The Value of Change: Surprises and Insights in Stellar Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bildsten, Lars

2018-01-01

Astronomers with large-format cameras regularly scan the sky many times per night to detect what's changing, and telescopes in space such as Kepler and, soon, TESS obtain very accurate brightness measurements of nearly a million stars over time periods of years. These capabilities, in conjunction with theoretical and computational efforts, have yielded surprises and remarkable new insights into the internal properties of stars and how they end their lives. I will show how asteroseismology reveals the properties of the deep interiors of red giants, and highlight how astrophysical transients may be revealing unusual thermonuclear outcomes from exploding white dwarfs and the births of highly magnetic neutron stars. All the while, stellar science has been accelerated by the availability of open source tools, such as Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA), and the nearly immediate availability of observational results.

Corrugator activity confirms immediate negative affect in surprise

PubMed Central

Topolinski, Sascha; Strack, Fritz

2015-01-01

The emotion of surprise entails a complex of immediate responses, such as cognitive interruption, attention allocation to, and more systematic processing of the surprising stimulus. All these processes serve the ultimate function to increase processing depth and thus cognitively master the surprising stimulus. The present account introduces phasic negative affect as the underlying mechanism responsible for this switch in operating mode. Surprising stimuli are schema-discrepant and thus entail cognitive disfluency, which elicits immediate negative affect. This affect in turn works like a phasic cognitive tuning switching the current processing mode from more automatic and heuristic to more systematic and reflective processing. Directly testing the initial elicitation of negative affect by surprising events, the present experiment presented high and low surprising neutral trivia statements to N = 28 participants while assessing their spontaneous facial expressions via facial electromyography. High compared to low surprising trivia elicited higher corrugator activity, indicative of negative affect and mental effort, while leaving zygomaticus (positive affect) and frontalis (cultural surprise expression) activity unaffected. Future research shall investigate the mediating role of negative affect in eliciting surprise-related outcomes. PMID:25762956

Corrugator activity confirms immediate negative affect in surprise.

PubMed

Topolinski, Sascha; Strack, Fritz

2015-01-01

The emotion of surprise entails a complex of immediate responses, such as cognitive interruption, attention allocation to, and more systematic processing of the surprising stimulus. All these processes serve the ultimate function to increase processing depth and thus cognitively master the surprising stimulus. The present account introduces phasic negative affect as the underlying mechanism responsible for this switch in operating mode. Surprising stimuli are schema-discrepant and thus entail cognitive disfluency, which elicits immediate negative affect. This affect in turn works like a phasic cognitive tuning switching the current processing mode from more automatic and heuristic to more systematic and reflective processing. Directly testing the initial elicitation of negative affect by surprising events, the present experiment presented high and low surprising neutral trivia statements to N = 28 participants while assessing their spontaneous facial expressions via facial electromyography. High compared to low surprising trivia elicited higher corrugator activity, indicative of negative affect and mental effort, while leaving zygomaticus (positive affect) and frontalis (cultural surprise expression) activity unaffected. Future research shall investigate the mediating role of negative affect in eliciting surprise-related outcomes.

AO 0235+164 and Surrounding Field: Surprising HST Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burbidge, E. M.; Beaver, E. A.; Cohen, Ross D.; Junkkarinen, V. T.; Lyons, R. W.

1996-01-01

Results obtained with the Hubble Space Telescope on the highly variable radio, x-ray, and gamma-ray emitting QSO (or BL Lac object) AO 0235 + 164 are presented and analyzed. WFPC2 images were obtained in 1994 June, when AO 0235 + 164 was bright (m approx. 17), and the results are described in Sec. 3. After subtraction of the PSF of the QSO, hereafter called AO following the nomenclature of Yanny et al. (1989), the companion object named A, 2 sec south of AO, is discovered not to be an elliptical galaxy as hypothesized earlier, but to be an AGN object, with a central UV-bright point-source nucleus and faint surrounding nebulosity extending to AO. The second companion object 1.3 sec east of AO discovered by Yanny et al. (1989) and named object Al, appears more like a normal spiral galaxy. We have measured the positions, luminosities, and colors of some 30 faint objects in the field around AO 0235 + 16; most are extended and may be star-forming galaxies in a loose group or cluster. Our most surprising result of the HST observations comes from FOS spectra obtained in 1995 July, discussed in Sec. 4. Because of a positioning error of the telescope and AO's faintness at that time (m approx. 20), object A was observed instead of the intended target AO. Serendipitously, we discovered A to have broad deep BALQSO-type absorptions of C IV, Si IV, N V shortward of broad emissions. A is thus ejecting high velocity, highly ionized gas into the surrounding IGM. We discuss in Sec. 5 the relationship of the objects in the central 10 sec X 1O sec region around AO, where redshifts z(sub e) = 0.94, z(sub a) = 0.524, 0.851 in AO, (sub e) = 0.524 and Z(sub BAL)=0.511 in A, are found. We hypothesize that some of the 30 faint objects in the 77 sec. x 77 sec. field may be part of a large star-forming region at z approx. 0.5, as suggested for a few objects by Yanny et al. (1989). The proximity of two highly active extragalactic objects, AO 0235+164 and its AGN companion A, is remarkable and

Some Surprising Introductory Physics Facts and Numbers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mallmann, A. James

2016-01-01

In the entertainment world, people usually like, and find memorable, novels, short stories, and movies with surprise endings. This suggests that classroom teachers might want to present to their students examples of surprising facts associated with principles of physics. Possible benefits of finding surprising facts about principles of physics are…

Radar Design to Protect Against Surprise

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Doerry, Armin W.

Technological and doctrinal surprise is about rendering preparations for conflict as irrelevant or ineffective . For a sensor, this means essentially rendering the sensor as irrelevant or ineffective in its ability to help determine truth. Recovery from this sort of surprise is facilitated by flexibility in our own technology and doctrine. For a sensor, this mean s flexibility in its architecture, design, tactics, and the designing organizations ' processes. - 4 - Acknowledgements This report is the result of a n unfunded research and development activity . Sandia National Laboratories is a multi - program laboratory manage d and operatedmore » by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE - AC04 - 94AL85000.« less

Human amygdala response to dynamic facial expressions of positive and negative surprise.

PubMed

Vrticka, Pascal; Lordier, Lara; Bediou, Benoît; Sander, David

2014-02-01

Although brain imaging evidence accumulates to suggest that the amygdala plays a key role in the processing of novel stimuli, only little is known about its role in processing expressed novelty conveyed by surprised faces, and even less about possible interactive encoding of novelty and valence. Those investigations that have already probed human amygdala involvement in the processing of surprised facial expressions either used static pictures displaying negative surprise (as contained in fear) or "neutral" surprise, and manipulated valence by contextually priming or subjectively associating static surprise with either negative or positive information. Therefore, it still remains unresolved how the human amygdala differentially processes dynamic surprised facial expressions displaying either positive or negative surprise. Here, we created new artificial dynamic 3-dimensional facial expressions conveying surprise with an intrinsic positive (wonderment) or negative (fear) connotation, but also intrinsic positive (joy) or negative (anxiety) emotions not containing any surprise, in addition to neutral facial displays either containing ("typical surprise" expression) or not containing ("neutral") surprise. Results showed heightened amygdala activity to faces containing positive (vs. negative) surprise, which may either correspond to a specific wonderment effect as such, or to the computation of a negative expected value prediction error. Findings are discussed in the light of data obtained from a closely matched nonsocial lottery task, which revealed overlapping activity within the left amygdala to unexpected positive outcomes. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Some surprising facts about (the problem of) surprising facts (from the Dusseldorf Conference, February 2011).

PubMed

Mayo, D

2014-03-01

A common intuition about evidence is that if data x have been used to construct a hypothesis H, then x should not be used again in support of H. It is no surprise that x fits H, if H was deliberately constructed to accord with x. The question of when and why we should avoid such "double-counting" continues to be debated in philosophy and statistics. It arises as a prohibition against data mining, hunting for significance, tuning on the signal, and ad hoc hypotheses, and as a preference for predesignated hypotheses and "surprising" predictions. I have argued that it is the severity or probativeness of the test--or lack of it--that should determine whether a double-use of data is admissible. I examine a number of surprising ambiguities and unexpected facts that continue to bedevil this debate.

Superconductivity: A Continuous Surprise or ``How I Learned to Love the Surprises''

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dynes, Robert

2011-03-01

When I was invited to give this talk, I thought I would talk about new materials, or new opportunities, or the electron-phonon interaction, or non electron phonon interactions. Then when I looked at the speakers in this symposium and the subjects that they were scheduled to talk about, I realized that they were better equipped to talk individually about each of these subjects than I was, and it was my role to introduce the subject and give a perspective on the future of research and applications in superconductivity. My experience over the past decades has been that it is very dangerous to make predictions in this field. There are many examples of our distinguished colleagues who have engaged in this practice only to be proven wrong by surprise after surprise Fortunately, this has not harmed their reputations or their courage to continue to make predictions. In this talk I will reflect on my personal experience over several decades of research in superconductivity and how my own thinking has changed. Hopefully, I will Transmit a flavor of this field and stimulate other younger investigators to be adventuresome Prepare the audience for the talks that follow Motivate the following speakers to reveal their own predictions and surprises.

Surprise: a belief or an emotion?

PubMed

Mellers, Barbara; Fincher, Katrina; Drummond, Caitlin; Bigony, Michelle

2013-01-01

Surprise is a fundamental link between cognition and emotion. It is shaped by cognitive assessments of likelihood, intuition, and superstition, and it in turn shapes hedonic experiences. We examine this connection between cognition and emotion and offer an explanation called decision affect theory. Our theory predicts the affective consequences of mistaken beliefs, such as overconfidence and hindsight. It provides insight about why the pleasure of a gain can loom larger than the pain of a comparable loss. Finally, it explains cross-cultural differences in emotional reactions to surprising events. By changing the nature of the unexpected (from chance to good luck), one can alter the emotional reaction to surprising events. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Some Surprising Introductory Physics Facts and Numbers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mallmann, A. James

2016-04-01

In the entertainment world, people usually like, and find memorable, novels, short stories, and movies with surprise endings. This suggests that classroom teachers might want to present to their students examples of surprising facts associated with principles of physics. Possible benefits of finding surprising facts about principles of physics are opportunities to expand beyond traditional presentations—and, in some cases, to achieve a deeper and broader understanding of those principles. I believe, moreover, that some of the facts presented here may inspire physics teachers to produce some challenge problems for students.

Pupil dilation signals uncertainty and surprise in a learning gambling task.

PubMed

Lavín, Claudio; San Martín, René; Rosales Jubal, Eduardo

2013-01-01

Pupil dilation under constant illumination is a physiological marker where modulation is related to several cognitive functions involved in daily decision making. There is evidence for a role of pupil dilation change during decision-making tasks associated with uncertainty, reward-prediction errors and surprise. However, while some work suggests that pupil dilation is mainly modulated by reward predictions, others point out that this marker is related to uncertainty signaling and surprise. Supporting the latter hypothesis, the neural substrate of this marker is related to noradrenaline (NA) activity which has been also related to uncertainty signaling. In this work we aimed to test whether pupil dilation is a marker for uncertainty and surprise in a learning task. We recorded pupil dilation responses in 10 participants performing the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), a decision-making task that requires learning and constant monitoring of outcomes' feedback, which are important variables within the traditional study of human decision making. Results showed that pupil dilation changes were modulated by learned uncertainty and surprise regardless of feedback magnitudes. Interestingly, greater pupil dilation changes were found during positive feedback (PF) presentation when there was lower uncertainty about a future negative feedback (NF); and by surprise during NF presentation. These results support the hypothesis that pupil dilation is a marker of learned uncertainty, and may be used as a marker of NA activity facing unfamiliar situations in humans.

Exploring the concept of climate surprises. A review of the literature on the concept of surprise and how it is related to climate change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Glantz, M.H.; Moore, C.M.; Streets, D.G.

This report examines the concept of climate surprise and its implications for environmental policymaking. Although most integrated assessment models of climate change deal with average values of change, it is usually the extreme events or surprises that cause the most damage to human health and property. Current models do not help the policymaker decide how to deal with climate surprises. This report examines the literature of surprise in many aspects of human society: psychology, military, health care, humor, agriculture, etc. It draws together various ways to consider the concept of surprise and examines different taxonomies of surprise that have beenmore » proposed. In many ways, surprise is revealed to be a subjective concept, triggered by such factors as prior experience, belief system, and level of education. How policymakers have reacted to specific instances of climate change or climate surprise in the past is considered, particularly with regard to the choices they made between proactive and reactive measures. Finally, the report discusses techniques used in the current generation of assessment models and makes suggestions as to how climate surprises might be included in future models. The report concludes that some kinds of surprises are simply unpredictable, but there are several types that could in some way be anticipated and assessed, and their negative effects forestalled.« less

Surprise

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Curran, L.

1988-03-03

Interest has been building in recent months over the imminent arrival of a new class of supercomputer, called the ''supercomputer on a desk'' or the single-user model. Most observers expected the first such product to come from either of two startups, Ardent Computer Corp. or Stellar Computer Inc. But a surprise entry has shown up. Apollo Computer Inc. is launching a new work station this week that racks up an impressive list of industry first as it puts supercomputer power at the disposal of a single user. The new series 10000 from the Chelmsford, Mass., a company is built aroundmore » a reduced-instruction-set architecture that the company calls Prism, for parallel reduced-instruction-set multiprocessor. This article describes the 10000 and Prism.« less

Surprise influences hindsight-foresight differences in temporal judgments of animated automobile accidents.

PubMed

Calvillo, Dustin P; Gomes, Dayna M

2011-04-01

The hindsight bias occurs when people view an outcome as more foreseeable than it actually was. The role of an outcome's initial surprise in the hindsight bias was examined using animations of automobile accidents. Twenty-six participants rated the initial surprise of accidents' occurring in eight animations. An additional 84 participants viewed these animations in one of two conditions: Half stopped the animations when they were certain an accident would occur (i.e., in foresight), and the other half watched the entire animations first and then stopped the animations when they thought that a naïve viewer would be certain that an accident would occur (i.e., in hindsight). When the accidents were low in initial surprise, there were no foresight-hindsight differences; when initial surprise was medium, there was a hindsight bias; and when initial surprise was high, there was a reversed hindsight bias. The results are consistent with a sense-making model of hindsight bias.

Pupil dilation signals uncertainty and surprise in a learning gambling task

PubMed Central

Lavín, Claudio; San Martín, René; Rosales Jubal, Eduardo

2014-01-01

Pupil dilation under constant illumination is a physiological marker where modulation is related to several cognitive functions involved in daily decision making. There is evidence for a role of pupil dilation change during decision-making tasks associated with uncertainty, reward-prediction errors and surprise. However, while some work suggests that pupil dilation is mainly modulated by reward predictions, others point out that this marker is related to uncertainty signaling and surprise. Supporting the latter hypothesis, the neural substrate of this marker is related to noradrenaline (NA) activity which has been also related to uncertainty signaling. In this work we aimed to test whether pupil dilation is a marker for uncertainty and surprise in a learning task. We recorded pupil dilation responses in 10 participants performing the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), a decision-making task that requires learning and constant monitoring of outcomes’ feedback, which are important variables within the traditional study of human decision making. Results showed that pupil dilation changes were modulated by learned uncertainty and surprise regardless of feedback magnitudes. Interestingly, greater pupil dilation changes were found during positive feedback (PF) presentation when there was lower uncertainty about a future negative feedback (NF); and by surprise during NF presentation. These results support the hypothesis that pupil dilation is a marker of learned uncertainty, and may be used as a marker of NA activity facing unfamiliar situations in humans. PMID:24427126

Evaluative Appraisals of Environmental Mystery and Surprise

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nasar, Jack L.; Cubukcu, Ebru

2011-01-01

This study used a desktop virtual environment (VE) of 15 large-scale residential streets to test the effects of environmental mystery and surprise on response. In theory, mystery and surprise should increase interest and visual appeal. For each VE, participants walked through an approach street and turned right onto a post-turn street. We designed…

A Statistical Analysis of the Relationship between Harmonic Surprise and Preference in Popular Music

PubMed Central

Miles, Scott A.; Rosen, David S.; Grzywacz, Norberto M.

2017-01-01

Studies have shown that some musical pieces may preferentially activate reward centers in the brain. Less is known, however, about the structural aspects of music that are associated with this activation. Based on the music cognition literature, we propose two hypotheses for why some musical pieces are preferred over others. The first, the Absolute-Surprise Hypothesis, states that unexpected events in music directly lead to pleasure. The second, the Contrastive-Surprise Hypothesis, proposes that the juxtaposition of unexpected events and subsequent expected events leads to an overall rewarding response. We tested these hypotheses within the framework of information theory, using the measure of “surprise.” This information-theoretic variable mathematically describes how improbable an event is given a known distribution. We performed a statistical investigation of surprise in the harmonic structure of songs within a representative corpus of Western popular music, namely, the McGill Billboard Project corpus. We found that chords of songs in the top quartile of the Billboard chart showed greater average surprise than those in the bottom quartile. We also found that the different sections within top-quartile songs varied more in their average surprise than the sections within bottom-quartile songs. The results of this study are consistent with both the Absolute- and Contrastive-Surprise Hypotheses. Although these hypotheses seem contradictory to one another, we cannot yet discard the possibility that both absolute and contrastive types of surprise play roles in the enjoyment of popular music. We call this possibility the Hybrid-Surprise Hypothesis. The results of this statistical investigation have implications for both music cognition and the human neural mechanisms of esthetic judgments. PMID:28572763

A Statistical Analysis of the Relationship between Harmonic Surprise and Preference in Popular Music.

PubMed

Miles, Scott A; Rosen, David S; Grzywacz, Norberto M

2017-01-01

Studies have shown that some musical pieces may preferentially activate reward centers in the brain. Less is known, however, about the structural aspects of music that are associated with this activation. Based on the music cognition literature, we propose two hypotheses for why some musical pieces are preferred over others. The first, the Absolute-Surprise Hypothesis, states that unexpected events in music directly lead to pleasure. The second, the Contrastive-Surprise Hypothesis, proposes that the juxtaposition of unexpected events and subsequent expected events leads to an overall rewarding response. We tested these hypotheses within the framework of information theory, using the measure of "surprise." This information-theoretic variable mathematically describes how improbable an event is given a known distribution. We performed a statistical investigation of surprise in the harmonic structure of songs within a representative corpus of Western popular music, namely, the McGill Billboard Project corpus. We found that chords of songs in the top quartile of the Billboard chart showed greater average surprise than those in the bottom quartile. We also found that the different sections within top-quartile songs varied more in their average surprise than the sections within bottom-quartile songs. The results of this study are consistent with both the Absolute- and Contrastive-Surprise Hypotheses. Although these hypotheses seem contradictory to one another, we cannot yet discard the possibility that both absolute and contrastive types of surprise play roles in the enjoyment of popular music. We call this possibility the Hybrid-Surprise Hypothesis. The results of this statistical investigation have implications for both music cognition and the human neural mechanisms of esthetic judgments.

Lexical Predictability During Natural Reading: Effects of Surprisal and Entropy Reduction.

PubMed

Lowder, Matthew W; Choi, Wonil; Ferreira, Fernanda; Henderson, John M

2018-06-01

What are the effects of word-by-word predictability on sentence processing times during the natural reading of a text? Although information complexity metrics such as surprisal and entropy reduction have been useful in addressing this question, these metrics tend to be estimated using computational language models, which require some degree of commitment to a particular theory of language processing. Taking a different approach, this study implemented a large-scale cumulative cloze task to collect word-by-word predictability data for 40 passages and compute surprisal and entropy reduction values in a theory-neutral manner. A separate group of participants read the same texts while their eye movements were recorded. Results showed that increases in surprisal and entropy reduction were both associated with increases in reading times. Furthermore, these effects did not depend on the global difficulty of the text. The findings suggest that surprisal and entropy reduction independently contribute to variation in reading times, as these metrics seem to capture different aspects of lexical predictability. Copyright © 2018 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

A Contrast-Based Computational Model of Surprise and Its Applications.

PubMed

Macedo, Luis; Cardoso, Amílcar

2017-11-19

We review our work on a contrast-based computational model of surprise and its applications. The review is contextualized within related research from psychology, philosophy, and particularly artificial intelligence. Influenced by psychological theories of surprise, the model assumes that surprise-eliciting events initiate a series of cognitive processes that begin with the appraisal of the event as unexpected, continue with the interruption of ongoing activity and the focusing of attention on the unexpected event, and culminate in the analysis and evaluation of the event and the revision of beliefs. It is assumed that the intensity of surprise elicited by an event is a nonlinear function of the difference or contrast between the subjective probability of the event and that of the most probable alternative event (which is usually the expected event); and that the agent's behavior is partly controlled by actual and anticipated surprise. We describe applications of artificial agents that incorporate the proposed surprise model in three domains: the exploration of unknown environments, creativity, and intelligent transportation systems. These applications demonstrate the importance of surprise for decision making, active learning, creative reasoning, and selective attention. Copyright © 2017 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Pupil size tracks perceptual content and surprise.

PubMed

Kloosterman, Niels A; Meindertsma, Thomas; van Loon, Anouk M; Lamme, Victor A F; Bonneh, Yoram S; Donner, Tobias H

2015-04-01

Changes in pupil size at constant light levels reflect the activity of neuromodulatory brainstem centers that control global brain state. These endogenously driven pupil dynamics can be synchronized with cognitive acts. For example, the pupil dilates during the spontaneous switches of perception of a constant sensory input in bistable perceptual illusions. It is unknown whether this pupil dilation only indicates the occurrence of perceptual switches, or also their content. Here, we measured pupil diameter in human subjects reporting the subjective disappearance and re-appearance of a physically constant visual target surrounded by a moving pattern ('motion-induced blindness' illusion). We show that the pupil dilates during the perceptual switches in the illusion and a stimulus-evoked 'replay' of that illusion. Critically, the switch-related pupil dilation encodes perceptual content, with larger amplitude for disappearance than re-appearance. This difference in pupil response amplitude enables prediction of the type of report (disappearance vs. re-appearance) on individual switches (receiver-operating characteristic: 61%). The amplitude difference is independent of the relative durations of target-visible and target-invisible intervals and subjects' overt behavioral report of the perceptual switches. Further, we show that pupil dilation during the replay also scales with the level of surprise about the timing of switches, but there is no evidence for an interaction between the effects of surprise and perceptual content on the pupil response. Taken together, our results suggest that pupil-linked brain systems track both the content of, and surprise about, perceptual events. © 2015 Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Surprise in Schools: Martin Buber and Dialogic Schooling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stern, Julian

2013-01-01

The philosopher Martin Buber described the central role of surprise in education. Surprise is not an alternative to planning and order in schools, and it is not even an alternative to repetitive practice. It is, instead, that which must be allowed to occur in any dialogic encounter. Schooling that is creative and filled with hope will also be…

Mirativity as Surprise: Evidentiality, Information, and Deixis.

PubMed

Peterson, Tyler

2016-12-01

The goal of this paper is to investigate the linguistic, psychological and cognitive properties of utterances that express the surprise of the speaker, with a focus on how grammatical evidentials are used for this purpose. This is often labeled in the linguistics literature as mirativity. While there has been a flurry of recent interest in mirativity, we still lack an understanding of how and why evidentials are used this way, and an explanation of this effect. In this paper I take steps to filling this gap by showing how the mirativity associated with grammatical evidentials is one of the many linguistic reflexes of the more general cognitive process of surprise. I approach this by analyzing mirativity, and the language of surprise more generally, in a schema-theoretic framework enriched with the notion of new environmental information. I elaborate on the field methodological issues involved with testing the mirative use of an evidential and why they are used this way by connecting mirative evidentials to the broader phenomenon of deixis.

Interaction complexity matters: disentangling services and disservices of ant communities driving yield in tropical agroecosystems

PubMed Central

Wielgoss, Arno; Tscharntke, Teja; Rumede, Alfianus; Fiala, Brigitte; Seidel, Hannes; Shahabuddin, Saleh; Clough, Yann

2014-01-01

Owing to complex direct and indirect effects, impacts of higher trophic levels on plants is poorly understood. In tropical agroecosystems, ants interact with crop mutualists and antagonists, but little is known about how this integrates into the final ecosystem service, crop yield. We combined ant exclusion and introduction of invasive and native-dominant species in cacao agroecosystems to test whether (i) ant exclusion reduces yield, (ii) dominant species maximize certain intermediate ecosystem services (e.g. control of specific pests) rather than yield, which depends on several, cascading intermediate services and (iii) even, species-rich ant communities result in highest yields. Ants provided services, including reduced leaf herbivory and fruit pest damage and indirect pollination facilitation, but also disservices, such as increased mealybug density, phytopathogen dissemination and indirect pest damage enhancement. Yields were highest with unmanipulated, species-rich, even communities, whereas ant exclusion decreased yield by 27%. Introduction of an invasive-dominant ant decreased species density and evenness and resulted in 34% lower yields, whereas introduction of a non-invasive-dominant species resulted in similar species density and yields as in the unmanipulated control. Species traits and ant community structure affect services and disservices for agriculture in surprisingly complex ways, with species-rich and even communities promoting highest yield. PMID:24307667

Dissociable effects of surprise and model update in parietal and anterior cingulate cortex

PubMed Central

O’Reilly, Jill X.; Schüffelgen, Urs; Cuell, Steven F.; Behrens, Timothy E. J.; Mars, Rogier B.; Rushworth, Matthew F. S.

2013-01-01

Brains use predictive models to facilitate the processing of expected stimuli or planned actions. Under a predictive model, surprising (low probability) stimuli or actions necessitate the immediate reallocation of processing resources, but they can also signal the need to update the underlying predictive model to reflect changes in the environment. Surprise and updating are often correlated in experimental paradigms but are, in fact, distinct constructs that can be formally defined as the Shannon information (IS) and Kullback–Leibler divergence (DKL) associated with an observation. In a saccadic planning task, we observed that distinct behaviors and brain regions are associated with surprise/IS and updating/DKL. Although surprise/IS was associated with behavioral reprogramming as indexed by slower reaction times, as well as with activity in the posterior parietal cortex [human lateral intraparietal area (LIP)], the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) was specifically activated during updating of the predictive model (DKL). A second saccade-sensitive region in the inferior posterior parietal cortex (human 7a), which has connections to both LIP and ACC, was activated by surprise and modulated by updating. Pupillometry revealed a further dissociation between surprise and updating with an early positive effect of surprise and late negative effect of updating on pupil area. These results give a computational account of the roles of the ACC and two parietal saccade regions, LIP and 7a, by which their involvement in diverse tasks can be understood mechanistically. The dissociation of functional roles between regions within the reorienting/reprogramming network may also inform models of neurological phenomena, such as extinction and Balint syndrome, and neglect. PMID:23986499

The Soviet Style of Surprise

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-06-01

experienced. Two Frenchmen in the 1830’s set out on a journey. Alexis de Tocqueville visited the United States. Marquis de Custine visited Russia...to recall that Custine was writing more than a hundred years ago." [Ref. 11] The main topic of this paper is the use of surprise in warfare

Surprise but not coherence: sensitivity to verbal humor in right-hemisphere patients.

PubMed

Brownell, H H; Michel, D; Powelson, J; Gardner, H

1983-01-01

Verbal humor deficits were investigated in right-hemisphere-damaged patients. It was hypothesized that the appreciation of jokes presupposes two elements: sensitivity to the surprise element entailed in the punch line of a joke and apprehension of the coherence which results when the punch line has been integrated with the body of the joke. The possible dissociation between these elements was tested by asking subjects to select from four alternatives the appropriate ending to a joke. Right-hemisphere patients exhibited a selective attraction to endings which contained an element of surprise but which were not otherwise coherent with the body of the joke. This finding suggests that right-hemisphere patients have difficulty in integrating content across parts of a narrative and confirms the psychological reality of the proposed distinction between the surprise and coherence elements of humor processing.

The unbearable heaviness of colloids: facts, surprises, and puzzles in sedimentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piazza, Roberto; Buzzaccaro, Stefano; Secchi, Eleonora

2012-07-01

Sedimentation has played a key role in the development of colloid science. In fact, it is because of the celebrated experiments by Perrin, yielding a concrete demonstration of molecular reality and giving strong support to Einstein’s theory of Brownian motion, that colloids enter the realm of basic physics. Subsequent investigations have shown that a lot more can be learnt both from sedimentation equilibrium and from particle settling dynamics. These advances, together with new experimental approaches, will be reviewed in this paper. Yet, we shall also show that inquiring about gravity settling is far from being a closed matter: for instance, the concept of buoyancy for a settling colloidal mixture is far from being obvious. Moreover, sedimentation holds novel surprises, such as colloidal inflations and settling disasters, showing that a simple external field like gravity may induce mind-boggling, and theoretically challenging effects.

A shrunken-2 Transgene Increases Maize Yield by Acting in Maternal Tissues to Increase the Frequency of Seed Development[W

PubMed Central

Hannah, L. Curtis; Futch, Brandon; Bing, James; Shaw, Janine R.; Boehlein, Susan; Stewart, Jon D.; Beiriger, Robert; Georgelis, Nikolaos; Greene, Thomas

2012-01-01

The maize (Zea mays) shrunken-2 (Sh2) gene encodes the large subunit of the rate-limiting starch biosynthetic enzyme, ADP-glucose pyrophosphorylase. Expression of a transgenic form of the enzyme with enhanced heat stability and reduced phosphate inhibition increased maize yield up to 64%. The extent of the yield increase is dependent on temperatures during the first 4 d post pollination, and yield is increased if average daily high temperatures exceed 33°C. As found in wheat (Triticum aestivum) and rice (Oryza sativa), this transgene increases maize yield by increasing seed number. This result was surprising, since an entire series of historic observations at the whole-plant, enzyme, gene, and physiological levels pointed to Sh2 playing an important role only in the endosperm. Here, we present several lines of evidence that lead to the conclusion that the Sh2 transgene functions in maternal tissue to increase seed number and, in turn, yield. Furthermore, the transgene does not increase ovary number; rather, it increases the probability that a seed will develop. Surprisingly, the number of fully developed seeds is only ∼50% of the number of ovaries in wild-type maize. This suggests that increasing the frequency of seed development is a feasible agricultural target, especially under conditions of elevated temperatures. PMID:22751213

Surprise and Sense Making: Undergraduate Placement Experiences in SMEs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walmsley, Andreas; Thomas, Rhodri; Jameson, Stephanie

2006-01-01

Purpose: This paper seeks to explore undergraduate placement experiences in tourism and hospitality SMEs, focusing on the notions of surprise and sense making. It aims to argue that surprises and sense making are important elements not only of the adjustment process when entering new work environments, but also of the learning experience that…

Evidence for surprise minimization over value maximization in choice behavior

PubMed Central

Schwartenbeck, Philipp; FitzGerald, Thomas H. B.; Mathys, Christoph; Dolan, Ray; Kronbichler, Martin; Friston, Karl

2015-01-01

Classical economic models are predicated on the idea that the ultimate aim of choice is to maximize utility or reward. In contrast, an alternative perspective highlights the fact that adaptive behavior requires agents’ to model their environment and minimize surprise about the states they frequent. We propose that choice behavior can be more accurately accounted for by surprise minimization compared to reward or utility maximization alone. Minimizing surprise makes a prediction at variance with expected utility models; namely, that in addition to attaining valuable states, agents attempt to maximize the entropy over outcomes and thus ‘keep their options open’. We tested this prediction using a simple binary choice paradigm and show that human decision-making is better explained by surprise minimization compared to utility maximization. Furthermore, we replicated this entropy-seeking behavior in a control task with no explicit utilities. These findings highlight a limitation of purely economic motivations in explaining choice behavior and instead emphasize the importance of belief-based motivations. PMID:26564686

Salience and Attention in Surprisal-Based Accounts of Language Processing

PubMed Central

Zarcone, Alessandra; van Schijndel, Marten; Vogels, Jorrig; Demberg, Vera

2016-01-01

The notion of salience has been singled out as the explanatory factor for a diverse range of linguistic phenomena. In particular, perceptual salience (e.g., visual salience of objects in the world, acoustic prominence of linguistic sounds) and semantic-pragmatic salience (e.g., prominence of recently mentioned or topical referents) have been shown to influence language comprehension and production. A different line of research has sought to account for behavioral correlates of cognitive load during comprehension as well as for certain patterns in language usage using information-theoretic notions, such as surprisal. Surprisal and salience both affect language processing at different levels, but the relationship between the two has not been adequately elucidated, and the question of whether salience can be reduced to surprisal / predictability is still open. Our review identifies two main challenges in addressing this question: terminological inconsistency and lack of integration between high and low levels of representations in salience-based accounts and surprisal-based accounts. We capitalize upon work in visual cognition in order to orient ourselves in surveying the different facets of the notion of salience in linguistics and their relation with models of surprisal. We find that work on salience highlights aspects of linguistic communication that models of surprisal tend to overlook, namely the role of attention and relevance to current goals, and we argue that the Predictive Coding framework provides a unified view which can account for the role played by attention and predictability at different levels of processing and which can clarify the interplay between low and high levels of processes and between predictability-driven expectation and attention-driven focus. PMID:27375525

Salience and Attention in Surprisal-Based Accounts of Language Processing.

PubMed

Zarcone, Alessandra; van Schijndel, Marten; Vogels, Jorrig; Demberg, Vera

2016-01-01

The notion of salience has been singled out as the explanatory factor for a diverse range of linguistic phenomena. In particular, perceptual salience (e.g., visual salience of objects in the world, acoustic prominence of linguistic sounds) and semantic-pragmatic salience (e.g., prominence of recently mentioned or topical referents) have been shown to influence language comprehension and production. A different line of research has sought to account for behavioral correlates of cognitive load during comprehension as well as for certain patterns in language usage using information-theoretic notions, such as surprisal. Surprisal and salience both affect language processing at different levels, but the relationship between the two has not been adequately elucidated, and the question of whether salience can be reduced to surprisal / predictability is still open. Our review identifies two main challenges in addressing this question: terminological inconsistency and lack of integration between high and low levels of representations in salience-based accounts and surprisal-based accounts. We capitalize upon work in visual cognition in order to orient ourselves in surveying the different facets of the notion of salience in linguistics and their relation with models of surprisal. We find that work on salience highlights aspects of linguistic communication that models of surprisal tend to overlook, namely the role of attention and relevance to current goals, and we argue that the Predictive Coding framework provides a unified view which can account for the role played by attention and predictability at different levels of processing and which can clarify the interplay between low and high levels of processes and between predictability-driven expectation and attention-driven focus.

Expectancy and surprise predict neural and behavioral measures of attention to threatening stimuli

PubMed Central

Browning, Michael; Harmer, Catherine J.

2012-01-01

Attention is preferentially deployed toward those stimuli which are threatening and those which are surprising. The current paper examines the intersection of these phenomena; how do expectations about the threatening nature of stimuli influence the deployment of attention? The predictions tested were that individuals would direct attention toward stimuli which were expected to be threatening (regardless of whether they were or not) and toward stimuli which were surprising. As anxiety has been associated with deficient control of attention to threat, it was additionally predicted that high levels of trait anxiety would be associated with deficits in the use of threat-expectation to guide attention. During fMRI scanning, 29 healthy volunteers completed a simple task in which threat-expectation was manipulated by altering the frequency with which fearful or neutral faces were presented. Individual estimates of threat-expectation and surprise were created using a Bayesian computational model. The degree to which the model derived estimates of threat-expectation and surprise were able to explain both a behavioral measure of attention to the faces and activity in the visual cortex and anterior attentional control areas was then tested. As predicted, increased threat-expectation and surprise were associated with increases in both the behavioral and neuroimaging measures of attention to the faces. Additionally, regions of the orbitofrontal cortex and left amygdala were found to covary with threat-expectation whereas anterior cingulate and lateral prefrontal cortices covaried with surprise. Individuals with higher levels of trait anxiety were less able to modify neuroimaging measures of attention in response to threat-expectation. These results suggest that continuously calculated estimates of the probability of threat may plausibly be used to influence the deployment of visual attention and that use of this information is perturbed in anxious individuals. PMID:21945791

Adding a second surprise question triggers general practitioners to increase the thoroughness of palliative care planning: results of a pilot RCT with cage vignettes.

PubMed

Weijers, F; Veldhoven, C; Verhagen, C; Vissers, K; Engels, Y

2018-04-19

In our aging society, palliative care should be a standard component of health care. However, currently it is only provided to a small proportion of patients, mostly to those with cancer, and restricted to the terminal phase. Many general practitioners (GPs) say that one of their most significant challenges is to assess the right moment to start anticipatory palliative care. The "Surprise Question" (SQ1: "Would I be surprised if this patient were to die in the next 12 months"?), if answered with "no", is an easy tool to apply in identifying patients in need of palliative care. However, this tool has a low specificity. Therefore, the aim of our pilot study was to determine if adding a second, more specific "Surprise Question" (SQ2: "Would I be surprised if this patient is still alive after 12 months"?) in case SQ1 is answered in the negative, prompts GPs to plan for anticipatory palliative care. By randomization, 28 GPs in the south-eastern part of the Netherlands were allocated to three different groups. They all received a questionnaire with four vignettes, respectively representing patients with advanced organ failure (A), end stage cancer (B), frailty (C), and recently diagnosed cancer (D). GPs in the first group did not receive additional information, the second group received SQ1 after each vignette, and the third group received SQ1 and SQ2 after each vignette. We rated their answers based on essential components of palliative care (here called RADIANT score). GPs in group 3 gave higher RADIANT scores to those vignettes in which they would be surprised if the patients were still alive after 12 months. In all groups, vignette B had the highest mean RADIANT score, followed by vignettes A and C, and the lowest on vignette D. Seventy-one percent of GPs in groups 2 and 3 considered SQ1 a helpful tool, and 75% considered SQ2 helpful. This innovative pilot study indicates that the majority of GPs think SQ2 is a helpful additional tool. The combination of the two

Some Surprising Errors in Numerical Differentiation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gordon, Sheldon P.

2012-01-01

Data analysis methods, both numerical and visual, are used to discover a variety of surprising patterns in the errors associated with successive approximations to the derivatives of sinusoidal and exponential functions based on the Newton difference-quotient. L'Hopital's rule and Taylor polynomial approximations are then used to explain why these…

Pseudohalide (SCN(-))-Doped MAPbI3 Perovskites: A Few Surprises.

PubMed

Halder, Ansuman; Chulliyil, Ramya; Subbiah, Anand S; Khan, Tuhin; Chattoraj, Shyamtanu; Chowdhury, Arindam; Sarkar, Shaibal K

2015-09-03

Pseudohalide thiocyanate anion (SCN(-)) has been used as a dopant in a methylammonium lead tri-iodide (MAPbI3) framework, aiming for its use as an absorber layer for photovoltaic applications. The substitution of SCN(-) pseudohalide anion, as verified using Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy, results in a comprehensive effect on the optical properties of the original material. Photoluminescence measurements at room temperature reveal a significant enhancement in the emission quantum yield of MAPbI3-x(SCN)x as compared to MAPbI3, suggestive of suppression of nonradiative channels. This increased intensity is attributed to a highly edge specific emission from MAPbI3-x(SCN)x microcrystals as revealed by photoluminescence microscopy. Fluoresence lifetime imaging measurements further established contrasting carrier recombination dynamics for grain boundaries and the bulk of the doped material. Spatially resolved emission spectroscopy on individual microcrystals of MAPbI3-x(SCN)x reveals that the optical bandgap and density of states at various (local) nanodomains are also nonuniform. Surprisingly, several (local) emissive regions within MAPbI3-x(SCN)x microcrystals are found to be optically unstable under photoirradiation, and display unambiguous temporal intermittency in emission (blinking), which is extremely unusual and intriguing. We find diverse blinking behaviors for the undoped MAPbI3 crystals as well, which leads us to speculate that blinking may be a common phenomenon for most hybrid perovskite materials.

Moderate rates of late Quaternary slip along the northwestern margin of the Basin and Range Province, Surprise Valley fault, northeastern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Personius, Stephen F.; Crone, Anthony J.; Machette, Michael N.; Mahan, Shannon; Lidke, David J.

2009-01-01

The 86-km-long Surprise Valley normal fault forms part of the active northwestern margin of the Basin and Range province in northeastern California. We use trench mapping and radiocarbon, luminescence, and tephra dating to estimate displacements and timing of the past five surface-rupturing earthquakes on the central part of the fault near Cedarville. A Bayesian OxCal analysis of timing constraints indicates earthquake times of 18.2 ± 2.6, 10.9 ± 3.2, 8.5 ± 0.5, 5.8 ± 1.5, and 1.2 ± 0.1 ka. These data yield recurrence intervals of 7.3 ± 4.1, 2.5 ± 3.2, 2.7 ± 1.6, and 4.5 ± 1.5 ka and an elapsed time of 1.2 ± 0.1 ka since the latest surface-rupturing earthquake. Our best estimate of latest Quaternary vertical slip rate is 0.6 ?? 0.1 mm/a. This late Quaternary rate is remarkably similar to long-term (8-14 Ma) minimum vertical slip rates (>0.4-0.5 ± 0.3 mm/a) calculated from recently acquired seismic reflection and chronologic and structural data in Surprise Valley and the adjacent Warner Mountains. However, our slip rate yields estimates of extension that are lower than recent campaign GPS determinations by factors of 1.5-4 unless the fault has an unusually shallow (30°-35°) dip as suggested by recently acquired seismic reflection data. Coseismic displacements of 2-4.5 ± 1 m documented in the trench and probable rupture lengths of 53-65 km indicate a history of latest Quaternary earthquakes of M 6.8-7.3 on the central part of the. Surprise Valley fault.

Teasing apart coercion and surprisal: Evidence from eye-movements and ERPs.

PubMed

Delogu, Francesca; Crocker, Matthew W; Drenhaus, Heiner

2017-04-01

Previous behavioral and electrophysiological studies have presented evidence suggesting that coercion expressions (e.g., began the book) are more difficult to process than control expressions like read the book. While this processing cost has been attributed to a specific coercion operation for recovering an event-sense of the complement (e.g., began reading the book), an alternative view based on the Surprisal Theory of language processing would attribute the cost to the relative unpredictability of the complement noun in the coercion compared to the control condition, with no need to postulate coercion-specific mechanisms. In two experiments, monitoring eye-tracking and event-related potentials (ERPs), respectively, we sought to determine whether there is any evidence for coercion-specific processing cost above-and-beyond the difficulty predicted by surprisal, by contrasting coercing and control expressions with a further control condition in which the predictability of the complement noun was similar to that in the coercion condition (e.g., bought the book). While the eye-tracking study showed significant effects of surprisal and a marginal effect of coercion on late reading measures, the ERP study clearly supported the surprisal account. Overall, our findings suggest that the coercion cost largely reflects the surprisal of the complement noun with coercion specific operations possibly influencing later processing stages. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The conceptualization model problem—surprise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bredehoeft, John

2005-03-01

The foundation of model analysis is the conceptual model. Surprise is defined as new data that renders the prevailing conceptual model invalid; as defined here it represents a paradigm shift. Limited empirical data indicate that surprises occur in 20-30% of model analyses. These data suggest that groundwater analysts have difficulty selecting the appropriate conceptual model. There is no ready remedy to the conceptual model problem other than (1) to collect as much data as is feasible, using all applicable methods—a complementary data collection methodology can lead to new information that changes the prevailing conceptual model, and (2) for the analyst to remain open to the fact that the conceptual model can change dramatically as more information is collected. In the final analysis, the hydrogeologist makes a subjective decision on the appropriate conceptual model. The conceptualization problem does not render models unusable. The problem introduces an uncertainty that often is not widely recognized. Conceptual model uncertainty is exacerbated in making long-term predictions of system performance. C'est le modèle conceptuel qui se trouve à base d'une analyse sur un modèle. On considère comme une surprise lorsque le modèle est invalidé par des données nouvelles; dans les termes définis ici la surprise est équivalente à un change de paradigme. Des données empiriques limitées indiquent que les surprises apparaissent dans 20 à 30% des analyses effectuées sur les modèles. Ces données suggèrent que l'analyse des eaux souterraines présente des difficultés lorsqu'il s'agit de choisir le modèle conceptuel approprié. Il n'existe pas un autre remède au problème du modèle conceptuel que: (1) rassembler autant des données que possible en utilisant toutes les méthodes applicables—la méthode des données complémentaires peut conduire aux nouvelles informations qui vont changer le modèle conceptuel, et (2) l'analyste doit rester ouvert au fait

The Surprising Persistence of Biglan's Classification Scheme

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Simpson, Adrian

2017-01-01

Within higher education systems, different institutions deliver different patterns of disciplines. A simple analysis of the structure of that pattern of disciplines across institutions in one higher education system uncovers a surprising relationship. That is, the key dimensions which describe that structure align nearly perfectly with dimensions…

The effect of emotionally valenced eye region images on visuocortical processing of surprised faces.

PubMed

Li, Shuaixia; Li, Ping; Wang, Wei; Zhu, Xiangru; Luo, Wenbo

2018-05-01

In this study, we presented pictorial representations of happy, neutral, and fearful expressions projected in the eye regions to determine whether the eye region alone is sufficient to produce a context effect. Participants were asked to judge the valence of surprised faces that had been preceded by a picture of an eye region. Behavioral results showed that affective ratings of surprised faces were context dependent. Prime-related ERPs with presentation of happy eyes elicited a larger P1 than those for neutral and fearful eyes, likely due to the recognition advantage provided by a happy expression. Target-related ERPs showed that surprised faces in the context of fearful and happy eyes elicited dramatically larger C1 than those in the neutral context, which reflected the modulation by predictions during the earliest stages of face processing. There were larger N170 with neutral and fearful eye contexts compared to the happy context, suggesting faces were being integrated with contextual threat information. The P3 component exhibited enhanced brain activity in response to faces preceded by happy and fearful eyes compared with neutral eyes, indicating motivated attention processing may be involved at this stage. Altogether, these results indicate for the first time that the influence of isolated eye regions on the perception of surprised faces involves preferential processing at the early stages and elaborate processing at the late stages. Moreover, higher cognitive processes such as predictions and attention can modulate face processing from the earliest stages in a top-down manner. © 2017 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

Surprise! Infants consider possible bases of generalization for a single input example.

PubMed

Gerken, LouAnn; Dawson, Colin; Chatila, Razanne; Tenenbaum, Josh

2015-01-01

Infants have been shown to generalize from a small number of input examples. However, existing studies allow two possible means of generalization. One is via a process of noting similarities shared by several examples. Alternatively, generalization may reflect an implicit desire to explain the input. The latter view suggests that generalization might occur when even a single input example is surprising, given the learner's current model of the domain. To test the possibility that infants are able to generalize based on a single example, we familiarized 9-month-olds with a single three-syllable input example that contained either one surprising feature (syllable repetition, Experiment 1) or two features (repetition and a rare syllable, Experiment 2). In both experiments, infants generalized only to new strings that maintained all of the surprising features from familiarization. This research suggests that surprise can promote very rapid generalization. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Analysis of physiological signals for recognition of boredom, pain, and surprise emotions.

PubMed

Jang, Eun-Hye; Park, Byoung-Jun; Park, Mi-Sook; Kim, Sang-Hyeob; Sohn, Jin-Hun

2015-06-18

The aim of the study was to examine the differences of boredom, pain, and surprise. In addition to that, it was conducted to propose approaches for emotion recognition based on physiological signals. Three emotions, boredom, pain, and surprise, are induced through the presentation of emotional stimuli and electrocardiography (ECG), electrodermal activity (EDA), skin temperature (SKT), and photoplethysmography (PPG) as physiological signals are measured to collect a dataset from 217 participants when experiencing the emotions. Twenty-seven physiological features are extracted from the signals to classify the three emotions. The discriminant function analysis (DFA) as a statistical method, and five machine learning algorithms (linear discriminant analysis (LDA), classification and regression trees (CART), self-organizing map (SOM), Naïve Bayes algorithm, and support vector machine (SVM)) are used for classifying the emotions. The result shows that the difference of physiological responses among emotions is significant in heart rate (HR), skin conductance level (SCL), skin conductance response (SCR), mean skin temperature (meanSKT), blood volume pulse (BVP), and pulse transit time (PTT), and the highest recognition accuracy of 84.7% is obtained by using DFA. This study demonstrates the differences of boredom, pain, and surprise and the best emotion recognizer for the classification of the three emotions by using physiological signals.

Ignorance, Vulnerability and the Occurrence of "Radical Surprises": Theoretical Reflections and Empirical Findings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuhlicke, C.

2009-04-01

By definition natural disasters always contain a moment of surprise. Their occurrence is mostly unforeseen and unexpected. They hit people unprepared, overwhelm them and expose their helplessness. Yet, there is surprisingly little known on the reasons for their being surprised. Aren't natural disasters expectable and foreseeable after all? Aren't the return rates of most hazards well known and shouldn't people be better prepared? The central question of this presentation is hence: Why do natural disasters so often radically surprise people at all (and how can we explain this being surprised)? In the first part of the presentation, it is argued that most approaches to vulnerability are not able to grasp this moment of surprise. On the contrary, they have their strength in unravelling the expectable: A person who is marginalized or even oppressed in everyday life is also vulnerable during times of crisis and stress, at least this is the central assumption of most vulnerability studies. In the second part, an understanding of vulnerability is developed, which allows taking into account such radical surprises. First, two forms of the unknown are differentiated: An area of the unknown an actor is more or less aware of (ignorance), and an area, which is not even known to be not known (nescience). The discovery of the latter is mostly associated with a "radical surprise", since it is per definition impossible to prepare for it. Second, a definition of vulnerability is proposed, which allows capturing the dynamics of surprises: People are vulnerable when they discover their nescience exceeding by definition previously established routines, stocks of knowledge and resources—in a general sense their capacities—to deal with their physical and/or social environment. This definition explicitly takes the view of different actors serious and departs from their being surprised. In the third part findings of a case study are presented, the 2002 flood in Germany. It is shown

Prediction suppression and surprise enhancement in monkey inferotemporal cortex.

PubMed

Ramachandran, Suchitra; Meyer, Travis; Olson, Carl R

2017-07-01

Exposing monkeys, over the course of days and weeks, to pairs of images presented in fixed sequence, so that each leading image becomes a predictor for the corresponding trailing image, affects neuronal visual responsiveness in area TE. At the end of the training period, neurons respond relatively weakly to a trailing image when it appears in a trained sequence and, thus, confirms prediction, whereas they respond relatively strongly to the same image when it appears in an untrained sequence and, thus, violates prediction. This effect could arise from prediction suppression (reduced firing in response to the occurrence of a probable event) or surprise enhancement (elevated firing in response to the omission of a probable event). To identify its cause, we compared firing under the prediction-confirming and prediction-violating conditions to firing under a prediction-neutral condition. The results provide strong evidence for prediction suppression and limited evidence for surprise enhancement. NEW & NOTEWORTHY In predictive coding models of the visual system, neurons carry signed prediction error signals. We show here that monkey inferotemporal neurons exhibit prediction-modulated firing, as posited by these models, but that the signal is unsigned. The response to a prediction-confirming image is suppressed, and the response to a prediction-violating image may be enhanced. These results are better explained by a model in which the visual system emphasizes unpredicted events than by a predictive coding model. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

Yield stress and scaling of polyelectrolyte multilayer modified suspensions: effect of polyelectrolyte conformation during multilayer assembly.

PubMed

Hess, Andreas; Aksel, Nuri

2013-09-10

The yield stress of polyelectrolyte multilayer modified suspensions exhibits a surprising dependence on the polyelectrolyte conformation of multilayer films. The rheological data scale onto a universal master curve for each polyelectrolyte conformation as the particle volume fraction, φ, and the ionic strength of the background fluid, I, are varied. It is shown that rough films with highly coiled, brushy polyelectrolytes significantly enhance the yield stress. Moreover, via the ionic strength I of the background fluid, the dynamic yield stress of brushy polyelectrolyte multilayers can be finely adjusted over 2 decades.

Decision-making under surprise and uncertainty: Arsenic contamination of water supplies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randhir, Timothy O.; Mozumder, Pallab; Halim, Nafisa

2018-05-01

With ignorance and potential surprise dominating decision making in water resources, a framework for dealing with such uncertainty is a critical need in hydrology. We operationalize the 'potential surprise' criterion proposed by Shackle, Vickers, and Katzner (SVK) to derive decision rules to manage water resources under uncertainty and ignorance. We apply this framework to managing water supply systems in Bangladesh that face severe, naturally occurring arsenic contamination. The uncertainty involved with arsenic in water supplies makes the application of conventional analysis of decision-making ineffective. Given the uncertainty and surprise involved in such cases, we find that optimal decisions tend to favor actions that avoid irreversible outcomes instead of conventional cost-effective actions. We observe that a diversification of the water supply system also emerges as a robust strategy to avert unintended outcomes of water contamination. Shallow wells had a slight higher optimal level (36%) compare to deep wells and surface treatment which had allocation levels of roughly 32% under each. The approach can be applied in a variety of other cases that involve decision making under uncertainty and surprise, a frequent situation in natural resources management.

Estimating the Impact and Spillover Effect of Climate Change on Crop Yield in Northern Ghana.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Botchway, E.

2016-12-01

In tropical regions of the world human-induced climate change is likely to impact negatively on crop yields. To investigate the impact of climate change and its spillover effect on mean and variance of crop yields in northern Ghana, the Just and Pope stochastic production function and the Spatial Durbin model were adopted. Surprisingly, the results suggest that both precipitation and average temperature have positive effects on mean crop yield during the wet season. Wet season average temperature has a significant spillover effect in the region, whereas precipitation during the wet season has only one significant spillover effect on maize yield. Wet season precipitation does not have a strong significant effect on crop yield despite the rainfed nature of agriculture in the region. Thus, even if there are losers and winners as a result of future climate change at the regional level, future crop yield would largely depend on future technological development in agriculture, which may improve yields over time despite the changing climate. We argue, therefore, that technical improvement in farm management such as improved seeds and fertilizers, conservation tillage and better pest control, may have a more significant role in increasing observed crop productivity levels over time. So investigating the relative importance of non-climatic factors on crop yield may shed more light on where appropriate interventions can help in improving crop yields. Climate change, also, needs to be urgently assessed at the level of the household, so that poor and vulnerable people dependent on agriculture can be appropriately targeted in research and development activities whose object is poverty alleviation.

Expect Surprises with 1-to-1 Laptops

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tusch, Erich G.

2012-01-01

The prospect of radically changing teaching and learning by issuing a laptop computer to every student and teacher is an exciting one, but it carried big risks and would take time and thorough planning to execute well. But even thorough planning can't prevent the unanticipated. In this article, the author counts six major surprises during his time…

Surprises from the field: Novel aspects of aeolian saltation observed under natural turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, R. L.; Kok, J. F.; Chamecki, M.

2015-12-01

The mass flux of aeolian (wind-blown) sediment transport - critical for understanding earth and planetary geomorphology, dust generation, and soil stability - is difficult to predict. Recent work suggests that competing models for saltation (the characteristic hopping of aeolian sediment) fail because they do not adequately account for wind turbulence. To address this issue, we performed field deployments measuring high-frequency co-variations of aeolian saltation and near-surface winds at multiple sites under a range of conditions. Our observations yield several novel findings not currently captured by saltation models: (1) Saltation flux displays no significant lag relative to horizontal wind velocity; (2) Characteristic height of the saltation layer remains constant with changes in shear velocity; and (3) During saltation, the vertical profile of mean horizontal wind velocity is steeper than expected from the Reynolds stress. We examine how the interactions between saltation and turbulence in field settings could explain some of these surprising observations.

The Effect of Surprising Events in a Serious Game on Learning Mathematics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wouters, Pieter; van Oostendorp, Herre; ter Vrugte, Judith; vanderCruysse, Sylke; de Jong, Ton; Elen, Jan

2017-01-01

The challenge in serious games is to improve the effectiveness of learning by stimulating relevant cognitive processes. In this paper, we investigate the potential of surprise in two experiments with prevocational students in the domain of proportional reasoning. Surprise involves an emotional reaction, but it also serves a cognitive goal as it…

Rare earth element content of thermal fluids from Surprise Valley, California

DOE Data Explorer

Andrew Fowler

2015-09-23

Rare earth element measurements for thermal fluids from Surprise Valley, California. Samples were collected in acid washed HDPE bottles and acidified with concentrated trace element clean (Fisher Scientific) nitric acid. Samples were pre-concentratated by a factor of approximately 10 using chelating resin with and IDA functional group and measured on magnetic sector ICP-MS. Samples include Seyferth Hot Springs, Surprise Valley Resort Mineral Well, Leonard's Hot Spring, and Lake City Mud Volcano Boiling Spring.

The June surprises: balls, strikes, and the fog of war.

PubMed

Fried, Charles

2013-04-01

At first, few constitutional experts took seriously the argument that the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act exceeded Congress's power under the commerce clause. The highly political opinions of two federal district judges - carefully chosen by challenging plaintiffs - of no particular distinction did not shake that confidence that the act was constitutional. This disdain for the challengers' arguments was only confirmed when the act was upheld by two highly respected conservative court of appeals judges in two separate circuits. But after the hostile, even mocking questioning of the government's advocate in the Supreme Court by the five Republican-appointed justices, the expectation was that the act would indeed be struck down on that ground. So it came as no surprise when the five opined the act did indeed exceed Congress's commerce clause power. But it came as a great surprise when Chief Justice John Roberts, joined by the four Democrat-appointed justices, ruled that the act could be sustained as an exercise of Congress's taxing power - a ground urged by the government almost as an afterthought. It was further surprising, even shocking, that Justices Antonin Scalia, Anthony Kennedy, Clarence Thomas, and Samuel Alito not only wrote a joint opinion on the commerce clause virtually identical to that of their chief, but that in writing it they did not refer to or even acknowledge his opinion. Finally surprising was the fact that Justices Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Stephen Breyer joined the chief in holding that aspects of the act's Medicaid expansion were unconstitutional. This essay ponders and tries to unravel some of these puzzles.

Surprises in Studies of Superdeformation in the Mass A ~80 Region.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lafosse, Dennis R.

1996-11-01

The study of superdeformation (SD) in the light nuclei around A ~80 only recently began with the advent of the third generation of γ-ray detector arrays. The uc(gammasphere) array in conjunction with the Washington University uc(microball) have offered unprecedented sensitivity in this mass region, which has been applied effectively to the study of these nuclei. Whereas there were no SD bands known in this light mass region only two years ago, over 20 bands in 9 nuclei have recently been discovered. Interesting systematic properties are beginning to emerge. For example, the measured deformations of the yrast SD bands in _38Sr nuclei show a large dependence on neutron number; the deformation of the yrast band in ^80Sr was determined to be surprisingly small, and comparable to that of the yrast normal-deformed states! Individual nuclei have also revealed surprising features. For example, an SD band in ^81Sr was found to decay out to another (SD?) state, but then to decay back into the SD band. A very interesting result was found in ^87Nb. Two SD bands in ^87Nb have been found to mutually interact with each other, and resulting cross transitions between the two bands have been observed. This interaction has been traced to a crossing of two neutron orbitals. Finally, future surprises may be in store. SD bands in this mass region are observed to extremely high rotational frequencies, often approaching hbarω=1.5 MeV. The extreme Coriolis force then brings the N=6 i_13/2 orbital down to the Fermi surface. Thus, SD bands having deformations approaching β_2=0.8 may be observed as a result of the high deformation driving property of these ``superintruder'' orbitals. The first hint of such states may have already been discovered in ^87Nb. One of the SD bands in this nucleus reveals a crossing which is likely due to the occupation of the i_13/2 orbital at the highest frequencies. The work to be presented is the result of an ongoing collaboration between Washington

Relationships between milk culture results and milk yield in Norwegian dairy cattle.

PubMed

Reksen, O; Sølverød, L; Østerås, O

2007-10-01

Associations between test-day milk yield and positive milk cultures for Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus spp., and other mastitis pathogens or a negative milk culture for mastitis pathogens were assessed in quarter milk samples from randomly sampled cows selected without regard to current or previous udder health status. Staphylococcus aureus was dichotomized according to sparse (< or =1,500 cfu/mL of milk) or rich (>1,500 cfu/mL of milk) growth of the bacteria. Quarter milk samples were obtained on 1 to 4 occasions from 2,740 cows in 354 Norwegian dairy herds, resulting in a total of 3,430 samplings. Measures of test-day milk yield were obtained monthly and related to 3,547 microbiological diagnoses at the cow level. Mixed model linear regression models incorporating an autoregressive covariance structure accounting for repeated test-day milk yields within cow and random effects at the herd and sample level were used to quantify the effect of positive milk cultures on test-day milk yields. Identical models were run separately for first-parity, second-parity, and third-parity or older cows. Fixed effects were days in milk, the natural logarithm of days in milk, sparse and rich growth of Staph. aureus (1/0), Streptococcus spp. (1/0), other mastitis pathogens (1/0), calving season, time of test-day milk yields relative to time of microbiological diagnosis (test day relative to time of diagnosis), and the interaction terms between microbiological diagnosis and test day relative to time of diagnosis. The models were run with the logarithmically transformed composite milk somatic cell count excluded and included. Rich growth of Staph. aureus was associated with decreased production levels in first-parity cows. An interaction between rich growth of Staph. aureus and test day relative to time of diagnosis also predicted a decline in milk production in third-parity or older cows. Interaction between sparse growth of Staph. aureus and test day relative to time of

ExEP yield modeling tool and validation test results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morgan, Rhonda; Turmon, Michael; Delacroix, Christian; Savransky, Dmitry; Garrett, Daniel; Lowrance, Patrick; Liu, Xiang Cate; Nunez, Paul

2017-09-01

EXOSIMS is an open-source simulation tool for parametric modeling of the detection yield and characterization of exoplanets. EXOSIMS has been adopted by the Exoplanet Exploration Programs Standards Definition and Evaluation Team (ExSDET) as a common mechanism for comparison of exoplanet mission concept studies. To ensure trustworthiness of the tool, we developed a validation test plan that leverages the Python-language unit-test framework, utilizes integration tests for selected module interactions, and performs end-to-end crossvalidation with other yield tools. This paper presents the test methods and results, with the physics-based tests such as photometry and integration time calculation treated in detail and the functional tests treated summarily. The test case utilized a 4m unobscured telescope with an idealized coronagraph and an exoplanet population from the IPAC radial velocity (RV) exoplanet catalog. The known RV planets were set at quadrature to allow deterministic validation of the calculation of physical parameters, such as working angle, photon counts and integration time. The observing keepout region was tested by generating plots and movies of the targets and the keepout zone over a year. Although the keepout integration test required the interpretation of a user, the test revealed problems in the L2 halo orbit and the parameterization of keepout applied to some solar system bodies, which the development team was able to address. The validation testing of EXOSIMS was performed iteratively with the developers of EXOSIMS and resulted in a more robust, stable, and trustworthy tool that the exoplanet community can use to simulate exoplanet direct-detection missions from probe class, to WFIRST, up to large mission concepts such as HabEx and LUVOIR.

Uncertainty and Surprise: Ideas from the Open Discussion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordan, Michelle E.

Approximately one hundred participants met for three days at a conference entitled "Uncertainty and Surprise: Questions on Working with the Unexpected and Unknowable." There were a diversity of conference participants ranging from researchers in the natural sciences and researchers in the social sciences (business professors, physicists, ethnographers, nursing school deans) to practitioners and executives in public policy and management (business owners, health care managers, high tech executives), all of whom had varying levels of experience and expertise in dealing with uncertainty and surprise. One group held the traditional, statistical view that uncertainty comes from variance and events that are described by usually unimodal probability law. A second group was comfortable on the one hand with phase diagrams and the phase transitions that come from systems with multi-modal distributions, and on the other hand, with deterministic chaos. A third group was comfortable with the emergent events from evolutionary processes that may not have any probability laws at all.

Surprise and Preemption in Soviet Nuclear Strategy

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-04-01

PROGRAM ELEMFNT, PROJECT, TASK AREA ft WORK UNIT NUMBERS NWC Strategic Studies Project 12. REPORT DATE April, 1983 13. NUMBER OF PAGES 66...015 THE NATIONAL WAR COIXKCIE NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIVERSITY STRATEGIC STUDY SURPRISE AND PREEMPTION IN SOVIET NUCLEAR STRATEGY by Dr. Glenn E...TC TAB D Distribution/ Availability Codes {Avail and/or Dist Special B ,& it illL NATIONAL WAR COLLEGD STRATEGIC STUDIES REPORT ABSTRACT

Too much FCC catalyst activity can cut yields

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wichers, W.R.; Upson, L.

1984-03-19

For many people working in the field of catalytic cracking, high equilibrium catalyst activity is inherently good. It is surprising how many times this line of reasoning is accepted by the refiner. There also seems to be something psychologically satisfying in seeing an equilibrium catalyst report where the catalyst activity is reported as a high number. Generally, everyone is happy when the reported activity of equilibrium catalyst is increasing and unhappy when it is going down. In the past, increasing catalyst activity did result in improved operations. For units that operated with substantial amounts of bed cracking, higher activity catalystmore » allowed the amount of bed cracking to be reduced and the relative amount of cracking that occurred in the riser to be increased. The switch from bed to riser cracking decreased catalytic coke make and gasoline overcracking, thus reducing regenerator temperature and improving gasoline yields.« less

Defense Science Board (DSB) Summer Study Report on Strategic Surprise

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-07-01

against changing priorities. The study focused on potential regrets in eight areas and provides recommendations to avoid strategic surprise in those...explore potential changes for  Department of Defense priorities as well as possible actions and hedges to strategic surprise and  avoid   potential  regrets ...similar surprises—and to  avoid   regretting  actions or lack  of action taken today—the study evaluated several key mission and enterprise areas. Some of

Surprises in low-dimensional correlated systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Hsiu-Hau

In this thesis, correlation effects in low-dimensional systems were studied. In particular, we focus on two systems: a point-contact in the quantum-Hall regime under the influence of ac drive and quasi-one-dimensional ladder materials with generic interactions in weak coupling. Powerful techniques, including renormalization group, quantum field theory, operator product expansions, bosonization,...etc., were employed to extract surprising physics out of these strongly fluctuating systems. We first study the effect of an ac drive on the current-voltage (I-V) characteristics of a tunnel junction between two fractional Quantum Hall fluids at filling nu-1 an odd integer. In a semi-classical limit, the tunneling current exhibits mode-locking, which corresponds to plateaus in the I-V curve at integer multiples of I = ef , with f the ac drive frequency. However, the full quantum model exhibits rounded plateaus centered around the quantized current values due to quantum fluctuations. The locations of these plateaus can serve as an indirect hint of fractional charges. Switching attentions to quasi-one-dimensional coupled-chain systems, we present a systematic weak-coupling renormalization group (RG) technique and find that generally broad regions of the phase space of the ladder materials are unstable to pairing, usually with approximate d-wave symmetry. The dimensional crossovers from 1D to 2D were also discussed. Carbon nanotubes as possible candidates that display such unconventional pairing and interesting physics in weak coupling were discussed. Quite surprisingly, a hidden symmetry was found in the weakly-coupled two-leg ladder. A perturbative renormalization group analysis reveals that at half-filling the model scales onto an exactly soluble SO(8) symmetric Gross-Neveu model. Integrability of the Gross-Neveu model is employed to extract the exact energies, degeneracies and quantum numbers of all the low energy excited states, which fall into degenerate SO(8

NASA Earth Science Research Results for Improved Regional Crop Yield Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mali, P.; O'Hara, C. G.; Shrestha, B.; Sinclair, T. R.; G de Goncalves, L. G.; Salado Navarro, L. R.

2007-12-01

National agencies such as USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), Production Estimation and Crop Assessment Division (PECAD) work specifically to analyze and generate timely crop yield estimates that help define national as well as global food policies. The USDA/FAS/PECAD utilizes a Decision Support System (DSS) called CADRE (Crop Condition and Data Retrieval Evaluation) mainly through an automated database management system that integrates various meteorological datasets, crop and soil models, and remote sensing data; providing significant contribution to the national and international crop production estimates. The "Sinclair" soybean growth model has been used inside CADRE DSS as one of the crop models. This project uses Sinclair model (a semi-mechanistic crop growth model) for its potential to be effectively used in a geo-processing environment with remote-sensing-based inputs. The main objective of this proposed work is to verify, validate and benchmark current and future NASA earth science research results for the benefit in the operational decision making process of the PECAD/CADRE DSS. For this purpose, the NASA South American Land Data Assimilation System (SALDAS) meteorological dataset is tested for its applicability as a surrogate meteorological input in the Sinclair model meteorological input requirements. Similarly, NASA sensor MODIS products is tested for its applicability in the improvement of the crop yield prediction through improving precision of planting date estimation, plant vigor and growth monitoring. The project also analyzes simulated Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite (VIIRS, a future NASA sensor) vegetation product for its applicability in crop growth prediction to accelerate the process of transition of VIIRS research results for the operational use of USDA/FAS/PECAD DSS. The research results will help in providing improved decision making capacity to the USDA/FAS/PECAD DSS through improved vegetation growth monitoring from high

A New Sputnik Surprise?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lowman, Paul D., Jr.; Smith, David E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

This paper suggests that a new "Sputnik surprise" in the form of a joint Chinese-Russian lunar base program may emerge in this decade. The Moon as a whole has been shown to be territory of strategic value, with discovery of large amounts of hydrogen (probably water ice) at the lunar poles and helium 3 everywhere in the soil, in addition to the Moon's scientific value as an object of study and as a platform for astronomy. There is thus good reason for a return to the Moon, robotically or manned. Relations between China and Russia have thawed since the mid-1990s, and the two countries have a formal space cooperation pact. It is argued here that a manned lunar program would be feasible within 5 years, using modern technology and proven spacecraft and launch vehicles. The combination of Russian lunar hardware with Chinese space technology would permit the two countries together to take the lead in solar system exploration in the 21st century.

Probability and surprisal in auditory comprehension of morphologically complex words.

PubMed

Balling, Laura Winther; Baayen, R Harald

2012-10-01

Two auditory lexical decision experiments document for morphologically complex words two points at which the probability of a target word given the evidence shifts dramatically. The first point is reached when morphologically unrelated competitors are no longer compatible with the evidence. Adapting terminology from Marslen-Wilson (1984), we refer to this as the word's initial uniqueness point (UP1). The second point is the complex uniqueness point (CUP) introduced by Balling and Baayen (2008), at which morphologically related competitors become incompatible with the input. Later initial as well as complex uniqueness points predict longer response latencies. We argue that the effects of these uniqueness points arise due to the large surprisal (Levy, 2008) carried by the phonemes at these uniqueness points, and provide independent evidence that how cumulative surprisal builds up in the course of the word co-determines response latencies. The presence of effects of surprisal, both at the initial uniqueness point of complex words, and cumulatively throughout the word, challenges the Shortlist B model of Norris and McQueen (2008), and suggests that a Bayesian approach to auditory comprehension requires complementation from information theory in order to do justice to the cognitive cost of updating probability distributions over lexical candidates. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Finding the SurPriSe: A Case Study of a Faculty Learning Community

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Michel, Roberta M.

2014-01-01

This article details a faculty learning community (FLC) that started in 2009 on the campus of a Midwestern University and has evolved into an interdisciplinary research, teaching and social community of practice and learning called SurPriSe. SurPriSe is an acronym that reflects the interest area of the FLC; Sur for surveillance, Pri for privacy,…

Revisit: A Surprising Demonstration of Total Internal Reflection

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Jiwon; Cha, Yu Wha; Jung, Yeon Su; Oh, Eun Ju; Moon, Ye Lin; Kim, Jung Bog

2016-01-01

Melton demonstrated a surprising disappearance using total internal reflection. When he put a Florence flask filled with marbles into a water tank and looked straight down from directly above the flask, he was only able to see marbles above a certain water level. When he added more water into the tank above the top line of the marbles, all of the…

Dealing With Unexpected Events on the Flight Deck: A Conceptual Model of Startle and Surprise

PubMed Central

Landman, Annemarie; Groen, Eric L.; van Paassen, M. M. (René); Bronkhorst, Adelbert W.; Mulder, Max

2017-01-01

Objective: A conceptual model is proposed in order to explain pilot performance in surprising and startling situations. Background: Today’s debate around loss of control following in-flight events and the implementation of upset prevention and recovery training has highlighted the importance of pilots’ ability to deal with unexpected events. Unexpected events, such as technical malfunctions or automation surprises, potentially induce a “startle factor” that may significantly impair performance. Method: Literature on surprise, startle, resilience, and decision making is reviewed, and findings are combined into a conceptual model. A number of recent flight incident and accident cases are then used to illustrate elements of the model. Results: Pilot perception and actions are conceptualized as being guided by “frames,” or mental knowledge structures that were previously learned. Performance issues in unexpected situations can often be traced back to insufficient adaptation of one’s frame to the situation. It is argued that such sensemaking or reframing processes are especially vulnerable to issues caused by startle or acute stress. Conclusion: Interventions should focus on (a) increasing the supply and quality of pilot frames (e.g., though practicing a variety of situations), (b) increasing pilot reframing skills (e.g., through the use of unpredictability in training scenarios), and (c) improving pilot metacognitive skills, so that inappropriate automatic responses to startle and surprise can be avoided. Application: The model can be used to explain pilot behavior in accident cases, to design experiments and training simulations, to teach pilots metacognitive skills, and to identify intervention methods. PMID:28777917

Meta-analysis of climate impacts and uncertainty on crop yields in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knox, Jerry; Daccache, Andre; Hess, Tim; Haro, David

2016-11-01

Future changes in temperature, rainfall and soil moisture could threaten agricultural land use and crop productivity in Europe, with major consequences for food security. We assessed the projected impacts of climate change on the yield of seven major crop types (viz wheat, barley, maize, potato, sugar beet, rice and rye) grown in Europe using a systematic review (SR) and meta-analysis of data reported in 41 original publications from an initial screening of 1748 studies. Our approach adopted an established SR procedure developed by the Centre for Evidence Based Conservation constrained by inclusion criteria and defined methods for literature searches, data extraction, meta-analysis and synthesis. Whilst similar studies exist to assess climate impacts on crop yield in Africa and South Asia, surprisingly, no comparable synthesis has been undertaken for Europe. Based on the reported results (n = 729) we show that the projected change in average yield in Europe for the seven crops by the 2050s is +8%. For wheat and sugar beet, average yield changes of +14% and +15% are projected, respectively. There were strong regional differences with crop impacts in northern Europe being higher (+14%) and more variable compared to central (+6%) and southern (+5) Europe. Maize is projected to suffer the largest negative mean change in southern Europe (-11%). Evidence of climate impacts on yield was extensive for wheat, maize, sugar beet and potato, but very limited for barley, rice and rye. The implications for supporting climate adaptation policy and informing climate impacts crop science research in Europe are discussed.

Surprise and opportunity for learning in Grand Canyon: the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program

USGS Publications Warehouse

Melis, Theodore S.; Walters, Carl; Korman, Josh

2015-01-01

With a focus on resources of the Colorado River ecosystem below Glen Canyon Dam, the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program has included a variety of experimental policy tests, ranging from manipulation of water releases from the dam to removal of non-native fish within Grand Canyon National Park. None of these field-scale experiments has yet produced unambiguous results in terms of management prescriptions. But there has been adaptive learning, mostly from unanticipated or surprising resource responses relative to predictions from ecosystem modeling. Surprise learning opportunities may often be viewed with dismay by some stakeholders who might not be clear about the purpose of science and modeling in adaptive management. However, the experimental results from the Glen Canyon Dam program actually represent scientific successes in terms of revealing new opportunities for developing better river management policies. A new long-term experimental management planning process for Glen Canyon Dam operations, started in 2011 by the U.S. Department of the Interior, provides an opportunity to refocus management objectives, identify and evaluate key uncertainties about the influence of dam releases, and refine monitoring for learning over the next several decades. Adaptive learning since 1995 is critical input to this long-term planning effort. Embracing uncertainty and surprise outcomes revealed by monitoring and ecosystem modeling will likely continue the advancement of resource objectives below the dam, and may also promote efficient learning in other complex programs.

Surprisal analysis characterizes the free energy time course of cancer cells undergoing epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition.

PubMed

Zadran, Sohila; Arumugam, Rameshkumar; Herschman, Harvey; Phelps, Michael E; Levine, R D

2014-09-09

The epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition (EMT) initiates the invasive and metastatic behavior of many epithelial cancers. Mechanisms underlying EMT are not fully known. Surprisal analysis of mRNA time course data from lung and pancreatic cancer cells stimulated to undergo TGF-β1-induced EMT identifies two phenotypes. Examination of the time course for these phenotypes reveals that EMT reprogramming is a multistep process characterized by initiation, maturation, and stabilization stages that correlate with changes in cell metabolism. Surprisal analysis characterizes the free energy time course of the expression levels throughout the transition in terms of two state variables. The landscape of the free energy changes during the EMT for the lung cancer cells shows a stable intermediate state. Existing data suggest this is the previously proposed maturation stage. Using a single-cell ATP assay, we demonstrate that the TGF-β1-induced EMT for lung cancer cells, particularly during the maturation stage, coincides with a metabolic shift resulting in increased cytosolic ATP levels. Surprisal analysis also characterizes the absolute expression levels of the mRNAs and thereby examines the homeostasis of the transcription system during EMT.

Estimations of expectedness and potential surprise in possibility theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prade, Henri; Yager, Ronald R.

1992-01-01

This note investigates how various ideas of 'expectedness' can be captured in the framework of possibility theory. Particularly, we are interested in trying to introduce estimates of the kind of lack of surprise expressed by people when saying 'I would not be surprised that...' before an event takes place, or by saying 'I knew it' after its realization. In possibility theory, a possibility distribution is supposed to model the relative levels of mutually exclusive alternatives in a set, or equivalently, the alternatives are assumed to be rank-ordered according to their level of possibility to take place. Four basic set-functions associated with a possibility distribution, including standard possibility and necessity measures, are discussed from the point of view of what they estimate when applied to potential events. Extensions of these estimates based on the notions of Q-projection or OWA operators are proposed when only significant parts of the possibility distribution are retained in the evaluation. The case of partially-known possibility distributions is also considered. Some potential applications are outlined.

The "surprise question" for predicting death in seriously ill patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Downar, James; Goldman, Russell; Pinto, Ruxandra; Englesakis, Marina; Adhikari, Neill K J

2017-04-03

The surprise question - "Would I be surprised if this patient died in the next 12 months?" - has been used to identify patients at high risk of death who might benefit from palliative care services. Our objective was to systematically review the performance characteristics of the surprise question in predicting death. We searched multiple electronic databases from inception to 2016 to identify studies that prospectively screened patients with the surprise question and reported on death at 6 to 18 months. We constructed models of hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristics (sROCs) to determine prognostic performance. Sixteen studies (17 cohorts, 11 621 patients) met the selection criteria. For the outcome of death at 6 to 18 months, the pooled prognostic characteristics were sensitivity 67.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] 55.7%-76.7%), specificity 80.2% (73.3%-85.6%), positive likelihood ratio 3.4 (95% CI 2.8-4.1), negative likelihood ratio 0.41 (95% CI 0.32-0.54), positive predictive value 37.1% (95% CI 30.2%-44.6%) and negative predictive value 93.1% (95% CI 91.0%-94.8%). The surprise question had worse discrimination in patients with noncancer illness (area under sROC curve 0.77 [95% CI 0.73-0.81]) than in patients with cancer (area under sROC curve 0.83 [95% CI 0.79-0.87; p = 0.02 for difference]). Most studies had a moderate to high risk of bias, often because they had a low or unknown participation rate or had missing data. The surprise question performs poorly to modestly as a predictive tool for death, with worse performance in noncancer illness. Further studies are needed to develop accurate tools to identify patients with palliative care needs and to assess the surprise question for this purpose. © 2017 Canadian Medical Association or its licensors.

Land use and sediment yield

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leopold, Luna Bergere; Thomas, William L.

1956-01-01

When the vegetal cover is removed from a land surface, the rate of removal of the soil material, at least initially, increases rapidly. So well known is this principle that it hardly needs restatement.If attention is focused on any individual drainage basin in its natural state, large or small, and inquiry is made as to the rate of denudation, a quantitative answer is not easily obtained. The possible error in any computation of rate of sediment production from any given drainage basin is considerable. Significant variations are found in sediment yields from closely adjacent watersheds which appear to be generally similar. To make a quantitative evaluation of the change in the rate of denudation when the natural vegetation is disturbed is, therefore, even more difficult. Considering the fact that "soil conservation" has been promoted to the status of a science, our lack of ability to answer what is apparently so simple a question may seem surprising. Let us look at some of the reasons.

Brain dead or not? CT angiogram yielding false-negative result on brain death confirmation.

PubMed

Johnston, Robyn; Kaliaperumal, Chandrasekaran; Wyse, Gerald; Kaar, George

2013-01-08

We describe a case of severe traumatic brain injury with multiple facial and skull fractures where CT angiogram (CTA) failed to yield a definite result of brain death as an ancillary test. A 28-year-old man was admitted following a road traffic accident with a Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) of 3/15 and fixed pupils. CT brain revealed uncal herniation and diffuse cerebral oedema with associated multiple facial and skull fractures. 72 h later, his clinical condition remained the same with high intracranial pressure refractory to medical management. Clinical confirmation on brain death was not feasible owing to facial injuries. A CTA, performed to determine brain perfusion, yielded a 'false-negative' result. Skull fractures have possibly led to venous prominence in the cortical and deep venous drainage system. This point needs to be borne in mind while considering CTA as an ancillary test to confirm brain death.

Rethinking Strategic Surprise: Defence Planning Under Bounded Uncertainty

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-08-01

souligne Betts : « On n‟a jamais vu de frappes venues de nulle part. Les attaques soudaines se produisent après des conflits politiques prolongés...came as a complete surprise to most Americans, the threat posed by al Qaeda and its mysterious leader Osama bin Laden had been known to the American...activities, the seriousness of the al Qaeda threat began to reveal itself. According to the 9/11 Commission Report, By 1997, officers in the [Central

Primary Care Practice: Uncertainty and Surprise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crabtree, Benjamin F.

I will focus my comments on uncertainty and surprise in primary care practices. I am a medical anthropologist by training, and have been a full-time researcher in family medicine for close to twenty years. In this talk I want to look at primary care practices as complex systems, particularly taking the perspective of translating evidence into practice. I am going to discuss briefly the challenges we have in primary care, and in medicine in general, of translating new evidence into the everyday care of patients. To do this, I will look at two studies that we have conducted on family practices, then think about how practices can be best characterized as complex adaptive systems. Finally, I will focus on the implications of this portrayal for disseminating new knowledge into practice.

Measurement of fission yields and isomeric yield ratios at IGISOL

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pomp, Stephan; Mattera, Andrea; Rakopoulos, Vasileios; Al-Adili, Ali; Lantz, Mattias; Solders, Andreas; Jansson, Kaj; Prokofiev, Alexander V.; Eronen, Tommi; Gorelov, Dimitri; Jokinen, Ari; Kankainen, Anu; Moore, Iain D.; Penttilä, Heikki; Rinta-Antila, Sami

2018-03-01

Data on fission yields and isomeric yield ratios (IYR) are tools to study the fission process, in particular the generation of angular momentum. We use the IGISOL facility with the Penning trap JYFLTRAP in Jyväskylä, Finland, for such measurements on 232Th and natU targets. Previously published fission yield data from IGISOL concern the 232Th(p,f) and 238U(p,f) reactions at 25 and 50 MeV. Recently, a neutron source, using the Be(p,n) reaction, has been developed, installed and tested. We summarize the results for (p,f) focusing on the first measurement of IYR by direct ion counting. We also present first results for IYR and relative yields for Sn and Sb isotopes in the 128-133 mass range from natU(n,f) based on γ-spectrometry. We find a staggering behaviour in the cumulative yields for Sn and a shift in the independent fission yields for Sb as compared to current evaluations. Plans for the future experimental program on fission yields and IYR measurements are discussed.

Brain dead or not? CT angiogram yielding false-negative result on brain death confirmation

PubMed Central

Johnston, Robyn; Kaliaperumal, Chandrasekaran; Wyse, Gerald; Kaar, George

2013-01-01

We describe a case of severe traumatic brain injury with multiple facial and skull fractures where CT angiogram (CTA) failed to yield a definite result of brain death as an ancillary test. A 28-year-old man was admitted following a road traffic accident with a Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) of 3/15 and fixed pupils. CT brain revealed uncal herniation and diffuse cerebral oedema with associated multiple facial and skull fractures. 72 h later, his clinical condition remained the same with high intracranial pressure refractory to medical management. Clinical confirmation on brain death was not feasible owing to facial injuries. A CTA, performed to determine brain perfusion, yielded a ‘false-negative’ result. Skull fractures have possibly led to venous prominence in the cortical and deep venous drainage system. This point needs to be borne in mind while considering CTA as an ancillary test to confirm brain death. PMID:23302550

Optimizing rice yields while minimizing yield-scaled global warming potential.

PubMed

Pittelkow, Cameron M; Adviento-Borbe, Maria A; van Kessel, Chris; Hill, James E; Linquist, Bruce A

2014-05-01

To meet growing global food demand with limited land and reduced environmental impact, agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are increasingly evaluated with respect to crop productivity, i.e., on a yield-scaled as opposed to area basis. Here, we compiled available field data on CH4 and N2 O emissions from rice production systems to test the hypothesis that in response to fertilizer nitrogen (N) addition, yield-scaled global warming potential (GWP) will be minimized at N rates that maximize yields. Within each study, yield N surplus was calculated to estimate deficit or excess N application rates with respect to the optimal N rate (defined as the N rate at which maximum yield was achieved). Relationships between yield N surplus and GHG emissions were assessed using linear and nonlinear mixed-effects models. Results indicate that yields increased in response to increasing N surplus when moving from deficit to optimal N rates. At N rates contributing to a yield N surplus, N2 O and yield-scaled N2 O emissions increased exponentially. In contrast, CH4 emissions were not impacted by N inputs. Accordingly, yield-scaled CH4 emissions decreased with N addition. Overall, yield-scaled GWP was minimized at optimal N rates, decreasing by 21% compared to treatments without N addition. These results are unique compared to aerobic cropping systems in which N2 O emissions are the primary contributor to GWP, meaning yield-scaled GWP may not necessarily decrease for aerobic crops when yields are optimized by N fertilizer addition. Balancing gains in agricultural productivity with climate change concerns, this work supports the concept that high rice yields can be achieved with minimal yield-scaled GWP through optimal N application rates. Moreover, additional improvements in N use efficiency may further reduce yield-scaled GWP, thereby strengthening the economic and environmental sustainability of rice systems. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Surprising results regarding MASCC members' beliefs about spiritual care

PubMed Central

Ramondetta, Lois M.; Sun, Charlotte; Surbone, Antonella; Olver, Ian; Ripamonti, Carla; Konishi, Tatsuya; Baider, Lea; Johnson, Judith

2014-01-01

Background The purpose of the study was to better understand the practice and meaning of spiritual care among cancer care professionals and ultimately provide a rationale for developing internationally focused spiritual care guidelines. Methods We developed a 16-question survey to assess the spiritual care practices. We sent 635 MASCC members 4 e-mails each inviting them to complete the survey via an online survey service. Demographic information was collected. The results were tabulated, and summary statistics were used to describe the results. Results Two hundred seventy-one MASCC members (42.7%) from 41 countries completed the survey. Of the respondents, 50.5% were age ≤50 years, 161 (59.4%) were women and 123 (45.4%) had ≥20 years of cancer care experience. The two most common definitions of spiritual care the respondents specified were “offering emotional support as part of addressing psychosocial needs” (49.8%) and “alleviating spiritual/existential pain/suffering” (42.4%). Whether respondents considered themselves to be “spiritual” correlated with how they rated the importance of spiritual care (P≤0.001). One hundred six respondents (39.1%) reported that they believe it is their role to explore the spiritual concerns of their cancer patients, and 33 respondents (12.2%) reported that they do not feel it is their role. Ninety-one respondents (33.6%) reported that they seldom provide adequate spiritual care, and 71 respondents (26.2%) reported that they did not feel they could adequately provide spiritual care. Conclusions The majority of MASCC members who completed the survey reported that spiritual care plays an important role in the total care of cancer patients, but few respondents from this supportive care focused organization actually provide spiritual care. However, in order to be able to provide a rationale for developing spiritual care guidelines, we need to understand how to emphasize the importance of spiritual care and at minimum

Long-term integrated studies show complex and surprising effects of climate change in northern hardwood forests

Treesearch

Peter M. Groffman; Lindsey Rustad; Pamela H. Templer; John Campbell; Lynn M. Christenson; Nina K. Lany; Anne M. Socci; Matthew A. Vadeboncoeur; Paul Schaberg; Geoffrey F. Wilson; Charles T. Driscoll; Timothy J. Fahey; Melany C. Fisk; Christine L. Goodale; Mark B. Green; Steven P. Hamburg; Chris E. Johnson; Myron J. Mitchell; Jennifer L. Morse; Linda H. Pardo; Nicholas L. Rodenhouse

2012-01-01

Evaluations of the local effects of global change are often confounded by the interactions of natural and anthropogenic factors that overshadow the effects of climate changes on ecosystems. Long-term watershed and natural elevation gradient studies at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest and in the surrounding region show surprising results demonstrating the effects...

Increased phytochrome B alleviates density effects on tuber yield of field potato crops.

PubMed

Boccalandro, Hernán E; Ploschuk, Edmundo L; Yanovsky, Marcelo J; Sánchez, Rodolfo A; Gatz, Christiane; Casal, Jorge J

2003-12-01

The possibility that reduced photomorphogenic responses could increase field crop yield has been suggested often, but experimental support is still lacking. Here, we report that ectopic expression of the Arabidopsis PHYB (phytochrome B) gene, a photoreceptor involved in detecting red to far-red light ratio associated with plant density, can increase tuber yield in field-grown transgenic potato (Solanum tuberosum) crops. Surprisingly, this effect was larger at very high densities, despite the intense reduction in the red to far-red light ratios and the concomitant narrowed differences in active phytochrome B levels between wild type and transgenics at these densities. Increased PHYB expression not only altered the ability of plants to respond to light signals, but they also modified the light environment itself. This combination resulted in larger effects of enhanced PHYB expression on tuber number and crop photosynthesis at high planting densities. The PHYB transgenics showed higher maximum photosynthesis in leaves of all strata of the canopy, and this effect was largely due to increased leaf stomatal conductance. We propose that enhanced PHYB expression could be used in breeding programs to shift optimum planting densities to higher levels.

Recent Results from Lohengrin on Fission Yields and Related Decay Properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serot, O.; Amouroux, C.; Bidaud, A.; Capellan, N.; Chabod, S.; Ebran, A.; Faust, H.; Kessedjian, G.; Köester, U.; Letourneau, A.; Litaize, O.; Martin, F.; Materna, T.; Mathieu, L.; Panebianco, S.; Regis, J.-M.; Rudigier, M.; Sage, C.; Urban, W.

2014-05-01

The Lohengrin mass spectrometer is one of the 40 instruments built around the reactor of the Institute Laue-Langevin (France) which delivers a very intense thermal neutron flux. Usually, Lohengrin was combined with a high-resolution ionization chamber in order to obtain good nuclear charge discrimination within a mass line, yielding an accurate isotopic yield determination. Unfortunately, this experimental procedure can only be applied for fission products with a nuclear charge less than about 42, i.e. in the light fission fragment region. Since 2008, a large collaboration has started with the aim of studying various fission aspects, mainly in the heavy fragment region. For that, a new experimental setup which allows isotopic identification by γ-ray spectrometry has been developed and validated. This technique was applied on the 239Pu(nth,f) reaction where about 65 fission product yields were measured with an uncertainty that has been reduced on average by a factor of 2 compared with what was that previously available in nuclear data libraries. The same γ-ray spectrometric technique is currently being applied to the study of the 233U(nth,f) reaction. Our aim is to deduce charge and mass distributions of the fission products and to complete the experimental data that exist mainly for light fission fragments. The measurement of 41 mass yields from the 241Am(2nth,f) reaction has been also performed. In addition to these activities on fission yield measurements, various new nanosecond isomers were discovered. Their presence can be revealed from a strong deformed ionic charge distribution compared to a 'normal' Gaussian shape. Finally, a new neutron long-counter detector designed to have a detection efficiency independent of the detected neutron energy has been built. Combining this neutron device with a Germanium detector and a beta-ray detector array allowed us to measure the beta-delayed neutron emission probability Pn of some important fission products for reactor

29 years of surprises from hotspots: A personal perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Students Of Eao, .; Okal, E. A.

2003-12-01

I arrived at Caltech on 26 August 1974, to begin my graduate studies at the Seismo Lab, then under the Directorship of Don L. Anderson. These were the days, among other topics, of Don's famous multilingual footnote on the "definition..., antecedents..., supporters and detractors" of the concept of "plume" [GSA Bull., 86, p. 1593, 1975], and even though I was not to set foot on a hotspot island until my first trip to Tahiti in December 1977 (those stopovers at Keflavik on the 199-dollar Loftleidir runs did not really count), I quickly acquired a mild form of Don's contagious fascination for the activity and structure of hotspots. As a tribute to Don, I have chosen to recap here a few surprising results obtained, with the help of my students, past and present, over several decades of work on the seismological sources and structures in the neighborhood of hotspot islands.

Whiskey springs long-term coast redwood density management; final growth, sprout, and yield results

Treesearch

Lynn A. Webb; James L. Lindquist; Erik Wahl; Andrew Hubb

2012-01-01

Multi-decadal studies of commercial and precommercial thinning in redwood stands are rare and consequently of value. The Whiskey Springs study at Jackson Demonstration State Forest has a data set spanning 35 years. In addition to growth and yield response to commercial thinning, the results provide important information for evaluating regeneration and...

Is Yield Increase Sufficient to Achieve Food Security in China?

PubMed Central

Wei, Xing; Zhang, Zhao; Shi, Peijun; Wang, Pin; Chen, Yi; Song, Xiao; Tao, Fulu

2015-01-01

Increasing demand for food, driven by unprecedented population growth and increasing consumption, will keep challenging food security in China. Although cereal yields have substantially improved during the last three decades, whether it will keep thriving to meet the increasing demand is not known yet. Thus, an integrated analysis on the trends of crop yield and cultivated area is essential to better understand current state of food security in China, especially on county scale. So far, yield stagnation has extensively dominated the main cereal-growing areas across China. Rice yield is facing the most severe stagnation that 53.9% counties tracked in the study have stagnated significantly, followed by maize (42.4%) and wheat (41.9%). As another important element for production sustainability, but often neglected is the planted area patterns. It has been further demonstrated that the loss in productive arable land for rice and wheat have dramatically increased the pressure on achieving food security. Not only a great deal of the planted areas have stagnated since 1980, but also collapsed. 48.4% and 54.4% of rice- and wheat-growing counties have lost their cropland areas to varying degrees. Besides, 27.6% and 35.8% of them have retrograded below the level of the 1980s. The combined influence (both loss in yield and area) has determined the crop sustainable production in China to be pessimistic for rice and wheat, and consequently no surprise to find that more than half of counties rank a lower level of production sustainability. Therefore, given the potential yield increase in wheat and maize, as well as substantial area loss of rice and wheat, the possible targeted adaptation measures for both yield and cropping area is required at county scale. Moreover, policies on food trade, alongside advocation of low calorie diets, reducing food loss and waste can help to enhance food security. PMID:25680193

Team play with a powerful and independent agent: operational experiences and automation surprises on the Airbus A-320.

PubMed

Sarter, N B; Woods, D D

1997-12-01

Research and operational experience have shown that one of the major problems with pilot-automation interaction is a lack of mode awareness (i.e., the current and future status and behavior of the automation). As a result, pilots sometimes experience so-called automation surprises when the automation takes an unexpected action or fails to behave as anticipated. A lack of mode awareness and automation surprises can he viewed as symptoms of a mismatch between human and machine properties and capabilities. Changes in automation design can therefore he expected to affect the likelihood and nature of problems encountered by pilots. Previous studies have focused exclusively on early generation "glass cockpit" aircraft that were designed based on a similar automation philosophy. To find out whether similar difficulties with maintaining mode awareness are encountered on more advanced aircraft, a corpus of automation surprises was gathered from pilots of the Airbus A-320, an aircraft characterized by high levels of autonomy, authority, and complexity. To understand the underlying reasons for reported breakdowns in human-automation coordination, we also asked pilots about their monitoring strategies and their experiences with and attitude toward the unique design of flight controls on this aircraft.

Team play with a powerful and independent agent: operational experiences and automation surprises on the Airbus A-320

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sarter, N. B.; Woods, D. D.

1997-01-01

Research and operational experience have shown that one of the major problems with pilot-automation interaction is a lack of mode awareness (i.e., the current and future status and behavior of the automation). As a result, pilots sometimes experience so-called automation surprises when the automation takes an unexpected action or fails to behave as anticipated. A lack of mode awareness and automation surprises can he viewed as symptoms of a mismatch between human and machine properties and capabilities. Changes in automation design can therefore he expected to affect the likelihood and nature of problems encountered by pilots. Previous studies have focused exclusively on early generation "glass cockpit" aircraft that were designed based on a similar automation philosophy. To find out whether similar difficulties with maintaining mode awareness are encountered on more advanced aircraft, a corpus of automation surprises was gathered from pilots of the Airbus A-320, an aircraft characterized by high levels of autonomy, authority, and complexity. To understand the underlying reasons for reported breakdowns in human-automation coordination, we also asked pilots about their monitoring strategies and their experiences with and attitude toward the unique design of flight controls on this aircraft.

Surprisal analysis of Glioblastoma Multiform (GBM) microRNA dynamics unveils tumor specific phenotype.

PubMed

Zadran, Sohila; Remacle, Francoise; Levine, Raphael

2014-01-01

Gliomablastoma multiform (GBM) is the most fatal form of all brain cancers in humans. Currently there are limited diagnostic tools for GBM detection. Here, we applied surprisal analysis, a theory grounded in thermodynamics, to unveil how biomolecule energetics, specifically a redistribution of free energy amongst microRNAs (miRNAs), results in a system deviating from a non-cancer state to the GBM cancer -specific phenotypic state. Utilizing global miRNA microarray expression data of normal and GBM patients tumors, surprisal analysis characterizes a miRNA system response capable of distinguishing GBM samples from normal tissue biopsy samples. We indicate that the miRNAs contributing to this system behavior is a disease phenotypic state specific to GBM and is therefore a unique GBM-specific thermodynamic signature. MiRNAs implicated in the regulation of stochastic signaling processes crucial in the hallmarks of human cancer, dominate this GBM-cancer phenotypic state. With this theory, we were able to distinguish with high fidelity GBM patients solely by monitoring the dynamics of miRNAs present in patients' biopsy samples. We anticipate that the GBM-specific thermodynamic signature will provide a critical translational tool in better characterizing cancer types and in the development of future therapeutics for GBM.

Infants’ Looking to Surprising Events: When Eye-Tracking Reveals More than Looking Time

PubMed Central

Yeung, H. Henny; Denison, Stephanie; Johnson, Scott P.

2016-01-01

Research on infants’ reasoning abilities often rely on looking times, which are longer to surprising and unexpected visual scenes compared to unsurprising and expected ones. Few researchers have examined more precise visual scanning patterns in these scenes, and so, here, we recorded 8- to 11-month-olds’ gaze with an eye tracker as we presented a sampling event whose outcome was either surprising, neutral, or unsurprising: A red (or yellow) ball was drawn from one of three visible containers populated 0%, 50%, or 100% with identically colored balls. When measuring looking time to the whole scene, infants were insensitive to the likelihood of the sampling event, replicating failures in similar paradigms. Nevertheless, a new analysis of visual scanning showed that infants did spend more time fixating specific areas-of-interest as a function of the event likelihood. The drawn ball and its associated container attracted more looking than the other containers in the 0% condition, but this pattern was weaker in the 50% condition, and even less strong in the 100% condition. Results suggest that measuring where infants look may be more sensitive than simply how much looking there is to the whole scene. The advantages of eye tracking measures over traditional looking measures are discussed. PMID:27926920

The Z {yields} cc-bar {yields} {gamma}{gamma}*, Z {yields} bb-bar {yields} {gamma}{gamma}* triangle diagrams and the Z {yields} {gamma}{psi}, Z {yields} {gamma}Y decays

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Achasov, N. N., E-mail: achasov@math.nsc.ru

2011-03-15

The approach to the Z {yields} {gamma}{psi} and Z {yields} {gamma}Y decay study is presented in detail, based on the sum rules for the Z {yields} cc-bar {yields} {gamma}{gamma}* and Z {yields} bb-bar {yields} {gamma}{gamma}* amplitudes and their derivatives. The branching ratios of the Z {yields} {gamma}{psi} and Z {yields} {gamma}Y decays are calculated for different hypotheses on saturation of the sum rules. The lower bounds of {Sigma}{sub {psi}} BR(Z {yields} {gamma}{psi}) = 1.95 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -7} and {Sigma}{sub {upsilon}} BR(Z {yields} {gamma}Y) = 7.23 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -7} are found. Deviations from the lower bounds are discussed, including the possibilitymore » of BR(Z {yields} {gamma}J/{psi}(1S)) {approx} BR(Z {yields} {gamma}Y(1S)) {approx} 10{sup -6}, that could be probably measured in LHC. The angular distributions in the Z {yields} {gamma}{psi} and Z {yields} {gamma}Y decays are also calculated.« less

Affective and cognitive validation of thoughts: An appraisal perspective on anger, disgust, surprise, and awe.

PubMed

Briñol, Pablo; Petty, Richard E; Stavraki, Maria; Lamprinakos, Grigorios; Wagner, Benjamin; Díaz, Darío

2018-05-01

Anger, disgust, surprise, and awe are multifaceted emotions. Both anger and disgust are associated with feeling unpleasant as well as experiencing a sense of confidence, whereas surprise and awe tend to be more pleasant emotions that are associated with doubt. Most prior work has examined how appraisals (confidence, pleasantness) lead people to experience different emotions or to experience different levels of intensity within the same emotion. Instead, the current research focused on the consequences (rather the antecedents) of appraisals of emotion, and it focuses specifically on the consequences for thought usage rather than the consequences for generating many or few thoughts. We show that when these four emotions are induced following thought generation, thoughts can be used either more or less with each emotion depending on whether the pleasantness/unpleasantness or confidence/doubt appraisal is made salient. In five experiments, it was predicted and found that anger and disgust following thought generation led to more thought use than surprise and awe when a confidence appraisal for the emotion was encouraged, but led to less thought use than surprise and awe when a pleasantness appraisal was made salient. The current studies are the first to reveal that different appraisals can lead to different (even opposite) outcomes on thought usage within the same experimental design. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Building Relationships, Yielding Results: How Superintendents Can Work with School Boards to Create Productive Teams

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hackett, Julie L.

2015-01-01

In "Building Relationships, Yielding Results," the seasoned superintendent of an urban school district provides a clear road map for effective collaboration with school boards and the type of relationship-building required to achieve long-term, sustainable reforms. Instead of keeping school board members at arm's length or inundating…

Specific yield: compilation of specific yields for various materials

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, A.I.

1967-01-01

Specific yield is defined as the ratio of (1) the volume of water that a saturated rock or soil will yield by gravity to (2) the total volume of the rock or soft. Specific yield is usually expressed as a percentage. The value is not definitive, because the quantity of water that will drain by gravity depends on variables such as duration of drainage, temperature, mineral composition of the water, and various physical characteristics of the rock or soil under consideration. Values of specific yields nevertheless offer a convenient means by which hydrologists can estimate the water-yielding capacities of earth materials and, as such, are very useful in hydrologic studies. The present report consists mostly of direct or modified quotations from many selected reports that present and evaluate methods for determining specific yield, limitations of those methods, and results of the determinations made on a wide variety of rock and soil materials. Although no particular values are recommended in this report, a table summarizes values of specific yield, and their averages, determined for 10 rock textures. The following is an abstract of the table. [Table

Acid soil infertility effects on peanut yields and yield components

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blamey, F.P.C.

1983-01-01

The interpretation of soil amelioration experiments with peanuts is made difficult by the unpredictibility of the crop and by the many factors altered when ameliorating acid soils. The present study was conducted to investigate the effects of lime and gypsum applications on peanut kernel yield via the three first order yield components, pods per ha, kernels per pod, and kernel mass. On an acid medium sandy loam soil (typic Plinthustult), liming resulted in a highly significant kernel yield increase of 117% whereas gypsum applications were of no significant benefit. As indicated by path coefficient analysis, an increase in the numbermore » of pods per ha was markedly more important in increasing yield than an increase in either the number of kernels per pod or kernel mass. Furthermore, exch. Al was found to be particularly detrimental to pod number. It was postulated that poor peanut yields resulting from acid soil infertility were mainly due to the depressive effect of exch. Al on pod number. Exch. Ca appeared to play a secondary role by ameliorating the adverse effects of exch. Al.« less

Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, James W. C.; Alley, Richard B.; Archer, David E.; Barnosky, Anthony D.; Dunlea, Edward; Foley, Jonathan; Fu, Rong; Holland, Marika M.; Lozier, M. Susan; Schmitt, Johanna; Smith, Laurence C.; Sugihara, George; Thompson, David W. J.; Weaver, Andrew J.; Wofsy, Steven C.

2014-05-01

Levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere are exceeding levels recorded in the past millions of years, and thus climate is being forced beyond the range of the recent geological era. Lacking concerted action by the world's nations, it is clear that the future climate will be warmer, sea levels will rise, global rainfall patterns will change, and ecosystems will be altered. However, there is still uncertainty about how we will arrive at that future climate state. Although many projections of future climatic conditions have predicted steadily changing conditions giving the impression that communities have time to gradually adapt, the scientific community has been paying increasing attention to the possibility that at least some changes will be abrupt, perhaps crossing a threshold or "tipping point" to change so quickly that there will be little time to react. This presentation will synopsize the new US National Research Council Report, Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises, highlighting areas of increased and decreased concern, as well as areas of new concern. Emphasis is placed on not only abrupt change in physical climate, but on abrupt changes in human and natural systems that can occur as a result of a slowly changing climate. The report calls for action now on an abrupt change early warning system (ACEWS) if societies are to be resilient to climate change.

A Well-Known But Still Surprising Generator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haugland, Ole Anton

2014-12-01

The bicycle generator is often mentioned as an example of a method to produce electric energy. It is cheap and easily accessible, so it is a natural example to use in teaching. There are different types, but I prefer the old side-wall dynamo. The most common explanation of its working principle seems to be something like the illustration in Fig. 1. The illustration is taken from a popular textbook in the Norwegian junior high school.1 Typically it is explained as a system of a moving magnet or coils that directly results in a varying magnetic field through the coils. According to Faraday's law a voltage is induced in the coils. Simple and easy! A few times I have had a chance to glimpse into a bicycle generator, and I was somewhat surprised to sense that the magnet rotated parallel to the turns of the coil. How could the flux through the coil change and induce a voltage when the magnet rotated parallel to the turns of the coil? When teaching electromagnetic induction I have showed the students a dismantled generator and asked them how this could work. They naturally found that this was more difficult to understand than the principle illustrated in Fig. 1. Other authors in this journal have discussed even more challenging questions concerning electric generators.2,3

Finding a planet's heartbeat: surprising results from patient Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stamenkovic, Vlada; Ward, Lewis; Fischer, Woodward; Russell, Michael J.

2016-10-01

We explore, from a 3D time-dependent perspective, the evolution of oxidizing and reducing planetary niches and how they form a planetary-scale redox network - from a planet's deep interior to its atmosphere. Such redox networks are similar to the circulatory system of animals, but instead of pressure gradients redox gradients drive the flow of electrons and create hotspots for nutrients and metabolic activity.Using time-dependent geodynamic and atmospheric models, we compute for Mars the time-dependent 3D distribution of 1) hydrogen- and methane-rich reducing subsurface environments, driven by serpentinization and radiolysis of water, and 2) oxygen-rich oases as a product of atmosphere-brine interactions governed by climate and surface chemistry.This is only a first step towards our greater goal to globally model the evolution of local redox environments through time for rocky planets. However, already now our preliminary results show where on Mars oxidizing and reducing oases might have existed and might still exist today. This opens the window to search for extinct and extant life on Mars from a probabilistic global 3D perspective.

Cloud Surprises in Moving NASA EOSDIS Applications into Amazon Web Services

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mclaughlin, Brett

2017-01-01

NASA ESDIS has been moving a variety of data ingest, distribution, and science data processing applications into a cloud environment over the last 2 years. As expected, there have been a number of challenges in migrating primarily on-premises applications into a cloud-based environment, related to architecture and taking advantage of cloud-based services. What was not expected is a number of issues that were beyond purely technical application re-architectures. We ran into surprising network policy limitations, billing challenges in a government-based cost model, and difficulty in obtaining certificates in an NASA security-compliant manner. On the other hand, this approach has allowed us to move a number of applications from local hosting to the cloud in a matter of hours (yes, hours!!), and our CMR application now services 95% of granule searches and an astonishing 99% of all collection searches in under a second. And most surprising of all, well, you'll just have to wait and see the realization that caught our entire team off guard!

Dealing With Unexpected Events on the Flight Deck: A Conceptual Model of Startle and Surprise.

PubMed

Landman, Annemarie; Groen, Eric L; van Paassen, M M René; Bronkhorst, Adelbert W; Mulder, Max

2017-12-01

A conceptual model is proposed in order to explain pilot performance in surprising and startling situations. Today's debate around loss of control following in-flight events and the implementation of upset prevention and recovery training has highlighted the importance of pilots' ability to deal with unexpected events. Unexpected events, such as technical malfunctions or automation surprises, potentially induce a "startle factor" that may significantly impair performance. Literature on surprise, startle, resilience, and decision making is reviewed, and findings are combined into a conceptual model. A number of recent flight incident and accident cases are then used to illustrate elements of the model. Pilot perception and actions are conceptualized as being guided by "frames," or mental knowledge structures that were previously learned. Performance issues in unexpected situations can often be traced back to insufficient adaptation of one's frame to the situation. It is argued that such sensemaking or reframing processes are especially vulnerable to issues caused by startle or acute stress. Interventions should focus on (a) increasing the supply and quality of pilot frames (e.g., though practicing a variety of situations), (b) increasing pilot reframing skills (e.g., through the use of unpredictability in training scenarios), and (c) improving pilot metacognitive skills, so that inappropriate automatic responses to startle and surprise can be avoided. The model can be used to explain pilot behavior in accident cases, to design experiments and training simulations, to teach pilots metacognitive skills, and to identify intervention methods.

Post-heading heat stress and yield impact in winter wheat of China.

PubMed

Liu, Bing; Liu, Leilei; Tian, Liying; Cao, Weixing; Zhu, Yan; Asseng, Senthold

2014-02-01

Wheat is sensitive to high temperatures, but the spatial and temporal variability of high temperature and its impact on yield are often not known. An analysis of historical climate and yield data was undertaken to characterize the spatial and temporal variability of heat stress between heading and maturity and its impact on wheat grain yield in China. Several heat stress indices were developed to quantify heat intensity, frequency, and duration between heading and maturity based on measured maximum temperature records of the last 50 years from 166 stations in the main wheat-growing region of China. Surprisingly, heat stress between heading and maturity was more severe in the generally cooler northern wheat-growing regions than the generally warmer southern regions of China, because of the delayed time of heading with low temperatures during the earlier growing season and the exposure of the post-heading phase into the warmer part of the year. Heat stress between heading and maturity has increased in the last decades in most of the main winter wheat production areas of China, but the rate was higher in the south than in the north. The correlation between measured grain yields and post-heading heat stress and average temperature were statistically significant in the entire wheat-producing region, and explained about 29% of the observed spatial and temporal yield variability. A heat stress index considering the duration and intensity of heat between heading and maturity was required to describe the correlation of heat stress and yield variability. Because heat stress is a major cause of yield loss and the number of heat events is projected to increase in the future, quantifying the future impact of heat stress on wheat production and developing appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies are critical for developing food security policies in China and elsewhere. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Reasoned Decision Making Without Math? Adaptability and Robustness in Response to Surprise.

PubMed

Smithson, Michael; Ben-Haim, Yakov

2015-10-01

Many real-world planning and decision problems are far too uncertain, too variable, and too complicated to support realistic mathematical models. Nonetheless, we explain the usefulness, in these situations, of qualitative insights from mathematical decision theory. We demonstrate the integration of info-gap robustness in decision problems in which surprise and ignorance are predominant and where personal and collective psychological factors are critical. We present practical guidelines for employing adaptable-choice strategies as a proxy for robustness against uncertainty. These guidelines include being prepared for more surprises than we intuitively expect, retaining sufficiently many options to avoid premature closure and conflicts among preferences, and prioritizing outcomes that are steerable, whose consequences are observable, and that do not entail sunk costs, resource depletion, or high transition costs. We illustrate these concepts and guidelines with the example of the medical management of the 2003 SARS outbreak in Vietnam. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Surprising Impact of Remote Groups on the Folding-Unfolding and Dimer-Chain Equilibria of Bifunctionl H-Bonding Unimers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Rui; Cheng, Shuang; Baker, Erin Shammel

2016-01-28

Oligoamide 1, consisting of two H-bonding units linked by a trimethylene linker, was previously found to form a very stable, folded dimer. In this work, replacing the side chains and end groups of 1 led to derivatives that show the surprising impact of end groups on the folding and dimer-chain equilibria of the resultant molecules.

Optimized static and video EEG rapid serial visual presentation (RSVP) paradigm based on motion surprise computation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khosla, Deepak; Huber, David J.; Bhattacharyya, Rajan

2017-05-01

In this paper, we describe an algorithm and system for optimizing search and detection performance for "items of interest" (IOI) in large-sized images and videos that employ the Rapid Serial Visual Presentation (RSVP) based EEG paradigm and surprise algorithms that incorporate motion processing to determine whether static or video RSVP is used. The system works by first computing a motion surprise map on image sub-regions (chips) of incoming sensor video data and then uses those surprise maps to label the chips as either "static" or "moving". This information tells the system whether to use a static or video RSVP presentation and decoding algorithm in order to optimize EEG based detection of IOI in each chip. Using this method, we are able to demonstrate classification of a series of image regions from video with an azimuth value of 1, indicating perfect classification, over a range of display frequencies and video speeds.

Recognition and surprise alter the human visual evoked response.

PubMed Central

Neville, H; Snyder, E; Woods, D; Galambos, R

1982-01-01

Event-related brain potentials (ERPs) to colored slides contained a late positive component that was significantly enhanced when adults recognized the person, place, or painting in the photograph. Additionally, two late components change in amplitude, corresponding to the amount of surprise reported. Because subjects received no instructions to differentiate among the slides, these changes in brain potentials reflect natural classifications made according to their perceptions and evaluations of the pictorial material. This may be a useful paradigm with which to assess perception, memory, and orienting capacities in populations such as infants who cannot follow verbal instructions. Images PMID:6952260

Donor management parameters and organ yield: single center results.

PubMed

Marshall, George Ryne; Mangus, Richard S; Powelson, John A; Fridell, Jonathan A; Kubal, Chandrashekhar A; Tector, A Joseph

2014-09-01

Management of organ donors in the intensive care unit is an emerging subject in critical care and transplantation. This study evaluates organ yield outcomes for a large number of patients managed by the Indiana Organ Procurement Organization. This is a retrospective review of intensive care unit records from 2008-2012. Donor demographic information and seven donor management parameters (DMP) were recorded at admission, consent, 12 h after consent, and before procurement. Three study groups were created: donors meeting 0-3, 4, or 5-7 DMP. Active donor Organ Procurement Organization management began at consent; so, data analysis focuses on the 12-h postconsent time point. Outcomes included organs transplanted per donor (OTPD) and transplantation of individual solid organs. Complete records for 499 patients were reviewed. Organ yield was 1415 organs of 3992 possible (35%). At 12 h, donors meeting more DMP had more OTPD: 2.2 (0-3) versus 3.0 (4) versus 3.5 (5-7) (P < 0.01). Aggregate DMP met was significantly associated with transplantation of every organ except intestine. Oxygen tension, vasopressor use, and central venous pressure were the most frequent independent predictors of organ usage. There were significantly more organs transplanted for donors meeting all three of these parameters (4.5 versus 2.7, P < 0.01). Initial DMP met does not appear to be a significant prognostic factor for OTPD. Aggregate DMP is associated with transplantation rates for most organs, with analysis of individual parameters suggesting that appropriate management of oxygenation, volume status, and vasopressor use could lead to more organs procured per donor. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Logs and Scarp Data from a Paloseismic Investigation of the Surprise Valley Fault Zone, Modoc County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Personius, Stephen F.; Crone, Anthony J.; Machette, Michael N.; Lidke, David J.; Bradley, Lee-Ann; Mahan, Shannon

2007-01-01

This report contains field and laboratory data from a paleoseismic study of the Surprise Valley fault zone near Cedarville, California. The 85-km-long Surprise Valley fault zone forms the western active margin of the Basin and Range province in northeastern California. The down-to-the-east normal fault is marked by Holocene fault scarps along most of its length, from Fort Bidwell on the north to near the southern end of Surprise Valley. We studied the central section of the fault to determine ages of paleoearthquakes and to better constrain late Quaternary slip rates, which we hope to compare to deformation rates derived from a recently established geodetic network in the region (Hammond and Thatcher, 2005; 2007). We excavated a trench in June 2005 across a prominent fault scarp on pluvial Lake Surprise deltaic sediments near the mouth of Cooks Canyon, 4 km north of Cedarville. This site was chosen because of the presence of a well-preserved fault scarp and its development on lacustrine deposits thought to be suitable for luminescence dating. We also logged a natural exposure of the fault in similar deltaic sediments near the mouth of Steamboat Canyon, 11 km south of Cedarville, to better understand the along-strike extent of surface ruptures. The purpose of this report is to present photomosaics, trench, drill hole, and stream exposure logs; scarp profiles; and fault slip, tephrochronologic, radiocarbon, luminescence, and unit description data obtained during this investigation. We do not attempt to use the data presented herein to construct a paleoseismic history of this part of the Surprise Valley fault zone; that history will be the subject of a future report.

Direct anterior versus miniposterior THA with the same advanced perioperative protocols: surprising early clinical results.

PubMed

Poehling-Monaghan, Kirsten L; Kamath, Atul F; Taunton, Michael J; Pagnano, Mark W

2015-02-01

Although some surgeons strongly advocate for one approach over the other, there are few data directly comparing the direct anterior approach with a miniposterior approach for total hip arthroplasty (THA). Using the same advanced pain and rapid rehabilitation protocols for both groups, we compared the direct anterior and miniposterior approaches with respect to (1) return to activities of daily living at 2 days, 2 weeks, or 2 months; (2) risk of intraoperative or early postoperative complications; and (3) component position. Over a 1-year period we identified all consecutive, primary direct anterior and miniposterior THAs performed by two surgeons at our institution, totaling 242 patients. Of those, 20 did not meet inclusion criteria as a result of prior trauma or surgery about the hip. A total of 222 patients, 126 direct anterior and 96 miniposterior, were retrospectively evaluated. All cases were done by one of two surgeons, one of whom performs THA exclusively through the direct anterior approach and the other who only uses the miniposterior approach. Groups did not differ demographically with mean±SD age 64±12 years, mean body mass index 30±5.7 kg/m2, and 50% female. The same rapid rehabilitation protocols were used with no postoperative hip positioning precautions. No differences were seen between the two groups in mean length of stay (2.2 days; range, 1-9 days), operative or in-hospital complications, intravenous breakthrough analgesia, stairs, maximum feet walked in-hospital, or percent discharged to home (80% [177 of 222]; all p>0.2). The direct anterior patients had longer mean operative times (114 minutes; range, 60-251 minutes) than the miniposterior patients (mean, 60 minutes; range, 41-113 minutes; p<0.001). The direct anterior group had a higher maximum visual analog scale pain score (5.3 direct anterior; ±2, versus 3.8 MP; ±2; p<0.0001). At 2 weeks, more direct anterior patients required gait aids (92% [116 of 126]) than miniposterior (68% [62 of

Slope Controls Grain Yield and Climatic Yield in Mountainous Yunnan province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, X.; Rong, L.; Gu, Z.; Feng, D.

2017-12-01

Mountainous regions are increasingly vulnerable to food insecurity because of limited arable land, growing population pressure, and climate change. Development of sustainable mountain agriculture will require an increased understanding of the effects of environmental factors on grain and climatic yields. The objective of this study was to explore the relationships between actual grain yield, climatic yield, and environmental factors in a mountainous region in China. We collected data on the average grain yield per unit area in 119 counties in Yunnan province from 1985 to 2012, and chose 17 environmental factors for the same period. Our results showed that actual grain yield ranged from 1.43 to 6.92 t·ha-1, and the climatic yield ranged from -0.15 to -0.01 t·ha-1. Lower climatic yield but higher grain yield was generally found in central areas and at lower slopes and elevations in the western and southwestern counties of Yunnan province. Higher climatic yield but lower grain yield were found in northwestern parts of Yunnan province on steep slopes. Annual precipation and temperature had a weak influence on the climatic yield. Slope explained 44.62 and 26.29% of the variation in grain yield and climatic yield. The effects of topography on grain and climatic yields were greater than climatic factors. Slope was the most important environmental variable for the variability in climatic and grain yields in the mountainous Yunnan province due to the highly heterogeneous topographic conditions. Conversion of slopes to terraces in areas with higher climatic yields is an effective way to maintain grain production in response to climate variability. Additionally, soil amendments and soil and water conservation measures should be considered to maintain soil fertility and aid in sustainable development in central areas, and in counties at lower slopes and elevations in western and southwestern Yunnan province.

Surprising characteristics of visual systems of invertebrates.

PubMed

González-Martín-Moro, J; Hernández-Verdejo, J L; Jiménez-Gahete, A E

2017-01-01

To communicate relevant and striking aspects about the visual system of some close invertebrates. Review of the related literature. The capacity of snails to regenerate a complete eye, the benefit of the oval shape of the compound eye of many flying insects as a way of stabilising the image during flight, the potential advantages related to the extreme refractive error that characterises the ocelli of many insects, as well as the ability to detect polarised light as a navigation system, are some of the surprising capabilities present in the small invertebrate eyes that are described in this work. The invertebrate eyes have capabilities and sensorial modalities that are not present in the human eye. The study of the eyes of these animals can help us to improve our understanding of our visual system, and inspire the development of optical devices. Copyright © 2016 Sociedad Española de Oftalmología. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

A Surprising Alliance: Two Giants of the 20th Century

PubMed Central

Sade, Robert M.

2017-01-01

Alexis Carrel and Charles Lindbergh were among the most famous international figures in the 20th century, Carrel, the surgeon-scientist who won a Nobel prize as a young surgeon, and Lindbergh, the aviator-engineer who pioneered aviation and promoted commercial flight throughout his life. Surprisingly, these two amazing individuals came together to collaborate on the early development of extracorporeal circulation. Their work was interrupted by the onset of World War II, which destroyed one of them and nearly destroyed the other. PMID:28528032

The influence of psychological resilience on the relation between automatic stimulus evaluation and attentional breadth for surprised faces.

PubMed

Grol, Maud; De Raedt, Rudi

2015-01-01

The broaden-and-build theory relates positive emotions to resilience and cognitive broadening. The theory proposes that the broadening effects underly the relation between positive emotions and resilience, suggesting that resilient people can benefit more from positive emotions at the level of cognitive functioning. Research has investigated the influence of positive emotions on attentional broadening, but the stimulus in the target of attention may also influence attentional breadth, depending on affective stimulus evaluation. Surprised faces are particularly interesting as they are valence ambiguous, therefore, we investigated the relation between affective evaluation--using an affective priming task--and attentional breadth for surprised faces, and how this relation is influenced by resilience. Results show that more positive evaluations are related to more attentional broadening at high levels of resilience, while this relation is reversed at low levels. This indicates that resilient individuals can benefit more from attending to positively evaluated stimuli at the level of attentional broadening.

Predicting paddlefish roe yields using an extension of the Beverton–Holt equilibrium yield-per-recruit model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Colvin, M.E.; Bettoli, Phillip William; Scholten, G.D.

2013-01-01

Equilibrium yield models predict the total biomass removed from an exploited stock; however, traditional yield models must be modified to simulate roe yields because a linear relationship between age (or length) and mature ovary weight does not typically exist. We extended the traditional Beverton-Holt equilibrium yield model to predict roe yields of Paddlefish Polyodon spathula in Kentucky Lake, Tennessee-Kentucky, as a function of varying conditional fishing mortality rates (10-70%), conditional natural mortality rates (cm; 9% and 18%), and four minimum size limits ranging from 864 to 1,016mm eye-to-fork length. These results were then compared to a biomass-based yield assessment. Analysis of roe yields indicated the potential for growth overfishing at lower exploitation rates and smaller minimum length limits than were suggested by the biomass-based assessment. Patterns of biomass and roe yields in relation to exploitation rates were similar regardless of the simulated value of cm, thus indicating that the results were insensitive to changes in cm. Our results also suggested that higher minimum length limits would increase roe yield and reduce the potential for growth overfishing and recruitment overfishing at the simulated cm values. Biomass-based equilibrium yield assessments are commonly used to assess the effects of harvest on other caviar-based fisheries; however, our analysis demonstrates that such assessments likely underestimate the probability and severity of growth overfishing when roe is targeted. Therefore, equilibrium roe yield-per-recruit models should also be considered to guide the management process for caviar-producing fish species.

ISS GN and C - First Year Surprises

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Begley, Michael

2002-01-01

Assembly of the International Space Station (ISS) began in late 1998 with the joining of the first two US and Russ ian elements. For more than two years, the outpost was served by two Russian Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GN&C) systems. The station requires orbital translation and attitude control functions for its 100+ configurations, from the nascent two-module station to the half million kilogram completed station owned and operated by seventeen nations. With the launch of the US Laboratory module in February 2001, the integration of the US GN&C system with its Russian counterpart laid the foundation for such a robust system. In its first year of combined operation, the ISS GN&C system has performed admirably, even better than many expected, but there have been surprises. Loss of command capability, loss of communication between segments, a control system force-fight, and "non-propulsive vents" that weren't - such events have repeatedly underscored the importance of thorough program integration, testing, and operation, both across subsystem boundaries and across international borders.

Charon Surprising Youthful and Varied Terrain

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-07-15

Remarkable new details of Pluto's largest moon Charon are revealed in this image from New Horizons' Long Range Reconnaissance Imager (LORRI), taken late on July 13, 2015 from a distance of 289,000 miles (466,000 kilometers). A swath of cliffs and troughs stretches about 600 miles (1,000 kilometers) from left to right, suggesting widespread fracturing of Charon's crust, likely a result of internal processes. At upper right, along the moon's curving edge, is a canyon estimated to be 4 to 6 miles (7 to 9 kilometers) deep. Mission scientists are surprised by the apparent lack of craters on Charon. South of the moon's equator, at the bottom of this image, terrain is lit by the slanting rays of the sun, creating shadows that make it easier to distinguish topography. Even here, however, relatively few craters are visible, indicating a relatively young surface that has been reshaped by geologic activity. In Charon's north polar region, a dark marking prominent in New Horizons' approach images is now seen to have a diffuse boundary, suggesting it is a thin deposit of dark material. Underlying it is a distinct, sharply bounded, angular feature; higher resolution images still to come are expected to shed more light on this enigmatic region. The image has been compressed to reduce its file size for transmission to Earth. In high-contrast areas of the image, features as small as 3 miles (5 kilometers) across can be seen. Some lower-contrast detail is obscured by the compression of the image, which may make some areas appear smoother than they really are. The uncompressed version still resides in New Horizons' computer memory and is scheduled to be transmitted at a later date. The image has been combined with color information obtained by New Horizons' Ralph instrument on July 13. New Horizons traveled more than three billion miles over nine-and-a-half years to reach the Pluto system. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA19709

A Surprising Alliance: Two Giants of the 20th Century.

PubMed

Sade, Robert M

2017-06-01

Alexis Carrel and Charles Lindbergh were among the most famous international figures in the 20th century: Carrel, the surgeon-scientist who won a Nobel prize as a young surgeon, and Lindbergh, the aviator-engineer who pioneered aviation and promoted commercial flight throughout his life. Surprisingly, these two amazing individuals came together to collaborate on the early development of extracorporeal circulation. Their work was interrupted by the onset of World War II, which destroyed one of them and nearly destroyed the other. Copyright © 2017 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Methane hydrate synthesis from ice: Influence of pressurization and ethanol on optimizing formation rates and hydrate yield

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chen, Po-Chun.; Huang, Wuu-Liang; Stern, Laura A.

2010-01-01

Polycrystalline methane gas hydrate (MGH) was synthesized using an ice-seeding method to investigate the influence of pressurization and ethanol on the hydrate formation rate and gas yield of the resulting samples. When the reactor is pressurized with CH4 gas without external heating, methane hydrate can be formed from ice grains with yields up to 25% under otherwise static conditions. The rapid temperature rise caused by pressurization partially melts the granular ice, which reacts with methane to form hydrate rinds around the ice grains. The heat generated by the exothermic reaction of methane hydrate formation buffers the sample temperature near the melting point of ice for enough time to allow for continuous hydrate growth at high rates. Surprisingly, faster rates and higher yields of methane hydrate were found in runs with lower initial temperatures, slower rates of pressurization, higher porosity of the granular ice samples, or mixtures with sediments. The addition of ethanol also dramatically enhanced the formation of polycrystalline MGH. This study demonstrates that polycrystalline MGH with varied physical properties suitable for different laboratory tests can be manufactured by controlling synthesis procedures or parameters. Subsequent dissociation experiments using a gas collection apparatus and flowmeter confirmed high methane saturation (CH 4·2O, with n = 5.82 ± 0.03) in the MGH. Dissociation rates of the various samples synthesized at diverse conditions may be fitted to different rate laws, including zero and first order.

Human Amygdala Tracks a Feature-Based Valence Signal Embedded within the Facial Expression of Surprise.

PubMed

Kim, M Justin; Mattek, Alison M; Bennett, Randi H; Solomon, Kimberly M; Shin, Jin; Whalen, Paul J

2017-09-27

Human amygdala function has been traditionally associated with processing the affective valence (negative vs positive) of an emotionally charged event, especially those that signal fear or threat. However, this account of human amygdala function can be explained by alternative views, which posit that the amygdala might be tuned to either (1) general emotional arousal (activation vs deactivation) or (2) specific emotion categories (fear vs happy). Delineating the pure effects of valence independent of arousal or emotion category is a challenging task, given that these variables naturally covary under many circumstances. To circumvent this issue and test the sensitivity of the human amygdala to valence values specifically, we measured the dimension of valence within the single facial expression category of surprise. Given the inherent valence ambiguity of this category, we show that surprised expression exemplars are attributed valence and arousal values that are uniquely and naturally uncorrelated. We then present fMRI data from both sexes, showing that the amygdala tracks these consensus valence values. Finally, we provide evidence that these valence values are linked to specific visual features of the mouth region, isolating the signal by which the amygdala detects this valence information. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT There is an open question as to whether human amygdala function tracks the valence value of cues in the environment, as opposed to either a more general emotional arousal value or a more specific emotion category distinction. Here, we demonstrate the utility of surprised facial expressions because exemplars within this emotion category take on valence values spanning the dimension of bipolar valence (positive to negative) at a consistent level of emotional arousal. Functional neuroimaging data showed that amygdala responses tracked the valence of surprised facial expressions, unconfounded by arousal. Furthermore, a machine learning classifier identified

Surprisingly Low Limits of Selection in Plant Domestication

PubMed Central

Allaby, Robin G.; Kitchen, James L.; Fuller, Dorian Q.

2015-01-01

Current debate concerns the pace at which domesticated plants emerged from cultivated wild populations and how many genes were involved. Using an individual-based model, based on the assumptions of Haldane and Maynard Smith, respectively, we estimate that a surprisingly low number of 50–100 loci are the most that could be under selection in a cultivation regime at the selection strengths observed in the archaeological record. This finding is robust to attempts to rescue populations from extinction through selection from high standing genetic variation, gene flow, and the Maynard Smith-based model of threshold selection. Selective sweeps come at a cost, reducing the capacity of plants to adapt to new environments, which may contribute to the explanation of why selective sweeps have not been detected more frequently and why expansion of the agrarian package during the Neolithic was so frequently associated with collapse. PMID:27081302

Bagpipes and Artichokes: Surprise as a Stimulus to Learning in the Elementary Music Classroom

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jacobi, Bonnie Schaffhauser

2016-01-01

Incorporating surprise into music instruction can stimulate student attention, curiosity, and interest. Novelty focuses attention in the reticular activating system, increasing the potential for brain memory storage. Elementary ages are ideal for introducing novel instruments, pieces, composers, or styles of music. Young children have fewer…

Yield: it's now an entitlement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

George, Bill

1994-09-01

Only a few years ago, the primary method of cost reduction and productivity improvement in the semiconductor industry was increasing manufacturing yields throughout the process. Many of the remarkable reliability improvements realized over the past decade have come about as a result of actions that were originally taken primarily to improve device yields. Obviously, the practice of productivity improvement through yield enhancement is limited to the attainment of 100% yield, at which point some other mechanism must be employed. Traditionally, new products have been introduced to manufacturing at a point of relative immaturity, and semiconductor producers have relied on the traditional `learning curve' method of yield improvement to attain profitable levels of manufacturing yield. Recently, results of a survey of several fabs by a group of University of California at Berkeley researchers in the Competitive Semiconductor Manufacturing Program indicate that most factories learn at about the same rate after startup, in terms of both line yield and defectivity. If this is indeed generally true, then the most competitive factor is the one that starts with the highest yield, and it is difficult to displace a leader once his lead has been established. The two observations made above carry enormous implications for the semiconductor development or manufacturing professional. First, one must achieve very high yields in order to even play the game. Second, the achievement of competitive yields over time in the life of a factory is determined even before the factory is opened, in the planning and development phase. Third, and perhaps most uncomfortable for those of us who have relied on yield improvement as a cost driver, the winners of the nineties will find new levers to drive costs down, having already gotten the benefit of very high yield. This paper looks at the question of how the winners will achieve the critical measures of success, high initial yield and utilization

Brazilian Soybean Yields and Yield Gaps Vary with Farm Size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeffries, G. R.; Cohn, A.; Griffin, T. S.; Bragança, A.

2017-12-01

Understanding the farm size-specific characteristics of crop yields and yield gaps may help to improve yields by enabling better targeting of technical assistance and agricultural development programs. Linking remote sensing-based yield estimates with property boundaries provides a novel view of the relationship between farm size and yield structure (yield magnitude, gaps, and stability over time). A growing literature documents variations in yield gaps, but largely ignores the role of farm size as a factor shaping yield structure. Research on the inverse farm size-productivity relationship (IR) theory - that small farms are more productive than large ones all else equal - has documented that yield magnitude may vary by farm size, but has not considered other yield structure characteristics. We examined farm size - yield structure relationships for soybeans in Brazil for years 2001-2015. Using out-of-sample soybean yield predictions from a statistical model, we documented 1) gaps between the 95th percentile of attained yields and mean yields within counties and individual fields, and 2) yield stability defined as the standard deviation of time-detrended yields at given locations. We found a direct relationship between soy yields and farm size at the national level, while the strength and the sign of the relationship varied by region. Soybean yield gaps were found to be inversely related to farm size metrics, even when yields were only compared to farms of similar size. The relationship between farm size and yield stability was nonlinear, with mid-sized farms having the most stable yields. The work suggests that farm size is an important factor in understanding yield structure and that opportunities for improving soy yields in Brazil are greatest among smaller farms.

Results of the Abbott RealTime HIV-1 assay for specimens yielding "target not detected" results by the Cobas AmpliPrep/Cobas TaqMan HIV-1 Test.

PubMed

Babady, N Esther; Germer, Jeffrey J; Yao, Joseph D C

2010-03-01

No significantly discordant results were observed between the Abbott RealTime HIV-1 assay and the COBAS AmpliPrep/COBAS TaqMan HIV-1 Test (CTM) among 1,190 unique clinical plasma specimens obtained from laboratories located in 40 states representing all nine U.S. geographic regions and previously yielding "target not detected" results by CTM.

Identifying seedling root architectural traits associated with yield and yield components in wheat.

PubMed

Xie, Quan; Fernando, Kurukulasuriya M C; Mayes, Sean; Sparkes, Debbie L

2017-05-01

Plant roots growing underground are critical for soil resource acquisition, anchorage and plant-environment interactions. In wheat ( Triticum aestivum ), however, the target root traits to improve yield potential still remain largely unknown. This study aimed to identify traits of seedling root system architecture (RSA) associated with yield and yield components in 226 recombinant inbred lines (RILs) derived from a cross between the bread wheat Triticum aestivum 'Forno' (small, wide root system) and spelt Triticum spelta 'Oberkulmer' (large, narrow root system). A 'pouch and wick' high-throughput phenotyping pipeline was used to determine the RSA traits of 13-day-old RIL seedlings. Two field experiments and one glasshouse experiment were carried out to investigate the yield, yield components and phenology, followed by identification of quantitative trait loci (QTLs). There was substantial variation in RSA traits between genotypes. Seminal root number and total root length were both positively associated with grains m -2 , grains per spike, above-ground biomass m -2 and grain yield. More seminal roots and longer total root length were also associated with delayed maturity and extended grain filling, likely to be a consequence of more grains being defined before anthesis. Additionally, the maximum width of the root system displayed positive relationships with spikes m -2 , grains m -2 and grain yield. Ten RILs selected for the longest total roots exhibited the same effects on yield and phenology as described above, compared with the ten lines with the shortest total roots. Genetic analysis revealed 38 QTLs for the RSA, and QTL coincidence between the root and yield traits was frequently observed, indicating tightly linked genes or pleiotropy, which concurs with the results of phenotypic correlation analysis. Based on the results from the Forno × Oberkulmer population, it is proposed that vigorous early root growth, particularly more seminal roots and longer total

Yield and economic performance of organic and conventional cotton-based farming systems--results from a field trial in India.

PubMed

Forster, Dionys; Andres, Christian; Verma, Rajeev; Zundel, Christine; Messmer, Monika M; Mäder, Paul

2013-01-01

The debate on the relative benefits of conventional and organic farming systems has in recent time gained significant interest. So far, global agricultural development has focused on increased productivity rather than on a holistic natural resource management for food security. Thus, developing more sustainable farming practices on a large scale is of utmost importance. However, information concerning the performance of farming systems under organic and conventional management in tropical and subtropical regions is scarce. This study presents agronomic and economic data from the conversion phase (2007-2010) of a farming systems comparison trial on a Vertisol soil in Madhya Pradesh, central India. A cotton-soybean-wheat crop rotation under biodynamic, organic and conventional (with and without Bt cotton) management was investigated. We observed a significant yield gap between organic and conventional farming systems in the 1(st) crop cycle (cycle 1: 2007-2008) for cotton (-29%) and wheat (-27%), whereas in the 2(nd) crop cycle (cycle 2: 2009-2010) cotton and wheat yields were similar in all farming systems due to lower yields in the conventional systems. In contrast, organic soybean (a nitrogen fixing leguminous plant) yields were marginally lower than conventional yields (-1% in cycle 1, -11% in cycle 2). Averaged across all crops, conventional farming systems achieved significantly higher gross margins in cycle 1 (+29%), whereas in cycle 2 gross margins in organic farming systems were significantly higher (+25%) due to lower variable production costs but similar yields. Soybean gross margin was significantly higher in the organic system (+11%) across the four harvest years compared to the conventional systems. Our results suggest that organic soybean production is a viable option for smallholder farmers under the prevailing semi-arid conditions in India. Future research needs to elucidate the long-term productivity and profitability, particularly of cotton and

The Educational Philosophies of Mordecai Kaplan and Michael Rosenak: Surprising Similarities and Illuminating Differences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schein, Jeffrey; Caplan, Eric

2014-01-01

The thoughts of Mordecai Kaplan and Michael Rosenak present surprising commonalities as well as illuminating differences. Similarities include the perception that Judaism and Jewish education are in crisis, the belief that Jewish peoplehood must include commitment to meaningful content, the need for teachers to teach from a position of…

Surprising evidence of pelvic growth (widening) after skeletal maturity.

PubMed

Berger, Alexander A; May, Ryan; Renner, Jordan B; Viradia, Neal; Dahners, Laurence E

2011-11-01

Following an increase in length and width during childhood and adolescence, skeletal growth is generally assumed to stop. This study investigates the influence of aging on the dimensions of the pelvis and the L4 lumbar vertebra during adulthood. The dimensions of the pelvis, L4 vertebra, and femoral heads were calculated for 246 patients who had received pelvic and abdominal Computed Tomography scans from the UNC Health Care System. Linear regression analysis determined the significance of relationships between age and width of the pelvis. There was a strong correlation between increasing patient age and increasing width of the pelvis at the trochanters, (0.333 mm/year of age p<0.0001), at the iliac wings, (0.371 mm/year of age p < 0.0002), and between the femoral heads, indicating that the bony pelvis widens over 20 mm between the ages of 20 and 80. The pelvic inlet did not enlarge over time while the distance between the hips and the femoral head diameter did significantly increase. The height of L4 did not increase over time, but the L4 width did increase. These correlations were seen in both genders. Surprisingly, our results suggest that the pelvis and L4 vertebra increase in width after skeletal maturity and cessation of longitudinal growth. Copyright © 2011 Orthopaedic Research Society.

High-Yield Synthesis and Applications of Anisotropic Gold Nanoparticles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vigderman, Leonid

This work will describe research directed towards the synthesis of anisotropic gold nanoparticles as well as their functionalization and biological applications. The thesis will begin by describing a new technique for the high-yield synthesis of gold nanorods using hydroquinone as a reducing agent. This addresses important limitations of the traditional nanorod synthesis including low yield of gold ions conversion to metallic form and inability to produce rods with longitudinal surface plasmon peak above 850 nm. The use of hydroquinone was also found to improve the synthesis of gold nanowires via the nanorod-seed mediated procedure developed in our lab. The thesis will next present the synthesis of novel starfruitshaped nanorods, mesorods, and nanowires using a modified nanorod-seed mediated procedure. The starfruit particles displayed increased activity as surfaceenhanced Raman spectroscopy (SERS) substrates as compared to smooth structures. Next, a method for the functionalization of gold nanorods using a cationic thiol, 16-mercaptohexadecyltrimethylammonium bromide (MTAB), will be described. By using this thiol, we were able to demonstrate the complete removal of toxic surfactant from the nanorods and were also able to precisely quantify the grafting density of thiol molecules on the nanorod surface through a combination of several analytical techniques. Finally, this thesis will show that MTABfunctionalized nanorods are nontoxic and can be taken up in extremely high numbers into cancer cells. The thesis will conclude by describing the surprising uptake of larger mesorods and nanowires functionalized with MTAB into cells in high quantities.

Estimation of rice yield affected by drought and relation between rice yield and TVDI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hongo, C.; Tamura, E.; Sigit, G.

2016-12-01

Impact of climate change is not only seen on food production but also on food security and sustainable development of society. Adaptation to climate change is a pressing issue throughout the world to reduce the risks along with the plans and strategies for food security and sustainable development. As a key adaptation to the climate change, agricultural insurance is expected to play an important role in stabilizing agricultural production through compensating the losses caused by the climate change. As the adaptation, the Government of Indonesia has launched agricultural insurance program for damage of rice by drought, flood and pest and disease. The Government started a pilot project in 2013 and this year the pilot project has been extended to 22 provinces. Having the above as background, we conducted research on development of new damage assessment method for rice using remote sensing data which could be used for evaluation of damage ratio caused by drought in West Java, Indonesia. For assessment of the damage ratio, estimation of rice yield is a key. As the result of our study, rice yield affected by drought in dry season could be estimated at level of 1 % significance using SPOT 7 data taken in 2015, and the validation result was 0.8t/ha. Then, the decrease ratio in rice yield about each individual paddy field was calculated using data of the estimated result and the average yield of the past 10 years. In addition, TVDI (Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index) which was calculated from Landsat8 data in heading season indicated the dryness in low yield area. The result suggests that rice yield was affected by irrigation water shortage around heading season as a result of the decreased precipitation by El Nino. Through our study, it becomes clear that the utilization of remote sensing data can be promising for assessment of the damage ratio of rice production precisely, quickly and quantitatively, and also it can be incorporated into the insurance procedures.

Agent Based Study of Surprise Attacks:. Roles of Surveillance, Prompt Reaction and Intelligence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shanahan, Linda; Sen, Surajit

Defending a confined territory from a surprise attack is seldom possible. We use molecular dynamics and statistical physics inspired agent-based simulations to explore the evolution and outcome of such attacks. The study suggests robust emergent behavior, which emphasizes the importance of accurate surveillance, automated and powerful attack response, building layout, and sheds light on the role of communication restrictions in defending such territories.

Climate Effects on Corn Yield in Missouri(.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Qi; Buyanovsky, Gregory

2003-11-01

Understanding climate effects on crop yield has been a continuous endeavor aiming at improving farming technology and management strategy, minimizing negative climate effects, and maximizing positive climate effects on yield. Many studies have examined climate effects on corn yield in different regions of the United States. However, most of those studies used yield and climate records that were shorter than 10 years and were for different years and localities. Although results of those studies showed various influences of climate on corn yield, they could be time specific and have been difficult to use for deriving a comprehensive understanding of climate effects on corn yield. In this study, climate effects on corn yield in central Missouri are examined using unique long-term (1895 1998) datasets of both corn yield and climate. Major results show that the climate effects on corn yield can only be explained by within-season variations in rainfall and temperature and cannot be distinguished by average growing-season conditions. Moreover, the growing-season distributions of rainfall and temperature for high-yield years are characterized by less rainfall and warmer temperature in the planting period, a rapid increase in rainfall, and more rainfall and warmer temperatures during germination and emergence. More rainfall and cooler-than-average temperatures are key features in the anthesis and kernel-filling periods from June through August, followed by less rainfall and warmer temperatures during the September and early October ripening time. Opposite variations in rainfall and temperature in the growing season correspond to low yield. Potential applications of these results in understanding how climate change may affect corn yield in the region also are discussed.

Semantic relation vs. surprise: the differential effects of related and unrelated co-verbal gestures on neural encoding and subsequent recognition.

PubMed

Straube, Benjamin; Meyer, Lea; Green, Antonia; Kircher, Tilo

2014-06-03

Speech-associated gesturing leads to memory advantages for spoken sentences. However, unexpected or surprising events are also likely to be remembered. With this study we test the hypothesis that different neural mechanisms (semantic elaboration and surprise) lead to memory advantages for iconic and unrelated gestures. During fMRI-data acquisition participants were presented with video clips of an actor verbalising concrete sentences accompanied by iconic gestures (IG; e.g., circular gesture; sentence: "The man is sitting at the round table"), unrelated free gestures (FG; e.g., unrelated up down movements; same sentence) and no gestures (NG; same sentence). After scanning, recognition performance for the three conditions was tested. Videos were evaluated regarding semantic relation and surprise by a different group of participants. The semantic relationship between speech and gesture was rated higher for IG (IG>FG), whereas surprise was rated higher for FG (FG>IG). Activation of the hippocampus correlated with subsequent memory performance of both gesture conditions (IG+FG>NG). For the IG condition we found activation in the left temporal pole and middle cingulate cortex (MCC; IG>FG). In contrast, for the FG condition posterior thalamic structures (FG>IG) as well as anterior and posterior cingulate cortices were activated (FG>NG). Our behavioral and fMRI-data suggest different mechanisms for processing related and unrelated co-verbal gestures, both of them leading to enhanced memory performance. Whereas activation in MCC and left temporal pole for iconic co-verbal gestures may reflect semantic memory processes, memory enhancement for unrelated gestures relies on the surprise response, mediated by anterior/posterior cingulate cortex and thalamico-hippocampal structures. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hepatobiliary fascioliasis in non-endemic zones: a surprise diagnosis.

PubMed

Jha, Ashish Kumar; Goenka, Mahesh Kumar; Goenka, Usha; Chakrabarti, Amrita

2013-03-01

Fascioliasis is a zoonotic infection caused by Fasciola hepatica. Because of population migration and international food trade, human fascioliasis is being an increasingly recognised entity in nonendemic zones. In most parts of Asia, hepatobiliary fascioliasis is sporadic. Human hepatobiliary infection by this trematode has two distinct phases: an acute hepatic phase and a chronic biliary phase. Hepatobiliary infection is mostly associated with intense peripheral eosinophilia. In addition to classically defined hepatic phase and biliary phase fascioliasis, some cases may have an overlap of these two phases. Chronic liver abscess formation is a rare presentation. We describe a surprise case of hepatobiliary fascioliasis who presented to us with liver abscess without intense peripheral eosinophilia, a rare presentation of human fascioliasis especially in non-endemic zones. Copyright © 2013 Arab Journal of Gastroenterology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Yield gaps and yield relationships in US soybean production systems

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The magnitude of yield gaps (YG) (potential yield – farmer yield) provides some indication of the prospects for increasing crop yield to meet the food demands of future populations. Quantile regression analysis was applied to county soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merrill] yields (1971 – 2011) from Kentuc...

Risk dishabituation: in repeated gambling, risk is reduced following low-probability "surprising" events (wins or losses).

PubMed

Demaree, Heath A; Burns, Kevin J; Dedonno, Michael A; Agarwala, Edward K; Everhart, D Erik

2012-06-01

In path-dependent risk taking, like playing a slot machine, the wager on one trial may be affected by the outcome of the preceding trial. Previous studies have shown that a person's risk-taking preferences may change as a result of the preceding trial (win or loss). For example, the "house money effect" suggests that risk taking may increase after a win, whereas the "break even effect" posits that risk taking increases after a loss. Independent of those findings, a person's emotional state has been found to influence risk taking. For example, the "mood maintenance hypothesis" supports the notion that positive affect decreases risk taking, and related research finds that increased negative affect increases risk taking. Because winning and losing may influence one's emotional state, we sought to investigate how both previous outcomes, as well as a person's emotional responses to those outcomes, independently influence subsequent risk taking. To do this, data were collected using three simplified slot machines where the chance of winning each trial was set to 13%, 50%, and 87%, respectively. Evidence for the break even and house money effects were found on the 13% and 87% games, respectively. Likewise, emotional valence was found to predict risk taking on these two tasks, with emotional valence fully explaining the break even effect observed on the 13% game. In addition to these results, the present research revealed that risk taking is reduced following low-probability ("surprising") events (i.e., a win in the 13% condition or loss in the 87% condition). Dubbed "risk dishabituation," this phenomenon is discussed, along with its likely corresponding emotional experience--surprise.

Interaction Between Phosphorus and Zinc on the Biomass Yield and Yield Attributes of the Medicinal Plant Stevia (Stevia rebaudiana)

PubMed Central

Das, Kuntal; Dang, Raman; Shivananda, T. N.; Sur, Pintu

2005-01-01

A greenhouse experiment was conducted at the Indian Institute of Horticultural Research (IIHR), Bangalore to study the interaction effect between phosphorus (P) and zinc (Zn) on the yield and yield attributes of the medicinal plant stevia. The results show that the yield and yield attributes have been found to be significantly affected by different treatments. The total yield in terms of biomass production has been increased significantly with the application of Zn and P in different combinations and methods, being highest (23.34 g fresh biomass) in the treatment where Zn was applied as both soil (10 kg ZnSO4/ha) and foliar spray (0.2% ZnSO4). The results also envisaged that the different yield attributes viz. height, total number of branches, and number of leaves per plant have been found to be varied with treatments, being highest in the treatment where Zn was applied as both soil and foliar spray without the application of P. The results further indicated that the yield and yield attributes of stevia have been found to be decreased in the treatment where Zn was applied as both soil and foliar spray along with P suggesting an antagonistic effect between Zn and P. PMID:15915292

Nut crop yield records show that budbreak-based chilling requirements may not reflect yield decline chill thresholds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pope, Katherine S.; Dose, Volker; Da Silva, David; Brown, Patrick H.; DeJong, Theodore M.

2015-06-01

Warming winters due to climate change may critically affect temperate tree species. Insufficiently cold winters are thought to result in fewer viable flower buds and the subsequent development of fewer fruits or nuts, decreasing the yield of an orchard or fecundity of a species. The best existing approximation for a threshold of sufficient cold accumulation, the "chilling requirement" of a species or variety, has been quantified by manipulating or modeling the conditions that result in dormant bud breaking. However, the physiological processes that affect budbreak are not the same as those that determine yield. This study sought to test whether budbreak-based chilling thresholds can reasonably approximate the thresholds that affect yield, particularly regarding the potential impacts of climate change on temperate tree crop yields. County-wide yield records for almond ( Prunus dulcis), pistachio ( Pistacia vera), and walnut ( Juglans regia) in the Central Valley of California were compared with 50 years of weather records. Bayesian nonparametric function estimation was used to model yield potentials at varying amounts of chill accumulation. In almonds, average yields occurred when chill accumulation was close to the budbreak-based chilling requirement. However, in the other two crops, pistachios and walnuts, the best previous estimate of the budbreak-based chilling requirements was 19-32 % higher than the chilling accumulations associated with average or above average yields. This research indicates that physiological processes beyond requirements for budbreak should be considered when estimating chill accumulation thresholds of yield decline and potential impacts of climate change.

Surprising Alteration of Antibacterial Activity of 5″-Modified Neomycin against Resistant Bacteria

PubMed Central

Zhang, Jianjun; Chiang, Fang-I; Wu, Long; Czyryca, Przemyslaw Greg; Li, Ding; Chang, Cheng-Wei Tom

2009-01-01

A facile synthetic protocol for the production of neomycin B derivatives with various modifications at the 5″ position has been developed. Structural activity relationship (SAR) against aminoglycoside resistant bacteria equipped with various aminoglycoside-modifying enzymes (AME's) was investigated. Enzymatic and molecular modeling studies reveal that the superb substrate promiscuity of AME's allows the resistant bacteria to cope with diverse structural modifications despite the observation that several derivatives show enhanced antibacterial activity than the parent neomycin. Surprisingly, when testing synthetic neomycin derivatives against other human pathogens, two leads exhibit prominent activity against both Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE) that are known to exert high level of resistance against clinically used aminoglycosides. These findings can be extremely useful in developing new aminoglycoside antibiotics against resistant bacteria. Our result also suggests that new biological and antimicrobial activities can be obtained by chemical modifications of old drugs. PMID:19012394

Changing forest water yields in response to climate warming: results from long-term experimental watershed sites across North America.

PubMed

Creed, Irena F; Spargo, Adam T; Jones, Julia A; Buttle, Jim M; Adams, Mary B; Beall, Fred D; Booth, Eric G; Campbell, John L; Clow, Dave; Elder, Kelly; Green, Mark B; Grimm, Nancy B; Miniat, Chelcy; Ramlal, Patricia; Saha, Amartya; Sebestyen, Stephen; Spittlehouse, Dave; Sterling, Shannon; Williams, Mark W; Winkler, Rita; Yao, Huaxia

2014-10-01

Climate warming is projected to affect forest water yields but the effects are expected to vary. We investigated how forest type and age affect water yield resilience to climate warming. To answer this question, we examined the variability in historical water yields at long-term experimental catchments across Canada and the United States over 5-year cool and warm periods. Using the theoretical framework of the Budyko curve, we calculated the effects of climate warming on the annual partitioning of precipitation (P) into evapotranspiration (ET) and water yield. Deviation (d) was defined as a catchment's change in actual ET divided by P [AET/P; evaporative index (EI)] coincident with a shift from a cool to a warm period - a positive d indicates an upward shift in EI and smaller than expected water yields, and a negative d indicates a downward shift in EI and larger than expected water yields. Elasticity was defined as the ratio of interannual variation in potential ET divided by P (PET/P; dryness index) to interannual variation in the EI - high elasticity indicates low d despite large range in drying index (i.e., resilient water yields), low elasticity indicates high d despite small range in drying index (i.e., nonresilient water yields). Although the data needed to fully evaluate ecosystems based on these metrics are limited, we were able to identify some characteristics of response among forest types. Alpine sites showed the greatest sensitivity to climate warming with any warming leading to increased water yields. Conifer forests included catchments with lowest elasticity and stable to larger water yields. Deciduous forests included catchments with intermediate elasticity and stable to smaller water yields. Mixed coniferous/deciduous forests included catchments with highest elasticity and stable water yields. Forest type appeared to influence the resilience of catchment water yields to climate warming, with conifer and deciduous catchments more susceptible to

Changing forest water yields in response to climate warming: results from long-term experimental watershed sites across North America

PubMed Central

Creed, Irena F; Spargo, Adam T; Jones, Julia A; Buttle, Jim M; Adams, Mary B; Beall, Fred D; Booth, Eric G; Campbell, John L; Clow, Dave; Elder, Kelly; Green, Mark B; Grimm, Nancy B; Miniat, Chelcy; Ramlal, Patricia; Saha, Amartya; Sebestyen, Stephen; Spittlehouse, Dave; Sterling, Shannon; Williams, Mark W; Winkler, Rita; Yao, Huaxia

2014-01-01

Climate warming is projected to affect forest water yields but the effects are expected to vary. We investigated how forest type and age affect water yield resilience to climate warming. To answer this question, we examined the variability in historical water yields at long-term experimental catchments across Canada and the United States over 5-year cool and warm periods. Using the theoretical framework of the Budyko curve, we calculated the effects of climate warming on the annual partitioning of precipitation (P) into evapotranspiration (ET) and water yield. Deviation (d) was defined as a catchment's change in actual ET divided by P [AET/P; evaporative index (EI)] coincident with a shift from a cool to a warm period – a positive d indicates an upward shift in EI and smaller than expected water yields, and a negative d indicates a downward shift in EI and larger than expected water yields. Elasticity was defined as the ratio of interannual variation in potential ET divided by P (PET/P; dryness index) to interannual variation in the EI – high elasticity indicates low d despite large range in drying index (i.e., resilient water yields), low elasticity indicates high d despite small range in drying index (i.e., nonresilient water yields). Although the data needed to fully evaluate ecosystems based on these metrics are limited, we were able to identify some characteristics of response among forest types. Alpine sites showed the greatest sensitivity to climate warming with any warming leading to increased water yields. Conifer forests included catchments with lowest elasticity and stable to larger water yields. Deciduous forests included catchments with intermediate elasticity and stable to smaller water yields. Mixed coniferous/deciduous forests included catchments with highest elasticity and stable water yields. Forest type appeared to influence the resilience of catchment water yields to climate warming, with conifer and deciduous catchments more susceptible to

Stars Form Surprisingly Close to Milky Way's Black Hole

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

2005-10-01

The supermassive black hole at the center of the Milky Way has surprisingly helped spawn a new generation of stars, according to observations from NASA's Chandra X-ray Observatory. This novel mode of star formation may solve several mysteries about the supermassive black holes that reside at the centers of nearly all galaxies. "Massive black holes are usually known for violence and destruction," said Sergei Nayakshin of the University of Leicester, United Kingdom, and coauthor of a paper on this research in an upcoming issue of the Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. "So it's remarkable that this black hole helped create new stars, not just destroy them." Black holes have earned their fearsome reputation because any material -- including stars -- that falls within the so-called event horizon is never seen again. However, these new results indicate that the immense disks of gas known to orbit many black holes at a "safe" distance from the event horizon can help nurture the formation of new stars. Animation of Stars Forming Around Black Hole Animation of Stars Forming Around Black Hole This conclusion came from new clues that could only be revealed in X-rays. Until the latest Chandra results, astronomers have disagreed about the origin of a mysterious group of massive stars discovered by infrared astronomers to be orbiting less than a light year from the Milky Way's central black hole, a.k.a. Sagittarius A*, or Sgr A*. At such close distances to Sgr A*, the standard model for star formation predicts that gas clouds from which stars form should have been ripped apart by tidal forces from the black hole. Two models to explain this puzzle have been proposed. In the disk model, the gravity of a dense disk of gas around Sgr A* offsets the tidal forces and allows stars to form; in the migration model, the stars formed in a star cluster far away from the black hole and migrated in to form the ring of massive stars. The migration scenario predicts about a

Separate neural representations of prediction error valence and surprise: Evidence from an fMRI meta-analysis.

PubMed

Fouragnan, Elsa; Retzler, Chris; Philiastides, Marios G

2018-03-25

Learning occurs when an outcome differs from expectations, generating a reward prediction error signal (RPE). The RPE signal has been hypothesized to simultaneously embody the valence of an outcome (better or worse than expected) and its surprise (how far from expectations). Nonetheless, growing evidence suggests that separate representations of the two RPE components exist in the human brain. Meta-analyses provide an opportunity to test this hypothesis and directly probe the extent to which the valence and surprise of the error signal are encoded in separate or overlapping networks. We carried out several meta-analyses on a large set of fMRI studies investigating the neural basis of RPE, locked at decision outcome. We identified two valence learning systems by pooling studies searching for differential neural activity in response to categorical positive-versus-negative outcomes. The first valence network (negative > positive) involved areas regulating alertness and switching behaviours such as the midcingulate cortex, the thalamus and the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex whereas the second valence network (positive > negative) encompassed regions of the human reward circuitry such as the ventral striatum and the ventromedial prefrontal cortex. We also found evidence of a largely distinct surprise-encoding network including the anterior cingulate cortex, anterior insula and dorsal striatum. Together with recent animal and electrophysiological evidence this meta-analysis points to a sequential and distributed encoding of different components of the RPE signal, with potentially distinct functional roles. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The Effect of a Yield Stress on the Drainage of the Thin Film Between Two Colliding Newtonian Drops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goel, Sachin; Ramachandran, Arun

2016-11-01

Coalescence of drops immersed in fluids possessing a yield stress has been of interest to many industries such as the oil extraction, cosmetics and food industries. Unfortunately, a theoretical understanding of the drainage of the thin film of Bingham fluid (a model yield stress fluid) that develops between two drops undergoing a collision is still lacking, with the exception of two prior studies that make ad-hoc assumptions about the film shape. In this work, we examine this problem via a combination of scaling analysis and numerical simulations based on the lubrication analysis. There are four key features of the film drainage process of Bingham fluids. First, the introduction of a yield stress in the suspending fluid retards the drainage process relative to Newtonian fluid of the same viscosity. Second, the drainage time shows a minimum with respect to the capillary number. Third, the effect of yield stress on the drainage process becomes more pronounced at higher capillary numbers and lower Hamaker constant. Lastly, below a critical height, drainage can be arrested completely due to the yield stress. This critical height scales as τ02R3 τ02R3 γ2 γ2 , where τ0 is the yield stress, R is the drop radius and γ is the interfacial tension, and is, surprisingly, independent of the force colliding the drops. This and other distinguishing characteristics of the drainage process will be elucidated in the presentation.

The ultimate picture-the combination of live cell superresolution microscopy and single molecule tracking yields highest spatio-temporal resolution.

PubMed

Dersch, Simon; Graumann, Peter L

2018-06-01

We are witnessing a breathtaking development in light (fluorescence) microscopy, where structures can be resolved down to the size of a ribosome within cells. This has already yielded surprising insight into the subcellular structure of cells, including the smallest cells, bacteria. Moreover, it has become possible to visualize and track single fluorescent protein fusions in real time, and quantify molecule numbers within individual cells. Combined, super resolution and single molecule tracking are pushing the limits of our understanding of the spatio-temporal organization even of the smallest cells to an unprecedented depth. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Surprise, Memory, and Retrospective Judgment Making: Testing Cognitive Reconstruction Theories of the Hindsight Bias Effect

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ash, Ivan K.

2009-01-01

Hindsight bias has been shown to be a pervasive and potentially harmful decision-making bias. A review of 4 competing cognitive reconstruction theories of hindsight bias revealed conflicting predictions about the role and effect of expectation or surprise in retrospective judgment formation. Two experiments tested these predictions examining the…

Yield surface evolution for columnar ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Zhiwei; Ma, Wei; Zhang, Shujuan; Mu, Yanhu; Zhao, Shunpin; Li, Guoyu

A series of triaxial compression tests, which has capable of measuring the volumetric strain of the sample, were conducted on columnar ice. A new testing approach of probing the experimental yield surface was performed from a single sample in order to investigate yield and hardening behaviors of the columnar ice under complex stress states. Based on the characteristic of the volumetric strain, a new method of defined the multiaxial yield strengths of the columnar ice is proposed. The experimental yield surface remains elliptical shape in the stress space of effective stress versus mean stress. The effect of temperature, loading rate and loading path in the initial yield surface and deformation properties of the columnar ice were also studied. Subsequent yield surfaces of the columnar ice have been explored by using uniaxial and hydrostatic paths. The evolution of the subsequent yield surface exhibits significant path-dependent characteristics. The multiaxial hardening law of the columnar ice was established experimentally. A phenomenological yield criterion was presented for multiaxial yield and hardening behaviors of the columnar ice. The comparisons between the theoretical and measured results indicate that this current model is capable of giving a reasonable prediction for the multiaxial yield and post-yield properties of the columnar ice subjected to different temperature, loading rate and path conditions.

Surprisingly rational: probability theory plus noise explains biases in judgment.

PubMed

Costello, Fintan; Watts, Paul

2014-07-01

The systematic biases seen in people's probability judgments are typically taken as evidence that people do not use the rules of probability theory when reasoning about probability but instead use heuristics, which sometimes yield reasonable judgments and sometimes yield systematic biases. This view has had a major impact in economics, law, medicine, and other fields; indeed, the idea that people cannot reason with probabilities has become a truism. We present a simple alternative to this view, where people reason about probability according to probability theory but are subject to random variation or noise in the reasoning process. In this account the effect of noise is canceled for some probabilistic expressions. Analyzing data from 2 experiments, we find that, for these expressions, people's probability judgments are strikingly close to those required by probability theory. For other expressions, this account produces systematic deviations in probability estimates. These deviations explain 4 reliable biases in human probabilistic reasoning (conservatism, subadditivity, conjunction, and disjunction fallacies). These results suggest that people's probability judgments embody the rules of probability theory and that biases in those judgments are due to the effects of random noise. (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Examining the roles that changing harvested areas, closing yield-gaps, and increasing yield ceilings have had on crop production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnston, M.; Ray, D. K.; Mueller, N. D.; Foley, J. A.

2011-12-01

With an increasing and increasingly affluent population, there has been tremendous effort to examine strategies for sustainably increasing agricultural production to meet this surging global demand. Before developing new solutions from scratch, though, we believe it is important to consult our recent agricultural history to see where and how agricultural production changes have already taken place. By utilizing the newly created temporal M3 cropland datasets, we can for the first time examine gridded agricultural yields and area, both spatially and temporally. This research explores the historical drivers of agricultural production changes, from 1965-2005. The results will be presented spatially at the global-level (5-min resolution), as well as at the individual country-level. The primary research components of this study are presented below, including the general methodology utilized in each phase and preliminary results for soybean where available. The complete assessment will cover maize, wheat, rice, soybean, and sugarcane, and will include country-specific analysis for over 200 countries, states, territories and protectorates. Phase 1: The first component of our research isolates changes in agricultural production due to variation in planting decisions (harvested area) from changes in production due to intensification efforts (yield). We examine area/yield changes at the pixel-level over 5-year time-steps to determine how much each component has contributed to overall changes in production. Our results include both spatial patterns of changes in production, as well as spatial maps illustrating to what degree the production change is attributed to area and/or yield. Together, these maps illustrate where, why, and by how much agricultural production has changed over time. Phase 2: In the second phase of our research we attempt to determine the impact that area and yield changes have had on agricultural production at the country-level. We calculate a production

Quantifying potential yield and water-limited yield of summer maize in the North China Plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Mingnuo; Liu, Chaoshun; Chen, Maosi

2017-09-01

The North China Plain is a major food producing region in China, and climate change could pose a threat to food production in the region. Based on China Meteorological Forcing Dataset, simulating the growth of summer maize in North China Plain from 1979 to 2015 with the regional implementation of crop growth model WOFOST. The results showed that the model can reflect the potential yield and water-limited yield of Summer Maize in North China Plain through the calibration and validation of WOFOST model. After the regional implementation of model, combined with the reanalysis data, the model can better reproduce the regional history of summer maize yield in the North China Plain. The yield gap in Southeastern Beijing, southern Tianjin, southern Hebei province, Northwestern Shandong province is significant, these means the water condition is the main factor to summer maize yield in these regions.

Maximum sustainable yield and species extinction in a prey-predator system: some new results.

PubMed

Ghosh, Bapan; Kar, T K

2013-06-01

Though the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) approach has been legally adopted for the management of world fisheries, it does not provide any guarantee against from species extinction in multispecies communities. In the present article, we describe the appropriateness of the MSY policy in a Holling-Tanner prey-predator system with different types of functional responses. It is observed that for both type I and type II functional responses, harvesting of either prey or predator species at the MSY level is a sustainable fishing policy. In the case of combined harvesting, both the species coexist at the maximum sustainable total yield (MSTY) level if the biotic potential of the prey species is greater than a threshold value. Further, increase of the biotic potential beyond the threshold value affects the persistence of the system.

Yield and yield gaps in central U.S. corn production systems

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The magnitude of yield gaps (YG) (potential yield – farmer yield) provides some indication of the prospects for increasing crop yield. Quantile regression analysis was applied to county maize (Zea mays L.) yields (1972 – 2011) from Kentucky, Iowa and Nebraska (irrigated) (total of 115 counties) to e...

Yield and Economic Performance of Organic and Conventional Cotton-Based Farming Systems – Results from a Field Trial in India

PubMed Central

Forster, Dionys; Andres, Christian; Verma, Rajeev; Zundel, Christine; Messmer, Monika M.; Mäder, Paul

2013-01-01

The debate on the relative benefits of conventional and organic farming systems has in recent time gained significant interest. So far, global agricultural development has focused on increased productivity rather than on a holistic natural resource management for food security. Thus, developing more sustainable farming practices on a large scale is of utmost importance. However, information concerning the performance of farming systems under organic and conventional management in tropical and subtropical regions is scarce. This study presents agronomic and economic data from the conversion phase (2007–2010) of a farming systems comparison trial on a Vertisol soil in Madhya Pradesh, central India. A cotton-soybean-wheat crop rotation under biodynamic, organic and conventional (with and without Bt cotton) management was investigated. We observed a significant yield gap between organic and conventional farming systems in the 1st crop cycle (cycle 1: 2007–2008) for cotton (−29%) and wheat (−27%), whereas in the 2nd crop cycle (cycle 2: 2009–2010) cotton and wheat yields were similar in all farming systems due to lower yields in the conventional systems. In contrast, organic soybean (a nitrogen fixing leguminous plant) yields were marginally lower than conventional yields (−1% in cycle 1, −11% in cycle 2). Averaged across all crops, conventional farming systems achieved significantly higher gross margins in cycle 1 (+29%), whereas in cycle 2 gross margins in organic farming systems were significantly higher (+25%) due to lower variable production costs but similar yields. Soybean gross margin was significantly higher in the organic system (+11%) across the four harvest years compared to the conventional systems. Our results suggest that organic soybean production is a viable option for smallholder farmers under the prevailing semi-arid conditions in India. Future research needs to elucidate the long-term productivity and profitability, particularly of

Chromosomal Fragmentation: A Possible Marker for the Selection of High Gymnemic Acid Yielding Accessions of Gymnema sylvestre R. Br

PubMed Central

Verma, Ashutosh Kumar; Dhawan, Sunita Singh

2017-01-01

Background: Gymnema sylvestre R. Br. a member of family Asclepiadaceae as mentioned in Indian Pharmacopoeia popular among the researchers because of stimulatory effect of its phytoconstituent on pancreatic cells and potential to treat Type I and II type of diabetes. Objectives: Development of cost-effective marker system for the selection of high gymnemic acid yielding accessions of G. sylvestre. Materials and Methods: Presoaked seeds of Brassica campestris treated with different dilutions of gymnemagenin and 10% leaf extract of twenty different accessions of G. sylvestre. Root tips of germinated seeds were fixed, and chromosomal studies were made by root tip bioassay method. Results: Exposure of seeds to treatment solutions promotes various types of chromosomal anomalies in root meristem, and surprisingly, direct correlation between the percentage of chromosomal fragmentation and the percentage of gymnemic acid shared by treatment solution were observed. Conclusion: Later finding may be explored for the development of a novel methodology or marker system for the selection of high active principle yielding accessions of G. sylvestre. SUMMARY An experiment was carried out using root tip bioassay method for the study of effect of different dilutions of standard gymnemic acid and 10% leaf extract of twenty different accessions of Gymnema sylvestre on root tip meristem of Brassica campestris. Various types of chromosomal anomalies were observed. Of which, percentage of chromosomal fragmentation was showed a direct (∞) relationship with the percentage of gymnemic acid shared by treatment solution. This interesting result after more and more exploration and revalidation could be utilized for the development of a novel methodology for the selection of high active principle yielding accessions of G. sylvestre. Abbreviations used: MI: Mitotic index; CP: Condensed prophase; CM: Clumped metaphase; MC: Metaphase cleft; FR: Fragmentation; AP: Anaphase with persistent

Cloud Surprises Discovered in Moving NASA EOSDIS Applications into Amazon Web Services… and #6 Will Shock You!

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McLaughlin, B. D.; Pawloski, A. W.

2017-12-01

NASA ESDIS has been moving a variety of data ingest, distribution, and science data processing applications into a cloud environment over the last 2 years. As expected, there have been a number of challenges in migrating primarily on-premises applications into a cloud-based environment, related to architecture and taking advantage of cloud-based services. What was not expected is a number of issues that were beyond purely technical application re-architectures. From surprising network policy limitations, billing challenges in a government-based cost model, and obtaining certificates in an NASA security-compliant manner to working with multiple applications in a shared and resource-constrained AWS account, these have been the relevant challenges in taking advantage of a cloud model. And most surprising of all… well, you'll just have to wait and see the "gotcha" that caught our entire team off guard!

The Surprising Composition of the Salivary Proteome of Preterm Human Newborn

PubMed Central

Castagnola, Massimo; Inzitari, Rosanna; Fanali, Chiara; Iavarone, Federica; Vitali, Alberto; Desiderio, Claudia; Vento, Giovanni; Tirone, Chiara; Romagnoli, Costantino; Cabras, Tiziana; Manconi, Barbara; Teresa Sanna, Maria; Boi, Roberto; Pisano, Elisabetta; Olianas, Alessandra; Pellegrini, Mariagiuseppina; Nemolato, Sonia; Wilhelm Heizmann, Claus; Faa, Gavino; Messana, Irene

2011-01-01

Saliva is a body fluid of a unique composition devoted to protect the mouth cavity and the digestive tract. Our high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC)-electrospray ionization-MS analysis of the acidic soluble fraction of saliva from preterm human newborn surprisingly revealed more than 40 protein masses often undetected in adult saliva. We were able to identify the following proteins: stefin A and stefin B, S100A7 (two isoforms), S100A8, S100A9 (four isoforms), S100A11, S100A12, small proline-rich protein 3 (two isoforms), lysozyme C, thymosins β4 and β10, antileukoproteinase, histone H1c, and α and γ globins. The average mass value reported in international data banks was often incongruent with our experimental results mostly because of post-translational modifications of the proteins, e.g. acetylation of the N-terminal residue. A quantitative label-free MS analysis showed protein levels altered in relation to the postconceptional age and suggested coordinate and hierarchical functions for these proteins during development. In summary, this study shows for the first time that analysis of these proteins in saliva of preterm newborns might represent a noninvasive way to obtain precious information of the molecular mechanisms of development of human fetal oral structures. PMID:20943598

Surprising dissimilarities in a newly formed pair of `identical twin' stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stassun, Keivan G.; Mathieu, Robert D.; Cargile, Phillip A.; Aarnio, Alicia N.; Stempels, Eric; Geller, Aaron

2008-06-01

The mass and chemical composition of a star are the primary determinants of its basic physical properties-radius, temperature and luminosity-and how those properties evolve with time. Accordingly, two stars born at the same time, from the same natal material and with the same mass, are `identical twins,' and as such might be expected to possess identical physical attributes. We have discovered in the Orion nebula a pair of stellar twins in a newborn binary star system. Each star in the binary has a mass of 0.41+/-0.01 solar masses, identical to within 2per cent. Here we report that these twin stars have surface temperatures differing by ~300K (~10per cent) and luminosities differing by ~50per cent, both at high confidence level. Preliminary results indicate that the stars' radii also differ, by 5-10per cent. These surprising dissimilarities suggest that one of the twins may have been delayed by several hundred thousand years in its formation relative to its sibling. Such a delay could only have been detected in a very young, definitively equal-mass binary system. Our findings reveal cosmic limits on the age synchronization of young binary stars, often used as tests for the age calibrations of star-formation models.

Changing forest water yields in response to climate warming: results from long-term experimental watershed sites across North America

Treesearch

Irena F. Creed; Adam T. Spargo; Julia A. Jones; Jim M. Buttle; Mary B. Adams; Fred D. Beall; Eric G. Booth; John L. Campbell; Dave Clow; Kelly Elder; Mark B. Green; Nancy B. Grimm; Chelcy Miniat; Patricia Ramlal; Amartya Saha; Stephen Sebestyen; Dave Spittlehouse; Shannon Sterling; Mark W. Williams; Rita Winkler; Huaxia Yao

2014-01-01

Climate warming is projected to affect forest water yields but the effects are expected to vary.We investigated how forest type and age affect water yield resilience to climate warming. To answer this question, we examined the variability in historical water yields at long-term experimental catchments across Canada and the United States over 5-year cool and warm...

Climatic and technological ceilings for Chinese rice stagnation based on yield gaps and yield trend pattern analysis.

PubMed

Zhang, Tianyi; Yang, Xiaoguang; Wang, Hesong; Li, Yong; Ye, Qing

2014-04-01

Climatic or technological ceilings could cause yield stagnation. Thus, identifying the principal reasons for yield stagnation within the context of the local climate and socio-economic conditions are essential for informing regional agricultural policies. In this study, we identified the climatic and technological ceilings for seven rice-production regions in China based on yield gaps and on a yield trend pattern analysis for the period 1980-2010. The results indicate that 54.9% of the counties sampled experienced yield stagnation since the 1980. The potential yield ceilings in northern and eastern China decreased to a greater extent than in other regions due to the accompanying climate effects of increases in temperature and decreases in radiation. This may be associated with yield stagnation and halt occurring in approximately 49.8-57.0% of the sampled counties in these areas. South-western China exhibited a promising scope for yield improvement, showing the greatest yield gap (30.6%), whereas the yields were stagnant in 58.4% of the sampled counties. This finding suggests that efforts to overcome the technological ceiling must be given priority so that the available exploitable yield gap can be achieved. North-eastern China, however, represents a noteworthy exception. In the north-central area of this region, climate change has increased the yield potential ceiling, and this increase has been accompanied by the most rapid increase in actual yield: 1.02 ton ha(-1) per decade. Therefore, north-eastern China shows a great potential for rice production, which is favoured by the current climate conditions and available technology level. Additional environmentally friendly economic incentives might be considered in this region. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Beneficial effects of solar UV-B radiation on soybean yield mediated by reduced insect herbivory under field conditions.

PubMed

Mazza, Carlos A; Giménez, Patricia I; Kantolic, Adriana G; Ballaré, Carlos L

2013-03-01

Ultraviolet-B radiation (UV-B: 280-315 nm) has damaging effects on cellular components and macromolecules. In plants, natural levels of UV-B can reduce leaf area expansion and growth, which can lead to reduced productivity and yield. UV-B can also have important effects on herbivorous insects. Owing to the successful implementation of the Montreal Protocol, current models predict that clear-sky levels of UV-B radiation will decline during this century in response to ozone recovery. However, because of climate change and changes in land use practices, future trends in UV doses are difficult to predict. In the experiments reported here, we used an exclusion approach to study the effects of solar UV-B radiation on soybean crops, which are extensively grown in many areas of the world that may be affected by future variations in UV-B radiation. In a first experiment, performed under normal management practices (which included chemical pest control), we found that natural levels of UV-B radiation reduced soybean yield. In a second experiment, where no pesticides were applied, we found that solar UV-B significantly reduced insect herbivory and, surprisingly, caused a concomitant increase in crop yield. Our data support the idea that UV-B effects on agroecosystems are the result of complex interactions involving multiple trophic levels. A better understanding of the mechanisms that mediate the anti-herbivore effect of UV-B radiation may be used to design crop varieties with improved adaptation to the cropping systems that are likely to prevail in the coming decades in response to agricultural intensification. Copyright © Physiologia Plantarum 2012.

Delayed Carcass Deboning Results in Significantly Reduced Cook Yields of Boneless Skinless Chicken Thighs

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Boneless skinless chicken thighs are a new deboned poultry product in the retail market. Three trials were conducted to investigate the effect of postmortem carcass deboning time on the cook yields of boneless skinless chicken thighs as well as boneless skinless chicken breasts. Broiler carcasses ...

Fission yield measurements at IGISOL

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lantz, M.; Al-Adili, A.; Gorelov, D.; Jokinen, A.; Kolhinen, V. S.; Mattera, A.; Moore, I.; Penttilä, H.; Pomp, S.; Prokofiev, A. V.; Rakopoulos, V.; Rinta-Antila, S.; Simutkin, V.; Solders, A.

2016-06-01

The fission product yields are an important characteristic of the fission process. In fundamental physics, knowledge of the yield distributions is needed to better understand the fission process. For nuclear energy applications good knowledge of neutroninduced fission-product yields is important for the safe and efficient operation of nuclear power plants. With the Ion Guide Isotope Separator On-Line (IGISOL) technique, products of nuclear reactions are stopped in a buffer gas and then extracted and separated by mass. Thanks to the high resolving power of the JYFLTRAP Penning trap, at University of Jyväskylä, fission products can be isobarically separated, making it possible to measure relative independent fission yields. In some cases it is even possible to resolve isomeric states from the ground state, permitting measurements of isomeric yield ratios. So far the reactions U(p,f) and Th(p,f) have been studied using the IGISOL-JYFLTRAP facility. Recently, a neutron converter target has been developed utilizing the Be(p,xn) reaction. We here present the IGISOL-technique for fission yield measurements and some of the results from the measurements on proton induced fission. We also present the development of the neutron converter target, the characterization of the neutron field and the first tests with neutron-induced fission.

Hardening of particle/oil/water suspensions due to capillary bridges: Experimental yield stress and theoretical interpretation.

PubMed

Danov, Krassimir D; Georgiev, Mihail T; Kralchevsky, Peter A; Radulova, Gergana M; Gurkov, Theodor D; Stoyanov, Simeon D; Pelan, Eddie G

2018-01-01

Suspensions of colloid particles possess the remarkable property to solidify upon the addition of minimal amount of a second liquid that preferentially wets the particles. The hardening is due to the formation of capillary bridges (pendular rings), which connect the particles. Here, we review works on the mechanical properties of such suspensions and related works on the capillary-bridge force, and present new rheological data for the weakly studied concentration range 30-55 vol% particles. The mechanical strength of the solidified capillary suspensions, characterized by the yield stress Y, is measured at the elastic limit for various volume fractions of the particles and the preferentially wetting liquid. A quantitative theoretical model is developed, which relates Y with the maximum of the capillary-bridge force, projected on the shear plane. A semi-empirical expression for the mean number of capillary bridges per particle is proposed. The model agrees very well with the experimental data and gives a quantitative description of the yield stress, which increases with the rise of interfacial tension and with the volume fractions of particles and capillary bridges, but decreases with the rise of particle radius and contact angle. The quantitative description of capillary force is based on the exact theory and numerical calculation of the capillary bridge profile at various bridge volumes and contact angles. An analytical formula for Y is also derived. The comparison of the theoretical and experimental strain at the elastic limit reveals that the fluidization of the capillary suspension takes place only in a deformation zone of thickness up to several hundred particle diameters, which is adjacent to the rheometer's mobile plate. The reported experimental results refer to water-continuous suspension with hydrophobic particles and oily capillary bridges. The comparison of data for bridges from soybean oil and hexadecane surprisingly indicate that the yield strength is

Ground Based Experiments in Support of Microgravity Research Results-Vapor Growth of Organic Nonlinear Optical Thin Film

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zugrav, M. Ittu; Carswell, William E.; Haulenbeek, Glen B.; Wessling, Francis C.

2001-01-01

This work is specifically focused on explaining previous results obtained for the crystal growth of an organic material in a reduced gravity environment. On STS-59, in April 1994, two experiments were conducted with N,N-dimethyl-p-(2,2-dicyanovinyl) aniline (DCVA), a promising nonlinear optical (NLO) material. The space experiments were set to reproduce laboratory experiments that yielded small, bulk crystals of DCVA. The results of the flight experiment, however, were surprising. Rather than producing a bulk single crystal, the result was the production of two high quality, single crystalline thin films. This result was even more intriguing when it is considered that thin films are more desirable for NLO applications than are bulk single crystals. Repeated attempts on the ground to reproduce these results were fruitless. A second set of flight experiments was conducted on STS-69 in September 1995. This time eight DCVA experiments were flown, with each of seven experiments containing a slight change from the first reference experiment. The reference experiment was programmed with growth conditions identical to those of the STS-59 mission. The slight variations in each of the other seven were an attempt to understand what particular parameter was responsible for the preference of thin film growth over bulk crystal growth in microgravity. Once again the results were surprising. In all eight cases thin films were grown again, albeit with varying quality. So now we were faced with a phenomenon that not only takes place in microgravity, but also is very robust, resisting all attempts to force the growth of bulk single crystals.

Effect of warming temperatures on US wheat yields.

PubMed

Tack, Jesse; Barkley, Andrew; Nalley, Lawton Lanier

2015-06-02

Climate change is expected to increase future temperatures, potentially resulting in reduced crop production in many key production regions. Research quantifying the complex relationship between weather variables and wheat yields is rapidly growing, and recent advances have used a variety of model specifications that differ in how temperature data are included in the statistical yield equation. A unique data set that combines Kansas wheat variety field trial outcomes for 1985-2013 with location-specific weather data is used to analyze the effect of weather on wheat yield using regression analysis. Our results indicate that the effect of temperature exposure varies across the September-May growing season. The largest drivers of yield loss are freezing temperatures in the Fall and extreme heat events in the Spring. We also find that the overall effect of warming on yields is negative, even after accounting for the benefits of reduced exposure to freezing temperatures. Our analysis indicates that there exists a tradeoff between average (mean) yield and ability to resist extreme heat across varieties. More-recently released varieties are less able to resist heat than older lines. Our results also indicate that warming effects would be partially offset by increased rainfall in the Spring. Finally, we find that the method used to construct measures of temperature exposure matters for both the predictive performance of the regression model and the forecasted warming impacts on yields.

Defining Primary Care Shortage Areas: Do GIS-based Measures Yield Different Results?

PubMed

Daly, Michael R; Mellor, Jennifer M; Millones, Marco

2018-02-12

To examine whether geographic information systems (GIS)-based physician-to-population ratios (PPRs) yield determinations of geographic primary care shortage areas that differ from those based on bounded-area PPRs like those used in the Health Professional Shortage Area (HPSA) designation process. We used geocoded data on primary care physician (PCP) locations and census block population counts from 1 US state to construct 2 shortage area indicators. The first is a bounded-area shortage indicator defined without GIS methods; the second is a GIS-based measure that measures the populations' spatial proximity to PCP locations. We examined agreement and disagreement between bounded shortage areas and GIS-based shortage areas. Bounded shortage area indicators and GIS-based shortage area indicators agree for the census blocks where the vast majority of our study populations reside. Specifically, 95% and 98% of the populations in our full and urban samples, respectively, reside in census blocks where the 2 indicators agree. Although agreement is generally high in rural areas (ie, 87% of the rural population reside in census blocks where the 2 indicators agree), agreement is significantly lower compared to urban areas. One source of disagreement suggests that bounded-area measures may "overlook" some shortages in rural areas; however, other aspects of the HPSA designation process likely mitigate this concern. Another source of disagreement arises from the border-crossing problem, and it is more prevalent. The GIS-based PPRs we employed would yield shortage area determinations that are similar to those based on bounded-area PPRs defined for Primary Care Service Areas. Disagreement rates were lower than previous studies have found. © 2018 National Rural Health Association.

Genotypic Variation in Yield, Yield Components, Root Morphology and Architecture, in Soybean in Relation to Water and Phosphorus Supply

PubMed Central

He, Jin; Jin, Yi; Du, Yan-Lei; Wang, Tao; Turner, Neil C.; Yang, Ru-Ping; Siddique, Kadambot H. M.; Li, Feng-Min

2017-01-01

Water shortage and low phosphorus (P) availability limit yields in soybean. Roots play important roles in water-limited and P-deficient environment, but the underlying mechanisms are largely unknown. In this study we determined the responses of four soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] genotypes [Huandsedadou (HD), Bailudou (BLD), Jindou 21 (J21), and Zhonghuang 30 (ZH)] to three P levels [applied 0 (P0), 60 (P60), and 120 (P120) mg P kg-1 dry soil to the upper 0.4 m of the soil profile] and two water treatment [well-watered (WW) and water-stressed (WS)] with special reference to root morphology and architecture, we compared yield and its components, root morphology and root architecture to find out which variety and/or what kind of root architecture had high grain yield under P and drought stress. The results showed that water stress and low P, respectively, significantly reduced grain yield by 60 and 40%, daily water use by 66 and 31%, P accumulation by 40 and 80%, and N accumulation by 39 and 65%. The cultivar ZH with the lowest daily water use had the highest grain yield at P60 and P120 under drought. Increased root length was positively associated with N and P accumulation in both the WW and WS treatments, but not with grain yield under water and P deficits. However, in the WS treatment, high adventitious and lateral root densities were associated with high N and P uptake per unit root length which in turn was significantly and positively associated with grain yield. Our results suggest that (1) genetic variation of grain yield, daily water use, P and N accumulation, and root morphology and architecture were observed among the soybean cultivars and ZH had the best yield performance under P and water limited conditions; (2) water has a major influence on nutrient uptake and grain yield, while additional P supply can modestly increase yields under drought in some soybean genotypes; (3) while conserved water use plays an important role in grain yield under drought

Genotypic Variation in Yield, Yield Components, Root Morphology and Architecture, in Soybean in Relation to Water and Phosphorus Supply.

PubMed

He, Jin; Jin, Yi; Du, Yan-Lei; Wang, Tao; Turner, Neil C; Yang, Ru-Ping; Siddique, Kadambot H M; Li, Feng-Min

2017-01-01

Water shortage and low phosphorus (P) availability limit yields in soybean. Roots play important roles in water-limited and P-deficient environment, but the underlying mechanisms are largely unknown. In this study we determined the responses of four soybean [ Glycine max (L.) Merr.] genotypes [Huandsedadou (HD), Bailudou (BLD), Jindou 21 (J21), and Zhonghuang 30 (ZH)] to three P levels [applied 0 (P0), 60 (P60), and 120 (P120) mg P kg -1 dry soil to the upper 0.4 m of the soil profile] and two water treatment [well-watered (WW) and water-stressed (WS)] with special reference to root morphology and architecture, we compared yield and its components, root morphology and root architecture to find out which variety and/or what kind of root architecture had high grain yield under P and drought stress. The results showed that water stress and low P, respectively, significantly reduced grain yield by 60 and 40%, daily water use by 66 and 31%, P accumulation by 40 and 80%, and N accumulation by 39 and 65%. The cultivar ZH with the lowest daily water use had the highest grain yield at P60 and P120 under drought. Increased root length was positively associated with N and P accumulation in both the WW and WS treatments, but not with grain yield under water and P deficits. However, in the WS treatment, high adventitious and lateral root densities were associated with high N and P uptake per unit root length which in turn was significantly and positively associated with grain yield. Our results suggest that (1) genetic variation of grain yield, daily water use, P and N accumulation, and root morphology and architecture were observed among the soybean cultivars and ZH had the best yield performance under P and water limited conditions; (2) water has a major influence on nutrient uptake and grain yield, while additional P supply can modestly increase yields under drought in some soybean genotypes; (3) while conserved water use plays an important role in grain yield under drought

Process gg{yields}h{sub 0}{yields}{gamma}{gamma} in the Lee-Wick standard model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krauss, F.; Underwood, T. E. J.; Zwicky, R.

2008-01-01

The process gg{yields}h{sub 0}{yields}{gamma}{gamma} is studied in the Lee-Wick extension of the standard model (LWSM) proposed by Grinstein, O'Connell, and Wise. In this model, negative norm partners for each SM field are introduced with the aim to cancel quadratic divergences in the Higgs mass. All sectors of the model relevant to gg{yields}h{sub 0}{yields}{gamma}{gamma} are diagonalized and results are commented on from the perspective of both the Lee-Wick and higher-derivative formalisms. Deviations from the SM rate for gg{yields}h{sub 0} are found to be of the order of 15%-5% for Lee-Wick masses in the range 500-1000 GeV. Effects on the rate formore » h{sub 0}{yields}{gamma}{gamma} are smaller, of the order of 5%-1% for Lee-Wick masses in the same range. These comparatively small changes may well provide a means of distinguishing the LWSM from other models such as universal extra dimensions where same-spin partners to standard model fields also appear. Corrections to determinations of Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa (CKM) elements |V{sub t(b,s,d)}| are also considered and are shown to be positive, allowing the possibility of measuring a CKM element larger than unity, a characteristic signature of the ghostlike nature of the Lee-Wick fields.« less

[Fall from height--surprising autopsy diagnosis in primarily unclear initial situations].

PubMed

Schyma, Christian; Doberentz, Elke; Madea, Burkhard

2012-01-01

External post-mortem examination and first police assessments are often not consistent with subsequent autopsy results. This is all the more surprising the more serious the injuries found at autopsy are. Such discrepancies result especially from an absence of gross external injuries, as demonstrated by four examples. A 42-year-old, externally uninjured male was found at night time in a helpless condition in the street and died in spite of resuscitation. Autopsy showed severe polytrauma with traumatic brain injury and lesions of the thoracic and abdominal organs. A jump from the third floor was identified as the cause. At dawn, a twenty-year-old male was found dead on the grounds of the adjacent house. Because of the blood-covered head the police assumed a traumatic head injury by strike impact. The external examination revealed only abrasions on the forehead and to a minor extent on the back. At autopsy a midfacial fracture, a trauma of the thorax and abdomen and fractures of the spine and pelvis were detected. Afterwards investigations showed that the man, intoxicated by alcohol, had fallen from the flat roof of a multistoried house. A 77-year-old man was found unconscious on his terrace at day time; a cerebral seizure was assumed. He was transferred to emergency care where he died. The corpse was externally inconspicuous. Autopsy revealed serious traumatic injuries of the brain, thorax, abdomen and pelvis, which could be explained by a fall from the balcony. A 47-year-old homeless person without any external injuries was found dead in a barn. An alcohol intoxication was assumed. At autopsy severe injuries of the brain and cervical spine were found which were the result of a fall from a height of 5 m. On the basis of an external post-mortem examination alone gross blunt force trauma cannot be reliably excluded.

Surprise Realistic Mock Disasters—The Most Effective Means of Disaster Training

PubMed Central

Campanale, Ralph P.

1964-01-01

Realism introduced in several large scale surprise mock-disaster tests proved to be a real challenge to a disaster-conscious hospital staff that had previously undergone fairly extensive disaster training and testing, utilizing conventional methods. Serious weaknesses, flaws, omissions and deficiencies in disaster capability were dramatically and conclusively revealed by use of what appeared to be a “live” disaster setting with smoke, fire, explosions; adverse weather and light conditions; realistically-simulated “casualites” especially prepared not only to look but to act the part; selected harassment incidents from well-documented disasters, such as utility failures, automobile accident on the main access route, overload of telephone switchboard, and invasion of hospital and disaster site by distraught relatives and the morbidly curious. Imagesp436-ap436-bp436-c PMID:14232161

Gender differences in personality traits across cultures: robust and surprising findings.

PubMed

Costa, Paul T; Terracciano, Antonio; McCrae, Robert R

2001-08-01

Secondary analyses of Revised NEO Personality Inventory data from 26 cultures (N = 23,031) suggest that gender differences are small relative to individual variation within genders; differences are replicated across cultures for both college-age and adult samples, and differences are broadly consistent with gender stereotypes: Women reported themselves to be higher in Neuroticism, Agreeableness, Warmth, and Openness to Feelings, whereas men were higher in Assertiveness and Openness to Ideas. Contrary to predictions from evolutionary theory, the magnitude of gender differences varied across cultures. Contrary to predictions from the social role model, gender differences were most pronounced in European and American cultures in which traditional sex roles are minimized. Possible explanations for this surprising finding are discussed, including the attribution of masculine and feminine behaviors to roles rather than traits in traditional cultures.

Atmospheric Fluorescence Yield

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adams, James H., Jr.; Christl, M. J.; Fountain, W. F.; Gregory, J. C.; Martens, K.; Sokolsky, P.; Whitaker, Ann F. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Several existing and planned experiments estimate the energies of ultra-high energy cosmic rays from air showers using the atmospheric fluorescence from these showers. Accurate knowledge of the conversion from atmospheric fluorescence to energy loss by ionizing particles in the atmosphere is key to this technique. In this paper we discuss a small balloon-borne instrument to make the first in situ measurements versus altitude of the atmospheric fluorescence yield. The instrument can also be used in the lab to investigate the dependence of the fluorescence yield in air on temperature, pressure and the concentrations of other gases that present in the atmosphere. The results can be used to explore environmental effects on and improve the accuracy of cosmic ray energy measurements for existing ground-based experiments and future space-based experiments.

Electron-induced electron yields of uncharged insulating materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffmann, Ryan Carl

Presented here are electron-induced electron yield measurements from high-resistivity, high-yield materials to support a model for the yield of uncharged insulators. These measurements are made using a low-fluence, pulsed electron beam and charge neutralization to minimize charge accumulation. They show charging induced changes in the total yield, as much as 75%, even for incident electron fluences of <3 fC/mm2, when compared to an uncharged yield. The evolution of the yield as charge accumulates in the material is described in terms of electron recapture, based on the extended Chung and Everhart model of the electron emission spectrum and the dual dynamic layer model for internal charge distribution. This model is used to explain charge-induced total yield modification measured in high-yield ceramics, and to provide a method for determining electron yield of uncharged, highly insulating, high-yield materials. A sequence of materials with progressively greater charge susceptibility is presented. This series starts with low-yield Kapton derivative called CP1, then considers a moderate-yield material, Kapton HN, and ends with a high-yield ceramic, polycrystalline aluminum oxide. Applicability of conductivity (both radiation induced conductivity (RIC) and dark current conductivity) to the yield is addressed. Relevance of these results to spacecraft charging is also discussed.

Structural controls on geothermal circulation in Surprise Valley, California: A re-evaluation of the Lake City fault zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anne E. Egger,; Glen, Jonathan; McPhee, Darcy K.

2014-01-01

Faults and fractures play an important role in the circulation of geothermal fluids in the crust, and the nature of that role varies according to structural setting and state of stress. As a result, detailed geologic and geophysical mapping that relates thermal springs to known structural features is essential to modeling geothermal systems. Published maps of Surprise Valley in northeastern California suggest that the “Lake City fault” or “Lake City fault zone” is a significant structural feature, cutting obliquely across the basin and connecting thermal springs across the valley. Newly acquired geophysical data (audio-magnetotelluric, gravity, and magnetic), combined with existing geochemical and geological data, suggest otherwise. We examine potential field profiles and resistivity models that cross the mapped Lake City fault zone. While there are numerous geophysical anomalies that suggest subsurface structures, they mostly do not coincide with the mapped traces of the Lake City fault zone, nor do they show a consistent signature in gravity, magnetics, or resistivities that would suggest a through-going fault that would promote connectivity through lateral fluid flow. Instead of a single, continuous fault, we propose the presence of a deformation zone associated with the growth of the range-front Surprise Valley fault. The implication for geothermal circulation is that this is a zone of enhanced porosity but lacks length-wise connectivity that could conduct fluids across the valley. Thermal fluid circulation is most likely controlled primarily by interactions between N-S–trending normal faults.

Satellite-based assessment of grassland yields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grant, K.; Siegmund, R.; Wagner, M.; Hartmann, S.

2015-04-01

Cutting date and frequency are important parameters determining grassland yields in addition to the effects of weather, soil conditions, plant composition and fertilisation. Because accurate and area-wide data of grassland yields are currently not available, cutting frequency can be used to estimate yields. In this project, a method to detect cutting dates via surface changes in radar images is developed. The combination of this method with a grassland yield model will result in more reliable and regional-wide numbers of grassland yields. For the test-phase of the monitoring project, a study area situated southeast of Munich, Germany, was chosen due to its high density of managed grassland. For determining grassland cutting robust amplitude change detection techniques are used evaluating radar amplitude or backscatter statistics before and after the cutting event. CosmoSkyMed and Sentinel-1A data were analysed. All detected cuts were verified according to in-situ measurements recorded in a GIS database. Although the SAR systems had various acquisition geometries, the amount of detected grassland cut was quite similar. Of 154 tested grassland plots, covering in total 436 ha, 116 and 111 cuts were detected using CosmoSkyMed and Sentinel-1A radar data, respectively. Further improvement of radar data processes as well as additional analyses with higher sample number and wider land surface coverage will follow for optimisation of the method and for validation and generalisation of the results of this feasibility study. The automation of this method will than allow for an area-wide and cost efficient cutting date detection service improving grassland yield models.

Heterologous expression of proteins from Plasmodium falciparum: results from 1000 genes.

PubMed

Mehlin, Christopher; Boni, Erica; Buckner, Frederick S; Engel, Linnea; Feist, Tiffany; Gelb, Michael H; Haji, Lutfiyah; Kim, David; Liu, Colleen; Mueller, Natascha; Myler, Peter J; Reddy, J T; Sampson, Joshua N; Subramanian, E; Van Voorhis, Wesley C; Worthey, Elizabeth; Zucker, Frank; Hol, Wim G J

2006-08-01

As part of a structural genomics initiative, 1000 open reading frames from Plasmodium falciparum, the causative agent of the most deadly form of malaria, were tested in an E. coli protein expression system. Three hundred and thirty-seven of these targets were observed to express, although typically the protein was insoluble. Sixty-three of the targets provided soluble protein in yields ranging from 0.9 to 406.6 mg from one liter of rich media. Higher molecular weight, greater protein disorder (segmental analysis, SEG), more basic isoelectric point (pI), and a lack of homology to E. coli proteins were all highly and independently correlated with difficulties in expression. Surprisingly, codon usage and the percentage of adenosines and thymidines (%AT) did not appear to play a significant role. Of those proteins which expressed, high pI and a hypothetical annotation were both strongly and independently correlated with insolubility. The overwhelmingly important role of pI in both expression and solubility appears to be a surprising and fundamental issue in the heterologous expression of P. falciparum proteins in E. coli. Twelve targets which did not express in E. coli from the native gene sequence were codon-optimized through whole gene synthesis, resulting in the (insoluble) expression of three of these proteins. Seventeen targets which were expressed insolubly in E. coli were moved into a baculovirus/Sf-21 system, resulting in the soluble expression of one protein at a high level and six others at a low level. A variety of factors conspire to make the heterologous expression of P. falciparum proteins challenging, and these observations lay the groundwork for a rational approach to prioritizing and, ultimately, eliminating these impediments.

Vascular legacy: HOPE ADVANCEs to EMPA-REG and LEADER: A Surprising similarity.

PubMed

Kalra, Sanjay; Sahay, Rakesh

2017-01-01

Recently reported cardiovascular outcome studies on empagliflozin (EMPA-REG) and liraglutide (LEADER) have spurred interest in this field of diabetology. This commentary compares and contrasts these studies with two equally important outcome trials conducted using blood pressure lowering agents. A comparison with MICROHOPE (using ramipril) and ADVANCE (using perindopril + indapamide) blood pressure arms throws up interesting facts. The degree of blood pressure lowering, dissociation between cardiovascular and cerebrovascular benefits, and discordance between renal and retinal outcomes are surprisingly similar in these trials, conducted using disparate molecules. The time taken to achieve such benefits is similar for all drugs except empagliflozin. Such discussion helps inform rational and evidence-based choice of therapy and forms the framework for future research.

Care initiation area yields dramatic results.

PubMed

2009-03-01

The ED at Gaston Memorial Hospital in Gastonia, NC, has achieved dramatic results in key department metrics with a Care Initiation Area (CIA) and a physician in triage. Here's how the ED arrived at this winning solution: Leadership was trained in and implemented the Kaizen method, which eliminates redundant or inefficient process steps. Simulation software helped determine additional space needed by analyzing arrival patterns and other key data. After only two days of meetings, new ideas were implemented and tested.

Extensive cultivation of soil and water samples yields various pathogens in patients with cystic fibrosis but not Burkholderia multivorans.

PubMed

Peeters, Charlotte; Depoorter, Eliza; Praet, Jessy; Vandamme, Peter

2016-11-01

While the epidemiology of Burkholderia cepacia complex (Bcc) bacteria in cystic fibrosis (CF) patients suggests that Burkholderia multivorans is acquired from environmental sources, this species has rarely been isolated from soil and water samples. Multiple isolation strategies were applied to water and soil samples that were previously shown to be B. multivorans PCR positive. These included direct plating and liquid enrichment procedures and the use of selective media, acclimatizing recovery and co-cultivation with CF sputum. MALDI-TOF mass spectrometry and sequence analysis of 16S rRNA and housekeeping genes were used to identify all isolates. None of the approaches yielded B. multivorans isolates. Other Burkholderia species, several Gram-negative non-fermenting bacteria (including Cupriavidus, Inquilinus, Pandoraea, Pseudomonas and Stenotrophomonas) and rapidly growing mycobacteria (including Mycobacterium chelonae) were all isolated from water and soil samples. The use of Bcc isolation media yielded a surprisingly wide array of rare but often clinically relevant CF pathogens, confirming that soil and water are reservoirs of these infectious agents. Copyright © 2016 European Cystic Fibrosis Society. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The yield and post-yield behavior of high-density polyethylene

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Semeliss, M. A.; Wong, R.; Tuttle, M. E.

1990-01-01

An experimental and analytical evaluation was made of the yield and post-yield behavior of high-density polyethylene, a semi-crystalline thermoplastic. Polyethylene was selected for study because it is very inexpensive and readily available in the form of thin-walled tubes. Thin-walled tubular specimens were subjected to axial loads and internal pressures, such that the specimens were subjected to a known biaxial loading. A constant octahederal shear stress rate was imposed during all tests. The measured yield and post-yield behavior was compared with predictions based on both isotropic and anisotropic models. Of particular interest was whether inelastic behavior was sensitive to the hydrostatic stress level. The major achievements and conclusions reached are discussed.

An adapted yield criterion for the evolution of subsequent yield surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Küsters, N.; Brosius, A.

2017-09-01

In numerical analysis of sheet metal forming processes, the anisotropic material behaviour is often modelled with isotropic work hardening and an average Lankford coefficient. In contrast, experimental observations show an evolution of the Lankford coefficients, which can be associated with a yield surface change due to kinematic and distortional hardening. Commonly, extensive efforts are carried out to describe these phenomena. In this paper an isotropic material model based on the Yld2000-2d criterion is adapted with an evolving yield exponent in order to change the yield surface shape. The yield exponent is linked to the accumulative plastic strain. This change has the effect of a rotating yield surface normal. As the normal is directly related to the Lankford coefficient, the change can be used to model the evolution of the Lankford coefficient during yielding. The paper will focus on the numerical implementation of the adapted material model for the FE-code LS-Dyna, mpi-version R7.1.2-d. A recently introduced identification scheme [1] is used to obtain the parameters for the evolving yield surface and will be briefly described for the proposed model. The suitability for numerical analysis will be discussed for deep drawing processes in general. Efforts for material characterization and modelling will be compared to other common yield surface descriptions. Besides experimental efforts and achieved accuracy, the potential of flexibility in material models and the risk of ambiguity during identification are of major interest in this paper.

High-yield synthesis of a unique Mn(iii) siloxide complex through KMnO4 oxidation of a Mn(ii) precursor.

PubMed

Lorenz, Volker; Ehle, Sophie; Liebing, Phil; Engelhardt, Felix; Hashemi-Haeri, Haleh; Oehler, Florian; Hinderberger, Dariush; Busse, Sabine; Urbaschok, Jens; Edelmann, Frank T

2017-12-19

A unique trivalent manganese siloxide complex, blue-violet Mn III Li 2 Cl[(Ph 2 SiO) 2 O] 2 (THF) 4 ·2THF (3) has been prepared by a straightforward two-step synthetic protocol. Lithiation of (Ph 2 SiOH) 2 O (1) followed by reaction with MnCl 2 (THF) 2 gave the structurally remarkable Mn(ii) precursor Mn II Li 4 Cl 2 [(Ph 2 SiO) 2 O] 2 (THF) 5 ·2THF (2). Surprisingly, the final oxidation step could be achieved using KMnO 4 in THF to provide the Mn(iii) species 3 in high yield (91%). Both title compounds were structurally characterized by single-crystal X-ray diffraction.

Study of the strong {sigma}{sub c}{yields}{lambda}{sub c}{pi},{sigma}{sub c}*{yields}{lambda}{sub c}{pi} and {xi}{sub c}*{yields}{xi}{sub c}{pi} decays in a nonrelativistic quark model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Albertus, C.; Nieves, J.; Hernandez, E.

We present results for the strong widths corresponding to the {sigma}{sub c}{yields}{lambda}{sub c}{pi}, {sigma}{sub c}*{yields}{lambda}{sub c}{pi} and {xi}{sub c}*{yields}{xi}{sub c}{pi} decays. The calculations have been done in a nonrelativistic constituent quark model with wave functions that take advantage of the constraints imposed by heavy quark symmetry. Partial conservation of axial current hypothesis allows us to determine the strong vertices from an analysis of the axial current matrix elements. Our results {gamma}({sigma}{sub c}{sup ++}{yields}{lambda}{sub c}{sup +}{pi}{sup +})=2.41{+-}0.07{+-}0.02 MeV, {gamma}({sigma}{sub c}{sup +}{yields}{lambda}{sub c}{sup +}{pi}{sup 0})=2.79{+-}0.08{+-}0.02 MeV, {gamma}({sigma}{sub c}{sup 0}{yields}{lambda}{sub c}{sup +}{pi}{sup -})=2.37{+-}0.07{+-}0.02 MeV, {gamma}({sigma}{sub c}*{sup ++}{yields}{lambda}{sub c}{sup +}{pi}{sup +})=17.52{+-}0.74{+-}0.12 MeV, {gamma}({sigma}{sub c}*{supmore » +}{yields}{lambda}{sub c}{sup +}{pi}{sup 0})=17.31{+-}0.73{+-}0.12 MeV, {gamma}({sigma}{sub c}*{sup 0}{yields}{lambda}{sub c}{sup +}{pi}{sup -})=16.90{+-}0.71{+-}0.12 MeV, {gamma}({xi}{sub c}*{sup +}{yields}{xi}{sub c}{sup 0}{pi}{sup +}+{xi}{sub c}{sup +}{pi}{sup 0})=3.18{+-}0.10{+-}0.01 MeV, and {gamma}({xi}{sub c}*{sup 0}{yields}{xi}{sub c}{sup +}{pi}{sup -}+{xi}{sub c}{sup 0}{pi}{sup 0})=3.03{+-}0.10{+-}0.01 MeV are in good agreement with experimental determinations.« less

A conceptual geochemical model of the geothermal system at Surprise Valley, CA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fowler, Andrew P. G.; Ferguson, Colin; Cantwell, Carolyn A.; Zierenberg, Robert A.; McClain, James; Spycher, Nicolas; Dobson, Patrick

2018-03-01

Characterizing the geothermal system at Surprise Valley (SV), northeastern California, is important for determining the sustainability of the energy resource, and mitigating hazards associated with hydrothermal eruptions that last occurred in 1951. Previous geochemical studies of the area attempted to reconcile different hot spring compositions on the western and eastern sides of the valley using scenarios of dilution, equilibration at low temperatures, surface evaporation, and differences in rock type along flow paths. These models were primarily supported using classical geothermometry methods, and generally assumed that fluids in the Lake City mud volcano area on the western side of the valley best reflect the composition of a deep geothermal fluid. In this contribution, we address controls on hot spring compositions using a different suite of geochemical tools, including optimized multicomponent geochemistry (GeoT) models, hot spring fluid major and trace element measurements, mineralogical observations, and stable isotope measurements of hot spring fluids and precipitated carbonates. We synthesize the results into a conceptual geochemical model of the Surprise Valley geothermal system, and show that high-temperature (quartz, Na/K, Na/K/Ca) classical geothermometers fail to predict maximum subsurface temperatures because fluids re-equilibrated at progressively lower temperatures during outflow, including in the Lake City area. We propose a model where hot spring fluids originate as a mixture between a deep thermal brine and modern meteoric fluids, with a seasonally variable mixing ratio. The deep brine has deuterium values at least 3 to 4‰ lighter than any known groundwater or high-elevation snow previously measured in and adjacent to SV, suggesting it was recharged during the Pleistocene when meteoric fluids had lower deuterium values. The deuterium values and compositional characteristics of the deep brine have only been identified in thermal springs and

Quantifying yield gaps in wheat production in Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schierhorn, Florian; Faramarzi, Monireh; Prishchepov, Alexander V.; Koch, Friedrich J.; Müller, Daniel

2014-08-01

Crop yields must increase substantially to meet the increasing demands for agricultural products. Crop yield increases are particularly important for Russia because low crop yields prevail across Russia’s widespread and fertile land resources. However, reliable data are lacking regarding the spatial distribution of potential yields in Russia, which can be used to determine yield gaps. We used a crop growth model to determine the yield potentials and yield gaps of winter and spring wheat at the provincial level across European Russia. We modeled the annual yield potentials from 1995 to 2006 with optimal nitrogen supplies for both rainfed and irrigated conditions. Overall, the results suggest yield gaps of 1.51-2.10 t ha-1, or 44-52% of the yield potential under rainfed conditions. Under irrigated conditions, yield gaps of 3.14-3.30 t ha-1, or 62-63% of the yield potential, were observed. However, recurring droughts cause large fluctuations in yield potentials under rainfed conditions, even when the nitrogen supply is optimal, particularly in the highly fertile black soil areas of southern European Russia. The highest yield gaps (up to 4 t ha-1) under irrigated conditions were detected in the steppe areas in southeastern European Russia along the border of Kazakhstan. Improving the nutrient and water supply and using crop breeds that are adapted to the frequent drought conditions are important for reducing yield gaps in European Russia. Our regional assessment helps inform policy and agricultural investors and prioritize research that aims to increase crop production in this important region for global agricultural markets.

Benefits of seasonal forecasts of crop yields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakurai, G.; Okada, M.; Nishimori, M.; Yokozawa, M.

2017-12-01

Major factors behind recent fluctuations in food prices include increased biofuel production and oil price fluctuations. In addition, several extreme climate events that reduced worldwide food production coincided with upward spikes in food prices. The stabilization of crop yields is one of the most important tasks to stabilize food prices and thereby enhance food security. Recent development of technologies related to crop modeling and seasonal weather forecasting has made it possible to forecast future crop yields for maize and soybean. However, the effective use of these technologies remains limited. Here we present the potential benefits of seasonal crop-yield forecasts on a global scale for choice of planting day. For this purpose, we used a model (PRYSBI-2) that can well replicate past crop yields both for maize and soybean. This model system uses a Bayesian statistical approach to estimate the parameters of a basic process-based model of crop growth. The spatial variability of model parameters was considered by estimating the posterior distribution of the parameters from historical yield data by using the Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method with a resolution of 1.125° × 1.125°. The posterior distributions of model parameters were estimated for each spatial grid with 30 000 MCMC steps of 10 chains each. By using this model and the estimated parameter distributions, we were able to estimate not only crop yield but also levels of associated uncertainty. We found that the global average crop yield increased about 30% as the result of the optimal selection of planting day and that the seasonal forecast of crop yield had a large benefit in and near the eastern part of Brazil and India for maize and the northern area of China for soybean. In these countries, the effects of El Niño and Indian Ocean dipole are large. The results highlight the importance of developing a system to forecast global crop yields.

The Ultraviolet Surprise. Efficient Soft X-Ray High Harmonic Generation in Multiply-Ionized Plasmas

DOE PAGES

Popmintchev, Dimitar; Hernandez-Garcia, Carlos; Dollar, Franklin; ...

2015-12-04

High-harmonic generation is a universal response of matter to strong femtosecond laser fields, coherently upconverting light to much shorter wavelengths. Optimizing the conversion of laser light into soft x-rays typically demands a trade-off between two competing factors. Reduced quantum diffusion of the radiating electron wave function results in emission from each species which is highest when a short-wavelength ultraviolet driving laser is used. But, phase matching—the constructive addition of x-ray waves from a large number of atoms—favors longer-wavelength mid-infrared lasers. We identified a regime of high-harmonic generation driven by 40-cycle ultraviolet lasers in waveguides that can generate bright beams inmore » the soft x-ray region of the spectrum, up to photon energies of 280 electron volts. Surprisingly, the high ultraviolet refractive indices of both neutral atoms and ions enabled effective phase matching, even in a multiply ionized plasma. We observed harmonics with very narrow linewidths, while calculations show that the x-rays emerge as nearly time-bandwidth–limited pulse trains of ~100 attoseconds.« less

A surprisingly simple correlation between the classical and quantum structural networks in liquid water

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hamm, Peter; Fanourgakis, George S.; Xantheas, Sotiris S.

Nuclear quantum effects in liquid water have profound implications for several of its macroscopic properties related to structure, dynamics, spectroscopy and transport. Although several of water’s macroscopic properties can be reproduced by classical descriptions of the nuclei using potentials effectively parameterized for a narrow range of its phase diagram, a proper account of the nuclear quantum effects is required in order to ensure that the underlying molecular interactions are transferable across a wide temperature range covering different regions of that diagram. When performing an analysis of the hydrogen bonded structural networks in liquid water resulting from the classical (class.) andmore » quantum (q.m.) descriptions of the nuclei with the transferable, flexible, polarizable TTM3-F interaction potential, we found that the two results can be superimposed over the temperature range of T=270-350 K using a surprisingly simple, linear scaling of the two temperatures according to T(q.m.)=aT(class)- T , where a=1.2 and T=51 K. The linear scaling and constant shift of the temperature scale can be considered as a generalization of the previously reported temperature shifts (corresponding to structural changes and the melting T) induced by quantum effects in liquid water.« less

Chromosomal Fragmentation: A Possible Marker for the Selection of High Gymnemic Acid Yielding Accessions of Gymnema sylvestre R. Br.

PubMed

Verma, Ashutosh Kumar; Dhawan, Sunita Singh

2017-10-01

Gymnema sylvestre R. Br. a member of family Asclepiadaceae as mentioned in Indian Pharmacopoeia popular among the researchers because of stimulatory effect of its phytoconstituent on pancreatic cells and potential to treat Type I and II type of diabetes. Development of cost-effective marker system for the selection of high gymnemic acid yielding accessions of G. sylvestre . Presoaked seeds of Brassica campestris treated with different dilutions of gymnemagenin and 10% leaf extract of twenty different accessions of G. sylvestre . Root tips of germinated seeds were fixed, and chromosomal studies were made by root tip bioassay method. Exposure of seeds to treatment solutions promotes various types of chromosomal anomalies in root meristem, and surprisingly, direct correlation between the percentage of chromosomal fragmentation and the percentage of gymnemic acid shared by treatment solution were observed. Later finding may be explored for the development of a novel methodology or marker system for the selection of high active principle yielding accessions of G. sylvestre . An experiment was carried out using root tip bioassay method for the study of effect of different dilutions of standard gymnemic acid and 10% leaf extract of twenty different accessions of Gymnema sylvestre on root tip meristem of Brassica campestris . Various types of chromosomal anomalies were observed. Of which, percentage of chromosomal fragmentation was showed a direct (∞) relationship with the percentage of gymnemic acid shared by treatment solution. This interesting result after more and more exploration and revalidation could be utilized for the development of a novel methodology for the selection of high active principle yielding accessions of G. sylvestre . Abbreviations used: MI: Mitotic index; CP: Condensed prophase; CM: Clumped metaphase; MC: Metaphase cleft; FR: Fragmentation; AP: Anaphase with persistent nucleolous; LA: Laggard, BR: Bridge; BI: Bi-nucleated cell; DA: Disturbed

The Nucleus of Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko: Lots of Surprises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weissman, Paul R.; Rosetta Science Working Team

2016-10-01

ESA's Rosetta mission has made many new and unexpected discoveries since its arrival at comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko in August 2014. The first of these was the unusual shape of the cometary nucleus. Although bilobate nuclei had been seen before, the extreme concavities on 67P were unexpected. Evidence gathered during the mission suggests that two independent bodies came together to form 67P, rather than the nucleus being a single body that was sculpted by sublimation and/or other processes. Although not a surprise, early observations showed that the nucleus rotation period had decreased by ~22 minutes since the previous aphelion passage. A similar rotation period decrease was seen post-perihelion during the encounter. These changes likely arise from asymmetric jetting forces from the irregular nucleus. Initially, Rosetta's instruments found little evidence for water ice on the surface; the presence of surface water ice increased substantially as the nucleus approached perihelion. The nucleus bulk density, 533 ± 6 kg/m3, was measured with Radio Science and OSIRIS imaging of the nucleus volume. This confirmed previous estimates based on indirect methods that the bulk density of cometary nuclei was on the order of 500-600 kg/m3 and on measurement of the density of 9P/Tempel 1's nucleus by Deep Impact. Nucleus topography proved to be highly varied, from smooth dust-covered plains to shallow circular basins, to the very rough terrain where the Philae lander came to rest. Evidence of thermal cracking is everywhere. The discovery of cylindrical pits on the surface, typically 100-200m in diameter with similar depths was a major surprise and has been interpreted as sinkholes. "Goose-bump" terrain consisting of apparently random piles of boulders 2-3 m in diameter was another unexpected discovery. Apparent layering with scales of meters to many tens of meters was seen but there was little or no evidence for impact features. Radar tomography of the interior of the "head

Surprising connections: the diverse world of magnetic resonance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Callaghan, Paul

2004-10-01

When Rutherford discovered the atomic nucleus he could not possibly have imagined that it might be a window to understanding molecular biology, or how the brain works. And yet so it has come to pass. It is the through the magnetism of the nucleus that these insights, and so much more, are possible. The phenomenon of ``Nuclear Magnetic Resonance'' has proven an essential tool in physics, it has revolutionised chemistry and biochemistry, it has made astonishing contributions to medicine, and is now making an impact in geophysics, chemical engineering and food technology. It is even finding applications in new security technologies and in testing fundamental ideas concerning quantum computing. But the story of Magnetic Resonance is much more than the application of a well-established method to new areas of science. The technique itself continues to evolve. Magnetic Resonance has now garnered 6 Nobel prizes, two of them in the last two years. For a technique that has been around for nearly 60 years, it is really quite extraordinary that such accolades are still being given to new developments in the methodology. This talk will explain why the nuclear spin is so ubiquitous and interdisciplinary, and so rich in its fundamental physics. It will illustrate how unpredictable and surprising are the consequences of a major scientific discovery. For funding agencies determined to direct research activities towards predicted benefits, the conclusion drawn may provide a salutary lesson.

Atom Surprise: Using Theatre in Primary Science Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peleg, Ran; Baram-Tsabari, Ayelet

2011-10-01

Early exposure to science may have a lifelong effect on children's attitudes towards science and their motivation to learn science in later life. Out-of-class environments can play a significant role in creating favourable attitudes, while contributing to conceptual learning. Educational science theatre is one form of an out-of-class environment, which has received little research attention. This study aims to describe affective and cognitive learning outcomes of watching such a play and to point to connections between theatrical elements and specific outcomes. "Atom Surprise" is a play portraying several concepts on the topic of matter. A mixed methods approach was adopted to investigate the knowledge and attitudes of children (grades 1-6) from two different school settings who watched the play. Data were gathered using questionnaires and in-depth interviews. Analysis suggested that in both schools children's knowledge on the topic of matter increased after the play with younger children gaining more conceptual knowledge than their older peers. In the public school girls showed greater gains in conceptual knowledge than boys. No significant changes in students' general attitudes towards science were found, however, students demonstrated positive changes towards science learning. Theatrical elements that seemed to be important in children's recollection of the play were the narrative, props and stage effects, and characters. In the children's memory, science was intertwined with the theatrical elements. Nonetheless, children could distinguish well between scientific facts and the fictive narrative.

Geophysical Studies in the Vicinity of the Warner Mountains and Surprise Valley, Northeast California, Northwest Nevada, and Southern Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ponce, David A.; Glen, Jonathan M.G.; Egger, Anne E.; Bouligand, Claire; Watt, Janet T.; Morin, Robert L.

2009-01-01

From May 2006 to August 2007, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) collected 793 gravity stations, about 102 line-kilometers of truck-towed and ground magnetometer data, and about 325 physical-property measurements in northeastern California, northwestern Nevada, and southern Oregon. Gravity, magnetic, and physical-property data were collected to study regional crustal structures and geology as an aid to understanding the geologic framework of the Surprise Valley geothermal area and, in general, geothermal systems throughout the Great Basin. The Warner Mountains and Surprise Valley mark the transition from the extended Basin and Range province to the unextended Modoc Plateau. This transition zone, in the northwestern corner of the Basin and Range, is relatively diffuse compared to other, more distinct boundaries, such as the Wasatch front in Utah and the eastern Sierran range front. In addition, this transition zone is the site of a geothermal system with potential for development, and previous studies have revealed a complex structural setting consisting of several obliquely oriented fault sets. As a result, this region has been the subject of several recent geological and geophysical investigations. The gravity and magnetic data presented here support and supplement those studies, and although the study area is composed predominantly of Tertiary volcanic rocks of the Modoc Plateau rocks, the physical properties of these and others rocks create a distinguishable pattern of gravity and magnetic anomalies that can be used to infer subsurface geologic structure.

Regional crop yield forecasting: a probabilistic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Wit, A.; van Diepen, K.; Boogaard, H.

2009-04-01

Information on the outlook on yield and production of crops over large regions is essential for government services dealing with import and export of food crops, for agencies with a role in food relief, for international organizations with a mandate in monitoring the world food production and trade, and for commodity traders. Process-based mechanistic crop models are an important tool for providing such information, because they can integrate the effect of crop management, weather and soil on crop growth. When properly integrated in a yield forecasting system, the aggregated model output can be used to predict crop yield and production at regional, national and continental scales. Nevertheless, given the scales at which these models operate, the results are subject to large uncertainties due to poorly known weather conditions and crop management. Current yield forecasting systems are generally deterministic in nature and provide no information about the uncertainty bounds on their output. To improve on this situation we present an ensemble-based approach where uncertainty bounds can be derived from the dispersion of results in the ensemble. The probabilistic information provided by this ensemble-based system can be used to quantify uncertainties (risk) on regional crop yield forecasts and can therefore be an important support to quantitative risk analysis in a decision making process.

Random Forests for Global and Regional Crop Yield Predictions.

PubMed

Jeong, Jig Han; Resop, Jonathan P; Mueller, Nathaniel D; Fleisher, David H; Yun, Kyungdahm; Butler, Ethan E; Timlin, Dennis J; Shim, Kyo-Moon; Gerber, James S; Reddy, Vangimalla R; Kim, Soo-Hyung

2016-01-01

Accurate predictions of crop yield are critical for developing effective agricultural and food policies at the regional and global scales. We evaluated a machine-learning method, Random Forests (RF), for its ability to predict crop yield responses to climate and biophysical variables at global and regional scales in wheat, maize, and potato in comparison with multiple linear regressions (MLR) serving as a benchmark. We used crop yield data from various sources and regions for model training and testing: 1) gridded global wheat grain yield, 2) maize grain yield from US counties over thirty years, and 3) potato tuber and maize silage yield from the northeastern seaboard region. RF was found highly capable of predicting crop yields and outperformed MLR benchmarks in all performance statistics that were compared. For example, the root mean square errors (RMSE) ranged between 6 and 14% of the average observed yield with RF models in all test cases whereas these values ranged from 14% to 49% for MLR models. Our results show that RF is an effective and versatile machine-learning method for crop yield predictions at regional and global scales for its high accuracy and precision, ease of use, and utility in data analysis. RF may result in a loss of accuracy when predicting the extreme ends or responses beyond the boundaries of the training data.

Yield Advances in Peanut

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Average yields of peanut in the U.S. set an all time record of 4,695 kg ha-1 in 2012. This far exceeded the previous record yield of 3,837 kg ha-1 in 2008. Favorable weather conditions undoubtedly contributed to the record yields in 2012; however, these record yields would not have been achievable...

Effects of capillarity and microtopography on wetland specific yield

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sumner, D.M.

2007-01-01

Hydrologic models aid in describing water flows and levels in wetlands. Frequently, these models use a specific yield conceptualization to relate water flows to water level changes. Traditionally, a simple conceptualization of specific yield is used, composed of two constant values for above- and below-surface water levels and neglecting the effects of soil capillarity and land surface microtopography. The effects of capiltarity and microtopography on specific yield were evaluated at three wetland sites in the Florida Everglades. The effect of capillarity on specific yield was incorporated based on the fillable pore space within a soil moisture profile at hydrostatic equilibrium with the water table. The effect of microtopography was based on areal averaging of topographically varying values of specific yield. The results indicate that a more physically-based conceptualization of specific yield incorporating capillary and microtopographic considerations can be substantially different from the traditional two-part conceptualization, and from simpler conceptualizations incorporating only capillarity or only microtopography. For the sites considered, traditional estimates of specific yield could under- or overestimate the more physically based estimates by a factor of two or more. The results suggest that consideration of both capillarity and microtopography is important to the formulation of specific yield in physically based hydrologic models of wetlands. ?? 2007, The Society of Wetland Scientists.

Effect of a Surprising Downward Shift in Reinforcer Value on Stimulus Over-Selectivity in a Simultaneous Discrimination Procedure

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reynolds, Gemma; Reed, Phil

2013-01-01

Stimulus over-selectivity refers to the phenomenon whereby behavior is controlled by a subset of elements in the environment at the expense of other equally salient aspects of the environment. The experiments explored whether this cue interference effect was reduced following a surprising downward shift in reinforcer value. Experiment 1 revealed…

Water yield and hydrology

Treesearch

Pamela J. Edwards; Charles A. Troendle

2012-01-01

Investigations of hydrologic responses resulting from reducing vegetation density are fairly common throughout the Eastern United States. Although most studies have focused on the potential for increasing water yields or documenting effects from intensive practices that far exceed what would be done for fuel-reduction objectives, data from some less-intensive...

Surprises from quenches in long-range-interacting systems: temperature inversion and cooling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, Shamik; Casetti, Lapo

2016-10-01

What happens when one of the parameters governing the dynamics of a long-range interacting system of particles in thermal equilibrium is abruptly changed (quenched) to a different value? While a short-range system, under the same conditions, will relax in time to a new thermal equilibrium with a uniform temperature across the system, a long-range system shows a fast relaxation to a non-equilibrium quasistationary state (QSS). The lifetime of such an off-equilibrium state diverges with the system size, and the temperature is non-uniform across the system. Quite surprisingly, the density profile in the QSS obtained after the quench is anticorrelated with the temperature profile in space, thus exhibiting the phenomenon of temperature inversion: denser regions are colder than sparser ones. We illustrate with extensive molecular dynamics simulations the ubiquity of this scenario in a prototypical long-range interacting system subject to a variety of quenching protocols, and in a model that mimics an experimental setup of atoms interacting with light in an optical cavity. We further demonstrate how a procedure of iterative quenching combined with filtering out the high-energy particles in the system may be employed to cool the system. Temperature inversion is observed in nature in some astrophysical settings; our results imply that such a phenomenon should be observable, and could even be exploitable to advantage, also in controlled laboratory experiments.

CORY: A Computer Program for Determining Dimension Stock Yields

Treesearch

Charles C Brunner; Marshall S. White; Fred M. Lamb; James G. Schroeder

1989-01-01

CORY is a computer program that calculates random-width, fixed-length cutting yields and best sawing sequences for either rip- or crosscut-first operations. It differs from other yield calculating programs by evaluating competing cuttings through conflict resolution models. Comparisons with Program YIELD resulted in a 9 percent greater cutting volume and a 98 percent...

Electron Stimulated Desorption Yields at the Mercury's Surface Based On Hybrid Simulation Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Travnicek, P. M.; Schriver, D.; Orlando, T. M.; Hellinger, P.

2016-12-01

In terms of previous research concerning the solar wind sputtering process, most of the focus has been on ion sputtering by precipitating solar wind protons, however, precipitating electrons can also result in the desorption of neutrals and ions from Mercury's surface and represents a potentially significant source of exospheric and heavy ion components. Electron stimulated desorption (ESD) is not bound by optical selection rules and electron impact energies can vary over a much wider range, including core-level excitations that easily lead to multi-electron shake up events that can cascade into localized multiple charged states that Coulomb explode with extreme kinetic energy release (up to 8 eV = 186,000 K). While considered for the lunar exosphere, ESD has not been adequately studied or quantified as a producer of neutrals and ions. ESD is a well known process which involves the excitation (often ionization) of a surface target followed by charge ejection, bond breaking and ion expulsion due to the resultant Coulomb repulsion. Though the role of ESD processes has not been discussed much with respect to Mercury, the impinging energetic electrons that are transported through the magnetosphere and precipitate can induce significant material removal. Given the energetics and the wide band-gap nature of the minerals, the departing material may also be primarily ionic. The possible role of 5 eV - 1 keV electron stimulated desorption and dissociation in "weathering" the regolith can be significant. ESD yields will be calculated based on the ion and electron precipitation profiles for the already carried out hybrid and electron simulations. Neutral and ion cloud profiles around Mercury will be calculated and combined with those profiles expected from PSD and MIV.

The surprising rolling spool: librational motion and failure of the pure rolling condition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Onorato, P.; Malgieri, M.; Mascheretti, P.; De Ambrosis, A.

2015-05-01

In a previous work (Onorato P, Malgieri M, Mascheretti P and De Ambrosis A 2014 The surprising rolling spool: experiments and theory from mechanics to phase transitions Eur. J. Phys. 35 055011) an asymmetric rolling spool (ARS) was investigated as a simple model for a second-order phase transition. Here, we deepen the study of this system to address critical aspects related both to the characteristic of the oscillatory anharmonic motion and to the role of friction forces in determining it. The experimental data show that for largely asymmetric bodies the rolling condition is not reliably fulfilled because the intensity of the friction force goes below the needed value to ensure rolling without slipping.

From Lithium-Ion to Sodium-Ion Batteries: Advantages, Challenges, and Surprises.

PubMed

Nayak, Prasant Kumar; Yang, Liangtao; Brehm, Wolfgang; Adelhelm, Philipp

2018-01-02

Mobile and stationary energy storage by rechargeable batteries is a topic of broad societal and economical relevance. Lithium-ion battery (LIB) technology is at the forefront of the development, but a massively growing market will likely put severe pressure on resources and supply chains. Recently, sodium-ion batteries (SIBs) have been reconsidered with the aim of providing a lower-cost alternative that is less susceptible to resource and supply risks. On paper, the replacement of lithium by sodium in a battery seems straightforward at first, but unpredictable surprises are often found in practice. What happens when replacing lithium by sodium in electrode reactions? This review provides a state-of-the art overview on the redox behavior of materials when used as electrodes in lithium-ion and sodium-ion batteries, respectively. Advantages and challenges related to the use of sodium instead of lithium are discussed. © 2018 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Report of the Defense Science Board 2008 Summer Study on Capability Surprise. Volume 2: Supporting Papers

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

on Capability Surprise Volume II: Supporting Papers DTX-C January 2010 20100128212 This report is a product of the Defense Science Board (DSB...place within DOD or the interagency to help decide which events to act on aggressively, which to treat to a lesser degree, and which to ignore, at...three panels reporting herein agree on the need: • To establish a high-level organization, the Capability Assessment, Warning, and Response Office, to

Soviet test yields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vergino, Eileen S.

Soviet seismologists have published descriptions of 96 nuclear explosions conducted from 1961 through 1972 at the Semipalatinsk test site, in Kazakhstan, central Asia [Bocharov et al., 1989]. With the exception of releasing news about some of their peaceful nuclear explosions (PNEs) the Soviets have never before published such a body of information.To estimate the seismic yield of a nuclear explosion it is necessary to obtain a calibrated magnitude-yield relationship based on events with known yields and with a consistent set of seismic magnitudes. U.S. estimation of Soviet test yields has been done through application of relationships to the Soviet sites based on the U.S. experience at the Nevada Test Site (NTS), making some correction for differences due to attenuation and near-source coupling of seismic waves.

Mapping quantitative trait loci with additive effects and additive x additive epistatic interactions for biomass yield, grain yield, and straw yield using a doubled haploid population of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.).

PubMed

Li, Z K; Jiang, X L; Peng, T; Shi, C L; Han, S X; Tian, B; Zhu, Z L; Tian, J C

2014-02-28

Biomass yield is one of the most important traits for wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)-breeding programs. Increasing the yield of the aerial parts of wheat varieties will be an integral component of future wheat improvement; however, little is known regarding the genetic control of aerial part yield. A doubled haploid population, comprising 168 lines derived from a cross between two winter wheat cultivars, 'Huapei 3' (HP3) and 'Yumai 57' (YM57), was investigated. Quantitative trait loci (QTL) for total biomass yield, grain yield, and straw yield were determined for additive effects and additive x additive epistatic interactions using the QTLNetwork 2.0 software based on the mixed-linear model. Thirteen QTL were determined to have significant additive effects for the three yield traits, of which six also exhibited epistatic effects. Eleven significant additive x additive interactions were detected, of which seven occurred between QTL showing epistatic effects only, two occurred between QTL showing epistatic effects and additive effects, and two occurred between QTL with additive effects. These QTL explained 1.20 to 10.87% of the total phenotypic variation. The QTL with an allele originating from YM57 on chromosome 4B and another QTL contributed by HP3 alleles on chromosome 4D were simultaneously detected on the same or adjacent chromosome intervals for the three traits in two environments. Most of the repeatedly detected QTL across environments were not significant (P > 0.05). These results have implications for selection strategies in wheat biomass yield and for increasing the yield of the aerial part of wheat.

Impact of heterozygosity and heterogeneity on cotton lint yield stability: II. Lint yield components

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In order to determine which yield components may contribute to yield stability, an 18-environment field study was undertaken to observe the mean, standard deviation (SD), and coefficient of variation (CV) for cotton lint yield components in population types that differed for lint yield stability. Th...

Predicting Great Lakes fish yields: tools and constraints

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lewis, C.A.; Schupp, D.H.; Taylor, W.W.; Collins, J.J.; Hatch, Richard W.

1987-01-01

Prediction of yield is a critical component of fisheries management. The development of sound yield prediction methodology and the application of the results of yield prediction are central to the evolution of strategies to achieve stated goals for Great Lakes fisheries and to the measurement of progress toward those goals. Despite general availability of species yield models, yield prediction for many Great Lakes fisheries has been poor due to the instability of the fish communities and the inadequacy of available data. A host of biological, institutional, and societal factors constrain both the development of sound predictions and their application to management. Improved predictive capability requires increased stability of Great Lakes fisheries through rehabilitation of well-integrated communities, improvement of data collection, data standardization and information-sharing mechanisms, and further development of the methodology for yield prediction. Most important is the creation of a better-informed public that will in turn establish the political will to do what is required.

Absolute quantum yield measurement of powder samples.

PubMed

Moreno, Luis A

2012-05-12

Measurement of fluorescence quantum yield has become an important tool in the search for new solutions in the development, evaluation, quality control and research of illumination, AV equipment, organic EL material, films, filters and fluorescent probes for bio-industry. Quantum yield is calculated as the ratio of the number of photons absorbed, to the number of photons emitted by a material. The higher the quantum yield, the better the efficiency of the fluorescent material. For the measurements featured in this video, we will use the Hitachi F-7000 fluorescence spectrophotometer equipped with the Quantum Yield measuring accessory and Report Generator program. All the information provided applies to this system. Measurement of quantum yield in powder samples is performed following these steps: 1. Generation of instrument correction factors for the excitation and emission monochromators. This is an important requirement for the correct measurement of quantum yield. It has been performed in advance for the full measurement range of the instrument and will not be shown in this video due to time limitations. 2. Measurement of integrating sphere correction factors. The purpose of this step is to take into consideration reflectivity characteristics of the integrating sphere used for the measurements. 3. Reference and Sample measurement using direct excitation and indirect excitation. 4. Quantum Yield calculation using Direct and Indirect excitation. Direct excitation is when the sample is facing directly the excitation beam, which would be the normal measurement setup. However, because we use an integrating sphere, a portion of the emitted photons resulting from the sample fluorescence are reflected by the integrating sphere and will re-excite the sample, so we need to take into consideration indirect excitation. This is accomplished by measuring the sample placed in the port facing the emission monochromator, calculating indirect quantum yield and correcting the direct

Raising yield potential in wheat: increasing photosynthesis capacity and efficiency

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Increasing wheat yields to help to ensure food security is a major challenge. Meeting this challenge requires a quantum improvement in the yield potential of wheat. Past increases in yield potential have largely resulted from improvements in harvest index not through increased biomass. Further large...

Plants and climate change: complexities and surprises.

PubMed

Parmesan, Camille; Hanley, Mick E

2015-11-01

Anthropogenic climate change (ACC) will influence all aspects of plant biology over coming decades. Many changes in wild species have already been well-documented as a result of increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations, warming climate and changing precipitation regimes. A wealth of available data has allowed the use of meta-analyses to examine plant-climate interactions on more sophisticated levels than before. These analyses have revealed major differences in plant response among groups, e.g. with respect to functional traits, taxonomy, life-history and provenance. Interestingly, these meta-analyses have also exposed unexpected mismatches between theory, experimental, and observational studies. We reviewed the literature on species' responses to ACC, finding ∼42 % of 4000 species studied globally are plants (primarily terrestrial). We review impacts on phenology, distributions, ecophysiology, regeneration biology, plant-plant and plant-herbivore interactions, and the roles of plasticity and evolution. We focused on apparent deviations from expectation, and highlighted cases where more sophisticated analyses revealed that unexpected changes were, in fact, responses to ACC. We found that conventionally expected responses are generally well-understood, and that it is the aberrant responses that are now yielding greater insight into current and possible future impacts of ACC. We argue that inconclusive, unexpected, or counter-intuitive results should be embraced in order to understand apparent disconnects between theory, prediction, and observation. We highlight prime examples from the collection of papers in this Special Issue, as well as general literature. We found use of plant functional groupings/traits had mixed success, but that some underutilized approaches, such as Grime's C/S/R strategies, when incorporated, have improved understanding of observed responses. Despite inherent difficulties, we highlight the need for ecologists to conduct community

Plants and climate change: complexities and surprises

PubMed Central

Parmesan, Camille; Hanley, Mick E.

2015-01-01

Background Anthropogenic climate change (ACC) will influence all aspects of plant biology over coming decades. Many changes in wild species have already been well-documented as a result of increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations, warming climate and changing precipitation regimes. A wealth of available data has allowed the use of meta-analyses to examine plant–climate interactions on more sophisticated levels than before. These analyses have revealed major differences in plant response among groups, e.g. with respect to functional traits, taxonomy, life-history and provenance. Interestingly, these meta-analyses have also exposed unexpected mismatches between theory, experimental, and observational studies. Scope We reviewed the literature on species’ responses to ACC, finding ∼42 % of 4000 species studied globally are plants (primarily terrestrial). We review impacts on phenology, distributions, ecophysiology, regeneration biology, plant–plant and plant–herbivore interactions, and the roles of plasticity and evolution. We focused on apparent deviations from expectation, and highlighted cases where more sophisticated analyses revealed that unexpected changes were, in fact, responses to ACC. Conclusions We found that conventionally expected responses are generally well-understood, and that it is the aberrant responses that are now yielding greater insight into current and possible future impacts of ACC. We argue that inconclusive, unexpected, or counter-intuitive results should be embraced in order to understand apparent disconnects between theory, prediction, and observation. We highlight prime examples from the collection of papers in this Special Issue, as well as general literature. We found use of plant functional groupings/traits had mixed success, but that some underutilized approaches, such as Grime's C/S/R strategies, when incorporated, have improved understanding of observed responses. Despite inherent difficulties, we highlight the need for

Twisted intra-abdominal cyst in a neonate: a surprise revelation.

PubMed

Mohamed, Ferzine; Telugu, Ramesh Babu; Karl, Immanuel Sampath

2017-08-08

We, herein, present a male neonate with an antenatally detected intra-abdominal cyst who presented at 18 days of life at which time, the ultrasound revealed a 5×4 cm cyst. Since he was asymptomatic, we planned to repeat the ultrasound a month later and operate if the cyst showed no regression. However, a week later, he presented with an acute abdomen, irritable cry and a repeat ultrasound showing a larger (8×6 cm) cystic mass with debris within. He was taken up for an emergency laparotomy. Intraoperatively, the cyst was found arising from the left lateral abdominal wall free from all structures with a twisted pedicle. Histopathology surprisingly revealed seminiferous tubules within the cyst wall with the vas deferens, thus confirming the diagnosis of a torsion of intra-abdominal testis. Hence, we emphasise the importance of examining for an undescended testis when dealing with a male neonate presenting with a cystic intra-abdominal mass. © BMJ Publishing Group Ltd (unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Modelling crop yield in Iberia under drought conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribeiro, Andreia; Páscoa, Patrícia; Russo, Ana; Gouveia, Célia

2017-04-01

The improved assessment of the cereal yield and crop loss under drought conditions are essential to meet the increasing economy demands. The growing frequency and severity of the extreme drought conditions in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) has been likely responsible for negative impacts on agriculture, namely on crop yield losses. Therefore, a continuous monitoring of vegetation activity and a reliable estimation of drought impacts is crucial to contribute for the agricultural drought management and development of suitable information tools. This works aims to assess the influence of drought conditions in agricultural yields over the IP, considering cereal yields from mainly rainfed agriculture for the provinces with higher productivity. The main target is to develop a strategy to model drought risk on agriculture for wheat yield at a province level. In order to achieve this goal a combined assessment was made using a drought indicator (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI) to evaluate drought conditions together with a widely used vegetation index (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI) to monitor vegetation activity. A correlation analysis between detrended wheat yield and SPEI was performed in order to assess the vegetation response to each time scale of drought occurrence and also identify the moment of the vegetative cycle when the crop yields are more vulnerable to drought conditions. The time scales and months of SPEI, together with the months of NDVI, better related with wheat yield were chosen to perform a multivariate regression analysis to simulate crop yield. Model results are satisfactory and highlighted the usefulness of such analysis in the framework of developing a drought risk model for crop yields. In terms of an operational point of view, the results aim to contribute to an improved understanding of crop yield management under dry conditions, particularly adding substantial information on the advantages of combining

Using normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to estimate sugarcane yield and yield components

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Sugarcane (Saccharum spp.) yield and yield components are important traits for growers and scientists to evaluate and select cultivars. Collection of these yield data would be labor intensive and time consuming in the early selection stages of sugarcane breeding cultivar development programs with a ...

Evolution Projects Yield Results

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sparks, Sarah D.

2010-01-01

When a federal court in 2005 rejected an attempt by the Dover, Pennsylvania, school board to introduce intelligent design as an alternative to evolution to explain the development of life on Earth, it sparked a renaissance in involvement among scientists in K-12 science instruction. Now, some of those teaching programs, studies, and research…

How Big Was It? Getting at Yield

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasyanos, M.; Walter, W. R.; Ford, S. R.

2013-12-01

One of the most coveted pieces of information in the wake of a nuclear test is the explosive yield. Determining the yield from remote observations, however, is not necessarily a trivial thing. For instance, recorded observations of seismic amplitudes, used to estimate the yield, are significantly modified by the intervening media, which varies widely, and needs to be properly accounted for. Even after correcting for propagation effects such as geometrical spreading, attenuation, and station site terms, getting from the resulting source term to a yield depends on the specifics of the explosion source model, including material properties, and depth. Some formulas are based on assumptions of the explosion having a standard depth-of-burial and observed amplitudes can vary if the actual test is either significantly overburied or underburied. We will consider the complications and challenges of making these determinations using a number of standard, more traditional methods and a more recent method that we have developed using regional waveform envelopes. We will do this comparison for recent declared nuclear tests from the DPRK. We will also compare the methods using older explosions at the Nevada Test Site with announced yields, material and depths, so that actual performance can be measured. In all cases, we also strive to quantify realistic uncertainties on the yield estimation.

Anomalous effects in the aluminum oxide sputtering yield

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schelfhout, R.; Strijckmans, K.; Depla, D.

2018-04-01

The sputtering yield of aluminum oxide during reactive magnetron sputtering has been quantified by a new and fast method. The method is based on the meticulous determination of the reactive gas consumption during reactive DC magnetron sputtering and has been deployed to determine the sputtering yield of aluminum oxide. The accuracy of the proposed method is demonstrated by comparing its results to the common weight loss method excluding secondary effects such as redeposition. Both methods exhibit a decrease in sputtering yield with increasing discharge current. This feature of the aluminum oxide sputtering yield is described for the first time. It resembles the discrepancy between published high sputtering yield values determined by low current ion beams and the low deposition rate in the poisoned mode during reactive magnetron sputtering. Moreover, the usefulness of the new method arises from its time-resolved capabilities. The evolution of the alumina sputtering yield can now be measured up to a resolution of seconds. This reveals the complex dynamical behavior of the sputtering yield. A plausible explanation of the observed anomalies seems to originate from the balance between retention and out-diffusion of implanted gas atoms, while other possible causes are commented.

Characterizing bias correction uncertainty in wheat yield predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortiz, Andrea Monica; Jones, Julie; Freckleton, Robert; Scaife, Adam

2017-04-01

Farming systems are under increased pressure due to current and future climate change, variability and extremes. Research on the impacts of climate change on crop production typically rely on the output of complex Global and Regional Climate Models, which are used as input to crop impact models. Yield predictions from these top-down approaches can have high uncertainty for several reasons, including diverse model construction and parameterization, future emissions scenarios, and inherent or response uncertainty. These uncertainties propagate down each step of the 'cascade of uncertainty' that flows from climate input to impact predictions, leading to yield predictions that may be too complex for their intended use in practical adaptation options. In addition to uncertainty from impact models, uncertainty can also stem from the intermediate steps that are used in impact studies to adjust climate model simulations to become more realistic when compared to observations, or to correct the spatial or temporal resolution of climate simulations, which are often not directly applicable as input into impact models. These important steps of bias correction or calibration also add uncertainty to final yield predictions, given the various approaches that exist to correct climate model simulations. In order to address how much uncertainty the choice of bias correction method can add to yield predictions, we use several evaluation runs from Regional Climate Models from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment over Europe (EURO-CORDEX) at different resolutions together with different bias correction methods (linear and variance scaling, power transformation, quantile-quantile mapping) as input to a statistical crop model for wheat, a staple European food crop. The objective of our work is to compare the resulting simulation-driven hindcasted wheat yields to climate observation-driven wheat yield hindcasts from the UK and Germany in order to determine ranges of yield

Assessment of cluster yield components by image analysis.

PubMed

Diago, Maria P; Tardaguila, Javier; Aleixos, Nuria; Millan, Borja; Prats-Montalban, Jose M; Cubero, Sergio; Blasco, Jose

2015-04-01

Berry weight, berry number and cluster weight are key parameters for yield estimation for wine and tablegrape industry. Current yield prediction methods are destructive, labour-demanding and time-consuming. In this work, a new methodology, based on image analysis was developed to determine cluster yield components in a fast and inexpensive way. Clusters of seven different red varieties of grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) were photographed under laboratory conditions and their cluster yield components manually determined after image acquisition. Two algorithms based on the Canny and the logarithmic image processing approaches were tested to find the contours of the berries in the images prior to berry detection performed by means of the Hough Transform. Results were obtained in two ways: by analysing either a single image of the cluster or using four images per cluster from different orientations. The best results (R(2) between 69% and 95% in berry detection and between 65% and 97% in cluster weight estimation) were achieved using four images and the Canny algorithm. The model's capability based on image analysis to predict berry weight was 84%. The new and low-cost methodology presented here enabled the assessment of cluster yield components, saving time and providing inexpensive information in comparison with current manual methods. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.

Recent patterns of crop yield growth and stagnation.

PubMed

Ray, Deepak K; Ramankutty, Navin; Mueller, Nathaniel D; West, Paul C; Foley, Jonathan A

2012-01-01

In the coming decades, continued population growth, rising meat and dairy consumption and expanding biofuel use will dramatically increase the pressure on global agriculture. Even as we face these future burdens, there have been scattered reports of yield stagnation in the world's major cereal crops, including maize, rice and wheat. Here we study data from ∼2.5 million census observations across the globe extending over the period 1961-2008. We examined the trends in crop yields for four key global crops: maize, rice, wheat and soybeans. Although yields continue to increase in many areas, we find that across 24-39% of maize-, rice-, wheat- and soybean-growing areas, yields either never improve, stagnate or collapse. This result underscores the challenge of meeting increasing global agricultural demands. New investments in underperforming regions, as well as strategies to continue increasing yields in the high-performing areas, are required.

Composition and structure of the martian upper atmosphere: analysis of results from viking.

PubMed

McElroy, M B; Kong, T Y; Yung, Y L; Nier, A O

1976-12-11

Densities for carbon dioxide measured by the upper atmospheric mass spectrometers on Viking 1 and Viking 2 are analyzed to yield height profiles for the temperature of the martian atmosphere between 120 and 200 kilometers. Densities for nitrogen and argon are used to derive vertical profiles for the eddy diffusion coefficient over the same height range. The upper atmosphere of Mars is surprisingly cold with average temperatures for both Viking 1 and Viking 2 of less than 200 degrees K, and there is significant vertical structure. Model calculations are presented and shown to be in good agreement with measured concentrations of carbon monoxide, oxygen, and nitric oxide.

Estimating variability in grain legume yields across Europe and the Americas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cernay, Charles; Ben-Ari, Tamara; Pelzer, Elise; Meynard, Jean-Marc; Makowski, David

2015-06-01

Grain legume production in Europe has recently come under scrutiny. Although legume crops are often promoted to provide environmental services, European farmers tend to turn to non-legume crops. It is assumed that high variability in legume yields explains this aversion, but so far this hypothesis has not been tested. Here, we estimate the variability of major grain legume and non-legume yields in Europe and the Americas from yield time series over 1961-2013. Results show that grain legume yields are significantly more variable than non-legume yields in Europe. These differences are smaller in the Americas. Our results are robust at the level of the statistical methods. In all regions, crops with high yield variability are allocated to less than 1% of cultivated areas. Although the expansion of grain legumes in Europe may be hindered by high yield variability, some species display risk levels compatible with the development of specialized supply chains.

Interactive effects of pests increase seed yield.

PubMed

Gagic, Vesna; Riggi, Laura Ga; Ekbom, Barbara; Malsher, Gerard; Rusch, Adrien; Bommarco, Riccardo

2016-04-01

Loss in seed yield and therefore decrease in plant fitness due to simultaneous attacks by multiple herbivores is not necessarily additive, as demonstrated in evolutionary studies on wild plants. However, it is not clear how this transfers to crop plants that grow in very different conditions compared to wild plants. Nevertheless, loss in crop seed yield caused by any single pest is most often studied in isolation although crop plants are attacked by many pests that can cause substantial yield losses. This is especially important for crops able to compensate and even overcompensate for the damage. We investigated the interactive impacts on crop yield of four insect pests attacking different plant parts at different times during the cropping season. In 15 oilseed rape fields in Sweden, we estimated the damage caused by seed and stem weevils, pollen beetles, and pod midges. Pest pressure varied drastically among fields with very low correlation among pests, allowing us to explore interactive impacts on yield from attacks by multiple species. The plant damage caused by each pest species individually had, as expected, either no, or a negative impact on seed yield and the strongest negative effect was caused by pollen beetles. However, seed yield increased when plant damage caused by both seed and stem weevils was high, presumably due to the joint plant compensatory reaction to insect attack leading to overcompensation. Hence, attacks by several pests can change the impact on yield of individual pest species. Economic thresholds based on single species, on which pest management decisions currently rely, may therefore result in economically suboptimal choices being made and unnecessary excessive use of insecticides.

Multiple yielding processes in a colloidal gel under large amplitude oscillatory stress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gibaud, Thomas; Perge, Christophe; Lindström, Stefan B.; Taberlet, Nicolas; Manneville, Sébastien

Fatigue refers to the changes in material properties caused by repeatedly applied loads. It has been widely studied for, e.g., construction materials, but much less has been done on soft materials. Here, we characterize the fatigue dynamics of a colloidal gel. Fatigue is induced by large amplitude oscillatory stress (LAOStress), and the local displacements of the gel are measured through high-frequency ultrasonic imaging. We show that fatigue eventually leads to rupture and fluidization. We evidence four successive steps associated with these dynamics: (i) the gel first remains solid, (ii) it then slides against the walls, (iii) the bulk of the sample becomes heterogeneous and displays solid-fluid coexistence, and (iv) it is finally fully fluidized. It is possible to homogeneously scale the duration of each step with respect to the stress oscillation amplitude $\\sigma_0$. The data are compatible with both exponential and power-law scalings with $\\sigma_0$, which hints at two possible interpretations in terms of delayed yielding in terms activated processes or of the Basquin law. Surprisingly, we find that the model parameters behave nonmonotonically as we change the oscillation frequency and/or the gel concentration.

Anomalous DD and TT yields relative to the DT yield in inertial-confinement-fusion implosions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casey, Daniel T.

2011-10-01

Measurements of the D(d,p)T (DD), T(t,2n)4He (TT) and D(t,n)4He (DT) reactions have been conducted using deuterium-tritium gas-filled inertial confinement fusion (ICF) implosions. In these experiments, which were carried out at the OMEGA laser facility, absolute spectral measurements of the DD protons and TT neutrons were conducted and compared to neutron-time-of-flight measured DT-neutron yields. From these measurements, it is concluded that the DD yield is anomalously low and the TT yield is anomalously high relative to the DT yield, an effect that is enhanced with increasing ion temperature. These results can be explained by an enrichment of tritium in the core of an ICF implosion, which may be present in ignition experiments planned on the National Ignition Facility. In addition, the spectral measurements of the TT-neutron spectrum were conducted for the first time at reactant central-mass energies in the range of 15-30 keV. The results from these measurements indicate that the TT reaction proceeds primarily through the direct three-body reaction channel, producing a continuous TT-neutron spectrum in the range 0 - 9.5 MeV. This work was conducted in collaboration with J. A. Frenje, M. Gatu Johnson, M. J.-E. Manuel, H. G. Rinderknecht, N. Sinenian, F. H. Seguin, C. K. Li, R. D. Petrasso, P. B. Radha, J. A. Delettrez, V. Yu Glebov, D. D. Meyerhofer, T. C. Sangster, D. P. McNabb, P. A. Amendt, R. N. Boyd, J. R. Rygg, H. W. Herrmann, Y. H. Kim, G. P. Grim and A. D. Bacher. This work was supported in part by the U.S. Department of Energy (Grant No. DE-FG03-03SF22691), LLE (subcontract Grant No. 412160-001G), LLNL (subcontract Grant No. B504974).

Modulus and yield stress of drawn LDPE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thavarungkul, Nandh

Modulus and yield stress were investigated in drawn low density polyethylene (LDPE) film. Uniaxially drawn polymeric films usually show high values of modulus and yield stress, however, studies have normally only been conducted to identify the structural features that determine modulus. In this study small-angle x-ray scattering (SAXS), thermal shrinkage, birefringence, differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), and dynamic mechanical thermal analysis (DMTA) were used to examine, directly and indirectly, the structural features that determine both modulus and yield stress, which are often closely related in undrawn materials. Shish-kebab structures are proposed to account for the mechanical properties in drawn LDPE. The validity of this molecular/morphological model was tested using relationships between static mechanical data and structural and physical parameters. In addition, dynamic mechanical results are also in line with static data in supporting the model. In the machine direction (MD), "shish" and taut tie molecules (TTM) anchored in the crystalline phase account for E; whereas crystal lamellae with contributions from "shish" and TTM determine yield stress. In the transverse direction (TD), the crystalline phase plays an important roll in both modulus and yield stress. Modulus is determined by crystal lamellae functioning as platelet reinforcing elements in the amorphous matrix with an additional contributions from TTM and yield stress is determined by the crystal lamellae's resistance to deformation.

Maximized exoEarth candidate yields for starshades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stark, Christopher C.; Shaklan, Stuart; Lisman, Doug; Cady, Eric; Savransky, Dmitry; Roberge, Aki; Mandell, Avi M.

2016-10-01

The design and scale of a future mission to directly image and characterize potentially Earth-like planets will be impacted, to some degree, by the expected yield of such planets. Recent efforts to increase the estimated yields, by creating observation plans optimized for the detection and characterization of Earth-twins, have focused solely on coronagraphic instruments; starshade-based missions could benefit from a similar analysis. Here we explore how to prioritize observations for a starshade given the limiting resources of both fuel and time, present analytic expressions to estimate fuel use, and provide efficient numerical techniques for maximizing the yield of starshades. We implemented these techniques to create an approximate design reference mission code for starshades and used this code to investigate how exoEarth candidate yield responds to changes in mission, instrument, and astrophysical parameters for missions with a single starshade. We find that a starshade mission operates most efficiently somewhere between the fuel- and exposuretime-limited regimes and, as a result, is less sensitive to photometric noise sources as well as parameters controlling the photon collection rate in comparison to a coronagraph. We produced optimistic yield curves for starshades, assuming our optimized observation plans are schedulable and future starshades are not thrust-limited. Given these yield curves, detecting and characterizing several dozen exoEarth candidates requires either multiple starshades or an η≳0.3.

Climate change and maize yield in Iowa

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Hong; Twine, Tracy E.; Girvetz, Evan

Climate is changing across the world, including the major maize-growing state of Iowa in the USA. To maintain crop yields, farmers will need a suite of adaptation strategies, and choice of strategy will depend on how the local to regional climate is expected to change. Here we predict how maize yield might change through the 21 st century as compared with late 20 th century yields across Iowa, USA, a region representing ideal climate and soils for maize production that contributes substantially to the global maize economy. To account for climate model uncertainty, we drive a dynamic ecosystem model withmore » output from six climate models and two future climate forcing scenarios. Despite a wide range in the predicted amount of warming and change to summer precipitation, all simulations predict a decrease in maize yields from late 20 th century to middle and late 21 st century ranging from 15% to 50%. Linear regression of all models predicts a 6% state-averaged yield decrease for every 1°C increase in warm season average air temperature. When the influence of moisture stress on crop growth is removed from the model, yield decreases either remain the same or are reduced, depending on predicted changes in warm season precipitation. Lastly, our results suggest that even if maize were to receive all the water it needed, under the strongest climate forcing scenario yields will decline by 10-20% by the end of the 21 st century.« less

Climate change and maize yield in Iowa

DOE PAGES

Xu, Hong; Twine, Tracy E.; Girvetz, Evan

2016-05-24

Climate is changing across the world, including the major maize-growing state of Iowa in the USA. To maintain crop yields, farmers will need a suite of adaptation strategies, and choice of strategy will depend on how the local to regional climate is expected to change. Here we predict how maize yield might change through the 21 st century as compared with late 20 th century yields across Iowa, USA, a region representing ideal climate and soils for maize production that contributes substantially to the global maize economy. To account for climate model uncertainty, we drive a dynamic ecosystem model withmore » output from six climate models and two future climate forcing scenarios. Despite a wide range in the predicted amount of warming and change to summer precipitation, all simulations predict a decrease in maize yields from late 20 th century to middle and late 21 st century ranging from 15% to 50%. Linear regression of all models predicts a 6% state-averaged yield decrease for every 1°C increase in warm season average air temperature. When the influence of moisture stress on crop growth is removed from the model, yield decreases either remain the same or are reduced, depending on predicted changes in warm season precipitation. Lastly, our results suggest that even if maize were to receive all the water it needed, under the strongest climate forcing scenario yields will decline by 10-20% by the end of the 21 st century.« less

The Surprising Absence of Absorption in the Far-ultraviolet Spectrum of Mrk 231

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Veilleux, S.; Trippe, M.; Hamann, F.; Rupke, D. S. N.; Tripp, T. M.; Netzer, H.; Lutz, D.; Sembach, K. R.; Krug, H.; Teng, Stacy H.;

Measurements of branching fraction ratios and CP-asymmetries in suppressed B{sup -}{yields}D({yields}K{sup +}{pi}{sup -})K{sup -} and B{sup -}{yields}D({yields}K{sup +}{pi}{sup -}){pi}{sup -} decays

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aaltonen, T.; Brucken, E.; Devoto, F.

2011-11-01

We report the first reconstruction in hadron collisions of the suppressed decays B{sup -}{yields}D({yields}K{sup +}{pi}{sup -})K{sup -} and B{sup -}{yields}D({yields}K{sup +}{pi}{sup -}){pi}{sup -}, sensitive to the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa phase {gamma}, using data from 7 fb{sup -1} of integrated luminosity collected by the CDF II detector at the Tevatron collider. We reconstruct a signal for the B{sup -}{yields}D({yields}K{sup +}{pi}{sup -})K{sup -} suppressed mode with a significance of 3.2 standard deviations, and measure the ratios of the suppressed to favored branching fractions R(K)=[22.0{+-}8.6(stat){+-}2.6(syst)]x10{sup -3}, R{sup +}(K)=[42.6{+-}13.7(stat){+-}2.8(syst)]x10{sup -3}, R{sup -}(K)=[3.8{+-}10.3(stat){+-}2.7(syst)]x10{sup -3} as well as the direct CP-violating asymmetry A(K)=-0.82{+-}0.44(stat){+-}0.09(syst) of this mode. Corresponding quantitiesmore » for B{sup -}{yields}D({yields}K{sup +}{pi}{sup -}){pi}{sup -} decay are also reported.« less

High yield fabrication of fluorescent nanodiamonds

PubMed Central

Boudou, Jean-Paul; Curmi, Patrick; Jelezko, Fedor; Wrachtrup, Joerg; Aubert, Pascal; Sennour, Mohamed; Balasubramanian, Gopalakrischnan; Reuter, Rolf; Thorel, Alain; Gaffet, Eric

2009-01-01

A new fabrication method to produce homogeneously fluorescent nanodiamonds with high yields is described. The powder obtained by high energy ball milling of fluorescent high pressure, high temperature diamond microcrystals was converted in a pure concentrated aqueous colloidal dispersion of highly crystalline ultrasmall nanoparticles with a mean size less than or equal to 10 nm. The whole fabrication yield of colloidal quasi-spherical nanodiamonds was several orders of magnitude higher than those previously reported starting from microdiamonds. The results open up avenues for the industrial cost-effective production of fluorescent nanodiamonds with well-controlled properties. PMID:19451687

Blackleg (Leptosphaeria maculans) Severity and Yield Loss in Canola in Alberta, Canada

PubMed Central

Hwang, Sheau-Fang; Strelkov, Stephen E.; Peng, Gary; Ahmed, Hafiz; Zhou, Qixing; Turnbull, George

2016-01-01

Blackleg, caused by Leptosphaeria maculans, is an important disease of oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.) in Canada and throughout the world. Severe epidemics of blackleg can result in significant yield losses. Understanding disease-yield relationships is a prerequisite for measuring the agronomic efficacy and economic benefits of control methods. Field experiments were conducted in 2013, 2014, and 2015 to determine the relationship between blackleg disease severity and yield in a susceptible cultivar and in moderately resistant to resistant canola hybrids. Disease severity was lower, and seed yield was 120%–128% greater, in the moderately resistant to resistant hybrids compared with the susceptible cultivar. Regression analysis showed that pod number and seed yield declined linearly as blackleg severity increased. Seed yield per plant decreased by 1.8 g for each unit increase in disease severity, corresponding to a decline in yield of 17.2% for each unit increase in disease severity. Pyraclostrobin fungicide reduced disease severity in all site-years and increased yield. These results show that the reduction of blackleg in canola crops substantially improves yields. PMID:27447676

A Shocking Surprise in Stephan's Quintet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2006-01-01

surprised not only by the turbulence of the gas, but by the incredible strength of the emission. The reason the molecular hydrogen emission is so powerful is not yet completely understood.

Stephan's Quintet is located 300 million light-years away in the Pegasus constellation.

This image is composed of three data sets: near-infrared light (blue) and visible light called H-alpha (green) from the Calar Alto Observatory in Spain, operated by the Max Planck Institute in Germany; and 8-micron infrared light (red) from Spitzer's infrared array camera.

When the GERM Hosts the Antidote: The Surprising New Birth of Israel's Anti-GERM Pre-K Policy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bialik, Gadi; Shefi, Noa

2017-01-01

Since the 1970s, Israel's educational policy has been undergoing a change generated by the neo-liberal agenda. In this light, it is not surprising that since the 1990s, Israel's education system has adopted the main characteristics of the Global Education Reform Movement (GERM). In light of this, the current research will focus on a newly born…

High-yield maize with large net energy yield and small global warming intensity

PubMed Central

Grassini, Patricio; Cassman, Kenneth G.

2012-01-01

Addressing concerns about future food supply and climate change requires management practices that maximize productivity per unit of arable land while reducing negative environmental impact. On-farm data were evaluated to assess energy balance and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of irrigated maize in Nebraska that received large nitrogen (N) fertilizer (183 kg of N⋅ha−1) and irrigation water inputs (272 mm or 2,720 m3 ha−1). Although energy inputs (30 GJ⋅ha−1) were larger than those reported for US maize systems in previous studies, irrigated maize in central Nebraska achieved higher grain and net energy yields (13.2 Mg⋅ha−1 and 159 GJ⋅ha−1, respectively) and lower GHG-emission intensity (231 kg of CO2e⋅Mg−1 of grain). Greater input-use efficiencies, especially for N fertilizer, were responsible for better performance of these irrigated systems, compared with much lower-yielding, mostly rainfed maize systems in previous studies. Large variation in energy inputs and GHG emissions across irrigated fields in the present study resulted from differences in applied irrigation water amount and imbalances between applied N inputs and crop N demand, indicating potential to further improve environmental performance through better management of these inputs. Observed variation in N-use efficiency, at any level of applied N inputs, suggests that an N-balance approach may be more appropriate for estimating soil N2O emissions than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change approach based on a fixed proportion of applied N. Negative correlation between GHG-emission intensity and net energy yield supports the proposition that achieving high yields, large positive energy balance, and low GHG emissions in intensive cropping systems are not conflicting goals. PMID:22232684

Predicting red meat yields in carcasses from beef-type and calf-fed Holstein steers using the United States Department of Agriculture calculated yield grade.

PubMed

Lawrence, T E; Elam, N A; Miller, M F; Brooks, J C; Hilton, G G; VanOverbeke, D L; McKeith, F K; Killefer, J; Montgomery, T H; Allen, D M; Griffin, D B; Delmore, R J; Nichols, W T; Streeter, M N; Yates, D A; Hutcheson, J P

2010-06-01

Analyses were conducted to evaluate the ability of the USDA yield grade equation to detect differences in subprimal yield of beef-type steers and calf-fed Holstein steers that had been fed zilpaterol hydrochloride (ZH; Intervet Inc., Millsboro, DE) as well as those that had not been fed ZH. Beef-type steer (n = 801) and calf-fed Holstein steer (n = 235) carcasses were fabricated into subprimal cuts and trim. Simple correlations between calculated yield grades and total red meat yields ranged from -0.56 to -0.62 for beef-type steers. Reliable correlations from calf-fed Holstein steers were unobtainable; the probability of a type I error met or exceeded 0.39. Linear models were developed for the beef-type steers to predict total red meat yield based on calculated USDA yield grade within each ZH duration. At an average calculated USDA yield grade of 2.9, beef-type steer carcasses that had not been fed ZH had an estimated 69.4% red meat yield, whereas those fed ZH had an estimated 70.7% red meat yield. These results indicate that feeding ZH increased red meat yield by 1.3% at a constant calculated yield grade. However, these data also suggest that the calculated USDA yield grade score is a poor and variable estimator (adjusted R(2) of 0.31 to 0.38) of total red meat yield of beef-type steer carcasses, regardless of ZH feeding. Moreover, no relationship existed (adjusted R(2) of 0.00 to 0.01) for calf-fed Holstein steer carcasses, suggesting the USDA yield grade is not a valid estimate of calf-fed Holstein red meat yield.

Controlled-rate freezer cryopreservation of highly concentrated peripheral blood mononuclear cells results in higher cell yields and superior autologous T-cell stimulation for dendritic cell-based immunotherapy.

PubMed

Buhl, Timo; Legler, Tobias J; Rosenberger, Albert; Schardt, Anke; Schön, Michael P; Haenssle, Holger A

2012-11-01

Availability of large quantities of functionally effective dendritic cells (DC) represents one of the major challenges for immunotherapeutic trials against infectious or malignant diseases. Low numbers or insufficient T-cell activation of DC may result in premature termination of treatment and unsatisfying immune responses in clinical trials. Based on the notion that cryopreservation of monocytes is superior to cryopreservation of immature or mature DC in terms of resulting DC quantity and immuno-stimulatory capacity, we aimed to establish an optimized protocol for the cryopreservation of highly concentrated peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) for DC-based immunotherapy. Cryopreserved cell preparations were analyzed regarding quantitative recovery, viability, phenotype, and functional properties. In contrast to standard isopropyl alcohol (IPA) freezing, PBMC cryopreservation in an automated controlled-rate freezer (CRF) with subsequent thawing and differentiation resulted in significantly higher cell yields of immature and mature DC. Immature DC yields and total protein content after using CRF were comparable with results obtained with freshly prepared PBMC and exceeded results of standard IPA freezing by approximately 50 %. While differentiation markers, allogeneic T-cell stimulation, viability, and cytokine profiles were similar to DC from standard freezing procedures, DC generated from CRF-cryopreserved PBMC induced a significantly higher antigen-specific IFN-γ release from autologous effector T cells. In summary, automated controlled-rate freezing of highly concentrated PBMC represents an improved method for increasing DC yields and autologous T-cell stimulation.

Yield performance and stability of CMS-based triticale hybrids.

PubMed

Mühleisen, Jonathan; Piepho, Hans-Peter; Maurer, Hans Peter; Reif, Jochen Christoph

2015-02-01

CMS-based triticale hybrids showed only marginal midparent heterosis for grain yield and lower dynamic yield stability compared to inbred lines. Hybrids of triticale (×Triticosecale Wittmack) are expected to possess outstanding yield performance and increased dynamic yield stability. The objectives of the present study were to (1) examine the optimum choice of the biometrical model to compare yield stability of hybrids versus lines, (2) investigate whether hybrids exhibit a more pronounced grain yield performance and yield stability, and (3) study optimal strategies to predict yield stability of hybrids. Thirteen female and seven male parental lines and their 91 factorial hybrids as well as 30 commercial lines were evaluated for grain yield in up to 20 environments. Hybrids were produced using a cytoplasmic male sterility (CMS)-inducing cytoplasm that originated from Triticumtimopheevii Zhuk. We found that the choice of the biometrical model can cause contrasting results and concluded that a group-by-environment interaction term should be added to the model when estimating stability variance of hybrids and lines. midparent heterosis for grain yield was on average 3 % with a range from -15.0 to 11.5 %. No hybrid outperformed the best inbred line. Hybrids had, on average, lower dynamic yield stability compared to the inbred lines. Grain yield performance of hybrids could be predicted based on midparent values and general combining ability (GCA)-predicted values. In contrast, stability variance of hybrids could be predicted only based on GCA-predicted values. We speculated that negative effects of the used CMS cytoplasm might be the reason for the low performance and yield stability of the hybrids. For this purpose a detailed study on the reasons for the drawback of the currently existing CMS system in triticale is urgently required comprising also the search of potentially alternative hybridization systems.

Effect of temperature shock and inventory surprises on natural gas and heating oil futures returns.

PubMed

Hu, John Wei-Shan; Hu, Yi-Chung; Lin, Chien-Yu

2014-01-01

The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of temperature shock on both near-month and far-month natural gas and heating oil futures returns by extending the weather and storage models of the previous study. Several notable findings from the empirical studies are presented. First, the expected temperature shock significantly and positively affects both the near-month and far-month natural gas and heating oil futures returns. Next, significant temperature shock has effect on both the conditional mean and volatility of natural gas and heating oil prices. The results indicate that expected inventory surprises significantly and negatively affects the far-month natural gas futures returns. Moreover, volatility of natural gas futures returns is higher on Thursdays and that of near-month heating oil futures returns is higher on Wednesdays than other days. Finally, it is found that storage announcement for natural gas significantly affects near-month and far-month natural gas futures returns. Furthermore, both natural gas and heating oil futures returns are affected more by the weighted average temperature reported by multiple weather reporting stations than that reported by a single weather reporting station.

Effect of Temperature Shock and Inventory Surprises on Natural Gas and Heating Oil Futures Returns

PubMed Central

Hu, John Wei-Shan; Lin, Chien-Yu

2014-01-01

The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of temperature shock on both near-month and far-month natural gas and heating oil futures returns by extending the weather and storage models of the previous study. Several notable findings from the empirical studies are presented. First, the expected temperature shock significantly and positively affects both the near-month and far-month natural gas and heating oil futures returns. Next, significant temperature shock has effect on both the conditional mean and volatility of natural gas and heating oil prices. The results indicate that expected inventory surprises significantly and negatively affects the far-month natural gas futures returns. Moreover, volatility of natural gas futures returns is higher on Thursdays and that of near-month heating oil futures returns is higher on Wednesdays than other days. Finally, it is found that storage announcement for natural gas significantly affects near-month and far-month natural gas futures returns. Furthermore, both natural gas and heating oil futures returns are affected more by the weighted average temperature reported by multiple weather reporting stations than that reported by a single weather reporting station. PMID:25133233

Covariance Matrix Evaluations for Independent Mass Fission Yields

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Terranova, N., E-mail: nicholas.terranova@unibo.it; Serot, O.; Archier, P.

2015-01-15

Recent needs for more accurate fission product yields include covariance information to allow improved uncertainty estimations of the parameters used by design codes. The aim of this work is to investigate the possibility to generate more reliable and complete uncertainty information on independent mass fission yields. Mass yields covariances are estimated through a convolution between the multi-Gaussian empirical model based on Brosa's fission modes, which describe the pre-neutron mass yields, and the average prompt neutron multiplicity curve. The covariance generation task has been approached using the Bayesian generalized least squared method through the CONRAD code. Preliminary results on mass yieldsmore » variance-covariance matrix will be presented and discussed from physical grounds in the case of {sup 235}U(n{sub th}, f) and {sup 239}Pu(n{sub th}, f) reactions.« less

Influence of yield surface curvature on the macroscopic yielding and ductile failure of isotropic porous plastic materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dæhli, Lars Edvard Bryhni; Morin, David; Børvik, Tore; Hopperstad, Odd Sture

2017-10-01

Numerical unit cell models of an approximative representative volume element for a porous ductile solid are utilized to investigate differences in the mechanical response between a quadratic and a non-quadratic matrix yield surface. A Hershey equivalent stress measure with two distinct values of the yield surface exponent is employed as the matrix description. Results from the unit cell calculations are further used to calibrate a heuristic extension of the Gurson model which incorporates effects of the third deviatoric stress invariant. An assessment of the porous plasticity model reveals its ability to describe the unit cell response to some extent, however underestimating the effect of the Lode parameter for the lower triaxiality ratios imposed in this study when compared to unit cell simulations. Ductile failure predictions by means of finite element simulations using a unit cell model that resembles an imperfection band are then conducted to examine how the non-quadratic matrix yield surface influences the failure strain as compared to the quadratic matrix yield surface. Further, strain localization predictions based on bifurcation analyses and imperfection band analyses are undertaken using the calibrated porous plasticity model. These simulations are then compared to the unit cell calculations in order to elucidate the differences between the various modelling strategies. The current study reveals that strain localization analyses using an imperfection band model and a spatially discretized unit cell are in reasonable agreement, while the bifurcation analyses predict higher strain levels at localization. Imperfection band analyses are finally used to calculate failure loci for the quadratic and the non-quadratic matrix yield surface under a wide range of loading conditions. The underlying matrix yield surface is demonstrated to have a pronounced influence on the onset of strain localization.

Xenon Sputter Yield Measurements for Ion Thruster Materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, John D.; Gardner, Michael M.; Johnson, Mark L.; Wilbur, Paul J.

2003-01-01

In this paper, we describe a technique that was used to measure total and differential sputter yields of materials important to high specific impulse ion thrusters. The heart of the technique is a quartz crystal monitor that is swept at constant radial distance from a small target region where a high current density xenon ion beam is aimed. Differential sputtering yields were generally measured over a full 180 deg arc in a plane that included the beam centerline and the normal vector to the target surface. Sputter yield results are presented for a xenon ion energy range from 0.5 to 10 keV and an angle of incidence range from 0 deg to 70 deg from the target surface normal direction for targets consisting of molybdenum, titanium, solid (Poco) graphite, and flexible graphite (grafoil). Total sputter yields are calculated using a simple integration procedure and comparisons are made to sputter yields obtained from the literature. In general, the agreement between the available data is good. As expected for heavy xenon ions, the differential and total sputter yields are found to be strong functions of angle of incidence. Significant under- and over-cosine behavior is observed at low- and high-ion energies, respectively. In addition, strong differences in differential yield behavior are observed between low-Z targets (C and Ti) and high-Z targets (Mo). Curve fits to the differential sputter yield data are provided. They should prove useful to analysts interested in predicting the erosion profiles of ion thruster components and determining where the erosion products re-deposit.

Dwarf Galaxy Gives Giant Surprise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

2005-01-01

galaxy by furious star formation or pulled out by a close encounter with another galaxy. "This gas disk is rotating quite peacefully around the galaxy," van Zee explained. That means, she said, that the gas around UGC 5288 most likely is pristine material that never has been "polluted" by the heavier elements produced in stars. What's surprising, said Martha Haynes, an astronomer at Cornell University in Ithaca, NY, is that the huge gas disk seems to be completely uninvolved in the small galaxy's star-formation processes. "You need the gas to make the stars, so we might have thought the two would be better correlated," Haynes said. "This means we really don't understand how the star-forming gas and the stars themselves are related," she added. In addition, Haynes said, it is exciting to find such a large reservoir of apparently unprocessed matter. "This object and others like it could be the targets for studying pristine material in the Universe," she said. Haynes also was amused to point out that a galaxy that looked "boring" to some in visible-light images showed such a remarkable feature when viewed with a radio telescope. "This shows that you can't judge an object by its appearance at only one wavelength -- what seems boring at one wavelength may be very exciting at another." The National Radio Astronomy Observatory is a facility of the National Science Foundation, operated under cooperative agreement by Associated Universities, Inc.

Efficient SRAM yield optimization with mixture surrogate modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhongjian, Jiang; Zuochang, Ye; Yan, Wang

2016-12-01

Largely repeated cells such as SRAM cells usually require extremely low failure-rate to ensure a moderate chi yield. Though fast Monte Carlo methods such as importance sampling and its variants can be used for yield estimation, they are still very expensive if one needs to perform optimization based on such estimations. Typically the process of yield calculation requires a lot of SPICE simulation. The circuit SPICE simulation analysis accounted for the largest proportion of time in the process yield calculation. In the paper, a new method is proposed to address this issue. The key idea is to establish an efficient mixture surrogate model. The surrogate model is based on the design variables and process variables. This model construction method is based on the SPICE simulation to get a certain amount of sample points, these points are trained for mixture surrogate model by the lasso algorithm. Experimental results show that the proposed model is able to calculate accurate yield successfully and it brings significant speed ups to the calculation of failure rate. Based on the model, we made a further accelerated algorithm to further enhance the speed of the yield calculation. It is suitable for high-dimensional process variables and multi-performance applications.

Earthquake prediction; new studies yield promising results

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, R.

1974-01-01

On Agust 3, 1973, a small earthquake (magnitude 2.5) occurred near Blue Mountain Lake in the Adirondack region of northern New York State. This seemingly unimportant event was of great significance, however, because it was predicted. Seismologsits at the Lamont-Doherty geologcal Observatory of Columbia University accurately foretold the time, place, and magnitude of the event. Their prediction was based on certain pre-earthquake processes that are best explained by a hypothesis known as "dilatancy," a concept that has injected new life and direction into the science of earthquake prediction. Although much mroe reserach must be accomplished before we can expect to predict potentially damaging earthquakes with any degree of consistency, results such as this indicate that we are on a promising road. 

Effects of Management Practices on Meloidogyne incognita and Snap Bean Yield.

PubMed

Smittle, D A; Johnson, A W

1982-01-01

Phenamiphos applied at 6.7 kg ai/ha through a solid set or a center pivot irrigation system with 28 mm of water effectively controlled root-knot nematodes, Meloidogyne incognita, and resulted in greater snap bean growth and yields irrespective of growing season, tillage method, or cover crop system. The percentage yield increases attributed to this method of M. incognita control over nontreated controls were 45% in the spring crop, and 90% and 409% in the fall crops following winter rye and fallow, respectively. Root galling was not affected by tillage systems or cover crop, but disk tillage resulted in over 50% reduction in bean yield compared with yields from the subsoil-bed tillage system.

One-at-a-time versus grouped presentation of mug book pictures: some surprising results.

PubMed

Stewart, H A; McAllister, H A

2001-12-01

Eyewitnesses to a simulated crime attempted to identify the perpetrator from a computerized mug book. The 208 mug book pictures were presented either 1 mug shot per page or in groups of 12 mug shots per page. Half of the mug books were arranged by similarity to the perpetrator as determined by a facial recognition algorithm, and half were randomly arranged. In contrast to past findings with photospreads, false-positive identifications were significantly higher using the one-at-a-time procedure than the grouped procedure. Results suggest that the best practice for mug books may be the use of groups of pictures per page rather than the one-at-a-time procedure long advocated by experts for use in lineups and photospreads.

Calculation of K-shell fluorescence yields for low-Z elements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nekkab, M.; Kahoul, A.; Deghfel, B.; Aylikci, N. Küp; Aylikçi, V.

2015-03-01

The analytical methods based on X-ray fluorescence are advantageous for practical applications in a variety of fields including atomic physics, X-ray fluorescence surface chemical analysis and medical research and so the accurate fluorescence yields (ωK) are required for these applications. In this contribution we report a new parameters for calculation of K-shell fluorescence yields (ωK) of elements in the range of 11≤Z≤30. The experimental data are interpolated by using the famous analytical function (ωk/(1 -ωk)) 1 /q (were q=3, 3.5 and 4) vs Z to deduce the empirical K-shell fluorescence yields. A comparison is made between the results of the procedures followed here and those theoretical and other semi-empirical fluorescence yield values. Reasonable agreement was typically obtained between our result and other works.

Climate change impacts on crop yield: evidence from China.

PubMed

Wei, Taoyuan; Cherry, Todd L; Glomrød, Solveig; Zhang, Tianyi

2014-11-15

When estimating climate change impact on crop yield, a typical assumption is constant elasticity of yield with respect to a climate variable even though the elasticity may be inconstant. After estimating both constant and inconstant elasticities with respect to temperature and precipitation based on provincial panel data in China 1980-2008, our results show that during that period, the temperature change contributes positively to total yield growth by 1.3% and 0.4% for wheat and rice, respectively, but negatively by 12% for maize. The impacts of precipitation change are marginal. We also compare our estimates with other studies and highlight the implications of the inconstant elasticities for crop yield, harvest and food security. We conclude that climate change impact on crop yield would not be an issue in China if positive impacts of other socio-economic factors continue in the future. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Specific Yield--Column drainage and centrifuge moisture content

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, A.I.; Prill, R.C.; Morris, D.A.

1963-01-01

The specific yield of a rock or soil, with respect to water, is the ratio of (1) the volume of water which, after being saturated, it will yield by gravity to (2) its own volume. Specific retention represents the water retained against gravity drainage. The specific yield and retention when added together are equal to the total interconnected porosity of the rock or soil. Because specific retention is more easily determined than specific yield, most methods for obtaining yield first require the determination of specific retention. Recognizing the great need for developing improved methods of determining the specific yield of water-bearing materials, the U.S. Geological Survey and the California Department of Water Resources initiated a cooperative investigation of this subject. The major objectives of this research are (1) to review pertinent literature on specific yield and related subjects, (2) to increase basic knowledge of specific yield and rate of drainage and to determine the most practical methods of obtaining them, (3) to compare and to attempt to correlate the principal laboratory and field methods now commonly used to obtain specific yield, and (4) to obtain improved estimates of specific yield of water-bearing deposits in California. An open-file report, 'Specific yield of porous media, an annotated bibliography,' by A. I. Johnson, D. A. Morris, and R. C. Prill, was released in 1960 in partial fulfillment of the first objective. This report describes the second phase of the specific-yield study by the U.S. Geological Survey Hydrologic Laboratory at Denver, Colo. Laboratory research on column drainage and centrifuge moisture equivalent, two methods for estimating specific retention of porous media, is summarized. In the column-drainage study, a wide variety of materials was packed into plastic columns of 1- to 8-inch diameter, wetted with Denver tap water, and drained under controlled conditions of temperature and humidity. The effects of cleaning the

On-line prediction of yield grade, longissimus muscle area, preliminary yield grade, adjusted preliminary yield grade, and marbling score using the MARC beef carcass image analysis system.

PubMed

Shackelford, S D; Wheeler, T L; Koohmaraie, M

2003-01-01

The present experiment was conducted to evaluate the ability of the U.S. Meat Animal Research Center's beef carcass image analysis system to predict calculated yield grade, longissimus muscle area, preliminary yield grade, adjusted preliminary yield grade, and marbling score under commercial beef processing conditions. In two commercial beef-processing facilities, image analysis was conducted on 800 carcasses on the beef-grading chain immediately after the conventional USDA beef quality and yield grades were applied. Carcasses were blocked by plant and observed calculated yield grade. The carcasses were then separated, with 400 carcasses assigned to a calibration data set that was used to develop regression equations, and the remaining 400 carcasses assigned to a prediction data set used to validate the regression equations. Prediction equations, which included image analysis variables and hot carcass weight, accounted for 90, 88, 90, 88, and 76% of the variation in calculated yield grade, longissimus muscle area, preliminary yield grade, adjusted preliminary yield grade, and marbling score, respectively, in the prediction data set. In comparison, the official USDA yield grade as applied by online graders accounted for 73% of the variation in calculated yield grade. The technology described herein could be used by the beef industry to more accurately determine beef yield grades; however, this system does not provide an accurate enough prediction of marbling score to be used without USDA grader interaction for USDA quality grading.

Fission yield calculation using toy model based on Monte Carlo simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jubaidah, Kurniadi, Rizal

2015-09-01

Toy model is a new approximation in predicting fission yield distribution. Toy model assumes nucleus as an elastic toy consist of marbles. The number of marbles represents the number of nucleons, A. This toy nucleus is able to imitate the real nucleus properties. In this research, the toy nucleons are only influenced by central force. A heavy toy nucleus induced by a toy nucleon will be split into two fragments. These two fission fragments are called fission yield. In this research, energy entanglement is neglected. Fission process in toy model is illustrated by two Gaussian curves intersecting each other. There are five Gaussian parameters used in this research. They are scission point of the two curves (Rc), mean of left curve (μL) and mean of right curve (μR), deviation of left curve (σL) and deviation of right curve (σR). The fission yields distribution is analyses based on Monte Carlo simulation. The result shows that variation in σ or µ can significanly move the average frequency of asymmetry fission yields. This also varies the range of fission yields distribution probability. In addition, variation in iteration coefficient only change the frequency of fission yields. Monte Carlo simulation for fission yield calculation using toy model successfully indicates the same tendency with experiment results, where average of light fission yield is in the range of 90yield is in about 135

Lumber grade-yields for factory-grade northern red oak sawlogs

Treesearch

James G. Schroeder; Leland F. Hanks

1967-01-01

A report on results of sawing 556 northern red oak sawlogs at four sawmills in West Virginia and Virginia, and the distribution of grades for the standard factory lumber produced. Tabular data on actual yield and curved grade-yield percentages.

[Contrast of Z-Pinch X-Ray Yield Measure Technique].

PubMed

Li, Mo; Wang, Liang-ping; Sheng, Liang; Lu, Yi

2015-03-01

Resistive bolometer and scintillant detection system are two mainly Z-pinch X-ray yield measure techniques which are based on different diagnostic principles. Contrasting the results from two methods can help with increasing precision of X-ray yield measurement. Experiments with different load material and shape were carried out on the "QiangGuang-I" facility. For Al wire arrays, X-ray yields measured by the two techniques were largely consistent. However, for insulating coating W wire arrays, X-ray yields taken from bolometer changed with load parameters while data from scintillant detection system hardly changed. Simulation and analysis draw conclusions as follows: (1) Scintillant detection system is much more sensitive to X-ray photons with low energy and its spectral response is wider than the resistive bolometer. Thus, results from the former method are always larger than the latter. (2) The responses of the two systems are both flat to Al plasma radiation. Thus, their results are consistent for Al wire array loads. (3) Radiation form planar W wire arrays is mainly composed of sub-keV soft X-ray. X-ray yields measured by the bolometer is supposed to be accurate because of the nickel foil can absorb almost all the soft X-ray. (4) By contrast, using planar W wire arrays, data from scintillant detection system hardly change with load parameters. A possible explanation is that while the distance between wires increases, plasma temperature at stagnation reduces and spectra moves toward the soft X-ray region. Scintillator is much more sensitive to the soft X-ray below 200 eV. Thus, although the total X-ray yield reduces with large diameter load, signal from the scintillant detection system is almost the same. (5) Both Techniques affected by electron beams produced by the loads.

Yield estimation of corn with multispectral data and the potential of using imaging spectrometers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bach, Heike

1997-05-01

In the frame of the special yield estimation, a regular procedure conducted for the European Union to more accurately estimate agricultural yield, a project was conducted for the state minister for Rural Environment, Food and Forestry of Baden-Wuerttemberg, Germany) to test remote sensing data with advanced yield formation models for accuracy and timelines of yield estimation of corn. The methodology employed uses field-based plant parameter estimation from atmospherically corrected multitemporal/multispectral LANDSAT-TM data. An agrometeorological plant-production-model is used for yield prediction. Based solely on 4 LANDSAT-derived estimates and daily meteorological data the grain yield of corn stands was determined for 1995. The modeled yield was compared with results independently gathered within the special yield estimation for 23 test fields in the Upper Rhine Valley. The agrement between LANDSAT-based estimates and Special Yield Estimation shows a relative error of 2.3 percent. The comparison of the results for single fields shows, that six weeks before harvest the grain yield of single corn fields was estimated with a mean relative accuracy of 13 percent using satellite information. The presented methodology can be transferred to other crops and geographical regions. For future applications hyperspectral sensors show great potential to further enhance the results or yield prediction with remote sensing.

Dimension scaling effects on the yield sensitivity of HEMT digital circuits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sarker, Jogendra C.; Purviance, John E.

1992-01-01

In our previous works, using a graphical tool, yield factor histograms, we studied the yield sensitivity of High Electron Mobility Transistors (HEMT) and HEMT circuit performance with the variation of process parameters. This work studies the scaling effects of process parameters on yield sensitivity of HEMT digital circuits. The results from two HEMT circuits are presented.

The results of an experimental indoor hydroponic Cannabis growing study, using the 'Screen of Green' (ScrOG) method-Yield, tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) and DNA analysis.

PubMed

Knight, Glenys; Hansen, Sean; Connor, Mark; Poulsen, Helen; McGovern, Catherine; Stacey, Janet

2010-10-10

The results of an indoor hydroponic Cannabis growth study are presented. It is intended that this work will be of assistance to those with an interest in determining an estimation of yield and value of Cannabis crops. Three cycles of six plants were grown over a period of 1 year in order to ascertain the potential yield of female flowering head material from such an operation. The cultivation methods used were selected to replicate typical indoor hydroponic Cannabis growing operations, such as are commonly encountered by the New Zealand Police. The plants were also tested to ascertain the percentage of the psychoactive chemical Δ-9 tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) present in the flowering head material, and were genetically profiled by STR analysis. Phenotypic observations are related to the data collected. The inexperience of the growers was evidenced by different problems encountered in each of the three cycles, each of which would be expected to negatively impact the yield and THC data obtained. These data are therefore considered to be conservative. The most successful cycle yielded an average of 881g (31.1oz) of dry, groomed female flowering head per plant, and over the whole study the 18 plants yielded a total of 12,360g (436.0oz), or an average of 687g (24.2oz) of dry head per plant. THC data shows significant intra-plant variation and also demonstrates inter-varietal variation. THC values for individual plants ranged from 4.3 to 25.2%. The findings of this study and a separate ESR research project illustrate that the potency of Cannabis grown in New Zealand has dramatically increased in recent years. DNA analysis distinguished distinct groups in general agreement with the phenotypic variation observed. One plant however, exhibiting a unique triallelic pattern at two of the five loci tested, while remaining phenotypically indistinguishable from three other plants within the same grow. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting yields from Appalachian red oak logs and lumber

Treesearch

Daniel E. Dunmire

1971-01-01

One utilization problem is in pinpointing how to efficiently and effectively recover usable parts from logs, bolts, and lumber. Yields, which are output divided by input, provide a key to managers who make processing decisions. Research results are applied to indicate yields of graded lumber and dimension stock from graded Appalachian red oak (group) logs. How to...

El Chichón's "surprise" eruption in 1982: lessons for reducing volcano risk

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tilling, R.I.

2009-01-01

Unfortunately, the eruptions came as an almost total surprise for scientists and government authorities, effectively precluding opportunities to implement timely mitigative countermeasures. During the months before eruption onset, fumarolic activity increased and inhabitants living close to the volcano felt occasional earthquakes, prompting the Chiapas government to request help from the Federal government. Both the Chiapas and Federal governmental actions were slow, and the requested assistance came after the volcano erupted. Perhaps the most important lesson learned from the disastrous outcome at El Chichón is that its decreased activity (29 March–2 April) should not have been assumed by the senior scientist on site—and the military authorities acting on his advice—to signal the end of eruption. While the 1982 eruptions caused a national tragedy, they also fostered multidisciplinary studies of eruptive phenomena, not only at El Chichón but also other explosive volcanoes in the world.

Receipt of Cancer Screening Services: Surprising Results for Some Rural Minorities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bennett, Kevin J.; Probst, Janice C.; Bellinger, Jessica D.

2012-01-01

Background: Evidence suggests that rural minority populations experience disparities in cancer screening, treatment, and outcomes. It is unknown how race/ethnicity and rurality intersect in these disparities. The purpose of this analysis is to examine the cancer screening rates among minorities in rural areas. Methods: We utilized the 2008…

Short time propagation of a singular wave function: Some surprising results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marchewka, A.; Granot, E.; Schuss, Z.

2007-08-01

The Schrödinger evolution of an initially singular wave function was investigated. First it was shown that a wide range of physical problems can be described by initially singular wave function. Then it was demonstrated that outside the support of the initial wave function the time evolution is governed to leading order by the values of the wave function and its derivatives at the singular points. Short-time universality appears where it depends only on a single parameter—the value at the singular point (not even on its derivatives). It was also demonstrated that the short-time evolution in the presence of an absorptive potential is different than in the presence of a nonabsorptive one. Therefore, this dynamics can be harnessed to the determination whether a potential is absorptive or not simply by measuring only the transmitted particles density.

Global Crop Yields, Climatic Trends and Technology Enhancement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najafi, E.; Devineni, N.; Khanbilvardi, R.; Kogan, F.

2016-12-01

During the last decades the global agricultural production has soared up and technology enhancement is still making positive contribution to yield growth. However, continuing population, water crisis, deforestation and climate change threaten the global food security. Attempts to predict food availability in the future around the world can be partly understood from the impact of changes to date. A new multilevel model for yield prediction at the country scale using climate covariates and technology trend is presented in this paper. The structural relationships between average yield and climate attributes as well as trends are estimated simultaneously. All countries are modeled in a single multilevel model with partial pooling and/or clustering to automatically group and reduce estimation uncertainties. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Geopotential height (GPH), historical CO2 level and time-trend as a relatively reliable approximation of technology measurement are used as predictors to estimate annual agricultural crop yields for each country from 1961 to 2007. Results show that these indicators can explain the variability in historical crop yields for most of the countries and the model performs well under out-of-sample verifications.

Real-time yield estimation based on deep learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahnemoonfar, Maryam; Sheppard, Clay

2017-05-01

Crop yield estimation is an important task in product management and marketing. Accurate yield prediction helps farmers to make better decision on cultivation practices, plant disease prevention, and the size of harvest labor force. The current practice of yield estimation based on the manual counting of fruits is very time consuming and expensive process and it is not practical for big fields. Robotic systems including Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) and Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGV), provide an efficient, cost-effective, flexible, and scalable solution for product management and yield prediction. Recently huge data has been gathered from agricultural field, however efficient analysis of those data is still a challenging task. Computer vision approaches currently face diffident challenges in automatic counting of fruits or flowers including occlusion caused by leaves, branches or other fruits, variance in natural illumination, and scale. In this paper a novel deep convolutional network algorithm was developed to facilitate the accurate yield prediction and automatic counting of fruits and vegetables on the images. Our method is robust to occlusion, shadow, uneven illumination and scale. Experimental results in comparison to the state-of-the art show the effectiveness of our algorithm.

Oldest Known Objects May Be Surprisingly Immature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

2008-04-01

Some of the oldest objects in the Universe may still have a long way to go, according to a new study using NASA’s Chandra X-ray Observatory. These new results indicate that globular clusters might be surprisingly less mature in their development than previously thought. Globular clusters, dense bunches of up to millions of stars found in all galaxies, are among the oldest known objects in the Universe, with most estimates of their ages ranging from 9 to 13 billions of years old. As such they contain some of the first stars to form in a galaxy and understanding their evolution is critical to understanding the evolution of galaxies. Animation The Evolution of a Globular Cluster "For many years, globular clusters have been used as wonderful natural laboratories to study the evolution and interaction of stars," said John Fregeau of Northwestern University, who conducted the study. "So, it’s exciting to discover something that may be new and fundamental about the way they evolve." Conventional wisdom is that globular clusters pass through three phases of evolution or development of their structure, corresponding to adolescence, middle age, and old age. These "ages" refer to the evolutionary state of the cluster, not the physical ages of the individual stars. People Who Read This Also Read... Milky Way's Super-efficient Particle Accelerators Caught in The Act Discovery of Most Recent Supernova in Our Galaxy Action Replay of Powerful Stellar Explosion Jet Power and Black Hole Assortment Revealed in New Chandra Image In the adolescent phase, the stars near the center of the cluster collapse inward. Middle age refers to a phase when the interactions of double stars near the center of the cluster prevents it from further collapse. Finally, old age describes when binaries in the center of the cluster are disrupted or ejected, and the center of the cluster collapses inwards. For years, it has been thought that most globular clusters are middle- aged with a few being toward

The genome of Pelobacter carbinolicus reveals surprising metabolic capabilities and physiological features

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aklujkar, Muktak; Haveman, Shelley; DiDonatoJr, Raymond

2012-01-01

Background: The bacterium Pelobacter carbinolicus is able to grow by fermentation, syntrophic hydrogen/formate transfer, or electron transfer to sulfur from short-chain alcohols, hydrogen or formate; it does not oxidize acetate and is not known to ferment any sugars or grow autotrophically. The genome of P. carbinolicus was sequenced in order to understand its metabolic capabilities and physiological features in comparison with its relatives, acetate-oxidizing Geobacter species. Results: Pathways were predicted for catabolism of known substrates: 2,3-butanediol, acetoin, glycerol, 1,2-ethanediol, ethanolamine, choline and ethanol. Multiple isozymes of 2,3-butanediol dehydrogenase, ATP synthase and [FeFe]-hydrogenase were differentiated and assigned roles according to theirmore » structural properties and genomic contexts. The absence of asparagine synthetase and the presence of a mutant tRNA for asparagine encoded among RNA-active enzymes suggest that P. carbinolicus may make asparaginyl-tRNA in a novel way. Catabolic glutamate dehydrogenases were discovered, implying that the tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle can function catabolically. A phosphotransferase system for uptake of sugars was discovered, along with enzymes that function in 2,3-butanediol production. Pyruvate: ferredoxin/flavodoxin oxidoreductase was identified as a potential bottleneck in both the supply of oxaloacetate for oxidation of acetate by the TCA cycle and the connection of glycolysis to production of ethanol. The P. carbinolicus genome was found to encode autotransporters and various appendages, including three proteins with similarity to the geopilin of electroconductive nanowires. Conclusions: Several surprising metabolic capabilities and physiological features were predicted from the genome of P. carbinolicus, suggesting that it is more versatile than anticipated.« less

Hot-boning enhances cook yield of boneless skinless chicken thighs.

PubMed

Zhuang, H; Bowker, B C; Buhr, R J; Brambila, G Sanchez

2014-06-01

Three experiments were conducted to evaluate the effects of postmortem deboning time on cook yield of boneless skinless chicken thighs. In experiment 1, chicken thigh meat was deboned at 0.75 (hot-bone), 2, and 24 h postmortem (PM) and trimmed to obtain mainly iliotibialis muscle. Samples were cooked directly from a frozen state. Cook yield of the muscle was significantly influenced by PM deboning time. Hot-boned thighs exhibited a 7% greater cook yield than the samples deboned at 24 h. In experiment 2, boneless skinless chicken thighs were deboned at 0.3, 2, and 24 h PM and cooked directly from a fresh, never-frozen state at 24 h PM. Cook yield of the hot-boned thighs was significantly higher than those of the 2 and 24 h deboned samples, which did not differ from each other. In experiment 3, whole legs (thigh + drumstick) were cut from the carcass backbone at 0.3 (hot-cut), 2, and 24 h PM. Thighs were separated from the legs (drumsticks) at either the same time the whole legs were removed from the carcasses or at 24 h PM. Intact thighs (bone in) were cooked fresh at 24 h PM. Color of fresh thigh muscles, cook yield, and Warner-Bratzler shear force of cooked samples were measured. Cook yield of the thighs cut from the backbone before chilling was significantly higher than those cut from the carcasses at 2 and 24 h PM, which did not differ from each other. The PM time at which intact thighs were separated from the leg (drumstick) did not influence cook yield. These results demonstrate that postmortem deboning time can significantly affect cook yield of boneless skinless chicken thigh products. Deboning chicken thighs after chilling reduces the cook yield. Differences in the cook yield of thighs may also result from the removal of whole chicken legs from the carcass backbone. Poultry Science Association Inc.

Detection of meteorological extreme effect on historical crop yield anomaly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, W.; Iizumi, T.; Nishimori, M.

2017-12-01

Meteorological extremes of temperature and precipitation are a critical issue in the global climate change, and some studies investigating how the extreme changes in accordance with the climate change are continuously reported. However, it is rarely understandable that the extremes affect crop yield worldwide as heatwave, coolwave, drought, and flood, albeit some local or national reports are available. Therefore, we globally investigated the extremes effects on the variability of historical yield of maize, rice, soy, and wheat with a standardized index and a historical yield anomaly. For the regression analysis, the standardized index is annually aggregated in the consideration of a crop calendar, and the historical yield is detrended with 5-year moving average. Throughout this investigation, we found that the relationship between the aggregated standardized index and the historical yield anomaly shows not merely positive correlation but also negative correlation in all crops in the globe. Namely, the extremes cause decrease of crop yield as a matter of course, but increase in some regions contrastingly. These results help us to quantify the extremes effect on historical crop yield anomaly.

Reed canarygrass yield improvement

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Reed canarygrass is well adapted to the northern USA. Eight cultivars and 72 accessions collected in rural landscapes from Iowa to New Hampshire were evaluated for yield. Accessions produced on average 7% higher biomass yield compared to existing cultivars. Naturalized populations of reed canarygras...

Linear unmixing of multidate hyperspectral imagery for crop yield estimation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In this paper, we have evaluated an unsupervised unmixing approach, vertex component analysis (VCA), for the application of crop yield estimation. The results show that abundance maps of the vegetation extracted by the approach are strongly correlated to the yield data (the correlation coefficients ...

Surprises from a Deep ASCA Spectrum of the Broad Absorption Line Quasar PHL 5200

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mathur, Smita; Matt, G.; Green, P. J.; Elvis, M.; Singh, K. P.

2002-01-01

We present a deep (approx. 85 ks) ASCA observation of the prototype broad absorption line quasar (BALQSO) PHL 5200. This is the best X-ray spectrum of a BALQSO yet. We find the following: (1) The source is not intrinsically X-ray weak. (2) The line-of-sight absorption is very strong, with N(sub H) = 5 x 10(exp 23)/sq cm. (3) The absorber does not cover the source completely; the covering fraction is approx. 90%. This is consistent with the large optical polarization observed in this source, implying multiple lines of sight. The most surprising result of this observation is that (4) the spectrum of this BALQSO is not exactly similar to other radio-quiet quasars. The hard X-ray spectrum of PHL 5200 is steep, with the power-law spectral index alpha approx. 1.5. This is similar to the steepest hard X-ray slopes observed so far. At low redshifts, such steep slopes are observed in narrow-line Seyfert 1 (NLS1) galaxies, believed to be accreting at a high Eddington rate. This observation strengthens the analogy between BALQSOs and NLS1 galaxies and supports the hypothesis that BALQSOs represent an early evolutionary state of quasars. It is well accepted that the orientation to the line of sight determines the appearance of a quasar: age seems to play a significant role as well.

Soil Texture and Cultivar Effects on Rice (Oryza sativa, L.) Grain Yield, Yield Components and Water Productivity in Three Water Regimes.

PubMed

Dou, Fugen; Soriano, Junel; Tabien, Rodante E; Chen, Kun

2016-01-01

The objective of this study was to determine the effects of water regime/soil condition (continuous flooding, saturated, and aerobic), cultivar ('Cocodrie' and 'Rondo'), and soil texture (clay and sandy loam) on rice grain yield, yield components and water productivity using a greenhouse trial. Rice grain yield was significantly affected by soil texture and the interaction between water regime and cultivar. Significantly higher yield was obtained in continuous flooding than in aerobic and saturated soil conditions but the latter treatments were comparable to each other. For Rondo, its grain yield has decreased with soil water regimes in the order of continuous flooding, saturated and aerobic treatments. The rice grain yield in clay soil was 46% higher than in sandy loam soil averaged across cultivar and water regime. Compared to aerobic condition, saturated and continuous flooding treatments had greater panicle numbers. In addition, panicle number in clay soil was 25% higher than in sandy loam soil. The spikelet number of Cocodrie was 29% greater than that of Rondo, indicating that rice cultivar had greater effect on spikelet number than soil type and water management. Water productivity was significantly affected by the interaction of water regime and cultivar. Compared to sandy loam soil, clay soil was 25% higher in water productivity. Our results indicated that cultivar selection and soil texture are important factors in deciding what water management option to practice.

Postpartum body condition score and results from the first test day milk as predictors of disease, fertility, yield, and culling in commercial dairy herds.

PubMed

Heuer, C; Schukken, Y H; Dobbelaar, P

1999-02-01

The study used field data from a regular herd health service to investigate the relationships between body condition scores or first test day milk data and disease incidence, milk yield, fertility, and culling. Path model analysis with adjustment for time at risk was applied to delineate the time sequence of events. Milk fever occurred more often in fat cows, and endometritis occurred between calving and 20 d of lactation more often in thin cows. Fat cows were less likely to conceive at first service than were cows in normal condition. Fat body condition postpartum, higher first test day milk yield, and a fat to protein ratio of > 1.5 increased body condition loss. Fat or thin condition or condition loss was not related to other lactation diseases, fertility parameters, milk yield, or culling. First test day milk yield was 1.3 kg higher after milk fever and was 7.1 kg lower after displaced abomasum. Higher first test day milk yield directly increased the risk of ovarian cyst and lameness, increased 100-d milk yield, and reduced the risk of culling and indirectly decreased reproductive performance. Cows with a fat to protein ratio of > 1.5 had higher risks for ketosis, displaced abomasum, ovarian cyst, lameness, and mastitis. Those cows produced more milk but showed poor reproductive performance. Given this type of herd health data, we concluded that the first test day milk yield and the fat to protein ratio were more reliable indicators of disease, fertility, and milk yield than was body condition score or loss of body condition score.

Fission yield calculation using toy model based on Monte Carlo simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jubaidah, E-mail: jubaidah@student.itb.ac.id; Physics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science – State University of Medan. Jl. Willem Iskandar Pasar V Medan Estate – North Sumatera, Indonesia 20221; Kurniadi, Rizal, E-mail: rijalk@fi.itb.ac.id

2015-09-30

Toy model is a new approximation in predicting fission yield distribution. Toy model assumes nucleus as an elastic toy consist of marbles. The number of marbles represents the number of nucleons, A. This toy nucleus is able to imitate the real nucleus properties. In this research, the toy nucleons are only influenced by central force. A heavy toy nucleus induced by a toy nucleon will be split into two fragments. These two fission fragments are called fission yield. In this research, energy entanglement is neglected. Fission process in toy model is illustrated by two Gaussian curves intersecting each other. Theremore » are five Gaussian parameters used in this research. They are scission point of the two curves (R{sub c}), mean of left curve (μ{sub L}) and mean of right curve (μ{sub R}), deviation of left curve (σ{sub L}) and deviation of right curve (σ{sub R}). The fission yields distribution is analyses based on Monte Carlo simulation. The result shows that variation in σ or µ can significanly move the average frequency of asymmetry fission yields. This also varies the range of fission yields distribution probability. In addition, variation in iteration coefficient only change the frequency of fission yields. Monte Carlo simulation for fission yield calculation using toy model successfully indicates the same tendency with experiment results, where average of light fission yield is in the range of 90« less

Comparison of statistical models for analyzing wheat yield time series.

PubMed

Michel, Lucie; Makowski, David

2013-01-01

The world's population is predicted to exceed nine billion by 2050 and there is increasing concern about the capability of agriculture to feed such a large population. Foresight studies on food security are frequently based on crop yield trends estimated from yield time series provided by national and regional statistical agencies. Various types of statistical models have been proposed for the analysis of yield time series, but the predictive performances of these models have not yet been evaluated in detail. In this study, we present eight statistical models for analyzing yield time series and compare their ability to predict wheat yield at the national and regional scales, using data provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and by the French Ministry of Agriculture. The Holt-Winters and dynamic linear models performed equally well, giving the most accurate predictions of wheat yield. However, dynamic linear models have two advantages over Holt-Winters models: they can be used to reconstruct past yield trends retrospectively and to analyze uncertainty. The results obtained with dynamic linear models indicated a stagnation of wheat yields in many countries, but the estimated rate of increase of wheat yield remained above 0.06 t ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ in several countries in Europe, Asia, Africa and America, and the estimated values were highly uncertain for several major wheat producing countries. The rate of yield increase differed considerably between French regions, suggesting that efforts to identify the main causes of yield stagnation should focus on a subnational scale.

Comparison of Statistical Models for Analyzing Wheat Yield Time Series

PubMed Central

Michel, Lucie; Makowski, David

2013-01-01

The world's population is predicted to exceed nine billion by 2050 and there is increasing concern about the capability of agriculture to feed such a large population. Foresight studies on food security are frequently based on crop yield trends estimated from yield time series provided by national and regional statistical agencies. Various types of statistical models have been proposed for the analysis of yield time series, but the predictive performances of these models have not yet been evaluated in detail. In this study, we present eight statistical models for analyzing yield time series and compare their ability to predict wheat yield at the national and regional scales, using data provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and by the French Ministry of Agriculture. The Holt-Winters and dynamic linear models performed equally well, giving the most accurate predictions of wheat yield. However, dynamic linear models have two advantages over Holt-Winters models: they can be used to reconstruct past yield trends retrospectively and to analyze uncertainty. The results obtained with dynamic linear models indicated a stagnation of wheat yields in many countries, but the estimated rate of increase of wheat yield remained above 0.06 t ha−1 year−1 in several countries in Europe, Asia, Africa and America, and the estimated values were highly uncertain for several major wheat producing countries. The rate of yield increase differed considerably between French regions, suggesting that efforts to identify the main causes of yield stagnation should focus on a subnational scale. PMID:24205280

[Study on High-yield Cultivation Measures for Arctii Fructus].

PubMed

Liu, Shi-yong; Jiang, Xiao-bo; Wang, Tao; Sun, Ji-ye; Hu, Shang-qin; Zhang, Li

2015-02-01

To find out the high yield cultivation measures for Arctii Fructus. Completely randomized block experiment design method was used in the field planting, to analyze the effect of different cultivation way on agronomic characters, phenological phase,quality and quantity of Arctii Fructus. Arctium lappa planted on August 28 had the best results of plant height, thousand seeds weight and yield. The highest yield of Arctii Fructus was got at the density of 1,482 plants/667 m2. Arctiin content was in an increase trend with the planting time delay and planting density increasing. The plant height, thousand seeds weight, yield and arctiin content by split application of fertilizer were significantly higher than that by one-time fertilization. Compared with open field Arctium lappa, plant height, yield, arctiin content and relative water content of plastic film mulching Arctium lappa was higher by 7.74%, 10.87%, 6.38% and 24.20%, respectively. In the topping Arctium lappa, the yield was increased by 11.09%, with 39. 89% less branching number. Early planting time and topping shortened the growth cycle of Arctium lappa plant. The high-yield cultivation measures of Arctii Fructus are: around August 28 to sowing, planting density of 1 482 plants/667 m2, split application of fertilizer for four times, covering film on surface of the soil and topping in bolting.

Analysis of the trade-off between high crop yield and low yield instability at the global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben-Ari, Tamara; Makowski, David

2016-10-01

Yield dynamics of major crops species vary remarkably among continents. Worldwide distribution of cropland influences both the expected levels and the interannual variability of global yields. An expansion of cultivated land in the most productive areas could theoretically increase global production, but also increase global yield instability if the most productive regions are characterized by high interannual yield variability. In this letter, we use portfolio analysis to quantify the tradeoff between the expected values and the interannual variance of global yield. We compute optimal frontiers for four crop species i.e., maize, rice, soybean and wheat and show how the distribution of cropland among large world regions can be optimized to either increase expected global crop production or decrease its interannual variability. We also show that a preferential allocation of cropland in the most productive regions can increase global expected yield at the expense of yield stability. Theoretically, optimizing the distribution of a small fraction of total cultivated areas can help find a good compromise between low instability and high crop yields at the global scale.

Plausible rice yield losses under future climate warming.

PubMed

Zhao, Chuang; Piao, Shilong; Wang, Xuhui; Huang, Yao; Ciais, Philippe; Elliott, Joshua; Huang, Mengtian; Janssens, Ivan A; Li, Tao; Lian, Xu; Liu, Yongwen; Müller, Christoph; Peng, Shushi; Wang, Tao; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Peñuelas, Josep

2016-12-19

Rice is the staple food for more than 50% of the world's population 1-3 . Reliable prediction of changes in rice yield is thus central for maintaining global food security. This is an extraordinary challenge. Here, we compare the sensitivity of rice yield to temperature increase derived from field warming experiments and three modelling approaches: statistical models, local crop models and global gridded crop models. Field warming experiments produce a substantial rice yield loss under warming, with an average temperature sensitivity of -5.2 ± 1.4% K -1 . Local crop models give a similar sensitivity (-6.3 ± 0.4% K -1 ), but statistical and global gridded crop models both suggest less negative impacts of warming on yields (-0.8 ± 0.3% and -2.4 ± 3.7% K -1 , respectively). Using data from field warming experiments, we further propose a conditional probability approach to constrain the large range of global gridded crop model results for the future yield changes in response to warming by the end of the century (from -1.3% to -9.3% K -1 ). The constraint implies a more negative response to warming (-8.3 ± 1.4% K -1 ) and reduces the spread of the model ensemble by 33%. This yield reduction exceeds that estimated by the International Food Policy Research Institute assessment (-4.2 to -6.4% K -1 ) (ref. 4). Our study suggests that without CO 2 fertilization, effective adaptation and genetic improvement, severe rice yield losses are plausible under intensive climate warming scenarios.

Strategy For Yield Control And Enhancement In VLSI Wafer Manufacturing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neilson, B.; Rickey, D.; Bane, R. P.

1988-01-01

In most fully utilized integrated circuit (IC) production facilities, profit is very closely linked with yield. In even the most controlled manufacturing environments, defects due to foreign material are a still major contributor to yield loss. Ideally, an IC manufacturer will have ample engineering resources to address any problem that arises. In the real world, staffing limitations require that some tasks must be left undone and potential benefits left unrealized. Therefore, it is important to prioritize problems in a manner that will give the maximum benefit to the manufacturer. When offered a smorgasbord of problems to solve, most people (engineers included) will start with what is most interesting or the most comfortable to work on. By providing a system that accurately predicts the impact of a wide variety of defect types, a rational method of prioritizing engineering effort can be made. To that effect, a program was developed to determine and rank the major yield detractors in a mixed analog/digital FET manufacturing line. The two classical methods of determining yield detractors are chip failure analysis and defect monitoring on drop in test die. Both of these methods have short comings: 1) Chip failure analysis is painstaking and very time consuming. As a result, the sample size is very small. 2) Drop in test die are usually designed for device parametric analysis rather than defect analysis. To provide enough wafer real estate to do meaningful defect analysis would render the wafer worthless for production. To avoid these problems, a defect monitor was designed that provided enough area to detect defects at the same rate or better than the NMOS product die whose yield was to be optimized. The defect monitor was comprehensive and electrically testable using such equipment as the Prometrix LM25 and other digital testers. This enabled the quick accumulation of data which could be handled statistically and mapped individually. By scaling the defect densities

Accelerating yield ramp through design and manufacturing collaboration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarma, Robin C.; Dai, Huixiong; Smayling, Michael C.; Duane, Michael P.

2004-12-01

Ramping an integrated circuit from first silicon bring-up to production yield levels is a challenge for all semiconductor products on the path to profitable market entry. Two approaches to accelerating yield ramp are presented. The first is the use of laser mask writers for fast throughput, high yield, and cost effective pattern transfer. The second is the use of electrical test to find a defect and identify the physical region to probe in failure analysis that is most likely to uncover the root cause. This provides feedback to the design team on modifications to make to the design to avoid the yield issue in a future tape-out revision. Additionally, the process parameter responsible for the root cause of the defect is forward annotated through the design, mask and wafer coordinate systems so it can be monitored in-line on subsequent lots of the manufacturing run. This results in an improved recipe for the manufacturing equipment to potentially prevent the recurrence of the defect and raise yield levels on the following material. The test diagnostics approach is enabled by the seamless traceability of a feature across the design, photomask and wafer, made possible by a common data model for design, mask pattern generation and wafer fabrication.

Genomic architecture of heterosis for yield traits in rice.

PubMed

Huang, Xuehui; Yang, Shihua; Gong, Junyi; Zhao, Qiang; Feng, Qi; Zhan, Qilin; Zhao, Yan; Li, Wenjun; Cheng, Benyi; Xia, Junhui; Chen, Neng; Huang, Tao; Zhang, Lei; Fan, Danlin; Chen, Jiaying; Zhou, Congcong; Lu, Yiqi; Weng, Qijun; Han, Bin

2016-09-29

Increasing grain yield is a long-term goal in crop breeding to meet the demand for global food security. Heterosis, when a hybrid shows higher performance for a trait than both parents, offers an important strategy for crop breeding. To examine the genetic basis of heterosis for yield in rice, here we generate, sequence and record the phenotypes of 10,074 F 2 lines from 17 representative hybrid rice crosses. We classify modern hybrid rice varieties into three groups, representing different hybrid breeding systems. Although we do not find any heterosis-associated loci shared across all lines, within each group, a small number of genomic loci from female parents explain a large proportion of the yield advantage of hybrids over their male parents. For some of these loci, we find support for partial dominance of heterozygous locus for yield-related traits and better-parent heterosis for overall performance when all of the grain-yield traits are considered together. These results inform on the genomic architecture of heterosis and rice hybrid breeding.

Identification of saline soils with multi-year remote sensing of crop yields

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lobell, D; Ortiz-Monasterio, I; Gurrola, F C

2006-10-17

Soil salinity is an important constraint to agricultural sustainability, but accurate information on its variation across agricultural regions or its impact on regional crop productivity remains sparse. We evaluated the relationships between remotely sensed wheat yields and salinity in an irrigation district in the Colorado River Delta Region. The goals of this study were to (1) document the relative importance of salinity as a constraint to regional wheat production and (2) develop techniques to accurately identify saline fields. Estimates of wheat yield from six years of Landsat data agreed well with ground-based records on individual fields (R{sup 2} = 0.65).more » Salinity measurements on 122 randomly selected fields revealed that average 0-60 cm salinity levels > 4 dS m{sup -1} reduced wheat yields, but the relative scarcity of such fields resulted in less than 1% regional yield loss attributable to salinity. Moreover, low yield was not a reliable indicator of high salinity, because many other factors contributed to yield variability in individual years. However, temporal analysis of yield images showed a significant fraction of fields exhibited consistently low yields over the six year period. A subsequent survey of 60 additional fields, half of which were consistently low yielding, revealed that this targeted subset had significantly higher salinity at 30-60 cm depth than the control group (p = 0.02). These results suggest that high subsurface salinity is associated with consistently low yields in this region, and that multi-year yield maps derived from remote sensing therefore provide an opportunity to map salinity across agricultural regions.« less

Study of water stress effects in different growth stages on yield and yield components of different rice (Oryza sativa L.) cultivars.

PubMed

Sarvestani, Zinolabedin Tahmasebi; Pirdashti, Hemmatollah; Sanavy, Seyed Ali Mohammad Modarres; Balouchi, Hamidreza

2008-05-15

A field experiment was conducted during 2001-2003 to evaluate the effect of water stress on the yield and yield components of four rice cultivars commonly grown in Mazandaran province, Iran. In northern Iran irrigated lowland rice usually experiences water deficit during the growing season include of land preparation time, planting, tillering stage, flowering and grain filing period. Recently drought affected 20 of 28 provinces in Iran; with the southeastern, central and eastern parts of the country being most severely affected. The local and improved cultivars used were Tarom, Khazar, Fajr and Nemat. The different water stress conditions were water stress during vegetative, flowering and grain filling stages and well watered was the control. Water stress at vegetative stage significantly reduced plant height of all cultivars. Water stress at flowering stage had a greater grain yield reduction than water stress at other times. The reduction of grain yield largely resulted from the reduction in fertile panicle and filled grain percentage. Water deficit during vegetative, flowering and grain filling stages reduced mean grain yield by 21, 50 and 21% on average in comparison to control respectively. The yield advantage of two semidwarf varieties, Fajr and Nemat, were not maintained under drought stress. Total biomass, harvest index, plant height, filled grain, unfilled grain and 1000 grain weight were reduced under water stress in all cultivars. Water stress at vegetative stage effectively reduced total biomass due to decrease of photosynthesis rate and dry matter accumulation.

Surprises from the spins: astrophysics and relativity with detections of spinning black-hole mergers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerosa, Davide

2018-03-01

Measurements of black-hole spins are of crucial importance to fulfill the promise of gravitational-wave astronomy. On the astrophysics side, spins are perhaps the cleanest indicator of black-hole evolutionary processes, thus providing a preferred way to discriminate how LIGO's black holes form. On the relativity side, spins are responsible for peculiar dynamical phenomena (from precessional modulations in the long inspiral to gravitational-wave recoils at merger) which encode precious information on the underlying astrophysical processes. I present some examples to explore this deep and fascinating interplay between spin dynamics (relativity) and environmental effects (astrophysics). Black-hole spins indeed hide remarkable surprises on both fronts: morphologies, resonances, constraints on supernova kicks, multiple merger generations and more... These findings were presented at 12th Edoardo Amaldi Conference on Gravitational Waves, held on July 9-14, 2017 in Pasadena, CA, USA.

Yield model development project implementation plan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ambroziak, R. A.

1982-01-01

Tasks remaining to be completed are summarized for the following major project elements: (1) evaluation of crop yield models; (2) crop yield model research and development; (3) data acquisition processing, and storage; (4) related yield research: defining spectral and/or remote sensing data requirements; developing input for driving and testing crop growth/yield models; real time testing of wheat plant process models) and (5) project management and support.

Yield modeling of acoustic charge transport transversal filters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kenney, J. S.; May, G. S.; Hunt, W. D.

1995-01-01

This paper presents a yield model for acoustic charge transport transversal filters. This model differs from previous IC yield models in that it does not assume that individual failures of the nondestructive sensing taps necessarily cause a device failure. A redundancy in the number of taps included in the design is explained. Poisson statistics are used to describe the tap failures, weighted over a uniform defect density distribution. A representative design example is presented. The minimum number of taps needed to realize the filter is calculated, and tap weights for various numbers of redundant taps are calculated. The critical area for device failure is calculated for each level of redundancy. Yield is predicted for a range of defect densities and redundancies. To verify the model, a Monte Carlo simulation is performed on an equivalent circuit model of the device. The results of the yield model are then compared to the Monte Carlo simulation. Better than 95% agreement was obtained for the Poisson model with redundant taps ranging from 30% to 150% over the minimum.

Weather-based forecasts of California crop yields

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lobell, D B; Cahill, K N; Field, C B

2005-09-26

Crop yield forecasts provide useful information to a range of users. Yields for several crops in California are currently forecast based on field surveys and farmer interviews, while for many crops official forecasts do not exist. As broad-scale crop yields are largely dependent on weather, measurements from existing meteorological stations have the potential to provide a reliable, timely, and cost-effective means to anticipate crop yields. We developed weather-based models of state-wide yields for 12 major California crops (wine grapes, lettuce, almonds, strawberries, table grapes, hay, oranges, cotton, tomatoes, walnuts, avocados, and pistachios), and tested their accuracy using cross-validation over themore » 1980-2003 period. Many crops were forecast with high accuracy, as judged by the percent of yield variation explained by the forecast, the number of yields with correctly predicted direction of yield change, or the number of yields with correctly predicted extreme yields. The most successfully modeled crop was almonds, with 81% of yield variance captured by the forecast. Predictions for most crops relied on weather measurements well before harvest time, allowing for lead times that were longer than existing procedures in many cases.« less

Shape Matters: Intravital Microscopy Reveals Surprising Geometrical Dependence for Nanoparticles in Tumor Models of Extravasation

PubMed Central

Smith, Bryan Ronain; Kempen, Paul; Bouley, Donna; Xu, Alexander; Liu, Zhuang; Melosh, Nicholas; Dai, Hongjie; Sinclair, Robert; Gambhir, Sanjiv Sam

2012-01-01

Delivery is one of the most critical obstacles confronting nanoparticle use in cancer diagnosis and therapy. For most oncological applications, nanoparticles must extravasate in order to reach tumor cells and perform their designated task. However, little understanding exists regarding the effect of nanoparticle shape on extravasation. Herein we use real-time intravital microscopic imaging to meticulously examine how two different nanoparticles behave across three different murine tumor models. The study quantitatively demonstrates that high-aspect ratio single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWNTs) display extravasational behavior surprisingly different from, and counterintuitive to, spherical nanoparticles although the nanoparticles have similar surface coatings, area, and charge. This work quantitatively indicates that nanoscale extravasational competence is highly dependent on nanoparticle geometry and is heterogeneous. PMID:22650417

Relationship between compatibilizer and yield strength of PLA/PP Blend

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jariyakulsith, Pattanun; Puajindanetr, Somchai

2018-01-01

The aim of this research is to study the relationship between compatibilizer and yield strength of polylactic acid (PLA) and polypropylene (PP) blend. The PLA is blended with PP (PLA/PP) at the ratios of 70/30, 50/50 and 30/70. In addition, (1) polypropylene grafted maleic anhydride (PP-g-MAH) as a compatibilizer at 0.3 and 0.7 part per hundred of PLA/PP resin (phr) and (2) dicumyl peroxide (DCP) being an initiator at 0.03 and 0.07 phr are added in each composition. Yield strength is characterized to study the interaction between compatibilizer, initiator and yield strength by using experimental design of multilevel full factorial. The results show that (1) the yield strength of PLA/PP blend are increased after addition of compatibilizer. Because the adding of PP-g-MAH and DCP resulted in improving compatibility between PLA and PP. (2) there are interaction between PP-g-MAH and DCP that have affected the final properties of PLA/PP blend. The highest yield strength of 27.68 MPa is provided at the ratio of 70/30 blend by using the 0.3 phr of PP-g-MAH and 0.03 phr of DCP. Linear regression model is fitted and follow the assumptions of normal distribution.

Flood-tolerant rice reduces yield variability and raises expected yield, differentially benefitting socially disadvantaged groups

PubMed Central

Dar, Manzoor H.; de Janvry, Alain; Emerick, Kyle; Raitzer, David; Sadoulet, Elisabeth

2013-01-01

Approximately 30% of the cultivated rice area in India is prone to crop damage from prolonged flooding. We use a randomized field experiment in 128 villages of Orissa India to show that Swarna-Sub1, a recently released submergence-tolerant rice variety, has significant positive impacts on rice yield when fields are submerged for 7 to 14 days with no yield penalty without flooding. We estimate that Swarna-Sub1 offers an approximate 45% increase in yields over the current popular variety when fields are submerged for 10 days. We show additionally that low-lying areas prone to flooding tend to be more heavily occupied by people belonging to lower caste social groups. Thus, a policy relevant implication of our findings is that flood-tolerant rice can deliver both efficiency gains, through reduced yield variability and higher expected yield, and equity gains in disproportionately benefiting the most marginal group of farmers. PMID:24263095

Riparian vegetation and water yield: A synthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salemi, Luiz Felippe; Groppo, Juliano Daniel; Trevisan, Rodrigo; Marcos de Moraes, Jorge; de Paula Lima, Walter; Martinelli, Luiz Antonio

2012-08-01

SummaryForested riparian zones perform numerous ecosystem functions, including the following: storing and fixing carbon; serving as wildlife habitats and ecological corridors; stabilizing streambanks; providing shade, organic matter, and food for streams and their biota; retaining sediments and filtering chemicals applied on cultivated/agricultural sites on upslope regions of the catchments. In this paper, we report a synthesis of a different feature of this type of vegetation, which is its effect on water yield. By synthesizing results from studies that used (i) the nested catchment and (ii) the paired catchment approaches, we show that riparian forests decrease water yield on a daily to annual basis. In terms of the treated area increases on average were 1.32 ± 0.85 mm day-1 and 483 ± 309 mm yr-1, respectively; n = 9. Similarly, riparian forest plantation or regeneration promoted reduced water yield (on average 1.25 ± 0.34 mm day-1 and 456 ± 125 mm yr-1 on daily and annual basis, respectively, when prorated to the catchment area subjected to treatment; n = 5). Although there are substantially fewer paired catchment studies assessing the effect of this vegetation type compared to classical paired catchment studies that manipulate the entire vegetation of small catchments, our results indicate the same trend. Despite the occurrence of many current restoration programs, measurements of the effect on water yield under natural forest restoration conditions are still lacking. We hope that presenting these gaps will encourage the scientific community to enhance the number of observations in these situations as well as produce more data from tropical regions.

Crop Diversity for Yield Increase

PubMed Central

Li, Chengyun; He, Xiahong; Zhu, Shusheng; Zhou, Huiping; Wang, Yunyue; Li, Yan; Yang, Jing; Fan, Jinxiang; Yang, Jincheng; Wang, Guibin; Long, Yunfu; Xu, Jiayou; Tang, Yongsheng; Zhao, Gaohui; Yang, Jianrong; Liu, Lin; Sun, Yan; Xie, Yong; Wang, Haining; Zhu, Youyong

2009-01-01

Traditional farming practices suggest that cultivation of a mixture of crop species in the same field through temporal and spatial management may be advantageous in boosting yields and preventing disease, but evidence from large-scale field testing is limited. Increasing crop diversity through intercropping addresses the problem of increasing land utilization and crop productivity. In collaboration with farmers and extension personnel, we tested intercropping of tobacco, maize, sugarcane, potato, wheat and broad bean – either by relay cropping or by mixing crop species based on differences in their heights, and practiced these patterns on 15,302 hectares in ten counties in Yunnan Province, China. The results of observation plots within these areas showed that some combinations increased crop yields for the same season between 33.2 and 84.7% and reached a land equivalent ratio (LER) of between 1.31 and 1.84. This approach can be easily applied in developing countries, which is crucial in face of dwindling arable land and increasing food demand. PMID:19956624

Diagnostic Yield of Endobronchial Ultrasound-Guided Transbronchial Needle Aspiration

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background: New transbronchial needle aspiration (TBNA) technologies have been developed, but their clinical effectiveness and determinants of diagnostic yield have not been quantified. Prospective data are needed to determine risk-adjusted diagnostic yield. Methods: We prospectively enrolled patients undergoing TBNA of mediastinal lymph nodes in the American College of Chest Physicians Quality Improvement Registry, Evaluation, and Education (AQuIRE) multicenter database and recorded clinical, procedural, and provider information. All clinical decisions, including type of TBNA used (conventional vs endobronchial ultrasound-guided), were made by the attending bronchoscopist. The primary outcome was obtaining a specific diagnosis. Results: We enrolled 891 patients at six hospitals. Most procedures (95%) were performed with ultrasound guidance. A specific diagnosis was made in 447 cases. Unadjusted diagnostic yields were 37% to 54% for different hospitals, with significant between-hospital heterogeneity (P = .0001). Diagnostic yield was associated with annual hospital TBNA volume (OR, 1.003; 95% CI, 1.000-1.006; P = .037), smoking (OR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.02-2.34; P = .042), biopsy of more than two sites (OR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.38-0.85; P = .015), lymph node size (reference > 1-2 cm, ≤ 1 cm: OR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.34-0.77; P = .003; > 2-3 cm: OR, 2.49; 95% CI, 1.61-3.85; P < .001; and > 3 cm: OR, 3.61; 95% CI, 2.17-6.00; P < .001), and positive PET scan (OR, 3.12; 95% CI, 1.39-7.01; P = .018). Biopsy was performed on more and smaller nodes at high-volume hospitals (P < .0001). Conclusions: To our knowledge, this is the first bronchoscopy study of risk-adjusted diagnostic yields on a hospital-level basis. High-volume hospitals were associated with high diagnostic yields. This study also demonstrates the value of procedural registries as a quality improvement tool. A larger number and variety of participating hospitals is needed to verify these results and to further

Z{gamma}{gamma}{gamma} {yields} 0 Processes in SANC

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bardin, D. Yu., E-mail: bardin@nu.jinr.ru; Kalinovskaya, L. V., E-mail: kalinov@nu.jinr.ru; Uglov, E. D., E-mail: corner@nu.jinr.ru

2013-11-15

We describe the analytic and numerical evaluation of the {gamma}{gamma} {yields} {gamma}Z process cross section and the Z {yields} {gamma}{gamma}{gamma} decay rate within the SANC system multi-channel approach at the one-loop accuracy level with all masses taken into account. The corresponding package for numeric calculations is presented. For checking of the results' correctness we make a comparison with the other independent calculations.

Hillslope, river, and Mountain: some surprises in Landscape evolution (Ralph Alger Bagnold Medal Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tucker, G. E.

2012-04-01

Geomorphology, like the rest of geoscience, has always had two major themes: a quest to understand the earth's history and 'products' - its landscapes and seascapes - and, in parallel, a quest to understand its formative processes. This dualism is manifest in the remarkable career of R. A. Bagnold, who was inspired by landforms such as dunes, and dedicated to understanding the physical processes that shaped them. His legacy inspires us to emulate two principles at the heart of his contributions: the benefits of rooting geomorphic theory in basic physics, and the importance of understanding geomorphic systems in terms of simple equations framed around energy or force. Today, following Bagnold's footsteps, the earth-surface process community is engaged in a quest to build, test, and refine an ever-improving body of theory to describe our planet's surface and its evolution. In this lecture, I review a small sample of some of the fruits of that quest, emphasizing the value of surprises encountered along the way. The first example involves models of long-term river incision into bedrock. When the community began to grapple with how to represent this process mathematically, several different ideas emerged. Some were based on the assumption that sediment transport is the limiting factor; others assumed that hydraulic stress on rock is the key, while still others treated rivers as first-order 'reactors.' Thanks in part to advances in digital topography and numerical computing, the predictions of these models can be tested using natural-experiment case studies. Examples from the King Range, USA, the Central Apennines, Italy, and the fold-thrust belt of Taiwan, illustrate that independent knowledge of history and/or tectonics makes it possible to quantify how the rivers have responded to external forcing. Some interesting surprises emerge, such as: that the relief-uplift relationship can be highly nonlinear in a steady-state landscape because of grain-entrainment thresholds

Wildlife-friendly farming increases crop yield: evidence for ecological intensification.

PubMed

Pywell, Richard F; Heard, Matthew S; Woodcock, Ben A; Hinsley, Shelley; Ridding, Lucy; Nowakowski, Marek; Bullock, James M

2015-10-07

Ecological intensification has been promoted as a means to achieve environmentally sustainable increases in crop yields by enhancing ecosystem functions that regulate and support production. There is, however, little direct evidence of yield benefits from ecological intensification on commercial farms growing globally important foodstuffs (grains, oilseeds and pulses). We replicated two treatments removing 3 or 8% of land at the field edge from production to create wildlife habitat in 50-60 ha patches over a 900 ha commercial arable farm in central England, and compared these to a business as usual control (no land removed). In the control fields, crop yields were reduced by as much as 38% at the field edge. Habitat creation in these lower yielding areas led to increased yield in the cropped areas of the fields, and this positive effect became more pronounced over 6 years. As a consequence, yields at the field scale were maintained--and, indeed, enhanced for some crops--despite the loss of cropland for habitat creation. These results suggested that over a 5-year crop rotation, there would be no adverse impact on overall yield in terms of monetary value or nutritional energy. This study provides a clear demonstration that wildlife-friendly management which supports ecosystem services is compatible with, and can even increase, crop yields. © 2015 The Authors.

Wildlife-friendly farming increases crop yield: evidence for ecological intensification

PubMed Central

Pywell, Richard F.; Heard, Matthew S.; Woodcock, Ben A.; Hinsley, Shelley; Ridding, Lucy; Nowakowski, Marek; Bullock, James M.

2015-01-01

Ecological intensification has been promoted as a means to achieve environmentally sustainable increases in crop yields by enhancing ecosystem functions that regulate and support production. There is, however, little direct evidence of yield benefits from ecological intensification on commercial farms growing globally important foodstuffs (grains, oilseeds and pulses). We replicated two treatments removing 3 or 8% of land at the field edge from production to create wildlife habitat in 50–60 ha patches over a 900 ha commercial arable farm in central England, and compared these to a business as usual control (no land removed). In the control fields, crop yields were reduced by as much as 38% at the field edge. Habitat creation in these lower yielding areas led to increased yield in the cropped areas of the fields, and this positive effect became more pronounced over 6 years. As a consequence, yields at the field scale were maintained—and, indeed, enhanced for some crops—despite the loss of cropland for habitat creation. These results suggested that over a 5-year crop rotation, there would be no adverse impact on overall yield in terms of monetary value or nutritional energy. This study provides a clear demonstration that wildlife-friendly management which supports ecosystem services is compatible with, and can even increase, crop yields. PMID:26423846

Nitrogen rate strategies for reducing yield-scaled nitrous oxide emissions in maize

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Xu; Nafziger, Emerson D.; Pittelkow, Cameron M.

2017-12-01

Mitigating nitrogen (N) losses from agriculture without negatively impacting crop productivity is a pressing environmental and economic challenge. Reductions in N fertilizer rate are often highlighted as a solution, yet the degree to which crop yields and economic returns may be impacted at the field-level remains unclear, in part due to limited data availability. Farmers are risk averse and potential yield losses may limit the success of voluntary N loss mitigation protocols, thus understanding field-level yield tradeoffs is critical to inform policy development. Using a case study of soil N2O mitigation in the US Midwest, we conducted an ex-post assessment of two economic and two environmental N rate reduction strategies to identify promising practices for maintaining maize yields and economic returns while reducing N2O emissions per unit yield (i.e. yield-scaled emissions) compared to an assumed baseline N input level. Maize yield response data from 201 on-farm N rate experiments were combined with an empirical equation predicting N2O emissions as a function of N rate. Results indicate that the economic strategy aimed at maximizing returns to N (MRTN) led to moderate but consistent reductions in yield-scaled N2O emissions with small negative impacts on yield and slight increases in median returns. The economic optimum N rate strategy reduced yield-scaled N2O emissions in 75% of cases but increased them otherwise, challenging the assumption that this strategy will automatically reduce environmental impacts per unit production. Both environmental strategies, one designed to increase N recovery efficiency and one to balance N inputs with grain N removal, further reduced yield-scaled N2O emissions but were also associated with negative yield penalties and decreased returns. These results highlight the inherent tension between achieving agronomic and economic goals while reducing environmental impacts which is often overlooked in policy discussions. To enable the

Surprise responses in the human brain demonstrate statistical learning under high concurrent cognitive demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrido, Marta Isabel; Teng, Chee Leong James; Taylor, Jeremy Alexander; Rowe, Elise Genevieve; Mattingley, Jason Brett

2016-06-01

The ability to learn about regularities in the environment and to make predictions about future events is fundamental for adaptive behaviour. We have previously shown that people can implicitly encode statistical regularities and detect violations therein, as reflected in neuronal responses to unpredictable events that carry a unique prediction error signature. In the real world, however, learning about regularities will often occur in the context of competing cognitive demands. Here we asked whether learning of statistical regularities is modulated by concurrent cognitive load. We compared electroencephalographic metrics associated with responses to pure-tone sounds with frequencies sampled from narrow or wide Gaussian distributions. We showed that outliers evoked a larger response than those in the centre of the stimulus distribution (i.e., an effect of surprise) and that this difference was greater for physically identical outliers in the narrow than in the broad distribution. These results demonstrate an early neurophysiological marker of the brain's ability to implicitly encode complex statistical structure in the environment. Moreover, we manipulated concurrent cognitive load by having participants perform a visual working memory task while listening to these streams of sounds. We again observed greater prediction error responses in the narrower distribution under both low and high cognitive load. Furthermore, there was no reliable reduction in prediction error magnitude under high-relative to low-cognitive load. Our findings suggest that statistical learning is not a capacity limited process, and that it proceeds automatically even when cognitive resources are taxed by concurrent demands.

Venetoclax Yields Strong Responses in CLL.

PubMed

2016-02-01

Results from an international phase II study show that the investigational BCL2 inhibitor venetoclax is effective in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia and the chromosome 17p deletion, whose prognosis is particularly poor. Venetoclax yielded high and durable responses in this population, including several complete remissions. ©2016 American Association for Cancer Research.

Application Process Improvement Yields Results.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holesovsky, Jan Paul

1995-01-01

After a continuing effort to improve its grant application process, the department of medical microbiology and immunology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison is submitting many more applications and realizing increased funding. The methods and strategy used to make the process more efficient and effective are outlined. (Author/MSE)

Comparison of the Results of MISSE 6 Atomic Oxygen Erosion Yields of Layered Kapton H Films with Monte Carlo Computational Predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Banks, Bruce A.; Groh, Kim De; Kneubel, Christian A.

2014-01-01

A space experiment flown as part of the Materials International Space Station Experiment 6B (MISSE 6B) was designed to compare the atomic oxygen erosion yield (Ey) of layers of Kapton H polyimide with no spacers between layers with that of layers of Kapton H with spacers between layers. The results were compared to a solid Kapton H (DuPont, Wilmington, DE) sample. Monte Carlo computational modeling was performed to optimize atomic oxygen interaction parameter values to match the results of both the MISSE 6B multilayer experiment and the undercut erosion profile from a crack defect in an aluminized Kapton H sample flown on the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF). The Monte Carlo modeling produced credible agreement with space results of increased Ey for all samples with spacers as well as predicting the space-observed enhancement in erosion near the edges of samples due to scattering from the beveled edges of the sample holders.

Crop yield responses to a hardwood biochar across varied soils and climate conditions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Biochars applied to soil for crop yield improvements have produced mixed results. The assorted crop yield responses may be linked to employing biochars with diverse chemical and physical characteristics. To clarify if biochars can improve crop yields, it may be prudent to evaluate one biochar type...

Relationships between surface solar radiation and wheat yield in Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez-Barrera, Sara; Rodriguez-Puebla, Concepción

2017-04-01

Here we examine the role of solar radiation to describe wheat-yield variability in Spain. We used Partial Least Square regression to capture the modes of surface solar radiation that drive wheat-yield variability. We will show that surface solar radiation introduces the effects of teleconnection patterns on wheat yield and also it is associated with drought and diurnal temperature range. We highlight the importance of surface solar radiation to obtain models for wheat-yield projections because it could reduce uncertainty with respect to the projections based on temperatures and precipitation variables. In addition, the significance of the model based on surface solar radiation is greater than the previous one based on drought and diurnal temperature range (Hernandez-Barrera et al., 2016). According to our results, the increase of solar radiation over Spain for 21st century could force a wheat-yield decrease (Hernandez-Barrera et al., 2017). Hernandez-Barrera S., Rodríguez-Puebla C. and Challinor A.J. 2016 Effects of diurnal temperature range and drought on wheat yield in Spain. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. DOI: 10.1007/s00704-016-1779-9 Hernandez-Barrera S., Rodríguez-Puebla C. 2017 Wheat yield in Spain and associated solar radiation patterns. International Journal of Climatology. DOI: 10.1002/joc.4975

Investigation of the heat source(s) of the Surprise Valley Geothermal System, Northern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanner, N.; Holt, C. D.; Hawkes, S.; McClain, J. S.; Safford, L.; Mink, L. L.; Rose, C.; Zierenberg, R. A.

2016-12-01

Concerns about environmental impacts and energy security have led to an increased interest in sustainable and renewable energy resources, including geothermal systems. It is essential to know the permeability structure and possible heat source(s) of a geothermal area in order to assess the capacity and extent of the potential resource. We have undertaken geophysical surveys at the Surprise Valley Hot Springs in Cedarville, California to characterize essential parameters related to a fault-controlled geothermal system. At present, the heat source(s) for the system are unknown. Igneous bodies in the area are likely too old to have retained enough heat to supply the system, so it is probable that fracture networks provide heat from some deeper or more distributed heat sources. However, the fracture system and permeability structure remain enigmatic. The goal of our research is to identify the pathways for fluid transport within the Surprise Valley geothermal system using a combination of geophysical methods including active seismic surveys and short- and long-period magnetotelluric (MT) surveys. We have collected 14 spreads, consisting of 24 geophones each, of active-source seismic data. We used a "Betsy Gun" source at 8 to 12 locations along each spread and have collected and analyzed about 2800 shot-receiver pairs. Seismic velocities reveal shallow lake sediments, as well as velocities consistent with porous basalts. The latter, with velocities of greater than 3.0 km/s, lie along strike with known hot springs and faulted and tilted basalt outcrops outside our field area. This suggests that basalts may provide a permeable pathway through impermeable lake deposits. We conducted short-period (10Hz-60kHz) MT measurements at 33 stations. Our short-period MT models indicate shallow resistive blocks (>100Ωm) with a thin cover of more conductive sediments ( 10Ωm) at the surface. Hot springs are located in gaps between resistive blocks and are connected to deeper low

Linkages among climate change, crop yields and Mexico-US cross-border migration.

PubMed

Feng, Shuaizhang; Krueger, Alan B; Oppenheimer, Michael

2010-08-10

Climate change is expected to cause mass human migration, including immigration across international borders. This study quantitatively examines the linkages among variations in climate, agricultural yields, and people's migration responses by using an instrumental variables approach. Our method allows us to identify the relationship between crop yields and migration without explicitly controlling for all other confounding factors. Using state-level data from Mexico, we find a significant effect of climate-driven changes in crop yields on the rate of emigration to the United States. The estimated semielasticity of emigration with respect to crop yields is approximately -0.2, i.e., a 10% reduction in crop yields would lead an additional 2% of the population to emigrate. We then use the estimated semielasticity to explore the potential magnitude of future emigration. Depending on the warming scenarios used and adaptation levels assumed, with other factors held constant, by approximately the year 2080, climate change is estimated to induce 1.4 to 6.7 million adult Mexicans (or 2% to 10% of the current population aged 15-65 y) to emigrate as a result of declines in agricultural productivity alone. Although the results cannot be mechanically extrapolated to other areas and time periods, our findings are significant from a global perspective given that many regions, especially developing countries, are expected to experience significant declines in agricultural yields as a result of projected warming.

Effect of unitarization on the amplitudes for the decays K{sub 1}{sup 0} {sup {yields} {pi}+{pi}-} and K{sup +} {sup {yields} {pi}+{pi}+{pi}-}

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shabalin, E. P., E-mail: shabalin@itep.r

The unitarization of the amplitude for the decay process K{sub 1}{sup 0} {sup {yields} {pi}+{pi}-} and allowance for the rescattering of final-state pions in the decay process K{sup +} {sup {yields} {pi}+{pi}+{pi}-} make it possible to evaluate, by using the parameters extracted from data on K {sup {yields}}2{pi} decays, the K{sup +} {sup {yields} {pi}+{pi}+{pi}-} decay width. The result agrees with the experimental width value at a level of a few percent. Allowance for corrections for higher order terms of the momentum expansion of the amplitude for the decay process K{sup +} {sup {yields} {pi}+{pi}+{pi}-} leads to the slope-parameter valuemore » of g{sub ++-}{sup th} = 0.2182, which agrees with its experimental counterpart, g{sub ++-}{sup exp} = 0.2154 {+-} 0.0035.« less

Factors Affecting Firm Yield and the Estimation of Firm Yield for Selected Streamflow-Dominated Drinking-Water-Supply Reservoirs in Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waldron, Marcus C.; Archfield, Stacey A.

2006-01-01

Factors affecting reservoir firm yield, as determined by application of the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection's Firm Yield Estimator (FYE) model, were evaluated, modified, and tested on 46 streamflow-dominated reservoirs representing 15 Massachusetts drinking-water supplies. The model uses a mass-balance approach to determine the maximum average daily withdrawal rate that can be sustained during a period of record that includes the 1960s drought-of-record. The FYE methodology to estimate streamflow to the reservoir at an ungaged site was tested by simulating streamflow at two streamflow-gaging stations in Massachusetts and comparing the simulated streamflow to the observed streamflow. In general, the FYE-simulated flows agreed well with observed flows. There were substantial deviations from the measured values for extreme high and low flows. A sensitivity analysis determined that the model's streamflow estimates are most sensitive to input values for average annual precipitation, reservoir drainage area, and the soil-retention number-a term that describes the amount of precipitation retained by the soil in the basin. The FYE model currently provides the option of using a 1,000-year synthetic record constructed by randomly sampling 2-year blocks of concurrent streamflow and precipitation records 500 times; however, the synthetic record has the potential to generate records of precipitation and streamflow that do not reflect the worst historical drought in Massachusetts. For reservoirs that do not have periods of drawdown greater than 2 years, the bootstrap does not offer any additional information about the firm yield of a reservoir than the historical record does. For some reservoirs, the use of a synthetic record to determine firm yield resulted in as much as a 30-percent difference between firm-yield values from one simulation to the next. Furthermore, the assumption that the synthetic traces of streamflow are statistically equivalent to the

Search for Proton Decay via p{yields}e{sup +}{pi}{sup 0} and p{yields}{mu}{sup +}{pi}{sup 0} in a Large Water Cherenkov Detector

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nishino, H.; Hazama, S.; Higuchi, I.

2009-04-10

We have searched for proton decays via p{yields}e{sup +}{pi}{sup 0} and p{yields}{mu}{sup +}{pi}{sup 0} using data from a 91.7 kt{center_dot}yr exposure of Super-Kamiokande-I and a 49.2 kt{center_dot}yr exposure of Super-Kamiokande-II. No candidate events were observed with expected backgrounds induced by atmospheric neutrinos of 0.3 events for each decay mode. From these results, we set lower limits on the partial lifetime of 8.2x10{sup 33} and 6.6x10{sup 33} years at 90% confidence level for p{yields}e{sup +}{pi}{sup 0} and p{yields}{mu}{sup +}{pi}{sup 0} modes, respectively.

Calculated secondary yields for proton broadband using DECAY TURTLE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sondgeroth, A.

1995-02-01

The calculations for the yields were done by Al Sondgeroth and Anthony Malensek. The authors used the DECAY deck called PBSEC{_}E.DAT from the CMS DECKS library. After obtaining the run modes and calibration modes from the liaison physicist, they made individual decay runs, using DECAY TURTLE from the CMS libraries and a production spectrum subroutine which was modified by Anthony, for each particle and decay mode for all particle types coming out of the target box. Results were weighted according to branching ratios for particles with more than one decay mode. The production spectra were produced assuming beryllium as themore » target. The optional deuterium target available to broadband will produce slightly higher yields. It should be noted that they did not include pion yields from klong decays because they could not simulate three body decays. Pions from klongs would add a very small fraction to the total yield.« less

Yield Mapping for Different Crops in Sudano-Sahelian Smallholder Farming Systems: Results Based on Metric Worldview and Decametric SPOT-5 Take5 Time Series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blaes, X.; Lambert, M.-J.; Chome, G.; Traore, P. S.; de By, R. A.; Defourny, P.

2016-08-01

Efficient yield mapping in Sudano-Sahelian Africa, characterized by a very heterogeneous landscape, is crucial to help ensure food security and decrease smallholder farmers' vulnerability. Thanks to an unprecedented in-situ data and HR and VHR remote sensing time series collected in the Koutiala district (in south-eastern Mali), the yield and some key factors of yield estimation were estimated. A crop-specific biomass map was derived with a mean absolute error of 20% using metric WorldView and 25% using decametric SPOT-5 TAKE5 image time series. The very high intra- and inter-field heterogeneity was captured efficiently. The presence of trees in the fields led to a general overestimation of yields, while the mixed pixels at the field borders introduced noise in the biomass predictions.

Growth and yield models for central hardwoods

Treesearch

Martin E. Dale; Donald E. Hilt

1989-01-01

Over the last 20 years computers have become an efficient tool to estimate growth and yield. Computerized yield estimates vary from simple approximation or interpolation of traditional normal yield tables to highly sophisticated programs that simulate the growth and yield of each individual tree.

Estimating oak growth and yield

Treesearch

Martin E. Dale; Donald E. Hilt

1989-01-01

Yields from upland oak stands vary widely from stand to stand due to differences in age, site quality, species composition, and stand structure. Cutting history and other past disturbances such as grazing or fire also affect yields.

A nonlinear viscoelastic constitutive equation - Yield predictions in multiaxial deformations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shay, R. M., Jr.; Caruthers, J. M.

1987-01-01

Yield stress predictions of a nonlinear viscoelastic constitutive equation for amorphous polymer solids have been obtained and are compared with the phenomenological von Mises yield criterion. Linear viscoelasticity theory has been extended to include finite strains and a material timescale that depends on the instantaneous temperature, volume, and pressure. Results are presented for yield and the correct temperature and strain-rate dependence in a variety of multiaxial deformations. The present nonlinear viscoelastic constitutive equation can be formulated in terms of either a Cauchy or second Piola-Kirchhoff stress tensor, and in terms of either atmospheric or hydrostatic pressure.

Reduced product yield in chemical processes by second law effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

England, C.; Funk, J. E.

1980-01-01

An analysis of second law effects in chemical processes, where product yield is explicitly related to the individual irreversibilities within the process to indicate a maximum theoretical yield, is presented. Examples are given that indicate differences between first and second law approaches toward process efficiency and process yield. This analysis also expresses production capacity in terms of the heating value of a product. As a result, it is particularly convenient in analyzing fuel conversion plants and their potential for improvement. Relationships are also given for the effects of irreversibilities on requirements for process heat and for feedstocks.

Fission yield and criticality excursion code

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blanchard, A.

2000-06-30

The ANSI/ANS 8.3 standard allows a maximum yield not to exceed 2 x 10 fissions to calculate requiring the alarm system to be effective. It is common practice to use this allowance or to develop some other yield based on past criticality accident history or excursion experiments. The literature on the subject of yields discusses maximum yields larger and somewhat smaller than the ANS 8.3 permissive value. The ability to model criticality excursions and vary the various parameters to determine a credible maximum yield for operational specific cases has been available for some time but is not in common usemore » by criticality safety specialists. The topic of yields for various solution, metal, oxide powders, etc. in various geometry's and containers has been published by laboratory specialists or university staff and students for many decades but have not been available to practitioners. The need for best-estimate calculations of fission yields with a well-validated criticality excursion code has long been recognized. But no coordinated effort has been made so far to develop a generalized and well-validated excursion code for different types of systems. In this paper, the current practices to estimate fission yields are summarized along with its shortcomings for the 12-Rad zone (at SRS) and Criticality Alarm System (CAS) calculations. Finally the need for a user-friendly excursion code is reemphasized.« less

Climate Variability and Sugarcane Yield in Louisiana.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenland, David

2005-11-01

This paper seeks to understand the role that climate variability has on annual yield of sugarcane in Louisiana. Unique features of sugarcane growth in Louisiana and nonclimatic, yield-influencing factors make this goal an interesting and challenging one. Several methods of seeking and establishing the relations between yield and climate variables are employed. First, yield climate relations were investigated at a single research station where crop variety and growing conditions could be held constant and yield relations could be established between a predominant older crop variety and a newer one. Interviews with crop experts and a literature survey were used to identify potential climatic factors that control yield. A statistical analysis was performed using statewide yield data from the American Sugar Cane League from 1963 to 2002 and a climate database. Yield values for later years were adjusted downward to form an adjusted yield dataset. The climate database was principally constructed from daily and monthly values of maximum and minimum temperature and daily and monthly total precipitation for six cooperative weather-reporting stations representative of the area of sugarcane production. The influence of 74 different, though not independent, climate-related variables on sugarcane yield was investigated. The fact that a climate signal exists is demonstrated by comparing mean values of the climate variables corresponding to the upper and lower third of adjusted yield values. Most of these mean-value differences show an intuitively plausible difference between the high- and low-yield years. The difference between means of the climate variables for years corresponding to the upper and lower third of annual yield values for 13 of the variables is statistically significant at or above the 90% level. A correlation matrix was used to identify the variables that had the largest influence on annual yield. Four variables [called here critical climatic variables (CCV

Climate Change Impact on Rainfall: How will Threaten Wheat Yield?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tafoughalti, K.; El Faleh, E. M.; Moujahid, Y.; Ouargaga, F.

2018-05-01

Climate change has a significant impact on the environmental condition of the agricultural region. Meknes has an agrarian economy and wheat production is of paramount importance. As most arable area are under rainfed system, Meknes is one of the sensitive regions to rainfall variability and consequently to climate change. Therefore, the use of changes in rainfall is vital for detecting the influence of climate system on agricultural productivity. This article identifies rainfall temporal variability and its impact on wheat yields. We used monthly rainfall records for three decades and wheat yields records of fifteen years. Rainfall variability is assessed utilizing the precipitation concentration index and the variation coefficient. The association between wheat yields and cumulative rainfall amounts of different scales was calculated based on a regression model. The analysis shown moderate seasonal and irregular annual rainfall distribution. Yields fluctuated from 210 to 4500 Kg/ha with 52% of coefficient of variation. The correlation results shows that wheat yields are strongly correlated with rainfall of the period January to March. This investigation concluded that climate change is altering wheat yield and it is crucial to adept the necessary adaptation to challenge the risk.

Recent climate variability and its impacts on soybean yields in Southern Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferreira, Danielle Barros; Rao, V. Brahmananda

2011-08-01

Recent climate variability in rainfall, temperatures (maximum and minimum), and the diurnal temperature range is studied with emphasis on its influence over soybean yields in southern Brazil, during 1969 to 2002. The results showed that the soybean ( Glycine max L. Merril) yields are more affected by changes in temperature during summer, while changes in rainfall are more important during the beginning of plantation and at its peak of development. Furthermore, soybean yields in Paraná are more sensitive to rainfall variations, while soybean yields in the Rio Grande do Sul are more sensitive to variations in temperature. Effects of interannual climatic variability on soybean yields are evaluated through three agro-meteorological models: additive Stewart, multiplicative Rao, and multiplicative Jensen. The Jensen model is able to reproduce the interannual behavior of soybean yield reasonably well.

Fast pyrolysis of palm kernel shells: influence of operation parameters on the bio-oil yield and the yield of phenol and phenolic compounds.

PubMed

Kim, Seon-Jin; Jung, Su-Hwa; Kim, Joo-Sik

2010-12-01

Palm kernel shells were pyrolyzed in a pyrolysis plant equipped with a fluidized-bed reactor and a char-separation system. The influence of reaction temperature, feed size and feed rate on the product spectrum was also investigated. In addition, the effect of reaction temperature on the yields of phenol and phenolic compounds in the bio-oil was examined. The maximum bio-oil yield was 48.7 wt.% of the product at 490 degrees C. The maximum yield of phenol plus phenolic compounds amounted to about 70 area percentage at 475 degrees C. The yield of pyrolytic lignin after its isolation from the bio-oil was approximately 46 wt.% based on the water and ash free oil. The pyrolytic lignin was mainly composed of phenol, phenolic compounds and oligomers of coniferyl, sinapyl and p-coumaryl alcohols. From the result of a GPC analysis, the number average molecular weight and the weight average molecular weight were 325 and 463 g/mol, respectively. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Yield gap mapping as a support tool for risk management in agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lahlou, Ouiam; Imani, Yasmina; Slimani, Imane; Van Wart, Justin; Yang, Haishun

2016-04-01

The increasing frequency and magnitude of droughts in Morocco and the mounting losses from extended droughts in the agricultural sector emphasized the need to develop reliable and timely tools to manage drought and to mitigate resulting catastrophic damage. In 2011, Morocco launched a cereals multi-risk insurance with drought as the most threatening and the most frequent hazard in the country. However, and in order to assess the gap and to implement the more suitable compensation, it is essential to quantify the potential yield in each area. In collaboration with the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, a study is carried out in Morocco and aims to determine the yield potentials and the yield gaps in the different agro-climatic zones of the country. It fits into the large project: Global Yield Gap and Water Productivity Atlas: http://www.yieldgap.org/. The yield gap (Yg) is the magnitude and difference between crop yield potential (Yp) or water limited yield potential (Yw) and actual yields, reached by farmers. World Food Studies (WOFOST), which is a Crop simulation mechanistic model, has been used for this purpose. Prior to simulations, reliable information about actual yields, weather data, crop management data and soil data have been collected in 7 Moroccan buffer zones considered, each, within a circle of 100 km around a weather station point, homogenously spread across the country and where cereals are widely grown. The model calibration was also carried out using WOFOST default varieties data. The map-based results represent a robust tool, not only for drought insurance organization, but for agricultural and agricultural risk management. Moreover, accurate and geospatially granular estimates of Yg and Yw will allow to focus on regions with largest unexploited yield gaps and greatest potential to close them, and consequently to improve food security in the country.

Global growth and stability of agricultural yield decrease with pollinator dependence

PubMed Central

Garibaldi, Lucas A.; Aizen, Marcelo A.; Klein, Alexandra M.; Cunningham, Saul A.; Harder, Lawrence D.

2011-01-01

Human welfare depends on the amount and stability of agricultural production, as determined by crop yield and cultivated area. Yield increases asymptotically with the resources provided by farmers’ inputs and environmentally sensitive ecosystem services. Declining yield growth with increased inputs prompts conversion of more land to cultivation, but at the risk of eroding ecosystem services. To explore the interdependence of agricultural production and its stability on ecosystem services, we present and test a general graphical model, based on Jensen's inequality, of yield–resource relations and consider implications for land conversion. For the case of animal pollination as a resource influencing crop yield, this model predicts that incomplete and variable pollen delivery reduces yield mean and stability (inverse of variability) more for crops with greater dependence on pollinators. Data collected by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations during 1961–2008 support these predictions. Specifically, crops with greater pollinator dependence had lower mean and stability in relative yield and yield growth, despite global yield increases for most crops. Lower yield growth was compensated by increased land cultivation to enhance production of pollinator-dependent crops. Area stability also decreased with pollinator dependence, as it correlated positively with yield stability among crops. These results reveal that pollen limitation hinders yield growth of pollinator-dependent crops, decreasing temporal stability of global agricultural production, while promoting compensatory land conversion to agriculture. Although we examined crop pollination, our model applies to other ecosystem services for which the benefits to human welfare decelerate as the maximum is approached. PMID:21422295

Improving the yield from fermentative hydrogen production.

PubMed

Kraemer, Jeremy T; Bagley, David M

2007-05-01

Efforts to increase H(2) yields from fermentative H(2) production include heat treatment of the inoculum, dissolved gas removal, and varying the organic loading rate. Although heat treatment kills methanogens and selects for spore-forming bacteria, the available evidence indicates H(2) yields are not maximized compared to bromoethanesulfonate, iodopropane, or perchloric acid pre-treatments and spore-forming acetogens are not killed. Operational controls (low pH, short solids retention time) can replace heat treatment. Gas sparging increases H(2) yields compared to un-sparged reactors, but no relationship exists between the sparging rate and H(2) yield. Lower sparging rates may improve the H(2) yield with less energy input and product dilution. The reasons why sparging improves H(2) yields are unknown, but recent measurements of dissolved H(2) concentrations during sparging suggest the assumption of decreased inhibition of the H(2)-producing enzymes is unlikely. Significant disagreement exists over the effect of organic loading rate (OLR); some studies show relatively higher OLRs improve H(2) yield while others show the opposite. Discovering the reasons for higher H(2) yields during dissolved gas removal and changes in OLR will help improve H(2) yields.

Measurements of {Gamma}(Z{sup O} {yields} b{bar b})/{Gamma}(Z{sup O} {yields} hadrons) using the SLD

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Neal, H.A. Jr. II

1995-07-01

The quantity R{sub b} = {Gamma}(Z{sup o} {yields}b{bar b})/{Gamma}(Z{sup o} {yields} hadrons) is a sensitive measure of corrections to the Zbb vertex. The precision necessary to observe the top quark mass dependent corrections is close to being achieved. LEP is already observing a 1.8{sigma} deviation from the Standard Model prediction. Knowledge of the top quark mass combined with the observation of deviations from the Standard Model prediction would indicate new physics. Models which include charged Higgs or light SUSY particles yield predictions for R{sub b} appreciably different from the Standard Model. In this thesis two independent methods are used tomore » measure R{sub b}. One uses a general event tag which determines R{sub b} from the rate at which events are tagged as Z{sup o} {yields} b{bar b} in data and the estimated rates at which various flavors of events are tagged from the Monte Carlo. The second method reduces the reliance on the Monte Carlo by separately tagging each hemisphere as containing a b-decay. The rates of single hemisphere tagged events and both hemisphere tagged events are used to determine the tagging efficiency for b-quarks directly from the data thus eliminating the main sources of systematic error present in the event tag. Both measurements take advantage of the unique environment provided by the SLAC Linear Collider (SLC) and the SLAC Large Detector (SLD). From the event tag a result of R{sub b} = 0.230{plus_minus}0.004{sub statistical}{plus_minus}0.013{sub systematic} is obtained. The higher precision hemisphere tag result obtained is R{sub b} = 0.218{plus_minus}0.004{sub statistical}{plus_minus}0.004{sub systematic}{plus_minus}0.003{sub Rc}.« less

Silviculture affects composition, growth, and yield in mixed northern conifers: 40-year results from the Penobscot Experimental Forest

Treesearch

Paul E. Sendak; John C. Brissette; Robert M. Frank

2003-01-01

This long-term experiment in Maine, U.S.A., was designed to provide information on the best silvicultural practices for managing stands of mixed northern conifers in northeastern U.S.A. We evaluated growth and yield and changes in species composition, quality, and structure during the first 40 years of the experiment. Replicated treatments include the selection system...

Ethiopian Wheat Yield and Yield Gap Estimation: A Spatial Small Area Integrated Data Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mann, M.; Warner, J.

2015-12-01

Despite the collection of routine annual agricultural surveys and significant advances in GIS and remote sensing products, little econometric research has been undertaken in predicting developing nation's agricultural yields. In this paper, we explore the determinants of wheat output per hectare in Ethiopia during the 2011-2013 Meher crop seasons aggregated to the woreda administrative area. Using a panel data approach, combining national agricultural field surveys with relevant GIS and remote sensing products, the model explains nearly 40% of the total variation in wheat output per hectare across the country. The model also identifies specific contributors to wheat yields that include farm management techniques (eg. area planted, improved seed, fertilizer, irrigation), weather (eg. rainfall), water availability (vegetation and moisture deficit indexes) and policy intervention. Our findings suggest that woredas produce between 9.8 and 86.5% of their potential wheat output per hectare given their altitude, weather conditions, terrain, and plant health. At the median, Amhara, Oromiya, SNNP, and Tigray produce 48.6, 51.5, 49.7, and 61.3% of their local attainable yields, respectively. This research has a broad range of applications, especially from a public policy perspective: identifying causes of yield fluctuations, remotely evaluating larger agricultural intervention packages, and analyzing relative yield potential. Overall, the combination of field surveys with spatial data can be used to identify management priorities for improving production at a variety of administrative levels.

Carbon Dioxide: Surprising Effects on Decision Making and Neurocognitive Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

James, John T.

2013-01-01

The occupants of modern submarines and the International Space Station (ISS) have much in common as far as their air quality is concerned. Air is polluted by materials offgassing, use of utility compounds, leaks of systems chemicals, and anthropogenic sources. The primary anthropogenic compound of concern to submariners and astronauts has been carbon dioxide (CO2). NASA and the US Navy rely on the National Research Council Committee on Toxicology (NRC-COT) to help formulate exposure levels to CO2 that are thought to be safe for exposures of 3-6 months. NASA calls its limits Spacecraft Maximum Allowable Concentrations (SMACs). Years of experience aboard the ISS and a recent publication on deficits in decision making in ground-based subjects exposed briefly to 0.25% CO2 suggest that exposure levels that have been presumed acceptable to preserve health and performance need to be reevaluated. The current CO2 exposure limits for 3-6 months set by NASA and the UK Navy are 0.7%, and the limit for US submariners is 0.5%, although the NRC-COT recommended a 90-day level of 0.8% as safe a few years ago. NASA has set a 1000-day SMAC at 0.5% for exploration-class missions. Anecdotal experience with ISS operations approaching the current 180-day SMAC of 0.7% suggest that this limit is too high. Temporarily, NASA has limited exposures to 0.5% until further peer-reviewed data become available. In the meantime, a study published last year in the journal Environmental Health Perspectives (Satish U, et al. 2012) demonstrated that complexdecision- making performance is somewhat affected at 0.1% CO2 and becomes "dysfunctional" for at least half of the 9 indices of performance at concentrations approaching 0.25% CO2. The investigators used the Strategic Management Simulation (SMS) method of testing for decisionmaking ability, and the results were so surprising to the investigators that they declared that their findings need to be independently confirmed. NASA has responded to the

Yields of Bacterial Cells from Hydrocarbons

PubMed Central

Wodzinski, Richard S.; Johnson, Marvin J.

1968-01-01

A strain of Nocardia and one of Pseudomonas, both isolated on pristane (2,6,10,14-tetramethylpentadecane), gave cell yields of approximately 100% on n-octadecane and pristane. Both organisms grew more rapidly on the n-octadecane than on the pristane. A mixed culture, isolated on 3-methylheptane, whose two components were identified as species of Pseudomonas and of Nocardia, gave approximately 100% cell yields and grew with generation times of about 5 hr on n-heptane, n-octane, and 2-methylheptane. The generation time on 3-methylheptane was 8.6 hr and the cell yield was only 79%. A strain of Pseudomonas isolated from naphthalene enrichments and one from phenanthrene enrichments both gave a cell yield of 50% on naphthalene. The phenanthrene isolate gave a cell yield of 40% on phenanthrene. A Nocardia species isolated on benzene gave a 79% cell yield on benzene. The generation times of the bacteria isolated on aromatic hydrocarbons were related to the solubility of the aromatic hydrocarbons on which they were grown; the more insoluble hydrocarbons gave slower growth. PMID:5726161

Waterlogging effects on growth and yield components in late-planted soybean.

PubMed

Linkemer, G; Board, J E; Musgrave, M E

1998-01-01

A major agronomic problem in the southeastern USA is low yield of late-planted soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.]. This problem is aggravated by the adverse effect of waterlogging on crop growth. Our objectives were to identify soybean growth stages sensitive to waterlogging; identify yield components and physiological parameters explaining yield losses induced by waterlogging; and determine the extent of yield losses induced by waterlogging under natural field conditions. Greenhouse and field studies were conducted during 1993 and 1994 near Baton Rouge, LA, (30 degrees N Lat) on a Commerce silt loam. Waterlogging tolerance was assessed in cultivar Centennial (Maturity Group VI) at three vegetative and five reproductive growth stages by maintaining the water level at the soil surface in a greenhouse study. Using the same cultivar, we evaluated the effect of drainage in the field for late-planted soybean. Rain episodes determined the timing of waterlogging; redox potential and oxygen concentration of the soil were used to quantify the intensity of waterlogging stress. Results of the greenhouse study indicated that the early vegetative period (V2) and the early reproductive stages (R1, R3, and R5) were most sensitive to waterlogging. Three to 5 cm of rain per day falling on poorly drained soil was sufficient to reduce crop growth rate, resulting in a yield decline from 2453 to 1550 kg ha-1. Yield loss in both field and greenhouse studies was induced primarily by decreased pod production resulting from fewer pods per reproductive node. In conclusion, waterlogging was determined to be an important stress for late-planted soybean in high rainfall areas such as the Gulf Coast Region.

Quantitative Generalizations for Catchment Sediment Yield Following Plantation Logging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bathurst, James; Iroume, Andres

2014-05-01

While there is a reasonably clear qualitative understanding of the impact of forest plantations on sediment yield, there is a lack of quantitative generalizations. Such generalizations would be helpful for estimating the impacts of proposed forestry operations and would aid the spread of knowledge amongst both relevant professionals and new students. This study therefore analyzed data from the literature to determine the extent to which quantitative statements can be established. The research was restricted to the impact of plantation logging on catchment sediment yield as a function of ground disturbance in the years immediately following logging, in temperate countries, and does not consider landslides consequent upon tree root decay. Twelve paired catchment studies incorporating pre- and post-logging measurements of sediment yield were identified, resulting in forty-three test catchments (including 14 control catchments). Analysis yielded the following principal conclusions: 1) Logging generally provokes maximum annual sediment yields of less than a few hundred t km-2 yr-1; best management practice can reduce this below 100 t km-2 yr-1. 2) At both the annual and event scales, the sediment yield excess of a logged catchment over a control catchment is within one order of magnitude, except with severe ground disturbance. 3) There is no apparent relationship between sediment yield impact and the proportion of catchment logged. The effect depends on which part of the catchment is altered and on its connectivity to the stream network. 4) The majority of catchments delivered their maximum sediment yield in the first two years after logging. The logging impacts were classified in terms of the absolute values of specific sediment yield, the values relative to those in the control catchments for the same period and the values relative both to the control catchment and the pre-logging period. Most studies have been for small catchments (< 10 km2) and temperate regions

Linkages among climate change, crop yields and Mexico–US cross-border migration

PubMed Central

Feng, Shuaizhang; Krueger, Alan B.; Oppenheimer, Michael

2010-01-01

Climate change is expected to cause mass human migration, including immigration across international borders. This study quantitatively examines the linkages among variations in climate, agricultural yields, and people's migration responses by using an instrumental variables approach. Our method allows us to identify the relationship between crop yields and migration without explicitly controlling for all other confounding factors. Using state-level data from Mexico, we find a significant effect of climate-driven changes in crop yields on the rate of emigration to the United States. The estimated semielasticity of emigration with respect to crop yields is approximately −0.2, i.e., a 10% reduction in crop yields would lead an additional 2% of the population to emigrate. We then use the estimated semielasticity to explore the potential magnitude of future emigration. Depending on the warming scenarios used and adaptation levels assumed, with other factors held constant, by approximately the year 2080, climate change is estimated to induce 1.4 to 6.7 million adult Mexicans (or 2% to 10% of the current population aged 15–65 y) to emigrate as a result of declines in agricultural productivity alone. Although the results cannot be mechanically extrapolated to other areas and time periods, our findings are significant from a global perspective given that many regions, especially developing countries, are expected to experience significant declines in agricultural yields as a result of projected warming. PMID:20660749

Char yield on pyrolysis of cellulose

Treesearch

A. Broido; Maxine A. Nelson

1975-01-01

Whether the pyrolysis of cellulose is conducted in an inert medium or in air, partial pyrolysis at a lower temperature increases the char yield subsequently obtained after 1 hour at 370°C. The results are consistent with a pyrolysis scheme in which two competing sequences of cellulose pyrolysis reactions are initiated by (1) an intermolecular dehydration leading to...

Contradictory results in interferon research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sonnenfeld, G.

1984-01-01

Several reports on immunologically related interferon research, both in the areas of basic science and clinical research, are briefly reviewed, and it is noted that in many cases the results obtained are contradictory. It is argued, however, that the contradictory results are not surprising since interferon is a biological response modifier and has been known to produce opposite results even when the same interferon prepartion is used. It is emphasized that dosage, timing, route, and other experimental conditions are essential factors in planning immunological studies with interferon. Careful planning of future experiments with interferon should be required to prevent the possible generation of effects that are opposite to those expected.

Irrigation offsets wheat yield reductions from warming temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tack, Jesse; Barkley, Andrew; Hendricks, Nathan

2017-11-01

Temperature increases due to climate change are expected to cause substantial reductions in global wheat yields. However, uncertainty remains regarding the potential role for irrigation as an adaptation strategy to offset heat impacts. Here we utilize over 7000 observations spanning eleven Kansas field-trial locations, 180 varieties, and 29 years to show that irrigation significantly reduces the negative impact of warming temperatures on winter wheat yields. Dryland wheat yields are estimated to decrease about eight percent for every one-degree Celsius increase in temperature, yet irrigation completely offsets this negative impact in our sample. As in previous studies, we find that important interactions exist between heat stress and precipitation for dryland production. Here, uniquely, we observe both dryland and irrigated trials side-by-side at the same locations and find that precipitation does not provide the same reduction in heat stress as irrigation. This is likely to be because the timing, intensity, and volume of water applications influence wheat yields, so the ability to irrigate—rather than relying on rainfall alone—has a stronger influence on heat stress. We find evidence of extensive differences of water-deficit stress impacts across varieties. This provides some evidence of the potential for adapting to hotter and drier climate conditions using optimal variety selection. Overall, our results highlight the critical role of water management for future global food security. Water scarcity not only reduces crop yields through water-deficit stress, but also amplifies the negative effects of warming temperatures.

Crop status evaluations and yield predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haun, J. R.

1976-01-01

One phase of the large area crop inventory project is presented. Wheat yield models based on the input of environmental variables potentially obtainable through the use of space remote sensing were developed and demonstrated. By the use of a unique method for visually qualifying daily plant development and subsequent multifactor computer analyses, it was possible to develop practical models for predicting crop development and yield. Development of wheat yield prediction models was based on the discovery that morphological changes in plants are detected and quantified on a daily basis, and that this change during a portion of the season was proportional to yield.

PAY1 improves plant architecture and enhances grain yield in rice.

PubMed

Zhao, Lei; Tan, Lubin; Zhu, Zuofeng; Xiao, Langtao; Xie, Daoxin; Sun, Chuanqing

2015-08-01

Plant architecture, a complex of the important agronomic traits that determine grain yield, is a primary target of artificial selection of rice domestication and improvement. Some important genes affecting plant architecture and grain yield have been isolated and characterized in recent decades; however, their underlying mechanism remains to be elucidated. Here, we report genetic identification and functional analysis of the PLANT ARCHITECTURE AND YIELD 1 (PAY1) gene in rice, which affects plant architecture and grain yield in rice. Transgenic plants over-expressing PAY1 had twice the number of grains per panicle and consequently produced nearly 38% more grain yield per plant than control plants. Mechanistically, PAY1 could improve plant architecture via affecting polar auxin transport activity and altering endogenous indole-3-acetic acid distribution. Furthermore, introgression of PAY1 into elite rice cultivars, using marker-assisted background selection, dramatically increased grain yield compared with the recipient parents. Overall, these results demonstrated that PAY1 could be a new beneficial genetic resource for shaping ideal plant architecture and breeding high-yielding rice varieties. © 2015 The Authors The Plant Journal published by Society for Experimental Biology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

African crop yield reductions due to increasingly unbalanced Nitrogen and Phosphorus consumption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Velde, Marijn; Folberth, Christian; Balkovič, Juraj; Ciais, Philippe; Fritz, Steffen; Janssens, Ivan A.; Obersteiner, Michael; See, Linda; Skalský, Rastislav; Xiong, Wei; Peñuealas, Josep

2014-05-01

The impact of soil nutrient depletion on crop production has been known for decades, but robust assessments of the impact of increasingly unbalanced nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) application rates on crop production are lacking. Here, we use crop response functions based on 741 FAO maize crop trials and EPIC crop modeling across Africa to examine maize yield deficits resulting from unbalanced N:P applications under low, medium, and high input scenarios, for past (1975), current, and future N:P mass ratios of respectively, 1:0.29, 1:0.15, and 1:0.05. At low N inputs (10 kg/ha), current yield deficits amount to 10% but will increase up to 27% under the assumed future N:P ratio, while at medium N inputs (50 kg N/ha), future yield losses could amount to over 40%. The EPIC crop model was then used to simulate maize yields across Africa. The model results showed relative median future yield reductions at low N inputs of 40%, and 50% at medium and high inputs, albeit with large spatial variability. Dominant low-quality soils such as Ferralsols, which are strongly adsorbing P, and Arenosols with a low nutrient retention capacity, are associated with a strong yield decline, although Arenosols show very variable crop yield losses at low inputs. Optimal N:P ratios, i.e. those where the lowest amount of applied P produces the highest yield (given N input) where calculated with EPIC to be as low as 1:0.5. Finally, we estimated the additional P required given current N inputs, and given N inputs that would allow Africa to close yield gaps (ca. 70%). At current N inputs, P consumption would have to increase 2.3-fold to be optimal, and to increase 11.7-fold to close yield gaps. The P demand to overcome these yield deficits would provide a significant additional pressure on current global extraction of P resources.

A Comparison of Machine Learning Approaches for Corn Yield Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, N.; Lee, Y. W.

2017-12-01

Machine learning is an efficient empirical method for classification and prediction, and it is another approach to crop yield estimation. The objective of this study is to estimate corn yield in the Midwestern United States by employing the machine learning approaches such as the support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and deep neural networks (DNN), and to perform the comprehensive comparison for their results. We constructed the database using satellite images from MODIS, the climate data of PRISM climate group, and GLDAS soil moisture data. In addition, to examine the seasonal sensitivities of corn yields, two period groups were set up: May to September (MJJAS) and July and August (JA). In overall, the DNN showed the highest accuracies in term of the correlation coefficient for the two period groups. The differences between our predictions and USDA yield statistics were about 10-11 %.

Calculation of the total electron excitation cross section in the Born approximation using Slater wave functions for the Li (2s yields 2p), Li (2s yields 3p), Na (3s yields 4p), Mg (3p yields 4s), Ca (4s yields 4p) and K (4s yields 4p) excitations. M.S. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simsic, P. L.

1974-01-01

Excitation of neutral atoms by inelastic scattering of incident electrons in gaseous nebulae were investigated using Slater Wave functions to describe the initial and final states of the atom. Total cross sections using the Born Approximation are calculated for: Li(2s yields 2p), Na(3s yields 4p), k(4s yields 4p). The intensity of emitted radiation from gaseous nebulae is also calculated, and Maxwell distribution is employed to average the kinetic energy of electrons.

Simulated crop yield in response to changes in climate and agricultural practices: results from a simple process based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldararu, S.; Smith, M. J.; Purves, D.; Emmott, S.

2013-12-01

Global agriculture will, in the future, be faced with two main challenges: climate change and an increase in global food demand driven by an increase in population and changes in consumption habits. To be able to predict both the impacts of changes in climate on crop yields and the changes in agricultural practices necessary to respond to such impacts we currently need to improve our understanding of crop responses to climate and the predictive capability of our models. Ideally, what we would have at our disposal is a modelling tool which, given certain climatic conditions and agricultural practices, can predict the growth pattern and final yield of any of the major crops across the globe. We present a simple, process-based crop growth model based on the assumption that plants allocate above- and below-ground biomass to maintain overall carbon optimality and that, to maintain this optimality, the reproductive stage begins at peak nitrogen uptake. The model includes responses to available light, water, temperature and carbon dioxide concentration as well as nitrogen fertilisation and irrigation. The model is data constrained at two sites, the Yaqui Valley, Mexico for wheat and the Southern Great Plains flux site for maize and soybean, using a robust combination of space-based vegetation data (including data from the MODIS and Landsat TM and ETM+ instruments), as well as ground-based biomass and yield measurements. We show a number of climate response scenarios, including increases in temperature and carbon dioxide concentrations as well as responses to irrigation and fertiliser application.

Breeding cassava for higher yield

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Cassava is a root crop grown for food and for starch production. Breeding progress is slowed by asexual production and high levels of heterozygosity. Germplasm resources are rich and accessible to breeders through genebanks worldwide. Breeding objectives include high root yield, yield stability, dis...

Grapevine canopy reflectance and yield

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Minden, K. A.; Philipson, W. R.

1982-01-01

Field spectroradiometric and airborne multispectral scanner data were applied in a study of Concord grapevines. Spectroradiometric measurements of 18 experimental vines were collected on three dates during one growing season. Spectral reflectance, determined at 30 intervals from 0.4 to 1.1 microns, was correlated with vine yield, pruning weight, clusters/vine, and nitrogen input. One date of airborne multispectral scanner data (11 channels) was collected over commercial vineyards, and the average radiance values for eight vineyard sections were correlated with the corresponding average yields. Although some correlations were significant, they were inadequate for developing a reliable yield prediction model.

ROI on yield data analysis systems through a business process management strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rehani, Manu; Strader, Nathan; Hanson, Jeff

2005-05-01

The overriding motivation for yield engineering is profitability. This is achieved through application of yield management. The first application is to continually reduce waste in the form of yield loss. New products, new technologies and the dynamic state of the process and equipment keep introducing new ways to cause yield loss. In response, the yield management efforts have to continually come up with new solutions to minimize it. The second application of yield engineering is to aid in accurate product pricing. This is achieved through predicting future results of the yield engineering effort. The more accurate the yield prediction, the more accurate the wafer start volume, the more accurate the wafer pricing. Another aspect of yield prediction pertains to gauging the impact of a yield problem and predicting how long that will last. The ability to predict such impacts again feeds into wafer start calculations and wafer pricing. The question then is that if the stakes on yield management are so high why is it that most yield management efforts are run like science and engineering projects and less like manufacturing? In the eighties manufacturing put the theory of constraints1 into practice and put a premium on stability and predictability in manufacturing activities, why can't the same be done for yield management activities? This line of introspection led us to define and implement a business process to manage the yield engineering activities. We analyzed the best known methods (BKM) and deployed a workflow tool to make them the standard operating procedure (SOP) for yield managment. We present a case study in deploying a Business Process Management solution for Semiconductor Yield Engineering in a high-mix ASIC environment. We will present a description of the situation prior to deployment, a window into the development process and a valuation of the benefits.

Old Star's "Rebirth" Gives Astronomers Surprises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

2005-04-01

Astronomers using the National Science Foundation's Very Large Array (VLA) radio telescope are taking advantage of a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to watch an old star suddenly stir back into new activity after coming to the end of its normal life. Their surprising results have forced them to change their ideas of how such an old, white dwarf star can re-ignite its nuclear furnace for one final blast of energy. Sakurai's Object Radio/Optical Images of Sakurai's Object: Color image shows nebula ejected thousands of years ago. Contours indicate radio emission. Inset is Hubble Space Telescope image, with contours indicating radio emission; this inset shows just the central part of the region. CREDIT: Hajduk et al., NRAO/AUI/NSF, ESO, StSci, NASA Computer simulations had predicted a series of events that would follow such a re-ignition of fusion reactions, but the star didn't follow the script -- events moved 100 times more quickly than the simulations predicted. "We've now produced a new theoretical model of how this process works, and the VLA observations have provided the first evidence supporting our new model," said Albert Zijlstra, of the University of Manchester in the United Kingdom. Zijlstra and his colleagues presented their findings in the April 8 issue of the journal Science. The astronomers studied a star known as V4334 Sgr, in the constellation Sagittarius. It is better known as "Sakurai's Object," after Japanese amateur astronomer Yukio Sakurai, who discovered it on February 20, 1996, when it suddenly burst into new brightness. At first, astronomers thought the outburst was a common nova explosion, but further study showed that Sakurai's Object was anything but common. The star is an old white dwarf that had run out of hydrogen fuel for nuclear fusion reactions in its core. Astronomers believe that some such stars can undergo a final burst of fusion in a shell of helium that surrounds a core of heavier nuclei such as carbon and oxygen. However, the

Growth and yield of shortleaf pine

Treesearch

Paul A. Murphy

1986-01-01

A survey of available growth and yield information for shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata Mill.) is given. The kinds of studies and data sources that produce this information are also evaluated, and an example of how a growth and yield model can be used to answer management questions is illustrated. Guidelines are given for using growth and yield models, and needs for...

Dynamics of yield-stress droplets: Morphology of impact craters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neufeld, Jerome; Sohr, David; Ferrari, Leo; Dalziel, Stuart

2017-11-01

Yield strength can play an important role for the dynamics of droplets impacting on surfaces, whether at the industrial or planetary scale, and can capture a zoo of impact crater morphologies, from simple parabolic craters, to more complex forms with forms with, for example, multiple rings, central peaks. Here we show that the morphology of planetary impact craters can be reproduced in the laboratory using carbopol, a transparent yield-stress fluid, as both impactor and bulk fluid. Using high-speed video photography, we characterise the universal, transient initial excavation stage of impact and show the dependence of the subsequent relaxation to final crater morphology on impactor size, impact speed and yield stress. To further interrogate our laboratory impacts, we dye our impactor to map its final distribution and use particle tracking to determine the flow fields during impact and the maximal extent of the yield surface. We characterise the flow-fields induced during impact, and the maximal extent of the yield surface, by tracking particles within the bulk fluid and map the distribution of impactor and bulk by tracing the final distribution of dyed impactor. The results of laboratory impact droplets are used to infer the properties of planetary impactors, and aid in inter.

Combined Application of Biofertilizers and Inorganic Nutrients Improves Sweet Potato Yields

PubMed Central

Mukhongo, Ruth W.; Tumuhairwe, John B.; Ebanyat, Peter; AbdelGadir, AbdelAziz H.; Thuita, Moses; Masso, Cargele

2017-01-01

Sweet potato [Ipomoea batatas (L) Lam] yields currently stand at 4.5 t ha−1 on smallholder farms in Uganda, despite the attainable yield (45–48 t ha−1) of NASPOT 11 cultivar comparable to the potential yield (45 t ha−1) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). On-farm field experiments were conducted for two seasons in the Mt Elgon High Farmlands and Lake Victoria Crescent agro-ecological zones in Uganda to determine the potential of biofertilizers, specifically arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF), to increase sweet potato yields (NASPOT 11 cultivar). Two kinds of biofertilizers were compared to different rates of phosphorus (P) fertilizer when applied with or without nitrogen (N) and potassium (K). The sweet potato response to treatments was variable across sites (soil types) and seasons, and significant tuber yield increase (p < 0.05) was promoted by biofertilizer and NPK treatments during the short-rain season in the Ferralsol. Tuber yields ranged from 12.8 to 20.1 t ha−1 in the Rhodic Nitisol (sandy-clay) compared to 7.6 to 14.9 t ha−1 in the Ferralsol (sandy-loam) during the same season. Root colonization was greater in the short-rain season compared to the long-rain season. Biofertilizers combined with N and K realized higher biomass and tuber yield than biofertilizers alone during the short-rain season indicating the need for starter nutrients for hyphal growth and root colonization of AMF. In this study, N0.25PK (34.6 t ha−1) and N0.5PK (32.9 t ha−1) resulted in the highest yield during the long and the short-rain season, respectively, but there was still a yield gap of 11.9 and 13.6 t ha−1 for the cultivar. Therefore, a combination of 90 kg N ha−1 and 100 kg K ha−1 with either 15 or 30 kg P ha−1 can increase sweet potato yield from 4.5 to >30 t ha−1. The results also show that to realize significance of AMF in nutrient depleted soils, starter nutrients should be included. PMID:28348569

Yield estimation of corn based on multitemporal LANDSAT-TM data as input for an agrometeorological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bach, Heike

1998-07-01

In order to test remote sensing data with advanced yield formation models for accuracy and timeliness of yield estimation of corn, a project was conducted for the State Ministry for Rural Environment, Food, and Forestry of Baden-Württemberg (Germany). This project was carried out during the course of the `Special Yield Estimation', a regular procedure conducted for the European Union, to more accurately estimate agricultural yield. The methodology employed uses field-based plant parameter estimation from atmospherically corrected multitemporal/multispectral LANDSAT-TM data. An agrometeorological plant-production-model is used for yield prediction. Based solely on four LANDSAT-derived estimates (between May and August) and daily meteorological data, the grain yield of corn fields was determined for 1995. The modelled yields were compared with results gathered independently within the Special Yield Estimation for 23 test fields in the upper Rhine valley. The agreement between LANDSAT-based estimates (six weeks before harvest) and Special Yield Estimation (at harvest) shows a relative error of 2.3%. The comparison of the results for single fields shows that six weeks before harvest, the grain yield of corn was estimated with a mean relative accuracy of 13% using satellite information. The presented methodology can be transferred to other crops and geographical regions. For future applications hyperspectral sensors show great potential to further enhance the results for yield prediction with remote sensing.

Argentina soybean yield model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Callis, S. L.; Sakamoto, C.

1984-01-01

A model based on multiple regression was developed to estimate soybean yields for the country of Argentina. A meteorological data set was obtained for the country by averaging data for stations within the soybean growing area. Predictor variables for the model were derived from monthly total precipitation and monthly average temperature. A trend variable was included for the years 1969 to 1978 since an increasing trend in yields due to technology was observed between these years.

HVM die yield improvement as a function of DRSEM ADC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maheshwary, Sonu; Haas, Terry; McGarvey, Steve

2010-03-01

Given the current manufacturing technology roadmap and the competitiveness of the global semiconductor manufacturing environment in conjunction with the semiconductor manufacturing market dynamics, the market place continues to demand a reduced die manufacturing cost. This continuous pressure on lowering die cost in turn drives an aggressive yield learning curve, a key component of which is defect reduction of manufacturing induced anomalies. In order to meet and even exceed line and die yield targets there is a need to revamp defect classification strategies and place a greater emphasize on increasing the accuracy and purity of the Defect Review Scanning Electron Microscope (DRSEM) Automated Defect Classification (ADC) results while placing less emphasis on the ADC results of patterned/un-patterned wafer inspection systems. The increased emphasis on DRSEM ADC results allows for a high degree of automation and consistency in the classification data and eliminates variance induced by the manufacturing staff. This paper examines the use of SEM based Auto Defect Classification in a high volume manufacturing environment as a key driver in the reduction of defect limited yields.

Temperature Increase Reduces Global Yields of Major Crops in Four Independent Estimates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhao, Chuang; Liu, Bing; Piao, Shilong; Wang, Xuhui; Lobell, David B.; Huang, Yao; Huang, Mengtian; Yao, Yitong; Bassu, Simona; Ciais, Philippe;

Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates

PubMed Central

Zhao, Chuang; Piao, Shilong; Wang, Xuhui; Lobell, David B.; Huang, Yao; Huang, Mengtian; Yao, Yitong; Bassu, Simona; Ciais, Philippe; Durand, Jean-Louis; Elliott, Joshua; Ewert, Frank; Janssens, Ivan A.; Li, Tao; Lin, Erda; Liu, Qiang; Martre, Pierre; Peng, Shushi; Wallach, Daniel; Wang, Tao; Wu, Donghai; Liu, Zhuo; Zhu, Yan; Zhu, Zaichun; Asseng, Senthold

2017-01-01

Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multimethod analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population. PMID:28811375

Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates.

PubMed

Zhao, Chuang; Liu, Bing; Piao, Shilong; Wang, Xuhui; Lobell, David B; Huang, Yao; Huang, Mengtian; Yao, Yitong; Bassu, Simona; Ciais, Philippe; Durand, Jean-Louis; Elliott, Joshua; Ewert, Frank; Janssens, Ivan A; Li, Tao; Lin, Erda; Liu, Qiang; Martre, Pierre; Müller, Christoph; Peng, Shushi; Peñuelas, Josep; Ruane, Alex C; Wallach, Daniel; Wang, Tao; Wu, Donghai; Liu, Zhuo; Zhu, Yan; Zhu, Zaichun; Asseng, Senthold

2017-08-29

Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO 2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multimethod analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.

Yield variability prediction by remote sensing sensors with different spatial resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumhálová, Jitka; Matějková, Štěpánka

2017-04-01

Currently, remote sensing sensors are very popular for crop monitoring and yield prediction. This paper describes how satellite images with moderate (Landsat satellite data) and very high (QuickBird and WorldView-2 satellite data) spatial resolution, together with GreenSeeker hand held crop sensor, can be used to estimate yield and crop growth variability. Winter barley (2007 and 2015) and winter wheat (2009 and 2011) were chosen because of cloud-free data availability in the same time period for experimental field from Landsat satellite images and QuickBird or WorldView-2 images. Very high spatial resolution images were resampled to worse spatial resolution. Normalised difference vegetation index was derived from each satellite image data sets and it was also measured with GreenSeeker handheld crop sensor for the year 2015 only. Results showed that each satellite image data set can be used for yield and plant variability estimation. Nevertheless, better results, in comparison with crop yield, were obtained for images acquired in later phenological phases, e.g. in 2007 - BBCH 59 - average correlation coefficient 0.856, and in 2011 - BBCH 59-0.784. GreenSeeker handheld crop sensor was not suitable for yield estimation due to different measuring method.

The New Surprising Behaviour of the Two 'Prototype' Blazars PKS 2155-304 and 3C 279

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Costamante, Luigi; /Stanford U., HEPL /KIPAC, Menlo Park; Aharonian, Felix

2011-11-21

Recent VHE observations have unveiled a surprising behaviour in two well-known blazars at opposite sides of the blazar sequence. PKS 2155-304 have shown for the first time in an HBL a large Compton dominance, high {gamma}-ray luminosities and a cubic relation between X-ray and VHE fluxes. 3C 279 is the first FSRQ detected at VHE. The high luminosity required to overcome the significant absorption caused by the BLR emission cannot be easily reconciled with the historical and quasi-simultaneous SED properties. Both cases shed a new light on the structure and ambient fields of blazars. Contrary to previous claims, it ismore » also shown that 3C 279 - as any FSRQ - cannot provide robust constraints on the EBL.« less

Wheat yield estimation at the farm level using TM Landsat and agrometeorological data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rudorff, B. F. T.; Batista, G. T.

1991-01-01

A model for estimating wheat yields on the farm level was developed, that integrates the Landsat TM data and agrometeorological information. Results obtained for a test site in southern Brasil for years of 1986 and 1987 show that the vegetation index derived from Landsat TM could account for the 60 to 40 percent wheat-yield variability observed between the two crop years. Compared to results using either the Landsat TM vegetation index or the agrometeorological data alone, the joint use of both types of data in a single model yielded a significant improvement.

Note: Measuring instrument of singlet oxygen quantum yield in photodynamic effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhongwei; Zhang, Pengwei; Zang, Lixin; Qin, Feng; Zhang, Zhiguo; Zhang, Hongli

2017-06-01

Using diphenylisobenzofuran (C20H14O) as a singlet oxygen (1O2) reporter, a comparison method, which can be used to measure the singlet oxygen quantum yield (ΦΔ) of the photosensitizer quantitatively, is presented in this paper. Based on this method, an automatic measuring instrument of singlet oxygen quantum yield is developed. The singlet oxygen quantum yield of the photosensitizer hermimether and aloe-emodin is measured. It is found that the measuring results are identical to the existing ones, which verifies the validity of the measuring instrument.

Primary and Secondary Yield Losses Caused by Pests and Diseases: Assessment and Modeling in Coffee

PubMed Central

Gary, Christian; Tixier, Philippe; Lechevallier, Esther

2017-01-01

The assessment of crop yield losses is needed for the improvement of production systems that contribute to the incomes of rural families and food security worldwide. However, efforts to quantify yield losses and identify their causes are still limited, especially for perennial crops. Our objectives were to quantify primary yield losses (incurred in the current year of production) and secondary yield losses (resulting from negative impacts of the previous year) of coffee due to pests and diseases, and to identify the most important predictors of coffee yields and yield losses. We established an experimental coffee parcel with full-sun exposure that consisted of six treatments, which were defined as different sequences of pesticide applications. The trial lasted three years (2013–2015) and yield components, dead productive branches, and foliar pests and diseases were assessed as predictors of yield. First, we calculated yield losses by comparing actual yields of specific treatments with the estimated attainable yield obtained in plots which always had chemical protection. Second, we used structural equation modeling to identify the most important predictors. Results showed that pests and diseases led to high primary yield losses (26%) and even higher secondary yield losses (38%). We identified the fruiting nodes and the dead productive branches as the most important and useful predictors of yields and yield losses. These predictors could be added in existing mechanistic models of coffee, or can be used to develop new linear mixed models to estimate yield losses. Estimated yield losses can then be related to production factors to identify corrective actions that farmers can implement to reduce losses. The experimental and modeling approaches of this study could also be applied in other perennial crops to assess yield losses. PMID:28046054

Primary and Secondary Yield Losses Caused by Pests and Diseases: Assessment and Modeling in Coffee.

PubMed

Cerda, Rolando; Avelino, Jacques; Gary, Christian; Tixier, Philippe; Lechevallier, Esther; Allinne, Clémentine

2017-01-01

The assessment of crop yield losses is needed for the improvement of production systems that contribute to the incomes of rural families and food security worldwide. However, efforts to quantify yield losses and identify their causes are still limited, especially for perennial crops. Our objectives were to quantify primary yield losses (incurred in the current year of production) and secondary yield losses (resulting from negative impacts of the previous year) of coffee due to pests and diseases, and to identify the most important predictors of coffee yields and yield losses. We established an experimental coffee parcel with full-sun exposure that consisted of six treatments, which were defined as different sequences of pesticide applications. The trial lasted three years (2013-2015) and yield components, dead productive branches, and foliar pests and diseases were assessed as predictors of yield. First, we calculated yield losses by comparing actual yields of specific treatments with the estimated attainable yield obtained in plots which always had chemical protection. Second, we used structural equation modeling to identify the most important predictors. Results showed that pests and diseases led to high primary yield losses (26%) and even higher secondary yield losses (38%). We identified the fruiting nodes and the dead productive branches as the most important and useful predictors of yields and yield losses. These predictors could be added in existing mechanistic models of coffee, or can be used to develop new linear mixed models to estimate yield losses. Estimated yield losses can then be related to production factors to identify corrective actions that farmers can implement to reduce losses. The experimental and modeling approaches of this study could also be applied in other perennial crops to assess yield losses.

A Theoretical Model for Estimation of Yield Strength of Fiber Metal Laminate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhat, Sunil; Nagesh, Suresh; Umesh, C. K.; Narayanan, S.

2017-08-01

The paper presents a theoretical model for estimation of yield strength of fiber metal laminate. Principles of elasticity and formulation of residual stress are employed to determine the stress state in metal layer of the laminate that is found to be higher than the stress applied over the laminate resulting in reduced yield strength of the laminate in comparison with that of the metal layer. The model is tested over 4A-3/2 Glare laminate comprising three thin aerospace 2014-T6 aluminum alloy layers alternately bonded adhesively with two prepregs, each prepreg built up of three uni-directional glass fiber layers laid in longitudinal and transverse directions. Laminates with prepregs of E-Glass and S-Glass fibers are investigated separately under uni-axial tension. Yield strengths of both the Glare variants are found to be less than that of aluminum alloy with use of S-Glass fiber resulting in higher laminate yield strength than with the use of E-Glass fiber. Results from finite element analysis and tensile tests conducted over the laminates substantiate the theoretical model.

Dose rate, mitotic cycle duration, and sensitivity of cell transitions from G1 $Yields$ S and G2 $Yields$ M to protracted gamma radiation in root meristems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Evans, L.S.; Hof, J.V.

1975-11-01

Experiments were designed to determine the relative radiosensitivity of the cell transition points of G1 $Yields$ S and G2 $Yields$ M in root meristems of several plant species. Label and mitotic indices and microspectrophotometry were used to measure the proportions of cells in each mitotic cycle stage in root meristems after protracted gamma radiation. The criterion of radiosensitivity was the dose rate needed to produce a tissue with less than 1 percent cells in S and none in M after 3 days of continuous exposure. The results show that DNA is the primary radiation target in proliferative root meristems andmore » that the cycle duration stipulates the time interval of vulnerability. In each species, nonrandom reproducible cell proportions were established with 2C:4C:8C amounts of nuclear DNA after 3 days of exposure. Roots of Helianthus annuus, Crepis capillaris, and Tradescantia clone 02 had 80 percent cells with a 2C amount of DNA and 20 percent had a 4C amount of DNA. In these species the transition point of G1 $Yields$ S was more radiosensitive than G2 $Yields$ M. Roots of Pisum sativum and Triticum aestivum had cell proportions at 2C:4C:8C amounts of DNA in frequencies of 0.10 to 0.20:0.40 to 0.60:0.30 to 0.40. In these two species 0.30 to 0.40 cells underwent radiation-induced endoreduplication that resulted from a rapid inhibition of cell transit from G2 $Yields$ M and a slower impairment of G1 $Yields$ S. Cells increased from 2C to 4C and from 4C to 8C amounts of DNA during irradiation. The proportions of nuclei with 2C:4C:8C amounts of DNA were dependent in part upon the relative radiosensitivity of the G1 $Yields$ S and G2 $Yields$ M control points. The data show the relative radiosensitivity of the transition points from G1 $Yields$ S and from G2 $Yields$ M was species specific and unrelated to the cycle duration and mean nuclear DNA content of the plant species. (auth)« less

Effects of No-Till on Yields as Influenced by Crop and Environmental Factors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Toliver, Dustin K.; Larson, James A.; Roberts, Roland K.

Th is research evaluated diff erences in yields and associated downside risk from using no-till and tillage practices. Yields from 442 paired tillage experiments across the United States were evaluated with respect to six crops and environmental factors including geographic location, annual precipitation, soil texture, and time since conversion from tillage to no-till. Results indicated that mean yields for sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench] and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) with no-till were greater than with tillage. In addition, no-till tended to produce similar or greater mean yields than tillage for crops grown on loamy soils in the Southern Seaboard andmore » Mississippi Portal regions. A warmer and more humid climate and warmer soils in these regions relative to the Heartland, Basin and Range, and Fruitful Rim regions appear to favor no-till on loamy soils. With the exception of corn (Zea mays L.) and cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) in the Southern Seaboard region, no-till performed poorly on sandy soils. Crops grown in the Southern Seaboard were less likely to have lower no-till yields than tillage yields on loamy soils and thus had lower downside yield risk than other farm resource regions. Consistent with mean yield results, soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] and wheat grown on sandy soils in the Southern Seaboard region using no-till had larger downside yield risks than when produced with no-till on loamy soils. Th e key fi ndings of this study support the hypothesis that soil and climate factors impact no-till yields relative to tillage yields and may be an important factor infl uencing risk and expected return and the adoption of the practice by farmers.« less

Simulation of corn yields and parameters uncertainties analysis in Hebei and Sichuang, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, A.; Xue, Y.; Hartman, M. D.; Chandran, A.; Qiu, B.; Liu, Y.

2016-12-01

Corn is one of most important agricultural production in China. Research on the impacts of climate change and human activities on corn yields is important in understanding and mitigating the negative effects of environmental factors on corn yields and maintaining the stable corn production. Using climatic data, including daily temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation from 1948 to 2010, soil properties, observed corn yields, and farmland management information, corn yields in Sichuang and Hebei Provinces of China in the past 63 years were simulated using the Daycent model, and the results was evaluated using Root mean square errors, bias, simulation efficiency, and standard deviation. The primary climatic factors influencing corn yields were examined, the uncertainties of climatic factors was analyzed, and the uncertainties of human activity parameters were also studied by changing fertilization levels and cultivated ways. The results showed that: (1) Daycent model is capable to simulate corn yields in Sichuang and Hebei provinces of China. Observed and simulated corn yields have the similar increasing trend with time. (2) The minimum daily temperature is the primary factor influencing corn yields in Sichuang. In Hebei Province, daily temperature, precipitation and wind speed significantly affect corn yields.(3) When the global warming trend of original data was removed, simulated corn yields were lower than before, decreased by about 687 kg/hm2 from 1992 to 2010; When the fertilization levels, cultivated ways were increased and decreased by 50% and 75%, respectively in the Schedule file in Daycent model, the simulated corn yields increased by 1206 kg/hm2 and 776 kg/hm2, respectively, with the enhancement of fertilization level and the improvement of cultivated way. This study provides a scientific base for selecting a suitable fertilization level and cultivated way in corn fields in China.

Metabolomic prediction of yield in hybrid rice.

PubMed

Xu, Shizhong; Xu, Yang; Gong, Liang; Zhang, Qifa

2016-10-01

Rice (Oryza sativa) provides a staple food source for more than 50% of the world's population. An increase in yield can significantly contribute to global food security. Hybrid breeding can potentially help to meet this goal because hybrid rice often shows a considerable increase in yield when compared with pure-bred cultivars. We recently developed a marker-guided prediction method for hybrid yield and showed a substantial increase in yield through genomic hybrid breeding. We now have transcriptomic and metabolomic data as potential resources for prediction. Using six prediction methods, including least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP), stochastic search variable selection, partial least squares, and support vector machines using the radial basis function and polynomial kernel function, we found that the predictability of hybrid yield can be further increased using these omic data. LASSO and BLUP are the most efficient methods for yield prediction. For high heritability traits, genomic data remain the most efficient predictors. When metabolomic data are used, the predictability of hybrid yield is almost doubled compared with genomic prediction. Of the 21 945 potential hybrids derived from 210 recombinant inbred lines, selection of the top 10 hybrids predicted from metabolites would lead to a ~30% increase in yield. We hypothesize that each metabolite represents a biologically built-in genetic network for yield; thus, using metabolites for prediction is equivalent to using information integrated from these hidden genetic networks for yield prediction. © 2016 The Authors The Plant Journal © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

What limits the yield of levoglucosan during fast pyrolysis of cellulose?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Proano-Aviles, Juan

The pyrolysis of cellulose to form levoglucosan is investigated in this study. Although the stoichiometric yield of levoglucosan from the pyrolysis of cellulose is expected to be 100%, only about 60 wt.% yields are reported in the literature. Several possible reasons for this limitation are investigated through experiments in micropyrolyzers and computational studies on the depolymerization of cellulose. Heat and mass transfer limitations in an experimental apparatus is one possible limitation on the yield of levoglucosan. Repolymerization of condensed phase reaction intermediates could prevent the formation and release of volatile levoglucosan. Thermohydrolysis of pyrolyzing cellulose to form non-volatile and thermally unstable glucose has also been proposed as a mechanism that reduces levoglucosan yields. Secondary reactions in the gas phase were also investigated to explain limitations on levoglucosan yields. Population balance models were developed to test ideas on how cellulose depolymerized to form levoglucosan at less than stoichiometric yields. These models were supported with chemical kinetic data obtained from transient pyrolysis experiments. Under carefully controlled experimental conditions, no evidence was found for heat and mass transfer effects limiting levoglucosan yields to 60 wt.% nor do secondary reactions in the condensed- or gas-phases appear to offer a satisfactory explanation. Based on modeling results, it appears levoglucosan-forming reaction rates that decrease as oligosaccharide chain length decreases is the most plausible explanation for limitations on levoglucosan yield from cellulose.

Impacts of El Nino Southern Oscillation on the Global Yields of Major Crops

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iizumi, Toshichika; Luo, Jing-Jia; Challinor, Andrew J.; Sakurai, Gen; Yokozawa, Masayuki; Sakuma, Hirofumi; Brown, Molly Elizabeth; Yamagata, Toshio

2014-01-01

The monitoring and prediction of climate-induced variations in crop yields, production and export prices in major food-producing regions have become important to enable national governments in import-dependent countries to ensure supplies of affordable food for consumers. Although the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) often affects seasonal temperature and precipitation, and thus crop yields in many regions, the overall impacts of ENSO on global yields are uncertain. Here we present a global map of the impacts of ENSO on the yields of major crops and quantify its impacts on their global-mean yield anomalies. Results show that El Nino likely improves the global-mean soybean yield by 2.15.4 but appears to change the yields of maize, rice and wheat by -4.3 to +0.8. The global-mean yields of all four crops during La Nina years tend to be below normal (-4.5 to 0.0).Our findings highlight the importance of ENSO to global crop production.

Aquifer-yield continuum as a guide and typology for science-based groundwater management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierce, Suzanne A.; Sharp, John M.; Guillaume, Joseph H. A.; Mace, Robert E.; Eaton, David J.

2013-03-01

Groundwater availability is at the core of hydrogeology as a discipline and, simultaneously, the concept is the source of ambiguity for management and policy. Aquifer yield has undergone multiple definitions resulting in a range of scientific methods to calculate and model availability reflecting the complexity of combined scientific, management, policy, and stakeholder processes. The concept of an aquifer-yield continuum provides an approach to classify groundwater yields along a spectrum, from non-use through permissive sustained, sustainable, maximum sustained, safe, permissive mining to maximum mining yields, that builds on existing literature. Additionally, the aquifer-yield continuum provides a systems view of groundwater availability to integrate physical and social aspects in assessing management options across aquifer settings. Operational yield describes the candidate solutions for operational or technical implementation of policy, often relating to a consensus yield that incorporates human dimensions through participatory or adaptive governance processes. The concepts of operational and consensus yield address both the social and the technical nature of science-based groundwater management and governance.

Virtual Volatility, an Elementary New Concept with Surprising Stock Market Consequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prange, Richard; Silva, A. Christian

2006-03-01

Textbook investors start by predicting the future price distribution, PDF, of a candidate stock (or portfolio) at horizon T, e.g. a year hence. A (log)normal PDF with center (=drift =expected return) μT and width (=volatility) σT is often assumed on Central Limit Theorem grounds, i.e. by a random walk of daily (log)price increments δs. The standard deviation, stdev, of historical (ex post) δs `s is usually a fair predictor of the coming year's (ex ante) stdev(δs) = σdaily, but the historical mean E(δs) at best roughly limits the true, to be predicted, drift by μtrueT˜ μhistT ± σhistT. Textbooks take a PDF with σ ˜ σdaily and μ as somehow known, as if accurate predictions of μ were possible. It is elementary and presumably new to argue that an average of PDF's over a range of μ values should be taken, e.g. an average over forecasts by different analysts. We estimate that this leads to a PDF with a `virtual' volatility σ ˜ 1.3σdaily. It is indeed clear that uncertainty in the value of the expected gain parameter increases the risk of investment in that security by most measures, e. g. Sharpe's ratio μT/σT will be 30% smaller because of this effect. It is significant and surprising that there are investments which benefit from this 30% virtual increase in the volatility

Estimating bottomland hardwood growth and yield

Treesearch

1989-01-01

Most bottomland hardwoods grow on very productive sites-site index 70 or more. A fully stocked immature stand (table 1, fig. 1) requires tending throughout its life. The goal is to attain a stand of approximately 50 high quality trees of commercial species per acre at maturity. Releasing these crop trees can result in the cumulative yield of 2,000-4,000 board feet per...

A surprise at the bottom of the main sequence: Rapid rotation and NO H-alpha emission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Basri, Gibor; Marcy, Geoffrey W.

1995-01-01

We report Kech Observatory high-resolution echelle spectra from 640-850 nm for eight stars near the faint end of the main sequence. These spectra are the highest resolution spectra of such late-type stars, and clearly resolve the TiO, VO, and atomic lines. The sample includes the field brown-dwarf candidate, BRI 0021-0214 (M9.5+). Very unexpectedly, it shows the most rapid rotation in the entire samples, v sin i approximately 40 km/s, which is 20x faster than typical field nonemission M stars. Equally surprising is that BRI 0021 exhibits no emission or absorptionat H-alpha. We argue that this absence is not simply due to its cool photosphere, but that stellar activity declines in a fundamental way at the end of the main sequence. As it is the first very late M dwarf observed at high spectral resolution, BRI 0021 may be signaling a qualitative change in the angular momentum loss rate among the lowest mass stars. Conventionally, its rapid rotation would have marked BRI 0021 as very young, consistent with the selection effect which arises if the latest-type dwarfs are really brown dwarfs on cooling curves. In any case, it is unprecedented to find no sign of stellar activity in such a rapidly rotating convective star. We also discuss the possible conflict between this observation and the extremely strong H-alpha seen in another very cool star, PC 0025+0447. Extrapolation of M-L relations for BRI 0021 yields M approximately 0.065 solar mass, and the other sample objects have expected masses near the H-burning limit. These include two Pleiades brown-dwarf candidates, four field M6 dwarfs and one late-type T Tauri star. The two Pleiades M6 dwarfs have v sin i of 26 and 37 km/s, H-alpha in emission, and radial velocities consistent with Pleiades M6 dwarfs have v sin i of 26 and 37 km/s, H-alpha in emission, and radial velocities consistent with Pleiades membership. Similarly, the late-type T Tauri star has v sin i approximately 30 km/s and H alpha emission indicate of its

Redefining yield gaps at various spatial scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, K.; Fishman, R.; Norstrom, A. V.; Diekert, F. K.; Engstrom, G.; Gars, J.; McCarney, G. R.; Sjostedt, M.

2013-12-01

Recent research has highlighted the prevalence of 'yield gaps' around the world and the importance of closing them for global food security. However, the traditional concept of yield gap -defined as the difference between observed and optimal yield under biophysical conditions - omit relevant socio-economic and ecological constraints and thus offer limited guidance on potential policy interventions. This paper proposes alternative definitions of yield gaps by incorporating rich, high resolution, national and sub-national agricultural datasets. We examine feasible efforts to 'close yield gaps' at various spatial scales and across different socio-economic and ecological domains.

Argentina wheat yield model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Callis, S. L.; Sakamoto, C.

1984-01-01

Five models based on multiple regression were developed to estimate wheat yields for the five wheat growing provinces of Argentina. Meteorological data sets were obtained for each province by averaging data for stations within each province. Predictor variables for the models were derived from monthly total precipitation, average monthly mean temperature, and average monthly maximum temperature. Buenos Aires was the only province for which a trend variable was included because of increasing trend in yield due to technology from 1950 to 1963.

Argentina corn yield model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Callis, S. L.; Sakamoto, C.

1984-01-01

A model based on multiple regression was developed to estimate corn yields for the country of Argentina. A meteorological data set was obtained for the country by averaging data for stations within the corn-growing area. Predictor variables for the model were derived from monthly total precipitation, average monthly mean temperature, and average monthly maximum temperature. A trend variable was included for the years 1965 to 1980 since an increasing trend in yields due to technology was observed between these years.

Evidence for Ni-56 yields Co-56 yields Fe-56 decay in type Ia supernovae

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuchner, Marc J.; Kirshner, Robert P.; Pinto, Philip A.; Leibundgut, Bruno

1994-01-01

In the prevailing picture of Type Ia supernovae (SN Ia), their explosive burning produces Ni-56, and the radioactive decay chain Ni-56 yields Co-56 yields Fe-56 powers the subsequent emission. We test a central feature of this theory by measuring the relative strengths of a (Co III) emission feature near 5900 A and a (Fe III) emission feature near 4700 A. We measure 38 spectra from 13 SN Ia ranging from 48 to 310 days after maximum light. When we compare the observations with a simple multilevel calculation, we find that the observed Fe/Co flux ratio evolves as expected when the Fe-56/Co-56 abundance ratio follows from Ni-56 yields Co-56 yields Fe-56 decay. From this agreement, we conclude that the cobalt and iron atoms we observe through SN Ia emission lines are produced by the radioactive decay of Ni-56, just as predicted by a wide range of models for SN Ia explosions.

Atomic Oxygen Erosion Yield Prediction for Spacecraft Polymers in Low Earth Orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Banks, Bruce A.; Backus, Jane A.; Manno, Michael V.; Waters, Deborah L.; Cameron, Kevin C.; deGroh, Kim K.

2009-01-01

The ability to predict the atomic oxygen erosion yield of polymers based on their chemistry and physical properties has been only partially successful because of a lack of reliable low Earth orbit (LEO) erosion yield data. Unfortunately, many of the early experiments did not utilize dehydrated mass loss measurements for erosion yield determination, and the resulting mass loss due to atomic oxygen exposure may have been compromised because samples were often not in consistent states of dehydration during the pre-flight and post-flight mass measurements. This is a particular problem for short duration mission exposures or low erosion yield materials. However, as a result of the retrieval of the Polymer Erosion and Contamination Experiment (PEACE) flown as part of the Materials International Space Station Experiment 2 (MISSE 2), the erosion yields of 38 polymers and pyrolytic graphite were accurately measured. The experiment was exposed to the LEO environment for 3.95 years from August 16, 2001 to July 30, 2005 and was successfully retrieved during a space walk on July 30, 2005 during Discovery s STS-114 Return to Flight mission. The 40 different materials tested (including Kapton H fluence witness samples) were selected specifically to represent a variety of polymers used in space as well as a wide variety of polymer chemical structures. The MISSE 2 PEACE Polymers experiment used carefully dehydrated mass measurements, as well as accurate density measurements to obtain accurate erosion yield data for high-fluence (8.43 1021 atoms/sq cm). The resulting data was used to develop an erosion yield predictive tool with a correlation coefficient of 0.895 and uncertainty of +/-6.3 10(exp -25)cu cm/atom. The predictive tool utilizes the chemical structures and physical properties of polymers to predict in-space atomic oxygen erosion yields. A predictive tool concept (September 2009 version) is presented which represents an improvement over an earlier (December 2008) version.

Impacts of drought on grape yields in Western Cape, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Araujo, Julio A.; Abiodun, Babatunde J.; Crespo, Olivier

2016-01-01

Droughts remain a threat to grape yields in South Africa. Previous studies on the impacts of climate on grape yield in the country have focussed on the impact of rainfall and temperature separately; meanwhile, grape yields are affected by drought, which is a combination of rainfall and temperature influences. The present study investigates the impacts of drought on grape yields in the Western Cape (South Africa) at district and farm scales. The study used a new drought index that is based on simple water balance (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index; hereafter, SPEI) to identify drought events and used a correlation analysis to identify the relationship between drought and grape yields. A crop simulation model (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator, APSIM) was applied at the farm scale to investigate the role of irrigation in mitigating the impacts of drought on grape yield. The model gives a realistic simulation of grape yields. The Western Cape has experienced a series of severe droughts in the past few decades. The severe droughts occurred when a decrease in rainfall occurred simultaneously with an increase in temperature. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) appears to be an important driver of drought severity in the Western Cape, because most of the severe droughts occurred in El Niño years. At the district scale, the correlation between drought index and grape yield is weak ( r≈-0.5), but at the farm scale, it is strong ( r≈-0.9). This suggests that many farmers are able to mitigate the impacts of drought on grape yields through irrigation management. At the farm scale, where the impact of drought on grape yields is high, poor yield years coincide with moderate or severe drought periods. The APSIM simulation, which gives a realistic simulation of grape yields at the farm scale, suggests that grape yields become more sensitive to spring and summer droughts in the absence of irrigation. Results of this study may guide decision-making on

The yield of adequate and conclusive fine-needle aspiration results in thyroid nodules is uniform across functional and goiter types.

PubMed

Liel, Y

1999-01-01

Relatively little is known about the cytological characteristics of hyperfunctioning (hot) thyroid nodules. Concern has been expressed that fine-needle aspiration (FNA) identifies hot nodules as follicular tumors or indeterminate, and as a consequence patients could be unnecessarily referred for surgery. Between 1979 and 1996, thyroid FNA was performed on 829 patients. Result of thyroid scan was available in 326; 69 (21%) patients had hot, and 257 (79%) had warm or cold thyroid nodules. Nodules in each of these major groups were divided into 2 subgroups: clinically solitary nodules and dominant nodules in multinodular goiters (MNG). The frequencies of adequate versus inadequate FNA samples, and of conclusive versus indeterminate FNA results were determined separately for each of the groups and subgroups. In addition, patients with hot nodules and overt hyperthyroidism were identified and evaluated separately. Bivariate analyses were performed for the frequency of adequate versus inadequate smears and conclusive versus indeterminate results between hot, toxic, and cold-warm nodules, and between solitary nodules and MNG. The frequency of adequate aspirations and conclusive results in the various groups and subgroups was found to be statistically indistinguishable. In conclusion, the yield of adequate samples and the rate of conclusive results of FNA in thyroid nodules is similar, irrespective of the functional state or of goiter presentation. Hot thyroid nodules do not seem to produce an increase in the rate of inadequate or indeterminate FNA results, and therefore, do not affect the overall performance of thyroid FNA.

Atomic Oxygen Erosion Yield Predictive Tool for Spacecraft Polymers in Low Earth Orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bank, Bruce A.; de Groh, Kim K.; Backus, Jane A.

2008-01-01

A predictive tool was developed to estimate the low Earth orbit (LEO) atomic oxygen erosion yield of polymers based on the results of the Polymer Erosion and Contamination Experiment (PEACE) Polymers experiment flown as part of the Materials International Space Station Experiment 2 (MISSE 2). The MISSE 2 PEACE experiment accurately measured the erosion yield of a wide variety of polymers and pyrolytic graphite. The 40 different materials tested were selected specifically to represent a variety of polymers used in space as well as a wide variety of polymer chemical structures. The resulting erosion yield data was used to develop a predictive tool which utilizes chemical structure and physical properties of polymers that can be measured in ground laboratory testing to predict the in-space atomic oxygen erosion yield of a polymer. The properties include chemical structure, bonding information, density and ash content. The resulting predictive tool has a correlation coefficient of 0.914 when compared with actual MISSE 2 space data for 38 polymers and pyrolytic graphite. The intent of the predictive tool is to be able to make estimates of atomic oxygen erosion yields for new polymers without requiring expensive and time consumptive in-space testing.

Global Agriculture Yields and Conflict under Future Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rising, J.; Cane, M. A.

2013-12-01

Aspects of climate have been shown to correlate significantly with conflict. We investigate a possible pathway for these effects through changes in agriculture yields, as predicted by field crop models (FAO's AquaCrop and DSSAT). Using satellite and station weather data, and surveyed data for soil and management, we simulate major crop yields across all countries between 1961 and 2008, and compare these to FAO and USDA reported yields. Correlations vary by country and by crop, from approximately .8 to -.5. Some of this range in crop model performance is explained by crop varieties, data quality, and other natural, economic, and political features. We also quantify the ability of AquaCrop and DSSAT to simulate yields under past cycles of ENSO as a proxy for their performance under changes in climate. We then describe two statistical models which relate crop yields to conflict events from the UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict dataset. The first relates several preceding years of predicted yields of the major grain in each country to any conflict involving that country. The second uses the GREG ethnic group maps to identify differences in predicted yields between neighboring regions. By using variation in predicted yields to explain conflict, rather than actual yields, we can identify the exogenous effects of weather on conflict. Finally, we apply precipitation and temperature time-series under IPCC's A1B scenario to the statistical models. This allows us to estimate the scale of the impact of future yields on future conflict. Centroids of the major growing regions for each country's primary crop, based on USDA FAS consumption. Correlations between simulated yields and reported yields, for AquaCrop and DSSAT, under the assumption that no irrigation, fertilization, or pest control is used. Reported yields are the average of FAO yields and USDA FAS yields, where both are available.

High-resolution, regional-scale crop yield simulations for the Southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stack, D. H.; Kafatos, M.; Medvigy, D.; El-Askary, H. M.; Hatzopoulos, N.; Kim, J.; Kim, S.; Prasad, A. K.; Tremback, C.; Walko, R. L.; Asrar, G. R.

2012-12-01

Over the past few decades, there have been many process-based crop models developed with the goal of better understanding the impacts of climate, soils, and management decisions on crop yields. These models simulate the growth and development of crops in response to environmental drivers. Traditionally, process-based crop models have been run at the individual farm level for yield optimization and management scenario testing. Few previous studies have used these models over broader geographic regions, largely due to the lack of gridded high-resolution meteorological and soil datasets required as inputs for these data intensive process-based models. In particular, assessment of regional-scale yield variability due to climate change requires high-resolution, regional-scale, climate projections, and such projections have been unavailable until recently. The goal of this study was to create a framework for extending the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) crop model for use at regional scales and analyze spatial and temporal yield changes in the Southwestern United States (CA, AZ, and NV). Using the scripting language Python, an automated pipeline was developed to link Regional Climate Model (RCM) output with the APSIM crop model, thus creating a one-way nested modeling framework. This framework was used to combine climate, soil, land use, and agricultural management datasets in order to better understand the relationship between climate variability and crop yield at the regional-scale. Three different RCMs were used to drive APSIM: OLAM, RAMS, and WRF. Preliminary results suggest that, depending on the model inputs, there is some variability between simulated RCM driven maize yields and historical yields obtained from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Furthermore, these simulations showed strong non-linear correlations between yield and meteorological drivers, with critical threshold values for some of the inputs (e.g. minimum and

The role of climatic variables in winter cereal yields: a retrospective analysis.

PubMed

Luo, Qunying; Wen, Li

2015-02-01

This study examined the effects of observed climate including [CO2] on winter cereal [winter wheat (Triticum aestivum), barley (Hordeum vulgare) and oat (Avena sativa)] yields by adopting robust statistical analysis/modelling approaches (i.e. autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average, generalised addition model) based on long time series of historical climate data and cereal yield data at three locations (Moree, Dubbo and Wagga Wagga) in New South Wales, Australia. Research results show that (1) growing season rainfall was significantly, positively and non-linearly correlated with crop yield at all locations considered; (2) [CO2] was significantly, positively and non-linearly correlated with crop yields in all cases except wheat and barley yields at Wagga Wagga; (3) growing season maximum temperature was significantly, negatively and non-linearly correlated with crop yields at Dubbo and Moree (except for barley); and (4) radiation was only significantly correlated with oat yield at Wagga Wagga. This information will help to identify appropriate management adaptation options in dealing with the risk and in taking the opportunities of climate change.

[Winter wheat yield gap between field blocks based on comparative performance analysis].

PubMed

Chen, Jian; Wang, Zhong-Yi; Li, Liang-Tao; Zhang, Ke-Feng; Yu, Zhen-Rong

2008-09-01

Based on a two-year household survey data, the yield gap of winter wheat in Quzhou County of Hebei Province, China in 2003-2004 was studied through comparative performance analysis (CPA). The results showed that there was a greater yield gap (from 4.2 to 7.9 t x hm(-2)) between field blocks, with a variation coefficient of 0.14. Through stepwise forward linear multiple regression, it was found that the yield model with 8 selected variables could explain 63% variability of winter wheat yield. Among the variables selected, soil salinity, soil fertility, and irrigation water quality were the most important limiting factors, accounting for 52% of the total yield gap. Crop variety was another important limiting factor, accounting for 14%; while planting date, fertilizer type, disease and pest, and water press accounted for 7%, 14%, 10%, and 3%, respectively. Therefore, besides soil and climate conditions, management practices occupied the majority of yield variability in Quzhou County, suggesting that the yield gap could be reduced significantly through optimum field management.

Statistical Evaluations of Variations in Dairy Cows’ Milk Yields as a Precursor of Earthquakes

PubMed Central

Yamauchi, Hiroyuki; Hayakawa, Masashi; Asano, Tomokazu; Ohtani, Nobuyo; Ohta, Mitsuaki

2017-01-01

Simple Summary There are many reports of abnormal changes occurring in various natural systems prior to earthquakes. Unusual animal behavior is one of these abnormalities; however, there are few objective indicators and to date, reliability has remained uncertain. We found that milk yields of dairy cows decreased prior to an earthquake in our previous case study. In this study, we examined the reliability of decreases in milk yields as a precursor for earthquakes using long-term observation data. In the results, milk yields decreased approximately three weeks before earthquakes. We have come to the conclusion that dairy cow milk yields have applicability as an objectively observable unusual animal behavior prior to earthquakes, and dairy cows respond to some physical or chemical precursors of earthquakes. Abstract Previous studies have provided quantitative data regarding unusual animal behavior prior to earthquakes; however, few studies include long-term, observational data. Our previous study revealed that the milk yields of dairy cows decreased prior to an extremely large earthquake. To clarify whether the milk yields decrease prior to earthquakes, we examined the relationship between earthquakes of various magnitudes and daily milk yields. The observation period was one year. In the results, cross-correlation analyses revealed a significant negative correlation between earthquake occurrence and milk yields approximately three weeks beforehand. Approximately a week and a half beforehand, a positive correlation was revealed, and the correlation gradually receded to zero as the day of the earthquake approached. Future studies that use data from a longer observation period are needed because this study only considered ten earthquakes and therefore does not have strong statistical power. Additionally, we compared the milk yields with the subionospheric very low frequency/low frequency (VLF/LF) propagation data indicating ionospheric perturbations. The results showed

Regional crop gross primary production and yield estimation using fused Landsat-MODIS data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, M.; Kimball, J. S.; Maneta, M. P.; Maxwell, B. D.; Moreno, A.

2017-12-01

Accurate crop yield assessments using satellite-based remote sensing are of interest for the design of regional policies that promote agricultural resiliency and food security. However, the application of current vegetation productivity algorithms derived from global satellite observations are generally too coarse to capture cropland heterogeneity. Merging information from sensors with reciprocal spatial and temporal resolution can improve the accuracy of these retrievals. In this study, we estimate annual crop yields for seven important crop types -alfalfa, barley, corn, durum wheat, peas, spring wheat and winter wheat over Montana, United States (U.S.) from 2008 to 2015. Yields are estimated as the product of gross primary production (GPP) and a crop-specific harvest index (HI) at 30 m spatial resolution. To calculate GPP we used a modified form of the MOD17 LUE algorithm driven by a 30 m 8-day fused NDVI dataset constructed by blending Landsat (5 or 7) and MODIS Terra reflectance data. The fused 30-m NDVI record shows good consistency with the original Landsat and MODIS data, but provides better spatiotemporal information on cropland vegetation growth. The resulting GPP estimates capture characteristic cropland patterns and seasonal variations, while the estimated annual 30 m crop yield results correspond favorably with county-level crop yield data (r=0.96, p<0.05). The estimated crop yield performance was generally lower, but still favorable in relation to field-scale crop yield surveys (r=0.42, p<0.01). Our methods and results are suitable for operational applications at regional scales.

Yield of Unthinned Yellow-Poplar

Treesearch

Donald E. Beck; Lino Della-Bianca

1970-01-01

Cubic-foot and board-foot yields of unthinned yellow-poplar (Liriodendron Tulipiferi L.) stands are described in relation to stand age, site index, and number of trees per acre. The yield tables are based on analysis of diameter distributions and height-diameter relationships obtained from 141 natural, unthinned yellow-poplar stands in the...

Anaerobic digestion of spring and winter wheat: Comparison of net energy yields.

PubMed

Rincón, Bárbara; Heaven, Sonia; Salter, Andrew M; Banks, Charles J

2016-10-14

Anaerobic digestion of wheat was investigated under batch conditions. The article compares the potential net energy yield between a winter wheat (sown in the autumn) and a spring wheat (sown in the spring) grown in the same year and harvested at the same growth stage in the same farm. The spring wheat had a slightly higher biochemical methane potential and required lower energy inputs in cultivation, but produced a lower dry biomass yield per hectare, which resulted in winter wheat providing the best overall net energy yield. The difference was small; both varieties gave a good net energy yield. Spring sowing may also offer the opportunity for growing an additional over-winter catch crop for spring harvest, thus increasing the overall biomass yield per hectare, with both crops being potential digester feedstocks.

Water limits to closing yield gaps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Kyle Frankel; Rulli, Maria Cristina; Garrassino, Francesco; Chiarelli, Davide; Seveso, Antonio; D'Odorico, Paolo

2017-01-01

Agricultural intensification is often seen as a suitable approach to meet the growing demand for agricultural products and improve food security. It typically entails the use of fertilizers, new cultivars, irrigation, and other modern technology. In regions of the world affected by seasonal or chronic water scarcity, yield gap closure is strongly dependent on irrigation (blue water). Global yield gap assessments have often ignored whether the water required to close the yield gap is locally available. Here we perform a gridded global analysis (10 km resolution) of the blue water consumption that is needed annually to close the yield gap worldwide and evaluate the associated pressure on renewable freshwater resources. We find that, to close the yield gap, human appropriation of freshwater resources for irrigation would have to increase at least by 146%. Most study countries would experience at least a doubling in blue water requirement, with 71% of the additional blue water being required by only four crops - maize, rice, soybeans, and wheat. Further, in some countries (e.g., Algeria, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, and Yemen) the total volume of blue water required for yield gap closure would exceed sustainable levels of freshwater consumption (i.e., 40% of total renewable surface and groundwater resources).

Overexpression of pyruvate decarboxylase in the yeast Hansenula polymorpha results in increased ethanol yield in high-temperature fermentation of xylose.

PubMed

Ishchuk, Olena P; Voronovsky, Andriy Y; Stasyk, Oleh V; Gayda, Galina Z; Gonchar, Mykhailo V; Abbas, Charles A; Sibirny, Andriy A

2008-11-01

Improvement of xylose fermentation is of great importance to the fuel ethanol industry. The nonconventional thermotolerant yeast Hansenula polymorpha naturally ferments xylose to ethanol at high temperatures (48-50 degrees C). Introduction of a mutation that impairs ethanol reutilization in H. polymorpha led to an increase in ethanol yield from xylose. The native and heterologous (Kluyveromyces lactis) PDC1 genes coding for pyruvate decarboxylase were expressed at high levels in H. polymorpha under the control of the strong constitutive promoter of the glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase gene (GAPDH). This resulted in increased pyruvate decarboxylase activity and improved ethanol production from xylose. The introduction of multiple copies of the H. polymorpha PDC1 gene driven by the strong constitutive promoter led to a 20-fold increase in pyruvate decarboxylase activity and up to a threefold elevation of ethanol production.

Strategy for continuous improvement in IC manufacturability, yield, and reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dreier, Dean J.; Berry, Mark; Schani, Phil; Phillips, Michael; Steinberg, Joe; DePinto, Gary

1993-01-01

Continual improvements in yield, reliability and manufacturability measure a fab and ultimately result in Total Customer Satisfaction. A new organizational and technical methodology for continuous defect reduction has been established in a formal feedback loop, which relies on yield and reliability, failed bit map analysis, analytical tools, inline monitoring, cross functional teams and a defect engineering group. The strategy requires the fastest detection, identification and implementation of possible corrective actions. Feedback cycle time is minimized at all points to improve yield and reliability and reduce costs, essential for competitiveness in the memory business. Payoff was a 9.4X reduction in defectivity and a 6.2X improvement in reliability of 256 K fast SRAMs over 20 months.

Average M shell fluorescence yields for elements with 70≤Z≤92

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kahoul, A.; Deghfel, B.; Aylikci, V.; Aylikci, N. K.; Nekkab, M.

2015-03-01

The theoretical, experimental and analytical methods for the calculation of average M-shell fluorescence yield (ω¯M ) of different elements are very important because of the large number of their applications in various areas of physical chemistry and medical research. In this paper, the bulk of the average M-shell fluorescence yield measurements reported in the literature, covering the period 1955 to 2005 are interpolated by using an analytical function to deduce the empirical average M-shell fluorescence yield in the atomic range of 70≤Z≤92. The results were compared with the theoretical and fitted values reported by other authors. Reasonable agreement was typically obtained between our result and other works.

Application of wheat yield model to United States and India. [Great Plains

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feyerherm, A. M. (Principal Investigator)

1977-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. The wheat yield model was applied to the major wheat-growing areas of the US and India. In the US Great Plains, estimates from the winter and spring wheat models agreed closely with USDA-SRS values in years with the lowest yields, but underestimated in years with the highest yields. Application to the Eastern Plains and Northwest indicated the importance of cultural factors, as well as meteorological ones in the model. It also demonstrated that the model could be used, in conjunction with USDA-SRRS estimates, to estimate yield losses due to factors not included in the model, particularly diseases and freezes. A fixed crop calendar for India was built from a limited amount of available plot data from that country. Application of the yield model gave measurable evidence that yield variation from state to state was due to different mixes of levels of meteorological and cultural factors.

Preliminary results on yield and CO2 fluxes when using alternate wetting and drying on different varieties of European rice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oliver, Viktoria; Monaco, Stefano; Volante, Andrea; Cochrane, Nicole; Gennaro, Massimo; Orasen, Gabriele; Valè, Giampiero; Price, Adam; Arn Teh, Yit

2016-04-01

potential, PAR) were collected concomitantly. Above and belowground biomass were determined by destructively harvesting at the end of the growing season. Belowground biomass was estimated by manually extracting roots from 30 cm deep soil cores and aboveground biomass estimated by collecting and weighing the rachis, grain and straw on a 1 metre linear section from every variety of rice. Overall, there was no significant effect between AWD and PF systems on rough grain production (863 and 822 g DM m-2) or straw yield (776 and 813 g DM m-2) for PF and AWD, respectively. There was also no significant difference for net ecosystem exchange (NEE) (-10.83 ± 1.10 and -9.71 ± 1.17 mg C m-2 s-1) or ecosystem respiration (Re) (6.86 ± 0.63 and 6.26 ± 0.61 mg C m-2 s-1), with the exception of one French variety (Gageron). This cultivar showed a significant increase in NEE under AWD (PF = -13.61 ± 2.89 and AWD = -17.63 ± 5.33 mg C m-2 s-1). The results from this study highlight that this novel water management strategy for European rice can have multiple environmental benefits without sacrificing yield.

Constraints on the yields of the first supernovae in the Universe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cayrel, Roger

The study of the chemical composition of the most primitive stars of the galactic halo has been made possible with the help of large surveys aimed at finding such stars, and by powerful new instruments, as the Keck telescopes, the Subaru telescope, and the ESO Very Large Telescope. The atmospheres of these primitive stars possess, per hydrogen atom, from 1/1000th to 1/10000th less supernovae-made elements than the Sun, and reflect the yields of the first supernovae. It was once expected that these yields would show a larger scatter than those in the more metal-rich Population II stars, which have been enriched by many more supernovae explosions than the earlier generations. If we leave aside one class of objects, the Carbon-Enhanced Metal-Poor (CEMP) stars, which is the topic of another talk at this conference, a rather well-defined set of abundance ratios emerge for C to Zn amongst the most primitive population, with a scatter that is surprisingly small. The quality of the high-resolution spectroscopic data is such that the observed level of scatter in the measured elemental abundances for these species is no longer limited by accuracy of the observations, nor by other errors inherent to the analysis of the data. By way of contrast, amongst the neutron-capture elements produced by the r-process, at a given metallicity a spread reaching a factor of over 1000 exists for elements such as Ba. The stable portion of the r-process pattern observed in such stars is the second peak (Z = 56 to 72), in which the relative abundances of these elements in very metal-poor stars are almost indistinguishable from their inferred proportions in solar-system material. Recent observations have permitted the determination of the abundances of uranium, tho- rium, and lead produced by the r-process in extremely metal-poor stars, and indicate that lead is mainly produced by radioactive decay of the actinides (as opposed to other direct channels). In addition, the observed U/Th ratio has

Climate-Driven Crop Yield and Yield Variability and Climate Change Impacts on the U.S. Great Plains Agricultural Production.

PubMed

Kukal, Meetpal S; Irmak, Suat

2018-02-22

Climate variability and trends affect global crop yields and are characterized as highly dependent on location, crop type, and irrigation. U.S. Great Plains, due to its significance in national food production, evident climate variability, and extensive irrigation is an ideal region of investigation for climate impacts on food production. This paper evaluates climate impacts on maize, sorghum, and soybean yields and effect of irrigation for individual counties in this region by employing extensive crop yield and climate datasets from 1968-2013. Variability in crop yields was a quarter of the regional average yields, with a quarter of this variability explained by climate variability, and temperature and precipitation explained these in singularity or combination at different locations. Observed temperature trend was beneficial for maize yields, but detrimental for sorghum and soybean yields, whereas observed precipitation trend was beneficial for all three crops. Irrigated yields demonstrated increased robustness and an effective mitigation strategy against climate impacts than their non-irrigated counterparts by a considerable fraction. The information, data, and maps provided can serve as an assessment guide for planners, managers, and policy- and decision makers to prioritize agricultural resilience efforts and resource allocation or re-allocation in the regions that exhibit risk from climate variability.

Simultaneous achievement of high ethanol yield and titer in Clostridium thermocellum

DOE PAGES

Tian, Liang; Papanek, Beth; Olson, Daniel G.; ...

2016-06-02

Background Biofuel production from plant cell walls offers the potential for sustainable and economically attractive alternatives to petroleum-based products. Fuels from cellulosic biomass are particularly promising, but would benefit from lower processing costs. Clostridium thermocellum can rapidly solubilize and ferment cellulosic biomass, making it a promising candidate microorganism for consolidated bioprocessing for biofuel production, but increases in product yield and titer are still needed. Results We started with an engineered C. thermocellum strain where the central metabolic pathways to products other than ethanol had been deleted. After two stages of adaptive evolution, an evolved strain was selected with improved yieldmore » and titer. On chemically defined medium with crystalline cellulose as substrate, the evolved strain produced 22.4 ± 1.4 g/L ethanol from 60 g/L cellulose. Moreover, the resulting yield was about 0.39 gETOH/gGluc eq, which is 75 % of the maximum theoretical yield. Genome resequencing, proteomics, and biochemical analysis were used to examine differences between the original and evolved strains. Conclusions A two step selection method successfully improved the ethanol yield and the titer. Finaly, this evolved strain has the highest ethanol yield and titer reported to date for C. thermocellum, and is an important step in the development of this microbe for industrial applications.« less

Rx for low cash yields.

PubMed

Tobe, Chris

2003-10-01

Certain strategies can offer not-for-profit hospitals potentially greater investment yields while maintaining stability and principal safety. Treasury inflation-indexed securities can offer good returns, low volatility, and inflation protection. "Enhanced cash" strategies offer liquidity and help to preserve capital. Stable value "wrappers" allow hospitals to pursue higher-yielding fixed-income securities without an increase in volatility.

Absolute 1* quantum yields for the ICN A state by diode laser gain versus absorption spectroscopy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hess, Wayne P.; Leone, Stephen R.

1987-01-01

Absolute I* quantum yields were measured as a function of wavelength for room temperature photodissociation of the ICN A state continuum. The temperature yields are obtained by the technique of time-resolved diode laser gain-versus-absorption spectroscopy. Quantum yields are evaluated at seven wavelengths from 248 to 284 nm. The yield at 266 nm is 66.0 +/- 2% and it falls off to 53.4 +/- 2% and 44.0 +/- 4% at 284 and 248 respectively. The latter values are significantly higher than those obtained by previous workers using infrared fluorescence. Estimates of I* quantum yields obtained from analysis of CN photofragment rotational distributions, as discussed by other workers, are in good agreement with the I* yields. The results are considered in conjunction with recent theoretical and experimental work on the CN rotational distributions and with previous I* yield results.

Ultraviolet surprise: Efficient soft x-ray high-harmonic generation in multiply ionized plasmas.

PubMed

Popmintchev, Dimitar; Hernández-García, Carlos; Dollar, Franklin; Mancuso, Christopher; Pérez-Hernández, Jose A; Chen, Ming-Chang; Hankla, Amelia; Gao, Xiaohui; Shim, Bonggu; Gaeta, Alexander L; Tarazkar, Maryam; Romanov, Dmitri A; Levis, Robert J; Gaffney, Jim A; Foord, Mark; Libby, Stephen B; Jaron-Becker, Agnieszka; Becker, Andreas; Plaja, Luis; Murnane, Margaret M; Kapteyn, Henry C; Popmintchev, Tenio

2015-12-04

High-harmonic generation is a universal response of matter to strong femtosecond laser fields, coherently upconverting light to much shorter wavelengths. Optimizing the conversion of laser light into soft x-rays typically demands a trade-off between two competing factors. Because of reduced quantum diffusion of the radiating electron wave function, the emission from each species is highest when a short-wavelength ultraviolet driving laser is used. However, phase matching--the constructive addition of x-ray waves from a large number of atoms--favors longer-wavelength mid-infrared lasers. We identified a regime of high-harmonic generation driven by 40-cycle ultraviolet lasers in waveguides that can generate bright beams in the soft x-ray region of the spectrum, up to photon energies of 280 electron volts. Surprisingly, the high ultraviolet refractive indices of both neutral atoms and ions enabled effective phase matching, even in a multiply ionized plasma. We observed harmonics with very narrow linewidths, while calculations show that the x-rays emerge as nearly time-bandwidth-limited pulse trains of ~100 attoseconds. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Immune Profiling of Pregnant Toxoplasma-Infected US and Colombia Patients Reveals Surprising Impacts of Infection on Peripheral Blood Cytokines

PubMed Central

Pernas, Lena; Ramirez, Raymund; Holmes, Tyson H.; Montoya, José G.; Boothroyd, John C.

2014-01-01

In North America (NA) and Europe, the majority of toxoplasmosis cases are benign and generally asymptomatic, whereas in South America (SA) toxoplasmosis is associated with much more severe symptoms in adults and congenitally infected children. The reasons for these differences remain unknown; currently, there is little information from patients in either region on how the immune system responds to infection with Toxoplasma gondii. Here, we report the relative abundance of 51 serum cytokines from acute and chronic toxoplasmosis cohorts of pregnant women from the United States, where approximately one-half of clinical isolates are Type II, and Colombia, where clinical isolates are generally “atypical” or Type I-like strains. Surprisingly, the results showed notably lower levels of 23 cytokines in acutely infected patients from the United States, relative to uninfected US controls. In acutely infected Colombian patients, however, only 8 cytokine levels differed detectably with 4 being lower and 4 higher relative to uninfected controls. Strikingly, there were also differences in the cytokine profiles of the chronically infected patients relative to uninfected controls in the US cohort. Hence, Toxoplasma appears to specifically impact levels of circulating cytokines, and our results may partly explain region-specific differences in the clinical spectrum of toxoplasmosis. PMID:24664173

ENSO and PDO-related climate variability impacts on Midwestern United States crop yields.

PubMed

Henson, Chasity; Market, Patrick; Lupo, Anthony; Guinan, Patrick

2017-05-01

An analysis of crop yields for the state of Missouri was completed to determine if an interannual or multidecadal variability existed as a result of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Corn and soybean yields were recorded in kilograms per hectare for each of the six climate regions of Missouri. An analysis using the Mokhov "method of cycles" demonstrated interannual, interdecadal, and multidecadal variations in crop yields. Cross-spectral analysis was used to determine which region was most impacted by ENSO and PDO influenced seasonal (April-September) temperature and precipitation. Interannual (multidecadal) variations found in the spectral analysis represent a relationship to ENSO (PDO) phase, while interdecadal variations represent a possible interaction between ENSO and PDO. Average crop yields were then calculated for each combination of ENSO and PDO phase, displaying a pronounced increase in corn and soybean yields when ENSO is warm and PDO is positive. Climate regions 1, 2, 4, and 6 displayed significant differences (p value of 0.10 or less) in yields between El Niño and La Niña years, representing 55-70 % of Missouri soybean and corn productivity, respectively. Final results give the opportunity to produce seasonal predictions of corn and soybean yields, specific to each climate region in Missouri, based on the combination of ENSO and PDO phases.

Coppice Sycamore Yields Through 9 Years

Treesearch

Harvey E. Kennedy

1980-01-01

Cutting cycle and spacing did not significantly affect sycamore dry-weight yields from ages 5-9 years (1974-l 978). Longer cutting cycles usually did give higher yields. Dry-weight yields ranged from 2886 lb per acre (3233 kg/ha) per year in the 1 year, 4x5 ft (1.2 x 1.5 m) spacing to 4541 lb (5088 kg/ha) in the 4-year, 4x5 ft s,pacing. Survival averaged 67 percent...

Estimating rice yield from MODIS-Landsat fusion data in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, C. R.; Chen, C. F.; Nguyen, S. T.

2017-12-01

Rice production monitoring with remote sensing is an important activity in Taiwan due to official initiatives. Yield estimation is a challenge in Taiwan because rice fields are small and fragmental. High spatiotemporal satellite data providing phenological information of rice crops is thus required for this monitoring purpose. This research aims to develop data fusion approaches to integrate daily Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Landsat data for rice yield estimation in Taiwan. In this study, the low-resolution MODIS LST and emissivity data are used as reference data sources to obtain the high-resolution LST from Landsat data using the mixed-pixel analysis technique, and the time-series EVI data were derived the fusion of MODIS and Landsat spectral band data using STARFM method. The LST and EVI simulated results showed the close agreement between the LST and EVI obtained by the proposed methods with the reference data. The rice-yield model was established using EVI and LST data based on information of rice crop phenology collected from 371 ground survey sites across the country in 2014. The results achieved from the fusion datasets compared with the reference data indicated the close relationship between the two datasets with the correlation coefficient (R2) of 0.75 and root mean square error (RMSE) of 338.7 kgs, which were more accurate than those using the coarse-resolution MODIS LST data (R2 = 0.71 and RMSE = 623.82 kgs). For the comparison of total production, 64 towns located in the west part of Taiwan were used. The results also confirmed that the model using fusion datasets produced more accurate results (R2 = 0.95 and RMSE = 1,243 tons) than that using the course-resolution MODIS data (R2 = 0.91 and RMSE = 1,749 tons). This study demonstrates the application of MODIS-Landsat fusion data for rice yield estimation at the township level in Taiwan. The results obtained from the methods used in this study could be useful to policymakers

Quantum Yields in Mixed-Conifer Forests and Ponderosa Pine Plantations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, L.; Marshall, J. D.; Zhang, J.

2008-12-01

Most process-based physiological models require canopy quantum yield of photosynthesis as a starting point to simulate carbon sequestration and subsequently gross primary production (GPP). The quantum yield is a measure of photosynthetic efficiency expressed in moles of CO2 assimilated per mole of photons absorbed; the process is influenced by environmental factors. In the summer 2008, we measured quantum yields on both sun and shade leaves for four conifer species at five sites within Mica Creek Experimental Watershed (MCEW) in northern Idaho and one conifer species at three sites in northern California. The MCEW forest is typical of mixed conifer stands dominated by grand fir (Abies grandis (Douglas ex D. Don) Lindl.). In northern California, the three sites with contrasting site qualities are ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa C. Lawson var. ponderosa) plantations that were experimentally treated with vegetation control, fertilization, and a combination of both. We found that quantum yields in MCEW ranged from ~0.045 to ~0.075 mol CO2 per mol incident photon. However, there were no significant differences between canopy positions, or among sites or tree species. In northern California, the mean value of quantum yield of three sites was 0.051 mol CO2/mol incident photon. No significant difference in quantum yield was found between canopy positions, or among treatments or sites. The results suggest that these conifer species maintain relatively consistent quantum yield in both MCEW and northern California. This consistency simplifies the use of a process-based model to accurately predict forest productivity in these areas.

Tribology behavior on scratch tests: Effects of yield strength

DOE PAGES

Feng, Biao

2017-03-07

In this paper, a three-dimensional (3D) scratch model is proposed to investigate the effects of yield strength of both coatings and substrates. With the help of combined Coulomb and plastic friction, the obtained results comprehensively interpret the experimental phenomena in most metals that with the growth of hardness after heat treatment the scratch friction coefficient (SFC) increases. This interpretation could not be done before. Scratch tests on the surface with or without the coating are discussed. Without the coating the SFC increases due to the decrease of the area with plastic slippage and/or the increase of friction stress during themore » increase of the yield strength in the material. With a softer substrate the friction stress decreases but the SFC increases, which is caused by the growth of the entire contact area and surface deformation. Conversely, with a stronger substrate the SFC decreases due to an intensified plastic slippage In conclusion, the obtained results pave a new way to understanding the effects of yield strength on scratch tests, interpret experimental phenomena, and should be helpful for an optimum design in experiments.« less

Tribology behavior on scratch tests: Effects of yield strength

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Feng, Biao

In this paper, a three-dimensional (3D) scratch model is proposed to investigate the effects of yield strength of both coatings and substrates. With the help of combined Coulomb and plastic friction, the obtained results comprehensively interpret the experimental phenomena in most metals that with the growth of hardness after heat treatment the scratch friction coefficient (SFC) increases. This interpretation could not be done before. Scratch tests on the surface with or without the coating are discussed. Without the coating the SFC increases due to the decrease of the area with plastic slippage and/or the increase of friction stress during themore » increase of the yield strength in the material. With a softer substrate the friction stress decreases but the SFC increases, which is caused by the growth of the entire contact area and surface deformation. Conversely, with a stronger substrate the SFC decreases due to an intensified plastic slippage In conclusion, the obtained results pave a new way to understanding the effects of yield strength on scratch tests, interpret experimental phenomena, and should be helpful for an optimum design in experiments.« less

Factors that determine the level of the yield strength and the return of the yield-point elongation in low-alloy ferrite-martensite steels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fonstein, N.; Kapustin, M.; Pottore, N.; Gupta, I.; Yakubovsky, O.

2007-09-01

The results of laboratory investigations of dual-phase steels with different contents of carbon and alloying elements after the controlled cooling from the two-phase field and the final low-temperature tempering are presented. It is shown that the ratio of the yield strength to the tensile strength of dual-phase steels, just as the return of the yield-point elongation, depends on the volume fraction of martensite, temperature of the martensite transformation of the austenite component, quenching stresses, concentration of carbon in ferrite, and the temperature of the final tempering.

Sustainable-yield estimation for the Sparta Aquifer in Union County, Arkansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hays, Phillip D.

2000-01-01

Options for utilizing alternative sources of water to alleviate overdraft from the Sparta aquifer and ensure that the aquifer can continue to provide abundant water of excellent quality for the future are being evaluated by water managers in Union County. Sustainable yield is a critical element in identifying and designing viable water supply alternatives. With sustainable yield defined and a knowledge of total water demand in an area, any unmet demand can be calculated. The ground-water flow model of the Sparta aquifer was used to estimate sustainable yield using an iterative approach. The Sparta aquifer is a confined aquifer of regional importance that comprises a sequence of unconsolidated sand units that are contained within the Sparta Sand. Currently, the rate of withdrawal in some areas greatly exceeds the rate of recharge to the aquifer and considerable water-level declines have occurred. Ground-water flow model results indicate that the aquifer cannot continue to meet growing water-use demands indefinitely and that water levels will drop below the top of the primary producing sand unit in Union County (locally termed the El Dorado sand) by 2008 if current water-use trends continue. Declines of that magnitude will initiate dewatering of the El Dorado sand. The sustainable yield of the aquifer was calculated by targeting a specified minimum acceptable water level within Union County and varying Union County pumpage within the model to achieve the target water level. Selection of the minimum target water level for sustainable-yield estimation was an important criterion for the modeling effort. In keeping with the State Critical Ground-Water Area designation criteria and the desire of water managers in Union County to improve aquifer conditions and bring the area out of the Critical Ground-Water Area designation, the approximate altitude of the top of the Sparta Sand in central Union County was used as the minimum water level target for estimation of

Asymmetric Yield Function Based on the Stress Invariants for Pressure Sensitive Metals

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jeong Wahn Yoon; Yanshan Lou; Jong Hun Yoon

A general asymmetric yield function is proposed with dependence on the stress invariants for pressure sensitive metals. The pressure sensitivity of the proposed yield function is consistent with the experimental result of Spitzig and Richmond (1984) for steel and aluminum alloys while the asymmetry of the third invariant is preserved to model strength differential (SD) effect of pressure insensitive materials. The proposed yield function is transformed in the space of the stress triaxaility, the von Mises stress and the normalized invariant to theoretically investigate the possible reason of the SD effect. The proposed plasticity model is further extended to characterizemore » the anisotropic behavior of metals both in tension and compression. The extension of the yield function is realized by introducing two distinct fourth-order linear transformation tensors of the stress tensor for the second and third invariants, respectively. The extended yield function reasonably models the evolution of yield surfaces for a zirconium clock-rolled plate during in-plane and through-thickness compression reported by Plunkett et al. (2007). The extended yield function is also applied to describe the orthotropic behavior of a face-centered cubic metal of AA 2008-T4 and two hexagonal close-packed metals of high-purity-titanium and AZ31 magnesium alloy. The orthotropic behavior predicted by the generalized model is compared with experimental results of these metals. The comparison validates that the proposed yield function provides sufficient predictability on SD effect and anisotropic behavior both in tension and compression. When it is necessary to consider r-value anisotropy, the proposed function is efficient to be used with nonassociated flow plasticity by introducing a separate plastic potential for the consideration of r-values as shown in Stoughton & Yoon (2004, 2009).« less

The effects of planting methods and head pruning on seed yield and yield components of medicinal pumpkin (Cucurbita pepo subsp. Pepo convar. Pepo var. styriaca) at low temperature areas.

PubMed

Bahrami, R Nikkhah; Khodadadi, M; Pirivatlo, S Piry; Hassanpanah, D

2009-03-15

This experiment carried out to evaluate the effects of planting methods (seed sowing and transplanting) and head pruning (no pruning, pruning after 12th node and pruning after 16th node) on yield and yield components such as number of branches (sub-branches) per plant, fruits per plant, growth, fruit size, weight of fresh fruit, weight of seeds per fruit, number of seeds per fruit and seed yield of medicinal pumpkin. The experiment was carried out based of factorial experiment with Randomized Completely Blocks Design (RCBD) by three replications in Ardabil Agricultural and Natural Resources Researches Station at 2007. Seedlings were grown in heated greenhouse. When the climatic condition became suitable and seedlings were at the four leaves stage, both seeds and seedlings were planted at the same time in the farm. Maintenance operations were done during the growth season. Head pruning treatments were done the forecast time. The results showed that the planting methods had significant effect on the number of ripen fruits per plant, fruits diameter, weight of seeds per fruit, weight of 1000 seeds and seed yield and had no significant effect on the other traits. Also the results indicated that head pruning treatments had significant effects on the number of branches per plant, growth and seed yield and no significant on the other traits. In this experiment the most seed yield (997.8 kg ha(-1)) obtained from transplanting method with head pruning after 12th node and the least seed yield obtained from control.

Assessing Sediment Yield and the Effect of Best Management Practices on Sediment Yield Reduction for Tutuila Island, American Samoa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leta, O. T.; Dulai, H.; El-Kadi, A. I.

2017-12-01

Upland soil erosion and sedimentation are the main threats for riparian and coastal reef ecosystems in Pacific islands. Here, due to small size of the watersheds and steep slope, the residence time of rainfall runoff and its suspended load is short. Fagaalu bay, located on the island of Tutuila (American Samoa) has been identified as a priority watershed, due to degraded coral reef condition and reduction of stream water quality from heavy anthropogenic activity yielding high nutrients and sediment loads to the receiving water bodies. This study aimed to estimate the sediment yield to the Fagaalu stream and assess the impact of Best Management Practices (BMP) on sediment yield reduction. For this, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied, calibrated, and validated for both daily streamflow and sediment load simulation. The model also estimated the sediment yield contributions from existing land use types of Fagaalu and identified soil erosion prone areas for introducing BMP scenarios in the watershed. Then, three BMP scenarios, such as stone bund, retention pond, and filter strip were treated on bare (quarry area), agricultural, and shrub land use types. It was found that the bare land with quarry activity yielded the highest annual average sediment yield of 133 ton per hectare (t ha-1) followed by agriculture (26.1 t ha-1) while the lowest sediment yield of 0.2 t ha-1 was estimated for the forested part of the watershed. Additionally, the bare land area (2 ha) contributed approximately 65% (207 ha) of the watershed's sediment yield, which is 4.0 t ha-1. The latter signifies the high impact as well as contribution of anthropogenic activity on sediment yield. The use of different BMP scenarios generally reduced the sediment yield to the coastal reef of Fagaalu watershed. However, treating the quarry activity area with stone bund showed the highest sediment yield reduction as compared to the other two BMP scenarios. This study provides an estimate

Global evidence of positive impacts of freshwater biodiversity on fishery yields.

PubMed

Brooks, Emma Grace Elizabeth; Holland, Robert Alan; Darwall, William Robert Thomas; Eigenbrod, Felix; Tittensor, Derek

2016-05-01

An often-invoked benefit of high biodiversity is the provision of ecosystem services. However, evidence for this is largely based on data from small-scale experimental studies of relationships between biodiversity and ecosystem function that may have little relevance to real-world systems. Here, large-scale biodiversity datasets are used to test the relationship between the yield of inland capture fisheries and species richness from 100 countries. Inland waters of Africa, Europe and parts of Asia. A multimodel inference approach was used to assess inland fishery yields at the country level against species richness, waterside human population, area, elevation and various climatic variables, to determine the relative importance of species richness to fisheries yields compared with other major large-scale drivers. Secondly, the mean decadal variation in fishery yields at the country level for 1981-2010 was regressed against species richness to assess if greater diversity reduces the variability in yields over time. Despite a widespread reliance on targeting just a few species of fish, freshwater fish species richness is highly correlated with yield ( R 2  = 0.55) and remains an important and statistically significant predictor of yield once other macroecological drivers are controlled for. Freshwater richness also has a significant negative relationship with variability of yield over time in Africa ( R 2  = 0.16) but no effect in Europe. The management of inland waters should incorporate the protection of freshwater biodiversity, particularly in countries with the highest-yielding inland fisheries as these also tend to have high freshwater biodiversity. As these results suggest a link between biodiversity and stable, high-yielding fisheries, an important win-win outcome may be possible for food security and conservation of freshwater ecosystems. However, findings also highlight the urgent need for more data to fully understand and monitor the contribution of

Projecting crop yield in northern high latitude area.

PubMed

Matsumura, Kanichiro

2014-01-01

validation periods is used. To show the reproducing projection between observed and calculated values, the root mean squared error for skill score (RMSE SS) with the persistence model serving as the reference model is used. The persistence model is used as a benchmark. The results show that SADs near USA border show better RMSE SS values and mode 3's time coefficients can be a useful predictor especially for inland province such as Manitoba. Among 27 Canadian Prairie's SADs with perfect yield data, 67% of Alberta's SADs, 86% of Manitoba's SADs, and 77% of Saskatchewan's SADs can get positive skill scores. In each SAD, future yield projection is calculated applying predictors in 2013 for the obtained eight sets of models and eight sets of forecasted values in 2013 are averaged and a near future projection result is obtained. Series of outputs including calculated forecasted yield value in each SAD is provided by smart phone application. A system for providing climatic condition for a point with a permission of Climatic Research Unit - University of East Anglia and for obtaining patent is proposed. There are several patented systems similar to the system proposed in this paper. However, these patents are different in essence. The system proposed in this paper consists of two parts. First part is to estimate equations using time series data. The second part is to acquire and apply latest climatic conditions for obtained equations and calculate future projection. If the procedure is refined and devices are originally developed, series of idea can be patented. For future work, crop index, Hokkaido is also introduced.

Impact of Thiamethoxam Seed Treatment on Growth and Yield of Rice, Oryza sativa.

PubMed

Lanka, S K; Senthil-Nathan, S; Blouin, D J; Stout, M J

2017-04-01

Neonicotinoid seed treatments are widely used in agriculture. In rice, Oryza sativa L., in the southern United States, neonicotinoid seed treatments are used to manage early-season populations of the rice water weevil, Lissorhoptrus oryzophilus Kuschel. In addition to their effects on pests, neonicotinoid seed treatments may benefit crop plants directly by increasing plant growth or altering plant responses to stresses. As part of an effort to assess the overall benefits of thiamethoxam seed treatment in rice, rice emergence, growth, and yield were evaluated. In a growth chamber, rice emergence from the soil was 1-2 d more rapid from treated than untreated seeds. These laboratory results were supported by field experiments that revealed higher stand counts from thiamethoxam-treated plots than from untreated plots. Yields from thiamethoxam treatments were no higher than those from untreated plots under conditions in which weevil larvae were absent, a result inconsistent with the hypothesis that thiamethoxam imparts direct yield benefits. In a series of field experiments conducted to compare the relationship between weevil larval densities and rice yields in plots treated with several rates of thiamethoxam or chlorantraniliprole (another widely used seed treatment insecticide), the relationship between weevil density and yield did not differ markedly among both seed treatments. Overall yields from both seed treatments did not differ significantly, despite more effective control in chlorantraniliprole-treated plots. These results provide strong support for effect of thiamethoxam on early-season growth of rice, but only weak support for its direct effect on rice yields. © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Yield of bedrock wells in the Nashoba terrane, central and eastern Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeSimone, Leslie A.; Barbaro, Jeffrey R.

2012-01-01

The yield of bedrock wells in the fractured-bedrock aquifers of the Nashoba terrane and surrounding area, central and eastern Massachusetts, was investigated with analyses of existing data. Reported well yield was compiled for 7,287 wells from Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection and U.S. Geological Survey databases. Yield of these wells ranged from 0.04 to 625 gallons per minute. In a comparison with data from 103 supply wells, yield and specific capacity from aquifer tests were well correlated, indicating that reported well yield was a reasonable measure of aquifer characteristics in the study area. Statistically significant relations were determined between well yield and a number of cultural and hydrogeologic factors. Cultural variables included intended water use, well depth, year of construction, and method of yield measurement. Bedrock geology, topography, surficial geology, and proximity to surface waters were statistically significant hydrogeologic factors. Yield of wells was higher in areas of granites, mafic intrusive rocks, and amphibolites than in areas of schists and gneisses or pelitic rocks; higher in valleys and low-slope areas than on hills, ridges, or high slopes; higher in areas overlain by stratified glacial deposits than in areas overlain by till; and higher in close proximity to streams, ponds, and wetlands than at greater distances from these surface-water features. Proximity to mapped faults and to lineaments from aerial photographs also were related to well yield by some measures in three quadrangles in the study area. Although the statistical significance of these relations was high, their predictive power was low, and these relations explained little of the variability in the well-yield data. Similar results were determined from a multivariate regression analysis. Multivariate regression models for the Nashoba terrane and for a three-quadrangle subarea included, as significant variables, many of the cultural and

Brazil soybean yield covariance model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Callis, S. L.; Sakamoto, C.

1984-01-01

A model based on multiple regression was developed to estimate soybean yields for the seven soybean-growing states of Brazil. The meteorological data of these seven states were pooled and the years 1975 to 1980 were used to model since there was no technological trend in the yields during these years. Predictor variables were derived from monthly total precipitation and monthly average temperature.

Two important publications on Douglas fir yields

Treesearch

R.E. McArdle; W.H. Meyer

1931-01-01

Two publications, resulting from years of study by the Forest Experiment Station of the growth and yield of Douglas fir forests, have just been distributed. Both are of signal value to foresters and timberland owners of western Oregon and Washington who are interested in knowing what wood volume forest lands of various qualities are capable of producing under both...

Growth and Yield of Thinned Yellow-Poplar

Treesearch

Donald E. Beck; Lino Della-Bianca

1972-01-01

Diameter distributions and yields for various combinations of site index, age, and density for unthinned and largely undisturbed stands of yellow-poplar (Liriodendron tulipifera L. ) have been presented by McGee and Della-Bianca (1967) and Beck and Della-Bianca (1970). Their results were based on the initial measurements of a network of permanent sample plots...

A new economic assessment index for the impact of climate change on grain yield

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Wenjie; Chou, Jieming; Feng, Guolin

2007-03-01

The impact of climate change on agriculture has received wide attention by the scientific community. This paper studies how to assess the grain yield impact of climate change, according to the climate change over a long time period in the future as predicted by a climate system model. The application of the concept of a traditional “yield impact of meteorological factor (YIMF)” or “yield impact of weather factor” to the grain yield assessment of a decadal or even a longer timescale would be suffocated at the outset because the YIMF is for studying the phenomenon on an interannual timescale, and it is difficult to distinguish between the trend caused by climate change and the one resulting from changes in non-climatic factors. Therefore, the concept of the yield impact of climatic change (YICC), which is defined as the difference in the per unit area yields (PUAY) of a grain crop under a changing and an envisaged invariant climate conditions, is presented in this paper to assess the impact of global climate change on grain yields. The climatic factor has been introduced into the renowned economic Cobb-Douglas model, yielding a quantitative assessment method of YICC using real data. The method has been tested using the historical data of Northeast China, and the results show that it has an encouraging application outlook.

Average M shell fluorescence yields for elements with 70≤Z≤92

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kahoul, A., E-mail: ka-abdelhalim@yahoo.fr; LPMRN laboratory, Department of Materials Science, Faculty of Sciences and Technology, Mohamed El Bachir El Ibrahimi University, Bordj-Bou-Arreridj 34030; Deghfel, B.

2015-03-30

The theoretical, experimental and analytical methods for the calculation of average M-shell fluorescence yield (ω{sup ¯}{sub M}) of different elements are very important because of the large number of their applications in various areas of physical chemistry and medical research. In this paper, the bulk of the average M-shell fluorescence yield measurements reported in the literature, covering the period 1955 to 2005 are interpolated by using an analytical function to deduce the empirical average M-shell fluorescence yield in the atomic range of 70≤Z≤92. The results were compared with the theoretical and fitted values reported by other authors. Reasonable agreement wasmore » typically obtained between our result and other works.« less

Are seismic hazard assessment errors and earthquake surprises unavoidable?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kossobokov, Vladimir

2013-04-01

Why earthquake occurrences bring us so many surprises? The answer seems evident if we review the relationships that are commonly used to assess seismic hazard. The time-span of physically reliable Seismic History is yet a small portion of a rupture recurrence cycle at an earthquake-prone site, which makes premature any kind of reliable probabilistic statements about narrowly localized seismic hazard. Moreover, seismic evidences accumulated to-date demonstrate clearly that most of the empirical relations commonly accepted in the early history of instrumental seismology can be proved erroneous when testing statistical significance is applied. Seismic events, including mega-earthquakes, cluster displaying behaviors that are far from independent or periodic. Their distribution in space is possibly fractal, definitely, far from uniform even in a single segment of a fault zone. Such a situation contradicts generally accepted assumptions used for analytically tractable or computer simulations and complicates design of reliable methodologies for realistic earthquake hazard assessment, as well as search and definition of precursory behaviors to be used for forecast/prediction purposes. As a result, the conclusions drawn from such simulations and analyses can MISLEAD TO SCIENTIFICALLY GROUNDLESS APPLICATION, which is unwise and extremely dangerous in assessing expected societal risks and losses. For example, a systematic comparison of the GSHAP peak ground acceleration estimates with those related to actual strong earthquakes, unfortunately, discloses gross inadequacy of this "probabilistic" product, which appears UNACCEPTABLE FOR ANY KIND OF RESPONSIBLE SEISMIC RISK EVALUATION AND KNOWLEDGEABLE DISASTER PREVENTION. The self-evident shortcomings and failures of GSHAP appeals to all earthquake scientists and engineers for an urgent revision of the global seismic hazard maps from the first principles including background methodologies involved, such that there becomes: (a) a