housing had hazards. For households with incomes greater than or equal to 30,000 US dollars/year, 19% had hazards. Fourteen percent of all houses had significantly deteriorated lead-based paint, and 16% and 7%, respectively, had dust lead and soil lead levels above current standards of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The prevalence of lead-based paint and hazards increases with age of housing, but most painted surfaces, even in older housing, do not have lead-based paint. Between 2% and 25% of painted building components were coated with lead-based paint. Housing in the Northeast and Midwest had about twice the prevalence of hazards compared with housing in the South and West. The greatest risk occurs in older units with lead-based paint hazards that either will be or are currently occupied by families with children under 6 years of age and are low-income and/or are undergoing renovation or maintenance that disturbs lead-based paint. This study also confirms projections made in 2000 by the President's Task Force on Environmental Health Risks and Safety Risks to Children of the number of

Treatment of hazardous waste landfill leachate using Fenton oxidation process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singa, Pradeep Kumar; Hasnain Isa, Mohamed; Ho, Yeek-Chia; Lim, Jun-Wei

2018-03-01

The efficiency of Fenton's oxidation was assessed in this study for hazardous waste landfill leachate treatment. The two major reagents, which are generally employed in Fenton's process are H2O2 as oxidizing agent and Fe2+ as catalyst. Batch experiments were conducted to determine the effect of experimental conditions viz., reaction time, molar ratio, and Fenton reagent dosages, which are significant parameters that influence the degradation efficiencies of Fenton process were examined. It was found that under the favorable experimental conditions, maximum COD removal was 56.49%. The optimum experimental conditions were pH=3, H2O2/Fe2+ molar ratio = 3 and reaction time = 150 minutes. The optimal amount of hydrogen peroxide and iron were 0.12 mol/L and 0.04 mol/L respectively. High dosages of H2O2 and iron resulted in scavenging effects on OH• radicals and lowered degradation efficiency of organic compounds in the hazardous waste landfill leachate.

Natural Hazards Science at the U.S. Geological Survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, Suzanne C.; Jones, Lucile M.; Holmes, Robert R.

2013-01-01

The mission of the USGS in natural hazards is to develop and apply hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The costs and consequences of natural hazards can be enormous, and each year more people and infrastructure are at risk. The USGS conducts hazard research and works closely with stakeholders and cooperators to inform a broad range of planning and response activities at individual, local, State, national, and international levels. It has critical statutory and nonstatutory roles regarding floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, coastal erosion, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, and magnetic storms. USGS science can help to understand and reduce risks from natural hazards by providing the information that decisionmakers need to determine which risk management activities are worth­while.

Assessing qualitative long-term volcanic hazards at Lanzarote Island (Canary Islands)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becerril, Laura; Martí, Joan; Bartolini, Stefania; Geyer, Adelina

2017-07-01

Conducting long-term hazard assessment in active volcanic areas is of primary importance for land-use planning and defining emergency plans able to be applied in case of a crisis. A definition of scenario hazard maps helps to mitigate the consequences of future eruptions by anticipating the events that may occur. Lanzarote is an active volcanic island that has hosted the largest (> 1.5 km3 DRE) and longest (6 years) eruption, the Timanfaya eruption (1730-1736), on the Canary Islands in historical times (last 600 years). This eruption brought severe economic losses and forced local people to migrate. In spite of all these facts, no comprehensive hazard assessment or hazard maps have been developed for the island. In this work, we present an integrated long-term volcanic hazard evaluation using a systematic methodology that includes spatial analysis and simulations of the most probable eruptive scenarios.

Ability of exercise testing to predict cardiovascular and all-cause death in asymptomatic women: a 20-year follow-up of the lipid research clinics prevalence study.

PubMed

Mora, Samia; Redberg, Rita F; Cui, Yadong; Whiteman, Maura K; Flaws, Jodi A; Sharrett, A Richey; Blumenthal, Roger S

2003-09-24

The value of exercise testing in women has been questioned. To determine the prognostic value of exercise testing in a population-based cohort of asymptomatic women followed up for 20 years. Near-maximal Bruce-protocol treadmill test data from the Lipid Research Clinics Prevalence Study (1972-1976) with follow-up through 1995. A total of 2994 asymptomatic North American women, aged 30 to 80 years, without known cardiovascular disease. Cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. There were 427 (14%) deaths during 20 years of follow-up, of which 147 were due to cardiovascular causes. Low exercise capacity, low heart rate recovery (HRR), and not achieving target heart rate were independently associated with increased all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. There was no increased cardiovascular death risk for exercise-induced ST-segment depression (age-adjusted hazard ratio, 1.02; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.57-1.80; P =.96). The age-adjusted hazard ratio for cardiovascular death for every metabolic equivalent (MET) decrement in exercise capacity was 1.20 (95% CI, 1.18-1.30; P<.001); for every 10 beats per minute decrement in HRR, the hazard ratio was 1.36 (95% CI, 1.19-1.55; P<.001). After adjusting for multiple other risk factors, women who were below the median for both exercise capacity and HRR had a 3.5-fold increased risk of cardiovascular death (95% CI, 1.57-7.86; P =.002) compared with those above the median for both variables. Among women with low risk Framingham scores, those with below median levels of both exercise capacity and HRR had significantly increased risk compared with women who had above median levels of these 2 exercise variables, 44.5 and 3.5 cardiovascular deaths per 10 000 person-years, respectively (hazard ratio for cardiovascular death, 12.93; 95% CI, 5.62-29.73; P<.001). The prognostic value of exercise testing in asymptomatic women derives not from electrocardiographic ischemia but from fitness-related variables.

Prevention of Major Accident Hazards (MAHs) in major Hazard Installation (MHI) premises via land use planning (LUP): a review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khudbiddin, M. Q.; Rashid, Z. A.; Yeong, A. F. M. S.; Alias, A. B.; Irfan, M. F.; Fuad, M.; Hayati, H.

2018-03-01

For a number of years, there is a concern about the causes of major hazards, their identification, risk assessment and the process of its management from the global perspective on the activities of the industries due to the protection of the environment, human and property. Though, industries cannot take pleasure in their business by harming the nature of the land, there are a number of measures that need to be put into consideration by the industries. Such measures are in terms of management and safety for the businesses, lives, properties, as well as the environment. The lack of consideration in the selected appropriate criteria can result in major accidental hazards (MAHs). This paper will review the land use planning (LUP) methods used in the past and present to prevent major accident hazards at major hazard installation (MHI).

Updated Colombian Seismic Hazard Map

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eraso, J.; Arcila, M.; Romero, J.; Dimate, C.; Bermúdez, M. L.; Alvarado, C.

2013-05-01

The Colombian seismic hazard map used by the National Building Code (NSR-98) in effect until 2009 was developed in 1996. Since then, the National Seismological Network of Colombia has improved in both coverage and technology providing fifteen years of additional seismic records. These improvements have allowed a better understanding of the regional geology and tectonics which in addition to the seismic activity in Colombia with destructive effects has motivated the interest and the need to develop a new seismic hazard assessment in this country. Taking advantage of new instrumental information sources such as new broad band stations of the National Seismological Network, new historical seismicity data, standardized global databases availability, and in general, of advances in models and techniques, a new Colombian seismic hazard map was developed. A PSHA model was applied. The use of the PSHA model is because it incorporates the effects of all seismic sources that may affect a particular site solving the uncertainties caused by the parameters and assumptions defined in this kind of studies. First, the seismic sources geometry and a complete and homogeneous seismic catalog were defined; the parameters of seismic rate of each one of the seismic sources occurrence were calculated establishing a national seismotectonic model. Several of attenuation-distance relationships were selected depending on the type of seismicity considered. The seismic hazard was estimated using the CRISIS2007 software created by the Engineering Institute of the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México -UNAM (National Autonomous University of Mexico). A uniformly spaced grid each 0.1° was used to calculate the peak ground acceleration (PGA) and response spectral values at 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.5, 0.75, 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5 and 3.0 seconds with return periods of 75, 225, 475, 975 and 2475 years. For each site, a uniform hazard spectrum and exceedance rate curves were calculated. With the results, it is

Evidence of functional declining and global comorbidity measured at baseline proved to be the strongest predictors for long-term death in elderly community residents aged 85 years: a 5-year follow-up evaluation, the OCTABAIX study

PubMed Central

Formiga, Francesc; Ferrer, Assumpta; Padros, Gloria; Montero, Abelardo; Gimenez-Argente, Carme; Corbella, Xavier

2016-01-01

Objective To investigate the predictive value of functional impairment, chronic conditions, and laboratory biomarkers of aging for predicting 5-year mortality in the elderly aged 85 years. Methods Predictive value for mortality of different geriatric assessments carried out during the OCTABAIX study was evaluated after 5 years of follow-up in 328 subjects aged 85 years. Measurements included assessment of functional status comorbidity, along with laboratory tests on vitamin D, cholesterol, CD4/CD8 ratio, hemoglobin, and serum thyrotropin. Results Overall, the mortality rate after 5 years of follow-up was 42.07%. Bivariate analysis showed that patients who survived were predominantly female (P=0.02), and they showed a significantly better baseline functional status for both basic (P<0.001) and instrumental (P<0.001) activities of daily living (Barthel and Lawton index), better cognitive performance (Spanish version of the Mini-Mental State Examination) (P<0.001), lower comorbidity conditions (Charlson) (P<0.001), lower nutritional risk (Mini Nutritional Assessment) (P<0.001), lower risk of falls (Tinetti gait scale) (P<0.001), less percentage of heart failure (P=0.03) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (P=0.03), and took less chronic prescription drugs (P=0.002) than nonsurvivors. Multivariate Cox regression analysis identified a decreased score in the Lawton index (hazard ratio 0.86, 95% confidence interval: 0.78–0.91) and higher comorbidity conditions (hazard ratio 1.20, 95% confidence interval: 1.08–1.33) as independent predictors of mortality at 5 years in the studied population. Conclusion The ability to perform instrumental activities of daily living and the global comorbidity assessed at baseline were the predictors of death, identified in our 85-year-old community-dwelling subjects after 5 years of follow-up. PMID:27143867

Counterfactual Volcano Hazard Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woo, Gordon

2013-04-01

The historical database of past disasters is a cornerstone of catastrophe risk assessment. Whereas disasters are fortunately comparatively rare, near-misses are quite common for both natural and man-made hazards. The word disaster originally means 'an unfavourable aspect of a star'. Except for astrologists, disasters are no longer perceived fatalistically as pre-determined. Nevertheless, to this day, historical disasters are treated statistically as fixed events, although in reality there is a large luck element involved in converting a near-miss crisis situation into a disaster statistic. It is possible to conceive a stochastic simulation of the past to explore the implications of this chance factor. Counterfactual history is the exercise of hypothesizing alternative paths of history from what actually happened. Exploring history from a counterfactual perspective is instructive for a variety of reasons. First, it is easy to be fooled by randomness and see regularity in event patterns which are illusory. The past is just one realization of a variety of possible evolutions of history, which may be analyzed through a stochastic simulation of an array of counterfactual scenarios. In any hazard context, there is a random component equivalent to dice being rolled to decide whether a near-miss becomes an actual disaster. The fact that there may be no observed disaster over a period of time may belie the occurrence of numerous near-misses. This may be illustrated using the simple dice paradigm. Suppose a dice is rolled every month for a year, and an event is recorded if a six is thrown. There is still an 11% chance of no events occurring during the year. A variety of perils may be used to illustrate the use of near-miss information within a counterfactual disaster analysis. In the domain of natural hazards, near-misses are a notable feature of the threat landscape. Storm surges are an obvious example. Sea defences may protect against most meteorological scenarios. However

Cardiovascular and other causes of death as a function of lifestyle habits in a quasi extinct middle-aged male population. A 50-year follow-up study.

PubMed

Menotti, Alessandro; Puddu, Paolo Emilio; Maiani, Giuseppe; Catasta, Giovina

2016-05-01

To relate major causes of death with lifestyle habits in an almost extinct male middle-aged population. A 40-59 aged male population of 1712 subjects was examined and followed-up for 50 years. Baseline smoking habits, working physical activity and dietary habits were related to 50 years mortality subdivided into 12 simple and 3 composite causes of death by Cox proportional hazard models. Duration of survival was related to the same characteristics by a multiple linear regression model. Death rate in 50 years was of 97.5%. Out of 12 simple groups of causes of death, 6 were related to smoking habits, 3 to physical activity and 4 to dietary habits. Among composite groups of causes of death, hazard ratios (and their 95% confidence limits) of never smokers versus smokers were 0.68 (0.57-0.81) for major cardiovascular diseases; 0.65 (0.52-0.81) for all cancers; and 0.72 (0.64-0.81) for all-cause deaths. Hazard ratios of vigorous physical activity at work versus sedentary physical activity were 0.63 (0.49-0.80) for major cardiovascular diseases; 1.01 (0.72-1.41) for all cancers; and 0.76 (0.64-0.90) for all-cause deaths. Hazard ratios of Mediterranean Diet versus non-Mediterranean Diet were 0.68 (0.54-0.86) for major cardiovascular diseases; 0.54 (0.40-0.73) for all cancers; and 0.67 (0.57-0.78) for all-cause deaths. Expectancy of life was 12 years longer for men with the 3 best behaviors than for those with the 3 worst behaviors. Some lifestyle habits are strongly related to lifetime mortality. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk factors for hazardous events in olfactory-impaired patients.

PubMed

Pence, Taylor S; Reiter, Evan R; DiNardo, Laurence J; Costanzo, Richard M

2014-10-01

Normal olfaction provides essential cues to allow early detection and avoidance of potentially hazardous situations. Thus, patients with impaired olfaction may be at increased risk of experiencing certain hazardous events such as cooking or house fires, delayed detection of gas leaks, and exposure to or ingestion of toxic substances. To identify risk factors and potential trends over time in olfactory-related hazardous events in patients with impaired olfactory function. Retrospective cohort study of 1047 patients presenting to a university smell and taste clinic between 1983 and 2013. A total of 704 patients had both clinical olfactory testing and a hazard interview and were studied. On the basis of olfactory function testing results, patients were categorized as normosmic (n = 161), mildly hyposmic (n = 99), moderately hyposmic (n = 93), severely hyposmic (n = 142), and anosmic (n = 209). Patient evaluation including interview, examination, and olfactory testing. Incidence of specific olfaction-related hazardous events (ie, burning pots and/or pans, starting a fire while cooking, inability to detect gas leaks, inability to detect smoke, and ingestion of toxic substances or spoiled foods) by degree of olfactory impairment. The incidence of having experienced any hazardous event progressively increased with degree of impairment: normosmic (18.0%), mildly hyposmic (22.2%), moderately hyposmic (31.2%), severely hyposmic (32.4%), and anosmic (39.2%). Over 3 decades there was no significant change in the overall incidence of hazardous events. Analysis of demographic data (age, sex, race, smoking status, and etiology) revealed significant differences in the incidence of hazardous events based on age (among 397 patients <65 years, 148 [37.3%] with hazardous event, vs 31 of 146 patients ≥65 years [21.3%]; P < .001), sex (among 278 women, 106 [38.1%] with hazardous event, vs 73 of 265 men [27.6%]; P = .009), and race (among 98 African

Association of triglyceride-to-high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio to cardiorespiratory fitness in men.

PubMed

Vega, Gloria Lena; Grundy, Scott M; Barlow, Carolyn E; Leonard, David; Willis, Benjamin L; DeFina, Laura F; Farrell, Stephen W

Both triglyceride-to-high density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL-C) and cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) impart risk for all-cause morbidity and mortality independently of conventional risk factors. To determine prevalence and/or incidence of high TG/HDL-C ratio in men with low CRF. Clinical characteristics and CRF were used to determine prevalence of a TG/HDL-C ratio ≥ 3.5 (high ratio) in 13,954 men of the Cooper Center Longitudinal Study. High-ratio conversion was determined in 10,424 men with normal baseline TG/HDL-C ratio. Hazard ratio (HR) of incident high TG/HDL-C was adjusted for age and waist girth. Men with low CRF had the highest prevalence of a high TG/HDL-C ratio. In the population with normal TG/HDL-C, age-adjusted HR of incident high TG/HDL-C ratio was 2.77 times higher in men with lowest CRF than in those with highest CRF. Incidence of conversion of normal to high ratio was 5.5% per year in low CRF population, compared with 1.7% in high CRF subjects. Incidence HR was independent of waist girth. Men who converted from normal to high TG/HDL-C ratio during the follow-up period had increased number of metabolic risk factors and a higher prevalence of metabolic syndrome. Men who did not convert to a high TG/HDL-C ratio retained a low prevalence of metabolic syndrome risk factors. A high TG/HDL-C ratio is common in men with low CRF. Metabolic syndrome also is common among those with a high ratio. Copyright © 2016 National Lipid Association. All rights reserved.

Quality-of-life-adjusted hazard of death: a formulation of the quality-adjusted life-years model of use in benefit-risk assessment.

PubMed

Garcia-Hernandez, Alberto

2014-03-01

Although the quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) model is standard in health technology assessment, quantitative methods are less frequent but increasingly used for benefit-risk assessment (BRA) at earlier stages of drug development. A frequent challenge when implementing metrics for BRA is to weigh the importance of effects on a chronic condition against the risk of severe events during the trial. The lifetime component of the QALY model has a counterpart in the BRA context, namely, the risk of dying during the study. A new concept is presented, the hazard of death function that a subject is willing to accept instead of the baseline hazard to improve his or her chronic health status, which we have called the quality-of-life-adjusted hazard of death. It has been proven that if assumptions of the linear QALY model hold, the excess mortality rate tolerated by a subject for a chronic health improvement is inversely proportional to the mean residual life. This result leads to a new representation of the linear QALY model in terms of hazard rate functions and allows utilities obtained by using standard methods involving trade-offs of life duration to be translated into thresholds of tolerated mortality risk during a short period of time, thereby avoiding direct trade-offs using small probabilities of events during the study, which is known to lead to bias and variability. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Augmented Reality Cues and Elderly Driver Hazard Perception

PubMed Central

Schall, Mark C.; Rusch, Michelle L.; Lee, John D.; Dawson, Jeffrey D.; Thomas, Geb; Aksan, Nazan; Rizzo, Matthew

2013-01-01

Objective Evaluate the effectiveness of augmented reality (AR) cues in improving driving safety in elderly drivers who are at increased crash risk due to cognitive impairments. Background Cognitively challenging driving environments pose a particular crash risk for elderly drivers. AR cueing is a promising technology to mitigate risk by directing driver attention to roadway hazards. This study investigates whether AR cues improve or interfere with hazard perception in elderly drivers with age-related cognitive decline. Methods Twenty elderly (Mean= 73 years, SD= 5 years), licensed drivers with a range of cognitive abilities measured by a speed of processing (SOP) composite participated in a one-hour drive in an interactive, fixed-base driving simulator. Each participant drove through six, straight, six-mile-long rural roadway scenarios following a lead vehicle. AR cues directed attention to potential roadside hazards in three of the scenarios, and the other three were uncued (baseline) drives. Effects of AR cueing were evaluated with respect to: 1) detection of hazardous target objects, 2) interference with detecting nonhazardous secondary objects, and 3) impairment in maintaining safe distance behind a lead vehicle. Results AR cueing improved the detection of hazardous target objects of low visibility. AR cues did not interfere with detection of nonhazardous secondary objects and did not impair ability to maintain safe distance behind a lead vehicle. SOP capacity did not moderate those effects. Conclusion AR cues show promise for improving elderly driver safety by increasing hazard detection likelihood without interfering with other driving tasks such as maintaining safe headway. PMID:23829037

Landslide hazard mapping with selected dominant factors: A study case of Penang Island, Malaysia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tay, Lea Tien; Alkhasawneh, Mutasem Sh.; Ngah, Umi Kalthum

Landslide is one of the destructive natural geohazards in Malaysia. In addition to rainfall as triggering factos for landslide in Malaysia, topographical and geological factors play important role in the landslide susceptibility analysis. Conventional topographic factors such as elevation, slope angle, slope aspect, plan curvature and profile curvature have been considered as landslide causative factors in many research works. However, other topographic factors such as diagonal length, surface area, surface roughness and rugosity have not been considered, especially for the research work in landslide hazard analysis in Malaysia. This paper presents landslide hazard mapping using Frequency Ratio (FR) and themore » study area is Penang Island of Malaysia. Frequency ratio approach is a variant of probabilistic method that is based on the observed relationships between the distribution of landslides and each landslide-causative factor. Landslide hazard map of Penang Island is produced by considering twenty-two (22) landslide causative factors. Among these twenty-two (22) factors, fourteen (14) factors are topographic factors. They are elevation, slope gradient, slope aspect, plan curvature, profile curvature, general curvature, tangential curvature, longitudinal curvature, cross section curvature, total curvature, diagonal length, surface area, surface roughness and rugosity. These topographic factors are extracted from the digital elevation model of Penang Island. The other eight (8) non-topographic factors considered are land cover, vegetation cover, distance from road, distance from stream, distance from fault line, geology, soil texture and rainfall precipitation. After considering all twenty-two factors for landslide hazard mapping, the analysis is repeated with fourteen dominant factors which are selected from the twenty-two factors. Landslide hazard map was segregated into four categories of risks, i.e. Highly hazardous area, Hazardous area, Moderately

Hazards and hazard combinations relevant for the safety of nuclear power plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Decker, Kurt; Brinkman, Hans; Raimond, Emmanuel

2017-04-01

The potential of the contemporaneous impact of different, yet causally related, hazardous events and event cascades on nuclear power plants is a major contributor to the overall risk of nuclear installations. In the aftermath of the Fukushima accident, which was caused by a combination of severe ground shaking by an earthquake, an earthquake-triggered tsunami and the disruption of the plants from the electrical grid by a seismically induced landslide, hazard combinations and hazard cascades moved into the focus of nuclear safety research. We therefore developed an exhaustive list of external hazards and hazard combinations which pose potential threats to nuclear installations in the framework of the European project ASAMPSAE (Advanced Safety Assessment: Extended PSA). The project gathers 31 partners from Europe, North Amerika and Japan. The list comprises of exhaustive lists of natural hazards, external man-made hazards, and a cross-correlation matrix of these hazards. The hazard list is regarded comprehensive by including all types of hazards that were previously cited in documents by IAEA, the Western European Nuclear Regulators Association (WENRA), and others. 73 natural hazards and 24 man-made external hazards are included. Natural hazards are grouped into seismotectonic hazards, flooding and hydrological hazards, extreme values of meteorological phenomena, rare meteorological phenomena, biological hazards / infestation, geological hazards, and forest fire / wild fire. The list of external man-made hazards includes industry accidents, military accidents, transportation accidents, pipeline accidents and other man-made external events. The large number of different hazards results in the extremely large number of 5.151 theoretically possible hazard combinations (not considering hazard cascades). In principle all of these combinations are possible to occur by random coincidence except for 82 hazard combinations that - depending on the time scale - are mutually

Success in transmitting hazard science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, J. G.; Garside, T.

2010-12-01

Money motivates mitigation. An example of success in communicating scientific information about hazards, coupled with information about available money, is the follow-up action by local governments to actually mitigate. The Nevada Hazard Mitigation Planning Committee helps local governments prepare competitive proposals for federal funds to reduce risks from natural hazards. Composed of volunteers with expertise in emergency management, building standards, and earthquake, flood, and wildfire hazards, the committee advises the Nevada Division of Emergency Management on (1) the content of the State’s hazard mitigation plan and (2) projects that have been proposed by local governments and state agencies for funding from various post- and pre-disaster hazard mitigation programs of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Local governments must have FEMA-approved hazard mitigation plans in place before they can receive this funding. The committee has been meeting quarterly with elected and appointed county officials, at their offices, to encourage them to update their mitigation plans and apply for this funding. We have settled on a format that includes the county’s giving the committee an overview of its infrastructure, hazards, and preparedness. The committee explains the process for applying for mitigation grants and presents the latest information that we have about earthquake hazards, including locations of nearby active faults, historical seismicity, geodetic strain, loss-estimation modeling, scenarios, and documents about what to do before, during, and after an earthquake. Much of the county-specific information is available on the web. The presentations have been well received, in part because the committee makes the effort to go to their communities, and in part because the committee is helping them attract federal funds for local mitigation of not only earthquake hazards but also floods (including canal breaches) and wildfires, the other major concerns in

Robust inference in discrete hazard models for randomized clinical trials.

PubMed

Nguyen, Vinh Q; Gillen, Daniel L

2012-10-01

Time-to-event data in which failures are only assessed at discrete time points are common in many clinical trials. Examples include oncology studies where events are observed through periodic screenings such as radiographic scans. When the survival endpoint is acknowledged to be discrete, common methods for the analysis of observed failure times include the discrete hazard models (e.g., the discrete-time proportional hazards and the continuation ratio model) and the proportional odds model. In this manuscript, we consider estimation of a marginal treatment effect in discrete hazard models where the constant treatment effect assumption is violated. We demonstrate that the estimator resulting from these discrete hazard models is consistent for a parameter that depends on the underlying censoring distribution. An estimator that removes the dependence on the censoring mechanism is proposed and its asymptotic distribution is derived. Basing inference on the proposed estimator allows for statistical inference that is scientifically meaningful and reproducible. Simulation is used to assess the performance of the presented methodology in finite samples.

CD4/CD8 ratio, age, and risk of serious non-communicable diseases in HIV-infected adults on antiretroviral therapy

PubMed Central

CASTILHO, Jessica L.; SHEPHERD, Bryan E.; KOETHE, John; TURNER, Megan; BEBAWY, Sally; LOGAN, James; ROGERS, William B.; RAFFANTI, Stephen; STERLING, Timothy R.

2015-01-01

Objective In virologically suppressed HIV-infected adults, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have been associated with immune senescence and low CD4/CD8 lymphocyte ratio. Age differences in the relationship between CD4/CD8 ratio and NCDs have not been described. Design Observational cohort study. Methods We assessed CD4/CD8 ratio and incident NCDs (cardiovascular, cancer, liver, and renal diseases) in HIV-infected adults started on antiretroviral therapy between 1998–2012. Study inclusion began once patients maintained virologic suppression for 12 months (defined as baseline). We examined age and baseline CD4/CD8 ratio and used Cox proportional hazard models to assess baseline CD4/CD8 ratio and NCDs. Results This study included 2,006 patients. Low baseline CD4/CD8 ratio was associated with older age, male sex, and low CD4 lymphocyte counts. In models adjusting for CD4 lymphocyte count, CD4/CD8 ratio was inversely associated with age (p <0.01). Among all patients, 182 had incident NCDs, including 46 with coronary artery disease (CAD) events. CD4/CD8 ratio was inversely associated with risk of CAD events (adjusted HR per 0.1 increase in CD4/CD8 ratio = 0.87, 95% CI: 0.76–0.99, p=0.03). This association was driven by those under age 50 years (adjusted HR 0.83 [0.70–0.97], p = 0.02) versus those over age 50 years (adjusted HR = 0.96 [0.79–1.18], p = 0.71). CD4/CD8 ratio was not significantly associated with incident non-cardiac NCDs. Conclusions Higher CD4/CD8 ratio after one year of HIV virologic suppression was independently predictive of decreased CAD risk, particularly among younger adults. Advanced immune senescence may contribute to CAD events in younger HIV patients on antiretroviral therapy. PMID:26959354

The spatiotemporal characteristics of environmental hazards caused by offshore oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico.

PubMed

Meng, Qingmin

2016-09-15

Marine ecosystems are home to a host of numerous species ranging from tiny planktonic organisms, fishes, and birds, to large mammals such as the whales, manatees, and seals. However, human activities such as offshore oil and gas operations increasingly threaten marine and coastal ecosystems, for which there has been little exploration into the spatial and temporal risks of offshore oil operations. Using the Gulf of Mexico, one of the world's hottest spots of offshore oil and gas mining, as the study area, we propose a spatiotemporal approach that integrates spatial statistics and geostatistics in a geographic information system environment to provide insight to environmental management and decision making for oil and gas operators, coastal communities, local governments, and the federal government. We use the records from 1995 to 2015 of twelve types of hazards caused by offshore oil and gas operations, and analyze them spatially over a five year period. The spatial clusters of these hazards are analyzed and mapped using Getis-Ord Gi and local Moran's I statistics. We then design a spatial correlation coefficient matrix for multivariate spatial correlation, which is the ratio of the cross variogram of two types of hazards to the product of the variograms of the two hazards, showing a primary understanding of the degrees of spatial correlation among the twelve types hazards. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first application of spatiotemporal analysis methods to environmental hazards caused by offshore oil and gas operations; the proposed methods can be applied to other regions for the management and monitoring of environmental hazards caused by offshore oil operations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hazard proximities of childhood cancers in Great Britain from 1953-80.

PubMed Central

Knox, E G; Gilman, E A

1997-01-01

STUDY OBJECTIVES: Firstly, to examine relationships between the birth and death addresses of children dying from leukaemia and cancer in Great Britain, and the sites of potential environmental hazards; and secondly to measure relative case densities close to, and at increasing distances from, different hazard types. DESIGN: Home address postcodes (PCs) and their map coordinates were identified at birth and at death in children who died from leukaemia or cancer. Potentially hazardous industrial addresses and PCs were listed from business and other directories, and map coordinates obtained from the Central Postcode Directory or else located directly on Ordnance Survey (OS) maps. Railway lines and motorways were digitised from OS maps. Numbers of deaths (and births) at successive radial distances from these hazards were counted and compared with expected numbers. The latter were based on a count of all PCs at similar distances. Relative case density ratios at successive distances from the hazards were obtained from observed and expected numbers, aggregated over similar sites. This was repeated for different hazard types and results were tested for evidence of systematic centrifugal case density gradients. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: All 22,458 children dying from leukaemia or cancer aged 0-15 years, in England, Wales, and Scotland, between 1953 and 1980. MAIN RESULTS: Relative excesses of leukaemias and of solid cancers were found near the following: (1) oil refineries, major oil storage installations, railside oil distribution terminals and factories making bitumen products; (2) motor car factories, coach builders, and car body repairers; (3) major users of petroleum products including manufacturers of solvents, paint sprayers, fibreglass fabricators, paint and varnish makers, plastics and detergent manufacturers, and galvanisers; (4) users of kilns and furnaces including steelworks, power stations, galvanisers, cement makers, brickworks, crematoria and aluminium, zinc

Seismic hazard map of the western hemisphere

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shedlock, K.M.; Tanner, J.G.

1999-01-01

Vulnerability to natural disasters increases with urbanization and development of associated support systems (reservoirs, power plants, etc.). Catastrophic earthquakes account for 60% of worldwide casualties associated with natural disasters. Economic damage from earthquakes is increasing, even in technologically advanced countries with some level of seismic zonation, as shown by the 1989 Loma Prieta, CA ($6 billion), 1994 Northridge, CA ($ 25 billion), and 1995 Kobe, Japan (> $ 100 billion) earthquakes. The growth of megacities in seismically active regions around the world often includes the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, due to an insufficient knowledge of existing seismic hazard. Minimization of the loss of life, property damage, and social and economic disruption due to earthquakes depends on reliable estimates of seismic hazard. National, state, and local governments, decision makers, engineers, planners, emergency response organizations, builders, universities, and the general public require seismic hazard estimates for land use planning, improved building design and construction (including adoption of building construction codes), emergency response preparedness plans, economic forecasts, housing and employment decisions, and many more types of risk mitigation. The seismic hazard map of the Americas is the concatenation of various national and regional maps, involving a suite of approaches. The combined maps and documentation provide a useful global seismic hazard framework and serve as a resource for any national or regional agency for further detailed studies applicable to their needs. This seismic hazard map depicts Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years for the western hemisphere. PGA, a short-period ground motion parameter that is proportional to force, is the most commonly mapped ground motion parameter because current building codes that include seismic provisions specify the

The future of hazardous chemical safety in China: Opportunities, problems, challenges and tasks.

PubMed

Wang, Bing; Wu, Chao; Reniers, Genserik; Huang, Lang; Kang, Liangguo; Zhang, Laobing

2018-06-20

China is a major country producing and using hazardous chemicals. Unfortunately, the hazardous chemical industry is still one of the most high-risk industries in China. In recent years, especially after two devastating hazardous chemical accidents, namely "Qingdao 11.2 Crude Oil Leaking and Explosion Accident" and "Tianjin Port 8.12 Fire and Explosion Accident" which occurred in 2013 and 2015 respectively, China has attached great importance to hazardous chemical safety. The period between 2016 and 2017 is a crucial period for the future direction of hazardous chemical safety in China because China released a series of important government documents (such as 'Thirteenth Five-Year (2016-2020) Plan for Hazardous Chemical Safety' and 'Comprehensive Plan for Hazardous Chemical Safety Management (December 2016-November 2019)') to promote hazardous chemical safety in the future. What is the future development of China's hazardous chemical safety? To answer this question, this paper attempts to briefly analyze and introduce the opportunities, problems, challenges and tasks of the future of safety with hazardous chemical industrial activities in China, according to the current situation of hazardous chemical safety in China and using the latest government documents and studies. Obviously, this study can provide useful evidence and suggestions for the future of safety management in the hazardous chemical industry both within China and in other countries. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hazardous workplace review program in Taiwan.

PubMed

Chang, Yi-Kuo; Chuang, Kuen-Yuan; Tseng, Jo-Ming; Lin, Fang-Chen; Su, Teh-Sheng

2013-01-01

In Taiwan, relevant mid-term plans and projects of mitigating occupational hazards have been launched in recent years in the hopes of lowering the incidence of occupational hazards. In light of the lack of objective methodologies for researches on issues pertaining occupational safety and health, this research aims to explore the priorities of safety and health issues through focal groups, expert questionnaires and interviews on relevant issues such as hazard installations identified in R181 Prevention of Major Industrial Accidents Recommendation, 1993 proposed during the 18th World Congress on Safety and Health at work in Seoul 2008. Results revealed that distribute reports of major domestic/foreign occupational disasters to relevant sectors for the prevention of major accidents is needed, both from the importance and feasibility analysis. It is the only topic that scored over 4 points in average for expert and focal group consensus. Furthermore, the experts and focal groups came to consensus in the ranking of priority for 4 items, namely: 1) Installations containing/using large quantities of hazardous materials should be prioritized for inspection, 2) Incorporation of hazard installation review/inspection into OSH management system accreditation, 3) Impose operation shutdown as a means of penalty) and 4) Prioritize the promotion of preliminary PHA.

Numerical modeling on air quality in an urban environment with changes of the aspect ratio and wind direction.

PubMed

Yassin, Mohamed F

2013-06-01

Due to heavy traffic emissions within an urban environment, air quality during the last decade becomes worse year by year and hazard to public health. In the present work, numerical modeling of flow and dispersion of gaseous emissions from vehicle exhaust in a street canyon were investigated under changes of the aspect ratio and wind direction. The three-dimensional flow and dispersion of gaseous pollutants were modeled using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model which was numerically solved using Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations. The diffusion flow field in the atmospheric boundary layer within the street canyon was studied for different aspect ratios (W/H=1/2, 3/4, and 1) and wind directions (θ=90°, 112.5°, 135°, and 157.5°). The numerical models were validated against wind tunnel results to optimize the turbulence model. The numerical results agreed well with the wind tunnel results. The simulation demonstrated that the minimum concentration at the human respiration height within the street canyon was on the windward side for aspect ratios W/H=1/2 and 1 and wind directions θ=112.5°, 135°, and 157.5°. The pollutant concentration level decreases as the wind direction and aspect ratio increase. The wind velocity and turbulence intensity increase as the aspect ratio and wind direction increase.

IARC monographs: 40 years of evaluating carcinogenic hazards to humans.

PubMed

Pearce, Neil; Blair, Aaron; Vineis, Paolo; Ahrens, Wolfgang; Andersen, Aage; Anto, Josep M; Armstrong, Bruce K; Baccarelli, Andrea A; Beland, Frederick A; Berrington, Amy; Bertazzi, Pier Alberto; Birnbaum, Linda S; Brownson, Ross C; Bucher, John R; Cantor, Kenneth P; Cardis, Elisabeth; Cherrie, John W; Christiani, David C; Cocco, Pierluigi; Coggon, David; Comba, Pietro; Demers, Paul A; Dement, John M; Douwes, Jeroen; Eisen, Ellen A; Engel, Lawrence S; Fenske, Richard A; Fleming, Lora E; Fletcher, Tony; Fontham, Elizabeth; Forastiere, Francesco; Frentzel-Beyme, Rainer; Fritschi, Lin; Gerin, Michel; Goldberg, Marcel; Grandjean, Philippe; Grimsrud, Tom K; Gustavsson, Per; Haines, Andy; Hartge, Patricia; Hansen, Johnni; Hauptmann, Michael; Heederik, Dick; Hemminki, Kari; Hemon, Denis; Hertz-Picciotto, Irva; Hoppin, Jane A; Huff, James; Jarvholm, Bengt; Kang, Daehee; Karagas, Margaret R; Kjaerheim, Kristina; Kjuus, Helge; Kogevinas, Manolis; Kriebel, David; Kristensen, Petter; Kromhout, Hans; Laden, Francine; Lebailly, Pierre; LeMasters, Grace; Lubin, Jay H; Lynch, Charles F; Lynge, Elsebeth; 't Mannetje, Andrea; McMichael, Anthony J; McLaughlin, John R; Marrett, Loraine; Martuzzi, Marco; Merchant, James A; Merler, Enzo; Merletti, Franco; Miller, Anthony; Mirer, Franklin E; Monson, Richard; Nordby, Karl-Cristian; Olshan, Andrew F; Parent, Marie-Elise; Perera, Frederica P; Perry, Melissa J; Pesatori, Angela Cecilia; Pirastu, Roberta; Porta, Miquel; Pukkala, Eero; Rice, Carol; Richardson, David B; Ritter, Leonard; Ritz, Beate; Ronckers, Cecile M; Rushton, Lesley; Rusiecki, Jennifer A; Rusyn, Ivan; Samet, Jonathan M; Sandler, Dale P; de Sanjose, Silvia; Schernhammer, Eva; Costantini, Adele Seniori; Seixas, Noah; Shy, Carl; Siemiatycki, Jack; Silverman, Debra T; Simonato, Lorenzo; Smith, Allan H; Smith, Martyn T; Spinelli, John J; Spitz, Margaret R; Stallones, Lorann; Stayner, Leslie T; Steenland, Kyle; Stenzel, Mark; Stewart, Bernard W; Stewart, Patricia A; Symanski, Elaine; Terracini, Benedetto; Tolbert, Paige E; Vainio, Harri; Vena, John; Vermeulen, Roel; Victora, Cesar G; Ward, Elizabeth M; Weinberg, Clarice R; Weisenburger, Dennis; Wesseling, Catharina; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Zahm, Shelia Hoar

2015-06-01

Recently, the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) Programme for the Evaluation of Carcinogenic Risks to Humans has been criticized for several of its evaluations, and also for the approach used to perform these evaluations. Some critics have claimed that failures of IARC Working Groups to recognize study weaknesses and biases of Working Group members have led to inappropriate classification of a number of agents as carcinogenic to humans. The authors of this Commentary are scientists from various disciplines relevant to the identification and hazard evaluation of human carcinogens. We examined criticisms of the IARC classification process to determine the validity of these concerns. Here, we present the results of that examination, review the history of IARC evaluations, and describe how the IARC evaluations are performed. We concluded that these recent criticisms are unconvincing. The procedures employed by IARC to assemble Working Groups of scientists from the various disciplines and the techniques followed to review the literature and perform hazard assessment of various agents provide a balanced evaluation and an appropriate indication of the weight of the evidence. Some disagreement by individual scientists to some evaluations is not evidence of process failure. The review process has been modified over time and will undoubtedly be altered in the future to improve the process. Any process can in theory be improved, and we would support continued review and improvement of the IARC processes. This does not mean, however, that the current procedures are flawed. The IARC Monographs have made, and continue to make, major contributions to the scientific underpinning for societal actions to improve the public's health.

St. Louis Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, Robert A.; Steckel, Phyllis; Schweig, Eugene

2007-01-01

St. Louis has experienced minor earthquake damage at least 12 times in the past 200 years. Because of this history and its proximity to known active earthquake zones, the St. Louis Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project will produce digital maps that show variability of earthquake hazards in the St. Louis area. The maps will be available free via the internet. They can be customized by the user to show specific areas of interest, such as neighborhoods or transportation routes.

77 FR 43002 - Hazardous Waste Management System: Identification and Listing of Hazardous Waste Amendment

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-07-23

... Subjects in 40 CFR Part 261 Environmental protection, Hazardous waste, Recycling, and Reporting and... a maximum annual rate of 200 cubic yards per year must be disposed in a lined Subtitle D landfill... forth in paragraph 1, Phillips 66 can dispose of the processed sludge in a lined Subtitle D landfill...

Sex hormones and the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus: A 9-year follow up among elderly men in Finland.

PubMed

Salminen, Marika; Vahlberg, Tero; Räihä, Ismo; Niskanen, Leo; Kivelä, Sirkka-Liisa; Irjala, Kerttu

2015-05-01

To analyze whether sex hormone levels predict the incidence of type2 diabetes among elderly Finnish men. This was a prospective population-based study, with a 9-year follow up period. The study population in the municipality of Lieto, Finland, consisted of elderly (age ≥64 years) men free of type 2 diabetes at baseline in 1998-1999 (n = 430). Body mass index and cardiovascular disease-adjusted hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals for type 2 diabetes predicted by testosterone, free testosterone, sex hormone-binding globulin, luteinizing hormone, and testosterone/luteinizing hormone were estimated. A total of 30 new cases of type 2 diabetes developed during the follow-up period. After adjustment, only higher levels of testosterone (hazard ratio for one-unit increase 0.93, 95% confidence interval 0.87-0.99, P = 0.020) and free testosterone (hazard ratio for 10-unit increase 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.91-1.00, P = 0.044) were associated with a lower risk of incident type 2 diabetes during the follow up. These associations (0.94, 95% confidence interval 0.87-1.00, P = 0.050 and 0.95, 95% confidence interval 0.90-1.00, P = 0.035, respectively) persisted even after additional adjustment of sex hormone-binding globulin. Higher levels of testosterone and free testosterone independently predicted a reduced risk of type 2 diabetes in the elderly men. © 2014 Japan Geriatrics Society.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps for Ecuador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mariniere, J.; Beauval, C.; Yepes, H. A.; Laurence, A.; Nocquet, J. M.; Alvarado, A. P.; Baize, S.; Aguilar, J.; Singaucho, J. C.; Jomard, H.

2017-12-01

A probabilistic seismic hazard study is led for Ecuador, a country facing a high seismic hazard, both from megathrust subduction earthquakes and shallow crustal moderate to large earthquakes. Building on the knowledge produced in the last years in historical seismicity, earthquake catalogs, active tectonics, geodynamics, and geodesy, several alternative earthquake recurrence models are developed. An area source model is first proposed, based on the seismogenic crustal and inslab sources defined in Yepes et al. (2016). A slightly different segmentation is proposed for the subduction interface, with respect to Yepes et al. (2016). Three earthquake catalogs are used to account for the numerous uncertainties in the modeling of frequency-magnitude distributions. The hazard maps obtained highlight several source zones enclosing fault systems that exhibit low seismic activity, not representative of the geological and/or geodetical slip rates. Consequently, a fault model is derived, including faults with an earthquake recurrence model inferred from geological and/or geodetical slip rate estimates. The geodetical slip rates on the set of simplified faults are estimated from a GPS horizontal velocity field (Nocquet et al. 2014). Assumptions on the aseismic component of the deformation are required. Combining these alternative earthquake models in a logic tree, and using a set of selected ground-motion prediction equations adapted to Ecuador's different tectonic contexts, a mean hazard map is obtained. Hazard maps corresponding to the percentiles 16 and 84% are also derived, highlighting the zones where uncertainties on the hazard are highest.

Transportation of Hazardous Evidentiary Material.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Osborn, Douglas.

2005-06-01

This document describes the specimen and transportation containers currently available for use with hazardous and infectious materials. A detailed comparison of advantages, disadvantages, and costs of the different technologies is included. Short- and long-term recommendations are also provided.3 DraftDraftDraftExecutive SummaryThe Federal Bureau of Investigation's Hazardous Materials Response Unit currently has hazardous material transport containers for shipping 1-quart paint cans and small amounts of contaminated forensic evidence, but the containers may not be able to maintain their integrity under accident conditions or for some types of hazardous materials. This report provides guidance and recommendations on the availability of packages for themore » safe and secure transport of evidence consisting of or contaminated with hazardous chemicals or infectious materials. Only non-bulk containers were considered because these are appropriate for transport on small aircraft. This report will addresses packaging and transportation concerns for Hazardous Classes 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, and 9 materials. If the evidence is known or suspected of belonging to one of these Hazardous Classes, it must be packaged in accordance with the provisions of 49 CFR Part 173. The anthrax scare of several years ago, and less well publicized incidents involving unknown and uncharacterized substances, has required that suspicious substances be sent to appropriate analytical laboratories for analysis and characterization. Transportation of potentially hazardous or infectious material to an appropriate analytical laboratory requires transport containers that maintain both the biological and chemical integrity of the substance in question. As a rule, only relatively small quantities will be available for analysis. Appropriate transportation packaging is needed that will maintain the integrity of the substance, will not allow biological alteration, will not react chemically with the substance

Multi scenario seismic hazard assessment for Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mostafa, Shaimaa Ismail; Abd el-aal, Abd el-aziz Khairy; El-Eraki, Mohamed Ahmed

2018-01-01

Egypt is located in the northeastern corner of Africa within a sensitive seismotectonic location. Earthquakes are concentrated along the active tectonic boundaries of African, Eurasian, and Arabian plates. The study area is characterized by northward increasing sediment thickness leading to more damage to structures in the north due to multiple reflections of seismic waves. Unfortunately, man-made constructions in Egypt were not designed to resist earthquake ground motions. So, it is important to evaluate the seismic hazard to reduce social and economic losses and preserve lives. The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is used to evaluate the hazard using alternative seismotectonic models within a logic tree framework. Alternate seismotectonic models, magnitude-frequency relations, and various indigenous attenuation relationships were amended within a logic tree formulation to compute and develop the regional exposure on a set of hazard maps. Hazard contour maps are constructed for peak ground acceleration as well as 0.1-, 0.2-, 0.5-, 1-, and 2-s spectral periods for 100 and 475 years return periods for ground motion on rock. The results illustrate that Egypt is characterized by very low to high seismic activity grading from the west to the eastern part of the country. The uniform hazard spectra are estimated at some important cities distributed allover Egypt. The deaggregation of seismic hazard is estimated at some cities to identify the scenario events that contribute to a selected seismic hazard level. The results of this study can be used in seismic microzonation, risk mitigation, and earthquake engineering purposes.

Multi scenario seismic hazard assessment for Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mostafa, Shaimaa Ismail; Abd el-aal, Abd el-aziz Khairy; El-Eraki, Mohamed Ahmed

2018-05-01

Egypt is located in the northeastern corner of Africa within a sensitive seismotectonic location. Earthquakes are concentrated along the active tectonic boundaries of African, Eurasian, and Arabian plates. The study area is characterized by northward increasing sediment thickness leading to more damage to structures in the north due to multiple reflections of seismic waves. Unfortunately, man-made constructions in Egypt were not designed to resist earthquake ground motions. So, it is important to evaluate the seismic hazard to reduce social and economic losses and preserve lives. The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is used to evaluate the hazard using alternative seismotectonic models within a logic tree framework. Alternate seismotectonic models, magnitude-frequency relations, and various indigenous attenuation relationships were amended within a logic tree formulation to compute and develop the regional exposure on a set of hazard maps. Hazard contour maps are constructed for peak ground acceleration as well as 0.1-, 0.2-, 0.5-, 1-, and 2-s spectral periods for 100 and 475 years return periods for ground motion on rock. The results illustrate that Egypt is characterized by very low to high seismic activity grading from the west to the eastern part of the country. The uniform hazard spectra are estimated at some important cities distributed allover Egypt. The deaggregation of seismic hazard is estimated at some cities to identify the scenario events that contribute to a selected seismic hazard level. The results of this study can be used in seismic microzonation, risk mitigation, and earthquake engineering purposes.

Identification of Potential Hazard using Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sari, R. M.; Syahputri, K.; Rizkya, I.; Siregar, I.

2017-03-01

This research was conducted in the paper production’s company. These Paper products will be used as a cigarette paper. Along in the production’s process, Company provides the machines and equipment that operated by workers. During the operations, all workers may potentially injured. It known as a potential hazard. Hazard identification and risk assessment is one part of a safety and health program in the stage of risk management. This is very important as part of efforts to prevent occupational injuries and diseases resulting from work. This research is experiencing a problem that is not the identification of potential hazards and risks that would be faced by workers during the running production process. The purpose of this study was to identify the potential hazards by using hazard identification and risk assessment methods. Risk assessment is done using severity criteria and the probability of an accident. According to the research there are 23 potential hazard that occurs with varying severity and probability. Then made the determination Risk Assessment Code (RAC) for each potential hazard, and gained 3 extreme risks, 10 high risks, 6 medium risks and 3 low risks. We have successfully identified potential hazard using RAC.

Seismic hazard assessment of the Province of Murcia (SE Spain): analysis of source contribution to hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Mayordomo, J.; Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.; Benito, B.

2007-10-01

A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the Province of Murcia in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral accelerations [SA( T)] is presented in this paper. In contrast to most of the previous studies in the region, which were performed for PGA making use of intensity-to-PGA relationships, hazard is here calculated in terms of magnitude and using European spectral ground-motion models. Moreover, we have considered the most important faults in the region as specific seismic sources, and also comprehensively reviewed the earthquake catalogue. Hazard calculations are performed following the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) methodology using a logic tree, which accounts for three different seismic source zonings and three different ground-motion models. Hazard maps in terms of PGA and SA(0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 s) and coefficient of variation (COV) for the 475-year return period are shown. Subsequent analysis is focused on three sites of the province, namely, the cities of Murcia, Lorca and Cartagena, which are important industrial and tourism centres. Results at these sites have been analysed to evaluate the influence of the different input options. The most important factor affecting the results is the choice of the attenuation relationship, whereas the influence of the selected seismic source zonings appears strongly site dependant. Finally, we have performed an analysis of source contribution to hazard at each of these cities to provide preliminary guidance in devising specific risk scenarios. We have found that local source zones control the hazard for PGA and SA( T ≤ 1.0 s), although contribution from specific fault sources and long-distance north Algerian sources becomes significant from SA(0.5 s) onwards.

High variable mixture ratio oxygen/hydrogen engine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Erickson, C. M.; Tu, W. H.; Weiss, A. H.

1988-01-01

The ability of an O2/H2 engine to operate over a range of high-propellant mixture ratios was previously shown to be advantageous in single stage to orbit (SSTO) vehicles. The results are presented for the analysis of high-performance engine power cycles operating over propellant mixture ratio ranges of 12 to 6 and 9 to 6. A requirement to throttle up to 60 percent of nominal thrust was superimposed as a typical throttle range to limit vehicle acceleration as propellant is expended. The object of the analysis was to determine areas of concern relative to component and engine operability or potential hazards resulting from the operating requirements and ranges of conditions that derive from the overall engine requirements. The SSTO mission necessitates a high-performance, lightweight engine. Therefore, staged combustion power cycles employing either dual fuel-rich preburners or dual mixed (fuel-rich and oxygen-rich) preburners were examined. Engine mass flow and power balances were made and major component operating ranges were defined. Component size and arrangement were determined through engine layouts for one of the configurations evaluated. Each component is being examined to determine if there are areas of concern with respect to component efficiency, operability, reliability, or hazard. The effects of reducing the maximum chamber pressure were investigated for one of the cycles.

Increasing seismicity in the U. S. midcontinent: Implications for earthquake hazard

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellsworth, William L.; Llenos, Andrea L.; McGarr, Arthur F.; Michael, Andrew J.; Rubinstein, Justin L.; Mueller, Charles S.; Petersen, Mark D.; Calais, Eric

2015-01-01

Earthquake activity in parts of the central United States has increased dramatically in recent years. The space-time distribution of the increased seismicity, as well as numerous published case studies, indicates that the increase is of anthropogenic origin, principally driven by injection of wastewater coproduced with oil and gas from tight formations. Enhanced oil recovery and long-term production also contribute to seismicity at a few locations. Preliminary hazard models indicate that areas experiencing the highest rate of earthquakes in 2014 have a short-term (one-year) hazard comparable to or higher than the hazard in the source region of tectonic earthquakes in the New Madrid and Charleston seismic zones.

Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessments for Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan, China, Area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xie, F.; Wang, Z.; Liu, J.

2011-01-01

Seismic hazard and risk in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan, China, area were estimated from 500-year intensity observations. First, we digitized the intensity observations (maps) using ArcGIS with a cell size of 0.1 ?? 0.1??. Second, we performed a statistical analysis on the digitized intensity data, determined an average b value (0.39), and derived the intensity-frequency relationship (hazard curve) for each cell. Finally, based on a Poisson model for earthquake occurrence, we calculated seismic risk in terms of a probability of I ??? 7, 8, or 9 in 50 years. We also calculated the corresponding 10 percent probability of exceedance of these intensities in 50 years. The advantages of assessing seismic hazard and risk from intensity records are that (1) fewer assumptions (i. e., earthquake source and ground motion attenuation) are made, and (2) site-effect is included. Our study shows that the area has high seismic hazard and risk. Our study also suggests that current design peak ground acceleration or intensity for the area may not be adequate. ?? 2010 Birkh??user / Springer Basel AG.

Opinion: The use of natural hazard modeling for decision making under uncertainty

Treesearch

David E. Calkin; Mike Mentis

2015-01-01

Decision making to mitigate the effects of natural hazards is a complex undertaking fraught with uncertainty. Models to describe risks associated with natural hazards have proliferated in recent years. Concurrently, there is a growing body of work focused on developing best practices for natural hazard modeling and to create structured evaluation criteria for complex...

Regression dilution in the proportional hazards model.

PubMed

Hughes, M D

1993-12-01

The problem of regression dilution arising from covariate measurement error is investigated for survival data using the proportional hazards model. The naive approach to parameter estimation is considered whereby observed covariate values are used, inappropriately, in the usual analysis instead of the underlying covariate values. A relationship between the estimated parameter in large samples and the true parameter is obtained showing that the bias does not depend on the form of the baseline hazard function when the errors are normally distributed. With high censorship, adjustment of the naive estimate by the factor 1 + lambda, where lambda is the ratio of within-person variability about an underlying mean level to the variability of these levels in the population sampled, removes the bias. As censorship increases, the adjustment required increases and when there is no censorship is markedly higher than 1 + lambda and depends also on the true risk relationship.

The Impact of the Crown-Root Ratio on Survival of Abutment Teeth for Dentures.

PubMed

Tada, S; Allen, P F; Ikebe, K; Zheng, H; Shintani, A; Maeda, Y

2015-09-01

Crown-root ratio (CRR) is commonly recorded when planning prosthodontic procedures. However, there is a lack of longitudinal clinical data evaluating the association between CRR and tooth survival. The aim of this longitudinal practice-based study was to assess the impact of CRR on the survival of abutment teeth for removable partial dentures (RPDs). Data were collected from 147 patients provided with RPDs at a dental hospital in Japan. In total, 236 clasp-retained RPDs and 856 abutment teeth were analyzed. Survival of abutment teeth was assessed using Kaplan-Meier methods and Cox's proportional hazard (PH) regression. The Cox PH regression was used to assess the prognostic significance of initial CRR value with adjustments for clinically relevant factors, including age, sex, frequency of periodontal maintenance programs, occlusal support area, type of abutment tooth, status of endodontic treatment, and probing pocket depth. Abutment teeth were divided into 1 of 5 risk groups according to CRR: A (≤0.75), B (0.76-1.00), C (1.01-1.25), D (1.26-1.50) and E (≥1.51). The 7-year survival rate was 89.1% for group A, 85.9% for group B, 86.5% for group C, 76.9% for group D, and 46.7% for group E. The survival curves of groups A, B, and C were illustrated to be quite similar and favorable. The multivariable analysis treating CRR as a continuous variable allowed estimation of the hazard ratio at any specific CRR value. When CRR = 0.80 was set as a reference, the estimated hazard ratio was 0.58 for CRR = 0.50 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.36-0.91), 1.13 for CRR = 1.00 (95% CI, 0.93-1.37), 1.35 for CRR = 1.25 (95% CI, 1.02-1.80), 1.53 for CRR = 1.50 (95% CI, 1.15-2.08), or 1.95 for CRR = 2.00 (95% CI, 1.44-2.65). These practice-based longitudinal data provide information to improve the evidence-based prognosis of teeth in providing prosthodontic procedures. © International & American Associations for Dental Research.

Technical assistance for hazardous-waste reduction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thompson, F.M.; McComas, C.A.

1987-12-01

Minnesota's Waste Management Board has established, developed, and funded the Minnesota Technical Assistance Program (MnTAP). The MnTAP programs offers technical assistance to generators of hazardous waste by offering telephone and onsite consultation, a waste reduction resource bank, information dissemination, a student intern program, and research awards for waste reduction projects. The program has completed three years of successful operation. The increasing interest in and use of MnTAP's services by hazardous-waste generators has justified the belief that state technical assistance programs have an important role to play in helping generators to reduce their waste production.

NASA Hazard Analysis Process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deckert, George

2010-01-01

This viewgraph presentation reviews The NASA Hazard Analysis process. The contents include: 1) Significant Incidents and Close Calls in Human Spaceflight; 2) Subsystem Safety Engineering Through the Project Life Cycle; 3) The Risk Informed Design Process; 4) Types of NASA Hazard Analysis; 5) Preliminary Hazard Analysis (PHA); 6) Hazard Analysis Process; 7) Identify Hazardous Conditions; 8) Consider All Interfaces; 9) Work a Preliminary Hazard List; 10) NASA Generic Hazards List; and 11) Final Thoughts

Twenty-Year Predictors of Peripheral Arterial Disease Compared With Coronary Heart Disease in the Scottish Heart Health Extended Cohort (SHHEC).

PubMed

Tunstall-Pedoe, Hugh; Peters, Sanne A E; Woodward, Mark; Struthers, Allan D; Belch, Jill J F

2017-09-18

Coronary heart disease and peripheral arterial disease (PAD) affect different vascular territories. Supplementing baseline findings with assays from stored serum, we compared their 20-year predictors. We randomly recruited 15 737 disease-free men and women aged 30 to 75 years across Scotland between 1984 and 1995 and followed them through 2009 for death and hospital diagnoses. Of these, 3098 developed coronary heart disease (19.7%), and 499 PAD (3.2%). Hazard ratios for 45 variables in the Cox model were adjusted for age and sex and for factors in the 2007 ASSIGN cardiovascular risk score. Forty-four of them were entered into parsimonious predictive models, tested by c-statistics and net reclassification improvements. Many hazard ratios diminished with adjustment and parsimonious modeling, leaving significant survivors. The hazard ratios were mostly higher in PAD. New parsimonious models increased the c-statistic and net reclassification improvements over ASSIGN variables alone but varied in their components and ranking. Coronary heart disease and PAD shared 7 of the 9 factors from ASSIGN: age, sex, family history, socioeconomic status, diabetes mellitus, tobacco smoking, and systolic blood pressure (but neither total nor high-density lipoprotein cholesterol); plus 4 new ones: NT-pro-BNP, cotinine, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, and cystatin-C. The highest ranked hazard ratios for continuous factors in coronary heart disease were those for age, total cholesterol, high-sensitivity troponin, NT-pro-BNP, cotinine, apolipoprotein A, and waist circumference (plus 10 more); in PAD they were age, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, systolic blood pressure, expired carbon monoxide, cotinine, socioeconomic status, and lipoprotein (a) (plus 5 more). The mixture of shared with disparate determinants for arterial disease in the heart and the legs implies nonidentical pathogenesis: cholesterol dominant in the former, and inflammation (high-sensitivity C

Uric Acid Levels Can Predict Metabolic Syndrome and Hypertension in Adolescents: A 10-Year Longitudinal Study.

PubMed

Sun, Hai-Lun; Pei, Dee; Lue, Ko-Huang; Chen, Yen-Lin

2015-01-01

The relationships between uric acid and chronic disease risk factors such as metabolic syndrome, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and hypertension have been studied in adults. However, whether these relationships exist in adolescents is unknown. We randomly selected 8,005 subjects who were between 10 to 15 years old at baseline. Measurements of uric acid were used to predict the future occurrence of metabolic syndrome, hypertension, and type 2 diabetes. In total, 5,748 adolescents were enrolled and followed for a median of 7.2 years. Using cutoff points of uric acid for males and females (7.3 and 6.2 mg/dl, respectively), a high level of uric acid was either the second or third best predictor for hypertension in both genders (hazard ratio: 2.920 for males, 5.222 for females; p<0.05). However, uric acid levels failed to predict type 2 diabetes mellitus, and only predicted metabolic syndrome in males (hazard ratio: 1.658; p<0.05). The same results were found in multivariate adjusted analysis. In conclusion, a high level of uric acid indicated a higher likelihood of developing hypertension in both genders and metabolic syndrome in males after 10 years of follow-up. However, uric acid levels did not affect the occurrence of type 2 diabetes in both genders.

77 FR 17573 - Hazard Communication

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-26

... rate instead would have the effect of lowering the costs to $161 million per year and increasing the.... Information on chronic effects of exposure to hazardous chemicals helps employees recognize signs and symptoms... required. The current standard covers every type of health effect that may occur, including both acute and...

Health Hazard Appraisal Counseling—Continuing Evaluation

PubMed Central

LaDou, Joseph; Sherwood, John N.; Hughes, Lewis

1979-01-01

A program of annual health examinations was expanded to include counseling based on a computerized appraisal of individual patients' specific health risk factors. Data obtained from a specially designed questionnaire, laboratory tests and a physical examination yielded a health hazard appraisal showing a number of weighted risk factors and their relation to ten leading causes of death as determined for that patient. From all of this information, a “risk age” was developed which could then be compared with the patient's “true age.” The results were reviewed with each patient, and methods of correcting health hazards were stressed. The first annual retesting of a group of 107 examinees showed a net risk age reduction of 1.4 years (formerly reported in this journal). The longer term follow-up reported in this paper showed a net risk reduction of 2.38 years in a group of 26 examinees. The net risk age reduction in the two groups represented 32 and 40 percent, respectively, of the achievable risk age reduction when patients comply with suggestions made during risk reduction counseling. These findings indicate that health hazard appraisal counseling is an effective method of altering priorities of health practices. PMID:425518

Use of a Novel Visual Metaphor Measure (PRISM) to Evaluate School Children's Perceptions of Natural Hazards, Sources of Hazard Information, Hazard Mitigation Organizations, and the Effectiveness of Future Hazard Education Programs in Dominica, Eastern Caribbean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parham, M.; Day, S. J.; Teeuw, R. M.; Solana, C.; Sensky, T.

2014-12-01

This project aims to study the development of understanding of natural hazards (and of hazard mitigation) from the age of 11 to the age of 15 in secondary school children from 5 geographically and socially different schools on Dominica, through repeated interviews with the students and their teachers. These interviews will be coupled with a structured course of hazard education in the Geography syllabus; the students not taking Geography will form a control group. To avoid distortion of our results arising from the developing verbalization and literacy skills of the students over the 5 years of the project, we have adapted the PRISM tool used in clinical practice to assess patient perceptions of illness and treatment (Buchi & Sensky, 1999). This novel measure is essentially non-verbal, and uses spatial positions of moveable markers ("object" markers) on a board, relative to a fixed marker that represents the subject's "self", as a visual metaphor for the importance of the object to the subject. The subjects also explain their reasons for placing the markers as they have, to provide additional qualitative information. The PRISM method thus produces data on the perceptions measured on the board that can be subjected to statistical analysis, and also succinct qualitative data about each subject. Our study will gather data on participants' perceptions of different natural hazards, different sources of information about these, and organizations or individuals to whom they would go for help in a disaster, and investigate how these vary with geographical and social factors. To illustrate the method, which is generalisable, we present results from our initial interviews of the cohort of 11 year olds whom we will follow through their secondary school education.Büchi, S., & Sensky, T. (1999). PRISM: Pictorial Representation of Illness and Self Measure: a brief nonverbal measure of illness impact and therapeutic aid in psychosomatic medicine. Psychosomatics, 40(4), 314-320.

Use of a Novel Visual Metaphor Measure (PRISM) to Evaluate School Children's Perceptions of Natural Hazards, Sources of Hazard Information, Hazard Mitigation Organizations, and the Effectiveness of Future Hazard Education Programs in Dominica, Eastern Car

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parham, Martin; Day, Simon; Teeuw, Richard; Solana, Carmen; Sensky, Tom

2015-04-01

This project aims to study the development of understanding of natural hazards (and of hazard mitigation) from the age of 11 to the age of 15 in secondary school children from 5 geographically and socially different schools on Dominica, through repeated interviews with the students and their teachers. These interviews will be coupled with a structured course of hazard education in the Geography syllabus; the students not taking Geography will form a control group. To avoid distortion of our results arising from the developing verbalization and literacy skills of the students over the 5 years of the project, we have adapted the PRISM tool used in clinical practice to assess patient perceptions of illness and treatment (Buchi & Sensky, 1999). This novel measure is essentially non-verbal, and uses spatial positions of moveable markers ("object" markers) on a board, relative to a fixed marker that represents the subject's "self", as a visual metaphor for the importance of the object to the subject. The subjects also explain their reasons for placing the markers as they have, to provide additional qualitative information. The PRISM method thus produces data on the perceptions measured on the board that can be subjected to statistical analysis, and also succinct qualitative data about each subject. Our study will gather data on participants' perceptions of different natural hazards, different sources of information about these, and organizations or individuals to whom they would go for help in a disaster, and investigate how these vary with geographical and social factors. To illustrate the method, which is generalisable, we present results from our initial interviews of the cohort of 11 year olds whom we will follow through their secondary school education. Büchi, S., & Sensky, T. (1999). PRISM: Pictorial Representation of Illness and Self Measure: a brief nonverbal measure of illness impact and therapeutic aid in psychosomatic medicine. Psychosomatics, 40(4), 314-320.

The effects of building design on hazard of first service in Norwegian dairy cows.

PubMed

Martin, A D; Kielland, C; Nelson, S T; Østerås, O

2015-12-01

Reproductive inefficiency is one of the major production and economic constraints on modern dairy farms. The environment affects onset of ovarian activity in a cow postcalving and influences estrus behavior, which in turn affects a stockperson's ability to inseminate her at the correct time. This study used survival analysis to investigate effects of building design and animal factors on the postpartum hazard of first service (HFS) in freestall-housed Norwegian Red cows. The study was performed on 232 Norwegian dairy farms between 2004 and 2007. Data were obtained through on farm measurements and by accessing the Norwegian Dairy Herd Recording System. The final data set contained data on 38,436 calvings and 27,127 services. Univariate Cox proportional hazard analyses showed that herd size and milk yield were positively associated with HFS. Total free accessible area and free accessible area available per cow year were positively associated with the HFS, as was the number of freestalls available per cow. Cows housed on slatted floors had a lower HFS than those housed on solid floors. Conversely, cows housed on rubber floors had a higher HFS than cows on concrete floors. Dead-ending alleyways reduced the hazard of AI after calving. A multivariable Cox proportional hazards model, accounting for herd management by including a frailty term for herd, showed relationships between hazard of postpartum service and explanatory variables. Animals in herds with more than 50 cows had a higher HFS [hazard ratio (HR)=3.0] compared with those in smaller herds. The HFS was also higher (HR=4.3) if more than 8.8 m(2) of space was available per cow year compared with herds in which animals had less space. The HFS after calving increased with parity (parity 2 HR=0.5, parity ≥3 HR=1.7), and was reduced if a lactation began with dystocia (HR=0.82) or was a breed other than Norwegian Red (HR=0.2). The frailty term, herd, was large and highly significant indicating a significant

Coastal Hazards: Hurricanes, Tsunamis, Coastal Erosion.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vandas, Steve

1998-01-01

Details an ocean-based lesson and provides background information on the designation of 1998 as the "Year of the Ocean" by the United Nations. Contains activities on the poster insert that can help raise student awareness of coastal-zone hazards. (DDR)

Prevalence of hazardous exposures in veterinary practice

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wiggins, P.; Schenker, M.B.; Green, R.

1989-01-01

All female graduates of a major U.S. veterinary school were surveyed by mailed questionnaire to obtain details of work practice and hazard exposure during the most recent year worked and during all pregnancies. Exposure questions were based on previously implicated occupational hazards which included anesthetic gases, radiation, zoonoses, prostaglandins, vaccines, physical trauma, and pesticides. The response rate was 86% (462/537). We found that practice type and pregnancy status were major determinants of hazard exposure within the veterinary profession. Small-animal practitioners reported the highest rates of exposure to anesthetic gas (94%), X-ray (90%), and pesticides (57%). Large-animal practitioners reported greater ratesmore » of trauma (64%) and potential exposure to prostaglandins (92%), Brucella abortus vaccine (23%), and carbon monoxide (18%). Potentially hazardous workplace practices or equipment were common. Forty-one percent of respondents who reported taking X-rays did not wear film badges, and 76% reported physically restraining animals for X-ray procedures. Twenty-seven percent of the respondents exposed to anesthetic gases worked at facilities which did not have waste anesthetic gas scavenging systems. Women who worked as veterinarians during a pregnancy attempted to reduce exposures to X-rays, insecticides, and other potentially hazardous exposures. Some potentially hazardous workplace exposures are common in veterinary practice, and measures to educate workers and to reduce these exposures should not await demonstration of adverse health effects.« less

Risk for household safety hazards: Socioeconomic and sociodemographic factors.

PubMed

Mayes, Sunnye; Roberts, Michael C; Stough, Cathleen Odar

2014-12-01

Many unintentional injuries to young children occur in the home. The current study examines the relation between family socioeconomic and sociodemographic factors and risk factors for home injury. Presence of household hazards was examined in 80 families with toddler-aged children. Parental ability to identify household hazards in pictures was also assessed. ANOVAs and Pearson product-moment correlations examined the relationship between presence of household hazards, knowledge to identify hazards, and factors of yearly family income, parental age, parental education, parental marital status, child ethnicity, and the number of children living in the home. A greater number of hazards were found in the homes of both the lowest and highest income families, but poorer knowledge to identify household hazards was found only among parents of the lowest income families and younger parents. Across family socioeconomic status, parent knowledge of hazards was related to observed household hazards. The relationship between family income and risk for injury is complex, and children of both lower and higher SES families may be at risk for injury. While historically particular focus has been placed on risk for injury among children in low income families, injury prevention efforts should target reducing presence of household hazards in both high and low SES families. Copyright © 2014 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Preliminary volcano-hazard assessment for the Tanaga volcanic cluster, Tanaga Island, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coombs, Michelle L.; McGimsey, Robert G.; Browne, Brandon L.

2007-01-01

Summary of Volcano Hazards at Tanaga Volcanic Cluster The Tanaga volcanic cluster lies on the northwest part of Tanaga Island, about 100 kilometers west of Adak, Alaska, and 2,025 kilometers southwest of Anchorage, Alaska. The cluster consists of three volcanoes-from west to east, they are Sajaka, Tanaga, and Takawangha. All three volcanoes have erupted in the last 1,000 years, producing lava flows and tephra (ash) deposits. A much less frequent, but potentially more hazardous phenomenon, is volcanic edifice collapse into the sea, which likely happens only on a timescale of every few thousands of years, at most. Parts of the volcanic bedrock near Takawangha have been altered by hydrothermal activity and are prone to slope failure, but such events only present a local hazard. Given the volcanic cluster's remote location, the primary hazard from the Tanaga volcanoes is airborne ash that could affect aircraft. In this report, we summarize the major volcanic hazards associated with the Tanaga volcanic cluster.

Working towards a clearer and more helpful hazard map: investigating the influence of hazard map design on hazard communication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, M. A.; Lindsay, J. M.; Gaillard, J.

2015-12-01

Globally, geological hazards are communicated using maps. In traditional hazard mapping practice, scientists analyse data about a hazard, and then display the results on a map for stakeholder and public use. However, this one-way, top-down approach to hazard communication is not necessarily effective or reliable. The messages which people take away will be dependent on the way in which they read, interpret, and understand the map, a facet of hazard communication which has been relatively unexplored. Decades of cartographic studies suggest that variables in the visual representation of data on maps, such as colour and symbology, can have a powerful effect on how people understand map content. In practice, however, there is little guidance or consistency in how hazard information is expressed and represented on maps. Accordingly, decisions are often made based on subjective preference, rather than research-backed principles. Here we present the results of a study in which we explore how hazard map design features can influence hazard map interpretation, and we propose a number of considerations for hazard map design. A series of hazard maps were generated, with each one showing the same probabilistic volcanic ashfall dataset, but using different verbal and visual variables (e.g., different colour schemes, data classifications, probabilistic formats). Following a short pilot study, these maps were used in an online survey of 110 stakeholders and scientists in New Zealand. Participants answered 30 open-ended and multiple choice questions about ashfall hazard based on the different maps. Results suggest that hazard map design can have a significant influence on the messages readers take away. For example, diverging colour schemes were associated with concepts of "risk" and decision-making more than sequential schemes, and participants made more precise estimates of hazard with isarithmic data classifications compared to binned or gradational shading. Based on such

Health Hazard Appraisal in Patient Counseling

PubMed Central

LaDou, Joseph; Sherwood, John N.; Hughes, Lewis

1975-01-01

A program of annual health examinations was expanded to include counseling based on a computerized appraisal of individual patients' specific health hazard factors. Data obtained from a specially designed questionnaire, laboratory tests and a physical examination yielded a printout showing a number of weighted risk factors and their relation to ten leading causes of death as determined for that patient. From all of this information, a risk (“apparent”) age was developed for the patient. The results were reviewed with each patient, and methods of correcting health hazards were stressed. A total of 488 persons were appraised, and 107 were randomly reappraised in less than a year, with the finding that the net risk age was reduced by 1.4 years. Such a reduction in risk age is significant; it indicates that appraisal-based counseling is an effective method of altering priorities of health practices. PMID:1114813

Seismic Landslide Hazard for the Cities of Oakland and Piedmont, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miles, Scott B.; Keefer, David K.

2001-01-01

This map describes the possible hazard from earthquake-induced landslides for the cities of Oakland and Piedmont, CA. The hazard depicted by this map was modeled for a scenario corresponding to an M=7.1 earthquake on the Hayward, CA fault. This scenario magnitude is associated with complete rupture of the northern and southern segments of the Hayward fault, an event that has an estimated return period of about 500 years. The modeled hazard also corresponds to completely saturated ground-water conditions resulting from an extreme storm event or series of storm events. This combination of earthquake and ground-water scenarios represents a particularly severe state of hazard for earthquake-induced landslides. For dry ground-water conditions, overall hazard will be less, while relative patterns of hazard are likely to change.

Breast cancer risk is increased in the years following false-positive breast cancer screening.

PubMed

Goossens, Mathijs C; De Brabander, Isabel; De Greve, Jacques; Vaes, Evelien; Van Ongeval, Chantal; Van Herck, Koen; Kellen, Eliane

2017-09-01

A small number of studies have investigated breast cancer (BC) risk among women with a history of false-positive recall (FPR) in BC screening, but none of them has used time-to-event analysis while at the same time quantifying the effect of false-negative diagnostic assessment (FNDA). FNDA occurs when screening detects BC, but this BC is missed on diagnostic assessment (DA). As a result of FNDA, screenings that detected cancer are incorrectly classified as FPR. Our study linked data recorded in the Flemish BC screening program (women aged 50-69 years) to data from the national cancer registry. We used Cox proportional hazards models on a retrospective cohort of 298 738 women to assess the association between FPR and subsequent BC, while adjusting for potential confounders. The mean follow-up was 6.9 years. Compared with women without recall, women with a history of FPR were at an increased risk of developing BC [hazard ratio=2.10 (95% confidence interval: 1.92-2.31)]. However, 22% of BC after FPR was due to FNDA. The hazard ratio dropped to 1.69 (95% confidence interval: 1.52-1.87) when FNDA was excluded. Women with FPR have a subsequently increased BC risk compared with women without recall. The risk is higher for women who have a FPR BI-RADS 4 or 5 compared with FPR BI-RADS 3. There is room for improvement of diagnostic assessment: 41% of the excess risk is explained by FNDA after baseline screening.

Preoperative Platelet to Albumin Ratio Predicts Outcome of Patients with Cholangiocarcinoma.

PubMed

Saito, Nobuhiro; Shirai, Yoshihiro; Horiuchi, Takashi; Sugano, Hiroshi; Shiba, Hiroaki; Sakamoto, Taro; Uwagawa, Tadashi; Yanaga, Katsuhiko

2018-02-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the prognostic index of the preoperative platelet to albumin ratio (PAR) in patients who underwent primary resection for cholangiocarcinoma. A total of 59 patients were divided into two groups: those with PAR ≥72.6×10 3 or <72.6×10 3 according to the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve. PAR was significantly inversely associated with overall (OS) and disease-free (DFS) survival on univariate analysis. PAR showed significance on multivariate analysis for OS (hazard ratio=6.232, 95% confidence interval=1.283-30.279, p=0.023), along with tumor differentiation (p=0.009), nodal involvement (p=0.001), intraoperative blood loss (p=0.001), and serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) (p=0.012). High PAR was also significantly associated poor DFS on multivariate analysis (hazard ratio(HR)=4.422, 95% confidence interval(CI)=1.168-16.732, p=0.029), along with tumor differentiation (p=0.009). PAR is a useful prognostic index for OS and DFS in patients with cholangiocarcinoma after primary resection. By accumulating cases prospectively, this new index may be a reference for use before neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Copyright© 2018, International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. George J. Delinasios), All rights reserved.

Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) in continental Asia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhang, Peizhen; Yang, Zhi-xian; Gupta, Harsh K.; Bhatia, Satish C.; Shedlock, Kaye M.

1999-01-01

The regional hazard mapping for the whole Eastern Asia was coordinated by the SSB Regional Centre in Beijing, originating from the expansion of the test area initially established in the border region of China-India-Nepal-Myanmar- Bangla Dash, in coordination with the other Regional Centres (JIPE, Moscow, and AGSO, Canberra) and with the direct assistance of the USGS. All Eastern Asian countries have participated directly in this regional effort, with the addition of Japan, for which an existing national hazard map was incorporated. The regional hazard depicts the expected peak ground acceleration with 10% exceedance probability in 50 years.

Revision to flood hazard evaluation for the Savannah River Site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Buckley, R.; Werth, D.

Requirements for the Natural Phenomena Hazard (NPH) mitigation for new and existing Department of Energy (DOE) facilities are outlined in DOE Order 420.1. This report examines the hazards posed by potential flooding and represents an update to two previous reports. The facility-specific probabilistic flood hazard curve is defined as the water elevation for each annual probability of precipitation occurrence (or inversely, the return period in years). New design hyetographs for both 6-hr and 24-hr precipitation distributions were used in conjunction with hydrological models of various basins within the Savannah River Site (SRS). For numerous locations of interest, peak flow dischargemore » and flood water elevation were determined. In all cases, the probability of flooding of these facilities for a 100,000 year precipitation event is negligible.« less

Predictors of CD4:CD8 ratio normalization and its effect on health outcomes in the era of combination antiretroviral therapy.

PubMed

Leung, Victor; Gillis, Jennifer; Raboud, Janet; Cooper, Curtis; Hogg, Robert S; Loutfy, Mona R; Machouf, Nima; Montaner, Julio S G; Rourke, Sean B; Tsoukas, Chris; Klein, Marina B

2013-01-01

HIV leads to CD4:CD8 ratio inversion as immune dysregulation progresses. We examined the predictors of CD4:CD8 normalization after combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) and determined whether normalization is associated with reduced progression to AIDS-defining illnesses (ADI) and death. A Canadian cohort of HIV-positive adults with CD4:CD8<1.2 prior to starting cART from 2000-2010 were analyzed. Predictors of (1) reaching a CD4:CD8 ≥ 1.2 on two separate follow-up visits >30 days apart, and (2) ADI and death from all causes were assessed using adjusted proportional hazards models. 4206 patients were studied for a median of 2.77 years and 306 (7.2%) normalized their CD4:CD8 ratio. Factors associated with achieving a normal CD4:CD8 ratio were: baseline CD4+ T-cells >350 cells/mm(3), baseline CD8+ T-cells <500 cells/mm(3), time-updated HIV RNA suppression, and not reporting sex with other men as a risk factor. There were 213 ADIs and 214 deaths in 13476 person-years of follow-up. Achieving a normal CD4:CD8 ratio was not associated with time to ADI/death. In our study, few individuals normalized their CD4:CD8 ratios within the first few years of initiating modern cART. This large study showed no additional short-term predictive value of the CD4:CD8 ratio for clinical outcomes after accounting for other risk factors including age and HIV RNA.

Night-time ambulatory blood pressure is the best pretreatment blood pressure predictor of 11-year mortality in treated older hypertensives.

PubMed

Wing, Lindon M H; Chowdhury, Enayet K; Reid, Christopher M; Beilin, Lawrence J; Brown, Mark A

2018-06-02

Numerous studies have shown a stronger relationship between ambulatory blood pressure (ABP), particularly night ABP, and cardiovascular events/mortality than for office blood pressure (OBP). A previous clinical trial (Syst-Eur) showed that pretreatment ABP was only a better predictor of outcome than OBP in placebo-treated participants. The current study in treated elderly hypertensives from the Second Australian National Blood Pressure study (ANBP2) examined whether pretreatment ABP was a better predictor of mortality than OBP over long-term (∼11 years) follow-up. ANBP2 was a comparative outcome trial in 6083 off-treatment or previously untreated elderly hypertensives. In the ABP substudy, at study entry, participants had ABP and nurse-performed OBP measurements. Cox proportional hazards analysis assessed the relationships between both OBP and ABP at study entry and 11-year all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, with results pooled from both active treatment phases. In 702 participants, over a median of 10.8 years, including 6.7 years after the trial, 167 died (82 cardiovascular). Pretreatment 'night' systolic ABP and pulse pressure were the best predictors of '11-year' cardiovascular mortality (hazard ratios: 1.26; 95% confidence intervals: 1.10-1.45, P=0.001 and 1.18; 1.06-1.31, P=0.003, respectively) and all-cause mortality (hazard ratios: 1.15; 95% confidence intervals:1.05-1.28, P=0.005 and 1.09; 1.10-1.31, P=0.03, respectively). OBP was not a significant predictor of mortality. In actively treated elderly hypertensives participating in ANBP2, all-cause or cardiovascular deaths were significantly related to pretreatment ABP, particularly to night-time systolic ABP and pulse pressure, but not to OBP.

Trends in mortality from occupational hazards among men in England and Wales during 1979-2010.

PubMed

Harris, E Clare; Palmer, Keith T; Cox, Vanessa; Darnton, Andrew; Osman, John; Coggon, David

2016-06-01

To monitor the impact of health and safety provisions and inform future preventive strategies, we investigated trends in mortality from established occupational hazards in England and Wales. We analysed data from death certificates on underlying cause of death and last full-time occupation for 3 688 916 deaths among men aged 20-74 years in England and Wales during 1979-2010 (excluding 1981 when records were incomplete). Proportional mortality ratios (PMRs), standardised for age and social class, were calculated for occupations at risk of specified hazards. Observed and expected numbers of deaths for each hazard were summed across occupations, and the differences summarised as average annual excesses. Excess mortality declined substantially for most hazards. For example, the annual excess of deaths from chronic bronchitis and emphysema fell from 170.7 during 1979-1990 to 36.0 in 2001-2010, and that for deaths from injury and poisoning from 237.0 to 87.5. In many cases, the improvements were associated with falling PMRs (suggesting safer working practices), but they also reflected reductions in the numbers of men employed in more hazardous jobs, and declining mortality from some diseases across the whole population. Notable exceptions to the general improvement were diseases caused by asbestos, especially in some construction trades and sinonasal cancer in woodworkers. The highest priority for future prevention of work-related fatalities is the minority of occupational disorders for which excess mortality remains static or is increasing, in particular asbestos-related disease among certain occupations in the construction industry and sinonasal cancer in woodworkers. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Long-term multi-hazard assessment for El Misti volcano (Peru)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandri, Laura; Thouret, Jean-Claude; Constantinescu, Robert; Biass, Sébastien; Tonini, Roberto

2014-02-01

We propose a long-term probabilistic multi-hazard assessment for El Misti Volcano, a composite cone located <20 km from Arequipa. The second largest Peruvian city is a rapidly expanding economic centre and is classified by UNESCO as World Heritage. We apply the Bayesian Event Tree code for Volcanic Hazard (BET_VH) to produce probabilistic hazard maps for the predominant volcanic phenomena that may affect c.900,000 people living around the volcano. The methodology accounts for the natural variability displayed by volcanoes in their eruptive behaviour, such as different types/sizes of eruptions and possible vent locations. For this purpose, we treat probabilistically several model runs for some of the main hazardous phenomena (lahars, pyroclastic density currents (PDCs), tephra fall and ballistic ejecta) and data from past eruptions at El Misti (tephra fall, PDCs and lahars) and at other volcanoes (PDCs). The hazard maps, although neglecting possible interactions among phenomena or cascade effects, have been produced with a homogeneous method and refer to a common time window of 1 year. The probability maps reveal that only the north and east suburbs of Arequipa are exposed to all volcanic threats except for ballistic ejecta, which are limited to the uninhabited but touristic summit cone. The probability for pyroclastic density currents reaching recently expanding urban areas and the city along ravines is around 0.05 %/year, similar to the probability obtained for roof-critical tephra loading during the rainy season. Lahars represent by far the most probable threat (around 10 %/year) because at least four radial drainage channels can convey them approximately 20 km away from the volcano across the entire city area in heavy rain episodes, even without eruption. The Río Chili Valley represents the major concern to city safety owing to the probable cascading effect of combined threats: PDCs and rockslides, dammed lake break-outs and subsequent lahars or floods

Publications of Volcano Hazards Program 2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nathenson, Manuel

2001-01-01

The Volcano Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is part of the Geologic Hazards Assessments subactivity as funded by Congressional appropriation. Investigations are carried out in the Geology and Hydrology Disciplines of the USGS and with cooperators at the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, University of Utah, and University of Washington Geophysics Program. This report lists publications from all these institutions. This report contains only published papers and maps; numerous abstracts produced for presentations at scientific meetings have not been included. Publications are included based on date of publication with no attempt to assign them to Fiscal Year.

Automated Hazard Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Riddle, F. J.

2003-06-26

The Automated Hazard Analysis (AHA) application is a software tool used to conduct job hazard screening and analysis of tasks to be performed in Savannah River Site facilities. The AHA application provides a systematic approach to the assessment of safety and environmental hazards associated with specific tasks, and the identification of controls regulations, and other requirements needed to perform those tasks safely. AHA is to be integrated into existing Savannah River site work control and job hazard analysis processes. Utilization of AHA will improve the consistency and completeness of hazard screening and analysis, and increase the effectiveness of the workmore » planning process.« less

[Hazardous material and safety conditions in veterinary practice. 2: Flammable liquid, disinfectants and cleansing media, cytostatics, pressurized gases, liquid nitrogen, narcotic gases, mailing of diagnostic samples, hazardous waste].

PubMed

Sliwinski-Korell, A; Lutz, F

1998-05-01

In the last years the standards for professional handling of hazardous material as well as health and safety in the veterinary practice became considerably more stringent. This is expressed in various safety regulations, particularly the decree of hazardous material and the legislative directives concerning health and safety at work. In part 1, a definition based on the law for hazardous material was given and the potential risks were mentioned. The correct documentation regarding the protection of personal and the purchase, storage, working conditions and removal of hazardous material was explained. General rules for the handling of hazardous material were described. In part 2, partial emphasis is put on the handling of flammable liquids, disinfectants, cytostatica, pressurised gases, liquid nitrogen, narcotics, mailing of potentially infectious material and safe disposal of hazardous waste. Advice about possible unrecognized hazards and references are also given.

Challenges in Assessing Seismic Hazard in Intraplate Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hintersberger, E.; Kuebler, S.; Landgraf, A.; Stein, S. A.

2014-12-01

Intraplate regions are often characterized by scattered, clustered and migrating seismicity and the occurrence of low-strain areas next to high-strain ones. Increasing evidence for large paleoearthquakes in such regions together with population growth and development of critical facilities, call for better assessments of earthquake hazards. Existing seismic hazard assessment for intraplate Europe is based on instrumental and historical seismicity of the past 1000 years, as well some active fault data. These observations face important limitations due to the quantity and quality of the available data bases. Even considering the long record of historical events in some populated areas of Europe, this time-span of thousand years likely fails to capture some faults' typical large-event recurrence intervals that are in the order of tens of thousands of years. Paleoseismology helps lengthen the observation window, but only produces point measurements, and preferentially in regions suspected to be seismically active. As a result, the expected maximum magnitudes of future earthquakes are quite uncertain, likely to be underestimated, and earthquakes are likely to occur in unexpected locations. These issues in particular arise in the heavily populated Rhine Graben and Vienna Basin areas, and in considering the hazard to critical facilities like nuclear power plants posed by low-probability events.

Hazardous Waste

MedlinePlus

... use them properly, many chemicals can still harm human health and the environment. When you throw these substances away, they become hazardous waste. Some hazardous wastes come from products in our ...

Geoelectric Hazard Maps for the Mid-Atlantic United States: 100 Year Extreme Values and the 1989 Magnetic Storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Love, Jeffrey J.; Lucas, Greg M.; Kelbert, Anna; Bedrosian, Paul A.

2018-01-01

Maps of extreme value geoelectric field amplitude are constructed for the Mid-Atlantic United States, a region with high population density and critically important power grid infrastructure. Geoelectric field time series for the years 1983-2014 are estimated by convolving Earth surface impedances obtained from 61 magnetotelluric survey sites across the Mid-Atlantic with historical 1 min (2 min Nyquist) measurements of geomagnetic variation obtained from a nearby observatory. Statistical models are fitted to the maximum geoelectric amplitudes occurring during magnetic storms, and extrapolations made to estimate threshold amplitudes only exceeded, on average, once per century. For the Mid-Atlantic region, 100 year geoelectric exceedance amplitudes have a range of almost 3 orders of magnitude (from 0.04 V/km at a site in southern Pennsylvania to 24.29 V/km at a site in central Virginia), and they have significant geographic granularity, all of which is due to site-to-site differences in magnetotelluric impedance. Maps of these 100 year exceedance amplitudes resemble those of the estimated geoelectric amplitudes attained during the March 1989 magnetic storm, and, in that sense, the March 1989 storm resembles what might be loosely called a "100 year" event. The geoelectric hazard maps reported here stand in stark contrast with the 100 year geoelectric benchmarks developed for the North American Electric Reliability Corporation.

The West Virginia university forest hazard rating study: the hazards of hazard rating

Treesearch

Ray R., Jr. Hicks; David E. Fosbroke; Shrivenkar Kosuri; Charles B. Yuill

1991-01-01

The West Virginia University (WVU) Forest is a 7,600-acre tract located along the leading edge of gypsy moth infestation. The hazard rating study at the WVU Forest serves three objectives. First, hazard rating is being used to determine the extent and distribution of damage that can be expected when gypsy moth defoliation occurs. Second, susceptibility and...

The hazards of hazard identification in environmental epidemiology.

PubMed

Saracci, Rodolfo

2017-08-09

Hazard identification is a major scientific challenge, notably for environmental epidemiology, and is often surrounded, as the recent case of glyphosate shows, by debate arising in the first place by the inherently problematic nature of many components of the identification process. Particularly relevant in this respect are components less amenable to logical or mathematical formalization and essentially dependent on scientists' judgment. Four such potentially hazardous components that are capable of distorting the correct process of hazard identification are reviewed and discussed from an epidemiologist perspective: (1) lexical mix-up of hazard and risk (2) scientific questions as distinct from testable hypotheses, and implications for the hierarchy of strength of evidence obtainable from different types of study designs (3) assumptions in prior beliefs and model choices and (4) conflicts of interest. Four suggestions are put forward to strengthen a process that remains in several aspects judgmental, but not arbitrary, in nature.

Comparison of Characteristics and Outcomes of Asymptomatic Versus Symptomatic Left Ventricular Dysfunction in Subjects 65 Years Old or Older (from the Cardiovascular Health Study)

PubMed Central

Pandhi, Jay; Gottdiener, John S.; Bartz, Traci M.; Kop, Willem J.; Mehra, Mandeep R.

2014-01-01

Although asymptomatic left ventricular (LV) systolic dysfunction (ALVSD) is common, its phenotype and prognosis for incident heart failure (HF) and mortality are insufficiently understood. Echocardiography was done in 5,649 participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study (age 73.0 ± 5.6 years, 57.6% women). The clinical characteristics and cardiovascular risk factors of the participants with ALVSD were compared to those with normal LV function (ejection fraction ≥55%) and with symptomatic LV systolic dysfunction (SLVSD; ejection fraction <55% and a history of HF). Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the risk of incident HF and mortality in those with ALVSD. Also, comparisons were made among the LV ejection fraction subgroups using previously validated cutoff values (<45% and 45% to 55%), adjusting for the demographic and cardiovascular disease risk factors. Those with ALVSD (7.3%) were more likely to have cardiovascular risk factors than those in the reference group (without LV dysfunction or symptomatic HF) but less likely than those with SLVSD. The HF rate was 24 occurrences per 1,000 person-years in the reference group and 57 occurrences per 1,000 person-years in those with ALVSD. The HF rate was 45 occurrences per 1,000 person-years for those with ALVSD and mildly impaired LV dysfunction and 93 occurrences per 1,000 person-years for those with ALVSD and moderate to severe LV dysfunction. The mortality rate was 51 deaths per 1,000 person-years in the reference group, 90 deaths per 1,000 person-years in the ALVSD group, and 156 deaths per 1,000 person-years in the SLVSD group. Adjusting for covariates, compared to the reference group, ALVSD was associated with an increased risk of incident HF (hazard ratio 1.60,95% confidence interval 1.35 to 1.91), cardiovascular mortality (hazard ratio 2.13, 95% confidence interval 1.81 to 2.51), and all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 1.46, 95% confidence interval 1.29 to 1.64). In conclusion, subjects with

Comparison of characteristics and outcomes of asymptomatic versus symptomatic left ventricular dysfunction in subjects 65 years old or older (from the Cardiovascular Health Study).

PubMed

Pandhi, Jay; Gottdiener, John S; Bartz, Traci M; Kop, Willem J; Mehra, Mandeep R

2011-06-01

Although asymptomatic left ventricular (LV) systolic dysfunction (ALVSD) is common, its phenotype and prognosis for incident heart failure (HF) and mortality are insufficiently understood. Echocardiography was done in 5,649 participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study (age 73.0 ± 5.6 years, 57.6% women). The clinical characteristics and cardiovascular risk factors of the participants with ALVSD were compared to those with normal LV function (ejection fraction ≥55%) and with symptomatic LV systolic dysfunction (SLVSD; ejection fraction <55% and a history of HF). Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the risk of incident HF and mortality in those with ALVSD. Also, comparisons were made among the LV ejection fraction subgroups using previously validated cutoff values (<45% and 45% to 55%), adjusting for the demographic and cardiovascular disease risk factors. Those with ALVSD (7.3%) were more likely to have cardiovascular risk factors than those in the reference group (without LV dysfunction or symptomatic HF) but less likely than those with SLVSD. The HF rate was 24 occurrences per 1,000 person-years in the reference group and 57 occurrences per 1,000 person-years in those with ALVSD. The HF rate was 45 occurrences per 1,000 person-years for those with ALVSD and mildly impaired LV dysfunction and 93 occurrences per 1,000 person-years for those with ALVSD and moderate to severe LV dysfunction. The mortality rate was 51 deaths per 1,000 person-years in the reference group, 90 deaths per 1,000 person-years in the ALVSD group, and 156 deaths per 1,000 person-years in the SLVSD group. Adjusting for covariates, compared to the reference group, ALVSD was associated with an increased risk of incident HF (hazard ratio 1.60, 95% confidence interval 1.35 to 1.91), cardiovascular mortality (hazard ratio 2.13, 95% confidence interval 1.81 to 2.51), and all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 1.46, 95% confidence interval 1.29 to 1.64). In conclusion, subjects with

NEO Impact Hazard Scales in the Context of Other Hazard Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, C. R.; Mulligan, B. M.

2002-09-01

Astronomers are unaccustomed to practical matters like warning society about dangers. The NEO impact hazard has thrust new responsibilities upon us, which have been dealt with previously by other specialties, involving hurricanes, space weather, earthquakes, terrorism, etc. We discuss some lessons from the problems and successes of other warning scales. For example, a failing of the Torino Scale (TS) mirrors a failure of the Homeland Security Advisory System (HSAS, "terrorism scale"): it doesn't clearly tell ordinary folk what they should do; it says that TS=1 events merit "careful monitoring," a task for astronomers, not the public. The Red Cross has augmented the HSAS to separately advise individuals, families, neighborhoods, businesses, and schools what they should do; the TS could be similarly improved. The recent 2002 NT7 media scare was exacerbated by public use of the Palermo Technical Scale (PTS), which was not intended for such use, rather than the appropriate Torino Scale. Seismologists have more successfully avoided public confusion while internally debating different earthquake scales. Astronomers need to empathize with the needs of science journalists and communicators and with the low level of scientific comprehension by the public, who may be genuinely scared by mispresented cosmic hazards. A single warning scale should be used by all astronomers, should be very simple (e.g. one-dimensional), should have a public face that is consistent for years and decades (even if some fine-tuning is done behind the scenes in calculating values), and should suggest how a prudent person should react to a given hazard level. The TS has been used widely for several years by the popular media. It should remain the tool that we use to put particular impact predictions into context. While leaving the numbers and colors the same, we could augment and clarify the public advice. We could also make technical tweaks to how values are calculated. For example, it is possible

Very Long-Term (10 to 14 Year) Outcomes After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Versus Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting for Multivessel Coronary Artery Disease in the Bare-Metal Stent Era.

PubMed

Shiomi, Hiroki; Yamaji, Kyohei; Morimoto, Takeshi; Shizuta, Satoshi; Nakatsuma, Kenji; Higami, Hirooki; Furukawa, Yutaka; Nakagawa, Yoshihisa; Kadota, Kazushige; Ando, Kenji; Sakata, Ryuzo; Okabayashi, Hitoshi; Hanyu, Michiya; Shimamoto, Mitsuomi; Nishiwaki, Noboru; Komiya, Tatsuhiko; Kimura, Takeshi

2016-08-01

Many of the previous randomized trials comparing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in patients with multivessel coronary artery disease reported equivalent or better survival with CABG as compared with PCI at 5-year follow-up. However, 5-year follow-up might be too short to evaluate the true differences in long-term clinical outcomes between PCI and CABG. Among 8934 patients enrolled in the extended 10- to 14-year follow-up study of the CREDO-Kyoto registry cohort-1 (Coronary Revascularization Demonstrating Outcome study in Kyoto) conducted in the bare-metal stent era, 5152 (PCI: n=3490 and CABG: n=1662) patients had multivessel coronary artery disease without left main disease. Median follow-up duration was 11.2 (interquartile range: 10.2-12.2) years. The cumulative 10-year incidence of all-cause death was not significantly different between PCI and CABG (32.2% versus 31.7%; log-rank P=0.93). After adjusting for confounders, however, the mortality risk of PCI was significantly higher than that of CABG (hazard ratio, 1.19 [95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.39]; P=0.03). Within 5 years after the index procedure, the risk for all-cause death was significantly higher after PCI than after CABG (hazard ratio, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.12-1.79; P=0.004). By a landmark analysis at 5 years, however, the cumulative 10-year incidence of and adjusted risk for all-cause death beyond 5 years were not significantly different between PCI and CABG (19.3% versus 20.0%; log-rank P=0.22 and hazard ratio, 1.02, 95% confidence interval, 0.83-1.26; P=0.82). CABG as compared with PCI was associated with better 10-year survival in patients with multivessel coronary artery disease. However, the benefit of CABG compared with PCI on late mortality beyond 5 years was not observed in this study. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Ranking the risk of wildlife species hazardous to military aircraft

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zakrajsek, E.J.; Bissonette, J.A.

2005-01-01

Collisions between birds and aircraft (birdstrikes) pose a major threat to aviation safety. Different species pose different levels of threat; thus, identification of the most hazardous species can help managers identify the level of hazard and prioritize mitigation efforts. Dolbeer et al. (2000) assessed the hazard posed by birds to civilian aircraft by analyzing data from the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) Wildlife Strike Database to rank the hazardous species and species groups. A similar analysis has not been done for the military but would be useful and necessary. Military flight characteristics differ from those of civilian flights. During the period 1985-1998, birdstrikes cost the United States Air Force (USAF) an average of $35 million/year in damage. Using the USAF Birdstrike Database, we selected and evaluated each species or species group by the number of strikes recorded in each of 3 damage categories. We weighted damage categories to reflect extent and cost of damage. The USAF Birdstrike Database contained 25,519 records of wildlife strikes in the United States. During the period 1985-1998, 22 (mean = 1.6/year) Class-A birdstrikes (>$1,000,000 damage, loss of aircraft, loss of life, or permanent total disability) were sustained, accounting for 80% of total monetary losses caused by birds. Vultures (Cathartes aura, Coragyps atratus, Caracara cheriway) were ranked the most hazardous species group (Hazard Index Rank [HIR] = 127) to USAF aircraft, followed by geese (Branta canadensis, Chen caerulescens, HIR = 76), pelicans (Pelecanus erythrorhynchos, P. occidentalis, HIR = 47), and buteos (Buteo sp., HIR = 30). Of the smaller flocking birds, blackbirds and starlings (mostly Agelaius phoeniceus, Euphagus cyanocephalus, Molothrus ater, Sturnus vulgaris, HIR = 46), horned larks (Eremophila alpestris, HIR = 24), and swallows (Families Hirundinidae, Apodidae, HIR = 23) were species groups ranked highest. Coupling these results with local bird census

Lung Cancer Risk and Demographic Characteristics of Current 20-29 Pack-year Smokers: Implications for Screening.

PubMed

Pinsky, Paul F; Kramer, Barnett S

2015-11-01

Based on current recommendations, 30+ pack-years of smoking are required for eligibility for low-dose CT (LDCT) lung cancer screening; former smokers must have quit within 15 years. We investigated whether current smokers with 20 to 29 pack-years have similar lung cancer risks as eligible former smokers and also whether they have a different demographic profile. The Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO) was a randomly assigned screening trial of subjects age 55 to 74 years with chest radiographs (CXR) used for lung cancer. Subjects completed a baseline questionnaire containing smoking history questions. Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for age and sex, were utilized to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for various smoking history groups. Next, we utilized the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), which inquired about smoking history and race/ethnicity, to analyze the demographic profiles of various high-risk smoking history categories. All statistical tests were two-sided. The PLCO cohort included 18 114 former and 12 243 current LDCT-eligible smokers, plus 2283 20- to 29-pack-year current smokers. The hazard ratio for 20- to 29-pack-year current smokers compared with eligible (30+ pack-year) former smokers was 1.07 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.75 to 1.5). Based on the NHIS, 10 million persons in the United States are currently LDCT eligible; an additional 1.6 million (16%, 95% CI = 13.6% to 19.0%) are 20- to 29-pack-year current smokers. The percentage increase in eligibles if 20- to 29-pack-year current smokers were included was substantially greater for women than men (22.2%, 95% CI = 17.9% to 26.7%; vs 12.2%, 95% CI = 9.3% to 15.3%, P < .001) and for minorities than non-Hispanic whites (30.0%, 95% CI = 24.2% to 36.0%; vs 14.1%, 95% CI = 11.1% to 17.0%, P < .001). The potential benefits and harms of recommending LDCT screening for 20 to 29-pack-year current smokers should be assessed. Published by Oxford University

Mortality in Mild Cognitive Impairment Diagnosed with DSM-5 Criteria and with Petersen's Criteria: A 17-Year Follow-Up in a Community Study.

PubMed

Santabárbara, Javier; Gracia-García, Patricia; Pírez, Guillermo; López-Antón, Raúl; De La Cámara, Concepcion; Ventura, Tirso; Pérez-Sastre, Marina; Lobo, Elena; Saz, Pedro; Marcos, Guillermo; Lobo, Antonio

2016-11-01

To explore the possibility that the mortality risk of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) as diagnosed using Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition (DSM-5) criteria (DSM-5-MCI) will be higher than using Petersen's criteria (P-MCI) and to report the population-attributable fraction (PAF) of mortality due to MCI. A representative community sample of 4,803 individuals aged 55 or more years was interviewed and then followed for 17 years. Standardized instruments were used in the assessment, including the Geriatric Mental State-AGECAT, and research psychiatrists diagnosed P-MCI and DSM-5-MCI cases following operationalized criteria. Mortality information was obtained from the official population registry. Kaplan-Meier age-adjusted survival curves were built for the MCI diagnostic groups, and Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to calculate the hazard ratio of death in participants with MCI relative to those without. We also estimated the PAF of mortality due to specific MCI diagnostic groups. Compared with noncases, the mortality rate ratio was approximately double in DSM-5-MCI individuals (2.3) than in P-MCI individuals (1.2). In the multivariate statistical analysis, a significant association between each diagnostic category and mortality was observed but was only maintained in the final model in DSM-5-MCI cases (hazard ratio: 1.24). The PAF of mortality due to MCI was approximately 1% in both MCI categories. The mortality risk in comparison with noncases was higher in DSM-5-MCI than in P-MCI. The PAF of mortality in DSM-5-MCI individuals was ~ 1% over a 17-year period. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Comparative clinical effectiveness and cost effectiveness of endovascular strategy v open repair for ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm: three year results of the IMPROVE randomised trial.

PubMed

2017-11-14

Objective  To assess the three year clinical outcomes and cost effectiveness of a strategy of endovascular repair (if aortic morphology is suitable, open repair if not) versus open repair for patients with suspected ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm. Design  Randomised controlled trial. Setting  30 vascular centres (29 in UK, one in Canada), 2009-16. Participants  613 eligible patients (480 men) with a clinical diagnosis of ruptured aneurysm, of whom 502 underwent emergency repair for rupture. Interventions  316 patients were randomised to an endovascular strategy (275 with confirmed rupture) and 297 to open repair (261 with confirmed rupture). Main outcome measures  Mortality, with reinterventions after aneurysm repair, quality of life, and hospital costs to three years as secondary measures. Results  The maximum follow-up for mortality was 7.1 years, with two patients in each group lost to follow-up by three years. After similar mortality by 90 days, in the mid-term (three months to three years) there were fewer deaths in the endovascular than the open repair group (hazard ratio 0.57, 95% confidence interval 0.36 to 0.90), leading to lower mortality at three years (48% v 56%), but by seven years mortality was about 60% in each group (hazard ratio 0.92, 0.75 to 1.13). Results for the 502 patients with repaired ruptures were more pronounced: three year mortality was lower in the endovascular strategy group (42% v 54%; odds ratio 0.62, 0.43 to 0.88), but after seven years there was no clear difference between the groups (hazard ratio 0.86, 0.68 to 1.08). Reintervention rates up to three years were not significantly different between the randomised groups (hazard ratio 1.02, 0.79 to 1.32); the initial rapid rate of reinterventions was followed by a much slower mid-term reintervention rate in both groups. The early higher average quality of life in the endovascular strategy versus open repair group, coupled with the lower mortality at three years, led to a

Hazard evaluation of inorganics, singly and in mixtures, to Flannelmouth Sucker Catostomus latipinnis in the San Juan River, New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hamilton, S.J.; Buhl, K.J.

1997-01-01

Larval flannelmouth sucker (Catostomus latipinnis) were exposed to arsenate, boron, copper, molybdenum, selenate, selenite, uranium, vanadium, and zinc singly, and to five mixtures of five to nine inorganics. The exposures were conducted in reconstituted water representative of the San Juan River near Shiprock, New Mexico. The mixtures simulated environmental ratios reported for sites along the San Juan River (San Juan River backwater, Fruitland marsh, Hogback East Drain, Mancos River, and McElmo Creek). The rank order of the individual inorganics, from most to least toxic, was: copper > zinc > vanadium > selenite > selenate > arsenate > uranium > boron > molybdenum. All five mixtures exhibited additive toxicity to flannelmouth sucker. In a limited number of tests, 44-day-old and 13-day-old larvae exhibited no difference in sensitivity to three mixtures. Copper was the major toxic component in four mixtures (San Juan backwater, Hogback East Drain, Mancos River, and McElmo Creek), whereas zinc was the major toxic component in the Fruitland marsh mixture, which did not contain copper. The Hogback East Drain was the most toxic mixture tested. Comparison of 96-h LC50values with reported environmental water concentrations from the San Juan River revealed low hazard ratios for arsenic, boron, molybdenum, selenate, selenite, uranium, and vanadium, moderate hazard ratios for zinc and the Fruitland marsh mixture, and high hazard ratios for copper at three sites and four environmental mixtures representing a San Juan backwater, Hogback East Drain, Mancos River, and McElmo Creek. The high hazard ratios suggest that inorganic contaminants could adversely affect larval flannelmouth sucker in the San Juan River at four sites receiving elevated inorganics.

Simulation-Based Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis: Empirical and Robust Hazard Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Risi, Raffaele; Goda, Katsuichiro

2017-08-01

Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) is the prerequisite for rigorous risk assessment and thus for decision-making regarding risk mitigation strategies. This paper proposes a new simulation-based methodology for tsunami hazard assessment for a specific site of an engineering project along the coast, or, more broadly, for a wider tsunami-prone region. The methodology incorporates numerous uncertain parameters that are related to geophysical processes by adopting new scaling relationships for tsunamigenic seismic regions. Through the proposed methodology it is possible to obtain either a tsunami hazard curve for a single location, that is the representation of a tsunami intensity measure (such as inundation depth) versus its mean annual rate of occurrence, or tsunami hazard maps, representing the expected tsunami intensity measures within a geographical area, for a specific probability of occurrence in a given time window. In addition to the conventional tsunami hazard curve that is based on an empirical statistical representation of the simulation-based PTHA results, this study presents a robust tsunami hazard curve, which is based on a Bayesian fitting methodology. The robust approach allows a significant reduction of the number of simulations and, therefore, a reduction of the computational effort. Both methods produce a central estimate of the hazard as well as a confidence interval, facilitating the rigorous quantification of the hazard uncertainties.

Social vulnerability of rural households to flood hazards in western mountainous regions of Henan province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, D. L.; Li, Y.

2015-11-01

Evaluating social vulnerability is a crucial issue in risk and disaster management. In this study, a household social vulnerability index (HSVI) to flood hazards was developed and used to assess the social vulnerability of rural households in western mountainous regions of Henan province, China. Eight key indicators were indentified through interactive discussions with multidisciplinary specialists and local farmers, and their weights were determined using principle component analysis (PCA). The results showed that (1) the ratio of perennial working in other places, hazard-related training and illiteracy ratio (15+) were the most dominant factors to social vulnerability. (2) The numbers of high, moderate and low vulnerable households were 14, 64 and 16, respectively, which accounted for 14.9, 68.1, and 17.0 % of the total interviewed rural households, respectively. (3) The correlation coefficient between household social vulnerability scores and casualties in a storm flood in July 2010 was significant at 0.05 significance level (r = 0.248), which indicated that the selected indicators and their weights were valid. (4) Some mitigation strategies to reduce the household social vulnerability to flood hazards were proposed based on the assessment results. The results provide useful information for rural households and local governments to prepare, mitigate and response to flood hazards.

J-SHIS - an integrated system for knowing seismic hazard information in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azuma, H.; Fujiwara, H.; Kawai, S.; Hao, K. X.; Morikawa, N.

2015-12-01

An integrated system of Japan seismic hazard information station (J-SHIS) was established in 2005 for issuing and exchanging information of the National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan that are based on seismic hazard assessment (SHA). A simplified app, also named J-SHIS, for smartphones is popularly used in Japan based on the integrated system of http://www.j-shis.bosai.go.jp/map/?lang=en. "Smartphone tells hazard" is realized on a cellphone, a tablet and/or a PC. At a given spot, the comprehensive information of SHA map can be easily obtained as below: 1) A SHA probability at given intensity (JMA=5-, 5+, 6-, 6+) within 30 years. 2) A site amplification factor varies within 0.5 ~ 3.0 and expectation is 1 based on surface geology map information. 3) A depth of seismic basement down to ~3,000m based on deeper borehole and geological structure. 4) Scenario earthquake maps: By choosing an active fault, one got the average case for different parameters of the modeling. Then choose a case, you got the shaking map of intensity with color scale. "Seismic Hazard Karte tells more hazard" is another app based on website of http://www.j-shis.bosai.go.jp/labs/karte/. (1) For every mesh of 250m x 250m, professional service SHA information is provided over national-world. (2) With five ranks for eight items, comprehensive SHA information could be delivered. (3) Site amplification factor with an average index is given. (4) Deeper geologic structure modeling is provided with borehole profiling. (5) A SHA probability is assessed within 30 and/or 50 years for the given site. (6) Seismic Hazard curves are given for earthquake sources from inland active fault, subduction zone, undetermined and their summarization. (7) The JMA seismic intensities are assessed in long-term averaged periods of 500-years to ~100,000 years. The app of J-SHIS can be downloaded freely from http://www.j-shis.bosai.go.jp/app-jshis.

Detection ratios of riparian songbirds

Treesearch

Susan L. Earnst; Jeannie Heltzel

2005-01-01

This paper presents preliminary results from the first year of a two-year study designed to evaluate bias in a typical songbird survey by examining differences in detection ratios among species, cover types, and time of the season. Detection ratios, calculated as number of individuals detected during a 15-25 minute fixed-width transect survey divided by the number of...

Effect of glaucoma on eye movement patterns and laboratory-based hazard detection ability

PubMed Central

Black, Alex A.; Wood, Joanne M.

2017-01-01

Purpose The mechanisms underlying the elevated crash rates of older drivers with glaucoma are poorly understood. A key driving skill is timely detection of hazards; however, the hazard detection ability of drivers with glaucoma has been largely unexplored. This study assessed the eye movement patterns and visual predictors of performance on a laboratory-based hazard detection task in older drivers with glaucoma. Methods Participants included 30 older drivers with glaucoma (71±7 years; average better-eye mean deviation (MD) = −3.1±3.2 dB; average worse-eye MD = −11.9±6.2 dB) and 25 age-matched controls (72±7 years). Visual acuity, contrast sensitivity, visual fields, useful field of view (UFoV; processing speeds), and motion sensitivity were assessed. Participants completed a computerised Hazard Perception Test (HPT) while their eye movements were recorded using a desk-mounted Tobii TX300 eye-tracking system. The HPT comprises a series of real-world traffic videos recorded from the driver’s perspective; participants responded to road hazards appearing in the videos, and hazard response times were determined. Results Participants with glaucoma exhibited an average of 0.42 seconds delay in hazard response time (p = 0.001), smaller saccades (p = 0.010), and delayed first fixation on hazards (p<0.001) compared to controls. Importantly, larger saccades were associated with faster hazard responses in the glaucoma group (p = 0.004), but not in the control group (p = 0.19). Across both groups, significant visual predictors of hazard response times included motion sensitivity, UFoV, and worse-eye MD (p<0.05). Conclusions Older drivers with glaucoma had delayed hazard response times compared to controls, with associated changes in eye movement patterns. The association between larger saccades and faster hazard response time in the glaucoma group may represent a compensatory behaviour to facilitate improved performance. PMID:28570621

Seismic Landslide Hazard for the City of Berkeley, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miles, Scott B.; Keefer, David K.

2001-01-01

This map describes the possible hazard from earthquake-induced landslides for the city of Berkeley, CA. The hazard depicted by this map was modeled for a scenario corresponding to an M=7.1 earthquake on the Hayward, CA fault. This scenario magnitude is associated with complete rupture of the northern and southern segments of the Hayward fault, an event that has an estimated return period of about 500 years. The modeled hazard also corresponds to completely saturated ground-water conditions resulting from an extreme storm event or series of storm events. This combination of earthquake and ground-water scenarios represents a particularly severe state of hazard for earthquake-induced landslides. For dry ground-water conditions, overall hazard will be less, while relative patterns of hazard are likely to change. Purpose: The map is intended as a tool for regional planning. Any site-specific planning or analysis should be undertaken with the assistance of a qualified geotechnical engineer. This hazard map should not be used as a substitute to the State of California Seismic Hazard Zones map for the same area. (See California Department of Conservation, Division of Mines and Geology, 1999). As previously noted for maps of this type by Wieczorek and others (1985), this map should not be used as a basis to determine the absolute risk from seismically triggered landslides at any locality, as the sole justification for zoning or rezoning any parcel, for detailed design of any lifeline, for site-specific hazard-reduction planning, or for setting or modifying insurance rates.

Update of the USGS 2016 One-year Seismic Hazard Forecast for the Central and Eastern United States From Induced and Natural Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petersen, M. D.; Mueller, C. S.; Moschetti, M. P.; Hoover, S. M.; Llenos, A. L.; Ellsworth, W. L.; Michael, A. J.; Rubinstein, J. L.; McGarr, A.; Rukstales, K. S.

2016-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey released a 2016 one-year forecast for seismic hazard in the central and eastern U.S., which included the influence from both induced and natural earthquakes. This forecast was primarily based on 2015 declustered seismicity rates but also included longer-term rates, 10- and 20- km smoothing distances, earthquakes between Mw 4.7 and maximum magnitudes of 6.0 or 7.1, and 9 alternative ground motion models. Results indicate that areas in Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado, New Mexico, Arkansas, Texas, and the New Madrid Seismic Zone have a significant chance for damaging ground shaking levels in 2016 (greater than 1% chance of exceeding 0.12 PGA and MMI VI). We evaluate this one-year forecast by considering the earthquakes and ground shaking levels that occurred during the first half of 2016 (earthquakes not included in the forecast). During this period the full catalog records hundreds of events with M ≥ 3.0, but the declustered catalog eliminates most of these dependent earthquakes and results in much lower numbers of earthquakes. The declustered catalog based on USGS COMCAT indicates a M 5.1 earthquake occurred in the zone of highest hazard on the map. Two additional earthquakes of M ≥ 4.0 occurred in Oklahoma, and about 82 earthquakes of M ≥ 3.0 occurred with 77 in Oklahoma and Kansas, 4 in Raton Basin Colorado/New Mexico, and 1 near Cogdell Texas. In addition, 72 earthquakes occurred outside the zones of induced seismicity with more than half in New Madrid and eastern Tennessee. The catalog rates in the first half of 2016 and the corresponding seismic hazard were generally lower than in 2015. For example, the zones for Irving, Venus, and Fashing, Texas; Sun City, Kansas; and north-central Arkansas did not experience any earthquakes with M≥ 2.7 during this period. The full catalog rates were lower by about 30% in Raton Basin and the Oklahoma-Kansas zones but the declustered catalog rates did not drop as much. This decrease in earthquake

Comparison of five-year outcomes of coronary artery bypass grafting versus percutaneous coronary intervention in patients with left ventricular ejection fractions≤50% versus >50% (from the CREDO-Kyoto PCI/CABG Registry Cohort-2).

PubMed

Marui, Akira; Kimura, Takeshi; Nishiwaki, Noboru; Mitsudo, Kazuaki; Komiya, Tatsuhiko; Hanyu, Michiya; Shiomi, Hiroki; Tanaka, Shiro; Sakata, Ryuzo

2014-10-01

Coronary heart disease is a major risk factor for left ventricular (LV) systolic dysfunction. However, limited data are available regarding long-term benefits of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in the era of drug-eluting stent or coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in patients with LV systolic dysfunction with severe coronary artery disease. We identified 3,584 patients with 3-vessel and/or left main disease of 15,939 patients undergoing first myocardial revascularization enrolled in the CREDO-Kyoto PCI/CABG Registry Cohort-2. Of them, 2,676 patients had preserved LV systolic function, defined as an LV ejection fraction (LVEF) of >50% and 908 had impaired LV systolic function (LVEF≤50%). In patients with preserved LV function, 5-year outcomes were not different between PCI and CABG regarding propensity score-adjusted risk of all-cause and cardiac deaths. In contrast, in patients with impaired LV systolic function, the risks of all-cause and cardiac deaths after PCI were significantly greater than those after CABG (hazard ratio 1.49, 95% confidence interval 1.04 to 2.14, p=0.03 and hazard ratio 2.39, 95% confidence interval 1.43 to 3.98, p<0.01). In both patients with moderate (35%hazard ratio 2.25, 95% confidence interval 1.15 to 4.40, p=0.02 and hazard ratio 4.42, 95% confidence interval 1.48 to 13.24, p=0.01). Similarly, the risk of all-cause death tended to be greater after PCI than after CABG in both patients with moderate and severe LV systolic dysfunction without significant interaction (hazard ratio 1.57, 95% confidence interval 0.96 to 2.56, p=0.07 and hazard ratio 1.42, 95% confidence interval 0.71 to 2.82, p=0.32; interaction p=0.91). CABG was associated with better 5-year survival outcomes than PCI in patients with impaired LV systolic function (LVEF≤50%) with complex coronary disease in the era

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Ethiopia and the neighboring region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayele, Atalay

2017-10-01

Seismic hazard calculation is carried out for the Horn of Africa region (0°-20° N and 30°-50°E) based on the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) method. The earthquakes catalogue data obtained from different sources were compiled, homogenized to Mw magnitude scale and declustered to remove the dependent events as required by Poisson earthquake source model. The seismotectonic map of the study area that avails from recent studies is used for area sources zonation. For assessing the seismic hazard, the study area was divided into small grids of size 0.5° × 0.5°, and the hazard parameters were calculated at the center of each of these grid cells by considering contributions from all seismic sources. Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) corresponding to 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years were calculated for all the grid points using generic rock site with Vs = 760 m/s. Obtained values vary from 0.0 to 0.18 g and 0.0-0.35 g for 475 and 2475 return periods, respectively. The corresponding contour maps showing the spatial variation of PGA values for the two return periods are presented here. Uniform hazard response spectrum (UHRS) for 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years and hazard curves for PGA and 0.2 s spectral acceleration (Sa) all at rock site are developed for the city of Addis Ababa. The hazard map of this study corresponding to the 475 return periods has already been used to update and produce the 3rd generation building code of Ethiopia.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Northeast India Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, Ranjit; Sharma, M. L.; Wason, H. R.

2016-08-01

Northeast India bounded by latitudes 20°-30°N and longitudes 87°-98°E is one of the most seismically active areas in the world. This region has experienced several moderate-to-large-sized earthquakes, including the 12 June, 1897 Shillong earthquake ( M w 8.1) and the 15 August, 1950 Assam earthquake ( M w 8.7) which caused loss of human lives and significant damages to buildings highlighting the importance of seismic hazard assessment for the region. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the region has been carried out using a unified moment magnitude catalog prepared by an improved General Orthogonal Regression methodology (Geophys J Int, 190:1091-1096, 2012; Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Northeast India region, Ph.D. Thesis, Department of Earthquake Engineering, IIT Roorkee, Roorkee, 2013) with events compiled from various databases (ISC, NEIC,GCMT, IMD) and other available catalogs. The study area has been subdivided into nine seismogenic source zones to account for local variation in tectonics and seismicity characteristics. The seismicity parameters are estimated for each of these source zones, which are input variables into seismic hazard estimation of a region. The seismic hazard analysis of the study region has been performed by dividing the area into grids of size 0.1° × 0.1°. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration ( S a) values (for periods of 0.2 and 1 s) have been evaluated at bedrock level corresponding to probability of exceedance (PE) of 50, 20, 10, 2 and 0.5 % in 50 years. These exceedance values correspond to return periods of 100, 225, 475, 2475, and 10,000 years, respectively. The seismic hazard maps have been prepared at the bedrock level, and it is observed that the seismic hazard estimates show a significant local variation in contrast to the uniform hazard value suggested by the Indian standard seismic code [Indian standard, criteria for earthquake-resistant design of structures, fifth edition, Part

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of southern part of Ghana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahulu, Sylvanus T.; Danuor, Sylvester Kojo; Asiedu, Daniel K.

2018-05-01

This paper presents a seismic hazard map for the southern part of Ghana prepared using the probabilistic approach, and seismic hazard assessment results for six cities. The seismic hazard map was prepared for 10% probability of exceedance for peak ground acceleration in 50 years. The input parameters used for the computations of hazard were obtained using data from a catalogue that was compiled and homogenised to moment magnitude (Mw). The catalogue covered a period of over a century (1615-2009). The hazard assessment is based on the Poisson model for earthquake occurrence, and hence, dependent events were identified and removed from the catalogue. The following attenuation relations were adopted and used in this study—Allen (for south and eastern Australia), Silva et al. (for Central and eastern North America), Campbell and Bozorgnia (for worldwide active-shallow-crust regions) and Chiou and Youngs (for worldwide active-shallow-crust regions). Logic-tree formalism was used to account for possible uncertainties associated with the attenuation relationships. OpenQuake software package was used for the hazard calculation. The highest level of seismic hazard is found in the Accra and Tema seismic zones, with estimated peak ground acceleration close to 0.2 g. The level of the seismic hazard in the southern part of Ghana diminishes with distance away from the Accra/Tema region to a value of 0.05 g at a distance of about 140 km.

NHERI: Advancing the Research Infrastructure of the Multi-Hazard Community

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blain, C. A.; Ramirez, J. A.; Bobet, A.; Browning, J.; Edge, B.; Holmes, W.; Johnson, D.; Robertson, I.; Smith, T.; Zuo, D.

2017-12-01

The Natural Hazards Engineering Research Infrastructure (NHERI), supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF), is a distributed, multi-user national facility that provides the natural hazards research community with access to an advanced research infrastructure. Components of NHERI are comprised of a Network Coordination Office (NCO), a cloud-based cyberinfrastructure (DesignSafe-CI), a computational modeling and simulation center (SimCenter), and eight Experimental Facilities (EFs), including a post-disaster, rapid response research facility (RAPID). Utimately NHERI enables researchers to explore and test ground-breaking concepts to protect homes, businesses and infrastructure lifelines from earthquakes, windstorms, tsunamis, and surge enabling innovations to help prevent natural hazards from becoming societal disasters. When coupled with education and community outreach, NHERI will facilitate research and educational advances that contribute knowledge and innovation toward improving the resiliency of the nation's civil infrastructure to withstand natural hazards. The unique capabilities and coordinating activities over Year 1 between NHERI's DesignSafe-CI, the SimCenter, and individual EFs will be presented. Basic descriptions of each component are also found at https://www.designsafe-ci.org/facilities/. Additionally to be discussed are the various roles of the NCO in leading development of a 5-year multi-hazard science plan, coordinating facility scheduling and fostering the sharing of technical knowledge and best practices, leading education and outreach programs such as the recent Summer Institute and multi-facility REU program, ensuring a platform for technology transfer to practicing engineers, and developing strategic national and international partnerships to support a diverse multi-hazard research and user community.

Relation of Waist-Hip Ratio to Long-Term Cardiovascular Events in Patients With Coronary Artery Disease.

PubMed

Medina-Inojosa, Jose R; Batsis, John A; Supervia, Marta; Somers, Virend K; Thomas, Randal J; Jenkins, Sarah; Grimes, Chassidy; Lopez-Jimenez, Francisco

2018-04-15

We aimed to assess the association between measures of obesity and outcomes in coronary artery disease (CAD) patients. We included consecutive patients referred to cardiac rehabilitation for previous CAD events, who were classified using body mass index (BMI) groups and gender-specific tertiles of waist-to-hip ratio (WHR). Follow-up was ascertained using a population-based, record linkage system. Major cardiovascular event (MACE) was defined as the composite outcome including acute coronary syndromes, coronary revascularization, ventricular arrhythmias, stroke, or death from any cause. We used Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for potential confounders. The cohort included 1,529 patients (74% men), 63.1 ± 12.5 years (mean age ± SD), of whom 40% were obese by BMI. Eighty-eight percent of men and 57% of women were classified as having central obesity by WHR. Median follow-up was 5.7 years and 415 patients had MACE. After adjustment, a high WHR tertile was a significant predictor for MACE in women (hazard ratio [HR] 1.85, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.16, 2.94, p = 0.01) but not in men (HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.69, 1.22, p = 0.54). This relation in women persisted after further adjustment for BMI (HR 1.75, 95% CI 1.07, 2.87, p = 0.03). Obesity by BMI was not associated with MACE in either men (HR 1.07, 95% CI 0.76, 1.51, p = 0.69) or women (HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.62, 1.56, p = 0.95). In conclusion, WHR is associated with a higher risk of MACE among women with CAD but not in men. There was no obesity paradox when assessing obesity by BMI in patients with CAD when including nonfatal events. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Applied Prevalence Ratio estimation with different Regression models: An example from a cross-national study on substance use research.

PubMed

Espelt, Albert; Marí-Dell'Olmo, Marc; Penelo, Eva; Bosque-Prous, Marina

2016-06-14

To examine the differences between Prevalence Ratio (PR) and Odds Ratio (OR) in a cross-sectional study and to provide tools to calculate PR using two statistical packages widely used in substance use research (STATA and R). We used cross-sectional data from 41,263 participants of 16 European countries participating in the Survey on Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). The dependent variable, hazardous drinking, was calculated using the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test - Consumption (AUDIT-C). The main independent variable was gender. Other variables used were: age, educational level and country of residence. PR of hazardous drinking in men with relation to women was estimated using Mantel-Haenszel method, log-binomial regression models and poisson regression models with robust variance. These estimations were compared to the OR calculated using logistic regression models. Prevalence of hazardous drinkers varied among countries. Generally, men have higher prevalence of hazardous drinking than women [PR=1.43 (1.38-1.47)]. Estimated PR was identical independently of the method and the statistical package used. However, OR overestimated PR, depending on the prevalence of hazardous drinking in the country. In cross-sectional studies, where comparisons between countries with differences in the prevalence of the disease or condition are made, it is advisable to use PR instead of OR.

A Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Study of the Auckland Region, Part I: Propagation Modelling and Tsunami Hazard Assessment at the Shoreline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Power, William; Wang, Xiaoming; Lane, Emily; Gillibrand, Philip

2013-09-01

Regional source tsunamis represent a potentially devastating threat to coastal communities in New Zealand, yet are infrequent events for which little historical information is available. It is therefore essential to develop robust methods for quantitatively estimating the hazards posed, so that effective mitigation measures can be implemented. We develop a probabilistic model for the tsunami hazard posed to the Auckland region of New Zealand from the Kermadec Trench and the southern New Hebrides Trench subduction zones. An innovative feature of our model is the systematic analysis of uncertainty regarding the magnitude-frequency distribution of earthquakes in the source regions. The methodology is first used to estimate the tsunami hazard at the coastline, and then used to produce a set of scenarios that can be applied to produce probabilistic maps of tsunami inundation for the study region; the production of these maps is described in part II. We find that the 2,500 year return period regional source tsunami hazard for the densely populated east coast of Auckland is dominated by events originating in the Kermadec Trench, while the equivalent hazard to the sparsely populated west coast is approximately equally due to events on the Kermadec Trench and the southern New Hebrides Trench.

ThinkHazard!: an open-source, global tool for understanding hazard information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraser, Stuart; Jongman, Brenden; Simpson, Alanna; Nunez, Ariel; Deparday, Vivien; Saito, Keiko; Murnane, Richard; Balog, Simone

2016-04-01

Rapid and simple access to added-value natural hazard and disaster risk information is a key issue for various stakeholders of the development and disaster risk management (DRM) domains. Accessing available data often requires specialist knowledge of heterogeneous data, which are often highly technical and can be difficult for non-specialists in DRM to find and exploit. Thus, availability, accessibility and processing of these information sources are crucial issues, and an important reason why many development projects suffer significant impacts from natural hazards. The World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) is currently developing a new open-source tool to address this knowledge gap: ThinkHazard! The main aim of the ThinkHazard! project is to develop an analytical tool dedicated to facilitating improvements in knowledge and understanding of natural hazards among non-specialists in DRM. It also aims at providing users with relevant guidance and information on handling the threats posed by the natural hazards present in a chosen location. Furthermore, all aspects of this tool will be open and transparent, in order to give users enough information to understand its operational principles. In this presentation, we will explain the technical approach behind the tool, which translates state-of-the-art probabilistic natural hazard data into understandable hazard classifications and practical recommendations. We will also demonstrate the functionality of the tool, and discuss limitations from a scientific as well as an operational perspective.

Seismic hazard maps of Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central and South America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tanner, J.G.; Shedlock, K.M.

2004-01-01

The growth of megacities in seismically active regions around the world often includes the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures due to an insufficient knowledge of existing seismic hazard and/or economic constraints. Minimization of the loss of life, property damage, and social and economic disruption due to earthquakes depends on reliable estimates of seismic hazard. We have produced a suite of seismic hazard estimates for Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central and South America. One of the preliminary maps in this suite served as the basis for the Caribbean and Central and South America portion of the Global Seismic Hazard Map (GSHM) published in 1999, which depicted peak ground acceleration (pga) with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years for rock sites. Herein we present maps depicting pga and 0.2 and 1.0 s spectral accelerations (SA) with 50%, 10%, and 2% chances of exceedance in 50 years for rock sites. The seismicity catalog used in the generation of these maps adds 3 more years of data to those used to calculate the GSH Map. Different attenuation functions (consistent with those used to calculate the U.S. and Canadian maps) were used as well. These nine maps are designed to assist in global risk mitigation by providing a general seismic hazard framework and serving as a resource for any national or regional agency to help focus further detailed studies required for regional/local needs. The largest seismic hazard values in Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central and South America generally occur in areas that have been, or are likely to be, the sites of the largest plate boundary earthquakes. High hazard values occur in areas where shallow-to-intermediate seismicity occurs frequently. ?? 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fire hazard after prescribed burning in a gorse shrubland: implications for fuel management.

PubMed

Marino, Eva; Guijarro, Mercedes; Hernando, Carmen; Madrigal, Javier; Díez, Carmen

2011-03-01

Prescribed burning is commonly used to prevent accumulation of biomass in fire-prone shrubland in NW Spain. However, there is a lack of knowledge about the efficacy of the technique in reducing fire hazard in these ecosystems. Fire hazard in burned shrubland areas will depend on the initial capacity of woody vegetation to recover and on the fine ground fuels existing after fire. To explore the effect that time since burning has on fire hazard, experimental tests were performed with two fuel complexes (fine ground fuels and regenerated shrubs) resulting from previous prescribed burnings conducted in a gorse shrubland (Ulex europaeus L.) one, three and five years earlier. A point-ignition source was used in burning experiments to assess ignition and initial propagation success separately for each fuel complex. The effect of wind speed was also studied for shrub fuels, and several flammability parameters were measured. Results showed that both ignition and initial propagation success of fine ground fuels mainly depended on fuel depth and were independent of time since burning, although flammability parameters indicated higher fire hazard three years after burning. In contrast, time since burning increased ignition and initial propagation success of regenerated shrub fuels, as well as the flammability parameters assessed, but wind speed had no significant effect. The combination of results of fire hazard for fine ground fuels and regenerated shrubs according to the variation in relative coverage of each fuel type after prescribed burning enabled an assessment of integrated fire hazard in treated areas. The present results suggest that prescribed burning is a very effective technique to reduce fire hazard in the study area, but that fire hazard will be significantly increased by the third year after burning. These results are valuable for fire prevention and fuel management planning in gorse shrubland areas. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Why is Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) still used?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulargia, Francesco; Stark, Philip B.; Geller, Robert J.

2017-03-01

Even though it has never been validated by objective testing, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) has been widely used for almost 50 years by governments and industry in applications with lives and property hanging in the balance, such as deciding safety criteria for nuclear power plants, making official national hazard maps, developing building code requirements, and determining earthquake insurance rates. PSHA rests on assumptions now known to conflict with earthquake physics; many damaging earthquakes, including the 1988 Spitak, Armenia, event and the 2011 Tohoku, Japan, event, have occurred in regions relatively rated low-risk by PSHA hazard maps. No extant method, including PSHA, produces reliable estimates of seismic hazard. Earthquake hazard mitigation should be recognized to be inherently political, involving a tradeoff between uncertain costs and uncertain risks. Earthquake scientists, engineers, and risk managers can make important contributions to the hard problem of allocating limited resources wisely, but government officials and stakeholders must take responsibility for the risks of accidents due to natural events that exceed the adopted safety criteria.

Work hazards for an aging nursing workforce.

PubMed

Phillips, Jennan A; Miltner, Rebecca

2015-09-01

To discuss selected work hazards and safety concerns for aging nurses. Greater numbers of older nurses remain in the workforce. Projections suggest that one-third of the nursing workforce will be over age 50 years by 2015. Employers will struggle to find ways to protect the health and safety of their aging workforce and prevent a massive loss of intellectual and human resources when these experienced nurses exit the workforce. Review of recent relevant literature in English language journals. Repetitive motion injuries, fatigue and slips, trips and falls are three major work hazards older nurses face. We discuss several factors for each hazard, including: the normal physiological aging effects of diminished strength, hearing and vision; workplace variables of work schedules, noise and clutter; and personal characteristics of sleep disturbances, overexertion and fatigue. Inconclusive evidence exists to guide best practices for designing safe workplace environments and shift patterns for nursing work. There are at least two areas administrators can reduce work hazards for older workers: (1) modification of the workplace, and (2) creating the infrastructure to support the aging workforce to encourage healthy behaviours. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Geoelectric hazard maps for the Mid-Atlantic United States: 100 year extreme values and the 1989 magnetic storm

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, Jeffrey J.; Lucas, Greg M.; Kelbert, Anna; Bedrosian, Paul A.

2018-01-01

Maps of extreme value geoelectric field amplitude are constructed for the Mid‐Atlantic United States, a region with high population density and critically important power grid infrastructure. Geoelectric field time series for the years 1983–2014 are estimated by convolving Earth surface impedances obtained from 61 magnetotelluric survey sites across the Mid‐Atlantic with historical 1 min (2 min Nyquist) measurements of geomagnetic variation obtained from a nearby observatory. Statistical models are fitted to the maximum geoelectric amplitudes occurring during magnetic storms, and extrapolations made to estimate threshold amplitudes only exceeded, on average, once per century. For the Mid‐Atlantic region, 100 year geoelectric exceedance amplitudes have a range of almost 3 orders of magnitude (from 0.04 V/km at a site in southern Pennsylvania to 24.29 V/km at a site in central Virginia), and they have significant geographic granularity, all of which is due to site‐to‐site differences in magnetotelluric impedance. Maps of these 100 year exceedance amplitudes resemble those of the estimated geoelectric amplitudes attained during the March 1989 magnetic storm, and, in that sense, the March 1989 storm resembles what might be loosely called a “100 year” event. The geoelectric hazard maps reported here stand in stark contrast with the 100 year geoelectric benchmarks developed for the North American Electric Reliability Corporation.

Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio as an independent predictor for survival in patients with localized clear cell renal cell carcinoma after radiofrequency ablation: a propensity score matching analysis.

PubMed

Chang, Xiaofeng; Zhang, Fan; Liu, Tieshi; Wang, Wei; Guo, Hongqian

2017-06-01

To investigate the role of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio as a prognostic indicator in patients with localized clear cell renal cell carcinoma treated with radiofrequency ablation. We retrospectively analyzed data from patients with renal cell carcinoma who underwent radiofrequency ablation from 2006 to 2013. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to generate the survival curves according to different categories of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio. Relationships between preoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio or the change of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and survival were evaluated with multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. A propensity score matching analysis was carried out to avoid confounding bias. A total of 185 patients were included in present study. When stratified by preoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio cutoff value of 2.79, 5-year recurrence-free survival, 5-year disease-free survival, and 5-year overall survival rates of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio <2.79 versus ≥2.79 were 100, 98.5, and 99.2% versus 80.5, 72.6, and 90.6%, respectively (P < 0.001, P < 0.001, P = 0.003). In terms of propensity score matching analysis, 5-year recurrence-free survival, 5-year disease-free survival, and 5-year overall survival rates of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio <2.79 versus ≥2.79 were 100, 97.9, and 100% versus 82.3, 73.4, and 89.4%, respectively (P = 0.003, P = 0.001, P = 0.022). When combining preoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio with the change of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, patients with both preoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio ≥2.79 and the change of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio ≥0.40 had the worst disease-free survival. Results of multivariable analysis showed that preoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and the change of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio correlated with cancer relapse remarkably. High preoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and elevated postoperative neutrophil

Data Visualization of Invisible Airflow Hazards During Helicopter Takeoff and Landing Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aragon, Cecilia R.

2004-01-01

Many aircraft accidents each year are caused by encounters with unseen airflow hazards near the ground such as vortices, downdrafts, wind shear, microbursts, or other turbulence. While such hazards frequently pose problems to fixed-wing airplanes, they are especially dangerous to helicopters, which often have to operate in confined spaces and under operationally stressful conditions. We are developing flight-deck visualizations of airflow hazards during helicopter takeoff and landing operations, and are evaluating their effectiveness with usability studies. Our hope is.that this work will lead to the production of an airflow hazard detection system for pilots that will save lives.

Multi-Hazard Interactions in Guatemala

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gill, Joel; Malamud, Bruce D.

2017-04-01

In this paper, we combine physical and social science approaches to develop a multi-scale regional framework for natural hazard interactions in Guatemala. The identification and characterisation of natural hazard interactions is an important input for comprehensive multi-hazard approaches to disaster risk reduction at a regional level. We use five transdisciplinary evidence sources to organise and populate our framework: (i) internationally-accessible literature; (ii) civil protection bulletins; (iii) field observations; (iv) stakeholder interviews (hazard and civil protection professionals); and (v) stakeholder workshop results. These five evidence sources are synthesised to determine an appropriate natural hazard classification scheme for Guatemala (6 hazard groups, 19 hazard types, and 37 hazard sub-types). For a national spatial extent (Guatemala), we construct and populate a "21×21" hazard interaction matrix, identifying 49 possible interactions between 21 hazard types. For a sub-national spatial extent (Southern Highlands, Guatemala), we construct and populate a "33×33" hazard interaction matrix, identifying 112 possible interactions between 33 hazard sub-types. Evidence sources are also used to constrain anthropogenic processes that could trigger natural hazards in Guatemala, and characterise possible networks of natural hazard interactions (cascades). The outcomes of this approach are among the most comprehensive interaction frameworks for national and sub-national spatial scales in the published literature. These can be used to support disaster risk reduction and civil protection professionals in better understanding natural hazards and potential disasters at a regional scale.

Flood hazard mapping of Palembang City by using 2D model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farid, Mohammad; Marlina, Ayu; Kusuma, Muhammad Syahril Badri

2017-11-01

Palembang as the capital city of South Sumatera Province is one of the metropolitan cities in Indonesia that flooded almost every year. Flood in the city is highly related to Musi River Basin. Based on Indonesia National Agency of Disaster Management (BNPB), the level of flood hazard is high. Many natural factors caused flood in the city such as high intensity of rainfall, inadequate drainage capacity, and also backwater flow due to spring tide. Furthermore, anthropogenic factors such as population increase, land cover/use change, and garbage problem make flood problem become worse. The objective of this study is to develop flood hazard map of Palembang City by using two dimensional model. HEC-RAS 5.0 is used as modelling tool which is verified with field observation data. There are 21 sub catchments of Musi River Basin in the flood simulation. The level of flood hazard refers to Head Regulation of BNPB number 2 in 2012 regarding general guideline of disaster risk assessment. The result for 25 year return per iod of flood shows that with 112.47 km2 area of inundation, 14 sub catchments are categorized in high hazard level. It is expected that the hazard map can be used for risk assessment.

Seismic Hazard Legislation in California: Challenges and Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Testa, S. M.

2015-12-01

Seismic hazards in California are legislatively controlled by three specific Acts: the Field Act of 1933; the Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zoning Act (AP) of 1975; and the Seismic Hazards Mapping Act (SHMA) of 1980. The Field Act recognized the need for earthquake resistant construction for California schools and banned unreinforced masonry buildings, and imposed structural design under seismic conditions. The AP requires the California Geological Survey (CGS) to delineate "active fault zones" for general planning and mitigation by various state and local agencies. Under the AP, surface and near-surface faults are presumed active (about 11,000 years before present) unless proven otherwise; and can only be mitigated by avoidance (setback zones). The SHMA requires that earthquake-induced landslides, liquefaction zones, high ground accelerations, tsunamis and seiches similarly be demarcated on CGS-issued maps. Experience over the past ~45 years and related technological advances now show that more than ~95 percent of seismically induced damage and loss of life stems from high ground accelerations, from related ground deformation and from catastrophic structural failure, often far beyond State-mapped AP zones. The SHMA therefore enables the engineering community to mitigate natural hazards from a holistic standpoint that considers protection of public health, safety and welfare. In conformance with the SHMA, structural design and related planning and building codes focus on acceptable risk for natural hazards with a typical recurrence of ~100 yrs to a few thousand years. This contrasts with the current AP "total avoidance" for surface-fault rupture that may have occurred within the last 11,000 years. Accordingly, avoidance may be reasonable for well expressed surface faults in high-density urban areas or where relative fault activity is uncertain. However, in the interest of overall public, health and safety, and for consistency with the SHMA and

78 FR 69310 - Hazardous Materials Table, Special Provisions, Hazardous Materials Communications, Emergency...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-11-19

... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration 49 CFR Part 172 Hazardous Materials Table, Special Provisions, Hazardous Materials Communications, Emergency Response Information, Training Requirements, and Security Plans CFR Correction In Title 49 of the Code of...

Multi Hazard Assessment: The Azores Archipelagos (PT) case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aifantopoulou, Dorothea; Boni, Giorgio; Cenci, Luca; Kaskara, Maria; Kontoes, Haris; Papoutsis, Ioannis; Paralikidis, Sideris; Psichogyiou, Christina; Solomos, Stavros; Squicciarino, Giuseppe; Tsouni, Alexia; Xerekakis, Themos

2016-04-01

The COPERNICUS EMS Risk & Recovery Mapping (RRM) activity offers services to support efficient design and implementation of mitigation measures and recovery planning based on EO data exploitation. The Azores Archipelagos case was realized in the context of the FWC 259811 Copernicus EMS RRM, and provides potential impact information for a number of natural disasters. The analysis identified population and assets at risk (infrastructures and environment). The risk assessment was based on hazard and vulnerability of structural elements, road network characteristics, etc. Integration of different hazards and risks was accounted in establishing the necessary first response/ first aid infrastructure. EO data (Pleiades and WV-2), were used to establish a detailed background information, common for the assessment of the whole of the risks. A qualitative Flood hazard level was established, through a "Flood Susceptibility Index" that accounts for upstream drainage area and local slope along the drainage network (Manfreda et al. 2014). Indicators, representing different vulnerability typologies, were accounted for. The risk was established through intersecting hazard and vulnerability (risk- specific lookup table). Probabilistic seismic hazards maps (PGA) were obtained by applying the Cornell (1968) methodology as implemented in CRISIS2007 (Ordaz et al. 2007). The approach relied on the identification of potential sources, the assessment of earthquake recurrence and magnitude distribution, the selection of ground motion model, and the mathematical model to calculate seismic hazard. Lava eruption areas and a volcanic activity related coefficient were established through available historical data. Lava flow paths and their convergence were estimated through applying a cellular, automata based, Lava Flow Hazard numerical model (Gestur Leó Gislason, 2013). The Landslide Hazard Index of NGI (Norwegian Geotechnical Institute) for heavy rainfall (100 year extreme monthly rainfall

Is High Serum LDL/HDL Cholesterol Ratio an Emerging Risk Factor for Sudden Cardiac Death? Findings from the KIHD Study.

PubMed

Kunutsor, Setor K; Zaccardi, Francesco; Karppi, Jouni; Kurl, Sudhir; Laukkanen, Jari A

2017-06-01

Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c), which are components of total cholesterol, have each been suggested to be linked to the risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD). However, the relationship between LDL-c/HDL-c ratio and the risk of SCD has not been previously investigated. We aimed to assess the associations of LDL-c, HDL-c, and the ratio of LDL-c/HDL-c with the risk of SCD. Serum lipoprotein concentrations were assessed at baseline in the Finnish Kuopio Ischemic Heart Disease prospective cohort study of 2,616 men aged 42-61 years at recruitment. Hazard ratios (HRs) (95% confidence intervals [CI]) were assessed. During a median follow-up of 23.0 years, a total of 228 SCDs occurred. There was no significant evidence of an association of LDL-c or HDL-c with the risk of SCD. In analyses adjusted for age, examination year, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, years of education, diabetes, previous myocardial infarction, family history of coronary heart disease, and serum high sensitivity C-reactive protein, there was approximately a two-fold increase in the risk of SCD (HR 1.94, 95% CI 1.21-3.11; p=0.006), comparing the top (＞4.22) versus bottom (≤2.30) quintile of serum LDL-c/HDL-c ratio. In this middle-aged male population, LDL-c or HDL-c was not associated with the risk of SCD. However, a high serum LDL-c/HDL-c ratio was found to be independently associated with an increased risk of SCD. Further research is warranted to understand the mechanistic pathways underlying this association.

Probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Sinai Peninsula, Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deif, A.; Abou Elenean, K.; El Hadidy, M.; Tealeb, A.; Mohamed, A.

2009-09-01

Sinai experienced the largest Egyptian earthquake with moment magnitude (Mw) 7.2 in 1995 in the Gulf of Aqaba, 350 km from Cairo. It is characterized by the presence of many tourist projects in addition to different natural resources. The aim of the current study is to present, for the first time, the probabilistic spectral hazard maps for Sinai. Revised earthquake catalogues for Sinai and its surroundings, from 112 BC to 2006 AD with magnitude equal or greater than 3.0, are used to calculate seismic hazard in the region of interest between 27°N and 31.5°N and 32°E and 36°E. We declustered these catalogues to include only independent events. The catalogues were tested for the completeness of different magnitude ranges. 28 seismic source zones are used to define the seismicity. The recurrence rates and the maximum earthquakes across these zones were also determined from these modified catalogues. Strong ground motion relations for rock are used to produce 5% damped spectral acceleration values for four different periods (0.2, 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 s) to define the uniform response spectra at each site (grid of 0.2° × 0.2° all over the area). Maps showing spectral acceleration values at 0.2, 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 s periods as well as peak ground acceleration (PGA) for the return period of 475 years (equivalent to 90% probability on non-exceedence in 50 years) are presented. In addition, Uniform Hazard Spectra (UHS) at 25 different periods for the four main cities (Hurghda, Sharm El-Sheikh, Nuweibaa and Suez) are graphed. The highest hazard is found in the Gulf of Aqaba with maximum spectral accelerations 356 cm s-2 at a period of 0.22 s for a return period of 475 years.

Probabilistic seismic hazard zonation for the Cuban building code update

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, J.; Llanes-Buron, C.

2013-05-01

A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment has been performed in response to a revision and update of the Cuban building code (NC-46-99) for earthquake-resistant building construction. The hazard assessment have been done according to the standard probabilistic approach (Cornell, 1968) and importing the procedures adopted by other nations dealing with the problem of revising and updating theirs national building codes. Problems of earthquake catalogue treatment, attenuation of peak and spectral ground acceleration, as well as seismic source definition have been rigorously analyzed and a logic-tree approach was used to represent the inevitable uncertainties encountered through the whole seismic hazard estimation process. The seismic zonation proposed here, is formed by a map where it is reflected the behaviour of the spectral acceleration values for short (0.2 seconds) and large (1.0 seconds) periods on rock conditions with a 1642 -year return period, which being considered as maximum credible earthquake (ASCE 07-05). In addition, other three design levels are proposed (severe earthquake: with a 808 -year return period, ordinary earthquake: with a 475 -year return period and minimum earthquake: with a 225 -year return period). The seismic zonation proposed here fulfils the international standards (IBC-ICC) as well as the world tendencies in this thematic.

Digital Data for Volcano Hazards in the Mount Jefferson Region, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schilling, S.P.; Doelger, S.; Walder, J.S.; Gardner, C.A.; Conrey, R.M.; Fisher, B.J.

2008-01-01

Mount Jefferson has erupted repeatedly for hundreds of thousands of years, with its last eruptive episode during the last major glaciation which culminated about 15,000 years ago. Geologic evidence shows that Mount Jefferson is capable of large explosive eruptions. The largest such eruption occurred between 35,000 and 100,000 years ago. If Mount Jefferson erupts again, areas close to the eruptive vent will be severely affected, and even areas tens of kilometers (tens of miles) downstream along river valleys or hundreds of kilometers (hundreds of miles) downwind may be at risk. Numerous small volcanoes occupy the area between Mount Jefferson and Mount Hood to the north, and between Mount Jefferson and the Three Sisters region to the south. These small volcanoes tend not to pose the far-reaching hazards associated with Mount Jefferson, but are nonetheless locally important. A concern at Mount Jefferson, but not at the smaller volcanoes, is the possibility that small-to-moderate sized landslides could occur even during periods of no volcanic activity. Such landslides may transform as they move into lahars (watery flows of rock, mud, and debris) that can inundate areas far downstream. The geographic information system (GIS) volcano hazard data layer used to produce the Mount Jefferson volcano hazard map in USGS Open-File Report 99-24 (Walder and others, 1999) is included in this data set. Both proximal and distal hazard zones were delineated by scientists at the Cascades Volcano Observatory and depict various volcano hazard areas around the mountain.

Assessing Natural Hazard Vulnerability Through Marmara Region Using GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabuncu, A.; Garagon Dogru, A.; Ozener, H.

2013-12-01

Natural hazards are natural phenomenon occured in the Earth's system that include geological and meteorological events such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, droughts, fires and tsunamis. The metropolitan cities are vulnerable to natural hazards due to their population densities, industrial facilities and proporties. The urban layout of the megacities are complex since industrial facilities are interference with residential area. The Marmara region is placed in North-western Turkey suffered from natural hazards (earthquakes, floods etc.) for years. After 1999 Kocaeli and Duzce earthquakes and 2009 Istanbul flash floods, dramatic number of casualities and economic losses were reported by the authorities. Geographic information systems (GIS) have substantial capacity in order to develop natural disaster management. As these systems provide more efficient and reliable analysis and evaluation of the data in the management, and also convenient and better solutions for the decision making before during and after the natural hazards. The Earth science data and socio-economic data can be integrated into a GIS as different layers. Additionally, satellite data are used to understand the changes pre and post the natural hazards. GIS is a powerful software for the combination of different type of digital data. A natural hazard database for the Marmara region provides all different types of digital data to the users. All proper data collection processing and analysing are critical to evaluate and identify hazards. The natural hazard database allows users to monitor, analyze and query past and recent disasters in the Marmara Region. The long term aim of this study is to develop geodatabase and identify the natural hazard vulnerabilities of the metropolitan cities.

Runoff inundation hazard cartography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pineux, N.; Degré, A.

2012-04-01

Between 1998 and 2004, Europe suffered from more than hundred major inundations, responsible for some 700 deaths, for the moving of about half a million of people and the economic losses of at least 25 billions Euros covered by the insurance policies. Within this context, EU launched the 2007/60/CE directive. The inundations are natural phenomenon. They cannot be avoided. Nevertheless this directive permits to better evaluate the risks and to coordinate the management measures taken at member states level. In most countries, inundation maps only include rivers' overflowing. In Wallonia, overland flows and mudflows also cause huge damages, and must be included in the flood hazard map. Indeed, the cleaning operations for a village can lead to an estimated cost of 11 000 €. Average construction cost of retention dams to control off-site damage caused by floods and muddy flows was valued at 380 000€, and yearly dredging costs associated with these retention ponds at 15 000€. For a small city for which a study was done in a more specific way (Gembloux), the mean annual cost for the damages that can generate the runoff is about 20 000€. This cost consists of the physical damages caused to the real estate and movable properties of the residents as well as the emergency operations of the firemen and the city. On top of damages to public infrastructure (clogging of trenches, silting up of retention ponds) and to private property by muddy flows, runoff generates a significant loss of arable land. Yet, the soil resource is not an unlimited commodity. Moreover, sediments' transfer to watercourses alters their physical and chemical quality. And that is not to mention the increased psychological stress for people. But to map overland flood and mud flow hazard is a real challenge. This poster will present the methodology used to in Wallonia. The methodology is based on 3 project rainfalls: 25, 50 and 100 years return period (consistency with the cartography of the

Migration and Environmental Hazards

PubMed Central

Hunter, Lori M.

2011-01-01

Losses due to natural hazards (e.g., earthquakes, hurricanes) and technological hazards (e.g., nuclear waste facilities, chemical spills) are both on the rise. One response to hazard-related losses is migration, with this paper offering a review of research examining the association between migration and environmental hazards. Using examples from both developed and developing regional contexts, the overview demonstrates that the association between migration and environmental hazards varies by setting, hazard types, and household characteristics. In many cases, however, results demonstrate that environmental factors play a role in shaping migration decisions, particularly among those most vulnerable. Research also suggests that risk perception acts as a mediating factor. Classic migration theory is reviewed to offer a foundation for examination of these associations. PMID:21886366

Declining Effectiveness of Herpes Zoster Vaccine in Adults Aged ≥60 Years.

PubMed

Tseng, Hung Fu; Harpaz, Rafael; Luo, Yi; Hales, Craig M; Sy, Lina S; Tartof, Sara Y; Bialek, Stephanie; Hechter, Rulin C; Jacobsen, Steven J

2016-06-15

Understanding long-term effectiveness of herpes zoster (HZ) vaccine is critical for determining vaccine policy. 176 078 members of Kaiser Permanente ≥60 years vaccinated with HZ vaccine and three matched unvaccinated members were included. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) associated with vaccination at each year following vaccination were estimated by Cox regression model. The effectiveness of HZ vaccine decreased from 68.7% (95% CI, 66.3%-70.9%) in the first year to 4.2% (95% CI, -24.0% to 25.9%) in the eighth year. This rapid decline in effectiveness of HZ vaccine suggests that a revaccination strategy may be needed, if feasible. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

The Role of Plasma Triglyceride/High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Ratio to Predict New Cardiovascular Events in Essential Hypertensive Patients.

PubMed

Turak, Osman; Afşar, Barış; Ozcan, Fırat; Öksüz, Fatih; Mendi, Mehmet Ali; Yayla, Çagrı; Covic, Adrian; Bertelsen, Nathan; Kanbay, Mehmet

2016-08-01

Triglyceride (TG) to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio (TG/HDL-C) has been suggested as a simple method to identify unfavorable cardiovascular outcomes in the general population. The effect of the TG/HDL-C ratio on essential hypertensive patients is unclear. About 900 consecutive essential hypertensive patients (mean age 52.9±12.6 years, 54.2% male) who visited our outpatient hypertension clinic were analyzed. Participants were divided into quartiles based on baseline TG/HDL-C ratio and medical records were obtained periodically for the occurrence of fatal events and composite major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) including transient ischemic attack, stroke, aortic dissection, acute coronary syndrome, and death. Participants were followed for a median of 40 months (interquartile range, 35-44 months). Overall, a higher quartile of TG/HDL-C ratio at baseline was significantly linked with higher incidence of fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular events. Using multivariate Cox regression analysis, plasma TG/HDL-C ratio was independently associated with increased risk of fatal events (hazard ratio [HR], 1.25; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13-1.37; P≤.001] and MACEs (HR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.06-1.21; P≤.001). Increased plasma TG/HDL-C ratio was associated with more fatal events and MACEs in essential hypertensive patients. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Effects of HUD-supported lead hazard control interventions in housing on children's blood lead.

PubMed

Clark, Scott; Galke, Warren; Succop, Paul; Grote, Joann; McLaine, Pat; Wilson, Jonathan; Dixon, Sherry; Menrath, William; Roda, Sandy; Chen, Mei; Bornschein, Robert; Jacobs, David

2011-02-01

The Evaluation of the US Department of Housing and Urban Development Lead-Based Paint Hazard Control Grant Program studied the effectiveness of the housing intervention performed in reducing the blood lead of children at four post-intervention times (6-months, 1-year, 2-years, and 3-years). A repeat measures analysis showed that blood lead levels declined up to three-years post-intervention. The results at each successive collection time were significantly lower than at the previous post-intervention time except for the difference between the levels at two and three years. At two-years post-intervention, geometric mean blood lead levels were approximately 37% lower than at pre-intervention. Children with pre-intervention blood lead levels as low as 10 μg/dL experienced substantial declines in blood lead levels. Previous studies have found substantial improvements only if a child's pre-intervention blood lead level was above 20 μg/dL. Individual interior lead hazard control treatments as grouped by Interior Strategy were not a significant predictor of post-intervention blood lead levels. However, children living in dwellings where exterior lead hazard control interventions were done had lower blood lead levels at one-year post-intervention than those living in dwellings without the exterior interventions (all other factors being equal), but those differences were only significant when the mean exterior paint lead loading at pre-intervention was about the 90th percentile (7.0mg/cm(2)). This observation suggests that exterior lead hazard control can be an important component of a lead hazard control plan. Children who were six to eleven months of age at pre-intervention had a significant increase in blood lead at one-year post-intervention, probably due to other exposures. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Revision of Time-Independent Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps for Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wesson, Robert L.; Boyd, Oliver S.; Mueller, Charles S.; Bufe, Charles G.; Frankel, Arthur D.; Petersen, Mark D.

2007-01-01

We present here time-independent probabilistic seismic hazard maps of Alaska and the Aleutians for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 second spectral acceleration at probability levels of 2 percent in 50 years (annual probability of 0.000404), 5 percent in 50 years (annual probability of 0.001026) and 10 percent in 50 years (annual probability of 0.0021). These maps represent a revision of existing maps based on newly obtained data and assumptions reflecting best current judgments about methodology and approach. These maps have been prepared following the procedures and assumptions made in the preparation of the 2002 National Seismic Hazard Maps for the lower 48 States. A significant improvement relative to the 2002 methodology is the ability to include variable slip rate along a fault where appropriate. These maps incorporate new data, the responses to comments received at workshops held in Fairbanks and Anchorage, Alaska, in May, 2005, and comments received after draft maps were posted on the National Seismic Hazard Mapping Web Site. These maps will be proposed for adoption in future revisions to the International Building Code. In this documentation we describe the maps and in particular explain and justify changes that have been made relative to the 1999 maps. We are also preparing a series of experimental maps of time-dependent hazard that will be described in future documents.

40 CFR 270.66 - Permits for boilers and industrial furnaces burning hazardous waste.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... blended, and blending ratios. (3) A detailed engineering description of the boiler or industrial furnace... 40 Protection of Environment 27 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Permits for boilers and industrial... PROGRAM Special Forms of Permits § 270.66 Permits for boilers and industrial furnaces burning hazardous...

40 CFR 270.66 - Permits for boilers and industrial furnaces burning hazardous waste.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... blended, and blending ratios. (3) A detailed engineering description of the boiler or industrial furnace... 40 Protection of Environment 28 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Permits for boilers and industrial... PROGRAM Special Forms of Permits § 270.66 Permits for boilers and industrial furnaces burning hazardous...

40 CFR 270.66 - Permits for boilers and industrial furnaces burning hazardous waste.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... blended, and blending ratios. (3) A detailed engineering description of the boiler or industrial furnace... 40 Protection of Environment 28 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Permits for boilers and industrial... PROGRAM Special Forms of Permits § 270.66 Permits for boilers and industrial furnaces burning hazardous...

40 CFR 270.66 - Permits for boilers and industrial furnaces burning hazardous waste.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... blended, and blending ratios. (3) A detailed engineering description of the boiler or industrial furnace... 40 Protection of Environment 27 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Permits for boilers and industrial... PROGRAM Special Forms of Permits § 270.66 Permits for boilers and industrial furnaces burning hazardous...

40 CFR 270.66 - Permits for boilers and industrial furnaces burning hazardous waste.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... blended, and blending ratios. (3) A detailed engineering description of the boiler or industrial furnace... 40 Protection of Environment 26 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Permits for boilers and industrial... PROGRAM Special Forms of Permits § 270.66 Permits for boilers and industrial furnaces burning hazardous...

Seismic hazard map of North and Central America and the Caribbean

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shedlock, K.M.

1999-01-01

Minimization of the loss of life, property damage, and social and economic disruption due to earthquakes depends on reliable estimates of seismic hazard. National, state, and local government, decision makers, engineers, planners, emergency response organizations, builders, universities, and the general public require seismic hazard estimates for land use planning, improved building design and construction (including adoption of building construction codes), emergency response preparedness plans, economic forecasts, housing and employment decisions, and many more types of risk mitigation. The seismic hazard map of North and Central America and the Caribbean is the concatenation of various national and regional maps, involving a suite of approaches. The combined maps and documentation provide a useful regional seismic hazard framework and serve as a resource for any national or regional agency for further detailed studies applicable to their needs. This seismic hazard map depicts Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years. PGA, a short-period ground motion parameter that is proportional to force, is the most commonly mapped ground motion parameter because current building codes that include seismic provisions specify the horizontal force a building should be able to withstand during an earthquake. This seismic hazard map of North and Central America and the Caribbean depicts the likely level of short-period ground motion from earthquakes in a fifty-year window. Short-period ground motions effect short-period structures (e.g., one-to-two story buildings). The highest seismic hazard values in the region generally occur in areas that have been, or are likely to be, the sites of the largest plate boundary earthquakes.

Publications of the Volcano Hazards Program 1997

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nathenson, Manuel

1998-01-01

The Volcano Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is part of the Geologic Hazards Assessments subactivity as funded by Congressional appropriation. Investigations are carried out in the Geologic and Water Resources Divisions of the USGS and with cooperators at the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, University of Utah, and University of Washington Geophysics Program. This report lists publications from all these institutions. This report contains only published papers and maps; numerous abstracts produced for presentations at scientific meetings have not been included. Publications are included based on date of publication with no attempt to assign them to Fiscal Year.

Influence of behavioral biases on the assessment of multi-hazard risks and the implementation of multi-hazard risks mitigation measures: case study of multi-hazard cyclone shelters in Tamil Nadu, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komendantova, Nadejda; Patt, Anthony

2013-04-01

In December 2004, a multiple hazards event devastated the Tamil Nadu province of India. The Sumatra -Andaman earthquake with a magnitude of Mw=9.1-9.3 caused the Indian Ocean tsunami with wave heights up to 30 m, and flooding that reached up to two kilometers inland in some locations. More than 7,790 persons were killed in the province of Tamil Nadu, with 206 in its capital Chennai. The time lag between the earthquake and the tsunami's arrival in India was over an hour, therefore, if a suitable early warning system existed, a proper means of communicating the warning and shelters existing for people would exist, than while this would not have prevented the destruction of infrastructure, several thousands of human lives would have been saved. India has over forty years of experience in the construction of cyclone shelters. With additional efforts and investment, these shelters could be adapted to other types of hazards such as tsunamis and flooding, as well as the construction of new multi-hazard cyclone shelters (MPCS). It would therefore be possible to mitigate one hazard such as cyclones by the construction of a network of shelters while at the same time adapting these shelters to also deal with, for example, tsunamis, with some additional investment. In this historical case, the failure to consider multiple hazards caused significant human losses. The current paper investigates the patterns of the national decision-making process with regards to multiple hazards mitigation measures and how the presence of behavioral and cognitive biases influenced the perceptions of the probabilities of multiple hazards and the choices made for their mitigation by the national decision-makers. Our methodology was based on the analysis of existing reports from national and international organizations as well as available scientific literature on behavioral economics and natural hazards. The results identified several biases in the national decision-making process when the

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Iraq

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Onur, Tuna; Gok, Rengin; Abdulnaby, Wathiq

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments (PSHA) form the basis for most contemporary seismic provisions in building codes around the world. The current building code of Iraq was published in 1997. An update to this edition is in the process of being released. However, there are no national PSHA studies in Iraq for the new building code to refer to for seismic loading in terms of spectral accelerations. As an interim solution, the new draft building code was considering to refer to PSHA results produced in the late 1990s as part of the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP; Giardini et al.,more » 1999). However these results are: a) more than 15 years outdated, b) PGA-based only, necessitating rough conversion factors to calculate spectral accelerations at 0.3s and 1.0s for seismic design, and c) at a probability level of 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years, not the 2% that the building code requires. Hence there is a pressing need for a new, updated PSHA for Iraq.« less

EFFECT OF LIQUID TO SOLID RATIO ON LEACHING OF METALS FROM MINERAL PROCESSING WASTE

EPA Science Inventory

Various anthropogenic activities generate hazardous solid wastes that are affluent in heavy metals, which can cause significant damage to the environment an human health. A mineral processing waste was used to study the effect of liquid to solid ratio (L/S) on the leaching behav...

Intermediate Pause at Daytime Is Associated With Increased Cardiovascular Risk and Mortality: An 8-Year Cohort Study.

PubMed

Liu, Chih-Min; Lin, Chin-Yu; Chang, Shih-Lin; Lin, Yenn-Jiang; Lo, Li-Wei; Hu, Yu-Feng; Chao, Tze-Fan; Chung, Fa-Po; Tuan, Ta-Chuan; Liao, Jo-Nan; Chen, Yun-Yu; Te, Abigail Louise D; Yamada, Shinya; Kuo, Ling; Li, Hsing-Yuan; Chang, Ting-Yung; Minh, Hoang Quang; Salim, Simon; Ba, Vu Van; Vicera, Jennifer Jeanne B; Wu, Cheng-I; Chuang, Chieh-Mao; Huang, Ting-Chung; Hsieh, Yu-Cheng; Chen, Shih-Ann

2018-06-12

Long-term cardiovascular risk in patients with intermediate pauses remains unclear. Whether asymptomatic patients with intermediate pauses have increased future cardiovascular events remains unknown. We hypothesize that intermediate pause is associated with increased cardiovascular risk and mortality. We retrospectively analyzed 5291 patients who have pauses of <3 seconds on 24-hour Holter monitoring. Patients with pauses of 2 to 3 seconds constitute the intermediate pause patients, who are further divided into daytime pause (8:00 am-8:00 pm), nighttime pause (8:00 pm-8:00 am), and daytime plus nighttime pause groups depending on the occurring time of the pauses. The rest of the patients (pause <2 seconds) are the no pause group. The multivariate Cox hazards regression model was used to assess the hazard ratio for mortality (primary outcome) and adverse cardiovascular events (secondary outcome). There were 4859 (91.8%) patients in no pause, 248 (4.7%) in nighttime pause, 103 (1.9%) in daytime pause, and 81 (1.5%) in daytime plus nighttime pause groups. After a follow-up of 8.8±1.7 years' follow-up, 343 (6.5%) patients died. The risk for adverse cardiovascular events, including all-cause hospitalization, cardiovascular-cause hospitalization, pacemaker implantation, new-onset atrial fibrillation/heart failure, and transient ischemic attack, were higher in daytime pause and nighttime pause patients than those in the no pause group. Daytime pause (hazard ratio, 2.35; P =0.008) and daytime plus nighttime pause (hazard ratio, 2.26; P =0.016) patients have a higher mortality rate than that in nighttime pause. Patients with intermediate pause are associated with increased cardiovascular risk. Intermediate pauses occurring at daytime have a higher mortality rate than that at nighttime during long-term follow-up. © 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

High-resolution marine flood modelling coupling overflow and overtopping processes: framing the hazard based on historical and statistical approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicolae Lerma, Alexandre; Bulteau, Thomas; Elineau, Sylvain; Paris, François; Durand, Paul; Anselme, Brice; Pedreros, Rodrigo

2018-01-01

A modelling chain was implemented in order to propose a realistic appraisal of the risk in coastal areas affected by overflowing as well as overtopping processes. Simulations are performed through a nested downscaling strategy from regional to local scale at high spatial resolution with explicit buildings, urban structures such as sea front walls and hydraulic structures liable to affect the propagation of water in urban areas. Validation of the model performance is based on hard and soft available data analysis and conversion of qualitative to quantitative information to reconstruct the area affected by flooding and the succession of events during two recent storms. Two joint probability approaches (joint exceedance contour and environmental contour) are used to define 100-year offshore conditions scenarios and to investigate the flood response to each scenario in terms of (1) maximum spatial extent of flooded areas, (2) volumes of water propagation inland and (3) water level in flooded areas. Scenarios of sea level rise are also considered in order to evaluate the potential hazard evolution. Our simulations show that for a maximising 100-year hazard scenario, for the municipality as a whole, 38 % of the affected zones are prone to overflow flooding and 62 % to flooding by propagation of overtopping water volume along the seafront. Results also reveal that for the two kinds of statistic scenarios a difference of about 5 % in the forcing conditions (water level, wave height and period) can produce significant differences in terms of flooding like +13.5 % of water volumes propagating inland or +11.3 % of affected surfaces. In some areas, flood response appears to be very sensitive to the chosen scenario with differences of 0.3 to 0.5 m in water level. The developed approach enables one to frame the 100-year hazard and to characterize spatially the robustness or the uncertainty over the results. Considering a 100-year scenario with mean sea level rise (0.6 m), hazard

UNSAFE SEXUAL BEHAVIOUR ASSOCIATED WITH HAZARDOUS ALCOHOL USE AMONG STREET-INVOLVED YOUTH

PubMed Central

Fairbairn, Nadia; Wood, Evan; Dong, Huiru; Kerr, Thomas; DeBeck, Kora

2016-01-01

While risky sexual behaviours related to illicit drug use among street youth have been explored, the impacts of alcohol use have received less attention. This longitudinal study examined hazardous alcohol use among a population of street-involved youth, with particular attention to sexual and drug-related risk behaviours. Data were derived from the At-Risk Youth Study, a prospective cohort of street-involved youth in Vancouver, Canada. The outcome of interest was hazardous alcohol use defined by the US National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism. We used generalized estimating equations (GEEs) analyses to identify factors associated with hazardous alcohol use. Between 2005 and 2014, 1149 drug-using youth were recruited and 629 (55%) reported hazardous alcohol use in the previous 6 months during study follow-up. In multivariable GEE analyses, unprotected sex (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.28, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 1.12–1.46) and homelessness (AOR = 1.35, 95% CI = 1.19–1.54) were independently associated with hazardous alcohol use (all p < .001). Older age (AOR = 0.95, 95% CI = 0.92–0.99), Caucasian ethnicity (AOR = 0.74, 95% CI = 0.61–0.90), daily heroin use (AOR = 0.53, 95% CI = 0.42– 0.67), daily crack cocaine smoking (AOR = 0.73, 95% CI = 0.59–0.91), and daily crystal methamphetamine use (AOR = 0.52, 95% CI = 0.42–0.64) were negatively associated with hazardous alcohol use (all p < .05). In sub-analysis, consistent dose–response patterns were observed between levels of alcohol use and unprotected sex, homelessness, and daily heroin injection. In sum, hazardous alcohol use was positively associated with unsafe sexual behaviour and negatively associated with high-intensity drug use. Interventions to address hazardous alcohol use should be central to HIV prevention efforts for street-involved youth. PMID:27539676

76 FR 4276 - Hazardous Materials: Improving the Safety of Railroad Transportation of Hazardous Materials

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-01-25

...-0004] Hazardous Materials: Improving the Safety of Railroad Transportation of Hazardous Materials... hazardous materials program. DATES: The public meeting will be held on Tuesday, February 22, 2011, starting...--Hazardous Materials, FRA Office of Safety Assurance and Compliance, at least 4 business days before the date...

The Association between Triglyceride/High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Ratio and All-Cause Mortality in Acute Coronary Syndrome after Coronary Revascularization

PubMed Central

Wan, Ke; Zhao, Jianxun; Huang, Hao; Zhang, Qing; Chen, Xi; Zeng, Zhi; Zhang, Li; Chen, Yucheng

2015-01-01

Aims High triglycerides (TG) and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) are cardiovascular risk factors. A positive correlation between elevated TG/HDL-C ratio and all-cause mortality and cardiovascular events exists in women. However, utility of TG to HDL-C ratio for prediction is unknown among acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Methods Fasting lipid profiles, detailed demographic data, and clinical data were obtained at baseline from 416 patients with ACS after coronary revascularization. Subjects were stratified into three levels of TG/HDL-C. We constructed multivariate Cox-proportional hazard models for all-cause mortality over a median follow-up of 3 years using log TG to HDL-C ratio as a predictor variable and analyzing traditional cardiovascular risk factors. We constructed a logistic regression model for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) to prove that the TG/HDL-C ratio is a risk factor. Results The subject’s mean age was 64 ± 11 years; 54.5% were hypertensive, 21.8% diabetic, and 61.0% current or prior smokers. TG/HDL-C ratio ranged from 0.27 to 14.33. During the follow-up period, there were 43 deaths. In multivariate Cox models after adjusting for age, smoking, hypertension, diabetes, and severity of angiographic coronary disease, patients in the highest tertile of ACS had a 5.32-fold increased risk of mortality compared with the lowest tertile. After adjusting for conventional coronary heart disease risk factors by the logistic regression model, the TG/HDL-C ratio was associated with MACEs. Conclusion The TG to HDL-C ratio is a powerful independent predictor of all-cause mortality and is a risk factor of cardiovascular events. PMID:25880982

Triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio predicts cardiovascular outcomes in prevalent dialysis patients.

PubMed

Chen, Hung-Yuan; Tsai, Wan-Chuan; Chiu, Yen-Ling; Hsu, Shih-Ping; Pai, Mei-Fen; Yang, Ju-Yeh; Peng, Yu-Sen

2015-03-01

Triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL-C) ratio, an indicator of atherogenic dyslipidemia, is a predictor of cardiovascular (CV) outcomes in the general population and has been correlated with atherosclerotic events. Whether the TG/HDL-C ratio can predict CV outcomes and survival in dialysis patients is unknown. We performed this prospective, observational cohort study and enrolled 602 dialysis patients (539 hemodialysis and 63 peritoneal dialysis) from a single center in Taiwan followed up for a median of 3.9 years. The outcomes were the occurrence of CV events, CV death, and all-cause mortality during follow-up. The association of baseline TG/HDL-C ratio with outcomes was explored with Cox regression models, which were adjusted for demographic parameters and inflammatory/nutritional markers. Overall, 203 of the patients experienced CV events and 169 patients died, of whom 104 died due to CV events. Two hundred fifty-four patients reached the composite CV outcome. Patients with higher TG/HDL-C levels (quintile 5) had a higher incidence of CV events (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 2.03, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.19-3.47), CV mortality (adjusted HR 1.91, 95% CI 1.07-3.99), composite CV outcome (adjusted HR 2.2, 95% CI 1.37-3.55), and all-cause mortality (adjusted HR 1.94, 95% CI 1.1-3.39) compared with the patients in quintile 1. However, in diabetic dialysis patients, the TG/HDL-C ratio did not predict the outcomes. The TG/HDL-C ratio is a reliable and easily accessible predictor to evaluate CV outcomes and survival in prevalent nondiabetic dialysis patients. ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01457625.

Antiretroviral Regimens and CD4/CD8 Ratio Normalization in HIV-Infected Patients during the Initial Year of Treatment: A Cohort Study

PubMed Central

De Salvador-Guillouët, F.; Sakarovitch, C.; Durant, J.; Risso, K.; Demonchy, E.; Roger, P. M.; Fontas, E.

2015-01-01

Background As CD4/CD8 ratio inversion has been associated with non-AIDS morbidity and mortality, predictors of ratio normalization after cART need to be studied. Here, we aimed to investigate the association of antiretroviral regimens with CD4/CD8 ratio normalization within an observational cohort. Methods We selected, from a French cohort at the Nice University Hospital, HIV-1 positive treatment-naive patients who initiated cART between 2000 and 2011 with a CD4/CD8 ratio <1. Association between cART and ratio normalization (>1) in the first year was assessed using multivariate logistic regression models. Specific association with INSTI-containing regimens was examined. Results 567 patients were included in the analyses; the median CD4/CD8 ratio was 0.36. Respectively, 52.9%, 29.6% and 10.4% initiated a PI-based, NNRTI-based or NRTI-based cART regimens. About 8% of the population started an INSTI-containing regimen. 62 (10.9%) patients achieved a CD4/CD8 ratio ≥1 (N group). cART regimen was not associated with normalization when coded as PI-, NNRTI- or NRTI-based regimen. However, when considering INSTI-containing regimens alone, there was a strong association with normalization [OR, 7.67 (2.54–23.2)]. Conclusions Our findings suggest an association between initiation of an INSTI-containing regimen and CD4/CD8 ratio normalization at one year in naïve patients. Should it be confirmed in a larger population, it would be another argument for their use as first-line regimen as it is recommended in the recent update of the “Guidelines for the Use of Antiretroviral Agents in HIV-1-Infected Adults and Adolescents”. PMID:26485149

Hazardous waste management at the local level; The Anchorage, Alaska experience

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wigglesworth, D.

1989-07-01

The need to manage hazardous wastes in the municipality of Anchorage, Alaska, has become increasingly evident in recent years. A task force, representing a broad cross-section of the community, was appointed by the mayor to develop a waste management plan that would address community concerns. Between 1984 and 1986, the Anchorage Hazardous Waste Task Force, supported by municipal staff, local consultants and volunteers from the community developed a plan emphasizing local responsibility and pollution prevention, using management capabilities and technical assistance. This paper describes the development of a non-regulatory hazardous waste management program in Anchorage, Alaska. Plan elements, program fundingmore » and the key role of the local Hazardous Waste Task Force are discussed.« less

[Occupational biological hazard in veterinary medicine: an area for priority interventions].

PubMed

Cediel, Natalia M; Villamil, Luis C

2004-01-01

Veterinary medicine is an activity related to several health hazards; during the last years, studies about the biological hazard associated to animals have been conducted, such hazards represented by the zoonotic diseases and the allergic reactions in exposed workers. Despite its importance, in Colombia the knowledge about the occupational biohazard is scarce, its magnitude is overlooked and in addition a passive attitude from practitioners exists. The few research spaces available and the scattered actions for its prevention, influence directly on the workers' health, on the quality of the services offered and obviously on the quality of life in society. The present article discusses the causes and consequences of biological hazards in veterinary medicine, shows a panorama of the national problem and contributes with alternatives for its solutions.

Five-year outcomes in patients with left main disease treated with either percutaneous coronary intervention or coronary artery bypass grafting in the synergy between percutaneous coronary intervention with taxus and cardiac surgery trial.

PubMed

Morice, Marie-Claude; Serruys, Patrick W; Kappetein, A Pieter; Feldman, Ted E; Ståhle, Elisabeth; Colombo, Antonio; Mack, Michael J; Holmes, David R; Choi, James W; Ruzyllo, Witold; Religa, Grzegorz; Huang, Jian; Roy, Kristine; Dawkins, Keith D; Mohr, Friedrich

2014-06-10

Current guidelines recommend coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) when treating significant de novo left main coronary artery (LM) stenosis; however, percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) has a class IIa indication for unprotected LM disease in selected patients. This analysis compares 5-year clinical outcomes in PCI- and CABG-treated LM patients in the Synergy Between PCI With Taxus and Cardiac Surgery (SYNTAX) trial, the largest trial in this group to date. The SYNTAX trial randomly assigned 1800 patients with LM or 3-vessel disease to receive either PCI (with TAXUS Express paclitaxel-eluting stents) or CABG. The unprotected LM cohort (N=705) was predefined and powered. Major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular event rates at 5 years was 36.9% in PCI patients and 31.0% in CABG patients (hazard ratio, 1.23 [95% confidence interval, 0.95-1.59]; P=0.12). Mortality rate was 12.8% and 14.6% in PCI and CABG patients, respectively (hazard ratio, 0.88 [95% confidence interval, 0.58-1.32]; P=0.53). Stroke was significantly increased in the CABG group (PCI 1.5% versus CABG 4.3%; hazard ratio, 0.33 [95% confidence interval, 0.12-0.92]; P=0.03) and repeat revascularization in the PCI arm (26.7% versus 15.5%; hazard ratio, 1.82 [95% confidence interval, 1.28-2.57]; P<0.01). Major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events were similar between arms in patients with low/intermediate SYNTAX scores but significantly increased in PCI patients with high scores (≥33). At 5 years, no difference in overall major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events was found between treatment groups. PCI-treated patients had a lower stroke but a higher revascularization rate versus CABG. These results suggest that both treatments are valid options for LM patients. The extent of disease should accounted for when choosing between surgery and PCI, because patients with high SYNTAX scores seem to benefit more from surgery compared with those in the lower tertiles. http

A complete electrical shock hazard classification system and its application

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gordon, Lloyd; Cartelli, Laura; Graham, Nicole

Current electrical safety standards evolved to address the hazards of 60-Hz power that are faced primarily by electricians, linemen, and others performing facility and utility work. As a result, this leaves a substantial gap in the management of electrical hazards in Research and Development (R&D) and specialized high voltage and high power equipment. We find substantial use of direct current (dc) electrical energy, and the use of capacitors, inductors, batteries, and radiofrequency (RF) power. The electrical hazards of these forms of electricity and their systems are different than for 50/60 Hz power. This paper proposes a method of classifying allmore » of the electrical shock hazards found in all types of R&D and utilization equipment. Examples of the variation of these hazards from NFPA 70E include (a) high voltage can be harmless, if the available current is sufficiently low, (b) low voltage can be harmful if the available current/power is high, (c) high voltage capacitor hazards are unique and include severe reflex action, affects on the heart, and tissue damage, and (d) arc flash hazard analysis for dc and capacitor systems are not provided in existing standards. This work has led to a comprehensive electrical hazard classification system that is based on various research conducted over the past 100 years, on analysis of such systems in R&D, and on decades of experience. Lastly, the new comprehensive electrical shock hazard classification system uses a combination of voltage, shock current available, fault current available, power, energy, and waveform to classify all forms of electrical hazards.« less

A complete electrical shock hazard classification system and its application

DOE PAGES

Gordon, Lloyd; Cartelli, Laura; Graham, Nicole

2018-02-08

Current electrical safety standards evolved to address the hazards of 60-Hz power that are faced primarily by electricians, linemen, and others performing facility and utility work. As a result, this leaves a substantial gap in the management of electrical hazards in Research and Development (R&D) and specialized high voltage and high power equipment. We find substantial use of direct current (dc) electrical energy, and the use of capacitors, inductors, batteries, and radiofrequency (RF) power. The electrical hazards of these forms of electricity and their systems are different than for 50/60 Hz power. This paper proposes a method of classifying allmore » of the electrical shock hazards found in all types of R&D and utilization equipment. Examples of the variation of these hazards from NFPA 70E include (a) high voltage can be harmless, if the available current is sufficiently low, (b) low voltage can be harmful if the available current/power is high, (c) high voltage capacitor hazards are unique and include severe reflex action, affects on the heart, and tissue damage, and (d) arc flash hazard analysis for dc and capacitor systems are not provided in existing standards. This work has led to a comprehensive electrical hazard classification system that is based on various research conducted over the past 100 years, on analysis of such systems in R&D, and on decades of experience. Lastly, the new comprehensive electrical shock hazard classification system uses a combination of voltage, shock current available, fault current available, power, energy, and waveform to classify all forms of electrical hazards.« less

Volcano Hazards Program

USGS Publications Warehouse

Venezky, Dina Y.; Myers, Bobbie; Driedger, Carolyn

2008-01-01

Diagram of common volcano hazards. The U.S. Geological Survey Volcano Hazards Program (VHP) monitors unrest and eruptions at U.S. volcanoes, assesses potential hazards, responds to volcanic crises, and conducts research on how volcanoes work. When conditions change at a monitored volcano, the VHP issues public advisories and warnings to alert emergency-management authorities and the public. See http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/ to learn more about volcanoes and find out what's happening now.

Fault specific GIS based seismic hazard maps for the Attica region, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deligiannakis, G.; Papanikolaou, I. D.; Roberts, G.

2018-04-01

Traditional seismic hazard assessment methods are based on the historical seismic records for the calculation of an annual probability of exceedance for a particular ground motion level. A new fault-specific seismic hazard assessment method is presented, in order to address problems related to the incompleteness and the inhomogeneity of the historical records and to obtain higher spatial resolution of hazard. This method is applied to the region of Attica, which is the most densely populated area in Greece, as nearly half of the country's population lives in Athens and its surrounding suburbs, in the Greater Athens area. The methodology is based on a database of 24 active faults that could cause damage to Attica in case of seismic rupture. This database provides information about the faults slip rates, lengths and expected magnitudes. The final output of the method is four fault-specific seismic hazard maps, showing the recurrence of expected intensities for each locality. These maps offer a high spatial resolution, as they consider the surface geology. Despite the fact that almost half of the Attica region lies on the lowest seismic risk zone according to the official seismic hazard zonation of Greece, different localities have repeatedly experienced strong ground motions during the last 15 kyrs. Moreover, the maximum recurrence for each intensity occurs in different localities across Attica. Highest recurrence for intensity VII (151-156 times over 15 kyrs, or up to a 96 year return period) is observed in the central part of the Athens basin. The maximum intensity VIII recurrence (115 times over 15 kyrs, or up to a 130 year return period) is observed in the western part of Attica, while the maximum intensity IX (73-77/15 kyrs, or a 195 year return period) and X (25-29/15 kyrs, or a 517 year return period) recurrences are observed near the South Alkyonides fault system, which dominates the strong ground motions hazard in the western part of the Attica mainland.

Hazard assessment of inorganics to three endangered fish in the Green River, Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hamilton, S.J.

1995-01-01

Acute toxicity tests were conducted with three life stages of Colorado squawfish (Ptychocheilus lucius), razorback sucker (Xyrauchen texanus), and bonytail (Gila elegans) in a reconstituted water quality simulating the middle part of the Green River of Utah. Tests were conducted with boron, lithium, selenate, selenite, uranium, vanadium, and zinc. The overall rank order of toxicity to all species and life stages combined from most to least toxic was vanadium = zinc > selenite > lithium = uranium > selenate > boron. There was no difference between the three species in their sensitivity to the seven inorganics based on a rank-order evaluation at the species level. Colorado squawfish were 2-5 times more sensitive to selenate and selenite at the swimup life stage than older stages, whereas razorback suckers displayed equal sensitivity among life stages. Bonytail exhibited equal sensitivity to selenite, but were five times more sensitive to selenate at the swimup life stage than the older stages. Comparison of 96-hr LC50 values with a limited number of environmental water concentrations in Ashley Creek, Utah, which receives irrigation drainwater, revealed moderate hazard ratios for boron, selenate, selenite, and zinc, low hazard ratios for uranium and vanadium, but unknown ratios for lithium. These inorganic contaminants in drainwaters may adversely affect endangered fish in the Green River.

The situation of hazardous chemical accidents in China between 2000 and 2006.

PubMed

Duan, Weili; Chen, Guohua; Ye, Qing; Chen, Qingguang

2011-02-28

From the aspects of the total quantity of accidents, regional inequality, enterprises scale and environmental pollution accidents, this study makes an analysis of hazardous chemical accidents in China for the period spanning from 2000 to 2006. The following results are obtained: firstly, there were lots of accidents and fatalities in hazardous chemical business, i.e., the number of casualty accidents fluctuated between 200 and 600/year, the number of fatality fluctuated between 220 and 1100/year. Secondly, the accident rate in developed southeast coastal areas, e.g., Guangdong, Zhejiang and Jiangsu, was far higher than that in the northwest regions, e.g., Xizang, Xinjiang, and Qinghai. Thirdly, nearly 80% of dangerous chemical accidents had occurred in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Finally, various sudden environmental pollution accidents resulted from hazardous chemicals were frequent in recent years, causing a huge damage to human and property. Then, based on the readjustment of economic structure in the last decades, the development status of Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) in SMEs and other factors, the paper explores the main causes, which offers valuable insight into measures that should be taken to reduce hazardous chemical accidents. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Site specific probabilistic seismic hazard analysis at Dubai Creek on the west coast of UAE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shama, Ayman A.

2011-03-01

A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) was conducted to establish the hazard spectra for a site located at Dubai Creek on the west coast of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The PSHA considered all the seismogenic sources that affect the site, including plate boundaries such as the Makran subduction zone, the Zagros fold-thrust region and the transition fault system between them; and local crustal faults in UAE. PSHA indicated that local faults dominate the hazard. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) for the 475-year return period spectrum is 0.17 g and 0.33 g for the 2,475-year return period spectrum. The hazard spectra are then employed to establish rock ground motions using the spectral matching technique.

Introduction: Hazard mapping

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baum, Rex L.; Miyagi, Toyohiko; Lee, Saro; Trofymchuk, Oleksandr M

2014-01-01

Twenty papers were accepted into the session on landslide hazard mapping for oral presentation. The papers presented susceptibility and hazard analysis based on approaches ranging from field-based assessments to statistically based models to assessments that combined hydromechanical and probabilistic components. Many of the studies have taken advantage of increasing availability of remotely sensed data and nearly all relied on Geographic Information Systems to organize and analyze spatial data. The studies used a range of methods for assessing performance and validating hazard and susceptibility models. A few of the studies presented in this session also included some element of landslide risk assessment. This collection of papers clearly demonstrates that a wide range of approaches can lead to useful assessments of landslide susceptibility and hazard.

Hazardous waste incinerators under waste uncertainty: balancing and throughput maximization via heat recuperation.

PubMed

Tsiliyannis, Christos Aristeides

2013-09-01

Hazardous waste incinerators (HWIs) differ substantially from thermal power facilities, since instead of maximizing energy production with the minimum amount of fuel, they aim at maximizing throughput. Variations in quantity or composition of received waste loads may significantly diminish HWI throughput (the decisive profit factor), from its nominal design value. A novel formulation of combustion balance is presented, based on linear operators, which isolates the wastefeed vector from the invariant combustion stoichiometry kernel. Explicit expressions for the throughput are obtained, in terms of incinerator temperature, fluegas heat recuperation ratio and design parameters, for an arbitrary number of wastes, based on fundamental principles (mass and enthalpy balances). The impact of waste variations, of recuperation ratio and of furnace temperature is explicitly determined. It is shown that in the presence of waste uncertainty, the throughput may be a decreasing or increasing function of incinerator temperature and recuperation ratio, depending on the sign of a dimensionless parameter related only to the uncertain wastes. The dimensionless parameter is proposed as a sharp a' priori waste 'fingerprint', determining the necessary increase or decrease of manipulated variables (recuperation ratio, excess air, auxiliary fuel feed rate, auxiliary air flow) in order to balance the HWI and maximize throughput under uncertainty in received wastes. A 10-step procedure is proposed for direct application subject to process capacity constraints. The results may be useful for efficient HWI operation and for preparing hazardous waste blends. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long term volcanic hazard analysis in the Canary Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becerril, L.; Galindo, I.; Laín, L.; Llorente, M.; Mancebo, M. J.

2009-04-01

Historic volcanism in Spain is restricted to the Canary Islands, a volcanic archipelago formed by seven volcanic islands. Several historic eruptions have been registered in the last five hundred years. However, and despite the huge amount of citizens and tourist in the archipelago, only a few volcanic hazard studies have been carried out. These studies are mainly focused in the developing of hazard maps in Lanzarote and Tenerife islands, especially for land use planning. The main handicap for these studies in the Canary Islands is the lack of well reported historical eruptions, but also the lack of data such as geochronological, geochemical or structural. In recent years, the use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and the improvement in the volcanic processes modelling has provided an important tool for volcanic hazard assessment. Although this sophisticated programs are really useful they need to be fed by a huge amount of data that sometimes, such in the case of the Canary Islands, are not available. For this reason, the Spanish Geological Survey (IGME) is developing a complete geo-referenced database for long term volcanic analysis in the Canary Islands. The Canarian Volcanic Hazard Database (HADA) is based on a GIS helping to organize and manage volcanic information efficiently. HADA includes the following groups of information: (1) 1:25.000 scale geologic maps, (2) 1:25.000 topographic maps, (3) geochronologic data, (4) geochemical data, (5) structural information, (6) climatic data. Data must pass a quality control before they are included in the database. New data are easily integrated in the database. With the HADA database the IGME has started a systematic organization of the existing data. In the near future, the IGME will generate new information to be included in HADA, such as volcanological maps of the islands, structural information, geochronological data and other information to assess long term volcanic hazard analysis. HADA will permit

Combustible dusts: a serious industrial hazard.

PubMed

Joseph, Giby

2007-04-11

After investigating three fatal explosions in manufacturing plants, the U.S. Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board (CSB) has concluded: The explosive hazard of combustible dust is not well known, and helping industry to understand this hazard is a priority. Prompted by these three incidents in North Carolina, Kentucky and Indiana and the need to increase the hazard awareness, CSB is conducting a study to examine the nature and scope of dust explosion risks in industry and to identify initiatives that may be necessary to more effectively prevent combustible dust fires and explosions. Such initiatives may include regulatory action, voluntary consensus standards, or other measures that could be taken by industry, labor, government, and other parties. A critical task of the dust study is analyzing past incidents to determine the severity of the problem within industry. The analysis is focusing on the number of incidents, injuries and fatalities, industrial sectors affected, and regulatory oversight. This paper presents the preliminary findings from CSBs analysis of combustible dust incidents over the past 25 years. This paper has not been approved by the Board and is published for general informational purposes only. Every effort has been made to accurately present the contents of any Board-approved report mentioned in this paper. Any material in the paper that did not originate in a Board-approved report is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not represent an official finding, conclusion, or position of the Board.

Multi-hazards risk assessment at different levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frolova, N.; Larionov, V.; Bonnin, J.

2012-04-01

Natural and technological disasters are becoming more frequent and devastating. Social and economic losses due to those events increase annually, which is definitely in relation with evolution of society. Natural hazards identification and analysis, as well natural risk assessment taking into account secondary technological accidents are the first steps in prevention strategy aimed at saving lives and protecting property against future events. The paper addresses methodological issues of natural and technological integrated risk assessment and mapping at different levels [1, 2]. At the country level the most hazardous natural processes, which may results in fatalities, injuries and economic loss in the Russian Federation, are considered. They are earthquakes, landslides, mud flows, floods, storms, avalanches. The special GIS environment for the country territory was developed which includes information about hazards' level and reoccurrence, an impact databases for the last 20 years, as well as models for estimating damage and casualties caused by these hazards. Federal maps of seismic individual and collective risk, as well as multi-hazards natural risk maps are presented. The examples of regional seismic risk assessment taking into account secondary accidents at fire, explosion and chemical hazardous facilities and regional integrated risk assessment are given for the earthquake prone areas of the Russian Federation. The paper also gives examples of loss computations due to scenario earthquakes taking into account accidents trigged by strong events at critical facilities: fire and chemical hazardous facilities, including oil pipe lines routes located in the earthquake prone areas. The estimations of individual seismic risk obtained are used by EMERCOM of the Russian Federation, as well as by other federal and local authorities, for planning and implementing preventive measures, aimed at saving lives and protecting property against future disastrous events. The

Publications of the Volcano Hazards Program 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nathenson, Manuel

2007-01-01

The Volcano Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is part of the Geologic Hazards Assessments subactivity as funded by Congressional appropriation. Investigations are carried out in the Geology and Hydrology Disciplines of the USGS and with cooperators at the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, University of Hawaii Hilo, University of Utah, and University of Washington Geophysics Program. This report lists publications from all these institutions. This report contains only published papers and maps; numerous abstracts produced for presentations at scientific meetings have not been included. Publications are included based on date of publication with no attempt to assign them to Fiscal Year.

Publications of the Volcano Hazards Program 2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nathenson, Manuel

2004-01-01

The Volcano Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is part of the Geologic Hazards Assessments subactivity as funded by Congressional appropriation. Investigations are carried out in the Geology and Hydrology Disciplines of the USGS and with cooperators at the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, University of Hawaii Hilo, University of Utah, and University of Washington Geophysics Program. This report lists publications from all these institutions. This report contains only published papers and maps; numerous abstracts produced for presentations at scientific meetings have not been included. Publications are included based on date of publication with no attempt to assign them to Fiscal Year.

Publications of the Volcano Hazards Program 2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nathenson, Manuel

2008-01-01

The Volcano Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is part of the Geologic Hazards Assessments subactivity as funded by Congressional appropriation. Investigations are carried out in the Geology and Hydrology Disciplines of the USGS and with cooperators at the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, University of Hawaii Hilo, University of Utah, and University of Washington Geophysics Program. This report lists publications from all these institutions. This report contains only published papers and maps; numerous abstracts produced for presentations at scientific meetings have not been included. Publications are included based on date of publication with no attempt to assign them to Fiscal Year.

Publications of the Volcano Hazards Program 2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nathenson, Manuel

2009-01-01

The Volcano Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is part of the Geologic Hazards Assessments subactivity as funded by Congressional appropriation. Investigations are carried out in the Geology and Hydrology Disciplines of the USGS and with cooperators at the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, University of Hawaii Hilo, University of Utah, and University of Washington Geophysics Program. This report lists publications from all these institutions. This report contains only published papers and maps; numerous abstracts produced for presentations at scientific meetings have not been included. Publications are included based on date of publication with no attempt to assign them to Fiscal Year.

Publications of the Volcano Hazards Program 2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nathenson, Manuel

2006-01-01

The Volcano Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is part of the Geologic Hazards Assessments subactivity as funded by Congressional appropriation. Investigations are carried out in the Geology and Hydrology Disciplines of the USGS and with cooperators at the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, University of Hawaii Hilo, University of Utah, and University of Washington Geophysics Program. This report lists publications from all these institutions. This bibliographic report contains only published papers and maps; numerous abstracts produced for presentations at scientific meetings have not been included. Publications are included based on date of publication with no attempt to assign them to Fiscal Year.

Publications of the Volcano Hazards Program 2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nathenson, Manuel

2002-01-01

The Volcano Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is part of the Geologic Hazards Assessments subactivity as funded by Congressional appropriation. Investigations are carried out in the Geology and Hydrology Disciplines of the USGS and with cooperators at the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, University of Hawaii Hilo, University of Utah, and University of Washington Geophysics Program. This report lists publications from all these institutions. This report contains only published papers and maps; numerous abstracts produced for presentations at scientific meetings have not been included. Publications are included based on date of publication with no attempt to assign them to Fiscal Year.

Publications of the Volcano Hazards Program 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nathenson, Manuel

2010-01-01

The Volcano Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is part of the Geologic Hazards Assessments subactivity as funded by Congressional appropriation. Investigations are carried out in the Geology and Hydrology Disciplines of the USGS and with cooperators at the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, University of Hawaii Manoa and Hilo, University of Utah, and University of Washington Geophysics Program. This report lists publications from all these institutions. This report contains only published papers and maps; numerous abstracts produced for presentations at scientific meetings have not been included. Publications are included based on date of publication with no attempt to assign them to Fiscal Year.

The Effectiveness of Culture-Directed Preemptive Anti-Aspergillus Treatment in Lung Transplant Recipients at One Year After Transplant.

PubMed

Hosseini-Moghaddam, Seyed M; Chaparro, Cecilia; Luong, Me-Linh; Azad, Sassan; Singer, Lianne G; Mazzulli, Tony; Rotstein, Coleman; Keshavjee, Shaf; Husain, Shahid

2015-11-01

Invasive pulmonary aspergillosis (IPA) is a significant complication after lung transplantation. However, the risk factors for IPA in patients colonized with Aspergillus species, and the effectiveness of culture-directed preemptive treatment, are not well known. We studied 328 lung transplant recipients, from January 2006 to July 2009, with 1-year follow-up. Risk factors and effectiveness of culture-directed preemptive treatment were evaluated via a Cox-proportional hazard model. Seventy-one recipients (21.6%) developed invasive fungal infections, including 29 patients (8.8%) with IPA. Only 48.3% (14/29) of patients with IPA had pretransplantation or posttransplantation airway colonization with Aspergillus spp. In the Cox-proportional hazard model, treatment with rabbit antithymocyte globulin was significantly associated with posttransplant IPA in patients with Aspergillus colonization (hazards ratio, 4.25; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-16.6). Preemptive antifungal treatment for 3 months was significantly associated with a lower rate of IPA (0% [0/36] vs 18% [14/77]; P = 0.003, odds ratio, 0.8; 95% confidence interval, 0.7-0.9) but did not impact mortality. Our data suggest that almost half the cases of IPA occurred in patients without pretransplantation or posttransplantation airway colonization with Aspergillus spp. Among patients with Aspergillus colonization, use of rabbit antithymocyte globulin was associated with 4-fold risk of subsequent development of IPA. Invasive pulmonary aspergillosis was an independent risk factor for 1-year mortality. Use of preemptive antifungal treatment for 3 months may be associated with significant reduction of IPA without influencing mortality.

Volcanic hazards to airports

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guffanti, M.; Mayberry, G.C.; Casadevall, T.J.; Wunderman, R.

2009-01-01

Volcanic activity has caused significant hazards to numerous airports worldwide, with local to far-ranging effects on travelers and commerce. Analysis of a new compilation of incidents of airports impacted by volcanic activity from 1944 through 2006 reveals that, at a minimum, 101 airports in 28 countries were affected on 171 occasions by eruptions at 46 volcanoes. Since 1980, five airports per year on average have been affected by volcanic activity, which indicates that volcanic hazards to airports are not rare on a worldwide basis. The main hazard to airports is ashfall, with accumulations of only a few millimeters sufficient to force temporary closures of some airports. A substantial portion of incidents has been caused by ash in airspace in the vicinity of airports, without accumulation of ash on the ground. On a few occasions, airports have been impacted by hazards other than ash (pyroclastic flow, lava flow, gas emission, and phreatic explosion). Several airports have been affected repeatedly by volcanic hazards. Four airports have been affected the most often and likely will continue to be among the most vulnerable owing to continued nearby volcanic activity: Fontanarossa International Airport in Catania, Italy; Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport in Alaska, USA; Mariscal Sucre International Airport in Quito, Ecuador; and Tokua Airport in Kokopo, Papua New Guinea. The USA has the most airports affected by volcanic activity (17) on the most occasions (33) and hosts the second highest number of volcanoes that have caused the disruptions (5, after Indonesia with 7). One-fifth of the affected airports are within 30 km of the source volcanoes, approximately half are located within 150 km of the source volcanoes, and about three-quarters are within 300 km; nearly one-fifth are located more than 500 km away from the source volcanoes. The volcanoes that have caused the most impacts are Soufriere Hills on the island of Montserrat in the British West Indies

Hazardous Waste Generators

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Many industries generate hazardous waste. EPA regulates hazardous waste under the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act to ensure these wastes are managed in ways that are protective of human health and the environment.

Urbanization factors associated with childhood asthma and prematurity: a population-based analysis aged from 0 to 5 years in Taiwan by using Cox regression within a hospital cluster model.

PubMed

Lin, Sheng-Chieh; Lin, Hui-Wen

2015-04-01

Childhood asthma and premature birth are both common; however, no studies have reported urbanization association between asthma and prematurity and the duration of prematurity affect asthma development. We use Taiwan Longitudinal Health Insurance Database (LHID) to explore association between asthma and prematurity among children by using a population-based analysis. This is a retrospective cohort study with registration data derived from Taiwan LHID. We evaluated prematurely born infants and children aged <5 years (n = 532) and age-matched control patients (n = 60505) using Cox proportional hazard regression analysis within a hospital cluster model. Of the 61 037 examinees, 14 012 experienced asthma during the 5-year follow-up, including 161 (72.26 per 1000 person-years) infants and children born prematurely and 13 851 (40.27 per 1000 person-years) controls. The hazard ratio for asthma during 5-year follow-up period was 1.95 (95% confidence interval = 1.67-2.28) among children born prematurely. Boys born prematurely aged 0-2 years were associated with higher asthma rates compared with girls in non-premature and premature groups. Living in urban areas, those born prematurely were associated with higher rates of asthma compared with non-prematurity. Those born prematurely lived in northern region had higher asthma hazard ratio than other regions. Our analyses indicated that sex, age, urbanization level, and geographic region are significantly associated with prematurity and asthma. Based on cumulative asthma-free survival curve generated using the Kaplan-Meier method, infants born prematurely should be closely monitored to see if they would develop asthma until the age of 6 years.

76 FR 4823 - Hazardous Waste Management System; Identifying and Listing Hazardous Waste Exclusion

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-01-27

... Waste Management System; Identifying and Listing Hazardous Waste Exclusion AGENCY: Environmental... hazardous wastes. The Agency has decided to grant the petition based on an evaluation of waste-specific... excludes the petitioned waste from the requirements of hazardous waste regulations under the Resource...

Cardiac sympathetic denervation and dementia in de novo Parkinson's disease: A 7-year follow-up study.

PubMed

Choi, Mun Hee; Yoon, Jung Han; Yong, Suk Woo

2017-10-15

Postganglionic cardiac sympathetic denervation is evident in patients with early-stage Parkinson's disease (PD). Cardiac iodine-123-meta-iodobenzylguanidine (MIBG) uptake is correlated with the non-motor symptoms of PD, suggesting that low cardiac MIBG uptake may reflect wider alpha-synuclein pathology. In addition, low cardiac MIBG could be related to orthostatic hypotension in PD, which may affect cognition. However, the prognostic validity of baseline MIBG scintigraphy in terms of the risk of subsequent dementia remains unclear. We investigated whether cardiac MIBG uptake was associated with a later risk of dementia. We retrospectively enrolled 93 drug-naive patients with de novo PD who underwent MIBG scanning on initial evaluation. The patients visited our outpatient clinic every 3-6months and were followed-up for a minimum of 4years from the time they were begun on dopaminergic medication. The predictive powers of baseline MIBG cardiac scintigraphic data in terms of dementia development were evaluated using Cox's proportional hazard models. During a mean follow-up period of 6.7years, 27 patients with PD (29.0%) developed dementia. These patients had less baseline MIBG uptake than did others (delayed H/M ratios: 1.19 vs. 1.31). Multivariate Cox's proportional hazard modeling revealed that both MIBG uptake (hazard ratio [HR] 3.40; p=0.004) and age (HR 1.08, p=0.01) significantly predicted dementia development. A reduction in cardiac MIBG uptake by PD patients may be associated with a subsequent risk of dementia; reduced uptake may reflect wider extension of alpha-synuclein pathology in PD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis of Precipitation (Rain and Snow) Levels and Straight-line Wind Speeds in Support of the 10-year Natural Phenomena Hazards Review for Los Alamos National Laboratory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kelly, Elizabeth J.; Dewart, Jean Marie; Deola, Regina

This report provides site-specific return level analyses for rain, snow, and straight-line wind extreme events. These analyses are in support of the 10-year review plan for the assessment of meteorological natural phenomena hazards at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). These analyses follow guidance from Department of Energy, DOE Standard, Natural Phenomena Hazards Analysis and Design Criteria for DOE Facilities (DOE-STD-1020-2012), Nuclear Regulatory Commission Standard Review Plan (NUREG-0800, 2007) and ANSI/ ANS-2.3-2011, Estimating Tornado, Hurricane, and Extreme Straight-Line Wind Characteristics at Nuclear Facility Sites. LANL precipitation and snow level data have been collected since 1910, although not all years are complete.more » In this report the results from the more recent data (1990–2014) are compared to those of past analyses and a 2004 National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration report. Given the many differences in the data sets used in these different analyses, the lack of statistically significant differences in return level estimates increases confidence in the data and in the modeling and analysis approach.« less

Natural hazards in a changing world: a case for ecosystem-based management.

PubMed

Nel, Jeanne L; Le Maitre, David C; Nel, Deon C; Reyers, Belinda; Archibald, Sally; van Wilgen, Brian W; Forsyth, Greg G; Theron, Andre K; O'Farrell, Patrick J; Kahinda, Jean-Marc Mwenge; Engelbrecht, Francois A; Kapangaziwiri, Evison; van Niekerk, Lara; Barwell, Laurie

2014-01-01

Communities worldwide are increasingly affected by natural hazards such as floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves. However, the causes of these increases remain underexplored, often attributed to climate changes or changes in the patterns of human exposure. This paper aims to quantify the effect of climate change, as well as land cover change, on a suite of natural hazards. Changes to four natural hazards (floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves) were investigated through scenario-based models using land cover and climate change drivers as inputs. Findings showed that human-induced land cover changes are likely to increase natural hazards, in some cases quite substantially. Of the drivers explored, the uncontrolled spread of invasive alien trees was estimated to halve the monthly flows experienced during extremely dry periods, and also to double fire intensities. Changes to plantation forestry management shifted the 1:100 year flood event to a 1:80 year return period in the most extreme scenario. Severe 1:100 year storm-waves were estimated to occur on an annual basis with only modest human-induced coastal hardening, predominantly from removal of coastal foredunes and infrastructure development. This study suggests that through appropriate land use management (e.g. clearing invasive alien trees, re-vegetating clear-felled forests, and restoring coastal foredunes), it would be possible to reduce the impacts of natural hazards to a large degree. It also highlights the value of intact and well-managed landscapes and their role in reducing the probabilities and impacts of extreme climate events.

Natural Hazards in a Changing World: A Case for Ecosystem-Based Management

PubMed Central

Nel, Jeanne L.; Le Maitre, David C.; Nel, Deon C.; Reyers, Belinda; Archibald, Sally; van Wilgen, Brian W.; Forsyth, Greg G.; Theron, Andre K.; O’Farrell, Patrick J.; Kahinda, Jean-Marc Mwenge; Engelbrecht, Francois A.; Kapangaziwiri, Evison; van Niekerk, Lara; Barwell, Laurie

2014-01-01

Communities worldwide are increasingly affected by natural hazards such as floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves. However, the causes of these increases remain underexplored, often attributed to climate changes or changes in the patterns of human exposure. This paper aims to quantify the effect of climate change, as well as land cover change, on a suite of natural hazards. Changes to four natural hazards (floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves) were investigated through scenario-based models using land cover and climate change drivers as inputs. Findings showed that human-induced land cover changes are likely to increase natural hazards, in some cases quite substantially. Of the drivers explored, the uncontrolled spread of invasive alien trees was estimated to halve the monthly flows experienced during extremely dry periods, and also to double fire intensities. Changes to plantation forestry management shifted the 1∶100 year flood event to a 1∶80 year return period in the most extreme scenario. Severe 1∶100 year storm-waves were estimated to occur on an annual basis with only modest human-induced coastal hardening, predominantly from removal of coastal foredunes and infrastructure development. This study suggests that through appropriate land use management (e.g. clearing invasive alien trees, re-vegetating clear-felled forests, and restoring coastal foredunes), it would be possible to reduce the impacts of natural hazards to a large degree. It also highlights the value of intact and well-managed landscapes and their role in reducing the probabilities and impacts of extreme climate events. PMID:24806527

Hazardous Waste Permitting

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

To provide RCRA hazardous waste permitting regulatory information and resources permitted facilities, hazardous waste generators, and permit writers. To provide the public with information on how they can be involved in the permitting process.

76 FR 55846 - Hazardous Waste Management System: Identification and Listing of Hazardous Waste: Carbon Dioxide...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-09

... 2050-AG60 Hazardous Waste Management System: Identification and Listing of Hazardous Waste: Carbon... hazardous waste management under the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) to conditionally exclude... and recordkeeping requirements. 40 CFR Part 261 Environmental protection, Hazardous waste, Solid waste...

The Main Biological Hazards in Animal Biosafety Level 2 Facilities and Strategies for Control.

PubMed

Li, Xiao Yan; Xue, Kang Ning; Jiang, Jin Sheng; Lu, Xuan Cheng

2016-04-01

Concern about the biological hazards involved in microbiological research, especially research involving laboratory animals, has increased in recent years. Working in an animal biosafety level 2 facility (ABSL-2), commonly used for research on infectious diseases, poses various biological hazards. Here, the regulations and standards related to laboratory biosafety in China are introduced, the potential biological hazards present in ABSL-2 facilities are analyzed, and a series of strategies to control the hazards are presented. Copyright © 2016 The Editorial Board of Biomedical and Environmental Sciences. Published by China CDC. All rights reserved.

Long-term (>3 Years) outcome and predictors of clinical events after insertion of sirolimus-eluting stent in one or more native coronary arteries (from the Israeli arm of the e-Cypher registry).

PubMed

Planer, David; Beyar, Rafael; Almagor, Yaron; Banai, Shmuel; Guetta, Victor; Miller, Hilton; Kornowski, Ran; Brandes, Simcha; Krakover, Ricardo; Solomon, Mivi; Lotan, Chaim

2008-04-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate long-term (3.4 years) outcomes and predictors of clinical events in patients treated with sirolimus-eluting stents in the Israeli arm of the e-Cypher registry. From July 2002 to October 2003, 488 patients from 8 medical centers in Israel were enrolled in the e-Cypher registry. Nineteen patients with interventions in venous grafts were excluded from the final analysis. Long-term follow-up was completed for 98% of the remaining patients. There were 29 cases (6.3%) of death (3.9% cardiac and 2.4% noncardiac deaths). According to the broad academic research consortium definition of stent thrombosis, there were 19 cases (4%) of stent thrombosis (incidence density 0.9 cases/100 patient-years). There were 46 cases (9.9%) of target lesion revascularization and 76 cases (16.3%) of major adverse cardiac events (combination of death, myocardial infarction, and target lesion revascularization). Independent predictors of stent thrombosis were renal failure (hazard ratio 9.6, 95% confidence interval 1.9 to 47), stent length (hazard ratio 1.1, 95% confidence interval 1 to 1.2), and the off-label use of sirolimus-eluting stents (hazard ratio 5.3, 95% confidence interval 1.2 to 24). In conclusion, during >3 years of follow-up, stent thrombosis, major adverse cardiac events, and target lesion revascularization continued at constant rates over time. Clinical parameters such as renal failure and procedural parameters such as off-label use and stent length were independent predictors of stent thrombosis.

Informing Workers of Chemical Hazards: The OSHA Hazard Communication Standard.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

American Chemical Society, Washington, DC.

Practical information on how to implement a chemical-related safety program is outlined in this publication. Highlights of the federal Occupational Safety and Health Administrations (OSHA) Hazard Communication Standard are presented and explained. These include: (1) hazard communication requirements (consisting of warning labels, material safety…

Digital Data for Volcano Hazards at Newberry Volcano, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schilling, S.P.; Doelger, S.; Sherrod, D.R.; Mastin, L.G.; Scott, W.E.

2008-01-01

Newberry volcano is a broad shield volcano located in central Oregon, the product of thousands of eruptions, beginning about 600,000 years ago. At least 25 vents on the flanks and summit have been active during the past 10,000 years. The most recent eruption 1,300 years ago produced the Big Obsidian Flow. Thus, the volcano's long history and recent activity indicate that Newberry will erupt in the future. Newberry Crater, a volcanic depression or caldera has been the focus of Newberry's volcanic activity for at least the past 10,000 years. Newberry National Volcanic Monument, which is managed by the U.S. Forest Service, includes the caldera and extends to the Deschutes River. Newberry volcano is quiet. Local earthquake activity (seismicity) has been trifling throughout historic time. Subterranean heat is still present, as indicated by hot springs in the caldera and high temperatures encountered during exploratory drilling for geothermal energy. The report USGS Open-File Report 97-513 (Sherrod and others, 1997) describes the kinds of hazardous geologic events that might occur in the future at Newberry volcano. A hazard-zonation map is included to show the areas that will most likely be affected by renewed eruptions. When Newberry volcano becomes restless, the eruptive scenarios described herein can inform planners, emergency response personnel, and citizens about the kinds and sizes of events to expect. The geographic information system (GIS) volcano hazard data layers used to produce the Newberry volcano hazard map in USGS Open-File Report 97-513 are included in this data set. Scientists at the USGS Cascades Volcano Observatory created a GIS data layer to depict zones subject to the effects of an explosive pyroclastic eruption (tephra fallout, pyroclastic flows, and ballistics), lava flows, volcanic gasses, and lahars/floods in Paulina Creek. A separate GIS data layer depicts drill holes on the flanks of Newberry Volcano that were used to estimate the probability

Prevalence and Correlates of Hazardous Drinking among Female Sex Workers in 13 Mexican Cities.

PubMed

Semple, Shirley J; Pitpitan, Eileen V; Chavarin, Claudia V; Strathdee, Steffanie A; Zavala, Rosa Icela; Aarons, Gregory A; Patterson, Thomas L

2016-07-01

To describe the prevalence and correlates of hazardous drinking among female sex workers (FSWs) at 13 sites throughout Mexico. FSWs (N = 1089) who were enrolled in a brief sexual risk reduction intervention (Mujer Segura) were queried about their sexual risk and substance use practices and their work contexts. Participants were classified as hazardous or non-hazardous drinkers based on the Alcohol Use Disorders test (AUDIT-C). Logistic regression models were used to examine individual, contextual, and community-level factors as correlates of hazardous drinking. Ninety-two percent of participants reported alcohol consumption in the past month. Among drinkers (N = 1001), 83% met AUDIT-C criteria for hazardous drinking. Factors that were independently associated with hazardous drinking included: drug use in the past month (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 3.31; 95% CI 1.29-8.45), being a cigarette smoker (AOR = 1.71; 95% CI 1.13-2.58), being a barmaid or dance hostess (AOR = 3.40; 95% CI 1.95-5.91), alcohol use before or during sex with clients (AOR = 7.78; 95% CI 4.84-12.52), and working in a city with a higher marginalization index (AOR = 1.07; 95% CI 1.04-1.11). Findings support the high prioritization by public health authorities of alcohol prevention and treatment programs for FSWs. © The Author 2015. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

Prevalence and Correlates of Hazardous Drinking among Female Sex Workers in 13 Mexican Cities

PubMed Central

Semple, Shirley J.; Pitpitan, Eileen V.; Chavarin, Claudia V.; Strathdee, Steffanie A.; Zavala, Rosa Icela; Aarons, Gregory A.; Patterson, Thomas L.

2016-01-01

Aims To describe the prevalence and correlates of hazardous drinking among female sex workers (FSWs) at 13 sites throughout Mexico. Methods FSWs (N = 1089) who were enrolled in a brief sexual risk reduction intervention (Mujer Segura) were queried about their sexual risk and substance use practices and their work contexts. Participants were classified as hazardous or non-hazardous drinkers based on the Alcohol Use Disorders test (AUDIT-C). Logistic regression models were used to examine individual, contextual, and community-level factors as correlates of hazardous drinking. Results Ninety-two percent of participants reported alcohol consumption in the past month. Among drinkers (N = 1001), 83% met AUDIT-C criteria for hazardous drinking. Factors that were independently associated with hazardous drinking included: drug use in the past month (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 3.31; 95% CI 1.29—8.45), being a cigarette smoker (AOR = 1.71; 95% CI 1.13—2.58), being a barmaid or dance hostess (AOR = 3.40; 95% CI 1.95–5.91), alcohol use before or during sex with clients (AOR = 7.78; 95% CI 4.84–12.52), and working in a city with a higher marginalization index (AOR = 1.07; 95% CI 1.04–1.11). Conclusions Findings support the high prioritization by public health authorities of alcohol prevention and treatment programs for FSWs. PMID:26546017

Methods for Environments and Contaminants: Hazardous Air Pollutants

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA’s Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards estimated census tract annual average outdoor concentrations of 181i hazardous air pollutants, also known as air toxics, as part of EPA’s National Air Toxics Assessment (NATA) for the calendar year 2005.

INTERNAL HAZARDS ANALYSIS FOR LICENSE APPLICATION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

R.J. Garrett

2005-02-17

The purpose of this internal hazards analysis is to identify and document the internal hazards and potential initiating events associated with preclosure operations of the repository at Yucca Mountain. Internal hazards are those hazards presented by the operation of the facility and by its associated processes that can potentially lead to a radioactive release or cause a radiological hazard. In contrast to external hazards, internal hazards do not involve natural phenomena and external man-made hazards. This internal hazards analysis was performed in support of the preclosure safety analysis and the License Application for the Yucca Mountain Project. The methodology formore » this analysis provides a systematic means to identify internal hazards and potential initiating events that may result in a radiological hazard or radiological release during the repository preclosure period. These hazards are documented in tables of potential internal hazards and potential initiating events (Section 6.6) for input to the repository event sequence categorization process. The results of this analysis will undergo further screening and analysis based on the criteria that apply to the performance of event sequence analyses for the repository preclosure period. The evolving design of the repository will be re-evaluated periodically to ensure that internal hazards that have not been previously evaluated are identified.« less

Alaska Seismic Hazards Safety Commission

Science.gov Websites

State Employees ASHSC State of Alaska search Alaska Seismic Hazards Safety Commission View of Anchorage and Commissions Alaska Seismic Hazards Safety Commission (ASHSC) main contant Alaska Seismic Hazards Safety Commission logo Alaska Seismic Hazards Safety Commission (ASHSC) - Mission The Alaska Seismic

Stratified aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index accurately predicts survival in hepatocellular carcinoma patients undergoing curative liver resection.

PubMed

Yang, Hao-Jie; Jiang, Jing-Hang; Yang, Yu-Ting; Guo, Zhe; Li, Ji-Jia; Liu, Xuan-Han; Lu, Fei; Zeng, Feng-Hua; Ye, Jin-Song; Zhang, Ke-Lan; Chen, Neng-Zhi; Xiang, Bang-De; Li, Le-Qun

2017-03-01

The aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index has been reported to predict prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. This study examined the prognostic potential of stratified aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index for hepatocellular carcinoma patients undergoing curative liver resection. A total of 661 hepatocellular carcinoma patients were retrieved and the associations between aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index and clinicopathological variables and survivals (overall survival and disease-free survival) were analyzed. Higher aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index quartiles were significantly associated with poorer overall survival (p = 0.002) and disease-free survival (p = 0.001). Multivariate analysis showed aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index to be an independent risk factor for overall survival (p = 0.018) and disease-free survival (p = 0.01). Patients in the highest aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index quartile were at 44% greater risk of death than patients in the first quartile (hazard ratio = 1.445, 95% confidence interval = 1.081 - 1.931, p = 0.013), as well as 49% greater risk of recurrence (hazard ratio = 1.49, 95% confidence interval = 1.112-1.998, p = 0.008). Subgroup analysis also showed aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index to be an independent predictor of poor overall survival and disease-free survival in patients positive for hepatitis B surface antigen or with cirrhosis (both p < 0.05). Similar results were obtained when aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index was analyzed as a dichotomous variable with cutoff values of 0.25 and 0.62. Elevated preoperative aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index may be independently associated with poor overall survival and disease-free survival in hepatocellular carcinoma patients following curative resection.

Impact of paliperidone palmitate one-month formulation on relapse prevention in patients with schizophrenia: A post-hoc analysis of a one-year, open-label study stratified by medication adherence.

PubMed

Si, Tianmei; Li, Nan; Lu, Huafei; Cai, Shangli; Zhuo, Jianmin; Correll, Christoph U; Zhang, Lili; Feng, Yu

2018-06-01

Limited data are available to help identify patients with schizophrenia who are most likely to benefit from long-acting injectable antipsychotics. To investigate the efficacy of long-acting injectable antipsychotic paliperidone palmitate one-month formulation for preventing relapses, factors influencing time to first relapse, and the effect of different antipsychotic adherence levels on time to first relapse in Chinese patients with schizophrenia. This was a post-hoc analysis from an open-label, single-arm study of stable patients (Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale total score <70; n=367) receiving paliperidone palmitate one-month formulation at the end of an acute 13-week treatment phase, who entered a naturalistic one-year follow-up period, either continuing with flexibly dosed paliperidone palmitate one-month formulation (75-150 mg eq.) or switching to another antipsychotic(s). There were 362/367 patients (age=31.4±10.75 years) included in the analysis of time to first relapse (primary outcome) and 327/362 patients (39/327, poor antipsychotic adherence (<80%)) willing to receive antipsychotics were included in the exposure/adherence analysis. Overall, 84.6% (95% confidence interval=79.2-88.7) patients remained relapse-free. Poor adherence during follow-up (hazard ratio=2.97, 95% confidence interval=1.48-5.98, p=0.002) and frequent hospitalizations in the previous year (hazard ratio=1.29, 95% confidence interval=1.02-1.62, p=0.03) were associated with a significant risk of shorter time to first relapse in the univariate analysis. In patients with poor adherence, 'no use' (hazard ratio=13.13, 95% confidence interval=1.33-129.96, p=0.03) and 'interrupted use' (hazard ratio=11.04, 95% confidence interval=1.03-118.60, p=0.047) of paliperidone palmitate one-month formulation (vs continued use) showed a significantly higher risk of relapse; this was not observed in patients with good (≥80%) antipsychotic adherence. No new safety concerns were identified

Increased mortality in a Danish cohort of young people with Type 1 diabetes mellitus followed for 24 years.

PubMed

Sandahl, K; Nielsen, L B; Svensson, J; Johannesen, J; Pociot, F; Mortensen, H B; Hougaard, P; Broe, R; Rasmussen, M L; Grauslund, J; Peto, T; Olsen, B S

2017-03-01

To determine the mortality rate in a Danish cohort of children and adolescents diagnosed with Type 1 diabetes mellitus compared with the general population. In 1987 and 1989 we included 884 children and 1020 adolescents aged 20 years and under, corresponding to 75% of all Danish children and adolescents with Type 1 diabetes, in two nationwide studies in Denmark. Those who had participated in both investigations (n = 720) were followed until 1 January 2014, using the Danish Civil Registration System on death certificates and emigration. We derived the expected number of deaths in the cohort, using population data values from Statistics Denmark to calculate the standardized mortality ratio. Survival analysis was performed using Cox proportional hazards model. During the 24 years of follow-up, 49 (6.8%) patients died, resulting in a standardized mortality ratio of 4.8 (95% confidence interval 3.5, 6.2) compared with the age-standardized general population. A 1% increase in baseline HbA 1c (1989), available in 718 of 720 patients, was associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio = 1.38; 95% confidence interval 1.2, 1.6; P < 0.0001). Type 1 diabetes with multiple complications was the most common reported cause of death (36.7%). We found an increased mortality rate in this cohort of children and adolescents with Type 1 diabetes compared with the general population. The only predictor for increased risk of death up to 24 years after inclusion was the HbA 1c level in 1989. This emphasizes the importance of achieving optimal metabolic control in young people with Type 1 diabetes. © 2016 Diabetes UK.

Does the Mother or Father Determine the Offspring Sex Ratio? Investigating the Relationship between Maternal Digit Ratio and Offspring Sex Ratio

PubMed Central

Kim, Tae Beom; Oh, Jin Kyu; Kim, Kwang Taek; Yoon, Sang Jin; Kim, Soo Woong

2015-01-01

Objective In mammals, high parental testosterone levels present around the time of conception are thought to skew offspring sex ratio toward sons. The second to fourth digit ratio (digit ratio) is now widely accepted as a negative correlate of prenatal testosterone. Thus, we investigated the association between digit ratio and offspring sex ratio. Methods A total of 508 Korean patients (257 males and 251 females) less than 60 years old who had one or more offspring were prospectively enrolled. The lengths of the 2nd and 4th digits of the right hand were measured by a single investigator using a digital vernier calliper. Next, the patients’ lifetime offspring birth sex ratios were investigated. Results Maternal (rather than paternal) digit ratio was significantly associated with the number of sons (r = -0.153, p = 0.015), number of daughters (r = 0.130, p = 0.039), and offspring sex ratio (r = -0.171, p = 0.007). And, the maternal digit ratio was a significant factor for predicting offspring sex ratio (B = -1.620, p = 0.008) on multiple linear regression analysis. The female patients with a lower digit ratio (< 0.95) were found to have a higher offspring sex ratio (0.609 versus 0.521, p = 0.046) compared to those with a higher digit ratio (≥ 0.95). Furthermore, females in the low digit ratio group have a probability 1.138 greater of having sons than females in the high digit ratio group. Conclusions Maternal digit ratio was negatively associated with offspring sex ratio. Females with a lower digit ratio were more likely to have more male offspring compared to those with a higher digit ratio. Thus, our results suggest that the sex of offspring might be more influenced by maternal rather than paternal factors. PMID:26575995

Shallow-landslide hazard map of Seattle, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harp, Edwin L.; Michael, John A.; Laprade, William T.

2006-01-01

Landslides, particularly debris flows, have long been a significant cause of damage and destruction to people and property in the Puget Sound region. Following the years of 1996 and 1997, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) designated Seattle as a 'Project Impact' city with the goal of encouraging the city to become more disaster resistant to the effects of landslides and other natural hazards. A major recommendation of the Project Impact council was that the city and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) collaborate to produce a landslide hazard map of the city. An exceptional data set archived by the city, containing more than 100 years of landslide data from severe storm events, allowed comparison of actual landslide locations with those predicted by slope-stability modeling. We used an infinite-slope analysis, which models slope segments as rigid friction blocks, to estimate the susceptibility of slopes to shallow landslides which often mobilize into debris flows, water-laden slurries that can form from shallow failures of soil and weathered bedrock, and can travel at high velocities down steep slopes. Data used for analysis consisted of a digital slope map derived from recent Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) imagery of Seattle, recent digital geologic mapping, and shear-strength test data for the geologic units in the surrounding area. The combination of these data layers within a Geographic Information System (GIS) platform allowed the preparation of a shallow landslide hazard map for the entire city of Seattle.

Volcano and earthquake hazards in the Crater Lake region, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bacon, Charles R.; Mastin, Larry G.; Scott, Kevin M.; Nathenson, Manuel

1997-01-01

Crater Lake lies in a basin, or caldera, formed by collapse of the Cascade volcano known as Mount Mazama during a violent, climactic eruption about 7,700 years ago. This event dramatically changed the character of the volcano so that many potential types of future events have no precedent there. This potentially active volcanic center is contained within Crater Lake National Park, visited by 500,000 people per year, and is adjacent to the main transportation corridor east of the Cascade Range. Because a lake is now present within the most likely site of future volcanic activity, many of the hazards at Crater Lake are different from those at most other Cascade volcanoes. Also significant are many faults near Crater Lake that clearly have been active in the recent past. These faults, and historic seismicity, indicate that damaging earthquakes can occur there in the future. This report describes the various types of volcano and earthquake hazards in the Crater Lake area, estimates of the likelihood of future events, recommendations for mitigation, and a map of hazard zones. The main conclusions are summarized below.

Management of Hazardous Waste in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Widyatmoko, H.

2018-01-01

Indonesia needs to build four Treatment Centrals for 229,907 tons per year produced hazardous waste. But almost all hazardous waste treatment is managed by just one company at present, namely PT. PPLI (Prasada Pamunah Limbah Industri). This research is based on collected data which identifies payback period of 0.69 years and rate of return 85 %. PT PPLI is located within the Cileungsi District of the Bogor Regency of West Java Province. Records from nearest rainfall station at Cibinong indicate that annual average rainfall for the site is about 3,600 mm. It is situated on hilly terrain and is characterized by steep slopes as well as has a very complex geological structure. The Tertiary sequence was folded to form an assymetric anticline with axis trend in an East-West direction. Three major faults cut the middle of the site in a North-South direction with a vertical displacement of about 1.5 meters and a zone width of 1 meter. The high concentration of Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) 2500 ppm in Secondary Leachate Collection System (SLCS) indicate a possible failure of the Primary Leachate Clection System (PLCS), which need correct action to prevent groundwater contamination.

Community resilience under multi-hazards: time series measurement and it's strategies for improvement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Cong-shan; Fang, Yi-ping

2017-04-01

Multi - hazards stress is a big obsession that hampers the social and economic development in disaster - prone areas. There is a need to understand and manage drivers of vulnerability and adaptive capacity to the system of multiple geological hazards. Here we pilot three methods namely the multi - hazards resilience assessment model (new framework), the entropy weight method, and the assess social resilience to flood hazards model to measure the resilience to natural hazards of landslide and debris flow on community scale. Using one typical multi - hazards affected county in southwest China, 32 resilience indicators belonging to antecedent conditions, coping responses, adaptation (including learning), and hazard exposure are selected, and a composite index was calculated under the three methods mentioned above. Results show that the new framework reflected a more detailed fluctuation among the 16 years, despite of the overall similar trend between 2000 and 2015 under the three methods. Medical insurance coverage, unemployment insurance coverage, education degree, and hazard exposure are the main drivers of resilience. The most effective strategies for improving community resilience to multiple hazards are likely to be accelerating the development of education, improving the level of medical security, increasing unemployment insurance, and establishing multi - hazards prevention and mitigation systems.

A 15-year prospective study of shift work and disability pension

PubMed Central

Tüchsen, F; Christensen, K B; Lund, T; Feveile, H

2008-01-01

Objective: To estimate the hazard ratio for disability pension associated with shift work. Methods: Cohorts of shift and day workers were identified in three waves of the Danish Work Environment Cohort Study and followed up for incidence of disability pension in a national register of social transfer payment. A total of 3980 female and 4025 male employees were included in the cohorts. Information about shift work status, age, smoking habits, body mass index and ergonomic work environment were updated according to responses in subsequent waves of the survey when possible. Respondents reporting shift work were classified as shift workers in the following waves as well. Respondents were followed in the register from the time of first interview and were censored at the time of their 60th birthday, emigration, death or end of follow-up (18 June 2006). The authors used the Cox proportional hazards model to estimate hazard ratios for incidence of disability pension and 95% confidence intervals. Results: The authors observed 253 new disability pensions among women and 173 among men during 56 903 and 57 886 person-years at risk respectively, Among women, shift work predicted disability after adjustment for age, general health and socioeconomic status HR 1.39 (95% CI 1.07 to 1.82). After further adjustment for body mass index, smoking habits, socioeconomic status and ergonomic exposures the association remained statistically significant HR 1.34 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.75). Shift work was not associated with disability among men. Conclusion: Shift work might be moderately associated with disability pension among women; however, more powerful studies are needed to establish the possible association. PMID:18198201

Source processes for the probabilistic assessment of tsunami hazards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.; Lynett, Patrick J.

2014-01-01

The importance of tsunami hazard assessment has increased in recent years as a result of catastrophic consequences from events such as the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Japan tsunamis. In particular, probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) methods have been emphasized to include all possible ways a tsunami could be generated. Owing to the scarcity of tsunami observations, a computational approach is used to define the hazard. This approach includes all relevant sources that may cause a tsunami to impact a site and all quantifiable uncertainty. Although only earthquakes were initially considered for PTHA, recent efforts have also attempted to include landslide tsunami sources. Including these sources into PTHA is considerably more difficult because of a general lack of information on relating landslide area and volume to mean return period. The large variety of failure types and rheologies associated with submarine landslides translates to considerable uncertainty in determining the efficiency of tsunami generation. Resolution of these and several other outstanding problems are described that will further advance PTHA methodologies leading to a more accurate understanding of tsunami hazard.

Assessment of social vulnerability to natural hazards in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gautam, Dipendra

2017-12-01

This paper investigates district-wide social vulnerability to natural hazards in Nepal. Disasters such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, epidemics, and droughts are common in Nepal. Every year thousands of people are killed and huge economic and environmental losses occur in Nepal due to various natural hazards. Although natural hazards are well recognized, quantitative and qualitative social vulnerability mapping has not existed until now in Nepal. This study aims to quantify the social vulnerability on a local scale, considering all 75 districts using the available census. To perform district-level vulnerability mapping, 13 variables were selected and aggregated indexes were plotted in an ArcGIS environment. The sum of results shows that only 4 districts in Nepal have a very low social vulnerability index whereas 46 districts (61 %) are at moderate to high social vulnerability levels. Vulnerability mapping highlights the immediate need for decentralized frameworks to tackle natural hazards in district level; additionally, the results of this study can contribute to preparedness, planning and resource management, inter-district coordination, contingency planning, and public awareness efforts.

Earthquake shaking hazard estimates and exposure changes in the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jaiswal, Kishor S.; Petersen, Mark D.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.; Leith, William S.

2015-01-01

A large portion of the population of the United States lives in areas vulnerable to earthquake hazards. This investigation aims to quantify population and infrastructure exposure within the conterminous U.S. that are subjected to varying levels of earthquake ground motions by systematically analyzing the last four cycles of the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Models (published in 1996, 2002, 2008 and 2014). Using the 2013 LandScan data, we estimate the numbers of people who are exposed to potentially damaging ground motions (peak ground accelerations at or above 0.1g). At least 28 million (~9% of the total population) may experience 0.1g level of shaking at relatively frequent intervals (annual rate of 1 in 72 years or 50% probability of exceedance (PE) in 50 years), 57 million (~18% of the total population) may experience this level of shaking at moderately frequent intervals (annual rate of 1 in 475 years or 10% PE in 50 years), and 143 million (~46% of the total population) may experience such shaking at relatively infrequent intervals (annual rate of 1 in 2,475 years or 2% PE in 50 years). We also show that there is a significant number of critical infrastructure facilities located in high earthquake-hazard areas (Modified Mercalli Intensity ≥ VII with moderately frequent recurrence interval).

Hazard pay: An effective antagonist

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexander, R. E.

1971-01-01

Procedures for allocating hazardous pay to employees are outlined. According to the guidelines, only top level management can authorize hazardous tasks and decide if said task is indeed hazardous. The guidelines also state that hazardous jobs may be performed only if it is essential to finish a project and cannot be adequately safequarded.

Five year change in alcohol intake and risk of breast cancer and coronary heart disease among postmenopausal women: prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Dam, Marie K; Hvidtfeldt, Ulla A; Tjønneland, Anne; Overvad, Kim; Grønbæk, Morten; Tolstrup, Janne S

2016-05-11

To test the hypothesis that postmenopausal women who increase their alcohol intake over a five year period have a higher risk of breast cancer and a lower risk of coronary heart disease compared with stable alcohol intake. Prospective cohort study. Denmark, 1993-2012. 21 523 postmenopausal women who participated in the Diet, Cancer, and Health Study in two consecutive examinations in 1993-98 and 1999-2003. Information on alcohol intake was obtained from questionnaires completed by participants. Incidence of breast cancer, coronary heart disease, and all cause mortality during 11 years of follow-up. Information was obtained from the Danish Cancer Register, Danish Hospital Discharge Register, Danish Register of Causes of Death, and National Central Person Register. We estimated hazard ratios according to five year change in alcohol intake using Cox proportional hazards models. During the study, 1054, 1750, and 2080 cases of breast cancer, coronary heart disease, and mortality occurred, respectively. Analyses modelling five year change in alcohol intake with cubic splines showed that women who increased their alcohol intake over the five year period had a higher risk of breast cancer and a lower risk of coronary heart disease than women with a stable alcohol intake. For instance, women who increased their alcohol intake by seven or 14 drinks per week (corresponding to one or two drinks more per day) had hazard ratios of breast cancer of 1.13 (95% confidence interval 1.03 to 1.23) and 1.29 (1.07 to 1.55), respectively, compared to women with stable intake, and adjusted for age, education, body mass index, smoking, Mediterranean diet score, parity, number of births, and hormone replacement therapy. For coronary heart disease, corresponding hazard ratios were 0.89 (0.81 to 0.97) and 0.78 (0.64 to 0.95), respectively, adjusted for age, education, body mass index, Mediterranean diet score, smoking, physical activity, hypertension, elevated cholesterol, and diabetes

The risk concept and its application in natural hazard risk management in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bründl, M.; Romang, H. E.; Bischof, N.; Rheinberger, C. M.

2009-05-01

Over the last ten years, a risk-based approach to manage natural hazards - termed the risk concept - has been introduced to the management of natural hazards in Switzerland. Large natural hazard events, new political initiatives and limited financial resources have led to the development and introduction of new planning instruments and software tools that should support natural hazard engineers and planners to effectively and efficiently deal with natural hazards. Our experience with these new instruments suggests an improved integration of the risk concept into the community of natural hazard engineers and planners. Important factors for the acceptance of these new instruments are the integration of end-users during the development process, the knowledge exchange between science, developers and end-users as well as training and education courses for users. Further improvements require the maintenance of this knowledge exchange and a mindful adaptation of the instruments to case-specific circumstances.

Hazards in volcanic arcs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sparks, S. R.

2008-12-01

Volcanic eruptions in arcs are complex natural phenomena, involving the movement of magma to the Earth's surface and interactions with the surrounding crust during ascent and with the surface environment during eruption, resulting in secondary hazards. Magma changes its properties profoundly during ascent and eruption and many of the underlying processes of heat and mass transfer and physical property changes that govern volcanic flows and magmatic interactions with the environment are highly non-linear. Major direct hazards include tephra fall, pyroclastic flows from explosions and dome collapse, volcanic blasts, lahars, debris avalanches and tsunamis. There are also health hazards related to emissions of gases and very fine volcanic ash. These hazards and progress in their assessment are illustrated mainly from the ongoing eruption of the Soufriere Hills volcano. Montserrat. There are both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in the assessment of volcanic hazards, which can be large, making precise prediction a formidable objective. Indeed in certain respects volcanic systems and hazardous phenomena may be intrinsically unpredictable. As with other natural phenomena, predictions and hazards inevitably have to be expressed in probabilistic terms that take account of these uncertainties. Despite these limitations significant progress is being made in the ability to anticipate volcanic activity in volcanic arcs and, in favourable circumstances, make robust hazards assessments and predictions. Improvements in monitoring ground deformation, gas emissions and seismicity are being combined with more advanced models of volcanic flows and their interactions with the environment. In addition more structured and systematic methods for assessing hazards and risk are emerging that allow impartial advice to be given to authorities during volcanic crises. There remain significant issues of how scientific advice and associated uncertainties are communicated to provide effective

Technical Guidance for Hazardous Analysis, Emergency Planning for Extremely Hazardous Substances

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This current guide supplements NRT-1 by providing technical assistance to LEPCs to assess the lethal hazards related to potential airborne releases of extremely hazardous substances (EHSs) as designated under Section 302 of Title Ill of SARA.

Chemical hazards in health care: high hazard, high risk, but low protection.

PubMed

McDiarmid, Melissa A

2006-09-01

It is counter-intuitive that the healthcare industry, whose mission is the care of the sick, is itself a "high-hazard" industry for the workers it employs. Possessing every hazard class, with chemical agents in the form of pharmaceuticals, sterilants, and germicidals in frequent use, this industry sector consistently demonstrates poor injury and illness statistics, among the highest in the United States, and in the European Union (EU), 34% higher than the average work-related accident rate. In both the United States and the EU, about 10% of all workers are employed in the healthcare sector, and in developing countries as well, forecasts for the increasing need of healthcare workers (HCW) suggests a large population at potential risk of health harm. The explosion of technology growth in the healthcare sector, most obvious in pharmaceutical applications, has not been accompanied by a stepped up safety program in hospitals. Where there is hazard recognition, the remedies are often voluntary, and often poorly enforced. The wrong assumption that this industry would police itself, given its presumed knowledge base, has also been found wanting. The healthcare industry is also a significant waste generator threatening the natural environment with chemical and infectious waste and products of incineration. The ILO has recommended that occupational health goals for industrial nations focus on the hazards of new technology of which pharma and biopharma products are the leaders. This unchecked growth cannot continue without a parallel commitment to the health and safety of workers encountering these "high tech" hazards. Simple strategies to improve the present state include: (a) recognizing healthcare as a "high-hazard" employment sector; (b) fortifying voluntary safety guidelines to the level of enforceable regulation; (c) "potent" inspections; (d) treating hazardous pharmaceuticals like the chemical toxicants they are; and (e) protecting HCWs at least as well as workers in

Administrative goals and safety standards for hazard control on forested recreation sites

Treesearch

Lee A. Paine

1973-01-01

For efficient control of tree hazard on recreation sites, a specific administrative goal must be selected. A safety standard designed to achieve the selected goal and a uniform hazard-rating procedure will then promote a consistent level of safety at an acceptable cost. Safety standards can be established with the aid of data for past years, and dollar evaluations are...

Triglyceride to High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Ratio Predicts Cardiovascular Outcomes in Prevalent Dialysis Patients

PubMed Central